The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.3 (402) For Immediate release CAPACITY UTILIZATION Manufacturing, Mining, Utilities, and Industrial Materials October 17, 1986 Capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and utilities was 79#2 percent in September. The September rate was the same as in August and in both the second and third quarters; it was 1.1 percentage points lower than a year earlier. Although there was no change in overall utilization in the third quarter, the rates for manufacturing and utilities recovered somewhat while the rate for mining declined further. The 73.2 percent rate for mining in the third quarter is the lowest level for this series, which begins in 1967; the depressed operating rate in this industry reflects the low level of activity in metal mining and oil and gas well drilling. Capacity utilization in manufacturing edged up 0.1 percentage point to 79.8 percent in September reflecting a small increase in durable manufacturing. Utilization in nondurable manufacturing was unchanged. A rebound in automobile assemblies in September more than offset a sharp drop the month before. Increases in other industries were relatively small. Decreases in petroleum products and aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment partially offset increases in these series for the previous month. With changes generally small, industries that have operated recently at relatively high rates—such as textiles, paper, petroleum refining and aerospace— continued high while industries producing metals and machinery continued at low rates• Producers of industrial materials operated at 78.0 percent of capacity in September, down 0.1 percentage point from August. This rate has changed little since May. Capacity Utilization: Summary Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Series 1973 Higfe 1975 LW O 1978 -80 High 1982 Lou 1967 -85 Avg. JON 1966 | JOL I AUG I SEP 88.6 72.1 86.9 69.5 81.7 79. 0 79.3 79.2 79.2 Manufacturing Durable Nondurable 87.7 87.4 88.9 69.9 67.9 71.8 86.5 86.3 87. Q 68.0 63.7 74.4 80.6 78.7 83.$ 79.3 75.7 84.7 79.8 76.3 85.1 79.7 76.3 84.8 79.8 76.4 84.8 tvitniny 92.8 95.$ 87.8 82.9 95.2 88.5 76.9 78.0 87.7 37.9 74.9 79.2 73.5 ao^7 73.1 80.1 72.9 60.6 92.0 70.5 89.1 68. « 82.5 78.0 78.3 78.1 78.0 Total Industry Utilities Industrial Materials CAPACITY UTILIZATION SEPTEMBER DATA SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, PERCENT 110 TOTAL INDUSTRY TOTAL MATERIALS 90 70 50 110 MINING UTILITIES 90 • \ 7 \ / \/ MANUFACTURING 70 \ / 50 110 MANUFACTURING ELECTRICAL MACHINERY 90 NONDURABLE 70 50 110 MOTOR VEHICLES AND PARTS 90 70 50 30 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 MANUFACTURING, MINING AND UTILITIES Table 1 Capacity Utilization Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity 1973 | 1975 1 1978 1 1982 1 1967 Series Hxyh 1 Low J - 8 0 | Lou j -8b 1 Avq. j i ax^a i 1 1 1 I 88.61 72.11 t>9.5l 81.7 Total Industry 8o-9l 1 • i 1 tiO-o 67.71 69.9) 86.51 Manufacturing 68.01 1 • • 1 91.91 68.31 81.7 89.11 Primary processing 65. 11 86.01 85.11 71.11 69.51 80.1 Advanced processing I 1 • 1 87.4J 67.9J 63.71 78.7 86.31 Durable manufacturing 89.3| 67. 