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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EDT) September 14, 2007 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in August after an increase of 0.5 percent in July. At 114.4 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production in August was 1.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Manufacturing output fell 0.3 percent in August after five consecutive months of increases, mining output dropped 0.6 percent, but unusually hot weather contributed to an increase of 5.3 percent in the output of utilities. (over) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY Seasonally adjusted 2002=100 Percent change Industrial production 2007 Mayr 2007 Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p Juner Julyr Aug.p Total index Previous estimates 113.0 112.8 113.6 113.5 114.2 113.9 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 114.0 108.8 131.1 110.8 109.1 112.7 114.8 109.4 132.1 111.3 110.3 113.2 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 114.9 114.8 99.9 108.0 114.4 -.1 -.2 .6 .6 .5 .3 .2 1.7 115.5 109.9 133.7 111.1 110.3 114.0 115.5 110.0 133.4 112.0 110.3 114.3 -.2 -.4 .2 -.1 .7 .0 .7 .6 .8 .5 1.1 .5 .6 .4 1.2 -.2 .0 .7 .0 .1 -.2 .7 .0 .2 2.3 2.1 3.7 .5 -.9 1.5 115.7 115.5 100.3 107.4 116.6 116.2 101.1 105.7 116.3 .1 -.1 -.3 -1.5 .7 .6 .4 -.6 .7 .6 .8 -1.7 -.3 1.7 -.6 5.3 .5 2.3 Average 1972–2006 1994-95 high Percent of capacity 2001-02 2006 2007 low Aug. Mayr Total industry Previous estimates 81.0 85.1 73.6 82.4 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 79.8 84.6 71.6 81.1 87.4 86.7 88.9 93.7 84.8 83.8 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.5 82.2 77.8 89.5 88.2 80.5 82.0 74.6 70.0 Capacity utilization 100.4 111.3 Aug. ’06 to Aug. ’07 Capacity growth Aug. ’06 to Aug. ’07 Juner Julyr Aug.p 81.5 81.4 81.8 81.8 82.2 81.9 82.2 2.0 80.5 80.4 90.1 85.0 81.0 80.7 90.8 83.6 80.7 2.2 90.2 87.5 80.1 80.0 89.7 85.6 90.2 87.9 .6 1.8 89.2 84.4 78.0 89.2 82.1 78.4 89.3 82.4 78.8 89.9 82.5 79.2 89.6 83.1 78.8 .4 2.5 1.9 r Revised. p Preliminary. Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS. 1 Capacity utilization for total industry was unchanged, at 82.2 percent, a rate 0.2 percentage point below its level in August 2006 but 1.2 percentage points above its 1972–2006 average. Market Groups The production of consumer goods edged up 0.1 percent in August. The production of durable consumer goods decreased 1.0 percent; the drop was due mainly to a reduction of 2.1 percent in the output of automotive products. Elsewhere, the output of home electronics declined 0.2 percent; the output of appliances, furniture, and carpeting fell 0.6 percent; but the index for miscellaneous durable goods rose 0.2 percent. The production of nondurable non-energy consumer goods fell 0.3 percent; decreases in the production of foods and tobacco, of clothing, and of paper products more than offset an increase in the production of consumer chemical products. Boosted by residential sales of electricity, the index for consumer energy goods rose 3.5 percent. The index for business equipment fell 0.2 percent in August. The output of transit equipment declined 0.2 percent, as a reduction in motor vehicle assemblies more than offset an increase in the production of civilian aircraft. The index for industrial and other equipment decreased 0.6 percent; although farm machinery increased for the second month in a row, other machinery categories registered declines. The production of defense and space equipment fell 0.6 percent. The index for construction supplies stayed flat in August. The index for business supplies rose 1.0 percent as a result of an increase in the commercial sales of electricity; the output of non-energy business supplies was unchanged. The production of materials rose 0.2 percent in August. Within non-energy materials, the index for durable materials fell 0.2 percent, and the index for nondurable materials fell 0.1 percent. The decrease in durable materials reflected reduced output of motor vehicle parts as well as decreases in a variety of equipment parts. Among nondurable materials, declines in the output of textiles and of chemicals more than offset an increase in the production of paper. The output of energy materials climbed 1.5 percent. Industry Groups Manufacturing output fell 0.3 percent in August, as production of both durable and nondurable goods decreased. The factory operating rate for manufacturing declined 0.3 percentage point in August, to 80.7 percent, a rate about 1 percentage point above its 1972–2006 average. The production of durable goods fell 0.3 percent. Decreases were recorded in wood products; machinery; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; motor vehicles and parts; furniture and related products; and miscellaneous manufacturing, whereas increases were registered in nonmetallic mineral products; primary metals; fabricated metal products; computer and electronic products; and aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment. The production of nondurable goods moved down 0.2 percent. Declines in the indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products; for textile and product mills; for apparel and leather; for petroleum and coal products; and for plastics and rubber products more than offset gains in paper, printing and support, and chemical products. The output of the non-NAICS manufacturing industries (logging and publishing) fell 0.3 percent. The output of utilities jumped 5.3 percent in August. Electric utility output increased 6.3 percent, whereas the output of natural gas utilities was unchanged. The operating rate at utilities rose to 87.9 percent, a rate 1.2 percentage points above its 1972–2006 average. The output of mines fell 0.6 percent, and the capacity utilization rate for mining fell 0.6 percentage point, to 90.2 percent, a rate 2.8 percentage points above its long-run average. 2 In August, capacity utilization for industries in the crude stage moved down 0.3 percentage point, to 89.6 percent. For industries in the primary and semifinished stages, capacity utilization advanced 0.6 percentage point, to 83.1 percent; for industries in the finished stage, capacity utilization fell 0.4 percentage point, to 78.8 percent. Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change Motor Vehicle Assemblies Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Industrial Capacity Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups Historical Statistics: Total Industry Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Further detail is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue an annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization around the end of March 2008. The revised IP indexes will incorporate data from the 2006 Annual Surveys of Manufactures and from selected editions of the 2006 Current Industrial Reports, all from the U.S. Census Bureau. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2006 will also be incorporated. The updating will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry as well as changes in the estimation methods for some series. Any changes to methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present. After the release of the revision, subsequent monthly releases will include new or revised indexes for a six-month reporting window: one month of new data and revisions for the previous five months. Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data from the Census Bureau’s 2006 Survey of Plant Capacity, which covers manufacturing, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy, and other organizations. Once the revision is published, it will be available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data will also be available through the website of the Department of Commerce. Further information on these revisions can be obtained from the Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone number 202-452-3197). 3 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization 160 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Total Manufacturing 135 160 135 110 Capacity 110 85 85 Production Detail: 2003 to present 118 60 60 114 110 Production 106 102 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 98 2005 Percent of capacity 100 95 35 100 95 Utilization 85 85 75 75 65 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 65 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). See note on cover page. 4 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization Consumer goods Ratio scale, 2002=100 Equipment Ratio scale, 2002=100 115 115 140 140 110 110 130 130 105 105 100 Nondurable 120 100 95 90 Durable 95 110 110 90 100 100 85 85 80 80 90 75 80 120 120 120 115 115 75 1998 2000 2002 Nonindustrial supplies 110 2004 2006 Ratio scale, 2002=100 105 105 100 100 95 95 1998 2000 2002 2004 85 Other business 1998 2000 2002 Capacity utilization 2004 2006 85 Primary and 115 Non-energy 110 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 Energy 85 85 90 80 80 85 75 1998 2000 2002 Capacity utilization 90 90 85 85 semifinished 2004 2006 75 Percent of capacity 90 85 Finished processing processing 80 80 120 115 Percent of capacity 90 2006 Ratio scale, 2002=100 90 90 90 Defense and Space Industrial materials 110 Construction 120 Business 75 80 80 80 75 75 75 70 70 Excluding utilities 70 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 5 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 70 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 125 115 125 115 Excluding high-technology industries 95 95 75 75 Total IP 55 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 55 1990 1995 Industrial production 2000 2005 35 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1970 1975 Industrial production 1980 1985 Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 400 300 200 150 200 150 Communications eq. 95 50 50 -10 2000 2005 100 95 Excluding high-technology industries 85 85 75 75 65 65 Semiconductors 10 1998 2000 2002 -15 Percent of capacity 100 100 Computers 1995 Capacity utilization 400 300 100 1990 -5 High-technology industries 2004 2006 2008 10 55 1990 1995 2000 2005 55 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 6 Table 1 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Annual rate 2007 Q4 Q1 4.0 -1.5 2.6 1.1 -2.5 -4.6 13.1 -4.7 -.6 2.2 2.7 2.2 .7 3.8 3.3 .7 3.9 2.6 -4.6 -10.1 -9.7 -5.1 5.6 5.0 3.0 1.3 -1.4 7.8 .6 10.9 11.2 20.5 13.7 6.7 3.8 9.7 16.9 10.1 6.9 2.3 1.6 2.9 8.0 3.4 42.57 30.80 19.15 3.30 6.64 9.21 11.64 .60 2.30 5.49 11.77 3.4 4.8 5.4 .2 9.4 4.5 3.8 -3.4 3.9 7.7 -.2 321 327 331 332 333 334 81.86 77.70 41.46 1.39 2.43 3.25 5.63 5.12 7.51 Item Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy 2006 proportion1 2004 2005 2006 2006 Q3 100.00 3.0 3.2 3.5 57.43 29.36 7.16 3.33 .36 1.23 2.24 22.19 16.90 9.18 .59 4.83 1.79 5.29 2.6 1.8 -.2 -3.2 14.2 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.3 -10.5 3.8 3.2 3.7 4.8 2.7 2.3 -1.8 16.8 3.1 6.4 2.9 3.4 4.8 -.3 .9 2.2 1.7 9.95 2.03 2.78 5.14 1.75 5.3 6.0 7.2 3.9 2.5 4.55 11.02 Monthly rate Aug. ’06 to Aug. ’07 Q2r 2007 Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 1.1 3.5 -.1 .6 .5 .2 1.7 -.3 -.1 -4.0 -3.4 8.1 -8.4 -4.4 1.2 4.4 7.0 -2.6 -1.4 9.8 -8.0 1.5 3.4 -.7 .4 40.8 -8.2 -4.0 4.7 2.1 4.3 1.3 -2.2 2.2 13.5 3.1 2.5 12.9 20.3 21.6 4.3 5.6 -.5 1.6 3.6 -1.5 -3.4 4.0 -7.5 -.2 -.4 -.3 -1.2 -.7 .8 .5 -.4 -.4 -.3 .3 -.9 -.5 -.3 .6 .6 1.8 3.0 .5 -.1 1.3 .2 .4 .9 -1.2 -.4 .8 -.8 .4 .4 .7 1.3 -.8 -.4 .5 .3 .3 -.2 .1 1.6 .3 .1 .2 .1 -1.0 -2.1 -.2 -.6 .2 .5 -.3 -.7 -1.8 .8 -.3 3.5 1.8 2.1 2.0 3.7 17.9 -5.0 .7 2.1 2.4 3.7 -2.6 -.2 4.9 1.3 10.4 10.1 8.0 11.9 5.6 5.0 11.2 7.7 1.2 -3.1 -1.3 -1.2 9.3 -6.9 -1.2 5.7 -1.7 10.8 6.0 -2.0 .2 -1.1 .8 .3 -.1 .8 2.0 .8 .3 1.7 1.2 .6 .5 1.9 .6 -.2 -.2 .3 -.6 -.6 3.7 3.1 9.1 1.0 -.2 -2.1 2.4 -.9 3.3 -8.9 -1.0 -2.8 .9 5.8 2.1 .7 -.4 1.1 .2 .0 -.2 .0 1.0 -.9 1.0 1.1 3.5 7.0 1.7 16.0 2.7 -2.1 .2 -.2 -6.5 -4.2 4.7 4.5 5.6 -3.2 19.4 -.7 2.6 -7.3 2.5 4.7 5.4 4.3 4.9 6.6 -8.3 27.9 -1.9 2.3 -4.2 3.8 4.7 2.5 -3.1 -4.0 -3.9 -9.8 10.3 -11.6 -4.2 -13.3 2.8 -10.2 -.7 .5 .3 -.1 -1.9 -1.9 1.9 1.0 -9.8 -3.9 7.5 1.0 4.2 5.6 7.4 7.6 5.2 9.1 2.6 -.7 -4.5 4.1 .6 .0 .1 .4 .5 .0 .6 -.3 .6 -.7 .1 -.2 .5 .5 .8 .7 1.6 .2 .1 -.7 -1.3 .2 .2 .7 1.0 1.4 .0 3.1 .8 .3 -3.3 1.0 .3 -.1 .2 -.2 -.2 -1.6 -.2 .3 -.1 -1.5 .5 -.