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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EST) February 15, 2019 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in January after rising 0.1 percent in December. In January, manufacturing production fell 0.9 percent, primarily as a result of a large drop in motor vehicle assemblies; factory output excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.2 percent. The indexes for mining and utilities (over) Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Summary Seasonally adjusted 2012=100 Percent change Industrial production 2018 Aug.r 2019 Jan.p 2018 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r Total index Previous estimates 108.8 108.8 109.0 108.9 109.3 109.1 110.0 109.6 Major market groups Final Products Consumer goods Business equipment Nonindustrial supplies Construction Materials 103.2 105.9 101.2 107.1 114.5 114.0 103.7 106.2 102.2 106.9 114.3 114.0 104.3 107.0 102.5 107.5 114.6 113.9 Major industry groups Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 104.9 104.9 126.5 105.4 105.2 105.1 127.6 104.1 105.0 105.0 127.9 107.5 110.1 109.9 109.4 .9 .8 .2 .1 .3 .2 .6 .4 .1 .3 -.6 3.8 104.6 107.3 102.8 107.5 115.3 115.1 104.3 106.3 103.8 108.0 117.6 115.4 103.4 105.6 102.2 107.8 117.1 114.9 .7 .4 1.6 .1 .4 1.2 .5 .3 1.0 -.2 -.2 .1 .6 .8 .2 .5 .3 -.1 .3 .2 .4 .0 .6 1.0 -.3 -.9 .9 .4 2.0 .3 -.9 -.7 -1.5 -.2 -.4 -.4 1.6 .0 3.8 1.9 5.3 6.3 105.3 105.0 129.3 109.9 106.1 106.2 131.2 102.4 105.2 .5 .5 2.2 1.1 .2 .2 .9 -1.3 -.1 -.2 .2 3.4 .3 .1 1.0 2.2 .8 1.1 1.5 -6.9 -.9 2.9 .1 .4 15.3 -5.6 131.3 102.8 2019 Jan.p Capacity growth Percent of capacity Average 19722018 198889 high 199091 low 199495 high 2009 low 2018 Jan. 2018 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r Total industry Previous estimates 79.8 85.2 78.8 85.0 66.7 77.0 78.5 78.5 78.5 78.4 78.6 78.4 78.9 78.6 Manufacturing (see note below) Previous estimates Mining Utilities 78.3 85.6 77.3 84.6 63.7 74.7 87.1 85.2 86.3 92.9 84.3 84.4 88.6 92.9 78.2 78.3 87.4 81.5 76.0 76.0 93.9 78.0 76.1 76.1 94.2 76.9 75.9 75.9 93.9 79.3 Stage-of-process groups Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.1 80.3 76.8 87.8 86.5 83.4 84.7 78.1 77.3 90.0 87.7 80.7 76.4 63.8 66.6 85.3 76.3 74.2 91.9 76.3 75.3 92.0 76.0 75.7 91.5 76.5 75.5 Capacity utilization Jan. ’18 to Jan. ’19 2019 Jan.p Jan. ’18 to Jan. ’19 78.8 78.7 78.2 2.2 76.0 75.8 94.4 80.9 76.5 76.5 95.3 75.2 75.8 1.4 94.8 75.4 6.2 2.0 92.0 77.2 75.4 92.6 76.2 76.1 92.1 75.9 75.0 4.5 1.5 1.3 r Revised. p Preliminary. Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information, respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS. 1 moved up 0.1 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. At 109.4 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.8 percent higher in January than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.6 percentage point in January to 78.2 percent, a rate that is 1.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average. Market Groups The large drop in the output of motor vehicles and parts contributed significantly to sizable decreases posted by consumer durable goods, transit equipment, and durable materials. Results were mixed among other market groups, with many recording little change. Gains of more than 1/2 percent were registered by consumer energy products and by industrial and other equipment, while losses of nearly 1/2 percent or more were registered by information processing equipment, by defense and space equipment, and by construction supplies. Industry Groups Manufacturing output decreased 0.9 percent in January to a level that was, nonetheless, 2.9 percent above a year earlier. The output of durable goods moved down 1.7 percent because of a sizable drop for motor vehicles. The index for motor vehicles and parts fell 8.8 percent, as vehicle assemblies fell from 12.3 million units at an annual rate in December (their highest monthly pace since June 2016) to 10.6 million units in January (their lowest reading since May 2018). Most other major durable goods industries also recorded decreases; only fabricated metal products and furniture posted gains. The output of nondurables was unchanged; its components posted mixed results, with only petroleum and coal products recording an increase of more than 1 percent and only apparel and leather recording a decrease of more than 1 percent. The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) rose 1/2 percent. Mining output edged up 0.1 percent in January; the index for mining was 15.3 percent above its level of a year earlier. The output of utilities increased 0.4 percent in January, with natural gas utilities rising 6 percent after falling 19 percent in December. Capacity utilization for manufacturing declined 0.7 percentage point in January to 75.8 percent, about 2 1/2 percentage points below its long-run average. The utilization rate for mining fell to 94.8 percent but remained well above its long-run average of 87.1 percent. The operating rate for utilities increased to 75.4 percent, a rate that is about 10 percentage points below its long-run average. Note: Preliminary Estimates of Industrial Capacity The data in this release include preliminary estimates of industrial capacity for 2019 (table 8). Measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, total industrial capacity is projected to rise 2.3 percent this year after increasing 2.0 percent in 2018. Manufacturing capacity is expected to advance 1.4 percent in 2019, about the same pace as in 2018. Capacity in the mining sector is estimated to rise about 7 percent in 2019 after increasing about 6 percent in 2018. Capacity at electric and natural gas utilities is projected to increase about 2 percent in 2019, the same as in 2018. 2 Tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change Motor Vehicle Assemblies Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Industrial Capacity Gross Value of Final Products and Nonindustrial Supplies Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups Historical Statistics: Total Industry Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries Industrial Production: Reliability Estimates Further detail is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/). Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization on March 27, 2019. The Economic Census for 2017 will not be available from the U.S. Census Bureau by early 2019, so no new annual benchmark data will be included for manufacturing. Other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels), will be incorporated. The updated IP indexes will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will affect the index from 1972 to the present. Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate data through the fourth quarter of 2018 from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations. 