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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) 2004 Historical and Annual Revision For release at 10:00 a.m. (EST) December 22, 2004 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2004 Annual Revision The Federal Reserve has revised the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization for the period from January 1972 to November 2004. Overall, the changes to total industrial production are small. Measured from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2004, industrial output is now reported to have increased a little less than shown previously. Production expanded more slowly in 2000 than indicated in the earlier estimates, while the contraction in 2001 was a little less steep. The rise in output in 2002 was slightly stronger than reported earlier. Although the level of IP was a bit lower in the third quarter of 2004 than previously reported, the rate of industrial capacity utilization—the ratio of production to capacity—was revised upward. At 78.2 percent, the utilization rate for total industry is 0.9 percentage point higher than previously reported but still 2.9 percentage points below its 1972–2003 average. The current figures place the operating rate in manufacturing for the fourth quarter of 2003 and the third quarter of 2004 about 1/2 percentage point above their earlier estimates. Excluding selected high-technology industries, capacity utilization in manufacturing in 2003 and 2004 was little revised on balance. Capacity utilization rates at mines and utilities for the third quarter of 2004 are now about 2 percentage points higher than reported earlier. The revision indicates that industrial capacity expanded at a slower rate in 2002 and 2004 than estimated previously. Capacity is now reported to have declined a bit in 2003; previously, a small increase had been reported. The current figures for capacity in 2000 and 2001 indicate a slightly stronger rate of increase than the earlier estimates. The updated measures incorporate newly available and more comprehensive source data. In addition, the revision introduced improved methods for compiling sixteen monthly production series and one new capacity series. The annual source data are generally for 2002 and 2003, and the modified methods affect indexes largely from 1972 forward. The main data source introduced in this year’s annual IP revision is the U.S. Census Bureau’s recently issued 2002 Census of Manufactures. Data introduced from other Census Bureau publications include the 2002 Census of Services and the 2003 Services Annual Survey (for publishing) and selected 2003 Current Industrial Reports. Additional government source data include new annual data on minerals for 2002 and 2003 from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and updated deflators from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In addition, the new monthly production estimates reflect updated seasonal factors and the inclusion of monthly source data that became available (or were revised) after the closing of the regular four-month reporting window. The capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates were calculated using the revised production indexes; results from the Census Bureau’s 2003 Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC) for the fourth quarter of the year; and newly available data on industrial capacity from the USGS, the Energy Information Agency of the Department of Energy, and other organizations. RESULTS OF THE REVISION Total industrial production for the third quarter of 2004 is currently reported to be 115.9 percent of output in 1997 (table 1A), and the capacity index now stands at 148.2 percent of output in 1997 (table 1B); both indexes are lower than reported previously (chart 1). However, because of the larger downward revision to capacity than to production, the utilization rate for total industry in the third quarter of 2004 was higher than earlier reports suggested. Tables 2 and 3 show the revised rates of change of industrial production for market groups, industry groups, special aggregates, and selected detail for the years 2000 through 2004. Tables 4, 5, and 6 show the revised figures for capacity utilization, capacity, and electric power use. The tables also show the difference between the revised and earlier rates of change. For capacity utilization, the tables show the difference between revised and previous rates for the final quarter of the year (the third quarter was used for 2004). Tables 7, 8, and 9 report the revised production, capacity, and utilization series for manufacturing, for total industry excluding selected high-technology industries, and for manufacturing excluding selected high-technology industries. Industrial Production The revision indicates that the overall path of industrial production is much the same as stated earlier. The most significant feature of this revision, the incorporation of the 2002 Census of Manufactures, had little effect on the top-line estimates. Relative to earlier reports, the current estimates for manufacturing IP indicate a more moderate upward trajectory for 2003 and 2004. Like the revisions to total industrial production, the revisions to manufacturing output in earlier years were very small. Across industry groups, the revision path indicates that the output of durable goods manufacturers followed a generally lower trajectory in recent years than the previous estimates suggested. Downward revisions to the indexes for the computer and electronic products industry, the miscellaneous manufacturing industry, the fabricated metal products industry, the machinery industry, and the wood products industry contributed to the downward revision in 2003 and 2004. Overall, the index for nondurable manufacturing is little changed from the previous estimates. In 2004, lower indexes for printing and support; chemicals; plastics and rubber products; and apparel and leather outweighed upward revisions to the indexes for petroleum and coal products; food, beverage, and tobacco products; textile and product mills; and paper. The current revision indicates lower output in recent years for the industries that have historically been defined as manufacturers (namely publishing and logging) but are classified elsewhere under NAICS (North American Industry Classification System). In 2003 and 2004, the rates of change are about 4 percentage points lower than previously published. Regarding a few special aggregates (table 3), the output of selected high-technology industries—computers and peripheral equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related components—is now lower in recent years than previously estimated. Production is reported to have fallen somewhat more steeply in 2001 and to have risen somewhat less in 2002, 2003, and 2004. Relative to earlier estimates, the output of computers is now estimated to have increased much more slowly in 2002 and 2004 and more quickly in 2003. The index for communications equipment is currently reported to have declined at a faster pace in 2002 than was reported earlier; the rebound in 2003 is now shown to be markedly stronger. The expansion of semiconductor output is now estimated to have been much more moderate in 2003 and somewhat stronger in 2004 than earlier estimates suggested. The current revision finds the overall swings in the output of motor vehicles and parts in recent years to have been a little wider than in earlier reports. Relative to earlier estimates, the index for motor vehicles and parts is now reported to have risen somewhat more in 2002 and 2003 and to have declined a bit more in 2000 and in 2004; industry output is now reported to have declined less in 2001 than recorded earlier. Production by Market Groups Among major market groups, the production index for final products and nonindustrial supplies is little changed from earlier estimates for recent years. The overall path of this index shows a rise in 2000, a dropback in 2001, and then increasingly large gains in the subsequent years. This revision places the output of consumer goods in recent years generally close to their earlier estimates; the decline in output in 2001 is now estimated to be 0.7 percentage point less than previously reported; a large upward revision to the index for home electronics is partly responsible. The production of business equipment is now reported to be somewhat weaker in the 2000-04 period, on balance, than in the 2 earlier estimates. Production of defense and space equipment is now reported to have risen a bit less in 2001 than earlier reports suggested, but the overall contour of the index still shows solid gains since 2001. On balance since 2000, the index for construction supplies is a little stronger than reported earlier. However, the index for business supplies is weaker over the same time period. Because of downward revisions to the production in both the energy and non-energy categories, the current revision indicates weaker output of materials in recent years, particularly in 2003 and 2004, than was reported earlier. Capacity The general contour of manufacturing capacity shows a slightly more rapid acceleration during the second half of the 1990s and a sharper deceleration since then. The revised capacity indexes for durable goods industries are the principal contributors to the changes in the contour of manufacturing capacity. The current estimates for nondurable manufactures over the same time period are, on balance, little changed from earlier reports. Among selected high-technology industries, the overall picture of rapidly expanding capacity in the late 1990s followed by more-moderate increases still remains. However, the revision suggests a slower path of expansion in the 2000–04 period than indicated previously. Excluding high-technology industries, manufacturing capacity contracted slightly in 2002 and 2003; the estimate for 2004 was revised little. Capacity at mines is now estimated to have decreased in four of the past five years and has declined, on balance, more than previously estimated. In contrast, capacity at electric and gas utilities accelerated sharply from 2000 to 2003, although the current measures show, on balance, a slower rate of expansion than previous estimates. For 2004, the increase in capacity at utilities moderated a bit from the pace seen over the preceding four years. The revisions to the capacity estimates for stage-of-process groups occurred across all groups but were most pronounced in the category for primary and semifinished goods. For 2002 through 2004, the current capacity measures reflect lower rates of change than previously reported for each stage-of-process group. Capacity Utilization The revised rates of capacity utilization are somewhat higher than the previous estimates for recent years, owing mainly to the downward revision to capacity. For the fourth quarter of 2003 and the third quarter of 2004, the revised utilization rates for total industry are about 1 percentage point higher than earlier estimates. About one-half of this increase is accounted for by revisions to the factory operating rate, which is now estimated to be 77.0 percent in the third quarter of 2004. Higher utilization rates for selected high-technology industries in 2004 contributed heavily to the upward revision in manufacturing. The factory operating rate remains about 3 percentage points below its 1972–2003 average even though it rose 4.4 percentage points between its trough in the final quarter of 2001 and the third quarter of 2004. Within manufacturing, the current estimates for durable and nondurable manufacturers in 2003 and 2004 are higher than stated previously. Over the same period, the utilization rates for other (non-NAICS) manufacturers are lower, particularly in 2004, than earlier estimates suggested. The operating rate among the selected high-technology industries was 69.9 percent in the third quarter of 2004—1.8 percentage points above the previously reported pace and 11.6 percentage points above its trough in the second quarter of 2002. On balance for recent years, the current revision places utilization in the semiconductor industry at a higher rate than reported earlier but indicates a lower rate for communications equipment. On balance, operating rates in the computer industry