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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release
G.17 (419)

For release at 9:15 a.m. (EDT)
May 15, 2003

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in both April and March. At 109.7 percent of its 1997 average, output
in April was 0.4 percent lower than its level in April 2002. Manufacturing output decreased 0.6 percent in April and was
1.9 percent below the recent high recorded in August 2002. Output at utilities ticked up 0.1 percent, and production in
mining climbed 0.4 percent. Capacity utilization for total industry dropped to 74.4 percent, a rate nearly 0.5 percentage
point below that of March and almost 7 percentage points below its 1972–2002 average.

(over)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY
Seasonally adjusted
1997=100

Percent change

Industrial production

2003
Jan.r

Feb.r

Mar.r

Apr.p

Total index
Previous estimates

110.7
110.8

110.7
110.7

110.2
110.1

109.7

Major market groups
Final Products
Consumer goods
Business equipment
Nonindustrial supplies
Construction
Materials

107.1
107.7
105.6
114.4
102.3
113.0

106.9
107.5
105.5
114.5
101.8
113.2

106.5
107.0
105.5
113.9
101.5
112.5

Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below)
Previous estimates
Mining
Utilities

111.1
111.3
93.6
115.0

111.0
111.0
93.5
116.3

110.9
110.8
93.9
111.7

Capacity utilization

Average
1972–2002

1982
low

1988–89
high

2003
Jan.r

Apr. ’02 to
Apr. ’03

Feb.r

Mar.r

Apr.p

.7
.8

.0
-.1

-.5
-.5

-.5

-.4

106.1
106.5
105.0
113.3
100.7
111.9

1.0
1.0
.9
.4
-.1
.5

-.2
-.2
-.2
.1
-.5
.2

-.3
-.5
.0
-.5
-.2
-.6

-.4
-.4
-.5
-.6
-.8
-.5

-1.0
-.9
-2.5
-.5
-3.1
.3

110.2

.5
.6
-1.7
4.0

-.1
-.3
-.1
1.1

-.1
-.2
.4
-4.0

-.6

-.7

.4
.1

.9
1.1

94.2
111.8

Percent of capacity
2002
2003
Apr.
Jan.r

Feb.r

Mar.r

Apr.p

Capacity
growth
Apr. ’02 to
Apr. ’03

Total industry
Previous estimates

81.3

70.8

85.1

75.6

75.3
75.4

75.3
75.3

74.8
74.8

74.4

1.2

Manufacturing (see note below)
Previous estimates
Mining
Utilities

80.2

68.6

85.6

73.6

85.6
92.6

84.7
88.6

73.0
72.9
85.1
84.5

.9

78.6
77.2

73.2
73.1
84.8
88.4

72.5

86.9
86.7

73.3
73.4
84.9
87.8

85.4
84.3

.1
6.3

86.4
82.2
78.5

77.2
67.9
71.3

88.6
86.2
83.1

82.7
77.5
71.7

82.6
77.8
70.8

83.0
77.9
70.4

83.4
77.1
70.3

83.2
76.5
70.0

-.3
1.6
.9

Stage-of-process groups
Crude
Primary and semifinished
Finished

r Revised. p Preliminary.
NOTE– The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the industrial sector, which the Federal Reserve defines as manufacturing,
mining, and electric and gas utilities. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS,
definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have traditionally been considered to be
manufacturing and included in the industrial sector.

Market Groups
The output of consumer goods moved down 0.4 percent in April, with declines in both nondurable and
durable goods. The production of automotive products fell 0.8 percent, its third consecutive monthly decline. Among
other consumer durables, overall output fell, as declines in the production of miscellaneous goods outweighed gains in
the output of home electronics. The production of nondurable consumer goods edged down 0.3 percent, as both energy
and non-energy goods posted declines. Within non-energy nondurables, foods and tobacco were little changed again,
while the output of paper products fell 1.2 percent after having increased in February and March, and clothing production
posted another sizable decline.
The index for business equipment moved down 0.5 percent in April and stood 2.5 percent below its level in
April 2002. Declines were widespread across categories, with the output of transit equipment, particularly motor
vehicles, recording the sharpest decrease. Information processing equipment ticked down after having posted a sizable
gain in the previous month, and industrial and other equipment edged down for a second month. A 0.4 percent drop in
the production of defense and space equipment mainly reflected a strike at a major military aircraft producer.
The output of construction supplies declined 0.8 percent in April, its eighth consecutive monthly decline.
The index for this category was at its lowest level since September 1997. The output of business supplies dropped
0.4 percent but was 1.2 percent above its level a year ago.
The production of materials fell 0.5 percent in April. The output of durable materials was held down by
decreases in the production of consumer parts—mainly those related to motor vehicles—and other durable materials,
while the production of equipment parts moved up 0.6 percent. The production of energy materials was little changed.
The output of nondurable materials fell 0.7 percent, with declines recorded in textiles, paper, and chemicals.
Industry Groups
Manufacturing output declined 0.6 percent in April after having edged down 0.1 percent in both March and
February. Losses in April were widespread. The overall factory operating rate moved down 0.5 percentage point, to
72.5 percent, and was the lowest rate since May 1983. A 0.6 percent drop in the production of durable goods was led by
another pullback in motor vehicles assemblies. Other industries that contributed to the decline included primary and
fabricated metals, nonmetallic mineral products, furniture and related products, and miscellaneous durable goods.
Among high-technology industries, both computers and semiconductors had noticeable gains in output, while the
production of communications equipment declined sharply and reversed about half of the previous month’s gain. The
output of nondurable goods registered a moderate decrease, with declines in paper, chemicals, and petroleum and coal
products accounting for most of the overall loss. Production in other (non-NAICS) manufacturing industries (publishing
and logging), which rose sharply in March, fell by a similar amount in April.
Output at mines increased again in April, and the utilization rate rose to 85.4 percent, 0.5 percentage point
above the average rate in the first quarter. Output at utilities ticked up after having dropped sharply in March; the index
for this category was up 1.1 percent from its year-ago level.
By stage of processing, capacity utilization for industries in the crude stage fell 0.2 percentage point, to
83.2 percent; for industries in the primary and semifinished stages, the operating rate fell 0.6 percentage point, to
76.5 percent. For industries in the finished stage, capacity utilization declined 0.3 percentage point, to 70.0 percent.

2

Tables
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change
Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change
Motor Vehicle Assemblies
Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes
Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes
Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production
Capacity Utilization
Industrial Capacity
Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies
Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups
Electric Power Use
Historical Statistics: Total Industry
Historical Statistics: Manufacturing
Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries

Further detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/).

3

1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization
200
185

Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100
Total
Manufacturing

200
185

160

160

135

135

Capacity
110

110

85

85
Production

Detail: 2000 to present

122

60

118

60

Production
114

110

2000

35

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

2001

1995

2002

2003

106

2000

Percent of capacity

100
95

35

100
95

Utilization
85

85

75

75

65

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

65

Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The line plotted
at March 2001 is the most recent business cycle peak.
See note on cover page.

4

2. Industrial production and capacity utilization
Consumer goods

Equipment

Ratio scale, 1997=100

Ratio scale, 1997=100

130

130

130

130

125

125

125

125

120

120

115

115

115

110

110

110

110

105

105

105

100

100

100

95

95

95

90

90

130

130

130

130

125

125

125

125

120

120

120

115

115

110

110

105

105

100

100

100

100

95

95

95

95

90

90

120
115

Durable

Nondurable

100
95
90

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Nonindustrial supplies

Ratio scale, 1997=100

120
Other business

115
110
105

90

Construction

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Capacity utilization

85
80

Primary and
semifinished
processing

75

Defense and Space

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Industrial materials

Percent of capacity

90

Business

90

85

85

105

90

Ratio scale, 1997=100

Non-energy

115
110
105

Energy

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Capacity utilization
90

120

90

Percent of capacity
90
85

Finished processing
80

80

80

75

75

75

70

70

70

65

65

Excluding utilities
70

65

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

5

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

65

3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries
Industrial production

Ratio scale, 1997 = 100

125
115

125
115

Excluding
high-technology
industries

95

95

75

75
Total IP

55

35

55

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

Industrial production

1995

2000

35

Percent change from year earlier
15

15
Total IP

10

10

5

5

0

0
Excluding the
contribution
of high-technology
industries

-5
-10
-15

1970

1975

Industrial production

1980

1990

600
525
450
Semiconductors

300

2000

95

-10
-15

Percent of capacity

100

375

300

1995

Capacity utilization

Ratio scale, 1997 = 100

600
525
450
375

1985

-5

100
95

Excluding
high-technology
industries

85

85

75

75

Computers
225

225

150

150
Communications eq.

65

65
High-technology industries

75

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

75

55

1990

1995

2000

Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9),
computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342).
The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The line plotted at March 2001 is the most
recent business cycle peak.

6

55

Table 1

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
Fourth quarter to
fourth quarter