3 1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization 175 150 Ratio scale, 2012 output = 100 Total Manufacturing 175 150 125 125 Capacity 100 100 75 75 Production Production: 2015 to present 50 110 50 106 102 98 2016 25 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2018 2000 94 2005 2010 2015 2020 Percent of capacity 100 90 25 100 90 Utilization 80 80 70 70 60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 60 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 4 2. Industrial production and capacity utilization Consumer goods Ratio scale, 2012=100 Equipment 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 110 90 Business 90 100 Nondurable 90 Ratio scale, 2012=100 110 70 70 90 Durable Defense and Space 80 80 70 50 140 140 130 130 130 130 120 120 120 110 110 100 100 100 90 90 90 90 80 80 80 70 70 60 70 2000 2005 2010 Nonindustrial supplies 2015 Ratio scale, 2012=100 120 110 Construction 100 2000 2005 Industrial materials 2010 2015 50 Ratio scale, 2012=100 110 Non-energy Other business 70 2000 2005 2010 Capacity utilization 2015 Percent of capacity 90 85 80 70 90 80 2005 2010 2015 60 Percent of capacity 95 Crude processing 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 75 70 Excluding utilities 65 65 60 60 70 55 65 55 2000 Capacity utilization 85 75 70 95 90 Primary and semifinished processing 80 Energy 2000 2005 2010 2015 70 Finished processing 2000 2005 2010 2015 65 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 5 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries Industrial production Ratio scale, 2012 = 100 130 130 110 110 Excluding high-technology industries 90 90 70 70 50 30 50 Total IP 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Industrial production 2005 2010 2015 30 Percent change from year earlier 20 20 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -5 -10 -15 -20 -15 1970 1975 Industrial production 1980 1985 1990 1995 Ratio scale, 2012 = 100 200 180 160 140 Communications equipment Capacity utilization 95 120 100 100 Computers 80 2010 2015 -20 Percent of capacity 100 Excluding high-technology industries 95 85 85 75 75 65 65 80 60 40 2005 100 200 180 160 140 120 2000 60 Semiconductors 2008 2010 2012 2014 High-technology industries 55 2016 2018 45 40 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 55 2015 45 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 3344), computers (NAICS 3341), and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 6 Table 1 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item 2018 proportion1 Annual rate 2018 Q2 Q3r Q4r Monthly rate 2018 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 2019 Jan.p Jan. ’18 to Jan. ’19 2016 2017 2018 100.00 -.5 3.0 4.3 5.2 4.9 4.6 .9 .2 .3 .6 .1 -.6 3.8 53.17 27.56 6.17 3.23 .13 .83 1.98 21.39 16.22 9.31 .19 5.30 1.02 5.17 -.1 .8 2.5 4.2 2.1 .3 .8 .2 -.8 .2 -2.7 -1.9 -3.9 4.4 2.1 1.3 -.4 -.6 5.0 -2.1 .2 1.8 1.6 3.2 -9.9 .8 -4.3 2.5 2.7 1.9 4.2 4.8 6.4 .4 4.6 1.3 .5 .8 -3.9 1.3 -4.4 3.6 2.3 1.0 -4.1 -8.6 -6.3 -1.4 2.8 2.6 -.7 .7 -.9 -.9 -12.8 13.3 1.8 .5 8.5 11.2 18.7 3.4 5.9 -1.7 1.8 1.4 -5.0 4.7 -5.7 -11.8 4.5 3.7 5.2 7.9 28.3 1.4 1.3 3.3 -1.5 -3.8 -16.5 2.0 3.3 19.3 .6 .4 2.2 4.4 .2 -1.5 .3 -.1 -.6 -1.2 -3.1 .0 2.2 1.4 .3 .3 1.2 1.6 .5 .6 .8 .0 .2 .3 -1.5 .0 1.9 -.7 .6 .8 -1.3 -2.5 3.1 .0 -.3 1.4 .0 -.4 -1.1 .2 1.4 5.8 .2 .2 .7 1.1 2.3 .9 -.3 .1 -.4 -1.0 -1.1 .9 -2.0 1.8 -.1 -.9 1.9 3.4 3.6 -.6 .4 -1.8 .0 .8 -1.8 -.7 -3.6 -7.1 -.7 -.7 -4.5 -8.0 1.5 -1.0 -.2 .4 -.1 -.1 -1.2 -.1 .9 2.1 1.7 .0 1.3 -.5 15.8 -.1 4.0 -.3 .5 .8 -7.9 1.2 -4.1 -3.1 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 9.21 2.36 2.07 4.78 2.07 -2.2 -6.0 3.3 -2.4 .0 4.4 .7 3.1 7.0 -3.3 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.1 9.5 .9 -3.9 4.3 2.0 7.8 9.2 12.3 5.2 9.4 12.6 8.1 9.0 2.3 10.3 14.6 1.6 1.1 -.8 2.8 1.6 1.0 2.4 .1 .7 1.2 .2 -1.7 -.1 1.3 .8 .4 .5 .3 .3 .2 .9 4.8 1.9 -1.5 3.5 -1.5 -5.3 -1.8 .6 -.6 3.8 3.2 3.0 4.4 11.2 Construction supplies Business supplies 5.07 8.60 .5 .5 3.4 1.1 3.3 .5 4.3 3.1 -.5 -1.9 5.6 .6 .4 -.1 -.2 -.2 .3 .7 .6 -.3 2.0 -.5 -.4 -.1 5.3 -.1 46.83 26.99 15.92 2.90 4.57 8.46 11.07 .34 1.76 5.88 19.84 -1.1 -.2 -.8 -.2 .3 -1.6 .7 .5 .1 .2 -2.7 4.1 2.2 2.2 .6 .8 3.6 2.2 -3.1 -3.5 4.1 7.3 6.2 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.9 3.1 2.4 3.3 -.3 4.6 10.5 8.7 6.0 2.8 -3.5 5.4 3.6 10.8 -.7 -.9 21.3 12.6 8.5 3.6 3.0 1.1 8.9 .5 4.4 2.7 1.5 6.8 15.6 4.6 2.9 5.4 9.1 1.3 6.4 -.6 3.4 -2.0 .8 7.0 1.2 .5 .6 2.1 1.5 -.4 .4 3.0 -2.1 1.3 2.1 .1 -.1 .4 .5 -.2 .8 -.9 -1.5 .2 -1.4 .3 -.1 -.2 -.1 -.7 -.4 .2 -.2 2.9 .2 -.4 .0 1.0 .8 1.0 2.0 .2 1.1 .4 -1.5 -.2 1.2 1.4 .3 .8 .9 1.6 .6 .8 .7 -3.2 .1 1.1 -.4 -.4 -.9 -1.4 -4.1 -.9 -.7 -.1 1.1 -.3 -.1 .1 6.3 4.2 3.5 2.2 3.5 3.9 5.2 .3 .3 9.2 9.2 321 327 331 332 333 334 73.52 71.70 36.58 1.42 2.22 2.63 5.45 5.27 4.64 -.1 .1 -.3 4.2 -.4 -4.0 -1.8 -2.3 4.5 1.9 2.1 1.9 3.8 5.2 4.5 3.1 9.1 2.5 2.6 2.9 4.5 .7 2.1 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.5 2.3 2.6 2.0 -2.5 5.3 1.2 4.2 5.1 6.2 3.8 4.4 5.9 .8 -4.5 1.3 4.4 11.8 8.7 2.6 2.7 6.1 -2.4 .7 16.5 5.0 9.5 1.5 .5 .5 1.4 1.8 -.3 1.7 .7 3.1 .0 .2 .2 .6 .0 -1.2 1.1 .5 .5 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.2 -1.8 1.0 .6 .3 .5 -.3 .3 .3 .6 .6 -1.4 3.1 .4 1.3 .2 .8 .9 1.2 .4 3.1 -.3 .2 -1.1 1.7 -.9 -.9 -1.7 -.4 -.8 -.2 .4 -.5 -1.4 2.9 3.1 3.9 .2 3.8 6.7 5.4 5.1 4.3 335 3361–3 1.75 5.48 -.1 2.2 .5 -1.3 2.7 5.4 5.7 -9.6 4.6 9.8 -3.0 8.2 -.6 3.9 .1 2.2 -.9 -2.7 .2 .9 .5 4.3 -2.1 -8.8 .2 -.7 3364–9 337 339 4.04 1.14 2.53 -3.1 -.7 -1.8 -2.4 -3.4 -3.4 4.1 2.9 1.9 3.7 2.3 5.3 8.2 4.5 -.1 9.6 6.9 6.2 1.3 .2 .5 .5 1.2 .0 .5 .9 1.4 .2 .4 -.3 2.7 -1.0 .5 -.3 1.0 -.3 6.8 4.1 4.0 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 35.12 11.29 .62 .20 2.35 1.30 3.43 12.48 3.45 .6 .7 .2 -2.5 1.0 1.1 3.8 -.6 1.6 2.4 3.5 -1.7 -9.4 -2.3 -2.0 2.6 3.3 2.0 1.3 1.0 -.2 -4.0 -.1 -1.9 .5 3.0 -.3 3.3 1.4 -1.5 -1.5 .5 .5 3.2 9.3 -6.7 2.7 1.9 .9 -5.5 .4 -1.5 .7 5.2 3.3 -.7 -4.1 -6.7 -15.7 -.5 -5.8 1.2 2.1 2.6 -.4 -1.1 1.3 -3.1 -1.2 -2.0 1.0 .3 -.7 -.2 .2 -1.7 -1.4 -.2 .9 -.4 -.6 .5 -.1 -.5 .9 -1.0 .7 -.7 -.3 .1 -.1 .0 -1.0 -1.8 -1.1 -.5 -.9 -.8 1.3 .7 .5 .9 -2.1 -1.7 .1 -.5 3.2 -.2 .5 .0 -.1 .2 -1.1 .1 -.5 1.5 -.4 .3 2.4 1.1 -3.1 -7.9 1.1 -3.2 3.7 4.8 1.5 1133,5111 1.83 -5.1 -7.0 -8.1 -10.5 -15.1 -3.2 .1 1.3 .5 -1.9 -2.8 .5 -8.0 21 2211,2 2211 2212 16.02 10.45 8.95 1.50 -6.2 2.3 2.2 3.6 10.7 2.2 1.1 9.7 14.0 2.2 1.1 8.9 16.4 11.4 10.1 20.1 17.7 -5.7 -1.7 -27.4 11.5 8.1 -1.0 83.2 2.2 1.1 1.4 -.8 .9 -1.3 -1.8 2.2 .2 3.4 .9 19.3 1.0 2.2 1.8 4.5 1.5 -6.9 -4.5 -19.0 .1 .4 -.5 6.0 15.3 -5.6 -6.3 -1.2 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Under the industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation pt denotes part of a NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately. 