are not much changed. For recent years, the current revision places the utilization rates for mines and for gas and electric utilities at higher levels than reported earlier. The upward revisions to the utilization rates for utilities reflect downward revisions to the capacity estimates for electricity generation. For the third quarter of 2004, the utilization rate at mines was 86.3 percent, and the utilization rate at gas and electric utilities was 84.0 percent. Both measures are below their 1972–2003 averages. TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF THE REVISION The revision incorporates updated comprehensive annual data and revised monthly source data used in the estimation of production, capacity, and utilization. As noted earlier, this revision includes information drawn from the 3 recently released 2002 Census of Manufactures. Additionally, this revision incorporates the 2003 Survey of Plant Capacity, other annual industry reports, recent information on prices, and revised monthly source data on physical products and on labor and electricity inputs. Along with the individual production series and seasonal factors, the annual value-added weights used in aggregating the indexes to market and industry groups were also updated. Changes to Benchmark Indexes The benchmark indexes for manufacturing—defined for each six-digit NAICS industry as nominal gross output divided by a price index—were modified in this revision. The principal change to the indexes was the inclusion of new information from the 2002 Census of Manufactures and revisions to the estimates from the 2001 Annual Survey of Manufactures. In addition, the benchmark indexes incorporated newly available price indexes on a NAICS basis from the BEA. The new price data were not significantly different from the estimates that had been used previously. The calculation of nominal gross output for benchmark index was also revised for 1997 to the present. Previously, nominal gross output for an industry was defined to equal cost of materials plus value added. The updated methodology subtracts from that figure the cost of resold goods (those goods purchased by a manufacturer and then resold without any material transformation). Changes to Individual Production Series With this revision, the monthly production indicators for some series have changed. The source data for production indexes for the following eleven industries, which constituted 6.6 percent of IP in 2003, have been changed over their histories from electric power use to production-worker hours. (1) Other animal food (NAICS 311119) (2) Soft drink and ice (31211) (3) Wood container and pallet (32192) (4) Paving, roofing, and other petroleum and coal products (32412,9) (5) Pesticide and other agricultural chemicals (32532) (6) Concrete and product (32732–9) (7) Forging and stamping (3321) (8) Coating, engraving, heat treating, and allied activities (3328) (9) Motor vehicle metal stamping (33637) (10) Household and institutional furniture and kitchen cabinet (3371) (11) Medical equipment and supplies (3391) The decision to switch the monthly indicators for these series, listed below, resulted from a deterioration in the sample of utilities that report for these industries as well as a review of the historical annual relationships between the output benchmarks and the two corresponding inputs to production. This revision also incorporates new physical product indicators for five industries. (1) Aluminum foundries (NAICS 331521,4) (2) Machine tools (333512,3) (3) Engine manufacturing (333618) (4) Mattress manufacturing (33791) (5) Book publishing (51113) Previously, these industries were combined with other industries in single IP indexes and then estimated from production-worker hours. The additional series raise the total number of individual output indexes that make up industrial production to 300. 4 Aluminum foundries (NAICS 331521,4) were formerly grouped with other nonferrous foundries in a single IP index based on production-worker hours. For 1992 and forward, this revision establishes separate indexes for aluminum foundries and for other nonferrous foundries. The production indicator for the new index for aluminum foundries is a value-weighted aggregate of quarterly shipments of dies, permanent molds, sand castings, and other castings, for which the underlying data are obtained from the Aluminum Association. These data are available from 1994 forward; the indexes for 1992 and 1993 are estimated based on hours. Other nonferrous foundries (331522, 5, 8) is now a separate index based on production-worker hours. Machine tools (metal cutting and forming machinery, NAICS 333512,3) were formerly grouped with other metalworking machinery in a single IP index based on production-worker hours. For 1992 and forward, this revision introduces a new index for the machine tool industry that is based on quarterly shipments data from the Census Bureau’s Current Industrial Report on Metalworking Machinery (MQ333W). This report covers a variety of machine tools, including boring and drilling machines; gear-cutting machines; grinding and polishing machines; lathes; milling machines; machining centers; punching, shearing, bending, and forming machines; and presses. Both unit and revenue measures for shipments are used to construct a Fisher index of real shipments. An estimate of the change in inventories is then added to the shipments index to compute a production index. Manufacturers are assumed to want to hold inventories proportional to their expected shipments. The estimate of inventory change is computed as the sum of three components: a trend rate of stockbuilding; a portion of the adjustment to inventories that a manufacturer would need to make in order to reach a desired inventory level; and the impact on stocks of shipments not equaling expected shipments. Other metalworking machinery (333511, 4, 5, 6, 8) is now a separate index based on production-worker hours. Engines (NAICS 333618) were formerly grouped with power transmission equipment in a single IP index based on production-worker hours. For 1992 and forward, engines and power transmission equipment are separate indexes. The production indicator for the new index for engines is monthly diesel engine assemblies from Stark Communications, Inc. The remainder of the previous grouping—speed changers, drives, gears, and power transmission equipment (NAICS 333612,3)—is now a separate index and is still based on production-worker hours. Mattresses (NAICS 33791) were formerly grouped with blinds and shades (33792) in a single IP index called “Other furniture related product,” and estimates were based on production-worker hours. Under the current revision, mattress production for 1987 and forward is based on monthly unit sales data for mattresses and foundations from the International Sleep Products Association. The blinds and shades index continues to be based on production-worker hours. Book publishing (NAICS 51113) was formerly grouped with other publishing operations except newspapers (51112, 4, 9) in a single index called “Periodical, book and other publishers.” For 1987 and forward, book publishing is estimated separately from the other publishing operations. A Fisher index of real sales is constructed from sixteen separate categories of books and used as the indicator for the book publishing series. The underlying data, monthly gross revenue for book sales from the Association of American Publishers, are deflated by detailed producer price indexes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The new index for periodicals and other publishers is based on production-worker hours. The new physical-product-based production indexes constituted 1.4 percent of IP in 2003. The table below summarizes the type of data (measured as a percent of value added in 2003) available in each month of the four-month IP publication window. Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2003) Month of estimate Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 26.1 40.8 49.9 50.1 Production-worker hours 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 Electric power use 0.0 11.7 11.7 11.7 IP data received 60.8 87.2 96.4 96.6 IP data estimated 39.2 12.8 3.6 3.4 5 ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á Á Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á ÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁÁ Á Á Á 6 1998q1 1998q2 1998q3 1998q4 136.7 154.8 160.7 160.7 80.2 71.1 67.6 69.7 14,120.6 15,041.5 14,009.2 14,191.5 1999q1 1999q2 1999q3 1999q4 212.4 225.2 224.4 229.8 61.6 56.3 59.8 58.6 16,984.3 17,383.2 17,086.5 17,138.6 2000q1 2000q2 2000q3 2000q4 262.8 304.4 322.9 323.8 54.4 49.8 53.5 52.7 18,692.5 20,542.1 21,751.7 21,853.8 2001q1 2001q2 2001q3 2001q4 391.3 336.8 340.3 363.4 43.1 42.2 41.6 38.0 22,253.4 18,933.4 17,741.7 17,938.4 2002q1 2002q2 2002q3 2002q4 353.9 360.0 382.2 370.2 34.5 33.5 33.1 30.2 16,381.3 16,034.4 15,683.9 14,438.5 2003q1 2003q2 2003q3 2003q4 374.3 400.6 434.5 440.7 26.5 27.0 26.2 21.7 13,514.5 14,365.4 13,993.9 12,336.1 Annual Estimates (indexes are 1997=100) 1997 100.0 1998 153.2 1999 223.0 2000 303.5 2001 357.9 2002 366.6 2003 412.5 100.0 72.2 59.1 52.5 41.2 32.8 25.4 12,935.4 14,329.5 17,138.9 20,732.7 19,205.4 15,635.1 13,549.1 Quarterly Estimates (indexes are 1997=100) 1997q1 77.7 1997q2 88.8 1997q3 109.2 1997q4 124.3 108.0 97.4 97.5 97.9 10,767.2 11,634.7 13,824.5 15,423.2 Production index Price index Value of Production (millions of dollars) U.S. LAN Equipment, 1997 to 2003 The 2000 revision introduced a new IP series for the production of local area network (LAN) equipment (routers, switches, and hubs). The series is not published in the monthly statistical release, but it is included in the broader IP aggregate for communications equipment and updated on an ongoing basis (see the March 2001 Bulletin article). The table below updates the results for LAN equipment. LAN Equipment The revision incorporates refined methods for a few series. The coverage was broadened for some of the motor vehicles parts series to include more information for engines, brakes, transmissions, and axles. This revision also includes new methods for the production indicator for electronic computers; the new estimates incorporate a refined concordance between trade data from the Census Bureau and the source data for computer sales. The first estimate of output for a month is preliminary and is subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source data become available. As the table indicates, by the third revision (fourth month of estimate), the physical product content of IP is 50.1 percent. Changes to Individual Capacity Series The revision to the capacity indexes employs updated information for the publishing industry, for which there had been a gap in the collection of operating rates. Through 1998, the Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC), which covers the manufacturing sector, was conducted under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. The SIC system included the publishing industry in the manufacturing sector. In 1999, the SPC began to be conducted under NAICS, which excludes the publishing industry from the manufacturing sector. In 2002, the Census Bureau recommenced collection of publishing industry data under the SPC. The release of the 2003 SPC provided the Federal Reserve Board with two consecutive data points for the publishing industry and enabled the interpolation of industry information for the missing years 1999–2001. The revisions to the capacity indexes also incorporate the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s capital flow table for 1997. This table provides a detailed breakdown of the asset composition of industry investment. The Federal Reserve uses the capital flow table to estimate annual asset-by-industry investment flows—which is the first step in constructing measures of industry capital input. Before the current revision, the Federal Reserve used data for thirty-five asset categories; this revision adds a thirty-sixth, software investment. Finally, the capacity series for semiconductors was split into two components. One covers microprocessor units (MPUs) and the other covers non-MPU semiconductors, such as memory, logic, and integrated circuit chips. Weights for Aggregation The IP index is an annually