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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release
G.17 (419)

For release at 10:30 a.m. (EST)
November 24, 1998

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: A Revision
The Federal Reserve has revised the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of
capacity and utilization for the period 1992 to date. For the third quarter of 1998, the revision places the
production index at 131.7 percent of output in 1992, compared with 128.2 percent reported previously (table 1).1
The revision places the capacity index at 161.5 percent of output in 1992, compared with 158.1 percent reported
previously. As a result, the rate of industrial capacity utilization—the ratio of production to capacity—was revised
up 0.4 percentage point, to 81.5 percent, in the third quarter of 1998.
The updated measures reflect both the typical incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive
source data and the introduction of modifications in the methods used to compile selected series. The statistical
revisions are principally derived from the inclusion of the 1996 Annual Survey of Manufactures and the
1997 Survey of Plant Capacity and affect data since 1994. The changes in methods were introduced beginning in
1992.
Growth in the output and capacity of high-technology industries is now estimated to have been more
rapid than previously shown. Outside of the high-technology industries, revisions to the individual output indexes
were largely offsetting and had little net effect on total IP through 1997 (chart 1).
Production by Market Groups
The increases in total IP are now about the same in 1993 and 1994 as was shown previously, but are
faster in 1995–98 (table 3). The revised annual rate of growth has averaged 4.5 percent since 1994, 0.8 percentage
point higher than previously shown; the upward revision to growth from 1996 forward was close to 1 percentage
point per year. The index continues to show the same pattern of output growth since 1992: No quarter shows a
decrease in output, but gains were slower between the second quarter of 1995 and the first quarter of 1996 and
again beginning with the first quarter of 1998. The latest slowing reflects the effects of the economic turmoil in
Asia.
Among major market groups, the expansion of output was pervasive and substantial in 1996 and
1997, with strength concentrated in business equipment, consumer durables, and related materials; only the
production of defense and space equipment declined in these years. The production of nondurable consumer
products advanced relatively slowly; the solid growth in the consumer chemical products industry was offset by
declines in apparel production from 1995 to the present. In 1998, growth was slower in the production of
consumer goods, business equipment other than information processing equipment, and both durable and
nondurable materials. The output of information processing and related equipment continued to increase strongly,
and the output of construction supplies accelerated after having risen slowly in 1997. The output of energy
products and materials also picked up, on balance, a move reflecting the unusual weather patterns since last fall.
The output of defense and space equipment edged up after years of substantial declines.
——————————
1. The figures for August through October 1998 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly

statistical releases.

Production by Industry Groups
During the past two years, growth among the broad industry groups continued to be concentrated in
durable manufacturing, which advanced 11.0 percent in 1997 before easing to a 4.2 percent annual rate in the first
three quarters of 1998. The relatively rapid expansion in this sector has been supported over the years by the
sustained rapid increases in the output of computers, semiconductors and related electronic components, and
communications equipment. According to the revised index, the annual rate of growth of production in these
high-technology industries averaged nearly 40 percent from 1994 to 1997, substantially higher than previously
shown (table 4). The growth of output of other manufacturing industries, which revised little on balance over the
1994–97 period, advanced 3.0 percent over the four quarters of 1996 and 4.3 percent during 1997 before edging
down in 1998. In 1998, the economic troubles in Asia have, either through more imports or less exports, reduced
the domestic production of iron and steel, semiconductors, some chemicals, and other internationally traded goods.
However, the revised series for civilian aircraft shows stronger growth in the first half of 1998 than was shown
previously.
Capacity
The revisions to capacity and utilization reflect the new IP indexes, updated estimates of
manufacturing capital input, new information provided mainly by trade associations on physical capacity and
utilization for selected industries, and preliminary results of the 1997 Survey of Plant Capacity conducted by the
Bureau of the Census, which yielded utilization rates for manufacturing industries in the fourth quarter of 1997.
As was the case with the IP index, the rate of growth of manufacturing capacity was revised upward
from 1995 forward (table 5). The annual rate of capacity growth in manufacturing, which jumped to about
5-1/2 percent in 1995 and 1996, has slowed to 5 percent in the last two years. The rapid growth and upward
revisions were again concentrated in durable manufacturing, especially in the high-technology industries. The
capacity increase in these industries peaked at 46.3 percent over the course of 1996 and then decelerated to
34.8 percent in 1998. The rest of manufacturing increased capacity approximately 3 percent in 1995 and 1996 and
then gradually lowered the rate of capacity growth to an estimated 2.6 percent in 1998. The capacity expansion in
mining and utilities was considerably slower. In particular, the North American Electric Reliability Council
reduced its estimate of generating capacity for the winter of 1997 and projects increases in capacity that fall short
of probable increases in demand. Moreover, the drop in world demand for crude oil and its low price have led to a
sharp drop in work in domestic oil fields.
Capacity Utilization
In 1997 and 1998, the upward revisions to manufacturing capacity were relatively smaller than the
revisions to output; consequently, the rate of manufacturing capacity utilization—the ratio of output to
capacity—was revised up 0.3 percentage point in the fourth quarter of 1997 and 0.6 percentage point in the third
quarter of 1998 (table 6). The largest upward revision in utilization was in the transportation equipment industry.
Utilization in manufacturing in the third quarter of this year was 80.3 percent, a level 0.8 percentage point less than
the 1967–97 average. Although revised in opposite directions, the rates in both primary- and advanced-processing
industries fell more than 2 percentage points over the first three quarters of 1998. The utilization rate for
computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors declined to 76.9 percent. In contrast to the general
easing in manufacturing utilization rates, the rate rose further for petroleum products, to 96.8 percent. The low
price of crude oil pushed refining activity toward capacity limits.
The capacity utilization rate for mining was revised downward 2.2 percentage points in the third
quarter and was nearly a percentage point below its long-term average. Although utilization at gas utilities was
also revised downward to a below-average level, the rate of utilization in electric utilities was revised upward to
98 percent, its highest level since 1970. Strong summer demand for air conditioning due to high temperatures
forced some utilities to limit their supply of electricity to industrial companies.
2

ASPECTS OF THE REVISION
The revision incorporates the updating of the comprehensive annual data and of the revised monthly
source data used in the estimation of production, capacity, and utilization. More up-to-date results were obtained
from the 1996 Annual Survey of Manufactures, the 1997 Survey of Plant Capacity, other annual industry reports,
recent information on prices, and revised monthly source data on physical products and on labor and electricity
inputs. With the differences between the new annual and monthly source data in hand, productivity relationships
were revised and applied to the individual monthly source data to determine the final individual production
indexes. Along with updating the individual production series and seasonal factors, the annual value-added
weights used in aggregating the indexes to market and industry groups were also updated.
Changes to Individual Production Series
The industry and market structures of the index of industrial production now comprise 267 individual
series, up from 264 at the time of the last annual revision; they have been altered only a little for the period since
1992.
New indexes were developed to measure production in the electronic components industry.
Previously, two indexes—one for TV tubes and another for semiconductors and other components—covered SIC
367. Four new indexes now cover electronic components other than TV tubes: (1) semiconductors and related
devices. SIC 3674; (2) printed circuit boards, SIC 3672; (3) other electronic components, SIC 3675–8 and part of
3679; (4) printed circuit assemblies and loaded boards, part of SIC 3679. The new monthly quantity index for
semiconductors and related devices is constructed from detailed information on physical quantities and average
unit values for about 300 distinct devices. The estimates of U.S. production are primarily derived from the Census
Bureau’s Current Industrial Reports for Semiconductors and the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics monthly
survey, issued by the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association. Detailed information on MOS memory and
microprocessor chips are obtained from Dataquest, Inc. and MicroDesign Resources, respectively. The other three
series are derived from monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics data on worker hours and productivity trends
determined by annual data. The new series appear in the industry structure of the IP index in the subgroup,
Electronic Components, SIC 367, and in the market structure in Equipment Parts, a subgroup within durable
materials.
Other changes to individual series included revised IP series for coal, lawn and garden equipment, and
completed commercial aircraft. The coal series had been based directly on tonnage production. However, the
quality of U.S. coal varies by region. A ton of coal from Appalachia provides more heat expressed in British
thermal units than a ton of lignite from North Dakota, Texas, or Louisiana. The growth in coal production over the
past decade or so has been concentrated in subbituminous coal, which is extracted by surface mining at low cost in
Wyoming and West Montana and is relatively low in Btu content. Thus, the revised index of coal production
weights the tonnage produced in an area by the Btu content typical of a ton of coal mined in that region.
In the case of aircraft, the goal is for IP to reflect actual aircraft assembly operations. Previously, the
production indexes for aircraft were based on production worker hours and used productivity assumptions that
were developed from historical trends and estimates of planned commercial aircraft completions. Now, the
productivity estimates for commercial aircraft will be revised monthly as data on actual completions (deliveries
plus the change in stock) of commercial aircraft become available. The productivity assumption applied to
current-period production worker hours will be based on an approximate production measure equal to a
forward-looking ten-month moving average of actual completions augmented by future planned completions. The
estimates of military aircraft productivity were also improved, using annual information on planned completions.
Using data for production of lawn and garden tractors, mowers, rotary tillers, and snow throwers from
Stark’s Component Ledger, the staff developed a physical product series for lawn and garden equipment, SIC 3524.
The data represent output for the three-month period from the third month of a given calendar quarter through the
3

