The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) 2009 Annual Revision For release at 2:00 p.m. (EDT) March 27, 2009 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2009 Annual Revision The Federal Reserve has revised the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. Although rates of change from January 1972 through February 2009 are affected, the revision has its largest impact on data in 2007 and 2008. The overall contour of total IP is little changed by the revision: The index posted moderate increases from 2004 through 2007 but declined sharply in 2008. Relative to earlier estimates, measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, total IP is now reported to have increased 0.3 percentage point more slowly in 2007 and to have decreased 0.5 percentage point more rapidly in 2008; the index for February 2009 now stands about 1 percent below its previously published level. The revision shows that the rates of capacity utilization for total industry in the fourth quarters of 2007 and 2008 were about 1/2 percentage point lower than previously estimated. At 74.3 percent, overall utilization in the fourth quarter of 2008 was 6.6 percentage points below its 1972–2008 (long-run) average. The revision to IP incorporates new data from the following sources: manufacturing data from selected 2007 Current Industrial Reports from the U.S. Census Bureau, annual data on the publishing industry from the Census Bureau’s Services Annual Survey, new annual data on mineral extraction for 2006 and 2007 from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), annual data on logging for 2007 from the U.S. Forest Service, the 2002 input-output tables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and updated price deflators from the BEA. Comprehensive benchmark data for manufacturing for 2007 are not yet available. The results of both the 2007 Census of Manufactures and the 2008 Annual Survey of Manufactures (both from the Census Bureau) should be available for the 2010 revision to the IP indexes. Results from the 2007 and 2008 Quarterly Surveys of Plant Capacity, however, were used to augment the regular monthly production indicators in the revised production indexes for those years. The new monthly production estimates also reflect the incorporation of updated seasonal factors and monthly and quarterly source data that became available (or were revised) after the closing of the reporting window. The revised capacity utilization rates incorporate the results from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity for the fourth quarters of 2007 and 2008. In addition, the revisions to the capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates incorporate the revised production indexes and newly available data on industrial capacity from the USGS, the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other organizations. RESULTS OF THE REVISION The tables show the summary statistics for the annual revision. Tables 1A and 1B show the monthly, quarterly, and annual average index levels for IP and for capacity and utilization for January 1979 through February 2009, along with percent changes in IP and capacity utilization rates. Tables 2 and 3 show the revised rates of change in IP from 2004 through 2008 for market groups, industry groups, special aggregates, and selected detail. Table 4 shows the revised annual rates of change in IP for the 2004–08 period for selected detail, and table 5 shows the rates of change in capacity by industry groups for the 2005–09 period. Tables 2 through 5 1 also show the difference between the revised and earlier rates of change. Table 6 shows the revised capacity utilization rates for the final quarters of 2005 through 2008 and the differences between the revised and previous rates. Tables 7A, 7B, 8A, 8B, 9A, and 9B report the revised production, capacity, and utilization series for manufacturing, total industry excluding selected high-technology industries, and manufacturing excluding selected high-technology industries. Table 10 reports the annual proportions in IP by market and industry groups for 2001 through 2008. Table 11 reports revised IP indexes and capacity utilization rates for the major market and industry groups for the most recent six months. Industrial Production The changes in total IP were revised slightly for 2007 and 2008 (table 2), but the overall contour for recent years was little changed—moderate gains for 2004 through 2007 are still followed by a drop in the index in 2008.1 Compared with the previous estimates, the increase in output in 2007 is now reported to have been slower, and the decline in 2008 is now reported to have been faster.2 The increases for 2004 through 2006 are little changed. Production by Industry Group Manufacturing production expanded, on net, during the 2004–07 period, albeit at a somewhat slower rate than initially reported, before contracting in 2008.3 For durable goods industries as a whole, output rose in each year from 2004 through 2007, although these gains have been moderated by the recent revision. Durable goods output fell sharply in 2008, and that drop was little changed, on net, compared with the previous estimate. For the 2004–06 period, the revisions to output in most durable goods industries were relatively modest, with the exception of computer and electronic products, in which the gain in output in 2006 is now stated to have been significantly lower. Relative to previous estimates, the current revision reports noticeably lower output indexes in 2007 for wood products, nonmetallic mineral products, computer and electronic products, and furniture and related products but it reports a noticeably higher output index in 2007 for miscellaneous durable goods. For 2008, relative to previous estimates, higher output indexes are reported for electrical equipment, appliances, and components and for furniture and related products, but the production indexes for wood products, primary metals, machinery, and computer and electronic products were revised down moderately. Production in nondurable manufacturing industries advanced in every year from 2004 through 2007 but fell sharply in 2008. Within the nondurable goods sector, output in most recent years was little changed, on net, compared with previous estimates. The current revision reports noticeably higher rates of change in 2007 in textile and product mills, apparel and leather, and petroleum and coal products but a noticeably lower rate of change in chemicals. For 2008, output is now reported to have fallen markedly faster for apparel and leather, printing and support activities, chemicals, and plastics and rubber products compared with previous estimates. The revised output index for non-NAICS manufacturing (logging and publishing) fell each year from 2005 through 2008, with a particularly sharp drop in 2008. The rate of change for these industries in 2006 is substantially higher than stated earlier, but revisions to the rates for other years were smaller. The index for mining rose modestly in the past two years after a jump in 2006; the increase in 2006 was revised up relative to previous estimates, but the index is otherwise similar to what was previously reported. The index for utilities is also nearly unchanged from previous estimates, with the exception of 2008, for which the index now shows a small decline rather than a small advance. 1 In this section, all the rates of change are calculated from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the reference year. Estimates for the fourth quarter of 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 2 The downward revision to overall IP in 2008 primarily reflects changes to the underlying indexes, but more than 0.1 percentage point of the revision to the rate of change resulted from updating the weights for energy goods to reflect the drop in energy prices in mid-2008. 3 Manufacturing consists of those industries in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries— logging and newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing—that traditionally have been considered to be manufacturing. 2 The estimates for selected high-technology industries—computers and peripheral equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components—had sizable revisions over the 2004–08 period (table 3). On net, output in the high-tech sector is still reported to have posted gains in recent years, with robust increases from 2004 through 2007 followed by a moderate contraction in 2008. However, the increases in 2006 and 2007 are now shown to have been slower, and the decrease in 2008 is now shown to have been more rapid, than reported earlier. The index for computers and peripheral equipment rose in each of the years from 2004 through 2007 and then fell in 2008; the rates of change were revised up in each of the past few years except 2005. The output of communications equipment expanded in each of the past few years, but the rates of increase in most years are markedly lower than estimated previously, particularly in 2007. Production of semiconductors and related components rose solidly from 2004 through 2007 but contracted significantly in 2008; the rates of change in 2004, 2006, 2007, and 2008 are notably lower than formerly reported, and the rise in 2005 is now higher. Production by Market Group The production index for final products and nonindustrial supplies (table 2) posted moderate gains from 2004 through 2007 and then fell markedly in 2008. The rates of change in the index are a bit lower than previously reported for 2007 and 2008 but are little changed for previous years.4 The production of consumer goods rose modestly in 2004 and 2005, was almost unchanged in 2006 and 2007, and then moved down significantly in 2008. Compared with previous estimates, output was revised down noticeably in 2007; the revisions to other recent years were much smaller. The output of durable consumer goods fell slightly, on net, from 2004 through 2007 and then dropped steeply in 2008; the rate of change was revised up somewhat in 2006. Among durable consumer goods, the most significant revisions were in the index for home electronics, which now increases less rapidly in 2005 and 2006, but more rapidly in 2004 and 2007; in 2008, the index now posts an advance instead of a decline. The index for consumer nondurables shows moderate gains in output for 2004, 2005, and 2006 and modest contractions for 2007 and 2008. The index for consumer nondurable non-energy goods was nearly unaltered in every year except 2007, which now shows a decline. In that year, significantly lower estimates of the output of chemical products and of paper products more than account for the revision. The index for consumer energy products was revised down in 2008 but still posted moderate increases, on net, over the past few years. The production of business equipment increased solidly from 2004 through 2006, rose modestly in 2007, and then deteriorated in 2008. Relative to previous estimates, the rate of change in the index was noticeably lower in 2005 and 2007; the revisions to other recent years were smaller. For transit equipment, output rose substantially, on net, from 2004 through 2006 and fell back in 2007; the index plummeted in 2008, partly because of weakness in the motor vehicle industry and partly because of a strike at a major aircraft producer in the second half of the year. The rates of change in the index for transit equipment were revised down in 2004, 2005, and 2008; were revised up in 2007; and were little changed in 2006. The production of information processing equipment expanded in each year from 2004 through 2008. The increases in each year were revised down, however, except in 2004 and in 2008, for which the index now posts an advance instead of a small decline. The production of defense and space equipment is now estimated to have risen more slowly in 2004 and more quickly in 2005 and 2007; the declines in 2006 and 2008 are now reported to have been smaller than stated previously. After posting gains in 2004 and 2005, the output of construction supplies fell back in 2006 and 2007 and then dropped sharply in 2008; relative to earlier estimates, the index decreased less in 2007. The production of business supplies rose modestly from 2004 through 2007 and then slumped in 2008; this index now reports a 4 Although aggregate IP was little revised before 2007, some market groups had noticeable revisions. These revisions were often due to the incorporation of the 2002 input-output tables in the IP estimates, which changed the allocation of individual IP indexes among market groups. 