weighted Fisher index. This revision uses information from the Census of Manufactures to obtain updated estimates of the industry value-added weights used in the aggregation of IP indexes and capacity utilization rates. The Federal Reserve derives estimates of value added for the electric and gas utility industries from annual revenue and expense data issued by other organizations. The weights for aggregation, expressed as unit value added, were estimated using the latest data on producer prices. Table 10 shows the annual value-added proportions incorporated in the IP index from 1996 through 2003. Revised Monthly Data This revision incorporates product data that become available after the regular four-month reporting window for monthly IP has closed. One example is the data on wine and tobacco issued by the Department of the Treasury’s Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau. These data are released with too great a lag to be published with monthly IP estimates; however, the data are available for inclusion in the annual revision. Revised Seasonal Factors Seasonal factors for all series were reestimated using data that extend into 2004. Factors for production-worker hours, which adjust for timing, holiday, and monthly seasonal patterns, were updated with data through September 2004 and were prorated to correspond with the seasonal factors for hours aggregated to the three-digit NAICS level. Factors for the electric power series were reestimated using data through June 2004. The updated factors for the physical product series, which include adjustments for holiday and workday patterns, used data through at least September 2004. Seasonal factors for unit motor vehicle assemblies have been updated, and projections through June 2005 are on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/mvsf.htm. 7 Data Availability and Publication Changes Files containing the revised data and the text and tables from this release are available on the Board’s web site, at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17, and on diskettes from Publications Services (telephone 202-452-3245). Updated data for all of the regularly issued series on industrial production, capacity, capacity utilization, and electric power use are available on the website. The revised data will also be available through the STAT-USA web site of the Department of Commerce (www.stat-usa.gov). Further information on these revisions is available from the Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197). A document with printed tables of the revised estimates of series shown in the G.17 release is available upon request to the Industrial Output Section, Mail Stop 82, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551. An expanded version of this release will be published in a forthcoming article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin. 8 1. Total industrial production, capacity, and utilization 160 150 Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 Revised Earlier 160 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 Capacity 110 110 100 100 90 90 Production 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Percent of capacity 87 82 65 87 82 Utilization 77 72 77 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 9 72 2. Manufacturing industrial production, capacity, and utilization 160 150 Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 Revised Earlier 160 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 Capacity 110 110 100 100 90 90 Production 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Percent of capacity 87 82 65 87 82 Utilization 77 72 77 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. Manufacturing consists of those industries in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries--logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing--that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. 10 72 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization Industrial production Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 120 115 110 105 120 115 110 105 Excluding high-technology 100 100 industries 95 95 90 90 85 85 Total IP 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Industrial production 2000 2002 65 2004 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 Total IP 10 10 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1988 1990 Industrial production 1992 1994 1996 -5 -10 1998 Ratio scale, 1997 = 100 2000 Capacity utilization 1,000 800 1,000 800 600 600 2002 -15 2004 Percent of capacity 100 95 100 Excluding 95 high-technology industries Semiconductors 400 400 85 85 200 75 75 65 65 Computers 200 100 80 60 100 80 Communications eq. 1998 2000 2002 2004 60 High-technology industries 55 1990 1995 2000 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 11 2005 55 4. Consumer goods Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 120 120 Revised Earlier 100 100 Detail: 2001 to present 114 112 80 80 110 108 106 104 102 2001 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 2002 2003 1998 2004 2000 Components of consumer goods 2002 2004 60 Ratio scale, 1997 output= 100 150 150 125 125 100 100 Nondurable Detail: 2001 to present 130 125 75 75 120 115 Durable 110 105 100 2001 50 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 2002 1998 2003 2004 2000 2002 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 12 2004 50 5. Equipment, total Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 150 130 150 Revised Earlier 130 110 110 90 90 70 Detail: 2001 to present 70 125 120 115 50 50 110 105 2001 30 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 2002 2003 1998 2004 100 2000 Components of equipment 2002 2004 30 Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 140 120 100 140 120 100 80 Detail: 2001 to present 60 80 130 Business 60 120 40 40 110 100 2001 20 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 2002 1998 Components of equipment 2003 2004 2000 2002 2004 20 Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 160 160 140 140 Defense and space 120 120 100 100 80 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 13 2004 80 6. Nonindustrial supplies Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 130 130 Revised Earlier 110 110 100 120 Detail: 2001 to present 120 90 90 110 110 80 105 100 70 70 90 115 1988 1990 1992 1994 2001 2002 2003 2004 1996 1998 Components of nonindustrial supplies 100 2000 2002 2004 70 Ratio scale, 1997 ouput = 100 130 130 110 110 100 90 90 90 Detail: 2001 to present 120 120 Construction 115 110 110 80 105 100 99 98 97 96 95 Other business 70 70 1988 1990 1992 1994 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 1996 1998 2000 95 2002 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 14 2004 70 7. Industrial materials Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 140 140 Revised Earlier 120 120 100 100 100 Detail: 2001 to present 90 125 120 120 80 80 80 115 110 110 70 2001 2002 2003 2004 60 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Components of industrial materials 105 2000 2002 2004 60 Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100 150 150 130 130 110 110 Energy 100 90 90 90 Detail: 2001 to present 130 130 80 125 Non-energy 120 120 70 70 110 110 105 60 100 99 98 97 96 95 50 50 70 115 1988 1990 1992 1994 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 1996 1998 2000 95 2002 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 15 2004 50 8. Capacity utilization by stage of process Capacity utilization 100 95 Percent of capacity 100 Revised Earlier 95 Crude processing 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Capacity utilization 2004 70 Percent of capacity 95 95 Primary and 90 90 semifinished processing 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Capacity utilization 2004 65 Percent of capacity 90 90 85 85 Finished processing 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 16 2004 60 Table 1A INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: Total Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual1 IP (percent change) 1974 1975 1976 1977 -.7 -1.3 1.4 -.6 -.3 -2.4 .9 1.5 .0 -1.0 .0 1.2 -.1 .0 .7 .9 .6 -.1 .4 .8 -.1 .7 .0 .7 .1 1.1 .6 .3 -.9 .9 .7 .1 .1 1.3 .2 .5 -.4 .4 .1 .3 -3.3 .3 1.5 .1 -3.5 1.3 1.0 .1 -3.8 -23.9 12.5 8.4 .4 -5.5 5.2 12.5 -1.7 10.7 5.1 5.1 -14.9 8.8 7.8 3.2 -.4 -8.9 7.8 7.7 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 -1.4 -.7 .4 -.5 -1.9 .5 .6 .0 -.5 1.9 1.9 .3 -.4 .5 -.7 1.9 -1.0 -2.0 -.4 -.8 .4 .7 -2.5 .7 -.7 .7 .0 -1.3 .5 -.4 .0 -.2 -.6 .7 -.4 .4 -.7 .3 .0 -.8 .3 .1 1.6 -.7 -.4 .8 .5 1.2 -.7 -.8 .8 -.1 1.7 -1.1 -.4 .6 .2 .6 -1.1 -.8 -1.5 1.8 1.5 .9 -7.5 16.3 -.5 -15.9 1.4 -5.0 3.6 -1.5 -6.2 4.2 -6.0 7.7 1.4 15.9 -8.6 -7.6 5.5 3.0 -2.6 1.3 -5.1 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1.9 2.1 -.3 .5 -.3 -.6 .4 .4 -.8 1.3 .9 .5 .1 -.6 .1 1.2 .6 -.2 .0 .6 .7 .5 .1 .2 .7 .6 .4 .0 -.3 .5 1.6 .3 -.7 .6 .6 1.1 .1 .5 -.2 .7 1.6 -.2 .4 .2 .2 .8 -.1 -.4 .4 1.5 .3 .4 .3 .5 .5 .5 .1 1.0 .9 .5 4.4 12.5 1.1 2.4 5.5 9.4 6.2 .5 -2.6 7.0 14.8 2.9 -.7 1.6 7.0 10.9 .5 2.6 4.6 9.8 2.6 9.0 1.3 1.0 5.1 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 .0 .3 -.6 -.5 -.6 .4 -.5 .9 -.6 .7 .3 .3 .5 -.5 .8 .5 -.1 .0 .2 .7 -.1 -.7 .1 1.0 .5 .2 .0 .3 1.0 .0 .2 -.9 -.2 .0 .8 .5 1.0 .3 .1 -.4 -.3 -.3 .2 .8 .2 .6 .0 -.7 -.2 .7 .2 .3 -1.2 -.1 .4 .4 .7 -.7 -.3 .0 3.4 1.5 2.6 -7.5 -.3 3.3 -1.9 2.9 2.6 7.1 2.1 -2.5 1.3 5.6 2.7 3.2 2.0 -5.9 .9 3.9 5.0 .9 .9 -1.5 2.8 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 .5 .4 .3 -.9 .3 .4 .0 .0 1.5 1.2 .0 1.0 .1 -.2 .5 .3 .5 .0 .9 .2 -.4 .6 .2 .7 .4 .2 .7 .3 .9 .5 .3 .2 -.4 -.1 .6 .1 .5 1.4 .7 1.0 .4 .2 .4 .6 .9 .7 .9 -.2 .1 .8 .5 .6 .2 .9 .6 .5 1.1 .5 .7 .4 3.7 5.2 5.2 1.7 8.6 1.1 7.5 1.0 8.3 5.7 2.2 5.2 3.8 5.5 8.6 6.3 8.1 3.7 6.4 9.5 3.3 5.4 4.8 4.3 7.3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .5 .6 -.1 -1.0 .7 .2 .4 .4 -.6 -.2 .2 .4 .6 -.3 .6 .6 .2 .7 -.2 .4 .5 .7 .6 -.5 .2 -.4 .0 .0 -.6 .7 -.2 .6 -.5 -.4 -.1 1.9 .6 -.3 -.1 .0 -.3 -.3 .4 -.5 .0 .8 1.2 -.5 -.4 -.5 -.2 .5 -.1 -.5 .1 .2 1.0 -.2 .0 -.4 4.6 4.4 4.7 -6.7 2.3 4.3 4.3 6.7 -4.6 4.4 3.4 4.7 -1.4 -4.7 1.7 4.5 7.4 -2.0 -4.2 -2.3 5.8 4.5 4.3 -3.6 -.3 2003 2004 .2 .3 .1 1.1 -.4 -.3 -.9 .5 .1 .7 .3 -.4 .6 .7 -.1 .1 .7 -.1 .2 .7 1.0 .2 .2 -.7 5.6 -4.0 4.3 4.1 2.9 5.7 .0 IP (1997=100) 1974 1975 1976 1977 56.7 51.6 53.5 56.6 56.5 50.4 54.0 57.4 56.5 49.8 54.0 58.1 56.5 49.8 54.4 58.7 56.8 49.8 54.6 59.1 56.7 50.1 54.6 59.5 56.8 50.6 54.9 59.7 56.2 51.1 55.3 59.8 56.3 51.8 55.4 60.1 56.1 52.0 55.5 60.3 54.2 52.1 56.3 60.3 52.3 52.8 56.9 60.4 56.6 50.6 53.8 57.4 56.7 49.9 54.5 59.1 56.4 51.2 55.2 59.9 54.2 52.3 56.3 60.3 56.0 51.0 55.0 59.2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 59.5 64.1 64.6 63.4 60.9 59.8 64.5 64.7 63.1 62.1 60.9 64.7 64.4 63.4 61.6 62.1 64.0 63.2 63.1 61.1 62.4 64.5 61.6 63.6 60.7 62.8 64.5 60.8 63.9 60.5 62.8 64.4 60.4 64.3 60.2 63.0 63.9 60.6 64.3 59.7 63.2 64.0 61.6 63.9 59.5 63.7 64.3 62.3 63.4 59.0 64.2 64.3 63.4 62.7 58.7 64.6 64.4 63.7 62.1 58.2 60.1 64.4 64.6 63.3 61.5 62.4 64.3 61.8 63.5 60.7 63.0 64.1 60.9 64.2 59.8 64.1 64.3 63.1 62.7 58.6 62.4 64.3 62.6 63.4 60.2 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 59.4 66.0 67.8 69.4 69.8 59.0 66.3 68.1 68.9 70.7 59.5 66.6 68.2 68.4 70.8 60.2 67.0 68.1 68.4 71.2 60.7 67.3 68.2 68.6 71.7 61.0 67.6 68.2 68.3 72.0 62.0 67.8 67.7 68.8 72.5 62.7 67.9 68.1 68.6 73.0 63.6 67.7 68.4 68.8 73.1 64.2 67.7 68.1 69.1 74.2 64.3 68.0 68.3 69.4 74.6 64.7 68.0 69.0 70.0 74.9 59.3 66.3 68.1 68.9 70.4 60.6 67.3 68.2 68.4 71.6 62.8 67.8 68.1 68.7 72.9 64.4 67.9 68.5 69.5 74.6 61.8 67.3 68.2 68.9 72.4 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 75.0 77.3 76.6 75.7 76.3 75.2 76.9 77.2 75.2 76.9 75.4 77.1 77.6 74.9 77.5 75.8 77.1 77.6 75.0 78.0 75.7 76.5 77.6 75.8 78.4 75.9 76.6 77.9 76.5 78.3 76.0 75.9 77.7 76.5 78.9 76.4 76.6 77.9 76.6 78.6 76.2 76.3 78.1 77.3 78.7 76.6 76.3 77.5 77.1 79.3 76.8 76.5 76.6 77.0 79.6 77.1 77.0 76.1 76.8 79.6 75.2 77.1 77.1 75.3 76.9 75.8 76.7 77.7 75.7 78.2 76.2 76.3 77.9 76.8 78.8 76.8 76.6 76.7 77.0 79.5 76.0 76.7 77.4 76.2 78.4 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 80.0 82.9 88.6 90.0 96.4 80.4 83.0 88.6 91.4 97.6 80.4 83.7 88.7 91.1 98.1 80.6 84.2 88.6 92.0 98.3 80.3 84.7 88.8 92.6 98.7 80.5 85.3 89.1 93.4 99.2 80.8 85.5 88.7 93.3 99.8 80.8 85.9 89.9 93.9 100.8 81.2 86.1 90.3 94.5 101.7 81.7 86.8 90.2 94.6 102.5 82.1 87.4 90.4 95.5 103.2 82.6 88.3 90.9 96.2 103.6 80.3 83.2 88.6 90.8 97.4 80.5 84.7 88.8 92.7 98.7 80.9 85.8 89.7 93.9 100.8 82.2 87.5 90.5 95.4 103.1 80.9 85.3 89.4 93.2 100.