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.5 -2.9 7.0 1.1 -.2 -11.3 -.9 -.1 1.7 3.4 3.5 3.7 1.8 3.8 7.4 1.6 5.0 10.2 4.4 4.6 7.9 10.5 5.8 -2.3 6.1 8.2 18.3 3.4 3.6 4.7 -14.5 -1.9 -3.5 3.8 5.3 18.3 4.4 4.8 5.5 -11.8 -5.2 -6.8 5.3 19.9 20.6 -1.7 -2.1 -1.5 -25.5 -9.3 -28.2 -1.4 -3.1 14.6 .8 1.0 -.4 -5.4 -5.3 10.1 -.2 -9.4 3.1 4.4 4.5 7.4 7.8 4.7 14.4 5.3 3.2 8.4 .1 .1 .1 2.2 .6 .7 -.3 .3 .1 .7 .7 1.1 1.2 1.4 -.7 1.3 .1 1.7 .7 .8 1.1 -.6 .9 2.0 .3 2.1 2.2 -.3 -.3 -.3 -.4 .5 .6 .4 -1.0 .2 1.7 1.7 2.5 -6.3 -.9 -.4 2.1 -1.7 10.4 I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous 335 3361–3 2.03 5.54 2.0 -1.6 3.8 .2 2.4 -3.8 1.9 -9.8 -3.3 -4.0 5.4 -7.5 6.9 13.4 -.6 -.5 .6 2.6 .9 .7 -.8 -2.6 1.7 -1.3 3364–9 337 339 3.76 1.57 3.22 2.0 3.5 2.2 15.0 1.7 8.7 14.7 -1.2 4.8 12.4 -3.2 5.8 9.0 -6.9 7.9 10.3 -8.6 1.6 3.7 .7 8.8 .0 .8 .5 1.7 1.0 .3 .6 .7 .1 .4 -.6 -.1 8.0 -3.8 4.5 Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 36.24 10.80 1.05 .64 2.61 2.05 3.83 11.81 3.46 3.2 1.2 -.7 -9.6 3.0 1.9 10.0 6.1 .8 .9 5.3 2.0 .4 -.1 1.9 -3.6 -2.5 3.0 2.3 2.6 -7.7 -.1 -.1 5.2 2.6 3.8 .2 4.1 1.1 -5.5 -1.4 2.1 -1.5 17.4 5.7 1.9 -2.9 7.4 -14.6 -3.9 -.4 8.4 -13.4 -7.5 -8.9 2.6 3.9 -8.4 .3 -6.0 3.1 8.8 1.3 6.7 1.4 4.5 2.7 -2.0 -1.5 -8.9 -7.1 1.7 8.6 .1 -.3 .5 .3 -.6 -1.6 2.5 .1 .5 .2 1.0 .2 -1.1 -.6 -.9 -.4 .0 .4 .4 -.3 -1.9 -.3 .7 -.2 .8 .9 1.1 -.2 -.6 -1.2 -1.8 .1 .9 -.9 .4 -.1 .7 4.0 -8.1 -3.6 -1.9 .1 -2.5 -.3 2.8 1133,5111 4.16 2.6 .6 .2 -3.9 7.5 -1.9 2.5 -.6 .6 .1 -.3 2.4 21 2211,2 2211 2212 8.58 9.55 8.04 1.51 -.8 1.6 2.2 -1.4 -5.5 2.1 3.4 -3.4 8.0 .3 .0 1.9 .6 4.6 1.7 19.9 3.0 -3.6 -2.9 -7.3 -4.8 8.7 7.9 13.3 -.1 -.8 -.5 -2.8 -.3 -1.5 -.3 -7.6 .4 -.6 -.5 -.7 .8 -1.7 -2.4 2.6 -.6 5.3 6.3 .0 .5 2.3 2.7 .2 Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Under the industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of a NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year. 7 Table 2 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Annual rate 2007 Q4 Q1 r Q2 2007 Mayr June 4.0 -1.5 1.1 3.5 -.1 .6 .5 .2 1.7 4.0 .7 2.3 14.7 2.2 6.8 5.8 10.9 8.7 11.8 6.7 .8 -2.8 -8.0 -2.5 .5 -8.9 3.4 4.8 13.5 4.0 8.6 5.3 -1.0 -1.4 -7.5 3.6 -6.3 6.2 -2.1 -.3 -.3 -.6 -1.3 -.5 .0 -.1 -.8 -.3 2.1 .0 .3 -.3 .1 -2.1 -.9 -.7 .3 2.3 3.5 4.4 -.5 2.8 .7 1.6 1.3 2.1 -.6 1.6 1.7 4.6 3.3 3.5 -1.1 .1 4.8 .0 .7 .7 -.3 1.7 10.4 6.6 6.2 28.1 30.4 12.9 24.6 12.1 14.8 27.3 2.3 6.6 24.7 24.4 9.6 9.2 32.8 27.7 16.5 39.4 8.3 .9 4.3 -.4 2.5 1.0 1.5 3.3 .3 .8 .8 .6 2.1 19.5 28.0 17.0 2.58 13.7 33.8 34.8 51.3 31.1 -6.9 9.4 -.3 3.9 6.3 .3 16.7 74.63 2.8 3.1 1.9 2.0 -2.7 -.5 4.1 -.1 .6 .5 -.3 .6 5.54 2.41 2.72 -1.6 -3.0 -1.1 .2 -2.5 1.3 -3.8 -6.0 -.2 -9.8 -16.9 -3.5 -4.0 -5.2 -3.4 -7.5 -10.6 -4.0 13.4 23.1 8.8 -.5 -1.5 .6 2.6 4.0 1.5 .7 2.6 -.1 -2.6 -3.7 -2.0 -1.3 .1 -1.3 69.09 20.91 7.81 4.52 7.93 26.14 3.2 2.4 4.4 1.5 2.1 4.4 3.4 3.6 8.9 8.0 3.1 .7 2.4 1.8 10.2 -2.2 1.0 2.3 3.1 2.7 13.0 -1.0 -.3 2.3 -2.6 2.0 4.0 -9.1 -1.8 -7.0 .1 1.0 -3.3 -3.0 .0 1.1 3.4 2.1 4.3 5.7 1.3 4.7 -.1 -.4 -.1 .7 -.3 .1 .4 .6 .5 1.1 .3 .2 .5 .3 1.3 .0 .1 .7 -.2 -.3 -.3 .0 .0 .0 .8 1.7 2.1 -1.0 .0 .2 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 95.16 77.02 36.79 2.5 3.0 2.8 1.9 2.9 5.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.9 3.0 2.5 -2.7 -3.3 -4.7 .6 .3 -1.6 2.9 3.7 6.2 -.2 .0 .0 .5 .6 .9 .4 .6 .8 .2 -.3 -.5 .8 .6 .4 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 94.46 76.32 36.09 3.3 3.9 4.8 3.4 4.7 9.3 3.9 3.9 6.0 4.9 5.5 7.9 -1.3 -1.5 -1.0 1.6 1.4 .8 3.0 3.8 6.5 -.1 .1 .2 .4 .6 .9 .5 .7 1.2 .4 -.1 .0 1.9 1.9 3.1 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 89.62 71.48 2.9 3.4 2.1 3.1 2.8 2.5 3.7 4.0 -2.7 -3.2 1.1 .9 2.3 3.0 -.1 .1 .3 .4 .4 .6 .4 -.2 .9 .8 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 12.85 17.95 5.2 4.4 8.3 -.1 9.0 1.3 11.9 .1 2.6 -8.6 -2.6 2.5 3.7 7.0 .0 .2 .8 .4 1.7 .5 -.5 .1 2.2 .9 Item 2006 proportion 2004 2005 2006 2006 Q3 100.00 3.0 3.2 3.5 20.53 5.29 2.74 .72 3.79 7.98 1.5 3.7 4.5 8.3 2.1 -1.3 -1.8 1.7 .5 11.8 -2.5 -4.9 79.47 3.3 3341 3342 4.84 1.20 1.06 334412–9 Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 3361–3 3361 3363 Monthly rate r r July Aug. p Aug. ’06 to Aug. ’07 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 3 M OTOR V EHICLE A SSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2006 average 2006 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 2007 May June July Aug. Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 11.26 4.37 6.89 6.43 .46 10.98 4.28 6.69 6.21 .49 10.96 4.38 6.57 6.13 .45 10.58 3.97 6.61 6.25 .36 11.07 3.89 7.18 6.91 .27 10.87 3.75 7.12 6.86 .26 11.30 4.07 7.24 6.96 .27 11.39 4.14 7.24 6.99 .26 10.94 3.94 7.00 6.76 .24 Memo Autos and light trucks 10.80 10.49 10.51 10.22 10.80 10.60 11.03 11.13 10.70 Item NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 8 Table 4 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY 2002 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2006 proportion 2006 Dec. 2007 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 100.00 112.2 111.7 112.5 112.4 113.1 113.0 113.6 114.2 114.4 57.43 29.36 7.16 3.33 .36 1.23 2.24 22.19 16.90 9.18 .59 4.83 1.79 5.29 112.6 107.8 106.2 100.6 180.7 102.2 108.4 108.2 109.8 111.8 78.9 112.9 103.3 103.7 111.9 107.4 103.1 95.2 184.6 100.5 107.4 108.7 109.7 112.1 80.4 111.8 103.3 106.1 113.1 109.4 104.6 98.7 196.0 99.5 106.3 110.9 109.5 111.9 79.6 110.9 104.7 115.8 112.8 108.6 105.2 99.7 191.1 99.8 107.1 109.6 109.9 112.7 78.7 110.5 105.5 108.9 113.4 109.2 107.1 102.3 200.8 100.4 107.6 109.8 110.3 113.1 79.4 110.9 105.6 108.7 113.1 108.8 106.7 101.1 199.4 101.3 108.1 109.4 109.8 112.8 79.7 109.9 105.1 108.3 113.9 109.4 108.7 104.1 200.3 101.1 109.6 109.5 110.3 113.8 78.8 109.4 105.9 107.4 114.3 109.9 109.4 105.5 198.7 100.7 110.1 109.9 110.7 113.6 78.8 111.2 106.2 107.5 114.5 110.0 108.3 103.3 198.2 100.2 110.3 110.5 110.4 112.7 77.4 112.1 105.9 111.3 9.95 2.03 2.78 5.14 1.75 132.1 146.8 144.0 120.7 112.5 128.8 144.2 144.4 115.6 113.9 129.2 144.1 146.2 115.4 113.0 130.6 144.3 147.5 117.3 109.8 130.9 143.7 148.6 117.5 111.1 131.1 142.1 149.8 117.8 111.0 132.1 145.0 151.0 118.1 112.9 133.7 145.9 151.7 120.3 113.5 133.4 145.6 152.1 119.7 112.9 4.55 11.02 109.7 110.3 108.4 110.6 106.8 111.5 107.9 111.2 108.3 111.9 109.1 111.5 110.3 111.7 110.3 111.5 110.3 112.6 42.57 30.80 19.15 3.30 6.64 9.21 11.64 .60 2.30 5.49 11.77 111.7 116.6 124.7 98.5 170.8 107.3 104.2 83.3 103.2 108.7 100.2 111.3 115.9 124.4 96.8 169.8 107.8 103.2 81.1 100.1 108.9 100.5 111.8 116.0 123.9 97.1 168.6 107.5 103.9 81.3 101.0 110.1 101.9 112.0 116.8 124.9 98.3 169.5 108.3 104.5 80.9 100.7 111.4 100.5 112.7 117.5 126.0 98.6 170.5 109.7 104.7 80.8 100.3 111.1 101.1 112.7 117.7 126.5 99.1 170.5 110.4 104.4 81.3 99.6 111.2 100.9 113.2 118.3 127.5 99.8 173.3 110.6 104.5 80.7 98.4 111.4 101.2 114.0 119.5 129.3 99.8 178.7 111.5 104.8 78.1 99.4 111.8 101.1 114.3 119.3 129.1 98.1 178.3 111.8 104.7 76.9 99.9 111.6 102.6 321 327 331 332 333 334 81.86 77.70 41.46 1.39 2.43 3.25 5.63 5.12 7.51 114.4 115.4 122.7 100.3 111.0 102.7 