It
Item

2002
proportion1

2002

100.00

2.7

-5.7

1.4

4.4

3.4

-3.4

.4

.7

.0

-.5

-.5

-.4

59.81
30.46
7.52
4.29
.34
1.29
1.60
22.93
18.96
10.27
1.04
4.79
2.29
3.98

3.2
1.1
-2.0
-4.8
9.2
-1.0
.6
2.2
1.1
-.4
-6.2
6.5
1.0
7.6

-5.4
-2.1
-3.0
1.7
-13.5
-4.6
-9.5
-1.8
-1.0
-2.2
-12.6
4.8
-.3
-5.2

.5
1.4
6.0
9.6
-1.8
1.7
2.2
.0
-1.6
-.9
-4.6
-3.1
-.4
8.1

2.8
2.9
8.4
14.3
-29.7
4.0
8.0
1.2
-2.2
-.1
-2.7
-7.6
-2.6
19.7

2.1
2.0
6.7
16.9
-3.7
-10.4
-2.5
.5
.1
-3.3
-3.7
5.0
7.5
2.5

-3.6
-3.4
-2.4
-6.2
12.6
4.6
-.1
-3.7
-4.6
-5.4
-10.5
-5.2
3.2
.8

.2
.9
1.0
2.4
29.2
-4.0
-4.0
.9
-.8
-3.9
-5.0
5.2
1.2
9.2

.8
1.0
2.3
4.3
5.0
-2.2
.0
.6
.3
.3
-.2
.8
-.6
2.1

-.1
-.2
-1.8
-2.2
-.9
.0
-2.1
.3
.1
-.9
.0
1.5
1.0
1.3

-.4
-.5
-.6
-1.2
.5
.2
.3
-.4
.1
-.1
-1.9
.4
1.4
-2.9

-.5
-.4
-.7
-.8
1.6
.0
-1.5
-.3
-.3
.0
-1.7
-.3
-1.2
-.4

-.9
-.9
.3
1.5
10.3
-2.4
-2.7
-1.3
-1.7
-3.7
-7.5
1.1
3.5
.5

9.65
1.74
3.05
4.86
2.20

7.9
-8.6
20.0
6.3
-.4

-14.3
-12.1
-13.4
-15.7
.0

-3.9
-15.6
-1.6
-.7
2.3

-1.4
-18.6
-.5
5.1
3.7

-1.8
-8.2
-4.4
2.3
4.5

-6.6
-16.3
-.6
-6.7
1.9

-.2
-11.6
7.4
-.8
8.1

.9
.5
1.6
.7
1.7

-.2
-2.0
-.1
.5
.1

.0
-.8
1.2
-.5
.1

-.5
-1.9
-.1
-.2
-.4

-2.5
-13.2
1.2
-1.0
4.0

6.84
10.30

.7
6.3

-6.0
-5.1

.6
2.2

4.4
6.6

1.0
6.1

-4.3
-2.0

-6.0
1.6

-.1
.8

-.5
.6

-.2
-.7

-.8
-.4

-3.1
1.2

40.19
30.49
18.56
4.21
5.94
8.41
11.93
.80
3.00
4.18
9.71

2.0
2.3
5.6
-6.3
23.4
-3.5
-3.5
-9.6
-3.8
-4.1
1.0

-6.0
-6.9
-7.7
-3.7
-10.2
-7.2
-5.4
-12.6
-5.6
-5.4
-3.4

2.8
2.9
3.8
7.9
3.6
1.9
1.3
.1
3.0
1.2
2.6

6.9
7.5
8.0
6.7
9.7
7.1
6.7
7.9
5.7
10.6
4.9

5.3
5.4
5.7
8.5
8.0
2.6
4.8
2.2
10.1
2.3
5.0

-3.0
-3.2
-1.6
-.9
-.5
-2.9
-5.6
-10.2
1.3
-11.2
-2.4

.6
-1.1
-.5
-.4
2.2
-2.5
-1.8
-13.3
-9.0
4.2
5.9

.5
.3
.8
2.5
.8
-.1
-.4
-1.6
-1.5
1.0
1.1

.2
.1
.1
-1.4
.1
.9
.2
-.1
-.7
.8
.4

-.6
-.3
-.6
-1.2
.2
-.9
.3
-.8
1.2
.1
-1.5

-.5
-.7
-.7
-2.4
.6
-.9
-.7
-1.5
-.7
-.7
.0

.3
.0
.3
-2.2
4.3
-1.3
-.4
-6.9
.8
-1.2
1.2

321
327
331
332
333
334

84.62
79.31
43.41
1.43
2.50
2.45
6.07
5.28
8.09

2.5
2.6
5.4
-6.7
-.2
-9.6
.5
4.8
30.7

-6.1
-6.2
-8.2
-3.1
.1
-11.6
-7.8
-17.8
-9.6

1.0
1.2
1.9
-1.1
2.6
3.6
1.1
-.8
4.0

3.5
3.9
4.9
2.4
3.4
3.2
4.6
5.0
6.4

3.0
2.9
3.8
1.6
5.5
1.5
1.4
.3
5.5

-3.7
-3.9
-2.8
-13.4
1.8
.4
-2.2
-8.7
3.4

-.6
-.9
-.1
-9.3
-.5
-.1
-5.6
2.8
4.9

.5
.6
1.1
.5
1.6
1.1
-.4
1.1
1.0

-.1
-.2
-.4
-1.8
-.6
3.2
-.6
.7
-.1

-.1
-.2
-.4
-1.4
-.6
-3.2
-.2
.6
.7

-.6
-.6
-.6
.7
-.7
-1.9
-.9
.1
.5

-.7
-.9
-.3
-5.8
.2
-1.5
-2.1
-.4
5.2

335
3361–3

2.39
7.12

2.7
-8.4

-10.9
-1.2

-1.9
10.9

2.7
14.7

-2.5
18.1

-3.4
-5.6

-5.1
.6

-1.2
4.4

.5
-2.7

-1.4
-1.5

-.4
-2.0

-2.8
-.3

3364–9
337
339

3.29
1.69
3.10

-4.9
.7
3.8

-5.0
-8.9
-5.7

-10.7
-1.9
1.8

-13.5
-1.7
9.1

-7.5
-2.1
-.8

-3.5
-4.0
-2.6

3.1
-6.5
1.1

1.0
-.1
-.4

-.3
.2
-.3

-.1
-1.5
.7

-.1
-1.4
-.4

-3.2
-5.7
-.1

311,2
313,4
315,6
322
323
324
325
326

35.90
11.65
1.29
1.12
3.14
2.67
1.92
10.24
3.87

-1.2
-.4
-6.3
-5.9
-4.0
-.8
-.5
.4
-1.9

-3.4
-1.8
-12.4
-12.9
-5.7
-5.6
-.3
-1.1
-5.7

.2
-.8
-.3
-4.5
2.9
3.0
1.3
-1.0
2.7

2.5
.1
5.8
-2.8
11.2
-3.7
.2
1.5
11.9

1.8
-2.8
-2.0
-3.4
6.4
14.3
-4.1
4.3
2.8

-5.3
-5.2
-7.7
-10.0
.6
-.2
2.0
-8.4
-6.4

-2.0
-3.4
-11.4
-5.1
-9.3
-4.0
-2.5
4.2
-1.6

-.1
.2
-3.0
-.1
-2.0
.2
-2.9
.9
.3

.0
-.8
.8
-.1
.0
-1.2
-.1
1.1
.4

.0
-.2
.2
-1.8
1.6
-1.1
.7
.0
.0

-.5
.1
-1.5
-1.7
-1.0
-.2
-1.9
-.6
-.4

-1.7
-3.3
-6.0
-7.3
.6
1.2
-3.5
-.2
-.8

1133,5111

5.32

.4

-3.9

-1.8

-2.2

5.3

.1

3.7

-.5

1.6

1.4

-1.4

2.8

21
2211,2
2211
2212

6.03
9.34
8.06
1.28

.8
6.0
4.8
12.8

-.6
-5.4
-4.0
-12.5

-1.9
7.7
7.1
12.0

-2.5
18.6
15.5
40.4

.2
8.4
10.7
-5.6

1.0
-3.3
-5.2
10.4

-.2
10.3
11.4
3.8

-1.7
4.0
4.1
3.7

-.1
1.1
1.0
1.9

.4
-4.0
-3.7
-5.9

.4
.1
.0
.9

.9
1.1
1.0
1.8

MARKET GROUPS

Business equipment
Transit
Information processing
Industrial and other
Defense and space equipment
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials
Non-energy
Durable
Consumer parts
Equipment parts
Other
Nondurable
Textile
Paper
Chemical
Energy

INDUSTRY GROUPS

Other manufacturing (non-NAICS)
Mining
Utilities
Electric
Natural gas

Q3

Q4

2003
Q1r

2003
Jan.r

Feb.r

Mar.r

Apr.p

Apr. ’02
to
Apr. ’03

2001

Final products and nonindustrial supplies
Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Home electronics
Appliances, furniture, carpeting
Miscellaneous goods
Nondurable
Non-energy
Foods and tobacco
Clothing
Chemical products
Paper products
Energy

Nondurable manufacturing
Food, beverage, and tobacco products
Textile and product mills
Apparel and leather
Paper
Printing and support
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical
Plastics and rubber products

Monthly rate

2000

Total IP

Manufacturing
Manufacturing (NAICS)
Durable manufacturing
Wood products
Nonmetallic mineral products
Primary metal
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Computer and electronic products
Electrical equip., appliances,
and components
Motor vehicles and parts
Aerospace and other miscellaneous
transportation equipment
Furniture and related products
Miscellaneous

Annual rate
2002
Q2

r Revised. p Preliminary.
NOTE. Under industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation
pt denotes part of an NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the
products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category,
containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately.
1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year.

7

Table 2

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: SPECIAL AGGREGATES AND SELECTED DETAIL
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
Fourth quarter to
fourth quarter

It
Item

2002
proportion

Annual rate

Monthly rate

2000

2001

2002

100.00

2.7

-5.7

1.4

4.4

3.4

-3.4

.4

.7

.0

-.5

-.5

-.4

Energy
Consumer products
Commercial products
Oil and gas well drilling
Converted fuel
Primary materials

16.15
3.98
2.22
.25
3.41
6.30

3.7
7.6
7.0
29.4
5.3
-1.3

-3.5
-5.2
.3
-10.9
-7.7
-1.0

3.8
8.1
4.5
-14.8
2.9
2.4

9.2
19.7
15.6
-26.5
4.5
5.2

4.8
2.5
6.9
13.7
11.0
1.7

-1.8
.8
-4.1
4.4
-7.1
.3

6.9
9.2
8.3
-3.6
13.1
2.1

1.6
2.1
3.8
-5.5
3.6
-.2

.8
1.3
1.3
4.6
1.4
-.2

-2.2
-2.9
-4.3
-2.2
-2.0
-1.2

.0
-.4
.3
3.1
-.1
.1

1.0
.5
.3
7.3
2.7
.4

Non-energy

83.85

2.5

-6.1

1.0

3.6

3.1

-3.7

-.8

.5

-.1

-.1

-.6

-.7

3341
3342

5.30
1.20
1.68

40.0
17.7
30.3

-9.6
-5.9
-20.2

7.1
19.9
-16.6

11.9
4.2
-5.7

7.5
9.4
-21.3

6.7
25.5
-16.1

7.8
24.4
.8

.9
1.6
1.6

.8
2.2
-.1

1.7
2.3
2.6

1.0
2.0
-1.4

9.3
18.7
-9.3

334412–9

2.42

55.8

-3.4

19.8

30.2

30.7

14.5

4.4

.2

.8

.9

2.1

18.1

78.55

-1.2

-5.6

.4

2.8

2.7

-4.4

-1.4

.5

-.2

-.2

-.7

-1.4

7.12
3.02
3.70

-8.4
-12.0
-4.3

-1.2
2.0
-2.1

10.9
12.1
8.7

14.7
18.1
10.3

18.1
26.7
10.1

-5.6
-13.9
.2

.6
.3
2.8

4.4
6.4
3.3

-2.7
-3.9
-1.7

-1.5
-1.9
-1.2

-2.0
-1.9
-2.0

-.3
-1.4
-.1

Excluding motor vehicles and parts
Consumer goods
Business equipment
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials

71.43
22.46
7.16
6.73
9.71
25.53

-.5
.8
5.4
.3
1.2
-2.8

-6.0
-2.2
-13.7
-5.9
-4.9
-7.3

-.5
-1.3
-6.0
.8
1.3
.9

1.7
-1.5
-3.9
4.4
5.1
5.3

1.3
-.9
-2.8
1.2
5.0
3.0

-4.3
-3.9
-7.7
-4.2
-2.8
-4.7

-1.6
-.9
-2.3
-6.0
1.3
-1.8

.1
.2
.6
-.1
.8
-.1

.1
-.1
-.1
-.5
.5
.4

-.1
.1
-.6
-.2
-.9
-.2

-.6
-.4
-.4
-.8
-.5
-.7

-1.5
-1.8
-4.0
-3.1
.3
-1.0

Measures excluding selected high-technology
industries
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

94.70
79.32
38.31

-.4
-1.1
-1.3

-5.2
-5.6
-7.8

1.0
.5
1.0

3.9
2.8
3.6

3.0
2.6
3.0

-3.9
-4.4
-4.2

.0
-1.2
-1.1

.7
.5
1.1

.0
-.1
-.5

-.6
-.2
-.7

-.6
-.7
-.8

-1.0
-1.4
-1.6

Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

92.88
77.51
36.49

3.5
3.5
7.9

-6.0
-6.5
-9.3

.7
.1
.3

3.7
2.5
3.0

2.3
1.7
1.0

-3.2
-3.5
-2.3

.3
-.8
-.2

.4
.2
.4

.3
.2
.1

-.4
.0
-.2

-.4
-.5
-.3

-.4
-.7
-.3

Stage-of-process components of non–energy
materials, measures of the input to
Finished processors
Semifinished and primary processors

13.94
16.55

8.0
-3.1

-7.9
-5.9

4.6
1.3

8.0
7.0

8.3
2.9

-.8
-5.2

-2.0
-.2

.7
.1

-.6
.7

-.1
-.4

-.7
-.7

.9
-.8

Total industry

Selected high-technology industries
Computers and office equipment
Communications equipment
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
Excluding selected high-technology
industries
Motor vehicles and parts
Motor vehicles
Motor vehicle parts

3361–3
3361
3363

Q3

Q4

2003
Q1r

2003
Jan.r

Feb.r

Mar.r

Apr.p

Apr. ’02
to
Apr. ’03

2002
Q2

r Revised. p Preliminary.
1. See note on cover page.