3 small increase for 2006 instead of a small decline, and the rate of change in 2008 is weaker than previously reported. The index for materials moved up over the years 2004 through 2007, then fell markedly in 2008; the rate of change in 2008 is now somewhat weaker than the previous estimate. The indexes for durable and nondurable materials both fell more than 10 percent in 2008 after having increased moderately, on net, from 2004 through 2007. Relative to earlier estimates, over the 2004–08 window, the rates of change for the index for durable materials are lower, on net, but the rates of change for the index for nondurable materials are higher overall. The index for energy materials only edged up in 2008 after having increased moderately in the previous two years, and it is little changed by the revision. Capacity Overall, total industrial capacity posted moderate gains from 2005 through 2008 but is expected to decline in 2009 (table 5). The rates of change in both 2008 and 2009 were revised down noticeably from earlier estimates, but revisions to earlier years were smaller. The contour of manufacturing capacity and the revisions to that contour are similar to those for total industry. Aggregate capacity for the selected high-technology industries rose in each year from 2005 through 2009; the revision shows that, relative to previous reports, capacity in these industries rose less quickly in 2005, 2006, and especially 2008 but increased somewhat more rapidly in 2007 and it is expected to rise in 2009. Excluding high-technology industries, manufacturing capacity expanded from 2005 through 2008 but is expected to decline in 2009. The current estimates are similar to previous reports except for 2009, for which the contraction in capacity is now anticipated to be greater than stated previously. Capacity at mines is estimated to have fallen in 2005 and to have expanded from 2006 through 2008; it is expected to recede somewhat in 2009. The gains in 2006 and 2008 are now reported to have been stronger than previously published, but the rates of change in 2007 and 2009 have been revised down. Capacity at electric and gas utilities has risen each year since 2004. The current estimates show quicker gains in 2005 and 2006 than reported earlier; revisions to other recent years were negligible. By stage of processing, capacity in the crude stage is now reported to have risen more in 2006 and 2008 than previously shown but is now expected to fall in 2009. The rates of change for capacity in the primary and semifinished stages were revised down for 2008 and 2009; revisions to earlier years were slight. Relative to previous estimates, increases to the index for finished goods processors were revised up in 2007 and 2008, but capacity is expected to fall more in 2009 than stated previously. Capacity Utilization From 2005 through 2007, the capacity utilization rate for total industry stood a little below its long-run (1972 to 2008) average of 80.9 percent but in 2008 fell to a level more than 6 1/2 percentage points below its long-run average (table 6). The utilization rate for total industry was revised down noticeably in 2007 and 2008; revisions to earlier years were slight. Similarly, manufacturing capacity utilization, on balance, spent 2005 through 2007 at a little below its long-run average of 79.6 percent and tumbled to 71.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, 8 1/2 percentage points below its long-run average. Relative to earlier reports, the factory operating rate was revised down in 2007 and 2008. Within durable goods, utilization rates for most industries were near their long-run averages from 2005 through 2007 and then dropped well below average in 2008; an exception was motor vehicles and parts, in which the utilization rate was significantly below average in 2006 and 2007 and then fell even further in 2008. In the fourth quarter of 2008, three durable goods industries (nonmetallic mineral products, primary metals, and furniture and related products) had utilization rates between 10 and 20 percentage points below their long-run averages, and two durable goods 4 industries (wood products, and motor vehicles and parts) had utilization rates more than 20 percentage points below their long-run averages. Among durable goods industries, some of the larger downward revisions to utilization over the 2005–08 period were for wood products, nonmetallic mineral products, and motor vehicles and parts. The durable goods industries that reported the largest net upward revisions since 2005 were machinery; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment; and furniture and related products. As with the durable goods industries, utilization rates for most nondurable goods industries were near their long-run averages from 2005 through 2007 but turned down sharply in 2008. In the fourth quarter of 2008, four nondurable goods industries (textile and product mills, paper, printing and support activities, and plastics and rubber products) had utilization rates between 10 and 20 percentage points below their long-run averages. Among nondurable goods industries, the following industries had the largest downward revisions to their utilization rates over the 2005–08 period: food, beverage, and tobacco products; petroleum and coal products; and plastics and rubber products. Textile and product mills, apparel and leather, and printing and support activities had the largest upward revisions to their utilization rates over the 2005–08 period. Capacity utilization in the other (non-NAICS) manufacturing category was revised downward for 2005 and upward for 2006 through 2008. The operating rates for the selected high-technology industries were slightly above their long-run averages in the fourth quarters of 2006 and 2007 but fell more than 7 percentage points below their long-run averages in 2008. Relative to earlier estimates, capacity utilization is now reported to have been higher in 2005, 2006, and 2008 but lower in 2007. The operating rates for computers and peripheral equipment are now shown to have been higher than previously reported in each of the past few years, particularly 2008. Utilization rates for communications equipment are now higher than previously reported in 2005 and 2006 but lower in 2007 and 2008. Capacity utilization in the semiconductors and related electronic components industry was above or near its long-run average from 2005 through 2007, but, in the fourth quarter of 2008, although it was revised up, it still stood at more than 14 percentage points below its long-run average. Capacity utilization in mining was generally above its long-run average from 2005 through 2008, and in the fourth quarter of 2008 stood at 89.5 percent, almost 2 percentage points higher than its long-run average. Relative to earlier estimates, the utilization rate for mining was a little lower in 2006 and 2008 but was little changed in 2005 and 2007. At electric and gas utilities, capacity utilization rates were revised down for 2005 through 2008, and capacity utilization in the fourth quarter of 2008 is now estimated to have been nearly 4 percentage points below its long-run average. TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF THE REVISION Comprehensive data for 2007 for manufacturing were not available for this revision. After incorporating the limited information that was available, the benchmark indexes for manufacturing—defined for each six-digit NAICS industry as nominal gross output divided by a price index—were little changed before 2007. The principal changes resulted from small revisions to price indexes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and from improved estimates of price indexes for communications equipment output constructed by the Federal Reserve (discussed below). In addition, the benchmark indexes for logging and publishing (included in the IP index for manufacturing but no longer included in manufacturing under NAICS) were advanced through 2007 and updated for 2006 based on data from the U.S. Forest Service and the Census Bureau. The IP indexes in recent years did incorporate information from selected Current Industrial Reports for 2007, the revised input-output accounts for 2002 from the BEA, the Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity for 2007 and 2008, and other annual industry reports. The indexes also incorporated revised monthly and quarterly source data on production, shipments, inventories, and production-worker hours. 5 As mentioned earlier, the benchmark indexes for most industries incorporate updated price indexes from the industry output program of the BEA. However, the price indexes for pharmaceuticals (NAICS 325412), for semiconductors (NAICS 334413), and for most components of communications equipment (NAICS 3342) are constructed by the Federal Reserve from alternative sources.5 Changes to the Methodology for Adjusting for Temporary Help Supply Employees. The compilation of the initial IP estimate for a given month relies heavily on the hours worked by production workers in the manufacturing sector when the availability of the other IP source data is limited. The hours data are adjusted to account for the labor input of temporary help supply (THS) employees who work in the manufacturing sector. The procedure for implementing this adjustment is as follows. An estimate is made of the component of THS employment that is allocated to manufacturing. This estimate begins with a baseline figure projected from the Current Population Survey but varies based on the cyclical movements of the manufacturing sector and the rest of the economy—THS employment has a cyclical pattern similar to that of manufacturing.6 The THS employment in manufacturing is then allocated among the NAICS three-digit industries based on each industry’s use of THS workers and cyclical patterns. With this revision, the allocation of THS employment among industries within manufacturing was updated based on data from the annual Survey of Plant Capacity for 2002 through 2005.7 In addition, this revision updates the method for estimating each industry’s monthly baseline share of temporary help employment use in manufacturing. Previously, this share was held constant for each industry at the level estimated according to the method above. With this revision, the share is allowed to evolve based on the industry’s share of total manufacturing employment. An adjusted production-worker hour series for each three-digit manufacturing industry is computed by adding THS hours for an industry (THS employment multiplied by assumptions on hours per week and relative productivity) to the reported production-worker hours for the industry. The percentage adjustment for each three-digit industry’s hours is then applied to the hours series for each of its component industries. These adjusted detailed hours series are used in making (1) estimates for those IP series based on labor input for the period for which benchmark output indexes are not yet available and (2) preliminary estimates of those IP series based on physical product data for which the current source data are not yet available. Changes to Individual Production and Capacity Series With this revision, the monthly production indicators for some series have changed. Carpet and Rug Mills The index for carpet and rug mills (NAICS 31411) is based on quarterly data on unit shipments from the Carpet and Rug Institute. Formerly, it was based on monthly data from the same source. A cubic spline is used to interpolate monthly values from the quarterly figures, a method similar to that used for the other series for which only quarterly physical product data are available.8 High-Technology Goods Computers 5A table that lists annual and quarterly price indexes for the networking equipment component of communications equipment follows. Marcello Estevao and Saul Lach (1999), Measuring Temporary Labor Outsourcing in U.S. Manufacturing, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999–57 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October). 7 For several years, the Annual Survey of Plant Capacity collected information about the share of production workers that consisted of temporary workers; this information is not collected in the Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity. 8 See Richard D. Raddock (1993), Industrial Production, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization since 1987, Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 79 (June). 