11 86.61 62.9J 77.8 Stone, clay and glass products 101.91 67.01 97.11 45.81 80.1 Primary metals 105.8J 66.6J 100.34 37.61 79.4 Iron and steel, subtotal 95.6| 62.11 91.11 i>0.8l 81.3 Nonferrous metals, subtotal 85.0) 64.7J 87.41 61.31 77.9 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery 89. 0 j 68.21 S6.01 62.91 78.5 85.71 63.71 89.91 66.91 78.3 Electrical machinery 97. 1j 52.71 93.JJ 4 7.01 77.9 Motor vehicles and parts J Automobiles J 93.31 3o.6l 77.Oj 69.61 87.11 70.71 76.4 Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp. 89.21 74.91 88.91 77.81 83-4 Instruments 69.Oj 69.1) 87.7j 81.01 81-7 Other durables 1 i 1 1 71.81 83.5 87.01 Nondurable manufacturing 74.41 88.81 85.8| 77.6J 85.11 76-51 82.3 Food and kindred products 9^.11 58.91 86.3i 70.61 84.5 Textile mill products Paper and products 95.6| 67.71 92.7| 80.81 88.4 Chemicals and products 88.61 bV.2l 82.91 67.61 76.6 Petroleum products 99.61 83.71 91.71 69.71 87-7 Rubber and plastics products 97-51 59.51 89.41 71.21 84.6 72.31 Other nondurables 8b.41 92.4J 78.91 86.0 i Mining 92.81 1 87.8J 95.21 Utilities Electric utilities 95.61 98.71 1 82.91 83.0J 1 88.51 87.61 1 76.9| 78.01 78.21 i I 1985 1 SEP 1 1 1 80-3! 80.9 80.2 79.0 79.5 79.1 79.0 79.3 79.2 79.2 1 80.8 80. 2 79.1 79.9 79.4 79.3 79.8 >79_7 79.8 • 82.51 78.91 84.4 79.2 83.6 78.6 82-4 77.4 83.2 78.5 62.9 78.0 82.7 77.7 83.0 78.4 S3-3 78.1 83.4 78.0 78.4 83.0 74.7 69.9 82.2 81.8 73.7 72.1 84-5 83-8 87.2 82.0 83.3 77.7 82.3 72.9 67.5 81-4 81.2 72.9 71.4 84.3 85.1 86.2 81.9 83.1 76.5 82.6 69.3 62.6 79.7 80.6 71.7 71.4 78.2 74.6 86-0 81.7 82.7 77.1 83- o 71.41 64-0 81.9 81.0 71.0 72.0 81.3 80.3 87.3 81.7 83.2 76.3 62.4 66.1 58.9 82.5 79.7 71.1 71-5 78.4 75.6 87.3 80.2 83.5 75.7 82.7 65.1 57-1 77.6 79.8 70.5 70. 1 79.7 79.3 87.0 79.7 82.9 76.3 81.7 67.1 60.41 77.5 78.9 71.4 71.5 80.0 76-1 87.1 80.5 83.0 76.3 £1-7 66.4 59.1 77** 79.6: 71.3 71.4 77.8 70.2 S9.U 80.7 83.2. 76.4 84.5 78.7 87.5 94.6 80.3 92.8 86-5 86.3 83.9 79.1 89.1 93.8 80.4 86.3 86.7 86.1 83.0 78.5 87-4 93.4 79.1 86.9 84.4 86.0 64.1 76.8 90.2 94.4 80.5 89^6 33.5 87.5 84.1 78.9 90.1 93.6 79.6 93.9 85.0 87.2 84.7 79-3 91.1 96.2 81.1 90.1 85.9 87.3 85.1 78.6 9U4 96.8 81.3 90.2 87.5 88.4 84.8 79-0 31.7 96.8 81.4 92.9 86.1 86.4 84.8 81-6 79.4 77.9 76.4 75.5 74.9 73.5 73. 1 72.9 82.7 81.5 80.4 81.3 80.1 81.2 80.0 82.3 79.3 H2.2 79.2 83.0 80.7 84.3 80.1 83.5 80.6 84.0 60.0| | I I 1 I 1 \ | I 1 1 | I I 1 1 i i 1 1 1 » i I 1 | 1 77.81 81.81 72.81 67.61 81.21 80.01 74.01 72.41 83.61 79.61 84.6J ai-7i 83.01 i 1 83.3J 79.71 87-Oi 91.41 79.31 83.2J 87.2J 86.21 1 87.7 81.71 > 1 87.9 | 83.8J 88.7 1 83. M I 1 1986 i. JAN 1 fSB 1 flAB 1 kSSL 1 RkX i JUH 1 JUL 1 AU6 i SEP 66.5 80.1 70.5 73-5 80.9 77.0 88.1 80.5 83.6 91.5 86.6 Table 2 Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted Total Industry OUTPUT 1 1966 I Q4 Ul Q2 Q3 1 1 1 124.0 124.71125.0 124.4 125. 11 1 Manufacturing 126.8 127.41126.4 128. 4 129.51 Series Primary processing Advanced processing i 109.2 110.31111-5 131.1 1 1 1 . 9 1 137.4 137.61138.5 138.:* 14U.1J 132.7 1 3 3 . 1 1 1 3 3 . 