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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EDT) May 16, 2007 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April after a decrease of 0.3 percent in March. Output in the manufacturing sector moved up 0.5 percent in April; the increase was led by advances in motor vehicles and parts and in high-technology goods. The output of utilities increased 3.5 percent; temperatures were relatively warm in March but fell below seasonal norms in April. Mining output decreased 0.3 percent in April. At (over) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY Seasonally adjusted 2002=100 Percent change Industrial production 2007 Jan.r 2007 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.p Feb.r Mar.r Apr.p Total index Previous estimates 111.7 111.8 112.6 112.7 112.2 112.5 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 112.7 107.4 128.8 110.0 108.4 111.3 114.1 109.2 129.4 110.1 107.5 111.9 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 113.7 113.7 100.2 105.1 113.0 -.5 -.4 .8 .8 -.3 -.2 .7 1.9 113.5 108.3 130.5 109.8 108.8 111.8 114.5 109.3 131.7 110.5 109.3 112.5 -.8 -.4 -2.5 -.1 -1.2 -.3 1.3 1.7 .4 .1 -.8 .5 -.5 -.8 .9 -.3 1.2 -.1 .9 .9 .9 .6 .4 .6 3.0 2.4 5.7 -.1 -2.1 1.5 113.8 113.8 100.8 112.7 114.4 114.6 100.9 104.3 115.0 -.6 -.6 -2.3 2.5 .0 .1 .6 7.3 .6 .7 .1 -7.5 .5 1.9 -.3 3.5 .8 2.5 Average 1972–2006 1994-95 high Percent of capacity 2001-02 2006 2007 low Apr. Jan.r Total industry Previous estimates 81.0 85.1 73.6 81.9 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 79.8 84.6 71.6 80.7 87.4 86.7 88.9 93.7 84.8 83.8 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.5 82.2 77.8 89.5 88.2 80.5 82.0 74.6 70.0 Capacity utilization 100.6 107.9 Apr. ’06 to Apr. ’07 Capacity growth Apr. ’06 to Apr. ’07 Feb.r Mar.r Apr.p 81.1 81.1 81.6 81.6 81.2 81.4 81.6 2.3 79.7 79.7 90.5 89.6 80.0 80.1 90.6 82.8 80.2 2.5 90.4 85.4 79.8 79.8 90.1 83.7 90.3 85.7 1.0 2.2 88.2 83.8 77.8 88.2 81.9 77.9 89.2 82.5 78.1 89.3 81.5 78.3 88.8 82.1 78.8 .5 2.9 2.1 r Revised. p Preliminary. Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS. 1 113.0 percent of its 2002 average, overall industrial production for April was 1.9 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry rose 0.4 percentage point, to 81.6 percent, a level 0.6 percentage point above its 1972–2006 average. Market Groups All major market groups recorded increases in April. The output of consumer goods rebounded 0.9 percent after having fallen 0.8 percent in March. Production of consumer durables expanded 2.1 percent in April. Apart from the strength in automotive products, the output of home electronics climbed 4.8 percent because of gains in computers produced for households and in audio and video equipment. Also within consumer durables, the indexes for appliances, furniture, and carpeting and for miscellaneous goods increased. Within consumer nondurables, the output of non-energy goods edged up 0.2 percent, as a decline in foods and tobacco was more than offset by increases in clothing, in chemical products, and in paper products. Among consumer energy products, an increase in residential sales by utilities outweighed a decline in the output of fuels. The output of business equipment moved up for a third consecutive month in April; an increase of 0.9 percent was led by gains in transit equipment and in information processing equipment. The rise of 1.9 percent in transit equipment was supported by increases in truck production and continued strength in civilian aircraft. Information processing equipment rose 0.9 percent because of output gains in electromedical equipment and in computers produced for businesses. The output of defense and space equipment rose 1.0 percent after having decreased 2.3 percent in March; this increase reflected a return to work in April at a shipyard affected by a recent strike. The output of construction supplies increased 0.4 percent in April. The output of business supplies advanced 0.7 percent because of strength in the production of medical supplies and in commercial sales of gas and electricity. The production of materials moved up 0.6 percent in April, as gains in both durable and energy materials outweighed a decline in nondurable materials. Within durables, the output of equipment parts rose 1.3 percent; the output of semiconductors advanced for a second consecutive month. The output of consumer parts also increased 1.3 percent; the rise was boosted by increases in the indexes related to motor vehicle parts and steel. The production of other durables increased 0.5 percent. Within nondurable materials, the production of both textiles and chemicals fell, while the output of paper materials remained unchanged. The production of energy materials recovered 0.8 percent in April after having declined 2.4 percent in March. Industry Groups Manufacturing output rose 0.5 percent in April, as a gain in the production of durables outweighed a decline in nondurables. The factory operating rate moved up 0.2 percentage point, to 80.2 percent. The production of durable goods rose 1.1 percent after an increase of 0.7 percent in March. Increases of more than 1.0 percent were recorded in the indexes for computer and electronic products; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; motor vehicles and parts; and miscellaneous manufacturing. These gains more than offset small decreases in the indexes for nonmetallic mineral products, machinery, and furniture and related products. The index for nondurable manufacturing edged down 0.2 percent; declines occurred in the indexes for textile and product mills; food, beverage, and tobacco products; and petroleum and coal products. The decline of 2.8 percent in the production of petroleum and coal products resulted from an unusually high number of refinery shutdowns for seasonal maintenance. The production of non-NAICS manufacturing (logging and publishing) moved up 0.7 percent in April and reversed more than half of the decline seen over the first quarter. The output of natural gas utilities jumped 11.8 percent, and the output of electric utilities rose 2.0 percent. Mining production decreased 0.3 percent in April after having edged up 0.1 percent in March. 