109.8 122.6 181.7 113.7 114.7 121.2 98.5 109.8 107.1 109.3 116.4 181.3 113.6 114.6 121.3 97.7 106.5 107.6 109.8 115.3 181.5 114.4 115.4 122.3 98.3 108.3 108.8 110.6 118.0 182.3 114.8 115.8 123.2 98.2 108.5 111.3 111.1 117.2 184.2 114.9 115.9 123.4 100.3 109.2 112.1 110.8 117.6 184.4 115.7 116.7 124.8 101.6 110.7 111.2 112.2 117.7 187.6 116.6 117.6 126.2 101.0 111.8 113.4 112.5 120.2 191.8 116.3 117.3 125.7 100.6 112.3 114.0 113.0 119.0 192.1 335 3361–3 2.03 5.54 107.1 102.4 106.5 96.4 107.4 98.7 107.9 99.4 109.3 100.8 108.7 100.3 109.3 102.9 110.3 103.6 109.4 100.9 3364–9 337 339 3.76 1.57 3.22 128.3 102.7 121.0 130.7 101.8 120.2 131.0 100.7 119.4 130.2 101.0 121.6 131.1 100.4 122.5 131.1 101.2 123.1 133.3 102.3 123.4 134.1 103.0 123.5 134.5 102.3 123.4 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 36.24 10.80 1.05 .64 2.61 2.05 3.83 11.81 3.46 107.4 112.2 88.6 79.7 99.5 106.3 108.9 110.5 105.6 107.5 112.3 87.4 81.1 96.4 105.6 113.0 109.9 106.3 107.2 112.2 87.3 80.3 97.5 106.0 110.0 110.1 105.5 107.8 113.0 86.5 79.5 97.2 105.6 111.7 110.4 107.1 107.7 113.7 87.3 80.0 97.3 104.7 107.9 110.5 108.0 107.8 113.3 87.8 80.3 96.7 103.1 110.6 110.6 108.5 108.0 114.4 87.9 79.4 96.1 102.1 110.1 110.7 109.0 108.4 114.1 86.3 79.1 96.8 101.9 111.0 111.7 110.2 108.2 113.3 85.3 77.7 96.9 102.8 110.0 112.1 110.2 1133,5111 4.16 98.7 98.4 98.6 99.1 99.5 99.0 99.6 99.7 99.3 21 2211,2 2211 2212 8.58 9.55 8.04 1.51 102.5 102.5 105.8 87.0 100.2 105.1 108.1 91.0 100.0 114.1 114.1 114.2 100.2 106.6 109.2 94.7 100.2 109.7 110.7 104.8 99.9 108.0 110.4 96.8 100.3 107.4 109.9 96.1 101.1 105.7 107.2 98.7 100.4 111.3 114.0 98.7 Item Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Refer to notes on table 1. 9 Table 5 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : S PECIAL AGGREGATES 2002 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2006 proportion 2006 Dec. 2007 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 100.00 112.2 111.7 112.5 112.4 113.1 113.0 113.6 114.2 114.4 20.53 5.29 2.74 .72 3.79 7.98 103.3 103.7 110.0 170.3 101.3 99.5 104.6 106.1 113.7 172.6 102.1 99.5 108.4 115.8 117.6 173.7 108.0 98.9 105.3 108.9 113.7 173.0 103.1 99.1 106.0 108.7 116.6 170.6 106.3 98.6 105.6 108.3 115.9 168.4 105.8 98.5 105.6 107.4 115.6 171.9 105.8 98.9 105.2 107.5 113.2 170.3 105.0 99.1 107.6 111.3 118.1 169.5 108.0 99.8 79.47 114.6 113.6 113.6 114.3 114.9 114.9 115.7 116.5 116.2 3341 3342 4.84 1.20 1.06 218.6 166.6 157.8 219.9 171.3 161.1 220.4 176.6 165.1 223.2 179.9 168.8 226.4 185.2 168.0 228.5 193.2 167.3 234.3 195.0 169.7 242.1 195.6 171.0 244.0 196.8 174.6 334412–9 2.58 281.0 278.0 272.2 273.7 277.8 277.0 287.7 305.8 306.8 74.63 109.4 108.2 108.3 108.9 109.4 109.3 109.9 110.5 110.2 5.54 2.41 2.72 102.4 102.2 100.4 96.4 92.4 97.7 98.7 97.5 98.1 99.4 97.6 99.1 100.8 100.6 99.5 100.3 99.1 100.1 102.9 103.1 101.6 103.6 105.8 101.5 100.9 101.8 99.5 69.09 20.91 7.81 4.52 7.93 26.14 110.0 109.4 125.6 109.2 106.1 107.6 109.3 109.1 122.2 107.9 105.4 107.3 109.1 108.8 122.0 106.2 105.4 107.5 109.7 109.1 123.5 107.3 106.2 108.2 110.2 109.6 123.8 107.7 106.1 108.8 110.1 109.2 123.7 108.5 105.8 108.9 110.6 109.8 124.3 109.7 106.1 109.1 111.1 110.2 125.9 109.7 106.2 109.8 111.0 109.9 125.5 109.7 106.2 109.8 95.16 77.02 36.79 108.0 109.3 112.6 107.4 108.5 110.9 108.3 108.4 111.0 108.1 109.2 111.8 108.6 109.5 112.5 108.5 109.5 112.6 109.0 110.1 113.6 109.4 110.8 114.5 109.6 110.4 113.9 94.46 76.32 36.09 112.9 115.4 126.5 112.7 115.1 125.8 113.4 114.9 125.5 113.3 115.7 126.6 113.9 116.0 127.3 113.8 116.2 127.6 114.3 116.8 128.8 114.9 117.7 130.3 115.3 117.6 130.3 89.62 71.48 108.4 109.9 108.1 109.5 108.9 109.2 108.6 110.0 109.1 110.2 109.0 110.3 109.3 110.7 109.7 111.4 110.1 111.2 12.85 17.95 130.1 106.9 128.3 107.0 128.1 107.2 128.8 108.1 129.2 108.9 129.3 109.2 130.3 109.6 132.5 110.2 131.8 110.2 Item Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 6 D IFFUSION I NDEXES OF I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Percent Item One month earlier 2005 2006 2007 Three months earlier 2005 2006 2007 Six months earlier 2005 2006 2007 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 54.8 63.4 46.9 50.5 48.2 53.6 52.1 58.7 57.8 52.5 60.4 59.1 56.4 50.2 51.2 56.1 61.1 58.7 56.8 59.4 56.4 51.2 51.2 61.1 46.5 58.4 41.6 58.4 43.2 52.1 59.4 58.7 61.4 45.2 61.4 56.8 53.5 54.8 63.0 50.2 53.1 59.7 61.1 57.8 56.1 60.1 60.1 61.1 62.4 57.8 58.1 62.4 57.8 57.4 56.8 52.5 56.1 43.2 56.4 36.6 57.8 45.5 58.7 59.1 36.3 57.4 57.4 42.2 59.7 64.0 42.9 58.1 63.0 54.1 62.7 62.0 57.1 59.1 64.0 56.8 61.1 61.4 63.4 55.8 64.4 62.4 59.4 63.0 47.5 59.4 44.2 56.4 46.9 NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 10 Table 7 C APACITY U TILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 2006 proportion 19722006 ave. 198889 high 199495 high 200102 low 2006 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2r 2007 Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 100.00 81.0 85.0 85.1 73.6 82.3 81.5 81.3 81.7 81.5 81.8 82.2 82.2 31–33 82.52 78.53 79.8 79.6 85.4 85.3 84.6 84.7 71.6 71.0 80.9 80.8 80.1 79.9 79.8 79.6 80.3 80.1 80.1 79.9 80.5 80.3 81.0 80.8 80.7 80.4 321 327 331 332 333 334 42.55 1.41 2.34 2.86 5.63 5.14 8.43 78.0 80.2 79.5 80.8 77.3 78.7 78.3 84.5 88.2 85.1 93.8 81.6 85.2 81.4 84.2 87.7 84.1 95.6 85.1 87.6 84.3 68.1 71.0 75.8 68.5 69.2 63.7 58.6 79.5 80.4 82.3 88.8 80.7 82.1 77.2 78.5 74.3 79.6 82.2 80.2 80.9 77.3 77.7 73.1 78.0 84.4 79.9 78.4 75.3 78.4 74.5 78.6 87.2 80.6 78.7 74.3 78.1 74.8 78.4 87.6 80.2 78.7 73.9 78.8 75.7 79.4 86.8 81.1 78.7 74.4 79.5 75.3 80.1 88.5 81.3 80.2 75.2 79.0 75.0 80.4 88.8 81.5 79.2 74.5 335 3361–3 1.90 5.92 83.2 77.5 89.1 89.7 93.1 89.0 71.8 68.9 85.4 75.6 84.3 74.7 85.0 73.6 86.3 76.7 85.9 75.9 86.4 78.2 87.1 79.0 86.3 77.3 3364–9 337 339 3.96 1.61 3.36 72.5 78.5 76.7 87.1 82.2 82.5 68.5 82.9 81.3 62.8 67.8 70.6 77.6 79.5 78.1 78.8 78.3 78.8 80.3 76.6 78.3 80.6 76.7 79.1 80.1 76.7 79.1 81.3 77.4 79.0 81.7 78.0 78.8 81.8 77.5 78.4 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 35.98 10.67 1.09 .70 2.46 2.08 3.77 12.01 3.20 81.7 81.6 82.3 78.7 87.8 83.7 86.2 78.3 83.9 86.8 85.9 91.2 84.3 92.5 91.8 89.0 85.1 89.8 85.4 84.1 91.4 87.1 92.0 86.4 90.6 81.4 91.9 74.9 75.6 68.8 59.5 78.9 72.7 83.7 70.2 75.1 82.4 81.1 78.3 74.1 85.4 79.3 93.1 79.5 87.5 81.6 82.2 75.8 74.1 85.5 80.5 90.1 77.7 84.8 82.0 82.6 74.6 74.9 84.3 80.6 92.3 77.8 85.4 82.1 83.1 75.6 75.2 84.1 78.4 90.7 78.0 86.7 82.0 82.8 75.7 75.5 84.1 78.2 91.5 78.0 86.7 82.1 83.5 76.0 