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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EST) February 18, 2009 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production fell 1.8 percent in January. At 101.3 percent of its 2002 average, output in January was 10.0 percent below its year-earlier level. Production in the manufacturing sector dropped 2.5 percent with broad-based declines among its components. A plunge in motor vehicle and parts production that resulted from (over) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY Seasonally adjusted 2002=100 Percent change Industrial production 2008 Aug.r 2009 Jan.p 2008 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r Total index Previous estimates 109.8 109.8 105.3 105.2 107.0 107.1 105.7 105.7 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 110.5 103.8 129.3 104.9 100.9 110.8 107.5 102.4 119.7 102.2 98.5 104.3 108.3 104.3 116.3 102.3 97.0 107.4 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 110.7 110.8 105.2 103.9 106.5 106.4 94.9 105.5 107.2 107.4 102.4 107.4 103.2 103.6 101.3 -1.3 -1.3 -4.1 -4.2 1.6 1.8 -1.2 -1.3 -2.4 -2.0 -1.8 -10.0 108.0 103.4 118.7 100.1 93.1 105.6 106.8 101.3 121.6 97.1 89.3 102.1 104.4 99.5 117.1 96.1 86.3 100.4 -1.6 -2.1 -.4 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -2.7 -1.4 -7.4 -2.5 -2.4 -5.9 .8 1.9 -2.9 .0 -1.5 3.0 -.3 -.9 2.1 -2.1 -4.0 -1.7 -1.1 -2.0 2.4 -3.1 -4.1 -3.3 -2.2 -1.8 -3.7 -1.0 -3.4 -1.7 -8.4 -7.9 -10.9 -10.7 -16.7 -11.2 104.8 105.0 104.9 109.5 101.8 102.5 103.8 109.3 99.2 -1.1 -1.0 -.5 -4.6 -3.8 -3.9 -9.8 1.6 .6 .9 7.9 1.8 -2.2 -2.2 2.5 2.0 -2.9 -2.3 -1.0 -.2 -2.5 -12.9 -1.3 2.7 -.8 1.3 Percent of capacity 200102 2008 2008 low Jan. Aug.r 102.5 112.3 Average 19722008 198889 high 199091 low 199495 high Total industry Previous estimates 80.9 85.0 78.6 85.1 73.6 81.0 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 79.6 85.4 77.1 84.6 71.5 79.1 87.6 86.8 86.3 92.7 83.6 84.1 88.7 93.9 84.8 84.6 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.7 82.1 77.6 88.3 86.4 82.8 84.4 77.8 77.1 89.5 88.2 80.4 81.9 74.6 69.9 Capacity utilization 2009 Jan.p Jan. ’08 to Jan. ’09 Capacity growth 2009 Jan.p Jan. ’08 to Jan. ’09 73.3 73.6 72.0 1.3 71.9 71.9 91.2 84.8 69.7 70.2 90.2 84.5 68.0 1.4 88.9 86.7 .7 2.1 86.6 74.2 71.9 84.7 71.6 70.9 83.9 70.4 69.3 .5 1.5 1.6 Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 78.3 78.3 75.0 75.0 76.1 76.3 75.2 75.2 90.2 87.4 76.2 76.2 91.6 80.9 73.2 73.1 82.6 82.0 73.6 73.7 89.0 83.3 89.5 81.3 77.5 89.4 77.7 74.7 79.7 75.2 73.1 86.2 76.2 72.2 r Revised. p Preliminary. Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS. 1 extended plant shutdowns subtracted more than 1.0 percentage point from the change in manufacturing production. The output of mines moved down 1.3 percent. A swing to below-average temperatures contributed to an increase of 2.7 percent in the output of utilities. The capacity utilization rate for total industry fell to 72.0 percent, a rate 8.9 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2008. Market Groups The production of consumer goods contracted 1.8 percent in January, and the rate of change for the fourth quarter was revised down 1.4 percentage points to show a drop of 4.2 percent (annual rate). In January, consumer durable goods fell 10.5 percent, consumer non-energy nondurable goods declined 0.4 percent, and consumer energy products increased 1.2 percent. Among consumer durables, the output of automotive products decreased 20.6 percent, as motor vehicle assemblies fell about 40 percent to an annual rate of 3.9 million units. The production of home electronics moved down 1.3 percent, and the indexes both for appliances, furniture, and carpeting and for miscellaneous goods dropped 2.3 percent. Among non-energy nondurable goods, the output of foods and tobacco rose 0.4 percent; however, the index for clothing retreated 3.3 percent, the index for consumer chemical products decreased 1.1 percent, and the index for paper products moved down 1.6 percent. An increase in residential sales of electricity and natural gas accounted for the gain in the index for consumer energy goods, while the production of fuels moved lower. The output of business equipment dropped 3.7 percent. The production of industrial and other equipment contracted 3.0 percent, and the production of transit equipment fell 11.7 percent. The index for information processing equipment was little changed after having posted steep declines in the second half of 2008. In January, higher output of some types of communications equipment offset declines elsewhere. The output of defense and space equipment increased 1.4 percent in January but is down about 2 percent over the past year. Among nonindustrial supplies, the production of construction supplies decreased 3.4 percent in January. The production of business supplies edged down 0.1 percent; however, excluding energy sales to businesses, this index dropped 1.7 percent. Materials output declined 1.7 percent in January. The production of energy materials was unchanged, but the output of non-energy materials moved down 2.8 percent. Among non-energy materials, the index for durable materials fell 4.6 percent. Lower production of motor vehicle parts was largely responsible for the 14.9 percent drop in the index for consumer parts. Reduced production of semiconductors helped to pull the index for equipment parts down 3.1 percent. The index for other durable materials fell 2.7 percent. The output of nondurable materials declined 0.3 percent, as the production of textile materials, paper materials, and chemical materials all moved lower. Industry Groups In January, manufacturing output fell 2.5 percent and was 12.9 percent below its year-earlier level. The factory operating rate moved down 1.7 percentage points, to 68.0 percent, the lowest rate of utilization since this series began in 1948. The index for durable goods dropped 4.8 percent. The output of motor vehicles and parts decreased at a monthly rate of 23.4 percent in January, after having contracted at an annual rate of more than 37 percent in the fourth quarter. All of the remaining major indexes fell sharply in January with the exception of miscellaneous manufacturing, which moved up 0.3 percent. The production of nondurable goods decreased 0.5 percent. The output of food, beverage, and tobacco products rose 0.6 percent after having fallen more than 2 percent in December, but declines were recorded in all the other major nondurable goods industries. 