The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EDT) July 15, 2020 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Total industrial production rose 5.4 percent in June after increasing 1.4 percent in May; even so, it remained 10.9 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. For the second quarter as a whole, the index fell 42.6 percent at an annual rate, its largest quarterly decrease since the industrial sector retrenched after (over) Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary Seasonally adjusted 2012=100 Percent change Industrial production 2020 Jan.r 2020 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep Total index Previous estimates 109.2 109.2 109.3 109.4 104.5 104.4 91.2 91.3 92.5 92.6 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 101.9 104.6 98.4 109.5 120.4 115.3 102.7 105.8 98.0 109.8 120.2 114.7 96.7 99.9 90.3 104.5 115.3 111.1 82.0 87.2 69.2 92.0 101.4 99.1 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 105.0 105.0 135.2 98.6 104.9 105.0 133.2 102.2 99.6 99.4 130.7 99.1 83.8 84.0 121.7 101.0 97.5 -.4 -.4 .1 .1 -4.4 -4.6 -12.7 -12.5 1.4 1.4 5.4 -10.8 85.2 90.2 74.3 93.7 104.2 98.3 92.9 98.3 83.1 96.5 105.5 101.4 -1.4 -.9 -2.8 .8 2.4 .0 .8 1.2 -.4 .3 -.2 -.5 -5.9 -5.5 -7.9 -4.8 -4.1 -3.1 -15.3 -12.7 -23.4 -11.9 -12.0 -10.8 3.9 3.4 7.4 1.8 2.7 -.8 9.1 9.0 11.8 3.0 1.3 3.1 -10.2 -6.8 -18.2 -10.7 -9.8 -11.4 87.0 87.2 114.4 97.4 93.3 -.1 -.1 1.0 -4.7 .0 .0 -1.5 3.6 -5.1 -5.3 -1.9 -3.1 -15.9 -15.5 -6.8 1.9 3.8 3.8 -6.1 -3.5 7.2 -11.2 -2.9 4.2 -16.9 .6 111.0 101.5 June ’19 to June ’20 Capacity growth Percent of capacity Average 19722019 198889 high 199091 low 199495 high 2009 low 2019 June 2020 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep June ’19 to June ’20 Total industry Previous estimates 79.8 85.1 78.8 85.0 66.7 77.7 76.9 76.8 76.9 76.8 73.5 73.2 64.2 64.0 65.1 64.8 68.6 1.0 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 78.2 85.5 77.3 84.6 63.7 75.7 84.3 84.7 88.6 93.2 78.3 78.2 91.3 73.9 71.3 71.1 87.6 71.1 60.0 60.0 81.8 72.3 62.3 62.2 77.0 69.5 .6 86.3 93.2 75.2 75.1 89.2 73.5 66.9 87.2 85.2 75.2 75.1 90.5 71.1 75.0 72.3 1.1 2.8 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.2 80.3 76.7 87.8 86.4 83.3 84.7 78.1 77.3 90.0 87.8 80.6 76.4 63.9 66.5 88.7 75.2 75.2 88.7 74.6 73.8 87.7 74.9 74.0 86.1 71.3 70.1 80.4 62.7 58.5 77.1 63.1 61.7 76.4 66.5 67.3 .9 .9 1.0 Capacity utilization r Revised. p Preliminary. Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information, respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS. 1 World War II. Manufacturing output climbed 7.2 percent in June, as all major industries posted increases. The largest gain—105.0 percent—was registered by motor vehicles and parts, while factory production elsewhere rose 3.9 percent. Mining production fell 2.9 percent, and the output of utilities increased 4.2 percent. At 97.5 percent of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production was 10.8 percent lower in June than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 3.5 percentage points to 68.6 percent in June, a rate that is 11.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 1.9 percentage points above its trough during the Great Recession. Market Groups The major market groups posted broad-based gains in June, but each still remained below its pre-pandemic level. The jump in the output of motor vehicles and parts contributed to the largest gains among the market groups: Consumer durables, business equipment, and durable materials posted increases of 36.6 percent, 11.8 percent, and 7.4 percent, respectively. The indexes for business supplies and for defense and space equipment each rose more than 4 percent. The only decline among the major market groups was posted by energy materials, held down by further reductions in oil extraction. Industry Groups Manufacturing output increased 7.2 percent in June, but it was still 11.1 percent below its pre-pandemic February level; factory output fell 47.0 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter. The index for durable manufacturing rose 11.6 percent in June. Despite substantial gains in the past two months, the output of motor vehicles and parts remained nearly 25 percent below its February level. The index for nondurables rose 3.4 percent, with sizable gains for apparel and leather and for plastics and rubber products. The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) increased 2.2 percent. The output of utilities rose 4.2 percent in June, as both gas and electric utilities posted gains. Mining output fell 2.9 percent, with declines in nearly all categories. The index for oil and gas well drilling fell 18.0 percent in June and was about 70 percent below its year-earlier level. For the second quarter, mining output declined 42.7 percent at an annual rate. Capacity utilization for manufacturing in June was 66.9 percent, 4.6 percentage points higher than in May and 3.2 percentage points above its recession trough of June 2009. The operating rate for durable manufacturing increased 6.7 percentage points in June to 64.3 percent, 5.9 percentage points above its 2009 low. Capacity utilization for nondurables rose 2.4 percentage points to 70.6 percent, 1.8 percentage points above its 2009 low. The operating rate for mining fell to 75.0 percent, somewhat below its low in 2016 but slightly above its historical low in 1986. Note: Revised Estimates of Industrial Capacity The estimates for industrial capacity for 2020 were revised for this release. The revisions reflect updated measures of physical capacity from various government and private sources as well as updated estimates of capital spending by industry. Measured from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020, capacity for the industrial sector is now expected to be flat, whereas previously it was estimated to rise 1.3 percent. Manufacturing capacity is estimated to edge down 0.2 percent, a downward revision of 1.0 percentage point. Mining capacity also revised down and is now expected to decline 2.1 percent; it had been expected to expand 2.9 percent. This downward revision primarily reflects a reduction in capacity for oil and gas extraction. The gain in capacity for utilities, at 3.2 percent, is only 0.1 percentage point lower than previously estimated. 2 Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change Motor Vehicle Assemblies Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Industrial Capacity Gross Value of Final Products and Nonindustrial Supplies Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups Historical Statistics: Total Industry Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Industrial Production: Reliability Estimates Further detail is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the indexes of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization in the second half of 2020. New annual benchmark data for manufacturing for 2017 and 2018 will be incorporated, as well as other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels). The weights for market-group splits of the industry-level indexes will be updated with information from the 2012 benchmark input-output accounts from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The updated IP indexes will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present. Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data for manufacturing through the fourth quarter of 2019 from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations. 3 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization 175 150 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 Total Manufacturing 175 150 125 125 Capacity 100 100 75 75 Production Production: 2016 to present 50 112 50 104 96 88 2016 25 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2018 2000 2020 80 2005 2010 2015 2020 Percent of capacity 95 25 95 Utilization 85 85 75 75 65 65 55 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 55 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 4 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization Consumer goods Ratio scale, 2012=100 Equipment 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 Nondurable 90 Ratio scale, 2012=100 110 110 90 Business 90 90 Durable 80 80 70 70 70 70 Defense and Space 60 50 140 140 140 140 130 130 130 130 120 120 120 110 110 100 100 100 90 90 90 90 80 80 80 70 70 60 2000 2005 2010 Nonindustrial supplies 2015 2020 Ratio scale, 2012=100 120 110 Construction 100 2000 2005 Industrial materials 2010 2015 2020 50 Ratio scale, 2012=100 110 Non-energy Other business 70 2000 2005 2010 Capacity utilization 2015 2020 Percent of capacity 90 Primary and semifinished processing 85 80 2000 2005 2010 Capacity utilization 90 95 85 90 80 75 75 70 70 Excluding utilities 80 Energy 2015 2020 70 Percent of capacity 95 Crude processing 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 Finished processing 65 65 65 65 60 60 60 60 55 55 55 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 55 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 5 3. Industrial production of selected industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 120 110 100 Excluding high-technology industries 90 80 70 Total IP 60 55 50 45 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Industrial production 2010 2015 2020 40 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 140 120 Non-Energy 100 90 80 Energy 70 60 50 45 40 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Industrial production 2010 2015 2020 35 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 140 120 100 80 60 Motor Vehicles and Parts 40 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 3344), computers (NAICS 3341), and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 6 Table 1 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item 2019 proportion1 Annual rate 2019 2020 Q4 Q1r Q2p Monthly rate 2020 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep June ’19 to June ’20 2017 2018 2019 100.00 3.6 4.0 -.7 .4 -6.8 -42.6 -.4 .1 -4.4 -12.7 1.4 5.4 -10.8 54.17 27.53 6.22 3.22 .13 .83 2.04 21.31 16.29 9.26 .17 5.45 1.00 5.02 2.7 1.7 .7 .6 1.3 -.5 1.4 1.9 1.6 2.5 -10.5 2.1 -4.5 3.0 2.1 1.5 3.0 3.5 5.7 -1.6 4.0 1.0 -.1 -.2 -5.0 1.2 -5.4 4.7 -1.0 -1.3 -3.6 -5.0 8.4 -3.2 -2.4 -.5 -.2 1.6 -8.6 -1.5 -7.9 -1.7 .6 1.4 -6.6 -11.1 .7 -2.3 -1.4 3.9 1.3 7.7 -8.2 -5.9 -12.8 12.9 -8.3 -8.1 -11.3 -19.5 -11.3 -5.8 .5 -7.1 .5 .1 -12.5 1.5 6.4 -28.7 -43.9 -37.6 -77.9 -92.9 -27.4 -49.8 -45.0 -19.7 -24.6 -28.4 -57.4 -12.2 -35.3 -.7 -.8 -.9 1.4 2.5 -1.1 -2.2 1.4 -1.5 -.3 -1.1 -1.8 .3 3.9 -5.6 .7 1.2 2.2 3.7 -.5 1.1 .5 .8 .4 .1 1.8 .4 3.4 2.5 -5.6 -5.5 -17.5 -28.8 -1.3 -5.5 -4.8 -1.9 -1.1 -1.7 -6.4 1.2 -4.9 -4.9 -14.4 -12.7 -40.4 -68.6 -6.6 -21.3 -15.7 -5.7 -8.0 -8.9 -27.6 -5.3 -7.7 2.7 3.4 3.4 22.9 77.7 -2.4 12.5 3.8 .3 1.2 1.5 17.7 .5 -1.6 -2.6 7.4 9.0 36.6 91.5 4.5 6.2 8.5 3.6 3.3 3.3 10.9 3.0 1.2 4.7 -10.3 -6.8 -16.0 -22.4 -8.9 -10.0 -8.6 -4.1 -5.0 -6.4 -15.5 -.1 -13.0 -.9 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 9.51 2.30 2.22 5.00 2.32 4.8 .2 4.1 7.6 -.8 3.9 3.6 3.6 4.2 6.7 -2.0 -8.4 5.6 -2.2 8.4 -.5 -10.4 3.6 2.4 7.2 -19.6 -60.2 9.8 -7.7 -2.3 -61.0 -95.8 -16.7 -51.5 -28.5 -2.8 -11.1 .9 -.9 -1.9 -.4 -4.1 2.2 -.1 1.7 -7.9 -25.8 -1.8 -3.9 -2.2 -23.4 -65.5 -5.2 -19.5 -11.8 7.4 48.3 -1.6 7.3 5.5 11.8 64.5 7.4 4.7 4.5 -18.2 -48.4 3.2 -13.8 -2.0 Construction supplies Business supplies 5.45 8.71 4.1 2.3 2.5 .0 .6 -1.0 .3 .6 6.6 -6.8 -41.6 -42.8 2.4 -.3 -.2 .6 -4.1 -5.3 -12.0 -11.9 2.7 1.2 1.3 4.1 -9.8 -11.3 45.83 27.85 16.49 2.86 4.82 8.81 11.35 .37 1.76 6.12 17.99 4.8 2.7 2.7 .7 1.8 4.0 2.7 -1.3 -3.6 4.9 8.2 6.1 3.2 3.9 3.9 5.8 2.7 2.2 5.4 -.3 4.3 10.4 -.3 -2.0 -2.3 -8.7 .6 -1.8 -1.4 -.3 -3.7 -1.6 2.3 .1 -.8 -2.3 -10.6 .2 -.9 1.4 .7 5.6 .9 1.7 -5.0 -3.4 -5.6 -15.3 -7.0 -1.7 .0 -3.1 1.8 -1.3 -7.5 -41.1 -45.6 -55.6 -86.0 -36.4 -50.8 -28.5 -68.6 -35.6 -23.8 -33.5 .0 .2 -.1 -1.0 -.9 .6 .8 1.6 2.0 .7 -.3 -.5 -.6 -.1 .7 -.1 -.3 -1.3 -1.0 -1.2 -1.8 -.5 -3.1 -3.7 -5.4 -15.2 -2.9 -3.5 -1.3 -5.2 -2.6 -1.1 -2.1 -10.8 -14.1 -19.0 -50.7 -9.9 -15.0 -7.3 -28.7 -6.6 -5.8 -5.7 -.8 1.5 3.1 32.0 -.1 .2 -.5 11.2 -4.7 -.1 -4.0 3.1 5.2 7.4 38.7 3.6 2.8 2.6 4.6 3.5 1.6 -.1 -11.4 -11.5 -15.5 -24.9 -10.4 -15.2 -5.6 -22.1 -6.0 -4.9 -11.2 321 327 331 332 333 334 75.34 73.58 38.16 1.44 2.27 2.93 5.79 5.41 4.90 2.5 2.7 2.6 5.4 5.3 4.4 3.0 9.3 3.5 2.2 2.5 4.1 -.9 1.9 6.2 4.9 5.8 4.5 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 3.0 -.5 -4.1 -1.3 -4.0 6.3 -.5 -.2 -1.5 6.5 -1.3 .6 -1.1 1.1 6.2 -5.5 -5.6 -9.7 4.0 9.6 -8.7 -2.9 -10.0 6.1 -47.0 -47.0 -58.1 -39.1 -42.7 -71.7 -39.4 -53.4 -17.5 -.1 -.2 -.6 2.4 3.7 -.4 .1 -2.2 .5 .0 .0 .2 -.8 -.6 -3.6 1.1 -.4 1.2 -5.1 -5.1 -7.7 -2.9 -5.5 -3.9 -4.1 -2.8 -1.4 -15.9 -16.0 -21.9 -11.2 -15.4 -22.1 -11.6 -19.4 -5.0 3.8 3.9 6.8 1.7 8.1 -5.1 2.4 3.7 -1.5 7.2 7.4 11.6 1.7 4.4 2.5 1.7 6.4 5.6 -11.2 -11.0 -14.3 -7.1 -6.1 -27.3 -11.3 -15.8 2.0 335 3361–3 1.83 5.50 .0 -.3 3.5 5.5 -2.1 -6.8 -8.0 -15.3 3.1 -20.7 -32.4 -94.5 .0 2.2 2.2 3.1 -4.0 -29.4 -6.5 -76.3 -2.5 120.0 1.7 105.0 -10.1 -24.6 3364–9 337 339 4.18 1.20 2.72 -.9 -1.7 -1.2 2.7 1.6 2.2 .5 -.7 .6 3.9 2.3 -3.6 -38.1 -5.3 -10.8 -59.8 -58.3 -49.1 -8.9 -.3 .0 -1.6 .8 -1.3 -6.1 -6.0 -5.6 -22.3 -24.5 -18.4 8.8 13.0 6.7 4.5 5.3 10.2 -23.7 -14.0 -11.3 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 35.43 11.27 .63 .18 2.37 1.26 3.25 12.97 3.49 2.7 3.1 .2 -10.0 -2.6 -1.3 2.7 4.3 2.8 .9 .2 .9 -5.2 .0 -2.7 -1.2 2.9 .0 -.8 1.7 -3.6 -8.5 -2.6 -3.2 -1.6 -1.5 -2.6 1.2 6.3 -1.2 -8.0 4.2 .3 -6.5 -1.3 1.3 -1.0 .4 -4.6 -11.2 4.9 -2.3 -.5 -2.4 -2.5 -33.2 -27.3 -57.8 -56.1 -23.5 -65.2 -57.1 -19.0 -56.8 .3 -.9 1.3 -1.6 1.8 1.7 2.7 .2 .8 -.3 .0 -.7 1.9 -1.6 2.0 -1.7 -.5 .5 -2.3 -1.5 -5.0 -6.1 -.1 -8.8 -7.3 -.5 -5.7 -10.0 -8.6 -24.0 -26.7 -3.5 -24.7 -16.7 -5.8 -20.5 1.4 1.3 12.5 16.8 -5.4 9.8 2.1 .9 4.4 3.4 3.6 4.7 10.3 3.4 3.7 4.3 1.8 8.7 -7.4 -5.8 -17.0 -14.9 -1.8 -19.4 -16.7 -3.5 -15.2 1133,5111 1.75 -3.5 -10.0 -8.0 -11.2 -4.0 -45.7 2.1 1.3 -5.7 -10.9 -1.5 2.2 -18.0 21 2211,2 2211 2212 14.24 10.42 8.68 1.74 11.3 3.1 2.0 10.1 13.9 2.6 .8 12.8 2.3 -1.0 -.9 -2.1 1.9 4.7 -1.6 43.6 -.9 -22.6 -17.3 -44.6 -42.7 .0 -5.1 31.0 1.0 -4.7 -4.0 -8.3 -1.5 3.6 1.8 13.1 -1.9 -3.1 -.1 -17.4 -6.8 1.9 -1.9 24.2 -6.1 -3.5 -2.1 -9.7 -2.9 4.2 4.6 2.1 -16.9 .6 .9 -.9 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. The proportion data are the relative weights for the rates