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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) 2008 Historical and Annual Revision For release at 2:00 p.m. (EDT) March 28, 2008 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2008 Annual Revision The Federal Reserve has revised the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. Although rates of change from January 1972 through February 2008 are affected, the revision has its largest impact on data from 2003 onward. Relative to earlier estimates, measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, total IP is now reported to have increased more slowly in 2006, but changes to output in other recent years were more modest.1 The period from 2003 through 2007 is marked by a steady, moderate rise in industrial output; on average, production increased 2.2 percent per year over this time frame, and the annual rates of change ranged from 1.5 percent to 3.1 percent. The revision to IP incorporates the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2006 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM), which shows a lower annual level of output than previously estimated. In addition to the 2006 ASM, other new source data for this year’s revision to the IP indexes include manufacturing data from selected 2006 Current Industrial Reports from the Census Bureau, annual data on the publishing industry from the Census Bureau’s Services Annual Survey, new annual data on mineral extraction for 2005 and 2006 from the U.S. Geological Survey, and updated deflators from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The new monthly production estimates also reflect the incorporation of updated seasonal factors and monthly source data that became available (or were revised) after the closing of the reporting window. Beginning with the release of March data in the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.17 Statistical Release, monthly releases will be based on a six-month reporting window: One month of new data will be reported, and the previous five months of data will be revised. For example, the monthly release to be issued on April 16 will include new data for March and revised data for October through February. Previously, the monthly releases were issued with a four-month reporting window, which covered one month of new data and revisions to the previous three months of data. The incorporation of a six-month window will allow for the inclusion of additional data before an annual revision. Over the past year, a six-month window would have allowed an additional 3 percent to 4 percent of IP to reflect primary source data that otherwise would only have been incorporated at the time of an annual revision.2 The longer reporting window will cause the latest month of data shown for a few indexes in the supplement to the G.17 release to be as many as five months earlier than the latest value for aggregate IP; the monthly values for detailed production indexes are not shown until either the underlying data are available or the reporting window is closed. Over the past year, the data issued for only one or two of the published indexes would have been affected by this change. The revision shows that the rates of capacity utilization for total industry in the fourth quarters of 2006 and 2007 were lower than previously estimated. The larger revision was for 2006, when utilization was 0.8 percentage point lower than reported earlier. The downward revision for the fourth quarter of 2007 was 0.5 percentage point; at 81.0 percent, overall utilization was the same as its 1972–2007 (long-run) average. The revised capacity utilization rates incorporate the results from the Census Bureau’s 2006 Survey of 1 Estimates 2 Some for the fourth quarter of 2007 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. IP indexes are estimated from secondary source data until primary source data become available. 1 Plant Capacity for the fourth quarter of that year. In addition, the revisions to the capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates incorporate the revised production indexes and newly available data on industrial capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Energy Information Agency of the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations. RESULTS OF THE REVISION The tables show the summary statistics for the annual revision. Tables 1A and 1B show the monthly, quarterly, and annual average index levels for IP and for capacity and utilization for January 1978 through February 2008, along with percent changes in IP and capacity utilization rates. Tables 2 and 3 show the revised rates of change in IP from 2003 through 2007 for market groups, industry groups, special aggregates, and selected detail. Table 4 shows revised annual rates of change in IP during the 2003–07 period for selected detail, and table 5 shows the rates of change in capacity by industry groups for the same period. Tables 2 through 5 also show the difference between the revised and earlier rates of change. Table 6 shows the revised capacity utilization rates for the final quarters of recent years and the differences between the revised and previous rates. Tables 7A, 7B, 8A, 8B, 9A, and 9B report the revised production, capacity, and utilization series for manufacturing, total industry excluding selected high-technology industries, and manufacturing excluding selected high-technology industries. Table 10 reports the annual proportions in IP by market and industry groups for 2000 through 2007. Industrial Production The gains in total IP were revised down, on net, over the 2003–07 period (table 2), although the index continues to rise moderately each year. Compared with the previous estimates, the increases in output are now reported to have been a little faster in 2003 and 2007, little changed in 2004, and slower in 2005 and especially in 2006.3 Manufacturing production has expanded in each year since 2003, albeit at a somewhat slower rate, on balance, than initially reported.4 Across all manufacturing industries, the largest downward revisions generally occurred for 2006, the year that marks the incorporation of the most recent ASM data. For durable goods industries as a whole, output has risen solidly in recent years, although these gains have been moderated by the recent revision. For 2003 and 2004, the revisions to output in most durable goods industries were relatively modest. Relative to previous reports, the current revision reports lower output indexes in 2005 and 2006 for nonmetallic mineral products; computer and electronic products; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment; and miscellaneous manufacturing industries. The rates of change for the production indexes for most durable goods industries in 2007 are now higher than in earlier reports. Production in nondurable manufacturing industries has advanced in every year since 2003; the largest increases occurred in 2004 and 2006. Within the nondurable goods sector, output in most recent years was little changed compared with previous estimates, except in 2006, when it rose about 1 percentage point less than reported earlier. The current revision reports noticeably lower rates of change in 2005 and 2006 in food, beverage, and tobacco products; textile and product mills; apparel and leather; printing and support; and plastics and rubber products. In contrast, the output of chemicals is now reported to have declined less in 2005, and to have risen more in 2006, than indicated earlier. The rates of change for non-NAICS manufacturing (publishing and logging) from 2004 through 2007 are lower as a result of the revision. The revised output index for this group fell in 2005, 2006, and 2007, with the 3 In this section, all the rates of change are calculated from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the reference year. Estimates for the fourth quarter of 2007 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 4 Manufacturing consists of those industries in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries— logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. 2 largest decrease in 2006. The indexes for mining and utilities are similar to the previously published estimates; the only noteworthy difference is a downward revision to the change in utilities in 2006. The estimates for selected high-technology industries—computers and peripheral equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components—incorporate sizable revisions over the 2003–07 period (table 3). On net, output in the high-tech sector is still reported to have posted robust gains in recent years. However, the output indexes are now shown to have registered lower gains in 2004, 2005, and 2006 and to have increased more rapidly in 2003 and 2007 than reported earlier. The index for computers and peripheral equipment has posted gains in each of the past few years; however, those gains are now estimated to have been lower, on balance, than shown earlier. The output of communications equipment is now reported to have expanded less rapidly in 2004 but more rapidly in other recent years. Production of semiconductors and related components has posted solid annual gains since 2003; however, the rate of increase in 2006 is now reported to have been markedly lower than estimated previously. Production by Market Group The production index for final products and nonindustrial supplies (table 2) has posted moderate gains in recent years. Compared with the previous estimates, the advance in the index is now reported to have been 1.5 percentage points lower for 2006; overall changes to the rates of increase in other years were smaller. The rise in the output of consumer goods was revised down, on net, over the 2003–07 period. The output of durable consumer goods rose in 2003, 2005, and 2007 but declined in 2004 and 2006. Over most of this period, the rates of change are now reported to have been lower than earlier estimates suggested. Notably, production gains for home electronics from 2003 to 2007 were revised down appreciably. The index for consumer nondurables shows moderate gains in output in each of the past several years. Among consumer nondurables, the indexes for foods and tobacco, clothing, and paper products were revised down for 2005 and 2006; however, the output of chemical products is now reported to have increased at a faster pace over the same time period. As revised, the index for consumer energy products posted a modest decline in 2006 rather than a small gain. The production of business equipment has increased solidly since 2004; however, relative to previously published estimates, the revised index rose more slowly in 2005, 2006, and 2007. For transit equipment, the revision finds that output declined in 2003 and 2007 and that the gains in 2005 and 2006 were less sharp than reported earlier. The production index for information processing equipment is now shown to have risen more rapidly in 2003 and 2006 than in previous reports. In contrast to earlier estimates, the production of defense and space equipment is now estimated to have fallen in 2006 and to have risen in 2007. The output of construction supplies posted solid gains in 2004 and 2005 but fell back in 2006 and 2007; relative to earlier estimates, the rates of change in recent years are generally lower. Although the production of business supplies edged down in 2006, it increased moderately in all other years since 2003; the rates of change for output in 2005 and 2006 are now reported to have been weaker than previously stated. The index for materials is now estimated to have expanded more rapidly in 2003, 2004, and 2007 and more slowly in 2005 and 2006. In particular, output gains for both durable and nondurable materials were markedly less in 2006 than stated earlier, although the rates of change for both categories are now reported to have been somewhat higher in 2007. The index for energy materials is now shown to have been slightly weaker, on net, from 2003 through 2007. Capacity Total industrial capacity is now estimated to have risen 1.1 percentage points more slowly