2 The index for the other manufacturing category, which consists of publishing and logging, decreased 1.5 percent. The output of electric and gas utilities rose 2.7 percent, and the operating rate moved up 2.2 percentage points, to 86.7 percent. Mining output fell 1.3 percent, and the utilization rate dropped to 88.9 percent, a rate below its year-earlier level but 1.3 percentage points above its 1972–2008 average. Capacity utilization rates in January at industries grouped by stage of process were as follows: At the crude stage, utilization decreased 0.8 percentage point, to 83.9 percent, a rate 2.8 percentage points below its 1972–2008 average; at the primary and semifinished stages, utilization moved down 1.2 percentage points, to 70.4 percent, a rate 11.7 percentage points below its long-run average; and at the finished stage, utilization declined 1.6 percentage points, to 69.3 percent, a rate 8.3 percentage points below its long-run average. Note: Preliminary Estimates of Industrial Capacity The data in this release include preliminary estimates of industrial capacity for 2009. Measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter, total industrial capacity is projected to decrease 0.3 percent this year after having expanded 1.5 percent in 2008. Manufacturing capacity is estimated to decline 0.6 percent in 2009 after having risen 1.7 percent last year. In 2009, mining capacity is estimated to expand 0.8 percent, about the same as in 2008, and utilities capacity is projected to rise 1.7 percent, which is 0.5 percentage point slower than it had last year. With the publication on March 27, 2009, of the annual revision to industrial production, capacity, and capacity utilization, these estimates will be updated to reflect more-comprehensive source data, including the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Plant Capacity for the fourth quarter of 2008, which covers manufacturing. Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change Motor Vehicle Assemblies Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Industrial Capacity Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups Historical Statistics: Total Industry Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Further detail is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). 3 Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization on March 27, 2009. The revised IP indexes will incorporate data from selected editions of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2007 Current Industrial Reports. Detailed data from the 2007 Economic Census, however, are not expected to be available. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2007 will also be incorporated. The update will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry as well as changes in the estimation methods for some series. Any changes to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present. Once the revision is published, it will be available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data will also be available through the website of the Department of Commerce. Further information on the revision can be obtained from the Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone number 202-452-3197). 4 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization 160 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Total Manufacturing 135 160 135 110 Capacity 110 85 85 Production Detail: 2005 to present 60 118 60 Production 114 110 106 102 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 98 2005 2010 Percent of capacity 100 95 35 100 95 Utilization 85 85 75 75 65 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 65 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). See note on cover page. 5 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization Consumer goods Ratio scale, 2002=100 Equipment 115 115 110 110 105 105 Nondurable 100 100 95 95 90 140 130 130 120 85 80 80 75 75 110 110 100 100 90 70 80 120 120 120 115 115 1998 2000 2002 2004 Nonindustrial supplies 110 2006 2008 Ratio scale, 2002=100 Construction 1998 2000 2002 105 100 100 95 95 85 1998 2000 2002 2004 Capacity utilization 2006 2008 Primary and semifinished processing 115 Non-energy 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 Energy 85 90 80 80 85 75 1998 2000 2002 2004 Capacity utilization 2006 2008 75 Percent of capacity 95 95 Crude processing 90 85 90 85 85 80 80 80 80 Finished processing 75 75 Excluding utilities 70 65 80 85 90 85 2008 110 Percent of capacity 90 2006 Ratio scale, 2002=100 90 Other business 2004 120 115 110 90 Defense and Space Industrial materials 105 90 120 Business 90 Durable 85 70 Ratio scale, 2002=100 140 1998 2000 2002 2004 70 2006 2008 65 75 75 70 70 65 6 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 65 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 125 115 125 115 Excluding high-technology industries 95 95 75 75 Total IP 55 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 55 1990 1995 Industrial production 2000 2005 35 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1970 1975 Industrial production 1980 1985 Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 400 300 200 150 200 150 Communications eq. 95 50 50 2000 2005 100 95 Excluding high-technology industries 85 85 75 75 65 65 Semiconductors 10 1998 2000 2002 -15 Percent of capacity 100 100 Computers 1995 -10 Capacity utilization 400 300 100 1990 -5 High-technology industries 2004 2006 2008 10 55 1990 1995 2000 2005 55 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 7 Table 1 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item 2008 proportion1 Nov.r Dec.r 100.00 1.7 2.1 -6.1 -3.4 -8.9 -12.1 -1.3 -4.1 1.6 -1.2 -2.4 -1.8 -10.0 55.60 29.47 5.91 2.75 .30 .91 1.94 23.56 16.20 8.96 .50 4.75 1.51 7.36 1.0 .2 -3.9 -5.3 11.5 -6.1 -2.8 1.5 2.1 .3 .3 7.7 -2.4 -.2 1.3 1.1 .9 3.6 14.2 -6.0 -1.5 1.2 .9 1.5 -1.9 .0 1.1 1.9 -5.5 -4.1 -17.5 -22.3 -1.4 -20.8 -11.0 -.2 -1.4 -1.1 -7.7 -.9 -3.9 2.6 -4.3 -5.5 -16.1 -29.7 22.1 -7.5 -2.1 -2.3 -.7 .2 -9.1 .2 -5.8 -6.1 -7.5 -7.2 -9.4 -8.3 -3.5 -20.0 -6.6 -6.6 -2.2 -4.1 5.4 .5 -4.3 -16.3 -10.5 -4.2 -31.4 -34.7 -25.4 -33.6 -26.4 4.0 -3.4 -.1 -22.1 -5.4 -9.8 22.8 -1.4 -2.1 -6.0 -10.2 -2.8 -4.0 -1.1 -1.1 -.2 -.4 .5 -.4 .2 -3.0 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 1.4 -2.9 -4.3 -2.6 -1.5 .2 .5 -1.4 .4 -1.1 -5.4 .6 1.9 -2.8 -4.0 -1.2 -1.5 -1.9 3.1 -.1 .4 -2.4 -.4 -1.2 10.9 -.8 -.9 -3.0 -2.0 -2.7 -5.5 -3.3 -.4 -.3 .1 -3.8 -.9 -.2 -.6 -1.6 -2.0 -5.3 -7.5 -4.1 -1.9 -4.