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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EST) November 17, 2005 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in October after a drop of 1.5 percent in September. Hurricane-related recoveries in many industries and the resolution of a strike at a major aircraft producer contributed significantly to the increase in output. At 107.9 percent of its 2002 average, output in October was 1.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Manufacturing production increased 1.4 percent, a rise that more than reversed its September decline of 0.7 percent. The output at mines edged down 0.5 percent after having fallen 8-1/2 percent in September, and the (over) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY Seasonally adjusted 2002=100 Percent change Industrial production 2005 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Total index Previous estimates 108.3 108.2 108.5 108.7 106.9 107.1 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 109.7 105.2 120.0 107.4 107.5 107.2 110.0 105.6 120.2 107.8 108.3 107.2 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 109.1 109.1 99.8 108.1 109.6 109.8 99.0 107.1 Capacity utilization Average 1972--2004 2005 Julyr Aug.r 107.9 .0 .0 .2 .4 109.0 106.1 114.7 107.7 109.6 104.4 110.6 105.7 122.2 108.3 111.1 105.0 .1 -.5 1.3 .0 .6 -.1 108.8 109.0 90.5 106.1 110.4 .1 .1 -1.0 -.1 1982 low 1988--89 high 90.0 104.1 Percent of capacity 2004 2005 Oct. Julyr Oct.p Oct. ’04 to Oct. ’05 -1.5 -1.5 .9 1.9 .3 .4 .2 .3 .7 .0 -.9 .4 -4.6 .0 1.2 -2.6 1.4 -.3 6.6 .5 1.4 .6 4.0 2.1 8.5 3.1 4.7 -.5 .4 .6 -.7 -.9 -.7 -.7 -8.6 -.9 1.4 3.2 -.5 -1.9 -8.0 1.3 Sept.r Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Capacity growth Oct. ’04 to Oct. ’05 Total industry Previous estimates 81.0 70.7 85.1 79.2 80.2 80.1 80.2 80.3 78.9 79.0 79.5 1.6 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 79.8 68.4 85.5 78.1 86.1 92.7 86.9 83.8 78.1 78.2 80.9 86.4 2.0 78.7 77.6 78.8 78.9 88.5 87.2 79.0 87.3 86.8 78.6 78.6 89.1 88.0 80.4 84.8 -.7 .1 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.4 82.2 77.9 77.4 67.9 71.0 88.3 86.7 82.8 86.6 81.2 75.2 87.5 81.6 76.8 86.6 81.7 77.1 78.1 81.6 76.4 78.7 81.7 77.8 -1.0 2.4 1.2 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE-- The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the industrial sector, which the Federal Reserve defines as manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Manufacturing comprises those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus the logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing industries that have traditionally been considered manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. output at utilities decreased 1.9 percent. Capacity utilization for total industry rose 0.6 percentage point, to 79.5 percent, a rate that is 0.3 percentage point above its year-earlier level but 1.5 percentage points below its 1972--2004 average. Market Groups The output of consumer goods decreased 0.3 percent in October and was led by a decline of 0.8 percent in the production of durable goods. Among durables, the output of automotive products dropped 1.3 percent, and the index for appliances, furniture, and carpeting fell 0.7 percent; however, both groups had posted significant gains during the third quarter. On the positive side, the output of home electronics rose 0.8 percent in October after contracting sharply during the previous four months, and the index for miscellaneous goods edged up after posting sizable gains in the previous two months. The output of consumer nondurable goods, which edged down 0.2 percent, continued its string of recent declines. Consumer energy products contracted 1.6 percent further after falling 2.5 percent in September, as hurricane-related shutdowns continued to crimp production. Among non-energy nondurable goods, the output of foods and tobacco slipped 0.1 percent, and the production of clothing dropped 2.5 percent. The output of consumer chemical products rose 0.6 percent, and the output of paper products increased 1 percent; both indexes had declined during the third quarter. The production of business equipment jumped 6.6 percent. The resolution of the aircraft manufacturing strike was the principal reason for an increase of nearly 37 percent in the index for transit equipment. The output of information processing equipment rose 1.8 percent to a level nearly 18 percent higher than it was a year earlier, and the production of industrial and other equipment rose 0.6 percent. The output of defense and space equipment increased 2.3 percent, more than reversing its September decline. The gain reflected mainly a bounceback in shipbuilding that followed a hurricane-related curtailment in production. The index for construction supplies popped up 1.4 percent after expanding 1.2 percent in September; the gains were concentrated in industries that may have benefited from rebuilding efforts in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The index for business supplies edged up 0.2 percent, as weaker output of commercial energy products only partly offset rising output of general business supplies. The output of materials rose 0.6 percent. The index for non-energy materials increased 1.2 percent, while the index for energy materials fell 1 percent. Output rose for all categories of durable materials. Among non-energy nondurable materials, results were mixed: Paper output increased, textiles output edged down, and chemicals output only partly reversed its sizable storm-related decline in September. Industry Groups Manufacturing production rose 1.4 percent in October. The production of durables, which expanded 2.2 percent, was spurred by a rebound in aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment that followed the settlement of a strike. In the computer and electronic products industry, output rose 1.7 percent; the communications equipment industry recorded a sizable gain, while the production of semiconductors increased a bit more slowly than in the previous couple of months. Significant gains were also posted in a number of other durable goods industries, including wood products; nonmetallic mineral products; fabricated metal products; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; and miscellaneous manufacturing. Industries with decreases in output included primary metals and motor vehicles and parts, both of which had seen large increases during the previous two months. Output also moved down in the industries for machinery and for furniture and related products. The output of nondurable manufacturing industries rose 0.5 percent, a gain that was more than accounted for by an increase of 2.4 percent in the output of chemical industries. Production increased slightly in the industries for textiles and products, for paper, and for printing and support, while output was unchanged in the food, beverage, and tobacco products industry. The production of petroleum and coal products moved down 1.8 percent after a cumulative decline of almost 9-1/2 percent over the previous three months. The output of non-NAICS manufacturing industries (publishing and logging) rose 0.8 percent. Taken together, the changes in manufacturing output boosted the factory operating rate 0.9 percentage point, to 79.0 percent. The output at mines edged down 0.5 percent, as the extraction of oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico retreated from already depressed levels of activity. Capacity utilization in mining fell to 80.4 percent, a rate that is roughly 9 percentage points below its level in early summer. The output at utilities dropped 1.9 percent, and the operating rate fell to 84.8 percent. 