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Accessible Material
June 2008 Bluebook and Greenbook Tables and Charts
Table of Contents
Document Section

Accessible Material

Bluebook
Recent Developments

FOMC20080625bluebook20080619_1.htm

Monetary Policy Strategies

FOMC20080625bluebook20080619_2.htm

Short-Run Policy Alternatives

FOMC20080625bluebook20080619_3.htm

Money and Debt Forecasts

FOMC20080625bluebook20080619_4.htm

Appendix A: Measures of the Equilibrium Real Rate

FOMC20080625bluebook20080619_5.htm

Greenbook Part 1
Domestic Developments

FOMC20080625gbpt120080618_1.htm

International Developments

FOMC20080625gbpt120080618_2.htm

Greenbook Part 2
Domestic Nonfinancial Developments

FOMC20080625gbpt220080618_1.htm

Domestic Financial Developments

FOMC20080625gbpt220080618_2.htm

International Developments

FOMC20080625gbpt220080618_3.htm

Greenbook Supplement
Supplemental Notes

Last update: March 7, 2014

FOMC20080625gbsup20080620_1.htm

Accessible Material
June 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts†
Recent Developments
Chart 1
Interest Rate Developments
Note. Last observation is for Jun. 19, 2008.

Figure: Probability density for target funds rate after the June meeting
A bar chart shows two series, "Futures market"*, and "Desk's survey"** in terms of values that are 1.75, 2.00 and 2.25. Unit is percent.

The "Futures market" series for the value of 1.75 is at about 7 percent, for the value of 2.00 is at about 80 percent and for the value of 2.25 is at about 12.5
percent.

The "Desk's survey" series for the value of 1.75 is at about 5 percent, for the value of 2.00 is at about 86 percent and for the value of 2.25 is at about 8 percent
respectively.
* Derived from options on federal funds futures.  Return to text
** Survey of primary dealer economists on June 17, 2008.  Return to text

Figure: Expected federal funds rates*
A line chart shows two series, "April 29, 2008", and "June 19, 2008" from 2008:Q2 through 2010:Q3. Unit is percent.

The ""April 29, 2008" series begins at about 2.0 percent in 2008:Q2, decreases to about 1.9 in 2008:Q3 and then generally increases to end at about 3.35 in
2010:Q3.

The "June 19, 2008" series begins at about 2.0 percent in 2008:Q2, and generally increases to end at about 4.12 in 2010:Q3.
* Estimates from federal funds and Eurodollar futures, with an allowance for term premiums and other adjustments.  Return to text

Figure: Implied distribution of federal funds rate six months ahead*
A bar chart shows two series, "Recent: 6/19/2008", and "Last FOMC: 4/29/2008" from 0.25 to 5.25. Unit is percent.

The estimated values for the "Recent: 4/24/2008" series are as follows: (0.75: 1), (1: 1.5), (1.25: 0.75), (1.5: 2.5), (1.75: 4.9), (2: 8), (2.25: 10), (2.5: 11), (2.75:
11.5), (3: 12), (3.25: 11) (3.5: 7.5), (3.75: 6), (4: 4), (4.25: 2.5), (4.5: 2.6), (4.75: 1), (5.0: 0.5), (5.25: 0.75) and (5.5: 0.3).

The estimated values for the ""Last FOMC: 3/17/2008" series are as follows: (0.25: 1), (0.5: 1), (0.75: 2.5), (1: 4.9), (1.25: 7), (1.5: 10), (1.75: 13.5), (2: 14.5),
(2.25: 13), (2.5: 11), (2.75: 7.5), (3: 6), (3.25: 2.4) (3.5: 2.4), (3.75: 2.3), (4: 0.50), (4.25: 0.75).
* Derived from options on Eurodollar futures contracts, with term premium and other adjustments to estimate expectations for the federal funds rate.  Return to text

Figure: Implied Volatilities
A line chart shows two series, "Ten-Year Treasury (left scale)", and "Six-Month Eurodollar (right scale)"* from 2002 through 2008. The left scale ranges from 2 to
16; unit is percent. The right scale ranges from about 30 to 250; unit is basis points. Data is daily. The April 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Ten-Year Treasury" series begins at about 9.9 percent in 2002, fluctuates between about 7 and 10.8 through 2002:Q3 and decreases to about 5 in late 2002.
The series generally decreases to about 2 in mid-2003, generally increases to about 9 in 2004 and decreases to about 3.2 in early 2005. It then fluctuates between
about 3.2 and 7.5 through 2006, generally decreases to about 1.5 in 2007:Q2, and peaks to about 15 in 2007:Q3. The series decreases to about 6, around the
time of the April 2008, FOMC meeting and then increases to end at about 11.5 in June 2008.

The ""Six-Month Eurodollar" series begins at about 160 basis points in 2002, fluctuates between about 110 and 170 through late 2003, and generally decreases to
about 75 by mid-2007. It then generally increases to about 170 shortly before the April 2008, FOMC meeting and decreases to about 125 around the time of the
meeting. The series increases to about 155 briefly after, and then decreases to end at about 135 in June 2008.
* Width of a 90 percent confidence interval computed from the term structures for the expected federal funds rate and implied volatility.  Return to text

Figure: Nominal Treasury yields*
A line chart shows two series, "Ten-year", and "Two-year" from 2006 through June 19, 2008. The April 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Ten-year" series begins at about 4.5 percent, fluctuates between about 4.5 and 5.3 through 2007:Q2, decreases to about 3.5 in 2008:Q1, and increases to
about 4, around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting. It then continues to increases and ends at about 4.4 percent on June 19, 2008.

The "Two-year" series begins at about 4.5 percent, fluctuates between about 4.5 and 5.3 through 2007:Q2, decreases to about 1.5 in 2008:Q1, and increases to
about 2.3, around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting. It then continues to increase and ends at about 3 percent on June 19, 2008.
* Par yields from a smoothed nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve.  Return to text

Figure: Inflation compensation and oil prices*
A line chart shows three series, "Spot WTI (left scale)", "Next five years (right scale)", and "Five-to-ten year forward (right scale)" from 2006 through June 19,
2008. The left scale ranges from 40 to 150; unit is dollars per barrel. The right scale ranges from 1.5 to 4.0; unit is percent. Data is daily. The April 2008, FOMC
meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Spot WTI" series begins at about $60 per barrel in 2006, generally increases to about 75 in 2006:Q3, generally decreases to about 50 in 2007:Q1, and then
generally increases to about 116 around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting. It then continues to increase and ends at about 135 on June 19, 2008.

The "Next five years" series begins at about 2.5 in 2006, generally increases to about 2.6 in 2006:Q3, generally decreases to about 2.25 in 2006:Q4, and
fluctuates between about 2.0 and 2.4 through 2007. It then decreases to about 1.75 in 2008:Q1, and increases to about 2.0 around the time of April 2008, FOMC
meeting. The series continues to increase and ends at about 2.5 on June 19, 2008.

The "Five-to-ten year forward" series begins at about 2.5 in 2006, generally increases to about 2.8 in 2006:Q2, it generally decreases to about 2.4 in 2007:Q2, and
generally increases to about 3.2 in 2008:Q1. It then decreases to about 2.75, around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting, increases to about 3.9 shortly after,
and decreases to end at about 2.75 on June 19, 2008.
* Estimates based on smoothed nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yield curves and adjusted for the indexation-lag (carry) effect.  Return to text

[Box:] Oil Prices and Inflation Compensation
Figure: Response of Inflation Compensation to a 10 Percent Oil Price Shock
For each horizon, the chart plots a bar, plus two horizontal dashed lines that denote the 95 percent confidence interval for that coefficient. Unit is basis points. For
the 3 year horizon, the plotted value is about 11 basis points, and the confidence interval is about 10-12.5 basis points. For the 4-6 year horizon, the plotted value
is about 2.5, and the confidence interval is about 1.5-3.5. For the 7-9 year horizon, the plotted value is about 2, and the confidence interval is about 1-3.

Figure: Response of Inflation Compensation to a 10 Percent Oil Price Shock
A bar chart plots three series, "2004-2005", "2006-2007", and "2008" for each horizon: "3 year", "4-6 year", and "7-9 year". Unit is basis points. For the 3 year
horizon, the plotted values are about 7.5 for 2004-2005, 13 for 2006-2007, and 16 for 2008. For the 4-6 year horizon, the plotted values are about 2 for 20042005, 2.25 for 2006-2007, and 4.5 for 2008. For the 7-9 year horizon, the plotted values are about 1.5 for 2004-2005, 2 for 2006-2007, and 2.1 for 2008.

[Box:] Deriving probability densities for inflation from inflation caps
Figure: Risk-neutral probability density for inflation in five years
A line chart shows three bell-shaped curves, "January FOMC", "April FOMC", and "June 16" over an annual CPI inflation from -3 through 9 percent. Unit is years.

The January FOMC series begins at about -3 percent at 0 years, increases to about 0 at 5 years, about 0.8 at 10 years, about 1.4 at 15 years, and about 2.3 at

20 years. It then decreases to about 3.5 at 15 years, about 4 at 10 years, about 4.8 at 5 years, and about 7 at 0 years.

The April FOMC series begins at about -3 percent at 0 years, increases to about -0.2 at 5 years, about 0.8 at 10 years, about 1.6 at 15 years, and about 2.3 at 17
years. It then decreases to about 3.2 at 15 years, about 4.2 at 10 years, about 5.1 at 5 years, and about 8 at 0 years.

The June 16 series begins at about -3 percent at 0 years, increases to about 0 at 5 years, about 1 at 10 years, about 2.3 at 15 years. It then decreases to about
4.4 at 10 years, about 5.5 at 5 years, and about 8 at 0 years.

Chart 2
Asset Market Developments
Note. Last observation is for Jun. 19, 2008.

Figure: Spreads of Libor over OIS
A line chart shows two series, "1-month", and "3-month" from January 2007 through June 19, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The April 2008, FOMC
meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "1-month" series begins at about 5 basis points in January 2007, stays about the same through July 2007, increases to about 95 in September 2007, and
decreases to about 19 in October 2007. It increases to about 110 in December 2007, decreases to about 10 in January 2008, and generally increases to about 80,
around the time of the April 2008, FOMC meeting. The series then decreases to about 40 in May 2008, and increases to end at about 45 on June 19, 2008.

The "3-month" series begins at about 7 basis points in January 2007, stays about the same through July 2007, increases to about 95 in September 2007, and
decreases to about 43 in October 2007. It increases to about 105 in December 2007, decreases to about 30 in January 2008, and generally increases to about 81,
around the time of the April 2008, FOMC meeting. The series then decreases to about 65 in May 2008, and increases to end at about 70 on June 19, 2008.
Note. Libor quotes are taken at 6:00 am, and OIS quotes are observed at the close of business of the previous trading day.

Figure: Spreads on thirty-day commercial paper
A line chart shows two series, "ABCP", and "A2/P2" from January 2007 through June 19, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The April 2008, FOMC meeting
is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "ABCP" series begins at about 0 in January 2007, fluctuates between about 0 and 10 through July, increases to about 127 in September, and decreases to
about 20 in October 2007. It increases to about 195 in December 2007, decreases to about 25 in January 2008, and generally increases to about 95 around the
time of the April 2008, FOMC meeting. The series then generally decreases and ends at about 50 on June 19, 2008.

The "A2/P2" series begins at about 10 in January 2007, fluctuates between about 5 and 10 through July, increases to about 95 in September, and decreases to
about 30 in November 2007. It increases to about 150 in December 2007, decreases to about 40 in January 2008, and generally increases to about 100 around
the time of the April 2008, FOMC meeting. The series then generally decreases and ends at about 70 on June 19, 2008.
Note. The ABCP spread is the AA ABCP rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate. The A2/P2 spread is the A2/P2 nonfinancial rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate.

Figure: Overnight repo rates
A line chart plots three series, "Target federal funds rate", "Treasury", and "MBS" from January 2007 through June 19, 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent. The April
2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Target federal funds rate" series begins at about 5.2 percent in January 2007, stays about the same through September, decreases to about 4.8 in October,
about 4.5 in November, and about 4.2 in December 2007. It continues to decreases to about 3.5 in January 2008, about 3 in February, about 2.2 in March and
around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting. The series decreases to about 2 in May 2008, and ends at about the same on June 19, 2008.

The "Treasury" series begins at about 4.9 percent in January 2007, increases to about 5.2 shortly after and stays about the same through July, it decreases to
about 2.2 in August and increases back to about 5.2 in September 2007. The series then generally decreases to about 0.3 in March 2008, increases to about 2
around the time of the April 2008, FOMC meeting, and ends at about 2.1 on June 19, 2008.

The "MBS" series begins at about 5.2 percent in January 2007, stays about the same through August, and generally decreases to about 2, around the time of April
2008, FOMC meeting. The series ends at about 2.1 on June 19, 2008.

Source. Bloomberg

Figure: CDS spreads at selected financial institutions
A line chart shows two series, "Banks"*, and "Broker/dealers"**, from January 2007 through June 19, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The April 2008,
FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Banks"* series begins at about 10 in January 2007, stays about the same through June 2007, generally increases to about 125 in March 2008, and
decreases to about 75, around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting. The series decreases briefly after the meeting, to about 60 in May, and then increases to
end at about 80 on June 19, 2008.

The "Broker/dealers"** series begins at about 15 in January 2007, stays about the same through June 2007, generally increases to about 240 in March 2008, and
generally decreases to about 75, around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting. The series increases briefly after the meeting, to about 100, and then decreases to
end at about 95 on June 19, 2008.
* Median spread of 24 banking organizations.  Return to text
** Median spread of 10 broker-dealers.  Return to text

Figure: Equity Prices
A line chart shows two series, "Wilshire", and "Dow Jones Financial", from 2002 through June 19, 2008. Data is daily; unit is an Index (12/31/00=100).

The "Wilshire" series begins at about 90 in 2002, decreases to about 60 in 2002:Q4, and generally increases to about 129 in 2007:Q3 and Q4. It then decreases to
about 105 in 2008:Q1, increases to about 115, around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting, and decreases to end at about 102 on June 19, 2008.

The "Dow Jones Financial" series begins at about 92 in 2002, decreases to about 65 in 2002:Q4, and generally increases to about 140 in 2007:Q1. It then
generally decreases to about 90 in 2008:Q1, increases to about 100, around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting, and decreases to end at about 85 on June 19,
2008.

Figure: Corporate bond spreads*
A line chart shows two series, "Ten-Year BBB (left scale)", and "Ten-Year High-Yield (right scale)" from 2002 through June 19, 2008. The left scale ranges from
50 to 450 and the right scale ranges from 0 to 1000. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The April 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Ten-Year BBB" series begins at about 201 basis points in 2002, generally increases to about 320 in 2002:Q4, and generally decreases to about 100 in
2005:Q1. It generally increases to about 305 in 2008:Q1, and decreases to about 260 around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting. The series then decreases
and ends at about 260 on June 19, 2008.

The "Ten-Year High-Yield" series begins at about 550 basis points in 2002, it increases to about 600, shortly after, and then decreases to about 500 at the end of
Q1. It then generally increases to about 825 in 2002:Q4, generally decreases to about 275 in 2005:Q1. It fluctuates between about 300 and 400 through 2007:Q2,
and then generally increases to about 700 in 2008:Q1. The series decreases to about 540 around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting, and continues to
decrease briefly after the meeting to end at about 550 on June 19, 2008.
* Measured relative to an estimated off-the-run Treasury yield curve.  Return to text

[Box:] Developments in Federal Reserve Liquidity Facilities
Figure: Primary Credit
A line chart shows two series, "Total", and "Foreign", from August 2007, through June 19, 2008. Data is daily; unit is billions of dollars. The April 2008, FOMC
meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The Total series begins at about 2.4 in August 2007, increases to about 7 in September, decreases to about 1.5 in October, and generally increases to about 8 by
late December 2007. It then generally decreases to about 6 in January 2008, about 2 in February, and then generally increases to about 11.5, around the time of
April 2008, FOMC meeting. The series generally increases to about 18 in May, then decreases to about 12.6 in June, and increases to end at about 13 on June
19, 2008.

The Foreign series begins at about 1.5 in August 2007, stays about the same in September, decreases to about 0 in October, and generally increases to about 7
by late December 2007. It then generally decreases to about 0 in January 2008, stays about the same through mid-March, and then generally increases to about
9.5 early April. It decreases to about 6 by mid-April and increases to about 9.8 around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting. The series generally increases to
about 17 in late May, then decreases to about 10.5 in June, and ends at about the same on June 19, 2008.

Figure: Term Auction Facility
A line chart shows two series, "Total", and "Foreign", from August 2007, through June 19, 2008. Data is daily; unit is billions of dollars. The April 2008, FOMC
meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The Total series begins at about 0 in August 2007, stays about the same through mid-December 2007, and generally increases to about 100, around the time of
April 2008, FOMC meeting. It then generally increases and ends at about 150 on June 19, 2008.

The Foreign series begins at about 0 in August 2007, stays about the same through mid-December 2007, and generally increases to about 80, around the time of
April 2008, FOMC meeting. It then generally increases and ends at about 195 on June 19, 2008.

Figure: PDCF
A line chart shows a single series, from August 2007 through June 19, 2008. Data is daily; unit is billions of dollars. The April 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with
a vertical tripwire.

The "PDCF" series begins at about 0 in August 2007, stays about the same through mid-March, and increases to about 40 in late March. The series then
decreases to about 20, around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting, and continues to decreases to end at about 8, on June 19, 2008.

Figure: TSLF and Repo Spreads
A line chart shows two series, "MBS repo rate over Treasury GC repo rate (left scale)", and "TSLF Borrowing (right scale)" from August 2007 through June 19,
2008. The left scale ranges from 0 to 300; unit is basis points. The right scale ranges from 0 to 200; unit is billions of dollars.

The "MBS repo rate over Treasury GC repo rate" series begins at about 10 basis points in August 2007, increases to about 255 by late August, and decreases
back to about 10 in September. The series fluctuates with some volatility and increases to about 260 in early January 2008, then fluctuates widely between about
0 and 190, through March. It then decreases just below zero in early April, it is at about 0 around the April 2008, FOMC meeting and stays about the same to end
on June 19, 2008.

The "TSLF Borrowing" series begins at about 0 in August 2007, stays about the same through late March 2008, and generally increases to about 160 in April
2008. It then decreases to about 145 around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting, continues to decreases after the meeting to about 95 in early June and
increases to end at about 115 on June 19, 2008.

Chart 3
Asset Market Developments
Figure: Average bid price on most liquid leveraged loans
A line chart shows a single series, from January 2007 through June 18, 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent of par. The April 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a
vertical tripwire.

The series begins at about 98.2 in January 2007, increases to about 99 in June, decreases to about 94.8 in August, increases to about 96 in October and
generally decreases to about 86 in February 2008. It generally increases to about 88 around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting, then continues to increase and
ends at about 88.8 on June 18, 2008.
Note. Last observation is for Jun. 18, 2008.
Source. LSTA/LPC Mark-to-Market Pricing on SMi 100 index.

Figure: Municipal bond yield ratios
A line chart shows two series, "Twenty-year", and "One-year", from 2002 through June 18, 2008. Data is weekly; unit is ratio. The April 2008, FOMC meeting is
marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Twenty-year" series begins at about 0.9 in 2002, fluctuates between about 0.85 to 1.0, through 2007, increases to about 1.15 in 2008:Q1, and decreases to
about 1.0 around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting. It then decreases and ends at about 0.95 on June 12, 2008.

The "One-year" series begins at about 0.85 in 2002, generally increases to about 1.13 in late 2002, generally decreases to about 0.65 in 2004, and fluctuates

between about 0.7 and 0.8 through mid-2007. It then generally increases to about 1.75 in 2008:Q1, decreases to about 1.2 around the time of April 2008, FOMC
meeting and ends at about 0.9 on June 12, 2008.
Note. Yields over Treasury. Last observation is for Jun. 12, 2008.
Source. Bloomberg.

Figure: Mortgage rate spreads
A line chart shows two series, "FRM", and "One-Year ARM" from 2002 through June 18, 2008. Data is weekly; unit is basis points.

The "FRM" series begins at about 200 basis points in 2002, decreases to about 155 in 2002:Q2, increases to about 225 in 2002:Q4, and generally decreases to
about 149 in 2005:Q1. It then fluctuates between about 149 and 175 through mid-2007, increases to about 255 in 2008:Q1, decreases to about 225, around the
time of April 2008 FOMC meeting and ends at about the same on June 18, 2008.

The "One-Year ARM" series begins at about 300 basis points in 2002, decreases to about 230 in 2002:Q2, generally increases to about 275 in 2002:Q4, and then
generally decreases to about 40 in 2007:Q1. It then generally increases to about 375 in 2008:Q1, decreases to about 350, around the time of April 2008, FOMC
meeting and ends at about 255 on June 18, 2008.
Note. FRM spread relative to ten-year Treasury. ARM spread relative to one-year Treasury. Last weekly observation is for Jun. 18, 2008.
Source. Freddie Mac.

Figure: Growth of house prices
A line chart shows a single series, "OFHEO Purchase-Only Index", from 1996 through 2008:Q1p. Data is quarterly, s.a.a.r. Unit is percent.

The series begins at about 2.5 percent in mid-1996, generally increases to about 10 in 2005, and then generally decreases to end at about 2 (projected) in
2008:Q1.

Figure: Agency option-adjusted spreads
A line chart shows two series, "Fannie Mae", and "Ginnie Mae" from 2006 through June 18, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The April 2008, FOMC
meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Fannie Mae" series begins at about 70 basis points in 2006, generally increases to about 80 by mid-2006, and generally decreases to about 40 in 2006:Q4. It
then generally increases to about 138 in 2007:Q4, generally decreases to about 60 in early 2008, and increases to about 195, later in 2008:Q1. The series
generally decreases to about 100, around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting, and then generally increases to end at about 120 on June 18, 2008.

The "Ginnie Mae" series begins at about 30 basis points in 2006, generally increases to about 78 by mid-2006, and generally decreases to about 31 in 2006:Q4. It
then generally increases to about 100 in 2007:Q4, generally decreases to about 45 in early 2008, and increases to about 145, later in 2008:Q1. The series
generally decreases to about 85, around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting, and then generally increases to end at about 108 on June 18, 2008.
Note. Spreads over Treasury.
Source. Bloomberg. Last observation is for Jun. 18, 2008.

Figure: Ten-year investment grade CMBS spreads
A line chart shows two series, "AAA", and "BBB", from January 2007 through June 11, 2008. Data is weekly; unit is basis points. The April 2008, FOMC meeting is
marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "AAA" series begins at about 0 in January 2007, stays about the same through mid-July, and generally increases to about 300 in March 2008. It then
generally decreases to about 200, around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting, and decreases after the meeting to end at about 100 basis points, on June 11
2008.

The "BBB" series begins at about 100 basis points in January 2007, it generally increases to about 1600 by March 2008, decreases to about 1450, around the time
of April 2008, FOMC meeting and decreases after the meeting to end at about 1400 on June 11, 2008.
Note. Spreads over swaps. Last weekly observation is for Jun. 11, 2008.
Source. Morgan Stanley.

Chart 4

International Financial Indicators
Figure: Ten-year government bond yields
(nominal)
Daily
Percent

