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•*-£§§&:. FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.3 (402) For Immediate release CAPACITY UTILIZATION Manufacturing, Mining, Utilities, and Industrial Materials July 19, 1985 The estimates of capacity utilization have been revised back to 1967. A summary of the changes and revised historical data through the end of 1984 is contained in the supplement that accompanies this release. Capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and utilities decreased 0.1 percentage point to 80.7 percent in June, continuing the small monthly declines that have been prevalent since last August. Within manufacturing, the rate for nondurable goods remained unchanged, while the rate for durable manufacturing fell 0.2 percentage point. This easing reflected rate declines in electrical machinery, instruments, and automobiles. The sharpest decline over the last several months occurred in electrical machinery, which has dropped from a utilization rate of 81 percent in October 1984 to about 73 percent this past June. The operating rate for aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment, however, has moved higher over this period. Capacity utilization in materials production fell 0.3 percentage point in June to 80.0 percent. The operating rate for durable goods materials production dropped 0.6 percentage point while utilization in nondurable goods materials and energy materials remained essentially unchanged. The revised utilization rates reflect revisions of both the industrial production indexes and the capacity indexes. Mainly because of upward revisions in the recent growth of industrial production, the revised operating rate for total industry at the middle of 1985 is about one-half percentage point higher than its old measure. However, for 1984 and other recent years, the total utilization rate was revised downward somewhat, due to higher estimates of capacity growth. Capacity Utilization: Summary Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Series 1973 High 1975 Lou 1978 -80 High 1982 Low 1967 -84 1985 HAH | APS | HAT ] JUN 88.6 72.1 86.9 69.5 81.7 81.0 80.9 80.8 80. 7 Manufacturing Durable Nondurable 87.7 87.4 88.8 69.9 67.9 71.8 86.5 86.3 87.0 68.0 63.7 74.4 80.7 78.8 83.5 80.5 78.9 82.9 80.5 79.0 82.9 80.3 78.5 83.2 80. 3 78. 3 83. 2 Mining Utilities 92.8 95.6 87.8 82.9 95.2 88.5 76.9 78.0 88.0 88.1 82.8 85.0 82.9 84.6 82.8 84.0 82. 6 83. 6 92.0 70.5 89.1 68.4 82.7 81.4 81.0 80.3 80. 0 Total Industry Industrial Materials CAPACITY UTILIZATION JUNE DATA SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. PERCENT 110 TOTAL INDUSTRY TOTAL MATERIALS 90 70 ! 