Table 3

MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLIES
Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
2002
average

2002
Q2

Q3

Q4

2003
Q1

2003
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

Total
Autos
Trucks
Light
Medium and heavy

12.28
5.02
7.26
7.00
.26

12.40
5.15
7.25
6.98
.27

12.97
5.16
7.81
7.52
.29

12.37
4.86
7.51
7.26
.25

12.35
4.67
7.68
7.45
.23

12.90
5.16
7.74
7.51
.22

12.26
4.49
7.77
7.54
.23

11.90
4.36
7.54
7.30
.23

11.55
4.30
7.25
7.04
.21

MEMO
Autos and light trucks

12.02

12.13

12.68

12.12

12.12

12.67

12.03

11.67

11.34

It
Item

NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site,
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm

8

Table 4

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY
1997 = 100, seasonally adjusted
2002
proportion

It
Item

2002
Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

2003
Jan.r

Feb.r

Mar.r

Apr.p

100.00

111.3

111.2

110.6

110.8

109.9

110.7

110.7

110.2

109.7

59.81
30.46
7.52
4.29
.34
1.29
1.60
22.93
18.96
10.27
1.04
4.79
2.29
3.98

109.8
107.8
119.3
130.6
135.4
104.5
98.3
103.8
102.4
99.2
71.3
119.0
108.4
111.6

109.8
107.9
118.7
129.3
142.6
104.6
97.8
104.2
102.6
99.1
72.1
119.5
109.8
112.8

109.1
107.0
117.0
125.9
140.1
104.9
98.2
103.6
102.0
98.7
70.2
118.3
110.0
111.8

109.3
107.8
121.0
132.4
142.1
107.1
98.3
103.3
101.3
97.9
70.6
118.0
108.8
114.0

108.2
106.6
117.8
125.9
145.3
107.7
98.7
102.8
100.8
97.4
69.9
116.9
109.0
113.3

109.1
107.7
120.5
131.3
152.7
105.4
98.7
103.4
101.1
97.6
69.7
117.9
108.3
115.7

109.1
107.5
118.4
128.4
151.2
105.4
96.7
103.7
101.2
96.8
69.8
119.7
109.5
117.2

108.6
107.0
117.7
126.8
151.9
105.6
96.9
103.3
101.3
96.6
68.4
120.2
111.0
113.8

108.1
106.5
116.9
125.7
154.4
105.6
95.5
103.0
101.0
96.7
67.3
119.8
109.7
113.4

9.65
1.74
3.05
4.86
2.20

108.1
81.1
153.7
92.9
101.9

106.9
79.7
152.1
92.0
102.0

106.0
77.3
153.1
91.2
102.5

106.1
77.9
152.8
91.1
101.7

104.6
75.4
152.7
89.7
102.3

105.6
75.7
155.1
90.4
104.1

105.5
74.2
154.9
90.8
104.2

105.5
73.6
156.8
90.4
104.3

105.0
72.2
156.6
90.2
103.9

6.84
10.30

104.8
122.6

104.5
123.6

104.2
123.1

103.8
122.5

102.4
121.9

102.3
122.8

101.8
123.5

101.5
122.6

100.7
122.1

40.19
30.49
18.56
4.21
5.94
8.41
11.93
.80
3.00
4.18
9.71

113.6
117.4
130.0
112.3
186.3
98.3
98.2
77.8
96.1
100.7
99.3

113.4
117.2
129.5
112.4
185.7
97.7
98.3
78.4
96.7
100.2
99.1

112.8
116.7
129.5
111.7
185.7
98.0
97.1
77.2
96.8
98.2
98.4

113.1
116.7
129.7
114.6
185.3
97.2
97.0
77.0
96.9
97.9
99.4

112.4
115.6
128.1
111.1
184.4
96.4
96.5
75.3
95.8
97.3
99.7

113.0
116.0
129.1
113.8
186.0
96.3
96.2
74.1
94.4
98.3
100.9

113.2
116.2
129.3
112.2
186.1
97.2
96.4
74.0
93.7
99.0
101.2

112.5
115.9
128.4
110.9
186.4
96.3
96.7
73.4
94.8
99.1
99.7

111.9
115.0
127.5
108.3
187.5
95.4
96.0
72.4
94.1
98.4
99.8

321
327
331
332
333
334

84.62
79.31
43.41
1.43
2.50
2.45
6.07
5.28
8.09

112.4
112.8
122.7
102.5
108.5
87.6
99.3
89.4
223.0

112.1
112.4
122.0
100.7
109.8
85.0
99.4
88.2
223.2

111.4
111.7
121.5
99.2
109.3
87.6
99.8
86.8
224.2

111.6
112.0
122.2
98.3
110.2
86.2
98.7
87.4
224.5

110.6
110.8
120.5
96.9
108.0
84.1
98.3
85.8
224.5

111.1
111.5
121.9
97.4
109.7
85.0
97.9
86.7
226.6

111.0
111.3
121.4
95.6
109.0
87.8
97.4
87.3
226.5

110.9
111.0
120.9
94.3
108.4
85.0
97.2
87.8
228.2

110.2
110.4
120.2
95.0
107.6
83.4
96.4
87.9
229.3

335
3361–3

2.39
7.12

98.0
122.0

96.5
121.1

96.6
118.3

97.0
123.9

96.9
117.8

95.7
122.9

96.2
119.7

94.8
117.9

94.5
115.5

3364–9
337
339

3.29
1.69
3.10

86.3
100.5
110.2

85.7
101.4
109.1

85.5
100.7
109.3

84.8
100.6
108.6

85.2
98.9
110.0

86.0
98.8
109.5

85.7
99.0
109.2

85.6
97.5
110.0

85.5
96.1
109.6

311,2
313,4
315,6
322
323
324
325
326

35.90
11.65
1.29
1.12
3.14
2.67
1.92
10.24
3.87

100.0
100.0
82.5
71.2
95.8
98.6
102.7
106.2
107.3

100.0
99.9
82.3
71.8
96.1
99.9
101.0
106.1
107.2

99.1
99.5
81.3
70.2
95.7
99.5
99.4
104.6
106.4

98.9
98.6
81.7
70.5
96.8
98.4
103.9
104.2
105.8

98.3
98.3
80.8
69.7
95.0
98.9
105.0
103.4
104.6

98.2
98.5
78.4
69.7
93.0
99.1
102.0
104.4
104.9

98.3
97.8
79.0
69.6
93.0
97.9
101.8
105.5
105.3

98.3
97.6
79.1
68.4
94.5
96.8
102.5
105.6
105.2

97.8
97.6
78.0
67.2
93.6
96.7
100.6
104.9
104.8

1133,5111

5.32

105.8

107.1

106.7

105.4

105.9

105.3

107.0

108.5

107.0

21
2211,2
2211
2212

6.03
9.34
8.06
1.28

93.9
110.4
112.2
100.8

92.2
113.3
115.8
99.9

92.3
112.1
113.7
103.6

93.6
112.1
113.3
105.8

95.2
110.5
112.2
101.6

93.6
115.0
116.8
105.4

93.5
116.3
118.0
107.4

93.9
111.7
113.6
101.1

94.2
111.8
113.7
102.0

Total IP

MARKET GROUPS
Final products and nonindustrial supplies
Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Home electronics
Appliances, furniture, carpeting
Miscellaneous goods
Nondurable
Non-energy
Foods and tobacco
Clothing
Chemical products
Paper products
Energy
Business equipment
Transit
Information processing
Industrial and other
Defense and space equipment
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials
Non-energy
Durable
Consumer parts
Equipment parts
Other
Nondurable
Textile
Paper
Chemical
Energy

INDUSTRY GROUPS
Manufacturing
Manufacturing (NAICS)
Durable manufacturing
Wood products
Nonmetallic mineral products
Primary metal
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Computer and electronic products
Electrical equip., appliances,
and components
Motor vehicles and parts
Aerospace and other miscellaneous
transportation equipment
Furniture and related products
Miscellaneous
Nondurable manufacturing
Food, beverage, and tobacco products
Textile and product mills
Apparel and leather
Paper
Printing and support
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical
Plastics and rubber products
Other manufacturing (non-NAICS)
Mining
Utilities
Electric
Natural gas
r Revised. p Preliminary.
NOTE. See notes to table 1.

