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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.3(402) For Immediate release CAPACITY UTILIZATION Manufacturing, Mining, Utilities, and Industrial Materials August 16, 1985 Capacity u t i l i z a t i o n in manufacturing, mining, and u t i l i t i e s is estimated to be unchanged at 80.8 percent in July. This overall operating rate has held steady for four months, after declining 1.2 percentage points between August 1984 and April of this year. The rtanufacturing and mining operating rates were also v i r t u a l l y unchanged in July while the rate for u t i l i t i e s f e l l by nearly a percentage point. Neither durable nor nondurable manufacturing industries had s i g n i ficant u t i l i z a t i o n rate changes in July. But both primary metals and automobile manufacturing showed substantial u t i l i z a t i o n rate gains of around three percentage points. These increases brought the rates for these industries closer to their levels of earlier in the year, after having been relatively low in May and June. For many other industries within manufacturing there were small declines in July in u t i l i z a t i o n , which l e f t the overall manufacturing rate unchanged. Capacity u t i l i z a t i o n in materials production also remained the same in July. Utilization for both durable and nondurable goods materials rose s l i g h t l y while the rate for energy materials f e l l 0.5 percentage point. Capacity Utilization: Summary Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted &0V 1967 -84 Avg* . APE 86.9 69.5 81.7 80*8 80.8 80.8 80.8 69.9 67.9 71.8 86.5 86.3 68.0 63.7 74.4 80.7 78.8 83.5 80. 5 78.9 83.0 ao.4 78.5 83.3 80.4 78.4 83.4 80.4 78*4 83.5 92.8 95«6 87.8 82.9 95.2 88.5 76.9 78*0 88.0 88.1 82.1 84.6 82.4 84.7 82.5 83.9 82.6 83.0 92.0 70.5 89.1 68.4 82*7 80.9 80.2 80.3 80.3 1973 Higti 1975 88.6 72.1 Manufacturing Durable Nondurable 87.? 87.4 88. 8 Mining Utilities Series T o t a l 8m§ai$t§y industrial Materials 1978 -80 1982 1985 I BIT ! JOH CAPACITY UTILIZATION JULY DATA SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, PERCENT 110 TOTAL INDUSTRY TOTAL MATERIALS 90 70 I ! I 50 110 I ! MINING UTILITIES 90 v/ MANUFACTURING V / __ 70 50 110 MANUFACTURING REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 90 NONDURABLE 70 J iI. ! I i . iI ! i 50 110 MOTOR VEHICLES AND PARTS 90 70 50 30 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 MANUFACTURING, MINING AND UTILITIES Table 1 Capacity Utilization Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity 1973 | 1975 | 1978 1 1982 | 1967 1 Teat | Series H i g h | Low | - 8 0 1 Low | - 8 4 1 ago 1 | Hiqh 1 | Avq. 1 Bonthi J 1 1 72.11 i 8 6 . 91 I 69.51 1 51 1 11 11 • 1 31 61 Total Industry 88.6| Manufacturing 87.71 69.91 86. 91.9| 86.0| I 68.3| 89. 85. • 88.81 85.81 92.11 95.6| 86.6J 99.6| 97.51 86.4| 86. 67.9| 86. 67.l| 67.0J 9 7 . H 66.6g 400. 3 | 9 1 . 1| 62.1] 87. 4| 64.7| 86. 0| 66.21 63.71 8 9 . 91 9 3 . 31 52.7| 1 9 3 . 31 8 7 . 11 69.6( 74.91 8 8 . 9 | 69.01 8 1 . 08 1 • 71.81 8 7 . I 8 5 . 011| 77.6| 8 8 . 31 58.9| 67.7| 92.71 6 9 . 2 | 8 2 . 91 9 1 . 71 83.7| 6 9 . «l 59.5| 72.31 9 2 . 