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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EDT) September 16, 2009 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial output rose 0.8 percent in August, following an upwardly revised increase of 1.0 percent in July. Production in manufacturing expanded 0.6 percent in August, and the index excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4 percent. The gain in July for manufacturing was revised up 0.4 percentage point, to (over) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY Seasonally adjusted 2002=100 Percent change 2009 Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 97.7 97.7 97.2 97.0 96.1 95.9 95.8 95.5 96.7 96.0 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 101.6 98.3 110.6 91.4 82.7 96.5 100.7 97.7 108.7 91.1 82.0 96.2 99.4 96.7 106.4 90.4 82.0 95.2 99.0 96.4 105.9 90.5 82.0 94.7 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 96.1 96.0 98.7 106.1 95.6 95.4 96.1 106.4 94.7 94.4 95.0 104.3 Industrial production Total index Previous estimates 2009 Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 97.4 -1.6 -1.6 -.6 -.7 -1.1 -1.1 -.4 -.4 1.0 .5 .8 -10.7 99.9 97.1 107.0 90.7 82.5 95.9 101.0 98.4 107.6 91.1 82.5 96.4 -1.1 -.4 -2.6 -1.9 -2.3 -2.0 -.9 -.6 -1.7 -.4 -.9 -.3 -1.2 -1.0 -2.1 -.8 .1 -1.0 -.4 -.4 -.5 .1 .0 -.5 .9 .8 1.1 .2 .7 1.3 1.1 1.3 .6 .4 .0 .6 -7.3 -4.1 -14.7 -13.2 -18.5 -13.0 94.4 93.9 94.1 103.8 95.7 94.8 94.7 102.2 96.3 -1.7 -1.7 -2.6 -.3 -.5 -.7 -2.7 .3 -.9 -1.0 -1.1 -2.0 -.3 -.6 -.9 -.5 1.4 1.0 .6 -1.6 .6 -12.2 .5 1.9 -10.5 -.1 Percent of capacity 200102 2008 2009 low Aug. Mar.r 95.2 104.1 Average 19722008 198889 high 199091 low 199495 high Total industry Previous estimates 80.9 85.1 78.7 84.9 73.5 77.6 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 79.6 85.4 77.2 84.5 71.4 75.3 87.6 86.8 86.5 92.8 83.8 84.2 89.1 93.3 84.9 84.2 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.6 82.0 77.7 88.3 86.5 83.0 84.7 77.9 77.2 89.9 87.9 80.3 81.7 74.3 70.0 Capacity utilization Aug. ’08 to Aug. ’09 Capacity growth Aug. ’08 to Aug. ’09 Apr.r Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 69.5 69.5 69.2 69.0 68.5 68.3 68.3 68.1 69.0 68.5 69.6 -.5 65.7 65.6 82.7 80.9 65.2 65.0 81.8 79.2 65.1 64.7 81.1 78.7 66.1 65.4 81.7 77.3 66.6 -.7 91.8 80.2 66.0 65.9 84.9 80.8 82.2 78.7 -.1 1.8 88.3 77.1 73.7 79.5 67.1 68.2 79.4 66.9 67.6 79.5 65.9 67.0 79.5 65.8 66.7 80.0 66.3 67.7 80.7 66.7 68.5 -.6 -.7 .0 r Revised. p Preliminary. Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS. 1 1.4 percent; in addition, factory output for April through June is now somewhat less weak than reported previously. Production at mines moved up 0.5 percent in August. The output of utilities gained 1.9 percent, as temperatures swung from an unseasonably mild July to a slightly warmer-than-usual August. At 97.4 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 10.7 percent below its level of a year earlier. In August, the capacity utilization rate for total industry advanced to 69.6 percent, a level 11.3 percentage points below its average for the period 1972 through 2008. Market Groups The output of consumer goods strengthened 1.3 percent in August, as the production indexes for both durables and nondurables climbed. The gain in consumer durables was the result of an increase in automotive products. The indexes for the other major categories of durables registered losses: Home electronics fell 1.4 percent; appliances, furniture, and carpeting declined 0.8 percent; and miscellaneous goods decreased 1.0 percent. The output of nondurable consumer goods rose 1.1 percent because of advances in both the energy and non-energy sectors. The index for non-energy consumer nondurable goods jumped 1.2 percent, with gains in all of its major components. The production indexes for foods and tobacco and for clothing moved up more than 1.5 percent, while the indexes for chemical products and for paper products recorded smaller gains. The production of consumer energy goods increased 0.8 percent. The index for business equipment rose 0.6 percent in August, following a gain of 1.1 percent in July. Within business equipment, the output of transit equipment increased 2.3 percent in August, and the output of industrial and other equipment rose 0.8 percent; these gains more than offset a decline of 0.8 percent in information processing equipment. The output of transit equipment was boosted by advances in motor vehicles and aircraft. The decrease in the production of information processing equipment principally resulted from declines in electromedical equipment and in search and navigation equipment. The index for defense and space equipment was unchanged, following a gain of nearly 2 percent in July. After a revised increase of 0.7 percent in July, the output of construction supplies was unchanged in August. The index for business supplies advanced 0.6, percent primarily as a result of a gain in sales by utilities to commercial businesses. The production of materials rose 0.6 percent, with gains in nondurable and energy materials outweighing a small loss in durables. Within the category of durable materials, equipment parts fell 0.4 percent, consumer parts slipped 0.2 percent, and other durable materials inched up 0.1 percent. Nondurable materials increased 0.8 percent with the advances widespread; the indexes for textiles, paper, and chemical materials all rose. Energy materials increased 1.2 percent; a gain in electricity generation accounted for almost 1 percentage point of the advance. Industry Groups Production in manufacturing expanded 0.6 percent in August, and the factory operating rate increased to 66.6 percent, a rate 13.0 percentage points below its 1972–2008 average. The upward revision to manufacturing production in July was led by output gains for steel products and high-tech products that were stronger than previously reported, while much of the upward revision for April through June reflected higher production of chemicals. The output of durable goods moved up 0.5 percent in August. The index for motor vehicles and parts advanced 5.5 percent, after increasing 20.1 percent in July. Nevertheless, in August this index stood more than 20 percent below its year-earlier level. Primary metals; machinery; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; and miscellaneous manufacturing all posted gains between 1/2 and 1 percent. However, the output of nonmetallic mineral products dropped 1.9 percent, and the indexes for wood products and for computer and 2 electronic products both contracted 0.8 percent. The output of nondurable goods rose 0.7 percent, with mixed results across components. The index for food, beverage, and tobacco products expanded 1.6 percent. Less sizable gains were recorded for textile and product mills, apparel and leather, chemicals, and plastics and rubber products. The indexes for paper and for printing and related support activities each edged down 0.2 percent, while