74.9 83.6 77.3 91.1 78.0 86.9 82.4 83.1 74.8 74.9 84.3 77.1 91.8 78.6 87.7 82.2 82.5 74.1 73.8 84.4 77.7 91.0 78.8 87.4 1133,5111 3.99 84.7 91.0 83.3 81.3 83.2 84.6 84.0 84.4 84.0 84.5 84.5 84.2 21 2211,2 8.25 9.23 87.4 86.7 86.1 92.7 88.9 93.7 84.8 83.8 90.9 86.4 91.3 85.0 90.0 86.4 89.9 85.9 89.7 85.6 90.1 85.0 90.8 83.6 90.2 87.9 3341 3342 5.48 1.39 1.29 78.0 78.1 75.4 80.8 79.9 80.8 87.4 84.2 86.6 56.2 62.8 40.2 78.7 74.5 71.8 79.7 78.3 73.3 77.9 82.3 77.6 77.4 85.2 78.6 77.0 86.1 78.1 77.8 85.3 79.0 79.2 83.9 79.5 78.6 82.7 80.9 334412–9 2.80 80.6 82.9 93.5 58.1 83.5 82.7 75.6 72.9 71.9 73.3 76.6 75.6 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 94.52 77.04 81.2 79.9 85.4 85.9 85.0 84.5 74.7 72.8 82.6 81.3 81.8 80.3 81.7 80.2 82.1 80.7 81.9 80.6 82.3 81.0 82.5 81.4 82.6 81.0 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 12.41 48.00 39.59 86.5 82.2 77.8 88.1 86.5 82.8 89.5 88.2 80.5 82.0 74.6 70.0 89.4 84.1 77.9 89.1 82.3 78.2 88.7 82.2 78.0 89.2 82.3 78.6 89.2 82.1 78.4 89.3 82.4 78.8 89.9 82.5 79.2 89.6 83.1 78.8 Item Total industry 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. 11 Table 8 I NDUSTRIAL C APACITY Percent change Item 197279 Average annual rate 1980198988 94 Fourth quarter to fourth quarter 19952007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 Q4 Annual rate 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Monthly rate 2007 Aug. Total industry 3.1 2.0 2.3 3.3 .1 1.1 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 .1 Manufacturing1 3.3 2.3 2.6 3.7 .0 1.7 2.7 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 .2 Mining Utilities .8 4.3 .1 2.1 -.9 1.6 -.5 2.2 -.3 2.6 -1.7 .0 .6 2.1 .4 1.5 1.1 2.5 .9 2.1 .3 1.5 .2 1.2 .0 .1 20.9 19.1 17.3 27.2 4.3 18.3 19.6 19.6 18.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 1.5 2.6 1.3 1.6 1.6 -.2 .6 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.1 .9 .9 .1 1.7 3.0 3.9 .3 1.4 3.5 -.4 2.6 2.7 -.1 3.9 3.4 -.1 .4 .5 -1.1 1.4 2.0 .3 3.0 2.3 .5 2.3 1.9 .5 3.0 2.1 .5 2.8 2.0 .3 2.2 1.9 .4 2.1 1.9 .0 .2 .2 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing1 ex. selected high-technology industries S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 9 G ROSS VALUE OF F INAL P RODUCTS AND N ONINDUSTRIAL S UPPLIES Billions of 2000 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 2000 2006 2006 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2r 2007 Mayr Juner Julyr Aug.p 2,812.5 3,043.0 3,045.3 3,075.0 3,060.2 3,072.1 3,090.4 3,081.8 3,103.9 3,117.8 3,120.0 2,112.0 1,480.7 471.7 278.9 192.9 1,009.0 2,302.3 1,606.0 504.6 296.1 208.2 1,097.5 2,302.5 1,607.9 511.4 301.5 209.6 1,094.0 2,327.4 1,619.6 503.1 293.1 209.6 1,111.5 2,321.5 1,610.7 498.2 291.1 206.7 1,107.0 2,332.3 1,627.7 496.8 290.4 206.0 1,124.1 2,344.7 1,637.6 514.1 304.8 209.3 1,119.2 2,337.0 1,632.1 509.3 300.2 208.8 1,118.0 2,356.3 1,644.6 520.8 310.2 210.6 1,120.2 2,373.2 1,654.4 525.3 314.7 210.6 1,125.7 2,368.9 1,653.6 518.0 307.5 210.4 1,131.1 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 631.3 614.9 556.8 58.2 706.0 689.1 619.8 71.4 704.0 686.5 617.0 71.5 718.4 701.3 631.4 72.2 722.2 706.0 637.4 71.4 714.5 697.3 628.3 71.5 716.8 699.7 631.0 71.3 714.6 697.7 629.4 70.9 721.7 704.2 634.5 72.2 729.1 712.3 642.3 72.6 725.3 708.5 639.1 72.1 Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 700.5 197.2 503.3 136.0 741.1 207.8 533.2 154.7 743.1 209.6 533.4 154.4 748.1 209.2 538.9 157.7 739.6 204.0 535.7 156.3 740.8 202.8 538.2 157.5 746.5 205.9 540.7 158.1 745.6 205.8 539.8 158.0 748.6 207.7 540.9 157.7 746.2 207.9 538.2 154.6 752.1 207.8 544.4 160.2 Item Final products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable r Revised. p Preliminary. Table 10 G ROSS -VALUE -W EIGHTED I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S TAGE - OF -P ROCESS G ROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Finished Semifinished Primary Crude 2006 gross value1 2004 2005 2006 2006 Q3 1980.5 1754.9 992.6 420.0 2.4 2.4 4.5 5.2 5.6 6.2 -.8 -8.3 3.4 2.5 .1 7.1 2.3 5.7 5.0 2.5 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Billions of 2000 dollars. 12 Annual rate 2007 Q4 Q1 r Q2 2007 Mayr June 2.3 -2.7 -13.3 -3.4 4.8 3.8 .9 4.3 -.4 .2 .2 .0 1.0 .7 -.2 .4 -1.2 .2 7.2 .9 Monthly rate r r July .9 .2 .7 .6 Aug. p -.8 .6 .6 -.1 Aug. ’06 to Aug. ’07 2.0 1.1 -.4 1.6 Table 11 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)1 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.3 .5 -.3 .0 .2 .4 -.8 1.3 .4 -.5 .2 -.6 .2 .3 .3 -.2 .1 .6 .5 .0 .1 .2 .7 -.1 -.7 .1 -.3 .5 .2 .0 -.6 .6 .6 .2 -.9 .5 -.2 .7 .5 1.0 .4 .2 .3 -.3 -.3 -.4 .4 1.5 .6 -.1 .3 .5 .5 .2 .3 1.0 .9 .5 .4 .7 1.2 2.4 5.4 3.4 1.5 .7 -2.4 7.2 3.4 -1.8 -.5 1.7 7.3 2.1 -2.4 2.7 4.6 9.9 3.3 1.8 1.4 1.1 5.1 5.1 .9 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.6 -.5 -.5 .5 .5 .9 -.7 .7 .3 .0 .5 -.5 .8 .0 1.0 -.1 .2 .7 .3 .5 .2 1.0 .4 -.4 .5 .3 1.0 .1 .3 .7 -.2 .0 .8 .4 .2 .3 .2 -.5 .0 .5 .2 .9 .2 .5 .3 -.7 -.2 .7 .8 .9 -1.2 -.1 .4 .4 .7 -.7 -.3 .1 .6 1.1 3.0 -7.6 -.3 3.7 5.6 2.8 2.7 7.1 1.1 7.3 1.4 5.7 3.1 2.4 5.1 -5.9 1.0 4.0 6.4 8.3 1.0 -1.5 2.9 3.4 5.5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .4 -.8 .2 .5 .6 .1 1.5 1.2 .1 .5 .1 -.2 .8 .0 .2 -.1 .9 -.1 .5 .2 .2 .7 .6 .7 .8 .3 .9 .4 -.5 -.1 -.4 -.2 .5 -.3 .7 1.3 .7 1.3 2.2 .5 .4 .5 .9 -.2 -.4 -.2 .0 .8 .7 1.3 .3 .9 1.0 -.1 .6 .3 .7 .4 .4 .9 6.0 2.0 8.3 4.7 4.9 1.0 8.4 5.5 3.3 4.0 3.8 5.2 9.0 3.8 4.4 3.5 6.1 11.1 5.3 8.2 5.0 4.3 7.2 6.1 4.7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 .1 -.7 .5 .6 .2 .4 -.6 .1 .3 .7 .4 -.4 .8 -.2 -.6 .8 -.3 .4 -.8 .6 .3 -.7 .4 -.1 .6 .1 -.6 .9 .2 -.7 -.3 -.4 -.3 .4 .6 -.3 -.4 .2 -.1 .2 .5 -.4 .1 .5 -.2 -.5 -.6 -.3 -.1 .7 .0 -.5 .4 .8 .2 -.4 .0 -.4 .0 .6 5.3 -5.7 2.7 2.3 3.3 5.9 -5.4 6.4 -3.2 2.5 -.5 -5.6 2.3 2.5 1.8 -1.6 -5.1 -.4 3.3 4.3 4.5 -3.5 .0 1.1 2.5 2005 2006 2007 .3 .0 -.5 .6 .3 .8 -.1 .5 -.1 .1 .9 .6 .4 -.1 -.1 .6 .9 .6 .0 .4 .5 .3 .2 .2 -1.6 -.3 1.2 -.2 1.1 -.4 .8 .6 4.6 5.0 1.1 2.8 6.5 3.5 .8 4.0 4.7 -1.5 3.2 3.9 IP (2002=100) 2005 2006 2007 105.6 109.1 111.7 106.2 109.4 112.5 106.1 110.0 112.4 106.2 110.9 113.1 106.6 110.9 113.0 107.3 111.9 113.6 107.3 112.3 114.2 107.6 112.5 114.4 105.8 112.2 107.1 112.0 108.2 111.5 109.1 112.2 106.0 109.5 112.2 106.7 111.2 113.2 106.9 112.3 108.1 111.9 106.9 111.1 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2005 2006 2007 132.7 134.6 137.8 132.7 134.8 138.0 132.8 135.1 138.2 132.9 135.4 138.4 133.0 135.7 138.6 133.1 136.0 138.8 133.2 136.2 139.0 133.4 136.5 