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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) 2006 Historical and Annual Revision For release at 2:00 p.m. (EST) December 11, 2006 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The 2006 Annual Revision The Federal Reserve has revised the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. Although data from January 1972 through October 2006 are affected, most of the revision occurs from 2003 onward. Measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, industrial production is now reported to have increased more slowly in 2003 and in 2004. The change in output was revised up for 2005 and revised down slightly for 2006.1 The revision to industrial production incorporates the Census Bureau’s 2004 and 2005 Annual Surveys of Manufactures (ASM), which show slightly lower annual levels of output than previously estimated. In addition to the 2004 and 2005 ASMs, other new source data for this year’s statistical revision to the IP indexes include selected 2005 Current Industrial Reports from the U.S. Census Bureau, new annual data on mineral extraction for 2004 and 2005 from the U.S. Geological Survey, and updated deflators from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The new monthly production estimates reflect the incorporation of updated seasonal factors and monthly source data that became available (or were revised) after the closing of the regular four-month reporting window. The revision to capacity utilization was relatively small. In the fourth quarter of 2005, the rate of capacity utilization for total industry was revised up 1/4 percentage point, to 80.7 percent. As of the third quarter of 2006, capacity utilization was only slightly less than previously estimated; at 82.3 percent, the rate was 1.3 percentage points above the 1972–2005 (long-run) average.2 In 2004, the operating rate for manufacturing is about 1/2 percentage point lower than previously estimated. However, factory utilization rates are only a bit lower, on average, in 2005 and in 2006. For the 2003–06 period, utilization rates were revised down in a number of manufacturing industries, including computers, communications equipment, and textiles. Noticeable upward revisions occurred in the semiconductor and chemical industries. In mining, operating rates were revised up from 2003 through 2006. In electric and gas utilities, the capacity utilization rate was little changed in 2003, up a touch in 2004, and lower in 2005 and in 2006. The revised capacity utilization rates incorporate the results from the Census Bureau’s 2005 Survey of Plant Capacity for the fourth quarter of that year. In addition, the revisions to the capacity indexes and capacity utilization rates incorporate the revised production indexes and newly available data on industrial capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Energy Information Agency of the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations. RESULTS OF THE REVISION The tables show the summary statistics for the annual revision. Tables 1A and 1B show the monthly, quarterly, and annual average levels and rates of change for industrial production and for capacity for 1976 through 2006. Tables 2 and 3 show the revised rates of change from 2002 through 2006 of industrial production for market groups, industry groups, special aggregates, and selected detail. Table 4 shows revised rates of change 1 For 2006, the differences between the rates of change are calculated from annualized rates of change between the fourth quarter of 2005 and the third quarter of 2006. 2 These comparisons use quarterly average data. 1 for selected detail in industrial production, and table 5 shows the rates of change in capacity. Tables 2 through 5 also show the difference between the revised and earlier rates of change. Table 6 shows the revised capacity utilization rates for the final quarters of recent years (the third quarter was used for 2006) and the difference between the revised and previous rates. Tables 7A, 7B, 8A, 8B, 9A, and 9B report the revised production, capacity, and utilization series for manufacturing, for total industry excluding selected high-technology industries, and for manufacturing excluding selected high-technology industries. Table 10 reports the annual proportions in industrial production by market and industry groups for 1998 to 2005. Industrial Production The gains in total industrial production were revised down 0.4 percentage point in 2003, down 1.4 percentage points in 2004, up 0.2 percentage point in 2005, and down 0.1 percentage point in 2006.3 Manufacturing production has expanded in each year since 2002, albeit at a somewhat slower rate than initially reported, on balance. Increases in the output of durable goods have remained robust in recent years despite downward revisions in 2003 and in 2004. For nondurable goods, the increases for 2003 through 2005 were revised up an average of 3/4 percentage point per year. The estimate for 2006 was little changed. Across industry groups (table 2), downward revisions in the durable goods sector were widespread. Increases in the output of computer and electronic products were revised down from 2003 through 2005, and declines in the production of motor vehicles and parts over this period are now reported to have been steeper than originally estimated. The output of machinery was revised down substantially in 2004. Within the nondurable goods sector, the indexes for apparel and leather goods and for plastics and rubber products were revised down for the period since 2002. The cumulative increases since 2002 for all the other major components of nondurable goods are now higher than previously reported. Regarding a few special aggregates (table 3), the rates of growth for selected high-technology industries—computers and peripheral equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components—were revised down in 2003 and in 2004 but up in 2005 and in 2006, adjustments that left the level lower overall. However, the aggregate index masks different movements in the major components: A higher level of output of computers and peripheral equipment was more than offset by lower output levels for communications equipment and for semiconductors and related equipment. Production by Market Group Among the major market groups, the increase in the production index for final products and nonindustrial supplies was revised down for 2004. For 2005, the growth rate in this index remains unchanged. For 2006, it was revised down 0.3 percentage point. Growth in the output of consumer goods was revised up in 2005 but down in 2006. Within durable consumer goods, the output of automotive products was revised down for 2003 through 2006. In contrast, the production gains for home electronics in 2003, 2004, and 2006 were revised up appreciably. Among producers of consumer nondurables, the indexes for foods and tobacco, chemical products, and consumer energy products were revised up overall. The indexes for clothing and for paper products are now noticeably lower than estimated previously. The production of business equipment is now reported to have been weaker from 2003 to 2006, largely because of downward revisions to the index for information processing equipment. In addition, the production of defense and space equipment also increased less from 2003 to 2006 than reported initially. 3 In this section, all the rates of change are calculated from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the reference year, except for 2006, for which the rates of change are from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2006 and annualized. 2 The indexes for construction supplies and for business supplies were both revised down in 2004, but the increases in 2005 are now larger. This year, the rise in the output of construction supplies has slowed noticeably, while the production of business supplies has recorded another strong gain. Despite a downward revision in 2004, the level of the output of materials is currently estimated to be a touch higher, on balance, over the entire revision period. Capacity Total industrial capacity is estimated to have fallen 3/4 percentage point more rapidly in 2003 than previously reported and to have risen 1/2 percentage point more slowly in both 2004 and 2005. Capacity is estimated to have increased nearly 2-1/2 percent in 2006, roughly 1/2 percentage point more quickly than initially published. The contour of manufacturing capacity and the revisions to that contour are similar to those for total industry. The revision shows that, relative to previous reports, aggregate capacity for the selected high-technology industries rose less quickly from 2003 to 2005 but increased more rapidly in 2006. Excluding high-technology industries, manufacturing capacity declined in 2003 and 2004 and expanded in 2005 and 2006; the rates of increase were marked down in each year except 2005, which was unrevised. Capacity at mines is still estimated to have contracted from 2003 to 2005 but is now shown to have increased in 2006. Capacity at electric and gas utilities was revised upward in 2006 but was little revised in previous years. By stage of processing, capacity in the crude stage fell from 2003 to 2005 and is estimated to have edged up 0.3 percent in 2006. Capacity at the primary and semifinished stages declined in 2003 but rose from 2004 through 2006. Capacity expanded from 2003 to 2006 for finished goods. Capacity Utilization The capacity utilization rate for total industry was 82.3 percent in the third quarter of 2006, 1.3 percentage points above its 1972–2005 average and 0.2 percentage point lower than reported earlier. The utilization rate for total industry was revised up 1/4 percentage point in the fourth quarters of 2003 and 2005 and revised down 0.4 percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2004. The manufacturing operating rate was 80.9 percent in the third quarter of 2006, 0.3 percentage point below the previous estimate and 1.1 percentage points above its 1972–2005 average. The rates for 2004 and 2005 were also marked down, by 0.6 percentage point and by 0.2 percentage point, respectively; the rate for 2003 was revised up 0.3 percentage point. Utilization rates for durable goods manufacturers were lower from 2004 to 2006 than previously published. Some of the largest downward revisions were in machinery and in electrical equipment, appliances, and components. Revisions generally were upward for wood products, primary metals, fabricated metal products, and furniture. Utilization rates for nondurable goods industries were revised upward; the largest revisions were in textile mills, petroleum and coal products, and chemicals. The largest downward revisions were in food, apparel and leather, and plastics and rubber products. Capacity utilization in the other (non-NAICS) manufacturing industries was revised upward in 2003 and 2004 and downward in 2005 and 2006. The operating rates for computer and electronic products and for communications equipment were also lowered noticeably in recent years, while utilization in the semiconductor industry was revised up substantially. On balance, the aggregate of selected high-technology industries now shows that utilization was lower in 2004 and 2006 but higher in 2003 and 2005. In the third quarter of 2006, the operating rate was 78.5 percent, 2 percentage points above the fourth quarter of 2005. 3 Capacity utilization in mining was revised up between 2003 and 2006, mainly because of higher operating rates in the oil and gas extraction industries. As of the third quarter of 2006, the utilization rate for mining is now estimated to be 91.1 percent, up 6.