Full text of H.16 Capital Market Developments : August 16, 1971
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• L.5.8 Confidential (F.R.) — • DECONTROLLED AFTER SIX MONTHS MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Capital Markets Section, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D. C. L - r - * INDEX Developments in the Corporate and Municipal Bond Markets Capital Market Yields Capital Market Volume Stock Market Mortgage Market SYMBOLS: e Estimate p Preliminary r n.a. Revised Not available TABLE 1: Yields, Volume and Reception WEEK ENDING: YIELDS MOODY'S SEASONED NEW ISSUE 1 Aaa CORPORATE BOND MARKET VOLUME;2 GROSS OFFERINGS 1971 - July 2 9 16 23 30 7.89 7.87 7.82 7.90 8.07 7.63 7.65 7.64 7.63 7.66 310 99 238 654 22 le Aug. 6 13 20 8.02 7.97 n. a. 7.69 7.71 n.a. 247 194 275e WEEK ENDING: YIELDS MOODY'S BOND BUYER SEASONED SEASONED 20 Aaa BOND INDEX PER CENT SOLD BY END OF WEEK BONDS SCHEDULED WITHIN 28 DAYS 88 86 58 84 80e n.a. n.a. n. a. n.a. n. a. 100 100 MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET VOLUME 2 PER CENT GROSS SOLD BY END OF WEEK OFFERINGS n.a. n. a. n.a. BONDS SCHEDULED WITHIN 28 DAYS 1971 - July 2 9 16 23 30 5.90 5.70 5.70 5.65 5.80 6.19 6.06 6.03 5.97 6.05 331 633 347 564 276 88 86 76 83 75 1,219 916 1,059 829 804 Aug. 6 13 20 5.88 5.80 n.a. 6.07 6.03 n.a. 203 574 26 5e 72 80 n.a. 1,076 588 1 Derived by adjusting to a Aaa basis, new issues of publicly-offered corporate bonds with call protection, rated A, Aa, or Aaa by Moody's Investors Service (except serial and convertible issues, offerings of natural gas pipeline and foreign companies, and • bonds guaranteed by the Federal Government.) 2 Millions of dollars unless otherwise indicated. Note: See footnotes to Table 3 \ TABLE 2: Details on.Inventories ' DATIC OFFERED CORPORATE BONDS IN SYNDICATE END OF LATEST WEEK ORIGINAL RATING AND ISSUER COUPON YIELD CALL PROTECTION ' AMOUNT. (MIL. $) ESTIMATED PROPORTION SOLD None CORPORATE BONDS RELEASED FROM SYNDICATE DURING LATEST WEEK ORIGINAL INCREASE RATING AND ESTIMATED PROISSUER COUPON YIELD IN YIELD CALL PROT. PORTION RELEASED DATE OFFERED AMOUNT INVENTORIES 1 MUNICIPALS BLUE LIST IN SYNDICATE DATE 1971 - July August 16 23 30 6 13 CORPORATES IN SYNDICATE 475 561 582 115 152 160 116 107 57 551? 542 115 168 0 0 N.C. - No call protection. 1 m i l U n S th! i" ° which is daily average ° f ^ 0 l l a ^ S ' B l u e L i S t i s d a i l y average for week ended Friday, except for latest week of three days ended Wednesday. All other figures are as of Friday. TABLE 3: High Grade Bond Yields NEW CORPORATE Aaa i DATE MOODY'S SEASONED CORPORATE Aaa 2 U.S. GOVERNMENT 20-YEAR CONSTANT MATURITIES J BOND BUYER'S SEASONED MUNICIPALS 4 1969 - High Low 8.85 (12/5) 6.90 (2/21) 7.84 (12/26) 6.55 (1/12) 6.97 (12/26) 5.96 (1/24) 6.90 (12/18) 4.82 (1/28) 1970 - High Low 9.30 (6/19 8.60 (7/3) 7.48 (12/31) 7.55 (5/29) 6.17 (12/18) 7.12 (5/29) 5.33 (12/11) 1971 - High Low 8.23 (5/12) 6.76 (1/29) 7.71 (8/13)" 7.06 (2/12) 6.51 (6/18) 5.69 (3/23) 6.23 (6/24) 5.00 (3/18) 1971- July 23 30 7.90 8.07 7.63 7.66 6.39 6.45 5.97 6.05 Aug. 8.02 7.69 7.71 6.44 6.41 6.07 6.03 1 7.68 (12/18) 6 13 7.97 New corporate issues, with call protection, adjusted (as described in footnote 1 of Table 1) to a Aaa basis. Weekly average of daily figures. Average term of bonds included is 22-24 years. 3 Weekly average of daily figures. 4 Thursday figures. The average rating of the 20 bonds used in this index I falls midway between the four top groups as classified by Moody's Investors Service. Note--Highs and lows are for individual series and may be on different dates for different series. 