2 By stage of process, capacity utilization for industries at the crude stage rose 0.6 percentage point, to 78.7 percent, a rate still well below pre-hurricane levels. At the primary and semifinished stage, capacity utilization was 81.7 percent and has varied by no more than 0.1 percentage point since June. At the finished stage, capacity utilization rose 1.4 percentage points, to 77.8 percent, a rate that is 0.1 percentage point below its 1972--2004 average. Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization On November 7, 2005, the Federal Reserve Board issued its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. The base year for the indexes of industrial production, capacity, and electric power use was advanced to 2002. The revisions to the IP index were principally derived from the inclusion of information contained in annual reports issued by the Census Bureau—namely, the 2003 Annual Survey of Manufactures, the revised data from the 2002 Census of Manufactures, and selected 2004 Current Industrial Reports. Annual data on minerals (except fuels) for 2003 and 2004 from the U.S. Geological Survey and updated deflators from the Bureau of Economic Analysis were also introduced. The updating also included revisions to the monthly indicator for each industry (either physical product data or production-worker hours) and revisions to seasonal factors. The Federal Reserve discontinued its use of survey data of industrial electric power use in the industrial production index. The Federal Reserve is proposing to discontinue the survey itself; the period for public comment on the proposal ends November 28, 2005. Capacity and capacity utilization were revised to incorporate data from the Census Bureau’s 2004 Survey of Plant Capacity, which covers manufacturing, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations. The revision is available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data are also available through the website of the Department of Commerce. Further information on these revisions is available from the Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197). Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change Motor Vehicle Assemblies Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Industrial Capacity Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups Electric Power Use Historical Statistics: Total Industry Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Further detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). 3 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization 160 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Total Manufacturing 160 135 135 110 110 Capacity 85 85 Production Detail: 2001 to present 60 112 60 108 Production 104 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 96 2005 Percent of capacity 100 35 100 95 95 Utilization 85 85 75 75 65 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 65 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). See note on cover page. 4 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization Consumer goods Equipment Ratio scale, 2002=100 115 115 110 110 105 100 105 Nondurable 95 90 130 125 120 115 Business 100 110 110 95 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 Durable Ratio scale, 2002=100 130 125 120 115 85 85 80 80 85 75 80 115 115 110 110 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 75 1998 2000 Nonindustrial supplies 2002 2004 110 Construction 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 85 80 1998 2000 Capacity utilization 2002 2004 Primary and 85 processing Excluding utilities 1998 2000 2002 2004 80 Ratio scale, 2002=100 Energy 115 90 85 85 80 80 80 75 1998 2000 Capacity utilization 2002 2004 75 Percent of capacity 90 90 90 85 85 85 Finished processing 75 70 2002 Non-energy semifinished 80 2000 85 Percent of capacity 90 1998 90 90 Other business 90 85 Industrial materials Ratio scale, 2002=100 115 Defense and Space 90 2004 80 80 80 75 75 75 70 70 5 1998 2000 2002 2004 70 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 125 115 125 115 Excluding high-technology industries 95 95 75 75 Total IP 55 35 1970 1975 1980 55 1985 1990 1995 Industrial production 2000 2005 35 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1970 1975 Industrial production 1980 1985 Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 300 200 Communications eq. 150 Computers 100 200 95 100 80 60 60 40 40 10 20 Semiconductors 1998 2000 1995 Capacity utilization 300 150 100 80 20 1990 2000 -5 -10 2005 -15 Percent of capacity 100 95 Excluding high-technology industries 85 85 75 75 65 65 High-technology industries 2002 2004 2006 55 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 55 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 6 Table 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted It Item 2004 100.00 2.3 1.5 4.3 4.2 3.8 1.6 .9 .0 .2 -1.5 .9 1.9 57.78 30.24 8.66 4.70 .27 1.41 2.28 21.57 17.39 9.49 .76 4.76 1.89 4.18 1.5 2.7 7.9 12.4 -7.7 4.0 4.9 .8 -1.0 -3.1 -7.1 4.0 -.5 9.5 1.7 1.3 4.3 6.5 18.5 2.2 -.7 .1 .6 2.1 -9.3 1.0 -3.5 -1.9 4.3 2.0 1.3 .4 -3.7 2.4 3.0 2.3 2.5 1.8 -2.8 3.0 5.9 1.7 4.9 4.3 6.0 11.0 17.5 1.8 -2.5 3.6 2.8 1.0 4.9 4.4 4.6 7.2 4.3 2.4 1.7 2.0 3.5 2.2 .4 2.7 3.2 1.2 -6.7 4.0 13.9 .8 3.0 1.5 -2.5 -4.2 31.8 -2.2 -2.9 3.1 2.4 3.2 -8.0 2.2 2.7 5.9 2.9 3.2 10.3 16.0 -21.6 10.4 3.1 .5 -.7 .9 8.4 -4.3 -5.1 5.7 .0 -.5 -1.3 -2.0 -3.6 -.3 -.2 -.2 -.2 .0 2.1 -.9 -.8 -.1 .3 .4 2.8 4.4 -1.8 1.5 .8 -.6 -.5 -.8 .4 -.3 -.1 -.9 -.7 .4 2.2 2.8 -4.6 1.5 1.9 -.2 .3 .5 2.3 .3 -.8 -2.5 1.2 -.3 -.8 -1.3 .8 -.7 .1 -.2 .2 -.1 -2.5 .6 1.0 -1.6 3.8 2.1 3.6 4.8 -4.0 3.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 -2.2 .8 4.2 .8 9.97 1.86 2.73 5.37 1.92 -2.3 -10.8 -8.9 5.4 .8 2.8 3.6 6.5 .4 5.4 10.8 9.7 14.6 9.2 9.7 7.5 15.4 15.8 .9 10.1 9.5 15.7 17.7 3.2 12.0 6.7 15.7 12.7 .5 11.5 2.0 -27.3 21.6 4.8 5.4 1.3 -.7 2.2 1.7 1.6 .2 .9 1.4 -.8 .3 -4.6 -25.5 1.1 .2 -2.1 6.6 36.8 1.8 .6 2.3 8.5 12.2 17.9 2.4 9.1 4.41 10.78 1.2 2.5 1.7 .9 4.6 3.9 1.9 3.8 .9 4.2 4.1 2.2 4.5 1.2 .6 -.2 .7 .2 1.2 -.5 1.4 .2 4.7 2.3 42.22 30.19 19.01 3.67 6.67 8.67 11.17 .68 2.41 4.66 12.04 3.4 4.4 5.4 6.0 7.4 3.4 2.7 4.9 .8 4.0 .4 1.2 1.7 3.8 -1.2 11.8 .0 -1.7 -6.5 -6.5 1.6 -.1 4.3 6.0 7.6 2.0 14.1 4.9 3.2 -6.4 4.6 5.3 -.2 3.1 3.4 4.7 7.2 7.0 1.6 1.1 -8.2 .8 2.1 2.4 3.2 4.1 6.8 2.0 20.2 -1.0 -.5 -6.5 2.3 -5.4 1.0 -.3 -.8 1.2 -3.4 10.4 -4.0 -4.3 -9.8 -6.0 -5.3 1.1 -1.9 1.8 7.3 6.6 14.1 2.3 -7.1 2.3 -4.8 -15.0 -10.0 -.1 .3 .3 -1.3 1.2 .2 .3 1.0 -1.1 .5 -1.0 .0 .4 1.1 .5 1.6 1.0 -.8 -.9 -.1 -1.2 -1.0 -2.6 -.