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2005. In electric and gas utilities, capacity utilization rates were revised down in 2005 and in 2006 but were little changed in previous years. At 86.0 percent in the third quarter of 2006, the operating rate for utilities was 0.8 percentage point below its long-run average. TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF THE REVISION The benchmark indexes for manufacturing—defined for each six-digit NAICS industry as nominal gross output divided by a price index—were updated to include new as well as revised information from the 2003, the 2004, and the 2005 Annual Surveys of Manufactures. This revision also incorporates the 2005 Survey of Plant Capacity, other annual industry reports, recent information on prices, and revised monthly source data on physical product and production-worker hours. As mentioned earlier, the benchmark indexes for most industries incorporate updated price indexes from the industry output program of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, the price indexes for semiconductors and the price indexes for most components of communications equipment (NAICS 3342) are constructed by the Federal Reserve from alternative sources. These indexes along with others for transmission equipment (fiber-optic equipment), networking equipment (routers, switches, hubs, and wireless equipment), central office equipment, and for private branch exchange equipment were extended an additional year. In addition, new source data were introduced for the estimation of price indexes for mobile phones and related equipment and for satellites and related equipment. Gartner, a technology research firm, was the source for the data on prices and the value of sales for mobile phones, base stations, and cellular switching equipment that were used to construct an annual price index for the 1994–2005 period. For satellites and related equipment, data on satellite capacity costs from Futron Corporation and data on equipment for global positioning systems from the NPD Group were used to construct a price index for the 2001–2005 period. Price indexes for these products were extended back to 1972 using a bias adjustment to the relevant producer price indexes (PPIs) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For the remaining series, PPIs were used. The new product prices for communications equipment declined more than estimated earlier. Accordingly, the output of communications equipment is now shown to have risen about 6 percent more per year, on average, from 1972 through 2005. The yearly pattern was little changed; exceptions were 2004 and 2005, when upward revisions from faster falling prices were more than offset by downward revisions caused by benchmarking to the 2004 and the 2005 ASM. The revised level of output for communications equipment in October 2006 now stands 58 percent higher than its 2002 level compared with 95 percent before the revision. As in 2003, the 2004 and 2005 ASMs did not provide data for all six-digit NAICS industries but combined some of them into higher-level industry aggregates. The benchmark indexes for manufacturing IP are calculated from gross output for six-digit industries and then aggregated to the IP industry level using proportions based on value added. To maintain benchmark references that were consistent over time, the Federal Reserve imputed estimates of gross output for industries no longer reported separately based on values for the aggregate industries that contained them and the gross output shares for the disaggregate industries in 2002. Changes to Individual Production Series With this revision, the monthly production indicators for some series have changed, and some new series have been created. 4 Ethanol Data on ethanol production from the Energy Information Agency of the Department of Energy were used for a new industrial production index for ethyl alcohol (NAICS 325193) that begins in 1997. Previously, ethanol production had been included in the production index for organic chemicals (NAICS 32511, 32519), which used the output of eight basic organic chemicals as its high-frequency indicator. Those data are now used as the indicator for a new series that covers the combined output of petrochemicals (NAICS 32511) and other organic chemicals (NAICS 32519) except ethanol.4 Unitary air conditioners The output of unitary air conditioners includes central air units and heat pumps and is a part of NAICS industry 333415, which covers air conditioners, nonhousehold refrigeration equipment, and warm air furnaces. The output of unitary air conditioners is now represented by separate production indexes for residential and nonresidential units for the period 1997 to the present. Previously, data on shipments adjusted by inventory change from the Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute (ARI) were used to estimate the output of total unitary air conditioners. The ARI shipments data are available for seventeen size categories, each of which is now split between residential and nonresidential units. The bulk of the smaller categories is assumed to be residential, and the bulk of the larger categories is assumed to be nonresidential. Relative prices for the various size categories are derived from Current Industrial Reports from the Census Bureau for recent years; previously, the index was based on an unweighted sum of units. Audio and video equipment The monthly indicator for audio and video equipment (NAICS 3343) was updated to include both digital televisions and speakers for the period 2002 to the present. Previously, the index reflected shipments of analog televisions with diagonal sizes of 25 inches or larger that were adjusted for imports. New data on unit and dollar sales of digital televisions are available by technology (plasma, LCD, projection, and other) and by size from the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA). Likewise, data for speaker sales are available from the CEA. U.S. production weights are derived from Current Industrial Reports from the Census Bureau and are combined with the new data to construct a Fisher production index for the industry. High-technology goods Beginning in 2002, data on U.S. sales of routers and switches from Synergy Research Group, an industry research group, were introduced as the quarterly indicator for data networking equipment, which is part of telephone apparatus manufacturing (NAICS 334210). Previously, the indicator was constructed from somewhat less-comprehensive and less-timely information from Gartner and was extended by data on production-worker hours from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. As in previous years, the index for the production of microprocessor units is based on worldwide sales data from the Semiconductor Industry Association. With this revision, the translation of worldwide sales to domestic production is based on quarterly estimates of production at U.S. manufacturing establishments provided by Instat, a technology research firm. Previously, the domestic production share of worldwide sales was based on product-level data from the Current Industrial Reports. New source data for estimating the U.S. share of microprocessor manufacturing introduced a different pattern of production in the industry; more-noticeable decelerations in 1994, 2001 and 2005 and a more-rapid acceleration in 1995. In 2006, a climbing production share and faster falling price index combine to revise microprocessor output up sharply. 4 The market assignment of ethanol was changed from non-energy chemical materials to energy materials. 5 Periodicals and other publishers The index for periodicals and other publishers (NAICS 51112, 51114, and 51119) was split into separate indexes for periodicals (NAICS 51112) and other publishers (NAICS 51114, 51119). Both new indexes use production-worker hours as monthly indicators and begin in 1987. The separate indicators will allow comparisons to other industry data. Series switched from using product data to production-worker hours Product data used as indicators for several IP indexes were discontinued in the past few years and have been replaced by production-worker hours for 2002 to the present. The industries affected are coffee (NAICS 31192), cotton and synthetic fabrics (part of NAICS 31321), wool fabrics (part of NAICS 31321), tire cord (NAICS 314992), hosiery (NAICS 31511), pigments (NAICS 31523), synthetic rubber (NAICS 325212), and electron tubes (NAICS 334411). Reliability of monthly estimates The first estimate of output for a month is preliminary and is subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source data become available. By the third revision (the fourth month of estimate), the product-based content of IP is 54 percent (see table below). Availability of Monthly IP Data (Percent of value added in 2005) Month of estimate Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 27 42 54 54 Production-worker hours 43 43 43 43 IP data received 70 84 96 97 IP data estimated 30 16 4 3 Changes to Individual Capacity Series With this revision, the organic chemicals series (NAICS 32511, 9) was split into two series—ethyl alcohol (also known as ethanol, NAICS 325193) and organic chemicals excluding ethanol (NAICS 32511, 9 except 325193)—for 1997 and onward. The capacity indicator for ethanol is gallons of ethanol capacity from the Renewable Fuels Association. The capacity indicator for organic chemicals excluding ethanol is based on utilization rates from the Survey of Plant Capacity. Capacity for synthetic rubber is now based on utilization rates from the Survey of Plant Capacity and begins in 2002. Capacity for previous years is still derived from physical capacity data from the International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers. 6 U.S. Networking Equipment, 1998 to 2005 Production Index Annual Estimates (indexes are 2002=100) 1998 58.7 1999 82.5 2000 113.8 2001 124.7 2002 100.0 2003 90.7 2004 89.1 2005 102.0 Quaterly Estimates (indexes are 2002=100) 1998q1 49.9 1998q2 59.1 1998q3 62.5 1998q4 63.3 Price Index Value of Production (millions of dollars) 247.5 202.6 180.2 135.4 100.0 91.8 79.2 71.1 20,556.4 23,781.6 29,160.7 25,202.6 15,747.5 13,088.5 11,151.3 11,455.9 274.9 242.6 230.8 240.1 19,361.9 21,667.2 20,516.9 20,806.8 1999q1 1999q2 1999q3 1999q4 78.3 82.7 82.1 87.0 210.5 192.7 204.3 202.6 23,513.5 23,906.1 23,545.0 24,224.3 2000q1 2000q2 2000q3 2000q4 103.3 113.9 117.4 120.6 184.8 170.9 182.9 182.1 27,993.8 28,940.9 29,722.5 29,970.2 2001q1 2001q2 2001q3 2001q4 136.7 124.1 120.5 117.4 145.8 136.5 131.8 128.1 29,004.9 25,699.2 23,512.1 22,504.3 2002q1 2002q2 2002q3 2002q4 101.1 102.5 98.5 97.9 110.1 114.5 88.9 88.2 17,062.0 16,765.8 14,914.0 14,158.7 2003q1 2003q2 2003q3 2003q4 94.0 86.7 89.8 92.3 85.6 110.9 90.9 81.8 13,208.2 13,634.8 13,349.1 12,057.9 2004q1 2004q2 2004q3 2004q4 95.9 89.6 86.3 84.5 79.3 85.6 76.9 75.5 12,689.1 10,716.9 10,995.1 10,241.2 2005q1 2005q2 2005q3 2005q4 88.7 109.9 100.9 108.4 69.2 76.2 69.8 69.6 10,456.8 11,598.7 11,607.9 12,090.7 7 Weights for Aggregation The IP index is a Fisher index. This revision uses information from the Census of Manufactures to obtain updated estimates of the industry value-added weights used in the aggregation of IP indexes and capacity utilization rates. The Federal Reserve derives estimates of value added for the electric and gas utility industries from annual revenue and expense data issued by other organizations. The weights for aggregation, expressed as unit value added, were estimated using the latest data on producer prices. Table 10 shows the annual value-added proportions in the IP index from 1997 through 2005. Revised Monthly Data This revision incorporates product data that became available after the regular four-month reporting window for monthly IP was closed. These data are released with too great a lag to be included with monthly IP estimates; however, the data are available for inclusion in the annual revision. Revised Seasonal Factors Seasonal factors for all series were reestimated using data that extend into 2006. Factors for production-worker hours—which adjust for timing, holiday, and monthly seasonal patterns—were updated with data through September 2006 and were prorated to correspond with the seasonal factors for hours aggregated to the three-digit NAICS level. The updated factors for the physical product series, which include adjustments for holiday and workday patterns, used data through 2006. Seasonal factors for unit motor vehicle assemblies have been updated, and projections through June 2007 are on the Board’s website at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/mvsf.htm. Data Availability and Publication Changes Files containing the revised data and the text and tables from this release are available on the Board’s web site, at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17, and on diskettes from Publications Services (telephone number 202-452-3245). Updated data for all of the regularly issued series on industrial production, capacity, capacity utilization, and electric power use are available on the website. The revised data will also be available through the STAT-USA website of the Department of Commerce (www.stat-usa.gov). Further information on these revisions is available from the Board’s Industrial Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197). A document with printed tables of the revised estimates of series shown in the G.17 release is available upon request to the Industrial Output Section, Mail Stop 82, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551. An expanded version of this release will be published in a forthcoming article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin. 8 1. Total industrial production, capacity, and utilization 140 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Revised Earlier 140 130 130 120 120 Capacity 110 110 100 100 90 90 Production 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Percent of capacity 86 60 86 82 82 Utilization 78 78 74 74 70 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 9 2006 70 2. Manufacturing industrial production, capacity, and utilization 150 140 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Revised Earlier 150 140 130 130 120 120 Capacity 110 110 100 100 Production 90 90 80 80 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Percent of capacity 86 82 55 86 82 Utilization 78 78 74 74 70 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. Manufacturing consists of those industries in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries--logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing--that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. 