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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release
G.17 (419)

For release at 9:15 a.m. (EDT)
August 15, 2003

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in July after having changed little in the previous two months.
Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent after gains in May and June. The output at utilities climbed 3.9 percent, as the
weather turned warm in July after an unusually cool June. Production in mining fell 0.4 percent.

(over)

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY
Seasonally adjusted
1997=100

Percent change

Industrial production

2003
Apr.r

Mayr

Juner

Julyp

Total index
Previous estimates

109.5
109.5

109.5
109.6

109.5
109.7

110.0

Major market groups
Final Products
Consumer goods
Business equipment
Nonindustrial supplies
Construction
Materials

106.3
106.8
104.8
113.0
101.0
111.4

106.3
106.5
105.3
113.7
101.6
111.3

106.5
106.7
105.7
113.3
101.6
111.1

Major industry groups
Manufacturing (see note below)
Previous estimates
Mining
Utilities

110.1
110.2
93.0
112.1

110.3
110.3
92.6
111.1

110.6
110.8
93.8
107.4

Capacity utilization

Average
1972–2002

1982
low

1988–89
high

Mayr

Juner

Julyp

July ’02 to
July ’03

-.5
-.5

.1
.1

.0
.1

.5

-1.4

107.0
107.2
106.1
113.7
101.8
111.6

-.5
-.4
-.7
-.7
-.4
-.6

.0
-.2
.4
.6
.6
-.2

.2
.1
.4
-.4
.0
-.1

.5
.5
.4
.4
.2
.4

-.8
-1.2
-1.1
-1.6
-2.6
-1.9

110.8

-.7
-.6
.2
.4

.2
.1
-.4
-.9

.3
.4
1.2
-3.3

.2

-1.4

-.4
3.9

-1.0
-1.9

93.4
111.5

2003
Apr.r

Percent of capacity
2002
2003
July
Apr.r

Mayr

Juner

Julyp

Capacity
growth
July ’02 to
July ’03

Total industry
Previous estimates

81.3

70.8

85.1

76.4

74.3
74.4

74.3
74.3

74.2
74.3

74.5

1.1

Manufacturing (see note below)
Previous estimates
Mining
Utilities

80.2

68.6

85.6

74.3

85.6
92.6

85.7
89.6

72.7
72.8
84.9
80.4

.7

78.6
77.2

72.6
72.6
83.9
83.4

72.8

86.9
86.7

72.5
72.5
84.2
84.5

84.6
83.2

.3
5.7

86.4
82.2
78.5

77.2
67.9
71.3

88.6
86.2
83.1

84.4
78.6
71.9

82.2
76.5
70.1

82.0
76.5
70.1

82.7
75.9
70.4

82.5
76.4
70.5

-.2
1.4
.8

Stage-of-process groups
Crude
Primary and semifinished
Finished

r Revised. p Preliminary.
NOTE– The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the industrial sector, which the Federal Reserve defines as manufacturing,
mining, and electric and gas utilities. Manufacturing comprises those industries included in the North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS,
definition of manufacturing plus the logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing industries that have traditionally been considered
manufacturing and included in the industrial sector.

At 110.0 percent of its 1997 average, industrial production was 1.4 percent lower than its level in July 2002.
Capacity utilization for total industry rose 0.3 percentage point, to 74.5 percent, a rate 6.8 percentage points below its
1972–2002 average.
Market Groups
The output of consumer goods rose 0.5 percent in July. Consumer durables production, driven by a
3.5 percent increase in automotive products, rose 2.3 percent. The production of consumer nondurables edged down
0.1 percent. A large rise in consumer energy products—in particular, utility sales to residences—balanced broad-based
decreases in non-energy consumer nondurables. The output of clothing fell for another month, and drops in output for
chemical products and for paper products reversed most of their June gains.
The production of business equipment rose 0.4 percent for a third consecutive month. Increases in the
output of farm equipment, construction machinery, and office furniture contributed to a rise in the index for industrial and
other equipment. The production of information processing equipment edged up. A rise in the assemblies of light trucks
offset decreases in the output of other business vehicles and commercial aircraft, movements that left the production of
transit equipment little changed. Defense and space equipment rose 1.1 percent and is 6.5 percent above year-ago levels.
Business supplies reversed a small decline in June, and construction supplies edged up 0.2 percent. Materials production
rose 0.4 percent after five months of decline. Energy materials picked up as a result of increased electricity generation.
Gains in the output of motor vehicle parts and semiconductors boosted the output of durable goods materials, while
weakness in textile materials reduced the output of nondurable goods materials.
Industry Groups
Production in manufacturing increased 0.2 percent, as an increase for durables was mostly offset by declines
at nondurable and other (non-NAICS) manufacturers. Output in durable manufacturing rose 0.8 percent in July, after
gains in May and June. Production indexes increased nearly 1 percent or more for wood products, primary metals,
computer and electronic products, motor vehicles and parts, and furniture. The output of nondurable manufacturers
declined 0.4 percent. The output of chemicals and food declined noticeably. Capacity utilization in manufacturing edged
up to 72.8 percent.
In mining, declines in natural gas and crude oil extraction led to a 0.4 percent decrease in production.
Capacity utilization in mining edged down to 84.6 percent. With the sharp rise in output, the operating rate at utilities
rose to 83.2 percent.
Capacity utilization for industries in the crude stage of processing fell 0.2 percentage point, to 82.5 percent.
Utilization for industries in the primary and semifinished stage rose 0.5 percentage point, to 76.4 percent. Utilization for
industries in the finished goods stage edged up 0.1 percentage point, to 70.5 percent.
Tables
1. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; percent change
2. Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; percent change
3. Motor Vehicle Assemblies
4. Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary; indexes
5. Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail; indexes
6. Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production
7. Capacity Utilization
8. Industrial Capacity
9. Gross Value of Products and Nonindustrial Supplies
10. Gross-Value-Weighted Industrial Production: Stage-of-Process Groups
11. Electric Power Use
12. Historical Statistics: Total Industry
13. Historical Statistics: Manufacturing
14. Historical Statistics: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
15. Historical Statistics: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
Further detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/).
2

Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
In the fall of 2003, the Federal Reserve Board will publish a revision to the index of industrial
production (IP), the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization, and the data on industrial use of
electric power. The updated measures will reflect the incorporation of newly available, more comprehensive
source data typical of annual revisions. The updating of source data for IP in the 2003 annual revision will
include annual data from the Census Bureau’s 2001 Annual Survey of Manufactures and from selected
editions of its 2001 and 2002 Current Industrial Reports. Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey
regarding metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2001 and 2002 will also be introduced. The
updating will include revisions to the monthly indicator for each industry (either physical product data,
production-worker hours, or electric power usage) and revisions to seasonal factors.
Capacity and capacity utilization will be revised to incorporate preliminary data from the 2002
Survey of Plant Capacity of the Bureau of the Census, which covers manufacturing, along with other new
data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Energy, and other organizations. The
statistics on the industrial use of electric power will incorporate additional information received from
utilities for the past few years and will include some data from the 2001 Annual Survey of Manufactures.
Once the revision is published, it will be made available on the Board’s web site,
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17. The revised data will also be available through the web site of the
Department of Commerce. Further information on these revisions is available from the Board’s Industrial
Output Section (telephone 202-452-3197).

3

1. Industrial production, capacity, and utilization
200
185

Ratio scale, 1997 output = 100
Total
Manufacturing

200
185

160

160

135

135

Capacity
110

110

85

85
Production

Detail: 2000 to present

122

60

118

60

Production
114

110

2000

35

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

2001

2002

1995

2003

106

2000

Percent of capacity

100
95

35

100
95

Utilization
85

85

75

75

65

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

65

Notes: The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
See note on cover page.

4

2. Industrial production and capacity utilization
Consumer goods

Equipment

Ratio scale, 1997=100

Ratio scale, 1997=100

130

130

130

130

125

125

125

125

120

120

115

115

115

110

110

110

110

105

105

105

100

100

100

95

95

95

90

90

130

130

130

130

125

125

125

125

120

120

120

115

115

110

110

105

105

100

100

100

100

95

95

95

95

90

90

120
115

Durable

Nondurable

100
95
90

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Nonindustrial supplies

Ratio scale, 1997=100

120
Other business

115
110
105

90

Construction

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Capacity utilization

85
80

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

105

90

115
110
105

Energy

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

90

Percent of capacity

90

85

120

Ratio scale, 1997=100

Non-energy

Capacity utilization
90

Primary and
semifinished
processing

Defense and Space

Industrial materials

Percent of capacity

90

Business

90

85

85
Finished processing

80

80

75

75

75

70

75

80

70

70

65

65

Excluding utilities
70

65

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

5

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

65

3. Industrial production and capacity utilization, high-technology industries
Industrial production

Ratio scale, 1997 = 100

125
115

125
115

Excluding
high-technology
industries

95

95

75

75
Total IP

55

35

55

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

Industrial production

1995

2000

35

Percent change from year earlier
15

15
Total IP

10

10

5

5

0

0
Excluding the
contribution
of high-technology
industries

-5
-10
-15

1970

1975

Industrial production

1980

1990

600
525
450
Semiconductors

2000

95

-10
-15

Percent of capacity

100

375

300

1995

Capacity utilization

Ratio scale, 1997 = 100

600
525
450
375

1985

-5

100
95

Excluding
high-technology
industries

85

85

75

300

75

Computers
225

225

150

150
Communications eq.

65

65
High-technology industries

75

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

75

55

1990

1995

2000

55

Notes: High-technology industries are defined as semiconductors and related electronic components (NAICS 334412-9),
computers (NAICS 3341),and communications equipment (NAICS 3342).
The shaded areas are periods of business recession as defined by the NBER.

6

Table 1

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
Fourth quarter to
fourth quarter