6 134.0 134.51 173.9 175.31 176.7 177.9 179.21 i 1 Durable manufacturing Stone, clay and glass products Primary metais Iron and steel, subtotal Nonferrous metals, subtotal Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Automobiles Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp. Instruments Other durables 127.5 116.8 80.5 70.1 100.2 106.8 145.0 165.3 133.7 114.5 137.1 140.1 123.7 Nondurable manufacturing Food and kindred products Textile mill products Paper and products Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Other nondurables 125.9 131.4 105.1 127.7 128.1 87.2 148.2 127.4 Mining Utilities Electric utilities 127.91128.3 117.01 119.6 82.21 79.7 72.61 66.7 100.31100.5 107.91108.4 144.3J 1*3.5 166.61165.4 111.81113.7 108.41116.6 140.61143.0 139.61141.8 123.6J126,O 1 126.81128.6 131.01132.3 108.51108.6 129.31132.8 127.91131.3 88.21 ?1*1 149.5|149.7 129.41129.9 107.9 107.11 105.4 127.6J 1 72.91 1 1 106.31 142.31 167.11 110.81 106.21 146.91 142.31 128.21 1 130.2 132. 11 133.8 1 j) 111.8 134.8 1 132.8 1 93.0 93.11 149.7 1 131.8 132. 71 • 127. 1 120.6 74.8 61.4 100.0 107.1 140.9 165.3 110.6 112.2 144.8 140.9 127.2 99-9 96.61 * 111.1 112.81110.5 106.9 110.61 118.6 120.61 119.6 122.2 1 1985 Q3 163.4 143.2 111.0 104.3 123.7 133.3 194.2 226.6 135.4 141.0 164.1 169.7 149-3 151.3 165,3 122.9 139.8 162.5 102.6 170.0 147.1 164.5| 165.5 166.4 144-11 144.9 145.8 110.61 110.2 109.8 103.71103.0 102.2 123.81 123.9 124.1 133-41133-5 133.6 195.71 197.2 198.7 228.91230.7 232.2 137.01 138.1 138.6 142.91 143.6 143. 1 164.71 165.4 166. 1 171.51173-2 174.9 150.61 151.7 152.8 • 152.41153.5 154.5 166.71 168.1 169.4 123.2J 123.4 123.6 140.61 141.4 142.3 163.4] 164.3 165.2 102.31102.0 101.9 172.11174.3 176.5 14a. 41149.6 150.9 i 1985 Q3 80.3 60.1 82.3 79.0 UTILIZAXIOK 1986 Q2 Ql 1 80.21 79.2 1 79.5 79.91 80.0 1 82.81 83.5 82.9 78.51 78.4 78.0 U4 Q3 79.2 79-8 83.2 78.2 i 167.21 1 109.41 1 1 133.71 200.21 233.7| 139.21 142.71 166.91 176.61 153.91 78.0 81.5 72.5 67.3 81.0 60.1 74.6 72.9 84-0 81.2 83.$ 82.6 82.9 77.71 81.2J 74.3| 70.01 81.01 80.9| 73.71 72.81 81-61 75.9J 85. 3 J 81.41 82.11 1 77.5 82.6 72.3 66.7 81.1 81.2 72.3 71.7 82.3 61.2 86.5 81.9 83.1 76.4 82.9 6a. i 60.0 80.6 do.1 70.9 71.2 19.8 7&-4 87.2 ftO-5 83.2 155.61 1 1 1 1 101.8J 1 152.11 83.2 79.5 #5.5 91.4 78.8 65.0 37.1 86.6 83.2! 78-6J 88. 11 92. 0J 78.2| 86.21 86. 81 87. 2 J 1 83.8 78.7 88.0 93.9 79.9 89.3 85.9 86.8 84-3 29.Q 90.4 94.7 80.4 91.2 «*-8 87*3 81. 5 80.91 79.6 1 8 3 . 2 | 81.1 82,61 81.3 75.6 73.2 79.5 82.5 80.5 83.9 1 i 132.4 132-51 132.4 132.1 131.91 1 135.0 135.71 136.3 136.9 137.51 144.9 146.0) 147.1 148.1 149.0J Rot*. Data for output are percentages of 1377 output as shown in the Federal Reserve's seasonally t # & « e d indexes of industrial production. Capacity is also expressed as a percentage of CAPACITY 1986 Q2 Ql 1 1 Q4 Q3 1 1 154.4 1 D 5 . 41 156.3 157.1 157.91 1 i 158.4 159.51160.5 161.4 162.31 1 I 1985 82.3 83.8 76.3 66.7 79.5 71-1 71.5 79.6 74.5 88.1 80.6 03.3 84.9 91.5 87.2 1977 actual output. Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to capacity. INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS Table 3 Capacity Utilization ; Monthly, seasonally adjustted, percent of capacity Series High | Low -80 "JAN L I Industrial Materials 92.01 1 8J.1J 1 i 89.8) 1 93.61 I 70. I I Durable goods materials 91.81 I Metal materials Raw steel Aluminum 99.2} 1 106.01 9b.7| I I I Nondurable goods materials Textile, paper, and chemical materials Pulp and paper materials Chemical materials i 98.4| 92.51 I I Energy materials 67. 