2 6 TABLE 4: Long-term Corporate and State and Local Government Security Offerings and Placements (In millions of dollars) GROSS PROCEEDS CORPORATE 1 PERIOD 1971 STATE AND LOCAL 2 1970 1969 1971 1970 1969 January February March 3,115 3,000 6,075 2,636 1,802 3,539 2,075 2,045 2,098 2,705 1,839 2,144 1,340 1,214 1,555 1,262 987 538 April May June 4,007 3,174 4,100e 3,170 3,909 3,389 2,748 2,076 2,530 1,907 2,135 2,008 1,647 996 1,085 1,801 1,110 737 July August September 4,000e 2,768 2,274 3,518 2,478 1,427 2,427 1*8506 1,348 1,359 1,758 1,097 808 559 3,777 4,182 3,980 1,933 2,375 2,532 1,924 1,748 2,190 1,280 886 816 7,977 10,468 8,560 11,939 6,218 7,354 6,332 6,840 6,688 6,050 4,109 3,728 4,465 5,862 2,787 3,648 2,464 2,982 j j 18,445 27,005 38,944 13,572 19,904 26,744 12,738 7,837 12,302 18,164 6,435 8,899 11,881 \ j I October November December 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1st half Three quarters Year 12,190 ll,281e 23,471e ! Excluding finance companies 3 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 6,170 7,037 -Year 1 2 3 Securities and Exchange Commission estimates of gross proceeds. Investment Bankers Association of America estimates of principal amounts. Total gross proceeds excluding offerings of sales and consumer finance companies. i TABLE 5: New Corporate Security Issues, Type of Issue and Issuer (In millions of dollars) QUARTER OR MONTH TOTAL GROSS PROCEEDS BY TYPE OF ISSUE COMMON BONDS AND MEMO: PUBLICLY PRIVATELY PFD. ISSUES INCLUDED MFG. PLACED STOCK FOREIGN | CONVERTIBLE OFFERED GROSS PROCEEDS BY TYPE OF ISSUER PUBLIC UTILITY COMMUNICATIONS OTHER ISSUERS 1 1970 - II 10,468 6,994 1,282 2,190 135 III IV 1971 - I II 8,560 11,938 12,190 11,688 5,987 7,827 8,369 6,546 914 1,421 1,516 1,758 1,659 2,690 2,306 3,384 83 226 84 215 710 287 737 824 1,351 2,445 2,314 3,169 3,794 3,130 2,812 2,714 3,406 3,197 2,910 2,162 868 1,346 1,606 896 3,048 2,663 4,020 3,594 4,753 1970 - June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 3,389 2,768 2,274 3,518 3,777 4,181 3,979 1,931 1,831 1,731 2,425 2,390 3,001 2,436 436 320 205 389 304 283 834 1,021 617 338 704 1,083 898 709 26 68 11 4 56 11 159 82 107 i • 59 121 388 184 165 939 638 682 994 1,006 1,107 1,056 1,103 843 630 1,241 1,101 1,350 955 353 144 279 445 371 693 282 994 1,143 682 838 1,300 1,033 1,687 1971 - Jan. Feb. Mar. 3,115 3,000 6,075 2,033 2,201 4,135 594 275 647 489 524 1,293 43 3 38 716 661 2,417 676 1,069 1,452 391 683 532 1,332 587 1,675 Apr. 4,042 2,116 507 1,419 116 384 1,135 1,267 May 3,271 2,148 491 633 47 255 588 789 June 2,282 760 1,332 4,375 52 712 1,206 1,055 e/julv 4.000 1.250 500 2,250 n.a. Ann 165 560 Other issuers are extractive, railroad and other transportation, real estate and finance, and commercial and other. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. Quarterly supplements are available. 273 405 218 W 1 5 1,367 1,489 1,897 1 22S 99 168 557 TABLE 6: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury) 1 August 2 thru August 13., 1971 ISSUER TYPE 2 AMOUNT ) (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) MATURITY COUPON RATE OR NET INTEREST COST OFFERING YIELD MOODY'S RATING Corporate Gulf Life Holding Co. Pepsico Inc. Dayton Pwr & Light Co Dayton Pwr & Light Co Illinois Pwr Co Louisville Gas & Elec Co Indiana Bell Telephone Co Consumer Pwr Co Jersey Central Pwr & Light Co Kansas-Nebraska Nat. Gas Co Duke Pwr Co First at Orlando Corp Weyerhaeuser Co City Investing Co 25.0 Debs 50.0 Debs 45.0 1st mtg 20.0 Pref stk 30.1 Pref stk 100.0 1st mtg 100.0 Debs 120.0 1st mtg 25.0 1st mtg 15.0 S.F. debs Cum pref 60.0 stk 15.0 Debs . Conv pref 100.0 stk 50.0 Sub debs 1991 1996 2001 \ 5.50 4.75 8.13 5.50 4.75 8.15 Baa A Aaa Aa Aaa Baa A — -- 2001 2011 2001 1996 1991 8.20 8.13 8.13 9.13 8.45 8.10 8.20 8.13 8.92 8.45 1996 8.20 5.75 8.20 5.75 1991 8.00 8.00 — TABLE 6: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (continued) Z (Other than U.S. Treasury) 1 ! ISSUER TYPE 2 AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) MATURITY Aug. 2 COUPON RATE OR NET INTEREST COST thru Aug. 13. 