1. The proportion data are the relative weights for the rates of change for each series in the computation of the change in total industrial production in the following year. 7 Table 2 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Annual rate 2018 Q2 Q3r Q4r 2018 proportion 2016 2017 2018 100.00 -.5 3.0 4.3 5.2 4.9 27.96 5.17 2.38 .58 4.78 15.05 -1.5 4.4 2.4 -26.6 .7 -4.2 6.3 2.5 1.8 36.4 1.0 9.8 8.6 3.6 2.2 18.1 4.6 12.5 12.8 13.3 4.8 56.6 8.9 13.9 72.04 -.3 1.9 2.7 3341 3342 1.87 .33 .47 8.5 13.2 7.1 3.2 19.4 -3.0 3344 1.08 7.9 70.17 Monthly rate 2018 Aug.r Sept. 4.6 .9 .2 .3 7.7 -11.8 -3.3 -8.0 10.8 17.2 8.8 19.3 4.0 1.8 1.7 8.7 1.9 1.4 1.5 -.5 .6 2.6 -.1 -.7 -2.2 -1.4 .3 .3 2.5 3.8 2.9 .5 7.1 .1 12.3 6.1 1.0 -3.9 15.3 -8.6 36.0 3.8 -6.4 43.9 1.9 6.8 12.0 15.5 -.6 1.9 2.6 2.4 5.48 2.69 2.35 2.2 1.5 3.7 -1.3 -5.2 1.4 5.4 9.8 3.6 64.68 19.56 7.69 5.05 5.95 24.32 -.8 -.7 -2.5 .5 -.9 -.7 2.2 1.4 5.0 3.5 .6 2.4 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 98.13 71.65 34.86 -.8 -.3 -.9 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable 94.52 68.04 31.25 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Jan. ’18 to Jan. ’19 r 2019 Jan.p .6 .1 -.6 3.8 1.4 5.8 3.3 1.6 .0 .0 1.3 1.8 -.8 .1 1.4 1.4 -1.8 -7.1 -2.3 -.3 -2.8 .3 .5 2.1 .5 -.9 -.5 .3 5.8 -3.1 -2.2 15.3 -1.8 13.0 .3 -.1 .3 .9 -1.0 3.0 1.7 -1.0 2.0 -.3 -2.7 3.7 .0 .1 4.0 .7 1.1 2.6 .3 -.8 1.2 .1 1.2 .0 6.5 -2.7 17.3 -7.3 2.4 -1.3 -1.7 -.3 .2 -.1 4.8 3.5 2.9 .4 .3 -.1 .3 .9 -1.0 2.9 -9.6 -14.0 -3.3 9.8 18.5 1.1 8.2 15.1 6.2 3.9 5.6 3.0 2.2 4.2 .6 -2.7 -4.6 -1.0 .9 2.0 .7 4.3 7.1 2.0 -8.8 -14.4 -3.6 -.7 -1.3 1.6 2.4 1.2 3.0 3.3 -.5 3.1 3.5 -.1 2.5 4.3 1.8 6.8 3.0 2.7 6.6 -.6 -2.1 3.4 2.5 -.6 6.6 5.5 -.4 2.9 .1 -.5 1.6 .4 -.8 .2 .2 .3 .5 -.2 .6 -.1 .1 .0 .6 .3 -.3 .0 .3 -.3 .2 .6 -.1 .8 .6 .1 -.1 2.0 .2 .7 -.3 -.1 .1 -.4 -.3 -.6 3.2 1.2 3.7 5.3 .4 4.4 3.0 1.8 1.8 4.2 2.5 4.3 5.2 2.2 1.8 4.7 3.5 5.3 4.6 2.6 6.2 .8 .5 1.4 .2 .2 .6 .3 -.1 -.2 .6 .3 .6 .1 .8 1.3 -.6 -.9 -1.8 3.7 2.8 3.7 -.7 -.3 -.8 3.3 2.1 2.4 4.2 2.4 4.3 6.2 3.3 4.2 4.6 3.4 5.2 4.4 2.2 5.7 .7 .3 1.0 .1 .1 .3 .5 .1 .3 .6 .2 .5 -.2 .5 .7 -.1 -.2 -.5 4.1 3.1 4.7 92.64 66.17 -1.0 -.6 3.3 2.1 4.2 2.3 6.2 3.2 4.4 3.0 4.4 2.1 .7 .2 .1 .1 .5 .1 .6 .2 -.2 .5 -.1 -.2 4.0 3.0 9.56 17.43 .1 -.4 -.2 3.6 3.6 3.0 1.2 8.7 4.9 2.9 3.0 2.8 1.1 .2 .0 -.2 -.3 -.1 .6 .9 .7 .9 -1.7 -.4 2.4 5.2 r Oct. r Nov. r Dec. r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 3 M OTOR V EHICLE A SSEMBLIES Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate 2018 average 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2019 Jan. Total Autos Trucks Light Medium and heavy 11.31 2.80 8.51 8.19 .33 11.45 2.88 8.57 8.26 .31 11.00 2.77 8.22 7.92 .30 11.14 2.55 8.59 8.24 .35 11.69 2.94 8.75 8.39 .36 11.34 2.48 8.86 8.53 .33 11.67 2.77 8.89 8.54 .35 11.29 2.86 8.43 8.09 .35 11.51 2.88 8.63 8.29 .35 12.27 3.07 9.19 8.80 .40 10.60 2.61 7.98 7.66 .32 Memo Autos and light trucks 10.98 11.14 10.69 10.80 11.33 11.01 11.32 10.94 11.17 11.87 10.27 Item NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s website, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm 8 Table 4 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY 2012 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2018 proportion 2018 May June July Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 2019 Jan.p 100.00 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.8 109.0 109.3 110.0 110.1 109.4 53.17 27.56 6.17 3.23 .13 .83 1.98 21.39 16.22 9.31 .19 5.30 1.02 5.17 102.8 104.6 116.0 125.2 110.8 106.9 108.3 101.7 99.8 108.2 73.7 91.4 82.5 107.7 103.5 105.3 119.8 133.0 112.3 107.1 108.3 101.6 99.6 108.3 71.2 91.4 79.5 107.7 103.6 105.5 119.2 130.2 116.2 109.0 109.3 102.1 100.8 109.8 74.1 92.5 79.3 105.8 104.2 105.9 121.8 135.9 116.4 107.3 109.6 101.9 100.2 108.5 71.8 92.5 81.1 107.3 104.5 106.2 123.3 138.1 117.0 108.0 110.5 101.9 100.4 108.8 70.7 92.5 82.7 106.5 105.1 107.0 121.6 134.7 120.7 108.0 110.2 103.3 100.4 108.3 70.0 92.6 83.8 112.7 105.3 107.3 122.5 136.3 123.5 109.1 109.9 103.5 99.9 107.3 69.2 93.4 82.1 114.7 105.3 106.3 124.8 140.9 127.9 108.4 110.4 101.6 100.0 108.2 67.9 92.8 79.2 106.6 104.5 105.6 119.3 129.6 129.9 107.4 110.1 102.1 99.9 108.1 67.2 92.7 79.9 108.8 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 9.21 2.36 2.07 4.78 2.07 97.5 105.1 106.0 91.0 89.5 99.5 112.1 106.8 91.4 90.4 99.7 111.1 108.5 91.5 91.3 101.2 112.4 107.6 94.1 92.8 102.2 115.0 107.8 94.8 93.9 102.5 113.1 107.7 96.1 94.7 102.8 113.6 108.0 96.4 94.9 103.8 119.1 110.0 95.0 98.2 102.2 112.8 108.0 95.6 97.5 Construction supplies Business supplies 5.07 8.60 114.7 103.6 114.2 103.8 114.1 103.5 114.5 103.5 114.3 103.2 114.6 103.9 115.3 103.6 117.6 103.1 117.1 103.0 46.83 26.99 15.92 2.90 4.57 8.46 11.07 .34 1.76 5.88 19.84 111.2 104.7 105.8 109.0 105.4 104.8 103.0 93.4 93.0 103.8 119.2 111.7 105.4 106.5 111.4 106.2 105.0 103.5 94.1 92.3 105.2 119.7 112.6 105.7 106.6 109.8 107.0 105.2 104.3 93.0 94.4 105.3 121.4 114.0 106.2 107.2 112.1 108.6 104.7 104.7 95.8 92.4 106.6 124.0 114.0 106.1 107.6 112.7 108.3 105.5 103.8 94.4 92.6 105.1 124.3 113.9 105.9 107.5 111.9 107.9 105.7 103.6 97.2 92.8 104.7 124.4 115.1 106.7 108.6 114.1 108.2 106.9 104.0 95.8 92.6 105.9 126.1 115.4 107.6 109.5 116.0 108.8 107.7 104.7 92.7 92.7 107.1 125.6 114.9 106.7 108.0 111.3 107.9 107.0 104.6 93.7 92.3 106.9 125.7 321 327 331 332 333 334 73.52 71.70 36.58 1.42 2.22 2.63 5.45 5.27 4.64 103.3 104.2 104.7 125.4 121.1 96.5 101.7 90.1 118.4 104.0 105.0 106.1 125.4 119.8 95.9 103.0 90.8 119.7 104.4 105.5 106.0 124.3 120.1 95.3 102.7 91.2 121.5 104.9 106.0 107.5 126.6 119.8 96.9 103.4 94.0 121.5 105.2 106.3 108.1 126.6 118.3 98.0 103.9 94.5 121.4 105.0 106.1 108.0 124.4 119.5 98.5 104.2 94.9 121.0 105.3 106.4 108.6 125.1 117.8 101.6 104.7 96.1 121.3 106.1 107.4 109.9 125.7 121.5 101.3 104.9 95.0 123.3 105.2 106.4 108.0 125.2 120.5 101.1 105.3 94.6 121.6 335 3361–3 1.75 5.48 103.6 118.9 104.6 127.4 105.5 124.3 104.9 129.1 104.9 131.9 104.0 128.3 104.2 129.5 104.8 135.1 102.6 123.2 3364–9 337 339 4.04 1.14 2.53 97.2 104.2 96.9 98.0 103.9 95.8 98.5 104.5 95.8 99.8 104.7 96.3 100.3 105.9 96.3 100.8 106.9 97.6 101.0 107.3 97.3 103.7 106.2 97.8 103.4 107.3 97.5 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 35.12 11.29 .62 .20 2.35 1.30 3.43 12.48 3.45 103.6 110.1 98.1 74.8 96.1 98.0 107.5 98.9 107.5 103.9 110.2 98.9 72.3 95.3 98.2 108.3 99.3 107.7 104.8 111.7 98.6 75.1 97.0 98.6 107.1 100.2 109.3 104.4 110.6 99.9 72.8 95.8 96.6 108.2 100.4 108.5 104.3 110.8 98.3 71.8 95.7 97.4 107.7 99.8 109.1 104.1 110.3 99.2 71.1 96.3 96.8 107.4 99.9 109.0 104.2 109.2 97.4 70.3 95.9 96.0 106.6 101.2 109.7 104.7 110.2 95.3 69.1 96.0 95.5 110.0 100.9 110.3 104.7 110.1 95.4 68.3 96.1 95.0 111.7 100.5 110.7 1133,5111 1.83 77.6 74.4 73.7 73.8 74.7 75.1 73.7 71.6 72.0 21 2211,2 2211 2212 16.02 10.45 8.95 1.50 120.7 105.7 106.3 102.5 122.8 104.1 103.9 106.4 123.8 104.2 103.8 108.2 126.5 105.4 105.3 107.3 127.6 104.1 103.4 109.6 127.9 107.5 104.2 130.8 129.3 109.9 106.1 136.8 131.2 102.4 101.3 110.7 131.3 102.8 100.8 117.3 Item Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas 31–33 r Revised. p Preliminary. NOTE. Refer to notes on table 1. 