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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release i l l l i For release at 9:15 a.m. (EDT) May 15,1989 G.3 (402) CAPACITY UTILIZATION Manufacturing, Mining, Utilities, and Industrial Materials Capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and utilities increased 0.2 percent in April to 83.9 percent. The operating rate for mining increased more than a percentage point while the rates for manufacturing and utilities were little changed. Operating rates both for total industry and for manufacturing from January through March were revised downward. Total utilization appears to have eased slightly since January, principally reflecting declines in primary processing industries. Utilization for both primary and advanced processing industries edged up in April after having fallen the prior two months. The easing since the start of the year has shown up in many industries, especially building-related industries. Operating rates both for other durables, which includes lumber and furniture, and for stone, clay and glass products have declined since January. Utilization in the iron and steel industry, which had been around 90 percent during the last part of 1988, has fallen off considerably since January. In contrast, utilization rates for nonelectrical machinery and for aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment have continued up this year. Orders for commercial aircraft have continued strong during recent months while demand for railroad equipment has increased substantially. Utilization for producers of industrial materials increased 0.4 percentage point in April to 84.2 percent after having fallen more than a percentage point since November. The strength in April reflected increases for energy materials, especially coal mining and oil and natural gas extraction. Capacity Utilization: Summary Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Series 1973 High 1975 Low 1978 -80 High 1982 Low 1967 --88 Ave. 1989 Jan Feb Mar Apr 88.6 72.1 86.9 69.5 81.6 84.3 83.9 83.7 83.9 Manufacturing Durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing 87.7 87.4 88.8 69.9 67.9 71.8 86.5 86.3 87.0 68.0 63.7 74.2 80.7 78.8 83.6 84.7 83.2 86.8 84.2 82.8 86.3 83.9 82.4 86.1 84.0 82.6 86.2 Mining Utilities 92.8 95.6 87.8 82.9 95.2 88.5 76.9 78.0 86.5 86.7 82.2 80.9 80.7 82.6 81.6 82.1 82.7 82.1 Materials 92.0 70.5 89.1 68.5 82.3 84.6 84.0 83.8 84.2 Total industry CAPACITY UTILIZATION APRIL DATA SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, PERCENT 110 90 70 i 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1974 i i 1976 i i. 1978 i i 1980 i _i i 1982 1984 1986 1 1 50 1988 110 110 MINING 90 k\ UTILITIES vvv'^. V 90 70 MANUFACTURING 50 i 1974 1976 1978 ,i i 1980 , i i ,., i- 1982 1984 • 1986 1988 1974 1976 1978 1980 i 1982 50 i 1984 1986 1988 110 110 MANUFACTURING ELECTRICAL MACHINERY NONDURABLE 1 90 / V L \v „ > / J 70 DURABLE NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY 50 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 110 50 110 ALUMINUM TEXTILE, PAPER, AND CHEMICAL MATERIALS 90 70 50 30 50 • 1974 1976 1978 1980 • « 1982 i ... i. 1984 • 1986 1988 