2 Capacity utilization for industries in the crude stage of processing moved down 0.5 percentage point, to 88.8 percent, in April. Capacity utilization for industries in the primary and semifinished stages moved up 0.6 percentage point, to 82.1 percent, and capacity utilization for industries at the finished stage increased 0.5 percentage point, to 78.8 percent. Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change Motor Vehicle Assemblies Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Industrial Capacity Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups Historical Statistics: Total Industry Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Further detail is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). 3 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization 160 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Total Manufacturing 135 160 135 110 Capacity 110 85 85 Production Detail: 2003 to present 118 60 60 114 110 Production 106 102 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 98 2005 Percent of capacity 100 95 35 100 95 Utilization 85 85 75 75 65 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 65 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). See note on cover page. 4 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization Consumer goods Ratio scale, 2002=100 Equipment Ratio scale, 2002=100 115 115 140 140 110 110 130 130 105 105 100 Nondurable 120 100 120 Business 95 90 Durable 110 110 90 95 100 100 85 85 80 80 90 75 80 120 120 120 115 115 90 Defense and Space 75 1998 2000 2002 Nonindustrial supplies 2004 2006 Ratio scale, 2002=100 1998 2000 2002 2004 Industrial materials 2006 80 Ratio scale, 2002=100 120 115 115 Non-energy 110 110 Construction 105 100 95 95 100 95 100 105 100 105 110 105 110 95 90 90 85 2000 2002 Capacity utilization 2004 2006 85 85 90 Other business 1998 80 80 85 75 90 2000 2002 2004 2006 85 semifinished 75 Percent of capacity 90 85 Primary and 1998 Capacity utilization Percent of capacity 90 85 90 Energy 90 85 Finished processing processing 80 75 80 80 75 80 75 75 70 70 Excluding utilities 70 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 5 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 70 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 125 115 125 115 Excluding high-technology industries 95 95 75 75 Total IP 55 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 55 1990 1995 Industrial production 2000 2005 35 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1970 1975 Industrial production 1980 1985 1990 Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 Capacity utilization 400 300 400 300 200 150 200 150 Communications eq. 100 Computers -10 2000 2005 95 100 95 Excluding high-technology industries 85 85 75 100 75 65 65 Semiconductors 10 1998 2000 2002 -15 Percent of capacity 100 50 50 1995 -5 High-technology industries 2004 2006 10 55 1990 1995 2000 2005 55 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 6 Table 1 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item 2006 proportion1 Q4 Feb.r Mar.r Apr.p 100.00 4.0 -1.5 .9 -.5 .8 -.3 .7 1.9 5.7 3.0 1.0 -1.8 44.2 -1.6 .4 3.7 2.9 .2 5.3 6.6 5.7 6.1 3.9 2.6 -4.6 -10.1 -9.7 -5.1 5.6 5.0 3.0 1.3 -1.4 7.8 .6 10.9 -.3 -.1 -4.0 -3.4 8.1 -8.4 -4.4 1.2 4.4 7.0 -2.6 -1.4 9.8 -8.0 1.1 2.8 -.4 -.2 49.4 -6.7 -4.1 3.8 2.9 6.4 .7 -2.4 -.5 7.2 -.6 -.4 -3.0 -5.4 2.2 -1.7 -.9 .5 -.1 .2 1.9 -1.0 .1 2.4 1.0 1.7 1.8 3.8 7.0 -.2 -.9 1.7 .0 .5 -1.4 -.8 .6 7.0 -.4 -.8 .3 .3 .3 -.1 .4 -1.2 .4 1.0 -.8 -.6 .1 -6.2 .8 .9 2.1 3.7 4.8 .4 .3 .5 .2 -.5 .9 1.2 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.4 .4 1.5 17.6 -5.7 -.7 3.0 2.6 3.1 -1.1 1.3 3.3 4.1 9.7 16.9 10.1 6.9 2.3 17.2 12.5 29.8 12.4 3.8 10.4 10.1 8.0 11.9 5.6 5.0 11.2 7.7 1.2 -3.1 -1.2 -.5 9.8 -7.2 .0 -2.5 -1.8 .2 -4.2 1.3 .4 .5 1.4 -.2 -.6 .9 -.3 .9 1.3 -2.3 .9 1.9 .9 .4 1.0 5.7 7.5 10.4 2.4 .2 3.2 3.5 6.5 2.6 1.8 -.2 -3.2 14.2 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.3 -10.5 3.8 3.2 3.7 4.8 2.7 2.3 -1.8 16.8 3.1 6.4 2.9 3.4 4.8 -.3 .9 2.2 1.7 2.6 1.1 -2.5 -4.6 13.1 -4.7 -.6 2.2 2.7 2.2 .7 3.8 3.3 .7 5.3 6.0 7.2 3.9 2.5 11.2 20.5 13.7 6.7 3.8 4.55 11.02 8.0 3.4 -2.1 2.4 .6 5.0 -.9 3.3 -8.9 -1.0 -.8 -.7 -1.2 .3 -.8 .5 1.2 -.9 .4 .7 -2.1 .8 1.6 2.9 42.57 30.80 19.15 3.30 6.64 9.21 11.64 .60 2.30 5.49 11.77 3.4 4.8 5.4 .2 9.4 4.5 3.8 -3.4 3.9 7.7 -.2 1.1 3.5 7.0 1.7 16.0 2.7 -2.1 .2 -.2 -6.5 -4.2 4.7 4.5 5.6 -3.2 19.4 -.7 2.6 -7.3 2.5 4.7 5.4 7.6 7.0 10.3 4.7 20.6 5.1 1.7 -7.8 .3 4.4 9.1 4.3 4.9 6.6 -8.3 27.9 -1.9 2.3 -4.2 3.8 4.7 2.5 -3.1 -4.0 -3.9 -9.8 10.3 -11.6 -4.2 -13.3 2.8 -10.2 -.7 .5 .5 .4 -2.4 -1.9 3.3 .5 -9.1 -3.6 7.4 .7 -.3 -.5 -.3 -1.7 -.5 .4 -1.0 -2.6 -3.1 .2 .2 .5 .1 -.2 .2 -.9 .1 .5 .3 1.0 1.1 1.8 -.1 .8 .9 1.0 .8 .9 .5 .1 -.1 1.1 -2.4 .6 .5 .9 1.3 1.3 .5 -.1 -1.1 .0 -.4 .8 1.5 1.5 2.4 -4.7 11.2 -1.3 .0 -8.2 1.0 1.5 1.3 321 327 331 332 333 334 81.86 77.70 41.46 1.39 2.43 3.25 5.63 5.12 7.51 3.4 3.5 3.7 1.8 3.8 7.4 1.6 5.0 10.2 4.4 4.6 7.9 10.5 5.8 -2.3 6.1 8.2 18.3 3.4 3.6 4.7 -14.5 -1.9 -3.5 3.8 5.3 18.3 5.5 5.7 9.4 -10.8 -2.1 14.7 5.8 8.6 27.4 4.4 4.8 5.5 -11.8 -5.2 -6.8 5.3 19.9 20.6 -1.7 -2.1 -1.5 -25.5 -9.3 -28.2 -1.4 -3.1 14.6 .9 1.2 -.3 -8.3 -5.2 11.1 -.2 -9.9 3.8 -.6 -.7 -1.3 -1.8 -1.0 4.2 -.4 -5.1 -.2 .0 .1 .2 -.7 -3.0 1.0 .5 -.9 .2 .6 .6 .7 -1.9 1.7 .7 .8 1.9 .8 .5 .5 1.1 .6 -.3 .8 .1 -.3 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.7 -13.3 -5.7 -3.9 1.3 .8 13.8 Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy Q3 9.95 2.03 2.78 5.14 1.75 Construction supplies Business supplies 3.0 57.43 29.36 7.16 3.33 .36 1.23 2.24 22.19 16.90 9.18 .59 4.83 1.79 5.29 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 2006 Apr. ’06 to Apr. ’07 2007 Jan.r M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy 2005 Monthly rate 2007 Q1r Total IP 2004 Annual rate 2006 Q2 I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous 335 3361–3 2.03 5.54 2.0 -1.6 3.8 .2 2.4 -3.8 6.5 .0 1.9 -9.8 -3.3 -4.0 5.5 -8.0 -.5 -5.9 .9 2.4 .4 .2 1.4 3.3 2.7 -1.9 3364–9 337 339 3.76 1.57 3.22 2.0 3.5 2.2 15.0 1.7 8.7 14.7 -1.2 4.8 14.8 6.9 4.9 12.4 -3.2 5.8 9.0 -6.9 7.9 11.3 -7.4 1.5 1.9 -.9 -.6 .4 -.5 -.5 -.4 .2 1.5 .8 -.2 1.6 9.7 -4.1 6.3 Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 36.24 10.80 1.05 .64 2.61 2.05 3.83 11.81 3.46 3.2 1.2 -.7 -9.6 3.0 1.9 10.0 6.1 .8 .9 5.3 2.0 .4 -.1 1.9 -3.6 -2.5 3.0 2.3 2.6 -7.7 -.1 -.1 5.2 2.6 3.8 .2 1.7 .3 -6.7 