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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EDT) July 15, 2010 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in June after having risen 1.3 percent in May. The rate of change for March was revised up, and the rate of change for April was revised down; these revisions resulted primarily from the incorporation of new information on the output of utilities. For the second quarter as a whole, (over) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY Seasonally adjusted 2007=100 Percent change Industrial production 2010 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep Total index Previous estimates 90.5 90.5 90.4 90.5 91.0 90.8 91.2 91.4 92.5 92.6 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 92.4 93.7 88.6 83.4 74.8 91.2 92.0 93.0 88.5 82.8 74.5 91.7 92.8 93.4 89.4 83.4 76.1 92.0 92.7 92.6 91.0 84.0 79.0 92.5 87.8 87.8 96.5 102.1 87.5 87.6 97.4 102.6 88.4 88.5 99.1 99.0 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 2010 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep 92.5 1.0 1.0 .0 .0 .6 .3 .3 .6 1.3 1.3 .1 8.2 94.2 94.4 92.3 85.4 79.3 93.4 94.0 93.9 93.1 85.3 79.1 93.8 1.3 1.2 1.3 .3 1.5 1.0 -.4 -.7 -.1 -.7 -.4 .5 .8 .5 1.1 .7 2.2 .3 -.1 -.9 1.8 .8 3.8 .6 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.6 .3 1.0 -.2 -.6 .9 -.1 -.3 .4 8.2 6.8 11.3 4.0 5.2 9.8 89.1 89.2 100.8 94.7 90.0 90.2 100.5 99.9 89.6 .9 .9 1.7 .8 -.3 -.2 1.0 .5 1.0 1.1 1.7 -3.4 .8 .8 1.7 -4.4 1.0 1.1 -.3 5.6 -.4 8.3 .4 2.7 8.5 7.1 Percent of capacity 200809 2009 2010 low June Jan.r 100.9 102.7 Average 19722009 198889 high 199091 low 199495 high Total industry Previous estimates 80.6 85.2 78.7 85.1 68.2 68.2 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 79.2 85.6 77.2 84.6 65.4 65.4 87.4 86.7 86.4 92.9 83.6 84.3 88.9 93.3 79.6 77.6 86.5 81.6 77.5 87.8 86.6 83.4 84.2 77.9 77.3 90.0 87.9 80.5 78.3 65.7 67.5 Capacity utilization Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished June ’09 to June ’10 Capacity growth Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep June ’09 to June ’10 72.3 72.3 72.3 72.4 72.8 72.7 73.1 73.1 74.1 74.1 74.1 -.5 69.7 69.7 83.1 82.6 70.4 70.5 84.5 79.7 70.9 71.1 86.0 76.1 71.7 71.9 85.8 80.2 71.4 -.8 79.6 78.6 69.8 69.8 82.2 82.4 86.1 82.3 .3 2.3 78.3 65.7 67.5 82.6 69.7 72.0 83.1 69.8 71.6 84.1 69.9 72.3 85.1 69.9 72.5 84.6 71.6 73.2 85.0 72.1 72.6 -.3 -.8 .0 r Revised. p Preliminary. Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS. 1 total industrial production increased at an annual rate of 6.6 percent. Manufacturing output moved down 0.4 percent in June after three months of gains at or near 1 percent. The output of mines rose 0.4 percent. The output of utilities increased 2.7 percent, as temperatures moved further above seasonal norms. At 92.5 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in June was 8.2 percent above its year-earlier level. The capacity utilization rate for total industry remained unchanged in June at 74.1 percent, a rate 5.9 percentage points above the rate from a year earlier but 6.5 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009. Market Groups The major market groups recorded a mix of gains and losses in June; however, output for the second quarter as a whole was higher than in the first quarter for almost every major market group. For June, the production of consumer goods moved down 0.6 percent, with declines for both durables and nondurables. The output of consumer durables decreased 1.2 percent: Lower production of automotive products; appliances, furniture, and carpeting; and miscellaneous goods more than offset a gain in home electronics. The production of consumer nondurable goods decreased 0.4 percent. The output of non-energy nondurables fell 1.5 percent; all of the major categories for that index recorded declines except clothing. The output of consumer energy products moved up 3.5 percent as the output of residential utilities increased noticeably. For the second quarter as a whole, the production of consumer goods increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent, as a rise in durables more than offset a decline in nondurables. The output of business equipment rose 0.9 percent in June and jumped at an annual rate of 15.7 percent for the second quarter as a whole—the largest quarterly increase for this category since 2005. Within business equipment, the production of transit equipment advanced 2.2 percent in June but was little changed for the quarter as a whole. Elsewhere in business equipment, the index for industrial and other equipment rose 1.0 percent in June and at a robust annual rate of 22 percent for the second quarter overall. The index for information processing edged down in June after having moved up substantially since the middle of last year; it increased at an annual rate of 14.7 percent in the second quarter. In June, the output of defense and space equipment moved up as production resumed at a factory producing military cargo planes following a strike. The output of construction supplies dipped 0.3 percent in June after three consecutive months of gains but rose at an annual rate of about 23 percent in the second quarter. The production of business supplies was unchanged in June after a noticeable increase in May. The output of materials to be further processed in the industrial sector increased 0.4 percent in June, with mixed results among its major categories. The output of durable materials edged up 0.2 percent despite a decrease in consumer parts. The index for nondurable materials fell 0.5 percent, with declines in all of its major categories. A gain in utilities output helped push the index for energy materials up 1.1 percent. For the second quarter as a whole, materials output increased at an annual rate of 7.2 percent. The production of durable materials rose 17.0 percent in the second quarter, with solid gains in consumer parts, equipment parts, and other durable materials. By contrast, the output of nondurable materials moved down 1.7 percent, with a decline in chemical materials offsetting gains in paper materials and textile materials. The index for energy materials rose 4.2 percent. Industry Groups In June, manufacturing output fell 0.4 percent after moving up for three consecutive months. The manufacturing index increased at an annual rate of 7.9 percent for the second quarter as a whole, a gain similar to the average quarterly increase since production turned up in the third quarter of 2009. Capacity utilization for manufacturing moved down 0.3 percentage point in June to 71.4 percent, a rate 6.0 percentage points above its 2 trough in June 2009 but 7.8 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009. The production index for durable goods manufacturing edged up 0.1 percent in June. Among its major categories, the largest increases were in primary metals and machinery, whereas the largest decreases were recorded in wood products, motor vehicles and parts, and miscellaneous manufacturing. For the second quarter as a whole, durable manufacturing increased at an annual rate of 14.1 percent, with sizable gains recorded