of change for each series in the computation of the change in total industrial production in the following year. Note. Under the industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of a NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/20200715/default sup.htm). Under market groups, in the products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas well drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 7 Table 2 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Annual rate 2020 Q1r Q2p 2019 proportion 2017 2018 2019 2019 Q4 100.00 3.6 4.0 -.7 .4 -6.8 25.94 5.02 2.38 .55 4.71 13.27 7.0 3.0 2.1 37.2 2.4 10.5 8.7 4.7 2.6 19.3 3.2 12.8 .8 -1.7 -.1 -22.1 -1.6 3.6 2.9 12.9 3.1 -40.0 -3.0 3.5 74.06 2.5 2.2 -1.2 3341 3342 1.83 .31 .47 1.9 12.2 -5.1 5.4 1.5 7.0 3344 1.06 2.4 72.23 Monthly rate June ’19 to June ’20 2020 Jan.r Feb. -42.6 -.4 .1 -4.4 -12.7 1.4 5.4 -10.8 -12.5 -28.7 -13.6 -7.1 -14.7 -4.8 -31.1 -.7 -40.8 -93.1 -21.6 -37.2 -1.5 -5.6 -2.2 .0 -1.4 .1 .3 2.5 1.1 .6 1.7 -1.2 -3.0 -4.9 -6.2 -1.3 -.9 -2.6 -4.8 2.7 -8.2 -27.8 -7.6 -5.0 -4.2 -2.6 -3.6 -36.9 .0 -5.4 1.2 4.7 5.6 -18.0 5.7 -2.2 -10.4 -.9 -9.7 -70.1 -2.0 -14.3 -.5 -4.7 -46.2 -.1 .1 -4.9 -15.5 3.6 7.0 -10.9 6.9 -.1 8.2 9.7 1.7 1.7 -2.6 9.9 -15.7 -10.9 -26.1 -2.2 -.6 .8 -2.5 -1.4 .5 -1.6 .2 .2 -.7 -2.8 -6.3 -.1 -.4 -3.9 .5 1.8 3.7 .7 1.8 -3.3 -2.2 5.9 8.4 15.7 -.1 -9.7 -.1 -1.9 .6 -3.0 .2 1.7 5.1 2.6 2.1 -1.4 -.7 -4.8 -47.0 -.1 .1 -5.1 -15.8 3.7 7.1 -11.2 5.50 2.70 2.34 -.3 -5.4 2.6 5.5 9.5 4.4 -6.8 -7.7 -5.6 -15.3 -21.7 -8.3 -20.7 -21.6 -19.8 -94.5 -98.0 -88.9 2.2 4.2 .4 3.1 4.3 1.8 -29.4 -37.9 -21.3 -76.3 -97.3 -62.4 120.0 1297.7 65.2 105.0 209.6 66.3 -24.6 -27.4 -19.4 66.74 19.69 7.96 5.44 6.08 25.21 2.8 1.7 5.8 4.2 2.4 2.9 1.8 .3 2.8 2.5 -1.2 3.0 -.9 -.7 -1.4 .5 -1.8 -1.8 .6 .7 3.3 .3 -1.1 -.5 -3.4 -.7 -19.2 6.7 -4.3 -2.3 -39.6 -30.4 -53.3 -41.7 -44.6 -40.9 -.2 -.3 -3.6 2.4 .5 .2 -.1 .5 -.7 -.1 .5 -.7 -3.0 -1.9 -4.8 -4.1 -5.2 -2.6 -12.1 -10.1 -18.8 -12.1 -13.7 -11.2 1.8 2.1 4.8 2.7 3.2 -.3 3.6 4.0 6.6 1.3 3.7 2.9 -10.1 -6.4 -16.5 -9.8 -12.6 -11.1 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 98.17 73.50 36.50 3.7 2.5 2.7 3.9 2.1 4.0 -.8 -1.4 -1.6 .2 -.7 -2.0 -6.9 -5.6 -10.0 -43.1 -47.7 -59.9 -.4 -.1 -.6 .2 .0 .3 -4.5 -5.2 -8.0 -12.9 -16.2 -23.0 1.4 3.9 7.2 5.5 7.4 12.2 -11.0 -11.5 -15.2 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 94.50 69.84 32.84 3.9 2.7 3.2 3.9 1.9 3.9 -.3 -.8 -.2 1.4 .8 1.1 -6.0 -4.3 -7.8 -36.9 -40.0 -46.7 -.6 -.3 -1.1 .0 -.3 -.3 -2.9 -3.2 -3.9 -9.9 -12.3 -15.0 .0 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.9 4.5 -10.0 -10.1 -12.6 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 92.67 68.01 3.9 2.8 3.8 1.8 -.5 -1.0 1.2 .6 -6.0 -4.3 -37.3 -40.6 -.6 -.3 .0 -.2 -3.0 -3.2 -10.1 -12.5 .0 2.0 2.9 3.9 -10.2 -10.4 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 9.81 18.03 .3 4.2 4.1 2.7 -3.0 -1.4 -2.1 -.1 -7.8 -.9 -57.1 -38.6 -.3 .5 -.1 -.8 -6.5 -2.2 -20.7 -10.7 4.5 .1 10.9 2.5 -14.3 -9.9 Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials r Mar. r Apr. r r May June p r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. The composition of manufacturing is specified in a note for the summary table. Table 3 M OTOR V EHICLE A SSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2019 average 2019 Q3 Q4 2020 Q1 Q2 2020 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 10.88 2.51 8.36 8.02 .35 11.08 2.57 8.51 8.16 .35 10.51 2.43 8.07 7.77 .31 9.80 2.37 7.43 7.16 .27 3.73 .79 2.94 2.84 .10 10.82 2.61 8.20 7.90 .31 11.39 2.70 8.70 8.39 .31 7.19 1.80 5.38 5.18 .20 .11 .02 .09 .05 .03 2.65 .64 2.02 1.92 .09 8.44 1.72 6.71 6.54 .17 Memo Autos and light trucks 10.53 10.73 10.20 9.53 3.63 10.51 11.08 6.99 .08 2.56 8.27 Item Note. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s website, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 8 Table 4 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY 2012 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2019 proportion 2019 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2020 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep 100.00 109.0 110.0 109.7 109.2 109.3 104.5 91.2 92.5 97.5 54.17 27.53 6.22 3.22 .13 .83 2.04 21.31 16.29 9.26 .17 5.45 1.00 5.02 103.8 104.7 115.4 123.4 127.6 103.1 109.3 101.9 99.2 107.2 62.9 93.2 75.6 110.5 105.3 106.7 122.5 138.5 126.8 104.5 108.8 102.7 99.0 107.2 62.0 93.0 73.2 115.0 104.7 105.5 119.3 130.9 125.0 106.6 109.1 102.0 99.9 109.8 61.9 92.3 71.3 108.2 103.8 104.6 121.0 134.1 123.7 104.3 110.6 100.4 99.6 108.6 60.8 92.6 74.1 102.2 104.5 105.8 123.7 139.1 123.1 105.5 111.1 101.3 100.0 108.7 61.9 92.9 76.6 104.8 98.7 99.9 102.0 99.0 121.4 99.7 105.8 99.3 98.9 106.9 57.9 94.0 72.9 99.7 84.5 87.2 60.8 31.0 113.4 78.5 89.2 93.7 91.0 97.3 41.9 89.0 67.3 102.3 87.3 90.2 74.8 55.2 110.7 88.3 92.5 93.9 92.1 98.8 49.4 89.4 66.2 99.6 93.8 98.3 102.2 105.6 115.7 93.8 100.4 97.3 95.0 102.1 54.7 92.1 67.0 104.3 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 9.51 2.30 2.22 5.00 2.32 99.7 100.5 114.4 93.8 103.6 101.8 107.1 115.3 94.3 104.1 101.3 104.4 115.9 94.4 105.4 98.4 92.8 116.9 93.6 103.4 98.0 89.0 119.5 93.5 105.1 90.3 66.0 117.3 89.9 102.8 69.2 22.8 111.1 72.3 90.7 74.3 33.8 109.4 77.6 95.6 83.1 55.7 117.5 81.3 99.9 Construction supplies Business supplies 5.45 8.71 116.4 104.1 116.3 104.5 117.5 104.1 120.4 103.8 120.2 104.5 115.3 98.9 101.4 87.2 104.2 88.2 105.5 91.8 45.83 27.85 16.49 2.86 4.82 8.81 11.35 .37 1.76 6.12 17.99 114.9 104.8 105.8 100.1 110.6 105.0 103.3 98.7 89.7 105.2 129.1 115.3 105.3 107.0 106.2 111.1 104.9 102.7 99.5 89.1 104.3 129.5 115.2 105.9 107.2 105.6 111.2 105.6 103.8 99.2 89.6 105.5 128.1 115.3 106.1 107.1 104.6 110.1 106.2 104.6 100.7 91.4 106.3 127.8 114.7 105.5 107.0 105.3 110.0 105.9 103.3 99.8 90.3 104.4 127.2 111.1 101.6 101.3 89.3 106.7 102.1 101.9 94.6 87.9 103.3 124.4 99.1 87.3 82.0 44.1 96.2 86.7 94.4 67.5 82.1 97.3 117.4 98.3 88.6 84.6 58.2 96.1 87.0 94.0 75.0 78.3 97.2 112.7 101.4 93.2 90.8 80.7 99.6 89.4 96.4 78.4 81.1 98.7 112.6 321 327 331 332 333 334 75.34 73.58 38.16 1.44 2.27 2.93 5.79 5.41 4.90 103.9 105.1 106.6 129.9 119.5 94.9 103.1 90.9 128.9 104.9 106.1 108.8 128.7 118.0 96.4 103.1 91.5 130.1 105.1 106.4 108.5 129.5 120.4 98.4 102.7 92.3 130.8 105.0 106.2 107.9 132.7 124.9 98.0 102.9 90.3 131.5 104.9 106.1 108.1 131.5 124.1 94.4 104.0 89.9 133.0 99.6 100.7 99.8 127.7 117.3 90.8 99.8 87.4 131.1 83.8 84.6 77.9 113.4 99.2 70.7 88.2 70.4 124.6 87.0 88.0 83.2 115.4 107.3 67.1 90.3 73.0 122.8 93.3 94.4 92.9 117.3 112.1 68.7 91.9 77.7 129.6 335 3361–3 1.83 5.50 101.4 116.2 102.8 130.4 103.0 123.9 103.0 126.7 105.3 130.7 101.2 92.3 94.6 21.9 92.3 48.2 93.8 98.8 3364–9 337 339 4.18 1.20 2.72 102.0 106.0 100.8 102.3 106.9 101.7 102.9 107.0 101.1 93.8 106.7 101.1 92.2 107.6 99.8 86.6 101.2 94.2 67.3 76.4 76.9 73.2 86.3 82.0 76.5 90.9 90.4 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 35.43 11.27 .63 .18 2.37 1.26 3.25 12.97 3.49 103.4 109.8 97.1 63.9 93.6 93.4 104.8 100.6 107.3 103.2 109.7 97.1 63.1 93.0 93.7 104.3 100.3 108.1 104.0 112.2 96.6 63.0 94.0 92.7 105.7 100.0 107.8 104.3 111.2 97.9 62.0 95.7 94.3 108.6 100.2 108.8 104.0 111.2 97.2 63.2 94.2 96.2 106.8 99.7 109.3 101.6 109.6 92.4 59.3 94.1 87.7 99.0 99.2 103.1 91.4 100.1 70.2 43.4 90.8 66.0 82.4 93.4 81.9 92.8 101.4 78.9 50.7 85.9 72.5 84.2 94.3 85.5 95.9 105.0 82.6 56.0 88.8 75.2 87.8 96.0 92.9 1133,5111 1.75 72.2 70.3 69.1 70.5 71.5 67.4 60.1 59.2 60.5 21 2211,2 2211 2212 14.24 10.42 8.68 1.74 133.4 106.5 104.0 123.0 132.6 109.7 104.8 140.7 133.8 103.4 101.5 116.6 135.2 98.6 97.5 107.0 133.2 102.2 99.2 121.1 130.7 99.1 99.2 100.0 121.7 101.0 97.3 124.2 114.4 97.4 95.2 112.2 111.0 101.5 99.6 114.5 Item Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. Note. Refer to the notes for table 1. 