4.1 -2.0 5.6 -4.4 5.1 5.5 4.1 1.1 -5.5 -1.4 2.1 -1.5 17.4 5.7 1.9 -2.9 7.4 -14.6 -3.9 -.4 8.4 -13.4 -7.5 -8.9 3.1 5.8 -7.5 -.2 -7.9 4.0 7.4 1.9 6.2 .1 .1 -1.3 1.7 -3.1 -.7 3.8 -.5 .7 -.1 .4 .0 -1.4 .5 .5 -2.7 .4 -.7 .5 .9 -.5 -.6 -.5 .1 .6 .3 1.1 -.2 -.5 -.4 .7 .0 .7 -2.8 .2 1.2 1.3 2.9 -8.1 -1.6 -1.2 2.9 2.2 .7 1.1 1133,5111 4.16 2.6 .6 .2 1.5 -3.9 7.5 -4.8 -.2 -.5 -.4 .7 -.8 21 2211,2 2211 2212 8.58 9.55 8.04 1.51 -.8 1.6 2.2 -1.4 -5.5 2.1 3.4 -3.4 8.0 .3 .0 1.9 7.9 14.3 11.5 28.8 .6 4.6 1.7 19.9 3.0 -3.6 -2.9 -7.3 -3.0 3.7 4.0 2.8 -2.3 2.5 2.1 4.6 .6 7.3 4.9 20.4 .1 -7.5 -5.8 -15.9 -.3 3.5 2.0 11.8 .8 2.5 .9 10.6 Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Under the industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of a NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year. 7 Table 2 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item 2006 proportion 2006 Q3 100.00 Q4 Feb. 3.2 3.5 6.5 4.0 -1.5 .9 -.5 .8 -.3 .7 1.9 1.5 3.7 4.5 8.3 2.1 -1.3 -1.8 1.7 .5 11.8 -2.5 -4.9 4.0 .7 2.3 14.7 2.2 6.8 8.7 6.1 6.9 31.6 18.1 5.3 5.8 10.9 8.7 11.8 6.7 .8 -2.8 -8.0 -2.5 .5 -8.9 3.4 2.5 7.2 -.6 8.6 1.4 .4 1.2 2.4 3.3 1.3 .8 .0 3.2 7.0 2.7 .6 4.0 .8 -3.7 -6.2 -5.2 -.4 -4.0 -1.6 .9 1.5 1.1 -1.4 2.4 .1 2.1 4.1 .8 5.1 2.0 .9 79.47 3.3 4.6 3.3 5.9 3.5 -1.1 .5 -.9 .2 .6 .7 1.8 3341 3342 4.84 1.20 1.06 10.4 6.6 6.2 28.1 30.4 12.9 24.6 12.1 14.8 33.7 48.2 38.8 27.3 2.3 6.6 24.7 24.4 9.6 10.2 37.0 27.2 .6 2.8 2.1 .3 3.6 2.5 1.8 3.2 2.0 2.6 2.2 .5 21.6 24.5 15.3 334412–9 2.58 13.7 33.8 34.8 25.7 51.3 31.1 -6.6 -1.1 -2.2 1.0 3.8 22.6 74.63 2.8 3.1 1.9 4.2 2.0 -2.7 -.2 -1.0 .2 .5 .5 .5 5.54 2.41 2.72 -1.6 -3.0 -1.1 .2 -2.5 1.3 -3.8 -6.0 -.2 .0 -2.0 7.1 -9.8 -16.9 -3.5 -4.0 -5.2 -3.4 -8.0 -11.1 -4.3 -5.9 -9.5 -2.7 2.4 5.6 .3 .2 -.5 1.0 3.3 5.8 1.6 -1.9 -2.3 -.9 69.09 20.91 7.81 4.52 7.93 26.14 3.2 2.4 4.4 1.5 2.1 4.4 3.4 3.6 8.9 8.0 3.1 .7 2.4 1.8 10.2 -2.2 1.0 2.3 4.5 2.6 14.6 .3 3.1 4.8 3.1 2.7 13.0 -1.0 -.3 2.3 -2.6 2.0 4.0 -9.1 -1.8 -7.0 .4 1.7 -3.2 -1.1 -.6 1.3 -.6 -.3 -2.7 -1.2 -.6 -.3 .0 .0 .0 -.9 -.1 .2 .5 .3 1.0 1.2 .6 .7 .3 .3 .6 .4 .4 .1 .7 1.6 4.9 -2.3 -.2 -.2 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 95.16 77.02 36.79 2.5 3.0 2.8 1.9 2.9 5.2 2.4 2.0 2.0 5.2 3.8 6.2 2.9 3.0 2.5 -2.7 -3.3 -4.7 .4 .3 -1.6 -.5 -.7 -1.5 .8 .0 .2 -.4 .5 .5 .6 .4 .9 .9 .7 .3 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 94.46 76.32 36.09 3.3 3.9 4.8 3.4 4.7 9.3 3.9 3.9 6.0 6.9 5.9 10.9 4.9 5.5 7.9 -1.3 -1.5 -1.0 1.4 1.6 1.0 -.2 -.3 -.6 .7 -.1 -.1 -.3 .6 .8 .6 .3 .8 2.1 2.2 3.5 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 89.62 71.48 2.9 3.4 2.1 3.1 2.8 2.5 5.5 4.1 3.7 4.0 -2.7 -3.2 .9 1.0 -.2 -.3 .7 -.1 -.4 .5 .4 .1 1.1 .9 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 12.85 17.95 5.2 4.4 8.3 -.1 9.0 1.3 11.2 3.9 11.9 .1 2.6 -8.6 -2.7 2.8 -1.4 .1 -.2 .3 .7 .8 1.0 .2 4.3 -.5 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 3361–3 3361 3363 3.0 20.53 5.29 2.74 .72 3.79 7.98 Apr. ’06 to Apr. ’07 2007 Jan.r Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 2005 Monthly rate 2007 Q1r Total industry 2004 Annual rate 2006 Q2 r Mar. r Apr. p r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 3 M OTOR V EHICLE A SSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2006 average 2006 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 11.26 4.37 6.89 6.43 .46 11.56 4.35 7.21 6.76 .45 10.98 4.28 6.69 6.21 .49 10.96 4.38 6.57 6.13 .45 10.52 3.93 6.60 6.24 .35 10.27 4.14 6.13 5.75 .38 10.69 3.89 6.80 6.44 .36 10.60 3.75 6.85 6.54 .31 11.17 3.80 7.37 7.02 .35 Memo Autos and light trucks 10.80 11.11 10.49 10.51 10.17 9.89 10.33 10.29 10.82 Item NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 8 Table 4 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY 2002 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2006 proportion 2006 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2007 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.p 100.00 112.5 112.2 112.0 111.5 112.2 111.7 112.6 112.2 113.0 57.43 29.36 7.16 3.33 .36 1.23 2.24 22.19 16.90 9.18 .59 4.83 1.79 5.29 112.5 107.8 106.2 99.6 168.2 105.4 109.5 108.2 107.7 108.7 79.5 112.4 101.0 109.8 112.2 107.6 105.4 98.4 174.1 103.4 109.2 108.2 108.3 109.8 79.1 112.1 102.0 108.4 112.0 107.3 102.8 94.5 171.1 102.0 108.3 108.7 108.7 110.2 80.0 111.6 104.7 109.0 111.9 107.6 104.4 98.2 173.1 101.9 107.5 108.5 108.8 111.2 79.1 110.4 103.9 107.8 112.6 107.8 106.2 100.6 180.7 102.2 108.4 108.2 109.8 111.8 78.9 112.9 103.3 103.7 111.9 107.4 103.1 95.2 184.6 100.5 107.4 108.7 109.7 112.1 80.4 111.8 103.3 106.1 113.0 109.2 104.9 98.8 197.5 100.2 106.5 110.5 109.8 112.6 79.3 110.9 104.0 113.5 112.5 108.3 105.2 99.1 198.1 100.2 106.9 109.2 110.2 113.7 78.7 110.2 104.1 106.5 113.4 109.3 107.4 102.7 207.6 100.6 107.2 109.8 110.4 113.1 79.4 111.5 105.1 108.1 9.95 2.03 2.78 5.14 1.75 128.6 141.2 139.5 118.4 113.0 128.5 140.7 140.8 117.8 113.6 128.4 141.1 141.9 116.9 113.3 129.5 146.0 142.5 117.0 112.0 132.1 146.8 144.0 120.7 112.5 128.8 144.2 144.4 115.6 113.9 129.4 144.8 146.4 115.4 113.2 130.5 144.4 147.8 117.0 110.6 131.7 147.2 149.2 117.5 111.7 4.55 11.02 111.3 111.5 110.3 110.8 108.4 111.9 107.4 110.5 109.7 110.3 108.4 110.6 107.5 111.2 108.8 110.2 109.3 111.0 42.57 30.80 19.15 3.30 6.64 9.21 11.64 .60 2.30 5.49 11.77 112.6 117.6 125.9 101.1 166.6 110.6 104.9 86.7 100.8 111.7 100.9 112.2 117.4 125.9 100.0 168.5 110.1 104.5 84.8 101.4 110.5 100.0 112.0 116.4 124.9 97.5 169.6 108.6 103.7 83.8 100.9 108.5 101.3 111.0 115.4 123.7 97.6 170.0 106.1 102.9 82.6 100.7 107.3 100.6 111.7 116.6 124.7 98.5 170.8 107.3 104.2 83.3 103.2 108.7 100.2 111.3 115.9 124.4 96.8 169.8 107.8 103.2 81.1 100.1 108.9 100.5 111.9 116.0 124.1 97.0 168.4 107.9 103.7 81.3 101.0 110.1 102.3 111.8 116.9 125.2 98.0 169.7 108.9 104.2 81.4 100.9 111.3 99.9 112.5 117.5 126.4 99.3 172.0 109.5 104.1 80.5 100.9 110.9 100.7 321 327 331 332 333 334 81.86 77.70 41.46 1.39 2.43 3.25 5.63 5.12 7.51 114.3 115.4 122.6 107.4 113.3 114.5 110.7 121.0 174.0 114.3 115.3 122.2 104.8 110.6 112.8 110.5 120.6 177.2 113.4 114.3 121.2 100.4 109.1 109.2 110.5 118.1 179.3 113.2 114.1 121.3 98.0 109.1 103.8 109.7 117.6 180.0 114.4 115.4 122.7 100.3 111.0 102.7 109.8 122.6 181.7 113.7 114.7 121.2 98.5 109.8 107.1 109.3 116.4 181.3 113.8 114.7 121.4 97.8 106.6 108.2 109.8 115.3 181.7 114.4 115.4 122.3 96.0 