10 2006 70 3. Industrial production and capacity utilization Industrial production Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 115 110 105 100 95 115 110 105 100 95 Excluding high-technology industries 90 90 85 85 Total IP 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Industrial production 2002 2004 2006 60 Percent change from year earlier 15 15 10 10 Total IP 5 5 0 0 Excluding the contribution of high-technology industries -5 -10 -15 1988 1990 Industrial production 1992 1994 1998 300 250 100 Ratio scale, 2002 = 100 300 250 200 1996 Communications eq. 150 150 100 80 100 80 95 85 60 60 Semiconductors 40 -10 2000 2002 Capacity utilization 200 Computers -5 40 2004 2006 -15 Percent of capacity 100 95 Excluding high-technology industries 85 75 75 65 65 High-technology industries 20 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20 55 1990 1995 2000 Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9), computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342). The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 11 2005 55 4. Consumer goods Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 120 120 Revised Earlier 100 100 Detail: 2003 to present 108 106 80 104 80 102 100 98 96 2003 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Components of consumer goods 2004 2002 2005 2006 2004 2006 60 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 125 125 105 105 Nondurable 85 85 Detail: 2003 to present 115 Durable 65 110 65 105 100 95 2003 45 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2004 2002 2005 2004 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 12 2006 2006 45 5. Equipment, total 140 110 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 140 Revised Earlier 110 90 90 70 70 Detail: 2003 to present 145 135 125 50 50 115 105 2003 30 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 2004 1998 2005 2006 2000 95 2002 Components of equipment 2004 2006 30 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 140 120 100 140 120 100 80 Detail: 2003 to present 80 145 135 60 60 125 Business 115 40 40 105 2003 20 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2004 2005 2000 Components of equipment 2006 95 2002 2004 2006 20 160 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 160 140 140 Defense and space 120 120 100 100 80 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 13 2006 80 6. Nonindustrial supplies 120 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Revised Earlier 120 90 90 Detail: 2003 to present 115 110 70 70 105 100 2003 50 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2004 2005 2000 2006 2002 95 2004 2006 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 120 Components of nonindustrial supplies Detail: 2003 to present 90 120 90 115 Construction 50 110 105 70 70 100 2003 50 120 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2004 2005 2000 2006 2002 95 2004 2006 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 Components of nonindustrial supplies Detail: 2003 to present 90 50 120 90 115 110 105 70 Business 2003 50 1988 70 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2004 2000 2005 2006 2002 95 2004 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 14 2006 50 7. Industrial materials 115 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 115 Revised Earlier 90 90 Detail: 2003 to present 115 110 70 70 105 100 2003 50 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2004 2005 2000 Components of industrial materials 2006 2002 95 2004 2006 50 Ratio scale, 2002 output = 100 125 125 Energy 100 100 Detail: 2003 to present 75 75 120 115 110 105 Non-energy 100 95 2003 50 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2004 2000 2005 2006 2002 90 2004 Note: The shaded areas represent periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 15 2006 50 8. Capacity utilization by stage of process Capacity utilization 100 95 Percent of capacity 100 Revised Earlier 95 Crude processing 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Capacity utilization 2004 2006 70 Percent of capacity 95 95 Primary and semifinished processing 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Capacity utilization 2004 2006 65 Percent of capacity 90 90 85 85 Finished processing 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Note: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER. 16 2002 2004 2006 60 Table 1A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Total Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual1 IP (percent change) 1976 1977 1978 1979 1.5 -.6 -1.3 -.7 .9 1.5 .4 .6 .1 1.3 1.8 .3 .6 .9 2.1 -1.1 .5 .8 .3 .8 .0 .7 .7 .0 .6 .2 .0 -.2 .7 .1 .4 -.7 .3 .5 .3 .1 .1 .3 .9 .6 1.5 .0 .7 -.1 1.0 .2 .6 .1 12.6 8.4 -1.2 2.0 5.2 12.8 16.8 -.5 5.3 4.9 3.6 -1.4 7.8 2.9 7.6 1.4 7.9 7.7 5.5 3.1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 .5 -.5 -1.9 1.9 2.0 .0 -.5 2.0 -.6 .5 -.3 .6 -.7 .9 .5 -2.0 -.5 -.8 1.2 .6 -2.5 .7 -.7 .7 .5 -1.3 .5 -.4 .6 .4 -.6 .7 -.3 1.6 .3 .3 .0 -.8 1.1 .1 1.6 -.6 -.4 1.5 -.1 1.3 -.7 -.8 .9 -.1 1.7 -1.1 -.4 .3 .4 .6 -1.1 -.8 .5 .1 1.7 1.0 -7.6 4.4 12.5 -15.9 1.5 -4.9 9.6 6.5 -6.2 4.3 -5.9 14.8 2.9 16.2 -8.5 -7.4 11.0 .5 -2.6 1.4 -5.1 2.7 9.1 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.3 .5 -.3 .0 .2 .4 -.8 1.3 .4 -.5 .2 -.6 .2 .3 .3 -.2 .1 .6 .5 .0 .1 .2 .7 -.1 -.7 .1 -.3 .5 .2 .0 -.6 .6 .6 .2 -.9 .5 -.2 .7 .5 1.0 .4 .2 .3 -.3 -.3 -.4 .4 1.5 .6 -.1 .3 .5 .5 .2 .3 1.0 .9 .5 .4 .7 1.2 2.4 5.4 3.4 1.5 .7 -2.4 7.2 3.4 -1.8 -.5 1.7 7.3 2.1 -2.4 2.7 4.6 9.9 3.3 1.8 1.4 1.1 5.1 5.1 .9 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.6 -.5 -.5 .5 .5 .9 -.7 .7 .3 .0 .5 -.5 .8 .0 1.0 -.1 .2 .7 .3 .5 .2 1.0 .4 -.4 .5 .3 1.0 .1 .3 .7 -.2 .0 .8 .4 .2 .3 .2 -.5 .0 .5 .2 .9 .2 .5 .3 -.7 -.2 .7 .8 .9 -1.2 -.1 .4 .4 .7 -.7 -.3 .1 .6 1.1 3.0 -7.6 -.3 3.7 5.6 2.8 2.7 7.1 1.1 7.3 1.4 5.7 3.1 2.4 5.1 -5.9 1.0 4.0 6.4 8.3 1.0 -1.5 2.9 3.4 5.5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .4 -.8 .2 .5 .6 .1 1.5 1.2 .1 .5 .1 -.2 .8 .0 .2 -.1 .9 -.1 .5 .2 .2 .7 .6 .7 .8 .3 .9 .4 -.5 -.1 -.4 -.2 .5 -.3 .7 1.3 .7 1.3 2.2 .5 .4 .5 .9 -.2 -.4 -.2 .0 .8 .7 1.3 .3 .9 1.0 -.1 .6 .3 .7 .4 .4 .9 6.0 2.0 8.3 4.7 4.9 1.0 8.4 5.5 3.3 4.0 3.8 5.2 9.0 3.8 4.4 3.5 6.1 11.1 5.3 8.2 5.0 4.3 7.2 6.1 4.7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 .1 -.7 .5 .6 .2 .4 -.6 .1 .3 .7 .4 -.4 .8 -.2 -.6 .8 -.3 .4 -.8 .6 .3 -.7 .4 -.1 .6 .1 -.6 .9 .2 -.7 -.3 -.4 -.3 .4 .6 -.3 -.4 .2 -.1 .2 .5 -.4 .1 .5 -.2 -.5 -.6 -.3 -.1 .7 .0 -.5 .4 .8 .2 -.4 .0 -.4 .0 .6 5.3 -5.7 2.7 2.3 3.3 5.9 -5.4 6.4 -3.2 2.5 -.5 -5.6 2.3 2.5 1.8 -1.6 -5.1 -.4 3.3 4.3 4.5 -3.5 .0 1.1 2.5 2005 2006 .3 .0 .6 .3 -.1 .5 .1 .9 .4 -.1 .6 .9 .0 .4 .3 .3 -1.6 -.5 1.2 .2 1.1 .8 4.6 5.0 2.8 6.5 .8 4.0 4.7 3.2 IP (2002=100) 1976 1977 1978 1979 47.0 49.7 52.3 56.4 47.4 50.5 52.6 56.8 47.4 51.1 53.5 56.9 47.7 51.6 54.7 56.3 48.0 52.0 54.8 56.8 48.0 52.4 55.2 56.8 48.2 52.5 55.2 56.7 48.6 52.5 55.4 56.3 48.7 52.8 55.6 56.3 48.8 52.9 56.0 56.6 49.5 53.0 56.5 56.6 50.0 53.1 56.8 56.7 47.3 50.4 52.8 56.7 47.9 52.0 54.9 56.6 48.5 52.6 55.4 56.4 49.4 53.0 56.4 56.6 48.3 52.0 54.9 56.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 56.9 55.9 53.7 52.4 58.3 56.9 55.6 54.7 52.1 58.6 56.8 55.9 54.4 52.5 58.9 55.6 55.6 53.9 53.2 59.2 54.2 56.0 53.5 53.6 59.5 53.5 56.3 53.3 53.9 59.8 53.2 56.7 53.2 54.7 59.9 53.4 56.7 52.7 55.3 60.0 54.2 56.4 52.5 56.2 59.9 54.9 55.9 52.1 56.7 59.8 55.9 55.3 51.8 56.9 60.1 56.2 54.7 51.4 57.1 60.1 56.9 55.8 54.3 52.3 58.6 54.5 56.0 53.6 53.5 59.5 53.6 56.6 52.8 55.4 59.9 55.7 55.3 51.8 56.9 60.0 55.1 55.9 53.1 54.5 59.5 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 60.0 61.4 61.8 66.5 68.6 60.2 60.9 62.6 66.7 68.2 60.4 60.6 62.7 66.9 68.4 60.2 60.6 63.1 67.2 68.4 60.3 60.7 63.5 67.2 68.0 60.3 60.5 63.8 67.3 68.0 60.0 60.9 64.2 67.4 67.3 60.2 60.8 64.7 67.8 68.0 60.5 60.9 64.9 67.6 67.8 60.3 61.2 65.8 68.0 67.7 60.5 61.5 66.2 68.1 67.9 61.1 62.0 66.5 68.4 68.4 60.2 61.0 62.4 66.7 68.4 60.3 60.6 63.5 67.3 68.1 60.2 60.9 64.6 67.6 67.7 60.6 61.6 66.1 68.2 68.0 60.3 61.0 64.1 67.4 68.1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 68.0 67.2 67.9 71.2 73.9 68.6 66.8 68.3 71.5 73.9 68.9 66.5 68.8 71.5 74.7 68.8 66.6 69.3 71.7 75.0 68.9 67.3 69.6 71.4 75.4 69.1 68.0 69.6 71.6 75.9 69.0 68.0 70.2 71.9 76.1 69.2 68.1 69.9 71.9 76.4 69.4 68.7 70.0 72.3 76.6 68.9 68.5 70.5 72.8 77.3 68.1 68.4 70.8 73.1 77.8 67.6 68.2 70.9 73.5 78.7 68.5 66.8 68.3 71.4 74.1 69.0 67.3 69.5 71.6 75.4 69.2 68.2 70.0 72.0 76.4 68.2 68.4 70.7 73.1 77.9 68.7 67.7 69.7 72.0 76.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 79.0 80.3 85.9 93.3 96.9 79.0 81.6 86.9 93.3 97.5 79.2 81.4 87.6 93.4 97.6 79.1 82.1 87.5 93.8 97.8 79.2 82.7 88.0 94.4 98.6 79.5 83.4 88.4 94.0 98.5 79.2 83.3 88.8 93.7 99.2 80.2 83.8 89.9 95.7 99.7 80.6 84.3 90.8 95.5 99.3 80.4 84.3 91.5 96.1 100.6 80.7 85.1 92.4 96.1 101.3 81.0 85.7 92.8 96.4 102.1 79.1 81.1 86.8 93.3 97.4 79.3 82.8 87.9 94.1 98.3 80.0 83.8 89.9 95.0 99.4 80.7 85.1 92.3 96.2 101.3 79.8 83.2 89.2 94.6 99.1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 102.2 102.6 98.3 101.1 102.3 102.7 102.0 98.4 101.4 103.0 103.1 101.6 99.1 101.1 102.4 103.9 101.3 99.5 100.3 103.1 104.2 100.6 99.9 100.2 103.7 104.3 100.0 100.9 100.4 102.9 104.0 99.6 100.6 100.8 103.6 103.8 99.2 100.7 100.8 103.8 104.2 98.8 100.8 101.3 103.6 103.7 98.3 100.5 101.2 104.4 103.7 97.8 100.9 102.0 104.7 103.3 97.7 100.4 102.0 105.3 102.7 102.1 98.6 101.2 102.6 104.1 100.7 100.1 100.3 103.2 104.0 99.2 100.7 101.0 103.7 103.6 97.9 100.6 101.8 104.8 103.6 100.0 100.0 101.1 103.6 2005 2006 105.6 109.1 106.2 109.4 106.1 110.0 106.2 110.9 106.6 110.9 107.3 111.9 107.3 112.3 107.6 112.6 105.8 112.0 107.1 112.3 108.2 109.1 106.0 109.5 106.7 111.2 106.9 112.3 108.1 106.9 Year N OTE Estimates from August 2006 through October 2006 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 17 Table 1B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Total Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1976 1977 1978 1979 59.9 61.5 63.7 65.8 60.0 61.7 63.9 65.9 60.2 61.8 64.1 66.1 60.3 62.0 64.2 66.2 60.4 62.2 64.4 66.4 60.6 62.4 64.6 66.5 60.7 62.5 64.8 66.7 60.8 62.7 65.0 66.8 60.9 62.9 65.1 66.9 61.1 63.1 65.3 67.1 61.2 63.3 65.5 67.2 61.4 63.5 65.6 67.4 60.0 61.7 63.9 65.9 60.4 62.2 64.4 66.4 60.8 62.7 65.0 66.8 61.2 63.3 65.5 67.2 60.6 62.5 64.7 66.