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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EST) November 14, 2003 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in October, and output over the previous three months was revised up slightly. At 111.8 percent of its 1997 average, the October index was 0.6 percent higher than its year-ago level. Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in October; a large decline in the production of motor vehicles and parts held down the index. Mining output fell 0.8 percent, and production at utilities increased 2.0 percent. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry edged up 0.1 percentage point, to 75.0 percent, a level 6.3 percentage points below its 1972–2002 average. (over) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY Seasonally adjusted 1997=100 Percent change Industrial production 2003 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Total index Previous estimates 110.8 110.8 111.0 110.8 111.5 111.3 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 107.1 105.8 109.3 108.7 101.5 115.4 107.3 105.9 110.0 109.0 101.9 115.5 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 111.8 111.7 93.4 111.3 111.8 111.5 93.0 113.3 Capacity utilization Average 1972–2002 2003 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 111.8 .8 .7 .2 .1 .5 .4 .2 .6 107.8 106.2 110.8 108.8 102.2 116.5 107.4 105.8 110.2 109.9 103.2 116.9 .6 .7 .3 .8 .7 .9 .2 .0 .6 .3 .4 .1 .4 .3 .7 -.1 .3 .8 -.3 -.3 -.5 1.0 1.0 .4 -.1 -.8 1.2 .5 .0 1.4 112.6 112.3 94.0 111.0 112.7 .5 .5 .2 3.1 .0 -.2 -.4 1.8 .7 .7 1.0 -2.0 .1 .7 -.8 2.0 1.5 -.2 1982 low 1988–89 high 93.2 113.2 Percent of capacity 2002 2003 Oct. Julyr Oct. ’02 to Oct. ’03 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Capacity growth Oct. ’02 to Oct. ’03 Total industry Previous estimates 81.3 70.9 85.2 75.4 74.5 74.5 74.6 74.5 74.9 74.8 75.0 1.1 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 80.2 68.7 85.6 73.7 85.6 92.8 83.2 87.9 73.5 73.3 85.6 82.7 1.0 78.6 77.6 73.0 72.8 84.7 84.6 73.5 86.9 87.0 73.0 73.0 85.0 83.4 84.9 84.0 -.5 4.5 86.4 82.4 78.4 77.2 68.1 71.3 88.5 86.4 83.2 82.1 77.8 71.3 83.9 76.3 70.8 83.3 76.6 70.7 84.1 76.7 71.1 83.5 77.4 70.7 -1.2 1.8 .9 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE– The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the industrial sector, which the Federal Reserve defines as manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Manufacturing comprises those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus the logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing industries that have traditionally been considered manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Market Groups The output of consumer goods decreased 0.3 percent in October. The production of durable consumer goods fell 1.3 percent. A decline of 2.9 percent in the index for automotive products more than offset increases in all other major categories of consumer durables, including a rise of 2.3 percent in the output of home electronics. The production of consumer nondurables in October was unchanged from the September level. The output of non-energy nondurables slid 0.3 percent, but the output of consumer energy products moved up 1.2 percent. Within the non-energy category, declines in the production of foods and tobacco and of chemical products more than offset increases in the output of paper products and clothing; the output of clothing was still 13.6 percent below its year-earlier level despite the increase in October. The production of business equipment fell back 0.5 percent. Declines in the output of transit equipment and of industrial and other equipment, particularly farm equipment, outweighed an increase in the production of information processing equipment. The output of defense and space equipment moved up 0.5 percent and was 5.5 percent higher than its level a year earlier. The indexes for construction supplies and for business supplies each climbed 1.0 percent. The output of industrial materials rose 0.4 percent in October and was 1.4 percent higher than its year-earlier level. The production of durable materials increased 0.9 percent, while the indexes for nondurable materials and energy materials were little changed. Among durable materials, the indexes for equipment parts and for other durables posted noticeable gains. Industry Groups Despite a decline of 3.8 percent in the production of motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in October. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output increased 0.4 percent. Among durable goods industries, sizable increases were posted for primary metals (particularly steel), wood products, and computers and electronic products. In the latter category, all three major components—computers, semiconductors, and communications equipment—recorded gains to move the index 15.5 percent higher than its year-ago level. Smaller increases were recorded in the indexes for fabricated metal products; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; furniture and related products; and nonmetallic mineral products. The output of nondurables fell 0.1 percent in October. Declines in the production of food, beverage, and tobacco products, of chemical products, and of paper more than offset increases in the other nondurables industries. The index for other manufacturing industries, which consists of logging and of newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing, moved up 1.6 percent. The factory operating rate in October was 73.5 percent, 6.7 percentage points below its 1972–2002 average. By stage-of-processing category, capacity utilization for industries in the primary and semifinished stage increased 0.7 percentage point, to 77.4 percent. The utilization rates for industries in the crude and finished stages fell in October. The operating rate at mines declined 0.7 percentage point, to 84.9 percent, and the rate at utilities increased 1.3 percentage points, to 84.0 percent. Tables 1. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change 2. Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change 3. Motor Vehicle Assemblies 4. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes 5. Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes 6. Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production 7. Capacity Utilization 8. Industrial Capacity 9. Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies 10. Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups 11. Electric Power Use 12. Historical Statistics: Total Industry 13. Historical Statistics: Manufacturing 14. Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries 15. Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Further detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). 2 Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization On November 10, the Federal Reserve Board issued a revision to the index of industrial production (IP), the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization, and the data on industrial use of electric power. The updated measures reflect the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive source data typical of annual revisions. The updating of source data for IP in the 2003 annual revision included annual data from the Census Bureau’s 2000 and 2001 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) and from selected editions of its 2001 and 2002 Current Industrial Reports. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2001 and 2002 were also introduced. The updating included revisions to the monthly indicator for each industry (either physical product data, production-worker hours, or electric power usage) and revisions to seasonal factors. Capacity and capacity utilization were revised to incorporate preliminary data from the 2002 Survey of Plant Capacity of the Bureau of the Census, which covers manufacturing, along with other new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy, and other organizations. The statistics on the industrial use of electric power incorporate additional information received from utilities for the past few years and include some data from the 2001 Annual Survey of Manufactures. The revision release and revised data are available on the Board’s web site, at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data are also available through the web site of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Further information on these revisions is available from the Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197). 3 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization 200 185 Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 Total Manufacturing 200 185 160 160 135 135 Capacity 110 110 85 85 Production Detail: 2000 to present 122 60 118 60 Production 114 110 2000 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2001 2002 1995 2003 106 2000 Percent of capacity 100 95 35 100 95 Utilization 85 85 75 75 65 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 65 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). See note on cover page. 4 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization Consumer goods Equipment Ratio scale, 1997=100 Ratio scale, 1997=100 130 130 130 130 125 125 125 125 120 120 115 Durable 115 110 110 105 105 Nondurable 100 120 Business 120 115 115 110 110 105 105 100 Defense and Space 100 100 95 95 95 90 90 90 85 130 130 130 130 125 125 125 125 120 120 115 115 115 115 110 110 110 110 105 105 100 100 100 100 95 95 95 95 90 90 95 90 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Nonindustrial supplies 120 105 90 Ratio scale, 1997=100 Other business Construction 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Capacity utilization 85 80 Industrial materials Percent of capacity 90 Primary and semifinished processing 75 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 90 85 85 Ratio scale, 1997=100 120 Non-energy 105 Energy 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Capacity utilization 90 85 90 Percent of capacity 90 85 Finished processing 80 80 80 75 75 75 70 70 70 65 65 Excluding utilities 70 65 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 65 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 1997 = 100 125 115 125 115 Excluding high-technology industries 95 95 75 75 Total IP 55 35 55 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Industrial production 1995 2000 35 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1970 1975 Industrial production 600 525 450 1980 1985 1990 Capacity utilization Ratio scale, 1997 = 100 600 525 450 Semiconductors 375 300 2000 95 -10 -15 Percent of capacity 100 375 300 1995 -5 100 95 Excluding high-technology industries 85 85 75 75 Computers 225 225 150 150 Communications eq. 65 65 High-technology industries 75 1998 2000 2002 2004 75 55 1990 1995 2000 55 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 6 Table 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter It Item 2002 proportion1 Annual rate 2003 Q1 Q2 Monthly rate 2000 2001 2002 100.00 2.3 -5.2 1.3 -1.9 .9 -4.0 4.0 .8 .2 .5 .2 .6 58.92 31.11 8.13 4.04 .34 1.44 2.31 22.98 18.59 10.35 1.02 4.60 2.11 4.39 2.3 1.0 -1.9 -5.1 15.7 -.5 -.3 2.1 1.0 .7 -5.6 4.4 -1.2 7.1 -4.9 -2.2 -2.9 1.1 -10.3 -2.0 -8.1 -1.9 -1.0 -.6 -15.1 3.0 -3.2 -5.8 .5 1.0 6.0 9.9 4.4 1.8 2.4 -.8 -2.8 -3.9 -2.4 -1.8 -.9 8.7 -2.0 -3.7 1.1 -3.3 66.1 1.5 1.7 -5.4 -9.0 -13.4 -8.7 -4.7 2.7 11.5 1.9 1.4 1.6 3.2 39.2 .2 -5.4 1.2 1.1 -.7 -18.7 1.7 15.6 2.2 -4.5 -5.1 -6.5 -8.8 -8.7 1.7 -7.2 -4.5 -1.4 -1.7 -18.5 .9 4.2 -16.0 3.2 2.6 10.8 20.6 10.4 2.5 -.4 -.1 -2.2 -2.3 -18.1 1.4 -2.7 8.4 .7 .7 1.7 2.7 .8 1.2 .1 .4 -.1 .2 -1.0 .0 -1.6 2.6 .2 .0 -.7 -1.4 3.5 -.2 -.3 .3 -.2 -1.0 -3.1 1.9 .4 2.2 .2 .3 2.8 6.1 -.1 -1.2 -.4 -.6 -.3 -.5 -.1 -.1 -.4 -1.6 .0 -.3 -1.3 -2.9 2.3 .4 .4 .0 -.3 -.8 1.8 -.4 1.6 1.2 .1 -.8 2.7 5.0 19.3 1.8 -3.2 -2.0 -2.7 -4.8 -13.6 .5 4.4 .9 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 10.00 1.75 3.19 5.07 1.91 6.8 -11.2 19.2 4.9 -3.1 -12.8 -5.9 -12.8 -15.0 12.4 -1.4 -15.2 5.5 -1.0 3.6 -.5 -15.4 12.3 -3.0 8.3 3.3 -11.8 17.8 -.2 9.9 -4.8 -12.6 -1.3 -4.5 1.8 4.7 .9 8.6 3.5 5.4 .3 -.1 .9 .1 .3 .6 .2 1.3 .3 .6 .7 2.5 .2 .4 .5 -.5 -3.3 1.5 -.9 .5 1.2 -8.7 10.0 -.9 5.5 Construction supplies Business supplies 4.29 11.24 -.1 2.9 -6.5 -5.6 .4 1.4 -1.6 -.4 -2.9 3.1 -4.5 -4.1 4.5 2.5 .7 .8 .4 .3 .3 -.3 1.0 1.0 .0 .8 41.08 30.46 19.15 3.98 6.75 8.42 11.31 .78 2.71 4.20 10.62 2.2 2.3 5.6 -7.1 23.0 -3.9 -3.7 -9.7 -4.7 -3.9 1.7 -5.7 -6.6 -7.2 -7.2 -7.4 -6.8 -5.6 -11.6 -6.1 -5.1 -2.9 2.5 3.0 4.2 6.7 5.9 1.5 .9 -1.0 1.5 1.7 1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -.8 .8 .5 -2.7 -4.6 -9.2 -.1 -7.8 -.1 -.6 -1.0 -.8 .9 3.0 -4.7 -1.3 -13.7 -7.6 2.2 .5 -3.4 -3.3 -3.1 -9.8 6.8 -7.3 -3.8 -16.5 -3.9 -5.2 -3.6 5.2 5.4 9.2 8.9 17.9 2.6 -.7 -17.4 -3.1 4.4 4.8 .9 .8 1.1 .9 1.8 .7 .3 -3.0 .2 1.6 1.2 .1 .0 .2 -.7 1.4 -.2 -.3 -1.2 -1.8 .7 .2 .8 1.1 1.4 4.1 1.0 .5 .6 .7 .4 1.5 .0 .4 .6 .9 -1.7 1.6 1.5 .1 .1 -.3 .1 .0 1.4 1.5 3.0 1.2 9.7 -1.5 -.9 -12.4 -4.1 2.0 1.3 321 327 331 332 333 334 83.46 78.37 42.58 1.44 2.27 2.23 5.87 5.23 8.11 2.0 2.2 4.8 -6.5 -1.7 -9.1 .0 2.5 29.4 -5.6 -5.5 -7.3 -2.2 -5.6 -10.6 -8.4 -17.1 -7.5 1.0 1.2 3.0 -1.8 2.1 3.5 -.1 -.9 10.8 -2.9 -3.1 .4 -5.7 3.6 -.1 -3.8 -3.8 14.4 1.0 .1 1.4 -2.7 -2.2 -1.8 -5.1 -.3 12.2 -3.2 -3.6 -3.9 -2.8 -3.0 -16.0 -8.6 -.1 7.5 3.6 4.2 8.1 8.6 5.0 .9 1.4 2.4 22.5 .5 .7 1.0 1.9 .8 .2 1.0 -.5 2.4 .0 .0 .1 -.3 .5 -.5 -1.0 .7 2.2 .7 .8 1.5 -.3 -.3 1.7 .9 .7 .7 .1 .0 .0 2.3 .1 4.1 .4 -.9 2.1 .7 .5 2.6 1.1 -.1 -.6 -3.3 .2 15.5 335 3361–3 2.29 6.66 2.3 -9.1 -12.7 -2.8 -2.3 9.9 -3.4 -4.6 -3.7 .6 -3.1 -11.2 1.2 19.2 -.7 2.4 .2 -1.4 .7 6.5 .7 -3.8 .3 2.5 3364–9 337 339 3.58 1.70 3.20 -3.9 .6 6.1 4.9 -7.4 -2.8 -9.7 -.4 3.5 -3.9 -3.8 1.5 -2.9 -.4 5.8 -1.6 -8.1 -6.4 1.1 .2 -3.4 -.3 .9 -.5 .8 -.6 -1.0 -.1 .0 .3 .0 .3 -.5 -1.4 -2.2 -.6 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 35.79 11.91 1.29 1.10 3.06 2.51 2.21 9.95 3.77 -1.4 .6 -6.4 -5.4 -4.8 -1.4 -1.7 -.2 -3.2 -3.3 -.4 -10.3 -15.5 -6.0 -6.7 -2.5 -1.3 -5.7 -.9 -3.5 -1.3 -2.0 2.9 -1.7 1.2 -.1 2.2 -7.3 -12.4 -6.1 -8.4 .6 -3.7 .2 -6.9 -5.1 -1.5 -.6 -11.6 -17.9 -7.5 -4.2 2.3 2.3 -1.0 -3.2 -1.2 -10.8 -18.0 -.4 -10.4 -2.6 -1.7 -4.4 -.2 -1.6 -9.8 -16.7 -3.3 -1.1 2.7 3.8 2.4 .4 .3 -.6 -.8 -.1 .2 .9 1.0 .2 -.1 -1.0 -1.1 -3.0 -1.7 -.4 1.8 1.1 .5 .0 -.3 -1.4 .1 -.4 .9 -.4 .6 .3 -.1 -.8 .9 1.8 -.1 .4 .3 -.3 1.1 -2.0 -4.1 -8.3 -12.8 -3.4 -2.9 4.7 1.1 .0 1133,5111 5.09 -1.5 -6.3 -2.2 .0 16.4 3.1 -5.4 -1.9 .2 -.5 1.6 3.3 21 2211,2 2211 2212 6.76 9.78 