108.4 108.9 110.7 117.5 183.0 115.0 116.0 123.6 96.5 108.0 109.8 110.8 117.2 186.7 335 3361–3 2.03 5.54 107.6 102.2 105.1 100.9 105.5 97.3 105.1 100.7 107.1 102.4 106.5 96.4 107.5 98.7 107.9 99.0 109.4 102.3 3364–9 337 339 3.76 1.57 3.22 124.6 106.4 118.1 125.2 104.7 118.0 126.3 104.2 118.8 127.7 103.4 120.0 128.3 102.7 121.0 130.7 101.8 120.2 131.2 101.3 119.6 130.8 101.4 121.3 131.8 101.2 123.2 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 36.24 10.80 1.05 .64 2.61 2.05 3.83 11.81 3.46 107.5 108.9 92.8 80.6 98.7 102.7 112.8 112.4 107.1 107.8 110.1 91.3 80.2 99.3 103.1 115.3 111.7 106.1 106.7 110.6 89.8 80.9 98.3 104.1 110.4 110.1 104.4 106.2 111.5 88.6 80.0 97.9 104.3 108.5 108.8 103.9 107.4 112.2 88.6 79.7 99.5 106.3 108.9 110.5 105.6 107.5 112.3 87.4 81.1 96.4 105.6 113.0 109.9 106.3 107.4 112.8 87.4 80.0 96.9 106.1 110.0 110.3 105.5 107.9 113.9 87.0 79.5 96.4 106.2 110.7 110.7 106.7 107.7 113.3 86.7 80.1 96.4 106.9 107.6 110.9 108.0 1133,5111 4.16 97.0 97.2 99.6 99.4 98.7 98.4 98.0 97.6 98.2 21 2211,2 2211 2212 8.58 9.55 8.04 1.51 99.9 108.8 111.0 98.4 101.0 104.5 105.5 100.0 100.9 109.8 110.6 106.0 100.7 106.8 108.8 97.6 102.5 102.5 105.8 87.0 100.2 105.1 108.1 91.0 100.8 112.7 113.4 109.6 100.9 104.3 106.9 92.1 100.6 107.9 109.0 102.9 Item Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Refer to notes on table 1. 9 Table 5 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : S PECIAL AGGREGATES 2002 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2006 proportion 2006 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2007 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.p 100.00 112.5 112.2 112.0 111.5 112.2 111.7 112.6 112.2 113.0 20.53 5.29 2.74 .72 3.79 7.98 106.0 109.8 115.6 170.5 106.3 98.2 104.9 108.4 114.0 171.6 102.4 98.7 106.4 109.0 118.5 170.6 104.9 99.5 104.9 107.8 113.0 167.7 102.9 99.3 103.3 103.7 110.0 170.3 101.3 99.5 104.6 106.1 113.7 172.6 102.1 99.5 108.0 113.5 116.7 173.7 106.2 100.3 104.0 106.5 110.7 173.0 101.9 98.7 105.0 108.1 111.9 170.6 104.4 98.8 79.47 114.2 114.1 113.5 113.3 114.6 113.6 113.7 114.4 115.2 3341 3342 4.84 1.20 1.06 204.3 153.7 149.3 210.7 158.3 154.2 214.4 161.4 152.9 216.2 163.7 155.0 218.6 166.6 157.8 219.9 171.3 161.1 220.6 177.5 165.1 224.5 183.1 168.4 230.4 187.1 169.3 334412–9 2.58 262.9 271.2 278.4 279.4 281.0 278.0 271.9 274.7 285.1 74.63 109.5 109.1 108.3 108.1 109.4 108.2 108.4 109.0 109.5 5.54 2.41 2.72 102.2 101.7 100.8 100.9 99.3 100.2 97.3 93.8 98.1 100.7 99.7 99.5 102.4 102.2 100.4 96.4 92.4 97.7 98.7 97.6 98.0 99.0 97.1 99.0 102.3 102.7 100.6 69.09 20.91 7.81 4.52 7.93 26.14 110.1 108.0 122.9 110.8 106.2 109.5 109.8 108.4 122.2 109.8 105.7 109.0 109.3 108.4 122.3 107.9 105.6 107.9 108.7 108.4 123.0 106.8 105.4 106.5 110.0 109.4 125.6 109.2 106.1 107.6 109.3 109.1 122.2 107.9 105.4 107.3 109.2 109.1 122.2 106.9 105.3 107.5 109.8 109.4 123.4 108.2 105.9 108.3 110.2 109.7 124.2 108.7 106.3 108.4 95.16 77.02 36.79 108.7 109.7 113.5 108.2 109.4 112.6 107.9 108.4 111.2 107.4 108.2 111.2 108.0 109.3 112.6 107.4 108.5 110.9 108.3 108.6 111.1 107.9 109.1 111.7 108.5 109.5 112.7 94.46 76.32 36.09 113.2 115.3 126.3 112.9 115.4 126.1 113.0 114.8 125.5 112.2 114.3 125.0 112.9 115.4 126.5 112.7 115.1 125.8 113.5 115.0 125.6 113.1 115.7 126.6 113.7 116.0 127.6 89.62 71.48 109.1 110.3 108.6 110.1 108.6 109.3 107.8 108.8 108.4 109.9 108.1 109.5 108.9 109.4 108.4 109.9 108.9 110.1 12.85 17.95 128.9 109.3 129.4 108.7 128.8 107.5 128.9 105.8 130.1 106.9 128.3 107.0 128.0 107.3 128.9 108.2 130.2 108.4 Item Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 6 D IFFUSION I NDEXES OF I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Percent Item One month earlier 2005 2006 2007 Three months earlier 2005 2006 2007 Six months earlier 2005 2006 2007 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 54.8 63.4 46.9 50.5 48.2 56.4 52.1 58.7 58.4 52.5 60.4 56.4 50.2 56.1 61.1 56.8 59.4 51.2 51.2 61.1 46.5 58.4 41.6 58.4 43.2 52.1 59.4 58.7 61.4 45.2 61.4 56.8 55.1 54.8 63.0 51.8 53.1 59.7 57.8 56.1 60.1 61.1 57.8 58.1 57.8 57.4 56.8 52.5 56.1 43.2 56.4 36.6 57.8 45.5 58.7 59.1 36.3 57.4 57.4 43.6 59.7 64.0 41.9 58.1 63.0 62.7 62.0 59.1 64.0 61.1 61.4 55.8 64.4 62.4 59.4 63.0 47.5 59.4 44.2 56.4 46.9 NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 10 Table 7 C APACITY U TILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 2006 proportion 19722006 ave. 198889 high 199495 high 200102 low 2006 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1r 2007 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.p 100.00 81.0 85.0 85.1 73.6 82.0 82.3 81.5 81.3 81.1 81.6 81.2 81.6 31–33 82.52 78.53 79.8 79.6 85.4 85.3 84.6 84.7 71.6 71.0 80.6 80.4 80.9 80.8 80.1 79.9 79.8 79.6 79.8 79.6 79.7 79.5 80.0 79.8 80.2 80.0 321 327 331 332 333 334 42.55 1.41 2.34 2.86 5.63 5.14 8.43 78.0 80.2 79.5 80.8 77.3 78.7 78.3 84.5 88.2 85.1 93.8 81.6 85.2 81.4 84.2 87.7 84.1 95.6 85.1 87.6 84.3 68.1 71.0 75.8 68.5 69.2 63.7 58.6 79.3 83.3 84.1 89.9 79.9 79.0 76.1 79.5 80.4 82.3 88.8 80.7 82.1 77.2 78.5 74.3 79.6 82.2 80.2 80.9 77.3 77.7 72.5 78.0 84.6 79.9 78.3 75.4 77.6 73.4 79.3 83.9 79.5 78.5 76.0 77.5 72.8 76.8 84.7 79.8 77.6 75.3 77.8 71.4 78.0 85.2 80.4 78.8 74.9 78.4 71.8 77.6 85.8 80.3 78.4 75.5 335 3361–3 1.90 5.92 83.2 77.5 89.1 89.7 93.1 89.0 71.8 68.9 85.3 77.8 85.4 75.6 84.3 74.7 85.0 73.5 84.5 72.1 85.2 74.0 85.4 74.4 86.5 77.1 3364–9 337 339 3.96 1.61 3.36 72.5 78.5 76.7 87.1 82.2 82.5 68.5 82.9 81.3 62.8 67.8 70.6 75.8 80.0 77.7 77.6 79.5 78.1 78.8 78.3 78.8 80.4 76.8 78.3 80.5 77.1 78.5 80.6 76.7 77.7 80.2 76.8 78.6 80.6 76.5 79.5 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 35.98 10.67 1.09 .70 2.46 2.08 3.77 12.01 3.20 81.7 81.6 82.3 78.7 87.8 83.7 86.2 78.3 83.9 86.8 85.9 91.2 84.3 92.5 91.8 89.0 85.1 89.8 85.4 84.1 91.4 87.1 92.0 86.4 90.6 81.4 91.9 74.9 75.6 68.8 59.5 78.9 72.7 83.7 70.2 75.1 81.8 81.2 78.9 73.6 84.8 80.1 89.3 78.5 87.9 82.4 81.1 78.3 74.1 85.4 79.3 93.1 79.5 87.5 81.6 82.2 75.8 74.1 85.5 80.5 90.1 77.7 84.8 82.0 82.9 74.8 74.8 83.9 80.8 92.0 77.9 85.3 82.0 82.6 74.7 75.4 83.7 80.7 93.4 77.7 85.7 81.9 82.8 74.9 74.6 84.2 80.9 90.9 77.9 84.8 82.2 83.5 74.7 74.4 83.8 80.9 91.6 78.1 85.6 82.0 82.9 74.6 75.1 83.8 81.3 89.0 78.2 86.4 1133,5111 3.99 84.7 91.0 83.3 81.3 84.3 83.2 84.6 83.3 83.8 83.3 82.9 83.4 21 2211,2 8.25 9.23 87.4 86.7 86.1 92.7 88.9 93.7 84.8 83.8 91.0 85.9 90.9 86.4 91.3 85.0 90.4 85.4 90.1 83.7 90.5 89.6 90.6 82.8 90.3 85.7 3341 3342 5.48 1.39 1.29 78.0 78.1 75.4 80.8 79.9 80.8 87.4 84.2 86.6 56.2 62.8 40.2 77.2 74.6 70.8 78.7 74.5 71.8 79.7 78.3 73.3 78.0 83.0 77.5 78.6 81.1 75.9 77.7 83.2 77.6 77.8 84.7 79.0 78.6 85.1 79.1 334412–9 2.80 80.6 82.9 93.5 58.1 81.3 83.5 82.7 75.5 78.1 74.7 73.7 74.9 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 94.52 77.04 81.2 79.9 85.4 85.9 85.0 84.5 74.7 72.8 82.3 80.9 82.6 81.3 81.8 80.3 81.6 80.2 81.4 80.1 81.9 80.0 81.5 80.3 82.0 80.6 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 12.41 48.00 39.59 86.5 82.2 77.8 88.1 86.5 82.8 89.5 88.2 80.5 82.0 74.6 70.0 88.8 83.9 77.6 89.4 84.1 77.9 89.1 82.3 78.2 88.9 82.0 78.1 88.2 81.9 77.9 89.2 82.5 78.1 89.3 81.5 78.3 88.8 82.1 78.8 Item Total industry 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. 