4 | Mining 92.81 87.81 Utilities Electric utilities 95.6| 98.71 82.9| 83.0| Durable manufacturing Stone, clay and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel, subtotal Nonferrous metals, subtotal Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Automobiles Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp. Instruments Other durables 87.4| 89.3| 101.91 105.8| 95. 61 85.01 89.0| 85.7| 97. 11 J 77.01 89.2J * 1 Nondurable manufacturing Food and kindred products Textile mill products Paper and products Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Other nondurables 1 81.3 81.11 8 1 . 1 80.9 81.0 80.8 80.8 80.8 80.8 81.7| 81.2 80.9| 80.7 80.4 80.5 80.5 80.4 80.4 80.4 65.1| 69.5| 8 1 . 71 8 0 . 21 81.7| 81.6| 81.7 80.9 80.9| 81.6 80.61 80.2 81.5 79.8 81.8 79.8 82.1 79.7 81.5 79.9 81.9 79.7 82.5 79.5 63.7| 62.91 45.8| 37.6| 60.81 61.3| 62.9| 66.91 47.01 36.61 70.7| 77.8| 69.1| 78. 77. 80. 80. 81. 77. 78. 78. 77. 79. 8| 81.5| 71.0| 63.7| 83.3| 78.1| 78.5| 81.2| 82.0| 77.9| 77.6J 86.0| 84.0| 79.5 80.8 72.3 67.1 80.9 79.3 77.0 80.7 82.3 75.3 78.4 84.4 83.6 79.3 79.8 73.5 67.6 82.9 80.0 76.0 78.4 85.8 85.6 80.3 83.8 82.6 78.7 78.1 72.1 65.4 83.1 80.8 75.5 76.8 85.0 83.7 80.8 83.5 82.3 78.9 78.6 73.7 69.9 79.8 81.6 76.0 76.4 83.8 83.8 82.2 83.4 82.2 78.9 80.6 73.4 68.8 80.7 82.0 76.9 74.2 83.2 82.8 82.4 82.8 83.2 78.5 81.7 69.2 62.7 79.6 81.4 76.9 74. 1 82.6 80.5 82.9 82.8 83.4 78.4 81.7 70.8 65.4 79.5 81.4 76.1 73.9 82.3 79.2 83.7 82.7 83.0 78.4 84.4| 80.3| 86.7| 93.81 77.5| 83.0| 90.3| 90.21 83.6 79.8 79.5 92.8 77.8 83.1 89.4 89.0 79.31 79.41 70.3| 65.4| 78.3| 79.61 76. 1| 80.7) 83.5| 80.2| 79.4| 84.3| 83.1| 1 83.1| 79.8| 77.51 93.4| 77.1| 81.8} 89. 1| 88.4| 82.8 79. 1 76.5 92.9 78.1 81.4 88.4 87.3 83.0 79.6 80.5 91.3 78.4 81.5 87.9 87.4 82.9 78.8 81.1 91.5 78.7 82.4 86.5 87.6 83.0 80.0 80.6 90.1 78.0 85.1 86.6 87.4 83.3 80.2 81.5 89.2 79.0 85.3 86.0 87.9 83.4 80.1 82.3 91.2 79.2 83.5 85.9 87.9 83.5 86.4| 81.7 81.7| 82.9 82.1 82.8 82.1 82.4 62.5 82.6 82.9| 82.51 84.3 63.8 • 83.81 84.7 8 2 . 8 | 83.5 86.7 85.4 85.0 63.4 84.6 82.9 84.7 82.9 83.9 81.9 83.0 80.9 1 61 6| 5| 11 3| 7| 7| 5| 74.4J 76.5| 70.6| 80«8| 67.6| 69.7| 71.2| 78.9| 61 i 7 6 . 21 83.4| 8 1 . 71 i I 83. 51 6 2 . 51 8 4 . 51 8 8 . 2| 7 8 . 71 8 7 . 91 8 4 . 51 8 6 . 01 95.21 76.9| 8 8 . 01 88. 5| 87. 6| 1 76.01 78.21 1 8 8 . 11 8 9 . 01 a 1985 DEC 1 JAN 1 FEB 1 HAS 1 APB 1 BAT 1 JUN 1 JUL 68.01 • Primary processing Advanced processing 1984 MOV 1 1 1 8 1 . 71 1 8 0 . 7| i 82.0| • 73.6 81.5 75.4 73.5 82.7 82.2 83.5 82.4 82.6 84.5 88.2 Table 2 Output/Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted OUTPUT | CAPACITY 1984 Q2 Q2 126.81 • 108.1| 138.21 Durable manufacturing Stone, clay and glass products Primary metals Iron and steel, subtotal Nonferrous metals, subtotal Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Automobiles Aerospace and misc. trans, eqp. Instruments Other durables 125.6 125.8|126.0 I 107.0 107.6 107.0|107.5 133.2 136.3 137.0|137. 1 1 123.9 127.1 127.3|127.7 112.5 113.4 112.9J 111. 5 82.4 82.5 80.2| 81.2 73.8 72.4 70.41 70.9 98.9 101.7 98.8|100.7 102.2 104.2 105.4|107.5 141.5 146.8 1«5.6| 145.5 169.9 176.1 179.2J174.1 103.8 106.1 106.7|112.3 104.2 100.7 101.9|115.9 122.8 126.8 127.9|131.8 136.3 139.8 138.7|138.8 119.8 121. 