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 -4.5 -1.4 -.7 -10.4 -7.1 .6 1.2 .9 .3 1.8 .5 1.8 -.3 .8 3.8 -1.0 -.5 2.4 6.4 2.5 15.3 1.1 -4.4 -5.6 -1.3 -10.2 -7.3 321 327 331 332 333 334 81.95 77.47 43.11 1.59 2.28 2.57 5.75 5.36 7.75 2.2 2.5 3.8 .9 1.0 6.6 1.2 4.2 2.9 1.7 2.0 4.0 4.0 2.2 1.0 -.7 1.0 15.7 5.1 5.2 7.1 3.0 5.1 3.9 5.2 11.5 16.1 4.0 4.3 6.1 1.6 1.2 -1.0 2.7 1.7 10.9 4.5 4.2 6.8 3.4 -3.6 -9.0 2.0 3.4 27.0 1.3 1.2 2.6 -5.2 .2 -17.2 1.5 1.8 16.2 1.9 2.4 6.8 .4 1.2 3.6 3.3 1.9 22.5 .1 .2 .3 .5 -.5 -.2 .5 1.1 1.9 .4 .4 1.3 -.7 .1 3.8 .4 -1.8 2.2 -.7 -.7 -.1 2.0 1.1 3.4 .2 .8 1.5 1.4 1.5 2.2 1.0 1.7 -.3 1.9 -.3 1.7 3.2 3.3 6.9 1.3 1.9 -3.1 3.7 1.2 21.1 335 3361-- 3 2.10 7.30 -2.2 12.2 -.7 4.7 5.2 2.6 3.6 12.6 1.6 3.5 1.9 -4.4 12.5 12.5 1.1 -2.0 1.0 3.6 1.3 2.3 2.4 -.6 7.9 4.7 3364-- 9 337 339 3.48 1.72 3.22 -7.3 7.3 9.6 -.4 .3 .6 5.3 2.2 3.9 8.6 1.9 5.2 10.7 .1 6.5 16.2 -7.7 1.7 -15.1 1.9 7.4 .6 -.1 .0 .8 .4 1.7 -15.8 1.4 .5 20.1 -1.2 1.7 10.6 -1.2 7.0 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.36 11.02 1.17 .81 2.82 2.11 2.25 10.54 3.64 .8 -2.2 2.2 -6.9 3.4 -3.2 2.9 3.6 4.4 -.4 1.7 -4.2 -9.4 -6.0 -3.0 .3 .7 -.2 2.8 1.7 -3.9 -2.2 4.5 1.5 6.2 4.2 3.2 2.0 1.2 -6.6 6.0 .7 1.7 5.1 3.6 1.3 .9 2.6 .3 -7.1 2.7 1.7 .4 -.9 1.7 -.4 3.1 -7.6 -7.1 -8.4 -1.8 2.2 -.4 -1.8 -3.0 1.2 7.7 9.7 -5.3 4.2 -15.0 -9.9 5.8 .0 .3 1.2 2.2 -1.3 1.4 -2.1 -.2 .4 -.6 -.9 -.1 .5 -.4 -.5 -1.3 -.9 .8 -1.6 .4 -.3 2.3 -.1 .5 -6.2 -5.2 2.6 .5 .0 .3 -2.3 .5 .3 -1.8 2.4 -.5 -1.3 1.8 -1.9 -1.6 -2.7 2.0 -8.3 -4.4 2.6 1133,5111 4.48 -2.6 -3.0 3.7 -.3 10.0 1.8 -6.5 -1.0 .0 -.5 .8 2.4 21 2211,2 2211 2212 8.53 9.52 7.92 1.61 -3.8 7.0 5.6 15.5 .5 .7 1.9 -5.5 -.4 1.2 2.0 -2.9 1.8 7.0 9.2 -3.6 4.2 -1.9 -3.0 3.5 -.1 6.4 5.9 9.3 -14.8 9.3 12.9 -6.6 -1.0 -.1 -.1 -.4 -.7 -.9 -.6 -2.5 -8.6 -.9 -.7 -1.9 -.5 -1.9 -2.5 1.0 -8.0 1.3 1.0 2.9 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy INDUSTRY GROUPS Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Q3r 2005 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Oct. ’04 to Oct. ’05 2003 MARKET GROUPS Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas Monthly rate 2002 Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Annual rate 2005 Q1 Q2 2004 Q4 2004 proportion1 Total IP Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Fourth quarter to fourth quarter r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Under industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of an NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year. 7 Table 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: SPECIAL AGGREGATES AND SELECTED DETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted It Item Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Annual rate 2005 Q1 Q2 Monthly rate 2002 2003 2004 100.00 2.3 1.5 4.3 4.2 3.8 1.6 .9 .0 .2 -1.5 .9 1.9 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 19.02 4.18 2.44 .35 3.75 8.29 2.8 9.5 4.5 -15.2 4.1 -1.6 .5 -1.9 5.1 21.2 .6 -.4 .7 1.7 2.4 8.3 1.6 -1.0 4.8 7.2 10.6 15.9 8.7 -.5 .9 .8 -1.8 19.1 -.1 1.5 2.9 5.9 6.9 1.8 6.1 -1.0 -5.1 5.7 -1.3 19.9 -1.0 -13.7 -.9 -.1 -2.0 2.1 -1.2 -.9 -.9 -.9 -.8 1.8 -2.1 -.5 -5.3 -2.5 -2.3 -.2 -2.7 -9.0 -1.3 -1.6 -2.6 2.3 -1.1 -1.0 -4.4 .8 -1.7 15.8 -1.0 -9.9 Non-energy 80.98 2.2 1.7 5.1 4.0 4.5 1.3 2.4 .2 .4 -.5 1.5 3.5 3341 3342 4.93 .91 1.15 4.8 -2.6 -22.6 21.1 5.8 9.9 18.4 4.6 22.3 9.6 7.7 28.0 32.8 10.9 24.4 16.4 14.0 12.1 27.6 6.3 29.7 2.2 .0 4.0 2.9 .2 1.2 2.2 .4 .9 1.7 .4 2.7 24.8 9.3 23.2 334412-- 9 2.87 26.0 34.1 21.4 3.5 43.8 18.9 33.5 2.1 4.4 3.2 1.7 30.3 76.06 1.9 .5 4.2 3.6 2.8 .3 .9 .1 .3 -.7 1.5 2.2 7.30 3.65 3.20 12.2 14.4 10.3 4.7 10.4 -1.5 2.6 1.6 2.2 12.6 16.0 8.1 3.5 .8 4.7 -4.4 -6.4 -.9 12.5 21.2 7.5 -2.0 -3.3 -.3 3.6 6.3 1.1 2.3 3.7 1.1 -.6 -1.4 .1 4.7 6.0 4.1 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 68.76 21.66 7.81 4.38 7.94 24.99 .9 .0 .4 1.4 1.4 1.8 .0 .7 .5 1.7 -1.6 -.8 4.4 2.3 9.0 4.6 3.3 4.7 2.7 2.2 3.7 1.7 1.5 2.5 2.7 2.9 7.3 .8 4.2 .2 .8 1.5 7.4 3.9 -.2 -2.8 -.3 .0 -1.6 4.5 .3 -1.6 .3 -.2 1.5 .5 .2 .2 -.1 -.3 -.2 .7 .3 -.1 -1.0 .6 -6.3 1.2 -.2 -1.3 1.7 .0 8.2 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.5 7.1 4.6 2.2 -.5 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 95.07 77.02 38.39 2.1 1.9 3.5 .5 .4 1.7 3.6 4.2 5.6 3.8 3.6 5.4 2.4 2.8 3.5 .8 .3 .7 -.4 .3 4.2 -.1 .0 .1 .0 .3 1.0 -1.7 -.9 -.4 .9 1.4 2.2 .8 1.9 4.6 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 92.70 74.65 36.02 1.5 1.3 2.2 1.3 1.4 3.8 4.5 5.4 8.0 3.5 3.2 4.7 3.9 4.6 7.4 2.1 1.8 3.9 .0 .9 5.7 .1 .3 .8 -.1 .1 .8 -1.8 -1.0 -.6 1.1 1.7 2.7 1.7 3.1 7.3 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 87.78 69.73 1.3 1.0 .1 .0 3.6 4.4 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.7 1.3 .8 -1.4 -.9 .0 .2 -.2 -.1 -2.0 -1.3 1.0 1.6 .5 1.6 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 13.44 16.75 5.7 3.3 3.6 .2 7.9 4.3 5.2 1.8 10.6 -.9 2.7 -3.7 8.1 -3.0 .1 .4 .9 .1 .9 -2.0 1.1 1.3 7.8 -1.9 Total industry Selected high-technology industries Computer and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361-- 3 3361 3363 Q3r 2005 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Oct. ’04 to Oct. ’05 2004 Q4 2004 proportion r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. See note on cover page. Table 3 MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2004 average 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3 2005 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 11.96 4.23 7.73 7.37 .36 11.97 4.18 7.79 7.37 .41 12.10 4.39 7.71 7.27 .44 11.72 4.22 7.50 7.08 .42 12.13 4.31 7.83 7.41 .41 11.77 4.27 7.50 7.07 .43 12.18 4.29 7.88 7.48 .41 12.45 4.36 8.10 7.70 .40 12.35 4.40 7.95 7.54 .41 MEMO Autos and light trucks 11.60 11.56 11.66 11.30 11.72 11.34 11.77 12.05 11.94 It Item NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 8 Table 4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY 2002 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2004 proportion It Item Total IP June Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 107.2 107.4 108.3 108.3 108.5 106.9 107.9 57.78 30.24 8.66 4.70 .27 1.41 2.28 21.57 17.39 9.49 .76 4.76 1.89 4.18 107.6 104.7 109.7 113.9 115.0 104.5 103.8 102.8 103.2 103.0 85.8 105.5 104.5 101.1 107.7 104.6 107.7 110.3 113.1 105.5 102.9 103.4 103.1 103.2 85.1 104.7 105.2 104.6 107.7 104.1 106.0 107.8 115.2 102.9 103.0 103.3 103.3 103.2 85.4 105.2 105.6 103.1 108.1 104.6 107.1 109.3 124.7 104.0 102.5 103.5 103.9 104.2 83.3 105.4 106.2 102.0 109.0 105.8 108.5 111.7 120.4 105.6 102.5 104.7 104.0 104.7 82.9 105.2 105.6 107.2 109.1 105.2 107.1 109.5 116.1 105.2 102.3 104.4 103.8 104.7 84.7 104.2 104.7 107.1 109.4 105.6 110.1 114.3 114.1 106.8 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.8 85.0 103.9 104.7 106.1 108.7 106.1 112.4 117.5 108.8 108.3 105.0 103.6 103.6 104.3 87.0 104.2 103.8 103.5 110.0 105.7 111.6 116.0 109.7 107.6 105.1 103.4 103.8 104.2 84.8 104.8 104.9 101.9 9.97 1.86 2.73 5.37 1.92 115.9 114.8 125.5 111.2 121.6 116.3 115.1 126.3 111.4 122.5 116.8 116.4 127.4 111.3 124.5 117.9 118.7 129.2 111.7 124.1 118.4 119.3 131.0 111.6 124.9 120.0 118.5 133.9 113.4 126.8 120.2 119.6 135.8 112.4 127.2 114.7 89.1 137.3 112.7 124.4 122.2 121.9 139.8 113.4 127.3 4.41 10.78 106.4 106.1 106.2 106.5 107.3 106.7 107.5 106.7 106.9 107.6 107.5 107.4 108.3 107.5 109.6 107.0 111.1 107.2 42.22 30.19 19.01 3.67 6.67 8.67 11.17 .68 2.41 4.66 12.04 107.0 109.7 115.2 102.4 138.0 104.6 101.0 85.4 98.6 104.9 99.7 106.8 109.4 114.8 100.4 137.8 104.8 100.7 85.1 98.6 103.9 99.8 106.5 109.2 114.9 99.1 139.7 104.5 100.1 83.5 97.5 103.7 99.2 106.5 109.3 115.2 99.5 141.0 104.1 99.8 83.6 96.4 102.6 99.2 107.3 109.5 115.5 102.4 141.7 103.0 99.7 84.4 97.2 102.9 101.3 107.2 109.8 115.9 101.1 143.4 103.2 100.0 85.3 96.1 103.3 100.3 107.2 110.2 117.1 101.6 145.6 104.3 99.3 84.5 96.0 102.1 99.3 104.4 109.5 118.8 103.2 147.6 105.8 94.8 83.3 95.3 91.4 92.2 105.0 110.8 120.0 103.5 150.3 106.4 96.5 83.0 96.1 94.9 91.3 321 327 331 332 333 334 81.95 77.47 43.11 1.59 2.28 2.57 5.75 5.36 7.75 108.6 109.0 114.8 105.7 106.4 101.9 105.3 114.0 146.8 108.2 108.6 114.2 104.9 105.1 102.3 105.0 114.3 147.4 108.3 108.6 114.3 104.8 105.7 99.5 105.5 114.3 149.5 108.7 109.0 115.0 105.9 