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 67.5 69.2 71.3 72.7 73.3 67.6 69.4 71.4 72.8 73.4 67.8 69.6 71.6 72.8 73.5 67.9 69.7 71.8 72.9 73.6 68.0 69.9 71.9 72.9 73.7 68.2 70.1 72.1 72.9 73.8 68.3 70.2 72.2 73.0 74.0 68.5 70.4 72.3 73.0 74.1 68.6 70.6 72.4 73.0 74.3 68.8 70.8 72.5 73.1 74.5 68.9 70.9 72.6 73.2 74.7 69.1 71.1 72.7 73.2 74.8 67.6 69.4 71.4 72.8 73.4 68.0 69.9 71.9 72.9 73.7 68.5 70.4 72.3 73.0 74.1 68.9 70.9 72.6 73.2 74.7 68.3 70.2 72.1 73.0 74.0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 75.0 77.0 78.2 79.9 80.6 75.2 77.1 78.4 79.9 80.8 75.4 77.2 78.5 80.0 80.9 75.6 77.3 78.7 80.1 81.0 75.8 77.4 78.9 80.1 81.2 76.0 77.5 79.0 80.1 81.3 76.2 77.6 79.2 80.2 81.5 76.3 77.7 79.3 80.2 81.6 76.5 77.8 79.5 80.3 81.8 76.6 77.9 79.6 80.4 82.0 76.8 78.0 79.7 80.5 82.2 76.9 78.1 79.8 80.5 82.3 75.2 77.1 78.4 79.9 80.8 75.8 77.4 78.9 80.1 81.2 76.3 77.7 79.3 80.2 81.6 76.8 78.0 79.7 80.5 82.2 76.0 77.5 79.1 80.2 81.4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 82.5 84.4 85.9 87.8 89.5 82.7 84.5 86.1 87.9 89.7 82.8 84.6 86.2 88.1 89.9 83.0 84.8 86.4 88.2 90.1 83.2 84.9 86.5 88.3 90.4 83.3 85.0 86.7 88.4 90.6 83.5 85.1 86.9 88.6 90.9 83.6 85.3 87.0 88.7 91.2 83.8 85.4 87.2 88.8 91.5 83.9 85.5 87.4 89.0 91.8 84.1 85.6 87.5 89.1 92.2 84.2 85.8 87.7 89.3 92.5 82.7 84.5 86.1 87.9 89.7 83.2 84.9 86.5 88.3 90.4 83.6 85.3 87.0 88.7 91.2 84.1 85.6 87.5 89.1 92.2 83.4 85.1 86.8 88.5 90.9 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 92.9 97.6 103.1 110.6 118.2 93.2 98.1 103.6 111.3 118.7 93.6 98.5 104.1 112.0 119.2 94.0 98.9 104.7 112.7 119.7 94.4 99.4 105.2 113.5 120.2 94.8 99.8 105.8 114.1 120.7 95.1 100.3 106.4 114.8 121.2 95.5 100.7 107.1 115.4 121.7 95.9 101.2 107.7 116.0 122.2 96.4 101.7 108.4 116.5 122.7 96.8 102.1 109.1 117.1 123.2 97.2 102.6 109.8 117.6 123.7 93.2 98.1 103.6 111.3 118.7 94.4 99.4 105.3 113.4 120.2 95.5 100.7 107.1 115.4 121.7 96.8 102.1 109.1 117.1 123.2 95.0 100.1 106.3 114.3 120.9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 124.3 129.6 133.1 133.5 132.4 124.8 130.0 133.3 133.3 132.4 125.3 130.3 133.5 133.2 132.5 125.8 130.6 133.6 133.0 132.5 126.3 131.0 133.7 132.9 132.5 126.8 131.3 133.8 132.8 132.5 127.2 131.6 133.9 132.7 132.6 127.6 131.9 133.9 132.6 132.6 128.1 132.1 133.8 132.5 132.6 128.5 132.4 133.8 132.5 132.6 128.9 132.7 133.7 132.4 132.6 129.3 132.9 133.6 132.4 132.7 124.8 130.0 133.3 133.3 132.4 126.3 131.0 133.7 132.9 132.5 127.6 131.8 133.9 132.6 132.6 128.9 132.7 133.7 132.4 132.6 126.9 131.4 133.6 132.8 132.5 2005 2006 132.7 134.6 132.7 134.8 132.8 135.1 132.9 135.4 133.0 135.7 133.1 136.0 133.2 136.2 133.4 136.5 133.6 136.8 133.8 137.0 134.1 134.3 132.7 134.9 133.0 135.7 133.4 136.5 134.1 133.3 Utilization (percent) 1976 1977 1978 1979 78.4 80.8 82.2 85.8 78.9 81.8 82.3 86.1 78.9 82.7 83.6 86.2 79.2 83.2 85.1 85.1 79.4 83.6 85.1 85.5 79.2 84.0 85.5 85.4 79.5 83.9 85.2 85.0 79.9 83.8 85.3 84.2 79.9 83.9 85.3 84.1 79.9 83.9 85.8 84.4 80.9 83.7 86.2 84.2 81.5 83.6 86.5 84.1 78.7 81.8 82.7 86.0 79.3 83.6 85.2 85.3 79.8 83.9 85.3 84.5 80.7 83.7 86.2 84.3 79.6 83.2 84.9 85.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 84.3 80.7 75.3 72.0 79.5 84.2 80.1 76.6 71.5 79.8 83.8 80.3 75.9 72.1 80.1 81.9 79.8 75.1 73.0 80.5 79.7 80.2 74.4 73.5 80.8 78.5 80.4 74.0 73.9 80.9 77.9 80.7 73.6 75.0 81.0 77.9 80.5 72.9 75.8 80.9 79.0 79.8 72.5 76.9 80.6 79.8 79.1 71.8 77.5 80.3 81.0 78.0 71.4 77.7 80.5 81.3 77.0 70.8 78.0 80.4 84.1 80.4 75.9 71.9 79.8 80.1 80.1 74.5 73.4 80.7 78.3 80.4 73.0 75.9 80.8 80.7 78.0 71.3 77.8 80.4 80.8 79.7 73.7 74.8 80.4 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 80.0 79.8 79.0 83.2 85.0 80.1 79.0 79.9 83.5 84.5 80.0 78.4 79.9 83.6 84.6 79.7 78.4 80.2 84.0 84.4 79.6 78.4 80.5 83.9 83.7 79.4 78.1 80.8 84.0 83.6 78.7 78.5 81.1 84.1 82.6 78.9 78.3 81.6 84.5 83.3 79.1 78.3 81.6 84.2 82.8 78.6 78.6 82.7 84.6 82.6 78.8 78.8 83.0 84.7 82.7 79.5 79.4 83.3 84.9 83.1 80.0 79.1 79.6 83.4 84.7 79.6 78.3 80.5 84.0 83.9 78.9 78.4 81.4 84.2 82.9 79.0 78.9 83.0 84.7 82.8 79.4 78.7 81.1 84.1 83.6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 82.4 79.7 79.0 81.1 82.6 83.0 79.0 79.4 81.3 82.4 83.2 78.5 79.9 81.1 83.1 82.9 78.6 80.3 81.3 83.3 82.9 79.3 80.4 80.9 83.5 83.0 79.9 80.3 81.0 83.8 82.7 79.8 80.8 81.2 83.7 82.8 79.8 80.3 81.1 83.8 82.8 80.4 80.3 81.4 83.8 82.1 80.1 80.8 81.8 84.2 80.9 79.9 80.9 82.0 84.4 80.2 79.5 80.8 82.3 85.1 82.9 79.1 79.4 81.2 82.7 82.9 79.3 80.3 81.1 83.5 82.7 80.0 80.5 81.2 83.8 81.1 79.9 80.8 82.1 84.6 82.4 79.6 80.3 81.4 83.6 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 85.1 82.3 83.3 84.3 82.1 84.8 83.2 83.8 83.9 82.1 84.6 82.6 84.1 83.3 81.9 84.1 83.0 83.6 83.2 81.8 84.0 83.2 83.6 83.2 82.1 83.9 83.6 83.5 82.3 81.6 83.2 83.0 83.5 81.6 81.8 84.0 83.2 84.0 82.9 81.9 84.0 83.3 84.3 82.3 81.3 83.5 83.0 84.4 82.5 82.0 83.4 83.3 84.7 82.0 82.2 83.3 83.5 84.5 81.9 82.6 84.8 82.7 83.7 83.8 82.0 84.0 83.3 83.6 82.9 81.8 83.7 83.2 83.9 82.3 81.7 83.4 83.3 84.5 82.2 82.3 84.0 83.1 83.9 82.8 81.9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 82.3 79.2 73.8 75.7 77.2 82.3 78.5 73.8 76.0 77.8 82.3 78.0 74.3 75.9 77.3 82.6 77.5 74.5 75.4 77.8 82.5 76.8 74.7 75.4 78.2 82.3 76.2 75.4 75.7 77.7 81.8 75.7 75.1 76.0 78.1 81.3 75.3 75.2 76.0 78.3 81.4 74.8 75.3 76.4 78.2 80.8 74.2 75.1 76.4 78.7 80.5 73.7 75.5 77.1 78.9 79.9 73.6 75.2 77.1 79.4 82.3 78.5 74.0 75.9 77.5 82.5 76.9 74.9 75.5 77.9 81.5 75.3 75.2 76.1 78.2 80.4 73.8 75.3 76.8 79.0 81.7 76.1 74.8 76.1 78.1 2005 2006 79.6 81.1 80.0 81.1 79.9 81.4 79.9 81.9 80.2 81.7 80.6 82.3 80.5 82.4 80.7 82.5 79.2 81.9 80.0 82.0 80.7 81.3 79.8 81.2 80.2 82.0 80.1 82.3 80.7 80.2 N OTE Estimates from August 2006 through October 2006 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 18 Table 2 R ATES O F C HANGE IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY: 2002–06 1 Item 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2.7 1.2 3.0 3.2 5.2 .5 -.4 -1.4 .2 -.1 1.8 2.7 7.1 11.7 -10.1 1.9 5.1 1.0 -.6 -2.9 -10.6 5.6 -.2 9.2 1.3 1.4 3.4 4.8 20.4 2.3 -1.3 .6 1.1 2.7 -10.9 2.3 -4.3 -1.7 2.6 1.8 -.2 -3.2 14.2 2.2 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.3 -10.5 3.8 3.2 3.7 4.8 2.7 2.3 -1.8 16.8 3.1 6.4 2.9 3.4 4.8 -.3 .9 2.2 1.7 3.4 1.3 -2.0 -4.7 12.8 -3.7 .7 2.4 2.0 .3 1.7 5.6 .8 3.3 .4 .0 -.8 -.7 -2.4 -2.1 .2 .3 .4 .2 -3.5 1.6 .3 -.3 -.5 .0 -.9 -1.7 2.0 .1 -.5 .4 .5 .5 -1.6 1.3 -.8 .2 -1.7 -.2 -1.5 -3.6 17.9 -.2 -.9 .2 -.2 .4 -7.7 .8 -2.7 2.0 .0 .4 -.8 -4.3 -.4 .9 3.2 .8 1.2 1.9 1.0 .6 -1.5 .0 -.3 -.2 .1 -1.0 9.3 -.9 -.2 -.5 -.8 -1.2 -3.6 .7 -1.0 .3 -1.0 -10.8 -6.7 6.6 .6 1.1 .4 7.0 -2.0 1.5 5.3 6.0 7.2 3.9 2.5 11.2 20.5 13.7 6.7 3.8 11.4 20.1 10.5 8.7 4.1 1.3 .0 2.2 1.2 -.2 -1.7 -3.2 .5 -2.4 -3.9 -5.5 -3.7 -7.4 -5.2 -7.2 .7 5.5 -5.7 2.4 -5.5 -1.0 5.2 -5.6 -.7 -1.4 1.7 3.1 1.0 .9 1.6 2.9 8.0 3.4 .4 3.4 .4 .6 -.7 .0 -3.1 -.9 1.4 -.4 .0 .2 4.0 5.2 6.0 7.5 8.3 3.2 3.7 5.7 1.4 6.0 .5 1.0 1.4 2.9 -1.5 8.8 .5 -1.1 -7.6 -5.2 2.4 .1 3.4 4.8 5.4 .2 9.4 4.5 3.8 -3.4 3.9 7.7 -.2 1.1 3.5 7.0 1.7 16.0 2.7 -2.1 .2 -.2 -6.5 -4.2 7.6 7.6 9.1 -1.0 22.7 3.5 5.1 -5.2 2.4 10.7 7.4 .6 .8 .6 1.5 .9 -.1 1.0 .7 .5 2.1 .1 -.2 -.3 -.9 -.3 -3.0 .5 .6 -1.1 1.3 .9 .2 -.8 -1.2 -2.2 -1.8 -4.7 -.5 .6 3.0 -.7 2.4 .0 .5 .2 .0 -.5 -.2 .6 1.0 4.6 .7 2.1 1.2 .1 .9 1.4 -.8 4.9 .4 .3 -1.5 .1 .4 -1.9 321 327 331 332 333 334 2.7 3.1 4.3 1.5 1.2 5.5 1.8 6.3 4.3 1.3 1.6 2.6 4.6 1.9 4.3 -2.2 -2.0 13.6 3.4 3.5 3.7 1.8 3.8 7.4 1.6 5.0 10.2 4.4 4.6 7.9 10.5 5.8 -2.3 6.1 8.2 18.3 5.1 5.5 6.8 -9.9 .7 6.1 5.6 8.2 19.5 .6 .6 .5 .6 .2 -1.1 .6 2.2 1.5 -.4 -.4 -1.4 .6 -.2 3.3 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 -1.7 -1.7 -3.4 -1.3 -1.2 3.6 -3.7 -6.5 -5.9 .2 .3 .2 3.1 2.9 -.6 2.1 1.9 -4.7 .1 .2 .6 1.5 1.2 2.4 -.5 .4 2.5 335 3361–3 -3.8 12.4 -1.0 3.1 2.0 -1.6 3.8 .2 4.3 -3.8 -1.7 .2 -.3 -1.5 -3.1 -4.3 -3.2 -2.1 -5.8 -.3 3364–9 337 339 -7.3 5.8 9.1 -3.7 .1 .1 2.0 3.5 2.2 15.0 1.7 8.7 17.5 .4 3.8 .0 -1.6 -.5 -3.3 -.1 -.5 -3.3 1.3 -1.7 3.1 3.7 3.9 3.1 -.1 -1.1 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 1.5 -1.7 2.8 -10.7 4.1 -3.3 2.3 5.4 5.0 .4 2.6 -4.7 -10.5 -5.4 -2.4 1.0 2.0 -.2 3.2 1.2 -.7 -9.6 3.0 1.9 10.0 6.1 .8 .9 5.3 2.0 .4 -.1 1.9 -3.6 -2.5 3.0 4.1 .7 -5.3 1.1 -.1 4.0 8.1 8.0 4.1 .7 .5 .6 -3.8 .7 -.1 -.6 1.8 .6 .8 .9 -.5 -1.1 .6 .7 .7 1.3 .0 .4 -.5 3.1 -7.5 -1.5 .4 3.7 1.8 -2.4 .9 1.9 2.3 .8 .6 .2 2.4 1.0 -.9 -.1 -1.4 -.1 -3.5 .6 -1.3 -.6 .5 .1 1133,5111 -2.5 -3.4 2.6 .6 -2.2 .1 -.4 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 21 2211,2 2211 2212 -3.7 7.0 5.6 15.7 .6 .6 1.8 -6.0 -.8 1.6 2.2 -1.4 -5.5 2.1 3.4 -3.4 10.0 1.2 .9 2.6 .1 .0 .0 .1 .1 -.2 -.1 -.4 -.3 .4 .2 1.5 1.4 -.7 -.4 -1.8 -2.0 -.4 -.2 -1.1 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) NOTE. Estimates for the third quarter of 2006 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 2006, the rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2006 annualized. 19 Table 3 R ATES O F C HANGE IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , S PECIAL AGGREGATES AND S ELECTED D ETAIL : 2002–06 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2.7 1.2 3.0 3.2 5.2 .5 -.4 -1.4 .2 -.1 2.8 9.2 4.3 -15.2 4.3 -1.5 .6 -1.7 4.8 21.2 1.0 -.3 1.5 3.7 4.5 8.3 2.1 -1.3 -1.8 1.7 .5 11.8 -2.5 -4.9 6.1 3.3 2.9 19.9 6.4 7.9 .0 -.3 -.2 .0 .2 .1 .1 .2 -.4 .0 .4 .1 .8 2.0 2.0 .0 .5 -.3 .7 .0 -2.3 .0 -.3 1.9 -1.1 .3 1.4 .5 -1.8 -2.1 3341 3342 2.7 8.3 -2.9 -13.6 1.3 17.2 4.8 13.9 3.3 10.4 6.6 6.2 4.6 28.1 30.4 12.9 4.9 24.2 5.7 16.9 .6 3.5 -.3 9.0 -.4 -4.0 -.9 4.0 -1.8 -8.0 2.0 -16.1 .2 2.4 18.3 -12.5 .1 1.6 -7.5 -8.7 334412–9 28.0 24.4 13.7 33.8 36.8 2.0 -9.6 -7.7 3.9 12.8 2.2 .3 2.8 3.1 3.6 .3 -.2 -1.4 .1 -.1 12.4 13.7 11.1 3.1 7.8 -2.1 -1.6 -3.0 -1.1 .2 -2.5 1.3 -3.8 -6.5 .8 .2 -.7 .9 -1.5 -2.6 -.6 -4.3 -4.6 -3.3 -2.1 -2.4 -2.0 -.3 -.5 -.6 1.3 .2 .5 1.8 2.0 2.3 .0 1.0 -1.5 .8 -1.0 -.4 3.2 2.4 4.4 1.5 2.1 4.4 3.4 3.6 8.9 8.0 3.1 .7 4.3 1.7 12.6 .2 2.1 5.7 .3 .2 .2 .4 .6 .5 -.1 .4 -2.0 -.8 .5 .4 -1.2 .1 -4.6 -3.1 -1.3 -.3 .2 1.3 -.7 1.5 .4 .1 -.2 -.6 .6 -.1 -.4 .2 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing 2 Durable 2.3 2.3 3.5 .3 .3 .7 2.5 3.0 2.8 1.9 2.9 5.2 4.2 3.9 4.4 .3 .3 .0 -.2 -.2 -1.0 -1.0 -1.3 -2.8 .1 .0 -.3 -.3 .0 .2 Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing 2 Durable 2.0 1.9 2.7 1.0 1.1 2.5 3.3 3.9 4.8 3.4 4.7 9.3 5.7 5.8 8.5 .5 .6 .5 -.3 -.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.4 -3.2 .3 .3 .4 -.2 .0 .5 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries and motor vehicles and parts Total industry Manufacturing 2 1.5 1.3 .1 .0 2.9 3.4 2.1 3.1 4.7 4.5 .3 .3 .0 .0 -.7 -1.0 .2 .2 -.4 -.1 Measure of non-energy material inputs to Finished processors Primary and semifinished processors 6.7 3.8 2.2 .7 5.2 4.4 8.3 -.1 11.2 5.0 1.0 .5 -1.3 .5 -2.8 .1 .0 .7 1.9 .4 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished -.2 4.5 1.2 -.4 .6 2.4 3.1 3.2 2.6 -7.2 4.3 5.6 10.1 4.5 4.4 .9 .3 .6 1.3 -.6 -.5 1.1 -1.3 -2.2 1.5 .1 .2 -1.1 .5 -.8 Total industry Energy Consumer products Commercial products Oil and gas well drilling Converted fuel Primary materials Non-energy Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components 213111 Excluding selected high-technology industries Motor vehicles and parts Motor vehicles Motor vehicle parts Excluding motor vehicles and parts Consumer goods Business equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Materials 3361–3 3361 3363 NOTE. Estimates for the third quarter of 2006 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. For 2006, the rates are calculated from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2006 annualized. 2. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing - that have traditionally been considered to be a part of manufacturing and are included in the industrial sector. 