1 121.2|120.5 128.11 115.71 78.8| 68.4| 98.3| 108.61 149.01 169.31 110.71 112.5| 135. 1| 138.91 122.6| 149.5 150.6 151.7|152.8 1 152.6 153.9 155.2|156.5 • 131.0 131.2 131.4|131.6 165.7 167.6 169.6| 171.4 • 157.3 158.8 160.31161.7 139.1 139.9 140.6|141.4 114.2 113. 1 111.9|111. 1 109.5 107.7 106.0|104.8 123.2 123. 1 123.0|123.0 132.7 132.6 132.9|133.1 184.4 166.8 189.31191.8 212.7 217.2 221.7|225.5 127.4 129. 1 130.7|132.3 131.0 133.2 135.31137.3 162.4 162.4 162.5|162.6 161.0 162.6 164.3(166.0 143.0 144.0 145. 11 146.2 Nondurable manufacturing Food and kindred products Textile mill products Paper and products Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Other nondurables 122.4 127.0 106.3 127.0 120.5 88.5 142.8 125.5 125.01 131.4| 100.01 125.51 127.21 86.6| 144.81 127.91 146. 1 158.3 121.8 136.2 158.0 105.4 160.5 140.3 Total Industry 1985 1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 | 1 1 1 2 1 . 5 123.4 123.l|123.8 124.41 i Manufacturing 123.4 Series Primary processing Advanced processing 123.4 127.9 103.3 128.4 123.0 86.8 144.9 126.0 I 1984 Q4 03 147.1 159.8 122.0 136.9 158.8 104.6 162.2 141.7 1985 01 02 1 1 1 154.01 Q3 04 81.9 1 81.21 81.0 80.8 81.9 79.8 Q1 02 157.71 1 132.0| 173.21 • 163.1| 142.31 1 10.8| 104.31 122.91 133.21 194.31 228.5( 133.91 139.21 162.81 167.9| 147.41 80.8 81.6 81.7 80.4 82.0 81.3 8 1 . 0 | 80.5 1 81.51 81.6 80.81 80.0 78.8 80.9 72.2 67.4 80.3 77.0 76.7 79.9 81.4 79.5 75.6 64.7 83.8 80.0 81.0 73.0 67.2 82.6 78.4 78.6 81.0 82.2 75.7 78.1 86.0 84.0 79. 4 J 80.31 71.7| 66.41 80.3| 79.31 76.9| 80.8| 81.7| 75.3| 78.7| 84.4| 83.5| 79.0 78.8 73. 1 67.6 81.9 80.8 75.9 77.2 84.9 84.4 81.1 83.6 82.4 78.6 81.3 71-1 65.6 79.9 81.6 76.7 74. 1 82.7 80.8 83.0 82.7 83.2 83.8 80.2 87.3 93.2 76.3 83.9 89.0 89.5 83.9 80.1 84.7 93.8 77.5 82.9 89.3 88.9 82.9 79.2 79.4 91.9 78.5 81.8 87.6 87.4 83.2 80. 1 81.5 90.2 78.8 84.6 86.2 87.8 84.2 8 5.6 83.4| 80.01 79.7| 93.0| 77.5| 82.3| 89.31 88.4| 1 81.3| 84.3 83.8 82.8 82.5 8 3 . 5 | 85.5 83.01 84. 1 148.1|149.2 161.2|162.6 122.2|122.4 137.61138.4 159.7J160.6 103.8|103.0 163.9|165.8 143.1|144.5 Mining 110.01 150.21 164.01 122.71 139.1| 161.58 102.3| 167.91 145.8J • 132.6 132.9 133.1|133.4 133.61 Utilities Electric utilities 111.4 109.8 111.1|114.2 113.61 117.6 116.3 117.7|120.1 119.01 132.2 132.6 133.0|133.7 134.51 140.3 141.0 141.7|142.8 144.21 Q2 81.3 • 123.5(123.6 128.91128.7 97.4| 97.2 128.01127.2 123.7J126.0 85.41 84.3 146.4|145.3 126.51126.3 • 111.7 T13.8 108.3|110. 1 Note. Data for output are percentages of 1977 output as shown in the Federal Reserve's seasonally adjusted indexes of Industrial production. Capacity is also expressed as a percentage of 0TILIZATIOH 1985 1984 80.4 i 82.6 62.3 84.4 82.5 1977 actual output. Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to capacity. INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS Table 3 Capacity Utilization Monthly, seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity Series Materials Industrial 1973 | 1975 High | Low I 92.0| I Durable goods materials Metal materials Raw steel Aluminum Nondurable goods materials Textile, paper, and chemical materials Pulp and p«p«r materials Chemical materials Energy materials 91.81 I 99.21 I 106.01 95.71 I 9 1 . 