8.26 1.53 1.1 6.1 4.9 12.9 -1.0 -5.2 -3.7 -12.8 -2.3 6.6 5.5 13.4 4.0 3.8 .1 28.1 .0 .5 .8 -.5 -.7 -13.3 -10.9 -24.1 1.5 10.2 12.6 -.9 .2 3.1 3.9 -.8 -.4 1.8 1.9 .9 1.0 -2.0 -2.2 -.6 -.8 2.0 2.4 .0 1.5 -.2 .8 -4.4 Total IP MARKET GROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas Q3r 2003 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Oct. ’02 to Oct. ’03 2002 Q4 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Under industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of an NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year. 7 Table 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: SPECIAL AGGREGATES AND SELECTED DETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter It Item 2002 proportion Annual rate 2003 Q1 Q2 Monthly rate 2000 2001 2002 100.00 2.3 -5.2 1.3 -1.9 .9 -4.0 4.0 .8 .2 .5 .2 .6 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 17.59 4.39 2.33 .25 3.60 7.02 3.9 7.1 6.0 29.3 5.4 -.3 -3.6 -5.8 -1.6 -10.9 -7.9 -.2 2.9 8.7 3.5 -14.8 3.7 -.4 3.5 11.5 5.0 1.2 -6.5 3.6 1.1 2.2 1.8 -1.2 3.3 -.9 -7.6 -16.0 -12.1 18.1 -17.2 3.7 5.9 8.4 6.9 -.2 16.6 .1 1.8 2.6 3.3 -.7 3.9 .1 .9 2.2 1.7 1.5 .8 -.1 -.7 -1.6 -2.2 -1.0 -1.4 .7 .5 1.2 2.1 .5 .7 -.3 .8 .9 -1.4 3.2 -.6 2.3 Non-energy 82.41 2.0 -5.6 1.0 -2.9 .8 -3.2 3.6 .5 .0 .8 .1 .6 3341 3342 5.22 1.28 1.44 38.2 19.1 27.7 -8.4 -5.7 -22.8 15.3 24.0 -5.5 17.7 44.4 6.0 13.8 15.9 27.4 14.4 -4.3 2.8 29.9 19.3 -7.0 2.6 2.1 -1.8 3.0 1.8 1.4 .8 1.5 -1.6 2.5 1.4 1.4 20.6 13.1 9.7 334412–9 2.50 52.8 .8 24.9 12.1 5.8 33.2 61.9 5.4 4.4 1.7 3.5 30.7 77.19 -1.5 -5.2 -.1 -4.4 -.1 -4.3 2.0 .4 -.2 .8 -.1 -.7 6.66 2.92 3.35 -9.1 -12.2 -5.7 -2.8 1.5 -5.3 9.9 11.6 7.8 -4.6 -10.5 -.5 .6 1.3 .6 -11.2 -14.4 -8.9 19.2 27.9 12.4 2.4 4.1 1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -.3 6.5 10.9 4.0 -3.8 -5.7 -2.5 2.5 3.9 1.5 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 70.53 26.50 7.51 4.25 10.87 25.30 -.8 -.2 3.8 -.4 .5 -2.9 -5.5 -1.5 -11.5 -6.4 -5.5 -7.2 -1.0 -.3 -4.6 .5 .7 .3 -4.3 -6.6 -3.1 -1.7 -.8 -4.1 -.1 1.1 -.3 -3.2 2.9 -2.0 -3.6 -3.0 -5.3 -4.6 -5.1 -5.1 .4 1.5 3.7 4.7 1.2 .4 .2 .4 .3 .8 .7 .3 -.1 -.4 .4 .4 .2 -.3 .2 .6 .3 .3 -.3 .7 .3 -.6 -.5 1.0 .9 .7 -1.0 -1.2 -.9 -.1 -.1 -.9 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 94.78 78.24 37.57 -.6 -1.5 -1.6 -4.9 -5.2 -6.9 .4 -.1 1.0 -3.0 -4.3 -2.1 .1 .1 -.5 -5.0 -4.3 -6.4 2.8 2.0 5.1 .7 .4 .7 .0 -.2 -.3 .5 .7 1.6 .1 -.1 -.3 -.4 -.6 .2 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 93.34 76.80 36.13 3.1 3.0 7.2 -5.4 -5.8 -7.9 .8 .3 1.8 -1.6 -2.8 1.4 .9 1.0 1.4 -3.5 -2.4 -2.5 3.0 2.3 5.9 .6 .4 .6 .3 .1 .4 .1 .2 .5 .5 .4 .8 .5 .5 2.6 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 88.11 71.57 .1 -.7 -5.1 -5.5 -.2 -.9 -2.9 -4.3 .1 .1 -4.5 -3.6 1.6 .5 .5 .2 .1 -.1 .0 .2 .4 .3 -.6 -.8 Stage-of-process components of non–energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Semifinished and primary processors 14.23 16.23 8.1 -3.3 -7.4 -5.8 5.0 1.2 .0 -4.1 -.6 -1.4 -1.4 -5.0 9.2 2.1 1.0 .6 .0 .0 1.8 .6 .2 .9 3.4 -.1 Total industry Selected high-technology industries Computers and office equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Q3r 2003 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Oct. ’02 to Oct. ’03 2002 Q4 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. See note on cover page. Table 3 MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2002 average 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 2003 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 12.28 5.02 7.26 7.00 .26 12.37 4.82 7.55 7.30 .25 12.30 4.68 7.63 7.39 .23 11.75 4.43 7.32 7.08 .24 12.28 4.55 7.73 7.47 .26 12.03 4.40 7.63 7.38 .25 11.80 4.33 7.47 7.22 .25 13.00 4.92 8.08 7.80 .29 12.16 4.54 7.63 7.40 .23 MEMO Autos and light trucks 12.02 12.12 12.07 11.51 12.02 11.78 11.55 12.71 11.93 It Item NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 8 Table 4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY 1997 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2002 proportion It Item 2003 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 100.00 111.6 110.8 110.1 110.0 110.0 110.8 111.0 111.5 111.8 58.92 31.11 8.13 4.04 .34 1.44 2.31 22.98 18.59 10.35 1.02 4.60 2.11 4.39 108.6 107.0 117.2 127.1 167.2 110.4 99.2 103.2 100.2 97.1 66.6 115.3 108.5 117.6 107.9 106.3 116.4 125.7 170.8 109.8 98.6 102.6 100.6 97.6 65.7 115.7 109.6 112.1 106.9 105.3 115.5 124.4 172.7 110.0 97.5 101.4 100.1 96.9 64.0 116.3 108.6 108.5 107.1 105.5 115.3 123.5 168.8 111.7 97.5 101.8 100.0 97.1 64.1 115.6 109.0 110.4 106.8 105.0 116.2 125.7 169.4 110.8 97.7 100.9 99.8 97.1 62.2 114.4 110.2 107.1 107.5 105.8 118.2 129.1 170.7 112.2 97.8 101.3 99.6 97.3 61.6 114.4 108.4 109.8 107.8 105.9 117.3 127.3 176.6 111.9 97.5 101.7 99.4 96.3 59.7 116.6 108.8 112.3 108.1 106.2 120.6 135.1 176.4 110.6 97.1 101.1 99.1 95.8 59.7 116.5 108.4 110.5 108.1 105.8 119.1 131.1 180.4 111.0 97.5 101.1 98.9 95.0 60.8 116.1 110.1 111.7 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 10.00 1.75 3.19 5.07 1.91 110.6 76.7 172.1 90.6 111.0 110.0 76.2 172.3 89.8 111.0 108.7 75.0 170.0 88.9 110.3 108.6 74.3 170.8 88.8 111.8 109.0 74.0 170.9 89.4 111.8 109.3 73.9 172.5 89.5 112.1 110.0 74.0 174.8 89.8 112.8 110.8 75.9 175.1 90.2 113.3 110.2 73.4 177.7 89.3 113.8 Construction supplies Business supplies 4.29 11.24 101.9 112.6 101.2 111.9 100.6 111.1 100.8 111.0 100.8 110.6 101.5 111.5 101.9 111.8 102.2 111.5 103.2 112.6 41.08 30.46 19.15 3.98 6.75 8.42 11.31 .78 2.71 4.20 10.62 115.8 119.3 133.7 107.1 205.2 96.0 96.0 74.3 91.3 100.1 101.7 114.7 118.7 132.7 106.0 205.1 94.9 95.9 73.2 91.8 99.6 99.8 114.5 118.3 132.2 104.8 206.0 94.1 95.5 71.8 90.6 100.2 100.2 114.1 117.9 132.1 103.9 207.9 93.8 94.8 70.4 90.5 98.1 99.6 114.4 118.3 133.1 105.0 210.5 94.0 94.5 69.9 90.7 97.0 99.6 115.4 119.2 134.6 105.9 214.2 94.6 94.8 67.8 90.9 98.5 100.9 115.5 119.3 134.9 105.1 217.1 94.3 94.5 67.0 89.2 99.3 101.0 116.5 120.6 136.8 109.4 219.4 94.8 95.1 67.4 89.6 100.7 101.1 116.9 121.3 138.0 107.5 222.9 96.2 95.2 67.5 89.3 100.9 101.1 321 327 331 332 333 334 83.46 78.37 42.58 1.44 2.27 2.23 5.87 5.23 8.11 112.1 112.4 124.5 98.4 99.8 88.0 95.7 86.5 253.6 111.8 112.0 123.6 97.0 100.3 83.5 95.0 86.3 254.6 111.1 111.3 122.8 97.1 99.9 83.8 94.0 85.4 254.6 111.0 111.2 122.8 97.0 99.3 82.2 93.2 86.2 258.0 111.2 111.4 123.6 97.7 100.0 82.7 93.3 86.3 260.5 111.8 112.2 124.8 99.6 100.8 82.9 94.2 85.9 266.7 111.8 112.2 124.9 99.3 101.2 82.5 93.2 86.5 272.4 112.6 113.1 126.8 99.0 100.9 83.9 94.1 87.1 274.2 112.7 113.0 126.8 101.3 101.0 87.3 94.5 86.3 279.9 335 3361–3 2.29 6.66 94.6 116.0 93.0 114.4 92.8 113.0 92.4 112.0 93.6 113.8 92.9 116.6 93.1 115.0 93.7 122.5 94.4 117.9 3364–9 337 339 3.58 1.70 3.20 94.1 103.1 118.9 94.3 101.5 118.8 93.7 101.0 117.1 94.2 100.8 116.6 94.0 100.3 117.2 93.8 101.2 116.6 94.5 100.6 115.5 94.4 100.5 115.8 94.4 100.9 115.3 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 35.79 11.91 1.29 1.10 3.06 2.51 2.21 9.95 3.77 97.5 98.0 80.4 66.7 92.5 92.3 100.4 105.3 103.8 97.5 98.4 80.1 65.9 93.4 90.3 102.1 105.0 103.9 97.0 97.8 78.5 64.2 92.2 90.3 100.5 105.6 102.2 96.8 98.0 77.7 64.2 92.7 88.8 101.6 104.4 103.0 96.3 98.0 77.2 62.5 93.1 88.8 99.1 103.5 102.5 96.7 98.3 76.7 62.0 93.0 89.0 100.0 104.5 102.8 96.6 97.3 75.9 60.2 91.5 88.7 101.8 105.6 103.2 96.6 97.0 74.9 60.2 91.1 89.5 101.4 106.3 103.5 96.5 96.3 75.5 61.3 91.0 89.8 101.7 105.9 104.7 1133,5111 5.09 106.0 107.0 106.0 106.1 107.0 105.0 105.1 104.6 106.2 21 2211,2 2211 2212 6.76 9.78 8.26 1.53 93.3 116.4 117.2 110.8 93.1 110.8 112.9 99.4 93.4 109.4 111.9 96.5 92.7 110.2 112.4 98.0 93.2 107.9 109.8 97.5 93.4 111.3 114.1 96.7 93.0 113.3 116.4 97.6 94.0 111.0 113.7 97.0 93.2 113.2 116.5 97.0 Total IP MARKET GROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. See notes to table 1. 