Item
It

2002
proportion1

Monthly rate

2001

2002

100.00

2.7

-5.7

1.4

3.4

-3.4

.3

-3.5

-.5

.1

.0

.5

-1.4

59.81
30.46
7.52
4.29
.34
1.29
1.60
22.93
18.96
10.27
1.04
4.79
2.29
3.98

3.2
1.1
-2.0
-4.8
9.2
-1.0
.6
2.2
1.1
-.4
-6.2
6.5
1.0
7.6

-5.4
-2.1
-3.0
1.7
-13.5
-4.6
-9.5
-1.8
-1.0
-2.2
-12.6
4.8
-.3
-5.2

.5
1.4
6.0
9.6
-1.8
1.7
2.2
.0
-1.6
-.9
-4.6
-3.1
-.4
8.1

2.1
2.0
6.7
16.9
-3.7
-10.4
-2.5
.5
.1
-3.3
-3.7
5.0
7.5
2.5

-3.6
-3.4
-2.4
-6.2
12.6
4.6
-.1
-3.7
-4.6
-5.4
-10.5
-5.2
3.2
.8

.7
1.6
1.3
3.5
23.4
-3.8
-4.5
1.7
.2
-2.6
-7.0
6.3
2.1
9.2

-2.7
-3.4
-6.5
-10.3
10.8
5.2
-8.3
-2.3
-.4
-1.0
-19.2
4.5
2.7
-10.8

-.5
-.4
-.9
-1.2
1.8
.3
-1.3
-.3
-.4
-.2
-2.8
.2
-.9
.1

.2
-.2
-.3
-1.2
-1.5
1.9
.5
-.2
-.1
.0
-.5
-.6
.3
-.5

.0
.1
1.0
2.0
1.8
-1.3
-.2
-.1
.5
.2
-2.4
1.6
1.1
-3.2

.5
.5
2.3
3.5
4.2
1.5
-.7
-.1
-.9
-.6
-1.2
-1.4
-1.0
3.7

-1.0
-1.2
.3
.6
18.0
1.2
-4.7
-1.7
-2.0
-3.1
-13.3
.6
3.0
-.2

9.65
1.74
3.05
4.86
2.20

7.9
-8.6
20.0
6.3
-.4

-14.3
-12.1
-13.4
-15.7
.0

-3.9
-15.6
-1.6
-.7
2.3

-1.8
-8.2
-4.4
2.3
4.5

-6.6
-16.3
-.6
-6.7
1.9

.3
-10.7
9.8
-1.4
10.1

-1.5
-5.5
2.7
-2.7
4.2

-.7
.1
-.9
-.8
-.5

.4
-.4
.9
.4
1.3

.4
-.1
-.1
1.0
.5

.4
.0
.5
.4
1.1

-1.1
-8.4
3.3
-1.2
6.5

6.84
10.30

.7
6.3

-6.0
-5.1

.6
2.2

1.0
6.1

-4.3
-2.0

-6.1
1.7

-1.6
-4.5

-.4
-1.0

.6
.6

.0
-.6

.2
.6

-2.6
-.9

40.19
30.49
18.56
4.21
5.94
8.41
11.93
.80
3.00
4.18
9.71

2.0
2.3
5.6
-6.3
23.4
-3.5
-3.5
-9.6
-3.8
-4.1
1.0

-6.0
-6.9
-7.7
-3.7
-10.2
-7.2
-5.4
-12.6
-5.6
-5.4
-3.4

2.8
2.9
3.8
7.9
3.6
1.9
1.3
.1
3.0
1.2
2.6

5.3
5.4
5.7
8.5
8.0
2.6
4.8
2.2
10.1
2.3
5.0

-3.0
-3.2
-1.6
-.9
-.5
-2.9
-5.6
-10.2
1.3
-11.2
-2.4

-.4
-1.9
-2.0
-.8
2.1
-5.4
-1.7
-12.5
-9.0
4.8
4.4

-4.7
-4.2
-4.6
-7.5
3.6
-8.6
-3.7
-15.7
-4.0
-5.3
-5.9

-.6
-.8
-.8
-.4
.0
-1.5
-.8
-2.1
-2.1
.0
.1

-.2
.0
.3
-.9
1.1
.4
-.5
-2.1
1.1
-2.2
-.6

-.1
.0
.2
.6
.3
-.2
-.3
-1.3
-.7
-.7
-.3

.4
.2
.5
1.5
.4
.1
-.4
-2.4
-.1
.2
1.3

-1.9
-2.1
-1.1
-1.3
3.0
-3.9
-3.6
-14.5
-2.9
-4.7
-1.3

321
327
331
332
333
334

84.62
79.31
43.41
1.43
2.50
2.45
6.07
5.28
8.09

2.5
2.6
5.4
-6.7
-.2
-9.6
.5
4.8
30.7

-6.1
-6.2
-8.2
-3.1
.1
-11.6
-7.8
-17.8
-9.6

1.0
1.2
1.9
-1.1
2.6
3.6
1.1
-.8
4.0

3.0
2.9
3.8
1.6
5.5
1.5
1.4
.3
5.5

-3.7
-3.9
-2.8
-13.4
1.8
.4
-2.2
-8.7
3.4

-.6
-.9
-.6
-6.2
-2.0
-9.4
-7.3
2.6
6.2

-2.5
-2.9
-3.2
-2.6
.6
-18.3
-5.9
3.5
7.0

-.7
-.7
-.6
-.2
.4
-1.9
-.4
-.3
.1

.2
.2
.3
.0
.8
-.8
.0
.9
1.3

.3
.2
.4
.8
-.9
1.2
-.3
.9
.2

.2
.3
.8
1.7
.0
.9
.1
-.2
1.3

-1.4
-1.6
-.4
-3.7
.7
-4.9
-4.2
.2
6.6

335
3361–3

2.39
7.12

2.7
-8.4

-10.9
-1.2

-1.9
10.9

-2.5
18.1

-3.4
-5.6

-4.7
1.6

-3.2
-11.9

-1.4
-1.3

1.6
-1.1

.0
1.7

-.7
2.9

-3.7
-.9

3364–9
337
339

3.29
1.69
3.10

-4.9
.7
3.8

-5.0
-8.9
-5.7

-10.7
-1.9
1.8

-7.5
-2.1
-.8

-3.5
-4.0
-2.6

3.1
-7.1
-.6

2.4
-4.3
-8.4

.2
-.4
-1.6

.7
.7
-.1

.0
-.8
.3

.1
2.2
-.4

1.0
-2.3
-3.7

311,2
313,4
315,6
322
323
324
325
326

35.90
11.65
1.29
1.12
3.14
2.67
1.92
10.24
3.87

-1.2
-.4
-6.3
-5.9
-4.0
-.8
-.5
.4
-1.9

-3.4
-1.8
-12.4
-12.9
-5.7
-5.6
-.3
-1.1
-5.7

.2
-.8
-.3
-4.5
2.9
3.0
1.3
-1.0
2.7

1.8
-2.8
-2.0
-3.4
6.4
14.3
-4.1
4.3
2.8

-5.3
-5.2
-7.7
-10.0
.6
-.2
2.0
-8.4
-6.4

-1.3
-2.1
-10.2
-6.9
-9.2
-4.8
-.8
5.1
-1.2

-2.6
-1.0
-9.9
-18.8
.0
-9.5
1.8
-.6
-4.4

-.8
-.3
-2.3
-2.8
-1.7
-1.6
-1.4
-.1
-2.0

.1
.1
-1.1
-.5
1.0
1.0
1.6
-1.0
1.2

.0
.2
-1.0
-2.3
-.2
-.2
-1.4
.6
-.5

-.4
-.6
-1.3
-1.0
-.4
-.3
1.2
-.6
.0

-3.0
-2.9
-10.2
-12.9
-2.0
-3.3
.8
-2.1
-3.1

1133,5111

5.32

.4

-3.9

-1.8

5.3

.1

3.8

2.8

-.8

.2

.9

-1.2

2.0

21
2211,2
2211
2212

6.03
9.34
8.06
1.28

.8
6.0
4.8
12.8

-.6
-5.4
-4.0
-12.5

-1.9
7.7
7.1
12.0

.2
8.4
10.7
-5.6

1.0
-3.3
-5.2
10.4

-2.7
10.3
11.4
4.0

.1
-13.7
-14.3
-10.2

.2
.4
.1
2.0

-.4
-.9
-.9
-.9

1.2
-3.3
-3.5
-2.1

-.4
3.9
4.7
-.9

-1.0
-1.9
-1.6
-3.4

MARKET GROUPS
Final products and nonindustrial supplies
Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Home electronics
Appliances, furniture, carpeting
Miscellaneous goods
Nondurable
Non-energy
Foods and tobacco
Clothing
Chemical products
Paper products
Energy
Business equipment
Transit
Information processing
Industrial and other
Defense and space equipment
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials
Non-energy
Durable
Consumer parts
Equipment parts
Other
Nondurable
Textile
Paper
Chemical
Energy

INDUSTRY GROUPS
Manufacturing
Manufacturing (NAICS)
Durable manufacturing
Wood products
Nonmetallic mineral products
Primary metal
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Computer and electronic products
Electrical equip., appliances,
and components
Motor vehicles and parts
Aerospace and other miscellaneous
transportation equipment
Furniture and related products
Miscellaneous
Nondurable manufacturing
Food, beverage, and tobacco products
Textile and product mills
Apparel and leather
Paper
Printing and support
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical
Plastics and rubber products
Other manufacturing (non-NAICS)

Q2r

2003
Apr.r

Mayr

Juner

Julyp

July ’02
to
July ’03

2000

Total IP

Mining
Utilities
Electric
Natural gas

Annual rate
2003
Q4
Q1

2002
Q3

r Revised. p Preliminary.
NOTE. Under industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The abbreviation
pt denotes part of an NAICS code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in the
products category, miscellaneous consumer nondurables, oil and gas drilling, and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category,
containers and miscellaneous nondurable materials are not shown separately.
1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year.

7

Table 2

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: SPECIAL AGGREGATES AND SELECTED DETAIL
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
Fourth quarter to
fourth quarter

Item
It

2002
proportion

Annual rate
2003
Q4
Q1

Monthly rate

2000

2001

2002

100.00

2.7

-5.7

1.4

3.4

-3.4

.3

-3.5

-.5

.1

.0

.5

-1.4

Energy
Consumer products
Commercial products
Oil and gas well drilling
Converted fuel
Primary materials

16.15
3.98
2.22
.25
3.41
6.30

3.7
7.6
7.0
29.4
5.3
-1.3

-3.5
-5.2
.3
-10.9
-7.7
-1.0

3.8
8.1
4.5
-14.8
2.9
2.4

4.8
2.5
6.9
13.7
11.0
1.7

-1.8
.8
-4.1
4.4
-7.1
.3

6.1
9.2
9.1
-3.6
12.7
.1

-7.7
-10.8
-12.9
20.4
-10.7
-3.2

.1
.1
.1
3.1
.1
.1

-.5
-.5
-.3
3.4
-1.8
.0

-1.5
-3.2
-3.4
-1.9
-1.8
.5

2.1
3.7
3.3
-1.0
2.4
.7

-1.1
-.2
-2.6
4.2
-2.2
-.9

Non-energy

83.85

2.5

-6.1

1.0

3.1

-3.7

-.8

-2.6

-.7

.2

.3

.1

-1.4

3341
3342

5.30
1.20
1.68

40.0
17.7
30.3

-9.6
-5.9
-20.2

7.1
19.9
-16.6

7.5
9.4
-21.3

6.7
25.5
-16.1

8.2
24.5
2.8

12.7
19.8
-3.9

.8
1.1
-1.6

1.2
1.2
-.4

.7
1.2
-.7

.8
1.6
-2.0

9.3
21.9
-8.8

334412–9

2.42

55.8

-3.4

19.8

30.7

14.5

3.9

21.1

2.3

2.2

1.3

2.2

15.9

78.55

-1.2

-5.6

.4

2.7

-4.4

-1.4

-3.6

-.8

.1

.3

.1

-2.1

7.12
3.02
3.70

-8.4
-12.0
-4.3

-1.2
2.0
-2.1

10.9
12.1
8.7

18.1
26.7
10.1

-5.6
-13.9
.2

1.6
1.7
3.3

-11.9
-17.0
-8.6

-1.3
-1.2
-1.1

-1.1
-2.4
-.5

1.7
1.9
1.0

2.9
5.1
1.6

-.9
-3.5
.6

Excluding motor vehicles and parts
Consumer goods
Business equipment
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials

71.43
22.46
7.16
6.73
9.71
25.53

-.5
.8
5.4
.3
1.2
-2.8

-6.0
-2.2
-13.7
-5.9
-4.9
-7.3

-.5
-1.3
-6.0
.8
1.3
.9

1.3
-.9
-2.8
1.2
5.0
3.0

-4.3
-3.9
-7.7
-4.2
-2.8
-4.7

-1.7
-.2
-1.9
-6.2
1.5
-2.9

-2.7
-.8
-3.1
-1.5
-5.9
-4.8

-.7
-.4
-.7
-.4
-1.1
-.9

.2
.0
.4
.7
.5
-.1

.1
.4
.5
.0
-.7
-.3

-.2
-.6
.5
.2
.5
-.2

-2.3
-1.9
-2.1
-2.5
-1.8
-3.5

Measures excluding selected high-technology
industries
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

94.70
79.32
38.31

-.4
-1.1
-1.3

-5.2
-5.6
-7.8

1.0
.5
1.0

3.0
2.6
3.0

-3.9
-4.4
-4.2

-.2
-1.2
-1.8

-4.3
-3.5
-5.2

-.6
-.8
-.8

.0
.1
.2

-.1
.2
.4

.5
.1
.8

-2.0
-2.0
-1.7

Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

92.88
77.51
36.49

3.5
3.5
7.9

-6.0
-6.5
-9.3

.7
.1
.3

2.3
1.7
1.0

-3.2
-3.5
-2.3

.2
-.8
-1.1

-2.8
-1.6
-1.3

-.5
-.6
-.4

.1
.3
.6

-.1
.1
.2

.3
-.1
.4

-1.4
-1.4
-.3

Stage-of-process components of non–energy
materials, measures of the input to
Finished processors
Semifinished and primary processors

13.94
16.55

8.0
-3.1

-7.9
-5.9

4.6
1.3

8.3
2.9

-.8
-5.2

-2.1
-1.7

-2.6
-5.6

-.7
-.9

.3
-.3

.1
-.1

.5
-.1

-.6
-3.4

Total industry

Selected high-technology industries
Computers and office equipment
Communications equipment
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
Excluding selected high-technology
industries
Motor vehicles and parts
Motor vehicles
Motor vehicle parts

3361–3
3361
3363

Q2r

2003
Apr.r

Mayr

Juner

Julyp

July ’02
to
July ’03

2002
Q3

r Revised. p Preliminary.
1. See note on cover page.