second month of the following quarter. Through 1992, the monthly indicator for this series remains production
worker hours.
Weights
The IP index is an annually weighted Fisher index.2 The annual value-added weights for the
aggregation of IP and capacity utilization, which are derived from annual estimates of industry value added, were
updated and extrapolated. The Annual Survey of Manufactures as well as revenue and expense data reported by
the Department of Energy and the American Gas Association provided industry value-added data for
manufacturing and utilities through 1996. The latest value-added data for mining comes from the Census of
Mineral Industries for 1992. The weights are expressed as unit value added. Generally, the unit value-added
measures track broad changes in corresponding producer prices. The weights required for aggregating IP in the
most recent period are (1) estimated from available data on producer prices through the most recent year and (2)
extrapolated for the following year, given the persistence of many relative price trends.
Revised Monthly Data
The monthly physical product data that are used to measure the monthly movements of many IP
indexes have been updated to capture data that became available after the closing of the regular four-month
reporting window. Monthly data on production-worker hours or sales of electric power in kilowatt-hours to
industry groups, along with estimates of trends in output per worker-hour or kilowatt-hour, are used to indicate the
monthly change in output for many individual IP indexes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmark of the
employment data for March 1997 was incorporated in this revision. Revised data on the sales of electricity to
industries since 1992 were incorporated as well. The monthly kilowatt-hour sales figures were benchmarked to
data on the annual use of electric power reported in the Annual Survey of Manufactures. Data through 1996 were
available for this revision; they resulted in an average upward revision in industrial use of electric power of
0.3 percentage point per year over the 1994 to 1996 period (table 8). Seasonal factors for the electric power series
have been reestimated using data through May 1998.3
This revision also introduced an improvement in the adjustment of monthly electric power data for
systematic influences of the weather. Electric power use by establishments in fifty three-digit SIC industries are
used as monthly indicators for production in forty-two component IP series. At times, unusual hot or cold
temperatures appeared to cause the use of electricity to rise or fall independently of their use in production. Staff
research indicated that the usual seasonal adjustment techniques did not adequately capture the influence of the
weather on electric power usage in thirteen industries, which are used to infer production for almost 16 percent of
IP. The new adjustment procedure uses data on heating and cooling degree days to model the effects of weather
more accurately in those industries.
Measurement of Capacity
To construct an individual capacity index, we first calculate preliminary, implied end-of-the-year
indexes of capacity by dividing a production index by a utilization rate obtained from a survey for that end-of-year
period. These ratios are expressed, like the indexes of industrial production, as percentages of production in 1992,
and they give the general level and trend of the capacity estimates.
The Census Bureau’s survey is the source of utilization rates for most manufacturing industries. The
available results of the Survey of Plant Capacity suggested that trends in manufacturing utilization rates were
roughly in line in the 1990s with those previously estimated by the Federal Reserve. However, dividing the
——————————
2. The aggregation procedures are described in Carol Corrado, Charles Gilbert, and Richard Raddock,

”Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Historical Revision and Recent Developments,” Federal Reserve
Bulletin, vol.83 (February 1997), pp.67–92.
3. Seasonal factors for the worker hours were based on data through October; factors for the monthly physical
product series were based on data through June or later in the summer.
4

industrial production indexes for high-technology industries, which were generally revised substantially upward,
by the Census utilization rates yielded a noticeable upward revision of capacity in those industries.
Once the preliminary implied capacity indexes are calculated, measures of physical capacity or of
capital input are used to estimate and extrapolate the annual movements of the capacity indexes. For most
manufacturing industries, physical measures of capacity are lacking; in these cases, the annual growth in the
capacity estimates is related to the growth in an industry’s capital input. The capital input measures are developed
principally from investment data reported in the Annual Survey of Manufactures; revised BEA estimates of
business investment and deflators by asset type through mid 1998 were also incorporated.

Data Availability and Publication Changes
These data were revised from 1992 forward. One new market group is being published with this
revision: Semiconductors, printed circuit boards, and other electronic components.
Files containing th revised data and the text and tables from this release are available on the
internet and through the Economic Bulletin Board of the Department of Commerce. Files containing all
of the historical data for these series can be found under “Statistics:Releases and historical data” at
http://www.federalreserve.gov, the Board’s World Wide Web site. For information about the Economic
Bulletin Board of the Department of Commerce, call 202-482-1986.
Diskettes containing either historical data (through 1985) or more recent data (1986 to those most
recently published in the G.17 statistical release) are available from Publications Services, Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551 (202-452-3245).
A document with printed tables of the revised estimates of series shown in the G.17 release is
also available upon written request to the Industrial Output Section, Mail Stop 82, Division of Research
and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551.

5

1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization
180

Ratio scale, 1992 output = 100
= Revised
= Previous

180

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

100
Capacity

90

90

80

80
Production

70

70

60

60

55

55

50

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Percent of Capacity

90

50

90

85

85

80

80

75

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

6

75

Table 1
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION: 1987–19981
TOTAL INDUSTRY
Seasonally adjusted
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual2

Industrial
Production,
Percent
Change
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