9 Table 5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: SPECIAL AGGREGATES 1997 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2002 proportion It Item 2003 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 100.00 111.6 110.8 110.1 110.0 110.0 110.8 111.0 111.5 111.8 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 17.59 4.39 2.33 3.60 7.02 107.0 117.6 115.4 92.1 106.8 98.7 104.2 112.1 113.3 90.9 101.2 98.5 103.5 108.5 112.0 93.3 100.3 99.5 103.6 110.4 112.3 96.0 98.7 99.3 102.5 107.1 108.9 94.6 99.5 99.1 104.3 109.8 112.5 94.0 103.4 99.1 105.2 112.3 114.4 95.4 104.2 99.0 104.5 110.5 111.9 94.5 102.7 99.8 105.1 111.7 114.2 95.0 103.4 99.4 Non-energy 82.41 112.1 111.7 111.1 111.0 111.2 111.8 111.8 112.6 112.7 3341 3342 5.22 1.28 1.44 344.0 258.6 157.4 345.9 257.0 158.6 348.3 254.5 156.5 352.9 253.8 156.0 359.6 256.4 155.4 369.1 261.9 152.6 380.1 266.6 154.6 383.2 270.6 152.2 392.7 274.5 154.4 334412–9 2.50 593.4 599.4 615.8 634.7 657.8 693.0 723.4 736.0 761.7 77.19 99.1 98.7 98.0 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.1 98.8 98.8 6.66 2.92 3.35 116.0 119.4 114.1 114.4 117.3 112.8 113.0 115.9 111.7 112.0 114.3 110.7 113.8 116.4 112.3 116.6 121.2 113.6 115.0 117.3 113.3 122.5 130.2 117.8 117.9 122.8 114.8 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 70.53 26.50 7.51 4.25 10.87 25.30 97.6 104.5 91.4 101.6 103.1 94.8 97.4 104.6 90.8 100.9 102.4 94.3 96.7 104.0 89.7 100.3 101.6 93.8 96.6 103.9 89.8 100.5 101.4 93.3 96.5 103.9 90.0 100.5 100.9 93.2 96.7 104.4 90.3 101.3 101.6 93.5 96.6 104.0 90.7 101.7 101.8 93.2 96.8 104.7 91.0 101.9 101.4 93.8 97.1 104.0 90.5 102.9 102.3 94.5 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 94.78 78.24 37.57 100.5 99.2 99.7 99.7 98.8 98.8 99.0 98.1 98.0 98.9 97.9 97.8 98.7 98.0 98.2 99.4 98.4 98.9 99.4 98.2 98.6 99.9 98.9 100.2 99.9 98.8 99.9 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 93.34 76.80 36.13 111.3 111.8 125.6 110.5 111.6 124.9 109.9 110.9 124.2 109.9 110.9 124.4 109.7 110.9 124.9 110.4 111.4 125.7 110.7 111.5 126.2 110.8 111.8 126.9 111.3 112.2 127.9 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 88.11 71.57 99.4 97.7 98.6 97.5 98.0 96.8 97.9 96.7 97.7 96.6 98.2 96.8 98.3 96.8 98.3 96.9 98.7 97.2 Stage-of-process components of non–energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Semifinished and primary processors 14.23 16.23 144.5 98.2 144.1 97.5 143.5 97.1 143.5 96.5 144.8 96.4 146.2 97.0 146.3 97.0 148.9 97.6 149.2 98.4 Total industry Selected high-technology industries Computers and office equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. See note on cover page. Table 6 DIFFUSION INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Percent Item It Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. One month earlier 2001 2002 2003 39.3 52.9 48.8 38.3 54.9 48.8 41.0 62.4 38.3 45.8 58.0 36.3 34.6 59.0 51.5 37.3 60.7 52.5 41.4 45.8 57.6 44.1 48.5 46.8 43.7 47.5 55.3 40.0 44.1 39.7 53.6 49.5 48.8 Three months earlier 2001 2002 2003 35.3 46.8 47.5 30.2 57.1 45.1 32.9 60.2 42.0 39.3 64.7 33.6 33.2 68.1 36.3 39.0 63.1 45.4 31.2 58.0 55.6 38.3 52.9 55.6 39.7 43.7 59.3 40.7 44.4 36.9 45.8 40.7 45.8 Six months earlier 2001 2002 2003 30.8 41.4 40.7 30.2 42.5 40.0 27.8 53.4 40.3 29.2 56.1 33.6 29.5 61.6 34.9 32.2 65.0 39.3 33.6 61.4 43.1 32.5 61.7 43.1 36.3 52.9 53.6 30.5 50.8 33.6 46.8 36.3 44.4 NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 10 Table 7 CAPACITY UTILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 19722002 ave. 198889 high 199091 low 199495 high 2002 Q4 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3r 2003 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 100.00 81.3 85.2 78.6 84.8 75.2 75.1 74.1 74.7 74.5 74.6 74.9 75.0 86.43 81.54 80.2 80.0 85.6 85.5 77.2 77.0 84.3 84.4 73.5 73.2 73.5 72.9 72.7 72.0 73.2 72.6 73.0 72.5 73.0 72.4 73.5 73.0 73.5 72.9 321 327 331 332 333 334 46.72 1.46 2.26 2.23 6.41 5.99 10.50 78.5 80.4 79.4 81.0 77.2 79.8 79.5 84.5 88.8 85.7 95.3 80.3 84.6 81.1 73.4 73.0 72.1 75.2 71.1 72.8 76.3 83.7 87.9 84.0 94.9 83.8 87.6 85.3 70.5 73.4 77.9 77.1 69.7 66.7 63.1 70.3 73.1 77.5 76.8 68.8 66.8 63.2 69.1 72.7 76.9 73.4 67.2 67.0 62.9 70.1 74.2 77.9 73.5 67.3 67.6 64.9 69.8 74.5 77.7 73.4 67.6 67.0 64.2 69.8 74.2 78.1 73.0 66.8 67.6 65.2 70.7 74.0 77.8 74.2 67.4 68.1 65.2 70.5 75.7 77.9 77.2 67.6 67.5 66.1 335 3361–3 2.35 6.36 83.2 77.6 87.4 89.7 75.0 56.5 92.5 87.8 74.1 81.3 73.5 80.9 73.1 77.9 73.5 80.7 73.2 80.0 73.4 78.6 74.0 83.5 74.6 80.2 3364–9 337 339 4.15 1.81 3.21 73.2 79.2 76.9 88.9 84.0 81.7 81.9 67.9 77.7 67.7 83.7 81.2 64.3 71.1 76.7 63.8 71.1 77.8 63.6 69.6 76.5 63.8 69.7 75.9 63.4 69.9 76.3 64.0 69.5 75.6 63.9 69.5 75.8 63.9 69.7 75.4 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.82 11.38 1.32 1.28 2.81 2.56 1.72 10.16 3.59 82.2 82.3 83.7 80.1 88.4 84.7 86.3 78.6 83.8 87.0 85.5 91.4 84.2 93.7 91.6 88.9 85.6 91.3 81.8 81.3 77.2 77.3 85.2 82.7 82.5 80.8 77.2 85.5 84.5 91.0 89.2 92.4 86.0 90.2 81.3 92.4 76.7 77.3 74.9 67.2 84.9 74.4 88.1 72.9 79.5 76.5 77.4 73.2 65.2 83.6 73.7 88.4 73.1 79.6 76.1 77.3 71.7 63.4 83.8 71.9 87.6 72.6 79.1 76.2 77.2 70.4 61.9 83.3 72.0 87.8 73.0 80.1 76.2 77.7 71.1 62.7 84.3 71.9 87.0 72.4 79.6 76.1 77.0 70.5 61.3 82.9 71.7 88.4 73.2 80.1 76.2 76.8 69.7 61.8 82.6 72.4 87.9 73.5 80.5 76.2 76.3 70.5 63.4 82.6 72.8 88.1 73.2 81.6 1133,5111 4.89 83.7 90.7 79.1 82.8 78.9 82.3 83.2 82.3 82.3 82.5 82.2 83.6 21 2211,2 5.25 8.32 86.9 87.0 85.6 92.8 83.4 84.1 88.3 93.8 84.6 87.2 84.7 86.3 84.7 82.4 85.1 83.5 85.0 83.4 84.7 84.6 85.6 82.7 84.9 84.0 3341 3342 7.16 1.54 2.34 79.2 78.4 78.6 79.9 79.3 81.7 74.5 67.2 73.2 88.3 86.6 87.5 61.7 71.6 48.2 61.7 71.4 50.6 62.0 68.6 50.9 64.5 70.2 50.2 63.6 69.5 49.9 65.0 70.3 50.7 65.0 70.9 50.0 66.1 71.5 50.8 334412–9 3.28 81.0 80.5 78.1 91.5 66.7 64.9 66.8 72.2 70.8 72.8 73.0 74.4 92.84 79.27 81.4 80.2 85.6 86.1 78.8 77.3 84.7 84.1 76.3 74.6 76.3 74.7 75.3 73.9 75.7 74.3 75.6 74.2 75.6 74.0 76.0 74.6 76.0 74.5 8.29 49.05 42.66 86.4 82.4 78.4 88.5 86.4 83.2 84.7 77.5 77.2 88.9 87.9 80.3 83.1 77.5 71.1 83.3 77.2 71.2 83.3 75.8 70.4 83.8 76.5 70.8 83.9 76.3 70.8 83.3 76.6 70.7 84.1 76.7 71.1 83.5 77.4 70.7 2002 proportion Item Total industry Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aircraft and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and office equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. See note on cover page. Table 8 INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY Percent change Item 197279 Average annual rate 1980198988 94 Fourth quarter to fourth quarter 19952003 2000 2001 2002 2003p Annual rate 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Monthly rate 2003 Oct. Total industry 3.0 1.9 2.3 4.1 4.1 2.3 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 .1 Manufacturing1 3.1 2.2 2.6 4.6 4.8 2.