20 Table 4 A NNUAL R ATES OF C HANGE FOR I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION 1 Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) Item 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .0 1.1 2.5 3.2 4.3 -.1 .4 -1.6 .1 -.2 1.9 5.4 .6 1.3 3.4 .5 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.8 1.0 3.5 1.2 .1 1.5 -.3 -.9 -.1 .3 -.6 .7 -.7 -1.4 -.3 .7 -.9 1.3 -.3 -.4 -.3 -7.1 -.6 .2 3.8 4.3 .2 7.9 5.5 12.0 2.6 .7 -.4 .2 -1.2 -5.0 -7.6 -1.1 -5.2 -.7 -3.9 Construction supplies Business supplies -.5 .0 -.2 1.5 2.0 2.2 4.8 3.4 4.5 3.1 -.3 -.2 .7 .8 -3.5 -1.0 .8 -.2 -.3 -.2 Materials Non-energy Energy .9 1.2 .0 .9 1.3 -.1 3.1 4.3 -.2 2.2 3.6 -1.3 5.1 6.6 1.6 -.1 -.1 .0 .5 .6 .3 -1.2 -1.5 -.2 .2 .1 .5 .4 .7 .0 I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing2 Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) .0 .2 -.4 1.0 -3.1 1.1 1.3 2.3 .1 -3.0 2.9 3.0 4.0 1.9 .9 3.9 4.0 5.5 2.4 1.8 5.0 5.4 8.1 2.4 -1.9 -.1 -.1 -.2 .0 -.1 .5 .6 .0 1.3 -.1 -1.9 -2.0 -3.3 -.3 -.9 .0 .1 -1.0 1.6 -1.3 -.1 .0 .5 -.2 -1.2 Mining Utilities -4.3 3.1 -.1 1.9 -.6 1.4 -1.6 2.0 2.8 .1 .0 .0 .1 -.1 -.4 .2 .5 -.4 -.1 -.3 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Consumer goods Durable Nondurable Business equipment Defense and space equipment 1. The rates of change are calculated from annual averages of seasonally adjusted industrial production indexes, rather than between the fourth quarter of one year and the fourth quarter of the next. 2. See footnote 2 to table 3. Table 5 R ATES OF C HANGE IN C APACITY, BY I NDUSTRY G ROUPS : 2002–06 1 Item Total industry Manufacturing 2 Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Manufacturing2 ex. selected high-technology industries S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished Difference between revised and earlier changes (percentage points) Revised change (percent) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 .8 -.9 .1 1.1 2.4 .1 -.7 -.5 -.5 .4 .4 .5 .9 .1 -2.4 -.9 -.7 -.2 -1.1 -3.8 .0 .0 .5 -.3 -.1 1.7 1.8 3.3 .3 .6 2.7 2.8 4.2 1.0 .9 .0 .0 -.2 .4 .3 -.8 -.8 -1.4 .0 -.7 -.5 -.5 -.9 .4 -.5 -.3 -.4 -.7 .5 .1 .1 .1 .5 -.3 .8 -.5 4.5 -2.1 3.2 -.3 2.6 -1.7 .0 .6 2.1 .8 .0 -1.1 .1 .3 .0 -1.1 .0 2.0 1.4 12.6 1.4 4.3 18.3 19.6 3.1 -6.6 -2.5 -2.5 7.4 -.4 -.8 -.2 .6 1.4 -.2 -.4 -.3 .0 -.4 .2 .9 .6 -2.2 -1.4 .3 -.1 .4 .5 -1.1 1.4 2.0 .3 3.0 2.3 1.3 .0 .0 -.1 -1.3 -.3 1.0 -.5 -.3 -.2 -1.1 .8 1.4 1.0 -.5 1. Rates of change are calculated as the percent change in the seasonally adjusted index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year specified in the column heading. 2. See footnote 2 to table 3. 21 Table 6 R EVISED AND E ARLIER C APACITY U TILIZATION R ATES , BY I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted Difference between revised and earlier rates (percentage points) Revised Rate 19722004 Ave. 2003 Q4 2004 Q4 2005 Q4 2006 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q4 2005 Q4 2006 Q3 Total industry 81.0 76.8 79.0 80.7 82.3 .3 -.4 .2 -.2 Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) 79.8 79.5 75.0 74.6 77.6 77.2 79.6 79.3 80.9 80.8 .3 .2 -.6 -.6 -.2 -.2 -.3 -.2 321 327 331 332 333 334 78.0 80.2 79.4 80.6 77.2 78.6 78.4 72.4 80.3 79.2 80.4 72.2 70.2 67.1 74.8 81.3 81.1 86.8 73.6 73.5 71.7 78.1 88.5 83.8 83.7 78.0 78.8 75.1 79.6 80.8 82.3 88.6 80.7 82.1 77.2 .2 1.8 -.2 -.2 2.1 .8 .1 -1.5 .3 -1.3 1.8 -.3 -4.8 -1.2 -.9 1.4 .6 .2 1.9 -4.7 -3.1 -.9 1.7 1.0 2.1 2.1 -5.4 -3.7 335 3361–3 83.2 77.6 75.9 79.9 79.1 79.0 83.4 78.6 85.4 75.6 .1 -.4 -2.0 -1.5 -4.3 -1.0 -8.1 -.4 3364–9 337 339 72.4 78.5 76.7 60.4 72.4 75.3 61.5 76.5 75.0 70.3 78.6 78.2 78.0 79.3 78.1 -1.9 -1.3 .6 -3.7 1.3 -1.7 -1.4 5.3 -.2 .0 5.5 -.7 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 81.7 81.6 82.4 78.9 87.9 83.8 86.1 78.3 83.8 77.4 77.8 73.3 66.2 81.7 72.9 89.0 75.2 81.6 80.1 78.2 75.6 67.9 84.5 76.0 94.4 78.5 85.0 80.6 81.4 79.8 71.5 85.0 78.0 87.9 75.7 87.3 82.4 80.9 78.3 74.0 85.4 79.2 92.9 79.6 87.9 .2 -.5 -1.3 -.5 .4 1.3 .6 .7 .4 .2 -1.2 .6 -5.0 -1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 .1 .5 -.5 2.6 -8.8 -.1 .7 .6 1.6 -1.7 .6 -1.0 2.7 -11.4 .4 -1.2 .2 2.3 -2.1 1133,5111 84.8 82.9 85.2 85.2 83.2 .8 .2 -.9 -2.1 21 2211,2 87.3 86.8 88.8 85.5 88.4 84.7 85.0 86.5 91.1 86.0 .7 -.1 .1 .2 2.3 -.4 .1 -1.5 3341 3342 78.0 78.2 75.6 66.8 74.5 49.0 70.7 79.8 54.4 76.5 76.2 63.8 78.5 73.1 71.9 1.1 -.4 1.9 -2.1 3.5 -4.3 .8 -4.2 -10.4 -1.7 -10.0 -12.7 334412–9 80.5 75.6 76.8 83.2 83.8 1.4 -2.6 8.0 6.0 Measures excluding selected high-technology industries Total industry Manufacturing1 81.1 79.9 77.5 75.7 79.5 78.1 80.9 79.8 82.6 81.3 .2 .2 -.3 -.5 .0 -.5 -.3 -.4 S TAGE - OF - PROCESS GROUPS Crude Primary and semifinished Finished 86.4 82.2 77.8 85.2 79.3 72.2 88.0 81.3 73.9 83.0 83.5 76.5 89.5 84.1 77.9 .2 .7 -.2 .2 .0 -1.4 1.6 .9 -1.8 .4 .6 -2.0 Item Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Selected high-technology industries Computers and peripheral equipment Communications equipment Semiconductors and related electronic components N OTE . Estimates for the third quarter of 2006 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 22 Table 7A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Manufacturing 1 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual2 IP (percent change) 1976 1977 1978 1979 1.3 -.3 -1.4 -.9 1.3 1.8 .3 .5 .2 1.5 1.7 .5 .7 1.1 1.6 -1.5 .5 .8 .3 1.2 .0 .8 .8 .2 .8 .1 -.1 .1 .7 .6 .5 -1.3 .2 .2 .4 .2 .1 .3 .8 .3 1.3 .1 .9 -.2 1.1 1.1 .8 .3 13.7 10.4 .4 2.0 6.8 14.6 14.1 -.7 6.0 5.5 4.3 -.8 6.8 4.2 9.0 .0 9.1 8.7 6.1 3.2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 .4 -.3 -2.3 2.4 1.9 -.1 -.7 2.7 -.1 1.1 -.8 .4 -.8 1.0 .5 -2.0 .5 -.7 1.2 .5 -3.1 .6 -.2 1.3 .3 -1.5 -.5 -.2 .8 .5 -.9 .2 -.1 1.5 .5 .7 .1 -.8 .8 .2 1.6 -.5 -.3 1.9 -.2 1.8 -1.0 -1.1 1.2 .4 1.9 -1.1 -.7 .3 .3 .3 -1.6 -.4 .3 .4 1.0 .7 -8.9 8.8 12.9 -18.6 3.3 -1.9 12.4 6.4 -7.6 .3 -4.0 15.6 3.8 19.2 -9.8 -8.4 12.7 2.9 -3.6 1.2 -5.3 4.8 10.0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.4 1.1 -.3 -.2 .7 -.3 -.7 1.4 .1 -1.0 .8 -.3 .1 .3 -.1 -.3 .4 .5 .8 .1 .1 .2 .8 -.1 -.8 .2 -.3 .4 .1 .1 -.6 .5 .7 .1 -1.1 .6 .3 .5 .1 1.0 .1 .2 .6 .4 -.3 -.2 .4 1.6 .6 -.2 .7 .5 .6 .3 .2 .4 .9 .6 .4 .2 .3 4.6 6.0 2.4 1.7 1.1 .0 7.0 4.3 -3.2 .3 2.5 7.2 1.4 -2.9 2.5 5.0 11.4 5.0 .6 1.9 2.3 5.7 5.3 .8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.2 -.8 -.5 1.1 .3 1.4 -.7 .8 .1 .1 .4 -.6 .9 -.2 1.3 -.2 .3 .5 .6 .8 .1 .7 .6 -.1 .7 .2 1.1 .3 -.1 .3 -.2 .2 .8 .3 .5 .3 .3 -.4 -.1 .7 .0 1.1 .1 .6 .4 -.8 -.2 .6 .8 1.0 -1.1 -.2 .4 .4 .8 -.7 -.1 -.1 .6 1.2 4.5 -9.0 .7 4.6 5.5 2.6 2.3 8.1 1.6 9.2 .8 7.4 4.2 1.7 6.0 -6.5 1.8 2.8 7.2 10.1 .8 -1.9 3.8 3.7 6.1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .4 -.9 .1 .8 .4 .0 1.5 1.4 .0 .8 .2 -.3 1.1 -.2 -.1 -.2 1.1 -.3 .6 .3 .0 .7 .8 .5 1.0 .4 1.1 .6 -.6 -.3 -.6 .3 .4 -.4 .5 1.2 .6 1.5 2.6 .7 .9 .7 .9 -.3 -.3 -.1 .0 .8 .9 1.6 .1 .9 1.2 .2 .8 .3 .9 .5 .5 .8 6.4 1.1 9.8 6.3 5.4 .4 9.6 6.6 2.8 4.5 3.1 7.6 10.0 4.1 4.1 4.4 6.5 12.1 7.5 9.9 5.5 4.6 8.5 6.9 5.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 .2 -.6 .4 .5 .0 .3 -.6 .1 .0 .7 .7 -.4 .8 .2 -.1 .7 -.3 .1 -.9 .6 .0 -.7 .6 -.1 .6 .2 -.6 1.1 .6 -.7 -.1 -.3 -.4 .1 .8 -.6 -.7 .4 -.2 .6 .5 -.3 .1 .7 -.3 -.4 -.7 -.5 -.1 .7 -.4 -.3 .4 1.0 .0 -.7 .2 -.4 -.1 .6 5.8 -6.6 3.1 1.7 2.9 5.8 -5.7 5.8 -2.3 3.7 -.7 -6.2 3.1 2.2 3.5 -3.2 -5.0 -.8 3.7 3.7 4.8 -4.2 .0 1.1 2.9 2005 2006 .5 .8 .6 -.2 -.2 .4 .2 1.0 .6 -.2 .4 .9 .1 .4 .4 .4 -.8 -.1 1.5 -.3 .9 .4 5.1 5.5 3.1 5.5 1.9 4.4 7.5 3.9 IP (2002=100) 1976 1977 1978 1979 42.6 45.5 48.7 52.3 43.2 46.3 48.8 52.6 43.3 47.0 49.7 52.9 43.6 47.5 50.5 52.1 43.8 47.8 50.6 52.7 43.8 48.2 51.0 52.8 44.1 48.3 51.0 52.8 44.4 48.6 51.2 52.1 44.5 48.6 51.5 52.2 44.6 48.8 51.9 52.4 45.1 48.8 52.4 52.3 45.6 49.4 52.8 52.5 43.0 46.2 49.1 52.6 43.7 47.9 50.7 52.5 44.4 48.5 51.2 52.4 45.1 49.0 52.3 52.4 44.1 47.9 50.8 52.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 52.7 51.3 48.4 48.3 54.4 52.6 51.0 49.7 48.2 55.0 52.2 51.2 49.4 48.7 55.3 51.2 51.5 49.0 49.3 55.6 49.6 51.8 48.9 49.9 55.7 48.9 51.6 48.8 50.3 56.0 48.4 51.7 48.8 51.1 56.2 48.8 51.8 48.4 51.5 56.3 49.5 51.5 48.2 52.5 56.2 50.4 51.0 47.7 53.1 56.5 51.4 50.4 47.3 53.3 56.7 51.5 49.6 47.1 53.4 56.9 52.5 51.2 49.2 48.4 54.9 49.9 51.6 48.9 49.8 55.7 48.9 51.6 48.4 51.7 56.3 51.1 50.3 47.4 53.2 56.7 50.6 51.2 48.5 50.8 55.9 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 56.7 58.2 59.3 63.9 66.4 56.5 57.8 60.1 63.9 65.8 56.9 57.7 60.2 64.1 65.7 56.8 57.9 60.5 64.7 65.8 56.8 58.0 60.9 64.6 65.2 56.9 57.8 61.2 64.7 65.3 56.6 58.1 61.6 64.8 64.6 57.0 58.3 61.9 64.8 65.2 57.1 58.4 62.3 65.1 65.0 56.9 58.6 63.2 65.5 64.9 57.3 58.9 63.6 65.6 65.0 57.5 59.4 64.0 65.9 65.2 56.7 57.9 59.8 64.0 66.0 56.9 57.9 60.9 64.7 65.4 56.9 58.3 61.9 64.9 64.9 57.2 59.0 63.6 65.7 65.0 56.9 58.3 61.6 64.8 65.3 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 65.1 64.1 65.0 68.8 71.2 66.0 63.7 65.6 68.9 71.3 66.2 63.3 66.2 68.8 72.2 66.1 63.5 66.5 69.2 72.8 66.2 64.0 66.9 69.1 73.2 66.3 64.7 67.2 69.0 73.4 66.2 64.8 67.7 69.3 73.8 66.4 65.0 67.5 69.2 74.3 66.4 65.7 67.5 69.7 74.6 65.9 65.6 67.9 70.3 75.3 65.1 65.5 68.2 70.6 75.9 64.6 65.4 68.1 71.0 76.8 65.8 63.7 65.6 68.8 71.6 66.2 64.0 66.9 69.1 73.2 66.3 65.2 67.6 69.4 74.2 65.2 65.5 68.0 70.6 76.0 65.9 64.6 67.0 69.5 73.7 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 77.2 78.2 84.4 93.0 97.1 77.2 79.4 85.6 93.1 97.9 77.3 79.2 86.6 92.9 97.8 77.2 80.1 86.3 93.5 98.2 77.2 80.7 87.0 94.0 99.1 77.5 81.5 87.5 93.4 98.8 77.0 81.7 87.8 93.1 99.3 78.0 82.3 89.2 95.5 100.1 78.7 82.8 90.0 95.2 99.7 78.6 82.8 90.7 96.1 101.3 78.7 83.6 91.8 96.2 102.1 78.9 84.3 92.3 96.7 102.9 77.2 78.9 85.5 93.0 97.6 77.3 80.8 86.9 93.6 98.7 77.9 82.3 89.0 94.6 99.7 78.7 83.6 91.6 96.3 102.1 77.8 81.4 88.3 94.4 99.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 103.1 102.8 98.3 100.9 102.1 103.4 102.2 98.4 100.9 102.9 104.1 101.7 99.2 101.2 102.8 104.9 101.4 99.3 100.3 103.4 104.9 100.7 99.8 100.2 104.0 105.2 100.1 100.9 100.8 103.3 105.1 99.7 100.5 100.9 104.1 104.5 99.0 100.9 100.6 104.7 104.9 98.7 101.0 101.4 104.4 104.5 98.0 100.4 101.3 105.2 104.1 97.7 100.8 102.2 105.2 103.4 97.9 100.4 102.1 105.8 103.5 102.2 98.6 101.0 102.6 105.0 100.7 100.0 100.4 103.5 104.8 99.1 100.8 100.9 104.4 104.0 97.9 100.6 101.9 105.4 104.3 100.0 100.0 101.1 104.0 2005 2006 106.4 111.5 107.0 111.2 106.7 111.7 106.9 112.8 107.6 112.6 108.0 113.5 108.1 113.9 108.4 114.4 107.5 114.2 109.2 113.9 110.1 110.6 106.7 111.5 107.5 113.0 108.0 114.2 110.0 108.0 Year N OTE Estimates from August 2006 through October 2006 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 23 Table 7B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing 1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1976 1977 1978 1979 55.7 57.3 59.3 61.4 55.8 57.4 59.5 61.6 55.9 57.6 59.6 61.8 56.0 57.7 59.8 61.9 56.2 57.9 60.0 62.1 56.3 58.1 60.2 62.3 56.4 58.2 60.4 62.4 56.6 58.4 60.5 62.6 56.7 58.6 60.7 62.7 56.8 58.7 60.9 62.9 57.0 58.9 61.1 63.1 57.1 59.1 61.2 63.2 55.8 57.4 59.5 61.6 56.2 57.9 60.0 62.1 56.6 58.4 60.5 62.6 57.0 58.9 61.1 63.1 56.4 58.2 60.3 62.3 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 63.4 65.5 67.6 68.9 69.5 63.5 65.7 67.7 68.9 69.6 63.7 65.9 67.9 69.0 69.8 63.8 66.0 68.0 69.0 69.9 64.0 66.2 68.1 69.0 70.0 64.2 66.4 68.3 69.1 70.2 64.4 66.6 68.4 69.1 70.4 64.5 66.7 68.5 69.2 70.6 64.7 66.9 68.6 69.2 70.8 64.9 67.1 68.7 69.3 71.0 65.1 67.2 68.8 69.3 71.2 65.3 67.4 68.8 69.4 71.4 63.5 65.7 67.7 68.9 69.6 64.0 66.2 68.1 69.0 70.0 64.5 66.7 68.5 69.2 70.6 65.1 67.2 68.7 69.3 71.2 64.3 66.5 68.3 69.1 70.4 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 71.6 73.7 75.1 76.9 77.8 71.9 73.8 75.3 77.0 77.9 72.1 73.9 75.4 77.1 78.0 72.3 74.0 75.6 77.1 78.2 72.5 74.1 75.8 77.1 78.4 72.7 74.2 76.0 77.2 78.5 72.9 74.3 76.2 77.2 78.7 73.1 74.4 76.3 77.3 78.9 73.2 74.5 76.5 77.4 79.1 73.4 74.6 76.6 77.4 79.3 73.5 74.8 76.7 77.5 79.4 73.6 74.9 76.8 77.6 79.6 71.9 73.8 75.3 77.0 77.9 72.5 74.1 75.8 77.1 78.4 73.1 74.4 76.3 77.3 78.9 73.5 74.8 76.7 77.5 79.4 72.7 74.3 76.0 77.2 78.6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 79.8 81.8 83.4 85.6 87.6 80.0 81.9 83.6 85.8 87.8 80.2 82.1 83.8 85.9 88.0 80.3 82.2 83.9 86.1 88.3 80.5 82.3 84.1 86.2 88.5 80.7 82.5 84.3 86.4 88.8 80.8 82.6 84.5 86.5 89.1 81.0 82.7 84.7 86.7 89.4 81.2 82.9 84.9 86.8 89.8 81.3 83.0 85.1 87.0 90.1 81.5 83.1 85.3 87.2 90.5 81.6 83.3 85.5 87.4 90.9 80.0 81.9 83.6 85.8 87.8 80.5 82.3 84.1 86.2 88.5 81.0 82.7 84.7 86.7 89.4 81.5 83.1 85.3 87.2 90.5 80.7 82.5 84.4 86.5 89.1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 91.2 96.6 102.8 111.3 119.9 91.6 97.1 103.4 112.1 120.5 92.1 97.6 104.0 112.9 121.1 92.5 98.1 104.6 113.7 121.7 92.9 98.6 105.2 114.5 122.2 93.3 99.1 105.9 115.3 122.8 93.8 99.6 106.6 116.0 123.4 94.2 100.1 107.3 116.7 124.0 94.7 100.6 108.0 117.4 124.6 95.1 101.2 108.8 118.1 125.2 95.6 101.7 109.6 118.7 125.8 96.1 102.2 110.4 119.3 126.4 91.6 97.1 103.4 112.1 120.5 92.9 98.6 105.2 114.5 122.2 94.2 100.1 107.3 116.7 124.0 95.6 101.7 109.6 118.7 125.8 93.6 99.4 106.4 115.5 123.1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 127.1 133.6 136.8 136.8 135.7 127.7 134.0 136.9 136.7 135.7 128.3 134.4 137.0 136.6 135.7 128.9 134.7 137.1 136.5 135.7 129.5 135.1 137.1 136.4 135.7 130.1 135.4 137.2 136.2 135.7 130.7 135.6 137.2 136.1 135.7 131.2 135.9 137.2 136.0 135.7 131.7 136.1 137.1 135.9 135.8 132.2 136.3 137.1 135.9 135.8 132.7 136.5 137.0 135.8 135.9 133.2 136.6 136.9 135.8 136.0 127.7 134.0 136.9 136.7 135.7 129.5 135.1 137.1 136.4 135.7 131.2 135.9 137.2 136.0 135.7 132.7 136.5 137.0 135.8 135.9 130.3 135.4 137.1 136.2 135.7 2005 2006 136.0 138.9 136.2 139.2 136.3 139.5 136.5 139.9 