6 See 6 The six product-based indexes for electronic computer manufacturing (NAICS 334111) are derived from quarterly data on domestic absorption from International Data Corporation, an industry research group. Previously, to construct the monthly indicator, the nominal absorption data were aggregated to the industry level and converted to domestic industry shipments based on the Census Bureau’s trade data (by adding exports and subtracting imports). The industry-level ratio of shipments to domestic absorption was applied to each of the six product-level absorption estimates to obtain product-level shipments. With this revision, domestic absorption is now adjusted to reflect domestic production using the Census Bureau’s quarterly Current Industrial Report for computers and peripheral equipment when available, and it is projected forward using a model-based trend. Communications equipment Price indexes for two product classes in the communications equipment industry were revised to incorporate additional product detail. The price index for enterprise and home voice equipment (NAICS 33421, part), which covers the production of telephones, was updated. This price index was previously calculated using average selling prices for two types of phones (corded and cordless) but is now a matched-model index constructed using detailed data, beginning in 1997, from the Consumer Electronics Association on transmission frequency, number of lines, and presence of other features such as caller identification, speakerphone, and integrated answering machine. The price index for wireless system equipment (NAICS 33422, part), which covers mobile phone infrastructure, was improved by folding in additional detail on base-station radio transmission capacity using data from the Dell’Oro Group, a market research firm. The resulting mobile infrastructure price index falls 4 percentage points faster per year, on average, from 2000 to 2008. Capacity Electricity generation The capacity index for electric power generation, transmission, and distribution (NAICS 2211) is now based on generation capability data from the Department of Energy; previously it was based on electricity generation capacity data from the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC). The change was made because the DOE data are compiled using a more consistent definition over time. However, because the DOE data are published with a lag, the capacity projection for the most recent year or two is estimated by extending the DOE generation capability series by the rate of change shown for the NERC electricity generation capacity data. Nonferrous metals (except aluminum) The capacity index for nonferrous metal (except aluminum) production and processing (NAICS 3314) is now based on copper smelting, copper refining, and zinc smelting data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Formerly the capacity index was based on the USGS data on just copper smelting and copper refining. Natural gas extraction The DOE no longer publishes physical capacity estimates for natural gas extraction (NAICS 211111, part). Capacity estimates for recent years are based on output projections from the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) reports of the DOE. Trend-through-peak estimates The trend-through-peak method of estimating capacity is used for those industries in mining and utilities for which there are no physical capacity sources—seven individual series accounting for about 5 percent of capacity. With this revision, the trend-through-peak method used to estimate capacity indexes for oil extraction (NAICS 211111, part), natural gas liquid extraction (NAICS 211112), and natural gas sales and transmission 7 (NAICS 2212) is based on production indexes that are extended using output projections from the STEO and AEO reports from the DOE. The basic method in estimating trend-through-peak capacities for these industries is to construct baseline estimates of capacity by connecting peaks in production, with these peaks representing 100 percent utilization. In practice, the procedure involves a fair degree of judgment and deviates from a strict trend-through-peak approach in a variety of ways. Most importantly, if a peak in production was reached several years ago and production has not subsequently approached that previous maximum, published capacity levels generally will, after a time, trend downward. That is, they will tend to follow recent IP. Second, historically, the capacity levels corresponding to peaks in production for different series have yielded a variety of peak utilization rates. Weights for Aggregation The IP index is a Fisher index. The weights for manufacturing industries are derived from value-added measures from the Census of Manufactures and the Annual Survey of Manufactures. The Federal Reserve derives estimates of value added for the electric and gas utility industries from annual revenue and expense data issued by other organizations. The weights for aggregation, expressed as unit value added, were estimated with the latest data on producer prices for the period after 2006. Table 10 shows the annual value-added proportions in the IP index from 2001 through 2008. The outputs of most industries are inputs to multiple markets. Although data are sometimes available that directly split the output of an industry by its purchaser, most industry output measures do not provide that detail. With the 2002 annual revision, weights that allocate individual IP indexes into multiple market groups were derived from the 1997 input-output tables from the BEA.9 With this revision, the weights for the period from 2002 forward were updated using estimates from the 2002 input-output tables. The weights for the period up through 1997 are still computed from the 1997 tables, and the weights between 1997 and 2002 are linear combinations of the 1997 and 2002 weights. Revised Monthly Data This revision incorporates product data that became available or were revised after the regular six-month reporting window for monthly IP was closed. These data were released with too great a lag to be included with monthly IP estimates but were available for inclusion in the annual revision. Revised Seasonal Factors Seasonal factors for all series were reestimated using data that extend into 2008 or 2009. Factors for production-worker hours—which adjust for timing, holiday, and monthly seasonal patterns—were updated with data through February 2009. The updated factors for the physical product series, which include adjustments for holiday and workday patterns, used data through 2008. Seasonal factors for unit motor vehicle assemblies have been updated, and projections through September 2009 are on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/mvsf.htm. 9 See Carol Corrado (2003), Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2002 Historical and Annual Revision, Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 89 (April). 8 Data Availability and Publication Changes Files containing the revised data and the text and tables from this release are available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17, as are updated data for the annual revision and for all of the regularly issued series on industrial production, capacity, and capacity utilization. The revised data will also be available through the STAT-USA website of the Department of Commerce (www.stat-usa.gov). Further information on these revisions is available from the Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197). A document with printed tables of the revised estimates of series shown in the G.17 release is available upon request to the Industrial Output Section, Mail Stop 82, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551. An expanded version of this release will be published in a forthcoming article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin. 9 U.S. Networking Equipment, 1998 to 2007 Production Index Annual Estimates (indexes are 2002=100) 1998 50.6 1999 72.9 2000 101.1 2001 118.6 2002 100.0 2003 110.1 2004 129.3 2005 146.2 2006 242.8 2007 261.6 Quarterly Estimates (indexes are 2002=100) 1998Q1 42.3 1998Q2 50.7 1998Q3 54.0 1998Q4 56.5 Price Index Value of Production (millions of dollars) 234.4 194.4 174.1 133.2 100.0 76.6 59.9 54.3 51.4 50.2 17,220.1 20,677.1 25,691.3 23,103.2 14,602.6 12,158.9 11,322.5 11,559.9 18,137.0 19,219.8 261.9 244.6 219.0 213.9 16,107.6 18,052.1 17,217.1 17,589.7 1999Q1 1999Q2 1999Q3 1999Q4 67.7 73.1 72.5 79.4 205.0 195.9 195.4 182.6 20,192.3 20,847.5 20,604.9 21,094.6 2000Q1 2000Q2 2000Q3 2000Q4 92.1 102.0 103.1 108.1 182.8 172.1 175.2 167.8 24,498.6 25,530.4 26,263.9 26,376.7 2001Q1 2001Q2 2001Q3 2001Q4 122.4 117.7 118.4 115.9 147.2 137.6 126.9 122.5 26,217.5 23,562.3 21,869.4 20,666.9 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 105.1 95.0 103.1 96.7 111.3 107.9 92.3 89.5 17,022.9 14,915.6 13,836.7 12,598.8 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 92.3 108.3 122.7 116.5 89.2 81.8 72.3 63.6 11,979.4 12,886.8 12,902.8 10,782.7 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 152.2 130.8 121.1 115.9 61.9 60.5 59.6 57.8 13,699.1 11,504.0 10,498.2 9,737.4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 123.9 135.1 147.2 178.2 55.1 54.3 54.2 53.5 9,933.6 10,681.3 11,608.0 13,856.8 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 190.3 223.3 263.2 292.6 53.2 51.5 50.6 50.2 14,717.0 16,719.5 19,386.7 21,387.0 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 298.2 295.5 265.1 195.9 50.2 50.8 50.3 49.4 21,775.0 21,848.9 19,396.7 14,091.4 10 1. Total industrial production, capacity, and utilization 150 140 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Revised Earlier 150 140 130 130 120 120 Capacity 110 110 100 100 90 90 Production 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Percent of capacity 86 82 60 86 82 Utilization 78 78 74 74 70 70 66 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 11 2010 66 2. Manufacturing industrial production, capacity, and utilization 150 140 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Revised Earlier 150 140 130 130 120 120 Capacity 110 110 100 100 Production 90 90 80 80 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Percent of capacity 86 55 86 82 82 Utilization 78 78 74 74 70 70 66 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. Manufacturing consists of those industries in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries--logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing--that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. 12 66 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization Industrial production Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 115 110 105 100 95 90 115 110 105 100 95 90 Excluding high-technology industries 85 85 Total IP 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Industrial production 2004 2006 2008 60 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1988 1990 1992 Industrial production 1994 1996 1998 Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 350 300 300 250 250 Communications eq. -10 2002 2004 2006 Capacity utilization 350 200 2000 -5 2008 Percent of capacity 100 100 High-technology industries 90 90 200 80 150 80 150 70 100 100 Computers 80 60 -15 80 2000 2002 Semiconductors 2004 2006 2008 60 Excluding high-technology industries 70 60 50 60 1990 1995 2000 2005 50 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 13 4. Consumer goods Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 120 120 Revised Earlier 100 100 Detail: 2006 to present 110 108 106 80 80 104 102 100 98 2006 2007 2008 2009 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Components of consumer goods 125 2004 96 2006 2008 60 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 125 Revised durable Revised nondurable Earlier 105 105 Nondurable 85 85 Durable Detail: 2006 to present 65 65 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 2006 2007 2008 2009 45 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 70 2008 45 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 14 5. Equipment, total 140 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 140 Revised Earlier 110 110 90 90 70 Detail: 2006 to present 70 145 135 125 50 50 115 105 2006 2007 2008 2009 30 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Components of equipment 95 2006 2008 30 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 140 120 100 140 120 100 80 Detail: 2006 to present 60 80 145 135 60 125 Business 115 40 40 105 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Components of equipment 2006 95 2008 20 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 160 160 140 140 Defense and space 120 120 100 100 80 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 80 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 15 6. Nonindustrial supplies Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 120 Revised Earlier 120 90 90 Detail: 2006 to present 115 110 70 70 105 100 95 90 2006 2007 2008 2009 50 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 120 Components of nonindustrial supplies Detail: 2006 to present 90 Construction 70 2006 2007 2008 2009 50 120 1988 1990 1992 1994 2008 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 70 2008 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Components of nonindustrial supplies Detail: 2006 to present 90 120 90 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 2006 50 50 120 90 115 110 105 70 2006 2007 2008 2009 50 1988 70 100 Business 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 95 2008 50 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 16 7. Industrial materials 115 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 115 Revised Earlier 90 90 Detail: 2006 to present 115 110 70 70 105 100 2006 2007 2008 2009 50 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Components of industrial materials 2004 95 2006 2008 50 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 125 125 Energy 100 100 75 75 Detail: 2006 to present 120 115 110 Non-energy 105 100 95 2006 2007 2008 2009 50 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 90 2008 50 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 17 8. Capacity utilization by stage of process Capacity utilization 100 95 Percent of capacity 100 Revised Earlier 95 Crude processing 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Capacity