in 2006 than 3 previously stated (table 5). Relative to earlier estimates, changes in other years were more modest. Overall, capacity declined in 2003, edged up in 2004, and then posted moderate gains from 2005 through 2007. The contour of manufacturing capacity and the revisions to that contour are similar to those for total industry. The revision shows that, relative to previous reports, aggregate capacity for the selected high-technology industries rose less quickly in 2005 and 2006 but increased somewhat more rapidly in other recent years. Excluding high-technology industries, manufacturing capacity advanced less in 2006 and 2007 than previously reported; revisions to the changes for earlier years were minor. Capacity at mines is still estimated to have contracted from 2003 to 2005 and to have expanded since then. The gains in 2006 and 2007 are now reported to have been stronger than previously published. Capacity at electric and gas utilities has risen each year since 2003. The current estimates show a noticeably slower gain in 2006 than was reported earlier; revisions to other recent years were smaller. By stage of processing, capacity in the crude stage is now reported to have risen more in 2006 and 2007 than previously shown; on net, revisions to earlier years were small. Capacity at the primary and semifinished stages rose less in 2006 than stated earlier. Relative to previous estimates, increases to the index for finished goods processors were revised down, on net, over the 2003–07 period. Capacity Utilization For the past several years, the capacity utilization rate for total industry has remained near its long-run average of 81.0 percent (table 6). For the fourth quarter of 2007, total utilization stood at its long-run average and was 0.5 percentage point lower than reported earlier. The utilization rate for total industry was revised down about 3/4 percentage point for the fourth quarter of 2006, but revisions were smaller in other recent years. Relative to earlier reports, the factory operating rate was little changed in 2004 and was revised down in 2005, 2006, and 2007. For almost all major categories of manufacturing industries over the 2005–07 period, utilization is now reported to have been lower than stated earlier, and downward revisions were particularly noticeable for 2006. Among durable goods industries, some of the largest downward revisions to utilization over the 2004–07 period were for primary metals; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; motor vehicles and parts; and aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment. The durable goods industries that reported the largest net upward revisions since 2004 were computer and electronic products, furniture and related products, and wood products. Among nondurable goods industries, only chemicals registered higher rates of utilization since 2004 than previously reported; for all other categories, operating rates are now reported to have been lower than stated earlier. Capacity utilization in the other (non-NAICS) manufacturing industries was revised sharply downward for 2006 and 2007; utilization in the fourth quarter of 2007 was 79.1 percent, 5.5 percentage points lower than its long-run average. The operating rates for the selected high-technology industries rose steadily from 2004 through 2006 but fell back last year. Relative to earlier estimates, capacity utilization is now reported to be lower in 2004 and 2005, but higher in 2006 and 2007. In the fourth quarter of 2007, the utilization rate was about 10 percentage points higher than it was in the fourth quarter of 2004, but was only 1 1/2 percentage points above its long-run average. Among the selected high-technology industries for the 2004–07 period, the operating rates for computers and peripheral equipment and for communications equipment are now shown to be lower than reported earlier and utilization rates for semiconductors and related electronic components are now higher than previously estimated. Capacity utilization in mining was revised up for 2004 and 2005 but was revised down slightly for 2006 and lowered more noticeably for 2007. Nevertheless, as of the fourth quarter of 2007, the utilization rate for mining stood at 90.2 percent, almost 3 percentage points higher than its long-run average. In electric and gas utilities, capacity utilization rates were revised down for 2005 through 2007. 4 TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF THE REVISION The benchmark indexes for manufacturing—defined for each six-digit NAICS industry as nominal gross output divided by a price index—were updated to include new as well as revised information from the 2005 and 2006 Annual Surveys of Manufactures (ASM). This revision also incorporates the 2006 Survey of Plant Capacity, other annual industry reports, recent information on prices, and revised monthly source data on physical product and production-worker hours. As mentioned earlier, the benchmark indexes for most industries incorporate updated price indexes from the industry output program of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, the price indexes for pharmaceuticals (NAICS 325412), for semiconductors (NAICS 334413), and for most components of communications equipment (NAICS 3342) are constructed by the Federal Reserve from alternative sources.5 As in recent years, the 2006 ASM did not provide data for all six-digit NAICS industries but combined some of them into higher-level industry aggregates. To maintain benchmark references that were consistent over time, the Federal Reserve used detailed information from the 2002 Census of Manufactures to impute estimates of gross output for those industries no longer reported separately. Changes to Individual Production Series With this revision, the monthly production indicators for some series have changed, and some new series have been created. Vacuum Cleaners The index for household vacuum cleaner manufacturing (NAICS 335212) is now based on monthly data on unit shipments from the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM), with a model-based inventory adjustment. Formerly, the index was based on quarterly data from the Vacuum Cleaner Manufacturers Association (VCMA). In 2003, AHAM assumed responsibility from VCMA for issuing the data. With this revision, the monthly time series was long enough to construct seasonal factors. The estimates for the change in inventories follow the procedure introduced in the 2004 annual revision; the procedure is currently used for several other industries. In short, manufacturers are assumed to want to hold inventories in proportion to their expected shipments. The estimate of inventory change is computed as the sum of three components: a trend rate of stockbuilding, a portion of the adjustment to inventories that a manufacturer would need to make to reach a desired inventory level, and the effect on stocks of shipments deviating from expected shipments. High-technology goods Computers The index for electronic computer manufacturing (NAICS 334111) was split into separate indexes for certain product classes, and these indexes are now based on new source data and methods. The new product-based indexes are for consumer desktop computers, consumer mobile computers, business desktop computers, business mobile computers, servers that use x86-based central processing units (CPUs), and servers that use CPUs other than those based on x86 architecture.6 The coverage of the indexes for servers is consistent with classifications commonly used by industry analysts. Although the six product-level indexes are not published in the monthly statistical release, they are included in the broader IP aggregate for electronic computer 5A table that lists annual and quarterly price indexes for the networking equipment component of communications equipment is attached. term x86 refers to CPUs that use either 32-bit or 64-bit processors. 6 The 5 manufacturing. All of the product-based indexes for electronic computers are derived from quarterly data on domestic absorption from IDC, an industry research group. To construct the monthly indicator, the nominal absorption data are aggregated to the industry level and converted to industry shipments based on Census trade data (by adding exports and subtracting imports). The industry-level ratio of shipments to domestic absorption is applied to each of the six product-level absorption estimates to obtain product-level shipments. These shipments are then adjusted by model-based estimates of the change in product-level inventories (refer to the discussion under Vacuum Cleaners) and divided by the relevant producer price index issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to compute a production index. Semiconductors More detail and new price data were added to the indexes for the MOS (metal-oxide semiconductor) memories portion of semiconductor and related device manufacturing (part of NAICS 334413). Previously, all subcomponents of MOS memories were included in one index. To better track differential movements in specific product categories, this revision split the MOS memory index into three subcomponents: an index for DRAM (dynamic random access memory), an index for flash memory, and an index for all other MOS memories. The underlying source data on nominal shipments for all components of memories continue to be from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). The new indexes for MOS memories will not be published separately but will continue to be included in the larger index for semiconductor and related device manufacturing. The current revision incorporates quarterly data on prices from iSuppli, an industry research group, for all three categories of MOS memories. Previously, the DRAM portion of the index relied on quarterly prices from Gartner, and the non-DRAM portion used product-level producer price indexes from the BLS that have been discontinued. Monthly interpolations of the quarterly iSuppli prices are based on average sales prices from iSuppli for the DRAM index and on average sales prices from SIA for the flash index and the other memories index. Communications Equipment This revision reorganized and introduced new source data and methods for the production indexes associated with communications equipment manufacturing (NAICS 3342). The industry is now represented by six indexes: data networking equipment; enterprise and home voice equipment; transmission, local loop, and legacy central office equipment; wireless system equipment; satellites and earth station equipment; and other communications equipment. Two of the new components of communications equipment, the index for data networking equipment and the index for enterprise and home voice equipment, are now based on quarterly data on nominal domestic absorption from Synergy Research Group. Information on routers and ethernet switches is used for the data networking equipment index, and information on enterprise voice network equipment such as PBX (private branch exchange) systems is used for the enterprise and home voice equipment index. For both indexes, the quarterly price indicators are based on matched-model price indexes constructed from the detail in the Synergy data. New quarterly source data on domestic absorption from the Dell’Oro group underlie two other new indexes for the communications equipment industry. The index for transmission, local loop, and legacy central office equipment is based on domestic absorption of optical transport equipment, including wavelength division multiplexers and switches. The index for wireless system equipment is based on domestic absorption of mobility infrastructure, including base transceiver stations, base station controllers, and mobile switching centers. For 6 these two indexes, the quarterly price indicators are based on matched-model price indexes constructed from the detail in the Dell’Oro data. The indexes for satellites and earth station equipment and for other communications equipment are based on production-worker hours. Reliability of Monthly Estimates The extended six-month reporting window