in every major category except aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment. The index for nondurable manufacturing decreased 0.7 percent in June; lower production in most nondurable categories more than offset gains in apparel and leather, petroleum and coal products, and plastics and rubber products. For the second quarter as a whole, nondurables output moved up at an annual rate of 2.2 percent. Production in the non-NAICS manufacturing industries (logging and publishing) fell 2.1 percent in June. In June, unseasonably warm temperatures led to an increase in production of utilities and boosted its operating rate to 82.3 percent. Even so, that rate was 4.4 percentage points below its 1972–2009 average. The increase in mining output was primarily the result of gains in coal mining, natural gas extraction, and metal mining. Capacity utilization in mining edged up to 86.1 percent, a rate 1.3 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009. Capacity utilization rates in June at industries grouped by stage of process were as follows: At the crude stage, utilization increased 0.4 percentage point to 85.0 percent, a rate 1.5 percentage points below its average for the period from 1972 to 2009; at the primary and semifinished stages, utilization rose 0.5 percentage point to 72.1 percent, a rate 9.5 percentage points below its long-run average; and at the finished stage, utilization decreased 0.6 percentage point to 72.6 percent, a rate 4.9 percentage points below its long-run average. Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change Motor Vehicle Assemblies Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Industrial Capacity Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups Historical Statistics: Total Industry Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Further detail is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). 3 Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization The Federal Reserve Board released its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization on June 25, 2010. In this revision, the base year for the IP index was advanced from 2002 to 2007, which lowered the level of the IP index for most periods. In addition to the new base, the revised IP indexes incorporated detailed data from the 2007 Economic Census and the 2008 Annual Survey of Manufactures, both conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. Data from selected editions of the Census Bureau’s 2008 and 2009 Current Industrial Reports have also been incorporated along with annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2008. The revised indexes reflect updated price deflators from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. For this release, monthly indicators (either product data or input data) were revised, and the estimation methods for some series were changed. The new monthly production estimates reflect the incorporation of updated seasonal factors and monthly and quarterly source data that became available (or were revised) after the closing of the reporting window. Capacity and capacity utilization were revised to incorporate data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity for the fourth quarters of 2008 and 2009, which covered manufacturing, along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy, and other organizations. The published revision release is available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data are also available through the website of the Department of Commerce. Further information on the revision can be obtained from the Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone number 202-452-3197). 4 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization 160 Ratio scale, 2007 output = 100 Total Manufacturing 160 135 135 110 110 Capacity 85 85 Production 60 60 Detail: 2006 to present 106 Production 102 98 94 90 86 82 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 78 2005 2010 Percent of capacity 100 90 35 100 90 Utilization 80 80 70 70 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 60 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 5 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization Consumer goods Ratio scale, 2007=100 Equipment 110 105 110 105 100 110 100 100 100 Nondurable Ratio scale, 2007=100 110 Business 90 95 95 90 90 90 80 80 70 70 85 80 85 Durable 80 75 75 70 70 65 60 65 50 110 110 105 105 110 105 100 Defense and Space 100 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Nonindustrial supplies 100 Ratio scale, 2007=100 Construction Industrial materials 95 95 90 90 85 Other business 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 85 60 50 Ratio scale, 2007=100 110 105 Energy 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 80 Non-energy 80 80 80 75 75 75 75 70 70 70 65 70 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Capacity utilization 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Capacity utilization Percent of capacity 65 Percent of capacity 95 90 95 85 90 80 80 85 75 75 80 70 75 75 65 70 70 60 65 90 85 70 Primary and semifinished processing Excluding utilities 65 60 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Crude processing 90 85 Finished processing 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 80 65 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 6 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 2007 = 100 125 115 125 115 Excluding high-technology industries 95 95 75 75 55 35 55 Total IP 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Industrial production 2000 2005 2010 35 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1970 1975 Industrial production 1980 1985 Ratio scale, 2007 = 100 150 100 1990 -10 2000 Capacity utilization 150 Communications eq. 1995 -5 100 2010 -15 Percent of capacity 100 95 2005 100 Excluding high-technology industries 95 Computers 85 50 Semiconductors 85 75 50 75 65 65 High-technology industries 10 5 10 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 55 5 45 55 1990 1995 2000 2005 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. The last shaded area begins with the peak as defined by the NBER and ends at the trough of a 3 month moving average of manufacturing IP. 7 2010 45 Table 1 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item 2009 proportion1 Apr.r Mayr Junep 100.00 2.3 -7.6 -3.8 7.0 7.0 6.6 1.0 .0 .6 .3 1.3 .1 8.2 56.32 29.00 5.97 2.72 .34 .96 1.95 23.04 18.14 9.55 .28 5.90 1.84 4.89 .9 -.3 2.5 7.2 18.8 -4.4 -3.8 -1.2 -2.4 -2.3 -24.3 -1.1 -2.1 2.6 -7.2 -6.1 -18.3 -24.1 -3.4 -18.8 -11.1 -2.0 -3.0 -3.6 -6.1 -1.7 -5.2 1.6 -4.2 -.9 -2.1 6.0 2.4 -10.5 -9.9 -.5 -.4 .5 -13.6 .1 -5.2 -.9 6.1 8.6 13.6 22.5 42.1 3.6 1.0 7.2 5.9 7.0 -4.6 3.4 8.5 12.5 5.8 4.7 6.6 14.4 -36.4 3.0 5.8 4.2 2.0 5.1 29.9 -.2 -8.4 12.9 6.1 1.0 11.1 3.5 27.6 14.1 20.0 -1.6 -.1 4.3 2.4 -6.6 -2.9 -7.0 1.0 1.2 1.7 3.7 -6.0 .2 .7 1.1 .6 .6 5.3 1.0 -1.4 2.7 -.5 -.7 -1.0 -1.7 -3.3 .9 -.3 -.7 -.8 .1 .2 -1.9 -1.6 -.4 .8 .5 1.4 1.2 .3 3.1 1.2 .2 .7 1.3 -.5 .2 -.3 -1.6 .1 -.9 .8 -1.1 3.8 2.4 2.5 -1.3 -.5 -.5 .3 -.7 -.7 -4.3 1.6 1.9 2.5 3.5 3.6 -1.2 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.9 .5 -.4 2.3 4.0 -.2 -.6 -1.2 -1.7 2.6 -1.7 -.7 -.4 -1.5 -1.8 .8 -.8 -2.2 3.5 7.1 6.8 21.6 41.4 10.8 3.4 8.3 3.1 1.8 4.1 11.6 -2.0 .1 8.2 9.76 1.82 2.92 5.02 2.20 2.8 1.4 4.6 2.5 17.8 -8.3 -27.1 .7 -6.4 -1.9 -6.4 11.1 -.9 -14.3 1.8 6.3 1.7 9.5 6.1 -3.5 9.4 -10.0 12.8 15.1 5.8 15.7 .7 14.7 22.0 7.4 1.3 -1.0 1.3 2.2 1.4 -.1 -1.6 .5 .0 .4 1.1 1.6 1.6 .6 2.6 1.8 -2.0 1.1 3.5 .4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.2 -1.0 .9 2.2 -.1 1.0 .7 11.3 7.5 12.0 12.2 5.3 4.49 10.39 -1.7 1.3 -14.2 -7.6 -11.8 -6.0 -6.6 5.1 4.8 2.0 23.1 2.7 1.5 -.2 -.4 -.7 2.2 .0 3.8 -.6 .3 2.2 -.3 .0 5.2 3.4 43.68 26.75 15.69 2.07 6.11 7.51 11.06 .41 2.19 5.08 16.93 4.0 5.0 6.2 -2.9 15.9 2.5 3.2 -9.2 -.7 6.7 2.1 -8.2 -12.6 -12.1 -23.6 -5.7 -13.1 -13.5 -16.4 -11.3 -18.0 -.6 -3.2 -4.8 -9.1 -7.7 -8.1 -10.4 2.1 -2.2 -5.6 9.5 -.9 8.2 9.9 10.7 25.3 5.5 10.9 8.7 49.8 4.4 10.3 5.4 8.6 10.0 13.9 7.8 16.6 13.6 4.6 5.2 1.5 5.9 6.3 7.2 9.0 17.0 19.5 14.1 18.6 -1.7 14.0 3.2 -5.8 4.2 1.0 1.5 2.2 .3 2.3 2.6 .6 -.8 .0 .7 .0 .5 .0 .0 .4 .6 -.6 .0 1.2 -.1 -.5 1.5 .3 .8 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 -.3 -.1 1.2 -.8 -.5 .6 1.0 1.6 .3 1.3 2.1 .2 1.6 .6 .2 -.2 1.0 1.0 1.9 4.6 1.0 1.7 -.4 2.2 -.5 -1.3 1.0 .4 -.1 .2 -.8 .1 .6 -.5 -.4 -.6 -.3 1.1 9.8 11.4 16.7 32.5 13.0 15.5 4.1 13.8 2.1 5.5 7.0 321 327 331 332 333 334 75.40 71.66 37.47 .97 1.87 1.97 5.77 4.81 7.20 2.6 2.8 5.2 -4.5 -2.4 10.9 3.3 3.0 15.4 -10.0 -10.0 -11.3 -20.9 -15.9 -23.2 -7.1 -8.2 -2.6 -4.1 -3.7 -6.3 -10.7 -11.8 -3.1 -11.7 -19.1 1.7 7.1 7.2 8.0 -4.0 -16.0 51.1 5.7 9.4 11.6 6.1 7.0 9.2 .8 -2.3 32.6 7.2 20.9 14.1 7.9 8.3 14.1 11.3 21.5 16.2 17.2 27.9 18.6 .9 1.1 1.5 1.7 4.0 1.5 .8 2.2 1.4 -.3 -.2 -.3 -2.4 -2.9 .6 .1 .3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.4 .3 1.7 2.3 1.2 .3 1.8 .8 .8 1.5 2.1 5.0 .1 1.9 4.0 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.5 3.3 -.6 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.8 -.4 -.3 .1 -2.9 .9 2.2 .6 1.4 .3 8.3 8.9 13.7 1.3 2.9 46.1 9.4 16.6 16.3 335 3361–3 1.96 3.54 3.2 -2.7 -5.6 -27.5 -10.4 1.4 2.7 33.1 11.4 14.1 10.3 9.7 3.6 3.3 -.7 -2.4 1.8 2.1 2.9 -1.2 -1.7 5.6 -.5 -1.9 5.9 52.6 3364–9 337 339 4.62 1.29 3.47 17.5 -1.4 -1.6 -13.2 -16.3 -.2 2.6 -15.2 -2.9 -10.0 -4.3 6.8 -4.4 -1.2 -2.2 -4.3 18.4 7.9 .1 -1.5 .5 -.2 .7 -1.2 1.0 3.0 .7 -.6 1.0 1.4 -2.0 1.8 1.7 .5 -.5 -1.9 -3.2 1.7 3.9 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.20 11.38 .73 .34 2.54 1.81 2.43 12.28 2.70 .0 -1.2 -11.3 -23.1 -.3 .4 .7 3.2 -.6 -8.5 -3.3 -15.1 -14.9 -13.2 -9.2 -4.4 -10.4 -15.0 -.6 .0 -5.5 -13.9 -.3 -14.0 -1.5 3.9 -8.8 6.3 7.4 29.7 -1.3 4.8 -4.8 -7.0 7.7 10.9 4.6 5.4 4.3 25.7 6.7 -7.3 -6.9 4.9 13.4 2.2 2.7 7.9 -1.1 1.3 6.5 24.1 -6.2 19.4 .6 .7 -.1 4.9 .3 -.4 -3.7 1.2 1.3 -.1 .2 .3 -.6 1.2 -1.5 3.5 -1.2 .5 .7 1.1 -.2 -.9 1.1 -.5 4.3 -.4 1.3 .1 -.5 .9 .2 -.5 1.4 2.2 -.3 2.8 .4 1.5 1.9 -.2 .0 1.9 -1.8 -.5 .7 -.7 -1.7 -.7 1.4 -.8 -.7 1.4 -.6 .5 3.7 3.6 9.5 9.5 3.4 -2.2 2.2 2.4 13.2 1133,5111 3.74 -2.4 -9.1 -11.3 4.7 -9.9 -1.2 -2.1 -2.0 .4 -.8 2.5 -2.1 -2.3 21 2211,2 2211 2212 12.96 11.64 10.00 1.64 .1 3.1 3.4 1.6 -.3 -.3 -1.4 4.9 -4.5 -1.4 -1.7 .6 2.3 11.5 11.7 10.3 7.8 11.7 13.6 .6 13.2 -8.2 -3.5 -33.7 1.7 .8 .7 1.9 1.0 .5 .8 -1.0 1.7 -3.4 -3.1 -5.4 1.7 -4.4 -3.2 -12.1 -.3 5.6 5.3 7.5 .4 2.7 2.3 5.5 8.5 7.1 8.2 .6 Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas Mar.r 2009 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Feb.r June ’09 to June ’10 2008 M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Monthly rate 2010 Jan.r 2007 Total IP I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Annual rate 2009 2010 Q4 Q1r Q2p 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Under the industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of a NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are the relative weights for the rates of change for each series in the computation of the change in total industrial production in the following year. 8 Table 2 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Annual rate 2010 Q1r Q2p 2009 proportion 2007 2008 2009 2009 Q4 100.00 2.3 -7.6 -3.8 7.0 7.0 25.33 4.89 3.07 .44 4.32 12.61 2.2 2.6 2.3 -1.0 5.9 .9 .0 1.6 -.5 6.9 -5.1 .8 -2.0 -.9 -.1 -42.3 -.5 -1.1 7.8 12.5 7.2 64.8 14.9 2.0 74.67 2.3 -10.2 -4.4 3341 3342 3.92 .92 1.00 21.4 27.5 -11.5 -5.2 -4.9 2.2 334412–9 2.00 37.7 70.75 Monthly rate June ’09 to June ’10 2010 Jan.r Feb. 6.6 1.0 .0 .6 .3 1.3 .1 8.2 9.1 12.9 5.4 131.4 12.3 4.0 1.7 -7.0 -4.2 51.3 -3.8 7.2 .5 2.7 -1.5 7.9 .1 -.1 1.1 -.4 .1 7.3 1.2 1.6 -.6 -1.6 -.9 6.6 -2.9 .4 -1.3 -4.3 -3.8 5.1 -2.4 .6 2.0 4.0 4.3 .8 4.0 .1 1.4 3.5 1.6 -4.7 1.3 1.0 7.6 8.2 4.2 53.6 9.8 6.0 6.7 6.3 8.2 1.2 -.4 1.0 .8 1.1 -.4 8.4 4.0 -2.0 5.1 17.6 49.4 11.1 13.0 -8.6 1.4 18.6 22.3 -1.9 1.2 -1.2 -.5 1.5 -.2 -.4 1.4 1.0 -.3 1.5 2.0 .0 1.4 2.4 -.1 1.2 2.7 -.2 19.8 24.1 2.7 -8.2 6.5 8.6 30.6 27.5 3.1 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.3 26.9 1.2 -10.5 -4.9 6.1 5.9 7.7 1.2 -.5 1.0 .8 1.1 -.5 7.7 3.54 1.48 1.81 -2.7 -1.6 -3.6 -27.5 -31.5 -20.7 1.4 5.2 -2.9 33.1 47.3 19.3 14.1 16.7 9.4 9.7 7.8 6.8 3.3 5.4 1.4 -2.4 -5.4 -.5 2.1 4.5 .5 -1.2 -3.5 .1 5.6 8.2 3.0 -1.9 -2.6 -1.6 52.6 99.8 23.4 67.22 21.54 8.24 4.45 7.08 23.70 1.5 -2.1 5.3 -1.8 .4 3.2 -9.3 -5.3 -8.3 -14.3 -10.2 -11.9 -5.3 -2.3 -6.1 -12.0 -8.8 -5.7 4.6 4.7 3.0 -6.8 4.0 8.4 5.5 2.7 9.6 4.8 -.3 8.4 7.5 2.4 15.3 23.4 5.0 7.6 1.0 .6 1.5 1.6 .3 1.4 -.4 -.5 .0 -.4 -1.3 -.2 .9 .8 .9 2.2 .4 .7 .9 -.1 2.1 3.9 .7 1.0 .9 1.1 1.0 .3 1.4 .7 -.4 -1.3 .7 -.3 -.7 .0 5.7 2.5 8.9 5.2 2.3 8.8 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 96.08 71.48 33.69 1.4 1.5 3.3 -7.8 -10.3 -12.1 -4.1 -4.5 -7.5 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.7 5.7 8.8 6.1 7.3 13.7 1.0 .9 1.6 -.1 -.4 -.5 .5 1.0 1.4 .3 .7 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.5 .0 -.5 -.1 7.7 7.7 12.9 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 96.46 71.86 34.07 2.6 2.9 6.4 -6.6 -8.8 -9.0 -4.0 -4.4 -7.1 6.0 5.8 5.2 6.7 5.7 8.7 6.4 7.8 14.7 .9 .8 1.3 .1 -.2 -.1 .5 1.0 1.3 .4 .9 1.8 1.2 .8 1.1 .2 -.3 .3 6.8 6.5 10.3 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 92.54 67.95 1.7 1.8 -6.7 -9.0 -4.4 -4.9 5.4 5.0 6.4 5.2 5.9 7.1 .9 .8 .0 -.3 .5 .9 .3 .8 1.2 .8 .1 -.4 6.2 5.7 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 10.78 15.96 6.8 3.8 -11.4 -13.5 -7.3 -3.0 10.4 9.4 11.2 9.2 12.9 6.5 1.3 1.7 .4 -.3 1.5 .4 1.0 1.0 1.5 .6 -.2 .1 14.2 9.5 Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials r Mar. r Apr. r r May June p r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 3 M OTOR V EHICLE A SSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2009 average 2009 Q3 Q4 2010 Q1 Q2 2010 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 5.71 2.20 3.51 3.38 .13 6.54 2.49 4.06 3.93 .13 7.23 2.76 4.47 4.32 .15 7.48 2.79 4.69 4.55 .14 7.62 2.96 4.67 4.54 .13 7.60 2.76 4.84 4.69 .15 7.34 2.82 4.52 4.39 .13 7.50 2.79 4.71 4.57 .15 7.27 2.79 4.48 4.37 .12 8.00 3.17 4.83 4.70 .13 7.60 2.91 4.69 4.55 .14 Memo Autos and light trucks 5.58 6.42 7.08 7.34 7.49 7.45 7.21 7.36 7.16 7.87 7.46 Item NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 9 Table 4 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY 2007 