9 Table 5 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : S PECIAL AGGREGATES 2012 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2019 proportion 2019 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2020 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep 100.00 109.0 110.0 109.7 109.2 109.3 104.5 91.2 92.5 97.5 25.94 5.02 2.38 .55 4.71 13.27 122.0 110.5 111.8 63.0 102.7 137.7 123.2 115.0 112.5 60.5 105.2 137.1 120.7 108.2 111.9 60.1 98.9 138.1 119.0 102.2 109.5 60.0 97.5 138.2 119.3 104.8 110.8 60.4 99.1 136.6 115.6 99.7 103.9 59.6 98.2 133.1 110.1 102.3 95.4 43.0 90.8 126.4 105.5 99.6 91.9 27.1 90.7 119.6 106.8 104.3 97.1 22.3 95.9 117.0 74.06 104.1 105.0 105.2 105.2 105.3 100.1 84.6 87.6 93.7 3341 3342 1.83 .31 .47 156.1 128.6 137.0 159.1 135.1 137.2 159.5 134.1 136.1 158.6 135.2 132.8 156.3 135.9 130.7 156.7 136.2 129.7 152.2 127.7 129.6 151.6 122.8 130.3 154.3 127.3 131.2 3344 1.06 173.3 176.5 178.1 177.9 174.4 175.5 170.3 170.7 173.6 72.23 102.5 103.4 103.7 103.6 103.8 98.5 82.9 86.0 92.1 5.50 2.70 2.34 116.2 110.4 121.7 130.4 133.5 128.5 123.9 123.3 125.7 126.7 128.5 126.1 130.7 133.9 128.4 92.3 83.1 101.1 21.9 2.2 38.0 48.2 31.1 62.8 98.8 96.4 104.4 66.74 19.69 7.96 5.44 6.08 25.21 101.6 100.6 97.4 116.3 97.4 102.0 101.6 100.4 98.0 116.3 97.6 101.9 102.3 101.2 98.4 117.5 97.2 102.7 102.0 100.9 94.8 120.3 97.7 103.0 101.9 101.3 94.1 120.2 98.2 102.2 98.8 99.4 89.6 115.3 93.1 99.6 86.9 89.4 72.7 101.3 80.4 88.4 88.4 91.2 76.3 104.1 83.0 88.1 91.6 94.9 81.3 105.4 86.1 90.7 98.17 73.50 36.50 108.0 102.5 103.9 109.0 103.4 106.0 108.6 103.6 105.7 108.2 103.5 105.1 108.3 103.5 105.4 103.4 98.0 96.9 90.1 82.2 74.6 91.4 85.4 80.0 96.4 91.7 89.8 94.50 69.84 32.84 108.7 103.1 105.4 109.1 103.2 105.9 109.0 103.8 106.5 108.4 103.5 105.4 108.3 103.3 105.1 105.1 100.0 101.0 94.7 87.7 85.8 94.7 89.4 88.2 97.5 92.9 92.1 92.67 68.01 107.7 101.5 108.0 101.5 107.9 102.2 107.3 101.9 107.2 101.6 104.0 98.3 93.5 86.0 93.6 87.7 96.3 91.2 9.81 18.03 102.9 105.8 104.7 105.5 104.7 106.5 104.4 107.0 104.2 106.2 97.5 103.8 77.3 92.7 80.8 92.8 89.6 95.2 Item Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. The composition of manufacturing is specified in a note for the summary table. Table 6 D IFFUSION I NDEXES OF I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Percent Item One month earlier 2018 2019 2020 Three months earlier 2018 2019 2020 Six months earlier 2018 2019 2020 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 50.8 45.8 55.5 63.5 43.5 51.5 45.8 47.8 19.1 60.2 43.5 8.4 44.1 50.5 58.0 62.2 53.2 56.5 47.2 56.2 59.2 55.2 47.8 52.5 39.1 49.2 57.5 54.8 50.5 52.5 48.5 63.2 63.2 44.1 54.5 53.8 43.8 24.4 68.2 38.8 6.4 47.2 41.8 7.7 55.2 51.2 53.8 49.2 64.9 55.9 55.5 48.5 54.5 49.8 50.2 48.5 58.5 50.5 58.2 51.2 54.5 66.6 45.2 52.8 61.2 42.5 24.7 62.5 35.8 10.0 54.5 40.1 8.7 60.9 43.1 63.2 37.8 60.2 47.8 58.5 46.5 53.5 46.2 60.5 50.2 57.5 49.2 Note. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 10 Table 7 C APACITY U TILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 2019 proportion 19722019 ave. 199495 high 2009 low 2019 Q4 2020 Q1r Q2p 2020 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep 100.00 79.8 85.0 66.7 77.2 75.8 66.0 76.9 76.9 73.5 64.2 65.1 68.6 31–33 77.21 74.92 78.2 78.1 84.6 84.7 63.7 63.5 75.0 75.6 73.9 74.4 63.1 63.5 75.2 75.7 75.2 75.7 71.3 71.8 60.0 60.3 62.3 62.7 66.9 67.4 321 327 331 332 333 334 39.11 1.45 2.60 3.11 5.51 5.42 5.34 76.8 76.7 73.8 77.9 77.7 77.5 77.2 83.7 86.6 82.5 94.1 84.8 87.3 84.2 58.4 47.8 46.5 48.7 62.0 59.8 70.1 74.9 76.7 66.7 71.3 80.3 77.0 72.5 72.9 77.1 68.1 69.8 80.0 75.1 72.9 58.6 68.0 59.1 51.1 70.8 62.2 68.9 74.7 78.4 69.7 72.4 80.4 76.0 72.9 74.9 77.7 69.2 69.8 81.3 75.7 73.5 69.1 75.3 65.4 67.2 78.1 73.6 72.3 54.0 66.9 55.3 52.4 69.2 59.3 68.5 57.6 68.0 59.8 49.8 70.9 61.6 67.3 64.3 69.1 62.4 51.1 72.3 65.5 70.9 335 3361–3 1.90 5.59 81.7 75.2 92.8 87.6 67.0 33.7 73.4 74.0 74.1 69.7 67.4 33.6 73.9 75.8 75.6 78.1 72.7 55.2 68.0 13.1 66.4 28.8 67.6 59.0 3364–9 337 339 4.29 1.21 2.69 74.3 77.0 76.7 70.9 82.8 81.1 72.7 56.4 67.9 75.7 76.4 76.6 67.1 75.6 73.9 53.5 61.1 62.1 69.3 76.6 76.1 68.1 77.3 74.9 63.9 72.8 70.6 49.7 55.1 57.6 54.1 62.4 61.3 56.6 65.9 67.5 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 35.84 11.65 .70 .22 2.16 1.38 3.22 13.00 3.50 80.0 80.3 78.6 75.8 86.6 79.5 84.9 76.7 81.9 86.1 85.3 91.8 87.0 92.7 85.4 91.2 82.0 93.2 68.8 75.6 53.9 56.6 72.9 58.8 76.1 64.7 57.6 76.2 75.5 68.8 61.2 85.3 70.4 79.0 76.1 75.5 75.9 75.3 68.0 60.0 86.4 70.4 79.0 75.6 74.9 68.7 69.5 54.9 49.5 81.0 54.5 64.0 71.8 60.9 76.7 75.8 69.5 60.3 87.3 71.4 81.9 76.0 76.1 76.4 75.7 69.0 61.7 86.0 73.0 80.5 75.6 76.5 74.6 74.5 65.6 58.1 85.9 66.7 74.7 75.2 72.1 67.2 68.1 49.8 42.8 83.0 50.3 62.2 70.8 57.4 68.2 69.0 56.0 50.1 78.6 55.4 63.5 71.5 60.0 70.6 71.4 58.7 55.5 81.3 57.7 66.3 72.9 65.2 1133,5111 2.29 79.4 83.3 68.0 57.1 56.9 49.4 57.4 58.3 55.1 49.3 48.7 50.0 21 2211,2 12.37 10.41 87.2 85.2 88.6 93.2 78.3 78.2 89.3 77.2 89.1 71.9 78.0 71.4 90.5 71.1 89.2 73.5 87.6 71.1 81.8 72.3 77.0 69.5 75.0 72.3 3341 3342 2.04 .34 .60 77.2 77.7 75.8 86.2 86.8 86.1 71.1 82.9 77.1 73.0 73.1 60.5 71.5 74.7 56.7 68.7 69.2 55.3 72.5 74.5 57.8 71.1 74.8 56.5 71.0 74.9 55.7 68.7 70.2 55.3 68.2 67.5 55.3 69.2 69.9 55.4 3344 1.11 78.6 92.0 62.9 79.9 78.9 76.1 80.1 78.2 78.4 75.8 75.7 76.7 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 97.96 75.17 79.9 78.3 84.9 84.5 66.5 63.3 77.3 75.1 75.9 74.0 65.9 62.9 77.0 75.3 77.1 75.3 73.6 71.3 64.1 59.8 65.0 62.2 68.6 66.8 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 16.66 44.99 38.38 86.2 80.3 76.7 90.0 87.8 80.6 76.4 63.9 66.5 88.0 75.3 74.3 87.5 73.6 72.6 78.0 64.1 62.5 88.7 74.6 73.8 87.7 74.9 74.0 86.1 71.3 70.1 80.4 62.7 58.5 77.1 63.1 61.7 76.4 66.5 67.3 Item Total industry 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. The composition of manufacturing is specified in a note for the summary table. 