9 Table 5 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION I NDEXES : S PECIAL AGGREGATES 2012 = 100, seasonally adjusted 2018 proportion 2018 May June July Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 2019 Jan.p 100.00 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.8 109.0 109.3 110.0 110.1 109.4 27.96 5.17 2.38 .58 4.78 15.05 115.2 107.7 110.1 78.2 103.1 123.8 115.6 107.7 111.4 80.5 99.4 125.8 116.2 105.8 110.2 77.0 103.6 126.6 118.4 107.3 111.8 76.6 104.1 129.9 118.2 106.5 109.4 75.6 104.5 130.2 119.9 112.7 113.0 76.8 104.5 130.3 121.4 114.7 112.1 76.8 106.0 132.1 119.2 106.6 109.5 76.6 103.0 132.5 119.7 108.8 110.0 75.9 102.5 132.9 72.04 103.3 104.0 104.4 104.9 105.2 105.1 105.4 106.4 105.3 3341 3342 1.87 .33 .47 145.4 143.5 116.5 148.6 147.3 118.8 150.2 144.9 123.6 152.8 143.4 126.1 152.3 139.6 130.9 152.4 139.7 136.0 153.4 141.2 139.6 153.9 140.0 141.3 154.0 141.7 141.3 3344 1.08 159.2 162.7 163.9 167.8 165.7 162.9 162.4 162.7 162.5 70.17 102.0 102.7 103.0 103.5 103.8 103.7 104.0 104.9 103.8 5.48 2.69 2.35 118.9 112.3 125.2 127.4 126.9 128.2 124.3 121.9 125.4 129.1 128.8 129.3 131.9 134.2 130.0 128.3 128.0 128.8 129.5 130.7 129.6 135.1 139.9 132.2 123.2 119.8 127.4 64.68 19.56 7.69 5.05 5.95 24.32 100.8 101.1 95.1 114.7 97.7 101.8 100.9 101.0 95.7 114.2 97.5 102.2 101.5 102.2 96.0 114.0 97.4 102.7 101.7 101.8 97.5 114.4 96.7 102.9 101.9 102.1 98.0 114.2 97.3 102.8 101.9 102.0 98.6 114.5 97.0 102.7 102.2 101.7 98.8 115.2 96.9 103.6 102.8 101.8 98.7 117.6 97.1 104.3 102.5 101.7 98.8 117.1 96.8 103.7 98.13 71.65 34.86 105.9 102.0 102.1 106.5 102.6 103.5 107.0 103.0 103.3 107.9 103.5 104.8 108.1 103.8 105.4 108.4 103.6 105.2 109.0 103.9 105.8 109.1 104.7 107.2 108.5 103.8 105.2 94.52 68.04 31.25 106.2 102.2 102.7 106.5 102.5 103.2 107.1 103.1 103.5 107.9 103.3 104.5 107.9 103.4 104.8 108.4 103.5 105.1 109.1 103.7 105.7 108.9 104.3 106.4 108.8 104.0 105.9 92.64 66.17 105.3 100.8 105.5 101.0 106.1 101.5 106.8 101.8 106.9 101.9 107.4 101.9 108.0 102.2 107.9 102.7 107.8 102.5 9.56 17.43 103.4 105.3 104.4 105.8 104.7 106.2 105.8 106.4 105.8 106.2 105.6 106.1 106.2 107.0 106.9 107.9 105.1 107.5 Item Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary energy 213111 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Durable Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing1 Stage-of-process components of non-energy materials, measures of the input to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 6 D IFFUSION I NDEXES OF I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Percent Item One month earlier 2016 2017 2018 Three months earlier 2016 2017 2018 Six months earlier 2016 2017 2018 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 53.7 60.0 50.3 45.3 51.3 63.0 45.0 47.0 48.7 42.3 65.3 62.3 50.0 43.7 44.0 47.7 57.7 58.3 52.0 51.0 55.8 45.3 52.3 52.0 54.3 55.7 54.3 60.3 63.0 52.0 52.0 54.0 53.0 58.7 59.0 61.3 50.7 55.7 55.7 48.3 61.0 67.3 48.7 52.3 54.7 37.3 57.7 69.0 43.3 45.3 45.7 48.7 56.0 55.7 56.3 48.0 53.0 46.7 50.3 65.7 56.0 56.3 57.3 58.3 63.0 54.7 57.0 69.0 52.3 59.3 64.0 63.7 47.7 57.0 61.3 41.0 64.3 69.3 39.7 55.7 63.3 38.3 60.0 67.3 43.0 56.0 56.7 48.7 56.3 58.0 44.7 49.3 65.0 45.7 50.0 56.3 52.0 58.7 58.0 58.3 53.0 54.3 54.7 61.0 63.0 58.3 63.3 62.3 NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged. 10 Table 7 C APACITY U TILIZATION Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted 2018 proportion 19722018 ave. 199495 high 2009 low 2018 Q2 Q3r Q4r 2018 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 2019 Jan.p 100.00 79.8 85.0 66.7 77.8 78.3 78.8 78.5 78.5 78.6 78.9 78.8 78.2 31–33 76.24 73.79 78.3 78.2 84.6 84.7 63.7 63.5 75.5 76.1 76.0 76.6 76.2 76.8 76.0 76.7 76.1 76.7 75.9 76.5 76.0 76.6 76.5 77.2 75.8 76.4 321 327 331 332 333 334 37.98 1.41 2.63 2.93 5.27 5.34 5.20 76.8 76.5 73.6 78.1 77.6 77.5 77.4 83.8 86.6 82.4 94.1 84.9 87.2 84.4 58.3 47.7 45.6 49.7 61.9 59.0 70.3 75.2 78.2 66.5 69.7 80.9 76.1 71.5 76.0 77.6 65.3 70.1 81.5 78.5 72.2 76.9 76.4 64.9 73.0 82.2 80.5 71.8 76.2 78.1 65.5 70.2 81.5 79.1 72.3 76.6 77.8 64.5 71.1 81.8 79.6 71.9 76.4 76.2 65.0 71.5 82.0 80.0 71.5 76.7 76.4 63.9 73.8 82.3 81.1 71.4 77.6 76.5 65.7 73.6 82.3 80.2 72.4 76.1 76.2 65.0 73.5 82.6 79.7 71.0 335 3361–3 1.80 5.49 82.0 75.3 92.7 87.7 66.8 33.7 76.8 77.1 77.2 78.8 76.1 80.1 77.0 79.2 76.9 80.8 76.0 78.6 76.1 79.2 76.3 82.5 74.4 75.3 3364–9 337 339 4.16 1.18 2.58 74.3 76.7 76.6 70.4 82.7 81.3 73.0 55.8 68.4 75.3 75.3 77.4 76.8 75.8 77.0 78.5 76.8 77.7 77.0 75.5 77.1 77.4 76.3 77.0 77.7 76.9 77.9 77.9 77.1 77.5 80.0 76.2 77.8 79.7 76.9 77.4 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 35.72 11.58 .69 .23 2.13 1.40 3.46 12.83 3.39 80.1 80.5 78.7 76.1 86.7 79.4 85.0 76.8 82.1 86.0 85.4 91.8 86.9 92.7 84.9 91.0 82.0 93.2 69.0 75.2 54.0 56.4 72.9 58.8 76.3 65.4 57.5 77.1 77.1 69.8 67.2 86.5 73.9 79.0 75.4 79.3 77.4 77.1 70.0 66.8 86.9 73.5 78.7 76.3 79.1 77.0 75.8 68.9 64.5 87.0 72.4 78.7 76.7 78.7 77.3 76.7 70.7 66.4 86.5 72.8 79.1 76.6 78.7 77.1 76.7 69.6 65.7 86.5 73.4 78.6 76.1 78.8 76.9 76.2 70.2 65.2 87.2 72.9 78.4 76.1 78.5 76.9 75.4 69.0 64.6 86.8 72.3 77.7 77.1 78.7 77.2 75.9 67.5 63.7 87.0 71.9 80.2 76.9 78.8 77.1 75.7 67.6 63.2 87.2 71.3 81.4 76.5 78.9 1133,5111 2.44 79.6 83.2 68.3 59.3 57.3 57.3 57.1 58.0 58.4 57.4 56.0 56.3 21 2211,2 13.39 10.38 87.1 85.2 88.6 92.9 78.2 78.3 91.2 78.9 93.5 77.4 94.5 78.5 93.9 78.0 94.2 76.9 93.9 79.3 94.4 80.9 95.3 75.2 94.8 75.4 3341 3342 2.10 .30 .59 77.3 78.2 76.1 86.6 88.0 86.0 71.1 83.0 77.2 73.4 92.4 60.3 74.9 87.1 64.4 74.6 82.5 69.7 75.4 87.5 64.0 74.8 84.1 66.2 74.5 83.2 68.5 74.6 83.0 70.0 74.5 81.3 70.6 74.1 81.4 70.3 3344 1.21 78.6 91.8 62.9 75.2 77.2 75.0 78.2 76.9 75.4 74.9 74.8 74.3 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 97.90 74.14 79.9 78.3 84.9 84.5 66.5 63.3 77.9 75.6 78.4 76.0 78.9 76.2 78.6 76.1 78.6 76.2 78.7 76.0 79.0 76.1 78.9 76.6 78.3 75.9 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 17.57 44.58 37.76 86.1 80.3 76.8 90.0 87.7 80.7 76.4 63.8 66.6 89.2 76.5 74.5 91.5 76.1 75.4 92.0 76.6 75.7 91.9 76.3 75.3 92.0 76.0 75.7 91.5 76.5 75.5 92.0 77.2 75.4 92.6 76.2 76.1 92.1 75.9 75.0 Item Total industry 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemicals Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Refer to note on cover page. 11 Table 8 I NDUSTRIAL C APACITY Percent change Average annual rate 19721980198979 88 94 Item Total industry Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Annual rate 19952019 2016 2017 2018 2019 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 Q1 Monthly rate 2019 Jan. 3.0 1.9 2.3 2.0 .6 .6 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 .2 Manufacturing 3.2 2.2 2.6 2.0 1.3 .7 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 .1 Mining Utilities .7 4.4 .1 2.2 -.7 1.8 1.4 1.7 -3.1 1.6 -1.0 1.8 5.7 2.0 7.1 2.1 5.7 1.9 6.5 2.1 6.5 2.2 6.9 2.2 .6 .2 18.6 16.7 16.0 17.4 7.4 3.2 5.5 6.9 5.5 6.0 5.9 6.8 .6 2.6 1.3 1.6 .8 1.1 .7 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 .1 1.5 3.0 3.9 .4 1.3 3.3 -.5 2.5 2.8 1.3 2.2 1.8 -2.4 1.7 1.0 -.5 .7 1.1 4.1 1.4 1.3 5.7 1.5 1.5 4.1 1.4 1.3 4.6 1.6 1.3 4.7 1.6 1.3 5.4 1.6 1.4 .5 .1 .1 1 