9

Table 5

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: SPECIAL AGGREGATES
1997 = 100, seasonally adjusted
2002
proportion

It
Item

2002
Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

2003
Jan.r

Feb.r

Mar.r

Apr.p

100.00

111.3

111.2

110.6

110.8

109.9

110.7

110.7

110.2

109.7

Energy
Consumer products
Commercial products
Oil and gas well drilling
Converted fuel
Primary materials

16.15
3.98
2.22
3.41
6.30

104.0
111.6
116.7
90.4
103.8
96.2

104.7
112.8
120.1
91.0
105.1
95.4

103.8
111.8
118.6
92.3
103.4
95.2

104.8
114.0
118.4
88.3
103.5
96.5

104.8
113.3
116.5
93.7
102.4
97.7

106.5
115.7
120.9
88.6
106.0
97.5

107.3
117.2
122.5
92.6
107.6
97.3

104.9
113.8
117.2
90.6
105.4
96.1

104.9
113.4
117.5
93.4
105.3
96.3

Non-energy

83.85

112.4

112.2

111.6

111.6

110.6

111.1

111.0

110.9

110.2

3341
3342

5.30
1.20
1.68

296.8
231.1
136.8

296.3
234.6
131.7

299.5
240.4
131.7

301.7
245.0
130.4

299.9
248.7
127.0

302.7
252.7
128.9

305.2
258.3
128.8

310.4
264.3
132.1

313.6
269.7
130.2

334412–9

2.42

512.3

518.9

524.9

531.3

529.2

530.0

534.0

538.6

549.8

78.55

100.6

100.4

99.7

99.7

98.7

99.2

99.0

98.8

98.1

7.12
3.02
3.70

122.0
126.1
119.9

121.1
124.4
119.9

118.3
118.6
119.2

123.9
127.2
122.3

117.8
117.9
118.8

122.9
125.4
122.7

119.7
120.4
120.7

117.9
118.1
119.3

115.5
115.9
116.9

Excluding motor vehicles and parts
Consumer goods
Business equipment
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials

71.43
22.46
7.16
6.73
9.71
25.53

98.7
102.1
91.5
104.6
103.4
96.7

98.6
102.3
90.6
104.3
104.3
96.5

98.1
101.7
89.8
104.0
103.7
95.9

97.6
101.3
89.4
103.6
103.1
95.5

97.0
100.9
88.4
102.2
102.6
94.9

97.2
101.1
88.9
102.1
103.4
94.9

97.2
101.0
88.8
101.6
104.0
95.2

97.1
101.1
88.3
101.4
103.1
95.0

96.6
100.7
88.0
100.5
102.5
94.4

Measures excluding selected high-technology
industries
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

94.70
79.32
38.31

101.2
100.6
100.4

101.2
100.4
99.8

100.5
99.7
99.2

100.6
99.8
99.7

99.8
98.8
98.2

100.5
99.3
99.3

100.5
99.1
98.8

99.9
98.9
98.1

99.3
98.2
97.3

Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

92.88
77.51
36.49

110.5
111.5
122.3

110.5
111.3
121.6

110.0
110.8
121.6

109.8
110.5
121.3

109.3
109.9
120.5

109.8
110.1
121.1

110.1
110.3
121.2

109.6
110.3
121.0

109.2
109.8
120.6

Stage-of-process components of non–energy
materials, measures of the input to
Finished processors
Semifinished and primary processors

13.94
16.55

138.5
99.9

138.5
99.6

138.2
98.8

139.2
98.3

137.1
97.9

138.0
98.0

137.2
98.7

137.1
98.3

136.2
97.6

Total industry

Selected high-technology industries
Computers and office equipment
Communications equipment
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
Excluding selected high-technology
industries
Motor vehicles and parts
Motor vehicles
Motor vehicle parts

3361–3
3361
3363

r Revised. p Preliminary.
1. See note on cover page.

Table 6

DIFFUSION INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Percent
Item
It

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

One month earlier
2001
2002
2003

41.4
55.6
54.9

40.3
61.0
48.5

40.3
61.0
41.0

46.8
58.0

35.3
59.3

38.0
55.9

47.5
52.9

45.1
48.5

42.4
43.9

43.1
41.7

38.6
48.1

49.5
45.1

Three months earlier
2001
2002
2003

34.6
44.7
47.8

29.8
55.1
44.7

33.9
59.9
43.4

36.9
60.7

33.9
63.1

36.9
62.0

39.0
63.7

40.3
58.3

38.0
47.5

40.7
38.3

37.6
47.1

40.3
42.0

Six months earlier
2001
2002
2003

30.2
39.3
41.4

30.5
43.9
42.0

28.5
52.7
40.3

27.8
53.7

27.8
66.3

30.8
66.3

31.5
65.8

38.0
63.7

38.0
54.9

32.5
49.8

33.2
51.2

38.0
45.4

NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half
the percentage that were unchanged.

10

Table 7

CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted
19722002
ave.

198889
high

199091
low

199495
high

2002
Q2

Q3

Q4

2003
Q1r

2003
Jan.r

Feb.r

Mar.r

Apr.p

100.00

81.3

85.1

78.6

84.8

75.7

76.2

75.3

75.2

75.3

75.3

74.8

74.4

86.69
81.79

80.2
80.0

85.6
85.5

77.2
77.0

84.3
84.4

73.9
73.5

74.3
73.8

73.5
73.0

73.2
72.6

73.3
72.8

73.2
72.6

73.0
72.3

72.5
71.9

321
327
331
332
333
334

47.13
1.47
2.34
2.42
6.47
5.94
10.28

78.5
80.3
79.5
81.0
77.1
79.9
79.6

84.5
88.7
85.6
95.3
80.1
84.7
81.5

73.4
73.1
72.1
75.2
71.0
72.9
76.4

83.7
87.7
83.7
94.8
83.6
88.7
85.4

70.2
75.0
80.4
76.4
71.2
68.2
62.7

70.5
75.2
81.3
77.1
71.3
68.3
62.6

69.7
72.6
81.5
77.6
70.8
66.7
62.3

69.3
70.8
81.2
77.6
69.7
67.2
62.0

69.8
72.0
81.8
76.9
70.1
66.8
62.3

69.3
70.7
81.2
79.3
69.6
67.2
61.8

68.9
69.7
80.6
76.7
69.5
67.7
61.9

68.3
70.2
80.0
75.2
68.8
67.8
61.8

335
3361–3

2.40
6.79

83.3
77.3

87.5
90.0

75.0
56.6

92.5
87.0

76.1
80.0

75.9
82.7

75.5
80.8

74.6
80.1

74.7
82.3

75.1
79.8

74.0
78.4

73.7
76.5

3364–9
337
339

4.13
1.80
3.10

73.1
79.2
77.1

88.9
84.1
81.7

81.9
68.1
77.5

67.9
83.7
81.2

60.2
71.1
76.0

59.1
70.8
75.5

58.7
70.1
74.7

59.1
69.0
74.5

59.3
69.2
74.6

59.1
69.4
74.3

59.0
68.3
74.6

58.9
67.3
74.2

311,2
313,4
315,6
322
323
324
325
326

34.66
10.97
1.33
1.33
2.87
2.57
1.52
10.37
3.69

82.2
82.4
83.6
80.0
88.5
84.8
86.4
78.7
83.7

86.9
85.5
91.1
83.9
94.0
91.7
88.9
85.6
91.2

81.8
81.3
77.1
77.2
85.4
82.7
82.5
80.8
77.1

85.4
84.3
90.6
89.1
92.6
86.0
90.4
81.3
92.3

78.1
80.2
74.2
65.3
82.5
77.1
89.9
74.6
79.4

78.5
79.7
74.2
64.8
84.0
80.3
88.7
75.3
80.4

77.6
78.7
73.1
63.2
84.2
80.9
88.9
73.7
79.4

77.2
78.0
71.3
62.5
82.3
80.3
88.0
74.3
79.4

77.2
78.5
70.7
62.9
81.9
81.3
88.0
73.8
79.1

77.2
77.9
71.4
62.9
81.9
80.3
87.7
74.6
79.5

77.2
77.8
71.7
61.9
83.3
79.4
88.2
74.6
79.5

76.8
77.8
70.7
60.9
82.5
79.3
86.4
74.1
79.3

1133,5111

4.89

83.6

90.2

79.1

82.7

80.3

81.8

82.3

83.3

82.0

83.4

84.6

83.4

21
2211,2

5.20
8.12

86.9
86.7

85.6
92.6

83.3
84.2

88.5
93.8

84.8
87.8

84.9
88.2

85.1
86.0

84.9
86.9

84.9
87.8

84.8
88.4

85.1
84.5

85.4
84.3

3341
3342

7.08
1.36
2.52

79.3
78.6
78.4

80.4
79.7
82.0

74.6
67.0
73.3

88.5
86.4
87.4

62.2
74.2
55.2

62.2
74.4
52.0

62.2
77.1
49.8

62.0
79.3
50.0

61.8
78.4
49.6

61.8
79.3
49.6

62.3
80.3
50.8

62.4
81.1
50.1

334412–9

3.20

81.2

81.4

78.7

92.0

63.7

66.3

67.0

65.4

65.8

65.4

65.0

65.4

92.92
79.61

81.4
80.2

85.5
86.1

78.8
77.3

84.6
84.0

77.1
75.3

77.6
75.8

76.8
75.0

76.6
74.7

76.8
74.9

76.8
74.7

76.2
74.5

75.8
73.9

8.45
49.25
42.30

86.4
82.2
78.5

88.6
86.2
83.1

84.7
77.6
77.2

89.3
87.7
80.3

83.2
77.7
71.7

83.8
78.5
71.6

83.1
77.9
70.6

83.0
77.6
70.5

82.6
77.8
70.8

83.0
77.9
70.4

83.4
77.1
70.3

83.2
76.5
70.0

2002
proportion

Item

Total industry
Manufacturing
Manufacturing (NAICS)
Durable manufacturing
Wood products
Nonmetallic mineral products
Primary metal
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Computer and electronic products
Electrical equip., appliances,
and components
Motor vehicles and parts
Aircraft and other miscellaneous
transportation equipment
Furniture and related products
Miscellaneous
Nondurable manufacturing
Food, beverage, and tobacco products
Textile and product mills
Apparel and leather
Paper
Printing and support
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical
Plastics and rubber products
Other manufacturing (non-NAICS)
Mining
Utilities
Selected high-technology industries
Computers and office equipment
Communications equipment
Semiconductors and related
electronic components

Measures excluding selected high-technology
industries
Total industry
Manufacturing1

STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS

Crude
Primary and semifinished
Finished

r Revised. p Preliminary.
1. See note on cover page.

Table 8

INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY
Percent change
Item

197279

Average annual rate
1980198988
94

Fourth quarter to fourth quarter
19952003

2000

2001

2002

2003p

2002
Q3

Annual rate
2003
Q4
Q1

Q2

Monthly rate
2003
Apr.

Total industry

2.8

1.8

2.2

4.1

4.3

2.4

1.1

1.6

1.0

1.0

1.3

1.6

.1

Manufacturing1

3.1

2.1

2.6

4.5

5.0

2.4

.9

1.3

.7

.6

.9

1.4

.1

Mining
Utilities

.7
3.6

.1
1.7

-.8
1.3

.0
2.9

-.4
2.9

2.2
4.1

-.2
6.5

.4
5.2

-.3
6.8

.3
6.7

.5
5.9

.4
5.2

.0
.4

18.2

17.2

15.4

32.2

40.3

23.2

8.7

11.9

7.5

6.9

9.1

11.8

.9

2.4

1.2

1.7

2.0

1.5

.4

-.1

.6

-.1

-.1

.3

.6

.1

1.6
2.8
3.5

.3
1.4
3.0

-.2
2.5
2.5

.0
5.3
3.7

-.4
5.6
4.0

.8
3.0
2.0

-.6
1.7
.9

.1
2.3
1.0

-.6
1.5
.9

-.2
1.3
.9

.1
1.7
.9

.1
2.3
1.0

.0
.2
.1

Selected high-technology industries
Manufacturing1 ex. selected
high-technology industries

STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS
Crude
Primary and semifinished
Finished

p Preliminary.
1. See note on cover page.

