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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EDT) June 15, 2001 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production contracted 0.8 percent in May, to 143.1 percent of its 1992 average. After eight consecutive months of decline, industrial production in May was nearly 3 percent below its level in May 2000. Manufacturing output declined 0.7 percent. Excluding motor vehicles and parts production, manufacturing dropped 0.9 percent; the sector has declined more than 4-1/4 percent since November 2000. Output at utilities fell 1.8 percent, and production in mining weakened 0.4 percent after a smaller decline in April. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry fell 3/4 percentage point, to 77.4 percent, more than 4-1/2 percentage points below its 1967–2000 average. Market Groups Despite an upturn in the output of automotive products, the output of consumer goods dropped 0.8 percent in May, after a slightly smaller decline in April. The recovery from the automotive downturn that began in October of last year has been uneven, and production in May was still almost 6 percent below the level posted a year earlier. The output (over) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY Seasonally adjusted 1992=100 Percent change Industrial production 2001 Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayp Total index Previous estimates 145.4 145.5 145.1 145.3 144.2 144.9 Major market groups Products, total Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Materials 134.6 122.3 195.3 139.9 165.0 134.7 122.5 195.9 140.7 163.9 Major industry groups Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Mining Utilities 150.7 191.1 114.0 101.4 121.8 150.1 191.4 112.6 102.9 123.0 Capacity utilization Total industry Manufacturing Advanced processing Primary processing Mining Utilities Average 1967–2000 1982 low 2001 Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayp 143.1 –.4 –.4 –.2 –.1 –.6 –.3 –.8 –2.8 133.7 121.7 193.1 139.2 163.2 132.7 120.8 191.7 138.8 161.8 –.3 .5 –1.0 –.5 –.5 .0 .1 .3 .5 –.6 –.7 –.6 –1.4 –1.0 –.4 –.7 –.8 –.8 –.3 –.9 –2.0 –2.2 .0 –3.0 –3.9 149.1 189.7 112.3 102.7 121.7 148.1 188.8 111.2 102.3 119.6 –.4 –.7 .0 .4 –1.8 –.5 .2 –1.2 1.4 1.0 –.6 –.9 –.3 –.2 –1.0 –.7 –.5 –1.0 –.4 –1.8 –3.3 –2.2 –4.7 2.7 –1.7 Percent of capacity 1988–89 2000 2001 high May Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayp May ’00 to May ’01 Capacity growth May ’00 to May ’01 82.1 81.1 71.1 69.0 85.4 85.7 82.7 81.9 79.2 77.9 78.8 77.4 78.2 76.7 77.4 76.0 3.8 4.2 80.6 82.2 87.4 87.6 71.0 65.7 80.3 75.9 84.2 88.3 88.0 92.6 79.9 86.4 85.4 91.9 78.1 78.6 87.9 89.8 77.9 77.5 89.3 90.3 77.1 77.0 89.3 89.1 76.5 76.3 89.0 87.3 2.2 7.6 –1.4 3.6 of consumer durables excluding automotive products contracted 0.5 percent, the fifth consecutive month of decline in that sector; declines occurred in industries producing appliances, office and computing equipment, and furniture. The production of consumer energy products dropped 1.7 percent. Residential electricity use decreased and, to a lesser extent, so did automotive gasoline production, which reversed one-third of its April jump. Production of nondurable consumer goods excluding energy, which has been sluggish over the past year, fell back 1.2 percent in May; losses were shared among producers of food, clothing, consumer chemicals, and paper products. A decline of 0.8 percent in the output of business equipment put the level of production nearly 4-1/2 percent below the recent November peak. Output in many of the sector’s industries fell, but transit equipment production rose 1.1 percent because of the increased production of light trucks and cars for business use. The output of industrial and other equipment fell 1.2 percent, and the losses were widespread. The output of information processing equipment dropped 1.0 percent further, as the production of communications equipment and computers continued their downward slide. The production of intermediate products fell 0.6 percent in May; although the bulk of the decline can be attributed to scaled-back output of general business supplies, the production of construction supplies also remained weak. The production of materials fell back 0.9 percent in May, with similar-sized losses in durable, nondurable, and energy materials. The output of durable materials was notably held back by continued weakness in two industries: basic metals, in which output has contracted more than 14 percent since its September peak, and semiconductors and related electronic components, which has contracted more than 8 percent since its recent December peak. The output of nondurable goods materials fell 1.2 percent in May, with broad-based decreases. The production of chemical materials was reduced further, textile output fell significantly after having been little changed for several months, and the production of paper materials reversed some of its April increase. The 0.9 percent decline in the output of energy materials partly reflects a decline in utilities production. Industry Groups Manufacturing output fell 0.7 percent in May; after eight consecutive months of contraction, production in May was more than 4-1/2 percent below its level in September 2000. Production of durable goods declined 0.5 percent, with notable losses in the furniture, primary metals, and high-technology industries. Of the major industries, only lumber and motor vehicles and parts increased production in May; nonetheless, output indexes for both of these industries are still well below their levels in May of last year. The production of nondurable goods, which has been weak since the second half of 2000, declined 1.0 percent in May, to a level 4-3/4 percent below its May 2000 level. Losses were widespread and particularly significant in paper and paper products, printing and publishing, and chemicals. The production of petroleum products reversed nearly all of the April increase. The factory operating rate edged down in May, to 76.0 percent. The utilization rate for primary-processing industries declined to 76.3 percent, while the rate for advanced-processing industries moved down to 76.5 percent. With the exception of the stone, clay, and glass industry and the petroleum products industry, most factory operating rates remain below their long-run averages. Capacity utilization in high-technology industries (computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors) dropped in May for the tenth successive month, to 70.3 percent, the lowest utilization rate posted for the high-tech sector in twenty-five years. The operating rate at utilities declined to 87.3 percent. The operating rate for mining edged down, to 89.0 percent. Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change Motor Vehicle Assemblies Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes Capacity Utilization Industrial Capacity Gross Value of Products Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production 2 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Electric Power Use Historical Statistics: Historical Statistics: Historical Statistics: Historical Statistics: Total Industry Manufacturing Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Further detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). 