1971 1 1 OFFER i IIX. J YIELD MOODY'S RATING State and Local Houston, Texas New York State Dorm Authority Los Angeles DWAP Los Angeles DWAP Greater Anchorage Area Brough Alaska Albany Co., N.Y. Memphis, Tenn. Detroit City Sch Dist Cleveland, Ohio East Bay MUD, Calif. East Bay MUD, CAL Connecticut Louisiana Stadium Exp Dist. Louisiana Stadium Exp Dist. Texas Wtr Dev Sacramento Coram Center Auth, Calif Sacramento Comm Center Autt^ Calif Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Comm. Cornell Twnship, Mich Cornell Twnship, Midh Other International Bk for Beconstr & Dev.. * G.O. Rev. Rev. Rev. 26.5 26.9 19.5 19.5 1972-1991 1974-2003 1977-1996 2011 5.32 6.83 5.90 5.90 3.40-6.00 4.50-6.90 4.50-5.80 6.00 Aa Aa G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. Rev. G.O. G.O. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. 10.0 70.0 29.0 22.9 15.0 12.0 12.0 100.0 92.6 20.4 25.0 13.6 5.5 1973-1991 1972-1995 1973-1999 1972-1981 1972-1991 1972-1991 1972-1991 1972-1991 1983 1975-1982 1972-1986 2006 1975-1991 6.76 5.99 5.80 5.75 5.98 5.26 5.26 5.30 6.00 6.00 4.95 6.22 6.22 4.75-7.10 3.70-6.30 3.60-6.10 4.00-6.00 3.70-6.40 3.40-5.95 3.40-5.95 3.30-5.75 5.94 4.20-5JW 3.30-5.30 6.00 4.25-6.00 Baa A Aa Baa A Aa Aa Aaa A A Aaa A A G.O. G.O. G.O. 11.5 6.2 5.5 1972-1996 1976-1987 1996 5.48 3.60-6. 10 4.75-6.:30 6.75 A 1996 8.13 Bonds 175.0 —- 6.75 \ x 8.13 Aa —— —— — Rights offering. 1 Includes corporate and other security offerings of $15 million and over; State and local security offerings of $10 million and over. 2 In case of State and local government securities, G.O. denotes general obligation; Kev.-Ut., revenue obligations secured only by income from public utilities; Rev.-Q.-Ut., revenue bonds secured only by income from quasi-utilities; Rev.-S.T., revenue bonds secured by revenue from specific taxes only; Rev.-Rent., revenue bonds secured solely by lease payments. 3 Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and FRASER Development issues and non-quaranteed issues by Federal Agencies. Digitized for 10 TABLE 7: Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury) 1 ISSUER TYPE AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) APPROXIMATE DATE OF OFFERING Corporate Instrument System Corp GAC Properties Credit Inc. Public Service Elec & Gas Co Tidewater Marine Service Inc Cincinnati Bell Inc Colwell Mtge Trst First Peima Mtg Trst Alberta Gov't Tel Commission Arkansas Pwr & Light Co Arkansas Elec Co Penna Elec Co Baltimore Gas & Elec Co Hall Crtift Homes Inc Southern Calif Edison Southern Bell Tel Co Southern Bell Tel Co Appalachian Pwr Co Hawaiian Telephone Co Florida Pwr & Light Co Consolidated Edison Co ZAYRE CORP Florida Gas Co Equimark Corp General Tel Co of the S.E. Barnett Mtg Trst Central Tel & Util Corp Microdot Inc. Beneficial Corp Beneficial Corp Monumental Corp Cleveland Elec 111 Valu Vend Credit Corp Pub Serv Co of N. Mexico Genstar Ltd Continental Can Co G e n 1 1 Portland Cement Co C&P Tel Co of Md Bank of California Central Tel Co *Kentucky Utilities Co VEPCO VEPCO Iowa Public Service Public Service Co of N. Mexico San Diego Gas & Elec Co Southwestern Bell Telephone Lincoln First Banshare http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Debs Debs Debs Debs Debs Debs Conv debs Debs Pfd stk 1st Mtg Debs 1st mtg Debs 1st ref mtg Debs Notes 1st mtg Bonds 1st mtg 1st mtg S oF. debs Conv debs Debs Bonds Conv debs 1st mtg Notes Bonds Bonds Notes Com stk Debs 1st mtg Debs Notes Debs Debs Conv debs 1st mtg 1st mtg 1st mtg Com stk 1st mtg 1st mtg Bonds Debs Debs 25.0 50.0 75.0 15.0 50.0 15.0 30.0 25.0 15.0 30.0 20.0 60.0 15.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 35.0 20.0 100.0 150.0 25.0 25.0 15.