utilization 2006 2008 70 Percent of capacity 95 95 Primary and semifinished processing 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Capacity utilization 2006 2008 65 Percent of capacity 90 90 85 85 Finished processing 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 18 2006 2008 60 Table 1A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Total Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual1 -.7 .4 -.6 -1.9 .6 .1 -.5 2.0 .3 -.3 .5 -.7 -1.1 -2.0 -.6 -.9 .8 -2.5 .7 -.7 .0 -1.2 .5 -.4 -.2 -.7 .7 -.4 -.7 .4 .0 -.9 .1 1.6 -.6 -.4 .6 1.3 -.7 -.8 -.1 1.7 -1.1 -.3 .1 .6 -1.1 -.7 1.7 1.7 .9 -7.7 -.6 -15.8 1.0 -5.1 -1.4 -6.3 4.3 -6.0 1.5 16.4 -8.5 -7.1 3.0 -2.5 1.3 -5.2 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1.9 2.0 -.3 .5 -.3 -.6 .5 .5 -.7 1.3 .8 .5 .1 -.6 .1 1.2 .6 -.2 .1 .6 .7 .5 .1 .1 .7 .5 .4 .1 -.3 .5 1.5 .3 -.6 .6 .6 1.1 .0 .4 -.1 .7 1.5 -.1 .5 .2 .3 .8 -.1 -.4 .5 1.5 .3 .4 .3 .5 .5 .5 .1 1.0 .9 .5 4.9 12.4 1.0 2.3 5.5 9.2 6.3 .4 -2.4 7.0 14.4 2.8 -.7 1.6 7.3 10.8 .4 2.4 4.7 10.2 2.8 8.9 1.2 1.0 5.2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 .0 .2 -.5 -.5 -.6 .4 -.4 .9 -.6 .8 .2 .3 .5 -.5 .8 .5 .0 -.1 .2 .7 -.1 -.7 .2 1.0 .4 .2 .0 .3 1.0 .0 .2 -.9 -.1 .0 .8 .5 .9 .2 .1 -.5 -.3 -.3 .2 .9 .2 .5 -.1 -.7 -.2 .7 .2 .3 -1.2 -.1 .4 .4 .6 -.7 -.4 .0 3.6 1.6 3.1 -7.4 -.5 3.6 -1.7 2.8 2.6 7.2 2.1 -2.4 1.2 5.5 2.9 2.9 1.8 -6.1 .9 4.0 5.2 .9 1.0 -1.6 2.8 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 .5 .4 .3 -.7 .1 .3 .0 .0 1.7 1.2 .0 1.1 .2 -.2 .8 .3 .5 .0 .8 .0 -.4 .6 .2 .6 .7 .2 .7 .3 .9 .5 .4 .2 -.4 -.1 .5 .0 .5 1.4 .6 1.4 .4 .2 .4 .6 .9 .7 .9 -.2 .0 .7 .4 .6 .3 .8 .9 .5 1.1 .4 .6 .4 3.6 5.2 5.1 2.9 7.9 .9 7.5 1.2 8.1 6.4 2.1 5.1 3.9 5.4 9.6 6.0 8.1 3.4 5.6 10.4 3.3 5.3 4.8 4.4 7.3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .5 .5 .0 -.7 .5 .0 .4 .4 -.6 .0 .1 .2 .4 -.3 .8 .4 .2 .6 -.3 .3 .7 .7 .2 -.7 .5 -.6 -.2 .1 -.6 .9 -.4 .6 -.2 -.4 -.3 2.1 .5 -.2 -.4 .1 -.3 -.3 .5 -.3 .1 .7 1.4 -.4 -.6 -.3 -.1 .6 .0 -.5 .4 .3 .8 -.4 .0 -.5 4.4 4.4 4.8 -5.7 2.5 3.2 3.7 4.9 -5.3 5.9 2.9 4.1 -.3 -5.7 2.1 5.1 8.1 -1.2 -5.0 -.4 5.9 4.3 4.2 -3.4 -.1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .7 .3 .4 .0 -.5 .3 .5 .6 .0 .8 -.1 -.6 -.1 .2 -.2 -.8 .5 .0 .4 .4 .0 .7 .3 -.1 .1 .1 -.9 .4 .4 .0 .4 .7 -.1 .2 .3 -.1 .2 .2 .2 .1 .6 .0 -1.7 -.3 .4 .1 .9 1.1 -.1 -.5 .9 .2 1.1 -.2 .6 -.1 .7 .6 .8 .3 2.9 2.8 5.7 3.6 1.8 -3.0 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.6 1.9 -.7 2.0 2.1 4.1 5.7 4.0 -.6 .8 1.3 2.5 3.3 2.3 1.5 2008 2009 -.1 -2.0 -.3 -1.5 -.4 -.6 -.3 -.2 -.1 -1.1 -4.0 1.4 -1.3 -2.4 .2 -4.6 -9.0 -12.7 -2.2 IP (2002=100) 1979 1980 1981 1982 57.6 58.0 57.0 54.7 57.9 58.1 56.7 55.8 58.1 57.9 57.1 55.4 57.5 56.8 56.7 54.9 57.9 55.3 57.1 54.5 57.9 54.6 57.4 54.3 57.8 54.3 57.8 54.1 57.4 54.5 57.8 53.6 57.5 55.3 57.4 53.4 57.8 56.1 57.0 53.0 57.8 57.0 56.4 52.8 57.8 57.3 55.8 52.4 57.9 58.0 56.9 55.3 57.8 55.6 57.1 54.6 57.6 54.7 57.7 53.7 57.8 56.8 56.4 52.7 57.7 56.3 57.0 54.1 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 53.4 59.3 60.9 62.3 62.7 53.1 59.6 61.2 61.8 63.5 53.6 59.9 61.3 61.4 63.6 54.2 60.3 61.2 61.5 64.0 54.6 60.6 61.2 61.6 64.4 54.9 60.8 61.3 61.4 64.7 55.7 60.9 60.9 61.7 65.1 56.4 61.0 61.1 61.6 65.6 57.2 60.9 61.4 61.8 65.8 57.7 60.8 61.1 62.0 66.8 57.9 61.1 61.3 62.3 67.1 58.1 61.1 62.0 62.9 67.4 53.4 59.6 61.2 61.8 63.3 54.6 60.5 61.2 61.5 64.4 56.4 60.9 61.1 61.7 65.5 57.9 61.0 61.5 62.4 67.1 55.6 60.5 61.3 61.9 65.1 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 67.5 69.6 69.0 68.2 68.7 67.7 69.3 69.6 67.8 69.2 67.9 69.4 70.0 67.5 69.8 68.3 69.4 69.9 67.6 70.3 68.2 68.9 70.0 68.3 70.6 68.4 69.0 70.2 68.9 70.6 68.5 68.3 70.1 68.9 71.2 68.8 69.0 70.2 69.0 70.8 68.6 68.8 70.4 69.6 71.0 69.0 68.7 69.9 69.5 71.5 69.1 68.9 69.0 69.4 71.8 69.4 69.4 68.6 69.1 71.8 67.7 69.4 69.5 67.8 69.3 68.3 69.1 70.0 68.3 70.5 68.6 68.7 70.2 69.2 71.0 69.1 69.0 69.2 69.3 71.7 68.4 69.1 69.7 68.7 70.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 72.2 74.6 79.7 81.1 86.5 72.4 74.6 79.7 82.4 87.6 72.4 75.4 79.8 82.3 88.3 72.6 75.8 79.7 83.0 88.3 72.3 76.2 79.9 83.5 88.9 72.5 76.7 80.1 84.2 89.3 72.8 76.9 79.9 84.2 89.8 72.8 77.3 80.9 84.7 91.0 73.1 77.4 81.3 85.1 91.9 73.6 78.1 81.1 85.2 92.5 73.9 78.6 81.3 85.9 93.3 74.3 79.4 81.7 86.4 93.7 72.3 74.9 79.7 82.0 87.5 72.5 76.2 79.9 83.6 88.8 72.9 77.2 80.7 84.7 90.9 73.9 78.7 81.4 85.8 93.2 72.9 76.8 80.4 84.0 90.1 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 94.1 97.5 102.4 102.7 98.4 94.2 97.9 102.9 102.1 98.4 94.2 98.1 103.3 101.8 99.2 94.6 98.3 103.9 101.5 99.5 95.3 99.0 104.1 100.8 100.0 94.8 98.8 104.3 100.1 100.9 94.4 99.5 104.0 99.7 100.6 96.3 100.0 103.8 99.3 100.6 96.1 99.7 104.3 99.0 100.7 96.7 101.0 103.9 98.4 100.4 96.6 101.6 103.9 97.9 100.9 97.0 102.4 103.5 97.9 100.4 94.2 97.8 102.9 102.2 98.7 94.9 98.7 104.1 100.8 100.1 95.6 99.7 104.0 99.3 100.6 96.8 101.7 103.7 98.1 100.6 95.4 99.5 103.7 100.1 100.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 101.1 102.7 106.3 108.9 109.9 101.4 103.3 107.0 108.9 110.8 101.3 102.7 106.9 109.1 110.6 100.5 103.1 106.8 109.5 111.1 100.5 103.9 107.1 109.4 111.1 100.6 103.0 107.5 109.9 111.2 101.0 103.7 107.5 110.1 111.5 100.9 103.9 107.7 110.3 111.6 101.5 103.9 105.8 110.0 112.0 101.6 104.8 107.0 109.8 111.4 102.5 105.1 108.2 109.6 112.1 102.4 105.8 108.9 110.5 112.4 101.3 102.9 106.7 109.0 110.5 100.5 103.3 107.2 109.6 111.1 101.2 103.8 107.0 110.1 111.7 102.2 105.3 108.0 110.0 112.0 101.3 103.8 107.2 109.7 111.3 2008 2009 112.3 100.3 112.0 98.8 111.6 111.0 110.7 110.4 110.4 109.2 104.8 106.3 104.9 102.4 112.0 110.7 108.1 104.5 108.8 Year IP (percent change) 1979 1980 1981 1982 N OTE Estimates from October 2008 through February 2009 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 19 Table 1B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Total Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1979 1980 1981 1982 67.1 68.9 70.7 72.7 67.3 69.1 70.9 72.9 67.4 69.2 71.0 73.0 67.6 69.3 71.2 73.2 67.8 69.5 71.4 73.3 67.9 69.6 71.5 73.4 68.1 69.8 71.7 73.5 68.2 69.9 71.9 73.6 68.4 70.1 72.1 73.7 68.5 70.2 72.2 73.8 68.6 70.4 72.4 73.9 68.8 70.5 72.6 73.9 67.3 69.1 70.9 72.9 67.8 69.5 71.4 73.3 68.2 69.9 71.9 73.6 68.6 70.4 72.4 73.9 68.0 69.7 71.6 73.4 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 74.0 74.5 76.3 78.2 79.3 74.0 74.5 76.5 78.3 79.5 74.0 74.7 76.7 78.4 79.6 74.1 74.8 76.9 78.5 79.8 74.1 74.9 77.1 78.5 79.9 74.1 75.1 77.2 78.6 80.1 74.1 75.2 77.4 78.7 80.2 74.2 75.4 77.6 78.8 80.4 74.2 75.6 77.7 78.9 80.5 74.2 75.7 77.8 79.0 80.6 74.3 75.9 78.0 79.1 80.7 74.4 76.1 78.1 79.2 80.8 74.0 74.6 76.5 78.3 79.5 74.1 74.9 77.1 78.5 79.9 74.2 75.4 77.6 78.8 80.4 74.3 75.9 78.0 79.1 80.7 74.1 75.2 77.3 78.7 80.1 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 80.9 81.7 83.7 85.5 86.8 81.0 81.8 83.8 85.6 87.0 81.1 82.0 84.0 85.7 87.1 81.1 82.1 84.2 85.8 87.3 81.2 82.3 84.3 85.9 87.5 81.2 82.4 84.5 86.0 87.7 81.2 82.6 84.6 86.1 87.9 81.3 82.8 84.8 86.2 88.0 81.4 82.9 84.9 86.3 88.2 81.4 83.1 85.1 86.5 88.4 81.5 83.3 85.2 86.6 88.5 81.6 83.5 85.3 86.7 88.7 81.0 81.8 83.8 85.6 87.0 81.2 82.3 84.3 85.9 87.5 81.3 82.8 84.8 86.2 88.0 81.5 83.3 85.2 86.6 88.5 81.2 82.5 84.5 86.1 87.8 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 88.8 90.4 93.9 98.1 103.8 89.0 90.6 94.2 98.6 104.3 89.1 90.9 94.5 99.0 104.9 89.2 91.1 94.8 99.5 105.4 89.3 91.4 95.1 99.9 106.0 89.4 91.7 95.5 100.4 106.6 89.5 92.0 95.8 100.9 107.2 89.6 92.3 96.2 101.4 107.8 89.7 92.6 96.5 101.8 108.5 89.9 92.9 96.9 102.3 109.1 90.1 93.2 97.3 102.8 109.8 90.2 93.5 97.7 103.3 110.5 89.0 90.6 94.2 98.6 104.3 89.3 91.4 95.1 99.9 106.0 89.6 92.3 96.2 101.4 107.8 90.1 93.2 97.3 102.8 109.8 89.5 91.9 95.7 100.7 107.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 111.2 118.8 124.5 129.6 133.5 112.0 119.3 124.9 129.9 133.7 112.7 119.8 125.4 130.3 133.9 113.4 120.3 125.8 130.7 134.0 114.1 120.7 126.2 131.1 134.1 114.7 121.2 126.7 131.4 134.2 115.4 121.7 127.1 131.8 134.2 116.0 122.1 127.5 132.1 134.2 116.6 122.6 127.9 132.4 134.2 117.1 123.1 128.3 132.7 134.2 117.7 123.5 128.7 133.0 134.1 118.2 124.0 129.2 133.3 134.1 112.0 119.3 124.9 129.9 133.7 114.1 120.7 126.2 131.1 134.1 116.0 122.1 127.5 132.1 134.2 117.7 123.5 128.7 133.0 134.1 114.9 121.4 126.9 131.5 134.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 134.0 133.5 133.3 134.7 136.9 133.9 133.5 133.4 134.9 137.1 133.8 133.4 133.4 135.0 137.3 133.8 133.4 133.5 135.2 137.6 133.7 133.4 133.6 135.4 137.8 133.6 133.4 133.7 135.5 138.0 133.6 133.3 133.8 135.7 138.3 133.6 133.3 134.0 135.9 138.5 133.5 133.3 134.1 136.1 138.7 133.5 133.3 134.3 136.3 139.0 133.5 133.3 134.4 136.5 139.2 133.5 133.3 134.6 136.7 139.4 133.9 133.5 133.4 134.9 137.1 133.7 133.4 133.6 135.4 137.8 133.6 133.3 134.0 135.9 138.5 133.5 133.3 134.4 136.5 139.2 133.7 133.4 133.8 135.7 138.1 2008 2009 139.6 140.7 139.8 140.7 139.9 140.1 140.2 140.4 140.5 140.6 140.7 140.7 140.7 140.7 139.8 140.2 140.6 140.7 140.3 Utilization (percent) 1979 1980 1981 1982 85.8 84.2 80.7 75.2 86.1 84.1 80.1 76.5 86.1 83.7 80.3 75.8 85.0 81.9 79.7 75.0 85.5 79.7 80.0 74.4 85.3 78.5 80.2 73.9 84.9 77.8 80.6 73.6 84.1 77.9 80.4 72.8 84.1 79.0 79.7 72.5 84.4 79.8 79.0 71.8 84.1 81.0 77.9 71.5 84.0 81.3 76.9 70.9 86.0 84.0 80.3 75.9 85.3 80.0 80.0 74.4 84.4 78.2 80.2 72.9 84.2 80.7 77.9 71.4 85.0 80.7 79.6 73.7 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 72.2 79.7 79.9 79.6 79.0 71.8 80.0 80.0 79.0 79.9 72.3 80.2 79.9 78.4 79.9 73.2 80.6 79.6 78.3 80.2 73.7 80.8 79.5 78.4 80.6 74.1 81.0 79.3 78.1 80.8 75.2 81.0 78.7 78.4 81.2 76.0 80.9 78.8 78.2 81.6 77.1 80.6 79.0 78.3 81.7 77.7 80.3 78.5 78.6 82.8 77.9 80.4 78.7 78.8 83.1 78.2 80.3 79.4 79.4 83.4 72.1 80.0 79.9 79.0 79.6 73.6 80.8 79.5 78.3 80.5 76.1 80.8 78.8 78.3 81.5 77.9 80.3 78.9 78.9 83.1 74.9 80.5 79.3 78.6 81.2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.4 85.1 82.5 79.9 79.1 83.6 84.6 83.1 79.2 79.6 83.8 84.7 83.3 78.7 80.1 84.2 84.6 83.0 78.8 80.5 84.1 83.8 83.0 79.5 80.6 84.2 83.7 83.1 80.1 80.5 84.3 82.8 82.8 80.0 81.0 84.7 83.3 82.9 80.0 80.4 84.3 83.0 82.9 80.6 80.5 84.7 82.7 82.2 80.4 80.9 84.8 82.8 81.0 80.2 81.1 85.0 83.1 80.3 79.8 80.9 83.6 84.8 83.0 79.3 79.6 84.2 84.0 83.1 79.5 80.6 84.4 83.0 82.9 80.2 80.6 84.8 82.9 81.2 80.1 81.0 84.3 83.7 82.5 79.8 80.4 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 81.2 82.5 84.9 82.6 83.3 81.4 82.3 84.6 83.6 83.9 81.3 83.0 84.4 83.1 84.2 81.4 83.2 84.1 83.4 83.8 81.0 83.4 84.0 83.5 83.9 81.1 83.7 83.9 83.9 83.8 81.3 83.6 83.3 83.4 83.8 81.2 83.7 84.2 83.5 84.4 81.4 83.6 84.2 83.6 84.7 81.9 84.1 83.7 83.2 84.7 82.1 84.3 83.6 83.5 85.0 82.3 84.9 83.6 83.7 84.7 81.3 82.6 84.6 83.1 83.8 81.2 83.4 84.0 83.6 83.8 81.3 83.6 83.9 83.5 84.3 82.1 84.4 83.6 83.5 84.8 81.5 83.5 84.0 83.4 84.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 84.6 82.1 82.3 79.3 73.7 84.1 82.1 82.4 78.6 73.6 83.6 81.9 82.4 78.1 74.1 83.5 81.7 82.6 77.7 74.2 83.6 82.0 82.5 76.9 74.5 82.6 81.5 82.3 76.2 75.2 81.8 81.8 81.8 75.7 74.9 83.1 81.9 81.4 75.2 75.0 82.4 81.3 81.5 74.7 75.0 82.6 82.1 80.9 74.1 74.9 82.1 82.2 80.7 73.6 75.2 82.0 82.6 80.1 73.5 74.9 84.1 82.0 82.4 78.7 73.8 83.2 81.8 82.5 76.9 74.7 82.4 81.6 81.6 75.2 75.0 82.2 82.3 80.6 73.7 75.0 83.0 81.9 81.7 76.1 74.6 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 75.5 77.0 79.7 80.9 80.3 75.8 77.4 80.2 80.8 80.8 75.7 76.9 80.1 80.8 80.6 75.1 77.3 80.0 81.0 80.7 75.2 77.9 80.2 80.8 80.7 75.3 77.2 80.4 81.1 80.6 75.6 77.7 80.3 81.1 80.7 75.6 77.9 80.4 81.2 80.6 76.0 77.9 78.9 80.8 80.7 76.1 78.7 79.7 80.6 80.2 76.8 78.8 80.5 80.3 80.5 76.7 79.4 80.9 80.9 80.6 75.6 77.1 80.0 80.8 80.6 75.2 77.5 80.2 81.0 80.6 75.7 77.9 79.9 81.1 80.7 76.5 79.0 80.4 80.6 80.4 75.8 77.9 80.1 80.9 80.6 2008 2009 80.5 71.3 80.2 70.2 79.8 79.2 78.9 78.7 78.6 77.6 74.5 75.5 74.6 72.7 80.1 78.9 76.9 74.3 77.6 N OTE Estimates from October 2008 through February 2009 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 20 Table 2 R ATES O F C HANGE IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY: 2004–08 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.8 -6.6 -.1 .0 .1 -.3 -.5 2.5 1.5 -.5 -3.2 7.4 1.6 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.3 -13.9 3.5 .9 4.0 4.4 2.5 1.2 -1.5 7.8 1.5 4.4 2.9 3.4 4.0 -5.8 4.2 -.4 1.7 1.1 .1 -3.2 -5.2 8.8 -5.6 -.7 1.2 1.6 .0 -4.8 5.8 .1 -.1 .8 .2 1.1 3.2 15.3 -5.1 -1.0 -.1 -.9 1.1 -.5 -4.2 -1.8 1.9 -5.8 -4.3 -17.2 -22.5 1.3 -19.9 -10.8 -.4 -1.6 -.9 -6.6 -2.1 -3.9 2.8 -.1 -.1 .2 -.4 4.9 .0 .6 -.3 -.3 .0 -4.1 -.4 -1.3 .0 .0 .1 -.2 .5 -3.2 -.1 -1.2 .2 .3 .1 -3.7 1.2 .5 .0 .0 -.1 .7 .2 -2.7 .5 2.0 -.4 -.5 -.3 -5.1 -1.9 2.6 .1 -.5 -1.0 .2 -.4 1.2 .9 .5 -1.3 -1.8 -.4 1.4 -4.2 -2.9 .0 -.4 -.3 .3 -.1 3.1 .7 -.2 -.3 .0 .7 .8 -1.4 .0 -.6 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 5.3 6.2 7.0 4.0 1.7 9.2 15.0 12.1 5.6 8.0 7.4 9.2 10.8 4.8 -1.9 2.3 -1.4 6.6 1.1 5.7 -8.5 -29.3 2.1 -7.5 -.4 .1 -1.0 .7 .0 -1.4 -1.1 -.9 -2.6 -.4 1.1 -.3 .1 -1.9 .4 .7 -.6 2.0 -2.3 -.6 .5 .0 -1.7 2.2 -.8 .7 Construction supplies Business supplies 2.0 2.9 7.3 3.0 -3.3 .4 -1.0 1.3 -11.4 -6.9 .3 -.3 -.2 .3 .2 .7 .6 .2 -.2 -.8 3.7 5.4 5.8 .0 10.3 5.0 4.8 -.8 3.8 9.6 -.5 .4 2.6 5.9 .6 12.7 3.0 -2.6 .5 -1.0 -7.3 -4.1 2.7 1.4 .4 -5.7 6.9 -1.8 3.1 -11.5 1.8 6.9 5.5 3.2 3.5 4.7 -2.2 10.3 3.2 1.8 -6.9 -1.4 4.3 2.5 -7.6 -11.6 -11.5 -19.6 -5.7 -12.9 -11.6 -13.7 -10.8 -15.4 .1 .0 .0 -.3 .0 -.8 .0 .5 .1 .0 1.0 .0 .1 .1 .5 .1 1.4 .1 -.4 .0 .2 -1.5 .0 .2 .1 -.7 .1 -2.4 .1 1.5 .7 .2 2.1 .3 -.1 .0 -.7 -.2 -2.1 .1 1.3 2.5 -.1 2.3 -.2 -.7 -1.0 -1.5 .2 -3.0 -.9 -.2 .8 .1 -.7 .1 321 327 331 332 333 334 3.6 3.7 3.8 1.4 4.4 8.3 1.8 5.2 9.7 3.8 4.0 7.0 11.8 5.5 -.7 6.1 8.3 15.