will allow additional source data to be incorporated into IP before an annual revision. The table below shows the availability of source data during 2007 with a four-month reporting window. The six-month window will permit almost all of the indexes estimated in the fourth month to be calculated from source data. Availability of Monthly IP Data (Percent of value added in 2007) Month of estimate Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 29 42 56 56 Production-worker hours 42 42 42 42 IP data received 70 84 98 98 IP data estimated 30 16 2 2 Weights for Aggregation The IP index is a Fisher index. This revision uses information from the ASM to obtain updated estimates of the industry value-added weights used in the aggregation of IP indexes and capacity utilization rates. The Federal Reserve derives estimates of value added for the electric and gas utility industries from annual revenue and expense data issued by other organizations. The weights for aggregation, expressed as unit value added, were estimated with the latest data on producer prices for the period after 2006. Table 10 shows the annual value-added proportions in the IP index from 2000 through 2007. Revised Monthly Data This revision incorporates product data that became available or were revised after the regular four-month reporting window for monthly IP was closed. These data were released with too great a lag to be included with monthly IP estimates; however, the data were available for inclusion in the annual revision. Revised Seasonal Factors Seasonal factors for all series were reestimated using data that extend into 2007 or 2008. Factors for production-worker hours—which adjust for timing, holiday, and monthly seasonal patterns—were updated with data through January 2008 and were prorated to correspond with the seasonal factors for hours aggregated to the three-digit NAICS level. The updated factors for the physical product series, which include adjustments for holiday and workday patterns, used data through 2007. Seasonal factors for unit motor vehicle assemblies have been updated, and projections through June 2008 are on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/mvsf.htm. 7 Data Availability and Publication Changes Files containing the revised data and the text and tables from this release are available on the Board’s website, at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17. Updated data for the annual revision and for all of the regularly issued series on industrial production, capacity, and capacity utilization are available on the website. The revised data will also be available through the STAT-USA website of the Department of Commerce (www.stat-usa.gov). Further information on these revisions is available from the Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197). A document with printed tables of the revised estimates of series shown in the G.17 release is available upon request to the Industrial Output Section, Mail Stop 82, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551. An expanded version of this release will be published in a forthcoming article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin. 8 U.S. Networking Equipment, 1997 to 2006 Production Index Annual Estimates (indexes are 2002=100) 1997 30.1 1998 50.6 1999 72.9 2000 101.1 2001 118.6 2002 100.0 2003 110.0 2004 129.3 2005 146.4 2006 243.9 Quarterly Estimates (indexes are 2002=100) 1997Q1 22.6 Q2 26.7 Q3 32.9 Q4 38.4 Price Index Value of Production (millions of dollars) 317.6 234.4 194.4 174.1 133.2 100.0 76.6 59.9 54.1 51.3 13,870.0 17,220.1 20,677.1 25,691.3 23,103.2 14,602.6 12,158.9 11,322.5 11,559.9 18,137.0 338.0 313.3 309.8 309.3 11,126.7 12,177.4 14,843.7 17,302.9 1998Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 43.0 52.4 53.8 53.6 257.1 236.2 219.3 225.0 16,108.3 18,054.5 17,220.5 17,579.8 1999Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 68.6 75.3 72.6 75.7 202.0 190.0 194.8 191.0 20,199.2 20,853.4 20,612.7 21,072.1 2000Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 93.4 104.3 103.3 103.7 179.8 167.9 174.6 174.3 24,499.6 25,526.5 26,285.0 26,358.4 2001Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 123.8 119.5 118.9 112.3 145.4 135.3 126.2 126.0 26,242.6 23,571.2 21,887.2 20,632.9 2002Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 105.6 95.4 103.7 95.3 110.2 107.1 91.7 91.0 16,975.2 14,894.0 13,858.8 12,646.6 2003Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 93.1 108.6 123.3 114.3 88.6 81.8 71.8 64.1 12,025.6 12,951.5 12,908.9 10,680.0 2004Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 149.4 128.4 122.4 119.0 61.7 60.8 59.4 57.6 13,439.9 11,380.5 10,590.7 9,993.4 2005Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 133.4 139.9 147.2 164.7 55.0 54.6 54.0 53.0 10,686.1 11,133.7 11,600.7 12,729.0 2006Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 167.6 201.3 262.9 338.1 53.0 51.7 50.6 49.8 12,953.8 15,165.9 19,392.3 24,525.7 9 1. Total industrial production, capacity, and utilization 150 140 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Revised Earlier 150 140 130 130 120 120 Capacity 110 110 100 100 90 90 Production 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Percent of capacity 86 60 86 82 82 Utilization 78 78 74 74 70 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 10 2008 70 2. Manufacturing industrial production, capacity, and utilization 160 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Revised Earlier 160 140 140 120 120 Capacity 100 100 Production 90 90 80 80 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Percent of capacity 86 82 55 86 82 Utilization 78 78 74 74 70 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. Manufacturing consists of those industries in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries--logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing--that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. 11 2008 70 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization Industrial production Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 115 110 105 100 95 115 110 105 100 95 Excluding high-technology industries 90 90 85 85 Total IP 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Industrial production 2004 2006 2008 60 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1988 1990 Industrial production 1992 1994 1996 1998 Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 -10 2000 2002 2004 Capacity utilization 350 300 350 300 250 250 200 -5 2006 2008 -15 Percent of capacity 100 100 High-technology industries 90 90 200 Communications eq. 150 150 80 100 100 70 Computers 80 80 60 60 60 40 50 80 Excluding high-technology industries 70 60 Semiconductors 40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1990 1995 2000 2005 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 12 50 4. Consumer goods Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 120 120 Revised Earlier 100 100 Detail: 2005 to present 112 110 80 108 80 106 104 102 100 2005 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Components of consumer goods 125 2002 2006 2007 2004 2008 2006 2008 60 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 125 Revised durable Revised nondurable Earlier 105 105 Nondurable 85 85 Durable Detail: 2005 to present 65 115 65 110 105 100 2005 45 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2006 2007 2004 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 13 2008 2006 95 2008 45 5. Equipment, total 140 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 140 Revised Earlier 110 110 90 90 70 Detail: 2005 to present 70 145 135 125 50 50 115 105 2005 2006 2007 2008 30 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Components of equipment 2004 95 2006 2008 30 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 140 120 100 140 120 100 80 Detail: 2005 to present 60 80 145 135 60 125 Business 115 40 40 105 2005 2006 2007 2008 20 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Components of equipment 2004 95 2006 2008 20 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 160 160 140 140 Defense and space 120 120 100 100 80 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 14 2006 2008 80 6. Nonindustrial supplies Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 120 Revised Earlier 120 90 90 Detail: 2005 to present 115 110 70 70 105 100 2005 50 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2006 2007 2004 2008 2006 95 2008 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 120 Components of nonindustrial supplies Detail: 2005 to present 90 115 Construction 50 120 90 110 105 70 70 100 2005 50 120 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2006 2007 2004 2008 2006 95 2008 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Components of nonindustrial supplies Detail: 2005 to present 90 115 50 120 90 110 105 70 2005 50 1988 70 100 Business 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2006 2007 2004 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 15 2008 2006 95 2008 50 7. Industrial materials 115 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 115 Revised Earlier 90 90 Detail: 2005 to present 115 110 70 70 105 100 2005 50 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Components of industrial materials 2002 2006 2007 2004 2008 2006 95 2008 50 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 125 125 Energy 100 100 75 75 Detail: 2005 to present 120 115 110 Non-energy 105 100 95 2005 50 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2006 2007 2004 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 16 2008 2006 90 2008 50 8. Capacity utilization by stage of process Capacity utilization 100 95 Percent of capacity 100 Revised Earlier 95 Crude processing 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Capacity utilization 2006 2008 70 Percent of capacity 95 95 Primary and semifinished processing 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Capacity utilization 2006 2008 65 Percent of capacity 90 90 Finished processing 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 17 2004 2006 2008 60 Table 1A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Total Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual1 IP (percent change) 1978 1979 1980 1981 -1.4 -.7 .5 -.6 .5 .6 .0 -.5 1.8 .3 -.3 .6 2.1 -1.1 -2.0 -.5 .3 .8 -2.5 .7 .7 .0 -1.2 .5 -.1 -.2 -.7 .7 .4 -.7 .3 .0 .3 .1 1.6 -.6 .8 .6 1.3 -.8 .7 -.1 1.7 -1.1 .6 .1 .6 -1.1 -1.3 1.9 1.8 .8 16.7 -.6 -15.9 1.4 3.5 -1.4 -6.3 4.2 7.5 1.5 16.2 -8.7 5.5 3.0 -2.5 1.3 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 -1.9 1.9 2.0 -.3 .5 1.9 -.6 .5 .4 -.7 -.7 .9 .5 .1 -.6 -.8 1.2 .6 -.2 .1 -.7 .7 .5 .1 .1 -.4 .6 .4 .1 -.3 -.3 1.6 .3 -.6 .6 -.8 1.1 .1 .4 -.2 -.4 1.5 -.2 .4 .2 -.8 .8 -.1 -.4 .5 -.4 .3 .4 .3 .5 -.8 .5 .1 1.0 .9 -7.8 4.6 12.2 1.2 2.3 -4.9 9.5 6.3 .4 -2.4 -5.8 14.6 2.7 -.6 1.7 -7.4 10.8 .3 2.4 4.6 -5.2 2.8 8.9 1.2 1.0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 -.3 .0 .2 -.5 -.5 1.3 .4 -.5 .9 -.7 .2 .3 .2 .5 -.5 .6 .6 .0 -.1 .2 .7 -.1 -.7 .2 1.0 .5 .2 .0 .3 1.0 .6 .2 -.9 -.1 .0 .7 .5 .9 .2 .1 .3 -.3 -.3 .2 .8 1.5 .6 -.1 -.7 -.2 .5 .2 .3 -1.2 -.2 .5 .4 .7 -.7 -.3 5.4 3.5 1.5 3.2 -7.5 7.2 3.5 -1.8 2.8 2.6 7.3 2.1 -2.5 1.4 5.5 10.2 3.2 1.8 -6.0 .7 5.2 5.2 .9 1.0 -1.6 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.6 .5 .4 .3 -.6 .7 .3 .0 .0 1.7 .8 .0 1.1 .1 -.2 .7 .3 .5 -.1 .7 .4 -.4 .6 .2 .6 .0 .2 .7 .3 .9 .8 .3 .2 -.4 -.1 -.5 .0 .5 1.3 .6 .2 .4 .2 .4 .5 .7 .7 .8 -.2 .0 .4 .4 .7 .3 .9 .0 .5 1.1 .5 .7 -.3 3.5 5.2 5.3 3.5 7.3 1.2 7.4 .9 7.7 2.9 2.1 5.2 3.8 5.1 3.9 6.0 8.2 3.3 5.6 2.8 3.3 5.3 4.8 4.