the index for petroleum and coal products fell 0.5 percent because of lower refinery output. The index for other manufacturing (non-NAICS), which consists of publishing and logging, rose 0.9 percent in August. The index for utilities increased 1.9 percent, primarily as a result of a gain in the output of electricity. The operating rate for utilities climbed 1.4 percentage points, to 78.7 percent. Mining production moved up 0.5 percent, and the utilization rate rose to 82.2 percent, a rate 5.4 percentage points below its 1972–2008 average. Capacity utilization rates at industries grouped by stage of process were as follows: For the crude stage, utilization increased 0.7 percentage point, to 80.7 percent, a rate nearly 6 percentage points below its 1972–2008 average; for the primary and semifinished stages, utilization moved up 0.4 percentage point, to 66.7 percent, a rate 15.3 percentage points below its long-run average; and for the finished stage, utilization increased 0.8 percentage point, to 68.5 percent, a rate 9.2 percentage points below its long-run average. Note: This release includes the G.17 publication schedule for 2010. Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change Motor Vehicle Assemblies Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Industrial Capacity Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups Historical Statistics: Total Industry Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Further detail is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). 3 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization 160 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Total Manufacturing 135 160 135 110 Capacity 110 85 85 Production Detail: 2005 to present 60 Production 118 60 114 110 106 102 98 94 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 90 2005 2010 Percent of capacity 100 90 35 100 90 Utilization 80 80 70 70 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 60 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 4 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization Consumer goods Equipment Ratio scale, 2002=100 115 110 115 110 105 105 Nondurable 100 100 95 95 90 90 Durable 85 85 80 80 75 75 140 130 130 120 120 Business 110 110 100 100 Defense and Space 90 70 Ratio scale, 2002=100 140 90 70 80 120 120 115 115 120 115 110 110 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 1998 2000 2002 2004 Nonindustrial supplies 110 2006 2008 Ratio scale, 2002=100 Construction 105 100 100 95 95 Other business 85 80 1998 2000 2002 2004 Capacity utilization 2006 2008 2000 2002 Industrial materials 105 90 1998 2004 2006 2008 80 Ratio scale, 2002=100 120 115 Non-energy 90 90 Energy 90 85 85 85 80 80 80 75 1998 2000 2002 2004 Capacity utilization Percent of capacity 2006 2008 75 Percent of capacity 90 95 85 90 80 80 85 75 75 80 70 75 75 65 70 70 60 65 90 Primary and semifinished processing 85 Excluding utilities 70 65 60 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 95 Crude processing 90 85 80 Finished processing 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 65 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 5 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 125 115 125 115 Excluding high-technology industries 95 95 75 75 Total IP 55 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 55 1990 1995 Industrial production 2000 2005 2010 35 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1970 1975 Industrial production 1980 1985 Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 100 Computers 2000 2005 2010 95 -15 Percent of capacity 100 100 200 150 Communications eq. 1995 -10 Capacity utilization 400 300 400 300 200 150 1990 -5 Excluding high-technology industries 95 85 85 75 75 100 50 50 65 65 High-technology industries 10 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 55 55 Semiconductors 10 45 1990 1995 2000 2005 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 6 2010 45 Table 1 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item 2008 proportion1 Juner Julyr Aug.p 100.00 1.8 1.8 -6.7 -13.0 -19.0 -10.5 -1.6 -.6 -1.1 -.4 1.0 .8 -10.7 57.05 29.54 6.32 2.88 .34 .99 2.11 23.22 17.12 9.39 .42 5.09 1.70 6.10 1.1 .1 -3.2 -5.2 8.8 -5.6 -.7 1.2 1.6 .0 -4.8 5.8 .1 -.1 .8 .2 1.1 3.2 15.3 -5.1 -1.0 -.1 -.9 1.1 -.5 -4.2 -1.8 1.9 -5.8 -4.2 -17.2 -22.4 1.6 -20.4 -10.9 -.4 -1.8 -1.2 -6.7 -2.2 -4.1 3.6 -10.1 -3.8 -28.8 -32.9 -15.1 -33.7 -22.9 3.8 -4.4 -1.9 -19.7 -6.2 -9.5 28.8 -16.9 -12.5 -40.8 -58.0 -7.4 -20.9 -26.8 -4.2 -5.7 -5.2 -23.8 -2.3 -13.3 -.8 -10.6 -6.3 -7.2 2.6 -25.2 -10.6 -12.7 -6.1 -3.8 -.6 -12.4 -3.6 -20.8 -12.4 -1.3 -.4 -.1 3.1 -2.4 -2.2 -2.5 -.4 -.3 .0 .0 .8 -4.9 -.9 -.8 -.6 -.1 -.6 -2.5 1.3 .2 -.7 -1.0 -.9 .2 -1.2 -2.4 .4 -1.1 -1.0 -2.8 -4.4 -3.3 -1.4 -1.5 -.6 .1 1.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.1 -2.7 -.3 -.4 -1.2 -2.1 -1.5 -3.1 .6 -.2 -.1 -1.0 -5.4 1.7 1.6 -.4 .7 .8 7.8 17.1 -.8 1.4 1.5 -.8 -.4 -.6 3.7 -.7 -.2 -1.9 .9 1.3 2.1 5.8 -1.4 -.8 -1.0 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.1 .6 .3 .8 -8.9 -4.1 -13.0 -8.1 -16.1 -18.8 -16.0 -1.9 -2.8 -1.1 -14.1 -2.3 -10.9 -.4 9.48 1.53 2.92 5.03 1.66 7.4 9.2 10.8 4.8 -1.9 2.3 -1.4 6.6 1.1 5.7 -8.4 -29.0 2.0 -7.4 -.5 -18.1 -45.7 -8.5 -14.3 .4 -14.3 49.1 -13.3 -27.1 -2.4 -20.4 -23.9 -6.3 -27.1 .7 -2.6 -1.9 -.6 -4.1 .7 -1.7 -3.7 .2 -2.3 -.2 -2.1 -3.2 -.9 -2.6 .6 -.5 -.6 -.1 -.7 .2 1.1 4.4 .8 .2 1.9 .6 2.3 -.8 .8 .0 -14.7 -15.4 -7.3 -18.7 1.2 4.87 10.65 -3.3 .4 -1.0 1.3 -11.6 -6.9 -26.3 -13.2 -33.7 -18.6 -10.8 -9.7 -2.3 -1.7 -.9 -.2 .1 -1.1 .0 .2 .7 .0 .0 .6 -18.5 -10.8 42.95 28.99 16.83 2.69 5.93 8.21 12.16 .50 2.32 5.87 13.96 2.7 1.4 .4 -5.7 6.9 -1.8 3.1 -11.5 1.8 6.9 5.5 3.2 3.5 4.7 -2.2 10.3 3.2 1.8 -6.9 -1.4 4.3 2.5 -7.9 -12.0 -12.0 -20.3 -6.5 -12.9 -12.0 -13.7 -10.8 -15.8 .2 -16.6 -27.3 -32.3 -38.5 -29.0 -32.7 -19.7 -27.6 -23.4 -21.1 7.3 -21.8 -30.2 -40.2 -63.7 -29.8 -38.6 -14.6 -32.5 -25.4 -9.6 -4.6 -10.4 -9.5 -21.3 -26.6 -17.6 -22.5 7.1 -6.7 -5.0 20.2 -12.3 -2.0 -2.7 -3.3 -3.2 -2.2 -4.2 -1.9 -2.4 -4.9 -1.7 -.8 -.3 .2 -1.0 -.1 -.5 -1.6 1.5 2.5 -1.0 4.3 -1.2 -1.0 -1.0 -2.6 -5.5 -2.9 -1.6 .9 -1.3 2.7 .0 -1.1 -.5 -.3 -1.0 -5.5 -.7 .1 .4 .6 1.7 .8 -.9 1.3 2.0 3.5 12.7 2.1 2.1 .2 -3.2 .0 .9 -.3 .6 .3 -.1 -.2 -.4 .1 .8 .7 .2 1.1 1.2 -13.0 -17.5 -23.8 -31.1 -20.3 -24.1 -8.7 -21.6 -12.9 -6.2 -4.7 321 327 331 332 333 334 78.99 75.29 38.10 1.02 2.23 2.49 5.91 4.89 6.89 1.2 1.3 1.2 -13.0 -3.6 -4.2 3.3 2.8 9.3 1.9 2.0 3.2 -7.5 -1.2 4.3 3.3 -1.0 11.0 -8.7 -8.7 -11.1 -20.7 -10.3 -26.8 -7.0 -10.6 -2.6 -18.1 -18.4 -26.2 -39.5 -22.0 -65.0 -15.5 -19.0 -26.4 -22.0 -21.7 -31.6 -35.7 -37.8 -62.8 -33.4 -34.4 -18.6 -9.0 -8.2 -16.0 -10.3 -10.4 -21.8 -26.1 -32.6 -3.0 -1.7 -1.5 -2.3 -2.8 -3.5 -5.9 -4.5 -5.6 -.2 -.5 -.4 -.7 -1.1 .9 -.4 -2.0 -2.3 .9 -.9 -.9 -2.1 -.5 -.9 -1.7 -2.0 -3.2 -1.2 -.3 -.4 -.8 1.1 -.1 2.9 -.3 -2.2 -.1 1.4 1.4 3.2 .7 3.7 10.3 -.2 .6 2.0 .6 .6 .5 -.8 -1.9 .9 .2 .8 -.8 -12.2 -12.0 -17.7 -23.6 -18.1 -37.3 -20.8 -24.4 -12.2 335 3361–3 2.00 4.51 -.4 -6.2 3.3 -1.9 -2.9 -23.3 -11.8 -37.4 -22.3 -69.5 -17.8 -13.8 -3.2 1.7 -.7 -1.2 -1.1 -7.7 -1.3 -3.6 -.1 20.1 .6 5.5 -14.4 -20.2 3364–9 337 339 3.54 1.33 3.27 5.6 -1.7 3.5 11.1 -2.6 2.9 -12.7 -17.8 -2.3 -18.0 -29.3 -7.7 29.3 -23.6 -10.8 -12.7 -24.1 -1.2 -.8 -1.9 -.7 -1.4 -3.6 1.3 -1.3 -.5 -.5 -.5 -1.6 -.3 1.7 1.1 .9 -.2 -2.0 .9 -6.3 -21.2 -4.7 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 37.20 11.46 .89 .57 2.62 1.80 4.72 12.06 3.08 1.4 .2 -11.4 -.4 .5 2.4 2.3 5.1 -3.0 .8 1.9 -7.3 -.8 -2.1 -1.5 .3 .7 4.5 -6.3 -1.6 -13.8 -8.2 -10.9 -9.6 .5 -9.8 -11.9 -9.9 -2.6 -26.5 -23.3 -28.6 -10.1 12.1 -15.0 -23.7 -11.1 -4.3 -29.9 -24.6 -21.5 -26.9 -7.6 -7.4 -27.4 -.4 -.1 -13.7 -16.6 -.3 -14.6 1.2 6.3 -15.0 -.7 .0 -3.2 .0 -4.8 -1.3 .2 -.3 -2.9 .0 -.8 1.0 -2.1 -.9 -1.9 .2 1.3 -.7 .1 1.2 -1.9 .1 3.4 -.6 -1.9 -.5 -.8 .0 -1.2 -.1 -5.4 2.0 .8 1.3 .6 .0 -.2 -.6 -1.9 2.9 -.1 -.9 -1.0 .2 1.2 .7 1.6 .4 .8 -.2 -.2 -.5 .7 .1 -6.2 -1.3 -21.1 -17.3 -12.7 -14.7 -3.1 -5.6 -16.2 1133,5111 3.70 -1.2 -1.8 -8.8 -12.0 -27.6 -24.3 -5.4 -2.6 -.9 1.2 -.1 .9 -15.6 21 2211,2 2211 2212 10.60 10.41 8.65 1.76 8.7 -.6 -1.1 1.4 .3 3.1 3.5 1.6 .8 .3 -.8 5.9 3.5 12.6 9.6 27.7 -11.7 -4.1 -2.9 -10.2 -21.3 -11.2 -9.7 -18.7 -2.6 -.3 -.1 -1.5 -2.7 .3 .1 1.6 -1.1 -2.0 -1.4 -5.0 -.9 -.5 -1.3 4.3 .6 -1.6 -1.8 .0 .5 1.9 2.3 .1 -10.5 -.1 -.1 -.2 Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas Mayr 2008 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Apr.r Aug. ’08 to Aug. ’09 2007 M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Monthly rate 2009 Mar.r 2006 Total IP I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Annual rate 2008 2009 Q4 Q1r Q2r 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Under the industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of a NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are the relative weights for the rates of change for each series in the computation of the change in total industrial production in the following year. 7 Table 2 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Annual rate 2009 Q1r Q2r 2008 proportion 2006 2007 2008 2008 Q4 100.00 1.8 1.8 -6.7 -13.0 -19.0 23.88 6.10 3.04 .78 4.25 9.71 3.9 -.1 1.2 14.9 2.6 6.8 2.1 1.9 1.9 -.7 5.7 1.2 1.3 3.6 .5 6.9 -4.4 2.0 11.2 28.8 2.5 -6.7 7.5 7.6 76.12 1.2 1.7 -9.4 3341 3342 4.17 1.02 1.32 13.1 22.1 12.4 18.2 24.2 6.6 334412–9 1.84 9.8 71.95 Monthly rate 2009 Mar.r Apr. -10.5 -1.6 -6.5 -.8 -.8 -72.3 -9.9 -2.4 -14.2 -12.4 -8.7 -75.0 -11.0 -12.9 -20.2 -23.1 -6.9 -11.9 10.4 -38.1 -31.6 6.2 22.3 -15.0 .4 .7 4.51 1.92 2.30 -6.2 -7.6 -4.3 67.44 20.65 7.43 4.83 7.32 25.51 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable r r r r June -.6 -1.1 -.4 1.0 .8 -10.7 -1.2 -.9 -.2 -17.1 .2 -1.3 -.8 .4 .5 -10.0 -1.3 -1.2 -1.8 -2.7 -2.6 -5.6 -.3 -1.5 -.7 -.4 .1 -4.0 -1.9 -.3 -.7 -1.9 -.2 -.2 .4 -.7 1.1 .8 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.1 -4.9 -.4 -1.0 -51.1 -3.3 -5.2 -9.3 -1.7 -.5 -.9 -.3 1.4 .7 -12.9 -24.3 -26.5 -3.5 .7 -22.1 -4.1 .5 -2.0 -.9 1.9 -2.1 1.5 -2.2 -2.0 -2.5 .8 -1.9 2.9 2.5 -1.2 .7 -.5 -1.1 .0 -15.8 -23.8 1.8 -60.9 -38.1 22.2 3.3 4.6 -2.0 .3 6.1 -.6 -23.2 -9.5 -19.0 -23.1 -9.8 -1.9 -.7 -.8 -.3 1.4 .7 -12.7 -1.9 -1.9 .3 -23.3 -30.3 -14.8 -37.4 -49.6 -25.2 -69.5 -83.7 -53.7 -13.8 -8.3 -18.8 1.7 6.0 -.6 -1.2 -2.1 -.4 -7.7 -12.8 -5.8 -3.6 -5.3 -3.5 20.1 41.3 9.7 5.5 11.7 1.3 -20.2 -18.1 -21.0 .9 .8 6.2 -3.4 -.6 1.4 .9 -1.1 2.3 -1.0 .4 2.4 -8.5 -4.2 -8.8 -11.8 -9.8 -11.2 -17.6 -8.5 -16.3 -26.6 -17.4 -23.9 -19.1 -9.2 -5.9 -34.1 -24.8 -26.5 -9.6 -5.2 -21.7 -10.8 -11.1 -9.6 -2.0 -.6 -3.0 -2.3 -2.5 -3.0 -.6 -.9 -1.8 -.9 -.6 .0 -.4 -.1 -1.9 .1 -.5 -.5 -.2 -.1 -.9 -.1 .3 -.1 .5 -.2 .6 .7 .0 1.1 .5 1.0 .4 .0 .2 .3 -12.3 -5.2 -14.1 -18.7 -14.4 -16.2 95.83 74.82 34.07 1.2 .4 -.4 1.1 .9 1.4 -6.7 -8.9 -11.7 -11.7 -16.8 -24.5 -18.8 -21.9 -32.3 -10.9 -9.5 -17.9 -1.7 -1.8 -2.6 -.7 -.6 -1.1 -1.0 -.9 -2.1 -.4 -.3 -.9 .9 1.3 3.3 .8 .7 .6 -10.5 -12.0 -17.9 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 95.49 74.48 33.73 2.3 1.8 2.5 2.0 2.1 4.0 -5.9 -7.8 -9.3 -11.7 -16.9 -24.6 -16.0 -18.3 -25.0 -10.4 -8.8 -16.2 -1.7 -1.8 -2.7 -.6 -.4 -.7 -.8 -.6 -1.5 -.2 -.1 -.5 .3 .6 1.5 .6 .4 -.1 -10.4 -11.8 -17.4 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 91.32 70.31 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 -5.8 -7.8 -10.3 -15.4 -15.6 -18.0 -10.8 -9.3 -1.8 -1.9 -.7 -.6 -.8 -.5 -.3 -.2 .2 .5 .6 .4 -10.1 -11.5 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 11.43 17.56 1.7 1.3 4.0 3.2 -11.1 -12.5 -30.2 -25.3 -38.2 -24.5 -16.4 -4.9 -3.0 -2.5 -.4 .5 -2.1 -.4 -1.0 .1 3.3 1.2 -.1 .6 -21.3 -15.0 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Aug. Aug. ’08 to Aug. ’09 May Total industry July p r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 3 M OTOR V EHICLE A SSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2008 average 2008 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 Q2 2009 Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 8.67 3.78 4.90 4.67 .22 8.60 4.13 4.47 4.27 .21 7.27 3.34 3.93 3.73 .20 4.57 1.66 2.91 2.76 .15 4.46 1.85 2.62 2.51 .11 5.06 1.97 3.09 2.95 .14 4.99 1.90 3.08 2.98 .10 4.29 1.83 2.45 2.36 .10 4.11 1.80 2.31 2.18 .13 5.86 2.27 3.60 3.47 .12 6.57 2.58 3.99 3.84 .15 Memo Autos and light trucks 8.45 8.39 7.07 4.42 4.35 4.91 4.89 4.19 3.97 5.74 6.42 Item NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 8 Table 4 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY 2002 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2008 proportion 2008 Dec. 2009 Jan. Feb. Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 100.00 102.4 100.1 99.3 97.7 97.2 96.1 95.8 96.7 97.4 57.05 29.54 6.32 2.88 .34 .99 2.11 23.22 17.12 9.39 .42 5.09 1.70 6.10 103.5 100.6 82.6 74.5 174.1 72.3 90.4 106.0 102.9 105.7 62.0 107.8 90.0 114.9 101.0 98.6 74.6 58.7 176.3 72.2 89.4 105.9 102.8 105.6 60.2 108.5 88.2 114.8 100.0 98.7 76.1 64.2 174.3 70.9 86.6 105.5 103.4 106.6 58.8 109.0 88.9 111.2 98.8 98.3 76.1 66.2 170.1 69.4 84.5 105.0 103.2 106.6 58.8 109.9 84.5 110.2 98.0 97.7 75.9 65.8 165.9 70.3 84.6 104.3 102.1 105.6 58.9 108.6 82.5 110.5 96.9 96.7 73.8 62.9 160.4 69.3 83.4 103.7 102.2 106.9 58.1 107.0 81.5 107.5 96.6 96.4 72.9 61.6 158.0 67.1 83.9 103.5 102.1 105.8 55.0 108.8 82.8 107.1 97.4 97.1 78.6 72.2 156.7 68.0 85.1 102.7 101.7 105.2 57.0 108.1 82.7 105.0 98.2 98.4 80.2 76.4 154.6 67.5 84.3 103.9 102.9 107.0 58.2 108.8 82.9 105.9 9.48 1.53 2.92 5.03 1.66 120.8 113.4 157.1 105.0 119.9 115.7 96.9 155.6 102.3 120.5 113.6 98.4 151.8 99.6 118.4 110.6 96.6 150.9 95.6 119.2 108.7 93.0 151.2 93.4 119.0 106.4 90.1 149.9 91.0 119.8 105.9 89.5 149.8 90.4 120.0 107.0 93.4 151.0 90.6 122.3 107.6 95.6 149.8 91.4 122.3 4.87 10.65 89.1 100.1 85.8 98.9 84.6 97.3 82.7 95.6 82.0 95.5 82.0 94.4 82.0 94.6 82.5 94.6 82.5 95.1 42.95 28.99 16.83 2.69 5.93 8.21 12.16 .50 2.32 5.87 13.96 101.0 98.0 104.0 68.5 152.5 90.8 88.9 61.6 83.2 91.5 104.2 99.0 95.4 98.9 57.4 149.1 87.7 89.2 62.3 81.4 93.5 103.6 98.5 95.3 97.0 57.6 146.1 85.5 91.2 58.9 83.2 97.1 102.2 96.5 92.7 93.8 55.8 142.9 81.9 89.5 57.4 79.1 95.5 101.3 96.2 