11

Table 9

GROSS VALUE OF FINAL PRODUCTS AND NONINDUSTRIAL SUPPLIES
Billions of 1996 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted
1996

2002

2002
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2003
Q1r

2003
Jan.r

Feb.r

Mar.r

Apr.p

2,409.0

2,801.4

2,776.8

2,804.1

2,823.6

2,798.7

2,799.5

2,808.6

2,802.0

2,787.8

2,772.4

1,751.3
1,227.6
354.0
216.1
137.9
873.6

2,022.5
1,386.5
459.9
296.3
161.5
927.7

2,008.1
1,372.4
448.9
284.8
162.8
923.6

2,024.6
1,387.2
459.4
295.1
162.3
928.7

2,038.2
1,398.2
471.4
308.9
159.6
928.8

2,019.9
1,388.4
466.7
303.1
161.1
923.6

2,024.3
1,393.0
468.6
305.0
161.1
926.3

2,032.1
1,399.9
476.3
311.4
162.0
926.4

2,024.6
1,393.5
466.9
303.9
160.4
928.2

2,016.1
1,385.6
462.7
299.6
160.8
924.2

2,004.8
1,377.5
458.8
296.3
160.3
919.8

Equipment, total
Business and defense
Business
Defense and space

523.7
508.8
428.1
80.6

626.9
616.9
531.2
84.1

628.3
617.3
533.6
82.5

628.7
618.8
533.8
83.6

630.7
620.7
534.5
84.6

621.3
611.8
524.9
85.0

620.6
611.9
523.8
85.9

620.9
612.3
524.4
85.8

620.3
611.4
523.4
85.9

620.6
612.0
523.7
86.1

617.4
608.6
520.7
85.8

Nonindustrial supplies
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Commercial energy products

657.8
255.8
402.0
113.0

778.9
279.1
502.2
132.6

768.6
277.2
493.4
128.6

779.6
280.4
501.5
132.7

785.5
280.7
507.4
134.6

778.9
277.5
504.2
133.6

775.1
273.0
505.7
135.3

776.4
274.1
505.8
136.2

777.4
272.8
508.4
137.7

771.5
272.0
503.0
132.1

767.6
270.0
501.1
132.4

It
Item

Final products and nonindustrial
supplies
Final products
Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Other durable goods
Nondurable

r Revised. p Preliminary.

Table 10

GROSS-VALUE-WEIGHTED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
Fourth quarter to
fourth quarter

It
Item

2002
gross value1

Finished
Semi-finished
Primary
Crude

1773.1
1771.7
866.8
355.2

Annual rate

2000

2001

2002

2002
Q2

1.8
3.8
-1.3
-4.5

-5.2
-5.7
-6.0
-4.3

.4
3.2
3.5
-.4

1.8
7.6
7.4
5.1

Q3
2.8
6.1
1.4
2.3

Monthly rate

Q4

2003
Q1r

2003
Jan.r

Feb.r

Mar.r

Apr.p

-5.1
-2.6
-1.7
-6.2

-.2
-.5
2.8
-1.2

1.3
.7
.7
-.9

-.6
.0
.7
.5

-.4
-.5
-1.3
.5

-.4
-.7
-.8
-.5

Apr. ’02
to
Apr. ’03
-1.3
.0
-.4
-.9

r Revised. p Preliminary.
1. Billions of 1996 dollars.

Table 11

ELECTRIC POWER USE
1997 = 100
Item

1997
billion
kWh

2002
Oct.

Seasonally adjusted
2003
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.r
Feb.r

Mar.p

2002
Oct.

Not seasonally adjusted
2003
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.r
Feb.r

Mar.p

Total Industry

983.9

89.7

88.7

88.7

87.8

87.9

86.7

91.7

88.5

87.2

86.1

85.7

85.3

Manufacturing1
Durable
Nondurable

890.9
386.5
498.4

90.0
90.7
89.4

88.9
89.9
88.1

88.8
90.1
87.8

87.9
88.5
87.4

88.0
88.6
87.4

86.7
87.5
85.9

92.1
92.3
91.9

88.5
88.2
88.7

87.2
87.0
87.3

85.9
85.9
85.9

85.5
86.1
85.0

85.2
86.0
84.6

93.0

86.2

86.3

86.6

86.2

87.7

87.7

86.5

87.6

88.1

88.7

88.1

86.6

962.6
913.5
70.4

90.4
88.5
115.1

89.6
87.9
117.1

89.4
87.6
121.6

88.4
86.8
120.1

88.4
86.5
120.5

87.5
85.9
115.5

91.9
90.1
117.6

88.6
86.8
115.7

87.1
85.0
123.7

86.1
83.8
123.6

85.5
83.8
115.4

85.3
83.3
117.5

Mining
Total ex. nuclear nondefense
Utility sales to industry
Industrial generation

r Revised. p Preliminary.
1. See note on cover page.
NOTE. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/download.htm.

12

Table 12

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change)1
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