105.9 98.9 105.7 114.5 152.2 109.0 109.4 115.5 104.4 106.4 95.5 105.6 115.0 153.6 109.1 109.6 115.9 104.9 105.9 95.3 106.1 116.3 156.5 109.6 110.1 117.4 104.2 105.9 98.9 106.5 114.1 160.0 108.8 109.3 117.3 106.3 107.1 102.3 106.7 115.0 162.4 110.4 110.9 119.8 107.4 109.0 102.0 108.7 114.7 165.1 335 3361-- 3 2.10 7.30 103.7 113.4 103.6 109.8 103.5 107.9 104.4 108.8 105.1 111.4 106.3 109.2 107.4 113.1 108.8 115.7 111.3 114.9 3364-- 9 337 339 3.48 1.72 3.22 106.3 102.2 108.9 107.5 101.6 108.8 109.5 100.0 108.9 110.4 100.3 109.0 110.2 99.9 109.7 110.9 99.8 109.7 111.8 100.2 111.6 94.1 101.6 112.2 113.0 100.3 114.1 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.36 11.02 1.17 .81 2.82 2.11 2.25 10.54 3.64 102.2 103.0 91.6 86.1 99.6 97.0 107.6 104.6 103.7 101.9 103.3 91.5 85.5 99.8 96.4 105.7 103.8 103.5 101.9 103.2 89.6 85.8 98.2 96.5 106.9 104.1 103.8 101.9 104.3 89.8 83.9 96.8 97.0 105.5 103.9 103.1 102.1 104.5 90.8 83.6 97.8 96.5 107.9 103.9 102.9 102.1 104.8 91.9 85.5 96.6 97.9 105.6 103.7 103.2 101.5 103.9 91.9 85.9 96.2 97.3 104.2 102.8 104.1 99.9 104.3 91.6 87.9 96.1 97.8 97.7 97.5 106.8 100.5 104.3 91.8 85.8 96.6 98.1 96.0 99.8 106.3 1133,5111 4.48 101.5 102.4 102.5 103.2 102.0 101.0 101.1 100.5 101.3 21 2211,2 2211 2212 8.53 9.52 7.92 1.61 100.9 101.7 102.9 95.6 100.4 104.8 105.5 101.1 100.5 103.1 104.1 98.3 99.8 102.9 103.2 101.1 100.8 108.3 109.7 101.2 99.8 108.1 109.6 100.9 99.0 107.1 108.9 98.3 90.5 106.1 108.2 96.4 90.0 104.1 105.5 97.4 Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy INDUSTRY GROUPS Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas May 107.3 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Apr. 107.4 MARKET GROUPS Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Mar. 100.00 Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous 2005 Feb. r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. See notes to table 1. 9 Table 5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: SPECIAL AGGREGATES 2002 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2004 proportion It Item Total industry 2005 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 100.00 107.4 107.3 107.2 107.4 108.3 108.3 108.5 106.9 107.9 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 19.02 4.18 2.44 .35 3.75 8.29 101.6 101.1 107.7 138.2 101.2 98.9 102.8 104.6 109.5 140.0 103.5 98.1 102.0 103.1 109.1 140.1 101.9 97.9 101.5 102.0 108.4 135.7 102.1 97.8 104.8 107.2 113.7 140.6 107.2 98.7 103.9 107.1 111.5 143.6 105.9 97.8 103.0 106.1 110.6 146.2 103.6 97.3 97.5 103.5 108.0 146.0 100.9 88.6 96.2 101.9 105.2 149.3 99.8 87.7 Non-energy 80.98 108.7 108.3 108.4 108.8 109.0 109.2 109.7 109.2 110.8 3341 3342 4.93 .91 1.15 160.4 114.7 134.3 160.4 115.8 133.6 163.1 117.0 134.9 166.2 118.5 138.3 167.9 120.1 139.7 171.6 120.0 145.3 176.5 120.3 147.0 180.4 120.8 148.3 183.5 121.2 152.4 334412-- 9 2.87 196.0 195.8 200.0 203.8 205.7 209.9 219.1 226.1 229.8 76.06 105.7 105.3 105.2 105.5 105.7 105.7 106.0 105.3 106.8 7.30 3.65 3.20 113.4 120.5 104.0 109.8 114.8 102.1 107.9 111.1 102.1 108.8 113.3 101.9 111.4 117.1 103.6 109.2 113.2 103.3 113.1 120.3 104.4 115.7 124.8 105.6 114.9 123.0 105.7 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 68.76 21.66 7.81 4.38 7.94 24.99 104.8 103.3 111.2 106.2 102.6 103.7 104.8 103.2 112.1 106.0 102.6 103.5 104.9 103.2 112.7 107.1 102.8 103.1 105.2 103.8 113.6 107.3 102.9 103.0 105.1 103.8 113.8 106.7 102.5 102.8 105.4 103.6 115.5 107.3 102.7 103.0 105.3 103.3 115.3 108.0 103.0 103.0 104.2 103.9 108.1 109.4 102.8 101.6 106.0 103.9 116.9 110.8 103.8 103.0 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 95.07 77.02 38.39 104.9 105.6 109.3 104.8 105.2 108.7 104.6 105.1 108.5 104.7 105.4 109.0 105.5 105.7 109.4 105.4 105.6 109.5 105.4 105.9 110.6 103.7 105.0 110.2 104.6 106.4 112.6 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 92.70 74.65 36.02 106.9 108.1 115.0 107.1 108.1 115.1 107.1 108.3 115.5 107.3 108.7 116.2 108.0 108.8 116.3 108.2 109.1 117.2 108.1 109.2 118.2 106.2 108.1 117.5 107.3 109.9 120.7 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 87.78 69.73 104.2 104.8 104.4 104.8 104.3 104.8 104.4 105.1 105.0 105.1 105.1 105.3 104.8 105.2 102.7 103.9 103.8 105.6 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 13.44 16.75 116.8 104.0 116.1 103.9 116.2 103.6 116.7 103.3 118.1 102.6 118.3 103.0 119.3 103.1 120.4 101.0 121.8 102.3 Selected high-technology industries Computer and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361-- 3 3361 3363 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. See note on cover page. Table 6 DIFFUSION INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Percent Item It Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. One month earlier 2003 2004 2005 43.0 61.0 54.7 48.0 62.7 47.3 47.3 53.0 49.7 35.7 66.7 52.7 51.3 58.7 54.0 53.0 46.3 56.7 48.0 66.0 54.3 49.7 56.0 49.0 59.7 47.0 56.5 60.0 61.0 66.7 53.7 55.3 58.7 Three months earlier 2003 2004 2005 46.3 66.0 58.3 39.3 61.3 59.0 42.0 65.0 52.0 36.0 68.3 47.3 38.0 66.7 51.8 46.3 62.3 57.0 55.0 57.7 57.0 54.0 56.3 55.0 58.0 56.3 55.3 61.7 57.7 70.0 56.7 62.7 64.3 Six months earlier 2003 2004 2005 41.3 68.3 62.0 37.3 73.3 60.0 39.0 68.0 60.7 36.7 77.0 52.3 33.0 72.0 52.7 38.3 65.3 55.0 42.7 67.3 57.0 45.3 67.0 54.3 50.0 62.0 54.7 60.7 61.3 65.7 58.7 63.7 64.0 NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 10 Table 7 CAPACITY UTILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 19722004 ave. 198889 high 1990-91 low 199495 high 2004 Q4 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3r 2005 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 100.00 81.0 85.1 78.6 85.0 79.4 79.9 79.9 79.7 80.2 80.2 78.9 79.5 84.35 80.13 79.8 79.6 85.5 85.5 77.1 76.9 84.5 84.6 78.2 77.8 78.7 78.3 78.5 78.1 78.5 78.1 78.6 78.2 78.8 78.4 78.1 77.7 79.0 78.7 321 327 331 332 333 334 45.97 1.58 2.17 2.40 6.19 5.56 9.13 78.1 80.1 79.4 80.4 77.1 78.7 78.6 84.6 88.5 85.2 94.9 81.7 85.3 81.5 73.4 73.1 71.9 74.6 72.6 73.9 75.9 84.1 88.2 84.3 94.8 85.1 87.5 83.7 76.3 81.0 82.4 85.0 73.9 78.3 72.9 76.9 81.7 81.3 83.0 74.2 79.0 75.1 76.6 80.6 81.0 79.1 74.3 79.4 75.4 77.1 80.7 80.8 79.8 74.6 79.8 76.5 76.8 80.6 80.6 76.9 74.5 80.6 76.0 77.5 80.0 80.5 79.8 74.7 79.1 76.7 77.1 81.6 81.3 82.6 74.8 79.8 76.9 78.5 82.4 82.6 82.3 76.1 79.6 77.2 335 3361-- 3 2.09 7.32 83.2 77.5 89.0 89.3 77.0 56.0 93.0 88.9 81.1 80.5 81.7 80.7 82.3 79.1 84.9 80.7 83.9 78.5 84.9 81.0 86.0 82.6 88.1 81.8 3364-- 9 337 339 4.31 1.82 3.39 72.6 78.7 76.6 87.3 82.2 82.4 81.3 67.9 77.4 68.7 83.4 81.3 65.2 75.1 76.7 66.6 75.1 77.5 68.8 73.5 77.3 65.8 73.8 78.2 69.2 73.3 77.4 69.6 73.5 78.5 58.5 74.5 78.8 70.2 73.6 79.9 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.17 11.08 1.25 .93 2.63 2.29 1.79 10.81 3.39 81.7 81.8 82.8 79.3 87.8 84.0 85.9 78.3 83.5 86.9 85.9 91.5 84.2 93.6 91.9 89.0 85.0 89.5 81.5 81.1 77.6 77.2 85.6 83.0 83.0 80.0 76.2 85.3 84.1 91.2 88.2 91.5 86.3 90.6 81.1 92.4 79.9 79.4 75.1 72.9 85.5 74.9 93.4 77.4 85.0 80.1 79.8 75.8 73.5 86.0 75.6 93.4 77.1 85.5 80.1 80.4 74.9 74.0 84.2 75.5 93.8 76.8 85.3 79.5 80.6 76.9 77.6 83.1 76.5 89.9 74.7 86.7 80.2 81.0 76.8 76.2 83.3 76.6 92.6 76.5 85.4 79.8 80.3 76.9 77.2 83.0 76.3 91.4 75.8 86.2 78.5 80.6 76.9 79.6 83.0 76.7 85.7 71.8 88.5 79.0 80.6 77.3 78.4 83.4 77.0 84.1 73.5 88.1 1133,5111 4.22 84.7 91.0 80.7 83.2 84.9 86.8 87.1 85.6 85.7 85.7 85.2 85.9 21 2211,2 6.78 8.87 87.3 86.8 86.1 92.7 83.6 84.1 89.0 93.7 88.3 84.4 89.4 83.9 89.6 85.2 86.1 87.2 89.1 88.0 88.5 87.2 80.9 86.4 80.4 84.8 3341 