11 Table 8 I NDUSTRIAL C APACITY Percent change Average annual rate 19721980198979 88 94 Item Total industry Fourth quarter to fourth quarter 19952020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2019 Q3 Annual rate 2020 Q4 Q1 Q2 Monthly rate 2020 June 3.0 1.9 2.3 1.9 .3 1.5 2.1 .0 2.1 2.1 .6 -.1 .0 Manufacturing 3.2 2.2 2.6 1.9 .3 .7 1.4 -.2 1.4 1.4 .4 -.2 .0 Mining Utilities .7 4.4 .1 2.2 -.7 1.8 1.3 1.7 .5 1.4 7.4 1.7 5.8 2.5 -2.1 3.2 5.0 2.6 4.9 2.5 -.2 2.9 -2.3 3.2 -.3 .3 18.6 16.7 16.1 16.8 3.9 3.0 7.1 4.7 7.6 7.6 5.8 4.8 .4 2.6 1.3 1.6 .7 .2 .6 1.2 -.3 1.3 1.3 .2 -.3 .0 1.5 3.0 3.9 .4 1.4 3.3 -.5 2.5 2.8 1.2 2.0 1.8 .5 -.1 1.1 5.3 .8 1.0 4.4 1.6 1.6 -1.7 .3 .3 3.9 1.7 1.7 3.8 1.6 1.7 -.1 .7 .8 -1.8 .3 .4 -.2 .0 .0 1 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing1 ex. selected high-technology industries S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 1. The composition of manufacturing is specified in a note for the summary table. Table 9 G ROSS VALUE OF F INAL P RODUCTS AND N ONINDUSTRIAL S UPPLIES Billions of 2012 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 2012 2019 2019 Q4 2020 Q1r Q2p 2020 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep 4,020.4 4,297.7 4,300.0 4,196.2 3,533.3 4,286.3 4,304.3 3,998.2 3,306.9 3,470.6 3,822.3 3,059.0 2,238.8 436.9 272.6 164.3 1,801.9 3,242.3 2,422.0 533.4 354.6 179.0 1,887.2 3,240.2 2,426.7 527.8 349.6 178.3 1,898.5 3,143.0 2,372.7 509.6 332.2 177.4 1,863.4 2,623.9 2,035.0 319.0 165.8 152.4 1,730.3 3,214.8 2,419.9 540.6 361.4 179.5 1,877.1 3,233.7 2,439.1 554.4 373.9 180.7 1,881.4 2,980.6 2,259.0 433.7 261.2 172.0 1,831.7 2,416.6 1,887.0 217.7 73.2 143.1 1,691.5 2,567.2 1,987.9 292.4 140.0 151.4 1,711.6 2,887.8 2,230.1 446.7 284.2 162.6 1,787.9 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 820.2 784.9 654.7 130.2 824.5 796.5 664.3 131.9 818.2 792.6 656.6 135.6 776.2 750.9 615.8 134.3 597.4 581.8 456.9 123.3 800.4 775.1 640.8 133.8 800.5 774.6 638.0 136.0 727.7 703.0 568.8 133.1 538.3 519.8 401.6 116.5 587.4 572.6 446.9 124.1 666.5 652.9 522.3 129.3 Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 961.4 274.1 687.3 264.8 1,055.6 318.6 734.9 288.6 1,060.0 320.0 737.9 292.2 1,053.4 324.7 725.0 282.6 909.5 283.3 622.3 232.9 1,071.7 329.6 738.4 290.5 1,070.8 329.1 738.1 288.6 1,017.7 315.3 698.4 268.6 890.4 276.7 610.0 232.4 903.5 284.5 614.2 225.4 934.7 288.6 642.6 241.0 Item Final products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable r Revised. p Preliminary. Table 10 G ROSS -VALUE -W EIGHTED I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S TAGE - OF -P ROCESS G ROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Finished Semifinished Primary Crude 2019 gross value1 2017 2018 2019 2019 Q4 2,395.2 2,039.3 1,923.8 1,040.2 2.3 2.2 2.7 6.4 2.8 2.2 2.3 7.8 -1.1 -1.4 -2.3 .2 -1.3 -.9 -2.5 4.2 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Billions of 2012 dollars. 12 Annual rate 2020 Q1r Q2p -8.5 -6.8 -11.3 -1.4 -54.4 -45.8 -45.0 -34.3 Monthly rate 2020 Jan.r Feb. -.6 -.6 .1 .9 .7 .6 -1.2 -1.1 r Mar. r -7.6 -4.9 -5.3 -2.2 Apr. r -21.2 -15.7 -11.7 -7.0 r May 7.2 3.5 .2 -2.4 June p 13.9 8.0 4.4 .6 June ’19 to June ’20 -11.6 -10.1 -13.1 -9.7 Table 11 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)1 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .5 .5 .0 -.6 .6 .1 .5 .3 -.6 .0 .1 .2 .4 -.2 .8 .4 .3 .7 -.3 .4 .6 .7 .2 -.6 .4 -.6 -.2 .1 -.6 1.0 -.3 .6 -.2 -.6 -.2 2.1 .4 -.3 -.1 .0 -.2 -.4 .4 -.4 .1 .8 1.3 -.3 -.4 -.3 -.1 .5 .0 -.5 .5 .4 .8 -.3 .0 -.5 4.6 4.5 4.1 -5.2 3.0 2.7 3.9 4.9 -5.0 6.4 3.0 3.6 -.4 -5.4 2.4 5.9 7.3 -.8 -4.1 -.1 5.8 4.4 3.9 -3.1 .4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .8 .3 .5 .1 -.5 .1 .6 .7 .0 1.0 -.2 -.5 -.2 .2 .2 -.7 .5 .2 .4 .7 .0 .8 .1 -.1 .0 .2 -.8 .4 .4 .0 .4 .8 -.3 .0 .0 -.1 .1 .3 .4 .2 .6 .1 -1.9 -.2 .4 .1 1.0 1.3 -.1 -.4 .8 .2 1.0 -.1 .6 -.1 .7 .6 1.0 .0 2.5 2.8 5.9 3.8 3.6 -3.0 2.3 2.0 2.4 5.0 2.7 2.2 -1.8 1.5 1.1 4.0 5.8 3.9 .9 1.2 1.3 2.7 3.3 2.3 2.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -.3 -2.4 1.2 -.1 .6 -.3 -.6 .4 -.4 .2 -.2 -1.6 .7 1.0 -.5 -.8 -.8 .4 -.4 .8 -.6 -1.0 1.5 .2 .2 -.2 -.4 .1 .3 .0 -.5 1.1 .4 .5 .3 -1.5 1.1 .3 .6 -.5 -4.3 .8 .2 .0 .0 1.0 .3 -.3 .7 .2 -1.3 .4 .0 -.1 .5 -2.9 .3 1.0 .6 .4 -1.5 -20.6 8.1 2.3 3.9 -5.8 -10.9 8.1 1.6 2.6 -12.5 6.1 5.3 4.8 .0 -16.0 6.4 1.3 4.0 2.1 -3.5 -11.5 5.5 3.1 3.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -.1 -.4 -.5 .8 .1 .6 .8 -.5 -.7 -.4 .4 1.0 -.3 -.8 .7 -.2 .0 -.6 .1 .9 .1 .4 -.4 -.1 .1 .2 .4 -.3 .4 .2 -.4 .2 .6 .3 .0 .7 -.1 -.2 -.1 -.5 .5 .3 -.4 .0 .0 -.2 .0 -.4 .2 1.5 .3 .8 -.7 -.2 .5 .3 -.1 -.6 .9 .3 3.2 3.1 -3.0 -2.1 2.4 1.7 5.5 -5.3 -2.3 5.6 1.4 2.4 -.1 1.8 -.8 2.8 2.7 -5.1 1.3 7.5 2.0 3.1 -1.0 -2.0 2.3 2018 2019 2020 -.3 -.4 -.4 .4 -.5 .1 .6 .1 -4.4 .9 -.6 -12.7 -.8 .2 1.4 .8 .0 5.4 .4 -.2 .8 .7 .1 -.3 .2 -.4 .5 .9 .0 -.4 2.3 -1.9 -6.8 4.6 -2.3 -42.6 5.2 1.1 3.9 .4 3.9 .8 IP (2012=100) 2018 2019 2020 106.3 110.1 109.2 106.6 109.6 109.3 107.3 109.7 104.5 108.2 109.0 91.2 107.4 109.2 92.5 108.2 109.3 97.5 108.7 109.1 109.5 109.9 109.7 109.5 109.9 109.0 110.5 110.0 110.6 109.7 106.7 109.8 107.7 107.9 109.2 93.7 109.3 109.5 110.3 109.6 108.6 109.4 Capacity (percent of 2012 output) 2018 2019 2020 136.9 139.4 142.0 137.0 139.6 142.1 137.2 139.9 142.1 137.3 140.2 142.1 137.5 140.4 142.0 137.7 140.6 142.0 137.9 140.9 138.1 141.1 138.4 141.4 138.6 141.6 138.9 141.9 139.1 142.1 137.0 139.6 142.1 137.5 140.4 142.0 138.2 141.1 138.9 141.9 137.9 140.8 Utilization (percent) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 84.5 81.9 82.1 79.2 74.0 84.0 82.0 82.0 78.4 73.9 83.5 81.8 82.0 78.0 74.4 83.3 81.7 82.3 77.6 74.6 83.3 81.9 82.2 76.9 74.9 82.3 81.5 82.0 76.2 75.5 81.5 81.7 81.6 75.6 75.3 82.8 81.7 81.1 75.3 75.3 82.2 81.1 81.2 74.8 75.4 82.4 81.9 80.7 74.3 75.2 82.0 82.0 80.4 73.8 75.6 81.9 82.3 80.0 73.7 75.2 84.0 81.9 82.0 78.6 74.1 83.0 81.7 82.2 76.9 75.0 82.2 81.5 81.3 75.2 75.3 82.1 82.1 80.4 74.0 75.3 82.8 81.8 81.5 76.2 74.9 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 75.8 77.1 80.0 80.7 80.0 75.9 77.6 80.5 80.6 80.6 75.8 77.2 80.3 80.6 80.6 75.3 77.6 80.3 80.8 81.0 75.3 78.2 80.3 80.6 80.9 75.5 77.6 80.5 80.8 80.8 75.8 78.2 80.2 80.6 80.6 75.8 78.2 80.3 80.8 80.7 76.2 78.3 78.7 80.5 81.0 76.3 79.0 79.6 80.2 80.6 76.9 79.1 80.3 80.0 81.1 76.9 79.7 80.7 80.6 81.1 75.9 77.3 80.2 80.6 80.4 75.4 77.8 80.4 80.7 80.9 75.9 78.2 79.7 80.6 80.8 76.7 79.3 80.2 80.3 80.9 76.0 78.2 80.1 80.6 80.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 80.9 70.0 70.8 75.6 77.2 80.7 69.4 71.2 75.3 77.2 80.6 68.3 71.8 76.0 76.7 80.0 67.7 72.3 75.7 77.2 79.6 67.0 73.5 75.8 77.2 79.5 66.7 73.8 75.9 77.0 79.0 67.4 74.2 76.2 77.1 77.8 68.2 74.6 76.6 76.6 74.4 68.8 74.9 76.4 76.5 75.0 69.1 74.8 76.8 76.6 74.0 69.5 74.9 76.6 76.8 71.7 69.9 75.6 76.9 77.0 80.8 69.2 71.3 75.6 77.1 79.7 67.1 73.2 75.8 77.1 77.1 68.2 74.6 76.4 76.7 73.6 69.5 75.1 76.8 76.8 77.8 68.5 73.5 76.1 76.9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 76.7 77.2 78.6 75.9 75.5 77.1 77.8 78.1 75.3 75.2 77.3 78.5 77.8 74.7 75.7 77.1 78.4 77.3 74.7 76.4 77.0 78.6 76.9 74.6 76.5 77.1 78.8 76.6 74.9 76.6 76.7 78.9 77.0 75.1 76.5 77.2 78.7 76.9 75.0 76.2 77.5 78.8 76.6 74.9 76.1 77.3 78.7 76.3 75.0 77.3 77.4 79.2 75.7 74.9 77.6 77.6 79.0 75.3 75.5 77.9 77.0 77.8 78.1 75.3 75.5 77.1 78.6 76.9 74.8 76.5 77.1 78.8 76.8 75.0 76.3 77.5 79.0 75.8 75.1 77.6 77.2 78.6 76.9 75.0 76.5 2018 2019 2020 77.6 79.0 76.9 77.8 78.5 76.9 78.2 78.4 73.5 78.8 77.8 64.2 78.1 77.8 65.1 78.6 77.7 68.6 78.8 77.4 79.3 77.8 79.3 77.4 79.3 77.0 79.6 77.6 79.5 77.2 77.9 78.6 75.8 78.5 77.8 66.0 79.1 77.6 79.4 77.2 78.7 77.8 1. Quarterly percentage changes are at annual rates. Annual percentage changes are calculated from annual averages. 