139.2 133.6 136.8 133.8 137.0 134.1 137.3 134.3 137.5 132.7 134.9 138.0 133.0 135.7 138.6 133.4 136.5 134.1 137.3 133.3 136.1 Utilization (percent) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 80.0 79.8 79.0 83.2 85.0 80.1 79.0 79.9 83.5 84.5 80.0 78.4 79.9 83.6 84.6 79.7 78.4 80.2 84.0 84.4 79.6 78.4 80.5 83.9 83.7 79.4 78.1 80.8 84.0 83.6 78.7 78.5 81.1 84.1 82.6 78.9 78.3 81.6 84.5 83.3 79.1 78.3 81.6 84.2 82.8 78.6 78.6 82.7 84.6 82.6 78.8 78.8 83.0 84.7 82.7 79.5 79.4 83.3 84.9 83.1 80.0 79.1 79.6 83.4 84.7 79.6 78.3 80.5 84.0 83.9 78.9 78.4 81.4 84.2 82.9 79.0 78.9 83.0 84.7 82.8 79.4 78.7 81.1 84.1 83.6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 82.4 79.7 79.0 81.1 82.6 83.0 79.0 79.4 81.3 82.4 83.2 78.5 79.9 81.1 83.1 82.9 78.6 80.3 81.3 83.3 82.9 79.3 80.4 80.9 83.5 83.0 79.9 80.3 81.0 83.8 82.7 79.8 80.8 81.2 83.7 82.8 79.8 80.3 81.1 83.8 82.8 80.4 80.3 81.4 83.8 82.1 80.1 80.8 81.8 84.2 80.9 79.9 80.9 82.0 84.4 80.2 79.5 80.8 82.3 85.1 82.9 79.1 79.4 81.2 82.7 82.9 79.3 80.3 81.1 83.5 82.7 80.0 80.5 81.2 83.8 81.1 79.9 80.8 82.1 84.6 82.4 79.6 80.3 81.4 83.6 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 85.1 82.3 83.3 84.3 82.1 84.8 83.2 83.8 83.9 82.1 84.6 82.6 84.1 83.3 81.9 84.1 83.0 83.6 83.2 81.8 84.0 83.2 83.6 83.2 82.1 83.9 83.6 83.5 82.3 81.6 83.2 83.0 83.5 81.6 81.8 84.0 83.2 84.0 82.9 81.9 84.0 83.3 84.3 82.3 81.3 83.5 83.0 84.4 82.5 82.0 83.4 83.3 84.7 82.0 82.2 83.3 83.5 84.5 81.9 82.6 84.8 82.7 83.7 83.8 82.0 84.0 83.3 83.6 82.9 81.8 83.7 83.2 83.9 82.3 81.7 83.4 83.3 84.5 82.2 82.3 84.0 83.1 83.9 82.8 81.9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 82.3 79.2 73.8 75.7 77.2 82.3 78.5 73.8 76.0 77.8 82.3 78.0 74.3 75.9 77.3 82.6 77.5 74.5 75.4 77.8 82.5 76.8 74.7 75.4 78.2 82.3 76.2 75.4 75.7 77.7 81.8 75.7 75.1 76.0 78.1 81.3 75.3 75.2 76.0 78.3 81.4 74.8 75.3 76.4 78.2 80.8 74.2 75.1 76.4 78.7 80.5 73.7 75.5 77.1 78.9 79.9 73.6 75.2 77.1 79.4 82.3 78.5 74.0 75.9 77.5 82.5 76.9 74.9 75.5 77.9 81.5 75.3 75.2 76.1 78.2 80.4 73.8 75.3 76.8 79.0 81.7 76.1 74.8 76.1 78.1 2005 2006 2007 79.6 81.1 81.1 80.0 81.1 81.6 79.9 81.4 81.4 79.9 81.9 81.7 80.2 81.7 81.5 80.6 82.3 81.8 80.5 82.4 82.2 80.7 82.4 82.2 79.2 82.0 80.0 81.7 80.7 81.3 81.3 81.6 79.8 81.2 81.3 80.2 82.0 81.7 80.1 82.3 80.7 81.5 80.2 81.7 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 13 Table 12 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.4 1.1 -.3 -.2 .7 -.3 -.7 1.4 .1 -1.0 .8 -.3 .1 .3 -.1 -.3 .4 .5 .8 .1 .1 .2 .8 -.1 -.8 .2 -.3 .4 .1 .1 -.6 .5 .7 .1 -1.1 .6 .3 .5 .1 1.0 .1 .2 .6 .4 -.3 -.2 .4 1.6 .6 -.2 .7 .5 .6 .3 .2 .4 .9 .6 .4 .2 .3 4.6 6.0 2.4 1.7 1.1 .0 7.0 4.3 -3.2 .3 2.5 7.2 1.4 -2.9 2.5 5.0 11.4 5.0 .6 1.9 2.3 5.7 5.3 .8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.2 -.8 -.5 1.1 .3 1.4 -.7 .8 .1 .1 .4 -.6 .9 -.2 1.3 -.2 .3 .5 .6 .8 .1 .7 .6 -.1 .7 .2 1.1 .3 -.1 .3 -.2 .2 .8 .3 .5 .3 .3 -.4 -.1 .7 .0 1.1 .1 .6 .4 -.8 -.2 .6 .8 1.0 -1.1 -.2 .4 .4 .8 -.7 -.1 -.1 .6 1.2 4.5 -9.0 .7 4.6 5.5 2.6 2.3 8.1 1.6 9.2 .8 7.4 4.2 1.7 6.0 -6.5 1.8 2.8 7.2 10.1 .8 -1.9 3.8 3.7 6.1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .4 -.9 .1 .8 .4 .0 1.5 1.4 .0 .8 .2 -.3 1.1 -.2 -.1 -.2 1.1 -.3 .6 .3 .0 .7 .8 .5 1.0 .4 1.1 .6 -.6 -.3 -.6 .3 .4 -.4 .5 1.2 .6 1.5 2.6 .7 .9 .7 .9 -.3 -.3 -.1 .0 .8 .9 1.6 .1 .9 1.2 .2 .8 .3 .9 .5 .5 .8 6.4 1.1 9.8 6.3 5.4 .4 9.6 6.6 2.8 4.5 3.1 7.6 10.0 4.1 4.1 4.4 6.5 12.1 7.5 9.9 5.5 4.6 8.5 6.9 5.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 .2 -.6 .4 .5 .0 .3 -.6 .1 .0 .7 .7 -.4 .8 .2 -.1 .7 -.3 .1 -.9 .6 .0 -.7 .6 -.1 .6 .2 -.6 1.1 .6 -.7 -.1 -.3 -.4 .1 .8 -.6 -.7 .4 -.2 .6 .5 -.3 .1 .7 -.3 -.4 -.7 -.5 -.1 .7 -.4 -.3 .4 1.0 .0 -.7 .2 -.4 -.1 .6 5.8 -6.6 3.1 1.7 2.9 5.8 -5.7 5.8 -2.3 3.7 -.7 -6.2 3.1 2.2 3.5 -3.2 -5.0 -.8 3.7 3.7 4.8 -4.2 .0 1.1 2.9 2005 2006 2007 .5 .8 -.6 .6 -.2 -.1 -.2 .4 .7 .2 1.0 .4 .6 -.2 .1 .4 .9 .7 .1 .4 .7 .4 .4 -.3 -.8 .0 1.5 -.8 .9 -.2 .4 1.1 5.1 5.5 .8 3.1 5.5 4.4 1.9 4.4 7.5 -1.7 3.9 4.6 IP (2002=100) 2005 2006 2007 106.4 111.5 113.7 107.0 111.2 113.6 106.7 111.7 114.4 106.9 112.8 114.8 107.6 112.6 114.9 108.0 113.5 115.7 108.1 113.9 116.6 108.4 114.3 116.3 107.5 114.3 109.2 113.4 110.1 113.2 110.6 114.4 106.7 111.5 113.9 107.5 113.0 115.2 108.0 114.2 110.0 113.7 108.0 113.0 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2005 2006 2007 136.0 138.9 142.5 136.2 139.2 142.7 136.3 139.5 143.0 136.5 139.9 143.2 136.6 140.2 143.5 136.9 140.5 143.7 137.1 140.8 143.9 137.3 141.1 144.2 137.6 141.3 137.9 141.6 138.2 141.9 138.6 142.2 136.2 139.2 142.7 136.6 140.2 143.5 137.4 141.1 138.2 141.9 137.1 140.6 Utilization (percent) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 79.1 78.9 78.9 83.0 85.4 78.6 78.3 79.9 83.0 84.4 79.0 78.0 79.7 83.2 84.2 78.5 78.2 79.9 83.9 84.1 78.4 78.3 80.4 83.7 83.2 78.3 77.9 80.5 83.8 83.2 77.7 78.2 80.9 83.8 82.1 78.0 78.3 81.1 83.9 82.6 77.9 78.4 81.4 84.1 82.2 77.6 78.5 82.5 84.5 81.9 77.9 78.8 82.9 84.7 81.9 78.2 79.3 83.2 84.9 81.8 78.9 78.4 79.5 83.1 84.7 78.4 78.1 80.3 83.8 83.5 77.9 78.3 81.1 83.9 82.3 77.9 78.9 82.9 84.7 81.9 78.3 78.4 80.9 83.9 83.1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 81.5 78.4 78.0 80.3 81.3 82.5 77.7 78.5 80.3 81.2 82.6 77.1 79.0 80.0 82.1 82.2 77.2 79.3 80.3 82.5 82.2 77.7 79.6 80.1 82.7 82.2 78.4 79.7 79.9 82.7 81.9 78.5 80.2 80.1 82.8 81.9 78.6 79.7 79.9 83.1 81.8 79.3 79.5 80.2 83.1 81.0 79.0 79.8 80.8 83.6 79.9 78.7 79.9 80.9 83.9 79.2 78.5 79.6 81.3 84.6 82.2 77.7 78.5 80.2 81.5 82.2 77.8 79.5 80.1 82.6 81.8 78.8 79.8 80.0 83.0 80.0 78.8 79.8 81.0 84.0 81.6 78.3 79.4 80.3 82.8 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 84.6 81.0 82.1 83.6 81.0 84.2 81.8 82.8 83.0 81.2 84.0 81.2 83.3 82.3 80.8 83.5 81.7 82.5 82.2 80.7 83.1 81.8 82.7 82.1 81.1 83.1 82.3 82.7 81.0 80.5 82.2 82.0 82.4 80.2 80.5 82.7 82.1 83.2 81.8 80.7 83.1 82.3 83.3 81.1 80.0 82.6 81.8 83.4 81.4 80.9 82.3 82.2 83.8 81.1 81.1 82.1 82.5 83.6 81.1 81.4 84.3 81.3 82.8 83.0 81.0 83.2 81.9 82.6 81.8 80.7 82.7 82.2 83.0 81.0 80.4 82.3 82.2 83.6 81.2 81.1 83.1 81.9 83.0 81.7 80.8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 81.1 76.9 71.9 73.7 75.3 81.0 76.2 71.9 73.8 75.8 81.2 75.7 72.4 74.1 75.7 81.4 75.3 72.4 73.5 76.2 81.0 74.6 72.8 73.5 76.6 80.8 73.9 73.6 74.0 76.1 80.4 73.5 73.2 74.1 76.7 79.6 72.9 73.5 74.0 77.2 79.7 72.5 73.6 74.6 76.9 79.0 71.9 73.3 74.5 77.4 78.4 71.6 73.6 75.3 77.4 77.6 71.7 73.3 75.2 77.8 81.1 76.3 72.0 73.9 75.6 81.1 74.6 72.9 73.6 76.3 79.9 73.0 73.5 74.2 76.9 78.3 71.7 73.4 