1| I 92.8| I 98.4| 92.51 I I 94.61 I 70.5| I I 64.41 I 67.1| I 66.4| 73.0| 4 I 66.7| I 64.81 I 70.61 64.41 I 86.9(I 1967 | Tear | 1978 | 1982 -84 | ago |_ -80 | Low ATQ. I •onthl High I I I I 89. 1| 68. 4 | 82.7| 83.0| I I I I I I I I 89.81 60.9| 79.5| 80.91 I I I 45.7J 78.9| 68.81 93.6| I I I 98.91 36.1| 68.91 81.9| 58.8| 97.4| 88.9| 8 4 . 2 | I « I I I I 83.31 82.01 88.11 70.6| I I I I 83.7| 82.6| 89.4| 68.6| I I I 97.31 79.9| 91.31 96. 51 80.9| 63.3| 87.9| 77.5J I I I I I I I 89.9| 94.01 82.2| 88.9| 1985 1984 MO7 I DEC I JAW I PEB I BAB 1 APB I HAT I 81.5 JUL JUH I 81.31 81.7 81.5 8 1 . 4 80.9 8 0 . 2 B0.3 I 80.3 79.9 79.1 78.9 78.3 76.7 76.9 77.1 68.1 68.2 69.9 66.4 69.1 70.0 65.9 78.8 67.2 68.2 76.6 74.2 68.4 73.6 67.9 67.4 72.9 72.0 80.9 79.71 I 68.01 I 56.7| 80.21 I I 80.81 80.9 81.1 80.2 80.2 80.8 81.1 80.7| 81.7 82.0 81.4 80.7 80.9 80.7 81.0 80.2 68.6 61.6 80.3 92.5 78.8 84.8 I 93.7| 93.7 78.31 80.1 I I 85.5| 86.6 69.8 80.8 80.9 92.6 92.1 89.1 89.6 89.9 80.2 79.5 79.2 79.2 78.8 87.4 88.4 87.6 87.7 87.5 87.0 Table 4 Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization Quarterly, seasonally adjusted Series Materials Industrial Durable goods materials 80.3 OTILIZATIOi 1985 Q4 Q1 1 83.0 8 1 . 4 | 8 1 . 5 1 1 81.0 8 0 . 11 7 9 . 3 119.7 1985 1 Qi Q2 ! 1 1 139.8 140.7|141.6 142.51 I \ 1 1 153. 1 154.4|155.9 157.4J 1 118.8 117.81117.3 117.31 70.2 69.0 6 8 . 21 6 8 . 7 64.1| 70.4 71.21 95.9| 90.9 8 6 . 4 | 1 1 1 1 111.01 110.9|110.9 111.3 111.6 • 1 111.8 112.2 110.7| 111.6 no. 7j 109.3 119.6 107.6 119.3 74.5 86.6 65.7 83.0 60. 61 67. 80. 61 76. 5 135.7 136.3 82.0 81.9 1 at.oi 80. 7 135.1 135.7 105.8|104.9 104.9| 119.0|118.8 118.61 1 I 1 136.81137.3 137.81 • 136.21136.7 137.01 82.7 82.7 8 1 . 31 8 1 . 7 80.8 127.4 127.7 126.21126.3 122.01 109.3 110.2 110.9|113.2 112.31 \ 1 8 105.3 105.7 101.31 105.0 105.4| 132.2 140.6 133.7 140.8 96.4 77.8 95.5 78.3 93. 31 92. 8 78. 61 80. 0 89.5 79. 1 118.9 119.3 135.3|136.« 136.21 141.1|141.5 142.01 1 1 1 1 120.31 119.7|120.0 88.6 88.6 8 4 . 6| 1984 Q2 Raw steel Aluminum 81.4 103.5 Pulp and paper materials Chemical materials Energy materials Q4 1985 Q1 Q2 1 1 I 1984 Q2 138.9 151.8 • 84.1 Textile, paper and chemical materials 00TP0T 114.8 116.0 114.5|115.4 114.61 1 1 1 1 121.7J 121.9 124.0 123.7|123.6 Metal materials Nondurable goods materials Q3 82.0 80.4) 80.6 80.3| 1 Q4 1984 Q2 82.6 Q3 Q2 80.5 77.3 • 1 68.5 • 70.7 99.1 Definition. This release contains estimates of output, capacity, and capacity utilization for the nations factories, mines, and electric and gas utilities. Output data are the Federal Reserve's seasonally adjusted indexes of industrial production, which express output as percentages of 1977 output. The capacity estimates are expressed as percentages of 1977 output as well. Capacity utilization percentages are calculated as ratios of production to capacity. The capacity indexes are based on a variety of data, including capacity data in physical units compiled by trade associations, private and government surveys of capacity growth and utilization rates, and estimates of capital stock growth. The concept of practical capacity is applied, which is defined as the greatest