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2009 proportion 2009 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2010 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep 100.00 88.6 89.1 89.6 90.5 90.4 91.0 91.2 92.5 92.5 56.32 29.00 5.97 2.72 .34 .96 1.95 23.04 18.14 9.55 .28 5.90 1.84 4.89 88.4 92.2 78.7 78.5 110.5 71.5 78.1 96.7 95.2 95.6 73.8 97.8 87.5 102.3 88.4 92.1 80.2 80.5 111.7 72.5 79.0 96.1 95.7 95.4 74.4 98.9 88.9 97.1 89.0 92.6 79.5 80.1 106.2 70.8 79.1 97.0 95.7 95.7 75.7 98.5 88.7 101.4 89.9 93.7 80.9 83.1 99.8 70.9 79.7 98.0 96.3 96.3 79.7 99.5 87.5 104.2 89.5 93.0 80.1 81.7 96.5 71.6 79.5 97.3 95.5 96.4 79.9 97.7 86.1 103.8 90.2 93.4 81.3 82.7 96.9 73.8 80.4 97.5 96.2 97.6 79.4 97.9 85.8 102.1 90.2 92.6 81.9 81.8 100.6 75.6 82.4 96.2 95.7 97.1 79.7 97.2 85.2 97.7 91.7 94.4 83.9 84.6 104.2 74.6 84.5 97.9 96.8 99.0 80.1 96.8 87.1 101.7 91.6 93.9 82.9 83.2 106.9 73.3 83.9 97.5 95.4 97.2 80.7 96.0 85.2 105.2 9.76 1.82 2.92 5.02 2.20 86.8 84.4 99.8 80.9 105.5 86.4 82.8 101.7 79.8 104.4 87.4 82.3 102.1 81.7 103.3 88.6 81.5 103.3 83.5 104.7 88.5 80.1 103.9 83.5 105.1 89.4 81.4 105.6 84.0 107.8 91.0 79.8 106.8 86.9 108.2 92.3 80.9 108.5 88.0 107.1 93.1 82.7 108.4 88.9 107.9 4.49 10.39 73.8 86.1 75.3 86.3 73.6 87.8 74.8 87.6 74.5 86.9 76.1 87.0 79.0 86.4 79.3 88.4 79.1 88.4 43.68 26.75 15.69 2.07 6.11 7.51 11.06 .41 2.19 5.08 16.93 88.9 82.9 80.1 67.0 90.9 76.9 87.2 75.1 83.0 88.2 99.2 89.9 84.4 81.3 68.2 90.9 78.9 89.2 79.7 84.8 90.7 99.1 90.3 84.4 81.4 68.4 91.8 78.5 89.1 78.9 83.8 91.2 100.2 91.2 85.7 83.2 68.5 93.9 80.5 89.6 78.3 83.9 91.9 100.2 91.7 85.7 83.2 68.8 94.4 80.0 89.6 79.2 83.8 91.4 101.7 92.0 86.4 84.5 70.1 95.9 81.2 89.3 79.2 84.8 90.7 101.2 92.5 87.3 85.9 70.3 97.2 83.0 89.5 80.4 85.3 90.8 101.0 93.4 88.1 87.5 73.6 98.2 84.4 89.2 82.2 84.9 89.7 102.1 93.8 88.1 87.7 73.0 98.3 84.9 88.7 81.9 84.3 89.4 103.1 321 327 331 332 333 334 75.40 71.66 37.47 .97 1.87 1.97 5.77 4.81 7.20 86.0 86.4 83.5 67.8 72.1 73.3 81.6 74.5 104.1 86.8 87.2 84.3 68.1 74.7 77.5 82.4 73.5 105.2 86.9 87.3 84.5 68.1 70.1 80.7 82.6 76.5 105.6 87.8 88.3 85.7 69.2 72.9 81.8 83.3 78.2 107.0 87.5 88.1 85.5 67.5 70.8 82.3 83.3 78.5 108.2 88.4 89.0 86.7 67.7 72.0 84.2 84.4 78.7 110.2 89.1 89.8 87.9 69.1 75.6 84.3 86.0 81.8 111.7 90.0 90.6 89.3 71.4 75.1 85.8 87.3 83.6 113.8 89.6 90.4 89.4 69.4 75.8 87.7 87.8 84.8 114.2 335 3361–3 1.96 3.54 84.3 69.3 84.8 71.0 83.3 71.2 86.3 73.5 85.7 71.8 87.2 73.3 89.7 72.4 88.2 76.4 87.7 74.9 3364–9 337 339 4.62 1.29 3.47 94.9 70.8 96.2 93.3 70.9 98.4 92.1 70.5 96.7 92.2 69.5 97.2 92.0 70.0 96.0 93.0 72.1 96.6 92.5 72.8 97.9 90.6 74.1 99.6 91.0 73.8 97.7 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.20 11.38 .73 .34 2.54 1.81 2.43 12.28 2.70 89.8 95.7 74.5 65.5 85.4 78.2 94.9 92.1 76.1 90.7 95.6 77.1 66.0 88.2 77.5 94.0 93.8 76.7 90.8 95.9 76.9 67.4 86.9 77.4 91.9 94.3 77.6 91.3 96.6 76.9 70.7 87.2 77.1 88.5 95.4 78.6 91.2 96.7 77.1 70.2 88.3 76.0 91.6 94.2 79.1 91.8 97.7 77.0 69.6 89.2 75.6 95.6 93.9 80.1 91.9 97.2 77.7 69.8 88.7 76.6 97.7 93.6 82.3 92.3 98.7 79.2 69.6 88.7 78.1 96.0 93.1 82.9 91.6 97.0 78.6 70.6 88.1 77.6 97.3 92.5 83.3 1133,5111 3.74 78.2 79.7 79.7 78.1 76.5 76.8 76.2 78.1 76.4 21 2211,2 2211 2212 12.96 11.64 10.00 1.64 96.0 98.4 96.2 111.4 96.7 95.8 95.9 94.4 94.9 101.2 100.6 104.2 96.5 102.1 101.3 106.1 97.4 102.6 102.1 105.0 99.1 99.0 98.9 99.3 100.8 94.7 95.7 87.3 100.5 99.9 100.8 93.8 100.9 102.7 103.1 99.0 Item Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Refer to notes on table 1. 10 Table 5 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : S PECIAL AGGREGATES 2007 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2009 proportion 2009 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2010 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep 100.00 88.6 89.1 89.6 90.5 90.4 91.0 91.2 92.5 92.5 25.33 4.89 3.07 .44 4.32 12.61 98.7 102.3 99.7 57.2 94.2 100.7 97.4 97.1 97.3 60.1 94.7 100.5 99.8 101.4 103.2 64.7 98.8 100.4 100.3 104.2 101.6 69.8 98.9 100.3 101.4 103.8 101.7 74.9 100.1 101.9 100.7 102.1 100.8 79.8 97.2 102.3 99.5 97.7 97.0 83.9 94.8 102.9 101.4 101.7 101.2 84.6 98.6 103.0 102.9 105.2 102.8 80.5 99.9 104.0 74.67 85.4 86.3 86.2 87.2 86.9 87.7 88.5 89.5 89.1 3341 3342 3.92 .92 1.00 106.9 106.0 100.2 107.4 107.8 101.5 107.8 104.9 102.8 109.1 103.7 102.3 110.7 103.5 101.8 112.3 104.5 101.5 113.9 106.6 101.5 115.6 109.1 101.4 117.0 112.1 101.2 334412–9 2.00 110.5 110.1 111.5 115.0 118.6 121.4 123.8 125.9 127.5 70.75 84.1 85.1 85.0 86.0 85.6 86.4 87.1 88.1 87.6 3.54 1.48 1.81 69.3 67.3 73.3 71.0 70.0 73.7 71.2 69.5 74.6 73.5 73.3 75.6 71.8 69.3 75.2 73.3 72.4 75.6 72.4 69.9 75.7 76.4 75.6 77.9 74.9 73.6 76.7 67.22 21.54 8.24 4.45 7.08 23.70 85.3 91.3 87.9 73.5 80.7 82.2 86.2 91.8 87.2 75.0 81.9 83.9 86.1 91.8 88.2 73.3 81.7 83.7 87.0 92.3 89.5 74.5 82.0 84.9 86.6 91.8 89.5 74.1 80.9 84.7 87.4 92.6 90.3 75.8 81.2 85.3 88.2 92.5 92.2 78.7 81.8 86.1 89.0 93.5 93.1 79.0 82.9 86.8 88.6 92.3 93.7 78.8 82.3 86.7 96.08 71.48 33.69 87.9 84.8 80.9 88.3 85.7 81.7 88.8 85.8 81.8 89.7 86.6 83.1 89.6 86.2 82.7 90.1 87.1 83.8 90.3 87.7 85.1 91.5 88.6 86.4 91.5 88.2 86.3 96.46 71.86 34.07 89.7 87.2 85.6 90.1 88.0 86.3 90.6 88.1 86.4 91.4 88.8 87.6 91.4 88.6 87.5 91.9 89.5 88.7 92.2 90.2 90.3 93.3 91.0 91.2 93.5 90.7 91.5 92.54 67.95 88.9 86.0 89.3 86.8 89.8 86.9 90.6 87.6 90.6 87.3 91.0 88.1 91.3 88.9 92.3 89.5 92.4 89.2 10.78 15.96 82.8 83.0 83.7 84.9 83.9 84.8 85.1 86.2 85.4 85.9 86.7 86.2 87.6 87.1 88.9 87.6 88.7 87.7 Item Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 6 D IFFUSION I NDEXES OF I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Percent Item One month earlier 2008 2009 2010 Three months earlier 2008 2009 2010 Six months earlier 2008 2009 2010 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 42.6 34.0 64.4 37.5 42.3 50.6 49.4 36.2 63.5 37.8 43.6 63.8 45.5 42.3 66.0 47.1 44.9 44.2 64.7 39.7 61.5 29.8 59.6 40.1 54.2 27.6 64.4 21.5 50.6 49.0 17.3 66.7 39.1 21.8 58.7 36.2 31.1 63.8 34.0 36.2 61.1 39.1 36.2 70.5 33.7 41.0 36.5 51.3 34.3 64.4 25.6 66.3 25.6 62.5 22.1 67.0 19.2 57.7 47.4 15.7 68.6 42.0 16.7 66.3 39.7 22.4 65.7 37.5 19.6 71.2 35.3 22.4 69.6 31.7 33.0 35.6 39.4 34.9 45.8 22.4 55.4 23.7 58.3 24.4 67.0 13.5 67.3 NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 11 Table 7 C APACITY U TILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 2009 proportion 19722009 ave. 199495 high 200809 low 2009 Q4 2010 Q1r Q2p 2010 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep 100.00 80.6 85.1 68.2 71.1 72.5 73.8 72.3 72.3 72.8 73.1 74.1 74.1 31–33 79.41 75.63 79.2 79.0 84.6 84.8 65.4 65.2 68.8 68.7 70.0 70.0 71.3 71.5 69.8 69.9 69.7 69.7 70.4 70.5 70.9 71.1 71.7 71.8 71.4 71.6 321 327 331 332 333 334 41.96 1.22 2.48 2.43 6.13 5.34 7.56 77.5 78.5 77.0 79.7 77.4 78.3 78.2 83.7 87.2 82.6 94.1 85.7 87.2 84.7 61.0 53.4 52.0 46.8 65.1 61.1 68.0 65.6 57.3 53.5 62.6 67.7 63.4 70.8 67.1 58.6 53.6 67.2 69.3 66.8 71.7 69.2 61.4 56.6 69.7 72.5 71.4 73.3 66.9 59.1 54.3 66.5 68.9 66.5 71.2 66.7 58.1 52.8 66.9 69.0 66.8 71.5 67.6 58.6 53.7 68.4 70.0 67.2 72.3 68.6 60.3 56.5 68.4 71.5 70.0 72.8 69.6 62.6 56.3 69.6 72.7 71.6 73.6 69.6 61.2 56.9 71.0 73.2 72.7 