136.6 140.2 136.9 140.5 137.1 140.8 137.3 141.1 137.6 141.3 137.9 141.6 138.2 138.6 136.2 139.2 136.6 140.2 137.4 141.1 138.2 137.1 Utilization (percent) 1976 1977 1978 1979 76.5 79.4 82.1 85.2 77.4 80.6 82.1 85.4 77.4 81.6 83.3 85.6 77.8 82.3 84.4 84.0 78.0 82.7 84.3 84.8 77.8 83.1 84.8 84.7 78.3 82.9 84.5 84.6 78.6 83.2 84.6 83.3 78.6 83.1 84.8 83.3 78.4 83.1 85.2 83.3 79.3 82.9 85.7 82.9 79.9 83.6 86.2 83.0 77.1 80.6 82.5 85.4 77.9 82.7 84.5 84.5 78.5 83.1 84.6 83.7 79.2 83.2 85.7 83.1 78.2 82.4 84.3 84.2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 83.1 78.4 71.7 70.1 78.2 82.9 77.7 73.5 69.9 79.0 82.0 77.8 72.7 70.6 79.2 80.1 77.9 72.1 71.4 79.5 77.5 78.2 71.8 72.3 79.5 76.1 77.6 71.5 72.8 79.7 75.2 77.6 71.3 73.9 79.9 75.5 77.5 70.6 74.4 79.8 76.5 77.0 70.3 75.8 79.4 77.7 76.0 69.4 76.6 79.5 78.9 75.0 68.9 76.8 79.6 78.9 73.6 68.5 76.9 79.6 82.7 78.0 72.6 70.2 78.8 77.9 77.9 71.8 72.2 79.6 75.8 77.4 70.7 74.7 79.7 78.5 74.8 68.9 76.8 79.6 78.7 77.0 71.0 73.5 79.4 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 79.1 78.9 78.9 83.0 85.4 78.6 78.3 79.9 83.0 84.4 79.0 78.0 79.7 83.2 84.2 78.5 78.2 79.9 83.9 84.1 78.4 78.3 80.4 83.7 83.2 78.3 77.9 80.5 83.8 83.2 77.7 78.2 80.9 83.8 82.1 78.0 78.3 81.1 83.9 82.6 77.9 78.4 81.4 84.1 82.2 77.6 78.5 82.5 84.5 81.9 77.9 78.8 82.9 84.7 81.9 78.2 79.3 83.2 84.9 81.8 78.9 78.4 79.5 83.1 84.7 78.4 78.1 80.3 83.8 83.5 77.9 78.3 81.1 83.9 82.3 77.9 78.9 82.9 84.7 81.9 78.3 78.4 80.9 83.9 83.1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 81.5 78.4 78.0 80.3 81.3 82.5 77.7 78.5 80.3 81.2 82.6 77.1 79.0 80.0 82.1 82.2 77.2 79.3 80.3 82.5 82.2 77.7 79.6 80.1 82.7 82.2 78.4 79.7 79.9 82.7 81.9 78.5 80.2 80.1 82.8 81.9 78.6 79.7 79.9 83.1 81.8 79.3 79.5 80.2 83.1 81.0 79.0 79.8 80.8 83.6 79.9 78.7 79.9 80.9 83.9 79.2 78.5 79.6 81.3 84.6 82.2 77.7 78.5 80.2 81.5 82.2 77.8 79.5 80.1 82.6 81.8 78.8 79.8 80.0 83.0 80.0 78.8 79.8 81.0 84.0 81.6 78.3 79.4 80.3 82.8 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 84.6 81.0 82.1 83.6 81.0 84.2 81.8 82.8 83.0 81.2 84.0 81.2 83.3 82.3 80.8 83.5 81.7 82.5 82.2 80.7 83.1 81.8 82.7 82.1 81.1 83.1 82.3 82.7 81.0 80.5 82.2 82.0 82.4 80.2 80.5 82.7 82.1 83.2 81.8 80.7 83.1 82.3 83.3 81.1 80.0 82.6 81.8 83.4 81.4 80.9 82.3 82.2 83.8 81.1 81.1 82.1 82.5 83.6 81.1 81.4 84.3 81.3 82.8 83.0 81.0 83.2 81.9 82.6 81.8 80.7 82.7 82.2 83.0 81.0 80.4 82.3 82.2 83.6 81.2 81.1 83.1 81.9 83.0 81.7 80.8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 81.1 76.9 71.9 73.7 75.3 81.0 76.2 71.9 73.8 75.8 81.2 75.7 72.4 74.1 75.7 81.4 75.3 72.4 73.5 76.2 81.0 74.6 72.8 73.5 76.6 80.8 73.9 73.6 74.0 76.1 80.4 73.5 73.2 74.1 76.7 79.6 72.9 73.5 74.0 77.2 79.7 72.5 73.6 74.6 76.9 79.0 71.9 73.3 74.5 77.4 78.4 71.6 73.6 75.3 77.4 77.6 71.7 73.3 75.2 77.8 81.1 76.3 72.0 73.9 75.6 81.1 74.6 72.9 73.6 76.3 79.9 73.0 73.5 74.2 76.9 78.3 71.7 73.4 75.0 77.6 80.1 73.9 73.0 74.2 76.6 2005 2006 78.2 80.3 78.6 79.9 78.3 80.1 78.4 80.7 78.7 80.3 78.9 80.8 78.8 80.9 79.0 81.1 78.1 80.8 79.2 80.5 79.7 79.8 78.4 80.1 78.7 80.6 78.6 80.9 79.6 78.8 N OTE Estimates from August 2006 through October 2006 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 24 Table 8A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries1 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual2 IP (percent change) 1976 1977 1978 1979 1.4 -.6 -1.4 -.8 .9 1.4 .4 .5 .0 1.2 1.8 .3 .6 .8 2.1 -1.1 .4 .7 .3 .7 .0 .6 .7 -.1 .5 .2 -.1 -.3 .6 .0 .3 -.8 .1 .4 .2 .0 .0 .2 .8 .5 1.5 .0 .6 -.2 1.0 .1 .5 .0 12.2 7.9 -2.0 .8 4.5 11.8 16.3 -1.3 4.3 4.1 2.6 -2.7 6.8 2.0 6.6 .3 7.4 6.9 4.7 2.1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 .4 -.7 -2.0 1.9 2.0 -.1 -.6 1.8 -.7 .3 -.4 .5 -.7 .8 .4 -2.1 -.6 -.9 1.1 .5 -2.6 .7 -.7 .7 .4 -1.3 .5 -.5 .5 .2 -.7 .6 -.5 1.4 .2 .2 -.1 -.8 1.2 .0 1.7 -.7 -.5 1.3 -.2 1.2 -.9 -.9 .8 -.2 1.7 -1.1 -.5 .2 .3 .5 -1.2 -.9 .4 .1 .6 .0 -8.6 3.6 11.4 -16.9 .5 -5.8 8.5 5.0 -6.9 3.6 -6.6 13.8 1.5 15.9 -9.6 -8.1 9.6 -.3 -3.6 .6 -6.0 1.8 7.9 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.3 .5 -.5 .0 .3 .5 -.8 1.2 .4 -.5 .2 -.7 .2 .2 .3 -.1 .0 .5 .5 -.1 .1 .1 .6 -.2 -.7 .0 -.2 .4 .2 .0 -.5 .3 .5 .1 -1.1 .4 -.2 .6 .5 .9 .5 .2 .2 -.4 -.3 -.4 .4 1.4 .5 -.2 .3 .4 .5 .2 .3 1.1 .8 .4 .4 .7 .9 2.3 4.4 3.0 1.8 1.1 -2.7 6.4 2.7 -2.0 -.2 .5 6.1 1.4 -3.3 2.6 4.0 9.0 2.9 1.0 1.0 .9 4.3 4.4 .6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.7 -.5 -.8 .5 .4 .9 -.8 .7 .3 .0 .4 -.6 .7 -.1 .9 -.2 .2 .6 .3 .3 .1 1.0 .3 -.4 .4 .2 1.0 -.1 .2 .6 -.2 .0 .8 .3 .1 .3 .1 -.6 -.1 .3 .1 .9 .2 .4 .0 -.8 -.2 .6 .7 .6 -1.2 -.2 .3 .3 .4 -.7 -.5 .0 .5 .9 2.2 -8.1 -1.9 3.0 4.2 2.3 2.2 6.1 .4 5.4 1.0 5.4 1.8 1.6 3.3 -6.5 .4 2.9 5.1 5.5 .3 -2.0 1.9 2.5 4.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .2 -1.0 -.1 .2 .2 -.2 1.4 .8 -.1 .2 -.2 -.4 .5 -.1 -.1 -.3 .8 -.4 .2 -.2 .0 .4 .3 .5 .6 .1 .7 .2 -.9 -.5 -.5 -.5 .3 -.8 .3 1.1 .4 1.0 2.0 .4 .1 .4 .7 -.6 -.5 -.5 -.2 .7 .5 1.2 .1 .8 .7 -.3 .3 .2 .5 .2 .0 .6 3.0 -.3 5.0 1.7 .9 -1.4 6.0 2.1 1.0 .3 1.5 2.2 6.0 -.2 1.2 .4 3.4 8.3 2.2 5.5 2.4 1.7 4.2 3.1 1.2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -.3 -.7 .7 .5 .1 .0 -.5 .1 .2 .6 .1 -.4 .8 -.3 -.6 .4 -.1 .4 -.8 .7 .0 -.6 .4 -.1 .6 -.1 -.4 .9 .2 -.8 -.5 -.3 -.3 .3 .7 -.4 -.3 .1 -.1 .2 .4 -.5 .0 .5 -.2 -.6 -.6 -.4 -.1 .7 -.2 -.5 .3 .8 .2 -.5 -.1 -.6 -.1 .6 .7 -6.4 2.9 1.0 1.9 1.7 -4.1 6.1 -4.0 2.6 -2.9 -4.3 1.7 1.7 1.6 -3.0 -5.3 -1.3 2.7 4.0 1.1 -4.1 .1 .2 1.9 2005 2006 .2 -.1 .5 .2 -.2 .4 -.1 .7 .3 -.2 .6 .8 -.1 .3 .2 .1 -1.9 -.7 1.0 .1 1.0 .8 3.8 4.5 1.5 5.2 -.5 2.8 3.0 2.5 IP (2002=100) 1976 1977 1978 1979 65.0 68.3 71.3 76.2 65.6 69.3 71.6 76.6 65.6 70.1 72.9 76.8 66.0 70.7 74.4 76.0 66.2 71.2 74.6 76.5 66.2 71.7 75.1 76.4 66.5 71.8 75.0 76.2 67.0 71.8 75.2 75.6 67.0 72.1 75.3 75.5 67.1 72.3 75.9 75.9 68.1 72.2 76.4 75.8 68.7 72.3 76.8 75.8 65.4 69.3 71.9 76.5 66.1 71.2 74.7 76.3 66.8 71.9 75.2 75.8 68.0 72.3 76.4 75.8 66.6 71.2 74.5 76.1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 76.1 74.1 70.5 68.2 75.2 76.0 73.6 71.8 67.7 75.4 75.7 74.0 71.2 68.3 75.7 74.1 73.5 70.6 69.0 76.1 72.2 74.0 70.0 69.5 76.4 71.2 74.4 69.7 69.9 76.6 70.7 74.9 69.4 70.9 76.7 70.9 74.8 68.8 71.7 76.7 72.0 74.3 68.5 72.6 76.5 72.9 73.6 67.9 73.2 76.4 74.2 72.8 67.6 73.4 76.6 74.6 71.9 66.9 73.7 76.7 75.9 73.9 71.2 68.1 75.4 72.5 74.0 70.1 69.5 76.3 71.2 74.6 68.9 71.8 76.6 73.9 72.8 67.5 73.4 76.6 73.4 73.8 69.4 70.7 76.2 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 76.5 78.5 78.4 83.6 85.9 76.8 77.8 79.3 83.9 85.5 77.0 77.3 79.5 84.1 85.8 76.9 77.3 79.8 84.5 85.7 77.0 77.4 80.3 84.4 85.1 77.0 77.3 80.7 84.5 85.1 76.6 77.5 81.1 84.6 84.2 76.9 77.3 81.6 85.0 85.0 77.3 77.5 81.7 84.7 84.7 77.0 77.8 82.9 85.1 84.5 77.2 78.1 83.3 85.3 84.7 78.0 78.7 83.6 85.7 85.3 76.7 77.9 79.1 83.9 85.7 77.0 77.3 80.3 84.4 85.3 76.9 77.4 81.5 84.7 84.6 77.4 78.2 83.3 85.4 84.8 77.0 77.7 81.0 84.6 85.1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 84.7 83.4 83.4 86.7 89.1 85.4 82.7 84.0 87.0 89.0 85.8 82.2 84.6 86.9 89.8 85.6 82.4 85.1 87.2 90.1 85.7 83.2 85.3 86.8 90.4 85.9 84.0 85.2 86.9 91.0 85.8 84.0 85.9 87.2 91.0 86.0 84.1 85.4 87.2 91.3 86.1 84.8 85.5 87.5 91.4 85.5 84.6 86.1 88.1 91.9 84.4 84.5 86.3 88.4 92.3 83.8 84.0 86.3 88.8 93.2 85.3 82.8 84.0 86.9 89.3 85.8 83.2 85.2 87.0 90.5 86.0 84.3 85.6 87.3 91.2 84.6 84.4 86.2 88.4 92.5 85.4 83.7 85.3 87.4 90.9 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 93.3 92.5 96.3 101.5 102.3 93.1 93.7 97.2 101.4 102.5 93.0 93.4 97.6 101.3 102.4 92.7 94.1 97.3 101.6 102.2 92.8 94.5 97.6 102.1 102.8 92.9 95.1 97.8 101.2 102.4 92.4 94.7 98.1 100.5 102.7 93.5 95.1 99.1 102.5 103.1 93.6 95.4 99.8 101.9 102.5 93.1 95.2 100.5 102.4 103.8 93.2 96.0 101.2 102.0 104.1 93.4 96.4 101.3 102.1 104.6 93.2 93.2 97.1 101.4 102.4 92.8 94.6 97.5 101.7 102.5 93.2 95.1 99.0 101.6 102.8 93.3 95.9 101.0 102.2 104.1 93.1 94.7 98.6 101.7 102.9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 104.3 102.1 98.5 100.6 100.9 104.3 101.5 98.5 100.7 101.6 104.4 101.1 99.3 100.4 100.9 104.8 101.0 99.7 99.6 101.6 104.8 100.5 100.1 99.5 102.3 104.7 100.0 101.0 99.6 101.5 104.2 99.8 100.6 99.9 102.1 103.8 99.4 100.7 99.8 102.3 104.2 99.0 100.7 100.3 102.1 103.6 98.4 100.3 100.1 102.8 103.4 97.9 100.6 100.9 103.1 102.8 97.8 100.0 100.8 103.7 104.3 101.6 98.8 100.6 101.1 104.8 100.5 100.2 99.6 101.8 104.0 99.4 100.7 100.0 102.2 103.2 98.0 100.3 100.6 103.2 104.1 99.9 100.0 100.2 102.1 2005 2006 103.9 106.1 104.4 106.3 104.2 106.8 104.2 107.6 104.4 107.4 105.1 108.3 105.0 108.6 105.2 108.8 103.2 108.0 104.2 108.1 105.3 106.2 104.2 106.4 104.6 107.7 104.4 108.5 105.2 104.6 Year N OTE Estimates from August 2006 through October 2006 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 2. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 25 Table 8B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries1 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1976 1977 1978 1979 82.4 84.2 86.6 88.7 82.6 84.3 86.8 88.9 82.7 84.5 87.0 89.0 82.8 84.7 87.2 89.2 83.0 84.9 87.4 89.3 83.1 85.1 87.6 89.5 83.3 85.3 87.7 89.6 83.4 85.5 87.9 89.7 83.5 85.7 88.1 89.9 83.7 85.9 88.3 90.0 83.8 86.1 88.4 90.1 84.0 86.4 88.6 90.3 82.6 84.3 86.8 88.9 83.0 84.9 87.4 89.3 83.4 85.5 87.9 89.7 83.8 86.1 88.4 90.1 83.2 85.2 87.6 89.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 90.4 92.0 93.9 94.9 94.8 90.5 92.2 94.0 94.9 94.8 90.7 92.3 94.1 94.9 94.9 90.8 92.5 94.3 94.8 94.9 90.9 92.6 94.4 94.8 95.0 91.1 92.8 94.5 94.8 95.1 91.2 92.9 94.6 94.8 95.2 91.3 93.1 94.7 94.8 95.3 91.5 93.3 94.7 94.8 95.4 91.6 93.4 94.8 94.7 95.5 91.8 93.6 94.8 94.8 95.7 91.9 93.7 94.9 94.8 95.8 90.5 92.2 94.0 94.9 94.8 90.9 92.6 94.4 94.8 95.0 91.3 93.1 94.7 94.8 95.3 91.8 93.6 94.8 94.8 95.7 91.1 92.9 94.5 94.8 95.2 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 96.0 97.9 99.0 100.0 100.6 96.2 98.0 99.1 100.1 100.7 96.3 98.1 99.2 100.1 100.9 96.5 98.2 99.3 100.1 101.0 96.7 98.3 99.4 100.2 101.1 96.9 98.4 99.5 100.2 101.3 97.0 98.4 99.6 100.2 101.4 97.2 98.5 99.7 100.3 101.6 97.3 98.6 99.8 100.3 101.7 97.5 98.7 99.9 100.4 101.9 97.6 98.8 99.9 100.4 102.1 97.8 98.9 100.0 100.5 102.2 96.2 98.0 99.1 100.1 100.7 96.7 98.3 99.4 100.2 101.1 97.2 98.5 99.7 100.3 101.6 97.6 98.8 99.9 100.4 102.1 96.9 98.4 99.5 100.2 101.4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 102.4 104.2 105.6 106.8 107.9 102.6 104.3 105.7 106.8 108.0 102.7 104.4 105.8 106.9 108.1 102.9 104.6 105.9 107.0 108.2 103.0 104.7 106.0 107.1 108.4 103.2 104.8 106.1 107.2 108.5 103.3 105.0 106.2 107.3 108.7 103.5 105.1 106.3 107.4 108.8 103.6 105.2 106.4 107.5 109.0 103.7 105.3 106.5 107.6 109.2 103.9 105.4 106.6 107.7 109.4 104.0 105.5 106.7 107.8 109.6 102.6 104.3 105.7 106.8 108.0 103.0 104.7 106.0 107.1 108.4 103.5 105.1 106.3 107.4 108.8 103.9 105.4 106.6 107.7 109.4 103.2 104.9 106.1 107.2 108.6 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 109.8 112.5 115.5 120.3 124.5 110.0 112.7 115.8 120.7 124.8 110.2 112.9 116.2 121.1 125.1 110.5 113.1 116.6 121.5 125.4 110.7 113.3 116.9 121.9 125.6 110.9 113.5 117.4 122.3 125.9 111.2 113.8 117.8 122.6 126.2 111.4 114.0 118.2 122.9 126.4 111.6 114.3 118.6 123.3 126.7 111.8 114.6 119.1 123.6 126.9 112.0 114.8 119.5 123.9 127.1 112.3 115.2 119.9 124.2 127.3 110.0 112.7 115.8 120.7 124.8 110.7 113.3 117.0 121.9 125.6 111.4 114.0 118.2 122.9 126.4 112.0 114.8 119.5 123.9 127.1 111.0 113.7 117.6 122.4 126.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 127.5 129.5 131.0 130.7 129.9 127.7 129.6 131.1 130.6 129.9 127.9 129.7 131.2 130.5 129.9 128.1 129.9 131.2 130.4 129.9 128.3 130.0 131.3 130.2 129.9 128.4 130.1 131.3 130.1 129.9 128.6 130.3 131.3 130.0 129.9 128.8 130.4 131.2 130.0 129.9 128.9 130.5 131.2 129.9 129.9 129.1 130.7 131.1 129.9 129.8 129.2 130.8 131.0 129.9 129.8 129.3 130.9 130.9 129.9 129.8 127.7 129.6 131.1 130.6 129.9 128.3 130.0 131.3 130.2 129.9 128.8 130.4 131.2 130.0 129.9 129.2 130.8 131.0 129.9 129.8 128.5 130.2 131.1 130.2 129.9 2005 2006 129.7 130.2 129.7 130.4 129.7 130.5 129.7 130.7 129.6 130.8 129.7 131.0 129.7 131.2 129.7 131.3 129.8 131.5 129.9 131.6 130.0 130.1 129.7 130.4 129.7 130.8 129.7 131.3 130.0 129.8 Utilization (percent) 1976 1977 1978 1979 78.9 81.2 82.4 85.9 79.5 82.2 82.5 86.2 79.4 83.0 83.8 86.3 79.7 83.5 85.3 85.2 79.8 83.9 85.4 85.6 79.7 84.2 85.8 85.4 79.9 84.2 85.5 85.0 80.3 84.0 85.5 84.2 80.3 84.1 85.5 84.1 80.2 84.1 86.0 84.4 81.2 83.9 86.4 84.0 81.8 83.8 86.7 83.9 79.2 82.1 82.9 86.1 79.7 83.9 85.5 85.4 80.2 84.1 85.5 84.4 81.1 83.9 86.4 84.1 80.0 83.5 85.1 85.