13 Table 12 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .8 .3 .1 -.6 .6 .1 .8 .2 -.6 .0 -.1 -.1 .6 -.2 .8 .5 .4 .7 -.3 .2 .5 .9 -.1 -.6 .5 -.8 -.3 .2 -.7 1.1 -.4 .5 .1 -.5 -.3 2.4 .6 -.7 -.5 .2 -.2 -.4 .4 -.2 .1 1.0 1.5 -.3 -.6 -.4 .2 .6 -.3 -.3 .5 .5 .7 -.6 .3 -.5 6.1 5.1 4.5 -6.0 3.6 2.1 4.5 4.8 -5.2 5.8 3.3 3.2 -.4 -5.8 3.1 8.0 8.7 -2.4 -3.8 -.3 6.7 5.1 4.1 -3.7 .5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .7 .0 .7 .8 -.5 -.1 .8 .8 -.3 .4 .1 -.2 -.5 .0 .9 -.9 .4 .4 .5 .7 .1 .8 .3 -.4 -.1 .5 -.7 .1 .4 .3 .2 .9 -.3 -.3 .1 -.4 .5 .5 .7 -.3 .8 .0 -1.0 .1 .5 .1 1.0 1.5 -.4 -.3 1.0 -.1 .8 .0 .6 -.2 .7 .2 1.4 .1 2.1 2.6 6.6 3.8 4.0 -2.2 3.3 2.3 .8 5.9 2.5 4.0 -.7 1.0 1.1 4.4 5.5 6.4 1.5 1.2 1.3 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -.4 -3.0 1.1 .2 .8 -.6 -.1 .0 .1 .3 -.3 -1.9 1.2 .6 -.5 -1.1 -.7 .8 -.6 .5 -.5 -1.1 1.4 .1 -.4 -.7 -.3 -.1 .1 .2 -1.2 1.5 .6 .6 -.1 -1.2 1.1 .1 .4 -.2 -3.5 .9 .0 .3 -.1 -.6 .2 .1 .5 -.4 -2.4 1.0 .0 -.3 .7 -3.5 -.2 .5 .7 .8 -2.6 -24.4 6.9 3.1 5.2 -8.2 -10.6 10.4 -.1 .6 -14.0 8.1 4.2 4.5 -1.1 -21.9 7.1 1.2 3.8 1.2 -4.8 -13.8 5.8 2.9 2.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -.3 -1.1 -.4 .7 .6 .5 1.0 -.7 -.6 -.1 -.1 .8 .3 -.2 -.3 -.4 -.2 -.1 -.4 1.1 .3 .3 .0 .0 -.2 .2 .4 -.4 .3 .1 -.9 .4 .7 .3 -.2 .9 -.5 -.3 -.4 -.3 .1 .0 -.4 .4 -.2 .1 -.1 .0 .3 1.3 .0 .8 -.3 .1 .3 .0 -.3 -.3 .3 -.1 2.9 -.8 -2.9 -.3 3.0 -.1 4.3 -1.2 -2.4 3.4 -.1 1.6 .2 1.2 -1.6 1.7 .5 -2.8 2.5 5.3 .9 1.1 -.5 -.8 2.0 2018 2019 2020 -.4 -.6 -.1 1.1 -.5 .0 .0 -.1 -5.1 .4 -.9 -15.9 -.8 .1 3.8 .7 .6 7.2 .4 -.4 .4 .6 .0 -.6 -.1 -.6 .2 .9 .6 .2 1.6 -1.8 -5.5 2.0 -3.3 -47.0 3.6 .7 1.5 -.5 2.3 -.2 IP (2012=100) 2018 2019 2020 103.3 105.8 105.0 104.4 105.3 104.9 104.5 105.2 99.6 104.9 104.3 83.8 104.1 104.4 87.0 104.8 105.0 93.3 105.2 104.6 105.7 105.2 105.7 104.5 105.6 103.9 105.8 104.9 106.4 105.1 104.1 105.5 103.2 104.6 104.6 88.0 105.5 104.8 105.9 104.6 105.0 104.8 Capacity (percent of 2012 output) 2018 2019 2020 136.8 137.9 139.6 136.8 138.0 139.6 136.9 138.2 139.6 136.9 138.3 139.6 137.0 138.5 139.6 137.1 138.7 139.5 137.2 138.8 137.3 139.0 137.4 139.2 137.5 139.3 137.6 139.5 137.7 139.7 136.8 138.0 139.6 137.0 138.5 139.6 137.3 139.0 137.6 139.5 137.2 138.8 Utilization (percent) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 83.6 80.7 80.7 76.8 72.1 83.1 81.0 80.5 76.1 71.9 82.4 80.5 80.7 75.7 72.4 82.2 80.5 80.9 75.2 72.5 82.0 80.8 80.5 74.5 72.9 80.8 80.2 80.3 73.8 73.6 80.0 80.2 80.1 73.3 73.4 81.5 80.4 79.3 72.8 73.5 80.8 79.7 79.3 72.5 73.6 81.2 80.6 78.8 71.9 73.3 80.9 80.7 78.3 71.6 73.6 80.9 80.9 77.6 71.7 73.3 83.0 80.7 80.6 76.2 72.1 81.7 80.5 80.6 74.5 73.0 80.8 80.1 79.6 72.9 73.5 81.0 80.7 78.2 71.8 73.4 81.6 80.5 79.7 73.8 73.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 73.8 75.0 78.4 79.4 78.5 73.7 75.6 79.0 79.1 78.6 73.8 75.5 78.4 78.9 79.1 73.2 75.8 78.6 79.2 79.4 73.3 76.4 78.7 78.7 79.1 73.7 75.9 78.6 78.9 79.2 73.9 76.6 78.2 78.5 79.1 73.6 76.9 78.4 78.9 78.7 74.2 76.9 77.5 78.8 78.9 74.3 77.6 78.5 78.3 78.6 75.1 77.5 78.9 78.2 78.9 75.0 77.9 78.9 79.1 78.9 73.8 75.4 78.6 79.1 78.7 73.4 76.1 78.6 78.9 79.3 73.9 76.8 78.0 78.7 78.9 74.8 77.7 78.8 78.5 78.8 74.0 76.5 78.5 78.8 78.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 78.6 65.9 68.0 72.7 75.0 78.1 65.9 68.1 72.8 75.1 77.8 64.7 69.0 73.3 74.7 77.0 64.4 69.7 72.9 75.0 76.7 63.8 70.8 73.0 74.6 76.2 63.7 70.9 73.1 74.7 75.4 64.7 71.4 73.5 74.5 74.6 65.6 71.6 73.8 74.2 72.1 66.2 71.7 74.0 74.1 71.8 66.5 71.9 74.3 73.8 70.2 67.2 72.0 74.0 74.2 67.8 67.2 72.5 74.5 74.7 78.2 65.5 68.4 72.9 74.9 76.6 64.0 70.5 73.0 74.8 74.1 65.5 71.6 73.8 74.3 69.9 66.9 72.1 74.3 74.2 74.7 65.5 70.7 73.5 74.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 74.4 73.6 75.7 75.1 74.8 74.7 74.4 75.2 74.6 74.7 74.5 75.0 75.5 74.3 74.5 74.2 74.9 75.5 74.0 75.3 74.4 75.2 75.5 73.9 75.1 74.5 75.5 75.2 74.0 75.2 73.8 75.8 75.8 74.1 75.1 74.4 75.5 75.5 73.8 74.8 74.5 75.5 75.2 74.0 74.7 74.5 75.5 75.1 74.1 75.7 74.5 76.1 74.9 74.1 75.9 74.5 75.9 74.6 74.4 75.8 74.5 74.3 75.5 74.7 74.6 74.4 75.2 75.4 74.0 75.2 74.2 75.6 75.5 74.0 74.9 74.5 75.8 74.9 74.2 75.8 74.4 75.2 75.3 74.2 75.1 2018 2019 2020 75.5 76.7 75.2 76.3 76.3 75.2 76.3 76.2 71.3 76.6 75.4 60.0 76.0 75.4 62.3 76.5 75.7 66.9 76.7 75.3 77.0 75.7 76.9 75.1 76.8 74.6 76.9 75.2 77.3 75.3 76.1 76.4 73.9 76.4 75.5 63.1 76.9 75.4 77.0 75.0 76.6 75.6 1. The composition of manufacturing is specified in a note for the summary table. 2. Quarterly percentage changes are at annual rates. Annual percentage changes are calculated from annual averages. 14 Table 13 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, High-Technology Industries1 AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Excluding Selected Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .3 .1 -.3 -.7 .7 .0 .2 .0 -.6 -.2 -.1 -.1 .1 -.3 .8 .2 -.1 .5 -.2 .4 .6 .5 -.2 -.6 .4 -.9 -.5 -.1 -.5 .9 -.7 .3 -.5 -.4 -.3 1.9 .4 -.5 -.1 -.1 -.5 -.5 .3 -.4 .1 .6 1.2 -.4 -.5 -.3 -.3 .2 -.2 -.4 .5 .1 .6 -.5 -.1 -.6 2.2 .6 .6 -5.9 2.6 .8 .3 1.5 -4.3 6.0 -.3 .9 -3.2 -4.3 1.8 2.5 5.6 -2.6 -4.4 -.6 3.1 1.1 1.0 -3.9 .3 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .7 .1 .3 .1 -.6 .0 .6 .6 -.1 1.0 -.3 -.6 -.2 .2 .0 -.9 .5 .1 .4 .5 -.1 .8 .1 -.2 .1 .0 -.9 .4 .3 .2 .3 .8 -.4 -.1 -.1 -.3 .0 .2 .3 .2 .5 .0 -2.1 -.3 .3 .0 .9 1.2 -.1 -.6 .7 .2 1.0 -.1 .4 -.1 .7 .6 1.0 -.1 1.5 1.9 4.8 3.2 2.8 -4.7 2.1 1.2 1.8 4.0 .7 1.9 -3.0 .6 1.1 2.7 5.3 2.7 .1 -.5 .2 1.7 2.6 1.4 1.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -.3 -2.4 1.1 -.2 .6 -.5 -.7 .2 -.5 .2 -.4 -1.7 .6 1.1 -.5 -.8 -.9 .3 -.4 .7 -.7 -1.1 1.5 .2 .2 -.3 -.4 .1 .3 -.1 -.5 1.1 .4 .5 .3 -1.6 1.1 .3 .5 -.5 -4.5 .7 .2 .0 .0 1.2 .3 -.3 .7 .2 -1.0 .3 .0 -.1 .5 -2.8 .3 .9 .5 .4 -2.6 -20.4 7.0 1.7 3.6 -6.8 -11.7 7.5 1.6 2.1 -12.8 6.1 5.1 4.6 -.1 -14.9 6.0 .8 4.1 1.8 -4.3 -11.5 4.9 2.8 2.8 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -.2 -.4 -.5 .8 .1 .6 .8 -.5 -.7 -.4 .4 .9 -.3 -.8 .7 -.2 .0 -.6 .1 .9 .1 .3 -.4 -.1 .1 .2 .4 -.4 .4 .2 -.5 .2 .6 .2 .0 .6 -.1 -.2 -.1 -.5 .5 .3 -.4 .0 .0 -.2 .0 -.4 .2 1.5 .3 .8 -.7 -.2 .5 .3 -.1 -.6 .9 .3 3.1 3.0 -3.1 -2.4 2.6 1.4 5.2 -5.5 -2.4 5.7 1.1 2.3 -.1 1.7 -.7 2.6 2.7 -5.3 1.1 7.4 1.8 2.9 -1.1 -2.1 2.3 2018 2019 2020 -.3 -.4 -.4 .4 -.5 .2 .6 .1 -4.5 .9 -.6 -12.9 -.8 .2 1.4 .7 .0 5.5 .4 -.2 .8 .7 .1 -.4 .2 -.4 .6 .9 .0 -.4 2.2 -2.1 -6.9 4.5 -2.3 -43.1 4.9 .9 4.0 .2 3.9 .7 IP (2012=100) 2018 2019 2020 105.4 109.2 108.2 105.8 108.6 108.3 106.4 108.7 103.4 107.4 108.1 90.1 106.5 108.3 91.4 107.3 108.3 96.4 107.8 108.1 108.6 108.9 108.8 108.5 109.0 108.0 109.6 109.0 109.7 108.6 105.9 108.9 106.6 107.1 108.2 92.6 108.4 108.5 109.5 108.5 107.7 108.5 Capacity (percent of 2012 output) 2018 2019 2020 135.6 138.0 140.5 135.8 138.3 140.6 135.9 138.5 140.6 136.0 138.8 140.5 136.2 139.0 140.5 136.4 139.2 140.4 136.6 139.5 136.8 139.7 137.1 139.9 137.3 140.1 137.5 140.4 137.8 140.6 135.8 138.3 140.5 136.2 139.0 140.5 136.8 139.7 137.5 140.4 136.6 139.3 Utilization (percent) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 84.6 82.0 81.6 78.9 75.3 84.2 81.9 81.5 78.3 75.1 83.9 81.6 81.5 78.0 75.7 83.7 81.3 81.8 77.8 75.9 83.9 81.6 81.5 77.3 76.2 82.8 81.0 81.4 76.8 76.9 82.0 81.1 80.9 76.4 76.7 83.2 81.3 80.4 76.3 76.6 82.5 80.7 80.6 75.8 76.7 82.7 81.6 80.2 75.4 76.5 82.2 81.7 79.9 75.0 76.9 82.1 82.0 79.5 74.8 76.6 84.2 81.8 81.5 78.4 75.3 83.5 