Date

UK

Germany Japan

4 January 2005

4.53

3.64

1.40

5 January 2005

4.56

3.67

1.38

6 January 2005

4.54

3.64

1.39

7 January 2005

4.51

3.60

1.40

10 January 2005

4.51

3.59

ND

11 January 2005

4.51

3.59

1.39

12 January 2005

4.53

3.61

1.37

13 January 2005

4.49

3.56

1.38

14 January 2005

4.50

3.57

1.38

17 January 2005

4.49

3.54

1.39

18 January 2005

4.55

3.56

1.36

19 January 2005

4.55

3.52

1.35

20 January 2005

4.61

3.58

1.35

21 January 2005

4.62

3.58

1.35

24 January 2005

4.59

3.55

1.35

25 January 2005

4.56

3.52

1.34

26 January 2005

4.60

3.57

1.34

27 January 2005

4.64

3.60

1.34

28 January 2005

4.59

3.55

1.31

31 January 2005

4.61

3.54

1.32

1 February 2005

4.57

3.52

1.30

2 February 2005

4.58

3.54

1.28

3 February 2005

4.61

3.56

1.31

4 February 2005

4.54

3.50

1.32

7 February 2005

4.51

3.49

1.31

8 February 2005

4.49

3.48

1.32

9 February 2005

4.51

3.45

1.37

10 February 2005

4.50

3.44

1.39

11 February 2005

4.53

3.46

ND

14 February 2005

4.57

3.49

1.44

15 February 2005

4.58

3.50

1.44

16 February 2005

4.56

3.50

1.41

17 February 2005

4.64

3.59

1.39

18 February 2005

4.69

3.66

1.40

21 February 2005

4.71

3.67

1.40

22 February 2005

4.73

3.69

1.44

23 February 2005

4.73

3.67

1.40

24 February 2005

4.75

3.70

1.39

25 February 2005

4.78

3.73

1.42

28 February 2005

4.74

3.70

1.46

1 March 2005

4.79

3.73

1.48

2 March 2005

4.84

3.78

1.48

3 March 2005

4.81

3.76

1.49

4 March 2005

4.80

3.74

1.52

7 March 2005

4.78

3.68

1.50

8 March 2005

4.83

3.70

1.50

9 March 2005

4.86

3.76

1.50

10 March 2005

4.86

3.76

1.48

11 March 2005

4.87

3.78

1.48

14 March 2005

4.86

3.78

1.50

15 March 2005

4.80

3.73

1.47

16 March 2005

4.81

3.72

1.47

17 March 2005

4.80

3.68

1.42

18 March 2005

4.83

3.71

1.42

21 March 2005

4.84

3.72

ND

22 March 2005

4.80

3.69

1.42

23 March 2005

4.82

3.72

1.41

24 March 2005

4.81

3.70

1.38

25 March 2005

4.81

3.71

1.36

28 March 2005

4.81

3.71

1.36

29 March 2005

4.79

3.70

1.36

30 March 2005

4.74

3.68

1.36

31 March 2005

4.70

3.62

1.31

1 April 2005

4.72

3.59

1.34

4 April 2005

4.72

3.60

1.33

5 April 2005

4.70

3.59

1.36

6 April 2005

4.70

3.59

1.38

7 April 2005

4.65

3.56

1.36

8 April 2005

4.69

3.58

1.36

11 April 2005

4.69

3.56

1.36

12 April 2005

4.70

3.56

1.34

13 April 2005

4.67

3.52

1.34

14 April 2005

4.66

3.53

1.34

15 April 2005

4.61

3.48

1.30

18 April 2005

4.58

3.46

1.27

19 April 2005

4.61

3.46

1.28

20 April 2005

4.59

3.46

1.26

21 April 2005

4.61

3.49

1.27

22 April 2005

4.59

3.46

1.28

25 April 2005

4.58

3.45

1.26

26 April 2005

4.56

3.43

1.25

27 April 2005

4.55

3.41

1.26

28 April 2005

4.55

3.40

1.24

29 April 2005

4.56

3.43

ND

2 May 2005

4.53

3.40

1.23

3 May 2005

4.52

3.38

ND

4 May 2005

4.55

3.42

ND

5 May 2005

4.53

3.40

1.23

6 May 2005

4.57

3.43

1.22

9 May 2005

4.57

3.43

1.28

10 May 2005

4.52

3.37

1.28

11 May 2005

4.46

3.34

1.28

12 May 2005

4.41

3.33

1.28

13 May 2005

4.37

3.31

1.28

16 May 2005

4.35

3.31

1.30

17 May 2005

4.38

3.31

1.30

18 May 2005

4.35

3.28

1.28

19 May 2005

4.35

3.34

1.27

20 May 2005

4.40

3.38

1.27

23 May 2005

4.38

3.36

1.29

24 May 2005

4.33

3.30

1.26

25 May 2005

4.33

3.30

1.23

26 May 2005

4.37

3.34

1.24

27 May 2005

4.39

3.33

1.25

30 May 2005

4.39

3.34

1.23

31 May 2005

4.33

3.29

1.25

1 June 2005

4.30

3.26

1.22

2 June 2005

4.25

3.24

1.22

3 June 2005

4.22

3.18

1.24

6 June 2005

4.28

3.22

1.24

7 June 2005

4.25

3.16

1.23

8 June 2005

4.22

3.13

1.24

9 June 2005

4.25

3.15

1.22

10 June 2005

4.27

3.15

1.22

13 June 2005

4.30

3.19

1.24

14 June 2005

4.32

3.19

1.24

15 June 2005

4.38

3.27

1.24

16 June 2005

4.42

3.34

1.31

17 June 2005

4.41

3.31

1.29

20 June 2005

4.43

3.31

1.28

21 June 2005

4.37

3.23

1.28

22 June 2005

4.27

3.15

1.26

23 June 2005

4.27

3.16

1.23

24 June 2005

4.24

3.13

1.21

27 June 2005

4.20

3.12

1.19

28 June 2005

4.23

3.15

1.21

29 June 2005

4.20

3.14

1.19

30 June 2005

4.20

3.15

1.17

1 July 2005

4.19

3.13

1.18

4 July 2005

4.22

3.17

1.22

5 July 2005

4.27

3.22

1.25

6 July 2005

4.28

3.22

1.24

7 July 2005

4.22

3.19

1.23

8 July 2005

4.21

3.17

1.21

11 July 2005

4.28

3.22

1.24

12 July 2005

4.31

3.23

1.24

13 July 2005

4.31

3.25

1.27

14 July 2005

4.34

3.27

1.25

15 July 2005

4.37

3.31

1.27

18 July 2005

4.30

3.26

1.27

19 July 2005

4.33

3.29

1.27

20 July 2005

4.33

3.29

1.27

21 July 2005

4.34

3.28

1.25

22 July 2005

4.32

3.24

1.23

25 July 2005

4.29

3.22

1.25

26 July 2005

4.32

3.25

1.26

27 July 2005

4.30

3.22

1.29

28 July 2005

4.31

3.23

1.29

29 July 2005

4.30

3.22

1.30

1 August 2005

4.35

3.28

1.34

2 August 2005

4.38

3.33

1.35

3 August 2005

4.39

3.33

1.37

4 August 2005

4.37

3.33

1.38

5 August 2005

4.41

3.37

1.38

8 August 2005

4.40

3.37

1.40

9 August 2005

4.39

3.36

1.40

10 August 2005

4.39

3.34

1.43

11 August 2005

4.40

3.34

1.49

12 August 2005

4.37

3.32

1.44

15 August 2005

4.34

3.28

ND

16 August 2005

4.33

3.26

1.46

17 August 2005

4.29

3.23

1.41

18 August 2005

4.26

3.21

1.41

19 August 2005

4.27

3.20

1.40

22 August 2005

4.28

3.21

1.46

23 August 2005

4.27

3.19

1.44

24 August 2005

4.23

3.16

1.41

25 August 2005

4.21

3.14

1.42

26 August 2005

4.21

3.14

1.40

29 August 2005

4.22

3.14

1.35

30 August 2005

4.20

3.17

1.36

31 August 2005

4.18

3.12

1.33

1 September 2005

4.14

3.08

1.32

2 September 2005

4.16

3.07

1.33

5 September 2005

4.15

3.05

1.34

6 September 2005

4.19

3.07

1.31

7 September 2005

4.19

3.08

1.32

8 September 2005

4.19

3.07

1.33

9 September 2005

4.17

3.05

1.34

12 September 2005 4.22

3.11

1.37

13 September 2005 4.21

3.11

1.37

14 September 2005 4.18

3.09

1.36

15 September 2005 4.19

3.11

1.35

16 September 2005 4.22

3.12

1.36

19 September 2005 4.24

3.11

ND

20 September 2005 4.21

3.08

1.36

21 September 2005 4.17

3.03

1.38

22 September 2005 4.17

3.03

1.36

23 September 2005 4.20

3.06

ND

26 September 2005 4.28

3.12

1.40

27 September 2005 4.27

3.11

1.41

28 September 2005 4.28

3.14

1.44

29 September 2005 4.27

3.16

1.49

30 September 2005 4.25

3.14

1.48

3 October 2005

4.29

3.18

1.50

4 October 2005

4.29

3.18

1.57

5 October 2005

4.27

3.17

1.50

6 October 2005

4.26

3.18

1.48

7 October 2005

4.27

3.19

1.51

10 October 2005

4.26

3.16

ND

11 October 2005

4.25

3.17

1.54

12 October 2005

4.30

3.21

1.53

13 October 2005

4.39

3.27

1.57

14 October 2005

4.39

3.27

1.57

17 October 2005

4.41

3.29

1.57

18 October 2005

4.40

3.29

1.55

19 October 2005

4.37

3.27

1.48

20 October 2005

4.41

3.29

1.55

21 October 2005

4.37

3.23

1.50

24 October 2005

4.36

3.24

1.49

25 October 2005

4.41

3.31

1.52

26 October 2005

4.43

3.38

1.55

27 October 2005

4.41

3.40

1.52

28 October 2005

4.36

3.41

1.51

31 October 2005

4.34

3.39

1.54

1 November 2005

4.34

3.42

1.56

2 November 2005

4.41

3.46

1.56

3 November 2005

4.44

3.47

ND

4 November 2005

4.44

3.49

1.60

7 November 2005

4.43

3.50

1.63

8 November 2005

4.43

3.49

1.60

9 November 2005

4.41

3.50

1.56

10 November 2005

4.43

3.52

1.57

11 November 2005

4.43

3.51

1.57

14 November 2005

4.41

3.50

1.52

15 November 2005

4.34

3.51

1.47

16 November 2005

4.21

3.43

1.49

17 November 2005

4.23

3.44

1.46

18 November 2005

4.27

3.54

1.46

21 November 2005

4.22

3.48

1.48

22 November 2005

4.24

3.50

1.47

23 November 2005

4.24

3.47

ND

24 November 2005

4.20

3.42

1.43

25 November 2005

4.20

3.43

1.43

28 November 2005

4.21

3.42

1.46

29 November 2005

4.21

3.42

1.44

30 November 2005

4.25

3.46

1.43

1 December 2005

4.18

3.40

1.45

2 December 2005

4.22

3.41

1.50

5 December 2005

4.26

3.42

1.56

6 December 2005

4.26

3.40

1.56

7 December 2005

4.28

3.39

1.54

8 December 2005

4.25

3.38

1.54

9 December 2005

4.33

3.44

1.56

12 December 2005

4.30

3.42

1.60

13 December 2005

4.30

3.40

1.59

14 December 2005

4.29

3.37

1.54

15 December 2005

4.29

3.38

1.50

16 December 2005

4.24

3.34

1.53

19 December 2005

4.20

3.34

1.54

20 December 2005

4.18

3.35

1.52

21 December 2005

4.21

3.40

1.55

22 December 2005

4.19

3.36

1.55

23 December 2005

4.18

3.33

ND

28 December 2005

4.12

3.30

1.52

29 December 2005

4.12

3.33

1.50

30 December 2005

4.10

3.31

1.47

2 January 2006

4.10

3.33

ND

3 January 2006

4.11

3.33

ND

4 January 2006

4.07

3.29

1.44

5 January 2006

4.07

3.27

1.43

6 January 2006

4.08

3.26

1.44

9 January 2006

4.11

3.26

ND

10 January 2006

4.14

3.29

1.43

11 January 2006

4.12

3.30

1.46

12 January 2006

4.08

3.27

1.45

13 January 2006

4.06

3.26

1.45

17 January 2006

3.99

3.27

1.43

18 January 2006

3.98

3.28

1.44

19 January 2006

4.04

3.34

1.48

20 January 2006

4.04

3.38

1.47

23 January 2006

4.02

3.38

1.44

24 January 2006

4.03

3.37

1.44

25 January 2006

4.11

3.43

1.46

26 January 2006

4.17

3.49

1.51

27 January 2006

4.20

3.48

1.55

30 January 2006

4.18

3.47

1.54

31 January 2006

4.15

3.47

1.55

1 February 2006

4.19

3.52

1.56

2 February 2006

4.20

3.51

1.56

3 February 2006

4.18

3.49

1.58

6 February 2006

4.19

3.49

1.55

7 February 2006

4.22

3.51

1.57

8 February 2006

4.22

3.50

1.56

9 February 2006

4.16

3.48

1.55

10 February 2006

4.18

3.48

1.59

13 February 2006

4.19

3.49

1.55

14 February 2006

4.16

3.50

1.59

15 February 2006

4.21

3.51

1.55

16 February 2006

4.17

3.51

1.56

17 February 2006

4.13

3.45

1.50

20 February 2006

4.12

3.44

1.51

21 February 2006

4.13

3.45

1.52

22 February 2006

4.11

3.42

1.51

23 February 2006

4.13

3.48

1.54

24 February 2006

4.17

3.49

1.59

27 February 2006

4.22

3.53

1.60

28 February 2006

4.19

3.49

1.58

1 March 2006

4.17

3.51

1.60

2 March 2006

4.23

3.57

1.64

3 March 2006

4.26

3.59

1.62

6 March 2006

4.26

3.59

1.64

7 March 2006

4.26

3.60

1.65

8 March 2006

4.29

3.64

1.60

9 March 2006

4.31

3.65

1.60

10 March 2006

4.34

3.69

1.68

13 March 2006

4.35

3.71

1.71

14 March 2006

4.31

3.65

1.68

15 March 2006

4.33

3.69

1.73

16 March 2006

4.31

3.66

1.73

17 March 2006

4.37

3.69

1.72

20 March 2006

4.34

3.66

1.74

21 March 2006

4.35

3.67

1.74

22 March 2006

4.32

3.64

1.73

23 March 2006

4.34

3.67

1.72

24 March 2006

4.33

3.63

1.74

27 March 2006

4.34

3.64

1.70

28 March 2006

4.40

3.73

1.71

29 March 2006

4.39

3.76

1.78

30 March 2006

4.39

3.79

1.79

31 March 2006

4.40

3.77

1.78

3 April 2006

4.42

3.82

1.86

4 April 2006

4.42

3.84

1.86

5 April 2006

4.39

3.85

1.84

6 April 2006

4.43

3.90

1.88

7 April 2006

4.41

3.90

1.88

10 April 2006

4.44

3.89

1.88

11 April 2006

4.45

3.88

1.89

12 April 2006

4.46

3.89

1.89

13 April 2006

4.54

3.95

1.94

14 April 2006

4.54

3.96

1.96

17 April 2006

4.54

3.96

1.97

18 April 2006

4.53

3.95

1.97

19 April 2006

4.51

3.95

1.89

20 April 2006

4.51

3.93

1.91

21 April 2006

4.55

3.95

1.92

24 April 2006

4.58

3.94

1.89

25 April 2006

4.63

3.99

1.92

26 April 2006

4.68

4.00

1.95

27 April 2006

4.65

3.97

1.99

28 April 2006

4.63

3.95

1.93

1 May 2006

4.61

3.95

1.89

2 May 2006

4.64

3.98

1.94

3 May 2006

4.67

4.01

ND

4 May 2006

4.70

4.03

ND

5 May 2006

4.68

4.00

ND

8 May 2006

4.71

4.02

1.98

9 May 2006

4.71

4.03

1.95

10 May 2006

4.69

3.99

2.00

11 May 2006

4.73

4.07

1.97

12 May 2006

4.74

4.08

1.99

15 May 2006

4.68

4.02

2.00

16 May 2006

4.62

3.98

1.96

17 May 2006

4.67

4.08

1.92

18 May 2006

4.58

4.03

1.94

19 May 2006

4.61

3.99

1.92

22 May 2006

4.56

3.92

1.83

23 May 2006

4.63

3.93

1.81

24 May 2006

4.59

3.89

1.84

25 May 2006

4.54

3.88

1.87

26 May 2006

4.55

3.88

1.87

29 May 2006

4.55

3.89

1.87

30 May 2006

4.57

3.94

1.85

31 May 2006

4.59

3.98

1.84

1 June 2006

4.64

4.00

1.93

2 June 2006

4.59

3.93

1.90

5 June 2006

4.60

3.97

1.86

6 June 2006

4.66

3.99

1.92

7 June 2006

4.64

4.01

1.88

8 June 2006

4.61

3.93

1.86

9 June 2006

4.57

3.93

1.85

12 June 2006

4.55

3.91

1.84

13 June 2006

4.52

3.87

1.78

14 June 2006

4.54

3.90

1.78

15 June 2006

4.62

3.95

1.79

16 June 2006

4.61

3.94

1.81

19 June 2006

4.67

3.98

1.83

20 June 2006

4.72

4.00

1.86

21 June 2006

4.72

4.01

1.85

22 June 2006

4.74

4.06

1.86

23 June 2006

4.75

4.08

1.87

26 June 2006

4.74

4.09

1.90

27 June 2006

4.74

4.09

1.90

28 June 2006

4.74

4.10

1.90

29 June 2006

4.72

4.07

1.91

30 June 2006

4.71

4.07

1.92

3 July 2006

4.74

4.09

1.96

4 July 2006

4.69

4.08

1.96

5 July 2006

4.72

4.14

1.98

6 July 2006

4.69

4.11

1.98

7 July 2006

4.65

4.07

1.95

10 July 2006

4.66

4.09

1.97

11 July 2006

4.63

4.05

1.97

12 July 2006

4.67

4.09

1.94

13 July 2006

4.64

4.05

1.92

14 July 2006

4.58

3.98

1.87

17 July 2006

4.62

3.99

ND

18 July 2006

4.66

4.01

1.84

19 July 2006

4.63

3.98

1.85

20 July 2006

4.63

3.98

1.82

21 July 2006

4.61

3.96

1.83

24 July 2006

4.61

3.96

1.86

25 July 2006

4.63

3.96

1.88

26 July 2006

4.66

3.98

1.87

27 July 2006

4.62

3.95

1.88

28 July 2006

4.59

3.92

1.93

31 July 2006

4.61

3.92

1.92

1 August 2006

4.62

3.93

1.92

2 August 2006

4.65

3.93

1.90

3 August 2006

4.73

3.97

1.88

4 August 2006

4.71

3.91

1.88

7 August 2006

4.67

3.91

1.84

8 August 2006

4.67

3.90

1.85

9 August 2006

4.68

3.93

1.85

10 August 2006

4.70

3.93

1.90

11 August 2006

4.75

3.98

1.85

14 August 2006

4.76

4.01

1.88

15 August 2006

4.73

3.97

1.86

16 August 2006

4.69

3.93

1.83

17 August 2006

4.66

3.92

1.83

18 August 2006

4.61

3.90

1.85

21 August 2006

4.57

3.86

1.82

22 August 2006

4.54

3.81

1.81

23 August 2006

4.55

3.83

1.80

24 August 2006

4.56

3.81

1.79

25 August 2006

4.55

3.79

1.72

28 August 2006

4.55

3.79

1.69

29 August 2006

4.57

3.83

1.71

30 August 2006

4.55

3.80

1.66

31 August 2006

4.52

3.76

1.65

1 September 2006

4.50

3.75

1.66

4 September 2006

4.53

3.75

1.69

5 September 2006

4.55

3.79

1.71

6 September 2006

4.57

3.83

1.70

7 September 2006

4.57

3.82

1.71

8 September 2006

4.54

3.79

1.73

11 September 2006 4.57

3.80

1.67

12 September 2006 4.61

3.84

1.70

13 September 2006 4.57

3.79

1.67

14 September 2006 4.57

3.79

1.67

15 September 2006 4.58

3.78

1.66

18 September 2006 4.65

3.83

ND

19 September 2006 4.62

3.78

1.69

20 September 2006 4.61

3.77

1.68

21 September 2006 4.58

3.75

1.69

22 September 2006 4.50

3.69

1.63

25 September 2006 4.45

3.66

1.61

26 September 2006 4.46

3.66

1.63

27 September 2006 4.47

3.67

1.65

28 September 2006 4.49

3.69

1.66

29 September 2006 4.52

3.71

1.67

2 October 2006

4.53

3.69

1.72