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 .0 -1.9 -1.8 -10.5 -20.6 -1.3 -2.3 -2.3 .1 -.4 .4 -3.3 -1.1 -1.6 1.2 -9.0 -7.9 -28.6 -41.2 -7.6 -21.9 -15.4 -2.3 -3.2 -1.7 -13.2 -3.9 -7.4 -.3 8.92 1.46 2.64 4.82 1.76 7.8 9.1 12.8 4.4 -2.6 2.8 -3.4 8.9 1.7 5.2 -8.9 -27.0 -1.0 -7.1 -1.7 -4.0 -8.0 12.2 -11.1 -1.3 -11.7 -42.3 -10.1 -.2 -5.7 -21.5 -43.4 -15.4 -17.7 -1.4 -.4 -3.9 -1.1 1.2 .0 -7.4 -34.3 -1.3 -2.2 -1.8 -2.9 -11.0 -1.2 -2.0 1.3 2.1 30.6 -1.6 -1.4 -.5 2.4 29.8 -1.8 -2.3 -.4 -3.7 -11.7 .1 -3.0 1.4 -10.9 -17.6 -4.2 -12.4 -1.9 3.99 10.60 -3.5 -.3 -1.6 1.1 -11.1 -6.0 -4.9 -3.5 -4.1 -7.6 -26.0 -12.3 -1.1 -.9 -2.4 -2.6 -1.5 .6 -4.0 -1.4 -4.1 -2.7 -3.4 -.1 -16.7 -8.5 44.40 28.50 16.81 2.55 5.81 8.46 11.68 .46 2.15 5.81 15.90 2.5 1.3 1.2 -5.8 9.4 -2.0 1.6 -12.2 1.6 4.9 5.2 3.2 3.5 5.4 -2.0 12.5 3.0 .6 -9.4 -1.3 2.1 2.7 -6.8 -10.7 -10.3 -19.8 -3.4 -11.9 -11.3 -14.7 -11.0 -14.4 .3 -2.2 -3.0 -2.4 -12.4 4.0 -3.6 -4.0 -11.1 -2.1 -4.9 -.8 -10.6 -9.9 -4.7 -13.9 1.4 -6.1 -17.1 -3.6 -9.5 -26.6 -11.6 -14.1 -25.9 -30.8 -37.4 -25.4 -32.4 -18.2 -28.9 -26.2 -18.1 10.9 -1.2 -.9 -1.0 -6.0 .6 -.6 -.8 2.0 .1 -1.8 -1.7 -5.9 -4.8 -2.1 -.9 -1.4 -2.8 -8.8 -3.5 -2.3 -15.9 -7.9 3.0 .7 -2.5 -3.8 -1.9 -2.6 5.8 -1.1 -.8 13.8 7.2 -1.7 -4.2 -4.4 -3.8 -4.4 -4.6 -3.8 -5.1 -5.0 -5.4 2.8 -3.3 -5.3 -5.7 -7.7 -5.0 -5.6 -4.7 -6.7 -5.8 -5.3 -.1 -1.7 -2.8 -4.6 -14.9 -3.1 -2.7 -.3 -1.0 -1.5 -.2 .0 -11.2 -17.4 -19.0 -34.9 -12.1 -18.7 -15.3 -18.6 -17.3 -18.9 .2 321 327 331 332 333 334 77.41 73.98 36.43 .99 2.16 2.67 5.50 4.64 6.54 1.1 1.4 1.6 -13.3 -3.5 -4.2 3.2 2.5 12.2 2.3 2.5 3.9 -6.8 .7 4.1 3.4 -.7 13.9 -8.0 -8.0 -10.6 -20.3 -10.0 -23.4 -7.8 -9.7 -.8 -4.1 -3.8 -5.7 -8.2 -4.8 -11.8 -7.5 -9.5 14.7 -8.7 -8.6 -7.0 -14.1 -4.5 -5.0 -7.2 -4.6 -2.0 -17.4 -17.7 -26.9 -40.7 -21.2 -62.4 -16.6 -22.0 -24.6 -1.1 -1.1 -1.5 -.9 -1.4 -1.4 .1 1.8 -.6 -3.8 -3.9 -3.3 -4.5 -2.2 -5.6 -1.2 -3.3 -1.2 .6 .7 -2.5 -5.3 .3 -8.0 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.8 -4.9 -11.7 -1.2 -2.1 -4.2 -2.9 -3.0 -3.1 -7.2 -3.0 -11.3 -3.6 -3.7 -3.8 -2.5 -2.6 -4.8 -4.0 -3.0 -2.2 -4.1 -4.2 -1.7 -12.9 -13.0 -17.5 -25.8 -14.2 -36.2 -14.2 -16.0 -7.7 335 3361–3 1.95 4.28 -.5 -5.9 3.7 -2.2 -4.9 -22.9 3.1 -28.5 -5.8 -7.8 -17.0 -37.3 -1.2 -10.8 -2.5 1.0 -.4 -4.1 -1.5 -2.2 -3.4 -8.1 -2.0 -23.4 -10.3 -43.7 3364–9 337 339 3.40 1.25 3.06 4.5 -1.6 2.7 10.9 -1.7 1.5 -12.6 -18.9 -2.3 -3.9 -10.1 -1.4 -23.4 -16.9 3.1 -19.9 -31.2 -10.8 -.1 -3.6 1.7 -16.7 -2.0 -1.6 -2.6 -3.2 -.8 8.5 -4.5 -1.3 12.3 -1.4 -2.1 -2.2 -2.1 .3 -6.3 -20.2 -4.8 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 37.56 10.89 .83 .53 2.47 1.73 6.54 11.63 2.92 1.3 .3 -11.7 -.8 .3 1.9 2.2 5.0 -3.6 .9 2.1 -8.1 -2.0 -2.2 -1.3 -.5 1.4 4.4 -5.3 -1.2 -12.7 -7.7 -11.0 -8.5 .4 -8.2 -10.9 -1.7 .3 -10.4 -8.2 .0 -7.4 -.2 -2.4 -3.4 -10.3 -4.4 -4.9 5.8 -7.0 -12.0 -17.9 -14.4 -4.1 -7.7 -.6 -23.1 -23.2 -30.5 -10.1 14.7 -12.4 -26.0 -.7 -.3 .6 .3 .8 1.4 -1.6 -1.0 -1.8 -4.6 .3 -2.6 -1.2 -3.4 -1.0 -10.9 -7.4 -2.3 3.9 .5 -1.0 -2.6 -2.0 -.2 15.2 5.7 -2.3 -2.2 .1 -3.6 -4.1 -4.8 -1.5 -3.0 -3.2 -2.6 -2.9 -2.2 -4.8 -1.3 -5.4 -3.6 -.9 -3.7 -4.0 -.5 .6 -1.2 -3.1 -1.1 -3.4 -.2 -.4 -3.5 -8.5 -1.8 -15.3 -13.0 -16.9 -13.6 -4.3 -11.7 -15.7 1133,5111 3.43 -4.5 -1.4 -8.7 -10.4 -9.5 -11.3 -.8 -.9 -1.2 -.5 -1.6 -1.5 -10.6 21 2211,2 2211 2212 12.92 9.67 7.88 1.78 8.2 -.7 -1.2 1.5 .2 3.1 3.3 2.0 1.0 .2 -1.0 5.5 2.0 -4.5 -3.5 -9.1 -7.9 -11.6 -9.7 -20.1 6.9 10.3 6.4 29.8 -.5 -4.6 -5.0 -2.7 -9.8 1.6 2.1 -.8 7.9 1.8 .6 7.3 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.7 -1.0 -.2 -.2 -.4 -1.3 2.7 2.2 5.0 -.8 1.3 .6 4.6 Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas Oct.r Jan. ’08 to Jan. ’09 2008 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Sept.r 2009 Jan.p 2007 M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Monthly rate 2008 Aug.r 2006 Total IP I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Annual rate 2008 Q2 Q3r Q4r 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Under the industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of a NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year. 8 Table 2 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Q3 Q4 2008 Aug.r 2008 Sept. 2.1 -6.1 -3.4 -8.9 -12.1 -1.3 -4.1 1.6 3.7 -.2 1.2 14.8 2.5 6.4 2.3 1.9 2.0 -.8 5.3 1.6 1.1 2.6 .4 6.9 -3.7 1.8 -1.6 -6.1 -.9 20.1 -5.6 1.2 -11.6 -16.3 -6.5 16.4 -19.4 -8.6 12.2 22.8 2.0 -7.6 10.3 11.2 -2.1 -3.0 -3.3 2.3 -3.5 -1.1 -6.2 -5.4 -1.7 3.4 -1.9 -10.0 72.77 1.1 2.1 -8.6 -4.0 -7.9 -19.9 -1.0 3341 3342 4.00 .89 1.29 17.3 18.0 20.6 22.3 16.7 20.6 -2.1 -11.2 4.6 19.7 9.3 25.3 -2.3 -22.3 -9.1 -33.6 -42.0 -2.0 334412–9 1.82 15.4 25.9 -2.6 21.3 14.0 68.77 .0 .8 -9.1 -5.5 4.28 1.81 2.21 -5.9 -7.0 -4.3 -2.2 -2.7 .5 -22.9 -29.6 -14.6 64.49 19.46 7.09 3.94 7.18 25.06 .6 1.0 5.8 -3.7 -1.6 .7 1.1 .3 2.8 -1.9 -.1 1.8 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 96.00 73.41 32.58 .9 .1 -.5 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 95.72 73.12 32.30 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 2007 100.00 1.7 27.23 7.36 3.16 .80 4.29 11.61 Monthly rate r Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 2006 Annual rate 2008 Q2 Total industry 2008 proportion 2009 Jan.p -1.2 -2.4 -1.8 -10.0 7.3 10.9 2.5 -1.1 4.6 8.2 1.5 -.6 1.1 -2.9 .7 3.5 -.3 .0 -1.2 -5.5 .1 -.1 .4 1.2 3.4 -10.4 1.1 -.5 .0 -.3 1.2 -9.0 -3.5 1.7 -3.3 -.4 -2.2 -3.2 -2.7 -13.6 -.8 -2.5 -1.5 -1.2 -3.8 .3 -2.9 -4.5 .1 -6.1 -5.2 .1 -6.2 -6.1 -1.2 -3.2 -3.6 1.5 -12.7 -22.5 4.5 -46.5 .5 -1.1 -4.2 -10.8 -10.1 -7.1 -20.4 -8.2 -19.0 -1.0 -3.5 -.2 -2.0 -3.0 -2.7 -13.7 -28.5 -40.5 -15.5 -7.8 -.7 -6.7 -37.3 -50.0 -24.4 -10.8 -17.0 -5.8 1.0 3.5 -.2 -4.1 -6.8 -2.1 -2.2 -2.7 -1.7 -8.1 -12.6 -4.7 -23.4 -40.0 -13.6 -43.7 -61.4 -28.1 -8.1 -3.9 -8.9 -11.3 -8.7 -10.6 -3.6 -1.7 -6.4 -5.3 -5.5 -3.4 -8.3 -4.0 -11.1 -4.1 -8.7 -11.3 -17.6 -8.1 -19.6 -26.3 -16.6 -23.7 -.3 -.5 .6 -1.1 .1 -.5 -3.7 -.4 -9.0 -2.4 -3.0 -5.4 .0 -.4 -2.9 -1.5 -.1 1.4 -1.9 -.9 3.3 -4.0 -2.1 -3.8 -2.7 -2.1 4.3 -4.1 -3.2 -4.9 -1.5 -.7 -3.1 -3.4 -1.6 -1.5 -11.5 -5.9 -8.9 -17.0 -12.3 -16.0 1.2 1.1 1.5 -6.4 -8.4 -11.7 -4.4 -5.5 -8.8 -9.2 -9.1 -7.6 -11.0 -16.4 -25.9 -1.3 -1.1 -1.6 -4.2 -3.9 -3.6 1.8 .8 -2.4 -1.0 -2.0 -1.8 -2.2 -2.7 -2.7 -1.8 -2.5 -5.0 -9.9 -12.9 -18.1 2.1 1.7 2.8 2.4 2.6 4.8 -5.2 -7.0 -8.8 -2.0 -2.3 -2.1 -8.9 -8.7 -6.9 -10.8 -16.1 -25.3 -.9 -.4 -.2 -4.3 -4.1 -3.8 1.9 .9 -2.2 -1.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.1 -2.6 -2.4 -1.0 -1.4 -2.5 -8.3 -10.8 -13.6 91.71 69.12 1.4 .6 1.4 1.3 -5.5 -7.4 -3.0 -3.7 -9.2 -9.1 -9.6 -14.9 -.9 -.4 -4.5 -4.2 2.1 1.1 -.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.4 -.9 -1.4 -8.2 -10.8 10.97 17.53 2.8 .3 5.1 2.4 -9.4 -11.5 -1.8 -3.8 -4.6 -13.2 -28.5 -24.2 -1.0 -.9 -1.5 -6.9 -2.1 2.6 -4.4 -4.0 -5.8 -5.0 -5.3 -1.3 -18.9 -16.6 r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 3 M OTOR V EHICLE A SSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2008 average 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2009 Jan. Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 8.67 3.78 4.90 4.67 .22 9.92 3.93 5.99 5.75 .24 8.78 3.65 5.13 4.89 .24 8.75 4.21 4.54 4.33 .21 7.40 3.37 4.03 3.82 .21 8.20 4.07 4.13 3.92 .21 8.41 3.99 4.42 4.22 .20 8.02 3.84 4.19 3.98 .21 7.56 3.42 4.15 3.95 .20 6.61 2.86 3.75 3.54 .21 3.90 1.26 2.64 2.43 .21 Memo Autos and light trucks 8.45 9.68 8.54 8.55 7.19 7.99 8.21 7.82 7.37 6.40 3.69 Item Jan. ’08 to Jan. ’09 r r NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 9 Table 4 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY 2002 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2008 proportion 2008 May June July Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 2009 Jan.p 100.00 111.2 111.3 111.2 109.8 105.3 107.0 105.7 103.2 101.3 55.60 29.47 5.91 2.75 .30 .91 1.94 23.56 16.20 8.96 .50 4.75 1.51 7.36 110.5 105.8 94.9 87.9 179.9 86.3 100.9 109.1 109.2 109.9 73.7 118.7 95.2 109.4 110.7 106.2 96.7 92.3 174.2 85.4 100.8 109.1 109.0 109.2 75.0 119.0 95.8 109.8 110.5 106.1 97.2 93.1 180.6 84.9 100.8 108.8 108.6 108.6 75.6 119.1 94.5 109.6 109.0 103.8 91.4 83.6 175.6 81.6 99.6 107.6 108.3 108.2 76.0 118.6 94.7 106.3 106.1 102.4 90.5 84.8 170.5 78.1 97.0 106.1 108.6 108.8 74.9 119.1 93.6 100.6 106.7 104.3 88.0 81.5 168.4 76.9 95.2 109.3 108.5 109.2 73.1 118.6 92.5 111.5 105.8 103.4 85.3 79.9 163.9 72.7 92.0 108.9 108.1 109.3 70.3 117.6 92.3 110.9 104.1 101.3 80.8 73.9 157.1 71.3 88.2 107.5 106.1 107.1 69.3 115.7 90.8 110.9 102.1 99.5 72.3 58.6 155.1 69.7 86.3 107.6 105.7 107.5 67.0 114.5 89.3 112.2 8.92 1.46 2.64 4.82 1.76 130.4 118.6 172.8 114.0 119.0 130.4 120.1 172.6 113.5 120.3 129.8 119.9 169.9 113.6 118.5 129.3 115.3 168.0 115.0 118.6 119.7 75.7 165.8 112.5 116.5 116.3 67.4 163.7 110.2 118.0 118.7 88.1 161.2 108.6 117.5 121.6 114.3 158.3 106.1 116.9 117.1 101.0 158.4 102.9 118.6 3.99 10.60 101.7 107.9 101.3 107.5 102.0 107.5 100.9 106.5 98.5 103.8 97.0 104.4 93.1 103.0 89.3 100.2 86.3 100.0 44.40 28.50 16.81 2.55 5.81 8.46 11.68 .46 2.15 5.81 15.90 112.2 115.4 125.0 85.7 181.6 108.4 101.2 69.2 97.8 109.1 104.2 112.1 115.4 125.4 86.4 182.4 108.4 100.8 67.4 95.1 108.9 104.1 112.2 115.0 125.6 86.6 182.9 108.4 99.8 67.8 94.5 107.9 104.9 110.8 114.0 124.3 81.4 184.0 107.8 99.1 69.1 94.6 106.0 103.1 104.3 108.5 121.7 80.7 181.4 104.7 90.3 66.7 92.5 89.1 94.9 107.4 109.3 118.6 77.6 177.9 101.9 95.6 66.0 91.7 101.4 101.8 105.6 104.7 113.4 74.6 170.1 97.3 91.9 62.6 87.2 95.9 104.6 102.1 99.2 106.9 68.9 161.6 91.8 87.6 58.4 82.1 90.9 104.5 100.4 96.4 102.0 58.7 156.7 89.3 87.3 57.8 80.9 90.8 104.5 321 327 331 332 333 334 77.41 73.98 36.43 .99 2.16 2.67 5.50 4.64 6.54 112.3 113.7 120.6 89.6 105.0 109.5 111.5 112.3 209.5 112.1 113.5 120.9 89.0 103.8 109.9 110.1 112.1 209.7 111.9 113.4 121.0 88.1 105.1 112.0 109.7 110.9 209.9 110.7 112.2 119.3 87.3 103.6 110.5 109.8 112.8 208.8 106.5 107.8 115.4 83.4 101.3 104.2 108.5 109.1 206.2 107.2 108.5 112.5 79.0 101.6 95.9 106.5 107.1 202.2 104.8 106.1 109.9 76.8 96.7 84.7 105.3 104.8 193.8 101.8 102.9 106.5 71.3 93.8 75.2 101.5 100.9 186.4 99.2 100.3 101.4 68.4 91.0 73.5 97.3 96.7 183.2 335 3361–3 1.95 4.28 106.6 83.4 106.7 86.9 106.4 88.9 105.2 79.3 102.5 80.1 102.1 76.8 100.6 75.1 97.1 69.0 95.2 52.9 3364–9 337 339 3.40 1.25 3.06 124.0 94.4 116.6 125.6 93.7 116.1 123.5 92.8 116.6 123.4 89.4 118.5 102.9 87.7 116.6 100.2 84.9 115.7 108.7 81.1 114.2 122.0 79.9 111.8 119.3 78.2 112.1 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 37.56 10.89 .83 .53 2.47 1.73 6.54 11.63 2.92 106.2 110.4 73.4 74.5 96.4 97.0 110.9 113.4 101.5 105.5 109.9 72.4 75.9 94.6 94.2 110.0 112.7 102.4 105.1 109.2 72.5 76.6 93.8 92.6 110.3 112.2 102.7 104.4 108.8 72.9 76.8 94.5 93.9 108.6 111.2 100.9 99.6 109.1 71.0 75.8 91.3 93.0 96.7 103.0 98.5 103.5 109.7 70.3 73.8 89.5 92.7 111.5 108.9 96.3 101.2 109.7 67.8 70.8 85.2 91.3 108.1 105.4 93.8 98.3 107.3 64.5 69.9 80.6 88.0 107.1 101.5 90.1 97.8 108.0 63.7 67.7 79.7 85.1 106.8 101.1 86.9 1133,5111 3.43 88.5 88.4 87.2 86.5 85.7 84.7 84.2 82.9 81.7 21 2211,2 2211 2212 12.92 9.67 7.88 1.78 104.1 108.0 109.2 102.0 104.2 110.0 112.3 99.4 105.8 108.9 111.3 98.1 105.2 103.9 105.7 95.4 94.9 105.5 107.9 94.6 102.4 107.4 108.6 101.5 104.9 109.5 110.8 103.2 103.8 109.3 110.6 102.8 102.5 112.3 113.1 108.0 Item Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Refer to notes on table 1. 10 Table 5 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : S PECIAL AGGREGATES 2002 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2008 proportion 2008 May June July Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 2009 Jan.p 100.00 111.2 111.3 111.2 109.8 105.3 107.0 105.7 103.2 101.3 27.23 7.36 3.16 .80 4.29 11.61 107.9 109.4 115.3 177.3 108.5 102.2 108.1 109.8 116.7 179.9 106.5 102.8 108.7 109.6 117.9 179.2 105.4 104.2 106.4 106.3 114.0 183.3 101.7 103.0 99.8 100.6 112.0 189.6 99.8 92.7 107.1 111.5 114.8 187.5 104.4 100.4 108.7 110.9 116.1 181.9 105.1 103.9 108.3 110.9 114.7 171.9 105.1 103.8 108.7 112.2 118.6 154.0 106.3 103.3 72.77 111.9 111.9 111.6 110.5 106.8 106.4 104.1 100.7 98.0 3341 3342 4.00 .89 1.29 269.7 216.7 203.6 269.4 211.1 204.4 270.5 207.6 200.6 268.4 202.4 197.6 265.0 194.7 198.1 257.3 185.9 198.4 241.7 176.3 198.7 226.8 165.5 196.3 219.5 159.5 199.2 334412–9 1.82 342.0 344.6 354.7 356.4 352.5 337.7 301.2 270.8 251.6 68.77 105.0 105.1 104.7 103.7 100.1 99.8 97.9 94.9 92.4 4.28 1.81 2.21 83.4 78.6 87.4 86.9 85.6 88.2 88.9 89.3 89.8 79.3 74.2 84.6 80.1 76.8 84.4 76.8 71.6 82.6 75.1 69.6 81.2 69.0 60.9 77.4 52.9 36.5 66.9 64.49 19.46 7.09 3.94 7.18 25.06 106.9 106.8 119.1 100.9 100.4 106.4 106.6 106.5 119.1 100.4 99.3 106.2 106.1 106.1 118.6 101.1 98.7 105.5 105.8 105.6 119.4 100.0 98.8 105.0 101.8 105.2 108.6 97.6 95.9 99.3 101.8 104.8 105.5 96.1 95.8 100.7 99.9 103.8 109.0 92.2 93.8 96.8 97.2 101.7 113.7 88.4 90.8 92.1 95.7 101.0 110.2 85.3 89.3 90.7 96.00 73.41 32.58 105.9 105.6 107.0 105.9 105.4 107.4 105.9 105.2 107.5 104.4 104.1 105.8 100.0 100.0 102.1 101.9 100.8 99.6 100.9 98.8 97.8 98.6 96.1 95.2 96.9 93.7 90.4 95.72 73.12 32.30 113.0 114.7 127.7 112.8 114.2 127.4 112.7 113.8 127.2 111.7 113.3 127.0 106.9 108.7 122.1 108.9 109.7 119.4 107.7 107.3 116.6 105.4 104.5 113.8 104.3 103.0 110.9 91.71 69.12 107.3 107.5 107.1 107.0 106.9 106.6 106.0 106.1 101.3 101.6 103.4 102.8 102.5 100.8 100.5 98.3 99.6 97.0 10.97 17.53 127.6 106.8 127.3 107.0 127.4 106.4 126.1 105.5 124.2 98.2 121.6 100.8 116.2 96.7 109.5 91.9 103.7 90.7 Item Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 6 D IFFUSION I NDEXES OF I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Percent Item One month earlier 2006 2007 2008 Three months earlier 2006 2007 2008 Six months earlier 2006 2007 2008 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 60.9 42.9 48.1 43.3 56.4 45.5 52.6 58.3 53.5 57.4 62.2 42.6 49.0 49.7 53.4 52.9 57.4 51.4 56.1 55.6 49.4 48.4 45.5 41.3 44.6 53.8 27.7 42.0 44.6 37.0 42.3 57.1 30.1 59.0 50.0 17.8 58.3 46.2 48.4 50.6 52.9 42.6 56.4 51.0 46.8 51.9 62.5 45.2 55.1 59.6 52.9 51.3 61.9 45.2 52.6 59.6 48.4 52.6 56.7 41.7 49.4 55.8 28.2 41.7 43.6 27.9 37.5 52.9 23.4 45.2 51.9 20.5 56.4 38.8 46.5 54.2 43.6 43.9 58.0 45.5 47.1 57.7 57.4 44.2 52.9 58.7 44.6 52.2 56.4 44.9 49.0 65.4 44.9 53.8 57.7 43.9 49.0 61.2 29.2 44.2 51.6 28.2 44.9 53.5 24.0 47.1 54.8 16.0 NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 11 Table 7 C APACITY U TILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 2008 proportion 19722008 ave. 199495 high 200102 low 2008 Q2 Q3r Q4r 2008 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 