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .1 .4 .5 .1 -.7 1.2 .0 .4 .4 -.6 .8 .0 .2 .4 -.3 .0 .5 .2 .6 -.3 .6 .6 .7 .2 -.7 .5 -.5 -.2 .1 -.6 .6 -.4 .6 -.2 -.5 1.4 2.1 .5 -.2 -.4 .9 -.3 -.4 .4 -.4 .7 .7 1.3 -.4 -.6 .9 -.1 .6 .0 -.5 .4 .3 .8 -.3 .0 8.0 4.1 4.3 4.9 -5.5 6.3 3.1 3.8 5.0 -5.2 9.7 2.9 4.0 -.3 -5.9 10.7 5.2 8.0 -1.3 -5.2 7.3 5.9 4.3 4.2 -3.4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .5 .6 .3 .5 .1 .1 .4 .5 .6 -.1 .7 -.2 -.5 .0 .2 .4 -.8 .5 -.1 .4 .5 .0 .7 .3 -.1 1.0 .2 -.8 .4 .5 -.3 .4 .7 .0 .3 .1 -.1 .3 .2 .1 .0 .5 -.1 -1.8 -.4 -.3 .1 1.0 1.2 -.1 .4 .8 .3 1.1 -.2 -.5 -.1 .6 .5 .6 2.3 2.7 2.6 5.4 3.2 6.3 -2.9 2.0 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.0 -.4 1.9 -.5 3.7 5.8 3.7 -.9 -.1 1.2 2.5 3.3 2.2 2007 2008 -.4 .1 .7 -.5 -.1 .5 .0 .3 .6 .0 .3 -.4 .5 .1 1.5 3.2 3.6 .3 1.7 IP (2002=100) 1978 1979 1980 1981 53.5 57.6 58.1 57.0 53.7 57.9 58.1 56.7 54.7 58.1 57.9 57.0 55.8 57.5 56.8 56.7 56.0 57.9 55.3 57.1 56.4 57.9 54.7 57.4 56.4 57.8 54.3 57.8 56.6 57.4 54.5 57.8 56.7 57.5 55.3 57.5 57.2 57.8 56.0 57.0 57.6 57.7 57.0 56.4 58.0 57.8 57.3 55.8 54.0 57.9 58.0 56.9 56.1 57.8 55.6 57.1 56.6 57.6 54.7 57.7 57.6 57.8 56.8 56.4 56.1 57.8 56.3 57.0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 54.7 53.4 59.3 61.0 62.3 55.7 53.1 59.6 61.2 61.8 55.3 53.5 59.9 61.3 61.4 54.9 54.2 60.3 61.2 61.5 54.5 54.6 60.6 61.2 61.6 54.3 54.9 60.8 61.3 61.4 54.1 55.8 60.9 60.9 61.8 53.7 56.4 61.0 61.1 61.7 53.5 57.2 60.9 61.4 61.8 53.0 57.7 60.8 61.2 62.1 52.8 57.9 61.0 61.4 62.3 52.4 58.2 61.1 62.0 62.9 55.3 53.3 59.6 61.2 61.8 54.6 54.6 60.5 61.2 61.5 53.8 56.5 60.9 61.1 61.7 52.7 57.9 61.0 61.5 62.4 54.1 55.6 60.5 61.3 61.9 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 62.7 67.5 69.6 69.0 68.3 63.5 67.7 69.3 69.6 67.8 63.6 67.9 69.4 70.0 67.5 64.0 68.3 69.4 69.9 67.6 64.4 68.2 69.0 70.0 68.3 64.7 68.4 69.0 70.2 69.0 65.1 68.5 68.3 70.1 68.9 65.6 68.8 69.0 70.3 69.0 65.8 68.6 68.8 70.4 69.6 66.8 69.0 68.7 69.9 69.5 67.1 69.1 68.9 69.1 69.4 67.4 69.4 69.4 68.6 69.1 63.3 67.7 69.4 69.5 67.8 64.4 68.3 69.1 70.0 68.3 65.5 68.6 68.7 70.3 69.2 67.1 69.2 69.0 69.2 69.3 65.1 68.4 69.1 69.7 68.7 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 68.7 72.1 74.6 79.7 81.2 69.2 72.4 74.6 79.7 82.5 69.8 72.4 75.4 79.8 82.4 70.3 72.6 75.8 79.7 83.0 70.6 72.4 76.2 79.9 83.5 70.6 72.5 76.7 80.1 84.2 71.2 72.8 76.9 79.9 84.1 70.8 72.8 77.3 80.9 84.6 71.0 73.1 77.4 81.2 85.1 71.5 73.6 78.1 81.0 85.1 71.8 73.9 78.6 81.3 85.8 71.8 74.3 79.5 81.7 86.4 69.3 72.3 74.9 79.8 82.0 70.5 72.5 76.2 79.9 83.6 71.0 72.9 77.2 80.7 84.6 71.7 73.9 78.7 81.3 85.8 70.6 72.9 76.8 80.4 84.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 86.5 94.1 97.5 102.5 102.7 87.6 94.2 97.9 102.8 102.2 88.3 94.2 98.1 103.2 101.8 88.3 94.7 98.3 103.9 101.6 88.9 95.3 99.0 104.1 100.9 89.3 94.7 98.9 104.3 100.2 89.8 94.4 99.5 104.0 99.8 91.0 96.3 100.0 103.8 99.4 91.8 96.1 99.6 104.3 99.0 92.5 96.7 100.9 103.8 98.4 93.4 96.7 101.6 103.8 97.9 93.8 97.0 102.4 103.5 97.8 87.5 94.2 97.8 102.8 102.2 88.8 94.9 98.7 104.1 100.9 90.9 95.6 99.7 104.0 99.4 93.2 96.8 101.6 103.7 98.0 90.1 95.4 99.5 103.7 100.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 98.3 101.0 102.6 106.3 108.8 98.4 101.4 103.1 106.9 108.7 99.1 101.3 102.6 106.8 109.0 99.5 100.4 103.1 106.8 109.4 100.0 100.4 103.8 107.1 109.3 100.9 100.6 102.9 107.6 109.9 100.6 101.1 103.6 107.6 110.1 100.7 101.0 103.9 107.7 110.2 100.7 101.5 103.8 105.8 109.8 100.4 101.6 104.8 107.1 109.7 100.9 102.4 105.2 108.2 109.5 100.4 102.3 105.8 108.8 110.2 98.6 101.2 102.8 106.7 108.9 100.1 100.5 103.3 107.1 109.5 100.7 101.2 103.8 107.0 110.1 100.6 102.1 105.3 108.0 109.8 100.0 101.2 103.8 107.2 109.6 2007 2008 109.8 112.5 110.5 111.9 110.4 111.0 111.0 111.4 112.0 112.0 112.3 111.8 112.3 112.4 110.2 111.1 112.1 112.2 111.4 Year N OTE Estimates from October 2007 through February 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 18 Table 1B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Total Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1978 1979 1980 1981 65.0 67.1 68.8 70.7 65.2 67.3 69.0 70.9 65.4 67.4 69.1 71.0 65.6 67.6 69.3 71.2 65.7 67.7 69.4 71.4 65.9 67.8 69.6 71.5 66.1 68.0 69.7 71.7 66.3 68.1 69.9 71.9 66.5 68.3 70.1 72.0 66.6 68.4 70.2 72.2 66.8 68.6 70.4 72.4 66.9 68.7 70.5 72.5 65.2 67.3 69.0 70.9 65.7 67.7 69.4 71.4 66.3 68.1 69.9 71.9 66.8 68.6 70.4 72.4 66.0 67.9 69.7 71.6 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 72.7 74.0 74.5 76.2 78.2 72.8 74.0 74.6 76.4 78.3 73.0 74.1 74.7 76.6 78.4 73.1 74.1 74.8 76.8 78.4 73.3 74.1 74.9 77.0 78.5 73.4 74.1 75.0 77.2 78.6 73.5 74.2 75.2 77.3 78.7 73.6 74.2 75.4 77.5 78.8 73.7 74.2 75.5 77.6 78.9 73.8 74.3 75.7 77.8 79.0 73.9 74.3 75.9 77.9 79.1 73.9 74.4 76.0 78.0 79.2 72.8 74.0 74.6 76.4 78.3 73.3 74.1 74.9 77.0 78.5 73.6 74.2 75.4 77.5 78.8 73.9 74.3 75.9 77.9 79.1 73.4 74.2 75.2 77.2 78.7 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 79.3 81.0 81.9 83.7 85.6 79.5 81.1 82.0 83.9 85.7 79.6 81.2 82.1 84.1 85.8 79.8 81.2 82.2 84.2 86.0 79.9 81.3 82.4 84.4 86.1 80.1 81.3 82.5 84.6 86.2 80.3 81.4 82.7 84.7 86.3 80.4 81.4 82.9 84.9 86.4 80.6 81.5 83.0 85.0 86.5 80.7 81.6 83.2 85.2 86.6 80.8 81.7 83.4 85.3 86.7 80.9 81.8 83.5 85.5 86.9 79.5 81.1 82.0 83.9 85.7 79.9 81.3 82.4 84.4 86.1 80.4 81.4 82.9 84.9 86.4 80.8 81.7 83.4 85.3 86.7 80.2 81.4 82.7 84.6 86.2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 87.0 88.9 90.4 93.8 98.3 87.1 89.1 90.6 94.1 98.7 87.3 89.2 90.9 94.4 99.2 87.4 89.3 91.1 94.8 99.6 87.6 89.4 91.3 95.1 100.1 87.8 89.5 91.6 95.5 100.6 88.0 89.6 91.9 95.8 101.0 88.1 89.7 92.2 96.2 101.5 88.3 89.8 92.5 96.6 102.0 88.5 90.0 92.8 97.0 102.5 88.6 90.1 93.1 97.4 103.0 88.8 90.3 93.4 97.8 103.5 87.1 89.1 90.7 94.1 98.7 87.6 89.4 91.4 95.1 100.1 88.1 89.7 92.2 96.2 101.5 88.6 90.1 93.1 97.4 103.0 87.9 89.6 91.8 95.7 100.8 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 104.0 111.5 118.9 124.4 129.4 104.5 112.2 119.4 124.9 129.8 105.1 112.9 119.8 125.3 130.1 105.6 113.6 120.3 125.8 130.5 106.2 114.3 120.8 126.2 130.8 106.8 115.0 121.2 126.6 131.2 107.4 115.6 121.7 127.0 131.5 108.0 116.2 122.1 127.4 131.8 108.7 116.7 122.6 127.8 132.1 109.4 117.3 123.1 128.2 132.4 110.1 117.8 123.5 128.6 132.7 110.8 118.4 124.0 129.0 132.9 104.5 112.2 119.4 124.9 129.8 106.2 114.3 120.8 126.2 130.8 108.0 116.2 122.1 127.4 131.8 110.1 117.8 123.5 128.6 132.7 107.2 115.1 121.4 126.8 131.3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 133.2 133.6 133.0 133.2 134.6 133.4 133.5 133.0 133.3 134.7 133.6 133.4 133.0 133.3 134.9 133.7 133.3 133.0 133.4 135.0 133.8 133.2 133.0 133.5 135.2 133.9 133.1 133.0 133.6 135.3 133.9 133.1 133.1 133.7 135.4 134.0 133.0 133.1 133.8 135.6 133.9 133.0 133.1 134.0 135.7 133.9 133.0 133.1 134.1 135.9 133.8 132.9 133.1 134.3 136.0 133.7 132.9 133.2 134.4 136.2 133.4 133.5 133.0 133.3 134.7 133.8 133.2 133.0 133.5 135.2 133.9 133.0 133.1 133.9 135.6 133.8 132.9 133.2 134.3 136.1 133.7 133.2 133.1 133.7 135.4 2007 2008 136.4 139.0 136.6 139.1 136.8 137.0 137.2 137.4 137.6 137.9 138.1 138.3 138.5 138.7 136.6 137.2 137.9 138.5 137.5 Utilization (percent) 1978 1979 1980 1981 82.3 85.8 84.4 80.6 82.4 86.1 84.2 80.0 83.6 86.2 83.8 80.3 85.1 85.1 81.9 79.7 85.2 85.6 79.7 80.1 85.6 85.4 78.6 80.3 85.3 85.0 77.9 80.6 85.4 84.3 77.9 80.4 85.4 84.2 79.0 79.8 85.9 84.5 79.8 79.0 86.3 84.2 81.0 77.9 86.6 84.2 81.3 76.9 82.8 86.0 84.1 80.3 85.3 85.3 80.1 80.0 85.3 84.5 78.3 80.3 86.2 84.3 80.7 77.9 84.9 85.0 80.8 79.6 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 75.2 72.2 79.7 80.0 79.7 76.5 71.7 80.0 80.1 79.0 75.8 72.3 80.2 80.0 78.4 75.0 73.2 80.6 79.7 78.4 74.4 73.7 80.9 79.5 78.4 74.0 74.1 81.0 79.4 78.1 73.6 75.2 81.1 78.7 78.5 72.9 76.0 81.0 78.9 78.3 72.5 77.1 80.6 79.1 78.3 71.8 77.7 80.4 78.6 78.6 71.5 77.9 80.5 78.7 78.8 70.9 78.2 80.4 79.4 79.4 75.9 72.1 80.0 80.0 79.0 74.5 73.6 80.8 79.5 78.3 73.0 76.1 80.9 78.9 78.4 71.4 77.9 80.4 78.9 78.9 73.7 74.9 80.5 79.3 78.7 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 79.0 83.3 85.0 82.5 79.8 79.9 83.5 84.5 83.0 79.1 79.9 83.7 84.6 83.2 78.6 80.2 84.1 84.4 82.9 78.6 80.6 83.9 83.7 82.9 79.3 80.8 84.1 83.6 83.0 80.0 81.2 84.2 82.6 82.7 79.9 81.6 84.5 83.2 82.8 79.9 81.7 84.2 82.8 82.8 80.5 82.8 84.6 82.6 82.1 80.2 83.1 84.6 82.6 80.9 80.0 83.4 84.9 83.1 80.3 79.6 79.6 83.5 84.7 82.9 79.2 80.5 84.0 83.9 83.0 79.3 81.5 84.3 82.9 82.8 80.1 83.1 84.7 82.8 81.1 79.9 81.2 84.1 83.6 82.4 79.6 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 79.0 81.1 82.5 85.0 82.6 79.5 81.2 82.3 84.7 83.6 80.0 81.1 83.0 84.5 83.1 80.4 81.3 83.2 84.1 83.3 80.5 80.9 83.4 84.0 83.4 80.4 81.1 83.7 83.9 83.7 80.9 81.2 83.7 83.3 83.2 80.3 81.1 83.8 84.1 83.4 80.4 81.4 83.7 84.1 83.4 80.8 81.8 84.2 83.6 83.0 80.9 82.0 84.4 83.5 83.4 80.8 82.3 85.1 83.5 83.5 79.5 81.2 82.6 84.7 83.1 80.5 81.1 83.4 84.0 83.5 80.5 81.2 83.7 83.8 83.3 80.9 82.1 84.5 83.5 83.3 80.3 81.4 83.6 84.0 83.3 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 83.2 84.4 82.0 82.4 79.4 83.8 83.9 82.0 82.4 78.7 84.0 83.4 81.8 82.4 78.2 83.6 83.3 81.7 82.6 77.8 83.7 83.3 82.0 82.5 77.1 83.6 82.4 81.6 82.4 76.4 83.6 81.6 81.8 81.9 75.9 84.2 82.9 81.9 81.5 75.4 84.5 82.3 81.3 81.6 74.9 84.6 82.5 82.0 81.0 74.3 84.8 82.0 82.2 80.7 73.8 84.6 82.0 82.6 80.2 73.6 83.7 83.9 82.0 82.4 78.8 83.6 83.0 81.8 82.5 77.1 84.1 82.3 81.6 81.6 75.4 84.7 82.2 82.3 80.6 73.9 84.0 82.8 81.9 81.8 76.3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 73.8 75.6 77.2 79.8 80.9 73.8 75.9 77.6 80.2 80.7 74.2 75.9 77.1 80.1 80.8 74.4 75.3 77.5 80.0 81.1 74.7 75.4 78.0 80.2 80.9 75.4 75.6 77.4 80.5 81.2 75.1 75.9 77.9 80.4 81.3 75.2 75.9 78.1 80.5 81.3 75.2 76.3 78.0 79.0 80.9 75.0 76.4 78.7 79.8 80.8 75.4 77.0 79.0 80.6 80.5 75.1 77.0 79.4 80.9 80.9 73.9 75.8 77.3 80.0 80.8 74.8 75.4 77.6 80.3 81.0 75.2 76.1 78.0 80.0 81.2 75.2 76.8 79.1 80.4 80.7 74.8 76.0 78.0 80.2 80.9 2007 2008 80.5 81.0 80.9 80.4 80.7 81.0 80.9 81.0 81.4 81.2 81.3 80.8 81.1 81.0 80.7 81.0 81.3 81.0 81.0 N OTE Estimates from October 2007 through February 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 19 Table 2 R ATES O F C HANGE IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY: 2003–07 1 Item 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.7 2.1 .4 .1 -.6 -1.8 .4 1.5 1.4 3.4 4.7 18.5 2.9 -1.4 .5 1.1 2.6 -10.9 2.1 -3.8 -1.8 2.6 1.7 -.7 -2.9 2.5 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.3 -9.8 4.0 2.2 3.9 4.4 2.4 1.5 -1.9 11.0 1.6 5.6 2.7 3.0 3.9 -2.1 3.1 -.9 1.7 1.0 .2 -3.9 -5.3 11.5 -6.1 -2.8 1.5 2.1 .3 .3 7.7 -2.4 -.2 1.3 1.1 .9 3.6 14.1 -6.1 -1.4 1.2 .9 1.5 -1.9 .0 1.0 1.9 .3 .0 .0 -.1 -1.9 .6 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.2 .5 -.1 .0 -.1 -.4 .3 -11.8 -.6 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .7 .2 -1.0 .2 -.4 -.4 -.8 -.1 -5.7 -1.4 -.7 -.2 -.3 -.9 -1.9 2.2 -3.1 .1 -1.5 -.9 -1.4 -.7 -1.6 -1.4 -2.2 -.7 -.6 -1.9 -.4 3.9 -5.7 -.8 .1 .1 -.1 .8 -4.6 -.5 -.6 .1 .1 .2 1.4 .3 -.5 .0 1.9 -1.2 10.5 -1.9 2.9 5.2 7.2 6.3 4.0 3.1 10.3 15.9 14.6 5.9 6.9 7.8 9.1 12.8 4.4 -2.6 2.9 -2.5 8.4 1.8 4.6 .8 -1.6 3.5 .1 1.3 .0 1.3 -.9 .0 .6 -.9 -4.6 .9 -.8 3.1 -2.0 -7.8 2.6 -2.5 -4.9 -.4 -4.6 -.1 .9 5.2 .9 1.3 1.7 3.2 7.5 2.6 -3.5 -.3 -1.4 1.1 -.1 .4 .2 .2 -.5 -.7 -1.5 -2.7 -.3 .0 1.5 2.1 4.1 -1.4 12.0 .5 -1.2 -8.3 -5.5 2.3 .2 3.7 5.4 6.0 .0 11.1 4.9 4.3 -.9 3.8 8.6 -.5 .3 2.4 5.4 .5 11.3 2.9 -2.2 .5 -1.1 -5.8 -4.0 2.5 1.3 1.2 -5.8 9.4 -2.0 1.6 -12.2 1.6 4.9 5.2 3.2 3.4 5.4 -2.0 11.9 3.3 .4 -9.2 -1.3 1.8 2.8 .5 .7 1.1 .1 3.2 .0 -.1 -.7 -.3 -.2 .1 .3 .6 .7 -.2 1.7 .5 .6 2.5 -.1 .9 -.3 -.8 -1.1 -1.6 -1.2 -4.7 .2 -.2 .3 -1.0 .8 .1 -2.2 -3.2 -4.5 -2.6 -10.0 -1.2 -1.0 -4.9 -1.0 .1 -.1 .7 1.2 1.5 -.4 5.1 -.3 .8 .5 .7 1.0 -.5 321 327 331 332 333 334 1.7 2.0 3.4 4.6 1.3 4.5 -2.4 -2.0 17.9 3.7 3.8 4.0 1.4 4.4 8.1 1.9 5.1 10.2 3.7 3.9 6.9 11.6 5.3 -1.1 6.2 8.3 15.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 -13.3 -3.5 -4.2 3.2 2.5 12.2 2.2 2.4 3.8 -6.3 .9 4.3 3.3 -.5 13.1 .4 .4 .8 .1 -.6 .2 -.2 .0 4.3 .2 .3 .2 -.3 .5 .7 .3 .2 .0 -.7 -.6 -1.0 1.2 -.5 1.2 .1 .1 -3.2 -2.2 -2.1 -3.1 1.2 -1.6 -.7 -.6 -2.8 -6.1 .5 .6 .9 -.8 .8 -1.7 .8 1.1 3.6 335 3361–3 -.9 3.2 2.3 -1.4 1.8 -.3 -.5 -5.9 3.7 -2.1 .1 .1 .3 .3 -2.0 -.6 -2.8 -2.1 1.1 -.3 3364–9 337 339 -4.0 .2 .3 3.4 3.4 1.6 11.5 1.6 6.6 4.5 -1.6 2.7 11.1 -1.8 1.5 -.2 .1 .2 1.4 -.1 -.5 -3.6 .0 -2.1 -10.2 -.4 -2.0 3.6 1.2 -1.7 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 .2 2.5 -5.1 -10.6 -5.6 -2.7 .9 1.9 -.2 3.5 1.3 .5 -8.9 2.8 2.4 10.4 6.6 .9 .7 4.1 -.3 -1.3 -.7 .5 -3.7 -1.2 2.6 1.3 .3 -11.7 -.8 .3 1.9 2.2 5.0 -3.6 .9 2.2 -8.0 -2.0 -2.2 -1.3 -.4 1.3 4.3 -.1 .0 -.4 -.1 -.2 -.3 -.2 -.2 .0 .3 .1 1.2 .7 -.2 .6 .5 .5 .1 -.2 -1.1 -2.2 -1.7 -.6 -1.4 -.1 1.3 -.4 -1.0 -2.3 -4.0 -.7 .4 -3.3 -.4 1.3 -3.9 .3 .4 .0 1.3 .2 .9 -.4 .7 -.7 1133,5111 -2.8 2.0 -.5 -4.5 -1.4 .6 -.6 -1.2 -4.7 -.8 21 2211,2 2211 2212 1.0 .6 1.9 -6.2 -.9 1.8 2.3 -1.1 -4.9 2.0 3.5 -4.6 8.2 -.7 -1.2 1.5 .6 3.0 3.3 1.7 .3 .0 .1 -.2 -.2 .1 .1 .3 .6 -.1 .1 -1.2 .2 -1.0 -1.2 -.4 -.7 .2 -.1 2.0 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) 31–33 NOTE. Estimates for the fourth quarter of 2007 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. 