Table 3

MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLIES
Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
2002
average

2002
Q3

Q4

2003
Q1

Q2

2003
Apr.

May

June

July

Total
Autos
Trucks
Light
Medium and heavy

12.29
5.02
7.27
7.00
.27

13.00
5.16
7.84
7.52
.33

12.39
4.86
7.53
7.26
.27

12.38
4.71
7.67
7.43
.24

11.70
4.41
7.30
7.04
.26

11.71
4.35
7.36
7.10
.26

11.50
4.40
7.10
6.84
.26

11.90
4.47
7.43
7.17
.26

12.15
4.46
7.69
7.44
.25

MEMO
Autos and light trucks

12.02

12.68

12.12

12.14

11.44

11.46

11.24

11.64

11.90

Item
It

NOTE. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board’s web site,
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.htm

8

Table 4

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: MARKET AND INDUSTRY GROUP SUMMARY
1997 = 100, seasonally adjusted
2002
proportion

Item
It

2002
Nov.

Dec.

2003
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.r

Mayr

Juner

Julyp

100.00

110.8

109.9

110.7

110.7

110.1

109.5

109.5

109.5

110.0

59.81
30.46
7.52
4.29
.34
1.29
1.60
22.93
18.96
10.27
1.04
4.79
2.29
3.98

109.3
107.8
121.0
132.4
142.1
107.1
98.3
103.3
101.3
97.9
70.6
118.0
108.8
114.0

108.2
106.6
117.8
125.9
145.3
107.7
98.7
102.8
100.8
97.4
69.9
116.9
109.0
113.3

109.1
107.7
120.5
131.3
152.7
105.4
98.7
103.4
101.1
97.6
69.7
117.9
108.3
115.7

109.3
107.8
118.5
128.8
145.9
105.5
96.9
104.1
101.6
97.2
69.1
120.2
110.2
117.2

108.7
107.2
117.9
127.4
152.0
105.7
96.2
103.6
101.7
97.2
68.0
120.6
111.0
113.8

108.2
106.8
116.9
125.9
154.7
106.0
94.9
103.3
101.3
97.0
66.1
120.8
110.0
113.9

108.4
106.5
116.5
124.3
152.4
108.0
95.4
103.1
101.1
97.0
65.8
120.0
110.3
113.3

108.4
106.7
117.6
126.9
155.1
106.6
95.2
102.9
101.7
97.3
64.2
121.9
111.5
109.7

108.9
107.2
120.4
131.3
161.7
108.2
94.6
102.9
100.8
96.6
63.4
120.2
110.4
113.8

9.65
1.74
3.05
4.86
2.20

106.1
77.9
152.8
91.1
101.7

104.6
75.4
152.7
89.7
102.3

105.6
75.7
155.1
90.4
104.1

105.9
74.5
156.3
90.8
104.8

105.5
73.9
158.0
89.9
105.2

104.8
73.9
156.6
89.2
104.7

105.3
73.6
158.1
89.5
106.0

105.7
73.5
157.8
90.5
106.5

106.1
73.5
158.7
90.9
107.7

6.84
10.30

103.8
122.5

102.4
121.9

102.3
122.8

101.8
123.7

101.4
122.5

101.0
121.3

101.6
122.1

101.6
121.4

101.8
122.1

40.19
30.49
18.56
4.21
5.94
8.41
11.93
.80
3.00
4.18
9.71

113.1
116.7
129.7
114.6
185.3
97.2
97.0
77.0
96.9
97.9
99.4

112.4
115.6
128.1
111.1
184.4
96.4
96.5
75.3
95.8
97.3
99.7

113.0
116.0
129.1
113.8
186.0
96.3
96.2
74.1
94.4
98.3
100.9

112.8
115.9
128.6
111.9
186.2
96.3
96.4
74.2
93.6
99.2
100.8

112.1
115.4
127.6
110.9
186.2
95.0
96.7
73.8
94.8
99.3
99.2

111.4
114.5
126.6
110.5
186.3
93.6
95.9
72.2
92.8
99.3
99.2

111.3
114.5
127.0
109.5
188.2
93.9
95.5
70.7
93.9
97.1
98.6

111.1
114.5
127.2
110.2
188.9
93.7
95.2
69.8
93.2
96.4
98.3

111.6
114.7
127.9
111.8
189.7
93.9
94.8
68.1
93.1
96.6
99.6

321
327
331
332
333
334

84.62
79.31
43.41
1.43
2.50
2.45
6.07
5.28
8.09

111.6
112.0
122.2
98.3
110.2
86.2
98.7
87.4
224.5

110.6
110.8
120.5
96.9
108.0
84.1
98.3
85.8
224.5

111.1
111.5
121.9
97.4
109.7
85.0
97.9
86.7
226.6

111.1
111.3
121.3
96.5
108.0
85.2
97.1
87.4
227.5

110.9
111.0
120.5
95.9
108.1
81.3
96.1
87.5
229.3

110.1
110.2
119.8
95.7
108.5
79.8
95.7
87.2
229.6

110.3
110.4
120.2
95.7
109.4
79.2
95.7
88.0
232.5

110.6
110.7
120.7
96.5
108.4
80.2
95.4
88.7
233.1

110.8
111.0
121.8
98.2
108.4
80.9
95.5
88.5
236.1

335
3361–3

2.39
7.12

97.0
123.9

96.9
117.8

95.7
122.9

96.1
120.0

95.2
118.4

93.9
116.9

95.4
115.6

95.4
117.6

94.7
121.0

3364–9
337
339

3.29
1.69
3.10

84.8
100.6
108.6

85.2
98.9
110.0

86.0
98.8
109.5

85.6
98.6
109.4

85.7
97.3
108.4

85.9
97.0
106.7

86.5
97.7
106.6

86.5
96.9
106.9

86.6
99.1
106.5

311,2
313,4
315,6
322
323
324
325
326

35.90
11.65
1.29
1.12
3.14
2.67
1.92
10.24
3.87

98.9
98.6
81.7
70.5
96.8
98.4
103.9
104.2
105.8

98.3
98.3
80.8
69.7
95.0
98.9
105.0
103.4
104.6

98.2
98.5
78.4
69.7
93.0
99.1
102.0
104.4
104.9

98.5
98.2
79.2
69.0
93.0
97.7
101.8
106.0
105.3

98.6
98.2
79.7
68.0
94.6
96.3
103.8
105.8
105.6

97.8
97.9
77.9
66.1
93.0
94.8
102.4
105.7
103.5

97.9
98.0
77.0
65.8
93.9
95.7
104.0
104.7
104.7

97.8
98.2
76.3
64.3
93.7
95.4
102.6
105.3
104.2

97.4
97.6
75.3
63.6
93.3
95.2
103.8
104.7
104.1

1133,5111

5.32

105.4

105.9

105.3

107.5

108.1

107.3

107.5

108.5

107.1

21
2211,2
2211
2212

6.03
9.34
8.06
1.28

93.6
112.1
113.3
105.8

95.2
110.5
112.2
101.6

93.6
115.0
116.8
105.4

92.8
116.3
118.0
107.5

92.8
111.7
113.6
101.2

93.0
112.1
113.7
103.3

92.6
111.1
112.7
102.3

93.8
107.4
108.7
100.1

93.4
111.5
113.8
99.2

Total IP

MARKET GROUPS
Final products and nonindustrial supplies
Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Home electronics
Appliances, furniture, carpeting
Miscellaneous goods
Nondurable
Non-energy
Foods and tobacco
Clothing
Chemical products
Paper products
Energy
Business equipment
Transit
Information processing
Industrial and other
Defense and space equipment
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials
Non-energy
Durable
Consumer parts
Equipment parts
Other
Nondurable
Textile
Paper
Chemical
Energy

INDUSTRY GROUPS
Manufacturing
Manufacturing (NAICS)
Durable manufacturing
Wood products
Nonmetallic mineral products
Primary metal
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Computer and electronic products
Electrical equip., appliances,
and components
Motor vehicles and parts
Aerospace and other miscellaneous
transportation equipment
Furniture and related products
Miscellaneous
Nondurable manufacturing
Food, beverage, and tobacco products
Textile and product mills
Apparel and leather
Paper
Printing and support
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical
Plastics and rubber products
Other manufacturing (non-NAICS)
Mining
Utilities
Electric
Natural gas
r Revised. p Preliminary.
NOTE. See notes to table 1.

9

Table 5

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES: SPECIAL AGGREGATES
1997 = 100, seasonally adjusted
2002
proportion

Item
It

2002
Nov.

Dec.