11 Table 8 I NDUSTRIAL C APACITY Percent change Item 197279 Average annual rate 1980198988 94 Fourth quarter to fourth quarter 19952007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 Q3 Annual rate 2007 Q4 Q1 Q2 Monthly rate 2007 Apr. Total industry 3.1 2.0 2.3 3.3 .1 1.1 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 .2 Manufacturing1 3.3 2.3 2.6 3.7 .0 1.7 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 .2 Mining Utilities .8 4.3 .1 2.1 -.9 1.6 -.5 2.2 -.3 2.6 -1.7 .0 .6 2.1 .7 1.3 1.0 2.5 1.1 2.5 1.0 2.1 .6 1.3 .0 .1 20.9 19.1 17.3 27.3 4.3 18.3 19.6 20.9 18.2 18.5 19.8 21.1 1.6 2.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 -.2 .6 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 .1 1.7 3.0 3.9 .3 1.4 3.5 -.4 2.6 2.7 -.1 3.9 3.5 -.1 .4 .5 -1.1 1.4 2.0 .3 3.0 2.3 .7 2.5 2.2 .5 3.1 2.2 .5 3.0 2.1 .6 2.8 2.1 .6 2.5 2.2 .0 .2 .2 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing1 ex. selected high-technology industries S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 9 G ROSS VALUE OF F INAL P RODUCTS AND N ONINDUSTRIAL S UPPLIES Billions of 2000 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 2000 2006 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1r 2007 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.p 2,812.5 3,043.0 3,012.9 3,045.3 3,075.0 3,060.2 3,066.8 3,052.7 3,083.4 3,064.4 3,085.4 2,112.0 1,480.7 471.7 278.9 192.9 1,009.0 2,302.3 1,606.0 504.6 296.1 208.2 1,097.5 2,276.5 1,600.7 511.4 303.3 207.9 1,087.3 2,302.5 1,607.9 511.4 301.5 209.6 1,094.0 2,327.4 1,619.6 503.1 293.1 209.6 1,111.5 2,321.5 1,610.7 498.2 291.1 206.7 1,107.0 2,328.4 1,624.0 496.9 289.9 206.6 1,120.5 2,314.7 1,611.7 489.4 282.5 206.3 1,115.1 2,342.9 1,638.0 500.4 293.3 206.8 1,130.8 2,327.6 1,622.2 500.8 293.9 206.6 1,115.7 2,345.1 1,632.9 513.8 305.3 208.4 1,115.0 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 631.3 614.9 556.8 58.2 706.0 689.1 619.8 71.4 683.0 666.1 596.4 71.0 704.0 686.5 617.0 71.5 718.4 701.3 631.4 72.2 722.2 706.0 637.4 71.4 714.5 697.5 628.1 71.7 713.5 696.5 626.3 72.3 714.4 697.2 627.2 72.1 715.6 698.7 630.9 70.7 722.7 706.4 638.1 71.2 Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 700.5 197.2 503.3 136.0 741.1 207.8 533.2 154.7 736.6 209.3 527.2 152.4 743.1 209.6 533.4 154.4 748.1 209.2 538.9 157.7 739.6 204.0 535.7 156.3 739.4 203.7 535.9 155.9 738.7 204.0 534.9 155.9 741.7 202.5 539.5 159.7 737.9 204.7 533.2 152.0 741.5 205.7 535.8 153.0 Item Final products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable r Revised. p Preliminary. Table 10 G ROSS -VALUE -W EIGHTED I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S TAGE - OF -P ROCESS G ROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Finished Semifinished Primary Crude 2006 gross value1 2004 2005 1980.5 1754.9 992.6 420.0 2.4 2.4 4.5 5.2 5.6 6.2 -.8 -8.3 Annual rate 2006 2006 Q2 Q3 3.4 2.5 .1 7.1 6.1 5.9 4.4 6.5 2.3 5.7 5.0 2.5 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Billions of 2000 dollars. 12 Monthly rate Q4 2007 Q1r 2007 Jan.r Feb. 2.3 -2.7 -13.3 -3.4 -.9 -.6 5.5 1.3 -2.0 -.4 2.4 -1.5 .6 .6 1.3 1.4 r Mar. r .1 -.2 -1.7 .7 Apr. p 1.1 1.0 .1 -.5 Apr. ’06 to Apr. ’07 2.1 1.4 .2 1.1 Table 11 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)1 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.3 .5 -.3 .0 .2 .4 -.8 1.3 .4 -.5 .2 -.6 .2 .3 .3 -.2 .1 .6 .5 .0 .1 .2 .7 -.1 -.7 .1 -.3 .5 .2 .0 -.6 .6 .6 .2 -.9 .5 -.2 .7 .5 1.0 .4 .2 .3 -.3 -.3 -.4 .4 1.5 .6 -.1 .3 .5 .5 .2 .3 1.0 .9 .5 .4 .7 1.2 2.4 5.4 3.4 1.5 .7 -2.4 7.2 3.4 -1.8 -.5 1.7 7.3 2.1 -2.4 2.7 4.6 9.9 3.3 1.8 1.4 1.1 5.1 5.1 .9 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.6 -.5 -.5 .5 .5 .9 -.7 .7 .3 .0 .5 -.5 .8 .0 1.0 -.1 .2 .7 .3 .5 .2 1.0 .4 -.4 .5 .3 1.0 .1 .3 .7 -.2 .0 .8 .4 .2 .3 .2 -.5 .0 .5 .2 .9 .2 .5 .3 -.7 -.2 .7 .8 .9 -1.2 -.1 .4 .4 .7 -.7 -.3 .1 .6 1.1 3.0 -7.6 -.3 3.7 5.6 2.8 2.7 7.1 1.1 7.3 1.4 5.7 3.1 2.4 5.1 -5.9 1.0 4.0 6.4 8.3 1.0 -1.5 2.9 3.4 5.5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .4 -.8 .2 .5 .6 .1 1.5 1.2 .1 .5 .1 -.2 .8 .0 .2 -.1 .9 -.1 .5 .2 .2 .7 .6 .7 .8 .3 .9 .4 -.5 -.1 -.4 -.2 .5 -.3 .7 1.3 .7 1.3 2.2 .5 .4 .5 .9 -.2 -.4 -.2 .0 .8 .7 1.3 .3 .9 1.0 -.1 .6 .3 .7 .4 .4 .9 6.0 2.0 8.3 4.7 4.9 1.0 8.4 5.5 3.3 4.0 3.8 5.2 9.0 3.8 4.4 3.5 6.1 11.1 5.3 8.2 5.0 4.3 7.2 6.1 4.7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 .1 -.7 .5 .6 .2 .4 -.6 .1 .3 .7 .4 -.4 .8 -.2 -.6 .8 -.3 .4 -.8 .6 .3 -.7 .4 -.1 .6 .1 -.6 .9 .2 -.7 -.3 -.4 -.3 .4 .6 -.3 -.4 .2 -.1 .2 .5 -.4 .1 .5 -.2 -.5 -.6 -.3 -.1 .7 .0 -.5 .4 .8 .2 -.4 .0 -.4 .0 .6 5.3 -5.7 2.7 2.3 3.3 5.9 -5.4 6.4 -3.2 2.5 -.5 -5.6 2.3 2.5 1.8 -1.6 -5.1 -.4 3.3 4.3 4.5 -3.5 .0 1.1 2.5 2005 2006 2007 .3 .0 -.5 .6 .3 .8 -.1 .5 -.3 .1 .9 .7 .4 -.1 .6 .9 .0 .4 .3 .2 -1.6 -.3 1.2 -.2 1.1 -.4 .8 .6 4.6 5.0 .9 2.8 6.5 .8 4.0 4.7 -1.5 3.2 3.9 IP (2002=100) 2005 2006 2007 105.6 109.1 111.7 106.2 109.4 112.6 106.1 110.0 112.2 106.2 110.9 113.0 106.6 110.9 107.3 111.9 107.3 112.3 107.6 112.5 105.8 112.2 107.1 112.0 108.2 111.5 109.1 112.2 106.0 109.5 112.2 106.7 111.2 106.9 112.3 108.1 111.9 106.9 111.1 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2005 2006 2007 132.7 134.6 137.8 132.7 134.8 138.0 132.8 135.1 138.2 132.9 135.4 138.5 133.0 135.7 133.1 136.0 133.2 136.2 133.4 136.5 133.6 136.8 133.8 137.0 134.1 137.3 134.3 137.5 132.7 134.9 138.0 133.0 135.7 133.4 136.5 134.1 137.3 133.3 136.1 Utilization (percent) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 80.0 79.8 79.0 83.2 85.0 80.1 79.0 79.9 83.5 84.5 80.0 78.4 79.9 83.6 84.6 79.7 78.4 80.2 84.0 84.4 79.6 78.4 80.5 83.9 83.7 79.4 78.1 80.8 84.0 83.6 78.7 78.5 81.1 84.1 82.6 78.9 78.3 81.6 84.5 83.3 79.1 78.3 81.6 84.2 82.8 78.6 78.6 82.7 84.6 82.6 78.8 78.8 83.0 84.7 82.7 79.5 79.4 83.3 84.9 83.1 80.0 79.1 79.6 83.4 84.7 79.6 78.3 80.5 84.0 83.9 78.9 78.4 81.4 84.2 82.9 79.0 78.9 83.0 84.7 82.8 79.4 78.7 81.1 84.1 83.6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 82.4 79.7 79.0 81.1 82.6 83.0 79.0 79.4 81.3 82.4 83.2 78.5 79.9 81.1 83.1 82.9 78.6 80.3 81.3 83.3 82.9 79.3 80.4 80.9 83.5 83.0 79.9 80.3 81.0 83.8 82.7 79.8 80.8 81.2 83.7 82.8 79.8 80.3 81.1 83.8 82.8 80.4 80.3 81.4 83.8 82.1 80.1 80.8 81.8 84.2 80.9 79.9 80.9 82.0 84.4 80.2 79.5 80.8 82.3 85.1 82.9 79.1 79.4 81.2 82.7 82.9 79.3 80.3 81.1 83.5 82.7 80.0 80.5 81.2 83.8 81.1 79.9 80.8 82.1 84.6 82.4 79.6 80.3 81.4 83.6 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 85.1 82.3 83.3 84.3 82.1 84.8 83.2 83.8 83.9 82.1 84.6 82.6 84.1 83.3 81.9 84.1 83.0 83.6 83.2 81.8 84.0 83.2 83.6 83.2 82.1 83.9 83.6 83.5 82.3 81.6 83.2 83.0 83.5 81.6 81.8 84.0 83.2 84.0 82.9 81.9 84.0 83.3 84.3 82.3 81.3 83.5 83.0 84.4 82.5 82.0 83.4 83.3 84.7 82.0 82.2 83.3 83.5 84.5 81.9 82.6 84.8 82.7 83.7 83.8 82.0 84.0 83.3 83.6 82.9 81.8 83.7 83.2 83.9 82.3 81.7 83.4 83.3 84.5 82.2 82.3 84.0 83.1 83.9 82.8 81.9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 82.3 79.2 73.8 75.7 77.2 82.3 78.5 73.8 76.0 77.8 82.3 78.0 74.3 75.9 77.3 82.6 77.5 74.5 75.4 77.8 82.5 76.8 74.7 75.4 78.2 82.3 76.2 75.4 75.7 77.7 81.8 75.7 75.1 76.0 78.1 81.3 75.3 75.2 76.0 78.3 81.4 74.8 75.3 76.4 78.2 80.8 74.2 75.1 76.4 78.7 80.5 73.7 75.5 77.1 78.9 79.9 73.6 75.2 77.1 79.4 82.3 78.5 74.0 75.9 77.5 82.5 76.9 74.9 75.5 77.9 81.5 75.3 75.2 76.1 78.2 80.4 73.8 75.3 76.8 79.0 81.7 76.1 74.8 76.1 78.1 2005 2006 2007 79.6 81.1 81.1 80.0 81.1 81.6 79.9 81.4 81.2 79.9 81.9 81.6 80.2 81.7 80.6 82.3 80.5 82.4 80.7 82.4 79.2 82.0 80.0 81.7 80.7 81.3 81.3 81.6 79.8 81.2 81.3 80.2 82.0 80.1 82.3 80.7 81.5 80.2 81.7 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 13 Table 12 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.4 1.1 -.3 -.2 .7 -.3 -.7 1.4 .1 -1.0 .8 -.3 .1 .3 -.1 -.3 .4 .5 .8 .1 .1 .2 .8 -.1 -.8 .2 -.3 .4 .1 .1 -.6 .5 .7 .1 -1.1 .6 .3 .5 .1 1.0 .1 .2 .6 .4 -.3 -.2 .4 1.6 .6 -.2 .7 .5 .6 .3 .2 .4 .9 .6 .4 .2 .3 4.6 6.0 2.4 1.7 1.1 .0 7.0 4.3 -3.2 .3 2.5 7.2 1.4 -2.9 2.5 5.0 11.4 5.0 .6 1.9 2.3 5.7 5.3 .8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.2 -.8 -.5 1.1 .3 1.4 -.7 .8 .1 .1 .4 -.6 .9 -.2 1.3 -.2 .3 .5 .6 .8 .1 .7 .6 -.1 .7 .2 1.1 .3 -.1 .3 -.2 .2 .8 .3 .5 .3 .3 -.4 -.1 .7 .0 1.1 .1 .6 .4 -.8 -.2 .6 .8 1.0 -1.1 -.2 .4 .4 .8 -.7 -.1 -.1 .6 1.2 4.5 -9.0 .7 4.6 5.5 2.6 2.3 8.1 1.6 9.2 .8 7.4 4.2 1.7 6.0 -6.5 1.8 2.8 7.2 10.1 .8 -1.9 3.8 3.7 6.1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .4 -.9 .1 .8 .4 .0 1.5 1.4 .0 .8 .2 -.3 1.1 -.2 -.1 -.2 1.1 -.3 .6 .3 .0 .7 .8 .5 1.0 .4 1.1 .6 -.6 -.3 -.6 .3 .4 -.4 .5 1.2 .6 1.5 2.6 .7 .9 .7 .9 -.3 -.3 -.1 .0 .8 .9 1.6 .1 .9 1.2 .2 .8 .3 .9 .5 .5 .8 6.4 1.1 9.8 6.3 5.4 .4 9.6 6.6 2.8 4.5 3.1 7.6 10.0 4.1 4.1 4.4 6.5 12.1 7.5 9.9 5.5 4.6 8.5 6.9 5.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 .2 -.6 .4 .5 .0 .3 -.6 .1 .0 .7 .7 -.4 .8 .2 -.1 .7 -.3 .1 -.9 .6 .0 -.7 .6 -.1 .6 .2 -.6 1.1 .6 -.7 -.1 -.3 -.4 .1 .8 -.6 -.7 .4 -.2 .6 .5 -.3 .1 .7 -.3 -.4 -.7 -.5 -.1 .7 -.4 -.3 .4 1.0 .0 -.7 .2 -.4 -.1 .6 5.8 -6.6 3.1 1.7 2.9 5.8 -5.7 5.8 -2.3 3.7 -.7 -6.2 3.1 2.2 3.5 -3.2 -5.0 -.8 3.7 3.7 4.8 -4.2 .0 1.1 2.9 2005 2006 2007 .5 .8 -.6 .6 -.2 .0 -.2 .4 .6 .2 1.0 .5 .6 -.2 .4 .9 .1 .4 .4 .4 -.8 .0 1.5 -.8 .9 -.2 .4 1.1 5.1 5.5 .9 3.1 5.5 1.9 4.4 7.5 -1.7 3.9 4.6 IP (2002=100) 2005 2006 2007 106.4 111.5 113.7 107.0 111.2 113.8 106.7 111.7 114.4 106.9 112.8 115.0 107.6 112.6 108.0 113.5 108.1 113.9 108.4 114.3 107.5 114.3 109.2 113.4 110.1 113.2 110.6 114.4 106.7 111.5 114.0 107.5 113.0 108.0 114.2 110.0 113.7 108.0 113.0 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2005 2006 2007 136.0 138.9 142.5 136.2 139.2 142.8 136.3 139.5 143.0 136.5 139.9 143.3 136.6 140.2 136.9 140.5 137.1 140.8 137.3 141.1 137.6 141.3 137.9 141.6 138.2 141.9 138.6 142.2 136.2 139.2 142.8 136.6 140.2 137.4 141.1 138.2 141.9 137.1 140.6 Utilization (percent) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 79.1 78.9 78.9 83.0 85.4 78.6 78.3 79.9 83.0 84.4 79.0 78.0 79.7 83.2 84.2 78.5 78.2 79.9 83.9 84.1 78.4 78.3 80.4 83.7 83.2 78.3 77.9 80.5 83.8 83.2 77.7 78.2 80.9 83.8 82.1 78.0 78.3 81.1 83.9 82.6 77.9 78.4 81.4 84.1 82.2 77.6 78.5 82.5 84.5 81.9 77.9 78.8 82.9 84.7 81.9 78.2 79.3 83.2 84.9 81.8 78.9 78.4 79.5 83.1 84.7 78.4 78.1 80.3 83.8 83.5 77.9 78.3 81.1 83.9 82.3 77.9 78.9 82.9 84.7 81.9 78.3 78.4 80.9 83.9 83.1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 81.5 78.4 78.0 80.3 81.3 82.5 77.7 78.5 80.3 81.2 82.6 77.1 79.0 80.0 82.1 82.2 77.2 79.3 80.3 82.5 82.2 77.7 79.6 80.1 82.7 82.2 78.4 79.7 79.9 82.7 81.9 78.5 80.2 80.1 82.8 81.9 78.6 79.7 79.9 83.1 81.8 79.3 79.5 80.2 83.1 81.0 79.0 79.8 80.8 83.6 79.9 78.7 79.9 80.9 83.9 79.2 78.5 79.6 81.3 84.6 82.2 77.7 78.5 80.2 81.5 82.2 77.8 79.5 80.1 82.6 81.8 78.8 79.8 80.0 83.0 80.0 78.8 79.8 81.0 84.0 81.6 78.3 79.4 80.3 82.8 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 84.6 81.0 82.1 83.6 81.0 84.2 81.8 82.8 83.0 81.2 84.0 81.2 83.3 82.3 80.8 83.5 81.7 82.5 82.2 80.7 83.1 81.8 82.7 82.1 81.1 83.1 82.3 82.7 81.0 80.5 82.2 82.0 82.4 80.2 80.5 82.7 82.1 83.2 81.8 80.7 83.1 82.3 83.3 81.1 80.0 82.6 81.8 83.4 81.4 80.9 82.3 82.2 83.8 81.1 81.1 82.1 82.5 83.6 81.1 81.4 84.3 81.3 82.8 83.0 81.0 83.2 81.9 82.6 81.8 80.7 82.7 82.2 83.0 81.0 80.4 82.3 82.2 83.6 81.2 81.1 83.1 81.9 83.0 81.7 80.8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 81.1 76.9 71.9 73.7 75.3 81.0 76.2 71.9 73.8 75.8 81.2 75.7 72.4 74.1 75.7 81.4 75.3 72.4 73.5 76.2 81.0 74.6 72.8 73.5 76.6 80.8 73.9 73.6 74.0 76.1 80.4 73.5 73.2 74.1 76.7 79.6 72.9 73.5 74.0 77.2 79.7 72.5 73.6 74.6 76.9 79.0 71.9 73.3 74.5 77.4 78.4 71.6 73.6 75.3 77.4 77.6 71.7 73.3 75.2 77.8 81.1 76.3 72.0 73.9 75.6 81.1 74.6 72.9 73.6 76.3 79.9 73.0 73.5 74.2 76.9 78.3 71.7 73.4 75.0 77.6 80.1 73.9 73.0 74.2 76.6 2005 2006 2007 78.2 80.3 79.8 78.6 79.9 79.7 78.3 80.1 80.0 78.4 80.7 80.2 