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 50.0 25.0 20.0 50.0 25.0 20.0 25.0 60.0 22.0 100.0 20.0 25.0 35.0 50.0 80.0 15.0 20.0 45.0 200.0 35.0 ' August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August August September September September September September September September September 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 19 23 23 23 24 24 25 26 30 31 — 7 8 8 14 16 16 11 TABLE 7: Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury) 1 ISSUER TYPE AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) APPROXIMATE DATE OF OFFERING State and Local Tulsa, Okla New York St. Housing Fin. Agency Dallas-Ft. Worth Reg Arpt, Tex Washoe Co, S/D, Ohio Virginia Pub Sch Auth Baton Rouge, La East Baton Rouge Parish, La. Norfolk Port & Indus Auth, Va Ohio, State *Ind Trans-Thoroughfare Auth, Ind Los Angeles, Calif South Carolina Pub Ser 6.0. Bond Rev. Rev. G.O. G.O. 15.0 G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. Rev. 16.0 166.0 75.0 10.0 13.0 15.1 15.0 100.0 100.0 26.0 20.0 100.0 August August August August August August August August August August August August ; 18 18 23 24 24 25 25 25 26 26 31 Other The Guam Economic Dev Auth * 1 2 Rev 45.0 September 1 Included in table for first time. . Includes corporate and other issues of $15 million and over; State and local Government issues of $10 million and over. Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-guaranteed issues of Federal Agencies. 12 Table 8 STOCK PRICES AND VOLUME STOCK PRICES 1 - TRADING VOLUME 2 - DATE NYSE INDEX 3 - AMEX 4 - D J . INDUSTRIALS AMEX NYSE 1969 - High Low 50.32 (5/14) 968.85 (5/14) 32.91 (1/3) 49.31 (7/29) 769.93 (12/17] 25.02 (7/29) i6.rrar/29) 8.6 (8/29) 8.0 3.6 (1/31) (11/21) 1970 - High Low 52.36 (1/5) 842.00 (12/29] 27.02 (1/8) 37.69 (5/26) 631.16 (5/26) 19.36 (5/27) 18.5 (12/4) 7.8 (8/14) 7.1 1.8 (1/2) (8/14) 1 9 7 L - High Low 57.76 (4/28) 950.82 (4/28) 48.73 (1/4) 830.57 (1/4) 26.68 (4/28) 22.72 (1/4) 22.1 (2/12) 11.0 (8/13) 6.7 2.7 (2/12) (8/13) 1971 - July 2 9 16 23 30 55.18 55.76 54.97 54.82 52.80 890.19 901.80 888.51 887.78 858.43 25.52 25.83 25.61 25.44 24.61 12.5 12.9 13.4 12.2 12.6 2.9 3.4 3.2 2.8 3.2 52.07 52.88 850.61 856.02 24.37 24.59 12.5 11.0 3.0 2.7 ^ Au& 6 13 NOTES: 1. Figures other than highs and lows are Fridays only. Highs.and lows are for the year and are not necessarily for Fridays. 2. NYSE is the New York Stock Exchange; AMEX is the American Stock Exchange. Volume figures are daily averaged for the entire week, (millions of shares). Trading is normally conducted for 5-1/2 hours per day and 5 days per week, or In recent years, however abbreviated trading to the extent, and over the time Hours/ Days/ From Through: Day Week January 3, 19*9 July 7, 1969 January 2, 1970 July 3, 1969 December 31, 1969 May 1, 1970 3. 12/31/65 - 50 4. Average dollar value of shares listed. 4 4-1/2 5 5 5 5 27-1/2 hours per week. periods, shown below: Hours/ Week 20 22-1/2 25 13 TABLE 9: Security Credit END OF PERIOE CUSTOMERS 1 NET DEBIT BALANCES CREDIT EXTENDED TO MARGIN CUSTOMERS BY: BROKERS 1 | BANKS 2 | TOTAL NET CREDIT CUSTOMERS' NET EXTENDED BY FREE CREDIT BROKERS AND DEALERS 3 BALANCES Outstanding ly/U- 3,860 June 3,800 July .3,810 Aug. Sept. .3,920 Oct. .4,010 .4,010 Nov. .4,030 Dec. 2,290 2,290 2,300 2,330 2,270 2,320 2,330 6,150 6,090 6,110 6,250 6,280 6,330 6,360 5,281 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) 2,009 "S (5)2,180 2,083 . 