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 104.1 108.2 113.8 113.8 109.9 104.2 108.6 114.3 113.1 109.7 104.5 109.0 114.9 112.7 110.3 105.2 109.3 115.7 112.5 110.7 105.7 110.0 116.4 111.9 111.0 105.3 110.0 116.4 111.3 111.8 105.1 110.7 115.9 110.8 111.7 107.0 111.4 115.5 110.7 111.6 106.7 111.0 115.9 110.1 111.6 107.5 112.3 115.4 109.7 111.1 107.3 112.8 115.2 109.2 111.2 107.5 113.9 115.0 109.2 110.7 104.3 108.6 114.3 113.2 110.0 105.4 109.8 116.2 111.9 111.2 106.3 111.0 115.8 110.6 111.6 107.4 113.0 115.2 109.4 111.0 105.8 110.6 115.4 111.3 111.0 2003 2004 110.9 113.2 111.0 114.4 110.6 114.1 109.5 114.7 109.6 115.5 109.9 115.1 110.6 115.9 110.5 116.0 111.3 115.9 111.6 116.7 112.7 117.0 112.9 110.8 113.9 109.7 115.1 110.8 115.9 112.4 110.9 Year NOTE Estimates from September 2004 through November 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 17 Table 1B CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION: Total Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 1974 1975 1976 1977 65.0 66.9 68.4 70.2 65.2 67.0 68.5 70.3 65.4 67.1 68.7 70.5 65.5 67.3 68.8 70.7 65.7 67.4 69.0 70.8 65.9 67.5 69.1 71.0 66.0 67.6 69.2 71.2 66.2 67.7 69.4 71.4 66.4 67.9 69.5 71.6 66.5 68.0 69.7 71.8 66.6 68.1 69.9 72.0 66.8 68.2 70.0 72.2 65.2 67.0 68.5 70.3 65.7 67.4 69.0 70.8 66.2 67.7 69.4 71.4 66.6 68.1 69.9 72.0 65.9 67.6 69.2 71.2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 72.4 74.7 76.6 78.4 80.7 72.6 74.9 76.8 78.6 80.8 72.8 75.1 76.9 78.8 81.0 73.0 75.2 77.1 78.9 81.2 73.2 75.4 77.2 79.1 81.4 73.4 75.6 77.4 79.3 81.5 73.6 75.7 77.5 79.5 81.7 73.8 75.9 77.6 79.7 81.8 74.0 76.1 77.8 79.9 82.0 74.2 76.2 77.9 80.1 82.1 74.4 76.4 78.1 80.3 82.2 74.6 76.5 78.3 80.5 82.3 72.6 74.9 76.8 78.6 80.8 73.2 75.4 77.2 79.1 81.4 73.8 75.9 77.6 79.7 81.8 74.4 76.4 78.1 80.3 82.2 73.5 75.6 77.4 79.4 81.6 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 82.3 83.0 84.8 86.8 88.2 82.4 83.1 84.9 86.9 88.3 82.5 83.2 85.1 87.0 88.5 82.5 83.3 85.3 87.1 88.6 82.6 83.5 85.5 87.2 88.8 82.6 83.6 85.7 87.4 89.0 82.6 83.7 85.9 87.5 89.1 82.7 83.9 86.0 87.6 89.2 82.7 84.1 86.2 87.7 89.4 82.8 84.2 86.4 87.8 89.5 82.9 84.4 86.5 87.9 89.6 82.9 84.6 86.7 88.1 89.7 82.4 83.1 84.9 86.9 88.3 82.6 83.5 85.5 87.2 88.8 82.7 83.9 86.0 87.6 89.2 82.9 84.4 86.5 87.9 89.6 82.6 83.7 85.7 87.4 89.0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 89.8 90.8 92.9 94.9 96.5 89.9 90.9 93.1 95.1 96.7 89.9 91.0 93.3 95.2 96.9 90.0 91.2 93.5 95.3 97.1 90.1 91.4 93.7 95.5 97.3 90.1 91.6 93.9 95.6 97.5 90.2 91.7 94.0 95.7 97.7 90.3 91.9 94.2 95.9 97.9 90.3 92.1 94.4 96.0 98.0 90.4 92.3 94.5 96.1 98.2 90.5 92.5 94.7 96.3 98.4 90.6 92.7 94.8 96.4 98.6 89.9 90.9 93.1 95.1 96.7 90.1 91.4 93.7 95.5 97.3 90.3 91.9 94.2 95.9 97.9 90.5 92.5 94.7 96.3 98.4 90.2 91.7 93.9 95.7 97.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 98.7 100.7 104.4 109.9 116.1 98.9 100.9 104.8 110.4 116.6 99.0 101.1 105.2 111.0 117.2 99.2 101.4 105.7 111.5 117.7 99.3 101.7 106.1 112.0 118.3 99.5 102.0 106.5 112.5 118.9 99.6 102.3 107.0 113.0 119.6 99.8 102.6 107.5 113.5 120.2 99.9 102.9 108.0 114.0 120.9 100.1 103.3 108.4 114.5 121.7 100.3 103.6 108.9 115.0 122.4 100.5 104.0 109.4 115.5 123.1 98.9 100.9 104.8 110.5 116.6 99.3 101.7 106.1 112.0 118.3 99.8 102.6 107.5 113.5 120.3 100.3 103.6 108.9 115.0 122.4 99.6 102.2 106.8 112.7 119.4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 123.9 131.7 138.0 143.6 147.0 124.6 132.3 138.5 143.9 147.2 125.4 132.8 139.0 144.3 147.3 126.1 133.3 139.5 144.6 147.4 126.8 133.8 140.0 145.0 147.5 127.6 134.4 140.5 145.3 147.5 128.2 134.9 141.0 145.6 147.5 128.9 135.4 141.4 145.9 147.5 129.5 135.9 141.9 146.1 147.4 130.1 136.4 142.3 146.4 147.4 130.6 136.9 142.8 146.6 147.3 131.2 137.4 143.2 146.8 147.2 124.6 132.3 138.5 143.9 147.2 126.8 133.8 140.0 145.0 147.5 128.8 135.4 141.4 145.9 147.5 130.6 136.9 142.7 146.6 147.3 127.7 134.6 140.7 145.3 147.4 2003 2004 147.1 147.2 147.0 147.3 146.9 147.5 146.9 147.6 146.8 147.8 146.8 147.9 146.7 148.1 146.8 148.2 146.8 148.4 146.9 148.5 146.9 148.7 147.0 147.0 147.3 146.8 147.8 146.8 148.2 146.9 146.9 Utilization (percent) 1974 1975 1976 1977 87.3 77.2 78.2 80.7 86.8 75.1 78.8 81.7 86.5 74.2 78.6 82.5 86.1 74.1 79.1 83.0 86.4 73.9 79.2 83.5 86.1 74.2 79.0 83.8 85.9 74.9 79.3 83.8 84.9 75.5 79.7 83.7 84.8 76.3 79.7 83.9 84.3 76.4 79.6 83.9 81.4 76.5 80.7 83.8 78.3 77.3 81.3 83.6 86.8 75.5 78.6 81.6 86.2 74.0 79.1 83.4 85.2 75.5 79.6 83.8 81.3 76.7 80.5 83.8 84.9 75.5 79.4 83.2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 82.2 85.8 84.3 80.8 75.5 82.4 86.1 84.2 80.3 76.8 83.7 86.2 83.8 80.5 76.0 85.1 85.1 81.9 80.0 75.2 85.2 85.5 79.7 80.3 74.6 85.5 85.3 78.6 80.5 74.1 85.2 85.0 77.9 80.9 73.7 85.3 84.2 78.0 80.7 73.0 85.3 84.2 79.2 80.0 72.6 85.9 84.4 80.0 79.2 71.9 86.3 84.2 81.1 78.2 71.5 86.6 84.1 81.4 77.2 70.8 82.7 86.0 84.1 80.5 76.1 85.2 85.3 80.1 80.3 74.6 85.3 84.5 78.4 80.5 73.1 86.3 84.2 80.8 78.2 71.4 84.9 85.0 80.9 79.9 73.8 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 72.1 79.5 80.0 80.0 79.1 71.6 79.8 80.2 79.2 80.0 72.1 80.1 80.2 78.6 80.0 73.0 80.4 79.9 78.5 80.3 73.5 80.7 79.7 78.6 80.7 73.9 80.9 79.6 78.2 81.0 75.0 81.0 78.9 78.6 81.3 75.8 80.9 79.1 78.4 81.8 76.9 80.6 79.3 78.4 81.8 77.5 80.4 78.9 78.7 82.9 77.7 80.5 79.0 78.9 83.3 78.0 80.4 79.7 79.5 83.5 71.9 79.8 80.1 79.3 79.7 73.4 80.7 79.7 78.5 80.7 75.9 80.8 79.1 78.5 81.6 77.7 80.4 79.2 79.0 83.2 74.7 80.4 79.5 78.8 81.3 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.5 85.1 82.4 79.7 79.1 83.7 84.6 83.0 79.1 79.5 83.9 84.7 83.2 78.6 80.0 84.2 84.5 83.0 78.6 80.4 84.1 83.8 82.9 79.4 80.6 84.2 83.6 83.0 80.0 80.4 84.3 82.7 82.7 79.9 80.8 84.7 83.3 82.7 79.9 80.3 84.4 82.9 82.8 80.5 80.3 84.8 82.7 82.0 80.2 80.7 84.8 82.7 80.9 80.0 80.9 85.1 83.1 80.2 79.6 80.8 83.7 84.8 82.9 79.2 79.5 84.2 84.0 82.9 79.4 80.4 84.5 82.9 82.7 80.1 80.5 84.9 82.8 81.1 79.9 80.8 84.3 83.6 82.4 79.6 80.3 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 81.1 82.4 84.8 81.9 83.1 81.3 82.2 84.5 82.7 83.7 81.1 82.8 84.3 82.1 83.7 81.3 83.0 83.9 82.5 83.5 80.9 83.3 83.7 82.7 83.4 80.9 83.6 83.6 83.1 83.4 81.1 83.6 82.9 82.6 83.5 81.0 83.7 83.7 82.8 83.8 81.2 83.6 83.7 82.9 84.1 81.7 84.1 83.2 82.6 84.3 81.9 84.3 83.0 83.0 84.3 82.2 84.9 83.0 83.2 84.1 81.2 82.5 84.5 82.2 83.5 81.0 83.3 83.7 82.8 83.4 81.1 83.6 83.4 82.8 83.8 81.9 84.4 83.0 82.9 84.2 81.3 83.5 83.7 82.7 83.7 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 84.0 82.1 82.5 79.3 74.8 83.6 82.1 82.5 78.6 74.6 83.3 82.1 82.7 78.1 74.9 83.4 81.9 82.9 77.8 75.1 83.3 82.2 83.2 77.2 75.3 82.5 81.9 82.9 76.6 75.8 81.9 82.1 82.2 76.1 75.7 83.1 82.3 81.7 75.9 75.7 82.4 81.7 81.7 75.4 75.7 82.7 82.3 81.1 75.0 75.4 82.1 82.4 80.7 74.5 75.5 82.0 82.9 80.3 74.4 75.2 83.7 82.1 82.6 78.7 74.7 83.1 82.0 83.0 77.2 75.4 82.5 82.0 81.9 75.8 75.7 82.3 82.5 80.7 74.6 75.4 82.9 82.2 82.0 76.6 75.3 2003 2004 75.4 76.9 75.5 77.7 75.2 77.4 74.6 77.7 74.7 78.2 74.9 77.8 75.4 78.3 75.3 78.3 75.8 78.1 76.0 78.6 76.7 78.7 76.8 75.4 77.3 74.7 77.9 75.5 78.2 76.5 75.5 NOTE Estimates from September 2004 through November 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 18 Table 2 RATES OF CHANGE IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY: 2000–20041 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1.9 -5.1 1.5 1.2 4.3 -.4 .2 .1 -.3 -.6 2.0 .9 -2.1 -4.5 13.7 -.9 -1.5 2.0 .8 1.2 -7.7 3.8 -2.0 7.9 -4.7 -1.5 -1.3 2.3 5.8 -3.4 -6.6 -1.6 -.8 -1.2 -20.8 7.0 -2.7 -5.2 .6 1.6 6.4 10.1 -4.0 1.8 4.3 -.2 -2.3 -3.6 -9.7 .9 -.8 10.1 1.7 1.3 3.3 5.2 34.8 1.4 -3.5 .4 .8 2.4 -14.9 .6 .6 -1.4 4.7 2.3 -.2 -2.8 -12.0 3.6 4.7 3.3 4.3 4.7 -6.4 4.1 7.1 -1.2 -.4 -.1 -.2 .5 -2.0 -.3 -1.2 .0 -.2 .5 -2.2 -.6 -.9 .8 .3 .7 1.6 1.2 16.1 -1.4 1.5 .3 .3 -.6 -5.6 4.0 .6 .6 .1 .6 .4 .2 -8.4 .0 1.9 .5 .5 .2 -7.3 2.7 .1 1.3 .5 .8 .3 .3 9.8 .4 -1.3 .8 .8 4.0 -1.7 -2.9 -4.9 .6 -.6 -.4 -.7 -2.3 -1.8 2.6 .8 -.2 -.7 1.4 -2.6 -2.7 -4.6 1.3 6.2 -11.7 19.8 3.6 -4.3 -13.3 -3.5 -17.4 -13.7 8.0 -2.6 -12.6 -3.7 2.1 3.8 4.7 .2 16.3 -.5 5.3 11.3 10.2 9.4 12.8 6.4 -.6 -.5 .6 -1.3 -1.3 -.5 2.5 -4.6 1.4 -4.4 -1.2 2.5 -9.2 3.0 .2 1.9 3.5 7.9 -1.8 .7 -1.3 2.3 -4.1 -.9 -.4 -1.1 2.3 -5.0 -5.5 .1 1.4 .6 .0 5.1 4.9 -.9 -.6 1.5 .1 -.4 .1 -.5 -1.4 1.4 -2.1 1.9 1.8 4.9 -8.5 22.2 -4.3 -3.9 -10.2 -4.1 -4.4 1.9 -5.6 -6.5 -7.2 -7.9 -7.9 -6.2 -5.2 -9.5 -6.3 -4.6 -2.8 2.8 3.5 4.6 7.1 6.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 .4 .5 .8 2.2 2.7 5.8 -.9 -1.3 -13.0 -4.3 2.0 -.3 3.7 5.7 7.0 -.4 17.5 3.0 3.5 -4.4 4.5 5.5 -1.4 -.4 -.6 -.7 -1.4 -.8 -.4 -.2 -.4 .6 -.5 .2 .1 .1 -.1 -.8 -.5 .6 .4 2.2 -.2 .5 .0 .2 .5 .3 .4 .3 .4 .8 3.0 .6 .4 -.6 -1.4 -1.6 -2.0 .7 -5.9 -.4 -.8 -2.7 .2 -.7 -.8 -.6 -.8 -.8 .1 .1 -1.4 -.7 1.5 -1.0 -.8 -.2 321 327 331 332 333 334 1.5 1.7 4.1 -6.9 -3.4 -10.2 .0 1.8 29.0 -5.4 -5.3 -7.2 -1.6 -2.5 -8.7 -8.6 -16.7 -9.0 1.3 1.6 3.2 .0 .3 7.1 -.2 1.3 5.6 1.5 1.6 3.3 3.2 1.7 .6 -2.9 .6 14.5 5.3 5.2 6.7 1.3 4.7 3.8 4.4 14.4 16.1 -.5 -.5 -.7 -.4 -1.8 -1.0 .0 -.6 -.4 .2 .2 .1 .6 3.1 2.0 -.2 .3 -1.4 .2 .3 .2 1.8 -1.8 3.6 -.1 2.2 -5.2 -.3 -.1 -.4 -.6 .5 1.2 -1.1 -2.2 -1.2 -.9 -.6 -.8 -.6 4.1 -2.6 -1.0 -.6 -.9 335 3361–3 2.5 -9.7 -14.7 -2.1 -5.2 11.3 1.1 4.8 8.1 -1.1 .2 -.6 -1.9 .7 -3.0 1.4 .0 1.0 -.8 -.8 3364–9 337 339 -4.8 -.7 2.9 4.7 -6.3 -1.5 -7.5 4.2 7.4 .8 -1.8 -2.2 4.2 3.5 4.2 -.9 -1.3 -3.2 -.2 1.2 1.3 2.3 4.6 3.8 .3 .9 -1.0 -.5 -.6 -.9 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 -1.5 1.0 -6.7 -7.5 -4.7 -1.3 -1.1 -.6 -4.0 -2.9 -.8 -9.5 -21.0 -5.7 -8.1 .8 .2 -4.4 -.4 -2.9 .4 -9.3 4.1 -3.2 4.1 1.0 2.4 -.4 2.1 -8.5 -14.3 -3.3 -3.5 1.2 1.2 -2.2 3.2 4.0 -1.6 -5.7 4.8 .6 3.4 4.2 1.9 -.1 .5 -.3 -2.1 .1 .0 .6 -.4 -.8 .3 -.4 .7 -5.6 .3 -1.4 3.3 1.5 1.3 .5 .7 1.7 -7.3 1.2 -1.5 2.9 1.1 .2 .3 3.3 -1.6 -1.9 -.6 2.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.8 -.5 .8 1.6 -2.6 .2 -4.1 3.4 -2.5 -.9 1133,5111 -1.9 -6.3 -3.9 .3 6.5 -.4 .0 -1.7 -4.0 -3.9 21 2211,2 2211 2212 1.3 6.1 4.9 13.2 -.6 -5.1 -3.7 -12.8 -3.8 7.1 5.7 15.4 .2 -.6 .5 -6.2 -1.5 .6 1.5 -3.6 .3 .0 .0 .3 .4 .1 .0 .0 -1.5 .5 .2 2.0 -.1 .0 -.1 -.3 .6 .4 1.1 -2.9 Total IP MARKET GROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas NOTE. Estimates for the third quarter of 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 2004, the rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2004 and annualized. 19 Table 3 RATES OF CHANGE IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, SPECIAL AGGREGATES AND SELECTED DETAIL: 2000–20041 Item 2000 Revised change (percent) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) 2001 2002 2003 2004 1.9 -5.1 1.5 1.2 4.3 -.4 .2 .1 -.3 -.6 Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials 4.3 7.9 6.2 34.8 5.5 .0 -3.3 -5.2 -1.3 -8.1 -8.1 .0 2.9 10.1 4.7 -15.5 4.0 -1.5 -.3 -1.4 .1 21.0 .0 -.4 -.4 -1.2 4.8 6.0 -.6 -1.9 .4 .8 .2 5.5 .1 .3 .3 .6 .3 2.8 -.2 .2 .0 1.3 1.2 -.7 .3 -1.0 -.3 .6 -1.3 17.0 -1.0 -.7 .3 1.3 -.6 12.9 .5 -.6 Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computer and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components 3341 3342 1.5 37.6 18.6 28.6 -5.4 -10.1 -3.6 -30.3 1.2 8.1 .9 -14.3 1.5 18.7 21.8 22.5 5.3 20.2 4.5 8.4 -.5 -.6 -.6 1.0 .2 -1.6 2.1 -7.5 .2 -7.2 -23.0 -8.8 -.3 -2.6 7.7 16.7 -.9 -1.5 -15.2 -.1 334412–9 51.2 1.7 25.2 16.2 35.2 -1.6 .9 .3 -18.2 6.1 -2.0 -5.0 .7 .4 4.4 -.5 .3 .7 -.2 -.8 -9.7 -11.8 -7.1 -2.1 2.5 -5.0 11.3 11.1 10.8 4.8 6.7 2.7 -1.1 -2.4 -1.5 -.6 .3 -1.4 .7 .9 .3 1.4 -.5 3.0 1.0 3.0 -.3 -.8 -.4 -1.0 Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials -1.2 .4 2.9 -1.4 -1.5 -3.2 -5.2 -1.7 -10.0 -4.8 -6.4 -7.2 -.4 -1.2 -2.2 .2 -.2 .7 .0 .7 .1 .6 -.9 -.9 5.0 3.9 11.8 5.0 3.9 4.2 -.5 -.3 -.9 -.9 -.8 -.3 .3 .3 1.4 1.6 .1 .0 .6 .7 2.4 -.2 -.2 .4 -.3 .5 -.9 -.5 -1.1 -.6 -.8 -.3 -.9 1.3 -2.8 -1.0 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing2 Durable -1.0 -1.9 -2.3 -4.6 -4.9 -6.5 1.0 .7 2.3 .3 .4 1.2 3.5 4.3 5.0 -.4 -.5 -.7 .3 .3 .4 .6 .8 1.3 -.2 -.2 -.1 -.6 -.8 -.7 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing2 Durable 2.8 2.5 6.5 -5.2 -5.6 -7.9 .8 .4 1.6 .9 1.2 2.9 4.7 5.9 8.4 -.4 -.5 -.8 .2 .2 .0 .0 .1 -.1 -.4 -.5 -.7 -.5 -.8 -.7 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing2 -.2 -1.2 -4.8 -5.2 .3 -.3 -.1 .0 3.9 4.9 -.3 -.4 .3 .3 .5 .6 -.3 -.3 -.5 -.8 Measure of non-energy material inputs to Finished processors Semifinished and primary processors 7.4 -3.7 -7.7 -5.3 5.5 1.7 1.9 .0 8.5 3.4 -.7 -.4 -.3 .5 .5 .5 -2.7 -.7 -.3 -1.1 -2.8 2.3 2.7 -2.9 -5.9 -4.4 -1.0 3.4 -.4 -1.4 .3 3.3 1.0 4.2 5.3 .0 -.4 -.4 -.1 .4 .0 -.2 .4 -.1 -.7 -1.5 1.5 -.3 -.6 -.7 Total industry Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts 3361–3 3361 3363 STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished NOTE. Estimates for the third quarter of 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 2004, the rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2004 and annualized. 2. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries – logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing – that have traditionally been considered to be a part of manufacturing and are included in the industrial sector. 20 Table 4 REVISED AND EARLIER CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATES, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Difference between revised and earlier rates (percentage points) Revised Rate Item 1972– 2003 Ave. 1988– 1989 High 1990– 1991 Low 2002 Q4 2003 Q4 2004 Q3 2002 Q4 2003 Q4 2004 Q3 Total industry 81.1 85.1 78.6 75.4 76.5 78.2 .2 1.0 .9 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) 79.9 79.7 85.6 85.5 77.2 77.0 73.5 73.2 74.8 74.3 77.0 76.5 .1 .0 .6 .7 .4 .7 321 327 331 332 333 334 78.1 80.1 79.2 80.5 76.9 78.9 79.0 84.5 88.9 84.9 94.3 80.2 84.8 81.7 73.4 73.1 72.0 74.6 71.6 73.0 76.6 70.7 74.4 76.8 78.6 69.4 67.9 62.7 72.1 77.4 78.0 79.3 67.7 69.9 67.7 74.5 78.5 80.3 82.1 70.1 77.5 70.9 .2 .9 -1.1 1.4 -.3 1.1 -.4 .7 .8 -.8 2.8 -.4 .6 .9 1.0 .9 1.5 .9 -.1 .4 2.4 335 3361–3 82.8 77.6 87.5 90.3 75.1 56.0 72.6 80.9 74.8 81.9 80.0 79.8 -1.5 -.3 -.8 .1 -.5 .2 3364–9 337 339 72.7 78.8 76.5 88.7 83.6 81.7 82.1 69.4 77.7 63.2 72.6 75.9 63.2 71.1 74.1 64.8 73.5 76.4 -1.1 1.5 -.8 -1.5 1.9 -1.6 -2.1 2.2 -2.4 323 324 325 326 81.9 81.9 83.4 79.6 88.2 84.1 86.0 78.5 83.7 87.1 85.6 91.5 84.2 93.7 91.6 88.9 85.7 91.1 81.7 81.0 77.2 77.3 85.2 82.7 82.9 80.9 77.1 76.6 76.6 76.8 66.7 84.8 73.0 87.0 73.5 81.1 77.3 78.7 73.4 64.9 83.5 71.7 88.9 74.1 81.2 79.3 81.0 74.8 68.5 86.8 71.9 90.2 75.9 83.1 -.2 -.7 1.9 -.4 -.1 -1.3 -1.1 .6 1.5 .5 1.7 1.3 .8 -.1 .5 -.2 -.2 .3 .1 1.4 2.5 2.2 -.3 -2.9 1.2 -1.0 .1 1133,5111 84.8 90.5 80.4 80.7 83.3 87.5 1.8 -.1 -2.9 21 2211,2 87.1 86.9 85.8 92.8 83.5 84.2 85.4 87.9 87.1 84.8 86.3 84.0 .8 .7 1.8 1.7 2.4 1.9 3341 3342 78.6 78.6 76.6 81.0 80.2 80.8 74.3 67.5 73.4 60.9 70.9 42.8 66.7 74.1 52.8 69.9 73.6 56.7 -.9 -.7 -5.4 -.3 .7 2.1 1.8 -.8 2.7 334412–9 81.2 82.8 77.5 69.8 74.8 78.5 3.2 -.7 4.4 81.2 80.0 85.5 86.0 78.8 77.3 76.4 74.6 77.1 75.4 78.9 77.8 .1 .0 .6 .2 .4 -.2 86.4 82.2 78.0 88.9 86.5 83.1 84.8 77.5 77.2 83.5 78.0 70.8 84.9 78.4 72.4 85.8 79.7 75.0 .4 .5 -.3 1.1 .8 .8 1.3 .7 .7 Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper 322 Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computer and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components 311,2 313,4 315,6 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished NOTE. Estimates for the third quarter of 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 21 Table 5 RATES OF CHANGE IN CAPACITY, BY INDUSTRY GROUPS: 2000 to 20041 Item 2000 Revised change (percent) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) 2001 2002 2003 2004 Total industry 4.3 2.7 .5 -.2 1.2 .2 .4 -1.2 -1.3 -.4 Manufacturing2 5.0 5.3 8.5 1.0 .7 2.6 2.8 4.9 .2 -1.3 .0 .2 .7 -.5 -2.5 -.1 .1 1.3 -1.3 -2.9 1.1 1.2 2.2 -.2 .1 .1 .1 .2 .1 1.0 .4 .4 .2 .6 -.3 -1.1 -1.1 -2.0 -.1 -.9 -1.1 -1.0 -1.2 -.6 -1.5 -.5 -.6 -1.4 .3 .7 Mining Utilities -1.0 3.2 2.0 3.9 -.6 4.6 -1.7 3.0 -.4 1.9 .2 .7 -.7 .2 -.9 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 -.4 .4 Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing2 ex. selected high-technology industries 38.8 27.4 8.0 8.4 13.4 -3.4 2.5 -9.7 -3.4 -7.3 1.7 .5 -.4 -.6 .1 .4 .1 -.2 -.4 -.1 -.9 5.1 4.7 .9 3.0 2.4 -.8 .8 .3 -2.2 -.2 .6 -.2 2.0 .3 .4 .0 .4 -.3 .2 .6 -.4 -1.0 -1.4 -1.1 -2.0 -.2 -.1 -.3 -.7 Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) STAGE–OF–PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. 2. See footnote 2 to table 3. Table 6 RATES OF CHANGE IN ELECTRIC POWER USE: 2000 to 20041 Item 2000 Revised change (percent) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) 2001 2002 2003 2004 Total Industry 1.0 -6.4 -.3 -1.3 .8 .0 1.3 -.8 1.4 -.8 Manufacturing2 Durable Nondurable 1.2 -.1 2.4 -6.7 -7.0 -6.4 .1 1.5 -1.0 -1.2 -2.5 -.2 .7 2.7 -.9 .0 .0 .0 1.4 1.2 1.5 -.8 -.7 -.9 1.6 1.2 1.9 -.8 -.1 -1.3 -2.7 -3.1 -5.0 -3.4 2.3 .0 .1 -.4 -1.0 -.1 .2 .6 9.1 -5.4 -7.4 2.8 -.4 -.3 .7 -1.1 -1.5 .9 .8 .9 .2 .0 .0 .0 1.3 1.2 2.6 -.8 -.7 -1.4 1.4 1.5 -.1 -.5 -.6 .3 Mining Total ex. nuclear nondefense Utility sales to industry Industrial generation NOTE. Estimates for the third quarter of 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 2004, the percent change is calculated from the fourth quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2004. 2. See footnote 2 to table 3. 22 Table 7A INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual2 IP (percent change) 1974 1975 1976 1977 -.9 -1.9 1.3 -.3 -.4 -3.0 1.3 1.7 -.1 -1.3 .1 1.4 -.2 -.3 .8 1.1 .5 .1 .4 .8 .1 .8 .0 .8 -.1 1.5 .8 .2 -.8 1.0 .7 .6 .1 1.7 .2 .2 -.8 .4 .1 .4 -3.0 .3 1.3 .1 -4.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 -3.4 -28.8 13.5 10.4 -.3 -7.0 6.8 14.3 -1.5 14.1 5.8 5.7 -16.4 10.5 6.8 4.6 -.3 -10.5 8.9 8.7 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 -1.5 -.9 .4 -.3 -2.3 .4 .5 -.1 -.6 2.7 1.7 .5 -.8 .3 -.8 1.5 -1.4 -2.0 .5 -.6 .3 1.1 -3.0 .6 -.2 .7 .1 -1.5 -.5 -.2 .0 .1 -.9 .2 -.2 .5 -1.3 .7 .1 -.8 .5 .3 1.6 -.5 -.4 .8 .3 1.7 -1.0 -1.1 .9 -.3 1.8 -1.2 -.7 .9 .4 .3 -1.6 -.5 .1 1.7 .8 .7 -8.8 13.5 -.8 -18.7 3.2 -2.0 4.3 -.9 -7.6 .1 -4.1 9.0 -.1 18.8 -10.0 -8.6 6.0 3.1 -3.7 1.1 -5.4 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 2.5 1.9 -.4 1.2 -.3 -.2 1.1 -.3 -.7 1.5 1.0 .5 .8 -.3 .0 1.2 .5 -.3 .3 .5 1.3 .3 .1 .2 .7 .8 .5 .1 -.4 .4 1.5 .5 -.6 .5 .7 .8 .2 .6 .3 .5 1.9 -.2 .1 .2 .5 1.1 .4 -.2 .4 1.6 .3 .4 .6 .5 .6 .2 .4 .4 .9 .6 8.7 12.9 .1 4.6 6.0 12.3 6.1 1.0 -.3 6.7 15.5 3.8 .0 2.4 6.9 12.5 2.8 2.4 5.0 11.2 4.6 9.9 1.7 2.2 5.5 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 -.2 .8 -.2 -.8 -.6 .1 -1.0 1.4 -.6 .9 .3 -.1 .4 -.6 .9 .8 .1 -.2 .3 .5 -.1 -.9 .0 .8 .7 .1 .2 .3 1.1 .2 .1 -1.1 -.2 .3 .8 .1 .9 .3 .3 -.3 .4 -.3 .0 1.0 .0 .6 -.1 -.8 -.2 .6 .2 .2 -1.1 -.2 .4 .4 .2 -.8 -.1 -.2 2.4 1.6 4.1 -8.9 .8 4.2 -3.4 2.7 2.1 8.0 1.4 -3.0 .6 7.3 3.8 4.9 .8 -6.5 1.6 2.7 5.2 .8 .7 -2.0 3.7 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1.1 .2 .4 -1.1 .3 .2 .1 -.1 1.5 1.4 -.1 1.3 .2 -.3 .8 .5 .8 -.1 1.2 .1 -.1 .7 .0 .7 .5 -.1 .3 .4 1.1 .7 .3 .5 -.6 .3 .5 .0 .7 1.2 .6 1.2 .6 .3 .9 .8 .9 .8 1.1 -.1 .0 .7 .5 .7 .0 .9 .8 .6 1.1 .5 1.0 .5 4.7 5.1 5.6 .7 10.2 1.6 9.5 .4 9.5 6.8 1.4 6.1 3.1 8.0 9.5 7.1 9.8 4.6 6.8 10.2 3.5 6.0 5.3 4.6 8.5 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .8 .4 .0 -.9 .7 .2 .7 .3 -.6 -.2 .1 .1 .9 -.4 .4 .8 .4 .7 -.2 .2 .3 .9 .4 -.5 .3 -.5 -.2 .0 -.7 .8 -.2 .4 -.3 -.3 -.2 2.2 .9 -.6 -.4 .1 -.4 -.3 .3 -.5 .0 1.0 1.3 -.5 -.5 -.7 .0 .6 -.5 -.2 .0 .4 .9 -.5 .2 -.5 6.3 4.9 5.2 -7.6 2.8 3.9 4.9 6.7 -4.8 3.4 3.6 4.5 -1.8 -5.2 2.2 6.6 9.0 -3.7 -4.0 -3.2 6.6 5.2 4.6 -4.2 -.4 2003 2004 .3 .2 -.1 1.2 -.2 .1 -.9 .6 .1 .6 .6 -.1 .3 .8 -.2 .4 1.0 -.4 .3 .7 1.1 .2 .0 -.6 5.6 -3.3 6.0 3.9 4.1 6.5 .0 IP (1997=100) 1974 1975 1976 1977 53.1 47.4 49.2 52.5 52.9 46.0 49.9 53.4 52.8 45.4 50.0 54.2 52.7 45.3 50.4 54.8 53.0 45.3 50.6 55.2 53.0 45.7 50.6 55.6 52.9 46.4 51.0 55.7 52.5 46.8 51.3 56.0 52.6 47.6 51.4 56.1 52.2 47.8 51.4 56.4 50.6 48.0 52.1 56.4 48.3 48.6 52.7 57.0 52.9 46.3 49.7 53.4 52.9 45.4 50.5 55.2 52.7 47.0 51.2 56.0 50.4 48.1 52.1 56.6 52.2 46.7 50.9 55.3 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 56.2 60.3 60.6 59.0 55.7 56.4 60.6 60.6 58.7 57.1 57.3 60.9 60.1 58.9 56.7 58.2 60.0 58.9 59.2 56.3 58.4 60.7 57.1 59.6 56.2 58.8 60.8 56.2 59.3 56.1 58.8 60.8 55.7 59.4 56.0 59.1 60.0 56.1 59.5 55.5 59.3 60.2 57.0 59.2 55.3 59.8 60.4 58.0 58.6 54.7 60.4 60.2 59.1 57.9 54.4 60.9 60.4 59.2 57.0 54.1 56.6 60.6 60.5 58.9 56.5 58.4 60.5 57.4 59.3 56.2 59.1 60.3 56.3 59.4 55.6 60.3 60.3 58.8 57.8 54.4 58.6 60.4 58.2 58.8 55.7 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 55.4 62.4 64.9 66.6 67.7 55.3 63.0 64.7 66.1 68.7 55.9 63.3 65.2 65.9 68.7 56.5 63.6 65.0 66.2 69.1 57.3 63.8 65.1 66.3 69.6 57.7 64.1 65.2 66.0 69.8 58.6 64.4 64.8 66.4 70.3 59.0 64.5 65.2 66.6 70.6 60.2 64.4 65.3 66.7 71.0 60.9 64.7 65.1 67.0 72.1 61.0 64.9 65.5 67.3 72.6 61.2 65.1 65.8 67.9 73.0 55.5 62.9 64.9 66.2 68.4 57.2 63.9 65.1 66.2 69.5 59.3 64.4 65.1 66.6 70.7 61.0 64.9 65.5 67.4 72.6 58.3 64.0 65.1 66.6 70.3 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 72.8 75.7 74.1 73.0 74.0 72.9 75.0 75.1 72.6 74.6 73.2 74.9 75.4 72.1 75.3 73.8 75.0 75.3 72.3 75.7 73.7 74.3 75.3 72.8 76.2 73.8 74.4 75.5 73.6 76.4 73.9 73.6 75.4 73.8 77.0 73.9 74.3 75.6 74.0 76.7 74.2 74.1 75.6 74.8 76.7 74.7 74.0 75.0 74.6 77.2 74.9 74.2 74.2 74.5 77.5 75.1 74.3 73.6 74.4 77.3 73.0 75.2 74.9 72.5 74.7 73.7 74.6 75.4 72.9 76.1 74.0 74.0 75.5 74.2 76.8 74.9 74.2 74.3 74.5 77.3 73.9 74.5 75.0 73.6 76.2 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 78.2 80.8 87.5 88.6 95.9 78.3 80.9 87.4 89.9 97.2 78.2 81.9 87.5 89.6 98.0 78.6 82.6 87.4 90.7 98.1 78.5 83.2 87.4 91.3 98.6 78.5 83.4 87.8 92.3 99.3 78.7 83.8 87.2 92.5 99.8 78.6 84.4 88.3 93.1 101.0 79.1 84.6 89.1 93.9 101.9 79.8 85.5 89.0 93.8 102.7 80.2 86.2 89.1 94.7 103.5 80.6 87.1 89.5 95.6 104.0 78.2 81.2 87.5 89.4 97.0 78.5 83.1 87.5 91.4 98.7 78.8 84.3 88.2 93.2 100.9 80.2 86.3 89.2 94.7 103.4 78.9 83.7 88.1 92.2 100.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 104.8 109.4 115.8 115.0 111.2 105.0 110.2 116.2 114.3 110.9 105.1 110.3 117.2 113.9 111.4 105.9 110.7 118.0 113.7 111.6 106.3 111.7 118.5 113.1 111.9 105.7 111.5 118.5 112.3 112.8 105.5 112.0 118.2 112.0 112.6 107.9 112.9 117.4 111.6 112.8 107.5 112.6 117.8 111.0 112.7 108.5 114.1 117.3 110.5 112.0 108.5 114.9 116.7 110.2 112.0 108.9 115.9 116.1 110.5 111.4 105.0 110.0 116.4 114.4 111.2 106.0 111.3 118.3 113.0 112.1 106.9 112.5 117.8 111.5 112.7 108.7 115.0 116.7 110.4 111.8 106.6 112.2 117.3 112.3 111.9 2003 2004 111.8 114.1 111.6 115.5 111.5 115.6 110.4 116.4 110.5 117.1 111.1 116.9 111.5 117.8 111.3 118.3 112.4 117.8 112.7 118.6 113.9 118.9 113.9 111.6 115.1 110.7 116.8 111.7 118.0 113.5 111.9 Year NOTE. Estimates from September 2004 through November 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 23 Table 7B CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 1974 1975 1976 1977 61.1 63.0 64.5 66.3 61.3 63.2 64.6 66.4 61.5 63.3 64.8 66.6 61.7 63.4 64.9 66.8 61.9 63.5 65.1 66.9 62.0 63.6 65.2 67.1 62.2 63.7 65.4 67.3 62.4 63.9 65.5 67.5 62.5 64.0 65.7 67.7 62.7 64.1 65.8 67.8 62.8 64.2 66.0 68.0 62.9 64.4 66.1 68.2 61.3 63.2 64.6 66.4 61.9 63.5 65.1 66.9 62.4 63.9 65.5 67.5 62.8 64.2 66.0 68.0 62.1 63.7 65.3 67.2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 68.4 70.7 73.0 75.2 77.4 68.6 70.9 73.2 75.4 77.6 68.8 71.1 73.3 75.6 77.8 69.0 71.3 73.5 75.8 77.9 69.2 71.5 73.7 76.0 78.1 69.4 71.7 73.8 76.2 78.2 69.6 71.9 74.0 76.4 78.4 69.8 72.1 74.2 76.5 78.5 70.0 72.3 74.4 76.7 78.6 70.1 72.5 74.6 76.9 78.7 70.3 72.6 74.8 77.1 78.8 70.5 72.8 75.0 77.3 78.9 68.6 70.9 73.2 75.4 77.6 69.2 71.5 73.7 76.0 78.1 69.8 72.1 74.2 76.5 78.5 70.3 72.6 74.8 77.1 78.8 69.5 71.8 74.0 76.2 78.3 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 79.0 79.8 81.9 84.0 85.6 79.0 79.9 82.1 84.2 85.8 79.1 80.0 82.3 84.3 86.0 79.1 80.2 82.6 84.4 86.2 79.2 80.3 82.8 84.5 86.4 79.2 80.5 83.0 84.6 86.5 79.3 80.7 83.1 84.7 86.7 79.3 80.9 83.3 84.9 86.9 79.4 81.1 83.5 85.0 87.0 79.5 81.3 83.6 85.1 87.1 79.6 81.5 83.8 85.3 87.2 79.7 81.7 83.9 85.5 87.3 79.0 79.9 82.1 84.2 85.8 79.2 80.3 82.8 84.5 86.4 79.3 80.9 83.3 84.9 86.9 79.6 81.5 83.8 85.3 87.2 79.3 80.6 83.0 84.7 86.6 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 87.4 88.5 90.9 93.1 94.8 87.5 88.6 91.1 93.2 95.0 87.6 88.8 91.3 93.4 95.2 87.6 89.0 91.5 93.5 95.4 87.7 89.2 91.7 93.7 95.6 87.8 89.4 91.9 93.8 95.9 87.8 89.6 92.1 93.9 96.1 87.9 89.8 92.3 94.1 96.3 88.0 90.1 92.5 94.2 96.5 88.1 90.3 92.6 94.4 96.7 88.2 90.5 92.8 94.5 97.0 88.3 90.7 93.0 94.7 97.2 87.5 88.7 91.1 93.2 95.0 87.7 89.2 91.7 93.7 95.6 87.9 