3 4 Industrial Production Ratio scale, 1992 = 100 160 160 Total IP 145 145 125 125 105 105 Excluding high-tech industries 85 85 65 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Capacity Utilization 2000 65 Percent of capacity 90 90 Total industry 85 85 80 80 Manufacturing 75 75 70 70 65 1978 1980 1982 Industrial Production 1984 1986 1988 1990 1994 1996 Capacity Utilization 12 month percent change 10 10 1992 1998 2000 65 Percent of capacity 90 90 Total IP Primary processing 5 5 85 85 0 0 80 80 Advanced processing Excluding high-tech industries -5 1994 1996 1998 2000 -5 75 1994 1996 High-tech industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (SIC 3672-9), computers (SIC 357), and communications equipment (SIC 366). Shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 5 1998 2000 75 Table 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item It 2000 proportion1 Annual rate Monthly rate 1998 1999 2000 100.00 3.2 5.1 4.2 7.9 3.5 –.9 –6.7 –.4 –.2 –.6 –.8 –2.8 60.78 28.73 6.10 2.88 .45 1.37 1.41 3.2 .2 4.3 5.4 11.7 6.9 –2.5 3.4 3.1 8.2 3.3 53.3 6.0 4.6 3.0 .6 –4.4 –6.9 2.8 –1.3 –4.2 4.9 4.3 4.4 5.5 31.8 1.4 –2.9 2.2 –.5 –8.9 –10.8 1.3 –10.9 –6.2 –.5 –2.4 –13.1 –21.9 17.4 –6.2 –9.7 –4.1 –1.8 –9.5 –13.3 –37.6 3.9 –3.5 –.3 .5 1.3 3.3 –7.9 2.7 –.9 .0 .1 1.9 5.1 –4.1 .0 –.4 –.7 –.6 –.5 –.4 2.8 –1.6 –.6 –.7 –.8 1.1 2.9 1.3 –1.8 .2 –2.0 –2.2 –5.6 –5.8 –5.3 –5.6 –5.7 Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy 22.63 19.19 9.97 1.39 4.95 2.88 3.44 –1.0 –.5 .6 –8.1 3.3 –5.4 –4.1 1.6 1.5 .2 –4.9 5.8 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.2 .9 –4.4 2.5 3.1 6.7 4.2 3.6 .2 –2.4 13.8 2.2 7.9 2.0 1.6 1.2 –9.6 .7 10.6 4.5 .6 –1.0 –2.0 –7.0 1.2 1.5 10.0 .3 .6 –.3 –1.0 5.6 –3.8 –1.3 .3 .3 .4 .2 1.7 –2.3 .2 –.3 –.4 –.6 –.4 .0 –.6 .3 –.6 –.6 –.5 –1.3 –1.6 1.0 –.6 –1.3 –1.2 –.8 –.8 –1.9 –1.4 –1.7 –1.2 –1.6 –1.5 –7.2 –1.4 .9 .7 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other 14.25 2.60 5.92 5.73 9.1 12.9 16.8 –.1 5.7 –8.9 21.0 –1.5 11.0 –8.8 23.1 8.6 10.7 –2.6 20.2 7.7 12.1 –8.2 26.5 7.7 5.2 –20.5 18.5 4.4 –7.3 –17.5 –3.4 –7.1 –1.0 2.4 –2.0 –1.4 .3 3.0 –.7 .3 –1.4 –1.1 –.5 –2.5 –.8 1.1 –1.0 –1.2 .0 –8.7 6.8 –3.0 Defense and space equipment 1.94 8.2 –3.1 –3.3 –2.8 .7 3.6 6.3 –2.3 1.7 .2 –.1 3.4 Construction supplies Business supplies 6.13 9.02 7.6 1.8 4.5 2.3 .3 1.3 .3 2.7 –1.1 –2.1 –4.7 –.5 –3.0 –10.1 –.5 –1.2 .5 –1.6 –1.0 .0 –.3 –.9 –3.0 –6.0 Materials Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other 39.22 22.78 4.49 8.68 9.61 3.7 7.2 .1 20.5 –.6 8.0 10.9 7.1 22.0 3.4 6.2 12.1 .2 36.1 –1.7 12.7 21.1 4.5 57.0 1.5 5.6 11.9 –1.8 36.2 –2.0 –1.6 –1.0 –6.0 11.5 –9.8 –10.6 –12.4 –28.8 –4.5 –11.7 –.5 –.7 2.6 –.5 –2.2 –.6 –.6 1.4 –1.0 –1.2 –.4 –.9 –.3 –1.7 –.4 –.9 –.8 .0 –.7 –1.1 –3.9 –3.3 –10.8 6.5 –8.8 Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical 8.38 .73 1.53 4.31 –2.8 –8.5 –2.9 –4.0 5.6 –1.2 4.2 9.4 –5.2 –9.7 –4.5 –6.2 –1.1 –1.1 1.4 –.6 –7.6 –13.1 –13.6 –6.8 –7.7 –23.8 –1.8 –11.7 –15.1 –10.7 –12.6 –18.5 –.3 –3.7 1.9 –.3 –2.4 –.2 –5.8 –2.1 1.2 .1 4.8 –.9 –1.2 –1.5 –1.2 –1.1 –9.6 –14.5 –6.6 –13.4 Energy 8.06 –.7 .5 1.4 3.7 1.8 3.1 –.6 –.4 1.0 –.6 –.9 .1 24 25 32 33 34 35 36 371 87.40 47.81 1.82 1.61 2.38 3.32 5.49 9.06 9.02 5.72 4.0 8.0 5.4 6.2 5.6 –3.4 1.5 11.6 20.4 3.3 5.6 8.2 .5 3.1 2.3 8.0 1.6 13.6 25.2 5.9 4.3 8.4 –7.3 5.6 .9 –5.6 1.0 14.4 39.0 –6.4 8.0 13.7 –6.7 6.5 .9 2.7 1.5 12.4 58.8 9.9 3.7 8.1 –10.5 7.2 7.3 –10.0 .5 13.3 39.1 –11.2 –1.6 –.4 –12.4 4.2 –4.3 –16.5 –4.6 7.4 16.7 –23.6 –7.9 –9.5 –12.1 –5.5 –.9 –18.9 –9.4 –8.3 –6.6 –27.2 –.4 –.7 .7 –.2 –.7 –2.2 –2.4 –1.3 –1.7 6.4 –.5 .2 2.1 –.4 –.2 –2.9 –.3 .2 –1.8 6.1 –.6 –.9 –.6 –1.5 –1.1 1.6 –.7 –1.9 –1.9 –.7 –.7 –.5 1.3 –1.4 .3 –2.4 –.3 –1.3 –1.3 2.4 –3.3 –2.2 –7.0 –2.7 –1.0 –14.5 –5.6 –1.0 5.8 –10.4 372–6,9 38 39 3.52 4.54 1.31 10.4 3.9 .7 –11.6 4.5 6.6 –.4 1.9 .0 –3.5 5.2 –.9 2.9 5.1 1.7 5.4 1.8 –3.1 –3.0 –.1 –5.2 –.8 –1.3 –2.2 .8 –.4 .0 –.3 .7 .0 –.1 –.6 –1.4 1.8 1.3 –3.8 20,21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 39.59 10.52 1.23 1.41 3.30 6.58 10.33 2.39 3.65 –.4 .8 –6.5 –6.3 –.1 –1.8 .2 2.1 1.6 2.5 .3 –.2 –4.0 3.0 1.8 6.7 .2 3.6 –.7 .8 –7.9 –5.3 –3.1 1.5 –1.3 1.2 –1.9 1.2 .0 –2.4 –4.2 1.2 .6 3.3 8.2 .1 –1.5 1.5 –13.1 –9.1 –12.7 4.1 –1.4 –3.2 –1.0 –3.0 –2.0 –18.8 –8.0 3.2 .8 –2.8 –4.5 –9.7 –5.9 –.4 –7.8 –.8 –13.4 –10.1 –8.1 –1.7 –4.9 .0 .3 –.3 –.2 .9 –1.7 .6 1.2 –.9 –1.2 –.6 .0 –.4 –4.5 –1.5 –1.1 –1.3 –.6 –.3 –.5 –1.0 –.2 5.3 .0 –1.8 1.4 –1.5 –1.0 –.7 –.8 –.9 –1.7 –1.2 –1.4 –1.3 .1 –4.7 –1.5 –11.2 –6.0 –4.3 –4.6 –7.1 –3.3 –5.5 6.69 5.91 4.45 1.46 –5.3 –1.4 1.6 –11.9 –.5 2.3 1.7 4.6 1.3 6.5 6.3 7.5 2.3 11.8 13.1 6.9 2.8 1.0 –1.1 8.1 –1.5 9.3 12.1 .7 6.2 –2.4 –6.6 11.6 .4 –1.8 –2.2 –.7 1.4 1.0 1.2 .2 –.2 –1.0 –.1 –3.6 –.4 –1.8 –2.6 .7 2.7 –1.7 –2.6 1.0 Total IP MARKET GROUPS Products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Q3 Q4 2001 Q1r 2001 Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayp May ’00 to May ’01 2000 Q2 INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing Durable Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Fabricated metals Industrial machinery and equipment Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Instruments Miscellaneous Nondurable Food and tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Mining Utilities Electric Gas 10–14 491,2,3pt NOTE. Under industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of an SIC code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the products category, oil and gas drilling and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. Under industry groups, in the nondurables category, leather and products (SIC 31) is not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year. r Revised. p Preliminary. 6 Table 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: SPECIAL AGGREGATES AND SELECTED DETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item It 2000 proportion Annual rate Monthly rate 1998 1999 2000 100.00 3.2 5.1 4.2 7.9 3.5 –.9 –6.7 –.4 –.2 –.6 –.8 –2.8 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 13.92 3.44 1.90 .52 2.28 5.78 –3.1 –4.1 –.5 –26.3 –.2 –1.0 1.2 2.5 1.0 5.6 2.8 –.7 4.1 6.7 7.2 18.9 5.2 –.2 6.8 7.9 15.4 17.6 –1.9 6.2 2.9 4.5 .2 20.2 4.2 .9 4.2 10.0 –2.7 8.5 12.9 –.6 .2 –1.3 –2.5 33.3 –15.2 5.8 –.4 .2 –1.4 .8 1.1 –1.0 .8 .3 .4 1.9 .8 1.1 –.5 –.6 .1 .3 –1.9 –.1 –1.0 –1.7 –.9 1.0 –1.4 –.7 .3 .7 –3.5 17.1 –3.0 1.2 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and office equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components 357 366 86.08 8.47 2.37 1.94 4.1 37.2 54.0 9.0 5.6 40.6 54.3 13.4 4.2 55.3 42.0 35.5 8.0 70.4 33.0 30.3 3.6 56.9 51.9 41.6 –1.8 25.2 24.8 30.2 –7.8 –5.7 –3.5 –1.4 –.4 –1.3 –.9 –2.5 –.4 –1.3 –.4 –.9 –.6 –1.8 –.4 –2.3 –.7 –1.2 –.6 –1.9 –3.3 12.0 15.0 9.0 3672–9 4.16 45.7 47.8 73.4 120.5 66.4 23.3 –9.0 –.9 –2.0 –2.4 –1.1 11.6 77.61 1.2 2.3 –.7 2.3 –1.6 –4.7 –8.1 –.3 –.3 –.5 –.7 –5.1 5.72 3.10 2.48 3.3 6.9 –1.6 5.9 2.1 10.8 –6.4 –12.3 3.3 9.9 6.9 17.8 –11.2 –20.1 2.9 –23.6 –33.7 –7.1 –27.2 –17.7 –35.6 6.4 5.1 7.8 6.1 7.4 4.6 –.7 –.7 –.3 2.4 4.0 .5 –10.4 –10.8 –8.5 71.88 22.73 9.48 7.13 24.30 1.1 –.4 3.3 2.3 –1.0 2.0 2.5 –2.4 2.6 3.3 –.2 .4 5.3 –.1 –2.3 1.7 3.3 5.0 –.3 .6 –.8 –.3 6.3 –2.6 –3.1 –3.1 –1.7 3.8 .1 –7.4 –6.5 –.2 –8.1 –12.0 –11.5 –.7 .2 –1.5 –1.2 –1.2 –.8 –.4 –.1 –2.1 –1.5 –.5 –.7 –1.3 .0 .1 –.9 –1.1 –1.0 –.9 –.9 –4.7 –2.2 –2.3 –6.6 –8.0 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing Durable Industrial machinery 351–6,8,9 Electrical machinery 361–5,9,71 91.53 78.92 39.34 6.69 2.92 .7 1.2 2.7 .5 –.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.2 6.5 .0 –.5 –.4 4.9 .1 2.9 2.4 3.5 5.1 7.9 –.9 –1.4 –1.3 .7 1.7 –3.4 –4.5 –5.9 .9 –1.7 –6.8 –8.2 –10.5 –10.1 –6.7 –.3 –.2 –.5 –1.5 –2.4 –.1 –.4 .5 .5 –2.0 –.5 –.5 –.7 –2.5 –.8 –.7 –.7 –.3 –1.5 –1.0 –4.3 –5.1 –5.5 –6.7 –5.4 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing Durable 94.28 81.67 42.09 3.2 4.1 8.7 5.0 5.5 8.5 4.9 5.0 10.5 7.8 7.9 14.3 4.5 4.9 11.0 .6 .1 3.1 –5.4 –6.5 –7.1 –.7 –.7 –1.4 –.6 –.9 –.5 –.6 –.6 –.9 –.9 –.9 –.9 –2.3 –2.8 –1.0 Primary processing1 Advanced processing2 34.36 53.04 4.3 3.9 8.8 3.7 5.6 3.4 12.5 5.1 3.8 3.7 –3.6 –.2 –12.9 –4.6 –.2 –.4 –1.1 –.1 –.2 –.8 –.7 –.7 –5.1 –2.2 Total industry Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 371 3711,3 3714 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Business supplies Materials Q3 Q4 2001 Q1r 2001 Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayp May ’00 to May ’01 2000 Q2 NOTE. See notes to table 1. 