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing1 ex. selected high-technology industries S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 1. Refer to note on cover page. Table 9 G ROSS VALUE OF F INAL P RODUCTS AND N ONINDUSTRIAL S UPPLIES Billions of 2009 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 2009 2018 2018 Q2 Q3r Q4r 2018 Aug.r Sept.r Oct.r Nov.r Dec.r 2019 Jan.p 3,235.9 3,731.9 3,713.9 3,732.9 3,776.3 3,739.5 3,751.8 3,768.1 3,774.6 3,786.3 3,748.8 2,409.2 1,780.9 342.0 188.1 153.9 1,438.9 2,772.1 2,000.4 512.2 338.5 173.4 1,504.0 2,754.0 1,994.8 504.2 332.1 171.9 1,505.6 2,774.2 1,997.1 513.8 339.5 174.0 1,499.3 2,812.9 2,017.5 523.5 348.2 174.9 1,510.7 2,778.9 2,000.9 515.5 341.7 173.4 1,501.6 2,793.8 2,005.9 525.0 350.1 174.6 1,497.9 2,805.9 2,016.9 515.8 341.1 174.5 1,517.0 2,813.1 2,021.1 520.4 345.2 174.9 1,516.9 2,819.6 2,014.6 534.2 358.4 175.4 1,498.2 2,783.2 1,995.5 501.1 326.2 174.7 1,509.2 Equipment, total Business and defense Business Defense and space 628.4 609.7 492.9 116.8 778.6 756.3 643.4 113.6 765.0 741.9 631.6 111.0 784.7 762.2 648.4 114.5 804.1 781.7 663.6 118.8 785.5 762.7 648.7 114.6 796.3 774.1 658.7 116.2 797.0 774.7 658.2 117.2 800.4 778.0 661.2 117.5 814.9 792.5 671.5 121.6 796.5 774.3 653.6 121.0 Nonindustrial supplies Construction supplies Business supplies Commercial energy products 826.6 232.1 594.5 218.3 961.0 296.5 664.0 243.2 961.6 295.9 665.3 243.8 959.8 296.3 663.0 242.1 963.9 299.4 663.8 243.0 961.7 297.1 664.0 244.4 958.6 296.4 661.6 240.2 962.8 296.4 666.0 245.4 961.8 298.2 662.8 242.6 967.2 303.5 662.5 240.9 966.9 302.6 663.3 242.0 r 2019 Jan.p Jan. ’18 to Jan. ’19 1.4 .0 -1.3 1.3 -2.2 -1.0 .7 -.4 2.5 .4 2.2 10.5 Item Final products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Other durable goods Nondurable r Revised. p Preliminary. Table 10 G ROSS -VALUE -W EIGHTED I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : S TAGE - OF -P ROCESS G ROUPS Percent change, seasonally adjusted Fourth quarter to fourth quarter Item Finished Semifinished Primary Crude 2018 gross value1 2016 2017 2,192.5 1,954.9 1,502.0 787.8 -.2 .7 1.9 -2.0 2.0 1.4 2.3 5.8 Annual rate 2018 2018 Q2 3.7 2.1 2.9 8.0 .1 2.9 6.2 14.8 r Revised. p Preliminary. 1. Billions of 2009 dollars. 12 Monthly rate Q3 r Q4 2018 Aug.r Sept. 6.3 .8 -1.0 13.3 4.3 1.5 6.7 4.3 1.0 .8 .7 1.5 .8 -.5 .0 .2 r r Oct. r -.3 .1 1.0 -.5 Nov. r .1 .5 1.2 .8 Dec. Table 11 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual .1 .5 .5 .0 -.6 1.2 .1 .5 .3 -.6 .7 .1 .2 .4 -.3 .0 .4 .3 .7 -.3 .6 .6 .7 .2 -.6 .5 -.6 -.2 .1 -.6 .8 -.3 .6 -.1 -.6 1.0 2.1 .4 -.3 -.1 .9 -.2 -.4 .4 -.4 .9 .8 1.3 -.3 -.4 .9 -.1 .5 .0 -.5 .3 .4 .8 -.3 .0 7.9 4.6 4.5 4.1 -5.1 5.9 2.7 3.9 5.0 -5.0 9.5 3.0 3.6 -.4 -5.4 10.5 5.9 7.3 -.9 -4.1 7.2 5.8 4.4 3.9 -3.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .6 .6 .3 .5 .1 .0 .3 .6 .7 .0 .8 -.2 -.5 -.1 .2 .4 -.7 .4 .2 .4 .4 .0 .8 .1 -.1 1.0 .2 -.8 .4 .4 -.2 .4 .8 -.3 .0 .0 -.2 .1 .3 .4 .1 .6 .1 -1.9 -.2 -.3 .1 .9 1.3 -.1 .5 .8 .2 1.0 -.1 -.5 -.1 .7 .6 1.1 3.0 2.3 2.8 5.9 3.8 6.3 -2.7 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.3 -1.8 1.5 -.1 4.0 5.8 3.9 .9 .4 1.3 2.7 3.3 2.3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -.5 -.3 -2.4 1.2 -.1 1.0 -.3 -.7 .4 -.4 .2 -.2 -1.6 .7 1.0 .7 -.8 -.8 .4 -.3 .0 -.6 -1.0 1.4 .2 .0 -.2 -.4 .1 .3 .0 -.5 1.1 .4 .5 .2 -1.5 1.1 .3 .6 .4 -4.3 .8 .2 -.1 -.4 1.0 .3 -.3 .7 .6 -1.3 .4 .0 -.1 .0 -2.9 .3 .9 .5 3.6 -1.4 -20.7 8.1 2.3 5.0 -5.8 -10.9 8.0 1.6 1.0 -12.6 6.2 5.3 4.7 1.2 -16.0 6.5 1.3 4.1 2.5 -3.5 -11.5 5.5 3.1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 .6 .0 -.5 -.6 .7 .3 .5 .9 -.4 -.7 -.5 .4 1.0 -.3 -.8 .8 -.1 .1 -.5 .2 .2 .1 .3 -.5 -.1 .0 .2 .3 -.4 .3 .3 -.5 .1 .5 .2 -.4 .7 -.1 -.1 -.1 .0 .5 .3 -.4 -.1 .2 -.1 .0 -.4 .1 .5 .3 .8 -.6 -.2 .3 .3 -.1 -.5 .9 4.0 3.3 3.0 -3.2 -1.9 2.6 1.7 5.7 -5.0 -2.1 .1 1.2 2.1 -.3 1.1 2.1 3.0 2.7 -4.7 .7 3.0 2.0 3.1 -1.0 -1.9 2017 2018 2019 -.2 -.3 -.6 -.4 .5 .6 .5 1.0 1.1 .0 -.8 .1 .6 -.1 .4 -.4 .9 .0 .2 1.5 .3 .5 .6 .5 .1 1.0 2.5 5.0 5.2 -1.5 4.9 7.7 4.6 1.6 4.1 IP (2012=100) 2017 2018 2019 102.5 105.4 109.4 102.2 105.9 102.7 106.4 103.7 107.7 103.7 106.8 103.8 107.4 103.6 107.9 103.2 108.8 103.2 109.0 104.8 109.3 105.3 110.0 105.8 110.1 102.5 105.9 103.7 107.3 103.3 108.6 105.3 109.8 103.7 108.0 Capacity (percent of 2012 output) 2017 2018 2019 135.9 137.0 139.9 136.0 137.2 136.0 137.4 136.0 137.6 136.1 137.9 136.1 138.1 136.2 138.4 136.3 138.6 136.4 138.9 136.5 139.1 136.6 139.4 136.8 139.6 136.0 137.2 136.1 137.9 136.3 138.6 136.6 139.4 136.2 138.3 Utilization (percent) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 83.3 84.3 81.8 81.9 79.1 83.9 83.9 81.9 81.9 78.4 84.0 83.4 81.7 81.9 77.9 83.6 83.2 81.6 82.2 77.5 83.6 83.2 81.8 82.1 76.8 83.6 82.2 81.4 81.9 76.1 83.7 81.4 81.6 81.5 75.5 84.1 82.6 81.6 81.0 75.2 84.4 82.1 81.0 81.1 74.8 84.6 82.3 81.8 80.6 74.3 84.7 81.9 81.9 80.3 73.8 84.5 81.8 82.2 79.9 73.6 83.7 83.9 81.8 81.9 78.5 83.6 82.8 81.6 82.1 76.8 84.1 82.0 81.4 81.2 75.2 84.6 82.0 81.9 80.2 73.9 84.0 82.7 81.7 81.4 76.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 74.0 75.6 77.1 79.9 80.5 73.8 75.9 77.5 80.4 80.4 74.3 75.8 77.2 80.2 80.5 74.6 75.3 77.5 80.2 80.7 74.8 75.3 78.1 80.2 80.5 75.5 75.5 77.5 80.4 80.7 75.3 75.8 78.1 80.1 80.5 75.2 75.7 78.2 80.2 80.7 75.3 76.2 78.2 78.6 80.3 75.1 76.3 78.9 79.5 80.1 75.5 76.9 79.1 80.2 79.9 75.2 76.8 79.6 80.6 80.5 74.1 75.8 77.3 80.2 80.5 74.9 75.3 77.7 80.3 80.6 75.3 75.9 78.2 79.6 80.5 75.3 76.7 79.2 80.1 80.2 74.9 75.9 78.1 80.0 80.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 79.9 80.9 70.0 70.9 75.6 80.5 80.7 69.4 71.3 75.3 80.5 80.6 68.3 71.9 76.0 80.9 80.0 67.7 72.3 75.7 80.8 79.6 67.0 73.5 75.8 80.7 79.4 66.7 73.8 76.0 80.6 79.0 67.5 74.2 76.3 80.7 77.8 68.3 74.6 76.6 80.9 74.3 68.9 74.9 76.5 80.6 75.0 69.2 74.8 76.9 81.0 74.0 69.6 74.9 76.7 81.1 71.7 69.9 75.6 77.0 80.3 80.7 69.2 71.3 75.6 80.8 79.7 67.1 73.2 75.8 80.7 77.0 68.2 74.6 76.5 80.9 73.6 69.6 75.1 76.9 80.7 77.8 68.5 73.6 76.2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 77.4 77.1 77.6 78.8 76.3 77.4 77.4 78.2 78.4 75.7 76.9 77.6 78.9 78.1 75.1 77.4 77.5 78.9 77.7 75.2 77.4 77.4 79.1 77.3 75.0 77.2 77.5 79.2 76.9 75.3 77.3 77.1 79.2 77.3 75.4 76.9 77.6 79.1 77.2 75.3 76.8 77.9 79.2 76.9 75.1 76.8 77.7 79.1 76.6 75.2 77.1 77.9 79.6 76.1 75.0 77.2 78.1 79.4 75.7 75.7 77.2 77.4 78.3 78.5 75.7 77.3 77.5 79.1 77.3 75.2 77.0 77.5 79.2 77.1 75.2 77.1 77.9 79.4 76.1 75.3 77.2 77.6 79.0 77.3 75.3 2017 2018 2019 75.4 77.0 78.2 75.1 77.2 75.5 77.5 76.2 78.2 76.2 77.5 76.2 77.8 76.1 78.0 75.7 78.5 75.7 78.5 76.8 78.6 77.1 78.9 77.3 78.8 75.4 77.2 76.2 77.8 75.8 78.3 77.0 78.8 76.1 78.0 IP (percent change)1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 13 Table 12 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual .1 .8 .3 .1 -.6 1.4 .1 .8 .2 -.6 1.0 -.1 -.1 .6 -.2 -.2 .5 .4 .8 -.3 .7 .5 .9 -.1 -.6 .7 -.8 -.3 .2 -.7 .7 -.4 .5 .1 -.4 1.3 2.4 .6 -.7 -.5 .9 -.2 -.4 .4 -.2 .9 1.0 1.5 -.3 -.6 1.1 .2 .6 -.3 -.3 .4 .5 .7 -.5 .3 9.4 6.1 5.1 4.4 -5.9 7.1 2.1 4.5 4.9 -5.2 10.4 3.3 3.2 -.4 -5.8 11.5 8.0 8.6 -2.4 -3.8 8.4 6.7 5.1 4.1 -3.6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .6 .5 .0 .8 .8 .0 .1 .7 .8 -.3 .8 .1 -.2 -.5 -.1 .2 -.8 .4 .3 .5 .5 .1 .8 .3 -.4 1.1 .5 -.7 .1 .4 -.3 .2 .9 -.3 -.3 .2 -.4 .5 .5 .6 .1 .8 .0 -1.0 .1 -.4 .1 1.0 1.5 -.4 .4 1.0 .0 .8 .0 -.5 -.2 .7 .2 1.5 3.7 1.8 2.6 6.6 3.8 5.8 -1.9 3.3 2.3 .8 3.1 2.4 4.0 -.7 1.0 -.3 4.5 5.5 6.4 1.5 .5 1.3 3.1 4.1 2.6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -.5 -.4 -3.1 1.1 .2 .4 -.6 -.2 -.1 .1 .8 -.3 -1.8 1.2 .6 .7 -1.1 -.7 .8 -.6 -.1 -.6 -1.0 1.4 .1 .3 -.7 -.3 -.1 .1 .1 -1.2 1.5 .6 .6 -.3 -1.2 1.1 .1 .4 .5 -3.4 .9 .0 .3 -.3 -.6 .2 .1 .6 .5 -2.4 1.0 .0 -.3 .2 -3.5 -.2 .5 .7 4.1 -2.5 -24.4 6.9 3.2 5.9 -8.2 -10.6 10.3 -.1 1.0 -14.1 8.1 4.1 4.4 1.2 -21.8 7.2 1.2 3.9 2.8 -4.8 -13.8 5.8 2.9 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 .8 -.3 -1.2 -.5 .5 .4 .5 1.1 -.6 -.4 -.5 -.1 .8 .3 -.2 .6 -.4 -.1 -.1 -.3 -.4 .3 .2 -.1 -.1 .2 .2 .3 -.4 .3 -.1 -1.0 .3 .6 .2 -.2 1.0 -.4 -.3 -.3 -.1 .1 .0 -.4 .3 -.4 .1 -.1 .0 .2 .7 .0 .8 -.2 .0 .8 .0 -.3 -.2 .3 5.3 3.0 -.6 -2.9 .0 .5 -.2 4.2 -1.0 -2.5 -1.2 -.3 1.3 .1 .6 1.2 1.9 .6 -2.4 1.6 2.6 .9 1.1 -.5 -.8 2017 2018 2019 .3 -.5 -.9 .1 1.5 -.5 -.1 1.1 .6 -.4 -1.0 .1 .7 -.3 .4 -.2 .5 -.1 .2 1.3 -.1 .2 .3 .0 .8 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3 -2.1 3.8 5.3 2.6 1.2 2.5 IP (2012=100) 2017 2018 2019 101.5 102.3 105.2 101.6 103.8 101.1 103.7 102.2 104.3 101.8 103.3 101.9 104.0 101.7 104.4 101.4 104.9 101.3 105.2 102.6 105.0 102.9 105.3 102.8 106.1 101.4 103.3 102.0 103.8 101.5 104.8 102.8 105.5 101.9 104.4 Capacity (percent of 2012 output) 2017 2018 2019 135.9 136.9 138.8 136.0 137.0 136.0 137.2 136.1 137.3 136.2 137.5 136.2 137.7 136.3 137.8 136.4 138.0 136.5 138.2 136.6 138.3 136.7 138.5 136.8 138.7 136.0 137.1 136.2 137.5 136.4 138.0 136.7 138.5 136.3 137.8 Utilization (percent) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 82.1 83.5 80.6 80.6 76.7 82.8 83.0 80.8 80.4 76.0 83.1 82.3 80.4 80.6 75.6 82.5 82.0 80.4 80.8 75.1 82.6 81.9 80.7 80.4 74.4 82.7 80.7 80.1 80.2 73.7 82.7 79.9 80.1 80.0 73.2 83.1 81.3 80.3 79.2 72.7 83.3 80.7 79.6 79.2 72.4 83.4 81.0 80.4 78.7 71.9 83.7 80.7 80.6 78.2 71.6 83.4 80.7 80.8 77.5 71.7 82.7 82.9 80.6 80.5 76.1 82.6 81.6 80.4 80.5 74.4 83.0 80.6 80.0 79.5 72.8 83.5 80.8 80.6 78.1 71.7 83.0 81.5 80.4 79.6 73.8 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 72.0 73.6 74.9 78.3 79.3 71.9 73.7 75.5 78.8 78.9 72.4 73.8 75.4 78.3 78.7 72.5 73.2 75.7 78.4 79.0 72.8 73.3 76.4 78.5 78.6 73.6 73.7 75.8 78.5 78.7 73.3 73.9 76.5 78.0 78.4 73.5 73.6 76.8 78.2 78.7 73.5 74.2 76.8 77.3 78.6 73.3 74.3 77.5 78.3 78.2 73.6 75.0 77.4 78.8 78.0 73.2 74.9 77.8 78.8 79.0 72.1 73.7 75.3 78.5 79.0 73.0 73.4 76.0 78.5 78.8 73.4 73.9 76.7 77.9 78.6 73.4 74.7 77.5 78.6 78.4 73.0 73.9 76.4 78.4 78.7 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 78.4 78.5 65.8 68.1 72.7 78.5 78.0 65.8 68.2 72.8 79.0 77.8 64.7 69.1 73.3 79.3 77.0 64.4 69.8 73.0 79.0 76.6 63.8 70.9 73.1 79.1 76.2 63.7 70.9 73.2 79.0 75.4 64.8 71.4 73.6 78.6 74.6 65.6 71.6 73.9 78.8 72.1 66.3 71.7 74.1 78.5 71.7 66.5 71.9 74.5 78.8 70.1 67.3 72.0 74.2 78.9 67.8 67.2 72.5 74.7 78.6 78.1 65.5 68.5 73.0 79.2 76.6 64.0 70.5 73.1 78.8 74.0 65.5 71.6 73.9 78.7 69.9 67.0 72.1 74.5 78.8 74.6 65.5 70.7 73.6 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 75.3 74.9 74.2 76.1 75.5 75.5 75.2 75.0 75.7 75.2 75.0 75.1 75.7 76.0 74.9 75.3 74.7 75.6 76.0 74.5 74.9 74.9 75.8 75.9 74.4 75.0 75.1 76.0 75.7 74.5 74.8 74.3 76.3 76.2 74.5 74.6 75.0 76.0 76.0 74.1 74.5 75.1 76.0 75.6 74.3 74.2 75.1 76.0 75.6 74.3 74.6 75.1 76.6 75.4 74.3 75.2 75.1 76.4 75.2 74.5 75.2 75.0 75.0 75.9 75.2 75.1 74.9 75.8 75.9 74.4 74.6 74.8 76.1 75.9 74.3 74.7 75.1 76.3 75.4 74.4 74.9 75.0 75.8 75.8 74.6 2017 2018 2019 74.7 74.7 75.8 74.7 75.7 74.3 75.6 75.1 75.9 74.8 75.1 74.8 75.5 74.6 75.7 74.4 76.0 74.2 76.1 75.2 75.9 75.3 76.0 75.2 76.5 74.6 75.3 74.9 75.5 74.4 76.0 75.2 76.2 74.8 75.7 IP (percent change)2 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 14 Table 13 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, High-Technology Industries1 AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Excluding Selected Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual -.1 .3 .2 -.3 -.7 .9 .0 .2 .0 -.6 .4 .0 -.1 .1 -.3 -.3 .2 -.1 .5 -.2 .3 .6 .5 -.2 -.6 .2 -.9 -.5 -.1 -.5 .5 -.7 .3 -.5 -.4 .8 1.9 .4 -.5 -.1 .6 -.5 -.5 .3 -.4 .7 .6 1.2 -.4 -.5 .7 -.3 .2 -.2 -.5 .1 .1 .6 -.5 -.1 5.2 2.2 .6 .5 -5.8 2.2 .8 .3 1.5 -4.3 6.3 -.3 .9 -3.2 -4.3 7.6 2.5 5.6 -2.6 -4.4 4.2 3.1 1.1 1.0 -3.9 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .7 .5 .2 .3 .1 -.2 .2 .6 .6 -.1 .8 -.3 -.6 -.2 .2 .4 -.8 .5 .1 .4 .4 -.1 .8 .1 -.2 .9 .0 -.9 .4 .3 -.3 .2 .8 -.4 -.1 -.1 -.3 .0 .2 .3 .1 .5 .0 -2.1 -.3 -.3 .0 .9 1.2 -.1 .5 .7 .2 1.0 -.2 -.5 -.1 .7 .6 1.1 2.6 1.3 1.9 4.8 3.2 6.0 -4.4 2.1 1.2 1.8 1.8 .6 2.0 -3.0 .6 -.6 2.7 5.3 2.7 .1 .3 .2 1.7 2.6 1.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -.6 -.3 -2.4 1.1 -.2 1.0 -.5 -.7 .2 -.5 .0 -.4 -1.7 .6 1.1 .6 -.8 -.9 .3 -.4 .1 -.7 -1.1 1.4 .2 .1 -.3 -.4 .1 .2 -.1 -.5 1.1 .4 .5 .1 -1.6 1.2 .3 .5 .3 -4.5 .7 .2 .0 -.6 1.2 .3 -.3 .7 .4 -1.0 .3 .0 -.1 .0 -2.8 .3 .9 .5 2.9 -2.6 -20.5 7.1 1.8 4.0 -6.9 -11.7 7.4 1.6 1.0 -12.8 6.1 5.1 4.5 -.5 -14.9 6.0 .8 4.1 1.8 -4.3 -11.5 4.9 2.8 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 .6 -.1 -.5 -.6 .7 .2 .6 .9 -.4 -.7 -.5 .4 .9 -.3 -.8 .7 -.2 .1 -.5 .2 .2 .0 .3 -.5 -.2 -.1 .2 .3 -.4 .3 .3 -.5 .1 .6 .2 -.4 .7 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 .5 .3 -.4 -.2 .2 -.2 .0 -.4 .1 .5 .3 .8 -.6 -.2 .3 .3 -.1 -.5 1.0 3.7 3.3 2.9 -3.3 -2.1 2.1 1.4 5.4 -5.3 -2.2 -.1 .8 2.0 -.3 1.0 1.7 2.8 2.7 -4.9 .4 2.8 1.8 2.9 -1.1 -2.1 2017 2018 2019 -.2 -.3 -.6 -.4 .5 .6 .5 .9 1.2 .0 -.8 .1 .6 -.1 .4 -.4 .8 .0 .2 1.5 .3 .5 .6 .4 .1 1.2 2.5 5.0 5.2 -1.6 4.7 7.6 4.6 1.5 4.1 IP (2012=100) 2017 2018 2019 101.7 104.6 108.5 101.4 105.0 101.9 105.6 102.9 106.8 102.9 105.9 103.0 106.5 102.8 107.0 102.4 107.9 102.3 108.1 103.9 108.4 104.4 109.0 104.9 109.1 101.7 105.1 102.9 106.4 102.5 107.6 104.4 108.8 102.9 107.1 Capacity (percent of 2012 output) 2017 2018 2019 134.7 135.7 138.5 134.7 135.9 134.8 136.1 134.8 136.3 134.8 136.5 134.9 136.8 134.9 137.0 135.0 137.2 135.1 137.5 135.2 137.7 135.4 138.0 135.5 138.2 134.7 135.9 134.8 136.5 135.0 137.2 135.4 138.0 135.0 136.9 Utilization (percent) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 83.6 84.5 81.8 81.5 78.8 84.1 84.1 81.8 81.4 78.2 84.2 83.8 81.5 81.4 77.9 83.7 83.6 81.2 81.7 77.7 83.7 83.8 81.5 81.4 77.2 83.6 82.7 80.9 81.3 76.7 83.7 81.9 81.0 80.8 76.3 84.1 83.1 81.2 80.3 76.2 84.3 82.4 80.6 80.5 75.8 84.6 82.6 81.5 80.0 75.3 84.8 82.1 81.6 79.8 74.9 84.5 81.9 81.9 79.4 74.7 84.0 84.1 81.7 81.4 78.3 83.6 83.4 81.2 81.5 77.2 84.0 82.5 80.9 80.5 76.1 84.6 82.2 81.6 79.7 75.0 84.1 83.0 81.4 80.8 76.6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 75.2 77.0 77.5 80.4 80.6 75.0 77.1 78.0 80.8 80.5 75.6 76.9 77.6 80.6 80.5 75.8 76.4 77.9 80.6 80.7 76.1 76.3 78.6 80.7 80.4 76.8 76.3 77.9 80.9 80.6 76.6 76.6 78.6 80.5 80.4 76.6 76.4 78.6 80.5 80.5 76.7 76.8 78.6 78.8 80.1 76.5 76.9 79.4 79.6 79.9 76.9 77.4 79.6 80.3 79.7 76.5 77.4 80.1 80.7 80.4 75.3 77.0 77.7 80.6 80.6 76.3 76.3 78.2 80.7 80.6 76.6 76.6 78.6 79.9 80.3 76.6 77.2 79.7 80.2 80.0 76.2 76.8 78.5 80.4 80.