75.0 77.6 80.1 73.9 73.0 74.2 76.6 2005 2006 2007 78.2 80.3 79.8 78.6 79.9 79.6 78.3 80.1 80.0 78.4 80.7 80.2 78.7 80.3 80.1 78.9 80.8 80.5 78.8 80.9 81.0 79.0 81.1 80.7 78.1 80.9 79.2 80.1 79.7 79.8 79.8 80.5 78.4 80.1 79.8 78.7 80.6 80.3 78.6 80.9 79.6 80.1 78.8 80.4 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 14 Table 13 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, High-Technology Industries1 AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Excluding Selected Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.3 .5 -.5 .0 .3 .5 -.8 1.2 .4 -.5 .2 -.7 .2 .2 .3 -.1 .0 .5 .5 -.1 .1 .1 .6 -.2 -.7 .0 -.2 .4 .2 .0 -.5 .3 .5 .1 -1.1 .4 -.2 .6 .5 .9 .5 .2 .2 -.4 -.3 -.4 .4 1.4 .5 -.2 .3 .4 .5 .2 .3 1.1 .8 .4 .4 .7 .9 2.3 4.4 3.0 1.8 1.1 -2.7 6.4 2.7 -2.0 -.2 .5 6.1 1.4 -3.3 2.6 4.0 9.0 2.9 1.0 1.0 .9 4.3 4.4 .6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.7 -.5 -.8 .5 .4 .9 -.8 .7 .3 .0 .4 -.6 .7 -.1 .9 -.2 .2 .6 .3 .3 .1 1.0 .3 -.4 .4 .2 1.0 -.1 .2 .6 -.2 .0 .8 .3 .1 .3 .1 -.6 -.1 .3 .1 .9 .2 .4 .0 -.8 -.2 .6 .7 .6 -1.2 -.2 .3 .3 .4 -.7 -.5 .0 .5 .9 2.2 -8.1 -1.9 3.0 4.2 2.3 2.2 6.1 .4 5.4 1.0 5.4 1.8 1.6 3.3 -6.5 .4 2.9 5.1 5.5 .3 -2.0 1.9 2.5 4.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .2 -1.0 -.1 .2 .2 -.2 1.4 .8 -.1 .2 -.2 -.4 .5 -.1 -.1 -.3 .8 -.4 .2 -.2 .0 .4 .3 .5 .6 .1 .7 .2 -.9 -.5 -.5 -.5 .3 -.8 .3 1.1 .4 1.0 2.0 .4 .1 .4 .7 -.6 -.5 -.5 -.2 .7 .5 1.2 .1 .8 .7 -.3 .3 .2 .5 .2 .0 .6 3.0 -.3 5.0 1.7 .9 -1.4 6.0 2.1 1.0 .3 1.5 2.2 6.0 -.2 1.2 .4 3.4 8.3 2.2 5.5 2.4 1.7 4.2 3.1 1.2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -.3 -.7 .7 .5 .1 .0 -.5 .1 .2 .6 .1 -.4 .8 -.3 -.6 .4 -.1 .4 -.8 .7 .0 -.6 .4 -.1 .6 -.1 -.4 .9 .2 -.8 -.5 -.3 -.3 .3 .7 -.4 -.3 .1 -.1 .2 .4 -.5 .0 .5 -.2 -.6 -.6 -.4 -.1 .7 -.2 -.5 .3 .8 .2 -.5 -.1 -.6 -.1 .6 .7 -6.4 2.9 1.0 1.9 1.7 -4.1 6.1 -4.0 2.6 -2.9 -4.3 1.7 1.7 1.6 -3.0 -5.3 -1.3 2.7 4.0 1.1 -4.1 .1 .2 1.9 2005 2006 2007 .2 -.1 -.5 .5 .2 .8 -.2 .4 -.2 -.1 .7 .5 .3 -.2 -.2 .6 .8 .5 -.1 .3 .4 .2 .1 .2 -1.9 -.5 1.0 -.3 1.0 -.5 .8 .6 3.8 4.5 .6 1.5 5.2 2.9 -.5 2.9 3.0 -2.7 2.5 2.8 IP (2002=100) 2005 2006 2007 103.9 106.1 107.4 104.4 106.3 108.3 104.2 106.8 108.1 104.2 107.6 108.6 104.4 107.4 108.5 105.1 108.3 109.0 105.0 108.6 109.4 105.2 108.7 109.6 103.2 108.2 104.2 107.9 105.3 107.4 106.2 108.0 104.2 106.4 107.9 104.6 107.7 108.7 104.4 108.5 105.2 107.8 104.6 107.5 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2005 2006 2007 129.7 130.2 132.0 129.7 130.4 132.1 129.7 130.5 132.2 129.7 130.7 132.3 129.6 130.8 132.4 129.7 131.0 132.5 129.7 131.2 132.5 129.7 131.3 132.6 129.8 131.5 129.9 131.6 130.0 131.8 130.1 131.9 129.7 130.4 132.1 129.7 130.8 132.4 129.7 131.3 130.0 131.8 129.8 131.1 Utilization (percent) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 79.7 80.2 79.2 83.6 85.4 79.9 79.4 80.1 83.9 84.9 79.9 78.8 80.1 84.0 85.1 79.7 78.8 80.4 84.4 84.9 79.6 78.8 80.8 84.2 84.2 79.5 78.6 81.1 84.3 84.0 78.9 78.8 81.4 84.4 83.0 79.1 78.5 81.8 84.8 83.6 79.4 78.6 81.9 84.4 83.2 79.0 78.8 83.0 84.8 82.9 79.1 79.1 83.3 84.9 83.0 79.8 79.6 83.6 85.2 83.4 79.8 79.5 79.8 83.8 85.1 79.6 78.7 80.8 84.3 84.3 79.1 78.6 81.7 84.5 83.3 79.3 79.2 83.3 85.0 83.1 79.5 79.0 81.4 84.4 84.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 82.7 80.0 79.0 81.2 82.6 83.3 79.3 79.4 81.4 82.5 83.5 78.7 79.9 81.3 83.1 83.2 78.8 80.4 81.4 83.2 83.2 79.5 80.5 81.0 83.5 83.3 80.1 80.3 81.1 83.8 83.0 80.1 80.9 81.3 83.8 83.1 80.0 80.3 81.2 83.9 83.1 80.6 80.4 81.4 83.8 82.4 80.4 80.8 81.9 84.2 81.2 80.1 81.0 82.1 84.4 80.5 79.6 80.9 82.4 85.0 83.2 79.4 79.4 81.3 82.7 83.2 79.5 80.4 81.2 83.5 83.1 80.2 80.5 81.3 83.8 81.4 80.1 80.9 82.1 84.5 82.7 79.8 80.3 81.5 83.6 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 85.0 82.2 83.4 84.3 82.2 84.7 83.2 83.9 84.0 82.1 84.4 82.7 84.1 83.6 81.8 84.0 83.2 83.5 83.6 81.5 83.8 83.4 83.4 83.8 81.8 83.8 83.8 83.3 82.8 81.3 83.2 83.2 83.3 82.0 81.4 83.9 83.4 83.8 83.3 81.5 83.9 83.5 84.1 82.6 81.0 83.3 83.1 84.4 82.8 81.8 83.2 83.6 84.7 82.4 81.9 83.2 83.8 84.5 82.2 82.2 84.7 82.7 83.8 84.0 82.1 83.9 83.4 83.4 83.4 81.6 83.6 83.4 83.7 82.7 81.3 83.2 83.5 84.5 82.5 81.9 83.9 83.3 83.9 83.1 81.7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 81.8 78.8 75.2 76.9 77.7 81.7 78.3 75.2 77.1 78.2 81.6 77.9 75.7 77.0 77.7 81.8 77.8 75.9 76.4 78.2 81.7 77.3 76.2 76.4 78.7 81.5 76.9 76.9 76.6 78.1 81.0 76.6 76.7 76.8 78.6 80.6 76.3 76.7 76.8 78.8 80.8 75.8 76.8 77.2 78.6 80.2 75.3 76.5 77.1 79.2 80.0 74.9 76.8 77.7 79.4 79.5 74.7 76.4 77.7 79.9 81.7 78.4 75.3 77.0 77.9 81.7 77.3 76.4 76.4 78.4 80.8 76.2 76.7 76.9 78.7 79.9 75.0 76.6 77.5 79.5 81.0 76.7 76.3 77.0 78.6 2005 2006 2007 80.1 81.5 81.4 80.5 81.5 81.9 80.4 81.8 81.8 80.3 82.3 82.1 80.6 82.1 81.9 81.1 82.7 82.3 80.9 82.8 82.5 81.1 82.8 82.6 79.5 82.3 80.2 82.0 81.0 81.5 81.6 81.9 80.3 81.6 81.7 80.6 82.3 82.1 80.5 82.6 80.9 81.8 80.6 82.1 1. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 15 Table 14 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)3 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.5 1.2 -.5 -.2 .8 -.3 -.7 1.4 .2 -1.1 .9 -.3 .1 .2 -.1 -.2 .4 .4 .8 .0 .1 .1 .7 -.2 -.9 .1 -.2 .3 .0 .1 -.4 .2 .6 .0 -1.3 .6 .2 .3 .1 .9 .2 .2 .5 .3 -.3 -.3 .3 1.5 .5 -.3 .6 .4 .5 .3 .1 .4 .8 .5 .4 .1 -.2 4.7 4.7 1.9 2.0 1.7 -.3 5.9 3.5 -3.6 .7 1.2 5.7 .5 -4.0 2.5 4.3 10.4 4.6 -.4 1.4 2.2 4.6 4.4 .4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.3 -.8 -.8 1.1 .1 1.4 -.8 .8 .0 .0 .3 -.8 .9 -.3 1.2 -.3 .4 .4 .5 .6 .1 .6 .5 -.1 .5 .2 1.1 .1 -.2 .2 -.2 .3 .7 .3 .3 .3 .2 -.5 -.2 .5 -.1 1.1 .0 .5 .1 -.8 -.2 .4 .7 .7 -1.2 -.3 .3 .3 .6 -.8 -.3 -.2 .5 .9 3.7 -9.8 -1.2 3.8 3.9 2.0 1.5 6.9 .8 7.1 .3 7.1 2.6 .6 3.9 -7.2 1.0 1.5 5.7 6.7 .0 -2.6 2.6 2.6 4.4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .2 -1.2 -.2 .5 .0 -.3 1.3 1.0 -.1 .5 -.1 -.5 .9 -.3 -.5 -.4 1.0 -.7 .4 -.1 -.2 .4 .5 .4 .8 .2 .8 .4 -1.1 -.7 -.8 -.1 .1 -.9 .0 .9 .4 1.3 2.4 .6 .6 .5 .7 -.7 -.5 -.4 -.4 .6 .7 1.4 -.1 .8 .9 -.1 .4 .1 .7 .2 .2 .4 3.0 -1.7 6.0 3.0 .9 -2.5 6.8 2.6 .0 .2 .3 4.1 6.6 -.6 .4 .8 3.2 8.8 4.0 6.9 2.5 1.5 4.9 3.5 1.