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 -13.0 -3.6 -4.2 3.3 2.8 9.3 1.9 2.0 3.2 -7.5 -1.2 4.3 3.3 -1.0 11.0 -8.5 -8.5 -10.9 -20.7 -10.3 -26.0 -6.9 -10.8 -1.8 -.1 -.1 -.2 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 -.5 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 .4 -.1 .0 .1 .1 -.1 -.3 .3 -.1 .0 .1 .3 -2.9 -.4 -.4 -.6 -.7 -2.0 .2 -.1 -.3 -2.9 -.6 -.6 -.6 -.5 .1 -2.0 .4 -1.3 -2.2 335 3361–3 2.4 -1.8 1.7 .1 -.4 -6.2 3.3 -1.9 -2.9 -23.0 .1 -.4 -.1 .5 .1 -.3 -.4 .4 1.8 -.2 3364–9 337 339 2.9 3.4 1.8 10.9 1.6 6.4 5.6 -1.7 3.5 11.1 -2.6 2.9 -12.9 -17.8 -2.3 -.5 .0 .1 -.6 .0 -.2 1.1 -.1 .8 .1 -.9 1.3 -.4 .6 -.3 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 3.5 1.3 .5 -8.9 2.9 2.5 10.5 6.6 .9 .7 4.2 -.3 -1.4 -.5 .6 -3.7 -1.2 2.5 1.4 .2 -11.4 -.4 .5 2.4 2.3 5.1 -3.0 .8 1.9 -7.3 -.8 -2.1 -1.5 .3 .7 4.5 -6.0 -1.2 -12.6 -8.2 -10.9 -9.6 .5 -9.5 -11.9 .0 .0 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .1 .0 .0 .1 -.1 -.1 .2 .1 .0 .0 -.1 .1 -.2 .3 .4 .2 .4 .0 .1 .7 -.2 -.3 .8 1.3 .1 -.2 .7 -.7 .1 -.6 .4 .0 -.7 .1 -1.3 .0 -1.0 -1.3 1133,5111 1.4 -.3 -1.2 -1.8 -8.7 -.7 .2 3.3 -.5 .1 21 2211,2 2211 2212 -.9 1.8 2.4 -1.2 -4.9 2.0 3.5 -4.8 8.7 -.6 -1.1 1.4 .3 3.1 3.5 1.6 .7 -.4 -1.5 4.8 .0 .0 .1 -.1 .0 .0 .1 -.2 .5 .1 .1 -.1 .1 .1 .2 -.4 .0 -.6 -.4 -1.3 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 NOTE. Estimates for the fourth quarter of 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. 21 Table 3 R ATES O F C HANGE IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL : 2004–08 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.8 -6.6 -.1 .0 .1 -.3 -.5 1.3 4.0 4.5 8.4 2.3 -1.7 -1.8 1.7 .4 11.9 -2.6 -4.7 3.9 -.1 1.2 14.9 2.6 6.8 2.1 1.9 1.9 -.7 5.7 1.2 1.0 2.8 .1 6.9 -4.3 1.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .1 .0 .1 .0 .4 -.1 .0 -.1 .1 .4 -.4 -.1 -.6 .1 .0 -.2 .3 3341 3342 3.4 8.6 3.5 2.6 4.0 22.6 25.3 8.9 1.2 13.1 22.1 12.4 1.7 18.2 24.2 6.6 -9.1 -5.6 -12.1 10.7 -.1 -.7 1.8 1.9 .0 .2 -3.6 -4.8 .1 -4.2 4.2 -8.2 -.4 -4.1 7.4 -14.0 -.5 -5.2 2.0 2.0 334412–9 13.8 28.4 9.8 22.3 -12.4 -3.5 4.3 -5.7 -3.7 -12.1 3.0 2.7 .4 .7 -9.4 -.1 .1 .3 -.1 -.2 -1.8 -3.4 -1.0 .1 -1.4 -.6 -6.2 -7.6 -4.3 -1.9 -1.9 .3 -23.0 -30.3 -14.3 -.4 -.7 -.2 .5 .9 .0 -.3 -.6 .0 .4 .8 -.3 -.2 -.7 .3 3.5 2.1 5.1 1.9 1.9 5.3 3.0 3.2 6.6 7.4 2.7 .5 .9 .8 6.2 -3.4 -.6 1.4 .9 -1.1 2.3 -1.0 .4 2.4 -8.4 -4.0 -8.9 -11.6 -9.7 -11.0 .0 -.2 -.1 .2 -.3 .3 .0 .1 -.7 -.2 .3 -.1 .4 -.2 .4 .3 1.1 .7 -.1 -1.4 -.5 .9 .5 .6 -.2 .0 -.1 -.1 -.8 -.3 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing 2 Durable 2.7 3.2 3.1 1.6 2.5 4.8 1.2 .4 -.4 1.1 .9 1.4 -6.7 -8.7 -11.6 -.1 -.1 -.1 .0 .1 .1 .3 .3 .1 -.1 -.2 -.2 -.3 -.3 .0 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing 2 Durable 3.4 4.1 4.9 2.8 4.0 8.1 2.3 1.8 2.5 2.0 2.1 4.0 -5.8 -7.5 -9.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 -.4 -.4 -.5 -.8 -.5 -.6 -.6 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing 2 3.1 3.7 1.7 2.7 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 -5.8 -7.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .3 .3 -.2 -.2 -.3 -.3 Measure of non-energy material inputs to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 5.6 5.3 6.2 -.2 1.7 1.3 4.0 3.2 -10.5 -12.3 -.4 .4 .7 -.3 -1.1 1.0 -1.2 .9 -1.6 -.6 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 2.6 3.5 2.5 -6.5 3.5 5.2 7.6 -.8 3.3 1.2 2.5 1.1 -4.6 -7.9 -5.7 .0 -.2 .1 .0 .2 -.2 .3 .2 -.1 -.5 -.1 -.6 -.3 -1.0 .1 Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components 213111 Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 3361–3 3361 3363 NOTE. Estimates for the fourth quarter of 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. 2. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing - that have traditionally been considered to be a part of manufacturing and are included in the industrial sector. 22 Table 4 A NNUAL R ATES OF C HANGE FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : 2004–08 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total IP 2.5 3.3 2.3 1.5 -2.2 .0 .0 .1 -.2 -.4 M ARKET G ROUPS Consumer goods Durable Nondurable 1.2 1.4 1.2 2.7 .5 3.4 .4 -1.0 .9 1.0 .4 1.1 -2.7 -9.9 -.5 -.1 .3 -.2 -.1 .0 -.1 .1 .3 .1 -.7 .7 -1.1 -.5 -.1 -.5 5.3 -1.8 7.0 10.6 9.4 -2.1 2.7 3.7 -1.1 2.5 .1 -1.0 -.3 .0 -1.0 1.2 -.7 .0 .2 1.2 Construction supplies Business supplies 2.3 2.1 4.5 3.3 2.3 1.2 -1.9 1.3 -6.3 -2.9 .1 -.1 .0 -.1 .0 .6 .6 .7 -.1 -.7 Materials Non-energy Energy 3.1 4.5 -.4 2.4 4.0 -1.2 2.4 2.7 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.8 -1.8 -3.6 1.8 .1 .2 .0 .1 .1 .0 .1 .2 .0 .1 .0 .2 -.4 -.7 .2 I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing2 Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) 3.0 3.1 4.1 1.9 .8 4.0 4.2 5.5 2.8 -.3 2.5 2.7 4.4 .8 -1.0 1.4 1.5 2.1 1.0 -1.3 -3.1 -3.0 -3.2 -2.8 -5.7 .0 .0 .1 .0 .0 -.1 .0 .0 .0 -1.0 .1 -.1 -.2 .0 3.3 -.3 -.3 -.6 .0 .1 -.5 -.6 -.6 -.4 .2 Mining Utilities -.6 1.4 -1.3 2.1 3.3 -.6 .6 3.4 2.0 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 .5 .1 .2 -.1 Business equipment Defense and space equipment 1. The rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the annual averages of not seasonally adjusted industrial production indexes, rather than as the percent change between the fourth quarter of one year and the fourth quarter of the next. 2. See footnote 2 to table 3. Table 5 R ATES OF C HANGE IN C APACITY, BY I NDUSTRY G ROUPS : 2005–09 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 .8 1.5 2.0 1.1 -.9 .0 .2 .2 -.4 -.6 1.3 1.4 2.4 .5 -.2 1.4 1.4 2.0 .8 1.1 2.2 2.3 3.7 1.0 .6 1.3 1.3 2.0 .8 .9 -1.2 -1.2 -.6 -1.7 -.9 -.1 -.1 -.2 .1 .0 .1 .1 -.4 .5 .0 .3 .3 .4 .2 .0 -.5 -.5 -1.0 .1 .7 -.6 -.6 -.2 -1.0 .1 Mining Utilities -1.1 1.5 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 2.3 -.7 1.8 .0 .8 1.0 .5 -.4 .0 .4 .1 -1.5 .1 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing2 ex. selected high-technology industries 11.9 5.7 22.9 6.3 8.4 -1.2 -4.7 1.5 -11.2 1.2 .6 1.1 1.0 1.0 -1.6 .0 .3 .3 .2 -.7 -.9 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.4 2.0 2.4 1.2 .8 2.2 -1.2 -1.0 -.6 -.1 .2 -.3 .6 .1 .1 .0 -.1 .7 .7 -1.1 .4 -1.4 -.5 -.5 Total industry Manufacturing 2 Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. 2. See footnote 2 to table 3. 23 Table 6 R EVISED AND E ARLIER C APACITY U TILIZATION R ATES , BY I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Difference between revised and earlier rates (percentage points) Revised Rate 19722008 Ave. 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 80.9 80.4 80.6 80.4 74.3 .0 -.1 -.5 -.6 31–33 79.6 79.4 79.2 78.9 79.0 78.8 78.7 78.6 71.1 71.0 .0 .0 .0 -.1 -.6 -.6 -.6 -.7 321 327 331 332 333 334 77.8 79.2 77.7 80.5 77.5 78.6 78.3 77.9 89.2 78.1 83.3 77.6 79.8 75.3 77.3 75.2 72.6 80.4 79.5 81.8 78.4 77.0 68.6 70.5 84.1 80.5 79.8 75.4 67.3 54.8 63.1 62.0 74.2 70.2 69.9 .0 -.7 -5.3 -.6 -.4 1.3 .6 .0 -.7 -6.3 -.4 -.4 2.4 .4 -.8 -1.5 -7.5 .3 -.8 2.6 -2.5 -.5 -1.6 -5.9 -.9 -.6 1.4 .0 335 3361–3 83.2 76.7 83.1 76.4 82.2 70.3 82.8 70.2 78.4 53.8 -.1 -1.9 .2 -2.0 -.6 -2.1 .7 -2.0 3364–9 337 339 73.2 78.4 76.5 73.2 79.8 77.0 77.3 79.0 76.3 84.2 77.6 74.4 71.8 65.1 69.4 3.2 .8 .2 4.5 1.5 -.2 3.9 1.0 -.4 2.7 2.1 -2.4 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 81.5 81.5 81.6 79.5 87.6 83.4 86.1 78.2 83.6 80.1 80.3 78.5 75.2 84.4 78.3 88.4 75.7 85.2 80.6 79.4 73.1 76.8 84.2 79.7 88.8 79.0 81.9 80.5 79.7 71.3 77.7 82.6 78.4 87.1 78.5 84.1 75.0 77.4 65.6 72.2 74.4 72.7 85.7 70.3 72.7 .1 -.5 -1.2 5.7 .4 .6 1.1 .2 -.7 -.2 -.9 .6 4.9 -.1 1.1 -.1 -.1 -.4 -.5 -1.4 2.5 4.7 .0 1.9 -1.7 -.5 -.5 -1.0 -1.6 3.5 2.4 .5 3.5 -3.7 -1.0 -1.5 1133,5111 84.2 84.1 82.2 80.2 72.6 -1.2 1.5 1.1 .6 21 2211,2 87.6 86.8 85.4 85.3 90.8 83.7 89.8 85.2 89.5 83.0 -.1 -.4 -.5 -.7 -.1 -.7 -.4 -1.2 3341 3342 78.2 78.1 76.2 77.4 74.3 67.5 82.8 79.5 82.3 79.6 81.6 77.3 70.7 74.0 74.5 2.2 .0 5.7 2.9 2.0 8.9 -.9 3.0 -3.6 2.4 13.6 -5.1 334412–9 80.6 84.6 84.9 80.0 66.4 .4 -.3 -1.3 1.1 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 81.0 79.7 80.5 79.3 80.5 78.8 80.5 78.7 74.4 71.1 -.2 -.2 -.3 -.2 -.5 -.5 -.8 -.8 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.6 82.0 77.7 83.1 82.6 76.6 88.7 80.7 77.6 88.3 80.7 77.2 83.9 73.5 71.1 -.2 -.7 .7 -.4 -.7 .6 -.8 -.6 -.4 -1.6 -.6 -.6 Item Total industry 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components N OTE . Estimates for the fourth quarter of 2008 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 24 Table 7A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Manufacturing 1 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual2 -.9 .4 -.4 -2.3 .5 .0 -.6 2.7 .4 -.7 .4 -.8 -1.5 -2.1 .3 -.7 1.2 -3.0 .6 -.2 .2 -1.5 -.5 -.3 .1 -1.0 .2 -.1 -1.3 .7 .2 -.9 .3 1.6 -.5 -.3 .4 1.8 -1.0 -1.1 -.2 1.9 -1.1 -.6 .3 .3 -1.7 -.3 1.6 1.0 .7 -9.0 -.8 -18.6 2.6 -2.3 -.9 -7.8 .2 -4.1 .1 19.6 -9.8 -7.9 3.1 -3.5 1.1 -5.4 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 2.4 1.8 -.4 1.1 -.3 -.1 1.1 -.3 -.6 1.4 1.0 .5 .8 -.3 .1 1.1 .5 -.3 .4 .5 1.3 .3 .1 .1 .7 .7 .5 .2 -.3 .4 1.5 .4 -.5 .5 .7 .8 .1 .5 .3 .5 1.9 -.1 .1 .2 .6 1.1 .4 -.3 .4 1.6 .3 .3 .6 .5 .6 .2 .4 .4 .9 .6 9.4 12.7 .0 4.5 6.1 12.0 6.2 .8 -.1 6.7 15.0 3.6 .0 2.5 7.1 12.5 2.8 2.2 5.2 11.7 4.8 9.8 1.6 2.2 5.7 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 -.2 .8 -.1 -.8 -.6 .2 -.9 1.4 -.6 .9 .3 -.1 .5 -.7 1.0 .9 .1 -.3 .3 .5 -.1 -.9 .1 .7 .6 .1 .2 .2 1.1 .3 .1 -1.1 -.2 .2 .8 .1 .9 .2 .2 -.4 .3 -.2 .0 1.1 .1 .5 -.2 -.8 -.2 .6 .3 .2 -1.1 -.3 .4 .4 .1 -.8 -.1 -.2 2.6 1.8 4.6 -8.8 .6 4.5 -3.1 2.7 2.1 8.2 1.4 -2.9 .6 7.1 4.0 4.5 .6 -6.7 1.6 2.8 5.4 .8 .8 -2.0 3.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1.1 .2 .3 -.8 .1 .1 .1 -.1 1.7 1.4 -.2 1.3 .2 -.2 1.2 .6 .8 -.1 1.0 -.2 -.1 .7 .0 .7 .9 -.1 .3 .4 1.1 .7 .3 .4 -.6 .3 .4 -.1 .7 1.2 .6 1.7 .6 .3 .9 .7 .9 .8 1.0 -.1 -.1 .6 .4 .8 .1 .8 1.1 .5 1.1 .4 .9 .5 4.5 5.0 5.4 2.1 9.4 1.4 9.5 .6 9.1 7.6 1.3 5.9 3.2 7.8 10.8 6.8 9.8 4.2 5.8 11.1 3.5 5.9 5.2 4.8 8.5 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .8 .4 .1 -.6 .4 .0 .7 .3 -.6 .0 -.1 -.1 .7 -.3 .7 .6 .3 .6 -.2 .0 .6 .9 -.1 -.8 .7 -.7 -.4 .2 -.7 1.1 -.5 .5 .0 -.3 -.4 2.5 .8 -.5 -.7 .3 -.3 -.3 .5 -.3 .1 .9 1.6 -.4 -.7 -.5 .2 .7 -.3 -.2 .4 .5 .7 -.7 .2 -.5 6.0 5.0 5.3 -6.6 3.0 2.7 4.2 4.7 -5.5 5.2 3.0 3.8 -.5 -6.3 2.9 7.3 9.8 -2.8 -4.8 -.9 6.7 5.0 4.5 -4.1 -.1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .6 .1 .7 .7 -.6 .1 .7 .8 -.3 .3 .3 -.3 -.4 -.1 .4 -1.0 .5 .1 .5 .3 .1 .7 .5 -.3 .0 .5 -.8 .2 .3 .3 .1 .8 .0 .1 .6 -.2 .6 .3 .3 -.4 .8 -.2 -1.0 -.2 .4 .1 1.0 1.6 -.5 -.4 1.1 .0 .9 -.2 .4 -.2 .7 .1 1.2 .3 2.4 2.5 6.2 3.3 1.7 -2.0 2.9 1.9 1.0 3.2 2.3 3.6 .5 1.4 2.4 4.6 5.2 6.6 -.9 .1 1.3 3.0 4.0 2.5 1.4 2008 2009 -.3 -2.8 -.5 -.7 -.1 -.9 -.2 -.4 -.3 -.9 -3.7 .5 -2.2 -2.9 -1.2 -5.4 -9.3 -17.3 -3.1 IP (2002=100) 1979 1980 1981 1982 53.6 53.9 52.6 49.5 53.9 53.9 52.3 50.8 54.1 53.5 52.5 50.4 53.3 52.4 52.6 50.1 53.9 50.8 52.9 50.0 54.0 50.0 52.7 49.8 54.0 49.5 52.8 49.8 53.3 49.9 52.9 49.3 53.5 50.7 52.6 49.2 53.7 51.6 52.1 48.7 53.5 52.6 51.5 48.4 53.7 52.7 50.7 48.2 53.8 53.8 52.4 50.2 53.7 51.1 52.8 49.9 53.6 50.0 52.8 49.4 53.6 52.3 51.4 48.4 53.7 51.8 52.4 49.5 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 49.4 55.5 57.7 59.1 60.2 49.3 56.1 57.5 58.7 61.1 49.8 56.4 58.0 58.6 61.1 50.4 56.6 57.8 58.8 61.4 51.0 56.8 57.8 58.9 61.9 51.4 57.0 57.9 58.7 62.1 52.1 57.3 57.6 59.0 62.5 52.6 57.4 57.9 59.2 62.8 53.5 57.3 58.0 59.3 63.2 54.2 57.5 57.8 59.5 64.2 54.3 57.7 58.2 59.8 64.6 54.5 57.9 58.4 60.3 65.0 49.5 56.0 57.7 58.8 60.8 50.9 56.8 57.8 58.8 61.8 52.7 57.3 57.8 59.1 62.9 54.3 57.7 58.2 59.9 64.6 51.9 57.0 57.9 59.2 62.5 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 64.9 67.5 66.1 65.1 65.9 65.0 66.8 67.1 64.8 66.6 65.2 66.8 67.4 64.3 67.2 65.8 66.8 67.2 64.5 67.5 65.7 66.3 67.3 65.0 68.0 65.8 66.4 67.4 65.7 68.2 65.9 65.7 67.3 65.9 68.7 65.9 66.3 67.5 66.0 68.4 66.2 66.1 67.5 66.7 68.5 66.5 66.0 66.9 66.6 68.9 66.7 66.1 66.2 66.4 69.2 67.0 66.2 65.7 66.4 69.0 65.0 67.0 66.9 64.7 66.6 65.8 66.5 67.3 65.1 67.9 66.0 66.0 67.4 66.2 68.6 66.7 66.1 66.3 66.5 69.0 65.9 66.4 67.0 65.6 68.0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 69.8 71.9 77.8 79.0 85.1 69.9 72.0 77.8 80.3 86.3 69.8 73.0 77.9 80.2 87.3 70.1 73.6 77.8 81.0 87.1 70.0 74.1 77.9 81.5 87.9 69.9 74.3 78.2 82.4 88.5 70.2 74.6 77.7 82.6 88.8 70.1 75.1 78.7 83.1 90.4 70.5 75.4 79.4 83.7 91.2 71.1 76.1 79.3 83.6 91.7 71.4 76.7 79.3 84.3 92.7 71.8 77.6 79.7 85.0 93.2 69.8 72.3 77.8 79.8 86.3 70.0 74.0 78.0 81.6 87.8 70.3 75.1 78.6 83.1 90.1 71.4 76.8 79.4 84.3 92.5 70.4 74.5 78.5 82.2 89.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 93.9 97.7 103.3 102.8 98.5 93.9 98.4 103.6 102.2 98.5 93.8 98.3 104.3 101.9 99.2 94.4 98.6 104.9 101.6 99.2 94.9 99.5 104.8 100.8 99.9 94.3 99.2 105.0 100.1 100.9 93.8 99.6 105.0 99.8 100.5 96.1 100.4 104.5 99.1 100.8 95.8 100.1 104.9 98.8 100.9 96.6 101.7 104.5 98.1 100.4 96.8 102.4 104.2 97.9 100.8 97.3 103.1 103.5 98.1 100.3 93.9 98.1 103.7 102.3 98.8 94.5 99.1 104.9 100.9 100.0 95.2 100.0 104.8 99.2 100.7 96.9 102.4 104.1 98.0 100.5 95.1 99.9 104.4 100.1 100.