66 73 66. 94.6} ! 70.61 b4.4| I 1 86.91 1 J FEfl | MAB j ikPJk | HAY j JUS j JUL j AUG SEP I 68.41 1 1 82.5] 60.91 79.31 1 45* 71 I 98. 91 64. 92.81 I 1982 | 1967 1 1985 j 1 Low 1 -85 1 SEP 1. 1986 97.41 I I 88.11 I 83.41 1 97.31 87.91 i 1 1 79.5| 1 1 75.8J 1 69.11 I 1 I 69.4( 71.7| I I I I I 78.41 Jo. 11 58.8J 81.11 88.11 I I 70.61 i 83.21 68.6| 1 79.91 t>J.3| I 1 82.21 1 I 83.ol I 91.4| 80.8| I I 89.7| I 82.61 I 83.11 1 91.01 80.01 I I 85.21 I ao. i 79.6 78.5 78.7 78.1 78.0 78.3 78.1 78.0 76.5 75.9 74.5 74.9 73.7 73.2 73.6 73.5 73.5 71.0 69.0 66.0 68.3 65.2 63.2 63.8 63.4 63.9 72.4 68.6 70.2 69.8 67.7 71.3 oti.tt 72.1 64.9 72.4 63.2 64.7 63.5 61.4 58.9 64.2 83.7 83.5 82.5 8J.6 83.5 84.3 84.9 85.1 85.0 84.3 64.2 83.4 83.6 84.2 85.1 85.5 86.1 86.0 94.6 93.8 93.0 93.6 93.1 95.9 96.9 97.2 80.8 80.2 79.4 79.4 80.2 80.4 80.5 80.9 85.1 64,3 83.7 82.8 82.9 83.1 82.6 81.7 81.3 Table 4 Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted Series UTILIZATION 1985 1985 _Q3 198b Q4 Industrial Materials Durable goods materials 113.8 120.4 79.6 Raw steel Aluminum Nondurable goods materials Textile, paper and chemical materials Pulp and paper materials Chemical materials Energy materials 71.8 84.2 113.4 113.3 123.8 113.6 102.5 114.31114.5 1 I 121.11120.9 I 82.61 79.0 J 68.64 71.4 78.6J 79.1 1 1 113.91115.7 i 114. pi 116.2 1 124.81128.8 113.41115.3 1 I 102.61102.2 I 113.3 113.41 118.8 75.1 66.2 77.7 116.9 117.0 130.1 115.4 100.6 Q4 1986 Q1 142.8 14j.6| 144.2 1 1 118.71 157.8 159.01159.9 J 72.61 115.9 115.51115.0 I 103.3 115.8 102.71101.8 114.71113.2 I 118.91 138.1 i 138.6| 139.0 119.61 137.5 138.0M38.4 I 135.8 143. 1 136.5| 137.3 143.61144.0 I 99.41 120.6 I I 120.91121.1 I 1986 1985 Q2 144.7 145.31 79.7 I i 160.7 1&1.5J 7t>.3 i 114.5 114.Oj 68.7 1 100.9 1 69.5 111.4 1 72./ I I 139.5 139.9J 82.1 138.8 139.21 82.4 I 138.1 1 91.1 144.3 1 79.4 I I 121.3 121.41 85.0 I Q3 79.61 1 J 76.2| I 71.51 I 66.81 O8.5| 79.4 78.3 78.1 75.6 73.9 73.5 t>6.7 65.6 63.7 70.1 69.9 65.6 69.7 I I 82.21 I 82.71 I 91.41 79.0| I 1 84.9| 83.2 83.8 85.0 S3.9 84.3 85.9 93.8 80.1 94.2 80.0 84.4 82.9 81.9 Explanatory Notes Definition. This release contains estimates of output, capacity, and capacity utiiization for the nation's factories, mines, and electric and gas utilities. Output data are the Federal Reserve's seasonally adjusted indexes of industrial production, which express output as percentages of 1977 output. The capacity estimates are expressed as percentages of 1977 output as well. Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to capacity. The capacity indexes are based on a variety of data, Including capacity data in physical units compiled by trade associations, private and government surveys of capacity growth and utilization rates, and estimates of capital stock growth. The concept of practical capacity is applied, which is defined as the greatest level of output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work pattern, taking account of normal downtime, and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate machinery and equipment In place. When the capacity indexes for individual industries are aggregated—for example to total manufacturing—no explicit account