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 30 MANUFACTURING, MINING AND UTILITIES Table 1 Capacity Utilization Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity 1973 High Series 1975 Low 1978 -80 High 1982 Low 1967 -88 Ave. 1988 Apr 1988 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1989 Jan Feb Mar Apr 88.6 72.1 86.9 69.5 81.6 82.7 83.8 83.7 84.0 84.1 84.3 I 84.3 83.9 83.7 83.9 87.7 69.9 86.5 68.0 80.7 82.9 84.0 84.0 84.3 84.4 84.4 84.7 84.2 83.9 84.0 91.9 86.0 68.3 71.1 89.1 85.1 65.0 69.5 82.0 80.2 86.9 81.2 87.4 82.4 87.2 82.4 87.9 82.6 88.1 82.6 87.9 82.8 88.4 83.1 87.1 82.9 86.7 82.6 86.8 82.8 Durable manufacturing 87.4 Stone, clay & glass prod. 89.3 Primary metals 101.9 Iron and steel 105.8 Nonferrous metals 95.6 Fabricated metal products 85.0 Nonelectrical machinery 89.0 Electrical machinery 85.7 Motor vehicles and parts 97.1 Autos Aerosp. & misc. transp. eq. 77.0 Instruments 89.2 Other durables 87.7 67.9 67.1 67.0 66.6 62.1 64.7 68.2 63.7 52.7 63.7 62.9 45.8 37.6 60.8 61.3 62.9 66.9 47.0 36.6 70.7 77.8 69.1 78.8 78.5 79.9 79.0 81.5 78.0 78.2 78.1 78.2 78.1 82.9 81.6 80.9 81.9 83.7 83.4 84.1 82.3 80.1 77.3 80.5 69.3 86.6 80.2 82.2 82.3 82.3 88.8 38.2 89.6 84.0 82.7 78.4 82.0 70.7 85.8 82.5 80.9 82.5 82.2 90.9 90.9 90.9 84.1 82.8 78.1 82.6 74.2 85.9 82.8 80.7 82.8 82.6 91.9 92.8 90.7 83.7 82.2 78.5 84.7 77.0 86.2 83.6 81.2 83.0 83.5 90.4 90.2 90.7 84.8 82.8 78.0 85.5 76.7 85.6 83.6 81.7 83.1 83.6 87.6 86.5 89.1 84.9 83.7 77.3 87.2 79.8 85.6 82.7 82.4 . 83.2 84.5 90.6 91.6 89.3 84.3 83.9 77.3 86.6 75.7 85.7 83.4 81.7 82.8 83.5 88.4 87.9 89.1 84.1 84.4 77.4 85.4 72.9 86.2 83.2 79.5 82.4 83.8 86.4 84.5 88.9 83.7 84.8 76.9 82.9 71.7 86.1 82.8 79.9 82.6 69.6 74.9 69.0 86.3 86.6 97.1 100.3 91.1 87.4 86.0 89.9 93.3 93.3 87.1 88.9 81.0 88.8 85.8 92.1 95.6 88.6 99.6 97.5 86.4 71.8 77.6 58.9 67.7 69.2 83.7 59.5 72.3 87.0 85.1 88.3 92.7 82.9 91.7 89.4 92.4 74.2 76.5 70.6 80.2 67.6 68.8 71.2 78.9 83.6 82.1 85.2 88.8 79.3 86.9 85.0 86.0 85.9 79.6 91.3 94.9 86.2 88.5 88.0 86.3 86.4 80.4 89.3 94.8 88.6 86.0 87.8 86.1 86.2 80.1 88.8 94.5 88.7 83.9 87.3 86.3 86.4 80.4 89.1 94.7 89.0 86.1 87.7 86.0 86.4 81.1 88.9 93.7 89.1 84.9 87.6 85.7 86.3 81.0 89.1 94.1 89.2 87.5 87.2 85.1 86.8 81.2 90.7 95.1 89.3 87.5 86.0 86.5 86.3 80.9 89.8 93.4 88.4 85.9 85.5 86.6 86.1 80.4 91.3 92.2 88.8 85.1 84.6 86.6 86.2 Mining 92.8 87.8 95.2 76.9 86.5 82.3 82.2 82.3 81.9 83.3 83.6 82.2 80.7 81.6 82.7 Utilities Electric utilities 95.6 98.7 82.9 83.0 88.5 87.6 78.0 78.2 86.7 87.9 79.3 82.2 83.9 88.9 80.4 84.6 81.0 84.9 80.8 84.0 82.0 84.7 80.9 83.4 82.6 86.0 82.1 85.3 82.1 85.2 1989 1988 1989 I Ql 1988 Ql Qll QUI 82.4 82.8 83.8 84.1 | 83.9 Total industry Manufacturing Primary processing Advanced processing Nondurable manufacturing Foods Textile mill products Paper and products Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber & plastics prod. Other nondurables 85.6 83.6 85.0 77.2 84.7 75.2 86.4 82.5 79.5 86.2 86.5 Table 2 Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted Output Series Capacity 1988 Ql Oil QUI QIV 134.5 136.0 138.4 139.9 140.6 139.6 141.5 144.0 145.8 Primary processing Advanced processing 123.0 149.7 123.9 152.3 125.9 154.9 Durable manufacturing Stone, clay & glass prod. Primary