–.6
.1
.6
–.5
–.5
.2
.5
.2
.5
–.2
.5
.0

1.2
.3
–.8
.5
–.8
.6
.5
.5
–.1
1.3
.7
–.1

.4
.0
.9
.5
–.9
.7
.2
.7
.2
–.2
.4
.4

.4
.6
.2
–.6
.3
.7
.4
.4
–.1
1.2
.6
.5

.4
.1
–.6
.4
.8
.2
–.5
.7
.3
.9
.3
.4

.9
.1
–.2
.0
1.2
–.1
.2
.5
.4
.7
.5
–.9

.6
.7
–1.0
.0
.1
.8
.2
.3
–.3
.2
.7
–.1

.1
.5
.4
.2
.1
–.3
–.4
.5
1.1
.5
.6
1.6

–.1
–.4
–.2
.1
1.0
.4
1.0
.2
.3
.1
.5
–.4

1.4
.3
–.5
–.6
–.1
.6
.4
.7
.0
.1
.6
.0

.3
.8
.4
–1.3
–.1
.5
.5
.8
.2
.6
.5

.6
.5
.5
–.6
–.6
.1
.8
1.1
.0
.3
.3

4.2
3.2
3.8
2.0
–8.3
1.3
4.3
6.1
6.3
2.8
6.6
1.6

6.7
3.1
.5
.6
1.5
6.1
1.5
7.1
1.3
9.6
6.0
2.8

5.6
3.9
–4.4
1.0
6.2
2.7
1.2
5.2
3.5
5.5
7.2
1.2

7.1
3.6
–.1
–5.8
1.1
4.6
6.4
7.6
3.0
3.5
6.6

4.6
4.5
1.8
–.2
–2.0
3.1
3.5
5.4
4.9
4.5
6.0

Industrial
Production
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

90.2
95.9
99.8
98.6
96.7
97.7
102.3
105.9
113.4
115.5
123.0
130.3

91.2
96.2
99.0
99.1
95.9
98.2
102.7
106.4
113.4
117.0
123.9
130.2

91.6
96.3
100.0
99.6
95.0
98.9
102.9
107.2
113.6
116.8
124.4
130.7

92.0
96.8
100.2
99.0
95.4
99.6
103.3
107.6
113.4
118.2
125.1
131.3

92.4
96.9
99.6
99.4
96.1
99.9
102.7
108.4
113.8
119.2
125.5
131.9

93.2
97.0
99.4
99.3
97.2
99.7
103.0
108.9
114.3
120.0
126.1
130.6

93.7
97.6
98.4
99.3
97.3
100.5
103.2
109.3
113.9
120.3
127.0
130.5

93.8
98.1
98.8
99.5
97.4
100.2
102.8
109.8
115.1
120.9
127.8
132.5

93.7
97.8
98.6
99.6
98.4
100.6
103.9
110.0
115.4
121.1
128.5
132.0

95.0
98.0
98.2
99.1
98.3
101.2
104.3
110.8
115.5
121.2
129.3
132.0

95.3
98.8
98.6
97.7
98.1
101.7
104.8
111.6
115.7
121.9
129.9

95.9
99.3
99.0
97.2
97.5
101.8
105.7
112.9
115.8
122.3
130.3

91.0
96.1
99.6
99.1
95.9
98.3
102.6
106.5
113.5
116.5
123.7
130.4

92.5
96.9
99.7
99.2
96.2
99.8
103.0
108.3
113.8
119.2
125.6
131.3

93.8
97.8
98.6
99.5
97.7
100.4
103.3
109.7
114.8
120.8
127.8
131.7

95.4
98.7
98.6
98.0
98.0
101.5
104.9
111.7
115.7
121.8
129.8

93.2
97.4
99.1
98.9
97.0
100.0
103.5
109.1
114.4
119.5
126.8

Capacity
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

114.0
115.3
116.8
119.2
121.4
123.4
125.9
128.9
133.9
141.4
149.4
157.0

114.1
115.5
117.0
119.3
121.6
123.6
126.2
129.3
134.5
142.1
150.1
157.6

114.2
115.6
117.2
119.5
121.7
123.8
126.4
129.7
135.1
142.8
150.7
158.3

114.3
115.7
117.4
119.7
121.9
124.0
126.6
130.1
135.7
143.4
151.3
158.9

114.4
115.8
117.6
119.9
122.1
124.2
126.9
130.5
136.4
144.1
152.0
159.6

114.5
115.9
117.8
120.1
122.2
124.5
127.1
130.9
137.0
144.8
152.6
160.3

114.6
116.0
118.0
120.2
122.4
124.7
127.4
131.3
137.6
145.5
153.2
160.9

114.7
116.2
118.2
120.4
122.6
124.9
127.6
131.7
138.2
146.1
153.8
161.5

114.9
116.3
118.4
120.6
122.7
125.1
127.8
132.1
138.8
146.8
154.4
162.2

115.0
116.4
118.6
120.8
122.9
125.3
128.1
132.6
139.5
147.4
155.0
162.8

115.1
116.5
118.8
121.0
123.0
125.5
128.3
133.0
140.1
148.1
155.7

115.2
116.7
119.0
121.2
123.2
125.7
128.6
133.4
140.8
148.8
156.3

114.1
115.5
117.0
119.3
121.6
123.6
126.2
129.3
134.5
142.1
150.1
157.6

114.4
115.8
117.6
119.9
122.1
124.2
126.9
130.5
136.4
144.1
152.0
159.6

114.7
116.2
118.2
120.4
122.6
124.9
127.6
131.7
138.2
146.1
153.8
161.5

115.1
116.5
118.8
121.0
123.0
125.5
128.3
133.0
140.1
148.1
155.7

114.6
116.0
117.9
120.2
122.3
124.5
127.2
131.1
137.3
145.1
152.9

79.1
83.2
85.4
82.7
79.6
79.2
81.2
82.1
84.7
81.7
82.3
83.0

80.0
83.4
84.6
83.0
78.9
79.5
81.4
82.3
84.3
82.4
82.6
82.6

80.2
83.3
85.3
83.3
78.1
79.9
81.4
82.6
84.1
81.8
82.5
82.6

80.5
83.7
85.3
82.7
78.2
80.3
81.5
82.7
83.5
82.4
82.7
82.6

80.7
83.7
84.7
82.9
78.7
80.4
81.0
83.1
83.4
82.7
82.6
82.6

81.4
83.6
84.4
82.7
79.6
80.1
81.0
83.2
83.4
82.9
82.6
81.5

81.8
84.1
83.4
82.6
79.5
80.6
81.0
83.2
82.7
82.7
82.9
81.1

81.8
84.5
83.6
82.6
79.5
80.2
80.6
83.4
83.3
82.8
83.1
82.0

81.6
84.1
83.3
82.6
80.2
80.4
81.3
83.3
83.1
82.5
83.2
81.4

82.6
84.2
82.8
82.0
80.0
80.8
81.4
83.5
82.8
82.2
83.4
81.1

82.8
84.8
83.0
80.8
79.8
81.0
81.7
83.9
82.6
82.3
83.4

83.2
85.1
83.2
80.2
79.2
81.0
82.2
84.6
82.3
82.2
83.4

79.8
83.3
85.1
83.0
78.9
79.5
81.3
82.4
84.3
82.0
82.5
82.7

80.8
83.7
84.8
82.8
78.8
80.3
81.2
83.0
83.5
82.7
82.6
82.3

81.7
84.2
83.4
82.6
79.7
80.4
81.0
83.3
83.1
82.7
83.1
81.5

82.9
84.7
83.0
81.0
79.6
80.9
81.8
84.0
82.6
82.2
83.4

81.3
84.0
84.1
82.3
79.3
80.3
81.3
83.2
83.4
82.4
82.9

Year

Utilization
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

1. Estimates from August 1998 through October 1998 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases.
2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes.

7

Table 2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION: 1987–19981
MANUFACTURING
Seasonally adjusted
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual2

Industrial
Production,
Percent
Change
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