3342 5.94 1.03 1.78 78.2 78.2 76.0 80.9 80.2 80.7 74.0 67.4 73.4 86.1 84.2 85.9 72.8 76.3 58.6 75.3 77.3 62.1 74.7 78.6 64.0 75.4 78.6 68.5 74.8 78.8 67.7 75.6 78.5 68.5 75.8 78.4 69.2 75.8 78.3 71.1 334412-- 9 3.13 80.6 82.7 79.0 91.1 79.4 81.7 78.9 77.8 77.1 78.1 78.2 77.2 94.06 78.41 81.2 79.9 85.5 86.0 78.8 77.3 85.0 84.4 79.8 78.6 80.2 79.0 80.3 78.9 80.1 78.9 80.6 79.0 80.6 79.2 79.2 78.4 79.9 79.5 9.99 47.75 42.26 86.4 82.2 77.9 88.3 86.7 82.8 84.3 77.8 77.0 89.4 88.1 80.5 87.8 81.3 75.3 88.5 81.5 76.1 88.0 81.3 76.4 84.1 81.7 76.8 87.5 81.6 76.8 86.6 81.7 77.1 78.1 81.6 76.4 78.7 81.7 77.8 2004 proportion Item Total industry Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computer and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. See note on cover page. Table 8 INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY Percent change Item 197279 Average annual rate 1980198988 94 19952005 Fourth quarter to fourth quarter 2002 2003 2004 2005p 2005 Q1 Annual rate Q2 Q3 Q4 Monthly rate 2005 Oct. Total industry 3.0 1.9 2.2 3.5 .7 -.2 .6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 .1 Manufacturing1 3.2 2.2 2.5 4.0 .4 -.1 .5 2.1 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 .2 Mining Utilities .7 4.3 .1 2.1 -.9 1.6 -.6 2.3 -1.3 4.5 -1.0 3.1 -.6 2.6 -.6 .0 -1.0 .7 -.7 .0 -.4 -.4 -.2 -.4 .0 .0 18.5 17.0 15.8 28.5 9.5 8.0 6.8 20.8 16.0 20.2 23.0 24.3 1.8 2.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 -.2 -.5 .1 .6 .5 .6 .7 .7 .1 1.7 3.1 3.7 .3 1.4 3.3 -.3 2.6 2.5 -.5 4.4 3.4 -1.0 .9 .6 -2.1 -.1 .6 -1.1 .9 .8 -.9 2.5 1.2 -1.3 2.1 1.1 -1.0 2.4 1.2 -.7 2.6 1.3 -.6 2.8 1.3 .0 .2 .1 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing1 ex. selected high-technology industries STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished p Preliminary. 1. See note on cover page. 11 Table 9 GROSS VALUE OF FINAL PRODUCTS AND NONINDUSTRIAL SUPPLIES Billions of 2000 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 2000 2004 2004 Q3 Q4 2005 Q1 Q2 Q3r 2005 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 2,815.1 2,877.6 2,883.6 2,920.6 2,951.0 2,967.7 2,981.2 2,986.5 2,994.3 2,962.7 2,993.0 2,114.0 1,480.7 471.7 279.5 192.1 1,009.1 2,174.0 1,558.7 524.4 328.8 195.9 1,035.4 2,176.6 1,551.7 518.0 323.1 195.1 1,034.4 2,206.9 1,569.2 527.0 331.8 195.4 1,043.4 2,233.6 1,581.5 530.2 334.5 196.1 1,052.3 2,244.5 1,583.6 526.3 330.3 196.3 1,057.7 2,258.4 1,594.4 540.0 342.6 197.6 1,056.4 2,262.5 1,589.7 525.2 329.5 195.9 1,064.6 2,269.4 1,597.2 541.5 344.4 197.5 1,057.7 2,243.1 1,596.3 553.2 354.0 199.6 1,046.9 2,272.0 1,589.7 549.1 349.9 199.5 1,044.1 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 633.2 616.9 558.7 58.1 616.3 601.8 530.1 71.0 626.6 612.2 539.4 72.0 639.8 624.5 549.9 73.7 655.1 639.1 562.5 75.7 664.4 648.9 570.2 77.6 667.3 650.9 571.0 78.6 677.2 661.3 581.3 79.0 676.2 660.3 579.8 79.2 648.6 631.2 552.0 77.5 687.6 670.1 590.1 79.2 Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 701.2 198.0 503.2 136.0 703.7 198.0 505.7 148.5 707.2 199.8 507.3 147.4 713.9 200.7 513.2 151.2 717.6 201.2 516.5 149.9 723.5 203.2 520.3 153.0 723.2 205.5 517.5 149.5 724.3 203.6 520.7 152.5 725.2 205.2 519.9 151.0 719.9 207.7 511.9 145.0 721.5 210.3 510.9 141.0 It Item Final products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable r Revised. p Preliminary. Table 10 GROSS-VALUE-WEIGHTED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted It Item 2004 gross value1 Finished Semifinished Primary Crude Fourth quarter to fourth quarter 2002 2003 2004 2004 Q4 1.3 4.7 3.2 -.5 3.0 1.6 -.2 -1.6 4.8 5.0 2.8 3.7 5.7 5.0 2.5 2.9 1,841.4 1,665.6 949.1 405.4 Annual rate 2005 Q1 Q2 5.9 4.2 -1.0 .3 1.9 3.5 -2.4 -4.1 Monthly rate Q3r 2005 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 3.7 7.2 -5.3 -20.5 .0 .3 -.7 -1.1 .6 .3 -.4 -2.0 -.7 .6 -2.4 -10.1 1.8 .5 -.2 1.0 Oct. ’04 to Oct. ’05 4.6 4.9 -3.4 -11.9 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Billions of 2000 dollars. Table 11 ELECTRIC 2002 = 100 POWER USE Item 1997 billion kWh 2005 Apr. Seasonally adjusted May June Julyr Aug.r Sept.p 2005 Apr. Not seasonally adjusted May June Julyr Aug.r Sept.p Total Industry 983.9 98.8 97.1 96.5 98.0 97.7 96.2 98.4 97.2 97.9 98.7 100.0 99.3 Manufacturing1 Durable Nondurable 890.9 386.5 498.4 99.0 100.5 97.8 97.0 97.9 96.3 96.4 97.7 95.5 97.9 99.4 96.8 97.6 99.3 96.3 96.6 99.6 94.2 98.7 100.8 97.1 97.1 98.7 96.0 97.9 100.1 96.2 98.7 100.8 97.0 100.2 102.2 98.5 99.9 102.7 97.6 93.0 95.1 98.9 98.1 99.5 97.9 89.3 94.7 97.8 97.6 97.5 96.4 89.7 962.6 913.5 70.4 99.0 98.6 101.6 97.6 96.8 103.1 96.8 96.7 100.1 98.1 97.5 100.6 97.7 97.7 95.6 96.2 96.2 95.0 98.3 98.3 99.3 97.7 96.7 102.4 99.1 97.9 98.6 99.8 98.4 101.1 101.2 100.2 97.0 99.6 99.8 93.0 Mining Total ex. nuclear nondefense Utility sales to industry Industrial generation r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. See note on cover page. NOTE. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/download.htm. 12 Table 12 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)1 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1.9 2.1 -.3 .5 -.3 -.6 .5 .4 -.8 1.2 .9 .5 .2 -.6 .2 1.2 .6 -.2 .0 .6 .8 .5 .1 .2 .7 .6 .4 .0 -.3 .5 1.6 .3 -.6 .6 .6 1.1 .1 .5 -.2 .7 1.5 -.2 .4 .2 .3 .9 -.1 -.4 .4 1.5 .3 .4 .3 .5 .5 .5 .1 1.0 .9 .5 4.3 12.4 1.1 2.3 5.4 9.4 6.4 .6 -2.4 7.0 14.7 2.9 -.6 1.7 7.1 10.9 .4 2.5 4.5 9.9 2.6 9.0 1.3 1.0 5.1 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 .1 .3 -.6 -.5 -.5 .3 -.5 .9 -.7 .7 .3 .3 .5 -.5 .7 .5 -.1 .0 .2 .7 .0 -.7 .1 1.0 .4 .2 .0 .3 1.0 .0 .2 -.9 -.1 .0 .8 .5 .9 .3 .2 -.5 -.3 -.3 .2 .9 .2 .6 -.1 -.7 -.2 .7 .2 .3 -1.2 -.1 .4 .4 .7 -.7 -.3 .1 3.4 1.5 2.9 -7.6 -.3 3.2 -1.9 2.9 2.7 6.9 2.1 -2.5 1.3 5.7 2.8 3.3 1.8 -5.9 1.0 3.9 5.0 .9 .9 -1.5 2.9 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 .5 .5 .3 -.8 .2 .3 .0 .0 1.5 1.2 .0 1.0 .2 -.2 .8 .3 .5 .0 .9 -.1 -.4 .6 .2 .7 .6 .3 .7 .3 .8 .5 .3 .2 -.4 -.2 .5 .0 .5 1.4 .7 1.2 .5 .2 .4 .6 .9 .7 .9 -.2 .0 .7 .4 .6 .3 1.0 .9 .5 1.1 .4 .7 .4 3.7 5.3 5.3 1.8 8.5 1.0 7.5 1.1 8.4 5.7 2.4 5.3 3.7 5.1 8.9 6.1 7.9 3.5 6.2 10.6 3.3 5.4 4.8 4.2 7.3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .4 .5 .2 -.8 .6 .1 .5 .4 -.7 -.1 .1 .2 .4 -.3 .9 .5 .2 .7 -.1 .4 .6 .8 .3 -.8 .4 -.5 -.1 .1 -.5 .9 -.3 .7 -.3 -.4 -.3 2.2 .5 -.3 -.3 .1 -.2 -.4 .4 -.4 .0 .7 1.3 -.3 -.5 -.4 -.1 .6 .0 -.4 .3 .3 .9 -.4 .0 -.5 4.4 4.1 5.4 -6.6 2.9 3.1 4.2 5.2 -4.9 6.1 3.6 4.3 -.9 -5.1 1.7 5.6 7.7 -1.3 -4.5 -1.6 5.9 4.5 4.3 -3.5 .1 2003 2004 2005 .5 .4 .2 .0 .8 .4 -.2 -.3 .0 -.8 .8 -.1 -.1 .9 .2 .3 -.6 .8 .5 .6 .0 .1 .3 .2 .7 -.2 -1.5 .1 .7 .9 .9 .2 .2 .7 .8 5.3 3.8 -3.3 5.2 1.6 3.6 2.6 .9 5.1 4.2 .6 4.1 IP (2002=100) 2003 2004 2005 100.5 102.7 106.9 100.6 103.5 107.4 100.4 103.2 107.3 99.6 104.0 107.2 99.5 105.0 107.4 99.8 104.4 108.3 100.3 105.0 108.3 100.4 105.3 108.5 101.0 105.1 106.9 101.1 105.8 107.9 102.0 106.0 102.3 106.7 100.5 103.1 107.2 99.7 104.4 107.6 100.5 105.1 107.9 101.8 106.2 100.6 104.7 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2003 2004 2005 133.1 133.0 134.0 133.1 133.0 134.2 133.0 133.0 134.3 133.0 133.1 134.5 133.0 133.1 134.7 132.9 133.2 134.9 132.9 133.3 135.1 132.9 133.4 135.3 132.9 133.5 135.5 132.9 133.6 135.7 132.9 133.7 132.9 133.9 133.1 133.0 134.2 133.0 133.1 134.7 132.9 133.4 135.3 132.9 133.7 133.0 133.3 Utilization (percent) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 72.0 79.5 79.9 79.7 79.0 71.5 79.7 80.1 79.0 79.8 72.1 80.0 80.0 78.4 79.8 72.9 80.4 79.7 78.3 80.1 73.4 80.7 79.6 78.4 