20 Table 3 R ATES O F C HANGE IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL : 2003–07 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.7 2.1 .4 .1 -.6 -1.8 .4 .7 -1.8 4.7 21.3 1.0 -.1 1.3 3.9 4.5 8.4 2.3 -1.7 -1.8 1.7 .4 11.9 -2.6 -4.6 3.7 -.2 1.2 14.8 2.5 6.4 2.3 1.9 2.0 -.8 5.2 1.8 .1 -.1 .0 .1 .0 .3 -.2 .2 .0 .1 .2 -.5 .0 .1 -.1 .1 -.1 .3 -.3 -.8 -1.1 .1 .3 -.4 -.5 .0 -1.2 -.2 -1.1 -.1 3341 3342 1.7 23.8 9.9 17.4 3.5 9.4 1.6 .7 3.9 22.4 28.8 13.7 1.1 17.3 18.0 20.6 2.1 20.9 16.7 18.6 .4 6.7 5.1 3.5 .2 -1.0 -4.9 -5.5 -.7 -5.7 -1.5 .8 -2.2 -7.3 5.9 5.8 .6 4.0 -7.8 3.8 334412–9 34.0 17.3 24.0 15.4 24.2 9.5 3.6 -9.7 -19.4 9.7 .2 3.1 2.7 .0 .9 .0 .3 -.4 -1.9 .3 3.2 7.7 -1.9 -1.4 -2.7 -.8 -.3 -2.3 -.6 -5.9 -7.0 -4.3 -2.1 -2.5 .5 .1 .0 .2 .3 .3 .3 -.6 .2 -1.9 -2.1 -1.0 -4.1 -.3 -1.0 .6 -.1 1.1 -2.0 .7 -.9 -.5 3.6 2.3 5.2 1.7 2.2 5.0 3.0 3.1 7.3 7.5 2.4 .6 .6 1.0 5.8 -3.7 -1.6 .7 1.1 .3 3.1 -1.7 -.1 1.9 .0 .0 -.4 -.1 .1 -.1 .3 -.1 .8 .2 .2 .6 -.4 -.5 -1.6 -.4 -.7 -.2 -1.9 -.8 -4.4 -1.5 -2.6 -1.6 .4 .0 .8 -.5 .0 .6 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing 2 Durable .3 .2 .6 2.7 3.3 3.2 1.6 2.5 4.7 .9 .1 -.5 1.2 1.1 1.6 .0 .0 -.1 .2 .3 .4 -.4 -.4 -.5 -1.5 -1.9 -2.5 .2 .3 .5 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing 2 Durable 1.4 1.6 3.5 3.5 4.2 5.1 2.8 4.0 8.1 2.1 1.7 2.8 2.4 2.6 4.8 .4 .4 .9 .1 .2 .2 -.6 -.7 -1.1 -1.8 -2.2 -3.2 .4 .6 1.2 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing 2 .1 -.1 3.1 3.8 1.7 2.7 1.4 .6 1.4 1.4 .0 -.1 .2 .3 -.3 -.4 -1.5 -1.9 .3 .4 Measure of non-energy material inputs to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 3.7 .7 6.0 4.9 5.6 .1 2.8 .3 4.9 2.4 1.4 .0 .8 .5 -2.7 .1 -6.2 -1.0 2.5 .2 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished -.3 1.1 2.7 2.6 3.7 2.4 -6.6 3.3 5.4 7.2 -1.0 3.4 1.8 2.5 1.7 .1 .5 .3 -.4 .5 -.2 .7 -1.0 -.2 .3 -3.3 -.6 -.4 .7 .2 Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components 213111 Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 3361–3 3361 3363 NOTE. Estimates for the fourth quarter of 2007 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. 2. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing - that have traditionally been considered to be a part of manufacturing and are included in the industrial sector. 21 Table 4 A NNUAL R ATES OF C HANGE FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : 2003–07 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total IP 1.2 2.5 3.3 2.2 1.7 .2 .0 .1 -1.8 -.2 M ARKET G ROUPS Consumer goods Durable Nondurable 1.3 3.2 .5 1.3 1.1 1.4 2.8 .5 3.6 .3 -1.3 .8 1.7 -.3 2.3 .0 -.1 .0 -.1 -.3 .0 -.1 -.5 .1 -1.0 -1.2 -.9 -.1 -.8 .1 Business equipment Defense and space equipment -.3 6.3 5.2 -.8 7.3 10.5 10.4 -3.2 3.3 3.6 -.5 2.5 .9 -1.0 -.6 5.1 -1.3 -5.6 -1.6 3.7 Construction supplies Business supplies -.4 1.7 2.1 2.2 4.5 3.4 2.2 .6 -2.5 .6 -.2 .3 .2 .0 -.3 .0 -1.3 -2.4 -.6 -.7 Materials Non-energy Energy 1.3 1.8 .0 3.0 4.3 -.4 2.3 3.9 -1.2 2.2 2.5 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.6 .4 .6 .1 -.1 .0 -.2 .2 .4 .1 -2.4 -3.4 .0 .0 .2 -.5 1.3 1.5 2.7 .1 -2.9 2.9 3.1 4.1 1.9 .8 4.0 4.2 5.5 2.8 .7 2.4 2.8 4.6 .8 -4.3 1.7 1.8 2.6 .9 -1.5 .2 .2 .4 -.1 .1 .0 .1 .1 .0 -.1 .1 .2 .0 .4 -1.1 -2.2 -2.2 -3.0 -1.4 -3.0 -.2 -.1 -.2 .0 -2.1 .2 1.9 -.6 1.4 -1.3 2.1 3.1 -.6 .2 3.3 .3 .0 .0 .0 .4 .0 .4 -.8 -.6 .2 I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing2 Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities 1. The rates of change are calculated from annual averages of seasonally adjusted industrial production indexes, rather than between the fourth quarter of one year and the fourth quarter of the next. 2. See footnote 2 to table 3. Table 5 R ATES OF C HANGE IN C APACITY, BY I NDUSTRY G ROUPS : 2003–07 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -.6 .2 .8 1.3 1.8 .3 .0 -.2 -1.1 .0 Manufacturing 2 Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) -.6 -.3 .3 -1.0 -4.8 .2 .2 .5 -.1 -.6 1.4 1.5 2.6 .5 -.2 1.4 1.4 2.4 .3 1.1 2.0 2.0 3.3 .7 .6 .3 .3 .5 .2 -1.0 .1 .1 .0 .3 -.5 -.3 -.3 -.7 .2 -.8 -1.3 -1.4 -1.8 -.8 .1 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.1 -.2 Mining Utilities -1.4 3.6 -1.3 2.9 -1.1 .7 1.4 .8 1.7 1.2 .7 .5 -1.0 .3 .6 .7 .8 -1.2 1.3 -.3 4.2 5.5 13.1 10.3 21.4 2.8 1.2 -5.2 -9.3 1.9 -.7 -.2 .7 .8 .8 .1 .0 .1 -.6 -.2 -1.8 -.8 .3 -.7 .7 .4 -.8 .8 2.3 .9 1.2 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.7 .4 .6 .0 -.6 .3 -.1 .3 -.6 .3 .7 -1.8 -.5 1.0 -.1 -.3 Total industry Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing2 ex. selected high-technology industries S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. 2. See footnote 2 to table 3. 22 Table 6 R EVISED AND E ARLIER C APACITY U TILIZATION R ATES , BY I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Difference between revised and earlier rates (percentage points) Revised Rate 19722007 Ave. 2004 Q4 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2004 Q4 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 81.0 79.1 80.4 80.7 81.0 .0 -.2 -.8 -.5 31–33 79.7 79.5 77.5 77.1 79.2 78.9 79.0 78.9 79.2 79.2 -.1 -.1 -.3 -.4 -1.1 -.9 -.5 -.3 321 327 331 332 333 334 78.0 80.1 79.4 80.8 77.4 78.7 78.4 74.8 81.4 80.3 86.7 73.8 73.2 71.1 78.0 89.9 83.3 83.9 78.0 78.5 74.7 77.3 75.9 78.9 80.8 79.9 79.4 78.0 77.8 70.5 78.2 84.0 81.3 77.3 77.3 .0 .1 -.8 -.1 .2 -.2 -.6 -.2 1.4 -.5 .2 .1 -.2 -.4 -1.1 1.6 -.8 -1.4 -.3 -1.5 .7 -.3 .3 -.2 -2.6 .2 -.6 3.2 335 3361–3 83.2 77.5 79.9 79.2 83.2 78.3 82.1 72.3 83.4 72.4 .8 .3 -.2 -.3 -2.2 -2.4 -2.1 -3.7 3364–9 337 339 72.5 78.6 76.6 63.0 77.0 74.9 70.0 79.0 76.9 72.8 77.5 76.5 80.5 76.6 74.7 1.6 .5 -.1 -.2 .3 -1.4 -5.9 -.8 -2.3 -2.4 .6 -3.0 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 81.6 81.5 82.3 78.5 87.7 83.7 85.8 78.2 83.6 79.8 78.4 77.2 67.9 83.7 76.5 92.0 78.1 83.8 80.0 80.7 79.7 69.6 84.0 77.7 87.3 75.5 85.9 80.8 80.3 72.5 71.8 84.3 78.5 88.9 79.1 82.3 81.0 81.1 68.9 73.0 82.6 76.4 88.9 78.9 84.6 -.3 .3 1.6 .0 -.8 .6 -2.4 -.4 -1.2 -.6 -.7 -.1 -1.9 -1.0 -.3 -.6 -.1 -1.4 -.8 -1.9 -3.3 -2.3 -1.2 -1.9 -1.2 1.4 -2.5 -.5 -1.0 -2.8 -1.3 -1.4 -.7 -1.3 1.4 -2.2 1133,5111 84.6 85.7 85.4 80.7 79.1 .5 .2 -3.9 -4.3 21 2211,2 87.5 86.8 88.8 84.6 85.5 85.7 91.2 84.4 90.2 85.9 .4 .0 .4 -.8 -.1 -.6 -1.9 -.2 3341 3342 78.0 77.9 75.7 69.5 78.2 52.4 75.2 74.3 61.8 80.0 77.5 73.3 79.6 78.5 79.5 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 -1.3 -1.9 -2.0 .3 -.8 .0 1.7 -2.2 -2.4 334412–9 80.8 77.4 84.2 85.1 80.2 .6 1.0 2.4 5.2 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 81.2 79.8 79.7 78.1 80.7 79.5 80.7 79.0 81.0 79.2 .2 .0 -.2 -.3 -1.0 -1.4 -.9 -1.0 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.6 82.2 77.7 88.0 81.4 73.8 83.3 83.4 75.9 89.2 81.3 77.0 89.2 81.3 77.5 .1 .0 -.1 .4 -.1 -.6 .0 -1.0 -1.3 -1.1 -.5 -.7 Item Total industry 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components N OTE . Estimates for the fourth quarter of 2007 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 23 Table 7A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Manufacturing 1 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual2 IP (percent change) 1978 1979 1980 1981 -1.4 -.9 .4 -.4 .3 .5 -.1 -.6 1.6 .4 -.8 .4 1.6 -1.5 -2.1 .5 .3 1.2 -3.0 .6 .8 .2 -1.5 -.5 -.1 .1 -1.0 .2 .5 -1.3 .7 .1 .4 .2 1.6 -.5 .8 .4 1.8 -1.0 .9 -.3 1.9 -1.2 .8 .3 .3 -1.7 .4 1.9 1.2 .6 13.9 -.9 -18.7 3.2 4.2 -.9 -7.7 .1 8.8 .0 19.3 -10.1 6.0 3.1 -3.5 1.1 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 -2.4 2.4 1.8 -.3 1.1 2.7 -.1 1.1 -.3 -.6 -.8 1.0 .5 .7 -.3 -.7 1.2 .5 -.4 .4 -.2 1.3 .3 .1 .1 -.2 .8 .4 .2 -.3 -.1 1.5 .4 -.6 .6 -.8 .8 .2 .6 .2 -.3 1.9 -.2 .1 .2 -1.1 1.1 .4 -.3 .4 -.7 .3 .3 .6 .5 -.4 .3 .4 .4 .9 -9.2 9.1 12.6 .2 4.4 -2.0 12.4 6.2 .7 -.1 -3.8 15.3 3.5 .1 2.6 -8.4 12.4 2.6 2.2 5.0 -5.4 4.8 9.8 1.6 2.2 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 -.3 -.2 .7 -.1 -.8 1.4 .2 -1.0 1.4 -.6 .1 .3 -.1 .4 -.7 .5 .9 .1 -.3 .3 .8 -.1 -.8 .1 .7 .4 .1 .1 .2 1.1 .7 .1 -1.1 -.2 .2 .5 .1 .9 .3 .3 .6 .3 -.2 .0 1.0 1.6 .6 -.2 -.8 -.2 .6 .3 .2 -1.1 -.3 .6 .4 .2 -.7 -.1 6.0 2.5 1.7 4.7 -8.8 6.9 4.5 -3.2 2.6 2.1 7.1 1.4 -3.0 .7 7.1 11.7 4.9 .6 -6.6 1.4 5.7 5.4 .8 .8 -2.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.6 1.0 .2 .3 -.7 .9 .2 .1 -.1 1.7 1.0 -.1 1.3 .2 -.3 .6 .6 .8 -.2 1.0 .6 -.1 .7 .0 .6 .3 -.1 .3 .4 1.1 .8 .3 .5 -.6 .3 -.5 -.1 .7 1.2 .6 .1 .6 .3 .8 .6 .6 .8 1.0 -.2 -.1 .4 .4 .8 .1 .8 -.2 .5 1.2 .5 .9 .7 4.3 5.0 5.6 2.8 8.3 1.8 9.4 .3 8.7 3.9 1.3 6.1 3.1 7.5 2.7 6.7 9.9 4.1 5.9 3.6 3.5 5.9 5.2 4.8 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .1 .7 .3 .2 -.6 1.4 .0 .7 .3 -.6 1.2 -.2 -.1 .7 -.3 -.2 .7 .4 .6 -.2 .9 .5 .9 -.1 -.7 .7 -.7 -.3 .2 -.7 .5 -.5 .5 .0 -.4 1.7 2.5 .7 -.5 -.7 .9 -.3 -.4 .4 -.4 .7 .9 1.6 -.4 -.7 1.1 .2 .8 -.3 -.3 .5 .5 .7 -.6 .2 9.6 5.7 4.8 5.4 -6.3 7.5 2.6 4.2 4.8 -5.4 10.9 3.1 3.7 -.4 -6.4 11.6 7.5 9.6 -2.9 -5.1 8.5 6.7 5.0 4.5 -4.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .4 .5 .0 .7 .7 .1 .2 .6 .7 -.4 .7 .3 -.1 -.3 .0 .1 -1.0 .5 .0 .5 .7 .1 .7 .6 -.3 1.1 .6 -.7 .2 .4 -.4 .2 .8 .0 .1 .3 -.3 .7 .3 .3 .0 .7 -.2 -1.0 -.2 -.5 .1 1.0 1.5 -.5 .4 1.0 .1 .8 -.1 -.5 -.2 .5 -.1 1.0 2.8 2.0 2.1 5.8 2.7 5.7 -1.9 3.3 2.2 1.4 3.1 2.6 3.9 1.0 1.6 -1.1 4.1 5.4 6.0 -1.1 -.1 1.3 2.9 4.0 2.4 2007 2008 -.6 .0 .1 -.3 .7 .4 .2 .5 .8 -.4 .4 -.5 .2 .1 1.1 4.7 4.0 -.8 1.7 IP (2002=100) 1978 1979 1980 1981 49.9 53.6 53.9 52.5 50.1 53.9 53.9 52.2 50.9 54.1 53.5 52.4 51.7 53.3 52.4 52.7 51.9 53.9 50.8 53.0 52.3 54.0 50.0 52.7 52.2 54.0 49.6 52.9 52.5 53.3 49.9 52.9 52.7 53.5 50.7 52.7 53.1 53.7 51.6 52.1 53.6 53.5 52.6 51.5 54.1 53.7 52.7 50.7 50.3 53.9 53.8 52.4 52.0 53.7 51.1 52.8 52.5 53.6 50.1 52.8 53.6 53.6 52.3 51.4 52.1 53.7 51.8 52.4 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 49.5 49.3 55.5 57.7 59.1 50.8 49.3 56.1 57.5 58.7 50.4 49.8 56.4 58.0 58.6 50.1 50.4 56.7 57.7 58.8 50.0 51.0 56.8 57.8 58.9 49.8 51.4 57.1 57.9 58.7 49.8 52.2 57.3 57.6 59.0 49.4 52.6 57.4 57.9 59.2 49.2 53.6 57.3 58.0 59.3 48.7 54.2 57.5 57.8 59.5 48.4 54.4 57.7 58.2 59.8 48.2 54.5 57.9 58.5 60.3 50.2 49.5 56.0 57.7 58.8 50.0 50.9 56.8 57.8 58.8 49.5 52.8 57.3 57.8 59.2 48.4 54.4 57.7 58.2 59.9 49.5 51.9 57.0 57.9 59.2 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 60.2 64.9 67.5 66.2 65.2 61.0 65.0 66.9 67.1 64.8 61.1 65.2 66.8 67.3 64.3 61.4 65.8 66.8 67.2 64.5 61.9 65.7 66.3 67.3 65.0 62.1 65.8 66.4 67.4 65.7 62.5 65.9 65.7 67.3 65.9 62.8 65.9 66.3 67.5 66.1 63.2 66.1 66.1 67.5 66.7 64.2 66.5 66.0 66.9 66.6 64.6 66.7 66.1 66.2 66.4 65.0 67.0 66.2 65.7 66.4 60.8 65.0 67.1 66.9 64.8 61.8 65.8 66.5 67.3 65.1 62.9 66.0 66.0 67.4 66.2 64.6 66.8 66.1 66.3 66.5 62.5 65.9 66.4 67.0 65.6 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 66.0 69.7 72.0 77.9 79.1 66.6 69.8 72.0 77.8 80.5 67.2 69.7 73.0 78.0 80.2 67.6 70.1 73.6 77.9 81.0 68.0 70.1 74.1 77.9 81.5 68.2 70.0 74.3 78.2 82.4 68.8 70.2 74.6 77.7 82.6 68.4 70.1 75.2 78.7 83.1 68.5 70.5 75.4 79.3 83.6 68.9 71.1 76.1 79.2 83.6 69.2 71.4 76.8 79.3 84.3 69.0 71.8 77.7 79.7 85.0 66.6 69.8 72.3 77.9 79.9 67.9 70.1 74.0 78.0 81.6 68.6 70.3 75.1 78.6 83.1 69.0 71.4 76.9 79.4 84.3 68.0 70.4 74.5 78.5 82.2 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 85.1 94.0 97.7 103.3 102.9 86.3 93.9 98.4 103.6 102.3 87.3 93.8 98.3 104.3 101.9 87.1 94.4 98.6 104.9 101.7 87.9 94.9 99.5 104.8 100.9 88.4 94.2 99.2 105.1 100.2 88.8 93.8 99.7 105.0 99.9 90.3 96.1 100.4 104.5 99.2 91.1 95.8 100.0 104.9 98.8 91.8 96.7 101.6 104.5 98.1 92.8 96.8 102.4 104.1 97.8 93.3 97.3 103.1 103.5 98.0 86.2 93.9 98.1 103.7 102.3 87.8 94.5 99.1 104.9 100.9 90.1 95.2 100.0 104.8 99.3 92.6 97.0 102.4 104.0 98.0 89.2 95.1 99.9 104.4 100.