2009 Jan.p 100.00 80.9 85.1 73.6 79.7 77.6 74.9 78.3 75.0 76.1 75.2 73.3 72.0 31–33 79.90 76.28 79.6 79.4 84.6 84.7 71.5 71.0 77.5 77.6 75.5 75.5 71.7 71.7 76.2 76.3 73.2 73.2 73.6 73.6 71.9 71.8 69.7 69.6 68.0 67.9 321 327 331 332 333 334 39.56 1.24 2.29 2.61 5.50 5.01 7.28 77.9 79.5 79.2 80.8 77.5 78.5 78.2 84.2 87.9 84.0 95.8 85.5 87.6 83.7 68.1 70.7 74.9 68.5 69.5 63.7 58.2 75.4 66.3 74.9 82.6 79.6 74.4 78.4 73.5 64.0 73.8 81.3 78.0 73.2 76.0 67.6 56.2 69.3 63.5 74.4 68.6 69.2 74.0 64.7 74.0 82.5 78.3 74.5 76.2 71.4 61.9 72.2 77.8 77.3 72.0 74.7 69.5 58.7 72.4 71.5 75.9 70.5 72.6 67.7 57.1 68.8 63.1 75.0 68.9 69.0 65.5 53.0 66.6 55.9 72.3 66.3 65.9 62.4 51.0 64.8 54.8 69.4 63.6 64.6 335 3361–3 1.87 5.43 83.2 77.0 93.1 89.0 72.0 69.7 83.4 64.1 81.7 62.7 77.5 55.7 82.1 60.1 79.8 60.7 79.4 58.1 78.0 56.8 75.2 52.2 73.8 40.2 3364–9 337 339 3.58 1.43 3.31 72.7 78.3 76.5 68.8 83.2 81.2 62.8 68.2 70.5 78.8 71.7 73.7 73.4 68.6 74.0 69.0 62.6 71.6 77.6 68.2 74.8 64.6 66.9 73.5 62.8 64.8 72.8 68.1 61.9 71.8 76.3 61.1 70.2 74.5 60.0 70.4 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 36.72 10.67 1.00 .59 2.43 1.91 5.24 11.97 2.91 81.5 81.5 81.6 78.2 87.4 83.2 86.0 78.2 83.5 85.4 84.0 91.8 87.5 92.4 86.5 90.5 81.2 91.8 74.8 75.7 68.9 60.2 78.5 72.6 83.8 69.4 74.6 80.1 80.8 66.0 72.1 82.2 73.7 90.6 77.3 81.3 77.8 79.7 65.7 73.7 80.8 71.1 86.3 74.2 80.1 76.2 79.4 62.0 69.6 73.9 69.0 89.3 71.5 73.9 78.8 79.5 66.4 74.1 82.0 71.7 89.0 75.8 80.2 75.2 79.7 64.8 73.4 79.2 70.9 79.3 70.1 78.2 78.1 80.0 64.4 71.7 77.7 70.7 91.4 74.1 76.4 76.3 80.0 62.2 68.9 74.0 69.5 88.7 71.6 74.3 74.1 78.2 59.4 68.2 70.0 66.9 87.9 68.9 71.2 73.8 78.7 58.9 66.4 69.4 64.8 87.7 68.7 68.8 1133,5111 3.62 84.3 83.0 80.3 76.2 74.3 72.1 74.3 73.6 72.7 72.3 71.2 70.2 21 2211,2 11.11 8.99 87.6 86.8 88.7 93.9 84.8 84.6 90.8 85.6 88.8 82.6 90.1 84.2 91.6 80.9 82.6 82.0 89.0 83.3 91.2 84.8 90.2 84.5 88.9 86.7 3341 3342 4.53 1.02 1.37 78.0 77.8 75.8 85.6 86.3 82.8 55.9 66.8 40.4 80.4 80.1 82.8 77.1 73.3 78.9 67.1 62.5 76.6 77.2 73.6 78.4 75.3 70.3 78.0 72.2 66.5 77.5 67.0 62.6 76.9 62.2 58.3 75.4 59.9 56.0 76.2 334412–9 2.14 80.7 92.2 57.4 79.5 78.2 63.9 78.6 76.5 72.2 63.4 56.1 51.9 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 95.47 75.37 81.1 79.7 85.0 84.5 74.8 72.8 79.7 77.4 77.6 75.4 75.2 72.0 78.4 76.1 75.0 73.1 76.3 73.6 75.5 72.1 73.8 70.1 72.6 68.4 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 15.43 46.72 37.85 86.7 82.1 77.6 89.5 88.2 80.4 81.9 74.6 69.9 89.2 79.8 76.0 86.3 77.4 74.5 85.8 74.0 71.7 89.4 77.7 74.7 79.7 75.2 73.1 86.2 76.2 72.2 86.6 74.2 71.9 84.7 71.6 70.9 83.9 70.4 69.3 Item Total industry 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. 12 Table 8 I NDUSTRIAL C APACITY Percent change Average annual rate 19721980198979 88 94 Item Total industry Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Monthly rate 2009 Jan. Annual rate 19952009 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 Q1 3.0 2.0 2.2 2.8 1.3 1.8 1.5 -.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 .2 -.1 Manufacturing 3.2 2.2 2.5 3.1 1.4 2.0 1.7 -.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 .1 -.1 Mining Utilities .8 4.2 .0 2.3 -.8 1.5 -.3 2.2 1.4 .8 1.7 1.2 .7 2.2 .8 1.7 .7 2.4 .6 2.2 .7 2.0 .8 1.7 .1 .1 19.7 17.4 15.6 23.5 10.3 21.4 17.6 7.2 18.0 16.1 15.5 9.6 .4 2.6 1.3 1.6 1.4 .8 .8 .8 -1.0 .8 .8 .8 -.4 -.1 1.7 3.0 3.8 .3 1.4 3.4 -.4 2.4 2.6 .0 3.2 3.0 .9 1.2 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.7 .5 1.9 1.8 .2 -.5 -.1 .5 2.0 1.8 .4 1.7 1.8 .5 1.5 1.7 .3 .1 .5 .0 -.1 .0 1 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing1 ex. selected high-technology industries S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 9 G ROSS VALUE OF F INAL P RODUCTS AND N ONINDUSTRIAL S UPPLIES Billions of 2000 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 2000 2008 2008 Q2 Q3r Q4r 2008 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 2009 Jan.p 2,813.4 2,962.0 3,002.8 2,936.9 2,871.3 2,951.6 2,850.0 2,906.9 2,877.4 2,829.4 2,767.6 2,114.3 1,476.4 471.7 278.6 193.0 1,004.8 2,260.1 1,568.3 440.5 258.8 181.7 1,109.0 2,287.9 1,580.2 449.9 261.9 187.8 1,113.7 2,234.8 1,546.0 440.7 257.8 182.8 1,089.0 2,200.4 1,541.2 396.8 228.9 167.8 1,113.8 2,243.7 1,544.2 429.5 245.9 183.4 1,095.0 2,166.5 1,506.7 427.6 250.1 177.4 1,062.7 2,219.1 1,565.7 413.5 239.0 174.4 1,124.7 2,204.0 1,544.5 401.3 233.6 167.6 1,113.8 2,178.2 1,513.3 375.6 214.0 161.5 1,102.8 2,117.7 1,477.5 321.4 162.9 158.0 1,106.0 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 637.9 621.5 561.2 60.3 701.8 683.7 605.9 78.0 720.8 702.8 624.8 78.7 700.6 681.2 603.8 77.6 662.7 644.2 565.4 77.4 714.7 695.9 618.6 78.0 667.9 646.8 569.1 76.7 651.8 631.2 551.3 77.7 662.5 643.8 564.9 77.4 673.9 657.7 580.0 77.1 646.1 632.8 552.3 78.1 Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 699.1 196.8 502.3 135.7 703.5 188.0 515.5 156.7 716.3 191.8 524.4 158.5 703.3 190.0 513.3 154.9 673.0 174.9 497.8 155.0 708.9 191.1 517.8 155.5 684.5 185.9 498.7 149.2 689.4 182.4 506.9 155.0 675.6 174.7 500.5 156.3 654.0 167.5 486.1 153.8 651.7 161.6 489.5 159.5 Item Final products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable r Revised. p Preliminary. Table 10 G ROSS -VALUE -W EIGHTED I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S TAGE - OF -P ROCESS G ROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Finished Semifinished Primary Crude 2008 gross value1 2006 2007 1937.0 1677.5 963.6 419.1 2.3 -1.6 -.6 7.6 1.4 2.4 2.0 2.3 Annual rate 2008 2008 Q2 -7.6 -7.3 -6.0 -6.7 -6.6 -3.2 -4.5 -2.3 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Billions of 2000 dollars. 13 Monthly rate Q3 r Q4 2008 Aug.r Sept. -6.1 -5.4 -17.2 -15.4 -15.8 -18.1 -5.0 -8.6 -2.1 -1.6 -1.6 -.5 -2.0 -1.1 -7.6 -11.9 r r Oct. r -1.5 -1.3 8.1 8.5 Nov. r -.1 -2.0 -3.4 -1.0 r 2009 Jan.p -1.7 -3.3 -2.8 -2.9 -4.1 -2.7 .0 -.3 Dec. Jan. ’08 to Jan. ’09 -12.4 -12.4 -10.4 -9.2 Table 11 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)1 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 -.3 .0 .2 -.5 -.5 1.3 .4 -.5 .9 -.7 .2 .3 .2 .5 -.5 .6 .6 .0 -.1 .2 .7 -.1 -.7 .2 1.0 .5 .2 .0 .3 1.0 .6 .2 -.9 -.1 .0 .7 .5 .9 .2 .1 .3 -.3 -.3 .2 .8 1.5 .6 -.1 -.7 -.2 .5 .2 .3 -1.2 -.2 .5 .4 .7 -.7 -.3 5.4 3.5 1.5 3.2 -7.5 7.2 3.5 -1.8 2.8 2.6 7.3 2.1 -2.5 1.4 5.5 10.2 3.2 1.8 -6.0 .7 5.2 5.2 .9 1.0 -1.6 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.6 .5 .4 .3 -.6 .7 .3 .0 .0 1.7 .8 .0 1.1 .1 -.2 .7 .3 .5 -.1 .7 .4 -.4 .6 .2 .6 .0 .2 .7 .3 .9 .8 .3 .2 -.4 -.1 -.5 .0 .5 1.3 .6 .2 .4 .2 .4 .5 .7 .7 .8 -.2 .0 .4 .4 .7 .3 .9 .0 .5 1.1 .5 .7 -.3 3.5 5.2 5.3 3.5 7.3 1.2 7.4 .9 7.7 2.9 2.1 5.2 3.8 5.1 3.9 6.0 8.2 3.3 5.6 2.8 3.3 5.3 4.8 4.