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 79.9 81.1 69.9 70.7 75.3 80.5 80.8 69.3 71.0 75.0 80.5 80.6 68.1 71.6 75.9 80.9 79.9 67.5 72.0 75.6 80.9 79.4 66.7 73.2 75.8 81.0 79.2 66.5 73.5 75.9 80.9 78.8 67.3 74.0 76.3 81.1 77.5 68.1 74.4 76.7 81.3 74.0 68.7 74.6 76.6 80.9 74.8 69.0 74.5 77.0 81.3 73.9 69.4 74.6 76.9 81.3 71.7 69.8 75.4 77.2 80.3 80.8 69.1 71.1 75.4 80.9 79.5 66.9 72.9 75.8 81.1 76.7 68.0 74.3 76.5 81.2 73.5 69.4 74.8 77.0 80.9 77.6 68.4 73.3 76.2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 77.6 77.3 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.6 77.7 78.5 78.6 75.8 77.1 77.9 79.1 78.2 75.1 77.6 77.7 79.1 77.8 75.3 77.6 77.7 79.3 77.3 75.1 77.4 77.8 79.4 77.0 75.3 77.5 77.3 79.4 77.4 75.4 77.1 77.8 79.2 77.3 75.3 76.9 78.1 79.3 77.0 75.2 77.0 78.0 79.2 76.7 75.2 77.3 78.1 79.8 76.2 75.0 77.4 78.3 79.6 75.8 75.7 77.4 77.6 78.5 78.6 75.8 77.5 77.7 79.3 77.4 75.2 77.2 77.7 79.3 77.2 75.3 77.2 78.1 79.5 76.2 75.3 77.3 77.8 79.2 77.4 75.4 2017 2018 2019 75.5 77.1 78.3 75.2 77.3 75.6 77.6 76.3 78.4 76.3 77.6 76.3 77.9 76.2 78.1 75.8 78.6 75.7 78.6 76.8 78.7 77.2 79.0 77.4 78.9 75.5 77.3 76.3 77.9 75.9 78.4 77.1 78.9 76.2 78.1 IP (percent change)2 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 15 Table 14 H ISTORICAL S TATISTICS FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , C APACITY, AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual IP (percent change)3 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 -.2 .6 -.1 -.3 -.6 1.1 .0 .5 -.2 -.6 .7 -.3 -.4 .3 -.3 -.5 .3 .0 .4 -.2 .4 .4 .7 -.6 -.6 .4 -1.2 -.7 .0 -.5 .4 -.8 .0 -.2 -.2 1.0 2.3 .6 -1.0 -.4 .6 -.6 -.5 .3 -.2 .7 .7 1.4 -.5 -.6 .8 -.1 .4 -.5 -.2 .1 .2 .4 -.8 .1 6.3 3.4 .6 .3 -6.9 2.7 -.2 .3 .8 -4.4 6.7 -.5 .0 -3.8 -4.5 8.2 4.1 6.8 -4.6 -4.1 5.0 3.5 1.3 .7 -4.7 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .7 .4 -.1 .6 .8 -.2 -.1 .7 .7 -.4 .7 .0 -.2 -.6 -.1 .2 -1.0 .4 .2 .5 .5 -.1 .8 .3 -.5 1.1 .3 -.8 .1 .3 -.4 .0 1.0 -.5 -.4 .1 -.6 .4 .3 .5 .1 .7 -.1 -1.3 -.1 -.4 .0 1.0 1.4 -.4 .4 .9 -.1 .8 .0 -.6 -.3 .6 .1 1.5 3.2 .5 1.5 5.3 3.1 5.4 -3.9 3.1 1.3 -.1 2.4 .0 3.8 -2.1 -.2 -.9 2.9 4.8 5.0 .6 .4 .0 2.0 3.1 1.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -.6 -.5 -3.1 1.0 .1 .3 -.8 -.2 -.3 .1 .6 -.5 -2.0 1.1 .6 .5 -1.3 -.8 .8 -.6 .0 -.7 -1.1 1.4 .1 .5 -.7 -.3 -.1 .0 .1 -1.1 1.5 .5 .7 -.4 -1.2 1.2 .0 .3 .3 -3.6 .8 .0 .4 -.6 -.4 .1 .1 .6 .3 -2.2 .9 -.1 -.3 .1 -3.3 -.2 .3 .7 3.1 -4.2 -24.4 5.5 2.5 4.7 -9.8 -11.6 9.6 -.2 1.0 -14.5 8.1 3.7 4.2 -1.1 -20.7 6.6 .5 4.0 1.8 -5.9 -13.9 5.1 2.5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 .8 -.4 -1.2 -.5 .5 .3 .5 1.1 -.6 -.4 -.6 -.2 .8 .3 -.3 .5 -.5 -.2 -.1 -.4 -.5 .2 .2 -.1 -.1 .1 .2 .3 -.4 .3 -.1 -1.1 .4 .7 .1 -.2 1.0 -.5 -.3 -.4 -.1 .1 .0 -.4 .2 -.5 .0 -.1 -.1 .2 .8 -.1 .8 -.2 .0 .9 .0 -.3 -.3 .3 4.9 2.9 -1.0 -3.0 -.3 -.3 -.7 3.7 -1.2 -2.7 -1.5 -.9 1.2 .1 .4 .7 1.6 .5 -2.7 1.3 2.3 .5 .8 -.7 -1.0 2017 2018 2019 .4 -.5 -.9 .2 1.5 -.5 -.1 1.1 .6 -.4 -1.0 .1 .7 -.2 .3 -.2 .5 -.2 .2 1.3 -.1 .2 .3 -.1 .8 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.2 -2.1 3.5 5.0 2.6 1.1 2.3 IP (2012=100) 2017 2018 2019 100.3 101.0 103.8 100.5 102.5 100.0 102.4 101.1 103.0 100.6 102.0 100.8 102.6 100.5 103.0 100.3 103.5 100.1 103.8 101.4 103.6 101.6 103.9 101.5 104.7 100.2 102.0 100.8 102.5 100.3 103.4 101.5 104.1 100.7 103.1 Capacity (percent of 2012 output) 2017 2018 2019 134.2 135.1 136.8 134.3 135.2 134.3 135.3 134.4 135.5 134.5 135.6 134.5 135.8 134.6 135.9 134.6 136.1 134.7 136.2 134.8 136.3 134.9 136.5 135.0 136.6 134.3 135.2 134.5 135.6 134.6 136.1 134.9 136.5 134.6 135.8 Utilization (percent) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 82.3 83.5 80.5 79.9 76.1 83.0 83.2 80.6 79.7 75.6 83.3 82.6 80.0 79.8 75.3 82.5 82.4 79.9 80.0 75.1 82.5 82.5 80.2 79.4 74.6 82.5 81.2 79.4 79.3 74.2 82.5 80.2 79.3 79.0 74.0 83.0 81.8 79.6 78.2 73.6 83.1 81.0 79.0 78.3 73.4 83.3 81.3 80.0 77.9 72.9 83.7 80.9 80.1 77.4 72.7 83.4 80.8 80.3 76.7 72.8 82.9 83.1 80.4 79.8 75.7 82.5 82.0 79.8 79.6 74.7 82.9 81.0 79.3 78.5 73.7 83.5 81.0 80.1 77.3 72.8 82.9 81.8 79.9 78.8 74.2 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 73.3 75.0 75.3 78.7 79.3 73.1 75.0 75.9 79.2 78.9 73.6 75.1 75.8 78.7 78.7 73.8 74.3 76.1 78.8 78.9 74.2 74.3 76.8 79.0 78.4 75.0 74.6 76.2 78.9 78.5 74.7 74.6 77.0 78.4 78.1 74.9 74.2 77.3 78.6 78.4 74.9 74.8 77.2 77.4 78.2 74.7 74.8 77.9 78.4 77.8 75.0 75.5 77.9 78.9 77.7 74.6 75.4 78.3 78.8 78.8 73.3 75.0 75.7 78.9 79.0 74.3 74.4 76.4 78.9 78.6 74.8 74.6 77.1 78.1 78.3 74.8 75.2 78.0 78.7 78.1 74.3 74.8 76.8 78.7 78.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 78.2 78.6 65.6 67.7 72.2 78.4 78.0 65.5 67.7 72.4 78.8 77.6 64.3 68.6 73.0 79.1 76.7 64.0 69.3 72.7 79.0 76.2 63.4 70.4 72.9 79.4 75.7 63.3 70.4 73.0 79.3 74.9 64.4 71.0 73.5 79.0 74.0 65.3 71.1 73.8 79.2 71.4 65.9 71.3 74.1 78.7 71.2 66.2 71.5 74.5 79.0 69.8 66.9 71.6 74.3 79.0 67.6 66.9 72.0 74.8 78.5 78.1 65.2 68.0 72.5 79.2 76.2 63.5 70.0 72.8 79.2 73.4 65.2 71.1 73.8 78.9 69.5 66.7 71.7 74.6 78.9 74.3 65.1 70.2 73.4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 75.4 75.1 74.5 76.2 75.6 75.6 75.4 75.3 75.8 75.2 75.1 75.3 75.9 76.1 75.0 75.5 75.0 75.7 76.0 74.6 75.0 75.1 75.9 76.0 74.4 75.1 75.3 76.2 75.8 74.5 74.9 74.5 76.4 76.3 74.6 74.8 75.2 76.1 76.1 74.2 74.6 75.3 76.1 75.7 74.3 74.2 75.4 76.0 75.7 74.4 74.8 75.3 76.7 75.5 74.3 75.4 75.4 76.5 75.2 74.5 75.4 75.3 75.2 76.0 75.3 75.2 75.1 75.9 75.9 74.5 74.8 75.0 76.2 76.0 74.4 74.8 75.4 76.4 75.5 74.4 75.0 75.2 75.9 75.9 74.6 2017 2018 2019 74.7 74.8 75.9 74.8 75.8 74.4 75.7 75.2 76.0 74.8 75.2 74.9 75.6 74.7 75.8 74.5 76.1 74.3 76.2 75.2 76.0 75.3 76.1 75.2 76.6 74.7 75.4 75.0 75.6 74.5 76.0 75.3 76.2 74.8 75.8 1. Refer to note on cover page. 2. Selected high-technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages. 16 Table 15 I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : R ELIABILITY E STIMATES Seasonally adjusted Item Annualized change 2018 Q3 Q4 2012=100 Percent change 2018 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2019 Jan. 2018 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2019 Jan. Total index 85th percentile Current estimate 15th percentile 4.95 4.87 4.82 5.36 4.57 3.98 108.82 108.82 108.82 109.08 109.02 108.96 109.44 109.33 109.22 110.19 109.98 109.81 110.41 110.08 109.81 109.86 109.44 109.02 .86 .86 .86 .23 .18 .13 .38 .28 .19 .78 .60 .49 .39 .09 -.15 -.26 -.58 -.92 Manufacturing (SIC) 85th percentile Current estimate 15th percentile 3.92 3.83 3.76 3.21 2.60 1.91 104.93 104.93 104.93 105.23 105.17 105.11 105.16 105.03 104.91 105.50 105.32 105.12 106.40 106.15 105.86 