89.8 92.3 94.1 96.3 88.2 90.5 92.8 94.5 97.0 87.8 89.5 92.0 93.9 96.0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 97.4 99.6 103.7 110.0 117.0 97.5 99.9 104.2 110.6 117.6 97.7 100.2 104.7 111.2 118.3 97.9 100.4 105.1 111.8 118.9 98.1 100.7 105.6 112.4 119.6 98.2 101.1 106.1 113.0 120.3 98.4 101.4 106.7 113.5 121.0 98.6 101.8 107.2 114.1 121.8 98.8 102.1 107.7 114.7 122.6 99.0 102.5 108.3 115.2 123.4 99.2 102.9 108.9 115.8 124.2 99.4 103.3 109.4 116.4 125.1 97.5 99.9 104.2 110.6 117.6 98.1 100.7 105.6 112.4 119.6 98.6 101.8 107.2 114.1 121.8 99.2 102.9 108.9 115.8 124.2 98.3 101.3 106.5 113.2 120.8 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 125.9 135.0 142.4 149.1 152.2 126.8 135.6 143.0 149.5 152.3 127.7 136.3 143.6 149.9 152.3 128.5 136.9 144.2 150.3 152.3 129.4 137.5 144.9 150.6 152.3 130.2 138.1 145.5 150.9 152.3 130.9 138.6 146.0 151.2 152.3 131.7 139.2 146.6 151.4 152.2 132.4 139.9 147.1 151.6 152.2 133.1 140.5 147.7 151.8 152.1 133.7 141.1 148.2 152.0 152.0 134.4 141.7 148.6 152.1 152.0 126.8 135.6 143.0 149.5 152.3 129.3 137.5 144.8 150.6 152.3 131.7 139.3 146.6 151.4 152.2 133.7 141.1 148.2 152.0 152.0 130.4 138.4 145.6 150.9 152.2 2003 2004 151.9 152.1 151.8 152.2 151.8 152.3 151.7 152.5 151.7 152.6 151.6 152.8 151.6 153.0 151.7 153.1 151.7 153.3 151.8 153.4 151.9 153.6 152.0 151.8 152.2 151.7 152.6 151.7 153.1 151.9 151.8 Utilization (percent) 1974 1975 1976 1977 86.8 75.2 76.3 79.2 86.2 72.8 77.2 80.4 85.8 71.7 77.1 81.4 85.4 71.4 77.6 82.0 85.6 71.4 77.8 82.5 85.4 71.8 77.6 82.9 85.1 72.8 78.0 82.8 84.2 73.4 78.3 83.1 84.1 74.4 78.3 83.0 83.3 74.6 78.2 83.1 80.6 74.7 79.0 83.0 76.8 75.5 79.6 83.6 86.3 73.2 76.9 80.3 85.5 71.5 77.6 82.5 84.5 73.5 78.2 83.0 80.2 74.9 78.9 83.2 84.1 73.3 77.9 82.2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 82.1 85.3 83.1 78.5 71.9 82.2 85.4 82.9 77.9 73.6 83.3 85.6 82.0 77.9 72.9 84.3 84.1 80.1 78.1 72.3 84.4 84.8 77.5 78.4 72.0 84.8 84.7 76.1 77.8 71.7 84.5 84.6 75.3 77.8 71.4 84.7 83.3 75.6 77.7 70.7 84.8 83.3 76.6 77.1 70.4 85.2 83.3 77.8 76.2 69.5 85.8 82.9 79.0 75.1 68.9 86.3 83.0 79.0 73.7 68.5 82.5 85.4 82.6 78.1 72.8 84.5 84.6 77.9 78.1 72.0 84.7 83.7 75.8 77.5 70.9 85.8 83.1 78.6 75.0 69.0 84.4 84.2 78.8 77.2 71.2 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 70.1 78.2 79.2 79.2 79.1 70.0 78.9 78.7 78.5 80.0 70.6 79.2 79.2 78.2 79.9 71.4 79.4 78.7 78.4 80.1 72.3 79.4 78.6 78.4 80.6 72.8 79.6 78.6 78.1 80.7 73.9 79.8 77.9 78.4 81.1 74.4 79.8 78.3 78.4 81.3 75.8 79.4 78.2 78.5 81.6 76.6 79.6 77.8 78.6 82.8 76.7 79.6 78.2 78.9 83.2 76.8 79.7 78.4 79.4 83.5 70.3 78.8 79.0 78.7 79.7 72.2 79.5 78.6 78.3 80.5 74.7 79.7 78.1 78.4 81.3 76.7 79.6 78.1 79.0 83.2 73.5 79.4 78.5 78.6 81.2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.3 85.6 81.5 78.4 78.1 83.4 84.6 82.5 77.8 78.6 83.6 84.3 82.6 77.2 79.1 84.2 84.2 82.3 77.3 79.3 84.0 83.3 82.1 77.8 79.7 84.1 83.2 82.2 78.5 79.7 84.1 82.1 81.8 78.6 80.2 84.1 82.7 81.9 78.7 79.7 84.3 82.3 81.7 79.4 79.5 84.8 82.0 81.0 79.1 79.8 84.9 81.9 79.9 78.8 79.9 85.1 81.9 79.2 78.6 79.6 83.4 84.8 82.2 77.8 78.6 84.1 83.6 82.2 77.9 79.6 84.2 82.4 81.8 78.9 79.8 84.9 81.9 80.0 78.8 79.8 84.1 83.2 81.6 78.3 79.4 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 80.3 81.1 84.3 80.5 81.9 80.3 81.0 83.9 81.3 82.7 80.0 81.8 83.6 80.6 82.9 80.3 82.2 83.2 81.1 82.5 80.1 82.6 82.8 81.2 82.4 79.9 82.5 82.7 81.7 82.6 79.9 82.7 81.8 81.5 82.5 79.8 83.0 82.4 81.6 83.0 80.1 82.9 82.7 81.8 83.2 80.6 83.4 82.2 81.4 83.2 80.8 83.7 81.8 81.8 83.3 81.1 84.3 81.8 82.1 83.2 80.2 81.3 83.9 80.8 82.5 80.1 82.4 82.9 81.3 82.5 79.9 82.8 82.3 81.7 82.9 80.8 83.8 82.0 81.8 83.2 80.3 82.6 82.8 81.4 82.8 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 83.3 81.0 81.4 77.1 73.0 82.8 81.2 81.3 76.5 72.9 82.3 80.9 81.6 76.0 73.1 82.4 80.9 81.8 75.6 73.2 82.2 81.2 81.8 75.1 73.5 81.2 80.7 81.5 74.4 74.1 80.6 80.8 80.9 74.1 73.9 81.9 81.1 80.1 73.7 74.1 81.2 80.5 80.1 73.2 74.1 81.6 81.2 79.4 72.8 73.6 81.1 81.4 78.8 72.5 73.7 81.1 81.8 78.1 72.6 73.3 82.8 81.1 81.4 76.5 73.0 81.9 81.0 81.7 75.0 73.6 81.2 80.8 80.4 73.7 74.0 81.3 81.5 78.8 72.6 73.5 81.8 81.1 80.6 74.5 73.5 2003 2004 73.6 75.1 73.5 75.9 73.4 75.9 72.8 76.3 72.8 76.7 73.3 76.5 73.5 77.0 73.4 77.2 74.1 76.9 74.3 77.3 75.0 77.4 75.0 73.5 75.6 73.0 76.5 73.7 77.0 74.8 73.7 NOTE. Estimates from September 2004 through November 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 24 Table 8A INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries1 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual2 IP (percent change) 1974 1975 1976 1977 -.8 -1.2 1.4 -.6 -.4 -2.4 .9 1.4 -.1 -1.0 .0 1.2 -.1 .0 .7 .8 .6 -.1 .3 .7 -.1 .7 -.1 .6 .1 1.1 .5 .3 -.7 .9 .7 .0 -.1 1.3 .1 .4 -.3 .3 .0 .3 -3.3 .2 1.5 .0 -3.6 1.2 1.0 .1 -4.7 -23.7 12.1 7.9 .2 -5.1 4.5 11.6 -1.5 10.8 4.2 4.2 -15.2 8.4 6.9 2.4 -.9 -8.8 7.3 6.9 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 -1.5 -.8 .4 -.7 -1.9 .4 .5 .0 -.5 1.8 1.8 .2 -.4 .5 -.8 2.0 -1.0 -2.1 -.6 -.9 .3 .7 -2.6 .6 -.8 .6 -.2 -1.3 .5 -.5 -.1 -.3 -.7 .7 -.5 .3 -.8 .2 -.1 -.8 .2 .0 1.7 -.7 -.5 .8 .5 1.2 -.8 -.9 .6 -.2 1.7 -1.1 -.5 .6 .1 .5 -1.2 -1.0 -2.2 .7 .6 .1 -8.4 15.9 -1.3 -16.9 .5 -5.8 2.7 -2.7 -6.8 3.5 -6.7 6.8 .3 15.7 -9.6 -8.2 4.7 2.1 -3.6 .6 -6.0 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1.9 2.0 -.3 .6 -.4 -.7 .3 .5 -.8 1.2 .8 .4 .1 -.7 .1 1.2 .5 .0 .0 .5 .7 .4 .1 .1 .6 .5 .2 .0 -.2 .4 1.5 .2 -.6 .3 .5 1.2 .0 .4 -.3 .6 1.3 -.2 .5 .2 .1 .8 -.2 -.4 .4 1.4 .2 .4 .3 .4 .5 .5 .1 1.1 .8 .4 3.7 11.4 .9 2.5 4.5 8.5 4.8 1.0 -2.9 6.3 13.8 1.6 -.3 .6 6.0 9.6 -.2 2.7 4.0 9.0 1.8 7.9 1.0 .9 4.2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 .0 .3 -.7 -.4 -.8 .4 -.5 .8 -.8 .7 .2 .4 .4 -.6 .7 .4 -.1 -.1 .2 .6 -.1 -.7 .1 1.0 .3 .2 .0 .3 1.0 -.2 .1 -1.1 -.2 .0 .7 .5 .9 .3 .1 -.5 -.4 -.3 .2 .9 .1 .5 -.1 -.8 -.2 .6 .2 .2 -1.3 -.2 .3 .4 .7 -.7 -.5 .0 3.2 1.7 2.0 -8.0 -1.8 2.7 -2.1 2.4 2.1 6.1 1.5 -3.3 .9 5.4 1.6 2.9 1.3 -6.5 .3 2.9 4.4 .6 .3 -2.0 1.9 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 .5 .4 .1 -1.1 .0 .3 .0 -.2 1.3 .8 .0 .8 -.2 -.4 .2 .3 .3 -.2 .8 .0 -.4 .5 .0 .4 .1 .2 .6 .2 .7 .3 .3 .0 -.6 -.4 .4 .0 .3 1.2 .4 .7 .3 .0 .1 .5 .7 .6 .7 -.5 -.2 .7 .4 .4 .0 .8 .4 .4 .9 .4 .5 .1 3.1 4.2 2.8 -.5 4.9 .6 5.5 -1.4 6.0 2.0 1.4 3.2 1.4 2.5 5.8 5.1 5.7 .5 3.8 7.1 2.5 4.0 2.4 1.7 4.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .2 .2 -.6 -1.0 .8 .0 .1 .1 -.6 -.2 .1 .1 .3 -.3 .6 .5 -.1 .3 -.1 .4 .3 .5 .3 -.4 .2 -.8 -.3 -.1 -.5 .7 -.6 .3 -.7 -.3 -.2 1.7 .5 -.4 .0 -.2 -.5 -.5 .2 -.5 -.1 .7 1.0 -.6 -.4 -.5 -.5 .2 -.3 -.5 -.1 -.1 .7 -.3 .0 -.5 1.8 .3 .5 -6.9 2.6 2.1 .7 2.8 -3.5 4.2 -.2 1.6 -3.5 -3.7 .9 2.3 4.9 -3.6 -4.4 -3.4 3.1 1.2 1.1 -4.1 -.2 2003 2004 .1 .2 .0 1.0 -.5 -.4 -1.0 .5 .0 .6 .2 -.4 .6 .7 -.2 .0 .7 -.2 .1 .8 1.0 .1 .2 -1.8 4.9 -5.1 3.3 3.3 2.2 5.1 -1.0 IP (1997=100) 1974 1975 1976 1977 70.0 63.6 65.9 69.3 69.7 62.1 66.5 70.2 69.7 61.4 66.5 71.1 69.6 61.5 66.9 71.7 70.0 61.4 67.1 72.2 69.9 61.8 67.1 72.6 69.9 62.5 67.4 72.8 69.4 63.1 67.9 72.8 69.3 63.9 67.9 73.1 69.1 64.1 68.0 73.3 66.8 64.2 69.0 73.3 64.4 65.0 69.7 73.4 69.8 62.4 66.3 70.2 69.8 61.6 67.1 72.2 69.6 63.2 67.7 72.9 66.7 64.4 68.9 73.3 69.0 62.9 67.5 72.2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 72.3 77.3 77.1 75.1 71.5 72.6 77.7 77.1 74.6 72.8 73.9 77.8 76.7 75.0 72.2 75.4 77.0 75.1 74.6 71.6 75.6 77.5 73.1 75.0 71.0 76.1 77.4 72.2 75.4 70.7 76.0 77.2 71.7 75.9 70.3 76.2 76.6 71.8 75.8 69.8 76.4 76.6 73.1 75.2 69.5 77.0 77.0 73.9 74.6 68.8 77.5 76.8 75.2 73.8 68.5 77.9 76.8 75.6 72.9 67.8 72.9 77.6 77.0 74.9 72.2 75.7 77.3 73.5 75.0 71.1 76.2 76.8 72.2 75.7 69.9 77.5 76.8 74.9 73.8 68.4 75.6 77.1 74.4 74.8 70.4 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 69.2 76.2 77.5 79.6 79.5 68.7 76.5 77.9 78.9 80.5 69.2 76.8 78.0 78.4 80.6 70.0 77.1 78.0 78.4 81.0 70.5 77.4 78.0 78.5 81.5 70.8 77.6 78.0 78.3 81.8 71.8 77.8 77.6 78.6 82.2 72.7 77.8 78.0 78.4 82.7 73.7 77.6 78.4 78.5 82.8 74.2 77.4 78.1 78.9 84.0 74.4 77.7 78.3 79.2 84.4 74.7 77.8 79.1 79.8 84.7 69.0 76.5 77.8 79.0 80.2 70.4 77.4 78.0 78.4 81.4 72.8 77.7 78.0 78.5 82.6 74.4 77.7 78.5 79.3 84.4 71.7 77.3 78.1 78.8 82.1 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 84.8 87.1 85.8 84.5 84.6 85.1 86.7 86.6 83.9 85.1 85.3 87.0 86.9 83.4 85.8 85.6 86.9 86.8 83.5 86.3 85.5 86.3 86.9 84.4 86.6 85.7 86.3 87.1 85.2 86.4 85.8 85.3 87.0 85.2 87.0 86.2 86.1 87.2 85.2 86.6 85.9 85.8 87.3 86.0 86.7 86.3 85.7 86.7 85.8 87.2 86.5 85.9 85.5 85.6 87.5 86.9 86.5 84.9 85.2 87.5 85.0 86.9 86.4 83.9 85.2 85.6 86.5 86.9 84.4 86.4 85.9 85.7 87.2 85.5 86.8 86.6 86.0 85.7 85.5 87.4 85.8 86.3 86.6 84.8 86.4 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 87.9 90.3 94.6 93.7 97.9 88.1 90.3 94.4 95.0 98.7 88.1 91.0 94.3 94.6 98.9 88.4 91.3 94.0 95.3 98.8 88.0 91.7 94.0 95.7 98.9 88.2 92.2 94.2 96.4 99.2 88.4 92.3 93.7 96.0 99.7 88.4 92.6 94.7 96.4 100.4 88.7 92.6 94.9 96.8 101.1 89.2 93.2 94.4 96.7 101.8 89.6 93.6 94.4 97.4 102.2 90.0 94.5 94.8 97.9 102.3 88.0 90.5 94.4 94.4 98.5 88.2 91.8 94.1 95.8 99.0 88.5 92.5 94.4 96.4 100.4 89.6 93.8 94.5 97.3 102.1 88.6 92.1 94.4 96.0 100.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 102.6 103.6 105.5 103.2 100.3 102.5 103.7 105.6 102.6 100.1 102.6 103.8 105.9 102.3 100.7 103.1 103.7 106.3 102.2 101.0 103.5 104.2 106.6 101.8 101.2 102.7 103.8 106.5 101.3 101.9 102.1 104.1 105.7 101.0 101.8 103.8 104.6 105.3 101.0 101.6 103.2 104.1 105.5 100.5 101.5 104.0 105.1 104.8 100.1 101.0 103.5 105.4 104.5 99.5 100.9 103.4 106.1 104.2 99.5 100.4 102.6 103.7 105.7 102.7 100.3 103.1 103.9 106.4 101.8 101.4 103.0 104.3 105.5 100.8 101.6 103.6 105.5 104.5 99.7 100.7 103.1 104.4 105.5 101.2 101.0 2003 2004 100.5 101.7 100.4 102.7 99.9 102.3 98.9 102.8 98.9 103.4 99.1 103.0 99.7 103.7 99.5 103.7 100.2 103.5 100.3 104.3 101.3 104.5 101.5 100.3 102.2 99.0 103.1 99.8 103.6 101.0 100.0 Year NOTE. Estimates from September 2004 through November 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 25 Table 8B CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 1974 1975 1976 1977 80.1 82.2 83.7 85.4 80.3 82.4 83.9 85.6 80.5 82.5 84.0 85.8 80.7 82.6 84.1 86.0 80.9 82.7 84.3 86.1 81.1 82.9 84.4 86.3 81.3 83.0 84.6 86.5 81.5 83.1 84.7 86.7 81.6 83.2 84.8 86.9 81.8 83.3 85.0 87.1 82.0 83.5 85.1 87.3 82.1 83.6 85.3 87.5 80.3 82.4 83.9 85.6 80.9 82.7 84.3 86.1 81.5 83.1 84.7 86.7 82.0 83.5 85.1 87.3 81.2 82.9 84.5 86.4 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 87.8 90.0 91.6 93.1 95.0 88.0 90.1 91.7 93.2 95.1 88.2 90.3 91.9 93.4 95.3 88.4 90.4 92.0 93.5 95.4 88.6 90.6 92.1 93.7 95.5 88.8 90.7 92.2 93.8 95.6 89.0 90.9 92.3 94.0 95.7 89.1 91.0 92.5 94.2 95.8 89.3 91.1 92.6 94.3 95.9 89.5 91.3 92.7 94.5 96.0 89.7 91.4 92.8 94.6 96.0 89.8 91.5 93.0 94.8 96.1 88.0 90.1 91.7 93.2 95.1 88.6 90.6 92.1 93.7 95.5 89.1 91.0 92.5 94.2 95.8 89.7 91.4 92.8 94.6 96.0 88.8 90.8 92.3 93.9 95.6 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 96.1 96.2 97.3 99.1 100.2 96.1 96.2 97.5 99.2 100.3 96.1 96.3 97.6 99.3 100.4 96.1 96.3 97.8 99.4 100.5 96.1 96.4 97.9 99.5 100.6 96.1 96.5 98.1 99.6 100.7 96.1 96.6 98.2 99.7 100.8 96.1 96.7 98.4 99.8 100.8 96.1 96.8 98.5 99.8 100.9 96.1 96.9 98.7 99.9 101.0 96.1 97.0 98.8 100.0 101.0 96.2 97.2 99.0 100.1 101.1 96.1 96.2 97.5 99.2 100.3 96.1 96.4 97.9 99.5 100.6 96.1 96.7 98.4 99.8 100.8 96.1 97.0 98.8 100.0 101.0 96.1 96.6 98.1 99.6 100.7 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 101.1 101.9 103.8 105.6 107.0 101.2 102.0 103.9 105.7 107.1 101.2 102.1 104.1 105.8 107.2 101.3 102.3 104.3 105.9 107.3 101.3 102.4 104.4 106.1 107.4 101.3 102.6 104.6 106.2 107.5 101.4 102.8 104.7 106.3 107.6 101.4 102.9 104.9 106.4 107.7 101.5 103.1 105.0 106.5 107.8 101.6 103.3 105.2 106.6 107.9 101.7 103.5 105.3 106.8 108.0 101.8 103.6 105.4 106.9 108.2 101.2 102.0 103.9 105.7 107.1 101.3 102.4 104.4 106.1 107.4 101.4 102.9 104.9 106.4 107.7 101.7 103.5 105.3 106.8 108.0 101.4 102.7 104.6 106.2 107.5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 108.3 109.6 111.6 114.6 117.6 108.4 109.7 111.8 114.8 117.9 108.5 109.8 112.1 115.0 118.3 108.6 110.0 112.3 115.3 118.6 108.7 110.1 112.6 115.5 119.0 108.8 110.2 112.8 115.7 119.4 108.9 110.4 113.1 116.0 119.8 109.0 110.6 113.4 116.2 120.2 109.1 110.8 113.6 116.5 120.6 109.3 111.0 113.9 116.7 121.0 109.4 111.2 114.1 117.0 121.4 109.5 111.4 114.3 117.3 121.8 108.4 109.7 111.8 114.8 117.9 108.7 110.1 112.6 115.5 119.0 109.0 110.6 113.4 116.2 120.2 