78.7 80.3 78.9 80.8 78.8 80.9 79.0 81.1 78.1 80.9 79.2 80.1 79.7 79.8 79.8 80.5 78.4 80.1 79.8 78.7 80.6 78.6 80.9 79.6 80.1 78.8 80.4 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 14 Table 13 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, High-Technology Industries1 AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Excluding Selected Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.3 .5 -.5 .0 .3 .5 -.8 1.2 .4 -.5 .2 -.7 .2 .2 .3 -.1 .0 .5 .5 -.1 .1 .1 .6 -.2 -.7 .0 -.2 .4 .2 .0 -.5 .3 .5 .1 -1.1 .4 -.2 .6 .5 .9 .5 .2 .2 -.4 -.3 -.4 .4 1.4 .5 -.2 .3 .4 .5 .2 .3 1.1 .8 .4 .4 .7 .9 2.3 4.4 3.0 1.8 1.1 -2.7 6.4 2.7 -2.0 -.2 .5 6.1 1.4 -3.3 2.6 4.0 9.0 2.9 1.0 1.0 .9 4.3 4.4 .6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.7 -.5 -.8 .5 .4 .9 -.8 .7 .3 .0 .4 -.6 .7 -.1 .9 -.2 .2 .6 .3 .3 .1 1.0 .3 -.4 .4 .2 1.0 -.1 .2 .6 -.2 .0 .8 .3 .1 .3 .1 -.6 -.1 .3 .1 .9 .2 .4 .0 -.8 -.2 .6 .7 .6 -1.2 -.2 .3 .3 .4 -.7 -.5 .0 .5 .9 2.2 -8.1 -1.9 3.0 4.2 2.3 2.2 6.1 .4 5.4 1.0 5.4 1.8 1.6 3.3 -6.5 .4 2.9 5.1 5.5 .3 -2.0 1.9 2.5 4.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .2 -1.0 -.1 .2 .2 -.2 1.4 .8 -.1 .2 -.2 -.4 .5 -.1 -.1 -.3 .8 -.4 .2 -.2 .0 .4 .3 .5 .6 .1 .7 .2 -.9 -.5 -.5 -.5 .3 -.8 .3 1.1 .4 1.0 2.0 .4 .1 .4 .7 -.6 -.5 -.5 -.2 .7 .5 1.2 .1 .8 .7 -.3 .3 .2 .5 .2 .0 .6 3.0 -.3 5.0 1.7 .9 -1.4 6.0 2.1 1.0 .3 1.5 2.2 6.0 -.2 1.2 .4 3.4 8.3 2.2 5.5 2.4 1.7 4.2 3.1 1.2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -.3 -.7 .7 .5 .1 .0 -.5 .1 .2 .6 .1 -.4 .8 -.3 -.6 .4 -.1 .4 -.8 .7 .0 -.6 .4 -.1 .6 -.1 -.4 .9 .2 -.8 -.5 -.3 -.3 .3 .7 -.4 -.3 .1 -.1 .2 .4 -.5 .0 .5 -.2 -.6 -.6 -.4 -.1 .7 -.2 -.5 .3 .8 .2 -.5 -.1 -.6 -.1 .6 .7 -6.4 2.9 1.0 1.9 1.7 -4.1 6.1 -4.0 2.6 -2.9 -4.3 1.7 1.7 1.6 -3.0 -5.3 -1.3 2.7 4.0 1.1 -4.1 .1 .2 1.9 2005 2006 2007 .2 -.1 -.5 .5 .2 .8 -.2 .4 -.4 -.1 .7 .6 .3 -.2 .6 .8 -.1 .3 .2 .1 -1.9 -.5 1.0 -.3 1.0 -.5 .8 .6 3.8 4.5 .4 1.5 5.2 -.5 2.9 3.0 -2.7 2.5 2.8 IP (2002=100) 2005 2006 2007 103.9 106.1 107.4 104.4 106.3 108.3 104.2 106.8 107.9 104.2 107.6 108.5 104.4 107.4 105.1 108.3 105.0 108.6 105.2 108.7 103.2 108.2 104.2 107.9 105.3 107.4 106.2 108.0 104.2 106.4 107.9 104.6 107.7 104.4 108.5 105.2 107.8 104.6 107.5 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2005 2006 2007 129.7 130.2 132.0 129.7 130.4 132.1 129.7 130.5 132.3 129.7 130.7 132.4 129.6 130.8 129.7 131.0 129.7 131.2 129.7 131.3 129.8 131.5 129.9 131.6 130.0 131.8 130.1 131.9 129.7 130.4 132.1 129.7 130.8 129.7 131.3 130.0 131.8 129.8 131.1 Utilization (percent) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 79.7 80.2 79.2 83.6 85.4 79.9 79.4 80.1 83.9 84.9 79.9 78.8 80.1 84.0 85.1 79.7 78.8 80.4 84.4 84.9 79.6 78.8 80.8 84.2 84.2 79.5 78.6 81.1 84.3 84.0 78.9 78.8 81.4 84.4 83.0 79.1 78.5 81.8 84.8 83.6 79.4 78.6 81.9 84.4 83.2 79.0 78.8 83.0 84.8 82.9 79.1 79.1 83.3 84.9 83.0 79.8 79.6 83.6 85.2 83.4 79.8 79.5 79.8 83.8 85.1 79.6 78.7 80.8 84.3 84.3 79.1 78.6 81.7 84.5 83.3 79.3 79.2 83.3 85.0 83.1 79.5 79.0 81.4 84.4 84.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 82.7 80.0 79.0 81.2 82.6 83.3 79.3 79.4 81.4 82.5 83.5 78.7 79.9 81.3 83.1 83.2 78.8 80.4 81.4 83.2 83.2 79.5 80.5 81.0 83.5 83.3 80.1 80.3 81.1 83.8 83.0 80.1 80.9 81.3 83.8 83.1 80.0 80.3 81.2 83.9 83.1 80.6 80.4 81.4 83.8 82.4 80.4 80.8 81.9 84.2 81.2 80.1 81.0 82.1 84.4 80.5 79.6 80.9 82.4 85.0 83.2 79.4 79.4 81.3 82.7 83.2 79.5 80.4 81.2 83.5 83.1 80.2 80.5 81.3 83.8 81.4 80.1 80.9 82.1 84.5 82.7 79.8 80.3 81.5 83.6 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 85.0 82.2 83.4 84.3 82.2 84.7 83.2 83.9 84.0 82.1 84.4 82.7 84.1 83.6 81.8 84.0 83.2 83.5 83.6 81.5 83.8 83.4 83.4 83.8 81.8 83.8 83.8 83.3 82.8 81.3 83.2 83.2 83.3 82.0 81.4 83.9 83.4 83.8 83.3 81.5 83.9 83.5 84.1 82.6 81.0 83.3 83.1 84.4 82.8 81.8 83.2 83.6 84.7 82.4 81.9 83.2 83.8 84.5 82.2 82.2 84.7 82.7 83.8 84.0 82.1 83.9 83.4 83.4 83.4 81.6 83.6 83.4 83.7 82.7 81.3 83.2 83.5 84.5 82.5 81.9 83.9 83.3 83.9 83.1 81.7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 81.8 78.8 75.2 76.9 77.7 81.7 78.3 75.2 77.1 78.2 81.6 77.9 75.7 77.0 77.7 81.8 77.8 75.9 76.4 78.2 81.7 77.3 76.2 76.4 78.7 81.5 76.9 76.9 76.6 78.1 81.0 76.6 76.7 76.8 78.6 80.6 76.3 76.7 76.8 78.8 80.8 75.8 76.8 77.2 78.6 80.2 75.3 76.5 77.1 79.2 80.0 74.9 76.8 77.7 79.4 79.5 74.7 76.4 77.7 79.9 81.7 78.4 75.3 77.0 77.9 81.7 77.3 76.4 76.4 78.4 80.8 76.2 76.7 76.9 78.7 79.9 75.0 76.6 77.5 79.5 81.0 76.7 76.3 77.0 78.6 2005 2006 2007 80.1 81.5 81.4 80.5 81.5 81.9 80.4 81.8 81.5 80.3 82.3 82.0 80.6 82.1 81.1 82.7 80.9 82.8 81.1 82.8 79.5 82.3 80.2 82.0 81.0 81.5 81.6 81.9 80.3 81.6 81.6 80.6 82.3 80.5 82.6 80.9 81.8 80.6 82.1 1. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 15 Table 14 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)3 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.5 1.2 -.5 -.2 .8 -.3 -.7 1.4 .2 -1.1 .9 -.3 .1 .2 -.1 -.2 .4 .4 .8 .0 .1 .1 .7 -.2 -.9 .1 -.2 .3 .0 .1 -.4 .2 .6 .0 -1.3 .6 .2 .3 .1 .9 .2 .2 .5 .3 -.3 -.3 .3 1.5 .5 -.3 .6 .4 .5 .3 .1 .4 .8 .5 .4 .1 -.2 4.7 4.7 1.9 2.0 1.7 -.3 5.9 3.5 -3.6 .7 1.2 5.7 .5 -4.0 2.5 4.3 10.4 4.6 -.4 1.4 2.2 4.6 4.4 .4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.3 -.8 -.8 1.1 .1 1.4 -.8 .8 .0 .0 .3 -.8 .9 -.3 1.2 -.3 .4 .4 .5 .6 .1 .6 .5 -.1 .5 .2 1.1 .1 -.2 .2 -.2 .3 .7 .3 .3 .3 .2 -.5 -.2 .5 -.1 1.1 .0 .5 .1 -.8 -.2 .4 .7 .7 -1.2 -.3 .3 .3 .6 -.8 -.3 -.2 .5 .9 3.7 -9.8 -1.2 3.8 3.9 2.0 1.5 6.9 .8 7.1 .3 7.1 2.6 .6 3.9 -7.2 1.0 1.5 5.7 6.7 .0 -2.6 2.6 2.6 4.4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .2 -1.2 -.2 .5 .0 -.3 1.3 1.0 -.1 .5 -.1 -.5 .9 -.3 -.5 -.4 1.0 -.7 .4 -.1 -.2 .4 .5 .4 .8 .2 .8 .4 -1.1 -.7 -.8 -.1 .1 -.9 .0 .9 .4 1.3 2.4 .6 .6 .5 .7 -.7 -.5 -.4 -.4 .6 .7 1.4 -.1 .8 .9 -.1 .4 .1 .7 .2 .2 .4 3.0 -1.7 6.0 3.0 .9 -2.5 6.8 2.6 .0 .2 .3 4.1 6.6 -.6 .4 .8 3.2 8.8 4.0 6.9 2.5 1.5 4.9 3.5 1.