-.6
-1.7
1.9
2.1
-.3

-.4
1.9
-.5
.2
.5

.5
-.7
.7
.7
.0

-.5
-.8
1.3
.6
.0

.7
-.8
.7
.5
.1

.5
-.4
.6
.3
-.1

.7
-.3
1.5
.3
-.6

-.1
-.8
1.1
.1
.4

-.7
-.4
1.5
-.3
.4

-.7
-1.0
.7
-.1
-.4

-1.1
-.3
.4
.3
.3

-1.2
-.9
.5
.0
1.0

1.1
-7.2
4.5
12.6
.8

1.4
-5.3
9.8
6.6
.6

4.1
-5.8
14.5
2.7
-.7

-9.0
-7.9
10.4
.0
2.2

1.2
-5.2
2.6
9.0
1.1

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

.5
-.6
.1
.3
-.6

-.6
1.3
.4
-.5
.9

-.6
.2
.2
.4
.5

.0
.6
.4
.0
.0

.1
.6
-.1
-.7
.0

-.3
.6
.1
.0
.4

.3
.7
.3
-1.0
-.2

.1
.7
.6
.9
.1

.2
.2
-.3
-.3
.1

.4
1.3
.5
-.1
-.6

.5
.4
.3
.2
-1.3

.8
.4
.4
.7
-.6

2.6
4.5
3.4
1.8
2.9

-2.6
7.1
2.7
-1.5
3.2

.9
7.5
2.4
-3.0
.8

4.9
8.8
3.0
1.3
-6.0

.9
4.8
4.8
.9
.8

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

-.4
-.6
.4
.5
.5

-.7
.8
.3
.1
.1

-.5
.8
.2
.9
.0

.2
.6
.2
.6
-.1

1.0
.4
-.4
.6
.3

.9
-.1
.2
.7
.4

.1
.8
.4
.2
-.4

-.1
-.4
-.1
.5
1.4

.9
.2
.7
.1
.4

-.2
.7
.5
.8
-.2

-.2
.5
.5
.6
.4

-.3
.1
.6
1.1
.4

-7.3
-.4
3.5
5.7
6.0

2.4
6.9
1.1
7.4
.8

5.2
3.0
2.1
5.0
4.1

.6
4.2
6.0
7.6
3.7

-1.6
2.7
3.3
5.4
4.9

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

-.8
.3
.5
.7
.1

1.4
1.4
.3
.3
.7

-.2
.4
.3
.4
.4

.9
.5
.6
.2
.7

.7
.4
.5
.5
.6

.9
.5
-.5
.1
.2

.0
.4
-.1
.7
-.2

.6
1.0
1.8
.5
-.2

.6
.9
-.2
-.1
.3

.1
.8
.7
.9
-.4

.9
.6
-.3
.6
-.1

.6
.3
.1
.7
-.3

2.0
8.7
4.5
4.2
5.4

8.0
6.5
4.2
4.1
7.1

5.8
7.6
3.3
4.9
.2

6.5
9.2
4.0
6.5
-1.6

4.4
7.4
5.6
4.3
4.7

2001
2002
2003

-.8
.6
.7

-.5
.2
.0

-.5
.4
-.5

-.5
.4
-.5

-.6
.3

-.6
.3

-.1
.7

-.3
-.2

-.7
-.1

-.4
-.6

-.6
.2

-.5
-.8

-6.1
1.4
.4

-6.1
4.4

-4.6
3.4

-5.8
-3.4

-3.5
-.7

IP (1997=100)
2001
2002
2003

114.2
109.0
110.7

113.6
109.2
110.7

113.1
109.6
110.2

112.5
110.1
109.7

111.8
110.4

111.1
110.8

111.0
111.6

110.7
111.3

109.9
111.2

109.5
110.6

108.8
110.8

108.3
109.9

113.6
109.3
110.5

111.8
110.5

110.5
111.4

108.9
110.4

111.2
110.5

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2001
2002
2003

142.3
145.3
146.9

142.7
145.4
147.1

143.0
145.6
147.2

143.4
145.7
147.4

143.6
145.9

143.9
146.0

144.1
146.1

144.4
146.2

144.6
146.4

144.8
146.5

145.0
146.6

145.1
146.7

142.7
145.4
147.1

143.6
145.9

144.4
146.2

145.0
146.6

143.9
146.0

Utilization
(percent)
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

80.8
75.5
72.1
79.6
79.9

80.3
76.8
71.6
79.7
80.2

80.5
76.0
72.1
80.2
80.0

79.9
75.2
73.1
80.5
79.8

80.4
74.5
73.6
80.8
79.7

80.6
74.1
74.0
81.0
79.4

81.0
73.7
75.1
81.1
78.8

80.7
73.0
75.9
81.0
79.0

80.0
72.6
76.9
80.6
79.2

79.2
71.8
77.4
80.4
78.8

78.1
71.5
77.7
80.5
78.9

77.0
70.8
78.0
80.3
79.5

80.5
76.1
71.9
79.8
80.0

80.3
74.6
73.5
80.8
79.6

80.5
73.1
75.9
80.9
79.0

78.1
71.3
77.7
80.4
79.1

79.9
73.8
74.8
80.5
79.4

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

79.8
78.9
83.4
85.1
82.4

79.2
79.8
83.7
84.6
83.0

78.7
79.9
83.8
84.7
83.2

78.6
80.2
84.0
84.6
83.1

78.5
80.5
83.9
83.9
83.0

78.2
80.9
84.0
83.7
83.1

78.4
81.3
84.2
82.7
82.8

78.3
81.8
84.6
83.3
82.8

78.4
81.9
84.3
82.9
82.8

78.7
82.9
84.6
82.6
82.1

78.9
83.1
84.7
82.6
81.0

79.5
83.4
84.9
83.0
80.3

79.2
79.5
83.6
84.8
82.9

78.5
80.5
84.0
84.1
83.1

78.4
81.6
84.4
82.9
82.8

79.0
83.1
84.7
82.7
81.1

78.8
81.2
84.2
83.6
82.5

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

79.9
78.7
81.0
82.1
84.8

79.2
79.3
81.1
82.0
84.5

78.6
79.8
81.1
82.6
84.2

78.7
80.1
81.1
82.9
83.7

79.4
80.3
80.7
83.1
83.6

79.9
80.1
80.7
83.5
83.6

79.9
80.7
80.9
83.4
82.9

79.7
80.2
80.6
83.6
83.6

80.3
80.2
81.0
83.4
83.6

80.0
80.6
81.3
83.8
83.0

79.8
80.9
81.6
84.1
83.0

79.4
80.8
81.9
84.7
82.9

79.2
79.3
81.1
82.2
84.5

79.3
80.2
80.8
83.2
83.6

80.0
80.4
80.9
83.5
83.4

79.7
80.8
81.6
84.2
83.0

79.6
80.1
81.1
83.3
83.6

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

81.9
82.9
83.9
82.1
82.9

82.6
83.6
83.6
82.1
83.1

82.0
83.6
83.4
82.2
83.1

82.4
83.6
83.4
82.1
83.4

82.5
83.5
83.4
82.3
83.6

82.9
83.5
82.5
82.1
83.5

82.5
83.4
82.0
82.4
83.0

82.6
83.8
83.0
82.5
82.5

82.7
84.1
82.5
82.2
82.5

82.4
84.3
82.7
82.6
81.9

82.8
84.3
82.1
82.8
81.6

83.0
84.0
81.9
83.1
81.1

82.2
83.4
83.7
82.1
83.0

82.6
83.5
83.1
82.2
83.5

82.6
83.8
82.5
82.4
82.7

82.8
84.2
82.2
82.9
81.6

82.5
83.7
82.9
82.4
82.7

2001
2002
2003

80.2
75.0
75.3

79.6
75.1
75.3

79.0
75.3
74.8

78.5
75.6
74.4

77.9
75.7

77.2
75.9

77.0
76.4

76.7
76.1

76.0
76.0

75.6
75.5

75.1
75.6

74.6
74.9

79.6
75.1
75.2

77.9
75.7

76.6
76.2

75.1
75.3

77.3
75.6

1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages.

13

Table 13

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change) 2
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

-.4
-2.2
2.5
2.0
-.4

-.4
2.6
-.2
.8
-.2

.3
-.8
1.0
.8
.7

.5
-.6
1.2
.5
-.2

.6
-.3
1.3
.3
.1

-.5
-.2
.8
.4
.1

.3
-.1
1.5
.5
-.4

.0
-.9
.7
.1
.5

-.6
-.3
1.8
-.3
.1

-1.1
-1.3
1.1
.4
-.4

-1.2
-.6
.3
.3
.6

-1.7
-.5
.3
.4
.4

.8
-8.8
9.0
13.0
-.1

3.2
-2.1
12.5
6.7
1.4

-.1
-3.9
15.0
3.7
.1

-10.6
-9.0
12.1
2.2
1.7

1.0
-5.5
4.6
9.9
1.6

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

1.2
-.6
-.1
.8
-.2

-.5
1.6
.3
-1.0
1.4

-.4
.2
.3
.0
.4

.4
.5
.7
.1
-.1

.1
.6
-.1
-.8
.1

-.4
.5
.0
.1
.3

.1
.8
.2
-1.1
-.2

.6
.5
.1
.9
.1

.2
.5
.3
-.3
-.1

.4
1.4
.5
-.2
-.7

.5
.6
.3
.1
-1.2

.9
.5
.4
.2
-.7

4.8
4.9
2.7
1.8
4.4

-.1
7.2
3.8
-3.1
2.9

1.7
7.4
1.6
-3.2
.4

5.6
10.2
4.4
.0
-6.6

2.1
5.4
5.1
.7
.6

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

-.7
-.6
.9
.4
.5

-.7
1.0
.2
.1
-.1

-.7
.9
.0
1.2
.1

.4
.5
.4
.8
-.1

.7
.6
-.1
.7
.1

1.1
.2
-.2
.3
.5

.4
.8
.3
.4
-.6

.0
-.3
-.2
.8
1.2

1.1
.0
.9
.2
.9

-.1
.6
.6
.9
-.2

-.3
.5
.5
.8
.2

-.1
-.2
.6
1.1
.5

-8.6
.8
4.3
5.9
6.3

2.0
7.9
1.5
9.3
.4

6.9
4.0
1.3
6.0
3.2

1.4
3.0
6.7
9.3
4.5

-2.0
3.6
3.5
6.1
5.3

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

-.9
.3
.9
.5
.2

1.3
1.6
.2
.6
.6

-.3
.6
.2
.2
.8

1.1
.3
.8
.4
.7

.7
.5
.3
.7
.4

1.1
.7
-.6
.0
.3

.4
.3
-.1
.5
-.1

.6
1.4
2.1
.8
-.5

.7
.8
-.3
.0
.4

.1
.7
1.0
1.0
-.4

.9
.8
-.1
.8
-.4

.8
.4
.2
.6
-.6

1.0
10.1
6.5
4.4
6.1

9.1
7.7
3.8
4.7
7.1

8.3
8.7
3.8
4.9
.1

6.8
9.7
6.1
8.0
-2.9

4.7
8.5
6.5
4.9
5.0

2001
2002
2003

-.8
.6
.5

-.5
.1
-.1

-.5
.2
-.1

-.5
.3
-.6

-.6
.4

-.7
.4

.0
.4

-.5
.1

-.6
-.2

-.6
-.6

-.4
.1

-.4
-.9

-7.1
1.2
-.6

-6.2
3.5

-4.9
3.0

-6.1
-3.7

-4.1
-1.1

IP (1997=100)
2001
2002
2003

115.7
110.3
111.1

115.1
110.4
111.0

114.5
110.7
110.9

114.0
111.0
110.2

113.3
111.4

112.5
111.9

112.5
112.3

111.9
112.4

111.2
112.1

110.6
111.4

110.1
111.6

109.6
110.6

115.1
110.5
111.0

113.3
111.4

111.9
112.3

110.1
111.2

112.6
111.4

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2001
2002
2003

147.5
150.4
151.6

147.9
150.5
151.7

148.2
150.6
151.9

148.5
150.8
152.1

148.8
150.9

149.1
151.0

149.3
151.1

149.5
151.1

149.7
151.2

149.9
151.3

150.1
151.4

150.2
151.4

147.9
150.5
151.7

148.8
150.9

149.5
151.1

150.1
151.4

149.1
151.0

Utilization
(percent)
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

78.5
71.8
70.2
78.3
79.1

77.9
73.6
70.0
78.8
78.7

78.0
72.8
70.7
79.3
79.1

78.2
72.3
71.5
79.6
78.7

78.5
71.9
72.5
79.6
78.6

77.9
71.7
73.0
79.8
78.5

77.9
71.5
74.0
80.0
78.0

77.7
70.7
74.5
79.9
78.2

77.1
70.5
75.8
79.5
78.2

76.1
69.4
76.6
79.6
77.7

75.0
69.0
76.8
79.6
78.1

73.6
68.6
76.9
79.7
78.3

78.1
72.8
70.3
78.8
79.0

78.2
72.0
72.3
79.7
78.6

77.6
70.9
74.8
79.8
78.1

74.9
69.0
76.8
79.6
78.0

77.2
71.1
73.5
79.5
78.4

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

79.1
78.8
83.2
85.6
81.6

78.6
79.9
83.4
84.5
82.5

78.2
79.8
83.6
84.4
82.7

78.4
80.1
84.1
84.3
82.4

78.4
80.4
84.0
83.4
82.3

78.1
80.7
83.9
83.3
82.3

78.1
81.1
84.1
82.2
82.0

78.4
81.4
84.1
82.8
82.0

78.5
81.7
84.3
82.3
81.8

78.7
82.7
84.7
82.0
81.0

78.9
83.1
84.8
81.8
79.9

79.4
83.4
85.0
81.8
79.2

78.6
79.5
83.4
84.8
82.3

78.3
80.4
84.0
83.7
82.3

78.3
81.4
84.2
82.4
81.9

79.0
83.1
84.8
81.9
80.1

78.6
81.1
84.1
83.2
81.6

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

78.5
77.7
80.2
80.9
84.3

77.9
78.4
80.1
80.8
83.9

77.2
79.0
80.0
81.6
83.6

77.3
79.2
80.2
82.0
83.1

77.8
79.5
79.9
82.4
82.8

78.4
79.5
79.6
82.4
82.8

78.6
80.0
79.7
82.5
81.8

78.4
79.6
79.4
82.9
82.4

79.2
79.4
79.9
82.8
82.7

78.9
79.7
80.2
83.2
82.1

78.6
80.0
80.5
83.6
81.8

78.3
79.7
80.8
84.2
81.8

77.9
78.4
80.1
81.1
83.9

77.8
79.4
79.9
82.3
82.9

78.7
79.7
79.7
82.7
82.3

78.6
79.8
80.5
83.7
81.9

78.3
79.3
80.0
82.4
82.8

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

80.6
81.6
83.2
81.2
81.9

81.2
82.5
82.9
81.3
82.0

80.5
82.6
82.5
81.2
82.2

80.9
82.5
82.6
81.1
82.4

81.0
82.5
82.3
81.4
82.4

81.5
82.6
81.3
81.1
82.3

81.4
82.4
80.8
81.2
81.9

81.4
83.0
82.0
81.5
81.2

81.6
83.1
81.4
81.2
81.2

81.3
83.2
81.8
81.6
80.6

81.6
83.3
81.3
81.9
80.0

81.8
83.1
81.1
82.1
79.3

80.7
82.3
82.9
81.2
82.0

81.2
82.5
82.0
81.2
82.4

81.5
82.8
81.4
81.3
81.4

81.6
83.2
81.4
81.9
80.0

81.2
82.7
81.9
81.4
81.4

2001
2002
2003

78.5
73.3
73.3

77.8
73.4
73.2

77.3
73.5
73.0

76.8
73.6
72.5

76.1
73.9

75.5
74.1

75.3
74.3

74.8
74.3

74.3
74.1

73.8
73.7

73.4
73.7

73.0
73.0

77.9
73.4
73.2

76.1
73.9

74.8
74.3

73.4
73.5

75.6
73.7

1. See note on cover page.
2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages.

14

Table 14

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Excluding Selected
High-Technology Industries
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change) 1
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