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .1 .4 .5 .1 -.7 1.2 .0 .4 .4 -.6 .8 .0 .2 .4 -.3 .0 .5 .2 .6 -.3 .6 .6 .7 .2 -.7 .5 -.5 -.2 .1 -.6 .6 -.4 .6 -.2 -.5 1.4 2.1 .5 -.2 -.4 .9 -.3 -.4 .4 -.4 .7 .7 1.3 -.4 -.6 .9 -.1 .6 .0 -.5 .4 .3 .8 -.3 .0 8.0 4.1 4.3 4.9 -5.5 6.3 3.1 3.8 5.0 -5.2 9.7 2.9 4.0 -.3 -5.9 10.7 5.2 8.0 -1.3 -5.2 7.3 5.9 4.3 4.2 -3.4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .5 .6 .3 .5 .1 .1 .4 .5 .6 -.1 .7 -.2 -.5 .0 .2 .4 -.8 .5 -.1 .4 .5 .0 .7 .3 -.1 1.0 .2 -.8 .4 .5 -.3 .4 .7 .0 .3 .1 -.1 .3 .2 .1 .0 .5 -.1 -1.8 -.4 -.3 .1 1.0 1.2 -.1 .4 .8 .3 1.1 -.2 -.5 -.1 .6 .5 .6 2.3 2.7 2.6 5.4 3.2 6.3 -2.9 2.0 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.0 -.4 1.9 -.5 3.7 5.8 3.7 -.9 -.1 1.2 2.5 3.3 2.2 2007 2008 2009 -.4 .2 -1.8 .7 -.3 -.1 -.2 .5 -.5 .0 -.2 .3 .1 .6 .0 .0 -1.3 .3 -4.1 -.4 1.6 .4 -1.2 .1 -2.4 1.5 .4 3.2 -3.4 3.6 -8.9 .3 -12.1 1.7 -1.8 IP (2002=100) 2007 2008 2009 109.8 112.6 101.3 110.5 112.3 110.4 112.0 111.0 111.4 111.0 111.2 111.4 111.3 112.0 111.2 112.0 109.8 112.3 105.3 111.8 107.0 112.3 105.7 112.4 103.2 110.2 112.3 111.1 111.3 112.1 108.8 112.2 105.3 111.4 109.4 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2007 2008 2009 136.4 139.0 140.7 136.6 139.1 136.8 139.3 137.0 139.5 137.2 139.7 137.4 139.9 137.6 140.0 137.9 140.2 138.1 140.3 138.3 140.5 138.5 140.6 138.7 140.8 136.6 139.1 137.2 139.7 137.9 140.2 138.5 140.6 137.5 139.9 Utilization (percent) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 79.0 83.3 85.0 82.5 79.8 79.9 83.5 84.5 83.0 79.1 79.9 83.7 84.6 83.2 78.6 80.2 84.1 84.4 82.9 78.6 80.6 83.9 83.7 82.9 79.3 80.8 84.1 83.6 83.0 80.0 81.2 84.2 82.6 82.7 79.9 81.6 84.5 83.2 82.8 79.9 81.7 84.2 82.8 82.8 80.5 82.8 84.6 82.6 82.1 80.2 83.1 84.6 82.6 80.9 80.0 83.4 84.9 83.1 80.3 79.6 79.6 83.5 84.7 82.9 79.2 80.5 84.0 83.9 83.0 79.3 81.5 84.3 82.9 82.8 80.1 83.1 84.7 82.8 81.1 79.9 81.2 84.1 83.6 82.4 79.6 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 79.0 81.1 82.5 85.0 82.6 79.5 81.2 82.3 84.7 83.6 80.0 81.1 83.0 84.5 83.1 80.4 81.3 83.2 84.1 83.3 80.5 80.9 83.4 84.0 83.4 80.4 81.1 83.7 83.9 83.7 80.9 81.2 83.7 83.3 83.2 80.3 81.1 83.8 84.1 83.4 80.4 81.4 83.7 84.1 83.4 80.8 81.8 84.2 83.6 83.0 80.9 82.0 84.4 83.5 83.4 80.8 82.3 85.1 83.5 83.5 79.5 81.2 82.6 84.7 83.1 80.5 81.1 83.4 84.0 83.5 80.5 81.2 83.7 83.8 83.3 80.9 82.1 84.5 83.5 83.3 80.3 81.4 83.6 84.0 83.3 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 83.2 84.4 82.0 82.4 79.4 83.8 83.9 82.0 82.4 78.7 84.0 83.4 81.8 82.4 78.2 83.6 83.3 81.7 82.6 77.8 83.7 83.3 82.0 82.5 77.1 83.6 82.4 81.6 82.4 76.4 83.6 81.6 81.8 81.9 75.9 84.2 82.9 81.9 81.5 75.4 84.5 82.3 81.3 81.6 74.9 84.6 82.5 82.0 81.0 74.3 84.8 82.0 82.2 80.7 73.8 84.6 82.0 82.6 80.2 73.6 83.7 83.9 82.0 82.4 78.8 83.6 83.0 81.8 82.5 77.1 84.1 82.3 81.6 81.6 75.4 84.7 82.2 82.3 80.6 73.9 84.0 82.8 81.9 81.8 76.3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 73.8 75.6 77.2 79.8 80.9 73.8 75.9 77.6 80.2 80.7 74.2 75.9 77.1 80.1 80.8 74.4 75.3 77.5 80.0 81.1 74.7 75.4 78.0 80.2 80.9 75.4 75.6 77.4 80.5 81.2 75.1 75.9 77.9 80.4 81.3 75.2 75.9 78.1 80.5 81.3 75.2 76.3 78.0 79.0 80.9 75.0 76.4 78.7 79.8 80.8 75.4 77.0 79.0 80.6 80.5 75.1 77.0 79.4 80.9 80.9 73.9 75.8 77.3 80.0 80.8 74.8 75.4 77.6 80.3 81.0 75.2 76.1 78.0 80.0 81.2 75.2 76.8 79.1 80.4 80.7 74.8 76.0 78.0 80.2 80.9 2007 2008 2009 80.5 81.0 72.0 80.9 80.7 80.7 80.4 81.0 79.9 80.9 79.6 81.0 79.6 81.4 79.4 81.2 78.3 81.3 75.0 80.9 76.1 81.1 75.2 81.0 73.3 80.7 80.7 81.0 79.7 81.3 77.6 81.0 74.9 81.0 78.2 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 14 Table 12 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)2 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 -.3 -.2 .7 -.1 -.8 1.4 .2 -1.0 1.4 -.6 .1 .3 -.1 .4 -.7 .5 .9 .1 -.3 .3 .8 -.1 -.8 .1 .7 .4 .1 .1 .2 1.1 .7 .1 -1.1 -.2 .2 .5 .1 .9 .3 .3 .6 .3 -.2 .0 1.0 1.6 .6 -.2 -.8 -.2 .6 .3 .2 -1.1 -.3 .6 .4 .2 -.7 -.1 6.0 2.5 1.7 4.7 -8.8 6.9 4.5 -3.2 2.6 2.1 7.1 1.4 -3.0 .7 7.1 11.7 4.9 .6 -6.6 1.4 5.7 5.4 .8 .8 -2.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.6 1.0 .2 .3 -.7 .9 .2 .1 -.1 1.7 1.0 -.1 1.3 .2 -.3 .6 .6 .8 -.2 1.0 .6 -.1 .7 .0 .6 .3 -.1 .3 .4 1.1 .8 .3 .5 -.6 .3 -.5 -.1 .7 1.2 .6 .1 .6 .3 .8 .6 .6 .8 1.0 -.2 -.1 .4 .4 .8 .1 .8 -.2 .5 1.2 .5 .9 .7 4.3 5.0 5.6 2.8 8.3 1.8 9.4 .3 8.7 3.9 1.3 6.1 3.1 7.5 2.7 6.7 9.9 4.1 5.9 3.6 3.5 5.9 5.2 4.8 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .1 .7 .3 .2 -.6 1.4 .0 .7 .3 -.6 1.2 -.2 -.1 .7 -.3 -.2 .7 .4 .6 -.2 .9 .5 .9 -.1 -.7 .7 -.7 -.3 .2 -.7 .5 -.5 .5 .0 -.4 1.7 2.5 .7 -.5 -.7 .9 -.3 -.4 .4 -.4 .7 .9 1.6 -.4 -.7 1.1 .2 .8 -.3 -.3 .5 .5 .7 -.6 .2 9.6 5.7 4.8 5.4 -6.3 7.5 2.6 4.2 4.8 -5.4 10.9 3.1 3.7 -.4 -6.4 11.6 7.5 9.6 -2.9 -5.1 8.5 6.7 5.0 4.5 -4.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .4 .5 .0 .7 .7 .1 .2 .6 .7 -.4 .7 .3 -.1 -.3 .0 .1 -1.0 .5 .0 .5 .7 .1 .7 .6 -.3 1.1 .6 -.7 .2 .4 -.4 .2 .8 .0 .1 .3 -.3 .7 .3 .3 .0 .7 -.2 -1.0 -.2 -.5 .1 1.0 1.5 -.5 .4 1.0 .1 .8 -.1 -.5 -.2 .5 -.1 1.0 2.8 2.0 2.1 5.8 2.7 5.7 -1.9 3.3 2.2 1.4 3.1 2.6 3.9 1.0 1.6 -1.1 4.1 5.4 6.0 -1.1 -.1 1.3 2.9 4.0 2.4 2007 2008 2009 -.6 .0 -2.5 .1 -.6 .7 .1 .4 -.9 .2 .0 .5 -.2 .8 -.2 -.4 -1.1 .4 -3.8 -.4 .6 .2 -2.2 .0 -2.9 1.1 -1.0 4.7 -4.1 4.0 -8.7 -.6 -17.4 1.7 -2.6 IP (2002=100) 2007 2008 2009 111.1 113.8 99.2 111.3 113.1 112.0 113.3 112.4 112.3 112.6 112.3 113.2 112.1 114.1 111.9 113.6 110.7 114.0 106.5 113.5 107.2 113.8 104.8 113.8 101.8 111.5 113.4 112.8 112.2 113.9 109.7 113.7 104.6 112.9 110.0 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2007 2008 2009 141.0 143.9 145.9 141.2 144.1 141.4 144.4 141.7 144.6 141.9 144.8 142.1 145.0 142.4 145.2 142.7 145.3 142.9 145.5 143.2 145.7 143.4 145.9 143.7 146.1 141.2 144.1 141.9 144.8 142.7 145.3 143.4 145.9 142.3 145.0 Utilization (percent) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 78.9 83.0 85.4 81.6 78.4 79.9 83.1 84.5 82.5 77.8 79.7 83.3 84.2 82.6 77.1 80.0 83.9 84.1 82.3 77.3 80.4 83.8 83.2 82.2 77.7 80.5 83.8 83.2 82.2 78.5 80.8 83.9 82.1 81.9 78.5 81.1 83.9 82.6 81.9 78.6 81.4 84.1 82.2 81.8 79.3 82.5 84.5 81.9 81.0 79.1 82.9 84.7 81.9 79.9 78.7 83.3 84.9 81.8 79.2 78.6 79.5 83.1 84.7 82.2 77.8 80.3 83.8 83.5 82.2 77.8 81.1 84.0 82.3 81.9 78.8 82.9 84.7 81.9 80.0 78.8 80.9 83.9 83.1 81.6 78.3 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 78.0 80.3 81.2 84.5 81.4 78.5 80.3 81.1 84.1 82.3 79.1 80.0 82.0 83.9 81.6 79.4 80.4 82.4 83.5 82.0 79.7 80.2 82.7 83.2 82.0 79.8 80.0 82.7 83.1 82.5 80.2 80.1 82.8 82.3 82.3 79.7 79.9 83.1 82.9 82.3 79.5 80.3 83.1 83.2 82.4 79.8 80.8 83.6 82.7 81.9 79.9 81.0 83.9 82.4 82.2 79.6 81.2 84.6 82.4 82.4 78.5 80.2 81.4 84.2 81.8 79.6 80.2 82.6 83.3 82.2 79.8 80.1 83.0 82.8 82.3 79.8 81.0 84.0 82.5 82.2 79.4 80.4 82.8 83.2 82.