73.4 335 3361–3 1.93 5.59 83.0 75.8 93.0 87.6 70.4 35.8 72.1 54.9 74.4 57.6 76.4 59.5 74.2 57.9 73.8 56.8 75.2 58.2 77.4 57.6 76.1 61.0 75.8 59.9 3364–9 337 339 4.34 1.40 3.56 72.9 78.0 76.1 68.8 82.6 80.7 66.3 64.6 68.4 72.9 65.6 70.2 71.6 66.3 69.4 70.4 70.0 70.2 71.6 65.0 70.0 71.3 65.8 69.0 71.9 68.0 69.2 71.3 69.0 70.0 69.8 70.6 71.0 70.0 70.5 69.5 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 33.67 10.72 .87 .36 2.46 2.01 1.91 12.12 3.22 81.3 81.4 81.0 78.6 87.2 82.8 86.1 78.1 82.6 86.1 85.8 92.5 87.3 92.6 85.7 91.0 81.9 92.7 70.1 73.6 57.3 65.8 69.7 63.4 74.8 67.5 57.3 72.6 75.9 63.3 69.4 75.2 64.0 80.7 73.2 61.1 73.7 76.9 65.0 74.8 76.9 63.4 79.4 74.4 63.3 74.3 77.3 67.1 76.0 77.6 65.0 84.0 73.4 66.3 73.5 76.5 64.6 74.8 75.9 64.0 76.4 75.0 62.8 73.5 76.6 65.1 74.8 76.9 63.2 79.1 74.2 63.2 74.1 77.4 65.3 74.6 77.9 63.1 82.6 73.9 64.0 74.2 77.0 66.1 75.2 77.7 64.2 84.5 73.8 65.9 74.6 78.1 67.6 75.6 77.8 65.6 83.1 73.4 66.3 74.1 76.8 67.4 77.1 77.4 65.3 84.4 73.0 66.6 1133,5111 3.79 83.8 83.2 68.0 70.1 68.5 68.3 69.3 67.9 68.2 67.6 69.3 67.8 21 2211,2 10.24 10.34 87.4 86.7 88.9 93.3 79.6 77.6 81.7 79.8 83.3 81.6 86.0 79.5 82.2 82.4 83.1 82.6 84.5 79.7 86.0 76.1 85.8 80.2 86.1 82.3 3341 3342 4.13 .94 .93 78.3 78.0 76.4 86.8 87.0 83.6 67.0 67.7 73.4 72.5 80.1 80.2 72.5 77.5 78.0 73.5 79.9 75.7 72.1 77.7 79.1 72.5 77.2 78.0 72.8 77.5 77.0 73.2 78.6 76.4 73.6 79.8 75.8 73.9 81.4 75.0 334412–9 2.26 80.5 92.4 61.8 66.5 68.5 70.6 67.3 68.7 69.5 70.2 70.7 71.0 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 95.87 75.28 80.8 79.3 85.0 84.5 68.1 65.2 71.1 68.6 72.5 69.8 73.7 71.2 72.3 69.7 72.3 69.5 72.8 70.2 73.0 70.8 74.0 71.5 74.1 71.2 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 13.87 46.13 40.00 86.5 81.6 77.5 90.0 87.9 80.5 78.3 65.7 67.5 81.4 68.4 71.0 83.3 69.8 72.0 84.9 71.2 72.7 82.6 69.7 72.0 83.1 69.8 71.6 84.1 69.9 72.3 85.1 69.9 72.5 84.6 71.6 73.2 85.0 72.1 72.6 Item Total industry 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. 12 Table 8 I NDUSTRIAL C APACITY Percent change Average annual rate 19721980198979 88 94 Item Total industry Manufacturing Fourth quarter to fourth quarter 19952010 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q2 Annual rate 2010 Q4 Q1 2009 Q3 Monthly rate 2010 June 3.1 1.7 .8 .5 -.3 .1 -.5 -.7 -.6 .0 2.2 2.5 2.9 2.4 .5 -1.2 -.2 -1.4 -1.2 -.8 -.3 .0 .0 2.1 -.8 1.8 -.1 2.2 .9 .6 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.1 .0 1.5 2.2 3.3 .6 2.8 -.2 2.2 -.4 1.5 .0 .1 17.3 15.8 22.0 27.2 .3 7.7 11.4 11.2 13.5 13.3 11.8 .9 2.6 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.0 .5 -1.7 -.8 -2.0 -1.9 -1.4 -.9 .0 1.6 3.0 3.9 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 2.6 19.5 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing1 ex. selected high-technology industries 2.3 .7 4.2 Mining Utilities 1.9 3.3 1 .4 1.4 3.3 -.5 2.5 2.7 .2 3.0 2.7 .6 3.0 1.3 1.5 .6 .8 2.6 -.7 -.7 -.8 -.6 .9 1.8 -.9 -.9 .1 -.9 -.5 -.8 -.8 .1 -1.1 -.6 .8 -.1 .0 .1 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 9 G ROSS VALUE OF F INAL P RODUCTS AND N ONINDUSTRIAL S UPPLIES Billions of 2005 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 2005 2009 2009 Q4 2010 Q1r Q2p 2010 Jan.r Feb.r Mar.r Apr.r Mayr Junep 3,336.9 3,056.8 3,106.6 3,150.5 3,203.7 3,141.7 3,137.1 3,172.8 3,173.5 3,217.1 3,220.4 2,477.7 1,853.6 513.7 306.7 207.0 1,339.8 2,324.8 1,724.0 380.1 221.8 158.2 1,334.0 2,376.0 1,771.4 416.1 257.5 159.0 1,345.9 2,410.7 1,791.3 424.8 266.1 159.2 1,357.1 2,450.2 1,808.0 434.9 269.1 166.1 1,364.3 2,401.7 1,785.3 426.2 268.2 158.5 1,350.0 2,400.0 1,784.4 421.1 263.2 158.3 1,353.9 2,430.4 1,804.1 427.2 266.8 160.9 1,367.4 2,426.2 1,791.3 428.7 263.7 165.3 1,353.7 2,460.8 1,817.9 441.6 274.9 167.1 1,368.0 2,463.7 1,814.8 434.4 268.9 165.9 1,371.3 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 624.1 600.7 520.8 79.9 599.9 585.8 487.6 96.4 603.3 589.5 490.5 97.1 618.4 601.6 501.5 98.3 641.9 623.2 521.8 99.8 615.3 599.6 500.7 97.2 614.6 597.8 498.4 97.6 625.3 607.5 505.5 100.0 634.5 615.8 513.5 100.4 642.5 623.4 522.8 99.0 648.9 630.5 528.9 100.0 Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 859.2 270.1 589.1 210.9 734.0 205.8 528.5 211.0 733.6 204.0 529.9 211.1 742.9 207.3 536.0 215.4 756.6 216.5 540.3 215.5 742.9 206.5 536.8 214.6 740.1 205.6 534.9 215.6 745.6 209.7 536.3 215.8 750.4 216.4 534.1 211.3 759.4 216.7 543.0 216.4 759.8 216.3 543.7 218.9 Item Final products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable r Revised. p Preliminary. Table 10 G ROSS -VALUE -W EIGHTED I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S TAGE - OF -P ROCESS G ROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Finished Semifinished Primary Crude 2009 gross value1 2007 2008 2009 2009 Q4 1795.3 1497.9 1249.9 604.2 1.5 2.2 4.0 3.0 -8.9 -9.7 -8.3 -9.1 -2.0 -7.3 -2.2 2.3 9.1 6.3 9.7 5.6 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Billions of 2005 dollars. 13 Annual rate 2010 Q1r Q2p 7.8 6.7 6.8 7.3 6.9 8.6 4.0 3.8 Monthly rate 2010 Jan.r Feb. 1.4 1.2 -.8 1.3 -.5 -.3 1.7 .1 r Mar. r 1.3 .1 .5 .8 Apr. r .3 .5 -.8 .8 r May 1.4 2.3 .9 -.8 June p -.6 .2 1.0 .3 June ’09 to June ’10 11.0 8.4 7.7 7.3 Table 11 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)1 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 .0 .3 -.5 -.4 -.6 .4 -.4 .9 -.6 .8 .3 .3 .5 -.5 .8 .5 .0 -.1 .2 .7 -.1 -.7 .2 1.0 .3 .2 .0 .3 1.0 .0 .1 -.9 -.1 .0 .9 .5 .9 .2 .1 -.5 -.4 -.2 .2 .9 .2 .5 -.1 -.8 -.2 .7 .2 .3 -1.2 -.1 .4 .4 .6 -.7 -.3 .0 3.5 1.6 3.0 -7.4 -.4 3.5 -1.6 2.7 2.5 7.1 1.9 -2.5 1.5 5.6 2.8 2.9 1.8 -6.1 .9 4.0 5.2 .9 1.0 -1.5 2.8 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 .5 .4 .3 -.6 .1 .3 .0 .0 1.6 1.2 .0 1.1 .2 -.2 .8 .3 .5 -.1 .8 .0 -.4 .6 .2 .7 .7 .2 .7 .3 .9 .5 .3 .2 -.4 -.1 .6 .0 .6 1.4 .7 1.3 .4 .2 .4 .6 .9 .8 .8 -.2 .0 .7 .4 .6 .2 .8 .9 .5 1.1 .4 .6 .3 3.5 5.0 5.2 3.1 7.8 1.1 7.4 1.0 8.1 6.4 2.0 5.1 3.7 5.4 9.6 6.2 8.2 3.2 5.6 10.1 3.3 5.3 4.8 4.4 7.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .5 .5 .1 -.7 .6 .1 .4 .4 -.6 .0 .1 .2 .4 -.3 .8 .4 .2 .6 -.2 .4 .7 .8 .2 -.7 .5 -.6 -.2 .1 -.6 .9 -.4 .6 -.2 -.4 -.3 2.1 .4 -.2 -.3 .2 -.3 -.3 .5 -.3 .1 .7 1.3 -.4 -.5 -.3 -.1 .5 .0 -.5 .5 .3 .8 -.4 .0 -.5 4.5 4.1 4.7 -5.6 2.8 3.0 3.9 4.7 -5.0 6.5 3.0 3.9 -.5 -5.6 2.3 5.4 7.4 -1.1 -4.6 -.3 5.9 4.3 4.0 -3.3 .2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .7 .2 .5 .0 -.4 .4 .6 .7 .1 1.1 -.1 -.5 .0 .2 .1 -.8 .5 .0 .4 .7 .0 .7 .2 -.1 .0 .0 -.9 .3 .4 -.1 .4 .7 -.1 .3 .2 -.1 .2 .2 .3 .0 .6 -.1 -2.0 -.1 .4 .0 .9 1.0 .0 -.7 .8 .2 1.1 -.2 .4 -.1 .7 .6 1.0 .1 2.9 2.6 5.9 3.7 4.3 -3.0 1.8 2.0 2.6 4.5 2.2 1.8 -1.5 2.7 1.0 3.6 5.6 2.7 .9 -.7 1.3 2.3 3.2 2.2 2.7 2008 2009 2010 -.3 -2.1 1.0 -.2 -.8 .0 -.3 -1.5 .6 -.8 -.8 .3 -.5 -.9 1.3 -.4 -.2 .1 .0 1.4 -1.2 1.2 -4.0 .7 1.0 .3 -1.0 .5 -2.0 .5 -1.6 -17.6 7.0 -5.9 -10.3 6.6 -9.7 8.3 -13.0 7.0 -3.3 -9.3 IP (2007=100) 2008 2009 2010 100.1 89.1 90.5 99.9 88.5 90.4 99.6 87.2 91.0 98.8 86.5 91.2 98.3 85.7 92.5 98.0 85.5 92.5 98.0 86.7 96.8 87.8 93.0 88.4 93.9 88.6 92.9 89.1 91.0 89.6 99.9 88.2 90.6 98.4 85.9 92.1 95.9 87.6 92.6 89.1 96.7 87.7 Capacity (percent of 2007 output) 2008 2009 2010 123.7 125.0 125.1 123.8 