92.9 92.8 55.7 142.1 80.6 90.9 58.9 78.3 99.6 100.1 95.2 91.9 90.4 52.6 138.1 79.4 91.6 58.1 80.5 99.6 99.0 94.7 91.6 89.5 49.8 137.1 79.4 92.0 58.5 81.8 100.4 98.1 95.9 93.4 92.6 56.1 140.0 81.1 92.2 56.6 81.8 101.2 97.9 96.4 93.7 92.6 56.0 139.5 81.2 92.9 57.0 82.0 102.4 99.0 321 327 331 332 333 334 78.99 75.29 38.10 1.02 2.23 2.49 5.91 4.89 6.89 100.6 101.6 105.3 69.7 91.5 71.9 102.4 99.7 176.2 97.8 98.8 99.9 67.7 86.4 67.3 98.2 96.2 174.9 97.7 98.7 98.7 68.1 84.9 64.5 95.6 94.0 171.6 96.1 97.3 96.4 66.2 81.9 60.7 91.3 88.7 171.4 95.6 96.9 95.7 65.5 82.6 60.5 89.4 86.7 172.8 94.7 96.0 93.7 65.2 81.9 59.5 87.6 83.9 170.7 94.4 95.6 93.0 65.9 81.8 61.2 87.3 82.1 170.5 95.7 97.0 96.0 66.3 84.9 67.5 87.1 82.6 173.9 96.3 97.6 96.4 65.8 83.2 68.1 87.3 83.3 172.6 335 3361–3 2.00 4.51 99.1 69.2 98.2 51.2 95.8 55.8 92.7 56.7 92.1 56.1 91.0 51.8 89.8 49.9 89.7 59.9 90.2 63.2 3364–9 337 339 3.54 1.33 3.27 123.2 79.9 114.5 119.3 79.1 114.6 117.8 76.5 112.4 116.8 75.1 111.6 115.2 72.4 113.0 113.7 72.0 112.4 113.2 70.9 112.1 115.1 71.7 113.1 114.9 70.2 114.1 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 37.20 11.46 .89 .57 2.62 1.80 4.72 12.06 3.08 97.0 106.0 63.6 70.3 81.3 87.4 108.4 98.7 89.4 96.7 106.1 63.9 68.1 80.1 85.3 105.7 99.8 88.2 97.7 107.3 61.7 66.8 82.9 82.7 108.7 101.6 86.0 96.9 107.3 59.7 66.8 78.9 81.6 108.8 101.3 83.4 96.9 106.4 60.3 65.4 78.2 80.1 109.0 102.6 82.9 97.0 107.7 59.2 65.5 80.9 79.6 106.9 102.1 82.2 97.0 106.5 59.1 61.9 82.5 80.2 108.3 102.6 82.2 96.9 105.8 58.0 63.8 82.4 79.5 107.2 102.8 83.2 97.6 107.5 58.2 64.3 82.3 79.4 106.7 103.6 83.3 1133,5111 3.70 84.6 81.4 80.4 76.1 74.1 73.4 74.3 74.3 75.0 21 2211,2 2211 2212 10.60 10.41 8.65 1.76 103.4 111.3 112.7 104.5 102.8 111.5 112.3 107.4 101.3 106.4 108.5 96.4 98.7 106.1 108.5 95.0 96.1 106.4 108.5 96.5 95.0 104.3 107.0 91.6 94.1 103.8 105.5 95.6 94.7 102.2 103.6 95.6 95.2 104.1 105.9 95.7 Item Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Refer to notes on table 1. 9 Table 5 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : S PECIAL AGGREGATES 2002 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2008 proportion 2008 Dec. 2009 Jan. Feb. Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 100.00 102.4 100.1 99.3 97.7 97.2 96.1 95.8 96.7 97.4 23.88 6.10 3.04 .78 4.25 9.71 109.2 114.9 115.6 172.7 103.8 104.0 108.7 114.8 117.1 154.4 103.7 103.2 106.1 111.2 114.1 130.7 101.0 102.4 104.8 110.2 113.8 108.3 101.1 101.0 104.0 110.5 114.4 97.5 99.8 99.8 102.1 107.5 111.4 92.1 99.5 98.3 101.4 107.1 111.5 88.4 97.6 98.1 100.7 105.0 111.2 88.3 98.0 97.4 101.8 105.9 112.8 89.3 99.3 98.5 76.12 99.6 96.8 96.6 94.9 94.4 93.6 93.4 94.7 95.3 3341 3342 4.17 1.02 1.32 204.9 185.5 172.5 204.2 181.7 175.2 199.5 177.2 169.1 200.4 173.7 167.6 204.2 170.1 170.1 199.7 166.7 165.9 201.3 163.6 170.6 206.2 161.7 171.9 205.2 159.8 171.8 334412–9 1.84 220.5 218.0 215.8 222.9 233.1 228.4 229.0 242.9 241.4 71.95 94.5 91.8 91.7 90.0 89.4 88.7 88.4 89.6 90.2 4.51 1.92 2.30 69.2 61.7 76.8 51.2 35.8 65.2 55.8 44.7 66.5 56.7 47.4 66.1 56.1 46.4 65.9 51.8 40.5 62.0 49.9 38.3 59.9 59.9 54.1 65.7 63.2 60.5 66.5 67.44 20.65 7.43 4.83 7.32 25.51 96.7 99.3 113.3 88.6 90.8 92.6 95.2 99.1 109.8 85.3 88.7 91.1 94.7 99.3 107.6 84.0 87.7 90.9 92.8 98.7 104.4 82.1 85.5 88.2 92.2 97.8 102.4 81.4 85.0 88.1 91.8 97.7 100.5 81.5 84.6 87.7 91.6 97.6 99.7 81.5 84.8 87.6 92.1 97.4 100.2 82.0 84.8 88.5 92.6 98.3 100.6 82.0 84.9 88.8 95.83 74.82 34.07 98.4 95.6 95.4 96.1 92.9 89.9 95.4 92.9 89.0 93.8 91.2 86.6 93.2 90.7 85.7 92.2 89.9 83.9 91.8 89.6 83.2 92.7 90.7 85.9 93.4 91.4 86.4 95.49 74.48 33.73 104.4 103.2 112.3 103.2 101.6 109.3 102.1 101.1 107.0 100.3 99.3 104.1 99.7 98.8 103.3 98.9 98.2 101.8 98.7 98.1 101.3 99.0 98.6 102.9 99.5 99.0 102.8 91.32 70.31 100.2 97.8 98.9 96.2 97.9 95.9 96.1 94.0 95.5 93.5 94.7 93.0 94.5 92.8 94.7 93.2 95.3 93.6 11.43 17.56 106.0 92.1 100.5 91.1 99.7 91.4 96.7 89.1 96.3 89.6 94.3 89.3 93.3 89.3 96.4 90.4 96.2 90.9 Item Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 6 D IFFUSION I NDEXES OF I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Percent Item One month earlier 2007 2008 2009 Three months earlier 2007 2008 2009 Six months earlier 2007 2008 2009 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 44.9 43.9 33.0 57.7 42.0 41.5 54.5 46.2 33.0 59.9 42.3 44.2 45.8 50.3 39.7 58.3 50.6 39.4 51.9 46.2 59.3 45.5 41.3 58.3 29.5 45.5 39.7 58.0 28.8 53.8 20.2 50.0 49.4 16.3 55.6 40.7 20.2 52.1 37.5 30.4 63.1 40.1 38.5 58.7 44.2 35.1 56.7 41.0 38.1 54.8 43.6 43.6 52.9 38.1 54.5 26.6 44.6 30.1 56.1 23.1 51.9 22.4 43.3 46.5 16.0 46.9 47.4 16.0 49.5 47.1 21.8 56.3 44.9 17.9 58.2 39.1 20.2 53.1 34.6 30.8 59.9 36.9 38.6 54.5 38.5 53.8 25.0 47.1 25.3 52.2 25.6 56.4 16.7 NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 10 Table 7 C APACITY U TILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 2008 proportion 19722008 ave. 199495 high 200102 low 2008 Q4 2009 Q1r Q2r 2009 Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 100.00 80.9 84.9 73.5 74.2 70.4 68.6 69.5 69.2 68.5 68.3 69.0 69.6 31–33 79.68 76.08 79.6 79.4 84.5 84.6 71.4 70.9 70.9 70.9 66.7 66.7 65.3 65.5 66.0 66.1 65.7 65.9 65.2 65.3 65.1 65.2 66.1 66.2 66.6 66.7 321 327 331 332 333 334 39.36 1.27 2.42 2.69 5.61 4.80 7.11 77.8 79.2 77.7 80.5 77.5 78.6 78.3 83.7 87.5 82.5 94.7 85.5 87.9 84.4 67.8 70.4 70.4 68.0 69.4 62.8 58.8 67.1 54.8 63.0 61.4 74.1 70.3 69.4 61.0 49.4 56.1 48.0 67.1 63.3 65.1 58.5 48.5 54.8 45.2 62.6 57.6 63.8 59.9 48.7 54.5 45.4 64.6 60.5 64.4 59.4 48.3 55.0 45.2 63.4 59.2 64.6 58.2 48.3 54.6 44.5 62.2 57.4 63.5 57.8 48.9 54.7 45.8 62.1 56.2 63.1 59.7 49.5 56.8 50.6 62.2 56.6 64.0 60.1 49.2 55.8 51.1 62.4 57.2 63.2 335 3361–3 1.83 5.52 83.2 76.7 93.1 88.7 72.1 69.2 78.4 53.6 73.6 40.0 70.1 38.9 71.4 41.7 70.9 41.4 70.2 38.4 69.3 37.1 69.3 44.8 69.8 47.4 3364–9 337 339 3.32 1.39 3.40 73.2 78.4 76.5 68.6 83.1 81.3 64.4 68.3 71.0 72.0 65.1 69.4 76.7 61.6 67.2 74.1 58.3 66.9 75.9 60.4 66.4 74.8 58.5 67.2 73.9 58.5 66.8 73.5 57.8 66.7 74.8 58.7 67.2 74.7 57.8 67.9 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 36.72 10.86 .96 .56 2.41 1.79 5.00 12.17 2.97 81.5 81.5 81.6 79.5 87.6 83.4 86.1 78.2 83.6 85.7 85.0 91.7 88.1 92.7 87.0 91.1 81.1 92.2 75.0 75.6 68.7 63.6 78.8 72.7 86.0 69.5 74.6 74.8 77.1 64.7 72.2 74.4 72.7 85.7 70.0 72.7 72.8 76.2 60.1 67.9 70.3 68.2 83.9 68.8 67.3 73.1 76.3 59.0 65.6 70.5 66.7 84.2 70.1 65.1 72.8 76.5 58.5 67.7 68.9 67.3 84.8 69.1 65.6 72.9 75.9 59.4 66.5 68.4 66.4 84.9 70.2 65.3 73.1 76.9 58.6 66.8 70.9 66.4 83.3 69.9 64.9 73.2 76.0 58.9 63.5 72.4 67.3 84.5 70.4 65.1 73.2 75.6 58.1 65.6 72.5 67.1 83.6 70.6 66.1 73.9 76.9 58.7 66.4 72.4 67.4 83.3 71.3 66.3 1133,5111 3.61 84.2 83.0 79.8 72.5 66.9 62.6 64.2 62.6 62.1 62.9 63.0 63.6 21 2211,2 11.14 9.17 87.6 86.8 89.1 93.3 84.9 84.2 89.6 83.6 86.8 82.4 81.9 79.6 84.9 80.8 82.7 80.9 81.8 79.2 81.1 78.7 81.7 77.3 82.2 78.7 3341 3342 4.24 .98 1.33 78.2 78.1 76.2 86.5 87.3 82.9 56.5 66.8 41.6 69.8 74.1 74.3 64.1 68.9 72.0 63.0 64.1 69.9 63.5 67.3 70.3 64.2 65.6 70.9 62.4 64.1 68.7 62.4 62.5 70.2 63.4 61.4 70.4 62.6 60.3 70.0 334412–9 1.92 80.6 91.7 58.0 64.5 56.4 57.9 57.0 59.2 57.5 57.1 60.0 59.0 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 95.76 75.44 81.0 79.7 84.9 84.4 74.7 72.7 74.4 71.0 70.7 66.8 68.9 65.5 69.8 66.1 69.4 65.8 68.7 65.3 68.5 65.2 69.2 66.2 69.9 66.8 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 15.83 46.62 37.55 86.6 82.0 77.7 89.9 87.9 80.3 81.7 74.3 70.0 83.8 73.4 71.0 80.9 68.4 68.4 79.5 66.2 67.1 79.5 67.1 68.2 79.4 66.9 67.6 79.5 65.9 67.0 79.5 65.8 66.7 80.0 66.3 67.7 80.7 66.7 68.5 Item Total industry 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. 