metals Iron and steel Nonferrous metals Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Autos Aerosp. & misc. transp. eq . Instruments Other durables 138.4 121.5 86.0 76.5 104.1 117.8 163.7 177.2 110.6 92.6 153.9 149.0 137.8 141.0 122.1 87.3 75.8 109.1 119.7 169.6 179.1 117.9 109.9 151.5 151.6 138.1 Nondurable manufacturing Foods Textile mill products Paper and products Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber & plastics prod. Other nondurables 141.4 141.4 116.2 149.0 146.6 96.9 171.7 143.0 Mining Utilities Electric utilities Total industry Manufacturing QL I 1989 I Ql Qll QUI 163.1 164.2 165.2 166.3 ! 167.5 ! 146.9 168.9 170.2 171.5 172.8 174.3 82.7 83.2 84.0 84.4 84.3 127.7 156.7 128.0 158.2 141.6 185.4 142.7 186.7 143.9 188.1 145.2 189.5 146.5 191.0 86.9 80.7 86.8 81.5 87.5 82.4 87.9 82.7 87.4 82.9 143.3 122.5 91.8 80.2 113.7 122.1 174.0 181.8 117.5 108.2 152.0 157.0 137.6 145.2 124.4 92.3 80.5 114.5 124.1 175.7 182.0 123.4 116.9 152.3 159.8 139.9 145.8 125.9 91.2 79.2 113.8 124.4 180.1 181.1 122.7 110.3 153.6 161.2 138.6 172.0 147.9 101.6 89.2 125.1 143.8 208.0 230.5 142.3 149.8 174.2 186.6 167.3 173.0 148.4 102.0 89.3 125.8 144.6 209.3 231.5 142.8 149.9 175.3 188.3 168.6 174.0 148.9 102.3 89.5 126.4 145.7 210.6 232.5 143.3 150.1 176.4 190.1 169.9 175.0 149.4 102.6 89.6 127.1 146.9 211.9 233.5 143.8 150.2 177.5 191.8 171.2 176.1 150.0 103.1 90.0 127.7 148.0 213.5 234.5 144.4 150.2 178.6 193.9 172.5 80.4 82.1 84.7 85.8 83.2 81.9 78.7 76.9 77.8 61.8 88.3 79.9 82.3 81.5 82.2 85.7 84.8 86.8 82.7 81.0 77.4 82.5 73.3 86.4 80.5 81.9 82.4 82.2 89.7 89.6 89.9 83.9 82.6 78.2 82.0 72.1 86.2 82.6 81.0 82.9 83.2 90.0 89.8 90.1 84.5 82.9 78.0 85.8 77.8 85.8 83.3 81.7 82.8 83.9 88.5 88.0 89.1 84.0 84.3 77.2 85.0 73.5 86.0 83.1 80.4 142.3 140.9 115.4 149.1 149.5 95.9 173.4 144.5 145.0 143.3 116.6 151.4 154.5 94.9 175.3 147.2 146.7 145.2 117.4 151.4 157.4 96.4 177.3 148.3 148.3 146.3 120.2 151.8 158.9 96.6 175.4 152.0 164.6 175.4 127.5 156.2 171.7 111.1 193.9 166.2 166.3 176.8 128.9 157.7 173.2 111.4 196.8 168.6 168.0 178.2 130.4 159.2 174.9 111.6 199.7 170.9 169.8 179.6 131.8 160.7 176.7 111.9 202.6 173.3 171.6 181.0 132.7 162.3 178.8 112.1 205.5 175.7 85.9 80.6 91.1 95.4 85.3 87.2 88.5 86.1 85.6 79.7 895 94.5 86.3 86.1 88.1 85.7 86.3 80.4 89.4 95.1 88.5 85.0 87.8 86.1 86.4 80.8 89.1 94.2 89.1 86.2 87.5 85.6 j 86.4 80.8 90.6 93.5 88.9 86.1 85.4 86.6 102.5 103.4 103.9 104.2 102.0 127.7 127.0 126.3 125.7 125.1 | 80.3 81.5 82.3 82.9 81.5 114.7 130.0 111.9 129.8 115.1 135.2 114.3 132.4 115.5 133.6 139.8 154.8 140.1 155.4 140.4 156.1 140.7 156.7 141.0| 157.4! 82.0 84.0 79.9 83.5 81.9 86.6 81.3 84.5 81.9 84.9 Note. Data for output are percentages of 1977 output as shown in the Federal Reserve's seasonally adjusted indexes of industrial production. Capacity is also QL Utilization I QIV QIV expressed as a percentage of 1977 actual output. Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to capacity. INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS Table 3 Capacity Utilization Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity Series 1973 High 1975 Low 1978 -80 Hiah 1982 Low 1967 -88 /we. 1988 Apr 1988 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1989 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8<Ld 82.9 84.3 84.1 84.7 85.1 84.9 84.6 84.0 83.8 84.2 92.0 70.5 89.1 68.5 91.8 99.2 106.0 95.7 64.4 67.1 66.4 73.0 89.8 93.6 98.9 97.4 60.9 45.7 36.1 58.8 79.1 77.9 80.7 87.8 79.7 79.3 83.4 99.5 81.4 83.4 98.0 100.5 81.9 86.0 97.5 100.3 82.4 87.3 90.4 99.8 82.7 86.9 89.3 100.5 82.1 84.6 87.6 99.4 82.1 86.1 93.3 100.2 81.4 83.9 87.6 99.2 80.9 82.6 86.3 100.0 81.0 82.1 Nondurable goods materials Textile, paper, & chem. mat. Pulp & paper materials Chemical materials 91.1 92.8 98.4 92.5 G6.7 64.8 70.6 64.4 88.1 89.4 97.3 87.9 70.7 68.8 79.9 63.5 83.6 84.1 92.0 81.3 88.7 90.1 98.1 88.0 88.8 90.3 98.4 89.0 88.2 89.4 97.9 88.0 89.3 90.9 97.8 90.2 89.4 90.9 96.7 90.5 89.8 91.3 98.4 90.7 90.1 91.5 98.1 90.7 89.0 90.4 95.9 89.8 89.2 90.8 94.7 90.5 89.4 91.2 Energy materials 94.6 86.9 94.0 82.3 88.9 84.5 86.6 85.3 85.3 86.2 86.5 84.9 85.0 85.2 86.4 1988 Q! Qil QUI QIV 1989 Ql 1988 Ql Qll QUI QIV 1989 Ql Materials Durable goods materials Metal materials Raw steel Aluminum Table 4 Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted Output Utilization Caoacitv 1988 Ql Qll QUI QIV 1989 Ql 122.5 124.0 126.5 128.0 127.6 148.5 149.3 150.1 150.8 151.7 82.5 83.0 84.3 84.9 84.2 Durable goods materials Metal materials Raw steel Aluminum 131.5 86.2 77.7 92.5 134.1 88.1 77.1 94.8 137.1 92.7 85.9 97.2 139.2 94.8 79.5 97.8 138.6 92.8 79.8 98.5 165.7 108.8 88.7 94.3 166.8 109.1 88.7 95.5 167.9 109.5 88.9 96.7 169.0 109.8 89.2 97.9 170.1 110.2 89.6 98.7 79.4 79.2 87.5 98.1 80.4 80.8 86.9 99.2 81.6 84.8 96.8 100.5 82.4 86.3 89.1 99.9 81.5 84.2 89.0 99.8 Nondurable goods materials Textile, paper, & chem. mat. Pulp & paper materials Chemical materials 129.4 131.6 145.7 133.5 130.4 132.4 145.9 135.7 132.8 135.3 148.9 139.4 135.4 138.1 148.6 144.1 136.6 139.5 148.1 145.8 146.8 146.7 147.6 153.5 148.3 148.5 149.2 155.4 149.8 150.2 150.7 157.4 151.2 151.8 152.3 159.3 152.7 153.5 154.0 161.4 88.1 89.7 98.7 87.0 87.9 89.2 97.8 87.3 88.6 90.0 98.8 88.6 89.5 91.0 97.6 90.5 89.5 90.9 96.2 90.3 Energy materials 100.9 100.6 102.5 102.0 100.7 119.7 119.4 119.0 118.7 118.4 84.3 84.2 86.0 86.0 85.0 Series Materials Explanatory Notes. Definition. This release contains estimates of output, capacity, and capacity utilization for the nation's factories, mines, and electric and gas utilities. Output data are the Federal Reserve's seasonally adjusted indexes of industrial production, which express output as percentages of 1977 output. The capacity estimates are expressed as percentages of 1977 output as well. Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to capacity. The capacity indexes are based on a variety of data, including capacity data in physical units compiled by trade associations, private and government surveys of capacity growth and utilization rates, and estimates of capital stock growth. The concept of practical capacity is applied, which is defined as the greatest level of output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work pattern, taking account of normal downtime, and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate machinery and equipment in place. When the capacity indexes for individual industries are aggregated—for