125.1 125.0 123.8 125.2 125.0 123.9 125.3 124.9 123.9 125.4 124.8 124.0 125.4 124.8 124.1 125.4 124.2 125.4 124.3 125.4 124.5 125.3 124.7 125.2 124.8 125.2 123.8 125.1 125.0 123.9 125.4 124.8 124.2 125.4 124.7 125.2 124.1 125.3 Utilization (percent) 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.4 85.2 82.6 79.9 79.3 83.6 84.7 83.2 79.3 79.7 83.8 84.8 83.4 78.7 80.3 84.2 84.7 83.1 78.8 80.7 84.1 84.0 83.1 79.5 80.8 84.3 83.8 83.1 80.2 80.6 84.4 82.9 82.9 80.1 81.1 84.7 83.5 82.9 80.1 80.5 84.4 83.1 83.0 80.7 80.5 84.8 82.8 82.2 80.4 80.9 84.8 82.9 81.1 80.3 81.1 85.1 83.2 80.4 79.9 81.0 83.6 84.9 83.0 79.3 79.8 84.2 84.2 83.1 79.5 80.7 84.5 83.1 82.9 80.3 80.7 84.9 83.0 81.2 80.2 81.0 84.3 83.8 82.6 79.8 80.5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 81.2 82.5 85.0 82.6 83.4 81.4 82.3 84.7 83.6 84.0 81.2 83.0 84.6 83.1 84.2 81.4 83.2 84.2 83.4 83.8 81.0 83.4 84.0 83.5 83.9 81.1 83.7 84.0 83.9 83.8 81.2 83.6 83.3 83.4 83.8 81.1 83.8 84.2 83.6 84.5 81.4 83.8 84.2 83.7 84.7 81.9 84.2 83.6 83.3 84.7 82.1 84.4 83.5 83.6 85.0 82.3 85.1 83.5 83.7 84.7 81.3 82.6 84.8 83.1 83.9 81.1 83.5 84.1 83.6 83.9 81.2 83.7 83.9 83.6 84.3 82.1 84.6 83.5 83.5 84.8 81.4 83.6 84.1 83.4 84.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 84.5 81.9 82.1 79.1 73.8 84.1 81.9 82.1 78.4 73.7 83.6 81.8 82.1 77.9 74.1 83.4 81.6 82.4 77.5 74.4 83.4 81.9 82.2 76.8 74.7 82.5 81.4 82.0 76.1 75.3 81.7 81.6 81.5 75.6 75.0 83.0 81.7 81.1 75.1 75.1 82.3 81.1 81.2 74.7 75.2 82.5 81.9 80.7 74.2 75.0 82.0 82.0 80.4 73.6 75.3 81.9 82.3 79.9 73.5 75.0 84.1 81.9 82.1 78.5 73.9 83.1 81.6 82.2 76.8 74.8 82.3 81.5 81.3 75.1 75.1 82.1 82.0 80.3 73.8 75.1 82.9 81.8 81.5 76.0 74.7 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 75.6 77.0 79.8 80.6 80.6 75.9 77.4 80.3 80.5 81.3 75.8 77.0 80.2 80.6 81.3 75.2 77.4 80.2 80.8 81.7 75.3 78.0 80.4 80.6 81.6 75.4 77.3 80.5 80.9 81.3 75.7 77.8 80.4 81.0 81.4 75.7 78.0 80.4 81.0 81.3 76.1 78.0 78.7 80.8 81.5 76.2 78.7 79.5 80.6 80.9 76.8 78.9 80.3 80.3 81.2 76.8 79.4 80.6 81.0 81.2 75.7 77.1 80.1 80.6 81.1 75.3 77.6 80.4 80.8 81.5 75.8 78.0 79.8 80.9 81.4 76.6 79.0 80.1 80.7 81.1 75.9 77.9 80.1 80.7 81.3 2008 2009 2010 80.9 71.3 72.3 80.7 70.7 72.3 80.5 69.6 72.8 79.8 69.0 73.1 79.4 68.3 74.1 79.0 68.2 74.1 79.0 69.1 77.9 70.0 74.8 70.5 75.4 70.7 74.5 71.1 72.9 71.6 80.7 70.5 72.5 79.4 68.5 73.8 77.2 69.9 74.3 71.1 77.9 70.0 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 14 Table 12 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 -.2 .8 -.1 -.8 -.6 .2 -.9 1.4 -.6 .9 .3 -.1 .4 -.7 1.0 .8 .1 -.3 .3 .5 -.1 -.9 .1 .7 .6 .1 .1 .3 1.1 .3 .1 -1.1 -.2 .2 .9 .1 .9 .3 .2 -.4 .3 -.2 .0 1.1 .0 .6 -.2 -.8 -.2 .6 .3 .2 -1.2 -.2 .4 .4 .1 -.8 -.1 -.2 2.6 1.9 4.5 -8.8 .6 4.5 -3.0 2.6 2.0 8.1 1.2 -3.0 .9 7.3 3.9 4.5 .6 -6.8 1.7 2.8 5.3 .8 .8 -2.0 3.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1.0 .2 .3 -.7 .0 .2 .1 -.1 1.6 1.4 -.2 1.3 .2 -.3 1.2 .6 .8 -.2 1.0 -.2 -.1 .7 .0 .7 .9 -.1 .3 .4 1.1 .7 .3 .4 -.6 .3 .4 -.1 .8 1.2 .6 1.6 .6 .3 .9 .7 .9 .9 1.0 -.1 -.1 .6 .4 .8 .0 .8 1.1 .5 1.2 .4 .9 .4 4.4 4.8 5.6 2.4 9.3 1.6 9.5 .4 9.1 7.7 1.2 6.0 3.0 7.9 10.7 7.0 9.9 4.1 5.8 10.9 3.5 5.9 5.2 4.8 8.4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .8 .3 .2 -.6 .5 .1 .7 .3 -.6 .0 -.1 .0 .7 -.3 .7 .5 .4 .6 -.2 .1 .6 .9 -.2 -.8 .7 -.7 -.4 .2 -.7 1.1 -.5 .5 .0 -.3 -.5 2.6 .7 -.6 -.7 .4 -.3 -.3 .5 -.2 .1 1.0 1.5 -.4 -.7 -.5 .2 .6 -.3 -.3 .5 .5 .7 -.7 .3 -.5 6.1 4.6 5.2 -6.5 3.4 2.5 4.4 4.4 -5.2 5.9 3.3 3.6 -.7 -6.1 3.1 7.6 9.0 -2.7 -4.3 -.8 6.7 5.0 4.2 -4.0 .3 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .6 .0 .7 .7 -.4 .2 .7 .8 -.2 .6 .3 -.2 -.3 -.1 .8 -.9 .5 .2 .6 .7 .1 .7 .4 -.3 -.1 .4 -.9 .1 .3 .1 .1 .8 -.1 .1 .4 -.3 .7 .3 .4 -.5 .8 -.2 -1.0 .1 .5 .0 1.0 1.5 -.3 -.7 1.0 -.1 .8 .0 .3 -.2 .7 .0 1.5 .2 2.4 2.3 6.6 3.1 5.2 -2.0 3.0 2.2 1.3 5.4 1.9 3.5 -.3 1.9 .7 4.1 5.3 5.6 1.6 -1.0 1.3 2.8 4.0 2.5 2.9 2008 2009 2010 -.5 -2.7 .9 -.5 -.2 -.3 -.2 -1.7 1.0 -1.2 -.6 .8 -.5 -.8 1.0 -.6 -.1 -.4 -.5 1.7 -.9 1.3 -3.2 .7 -.4 .1 -1.9 1.0 -2.6 .1 -2.7 -21.0 6.1 -8.1 -9.3 7.9 -10.4 10.4 -18.0 7.1 -4.5 -11.1 IP (2007=100) 2008 2009 2010 100.0 85.7 87.8 99.5 85.5 87.5 99.2 84.1 88.4 98.0 83.5 89.1 97.5 82.9 90.0 96.9 82.7 89.6 96.4 84.1 95.6 85.3 92.5 85.9 92.2 86.0 90.4 86.8 88.1 86.9 99.5 85.1 87.9 97.5 83.0 89.6 94.8 85.1 90.2 86.6 95.5 85.0 Capacity (percent of 2007 output) 2008 2009 2010 127.0 127.2 125.7 127.2 127.1 125.6 127.3 127.0 125.6 127.4 126.8 125.5 127.4 126.7 125.5 127.4 126.5 125.5 127.5 126.4 127.5 126.2 127.5 126.1 127.4 126.0 127.4 125.9 127.3 125.8 127.2 127.1 125.6 127.4 126.7 125.5 127.5 126.2 127.4 125.9 127.3 126.5 Utilization (percent) 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.0 85.6 81.7 78.5 78.2 83.1 84.6 82.7 77.9 78.8 83.3 84.4 82.8 77.2 79.4 84.0 84.4 82.4 77.3 79.6 83.9 83.5 82.3 77.8 79.9 84.0 83.4 82.3 78.6 79.9 84.0 82.3 82.0 78.7 80.4 84.0 82.9 82.1 78.8 79.8 84.2 82.5 81.9 79.5 79.6 84.6 82.2 81.1 79.3 79.9 84.8 82.1 80.0 79.0 80.0 85.0 82.0 79.2 78.8 79.7 83.2 84.9 82.4 77.9 78.8 83.9 83.8 82.4 77.9 79.8 84.1 82.6 82.0 79.0 79.9 84.8 82.1 80.1 79.0 79.9 84.0 83.3 81.7 78.5 79.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 80.3 81.2 84.6 81.4 82.2 80.3 81.1 84.2 82.3 82.8 80.0 82.0 84.0 81.6 83.4 80.3 82.4 83.6 82.0 82.7 80.2 82.7 83.2 82.1 82.9 79.9 82.7 83.2 82.6 82.9 80.0 82.8 82.4 82.4 82.8 79.8 83.2 83.0 82.5 83.6 80.2 83.1 83.3 82.6 83.7 80.8 83.7 82.8 82.1 83.6 81.0 84.0 82.4 82.3 83.9 81.2 84.6 82.4 82.6 83.6 80.2 81.4 84.3 81.8 82.8 80.1 82.6 83.3 82.3 82.9 80.0 83.0 82.9 82.5 83.3 81.0 84.1 82.5 82.3 83.7 80.3 82.8 83.3 82.2 83.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 83.7 80.7 80.7 76.6 71.8 83.2 80.9 80.6 76.0 71.7 82.5 80.5 80.8 75.5 72.2 82.3 80.4 81.0 75.1 72.2 82.2 80.8 80.5 74.4 72.7 81.0 80.1 80.3 73.7 73.5 80.1 80.2 80.0 73.2 73.1 81.7 80.3 79.2 72.6 73.4 80.9 79.7 79.3 72.3 73.4 81.2 80.6 78.7 71.7 73.1 80.9 80.7 78.2 71.4 73.4 80.9 80.9 77.4 71.5 73.0 83.1 80.7 80.7 76.0 71.9 81.8 80.4 80.6 74.4 72.8 80.9 80.1 79.5 72.7 73.3 81.0 80.7 78.1 71.6 73.2 81.7 80.5 79.7 73.7 72.8 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 73.5 74.8 78.1 79.4 79.2 73.6 75.3 78.7 79.1 79.5 73.8 75.2 78.4 78.9 79.9 73.2 75.6 78.4 79.3 80.3 73.2 76.2 78.6 78.9 80.0 73.5 75.5 78.5 79.0 79.9 73.7 76.2 78.4 79.0 80.0 73.5 76.7 78.4 79.2 79.5 74.1 76.5 77.5 79.1 79.7 74.1 77.3 78.6 78.7 79.0 74.9 77.2 79.0 78.6 79.1 74.8 77.6 78.9 79.7 79.2 73.6 75.1 78.4 79.1 79.5 73.3 75.8 78.5 79.1 80.1 73.7 76.5 78.1 79.1 79.7 74.6 77.4 78.8 79.0 79.1 73.8 76.2 78.5 79.1 79.6 2008 2009 2010 78.7 67.4 69.8 78.2 67.3 69.7 78.0 66.2 70.4 77.0 65.9 70.9 76.5 65.4 71.7 76.0 65.4 71.4 75.6 66.6 75.0 67.6 72.6 68.1 72.4 68.2 71.0 69.0 69.2 69.1 78.3 67.0 70.0 76.5 65.6 71.3 74.4 67.4 70.9 68.8 75.0 67.2 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 15 Table 13 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, High-Technology Industries1 AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Excluding Selected Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 .0 .3 -.7 -.4 -.8 .4 -.4 .9 -.8 .7 .2 .3 .4 -.6 .8 .4 .0 -.2 .2 .6 -.1 -.7 .1 1.0 .2 .2 .0 .3 1.0 -.2 .1 -1.1 -.2 .0 .8 .5 .9 .2 .1 -.6 -.4 -.3 .2 .9 .1 .5 -.2 -.8 -.2 .6 .2 .2 -1.3 -.2 .3 .4 .6 -.8 -.5 .0 3.0 1.9 2.3 -8.0 -1.9 2.7 -1.8 2.2 2.1 6.1 1.4 -3.4 1.1 5.4 1.7 2.7 1.0 -6.7 .5 2.9 4.4 .6 .3 -2.0 1.9 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 .5 .4 .2 -.9 -.1 .3 .0 -.2 1.3 .9 -.1 .9 -.1 -.4 .5 .3 .3 -.3 .7 -.3 -.4 .4 .0 .5 .3 .2 .6 .1 .7 .2 .3 .0 -.5 -.5 .3 -.1 .4 1.2 .4 1.0 .3 .0 .1 .4 .7 .7 .6 -.5 -.3 .6 .3 .4 .1 .8 .7 .5 .9 .2 .5 .1 3.1 4.3 3.0 -.2 5.1 .4 5.3 -1.4 5.9 2.3 1.4 3.2 1.5 2.1 6.0 5.2 5.6 .5 3.2 7.8 2.5 4.0 2.4 1.7 4.