-.7
-1.8
1.9
2.1
-.3

-.5
1.8
-.6
.1
.6

.5
-.8
.7
.6
.0

-.7
-.9
1.3
.5
.1

.7
-.9
.6
.4
.1

.5
-.4
.5
.2
-.1

.7
-.4
1.4
.2
-.5

-.2
-.8
1.2
-.1
.4

-.7
-.4
1.2
-.3
.5

-.8
-1.1
.7
-.1
-.4

-1.2
-.4
.3
.3
.3

-1.3
-1.0
.5
.0
1.0

.2
-8.1
3.6
11.4
.5

.5
-6.2
9.0
5.2
1.1

3.4
-6.5
13.6
1.5
-.3

-10.0
-8.5
9.2
-.8
2.3

.5
-6.0
1.8
7.8
.8

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

.6
-.7
.1
.3
-.7

-.6
1.3
.5
-.5
.9

-.7
.2
.1
.4
.5

-.1
.5
.3
-.1
-.1

.0
.5
-.2
-.7
.0

-.1
.5
.1
-.1
.4

.0
.6
.2
-1.2
-.2

.0
.6
.6
.8
.1

.2
.2
-.4
-.3
.1

.4
1.3
.4
-.2
-.7

.4
.3
.3
.1
-1.3

.8
.3
.4
.7
-.7

2.7
3.4
3.0
2.0
2.2

-2.9
6.4
2.0
-1.7
2.7

-.1
6.5
1.8
-3.9
.6

4.4
8.1
2.8
.6
-6.6

.8
4.0
4.2
.6
.2

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

-.3
-.8
.4
.5
.2

-.9
.8
.2
.1
-.1

-.6
.8
.1
.7
-.2

.2
.5
.3
.3
-.3

1.0
.3
-.5
.4
.1

.8
-.2
.1
.6
.2

.1
.7
.4
.0
-.6

-.1
-.4
-.2
.4
1.1

.9
.1
.6
-.1
.1

-.2
.5
.4
.6
-.6

-.3
.4
.3
.4
.2

-.5
.1
.5
.9
.3

-7.8
-1.9
3.0
4.9
3.4

1.8
5.8
.6
5.0
-1.5

5.0
1.8
1.3
3.1
1.6

.1
3.1
4.7
5.3
.3

-2.1
1.7
2.5
4.0
2.4

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

-.9
.1
.1
.4
-.4

1.2
1.1
.0
.1
.4

-.4
.0
.2
.2
.2

.7
.1
.5
-.1
.4

.4
.0
.4
.3
.2

.7
.2
-.8
-.2
.1

-.3
.2
-.5
.3
-.5

.4
.8
1.6
.4
-.4

.4
.8
-.5
-.2
.1

-.2
.7
.5
.6
-.6

.8
.3
-.5
.3
-.3

.4
-.1
-.2
.4
-.4

.2
5.5
1.1
.8
1.4

5.7
2.4
2.6
.9
3.4

2.4
4.9
-.2
1.7
-2.5

3.5
7.1
1.3
3.9
-3.6

1.8
4.2
2.9
1.2
1.4

2001
2002
2003

-.8
.6
.7

-.4
.2
.0

-.5
.4
-.6

-.3
.4
-.6

-.5
.2

-.5
.3

.0
.7

-.3
-.3

-.7
.0

-.4
-.7

-.7
.2

-.5
-.8

-6.0
1.2
.0

-5.1
3.9

-3.7
3.0

-6.1
-3.9

-4.1
-.8

IP (1997=100)
2001
2002
2003

103.6
99.3
100.5

103.2
99.6
100.5

102.7
99.9
99.9

102.4
100.3
99.3

101.8
100.5

101.3
100.8

101.3
101.5

101.0
101.2

100.3
101.2

99.9
100.5

99.3
100.6

98.7
99.8

103.2
99.6
100.3

101.8
100.6

100.9
101.3

99.3
100.3

101.3
100.5

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2001
2002
2003

129.4
130.2
130.8

129.6
130.3
130.9

129.7
130.3
131.0

129.8
130.3
131.1

129.8
130.4

129.9
130.4

130.0
130.4

130.1
130.5

130.1
130.5

130.2
130.6

130.2
130.6

130.2
130.7

129.5
130.3
130.9

129.8
130.4

130.1
130.5

130.2
130.6

129.9
130.4

Utilization
(percent)
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

80.5
75.3
71.8
79.3
79.6

80.1
76.5
71.4
79.3
79.9

80.3
75.8
71.9
79.8
79.8

79.7
75.0
72.8
80.1
79.7

80.1
74.2
73.3
80.4
79.7

80.4
73.8
73.7
80.5
79.5

80.8
73.4
74.8
80.6
79.0

80.5
72.8
75.7
80.5
79.2

79.7
72.4
76.6
80.1
79.5

78.9
71.6
77.2
79.9
79.1

77.9
71.3
77.4
80.1
79.2

76.8
70.5
77.7
79.9
79.9

80.3
75.9
71.7
79.5
79.8

80.0
74.3
73.3
80.4
79.6

80.3
72.9
75.7
80.4
79.2

77.9
71.1
77.4
80.0
79.4

79.6
73.6
74.5
80.1
79.5

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

80.3
79.2
83.7
85.5
82.6

79.7
80.1
84.1
85.0
83.3

79.1
80.2
84.1
85.2
83.5

79.0
80.5
84.4
85.0
83.3

78.9
80.8
84.3
84.4
83.2

78.8
81.2
84.3
84.2
83.4

78.7
81.6
84.5
83.1
83.1

78.6
82.1
84.9
83.6
83.1

78.7
82.1
84.5
83.2
83.1

79.0
83.2
84.8
82.9
82.4

79.3
83.4
85.0
82.9
81.2

79.8
83.7
85.3
83.3
80.6

79.7
79.8
84.0
85.2
83.1

78.9
80.8
84.3
84.5
83.3

78.7
81.9
84.6
83.3
83.1

79.4
83.4
85.1
83.0
81.4

79.2
81.5
84.5
84.0
82.7

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

80.2
78.8
81.0
82.3
84.6

79.4
79.3
81.1
82.3
84.3

78.8
79.9
81.1
82.7
83.9

78.9
80.2
81.3
82.9
83.4

79.6
80.4
80.8
83.1
83.3

80.2
80.1
80.8
83.5
83.3

80.1
80.6
81.0
83.4
82.7

80.0
80.2
80.8
83.6
83.4

80.6
80.2
81.2
83.4
83.3

80.4
80.6
81.4
83.7
82.6

80.0
80.8
81.6
84.0
82.6

79.6
80.8
82.0
84.5
82.7

79.5
79.3
81.1
82.4
84.3

79.5
80.2
81.0
83.2
83.4

80.2
80.4
81.0
83.4
83.1

80.0
80.7
81.7
84.1
82.6

79.8
80.2
81.2
83.3
83.3

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

81.7
83.1
83.8
82.4
82.4

82.6
83.8
83.6
82.3
82.6

82.1
83.6
83.6
82.3
82.6

82.5
83.5
83.7
82.1
82.9

82.7
83.3
83.9
82.2
83.0

83.1
83.2
83.0
82.0
82.9

82.7
83.1
82.3
82.1
82.4

82.8
83.6
83.4
82.2
82.0

82.9
84.0
82.8
81.9
82.0

82.6
84.3
83.1
82.3
81.5

83.1
84.3
82.5
82.5
81.1

83.3
84.0
82.2
82.8
80.8

82.1
83.5
83.7
82.3
82.5

82.8
83.3
83.5
82.1
82.9

82.8
83.5
82.9
82.1
82.1

83.0
84.2
82.6
82.5
81.1

82.7
83.6
83.2
82.3
82.2

2001
2002
2003

80.1
76.3
76.8

79.7
76.4
76.8

79.2
76.7
76.2

78.9
77.0
75.8

78.4
77.1

78.0
77.3

77.9
77.9

77.7
77.6

77.1
77.5

76.8
76.9

76.2
77.0

75.8
76.4

79.6
76.5
76.6

78.4
77.1

77.6
77.6

76.3
76.8

78.0
77.0

1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages.
NOTE. Selected high–technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components.

15

Table 15

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected
High-Technology Industries
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change) 2
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