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 98.4 100.8 102.4 107.1 110.9 98.4 101.0 103.0 107.8 110.5 99.1 101.3 102.9 107.5 110.5 99.2 100.3 103.4 107.6 111.1 99.9 100.4 104.1 108.2 110.8 101.0 101.0 103.3 108.4 111.2 100.6 101.2 104.2 108.4 111.3 100.9 100.9 104.9 108.8 111.7 100.9 101.6 104.7 107.7 111.5 100.4 101.7 105.7 109.4 110.9 100.8 102.7 105.8 110.2 110.8 100.3 102.4 106.4 110.1 111.8 98.7 101.0 102.8 107.5 110.6 100.0 100.6 103.6 108.1 111.0 100.8 101.2 104.6 108.3 111.5 100.5 102.2 106.0 109.9 111.2 100.0 101.3 104.2 108.4 111.1 2007 2008 111.1 113.8 111.3 113.5 112.0 112.4 112.6 113.2 114.1 113.6 114.0 113.4 113.7 113.8 111.5 112.8 113.9 113.6 112.9 Year N OTE Estimates from October 2007 through February 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 24 Table 7B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing 1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1978 1979 1980 1981 60.8 62.9 64.9 67.0 61.0 63.1 65.0 67.2 61.1 63.3 65.2 67.4 61.3 63.4 65.4 67.6 61.5 63.6 65.5 67.8 61.7 63.8 65.7 68.0 61.9 63.9 65.9 68.1 62.0 64.1 66.1 68.3 62.2 64.2 66.3 68.5 62.4 64.4 66.5 68.6 62.6 64.6 66.6 68.8 62.7 64.7 66.8 68.9 61.0 63.1 65.0 67.2 61.5 63.6 65.5 67.8 62.0 64.1 66.1 68.3 62.6 64.6 66.6 68.8 61.8 63.8 65.8 68.0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 69.1 70.4 70.9 72.9 75.0 69.2 70.5 71.0 73.1 75.1 69.4 70.5 71.1 73.3 75.1 69.5 70.5 71.2 73.5 75.2 69.7 70.5 71.4 73.7 75.3 69.8 70.6 71.5 73.9 75.4 69.9 70.6 71.7 74.1 75.5 70.0 70.6 71.9 74.3 75.6 70.1 70.7 72.1 74.5 75.7 70.2 70.7 72.3 74.6 75.8 70.3 70.8 72.5 74.7 75.9 70.4 70.8 72.7 74.9 76.1 69.2 70.5 71.0 73.1 75.0 69.7 70.5 71.4 73.7 75.3 70.0 70.6 71.9 74.3 75.6 70.3 70.8 72.5 74.7 75.9 69.8 70.6 71.7 74.0 75.5 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 76.2 78.2 79.0 81.1 83.1 76.4 78.2 79.2 81.3 83.3 76.6 78.3 79.3 81.5 83.4 76.8 78.4 79.5 81.7 83.5 77.0 78.4 79.6 81.8 83.6 77.2 78.5 79.8 82.0 83.8 77.4 78.5 80.0 82.2 83.9 77.5 78.6 80.2 82.3 84.0 77.7 78.6 80.4 82.5 84.1 77.8 78.7 80.6 82.7 84.2 78.0 78.8 80.7 82.8 84.3 78.1 78.9 80.9 83.0 84.5 76.4 78.2 79.2 81.3 83.3 77.0 78.4 79.6 81.8 83.6 77.5 78.6 80.2 82.3 84.0 78.0 78.8 80.7 82.8 84.3 77.2 78.5 79.9 82.1 83.8 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 84.6 86.9 88.6 92.2 97.2 84.8 87.0 88.8 92.5 97.7 84.9 87.1 89.0 92.9 98.2 85.1 87.3 89.3 93.3 98.8 85.3 87.4 89.5 93.7 99.3 85.5 87.5 89.8 94.1 99.9 85.7 87.6 90.1 94.5 100.4 85.9 87.8 90.5 94.9 100.9 86.1 87.9 90.8 95.3 101.5 86.3 88.0 91.1 95.8 102.0 86.5 88.2 91.5 96.2 102.6 86.7 88.4 91.8 96.7 103.1 84.8 87.0 88.8 92.5 97.7 85.3 87.4 89.6 93.7 99.3 85.9 87.8 90.5 94.9 100.9 86.5 88.2 91.5 96.2 102.6 85.6 87.6 90.1 94.3 100.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 103.7 112.3 120.7 127.3 133.5 104.3 113.1 121.3 127.9 133.9 104.9 113.9 121.8 128.4 134.3 105.6 114.7 122.4 129.0 134.7 106.2 115.5 122.9 129.5 135.1 106.9 116.2 123.5 130.1 135.4 107.6 116.9 124.0 130.6 135.7 108.3 117.6 124.5 131.1 136.0 109.1 118.3 125.1 131.6 136.3 109.8 118.9 125.6 132.1 136.5 110.6 119.5 126.2 132.6 136.7 111.4 120.1 126.8 133.0 136.9 104.3 113.1 121.3 127.9 133.9 106.2 115.4 122.9 129.5 135.1 108.3 117.6 124.5 131.1 136.0 110.6 119.5 126.2 132.6 136.7 107.4 116.4 123.7 130.3 135.4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 137.1 137.3 136.5 137.0 139.1 137.2 137.2 136.5 137.2 139.3 137.3 137.1 136.5 137.3 139.4 137.4 137.1 136.5 137.5 139.6 137.4 137.0 136.5 137.6 139.7 137.5 136.9 136.5 137.8 139.9 137.5 136.8 136.6 138.0 140.0 137.5 136.8 136.6 138.2 140.2 137.5 136.7 136.7 138.4 140.3 137.5 136.6 136.7 138.6 140.5 137.4 136.6 136.8 138.8 140.7 137.4 136.6 136.9 138.9 140.8 137.2 137.2 136.5 137.2 139.3 137.4 137.0 136.5 137.6 139.7 137.5 136.8 136.6 138.2 140.2 137.4 136.6 136.8 138.8 140.7 137.4 136.9 136.6 137.9 140.0 2007 2008 141.0 143.9 141.2 144.1 141.4 141.7 141.9 142.1 142.4 142.7 142.9 143.2 143.4 143.7 141.2 141.9 142.7 143.4 142.3 Utilization (percent) 1978 1979 1980 1981 82.1 85.2 83.1 78.4 82.1 85.4 82.9 77.7 83.2 85.5 82.0 77.8 84.3 84.0 80.1 77.9 84.3 84.8 77.5 78.2 84.8 84.7 76.1 77.6 84.5 84.6 75.2 77.6 84.6 83.2 75.5 77.5 84.8 83.2 76.5 76.9 85.2 83.3 77.7 76.0 85.7 82.9 78.9 74.9 86.2 83.0 78.9 73.5 82.5 85.4 82.7 77.9 84.5 84.5 77.9 77.9 84.6 83.7 75.7 77.3 85.7 83.1 78.5 74.8 84.3 84.2 78.7 77.0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 71.6 70.1 78.3 79.1 78.8 73.3 70.0 79.0 78.7 78.2 72.6 70.6 79.3 79.0 77.9 72.0 71.4 79.5 78.5 78.2 71.7 72.3 79.6 78.4 78.2 71.4 72.9 79.8 78.3 77.9 71.2 73.9 79.9 77.7 78.2 70.5 74.5 79.9 78.0 78.3 70.2 75.8 79.5 77.9 78.4 69.3 76.6 79.6 77.5 78.5 68.8 76.8 79.6 77.9 78.8 68.5 77.0 79.7 78.1 79.3 72.5 70.2 78.9 78.9 78.3 71.7 72.2 79.6 78.4 78.1 70.7 74.7 79.8 77.9 78.3 68.9 76.8 79.6 77.8 78.9 70.9 73.5 79.5 78.3 78.4 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 78.9 83.0 85.4 81.6 78.4 79.9 83.1 84.5 82.5 77.8 79.7 83.3 84.2 82.6 77.1 80.0 83.9 84.1 82.3 77.3 80.4 83.8 83.2 82.2 77.7 80.5 83.8 83.2 82.2 78.5 80.8 83.9 82.1 81.9 78.5 81.1 83.9 82.6 81.9 78.6 81.4 84.1 82.2 81.8 79.3 82.5 84.5 81.9 81.0 79.1 82.9 84.7 81.9 79.9 78.7 83.3 84.9 81.8 79.2 78.6 79.5 83.1 84.7 82.2 77.8 80.3 83.8 83.5 82.2 77.8 81.1 84.0 82.3 81.9 78.8 82.9 84.7 81.9 80.0 78.8 80.9 83.9 83.1 81.6 78.3 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 78.0 80.3 81.2 84.5 81.4 78.5 80.3 81.1 84.1 82.3 79.1 80.0 82.0 83.9 81.6 79.4 80.4 82.4 83.5 82.0 79.7 80.2 82.7 83.2 82.0 79.8 80.0 82.7 83.1 82.5 80.2 80.1 82.8 82.3 82.3 79.7 79.9 83.1 82.9 82.3 79.5 80.3 83.1 83.2 82.4 79.8 80.8 83.6 82.7 81.9 79.9 81.0 83.9 82.4 82.2 79.6 81.2 84.6 82.4 82.4 78.5 80.2 81.4 84.2 81.8 79.6 80.2 82.6 83.3 82.2 79.8 80.1 83.0 82.8 82.3 79.8 81.0 84.0 82.5 82.2 79.4 80.4 82.8 83.2 82.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 82.0 83.7 80.9 81.1 77.0 82.7 83.1 81.1 81.0 76.4 83.2 82.4 80.7 81.2 75.9 82.5 82.3 80.6 81.3 75.5 82.7 82.2 81.0 80.9 74.7 82.8 81.1 80.4 80.8 74.0 82.6 80.2 80.4 80.4 73.6 83.4 81.7 80.6 79.7 72.9 83.6 81.0 80.0 79.7 72.5 83.5 81.3 80.9 79.1 71.9 83.9 81.0 81.1 78.5 71.5 83.7 81.1 81.3 77.8 71.6 82.7 83.1 80.9 81.1 76.4 82.7 81.9 80.7 81.0 74.7 83.2 81.0 80.3 79.9 73.0 83.7 81.1 81.1 78.5 71.7 83.1 81.8 80.7 80.1 73.9 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 71.8 73.4 75.0 78.1 79.7 71.8 73.6 75.5 78.6 79.3 72.2 73.8 75.4 78.3 79.2 72.2 73.2 75.8 78.3 79.6 72.7 73.3 76.3 78.6 79.3 73.5 73.8 75.7 78.7 79.5 73.1 73.9 76.3 78.6 79.5 73.4 73.8 76.8 78.7 79.7 73.4 74.3 76.6 77.8 79.4 73.1 74.4 77.3 78.9 78.9 73.4 75.1 77.4 79.4 78.7 73.0 75.0 77.7 79.3 79.4 71.9 73.6 75.3 78.4 79.4 72.8 73.4 75.9 78.5 79.4 73.3 74.0 76.6 78.4 79.5 73.2 74.8 77.5 79.2 79.0 72.8 74.0 76.3 78.6 79.4 2007 2008 78.8 79.1 78.8 78.7 79.2 79.4 79.4 79.6 80.1 79.6 79.8 79.2 79.3 79.2 78.9 79.5 79.8 79.2 79.4 N OTE Estimates from October 2007 through February 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 25 Table 8A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries1 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual2 IP (percent change) 1978 1979 1980 1981 -1.4 -.8 .4 -.7 .4 .5 .0 -.6 1.7 .2 -.4 .5 2.1 -1.1 -2.2 -.6 .3 .7 -2.6 .7 .7 -.1 -1.3 .5 -.2 -.3 -.7 .6 .3 -.8 .2 -.1 .2 .0 1.7 -.7 .8 .5 1.2 -.9 .6 -.2 1.7 -1.1 .6 .0 .5 -1.2 -2.0 .9 .7 .0 16.3 -1.4 -17.0 .6 2.7 -2.7 -6.9 3.6 6.6 .3 15.9 -9.7 4.7 2.1 -3.6 .6 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 -2.0 1.9 2.0 -.3 .5 1.8 -.7 .3 .5 -.8 -.7 .8 .4 .1 -.7 -.9 1.2 .5 -.1 .1 -.7 .7 .4 .1 .1 -.5 .5 .2 .0 -.2 -.5 1.4 .2 -.5 .4 -.8 1.2 .0 .4 -.3 -.5 1.3 -.2 .5 .1 -.9 .7 -.2 -.4 .4 -.5 .2 .3 .3 .4 -.9 .5 .1 1.1 .8 -8.6 3.7 11.4 1.0 2.3 -5.8 8.5 5.1 .9 -2.6 -6.5 13.7 1.6 -.2 .6 -8.2 9.6 -.4 2.5 4.0 -6.0 1.8 7.9 1.0 .9 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 -.5 .0 .3 -.7 -.5 1.2 .4 -.5 .9 -.8 .2 .2 .3 .4 -.6 .5 .5 -.1 -.2 .2 .6 -.2 -.7 .1 .9 .4 .2 .0 .2 1.0 .5 .1 -1.1 -.2 .0 .6 .5 .9 .2 .1 .2 -.4 -.3 .1 .9 1.4 .5 -.2 -.8 -.2 .5 .2 .2 -1.3 -.2 .4 .4 .7 -.7 -.5 4.4 3.0 1.8 2.4 -8.0 6.4 2.8 -2.0 2.2 2.1 6.0 1.4 -3.3 1.0 5.4 9.2 2.9 1.0 -6.6 .3 4.3 4.4 .6 .3 -2.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.8 .5 .4 .2 -1.0 .7 .3 -.1 -.2 1.4 .8 -.1 .9 -.2 -.4 .6 .3 .3 -.3 .7 .3 -.4 .4 .1 .5 -.1 .2 .6 .1 .7 .8 .3 .1 -.5 -.5 -.6 -.1 .3 1.1 .4 .1 .3 .0 .1 .4 .6 .6 .6 -.5 -.3 .3 .3 .4 .1 .8 .0 .5 .9 .2 .5 -1.8 3.0 4.3 3.1 -.2 6.2 .5 5.5 -1.4 6.1 1.7 1.5 3.3 1.4 2.2 2.8 5.1 5.5 .3 3.3 1.9 2.5 4.0 2.5 1.7 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 -.1 .2 .2 -.3 -.7 .9 -.1 .1 .0 -.5 .5 -.1 -.1 .1 -.3 -.4 .3 -.1 .4 -.1 .3 .5 .6 -.1 -.6 .2 -.9 -.5 .0 -.5 .3 -.8 .3 -.5 -.3 1.0 2.0 .4 -.4 -.3 .7 -.6 -.5 .4 -.5 .7 .5 1.2 -.5 -.6 .7 -.3 .3 -.2 -.5 .2 .0 .6 -.5 -.1 5.0 1.6 .8 .7 -6.2 2.2 1.0 .4 1.7 -4.3 6.0 -.4 1.0 -2.8 -4.6 8.2 2.1 5.6 -2.8 -5.3 4.2 3.1 1.2 1.1 -4.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .7 .6 .2 .4 .0 .0 .2 .5 .5 -.2 .7 -.3 -.6 -.1 .2 .3 -1.0 .6 -.1 .3 .4 -.1 .7 .3 -.2 .9 .1 -.9 .4 .4 -.3 .3 .7 -.2 .2 .0 -.1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .5 -.2 -2.1 -.5 -.3 .0 1.0 1.1 -.1 .3 .7 .3 1.0 -.2 -.6 -.1 .6 .5 .6 2.7 1.3 1.7 4.8 2.6 5.8 -4.4 2.1 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 -1.8 1.1 -1.1 3.0 5.4 2.2 -1.7 .0 .2 1.8 2.7 1.3 2007 2008 -.4 .1 .7 -.7 -.2 .4 -.1 .2 .4 -.1 .2 -.6 .4 .0 1.4 2.2 2.2 -.8 .9 IP (2002=100) 1978 1979 1980 1981 71.5 76.4 76.3 74.2 71.8 76.8 76.2 73.8 73.0 77.0 75.9 74.2 74.6 76.1 74.3 73.7 74.8 76.7 72.3 74.2 75.3 76.6 71.4 74.6 75.2 76.4 70.9 75.1 75.4 75.7 71.0 75.0 75.5 75.7 72.2 74.4 76.1 76.1 73.1 73.8 76.6 75.9 74.4 73.0 77.0 76.0 74.7 72.1 72.1 76.7 76.1 74.1 74.9 76.5 72.7 74.2 75.4 76.0 71.4 74.8 76.6 76.0 74.1 72.9 74.7 76.3 73.6 74.0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 70.7 68.4 75.3 76.7 78.6 71.9 67.9 75.6 77.1 78.0 71.4 68.4 75.9 77.2 77.5 70.7 69.2 76.3 77.1 77.5 70.2 69.7 76.6 77.2 77.6 69.9 70.0 76.8 77.2 77.5 69.6 71.0 76.9 76.8 77.8 69.0 71.9 76.9 77.1 77.6 68.7 72.8 76.7 77.5 77.7 68.1 73.4 76.6 77.2 78.0 67.7 73.5 76.8 77.4 78.3 67.1 73.9 76.9 78.2 79.0 71.3 68.2 75.6 77.0 78.1 70.3 69.7 76.6 77.2 77.5 69.1 71.9 76.9 77.1 77.7 67.6 73.6 76.8 77.6 78.4 69.6 70.9 76.5 77.2 77.9 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 78.6 83.8 86.1 84.9 83.6 79.5 84.2 85.7 85.6 82.9 79.7 84.3 86.0 86.0 82.4 80.1 84.7 85.9 85.8 82.6 80.6 84.6 85.3 86.0 83.4 80.9 84.7 85.3 86.2 84.2 81.3 84.8 84.4 86.0 84.2 81.8 85.2 85.2 86.2 84.3 81.9 84.9 84.9 86.3 85.0 83.1 85.3 84.7 85.7 84.9 83.5 85.5 84.9 84.6 84.7 83.8 85.9 85.5 84.0 84.2 79.3 84.1 86.0 85.5 83.0 80.5 84.7 85.5 86.0 83.4 81.7 85.0 84.8 86.2 84.5 83.5 85.6 85.0 84.7 84.6 81.2 84.8 85.3 85.6 83.9 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 83.6 86.9 89.3 93.6 92.7 84.2 87.2 89.2 93.4 94.0 84.8 87.1 90.0 93.2 93.6 85.3 87.4 90.3 93.0 94.3 85.6 87.0 90.7 93.1 94.7 85.5 87.2 91.2 93.2 95.4 86.1 87.4 91.3 92.7 94.9 85.6 87.4 91.6 93.7 95.3 85.7 87.7 91.6 93.8 95.7 86.3 88.3 92.1 93.4 95.4 86.5 88.6 92.5 93.4 96.2 86.5 89.0 93.4 93.6 96.7 84.2 87.1 89.5 93.4 93.4 85.5 87.2 90.7 93.1 94.8 85.8 87.5 91.5 93.4 95.3 86.4 88.6 92.7 93.5 96.1 85.5 87.6 91.1 93.3 94.9 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 96.5 101.7 102.5 104.4 102.3 97.4 101.6 102.6 104.4 101.7 97.9 101.5 102.5 104.5 101.4 97.5 101.8 102.4 105.0 101.3 97.8 102.4 103.0 104.9 100.7 98.0 101.5 102.5 104.9 100.1 98.3 100.7 102.8 104.3 99.9 99.3 102.7 103.2 103.9 99.6 100.0 102.0 102.7 104.3 99.1 100.7 102.5 103.9 103.7 98.5 101.4 102.2 104.2 103.6 98.1 101.6 102.2 104.8 103.0 97.9 97.3 101.6 102.5 104.5 101.8 97.8 101.9 102.6 104.9 100.7 99.2 101.8 102.9 104.2 99.5 101.2 102.3 104.3 103.5 98.2 98.9 101.9 103.1 104.3 100.