11 Table 8 I NDUSTRIAL C APACITY Percent change Average annual rate 19721980198979 88 94 Item Total industry Fourth quarter to fourth quarter 19952009 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 Q4 Annual rate 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Monthly rate 2009 Aug. 3.1 1.9 2.3 2.7 1.5 2.0 1.1 -.9 .4 -.2 -.8 -1.3 -.1 Manufacturing 3.3 2.2 2.5 3.1 1.4 2.2 1.3 -1.2 .4 -.4 -1.1 -1.5 -.1 Mining Utilities .7 4.2 .0 2.2 -.8 1.8 -.3 2.2 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 2.3 -.7 1.8 1.0 1.9 .3 1.8 -.5 1.7 -1.3 1.8 -.1 .2 19.8 17.3 15.6 22.3 5.7 22.9 6.3 8.4 3.6 5.8 8.4 9.8 .8 2.6 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 -1.6 .2 -.7 -1.6 -2.1 -.2 1.7 3.0 3.9 .3 1.4 3.3 -.4 2.5 2.7 .0 3.2 3.0 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.4 2.0 2.4 1.2 .8 2.2 -1.2 -1.0 -.6 .7 .0 1.2 -.2 -.5 .2 -1.1 -.9 -.5 -1.8 -1.2 -1.0 -.2 -.1 -.1 1 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing1 ex. selected high-technology industries S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 9 G ROSS VALUE OF F INAL P RODUCTS AND N ONINDUSTRIAL S UPPLIES Billions of 2000 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 2000 2008 2008 Q4 2009 Q1r Q2r 2009 Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 2,815.3 2,946.7 2,851.1 2,717.3 2,648.6 2,695.0 2,676.1 2,638.5 2,631.2 2,661.0 2,689.2 2,106.9 1,475.5 472.7 278.7 194.0 1,002.9 2,238.6 1,559.7 445.6 258.1 187.5 1,097.3 2,178.9 1,532.3 403.0 228.7 174.1 1,102.2 2,085.3 1,472.6 341.3 178.0 162.9 1,092.5 2,030.2 1,450.9 337.1 179.6 157.2 1,075.9 2,073.2 1,473.8 348.0 188.8 159.0 1,088.5 2,054.7 1,466.9 347.3 187.7 159.4 1,082.7 2,022.4 1,446.6 334.9 177.8 156.8 1,073.7 2,013.6 1,439.1 329.1 173.4 155.4 1,071.4 2,042.6 1,460.2 365.2 208.0 157.2 1,061.5 2,069.7 1,481.6 377.5 221.8 155.9 1,071.4 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 631.4 615.0 560.4 54.5 689.7 671.4 599.1 72.5 651.6 632.5 559.2 72.2 616.1 605.9 532.0 71.9 578.1 573.8 498.2 72.1 600.0 593.6 519.2 71.9 586.9 582.0 507.2 71.8 574.2 569.8 494.0 72.1 573.2 569.5 493.5 72.3 581.0 577.1 499.6 73.6 586.3 582.3 504.7 73.8 Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 708.4 211.8 496.5 135.7 709.6 202.9 507.3 156.7 675.0 188.6 487.4 155.1 635.5 169.4 467.7 154.7 621.5 165.1 458.0 151.3 625.9 166.0 461.6 153.4 624.9 164.8 461.9 154.2 619.3 165.2 455.5 149.7 620.3 165.3 456.5 150.0 622.0 166.8 456.5 150.1 623.8 166.7 458.5 151.7 Item Final products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable r Revised. p Preliminary. Table 10 G ROSS -VALUE -W EIGHTED I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S TAGE - OF -P ROCESS G ROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Finished Semifinished Primary Crude 2008 gross value1 2006 2007 2008 2008 Q4 1926.7 1668.3 960.3 417.8 2.2 -1.5 -.3 7.8 1.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 -7.6 -7.7 -7.2 -7.9 -14.6 -17.2 -8.0 -13.0 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Billions of 2000 dollars. 12 Annual rate 2009 Q1r Q2r -20.3 -26.5 -16.1 -10.2 -9.8 -14.4 -7.9 4.1 Monthly rate 2009 Mar.r Apr. -.7 -2.2 -1.6 -1.6 -1.2 -.4 .1 1.0 r r r May June -1.1 -1.5 -2.0 .7 -.8 -1.1 1.2 .3 r July 2.5 1.0 .2 .3 Aug. p 1.7 .5 .1 .7 Aug. ’08 to Aug. ’09 -8.5 -14.7 -9.6 -7.4 Table 11 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)1 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 -.3 .0 .2 -.5 -.5 1.3 .4 -.4 .9 -.6 .1 .2 .3 .5 -.5 .6 .5 .0 -.1 .2 .7 -.1 -.7 .2 1.0 .5 .2 .0 .3 1.0 .6 .2 -.9 -.1 .0 .7 .5 .9 .2 .1 .3 -.3 -.3 .2 .9 1.5 .5 -.1 -.7 -.2 .5 .2 .3 -1.2 -.1 .5 .4 .6 -.7 -.4 5.5 3.6 1.6 3.1 -7.4 7.0 3.6 -1.7 2.8 2.6 7.3 2.1 -2.4 1.2 5.5 10.2 2.9 1.8 -6.1 .9 5.2 5.2 .9 1.0 -1.6 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.6 .5 .4 .3 -.7 .8 .3 .0 .0 1.7 .8 .0 1.1 .2 -.2 .7 .3 .5 .0 .8 .4 -.4 .6 .2 .6 .0 .2 .7 .3 .9 .8 .4 .2 -.4 -.1 -.5 .0 .5 1.4 .6 .2 .4 .2 .4 .6 .7 .7 .9 -.2 .0 .4 .4 .6 .3 .8 .0 .5 1.1 .4 .6 -.5 3.6 5.2 5.1 2.9 7.2 .9 7.5 1.2 8.1 2.9 2.1 5.1 3.9 5.4 4.0 6.0 8.1 3.4 5.6 2.8 3.3 5.3 4.8 4.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .1 .5 .5 .0 -.7 1.2 .0 .4 .4 -.6 .8 .1 .2 .4 -.3 .0 .4 .2 .6 -.3 .7 .7 .7 .2 -.7 .5 -.6 -.2 .1 -.6 .5 -.4 .6 -.2 -.4 1.4 2.1 .5 -.2 -.4 .9 -.3 -.3 .5 -.3 .7 .7 1.4 -.4 -.6 .9 -.1 .6 .0 -.5 .4 .3 .8 -.4 .0 7.9 4.4 4.4 4.8 -5.7 6.4 3.2 3.7 4.9 -5.3 9.6 2.9 4.1 -.3 -5.7 10.4 5.1 8.1 -1.2 -5.0 7.3 5.9 4.3 4.2 -3.4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .5 .7 .3 .4 .0 .0 .3 .5 .6 .0 .8 -.1 -.6 -.1 .2 .3 -.8 .5 .0 .4 .5 .0 .7 .3 -.1 .9 .1 -.9 .4 .4 -.3 .4 .7 -.1 .2 .1 -.1 .2 .2 .2 .1 .6 .0 -1.7 -.3 -.3 .1 .9 1.1 -.1 .4 .9 .2 1.1 -.2 -.5 -.1 .7 .6 .8 2.5 2.9 2.8 5.7 3.6 5.9 -3.0 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.6 1.9 -.7 2.0 -.4 4.1 5.7 4.0 -.6 -.1 1.3 2.5 3.3 2.3 2007 2008 2009 -.5 -.1 -2.2 .8 -.3 -.8 -.2 -.4 -1.6 .4 -.6 -.6 .1 -.3 -1.1 .0 -.2 -.4 .3 -.1 1.0 .1 -1.1 .8 .4 -4.0 -.5 1.3 .6 -1.3 .3 -2.3 1.8 .2 -19.0 2.4 -4.6 -10.5 2.1 -9.0 .8 -13.0 1.5 -2.2 IP (2002=100) 2007 2008 2009 109.9 112.3 100.1 110.8 112.0 99.3 110.6 111.6 97.7 111.1 111.0 97.2 111.1 110.7 96.1 111.2 110.4 95.8 111.5 110.4 96.7 111.6 109.2 97.4 112.0 104.8 111.4 106.2 112.1 104.8 112.4 102.4 110.5 112.0 99.1 111.1 110.7 96.4 111.7 108.1 112.0 104.4 111.3 108.8 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2007 2008 2009 136.9 139.6 140.7 137.1 139.8 140.7 137.3 139.9 140.6 137.6 140.1 140.5 137.8 140.2 140.4 138.0 140.4 140.2 138.3 140.5 140.1 138.5 140.6 139.9 138.7 140.7 139.0 140.7 139.2 140.7 139.4 140.7 137.1 139.8 140.7 137.8 140.2 140.4 138.5 140.6 139.2 140.7 138.1 140.3 Utilization (percent) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 79.0 83.4 85.1 82.5 79.9 79.9 83.6 84.6 83.1 79.2 79.9 83.8 84.7 83.3 78.7 80.2 84.2 84.6 83.0 78.8 80.6 84.1 83.8 83.0 79.5 80.8 84.2 83.7 83.1 80.1 81.2 84.3 82.8 82.8 80.0 81.6 84.7 83.3 82.9 80.0 81.7 84.3 83.0 82.9 80.6 82.8 84.7 82.7 82.2 80.4 83.1 84.8 82.8 81.0 80.2 83.4 85.0 83.1 80.3 79.8 79.6 83.6 84.8 83.0 79.3 80.5 84.2 84.0 83.1 79.5 81.5 84.4 83.0 82.9 80.2 83.1 84.8 82.9 81.2 80.1 81.2 84.3 83.7 82.5 79.8 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 79.1 81.2 82.5 84.9 82.6 79.6 81.4 82.3 84.6 83.6 80.1 81.3 83.0 84.4 83.1 80.5 81.4 83.2 84.1 83.4 80.6 81.0 83.4 84.0 83.5 80.5 81.1 83.7 83.9 83.9 81.0 81.3 83.6 83.3 83.4 80.4 81.2 83.7 84.2 83.5 80.5 81.4 83.6 84.2 83.6 80.9 81.9 84.1 83.7 83.2 81.1 82.1 84.3 83.6 83.5 80.9 82.3 84.9 83.6 83.7 79.6 81.3 82.6 84.6 83.1 80.6 81.2 83.4 84.0 83.6 80.6 81.3 83.6 83.9 83.5 81.0 82.1 84.4 83.6 83.5 80.4 81.5 83.5 84.0 83.