2003
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.r

Mayr

Juner

Julyp

100.00

110.8

109.9

110.7

110.7

110.1

109.5

109.5

109.5

110.0

Energy
Consumer products
Commercial products
Oil and gas well drilling
Converted fuel
Primary materials

16.15
3.98
2.22
3.41
6.30

104.8
114.0
118.4
88.3
103.5
96.5

104.8
113.3
116.5
93.7
102.4
97.7

106.5
115.7
120.9
88.6
106.0
97.5

107.0
117.2
122.6
92.6
107.5
96.6

104.6
113.8
117.8
90.6
105.1
95.4

104.8
113.9
117.9
93.4
105.1
95.5

104.3
113.3
117.5
96.5
103.3
95.6

102.7
109.7
113.5
94.7
101.4
96.0

104.9
113.8
117.3
93.8
103.8
96.7

Non-energy

83.85

111.6

110.6

111.1

111.1

110.8

110.1

110.2

110.6

110.7

3341
3342

5.30
1.20
1.68

301.7
245.0
130.4

299.9
248.7
127.0

302.7
252.7
128.9

306.5
258.2
130.7

309.9
264.5
132.1

312.5
267.3
129.9

316.2
270.4
129.4

318.3
273.5
128.5

320.8
277.8
125.9

334412–9

2.42

531.3

529.2

530.0

534.0

536.6

549.0

561.4

568.7

581.1

78.55

99.7

98.7

99.2

99.1

98.8

98.0

98.1

98.3

98.4

7.12
3.02
3.70

123.9
127.2
122.3

117.8
117.9
118.8

122.9
125.4
122.7

120.0
121.1
120.8

118.4
118.7
119.7

116.9
117.3
118.4

115.6
114.5
117.8

117.6
116.7
119.0

121.0
122.6
120.9

Excluding motor vehicles and parts
Consumer goods
Business equipment
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Materials

71.43
22.46
7.16
6.73
9.71
25.53

97.6
101.3
89.4
103.6
103.1
95.5

97.0
100.9
88.4
102.2
102.6
94.9

97.2
101.1
88.9
102.1
103.4
94.9

97.3
101.3
89.0
101.6
104.1
94.9

97.0
101.4
88.3
101.2
103.0
94.6

96.3
100.9
87.7
100.8
101.8
93.7

96.5
100.9
88.0
101.5
102.3
93.7

96.6
101.3
88.5
101.5
101.6
93.4

96.4
100.7
88.9
101.6
102.1
93.3

Measures excluding selected high-technology
industries
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

94.70
79.32
38.31

100.6
99.8
99.7

99.8
98.8
98.2

100.5
99.3
99.3

100.5
99.2
98.6

99.8
98.9
97.8

99.2
98.1
97.0

99.2
98.2
97.2

99.1
98.5
97.6

99.6
98.6
98.4

Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts
Total industry
Manufacturing1
Durable

92.88
77.51
36.49

109.8
110.5
121.3

109.3
109.9
120.5

109.8
110.1
121.1

110.1
110.3
121.0

109.5
110.2
120.4

108.9
109.5
119.9

109.1
109.8
120.5

108.9
110.0
120.8

109.2
109.9
121.3

Stage-of-process components of non–energy
materials, measures of the input to
Finished processors
Semifinished and primary processors

13.94
16.55

139.2
98.3

137.1
97.9

138.0
98.0

137.1
98.3

137.1
97.6

136.2
96.8

136.6
96.5

136.7
96.4

137.4
96.3

Total industry

Selected high-technology industries
Computers and office equipment
Communications equipment
Semiconductors and related
electronic components
Excluding selected high-technology
industries
Motor vehicles and parts
Motor vehicles
Motor vehicle parts

3361–3
3361
3363

r Revised. p Preliminary.
1. See note on cover page.

Table 6

DIFFUSION INDEXES OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Percent
Item
It

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

One month earlier
2001
2002
2003

41.4
55.6
54.9

40.3
61.0
48.8

40.3
61.0
43.4

46.8
58.0
37.1

35.3
59.3
55.9

38.0
55.9
48.6

47.5
52.9

45.1
48.5

42.4
43.9

43.1
41.7

38.6
48.1

49.5
45.1

Three months earlier
2001
2002
2003

34.6
44.7
47.8

29.8
55.1
45.8

33.9
59.9
43.7

36.9
60.7
33.9

33.9
63.1
42.4

36.9
62.0
41.7

39.0
63.7

40.3
58.3

38.0
47.5

40.7
38.3

37.6
47.1

40.3
42.0

Six months earlier
2001
2002
2003

30.2
39.3
41.4

30.5
43.9
39.3

28.5
52.7
42.0

27.8
53.7
38.3

27.8
66.3
36.3

30.8
66.3
39.0

31.5
65.8

38.0
63.7

38.0
54.9

32.5
49.8

33.2
51.2

38.0
45.4

NOTE. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half
the percentage that were unchanged.

10

Table 7

CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted
19722002
ave.

198889
high

199091
low

199495
high

2002
Q3

Q4

2003
Q1

Q2r

2003
Apr.r

Mayr

Juner

Julyp

100.00

81.3

85.1

78.6

84.8

76.2

75.3

75.2

74.3

74.3

74.3

74.2

74.5

86.69
81.79

80.2
80.0

85.6
85.5

77.2
77.0

84.3
84.4

74.3
73.8

73.5
73.0

73.2
72.6

72.6
71.9

72.5
71.8

72.6
71.9

72.7
72.0

72.8
72.1

321
327
331
332
333
334

47.13
1.47
2.34
2.42
6.47
5.94
10.28

78.5
80.3
79.5
81.0
77.1
79.9
79.6

84.5
88.7
85.6
95.3
80.1
84.7
81.5

73.4
73.1
72.1
75.2
71.0
72.9
76.4

83.7
87.7
83.7
94.8
83.6
88.7
85.4

70.5
75.2
81.3
77.1
71.3
68.3
62.6

69.7
72.6
81.5
77.6
70.8
66.7
62.3

69.3
71.4
80.9
75.8
69.4
67.2
62.3

68.4
70.9
80.9
71.9
68.4
67.9
62.3

68.2
70.7
80.7
72.1
68.4
67.3
62.1

68.3
70.7
81.4
71.5
68.4
67.9
62.5

68.5
71.3
80.7
72.3
68.2
68.5
62.3

69.0
72.5
80.6
72.8
68.3
68.4
62.7

335
3361–3

2.40
6.79

83.3
77.3

87.5
90.0

75.0
56.6

92.5
87.0

75.9
82.7

75.5
80.8

74.7
80.4

74.3
77.0

73.4
77.4

74.6
76.3

74.7
77.4

74.2
79.3

3364–9
337
339

4.13
1.80
3.10

73.1
79.2
77.1

88.9
84.1
81.7

81.9
68.1
77.5

67.9
83.7
81.2

59.1
70.8
75.5

58.7
70.1
74.7

59.1
68.9
74.2

59.5
68.1
72.2

59.2
68.0
72.3

59.6
68.4
72.1

59.6
67.9
72.2

59.7
69.3
71.8

311,2
313,4
315,6
322
323
324
325
326

34.66
10.97
1.33
1.33
2.87
2.57
1.52
10.37
3.69

82.2
82.4
83.6
80.0
88.5
84.8
86.4
78.7
83.7

86.9
85.5
91.1
83.9
94.0
91.7
88.9
85.6
91.2

81.8
81.3
77.1
77.2
85.4
82.7
82.5
80.8
77.1

85.4
84.3
90.6
89.1
92.6
86.0
90.4
81.3
92.3

78.5
79.7
74.2
64.8
84.0
80.3
88.7
75.3
80.4

77.6
78.7
73.1
63.2
84.2
80.9
88.9
73.7
79.4

77.4
78.3
71.5
62.3
82.4
80.2
88.3
74.5
79.5

77.0
78.3
70.1
59.6
82.7
78.3
88.4
74.3
79.1

76.9
78.1
70.7
60.1
82.1
77.9
87.9
74.7
78.5

77.0
78.2
70.0
60.0
83.0
78.6
89.3
73.9
79.5

77.0
78.5
69.4
58.8
82.9
78.4
87.9
74.3
79.3

76.7
78.0
68.7
58.4
82.7
78.2
88.9
73.8
79.4

1133,5111

4.89

83.6

90.2

79.1

82.7

81.8

82.3

83.4

84.3

83.9

84.1

85.0

84.0

21
2211,2

5.20
8.12

86.9
86.7

85.6
92.6

83.3
84.2

88.5
93.8

84.9
88.2

85.1
86.0

84.4
86.9

84.3
82.8

84.2
84.5

83.9
83.4

84.9
80.4

84.6
83.2

3341
3342

7.08
1.36
2.52

79.3
78.6
78.4

80.4
79.7
82.0

74.6
67.0
73.3

88.5
86.4
87.4

62.2
74.4
52.0

62.2
77.1
49.8

62.1
79.4
50.2

62.5
80.6
49.8

62.4
80.5
50.0

62.6
80.6
49.8

62.5
80.7
49.5

62.5
81.1
48.5

334412–9

3.20

81.2

81.4

78.7

92.0

66.3

67.0

65.5

66.2

65.8

66.4

66.4

66.9

92.92
79.61

81.4
80.2

85.5
86.1

78.8
77.3

84.6
84.0

77.6
75.8

76.8
75.0

76.6
74.7

75.7
74.1

75.7
73.9

75.7
74.0

75.6
74.2

75.9
74.3

8.45
49.25
42.30

86.4
82.2
78.5

88.6
86.2
83.1

84.7
77.6
77.2

89.3
87.7
80.3

83.8
78.5
71.6

83.1
77.9
70.6

82.6
77.6
70.6

82.3
76.3
70.2

82.2
76.5
70.1

82.0
76.5
70.1

82.7
75.9
70.4

82.5
76.4
70.5

2002
proportion

Item

Total industry
Manufacturing
Manufacturing (NAICS)
Durable manufacturing
Wood products
Nonmetallic mineral products
Primary metal
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Computer and electronic products
Electrical equip., appliances,
and components
Motor vehicles and parts
Aircraft and other miscellaneous
transportation equipment
Furniture and related products
Miscellaneous
Nondurable manufacturing
Food, beverage, and tobacco products
Textile and product mills
Apparel and leather
Paper
Printing and support
Petroleum and coal products
Chemical
Plastics and rubber products
Other manufacturing (non-NAICS)
Mining
Utilities
Selected high-technology industries
Computers and office equipment
Communications equipment
Semiconductors and related
electronic components

Measures excluding selected high-technology
industries
Total industry
Manufacturing1

STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS

Crude
Primary and semifinished
Finished

r Revised. p Preliminary.
1. See note on cover page.

Table 8

INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY
Percent change
Item

197279

Average annual rate
1980198988
94

Fourth quarter to fourth quarter
19952003

2000

2001

2002

2003p

2002
Q4

Annual rate
2003
Q1
Q2

Q3

Monthly rate
2003
July

Total industry

2.8

1.8

2.2

4.1

4.3

2.4

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

.1

Manufacturing1

3.1

2.1

2.6

4.5

5.0

2.4

.9

.8

.6

.8

.8

.8

.1

Mining
Utilities

.7
3.6

.1
1.7

-.8
1.3

.0
2.9

-.4
2.9

2.2
4.1

-.2
6.5

.4
5.0

.3
6.7

.5
5.8

.3
4.9

.3
4.5

.0
.4

18.2

17.2

15.4

31.9

40.3

23.2

8.7

9.8

6.9

8.6

9.7

10.6

.8

2.4

1.2

1.7

1.9

1.5

.4

-.1

.2

-.1

.2

.2

.2

.0

1.6
2.8
3.5

.3
1.4
3.0

-.2
2.5
2.5

-.1
5.2
3.7

-.4
5.6
4.0

.8
3.0
2.0

-.6
1.7
.9

-.1
1.5
.8

-.2
1.3
.9

.0
1.5
.9

-.2
1.5
.8

-.2
1.5
.7

.0
.1
.1

Selected high-technology industries
Manufacturing1 ex. selected
high-technology industries

STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS
Crude
Primary and semifinished
Finished

p Preliminary.
1. See note on cover page.