2,236 2,163 2,197 2,286 ,4,000 4,090 4,300 4,530 4,620 4,720 2,300 2,330 2,360 2,340 2,340 2,390 6,300 6,420 6,660 6,870 6,960 7,110 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) 2,452 2,743 2,798 2,660 2,550 2,440 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) -300 - 60 10 110 90 - 20 - - 10 30 - 60 50 10 -300 - 60 20 140 30 50 30 -152 -213 171 97 153 - 73 34 89 - 61 - 30 90 210 230 90 100 - 30 30 30 - 20 - 50 - 60 120 240 210 90 150 .1971 - Jan. Feb. • Mar. Apr. -May June 3,272 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) Change in Outstanding 1970- June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1971 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 1 2 3 4 . - - - - - -. - -' - - - . - - - - - -• - - - 166 291 55 -138 -110 110 - - - - - - . — - . — • - - - — — — — — — Margin debt, as reported by the New York Stock Exchange. Although margin debt until March 1968 included loans secured by U.S. governments, the amount of such loans included is thought to have been small. "Bank loans to others than brokers and dealers for purchasing or "carrying securities other than U.S. governments." • The difference between customers' net debit balances and customers'net free eredit balances, this figure represents the net credit extended by brokers and dealers to the nonfinancial public. " NOTE: With the exception of bank loan data, figures are supplied by the New York Stock Exchange and are end of month data. Bank loans are for weekly reporting large commercial banks. Broker data includes loans for regulated securities; bank data includes loans for the purpose of purchasing or carrying any security, whether regulated or not. Series discontinued. in series. forChanges FRASER Digitized5 TABLE 10: Savings Flows at Nonbank Depositary Intermediaries ($ millions) \ ' DATE MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS NET REGULAR DEPOSITS 3 NEW ANNUAL MONEY2 GROWTH NET 1 RATE FLOW SAVINGS & LOAN ASSOCIATIONS NET SHARE CAPITAL NEW ANNUAL MONEY 2 GROWTH NET 1 FLOW RATE 4,203 2,549 4,466 1,143 -763 936 7,432 4,200 11,173 224 -133 174 753 1,801 543 —— 651 710 277 2,160 3,086 1,600 —— TOTAL DEPOSITS ANNUAL NET GROWTH RATE 1 FLOW NET NEW MONEY2 Not Seasonally Adjusted 1968 1969 1970 7.0 4.0 6.7 1970 - May June July 326 504 297 •— 1971 - May r/ June r/ July e/ 800 900 450 —— --- -- 6.0 3.2 8.2 --- -- 2,738 -1,003 5,295 11,635 6,749 15,639 705 280 485 1,079 2,305 840 2,069 1,344 n. a. 2,960 3,986 2,050 6.3 3.4 7.7 3,881 -1,766 6,231 — "» 929 147 659 -- 2,720 2.05,4 n.a. Seasonally Adjusted January February March April May r/ June r/ July e/ 885 939 1,287 1,176 776 783 575 15.5 15.8 21.2 19.0 12.4 12.4 9.3 3,619 2,472 3,376 2,996 1,996 2,146 2,647 29.8 19*8 26.7 23.1 15.1 16.1 19.5 4,504 3,411 4,663 4,173 2,772 2,929 3,222 25.1 18.5 24.9 21.8 14.2 14.9 16.1 Annual growth rate for monthly data is the annualized monthly percentage increase in deposits. Net New Money is new deposits net of both withdrawals and interest. Data for S&Ls are for insured associations only, which represent 96% of industry total resources. Regular deposits at mutual savings banks exclude items such as Christmas club and certain escrow accounts, which represent a very small part of total deposits. SOURCE: National Association of Mutual Savings Banks and Federal Home Loan Bank Board. TABLE 11: Mortgage Commitments at Selected Thrift Institutions DATE TOTAL OUTSTANDING COMMITMENTS ALL MUTUAL SAVINGS SAVINGS & LOAN BANKS (N.Y. STATE) ASSOCIATIONS TOTAL 1 NET CHANGE ALL SAVINGS & LOAN , ASSOCIATIONS MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS (N.Y. STATE) (Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted) 1/ 1970 - June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1971 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May r/ June 8.2 8.6 6.1 6.5 9.8 8.9 9.3 9.6 6.8 10.4 8.3 8.9 10.1 11.2 12.6 3-> 16.1 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.1 10.1 11.1 12.2-£/ 13.0 2.1 2.0 .17 .37 .26 .41 -.09 -.04 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 .21 .25 .30 .35 .51 .29 .36 .37 .34 .28 -.08 -.11 -.07 .01 .23 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.1 .25 .80 1.36 1.30 1.56 .77 .20 .60 1.16 1.01 1.21 .72 .05 .20 .20 .29 .34 .05 Based on data from Federal Home Loan Bank Board and Savings Banks Associations of New York State. Data for savings banks and S&L's include a minor amount