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 83.3 84.6 82.1 82.3 79.3 83.9 84.1 82.1 82.4 78.6 84.2 83.6 81.9 82.4 78.1 83.8 83.5 81.7 82.6 77.7 83.9 83.6 82.0 82.5 76.9 83.8 82.6 81.5 82.3 76.2 83.8 81.8 81.8 81.8 75.7 84.4 83.1 81.9 81.4 75.2 84.7 82.4 81.3 81.5 74.7 84.7 82.6 82.1 80.9 74.1 85.0 82.1 82.2 80.7 73.6 84.7 82.0 82.6 80.1 73.5 83.8 84.1 82.0 82.4 78.7 83.8 83.2 81.8 82.5 76.9 84.3 82.4 81.6 81.6 75.2 84.8 82.2 82.3 80.6 73.7 84.2 83.0 81.9 81.7 76.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 73.7 75.5 77.0 79.7 80.9 73.6 75.8 77.4 80.2 80.8 74.1 75.7 76.9 80.1 80.8 74.2 75.1 77.3 80.0 81.0 74.5 75.2 77.9 80.2 80.8 75.2 75.3 77.2 80.4 81.1 74.9 75.6 77.7 80.3 81.1 75.0 75.6 77.9 80.4 81.2 75.0 76.0 77.9 78.9 80.8 74.9 76.1 78.7 79.7 80.6 75.2 76.8 78.8 80.5 80.3 74.9 76.7 79.4 80.9 80.9 73.8 75.6 77.1 80.0 80.8 74.7 75.2 77.5 80.2 81.0 75.0 75.7 77.9 79.9 81.1 75.0 76.5 79.0 80.4 80.6 74.6 75.8 77.9 80.1 80.9 2007 2008 2009 80.3 80.5 71.1 80.8 80.2 70.6 80.6 79.8 69.5 80.7 79.2 69.2 80.7 78.9 68.5 80.6 78.7 68.3 80.7 78.6 69.0 80.6 77.6 69.6 80.7 74.5 80.2 75.4 80.5 74.4 80.6 72.7 80.6 80.1 70.4 80.6 78.9 68.6 80.7 76.9 80.4 74.2 80.6 77.6 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 13 Table 12 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 -.3 -.2 .8 -.1 -.8 1.4 .2 -.9 1.4 -.6 .1 .3 -.1 .5 -.7 .5 .9 .1 -.3 .3 .7 -.1 -.9 .1 .7 .4 .1 .2 .2 1.1 .7 .1 -1.1 -.2 .2 .5 .1 .9 .2 .2 .6 .3 -.2 .0 1.1 1.6 .5 -.2 -.8 -.2 .6 .3 .2 -1.1 -.3 .6 .4 .1 -.8 -.1 6.1 2.6 1.8 4.6 -8.8 6.7 4.5 -3.1 2.7 2.1 7.1 1.4 -2.9 .6 7.1 11.7 4.5 .6 -6.7 1.6 5.7 5.4 .8 .8 -2.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.6 1.1 .2 .3 -.8 .9 .1 .1 -.1 1.7 1.0 -.2 1.3 .2 -.2 .5 .6 .8 -.1 1.0 .6 -.1 .7 .0 .7 .3 -.1 .3 .4 1.1 .8 .3 .4 -.6 .3 -.4 -.1 .7 1.2 .6 .1 .6 .3 .9 .7 .6 .8 1.0 -.1 -.1 .4 .4 .8 .1 .8 -.2 .5 1.1 .4 .9 .6 4.5 5.0 5.4 2.1 8.2 1.4 9.5 .6 9.1 4.0 1.3 5.9 3.2 7.8 2.8 6.8 9.8 4.2 5.8 3.6 3.5 5.9 5.2 4.8 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .1 .8 .4 .1 -.6 1.4 .0 .7 .3 -.6 1.2 -.1 -.1 .7 -.3 -.2 .6 .3 .6 -.2 .9 .6 .9 -.1 -.8 .7 -.7 -.4 .2 -.7 .4 -.5 .5 .0 -.3 1.7 2.5 .8 -.5 -.7 .9 -.3 -.3 .5 -.3 .6 .9 1.6 -.4 -.7 1.1 .2 .7 -.3 -.2 .5 .5 .7 -.7 .2 9.4 6.0 5.0 5.3 -6.6 7.6 2.7 4.2 4.7 -5.5 10.8 3.0 3.8 -.5 -6.3 11.1 7.3 9.8 -2.8 -4.8 8.5 6.7 5.0 4.5 -4.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .4 .6 .1 .7 .7 .0 .1 .7 .8 -.3 .7 .3 -.3 -.4 -.1 .0 -1.0 .5 .1 .5 .7 .1 .7 .5 -.3 1.1 .5 -.8 .2 .3 -.4 .1 .8 .0 .1 .3 -.2 .6 .3 .3 .1 .8 -.2 -1.0 -.2 -.5 .1 1.0 1.6 -.5 .4 1.1 .0 .9 -.2 -.5 -.2 .7 .1 1.2 3.0 2.4 2.5 6.2 3.3 5.2 -2.0 2.9 1.9 1.0 2.9 2.3 3.6 .5 1.4 -.9 4.6 5.2 6.6 -.9 -.1 1.3 3.0 4.0 2.5 2007 2008 2009 -.6 -.3 -2.8 .3 -.5 -.1 .4 -.1 -1.7 .3 -.9 -.5 .0 -.2 -.9 .3 -.4 -.3 .6 -.3 1.4 -.4 -.9 .6 .4 -3.7 -.4 .3 .4 -2.2 .3 -2.9 1.7 -1.2 -22.0 3.2 -5.4 -9.0 2.4 -9.3 .1 -18.1 1.4 -3.2 IP (2002=100) 2007 2008 2009 111.4 113.4 97.8 111.7 112.8 97.7 112.2 112.7 96.1 112.5 111.7 95.6 112.5 111.5 94.7 112.9 111.0 94.4 113.5 110.8 95.7 113.0 109.7 96.3 113.4 105.7 112.9 106.0 113.3 103.6 113.7 100.6 111.7 113.0 97.2 112.6 111.4 94.9 113.3 108.7 113.3 103.4 112.7 109.1 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2007 2008 2009 141.3 144.5 145.7 141.5 144.7 145.7 141.8 144.9 145.6 142.0 145.1 145.4 142.3 145.3 145.3 142.6 145.5 145.1 142.9 145.6 144.9 143.2 145.7 144.7 143.4 145.8 143.7 145.8 144.0 145.8 144.2 145.8 141.5 144.7 145.7 142.3 145.3 145.3 143.1 145.7 144.0 145.8 142.7 145.4 Utilization (percent) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 79.0 83.0 85.4 81.6 78.5 79.9 83.1 84.5 82.6 77.9 79.8 83.3 84.3 82.8 77.2 80.0 84.0 84.2 82.4 77.4 80.4 83.8 83.3 82.3 77.8 80.5 83.9 83.3 82.3 78.5 80.8 84.0 82.2 82.0 78.6 81.1 84.0 82.7 82.0 78.7 81.4 84.2 82.3 81.8 79.4 82.5 84.6 82.0 81.0 79.2 82.9 84.7 82.0 80.0 78.9 83.3 84.9 81.9 79.2 78.7 79.6 83.2 84.7 82.3 77.9 80.3 83.9 83.6 82.3 77.9 81.1 84.0 82.4 81.9 78.9 82.9 84.7 82.0 80.1 78.9 81.0 84.0 83.2 81.7 78.4 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 78.0 80.4 81.2 84.4 81.4 78.6 80.3 81.1 84.0 82.3 79.2 80.1 82.0 83.9 81.7 79.4 80.4 82.4 83.5 82.1 79.7 80.2 82.7 83.2 82.2 79.8 80.0 82.7 83.2 82.6 80.2 80.1 82.7 82.4 82.4 79.7 79.9 83.0 83.0 82.5 79.6 80.3 83.0 83.4 82.6 79.9 80.8 83.5 82.9 82.1 80.0 81.0 83.8 82.5 82.3 79.7 81.2 84.5 82.5 82.5 78.6 80.2 81.4 84.1 81.8 79.6 80.2 82.6 83.3 82.3 79.8 80.1 82.9 82.9 82.5 79.8 81.0 83.9 82.6 82.3 79.5 80.4 82.7 83.2 82.2 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 82.1 83.8 80.9 81.0 76.9 82.8 83.2 81.1 80.9 76.2 83.3 82.5 80.6 81.1 75.7 82.6 82.4 80.5 81.3 75.3 82.9 82.3 80.9 80.8 74.5 82.9 81.2 80.3 80.7 73.8 82.7 80.3 80.3 80.3 73.4 83.5 81.8 80.5 79.6 72.7 83.7 81.0 79.9 79.6 72.3 83.6 81.3 80.8 79.0 71.7 83.9 81.0 81.0 78.5 71.4 83.7 81.0 81.3 77.7 71.5 82.8 83.2 80.9 81.0 76.3 82.8 82.0 80.6 80.9 74.5 83.3 81.0 80.3 79.9 72.8 83.7 81.1 81.0 78.4 71.5 83.2 81.8 80.7 80.1 73.8 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 71.7 73.3 74.8 78.1 79.8 71.7 73.5 75.4 78.7 79.5 72.1 73.7 75.2 78.3 79.3 72.1 73.0 75.6 78.3 79.6 72.5 73.1 76.1 78.5 79.3 73.3 73.5 75.5 78.6 79.5 73.0 73.6 76.2 78.4 79.5 73.2 73.4 76.6 78.6 79.6 73.3 74.0 76.5 77.7 79.4 72.9 74.1 77.2 78.8 78.9 73.2 74.9 77.2 79.4 78.7 72.9 74.8 77.6 79.4 79.5 71.8 73.5 75.1 78.3 79.6 72.6 73.2 75.7 78.5 79.5 73.1 73.7 76.4 78.2 79.5 73.0 74.6 77.3 79.2 79.0 72.7 73.7 76.2 78.6 79.4 2007 2008 2009 78.8 78.5 67.1 78.9 78.0 67.1 79.1 77.8 66.0 79.2 77.0 65.7 79.1 76.7 65.2 79.1 76.3 65.1 79.4 76.1 66.1 78.9 75.3 66.6 79.1 72.5 78.6 72.7 78.7 71.1 78.8 69.0 79.0 78.1 66.7 79.1 76.7 65.3 79.1 74.6 78.7 70.9 79.0 75.1 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 14 Table 13 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, High-Technology Industries1 AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Excluding Selected Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual -.5 .0 .3 -.7 -.4 1.2 .4 -.4 .9 -.7 .2 .2 .3 .5 -.6 .5 .5 -.1 -.2 .2 .6 -.1 -.7 .1 1.0 .4 .2 .0 .2 1.0 .5 .1 -1.1 -.2 .0 .6 .5 .9 .2 .0 .2 -.4 -.3 .2 .9 1.4 .5 -.2 -.8 -.2 .5 .2 .2 -1.3 -.2 .4 .4 .6 -.7 -.5 4.5 3.1 1.9 2.3 -8.0 6.2 2.8 -1.8 2.3 2.2 6.0 1.5 -3.3 .9 5.4 9.1 2.6 1.0 -6.7 .5 4.3 4.4 .6 .3 -2.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.8 .5 .4 .2 -1.0 .7 .3 .0 -.2 1.4 .8 -.1 .9 -.1 -.3 .6 .3 .3 -.3 .7 .3 -.5 .4 .0 .5 -.1 .2 .6 .1 .7 .8 .4 .0 -.5 -.4 -.6 -.1 .3 1.1 .4 .1 .3 .0 .1 .4 .6 .7 .6 -.5 -.3 .3 .3 .4 .1 .8 .0 .5 .9 .2 .5 -2.0 3.2 4.4 3.0 -.4 6.1 .2 5.4 -1.4 6.2 1.8 1.5 3.2 1.4 2.2 2.9 5.1 5.6 .4 3.2 1.9 2.5 4.0 2.4 1.7 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 -.1 .2 .2 -.4 -.7 .9 -.1 .1 .1 -.5 .5 -.1 -.1 .1 -.3 -.4 .2 -.1 .4 -.1 .3 .6 .6 -.1 -.7 .2 -.9 -.5 .0 -.5 .2 -.8 .3 -.5 -.3 1.1 2.0 .4 -.4 -.3 .7 -.6 -.5 .4 -.4 .6 .5 1.2 -.5 -.6 .7 -.3 .3 -.2 -.4 .1 .0 .5 -.6 -.1 5.1 1.9 .8 .4 -6.3 2.2 1.0 .3 1.7 -4.4 6.0 -.3 1.2 -2.7 -4.6 7.9 2.0 5.8 -2.7 -4.9 4.2 3.1 1.2 1.1 -4.