11

Table 9

GROSS VALUE OF FINAL PRODUCTS AND NONINDUSTRIAL SUPPLIES
Billions of 1996 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted
1996

2002

2002
Q2

Q3

Q4

2003
Q1

Q2r

2003
Apr.r

Mayr

Juner

Julyp

2,409.0

2,801.4

2,804.1

2,823.6

2,798.7

2,802.6

2,779.4

2,777.2

2,780.6

2,780.3

2,805.3

1,751.3
1,227.6
354.0
216.1
137.9
873.6

2,022.5
1,386.5
459.9
296.3
161.5
927.7

2,024.6
1,387.2
459.4
295.1
162.3
928.7

2,038.2
1,398.2
471.4
308.9
159.6
928.8

2,019.9
1,388.4
466.7
303.1
161.1
923.6

2,026.9
1,394.8
469.1
305.7
160.8
927.5

2,011.4
1,380.4
459.0
296.0
160.9
922.4

2,011.2
1,382.6
459.5
297.0
160.3
924.1

2,009.3
1,378.4
455.8
292.4
161.6
923.1

2,013.7
1,380.3
461.8
298.7
160.9
920.0

2,033.9
1,396.2
476.4
311.1
162.5
923.0

Equipment, total
Business and defense
Business
Defense and space

523.7
508.8
428.1
80.6

626.9
616.9
531.2
84.1

628.7
618.8
533.8
83.6

630.7
620.7
534.5
84.6

621.3
611.8
524.9
85.0

621.4
612.9
524.5
86.2

621.7
612.9
523.4
87.1

618.4
609.7
521.3
86.2

621.9
612.9
523.1
87.3

624.8
616.0
525.7
87.9

628.1
619.3
527.6
89.0

Nonindustrial supplies
Construction supplies
Business supplies
Commercial energy products

657.8
255.8
402.0
113.0

778.9
279.1
502.2
132.6

779.6
280.4
501.5
132.7

785.5
280.7
507.4
134.6

778.9
277.5
504.2
133.6

775.6
272.9
506.3
135.8

767.8
272.0
498.9
131.5

765.7
270.7
498.3
133.0

771.3
272.4
502.2
133.5

766.3
272.8
496.4
128.1

771.0
273.4
500.7
132.3

July ’02
to
July ’03

Item
It

Final products and nonindustrial
supplies
Final products
Consumer goods
Durable
Automotive products
Other durable goods
Nondurable

r Revised. p Preliminary.

Table 10

GROSS-VALUE-WEIGHTED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: STAGE-OF-PROCESS GROUPS
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
Fourth quarter to
fourth quarter

Item
It

2002
gross value1

Finished
Semi-finished
Primary
Crude

1773.1
1771.7
866.8
355.2

2000

2001

2002

2002
Q3

1.8
3.8
-1.3
-4.5

-5.2
-5.7
-6.0
-4.3

.4
3.2
3.5
-.4

2.8
6.1
1.4
2.3

Annual rate
2003
Q4
Q1
-5.1
-2.6
-1.7
-6.2

.4
-.3
1.4
-3.0

Junep

2003
Jan.

Monthly rate
Q2r

2003
Apr.r

Mayr

Juner

Julyp

-2.4
-3.6
-7.8
-6.9

-.3
-.6
-.8
-1.2

-.2
.4
-.2
-1.2

.7
-.5
-1.1
.7

.7
.7
1.1
.1

-1.0
-1.2
-2.0
-4.3

r Revised. p Preliminary.
1. Billions of 1996 dollars.

Table 11

ELECTRIC POWER USE
1997 = 100
Item

1997
billion
kWh

Seasonally adjusted
2003
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.r

Not seasonally adjusted
Mayr

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.r

Mayr

Junep

Total Industry

983.9

87.8

87.8

86.1

86.0

85.9

85.7

86.1

85.5

84.7

85.5

85.7

86.0

Manufacturing1
Durable
Nondurable

890.9
386.5
498.4

87.9
88.5
87.4

87.8
88.5
87.2

86.1
87.2
85.1

86.0
86.9
85.2

86.1
85.6
86.4

85.6
84.2
86.7

85.9
85.9
85.9

85.4
86.0
84.8

84.7
85.6
83.9

85.5
86.0
85.1

85.9
86.1
85.7

86.1
86.0
86.0

93.0

86.2

87.1

86.6

86.2

83.7

86.2

88.7

87.4

85.7

85.0

82.8

84.7

962.6
913.5
70.4

88.4
86.8
120.1

88.2
86.4
120.1

86.8
85.4
112.8

86.8
84.5
115.1

86.5
83.7
114.0

85.8
82.3
115.7

86.1
83.8
123.6

85.3
83.6
114.9

84.7
82.8
114.7

85.8
83.9
111.2

86.5
84.0
112.6

87.4
84.2
114.1

Mining
Total ex. nuclear nondefense
Utility sales to industry
Industrial generation

r Revised. p Preliminary.
1. See note on cover page.
NOTE. Additional industry detail is available on the Board’s web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/download.htm.

12

Table 12

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change)1
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

-.6
-1.7
1.9
2.1
-.3

-.4
1.9
-.5
.2
.5

.5
-.7
.7
.7
.0

-.5
-.8
1.3
.6
.0

.7
-.8
.7
.5
.1

.5
-.4
.6
.3
-.1

.7
-.3
1.5
.3
-.6

-.1
-.8
1.1
.1
.4

-.7
-.4
1.5
-.3
.4

-.7
-1.0
.7
-.1
-.4

-1.1
-.3
.4
.3
.3

-1.2
-.9
.5
.0
1.0

1.1
-7.2
4.5
12.6
.8

1.4
-5.3
9.8
6.6
.6

4.1
-5.8
14.5
2.7
-.7

-9.0
-7.9
10.4
.0
2.2

1.2
-5.2
2.6
9.0
1.1

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

.5
-.6
.1
.3
-.6

-.6
1.3
.4
-.5
.9

-.6
.2
.2
.4
.5

.0
.6
.4
.0
.0

.1
.6
-.1
-.7
.0

-.3
.6
.1
.0
.4

.3
.7
.3
-1.0
-.2

.1
.7
.6
.9
.1

.2
.2
-.3
-.3
.1

.4
1.3
.5
-.1
-.6

.5
.4
.3
.2
-1.3

.8
.4
.4
.7
-.6

2.6
4.5
3.4
1.8
2.9

-2.6
7.1
2.7
-1.5
3.2

.9
7.5
2.4
-3.0
.8

4.9
8.8
3.0
1.3
-6.0

.9
4.8
4.8
.9
.8

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

-.4
-.6
.4
.5
.5

-.7
.8
.3
.1
.1

-.5
.8
.2
.9
.0

.2
.6
.2
.6
-.1

1.0
.4
-.4
.6
.3

.9
-.1
.2
.7
.4

.1
.8
.4
.2
-.4

-.1
-.4
-.1
.5
1.4

.9
.2
.7
.1
.4

-.2
.7
.5
.8
-.2

-.2
.5
.5
.6
.4

-.3
.1
.6
1.1
.4

-7.3
-.4
3.5
5.7
6.0

2.4
6.9
1.1
7.4
.8

5.2
3.0
2.1
5.0
4.1

.6
4.2
6.0
7.6
3.7

-1.6
2.7
3.3
5.4
4.9

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

-.8
.3
.5
.7
.1

1.4
1.4
.3
.3
.7

-.2
.4
.3
.4
.4

.9
.5
.6
.2
.7

.7
.4
.5
.5
.6

.9
.5
-.5
.1
.2

.0
.4
-.1
.7
-.2

.6
1.0
1.8
.5
-.2

.6
.9
-.2
-.1
.3

.1
.8
.7
.9
-.4

.9
.6
-.3
.6
-.1

.6
.3
.1
.7
-.3

2.0
8.7
4.5
4.2
5.4

8.0
6.5
4.2
4.1
7.1

5.8
7.6
3.3
4.9
.2

6.5
9.2
4.0
6.5
-1.6

4.4
7.4
5.6
4.3
4.7

2001
2002
2003

-.8
.6
.7

-.5
.2
.1

-.5
.4
-.6

-.5
.4
-.5

-.6
.3
.1

-.6
.3
.0

-.1
.7
.5

-.3
-.2

-.7
-.1

-.4
-.6

-.6
.2

-.5
-.8

-6.1
1.4
.3

-6.1
4.4
-3.5

-4.6
3.4

-5.8
-3.4

-3.5
-.7

IP (1997=100)
2001
2002
2003

114.2
109.0
110.7

113.6
109.2
110.7

113.1
109.6
110.1

112.5
110.1
109.5

111.8
110.4
109.5

111.1
110.8
109.5

111.0
111.6
110.0

110.7
111.3

109.9
111.2

109.5
110.6

108.8
110.8

108.3
109.9

113.6
109.3
110.5

111.8
110.5
109.5

110.5
111.4

108.9
110.4

111.2
110.5

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2001
2002
2003

142.3
145.3
146.9

142.7
145.4
147.0

143.0
145.6
147.1

143.4
145.7
147.3

143.6
145.9
147.4

143.9
146.0
147.5

144.1
146.1
147.7

144.4
146.2

144.6
146.4

144.8
146.5

145.0
146.6

145.1
146.7

142.7
145.4
147.0

143.6
145.9
147.4

144.4
146.2

145.0
146.6

143.9
146.0

Utilization
(percent)
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

80.8
75.5
72.1
79.6
79.9

80.3
76.8
71.6
79.7
80.2

80.5
76.0
72.1
80.2
80.0

79.9
75.2
73.1
80.5
79.8

80.4
74.5
73.6
80.8
79.7

80.6
74.1
74.0
81.0
79.4

81.0
73.7
75.1
81.1
78.8

80.7
73.0
75.9
81.0
79.0

80.0
72.6
76.9
80.6
79.2

79.2
71.8
77.4
80.4
78.8

78.1
71.5
77.7
80.5
78.9

77.0
70.8
78.0
80.3
79.5

80.5
76.1
71.9
79.8
80.0

80.3
74.6
73.5
80.8
79.6

80.5
73.1
75.9
80.9
79.0

78.1
71.3
77.7
80.4
79.1

79.9
73.8
74.8
80.5
79.4

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

79.8
78.9
83.4
85.1
82.4

79.2
79.8
83.7
84.6
83.0

78.7
79.9
83.8
84.7
83.2

78.6
80.2
84.0
84.6
83.1

78.5
80.5
83.9
83.9
83.0

78.2
80.9
84.0
83.7
83.1

78.4
81.3
84.2
82.7
82.8

78.3
81.8
84.6
83.3
82.8

78.4
81.9
84.3
82.9
82.8

78.7
82.9
84.6
82.6
82.1

78.9
83.1
84.7
82.6
81.0

79.5
83.4
84.9
83.0
80.3

79.2
79.5
83.6
84.8
82.9

78.5
80.5
84.0
84.1
83.1

78.4
81.6
84.4
82.9
82.8

79.0
83.1
84.7
82.7
81.1

78.8
81.2
84.2
83.6
82.5

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

79.9
78.7
81.0
82.1
84.8

79.2
79.3
81.1
82.0
84.5

78.6
79.8
81.1
82.6
84.2

78.7
80.1
81.1
82.9
83.7

79.4
80.3
80.7
83.1
83.6

79.9
80.1
80.7
83.5
83.6

79.9
80.7
80.9
83.4
82.9

79.7
80.2
80.6
83.6
83.6

80.3
80.2
81.0
83.4
83.6

80.0
80.6
81.3
83.8
83.0

79.8
80.9
81.6
84.1
83.0

79.4
80.8
81.9
84.7
82.9

79.2
79.3
81.1
82.2
84.5

79.3
80.2
80.8
83.2
83.6

80.0
80.4
80.9
83.5
83.4

79.7
80.8
81.6
84.2
83.0

79.6
80.1
81.1
83.3
83.6

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

81.9
82.9
83.9
82.1
82.9

82.6
83.6
83.6
82.1
83.1

82.0
83.6
83.4
82.2
83.1

82.4
83.6
83.4
82.1
83.4

82.5
83.5
83.4
82.3
83.6

82.9
83.5
82.5
82.1
83.5

82.5
83.4
82.0
82.4
83.0

82.6
83.8
83.0
82.5
82.5

82.7
84.1
82.5
82.2
82.5

82.4
84.3
82.7
82.6
81.9

82.8
84.3
82.1
82.8
81.6

83.0
84.0
81.9
83.1
81.1

82.2
83.4
83.7
82.1
83.0

82.6
83.5
83.1
82.2
83.5

82.6
83.8
82.5
82.4
82.7

82.8
84.2
82.2
82.9
81.6

82.5
83.7
82.9
82.4
82.7

2001
2002
2003

80.2
75.0
75.3

79.6
75.1
75.3

79.0
75.3
74.8

78.5
75.6
74.3

77.9
75.7
74.3

77.2
75.9
74.2

77.0
76.4
74.5

76.7
76.1

76.0
76.0

75.6
75.5

75.1
75.6

74.6
74.9

79.6
75.1
75.2

77.9
75.7
74.3

76.6
76.2

75.1
75.3

77.3
75.6

1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages.