of nonresidential commitments. S&L commitments include loans in process. Net changes are derived directly from unrounded outstandings levels as reported and after seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve. Subtotals may not add to totals because of rounding. / 16 TABLE 12: Net Change in Mortgage Holdings DATE TOTAL INCLUDING FNMA-GNMA 1 FINANCIAL-INSTITUTIONS MUTUAL SAVINGS & SAVINGS COMMERCIAL LOAN BANKS BANKS ASSOC. TOTAL LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES Not Seasonally Adjusted 20,016 23,781 24,189 21,822 18,219 21,273 19,814 16,913 4,639 6,677 5,404 2,462 3,153 2,787 2,682 1,845 7,520 9,350 9,676 10,288 2,907 2,459 2,052 2,318 Mar. Apr. May 1,154 1,421 1,621 625 944 1,243 49 125 187 153 160 144 198 486 723 225 173 189 Mar. Apr. May 2,690 2,810 n.a. 2,690 2,920 n.a. 1,765 2,144 2,182 79 20 416 631 789 1,055 983 1,104 1,175 1,289 1,710 1,311 1,425 1,774 2,044 2,092 191 199 222 213 83 151 1967 1968 1969 1970 £/ 1971 Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 1,347 1,485 1,749 2,083 1,917 2,192 2,128 2,049 2,604 1,860 1,997 2,888 2,739 840 1,050 1,281 1,575 1,509 1,828 1,808 1,820 2,504 1,893 2,084 2,896 2,818 346 500 256 500 315 300 Seasonally Adjusted 157 76 155 65 189 81 142 165 175 268 245 328 138 295 176 224 250 312 175 383 217 345 380 588 283 453 325 240 200 131 232 24 97 154 38 to Call Report data on real estate loans outstanding as available. Other data derived from mortgage debt outstanding as reported separately by National Assn. of Mutual Savings Banks, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Institute of Life Insurance and, through August 1968, the Federal National Mortgage Association, and thereafter by FNMA and the Government National Mortgage Association. Data for mutual savings banks and for Life Insurance companies may differ somewhat from those derived from regular quarterly series because of minor conceptual differences for which adjustments are not made in the monthly series. Altogether, these groups accounted for 84 per cent of the net increase estimated for all holders in 1970. IT TABLE 13: Net Increases in Mortgage Debt Outstanding 1 Billions of dollars, SAAR QUARTER RESIDENTIAL 3 TOTAL 1- to 4FAMILY MULTIFAMILY 5, . 5 4, . 1 8. . 2 6.. 0 2.2 1.8 7 8 8 8 .3 .4 .8 .4 1.8 1.8 2.5 2.8 COMMERCIAL MULTI-AND COMMERCIAL FARM 1966 - I I IV 18 . 6 15 . 1 10.9 9 .1 8 .3 7.0 2 .6 2 .1 1967 - I II III IV 15 20 26 27 10 13 19 19 .3 .9 2 8 7 .0 10 15 . 3 16, . 0 3 .3 3 .4 3 .9 3 .8 3 .9 5 .0 4 .9 4,. 8 1968 - I II III IV 27, . 7 2 6 .. 2 2 6 .. 0 29., 6 19 , 0 18.. 2 17. 7l 2 0 .,2 15. . 8 15. . 0 1 4 .. 1 16. . 4 3, , 1 3. , 2 3. . 4 3. . 8 6.. 4 5. . 9 6. . 5 7. .5 9 .4 9. 2 10.2 11. ,11 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.8 1969 - I II III IV 31..3 28.,9 2 6 . ,5 25. 1 25., 0 2 1 . ,5 19. 3 18. 3 1 8 .. 6 1 6 . ,8 1 4 .,6 13. 0 4.4 4 ., 7 4.7 5. 3 6. . 2 5 . ,2 5. 3 5. 4 1 0 .. 4 10. 1 10. o 10. 7 2.2 2.2 1970 - I II III IV 2 0 . ,2 22. 7 28. 5 30. 5 13. 16. 21. 21. 8. 11. 14. 15. 5. 5. 6. 6. 0 4 3 4 4. 9 4.3 5. 2 6. 9 9. 9. 11. 13. 9 7 5 3 1.5 1.5 2.1 15. 3 2.0 1971 - IP .9 .7 .6 .3 32. 9 , 8 9 2 6 22. 6 8 5 9 1 15. 6 7. 0 8. 3 H 1.4 h1 ; > 1 Derived from data on mortgage debt outstanding from Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Home Loan, Bank Board, Institute of Life Insurance, National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, Departments of Commerce and Agriculture, Federal National Mortgage Association, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration and Comptroller of the Currency. Separation of nonfarm mortgage debt by type of property, where not available, and interpolations and extrapolations, where required, estimated mainly by Federal Reserve. 2 May differ somewhat from related flow of funds series mainly because of more aggregative type of seasonal adjustment. . 