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .7 .7 .2 .4 .0 -.1 .1 .5 .6 -.1 .8 -.3 -.6 -.2 .2 .2 -1.0 .5 -.1 .3 .5 -.1 .8 .2 -.2 .8 .0 -.9 .3 .3 -.4 .2 .7 -.2 .2 .0 -.1 .2 .0 .1 .1 .6 -.1 -2.0 -.4 -.3 -.1 .9 1.1 -.1 .4 .8 .3 1.1 -.2 -.6 -.1 .7 .6 .9 2.8 1.5 2.0 5.0 3.1 5.4 -4.5 1.9 .9 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 -2.1 1.2 -1.0 3.2 5.4 2.8 -.9 -.1 .2 1.8 2.6 1.5 2007 2008 2009 -.5 -.1 -2.3 .8 -.4 -.7 -.3 -.5 -1.7 .3 -.7 -.7 .0 -.3 -1.0 -.1 -.2 -.4 .2 .0 .9 .0 -1.1 .8 .3 -4.1 -.7 1.5 .5 -1.1 .3 -2.2 1.7 -.6 -18.8 1.8 -5.3 -10.9 1.0 -9.0 -.1 -11.7 .9 -2.8 IP (2002=100) 2007 2008 2009 106.3 107.7 96.1 107.2 107.3 95.4 106.9 106.8 93.8 107.2 106.1 93.2 107.3 105.8 92.2 107.2 105.6 91.8 107.4 105.6 92.7 107.4 104.4 93.4 107.7 100.2 107.0 101.7 107.5 100.6 107.8 98.4 106.8 107.3 95.1 107.2 105.8 92.4 107.5 103.4 107.5 100.2 107.2 104.2 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2007 2008 2009 132.4 133.8 134.7 132.5 133.9 134.6 132.6 134.0 134.5 132.7 134.2 134.3 132.8 134.3 134.2 132.9 134.4 134.0 133.0 134.5 133.8 133.1 134.6 133.6 133.2 134.7 133.4 134.7 133.5 134.7 133.6 134.7 132.5 133.9 134.6 132.8 134.3 134.2 133.1 134.6 133.5 134.7 133.0 134.4 Utilization (percent) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 79.2 83.6 85.4 82.7 80.1 80.1 84.0 85.0 83.3 79.4 80.1 84.1 85.2 83.6 78.9 80.4 84.5 85.0 83.3 78.9 80.8 84.3 84.2 83.3 79.6 81.1 84.5 84.1 83.4 80.3 81.4 84.5 83.1 83.1 80.2 81.8 84.9 83.7 83.2 80.1 81.9 84.5 83.3 83.2 80.8 83.0 84.9 83.0 82.5 80.5 83.4 85.0 83.0 81.3 80.3 83.7 85.3 83.4 80.6 79.8 79.8 83.9 85.2 83.2 79.5 80.8 84.4 84.4 83.3 79.6 81.7 84.7 83.3 83.2 80.4 83.4 85.1 83.1 81.4 80.2 81.4 84.5 84.0 82.8 79.9 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 79.0 81.4 82.6 84.9 82.4 79.6 81.6 82.5 84.6 83.4 80.1 81.4 83.1 84.4 83.0 80.5 81.6 83.2 84.0 83.4 80.6 81.1 83.4 83.9 83.7 80.5 81.2 83.8 83.8 84.1 81.0 81.4 83.7 83.2 83.6 80.5 81.3 83.8 84.0 83.7 80.5 81.5 83.7 84.0 83.8 80.9 82.0 84.1 83.5 83.4 81.1 82.1 84.3 83.4 83.9 81.1 82.4 84.9 83.4 84.1 79.6 81.5 82.8 84.6 82.9 80.5 81.3 83.5 83.9 83.7 80.7 81.4 83.7 83.8 83.7 81.0 82.2 84.4 83.4 83.8 80.4 81.6 83.6 83.9 83.5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 83.8 84.7 82.2 81.8 79.0 84.3 84.3 82.1 81.7 78.5 84.5 84.0 81.8 81.7 78.1 83.9 83.8 81.5 81.9 77.9 83.9 84.1 81.8 81.7 77.3 83.8 83.0 81.3 81.6 76.8 83.7 82.1 81.3 81.1 76.5 84.3 83.5 81.5 80.7 76.2 84.6 82.7 81.0 80.9 75.8 84.8 82.9 81.9 80.4 75.3 85.0 82.4 81.9 80.2 74.9 84.8 82.2 82.3 79.6 74.7 84.2 84.3 82.0 81.7 78.5 83.9 83.7 81.5 81.8 77.4 84.2 82.8 81.3 80.9 76.2 84.9 82.5 82.0 80.1 75.0 84.3 83.3 81.7 81.1 76.7 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 75.2 76.8 77.6 80.2 81.0 75.1 77.0 77.9 80.7 80.8 75.6 76.9 77.4 80.6 80.9 75.8 76.2 77.9 80.5 81.0 76.1 76.2 78.5 80.7 80.8 76.7 76.2 77.7 80.9 81.0 76.4 76.5 78.3 80.7 81.0 76.4 76.4 78.4 80.7 81.0 76.5 76.9 78.4 79.1 80.6 76.3 76.9 79.1 79.9 80.4 76.7 77.5 79.4 80.7 80.2 76.2 77.4 79.9 81.1 80.8 75.3 76.9 77.6 80.5 80.9 76.2 76.2 78.0 80.7 80.9 76.5 76.6 78.4 80.2 80.9 76.4 77.3 79.5 80.5 80.5 76.1 76.7 78.4 80.5 80.8 2007 2008 2009 80.3 80.5 71.4 80.9 80.2 70.9 80.6 79.7 69.8 80.8 79.1 69.4 80.8 78.8 68.7 80.7 78.6 68.5 80.7 78.5 69.2 80.7 77.6 69.9 80.8 74.4 80.2 75.5 80.6 74.6 80.7 73.0 80.6 80.1 70.7 80.7 78.8 68.9 80.7 76.8 80.5 74.4 80.6 77.5 IP (percent change)2 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 15 Table 14 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual -.4 -.2 .8 -.2 -.8 1.4 .2 -1.0 1.4 -.7 .1 .2 .0 .4 -.8 .4 .8 .0 -.3 .4 .6 -.2 -.9 .1 .6 .2 .1 .2 .2 1.1 .6 .0 -1.3 -.2 .3 .4 .1 .9 .2 .1 .5 .3 -.3 -.1 1.1 1.5 .5 -.3 -.9 -.2 .6 .3 .1 -1.2 -.3 .5 .4 .0 -.8 -.3 4.9 2.0 2.2 3.7 -9.6 5.7 3.6 -3.4 2.0 1.5 5.5 .6 -4.0 .1 7.1 10.5 4.2 -.5 -7.5 1.2 4.6 4.4 .4 .0 -2.6 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.9 1.1 .1 .2 -1.2 .9 .0 .1 -.3 1.4 .9 -.3 1.2 -.1 -.5 .4 .5 .5 -.4 1.0 .5 -.2 .5 -.2 .5 .1 -.2 .2 .2 .8 .8 .3 .3 -.8 .0 -.5 -.2 .5 .9 .3 -.1 .5 .1 .6 .5 .4 .8 .7 -.4 -.4 .3 .3 .5 -.1 .7 -.2 .5 .9 .1 .7 -1.2 4.1 4.0 3.0 -1.9 6.9 .5 7.1 -2.5 7.0 2.6 .5 3.7 .3 4.2 1.4 5.7 6.9 .8 3.0 2.6 2.5 4.4 2.5 1.5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 -.2 .6 .0 -.4 -.6 1.1 -.2 .4 -.1 -.5 .9 -.3 -.4 .3 -.3 -.7 .3 .0 .4 -.1 .5 .5 .8 -.5 -.7 .4 -1.1 -.7 .1 -.5 .0 -.9 .0 -.3 -.1 1.4 2.4 .7 -.8 -.7 .6 -.7 -.5 .4 -.3 .5 .7 1.5 -.5 -.7 .9 -.1 .4 -.6 -.2 .2 .2 .4 -.9 .1 6.2 3.1 .8 .1 -7.4 2.7 .1 .2 .9 -4.5 6.5 -.6 .4 -3.4 -5.0 8.3 3.8 7.2 -4.7 -4.8 4.9 3.5 1.4 .8 -4.9 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .6 .6 -.1 .6 .7 -.1 -.1 .7 .7 -.4 .8 .1 -.3 -.5 -.2 -.1 -1.1 .5 .0 .5 .6 .0 .8 .4 -.4 1.0 .4 -.9 .1 .2 -.5 -.1 .9 -.2 .0 .2 -.3 .6 .1 .2 .1 .8 -.3 -1.3 -.3 -.5 -.1 1.0 1.5 -.5 .3 1.0 .0 .8 -.2 -.7 -.3 .6 .0 1.2 3.5 .7 1.5 5.5 2.6 4.6 -3.8 3.1 .9 .0 1.9 .8 3.3 -1.2 .3 -1.7 3.6 4.9 5.1 -1.2 .0 .0 2.2 3.2 1.5 2007 2008 2009 -.7 -.3 -2.9 .3 -.7 .0 .4 -.2 -1.8 .2 -1.0 -.6 .0 -.2 -.9 .2 -.4 -.3 .4 -.2 1.3 -.5 -.9 .7 .3 -3.8 -.6 .6 .3 -2.0 .2 -2.9 1.5 -2.3 -21.9 2.4 -6.4 -9.5 1.0 -9.3 -1.2 -16.8 .7 -4.0 IP (2002=100) 2007 2008 2009 106.9 107.7 92.9 107.1 107.0 92.9 107.5 106.7 91.2 107.8 105.6 90.7 107.7 105.4 89.9 107.9 105.0 89.6 108.4 104.8 90.7 107.8 103.8 91.4 108.1 99.9 107.5 100.5 107.8 98.5 108.0 95.6 107.2 107.1 92.3 107.8 105.4 90.0 108.1 102.8 107.7 98.2 107.7 103.4 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2007 2008 2009 135.8 137.3 138.2 135.9 137.5 138.1 136.0 137.6 137.9 136.1 137.8 137.8 136.2 137.9 137.5 136.3 138.1 137.3 136.4 138.2 137.1 136.5 138.3 136.8 136.7 138.3 136.8 138.4 137.0 138.3 137.1 138.3 135.9 137.5 138.1 136.2 137.9 137.5 136.5 138.3 137.0 138.3 136.4 138.0 Utilization (percent) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 79.2 83.4 85.9 81.8 78.7 80.2 83.5 84.9 82.9 78.0 80.1 83.7 84.8 83.0 77.3 80.3 84.3 84.7 82.6 77.4 80.7 84.2 83.8 82.6 77.8 80.8 84.2 83.7 82.6 78.6 81.1 84.2 82.5 82.3 78.7 81.3 84.2 83.1 82.3 78.7 81.7 84.4 82.7 82.2 79.5 82.8 84.8 82.3 81.3 79.3 83.2 85.0 82.3 80.2 78.9 83.6 85.2 82.1 79.4 78.6 79.8 83.5 85.2 82.6 78.0 80.6 84.2 84.1 82.6 78.0 81.4 84.3 82.8 82.2 79.0 83.2 85.0 82.2 80.3 78.9 81.3 84.3 83.6 81.9 78.5 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 77.8 80.5 81.3 84.4 81.0 78.4 80.5 81.2 84.0 81.9 79.1 80.2 82.1 83.8 81.4 79.3 80.5 82.4 83.3 82.0 79.6 80.3 82.7 83.0 82.2 79.7 80.0 82.7 83.0 82.7 80.2 80.2 82.8 82.2 82.5 79.7 80.0 83.1 82.7 82.6 79.5 80.3 83.0 83.1 82.7 79.8 80.8 83.5 82.5 82.2 80.0 81.0 83.8 82.3 82.6 79.7 81.3 84.4 82.2 82.9 78.5 80.4 81.5 84.1 81.4 79.5 80.3 82.6 83.1 82.3 79.8 80.2 83.0 82.6 82.6 79.8 81.0 83.9 82.3 82.6 79.4 80.5 82.7 83.0 82.2 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 82.5 83.8 80.9 80.3 76.3 83.1 83.3 81.0 80.0 75.8 83.6 