is taken of possible general equilibrium constraints such as emerging industry bottlenecks. Because of the large and heterogeneous database, changes in utilization rates may be more meaningful in the analysis of business conditions than any particular level of these rates. Groupings. Estimates of capacity and industrial production for manufacturing industries are aggregated to primary processing and advanced processing industries, to durable and nondurable manufacturing industries, and to total manufacturing. The mining, manufacturing, and utilities estimates aggregate to the total index. Primary processing includes textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metal products, and stone, clay, and glass products. Advanced processing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products such as drugs and toiletries, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, machinery, transportation equipment, instruments, miscellaneous manufactures, and government-owned-and-operated ordnance facilities. Industrial materials are items produced and used as inputs by manufacturing plants, mines, and utilities. Industrial materials include many of the items Included in the primary processing grouping of manufacturing, as well as some of the output of the advanced processing industries, mines, and utilities—such as iron ore, crude oil, semiconductors, and electricity sold to industry. Perspective. The historical highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in the tables above are specific to each series and did not all occur in the same month. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For mining, manufacturing, and utilities as a whole, and for total manufacturing, utilization rates as high as 90 percent have been exceeded only in wartime. Revisions. The first estimates for a month are published about the 17th of the following month. These estimates may revise in each of the next three months as new data become available. After the fourth month no further revisions are undertaken until an annual or benchmark revision. The median of the revisions in the total manufacturing utilization rate between the first and fourth estimate is 0.3 of a percentage point; that is, in about half of the cases, the absolute value of the revision from the first to the fourth estimate is less than 0.3 of a percentage point. Sources. The basic methodology used to estimate the series is discussed in Richard D. Raddock, "Revised Federal Reserve Rates of Capacity Utilization," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Vol. 71 (October 1985), pp. 754-66. Revised data for 1984-85 as well as historical utilization rates since 1967 (1948 in the case of manufacturing) are included in the statistical supplement to the September 1986 capacity utilization release. Copies may be obtained from Publications Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. 20551 Rounding. Utilization rates are calculated from unrounded capacity and production indexes. Aggregates are derived from unrounded detailed components. Release schedule for 1986. Approximately 11 a.m. on January 17, February 18, March 17, April 16, May 16, June 16, July 16, August 18, September 17, October 17, November 17, and December 17.