3 Residential mortgage debt includes nonfarm only and is sum of 1-to 4- family and multifamily mortgage debt combined. TABLE 14: FNMA Weekly "Auction" Results WEEK ENDED COMMITMENTS IN $ MILLIONS ACCEPTED 1-YEARN 90TOTAL 6TOTAL MONTH & OVER OFFERED DAY IMPLICIT YIELD 2 (per cent) 90DAY MONTH 6- 1-YEAR & OVER 126.9 687.2 54. 5 313. 9 39.8 154.0 9.4 126.6 5.4 33.4 7.32 7.43 7.45 7.54 7.53 7.57 10 24 1,168.0 785.7 236. 8 151. 6 145.8 44.6 71.3 84.4 19.7 22.6 7.57 7.95 7.68 7.97 7.74 8.03 1 14 28 322.4 664.4 539.3 146.,6 191.,2 262,,2 77.1 133.7 191.8 57.8 47.3 60.3 11.6 10.2 10.4 8.05 7.91 7.92 8.18 8.15 8.22 8.16 8.22 8.28 July 12 606.0 241,.1 183..3 161.8 183.3 58.2 21.1 8.23 8.31 1971 - Apr. 12 26 May June 28 689.0 -- — 1 Note: Under the FNMA auction system, approved sellers of Governmentunderwritten mortgages bid for FNMA forward purchase commitments. Bids accepted by FNMA are for delivery at the seller's option, and at any time within the specified period. Bids on proposed homes relate to construction not yet started on which mortgages may be delivered only after completion and occupancy. For "proposed construction" of new homes only. 2 Average secondary market yield after allowance for commitment fee and required purchase and holding of FNMA stock, assuming prepayment of 15 years for 30-year Government-underwritten mortgages. Yields shown are gross, before deduction of 38 basis points fee paid by investors to servicers. 19 TABLE 15: Private Housing Starts and Permits STARTS DATE 1970 - June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE TOTAL 1-FAMILY 2 OR MORE TOTAL UNADJUSTED TYPE OF FINANCING OTHER BUILDING PERMITS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE) 2 1,393 1,603 1,425 1,509 1,583 1,693 2,054 835 827 838 881 890 934 1,240 558 776 587 627 693 759 814 135.2 140.8 128.7 130.9 140.9 126.9 121.4 40.7 43.3 34.1 34.3 40.4 33.7 63.2 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.3 5.8 5.5 5.7 89.4 92.1 87:7 91.3 94.7 87.2 52.5 1,285 1,309 1,378 1,388 1,523 1,487 1,768 1,725 1,754 1,959 Apr. 1,912 May 1,959 June p/ 1,982 946 985 1,048 1,098 779 769 911 809 839 817 110.6 102.2 32.2 27.3 33.4 44.6 40.7 4.6 4.7 72.8 68.4 127.6 148.1 147.9 1,635 1,563 1,627 1,638 1,927 1,817 1971 - Jan. Feb. Mar. 1,120 1,165 167.9 201.1 196.9 192.3 8.3 Total starts are Census estimates including farm for both permit-issuing and non-issuing areas. A dwelling unit is started when excavation begins; all units in an apartment structure are considered started at that time. FHA and VA starts are units started under commitments by these agencies to insure or guarantee the mortgages. As reported by FHA and VA, a unit is started when a field office receives the first compliance inspection report, which is made before footings are poured in some cases but normally after the foundations have been completed. Other starts are derived as a residual, although total and FHA and VA starts are not strictly comparable in concept or timing; other starts include both units financed by conventional mortgages and units without mortgages. Building permits are for 13,000, or all known permit-issuing "places. Unlike starts, seasonally adjusted building permits reflect direct adjustment for differences in the number of working days per month, as well as other differences in timing and coverage. 