3 October 2006

4.56

3.73

1.69

4 October 2006

4.53

3.70

1.72

5 October 2006

4.52

3.71

1.73

6 October 2006

4.56

3.75

1.70

9 October 2006

4.56

3.76

ND

10 October 2006

4.61

3.81

1.72

11 October 2006

4.61

3.81

1.74

12 October 2006

4.62

3.80

1.74

13 October 2006

4.65

3.83

1.77

16 October 2006

4.64

3.83

1.78

17 October 2006

4.63

3.80

1.79

18 October 2006

4.65

3.82

1.79

19 October 2006

4.66

3.84

1.79

20 October 2006

4.69

3.84

1.79

23 October 2006

4.70

3.88

1.83

24 October 2006

4.71

3.88

1.81

25 October 2006

4.70

3.88

1.78

26 October 2006

4.66

3.86

1.74

27 October 2006

4.59

3.81

1.74

30 October 2006

4.56

3.79

1.72

31 October 2006

4.51

3.74

1.72

1 November 2006

4.51

3.71

1.71

2 November 2006

4.55

3.74

1.69

3 November 2006

4.59

3.77

ND

6 November 2006

4.61

3.79

1.75

7 November 2006

4.55

3.74

1.75

8 November 2006

4.57

3.76

1.73

9 November 2006

4.54

3.74

1.71

10 November 2006

4.52

3.71

1.70

13 November 2006

4.56

3.74

1.67

14 November 2006

4.53

3.71

1.73

15 November 2006

4.56

3.74

1.70

16 November 2006

4.57

3.75

1.70

17 November 2006

4.56

3.73

1.71

20 November 2006

4.54

3.72

1.68

21 November 2006

4.55

3.72

1.68

22 November 2006

4.55

3.72

1.67

23 November 2006

4.58

3.75

ND

24 November 2006

4.53

3.70

1.66

27 November 2006

4.57

3.72

1.67

28 November 2006

4.54

3.71

1.65

29 November 2006

4.54

3.72

1.69

30 November 2006

4.51

3.69

1.65

1 December 2006

4.47

3.66

1.60

4 December 2006

4.47

3.67

1.62

5 December 2006

4.50

3.68

1.62

6 December 2006

4.50

3.69

1.66

7 December 2006

4.53

3.71

1.67

8 December 2006

4.56

3.73

1.69

11 December 2006

4.60

3.75

1.65

12 December 2006

4.62

3.74

1.64

13 December 2006

4.64

3.75

1.61

14 December 2006

4.68

3.78

1.63

15 December 2006

4.68

3.80

1.66

18 December 2006

4.71

3.83

1.68

19 December 2006

4.73

3.86

1.63

20 December 2006

4.71

3.86

1.62

21 December 2006

4.72

3.88

1.62

22 December 2006

4.73

3.88

1.60

25 December 2006

4.73

3.88

1.60

26 December 2006

4.73

3.88

1.57

27 December 2006

4.78

3.92

1.64

28 December 2006

4.79

3.95

1.66

29 December 2006

4.74

3.95

1.68

1 January 2007

4.74

3.94

ND

2 January 2007

4.76

3.94

ND

3 January 2007

4.79

3.95

ND

4 January 2007

4.77

3.93

1.71

5 January 2007

4.80

3.98

1.71

8 January 2007

4.79

3.97

ND

9 January 2007

4.80

4.00

1.73

10 January 2007

4.81

4.02

1.75

11 January 2007

4.86

4.01

1.74

12 January 2007

4.90

4.06

1.74

15 January 2007

4.90

4.05

1.74

16 January 2007

4.89

4.04

1.74

17 January 2007

4.90

4.04

1.69

18 January 2007

4.91

4.06

1.70

19 January 2007

4.91

4.05

1.66

22 January 2007

4.89

4.02

1.65

23 January 2007

4.90

4.02

1.65

24 January 2007

4.91

4.04

1.66

25 January 2007

4.96

4.08

1.66

26 January 2007

4.99

4.09

1.69

29 January 2007

5.01

4.12

1.72

30 January 2007

4.99

4.11

1.70

31 January 2007

4.98

4.10

1.69

1 February 2007

5.00

4.09

1.71

2 February 2007

5.00

4.06

1.72

5 February 2007

4.99

4.03

ND

6 February 2007

4.98

4.03

1.75

7 February 2007

4.96

4.03

1.74

8 February 2007

4.92

4.05

1.73

9 February 2007

4.97

4.09

1.69

12 February 2007

4.99

4.11

ND

13 February 2007

4.96

4.13

1.73

14 February 2007

4.95

4.10

1.72

15 February 2007

4.86

4.04

1.73

16 February 2007

4.88

4.05

1.70

19 February 2007

4.89

4.07

1.71

20 February 2007

4.91

4.06

1.70

21 February 2007

4.89

4.05

1.69

22 February 2007

4.94

4.09

1.67

23 February 2007

4.89

4.05

1.67

26 February 2007

4.84

4.00

1.65

27 February 2007

4.80

3.96

1.64

28 February 2007

4.80

3.96

1.63

1 March 2007

4.79

3.95

1.65

2 March 2007

4.78

3.94

1.67

5 March 2007

4.75

3.92

1.63

6 March 2007

4.77

3.92

1.63

7 March 2007

4.77

3.92

1.63

8 March 2007

4.78

3.93

1.63

9 March 2007

4.82

3.96

1.61

12 March 2007

4.81

3.93

1.62

13 March 2007

4.77

3.91

1.61

14 March 2007

4.74

3.88

1.58

15 March 2007

4.79

3.91

1.59

16 March 2007

4.78

3.91

1.59

19 March 2007

4.81

3.93

1.58

20 March 2007

4.83

3.91

1.57

21 March 2007

4.83

3.93

1.59

22 March 2007

4.87

3.95

1.55

23 March 2007

4.90

4.00

1.62

26 March 2007

4.91

4.00

1.65

27 March 2007

4.94

4.02

1.64

28 March 2007

4.93

4.03

1.67

29 March 2007

4.96

4.05

1.64

30 March 2007

4.97

4.06

1.65

2 April 2007

4.98

4.07

1.65

3 April 2007

5.02

4.10

1.65

4 April 2007

4.99

4.07

1.69

5 April 2007

5.00

4.09

1.68

6 April 2007

5.00

4.10

1.67

9 April 2007

5.00

4.10

1.69

10 April 2007

5.02

4.13

1.68

11 April 2007

5.02

4.14

1.64

12 April 2007

5.06

4.18

1.67

13 April 2007

5.10

4.23

1.66

16 April 2007

5.08

4.21

1.69

17 April 2007

5.09

4.18

1.69

18 April 2007

5.04

4.15

1.70

19 April 2007

5.07

4.20

1.67

20 April 2007

5.07

4.20

1.68

23 April 2007

5.05

4.18

ND

24 April 2007

5.06

4.16

1.67

25 April 2007

5.06

4.19

1.65

26 April 2007

5.09

4.22

1.65

27 April 2007

5.12

4.22

1.62

30 April 2007

5.04

4.15

ND

1 May 2007

5.07

4.15

1.62

2 May 2007

5.10

4.21

1.63

3 May 2007

5.13

4.23

ND

4 May 2007

5.11

4.20

ND

7 May 2007

5.11

4.21

1.64

8 May 2007

5.09

4.20

1.65

9 May 2007

5.09

4.21

1.67

10 May 2007

5.10

4.21

1.65

11 May 2007

5.09

4.22

1.65

14 May 2007

5.13

4.27

1.65

15 May 2007

5.14

4.30

1.65

16 May 2007

5.13

4.30

1.65

17 May 2007

5.15

4.31

1.65

18 May 2007

5.17

4.31

1.65

21 May 2007

5.17

4.32

1.65

22 May 2007

5.17

4.34

1.64

23 May 2007

5.23

4.38

1.68

24 May 2007

5.21

4.37

1.69

25 May 2007

5.23

4.39

1.72

28 May 2007

5.23

4.39

1.72

29 May 2007

5.23

4.40

1.74

30 May 2007

5.24

4.40

1.73

31 May 2007

5.25

4.42

1.74

1 June 2007

5.29

4.46

ND

4 June 2007

5.29

4.46

1.78

5 June 2007

5.32

4.50

1.82

6 June 2007

5.28

4.46

1.83

7 June 2007

5.35

4.54

1.86

8 June 2007

5.39

4.57

1.89

11 June 2007

5.38

4.56

1.90

12 June 2007

5.45

4.61

1.92

13 June 2007

5.48

4.64

1.95

14 June 2007

5.47

4.64

1.94

15 June 2007

5.48

4.66

1.91

18 June 2007

5.49

4.66

1.88

19 June 2007

5.47

4.62

1.91

20 June 2007

5.50

4.64

1.88

21 June 2007

5.51

4.65

1.92

22 June 2007

5.52

4.65

1.89

25 June 2007

5.49

4.62

1.88

26 June 2007

5.47

4.60

1.87

27 June 2007

5.42

4.55

1.86

28 June 2007

5.43

4.57

1.90

29 June 2007

5.46

4.57

1.86

2 July 2007

5.42

4.51

1.88

3 July 2007

5.46

4.56

1.85

4 July 2007

5.50

4.60

1.90

5 July 2007

5.52

4.65

1.92

6 July 2007

5.55

4.68

1.93

9 July 2007

5.55

4.67

1.95

10 July 2007

5.45

4.59

1.96

11 July 2007

5.44

4.58

1.88

12 July 2007

5.46

4.62

1.90

13 July 2007

5.49

4.62

1.93

16 July 2007

5.46

4.58

ND

17 July 2007

5.48

4.60

1.92

18 July 2007

5.41

4.54

1.90

19 July 2007

5.41

4.55

1.90

20 July 2007

5.31

4.44

1.89

23 July 2007

5.32

4.44

1.85

24 July 2007

5.31

4.43

1.87

25 July 2007

5.28

4.40

1.86

26 July 2007

5.21

4.33

1.85

27 July 2007

5.20

4.32

1.79

30 July 2007

5.16

4.30

1.81

31 July 2007

5.21

4.35

1.80

1 August 2007

5.20

4.35

1.76

2 August 2007

5.24

4.37

1.80

3 August 2007

5.18

4.32

1.79

6 August 2007

5.19

4.32

1.75

7 August 2007

5.20

4.34

1.74

8 August 2007

5.30

4.42

1.76

9 August 2007

5.25

4.39

1.78

10 August 2007

5.22

4.35

1.72

13 August 2007

5.23

4.37

1.72

14 August 2007

5.18

4.36

1.71

15 August 2007

5.13

4.34

1.65

16 August 2007

5.08

4.25

1.65

17 August 2007

5.08

4.29

ND

20 August 2007

5.07

4.27

1.60

21 August 2007

5.00

4.23

1.56

22 August 2007

5.10

4.29

1.59

23 August 2007

5.06

4.27

1.61

24 August 2007

5.08

4.26

1.59

27 August 2007

5.08

4.25

1.63

28 August 2007

5.05

4.23

1.63

29 August 2007

5.04

4.22

1.59

30 August 2007

5.03

4.23

1.58

31 August 2007

5.04

4.24

1.61

3 September 2007

5.07

4.26

1.65

4 September 2007

5.08

4.28

1.62

5 September 2007

5.04

4.21

1.63

6 September 2007

5.02

4.21

1.62

7 September 2007

4.95

4.12

1.60

10 September 2007 4.90

4.07

1.52

11 September 2007 4.91

4.09

1.54

12 September 2007 4.90

4.13

1.52

13 September 2007 4.93

4.17

1.54

14 September 2007 4.87

4.17

1.56

17 September 2007 4.85

4.15

ND

18 September 2007 4.95

4.22

1.52

19 September 2007 4.99

4.28

1.61

20 September 2007 5.04

4.34

1.63

21 September 2007 5.09

4.36

1.68

24 September 2007 5.07

4.37

ND

25 September 2007 5.03

4.33

1.68

26 September 2007 5.06

4.38

1.67

27 September 2007 5.06

4.38

1.72

28 September 2007 5.01

4.33

1.68

1 October 2007

4.99

4.32

1.66

2 October 2007

4.96

4.32

1.69

3 October 2007

4.97

4.33

1.69

4 October 2007

4.94

4.29

1.71

5 October 2007

4.95

4.35

1.70

8 October 2007

4.95

4.35

ND

9 October 2007

4.89

4.32

1.71

10 October 2007

4.98

4.35

1.72

11 October 2007

5.02

4.39

1.73

12 October 2007

5.08

4.42

1.70

15 October 2007

5.09

4.43

1.72

16 October 2007

5.08

4.44

1.69

17 October 2007

5.03

4.39

1.66

18 October 2007

4.97

4.32

1.64

19 October 2007

4.89

4.22

1.61

22 October 2007

4.88

4.19

1.58

23 October 2007

4.89

4.20

1.61

24 October 2007

4.84

4.15

1.57

25 October 2007

4.85

4.16

1.61

26 October 2007

4.85

4.17

1.63

29 October 2007

4.85

4.17

1.61

30 October 2007

4.87

4.19

1.62

31 October 2007

4.93

4.24

1.61

1 November 2007

4.92

4.21

1.67

2 November 2007

4.87

4.18

1.60

5 November 2007

4.86

4.17

1.58

6 November 2007

4.87

4.18

1.59

7 November 2007

4.83

4.15

1.57

8 November 2007

4.78

4.13

1.55

9 November 2007

4.74

4.09

1.54

12 November 2007

4.75

4.10

1.53

13 November 2007

4.75

4.13

1.50

14 November 2007

4.74

4.15

1.53

15 November 2007

4.68

4.12

1.51

16 November 2007

4.63

4.10

1.48

19 November 2007

4.61

4.05

1.48

20 November 2007

4.62

4.06

1.48

21 November 2007

4.56

4.01

1.44

22 November 2007

4.53

4.03

1.43

23 November 2007

4.56

4.04

ND

26 November 2007

4.56

4.02

1.49

27 November 2007

4.59

4.04

1.51

28 November 2007

4.68

4.11

1.50

29 November 2007

4.58

4.07

1.50

30 November 2007

4.64

4.13

1.47

3 December 2007

4.58

4.07

1.46

4 December 2007

4.53

4.03

1.43

5 December 2007

4.49

4.03

1.49

6 December 2007

4.55

4.08

1.55

7 December 2007

4.64

4.20

1.56

10 December 2007

4.70

4.27

1.57

11 December 2007

4.67

4.24

1.57

12 December 2007

4.80

4.31

1.53

13 December 2007

4.76

4.28

1.51

14 December 2007

4.79

4.30

1.54

17 December 2007

4.76

4.29

1.54

18 December 2007

4.75

4.29

1.53

19 December 2007

4.68

4.28

1.48

20 December 2007

4.59

4.25

1.52

21 December 2007

4.64

4.30

1.55

24 December 2007

4.59

4.31

ND

25 December 2007

4.60

4.30

1.58

26 December 2007

4.60

4.31

1.55

27 December 2007

4.63

4.35

1.54

28 December 2007

4.56

4.31

1.50

31 December 2007

4.51

4.31

ND

1 January 2008

4.50

4.30

ND

2 January 2008

4.44

4.21

ND

3 January 2008

4.45

4.19

ND

4 January 2008

4.41

4.13

1.47

7 January 2008

4.41

4.13

1.46

8 January 2008

4.45

4.15

1.46

9 January 2008

4.40

4.09

1.47

10 January 2008

4.41

4.09

1.44

11 January 2008

4.42

4.09

1.43

14 January 2008

4.41

4.05

ND

15 January 2008

4.40

4.02

1.43

16 January 2008

4.38

3.98

1.39

17 January 2008

4.41

3.98

1.42

18 January 2008

4.44

3.97

1.40

21 January 2008

4.37

3.91

1.37

22 January 2008

4.50

3.99

1.32

23 January 2008

4.42

3.89

1.35

24 January 2008

4.54

4.00

1.39

25 January 2008

4.53

3.98

1.48

28 January 2008

4.49

3.95

1.41

29 January 2008

4.59

3.99

1.48

30 January 2008

4.57

4.02

1.43

31 January 2008

4.48

3.93

1.44

1 February 2008

4.47

3.92

1.43

4 February 2008

4.50

3.93

1.47

5 February 2008

4.41

3.85

1.48

6 February 2008

4.46

3.90

1.42

7 February 2008

4.43

3.88

1.43

8 February 2008

4.43

3.86

1.42

11 February 2008

4.50

3.86

ND

12 February 2008

4.62

3.94

1.41

13 February 2008

4.62

3.96

1.42

14 February 2008

4.64

4.00

1.47

15 February 2008

4.60

3.96

1.46

18 February 2008

4.65

4.01

1.45

19 February 2008

4.64

3.99

1.46

20 February 2008

4.69

4.03

1.43

21 February 2008

4.69

4.01

1.49

22 February 2008

4.69

4.00

1.45

25 February 2008

4.72

4.04

1.48

26 February 2008

4.72

4.07

1.48

27 February 2008

4.70

4.09

1.47

28 February 2008

4.60

4.00

1.42

29 February 2008

4.47

3.89

1.36

3 March 2008

4.45

3.86

1.35

4 March 2008

4.41

3.81

1.37

5 March 2008

4.48

3.86

1.37

6 March 2008

4.39

3.81

1.36

7 March 2008

4.33

3.79

1.34

10 March 2008

4.29

3.73

1.33

11 March 2008

4.36

3.79

1.34

12 March 2008

4.42

3.77

1.33

13 March 2008

4.36

3.76

1.29

14 March 2008

4.33

3.73

1.27

17 March 2008

4.30

3.69

1.29

18 March 2008

4.36

3.76

1.32

19 March 2008

4.31

3.76

1.27

20 March 2008

4.29

3.75

ND

21 March 2008

4.29

3.76

1.28

24 March 2008

4.29

3.76

1.26

25 March 2008

4.43

3.88

1.26

26 March 2008

4.44

3.88

1.28

27 March 2008

4.50

3.92

1.28

28 March 2008

4.41

3.94

1.28

31 March 2008

4.35

3.90

1.28

1 April 2008

4.45

3.97

1.36

2 April 2008

4.43

3.99

1.37

3 April 2008

4.45

3.98

1.35

4 April 2008

4.45

3.95

1.33

7 April 2008

4.50

4.01

1.34

8 April 2008

4.50

4.02

1.33

9 April 2008

4.51

4.00

1.34

10 April 2008

4.48

3.98

1.34

11 April 2008

4.41

3.91

1.37

14 April 2008

4.43

3.91

1.33

15 April 2008

4.43

3.96

1.34

16 April 2008

4.53

4.04

1.34

17 April 2008

4.65

4.08

1.37

18 April 2008

4.73

4.13

1.39

21 April 2008

4.67

4.12

1.45

22 April 2008

4.69

4.15

1.46

23 April 2008

4.67

4.15

1.44

24 April 2008

4.77

4.18

1.47

25 April 2008

4.78

4.18

1.62

28 April 2008

4.74

4.20

1.60

29 April 2008

4.68

4.14

ND

30 April 2008

4.67

4.12

1.56

1 May 2008

4.62

4.12

1.56

2 May 2008

4.74

4.20

1.61

5 May 2008

4.74

4.16

ND

6 May 2008

4.67

4.13

ND

7 May 2008

4.71

4.18

1.63

8 May 2008

4.62

4.06

1.64

9 May 2008

4.58

4.00

1.56

12 May 2008

4.61

4.01

1.59

13 May 2008

4.71

4.08

1.59

14 May 2008

4.82

4.17

1.70

15 May 2008

4.84

4.20

1.68

16 May 2008

4.77

4.17

1.69

19 May 2008

4.83

4.22

1.66

20 May 2008

4.80

4.18

1.63

21 May 2008

4.88

4.26

1.61

22 May 2008

4.95

4.30

1.67

23 May 2008

4.92

4.26

1.75

26 May 2008

4.93

4.29

1.74

27 May 2008

4.92

4.31

1.78

28 May 2008

4.96

4.35

1.78

29 May 2008

5.03

4.43

1.80

30 May 2008

4.99

4.41

1.79

2 June 2008

4.96

4.35

1.75

3 June 2008

5.04

4.43

1.71

4 June 2008

4.95

4.38

1.74

5 June 2008

5.04

4.47

1.75

6 June 2008

4.99

4.42

1.79

9 June 2008

5.14

4.49

1.73

10 June 2008

5.13

4.52

1.80

Note. Last daily observation is for June 19, 2008. The UK series ends at about 5.25 percent, the Germany series ends at about 4.7 percent, and the Japan series ends at about 1.8 percent.
ND No data  Return to table

Figure: Nominal trade-weighted dollar indexes
Daily
Index(12/31/04=100)