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 84.1 80.5 75.1 71.9 79.3 84.0 79.8 76.3 71.4 79.5 83.5 80.2 75.7 72.0 79.8 81.6 79.5 74.8 72.8 80.1 79.4 79.9 74.2 73.3 80.4 78.2 80.2 73.8 73.7 80.5 77.5 80.6 73.4 74.8 80.6 77.6 80.3 72.7 75.7 80.5 78.8 79.6 72.3 76.7 80.2 79.6 78.8 71.6 77.3 79.9 80.8 77.8 71.3 77.4 80.1 81.1 76.7 70.6 77.8 80.0 83.9 80.2 75.7 71.7 79.5 79.7 79.9 74.3 73.3 80.4 78.0 80.2 72.8 75.7 80.4 80.5 77.8 71.1 77.5 80.0 80.5 79.5 73.5 74.6 80.1 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 79.7 80.2 79.2 83.6 85.4 79.9 79.4 80.1 83.9 84.9 79.9 78.8 80.1 84.0 85.1 79.7 78.8 80.4 84.4 84.9 79.6 78.8 80.8 84.2 84.2 79.5 78.6 81.1 84.3 84.0 78.9 78.8 81.4 84.4 83.0 79.1 78.5 81.8 84.8 83.6 79.4 78.6 81.9 84.4 83.2 79.0 78.8 83.0 84.8 82.9 79.1 79.1 83.3 84.9 83.0 79.8 79.6 83.6 85.2 83.4 79.8 79.5 79.8 83.8 85.1 79.6 78.7 80.8 84.3 84.3 79.1 78.6 81.7 84.5 83.3 79.3 79.2 83.3 85.0 83.1 79.5 79.0 81.4 84.4 84.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 82.7 80.0 79.0 81.2 82.6 83.3 79.3 79.4 81.4 82.5 83.5 78.7 79.9 81.3 83.1 83.2 78.8 80.4 81.4 83.2 83.2 79.5 80.5 81.0 83.5 83.3 80.1 80.3 81.1 83.8 83.0 80.1 80.9 81.3 83.8 83.1 80.0 80.3 81.2 83.9 83.1 80.6 80.4 81.4 83.8 82.4 80.4 80.8 81.9 84.2 81.2 80.1 81.0 82.1 84.4 80.5 79.6 80.9 82.4 85.0 83.2 79.4 79.4 81.3 82.7 83.2 79.5 80.4 81.2 83.5 83.1 80.2 80.5 81.3 83.8 81.4 80.1 80.9 82.1 84.5 82.7 79.8 80.3 81.5 83.6 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 85.0 82.2 83.4 84.3 82.2 84.7 83.2 83.9 84.0 82.1 84.4 82.7 84.1 83.6 81.8 84.0 83.2 83.5 83.6 81.5 83.8 83.4 83.4 83.8 81.8 83.8 83.8 83.3 82.8 81.3 83.2 83.2 83.3 82.0 81.4 83.9 83.4 83.8 83.3 81.5 83.9 83.5 84.1 82.6 81.0 83.3 83.1 84.4 82.8 81.8 83.2 83.6 84.7 82.4 81.9 83.2 83.8 84.5 82.2 82.2 84.7 82.7 83.8 84.0 82.1 83.9 83.4 83.4 83.4 81.6 83.6 83.4 83.7 82.7 81.3 83.2 83.5 84.5 82.5 81.9 83.9 83.3 83.9 83.1 81.7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 81.8 78.8 75.2 76.9 77.7 81.7 78.3 75.2 77.1 78.2 81.6 77.9 75.7 77.0 77.7 81.8 77.8 75.9 76.4 78.2 81.7 77.3 76.2 76.4 78.7 81.5 76.9 76.9 76.6 78.1 81.0 76.6 76.7 76.8 78.6 80.6 76.3 76.7 76.8 78.8 80.8 75.8 76.8 77.2 78.6 80.2 75.3 76.5 77.1 79.2 80.0 74.9 76.8 77.7 79.4 79.5 74.7 76.4 77.7 79.9 81.7 78.4 75.3 77.0 77.9 81.7 77.3 76.4 76.4 78.4 80.8 76.2 76.7 76.9 78.7 79.9 75.0 76.6 77.5 79.5 81.0 76.7 76.3 77.0 78.6 2005 2006 80.1 81.5 80.5 81.5 80.4 81.8 80.3 82.3 80.6 82.1 81.1 82.7 80.9 82.8 81.1 82.9 79.5 82.2 80.2 82.1 81.0 81.6 80.3 81.6 80.6 82.3 80.5 82.6 80.9 80.6 N OTE Estimates from August 2006 through October 2006 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 26 Table 9A I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual3 IP (percent change) 1976 1977 1978 1979 1.3 -.3 -1.5 -1.0 1.3 1.6 .2 .4 .1 1.5 1.6 .4 .6 1.0 1.6 -1.6 .4 .7 .2 1.2 .0 .7 .7 .0 .6 .1 -.2 .0 .6 .5 .4 -1.5 .0 .1 .4 .1 .0 .2 .7 .3 1.2 .0 .8 -.4 1.0 1.1 .8 .2 13.2 9.9 -.4 .5 5.9 13.5 13.4 -1.8 4.8 4.5 3.1 -2.5 5.5 3.2 7.8 -1.5 8.5 7.7 5.2 2.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 .3 -.5 -2.4 2.4 1.8 -.2 -.8 2.5 -.2 .9 -.9 .4 -.8 .9 .4 -2.2 .3 -.8 1.0 .4 -3.2 .6 -.3 1.3 .1 -1.6 -.5 -.3 .7 .3 -1.0 .2 -.3 1.3 .3 .6 .0 -.8 .9 .0 1.7 -.6 -.5 1.5 -.3 1.8 -1.2 -1.2 1.1 .4 1.8 -1.2 -.8 .2 .3 .2 -1.8 -.6 .2 .3 -.4 -.5 -10.3 8.0 11.4 -20.1 2.1 -3.1 11.2 4.4 -8.6 -1.0 -4.9 14.2 2.0 19.0 -11.4 -9.4 11.0 1.9 -4.9 .1 -6.6 3.6 8.4 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -.5 1.2 -.5 -.2 .8 -.3 -.7 1.4 .2 -1.1 .9 -.3 .1 .2 -.1 -.2 .4 .4 .8 .0 .1 .1 .7 -.2 -.9 .1 -.2 .3 .0 .1 -.4 .2 .6 .0 -1.3 .6 .2 .3 .1 .9 .2 .2 .5 .3 -.3 -.3 .3 1.5 .5 -.3 .6 .4 .5 .3 .1 .4 .8 .5 .4 .1 -.2 4.7 4.7 1.9 2.0 1.7 -.3 5.9 3.5 -3.6 .7 1.2 5.7 .5 -4.0 2.5 4.3 10.4 4.6 -.4 1.4 2.2 4.6 4.4 .4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -.3 -.8 -.8 1.1 .1 1.4 -.8 .8 .0 .0 .3 -.8 .9 -.3 1.2 -.3 .4 .4 .5 .6 .1 .6 .5 -.1 .5 .2 1.1 .1 -.2 .2 -.2 .3 .7 .3 .3 .3 .2 -.5 -.2 .5 -.1 1.1 .0 .5 .1 -.8 -.2 .4 .7 .7 -1.2 -.3 .3 .3 .6 -.8 -.3 -.2 .5 .9 3.7 -9.8 -1.2 3.8 3.9 2.0 1.5 6.9 .8 7.1 .3 7.1 2.6 .6 3.9 -7.2 1.0 1.5 5.7 6.7 .0 -2.6 2.6 2.6 4.4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 .2 -1.2 -.2 .5 .0 -.3 1.3 1.0 -.1 .5 -.1 -.5 .9 -.3 -.5 -.4 1.0 -.7 .4 -.1 -.2 .4 .5 .4 .8 .2 .8 .4 -1.1 -.7 -.8 -.1 .1 -.9 .0 .9 .4 1.3 2.4 .6 .6 .5 .7 -.7 -.5 -.4 -.4 .6 .7 1.4 -.1 .8 .9 -.1 .4 .1 .7 .2 .2 .4 3.0 -1.7 6.0 3.0 .9 -2.5 6.8 2.6 .0 .2 .3 4.1 6.6 -.6 .4 .8 3.2 8.8 4.0 6.9 2.5 1.5 4.9 3.5 1.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -.3 -.6 .5 .4 -.2 -.1 -.5 .0 -.2 .6 .3 -.4 .8 .2 -.2 .3 -.1 .1 -1.0 .7 -.4 -.6 .6 -.1 .6 .0 -.5 1.0 .5 -.7 -.4 -.1 -.5 .0 .8 -.8 -.7 .3 -.3 .6 .4 -.4 .0 .7 -.4 -.6 -.7 -.6 -.2 .7 -.6 -.3 .3 1.0 .0 -.9 .1 -.6 -.3 .5 .5 -7.5 3.4 .1 1.3 .9 -4.1 5.4 -3.1 3.9 -3.5 -4.7 2.4 1.2 3.3 -5.0 -5.2 -2.0 3.0 3.4 .8 -4.9 .1 .0 2.2 2005 2006 .4 .8 .5 -.3 -.3 .3 .0 .8 .5 -.4 .3 .8 -.1 .3 .2 .3 -1.1 -.3 1.4 -.5 .8 .4 4.1 4.9 1.6 3.8 .4 3.0 5.5 3.0 IP (2002=100) 1976 1977 1978 1979 62.9 66.6 70.6 75.1 63.8 67.7 70.7 75.4 63.8 68.7 71.8 75.7 64.2 69.3 73.0 74.5 64.5 69.8 73.2 75.3 64.5 70.3 73.7 75.3 64.9 70.3 73.6 75.3 65.3 70.7 73.9 74.2 65.3 70.7 74.2 74.2 65.3 70.9 74.7 74.4 66.1 70.9 75.3 74.1 66.8 71.6 75.9 74.3 63.5 67.6 71.1 75.4 64.4 69.8 73.3 75.0 65.2 70.6 73.9 74.6 66.1 71.1 75.3 74.3 64.8 69.8 73.4 74.8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 74.5 71.8 66.8 65.9 73.4 74.4 71.3 68.5 65.8 74.1 73.7 71.6 68.0 66.4 74.3 72.1 71.8 67.4 67.1 74.6 69.8 72.2 67.2 67.9 74.7 68.6 71.8 67.0 68.4 74.9 68.0 71.9 66.8 69.3 75.2 68.4 71.9 66.3 70.0 75.2 69.5 71.5 66.0 71.0 74.9 70.7 70.6 65.3 71.8 75.2 72.0 69.8 64.7 72.0 75.4 72.2 68.5 64.4 72.1 75.7 74.2 71.6 67.8 66.0 73.9 70.2 71.9 67.2 67.8 74.7 68.6 71.8 66.4 70.1 75.1 71.7 69.6 64.8 72.0 75.5 71.2 71.2 66.6 69.0 74.8 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 75.3 77.7 78.3 83.6 86.6 75.1 77.1 79.4 83.8 85.7 75.8 76.9 79.5 84.0 85.7 75.7 77.2 79.8 84.6 85.7 75.7 77.2 80.3 84.4 85.0 75.8 77.1 80.6 84.5 85.1 75.5 77.2 81.0 84.5 83.9 76.0 77.4 81.3 84.5 84.7 76.1 77.5 81.7 84.8 84.5 75.9 77.8 83.0 85.3 84.2 76.4 78.1 83.4 85.5 84.3 76.7 78.7 83.8 85.9 84.4 75.4 77.2 79.1 83.8 86.0 75.8 77.2 80.2 84.5 85.2 75.9 77.4 81.4 84.6 84.4 76.3 78.2 83.4 85.6 84.3 75.8 77.5 81.0 84.6 85.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 84.2 82.4 82.8 86.6 88.6 85.3 81.8 83.5 86.7 88.6 85.6 81.2 84.2 86.4 89.6 85.4 81.5 84.6 86.9 90.1 85.4 82.0 85.0 86.8 90.6 85.6 82.9 85.1 86.6 90.7 85.4 83.1 85.8 86.8 91.0 85.6 83.3 85.3 86.7 91.5 85.6 84.2 85.3 87.1 91.6 84.8 84.0 85.7 87.8 92.2 83.8 83.7 85.9 88.0 92.7 83.1 83.5 85.7 88.5 93.6 85.0 81.8 83.5 86.6 88.9 85.5 82.1 84.9 86.8 90.5 85.5 83.5 85.5 86.9 91.3 83.9 83.7 85.8 88.1 92.8 85.0 82.8 84.9 87.1 90.9 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 93.8 92.1 96.5 102.7 103.5 93.5 93.4 97.5 102.6 103.9 93.3 92.9 98.3 102.2 103.4 93.0 93.8 97.6 102.6 103.4 92.8 94.2 98.1 103.0 104.2 93.0 95.0 98.5 101.9 103.5 92.3 94.9 98.6 101.0 103.5 93.1 95.3 99.9 103.4 104.2 93.7 95.7 100.5 102.7 103.6 93.2 95.3 101.1 103.4 105.1 93.1 96.1 102.0 103.3 105.5 93.2 96.7 102.2 103.5 106.0 93.5 92.8 97.5 102.5 103.6 92.9 94.3 98.1 102.5 103.7 93.0 95.3 99.7 102.4 103.8 93.2 96.0 101.8 103.4 105.5 93.2 94.6 99.2 102.7 104.1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 105.6 102.1 98.6 100.3 100.5 105.5 101.6 98.6 100.2 101.1 105.8 101.2 99.4 100.3 100.9 106.2 101.1 99.4 99.4 101.6 105.7 100.5 100.0 99.3 102.2 105.8 100.0 101.0 99.8 101.5 105.4 99.9 100.6 99.7 102.4 104.5 99.3 100.8 99.4 102.9 104.9 98.9 100.9 100.2 102.6 104.3 98.2 100.3 100.0 103.3 103.7 97.9 100.5 100.9 103.3 102.8 98.0 99.9 100.7 103.9 105.7 101.6 98.8 100.3 100.8 105.9 100.5 100.2 99.5 101.8 104.9 99.4 100.8 99.8 102.6 103.6 98.0 100.2 100.5 103.5 105.0 99.9 100.0 100.0 102.2 2005 2006 104.3 107.9 104.8 107.5 104.5 107.8 104.5 108.7 105.0 108.3 105.3 109.2 105.3 109.5 105.5 109.8 104.3 109.4 105.8 108.9 106.6 107.0 104.5 107.7 104.9 108.7 105.0 109.6 106.5 105.2 Year N OTE Estimates from August 2006 through October 2006 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 3. Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes. 27 Table 9B C APACITY AND U TILIZATION : Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries2 Seasonally adjusted Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Capacity (percent of 2002 output) 1976 1977 1978 1979 81.7 83.4 85.7 88.0 81.8 83.6 85.9 88.2 81.9 83.8 86.1 88.3 82.1 84.0 86.3 88.5 82.2 84.1 86.5 88.7 82.3 84.3 86.7 88.8 82.5 84.5 86.9 89.0 82.6 84.7 87.1 89.2 82.8 84.9 87.2 89.3 82.9 85.1 87.4 89.5 83.1 85.3 87.6 89.7 83.3 85.5 87.8 89.8 81.8 83.6 85.9 88.2 82.2 84.1 86.5 88.7 82.6 84.7 87.1 89.2 83.1 85.3 87.6 89.7 82.4 84.4 86.8 88.9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 90.0 92.1 93.9 94.5 94.3 90.2 92.3 94.0 94.5 94.3 90.3 92.5 94.1 94.5 94.4 90.5 92.6 94.2 94.4 94.5 90.7 92.8 94.3 94.4 94.6 90.8 93.0 94.3 94.3 94.7 91.0 93.1 94.4 94.3 94.8 91.2 93.3 94.5 94.3 95.0 91.4 93.4 94.5 94.2 95.1 91.6 93.5 94.5 94.2 95.3 91.8 93.6 94.5 94.2 95.4 91.9 93.8 94.5 94.3 95.6 90.2 92.3 94.0 94.5 94.3 90.7 92.8 94.3 94.4 94.6 91.2 93.2 94.5 94.3 95.0 91.7 93.6 94.5 94.2 95.5 90.9 93.0 94.3 94.3 94.8 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 95.8 97.8 99.0 100.3 100.9 96.0 97.9 99.2 100.3 101.0 96.2 98.0 99.3 100.3 101.2 96.4 98.1 99.5 100.3 101.3 96.6 98.2 99.6 100.4 101.5 96.8 98.3 99.7 100.4 101.6 97.0 98.4 99.8 100.4 101.8 97.1 98.5 99.9 100.4 102.0 97.3 98.6 100.0 100.5 102.2 97.4 98.7 100.1 100.6 102.4 97.6 98.8 100.2 100.7 102.5 97.7 98.9 100.2 100.8 102.7 96.0 97.9 99.2 100.3 101.0 96.6 98.2 99.6 100.4 101.5 97.1 98.5 99.9 100.5 102.0 97.6 98.8 100.2 100.7 102.5 96.8 98.3 99.7 100.4 101.8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 102.9 104.8 106.3 107.7 109.0 103.1 104.9 106.4 107.8 109.1 103.2 105.1 106.5 107.9 109.3 103.4 105.2 106.6 108.0 109.4 103.6 105.4 106.8 108.2 109.5 103.7 105.5 106.9 108.3 109.7 103.9 105.6 107.0 108.4 109.9 104.0 105.8 107.1 108.5 110.0 104.2 105.9 107.2 108.6 110.2 104.3 106.0 107.3 108.7 110.4 104.5 106.1 107.5 108.8 110.6 104.6 106.2 107.6 108.9 110.8 103.1 104.9 106.4 107.8 109.2 103.6 105.4 106.8 108.2 109.5 104.0 105.8 107.1 108.5 110.0 104.5 106.1 107.5 108.8 110.6 103.8 105.5 106.9 108.3 109.8 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 111.0 114.0 117.4 122.9 127.7 111.3 114.3 117.8 123.4 128.0 111.5 114.5 118.2 123.9 128.4 111.8 114.8 118.6 124.3 128.7 112.0 115.0 119.1 124.7 129.0 112.3 115.3 119.5 125.1 129.3 112.5 115.5 120.0 125.5 129.7 112.8 115.8 120.5 125.9 130.0 113.0 116.1 121.0 126.3 130.3 113.3 116.4 121.5 126.7 130.5 113.5 116.7 122.0 127.0 130.8 113.8 117.1 122.5 127.4 131.1 111.3 114.3 117.8 123.4 128.0 112.0 115.0 119.1 124.7 129.0 112.8 115.8 120.5 125.9 130.0 113.5 116.7 122.0 127.0 130.8 112.4 115.5 119.8 125.3 129.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 131.4 133.8 134.5 133.8 132.8 131.6 133.9 134.5 133.7 132.7 131.9 134.0 134.5 133.6 132.7 132.1 134.2 134.5 133.4 132.7 132.3 134.2 134.5 133.3 132.7 132.6 134.3 134.4 133.2 132.7 132.8 134.4 134.3 133.1 132.6 133.0 134.4 134.3 133.1 132.6 133.2 134.5 134.2 133.0 132.6 133.3 134.5 134.1 132.9 132.6 133.5 134.5 134.0 132.9 132.6 133.7 134.5 133.9 132.8 132.6 131.6 133.9 134.5 133.7 132.8 132.3 134.2 134.5 133.3 132.7 133.0 134.4 134.3 133.1 132.6 133.5 134.5 134.0 132.9 132.6 132.6 134.3 134.3 133.2 132.7 2005 2006 132.6 133.7 132.6 133.9 132.7 134.0 132.7 134.2 132.8 134.3 132.8 134.5 132.9 134.7 133.0 134.8 133.1 135.0 133.3 135.1 133.4 133.6 132.6 133.9 132.8 134.3 133.0 134.8 133.4 133.0 Utilization (percent) 1976 1977 1978 1979 77.1 79.8 82.4 85.4 78.0 80.9 82.3 85.5 77.9 82.0 83.4 85.7 78.3 82.6 84.6 84.1 78.5 83.0 84.6 84.9 78.3 83.3 85.1 84.8 78.7 83.2 84.7 84.6 79.0 83.4 84.9 83.2 78.9 83.3 85.0 83.1 78.7 83.3 85.4 83.2 79.6 83.1 85.9 82.7 80.2 83.8 86.4 82.7 77.6 80.9 82.7 85.5 78.4 83.0 84.8 84.6 78.9 83.3 84.9 83.6 79.5 83.4 85.9 82.8 78.6 82.6 84.6 84.1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 82.8 78.0 71.2 69.7 77.8 82.5 77.3 72.9 69.6 78.5 81.6 77.4 72.2 70.3 78.7 79.7 77.5 71.6 71.1 79.0 77.0 77.8 71.3 72.0 79.0 75.6 77.3 71.1 72.5 79.1 74.7 77.3 70.8 73.5 79.3 75.0 77.1 70.2 74.2 79.2 76.1 76.5 69.9 75.4 78.8 77.3 75.5 69.0 76.2 79.0 78.5 74.5 68.5 76.4 79.0 78.5 73.1 68.1 76.5 79.2 82.3 77.5 72.1 69.9 78.4 77.4 77.5 71.3 71.9 79.0 75.2 77.0 70.3 74.4 79.1 78.1 74.4 68.5 76.4 79.1 78.3 76.6 70.6 73.1 78.9 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 78.6 79.4 79.1 83.4 85.9 78.3 78.8 80.1 83.5 84.9 78.8 78.4 80.0 83.7 84.7 78.5 78.7 80.2 84.3 84.6 78.4 78.7 80.7 84.1 83.7 78.3 78.4 80.8 84.2 83.7 77.9 78.5 81.2 84.1 82.4 78.2 78.6 81.4 84.2 83.0 78.2 78.7 81.7 84.4 82.7 77.9 78.8 82.9 84.8 82.2 78.3 79.0 83.3 85.0 82.2 78.5 79.6 83.6 85.3 82.2 78.6 78.9 79.7 83.5 85.2 78.4 78.6 80.6 84.2 84.0 78.1 78.6 81.4 84.2 82.7 78.2 79.1 83.2 85.0 82.2 78.3 78.8 81.2 84.3 83.5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 81.8 78.7 77.9 80.4 81.2 82.8 77.9 78.4 80.4 81.2 82.9 77.2 79.0 80.1 82.0 82.6 77.4 79.3 80.4 82.4 82.5 77.8 79.6 80.2 82.7 82.5 78.6 79.7 80.0 82.7 82.2 78.7 80.2 80.1 82.8 82.3 78.7 79.7 79.9 83.1 82.1 79.5 79.6 80.2 83.1 81.3 79.3 79.8 80.7 83.5 80.2 78.9 80.0 80.9 83.8 79.5 78.6 79.7 81.2 84.5 82.5 78.0 78.4 80.3 81.5 82.5 77.9 79.5 80.2 82.6 82.2 79.0 79.8 80.1 83.0 80.3 78.9 79.8 81.0 83.9 81.9 78.4 79.4 80.4 82.8 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 84.4 80.8 82.2 83.5 81.0 84.0 81.7 82.8 83.1 81.2 83.7 81.1 83.2 82.5 80.6 83.2 81.7 82.3 82.6 80.3 82.9 81.9 82.4 82.6 80.7 82.9 82.4 82.4 81.4 80.0 82.0 82.2 82.1 80.5 79.8 82.6 82.3 82.9 82.1 80.2 82.9 82.4 83.1 81.3 79.5 82.3 81.9 83.2 81.6 80.5 82.0 82.3 83.6 81.3 80.7 81.9 82.6 83.5 81.2 80.8 84.0 81.2 82.7 83.1 80.9 83.0 82.0 82.4 82.2 80.3 82.5 82.3 82.7 81.3 79.8 82.1 82.3 83.4 81.4 80.7 82.9 81.9 82.8 82.0 80.