81.3 81.6 77.3 76.3 82.6 81.0 80.6 76.2 76.7 82.3 81.8 79.9 75.1 76.7 83.2 81.5 80.9 76.7 76.3 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 77.2 77.6 80.5 80.8 79.9 77.2 78.0 80.9 80.6 80.6 77.0 77.6 80.7 80.6 80.5 76.4 78.0 80.8 80.8 80.9 76.3 78.7 80.8 80.6 80.9 76.4 78.0 81.0 80.7 81.0 76.6 78.7 80.6 80.5 81.0 76.5 78.7 80.7 80.6 81.1 76.9 78.7 78.9 80.2 81.4 76.9 79.5 79.7 80.0 80.9 77.5 79.7 80.4 79.8 81.3 77.4 80.2 80.8 80.5 81.3 77.1 77.7 80.7 80.7 80.4 76.4 78.2 80.9 80.7 81.0 76.7 78.7 80.1 80.5 81.1 77.3 79.8 80.3 80.1 81.2 76.9 78.6 80.5 80.5 80.9 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 81.1 69.9 70.6 75.3 77.4 80.8 69.3 70.9 75.0 77.4 80.6 68.1 71.5 75.8 76.9 79.9 67.5 72.0 75.6 77.3 79.4 66.7 73.2 75.7 77.3 79.2 66.5 73.5 75.9 77.2 78.8 67.2 74.0 76.3 77.3 77.5 68.1 74.3 76.6 76.8 74.0 68.7 74.6 76.5 76.7 74.8 69.0 74.5 77.0 76.7 73.9 69.3 74.6 76.8 77.0 71.7 69.7 75.4 77.1 77.1 80.8 69.1 71.0 75.4 77.3 79.5 66.9 72.9 75.7 77.3 76.8 68.0 74.3 76.5 76.9 73.5 69.3 74.8 76.9 76.9 77.6 68.3 73.3 76.1 77.1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 76.9 77.5 78.6 75.9 75.6 77.3 78.0 78.2 75.3 75.3 77.5 78.7 77.9 74.7 75.8 77.3 78.6 77.3 74.8 76.5 77.3 78.8 76.9 74.7 76.6 77.4 79.0 76.6 75.0 76.7 76.9 79.0 77.0 75.1 76.7 77.4 78.8 76.9 75.0 76.3 77.7 78.9 76.6 75.0 76.3 77.5 78.8 76.3 75.1 77.4 77.7 79.4 75.8 74.9 77.8 77.9 79.1 75.3 75.5 78.0 77.3 78.1 78.2 75.3 75.6 77.3 78.8 77.0 74.8 76.6 77.3 78.9 76.9 75.1 76.4 77.7 79.1 75.8 75.2 77.7 77.4 78.7 77.0 75.1 76.6 2018 2019 2020 77.7 79.1 77.0 78.0 78.6 77.1 78.3 78.5 73.6 79.0 77.9 64.1 78.2 77.9 65.0 78.7 77.8 68.6 78.9 77.5 79.4 77.9 79.3 77.5 79.4 77.1 79.7 77.7 79.6 77.3 78.0 78.7 75.9 78.6 77.9 65.9 79.2 77.7 79.6 77.3 78.8 77.9 1. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Quarterly percentage changes are at annual rates. Annual percentage changes are calculated from annual averages. 15 Table 14 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .6 -.1 -.3 -.6 .7 .0 .5 -.2 -.6 -.2 -.3 -.4 .3 -.2 .8 .3 .0 .4 -.2 .2 .4 .7 -.6 -.6 .5 -1.2 -.7 .0 -.5 1.1 -.8 .0 -.3 -.2 -.4 2.3 .6 -1.0 -.4 .1 -.6 -.5 .3 -.2 .1 .7 1.4 -.4 -.6 -.4 -.1 .4 -.5 -.2 .4 .2 .4 -.8 .1 -.6 3.5 .7 .4 -7.0 3.2 -.2 .3 .8 -4.4 5.4 -.5 .0 -3.8 -4.5 2.5 4.1 6.8 -4.6 -4.1 -.9 3.5 1.3 .7 -4.7 .4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .7 -.1 .6 .8 -.6 -.3 .7 .7 -.4 .3 .0 -.2 -.6 -.1 .6 -1.0 .4 .3 .5 .5 -.1 .8 .3 -.5 .0 .3 -.8 .1 .3 .5 .0 1.0 -.5 -.4 .1 -.6 .4 .3 .5 -.4 .7 -.1 -1.3 -.1 .3 .0 1.0 1.4 -.5 -.6 .9 -.1 .8 .0 .3 -.3 .7 .1 1.5 .0 .8 1.5 5.3 3.1 3.0 -4.3 3.1 1.3 -.1 4.7 .0 3.7 -2.2 -.2 1.1 2.9 4.8 5.0 .6 -1.1 .0 2.0 3.1 1.5 1.8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -.5 -3.1 1.0 .1 .8 -.8 -.2 -.3 .1 .3 -.5 -2.0 1.1 .6 -.6 -1.3 -.8 .8 -.6 .5 -.7 -1.1 1.4 .1 -.5 -.7 -.3 -.1 .1 .2 -1.1 1.5 .6 .7 -.2 -1.2 1.2 .0 .3 -.2 -3.6 .8 .0 .4 -.2 -.4 .1 .1 .6 -.5 -2.2 .9 -.1 -.3 .8 -3.3 -.2 .3 .7 .8 -4.2 -24.3 5.4 2.3 4.8 -9.8 -11.6 9.7 -.2 -.2 -14.4 8.1 3.8 4.3 -1.4 -20.8 6.5 .4 3.9 .6 -5.9 -13.9 5.1 2.5 2.3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -.4 -1.2 -.4 .6 .6 .5 1.0 -.7 -.6 .0 -.1 .8 .3 -.2 -.3 -.5 -.2 -.1 -.4 1.1 .3 .2 .0 .0 -.2 .2 .3 -.4 .3 .1 -1.0 .5 .7 .2 -.2 .9 -.6 -.3 -.4 -.3 .1 .0 -.5 .3 -.2 .1 -.1 .0 .3 1.3 -.1 .8 -.3 .1 .2 .0 -.3 -.4 .4 -.1 2.8 -1.2 -3.0 -.7 3.2 -.6 3.8 -1.3 -2.6 3.4 -.7 1.5 .2 1.1 -1.5 1.5 .4 -3.0 2.3 5.0 .5 .8 -.7 -1.0 1.9 2018 2019 2020 -.4 -.6 -.1 1.1 -.5 .0 .0 -.1 -5.2 .4 -.9 -16.2 -.8 .1 3.9 .6 .5 7.4 .4 -.4 .4 .6 .0 -.7 -.1 -.6 .2 .9 .6 .2 1.5 -2.1 -5.6 1.9 -3.3 -47.7 3.3 .4 1.7 -.7 2.2 -.4 IP (2012=100) 2018 2019 2020 102.1 104.5 103.5 103.2 103.9 103.5 103.2 103.8 98.0 103.7 103.0 82.2 102.8 103.1 85.4 103.5 103.6 91.7 103.9 103.2 104.3 103.7 104.3 103.1 104.3 102.5 104.5 103.4 105.1 103.6 102.9 104.1 101.7 103.3 103.2 86.4 104.2 103.3 104.6 103.1 103.8 103.4 Capacity (percent of 2012 output) 2018 2019 2020 135.0 136.0 137.4 135.0 136.1 137.4 135.0 136.2 137.4 135.1 136.3 137.4 135.2 136.5 137.3 135.2 136.6 137.3 135.3 136.8 135.4 136.9 135.5 137.1 135.6 137.2 135.7 137.3 135.8 137.5 135.0 136.1 137.4 135.2 136.5 137.3 135.4 136.9 135.7 137.3 135.3 136.7 Utilization (percent) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 83.6 80.6 80.0 76.2 73.3 83.3 80.8 79.8 75.7 73.2 82.7 80.2 79.9 75.4 73.7 82.5 80.0 80.1 75.2 73.8 82.6 80.3 79.5 74.7 74.2 81.3 79.5 79.4 74.3 75.1 80.3 79.4 79.1 74.1 74.8 81.9 79.7 78.3 73.7 74.9 81.1 79.1 78.4 73.5 75.0 81.4 80.1 78.0 73.0 74.7 81.0 80.2 77.5 72.8 75.1 80.9 80.4 76.8 72.9 74.7 83.2 80.5 79.9 75.8 73.4 82.1 79.9 79.7 74.7 74.4 81.1 79.4 78.6 73.7 74.9 81.1 80.2 77.4 72.9 74.8 81.9 80.0 78.9 74.3 74.4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 75.2 75.4 78.9 79.5 78.3 75.0 76.0 79.4 79.1 78.5 75.1 75.9 78.9 78.8 78.9 74.4 76.2 79.0 79.1 79.2 74.4 76.9 79.1 78.6 79.1 74.6 76.3 79.1 78.7 79.4 74.7 77.1 78.6 78.3 79.4 74.3 77.4 78.7 78.6 79.1 74.9 77.3 77.6 78.4 79.3 74.9 78.1 78.6 78.0 78.8 75.6 78.0 79.1 77.9 79.0 75.4 78.5 79.0 78.9 79.0 75.1 75.8 79.1 79.1 78.6 74.5 76.5 79.1 78.8 79.2 74.6 77.3 78.3 78.4 79.3 75.3 78.2 78.9 78.3 79.0 74.9 76.9 78.8 78.7 79.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 78.6 65.6 67.7 72.2 75.2 78.0 65.6 67.6 72.4 75.3 77.7 64.4 68.5 73.0 74.8 76.7 64.0 69.2 72.7 75.1 76.2 63.4 70.4 72.8 74.7 75.7 63.3 70.4 72.9 74.8 74.9 64.3 71.0 73.5 74.6 74.0 65.2 71.2 73.7 74.4 71.5 65.9 71.3 74.0 74.2 71.3 66.1 71.5 74.4 73.8 69.8 66.9 71.6 74.1 74.3 67.6 66.9 72.0 74.6 74.9 78.1 65.2 67.9 72.5 75.1 76.2 63.5 70.0 72.8 74.9 73.5 65.2 71.1 73.7 74.4 69.6 66.6 71.7 74.4 74.3 74.3 65.1 70.2 73.3 74.7 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 74.6 73.8 75.7 75.1 74.9 74.9 74.6 75.2 74.5 74.8 74.8 75.2 75.5 74.3 74.6 74.4 75.1 75.5 74.0 75.4 74.6 75.3 75.5 73.9 75.3 74.7 75.5 75.2 74.0 75.4 74.0 75.9 75.8 74.2 75.2 74.6 75.5 75.5 73.8 75.0 74.7 75.5 75.2 74.0 74.9 74.7 75.5 75.1 74.2 75.9 74.7 76.2 74.9 74.2 76.0 74.7 76.0 74.6 74.4 76.0 74.7 74.5 75.5 74.6 74.8 74.6 75.3 75.4 74.0 75.3 74.4 75.6 75.5 74.0 75.0 74.7 75.9 74.9 74.3 76.0 74.6 75.3 75.3 74.2 75.3 2018 2019 2020 75.6 76.8 75.3 76.5 76.4 75.3 76.5 76.2 71.3 76.8 75.5 59.8 76.1 75.5 62.2 76.5 75.8 66.8 76.8 75.4 77.0 75.8 77.0 75.2 76.9 74.7 77.0 75.3 77.4 75.3 76.2 76.5 74.0 76.5 75.6 62.9 76.9 75.5 77.1 75.1 76.7 75.7 1. The composition of manufacturing is specified in a note for the summary table. 2. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Quarterly percentage changes are at annual rates. Annual percentage changes are calculated from annual averages. 