50 110 ! I I I I UTILITIES 90 70 I | I I I 50 110 MANUFACTURING REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 90 NONDURABLE 70 MOTOR VEHICLES AND PARTS i. 1 1970 1973 1 11i1i1!11 1 1976 1979 1982 1985 30 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 MANUFACTURING, MINING AND UTILITIES Table 1 Capacity Utilization Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity 1973 1 1975 I 1978 Series H i g h 1 Low ! -80 J Hiqh 1 Total Industry 88. Manufacturing 87. 91. 86. Primary processing Advanced processing Durable manufacturing Stone, clay and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel, subtotal Nonferrous metals, subtotal Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Automobiles Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp. Instruments Other durables Nondurable manufacturing Food and kindred products Textile mill products Paper and products Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Other nondurables 87. 89. • 1 0 1 . 61 1 71 1 91 01 • I 41 3| 91 I 105. 81 I 95,6| | 85. 01 89. 85. 97. 99. 77. 89. 87. 88. 85. 92. 95. 88. 99. 97, 86. 01 7| 11 61 01 2| 7| 1 81 8| 11 61 61 6| 5| «1 ] 9 2 , 81 1 9 5 , 61 9 8 , 7| Mining Utilities Electric utilities I 7 2 . 11 1 6 9 . 91 1 6 8 . 31 71. 1| • 1 APE I MAT 1 J U N 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.5 80.3 80.3 82.1 79.8 81.4 79.9 81.3 79.8 79.0 79.8 73.5 68.8 81.0 82.0 77.0 74.2 84.7 78.3 82,8 82.4 82.8 83.2 78.5 80.7 69.6 64.5 77.8 81.5 76.8 73.9 82.6 80.5 83.3 83.1 83.4 i 6 7 . 91 6 7 . 11 6 7 . 01 6 6 . 61 6 2 . 11 6 4 . 71 6 8 . 21 6 3 . 71 52. 7| 4 4 . 41 69. 6| 7 4 . 91 6 9 . 01 71. 77. 58. 67. 69. 83. 59. 72. 1 1982 I 1967 1 Year 1 1985 1 Low I -84 1 ago 1_1984 Avq. month 1 OCT 1 NOV 1DEC I JAN 1 FEB I MAR 1 1 1 I 1 1 8 6 . 91 6 9 . 5| 8 1 . 7| 81.1 8 1 . 3 8 1 . 11 8 1 . 1 80,9 81.0 81.6| 1 i 3 0 . 1 81.11 81.1 81.2 8 0 . 9 | 80.7 8 0 . 4 80.5 8 6 . 5» 68. 71 oi 1 89. 6 5 . 1 8 1 . 71 81.81 81.8 81.7 80.9| 81.6 81.5 81.8 11 11 8 0 . 2 | 8 5 . 11 6 9 . 51 80.71 80.7 80.9 8 0 . 8 | 8 0.2 79.8 79.8 i i • i 1 I 78. 8 6 . 31 63. 81 79.01 79.5 79.5 79.3| 79.3 78.7 78. 9 71 8 6 . 61 6 2 . 91 77. 6| 80.7J 80.7 80.8 79.4| 79.8 78.1 78,6 9 7 . 11 4 5 . 81 8 0 . 51 70.6J 72.4 72.3 70.31 73.5 72.1 73.7 100. 31 3 7 . 61 8 0 . 11 65.2J 66.7 67.1 65.4| 67.6 65.4 69.9 9 1 . 11 6 0 . 81 8 1 . 31 79.7| 81.7 80.9 78.31 82.9 83.1 79.8 8 7 . 41 6 1 . 31 77. 7| 77.81 78.8 79.3 79.61 80.0 80.8 81.6 8 6 . 01 62. 9| 7 8 . 71 77.61 77.8 77.0 76. 1| 76.0 75.5 76.0 6 6 . 91 78. 5| 8 9 . 91 80.01 81.0 80.7 80.71 78.4 76.8 76.4 9 3 . 31 4 7 . 01 7 7 . 61 81.51 79.3 82.3 83.51 85.8 85.0 83.8 9 3 . 31 3 6 . 61 76. 4| 78.6| 70.4 75.3 80.2] 85.6 83.7 83.8 8 7 . 1] 7 0 . 7! 7 6 . 21 76.01 78.3 78.4 79.4J 80.3 80.8 82.2 88. 9 | 7 7 . 8» 8 3 . 41 85.51 84.6 84.4 84.31 83.8 83.5 83.4 8 1 . 71 83.81 8 1 . 01 69. It 83.8 83.6 83. 11 82.6 82.3 82.2 1 81 61 91 71 21 71 51 31 87. 85. 88. 92. 82. 91. 89. 92. 1 01 11 31 7| 91 71 41 41 95. 1 1 8 7 . 81 1 8 2 . 91 8 3 . 01 88. 2| J 5| 87.6J 1 74. 76. 70. 80. 67. 69. 71. 78. 41 51 61 81 61 71 21 ?! 1 76. 9| 1 78. 01 7 8 . 21 | 83. 82. 84. 88. 78. 87. 84. 86. 88. 88. 