80.6 73.8 80.8 79.4 78.0 80.8 74.9 80.9 78.7 78.4 81.2 75.7 80.9 78.9 78.2 81.6 76.8 80.6 79.1 78.3 81.7 77.5 80.3 78.6 78.5 82.8 77.6 80.5 78.8 78.7 83.1 77.9 80.3 79.4 79.3 83.4 71.8 79.7 80.0 79.0 79.6 73.4 80.7 79.6 78.2 80.5 75.8 80.8 78.9 78.3 81.5 77.7 80.4 78.9 78.9 83.1 74.7 80.4 79.4 78.6 81.2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.4 85.1 82.4 79.7 79.1 83.6 84.6 82.9 79.1 79.5 83.7 84.7 83.2 78.6 80.0 84.1 84.5 83.0 78.6 80.4 84.0 83.8 82.9 79.3 80.6 84.2 83.6 82.9 80.0 80.5 84.3 82.7 82.7 79.9 81.0 84.6 83.3 82.8 79.9 80.4 84.3 82.8 82.8 80.5 80.5 84.7 82.6 82.0 80.2 80.9 84.8 82.7 80.9 80.0 81.0 85.0 83.1 80.2 79.7 81.0 83.6 84.8 82.8 79.1 79.6 84.1 84.0 82.9 79.3 80.5 84.4 82.9 82.7 80.1 80.6 84.8 82.8 81.1 80.0 81.0 84.2 83.6 82.4 79.6 80.4 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 81.2 82.5 85.0 82.1 83.3 81.4 82.3 84.7 83.0 83.9 81.3 83.0 84.5 82.5 84.1 81.4 83.2 84.1 82.9 83.6 81.0 83.5 83.9 83.1 83.6 81.1 83.8 83.8 83.5 83.5 81.2 83.8 83.1 83.0 83.5 81.1 83.9 83.9 83.2 84.0 81.4 83.8 83.8 83.3 84.3 81.8 84.2 83.3 82.9 84.3 82.0 84.5 83.2 83.3 84.6 82.3 85.0 83.2 83.5 84.4 81.3 82.6 84.7 82.5 83.7 81.1 83.5 83.9 83.2 83.6 81.2 83.8 83.6 83.1 83.9 82.0 84.6 83.2 83.3 84.4 81.4 83.6 83.9 83.0 83.9 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 84.2 82.0 82.5 79.2 74.3 83.7 82.0 82.5 78.4 74.1 83.3 81.8 82.5 77.9 74.7 83.1 81.7 82.7 77.6 74.9 83.1 82.0 82.7 76.9 75.2 82.2 81.7 82.5 76.3 75.8 81.5 81.9 82.0 75.9 75.6 82.8 82.0 81.4 75.4 75.6 82.3 81.3 81.5 75.0 75.6 82.5 82.1 80.9 74.5 75.3 82.1 82.2 80.7 74.0 75.5 81.9 82.6 80.1 73.9 75.2 83.7 81.9 82.5 78.5 74.4 82.8 81.8 82.6 76.9 75.3 82.2 81.7 81.6 75.4 75.6 82.2 82.3 80.6 74.2 75.3 82.7 81.9 81.8 76.3 75.1 2003 2004 2005 75.5 77.2 79.8 75.6 77.8 80.0 75.4 77.6 79.9 74.9 78.1 79.7 74.9 78.8 79.8 75.1 78.4 80.3 75.4 78.8 80.2 75.5 79.0 80.2 76.0 78.7 78.9 76.1 79.2 79.5 76.8 79.3 76.9 79.7 75.5 77.5 79.9 74.9 78.4 79.9 75.6 78.8 79.7 76.6 79.4 75.7 78.6 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 13 Table 13 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change) 2 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 2.4 1.9 -.4 1.2 -.3 -.1 1.1 -.3 -.7 1.4 1.0 .5 .8 -.3 .1 1.1 .5 -.3 .4 .5 1.3 .2 .1 .2 .7 .8 .4 .1 -.4 .4 1.5 .5 -.6 .5 .7 .7 .2 .6 .3 .5 1.9 -.2 .1 .2 .6 1.2 .4 -.3 .3 1.6 .3 .3 .6 .5 .6 .2 .3 .4 .9 .6 8.7 12.8 .1 4.4 6.0 12.2 6.3 1.1 -.1 6.7 15.4 3.7 .1 2.5 6.9 12.5 2.8 2.3 4.9 11.3 4.6 9.9 1.8 2.2 5.5 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 -.2 .8 -.2 -.8 -.5 .1 -1.0 1.4 -.7 .9 .3 -.1 .4 -.6 .9 .8 .1 -.1 .3 .5 -.1 -.8 .0 .7 .7 .1 .1 .2 1.1 .3 .1 -1.1 -.2 .3 .8 .1 .9 .3 .3 -.4 .3 -.3 .0 1.0 .0 .7 -.2 -.8 -.2 .6 .3 .2 -1.1 -.2 .4 .4 .2 -.8 -.1 -.1 2.4 1.7 4.4 -9.1 .7 4.1 -3.4 2.7 2.2 7.9 1.4 -3.0 .6 7.4 3.9 5.0 .5 -6.5 1.8 2.7 5.2 .8 .7 -2.0 3.7 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1.0 .3 .4 -1.0 .2 .1 .1 -.1 1.5 1.4 -.1 1.3 .3 -.3 1.2 .5 .8 -.1 1.2 -.3 -.1 .7 .0 .7 .8 -.1 .3 .4 1.0 .7 .3 .5 -.6 .2 .3 -.1 .7 1.2 .7 1.5 .6 .3 .9 .7 .9 .8 1.0 -.1 .0 .7 .4 .8 .1 1.0 1.2 .6 1.1 .4 .9 .5 4.6 5.2 5.7 .8 10.1 1.5 9.5 .6 9.5 6.8 1.6 6.2 3.0 7.5 9.9 6.9 9.6 4.4 6.5 11.4 3.5 6.0 5.3 4.6 8.5 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .7 .3 .3 -.8 .5 .1 .8 .3 -.7 -.1 -.1 -.1 .6 -.4 .8 .6 .4 .7 -.1 .1 .5 1.0 .0 -.8 .5 -.6 -.2 .2 -.6 1.0 -.4 .5 -.1 -.2 -.4 2.6 .7 -.7 -.7 .3 -.3 -.4 .4 -.3 .0 1.0 1.5 -.3 -.6 -.6 .1 .7 -.3 -.2 .3 .5 .8 -.7 .3 -.5 6.0 4.6 6.1 -7.5 3.5 2.5 4.8 5.0 -5.1 5.3 3.9 4.0 -1.2 -5.6 2.2 7.8 9.3 -2.9 -4.2 -2.1 6.7 5.2 4.6 -4.2 .1 2003 2004 2005 .4 .3 .5 -.2 .9 .5 .2 .2 -.3 -.9 .8 .0 -.1 .8 .4 .6 -.6 .3 .3 .8 .1 -.1 .7 .4 .9 -.4 -.7 .1 .8 1.4 1.1 .0 .1 .5 .3 5.7 4.5 -2.7 6.6 1.3 3.3 4.1 1.9 6.1 4.0 .5 4.8 IP (2002=100) 2003 2004 2005 100.3 102.6 108.1 100.1 103.6 108.6 100.3 103.7 108.2 99.5 104.6 108.3 99.4 105.5 108.7 99.9 104.9 109.0 100.2 105.7 109.1 100.1 106.4 109.6 101.0 106.0 108.8 101.1 106.9 110.4 102.3 106.9 102.3 107.5 100.3 103.3 108.3 99.6 105.0 108.6 100.4 106.1 109.2 101.9 107.1 100.5 105.4 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2003 2004 2005 136.4 136.3 137.4 136.4 136.3 137.6 136.4 136.3 137.8 136.4 136.4 138.1 136.4 136.4 138.3 136.4 136.5 138.6 136.4 136.5 138.8 136.4 136.6 139.1 136.4 136.7 139.3 136.4 136.9 139.6 136.3 137.0 136.3 137.2 136.4 136.3 137.6 136.4 136.4 138.3 136.4 136.6 139.1 136.3 137.0 136.4 136.6 Utilization (percent) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 70.0 78.1 79.1 78.9 78.9 69.9 78.9 78.6 78.2 79.8 70.5 79.1 79.0 77.9 79.7 71.3 79.4 78.6 78.1 79.9 72.2 79.5 78.5 78.2 80.4 72.7 79.6 78.4 77.8 80.5 73.8 79.8 77.7 78.1 80.9 74.3 79.8 78.0 78.2 81.1 75.7 79.4 77.9 78.3 81.5 76.5 79.5 77.6 78.4 82.6 76.7 79.6 77.9 78.7 83.0 76.8 79.6 78.1 79.2 83.4 70.1 78.7 78.9 78.4 79.5 72.1 79.5 78.5 78.0 80.3 74.6 79.7 77.9 78.2 81.2 76.7 79.6 77.9 78.8 83.0 73.4 79.4 78.3 78.3 81.0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.2 85.5 81.5 78.4 78.1 83.2 84.5 82.4 77.7 78.6 83.4 84.3 82.6 77.1 79.2 84.0 84.2 82.3 77.3 79.4 83.9 83.3 82.1 77.7 79.8 84.0 83.2 82.2 78.5 79.8 84.0 82.1 81.8 78.6 80.3 84.0 82.7 81.9 78.7 79.8 84.2 82.2 81.7 79.4 79.7 84.7 81.9 81.0 79.1 80.0 84.8 81.9 79.9 78.9 80.1 85.0 81.8 79.2 78.7 79.8 83.3 84.8 82.2 77.7 78.6 84.0 83.6 82.2 77.8 79.7 84.1 82.4 81.8 78.9 79.9 84.8 81.9 80.0 78.9 79.9 84.0 83.1 81.6 78.3 79.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 80.5 81.3 84.5 80.8 82.2 80.4 81.1 84.1 81.6 82.8 80.2 82.0 83.9 81.0 83.3 80.4 82.4 83.4 81.5 82.5 80.2 82.8 83.0 81.7 82.7 80.0 82.8 82.9 82.1 82.7 80.1 82.9 82.0 81.9 82.4 79.9 83.2 82.6 82.1 83.1 80.3 83.1 82.9 82.2 83.3 80.7 83.6 82.4 81.8 83.3 80.9 84.0 82.1 82.1 83.6 81.2 84.5 82.0 82.4 83.4 80.4 81.4 84.1 81.1 82.8 80.2 82.6 83.1 81.8 82.6 80.1 83.1 82.5 82.1 83.0 81.0 84.0 82.2 82.1 83.4 80.4 82.8 83.0 81.8 83.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 83.4 80.9 81.3 77.0 72.5 82.9 81.1 81.2 76.2 72.3 82.2 80.7 81.4 75.7 72.9 82.1 80.6 81.6 75.4 73.0 81.9 81.1 81.2 74.6 73.3 80.9 80.5 81.0 74.0 74.0 80.1 80.6 80.6 73.7 73.7 81.7 80.8 79.8 73.1 73.9 81.0 80.1 79.8 72.7 73.9 81.4 80.9 79.2 72.2 73.4 81.1 81.2 78.7 72.0 73.6 81.1 81.5 77.8 72.1 73.3 82.8 80.9 81.3 76.3 72.6 81.7 80.7 81.3 74.7 73.4 80.9 80.5 80.0 73.2 73.8 81.2 81.2 78.6 72.1 73.4 81.7 80.8 80.3 74.1 73.3 2003 2004 2005 73.5 75.3 78.6 73.4 76.0 78.9 73.5 76.1 78.5 72.9 76.7 78.4 72.8 77.3 78.6 73.2 76.9 78.7 73.4 77.4 78.6 73.4 77.9 78.8 74.0 77.5 78.1 74.1 78.1 79.0 75.0 78.0 75.1 78.3 73.5 75.8 78.7 73.0 77.0 78.5 73.6 77.6 78.5 74.7 78.2 73.7 77.1 1. See note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 14 Table 14 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change) 1 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1.9 2.0 -.3 .6 -.5 -.7 .3 .5 -.8 1.2 .8 .4 .2 -.7 .2 1.1 .5 .0 .0 .5 .7 .4 .1 .1 .6 .5 .2 .0 -.2 .4 1.5 .2 -.5 .3 .5 1.2 .0 .5 -.2 .6 1.2 -.2 .5 .2 .2 .8 -.2 -.4 .4 1.4 .2 .3 .3 .4 .5 .4 .1 1.1 .8 .4 3.6 11.4 .9 2.3 4.5 8.5 5.0 1.2 -2.7 6.3 13.8 1.6 -.2 .6 6.0 9.6 -.3 2.6 4.0 9.1 1.8 7.9 1.0 .9 4.2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 .0 .3 -.7 -.5 -.8 .3 -.5 .8 -.8 .7 .2 .4 .4 -.6 .7 .4 -.1 -.1 .2 .6 -.1 -.7 .0 1.0 .3 .2 .0 .2 1.0 -.2 .1 -1.1 -.2 .0 .7 .5 .9 .3 .1 -.5 -.4 -.4 .1 .9 .1 .6 -.2 -.8 -.2 .6 .2 .3 -1.2 -.2 .3 .4 .7 -.8 -.5 .0 3.1 1.8 2.2 -8.1 -1.9 2.6 -2.1 2.4 2.2 6.1 1.5 -3.3 1.0 5.4 1.7 2.9 1.0 -6.5 .3 3.0 4.4 .6 .3 -2.0 1.9 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 .5 .4 .2 -1.0 -.1 .3 -.1 -.2 1.4 .8 .0 .8 -.1 -.4 .5 .2 .3 -.2 .8 -.4 -.4 .4 .0 .5 .3 .2 .6 .1 .7 .3 .3 .1 -.5 -.5 .3 -.1 .3 1.2 .4 1.0 .4 .0 .1 .4 .8 .6 .7 -.4 -.2 .6 .3 .4 .1 .8 .7 .5 .9 .2 .4 .1 3.0 4.2 3.0 -.3 4.9 .4 5.3 -1.4 6.1 2.1 1.6 3.4 1.3 2.1 6.1 5.2 5.5 .5 3.5 8.3 2.5 4.0 2.4 1.7 4.