105.62 105.23 104.80 .53 .53 .53 .29 .23 .18 -.04 -.13 -.24 .37 .27 .15 .97 .79 .64 -.59 -.86 -1.16 Mining 85th percentile Current estimate 15th percentile 17.83 17.66 17.48 13.77 11.52 9.27 126.53 126.53 126.53 127.78 127.63 127.46 128.32 127.94 127.51 129.88 129.26 128.52 132.63 131.21 129.86 132.89 131.32 129.55 2.20 2.20 2.20 .99 .87 .74 .52 .24 -.06 1.52 1.04 .64 2.39 1.51 .78 1.02 .08 -.81 Electric and gas utilities 85th percentile Current estimate 15th percentile -5.63 -5.65 -5.68 11.41 8.06 6.29 105.41 105.41 105.41 104.07 104.05 104.03 107.60 107.54 107.47 110.56 109.92 109.61 104.30 102.36 101.16 104.66 102.78 101.72 1.13 1.13 1.13 -1.27 -1.28 -1.30 3.41 3.35 3.28 3.02 2.21 1.98 -5.09 -6.88 -8.26 2.21 .41 -1.36 The reliability measures show the likely range of values for the IP indexes after their fifth and final monthly revision. The 15th (85th) percentile estimate is equal to the current estimate plus an amount such that the equivalent measure revised by a lower (higher) amount for only 15 percent of the months since 2008. More information is available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/g17 technical qa.htm 17 E XPLANATORY N OTE month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available from the Data Download Program on the Board’s website. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. A Im A Im−1 s P P I p I p P m m−1 × P m m = Im−1 pm−1 Im−1 pm The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the monthly G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 6 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 6/10 percentage point (0.06 x 10% = 0.6%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s website provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweightssa.txt). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2012. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries— logging and newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 300 individual series based on the 2012 NAICS codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.htm. Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent five months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 74 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to 85 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 95 percent in the third month, 96 percent in the fourth month, 97 percent in the fifth month, and 97 percent in the sixth month. Data availability by data type in early 2017 is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2017; the numbers may not sum because of rounding.) Month of estimate Source Data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are typically obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production and unit values or sales) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Physical product 32 44 54 55 56 56 Production-worker hours 41 41 41 41 41 41 IP data received 74 85 95 96 97 97 IP data estimated 26 15 5 4 3 3 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first row of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for more than one-half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (32 percent out of a total of 56 percent). Of the 27 percent, about four-fifths (25 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the fourth estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the third estimate of the last month of a quarter, the fourth estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fifth estimate of the first month of a quarter. Seasonal Adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-13 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through January 2018; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least December 2017. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Additional documentation and X-13 specifications can be found on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.htm. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see the Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 18 0.27 percent during the 1987–2017 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.22 percentage point during the 1987–2017 period. In most cases (about 85 percent), the direction of the change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This survey of large companies reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the annual Survey of Plant Capacity (the primary source of factory operating rates through 2006, after which it was discontinued) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve (now based on the QSPC) roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the Census utilization surveys. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. C APACITY U TILIZATION Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. Perspective. Over the 1972–2017 period, the average total industry utilization rate was 79.8 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate was 78.3 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 89 detailed industries (71 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the NAICS definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-technology industries and manufacturing excluding high-technology industries. References. The release for the annual revision that was published on March 23, 2018, is available on the Board’s website (www.federal reserve.gov/releases/g17/revisions/Current/DefaultRev.htm). A summary of the annual revision that incorporated back to 1972 production and capacity indexes reclassified according to the North American Industry Classification System is available in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 89 (April 2003), pp. 151–176. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/CapitalStockDocLatest.pdf. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (for example, paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 27 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity (QSPC); these industries account for about 64 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 9 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s website (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Meth/MethCap.htm). Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005, March 2006, May 2007, August 2008, August 2009) or in online staff studies (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2010/industrial10.pdf, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2012/industrial12.pdf, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/articles/rev2013/industrial13.pdf). Release Schedule The G.17 release on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization is published at 9:15 a.m. on: 2019: January 18, February 15, March 15, April 16, May 15, June 14, July 16, August 15, September 17, October 17, November 15, December 17. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. This release schedule is available on the Board’s website at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with 19