109.4 111.2 114.1 117.0 121.4 108.9 110.4 113.0 115.9 119.6 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 122.2 126.0 128.8 130.5 131.8 122.5 126.3 129.0 130.6 131.9 122.9 126.6 129.2 130.7 131.9 123.3 126.8 129.4 130.8 132.0 123.6 127.1 129.5 130.9 132.0 123.9 127.3 129.6 131.0 132.0 124.3 127.6 129.8 131.2 132.0 124.6 127.8 129.9 131.3 132.0 124.9 128.0 130.0 131.4 132.0 125.2 128.3 130.2 131.5 131.9 125.5 128.5 130.3 131.6 131.8 125.7 128.7 130.4 131.7 131.7 122.5 126.3 129.0 130.6 131.9 123.6 127.1 129.5 130.9 132.0 124.6 127.8 129.9 131.3 132.0 125.4 128.5 130.3 131.6 131.8 124.0 127.4 129.7 131.1 131.9 2003 2004 131.6 131.1 131.5 131.1 131.5 131.1 131.4 131.2 131.3 131.2 131.2 131.2 131.1 131.3 131.1 131.3 131.1 131.3 131.0 131.4 131.0 131.4 131.0 131.5 131.1 131.3 131.2 131.1 131.3 131.0 131.2 Utilization (percent) 1974 1975 1976 1977 87.4 77.3 78.8 81.1 86.8 75.4 79.3 82.0 86.5 74.5 79.2 82.9 86.2 74.4 79.6 83.4 86.5 74.2 79.7 83.8 86.1 74.6 79.5 84.1 86.0 75.3 79.7 84.2 85.2 75.9 80.1 84.0 84.9 76.8 80.1 84.1 84.4 76.9 80.0 84.2 81.5 77.0 81.0 84.0 78.4 77.8 81.7 83.8 86.9 75.7 79.1 82.0 86.3 74.4 79.6 83.8 85.4 76.0 80.0 84.1 81.5 77.2 80.9 84.0 85.0 75.8 79.9 83.5 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 82.4 85.8 84.1 80.6 75.3 82.5 86.1 84.0 80.1 76.5 83.9 86.2 83.5 80.3 75.8 85.3 85.2 81.7 79.7 75.0 85.4 85.6 79.4 80.1 74.3 85.7 85.3 78.3 80.4 73.9 85.4 85.0 77.7 80.8 73.5 85.5 84.1 77.7 80.5 72.8 85.5 84.1 78.9 79.8 72.4 86.0 84.3 79.7 79.0 71.7 86.4 84.0 81.0 78.0 71.3 86.7 84.0 81.3 76.9 70.6 82.9 86.1 83.9 80.3 75.9 85.5 85.4 79.8 80.1 74.4 85.5 84.4 78.1 80.4 72.9 86.4 84.1 80.7 77.9 71.2 85.1 85.0 80.6 79.7 73.6 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 72.0 79.3 79.7 80.3 79.3 71.4 79.5 80.0 79.6 80.2 72.0 79.7 79.9 78.9 80.2 72.8 80.1 79.8 78.8 80.6 73.3 80.3 79.7 78.9 81.0 73.7 80.4 79.6 78.7 81.2 74.8 80.5 79.0 78.9 81.6 75.7 80.4 79.2 78.6 82.0 76.7 80.1 79.5 78.6 82.1 77.2 79.9 79.1 78.9 83.2 77.4 80.1 79.2 79.2 83.5 77.7 80.1 80.0 79.7 83.8 71.8 79.5 79.9 79.6 79.9 73.3 80.3 79.7 78.8 80.9 75.7 80.4 79.2 78.7 81.9 77.4 80.0 79.4 79.3 83.5 74.6 80.0 79.6 79.1 81.6 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.8 85.5 82.7 80.1 79.0 84.1 85.0 83.3 79.4 79.5 84.2 85.2 83.5 78.8 80.0 84.6 84.9 83.3 78.9 80.4 84.4 84.2 83.2 79.5 80.6 84.5 84.1 83.3 80.2 80.4 84.6 83.0 83.0 80.1 80.9 85.0 83.6 83.1 80.1 80.4 84.6 83.2 83.1 80.7 80.4 85.0 83.0 82.4 80.5 80.8 85.1 83.0 81.2 80.2 81.0 85.4 83.4 80.5 79.7 80.9 84.1 85.2 83.2 79.4 79.5 84.5 84.4 83.3 79.5 80.5 84.7 83.3 83.1 80.3 80.6 85.1 83.1 81.4 80.1 80.9 84.6 84.0 82.7 79.9 80.4 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 81.2 82.4 84.7 81.8 83.2 81.3 82.3 84.4 82.7 83.7 81.2 82.9 84.1 82.2 83.6 81.4 83.0 83.7 82.7 83.3 80.9 83.3 83.5 82.9 83.1 81.0 83.7 83.5 83.3 83.1 81.2 83.6 82.8 82.8 83.2 81.1 83.7 83.6 83.0 83.5 81.2 83.6 83.5 83.2 83.9 81.7 84.0 82.9 82.8 84.2 81.9 84.2 82.8 83.2 84.2 82.2 84.8 82.9 83.4 84.0 81.2 82.5 84.4 82.2 83.5 81.1 83.3 83.6 83.0 83.2 81.2 83.6 83.3 83.0 83.5 81.9 84.3 82.9 83.2 84.1 81.4 83.5 83.5 82.8 83.6 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 83.9 82.2 81.9 79.1 76.1 83.7 82.1 81.8 78.5 75.9 83.5 82.0 82.0 78.2 76.3 83.7 81.7 82.2 78.1 76.5 83.7 82.0 82.3 77.8 76.7 82.8 81.5 82.1 77.3 77.2 82.1 81.6 81.5 77.0 77.1 83.3 81.9 81.0 76.9 77.0 82.7 81.3 81.1 76.5 76.9 83.1 82.0 80.6 76.1 76.5 82.5 82.0 80.3 75.6 76.5 82.3 82.5 79.9 75.6 76.2 83.7 82.1 81.9 78.6 76.1 83.4 81.7 82.2 77.7 76.8 82.7 81.6 81.2 76.8 77.0 82.6 82.2 80.2 75.8 76.4 83.1 81.9 81.4 77.2 76.6 2003 2004 76.3 77.6 76.4 78.3 76.0 78.0 75.3 78.4 75.3 78.8 75.6 78.5 76.0 79.0 75.9 79.0 76.4 78.8 76.5 79.4 77.3 79.5 77.5 76.2 78.0 75.4 78.6 76.1 78.9 77.1 76.2 NOTE. Estimates from September 2004 through November 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 26 Table 9A INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual3 IP (percent change) 1974 1975 1976 1977 -1.0 -1.9 1.3 -.3 -.5 -2.9 1.3 1.6 -.2 -1.3 .1 1.4 -.2 -.2 .8 .9 .5 .1 .3 .7 .0 .9 -.1 .7 -.1 1.5 .7 .1 -.5 .9 .6 .5 -.2 1.7 .0 .1 -.7 .4 .0 .3 -3.0 .2 1.3 .1 -4.6 1.3 1.0 1.0 -4.6 -28.7 13.1 9.9 -.7 -6.5 5.9 13.3 -1.3 14.3 4.7 4.7 -16.8 10.0 5.6 3.7 -1.0 -10.5 8.4 7.8 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 -1.6 -1.1 .3 -.5 -2.4 .3 .4 -.2 -.7 2.5 1.7 .4 -.9 .3 -.8 1.5 -1.5 -2.2 .4 -.7 .3 1.1 -3.2 .5 -.3 .6 -.1 -1.6 -.6 -.3 -.1 .0 -1.0 .2 -.3 .4 -1.5 .6 .0 -.7 .4 .2 1.7 -.7 -.5 .7 .2 1.7 -1.2 -1.2 .8 -.4 1.8 -1.2 -.8 .8 .3 .2 -1.8 -.6 -.7 .4 -.4 -.4 -10.1 12.9 -1.8 -20.1 2.1 -3.0 3.2 -2.4 -8.4 -1.0 -4.9 7.9 -1.5 18.7 -11.5 -9.6 5.1 1.9 -4.9 .1 -6.5 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 2.5 1.8 -.5 1.3 -.4 -.2 .9 -.2 -.7 1.4 .9 .4 .8 -.3 .0 1.1 .3 -.2 .3 .4 1.3 .1 .1 .1 .7 .7 .3 .1 -.2 .3 1.3 .4 -.4 .2 .6 .9 .0 .6 .2 .3 1.6 -.3 .2 .2 .4 1.1 .4 -.3 .3 1.5 .2 .3 .6 .4 .6 .2 .3 .4 .8 .5 8.0 11.5 -.2 4.8 4.9 11.3 4.3 1.8 -.5 5.8 14.3 2.1 .5 1.2 5.5 10.9 1.9 2.5 4.3 10.3 3.6 8.4 1.4 2.2 4.6 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 -.2 .8 -.3 -.8 -.8 .2 -1.1 1.4 -.8 .8 .3 .0 .3 -.8 .9 .7 .0 -.2 .3 .4 -.2 -.9 .0 .7 .6 .0 .1 .2 1.1 .1 .0 -1.3 -.2 .3 .7 .1 .9 .3 .2 -.4 .3 -.3 -.1 1.1 -.1 .6 -.2 -.8 -.2 .4 .3 .1 -1.2 -.3 .3 .4 .1 -.8 -.3 -.3 2.1 2.0 3.3 -9.6 -1.0 3.5 -3.7 2.1 1.4 6.9 .6 -4.0 .2 7.0 2.5 4.6 -.1 -7.2 .9 1.4 4.5 .4 .0 -2.6 2.5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1.1 .1 .1 -1.3 -.1 .1 .1 -.3 1.3 1.0 -.2 1.1 -.1 -.5 .4 .5 .6 -.4 1.0 -.3 -.1 .6 -.2 .4 .2 -.2 .1 .3 .9 .5 .2 .3 -.8 .0 .3 -.2 .5 1.0 .4 1.0 .5 .0 .6 .6 .7 .7 .8 -.4 -.3 .6 .4 .5 -.2 .7 .5 .5 .9 .3 .7 .2 3.9 3.9 2.7 -1.9 5.9 1.0 7.2 -2.5 6.8 2.6 .4 3.8 .3 4.5 6.3 5.7 7.0 .9 3.7 7.4 2.6 4.4 2.5 1.6 4.9 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .5 .0 -.6 -.9 .8 -.1 .3 -.1 -.5 -.2 -.1 -.3 .6 -.4 .4 .6 .0 .2 .0 .1 .2 .7 -.1 -.4 .3 -1.0 -.6 .0 -.6 .7 -.7 .0 -.6 -.2 -.2 2.1 .8 -.8 -.3 .0 -.7 -.5 .1 -.5 -.1 .9 1.1 -.6 -.5 -.8 -.2 .3 -.7 -.3 -.1 .1 .6 -.6 .2 -.6 3.0 .2 .4 -8.0 3.2 1.3 .8 2.2 -3.4 3.1 -.7 .8 -4.3 -4.0 1.3 4.1 6.2 -5.7 -4.2 -4.6 3.5 1.4 .9 -4.9 -.3 2003 2004 .3 .0 -.3 1.1 -.3 .1 -1.0 .6 .0 .5 .5 -.2 .3 .8 -.4 .3 .9 -.4 .2 .7 1.2 .2 .0 -2.0 4.7 -4.6 4.9 2.9 3.4 5.9 -1.2 IP (1997=100) 1974 1975 1976 1977 68.5 61.0 63.4 67.1 68.2 59.2 64.2 68.2 68.0 58.5 64.3 69.2 67.9 58.4 64.8 69.8 68.2 58.4 65.0 70.3 68.3 59.0 64.9 70.8 68.2 59.9 65.4 70.9 67.8 60.4 65.8 71.2 67.7 61.4 65.8 71.3 67.2 61.7 65.8 71.5 65.2 61.8 66.6 71.5 62.2 62.6 67.3 72.3 68.2 59.6 64.0 68.1 68.1 58.6 64.9 70.3 67.9 60.6 65.7 71.1 64.8 62.0 66.6 71.8 67.3 60.2 65.3 70.3 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 71.1 75.7 75.1 72.4 67.4 71.3 75.9 75.0 71.9 69.1 72.5 76.2 74.3 72.1 68.5 73.6 75.1 72.6 72.4 68.0 73.8 75.9 70.3 72.8 67.8 74.2 75.8 69.2 72.4 67.6 74.1 75.9 68.5 72.5 67.4 74.4 74.7 68.9 72.5 66.9 74.7 74.8 70.1 72.0 66.6 75.2 75.0 71.3 71.1 65.7 75.9 74.7 72.6 70.3 65.2 76.5 74.9 72.7 69.0 64.8 71.6 75.9 74.8 72.1 68.3 73.8 75.6 70.7 72.5 67.8 74.4 75.1 69.2 72.3 66.9 75.9 74.8 72.2 70.1 65.3 73.9 75.4 71.7 71.8 67.1 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 66.4 74.0 75.9 78.3 79.0 66.3 74.6 75.7 77.7 80.1 66.9 74.9 76.4 77.5 80.1 67.6 75.2 76.3 77.7 80.4 68.5 75.3 76.4 77.8 81.0 68.9 75.5 76.4 77.7 81.2 69.9 75.8 76.1 77.8 81.7 70.5 75.8 76.6 78.0 81.9 71.6 75.5 76.7 78.1 82.3 72.4 75.8 76.5 78.4 83.5 72.5 76.1 77.0 78.7 84.0 72.7 76.3 77.3 79.3 84.4 66.5 74.5 76.0 77.8 79.7 68.3 75.3 76.4 77.7 80.9 70.7 75.7 76.5 78.0 82.0 72.5 76.1 76.9 78.8 84.0 69.5 75.4 76.4 78.1 81.6 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 84.3 87.3 84.8 83.1 83.4 84.4 86.4 86.0 82.5 84.1 84.6 86.4 86.3 81.8 84.9 85.3 86.4 86.1 82.1 85.2 85.1 85.6 86.1 82.6 85.7 85.1 85.7 86.2 83.5 85.8 85.2 84.6 86.0 83.8 86.4 85.2 85.3 86.3 83.9 86.0 85.5 85.1 86.2 84.8 85.9 86.0 84.9 85.5 84.6 86.3 86.2 85.0 84.4 84.3 86.5 86.6 85.1 83.7 84.1 86.3 84.4 86.7 85.7 82.5 84.2 85.2 85.9 86.1 82.8 85.6 85.3 85.0 86.2 84.2 86.1 86.3 85.0 84.6 84.4 86.4 85.3 85.6 85.6 83.4 85.5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 87.2 89.3 94.5 92.8 97.5 87.3 89.3 94.2 94.0 98.5 87.1 90.3 94.1 93.5 98.9 87.6 90.8 93.7 94.5 98.7 87.5 91.3 93.5 94.8 98.9 87.3 91.4 93.7 95.7 99.3 87.5 91.7 92.9 95.6 99.6 87.3 92.2 93.8 96.0 100.6 87.8 92.2 94.4 96.5 101.2 88.4 93.0 93.9 96.2 101.9 88.7 93.5 93.7 96.9 102.4 89.1 94.3 94.1 97.6 102.6 87.2 89.6 94.2 93.4 98.3 87.4 91.2 93.6 95.0 99.0 87.5 92.0 93.7 96.0 100.5 88.8 93.6 93.9 96.9 102.3 87.7 91.6 93.9 95.3 100.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 103.1 104.1 106.2 102.6 99.9 103.0 104.5 106.2 102.0 99.7 102.9 104.2 106.8 101.7 100.1 103.6 104.2 107.0 101.6 100.2 103.8 104.9 106.9 101.3 100.5 102.7 104.3 106.9 100.7 101.2 102.0 104.3 106.3 100.5 101.0 104.1 105.1 105.5 100.2 101.0 103.4 104.6 105.6 99.8 100.9 104.4 105.8 104.9 99.2 100.1 104.1 106.2 104.2 99.0 100.0 104.2 106.8 103.5 99.1 99.3 103.0 104.3 106.4 102.1 99.9 103.4 104.5 107.0 101.2 100.7 103.2 104.7 105.8 100.2 101.0 104.2 106.3 104.2 99.1 99.8 103.5 104.9 105.8 100.6 100.3 2003 2004 99.6 100.7 99.3 101.7 99.0 101.8 98.0 102.4 97.9 102.9 98.5 102.6 98.8 103.4 98.4 103.7 99.3 103.3 99.5 104.0 100.6 104.2 100.6 99.3 101.4 98.1 102.6 98.8 103.5 100.2 99.1 Year NOTE. Estimates from September 2004 through November 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 27 Table 9B CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 1997 output) 1974 1975 1976 1977 78.9 81.0 82.5 84.2 79.1 81.1 82.6 84.4 79.3 81.3 82.7 84.6 79.5 81.4 82.9 84.7 79.7 81.5 83.0 84.9 79.9 81.6 83.2 85.1 80.1 81.7 83.3 85.2 80.3 81.9 83.5 85.4 80.4 82.0 83.6 85.6 80.6 82.1 83.8 85.8 80.7 82.2 83.9 86.0 80.9 82.3 84.1 86.2 79.1 81.1 82.6 84.4 79.7 81.5 83.0 84.9 80.3 81.9 83.5 85.4 80.7 82.2 83.9 86.0 79.9 81.7 83.3 85.2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 86.4 88.7 90.7 92.6 94.4 86.6 88.9 90.8 92.8 94.5 86.8 89.0 91.0 92.9 94.6 87.0 89.2 91.1 93.1 94.7 87.2 89.4 91.3 93.3 94.8 87.3 89.6 91.4 93.4 94.9 87.5 89.7 91.6 93.6 94.9 87.7 89.9 91.8 93.7 95.0 87.9 90.1 91.9 93.9 95.0 88.1 90.2 92.1 94.0 95.1 88.3 90.4 92.3 94.1 95.1 88.5 90.5 92.4 94.3 95.1 86.6 88.9 90.8 92.8 94.5 87.2 89.4 91.3 93.3 94.8 87.7 89.9 91.8 93.7 95.0 88.3 90.4 92.3 94.1 95.1 87.4 89.6 91.5 93.5 94.8 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 95.1 95.1 96.6 98.4 99.6 95.1 95.2 96.7 98.5 99.8 95.1 95.2 96.9 98.6 99.9 95.1 95.3 97.1 98.7 100.0 95.0 95.4 97.2 98.8 100.1 95.0 95.5 97.4 98.9 100.2 95.0 95.6 97.6 99.0 100.3 95.0 95.8 97.7 99.1 100.4 95.0 95.9 97.9 99.2 100.5 95.0 96.1 98.0 99.3 100.6 95.0 96.2 98.1 99.4 100.6 95.1 96.4 98.2 99.5 100.7 95.1 95.2 96.7 98.5 99.8 95.0 95.4 97.2 98.8 100.1 95.0 95.8 97.7 99.1 100.4 95.0 96.2 98.1 99.4 100.6 95.0 95.6 97.4 98.9 100.2 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 100.7 101.5 103.6 105.6 107.0 100.7 101.6 103.8 105.7 107.1 100.8 101.8 104.0 105.8 107.2 100.8 101.9 104.1 106.0 107.3 100.8 102.1 104.3 106.1 107.5 100.8 102.3 104.5 106.2 107.6 100.9 102.5 104.7 106.3 107.7 100.9 102.7 104.8 106.5 107.9 101.0 102.9 105.0 106.6 108.0 101.1 103.1 105.1 106.7 108.1 101.2 103.3 105.3 106.8 108.3 101.3 103.5 105.4 106.9 108.4 100.7 101.6 103.8 105.7 107.1 100.8 102.1 104.3 106.1 107.5 101.0 102.7 104.8 106.5 107.9 101.2 103.3 105.3 106.8 108.3 100.9 102.4 104.6 106.3 107.7 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 108.6 110.2 112.3 115.6 119.0 108.7 110.3 112.5 115.8 119.3 108.9 110.4 112.8 116.1 119.7 109.0 110.5 113.1 116.4 120.1 109.1 110.7 113.3 116.6 120.5 109.3 110.9 113.6 116.9 121.0 109.4 111.0 113.9 117.2 121.4 109.5 111.2 114.2 117.4 121.8 109.6 111.4 114.5 117.7 122.3 109.8 111.6 114.8 118.0 122.8 109.9 111.8 115.0 118.3 123.2 110.0 112.1 115.3 118.6 123.7 108.7 110.3 112.5 115.8 119.3 109.1 110.7 113.3 116.6 120.5 109.5 111.2 114.2 117.4 121.8 109.9 111.8 115.0 118.3 123.2 109.3 111.0 113.8 117.1 121.2 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 124.1 128.4 131.8 133.8 134.2 124.5 128.8 132.1 133.9 134.2 124.9 129.1 132.3 133.9 134.2 125.3 129.4 132.5 134.0 134.2 125.7 129.7 132.7 134.1 134.1 126.1 130.0 132.8 134.1 134.1 126.5 130.3 133.0 134.2 134.0 126.8 130.6 133.2 134.2 134.0 127.2 130.8 133.3 134.2 133.9 127.5 131.1 133.4 134.2 133.8 127.8 131.4 133.6 134.3 133.8 128.1 131.6 133.7 134.3 133.7 124.5 128.8 132.1 133.9 134.2 125.7 129.7 132.7 134.1 134.1 126.8 130.6 133.2 134.2 134.0 127.8 131.4 133.6 