example to total manufacturing—no explicit account is taken of possible general equilibrium constraints such as emerging industry bottlenecks. Because of the large and heterogeneous database, changes in utilization rates may be more meaningful in the analysis of business conditions than any particular level of these rates. Groupings. Estimates of capacity and industrial production are aggregated to primary and advanced processing industries, to durable and nondurable manufacturing industries, and to total manufacturing. The mining, manufacturing, and utilities estimates aggregate to the total index. Primary processing includes textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metal products, and stone, clay, and glass products. Advanced processing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products such as drugs and toiletries, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, government-owned—and—operated ordnance facilities. Industrial materials are items produced and used as inputs by manufacturing plants, mines, and utilities. Industrial materials include many of the items included in the primary processing grouping of manufacturing, as well as some of the output of the advanced processing industries, mines, and utilities—such as iron ore, crude oil, semiconductors, and electricity sold to industry. Perspective. The historical highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in the tables above are specific to each series and did not all occur \n the same month. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent; none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For mining, manufacturing, and utilities as a whole, and for total manufacturing, utilization as high as 90 percent have been exceeded only in wartime. Revisions. The first estimates for a month are published about the 16th of tl>e following month. These estimates may revise in each of the next three months as new data become available. After the fourth month, no further revisions are undertaken until an annual or benchmark revision. The median of the revisions in the total manufacturing utilization rate between the first and fourth estimate is 0.3 percentage point: that is, in about half of the cases, the absolute value of the revision from the first to the fourth estimate is less than 0.3 of a percentage point. Sources. The basic methodology used to estimate the series is discussed in Richard D. Raddock, "Revised Federal Reserve Rates of Capacity Utilization," Federal Resen>e Bulletin Vol. 71 (October 1985), pp. 754-66. Historical utilization rates since 1967 (1948 in the case of manufacturing) are included in the statistical supplement to the October 1987 capacity utilization release. Copies may be obtained from Publications Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. 2055 I. Rounding. Utilization rates are calculated from unrounded capacity and production indexes. Aggregates are derived from unrounded detailed components. Release schedule for 1989. At 9:15 a.m. on January 18, February 15, March 16, April 14, May 15, June 15, July 14, August 16, September 15, October 17, November 14, and December 15.
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