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .1 .2 -.3 -.8 .8 .0 .2 .0 -.6 -.1 -.1 -.1 .1 -.3 .9 .2 -.2 .4 .0 .4 .5 .6 -.1 -.7 .4 -.9 -.4 .0 -.4 .9 -.8 .3 -.5 -.2 -.3 2.0 .4 -.5 -.3 -.1 -.6 -.5 .3 -.4 -.1 .5 1.2 -.5 -.5 -.5 -.3 .3 -.2 -.5 .2 .1 .6 -.5 .0 -.6 1.6 .9 .7 -6.7 3.4 1.0 .3 1.7 -4.0 6.2 -.3 1.2 -3.0 -4.0 1.3 2.3 5.6 -2.9 -4.8 -2.4 3.1 1.2 1.1 -4.1 .3 2003 2004 2005 .4 .3 .0 -.2 .7 .3 -.3 -.4 -.1 -.8 .8 -.2 -.1 .9 .1 .2 -.7 .8 .4 .5 -.1 .0 .2 .0 .6 -.3 -1.7 .0 .8 .9 .9 .2 .2 .6 -.6 4.3 2.4 -4.3 4.6 .8 2.6 1.6 -.4 4.4 3.8 -.3 3.2 IP (2002=100) 2003 2004 2005 100.1 101.2 104.5 99.9 101.9 104.9 99.7 101.6 104.8 98.8 102.4 104.6 98.7 103.3 104.7 98.9 102.6 105.5 99.3 103.1 105.4 99.2 103.3 105.4 99.9 103.0 103.7 99.9 103.8 104.6 100.8 104.0 100.9 104.6 99.9 101.6 104.7 98.8 102.7 104.9 99.5 103.1 104.8 100.5 104.1 99.7 102.9 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2003 2004 2005 130.6 130.1 130.5 130.5 130.1 130.5 130.4 130.1 130.6 130.3 130.1 130.6 130.2 130.2 130.7 130.2 130.2 130.7 130.1 130.2 130.8 130.1 130.3 130.8 130.1 130.3 130.9 130.1 130.4 130.9 130.1 130.4 130.1 130.4 130.5 130.1 130.5 130.3 130.2 130.7 130.1 130.3 130.8 130.1 130.4 130.2 130.2 Utilization (percent) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 71.9 79.2 79.6 80.1 79.2 71.4 79.4 79.9 79.3 80.0 71.9 79.7 79.8 78.7 80.1 72.7 80.1 79.7 78.7 80.4 73.3 80.3 79.6 78.7 80.8 73.6 80.4 79.4 78.5 81.1 74.7 80.5 78.9 78.7 81.4 75.6 80.4 79.1 78.4 81.9 76.6 80.1 79.3 78.5 81.9 77.2 79.9 78.9 78.7 83.1 77.4 80.1 79.0 79.0 83.4 77.7 80.0 79.7 79.6 83.7 71.7 79.5 79.8 79.4 79.8 73.2 80.3 79.6 78.6 80.8 75.6 80.4 79.1 78.5 81.7 77.4 80.0 79.2 79.1 83.4 74.5 80.0 79.4 78.9 81.4 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.7 85.5 82.7 80.1 79.0 84.0 85.0 83.2 79.3 79.5 84.1 85.2 83.5 78.8 80.0 84.4 84.9 83.3 78.8 80.5 84.3 84.2 83.2 79.5 80.6 84.5 84.1 83.3 80.2 80.4 84.5 83.0 83.0 80.1 81.0 84.9 83.6 83.1 80.1 80.5 84.5 83.2 83.1 80.7 80.5 84.9 82.9 82.4 80.5 80.9 85.0 83.0 81.2 80.2 81.1 85.3 83.4 80.5 79.7 81.0 83.9 85.2 83.1 79.4 79.5 84.4 84.4 83.2 79.5 80.5 84.6 83.3 83.1 80.3 80.6 85.1 83.1 81.4 80.1 81.0 84.5 84.0 82.7 79.8 80.4 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 81.3 82.6 85.0 82.1 83.4 81.5 82.5 84.6 83.1 83.8 81.3 83.1 84.4 82.6 84.0 81.5 83.2 84.0 83.1 83.4 81.0 83.5 83.8 83.3 83.4 81.2 83.9 83.7 83.7 83.3 81.3 83.8 83.1 83.1 83.2 81.2 83.9 83.8 83.3 83.8 81.4 83.8 83.7 83.5 84.1 81.9 84.2 83.2 83.1 84.3 82.1 84.4 83.1 83.5 84.6 82.4 85.0 83.1 83.7 84.4 81.4 82.7 84.6 82.6 83.7 81.2 83.5 83.8 83.4 83.4 81.3 83.8 83.5 83.3 83.7 82.1 84.5 83.1 83.4 84.5 81.5 83.6 83.8 83.2 83.8 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 84.2 82.2 81.9 78.9 75.6 83.9 82.1 81.8 78.4 75.4 83.6 81.9 81.8 78.0 76.1 83.6 81.5 82.0 78.0 76.3 83.7 81.9 81.8 77.3 76.6 82.8 81.4 81.7 76.9 77.3 81.9 81.4 81.2 76.7 77.0 83.3 81.6 80.7 76.4 77.0 82.6 81.0 80.9 76.0 76.9 82.8 81.9 80.4 75.5 76.6 82.3 82.0 80.2 75.1 76.8 82.2 82.3 79.7 75.0 76.3 83.9 82.1 81.8 78.4 75.7 83.4 81.6 81.9 77.4 76.7 82.6 81.4 80.9 76.4 77.0 82.5 82.1 80.1 75.2 76.6 83.1 81.8 81.2 76.9 76.5 2003 2004 2005 76.7 77.8 80.1 76.6 78.4 80.3 76.4 78.1 80.3 75.8 78.7 80.1 75.8 79.3 80.1 76.0 78.8 80.7 76.3 79.2 80.6 76.3 79.3 80.6 76.8 79.0 79.2 76.8 79.6 79.9 77.5 79.7 77.6 80.2 76.6 78.1 80.2 75.9 78.9 80.3 76.4 79.2 80.1 77.3 79.8 76.5 79.0 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. NOTE. Selected high-- technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 15 Table 15 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change) 2 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 2.4 1.8 -.5 1.3 -.4 -.2 .9 -.3 -.7 1.4 .9 .4 .9 -.3 .1 1.0 .4 -.1 .4 .4 1.3 .1 .1 .1 .7 .7 .3 .1 -.2 .3 1.3 .4 -.4 .2 .5 .9 .1 .6 .2 .3 1.5 -.3 .2 .2 .5 1.1 .4 -.3 .3 1.5 .2 .3 .6 .4 .5 .2 .3 .4 .8 .5 7.9 11.4 -.2 4.7 4.8 11.2 4.4 1.8 -.3 5.8 14.2 2.0 .7 1.2 5.5 10.9 1.9 2.4 4.2 10.4 3.6 8.4 1.4 2.2 4.6 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 -.2 .9 -.3 -.8 -.8 .1 -1.0 1.4 -.8 .9 .2 .0 .3 -.7 .9 .7 .0 -.2 .3 .4 -.2 -.8 .0 .7 .6 .0 .1 .2 1.1 .1 .0 -1.3 -.2 .3 .7 .1 .9 .3 .2 -.5 .3 -.3 -.1 1.1 -.1 .6 -.3 -.8 -.2 .4 .3 .1 -1.2 -.3 .3 .4 .1 -.8 -.3 -.2 2.0 2.1 3.7 -9.8 -1.1 3.4 -3.7 2.1 1.5 6.9 .6 -4.0 .2 7.1 2.5 4.7 -.4 -7.2 1.0 1.5 4.4 .4 .0 -2.6 2.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1.0 .1 .2 -1.2 -.2 .0 .0 -.3 1.3 1.0 -.2 1.1 -.1 -.5 .9 .5 .5 -.4 1.0 -.7 -.1 .6 -.3 .4 .5 -.2 .2 .2 .8 .4 .2 .3 -.8 -.1 .1 -.2 .5 .9 .4 1.3 .5 .0 .5 .5 .7 .7 .8 -.4 -.4 .5 .3 .6 -.1 .8 .9 .5 .9 .2 .6 .2 3.8 3.9 2.9 -1.8 6.0 .8 7.0 -2.4 6.9 2.6 .5 4.0 .1 4.1 6.7 5.8 6.8 .9 3.3 8.8 2.6 4.4 2.5 1.5 4.9 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .4 -.1 -.3 -.7 .7 -.1 .5 -.1 -.6 -.1 -.3 -.5 .3 -.4 .9 .4 -.1 .4 .1 .1 .4 .8 -.5 -.8 .5 -1.1 -.7 .0 -.4 1.0 -.9 .0 -.3 .0 -.4 2.4 .7 -.9 -.7 .1 -.7 -.6 .3 -.3 -.1 .7 1.4 -.4 -.7 -.7 -.1 .4 -.6 -.2 .1 .2 .4 -.9 .2 -.6 2.8 .8 .6 -7.8 4.2 .1 .3 .8 -4.1 5.3 -.7 .4 -3.7 -4.3 1.7 4.1 7.1 -4.9 -4.5 -3.2 3.5 1.4 .9 -4.9 .3 2003 2004 2005 .3 .1 .3 -.4 .8 .4 .1 .1 -.4 -.9 .9 -.1 -.2 .7 .3 .5 -.7 .2 .1 .8 .0 -.3 .5 .3 .9 -.5 -.9 .0 .9 1.4 1.2 .0 .0 .4 -1.5 4.4 2.8 -3.9 6.0 .3 2.1 2.9 .3 5.3 3.6 -.6 3.8 IP (2002=100) 2003 2004 2005 99.8 100.9 105.2 99.4 101.7 105.6 99.5 101.8 105.2 98.5 102.7 105.1 98.4 103.5 105.4 98.8 102.7 105.7 99.0 103.5 105.6 98.7 104.1 105.9 99.6 103.5 105.0 99.6 104.5 106.4 100.8 104.5 100.8 104.9 99.5 101.5 105.3 98.6 103.0 105.4 99.1 103.7 105.5 100.4 104.6 99.4 103.2 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2003 2004 2005 133.6 133.0 133.2 133.5 133.0 133.3 133.4 133.0 133.4 133.4 133.0 133.5 133.3 133.0 133.5 133.3 133.0 133.6 133.2 133.0 133.7 133.2 133.0 133.8 133.1 133.1 133.8 133.1 133.1 133.9 133.0 133.1 133.0 133.2 133.5 133.0 133.3 133.3 133.0 133.5 133.2 133.0 133.8 133.0 133.1 133.3 133.0 Utilization (percent) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 69.7 77.7 78.6 79.3 79.1 69.6 78.4 78.2 78.6 80.1 70.3 78.6 78.7 78.3 80.0 71.0 78.9 78.5 78.5 80.2 71.9 78.9 78.4 78.5 80.7 72.5 79.0 78.3 78.3 80.8 73.4 79.2 77.8 78.4 81.2 74.1 79.1 78.2 78.5 81.4 75.3 78.7 78.2 78.6 81.7 76.1 78.9 77.8 78.7 82.9 76.3 79.0 78.2 79.0 83.3 76.4 79.1 78.4 79.5 83.7 69.9 78.3 78.5 78.7 79.7 71.8 78.9 78.4 78.5 80.6 74.3 79.0 78.1 78.5 81.4 76.3 79.0 78.1 79.1 83.3 73.0 78.8 78.3 78.7 81.3 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.6 86.0 81.8 78.7 78.0 83.6 85.0 82.8 78.0 78.6 83.8 84.8 82.9 77.3 79.2 84.4 84.7 82.6 77.4 79.4 84.3 83.8 82.5 77.9 79.8 84.3 83.7 82.5 78.6 79.8 84.3 82.5 82.2 78.8 80.3 84.3 83.1 82.3 78.8 79.8 84.5 82.6 82.1 79.6 79.7 85.0 82.2 81.3 79.3 79.9 85.1 82.2 80.2 79.0 80.1 85.4 82.1 79.5 78.7 79.8 83.7 85.3 82.5 78.0 78.6 84.3 84.1 82.5 78.0 79.7 84.4 82.7 82.2 79.1 79.9 85.2 82.2 80.3 79.0 79.9 84.4 83.6 81.9 78.5 79.5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 80.5 81.3 84.4 80.6 82.2 80.4 81.2 84.0 81.6 82.7 80.2 82.0 83.7 80.9 83.1 80.5 82.3 83.2 81.6 82.2 80.3 82.7 82.8 81.8 82.3 80.0 82.7 82.8 82.3 82.3 80.1 82.9 81.9 82.0 82.1 79.9 83.2 82.5 82.2 82.8 80.2 83.0 82.7 82.4 83.1 80.7 83.5 82.2 81.8 83.2 80.9 83.9 81.9 82.3 83.6 81.2 84.4 81.8 82.5 83.4 80.4 81.5 84.0 81.0 82.7 80.2 82.6 82.9 81.9 82.3 80.1 