1. Primary processing consists of textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and fertilizers, petroleum products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metals, stone, clay, and glass products, semiconductors and related electronic components, and motor vehicle parts. 2. Advanced processing consists of foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products and other agricultural chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, industrial machinery and equipment, electrical machinery except semiconductors and related electronic components, transportation equipment except motor vehicle parts, instruments, and miscellaneous manufactures. Table 3 MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2000 average 2000 Q2 Q3 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Feb. Mar. Apr. May Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 12.77 5.54 7.23 6.84 .39 13.36 5.77 7.59 7.15 .44 12.79 5.70 7.09 6.74 .35 11.63 5.00 6.63 6.32 .31 10.92 4.96 5.97 5.69 .27 10.81 4.85 5.96 5.69 .27 11.44 5.07 6.37 6.09 .28 11.54 5.06 6.49 6.22 .26 11.84 5.13 6.71 6.45 .25 MEMO Autos and light trucks 12.38 12.92 12.44 11.32 10.65 10.54 11.16 11.28 11.59 Item It NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 7 Table 4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY 1992 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2000 proportion Item It 2000 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2001 Jan. Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayp 100.00 149.0 148.7 148.2 147.3 146.0 145.4 145.1 144.2 143.1 60.78 28.73 6.10 2.88 .45 1.37 1.41 136.7 123.8 162.8 156.7 786.2 137.8 118.1 136.3 122.7 157.3 148.0 785.9 134.0 117.5 136.3 122.4 154.3 143.6 783.0 131.3 117.1 136.0 123.1 153.4 140.7 796.9 134.4 115.5 135.0 121.8 148.9 133.8 749.6 132.1 116.5 134.6 122.3 150.8 138.2 690.6 135.8 115.4 134.7 122.5 153.7 145.2 662.2 135.7 115.0 133.7 121.7 152.9 144.5 680.8 133.6 114.3 132.7 120.8 154.6 148.7 689.9 131.2 114.6 Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy 22.63 19.19 9.97 1.39 4.95 2.88 3.44 114.7 114.1 110.5 83.1 138.4 112.4 118.4 114.5 114.3 110.4 82.7 139.0 113.8 115.5 114.6 114.2 110.7 83.2 138.5 112.5 117.3 115.7 113.9 110.1 82.4 139.0 112.2 126.1 114.9 114.3 110.3 82.6 139.1 113.7 119.0 115.3 114.6 110.7 82.8 141.5 111.1 119.2 114.9 114.1 110.0 82.4 141.5 110.4 119.6 114.1 113.4 109.4 81.3 139.2 111.5 118.8 112.7 112.0 108.6 80.6 136.6 109.9 116.8 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other 14.25 2.60 5.92 5.73 199.5 127.7 327.2 147.3 200.0 121.6 332.3 148.8 200.6 121.8 336.7 147.8 199.2 117.4 335.9 147.9 197.4 111.7 337.4 146.7 195.3 114.4 330.6 144.7 195.9 117.8 328.2 145.1 193.1 116.6 326.5 141.4 191.7 117.8 323.1 139.7 Defense and space equipment 1.94 73.7 75.3 77.0 77.5 78.5 76.7 78.0 78.1 78.0 Construction supplies Business supplies 6.13 9.02 143.1 120.0 142.3 120.7 141.6 120.7 140.6 118.5 140.7 118.4 139.9 117.0 140.7 115.1 139.2 115.1 138.8 114.1 Materials Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other 39.22 22.78 4.49 8.68 9.61 171.3 235.7 169.0 512.1 135.5 171.1 235.0 168.5 515.9 133.7 169.9 232.9 161.8 521.4 131.8 167.8 230.3 157.6 522.3 129.6 165.9 226.6 146.1 517.5 130.1 165.0 225.2 149.9 514.9 127.2 163.9 223.7 152.1 509.5 125.8 163.2 221.8 151.6 501.0 125.3 161.8 220.1 151.6 497.3 123.9 Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical 8.38 .73 1.53 4.31 112.7 95.9 113.8 116.3 113.4 94.0 117.2 115.9 110.7 89.5 113.4 113.7 108.6 90.3 109.4 109.8 107.5 91.0 110.3 108.5 107.2 87.7 112.4 108.2 104.6 87.5 106.0 105.9 105.8 87.6 111.0 104.9 104.6 86.2 109.7 103.8 Energy 8.06 104.3 103.9 105.4 104.5 104.4 103.9 105.0 104.3 103.4 24 25 32 33 34 35 36 371 87.40 47.81 1.82 1.61 2.38 3.32 5.49 9.06 9.02 5.72 155.1 198.4 116.8 146.6 136.5 133.9 136.0 260.0 592.2 175.5 154.9 197.6 114.8 147.2 137.3 129.0 136.0 261.5 597.4 167.2 154.1 196.7 113.2 145.0 134.6 127.3 134.7 261.9 604.4 160.1 152.6 195.1 111.5 145.3 132.4 126.3 132.9 262.3 610.2 151.8 151.3 192.3 108.3 144.1 135.2 124.0 133.5 258.4 604.3 138.6 150.7 191.1 109.1 143.8 134.3 121.3 130.3 255.0 593.7 147.4 150.1 191.4 111.3 143.3 134.0 117.8 129.8 255.6 583.2 156.5 149.1 189.7 110.6 141.1 132.5 119.7 129.0 250.6 572.2 155.4 148.1 188.8 112.1 139.2 132.9 116.8 128.6 247.5 564.9 159.1 372–6,9 38 39 3.52 4.54 1.31 92.1 123.7 130.9 93.6 123.5 131.1 95.4 124.6 130.2 95.3 123.1 129.4 94.3 125.0 130.4 93.5 123.3 127.6 94.3 122.8 127.5 94.0 123.6 127.5 93.9 122.9 125.8 20,21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 39.59 10.52 1.23 1.41 3.30 6.58 10.33 2.39 3.65 116.0 111.0 98.4 89.5 113.7 110.9 125.4 117.4 141.9 116.3 111.0 96.7 89.2 117.1 111.6 125.8 116.5 141.3 115.5 111.1 92.8 89.2 114.7 111.2 124.8 116.9 139.1 114.1 110.7 94.5 88.2 112.7 109.2 122.9 114.7 137.3 114.0 110.8 93.0 88.9 111.8 109.6 121.8 115.1 138.5 114.0 111.2 92.7 88.7 112.8 107.7 122.6 116.5 137.3 112.6 110.5 92.7 88.4 107.7 106.0 121.2 115.0 136.5 112.3 110.0 91.8 88.2 113.4 106.0 119.0 116.6 134.5 111.2 109.1 91.1 87.4 111.5 104.8 117.4 115.1 134.7 6.69 5.91 4.45 1.46 100.4 121.7 124.7 110.5 100.1 120.0 124.2 105.8 101.1 121.9 127.3 104.5 99.6 129.1 131.2 120.2 101.0 124.0 126.7 113.7 101.4 121.8 123.9 112.9 102.9 123.0 125.5 113.2 102.7 121.7 125.3 109.0 102.3 119.6 122.0 109.9 Total IP MARKET GROUPS Products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing Durable Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Fabricated metals Industrial machinery and equipment Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Instruments Miscellaneous Nondurable Food and tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Mining Utilities Electric Gas 10–14 491,2,3pt NOTE. See notes to table 1. 8 Table 5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: SPECIAL AGGREGATES 1992 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2000 proportion Item It 2000 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2001 Jan. Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayp 100.00 149.0 148.7 148.2 147.3 146.0 145.4 145.1 144.2 143.1 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 13.92 3.44 1.90 .52 2.28 5.78 110.7 118.4 129.3 132.8 116.6 98.5 109.8 115.5 128.9 136.5 117.2 97.8 111.3 117.3 129.5 138.9 118.7 99.3 112.9 126.1 129.7 139.1 117.3 98.6 111.4 119.0 129.5 146.7 111.8 100.3 111.0 119.2 127.8 147.9 113.1 99.3 111.8 119.6 128.3 150.7 114.0 100.3 111.3 118.8 128.4 151.2 111.8 100.2 110.1 116.8 127.2 152.6 110.2 99.5 Non-energy 86.08 155.6 155.4 154.5 153.1 151.9 151.3 150.6 149.7 148.6 357 366 8.47 2.37 1.94 1310.3 1464.2 378.5 1334.8 1487.4 390.0 1358.1 1502.8 398.6 1368.9 1508.3 400.9 1351.7 1497.4 403.2 1334.1 1484.2 393.0 1316.4 1477.5 389.3 1292.3 1471.6 380.2 1277.4 1462.8 373.1 3672–9 4.16 2248.6 2282.9 2327.1 2353.7 2297.1 2275.5 2229.7 2175.7 2151.4 77.61 125.3 124.8 123.7 122.3 121.4 121.1 120.7 120.1 119.3 5.72 3.10 2.48 175.5 160.2 201.0 167.2 147.0 201.0 160.1 143.1 190.0 151.8 134.4 180.8 138.6 127.2 159.8 147.4 133.6 172.2 156.5 143.5 180.2 155.4 142.5 179.8 159.1 148.3 180.6 71.88 22.73 9.48 7.13 24.30 122.3 116.2 138.6 117.7 124.9 122.3 116.1 139.5 118.6 124.4 121.6 115.8 139.5 118.6 122.4 120.5 115.9 138.6 115.8 120.7 120.3 115.9 137.6 115.7 120.4 119.4 116.1 135.6 114.3 118.9 118.5 115.6 135.6 111.9 117.1 118.0 114.9 133.8 111.9 117.2 116.9 113.6 132.5 110.9 116.1 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing Durable Industrial machinery 351–6,8,9 Electrical machinery 361–5,9,71 91.53 78.92 39.34 6.69 2.92 123.2 125.0 134.8 149.7 138.9 122.6 124.6 133.5 149.9 136.6 122.0 123.6 132.2 149.6 135.4 121.1 122.1 130.6 149.7 136.7 120.1 121.1 128.7 147.0 137.0 119.7 120.8 128.0 144.8 133.7 119.5 120.4 128.7 145.5 131.0 119.0 119.8 127.9 141.9 129.9 118.1 119.0 127.4 139.8 128.6 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing Durable 94.28 81.67 42.09 147.7 153.9 201.7 147.8 154.3 202.0 147.7 153.8 202.2 147.2 152.7 201.7 146.5 152.2 200.5 145.4 151.1 197.6 144.6 149.8 196.6 143.7 148.9 194.8 142.4 147.5 193.2 Primary processing Advanced processing 34.36 53.04 181.2 140.8 181.1 140.5 178.8 140.5 176.1 139.6 173.5 139.0 173.1 138.4 171.3 138.3 170.9 137.1 169.7 136.1 Total industry Selected high-technology industries Computers and office equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 371 3711,3 3714 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Business supplies Materials NOTE. See notes to table 2. 