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 98.6 100.6 100.9 104.3 105.8 98.6 100.8 101.4 104.8 105.6 99.3 100.5 100.8 104.7 105.8 99.6 99.6 101.4 104.6 106.2 100.1 99.5 102.1 104.9 106.0 100.9 99.5 101.3 105.3 106.4 100.6 99.8 102.0 105.2 106.6 100.6 99.7 102.2 105.2 106.6 100.6 100.2 102.0 103.0 106.1 100.3 100.2 103.0 104.2 106.0 100.7 100.9 103.3 105.2 105.7 100.0 100.8 103.9 105.8 106.3 98.8 100.7 101.1 104.6 105.7 100.2 99.5 101.6 104.9 106.2 100.6 99.9 102.0 104.5 106.5 100.3 100.6 103.4 105.0 106.0 100.0 100.2 102.0 104.8 106.1 2007 2008 106.0 107.6 106.7 106.9 106.5 106.9 106.9 107.1 107.5 107.4 107.6 107.0 107.5 107.5 106.4 107.0 107.5 107.3 107.1 Year N OTE Estimates from October 2007 through February 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 26 Table 8B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1978 1979 1980 1981 86.7 88.9 90.6 92.4 86.9 89.1 90.7 92.5 87.1 89.2 90.9 92.7 87.3 89.3 91.0 92.8 87.5 89.5 91.2 93.0 87.7 89.6 91.3 93.1 87.9 89.8 91.4 93.3 88.1 89.9 91.6 93.4 88.3 90.0 91.7 93.6 88.4 90.2 91.9 93.7 88.6 90.3 92.0 93.9 88.7 90.5 92.2 94.0 86.9 89.1 90.7 92.5 87.5 89.5 91.2 93.0 88.1 89.9 91.6 93.4 88.6 90.3 92.0 93.9 87.8 89.7 91.4 93.2 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 94.2 95.0 94.9 96.2 98.1 94.3 95.0 94.9 96.4 98.2 94.4 95.0 95.0 96.6 98.3 94.5 94.9 95.1 96.7 98.4 94.6 94.9 95.2 96.9 98.5 94.7 94.9 95.3 97.1 98.6 94.8 94.9 95.4 97.3 98.7 94.9 94.8 95.5 97.4 98.8 94.9 94.8 95.6 97.6 98.9 95.0 94.8 95.8 97.7 98.9 95.0 94.8 95.9 97.9 99.0 95.0 94.9 96.1 98.0 99.1 94.3 95.0 94.9 96.4 98.2 94.6 94.9 95.2 96.9 98.5 94.9 94.8 95.5 97.4 98.8 95.0 94.8 95.9 97.9 99.0 94.7 94.9 95.4 97.1 98.6 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 99.2 100.3 100.9 102.7 104.4 99.3 100.4 101.1 102.8 104.6 99.5 100.4 101.2 103.0 104.7 99.6 100.4 101.3 103.1 104.9 99.7 100.5 101.4 103.3 105.0 99.8 100.5 101.6 103.4 105.1 99.9 100.5 101.7 103.6 105.3 100.0 100.6 101.9 103.7 105.4 100.1 100.6 102.0 103.9 105.5 100.1 100.7 102.2 104.0 105.6 100.2 100.8 102.4 104.2 105.7 100.3 100.8 102.5 104.3 105.8 99.3 100.4 101.1 102.8 104.6 99.7 100.5 101.4 103.3 105.0 100.0 100.6 101.9 103.7 105.4 100.2 100.8 102.4 104.2 105.7 99.8 100.5 101.7 103.5 105.2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 105.9 107.0 108.1 110.0 112.5 106.0 107.1 108.2 110.2 112.8 106.1 107.2 108.3 110.4 113.0 106.2 107.2 108.5 110.6 113.2 106.3 107.3 108.6 110.8 113.4 106.4 107.4 108.8 111.1 113.7 106.5 107.5 108.9 111.3 113.9 106.6 107.6 109.1 111.5 114.1 106.6 107.7 109.3 111.7 114.4 106.7 107.8 109.4 111.9 114.7 106.8 107.9 109.6 112.1 115.0 106.9 108.0 109.8 112.3 115.3 106.0 107.1 108.2 110.2 112.8 106.3 107.3 108.6 110.8 113.4 106.6 107.6 109.1 111.5 114.2 106.8 107.9 109.6 112.1 115.0 106.4 107.5 108.9 111.2 113.8 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 115.6 120.4 124.7 127.5 129.4 115.9 120.9 125.0 127.7 129.5 116.3 121.3 125.3 127.9 129.7 116.7 121.7 125.6 128.1 129.8 117.1 122.1 125.8 128.2 130.0 117.5 122.4 126.1 128.4 130.1 117.9 122.8 126.3 128.5 130.2 118.3 123.2 126.5 128.7 130.4 118.7 123.5 126.7 128.8 130.5 119.2 123.8 127.0 129.0 130.6 119.6 124.1 127.2 129.1 130.8 120.0 124.4 127.3 129.2 130.9 115.9 120.9 125.0 127.7 129.5 117.1 122.1 125.8 128.2 130.0 118.3 123.2 126.5 128.7 130.4 119.6 124.1 127.2 129.1 130.8 117.7 122.5 126.1 128.4 130.2 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 131.0 130.6 129.9 129.7 130.3 131.1 130.5 130.0 129.7 130.4 131.1 130.4 130.0 129.7 130.5 131.2 130.3 130.0 129.7 130.6 131.2 130.2 129.9 129.7 130.7 131.2 130.1 129.9 129.8 130.8 131.2 130.1 129.9 129.8 130.9 131.1 130.0 129.9 129.9 131.0 131.1 130.0 129.9 129.9 131.1 131.0 130.0 129.8 130.0 131.2 130.9 130.0 129.8 130.1 131.3 130.8 129.9 129.8 130.2 131.4 131.1 130.5 130.0 129.7 130.4 131.2 130.2 129.9 129.7 130.7 131.1 130.0 129.9 129.9 131.0 130.9 130.0 129.8 130.1 131.3 131.1 130.2 129.9 129.9 130.9 2007 2008 131.5 132.7 131.5 132.8 131.6 131.7 131.8 131.9 132.0 132.1 132.2 132.3 132.4 132.5 131.5 131.8 132.1 132.4 132.0 Utilization (percent) 1978 1979 1980 1981 82.4 85.9 84.2 80.4 82.6 86.3 84.0 79.8 83.8 86.3 83.6 80.1 85.4 85.2 81.6 79.4 85.4 85.7 79.4 79.8 85.8 85.5 78.2 80.1 85.5 85.1 77.5 80.5 85.6 84.3 77.6 80.2 85.6 84.1 78.7 79.5 86.1 84.4 79.5 78.7 86.5 84.1 80.8 77.7 86.8 84.0 81.1 76.7 82.9 86.2 83.9 80.1 85.5 85.5 79.7 79.8 85.6 84.5 77.9 80.1 86.4 84.1 80.5 77.7 85.1 85.1 80.5 79.4 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 75.0 72.0 79.4 79.7 80.2 76.3 71.5 79.6 80.0 79.4 75.6 72.1 79.9 79.9 78.8 74.8 72.9 80.2 79.7 78.8 74.2 73.4 80.5 79.6 78.8 73.8 73.8 80.6 79.5 78.6 73.4 74.9 80.7 79.0 78.8 72.7 75.8 80.5 79.2 78.5 72.4 76.8 80.2 79.4 78.6 71.7 77.4 80.0 79.0 78.8 71.3 77.5 80.1 79.1 79.1 70.6 77.9 80.1 79.8 79.6 75.6 71.9 79.6 79.9 79.5 74.2 73.4 80.5 79.6 78.7 72.8 75.8 80.5 79.2 78.6 71.2 77.6 80.1 79.3 79.2 73.5 74.7 80.2 79.5 79.0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 79.2 83.6 85.3 82.7 80.0 80.1 83.9 84.8 83.3 79.3 80.1 84.0 85.0 83.5 78.7 80.4 84.4 84.8 83.2 78.8 80.8 84.2 84.1 83.2 79.4 81.1 84.3 84.0 83.3 80.1 81.4 84.4 83.0 83.0 80.0 81.8 84.7 83.6 83.1 80.0 81.9 84.4 83.2 83.1 80.6 83.0 84.7 82.9 82.4 80.3 83.3 84.9 82.9 81.2 80.1 83.6 85.2 83.4 80.5 79.6 79.8 83.8 85.1 83.2 79.3 80.8 84.3 84.3 83.2 79.5 81.7 84.5 83.2 83.1 80.2 83.3 84.9 83.1 81.4 80.0 81.4 84.4 83.9 82.7 79.8 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 78.9 81.2 82.6 85.0 82.3 79.4 81.4 82.5 84.7 83.3 79.9 81.3 83.1 84.4 82.8 80.4 81.5 83.3 84.1 83.3 80.5 81.1 83.5 83.9 83.5 80.3 81.1 83.9 83.9 83.9 80.9 81.3 83.8 83.3 83.4 80.3 81.2 83.9 84.1 83.5 80.4 81.4 83.8 84.0 83.6 80.8 81.9 84.2 83.4 83.2 81.0 82.1 84.4 83.3 83.6 80.9 82.4 85.0 83.3 83.8 79.4 81.3 82.7 84.7 82.8 80.4 81.2 83.5 84.0 83.6 80.5 81.3 83.8 83.8 83.5 80.9 82.1 84.5 83.4 83.6 80.3 81.5 83.7 84.0 83.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 83.5 84.5 82.1 81.9 79.1 84.0 84.1 82.1 81.8 78.5 84.2 83.7 81.8 81.8 78.2 83.6 83.7 81.5 82.0 78.0 83.6 83.9 81.9 81.8 77.5 83.5 82.9 81.3 81.7 77.0 83.4 82.0 81.4 81.2 76.7 84.0 83.4 81.6 80.8 76.4 84.3 82.6 81.0 81.0 75.9 84.5 82.8 81.8 80.4 75.4 84.8 82.3 82.0 80.2 75.0 84.6 82.2 82.3 79.7 74.8 83.9 84.1 82.0 81.8 78.6 83.5 83.5 81.6 81.8 77.5 83.9 82.7 81.3 81.0 76.3 84.6 82.4 82.0 80.1 75.1 84.0 83.2 81.7 81.2 76.9 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 75.3 77.0 77.7 80.4 81.2 75.2 77.2 78.1 80.8 81.0 75.7 77.1 77.6 80.8 81.1 76.0 76.4 78.0 80.6 81.3 76.3 76.4 78.6 80.9 81.0 76.9 76.5 77.9 81.2 81.3 76.7 76.8 78.5 81.0 81.4 76.7 76.7 78.6 81.0 81.4 76.8 77.1 78.5 79.3 80.9 76.6 77.1 79.3 80.1 80.8 76.9 77.7 79.6 80.9 80.5 76.5 77.6 80.1 81.2 80.9 75.4 77.1 77.8 80.6 81.1 76.4 76.4 78.2 80.9 81.2 76.7 76.8 78.6 80.4 81.2 76.7 77.4 79.7 80.7 80.7 76.3 77.0 78.5 80.7 81.1 2007 2008 80.6 81.1 81.1 80.5 80.9 81.2 81.1 81.2 81.4 81.3 81.4 80.9 81.1 81.1 80.9 81.1 81.4 81.0 81.1 N OTE Estimates from October 2007 through February 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 27 Table 9A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual3 IP (percent change) 1978 1979 1980 1981 -1.5 -1.0 .3 -.5 .2 .4 -.2 -.7 1.6 .4 -.9 .4 1.6 -1.6 -2.3 .3 .2 1.2 -3.2 .6 .8 .0 -1.6 -.5 -.2 .0 -1.0 .2 .4 -1.5 .6 .0 .4 .1 1.7 -.6 .7 .3 1.8 -1.2 .8 -.4 1.9 -1.2 .8 .2 .2 -1.8 -.4 .6 -.2 -.6 13.3 -1.8 -20.2 2.1 3.2 -2.4 -8.7 -1.0 7.7 -1.5 19.0 -11.4 5.2 2.0 -4.9 .1 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 -2.4 2.4 1.8 -.4 1.2 2.5 -.2 .9 -.2 -.7 -.8 .9 .3 .8 -.3 -.8 1.1 .4 -.2 .4 -.3 1.2 .1 .1 .1 -.3 .7 .3 .1 -.2 -.3 1.3 .3 -.4 .2 -.8 .9 .0 .6 .2 -.4 1.6 -.3 .2 .2 -1.2 1.1 .4 -.3 .4 -.8 .2 .3 .6 .4 -.6 .2 .4 .4 .8 -10.3 8.1 11.5 .0 4.7 -3.0 11.2 4.6 1.5 -.2 -4.7 14.1 2.0 .7 1.3 -9.5 11.0 1.8 2.3 4.3 -6.6 3.7 8.5 1.4 2.1 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 -.5 -.2 .8 -.2 -.8 1.4 .2 -1.0 1.4 -.8 .1 .2 -.1 .3 -.8 .4 .8 .0 -.3 .4 .7 -.2 -.8 .1 .6 .3 .0 .1 .2 1.1 .6 .0 -1.3 -.2 .3 .3 .1 .9 .3 .2 .5 .3 -.3 -.1 1.1 1.5 .5 -.3 -.9 -.2 .6 .3 .1 -1.2 -.4 .5 .4 .2 -.8 -.3 4.7 1.8 2.1 3.8 -9.6 5.9 3.6 -3.5 1.9 1.5 5.5 .5 -4.1 .2 7.1 10.5 4.5 -.5 -7.4 .9 4.6 4.4 .4 .0 -2.6 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.8 1.1 .1 .2 -1.2 .9 .1 .0 -.3 1.4 .9 -.3 1.2 -.1 -.5 .4 .5 .6 -.4 1.0 .5 -.2 .5 -.2 .4 .1 -.2 .2 .2 .9 .8 .3 .3 -.8 -.1 -.5 -.2 .5 .9 .3 -.1 .5 .1 .6 .4 .5 .7 .7 -.5 -.4 .3 .3 .6 -.1 .7 -.3 .5 1.0 .1 .7 -1.1 3.9 3.9 3.1 -1.7 7.0 .9 7.2 -2.5 6.8 2.6 .5 3.8 .2 4.2 1.3 5.7 6.7 .6 3.1 2.6 2.5 4.4 2.5 1.5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 -.2 .5 .0 -.3 -.6 1.0 -.2 .4 -.2 -.5 .9 -.3 -.4 .3 -.3 -.7 .4 .0 .4 -.1 .5 .4 .8 -.5 -.7 .4 -1.1 -.7 .1 -.5 .1 -.9 .0 -.4 -.1 1.3 2.4 .6 -.8 -.7 .6 -.7 -.5 .4 -.4 .6 .7 1.4 -.5 -.7 .9 -.1 .4 -.6 -.2 .2 .2 .4 -.9 .1 6.0 2.9 .8 .4 -7.3 2.6 .1 .3 .9 -4.4 6.6 -.8 .2 -3.5 -4.9 8.7 4.0 7.0 -4.9 -5.1 4.9 3.5 1.4 .8 -4.9 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .6 .4 -.2 .6 .7 .0 -.1 .6 .6 -.5 .7 .1 -.2 -.3 .0 .0 -1.1 .6 .0 .5 .6 .0 .7 .5 -.4 1.0 .4 -.8 .2 .3 -.5 .0 .9 -.1 .0 .3 -.4 .6 .1 .2 .0 .7 -.3 -1.3 -.3 -.5 -.1 1.0 1.5 -.6 .3 .9 .1 .7 -.2 -.7 -.3 .5 -.1 1.0 3.3 .4 1.1 5.0 1.9 5.0 -3.7 3.5 1.4 .3 2.3 1.2 3.7 -.7 .5 -1.9 3.2 4.9 4.3 -2.1 .0 .0 2.2 3.3 1.2 2007 2008 -.6 .0 .1 -.4 .6 .3 .1 .4 .5 -.5 .3 -.7 .1 .0 .9 3.5 2.3 -2.2 .7 IP (2002=100) 1978 1979 1980 1981 70.7 75.3 74.7 72.0 70.9 75.6 74.6 71.4 72.0 75.8 73.9 71.7 73.2 74.6 72.2 71.9 73.3 75.5 69.9 72.3 73.9 75.5 68.8 71.9 73.7 75.5 68.1 72.1 74.1 74.3 68.5 72.0 74.3 74.4 69.6 71.6 74.8 74.6 70.9 70.8 75.4 74.3 72.2 69.9 76.0 74.5 72.3 68.6 71.2 75.5 74.4 71.7 73.5 75.2 70.3 72.1 74.0 74.7 68.7 71.9 75.4 74.4 71.8 69.8 73.5 75.0 71.3 71.4 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 66.9 66.1 73.5 75.6 77.8 68.6 66.0 74.2 75.4 77.3 68.1 66.5 74.5 76.0 77.0 67.6 67.3 74.8 75.8 77.3 67.4 68.1 74.9 75.9 77.4 67.2 68.6 75.1 76.0 77.3 67.0 69.4 75.4 75.7 77.4 66.5 70.1 75.4 76.2 77.6 66.2 71.2 75.1 76.3 77.7 65.4 71.9 75.4 76.1 78.0 64.9 72.1 75.6 76.5 78.3 64.5 72.2 75.9 76.9 78.9 67.9 66.2 74.1 75.6 77.4 67.4 68.0 74.9 75.9 77.3 66.6 70.2 75.3 76.1 77.6 64.9 72.1 75.6 76.5 78.4 66.7 69.1 75.0 76.0 77.7 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 78.5 83.8 86.8 84.4 82.6 79.6 83.9 85.9 85.6 82.0 79.7 84.2 85.9 85.8 81.3 80.0 84.8 85.9 85.5 81.6 80.5 84.6 85.2 85.6 82.1 80.8 84.7 85.3 85.8 83.1 81.2 84.7 84.2 85.6 83.3 81.5 84.8 84.9 85.8 83.5 81.9 85.0 84.6 85.7 84.3 83.1 85.5 84.4 85.0 84.2 83.6 85.7 84.4 84.0 83.9 84.0 86.1 84.6 83.3 83.6 79.3 84.0 86.2 85.2 82.0 80.4 84.7 85.4 85.7 82.3 81.5 84.8 84.6 85.7 83.7 83.6 85.8 84.5 84.1 83.9 81.2 84.8 85.2 85.2 83.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 82.9 86.8 88.8 94.0 92.3 83.7 86.8 88.8 93.7 93.6 84.4 86.6 89.8 93.6 93.1 84.8 87.1 90.3 93.2 94.0 85.2 87.0 90.8 93.0 94.4 85.3 86.8 90.9 93.2 95.2 86.0 87.0 91.2 92.5 95.1 85.5 86.9 91.7 93.3 95.5 85.5 87.3 91.7 93.8 95.9 85.8 87.9 92.4 93.4 95.5 86.1 88.2 92.9 93.3 96.2 85.9 88.6 93.8 93.4 96.9 83.7 86.7 89.1 93.7 93.0 85.1 86.9 90.7 93.2 94.5 85.6 87.0 91.5 93.2 95.5 85.9 88.3 93.0 93.4 96.2 85.1 87.2 91.1 93.4 94.8 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 96.7 102.9 103.6 105.8 102.3 97.7 102.8 104.1 105.6 101.8 98.5 102.4 103.6 106.0 101.4 97.8 102.9 103.5 106.3 101.3 98.3 103.2 104.3 105.8 100.6 98.7 102.1 103.6 105.9 100.1 98.8 101.2 103.6 105.5 100.0 100.1 103.6 104.3 104.7 99.3 100.7 102.8 103.7 105.1 99.0 101.3 103.5 105.2 104.5 98.2 102.2 103.4 105.7 103.9 98.0 102.4 103.6 106.1 103.0 98.1 97.6 102.7 103.8 105.8 101.8 98.3 102.7 103.8 106.0 100.7 99.9 102.5 103.9 105.1 99.4 102.0 103.5 105.7 103.8 98.1 99.4 102.9 104.3 105.2 100.