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 100.9 102.6 107.2 111.1 111.4 101.1 103.3 108.0 110.8 111.7 101.3 103.0 107.6 110.6 112.2 100.4 103.5 107.7 111.2 112.5 100.5 104.2 108.2 110.9 112.5 101.0 103.4 108.4 111.3 112.9 101.1 104.3 108.3 111.3 113.5 100.8 104.9 108.7 111.7 113.0 101.6 104.7 107.6 111.5 113.4 101.7 105.8 109.3 110.9 112.9 102.8 105.7 110.2 110.8 113.3 102.5 106.4 110.3 112.1 113.7 101.1 103.0 107.6 110.9 111.7 100.6 103.7 108.1 111.1 112.6 101.2 104.6 108.2 111.5 113.3 102.3 106.0 110.0 111.3 113.3 101.3 104.3 108.5 111.2 112.7 2008 2009 113.4 98.0 112.8 97.4 112.7 111.7 111.5 111.0 110.8 109.7 105.7 106.2 103.9 100.9 113.0 111.4 108.7 103.7 109.2 Year IP (percent change) 1979 1980 1981 1982 N OTE Estimates from October 2008 through February 2009 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 25 Table 7B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing 1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1979 1980 1981 1982 63.0 65.0 67.0 69.1 63.2 65.1 67.2 69.2 63.4 65.3 67.4 69.4 63.5 65.4 67.6 69.5 63.7 65.6 67.8 69.7 63.9 65.7 67.9 69.8 64.0 65.9 68.1 69.9 64.2 66.1 68.3 70.0 64.4 66.3 68.5 70.1 64.5 66.4 68.6 70.2 64.7 66.6 68.8 70.3 64.8 66.8 68.9 70.3 63.2 65.1 67.2 69.2 63.7 65.6 67.8 69.7 64.2 66.1 68.3 70.0 64.7 66.6 68.8 70.3 63.9 65.9 68.0 69.8 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 70.4 70.9 73.0 75.0 76.2 70.4 71.0 73.2 75.1 76.4 70.5 71.1 73.4 75.1 76.6 70.5 71.3 73.6 75.2 76.8 70.5 71.4 73.8 75.3 76.9 70.6 71.6 74.0 75.4 77.1 70.6 71.7 74.2 75.4 77.3 70.6 71.9 74.4 75.5 77.5 70.6 72.1 74.5 75.6 77.7 70.7 72.3 74.7 75.8 77.8 70.8 72.5 74.8 75.9 77.9 70.8 72.8 74.9 76.0 78.1 70.4 71.0 73.2 75.1 76.4 70.5 71.4 73.8 75.3 76.9 70.6 71.9 74.4 75.5 77.5 70.8 72.5 74.8 75.9 77.9 70.6 71.7 74.0 75.4 77.2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 78.1 79.0 81.1 83.0 84.5 78.2 79.1 81.2 83.2 84.7 78.3 79.2 81.4 83.3 84.9 78.3 79.4 81.6 83.4 85.1 78.4 79.6 81.8 83.5 85.3 78.4 79.7 82.0 83.7 85.5 78.5 79.9 82.1 83.8 85.7 78.5 80.1 82.3 83.9 85.9 78.6 80.3 82.4 84.0 86.1 78.7 80.5 82.6 84.1 86.3 78.7 80.7 82.7 84.2 86.5 78.8 80.9 82.9 84.4 86.7 78.2 79.1 81.2 83.2 84.7 78.4 79.6 81.8 83.5 85.3 78.5 80.1 82.3 83.9 85.9 78.7 80.7 82.7 84.2 86.5 78.5 79.9 82.0 83.7 85.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 86.8 88.6 92.2 97.1 103.6 87.0 88.8 92.6 97.6 104.2 87.1 89.0 92.9 98.1 104.8 87.2 89.3 93.3 98.6 105.4 87.4 89.6 93.6 99.2 106.1 87.5 89.9 94.0 99.7 106.8 87.6 90.2 94.4 100.3 107.4 87.7 90.5 94.8 100.8 108.2 87.8 90.8 95.2 101.3 108.9 88.0 91.2 95.6 101.9 109.7 88.2 91.5 96.1 102.5 110.5 88.3 91.9 96.6 103.0 111.3 87.0 88.8 92.6 97.6 104.2 87.4 89.6 93.6 99.2 106.1 87.7 90.5 94.8 100.8 108.2 88.2 91.5 96.1 102.5 110.5 87.6 90.1 94.3 100.0 107.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 112.1 120.7 127.5 133.7 137.4 112.9 121.3 128.0 134.1 137.5 113.7 121.9 128.6 134.6 137.6 114.5 122.5 129.1 135.0 137.7 115.3 123.0 129.7 135.4 137.7 116.1 123.6 130.2 135.7 137.7 116.8 124.1 130.7 136.0 137.7 117.5 124.7 131.2 136.3 137.7 118.2 125.2 131.7 136.6 137.7 118.9 125.8 132.2 136.8 137.7 119.5 126.3 132.7 137.0 137.7 120.1 126.9 133.2 137.2 137.6 112.9 121.3 128.0 134.1 137.5 115.3 123.0 129.7 135.3 137.7 117.5 124.7 131.2 136.3 137.7 119.5 126.3 132.7 137.0 137.7 116.3 123.8 130.4 135.7 137.6 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 137.6 137.1 137.2 139.2 141.3 137.6 137.1 137.3 139.3 141.5 137.5 137.0 137.5 139.5 141.8 137.5 137.0 137.6 139.6 142.0 137.5 137.0 137.8 139.8 142.3 137.4 136.9 137.9 139.9 142.6 137.4 136.9 138.1 140.1 142.9 137.3 136.9 138.3 140.3 143.2 137.3 136.9 138.5 140.4 143.4 137.3 137.0 138.7 140.6 143.7 137.2 137.0 138.8 140.8 144.0 137.2 137.1 139.0 141.0 144.2 137.6 137.1 137.3 139.3 141.5 137.5 137.0 137.8 139.8 142.3 137.3 136.9 138.3 140.3 143.1 137.2 137.0 138.8 140.8 144.0 137.4 137.0 138.1 140.1 142.7 2008 2009 144.5 145.7 144.7 145.7 144.9 145.1 145.3 145.5 145.6 145.7 145.8 145.8 145.8 145.8 144.7 145.3 145.7 145.8 145.4 Utilization (percent) 1979 1980 1981 1982 85.0 83.0 78.4 71.6 85.2 82.8 77.8 73.4 85.3 82.0 77.8 72.7 83.8 80.1 77.9 72.0 84.6 77.5 78.1 71.7 84.5 76.1 77.6 71.4 84.4 75.1 77.5 71.2 83.1 75.5 77.5 70.5 83.1 76.5 76.9 70.1 83.2 77.7 76.0 69.3 82.8 78.9 74.9 68.8 82.8 78.9 73.5 68.6 85.2 82.6 78.0 72.6 84.3 77.9 77.9 71.7 83.5 75.7 77.3 70.6 82.9 78.5 74.8 68.9 84.0 78.7 77.0 70.9 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 70.2 78.2 79.0 78.8 79.0 70.1 79.0 78.6 78.3 79.9 70.7 79.2 79.0 78.0 79.8 71.5 79.5 78.5 78.2 80.0 72.4 79.5 78.3 78.2 80.4 72.8 79.7 78.3 77.9 80.5 73.9 79.9 77.7 78.2 80.8 74.4 79.8 77.9 78.3 81.1 75.8 79.4 77.8 78.4 81.4 76.6 79.5 77.5 78.6 82.5 76.8 79.5 77.8 78.8 82.9 76.9 79.6 78.0 79.4 83.3 70.3 78.8 78.9 78.3 79.6 72.2 79.6 78.3 78.1 80.3 74.7 79.7 77.8 78.3 81.1 76.8 79.6 77.8 78.9 82.9 73.5 79.4 78.2 78.4 81.0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.0 85.4 81.6 78.5 78.0 83.1 84.5 82.6 77.9 78.6 83.3 84.3 82.8 77.2 79.2 84.0 84.2 82.4 77.4 79.4 83.8 83.3 82.3 77.8 79.7 83.9 83.3 82.3 78.5 79.8 84.0 82.2 82.0 78.6 80.2 84.0 82.7 82.0 78.7 79.7 84.2 82.3 81.8 79.4 79.6 84.6 82.0 81.0 79.2 79.9 84.7 82.0 80.0 78.9 80.0 84.9 81.9 79.2 78.7 79.7 83.2 84.7 82.3 77.9 78.6 83.9 83.6 82.3 77.9 79.6 84.0 82.4 81.9 78.9 79.8 84.7 82.0 80.1 78.9 79.8 84.0 83.2 81.7 78.4 79.5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 80.4 81.2 84.4 81.4 82.1 80.3 81.1 84.0 82.3 82.8 80.1 82.0 83.9 81.7 83.3 80.4 82.4 83.5 82.1 82.6 80.2 82.7 83.2 82.2 82.9 80.0 82.7 83.2 82.6 82.9 80.1 82.7 82.4 82.4 82.7 79.9 83.0 83.0 82.5 83.5 80.3 83.0 83.4 82.6 83.7 80.8 83.5 82.9 82.1 83.6 81.0 83.8 82.5 82.3 83.9 81.2 84.5 82.5 82.5 83.7 80.2 81.4 84.1 81.8 82.8 80.2 82.6 83.3 82.3 82.8 80.1 82.9 82.9 82.5 83.3 81.0 83.9 82.6 82.3 83.7 80.4 82.7 83.2 82.2 83.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 83.8 80.9 81.0 76.9 71.7 83.2 81.1 80.9 76.2 71.7 82.5 80.6 81.1 75.7 72.1 82.4 80.5 81.3 75.3 72.1 82.3 80.9 80.8 74.5 72.5 81.2 80.3 80.7 73.8 73.3 80.3 80.3 80.3 73.4 73.0 81.8 80.5 79.6 72.7 73.2 81.0 79.9 79.6 72.3 73.3 81.3 80.8 79.0 71.7 72.9 81.0 81.0 78.5 71.4 73.2 81.0 81.3 77.7 71.5 72.9 83.2 80.9 81.0 76.3 71.8 82.0 80.6 80.9 74.5 72.6 81.0 80.3 79.9 72.8 73.1 81.1 81.0 78.4 71.5 73.0 81.8 80.7 80.1 73.8 72.7 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 73.3 74.8 78.1 79.8 78.8 73.5 75.4 78.7 79.5 78.9 73.7 75.2 78.3 79.3 79.1 73.0 75.6 78.3 79.6 79.2 73.1 76.1 78.5 79.3 79.1 73.5 75.5 78.6 79.5 79.1 73.6 76.2 78.4 79.5 79.4 73.4 76.6 78.6 79.6 78.9 74.0 76.5 77.7 79.4 79.1 74.1 77.2 78.8 78.9 78.6 74.9 77.2 79.4 78.7 78.7 74.8 77.6 79.4 79.5 78.8 73.5 75.1 78.3 79.6 79.0 73.2 75.7 78.5 79.5 79.1 73.7 76.4 78.2 79.5 79.1 74.6 77.3 79.2 79.0 78.7 73.7 76.2 78.6 79.4 79.0 2008 2009 78.5 67.3 78.0 66.8 77.8 77.0 76.7 76.3 76.1 75.3 72.5 72.8 71.3 69.2 78.1 76.7 74.6 71.1 75.1 N OTE Estimates from October 2008 through February 2009 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 26 Table 8A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries1 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual2 -.8 .4 -.7 -2.0 .5 .0 -.6 1.8 .2 -.4 .5 -.8 -1.1 -2.2 -.7 -1.0 .7 -2.6 .6 -.7 -.1 -1.3 .5 -.5 -.3 -.8 .7 -.5 -.9 .3 -.1 -.8 .0 1.7 -.7 -.5 .5 1.2 -.8 -.9 -.2 1.7 -1.1 -.4 .0 .5 -1.2 -.8 .6 .6 .1 -8.5 -1.3 -16.9 .1 -6.0 -2.7 -7.0 3.7 -6.7 .3 16.2 -9.5 -7.8 2.1 -3.6 .6 -6.0 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1.9 2.0 -.4 .5 -.5 -.7 .4 .6 -.7 1.2 .7 .4 .1 -.7 .2 1.1 .5 -.1 .1 .5 .7 .4 .1 .1 .6 .4 .3 .0 -.2 .4 1.4 .2 -.5 .3 .5 1.3 -.1 .3 -.2 .6 1.3 -.2 .5 .1 .2 .8 -.2 -.4 .4 1.4 .2 .3 .3 .4 .5 .4 .1 1.1 .8 .4 3.9 11.5 .9 2.4 4.5 8.2 5.1 1.0 -2.6 6.2 13.5 1.6 -.3 .5 6.0 9.6 -.2 2.5 4.1 9.1 1.8 7.9 1.0 .9 4.3 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 .0 .3 -.7 -.4 -.8 .4 -.4 .9 -.7 .7 .2 .3 .5 -.6 .8 .5 -.1 -.2 .2 .6 -.1 -.7 .1 1.0 .3 .2 .0 .2 1.0 -.1 .1 -1.1 -.2 .0 .8 .5 .9 .2 .0 -.6 -.4 -.3 .2 .9 .1 .5 -.2 -.8 -.2 .6 .2 .2 -1.3 -.2 .3 .4 .6 -.7 -.5 .0 3.1 1.9 2.3 -8.0 -2.0 2.8 -1.8 2.3 2.2 6.1 1.5 -3.3 .9 5.4 1.8 2.6 1.0 -6.7 .5 2.9 4.4 .6 .3 -2.0 1.9 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 .5 .4 .2 -1.0 -.1 .3 .0 -.2 1.4 .9 -.1 .9 -.1 -.3 .5 .3 .3 -.3 .7 -.4 -.5 .4 .0 .5 .3 .2 .6 .1 .7 .2 .4 .0 -.5 -.4 .2 -.1 .3 1.1 .4 1.1 .3 .0 .1 .4 .7 .7 .6 -.5 -.3 .6 .3 .4 .1 .8 .7 .5 .9 .2 .5 .1 3.2 4.4 3.0 -.4 5.1 .2 5.4 -1.4 6.2 2.2 1.5 3.2 1.4 2.2 6.0 5.1 5.6 .4 3.2 7.9 2.5 4.0 2.4 1.7 4.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .2 .2 -.4 -.7 .7 -.1 .1 .1 -.5 -.1 -.1 -.1 .1 -.3 .8 .2 -.1 .4 -.1 .2 .6 .6 -.1 -.7 .5 -.9 -.5 .0 -.5 .8 -.8 .3 -.5 -.3 -.4 2.0 .4 -.4 -.3 .0 -.6 -.5 .4 -.4 .1 .5 1.2 -.5 -.6 -.3 -.3 .3 -.2 -.4 .4 .0 .5 -.6 -.1 -.6 1.9 .8 .4 -6.3 2.8 1.0 .3 1.7 -4.4 5.4 -.3 1.2 -2.7 -4.6 1.3 2.0 5.8 -2.7 -4.9 -1.0 3.1 1.2 1.1 -4.0 -.1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .7 .2 .4 .0 -.5 .1 .5 .6 -.1 .8 -.3 -.6 -.2 .2 -.3 -1.0 .5 -.1 .3 .3 -.1 .8 .2 -.2 .0 .0 -.9 .3 .3 -.1 .2 .7 -.2 .2 .2 -.1 .2 .0 .1 .0 .6 -.1 -2.0 -.4 .3 -.1 .9 1.1 -.1 -.7 .8 .3 1.1 -.2 .5 -.1 .7 .6 .9 .3 1.5 2.0 5.0 3.1 1.7 -4.5 1.9 .9 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.5 -2.1 1.2 1.0 3.2 5.4 2.8 -.9 -.1 .2 1.8 2.6 1.5 .9 2008 2009 -.1 -2.0 -.4 -1.4 -.5 -.7 -.3 -.2 .0 -1.1 -4.1 1.6 -1.1 -2.3 -.6 -5.3 -9.0 -11.6 -2.8 IP (2002=100) 1979 1980 1981 1982 76.4 76.2 74.2 70.7 76.8 76.2 73.8 72.0 77.0 75.9 74.2 71.4 76.1 74.3 73.7 70.7 76.7 72.3 74.2 70.2 76.6 71.4 74.5 69.9 76.4 70.8 75.0 69.5 75.7 71.0 74.9 69.0 75.7 72.2 74.4 68.6 76.1 73.1 73.8 68.0 76.0 74.4 73.0 67.7 75.9 74.8 72.1 67.2 76.7 76.1 74.1 71.3 76.5 72.7 74.1 70.3 75.9 71.4 74.8 69.0 76.0 74.1 73.0 67.6 76.3 73.6 74.0 69.6 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 68.4 75.3 76.7 78.6 78.6 68.0 75.6 77.1 78.0 79.6 68.5 75.9 77.2 77.5 79.7 69.2 76.3 77.1 77.5 80.1 69.7 76.6 77.2 77.6 80.5 70.0 76.8 77.2 77.5 80.9 71.0 76.9 76.8 77.7 81.3 71.9 76.9 77.1 77.5 81.8 72.8 76.7 77.5 77.7 81.9 73.3 76.6 77.2 78.0 83.1 73.5 76.9 77.4 78.3 83.5 73.8 76.9 78.2 79.0 83.8 68.3 75.6 77.0 78.1 79.3 69.6 76.5 77.2 77.5 80.5 71.9 76.8 77.1 77.6 81.7 73.6 76.8 77.6 78.4 83.5 70.8 76.4 77.2 77.9 81.2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.8 86.1 84.9 83.6 83.6 84.2 85.7 85.6 82.9 84.2 84.3 86.0 86.0 82.4 84.8 84.7 85.9 85.9 82.6 85.3 84.6 85.3 86.0 83.4 85.6 84.7 85.3 86.2 84.2 85.5 84.8 84.4 86.0 84.2 86.1 85.2 85.2 86.2 84.3 85.6 84.9 84.9 86.3 85.0 85.7 85.3 84.7 85.7 84.9 86.3 85.5 84.9 84.6 84.7 86.5 85.8 85.4 83.9 84.3 86.5 84.1 85.9 85.5 83.0 84.2 84.7 85.5 86.0 83.4 85.4 85.0 84.8 86.2 84.5 85.8 85.5 85.0 84.7 84.6 86.4 84.8 85.3 85.6 83.9 85.5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 87.0 89.3 93.5 92.6 96.5 87.2 89.3 93.4 93.9 97.4 87.2 90.1 93.2 93.6 97.9 87.4 90.3 93.0 94.3 97.6 87.0 90.7 93.0 94.7 97.8 87.1 91.2 93.2 95.4 98.1 87.4 91.2 92.7 95.0 98.3 87.4 91.5 93.7 95.3 99.4 87.7 91.6 93.8 95.7 100.1 88.3 92.1 93.4 95.4 100.7 88.5 92.5 93.5 96.2 101.3 89.0 93.4 93.6 96.6 101.5 87.1 89.5 93.4 93.4 97.3 87.2 90.7 93.1 94.8 97.8 87.5 91.4 93.4 95.3 99.2 88.6 92.7 93.5 96.1 101.2 87.6 91.1 93.3 94.9 98.9 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 101.7 102.5 104.4 102.3 98.7 101.6 102.6 104.4 101.7 98.6 101.5 102.5 104.5 101.4 99.4 101.8 102.4 105.0 101.3 99.7 102.4 103.0 104.9 100.6 100.1 101.5 102.5 104.9 100.1 100.9 100.7 102.8 104.3 99.8 100.6 102.7 103.2 103.9 99.5 100.5 102.1 102.7 104.3 99.1 100.6 102.5 104.0 103.8 98.6 100.3 102.2 104.3 103.6 98.1 100.6 102.2 104.8 103.0 98.0 100.0 101.6 102.5 104.5 101.8 98.9 101.9 102.6 104.9 100.7 100.2 101.8 102.9 104.2 99.5 100.5 102.3 104.4 103.5 98.2 100.3 101.9 103.1 104.3 100.1 100.