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 .1 Mining Utilities .7 4.2 .1 2.1 -.8 1.6 -.1 2.7 -1.2 2.5 2.7 3.7 .3 6.0 -.5 4.4 -.6 5.1 -.5 4.4 -.5 4.0 -.4 3.9 .0 .3 18.3 17.2 15.5 33.7 42.3 24.9 17.6 11.8 14.1 12.0 10.7 10.4 .8 2.5 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.2 .4 -.1 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.2 .0 1.6 3.0 3.7 .3 1.5 3.2 -.2 2.6 2.6 -.1 5.1 3.8 -1.3 5.1 4.3 1.2 2.8 1.8 -.3 1.8 1.7 -1.1 1.8 .8 -1.3 1.8 1.3 -1.2 1.8 .9 -1.1 1.8 .6 -.9 1.7 .5 -.1 .1 .0 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing1 ex. selected high-technology industries STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished p Preliminary. 1. See note on cover page. 11 Table 9 GROSS VALUE OF FINAL PRODUCTS AND NONINDUSTRIAL SUPPLIES Billions of 1996 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 1996 2002 2002 Q3 Q4 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3r 2003 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p 2,368.0 2,726.7 2,740.4 2,731.0 2,740.6 2,704.8 2,738.7 2,729.6 2,734.4 2,752.1 2,744.5 1,774.8 1,244.3 378.6 213.9 164.7 865.8 2,054.0 1,398.9 485.0 290.7 193.1 915.1 2,065.7 1,408.3 493.2 299.9 191.6 916.9 2,057.4 1,401.0 493.3 297.0 195.0 909.9 2,066.0 1,406.3 496.5 299.6 195.5 912.1 2,038.9 1,386.3 486.9 291.9 193.8 901.3 2,067.0 1,403.9 504.3 307.6 195.0 903.8 2,059.6 1,401.2 501.5 304.8 195.1 903.5 2,061.1 1,399.2 495.6 298.4 195.7 906.4 2,080.3 1,411.4 515.9 319.5 194.1 901.5 2,065.6 1,401.9 505.9 308.6 195.5 900.6 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 530.5 515.6 448.3 67.3 649.4 638.9 567.7 69.5 651.1 640.8 568.8 70.3 650.5 640.9 567.1 71.7 654.1 645.3 570.4 72.7 647.8 638.5 563.1 73.0 658.8 649.6 572.2 74.9 653.2 643.7 567.0 74.1 657.9 648.9 571.3 74.9 665.4 656.4 578.2 75.6 660.0 650.5 571.3 76.2 Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 593.1 162.7 430.4 113.0 672.6 176.4 496.8 129.5 674.6 176.2 499.0 129.5 673.6 175.7 498.6 131.3 674.5 174.3 501.1 131.7 665.9 172.1 494.7 127.5 671.6 174.0 498.4 129.0 669.9 173.3 497.4 128.2 673.3 174.1 500.0 130.8 671.7 174.6 497.8 128.2 678.8 176.7 502.8 130.6 It Item Final products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable r Revised. p Preliminary. Table 10 GROSS-VALUE-WEIGHTED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter It Item 2002 gross value1 Finished Semi-finished Primary Crude 1802.3 1759.0 858.5 360.5 2000 2001 2002 2002 Q4 1.8 3.1 -1.6 -4.2 -4.2 -6.5 -6.2 -2.9 1.4 3.1 3.1 -.6 -3.3 -.9 .3 -3.9 Annual rate 2003 Q1 Q2 1.9 -.3 .2 -1.2 -3.9 -3.6 -10.3 -5.9 Monthly rate Q3r 2003 Julyr Aug.r Sept.r Oct.p Oct. ’02 to Oct. ’03 1.0 1.0 1.2 .9 -.4 .5 .8 -.6 1.5 .4 .1 .5 -1.2 .8 1.1 -.7 .5 1.4 .7 -1.1 5.5 6.3 4.0 2.9 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Billions of 1996 dollars. Table 11 ELECTRIC POWER USE 1997 = 100 Item 1997 billion kWh Seasonally adjusted 2003 Apr. May June Julyr Not seasonally adjusted Aug.r Sept.p 2003 Apr. May June Julyr Aug.r Sept.p Total Industry 983.9 92.3 91.2 91.1 92.0 91.2 91.8 91.7 91.0 91.8 92.4 93.6 95.0 Manufacturing1 Durable Nondurable 890.9 386.5 498.4 92.9 93.5 92.4 91.8 91.6 91.9 91.6 91.1 92.0 92.5 91.7 93.0 91.8 91.2 92.2 92.3 91.9 92.6 92.2 92.7 91.8 91.6 92.1 91.3 92.4 92.6 92.3 93.0 93.1 92.9 94.5 94.5 94.3 95.7 95.5 95.7 93.0 84.9 83.1 84.3 85.4 82.9 84.6 84.3 82.2 83.1 82.9 81.7 85.2 962.6 913.5 70.4 93.3 89.9 125.8 92.1 89.0 126.0 91.8 88.8 127.5 92.4 90.3 124.7 91.7 89.2 125.3 92.3 89.8 127.0 92.2 89.8 121.6 92.0 88.9 124.6 93.5 89.7 125.6 94.0 90.2 126.8 95.4 91.5 128.1 95.9 93.1 124.9 Mining Total ex. nuclear nondefense Utility sales to industry Industrial generation r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. See note on cover page. NOTE. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/download.htm. 12 Table 12 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year IP (percent change)1 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual -.6 -1.8 1.8 2.0 -.3 -.3 1.9 -.5 .3 .5 .5 -.7 .8 .7 .1 -.4 -.8 1.3 .6 .0 .7 -.7 .7 .6 .1 .5 -.3 .6 .4 .0 .7 -.4 1.5 .3 -.6 -.1 -.9 1.1 .1 .5 -.7 -.5 1.5 -.2 .4 -.8 -.9 .8 -.2 -.5 -1.1 -.4 .3 .3 .3 -1.1 -.8 .7 .1 1.0 1.3 -7.2 4.3 12.4 1.0 1.8 -4.7 10.0 6.8 1.0 4.0 -6.1 14.4 3.0 -.6 -9.1 -7.7 10.7 -.1 1.9 1.3 -5.1 2.6 9.1 1.3 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 .6 -.5 .1 .3 -.5 -.7 1.4 .5 -.5 .9 -.7 .2 .2 .3 .4 .1 .7 .4 -.1 .0 .2 .6 .0 -.6 .1 -.3 .7 .2 .0 .3 .6 .6 .2 -1.0 -.2 -.2 .7 .5 .9 .3 .2 .2 -.3 -.3 .2 .4 1.4 .5 -.1 -.7 .5 .5 .2 .2 -1.2 .9 .4 .5 .7 -.7 2.6 4.9 3.6 1.6 3.0 -2.4 7.7 3.0 -1.7 3.0 1.6 7.3 2.2 -2.8 1.3 4.5 9.1 3.1 1.5 -5.9 1.0 5.0 5.0 .9 .9 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 -.4 -.6 .4 .5 .4 -.7 .9 .4 .1 .0 -.5 .7 .1 .9 .0 .2 .7 .2 .5 .0 1.0 .4 -.3 .6 .2 1.0 -.1 .2 .7 .3 .0 .8 .4 .2 -.4 .0 -.3 -.1 .6 1.4 .9 .1 .6 .2 .5 -.2 .7 .6 .8 -.2 -.1 .5 .4 .6 .4 -.3 .0 .6 1.1 .4 -7.4 -.1 3.5 5.9 5.7 2.6 7.0 1.1 7.2 .9 5.3 2.7 2.1 5.1 3.7 .7 4.3 6.2 7.8 3.7 -1.5 2.8 3.3 5.4 4.8 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -.7 .3 .5 .6 -.1 1.3 1.4 .3 .4 .6 -.2 .3 .3 .4 .4 .9 .5 .6 .2 .7 .7 .4 .5 .7 .6 .9 .5 -.4 .1 .1 -.1 .6 -.2 .5 -.5 .7 1.0 2.0 .7 -.1 .6 .8 -.2 -.2 .4 .1 .8 .8 1.0 -.4 .9 .7 -.3 .5 -.1 .5 .3 .0 .8 -.3 2.0 8.5 5.0 3.6 4.6 8.0 6.5 4.2 4.4 6.7 5.8 8.3 3.7 4.9 -.6 6.3 9.2 4.9 7.0 -1.3 4.3 7.4 5.9 4.4 4.4 2001 2002 2003 -.9 .6 .5 -.5 .2 .4 -.4 .4 -.7 -.3 .4 -.6 -.5 .2 -.1 -.6 .6 .0 -.4 -.1 .8 -.2 .0 .2 -.6 -.1 .5 -.2 -.3 .2 -.5 .1 -.2 -.5 -6.3 1.9 .9 -5.0 4.2 -4.0 -5.2 1.2 4.0 -4.5 -1.9 -3.4 -.6 IP (1997=100) 2001 2002 2003 114.2 109.7 111.2 113.6 109.9 111.6 113.2 110.3 110.8 112.8 110.8 110.1 112.3 110.9 110.0 111.6 111.7 110.0 111.1 111.5 110.8 110.9 111.5 111.0 110.2 111.3 111.5 109.9 111.0 111.8 109.4 111.2 109.1 110.6 113.7 110.0 111.2 112.2 111.1 110.0 110.7 111.5 111.1 109.5 110.9 111.5 110.9 Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 2001 2002 2003 142.6 145.6 147.8 142.9 145.8 148.0 143.2 146.0 148.1 143.5 146.2 148.3 143.8 146.4 148.4 144.0 146.6 148.5 144.3 146.8 148.7 144.5 147.0 148.8 144.7 147.2 148.9 144.9 147.3 149.0 145.2 147.5 145.4 147.7 142.9 145.8 148.0 143.8 146.4 148.4 144.5 147.0 148.8 145.2 147.5 144.1 146.7 Utilization (percent) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 80.8 75.5 72.1 79.6 80.0 80.4 76.8 71.7 79.7 80.2 80.6 76.1 72.2 80.2 80.1 80.1 75.3 73.1 80.5 79.9 80.4 74.7 73.6 80.9 79.8 80.7 74.3 74.0 81.0 79.6 81.1 73.9 75.1 81.1 79.0 80.8 73.1 75.9 81.1 79.2 80.0 72.6 77.0 80.7 79.3 79.2 71.9 77.5 80.4 78.8 78.1 71.5 77.7 80.5 78.9 77.1 70.9 78.1 80.4 79.5 80.6 76.2 72.0 79.8 80.1 80.4 74.8 73.6 80.8 79.8 80.6 73.2 76.0 81.0 79.1 78.2 71.4 77.8 80.4 79.1 79.9 73.9 74.8 80.5 79.5 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 79.9 78.9 83.4 85.2 82.4 79.2 79.9 83.8 84.6 83.0 78.6 79.9 83.9 84.7 83.1 78.5 80.3 84.2 84.5 83.0 78.6 80.7 84.1 83.8 82.9 78.3 81.0 84.2 83.7 83.0 78.6 81.4 84.3 82.7 82.7 78.4 81.8 84.7 83.3 82.8 78.4 81.9 84.3 82.8 82.8 78.6 82.9 84.7 82.6 82.1 78.9 83.2 84.8 82.6 81.0 79.5 83.5 85.0 83.0 80.3 79.2 79.6 83.7 84.8 82.9 78.4 80.7 84.1 84.0 83.0 78.5 81.7 84.4 82.9 82.8 79.0 83.2 84.8 82.7 81.1 78.8 81.3 84.3 83.6 82.4 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 