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -.3 -.6 .5 .4 -.2 -.1 -.5 .0 -.2 .6 .3 -.4 .8 .2 -.2 .3 -.1 .1 -1.0 .7 -.4 -.6 .6 -.1 .6 .0 -.5 1.0 .5 -.7 -.4 -.1 -.5 .0 .8 -.8 -.7 .3 -.3 .6 .4 -.4 .0 .7 -.4 -.6 -.7 -.6 -.2 .7 -.6 -.3 .3 1.0 .0 -.9 .1 -.6 -.3 .5 .5 -7.5 3.4 .1 1.3 .9 -4.1 5.4 -3.1 3.9 -3.5 -4.7 2.4 1.2 3.3 -5.0 -5.2 -2.0 3.0 3.4 .8 -4.9 .1 .0 2.2 2005 2006 2007 .4 .8 -.7 .5 -.3 .0 -.3 .3 .5 .0 .8 .4 .5 -.4 .3 .8 -.1 .3 .2 .2 -1.1 -.3 1.4 -.9 .8 -.2 .4 1.1 4.1 4.9 .3 1.6 3.8 .4 3.0 5.5 -3.3 3.0 3.2 IP (2002=100) 2005 2006 2007 104.3 107.9 108.5 104.8 107.5 108.6 104.5 107.8 109.1 104.5 108.7 109.5 105.0 108.3 105.3 109.2 105.3 109.5 105.5 109.7 104.3 109.4 105.8 108.4 106.6 108.2 107.0 109.3 104.5 107.7 108.7 104.9 108.7 105.0 109.5 106.5 108.6 105.2 108.6 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2005 2006 2007 132.6 133.7 135.5 132.6 133.9 135.6 132.7 134.0 135.8 132.7 134.2 135.9 132.8 134.3 132.8 134.5 132.9 134.7 133.0 134.8 133.1 135.0 133.3 135.1 133.4 135.2 133.6 135.4 132.6 133.9 135.6 132.8 134.3 133.0 134.8 133.4 135.2 133.0 134.6 Utilization (percent) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 78.6 79.4 79.1 83.4 85.9 78.3 78.8 80.1 83.5 84.9 78.8 78.4 80.0 83.7 84.7 78.5 78.7 80.2 84.3 84.6 78.4 78.7 80.7 84.1 83.7 78.3 78.4 80.8 84.2 83.7 77.9 78.5 81.2 84.1 82.4 78.2 78.6 81.4 84.2 83.0 78.2 78.7 81.7 84.4 82.7 77.9 78.8 82.9 84.8 82.2 78.3 79.0 83.3 85.0 82.2 78.5 79.6 83.6 85.3 82.2 78.6 78.9 79.7 83.5 85.2 78.4 78.6 80.6 84.2 84.0 78.1 78.6 81.4 84.2 82.7 78.2 79.1 83.2 85.0 82.2 78.3 78.8 81.2 84.3 83.5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 81.8 78.7 77.9 80.4 81.2 82.8 77.9 78.4 80.4 81.2 82.9 77.2 79.0 80.1 82.0 82.6 77.4 79.3 80.4 82.4 82.5 77.8 79.6 80.2 82.7 82.5 78.6 79.7 80.0 82.7 82.2 78.7 80.2 80.1 82.8 82.3 78.7 79.7 79.9 83.1 82.1 79.5 79.6 80.2 83.1 81.3 79.3 79.8 80.7 83.5 80.2 78.9 80.0 80.9 83.8 79.5 78.6 79.7 81.2 84.5 82.5 78.0 78.4 80.3 81.5 82.5 77.9 79.5 80.2 82.6 82.2 79.0 79.8 80.1 83.0 80.3 78.9 79.8 81.0 83.9 81.9 78.4 79.4 80.4 82.8 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 84.4 80.8 82.2 83.5 81.0 84.0 81.7 82.8 83.1 81.2 83.7 81.1 83.2 82.5 80.6 83.2 81.7 82.3 82.6 80.3 82.9 81.9 82.4 82.6 80.7 82.9 82.4 82.4 81.4 80.0 82.0 82.2 82.1 80.5 79.8 82.6 82.3 82.9 82.1 80.2 82.9 82.4 83.1 81.3 79.5 82.3 81.9 83.2 81.6 80.5 82.0 82.3 83.6 81.3 80.7 81.9 82.6 83.5 81.2 80.8 84.0 81.2 82.7 83.1 80.9 83.0 82.0 82.4 82.2 80.3 82.5 82.3 82.7 81.3 79.8 82.1 82.3 83.4 81.4 80.7 82.9 81.9 82.8 82.0 80.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 80.4 76.3 73.3 75.0 75.7 80.2 75.8 73.3 74.9 76.2 80.3 75.5 73.9 75.1 76.0 80.4 75.4 73.9 74.5 76.6 79.9 74.9 74.4 74.4 77.1 79.8 74.5 75.2 74.9 76.5 79.3 74.4 74.8 74.9 77.2 78.6 73.8 75.1 74.7 77.6 78.8 73.5 75.2 75.3 77.3 78.2 73.0 74.8 75.2 77.9 77.7 72.8 75.0 76.0 77.9 76.9 72.9 74.6 75.8 78.3 80.3 75.9 73.5 75.0 76.0 80.0 74.9 74.5 74.6 76.7 78.9 73.9 75.0 75.0 77.4 77.6 72.9 74.8 75.7 78.1 79.2 74.4 74.5 75.1 77.0 2005 2006 2007 78.7 80.7 80.1 79.0 80.3 80.0 78.8 80.5 80.3 78.7 81.0 80.6 79.1 80.6 79.3 81.2 79.2 81.3 79.3 81.4 78.4 81.1 79.4 80.3 79.9 80.0 80.1 80.7 78.8 80.5 80.2 79.0 80.9 79.0 81.3 79.8 80.3 79.2 80.8 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 16 Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: E XPLANATORY N OTE The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. A Im A Im−1 = Im pm−1 × Im−1 pm−1 Im pm Im−1 pm The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 8 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 8/10 percentage point (0.08 x 10% = 0.8%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2002. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries-logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing-that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 300 individual series based on the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html). Changes in output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of the statistical tables, see below. Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 70 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about 84 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 96 percent in the third month, and 97 percent in the fourth month. Data availability by data type is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2005) Month of estimate Type of data 2nd 3rd 4th 27 42 54 54 Production-worker hours 43 43 43 43 IP data received 70 84 96 97 IP data estimated Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. 1st Physical product 30 16 4 3 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (25 percent out of total of 52 percent). Of the 25 percent, about two-thirds (17 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of the first month of a quarter. About 3 percent of the source data for monthly IP—all physical product measures—are available too late for direct inclusion in the current index and are incorporated at the time of an annual historical revision. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through 17 September 2006; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 2006. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. related capacity index. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC (currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the SPC. Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent during the 1987–2005 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–2005 period. In most cases (about 86 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. C APACITY U TILIZATION Perspective. Over the 1972–2005 period, the average total industry utilization rate is 81.0 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate has been 79.8 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES References. The annual revision published in November 2005 is described in an article published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 92, pp. A39–A58. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital stock doc-latest.pdf. Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 87 detailed industries (69 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005). Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 24 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries account for a bit less than 72 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap notes.html). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2006: January 17, February 15, March 17, April 14, May 16, June 15, July 17, August 16, September 15, October 17, November 16, and December 15. 2007: January 17, February 15, March 16, April 17, May 16, June 15, July 17, August 15, September 14, October 16, November 16, and December 14. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the 18