20 TABLE 16: Mortgage and Bond Yields FHA MORTGAGES DATE 30-year 2 CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGES 3 SPREAD BETWEEN YIELDS ON CONV. & FHA MORTGAGES 5 1 NEW Aaa CORPORATE BONDS 4 SPREAD BETWEEN YIELDS ON NEW CORPORATE BONDS AND FHA MORTGAGES 6 1968 - High Low 1969 - High Low 7.52 6.78 8.62 7.99 7.40 6.75 8.35 7.55 .02 -.27 --13 -.40 6.79 6.15 8.75 6.91 1.20 .26 1.08 -.13 1970 - High Low 9.29 , 8.40 8.60 8.30 -.10 -.74 9.11 7.80 .99 .01 .28 .18 -.10 -.19 7.24 7.28 7.46 7.57 8.01 7.90 n.a. n.a. -.14 -.20 -.26 -.01 1971 - Jan, Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 1 2 — 7.32 7.37 7.75 7.89 7.95 7.75 7.60 7.55 7.65 7.70 . Neither mortgage nor bond yields include allowance for servicing costs which are much- higher for mortgages than for bonds. Generally, bonds pay interest semiannually; mortgages, monthly. Mortgage yields, if computed as equivalent to a semi-annual interest investment, would be slightly higher than given in the table. Based on FHA-field-office opinions about average bid prices in the private secondary market for new-home mortgages for immediate delivery. Data shown are for 30-year mortgaged with minimum downpayments, and weighted by probable volume of transactions. Yields computed by FHA, assuming prepayment period of 3 15 years for 30-year mortgages. Based on FHA-field-office opinion on typical interest rates (rounded) on conventional first mortgages prevailing in the market areas of insuring office cities. 4 5 6 See note for Table 1 . . Yield spread equals conventional mortgage rate less FHA secondary market yield. Yield spread equals FHA secondary market yield less new Aaa corporate bond yield. 21 TABLE 17: Conventional Mortgage Terms NEW HOMES DATE CON- FEES & TRACT CHARGES EFFEC- MATURITY (YEARS) (PER RATE TIVE CENT) RATE (PER CENT) 3 2 LOAN/ PRICE LOAN RATIO AMT. (PER C$000) CENT) 4 1 EXISTING HOMES CON- FEES & LOAN / TRACT CHARGES EFFEC- MATU- PRICE (PER RATE TIVE RITY RATIO CENT) RATE (YEARS) (PER (PER CENT) CENT) 2 3 LOAN AMT. ($000) 4 1970 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1971 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Mayr/ June ! 1. t i V i ! 1 \2 1 • 3 8.31 8.32 8.35 8.31 8.33 8.26 8.20 0.99 1.01 0.98 1.03 1.05 0.99 1.07 8.48 8.49 8.52 8.48 8.51 8.43 8.38 25.1 25.1 24.8 25.2 25.1 25.3 25.8 71,.3 71,.5 71,.6 72,.7 72,.4 72..1 73..8 25.6 24.9 25.5 25.3 24.8 25.2 25.8 8.19 8.21 8.25 8.27 8.20 8.18 8.12 0.98 0.95 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.85 8,.36 8,.37 8,,41 8 .42 8,.35 8,.32 8,.26 23 .0 23,.1 23 1 22 .8 22..8 22,.7 23,.3 71.5 71.5 71.5 71.7 71.5 71.5 71.9 21.5 21.7 21.4 21.0 20.5 21.1 21.7 8.03 7.74 7.52 7.37 7.36 7.38 0.92 1.00 0.83 0.73 0.71 0.73 8.18 7.91 7.66 7.49 7.47 7.50 25.8 26.2 25.9 26.3 26.1 26.3 73.,3 73. 9 73. 7 73. 6 - 74.0 73. 6 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.2 26.7 27.2 7.94 7.67 7.47 7.34 7.33 7.39 0.82 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.71 0.73 8. 08 7.,80 7. 60 7. 47 7. 45 7. 50 23..5 24.,0 24.,1 24.2 24. 0 24. 3 72.5 73.1 73.5 73.6 73.2 73.8 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.1 23.3 28^8 Compiled by Federal Home Loan Bank Board in cooperation with Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Data are weighted averages based on probability sample survey of characteristics of conventional first mortgages originated by major institutional lender groups (including mortgage companies) for purchase of single family homes. Data exelude loans for refinancing, reconditioning or modernization; construction loans to home-builders; and permanent loans which are coupled with construction loans to ownerbuilders. Related series on conventional mortgage rates only, based on unweighted opinions of field-office directors of the Federal Housing Administration, are available somewhat sooner than the results of the FHLBB-FDIC survey, and are included-in the case of new home mortgage r a t e s — i n Table 1 6 . Fees and charges—expressed as a percentage of the principal mortgage amount--include loan commissions, fees, discounts, and other charges which provide added income to the lender and are paid by the borrower. They exclude any closing costs related solely to transfer of property ownership. Includes fees & charges amortized over a 10 year period in addition to the contract interest rate. . 4 Derived by FRB.