–.8
–.2
.9
–.2
–.9
.3
.9
.1
.6
–.3
.5
.1

1.6
.4
–1.2
.9
–.7
.7
.2
.6
–.2
1.3
.9
–.1

.2
–.1
.8
.3
–1.1
.8
.2
.9
.2
–.3
.5
.3

.5
1.0
.1
–.8
.3
.6
.6
.7
–.1
1.4
.6
.6

.3
–.1
–.7
.4
.7
.4
–.4
.8
.1
1.0
.3
.3

1.0
.0
.0
–.1
1.4
.0
.0
.2
.5
.8
.7
–1.2

.7
.7
–1.1
.0
.2
.7
.2
.5
–.5
.5
.7
–.1

–.2
.3
.3
.3
.2
–.2
–.5
.6
.9
.5
.8
1.7

.1
.2
–.3
–.1
1.1
.3
1.2
.3
.7
.2
.4
–.5

1.3
.2
–.6
–.6
–.1
.5
.4
.8
.1
.0
.6
.4

.5
.9
.4
–1.3
–.2
.6
.5
.9
.1
.7
.8

.6
.6
.1
–.6
–.5
–.1
.9
1.1
.1
.4
.3

5.0
2.3
4.3
2.9
–9.7
2.7
4.9
6.3
6.7
2.1
7.2
2.4

7.0
4.1
–.7
–.1
1.2
6.8
2.1
8.8
1.1
10.6
6.6
2.5

5.5
3.7
–4.5
.8
7.8
3.4
.5
5.8
2.9
7.0
7.7
.7

7.6
5.2
–1.4
–6.3
1.7
4.0
6.9
9.2
3.8
3.9
7.5

5.3
4.7
1.9
–.5
–2.4
4.0
3.7
6.0
5.4
4.7
6.8

Industrial
Production
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

89.6
95.4
100.3
98.1
95.8
97.4
102.6
106.1
115.0
116.9
125.3
133.8

91.0
95.8
99.1
99.0
95.1
98.1
102.8
106.7
114.8
118.4
126.4
133.7

91.2
95.7
99.9
99.3
94.1
98.9
103.0
107.6
115.1
118.1
127.0
134.1

91.6
96.7
100.0
98.6
94.4
99.5
103.6
108.4
115.0
119.7
127.7
134.9

91.9
96.6
99.4
99.0
95.0
99.9
103.2
109.3
115.1
120.9
128.1
135.4

92.8
96.6
99.4
98.9
96.3
99.9
103.2
109.5
115.7
121.8
129.0
133.7

93.4
97.3
98.3
98.8
96.6
100.6
103.4
110.1
115.1
122.4
129.8
133.6

93.3
97.5
98.7
99.1
96.8
100.4
102.9
110.7
116.2
123.0
130.8
135.9

93.4
97.7
98.4
99.0
97.8
100.7
104.1
111.1
117.0
123.3
131.4
135.3

94.6
97.9
97.8
98.4
97.8
101.2
104.5
112.0
117.1
123.3
132.2
135.7

95.1
98.9
98.2
97.2
97.6
101.8
105.1
113.0
117.2
124.2
133.3

95.6
99.4
98.3
96.6
97.1
101.7
106.0
114.3
117.3
124.7
133.7

90.6
95.6
99.8
98.8
95.0
98.1
102.8
106.8
115.0
117.8
126.2
133.8

92.1
96.6
99.6
98.8
95.2
99.7
103.3
109.1
115.3
120.8
128.3
134.7

93.4
97.5
98.5
99.0
97.0
100.6
103.5
110.7
116.1
122.9
130.7
134.9

95.1
98.7
98.1
97.4
97.5
101.6
105.2
113.1
117.2
124.1
133.1

92.8
97.1
99.0
98.5
96.2
100.0
103.7
109.9
115.9
121.4
129.7

Capacity
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

113.2
115.2
117.0
119.9
122.4
124.5
127.4
130.7
136.3
144.9
154.1
162.8

113.4
115.3
117.3
120.1
122.6
124.8
127.6
131.1
137.0
145.7
154.8
163.5

113.6
115.4
117.5
120.3
122.8
125.0
127.9
131.6
137.7
146.4
155.5
164.3

113.8
115.6
117.8
120.5
123.0
125.2
128.2
132.0
138.4
147.2
156.2
165.1

113.9
115.7
118.0
120.7
123.1
125.5
128.4
132.5
139.1
148.0
157.0
165.8

114.1
115.8
118.3
120.9
123.3
125.7
128.7
132.9
139.8
148.8
157.8
166.6

114.2
116.0
118.5
121.1
123.5
125.9
129.0
133.4
140.5
149.5
158.4
167.3

114.4
116.1
118.7
121.3
123.7
126.2
129.3
133.8
141.2
150.3
159.1
168.1

114.6
116.3
119.0
121.5
123.8
126.4
129.5
134.3
141.9
151.0
159.9
168.8

114.7
116.5
119.2
121.7
124.0
126.6
129.8
134.8
142.6
151.8
160.6
169.5

114.9
116.6
119.5
122.0
124.2
126.9
130.1
135.2
143.4
152.5
161.3

115.0
116.8
119.7
122.2
124.3
127.1
130.3
135.7
144.2
153.3
162.1

113.4
115.3
117.3
120.1
122.6
124.8
127.6
131.1
137.0
145.7
154.8
163.5

113.9
115.7
118.0
120.7
123.1
125.5
128.4
132.5
139.1
148.0
157.0
165.8

114.4
116.1
118.7
121.3
123.7
126.2
129.3
133.8
141.2
150.3
159.1
168.1

114.9
116.6
119.5
122.0
124.2
126.9
130.1
135.2
143.4
152.5
161.3

114.1
115.9
118.4
121.0
123.4
125.8
128.8
133.2
140.2
149.1
158.1

79.1
82.9
85.7
81.8
78.2
78.2
80.5
81.2
84.4
80.7
81.3
82.2

80.2
83.1
84.5
82.5
77.5
78.6
80.6
81.4
83.8
81.3
81.7
81.8

80.3
82.9
85.0
82.6
76.6
79.1
80.5
81.8
83.6
80.6
81.7
81.6

80.6
83.7
85.0
81.8
76.8
79.4
80.8
82.2
83.1
81.3
81.7
81.7

80.7
83.5
84.2
82.0
77.1
79.6
80.4
82.5
82.8
81.7
81.6
81.6

81.4
83.4
84.1
81.8
78.1
79.5
80.1
82.4
82.7
81.9
81.7
80.2

81.8
83.8
83.0
81.6
78.2
79.9
80.1
82.6
81.9
81.9
81.9
79.8

81.5
84.0
83.1
81.7
78.2
79.6
79.6
82.8
82.3
81.8
82.2
80.9

81.5
84.0
82.7
81.5
79.0
79.7
80.4
82.7
82.4
81.6
82.2
80.1

82.5
84.1
82.1
80.9
78.9
79.9
80.5
83.1
82.1
81.2
82.3
80.1

82.8
84.8
82.2
79.7
78.6
80.2
80.8
83.6
81.7
81.4
82.6

83.1
85.1
82.1
79.0
78.1
80.0
81.4
84.2
81.3
81.3
82.5

79.9
83.0
85.1
82.3
77.5
78.6
80.5
81.5
83.9
80.9
81.6
81.8

80.9
83.5
84.4
81.9
77.3
79.5
80.4
82.4
82.9
81.6
81.7
81.2

81.6
83.9
82.9
81.6
78.5
79.7
80.0
82.7
82.2
81.8
82.1
80.3

82.8
84.7
82.1
79.9
78.5
80.1
80.9
83.6
81.7
81.3
82.5

81.3
83.8
83.6
81.4
77.9
79.5
80.5
82.5
82.7
81.4
82.0

Year

Utilization
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998

1. Estimates from August 1998 through October 1998 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases.
2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes.

8

Table 3
RATES OF GROWTH IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, BY MAJOR MARKET GROUPS, 1994–19981
Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)

Revised growth rate
(percent)
Item

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Total index

6.5

3.5

5.3

6.6

1.9

.0

.3

1.1

.9

.9

Products, total
Final products

4.7
4.8

2.1
2.6

4.2
4.4

5.0
5.6

2.5
2.4

.1
.2

.3
.3

.3
.4

.3
.5

1.4
1.7

Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Autos and trucks
Autos
Trucks
Auto parts and allied goods
Other durable goods
Appliances and electronics
Appliances and air cond.
Home electronics
Carpeting and furniture
Miscellaneous
Nondurable
Nonenergy
Foods and tobacco
Clothing
Chemical products
Paper products
Energy products
Fuels
Utilities

4.3
6.5
5.4
5.2
5.8
3.0
5.6
7.4
14.4
2.7
28.1
5.8
3.5
3.7
4.9
6.6
4.1
5.3
–.5
–4.2
–2.2
–5.1

1.3
.3
–2.4
–4.7
–7.3
1.3
1.8
2.5
9.0
–2.0
20.1
–3.0
1.1
1.6
.9
–.3
–3.5
5.1
2.1
6.3
1.4
8.6

2.2
2.3
2.0
2.5
–3.8
8.1
1.0
2.6
8.9
–.2
18.3
3.0
–1.7
2.2
2.1
1.4
–.2
4.9
1.9
2.3
3.5
1.8

2.7
6.5
9.3
12.3
3.4
15.7
4.7
4.3
11.8
–.5
24.2
2.4
.9
1.7
1.7
1.3
–2.0
2.9
3.8
1.6
1.8
1.5

–.4
.9
–6.6
–14.1
–7.0
–17.0
6.7
7.1
16.6
9.5
23.4
3.2
3.6
–.7
–1.7
–.8
–4.4
–1.3
–3.7
6.5
2.1
8.7

–.1
–.3
–.6
–1.0
–.8
–1.4
.0
–.1
.9
–.6
2.9
.3
–.8
–.1
–.1
–.2
–.2
.1
–.1
–.1
.1
–.1

–.4
–.3
–.4
–.5
–.4
–.3
–.1
–.3
.1
–4.1
4.7
–1.6
.0
–.4
–.4
–.7
1.9
–.2
–1.6
.0
.1
–.2

–.2
–1.1
.4
.9
.0
.2
–.3
–2.2
1.0
–2.1
3.0
–2.4
–4.2
.1
.2
–.4
3.9
.2
–.5
–.4
.2
–.8

–.1
.5
.6
1.2
–.3
–.2
–.3
.4
4.1
.4
5.2
–.1
–1.9
–.3
–.3
–.3
–.6
–1.2
1.0
–.4
.0
–.4

.5
1.5
–.9
–1.0
–.3
–.2
–.4
3.7
–.5
–1.4
–1.0
2.4
5.8
.3
.1
–.2
.2
.0
1.3
2.3
–1.1
4.0

Equipment, total
Business equipment
Information processing & related
Computer and office
Industrial
Transit
Autos and trucks
Other
Defense and space equipment
Oil and gas well drilling
Manufactured homes