9 Table 6 CAPACITY UTILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 2000 proportion 19672000 ave. 198889 high 199091 low 199495 high 2000 Q2 Q3 Q4 2001 Q1r 2001 Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayp Total industry 100.00 82.1 85.4 78.1 84.4 82.6 82.4 81.3 79.2 79.2 78.8 78.2 77.4 Manufacturing 88.70 81.1 85.7 76.6 84.0 81.9 81.7 80.3 77.9 77.9 77.4 76.7 76.0 24 25 32 33 34 35 36 371 49.19 1.89 1.65 2.31 3.13 5.85 9.34 9.26 5.74 79.6 82.6 81.3 78.9 81.6 77.9 81.4 81.4 77.0 84.6 93.6 86.6 83.5 92.7 82.0 85.4 84.0 89.1 73.1 75.5 72.5 69.7 73.7 71.9 72.3 75.0 55.9 83.6 89.4 83.9 86.8 95.4 85.2 87.3 90.1 85.9 82.7 81.6 79.6 84.5 89.4 77.6 81.9 90.4 84.5 82.5 79.1 80.1 85.5 87.0 77.1 82.7 90.9 81.7 80.7 76.3 80.0 84.0 83.1 75.7 82.5 87.1 76.0 77.2 73.7 78.2 83.3 78.8 73.4 79.5 80.1 69.9 77.0 73.3 78.3 83.2 79.0 72.9 79.1 80.0 69.9 76.8 74.8 77.8 82.9 76.7 72.5 78.9 77.3 74.1 75.8 74.3 76.5 81.8 78.0 71.9 77.1 74.8 73.5 75.2 75.2 75.3 81.9 76.1 71.6 75.8 73.0 75.2 372,6–9 38 39 4.01 4.69 1.32 75.2 81.6 75.9 87.3 81.4 79.0 60.7 74.5 71.7 85.3 82.6 81.9 71.1 79.6 81.3 71.7 80.3 81.4 72.8 80.5 80.5 72.3 80.3 79.2 71.9 80.1 78.6 72.5 79.7 78.5 72.3 80.2 78.3 72.2 79.6 77.1 20,21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 39.52 10.54 1.26 1.64 3.18 6.59 10.56 1.97 3.58 83.2 83.3 85.5 80.6 88.7 85.4 79.3 87.3 84.7 87.3 85.9 90.4 85.1 93.5 91.7 86.2 88.5 89.6 79.7 79.1 77.7 70.7 83.1 77.8 74.2 85.1 77.4 85.6 85.8 92.6 85.9 91.6 87.7 84.2 97.1 91.3 80.9 81.2 83.4 71.8 85.9 81.0 77.2 96.0 84.6 80.5 81.6 80.9 70.5 82.9 81.8 76.4 95.3 83.7 79.7 81.2 77.1 69.4 83.3 82.0 75.5 94.3 80.9 78.5 81.2 76.1 69.6 80.1 79.8 73.9 93.8 79.3 78.8 81.5 76.0 69.6 81.6 79.8 74.3 94.6 79.2 77.9 81.0 76.2 69.4 77.8 78.5 73.4 93.4 78.7 77.7 80.6 75.7 69.4 81.9 78.5 72.1 94.6 77.4 76.9 80.0 75.4 68.8 80.4 77.6 71.2 93.3 77.4 5.96 5.33 87.4 87.6 88.0 92.6 82.0 83.0 91.0 93.5 85.8 91.2 86.6 90.7 86.6 92.0 88.2 90.6 87.9 89.8 89.3 90.3 89.3 89.1 89.0 87.3 357 366 9.18 2.79 2.03 80.4 81.2 80.4 81.9 86.9 84.8 72.4 66.9 73.4 87.9 91.4 87.8 88.0 76.4 80.8 89.1 79.1 84.9 85.1 78.2 87.3 77.4 73.7 83.3 77.3 73.6 82.8 74.8 72.3 80.7 72.2 71.1 77.5 70.3 69.8 74.8 3672–9 4.36 80.0 81.1 72.6 90.8 98.5 97.0 87.9 76.5 76.6 73.2 69.9 68.0 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing Industrial machinery 351–6,8,9 Electrical machinery 361–5,9,71 90.82 79.52 6.54 2.88 82.2 81.2 81.3 83.4 85.7 86.1 85.5 87.5 78.4 76.8 72.9 74.3 84.2 83.8 88.1 93.2 82.0 81.1 84.1 84.2 81.5 80.6 84.1 83.9 80.6 79.5 84.2 82.9 79.1 77.6 81.8 81.1 79.0 77.7 81.2 81.0 78.9 77.4 81.5 79.3 78.5 77.0 79.4 78.7 77.9 76.4 78.0 77.9 Primary processing Advanced processing 33.89 54.81 82.2 80.6 88.3 84.2 76.7 76.6 88.7 82.3 86.4 79.8 85.4 80.1 82.7 79.5 78.4 78.2 78.6 78.1 77.5 77.9 77.0 77.1 76.3 76.5 Item Durable Lumber and products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metals Fabricated metals Industrial machinery and equipment Electrical machinery Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Instruments Miscellaneous Nondurable Food and tobacco products Textile mill products Apparel products Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and office equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components NOTE. See notes to table 2. Table 7 INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY Percent change Item 196779 Average annual rate 1980198988 94 Fourth quarter to fourth quarter 19952001 1998 1999 2000 2001p 2000 Q3 Annual rate 2001 Q4 Q1 Q2 Monthly rate 2001 May Total industry 3.5 2.2 2.2 4.9 6.5 4.6 4.6 2.4 4.5 4.6 3.7 2.5 .2 Manufacturing 3.7 2.5 2.5 5.5 7.2 5.1 5.0 2.7 5.0 5.1 4.1 2.8 .2 Durable Nondurable 3.6 3.9 3.1 1.8 3.0 2.0 8.5 1.9 10.2 4.1 8.4 1.3 8.8 .8 4.9 –.1 8.8 .8 9.2 .5 7.6 .1 5.1 –.1 .4 .0 .4 4.9 .2 1.2 –.6 1.4 –.3 2.1 –.1 1.1 –1.5 2.4 –.8 3.3 –1.3 4.1 –.9 3.3 –1.5 3.3 –1.7 3.7 –1.4 4.0 –.1 .3 11.3 15.9 13.5 38.9 39.5 37.8 47.6 21.5 49.3 50.9 37.7 22.7 1.5 3.3 1.4 1.7 2.5 4.4 2.1 1.3 .6 1.2 1.0 .7 .5 .0 3.8 3.7 1.6 3.1 3.3 2.1 7.6 4.0 9.4 5.7 4.9 5.2 8.0 3.0 4.2 1.8 8.6 2.6 9.5 2.4 7.6 2.1 4.4 1.9 .3 .2 Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing ex. selected high-technology industries Primary processing Advanced processing 10 Table 8 GROSS VALUE OF PRODUCTS Billions of 1996 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 1996 2000 2000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2001 Q1r 2001 Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayp 2,427.8 2,878.0 2,842.8 2,875.0 2,879.2 2,860.3 2,822.6 2,819.8 2,830.0 2,812.7 2,802.8 1,862.5 1,225.0 303.9 162.6 141.3 921.0 2,216.7 1,342.8 372.3 195.0 177.9 970.6 2,180.0 1,338.6 377.3 198.6 179.1 962.0 2,209.0 1,351.6 382.4 201.7 181.0 970.1 2,217.1 1,347.1 371.5 195.3 176.7 975.3 2,202.4 1,332.9 355.0 181.9 175.0 975.8 2,176.7 1,321.4 344.5 174.9 171.8 973.8 2,174.5 1,322.8 343.3 173.7 172.0 976.1 2,188.3 1,329.1 353.4 183.9 170.5 973.6 2,173.3 1,324.9 352.1 183.2 169.9 970.7 2,166.2 1,320.9 358.5 189.3 169.2 961.5 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 637.5 610.2 538.6 71.6 872.7 850.4 788.7 65.9 846.8 823.6 765.5 66.4 863.9 841.2 784.1 65.7 878.9 856.4 800.3 65.3 879.7 859.2 802.2 66.1 864.2 843.4 785.0 66.8 859.8 838.8 781.4 65.8 868.0 846.5 788.0 66.9 855.6 834.2 775.2 66.9 852.4 830.6 771.6 66.9 Intermediate products Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 565.3 235.0 330.3 85.5 661.3 285.4 375.6 95.8 661.7 286.9 374.4 93.9 664.9 286.6 377.9 97.1 661.2 284.9 375.9 96.8 656.9 281.3 375.2 95.9 645.2 278.7 366.1 94.9 644.5 277.4 366.6 94.7 641.2 279.4 361.5 94.7 638.8 276.8 361.7 94.8 636.0 276.3 359.4 94.8 Item It Products, total Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable Table 9 DIFFUSION INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Percent Item It Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. One month earlier 1999 2000 2001 53.6 58.7 46.7 56.5 50.4 41.8 55.4 56.5 41.7 59.4 51.4 38.9 55.1 51.4 50.7 56.2 58.2 54.2 55.8 43.5 48.6 54.0 64.5 43.5 53.3 45.7 59.8 37.9 Three months earlier 1999 2000 2001 52.9 61.2 38.9 56.9 62.0 36.8 56.5 59.8 37.0 56.5 56.2 36.4 55.8 54.0 58.0 52.9 56.2 49.6 63.4 44.9 58.0 48.9 62.0 43.1 58.3 45.3 62.7 42.4 Six months earlier 1999 2000 2001 59.1 68.1 40.9 53.3 65.9 38.0 56.2 68.1 35.5 54.3 64.1 33.7 58.0 60.0 59.8 55.4 60.1 49.6 60.1 43.8 61.6 47.5 67.4 44.9 62.7 41.7 62.7 39.5 NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. Table 10 ELECTRIC POWER USE 1992 = 100 Item 1992 billion kWh 2000 Nov. Seasonally adjusted 2001 Dec. Jan. Feb.r Mar.r Apr.p 2000 Nov. Not seasonally adjusted 2001 Dec. Jan. Feb.r Mar.r Apr.p Total manufacturing and mining 933.2 109.7 108.2 106.8 106.4 105.3 102.0 109.4 107.1 104.2 103.3 103.2 101.3 Manufacturing Durable Nondurable 853.2 366.0 487.2 110.4 110.3 110.5 109.0 109.9 108.3 107.6 109.4 106.2 107.0 108.3 106.0 105.9 107.0 105.0 102.4 105.4 100.0 110.0 109.3 110.6 107.5 107.4 107.6 104.6 105.5 103.8 103.6 105.7 101.9 103.6 105.6 102.0 101.7 105.1 99.0 80.1 99.6 97.5 95.2 98.2 96.7 95.9 100.9 101.1 99.3 98.1 96.9 95.3 908.9 835.5 97.7 109.9 110.1 104.2 108.8 108.5 103.3 108.7 106.9 105.3 108.1 106.6 103.1 107.1 104.9 105.0 105.0 101.6 101.6 109.2 109.8 103.5 107.1 107.1 106.7 105.7 103.9 108.7 104.6 103.6 98.1 104.3 103.0 105.8 104.0 101.5 98.1 Mining Total ex. nuclear nondefense Utility sales to industry Industrial generation NOTE. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/download.htm. 11 Table 11 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year IP (percent change)1 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual –.5 .5 –.9 –1.6 2.1 .8 .1 .5 2.2 –.2 .3 .0 .5 –.7 1.0 –.9 –1.9 –.7 –.9 1.3 1.2 –2.5 .8 –.8 1.2 .0 –1.3 .6 –.3 .6 –.7 –.6 .9 –.8 1.8 –.4 1.2 –.4 –.5 1.3 .1 1.5 –.8 –.7 1.7 .4 .7 –.8 –.8 .8 –.5 1.6 –1.4 –.3 –.1 –.2 .5 –1.1 –.8 .5 2.2 .8 1.9 –6.4 6.8 1.1 –15.0 2.2 –5.2 11.9 –2.3 –4.2 4.1 –7.3 17.3 –.3 14.2 –10.5 –7.5 10.3 3.3 –2.8 1.6 –5.4 3.7 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 2.1 .4 .6 –.6 .1 –.2 .9 –.7 1.2 .3 1.1 .3 –1.0 .4 .0 .5 .2 .8 .4 .6 .6 .2 –.2 .4 .1 .5 –.2 –.3 .9 .1 .2 –.4 .3 .6 .7 .0 .6 .3 .1 .5 –.1 .6 –.1 –.1 –.4 –.5 –.9 .9 1.4 .3 .1 .6 .5 .3 .8 –.4 .7 .9 .6 .5 11.1 3.0 2.0 4.2 3.2 7.2 2.8 –1.7 6.7 3.1 2.6 .3 .7 5.6 3.9 –2.6 1.4 6.5 7.1 3.6 8.9 1.6 1.1 4.6 4.5 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 .6 –.5 –.5 .1 .4 –.8 .5 –.8 .5 .5 .9 .5 –.9 .9 .2 .2 –.6 .3 .7 .3 –.6 .4 .8 .3 –.5 –.2 .0 1.2 –.2 .3 –1.0 .0 .1 .7 .2 .4 .2 .1 –.3 –.2 –.2 .1 1.0 .4 1.1 –.5 –.6 –.1 .7 .3 .4 –1.3 –.1 .5 .4 .5 –.6 –.6 .0 .8 3.8 2.0 –8.3 1.0 3.8 .5 .6 1.5 6.5 1.5 –4.4 1.0 6.2 2.4 1.9 –.1 –5.8 1.1 5.0 6.2 1.8 –.2 –2.0 3.1 3.5 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 .2 .6 –.2 .5 .4 .3 –.1 1.1 1.0 .0 .8 .2 –.1 .2 .3 .5 –.2 1.1 .6 .5 .8 .4 .8 .3 .4 .4 .4 .8 .6 –.7 .6 –.4 .0 .7 –.1 .3 1.3 .6 .9 2.1 .1 .6 .5 .6 –.3 .5 –.4 .0 .6 .5 .7 .3 1.0 .6 –.4 1.0 .1 .4 .3 .1 5.5 6.0 2.8 7.6 3.6 7.7 1.1 9.2 6.1 3.0 5.8 4.4 5.4 7.9 3.4 6.3 2.9 5.3 7.3 2.9 5.4 4.8 4.6 6.8 4.9 1999 2000 2001 .6 .5 –.9 .3 .5 –.4 .7 .7 –.2 .1 .7 –.6 .7 .7 –.8 .2 .5 .8 –.2 .4 .7 .1 .2 .8 –.2 .3 –.3 .7 –.6 3.9 6.7 –6.7 4.9 7.9 5.8 3.5 5.7 –.9 4.2 5.6 IP (1992=100) 1999 2000 2001 135.9 143.6 146.0 136.3 144.3 145.4 137.3 145.2 145.1 137.4 146.3 144.2 138.4 147.2 143.1 138.6 147.9 139.7 147.6 140.3 148.6 140.4 149.0 141.5 148.7 141.9 148.2 142.8 147.3 136.5 144.4 145.5 138.1 147.1 140.1 148.4 142.1 148.1 139.6 147.5 Capacity (percent of 1992 output) 1999 2000 2001 167.9 175.4 183.3 168.6 176.1 183.7 169.2 176.7 184.2 169.9 177.4 184.5 170.5 178.1 184.9 171.1 178.7 171.7 179.4 172.3 180.1 172.9 180.7 173.5 181.4 174.1 182.1 174.8 182.8 168.6 176.1 183.7 170.5 178.1 172.3 180.1 174.1 182.1 171.4 179.1 Utilization (percent) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 86.7 84.7 81.2 76.3 72.5 87.1 84.6 81.4 77.8 72.3 87.1 84.4 81.6 77.1 72.9 86.1 82.6 80.9 76.2 73.7 86.9 80.4 81.4 75.4 74.5 86.7 79.2 81.8 75.0 74.8 85.9 78.5 82.3 74.2 76.1 85.4 79.3 81.8 73.7 77.0 85.3 80.3 80.9 73.0 78.2 85.5 80.7 80.1 72.2 78.7 84.9 81.8 78.8 71.9 78.6 84.5 82.1 77.7 71.1 78.9 87.0 84.6 81.4 77.1 72.6 86.6 80.7 81.4 75.6 74.4 85.5 79.4 81.7 73.6 77.1 85.0 81.5 78.9 71.7 78.7 86.0 81.5 80.8 74.5 75.7 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 80.4 79.9 79.8 79.1 83.2 80.1 80.4 79.2 80.0 83.4 80.8 80.4 78.2 80.2 83.3 81.0 80.3 78.7 80.5 83.7 81.3 80.3 78.4 80.7 83.7 81.5 79.9 78.1 81.4 83.6 81.5 79.4 78.2 81.8 84.1 81.3 79.6 78.3 81.8 84.5 81.0 79.9 78.2 81.6 84.1 80.5 79.0 78.8 82.6 84.2 80.4 79.2 79.1 82.8 84.8 79.8 79.5 79.7 83.2 85.1 80.4 80.2 79.1 79.8 83.3 81.3 80.2 78.4 80.8 83.7 81.3 79.6 78.2 81.7 84.2 80.2 79.2 79.2 82.9 84.7 80.8 79.8 78.7 81.3 84.0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 85.4 82.7 79.6 79.1 81.0 84.6 83.0 78.9 79.4 81.3 85.3 83.3 78.1 79.9 81.3 85.3 82.7 78.2 80.4 81.4 84.7 82.9 78.7 80.4 80.9 84.4 82.7 79.6 80.1 80.9 83.4 82.6 79.5 80.5 81.0 83.6 82.6 79.5 80.2 80.7 83.3 82.6 80.2 80.3 81.4 82.8 82.0 80.0 80.8 81.5 83.0 80.8 79.8 81.0 81.6 83.2 80.2 79.2 80.9 82.1 85.1 83.0 78.9 79.5 81.2 84.8 82.8 78.8 80.3 81.1 83.4 82.6 79.7 80.3 81.0 83.0 81.0 79.6 80.9 81.7 84.1 82.3 79.3 80.2 81.3 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 82.1 84.4 81.9 83.0 83.5 82.1 84.0 82.4 83.5 83.1 82.5 83.8 82.0 83.3 82.9 82.7 83.3 82.5 83.4 82.8 83.2 83.3 82.8 83.3 82.7 83.3 83.2 83.1 83.3 81.6 83.5 82.5 82.7 83.5 81.1 83.5 83.3 82.8 83.8 82.4 83.3 83.4 82.9 83.8 81.8 83.5 82.8 82.5 83.9 81.8 83.7 82.7 83.0 83.9 81.1 84.3 82.4 83.0 83.7 80.8 82.2 84.1 82.1 83.3 83.2 83.1 83.3 82.8 83.3 82.4 83.4 83.1 82.8 83.7 81.8 83.8 82.6 82.8 83.8 81.2 83.1 83.3 82.6 83.5 82.1 1999 2000 2001 81.0 81.9 79.7 80.9 82.0 79.2 81.1 82.2 78.8 80.9 82.5 78.2 81.2 82.7 77.4 81.0 82.7 81.3 82.3 81.4 82.6 81.2 82.4 81.5 82.0 81.5 81.4 81.7 80.6 81.0 82.0 79.2 81.0 82.6 81.3 82.4 81.6 81.3 81.2 82.1 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 12 Table 12 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing Seasonally adjusted Year IP (percent change) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual –.3 .2 –.6 –2.0 2.5 .7 .3 .6 2.9 .4 .4 –.4 .3 –.7 1.4 –1.5 –2.1 .2 –.9 1.1 1.5 –3.1 .7 –.4 1.4 .1 –1.5 –.1 .0 .8 –.5 –.7 .6 –.8 1.5 –.9 1.7 –.8 –.5 1.1 .0 1.5 –.8 –.5 2.2 .5 1.1 –1.1 –1.2 .6 –.7 1.7 –1.6 –.3 .3 –.1 .3 –1.6 –.7 –.1 3.4 –.4 2.5 –7.6 11.5 .3 –17.7 4.2 –2.7 14.7 –2.4 –4.7 –.1 –5.6 17.1 –1.5 16.8 –13.1 –8.0 11.2 3.6 –3.9 1.6 –5.9 5.7 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 2.5 .1 1.5 –.8 –.2 .6 .6 –.5 1.6 .4 .7 .7 –.9 .2 –.1 .5 .2 1.4 .5 1.0 .4 .5 –.1 .3 –.1 .7 –.3 –.3 1.0 .0 .3 –.4 .3 .7 .7 .1 .9 .6 –.2 .3 –.2 .4 .0 .1 .2 .0 –.8 .8 1.3 .2 .1 1.1 .4 .5 .9 –.3 –.1 1.2 .6 .6 13.2 2.1 4.5 5.0 2.3 6.6 4.2 1.7 7.0 4.1 3.4 1.1 1.7 5.5 3.7 –.4 1.6 6.7 7.6 5.2 9.9 2.3 2.8 5.3 4.7 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 .9 –.2 –.9 .3 .7 –1.2 .9 –.7 .6 .3 .8 .3 –1.1 1.0 .2 .1 –.8 .3 .6 .5 –.7 .4 .7 .4 –.4 .0 –.1 1.4 –.1 .0 –1.1 .0 .2 .7 .2 .3 .3 .2 –.2 –.2 –.3 –.1 1.1 .3 1.3 –.6 –.6 –.1 .7 .2 .4 –1.3 –.2 .5 .5 .1 –.6 –.5 –.1 .9 4.3 2.9 –9.7 2.4 4.4 –.7 –.1 1.2 7.3 2.0 –4.5 .8 7.8 3.0 1.5 –1.4 –6.3 1.7 4.5 6.6 1.9 –.5 –2.4 4.0 3.7 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 .0 .6 –.2 .5 .6 .4 –.2 1.0 1.2 .0 1.0 .3 –.2 .4 .2 .8 –.3 1.3 .5 .6 .9 .2 .9 .3 .3 .2 .5 .9 .8 –.8 .8 –.6 .2 .6 –.1 .5 1.3 .6 1.1 2.3 .2 .9 .6 .5 –.2 .6 –.3 .0 .6 .7 .9 .2 1.0 .7 –.2 1.0 .1 .6 .4 .2 5.6 6.5 2.3 8.5 4.8 9.4 .7 10.1 6.7 2.8 6.6 3.9 7.1 9.0 3.9 7.6 3.6 5.7 7.7 4.7 6.0 5.3 4.9 7.8 5.6 1999 2000 2001 .5 .6 –.8 .5 .4 –.4 .5 .9 –.5 .2 .6 –.6 .8 .6 –.7 .2 .4 .6 –.1 .6 .6 .1 .3 .9 –.1 .5 –.5 .6 –1.0 4.1 7.1 –7.9 5.4 8.0 6.0 3.7 6.8 –1.6 4.8 6.1 IP (1992=100) 1999 2000 2001 140.5 149.2 151.3 141.2 149.9 150.7 141.9 151.3 150.1 142.2 152.2 149.1 143.4 153.1 148.1 143.6 153.8 144.5 153.7 145.3 154.6 145.6 155.1 146.8 154.9 147.5 154.1 148.4 152.6 141.2 150.1 150.7 143.1 153.0 145.1 154.4 147.6 153.8 144.8 153.6 Capacity (percent of 1992 output) 1999 2000 2001 175.3 183.8 192.9 176.0 184.6 193.5 176.8 185.3 194.0 177.5 186.1 194.4 178.3 186.9 194.8 179.0 187.6 179.7 188.4 180.3 189.1 181.0 189.9 181.7 190.7 182.4 191.5 183.1 192.3 176.0 184.6 193.5 178.3 186.9 180.3 189.2 182.4 191.5 179.3 188.0 Utilization (percent) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 86.4 83.3 79.0 72.6 70.6 86.7 83.3 79.2 74.6 70.8 86.9 82.7 79.3 73.9 71.8 85.3 80.8 79.3 73.1 72.5 86.4 78.1 79.6 72.7 73.4 86.3 76.7 79.3 72.6 73.9 85.6 75.9 79.6 71.8 74.8 84.5 77.0 78.8 71.4 75.6 84.3 77.9 78.0 70.9 77.2 84.5 78.6 77.0 69.9 77.6 83.6 79.7 75.6 69.6 77.7 83.3 79.7 74.2 69.0 77.5 86.7 83.1 79.2 73.7 71.1 86.0 78.5 79.4 72.8 73.2 84.8 76.9 78.8 71.4 75.9 83.8 79.3 75.6 69.5 77.6 85.3 79.5 78.3 71.8 74.4 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 79.3 78.9 79.1 79.1 82.9 79.5 79.1 78.6 80.2 83.1 79.8 79.3 77.8 80.3 82.9 80.0 79.2 78.7 80.6 83.7 80.1 79.4 78.5 80.7 83.5 80.3 78.9 78.1 81.4 83.4 80.4 