Date

Broad Major Currencies Other Important Trading Partners

4 January 2005

101.17

101.77

100.53

5 January 2005

101.17

101.66

100.64

6 January 2005

101.80

102.57

100.97

7 January 2005

101.88

102.89

100.79

10 January 2005

101.45

102.23

100.61

11 January 2005

101.12

101.74

100.44

12 January 2005

100.45

100.68

100.19

13 January 2005

100.63

101.06

100.15

14 January 2005

101.18

101.94

100.37

18 January 2005

101.30

102.17

100.36

19 January 2005

101.33

102.32

100.26

20 January 2005

101.68

102.88

100.39

21 January 2005

101.28

102.17

100.33

24 January 2005

101.28

102.28

100.21

25 January 2005

101.87

103.22

100.42

26 January 2005

101.31

102.29

100.26

27 January 2005

101.52

102.62

100.33

28 January 2005

101.55

102.84

100.17

31 January 2005

101.43

102.74

100.02

1 February 2005

101.53

102.97

99.99

2 February 2005

101.52

102.98

99.95

3 February 2005

101.65

103.32

99.88

4 February 2005

101.65

103.42

99.77

7 February 2005

102.22

104.39

99.93

8 February 2005

102.32

104.33

100.19

9 February 2005

102.33

104.40

100.13

10 February 2005

101.96

103.72

100.08

11 February 2005

101.91

103.74

99.98

14 February 2005

101.43

102.98

99.78

15 February 2005

101.37

102.88

99.76

16 February 2005

101.65

103.35

99.85

17 February 2005

101.24

102.65

99.73

18 February 2005

101.19

102.68

99.59

22 February 2005

100.62

101.86

99.30

23 February 2005

100.92

102.37

99.38

24 February 2005

101.07

102.53

99.51

25 February 2005

101.03

102.43

99.54

28 February 2005

100.54

101.65

99.35

1 March 2005

100.92

102.31

99.44

2 March 2005

101.07

102.54

99.50

3 March 2005

101.31

102.77

99.75

4 March 2005

100.76

101.87

99.58

7 March 2005

100.85

102.11

99.50

8 March 2005

100.32

101.13

99.46

9 March 2005

100.11

100.68

99.49

10 March 2005

100.10

100.62

99.53

11 March 2005

99.91

100.38

99.40

14 March 2005

100.49

101.13

99.79

15 March 2005

100.57

101.06

100.04

16 March 2005

100.25

100.52

99.95

17 March 2005

100.36

100.73

99.95

18 March 2005

100.45

100.97

99.88

21 March 2005

100.99

101.82

100.09

22 March 2005

100.74

101.39

100.02

23 March 2005

101.49

102.65

100.25

24 March 2005

101.70

102.94

100.37

25 March 2005

101.76

103.06

100.38

28 March 2005

102.17

103.62

100.63

29 March 2005

101.96

103.24

100.60

30 March 2005

101.82

103.15

100.40

31 March 2005

101.55

102.84

100.17

1 April 2005

101.79

103.33

100.15

4 April 2005

102.11

103.83

100.30

5 April 2005

102.09

103.80

100.27

6 April 2005

102.06

103.81

100.22

7 April 2005

101.89

103.62

100.06

8 April 2005

101.87

103.65

99.99

11 April 2005

101.74

103.54

99.84

12 April 2005

102.13

104.18

99.97

13 April 2005

101.74

103.70

99.68

14 April 2005

102.25

104.40

99.97

15 April 2005

102.00

103.91

99.97

18 April 2005

101.92

103.64

100.09

19 April 2005

101.64

103.32

99.86

20 April 2005

101.43

103.05

99.71

21 April 2005

101.42

103.05

99.70

22 April 2005

101.24

102.80

99.59

25 April 2005

101.39

103.11

99.56

26 April 2005

101.63

103.52

99.62

27 April 2005

101.68

103.60

99.65

28 April 2005

101.79

103.75

99.71

29 April 2005

101.65

103.64

99.55

2 May 2005

101.78

103.96

99.47

3 May 2005

101.73

103.89

99.44

4 May 2005

101.42

103.51

99.21

5 May 2005

101.26

103.28

99.13

6 May 2005

101.50

103.72

99.15

9 May 2005

101.53

103.72

99.23

10 May 2005

101.51

103.60

99.32

11 May 2005

101.80

104.18

99.30

12 May 2005

102.11

104.77

99.32

13 May 2005

102.51

105.48

99.40

16 May 2005

102.76

105.82

99.56

17 May 2005

102.62

105.66

99.43

18 May 2005

102.47

105.47

99.33

19 May 2005

102.55

105.68

99.28

20 May 2005

102.86

106.13

99.44

23 May 2005

102.64

105.81

99.33

24 May 2005

102.64

105.80

99.33

25 May 2005

102.61

105.87

99.21

26 May 2005

102.92

106.36

99.33

27 May 2005

102.58

105.91

99.11

31 May 2005

102.92

106.43

99.28

1 June 2005

103.18

106.87

99.35

2 June 2005

103.05

106.71

99.25

3 June 2005

103.06

106.80

99.18

6 June 2005

102.91

106.30

99.38

7 June 2005

102.83

106.22

99.30

8 June 2005

102.71

106.04

99.24

9 June 2005

103.24

106.88

99.45

10 June 2005

103.43

107.27

99.46

13 June 2005

103.92

108.11

99.59

14 June 2005

103.79

107.95

99.50

15 June 2005

103.38

107.19

99.42

16 June 2005

103.29

107.14

99.30

17 June 2005

102.88

106.46

99.16

20 June 2005

103.16

106.84

99.35

21 June 2005

103.00

106.66

99.20

22 June 2005

103.09

106.88

99.15

23 June 2005

103.23

107.07

99.25

24 June 2005

103.22

107.07

99.22

27 June 2005

103.13

106.81

99.31

28 June 2005

103.42

107.23

99.48

29 June 2005

103.37

107.15

99.44

30 June 2005

103.51

107.34

99.53

1 July 2005

104.08

108.58

99.45

5 July 2005

104.37

108.86

99.74

6 July 2005

104.32

108.73

99.78

7 July 2005

104.30

108.56

99.90

8 July 2005

104.16

108.38

99.81

11 July 2005

103.55

107.46

99.50

12 July 2005

103.00

106.53

99.33

13 July 2005

103.45

107.31

99.46

14 July 2005

103.34

107.29

99.26

15 July 2005

103.66

107.92

99.26

18 July 2005

103.38

107.50

99.11

19 July 2005

103.84

108.20

99.34

20 July 2005

103.91

108.24

99.44

21 July 2005

103.22

107.25

99.04

22 July 2005

103.00

107.49

98.38

25 July 2005

103.20

107.70

98.57

26 July 2005

103.59

108.31

98.75

27 July 2005

103.54

108.31

98.65

28 July 2005

103.32

107.99

98.51

29 July 2005

103.10

107.67

98.40

1 August 2005

102.74

107.01

98.33

2 August 2005

102.53

106.74

98.17

3 August 2005

102.21

106.23

98.05

4 August 2005

102.07

106.06

97.94

5 August 2005

102.38

106.64

97.99

8 August 2005

102.24

106.29

98.06

9 August 2005

102.35

106.42

98.14

10 August 2005

102.04

106.05

97.90

11 August 2005

101.69

105.25

97.98

12 August 2005

101.62

104.95

98.15

15 August 2005

101.74

105.24

98.09

16 August 2005

101.78

105.34

98.09

17 August 2005

102.08

105.84

98.18

18 August 2005

102.67

106.77

98.43

19 August 2005

102.93

106.86

98.86

22 August 2005

102.39

106.02

98.62

23 August 2005

102.44

105.96

98.79

24 August 2005

102.57

105.90

99.10

25 August 2005

102.19

105.32

98.93

26 August 2005

102.30

105.44

99.03

29 August 2005

102.66

105.91

99.28

30 August 2005

102.76

106.20

99.18

31 August 2005

102.31

105.48

99.00

1 September 2005

101.80

104.70

98.76

2 September 2005

101.46

104.30

98.49

6 September 2005

101.55

104.44

98.52

7 September 2005

101.68

104.62

98.60

8 September 2005

101.73

104.73

98.59

9 September 2005

101.47

104.26

98.55

12 September 2005 101.91

105.16

98.53

13 September 2005 102.06

105.29

98.70

14 September 2005 102.04

105.16

98.80

15 September 2005 102.23

105.64

98.68

16 September 2005 102.32

105.73

98.78

19 September 2005 102.27

105.52

98.88

20 September 2005 102.25

105.51

98.86

21 September 2005 102.08

105.28

98.74

22 September 2005 102.31

105.60

98.89

23 September 2005 102.63

106.17

98.95

26 September 2005 102.86

106.54

99.03

27 September 2005 103.03

106.86

99.06

28 September 2005 103.00

106.85

99.00

29 September 2005 102.82

106.64

98.86

30 September 2005 102.53

106.13

98.79

3 October 2005

102.98

106.99

98.83

4 October 2005

103.01

107.17

98.70

5 October 2005

102.93

107.03

98.70

6 October 2005

102.74

106.52

98.82

7 October 2005

102.71

106.50

98.79

11 October 2005

103.00

107.00

98.87

12 October 2005

102.99

106.77

99.06

13 October 2005

103.59

107.68

99.35

14 October 2005

103.16

106.99

99.19

17 October 2005

103.19

107.18

99.07

18 October 2005

103.50

107.72

99.14

19 October 2005

103.39

107.35

99.29

20 October 2005

103.31

107.27

99.20

21 October 2005

103.64

107.70

99.45

24 October 2005

103.49

107.54

99.30

25 October 2005

102.98

106.68

99.13

26 October 2005

103.07

106.79

99.22

27 October 2005

102.87

106.38

99.21

28 October 2005

103.06

106.91

99.07

31 October 2005

103.33

107.52

98.99

1 November 2005

103.30

107.52

98.95

2 November 2005

103.18

107.36

98.86

3 November 2005

103.39

107.83

98.82

4 November 2005

103.86

108.63

98.95

7 November 2005

103.96

108.92

98.87

8 November 2005

103.96

108.87

98.93

9 November 2005

103.93

108.96

98.78

10 November 2005

104.02

109.12

98.79

14 November 2005

104.33

109.84

98.71

15 November 2005

104.21

109.69

98.62

16 November 2005

104.30

109.86

98.64

17 November 2005

104.12

109.49

98.63

18 November 2005

104.21

109.59

98.72

21 November 2005

104.04

109.29

98.67

22 November 2005

104.06

109.18

98.82

23 November 2005

103.69

108.68

98.57

25 November 2005

103.88

109.03

98.61

28 November 2005

103.56

108.53

98.46

29 November 2005

103.60

108.70

98.38

30 November 2005

103.59

108.65

98.40

1 December 2005

103.80

109.16

98.32

2 December 2005

103.65

108.98

98.20

5 December 2005

103.39

108.43

98.23

6 December 2005

103.24

108.40

97.97

7 December 2005

103.49

108.75

98.10

8 December 2005

103.22

108.13

98.19

9 December 2005

103.39

108.20

98.46

12 December 2005

102.93

107.26

98.46

13 December 2005

103.01

107.52

98.36

14 December 2005

102.58

106.56

98.45

15 December 2005

102.80

107.02

98.44

16 December 2005

102.69

106.66

98.59

19 December 2005

102.85

107.00

98.56

20 December 2005

103.35

108.07

98.50

21 December 2005

103.35

108.21

98.37

22 December 2005

103.14

107.77

98.38

23 December 2005

103.17

107.85

98.36

27 December 2005

103.46

108.23

98.56

28 December 2005

103.34

107.98

98.57

29 December 2005

103.29

108.11

98.34

30 December 2005

103.26

108.20

98.20

3 January 2006

102.62

107.04

98.08

4 January 2006

102.11

106.37

97.72

5 January 2006

102.16

106.58

97.60

6 January 2006

101.89

106.16

97.48

9 January 2006

102.01

106.64

97.25

10 January 2006

101.97

106.47

97.34

11 January 2006

101.71

105.95

97.34

12 January 2006

101.88

106.50

97.13

13 January 2006

101.81

106.20

97.29

17 January 2006

102.10

106.68

97.39

18 January 2006

102.25

106.83

97.54

19 January 2006

102.03

106.52

97.41

20 January 2006

101.76

106.19

97.20

23 January 2006

101.26

105.29

97.09

24 January 2006

101.22

105.32

96.98

25 January 2006

101.23

105.44

96.88

26 January 2006

101.35

105.69

96.87

27 January 2006

101.51

106.13

96.76

30 January 2006

101.58

106.29

96.75

31 January 2006

101.30

105.84

96.64

1 February 2006

101.49

106.15

96.72

2 February 2006

101.68

106.27

96.95

3 February 2006

101.98

106.88

96.94

6 February 2006

101.97

107.13

96.69

7 February 2006

102.00

107.07

96.81

8 February 2006

102.30

107.48

97.00

9 February 2006

102.04

107.14

96.83

10 February 2006

102.12

107.36

96.76

13 February 2006

102.19

107.45

96.82

14 February 2006

102.18

107.50

96.75

15 February 2006

102.23

107.57

96.79

16 February 2006

102.29

107.73

96.75

17 February 2006

102.14

107.54

96.63

21 February 2006

102.05

107.39

96.60

22 February 2006

102.20

107.43

96.85

23 February 2006

101.99

107.15

96.72

24 February 2006

102.04

107.34

96.64

27 February 2006

101.86

107.00

96.61

28 February 2006

101.58

106.54

96.50

1 March 2006

101.64

106.70

96.46

2 March 2006

101.40

106.17

96.51

3 March 2006

101.51

106.22

96.67

6 March 2006

101.78

106.65

96.79

7 March 2006

102.34

107.39

97.17

8 March 2006

102.62

107.64

97.47

9 March 2006

102.53

107.67

97.28

10 March 2006

102.70

108.08

97.21

13 March 2006

102.60

107.88

97.22

14 March 2006

102.08

107.00

97.03

15 March 2006

101.97

106.94

96.88

16 March 2006

101.68

106.48

96.76

17 March 2006

101.61

106.26

96.83

20 March 2006

101.78

106.56

96.87

21 March 2006

102.19

107.18

97.08

22 March 2006

102.21

107.02

97.26

23 March 2006

102.52

107.66

97.27

24 March 2006

102.49

107.50

97.35

27 March 2006

102.53

107.43

97.49

28 March 2006

102.50

107.33

97.55

29 March 2006

102.74

107.77

97.58

30 March 2006

102.28

107.00

97.44

31 March 2006

102.25

107.14

97.24

3 April 2006

102.31

107.39

97.11

4 April 2006

101.83

106.60

96.94

5 April 2006

101.77

106.45

96.96

6 April 2006

101.83

106.38

97.16

7 April 2006

102.08

106.70

97.32

10 April 2006

102.08

106.83

97.19

11 April 2006

101.97

106.62

97.19

12 April 2006

102.04

106.71

97.25

13 April 2006

102.16

106.79

97.39

14 April 2006

102.14

106.84

97.32

17 April 2006

101.57

105.81

97.21

18 April 2006

101.39

105.68

96.98

19 April 2006

101.08

105.16

96.87

20 April 2006

101.21

105.35

96.94

21 April 2006

101.15

105.14

97.02

24 April 2006

100.81

104.70

96.79

25 April 2006

100.68

104.37

96.84

26 April 2006

100.60

104.02

97.05

27 April 2006

100.24

103.53

96.82

28 April 2006

99.89

102.94

96.71

1 May 2006

99.68

102.61

96.61

2 May 2006

99.45

102.30

96.46

3 May 2006

99.35

102.30

96.27

4 May 2006

99.29

102.12

96.33

5 May 2006

99.07

101.77

96.23

8 May 2006

98.98

101.80

96.02

9 May 2006

98.76

101.36

96.04

10 May 2006

98.46

101.02

95.77

11 May 2006

98.38

100.66

95.99

12 May 2006

98.71

100.85

96.45

15 May 2006

99.18

101.23

97.02

16 May 2006

99.03

101.15

96.80

17 May 2006

99.28

101.55

96.89

18 May 2006

99.52

101.60

97.33

19 May 2006

99.75

102.03

97.34

22 May 2006

99.79

101.55

97.92

23 May 2006

99.54

101.48

97.50

24 May 2006

100.23

102.25

98.10

25 May 2006

99.71

101.52

97.79

26 May 2006

99.75

101.83

97.55

30 May 2006

99.46

100.99

97.83

31 May 2006

99.62

101.28

97.86

1 June 2006

99.62

101.31

97.84

2 June 2006

99.41

100.82

97.91

5 June 2006

99.22

100.73

97.60

6 June 2006

99.96

101.90

97.90

7 June 2006

99.99

101.92

97.95

8 June 2006

100.72

102.95

98.37

9 June 2006

100.36

102.43

98.18

12 June 2006

100.38

102.39

98.26

13 June 2006

100.74

102.88

98.49

14 June 2006

100.65

102.75

98.44

15 June 2006

100.69

103.01

98.25

16 June 2006

100.70

103.14

98.14

19 June 2006

100.93

103.39

98.34

20 June 2006

100.80

103.16

98.31

21 June 2006

100.37

102.42

98.19

22 June 2006

100.86

103.36

98.23

23 June 2006

101.19

103.86

98.38

26 June 2006

101.13

103.79

98.34

27 June 2006

100.99

103.54

98.31

28 June 2006

101.15

103.89

98.28

29 June 2006

100.99

103.61

98.23

30 June 2006

100.04

102.32

97.64

3 July 2006

99.84

102.27

97.29

5 July 2006

100.11

102.65

97.44

6 July 2006

99.95

102.44

97.33

7 July 2006

99.57

102.00

97.02

10 July 2006

99.78

102.61

96.81

11 July 2006

100.00

102.88

96.99

12 July 2006

100.30

103.32

97.14

13 July 2006

100.35

103.30

97.27

14 July 2006

100.49

103.43

97.42

17 July 2006

100.88

104.16

97.46

18 July 2006

100.94

104.34

97.41

19 July 2006

100.74

104.08

97.27

20 July 2006

100.42

103.69

97.02

21 July 2006

100.34

103.50

97.04

24 July 2006

100.58

103.90

97.13

25 July 2006

100.74

104.23

97.11

26 July 2006

100.55

103.82

97.14

27 July 2006

100.05

103.09

96.87

28 July 2006

99.88

102.75

96.88

31 July 2006

99.82

102.66

96.85

1 August 2006

99.99

102.71

97.14

2 August 2006

99.78

102.39

97.05

3 August 2006

99.92

102.57

97.14

4 August 2006

99.48

101.92

96.91

7 August 2006

99.40

101.85

96.81

8 August 2006

99.53

102.05

96.89

9 August 2006

99.33

101.88

96.66

10 August 2006

99.74

102.62

96.72

11 August 2006

99.66

102.55

96.64

14 August 2006

99.85

102.83

96.74

15 August 2006

99.69

102.49

96.76

16 August 2006

99.29

101.97

96.48

17 August 2006

99.24

101.96

96.38

18 August 2006

99.61

102.51

96.59

21 August 2006

99.27

101.95

96.46

22 August 2006

99.49

102.37

96.47

23 August 2006

99.46

102.19

96.59

24 August 2006

99.67

102.33

96.88

25 August 2006

99.77

102.40

97.00

28 August 2006

99.73

102.40

96.93

29 August 2006

99.65

102.40

96.78

30 August 2006

99.48

102.14

96.68

31 August 2006

99.54

102.21

96.74

1 September 2006

99.41

102.03

96.67

5 September 2006

99.31

102.11

96.38

6 September 2006

99.48

102.20

96.62

7 September 2006

99.65

102.41

96.76

8 September 2006

100.03

103.10

96.83

11 September 2006 100.20

103.21

97.06

12 September 2006 100.11

103.12

96.97

13 September 2006 100.01

103.02

96.87

14 September 2006

99.86

102.78

96.80

15 September 2006 100.04

103.25

96.70

18 September 2006

103.15

96.67

99.98

19 September 2006 100.01

103.19

96.68

20 September 2006

99.99

103.18

96.66

21 September 2006

99.78

102.78

96.66

22 September 2006

99.71

102.41

96.88

25 September 2006

99.84

102.55

96.99

26 September 2006

99.90

102.86

96.80

27 September 2006

99.85

102.90

96.66

28 September 2006

99.87

102.89

96.70

29 September 2006

99.93

103.11

96.63

2 October 2006

99.77

102.82

96.58

3 October 2006

99.95

103.07

96.70

4 October 2006

100.18

103.47

96.75

5 October 2006

100.09

103.39

96.65

6 October 2006

100.37

103.86

96.73

10 October 2006

100.70

104.43

96.83

11 October 2006

100.71

104.49

96.79

12 October 2006

100.63

104.51

96.62

13 October 2006

100.60

104.71

96.35

16 October 2006

100.51

104.57

96.32

17 October 2006

100.34

104.24

96.30

18 October 2006

100.42

104.49

96.21

19 October 2006

100.12

103.91

96.19

20 October 2006

100.00

103.65

96.22

23 October 2006

100.27

104.12

96.28

24 October 2006

100.18

103.99

96.23

25 October 2006

100.04

103.81

96.14

26 October 2006

99.73

103.44

95.89

27 October 2006

99.34

102.83

95.72

30 October 2006

99.40

102.93

95.74

31 October 2006

99.23

102.60

95.73

1 November 2006

99.32

102.88

95.63

2 November 2006

99.46

103.01

95.78

3 November 2006

99.53

103.24

95.69

6 November 2006

99.62

103.29

95.82

7 November 2006

99.27

102.72

95.68

8 November 2006

99.39

102.90

95.74

9 November 2006

99.32

102.77

95.72

10 November 2006

99.27

102.64

95.75

13 November 2006

99.58

103.17

95.84

14 November 2006

99.53

103.17

95.75

15 November 2006

99.62

103.27

95.84

16 November 2006

99.60

103.29

95.77

17 November 2006

99.75

103.33

96.05

20 November 2006

99.79

103.46

95.99

21 November 2006

99.79

103.39

96.05

22 November 2006

99.32

102.56

95.95

24 November 2006

98.86

101.69

95.91

27 November 2006

98.80

101.54

95.93

28 November 2006

98.66

101.31

95.89

29 November 2006

98.66

101.51

95.69

30 November 2006

98.39

101.09

95.56

1 December 2006

98.27

100.93

95.49

4 December 2006

98.24

100.94

95.42

5 December 2006

98.02

100.79

95.11

6 December 2006

98.08

101.04

94.99

7 December 2006

98.10

101.14

94.94

8 December 2006

98.39

101.65

95.00

11 December 2006

98.47

101.70

95.10

12 December 2006

98.50

101.83

95.03

13 December 2006

98.52

101.93

94.98

14 December 2006

98.58

102.16

94.87

15 December 2006

98.77

102.51

94.89

18 December 2006

98.93

102.67

95.06

19 December 2006

98.74

102.12

95.22

20 December 2006

98.59

102.02

95.02

21 December 2006

98.71

102.18

95.11

22 December 2006

98.90

102.55

95.11

26 December 2006

98.96

102.62

95.16

27 December 2006

98.98

102.67

95.16

28 December 2006

98.84

102.53

95.02

29 December 2006

98.81

102.59

94.90

2 January 2007

98.53

102.18

94.74

3 January 2007

98.89

102.93

94.71

4 January 2007

99.27

103.35

95.05

5 January 2007

99.48

103.58

95.25

8 January 2007

99.50

103.52

95.35

9 January 2007

99.68

103.78

95.44

10 January 2007

99.80

103.97

95.50

11 January 2007

99.81

104.14

95.35

12 January 2007

99.66

103.82

95.37

16 January 2007

99.72

103.99

95.31

17 January 2007

99.50

103.79

95.08

18 January 2007

99.58

103.99

95.04

19 January 2007

99.45

103.78

94.98

22 January 2007

99.59

103.97

95.08

23 January 2007

99.57

103.85

95.17

24 January 2007

99.63

104.06

95.08

25 January 2007

99.56

103.92

95.07

26 January 2007

99.85

104.35

95.23

29 January 2007

99.92

104.32

95.38

30 January 2007

99.87

104.27

95.34

31 January 2007

99.69

103.96

95.28

1 February 2007

99.44

103.69

95.06

2 February 2007

99.69

104.18

95.07

5 February 2007

99.58

104.13

94.90

6 February 2007

99.45

103.97

94.79

7 February 2007

99.44

103.95

94.80

8 February 2007

99.52

104.05

94.87

9 February 2007

99.42

103.93

94.78

12 February 2007

99.64

104.15

95.01

13 February 2007

99.42

103.72

95.00

14 February 2007

99.02

103.16

94.75

15 February 2007

98.88

102.92

94.70

16 February 2007

98.87

102.88

94.73

20 February 2007

99.04

103.18

94.77

21 February 2007

99.01

103.11

94.78

22 February 2007

99.01

103.13

94.76

23 February 2007

98.92

102.88

94.84

26 February 2007

98.97

102.88

94.93

27 February 2007

98.81

102.36

95.13

28 February 2007

98.95

102.56

95.21

1 March 2007

99.03

102.66

95.26

2 March 2007

99.05

102.69

95.27

5 March 2007

99.31

103.12

95.36

6 March 2007

99.16

102.99

95.19

7 March 2007

99.10

102.90

95.17

8 March 2007

99.22

103.19

95.13

9 March 2007

99.12

103.08

95.03

12 March 2007

98.97

102.71

95.10

13 March 2007

98.89

102.54

95.10

14 March 2007

98.94

102.53

95.20

15 March 2007

98.92

102.60

95.12

16 March 2007

98.72

102.25

95.06

19 March 2007

98.80

102.42

95.04

20 March 2007

98.51

102.03

94.85

21 March 2007

98.33

101.90

94.63

22 March 2007

98.11

101.67

94.41

23 March 2007

98.28

101.94

94.48

26 March 2007

98.28

101.89

94.53

27 March 2007

98.18

101.72

94.51

28 March 2007

98.20

101.66

94.61

29 March 2007

98.22

101.78

94.54

30 March 2007

98.05

101.47

94.50

2 April 2007

98.06

101.51

94.48

3 April 2007

98.13

101.79

94.33

4 April 2007

98.11

101.78

94.30

5 April 2007

97.87

101.40

94.21

6 April 2007

98.00

101.68

94.19

9 April 2007

98.04

101.77

94.17

10 April 2007

97.88

101.33

94.30

11 April 2007

97.80

101.27

94.20

12 April 2007

97.58

100.83

94.20

13 April 2007

97.50

100.79

94.08

16 April 2007

97.38

100.54

94.09

17 April 2007

97.21

100.22

94.06

18 April 2007

97.12

100.09

94.03

19 April 2007

97.08

100.01

94.02

20 April 2007

96.99

99.92

93.93

23 April 2007

97.01

99.94

93.94

24 April 2007

97.00

99.85

94.03

25 April 2007

96.70

99.53

93.74

26 April 2007

97.01

100.07

93.82

27 April 2007

96.87

99.80

93.82

30 April 2007

96.71

99.43

93.86

1 May 2007

96.87

99.72

93.88

2 May 2007

96.89

99.81

93.84

3 May 2007

96.87

99.91

93.71

4 May 2007

96.77

99.81

93.60

7 May 2007

96.55

99.55

93.42

8 May 2007

96.71

99.87

93.42

9 May 2007

96.64

99.82

93.33

10 May 2007

96.79

100.09

93.35

11 May 2007

96.84

100.23

93.32

14 May 2007

96.67

100.00

93.22

15 May 2007

96.43

99.51

93.21

16 May 2007

96.66

100.04

93.15

17 May 2007

96.69

100.09

93.16

18 May 2007

96.52

99.72

93.18

21 May 2007

96.55

99.90

93.07

22 May 2007

96.43

99.82

92.91

23 May 2007

96.33

99.61

92.91

24 May 2007

96.56

99.84

93.14

25 May 2007

96.37

99.69

92.91

29 May 2007

96.24

99.41

92.93

30 May 2007

96.41

99.68

93.01

31 May 2007

96.21

99.44

92.85

1 June 2007

96.03

99.22

92.71

4 June 2007

95.90

98.90

92.77

5 June 2007

95.90

98.81

92.86

6 June 2007

96.03

98.79

93.13

7 June 2007

96.24

99.05

93.30

8 June 2007

96.63

99.48

93.66

11 June 2007

96.54

99.47

93.47

12 June 2007

96.57

99.62

93.39

13 June 2007

96.76

99.91

93.48

14 June 2007

96.77

100.04

93.37

15 June 2007

96.50

99.91

92.97

18 June 2007

96.43

99.92

92.80

19 June 2007

96.22

99.55

92.75

20 June 2007

96.25

99.52

92.86

21 June 2007

96.49

99.85

93.00

22 June 2007

96.34

99.61

92.95

25 June 2007

96.41

99.65

93.03

26 June 2007

96.36

99.48

93.12

27 June 2007

96.44

99.54

93.21

28 June 2007

96.14

99.20

92.94

29 June 2007

96.04

99.11

92.84

2 July 2007

95.55

98.33

92.64

3 July 2007

95.60

98.51

92.57

5 July 2007

95.67

98.56

92.64

6 July 2007

95.50

98.27

92.59

9 July 2007

95.48

98.27

92.57

10 July 2007

95.25

97.92

92.45

11 July 2007

95.21

97.87

92.42

12 July 2007

95.04

97.61

92.35

13 July 2007

94.93

97.50

92.23

16 July 2007

94.82

97.33

92.19

17 July 2007

94.84

97.39

92.16

18 July 2007

94.73

97.20

92.14

19 July 2007

94.66

97.21

91.99

20 July 2007

94.64

97.04

92.12

23 July 2007

94.57

97.12

91.89

24 July 2007

94.42

96.75

91.97

25 July 2007

94.81

97.23

92.28

26 July 2007

94.99

97.25

92.61

27 July 2007

95.38

97.76

92.88

30 July 2007

95.42

97.97

92.74

31 July 2007

95.28

97.83

92.61

1 August 2007

95.26

97.62

92.78

2 August 2007

95.17

97.55

92.67

3 August 2007

94.98

97.12

92.73

6 August 2007

94.98

97.05

92.79

7 August 2007

95.18

97.41

92.83

8 August 2007

95.00

97.19

92.69

9 August 2007

95.31

97.58

92.93

10 August 2007

95.40

97.48

93.21

13 August 2007

95.47

97.70

93.14

14 August 2007

95.88

98.22

93.43

15 August 2007

96.31

98.76

93.75

16 August 2007

96.70

98.64

94.65

17 August 2007

96.12

97.97

94.17

20 August 2007

96.02

97.95

93.98

21 August 2007

96.08

97.98

94.07

22 August 2007

95.92

97.93

93.81

23 August 2007

95.82

97.76

93.78

24 August 2007

95.55

97.40

93.60

27 August 2007

95.47

97.33

93.50

28 August 2007

95.66

97.52

93.70

29 August 2007

95.57

97.40

93.63

30 August 2007

95.57

97.46

93.58

31 August 2007

95.52

97.48

93.44

3 September 2007

95.52

97.48

93.45

4 September 2007

95.50

97.43

93.45

5 September 2007

95.40

97.09

93.60

6 September 2007

95.30

97.09

93.40

7 September 2007

95.14

96.62

93.55

10 September 2007

95.07

96.51

93.55

11 September 2007

94.78

96.15

93.32

12 September 2007

94.50

95.81

93.10

13 September 2007

94.48

95.91

92.96

14 September 2007

94.55

95.99

93.02

17 September 2007

94.65

96.02

93.19

18 September 2007

94.51

95.88

93.06

19 September 2007

94.03

95.42

92.55

20 September 2007

93.30

94.23

92.30

21 September 2007

93.39

94.45

92.26

24 September 2007

93.30

94.32

92.21

25 September 2007

93.24

94.14

92.28

26 September 2007

93.34

94.45

92.16

27 September 2007

93.26

94.36

92.08

28 September 2007

92.86

93.73

91.92

1 October 2007

92.81

93.71

91.84

2 October 2007

93.03

94.13

91.86

3 October 2007

93.03

94.22

91.75

4 October 2007

93.09

94.26

91.84

5 October 2007

92.68

93.68

91.62

8 October 2007

92.69

93.68

91.64

9 October 2007

92.80

94.01

91.52

10 October 2007

92.66

93.72

91.52

11 October 2007

92.44

93.44

91.37

12 October 2007

92.54

93.54

91.47

15 October 2007

92.50

93.43

91.49

16 October 2007

92.65

93.60

91.63

17 October 2007

92.47

93.32

91.54

18 October 2007

92.26

92.92

91.54

19 October 2007

92.05

92.62

91.44

22 October 2007

92.58

93.43

91.67

23 October 2007

92.13

92.69

91.53

24 October 2007

92.16

92.72

91.54

25 October 2007

91.92

92.46

91.35

26 October 2007

91.60

92.02

91.15

29 October 2007

91.38

91.82

90.89

30 October 2007

91.29

91.72

90.83

31 October 2007

91.12

91.52

90.69

1 November 2007

91.15

91.55

90.72

2 November 2007

90.90

91.00

90.79

5 November 2007

90.89

90.93

90.85

6 November 2007

90.52

90.38

90.65

7 November 2007

90.10

89.60

90.63

8 November 2007

90.27

89.86

90.71

9 November 2007

90.43

90.01

90.87

13 November 2007

91.02

90.97

91.07

14 November 2007

90.90

90.89

90.90

15 November 2007

91.35

91.52

91.15

16 November 2007

91.23

91.30

91.15

19 November 2007

91.42

91.49

91.33

20 November 2007

91.18

91.14

91.21

21 November 2007

91.24

91.01

91.48

22 November 2007

91.23

91.01

91.46

23 November 2007

91.12

90.93

91.32

26 November 2007

91.04

90.76

91.33

27 November 2007

91.30

91.24

91.36

28 November 2007

91.33

91.48

91.16

29 November 2007

91.26

91.45

91.04

30 November 2007

91.49

92.07

90.86

3 December 2007

91.52

92.01

90.99

4 December 2007

91.53

92.00

91.03

5 December 2007

91.72

92.59

90.78

6 December 2007

91.77

92.68

90.80

7 December 2007

91.59

92.49

90.64

10 December 2007

91.54

92.44

90.58

11 December 2007

91.57

92.53

90.53

12 December 2007

91.60

92.59

90.54

13 December 2007

91.97

93.23

90.62

14 December 2007

92.27

93.65

90.79

17 December 2007

92.38

93.62

91.06

18 December 2007

92.40

93.68

91.04

19 December 2007

92.45

93.79

91.03

20 December 2007

92.30

93.51

91.01

21 December 2007

92.21

93.50

90.84

24 December 2007

92.03

93.26

90.72

26 December 2007

91.78

92.83

90.66

27 December 2007

91.54

92.46

90.56

28 December 2007

91.26

91.92

90.55

31 December 2007

91.43

92.33

90.48

2 January 2008

91.15

91.80

90.45

3 January 2008

91.02

91.75

90.23

4 January 2008

91.02

91.69

90.30

7 January 2008

91.33

92.27

90.33

8 January 2008

91.11

91.99

90.17

9 January 2008

91.42

92.50

90.28

10 January 2008

91.38

92.43

90.25

11 January 2008

91.28

92.43

90.06

14 January 2008

91.03

92.09

89.91

15 January 2008

90.90

91.86

89.87

16 January 2008

91.39

92.61

90.10

17 January 2008

91.38

92.55

90.13

18 January 2008

91.62

92.81

90.35

22 January 2008

91.57

92.69

90.37

23 January 2008

91.62

92.67

90.50

24 January 2008

90.96

91.75

90.12

25 January 2008

90.97

91.91

89.97

28 January 2008

90.72

91.49

89.90

29 January 2008

90.60

91.41

89.73

30 January 2008

90.52

91.27

89.73

31 January 2008

90.43

91.26

89.54

1 February 2008

90.25

91.00

89.44

4 February 2008

90.25

91.03

89.41

5 February 2008

90.80

91.95

89.58

6 February 2008

90.72

91.84

89.52

7 February 2008

91.12

92.58

89.56

8 February 2008

90.93

92.25

89.53

11 February 2008

90.93

92.19

89.60

12 February 2008

90.70

91.87

89.45

13 February 2008

90.89

92.16

89.53

14 February 2008

90.67

91.83

89.43

15 February 2008

90.64

91.84

89.37

19 February 2008

90.69

92.10

89.19

20 February 2008

90.96

92.51

89.32

21 February 2008

90.45

91.69

89.14

22 February 2008

90.44

91.74

89.04

25 February 2008

90.29

91.38

89.13

26 February 2008

89.86

90.80

88.85

27 February 2008

89.11

89.68

88.49

28 February 2008

88.80

89.30

88.26

29 February 2008

88.92

89.27

88.53

3 March 2008

88.99

89.36

88.58

4 March 2008

89.03

89.46

88.57

5 March 2008

88.90

89.30

88.47

6 March 2008

88.68

88.79

88.55

7 March 2008

88.88

88.96

88.79

10 March 2008

88.91

88.90

88.91

11 March 2008

88.94

89.15

88.72

12 March 2008

88.53

88.47

88.60

13 March 2008

88.19

87.77

88.64

14 March 2008

88.24

87.75

88.76

17 March 2008

88.12

87.30

89.01

18 March 2008

87.92

87.28

88.60

19 March 2008

88.36

88.16

88.56

20 March 2008

89.05

89.30

88.79

21 March 2008

88.95

89.24

88.62

24 March 2008

89.06

89.49

88.58

25 March 2008

88.59

88.77

88.39

26 March 2008

88.32

88.24

88.40

27 March 2008

88.24

88.15

88.32

28 March 2008

88.40

88.39

88.40

31 March 2008

88.44

88.60

88.28

1 April 2008

88.77

89.37

88.13

2 April 2008

88.66

89.22

88.06

3 April 2008

88.43

88.70

88.13

4 April 2008

88.29

88.50

88.07

7 April 2008

88.38

88.78

87.95

8 April 2008

88.51

88.97

88.00

9 April 2008

88.35

88.73

87.94

10 April 2008

88.26

88.78

87.70

11 April 2008

88.26

88.70

87.77

14 April 2008

88.12

88.54

87.67

15 April 2008

88.25

88.67

87.78

16 April 2008

87.71

87.79

87.61

17 April 2008

87.92

88.23

87.58

18 April 2008

88.37

88.94

87.75

21 April 2008

88.12

88.42

87.79

22 April 2008

87.76

87.86

87.66

23 April 2008

88.20

88.77

87.58

24 April 2008

88.51

89.25

87.72

25 April 2008

88.64

89.38

87.84

28 April 2008

88.58

89.31

87.79

29 April 2008

88.65

89.25

88.00

30 April 2008

88.69

89.36

87.98

1 May 2008

88.90

89.86

87.89

2 May 2008

89.02

90.11

87.86

5 May 2008

88.85

89.80

87.84

6 May 2008

88.64

89.29

87.95

7 May 2008

89.12

89.85

88.34

8 May 2008

89.23

89.88

88.54

9 May 2008

89.02

89.42

88.59

12 May 2008

88.84

89.24

88.41

13 May 2008

88.94

89.35

88.49

14 May 2008

89.18

89.67

88.66

15 May 2008

89.00

89.43

88.52

16 May 2008

88.60

88.93

88.23

19 May 2008

88.63

89.11

88.11

20 May 2008

88.40

88.56

88.22

21 May 2008

87.99

88.03

87.94

22 May 2008

88.15

88.32

87.96

23 May 2008

88.03

88.05

88.01

27 May 2008

88.29

88.45

88.11

28 May 2008

88.34

88.72

87.92

29 May 2008

88.41

88.99

87.79

30 May 2008

88.40

89.08

87.67

2 June 2008

88.45

89.19

87.64

3 June 2008

88.65

89.66

87.58

4 June 2008

88.91

89.89

87.87

5 June 2008

88.92

89.96

87.81

6 June 2008

88.66

89.37

87.87

9 June 2008

88.77

89.61

87.85

10 June 2008

89.28

90.50

88.00

Note. Last daily observation is for June 19, 2008. The Broad series ends at about 89, the Major Currencies series ends at about 90, and the Other Important Trading Partners series ends at
about 87.5.

Figure: Stock price indexes: Industrial countries
Daily
Index(12/30/04=100)