134.2 133.8 126.2 130.1 132.9 134.1 134.0 2003 2004 133.6 132.9 133.5 132.9 133.4 132.9 133.4 132.9 133.3 132.9 133.2 133.0 133.1 133.0 133.1 133.0 133.0 133.0 133.0 133.0 133.0 133.0 132.9 133.5 132.9 133.3 132.9 133.1 133.0 133.0 133.2 Utilization (percent) 1974 1975 1976 1977 86.9 75.3 76.9 79.7 86.2 73.0 77.8 80.8 85.8 72.0 77.7 81.8 85.4 71.7 78.2 82.4 85.6 71.7 78.3 82.8 85.4 72.2 78.1 83.2 85.1 73.2 78.5 83.1 84.5 73.8 78.8 83.4 84.2 74.9 78.7 83.2 83.4 75.1 78.5 83.3 80.7 75.2 79.4 83.2 76.9 76.0 80.0 83.8 86.3 73.4 77.4 80.7 85.5 71.9 78.2 82.8 84.6 74.0 78.7 83.2 80.3 75.4 79.3 83.4 84.2 73.7 78.4 82.6 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 82.3 85.3 82.8 78.1 71.4 82.4 85.4 82.5 77.5 73.1 83.5 85.6 81.6 77.6 72.4 84.6 84.1 79.7 77.7 71.8 84.6 84.9 77.0 78.0 71.5 85.0 84.7 75.6 77.4 71.2 84.7 84.5 74.8 77.5 71.0 84.9 83.1 75.1 77.3 70.4 85.0 83.1 76.2 76.7 70.0 85.4 83.1 77.4 75.7 69.2 85.9 82.6 78.6 74.7 68.6 86.4 82.7 78.6 73.2 68.2 82.7 85.5 82.3 77.7 72.3 84.7 84.6 77.4 77.7 71.5 84.8 83.6 75.4 77.2 70.5 85.9 82.8 78.2 74.5 68.6 84.6 84.1 78.3 76.8 70.7 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 69.9 77.8 78.6 79.6 79.3 69.7 78.4 78.3 79.0 80.3 70.3 78.7 78.8 78.6 80.2 71.1 78.9 78.6 78.8 80.4 72.1 78.9 78.5 78.8 80.9 72.6 79.0 78.5 78.6 81.0 73.5 79.2 78.0 78.7 81.4 74.2 79.1 78.4 78.7 81.6 75.4 78.7 78.4 78.8 81.9 76.2 78.9 78.1 78.9 83.1 76.3 79.0 78.4 79.2 83.5 76.4 79.2 78.7 79.7 83.9 70.0 78.3 78.6 79.1 79.9 71.9 78.9 78.5 78.7 80.8 74.4 79.0 78.2 78.7 81.6 76.3 79.0 78.4 79.3 83.5 73.1 78.8 78.4 78.9 81.5 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 83.7 86.0 81.8 78.7 78.0 83.8 85.0 82.8 78.0 78.5 84.0 84.9 83.0 77.3 79.2 84.6 84.7 82.6 77.5 79.4 84.4 83.8 82.5 77.9 79.8 84.4 83.8 82.5 78.7 79.7 84.4 82.5 82.2 78.8 80.2 84.4 83.1 82.3 78.8 79.7 84.6 82.7 82.1 79.6 79.6 85.0 82.3 81.3 79.3 79.8 85.2 82.3 80.2 79.0 79.9 85.4 82.2 79.4 78.7 79.6 83.8 85.3 82.5 78.0 78.6 84.5 84.1 82.6 78.0 79.6 84.5 82.8 82.2 79.1 79.8 85.2 82.3 80.3 79.0 79.8 84.5 83.6 81.9 78.5 79.4 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 80.3 81.0 84.1 80.3 82.0 80.3 81.0 83.7 81.1 82.5 80.0 81.8 83.4 80.5 82.6 80.4 82.1 82.9 81.2 82.2 80.1 82.5 82.5 81.3 82.0 79.9 82.5 82.5 81.8 82.1 80.0 82.6 81.6 81.6 82.0 79.8 82.9 82.2 81.7 82.5 80.0 82.8 82.4 82.0 82.8 80.5 83.3 81.9 81.5 83.0 80.7 83.6 81.5 81.9 83.1 81.0 84.2 81.6 82.3 82.9 80.2 81.3 83.7 80.7 82.4 80.1 82.4 82.6 81.4 82.1 79.9 82.8 82.1 81.8 82.5 80.8 83.7 81.6 81.9 83.0 80.3 82.5 82.5 81.5 82.5 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 83.1 81.1 80.6 76.7 74.4 82.7 81.1 80.4 76.2 74.3 82.4 80.7 80.7 75.9 74.6 82.7 80.5 80.8 75.8 74.7 82.5 80.9 80.6 75.5 74.9 81.5 80.3 80.5 75.1 75.5 80.7 80.1 79.9 74.9 75.4 82.1 80.5 79.2 74.7 75.4 81.3 80.0 79.2 74.3 75.3 81.9 80.7 78.6 73.9 74.8 81.5 80.8 78.0 73.7 74.7 81.3 81.2 77.5 73.8 74.3 82.7 81.0 80.6 76.3 74.4 82.2 80.6 80.6 75.5 75.0 81.4 80.2 79.4 74.6 75.4 81.6 80.9 78.0 73.8 74.6 82.0 80.7 79.7 75.1 74.9 2003 2004 74.5 75.7 74.4 76.5 74.2 76.6 73.5 77.0 73.5 77.4 73.9 77.2 74.2 77.8 73.9 78.0 74.7 77.6 74.8 78.2 75.7 78.3 75.7 74.4 76.3 73.6 77.2 74.3 77.8 75.4 74.4 NOTE. Estimates from September 2004 through November 2004 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 28 Table 10 ANNUAL PROPORTIONS IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY Item 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 56.4 27.7 7.8 3.6 .4 1.4 2.4 56.9 27.6 7.9 3.7 .4 1.4 2.4 58.1 28.0 7.9 3.7 .4 1.4 2.4 57.7 28.2 8.0 3.9 .4 1.4 2.4 57.6 28.5 7.8 3.7 .4 1.4 2.3 59.1 30.1 8.1 4.0 .4 1.4 2.3 58.8 30.9 8.9 4.6 .3 1.5 2.4 58.4 30.9 8.8 4.7 .4 1.4 2.3 19.9 16.3 8.7 1.8 3.7 1.7 3.7 19.7 16.3 8.7 1.6 3.7 1.8 3.4 20.1 16.9 9.2 1.5 3.8 1.9 3.3 20.2 16.7 9.1 1.3 3.8 1.9 3.5 20.7 16.9 9.3 1.2 3.9 2.0 3.8 22.0 18.1 10.0 1.1 4.5 2.0 3.8 22.0 18.1 9.7 .9 4.9 2.0 3.9 22.1 17.9 9.7 .8 4.9 2.0 4.2 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 11.2 1.8 3.7 5.7 2.0 11.8 2.1 4.0 5.8 1.9 12.3 2.5 4.0 5.8 1.9 11.9 2.3 4.1 5.5 1.8 11.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 1.5 11.2 2.0 3.8 5.4 1.8 10.3 1.9 3.0 5.3 1.8 9.9 1.7 3.1 5.1 2.0 Construction supplies Business supplies 4.1 11.0 4.1 11.1 4.3 11.2 4.3 11.2 4.3 11.2 4.3 11.3 4.3 11.2 4.3 11.0 43.6 33.4 21.4 4.1 8.1 9.2 12.1 1.1 3.0 4.8 10.2 43.1 33.8 21.7 4.2 8.3 9.2 12.1 1.1 2.9 4.9 9.3 41.9 33.3 21.4 4.2 8.2 9.1 11.9 1.0 2.8 4.6 8.6 42.3 33.1 21.4 4.4 8.1 8.9 11.7 1.0 2.9 4.5 9.2 42.4 32.3 20.9 4.1 8.1 8.6 11.4 .9 2.8 4.3 10.1 40.9 30.8 19.6 3.8 7.3 8.4 11.3 .8 2.8 4.2 10.0 41.2 30.9 19.3 4.1 6.7 8.5 11.6 .8 2.8 4.5 10.3 41.6 30.2 18.7 4.1 6.2 8.4 11.5 .7 2.7 4.5 11.4 321 327 331 332 333 334 84.4 80.3 45.5 1.5 2.2 3.0 6.0 6.2 10.0 85.7 81.2 46.5 1.5 2.2 3.1 6.0 6.2 10.4 86.5 81.8 47.1 1.5 2.3 2.9 6.1 6.2 10.3 85.8 81.0 46.6 1.6 2.3 2.8 6.0 5.8 10.3 84.5 79.6 45.5 1.4 2.2 2.5 6.1 5.9 10.3 84.1 79.2 44.2 1.4 2.3 2.3 5.9 5.6 9.2 83.8 79.0 43.7 1.5 2.3 2.4 5.8 5.4 7.9 82.5 77.7 42.7 1.5 2.2 2.5 5.6 5.2 7.6 335 3361–3 2.6 6.5 2.6 6.7 2.6 6.6 2.5 7.0 2.5 6.6 2.4 6.5 2.2 7.4 2.1 7.5 3364–9 337 339 3.2 1.5 2.8 3.5 1.6 2.8 4.1 1.7 2.8 3.8 1.7 2.8 3.3 1.7 2.9 3.8 1.7 3.1 3.6 1.8 3.3 3.5 1.7 3.2 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.7 10.1 1.7 1.9 3.3 2.7 1.6 9.9 3.6 34.7 10.1 1.7 1.8 3.2 2.6 1.6 10.1 3.7 34.7 10.6 1.6 1.6 3.2 2.6 1.5 9.9 3.7 34.4 10.4 1.5 1.4 3.2 2.6 1.7 9.6 3.8 34.1 10.7 1.4 1.3 3.2 2.6 1.9 9.4 3.7 35.0 11.4 1.3 1.2 3.1 2.6 1.7 9.8 3.7 35.3 11.3 1.3 1.0 3.1 2.5 1.6 10.6 3.8 35.0 11.4 1.2 .8 3.1 2.3 1.9 10.6 3.7 1133,5111 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.8 21 2211,2 2211 2212 6.0 9.6 8.1 1.4 5.4 9.0 7.7 1.3 4.8 8.7 7.5 1.2 5.5 8.6 7.4 1.2 6.5 9.0 7.6 1.4 6.4 9.5 8.1 1.4 6.4 9.7 8.3 1.5 7.6 9.9 8.2 1.6 Total IP MARKET GROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy INDUSTRY GROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas NOTE. The IP proportion data are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall IP change between the reference year and the following year. For example, a 1 percent increase in durable goods manufacturing between 2003 and 2004 would account for a 0.427 percent increase in total IP. 29 EXPLANATORY NOTE The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly indexes on the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. More detailed descriptions of industrial production, capacity utilization, and electric power are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 1997. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 300 individual series based on the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html) . Changes in output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of the statistical tables, see below. Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on either production-worker hours or electric power use by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on electric power use are described below. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: IA m + A I m–1 ȍ Ǹȍ Imp m–1 Im–1p m–1 ȍ Imp m ȍ Im–1p m The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 5 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by ½ percentage point (0.05 x 10% = 0.5%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa ). Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 55 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about 84 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 95 percent in the third month, and 96 percent in the fourth month. Data availability by data type is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2003) Month of estimate Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 26 41 50 50 Production-worker hours 35 35 35 35 Electric power use 0 12 12 12 IP data received 61 87 96 97 IP data estimated 39 13 4 3 NOTE—The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (26 percent out of total of 48 percent). Of the 26 percent, about two-thirds (17 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of the first month of a quarter. About 4 percent of the source data for monthly IP—all physical product measures—are available too late for direct inclusion in the current index and are incorporated at the time of an annual historical revision. 30 Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through September 2004; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 2004. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent during the 1987–2003 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–2003 period. In most cases (about 85 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. CAPACITY UTILIZATION Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 85 detailed industries (67 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries. Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 18 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries account for a bit less than 78 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap_notes.html). Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC (currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the SPC. Perspective. Over the 1972–2003 period, the average total industry utilization rate is 81.1 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate has been 79.9 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. ELECTRIC POWER Coverage. Electric power data for sales by utilities to industry users and for electric power produced by cogenerators (manufacturing and mining firms that produce electricity for their own use or to sell to a utility) are generally collected at the 4-digit NAICS and 3-digit SIC level for mining and manufacturing. Aggregates for 3-digit industries, as well as for total mining, durable, nondurable, total manufacturing and total industrial electric power use, are computed. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. An aggregate showing total industry excluding nuclear nondefense is shown separately because the value-added proportion for the nondefense nuclear material series (part of NAICS 3251) in total IP is considerably less than its share of total electric power use. In addition, aggregates for utility sales to industrial users and industry generation are computed. While only the major aggregates are shown in the release, data for the 3- and 4-digit industries are available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Source Data. Electric power data are collected from a sample of utilities and cogenerators covering all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. The primary criterion for inclusion of a utility in the panel is whether the utility provides electric power to industrial customers. A comparison of Federal Reserve kilowatt-hour aggregates to estimates from the 1997 Census of Manufactures (the most recent available) and recent reporting panel statistics suggests the Federal Reserve data cover about 50 percent of the overall sales to manufacturing in that year. The cogeneration panel covers about 50 percent of cogeneration used directly by manufacturers. In order to provide more complete coverage and correct for any shortcomings of the survey, the series are benchmarked at the 4-digit industry level to the latest available data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufactures. Methodology. The data we receive from utilities and cogenerators are edited for anomalies and aggregated, using self weights, to the 4-digit NAICS industry levels and above. Where reports are late or unavailable for some reason, responses are estimated. Seasonal Adjustment. Series are seasonal adjusted at the 4-digit NAICS level, with seasonally-adjusted aggregates typically computed as sums of seasonally adjusted components. The seasonal adjustment procedure (Census X-12 program) is used without trading-day adjustments because the reporting periods of the various utilities are not the same. A leap year adjustment is also made where appropriate. 31 REFERENCES AND RELEASE DATES References. The annual revision published in December 2004 will be described in an article published in an upcoming Federal Reserve Bulletin. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital_stock_doc-latest.pdf. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2005: January 14, February 16, March 16, April 15, May 17, June 15, July 15, August 16, September 14, October 14, November 17, and December 15. 32