89. 1 5| 51 51 21 7| 9| 51 01 1 01 1 11 01 69.4 81.5 77. 1 73.2 82. 1 79.2 84.0 82.4 83.0 84. 11 80.21 86.21 93.21 77.21 84, 1j 89.91 89.6| 83.4 80.3 82,2 92.9 77.5 82.0 89.4 87.7 83.6 79.8 79.5 92.8 77.8 83.1 89.4 89.0 83.1J 79.81 77.51 93.41 77.1J 81.8| 89.1} 88.4| 82,8 79.1 76,5 92.9 78, 4 81.4 88.4 8 7.3 83.0 79.6 80.5 91.3 78.4 81.5 87.9 87.4 82.9 78.8 81. 1 91.5 78.7 82.4 86. 5 87.6 82.9 80.0 81.3 90.2 77.9 85. 1 86.6 87.3 83.2 80.0 80.3 89.9 78.2 83.6 86.6 88.5 83.2 85.51 80.6 81.7 81.71 82.9 82. 1 82.8 82.9 82.8 82.6 84.21 84.0J 82.4 82.5 84.3 83.8 83.8| 84.7 82.81 83.5 1 86.7 85.4 85.0 83.4 84.6 82.9 84.0 81.9 83.6 81.7 83.1 88.3 Table 2 Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted O0TP0T 1985 1984 Q2 Series Q3 Q4 Q2 Q1 1 2 1 . 5 123. 4 1 2 3 . 1J123.8 1 2 4 . Total Industry i Manufacturing Primary processing Advanced processing 1 1 1 I 1 127.3J127. 7 112. 5 8 0 , 21 8 1 . 2 7 0 . 41 7 0 . 9 98. 8|100. 7 105. 4J107. 5 145. 6 | 1 4 5 . 5 179, 21174. 1 106, 71112. 3 101,. 9 | 1 1 5 . 9 1 2 6 . 8 127, . 9 1 1 3 1 . 8 139 . 8 138.7|138. 8 121 . 1 121, 21120. 5 i Durable manufacturing Stone, clay and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel subtotal Nonferrous metals, subtotal Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and Darts Automobiles Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp. Instruments Other durables 123. 9 112. 5 82. 4 73. 8 98. 9 102. 2 141, 5 169, 9 103, 8 104. 2 122. 8 136. 3 119. 8 127. 1 113, 4 82. 5 72. 4 101. 7 104. 2 146, 8 176, 1 106.1 100, 7 108. 149. 168. 111. 112. 135. 139. 122. 8| 5| 6| 31 51 51 01 61 Nondurable manufacturing Food and kindred products Textile mill products Pacer and Droducts Chemicals and Droducts Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Other nondurables 122. 127, 106. 127, 120. 123.4 123 . 5 J 1 2 3 . 6 1 2 4 . J 8| ] II W.I 1 W IVI l a l V V l l tWWll ITtvlvl wlV»WI, tfUVIVIW 1 1 IM%S1 I I I IWl J TwlllWlvW Gil 1VI ^/Otl fcW IMOll UlllwlllO 1 Gft^Wl WIIVIIIIVW0 U l IVI Gil IVI k*• WVIVIV» IW |/IWUUWlB Mining iti Electric utilities 1 2 8 . 11 1 78. 4| 1 1 128 . 9 1 1 2 8 . 7 97 .41 97. 2 1 128.4 128 , 0 | 1 2 7 . 2 1 123 . 0 123 . 7 J 1 2 6 . 0 1 8 5 . 91 85 .41 84. 3 86 . 8 144 . 9 146 . 4 1 1 4 5 . 3 1 126 . 0 126 , 5 | 1 2 6 . 3 1 2 8 . 31 0 3 0 5 88 5 142. 8 125, 5 127 . 9 103 . 3 1 1 1 .. 7 113 . 8 109 . 8 117 6 116 . 3 111. 4 Q4 81. 3 81. 9 8 1 . 21 81.0 Q1 81. 6 8 1 . 01 80.5 82. 0 81, 3 8 80. 9 72. 2 67. 4 80. 3 77. 0 76. 7 79. 9 81. 4 79. 5 75. 6 84. 7 83. 8 80. 81. 73. 67. 82. 78. 78. 81. 82. 75. 0 0 0 2 6 4 6 0 2 7 78. 1 86. 0 84. 0 81. 5| 8 0 . 81 1 7 9 . 41 80. 3| 7 1 . 71 6 6 . 41 8 0 . 31 7 9 . 31 7 6 . 91 8 0 . 81 8 1 . 71 7 5 . 31 78. 7| 84* 4| 83. 5| 8 2 3 2 3 9 0 5 83. 9 80.1 84. 7 93. 8 77. 5 82. 9 89. 3 88. 9 83. 80. 79. 93. 77. 82. 89. 88. 84. 2 85. 6 8 1 . 31 82.6 j • 146. 158. 121. 136. 158. 105. 160, 140. 1 3 8 2 0 4 5 3 1 1 147 . 