5.8
9.4
13.4
29.5
10.0
1.5
8.4
5.9
–6.7
–6.7
8.6

4.6
7.0
14.9
44.7
8.5
–9.4
–6.0
1.9
–7.2
2.4
8.7

8.0
9.8
16.5
41.9
1.2
14.3
–3.0
5.5
–1.0
7.6
–.7

10.4
13.1
16.2
43.7
5.2
22.8
12.3
10.4
–3.9
9.4
–.7

6.6
9.0
15.3
58.1
3.3
9.9
–9.8
1.0
.6
–19.8
6.7

.7
.8
–.1
–.3
.1
4.1
5.7
–.2
.9
.3
1.0

1.5
1.6
1.9
1.7
.8
3.3
1.6
.1
1.5
.4
2.0

1.2
1.5
4.7
4.5
1.2
–4.9
–2.9
.7
.5
.6
.2

1.6
2.3
4.0
9.2
–.5
5.2
3.8
.9
–1.3
.2
.5

3.4
4.3
6.0
10.5
.3
7.5
–1.4
3.3
–.2
–2.0
–5.0

4.3
7.2
2.5

.5
–.3
1.1

3.8
5.9
2.4

3.2
2.4
3.8

2.8
5.2
1.3

–.1
.0
–.2

.0
.2
–.2

.0
.1
.0

–.4
.2
–.8

.6
–.9
1.4

9.3

5.7

6.9

9.0

1.0

–.3

.3

2.2

1.7

.2

13.5
10.3
21.4

11.0
3.6
26.3

10.2
1.2
22.7

13.3
7.3
26.4

1.8
–4.8
9.3

–.4
.2
–1.3

.6
1.3
.5

3.5
1.1
7.8

2.1
.4
4.8

.6
.0
1.0

53.2
8.9
6.9
5.9
8.9
5.1
5.7
5.6
2.0
3.3
–.3

65.4
2.3
1.6
–2.5
–7.2
–2.8
–.8
–3.0
.6
.3
1.1

49.4
3.9
3.9
3.6
2.7
4.3
5.1
.5
.8
–.7
3.6

53.3
5.0
4.3
4.5
3.2
4.7
5.0
3.8
.3
.2
.5

18.3
–1.8
–4.4
–2.0
–3.8
–1.5
–3.1
.5
2.1
1.9
2.5

n.a.
–.1
–.2
–.2
–.2
–.1
–.4
–.2
–.1
.0
–.1

n.a.
.2
.2
–.1
.1
1.1
–.6
–.2
–.2
–.2
–.1

n.a.
.8
1.3
–.1
1.8
1.4
–1.0
–.1
.3
.3
.6

n.a.
.4
–.4
1.0
–.7
1.5
1.7
.0
–.8
–.2
–1.8

n.a.
.3
–.4
.2
1.9
–.4
–.5
1.2
–.7
–1.4
.7

Total excluding:
Computers

6.1

2.9

4.6

5.9

.8

.0

.2

.9

.6

.6

Business equipment excluding:
Computer and office equipment

7.7

3.8

6.8

10.5

4.7

.8

1.5

1.1

1.5

3.1

Intermediate products
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials
Durable
Consumer parts
Equipment parts
Semiconductors, printed circuit
boards, and oth. elec. comps.
Other
Basic metals
Nondurable
Textile
Paper
Chemical
Other
Energy
Primary
Converted fuel
SPECIAL AGGREGATES

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 1998, the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the third
quarter of 1998 and annualized.

9

Table 4
RATES OF GROWTH IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS, 1994–19981

Item

SIC

1994

Revised growth rate
(percent)
1995
1996
1997

1998

1994

Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)
1995
1996
1997

1998

Total index

6.5

3.5

5.3

6.6

1.9

.0

.2

1.1

.8

.9

Manufacturing

7.5

3.6

5.9

7.3

1.9

–.1

.3

1.2

1.0

1.1

Primary processing
Advanced processing

6.5
8.0

–.3
5.5

4.1
6.7

3.9
8.8

–.6
3.0

–.1
.0

.1
.4

.6
1.5

.4
1.2

–.1
1.7

Durable
Lumber and products
24
Furniture and fixtures
25
Stone, clay, and glass products 32

9.9
5.3
5.6
5.2

6.9
.8
–.8
2.7

8.6
1.8
4.7
6.3

11.1
3.1
3.3
2.6

4.2
4.0
1.3
2.6

.0
.3
.3
–.4

.7
–.4
–1.2
1.2

2.1
–1.0
–2.6
2.5

1.6
1.0
–.3
–2.0

1.8
–.7
3.6
2.5

Primary metals
33
Iron and steel
331,2
Raw steel
Nonferrous
333–6,9
Fabricated metal products
34
Industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
3672–9

8.7
7.7
6.2
10.1
8.9

–.2
–.3
.7
–.1
1.2

4.6
3.6
–1.7
5.9
4.1

4.9
5.0
7.3
4.9
4.5

–6.2
–9.2
–2.6
–2.5
–.2

–.2
–.1
.0
–.3
–.1

.2
.6
.0
–.3
.0

1.1
1.4
.0
1.0
.9

–.7
–.7
.0
–.6
.8

–.8
–.8
.0
–.8
.9

15.3
30.8
25.4

14.1
41.6
25.9

9.8
42.9
22.2

13.4
43.6
24.2

15.0
56.0
8.3

.0
.3
–1.8

1.7
3.8
.2

2.2
6.4
9.6

2.1
7.3
5.7

4.2
5.7
.7

48.8

58.0

44.6

48.6

16.0

–6.2

–1.3

19.1

8.8

–1.4

372–6,9
38
39

2.1
8.9
4.2
–6.7
1.9
3.8

–4.2
–.6
–5.1
–9.7
4.2
2.5

4.9
–1.4
1.9
15.3
3.0
2.7

13.1
12.8
10.9
13.4
3.6
1.4

–1.2
–9.6
–12.9
10.6
1.4
–1.4

.8
1.1
–.9
.4
1.2
–.1

1.1
1.0
–.6
1.1
2.3
–.8

–.6
.0
.9
–1.7
–1.2
–2.5

.9
.9
1.3
.7
.4
–3.4

2.2
–.4
–1.2
5.8
.8
–.5

20
21
22
23
26

4.8
2.3
43.6
5.9
6.4
4.5

–.3
.5
–4.4
–4.6
–3.6
–2.5

2.6
1.1
–.1
1.9
–.9
3.0

2.6
1.9
–.8
3.5
–2.0
4.2

–1.0
–.2
–5.3
–.8
–4.4
–.9

–.1
–.1
.1
–.1
–.2
–.1

–.2
–1.1
.8
.5
.9
.3

.1
–.6
–2.5
1.8
2.5
.7

.0
.1
–2.7
–.6
–.1
1.1

.2
.4
–3.8
1.6
–.4
–.7

27
28
29
30
31

1.1
4.6
–.8
9.6
–8.4

–.2
1.6
.7
.2
–5.6

1.9
4.9
3.7
4.0
1.3

3.6
3.1
2.0
4.3
–8.7

–1.9
–1.8
3.3
2.3
–7.6

–.1
–.1
.2
.0
.5

–.2
–.5
.2
.2
5.4

.3
–.5
.4
.6
5.3

–.4
.2
–.2
.5
–1.4

3.1
–.5
–2.6
.0
2.7

10
12
13
14

.8
–3.2
8.9
–1.2
6.7

–.9
4.6
–1.4
–1.4
–1.1

2.0
4.6
4.3
1.0
4.8

2.1
4.4
2.2
1.8
3.4

–2.3
–5.4
5.9
–4.8
4.5

–.1
–.1
–.3
.0
–.2

–.1
.1
–1.3
.1
.1

.3
1.3
1.8
.1
–.6

.0
1.7
–2.5
–.1
2.8

–2.1
.6
3.2
–3.3
–5.5

491,3pt
492,3pt

–.4
1.7
–8.0

6.3
5.2
10.8

1.1
1.0
1.8

1.9
2.6
–1.3

6.2
7.6
–.3

–.1
.0
–.3

–.1
–.1
.0

–.4
.0
–1.3

–.5
–.2
–2.1

1.7
1.4
1.7

36.6

42.0

36.7

38.5

24.0

–2.6

1.4

13.9

7.9

3.7

Manufacturing ex. computers,
communications eq., and
semiconductors

5.4

.5

3.0

4.3

–.3

.1

.2

.0

.1

.7

Manufacturingexcluding
motor vehicles and parts

7.4

3.9

6.4

6.9

2.6

–.1

.3

1.3

.9

1.2

Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts
Autos and light trucks
Aerospace and misc.
Instruments
Miscellaneous

37
371

Nondurable
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas
SPECIAL AGGREGATES

Computers, communications eq., and
semiconductors

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 1998, the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the third
quarter of 1998 and annualized.
Note—Primary processing manufacturing includes textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and
fertilizers, petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metals, and stone, clay, and glass
products. Advanced processing manufacturing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products and
other agricultural chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, industrial and commercial machinery and computer equipment, electrical
machinery, transportation equipment, instruments, and miscellaneous manufactures.

