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Accessible Version Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on November 3-4, 2009. FOMC Minutes | Summary of Economic Projections Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2009-12 and over the longer run Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2009 through 2012 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2004 through 2008. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. Change in real GDP Percent 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Actual Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range 3.1 - 2.7 - 2.4 - 2.5 - -1.9 - 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 4.0 3.5 2.5 2.0 4.6 4.5 3.4 2.5 5.0 4.8 3.5 2.8 Longer Run 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.4 Unemployment rate Percent 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Actual Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range 5.4 - 4.9 - 4.4 - 4.8 - 6.9 - 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.8 10.2 9.7 9.3 8.6 8.7 8.6 8.2 7.2 7.6 7.5 6.8 6.1 Longer Run 6.3 5.2 5.0 4.8 PCE inflation Percent 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Actual 3.0 Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency - 3.3 - 1.9 - 3.6 - 1.7 - 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.6 2.4 1.9 2.3 1.9 Longer Run 2.0 2.0 Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.2 0.2 1.7 1.5 Core PCE inflation Percent 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Actual 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.0 - - - - Upper End of Range Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.5 2.4 1.6 2.3 1.7 Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 Lower End of Range - - - - 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 - Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2009-12 and over the longer run Histograms, five panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Number of Participants 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run Percent June November June November June November November June range November projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections -1.6 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.2 -1.1 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.0 -0.9 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.8 -0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.6 -0.5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.4 -0.3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.2 -0.1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 - 0.1 0.2 - 0.3 0.4 - 0.5 0.6 - 0.7 0.8 - 0.9 1.0 - 1.1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.2 - 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 - 1.5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 - 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.8 - 1.9 0 2.0 - 2.1 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.2 - 2.3 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 2.4 - 2.5 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 8 11 2.6 - 2.7 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 3 2.8 - 2.9 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 5 3 3.0 - 3.1 0 3.2 - 3.3 0 0 0 4 0 2 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 3.4 - 3.5 0 0 4 0 1 0 3 0 0 3.6 - 3.7 3.8 - 3.9 4.0 - 4.1 4.2 - 4.3 4.4 - 4.5 4.6 - 4.7 4.8 - 4.9 5.0 - 5.1 5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 7 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 5 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 4 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2009-12 and over the longer run Histograms, five panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Percent range 4.4 - 4.5 4.6 - 4.7 4.8 - 4.9 5.0 - 5.1 5.2 - 5.3 5.4 - 5.5 5.6 - 5.7 5.8 - 5.9 6.0 - 6.1 6.2 - 6.3 Number of Participants 2009 2010 2011 November June November June November June projections projections projections projections projections projections 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2012 November projections 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Longer Run November June projections projections 0 1 0 0 1 3 11 10 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 6.6 - 6.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 7.0 - 7.1 0 7.2 - 7.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 7.4 - 7.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 7.6 - 7.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7.8 - 7.9 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 8.0 - 8.1 0 8.2 - 8.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.4 - 8.5 0 0 0 1 3 4 0 0 0 8.6 - 8.7 0 0 1 0 5 6 0 0 0 8.8 - 8.9 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 9.0 - 9.1 9.2 - 9.3 9.4 - 9.5 9.6 - 9.7 9.8 - 9.9 10.0 10.1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 1 5 0 3 6 5 1 0 1 3 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.2 10.3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 10.4 10.5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.6 10.7 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2009-12 and over the longer run Histograms, five panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Percent range 0.1 - 0.2 0.3 - 0.4 0.5 - 0.6 0.7 - 0.8 0.9 - 1.0 1.1 - 1.2 1.3 - 1.4 Number of Participants 2009 2010 2011 November June November June November June projections projections projections projections projections projections 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 2 3 2 12 4 3 3 1 3 0 5 7 4 2 0 2012 November projections 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 Longer Run November June projections projections 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.5 - 1.6 1 2 4 4 4 6 5 3 3 1.7 - 1.8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1.9 - 2.0 0 0 2 3 4 2 4 12 11 2.1 - 2.2 0 2.3 - 2.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2.5 - 2.6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2009-12 Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1. Percent range 0.1 - 0.2 0.3 - 0.4 0.5 - 0.6 0.7 - 0.8 0.9 - 1.0 1.1 - 1.2 1.3 - 1.4 1.5 - 1.6 1.7 - 1.8 1.9 - 2.0 2.1 - 2.2 2.3 - 2.4 2.5 - 2.6 Number of Participants 2009 2010 2011 November June November June November June projections projections projections projections projections projections 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 4 4 6 4 0 1 7 2 1 2 12 8 2 4 1 0 5 5 2 2 5 4 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Return to top 2012 November projections 1 0 0 0 3 2 1 4 3 2 0 1 0
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