13

Table 13

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change) 2
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

-.4
-2.2
2.5
2.0
-.4

-.4
2.6
-.2
.8
-.2

.3
-.8
1.0
.8
.7

.5
-.6
1.2
.5
-.2

.6
-.3
1.3
.3
.1

-.5
-.2
.8
.4
.1

.3
-.1
1.5
.5
-.4

.0
-.9
.7
.1
.5

-.6
-.3
1.8
-.3
.1

-1.1
-1.3
1.1
.4
-.4

-1.2
-.6
.3
.3
.6

-1.7
-.5
.3
.4
.4

.8
-8.8
9.0
13.0
-.1

3.2
-2.1
12.5
6.7
1.4

-.1
-3.9
15.0
3.7
.1

-10.6
-9.0
12.1
2.2
1.7

1.0
-5.5
4.6
9.9
1.6

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

1.2
-.6
-.1
.8
-.2

-.5
1.6
.3
-1.0
1.4

-.4
.2
.3
.0
.4

.4
.5
.7
.1
-.1

.1
.6
-.1
-.8
.1

-.4
.5
.0
.1
.3

.1
.8
.2
-1.1
-.2

.6
.5
.1
.9
.1

.2
.5
.3
-.3
-.1

.4
1.4
.5
-.2
-.7

.5
.6
.3
.1
-1.2

.9
.5
.4
.2
-.7

4.8
4.9
2.7
1.8
4.4

-.1
7.2
3.8
-3.1
2.9

1.7
7.4
1.6
-3.2
.4

5.6
10.2
4.4
.0
-6.6

2.1
5.4
5.1
.7
.6

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

-.7
-.6
.9
.4
.5

-.7
1.0
.2
.1
-.1

-.7
.9
.0
1.2
.1

.4
.5
.4
.8
-.1

.7
.6
-.1
.7
.1

1.1
.2
-.2
.3
.5

.4
.8
.3
.4
-.6

.0
-.3
-.2
.8
1.2

1.1
.0
.9
.2
.9

-.1
.6
.6
.9
-.2

-.3
.5
.5
.8
.2

-.1
-.2
.6
1.1
.5

-8.6
.8
4.3
5.9
6.3

2.0
7.9
1.5
9.3
.4

6.9
4.0
1.3
6.0
3.2

1.4
3.0
6.7
9.3
4.5

-2.0
3.6
3.5
6.1
5.3

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

-.9
.3
.9
.5
.2

1.3
1.6
.2
.6
.6

-.3
.6
.2
.2
.8

1.1
.3
.8
.4
.7

.7
.5
.3
.7
.4

1.1
.7
-.6
.0
.3

.4
.3
-.1
.5
-.1

.6
1.4
2.1
.8
-.5

.7
.8
-.3
.0
.4

.1
.7
1.0
1.0
-.4

.9
.8
-.1
.8
-.4

.8
.4
.2
.6
-.6

1.0
10.1
6.5
4.4
6.1

9.1
7.7
3.8
4.7
7.1

8.3
8.7
3.8
4.9
.1

6.8
9.7
6.1
8.0
-2.9

4.7
8.5
6.5
4.9
5.0

2001
2002
2003

-.8
.6
.5

-.5
.1
.0

-.5
.2
-.2

-.5
.3
-.7

-.6
.4
.2

-.7
.4
.3

.0
.4
.2

-.5
.1

-.6
-.2

-.6
-.6

-.4
.1

-.4
-.9

-7.1
1.2
-.6

-6.2
3.5
-2.5

-4.9
3.0

-6.1
-3.7

-4.1
-1.1

IP (1997=100)
2001
2002
2003

115.7
110.3
111.1

115.1
110.4
111.1

114.5
110.7
110.9

114.0
111.0
110.1

113.3
111.4
110.3

112.5
111.9
110.6

112.5
112.3
110.8

111.9
112.4

111.2
112.1

110.6
111.4

110.1
111.6

109.6
110.6

115.1
110.5
111.0

113.3
111.4
110.3

111.9
112.3

110.1
111.2

112.6
111.4

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2001
2002
2003

147.5
150.4
151.6

147.9
150.5
151.7

148.2
150.6
151.8

148.5
150.8
151.9

148.8
150.9
152.0

149.1
151.0
152.1

149.3
151.1
152.2

149.5
151.1

149.7
151.2

149.9
151.3

150.1
151.4

150.2
151.4

147.9
150.5
151.7

148.8
150.9
152.0

149.5
151.1

150.1
151.4

149.1
151.0

Utilization
(percent)
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

78.5
71.8
70.2
78.3
79.1

77.9
73.6
70.0
78.8
78.7

78.0
72.8
70.7
79.3
79.1

78.2
72.3
71.5
79.6
78.7

78.5
71.9
72.5
79.6
78.6

77.9
71.7
73.0
79.8
78.5

77.9
71.5
74.0
80.0
78.0

77.7
70.7
74.5
79.9
78.2

77.1
70.5
75.8
79.5
78.2

76.1
69.4
76.6
79.6
77.7

75.0
69.0
76.8
79.6
78.1

73.6
68.6
76.9
79.7
78.3

78.1
72.8
70.3
78.8
79.0

78.2
72.0
72.3
79.7
78.6

77.6
70.9
74.8
79.8
78.1

74.9
69.0
76.8
79.6
78.0

77.2
71.1
73.5
79.5
78.4

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

79.1
78.8
83.2
85.6
81.6

78.6
79.9
83.4
84.5
82.5

78.2
79.8
83.6
84.4
82.7

78.4
80.1
84.1
84.3
82.4

78.4
80.4
84.0
83.4
82.3

78.1
80.7
83.9
83.3
82.3

78.1
81.1
84.1
82.2
82.0

78.4
81.4
84.1
82.8
82.0

78.5
81.7
84.3
82.3
81.8

78.7
82.7
84.7
82.0
81.0

78.9
83.1
84.8
81.8
79.9

79.4
83.4
85.0
81.8
79.2

78.6
79.5
83.4
84.8
82.3

78.3
80.4
84.0
83.7
82.3

78.3
81.4
84.2
82.4
81.9

79.0
83.1
84.8
81.9
80.1

78.6
81.1
84.1
83.2
81.6

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

78.5
77.7
80.2
80.9
84.3

77.9
78.4
80.1
80.8
83.9

77.2
79.0
80.0
81.6
83.6

77.3
79.2
80.2
82.0
83.1

77.8
79.5
79.9
82.4
82.8

78.4
79.5
79.6
82.4
82.8

78.6
80.0
79.7
82.5
81.8

78.4
79.6
79.4
82.9
82.4

79.2
79.4
79.9
82.8
82.7

78.9
79.7
80.2
83.2
82.1

78.6
80.0
80.5
83.6
81.8

78.3
79.7
80.8
84.2
81.8

77.9
78.4
80.1
81.1
83.9

77.8
79.4
79.9
82.3
82.9

78.7
79.7
79.7
82.7
82.3

78.6
79.8
80.5
83.7
81.9

78.3
79.3
80.0
82.4
82.8

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

80.6
81.6
83.2
81.2
81.9

81.2
82.5
82.9
81.3
82.0

80.5
82.6
82.5
81.2
82.2

80.9
82.5
82.6
81.1
82.4

81.0
82.5
82.3
81.4
82.4

81.5
82.6
81.3
81.1
82.3

81.4
82.4
80.8
81.2
81.9

81.4
83.0
82.0
81.5
81.2

81.6
83.1
81.4
81.2
81.2

81.3
83.2
81.8
81.6
80.6

81.6
83.3
81.3
81.9
80.0

81.8
83.1
81.1
82.1
79.3

80.7
82.3
82.9
81.2
82.0

81.2
82.5
82.0
81.2
82.4

81.5
82.8
81.4
81.3
81.4

81.6
83.2
81.4
81.9
80.0

81.2
82.7
81.9
81.4
81.4

2001
2002
2003

78.5
73.3
73.3

77.8
73.4
73.3

77.3
73.5
73.1

76.8
73.6
72.5

76.1
73.9
72.6

75.5
74.1
72.7

75.3
74.3
72.8

74.8
74.3

74.3
74.1

73.8
73.7

73.4
73.7

73.0
73.0

77.9
73.4
73.2

76.1
73.9
72.6

74.8
74.3

73.4
73.5

75.6
73.7

1. See note on cover page.
2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages.

14

Table 14

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Total Industry Excluding Selected
High-Technology Industries
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change) 1
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