1 148.. 1 1 1 4 9 . 2 150. 21 159 . 8 16 1.21 162. 6 1 122 . 0 122 • 2 J 1 2 2 . 4 1 136.. 9 137,. 6 J 1 3 8 . 4 1 158 . 8 159 . 7 1 1 6 0 . 6 1 1 0 4 . 6 103 . 8 1 1 0 3 . 0 102. 31 162 . 2 163 . 9 | 1 6 5 . 8 1 141 . 7 143 . 1 | 1 4 4 . 5 145. 81 132. 2 1 3 2 . 6 140, 3 1 4 1 . 0 I 1 80. 8 80. 4 1 78. 1 81.6 80.0 81. 6 79. 8 79.0 78.8 73. 1 67.6 81.9 80.8 75.9 77.2 84.9 84.4 81. 1 83.6 82.4 78. 6 70. 8 81. 76. 73. 83. 80. 7 9 8 1 8 83. 2 82. 8 83. 2 1 83. 80. 87. 93. 76, 83, 89. 89. 1 133 Q2 1 8 l 111 . 1 1 1 1 4 . 2 1 1 3 . 11 117 . 7 J 1 2 0 . 1 118. 41 1 1985 Q3 81. 7 80. 4 132, 6 1 3 2 . 9 I UTILIZATION 1984 Q2 80. I i I • 1 1 1 152. 6 153. 9 155. 2 | 1 5 6 . 5 157. 71 I 1 1 1 0 . 61 108 Q2 1 3 1 . 0 1 3 1 . 2 131. 4|131.6 132. 01 165. 7 167. 6 169. 61171. 4 173. 21 j I 157. 3 158. 8 160. 3| 161. 7 163. 11 139. 139. 9 140. 6 | 1 4 1 . 4 1 1 110. 81 114. 2 113. 1 111. 109. 5 107. 7 106, 01104^ 8 1 123. 2 123, 1 123, 0|123. 0 1 132. 7 132. 8 132. 9 J133. 1 133. 2 | 184. 4 186. 8 189, 31191.8 194. 3 | 212. 7 217. 2 221. 7J225. 5 228. 51 127. 4 129. 1 130. 7J132. 3 133. 91 1 3 1 . 0 133. 2 135. 3|137. 3 139. 21 162. 4 162. 4 162, 51162. 6 1 6 2 . 81 161. 0 162 6 164, 3J166. 0 167. 9 | 143. 0 144, 0 145, H 146. 2 1 4 7 . 4 | • 4 1985 Q1 Q4 a 1 Not*. Data for output are percentages of 1977 output as shown in the Federal Reserve's seasonally adjusted indexes of Industrial production. Capacity is also expressed as a percentage of Q3 149. 5 150. 6 151.71152. 8 154. 01 1 1 2 3 . 4 125. 6 1 2 5 . 81126. 0 1 2 6 . 8 | I I 1 0 7 . 0 107. 6 1 0 7 . 01107. 5 1 0 7 . 1 7| 1 3 3 . 2 136. 3 1 3 7 . 01137. 1 138. 31 i CAPACITY 1984 Q2 1 41 01 71 01 5| 3| 31 41 82.9 79.2 79.4 91.9 78.5 81.8 87.6 87.4 83, 1 83. 9 88. 0 1 4 133. 61 1 1 82. 8 I 84. 1 8 3 . 51 85.5 84. 3 82. 8 133 .01133. 7 134.5i 83. 8 141 .7|142. 8 144, 21 8 2 . 5 8 3 . 01 84. 1 8 2 . 2 1 1 I 1977 actual output. Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to capacity. INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS Table 3 Capacity Utilization Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity 1973 Series High Materials Industrial 92. Durable goods materials 91. Metal materials 99. 106. 95. Raw steel Aluminum Nondurable goods materials Textile, paper, and chemical materials Pulp and paper materials Chemical materials 91. 92. 98. 92. 1975 | 1978 I 1982 Low 1 - 8 0 I Low Hiah I 70.5| I 1 64.4J 1 67.11 1 66.4] 73.01 1 I 66.7! 1 64.81 1 70.61 64.4J I 94. Energy materials 86.91 i Tear 1 ago |^ -12fliL monthI OCT i 1967 89.11 6 8 . 4 | 1 I I 1 89.8| 60.9| J 93.61 4 5 . 7 | I I 98.9| 36.11 97.41 58.81 I I I i 88.1| I 70.61 1 89.41 I 68.6| i 97. 3| 87.91 79.91 I 63.3| I 1 I 94.01 82.2J j 1 82.71 I 1 79.5J 78.9J I 82.8| I 1 80.4| TO. 0| 1985 NOV t DEC I J A N l I flAR I APR 1 MAY > J U H 81.5 8 1 . 3 | 81.7 81.5 81.4 81.0 8 0 . 3 80.0 I I 80.3 80.2 7 9 . 7 | 7 9 . 9 7 9 . 1 7 8 . 9 7 8 . 1 7 7 . 1 7 6 . 