level of output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work pattern, taking account of normal downtime, and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate machinery and equipment in place. When the capacity indexes for individual industries are aggregated—for example to total manufacturing—no explicit account is taken of possible general equilibrium constraints such as emerging industry bottlenecks. Because of the large and heterogeneous database, changes in utilization rates may be more meaningful in the analysis of business conditions than any particular level of these rates. Groupings. Estimates of capacity and industrial production for manufacturing industries are aggregated to primary processing and advanced processing industries, to durable and nondurable manufacturing industries, and to total manufacturing. The mining, manufacturing, and utilities estimates aggregate to the total index. Industrial materials are items produced and used as inputs by manufacturing plants, mines, and utilities. Industrial materials include many of the items included in the primary processing grouping of manufacturing, as well as some of the output of the advanced processing industries, mines, and utilities—such as iron ore, crude oil, semiconductors, and electricity sold to industry. CAPACITT Q3 8 67.9 72.9 1 • i 80.6 1 1 87. 5 87.6 Perspective. The historical highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in the tables above are specific to each series and did not all occur in the same month. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates Has ever reached 100 percent. For mining, manufacturing, and utilities as a whole, and for total manufacturing, utilization rates as high as 90 percent have been exceeded only in wartime. Revisions. The first estimates for a month are published about the 17th of the following month. These estimates may revise in each of the next three months as new data become available. After the fourth month no further revisions are undertaken until an annual or benchmark revision. The median of the revisions in the total manufacturing utilization rate between the first and fourth estimate is 0.3 of a percentage point; that is, in about half of the cases, the absolute value of the revision from the first to the fourth estimate is less than 0.3 of a percentage point: Sources. The basic methodologies used to estimate the series is discussed in Federal Reserve Measures of Capacity and Capacity Utilization, February 1978. An article, scheduled to be forthcoming in the October Federal Reserve Bulletin, describes the revisions and expansions in the series. Revised data from 1948-84 are included in the statistical supplement to the July 1985 capacity utilization release, which may be obtained from Publications Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington. D.C. 20551. Rounding. Utilization rates are calculated from unrounded capacity and production indexes. Aggregates are derived from unrounded detailed components. Release schedule for 1985. Approximately 11 a.m. on January 16, February 19. March 18. April 17, May 16, June 17. July 19. August 16, September 16. October 16, November 18. and December 16.
@FedFRASER