82.7 80.4 80.2 75.5 82.7 82.7 80.2 80.3 75.4 82.8 82.8 80.6 79.8 74.8 82.8 81.5 79.8 79.7 74.3 82.5 80.5 79.7 79.3 74.2 83.3 82.1 80.0 78.6 73.6 83.5 81.3 79.4 78.8 73.4 83.5 81.5 80.4 78.3 72.8 83.9 81.2 80.6 77.7 72.7 83.7 81.1 80.7 76.9 72.8 83.1 83.3 80.8 80.2 75.9 82.7 82.3 80.2 79.9 74.8 83.1 81.3 79.7 78.9 73.7 83.7 81.3 80.6 77.6 72.7 83.1 82.1 80.3 79.1 74.3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 73.2 74.8 75.3 78.6 79.9 73.1 74.8 75.9 79.2 79.5 73.7 74.9 75.7 78.7 79.3 73.7 74.1 76.1 78.7 79.6 74.1 74.1 76.7 79.0 79.2 74.9 74.5 76.0 79.1 79.3 74.5 74.5 76.7 78.9 79.2 74.7 74.3 77.1 78.9 79.3 74.8 74.9 76.9 77.9 79.0 74.5 74.8 77.7 79.0 78.6 74.8 75.6 77.7 79.5 78.4 74.3 75.4 78.2 79.4 79.3 73.3 74.8 75.6 78.8 79.6 74.2 74.2 76.3 78.9 79.4 74.7 74.5 76.9 78.5 79.2 74.5 75.3 77.8 79.3 78.8 74.2 74.7 76.7 78.9 79.2 2007 2008 2009 78.7 78.4 67.2 78.8 77.8 67.2 79.1 77.5 66.1 79.2 76.6 65.8 79.1 76.4 65.3 79.2 76.1 65.2 79.4 75.8 66.2 78.9 75.1 66.8 79.1 72.2 78.5 72.6 78.7 71.2 78.8 69.1 78.9 77.9 66.8 79.2 76.4 65.5 79.2 74.4 78.7 71.0 79.0 74.9 IP (percent change)3 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 16 E XPLANATORY N OTE output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is A shown below. An output index for month m is denoted by Im for aggregate A and Im for each of its components. The monthly price measure in the formula (pm ) is interpolated from an annual series of value added divided by the average annual IP index. The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. In addition, the website includes files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that are published in a monthly supplement to the G.17, and historical data. Instructions on searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. A Im A Im−1 s P P I p I p P m m−1 × P m m = Im−1 pm−1 Im−1 pm The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 8 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 8/10 percentage point (0.08 x 10% = 0.8%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/IPWeightsSa.txt). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2002. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) definition of manufacturing plus those industries— newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing plus logging—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 312 individual series based on the 2002 NAICS codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.htm). Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent five months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 72 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to 86 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 95 percent in the third month, 98 percent in the fourth month, 99 percent in the fifth month, and 99 percent in the sixth month. Data availability by data type in late 2008 is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2008) Month of estimate Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production and unit values or sales) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable direct measures of product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Physical product 30 44 54 56 57 57 Production-worker hours 42 42 42 42 42 42 IP data received 72 86 95 98 99 99 IP data estimated 28 14 5 2 1 1 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first row of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (30 percent out of a total of 57 percent). Of the 30 percent, about two-thirds (19 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the fourth estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the third estimate of the last month of a quarter, the fourth estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fifth estimate of the first month of a quarter. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through February 2009; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least September 2008. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or business cycles when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see the Federal Reserve Bulletins of February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added 17 Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.26 percent during the 1987–2008 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–2008 period. In most cases (about 85 percent), the direction of the change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the Census Bureau’s annual Survey of Plant Capacity (the predecessor to the QSPC) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the QSPC. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. C APACITY U TILIZATION Perspective. Over the 1972–2007 period, the average total industry utilization rate is 81.0 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate has been 79.7 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 87 detailed industries (69 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) definition of manufacturing plus those industries— newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing plus logging—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-technology industries and manufacturing excluding high-technology industries. References. The release for the annual revision that was published on March 27, 2009 is available on the Board’s website (www.federal reserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). A more detailed version is provided in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 95 (August 2009), pp. A125–A145. The annual revision published in March 2008 is described in an article published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 94 (August 2008), pp. A41–A60. A summary of the annual revision that incorporated back to 1972 production and capacity indexes reclassified according to the North American Industry Classification System is available in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 89 (April 2003), pp. 151–176. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/CapitalStockDocLatest.pdf. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 25 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity (QSPC); these industries account for a bit less than 70 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 5 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/CapNotes.htm). Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005, March 2006, May 2007, August 2008). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2009: January 16, February 18, March 16, April 15, May 15, June 16, July 15, August 14, September 16, October 16, November 17, and December 15. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating the annual capacity aggregate with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. 2010: January 15, February 17, March 15, April 15, May 14, June 16, July 15, August 17, September 15, October 18, November 16, and December 15. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A 18