5 6 8 . 1 6 8 . 6 68.01 6 8 . 1 68.2 6 9 . 8 68.8 6 7 . 3 66.4 I I 81.91 71.8| 88.9| 86.91 ) 1 l l 83.31 81.81 1 1 83.7J 8 2 . 3 | 63.4 81.2 61.6 80.3 56.7J 80.2| I I 81.4 80.9 80,8! I 82,0 8 1 . 1 8 0 . 7 | l 91.3| 80.91 1 I 89.91 I I FEB 81.3 65.9 78.8 67,2 76.6 68.2 74.2 68.4 73.6 67.9 72.9 80.9 81.1 80.2 80.1 80.1 81.7 82.0 81.4 80.9 80.8 81.1 80.0 I 96.2J 93.7 92.5 93.71 9 3 . 7 9 2 . 6 9 2 . 1 89.9 9 0 . 2 78.21 78.6 7 8 . 8 78.31 8 0 . 1 8 0 . 2 7 9 . 5 79.2 7 9 . 1 1 1 I I 8 9 . 0 ! 83.5 84.8 8 5 . 5 | 8 6 . 6 8 7 . 4 8 8 . 4 8 8 . 4 8 8 . 1 8 8 . 0 1 1 . Table 4 Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted Series Materials Industrial Durable goods materials Metal materials Raw steel Aluminum Nondurable goods materials Textile, paper and chemical materials Pulp and paper materials Chemical materials Energy materials OUTPUT 1985 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 I 114.8 116.0 114.5|115.4 114, 6 I 1 121.9 124,0 123.71 123.6 121. 6 1984 Q2 84.1 82.0 81.4 103.5 70.7 99.1 111.3 111.6 111.8 112.2 127.4 127.7 109.3 110.2 105.3 105.7 80.4| 80.6 79. 2 64.11 70.4 95.91 90.9 I 1 110.9| 110.9 110. 3 j 110.7|111.6 110. 9 I 126.21126.3 110.9|113.2 1 1 101.31105.0 106. 1 1 1 1984 Q.2 Q3 138.9 139.8 151.8 153. 1 119.7 118.8 109.3 107.6 119.6 119.3 135.7 136.3 135. 1 135.7 132.2 133.7 140.6 140.8 118.9 119.3 Definition. This release contains estimates of output, capacity, and capacity utilization for the nation's factories, mines, and electric and gas utilities. Output data are the Federal Reserve's seasonally adjusted indexes of industrial production, which express output as percentages of 1977 output. The capacity estimates are expressed as percentages of 1977 output as well. Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to capacity. The capacity indexes are based on a variety of data, including capacity data in physical units compiled by trade associations, private and government surveys of capacity growth and utilization rates, and estimates of capital stock growth. The concept of practical capacity is applied, which is defined as the greatest level of output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work pattern, taking account of normal.i|p^n|lr^e;4nd^s8urj^(jg.:«ufficl9nt::avaHabiUty;af*inpu^ to operate machinery and equipment in place. When the capacity indexes for individual industries are aggregated—for example to total manufacturing—no explicit account is taken of possible general equilibrium constraints such as emerging industry bottlenecks. Because of the large and heterogeneous database, changes in utilization rates may be more meaningful in the analysis of business conditions than any particular level of these rates. Groupings. Estimates of capacity and industrial production for manufacturing industries are aggregated to primary processing and advanced processing industries, to durable and nondurable