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Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on November 3-4,
2009.
FOMC Minutes | Summary of Economic Projections

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic
projections, 2009-12 and over the longer run
Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2009 through 2012 and over the
longer run. Actual values for years 2004 through 2008. The data for the actual values of the
variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1.
Change in real GDP
Percent
 
Actual
Upper End of Range
Upper End of Central Tendency
Lower End of Central Tendency
Lower End of Range

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
3.1
-

2.7
-

2.4
-

2.5
-

-1.9
-

0.0
-0.1
-0.4
-0.5

4.0
3.5
2.5
2.0

4.6
4.5
3.4
2.5

5.0
4.8
3.5
2.8

Longer
Run
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.4

Unemployment rate
Percent
 
Actual
Upper End of Range
Upper End of Central Tendency
Lower End of Central Tendency
Lower End of Range

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
5.4
-

4.9
-

4.4
-

4.8
-

6.9
-

10.3
10.1
9.9
9.8

10.2
9.7
9.3
8.6

8.7
8.6
8.2
7.2

7.6
7.5
6.8
6.1

Longer
Run
6.3
5.2
5.0
4.8

PCE inflation
Percent
 

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Actual
3.0
Upper End of Range
Upper End of Central Tendency -

3.3
-

1.9
-

3.6
-

1.7
-

1.7
1.2

2.0
1.6

2.4
1.9

2.3
1.9

Longer
Run
2.0
2.0

Lower End of Central Tendency Lower End of Range
-

-

-

-

-

1.1
1.0

1.3
1.1

1.0
0.6

1.2
0.2

1.7
1.5

Core PCE inflation
Percent
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

 
Actual

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.0

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range
Upper End of Central Tendency -

-

-

-

-

1.6
1.5

2.0
1.5

2.4
1.6

2.3
1.7

Lower End of Central Tendency -

-

-

-

-

1.4

1.0

1.0

1.0

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

1.3

0.9

0.5

0.2

-

Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the
change in real GDP, 2009-12 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.
Number of Participants
2009
2010
2011
2012
Longer Run
Percent 
June
November
June
November
June
November November
June
range November
projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections projections
-1.6 0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1.5
-1.4 -1.3

0

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-1.2 -1.1

0

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-1.0 -0.9

0

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-0.8 -0.7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-0.6 -0.5

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-0.4 -0.3

6

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-0.2 -0.1

7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.0 - 0.1
0.2 - 0.3
0.4 - 0.5
0.6 - 0.7
0.8 - 0.9
1.0 - 1.1

2
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
1
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0

1.2 - 1.3 0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1.4 - 1.5 0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1.6 - 1.7 0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1.8 - 1.9 0
2.0 - 2.1 0

0
0

0
2

0
2

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

2.2 - 2.3 0

0

0

2

0

1

0

0

0

2.4 - 2.5 0

0

3

1

1

0

0

8

11

2.6 - 2.7 0

0

0

0

0

1

0

3

3

2.8 - 2.9 0

0

1

3

0

0

1

5

3

3.0 - 3.1 0
3.2 - 3.3 0

0
0

4
0

2
4

1
1

0
0

1
0

1
0

0
0

3.4 - 3.5 0

0

4

0

1

0

3

0

0

3.6 - 3.7
3.8 - 3.9
4.0 - 4.1
4.2 - 4.3
4.4 - 4.5
4.6 - 4.7
4.8 - 4.9
5.0 - 5.1
5.2 - 5.3

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
1
3
1
7
1
0
0
0

1
2
2
1
5
2
1
1
0

1
0
2
0
4
0
3
2
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the
unemployment rate, 2009-12 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Percent 
range
4.4 - 4.5
4.6 - 4.7
4.8 - 4.9
5.0 - 5.1
5.2 - 5.3
5.4 - 5.5
5.6 - 5.7
5.8 - 5.9
6.0 - 6.1
6.2 - 6.3

Number of Participants
2009
2010
2011
November
June
November
June
November
June
projections projections projections projections projections projections
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

6.4 - 6.5 0

0

0

0

0

0

2012
November
projections
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0

Longer Run
November
June
projections projections
0
1
0
0
1
3
11
10
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0

2

0

0

6.6 - 6.7 0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

6.8 - 6.9 0

0

0

0

0

1

2

0

0

7.0 - 7.1 0
7.2 - 7.3 0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
1

0
0

4
3

0
0

0
0

7.4 - 7.5 0

0

0

0

0

0

4

0

0

7.6 - 7.7 0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

7.8 - 7.9 0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

8.0 - 8.1 0
8.2 - 8.3 0

0
0

0
0

0
0

1
6

2
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

8.4 - 8.5 0

0

0

1

3

4

0

0

0

8.6 - 8.7 0

0

1

0

5

6

0

0

0

8.8 - 8.9 0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

9.0 - 9.1
9.2 - 9.3
9.4 - 9.5
9.6 - 9.7
9.8 - 9.9
10.0 10.1

0
0
0
0
4

0
0
0
1
5

0
3
6
5
1

0
1
3
6
4

0
0
0
0
0

1
2
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

11

9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

10.2 10.3

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

10.4 10.5

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

10.6 10.7

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE
inflation, 2009-12 and over the longer run
Histograms, five panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Percent 
range
0.1 - 0.2
0.3 - 0.4
0.5 - 0.6
0.7 - 0.8
0.9 - 1.0
1.1 - 1.2
1.3 - 1.4

Number of Participants
2009
2010
2011
November
June
November
June
November
June
projections projections projections projections projections projections
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
5
0
2
3
2
12
4
3
3
1
3
0
5
7
4
2
0

2012
November
projections
1
0
0
0
2
1
2

Longer Run
November
June
projections projections
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1.5 - 1.6 1

2

4

4

4

6

5

3

3

1.7 - 1.8 1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

1.9 - 2.0 0

0

2

3

4

2

4

12

11

2.1 - 2.2 0
2.3 - 2.4 0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
1

1
0

0
1

0
0

1
0

2.5 - 2.6 0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core
PCE inflation, 2009-12
Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Percent 
range
0.1 - 0.2
0.3 - 0.4
0.5 - 0.6
0.7 - 0.8
0.9 - 1.0
1.1 - 1.2
1.3 - 1.4
1.5 - 1.6
1.7 - 1.8
1.9 - 2.0
2.1 - 2.2
2.3 - 2.4
2.5 - 2.6

Number of Participants
2009
2010
2011
November
June
November
June
November
June
projections projections projections projections projections projections
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
0
4
4
6
4
0
1
7
2
1
2
12
8
2
4
1
0
5
5
2
2
5
4
0
1
0
0
0
2
0
2
2
2
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1

Return to top

2012
November
projections
1
0
0
0
3
2
1
4
3
2
0
1
0