Date
4 January 2005

UK (FTSE-350) Euro Area (DJ Euro) Japan (Topix)
100.60

100.93

100.33

5 January 2005

99.74

100.19

99.45

6 January 2005

100.07

100.79

99.86

7 January 2005

100.69

101.21

99.66

10 January 2005

100.44

101.19

ND

11 January 2005

100.04

100.36

100.67

12 January 2005

99.46

99.69

99.85

13 January 2005

99.85

100.10

99.17

14 January 2005

100.27

100.47

99.66

17 January 2005

100.79

101.01

100.06

18 January 2005

100.35

100.97

99.62

19 January 2005

100.31

100.99

99.54

20 January 2005

100.00

100.40

98.59

21 January 2005

100.05

100.50

98.48

24 January 2005

100.17

100.28

99.09

25 January 2005

100.77

100.99

98.99

26 January 2005

100.87

100.99

99.59

27 January 2005

100.97

101.35

99.33

28 January 2005

100.61

100.98

99.22

31 January 2005

101.08

101.94

99.70

1 February 2005

102.15

102.67

99.73

2 February 2005

102.40

102.82

100.20

3 February 2005

102.28

102.82

99.99

4 February 2005

102.93

103.76

99.64

7 February 2005

103.66

104.29

100.42

8 February 2005

104.02

104.42

100.50

9 February 2005

103.91

104.15

100.54

10 February 2005

104.07

104.04

100.96

11 February 2005

104.91

105.15

ND

14 February 2005

104.87

105.12

101.65

15 February 2005

105.16

105.60

101.61

16 February 2005

104.92

105.09

101.33

17 February 2005

105.00

105.18

101.07

18 February 2005

104.98

105.31

101.47

21 February 2005

104.92

104.86

101.49

22 February 2005

104.34

104.24

101.12

23 February 2005

103.51

103.72

100.29

24 February 2005

103.24

103.73

100.69

25 February 2005

103.98

104.92

101.54

28 February 2005

103.32

104.73

102.42

1 March 2005

103.95

105.35

102.63

2 March 2005

103.77

105.31

103.14

3 March 2005

104.18

105.19

103.47

4 March 2005

104.65

106.09

103.70

7 March 2005

104.46

106.31

104.37

8 March 2005

104.10

105.73

103.98

9 March 2005

103.81

105.25

104.44

10 March 2005

103.16

104.37

103.98

11 March 2005

103.59

104.56

104.38

14 March 2005

103.44

104.50

103.99

15 March 2005

103.91

105.12

103.76

16 March 2005

102.67

103.57

104.23

17 March 2005

102.37

103.70

103.71

18 March 2005

102.46

104.12

104.67

21 March 2005

102.65

103.68

ND

22 March 2005

102.65

104.00

104.60

23 March 2005

101.95

103.67

103.85

24 March 2005

102.28

104.51

103.38

25 March 2005

ND

ND

103.84

28 March 2005

ND

ND

103.86

29 March 2005

102.17

104.61

102.26

30 March 2005

101.76

104.25

101.69

31 March 2005

101.75

104.30

102.83

1 April 2005

102.20

104.66

103.21

4 April 2005

101.80

104.07

102.92

5 April 2005

102.68

104.76

103.49

6 April 2005

102.87

105.29

104.05

7 April 2005

103.44

105.71

104.11

8 April 2005

103.61

105.78

104.49

11 April 2005

103.38

105.54

103.52

12 April 2005

102.87

105.08

102.58

13 April 2005

103.16

105.56

102.33

14 April 2005

102.72

105.27

101.63

15 April 2005

101.58

103.25

100.09

18 April 2005

100.14

101.08

96.51

19 April 2005

100.79

101.45

98.01

20 April 2005

100.15

101.13

98.43

21 April 2005

100.09

101.29

97.71

22 April 2005

100.70

102.01

98.37

25 April 2005

100.99

102.28

98.48

26 April 2005

100.52

102.07

98.41

27 April 2005

99.26

100.59

98.32

28 April 2005

99.09

100.13

98.29

29 April 2005

99.28

100.20

ND

2 May 2005

ND

100.90

98.45

3 May 2005

100.46

101.23

ND

4 May 2005

100.75

101.76

ND

5 May 2005

101.20

102.49

ND

6 May 2005

101.47

102.87

100.10

9 May 2005

101.34

102.59

100.25

10 May 2005

100.93

101.93

100.00

11 May 2005

100.62

101.73

99.62

12 May 2005

101.07

102.37

99.20

13 May 2005

100.92

102.43

98.71

16 May 2005

100.90

102.28

97.72

17 May 2005

101.21

102.09

96.71

18 May 2005

102.17

103.69

96.48

19 May 2005

102.56

104.18

98.42

20 May 2005

102.73

104.27

98.28

23 May 2005

103.16

104.79

98.96

24 May 2005

103.05

104.54

98.84

25 May 2005

102.90

104.47

97.83

26 May 2005

103.46

105.28

97.73

27 May 2005

103.33

105.21

98.50

30 May 2005

ND

105.68

99.32

31 May 2005

102.95

105.19

99.54

1 June 2005

103.86

106.71

99.99

2 June 2005

103.80

106.81

99.93

3 June 2005

103.77

106.43

99.83

6 June 2005

103.40

106.01

99.63

7 June 2005

104.31

107.05

99.27

8 June 2005

103.89

106.88

99.91

9 June 2005

103.97

106.84

99.05

10 June 2005

104.44

107.54

99.94

13 June 2005

104.89

108.02

100.00

14 June 2005

104.78

108.09

100.06

15 June 2005

104.23

107.63

100.75

16 June 2005

104.81

108.14

100.95

17 June 2005

105.47

108.67

101.97

20 June 2005

105.33

108.14

101.83

21 June 2005

105.44

108.68

101.70

22 June 2005

105.83

108.87

102.05

23 June 2005

106.18

109.12

102.12

24 June 2005

105.44

108.19

102.07

27 June 2005

104.68

107.24

101.03

28 June 2005

105.61

108.17

101.78

29 June 2005

105.98

108.80

102.34

30 June 2005

106.13

108.90

102.40

1 July 2005

107.14

109.73

102.80

4 July 2005

107.53

109.90

103.17

5 July 2005

107.58

109.66

102.94

6 July 2005

108.47

110.16

102.96

7 July 2005

106.98

108.43

102.66

8 July 2005

108.56

110.09

102.43

11 July 2005

108.84

110.88

103.08

12 July 2005

108.33

110.58

103.16

13 July 2005

108.85

111.28

103.14

14 July 2005

109.03

111.80

103.61

15 July 2005

108.44

111.76

103.80

18 July 2005

108.07

111.74

ND

19 July 2005

107.80

112.97

103.64

20 July 2005

108.09

112.73

104.06

21 July 2005

108.26

112.81

103.93

22 July 2005

108.68

112.70

103.23

25 July 2005

109.21

112.78

103.54

26 July 2005

108.93

112.90

103.43

27 July 2005

109.19

113.24

104.29

28 July 2005

109.35

113.84

104.53

29 July 2005

109.62

113.64

104.81

1 August 2005

109.80

113.63

105.39

2 August 2005

110.49

114.43

105.18

3 August 2005

110.65

114.38

105.43

4 August 2005

110.37

113.48

104.74

5 August 2005

110.35

112.72

103.44

8 August 2005

110.86

113.14

103.68

9 August 2005

111.27

114.21

104.93

10 August 2005

111.58

115.37

106.80

11 August 2005

111.16

114.83

108.19

12 August 2005

110.95

114.20

108.31

15 August 2005

110.93

114.00

108.62

16 August 2005

110.51

113.49

108.92

17 August 2005

109.90

113.13

108.74

18 August 2005

109.41

112.67

108.99

19 August 2005

110.28

113.95

108.77

22 August 2005

110.43

114.15

110.45

23 August 2005

110.14

113.30

110.64

24 August 2005

109.68

113.11

110.96

25 August 2005

109.28

112.10

110.30

26 August 2005

108.82

111.17

110.68

29 August 2005

ND

111.56

109.48

30 August 2005

109.36

111.44

110.78

31 August 2005

110.16

112.43

110.58

1 September 2005

110.82

113.05

111.11

2 September 2005

110.77

112.91

111.58

5 September 2005

110.97

113.73

112.26

6 September 2005

111.36

114.80

111.89

7 September 2005

111.59

115.15

111.82

8 September 2005

111.06

115.08

111.24

9 September 2005

111.47

115.49

112.50

12 September 2005

111.85

115.45

113.93

13 September 2005

111.06

114.56

114.45

14 September 2005

111.28

114.96

114.15

15 September 2005

111.94

115.00

115.45

16 September 2005

112.44

115.87

115.59

19 September 2005

112.89

115.58

ND

20 September 2005

112.65

116.18

117.65

21 September 2005

111.65

114.78

118.10

22 September 2005

111.92

114.31

117.97

23 September 2005

112.48

114.95

ND

26 September 2005

113.25

116.79

120.60

27 September 2005

113.13

116.34

119.75

28 September 2005

114.07

117.59

121.91

29 September 2005

113.76

117.17

124.23

30 September 2005

113.80

117.74

122.85

3 October 2005

114.26

118.46

122.76

4 October 2005

114.15

119.01

123.68

5 October 2005

112.77

117.77

122.62

6 October 2005

111.56

116.52

119.29

7 October 2005

111.32

116.19

119.39

10 October 2005

111.59

116.44

ND

11 October 2005

111.78

116.66

122.30

12 October 2005

110.98

115.79

122.38

13 October 2005

109.34

114.58

122.46

14 October 2005

109.52

114.98

121.60

17 October 2005

109.73

115.09

121.21

18 October 2005

109.29

114.45

121.14

19 October 2005

107.20

112.32

120.02

20 October 2005

107.26

112.56

120.38

21 October 2005

106.80

112.07

120.51

24 October 2005

108.16

113.39

119.73

25 October 2005

107.68

112.96

121.22

26 October 2005

108.69

113.32

122.45

27 October 2005

107.69

111.44

123.85

28 October 2005

108.18

111.49

123.50

31 October 2005

110.45

113.89

125.67

1 November 2005

111.06

113.88

128.13

2 November 2005

111.50

114.20

128.24

3 November 2005

113.00

115.52

ND

4 November 2005

112.81

115.31

130.04

7 November 2005

113.60

115.64

130.40

8 November 2005

113.60

115.61

130.26

9 November 2005

113.19

115.54

129.41

10 November 2005

112.92

115.61

129.14

11 November 2005

113.75

116.99

130.00

14 November 2005

113.92

117.16

128.77

15 November 2005

113.39

117.10

128.08

16 November 2005

113.15

116.52

129.29

17 November 2005

113.77

117.03

131.38

18 November 2005

114.63

117.72

133.23

21 November 2005

114.70

118.25

132.87

22 November 2005

115.07

118.31

132.79

23 November 2005

115.45

118.99

ND

24 November 2005

115.05

118.69

132.01

25 November 2005

115.34

118.97

133.06

28 November 2005

114.49

118.52

134.25

29 November 2005

114.80

118.80

134.35

30 November 2005

113.54

118.34

133.63

1 December 2005

114.81

119.99

135.68

2 December 2005

115.75

120.63

137.76

5 December 2005

115.40

120.17

138.96

6 December 2005

115.93

120.77

138.42

7 December 2005

115.78

120.54

139.05

8 December 2005

115.71

120.72

136.46

9 December 2005

115.53

120.54

138.41

12 December 2005

115.27

120.88

140.70

13 December 2005

115.42

121.11

141.45

14 December 2005

115.62

120.88

139.37

15 December 2005

115.20

120.96

137.75

16 December 2005

115.97

121.99

137.50

19 December 2005

116.15

121.88

138.24

20 December 2005

116.30

122.04

140.39

21 December 2005

117.14

123.02

142.34

22 December 2005

117.43

123.03

142.47

23 December 2005

117.47

123.32

ND

26 December 2005

ND

ND

143.43

27 December 2005

ND

123.78

142.47

28 December 2005

117.93

123.63

143.87

29 December 2005

118.36

124.00

144.72

30 December 2005

117.95

123.02

143.50

2 January 2006

ND

123.87

ND

3 January 2006

119.27

124.38

ND

4 January 2006

119.99

125.63

145.53

5 January 2006

119.46

125.46

146.58

6 January 2006

120.22

126.00

146.56

9 January 2006

120.18

126.27

ND

10 January 2006

119.31

125.55

144.31

11 January 2006

120.24

126.48

145.48

12 January 2006

120.33

126.64

146.51

13 January 2006

119.86

125.51

146.28

16 January 2006

120.43

126.03

145.28

17 January 2006

119.57

125.00

141.92

18 January 2006

118.86

123.86

136.97

19 January 2006

119.60

124.79

140.94

20 January 2006

119.25

123.63

141.30

23 January 2006

118.94

123.39

138.12

24 January 2006

118.48

123.24

140.26

25 January 2006

120.00

124.64

140.78

26 January 2006

120.37

126.43

142.94

27 January 2006

121.77

127.98

147.03

30 January 2006

121.57

127.87

148.25

31 January 2006

121.22

128.09

148.81

1 February 2006

122.16

129.42

147.37

2 February 2006

121.11

127.99

148.83

3 February 2006

121.34

128.15

148.57

6 February 2006

121.66

128.53

148.94

7 February 2006

121.11

128.54

149.05

8 February 2006

120.72

128.23

145.38

9 February 2006

122.47

129.83

146.33

10 February 2006

121.58

129.05

144.41

13 February 2006

122.13

129.95

140.74

14 February 2006

122.08

130.03

142.24

15 February 2006

122.09

129.99

141.29

16 February 2006

122.83

130.83

141.91

17 February 2006

123.34

131.29

139.64

20 February 2006

123.61

131.43

136.75

21 February 2006

123.52

131.82

140.27

22 February 2006

123.81

132.99

140.00

23 February 2006

123.15

132.93

142.70

24 February 2006

123.61

133.38

143.33

27 February 2006

123.94

133.96

144.12

28 February 2006

122.31

131.95

144.43

1 March 2006

123.36

133.05

142.27

2 March 2006

123.15

131.80

141.98

3 March 2006

123.56

131.16

140.30

6 March 2006

124.41

131.87

141.48

7 March 2006

123.52

131.21

140.73

8 March 2006

122.42

130.37

139.66

9 March 2006

123.34

131.55

142.74

10 March 2006

124.37

132.79

143.29

13 March 2006

125.49

133.85

145.67

14 March 2006

125.55

134.10

144.90

15 March 2006

125.97

134.58

144.98

16 March 2006

126.64

134.62

143.09

17 March 2006

126.81

134.72

144.74

20 March 2006

126.61

135.11

146.85

21 March 2006

126.59

135.30

ND

22 March 2006

126.98

135.71

146.69

23 March 2006

126.65

135.63

146.14

24 March 2006

127.63

136.06

146.95

27 March 2006

126.33

134.86

147.34

28 March 2006

125.60

134.20

147.24

29 March 2006

126.04

134.73

148.88

30 March 2006

127.11

136.20

150.19

31 March 2006

126.19

135.70

150.32

3 April 2006

127.32

136.60

152.63

4 April 2006

126.99

135.88

152.19

5 April 2006

127.78

136.35

151.88

6 April 2006

127.85

136.47

154.46

7 April 2006

127.44

135.34

155.16

10 April 2006

128.09

135.88

154.60

11 April 2006

126.92

133.97

153.98

12 April 2006

126.55

133.51

151.60

13 April 2006

127.21

133.67

151.68

14 April 2006

ND

ND

151.71

17 April 2006

ND

ND

149.53

18 April 2006

127.50

133.36

151.51

19 April 2006

128.48

135.06

151.99

20 April 2006

128.37

136.26

152.04

21 April 2006

129.41

137.34

152.78

24 April 2006

128.79

136.65

148.81

25 April 2006

128.61

136.81

149.59

26 April 2006

128.99

137.28

149.90

27 April 2006

128.05

136.44

150.43

28 April 2006

127.30

135.51

149.30

1 May 2006

ND

ND

149.37

2 May 2006

128.45

136.35

151.11

3 May 2006

127.10

135.25

ND

4 May 2006

127.69

136.08

ND

5 May 2006

128.97

137.27

ND

8 May 2006

128.57

137.56

152.66

9 May 2006

129.27

137.98

152.01

10 May 2006

128.82

137.29

150.05

11 May 2006

128.02

136.44

148.86

12 May 2006

125.17

133.42

146.85

15 May 2006

123.41

131.57

146.29

16 May 2006

123.47

131.75

143.09

17 May 2006

119.89

127.73

144.14

18 May 2006

119.55

127.25

141.97

19 May 2006

119.40

127.71

142.53

22 May 2006

116.46

123.94

140.55

23 May 2006

119.87

126.92

137.37

24 May 2006

117.87

125.48

139.70

25 May 2006

119.77

127.23

137.85

26 May 2006

122.41

129.63

140.37

29 May 2006

ND

129.31

140.58

30 May 2006

119.39

126.35

140.29

31 May 2006

120.80

127.74

137.43

1 June 2006

121.29

128.16

137.83

2 June 2006

121.82

128.19

139.71

5 June 2006

121.59

127.18

138.73

6 June 2006

119.40

124.25

136.33

7 June 2006

120.12

125.08

133.39

8 June 2006

116.98

121.71

128.93

9 June 2006

119.04

123.56

130.36

12 June 2006

118.34

122.28

131.42

13 June 2006

116.02

119.59

126.85

14 June 2006

115.91

119.78

127.53

15 June 2006

118.54

122.79

129.26

16 June 2006

118.14

121.93

133.50

19 June 2006

118.69

122.92

132.88

20 June 2006

119.28

123.61

131.37

21 June 2006

119.35

123.85

130.96

22 June 2006

119.88

124.54

134.75

23 June 2006

120.03

124.73

134.44

26 June 2006

119.84

124.55

134.74

27 June 2006

119.32

123.69

134.77

28 June 2006

119.79

123.52

132.87

29 June 2006

122.03

125.91

134.63

30 June 2006

123.01

128.15

138.04

3 July 2006

124.07

128.74

138.59

4 July 2006

124.07

128.97

139.39

5 July 2006

122.89

127.27

138.30

6 July 2006

124.11

128.50

136.76

7 July 2006

124.03

128.11

136.84

10 July 2006

124.09

128.63

138.66

11 July 2006

123.25

127.12

137.94

12 July 2006

123.39

127.68

136.02

13 July 2006

121.31

125.48

134.92

14 July 2006

120.09

123.70

132.37

17 July 2006

119.86

122.98

ND

18 July 2006

119.42

122.66

128.33

19 July 2006

121.56

125.73

128.34

20 July 2006

121.48

126.12

132.96

21 July 2006

120.38

124.76

131.83

24 July 2006

122.64

127.13

131.71

25 July 2006

123.00

127.23

133.51

26 July 2006

123.54

127.63

132.25

27 July 2006

124.63

129.07

134.11

28 July 2006

125.46

129.87

135.64

31 July 2006

124.59

129.44

136.74

1 August 2006

123.72

128.15

136.31

2 August 2006

124.74

129.83

136.54

3 August 2006

122.80

128.89

136.52

4 August 2006

123.90

130.40

136.71

7 August 2006

122.67

128.63

133.97

8 August 2006

122.50

128.95

135.93

9 August 2006

123.32

129.96

137.30

10 August 2006

122.53

128.89

137.69

11 August 2006

122.45

128.90

137.25

14 August 2006

123.46

130.24

139.26

15 August 2006

124.05

131.55

139.62

16 August 2006

124.20

132.54

141.76

17 August 2006

124.34

132.95

141.91

18 August 2006

124.44

132.75

142.78

21 August 2006

124.64

132.25

141.28

22 August 2006

124.39

132.77

142.81

23 August 2006

123.55

131.86

142.68

24 August 2006

123.72

132.58

141.18

25 August 2006

123.96

132.65

140.90

28 August 2006

ND

133.45

139.20

29 August 2006

124.20

133.56

140.57

30 August 2006

125.04

134.12

140.28

31 August 2006

124.66

133.86

142.17

1 September 2006

125.63

134.44

142.08

4 September 2006

126.41

135.05

143.47

5 September 2006

126.32

134.42

143.64

6 September 2006

125.26

133.05

142.90

7 September 2006

123.74

131.94

140.35

8 September 2006

124.18

132.40

140.91

11 September 2006

123.51

132.04

138.87

12 September 2006

124.47

133.55

137.96

13 September 2006

124.53

134.09

137.74

14 September 2006

124.37

134.01

139.01

15 September 2006

124.48

134.57

138.60

18 September 2006

124.74

134.57

ND

19 September 2006

123.57

133.70

138.48

20 September 2006

124.29

135.47

136.58

21 September 2006

124.96

135.92

137.44

22 September 2006

123.48

134.49

136.01

25 September 2006

123.00

134.64

135.68

26 September 2006

124.53

136.30

134.77

27 September 2006

125.67

137.27

138.40

28 September 2006

126.54

137.41

139.40

29 September 2006

126.38

137.60

140.11

2 October 2006

126.38

137.44

141.36

3 October 2006

125.89

136.98

140.73

4 October 2006

126.50

138.02

139.35

5 October 2006

127.42

138.92

142.06

6 October 2006

127.45

138.91

142.15

9 October 2006

127.94

139.05

ND

10 October 2006

128.87

139.90

142.20

11 October 2006

128.89

140.09

141.10

12 October 2006

129.94

141.19

140.36

13 October 2006

130.69

141.25

141.61

16 October 2006

130.92

141.49

143.18

17 October 2006

129.47

139.70

142.48

18 October 2006

130.45

141.13

142.54

19 October 2006

130.55

141.12

142.29

20 October 2006

130.57

141.51

143.02

23 October 2006

130.77

142.18

144.34

24 October 2006

131.14

142.09

144.61

25 October 2006

131.77

142.45

143.82

26 October 2006

131.31

142.58

144.79

27 October 2006

130.67

142.21

143.59

30 October 2006

129.97

141.74

140.97

31 October 2006

130.12

141.84

140.69

1 November 2006

130.56

142.27

141.13

2 November 2006

130.53

141.15

140.83

3 November 2006

130.49

141.77

ND

6 November 2006

132.08

143.47

140.63

7 November 2006

132.55

144.26

140.63

8 November 2006

132.47

144.28

138.96

9 November 2006

132.38

144.31

138.22

10 November 2006

132.08

144.20

137.55

13 November 2006

131.93

144.92

136.46

14 November 2006

131.81

144.76

138.86

15 November 2006

132.73

145.71

138.48

16 November 2006

133.25

145.86

137.61

17 November 2006

131.89

144.84

136.87

20 November 2006

132.14

145.19

133.43

21 November 2006

132.16

145.45

133.34

22 November 2006

131.27

145.68

135.08

23 November 2006

130.87

145.34

ND

24 November 2006

130.40

144.21

133.79

27 November 2006

128.92

141.82

135.09

28 November 2006

128.49

141.38

135.27

29 November 2006

129.86

143.34

137.44

30 November 2006

129.22

142.11

139.44

1 December 2006

128.78

140.67

139.60

4 December 2006

129.40

141.67

139.85

5 December 2006

130.20

143.05

139.08

6 December 2006

130.32

143.07

140.49

7 December 2006

131.12

143.86

141.16

8 December 2006

131.60

143.94

140.60

11 December 2006

131.81

144.98

141.61

12 December 2006

131.65

145.15

142.37

13 December 2006

132.39

146.30

142.58

14 December 2006

133.16

147.05

143.69

15 December 2006

133.81

147.91

144.17

18 December 2006

133.59

147.81

144.86

19 December 2006

132.73

146.80

143.12

20 December 2006

132.62

147.51

145.00

21 December 2006

132.39

147.34

145.38

22 December 2006

132.54

146.12

145.45

25 December 2006

ND

ND

144.82

26 December 2006

ND

ND

145.48

27 December 2006

133.67

147.99

145.87

28 December 2006

133.65

148.01

146.04

29 December 2006

133.26

147.97

146.23

2 January 2007

135.15

149.97

ND

3 January 2007

135.30

149.99

ND

4 January 2007

134.59

149.42

147.78

5 January 2007

133.27

148.08

145.73

8 January 2007

132.74

148.11

ND

9 January 2007

132.77

148.41

147.19

10 January 2007

132.01

147.25

144.66

11 January 2007

133.33

149.67

144.11

12 January 2007

133.48

150.10

146.59

15 January 2007

134.09

150.70

148.27

16 January 2007

133.07

150.09

148.18

17 January 2007

132.82

149.57

148.46

18 January 2007

132.97

149.43

149.19

19 January 2007

133.55

150.68

149.11

22 January 2007

133.20

149.90

150.51

23 January 2007

133.25

149.75

150.55

24 January 2007

135.00

151.37

151.23

25 January 2007

134.13

150.89

150.43

26 January 2007

133.29

150.02

150.31

29 January 2007

133.48

150.72

150.80

30 January 2007

133.57

151.43

150.62

31 January 2007

132.80

151.00

149.78

1 February 2007

134.46

152.25

151.23

2 February 2007

135.20

152.89

151.56

5 February 2007

135.44

152.98

149.29

6 February 2007

136.09

153.14

150.69

7 February 2007

136.55

153.92

150.34

8 February 2007

136.02

152.97

149.63

9 February 2007

136.84

153.75

151.80

12 February 2007

136.18

152.58

ND

13 February 2007

136.73

153.43

152.74

14 February 2007

137.56

154.64

153.55

15 February 2007

137.85

154.62

154.55

16 February 2007

137.56

154.41

154.36

19 February 2007

138.16

155.18

154.83

20 February 2007

137.49

154.72

155.07

21 February 2007

136.40

154.07

155.46

22 February 2007

136.91

154.44

156.82

23 February 2007

137.32

154.56

157.87

26 February 2007

137.94

155.31

158.05

27 February 2007

134.45

150.57

157.56

28 February 2007

132.20

148.57

152.46

1 March 2007

131.01

146.70

151.36

2 March 2007

131.13

146.25

149.75

5 March 2007

129.74

144.76

144.63

6 March 2007

131.47

145.82

147.22

7 March 2007

132.11

146.62

146.97

8 March 2007

133.73

148.82

149.70

9 March 2007

134.13

149.12

150.51

12 March 2007

133.93

148.50

151.47

13 March 2007

132.34

146.80

150.09

14 March 2007

128.85

142.95

145.69

15 March 2007

131.75

145.80

147.37

16 March 2007

131.79

145.90

145.88

19 March 2007

133.17

148.32

147.36

20 March 2007

133.77

149.18

148.59

21 March 2007

134.71

149.52

ND

22 March 2007

136.00

152.30

150.64

23 March 2007

136.38

153.13

151.52

26 March 2007

135.43

151.77

151.47

27 March 2007

135.41

151.90

149.95

28 March 2007

134.84

150.96

148.84

29 March 2007

136.03

152.87

148.80

30 March 2007

135.78

152.95

149.06

2 April 2007

136.05

153.39

146.35

3 April 2007

137.19

155.25

148.25

4 April 2007

137.17

155.73

150.53

5 April 2007

137.81

156.00

149.68

6 April 2007

ND

ND

149.36

9 April 2007

ND

ND

151.19

10 April 2007

138.32

157.12

150.98

11 April 2007

138.17

156.82

151.27

12 April 2007

138.12

156.30

150.15

13 April 2007

139.01

157.38

148.35

16 April 2007

140.15

159.34

150.10

17 April 2007

139.66

159.28

149.28

18 April 2007

138.68

158.39

150.54

19 April 2007

138.39

157.85

148.48

20 April 2007

139.41

160.27

148.75

23 April 2007

139.32

159.85

148.36

24 April 2007

138.22

158.47

148.41

25 April 2007

138.96

159.78

146.77

26 April 2007

139.16

160.15

148.17

27 April 2007

138.17

159.26

147.96

30 April 2007

138.78

159.44

ND

1 May 2007

138.21

ND

147.29

2 May 2007

139.58

160.28

148.24

3 May 2007

140.60

160.49

ND

4 May 2007

142.10

161.46

ND

7 May 2007

ND

161.58

150.75

8 May 2007

140.94

160.17

150.71

9 May 2007

140.83

160.52

151.79

10 May 2007

140.38

159.43

151.09

11 May 2007

141.09

160.33

149.88

14 May 2007

140.91

160.07

150.57

15 May 2007

141.25

160.95

148.97

16 May 2007

141.09

160.54

148.91

17 May 2007

141.53

160.90

148.51

18 May 2007

142.76

162.58

147.50

21 May 2007

142.68

162.21

148.80

22 May 2007

142.09

162.50

150.62

23 May 2007

142.34

163.59

151.36

24 May 2007

141.25

162.22

151.19

25 May 2007

141.22

162.35

149.23

28 May 2007

ND

ND

149.99

29 May 2007

141.96

162.87

151.17

30 May 2007

141.73

162.50

150.81

31 May 2007

142.24

164.28

152.72

1 June 2007

143.40

165.63

153.78

4 June 2007

143.06

164.97

154.21

5 June 2007

142.37

164.01

154.53

6 June 2007

139.85

160.91

154.70

7 June 2007

139.25

158.96

154.81

8 June 2007

139.18

158.70

152.76

11 June 2007

140.41

160.33

153.19

12 June 2007

139.45

159.23

152.36

13 June 2007

140.19

159.74

151.87

14 June 2007

142.22

162.66

152.80

15 June 2007

144.06

164.89

154.22

18 June 2007

143.44

164.27

155.56

19 June 2007

142.24

163.91

154.88

20 June 2007

142.19

164.52

155.16

21 June 2007

140.89

162.66

155.65

22 June 2007

140.32

162.21

154.66

25 June 2007

140.68

161.84

153.52

26 June 2007

140.08

160.61

153.60

27 June 2007

139.25

159.75

151.45

28 June 2007

140.27

161.53

152.32

29 June 2007

140.95

162.60

154.39

2 July 2007

140.65

162.13

154.86

3 July 2007

141.92

163.43

154.99

4 July 2007

142.68

164.14

155.04

5 July 2007

141.94

162.96

155.54

6 July 2007

143.05

164.07

154.80

9 July 2007

143.45

164.35

155.90

10 July 2007

141.73

162.52

155.63

11 July 2007

141.33

161.66

153.76

12 July 2007

143.09

163.94

153.36

13 July 2007

143.64

164.63

155.11

16 July 2007

143.28

165.00

ND

17 July 2007

142.37

164.20

154.67

18 July 2007

140.56

162.15

152.98

19 July 2007

142.17

163.77

153.79

20 July 2007

141.06

161.40

154.50

23 July 2007

141.71

162.51

152.86

24 July 2007

139.06

160.04

153.61

25 July 2007

137.95

158.41

152.57

26 July 2007

133.57

154.37

151.11

27 July 2007

132.82

153.65

147.85

30 July 2007

132.82

153.45

148.37

31 July 2007

136.09

156.35

148.41

1 August 2007

133.83

153.67

145.16

2 August 2007

134.82

155.04

145.21

3 August 2007

133.35

153.11

145.49

6 August 2007

132.38

151.88

145.09

7 August 2007

134.98

153.88

144.41

8 August 2007

136.92

156.93

145.18

9 August 2007

134.25

153.94

146.47

10 August 2007

129.44

149.92

142.13

13 August 2007

133.22

152.95

142.01

14 August 2007

131.55

151.28

142.43

15 August 2007

130.73

150.74

138.67

16 August 2007

125.41

145.69

136.34

17 August 2007

129.54

148.32

128.77

20 August 2007

129.84

149.30

132.53

21 August 2007

129.86

149.55

134.82

22 August 2007

132.34

151.94

134.38

23 August 2007

132.42

152.11

138.46

24 August 2007

132.89

152.68

137.94

27 August 2007

ND

152.91

138.11

28 August 2007

130.43

150.50

137.84

29 August 2007

131.15

151.35

135.48

30 August 2007

132.97

153.08

136.41

31 August 2007

135.01

154.95

139.89

3 September 2007

135.31

155.25

139.65

4 September 2007

136.70

156.16

138.89

5 September 2007

134.40

153.08

136.52

6 September 2007

135.23

153.62

136.44

7 September 2007

132.60

150.09

135.44

10 September 2007

131.33

148.84

132.67

11 September 2007

134.42

151.06

133.29

12 September 2007

134.90

151.38

132.94

13 September 2007

135.87

152.67

132.47

14 September 2007

134.12

151.53

134.37

17 September 2007

131.81

149.85

ND

18 September 2007

133.74

152.45

131.43

19 September 2007

137.56

156.77

136.36

20 September 2007

136.78

155.84

136.29

21 September 2007

137.43

156.50

135.01

24 September 2007

137.50

156.25

ND

25 September 2007

135.91

154.91

136.29

26 September 2007

136.63

156.24

137.09

27 September 2007

137.87

157.26

140.49

28 September 2007

137.51

157.05

140.62

1 October 2007

138.31

158.25

140.56

2 October 2007

138.46

159.04

142.64

3 October 2007

139.33

159.18

144.74

4 October 2007

139.58

159.20

144.01

5 October 2007

140.49

160.49

144.13

8 October 2007

139.38

160.09

ND

9 October 2007

140.91

160.75

144.40

10 October 2007

141.38

160.68

144.24

11 October 2007

143.24

161.66

145.92

12 October 2007

143.28

161.67

144.35

15 October 2007

141.46

160.19

144.17

16 October 2007

140.78

159.42

141.37

17 October 2007

142.24

160.41

139.20

18 October 2007

140.77

159.42

140.72

19 October 2007

139.09

158.91

138.42

22 October 2007

137.62

156.78

135.96

23 October 2007

138.94

158.11

136.61

24 October 2007

138.21

157.20

136.03

25 October 2007

140.29

159.17

134.66

26 October 2007

141.89

159.98

136.91

29 October 2007

142.78

161.02

139.74

30 October 2007

141.79

160.43

139.80

31 October 2007

143.27

161.61

140.92

1 November 2007

140.55

159.12

142.29

2 November 2007

139.39

158.71

139.19

5 November 2007

137.90

157.77

137.01

6 November 2007

138.18

158.36

136.96

7 November 2007

136.19

157.59

135.41

8 November 2007

135.95

156.25

131.95

9 November 2007

134.24

154.07

129.99

12 November 2007

134.91

154.24

126.68

13 November 2007

135.39

154.29

126.54

14 November 2007

136.93

155.24

130.28

15 November 2007

135.31

153.65

130.38

16 November 2007

133.83

152.69

128.01

19 November 2007

130.08

150.00

126.70

20 November 2007

132.18

151.56

127.80

21 November 2007

128.83

148.18

125.15

22 November 2007

130.55

148.69

125.03

23 November 2007

132.88

150.98

ND

26 November 2007

131.25

150.16

127.61

27 November 2007

130.24

149.73

128.63

28 November 2007

133.79

153.31

128.36

29 November 2007

134.71

154.13

131.74

30 November 2007

136.38

156.06

133.25

3 December 2007

135.20

155.27

133.27

4 December 2007

133.39

153.58

131.82

5 December 2007

137.08

156.10

132.79

6 December 2007

136.90

156.28

135.02

7 December 2007

138.41

157.44

135.85

10 December 2007

138.59

158.25

135.57

11 December 2007

138.11

157.81

136.31

12 December 2007

138.52

158.13

135.43

13 December 2007

134.40

154.60

131.88

14 December 2007

135.14

155.13

130.59

17 December 2007

132.48

152.42

128.10

18 December 2007

132.59

152.41

127.85

19 December 2007

132.77

151.90

126.72

20 December 2007

134.17

152.27

126.79

21 December 2007

136.02

154.57

127.80

24 December 2007

136.95

ND

ND

25 December 2007

136.95

ND

130.13

26 December 2007

136.95

ND

131.21

27 December 2007

137.32

155.07

130.47

28 December 2007

137.01

155.24

128.36

31 December 2007

136.66

155.17

ND

2 January 2008

135.90

153.31

ND

3 January 2008

136.87

152.67

ND

4 January 2008

134.00

150.21

122.81

7 January 2008

133.48

149.93

121.14

8 January 2008

133.97

150.52

122.04

9 January 2008

132.10

148.76

123.89

10 January 2008

130.90

147.56

121.90

11 January 2008

130.57

147.18

119.83

14 January 2008

131.17

147.87

ND

15 January 2008

127.22

143.92

117.45

16 January 2008

125.47

142.43

113.29

17 January 2008

124.79

141.33

115.73

18 January 2008

124.80

139.47

116.69

21 January 2008

118.15

130.41

112.54

22 January 2008

121.72

132.46

106.12

23 January 2008

119.11

127.29

108.72

24 January 2008

124.62

134.94

111.73

25 January 2008

124.30

134.62

116.97

28 January 2008

122.66

133.90

112.47

29 January 2008

124.88

136.09

115.58

30 January 2008

124.00

135.18

114.83

31 January 2008

124.74

134.85

117.11

1 February 2008

128.00

137.65

116.29

4 February 2008

128.07

138.01

118.71

5 February 2008

124.65

132.72

117.91

6 February 2008

124.70

133.97

112.94

7 February 2008

121.68

131.64

113.52

8 February 2008

122.85

131.69

111.96

11 February 2008

121.33

130.78

ND

12 February 2008

125.56

135.17

111.87

13 February 2008

124.94

135.57

111.81

14 February 2008

125.08

135.60

115.90

15 February 2008

123.07

133.13

116.11

18 February 2008

126.31

135.55

115.95

19 February 2008

126.89

136.14

117.02

20 February 2008

125.40

134.51

113.32

21 February 2008

126.20

135.26

116.10

22 February 2008

125.18

133.87

114.94

25 February 2008

127.60

135.99

117.91

26 February 2008

129.40

137.98

117.21

27 February 2008

129.26

137.86

118.69

28 February 2008

126.90

135.40

117.70

29 February 2008

125.13

133.43

115.19

3 March 2008

123.83

131.64

110.57

4 March 2008

122.78

129.45

110.09

5 March 2008

124.69

132.19

109.94

6 March 2008

122.83

130.05

112.00

7 March 2008

121.38

128.51

108.54

10 March 2008

119.77

127.04

106.50

11 March 2008

121.07

128.99

107.44

12 March 2008

123.01

130.46

109.18

13 March 2008

121.15

128.51

105.76

14 March 2008

119.88

127.55

103.79

17 March 2008

115.34

122.72

100.00

18 March 2008

119.23

126.70

101.22

19 March 2008

118.03

125.63

104.06

20 March 2008

116.94

125.03

ND

21 March 2008

ND

ND

106.12

24 March 2008

ND

ND

106.48

25 March 2008

121.08

129.34

108.12

26 March 2008

120.49

128.94

107.65

27 March 2008

121.92

130.40

106.68

28 March 2008

121.43

130.05

108.19

31 March 2008

121.68

129.77

105.51

1 April 2008

124.99

133.93

107.03

2 April 2008

126.22

135.35

111.52

3 April 2008

125.44

134.40

113.05

4 April 2008

126.45

135.05

112.12

7 April 2008

127.83

136.26

113.57

8 April 2008

127.16

135.29

111.57

9 April 2008

126.98

134.26

109.85

10 April 2008

126.54

133.63

108.56

11 April 2008

125.12

131.90

111.22

14 April 2008

123.80

130.86

108.40

15 April 2008

125.28

131.44

109.25

16 April 2008

128.16

133.76

110.63

17 April 2008

126.94

133.05

112.50

18 April 2008

128.60

135.97

113.43

21 April 2008

128.36

134.73

115.82

22 April 2008

127.91

133.74

114.08

23 April 2008

128.85

134.82

114.33

24 April 2008

128.05

134.70

113.74

25 April 2008

128.87

135.96

116.55

28 April 2008

129.02

136.76

118.45

29 April 2008

128.82

135.88

ND

30 April 2008

128.97

136.97

118.18

1 May 2008

128.89

ND

117.09

2 May 2008

131.61

138.96

119.81

5 May 2008

ND

138.83

ND

6 May 2008

131.67

137.99

ND

7 May 2008

132.71

139.13

121.19

8 May 2008

133.06

138.67

119.43

9 May 2008

131.65

136.93

116.71

12 May 2008

132.10

137.40

116.80

13 May 2008

131.68

137.59

118.30

14 May 2008

131.59

138.89

119.43

15 May 2008

132.36

138.87

121.16

16 May 2008

133.52

139.36

121.42

19 May 2008

135.02

140.33

122.15

20 May 2008

131.11

137.83

121.76

21 May 2008

131.09

136.76

119.18

22 May 2008

130.82

136.80

120.01

23 May 2008

128.89

134.44

119.75

26 May 2008

ND

134.29

116.92

27 May 2008

128.29

133.82

119.02

28 May 2008

128.54

135.13

117.32

29 May 2008

128.57

135.33

120.09

30 May 2008

128.22

136.39

122.49

2 June 2008

127.18

134.46

123.96

3 June 2008

128.20

135.15

122.43

4 June 2008

126.57

133.84

124.43

5 June 2008

127.09

133.62

123.91

6 June 2008

125.16

130.61

124.22

9 June 2008

124.47

130.06

121.56

10 June 2008

123.36

129.08

120.32

Note. Last daily observation is for June 19, 2008. The UK (FTSE-350) series ends at about 124, the Euro Area (DJ Euro) series ends at about 125, and the Japan (Topix) series ends at about
120.