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 98.7 100.3 100.4 104.7 107.2 98.7 100.3 101.0 105.4 106.6 99.4 100.4 100.8 105.0 106.6 99.4 99.3 101.4 105.0 107.1 100.0 99.2 102.1 105.5 106.7 101.0 99.7 101.3 105.7 107.0 100.5 99.7 102.2 105.6 107.0 100.8 99.3 102.8 105.7 107.2 100.8 100.1 102.5 104.4 106.9 100.3 100.0 103.5 105.9 106.2 100.6 100.9 103.6 106.6 106.1 99.9 100.6 104.1 106.5 107.1 98.9 100.3 100.7 105.0 106.8 100.1 99.4 101.6 105.4 106.9 100.7 99.7 102.5 105.2 107.0 100.2 100.5 103.7 106.3 106.5 100.0 100.0 102.2 105.5 106.8 2007 2008 106.4 107.7 106.5 107.3 107.2 107.5 107.5 107.9 108.5 108.0 108.3 107.5 107.7 107.7 106.7 107.6 108.3 107.6 107.6 Year N OTE Estimates from October 2007 through February 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 28 Table 9B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1978 1979 1980 1981 85.9 88.2 90.2 92.3 86.1 88.3 90.4 92.5 86.3 88.5 90.5 92.7 86.5 88.7 90.7 92.9 86.7 88.9 90.9 93.0 86.9 89.0 91.0 93.2 87.1 89.2 91.2 93.3 87.3 89.4 91.4 93.5 87.4 89.6 91.6 93.6 87.6 89.7 91.8 93.8 87.8 89.9 92.0 93.9 88.0 90.0 92.1 94.0 86.1 88.3 90.4 92.5 86.7 88.9 90.9 93.0 87.3 89.4 91.4 93.5 87.8 89.9 92.0 93.9 87.0 89.1 91.2 93.2 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 94.2 94.8 94.5 96.0 98.0 94.3 94.8 94.5 96.2 98.1 94.4 94.8 94.6 96.4 98.2 94.5 94.7 94.7 96.6 98.3 94.6 94.7 94.7 96.8 98.4 94.6 94.6 94.9 97.0 98.5 94.7 94.6 95.0 97.2 98.6 94.8 94.5 95.1 97.3 98.7 94.8 94.5 95.3 97.5 98.8 94.8 94.5 95.4 97.6 98.9 94.8 94.5 95.6 97.8 99.0 94.8 94.5 95.8 97.9 99.1 94.3 94.8 94.5 96.2 98.1 94.6 94.7 94.8 96.8 98.4 94.8 94.5 95.1 97.3 98.7 94.8 94.5 95.6 97.8 99.0 94.6 94.6 95.0 97.0 98.5 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 99.3 100.5 101.2 103.2 105.1 99.4 100.6 101.3 103.3 105.2 99.6 100.6 101.4 103.5 105.4 99.7 100.6 101.6 103.6 105.5 99.8 100.6 101.7 103.8 105.7 100.0 100.7 101.9 104.0 105.8 100.1 100.7 102.1 104.1 105.9 100.2 100.7 102.3 104.3 106.1 100.3 100.8 102.5 104.4 106.2 100.4 100.8 102.6 104.6 106.3 100.5 100.9 102.8 104.7 106.5 100.5 101.0 103.0 104.9 106.6 99.4 100.6 101.3 103.3 105.2 99.8 100.6 101.8 103.8 105.7 100.2 100.7 102.3 104.3 106.1 100.4 100.9 102.8 104.7 106.5 100.0 100.7 102.0 104.0 105.8 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 106.7 107.9 109.2 111.2 114.1 106.8 108.0 109.3 111.4 114.3 106.9 108.1 109.5 111.6 114.6 107.0 108.2 109.6 111.9 114.8 107.1 108.4 109.7 112.1 115.1 107.2 108.5 109.9 112.3 115.3 107.3 108.6 110.1 112.6 115.6 107.4 108.7 110.2 112.8 115.9 107.5 108.8 110.4 113.1 116.2 107.6 108.9 110.6 113.3 116.5 107.7 109.0 110.8 113.6 116.8 107.8 109.1 111.0 113.8 117.1 106.8 108.0 109.3 111.4 114.3 107.1 108.4 109.8 112.1 115.1 107.4 108.7 110.2 112.8 115.9 107.7 109.0 110.8 113.6 116.8 107.2 108.5 110.0 112.5 115.5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 117.5 123.0 128.0 131.5 133.9 117.9 123.5 128.3 131.7 134.0 118.3 124.0 128.6 132.0 134.2 118.7 124.4 128.9 132.2 134.3 119.1 124.9 129.3 132.4 134.4 119.6 125.3 129.6 132.6 134.5 120.1 125.7 129.9 132.8 134.5 120.6 126.2 130.1 133.0 134.6 121.1 126.5 130.4 133.2 134.6 121.6 126.9 130.7 133.4 134.7 122.1 127.3 131.0 133.6 134.7 122.5 127.6 131.2 133.8 134.7 117.9 123.5 128.3 131.7 134.0 119.2 124.9 129.3 132.4 134.4 120.6 126.1 130.1 133.0 134.6 122.1 127.3 131.0 133.6 134.7 119.9 125.5 129.7 132.7 134.4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 134.7 133.9 133.0 132.9 134.0 134.7 133.8 133.0 133.0 134.1 134.7 133.7 133.0 133.0 134.2 134.6 133.6 132.9 133.1 134.3 134.6 133.5 132.9 133.1 134.4 134.5 133.4 132.9 133.2 134.5 134.4 133.4 132.9 133.3 134.6 134.4 133.3 132.9 133.4 134.6 134.3 133.2 132.9 133.5 134.7 134.2 133.2 132.9 133.7 134.8 134.1 133.1 132.9 133.8 134.8 134.0 133.1 132.9 133.9 134.9 134.7 133.8 133.0 133.0 134.1 134.6 133.5 132.9 133.2 134.4 134.4 133.3 132.9 133.4 134.6 134.1 133.1 132.9 133.8 134.8 134.4 133.4 132.9 133.3 134.5 2007 2008 135.0 136.1 135.1 136.2 135.1 135.2 135.3 135.4 135.5 135.6 135.7 135.8 135.9 136.0 135.1 135.3 135.6 135.9 135.5 Utilization (percent) 1978 1979 1980 1981 82.3 85.3 82.8 77.9 82.3 85.5 82.5 77.2 83.4 85.7 81.6 77.4 84.6 84.1 79.6 77.5 84.6 84.9 76.9 77.8 85.0 84.8 75.6 77.2 84.7 84.6 74.7 77.2 84.9 83.2 74.9 77.1 85.0 83.1 76.0 76.5 85.4 83.2 77.2 75.5 85.9 82.6 78.5 74.4 86.4 82.7 78.5 73.0 82.7 85.5 82.3 77.5 84.7 84.6 77.4 77.5 84.9 83.6 75.2 76.9 85.9 82.8 78.1 74.3 84.6 84.1 78.3 76.5 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 71.1 69.7 77.8 78.7 79.4 72.8 69.6 78.5 78.4 78.8 72.1 70.2 78.8 78.8 78.4 71.5 71.0 79.0 78.5 78.7 71.2 71.9 79.0 78.4 78.7 71.0 72.5 79.2 78.4 78.5 70.7 73.4 79.3 77.9 78.6 70.2 74.2 79.3 78.3 78.6 69.8 75.3 78.9 78.3 78.7 68.9 76.2 79.0 77.9 78.8 68.4 76.3 79.1 78.3 79.1 68.0 76.5 79.2 78.5 79.6 72.0 69.8 78.4 78.6 78.9 71.2 71.8 79.1 78.4 78.6 70.2 74.3 79.2 78.1 78.6 68.5 76.3 79.1 78.2 79.2 70.5 73.1 78.9 78.4 78.8 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 79.1 83.3 85.8 81.8 78.7 80.1 83.5 84.9 82.8 77.9 80.1 83.7 84.7 82.9 77.2 80.2 84.3 84.5 82.5 77.4 80.7 84.1 83.7 82.5 77.7 80.8 84.1 83.7 82.5 78.5 81.1 84.1 82.4 82.2 78.6 81.3 84.1 83.0 82.3 78.7 81.6 84.3 82.6 82.1 79.4 82.8 84.7 82.2 81.3 79.2 83.2 84.9 82.1 80.2 78.8 83.6 85.2 82.1 79.4 78.5 79.8 83.5 85.1 82.5 77.9 80.6 84.2 84.0 82.5 77.9 81.4 84.2 82.7 82.2 78.9 83.2 85.0 82.1 80.3 78.8 81.2 84.2 83.5 81.9 78.4 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 77.8 80.4 81.3 84.5 80.9 78.4 80.4 81.2 84.1 81.9 79.0 80.1 82.0 83.8 81.2 79.3 80.5 82.4 83.3 81.8 79.6 80.3 82.7 83.0 82.0 79.6 80.0 82.7 83.0 82.5 80.1 80.2 82.9 82.2 82.3 79.6 79.9 83.2 82.7 82.4 79.5 80.2 83.1 83.0 82.5 79.8 80.7 83.5 82.4 82.0 79.9 80.9 83.9 82.1 82.4 79.6 81.2 84.5 82.1 82.7 78.4 80.3 81.5 84.1 81.3 79.5 80.2 82.6 83.1 82.1 79.8 80.1 83.0 82.6 82.4 79.8 81.0 84.0 82.2 82.4 79.3 80.4 82.8 83.0 82.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 82.3 83.6 81.0 80.4 76.4 82.9 83.2 81.1 80.2 75.9 83.3 82.6 80.5 80.3 75.6 82.4 82.6 80.3 80.4 75.5 82.5 82.7 80.7 79.9 74.9 82.5 81.5 80.0 79.8 74.4 82.3 80.5 79.8 79.4 74.3 83.0 82.1 80.1 78.7 73.8 83.2 81.3 79.5 78.8 73.5 83.3 81.6 80.5 78.3 72.9 83.7 81.3 80.7 77.7 72.8 83.6 81.2 80.9 77.0 72.8 82.8 83.1 80.9 80.3 76.0 82.5 82.3 80.3 80.1 74.9 82.8 81.3 79.8 79.0 73.9 83.5 81.3 80.7 77.7 72.8 82.9 82.0 80.4 79.3 74.4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 73.3 74.9 75.5 78.8 80.0 73.3 74.9 75.9 79.2 79.5 73.8 75.1 75.8 79.0 79.4 73.8 74.3 76.3 78.9 79.7 74.3 74.3 76.8 79.3 79.4 75.1 74.7 76.2 79.3 79.5 74.8 74.7 76.9 79.2 79.5 75.0 74.5 77.4 79.2 79.6 75.1 75.1 77.2 78.1 79.4 74.7 75.1 77.9 79.2 78.8 75.0 75.8 78.0 79.7 78.6 74.5 75.6 78.3 79.5 79.4 73.4 75.0 75.7 79.0 79.7 74.4 74.4 76.4 79.2 79.5 74.9 74.8 77.2 78.9 79.5 74.7 75.5 78.1 79.5 79.0 74.4 74.9 76.9 79.1 79.4 2007 2008 78.8 79.1 78.9 78.8 79.3 79.5 79.5 79.7 80.1 79.6 79.8 79.2 79.3 79.2 79.0 79.6 79.8 79.2 79.4 N OTE Estimates from October 2007 through February 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 29 Table 10 A NNUAL P ROPORTIONS IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Item 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 57.2 28.3 7.8 3.7 .4 1.4 2.3 58.7 29.8 8.1 4.0 .4 1.4 2.3 58.5 30.8 8.9 4.7 .4 1.4 2.4 57.8 30.7 8.7 4.6 .4 1.4 2.3 56.6 29.9 7.9 4.0 .4 1.3 2.2 56.6 29.6 7.4 3.6 .3 1.3 2.2 56.5 29.1 7.0 3.3 .3 1.2 2.2 56.1 29.3 6.7 3.2 .3 1.1 2.1 20.5 16.8 9.3 1.2 3.9 1.9 3.7 21.7 17.9 9.9 1.1 4.4 2.0 3.8 21.9 18.0 9.7 .9 4.9 2.0 3.9 22.0 17.8 9.7 .8 4.9 1.8 4.2 22.0 17.1 9.4 .7 4.8 1.7 4.9 22.2 16.5 9.0 .6 4.7 1.7 5.7 22.1 16.2 8.8 .6 4.8 1.6 5.8 22.7 16.3 9.0 .5 4.7 1.6 6.4 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 11.6 2.0 4.1 5.6 1.5 11.2 2.0 3.8 5.3 1.8 10.2 1.8 3.1 5.3 1.8 9.6 1.6 2.9 5.0 1.8 9.4 1.6 2.9 4.9 1.7 9.3 1.6 2.8 4.9 1.8 9.6 1.8 2.8 5.0 1.7 9.4 1.7 2.7 5.0 1.7 Construction supplies Business supplies 4.2 11.1 4.3 11.1 4.3 11.0 4.3 11.0 4.3 10.8 4.4 10.9 4.4 10.8 4.2 10.6 42.8 32.1 20.8 4.1 8.1 8.6 11.3 .9 2.8 4.2 10.6 41.3 30.6 19.5 3.8 7.3 8.4 11.2 .8 2.8 4.1 10.6 41.5 30.5 19.0 4.0 6.6 8.4 11.5 .8 2.7 4.5 11.0 42.2 30.0 18.6 3.8 6.5 8.3 11.4 .7 2.5 4.6 12.2 43.4 30.0 18.5 3.5 6.4 8.6 11.5 .7 2.4 5.2 13.3 43.4 29.6 18.1 3.3 6.2 8.6 11.5 .7 2.3 5.4 13.8 43.5 29.6 18.0 3.1 6.1 8.8 11.6 .6 2.3 5.5 13.9 43.9 29.3 17.5 2.9 6.0 8.6 11.7 .5 2.2 5.8 14.6 321 327 331 332 333 334 84.0 79.2 45.3 1.4 2.2 2.5 6.0 5.9 10.4 83.5 78.6 44.0 1.4 2.2 2.3 5.8 5.5 9.4 83.2 78.5 43.2 1.5 2.2 2.3 5.7 5.3 8.1 81.7 77.2 42.0 1.6 2.2 2.3 5.5 5.0 7.9 80.5 76.2 40.7 1.6 2.2 2.7 5.3 4.9 7.8 79.5 75.4 39.6 1.5 2.3 2.6 5.3 4.9 7.4 79.2 75.4 39.6 1.4 2.3 2.8 5.5 5.0 7.2 78.7 75.0 38.5 1.2 2.2 2.7 5.6 4.9 6.8 335 3361–3 2.5 6.6 2.4 6.5 2.2 7.4 2.0 7.2 1.9 6.4 1.9 5.9 1.9 5.5 1.9 5.1 3364–9 337 339 3.2 1.7 2.9 3.7 1.7 3.1 3.5 1.8 3.3 3.3 1.7 3.3 3.1 1.6 3.1 3.2 1.6 3.1 3.3 1.5 3.1 3.5 1.4 3.1 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 33.9 10.6 1.4 1.3 3.1 2.6 1.8 9.3 3.7 34.6 11.3 1.3 1.2 3.1 2.6 1.7 9.7 3.7 35.3 11.3 1.4 1.0 3.1 2.4 1.8 10.7 3.8 35.2 11.4 1.3 .9 2.9 2.2 2.1 10.8 3.6 35.5 10.9 1.2 .7 2.7 2.1 3.2 11.2 3.4 35.8 10.5 1.2 .6 2.6 2.0 4.2 11.3 3.3 35.7 10.4 1.0 .6 2.6 1.9 4.5 11.4 3.2 36.5 10.7 .9 .6 2.5 1.9 5.2 11.6 3.0 1133,5111 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 21 2211,2 2211 2212 7.1 8.9 7.6 1.4 7.1 9.4 8.0 1.4 7.2 9.6 8.2 1.4 8.5 9.8 8.2 1.6 9.8 9.7 8.0 1.7 10.7 9.8 8.0 1.8 11.0 9.7 8.1 1.6 11.6 9.7 8.0 1.7 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 NOTE. The IP proportion data are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall IP change between the reference year and the following year. For example, a 1 percent increase in durable goods manufacturing between 2007 and 2008 would account for a 0.385 percent increase in total IP. 30 Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: E XPLANATORY N OTE The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. A Im A Im−1 s P P Im pm Im pm−1 P = ×P Im−1 pm−1 Im−1 pm The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 8 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 8/10 percentage point (0.08 x 10% = 0.8%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2002. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries-logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing-that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 300 individual series based on the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html). Changes in output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of the statistical tables, see below. Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and, beginning with the release of March 2008 data, subject to revision in each of the subsequent five months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 70 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to 84 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 98 percent in the third month, and 98 percent in the fourth month. Data availability by data type, based on the four-month reporting window used in 2007, is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2007) Month of estimate Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 29 42 56 56 Production-worker hours 42 42 42 42 IP data received 70 84 98 98 IP data estimated 30 16 2 2 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (29 percent out of total of 56 percent). Of the 29 percent, about two-thirds (19 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of the first month of a quarter. The incorporation of a six-month window is expected to allow an additional 3 percent to 4 percent of IP to reflect primary source data. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through April 31 2006; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 2005. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC (currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the SPC. Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent during the 1987–2005 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–2005 period. In most cases (about 86 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. Perspective. Over the 1972–2007 period, the average total industry utilization rate was 81.0 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate was 79.7 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. C APACITY U TILIZATION Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES References. The annual revision published in November 2005 is described in an article published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 92, pp. A39–A58. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital stock doc-latest.pdf. Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 87 detailed industries (69 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005). Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 25 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries account for a bit less than 70 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 5 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap notes.html). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2008: January 16, February 15, March 17, April 16, May 15, June 17, July 16, August 15, September 15, October 16, November 17, and December 15. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. 32
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