-.7
-1.8
1.9
2.1
-.3

-.5
1.8
-.6
.1
.6

.5
-.8
.7
.6
.0

-.7
-.9
1.3
.5
.1

.7
-.9
.6
.4
.1

.5
-.4
.5
.2
-.1

.7
-.4
1.4
.2
-.5

-.2
-.8
1.2
-.1
.4

-.7
-.4
1.2
-.3
.5

-.8
-1.1
.7
-.1
-.4

-1.2
-.4
.3
.3
.3

-1.3
-1.0
.5
.0
1.0

.2
-8.1
3.6
11.4
.5

.5
-6.2
9.0
5.2
1.1

3.4
-6.5
13.6
1.5
-.3

-10.0
-8.5
9.2
-.8
2.3

.5
-6.0
1.8
7.8
.8

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

.6
-.7
.1
.3
-.7

-.6
1.3
.5
-.5
.9

-.7
.2
.1
.4
.5

-.1
.5
.3
-.1
-.1

.0
.5
-.2
-.7
.0

-.1
.5
.1
-.1
.4

.0
.6
.2
-1.2
-.2

.0
.6
.6
.8
.1

.2
.2
-.4
-.3
.1

.4
1.3
.4
-.2
-.7

.4
.3
.3
.1
-1.3

.8
.3
.4
.7
-.7

2.7
3.4
3.0
2.0
2.2

-2.9
6.4
2.0
-1.7
2.7

-.1
6.5
1.8
-3.9
.6

4.4
8.1
2.8
.6
-6.6

.8
4.0
4.2
.6
.2

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

-.3
-.8
.4
.5
.2

-.9
.8
.2
.1
-.1

-.6
.8
.1
.7
-.2

.2
.5
.3
.3
-.3

1.0
.3
-.5
.4
.1

.8
-.2
.1
.6
.2

.1
.7
.4
.0
-.6

-.1
-.4
-.2
.4
1.1

.9
.1
.6
-.1
.1

-.2
.5
.4
.6
-.6

-.3
.4
.3
.4
.2

-.5
.1
.5
.9
.3

-7.8
-1.9
3.0
4.9
3.4

1.8
5.8
.6
5.0
-1.5

5.0
1.8
1.3
3.1
1.6

.1
3.1
4.7
5.3
.3

-2.1
1.7
2.5
4.0
2.4

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

-.9
.1
.1
.4
-.4

1.2
1.1
.0
.1
.4

-.4
.0
.2
.2
.2

.7
.1
.5
-.1
.4

.4
.0
.4
.3
.2

.7
.2
-.8
-.2
.1

-.3
.2
-.5
.3
-.5

.4
.8
1.6
.4
-.4

.4
.8
-.5
-.2
.1

-.2
.7
.5
.6
-.6

.8
.3
-.5
.3
-.3

.4
-.1
-.2
.4
-.4

.2
5.5
1.1
.8
1.4

5.7
2.4
2.6
.9
3.4

2.4
4.9
-.2
1.7
-2.5

3.5
7.1
1.3
3.9
-3.6

1.8
4.2
2.9
1.2
1.4

2001
2002
2003

-.8
.6
.7

-.4
.2
.0

-.5
.4
-.7

-.3
.4
-.6

-.5
.2
.0

-.5
.3
-.1

.0
.7
.5

-.3
-.3

-.7
.0

-.4
-.7

-.7
.2

-.5
-.8

-6.0
1.2
-.2

-5.1
3.9
-4.3

-3.7
3.0

-6.1
-3.9

-4.1
-.8

IP (1997=100)
2001
2002
2003

103.6
99.3
100.5

103.2
99.6
100.5

102.7
99.9
99.8

102.4
100.3
99.2

101.8
100.5
99.2

101.3
100.8
99.1

101.3
101.5
99.6

101.0
101.2

100.3
101.2

99.9
100.5

99.3
100.6

98.7
99.8

103.2
99.6
100.3

101.8
100.6
99.1

100.9
101.3

99.3
100.3

101.3
100.5

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2001
2002
2003

129.4
130.2
130.8

129.6
130.3
130.8

129.7
130.3
130.9

129.8
130.3
131.0

129.8
130.4
131.1

129.9
130.4
131.1

130.0
130.4
131.2

130.1
130.5

130.1
130.5

130.2
130.6

130.2
130.6

130.2
130.7

129.5
130.3
130.8

129.8
130.4
131.1

130.1
130.5

130.2
130.6

129.9
130.4

Utilization
(percent)
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

80.5
75.3
71.8
79.3
79.6

80.1
76.5
71.4
79.3
79.9

80.3
75.8
71.9
79.8
79.8

79.7
75.0
72.8
80.1
79.7

80.1
74.2
73.3
80.4
79.7

80.4
73.8
73.7
80.5
79.5

80.8
73.4
74.8
80.6
79.0

80.5
72.8
75.7
80.5
79.2

79.7
72.4
76.6
80.1
79.5

78.9
71.6
77.2
79.9
79.1

77.9
71.3
77.4
80.1
79.2

76.8
70.5
77.7
79.9
79.9

80.3
75.9
71.7
79.5
79.8

80.0
74.3
73.3
80.4
79.6

80.3
72.9
75.7
80.4
79.2

77.9
71.1
77.4
80.0
79.4

79.6
73.6
74.5
80.1
79.5

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

80.3
79.2
83.7
85.5
82.6

79.7
80.1
84.1
85.0
83.3

79.1
80.2
84.1
85.2
83.5

79.0
80.5
84.4
85.0
83.3

78.9
80.8
84.3
84.4
83.2

78.8
81.2
84.3
84.2
83.4

78.7
81.6
84.5
83.1
83.1

78.6
82.1
84.9
83.6
83.1

78.7
82.1
84.5
83.2
83.1

79.0
83.2
84.8
82.9
82.4

79.3
83.4
85.0
82.9
81.2

79.8
83.7
85.3
83.3
80.6

79.7
79.8
84.0
85.2
83.1

78.9
80.8
84.3
84.5
83.3

78.7
81.9
84.6
83.3
83.1

79.4
83.4
85.1
83.0
81.4

79.2
81.5
84.5
84.0
82.7

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

80.2
78.8
81.0
82.3
84.6

79.4
79.3
81.1
82.3
84.3

78.8
79.9
81.1
82.7
83.9

78.9
80.2
81.3
82.9
83.4

79.6
80.4
80.8
83.1
83.3

80.2
80.1
80.8
83.5
83.3

80.1
80.6
81.0
83.4
82.7

80.0
80.2
80.8
83.6
83.4

80.6
80.2
81.2
83.4
83.3

80.4
80.6
81.4
83.7
82.6

80.0
80.8
81.6
84.0
82.6

79.6
80.8
82.0
84.5
82.7

79.5
79.3
81.1
82.4
84.3

79.5
80.2
81.0
83.2
83.4

80.2
80.4
81.0
83.4
83.1

80.0
80.7
81.7
84.1
82.6

79.8
80.2
81.2
83.3
83.3

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

81.7
83.1
83.8
82.4
82.4

82.6
83.8
83.6
82.3
82.6

82.1
83.6
83.6
82.3
82.6

82.5
83.5
83.7
82.1
82.9

82.7
83.3
83.9
82.2
83.0

83.1
83.2
83.0
82.0
82.9

82.7
83.1
82.3
82.1
82.4

82.8
83.6
83.4
82.2
82.0

82.9
84.0
82.8
81.9
82.0

82.6
84.3
83.1
82.3
81.5

83.1
84.3
82.5
82.5
81.1

83.3
84.0
82.2
82.8
80.8

82.1
83.5
83.7
82.3
82.5

82.8
83.3
83.5
82.1
82.9

82.8
83.5
82.9
82.1
82.1

83.0
84.2
82.6
82.5
81.1

82.7
83.6
83.2
82.3
82.2

2001
2002
2003

80.1
76.3
76.8

79.7
76.4
76.8

79.2
76.7
76.2

78.9
77.0
75.7

78.4
77.1
75.7

78.0
77.3
75.6

77.9
77.9
75.9

77.7
77.6

77.1
77.5

76.8
76.9

76.2
77.0

75.8
76.4

79.6
76.5
76.6

78.4
77.1
75.7

77.6
77.6

76.3
76.8

78.0
77.0

1. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages.
NOTE. Selected high–technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components.

15

Table 15

HISTORICAL STATISTICS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, CAPACITY, AND UTILIZATION: Manufacturing1 Excluding Selected
High-Technology Industries
Seasonally adjusted
Year