Figure: Stock price indexes: Emerging market economies
Daily
Index(12/30/04=100)

Date

Brazil (Bovespa) Korea (KOSPI) Mexico (Bolsa)

4 January 2005

94.85

98.99

98.52

5 January 2005

94.26

98.80

97.09

6 January 2005

93.02

97.25

97.95

7 January 2005

94.47

97.20

96.03

10 January 2005

92.73

97.57

95.97

11 January 2005

93.03

98.70

94.20

12 January 2005

93.56

98.23

95.07

13 January 2005

94.69

98.84

96.10

14 January 2005

95.14

101.02

97.89

17 January 2005

93.58

103.03

98.84

18 January 2005

91.96

102.75

100.47

19 January 2005

92.65

102.27

100.52

20 January 2005

90.13

101.50

98.47

21 January 2005

90.92

102.64

97.72

24 January 2005

92.37

103.03

98.26

25 January 2005

ND

102.14

99.21

26 January 2005

93.64

103.47

100.59

27 January 2005

91.73

103.23

100.14

28 January 2005

91.49

102.87

100.55

31 January 2005

92.95

104.11

100.99

1 February 2005

92.19

103.10

102.87

2 February 2005

93.93

102.85

102.86

3 February 2005

94.95

103.67

103.64

4 February 2005

98.23

104.20

103.69

7 February 2005

ND

105.95

103.92

8 February 2005

ND

ND

104.16

9 February 2005

100.45

ND

105.35

10 February 2005

100.84

ND

105.71

11 February 2005

101.81

105.73

105.75

14 February 2005

101.28

107.69

104.60

15 February 2005

101.58

108.14

105.61

16 February 2005

100.72

108.44

105.18

17 February 2005

103.42

108.55

104.81

18 February 2005

102.14

109.84

104.72

21 February 2005

102.51

110.36

104.87

22 February 2005

102.08

109.14

104.26

23 February 2005

103.83

108.09

104.42

24 February 2005

108.55

110.18

105.52

25 February 2005

108.51

111.28

106.95

28 February 2005

107.42

112.89

106.33

1 March 2005

105.85

ND

106.45

2 March 2005

107.65

112.45

106.18

3 March 2005

109.44

112.84

106.28

4 March 2005

111.46

113.06

106.89

7 March 2005

112.44

112.45

107.01

8 March 2005

110.78

111.65

106.05

9 March 2005

108.85

112.60

105.42

10 March 2005

109.05

111.47

103.49

11 March 2005

107.17

114.16

104.35

14 March 2005

107.26

113.81

102.08

15 March 2005

105.31

110.85

101.66

16 March 2005

106.22

110.85

100.99

17 March 2005

107.21

109.39

101.31

18 March 2005

105.33

109.35

100.97

21 March 2005

104.64

109.30

ND

22 March 2005

101.61

109.43

100.72

23 March 2005

100.20

107.91

99.11

24 March 2005

101.93

106.74

ND

25 March 2005

ND

107.74

ND

28 March 2005

100.23

109.13

98.92

29 March 2005

98.65

107.04

97.02

30 March 2005

101.04

106.64

97.57

31 March 2005

101.58

107.79

97.75

1 April 2005

102.20

109.60

98.04

4 April 2005

100.80

109.66

97.11

5 April 2005

99.40

ND

94.85

6 April 2005

98.09

110.28

93.85

7 April 2005

100.43

110.38

96.16

8 April 2005

98.81

110.74

96.63

11 April 2005

98.87

110.05

95.81

12 April 2005

100.04

109.58

96.56

13 April 2005

99.50

109.53

95.80

14 April 2005

95.37

106.47

94.33

15 April 2005

94.12

105.73

92.09

18 April 2005

94.96

103.25

90.53

19 April 2005

97.59

104.08

92.62

20 April 2005

95.67

104.63

91.32

21 April 2005

ND

104.82

93.02

22 April 2005

94.54

105.01

92.49

25 April 2005

96.32

105.61

95.44

26 April 2005

96.60

105.42

96.98

27 April 2005

96.36

103.82

96.04

28 April 2005

93.29

102.43

94.50

29 April 2005

94.84

101.72

95.02

2 May 2005

94.31

102.51

95.81

3 May 2005

94.35

102.00

95.29

4 May 2005

97.24

103.73

97.49

5 May 2005

97.10

ND

97.31

6 May 2005

97.68

105.02

97.28

9 May 2005

97.21

104.38

96.87

10 May 2005

94.53

104.28

96.37

11 May 2005

94.28

103.07

96.11

12 May 2005

92.06

102.82

95.99

13 May 2005

91.19

103.04

95.21

16 May 2005

93.06

103.70

95.94

17 May 2005

93.19

103.49

95.92

18 May 2005

95.04

103.84

98.14

19 May 2005

94.78

106.27

98.66

20 May 2005

93.61

106.28

99.34

23 May 2005

92.44

106.15

100.47

24 May 2005

93.70

106.22

100.40

25 May 2005

93.44

105.07

100.69

26 May 2005

ND

105.36

101.42

27 May 2005

96.41

107.25

101.25

30 May 2005

97.05

108.16

101.49

31 May 2005

96.22

108.29

99.97

1 June 2005

99.06

108.21

101.35

2 June 2005

101.69

108.37

102.44

3 June 2005

100.65

108.95

101.82

6 June 2005

97.56

ND

101.85

7 June 2005

95.53

108.37

101.38

8 June 2005

94.29

108.96

101.03

9 June 2005

93.46

110.23

101.98

10 June 2005

95.25

110.59

101.90

13 June 2005

95.06

110.56

102.55

14 June 2005

98.27

109.80

102.89

15 June 2005

97.27

111.83

104.11

16 June 2005

98.30

111.97

104.38

17 June 2005

99.67

112.03

105.03

20 June 2005

99.42

111.02

105.71

21 June 2005

98.19

110.50

104.47

22 June 2005

98.02

111.86

103.65

23 June 2005

94.73

112.82

103.25

24 June 2005

95.12

111.89

102.55

27 June 2005

96.30

110.62

103.75

28 June 2005

96.43

111.03

104.27

29 June 2005

95.92

111.51

104.48

30 June 2005

95.63

112.53

103.99

1 July 2005

96.62

113.63

104.17

4 July 2005

95.60

114.04

104.10

5 July 2005

94.19

113.72

105.24

6 July 2005

93.59

113.74

106.33

7 July 2005

93.33

114.61

106.80

8 July 2005

93.23

114.07

106.96

11 July 2005

95.49

116.13

106.47

12 July 2005

97.48

116.51

107.73

13 July 2005

98.70

117.22

107.99

14 July 2005

98.95

118.53

108.61

15 July 2005

96.28

118.27

107.59

18 July 2005

96.66

118.59

107.74

19 July 2005

96.47

120.04

109.24

20 July 2005

98.12

119.92

110.31

21 July 2005

98.65

119.95

110.05

22 July 2005

96.93

119.90

110.41

25 July 2005

93.64

121.63

108.99

26 July 2005

94.93

121.73

108.47

27 July 2005

96.72

122.00

109.29

28 July 2005

99.51

123.31

109.93

29 July 2005

99.41

124.04

111.11

1 August 2005

100.39

124.56

112.44

2 August 2005

102.26

124.88

113.18

3 August 2005

101.98

124.69

112.70

4 August 2005

101.04

124.05

112.67

5 August 2005

101.23

121.59

111.52

8 August 2005

101.97

121.29

112.55

9 August 2005

104.18

122.75

113.14

10 August 2005

103.51

123.32

113.37

11 August 2005

101.67

125.43

113.88

12 August 2005

102.88

126.15

113.14

15 August 2005

104.50

ND

114.45

16 August 2005

103.37

124.67

112.26

17 August 2005

104.66

124.26

112.27

18 August 2005

102.69

121.97

112.73

19 August 2005

101.71

121.65

113.18

22 August 2005

104.06

124.64

113.89

23 August 2005

102.19

124.55

113.49

24 August 2005

101.97

122.13

112.60

25 August 2005

104.60

122.48

112.61

26 August 2005

103.43

121.28

111.38

29 August 2005

104.54

118.67

110.47

30 August 2005

105.37

119.72

108.02

31 August 2005

107.06

120.92

109.83

1 September 2005

106.74

123.49

111.70

2 September 2005

108.10

124.55

113.91

5 September 2005

108.88

124.40

114.56

6 September 2005

110.15

125.31

115.90

7 September 2005

ND

127.58

117.56

8 September 2005

110.05

127.83

116.09

9 September 2005

111.88

128.64

117.30

12 September 2005

111.03

129.29

117.13

13 September 2005

110.22

129.27

116.34

14 September 2005

110.89

130.68

117.37

15 September 2005

112.10

130.55

118.97

16 September 2005

113.82

131.05

ND

19 September 2005

114.81

ND

120.73

20 September 2005

114.75

132.93

120.01

21 September 2005

117.72

133.57

121.33

22 September 2005

117.11

133.94

120.76

23 September 2005

119.46

131.25

120.67

26 September 2005

118.88

134.66

121.57

27 September 2005

117.86

135.02

121.85

28 September 2005

119.55

137.13

122.37

29 September 2005

119.13

137.43

122.15

30 September 2005

120.57

136.29

124.30

3 October 2005

121.61

ND

123.77

4 October 2005

119.42

138.72

122.86

5 October 2005

115.14

137.00

121.22

6 October 2005

111.57

134.22

117.57

7 October 2005

114.42

134.05

119.11

10 October 2005

115.58

136.97

119.26

11 October 2005

116.86

138.88

119.10

12 October 2005

ND

135.84

116.46

13 October 2005

114.06

133.21

115.08

14 October 2005

113.64

132.84

114.84

17 October 2005

115.44

131.30

117.84

18 October 2005

110.96

132.40

116.32

19 October 2005

111.84

128.71

116.53

20 October 2005

108.20

129.72

114.28

21 October 2005

111.37

132.10

114.92

24 October 2005

113.89

132.22

118.41

25 October 2005

112.60

131.85

118.50

26 October 2005

113.49

131.60

120.80

27 October 2005

111.21

130.19

119.04

28 October 2005

111.92

127.32

120.13

31 October 2005

115.26

129.26

121.52

1 November 2005

117.95

132.71

122.78

2 November 2005

ND

134.88

122.58

3 November 2005

118.72

135.95

121.82

4 November 2005

117.91

136.39

122.61

7 November 2005

118.16

136.00

122.94

8 November 2005

118.23

136.92

122.84

9 November 2005

117.06

137.02

123.23

10 November 2005

117.29

137.78

124.55

11 November 2005

116.47

140.20

124.43

14 November 2005

115.36

140.37

125.64

15 November 2005

ND

139.95

124.87

16 November 2005

116.36

141.44

125.77

17 November 2005

118.67

141.68

126.89

18 November 2005

118.73

142.00

127.58

21 November 2005

118.76

141.62

129.29

22 November 2005

120.20

138.91

130.06

23 November 2005

121.94

143.10

128.88

24 November 2005

121.94

144.18

129.16

25 November 2005

121.85

144.35

130.15

28 November 2005

119.70

144.40

129.82

29 November 2005

120.82

142.80

128.73

30 November 2005

121.84

144.82

129.78

1 December 2005

124.51

145.77

132.12

2 December 2005

125.33

146.23

132.25

5 December 2005

124.83

146.79

133.17

6 December 2005

126.83

147.45

134.36

7 December 2005

125.04

147.86

132.97

8 December 2005

123.99

147.80

132.71

9 December 2005

125.67

147.05

135.36

12 December 2005

125.86

148.81

ND

13 December 2005

127.57

149.17

137.40

14 December 2005

128.38

148.93

139.21

15 December 2005

126.71

149.31

138.20

16 December 2005

127.09

147.45

136.77

19 December 2005

125.99

149.50

136.22

20 December 2005

126.23

149.68

136.34

21 December 2005

127.95

151.15

137.11

22 December 2005

127.93

150.78

137.01

23 December 2005

127.24

151.75

137.27

26 December 2005

127.11

152.64

137.07

27 December 2005

127.39

153.31

137.50

28 December 2005

126.50

152.71

136.41

29 December 2005

127.71

153.96

137.51

30 December 2005

ND

ND

137.27

2 January 2006

127.91

155.07

138.22

3 January 2006

131.85

155.69

142.66

4 January 2006

133.62

156.50

143.96

5 January 2006

133.36

155.76

143.49

6 January 2006

135.42

157.69

144.48

9 January 2006

134.89

157.19

146.50

10 January 2006

133.80

155.85

145.83

11 January 2006

137.24

155.60

147.74

12 January 2006

136.58

156.55

145.93

13 January 2006

137.03

158.08

145.65

16 January 2006

139.46

158.70

146.18

17 January 2006

137.88

155.10

142.57

18 January 2006

136.68

151.01

140.85

19 January 2006

140.70

151.87

142.82

20 January 2006

140.08

147.87

141.47

23 January 2006

139.84

144.82

142.24

24 January 2006

142.77

148.10

145.55

25 January 2006

ND

149.86

145.48

26 January 2006

145.11

150.99

148.18

27 January 2006

144.38

154.54

146.17

30 January 2006

145.98

ND

145.34

31 January 2006

146.52

156.25

145.79

1 February 2006

146.91

153.58

147.76

2 February 2006

142.40

153.41

146.97

3 February 2006

142.24

148.84

145.44

6 February 2006

142.47

149.75

ND

7 February 2006

139.57

148.71

143.92

8 February 2006

139.33

146.33

141.96

9 February 2006

140.79

147.52

142.79

10 February 2006

141.15

149.03

141.10

13 February 2006

137.86

147.42

137.90

14 February 2006

139.82

148.25

138.97

15 February 2006

142.16

145.53

140.10

16 February 2006

146.04

146.70

142.32

17 February 2006

146.67

148.76

142.50

20 February 2006

147.12

150.49

142.98

21 February 2006

145.69

150.29

142.63

22 February 2006

146.00

149.63

144.81

23 February 2006

146.61

151.94

147.41

24 February 2006

147.39

152.45

147.28

27 February 2006

ND

153.46

145.39

28 February 2006

ND

153.09

144.24

1 March 2006

149.56

ND

146.96

2 March 2006

149.36

152.66

147.30

3 March 2006

149.79

148.33

147.97

6 March 2006

146.41

150.10

146.44

7 March 2006

142.85

146.96

143.04

8 March 2006

142.35

146.67

141.87

9 March 2006

138.62

146.35

141.19

10 March 2006

140.82

147.34

142.04

13 March 2006

140.45

149.37

144.24

14 March 2006

143.31

148.04

146.05

15 March 2006

145.99

148.90

146.50

16 March 2006

145.66

149.12

147.79

17 March 2006

145.25

149.69

149.16

20 March 2006

145.84

150.31

150.99

21 March 2006

142.76

149.19

ND

22 March 2006

144.49

146.20

151.12

23 March 2006

143.05

146.47

148.48

24 March 2006

143.44

147.47

149.12

27 March 2006

143.69

148.49

148.25

28 March 2006

140.03

148.60

145.97

29 March 2006

143.12

148.75

147.53

30 March 2006

144.21

149.36

148.16

31 March 2006

144.88

151.75

148.61

3 April 2006

147.80

154.00

151.40

4 April 2006

148.12

154.66

152.40

5 April 2006

149.08

155.01

153.68

6 April 2006

149.96

155.93

153.21

7 April 2006

148.60

156.53

150.15

10 April 2006

146.87

156.07

150.73

11 April 2006

144.68

154.71

150.09

12 April 2006

146.69

154.43

148.99

13 April 2006

145.37

156.90

ND

14 April 2006

ND

159.92

ND

17 April 2006

146.82

158.79

151.38

18 April 2006

151.06

159.28

152.83

19 April 2006

152.46

160.49

153.70

20 April 2006

151.83

160.08

154.06

21 April 2006

ND

161.99

155.56

24 April 2006

151.74

159.72

155.75

25 April 2006

151.69

159.74

157.00

26 April 2006

154.26

161.98

158.59

27 April 2006

151.74

162.13

157.23

28 April 2006

154.08

158.47

159.20

2 May 2006

156.57

160.16

162.54

3 May 2006

156.20

160.19

163.16

4 May 2006

156.42

160.84

164.19

5 May 2006

158.10

ND

163.76

8 May 2006

158.48

162.09

166.62

9 May 2006

160.25

161.89

168.27

10 May 2006

159.38

161.97

167.95

11 May 2006

155.93

163.49

165.28

12 May 2006

153.50

161.31

163.12

15 May 2006

149.91

157.82

159.79

16 May 2006

150.47

154.27

160.78

17 May 2006

146.17

156.43

156.24

18 May 2006

144.32

152.37

155.89

19 May 2006

144.04

153.17

155.62

22 May 2006

139.32

149.41

149.35

23 May 2006

137.84

148.44

147.16

24 May 2006

136.63

148.83

145.01

25 May 2006

143.41

144.63

149.63

26 May 2006

147.46

147.61

151.02

29 May 2006

145.61

148.36

150.37

30 May 2006

139.00

147.08

145.28

31 May 2006

139.45

ND

144.02

1 June 2006

144.10

144.55

147.50

2 June 2006

144.84

146.11

149.76

5 June 2006

140.25

145.28

146.16

6 June 2006

139.55

ND

144.95

7 June 2006

134.61

141.40

141.98

8 June 2006

135.28

136.52

140.78

9 June 2006

133.89

137.92

136.86

12 June 2006

128.09

138.39

130.98

13 June 2006

125.39

134.37

128.41

14 June 2006

125.75

136.37

129.56

15 June 2006

ND

136.11

138.27

16 June 2006

131.31

140.88

139.12

19 June 2006

129.40

139.71

135.57

20 June 2006

128.39

136.82

137.11

21 June 2006

131.88

136.98

140.00

22 June 2006

131.00

138.27

140.25

23 June 2006

132.31

137.13

143.00

26 June 2006

132.20

138.19

142.58

27 June 2006

131.22

139.25

138.96

28 June 2006

132.98

138.26

139.58

29 June 2006

139.28

140.97

145.80

30 June 2006

139.83

144.56

147.64

3 July 2006

142.61

144.50

154.69

4 July 2006

142.64

143.53

156.76

5 July 2006

138.87

142.85

150.47

6 July 2006

139.46

141.08

154.58

7 July 2006

137.81

142.19

152.90

10 July 2006

137.96

145.02

151.90

11 July 2006

139.54

145.15

150.90

12 July 2006

138.30

144.73

149.74

13 July 2006

134.96

143.43

144.39

14 July 2006

134.94

140.09

141.33

17 July 2006

133.10

ND

142.17

18 July 2006

134.10

137.67

145.62

19 July 2006

140.42

137.70

153.23

20 July 2006

136.84

142.12

150.44

21 July 2006

135.56

141.90

150.57

24 July 2006

138.28

141.01

153.74

25 July 2006

140.02

142.84

154.85

26 July 2006

139.69

142.77

153.55

27 July 2006

140.81

144.69

155.29

28 July 2006

142.70

144.78

156.16

31 July 2006

141.54

144.86

154.96

1 August 2006

140.63

143.69

154.01

2 August 2006

142.34

144.56

155.34

3 August 2006

142.96

144.21

156.24

4 August 2006

144.48

145.61

156.95

7 August 2006

143.90

143.93

157.40

8 August 2006

143.53

146.34

156.86

9 August 2006

142.22

146.77

154.70

10 August 2006

142.59

145.58

154.59

11 August 2006

141.03

144.22

156.33

14 August 2006

139.55

144.56

156.46

15 August 2006

142.37

ND

158.42

16 August 2006

143.83

146.84

161.16

17 August 2006

143.38

148.20

161.71

18 August 2006

143.35

148.57

162.29

21 August 2006

141.85

147.52

160.86

22 August 2006

140.01

149.00

161.83

23 August 2006

135.56

147.89

159.94

24 August 2006

136.65

146.86

160.01

25 August 2006

137.26

148.38

161.89

28 August 2006

138.85

148.22

163.69

29 August 2006

138.58

150.08

164.10

30 August 2006

138.62

149.72

164.48

31 August 2006

138.31

150.99

162.31

1 September 2006

142.50

151.43

163.41

4 September 2006

143.89

151.69

164.90

5 September 2006

142.65

151.94

163.90

6 September 2006

140.13

151.47

161.66

7 September 2006

ND

150.81

160.64

8 September 2006

139.56

151.23

160.35

11 September 2006

136.56

148.91

158.94

12 September 2006

137.98

148.23

162.72

13 September 2006

139.52

148.80

164.40

14 September 2006

138.01

151.66

164.50

15 September 2006

138.07

151.92

166.16

18 September 2006

139.27

153.40

167.06

19 September 2006

136.99

153.36

167.01

20 September 2006

134.36

152.52

168.42

21 September 2006

132.96

152.56

165.77

22 September 2006

132.84

150.50

164.94

25 September 2006

133.50

151.26

167.13

26 September 2006

136.73

150.01

168.04

27 September 2006

137.83

151.80

167.70

28 September 2006

139.28

153.08

168.52

29 September 2006

139.14

153.07

169.15

2 October 2006

141.46

153.39

166.71

3 October 2006

139.09

ND

166.79

4 October 2006

144.10

150.91

170.46

5 October 2006

144.97

ND

172.16

6 October 2006

144.83

ND

172.34

9 October 2006

146.61

147.27

172.06

10 October 2006

147.56

148.27

173.68

11 October 2006

146.29

147.95

172.62

12 October 2006

ND

148.65

174.74

13 October 2006

148.30

150.53

176.18

16 October 2006

149.75

151.43

176.97

17 October 2006

148.49

150.83

175.80

18 October 2006

147.68

151.16

177.45

19 October 2006

148.57

151.14

178.65

20 October 2006

147.51

152.27

179.15

23 October 2006

149.74

152.35

179.83

24 October 2006

150.78

152.52

179.51

25 October 2006

151.02

153.08

180.42

26 October 2006

151.34

153.32

180.14

27 October 2006

150.13

152.81

175.52

30 October 2006

148.50

151.37

172.49

31 October 2006

149.88

152.31

177.71

1 November 2006

152.43

153.40

177.68

2 November 2006

ND

154.45

ND

3 November 2006

154.35

154.46

178.66

6 November 2006

157.45

153.94

183.00

7 November 2006

156.70

154.86

181.86

8 November 2006

157.79

154.04

184.53

9 November 2006

155.81

156.20

184.61

10 November 2006

155.44

155.79

184.69

13 November 2006

155.01

155.89

186.51

14 November 2006

157.62

157.09

187.28

15 November 2006

ND

157.66

187.49

16 November 2006

157.13

157.46

187.11

17 November 2006

156.62

157.63

186.57

20 November 2006

ND

156.51

ND

21 November 2006

158.69

156.92

189.58

22 November 2006

160.00

158.78

190.26

23 November 2006

160.59

158.41

190.69

24 November 2006

159.40

158.69

191.17

27 November 2006

156.19

159.07

188.47

28 November 2006

156.68

157.54

187.72

29 November 2006

160.21

158.78

191.04

30 November 2006

160.07

159.86

192.48

1 December 2006

157.76

160.10

ND

4 December 2006

162.83

159.22

194.37

5 December 2006

164.75

158.56

197.35

6 December 2006

164.51

157.80

197.52

7 December 2006

163.80

157.41

197.70

8 December 2006

164.06

155.20

198.61

11 December 2006

165.28

155.23

199.16

12 December 2006

164.22

153.69

ND

13 December 2006

165.23

154.40

198.09

14 December 2006

167.03

158.32

199.43

15 December 2006

166.42

158.71

198.61

18 December 2006

166.09

159.97

199.38

19 December 2006

166.40

159.36

197.56

20 December 2006

166.06

160.98

195.81

21 December 2006

165.62

160.33

196.99

22 December 2006

165.50

160.45

196.11

26 December 2006

166.45

160.05

198.21

27 December 2006

169.97

159.07

202.00

28 December 2006

169.77

160.11

202.76

29 December 2006

ND

ND

203.94

2 January 2007

173.24

160.20

205.61

3 January 2007

169.66

157.31

205.26

4 January 2007

168.04

155.96

204.85

5 January 2007

161.26

154.67

201.53

8 January 2007

163.50

153.01

202.65

9 January 2007

160.35

153.40

198.81

10 January 2007

161.61

151.33

199.60

11 January 2007

162.89

152.39

202.39

12 January 2007

164.51

154.97

202.98

15 January 2007

163.84

155.25

204.18

16 January 2007

162.71

155.12

204.19

17 January 2007

163.14

153.97

204.79

18 January 2007

162.15

154.39

201.35

19 January 2007

165.78

151.86

202.13

22 January 2007

166.26

152.18

203.82

23 January 2007

168.64

152.14

206.73

24 January 2007

170.58

154.37

210.80

25 January 2007

ND

154.29

207.42

26 January 2007

169.54

153.06

208.55

29 January 2007

166.33

152.15

206.91

30 January 2007

168.13

153.00

209.24

31 January 2007

170.41

151.82

212.52

1 February 2007

171.07

154.36

214.69

2 February 2007

171.77

157.73

215.39

5 February 2007

172.87

158.27

ND

6 February 2007

173.12

159.45

216.42

7 February 2007

170.21

159.20

216.86

8 February 2007

171.37

158.90

217.42

9 February 2007

169.05

159.35

215.19

12 February 2007

167.71

157.86

215.69

13 February 2007

172.53

158.32

217.93

14 February 2007

175.58

160.29

220.07

15 February 2007

175.43

161.13

219.75

16 February 2007

175.02

161.71

219.69

19 February 2007

ND

ND

220.45

20 February 2007

ND

162.18

220.45

21 February 2007

175.94

162.00

221.42

22 February 2007

177.32

163.56

221.12

23 February 2007

175.66

164.06

219.80

26 February 2007

176.39

164.08

216.26

27 February 2007

164.70

162.36

203.71

28 February 2007

167.55

158.20

205.41

1 March 2007

166.12

ND

205.48

2 March 2007

161.74

157.88

202.96

5 March 2007

157.19

153.60

198.85

6 March 2007

164.98

156.59

203.22

7 March 2007

162.88

157.49

201.90

8 March 2007

165.92

158.93

206.45

9 March 2007

168.47

158.90

209.01

12 March 2007

168.91

160.88

210.21

13 March 2007

163.19

160.29

205.03

14 March 2007

165.25

157.09

206.03

15 March 2007

165.21

159.27

207.29

16 March 2007

163.12

159.38

207.43

19 March 2007

166.87

161.11

ND

20 March 2007

169.30

161.19

211.33

21 March 2007

174.19

161.05

217.60

22 March 2007

173.40

161.68

217.90

23 March 2007

173.81

161.55

218.00

26 March 2007

174.24

161.82

217.13

27 March 2007

172.57

162.21

216.86

28 March 2007

169.81

160.70

216.66

29 March 2007

173.14

161.95

221.33

30 March 2007

174.85

162.13

221.67

2 April 2007

174.06

162.91

224.94

3 April 2007