10

Table 5
RATES OF GROWTH IN CAPACITY, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS, 1994–19981

Item

SIC

1994

Revised growth rate
(percent)
1995
1996
1997

1998

1994

Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)
1995
1996
1997

1998

Total index

3.6

5.4

5.7

5.1

5.0

–.1

.5

1.2

.4

.6

Manufacturing

4.0

6.0

6.4

5.8

5.6

–.1

.5

1.2

.5

.7

Primary processing
Advanced processing

2.4
4.8

3.3
7.4

3.8
7.4

3.9
6.4

3.0
6.6

.1
–.2

.4
.6

.5
1.5

.6
.2

–.1
.9

Durable
Lumber and products
24
Furniture and fixtures
25
Stone, clay, and glass products 32

5.8
3.1
2.0
–.1

9.5
3.0
2.5
5.7

9.7
3.9
5.9
4.9

8.6
4.2
5.1
2.9

7.9
2.9
1.9
.6

–.1
.2
–.5
–.9

1.1
–.8
–1.4
3.4

2.2
–.5
.1
1.6

.6
.2
.2
–.8

.3
1.4
–.6
–2.7

Primary metals
33
Iron and steel
331,2
Raw steel
Nonferrous
333–6,9
Fabricated metal products
34
Industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
3672–9

3.0
2.8
.9
3.2
3.0

2.7
1.9
3.1
3.5
5.2

3.6
5.0
2.8
2.0
5.5

3.4
3.9
5.8
2.8
6.5

3.4
5.1
6.8
1.4
4.3

.6
.0
.0
1.3
.4

.2
.3
.0
.0
1.3

.0
.7
.0
–.8
.8

–.4
.1
.0
–.8
1.5

–1.5
–.1
1.2
–3.1
–.3

9.2
21.7
16.3

11.5
34.7
28.8

13.0
46.1
30.3

12.1
43.2
23.6

14.6
59.4
18.4

.9
–.2
–2.0

.7
3.5
2.9

1.7
6.2
11.0

.4
2.2
4.4

4.1
17.8
.6

31.6

58.7

56.6

46.7

33.4

–9.6

2.7

24.8

9.9

–1.7

372–6,9
38
39

2.7
5.5
3.7
–.6
1.6
1.5

4.3
8.4
4.5
–.4
2.6
1.7

2.5
3.9
–.5
.5
.1
1.9

2.0
3.2
.8
.2
1.3
1.9

2.1
2.5
2.7
1.4
2.4
1.9

–.5
–1.5
–1.5
.5
1.5
–.4

.5
.3
–1.4
.9
2.2
–1.1

.1
–.8
–1.7
1.3
–.6
–1.3

–1.4
–1.4
–1.5
–1.6
–.5
–1.4

–1.6
–1.8
.2
–1.3
–.9
–1.6

20
22
23
26

1.9
1.7
3.4
1.3
1.7

2.1
2.2
2.0
2.3
2.4

2.3
2.0
2.2
.7
2.9

2.0
1.2
4.6
1.8
2.4

2.6
2.8
.9
–.7
3.0

–.1
–.5
–.3
–.1
.3

–.2
–.7
–1.2
.1
.1

–.1
–.5
.1
.4
.5

–.2
–1.2
2.7
1.8
.6

.8
.9
–.1
.0
.9

27
28
29
30
31

.6
2.5
1.9
4.7
–1.5

.7
2.8
–.2
4.4
3.4

.3
3.5
.8
4.9
3.5

.1
2.7
1.3
5.1
–3.3

3.1
2.5
1.1
4.8
–.4

–.1
–.2
.0
.3
.7

.0
.0
.0
–.6
5.9

–.6
–.1
.5
.5
5.9

–.7
–.6
–.4
.9
–.6

2.2
.2
–1.9
1.5
4.5

10
12
13
14

.9
–1.5
3.3
.3
2.4

–.4
.7
.6
–1.0
2.4

.4
1.6
1.7
–.2
3.5

1.5
2.9
1.7
1.0
4.4

.9
.8
1.7
.4
4.0

–.1
.0
–.8
.0
.0

.1
–.2
.9
.0
–.1

.2
.9
.7
.1
.2

.8
2.2
.0
.8
.4

–.1
–.7
.0
–.1
.5

491,3pt
492,3pt

1.2
1.0
.4

1.7
2.2
.5

1.9
1.9
2.1

.3
–.1
1.9

.7
.6
1.5

–.1
.0
.0

–.3
–.4
.0

.4
.3
.0

–1.1
–1.5
.0

–.2
–.4
–.1

23.2

41.0

46.3

37.4

34.8

–4.2

3.2

16.2

7.0

5.2

2.5

3.2

2.9

2.7

2.6

.2

.3

.0

–.4

–.1

Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts
Autos and light trucks
Aerospace and misc.
Instruments
Miscellaneous

37
371

Nondurable
Foods
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas
SPECIAL AGGREGATES

Computers, communications eq., and
semiconductors
Manufacturing ex. computers,
communications eq., and
semiconductors

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading.
Note—Primary processing manufacturing includes textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and
fertilizers, petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metals, and stone, clay, and glass
products. Advanced processing manufacturing includes foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products and
other agricultural chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, industrial and commercial machinery and computer equipment, electrical
machinery, transportation equipment, instruments, and miscellaneous manufactures.

11

Table 6
REVISED AND EARLIER CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATES, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS
Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted
Difference between
revised and earlier rates
(percentage points)

Revised rate
19671997
Ave.

19881989
High

19901991
Low

1996
Q4

1997
Q4

1998
Q3

1996
Q4

1997
Q4

1998
Q3

Total index

82.1

85.4

78.1

82.2

83.4

81.5

–.1

.2

.4

Manufacturing

Item

SIC

81.1

85.7

76.6

81.3

82.5

80.3

–.1

.3

.6

Primary processing
Advanced processing

82.3
80.5

88.9
84.2

77.7
76.1

85.4
79.6

85.3
81.4

83.0
79.3

–.5
.2

–.7
1.0

–.7
1.5

Durable
Lumber and products
24
Furniture and fixtures
25
Stone, clay, and glass products 32

79.4
82.5
81.4
78.2

84.6
93.6
86.6
83.5

73.1
75.5
72.5
69.7

80.2
82.1
79.2
80.9

82.1
81.3
77.9
80.7

79.9
81.9
77.5
81.8

–.2
–.6
–1.8
–.5

.5
.1
–2.1
–1.4

1.4
–1.2
.4
1.7

Primary metals
33
Iron and steel
331,2
Raw steel
Nonferrous
333–6,9
Fabricated metal products
34
Industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
3672–9

81.1
81.1
80.9
81.3
78.0

92.7
95.2
92.7
89.3
82.0

73.7
71.8
71.5
74.2
71.9

90.7
90.9
88.8
90.5
80.3

92.0
91.8
90.0
92.3
78.8

85.5
82.3
84.0
89.7
76.2

–.1
.7
.1
–1.0
–.3

–.3
.0
.1
–.9
–.8

.0
–.5
–.6
.7
–.1

81.3
81.2
81.1

85.4
86.9
84.0

72.3
66.9
75.0

84.4
83.3
81.3

85.4
83.5
81.7

85.7
82.5
76.2

–.4
.8
–.7

.9
3.7
.2

1.1
–.9
.1

80.0

81.1

75.6

82.7

83.8

75.0

–.6

–1.3

–1.4

Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts
Autos and light trucks1
Aerospace and misc.
Instruments
Miscellaneous