79.8 78.8 81.1 82.4 84.8 79.1 79.4 81.3 82.3 84.5 78.6 79.9 81.3 82.8 84.2 78.6 80.3 81.3 83.0 83.8 79.3 80.4 80.9 83.3 83.7 80.0 80.3 80.9 83.6 83.6 79.8 80.8 81.1 83.5 82.8 79.8 80.4 80.9 83.7 83.6 80.3 80.3 81.2 83.6 83.6 80.0 80.8 81.6 83.9 83.0 79.8 81.1 81.8 84.2 82.9 79.4 80.9 82.1 84.8 82.9 79.2 79.4 81.2 82.5 84.5 79.3 80.3 81.1 83.3 83.7 80.0 80.5 81.1 83.6 83.3 79.7 80.9 81.8 84.3 82.9 79.6 80.3 81.3 83.4 83.6 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 81.9 82.7 84.0 82.2 82.8 82.6 83.5 83.7 82.1 83.0 82.0 83.4 83.5 82.2 83.0 82.3 83.4 83.5 82.1 83.3 82.5 83.3 83.4 82.3 83.5 82.8 83.3 82.6 82.1 83.3 82.3 83.4 81.9 82.3 82.7 82.5 83.8 83.2 82.6 82.3 82.6 84.0 82.6 82.1 82.4 82.3 84.2 82.9 82.7 81.8 82.7 84.3 82.3 82.8 81.5 82.8 84.1 82.0 83.2 81.0 82.1 83.2 83.7 82.2 82.9 82.5 83.3 83.1 82.2 83.4 82.5 83.7 82.6 82.3 82.4 82.6 84.2 82.4 82.9 81.4 82.4 83.6 83.0 82.4 82.6 2001 2002 2003 80.1 75.4 75.2 79.5 75.4 75.4 79.0 75.6 74.8 78.6 75.8 74.2 78.1 75.8 74.1 77.5 76.2 74.0 77.0 76.0 74.5 76.7 75.9 74.6 76.1 75.7 74.9 75.8 75.4 75.0 75.3 75.4 75.1 74.9 79.5 75.4 75.1 78.0 75.9 74.1 76.6 75.8 74.7 75.4 75.2 77.4 75.6 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 13 Table 13 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year IP (percent change) 2 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual -.4 -2.2 2.4 1.9 -.4 -.3 2.8 -.1 .9 -.2 .3 -.8 1.0 .8 .7 .6 -.6 1.2 .5 -.1 .6 -.3 1.4 .4 .2 -.4 -.1 .8 .5 .2 .3 -.2 1.4 .5 -.6 -.1 -.9 .7 .2 .6 -.6 -.4 1.9 -.3 .1 -1.1 -1.2 1.1 .3 -.4 -1.2 -.6 .3 .2 .6 -1.7 -.4 .3 .4 .4 1.1 -8.3 9.1 13.1 .0 3.8 -1.5 12.6 7.0 1.8 -.2 -4.3 14.9 3.9 .1 -10.8 -8.8 12.1 2.0 1.5 1.0 -5.4 4.6 10.0 1.7 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1.2 -.6 -.2 .8 -.1 -.5 1.6 .3 -1.0 1.4 -.4 .1 .3 -.1 .3 .4 .6 .7 .1 -.1 .2 .6 -.1 -.8 .1 -.3 .6 .0 .2 .3 .5 .7 .2 -1.1 -.2 .3 .4 .1 .9 .3 .2 .5 .3 -.3 -.1 .3 1.4 .6 -.1 -.7 .5 .6 .3 .1 -1.2 .9 .5 .5 .2 -.7 4.8 5.3 2.7 1.8 4.5 .0 7.6 3.8 -3.1 2.8 2.5 7.2 1.6 -3.3 .7 4.9 10.4 4.7 .2 -6.6 2.2 5.5 5.1 .7 .7 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 -.7 -.6 .9 .3 .5 -.7 1.1 .2 .2 .0 -.7 .9 .0 1.1 .1 .4 .5 .4 .8 -.1 .7 .6 -.1 .8 .0 1.1 .2 -.2 .3 .4 .3 .8 .3 .4 -.6 .1 -.2 -.2 .8 1.2 1.0 -.1 .8 .2 .9 -.2 .6 .7 .9 -.2 -.3 .5 .5 .8 .2 -.1 -.2 .7 1.2 .5 -8.7 1.1 4.4 5.9 6.2 2.1 8.0 1.6 9.2 .3 6.9 3.7 1.2 5.9 3.1 1.4 3.2 6.9 9.5 4.6 -2.0 3.7 3.5 6.1 5.3 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -.8 .3 .9 .4 .0 1.3 1.7 .3 .6 .5 -.3 .6 .1 .2 .7 1.1 .4 .7 .3 .6 .8 .5 .3 .9 .4 1.1 .7 -.6 -.1 .2 .3 .5 -.3 .4 -.3 .7 1.2 2.4 .9 -.4 .7 .8 -.3 -.2 .4 .0 .7 1.0 1.1 -.4 .9 .9 -.1 .7 -.4 .8 .4 .2 .7 -.6 1.0 10.0 6.9 3.9 5.1 9.1 7.8 3.8 4.9 6.7 8.3 9.2 3.9 4.7 -.7 6.7 9.7 6.8 8.4 -2.8 4.7 8.6 6.8 5.0 4.7 2001 2002 2003 -.9 .6 .7 -.5 .1 .0 -.4 .3 -.3 -.3 .2 -.6 -.5 .3 -.1 -.7 .6 .2 -.3 -.2 .5 -.5 .2 .0 -.6 -.1 .7 -.3 -.5 .1 -.3 .0 -.1 -.6 -7.4 2.1 1.0 -4.9 3.4 -3.2 -5.7 1.7 3.6 -4.3 -2.9 -4.0 -.7 IP (1997=100) 2001 2002 2003 115.4 111.0 112.0 114.8 111.0 112.1 114.3 111.4 111.8 114.1 111.6 111.1 113.5 111.9 111.0 112.7 112.6 111.2 112.4 112.4 111.8 111.8 112.6 111.8 111.2 112.5 112.6 110.8 111.9 112.7 110.5 111.9 110.4 111.3 114.9 111.1 112.0 113.4 112.1 111.1 111.8 112.5 112.0 110.5 111.7 112.7 111.8 Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 2001 2002 2003 147.9 150.6 152.3 148.3 150.7 152.4 148.6 150.9 152.6 148.9 151.0 152.7 149.2 151.1 152.8 149.4 151.3 153.0 149.6 151.4 153.1 149.8 151.6 153.2 150.0 151.7 153.3 150.2 151.9 153.4 150.3 152.0 150.4 152.2 148.3 150.7 152.4 149.2 151.1 152.8 149.8 151.6 153.2 150.3 152.0 149.4 151.4 Utilization (percent) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 78.5 71.9 70.3 78.3 79.1 78.0 73.7 70.1 78.9 78.8 78.0 73.0 70.8 79.3 79.1 78.3 72.4 71.6 79.6 78.8 78.5 72.1 72.5 79.7 78.7 78.0 71.9 73.1 79.9 78.6 78.0 71.6 74.1 80.1 78.0 77.8 70.9 74.5 80.0 78.3 77.1 70.4 75.8 79.6 78.2 76.1 69.5 76.6 79.6 77.8 75.1 69.0 76.8 79.6 78.1 73.6 68.7 76.9 79.7 78.2 78.2 72.8 70.4 78.8 79.0 78.3 72.1 72.4 79.7 78.7 77.7 71.0 74.8 79.9 78.2 74.9 69.1 76.8 79.6 78.0 77.3 71.3 73.6 79.5 78.5 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 79.0 78.8 83.2 85.6 81.6 78.5 79.9 83.4 84.6 82.5 78.1 79.9 83.6 84.4 82.6 78.3 80.2 84.1 84.2 82.3 78.4 80.5 84.0 83.4 82.2 78.0 80.8 84.0 83.3 82.3 78.3 81.2 84.1 82.2 81.9 78.4 81.4 84.1 82.7 82.0 78.5 81.7 84.3 82.3 81.8 78.6 82.8 84.7 82.0 81.0 78.8 83.2 84.8 81.8 79.9 79.4 83.5 85.1 81.8 79.2 78.6 79.5 83.4 84.8 82.3 78.2 80.5 84.0 83.7 82.3 78.4 81.5 84.2 82.4 81.9 78.9 83.1 84.9 81.9 80.1 78.5 81.2 84.1 83.2 81.6 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 78.5 77.8 80.3 81.1 84.3 77.9 78.5 80.3 81.0 83.9 77.2 79.0 80.2 81.8 83.6 77.3 79.3 80.4 82.2 83.1 77.8 79.6 80.2 82.5 82.8 78.5 79.6 79.9 82.5 82.7 78.5 80.1 80.0 82.6 81.8 78.5 79.7 79.6 82.9 82.3 79.2 79.5 80.1 82.8 82.7 78.9 79.8 80.5 83.3 82.1 78.6 80.1 80.7 83.6 81.8 78.4 79.8 81.0 84.3 81.7 77.8 78.4 80.3 81.3 84.0 77.8 79.5 80.1 82.4 82.9 78.8 79.8 79.9 82.8 82.3 78.6 79.9 80.7 83.7 81.9 78.3 79.4 80.3 82.6 82.7 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 80.6 81.5 83.3 81.2 81.7 81.1 82.4 83.0 81.3 81.8 80.4 82.5 82.5 81.1 82.0 80.8 82.4 82.6 81.1 82.2 81.0 82.4 82.3 81.5 82.2 81.4 82.5 81.3 81.1 82.0 81.2 82.5 80.7 81.1 81.4 81.4 82.9 82.1 81.5 80.8 81.5 83.1 81.5 81.0 80.8 81.1 83.1 81.9 81.6 80.2 81.5 83.3 81.4 81.9 79.6 81.7 83.1 81.2 82.1 79.0 80.7 82.1 82.9 81.2 81.8 81.1 82.4 82.1 81.2 82.1 81.4 82.8 81.4 81.2 81.0 81.4 83.2 81.5 81.9 79.6 81.1 82.6 82.0 81.4 81.1 2001 2002 2003 78.0 73.7 73.6 77.4 73.7 73.5 76.9 73.8 73.3 76.6 73.9 72.7 76.1 74.1 72.6 75.4 74.4 72.7 75.1 74.3 73.0 74.6 74.3 73.0 74.1 74.2 73.5 73.8 73.7 73.5 73.5 73.6 73.4 73.1 77.5 73.7 73.5 76.0 74.1 72.7 74.6 74.2 73.2 73.5 73.5 75.4 73.9 1. See note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 14 Table 14 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Seasonally adjusted Year IP (percent change) 1 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual -.7 -1.9 1.7 1.9 -.4 -.4 1.8 -.5 .1 .6 .5 -.7 .7 .6 .0 -.6 -.9 1.3 .5 .1 .6 -.8 .7 .5 .1 .5 -.4 .5 .2 .0 .7 -.5 1.4 .2 -.5 -.3 -.9 1.2 .0 .5 -.8 -.5 1.2 -.3 .5 -.9 -.9 .7 -.2 -.5 -1.2 -.4 .2 .3 .2 -1.2 -.9 .6 .1 1.0 .4 -8.1 3.5 11.3 .8 .9 -5.7 9.1 5.3 1.5 3.4 -6.8 13.5 1.8 -.1 -10.0 -8.3 9.6 -.8 2.0 .6 -5.9 1.8 7.9 1.0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 .6 -.7 .0 .3 -.6 -.7 1.4 .5 -.5 .8 -.8 .2 .2 .4 .4 .1 .6 .3 -.2 -.1 .1 .5 -.1 -.6 .1 -.1 .6 .1 .0 .3 .3 .5 .2 -1.1 -.2 -.2 .6 .5 .9 .3 .2 .2 -.4 -.4 .1 .4 1.3 .5 -.2 -.8 .4 .5 .2 .2 -1.3 .8 .3 .5 .7 -.7 2.6 3.9 3.3 1.8 2.3 -2.7 7.0 2.3 -1.9 2.4 .7 6.3 1.6 -3.6 1.0 4.0 8.4 2.9 .8 -6.5 .9 4.2 4.4 .6 .3 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 -.4 -.8 .4 .5 .2 -.8 .9 .3 .1 -.2 -.6 .7 .1 .7 -.2 .2 .6 .2 .2 -.2 1.0 .3 -.4 .4 .0 1.0 -.2 .2 .6 .2 .0 .7 .3 .0 -.6 .0 -.4 -.2 .4 1.1 .9 .1 .5 .0 .1 -.2 .6 .5 .6 -.6 -.2 .4 .3 .5 .2 -.5 .0 .6 .9 .3 -7.9 -1.6 3.0 5.1 3.1 2.0 6.1 .6 4.8 -1.4 5.1 1.5 1.2 3.2 1.3 .1 3.2 4.9 5.6 .4 -2.0 1.9 2.5 4.0 2.4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -.9 .1 .1 .3 -.5 1.2 1.1 .1 .1 .3 -.4 -.1 .2 .1 .2 .7 .2 .5 -.2 .4 .5 .0 .4 .5 .3 .7 .3 -.8 -.3 .0 -.4 .5 -.7 .1 -.8 .5 .8 1.8 .6 -.3 .3 .7 -.5 -.3 .2 -.2 .7 .7 .8 -.5 .8 .4 -.5 .3 -.2 .3 .0 -.2 .5 -.3 .1 5.3 1.6 .5 .7 5.6 2.2 2.6 .6 3.0 2.5 5.6 -.3 1.5 -3.2 3.4 7.0 2.1 4.5 -2.8 1.7 4.2 3.1 1.2 1.2 2001 2002 2003 -.8 .6 .5 -.4 .1 .3 -.4 .4 -.8 -.1 .3 -.7 -.4 .1 -.1 -.5 .6 -.1 -.3 -.2 .7 -.1 -.2 .0 -.7 -.2 .5 -.4 -.3 .1 -.6 .0 -.4 -.6 -6.0 1.3 .1 -3.8 3.6 -5.0 -4.3 .0 2.8 -5.5 -3.0 -3.9 -1.1 IP (1997=100) 2001 2002 2003 103.7 99.8 100.3 103.2 99.9 100.5 102.9 100.3 99.7 102.7 100.7 99.0 102.3 100.7 98.9 101.8 101.3 98.7 101.5 101.1 99.4 101.3 100.9 99.4 100.6 100.7 99.9 100.2 100.3 99.9 99.6 100.3 99.2 99.8 103.3 100.0 100.2 102.3 100.9 98.9 101.1 100.9 99.6 99.7 100.1 101.6 100.5 Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 2001 2002 2003 129.5 130.7 131.3 129.6 130.8 131.3 129.7 130.8 131.3 129.8 130.9 131.4 129.9 131.0 131.4 130.0 131.0 131.4 130.1 131.1 131.4 130.2 131.2 131.4 130.3 131.2 131.5 130.4 131.2 131.5 130.5 131.3 130.6 131.3 129.6 130.8 131.3 129.9 131.0 131.4 130.2 131.1 131.4 130.5 131.3 130.0 131.0 Utilization (percent) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 80.6 75.3 71.9 79.3 79.6 80.1 76.6 71.5 79.4 80.0 80.4 75.9 72.0 79.8 79.9 79.8 75.1 72.9 80.1 79.9 80.2 74.4 73.4 80.5 79.8 80.5 74.0 73.8 80.6 79.7 80.9 73.6 74.8 80.7 79.1 80.6 72.9 75.7 80.6 79.4 79.8 72.4 76.7 80.2 79.7 79.0 71.7 77.2 80.0 79.2 77.9 71.3 77.4 80.1 79.2 76.9 70.7 77.8 80.0 79.9 80.4 75.9 71.8 79.5 79.8 80.2 74.5 73.4 80.4 79.8 80.4 73.0 75.7 80.5 79.4 77.9 71.2 77.5 80.0 79.4 79.7 73.7 74.6 80.1 79.6 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 80.3 79.2 83.8 85.6 82.7 79.7 80.2 84.2 85.0 83.3 79.0 80.3 84.3 85.2 83.4 78.9 80.7 84.6 85.0 83.3 78.9 81.0 84.4 84.3 83.2 78.8 81.4 84.5 84.2 83.3 79.0 81.8 84.6 83.1 83.0 78.7 82.2 85.0 83.6 83.1 78.8 82.2 84.6 83.2 83.1 79.0 83.3 85.0 82.9 82.4 79.3 83.6 85.1 82.9 81.2 79.8 83.8 85.4 83.3 80.5 79.7 79.9 84.1 85.3 83.1 78.9 81.0 84.5 84.5 83.3 78.8 82.0 84.7 83.3 83.1 79.4 83.6 85.2 83.0 81.4 79.2 81.6 84.6 84.0 82.7 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 80.1 78.9 81.1 82.5 84.6 79.4 79.5 81.3 82.4 84.3 78.8 80.0 81.3 82.9 84.0 78.9 80.4 81.4 83.0 83.6 79.5 80.5 80.9 83.2 83.4 80.2 80.3 81.0 83.6 83.3 80.1 80.8 81.2 83.4 82.6 80.0 80.3 80.9 83.6 83.4 80.6 80.3 81.2 83.5 83.3 80.4 80.7 81.6 83.9 82.6 80.1 81.0 81.8 84.1 82.5 79.6 80.9 82.1 84.7 82.6 79.4 79.5 81.2 82.6 84.3 79.5 80.4 81.1 83.2 83.4 80.2 80.5 81.1 83.5 83.1 80.0 80.9 81.8 84.2 82.6 79.8 80.3 81.3 83.4 83.4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 81.7 83.0 83.9 82.4 82.1 82.5 83.7 83.7 82.3 82.3 82.0 83.4 83.6 82.2 82.4 82.4 83.3 83.8 81.9 82.6 82.6 83.1 83.9 82.1 82.8 83.0 83.0 83.0 81.8 82.7 82.5 83.2 82.2 81.7 82.0 82.8 83.5 83.5 82.1 81.7 82.9 83.9 82.9 81.7 81.8 82.5 84.2 83.2 82.2 81.3 83.0 84.3 82.6 82.3 81.1 83.1 84.0 82.3 82.6 80.8 82.1 83.3 83.7 82.3 82.3 82.7 83.1 83.6 81.9 82.7 82.7 83.5 82.9 81.8 81.8 82.9 84.2 82.7 82.4 81.1 82.6 83.5 83.2 82.1 82.0 2001 2002 2003 80.1 76.4 76.4 79.7 76.4 76.5 79.3 76.7 75.9 79.1 76.9 75.4 78.8 76.9 75.3 78.3 77.3 75.1 78.0 77.1 75.6 77.8 76.9 75.6 77.2 76.7 76.0 76.9 76.4 76.0 76.3 76.4 76.0 76.0 79.7 76.5 76.3 78.7 77.0 75.3 77.7 76.9 75.7 76.4 76.3 78.1 76.7 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. NOTE. Selected high–technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 15 Table 15 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Seasonally adjusted Year IP (percent change) 2 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual -.6 -2.3 2.5 1.8 -.5 -.4 2.6 -.2 .8 -.1 .3 -.8 .9 .6 .7 .5 -.7 1.1 .3 .0 .5 -.4 1.3 .2 .2 -.5 -.1 .7 .3 .1 .2 -.4 1.2 .4 -.4 -.2 -.8 .9 .1 .7 -.7 -.5 1.5 -.4 .2 -1.2 -1.3 1.1 .3 -.4 -1.3 -.7 .2 .2 .5 -1.9 -.6 .3 .3 .3 -.1 -9.7 8.3 11.6 -.3 2.7 -2.6 11.6 5.0 2.5 -1.2 -5.1 13.7 2.3 .7 -12.1 -9.7 10.7 1.1 1.6 .1 -6.5 3.7 8.5 1.4 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1.3 -.8 -.2 .8 -.2 -.5 1.6 .3 -1.1 1.4 -.5 .2 .2 .0 .3 .4 .5 .6 .0 -.2 .1 .5 -.2 -.8 .0 -.1 .5 -.1 .1 .2 .2 .6 .1 -1.4 -.2 .2 .3 .1 .8 .3 .2 .5 .3 -.3 -.1 .3 1.4 .5 -.3 -.8 .4 .5 .3 .0 -1.3 .8 .4 .5 .2 -.8 5.0 4.0 2.2 2.1 3.8 -.2 6.7 3.0 -3.5 2.1 1.3 5.9 .8 -4.4 .3 4.3 9.6 4.6 -.7 -7.3 2.2 4.6 4.4 .4 .0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 -.7 -.8 .9 .3 .2 -.8 1.1 .1 .2 -.3 -.8 .8 -.1 .9 -.2 .4 .4 .4 .5 -.3 .7 .5 -.1 .5 -.2 1.1 .1 -.3 .1 .3 .3 .7 .3 .2 -.9 .1 -.3 -.4 .6 .9 1.1 -.2 .6 .0 .6 -.2 .5 .6 .7 -.6 -.4 .4 .3 .6 -.1 -.3 -.2 .6 1.0 .3 -9.4 -.7 3.8 4.9 3.1 1.4 6.9 1.0 6.4 -2.4 6.7 2.3 .2 3.7 .1 .7 1.8 5.4 6.9 .7 -2.6 2.5 2.5 4.4 2.5 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -1.1 .0 .5 .1 -.5 1.1 1.3 .0 .3 .2 -.5 .1 .0 -.2 .5 .9 .0 .6 -.1 .2 .5 .1 .3 .6 -.1 .8 .4 -1.0 -.5 .0 .0 .3 -.8 -.1 -.6 .4 1.0 2.1 .8 -.6 .4 .6 -.7 -.3 .2 -.3 .6 .9 .9 -.5 .8 .6 -.3 .4 -.6 .6 .1 -.1 .3 -.6 -1.3 6.2 3.0 .4 .5 6.2 2.8 2.0 .6 2.4 4.5 6.1 -.8 .8 -3.8 3.3 7.2 3.8 5.7 -4.7 1.6 4.9 3.5 1.4 1.0 2001 2002 2003 -.8 .6 .7 -.4 .0 -.1 -.4 .3 -.3 -.1 .2 -.7 -.3 .2 -.2 -.6 .5 .0 -.2 -.3 .4 -.4 .0 -.2 -.6 -.2 .7 -.5 -.6 -.1 -.4 -.1 -.3 -.7 -7.2 1.4 .1 -3.5 2.5 -4.3 -4.6 .3 2.0 -5.7 -4.3 -4.6 -1.3 IP (1997=100) 2001 2002 2003 103.1 99.4 99.3 102.7 99.4 99.2 102.3 99.7 98.8 102.2 99.8 98.1 101.9 100.0 97.9 101.3 100.5 98.0 101.1 100.2 98.4 100.7 100.3 98.2 100.0 100.0 98.9 99.5 99.4 98.8 99.1 99.3 98.8 98.6 102.7 99.5 99.1 101.8 100.1 98.0 100.6 100.2 98.5 99.1 99.1 101.1 99.7 Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 2001 2002 2003 132.6 133.0 132.8 132.7 133.0 132.8 132.7 133.0 132.7 132.8 133.0 132.7 132.8 133.0 132.7 132.9 132.9 132.7 132.9 132.9 132.7 133.0 132.9 132.6 133.0 132.9 132.6 133.0 132.9 132.6 133.0 132.8 133.0 132.8 132.7 133.0 132.8 132.8 133.0 132.7 133.0 132.9 132.6 133.0 132.8 132.9 132.9 Utilization (percent) 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 78.0 71.4 69.9 77.8 78.6 77.6 73.1 69.8 78.4 78.3 77.6 72.5 70.4 78.8 78.8 77.8 71.9 71.2 79.0 78.7 78.1 71.6 72.2 79.1 78.7 77.6 71.4 72.7 79.2 78.6 77.7 71.1 73.6 79.4 78.1 77.4 70.4 74.3 79.3 78.5 76.7 70.0 75.4 78.9 78.6 75.7 69.1 76.2 79.0 78.1 74.6 68.6 76.3 79.0 78.4 73.1 68.2 76.5 79.1 78.6 77.7 72.3 70.0 78.3 78.6 77.9 71.6 72.0 79.1 78.6 77.2 70.5 74.4 79.2 78.4 74.5 68.7 76.3 79.0 78.4 76.8 70.8 73.2 78.9 78.5 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 79.6 79.1 83.7 86.1 81.9 79.1 80.3 83.9 85.1 82.9 78.6 80.3 84.1 84.9 82.9 78.9 80.6 84.6 84.8 82.6 78.9 80.9 84.4 84.0 82.5 78.7 81.2 84.4 83.9 82.6 78.7 81.6 84.4 82.6 82.2 78.8 81.8 84.5 83.1 82.4 78.9 82.1 84.7 82.7 82.1 79.0 83.2 85.0 82.3 81.3 79.3 83.6 85.2 82.2 80.2 79.8 83.9 85.5 82.1 79.5 79.1 79.9 83.9 85.4 82.6 78.8 80.9 84.5 84.2 82.6 78.8 81.8 84.5 82.8 82.3 79.4 83.5 85.3 82.2 80.3 79.0 81.5 84.5 83.7 81.9 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 78.8 77.8 80.3 81.1 84.1 78.1 78.5 80.3 81.1 83.6 77.3 79.1 80.1 81.8 83.2 77.5 79.3 80.4 82.1 82.8 77.9 79.6 80.1 82.4 82.4 78.7 79.6 79.8 82.4 82.4 78.8 80.0 80.0 82.4 81.4 78.7 79.7 79.6 82.8 82.0 79.5 79.4 80.0 82.7 82.2 79.2 79.7 80.4 83.2 81.5 78.9 79.9 80.6 83.5 81.2 78.5 79.7 81.0 84.1 81.3 78.1 78.5 80.2 81.3 83.6 78.0 79.5 80.1 82.3 82.5 79.0 79.7 79.9 82.7 81.9 78.9 79.8 80.6 83.6 81.4 78.5 79.4 80.2 82.5 82.3 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 80.2 81.7 83.1 81.3 80.8 80.9 82.5 82.8 81.4 80.8 80.3 82.4 82.6 81.0 81.1 80.9 82.1 82.8 80.8 81.2 81.1 82.0 82.8 81.1 81.1 81.6 82.0 81.7 80.5 81.1 81.4 82.0 80.9 80.3 80.5 81.5 82.5 82.4 80.8 79.9 81.7 82.8 81.6 80.4 80.0 81.3 83.0 82.1 81.0 79.5 81.7 83.2 81.7 81.2 79.0 81.9 82.9 81.4 81.3 78.5 80.5 82.2 82.8 81.2 80.9 81.2 82.1 82.5 80.8 81.1 81.5 82.5 81.6 80.5 80.1 81.6 83.0 81.8 81.2 79.0 81.2 82.4 82.2 80.9 80.3 2001 2002 2003 77.8 74.7 74.8 77.4 74.7 74.7 77.1 74.9 74.5 77.0 75.1 73.9 76.7 75.2 73.8 76.2 75.6 73.9 76.1 75.4 74.2 75.7 75.4 74.0 75.2 75.3 74.6 74.8 74.8 74.5 74.5 74.7 74.3 74.2 77.4 74.8 74.7 76.6 75.3 73.9 75.7 75.4 74.3 74.5 74.6 76.1 75.0 1. See note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. NOTE. Selected high–technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 16 EXPLANATORY NOTE The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly indexes on the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. More detailed descriptions of industrial production, capacity utilization, and electric power are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 1997. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 295 individual series based on the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html) . Changes in output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of the statistical tables, see below. Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on either production-worker hours or electric power use by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on electric power use are described below. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the 17 Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: IA m A I m–1 Imp m–1 Im–1p m–1 Imp m Im–1p m The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 5 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by percentage point (0.05 x 10% = 0.5%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa). Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 55 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about 84 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 95 percent in the third month, and 96 percent in the fourth month. Data availability by data type is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2002) Month of estimate Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 24 34 46 46 Production-worker hours 31 31 31 31 Electric power use 0 19 19 19 IP data received 55 84 95 96 IP data estimated 45 16 5 4 NOTE––The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (24 percent out of total of 46 percent). Of the 24 percent, about two–thirds (15 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of the first month of a quarter. About 4 percent of the source data for monthly IP––all physical product measures––are available too late for direct inclusion in the current index and are incorporated at the time of an annual historical revision. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through September 2003; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 2003. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.28 percent during the 1987–2001 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.22 percentage point during the 1987–2001 period. In most cases (about 84 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. CAPACITY UTILIZATION Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 85 detailed industries (67 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 18 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries account for a bit less than 78 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap_notes.html). Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the 18 individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC (currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the SPC. Perspective. Over the 1972–2002 period, the average total industry utilization rate is 81.3 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate has been 80.2 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. ELECTRIC POWER Coverage. Electric power data for sales by utilities to industry users and for electric power produced by cogenerators (manufacturing and mining firms that produce electricity for their own use or to sell to a utility) are generally collected at the 4-digit NAICS and 3-digit SIC level for mining and manufacturing. Aggregates for 3-digit industries, as well as for total mining, durable, nondurable, total manufacturing and total industrial electric power use, are computed. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. An aggregate showing total industry excluding nuclear nondefense is shown separately because the value-added proportion for the nondefense nuclear material series (part of NAICS 3251) in total IP is considerably less than its share of total electric power use. In addition, aggregates for utility sales to industrial users and industry generation are computed. While only the major aggregates are shown in the release, data for the 3- and 4-digit industries are available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Source Data. Electric power data are collected from a sample of utilities and cogenerators covering all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. The primary criterion for inclusion of a utility in the panel is whether the utility provides electric power to industrial customers. A comparison of Federal Reserve kilowatt-hour aggregates to estimates from the 1997 Census of Manufactures (the most recent available) and recent reporting panel statistics suggests the Federal Reserve data cover about 50 percent of the overall sales to manufacturing in that year. The cogeneration panel covers about 50 percent of cogeneration used directly by manufacturers. In order to provide more complete coverage and correct for any shortcomings of the survey, the series are benchmarked at the 4-digit industry level to the latest available data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufactures. Methodology. The data we receive from utilities and cogenerators are edited for anomalies and aggregated, using self weights, to the 4-digit NAICS industry levels and above. Where reports are late or unavailable for some reason, responses are estimated. Seasonal Adjustment. Series are seasonal adjusted at the 4-digit NAICS level, with seasonally-adjusted aggregates typically computed as sums of seasonally adjusted components. The seasonal adjustment procedure (Census X-12 program) is used without trading-day adjustments because the reporting periods of the various utilities are not the same. A leap year adjustment is also made where appropriate. REFERENCES AND RELEASE DATES References. The annual revision published in November 2003 will be described in an article published in an upcoming Federal Reserve Bulletin. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital_stock_doc-latest.pdf. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus 19 a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2003: January 17, February 14, March 14, April 15, May 15, June 17, July 16, August 15, September 15, October 16, November 14, and December 16. 2004: January 16, February 17, March 15, April 16, May 14, June 16, July 15, August 17, September 15, October 15, November 17, and December 14.
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