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -.3 -.6 .5 .4 -.2 -.1 -.5 .0 -.2 .6 .3 -.4 .8 .2 -.2 .3 -.1 .1 -1.0 .7 -.4 -.6 .6 -.1 .6 .0 -.5 1.0 .5 -.7 -.4 -.1 -.5 .0 .8 -.8 -.7 .3 -.3 .6 .4 -.4 .0 .7 -.4 -.6 -.7 -.6 -.2 .7 -.6 -.3 .3 1.0 .0 -.9 .1 -.6 -.3 .5 .5 -7.5 3.4 .1 1.3 .9 -4.1 5.4 -3.1 3.9 -3.5 -4.7 2.4 1.2 3.3 -5.0 -5.2 -2.0 3.0 3.4 .8 -4.9 .1 .0 2.2 2005 2006 2007 .4 .8 -.7 .5 -.3 -.1 -.3 .3 .7 .0 .8 .3 .5 -.4 .0 .3 .8 .6 -.1 .3 .6 .2 .2 -.3 -1.1 -.3 1.4 -.9 .8 -.2 .4 1.1 4.1 4.9 .3 1.6 3.8 3.7 .4 3.0 5.5 -3.3 3.0 3.2 IP (2002=100) 2005 2006 2007 104.3 107.9 108.5 104.8 107.5 108.4 104.5 107.8 109.2 104.5 108.7 109.5 105.0 108.3 109.5 105.3 109.2 110.1 105.3 109.5 110.8 105.5 109.7 110.4 104.3 109.4 105.8 108.4 106.6 108.2 107.0 109.3 104.5 107.7 108.7 104.9 108.7 109.7 105.0 109.5 106.5 108.6 105.2 108.6 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2005 2006 2007 132.6 133.7 135.5 132.6 133.9 135.6 132.7 134.0 135.7 132.7 134.2 135.8 132.8 134.3 135.9 132.8 134.5 136.0 132.9 134.7 136.1 133.0 134.8 136.2 133.1 135.0 133.3 135.1 133.4 135.2 133.6 135.4 132.6 133.9 135.6 132.8 134.3 135.9 133.0 134.8 133.4 135.2 133.0 134.6 Utilization (percent) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 78.6 79.4 79.1 83.4 85.9 78.3 78.8 80.1 83.5 84.9 78.8 78.4 80.0 83.7 84.7 78.5 78.7 80.2 84.3 84.6 78.4 78.7 80.7 84.1 83.7 78.3 78.4 80.8 84.2 83.7 77.9 78.5 81.2 84.1 82.4 78.2 78.6 81.4 84.2 83.0 78.2 78.7 81.7 84.4 82.7 77.9 78.8 82.9 84.8 82.2 78.3 79.0 83.3 85.0 82.2 78.5 79.6 83.6 85.3 82.2 78.6 78.9 79.7 83.5 85.2 78.4 78.6 80.6 84.2 84.0 78.1 78.6 81.4 84.2 82.7 78.2 79.1 83.2 85.0 82.2 78.3 78.8 81.2 84.3 83.5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 81.8 78.7 77.9 80.4 81.2 82.8 77.9 78.4 80.4 81.2 82.9 77.2 79.0 80.1 82.0 82.6 77.4 79.3 80.4 82.4 82.5 77.8 79.6 80.2 82.7 82.5 78.6 79.7 80.0 82.7 82.2 78.7 80.2 80.1 82.8 82.3 78.7 79.7 79.9 83.1 82.1 79.5 79.6 80.2 83.1 81.3 79.3 79.8 80.7 83.5 80.2 78.9 80.0 80.9 83.8 79.5 78.6 79.7 81.2 84.5 82.5 78.0 78.4 80.3 81.5 82.5 77.9 79.5 80.2 82.6 82.2 79.0 79.8 80.1 83.0 80.3 78.9 79.8 81.0 83.9 81.9 78.4 79.4 80.4 82.8 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 84.4 80.8 82.2 83.5 81.0 84.0 81.7 82.8 83.1 81.2 83.7 81.1 83.2 82.5 80.6 83.2 81.7 82.3 82.6 80.3 82.9 81.9 82.4 82.6 80.7 82.9 82.4 82.4 81.4 80.0 82.0 82.2 82.1 80.5 79.8 82.6 82.3 82.9 82.1 80.2 82.9 82.4 83.1 81.3 79.5 82.3 81.9 83.2 81.6 80.5 82.0 82.3 83.6 81.3 80.7 81.9 82.6 83.5 81.2 80.8 84.0 81.2 82.7 83.1 80.9 83.0 82.0 82.4 82.2 80.3 82.5 82.3 82.7 81.3 79.8 82.1 82.3 83.4 81.4 80.7 82.9 81.9 82.8 82.0 80.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 80.4 76.3 73.3 75.0 75.7 80.2 75.8 73.3 74.9 76.2 80.3 75.5 73.9 75.1 76.0 80.4 75.4 73.9 74.5 76.6 79.9 74.9 74.4 74.4 77.1 79.8 74.5 75.2 74.9 76.5 79.3 74.4 74.8 74.9 77.2 78.6 73.8 75.1 74.7 77.6 78.8 73.5 75.2 75.3 77.3 78.2 73.0 74.8 75.2 77.9 77.7 72.8 75.0 76.0 77.9 76.9 72.9 74.6 75.8 78.3 80.3 75.9 73.5 75.0 76.0 80.0 74.9 74.5 74.6 76.7 78.9 73.9 75.0 75.0 77.4 77.6 72.9 74.8 75.7 78.1 79.2 74.4 74.5 75.1 77.0 2005 2006 2007 78.7 80.7 80.1 79.0 80.3 80.0 78.8 80.5 80.4 78.7 81.0 80.6 79.1 80.6 80.6 79.3 81.2 81.0 79.2 81.3 81.4 79.3 81.4 81.0 78.4 81.1 79.4 80.3 79.9 80.0 80.1 80.7 78.8 80.5 80.2 79.0 80.9 80.7 79.0 81.3 79.8 80.3 79.2 80.8 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 16 Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: E XPLANATORY N OTE The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. A Im A Im−1 s P P I p I p P m m−1 × P m m = Im−1 pm−1 Im−1 pm The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 8 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 8/10 percentage point (0.08 x 10% = 0.8%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2002. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries-logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing-that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 300 individual series based on the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html). Changes in output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of the statistical tables, see below. Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 70 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about 84 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 96 percent in the third month, and 97 percent in the fourth month. Data availability by data type is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2005) Month of estimate Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 27 42 54 54 Production-worker hours 43 43 43 43 IP data received 70 84 96 97 IP data estimated 30 16 4 3 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (25 percent out of total of 52 percent). Of the 25 percent, about two-thirds (17 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of the first month of a quarter. About 3 percent of the source data for monthly IP—all physical product measures—are available too late for direct inclusion in the current index and are incorporated at the time of an annual historical revision. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through 17 September 2006; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 2006. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. related capacity index. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC (currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the SPC. Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent during the 1987–2005 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–2005 period. In most cases (about 86 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. C APACITY U TILIZATION Perspective. Over the 1972–2005 period, the average total industry utilization rate is 81.0 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate has been 79.8 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES References. The annual revision published in November 2005 is described in an article published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 92, pp. A39–A58. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital stock doc-latest.pdf. Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 87 detailed industries (69 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005). Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 24 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries account for a bit less than 72 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap notes.html). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2007: January 17, February 15, March 16, April 17, May 16, June 15, July 17, August 15, September 14, October 16, November 16, and December 14. 2008: January 16, February 15, March 17, April 16, May 15, June 17, July 16, August 15, September 15, October 16, November 17, and December 15. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the 18