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 100.7 101.0 104.3 105.8 106.3 100.8 101.5 104.9 105.8 107.2 100.6 100.9 104.7 105.9 106.9 99.6 101.4 104.6 106.3 107.2 99.5 102.2 104.8 106.1 107.3 99.5 101.2 105.2 106.4 107.2 99.7 101.9 105.0 106.6 107.4 99.6 102.1 105.0 106.7 107.4 100.2 102.0 103.0 106.3 107.7 100.2 102.9 104.1 106.2 107.0 101.0 103.2 105.2 105.9 107.5 100.8 103.9 105.9 106.8 107.8 100.7 101.2 104.6 105.8 106.8 99.5 101.6 104.9 106.2 107.2 99.9 102.0 104.3 106.6 107.5 100.7 103.4 105.0 106.3 107.5 100.2 102.0 104.7 106.2 107.2 2008 2009 107.7 96.3 107.3 95.0 106.8 106.1 105.8 105.6 105.6 104.4 100.2 101.8 100.7 98.3 107.3 105.8 103.4 100.3 104.2 Year IP (percent change) 1979 1980 1981 1982 N OTE Estimates from October 2008 through February 2009 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 27 Table 8B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1979 1980 1981 1982 88.9 90.7 92.4 94.2 89.1 90.8 92.5 94.3 89.2 90.9 92.7 94.5 89.4 91.1 92.8 94.6 89.5 91.2 93.0 94.7 89.7 91.4 93.2 94.8 89.8 91.5 93.3 94.9 90.0 91.6 93.5 94.9 90.1 91.8 93.6 95.0 90.3 91.9 93.8 95.0 90.4 92.1 93.9 95.0 90.5 92.2 94.1 95.0 89.0 90.8 92.5 94.3 89.5 91.2 93.0 94.7 90.0 91.6 93.5 94.9 90.4 92.1 93.9 95.0 89.7 91.4 93.2 94.7 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 95.0 94.9 96.3 98.2 99.2 95.0 94.9 96.5 98.3 99.3 95.0 95.0 96.7 98.4 99.4 94.9 95.1 96.9 98.5 99.5 94.9 95.2 97.0 98.5 99.6 94.9 95.3 97.2 98.6 99.7 94.8 95.4 97.4 98.7 99.8 94.8 95.6 97.5 98.8 99.9 94.8 95.7 97.7 98.9 100.0 94.8 95.9 97.8 99.0 100.1 94.8 96.0 97.9 99.1 100.1 94.8 96.2 98.1 99.1 100.2 95.0 94.9 96.5 98.3 99.3 94.9 95.2 97.0 98.5 99.6 94.8 95.6 97.5 98.8 99.9 94.8 96.0 97.9 99.1 100.1 94.9 95.4 97.2 98.7 99.8 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 100.2 100.7 102.6 104.3 105.7 100.2 100.9 102.8 104.4 105.8 100.3 101.0 102.9 104.5 105.9 100.3 101.1 103.1 104.7 106.0 100.3 101.3 103.2 104.8 106.1 100.3 101.4 103.3 104.9 106.2 100.3 101.6 103.5 105.0 106.3 100.4 101.8 103.6 105.2 106.4 100.4 101.9 103.7 105.3 106.5 100.5 102.1 103.9 105.4 106.6 100.6 102.3 104.0 105.5 106.7 100.6 102.4 104.1 105.6 106.7 100.2 100.9 102.8 104.4 105.8 100.3 101.3 103.2 104.8 106.1 100.4 101.8 103.6 105.2 106.4 100.6 102.3 104.0 105.5 106.7 100.4 101.5 103.4 105.0 106.3 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 106.8 108.1 110.2 112.4 115.2 106.9 108.2 110.3 112.6 115.6 107.0 108.3 110.5 112.8 115.9 107.1 108.5 110.7 113.0 116.3 107.2 108.7 110.9 113.2 116.6 107.3 108.8 111.1 113.4 117.0 107.4 109.0 111.3 113.6 117.4 107.5 109.2 111.5 113.9 117.9 107.6 109.4 111.7 114.1 118.3 107.7 109.6 111.9 114.4 118.7 107.8 109.8 112.0 114.7 119.2 107.9 110.0 112.2 114.9 119.6 106.9 108.2 110.3 112.6 115.6 107.2 108.7 110.9 113.2 116.6 107.5 109.2 111.5 113.9 117.9 107.8 109.8 112.0 114.7 119.2 107.3 109.0 111.2 113.6 117.3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 120.1 124.7 127.6 129.5 131.3 120.5 125.0 127.8 129.7 131.4 120.9 125.3 128.0 129.8 131.5 121.4 125.6 128.1 130.0 131.5 121.8 125.8 128.3 130.1 131.6 122.2 126.1 128.5 130.3 131.6 122.6 126.4 128.6 130.5 131.6 123.0 126.6 128.8 130.6 131.5 123.4 126.8 128.9 130.8 131.5 123.7 127.0 129.1 130.9 131.4 124.1 127.2 129.2 131.1 131.3 124.4 127.4 129.4 131.2 131.2 120.5 125.0 127.8 129.7 131.4 121.8 125.8 128.3 130.1 131.6 123.0 126.6 128.8 130.6 131.5 124.1 127.2 129.2 131.0 131.3 122.3 126.2 128.5 130.4 131.4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 131.1 130.3 130.0 130.7 132.4 130.9 130.3 130.0 130.8 132.5 130.8 130.3 129.9 131.0 132.6 130.7 130.3 129.9 131.1 132.7 130.6 130.2 130.0 131.3 132.8 130.5 130.2 130.0 131.5 132.9 130.4 130.2 130.0 131.6 133.0 130.4 130.2 130.1 131.7 133.1 130.3 130.1 130.2 131.9 133.2 130.3 130.1 130.3 132.0 133.4 130.3 130.0 130.4 132.1 133.5 130.3 130.0 130.5 132.3 133.6 130.9 130.3 130.0 130.8 132.5 130.6 130.2 130.0 131.3 132.8 130.4 130.2 130.1 131.7 133.1 130.3 130.0 130.4 132.1 133.5 130.6 130.2 130.1 131.5 133.0 2008 2009 133.8 134.7 133.9 134.6 134.0 134.2 134.3 134.4 134.5 134.6 134.7 134.7 134.7 134.7 133.9 134.3 134.6 134.7 134.4 Utilization (percent) 1979 1980 1981 1982 85.9 84.0 80.4 75.0 86.2 83.9 79.8 76.3 86.3 83.5 80.1 75.6 85.2 81.6 79.4 74.8 85.7 79.3 79.7 74.1 85.4 78.1 80.0 73.7 85.0 77.4 80.4 73.3 84.2 77.5 80.2 72.7 84.1 78.7 79.5 72.3 84.3 79.5 78.7 71.6 84.0 80.8 77.7 71.3 83.9 81.1 76.7 70.7 86.2 83.8 80.1 75.6 85.4 79.7 79.7 74.2 84.4 77.9 80.0 72.7 84.1 80.5 77.7 71.2 85.0 80.5 79.4 73.4 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 72.0 79.4 79.6 80.1 79.2 71.6 79.6 79.9 79.4 80.1 72.1 79.9 79.8 78.8 80.1 72.9 80.2 79.6 78.7 80.4 73.5 80.5 79.5 78.8 80.8 73.8 80.6 79.4 78.5 81.1 74.9 80.6 78.9 78.7 81.4 75.8 80.5 79.0 78.5 81.8 76.8 80.2 79.3 78.5 81.9 77.4 79.9 78.9 78.8 83.0 77.5 80.1 79.0 79.1 83.4 77.9 80.0 79.8 79.6 83.7 71.9 79.6 79.7 79.4 79.8 73.4 80.4 79.5 78.7 80.8 75.8 80.4 79.1 78.6 81.7 77.6 80.0 79.2 79.2 83.4 74.7 80.1 79.4 79.0 81.4 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.6 85.4 82.7 80.1 79.0 84.0 85.0 83.3 79.4 79.6 84.1 85.2 83.6 78.9 80.1 84.5 85.0 83.3 78.9 80.5 84.3 84.2 83.3 79.6 80.6 84.5 84.1 83.4 80.3 80.5 84.5 83.1 83.1 80.2 81.0 84.9 83.7 83.2 80.1 80.5 84.5 83.3 83.2 80.8 80.5 84.9 83.0 82.5 80.5 80.9 85.0 83.0 81.3 80.3 81.1 85.3 83.4 80.6 79.8 81.1 83.9 85.2 83.2 79.5 79.6 84.4 84.4 83.3 79.6 80.5 84.7 83.3 83.2 80.4 80.7 85.1 83.1 81.4 80.2 81.0 84.5 84.0 82.8 79.9 80.4 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 81.4 82.6 84.9 82.4 83.8 81.6 82.5 84.6 83.4 84.3 81.4 83.1 84.4 83.0 84.5 81.6 83.2 84.0 83.4 83.9 81.1 83.4 83.9 83.7 83.9 81.2 83.8 83.8 84.1 83.8 81.4 83.7 83.2 83.6 83.7 81.3 83.8 84.0 83.7 84.3 81.5 83.7 84.0 83.8 84.6 82.0 84.1 83.5 83.4 84.8 82.1 84.3 83.4 83.9 85.0 82.4 84.9 83.4 84.1 84.8 81.5 82.8 84.6 82.9 84.2 81.3 83.5 83.9 83.7 83.9 81.4 83.7 83.8 83.7 84.2 82.2 84.4 83.4 83.8 84.9 81.6 83.6 83.9 83.5 84.3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 84.7 82.2 81.8 79.0 75.2 84.3 82.1 81.7 78.5 75.1 84.0 81.8 81.7 78.1 75.6 83.8 81.5 81.9 77.9 75.8 84.1 81.8 81.7 77.3 76.1 83.0 81.3 81.6 76.8 76.7 82.1 81.3 81.1 76.5 76.4 83.5 81.5 80.7 76.2 76.4 82.7 81.0 80.9 75.8 76.5 82.9 81.9 80.4 75.3 76.3 82.4 81.9 80.2 74.9 76.7 82.2 82.3 79.6 74.7 76.2 84.3 82.0 81.7 78.5 75.3 83.7 81.5 81.8 77.4 76.2 82.8 81.3 80.9 76.2 76.5 82.5 82.0 80.1 75.0 76.4 83.3 81.7 81.1 76.7 76.1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 76.8 77.6 80.2 81.0 80.3 77.0 77.9 80.7 80.8 80.9 76.9 77.4 80.6 80.9 80.6 76.2 77.9 80.5 81.0 80.8 76.2 78.5 80.7 80.8 80.8 76.2 77.7 80.9 81.0 80.7 76.5 78.3 80.7 81.0 80.7 76.4 78.4 80.7 81.0 80.7 76.9 78.4 79.1 80.6 80.8 76.9 79.1 79.9 80.4 80.2 77.5 79.4 80.7 80.2 80.6 77.4 79.9 81.1 80.8 80.7 76.9 77.6 80.5 80.9 80.6 76.2 78.0 80.7 80.9 80.7 76.6 78.4 80.2 80.9 80.7 77.3 79.5 80.5 80.5 80.5 76.7 78.4 80.5 80.8 80.6 2008 2009 80.5 71.5 80.2 70.6 79.7 79.1 78.8 78.6 78.5 77.6 74.4 75.5 74.7 73.0 80.1 78.8 76.8 74.4 77.5 N OTE Estimates from October 2008 through February 2009 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 28 Table 9A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual3 -1.1 .3 -.5 -2.4 .4 -.1 -.7 2.5 .4 -.9 .3 -.8 -1.6 -2.3 .2 -.8 1.2 -3.2 .5 -.3 .0 -1.6 -.5 -.3 .0 -1.1 .2 -.3 -1.5 .6 .0 -.8 .2 1.7 -.6 -.4 .3 1.8 -1.1 -1.2 -.4 1.9 -1.2 -.7 .2 .2 -1.8 -.5 .3 -.4 -.4 -10.2 -1.8 -20.1 1.5 -3.4 -2.5 -8.7 -.8 -5.0 -1.4 19.4 -11.1 -9.0 1.9 -4.9 .1 -6.6 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 2.4 1.8 -.5 1.2 -.4 -.2 1.0 -.2 -.6 1.4 .8 .3 .8 -.4 .1 1.0 .4 -.2 .4 .4 1.2 .1 .1 .1 .6 .6 .3 .1 -.2 .2 1.3 .3 -.4 .2 .6 .9 .0 .5 .2 .4 1.5 -.2 .2 .2 .5 1.1 .4 -.3 .3 1.5 .2 .2 .6 .4 .6 .2 .4 .4 .8 .5 8.4 11.6 -.3 4.8 4.9 10.7 4.6 1.7 -.3 5.7 13.8 2.1 .6 1.1 5.5 11.0 2.0 2.3 4.4 10.5 3.7 8.5 1.4 2.2 4.6 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 -.2 .8 -.2 -.8 -.9 .2 -1.0 1.4 -.7 .9 .2 .0 .4 -.8 .9 .8 .0 -.3 .4 .4 -.2 -.9 .1 .6 .5 .1 .2 .2 1.1 .1 .0 -1.3 -.2 .3 .8 .1 .9 .2 .1 -.5 .3 -.3 -.1 1.1 -.1 .5 -.3 -.9 -.2 .4 .3 .1 -1.2 -.3 .3 .4 .0 -.8 -.3 -.2 2.0 2.2 3.7 -9.6 -1.2 3.6 -3.4 2.0 1.5 6.9 .6 -4.0 .1 7.1 2.6 4.2 -.5 -7.5 1.2 1.4 4.4 .4 .0 -2.6 2.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1.1 .1 .2 -1.2 -.2 .0 .1 -.3 1.4 1.1 -.3 1.2 -.1 -.5 .9 .5 .5 -.4 1.0 -.7 -.2 .5 -.2 .5 .5 -.2 .2 .2 .8 .4 .3 .3 -.8 .0 .0 -.2 .5 .9 .3 1.4 .5 .1 .6 .5 .6 .8 .7 -.4 -.4 .5 .3 .5 -.1 .7 .9 .5 .9 .1 .7 .2 4.1 4.0 3.0 -1.9 6.2 .5 7.1 -2.5 7.0 2.7 .5 3.7 .3 4.2 6.5 5.7 6.9 .8 3.0 8.3 2.5 4.4 2.5 1.5 4.9 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .6 .0 -.4 -.6 .6 -.2 .4 -.1 -.5 -.1 -.3 -.4 .3 -.3 .8 .3 .0 .4 -.1 -.1 .5 .8 -.5 -.7 .6 -1.1 -.7 .1 -.5 1.0 -.9 .0 -.3 -.1 -.5 2.4 .7 -.8 -.7 .2 -.7 -.5 .4 -.3 .1 .7 1.5 -.5 -.7 -.5 -.1 .4 -.6 -.2 .3 .2 .4 -.9 .1 -.7 3.1 .8 .1 -7.4 3.5 .1 .2 .9 -4.5 4.6 -.6 .4 -3.4 -5.0 1.9 3.8 7.2 -4.7 -4.8 -1.7 3.5 1.4 .8 -4.9 .0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .6 -.1 .6 .7 -.7 -.1 .7 .7 -.4 .3 .1 -.3 -.5 -.2 .4 -1.1 .5 .0 .5 .2 .0 .8 .4 -.4 .0 .4 -.9 .1 .2 .2 -.1 .9 -.2 .0 .4 -.3 .6 .1 .2 -.5 .8 -.3 -1.3 -.3 .3 -.1 1.0 1.5 -.5 -.6 1.0 .0 .8 -.2 .3 -.3 .6 .0 1.2 .2 .7 1.5 5.5 2.6 1.5 -3.8 3.1 .9 .0 2.4 .8 3.3 -1.2 .3 1.0 3.6 4.9 5.1 -1.2 -1.2 .0 2.2 3.2 1.5 .7 2008 2009 -.3 -2.9 -.7 -.5 -.2 -1.0 -.2 -.4 -.2 -.9 -3.8 .7 -1.9 -2.8 -2.3 -6.4 -9.3 -16.3 -4.0 IP (2002=100) 1979 1980 1981 1982 75.2 74.6 72.0 67.0 75.5 74.6 71.5 68.7 75.8 73.9 71.8 68.1 74.6 72.2 71.9 67.6 75.5 69.9 72.3 67.4 75.5 68.8 71.9 67.1 75.4 68.0 72.0 66.9 74.3 68.5 72.0 66.4 74.4 69.6 71.6 66.1 74.6 70.9 70.8 65.3 74.3 72.2 69.9 64.9 74.4 72.4 68.6 64.6 75.5 74.4 71.8 67.9 75.2 70.3 72.0 67.3 74.7 68.7 71.9 66.5 74.4 71.8 69.8 64.9 75.0 71.3 71.3 66.7 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 66.1 73.5 75.5 77.8 78.6 66.0 74.2 75.4 77.3 79.7 66.6 74.5 76.0 77.0 79.7 67.3 74.7 75.8 77.3 80.0 68.1 74.8 75.9 77.4 80.5 68.5 75.1 76.0 77.3 80.7 69.4 75.4 75.7 77.4 81.2 70.0 75.3 76.1 77.6 81.5 71.1 75.2 76.3 77.7 81.9 71.9 75.5 76.1 77.9 83.1 72.1 75.6 76.5 78.3 83.6 72.2 75.9 76.8 78.9 84.0 66.3 74.1 75.6 77.4 79.3 68.0 74.9 75.9 77.3 80.4 70.2 75.3 76.0 77.5 81.5 72.0 75.7 76.5 78.4 83.6 69.1 75.0 76.0 77.7 81.2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.8 86.7 84.3 82.6 82.9 84.0 85.9 85.5 82.0 83.7 84.1 85.9 85.9 81.3 84.4 84.8 85.9 85.6 81.6 84.8 84.7 85.1 85.7 82.1 85.2 84.7 85.3 85.8 83.0 85.3 84.7 84.2 85.6 83.3 86.0 84.8 84.9 85.8 83.4 85.5 85.0 84.7 85.7 84.3 85.5 85.4 84.4 85.0 84.2 85.8 85.7 84.5 83.9 83.9 86.1 86.0 84.5 83.2 83.7 85.9 84.0 86.2 85.2 82.0 83.7 84.7 85.4 85.7 82.3 85.1 84.8 84.6 85.7 83.7 85.6 85.7 84.5 84.0 83.9 85.9 84.8 85.2 85.2 83.0 85.1 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 86.8 88.7 93.9 92.2 96.7 86.9 88.8 93.7 93.5 97.7 86.7 89.8 93.6 93.1 98.6 87.1 90.3 93.2 94.0 97.9 86.9 90.8 93.0 94.4 98.3 86.7 90.9 93.2 95.2 98.7 87.0 91.1 92.5 95.2 98.8 86.8 91.6 93.3 95.5 100.1 87.3 91.7 93.8 95.9 100.8 87.9 92.4 93.4 95.5 101.3 88.2 92.9 93.3 96.2 102.1 88.6 93.8 93.4 96.9 102.3 86.8 89.1 93.7 92.9 97.7 86.9 90.7 93.1 94.5 98.3 87.0 91.5 93.2 95.5 99.9 88.3 93.0 93.4 96.2 101.9 87.2 91.1 93.4 94.8 99.4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 102.9 103.6 105.7 102.3 98.8 102.7 104.0 105.6 101.8 98.8 102.4 103.6 105.9 101.4 99.5 102.8 103.5 106.3 101.3 99.4 103.3 104.3 105.8 100.6 100.0 102.1 103.6 105.8 100.1 101.0 101.2 103.6 105.5 99.9 100.5 103.6 104.3 104.7 99.3 100.7 102.9 103.8 105.1 99.0 100.7 103.5 105.3 104.5 98.2 100.2 103.4 105.7 103.9 98.1 100.5 103.6 106.1 103.0 98.2 99.9 102.7 103.7 105.7 101.8 99.0 102.7 103.8 106.0 100.7 100.1 102.6 103.9 105.1 99.4 100.6 103.5 105.7 103.8 98.2 100.2 102.9 104.3 105.2 100.0 100.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 100.4 100.5 104.7 107.4 106.9 100.3 101.2 105.5 106.9 107.1 100.4 100.9 105.0 106.7 107.5 99.3 101.4 105.0 107.3 107.8 99.3 102.2 105.4 106.8 107.7 99.7 101.3 105.6 107.0 107.9 99.6 102.2 105.4 107.0 108.4 99.2 102.8 105.5 107.3 107.8 100.0 102.4 104.2 107.0 108.1 99.9 103.5 105.8 106.5 107.5 100.9 103.5 106.6 106.3 107.8 100.6 104.1 106.6 107.6 108.0 100.4 100.8 105.1 107.0 107.2 99.4 101.6 105.3 107.0 107.8 99.6 102.5 105.0 107.1 108.1 100.5 103.7 106.3 106.8 107.7 100.0 102.2 105.4 107.0 107.7 2008 2009 107.7 93.1 107.0 92.7 106.7 105.6 105.4 105.0 104.8 103.8 99.9 100.6 98.6 95.9 107.1 105.4 102.8 98.4 103.4 Year IP (percent change) 1979 1980 1981 1982 N OTE Estimates from October 2008 through February 2009 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 29 Table 9B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1979 1980 1981 1982 88.3 90.3 92.4 94.2 88.5 90.4 92.5 94.3 88.7 90.6 92.7 94.4 88.8 90.8 92.9 94.5 89.0 90.9 93.1 94.6 89.2 91.1 93.2 94.6 89.3 91.3 93.4 94.7 89.5 91.4 93.5 94.8 89.7 91.6 93.7 94.8 89.8 91.8 93.8 94.8 90.0 92.0 93.9 94.8 90.1 92.2 94.0 94.8 88.5 90.4 92.5 94.3 89.0 90.9 93.1 94.6 89.5 91.4 93.5 94.8 90.0 92.0 93.9 94.8 89.2 91.2 93.3 94.6 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 94.8 94.5 96.1 98.0 99.2 94.8 94.6 96.3 98.1 99.4 94.8 94.6 96.5 98.2 99.5 94.7 94.7 96.7 98.3 99.7 94.7 94.8 96.9 98.4 99.8 94.6 94.9 97.1 98.4 99.9 94.6 95.1 97.3 98.5 100.1 94.5 95.2 97.4 98.6 100.2 94.5 95.4 97.6 98.7 100.3 94.5 95.6 97.7 98.8 100.4 94.5 95.7 97.8 98.9 100.4 94.5 95.9 97.9 99.1 100.5 94.8 94.6 96.3 98.1 99.4 94.7 94.8 96.9 98.4 99.8 94.5 95.2 97.4 98.6 100.2 94.5 95.7 97.8 99.0 100.4 94.6 95.1 97.1 98.5 99.9 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 100.5 101.0 103.1 104.9 106.5 100.6 101.2 103.2 105.1 106.7 100.6 101.3 103.4 105.2 106.8 100.6 101.5 103.6 105.4 106.9 100.6 101.6 103.7 105.5 107.0 100.6 101.8 103.9 105.7 107.1 100.6 102.0 104.0 105.8 107.2 100.7 102.2 104.2 105.9 107.3 100.7 102.4 104.3 106.1 107.4 100.8 102.5 104.5 106.2 107.5 100.8 102.7 104.6 106.3 107.7 100.9 102.9 104.8 106.4 107.8 100.5 101.2 103.2 105.1 106.7 100.6 101.6 103.7 105.5 107.0 100.7 102.2 104.2 105.9 107.3 100.8 102.7 104.6 106.3 107.7 100.7 101.9 103.9 105.7 107.2 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 107.9 109.2 111.3 113.9 117.2 108.0 109.3 111.5 114.1 117.6 108.1 109.5 111.7 114.4 118.0 108.2 109.6 111.9 114.6 118.4 108.3 109.8 112.1 114.8 118.8 108.4 109.9 112.3 115.1 119.3 108.5 110.1 112.6 115.4 119.7 108.6 110.3 112.8 115.6 120.2 108.7 110.5 113.0 115.9 120.7 108.8 110.7 113.2 116.2 121.2 108.9 110.9 113.4 116.5 121.7 109.0 111.1 113.7 116.9 122.3 108.0 109.3 111.5 114.1 117.6 108.3 109.8 112.1 114.8 118.8 108.6 110.3 112.8 115.6 120.2 108.9 110.9 113.4 116.5 121.7 108.4 110.1 112.5 115.3 119.6 