176.70

163.38

226.30

4 April 2007

177.71

165.57

226.47

5 April 2007

178.07

165.42

ND

6 April 2007

ND

165.66

ND

9 April 2007

178.86

167.54

228.49

10 April 2007

180.08

167.33

227.59

11 April 2007

179.18

168.92

225.76

12 April 2007

180.74

170.28

228.29

13 April 2007

182.95

169.75

229.49

16 April 2007

186.75

171.00

229.16

17 April 2007

186.12

170.62

228.23

18 April 2007

185.94

171.29

227.93

19 April 2007

186.14

168.95

228.35

20 April 2007

188.61

171.12

230.03

23 April 2007

187.67

172.38

228.19

24 April 2007

187.32

173.76

227.81

25 April 2007

189.63

172.51

227.04

26 April 2007

187.31

173.36

226.26

27 April 2007

187.93

172.17

226.49

30 April 2007

186.88

172.14

223.59

2 May 2007

188.85

173.37

225.62

3 May 2007

191.70

174.11

229.42

4 May 2007

193.15

174.99

231.43

7 May 2007

191.94

176.85

229.60

8 May 2007

191.93

176.65

228.03

9 May 2007

195.83

177.85

231.27

10 May 2007

191.76

178.55

228.66

11 May 2007

194.31

178.98

231.78

14 May 2007

192.82

179.23

229.52

15 May 2007

192.85

177.40

228.39

16 May 2007

197.50

178.65

233.96

17 May 2007

197.09

180.33

235.01

18 May 2007

198.80

179.95

236.54

21 May 2007

200.12

181.74

236.79

22 May 2007

199.30

183.37

237.51

23 May 2007

197.79

183.79

238.03

24 May 2007

192.89

ND

233.94

25 May 2007

197.04

183.56

236.72

28 May 2007

198.96

185.05

238.48

29 May 2007

197.41

185.49

236.45

30 May 2007

200.52

185.59

241.97

31 May 2007

199.53

189.85

242.11

1 June 2007

203.93

191.56

246.33

4 June 2007

203.25

193.94

247.49

5 June 2007

202.94

194.46

248.84

6 June 2007

198.69

ND

244.29

7 June 2007

ND

195.67

240.46

8 June 2007

199.76

192.79

242.63

11 June 2007

201.47

191.60

245.46

12 June 2007

197.73

193.08

243.73

13 June 2007

202.30

192.20

245.85

14 June 2007

205.04

197.47

247.63

15 June 2007

208.12

197.81

247.74

18 June 2007

208.92

201.68

248.43

19 June 2007

208.59

201.79

247.25

20 June 2007

206.25

199.10

243.28

21 June 2007

208.64

200.27

245.44

22 June 2007

207.16

197.67

243.99

25 June 2007

206.30

196.19

241.32

26 June 2007

205.57

195.28

237.07

27 June 2007

206.68

193.44

237.53

28 June 2007

206.70

195.53

239.65

29 June 2007

207.63

194.62

240.20

2 July 2007

211.37

197.71

242.28

3 July 2007

212.62

201.52

247.66

4 July 2007

212.61

205.20

248.30

5 July 2007

213.51

206.25

248.12

6 July 2007

215.46

207.72

249.92

9 July 2007

ND

210.24

247.43

10 July 2007

213.32

211.46

244.77

11 July 2007

215.13

210.95

246.10

12 July 2007

219.93

213.16

248.76

13 July 2007

220.05

219.10

249.73

16 July 2007

219.02

217.60

248.80

17 July 2007

220.11

ND

246.59

18 July 2007

219.71

215.50

245.87

19 July 2007

221.88

216.30

247.91

20 July 2007

219.28

221.40

246.15

23 July 2007

221.55

222.46

248.05

24 July 2007

212.99

222.37

242.60

25 July 2007

213.78

223.71

239.83

26 July 2007

205.73

219.16

231.30

27 July 2007

202.02

210.20

233.14

30 July 2007

208.32

212.82

238.27

31 July 2007

206.83

215.79

236.41

1 August 2007

207.03

207.21

231.70

2 August 2007

208.77

206.83

234.37

3 August 2007

201.73

209.48

228.79

6 August 2007

202.67

207.06

229.18

7 August 2007

205.38

207.59

233.18

8 August 2007

210.88

212.45

236.43

9 August 2007

203.96

213.04

230.43

10 August 2007

200.94

204.09

226.86

13 August 2007

200.16

206.41

228.30

14 August 2007

194.35

202.91

222.81

15 August 2007

188.14

ND

216.99

16 August 2007

183.29

188.85

214.31

17 August 2007

185.37

182.84

219.84

20 August 2007

187.84

193.24

219.40

21 August 2007

190.16

193.79

220.29

22 August 2007

197.53

196.39

225.69

23 August 2007

197.92

200.88

227.16

24 August 2007

202.31

199.94

231.65

27 August 2007

202.62

201.25

233.45

28 August 2007

197.15

204.18

226.13

29 August 2007

201.31

203.83

229.10

30 August 2007

201.78

205.57

229.35

31 August 2007

208.57

209.09

234.01

3 September 2007

209.31

210.04

237.48

4 September 2007

210.91

209.25

238.52

5 September 2007

207.69

208.23

237.57

6 September 2007

208.31

210.82

237.62

7 September 2007

ND

210.39

233.27

10 September 2007

200.99

204.91

230.50

11 September 2007

205.83

206.20

232.80

12 September 2007

205.69

202.42

231.91

13 September 2007

209.60

206.27

233.66

14 September 2007

208.70

208.73

232.07

17 September 2007

207.44

208.91

229.74

18 September 2007

216.31

205.22

235.98

19 September 2007

218.60

212.37

235.28

20 September 2007

217.23

213.07

235.07

21 September 2007

220.64

214.22

235.82

24 September 2007

224.15

ND

235.52

25 September 2007

224.68

ND

233.60

26 September 2007
27 September 2007

227.95

ND

233.66

233.06

217.13

235.40

28 September 2007

230.82

217.26

233.61

1 October 2007

237.97

219.07

237.92

2 October 2007

236.74

224.81

242.52

3 October 2007

229.42

ND

240.42

4 October 2007

230.59

223.64

239.64

5 October 2007

237.89

222.79

243.21

8 October 2007

239.20

224.67

245.40

9 October 2007

242.59

224.81

245.22

10 October 2007

241.24

227.82

247.75

11 October 2007

238.41

229.80

246.60

12 October 2007

ND

226.19

250.40

15 October 2007

240.38

227.18

249.34

16 October 2007

235.60

223.88

248.53

17 October 2007

241.23

221.44

252.31

18 October 2007

241.49

223.80

253.19

19 October 2007

232.45

219.90

245.39

22 October 2007

233.68

212.50

246.51

23 October 2007

239.34

217.43

248.52

24 October 2007

239.06

215.80

247.12

25 October 2007

237.98

220.64

245.87

26 October 2007

245.36

226.37

247.80

29 October 2007

248.30

230.26

247.52

30 October 2007

245.77

229.08

245.08

31 October 2007

249.34

230.47

242.57

1 November 2007

244.50

230.28

237.54

2 November 2007

ND

225.39

ND

5 November 2007

240.34

224.99

232.54

6 November 2007

246.23

229.29

234.65

7 November 2007

242.40

228.06

228.10

8 November 2007

242.64

220.95

225.85

9 November 2007

245.53

222.17

224.84

12 November 2007

234.87

214.69

217.34

13 November 2007

240.21

215.74

227.35

14 November 2007

246.72

220.17

228.67

15 November 2007

ND

217.40

224.93

16 November 2007

246.64

215.00

228.48

19 November 2007

237.96

211.34

ND

20 November 2007

ND

208.97

224.00

21 November 2007

231.26

201.69

219.35

22 November 2007

231.53

200.80

219.91

23 November 2007

232.75

197.88

221.39

26 November 2007

225.49

207.09

215.00

27 November 2007

226.87

207.58

216.86

28 November 2007

235.59

204.78

225.75

29 November 2007

237.27

209.57

226.70

30 November 2007

240.52

212.74

229.56

3 December 2007

241.26

212.34

231.08

4 December 2007

242.33

214.06

231.32

5 December 2007

247.85

216.34

237.20

6 December 2007

251.15

218.01

241.02

7 December 2007

250.56

215.90

241.11

10 December 2007

249.83

212.79

240.45

11 December 2007

246.27

214.87

233.85

12 December 2007

247.14

215.14

ND

13 December 2007

239.96

213.85

232.00

14 December 2007

238.37

211.52

231.29

17 December 2007

228.38

205.36

223.37

18 December 2007

233.23

207.77

225.58

19 December 2007

235.61

ND

224.19

20 December 2007

235.59

205.86

224.76

21 December 2007

240.87

209.65

228.54

24 December 2007

ND

214.25

230.20

26 December 2007

245.41

212.82

231.34

27 December 2007

243.45

213.03

228.57

28 December 2007

243.88

211.75

229.01

31 December 2007

ND

ND

227.75

2 January 2008

239.79

206.88

221.29

3 January 2008

240.08

206.80

222.54

4 January 2008

233.00

208.04

218.36

7 January 2008

231.99

204.39

217.08

8 January 2008

236.98

203.84

217.97

9 January 2008

239.25

205.87

219.00

10 January 2008

242.46

203.68

224.15

11 January 2008

236.46

198.93

221.49

14 January 2008

237.39

197.10

220.59

15 January 2008

228.69

194.99

215.61

16 January 2008

224.37

190.30

210.84

17 January 2008

217.73

192.38

205.87

18 January 2008

219.52

193.62

205.99

21 January 2008

205.03

187.91

194.97

22 January 2008

214.14

179.59

207.37

23 January 2008

207.03

181.76

212.98

24 January 2008

219.36

185.62

215.17

25 January 2008

ND

188.90

211.12

28 January 2008

223.67

181.62

214.04

29 January 2008

227.24

182.82

217.94

30 January 2008

230.15

177.37

218.19

31 January 2008

227.10

181.34

222.02

1 February 2008

233.16

182.44

226.93

4 February 2008

ND

188.65

ND

5 February 2008

ND

189.37

216.57

6 February 2008

225.10

ND

215.36

7 February 2008

225.09

ND

216.58

8 February 2008

225.51

ND

217.33

11 February 2008

231.50

183.13

221.99

12 February 2008

235.93

183.42

222.61

13 February 2008

238.93

182.13

225.98

14 February 2008

235.98

189.46

224.69

15 February 2008

233.90

189.17

221.65

18 February 2008

239.73

189.33

224.94

19 February 2008

237.81

192.04

222.84

20 February 2008

243.35

188.40

225.35

21 February 2008

243.52

190.24

226.40

22 February 2008

246.63

188.24

227.69

25 February 2008

248.13

190.77

231.04

26 February 2008

248.82

190.77

233.08

27 February 2008

250.02

192.08

234.60

28 February 2008

250.25

193.79

232.33

29 February 2008

242.36

191.05

222.99

3 March 2008

246.18

186.59

227.68

4 March 2008

242.99

187.09

225.63

5 March 2008

246.71

187.19

225.75

6 March 2008

240.40

189.46

221.43

7 March 2008

236.17

185.73

220.63

10 March 2008

229.04

181.40

217.50

11 March 2008

238.08

183.22

227.21

12 March 2008

237.35

185.15

225.80

13 March 2008

237.74

180.33

229.04

14 March 2008

236.64

178.62

223.99

17 March 2008

229.09

175.73

ND

18 March 2008

236.42

177.33

227.59

19 March 2008

224.56

181.07

224.16

20 March 2008

225.17

181.20

ND

21 March 2008

ND

183.69

ND

24 March 2008

228.32

184.76

228.50

25 March 2008

233.75

186.95

231.18

26 March 2008

234.44

187.48

231.77

27 March 2008

231.95

187.10

231.23

28 March 2008

230.77

189.95

232.02

31 March 2008

232.74

190.19

238.37

1 April 2008

239.63

190.00

245.11

2 April 2008

241.88

194.46

242.64

3 April 2008

244.98

196.85

244.35

4 April 2008

246.01

197.17

243.24

7 April 2008

244.98

197.96

244.55

8 April 2008

246.37

195.86

244.64

9 April 2008

242.31

ND

242.26

10 April 2008

242.50

196.96

244.04

11 April 2008

238.91

198.65

241.37

14 April 2008

237.26

194.96

240.52

15 April 2008

239.04

194.46

241.94

16 April 2008

244.89

196.29

246.05

17 April 2008

246.42

197.41

245.10

18 April 2008

247.83

197.77

245.17

21 April 2008

ND

200.96

247.48

22 April 2008

249.70

199.51

247.05

23 April 2008

247.93

201.00

245.57

24 April 2008

246.51

200.84

244.79

25 April 2008

248.84

203.67

239.11

28 April 2008

250.71

203.50

236.13

29 April 2008

243.64

202.20

233.41

30 April 2008

259.08

203.75

233.50

2 May 2008

264.80

206.30

235.58

5 May 2008

267.88

ND

238.72

6 May 2008

267.96

207.50

240.76

7 May 2008

263.46

206.94

237.20

8 May 2008

266.15

206.27

237.12

9 May 2008

265.86

203.56

236.53

12 May 2008

268.80

ND

236.24

13 May 2008

269.13

205.69

238.17

14 May 2008

267.32

205.79

241.63

15 May 2008

272.91

210.48

243.22

16 May 2008

277.78

210.83

242.79

19 May 2008

280.34

210.44

245.18

20 May 2008

280.64

209.08

243.09

21 May 2008

275.97

206.21

240.01

22 May 2008

ND

204.86

240.93

23 May 2008

272.76

204.03

239.57

26 May 2008

273.43

200.98

241.46

27 May 2008

271.00

203.73

242.23

28 May 2008

279.25

201.54

244.03

29 May 2008

274.08

205.51

245.49

30 May 2008

277.11

206.72

246.56

2 June 2008

274.46

206.22

243.94

3 June 2008

267.26

203.08

242.84

4 June 2008

262.15

204.68

242.49

5 June 2008

271.83

204.52

244.63

6 June 2008

266.40

ND

240.19

9 June 2008

264.47

201.91

238.52

10 June 2008

258.72

198.05

238.26

Note. Last daily observation is for June 19, 2008. The Brazil (Bovespa) series ends at about 255, the Korea (KOSPI) series ends at about 195, and the Mexico (Bolsa) series ends at about 230.

As shown in each figure, a vertical line marks the FOMC meeting on April 29-30, 2008.

Chart 5
Debt and Money
Growth of debt of nonfinancial sectors
Percent, s.a.a.r.

Total Business Household
2006

8.8
8.2

2007
Q1

9.8

10.2

11.7

6.8

8.0

9.4

7.0

Q2

7.2

11.1

7.2

Q3

13.7

6.4

7.5

10.8

6.1

Q1

6.1

8.1

3.4

Q2e

2008

9.1

Q4

3.8

5.5

2.7

e Estimated.  Return to table

Figure: Changes in selected components of debt of
nonfinancial business*
Monthly rate
$Billions

Period

C&I loans Commercial paper Bonds Sum

2005

9.31

-0.23

4.99 14.07

2006

11.64

2.42

18.22 32.28

2007:Q1

13.36

0.19

23.70 37.25

2007:Q2

14.17

2.03

32.34 48.53

2007:Q3

31.72

-3.94

18.51 46.29

2007:Q4

24.19

-0.06

31.06 55.20

2008:Q1

12.70

4.55

13.62 30.87

For 2008:Q2 (estimated), approximate values are as follows: C&I loans: 2.5, commercial paper -0.5, bonds 23.5, sum $25.5 billion.
* Commercial paper and C&I loans are seasonally adjusted, bonds are not.  Return to table

Figure: Growth of debt of household sector
Quarterly, s.a.a.r.
Percent

Period

Home mortgage Consumer credit

1991:Q1

7.81

0.23

1991:Q2

8.68

-0.97

1991:Q3

3.15

-2.31

1991:Q4

7.50

-1.23

1992:Q1

7.29

0.83

1992:Q2

4.17

-0.93

1992:Q3

6.59

1.57

1992:Q4

6.91

3.03

1993:Q1

3.45

3.88

1993:Q2

6.88

5.10

1993:Q3

5.84

8.18

1993:Q4

5.39

11.86

1994:Q1

5.65

11.97

1994:Q2

5.28

14.78

1994:Q3

4.73

14.37

1994:Q4

6.06

16.63

1995:Q1

4.76

14.58

1995:Q2

5.08

13.84

1995:Q3

5.04

13.93

1995:Q4

4.13

12.36

1996:Q1

7.64

10.00

1996:Q2

6.22

9.19

1996:Q3

4.78

7.37

1996:Q4

5.48

8.47

1997:Q1

6.75

3.28

1997:Q2

5.08

5.75

1997:Q3

7.92

5.69

1997:Q4

4.15

6.92

1998:Q1

8.03

2.97

1998:Q2

7.39

11.49

1998:Q3

6.49

6.92

1998:Q4

9.31

6.81

1999:Q1

10.10

9.10

1999:Q2

8.19

6.63

1999:Q3

9.81

8.31

1999:Q4

8.07

6.27

2000:Q1

7.71

8.50

2000:Q2

8.77

11.22

2000:Q3

8.76

11.01

2000:Q4

8.47

12.83

2001:Q1

8.64

10.06

2001:Q2

12.19

7.09

2001:Q3

10.81

4.59

2001:Q4

8.86

11.86

2002:Q1

11.82

6.10

2002:Q2

12.13

7.20

2002:Q3

13.11

4.54

2002:Q4

13.75

4.51

2003:Q1

12.29

5.59

2003:Q2

15.77

5.79

2003:Q3

14.34

5.17

2003:Q4

11.57

3.95

2004:Q1

11.73

6.35

2004:Q2

13.97

3.43

2004:Q3

13.28

5.64

2004:Q4

13.07

6.02

2005:Q1

10.94

4.93

2005:Q2

13.24

4.79

2005:Q3

13.87

4.56

2005:Q4

12.05

2.48

2006:Q1

13.71

2.65

2006:Q2

12.46

5.48

2006:Q3

9.62

5.07

2006:Q4

7.06

4.55

2007:Q1

7.38

4.76

2007:Q2

7.37

5.63

2007:Q3

6.26

8.15

2007:Q4

5.08

3.99

2008:Q1

3.46

3.23

For 2008:Q2 (estimated), approximate values are as follows: home mortgage 2.5%, consumer credit, 3%.

Figure: Funded CLO issuance
A bar chart shows "Funded CLO issuance" from 2001 through 2008:Q2. Data is monthly rate; unit is billions of dollars.

The approximate values are as follows: 2001: 1, 2002: 1.25, 2003: 2, 2004: 3, 2005: 5.25, 2006: 9, 2007:H1: 10.1, 2007:Q3: 7.5, 2007:Q4: 4.5, 2008:Q1: 3.5, and
2008:Q2 (estimated): 1.
Source. JPMorgan.

Figure: Growth of
M2
s.a.a.r.

Period

Percent

2005

4.22

2006

4.92

2007:Q1

7.15

2007:Q2

6.11

2007:Q3

4.70

2007:Q4

4.81

Approximate values for 2008 are as follows: Q1: 9.5%, Q2 (estimated): 6%.

Figure: M2 velocity and opportunity cost
Quarterly

Period

Velocity Opportunity cost* (Percentage points)

1993:Q1

1.912

0.768

1993:Q2

1.924

0.821

1993:Q3

1.932

0.940

1993:Q4

1.957

1.059

1994:Q1

1.983

1.227

1994:Q2

2.011

1.655

1994:Q3

2.034

2.147

1994:Q4

2.068

2.611

1995:Q1

2.084

2.984

1995:Q2

2.076

2.933

1995:Q3

2.066

2.699

1995:Q4

2.071

2.542

1996:Q1

2.074

2.375

1996:Q2

2.090

2.332

1996:Q3

2.094

2.410

1996:Q4

2.106

2.344

1997:Q1

2.110

2.315

1997:Q2

2.121

2.315

1997:Q3

2.122

2.283

1997:Q4

2.112

2.307

1998:Q1

2.101

2.322

1998:Q2

2.080

2.290

1998:Q3

2.076

2.180

1998:Q4

2.060

1.901

1999:Q1

2.050

1.832

1999:Q2

2.045

2.000

1999:Q3

2.047

2.093

1999:Q4

2.064

2.281

2000:Q1

2.056

2.591

2000:Q2

2.064

2.780

2000:Q3

2.049

2.875

2000:Q4

2.037

2.938

2001:Q1

1.997

2.442

2001:Q2

1.968

1.628

2001:Q3

1.925

1.230

2001:Q4

1.900

0.844

2002:Q1

1.886

0.563

2002:Q2

1.888

0.620

2002:Q3

1.871

0.614

2002:Q4

1.844

0.513

2003:Q1

1.835

0.414

2003:Q2

1.819

0.377

2003:Q3

1.824

0.350

2003:Q4

1.849

0.336

2004:Q1

1.866

0.330

2004:Q2

1.858

0.408

2004:Q3

1.867

0.642

2004:Q4

1.869

0.992

2005:Q1

1.886

1.364

2005:Q2

1.897

1.623

2005:Q3

1.909

1.863

2005:Q4

1.907

2.193

2006:Q1

1.919

2.539

2006:Q2

1.932

2.776

2006:Q3

1.929

2.841

2006:Q4

1.915

2.796

2007:Q1

1.904

2.731

2007:Q2

1.905

2.604

2007:Q3

1.911

2.246

2007:Q4

1.902

1.574

2008:Q1

1.872

0.780

Approximate values for 2008:Q2 are as follows: velocity: 1.86; opportunity cost: 0.35 percentage point.
* Two-quarter moving average.  Return to table

† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014

Accessible Material
June 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts†
Monetary Policy Strategies
Chart 6
Equilibrium Real Federal Funds Rate
Figure: Short-Run Estimates with Confidence Intervals
Percent

Lower bound of
range of modelbased estimates

The actual real funds
rate based on lagged
core inflation

Greenbookconsistent
measure

Lower bound of
90% confidence
interval

Lower bound of
70% confidence
interval

1990:Q1

0.17

1.13

2.23

4.51

ND

1990:Q2

0.12

1.09

2.00

4.03

ND

Period

Upper bound of
70% confidence
interval

Upper bound of
90% confidence
interval

3.93

4.51

5.47

3.61

4.31

5.23

Upper bound of
range of modelbased estimates

1990:Q3

-0.61

0.32

1.21

3.73

ND

3.06

3.70

4.65

1990:Q4

-0.97

-0.03

1.09

3.45

ND

2.74

3.32

4.28

1991:Q1

-1.11

-0.17

0.81

2.18

ND

2.38

3.07

4.00

1991:Q2

-0.86

0.08

1.18

2.16

ND

2.76

3.39

4.33

1991:Q3

-0.83

0.17

1.12

1.99

ND

2.94

3.53

4.44

1991:Q4

-0.77

0.23

1.10

1.07

ND

2.87

3.51

4.44

1992:Q1

-0.46

0.52

1.42

0.44

ND

3.20

3.81

4.74

1992:Q2

-0.38

0.65

1.54

0.25

ND

3.32

3.96

4.87

1992:Q3

-0.44

0.50

1.61

-0.02

ND

3.20

3.80

4.76

1992:Q4

-0.28

0.67

1.79

0.00

ND

2.99

3.77

4.64

1993:Q1

-0.48

0.50

1.38

0.38

ND

2.92

3.69

4.59

1993:Q2

-0.65

0.33

1.30

0.29

ND

2.70

3.45

4.35

1993:Q3

-0.67

0.24

1.35

0.59

ND

2.19

3.25

4.08

1993:Q4

-0.39

0.51

1.71

0.72

ND

2.35

3.48

4.33

1994:Q1

-0.24

0.69

1.86

1.03

ND

2.87

3.75

4.61

1994:Q2

-0.10

0.80

2.00

1.84

ND

2.49

3.71

4.55

1994:Q3

-0.33

0.56

1.80

2.06

ND

2.39

3.50

4.37

1994:Q4

-0.36

0.53

1.54

2.74

ND

2.64

3.59

4.47

1995:Q1

-0.18

0.77

1.75

3.37

ND

2.86

3.82

4.66

1995:Q2

-0.45

0.50

1.50

3.69

ND

2.53

3.52

4.35

1995:Q3

-0.18

0.81

1.69

3.76

ND

2.81

3.85

4.69

1995:Q4

-0.14

0.83

1.79

3.68

ND

2.77

3.84

4.69

1996:Q1

-0.17

0.75

1.79

3.38

ND

2.82

3.75

4.59

1996:Q2

0.34

1.24

2.28

3.39

ND

3.16

4.23

5.10

1996:Q3

0.35

1.34

2.20

3.53

ND

3.73

4.49

5.36

1996:Q4

0.42

1.37

2.30

3.46

ND

3.60

4.47

5.32

1997:Q1

0.36

1.33

2.25

3.54

ND

3.78

4.52

5.43

1997:Q2

0.71

1.62

2.57

3.76

ND

3.44

4.62

5.47

1997:Q3

0.96

1.93

2.72

3.97

4.11

4.25

5.07

5.95

1997:Q4

0.80

1.81

2.56

4.16

4.30

4.94

5.43

6.42

1998:Q1

0.80

1.80

2.65

4.20

4.33

3.97

4.90

5.76

1998:Q2

0.75

1.73

2.53

4.34

4.16

4.01

4.91

5.78

1998:Q3

0.65

1.59

2.67

4.23

4.30

4.36

4.94

5.90

1998:Q4

0.79

1.71

2.65

3.44

3.47

4.12

4.86

5.78

1999:Q1

0.93

1.90

2.97

3.36

3.90

4.81

5.32

6.34

1999:Q2

1.01

2.04

2.79

3.23

4.08

4.92

5.48

6.48

1999:Q3

1.13

2.15

2.93

3.59

4.29

5.09

5.61

6.58

1999:Q4

1.52

2.53

3.30

3.77

4.37

4.60

5.68

6.52

2000:Q1

1.16

2.28

2.87

3.84

5.26

4.60

5.59

6.47

2000:Q2

1.33

2.23

3.17

4.54

5.63

4.04

5.23

6.08

2000:Q3

0.92

1.99

2.61

4.92

5.24

4.80

5.42

6.34

2000:Q4

0.66

1.62

2.48

4.96

4.55

3.95

4.78

5.65

2001:Q1

0.09

1.07

2.19

3.99

3.10

3.88

4.45

5.40

2001:Q2

0.11

0.98

2.22

2.52

1.94

2.97

3.95

4.83

2001:Q3

-0.55

0.39

1.34

1.57

1.72

2.75

3.56

4.46

2001:Q4

-0.70

0.18

1.14

-0.07

0.51

2.06

3.19

4.09

2002:Q1

-0.37

0.49

1.53

-0.09

0.66

2.37

3.47

4.34

2002:Q2

-0.72

0.18

1.08

-0.02

0.54

2.25

3.25

4.15

2002:Q3

-1.69

-0.68

-0.25

-0.13

0.29

1.86

2.90

3.86

2002:Q4

-1.90

-0.90

-0.40

-0.10

-0.01

1.87

2.79

3.74

2003:Q1

-1.73

-0.73

-0.21

-0.25

0.33

2.61

3.22

4.18

2003:Q2

-1.04

-0.09

0.66

-0.11

0.44

2.61

3.31

4.26

2003:Q3

-0.39

0.51

1.41

-0.32

0.03

2.61

3.61

4.51

2003:Q4

-0.17

0.71

1.95

-0.44

0.18

2.61

3.67

4.53

2004:Q1

-0.29

0.59

1.73

-0.75

0.48

2.59

3.60

4.48

2004:Q2

-0.20

0.68

1.70

-1.08

0.67

2.82

3.74

4.65

2004:Q3

-0.39

0.53

1.37

-0.65

0.90

2.58

3.63

4.55

2004:Q4

-0.39

0.48

1.62

-0.26

1.29

2.16

3.42

4.31

2005:Q1

-0.24

0.62

1.67

0.22

1.88

2.51

3.58

4.45

2005:Q2

-0.34

0.52

1.44

0.84

1.44

2.53

3.56

4.47

2005:Q3

-0.19

0.66

1.74

1.37

1.78

2.37

3.63

4.53

2005:Q4

-0.26

0.62

1.55

1.83

2.16

2.72

3.68

4.60

2006:Q1

-0.13

0.73

1.89

2.44

2.61

2.40

3.69

4.58

2006:Q2

-0.11

0.82

1.79

2.69

2.57

2.93

3.91

4.77

2006:Q3

-0.23

0.70

1.75

2.87

2.61

2.74

3.72

4.59

2006:Q4

-0.29

0.56

1.78

2.98

2.80

2.16

3.48

4.37

2007:Q1

-0.53

0.32

1.56

2.90

2.96

1.99

3.22

4.12

2007:Q2

-0.50

0.34

1.53

3.27

3.22

2.22

3.28

4.19

2007:Q3

-0.15

0.73

1.60

3.17

3.08

2.74

3.84

4.73

2007:Q4

-0.86

0.17

0.68

2.44

2.52

3.24

3.94

4.89

2008:Q1

-2.31

-1.16

-0.94

1.18

0.17

2.73

3.53

4.51

2008:Q2

-2.20

-1.24

-0.64

-0.15

-0.07

2.19

2.61

3.84

Short-Run and Medium-Run Measures
Current Estimate

Previous
Bluebook

Single-equation model

2.2

2.1

Small structural model

-0.6

-0.8

Large model (FRB/US)

0.4

0.3

Short-Run Measures

Confidence intervals for three model-based estimates
70 percent confidence interval

-1.2 - 2.6

90 percent confidence interval

-2.2 - 3.8

Greenbook-consistent measure

-0.1

-0.5

Single-equation model

2.2

2.2

Small structural model

1.8

1.7

Medium-Run Measures

Confidence intervals for two model-based estimates
70 percent confidence interval

1.1 - 2.9

90 percent confidence interval

0.5 - 3.7

TIPS-based factor model

2.0

2.0

Measures of Actual Real Federal Funds Rate
Based on lagged core inflation

-0.2

0.1

Based on lagged headline inflation

-1.3

-1.1*

Based on Greenbook projection of headline inflation

-1.3

-0.7*

* This measure was not reported in the April Bluebook.  Return to table
Note: Appendix A provides background information regarding the construction of these measures and confidence intervals.