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 82.0 83.7 80.9 81.1 77.0 82.7 83.1 81.1 81.0 76.4 83.2 82.4 80.7 81.2 75.9 82.5 82.3 80.6 81.3 75.5 82.7 82.2 81.0 80.9 74.7 82.8 81.1 80.4 80.8 74.0 82.6 80.2 80.4 80.4 73.6 83.4 81.7 80.6 79.7 72.9 83.6 81.0 80.0 79.7 72.5 83.5 81.3 80.9 79.1 71.9 83.9 81.0 81.1 78.5 71.5 83.7 81.1 81.3 77.8 71.6 82.7 83.1 80.9 81.1 76.4 82.7 81.9 80.7 81.0 74.7 83.2 81.0 80.3 79.9 73.0 83.7 81.1 81.1 78.5 71.7 83.1 81.8 80.7 80.1 73.9 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 71.8 73.4 75.0 78.1 79.7 71.8 73.6 75.5 78.6 79.3 72.2 73.8 75.4 78.3 79.2 72.2 73.2 75.8 78.3 79.6 72.7 73.3 76.3 78.6 79.3 73.5 73.8 75.7 78.7 79.5 73.1 73.9 76.3 78.6 79.5 73.4 73.8 76.8 78.7 79.7 73.4 74.3 76.6 77.8 79.4 73.1 74.4 77.3 78.9 78.9 73.4 75.1 77.4 79.4 78.7 73.0 75.0 77.7 79.3 79.4 71.9 73.6 75.3 78.4 79.4 72.8 73.4 75.9 78.5 79.4 73.3 74.0 76.6 78.4 79.5 73.2 74.8 77.5 79.2 79.0 72.8 74.0 76.3 78.6 79.4 2007 2008 2009 78.8 79.1 68.0 78.8 78.5 79.2 78.5 79.4 77.7 79.4 77.6 79.6 77.3 80.1 77.1 79.6 76.2 79.8 73.2 79.3 73.6 79.3 71.9 79.2 69.7 78.9 78.7 79.5 77.5 79.8 75.5 79.3 71.7 79.4 75.9 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 15 Table 13 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, High-Technology Industries1 AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Excluding Selected Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual -.5 .0 .3 -.7 -.5 1.2 .4 -.5 .9 -.8 .2 .2 .3 .4 -.6 .5 .5 -.1 -.2 .2 .6 -.2 -.7 .1 .9 .4 .2 .0 .2 1.0 .5 .1 -1.1 -.2 .0 .6 .5 .9 .2 .1 .2 -.4 -.3 .1 .9 1.4 .5 -.2 -.8 -.2 .5 .2 .2 -1.3 -.2 .4 .4 .7 -.7 -.5 4.4 3.0 1.8 2.4 -8.0 6.4 2.8 -2.0 2.2 2.1 6.0 1.4 -3.3 1.0 5.4 9.2 2.9 1.0 -6.6 .3 4.3 4.4 .6 .3 -2.0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.8 .5 .4 .2 -1.0 .7 .3 -.1 -.2 1.4 .8 -.1 .9 -.2 -.4 .6 .3 .3 -.3 .7 .3 -.4 .4 .1 .5 -.1 .2 .6 .1 .7 .8 .3 .1 -.5 -.5 -.6 -.1 .3 1.1 .4 .1 .3 .0 .1 .4 .6 .6 .6 -.5 -.3 .3 .3 .4 .1 .8 .0 .5 .9 .2 .5 -1.8 3.0 4.3 3.1 -.2 6.2 .5 5.5 -1.4 6.1 1.7 1.5 3.3 1.4 2.2 2.8 5.1 5.5 .3 3.3 1.9 2.5 4.0 2.5 1.7 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 -.1 .2 .2 -.3 -.7 .9 -.1 .1 .0 -.5 .5 -.1 -.1 .1 -.3 -.4 .3 -.1 .4 -.1 .3 .5 .6 -.1 -.6 .2 -.9 -.5 .0 -.5 .3 -.8 .3 -.5 -.3 1.0 2.0 .4 -.4 -.3 .7 -.6 -.5 .4 -.5 .7 .5 1.2 -.5 -.6 .7 -.3 .3 -.2 -.5 .2 .0 .6 -.5 -.1 5.0 1.6 .8 .7 -6.2 2.2 1.0 .4 1.7 -4.3 6.0 -.4 1.0 -2.8 -4.6 8.2 2.1 5.6 -2.8 -5.3 4.2 3.1 1.2 1.1 -4.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .7 .6 .2 .4 .0 .0 .2 .5 .5 -.2 .7 -.3 -.6 -.1 .2 .3 -1.0 .6 -.1 .3 .4 -.1 .7 .3 -.2 .9 .1 -.9 .4 .4 -.3 .3 .7 -.2 .2 .0 -.1 .2 .0 .0 .0 .5 -.2 -2.1 -.5 -.3 .0 1.0 1.1 -.1 .3 .7 .3 1.0 -.2 -.6 -.1 .6 .5 .6 2.7 1.3 1.7 4.8 2.6 5.8 -4.4 2.1 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 -1.8 1.1 -1.1 3.0 5.4 2.2 -1.7 .0 .2 1.8 2.7 1.3 2007 2008 2009 -.4 .2 -1.8 .7 -.4 -.2 -.4 .4 -.6 -.1 -.2 .2 .1 .4 -.1 -.1 -1.3 .2 -4.2 -.6 1.8 .4 -1.0 .0 -2.2 1.4 -.4 2.2 -4.4 2.2 -9.2 -1.0 -11.0 .9 -2.6 IP (2002=100) 2007 2008 2009 106.0 107.6 96.9 106.7 107.2 106.5 106.8 106.9 106.1 106.9 105.9 107.1 105.9 107.5 105.9 107.4 104.4 107.6 100.0 107.0 101.9 107.4 100.9 107.4 98.6 106.4 107.2 107.0 106.0 107.5 103.4 107.3 100.5 107.0 104.2 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2007 2008 2009 131.5 132.7 133.5 131.5 132.8 131.6 132.8 131.7 132.9 131.8 133.0 131.9 133.1 132.0 133.2 132.1 133.3 132.2 133.4 132.3 133.5 132.4 133.5 132.5 133.6 131.5 132.7 131.8 133.0 132.1 133.3 132.4 133.5 132.0 133.2 Utilization (percent) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 79.2 83.6 85.3 82.7 80.0 80.1 83.9 84.8 83.3 79.3 80.1 84.0 85.0 83.5 78.7 80.4 84.4 84.8 83.2 78.8 80.8 84.2 84.1 83.2 79.4 81.1 84.3 84.0 83.3 80.1 81.4 84.4 83.0 83.0 80.0 81.8 84.7 83.6 83.1 80.0 81.9 84.4 83.2 83.1 80.6 83.0 84.7 82.9 82.4 80.3 83.3 84.9 82.9 81.2 80.1 83.6 85.2 83.4 80.5 79.6 79.8 83.8 85.1 83.2 79.3 80.8 84.3 84.3 83.2 79.5 81.7 84.5 83.2 83.1 80.2 83.3 84.9 83.1 81.4 80.0 81.4 84.4 83.9 82.7 79.8 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 78.9 81.2 82.6 85.0 82.3 79.4 81.4 82.5 84.7 83.3 79.9 81.3 83.1 84.4 82.8 80.4 81.5 83.3 84.1 83.3 80.5 81.1 83.5 83.9 83.5 80.3 81.1 83.9 83.9 83.9 80.9 81.3 83.8 83.3 83.4 80.3 81.2 83.9 84.1 83.5 80.4 81.4 83.8 84.0 83.6 80.8 81.9 84.2 83.4 83.2 81.0 82.1 84.4 83.3 83.6 80.9 82.4 85.0 83.3 83.8 79.4 81.3 82.7 84.7 82.8 80.4 81.2 83.5 84.0 83.6 80.5 81.3 83.8 83.8 83.5 80.9 82.1 84.5 83.4 83.6 80.3 81.5 83.7 84.0 83.4 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 83.5 84.5 82.1 81.9 79.1 84.0 84.1 82.1 81.8 78.5 84.2 83.7 81.8 81.8 78.2 83.6 83.7 81.5 82.0 78.0 83.6 83.9 81.9 81.8 77.5 83.5 82.9 81.3 81.7 77.0 83.4 82.0 81.4 81.2 76.7 84.0 83.4 81.6 80.8 76.4 84.3 82.6 81.0 81.0 75.9 84.5 82.8 81.8 80.4 75.4 84.8 82.3 82.0 80.2 75.0 84.6 82.2 82.3 79.7 74.8 83.9 84.1 82.0 81.8 78.6 83.5 83.5 81.6 81.8 77.5 83.9 82.7 81.3 81.0 76.3 84.6 82.4 82.0 80.1 75.1 84.0 83.2 81.7 81.2 76.9 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 75.3 77.0 77.7 80.4 81.2 75.2 77.2 78.1 80.8 81.0 75.7 77.1 77.6 80.8 81.1 76.0 76.4 78.0 80.6 81.3 76.3 76.4 78.6 80.9 81.0 76.9 76.5 77.9 81.2 81.3 76.7 76.8 78.5 81.0 81.4 76.7 76.7 78.6 81.0 81.4 76.8 77.1 78.5 79.3 80.9 76.6 77.1 79.3 80.1 80.8 76.9 77.7 79.6 80.9 80.5 76.5 77.6 80.1 81.2 80.9 75.4 77.1 77.8 80.6 81.1 76.4 76.4 78.2 80.9 81.2 76.7 76.8 78.6 80.4 81.2 76.7 77.4 79.7 80.7 80.7 76.3 77.0 78.5 80.7 81.1 2007 2008 2009 80.6 81.1 72.6 81.1 80.7 80.9 80.4 81.2 79.8 81.1 79.6 81.2 79.6 81.4 79.5 81.3 78.4 81.4 75.0 80.9 76.3 81.1 75.5 81.0 73.8 80.9 80.7 81.1 79.7 81.4 77.6 81.0 75.2 81.1 78.3 IP (percent change)2 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 16 Table 14 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual -.5 -.2 .8 -.2 -.8 1.4 .2 -1.0 1.4 -.8 .1 .2 -.1 .3 -.8 .4 .8 .0 -.3 .4 .7 -.2 -.8 .1 .6 .3 .0 .1 .2 1.1 .6 .0 -1.3 -.2 .3 .3 .1 .9 .3 .2 .5 .3 -.3 -.1 1.1 1.5 .5 -.3 -.9 -.2 .6 .3 .1 -1.2 -.4 .5 .4 .2 -.8 -.3 4.7 1.8 2.1 3.8 -9.6 5.9 3.6 -3.5 1.9 1.5 5.5 .5 -4.1 .2 7.1 10.5 4.5 -.5 -7.4 .9 4.6 4.4 .4 .0 -2.6 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -.8 1.1 .1 .2 -1.2 .9 .1 .0 -.3 1.4 .9 -.3 1.2 -.1 -.5 .4 .5 .6 -.4 1.0 .5 -.2 .5 -.2 .4 .1 -.2 .2 .2 .9 .8 .3 .3 -.8 -.1 -.5 -.2 .5 .9 .3 -.1 .5 .1 .6 .4 .5 .7 .7 -.5 -.4 .3 .3 .6 -.1 .7 -.3 .5 1.0 .1 .7 -1.1 3.9 3.9 3.1 -1.7 7.0 .9 7.2 -2.5 6.8 2.6 .5 3.8 .2 4.2 1.3 5.7 6.7 .6 3.1 2.6 2.5 4.4 2.5 1.5 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 -.2 .5 .0 -.3 -.6 1.0 -.2 .4 -.2 -.5 .9 -.3 -.4 .3 -.3 -.7 .4 .0 .4 -.1 .5 .4 .8 -.5 -.7 .4 -1.1 -.7 .1 -.5 .1 -.9 .0 -.4 -.1 1.3 2.4 .6 -.8 -.7 .6 -.7 -.5 .4 -.4 .6 .7 1.4 -.5 -.7 .9 -.1 .4 -.6 -.2 .2 .2 .4 -.9 .1 6.0 2.9 .8 .4 -7.3 2.6 .1 .3 .9 -4.4 6.6 -.8 .2 -3.5 -4.9 8.7 4.0 7.0 -4.9 -5.1 4.9 3.5 1.4 .8 -4.9 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .6 .4 -.2 .6 .7 .0 -.1 .6 .6 -.5 .7 .1 -.2 -.3 .0 .0 -1.1 .6 .0 .5 .6 .0 .7 .5 -.4 1.0 .4 -.8 .2 .3 -.5 .0 .9 -.1 .0 .3 -.4 .6 .1 .2 .0 .7 -.3 -1.3 -.3 -.5 -.1 1.0 1.5 -.6 .3 .9 .1 .7 -.2 -.7 -.3 .5 -.1 1.0 3.3 .4 1.1 5.0 1.9 5.0 -3.7 3.5 1.4 .3 2.3 1.2 3.7 -.7 .5 -1.9 3.2 4.9 4.3 -2.1 .0 .0 2.2 3.3 1.2 2007 