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 122.8 128.1 131.7 134.1 135.0 123.3 128.5 131.9 134.2 135.0 123.8 128.8 132.2 134.3 135.0 124.3 129.1 132.4 134.5 135.0 124.8 129.5 132.6 134.6 134.9 125.2 129.8 132.8 134.7 134.9 125.7 130.1 133.0 134.8 134.8 126.1 130.4 133.2 134.8 134.8 126.6 130.6 133.4 134.9 134.7 127.0 130.9 133.6 134.9 134.6 127.4 131.2 133.8 135.0 134.5 127.7 131.4 133.9 135.0 134.4 123.3 128.5 131.9 134.2 135.0 124.8 129.5 132.6 134.6 134.9 126.1 130.4 133.2 134.8 134.7 127.4 131.2 133.7 135.0 134.5 125.4 129.9 132.9 134.6 134.8 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 134.3 133.4 133.2 134.3 135.8 134.2 133.4 133.3 134.5 135.9 134.1 133.3 133.3 134.6 136.0 134.0 133.3 133.4 134.7 136.1 133.9 133.3 133.4 134.9 136.2 133.8 133.2 133.5 135.0 136.3 133.7 133.2 133.6 135.1 136.4 133.7 133.2 133.7 135.3 136.5 133.6 133.2 133.8 135.4 136.7 133.5 133.2 133.9 135.5 136.8 133.5 133.2 134.1 135.6 137.0 133.4 133.2 134.2 135.7 137.1 134.2 133.4 133.3 134.5 135.9 133.9 133.3 133.4 134.9 136.2 133.7 133.2 133.7 135.3 136.5 133.5 133.2 134.1 135.6 137.0 133.8 133.3 133.6 135.0 136.4 2008 2009 137.3 138.2 137.5 138.1 137.6 137.8 137.9 138.1 138.2 138.3 138.3 138.4 138.3 138.3 137.5 137.9 138.3 138.3 138.0 Utilization (percent) 1979 1980 1981 1982 85.2 82.7 77.9 71.1 85.4 82.4 77.3 72.9 85.5 81.6 77.4 72.2 84.0 79.6 77.4 71.5 84.8 76.9 77.7 71.2 84.6 75.5 77.1 70.9 84.4 74.6 77.1 70.7 83.0 74.9 77.0 70.1 83.0 76.0 76.4 69.7 83.1 77.2 75.4 68.9 82.6 78.5 74.4 68.4 82.6 78.5 73.0 68.1 85.4 82.2 77.5 72.1 84.5 77.3 77.4 71.2 83.5 75.1 76.8 70.2 82.7 78.1 74.3 68.5 84.0 78.2 76.5 70.5 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 69.8 77.8 78.6 79.3 79.2 69.7 78.5 78.2 78.8 80.2 70.3 78.7 78.7 78.4 80.1 71.0 78.9 78.4 78.7 80.3 71.9 78.9 78.4 78.7 80.7 72.4 79.1 78.3 78.5 80.8 73.4 79.3 77.9 78.5 81.1 74.1 79.1 78.1 78.6 81.3 75.3 78.8 78.2 78.7 81.7 76.1 79.0 77.8 78.9 82.8 76.3 79.0 78.2 79.1 83.2 76.4 79.1 78.5 79.6 83.6 69.9 78.3 78.5 78.9 79.8 71.8 79.0 78.4 78.6 80.6 74.3 79.1 78.1 78.6 81.4 76.3 79.0 78.2 79.2 83.2 73.1 78.9 78.3 78.8 81.3 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.4 85.9 81.8 78.7 77.8 83.5 84.9 82.9 78.0 78.4 83.7 84.8 83.0 77.3 79.1 84.3 84.7 82.6 77.4 79.3 84.2 83.8 82.6 77.8 79.6 84.2 83.7 82.6 78.6 79.7 84.2 82.5 82.3 78.7 80.2 84.2 83.1 82.3 78.7 79.7 84.4 82.7 82.2 79.5 79.5 84.8 82.3 81.3 79.3 79.8 85.0 82.3 80.2 78.9 80.0 85.2 82.1 79.4 78.6 79.7 83.5 85.2 82.6 78.0 78.5 84.2 84.1 82.6 78.0 79.5 84.3 82.8 82.2 79.0 79.8 85.0 82.2 80.3 78.9 79.8 84.3 83.6 81.9 78.5 79.4 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 80.5 81.3 84.4 81.0 82.5 80.5 81.2 84.0 81.9 83.1 80.2 82.1 83.8 81.4 83.6 80.5 82.4 83.3 82.0 82.7 80.3 82.7 83.0 82.2 82.8 80.0 82.7 83.0 82.7 82.8 80.2 82.8 82.2 82.5 82.5 80.0 83.1 82.7 82.6 83.3 80.3 83.0 83.1 82.7 83.5 80.8 83.5 82.5 82.2 83.5 81.0 83.8 82.3 82.6 83.9 81.3 84.4 82.2 82.9 83.7 80.4 81.5 84.1 81.4 83.1 80.3 82.6 83.1 82.3 82.7 80.2 83.0 82.6 82.6 83.1 81.0 83.9 82.3 82.6 83.7 80.5 82.7 83.0 82.2 83.1 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 83.8 80.9 80.3 76.3 73.2 83.3 81.0 80.0 75.8 73.1 82.7 80.4 80.2 75.5 73.7 82.7 80.2 80.3 75.4 73.7 82.8 80.6 79.8 74.8 74.1 81.5 79.8 79.7 74.3 74.9 80.5 79.7 79.3 74.2 74.5 82.1 80.0 78.6 73.6 74.7 81.3 79.4 78.8 73.4 74.8 81.5 80.4 78.3 72.8 74.5 81.2 80.6 77.7 72.7 74.8 81.1 80.7 76.9 72.8 74.3 83.3 80.8 80.2 75.9 73.3 82.3 80.2 79.9 74.8 74.2 81.3 79.7 78.9 73.7 74.7 81.3 80.6 77.6 72.7 74.5 82.1 80.3 79.1 74.3 74.2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 74.8 75.3 78.6 79.9 78.7 74.8 75.9 79.2 79.5 78.8 74.9 75.7 78.7 79.3 79.1 74.1 76.1 78.7 79.6 79.2 74.1 76.7 79.0 79.2 79.1 74.5 76.0 79.1 79.3 79.2 74.5 76.7 78.9 79.2 79.4 74.3 77.1 78.9 79.3 78.9 74.9 76.9 77.9 79.0 79.1 74.8 77.7 79.0 78.6 78.5 75.6 77.7 79.5 78.4 78.7 75.4 78.2 79.4 79.3 78.8 74.8 75.6 78.8 79.6 78.9 74.2 76.3 78.9 79.4 79.2 74.5 76.9 78.5 79.2 79.2 75.3 77.8 79.3 78.8 78.7 74.7 76.7 78.9 79.2 79.0 2008 2009 78.4 67.4 77.8 67.1 77.5 76.6 76.4 76.1 75.8 75.1 72.2 72.7 71.3 69.3 77.9 76.4 74.4 71.1 74.9 N OTE Estimates from October 2008 through February 2009 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 30 Table 10 A NNUAL P ROPORTIONS IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Item 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 59.0 30.0 8.1 4.0 .4 1.4 2.3 58.9 31.0 8.9 4.7 .4 1.4 2.4 58.2 31.0 8.7 4.6 .4 1.3 2.3 57.0 30.2 8.0 4.0 .4 1.3 2.3 56.9 29.8 7.4 3.6 .4 1.3 2.2 56.8 29.3 7.1 3.3 .4 1.2 2.2 56.2 29.2 6.8 3.2 .3 1.1 2.1 57.0 29.5 6.3 2.9 .3 1.0 2.1 21.8 18.0 9.8 1.1 4.6 2.1 3.8 22.1 18.2 9.6 .8 5.2 2.1 3.9 22.2 18.0 9.6 .7 5.2 2.0 4.2 22.2 17.3 9.3 .6 5.1 1.9 4.9 22.4 16.7 8.9 .5 5.0 1.8 5.7 22.2 16.4 8.7 .4 5.1 1.7 5.8 22.4 16.2 8.8 .4 4.8 1.7 6.2 23.2 17.1 9.4 .4 5.1 1.7 6.1 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 11.2 2.0 3.9 5.3 1.6 10.2 1.8 3.2 5.2 1.6 9.6 1.6 3.0 5.0 1.6 9.4 1.6 3.0 4.9 1.5 9.3 1.6 2.8 4.8 1.6 9.6 1.8 2.9 5.0 1.5 9.3 1.6 2.8 4.9 1.5 9.5 1.5 2.9 5.0 1.7 Construction supplies Business supplies 4.8 11.0 4.9 10.8 4.9 10.8 4.8 10.6 4.9 10.6 5.0 10.5 4.9 10.5 4.9 10.7 41.0 30.3 19.2 3.8 7.2 8.2 11.1 .8 2.8 4.1 10.7 41.1 30.1 18.7 4.0 6.5 8.1 11.4 .8 2.8 4.4 11.0 41.8 29.6 18.3 3.8 6.4 8.1 11.3 .7 2.5 4.5 12.2 43.0 29.7 18.2 3.6 6.3 8.3 11.4 .7 2.4 5.1 13.3 43.1 29.3 17.8 3.3 6.2 8.3 11.5 .7 2.3 5.3 13.8 43.2 29.3 17.7 3.2 6.0 8.5 11.6 .6 2.3 5.5 13.8 43.8 29.2 17.2 2.9 5.8 8.4 12.0 .5 2.3 5.9 14.6 43.0 29.0 16.8 2.7 5.9 8.2 12.2 .5 2.3 5.9 14.0 321 327 331 332 333 334 83.5 78.6 44.0 1.4 2.2 2.3 5.8 5.5 9.3 83.2 78.5 43.2 1.5 2.2 2.3 5.7 5.3 8.1 81.7 77.2 42.0 1.6 2.2 2.3 5.5 5.0 7.9 80.5 76.2 40.7 1.6 2.2 2.7 5.3 4.9 7.8 79.5 75.5 39.7 1.5 2.3 2.6 5.3 4.9 7.4 79.3 75.4 39.6 1.4 2.3 2.8 5.5 5.0 7.2 78.6 74.8 38.4 1.2 2.2 2.7 5.6 4.9 6.7 79.0 75.3 38.1 1.0 2.2 2.5 5.9 4.9 6.9 335 3361–3 2.4 6.5 2.2 7.4 2.0 7.2 1.9 6.4 1.9 5.9 1.9 5.5 1.9 5.1 2.0 4.5 3364–9 337 339 3.7 1.7 3.1 3.5 1.8 3.3 3.3 1.7 3.3 3.1 1.6 3.1 3.2 1.6 3.1 3.2 1.5 3.1 3.4 1.4 3.1 3.5 1.3 3.3 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.6 11.3 1.3 1.2 3.1 2.6 1.7 9.7 3.7 35.3 11.3 1.4 1.0 3.1 2.4 1.8 10.7 3.8 35.2 11.4 1.3 .9 2.9 2.2 2.1 10.8 3.6 35.5 10.9 1.2 .7 2.7 2.1 3.2 11.2 3.4 35.8 10.6 1.2 .6 2.6 2.0 4.2 11.3 3.3 35.7 10.4 1.1 .6 2.6 1.9 4.5 11.4 3.2 36.5 10.7 .9 .6 2.5 1.9 5.0 11.7 3.1 37.2 11.5 .9 .6 2.6 1.8 4.7 12.1 3.1 1133,5111 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 21 2211,2 2211 2212 7.1 9.4 8.0 1.4 7.2 9.6 8.2 1.4 8.5 9.8 8.2 1.6 9.8 9.7 8.0 1.7 10.7 9.8 8.0 1.8 11.0 9.7 8.0 1.6 11.7 9.7 8.1 1.7 10.6 10.4 8.6 1.7 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 NOTE. The IP proportion data are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall IP change between the reference year and the following year. For example, a 1 percent increase in durable goods manufacturing between 2008 and 2009 would account for a 0.381 percent increase in total IP. 31 Table 11 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY Seasonally adjusted 2002=100 Industrial production 2008 Sept.r Dec.r 2009 Jan.r Oct.r Nov.r Total index Previous estimates 104.8 105.3 106.3 107.0 104.9 105.7 102.4 103.2 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 106.3 101.4 117.7 102.6 99.1 104.3 107.0 103.0 114.9 102.3 97.8 107.1 106.8 102.1 117.9 99.9 93.7 105.1 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 105.7 106.6 96.4 105.7 106.2 107.3 103.5 106.8 103.9 104.9 105.2 108.9 Feb.r Oct.r 100.3 101.2 98.8 99.7 -4.0 -4.1 1.4 1.7 -1.3 -1.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.0 -1.9 -1.5 -1.4 -11.8 -11.2 105.9 100.4 120.2 96.7 89.7 101.2 103.3 98.4 115.5 95.3 86.3 99.3 102.2 97.8 113.7 93.1 84.7 97.7 -2.4 -1.3 -6.7 -2.1 -2.1 -5.9 .6 1.6 -2.4 -.3 -1.3 2.7 -.2 -.9 2.6 -2.4 -4.2 -1.9 -.9 -1.7 2.0 -3.2 -4.2 -3.7 -2.4 -1.9 -3.9 -1.4 -3.8 -1.9 -1.1 -.6 -1.6 -2.4 -1.8 -1.6 -9.2 -8.3 -12.4 -13.8 -18.5 -13.6 100.9 101.8 103.2 109.4 98.0 99.1 101.9 112.3 97.4 98.3 101.2 103.8 -3.7 -3.7 -9.3 1.4 .5 .6 7.3 1.0 -2.2 -2.2 1.6 2.0 -2.9 -2.9 -1.9 .4 -2.8 -2.7 -1.2 2.6 -.7 -.7 -.7 -7.6 -13.7 -13.1 -3.7 -6.9 Percent of capacity 200102 2008 2008 low Feb. Sept.r Average 19722008 198889 high 199091 low 199495 high Total industry Previous estimates 80.9 80.9 85.1 85.0 78.7 78.6 84.9 85.1 73.5 73.6 80.2 80.7 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates 79.6 79.6 85.4 85.4 77.2 77.1 84.5 84.6 71.4 71.5 Mining Utilities 87.6 86.8 86.5 92.8 83.8 84.2 89.1 93.3 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.6 82.0 77.7 88.3 86.5 83.0 84.7 77.9 77.2 89.9 87.9 80.3 Capacity utilization Percent change 2009 Nov.r Dec.r Jan.r 2008 Sept.r Feb.r Feb. ’08 to Feb. ’09 Capacity growth Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 2009 Jan.r Feb.r Feb. ’08 to Feb. ’09 74.5 75.0 75.5 76.2 74.6 75.2 72.7 73.3 71.3 71.9 70.2 70.9 .6 1.1 78.0 78.5 72.5 73.2 72.8 73.6 71.3 71.9 69.2 69.7 67.3 67.9 66.8 67.4 .7 1.2 84.9 84.2 91.2 86.7 83.1 81.2 89.1 81.9 90.5 83.4 88.8 83.6 87.7 85.7 87.0 79.1 .9 2.1 81.7 74.3 70.0 88.9 80.3 76.6 78.7 74.9 72.2 84.8 75.5 71.6 84.7 73.7 71.3 82.3 71.3 70.4 81.4 69.9 68.6 81.2 67.8 68.5 .8 .3 1.5 r Revised. p Preliminary. Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS. 32 E XPLANATORY N OTE output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. A Im A Im−1 s P P I p I p P m m−1 × P m m = Im−1 pm−1 Im−1 pm The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the monthly G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 8 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 8/10 percentage point (0.08 x 10% = 0.8%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2002. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries-logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing-that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 312 individual series based on the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html). Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and, beginning with the release of March 2008 data, subject to revision in each of the subsequent five months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 72 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to 86 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 95 percent in the third month, 98 percent in the fourth month, 99 percent in the fifth month, and 99 percent in the sixth month. Data availability by data type, based on the six-month reporting window used in 2008, is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2008) Month of estimate Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Physical product 30 44 54 56 57 57 Production-worker hours 42 42 42 42 42 42 IP data received 72 86 95 98 99 99 IP data estimated 28 14 5 2 1 1 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (30 percent out of total of 57 percent). Of the 30 percent, about two-thirds (19 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of the first month of a quarter. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through February 2009; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least September 2008. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see The Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, 33 without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.26 percent during the 1987–2008 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–2008 period. In most cases (about 85 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the annual Survey of Plant Capacity (the primary source of factory operating rates through 2006, after which it was discontinued) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve (now based on the QSPC) roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the Census utilization surveys. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. C APACITY U TILIZATION Perspective. Over the 1972–2007 period, the average total industry utilization rate was 81.0 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate was 79.7 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES References. The annual revision published in March 2008 is described in an article published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 94, pp. A41–A60. A summary of the annual revision that incorporated back to 1972 production and capacity indexes reclassified according to the North American Industry Classification System is available in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 89 (April 2003), pp.151-176. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/CapitalStockDocLatest.pdf. Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 87 detailed industries (69 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 25 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity (QSPC); these industries account for a bit less than 70 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 5 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/CapNotes.html). Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2009: January 16, February 18, March 16, April 15, May 15, June 16, July 15, August 14, September 16, October 16, November 17, and December 15. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production 34