78.3 78.2 81.8 83.8 80.2 78.8 78.6 81.5 84.0 79.8 78.8 78.4 81.5 84.0 79.6 77.9 78.9 82.5 84.1 79.5 78.5 79.1 82.8 84.8 79.0 78.2 79.9 83.1 85.1 79.5 79.1 78.5 79.9 83.0 80.1 79.2 78.5 80.9 83.5 80.1 78.6 78.4 81.6 83.9 79.4 78.2 79.3 82.8 84.7 79.8 78.8 78.7 81.3 83.8 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 85.7 81.8 78.2 78.1 80.4 84.5 82.5 77.5 78.5 80.4 85.0 82.6 76.6 79.1 80.4 85.0 81.8 76.8 79.5 80.7 84.2 82.0 77.1 79.6 80.2 84.1 81.8 78.1 79.4 80.1 83.0 81.6 78.2 79.8 80.1 83.1 81.7 78.2 79.5 79.7 82.7 81.5 79.0 79.6 80.6 82.1 80.9 78.9 79.9 80.6 82.2 79.7 78.6 80.2 80.7 82.1 79.0 78.1 79.9 81.3 85.1 82.3 77.5 78.6 80.4 84.4 81.9 77.3 79.5 80.3 82.9 81.6 78.5 79.6 80.1 82.1 79.9 78.5 80.0 80.9 83.6 81.4 77.9 79.4 80.4 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 81.1 84.0 80.9 82.1 82.9 81.1 83.5 81.3 82.6 82.4 81.7 83.3 80.7 82.5 82.0 82.1 82.7 81.4 82.5 82.0 82.6 82.5 81.7 82.3 81.8 82.5 82.6 82.0 82.5 80.6 82.8 81.7 81.8 82.6 80.1 82.9 82.3 81.9 83.1 81.5 82.8 82.7 82.0 83.0 80.9 83.0 82.0 81.6 83.0 81.0 83.3 81.7 82.0 83.1 80.4 83.8 81.4 82.1 82.9 80.2 81.3 83.6 81.0 82.4 82.4 82.4 82.6 81.7 82.5 81.5 82.8 82.2 81.9 82.9 80.8 83.4 81.7 81.9 83.0 80.5 82.5 82.5 81.6 82.7 81.3 1999 2000 2001 80.2 81.2 78.4 80.2 81.2 77.9 80.3 81.6 77.4 80.1 81.8 76.7 80.4 81.9 76.0 80.2 82.0 80.4 81.6 80.6 81.7 80.4 81.7 80.8 81.2 80.9 80.5 81.0 79.3 80.2 81.3 77.9 80.3 81.9 80.5 81.7 80.9 80.3 80.5 81.3 NOTE. See note to table 11. 13 Table 13 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Seasonally adjusted Year IP (percent change) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual –.7 .3 –.9 –1.6 2.5 .8 .0 .4 2.0 –.4 .2 –.1 .4 –.8 .8 –1.1 –2.2 –.8 –.9 1.2 1.1 –2.7 .8 –.9 1.2 –.1 –1.3 .5 –.4 .4 –.8 –.8 .9 –1.0 1.8 –.5 1.2 –.5 –.4 1.4 .0 1.6 –1.0 –1.0 1.6 .3 .6 –.8 –1.0 .6 –.6 1.6 –1.6 –.3 –.2 –.3 .5 –1.4 –1.2 .5 .9 –.7 1.3 –7.7 6.9 –.1 –16.6 1.1 –5.8 10.6 –3.5 –4.9 3.2 –8.2 16.8 –1.4 13.8 –11.8 –9.1 8.7 2.2 –4.0 .8 –6.5 2.8 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1.9 .3 .7 –.8 .1 –.3 .9 –.8 1.2 .2 1.0 .2 –1.1 .3 .1 .4 .1 .8 .4 .4 .4 .2 –.3 .5 –.2 .3 –.1 –.2 .8 .1 .1 –.5 .0 .5 .6 –.1 .6 .2 .1 .5 –.2 .7 –.2 –.2 –.3 –.5 –.8 1.0 1.3 .4 .0 .3 .4 .3 .6 –.5 .7 1.0 .5 .5 9.7 2.3 1.7 3.5 2.8 5.3 2.5 –1.8 6.8 1.8 1.0 .5 –.6 5.0 3.3 –3.5 1.0 6.3 6.5 3.5 7.5 .9 .8 4.2 3.9 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 .5 –.4 –.5 –.2 .4 –.7 .5 –.9 .4 .5 .9 .5 –1.0 .8 .1 .1 –.5 .4 .7 .3 –.7 .3 .8 .2 –.6 –.3 –.1 1.2 –.4 .2 –.9 .0 .1 .6 .2 .4 .1 .0 –.4 –.2 –.3 .2 1.0 .3 1.0 –.3 –.6 –.2 .6 .2 .2 –1.4 –.2 .4 .4 .3 –.7 –.7 .0 .7 3.5 1.7 –8.8 –.6 3.7 –.3 .6 1.4 5.7 .8 –4.8 .7 6.1 1.3 1.2 –.4 –6.4 .4 3.9 5.0 1.4 –.5 –2.4 2.2 2.8 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 .1 .3 –.3 .3 .1 .3 –.3 .9 .8 –.2 .6 –.1 –.3 –.1 .3 .3 –.4 1.0 .4 .4 .7 .2 .6 .1 .3 .3 .3 .6 .3 –1.1 .4 –.6 –.3 .4 –.5 .2 1.1 .3 .8 2.0 .0 .3 .2 .5 –.6 .4 –.7 –.4 .6 .2 .6 .1 .8 .4 –.6 .8 –.1 .2 .1 –.2 4.5 2.9 .7 5.2 1.0 5.6 –1.3 7.0 3.0 1.8 4.0 2.2 2.2 5.4 –.1 4.2 –.5 2.0 6.4 .0 4.1 2.4 2.0 4.1 2.7 1999 2000 2001 .4 .1 –.8 .0 .1 –.3 .5 .2 –.1 –.3 .3 –.5 .5 .3 –.7 –.1 .0 .4 –.7 .3 .5 .0 .0 .6 –.4 .0 –.5 .3 –.8 .9 1.7 –6.8 1.4 2.9 2.9 –.9 3.4 –3.4 1.2 1.8 IP (1992=100) 1999 2000 2001 119.3 122.2 120.1 119.4 122.3 119.7 119.9 122.6 119.5 119.6 123.0 119.0 120.2 123.4 118.1 120.1 123.4 120.6 122.5 120.9 123.2 120.9 123.2 121.7 122.6 121.7 122.0 122.1 121.1 119.5 122.4 119.8 119.9 123.2 120.8 122.9 121.8 121.9 120.5 122.6 Capacity (percent of 1992 output) 1999 2000 2001 147.1 149.6 151.3 147.3 149.8 151.4 147.6 150.0 151.5 147.8 150.2 151.6 148.1 150.3 151.6 148.3 150.5 148.5 150.7 148.7 150.8 148.9 150.9 149.1 151.0 149.3 151.2 149.5 151.3 147.3 149.8 151.4 148.1 150.3 148.7 150.8 149.3 151.2 148.3 150.5 Utilization (percent) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 86.6 84.4 81.0 76.0 72.3 87.1 84.3 81.2 77.4 72.0 87.1 84.1 81.5 76.7 72.6 86.1 82.1 80.7 75.9 73.4 86.8 79.8 81.3 75.1 74.2 86.6 78.7 81.6 74.7 74.5 85.8 78.0 82.2 73.9 75.8 85.2 78.8 81.6 73.5 76.8 85.1 80.0 80.7 72.6 78.0 85.3 80.4 79.9 71.8 78.4 84.7 81.6 78.5 71.5 78.2 84.3 81.8 77.3 70.5 78.6 86.9 84.3 81.2 76.7 72.3 86.5 80.2 81.2 75.2 74.0 85.4 78.9 81.5 73.3 76.9 84.7 81.3 78.6 71.3 78.4 85.9 81.2 80.6 74.1 75.4 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 80.0 79.5 80.1 79.4 83.6 79.7 80.0 79.4 80.2 83.7 80.4 80.1 78.5 80.5 83.7 80.6 80.0 79.0 80.8 84.0 80.8 80.0 78.7 81.1 83.8 81.0 79.8 78.5 81.7 83.9 80.9 79.3 78.4 82.1 84.3 80.7 79.6 78.5 82.2 84.6 80.5 80.0 78.3 81.9 84.3 80.0 79.1 79.0 83.0 84.6 79.9 79.2 79.3 83.2 85.0 79.3 79.6 80.0 83.5 85.3 80.1 79.9 79.3 80.0 83.7 80.8 79.9 78.7 81.2 83.9 80.7 79.6 78.4 82.1 84.4 79.7 79.3 79.4 83.2 85.0 80.3 79.7 79.0 81.6 84.2 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 85.7 83.0 80.0 79.3 81.2 85.0 83.3 79.2 79.5 81.5 85.6 83.7 78.4 80.1 81.5 85.6 83.1 78.6 80.6 81.6 84.9 83.3 79.1 80.6 81.0 84.6 83.1 80.0 80.2 81.1 83.6 83.0 80.0 80.7 81.2 83.9 83.0 79.9 80.3 80.9 83.5 83.0 80.6 80.4 81.6 83.2 82.4 80.4 80.8 81.6 83.3 81.1 80.2 81.0 81.8 83.4 80.5 79.5 81.0 82.2 85.4 83.3 79.2 79.7 81.4 85.0 83.2 79.2 80.5 81.2 83.7 83.0 80.2 80.4 81.2 83.3 81.4 80.0 80.9 81.9 84.4 82.7 79.7 80.4 81.4 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 82.2 84.2 81.8 83.1 83.8 82.3 83.8 82.4 83.6 83.3 82.7 83.5 81.9 83.3 83.3 82.7 83.0 82.6 83.4 83.3 83.2 83.0 82.9 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.1 83.3 83.3 82.1 83.5 82.5 82.8 83.4 81.4 83.5 83.2 82.9 83.8 82.8 83.3 83.3 82.9 83.9 82.1 83.4 82.5 82.5 84.2 82.0 83.7 82.4 83.0 84.2 81.3 84.2 82.2 83.0 84.0 81.0 82.4 83.8 82.0 83.3 83.5 83.1 83.0 82.9 83.3 82.9 83.4 83.0 82.9 83.7 82.1 83.7 82.4 82.8 84.2 81.4 83.1 83.1 82.7 83.6 82.5 1999 2000 2001 81.1 81.6 79.3 81.0 81.6 79.0 81.2 81.7 78.9 80.9 81.9 78.5 81.2 82.1 77.9 81.0 82.0 81.2 81.3 81.3 81.7 81.2 81.6 81.7 81.2 81.5 80.7 81.7 80.0 81.1 81.7 79.1 81.0 82.0 81.3 81.5 81.6 80.6 81.3 81.5 NOTE. Excluded industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. See also note to table 11. 14 Table 14 HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 –.7 .0 –.6 –2.1 3.1 .7 .1 .4 2.7 .3 .3 –.6 .2 –.8 1.3 –1.7 –2.4 .1 –.9 1.0 1.4 –3.4 .7 –.5 1.4 .0 –1.5 –.3 –.1 .6 –.6 –.9 .5 –1.0 1.5 –1.1 1.7 –.9 –.3 1.1 –.1 1.6 –1.1 –.9 2.1 .4 1.0 –1.2 –1.4 .4 –.9 1.7 –1.8 –.4 .1 –.2 .2 –2.0 –1.1 –.1 1.9 –2.3 1.8 –9.4 12.1 –1.2 –19.9 2.8 –3.4 13.2 –3.8 –5.6 –1.7 –6.7 16.3 –2.9 16.5 –15.0 –10.2 9.1 2.2 –5.4 .5 –7.4 4.7 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 2.3 .0 1.6 –1.0 –.2 .4 .6 –.6 1.6 .2 .6 .6 –1.0 .1 .1 .3 .1 1.5 .6 .8 .1 .5 –.2 .4 –.4 .5 –.1 –.1 .9 .0 .2 –.5 –.1 .6 .6 –.1 .9 .6 –.2 .1 –.3 .4 –.1 .0 .3 .0 –.8 .9 1.3 .4 .0 .8 .3 .5 .8 –.4 –.1 1.3 .5 .5 11.6 1.2 4.4 4.1 1.8 4.0 4.0 1.9 7.1 2.6 1.4 1.4 .3 4.8 2.9 –1.3 1.1 6.6 6.9 5.3 8.1 1.5 2.5 4.8 4.0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 .9 –.1 –.8 .0 .8 –1.1 .9 –.8 .5 .3 .8 .4 –1.2 1.0 .1 .0 –.7 .4 .6 .5 –.7 .4 .7 .3 –.5 –.1 –.2 1.5 –.2 .0 –1.0 .1 .2 .6 .2 .3 .2 .1 –.3 –.4 –.3 .0 1.2 .2 1.2 –.4 –.7 –.2 .5 .1 .2 –1.4 –.3 .5 .4 –.1 –.7 –.6 –.1 .8 4.1 2.7 –10.3 .6 4.3 –1.7 –.1 1.0 6.3 1.3 –5.0 .4 7.8 1.7 .6 –1.8 –7.1 1.0 3.1 5.2 1.4 –.9 –2.8 2.9 2.9 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 .0 .3 –.3 .3 .3 .4 –.5 .8 .9 –.2 .8 –.1 –.5 .0 .2 .5 –.5 1.2 .3 .6 .8 .1 .7 .0 .2 .0 .3 .7 .5 –1.2 .6 –.8 –.1 .4 –.5 .3 1.0 .2 .9 2.2 .1 .6 .3 .4 –.6 .4 –.7 –.4 .6 .4 .7 –.1 .8 .5 –.5 .8 –.1 .4 .1 –.1 4.5 2.9 –.2 5.8 2.0 7.1 –2.0 7.6 3.2 1.4 4.5 1.3 3.6 6.2 .0 5.2 –.3 2.0 6.7 1.6 4.5 2.4 1.9 4.7 3.2 1999 2000 2001 .2 .1 –.8 .2 .0 –.2 .2 .5 –.4 –.2 .1 –.5 .6 .2 –.7 –.1 .0 .3 –.7 .4 .3 .1 .1 .7 –.4 .2 –.8 .2 –1.2 .7 1.5 –8.2 1.4 2.4 2.7 –1.4 4.4 –4.5 1.5 1.7 IP (1992=100) 1999 2000 2001 121.2 124.3 121.1 121.5 124.3 120.8 121.7 124.9 120.4 121.5 125.1 119.8 122.2 125.4 119.0 122.0 125.3 