2008 2009 -.6 .0 -2.5 .1 -.8 .6 -.1 .3 -1.0 .1 .0 .4 -.2 .5 -.2 -.5 -1.1 .3 -3.9 -.7 .8 .1 -2.0 .0 -2.7 .9 -2.1 3.5 -5.5 2.3 -9.1 -2.3 -16.4 .7 -3.7 IP (2002=100) 2007 2008 2009 106.4 107.6 93.7 106.5 106.8 107.2 106.7 107.5 105.6 107.5 105.6 107.9 105.4 108.5 105.2 108.0 104.1 108.3 100.0 107.5 100.8 107.7 98.8 107.6 96.1 106.7 107.1 107.6 105.6 108.3 103.1 107.6 98.6 107.6 103.6 Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 2007 2008 2009 135.0 136.1 136.9 135.1 136.2 135.1 136.3 135.2 136.4 135.3 136.5 135.4 136.6 135.5 136.7 135.6 136.7 135.7 136.8 135.8 136.9 135.9 137.0 136.0 137.1 135.1 136.2 135.3 136.5 135.6 136.7 135.9 137.0 135.5 136.6 Utilization (percent) 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 79.1 83.3 85.8 81.8 78.7 80.1 83.5 84.9 82.8 77.9 80.1 83.7 84.7 82.9 77.2 80.2 84.3 84.5 82.5 77.4 80.7 84.1 83.7 82.5 77.7 80.8 84.1 83.7 82.5 78.5 81.1 84.1 82.4 82.2 78.6 81.3 84.1 83.0 82.3 78.7 81.6 84.3 82.6 82.1 79.4 82.8 84.7 82.2 81.3 79.2 83.2 84.9 82.1 80.2 78.8 83.6 85.2 82.1 79.4 78.5 79.8 83.5 85.1 82.5 77.9 80.6 84.2 84.0 82.5 77.9 81.4 84.2 82.7 82.2 78.9 83.2 85.0 82.1 80.3 78.8 81.2 84.2 83.5 81.9 78.4 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 77.8 80.4 81.3 84.5 80.9 78.4 80.4 81.2 84.1 81.9 79.0 80.1 82.0 83.8 81.2 79.3 80.5 82.4 83.3 81.8 79.6 80.3 82.7 83.0 82.0 79.6 80.0 82.7 83.0 82.5 80.1 80.2 82.9 82.2 82.3 79.6 79.9 83.2 82.7 82.4 79.5 80.2 83.1 83.0 82.5 79.8 80.7 83.5 82.4 82.0 79.9 80.9 83.9 82.1 82.4 79.6 81.2 84.5 82.1 82.7 78.4 80.3 81.5 84.1 81.3 79.5 80.2 82.6 83.1 82.1 79.8 80.1 83.0 82.6 82.4 79.8 81.0 84.0 82.2 82.4 79.3 80.4 82.8 83.0 82.1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 82.3 83.6 81.0 80.4 76.4 82.9 83.2 81.1 80.2 75.9 83.3 82.6 80.5 80.3 75.6 82.4 82.6 80.3 80.4 75.5 82.5 82.7 80.7 79.9 74.9 82.5 81.5 80.0 79.8 74.4 82.3 80.5 79.8 79.4 74.3 83.0 82.1 80.1 78.7 73.8 83.2 81.3 79.5 78.8 73.5 83.3 81.6 80.5 78.3 72.9 83.7 81.3 80.7 77.7 72.8 83.6 81.2 80.9 77.0 72.8 82.8 83.1 80.9 80.3 76.0 82.5 82.3 80.3 80.1 74.9 82.8 81.3 79.8 79.0 73.9 83.5 81.3 80.7 77.7 72.8 82.9 82.0 80.4 79.3 74.4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 73.3 74.9 75.5 78.8 80.0 73.3 74.9 75.9 79.2 79.5 73.8 75.1 75.8 79.0 79.4 73.8 74.3 76.3 78.9 79.7 74.3 74.3 76.8 79.3 79.4 75.1 74.7 76.2 79.3 79.5 74.8 74.7 76.9 79.2 79.5 75.0 74.5 77.4 79.2 79.6 75.1 75.1 77.2 78.1 79.4 74.7 75.1 77.9 79.2 78.8 75.0 75.8 78.0 79.7 78.6 74.5 75.6 78.3 79.5 79.4 73.4 75.0 75.7 79.0 79.7 74.4 74.4 76.4 79.2 79.5 74.9 74.8 77.2 78.9 79.5 74.7 75.5 78.1 79.5 79.0 74.4 74.9 76.9 79.1 79.4 2007 2008 2009 78.8 79.1 68.4 78.9 78.4 79.3 78.3 79.5 77.5 79.5 77.4 79.7 77.2 80.1 77.0 79.6 76.1 79.8 73.1 79.2 73.6 79.2 72.1 79.2 70.1 79.0 78.6 79.6 77.4 79.8 75.4 79.2 72.0 79.4 75.8 IP (percent change)3 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 17 Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: E XPLANATORY N OTE The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that are published in a monthly supplement to the G.17, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. A Im A Im−1 s P P I p I p P m m−1 × P m m = Im−1 pm−1 Im−1 pm The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 8 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 8/10 percentage point (0.08 x 10% = 0.8%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/IPweightsSA.txt). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2002. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries-logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing-that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 312 individual series based on the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.htm). Changes in output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of the statistical tables, see below. Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and, beginning with the release of March 2008 data, subject to revision in each of the subsequent five months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 70 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about 84 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 98 percent in the third month, and 98 percent in the fourth month. Data availability by data type, based on the four-month reporting window used in 2007, is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2007) Month of estimate Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 29 42 56 56 Production-worker hours 42 42 42 42 IP data received 70 84 98 98 IP data estimated 30 16 2 2 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (29 percent out of total of 56 percent). Of the 29 percent, about two-thirds (19 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of the first month of a quarter. The incorporation of a six-month window is expected to allow an additional 3 percent to 4 percent of IP to reflect primary source data. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, 18 the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through January 2008; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least September 2007. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC (currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the SPC. Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.26 percent during the 1987–2006 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–2006 period. In most cases (about 85 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. C APACITY U TILIZATION Perspective. Over the 1972–2007 period, the average total industry utilization rate is 81.0 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate has been 79.7 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 87 detailed industries (69 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries. References. The annual revision published in March 2008 will be described in a Federal Reserve Bulletin article to be published in the summer of 2008. The annual revision published in December 2006 is described in an article published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 93, pp. A39–A58, www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/CapitalStockDocLatest.pdf. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 24 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries account for a bit less than 72 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/CapNotes.htm). Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005, Winter 2006, May 2007). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2008: January 16, February 15, March 17, April 16, May 15, June 17, July 16, August 15, September 15, October 16, November 17, and December 15. 2009: January 16, February 18, March 16, April 15, May 15, June 16, July 15, August 14, September 16, October 16, November 17, and December 15. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are 19
@FedFRASER