37
371

75.9
76.8

372–6,9
38
39

75.0
81.7
75.6

85.8
89.1
92.3
87.3
81.4
79.0

68.5
55.9
53.3
79.2
77.2
71.7

72.2
74.4
79.6
69.3
79.1
80.1

80.0
81.3
87.6
78.4
80.8
79.7

78.1
74.0
77.3
83.7
80.3
77.7

.3
2.3
3.0
–2.2
–.4
.9

2.0
4.2
5.5
–.7
.3
–.7

4.1
4.5
4.1
3.4
1.2
.0

20
22
23
26

83.4
83.0
85.7
81.1
89.2

87.3
85.4
90.4
85.1
93.5

80.7
82.7
77.7
75.5
85.0

82.8
81.6
85.5
79.1
87.8

83.3
82.1
84.7
76.2
89.3

81.1
80.3
83.5
73.9
86.8

.2
.7
3.0
2.2
–.7

.4
1.6
.4
.8
–.3

.1
1.4
1.4
.5
–1.3

27
28
29
30
31

85.8
79.5
86.6
84.5
80.8

91.7
86.2
88.5
89.6
83.3

79.6
79.3
85.1
77.4
76.1

82.1
79.5
94.5
86.2
70.9

85.1
79.8
95.2
85.5
66.9

82.1
77.2
96.8
84.0
63.4

.7
–.2
.1
–1.7
–.4

1.0
.4
.3
–2.1
–1.0

1.7
.0
–.3
–3.0
–1.5

10
12
13
14

87.5
79.1
86.6
88.6
84.8

88.0
89.4
91.5
88.2
89.0

87.0
79.9
83.4
88.7
79.4

88.1
90.8
84.2
88.9
86.3

88.6
92.2
84.5
89.6
85.5

86.6
87.8
87.1
86.1
85.8

–.2
.4
–2.0
.2
–.5

–.9
–.1
–4.2
–.6
1.5

–2.2
.7
–2.3
–2.8
–2.1

491,3pt
492,3pt

87.3
89.2
82.4

92.6
95.0
85.0

83.4
87.1
67.1

89.4
90.8
83.7

90.8
93.2
81.1

94.5
98.0
80.0

–.6
–.1
–1.6

–.1
1.0
–3.3

1.3
2.3
–2.1

Computers, communications eq., and
semiconductors

80.3

81.9

72.4

81.4

82.0

76.9

.2

.7

.2

Manufacturing ex. computers,
communications eq., and
semiconductors

81.2

86.1

76.8

81.3

82.6

80.8

–.1

.3

.8

Nondurable
Foods
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas
SPECIAL AGGREGATES

1. Series begins in 1977.
Note—The “high” column refers to periods in which utilization generally peaked; the “low” column refers to recession years in which utilization
generally bottomed out. The monthly highs and lows are specific to each series, and all did not occur in the same month.

12

Table 7
ANNUAL PROPORTIONS IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS

Item

SIC

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

84.4

84.5

85.4

85.9

86.7

86.8

86.8

87.8

Primary processing
Advanced processing

26.8
57.6

26.1
58.4

26.6
58.9

27.0
58.9

28.2
58.5

28.0
58.8

27.6
59.2

27.8
60.0

Durable
Lumber and products
24
Furniture and fixtures
25
Stone, clay, and glass products 32

44.8
1.8
1.4
2.2

44.2
1.8
1.3
2.1

44.9
2.1
1.4
2.1

45.6
2.2
1.4
2.1

46.3
2.2
1.4
2.2

46.8
2.1
1.4
2.2

47.6
2.1
1.4
2.3

48.5
2.1
1.4
2.4

Primary metals
33
Iron and steel
331,2
Raw steel
Nonferrous
333–6,9
Fabricated metal products
34
Industrial machinery
and equipment
35
Computer and office equip.
357
Electrical machinery
36
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
3672–9

3.3
1.9
.1
1.4
5.1

3.1
1.7
.1
1.4
4.9

3.1
1.8
.1
1.4
5.0

3.3
1.9
.1
1.4
5.1

3.5
2.0
.1
1.6
5.2

3.5
1.9
.1
1.6
5.3

3.5
1.9
.1
1.6
5.4

3.6
2.0
.1
1.6
5.5

8.3
1.8
6.7

7.9
1.6
6.8

7.8
1.6
7.1

8.1
1.6
7.4

8.4
1.6
7.8

8.9
1.7
8.3

9.2
1.8
8.6

9.4
1.9
8.8

2.2

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.9

3.4

3.6

3.7

Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts
Autos and light trucks
Aerospace and misc.
Instruments
Miscellaneous

372–6,9
38
39

9.7
4.7
2.7
5.0
5.1
1.3

9.6
4.6
2.6
5.0
5.4
1.3

9.4
4.7
2.5
4.7
5.4
1.3

9.5
5.1
2.6
4.4
5.3
1.3

9.3
5.5
2.8
3.8
4.9
1.3

8.9
5.4
2.7
3.5
4.8
1.3

8.8
5.2
2.7
3.6
4.9
1.4

9.2
5.3
2.6
3.9
4.8
1.4

20
21
22
23
26

39.6
9.0
1.5
1.7
2.1
3.7

40.3
9.4
1.6
1.7
2.2
3.7

40.6
9.6
1.6
1.8
2.2
3.5

40.3
9.6
1.1
1.8
2.1
3.4

40.4
9.3
1.2
1.8
2.1
3.8

40.1
9.2
1.3
1.7
2.0
3.9

39.3
9.0
1.3
1.6
1.9
3.5

39.3
8.9
1.3
1.6
1.8
3.5

27
28
29
30
31

6.7
9.8
1.6
3.2
.3

6.8
9.9
1.5
3.3
.3

6.8
10.0
1.4
3.5
.3

6.8
9.9
1.5
3.6
.3

6.6
10.0
1.6
3.8
.2

6.6
9.9
1.5
3.7
.2

6.6
9.7
1.6
3.7
.2

6.7
9.8
1.6
3.8
.2

10
12
13
14

7.9
.5
1.2
5.6
.6

7.5
.5
1.1
5.3
.6

6.8
.5
1.0
4.7
.6

6.4
.4
.9
4.4
.6

6.0
.5
.9
4.0
.6

6.1
.5
.9
4.1
.6

6.5
.4
.9
4.6
.6

5.9
.4
.9
4.1
.6

491,3pt
492,3pt

7.7
6.3
1.5

8.0
6.5
1.5

7.8
6.2
1.6

7.7
6.1
1.6

7.4
5.8
1.5

7.1
5.6
1.5

6.7
5.4
1.3

6.3
5.2
1.1

5.4

5.3

5.7

5.8

6.2

6.9

7.3

7.6

79.0

79.2

79.8

80.1

80.4

80.0

79.5

80.1

Total index
Manufacturing

37
371

Nondurable
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products
Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
Utilities
Electric
Gas
SPECIAL AGGREGATES

Computers, communications eq., and
semiconductors
Manufacturing ex. computers,
communications eq., and
semiconductors

Note– The IP proportion data are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall IP growth in the following year. For example, a 1
percent increase in durable goods manufacturing in 1998 would account for a 0.485 percent increase in total IP.