manufacturing industries, and to total manufacturing. The mining, manufacturing, and utilities estimates aggregate to the total index. Industrial materials are items produced and used as inputs by manufacturing plants, mines, and utilities. Industrial materials include many of the items included in the primary processing grouping of manufacturing, as well as some of the output of the advanced processing industries, mines, and utilities—such as iron ore, crude oil, semiconductors, and electricity sold to industry. CAPACITY 1985 Q4 Q1 1 140.7J141.6 I I 154.4J 155.9 • 117.8|117.3 1 105.8J 104.9 119,0}118.8 1 1 136.81137.3 | 136.21136.7 j 135.31 136. 1 141.1|141.5 I 1 119.71120.0 1 Q2 1984 Q2 142. 5 82.6 157. 80.3 117. 3 70.2 74.5 86.6 137. 8 82.0 137. 0 82.7 96.4 77.8 88.6 120. 3 I UTILIZATION 1985 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 83.0 81.4} 8 1 . 5 1 1 81.0 80.1J 7 9 . 3 | 69.0 68.21 6 8 . 7 1 6 5 . 7 60.6J 6 7 . 1 8 3 . 0 80.61 7 6 . 5 1 1 81.9 81.01 8 0 . 7 | 82.7 81.31 8 1 . 7 | 95.5 93.3| 9 2 . 8 78.3 78.61 8 0 . 0 I 88.6 1 8 4 . 6 | 87.5 1 Q2 80.4 77.2 67.5 80.1 80.9 88.2 Perspective. The historical highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in the tables above are specific to each series and did not all occur in the same month. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For mining, manufacturing, and utilities as a whole, and for total manufacturing, utilization rates as high as 90 percent have been exceeded only in wartime. Revisions. The first estimates for a month are published about the 17th of the following month. These estimates may revise in each of the next three months as new data become available. After the fourth month no further revisions are undertaken until an annual or benchmark revision. The median of the revisions in the total manufacturing utilization rate between the first and fourth estimate is 0.3 of a percentage point; that is, in about half of the cases, the absolute value of the revision from the first to the fourth estimate is less than 0.3 of a percentage point. Sources. The basic methodologies used to estimate the series is discussed in Federal Reserve Measures of Capacity and Capacity Utilization, February 1978. An article, scheduled to be forthcoming in the October Federal Reserve Bulletin, describes the revisions and expansions In the series. Revised data from 1948-84 are included in the statistical supplement to the July 1985 capacity utilization release, which may be obtained from Publications Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. 20551. Rounding. Utilization rates are calculated from unrounded capacity and production indexes. Aggregates are derived from unrounded detailed components. Release schedule for 1985. Approximately 11 a.m. on January 16, February 19, March 18, April 17, May 16, June 17, July 19, August 16, September 16, October 16, November 18, and December 16.