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 80.4 76.3 73.3 75.0 75.7 80.2 75.8 73.3 74.9 76.2 80.3 75.5 73.9 75.1 76.0 80.4 75.4 73.9 74.5 76.6 79.9 74.9 74.4 74.4 77.1 79.8 74.5 75.2 74.9 76.5 79.3 74.4 74.8 74.9 77.2 78.6 73.8 75.1 74.7 77.6 78.8 73.5 75.2 75.3 77.3 78.2 73.0 74.8 75.2 77.9 77.7 72.8 75.0 76.0 77.9 76.9 72.9 74.6 75.8 78.3 80.3 75.9 73.5 75.0 76.0 80.0 74.9 74.5 74.6 76.7 78.9 73.9 75.0 75.0 77.4 77.6 72.9 74.8 75.7 78.1 79.2 74.4 74.5 75.1 77.0 2005 2006 78.7 80.7 79.0 80.3 78.8 80.5 78.7 81.0 79.1 80.6 79.3 81.2 79.2 81.3 79.3 81.4 78.4 81.1 79.4 80.6 79.9 80.1 78.8 80.5 79.0 80.9 79.0 81.3 79.8 79.2 N OTE Estimates from August 2006 through October 2006 are subject to further revision in the upcoming monthly releases. 1. See footnote 2 to table 3. 2. High technology industries include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 28 Table 10 A NNUAL P ROPORTIONS IN I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION , M ARKET AND I NDUSTRY G ROUP S UMMARY Item 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 58.1 28.1 7.9 3.7 .4 1.4 2.4 57.6 28.2 8.0 3.9 .4 1.4 2.4 57.6 28.6 7.9 3.7 .4 1.4 2.4 59.1 30.1 8.1 4.0 .4 1.4 2.3 58.9 31.1 8.9 4.7 .4 1.4 2.4 58.3 31.1 8.7 4.6 .4 1.4 2.3 57.3 30.4 8.0 4.0 .4 1.3 2.2 57.5 30.3 7.5 3.6 .4 1.3 2.2 20.2 16.9 9.2 1.5 3.8 1.9 3.2 20.2 16.7 9.2 1.4 3.8 1.9 3.5 20.7 16.9 9.4 1.2 3.9 1.9 3.7 22.0 18.2 10.0 1.1 4.5 2.0 3.8 22.2 18.3 9.8 .9 5.0 2.0 3.9 22.4 18.1 9.8 .8 5.0 1.9 4.3 22.5 17.4 9.5 .7 4.9 1.9 5.1 22.8 17.0 9.3 .6 4.8 1.8 5.8 Business equipment Transit Information processing Industrial and other Defense and space equipment 12.2 2.5 4.0 5.8 1.9 11.8 2.3 4.0 5.5 1.8 11.6 2.0 4.0 5.6 1.5 11.1 2.0 3.7 5.4 1.8 10.1 1.8 3.0 5.3 1.8 9.6 1.6 2.9 5.1 1.8 9.4 1.6 2.8 4.9 1.7 9.4 1.7 2.7 4.9 1.7 Construction supplies Business supplies 4.3 11.2 4.3 11.1 4.3 11.2 4.3 11.2 4.3 11.2 4.3 11.1 4.3 11.0 4.4 11.1 41.9 33.3 21.4 4.2 8.1 9.1 11.9 1.0 2.8 4.6 8.6 42.4 33.1 21.4 4.4 8.1 9.0 11.7 1.0 2.9 4.5 9.3 42.4 32.3 20.9 4.1 8.1 8.6 11.4 .9 2.8 4.3 10.1 40.9 30.9 19.6 3.8 7.3 8.4 11.3 .8 2.8 4.2 10.1 41.1 30.7 19.1 4.0 6.7 8.4 11.6 .8 2.7 4.5 10.4 41.7 30.2 18.7 3.8 6.5 8.3 11.5 .8 2.5 4.7 11.5 42.7 30.2 18.6 3.6 6.4 8.6 11.6 .7 2.4 5.2 12.5 42.5 29.8 18.3 3.4 6.2 8.7 11.5 .6 2.3 5.3 12.7 321 327 331 332 333 334 86.4 81.8 47.1 1.5 2.3 2.9 6.1 6.2 10.2 85.8 81.0 46.6 1.6 2.3 2.8 6.0 5.8 10.3 84.5 79.7 45.5 1.5 2.2 2.5 6.1 6.0 10.3 84.1 79.2 44.2 1.4 2.3 2.3 5.9 5.6 9.1 83.9 79.0 43.4 1.5 2.3 2.3 5.7 5.3 8.0 82.5 77.9 42.3 1.6 2.2 2.4 5.6 5.0 7.9 81.5 77.0 41.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 5.4 4.9 7.8 80.9 76.6 40.2 1.5 2.3 2.8 5.4 4.9 7.4 335 3361–3 2.6 6.6 2.5 7.0 2.5 6.6 2.4 6.5 2.2 7.5 2.0 7.3 2.0 6.5 1.9 5.9 3364–9 337 339 4.1 1.7 2.8 3.8 1.7 2.8 3.3 1.7 2.9 3.8 1.7 3.1 3.6 1.8 3.3 3.3 1.7 3.3 3.1 1.6 3.1 3.3 1.6 3.2 311,2 313,4 315,6 322 323 324 325 326 34.7 10.6 1.6 1.6 3.2 2.6 1.5 9.9 3.7 34.4 10.4 1.5 1.4 3.2 2.6 1.7 9.6 3.8 34.2 10.7 1.4 1.3 3.2 2.6 1.9 9.4 3.7 35.0 11.4 1.4 1.2 3.1 2.6 1.8 9.8 3.7 35.6 11.4 1.4 1.0 3.1 2.4 1.8 10.8 3.8 35.6 11.5 1.3 .9 2.9 2.3 2.2 10.9 3.7 36.0 11.1 1.2 .7 2.8 2.1 3.3 11.4 3.5 36.4 10.8 1.1 .7 2.6 2.0 4.2 11.5 3.4 1133,5111 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 21 2211,2 2211 2212 4.8 8.7 7.6 1.2 5.5 8.7 7.4 1.2 6.5 9.0 7.6 1.4 6.4 9.5 8.1 1.4 6.4 9.7 8.3 1.4 7.5 9.9 8.3 1.6 8.7 9.8 8.1 1.7 9.2 9.9 8.1 1.7 Total IP M ARKET G ROUPS Final products and nonindustrial supplies Consumer goods Durable Automotive products Home electronics Appliances, furniture, carpeting Miscellaneous goods Nondurable Non-energy Foods and tobacco Clothing Chemical products Paper products Energy Materials Non-energy Durable Consumer parts Equipment parts Other Nondurable Textile Paper Chemical Energy I NDUSTRY G ROUPS Manufacturing Manufacturing (NAICS) Durable manufacturing Wood products Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer and electronic products Electrical equip., appliances, and components Motor vehicles and parts Aerospace and other miscellaneous transportation equipment Furniture and related products Miscellaneous Nondurable manufacturing Food, beverage, and tobacco products Textile and product mills Apparel and leather Paper Printing and support Petroleum and coal products Chemical Plastics and rubber products Other manufacturing (non-NAICS) Mining Utilities Electric Natural gas NOTE. The IP proportion data are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall IP change between the reference year and the following year. For example, a 1 percent increase in durable goods manufacturing between 2005 and 2006 would account for a 0.402 percent increase in total IP. 29 Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since 1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month: E XPLANATORY N OTE The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release, which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and the electric and gas utilities industries. More detailed descriptions of industrial production and capacity utilization are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site. Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes containing historical data and the data published in this release also are available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Publications Services, 202-452-3245. A Im A Im−1 s P P Im pm Im pm−1 P P = × Im−1 pm−1 Im−1 pm The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is about 8 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month, then this gain would boost growth in total IP by 8/10 percentage point (0.08 x 10% = 0.8%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/ releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa). I NDUSTRIAL P RODUCTION Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the reference period for the index is 2002. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries-logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing-that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been constructed from 300 individual series based on the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining, and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures, including details regarding series classification, relative importance weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html). Changes in output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of the statistical tables, see below. Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the 15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output for a given month, about 70 percent of the source data (in value-added terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about 85 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published, 96 percent in the third month, and 97 percent in the fourth month. Data availability by data type is summarized in the table below: Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window (Percent of value added in 2005) Month of estimate Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output (calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the high-technology grouping and include computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of output are based on production-worker hours by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of Energy. Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Physical product 27 42 54 54 Production-worker hours 43 43 43 43 IP data received 70 84 96 97 IP data estimated 30 16 4 3 The physical product group includes series based on either monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical product data (25 percent out of total of 52 percent). Of the 25 percent, about two-thirds (17 percent of total IP) include series that are derived from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of the first month of a quarter. About 3 percent of the source data for monthly IP—all physical product measures—are available too late for direct inclusion in the current index and are incorporated at the time of an annual historical revision. Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the current seasonal factors were estimated with data through April 2006; for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June 2005. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or 30 the business cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted indexes of the individual series. be consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC (currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in the SPC. Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent during the 1987–2005 period. The average revision to the percent change in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was 0.21 percentage point during the 1987–2005 period. In most cases (about 86 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate. Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the rounded indexes shown in the release. Perspective. Over the 1972–2005 period, the average total industry utilization rate was 81.0 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory operating rate was 79.8 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month. C APACITY U TILIZATION Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. R EFERENCES AND R ELEASE DATES References. The annual revision published in November 2005 is described in an article published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 92, pp. A39–A58. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92. The Federal Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital stock doc-latest.pdf. Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 87 detailed industries (69 in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level. Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing—that have traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries. Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990, June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997, February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002, April 2003, Winter 2004, Winter 2005). Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources (primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper, industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 24 percent of total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries account for a bit less than 72 percent of total industry capacity. In the absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap notes.html). Release Schedule At 9:15 a.m. on 2006: January 17, February 15, March 17, April 14, May 16, June 15, July 17, August 16, September 15, October 17, November 16, and December 15. 2007: January 17, February 15, March 16, April 17, May 16, June 15, July 17, August 15, September 14, October 16, November 16, and December 14. Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent monthly production index by the related capacity index. Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates 31