13

Table 8
RATES OF GROWTH IN ELECTRIC POWER USE, 1994–19981
Difference between
revised and earlier growth rates
(percentage points)

Revised growth rate
(percent)
Item

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

4.9

–.8

1.5

1.0

–2.6

.2

.3

.5

–.1

.0

5.1

–.9

1.4

1.1

–2.9

.2

.3

.5

.0

.0

3.4

.5

–.2

3.1

–1.0

.1

.4

.7

–.5

1.0

24
25
32
33
34

2.9
7.6
2.1
3.0
5.5

1.5
–3.6
.2
1.5
.1

4.3
4.2
3.4
–3.8
3.7

–.1
1.4
.8
4.0
3.1

6.6
–1.6
.9
–.3
–1.7

.0
.4
.6
.0
.3

–.6
–.3
.4
1.4
.4

–.8
–.1
.4
2.3
.2

–1.4
–.2
–.2
–.7
–.2

–.8
.6
1.3
1.5
.7

35
36
37
38
39

4.0
2.4
4.1
1.7
11.1

.4
1.5
–2.0
.4
–4.7

1.4
2.5
–.3
–2.8
6.9

3.0
2.3
5.2
.6
.3

2.6
–3.2
–7.2
2.6
–4.8

.5
.2
–.5
.8
–.2

.5
–1.0
–.8
.9
–1.1

–.2
–1.1
–.7
.6
–1.4

–.1
–.8
–.4
–.3
–.7

1.1
–.1
1.4
.7
–.2

6.5

–2.0

2.6

–.5

–4.3

.3

.2

.3

.3

–.8

4.5
–5.5
6.0
6.8
2.7
4.2
9.7
2.7
9.0
–3.5

2.5
6.4
–3.4
–6.4
–.6
.7
–6.5
7.3
–.5
–9.2

1.7
–.3
2.9
–1.8
.4
.8
5.7
–3.3
3.4
–1.4

2.2
.6
2.1
–2.0
2.2
3.0
–4.2
2.5
.6
–1.7

.5
–5.0
3.0
–9.1
–4.1
–2.0
–9.5
–2.7
3.5
–7.3

1.0
–.3
.6
.5
–.1
.5
.3
.0
.3
–.6

.9
–1.1
–.2
.4
–.1
.0
.2
1.1
–.3
.8

.7
–2.3
.3
.8
.0
.3
.1
1.2
–.2
–4.5

.5
–2.3
–1.0
.5
1.3
–.4
–.1
2.0
–.4
–.6

.0
3.2
–.5
–.3
–.1
1.1
–2.0
.5
–.3
2.1

2.2

1.0

2.8

–.4

1.7

.0

.0

.5

–1.2

.5

5.6
7.4
–4.8
7.5

8.5
–1.3
–4.9
5.7

2.5
.0
4.4
3.7

.4
–.6
1.0
–4.2

–.1
8.1
–4.4
10.1

–.2
–.1
.0
.2

–.2
.0
.0
.5

–.1
.0
1.4
.2

–.1
.3
–.8
–5.8

–1.6
1.0
–.9
6.9

3.7
5.3
1.3

.6
–1.2
4.8

.9
1.9
–5.7

2.2
1.0
.8

–1.5
–2.6
3.4

.2
.3
–.3

.3
.4
–.1

.4
.3
–.1

–.1
.1
.4

.2
.3
1.4

Total
Manufacturing
Durable
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, & glass products
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Industrial machinery
and equipment
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures
Nondurable
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Leather and products

20
21
22
23
26
27
28
29
30
31

Mining
Metal mining
Coal mining
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals

10
12
13
14

SUPPLEMENTARY GROUPS
Total, excluding nuclear nondefense
Utility sales to industry
Industrial generation

1. Growth rates are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth
quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 1998, the growth rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the third
quarter of 1998 and annualized.

14

Explanatory Note
The statistical release of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization reports
measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and
the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly indexes on
the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. Files containing data in the
release and historical data are available under statistical releases at
http://www.federalreserve.gov, the Board’s World Wide Web site. These data are
also available on line on the day of issue through the Economic Bulletin Board of the
Department of Commerce. For information, call (202) 482-1986. Diskettes
containing historical data and the data published in this release are available from the
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services,
(202) 452-3245.

Industrial Production
Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures output in the
manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period
for the index is 1992. For the period since 1992, the total IP index has been
constructed from 264 individual series based on the 1987 Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC). These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market
groups (shown in table 1), such as consumer goods, equipment, intermediate
products, and materials; and (2) industry groups (shown in tables 2 and 6), such as
two-digit SIC industries and major aggregates of these industries—for example,
durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Market groups. For purposes of analysis, the individual IP series are grouped into
final products, intermediate products, and materials. Final products are assumed to be
purchased by consumers, businesses, or government for final use. Intermediate
products are expected to become inputs in nonindustrial sectors, such as
construction, agriculture, and services. Materials are industrial output requiring
further processing within the industrial sector. Total products comprise final and
intermediate products, and final products are divided into consumer goods and
equipment.
Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the
following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in
tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source
data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in
tables.) After the fourth month, indexes are not revised further until the time of an
annual revision or a benchmark revision. The last three benchmark revisions were
published in 1990, 1985, and 1976.
Source data. In annual or benchmark revisions, the individual IP indexes are
constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of
Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures,
prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the
Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. On a
monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from
two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on
inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical
products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade
associations as well as from government agencies including those listed above; data
of this type are used to estimate monthly IP where possible and appropriate. When
suitable data on physical product are unavailable, estimates of output are based on
either production-worker hours or electric power use by industry. Data on hours
worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey
conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on electric power use are
described below. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are
based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive data used
to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological
or cyclical developments. Especially for the first and second estimates for a given
month, the available source data are limited and subject to revision.
Weights. In the index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are
weighted according to their proportion in the total value-added output of all
industries. The industrial production index, which extends back to 1919, is built as an
annually weighted chain-type index since 1977. The components of IP are combined
using estimates of value added per unit of output. For months from January to June,
the weights are drawn from the year containing the month being estimated and the
preceding year; for months from July to December, the weights are drawn from the
current and following year. The IP proportions shown in column 1 of tables 1A, 2A,
and 6 are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the
following year. For example, a 1 percent increase in durable goods manufacturing in
1997 would account for an increase in total IP of nearly 1/2 percent.
Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted by the X–11 ARIMA
method, developed at Statistics Canada. For series based on production-worker
hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through October 1998;
for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 1998. In
some cases, series were preadjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle
before using X–11 ARIMA. For the data since 1977, all seasonally adjusted
aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of
the individual series.
Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to
sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.28 percent during the 1987–97

period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign,
from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–97
period. In most cases (about 83 percent), the direction of change in output indicated
by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate.
Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes,
and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes
shown in the release.

Capacity Utilization
Definition. Capacity utilization is calculated for the manufacturing, mining, and
electric and gas utilities industries. For a given industry, the utilization rate is equal to
an output index divided by a capacity index. Output is measured by seasonally
adjusted indexes of industrial production. The capacity indexes attempt to capture
the concept of sustainable practical capacity, which is defined as the greatest level of
output that a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule,
taking account of normal downtime, and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to
operate the machinery and equipment in place. The 76 individual capacity indexes
are based on a variety of data, including capacity data measured in physical units
compiled by trade associations, surveys of utilization rates and investment, and
estimates of growth of the capital input.
Groups. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups,
including primary and advanced processing industries within manufacturing,
durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and
total industry. Component industries of the primary and advanced processing groups
within manufacturing are listed in the note on tables 2 and 3 of the release.
Weights. Although each utilization rate is the result of dividing an IP series by a
corresponding capacity index, aggregate utilization rates are equivalent to
combinations of individual utilization rates aggregated with proportions that reflect
current capacity levels of output valued in current-period value added per unit of
actual output. The implied proportions of individual industry operating rates in the
rate for total industry for the most recent year are shown in the first column of table 3.
Perspective. The historical highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in the tables
above are specific to each series and did not all occur in the same month. Industrial
plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent:
none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and
total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime.

Electric Power
Data on electric power (expressed in kilowatt hours) are collected by the Federal
Reserve District Banks from electric utilities and also from manufacturing and
mining establishments that generate electric power for their own use (cogenerators).
The indexes of power use shown in table 9 are sums of kilowatt hours used by an
industry or industry group expressed as a percentage of that industry’s or group’s
usage in 1992. The first column of the table shows, for reference, electric power use
in billions of kilowatt hours as reported by manufacturing and mining industries in
the 1992 censuses of those industries. The supplementary group, “Total, less nuclear
nondefense,” is shown separately because the value-added proportion for the
nondefense nuclear material series (part of SIC 2819) in total IP is considerably
smaller than its share of total electric power use. Excluding this component from total
power use facilitates comparisons with total IP.

References
This annual revision will be described more completely in the February 1999 Federal
Reserve Bulletin.
A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity
utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February
1997), pp. 67–92. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed
description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus
a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. To obtain
Industrial Production—1986 Edition ($9.00 per copy), write to Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, Washington, DC 20551. The
major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been
described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March
1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, and February 1998). The basic
methodology used to estimate capacity and utilization is discussed in the June 1990
Federal Reserve Bulletin.

Release Schedule for 1999
At 9:15 a.m. on January 15, February 17, March 16, April 16, May 14, June 16, July
16, August 17, September 16, October 15, November 16, and December 15.

15


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102