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .2 .2 -.3 -.7 .7 .0 .1 .0 -.5 .0 .0 -.1 .1 -.3 .8 .2 -.1 .4 -.1 .4 .6 .6 -.1 -.6 .5 -.9 -.5 -.1 -.5 .8 -.8 .3 -.5 -.3 -.4 2.0 .4 -.4 -.3 .1 -.6 -.5 .4 -.3 .0 .5 1.2 -.5 -.5 -.3 -.3 .2 -.2 -.4 .4 .0 .5 -.5 -.1 -.7 1.9 .7 .5 -6.1 3.0 .9 .4 1.5 -4.2 6.2 -.2 1.0 -3.0 -4.4 1.5 2.3 5.4 -2.6 -4.7 -1.0 3.1 1.1 1.0 -3.9 .3 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .7 .1 .4 .0 -.4 .2 .5 .6 .0 1.1 -.3 -.6 -.1 .2 .0 -.9 .5 .0 .4 .6 -.1 .7 .2 -.2 .1 -.1 -1.0 .3 .4 -.1 .3 .7 -.2 .2 .2 -.1 .1 .0 .2 -.1 .6 -.1 -2.2 -.2 .3 -.1 1.0 1.0 -.1 -.9 .7 .2 1.1 -.2 .2 -.1 .7 .6 1.0 .0 1.5 1.8 5.1 3.3 3.7 -4.5 1.9 1.2 2.0 3.7 1.1 1.3 -2.8 1.8 .8 2.8 5.3 1.6 .2 -2.3 .2 1.7 2.5 1.4 1.9 2008 2009 2010 -.4 -2.0 1.0 -.3 -.7 -.1 -.4 -1.6 .5 -.9 -.9 .3 -.5 -1.0 1.3 -.3 -.3 .0 .0 1.3 -1.2 1.2 -4.1 .7 1.2 .2 -.8 .5 -1.9 .5 -2.7 -16.8 6.7 -6.8 -11.2 6.1 -9.6 7.4 -11.7 6.5 -4.0 -9.2 IP (2007=100) 2008 2009 2010 99.6 88.9 89.7 99.2 88.2 89.6 98.8 86.9 90.1 97.9 86.0 90.3 97.4 85.2 91.5 97.1 85.0 91.5 97.1 86.1 96.0 87.1 92.1 87.7 93.2 87.9 92.5 88.3 90.7 88.8 99.2 88.0 89.8 97.5 85.4 91.1 95.0 86.9 92.1 88.3 96.0 87.2 123.0 124.4 124.0 123.0 124.5 123.9 123.0 124.6 123.8 123.1 124.7 123.7 123.2 124.7 123.6 123.2 124.7 123.5 123.4 124.7 123.5 124.6 123.7 124.5 123.9 124.4 124.1 124.3 124.2 124.2 123.0 124.5 123.9 123.2 124.7 123.6 123.5 124.6 124.1 124.3 123.4 124.5 Utilization (percent) 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.6 85.6 82.8 80.2 79.1 84.0 85.1 83.5 79.5 79.6 84.1 85.3 83.7 78.9 80.2 84.5 85.1 83.4 79.0 80.6 84.4 84.4 83.3 79.7 80.7 84.5 84.3 83.4 80.4 80.5 84.6 83.2 83.2 80.3 81.0 85.0 83.8 83.3 80.2 80.5 84.6 83.4 83.3 80.9 80.5 85.0 83.1 82.5 80.6 81.0 85.1 83.2 81.4 80.4 81.1 85.4 83.5 80.6 79.9 81.1 83.9 85.3 83.3 79.5 79.6 84.4 84.6 83.4 79.7 80.6 84.7 83.5 83.3 80.4 80.7 85.2 83.3 81.5 80.3 81.1 84.6 84.2 82.9 80.0 80.5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 81.4 82.6 85.0 82.4 83.7 81.5 82.5 84.7 83.4 84.2 81.4 83.1 84.4 82.9 84.4 81.5 83.2 84.0 83.4 83.9 81.1 83.4 83.9 83.6 83.9 81.2 83.8 83.8 84.0 83.8 81.4 83.7 83.2 83.5 83.7 81.2 83.9 84.0 83.6 84.3 81.4 83.8 84.0 83.8 84.6 81.9 84.2 83.4 83.4 84.8 82.1 84.4 83.3 83.8 85.0 82.4 85.0 83.3 84.0 84.8 81.4 82.7 84.7 82.9 84.1 81.3 83.5 83.9 83.7 83.9 81.3 83.8 83.7 83.6 84.2 82.1 84.5 83.4 83.7 84.9 81.6 83.6 83.9 83.5 84.3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 84.6 82.0 81.5 78.7 75.0 84.3 81.9 81.4 78.2 74.9 84.0 81.6 81.4 77.8 75.5 83.8 81.3 81.6 77.7 75.7 84.0 81.6 81.4 77.1 76.1 82.9 81.0 81.3 76.6 76.7 82.0 81.1 80.7 76.3 76.4 83.4 81.3 80.3 76.0 76.4 82.6 80.7 80.6 75.6 76.5 82.8 81.5 80.1 75.1 76.3 82.3 81.6 79.8 74.7 76.6 82.0 81.9 79.3 74.6 76.2 84.3 81.8 81.4 78.2 75.1 83.6 81.3 81.4 77.1 76.2 82.7 81.0 80.5 76.0 76.4 82.4 81.7 79.7 74.8 76.4 83.2 81.5 80.8 76.5 76.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 76.7 77.3 80.3 80.8 80.5 76.9 77.8 80.8 80.7 81.3 76.8 77.4 80.7 80.8 81.2 76.1 77.8 80.7 80.9 81.6 76.1 78.4 80.8 80.7 81.6 76.1 77.7 81.0 80.8 81.5 76.3 78.3 80.8 80.9 81.6 76.3 78.4 80.8 80.9 81.5 76.7 78.4 79.0 80.7 81.8 76.7 79.2 79.7 80.5 81.0 77.3 79.4 80.5 80.2 81.3 77.2 80.0 80.9 80.9 81.3 76.8 77.5 80.6 80.7 81.0 76.1 78.0 80.8 80.8 81.6 76.5 78.3 80.2 80.8 81.7 77.1 79.5 80.3 80.5 81.2 76.6 78.3 80.5 80.7 81.4 2008 2009 2010 80.9 71.4 72.3 80.7 70.9 72.3 80.3 69.7 72.8 79.6 69.0 73.0 79.1 68.3 74.0 78.8 68.1 74.1 78.7 69.0 77.7 69.9 74.4 70.4 75.2 70.6 74.5 71.1 73.0 71.5 80.6 70.7 72.5 79.1 68.5 73.7 76.9 69.8 74.3 71.1 77.7 70.0 Capacity (percent of 2007 output) 2008 2009 2010 1. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 16 Table 14 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual -.2 .8 -.2 -.8 -.9 .2 -1.0 1.5 -.7 .9 .2 -.1 .3 -.8 .9 .8 .1 -.4 .3 .4 -.2 -.9 .1 .7 .5 .1 .1 .2 1.1 .1 .0 -1.3 -.2 .3 .8 .1 .9 .3 .2 -.5 .3 -.2 .0 1.1 -.1 .5 -.3 -.9 -.2 .5 .3 .1 -1.3 -.3 .3 .4 .1 -.8 -.3 -.2 1.9 2.2 3.8 -9.6 -1.2 3.5 -3.3 1.9 1.4 6.9 .4 -4.1 .4 7.2 2.6 4.3 -.5 -7.5 1.1 1.4 4.4 .4 .0 -2.6 2.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1.1 .1 .2 -1.1 -.2 .1 .1 -.3 1.3 1.0 -.3 1.2 -.1 -.5 .9 .5 .5 -.4 1.0 -.7 -.1 .5 -.2 .5 .5 -.2 .2 .2 .8 .4 .3 .2 -.8 -.1 .1 -.2 .6 .9 .3 1.3 .5 .1 .6 .5 .6 .8 .7 -.4 -.4 .5 .3 .5 -.1 .7 .8 .5 .9 .1 .7 .1 3.9 4.0 3.0 -1.6 6.2 .7 7.0 -2.5 6.7 2.8 .4 3.7 .3 4.1 6.6 5.9 6.9 .8 3.0 8.2 2.5 4.4 2.5 1.5 4.9 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .5 -.1 -.3 -.6 .6 -.1 .4 -.2 -.5 -.1 -.3 -.4 .3 -.3 .8 .3 .0 .4 -.1 .1 .4 .8 -.6 -.7 .7 -1.1 -.7 .0 -.5 1.0 -.9 .0 -.4 -.1 -.5 2.5 .6 -.8 -.7 .3 -.7 -.5 .4 -.2 .0 .7 1.4 -.5 -.7 -.5 -.1 .4 -.6 -.2 .4 .2 .3 -.9 .2 -.7 3.2 .7 .2 -7.2 3.7 -.1 .3 .6 -4.2 5.5 -.5 .2 -3.7 -4.8 2.2 4.2 6.7 -4.7 -4.4 -1.6 3.5 1.4 .7 -4.8 .4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 .5 -.2 .6 .7 -.5 -.1 .7 .7 -.3 .5 .1 -.2 -.4 -.1 .6 -1.1 .5 .1 .5 .5 .0 .7 .4 -.5 -.1 .3 -.9 .0 .2 .2 -.1 .9 -.2 .0 .3 -.3 .6 .1 .3 -.6 .8 -.3 -1.3 -.1 .3 -.1 1.1 1.5 -.4 -.9 .9 .0 .7 .0 .1 -.3 .6 -.1 1.6 .1 .7 1.3 5.6 2.6 4.5 -3.7 3.2 1.2 .4 4.4 .5 3.0 -1.9 .6 .4 3.1 4.9 4.3 .7 -3.2 .0 2.0 3.1 1.5 2.0 2008 2009 2010 -.6 -2.7 .9 -.7 -.1 -.4 -.4 -1.9 1.0 -1.4 -.8 .7 -.6 -.9 1.0 -.6 -.2 -.5 -.5 1.6 -.9 1.3 -3.3 .6 -.1 .0 -1.6 1.0 -2.4 .1 -4.2 -20.1 5.7 -9.4 -10.6 7.3 -10.5 9.3 -16.6 6.4 -5.5 -11.0 IP (2007=100) 2008 2009 2010 99.2 85.2 86.6 98.6 85.1 86.2 98.2 83.5 87.1 96.8 82.8 87.7 96.2 82.1 88.6 95.7 81.9 88.2 95.2 83.2 94.4 84.3 91.3 84.8 91.2 84.8 89.7 85.7 87.5 85.8 98.7 84.6 86.6 96.2 82.2 88.2 93.6 84.1 89.5 85.4 94.5 84.1 126.3 126.5 124.3 126.3 126.4 124.1 126.4 126.2 124.0 126.5 126.0 123.9 126.6 125.8 123.9 126.7 125.6 123.8 126.7 125.4 126.8 125.2 126.8 125.0 126.7 124.8 126.7 124.6 126.6 124.4 126.3 126.4 124.1 126.6 125.8 123.9 126.7 125.2 126.7 124.6 126.6 125.5 Utilization (percent) 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.4 86.0 82.0 78.8 77.9 83.5 85.1 83.0 78.1 78.5 83.7 84.9 83.1 77.4 79.2 84.3 84.9 82.7 77.5 79.4 84.2 84.0 82.6 77.9 79.7 84.2 83.9 82.7 78.7 79.7 84.2 82.7 82.4 78.8 80.2 84.3 83.2 82.4 78.8 79.7 84.5 82.9 82.3 79.6 79.6 84.9 82.5 81.4 79.4 79.9 85.1 82.4 80.3 79.0 80.0 85.4 82.3 79.5 78.7 79.7 83.5 85.3 82.7 78.1 78.6 84.2 84.3 82.7 78.0 79.6 84.3 82.9 82.4 79.1 79.9 85.1 82.4 80.4 79.1 79.9 84.3 83.7 82.0 78.6 79.5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 80.5 81.2 84.5 81.0 82.5 80.5 81.2 84.1 81.9 83.1 80.1 82.1 83.8 81.3 83.5 80.5 82.4 83.3 81.9 82.7 80.3 82.7 83.0 82.1 82.8 80.0 82.7 83.0 82.6 82.8 80.1 82.8 82.1 82.4 82.5 79.9 83.1 82.7 82.5 83.3 80.2 83.1 83.0 82.7 83.5 80.8 83.6 82.5 82.1 83.5 80.9 83.9 82.2 82.5 