122.4 124.5 122.9 124.9 123.0 125.0 123.9 124.6 124.1 123.6 124.3 122.1 121.5 124.5 120.8 121.9 125.2 122.7 124.8 124.1 123.4 122.5 124.5 Capacity (percent of 1992 output) 1999 2000 2001 151.0 153.7 155.5 151.3 153.9 155.6 151.6 154.1 155.6 151.8 154.3 155.7 152.1 154.4 155.8 152.3 154.6 152.5 154.8 152.7 154.9 153.0 155.0 153.2 155.2 153.4 155.3 153.5 155.4 151.3 153.9 155.6 152.1 154.4 152.7 154.9 153.4 155.3 152.4 154.6 Utilization (percent) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 86.3 82.8 78.6 71.9 70.1 86.7 82.8 78.8 73.8 70.3 86.8 82.2 78.9 73.2 71.2 85.2 80.1 78.8 72.5 71.9 86.2 77.2 79.3 72.0 72.9 86.0 75.9 78.9 71.9 73.3 85.4 75.1 79.2 71.1 74.4 84.2 76.3 78.4 70.9 75.2 84.0 77.4 77.5 70.2 76.8 84.2 78.0 76.5 69.2 77.0 83.3 79.2 75.0 68.8 77.1 83.0 79.2 73.4 68.0 77.0 86.6 82.6 78.8 72.9 70.5 85.8 77.8 79.0 72.1 72.7 84.5 76.3 78.4 70.7 75.5 83.5 78.8 75.0 68.7 77.1 85.1 78.8 77.8 71.1 73.9 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 78.7 78.2 79.4 79.3 83.3 79.0 78.5 78.8 80.5 83.5 79.3 78.8 78.0 80.5 83.4 79.4 78.7 79.0 80.9 84.0 79.3 78.9 78.8 81.1 83.6 79.6 78.7 78.6 81.8 83.6 79.6 78.1 78.4 82.2 84.1 79.4 78.7 78.8 82.0 84.1 79.0 78.8 78.6 81.9 84.3 78.9 78.0 79.2 82.9 84.5 78.8 78.5 79.3 83.2 85.1 78.4 78.2 80.2 83.6 85.4 79.0 78.5 78.7 80.1 83.4 79.4 78.8 78.8 81.3 83.8 79.3 78.5 78.6 82.0 84.2 78.7 78.2 79.6 83.2 85.0 79.1 78.5 78.9 81.7 84.1 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 86.1 82.1 78.5 78.3 80.4 85.0 82.8 77.8 78.6 80.5 85.5 83.0 76.8 79.3 80.5 85.3 82.3 77.0 79.7 80.9 84.5 82.4 77.5 79.8 80.3 84.3 82.1 78.5 79.5 80.2 83.2 82.1 78.6 79.9 80.3 83.4 82.1 78.6 79.6 79.9 82.9 81.9 79.5 79.6 80.7 82.5 81.3 79.3 79.9 80.6 82.5 80.0 78.9 80.1 80.8 82.3 79.3 78.4 79.9 81.3 85.5 82.6 77.7 78.7 80.5 84.7 82.3 77.7 79.7 80.5 83.2 82.0 78.9 79.7 80.3 82.4 80.2 78.9 80.0 80.9 83.9 81.8 78.3 79.5 80.5 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 81.2 83.8 80.7 82.1 83.1 81.3 83.2 81.1 82.6 82.6 81.8 82.9 80.6 82.4 82.4 82.1 82.4 81.3 82.4 82.5 82.6 82.2 81.7 82.2 82.4 82.4 82.3 82.1 82.4 81.1 82.7 81.5 81.9 82.5 80.4 82.8 82.1 81.9 83.0 81.8 82.7 82.5 81.9 83.1 81.1 82.8 81.7 81.4 83.3 81.2 83.2 81.4 81.9 83.4 80.6 83.7 81.1 82.0 83.1 80.3 81.4 83.3 80.8 82.4 82.7 82.3 82.3 81.7 82.4 82.0 82.7 82.0 81.9 82.8 81.1 83.2 81.4 81.8 83.3 80.7 82.4 82.3 81.6 82.7 81.6 1999 2000 2001 80.3 80.9 77.9 80.3 80.8 77.7 80.3 81.0 77.4 80.0 81.1 77.0 80.4 81.2 76.4 80.1 81.0 80.2 80.4 80.4 80.6 80.4 80.6 80.9 80.3 80.9 79.6 80.9 78.5 80.3 80.9 77.6 80.2 81.1 80.4 80.6 80.9 79.5 80.4 80.5 NOTE. See note to table 13. 15 EXPLANATORY NOTE The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly indexes on the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. More detailed descriptions of industrial production, capacity utilization, and electric power are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1977. Between 1977 and 1992, the weights for months from January to June were drawn from the year containing the month being estimated and the preceding year; for months from July to December, the weights are drawn from the current and following year. Since mid-1992, the weights change monthly, eliminating distortions in the contributions of several high-technology industries—sectors where weights shift noticeably year-to-year. Thus, the current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since mid 1992 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: IA m + IA m–1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 1992. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 276 individual series based on the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and intermediate products (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include two-digit SIC industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html) . Changes in output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of the statistical tables, see below. Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on either production-worker hours or electric power use by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on electric power use are described below. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. 16 ȍ Ǹȍ Imp m–1 Im–1p m–1 ȍ Imp m ȍ Im–1p m The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 5 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by ½ percentage point (0.05 x 10% = 0.5%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa ). Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 48 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about 85 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 96 percent in the third month, and 97 percent in the fourth month. Data availability by data type is summarized in the table below: Proportion (in percent) of industrial production covered by data available in successive monthly estimates, 1999. Month of estimate Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 191 33 462 47 Production-worker hours 283 28 28 28 Electric power use 0 22 22 22 Federal Reserve estimates4 53 17 3 35 Total industrial production 100 100 100 100 1. Includes provisional series totaling nearly 13 percent of IP that are derived from weekly data and for which the actual data may lag several months. 2. Includes quarterly data totaling 6 percent of IP that, on average, are received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, data are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of the first month of a quarter. 3. This figure refers only to those individual series that both initially and ultimately are based on the hours data. 4. Estimates for series not yet covered by data for physical product or electric power use. 5. Includes monthly and quarterly physical product data totaling 3 percent of IP that typically are available too late for inclusion in the current index but are included at the time of an annual revision. Until the source data for a particular series become available for a given month, estimates for the missing observations are based on other available data, such as labor input, recent trends in output and orders, and anecdotal reports from industry sources. After the fourth month that an estimate is published, indexes are not revised further until the time of an annual revision or a benchmark revision. These historical revisions are typically published in the late fall of each year; the most recent revision was published on December 5, 2000, and incorporated revised source data as well as data from the 1998 Annual Survey of Manufactures and the 1997 Census of Manufactures. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through October 2000; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 2000. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1977, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent during the 1987–99 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–99 period. In most cases (about 83 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. CAPACITY UTILIZATION Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 78 detailed industries (55 in manufacturing, 21 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the two- and three-digit SIC level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including primary and advanced processing industries within manufacturing, durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries. Component industries of the primary- and advanced-processing groups within manufacturing are listed in the note on table 2 of the release. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 15 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries 17 account for a bit more than 80 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap_notes.html). Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC (currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the SPC. Perspective. Over the 1967–1999 period, the average total industry utilization rate is 82.0 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate has been 81.1 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 6 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. ELECTRIC POWER Coverage. Electric power data for sales by utilities to industry users and for electric power produced by cogenerators (manufacturing and mining firms that produce electricity for their own use or to sell to a utility) are generally collected at the 3-digit SIC level for mining and manufacturing. Aggregates for 2-digit industries, as well as for total mining, durable, nondurable, total manufacturing and total industrial electric power use, are computed. An aggregate showing total industry excluding nuclear nondefense is shown separately because the value-added proportion for the nondefense nuclear material series (part of SIC 2819) in total IP is considerably less than its share of total electric power use. In addition, aggregates for utility sales to industrial users and industry generation are computed. While only the major aggregates are shown in the release, data for the 2- and 3-digit industries are available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Source Data. Electric power data are collected from a sample of utilities and cogenerators covering all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. The primary criterion for inclusion of a utility in the panel is whether the utility provides electric power to industrial customers. A comparison of Federal Reserve kilowatt-hour aggregates to estimates from the 1998 Annual Survey of Manufactures (the most recent available) suggests the Federal Reserve data cover about 75 percent of the overall sales to manufacturing in that year. The cogeneration panel covers about 50 percent of cogeneration used directly by manufacturers. In order to provide more complete coverage and correct for any shortcomings of the survey, the series are benchmarked at the 3-digit industry level to the latest available data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufactures. Methodology. The data we receive from utilities and cogenerators are edited for anomalies and aggregated, using self weights, to the 3-digit SIC industry levels and above. Where reports are late or unavailable for some reason, responses are estimated. Seasonal Adjustment. Series are seasonal adjusted at the 3-digit SIC level, with seasonally-adjusted aggregates typically computed as sums of seasonally adjusted components. The seasonal adjustment procedure (Census X-12 program) is used without trading-day adjustments because the reporting periods of the various utilities are not the same. A leap year adjustment is also made where appropriate. Description of Tables. Table 1 summarizes the latest changes in output for the major market and industry groupings. Fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter changes for the past three years are shown. Output changes expressed at an annual rate for the past four quarters as well as monthly changes for the latest four months are shown. In addition, year-over-year changes are displayed for the latest IP month. Table 2, which is in the same format as table 1, summarizes the latest changes in output for a special group of aggregates that have been constructed for analytical purposes. The total index is sub-divided into two broad categories: an energy grouping, which includes consumer energy products, commercial energy products, energy materials, and oil and gas well drilling, and a nonenergy grouping, which includes the remaining portion of the total index. Within the nonenergy aggregate, several other analytically useful categories are shown. One of these is a grouping of high-technology industries, which is composed of semiconductors and related electronic components, and industries that use a large concentration of these parts—computers and communication equipment. Other sub-groupings of the market and industry structures excluding this high-technology grouping and motor vehicles and parts are shown. Table 3 displays the last nine months of motor vehicle assemblies, shown at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Seasonal factors for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.html). Monthly changes in the IP indexes for the corresponding motor vehicle series will differ slightly from the monthly changes in assemblies, mainly because the IP indexes are built from a weighted (based on relative values) aggregate of the individual models. Tables 4 and 5 show seasonally adjusted indexes for recent months for the major market and industry groups included on table 1 and the special aggregates displayed on table 2. Table 6 summarizes the capacity utilization for the major industry groupings as well as for a few special aggregates. In addition to the utilization rates for the most recent four months and four quarters, the 1967–1999 average of utilization rates and operating rates for relevant cyclical peaks and troughs also are shown for each series. Table 7 summarizes capacity growth. Average rates of growth in capacity for selected historical periods and for the most recent five years (on a fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter basis) are shown. In addition, growth rates for capacity on a annual-average basis are shown for the latest four quarters; the capacity growth rate for the current IP month is shown as well. Table 8 shows total products expressed in gross values in billions of chained 1996 dollars at an annual rate. Compiling the IP index using gross-value weights facilitates comparison with other dollar-based data. The gross-value system focuses on products that leave the industrial sector and includes both final and intermediate products. The materials consumed in making final and intermediate products are implicitly included in the value weights applied to product series. The gross-product weights are derived from Census of Manufactures and Annual Survey of Manufactures data. Table 9 shows diffusion indexes, which are calculated as the percentage of IP series that increased over the relevant span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half of the percentage of series that were unchanged. Because available source data for the current IP month account for a little less than half of the total index, the diffusion indexes are published with a one-month lag. 18 Table 10 shows the most recent six months in index form (both seasonally and not seasonally adjusted) of electric power use by industry for the major industry aggregates. Tables 11–14 display historical seasonally adjusted data for total IP and manufacturing as well as the aggregates excluding high-technology industries. Monthly changes in output as well as indexes for output, utilization, and capacity are shown. Note: The summary tables in the G17 release do not include all of the publicly available data. The more detailed series for IP, utilization, capacity, and electric power are available at the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/download.html). REFERENCES AND RELEASE DATES References. The annual revision published in early December 2000 will be described in an article to be published in the March 2001 Federal Reserve Bulletin. The annual revision published late 1999 is described more completely in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol.86 (March 2000). A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital_stock_doc-latest.pdf. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, and March 2000). Release Schedule for 2001 At 9:15 a.m. on January 17, February 16, March 16, April 17, May 14, June 15, July 17, August 15, September 14, October 16, November 16, and December 14.