IP (percent
change) 2
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

-.6
-2.3
2.5
1.8
-.5

-.5
2.5
-.3
.7
-.2

.3
-.8
.9
.7
.7

.3
-.7
1.2
.3
.0

.5
-.4
1.3
.2
.1

-.6
-.2
.7
.3
.0

.2
-.3
1.3
.4
-.3

-.2
-.8
.9
.0
.5

-.6
-.3
1.5
-.4
.2

-1.2
-1.5
1.0
.3
-.4

-1.2
-.7
.2
.2
.6

-1.9
-.6
.2
.3
.4

-.4
-10.1
8.1
11.5
-.5

2.2
-3.1
11.6
4.8
2.1

-1.1
-4.7
13.9
2.1
.7

-11.9
-9.9
10.7
1.3
1.7

.0
-6.7
3.6
8.4
1.3

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

1.3
-.8
-.2
.8
-.3

-.5
1.5
.3
-1.1
1.4

-.4
.2
.2
.0
.3

.4
.4
.6
.0
-.2

.1
.5
-.2
-.8
.1

-.2
.5
-.1
.1
.2

-.2
.6
.1
-1.3
-.2

.5
.4
.1
.8
.2

.2
.5
.3
-.3
-.1

.4
1.4
.5
-.3
-.8

.4
.5
.3
.0
-1.3

.8
.4
.4
.2
-.7

4.9
3.6
2.2
2.1
3.7

-.3
6.3
3.1
-3.4
2.3

.5
6.1
.8
-4.2
.1

5.0
9.3
4.2
-.9
-7.4

2.1
4.4
4.3
.3
-.1

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

-.7
-.8
.9
.3
.2

-.8
1.0
.1
.1
-.3

-.8
.9
.0
.9
-.2

.4
.4
.4
.5
-.4

.7
.5
-.2
.5
-.2

1.0
.0
-.3
.2
.3

.4
.7
.3
.2
-.9

-.1
-.4
-.4
.6
.9

1.1
-.1
.8
.0
.5

-.1
.4
.5
.7
-.6

-.4
.4
.4
.6
-.1

-.3
-.2
.6
.9
.3

-9.3
-.9
3.8
4.9
3.1

1.3
6.7
.9
6.5
-2.4

6.7
2.5
.4
3.7
.3

.8
1.6
5.3
6.7
.4

-2.6
2.5
2.5
4.4
2.5

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

-1.1
.0
.5
.1
-.3

1.1
1.2
-.1
.3
.3

-.5
.2
.1
-.1
.5

1.0
.0
.7
.0
.3

.4
.1
.2
.5
-.1

.9
.4
-1.0
-.4
.2

.1
.0
-.6
.0
-.4

.3
1.2
1.9
.7
-.7

.4
.7
-.6
-.2
.2

-.3
.6
.8
.7
-.7

.7
.5
-.3
.5
-.6

.6
.0
-.1
.3
-.7

-1.2
6.3
2.6
.4
1.5

6.4
2.9
1.9
1.1
2.7

4.5
5.5
-.4
1.2
-3.0

3.3
7.2
3.1
5.1
-5.5

1.6
4.8
3.4
1.4
1.3

2001
2002
2003

-.7
.6
.5

-.5
.1
-.1

-.5
.2
-.3

-.3
.2
-.8

-.5
.3
.1

-.6
.4
.2

.1
.4
.1

-.6
.0

-.6
-.2

-.7
-.7

-.4
.1

-.5
-1.0

-7.1
1.1
-1.2

-4.9
2.8
-3.5

-3.8
2.6

-6.5
-4.4

-4.9
-1.2

IP (1997=100)
2001
2002
2003

103.4
99.1
99.3

102.9
99.2
99.2

102.4
99.4
98.9

102.1
99.5
98.1

101.7
99.9
98.2

101.1
100.2
98.5

101.2
100.6
98.6

100.6
100.6

100.1
100.4

99.4
99.7

99.0
99.8

98.5
98.8

102.9
99.2
99.1

101.6
99.9
98.2

100.6
100.5

98.9
99.4

101.0
99.8

Capacity
(percent of
1997 output)
2001
2002
2003

132.4
132.7
132.6

132.5
132.7
132.6

132.5
132.6
132.6

132.6
132.6
132.7

132.6
132.6
132.7

132.7
132.6
132.7

132.7
132.6
132.7

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.5
132.7
132.6

132.6
132.6
132.7

132.7
132.6

132.7
132.6

132.6
132.6

Utilization
(percent)
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

78.0
71.3
69.8
77.8
78.6

77.5
73.0
69.7
78.3
78.3

77.6
72.3
70.3
78.8
78.8

77.7
71.8
71.2
79.0
78.6

78.0
71.4
72.1
79.0
78.6

77.5
71.2
72.6
79.2
78.5

77.5
70.9
73.6
79.4
78.2

77.3
70.3
74.2
79.3
78.4

76.7
70.1
75.4
78.8
78.5

75.6
69.0
76.2
79.0
78.1

74.6
68.6
76.3
79.0
78.5

73.1
68.1
76.5
79.1
78.7

77.7
72.2
69.9
78.3
78.5

77.7
71.4
72.0
79.0
78.6

77.1
70.4
74.4
79.1
78.4

74.4
68.6
76.3
79.0
78.4

76.8
70.7
73.2
78.9
78.5

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

79.6
79.1
83.6
86.1
81.8

79.1
80.2
83.8
85.0
82.8

78.7
80.2
84.0
84.9
83.0

78.9
80.5
84.6
84.8
82.7

78.9
80.8
84.4
83.9
82.6

78.7
81.1
84.3
83.9
82.6

78.5
81.5
84.4
82.6
82.3

78.8
81.7
84.5
83.2
82.3

78.9
82.0
84.7
82.7
82.1

79.1
83.1
85.0
82.3
81.3

79.3
83.5
85.2
82.1
80.2

79.9
83.8
85.5
82.1
79.5

79.1
79.9
83.8
85.3
82.6

78.9
80.8
84.4
84.2
82.6

78.7
81.8
84.5
82.8
82.3

79.4
83.5
85.2
82.2
80.3

79.0
81.5
84.5
83.6
81.9

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

78.8
77.7
80.2
81.0
84.0

78.1
78.4
80.1
81.0
83.6

77.3
79.0
80.0
81.7
83.2

77.5
79.2
80.2
82.0
82.7

77.9
79.5
80.0
82.3
82.4

78.6
79.5
79.7
82.3
82.4

78.8
80.0
79.8
82.4
81.5

78.6
79.6
79.5
82.8
82.0

79.4
79.4
80.0
82.7
82.2

79.2
79.6
80.3
83.1
81.5

78.8
79.8
80.5
83.4
81.3

78.5
79.5
80.8
84.0
81.3

78.1
78.4
80.1
81.2
83.6

78.0
79.4
80.0
82.2
82.5

79.0
79.6
79.8
82.6
81.9

78.9
79.6
80.5
83.5
81.4

78.5
79.3
80.1
82.4
82.3

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

80.3
81.8
83.1
81.3
81.2

81.0
82.6
82.7
81.4
81.3

80.4
82.6
82.5
81.2
81.5

81.0
82.3
82.8
81.0
81.7

81.1
82.1
82.8
81.3
81.5

81.7
82.2
81.7
80.8
81.5

81.5
81.9
81.0
80.6
81.1

81.6
82.6
82.4
81.1
80.4

81.8
82.9
81.7
80.8
80.5

81.4
83.1
82.1
81.2
79.9

81.8
83.2
81.7
81.5
79.3

82.1
82.9
81.4
81.6
78.7

80.5
82.3
82.8
81.3
81.3

81.2
82.2
82.4
81.0
81.6

81.6
82.5
81.7
80.8
80.7

81.7
83.1
81.7
81.4
79.3

81.3
82.5
82.2
81.1
80.7

2001
2002
2003

78.1
74.7
74.9

77.7
74.8
74.8

77.3
74.9
74.5

77.0
75.1
73.9

76.6
75.3
74.0

76.2
75.6
74.2

76.3
75.9
74.3

75.8
75.9

75.4
75.7

74.9
75.2

74.6
75.3

74.2
74.5

77.7
74.8
74.7

76.6
75.3
74.1

75.8
75.8

74.6
75.0

76.2
75.2

1. See note on cover page.
2. Quarterly changes are at annual rates. Annual changes are calculated from annual averages.
NOTE. Selected high–technology industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components.

16

EXPLANATORY NOTE
The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release,
which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of
output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and
the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly
indexes on the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. More
detailed descriptions of industrial production, capacity utilization, and
electric power are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at
the Board’s World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown
in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to
December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board’s Web site.
Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided
as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of
Commerce’s Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please
call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes
containing historical data and the data published in this release also are
available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Publications Services, 202-452-3245.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output
of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the
reference period for the index is 1997. Manufacturing consists of those
industries included in the North American Industry Classification System,
or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and
newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have
traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the
industrial sector. For the period since 1997, the total IP index has been
constructed from 295 individual series based on the 2002 North American
Industrial Classification System (NAICS) codes. These individual series
are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry groups.
Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products are the
aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and equipment, and
nonindustrial supplies (which are inputs to nonindustrial sectors).
Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major industry
groups include three-digit NAICS industries and aggregates of these
industries—for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining,
and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures,
including details regarding series classification, relative importance
weights, and data sources, is available on the Board’s web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html) . Changes in
output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and
the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special
aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of
several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are
summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of
the statistical tables, see below.
Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial
production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output
measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production
process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as
tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations
and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate
monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a
few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output
(calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a
corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the
high-technology grouping and include computers, communications
equipment, and semiconductors. When suitable data on physical product
are not available, estimates of output are based on either
production-worker hours or electric power use by industry. Data on hours
worked by production workers are collected in the monthly establishment
survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data on electric
power use are described below. The factors used to convert inputs into
estimates of production are based on historical relationships between the
inputs and the comprehensive annual data used to benchmark the IP
indexes; these factors also may be influenced by technological or cyclical
developments. The annual data used in benchmarking the individual IP
indexes are constructed from a variety of source data, such as the
quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries and the

17

Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by the Bureau of the Census;
the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United States Geological Survey
of the Department of the Interior; and publications of the Department of
Energy.
Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for
the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed
discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin
February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the
output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from
their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP
index, which extends back to 1919, is built as a chain-type index since
1972. The current formula for the growth in monthly IP (or any of the
sub-aggregates) since 1972 is the geometric mean of the change in output
(I), and, as can be seen below, is computed using the unit value added
estimate for the current month (pm ) and the estimate for previous month:
IA
m
+
A
I
m–1

ȍ
Ǹȍ

Imp m–1

Im–1p m–1

ȍ Imp m
ȍ Im–1p m

The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant
tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries’ relative
contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the
relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is
about 5 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month,
then this gain would boost growth in total IP by ½ percentage point (0.05
x 10% = 0.5%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve’s
web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact
proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to
the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/
releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa
).
Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the
15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the
superscript “p” in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent
three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are
denoted by the superscript “r” in tables.) For the first estimate of output
for a given month, about 55 percent of the source data (in value-added
terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about
84 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published,
95 percent in the third month, and 96 percent in the fourth month. Data
availability by data type is summarized in the table below:
Availability of Monthly IP Data in Publication Window
(Percent of value added in 2002)
Month of estimate
Type of data

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Physical product

24

34

46

46

Production-worker
hours

31

31

31

31

Electric power use

0

19

19

19

IP data received

55

84

95

96

IP data estimated

45

16

5

4

NOTE––The physical product group includes series based on either
monthly or quarterly data. As can be seen in the first line of the table, in
the first month, a physical product indicator is available for about half of
the series (in terms of value added) that ultimately are based on physical
product data (24 percent out of total of 46 percent). Of the 24 percent,
about two–thirds (15 percent of total IP) include series that are derived
from weekly physical product data and for which actual monthly data may
lag up to several months. On average, quarterly product data are received
for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, quarterly data
are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the
third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of
the first month of a quarter. About 4 percent of the source data for
monthly IP––all physical product measures––are available too late for
direct inclusion in the current index and are incorporated at the time of an
annual historical revision.

Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using
Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the
current seasonal factors were estimated with data through October 2002;
for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June
2002. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business
cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1972, all seasonally adjusted
aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted
indexes of the individual series.
Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without
regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.28 percent
during the 1987–2001 period. The average revision to the percent change
in total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was
0.22 percentage point during the 1987–2001 period. In most cases (about
84 percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first
estimate for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth
estimate.
Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded
indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the
rounded indexes shown in the release.
CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity
and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and
electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate
is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity
index. The Federal Reserve Board’s capacity indexes attempt to capture
the concept of sustainable maximum output—the greatest level of output a
plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after
factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of
inputs to operate the capital in place.
Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 85 detailed industries (67
in manufacturing, 16 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly
correspond to industries at the three- and four-digit NAICS level.
Estimates of capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups,
including durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing,
mining, utilities, and total industry. Manufacturing consists of those
industries included in the North American Industry Classification System,
or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and
newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have
traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the
industrial sector. Also, special aggregates are available, such as high-tech
industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries.
Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be
consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically
available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct
monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the
Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source
data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources
(primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of
Energy’s Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are
available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper,
industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for
electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 18 percent of
total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for
manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the
Bureau of the Census’s Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries
account for a bit less than 78 percent of total industry capacity. In the
absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity
is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total
industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to
construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board’s web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap_notes.html).
Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated
in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis
through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of
individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived
from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the
monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher
index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the

18

individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent
monthly production index by the related capacity index.
Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be
consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about
the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the
Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of
capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the
movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based
utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was
the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This
was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher
utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC
(currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen
years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry
utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line
with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates
reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in
the SPC.
Perspective. Over the 1972–2001 period, the average total industry
utilization rate is 81.5 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory
operating rate has been 80.4 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at
capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the
broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and
total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in
wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 7 are
specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month.
ELECTRIC POWER
Coverage. Electric power data for sales by utilities to industry users and
for electric power produced by cogenerators (manufacturing and mining
firms that produce electricity for their own use or to sell to a utility) are
generally collected at the 4-digit NAICS and 3-digit SIC level for mining
and manufacturing. Aggregates for 3-digit industries, as well as for total
mining, durable, nondurable, total manufacturing and total industrial
electric power use, are computed. Manufacturing consists of those
industries included in the North American Industry Classification System,
or NAICS, definition of manufacturing plus those industries–logging and
newspaper, periodical, book and directory publishing–that have
traditionally been considered to be manufacturing and included in the
industrial sector. An aggregate showing total industry excluding nuclear
nondefense is shown separately because the value-added proportion for
the nondefense nuclear material series (part of NAICS 3251) in total IP is
considerably less than its share of total electric power use. In addition,
aggregates for utility sales to industrial users and industry generation are
computed. While only the major aggregates are shown in the release, data
for the 3- and 4-digit industries are available on the Board’s web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17).
Source Data. Electric power data are collected from a sample of utilities
and cogenerators covering all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. The
primary criterion for inclusion of a utility in the panel is whether the utility
provides electric power to industrial customers. A comparison of Federal
Reserve kilowatt-hour aggregates to estimates from the 1997 Census of
Manufactures (the most recent available) and recent reporting panel
statistics suggests the Federal Reserve data cover about 50 percent of the
overall sales to manufacturing in that year. The cogeneration panel covers
about 50 percent of cogeneration used directly by manufacturers. In order
to provide more complete coverage and correct for any shortcomings of
the survey, the series are benchmarked at the 4-digit industry level to the
latest available data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the
Census of Manufactures.
Methodology. The data we receive from utilities and cogenerators are
edited for anomalies and aggregated, using self weights, to the 4-digit
NAICS industry levels and above. Where reports are late or unavailable
for some reason, responses are estimated.
Seasonal Adjustment. Series are seasonal adjusted at the 4-digit NAICS
level, with seasonally-adjusted aggregates typically computed as sums of
seasonally adjusted components. The seasonal adjustment procedure
(Census X-12 program) is used without trading-day adjustments because

the reporting periods of the various utilities are not the same. A leap year
adjustment is also made where appropriate.
REFERENCES AND RELEASE DATES
References. The annual revision published in early December 2002 will
be described in an article published in an upcoming Federal Reserve
Bulletin. A description of the aggregation methods for industrial
production and capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal
Reserve Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67–92. The Federal
Reserve methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital
is detailed in “Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries:
Methods and Data” by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can
be obtained at
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital_stock_doc-latest.pdf.
Industrial Production—1986 Edition contains a more detailed description

of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus
a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The
major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have
been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990,
June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997,
February 1998, January 1999, March 2000, March 2001, March 2002).
Release Schedule
At 9:15 a.m. on
2003: January 17, February 14, March 14, April 15, May 15, June 17,
July 16, August 15, September 15, October 16, November 14, and
December 16.
2004: January 16, February 17, March 15, April 16, May 14, June 16,
July 15, August 17, September 15, October 15, November 17, and
December 14.

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