83.9 81.2 84.5 82.1 82.9 83.6 80.4 81.5 84.1 81.4 83.0 80.2 82.6 83.1 82.2 82.7 80.1 83.0 82.6 82.5 83.1 81.0 84.0 82.3 82.5 83.7 80.4 82.8 83.0 82.2 83.1 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 83.7 80.7 79.9 75.9 73.1 83.3 80.8 79.7 75.5 73.0 82.7 80.2 79.8 75.2 73.6 82.6 79.9 79.9 75.1 73.6 82.6 80.3 79.4 74.5 74.1 81.4 79.6 79.3 74.0 74.9 80.4 79.4 78.9 73.9 74.5 82.0 79.7 78.1 73.4 74.7 81.1 79.1 78.4 73.2 74.8 81.4 80.1 77.8 72.6 74.4 81.1 80.2 77.3 72.5 74.7 81.0 80.3 76.5 72.6 74.3 83.2 80.5 79.8 75.5 73.2 82.2 79.9 79.5 74.5 74.2 81.2 79.4 78.4 73.5 74.7 81.1 80.2 77.2 72.6 74.5 81.9 80.0 78.7 74.0 74.1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 74.7 75.1 78.6 79.5 79.0 74.7 75.7 79.2 79.2 79.4 74.8 75.5 78.8 79.0 79.8 74.1 76.0 78.8 79.3 80.1 74.1 76.6 79.1 78.8 80.0 74.3 75.9 79.0 78.9 80.0 74.3 76.6 78.8 78.8 80.2 74.1 77.1 78.8 78.9 79.7 74.7 76.8 77.7 78.8 79.9 74.6 77.7 78.7 78.4 79.1 75.4 77.6 79.2 78.3 79.1 75.2 78.1 79.0 79.5 79.1 74.7 75.4 78.9 79.2 79.4 74.1 76.1 79.0 79.0 80.0 74.3 76.8 78.4 78.9 79.9 75.0 77.8 79.0 78.7 79.1 74.6 76.5 78.8 79.0 79.6 2008 2009 2010 78.6 67.3 69.7 78.0 67.3 69.5 77.6 66.1 70.2 76.5 65.7 70.8 76.0 65.2 71.5 75.5 65.2 71.2 75.1 66.3 74.4 67.3 72.0 67.9 71.9 68.0 70.8 68.8 69.1 69.0 78.1 66.9 69.8 76.0 65.4 71.2 73.9 67.2 70.6 68.6 74.6 67.0 IP (percent change)3 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Capacity (percent of 2007 output) 2008 2009 2010 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 17 E XPLANATORY N OTE output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is A shown below. An output index for month m is denoted by Im for aggregate A and Im for each of its components. The monthly price measure in the formula (pm ) is interpolated from an annual series of value added divided by the average annual IP index. The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. In addition, the website includes files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that are published in a monthly supplement to the G.17, and historical data. Instructions on searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. A Im A Im−1 = Im p m Im−1 pm Im pm−1 × Im−1 pm−1 The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 4 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 4/10 percentage point (0.04 x 10% = 0.4%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/IPWeightsSa.txt). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2007. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) definition of manufacturing plus those industries— newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing plus logging—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 312 individual series based on the 2002 NAICS codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.htm). Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent five months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 70 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to 84 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 93 percent in the third month, 97 percent in the fourth month, 98 percent in the fifth month, and 99 percent in the sixth month. Data availability by data type in late 2009 is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2009) Month of estimate Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production and unit values or sales) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable direct measures of product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Physical product 25 39 48 52 53 53 Production-worker hours 45 45 45 45 45 45 IP data received 70 84 93 97 98 98 IP data estimated 30 16 7 3 2 2 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first row of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (25 percent out of a total of 53 percent). Of the 25 percent, about two-thirds (19 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the fourth estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the third estimate of the last month of a quarter, the fourth estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fifth estimate of the first month of a quarter. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through January 2010; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least January 2010. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or business cycles when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see the Federal Reserve Bulletins of February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added 18 Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.26 percent during the 1987–2009 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–2009 period. In most cases (about 85 percent), the direction of the change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the Census Bureau’s annual Survey of Plant Capacity (the predecessor to the QSPC) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the QSPC. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. C APACITY U TILIZATION Perspective. Over the 1972–2009 period, the average total industry utilization rate is 80.6 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate has been 79.2 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 89 detailed industries (71 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) definition of manufacturing plus those industries— newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing plus logging—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-technology industries and manufacturing excluding high-technology industries. References. The release for the annual revision that was published on June 25, 2010 is available on the Board’s website (www.federal reserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). The annual revision published in March 2009 is provided in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 95 (August 2009), pp. A125–A145. The annual revision published in March 2008 is described in an article published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 94 (August 2008), pp. A41–A60. A summary of the annual revision that incorporated back to 1972 production and capacity indexes reclassified according to the North American Industry Classification System is available in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 89 (April 2003), pp. 151–176. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/CapitalStockDocLatest.pdf. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 25 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity (QSPC); these industries account for a bit less than 70 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 5 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/CapNotes.htm). Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005, March 2006, May 2007, August 2008). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2010: January 15, February 17, March 15, April 15, May 14, June 16, July 15, August 17, September 15, October 18, November 16, and December 15. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating the annual capacity aggregate with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A 19