-.6
-2.3
2.5
1.8
-.5

-.5
2.5
-.3
.7
-.2

.3
-.8
.9
.7
.7

.3
-.7
1.2
.3
.0

.5
-.4
1.3
.2
.1

-.6
-.2
.7
.3
.0

.2
-.3
1.3
.4
-.3

-.2
-.8
.9
.0
.5

-.6
-.3
1.5
-.4
.2

-1.2
-1.5
1.0
.3
-.4

-1.2
-.7
.2
.2
.6

-1.9
-.6
.2
.3
.4

-.4
-10.1
8.1
11.5
-.5

2.2
-3.1
11.6
4.8
2.1

-1.1
-4.7
13.9
2.1
.7

-11.9
-9.9
10.7
1.3
1.7

.0
-6.7
3.6
8.4
1.3

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

1.3
-.8
-.2
.8
-.3

-.5
1.5
.3
-1.1
1.4

-.4
.2
.2
.0
.3

.4
.4
.6
.0
-.2

.1
.5
-.2
-.8
.1

-.2
.5
-.1
.1
.2

-.2
.6
.1
-1.3
-.2

.5
.4
.1
.8
.2

.2
.5
.3
-.3
-.1

.4
1.4
.5
-.3
-.8

.4
.5
.3
.0
-1.3

.8
.4
.4
.2
-.7

4.9
3.6
2.2
2.1
3.7

-.3
6.3
3.1
-3.4
2.3

.5
6.1
.8
-4.2
.1

5.0
9.3
4.2
-.9
-7.4

2.1
4.4
4.3
.3
-.1

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

-.7
-.8
.9
.3
.2

-.8
1.0
.1
.1
-.3

-.8
.9
.0
.9
-.2

.4
.4
.4
.5
-.4

.7
.5
-.2
.5
-.2

1.0
.0
-.3
.2
.3

.4
.7
.3
.2
-.9

-.1
-.4
-.4
.6
.9

1.1
-.1
.8
.0
.5

-.1
.4
.5
.7
-.6

-.4
.4
.4
.6
-.1

-.3
-.2
.6
.9
.3

-9.3
-.9
3.8
4.9
3.1

1.3
6.7
.9
6.5
-2.4

6.7
2.5
.4
3.7
.3

.8
1.6
5.3
6.7
.4

-2.6
2.5
2.5
4.4
2.5

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

-1.1
.0
.5
.1
-.3

1.1
1.2
-.1
.3
.3

-.5
.2
.1
-.1
.5

1.0
.0
.7
.0
.3

.4
.1
.2
.5
-.1

.9
.4
-1.0
-.4
.2

.1
.0
-.6
.0
-.4

.3
1.2
1.9
.7
-.7

.4
.7
-.6
-.2
.2

-.3
.6
.8
.7
-.7

.7
.5
-.3
.5
-.6

.6
.0
-.1
.3
-.7

-1.2
6.3
2.6
.4
1.5

6.4
2.9
1.9
1.1
2.7

4.5
5.5
-.4
1.2
-3.0

3.3
7.2
3.1
5.1
-5.5

1.6
4.8
3.4
1.4
1.3

2001
2002
2003

-.7
.6
.5

-.5
.1
-.1

-.5
.2
-.2

-.3
.2
-.7

-.5
.3

-.6
.4

.1
.4

-.6
.0

-.6
-.2

-.7
-.7

-.4
.1

-.5
-1.0

-7.1
1.1
-1.2

-4.9
2.8

-3.8
2.6

-6.5
-4.4

-4.9
-1.2

IP (1997=100)
2001
2002
2003

103.4
99.1
99.3

102.9
99.2
99.1

102.4
99.4
98.9

102.1
99.5
98.2

101.7
99.9

101.1
100.2

101.2
100.6

100.6
100.6

100.1
100.4

99.4
99.7

99.0
99.8

98.5
98.8

102.9
99.2
99.1

101.6
99.9

100.6
100.5

98.9
99.4

101.0
99.8

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2001
2002
2003

132.4
132.7
132.6

132.5
132.7
132.7

132.5
132.6
132.7

132.6
132.6
132.8

132.6
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.5
132.7
132.7

132.6
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.6
132.6

Utilization
(percent)
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

78.0
71.3
69.8
77.8
78.6

77.5
73.0
69.7
78.3
78.3

77.6
72.3
70.3
78.8
78.8

77.7
71.8
71.2
79.0
78.6

78.0
71.4
72.1
79.0
78.6

77.5
71.2
72.6
79.2
78.5

77.5
70.9
73.6
79.4
78.2

77.3
70.3
74.2
79.3
78.4

76.7
70.1
75.4
78.8
78.5

75.6
69.0
76.2
79.0
78.1

74.6
68.6
76.3
79.0
78.5

73.1
68.1
76.5
79.1
78.7

77.7
72.2
69.9
78.3
78.5

77.7
71.4
72.0
79.0
78.6

77.1
70.4
74.4
79.1
78.4

74.4
68.6
76.3
79.0
78.4

76.8
70.7
73.2
78.9
78.5

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

79.6
79.1
83.6
86.1
81.8

79.1
80.2
83.8
85.0
82.8

78.7
80.2
84.0
84.9
83.0

78.9
80.5
84.6
84.8
82.7

78.9
80.8
84.4
83.9
82.6

78.7
81.1
84.3
83.9
82.6

78.5
81.5
84.4
82.6
82.3

78.8
81.7
84.5
83.2
82.3

78.9
82.0
84.7
82.7
82.1

79.1
83.1
85.0
82.3
81.3

79.3
83.5
85.2
82.1
80.2

79.9
83.8
85.5
82.1
79.5

79.1
79.9
83.8
85.3
82.6

78.9
80.8
84.4
84.2
82.6

78.7
81.8
84.5
82.8
82.3

79.4
83.5
85.2
82.2
80.3

79.0
81.5
84.5
83.6
81.9

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

78.8
77.7
80.2
81.0
84.0

78.1
78.4
80.1
81.0
83.6

77.3
79.0
80.0
81.7
83.2

77.5
79.2
80.2
82.0
82.7

77.9
79.5
80.0
82.3
82.4

78.6
79.5
79.7
82.3
82.4

78.8
80.0
79.8
82.4
81.5

78.6
79.6
79.5
82.8
82.0

79.4
79.4
80.0
82.7
82.2

79.2
79.6
80.3
83.1
81.5

78.8
79.8
80.5
83.4
81.3

78.5
79.5
80.8
84.0
81.3

78.1
78.4
80.1
81.2
83.6

78.0
79.4
80.0
82.2
82.5

79.0
79.6
79.8
82.6
81.9

78.9
79.6
80.5
83.5
81.4

78.5
79.3
80.1
82.4
82.3

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

80.3
81.8
83.1
81.3
81.2

81.0
82.6
82.7
81.4
81.3

80.4
82.6
82.5
81.2
81.5

81.0
82.3
82.8
81.0
81.7

81.1
82.1
82.8
81.3
81.5

81.7
82.2
81.7
80.8
81.5

81.5
81.9
81.0
80.6
81.1

81.6
82.6
82.4
81.1
80.4

81.8
82.9
81.7
80.8
80.5

81.4
83.1
82.1
81.2
79.9

81.8
83.2
81.7
81.5
79.3

82.1
82.9
81.4
81.6
78.7

80.5
82.3
82.8
81.3
81.3

81.2
82.2
82.4
81.0
81.6

81.6
82.5
81.7
80.8
80.7

81.7
83.1
81.7
81.4
79.3

81.3
82.5
82.2
81.1
80.7

2001
2002
2003

78.1
74.7
74.9

77.7
74.8
74.7

77.3
74.9
74.5

77.0
75.1
73.9

76.6
75.3

76.2
75.6

76.3
75.9

75.8
75.9

75.4
75.7

74.9
75.2

74.6
75.3

74.2
74.5

77.7
74.8
74.7

76.6
75.3

75.8
75.8

74.6
75.0

76.2
75.2

1. See note on cover page.
2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages.
NOTE. Selected high–technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components.

16

EXPLANATORY NOTE
The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release,
which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of
output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and
the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly
indexes on the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. More
detailed descriptions of industrial production, capacity utilization, and
electric power are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at
the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown
in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to
December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site.
Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided
as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of
Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please
call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes
containing historical data and the data published in this release also are
available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Publications Services, 202-452-3245.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output
of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the
reference period for the index is 1997. Manufacturing consists of those
industries included in the North American Industry Classification System,
or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and
newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have
traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the
industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been
constructed from 295 individual series based on the 2002 North American
Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series
are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups.
Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the
aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and
nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors).
Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry
groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these
industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining,
and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures,
including details regarding series classification, relative importance
weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html) . Changes in
output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and
the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special
aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of
several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are
summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of
the statistical tables, see below.
Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial
production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output
measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production
process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as
tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations
and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate
monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a
few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output
(calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a
corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the
high-technology grouping and include computers, communications
equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product
are not available, estimates of output are based on either
production-worker hours or electric power use by industry. Data on hours
worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment
survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on electric
power use are described below. The factors used to convert inputs into
estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the
inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP
indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical
developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP
indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the
quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the

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Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census;
the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey
of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of
Energy.
Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for
the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed
discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin
February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the
output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from
their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP
index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since
1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the
sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output
(I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added
estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month:
IA
m

A
I
m–1



Imp m–1

Im–1p m–1



 Imp m
 Im–1p m

The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant
tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative
contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the
relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is
about 5 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month,
then this gain would boost growth in total IP by  percentage point (0.05
x 10% = 0.5%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s
web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact
proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to
the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/
releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa).
Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the
15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the
superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent
three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are
denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output
for a given month, about 55 percent of the source data (in value-added
terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about
84 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published,
95 percent in the third month, and 96 percent in the fourth month. Data
availability by data type is summarized in the table below:
Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window
(Percent of value added in 2002)
Month of estimate
Type of data

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Physical product

24

34

46

46

Production-worker
hours

31

31

31

31

Electric power use

0

19

19

19

IP data received

55

84

95

96

IP data estimated

45

16

5

4

NOTE––The physical product group includes series based on either
monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in
the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of
the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical
product data (24 percent out of total of 46 percent). Of the 24 percent,
about two–thirds (15 percent of total IP) include series that are derived
from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may
lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received
for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data
are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the
third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of
the first month of a quarter. About 4 percent of the source data for
monthly IP––all physical product measures––are available too late for
direct inclusion in the current index and are incorporated at the time of an
annual historical revision.

Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using
Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the
current seasonal factors were estimated with data through October 2002;
for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June
2002. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business
cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted
aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted
indexes of the individual series.
Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without
regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.28 percent
during the 1987–2001 period. The average revision to the percent change
in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was
0.22 percentage point during the 1987–2001 period. In most cases (about
84 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first
estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth
estimate.
Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded
indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the
rounded indexes shown in the release.
CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity
and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and
electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate
is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity
index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture
the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a
plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after
factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of
inputs to operate the capital in place.
Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 85 detailed industries (67
in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly
correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level.
Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups,
including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing,
mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those
industries included in the North American Industry Classification System,
or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and
newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have
traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the
industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech
industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries.
Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be
consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically
available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct
monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the
Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source
data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources
(primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of
Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are
available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper,
industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for
electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 18 percent of
total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for
manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the
Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries
account for a bit less than 78 percent of total industry capacity. In the
absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity
is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total
industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to
construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap_notes.html).
Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated
in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis
through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of
individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived
from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the
monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher
index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the

18

individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent
monthly production index by the related capacity index.
Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be
consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about
the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the
Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of
capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the
movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based
utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was
the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This
was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher
utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC
(currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen
years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry
utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line
with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates
reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in
the SPC.
Perspective. Over the 1972–2001 period, the average total industry
utilization rate is 81.5 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory
operating rate has been 80.4 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at
capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the
broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and
total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in
wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are
specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month.
ELECTRIC POWER
Coverage. Electric power data for sales by utilities to industry users and
for electric power produced by cogenerators (manufacturing and mining
firms that produce electricity for their own use or to sell to a utility) are
generally collected at the 4-digit NAICS and 3-digit SIC level for mining
and manufacturing. Aggregates for 3-digit industries, as well as for total
mining, durable, nondurable, total manufacturing and total industrial
electric power use, are computed. Manufacturing consists of those
industries included in the North American Industry Classification System,
or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and
newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have
traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the
industrial sector. An aggregate showing total industry excluding nuclear
nondefense is shown separately because the value-added proportion for
the nondefense nuclear material series (part of NAICS 3251) in total IP is
considerably less than its share of total electric power use. In addition,
aggregates for utility sales to industrial users and industry generation are
computed. While only the major aggregates are shown in the release, data
for the 3- and 4-digit industries are available on the Board’s web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17).
Source Data. Electric power data are collected from a sample of utilities
and cogenerators covering all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. The
primary criterion for inclusion of a utility in the panel is whether the utility
provides electric power to industrial customers. A comparison of Federal
Reserve kilowatt-hour aggregates to estimates from the 1997 Census of
Manufactures (the most recent available) and recent reporting panel
statistics suggests the Federal Reserve data cover about 50 percent of the
overall sales to manufacturing in that year. The cogeneration panel covers
about 50 percent of cogeneration used directly by manufacturers. In order
to provide more complete coverage and correct for any shortcomings of
the survey, the series are benchmarked at the 4-digit industry level to the
latest available data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the
Census of Manufactures.
Methodology. The data we receive from utilities and cogenerators are
edited for anomalies and aggregated, using self weights, to the 4-digit
NAICS industry levels and above. Where reports are late or unavailable
for some reason, responses are estimated.
Seasonal Adjustment. Series are seasonal adjusted at the 4-digit NAICS
level, with seasonally-adjusted aggregates typically computed as sums of
seasonally adjusted components. The seasonal adjustment procedure
(Census X-12 program) is used without trading-day adjustments because

the reporting periods of the various utilities are not the same. A leap year
adjustment is also made where appropriate.
REFERENCES AND RELEASE DATES
References. The annual revision published in early December 2002 will
be described in an article published in an upcoming Federal Reserve
Bulletin. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial
production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal
Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal
Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital
is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries:
Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can
be obtained at
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital_stock_doc-latest.pdf.

Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description
of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus
a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The
major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have
been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990,
June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997,
February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002).
Release Schedule
At 9:15 a.m. on
2003: January 17, February 14, March 14, April 15, May 15, June 17,
July 16, August 15, September 15, October 16, November 14, and
December 16.

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