16 Table 15 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : R ELIABILITY E STIMATES Seasonally adjusted Item Annualized change 2020 Q1 Q2 2012=100 Percent change 2020 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 2020 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Total index 85th percentile Current estimate 15th percentile -6.60 -6.81 -7.01 -41.61 -42.61 -43.39 109.18 109.18 109.18 109.38 109.32 109.28 104.58 104.46 104.36 91.40 91.20 91.02 92.78 92.45 92.18 97.86 97.46 97.03 -.43 -.43 -.43 .18 .13 .08 -4.35 -4.45 -4.52 -12.55 -12.70 -12.81 1.67 1.38 1.14 5.73 5.41 5.10 Manufacturing (SIC) 85th percentile Current estimate 15th percentile -5.29 -5.53 -5.71 -46.18 -47.01 -48.03 104.96 104.96 104.96 105.01 104.95 104.89 99.70 99.58 99.46 83.97 83.79 83.59 87.22 86.98 86.69 93.65 93.28 92.85 -.12 -.12 -.12 .05 -.01 -.07 -5.02 -5.12 -5.22 -15.75 -15.85 -15.97 3.96 3.80 3.65 7.50 7.25 6.95 Mining 85th percentile Current estimate 15th percentile -.29 -.86 -1.41 -39.37 -42.72 -45.69 135.19 135.19 135.19 133.32 133.16 132.98 131.05 130.67 130.25 122.39 121.73 120.99 115.72 114.36 112.95 112.74 111.04 109.27 1.03 1.03 1.03 -1.38 -1.50 -1.63 -1.60 -1.87 -2.15 -6.37 -6.84 -7.21 -5.19 -6.06 -6.79 -1.97 -2.90 -3.79 -22.45 -22.57 -22.72 4.98 .03 -1.90 98.62 98.62 98.62 102.19 102.18 102.16 99.10 99.05 98.99 101.55 100.95 100.68 99.30 97.43 96.31 103.26 101.50 100.48 -4.67 -4.67 -4.67 3.62 3.60 3.59 -3.00 -3.06 -3.13 2.60 1.92 1.68 -1.67 -3.49 -4.85 5.98 4.18 2.51 Electric and gas utilities 85th percentile Current estimate 15th percentile Note. The reliability measures show the likely range of values for the IP indexes after their fifth and final monthly revision. The 15th (85th) percentile estimate is equal to the current estimate plus an amount such that the equivalent measure revised by a lower (higher) amount for only 15 percent of the months since 2008. More information is available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/g17 technical qa.htm#reliability 17 E XPLANATORY N OTE month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available from the Data Download Program on the Board’s website. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. A Im A Im−1 s P P I p I p P m m−1 × P m m = Im−1 pm−1 Im−1 pm The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the monthly G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 6 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 6/10 percentage point (0.06 x 10% = 0.6%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s website provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweightssa.txt). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2012. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries— logging and newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 2012, the total IP index has been constructed from 299 individual series based on the 2012 NAICS codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.htm. Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent five months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 75 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to 85 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 94 percent in the third month, 95 percent in the fourth month, 96 percent in the fifth month, and 96 percent in the sixth month. Data availability by data type in 2018 is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2018; the numbers may not sum because of rounding.) Month of estimate Source Data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are typically obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production and unit values or sales) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Physical product 34 44 54 54 56 56 Production-worker hours 40 40 40 40 40 40 IP data received 75 85 94 95 96 96 IP data estimated 25 15 6 5 4 4 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first row of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for more than one-half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (34 percent out of a total of 56 percent). Of the 34 percent, about three-quarters (25 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the fourth estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the third estimate of the last month of a quarter, the fourth estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fifth estimate of the first month of a quarter. Seasonal Adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-13 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through January 2019; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least December 2018. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Additional documentation and X-13 specifications can be found on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.htm. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see the Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 18 0.28 percent during the 1987–2018 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.22 percentage point during the 1987–2018 period. In most cases (about 85 percent), the direction of the change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This survey of large companies reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the annual Survey of Plant Capacity (the primary source of factory operating rates through 2006, after which it was discontinued) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve (now based on the QSPC) roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the Census utilization surveys. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. C APACITY U TILIZATION Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. Perspective. Over the 1972–2018 period, the average total industry utilization rate was 79.8 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate was 78.3 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 89 detailed industries (71 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the NAICS definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-technology industries and manufacturing excluding high-technology industries. References. The release for the annual revision that was published on March 27, 2019, is available on the Board’s website (www.federal reserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). A summary of the annual revision that incorporated back to 1972 production and capacity indexes reclassified according to the North American Industry Classification System is available in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 89 (April 2003), pp. 151–176. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/CapitalStockDocLatest.pdf. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (for example, paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 27 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity (QSPC); these industries account for about 64 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 9 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Meth/MethCap.htm). Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005, March 2006, May 2007, August 2008, August 2009) or in online staff studies (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2010/industrial10.pdf, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2012/industrial12.pdf, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2013/industrial13.pdf). Release Schedule The G.17 release on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization is published at 9:15 a.m. on: 2020: January 17, February 14, March 17, April 15, May 15, June 16, July 15, August 14, September 15, October 16, November 17, December 15. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. This release schedule is available on the Board’s website at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with 19