83.0 82.3 82.2 82.6 81.0 83.9 81.9 82.2 83.4 80.4 82.8 82.8 81.8 82.7 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 83.4 81.0 80.6 76.5 73.8 83.1 81.2 80.3 76.0 73.7 82.5 80.6 80.4 75.6 74.3 82.5 80.3 80.6 75.6 74.4 82.5 80.8 80.1 75.0 74.8 81.4 80.1 80.0 74.6 75.5 80.4 79.9 79.6 74.5 75.2 82.1 80.2 78.8 74.0 75.3 81.3 79.6 78.9 73.7 75.3 81.6 80.6 78.4 73.2 74.8 81.3 80.8 77.9 73.1 74.9 81.3 81.0 77.1 73.3 74.5 83.0 80.9 80.4 76.0 73.9 82.1 80.4 80.2 75.0 74.9 81.3 79.9 79.1 74.1 75.3 81.4 80.8 77.8 73.2 74.8 81.9 80.5 79.4 74.6 74.7 2003 2004 2005 74.7 75.9 78.9 74.4 76.5 79.2 74.5 76.6 78.9 73.9 77.2 78.8 73.8 77.8 79.0 74.2 77.3 79.1 74.3 77.8 79.0 74.1 78.2 79.2 74.8 77.8 78.4 74.8 78.5 79.5 75.7 78.5 75.8 78.8 74.6 76.3 79.0 73.9 77.4 78.9 74.4 78.0 78.9 75.4 78.6 74.6 77.6 1. See note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. NOTE. Selected high-- technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 16 EXPLANATORY NOTE The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly indexes on the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. More detailed descriptions of industrial production, capacity utilization, and electric power are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: IA m = IA m–1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2002. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries--logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing--that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 300 individual series based on the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html) . Changes in output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of the statistical tables, see below. Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on electric power use are described below. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a 17 Imp m–1 Im–1p m–1 × Imp m Im–1p m The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 8 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 8/10 percentage point (0.08 x 10% = 0.8%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa). Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 70 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about 85 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 96 percent in the third month, and 97 percent in the fourth month. Data availability by data type is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2004) Month of estimate Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 25 40 51 52 Production-worker hours 45 45 45 45 IP data received 70 85 96 97 IP data estimated 30 15 4 3 NOTE—The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (25 percent out of total of 52 percent). Of the 25 percent, about two-- thirds (17 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of the first month of a quarter. About 3 percent of the source data for monthly IP—all physical product measures—are available too late for direct inclusion in the current index and are incorporated at the time of an annual historical revision. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through September 2005; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 2005. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent during the 1987--2004 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987--2004 period. In most cases (about 86 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. CAPACITY UTILIZATION Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 85 detailed industries (67 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 21 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries account for a bit less than 75 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap_notes.html). Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the 18 individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC (currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the SPC. Perspective. Over the 1972--2004 period, the average total industry utilization rate is 81.0 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate has been 79.8 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. ELECTRIC POWER Coverage. Electric power data for sales by utilities to industry users and for electric power produced by cogenerators (manufacturing and mining firms that produce electricity for their own use or to sell to a utility) are generally collected at the 4-digit NAICS and 3-digit SIC level for mining and manufacturing. Aggregates for 3-digit industries, as well as for total mining, durable, nondurable, total manufacturing and total industrial electric power use, are computed. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. An aggregate showing total industry excluding nuclear nondefense is shown separately because the value-added proportion for the nondefense nuclear material series (part of NAICS 3251) in total IP is considerably less than its share of total electric power use. In addition, aggregates for utility sales to industrial users and industry generation are computed. While only the major aggregates are shown in the release, data for the 3- and 4-digit industries are available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Source Data. Electric power data are collected from a sample of utilities and cogenerators covering all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. The primary criterion for inclusion of a utility in the panel is whether the utility provides electric power to industrial customers. A comparison of Federal Reserve kilowatt-hour aggregates to estimates from the 1997 Census of Manufactures (the most recent available) and recent reporting panel statistics suggests the Federal Reserve data cover about 50 percent of the overall sales to manufacturing in that year. The cogeneration panel covers about 50 percent of cogeneration used directly by manufacturers. In order to provide more complete coverage and correct for any shortcomings of the survey, the series are benchmarked at the 4-digit industry level to the data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufactures through 2002. Methodology. The data we receive from utilities and cogenerators are edited for anomalies and aggregated, using self weights, to the 4-digit NAICS industry levels and above. Where reports are late or unavailable for some reason, responses are estimated. Seasonal Adjustment. Series are seasonally adjusted at the 4-digit NAICS level, with seasonally-adjusted aggregates typically computed as sums of seasonally adjusted components. The seasonal adjustment procedure (Census X-12 program) is used without trading-day adjustments because the reporting periods of the various utilities are not the same. A leap year adjustment is also made where appropriate. REFERENCES AND RELEASE DATES References. The annual revision published in November 2005 will be described in an article published in an upcoming Federal Reserve Bulletin. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67--92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital_stock_doc-latest.pdf. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus 19 a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2005: January 14, February 16, March 16, April 15, May 17, June 15, July 15, August 16, September 14, October 14, November 17, and December 15. 2006: January 17, February 15, March 17, April 14, May 16, June 15, July 17, August 16, September 15, October 17, November 16, and December 15.
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