Chart 7
Optimal Policy Under Alternative Inflation Goals
1½ Percent Inflation Goal
Figure: Federal funds rate
Percent

Period

Current Bluebook April Bluebook

2008:Q2

2.10

2.99

2008:Q3

2.34

2.81

2008:Q4

2.51

2.62

2009:Q1

2.62

2.44

2009:Q2

2.69

2.28

2009:Q3

2.74

2.17

2009:Q4

2.79

2.10

2010:Q1

2.83

2.09

2010:Q2

2.88

2.12

2010:Q3

2.93

2.19

2010:Q4

3.01

2.31

2011:Q1

3.10

2.46

2011:Q2

3.20

2.64

2011:Q3

3.32

2.83

2011:Q4

3.45

3.04

2012:Q1

3.58

3.26

2012:Q2

3.71

3.46

2012:Q3

3.84

3.66

2012:Q4

3.96

3.83

Figure: Civilian unemployment rate
Percent

Period

Current Bluebook April Bluebook

2008:Q2

5.26

5.20

2008:Q3

5.50

5.48

2008:Q4

5.61

5.73

2009:Q1

5.68

5.78

2009:Q2

5.69

5.74

2009:Q3

5.72

5.71

2009:Q4

5.68

5.60

2010:Q1

5.62

5.49

2010:Q2

5.56

5.39

2010:Q3

5.50

5.29

2010:Q4

5.43

5.20

2011:Q1

5.37

5.11

2011:Q2

5.31

5.03

2011:Q3

5.25

4.96

2011:Q4

5.18

4.88

2012:Q1

5.12

4.81

2012:Q2

5.06

4.76

2012:Q3

5.00

4.71

2012:Q4

4.94

4.67

Figure: Core PCE inflation
Four-quarter average
Percent

Period

Current Bluebook April Bluebook

2008:Q2

2.17

2.16

2008:Q3

2.28

2.24

2008:Q4

2.28

2.20

2009:Q1

2.32

2.21

2009:Q2

2.39

2.17

2009:Q3

2.30

2.04

2009:Q4

2.18

1.90

2010:Q1

2.09

1.80

2010:Q2

2.02

1.74

2010:Q3

1.97

1.70

2010:Q4

1.92

1.66

2011:Q1

1.88

1.63

2011:Q2

1.84

1.60

2011:Q3

1.81

1.59

2011:Q4

1.78

1.59

2012:Q1

1.75

1.59

2012:Q2

1.73

1.59

2012:Q3

1.71

1.58

2012:Q4

1.70

1.58

2 Percent Inflation Goal
Figure: Federal funds rate
Percent

Period

Current Bluebook April Bluebook

2008:Q2

2.10

2.64

2008:Q3

1.99

2.20

2008:Q4

1.90

1.82

2009:Q1

1.82

1.52

2009:Q2

1.77

1.31

2009:Q3

1.77

1.19

2009:Q4

1.80

1.17

2010:Q1

1.89

1.23

2010:Q2

2.02

1.36

2010:Q3

2.18

1.56

2010:Q4

2.38

1.81

2011:Q1

2.61

2.10

2011:Q2

2.85

2.42

2011:Q3

3.11

2.76

2011:Q4

3.38

3.10

2012:Q1

3.64

3.43

2012:Q2

3.88

3.75

2012:Q3

4.12

4.04

2012:Q4

4.33

4.29

Figure: Civilian unemployment rate
Percent

Period

Current Bluebook April Bluebook

2008:Q2

5.26

5.20

2008:Q3

5.50

5.46

2008:Q4

5.59

5.67

2009:Q1

5.61

5.67

2009:Q2

5.58

5.58

2009:Q3

5.56

5.50

2009:Q4

5.47

5.35

2010:Q1

5.37

5.21

2010:Q2

5.27

5.07

2010:Q3

5.18

4.95

2010:Q4

5.09

4.85

2011:Q1

5.01

4.75

2011:Q2

4.94

4.67

2011:Q3

4.88

4.59

2011:Q4

4.82

4.53

2012:Q1

4.77

4.48

2012:Q2

4.73

4.44

2012:Q3

4.69

4.42

2012:Q4

4.65

4.41

Figure: Core PCE inflation
Four-quarter average
Percent

Period

Current Bluebook April Bluebook

2008:Q2

2.17

2.20

2008:Q3

2.33

2.30

2008:Q4

2.35

2.29

2009:Q1

2.41

2.32

2009:Q2

2.50

2.28

2009:Q3

2.41

2.16

2009:Q4

2.30

2.04

2010:Q1

2.22

1.96

2010:Q2

2.18

1.92

2010:Q3

2.15

1.90

2010:Q4

2.13

1.88

2011:Q1

2.11

1.87

2011:Q2

2.09

1.86

2011:Q3

2.08

1.87

2011:Q4

2.07

1.88

2012:Q1

2.06

1.89

2012:Q2

2.05

1.90

2012:Q3

2.04

1.91

2012:Q4

2.04

1.92

[Box:] Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy
Figure: Federal Funds Rate
A line chart shows two series, "Optimal policy", and "Imperfect credibility", from 0 to 10 years ahead. Unit is percent.

The "Optimal policy" series begins at about 0.3 at 0 years ahead, decreases to about 0 at 2 years, about -0.02 from 4 through 8 years, and ends at about -0.01 at
10 years ahead.

The ""Imperfect credibility" series begins at about 0.8 percent at 0 years ahead, decreases to about 0.2 at 2 years, about 0.05 at 4 years, and about 0 from 6 to 10
years ahead.

Figure: Output Gap
A line chart shows two series, "Optimal policy", and "Imperfect credibility", from 0 to 10 years ahead. Unit is percent.

The "Optimal policy" series begins at about -0.02 percent at 0 years ahead, decreases to about -0.05 from 2 through 4 years, increases to about -0.04 at 6 years,
and ends at about -0.03 at 10 years ahead.

The "Imperfect credibility" series begins at about -0.21 at 0 years ahead, increases to about 0 at 2 years, about 0.03 at 4 through 6 years, and ends at about 0.01
at 10 years ahead.

Figure: Core PCE Inflation
A line chart shows two series, "Optimal policy", and "Imperfect credibility", four-quarter averages from 0 to 10 years ahead. Unit is percent.

The "Optimal policy" series begins at about 0.15 at 0 years ahead, increases to about 0.35 before 1 year, and then generally decreases to end at about -0.4 at 10
years ahead.

The "Imperfect credibility" series begins at about 0.15 at 0 years ahead, increases to about 0.45 before 1 year, and then generally decreases to end at about 0 at
10 years ahead.

Chart 8
The Policy Outlook in an Uncertain Environment
Figure: FRB/US Model Simulations of Estimated Outcome-Based Rule
Percent

Period

Lower bound of 90%
confidence interval

Lower bound of 70%
confidence interval

Current
Bluebook

Previous
Bluebook

Greenbook
assumption

Upper bound of 70%
confidence interval

Upper bound of 90%
confidence interval

2008:Q2

2.12

2.13

2.15

2.21

2.10

2.17

2.17

2008:Q3

1.29

1.57

1.94

1.98

2.00

2.35

2.53

2008:Q4

0.88

1.31

1.96

1.91

2.00

2.63

2.97

2009:Q1

0.64

1.24

2.14

2.03

2.20

3.07

3.55

2009:Q2

0.75

1.46

2.55

2.39

2.50

3.67

4.29

2009:Q3

0.95

1.76

2.97

2.75

2.75

4.30

4.96

2009:Q4

1.08

1.99

3.28

2.99

2.75

4.74

5.45

2010:Q1

1.21

2.15

3.47

3.08

2.75

5.00

5.79

2010:Q2

1.29

2.19

3.56

3.06

3.00

5.16

5.99

2010:Q3

1.34

2.24

3.59

2.96

3.00

5.24

6.04

2010:Q4

1.31

2.23

3.57

2.82

3.25

5.25

6.12

2011:Q1

1.21

2.19

3.54

2.71

3.25

5.24

6.16

2011:Q2

1.13

2.18

3.51

2.63

3.25

5.21

6.15

2011:Q3

1.10

2.14

3.50

2.62

3.25

5.23

6.17

2011:Q4

1.13

2.09

3.49

2.67

3.50

5.31

6.18

2012:Q1

1.08

2.11

3.52

2.76

3.71

5.36

6.23

2012:Q2

1.15

2.14

3.57

2.87

3.90

5.40

6.33

2012:Q3

1.21

2.22

3.66

2.97

4.06

5.51

6.51

2012:Q4

1.31

2.28

3.75

3.07

4.19

5.58

6.57

Figure: Information from Financial Markets
Percent

Period

Upper
Upper
Lower
Lower
bound of
bound of Expectations bound of
bound of
90%
70%
from interest
70%
90%
confidence confidence
rate caps
confidence confidence
interval
interval
interval
interval

Previous
Bluebook:
Lower bound of
90% confidence
interval

Previous
Bluebook:
Lower bound of
70% confidence
interval

Previous
Bluebook:
Expectations
from interest
rate caps

Previous
Bluebook:
Upper bound of
70% confidence
interval

Previous
Bluebook:
Upper bound of
90% confidence
interval

2008:Q2

1.98

1.99

2.01

2.03

2.04

1.90

1.95

2.07

2.17

2.24

2008:Q3

1.81

1.92

2.13

2.32

2.45

1.52

1.68

2.02

2.32

2.53

2008:Q4

1.68

1.94

2.48

2.96

3.28

1.31

1.58

2.20

2.74

3.12

2009:Q1

1.53

1.93

2.83

3.58

4.10

1.14

1.49

2.38

3.14

3.68

2009:Q2

1.36

1.85

3.05

4.03

4.71

1.05

1.45

2.55

3.48

4.16

2009:Q3

1.30

1.85

3.28

4.42

5.22

1.04

1.48

2.74

3.81

4.59

2009:Q4

1.33

1.93

3.53

4.78

5.67

1.10

1.56

2.94

4.11

4.98

2010:Q1

1.42

2.07

3.78

5.10

6.04

1.15

1.64

3.09

4.31

5.23

2010:Q2

1.54

2.22

3.98

5.33

6.29

1.24

1.76

3.27

4.55

5.50

2010:Q3

1.69

2.41

4.20

5.56

6.54

1.32

1.87

3.42

4.71

5.69

2010:Q4

1.78

2.52

4.30

5.65

6.61

1.38

1.95

3.53

4.84

5.82

2011:Q1

1.84

2.60

4.38

5.71

6.65

1.43

2.02

3.63

4.95

5.93

2011:Q2

1.88

2.65

4.43

5.75

6.67

1.47

2.08

3.73

5.06

6.03

2011:Q3

1.89

2.67

4.47

5.78

6.68

1.49

2.12

3.81

5.15

6.11

2011:Q4

1.87

2.68

4.50

5.80

6.68

1.50

2.15

3.89

5.24

6.19

2012:Q1

1.83

2.66

4.51

5.81

6.69

1.49

2.17

3.95

5.32

6.27

2012:Q2

1.79

2.62

4.52

5.82

6.69

1.48

2.18

4.01

5.39

6.33

2012:Q3

1.74

2.58

4.51

5.82

6.70

1.46

2.17

4.06

5.45

6.39

2012:Q4

1.68

2.53

4.50

5.82

6.71

1.44

2.16

4.10

5.50

6.45

Note: In both panels, the dark and light shading represent the 70 and 90 percent confidence intervals respectively. In the right hand panel, the thin dotted lines represent the confidence intervals
shown in the previous Bluebook.

Near-Term Prescriptions of Simple Policy Rules
1½ Percent Inflation
Objective

2 Percent Inflation Objective

2008Q3
Taylor (1993) rule

2008Q4

2008Q3

2008Q4

4.2

4.0

4.0

3.8

Previous Bluebook
Taylor (1999) rule
Previous Bluebook
First-difference rule
Previous Bluebook

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.8

3.3

3.6

3.1

3.2

2.8

3.0

2.6

2.0

2.1

1.7

1.6

2.8

3.1

2.3

2.3

Memo
2008Q3 2008Q4
Estimated outcome-based rule

1.9

2.0

Estimated forecast-based rule

1.8

1.8

Greenbook assumption

2.0

2.0

Fed funds futures

2.1

2.4

Median expectation of primary dealers

2.0

2.0

Note: Appendix B provides background information regarding the specification of each rule and the methodology used in constructing confidence intervals and near-term prescriptions.

† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014

Accessible Material
June 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts
Short-Run Policy Alternatives
Table 1: Alternative Language for the June 2008 FOMC Announcement
[Note: In Table 1, strong emphasis (bold) has been added to indicate red underlined text in the original document.]

April FOMC

Alternative A

Alternative B

Alternative C

Rationale

1. The Federal Open Market
Committee decided today to lower its
target for the federal funds rate 25
basis points to 2 percent.

The Federal Open Market Committee
The Federal Open Market Committee
decided today to lower its target for the decided today to keep its target for the
federal funds rate 25 basis points to 1- federal funds rate at 2 percent.
3/4 percent.

The Federal Open Market Committee
decided today to raise its target for the
federal funds rate 25 basis points to 21/4 percent.

2. Recent information indicates that
economic activity remains weak.
Household and business spending has
been subdued and labor markets have
softened further. Financial markets
remain under considerable stress, and
tight credit conditions and the
deepening housing contraction are
likely to weigh on economic growth
over the next few quarters.

Policy
Decision

Recent information indicates that
economic activity has remained weak
in recent months. Although
consumer spending appears to have
firmed somewhat, residential
investment has continued to
contract sharply and labor markets
have softened further. Financial
markets remain under considerable
stress, and tight credit conditions and
the deepening housing contraction are
likely to weigh on economic growth
over the next few quarters.

Recent information indicates that
overall economic activity continues to
expand, partly reflecting some
firming in household spending.
However, labor markets have softened
further and financial markets remain
under considerable stress. Tight credit
conditions, the ongoing housing
contraction, and the rise in energy
prices are likely to weigh on economic
growth over the next few quarters.

Recent information indicates that
overall economic activity continues to
expand, partly reflecting some
firming in household spending.
However, labor markets have softened
further and financial markets remain
under considerable stress. Tight credit
conditions, the ongoing housing
contraction, and the rise in energy
prices are likely to weigh on economic
growth over the next few quarters.

3. Although readings on core inflation
have improved somewhat, energy and
other commodity prices have
increased, and some indicators of
inflation expectations have risen in
recent months. The Committee expects
inflation to moderate in coming
quarters, reflecting a projected levelingout of energy and other commodity
prices and an easing of pressures on
resource utilization. Still, uncertainty
about the inflation outlook remains
high. It will be necessary to continue to
monitor inflation developments
carefully.

Although energy prices have increased
further and some indicators of inflation
expectations have risen in recent
months, core inflation has been stable
of late. The Committee expects
inflation to moderate later this year
and next year, reflecting a projected
leveling-out of energy prices and an
easing of pressures on resource
utilization. Still, uncertainty about the
inflation outlook remains high. It will be
necessary to continue to monitor
inflation developments carefully.

The Committee expects inflation to
moderate later this year and next
year. However, in light of the
continued increases in the prices of
energy and some other commodities
and the elevated state of some
indicators of inflation expectations,
uncertainty about the inflation outlook
remains high.

Overall inflation has been elevated,
energy prices have continued to
increase, and some indicators of
inflation expectations have risen
further. The Committee expects
inflation to moderate later this year
and next year, partly reflecting
today's policy action. Still, uncertainty
about the inflation outlook remains
high. It will be necessary to continue to
monitor inflation developments
carefully.

The substantial easing of monetary
policy to date, combined with ongoing
measures to foster market liquidity,
should help to promote moderate
growth over time and to mitigate risks
to economic activity. The Committee
will continue to monitor economic and
financial developments and will act as
needed to promote sustainable
economic growth and price stability.

The substantial easing of monetary
policy to date, combined with ongoing
measures to foster market liquidity,
should help to promote moderate
growth over time. Although downside
risks to growth remain, they appear
to have diminished somewhat, and
the upside risks to near-term
inflation and inflation expectations
have increased. The Committee will
continue to monitor economic and
financial developments and will act as
needed to promote sustainable
economic growth and price stability.

Future policy adjustments will
depend on the evolution of the
outlook for both inflation and
economic growth, as implied by
incoming information on the
economy and financial conditions.

4. The substantial easing of monetary
policy to date, combined with ongoing
measures to foster market liquidity,
should help to promote moderate
growth over time and to mitigate risks
to economic activity. The Committee
Assessment will continue to monitor economic and
financial developments and will act as
of Risk
needed to promote sustainable
economic growth and price stability.

Last update: March 7, 2014

Accessible Material
June 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts
Money and Debt Forecasts
Table 2: Alternative Growth Rates for M2
(percent, annual rate)

25 bp Easing No change 25 bp Tightening Greenbook Forecast*
Monthly Growth Rates
Dec-07

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

Jan-08

8.0

8.0

8.0

8.0

Feb-08

16.8

16.8

16.8

16.8

Mar-08

12.6

12.6

12.6

12.6

Apr-08

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

May-08

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

Jun-08

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

Jul-08

4.4

4.0

3.6

4.0

Aug-08

5.5

4.7

3.9

4.7

Sep-08

5.6

4.8

4.0

4.8

Oct-08

3.5

2.8

2.1

2.8

Nov-08

3.1

2.6

2.1

2.6

Dec-08

3.2

2.8

2.4

2.8

2007 Q4

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

2008 Q1

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.5

2008 Q2

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

2008 Q3

4.0

3.6

3.2

3.6

2008 Q4

4.1

3.4

2.8

3.4

2007

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

2008

6.0

5.7

5.5

5.7

2009

5.3

5.2

5.1

4.1

Jun-08 Dec-08

4.3

3.7

3.0

3.7

2008 Q1 Sep-08

5.1

4.9

4.6

4.9

2008 Q2 Dec-08

4.0

3.4

2.9

3.4

Quarterly Growth Rates

Annual Growth Rates

Growth From

To

* This forecast is consistent with nominal GDP and interest rates in the Greenbook forecast.  Return to table

Last update: March 7, 2014

Accessible Material
June 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts
Appendix A: Measures of the Equilibrium Real Rate
Measure
Singleequation
Model

Description
The measure of the equilibrium real rate in the single-equation model is based on an estimated aggregate-demand relationship between the current value of the
output gap and its lagged values as well as the lagged values of the real federal funds rate.

Small
Structural
Model

The small-scale model of the economy consists of equations for six variables: the output gap, the equity premium, the federal budget surplus, the trend growth rate
of output, the real bond yield, and the real federal funds rate.

Large
Model
(FRB/US)

Estimates of the equilibrium real rate using FRB/US--the staff's large-scale econometric model of the U.S. economy--depend on a very broad array of economic
factors, some of which take the form of projected values of the model's exogenous variables.

Greenbook- The FRB/US model is used in conjunction with an extended version of the Greenbook forecast to derive a Greenbook-consistent measure. FRB/US is first addconsistent factored so that its simulation matches the extended Greenbook forecast, and then a second simulation is run off this baseline to determine the value of the real
federal funds rate that closes the output gap.
TIPS-based Yields on TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) reflect investors' expectations of the future path of real interest rates, but also include term and liquidity
premiums. The TIPS-based measure of the equilibrium real rate is constructed using the seven-year-ahead instantaneous real forward rate derived from TIPS
Factor
yields as of the Bluebook publication date. This forward rate is adjusted to remove estimates of the term and liquidity premiums based on a three-factor arbitrageModel
free term-structure model applied to TIPS yields, nominal yields, and inflation. Because TIPS indexation is based on the total CPI, this measure is also adjusted for
the medium-term difference--projected at 40 basis points--between total CPI inflation and core PCE inflation.

Last update: March 7, 2014

Accessible Material
June 2008 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts†
Domestic Developments
Key Background Factors Underlying the Baseline Staff Projection
Note. In each panel, shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2008:Q3 except as noted.
Figure: Federal Funds Rate
Quarterly average
Percent

Period

Current Greenbook April Greenbook Market forecast

2004:Q1

1.00

1.00

1.00

2004:Q2

1.00

1.00

1.00

2004:Q3

1.42

1.42

1.42

2004:Q4

1.95

1.95

1.95

2005:Q1

2.45

2.45

2.45

2005:Q2

2.94

2.94

2.94

2005:Q3

3.40

3.40

3.40

2005:Q4

3.95

3.95

3.95

2006:Q1

4.42

4.42

4.42

2006:Q2

4.90

4.90

4.90

2006:Q3

5.25

5.25

5.25

2006:Q4

5.25

5.25

5.25

2007:Q1

5.25

5.25

5.25

2007:Q2

5.25

5.25

5.25

2007:Q3

5.20

5.20

5.20

2007:Q4

4.50

4.50

4.50

2008:Q1

3.17

3.17

3.17

2008:Q2

2.10

2.05

2.10

2008:Q3

2.00

1.75

2.10

2008:Q4

2.00

1.75

2.51

2009:Q1

2.20

1.75

2.80

2009:Q2

2.50

1.75

3.14

2009:Q3

2.75

1.75

3.39

2009:Q4

2.75

1.75

3.68

Figure: Long-Term Interest Rates
Quarterly average
Percent

Period

Baa corporate rate:
Current Greenbook

Baa corporate rate:
April Greenbook

10-year Treasury rate:
Current Greenbook

10-year Treasury rate:
April Greenbook

2004:Q1

6.27

6.27

4.01

4.01

2004:Q2

6.66

6.66

4.60

4.60

2004:Q3

6.45

6.45

4.30

4.30

2004:Q4

6.19

6.19

4.18

4.18

2005:Q1

5.97

5.97

4.30

4.30

2005:Q2

5.97

5.97

4.16

4.16

2005:Q3

5.98

5.98

4.22

4.22

2005:Q4

6.34

6.34

4.49

4.49

2006:Q1

6.31

6.31

4.58

4.58

2006:Q2

6.74

6.74

5.07

5.07

2006:Q3

6.59

6.59

4.89

4.89

2006:Q4

6.28

6.28

4.63

4.63

2007:Q1

6.30

6.30

4.68

4.68

2007:Q2

6.49

6.49

4.85

4.85

2007:Q3

6.63

6.63

4.74

4.74

2007:Q4

6.51

6.51

4.27

4.27

2008:Q1

6.75

6.75

3.67

3.67

2008:Q2

7.00

7.00

3.90

3.75

2008:Q3

7.10

6.90

4.20

3.80

2008:Q4

7.00

6.75

4.20

3.80

2009:Q1

6.85

6.65

4.15

3.85

2009:Q2

6.75

6.55

4.15

3.85

2009:Q3

6.60

6.45

4.10

3.90

2009:Q4

6.50

6.35

4.10

3.90

Figure: Equity Prices
Quarter-end
2004:Q1 = 100, ratio scale

Period

Wilshire 5000:
Wilshire 5000:
Current Greenbook April Greenbook

2004:Q1

100.00

100.00

2004:Q2

100.90

100.90

2004:Q3

98.70

98.70

2004:Q4

108.44

108.44

2005:Q1

105.42

105.42

2005:Q2

107.58

107.58

2005:Q3

111.32

111.32

2005:Q4

113.39

113.39

2006:Q1

119.17

119.17

2006:Q2

116.39

116.39

2006:Q3

120.89

120.89

2006:Q4

129.15

129.15

2007:Q1

130.53

130.53

2007:Q2

137.78

137.78

2007:Q3

139.16

139.16

2007:Q4

134.24

134.24

2008:Q1

120.77

120.77

2008:Q2

125.69

127.18

2008:Q3

127.81

129.35

2008:Q4

129.99

131.57

2009:Q1

132.84

133.84

2009:Q2

136.96

138.01

2009:Q3

141.22

142.31

2009:Q4

145.61

146.70

Figure: House Prices
Quarterly
2004:Q1 = 100, ratio scale

OFHEO purchase-only index:

OFHEO purchase-only index:

Period

Current Greenbook

April Greenbook

2004:Q1

100.00

100.00

2004:Q2

102.12

102.14

2004:Q3

104.56

104.60

2004:Q4

107.05

107.13

2005:Q1

109.39

109.45

2005:Q2

112.02

112.10

2005:Q3

114.73

114.83

2005:Q4

117.20

117.42

2006:Q1

119.17

119.29

2006:Q2

120.32

120.47

2006:Q3

120.87

121.14

2006:Q4

121.83

122.23

2007:Q1

122.96

123.25

2007:Q2

123.58

123.91

2007:Q3

123.00

123.48

2007:Q4

121.28

121.89

2008:Q1

119.19

119.98

2008:Q2

116.98

117.98

2008:Q3

114.75

115.99

2008:Q4

112.55

114.00

2009:Q1

110.38

112.04

2009:Q2

108.63

110.46

2009:Q3

107.38

109.28

2009:Q4

106.65

108.60

Note. The projection period begins in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Crude Oil Prices
Quarterly average
Dollars per barrel

Period

West Texas intermediate:
Current Greenbook

West Texas intermediate:
April Greenbook

2004:Q1

35.25

35.25

2004:Q2

38.34

38.34

2004:Q3

43.89

43.89

2004:Q4

48.31

48.31

2005:Q1

49.68

49.68

2005:Q2

53.09

53.09

2005:Q3

63.08

63.08

2005:Q4

60.03

60.03

2006:Q1

63.34

63.34

2006:Q2

70.53

70.53

2006:Q3

70.44

70.44

2006:Q4

60.04

60.04

2007:Q1

58.02

58.02

2007:Q2

64.97

64.97

2007:Q3

75.48

75.48

2007:Q4

90.75

90.75

2008:Q1

97.91

97.91

2008:Q2

123.65

116.63

2008:Q3

135.28

116.54

2008:Q4

136.42

114.76

2009:Q1

136.64

113.18

2009:Q2

136.39

111.84

2009:Q3

136.00

110.71

2009:Q4

135.70

109.81

Figure: Broad Real Dollar
Quarterly average
2004:Q1 = 100

Period

Exchange Rate:
Exchange Rate:
Current Greenbook April Greenbook

2004:Q1

100.00

100.00

2004:Q2

102.33

102.33

2004:Q3

101.46

101.46

2004:Q4

98.10

98.10

2005:Q1

97.13

97.12

2005:Q2

98.36

98.36

2005:Q3

99.41

99.41

2005:Q4

100.53

100.53

2006:Q1

99.01

99.01

2006:Q2

97.79

97.79

2006:Q3

97.72

97.72

2006:Q4

96.29

96.29

2007:Q1

96.24

96.24

2007:Q2

94.32

94.32

2007:Q3

92.38

92.38

2007:Q4

89.32

89.32

2008:Q1

87.46

87.49

2008:Q2

86.05

85.78

2008:Q3

86.75

85.40

2008:Q4

86.24

84.72

2009:Q1

85.63

84.08

2009:Q2

84.94

83.39

2009:Q3

84.26

82.69

2009:Q4

83.62

82.01

Summary of the Near-Term Outlook
(Percent change at annual rate except as noted)

2008:Q1

2008:Q2

Measure
Apr GB
Real GDP
Private domestic final purchases
Personal consumption expenditures
Residential investment
Business fixed investment
Government outlays for consumption and investment

June GB

Apr GB

June GB

.4

1.1

-1.4

1.7

-1.0

-.4

-2.2

.5

1.0

1.2

.2

2.2

-30.9

-24.7

-32.0

-23.7

-1.1

-.2

-6.7

-1.2

0.7

2.1

2.8

3.1

Contribution to growth (percentage points)
Inventory investment

.7

.3

-2.4

-1.5

Net exports

.3

.8

2.3

2.1

Projections of Real GDP
(Percent change at annual rate from end of preceding period except as noted)

2008
Measure

2009
H1

Real GDP

H2
1.4

.7

2.4

Previous

-.5

.9

2.8

Final sales

2.0

-.5

1.9

.3

-.2

2.1

1.7

-.7

1.5

.6

-.7

2.0

-24.2

-25.8

-6.4

-31.5

-22.1

-3.9

-.7

-1.1

1.9

-3.9

-3.7

1.3

2.6

1.8

1.5

1.8

2.2

1.5

6.4

7.2

7.5

6.3

7.3

8.2

-3.7

1.0

2.8

-3.0

-.3

3.9

Previous
PCE
Previous
Residential investment
Previous
BFI
Previous
Government purchases
Previous
Exports
Previous
Imports
Previous

Contribution to growth (percentage points)
Inventory change

-.6

1.1

.5

Previous

-.8

1.2

.7

Net exports
Previous

1.5

.7

.5

1.3

1.0

.4

Decomposition of Structural Labor Productivity
Nonfarm Business Sector
(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)

Measure
Structural labor productivity

1974-95

1996-2000

2001-05

2006

2007

2008

2009

1.5

2.5

2.8

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.5

2.5

2.8

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.8

Capital deepening

.7

1.4

.7

.7

.6

.5

.6

Previous

.7

1.4

.7

.7

.7

.5

.5

.5

.7

1.8

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3

Previous

.5

.7

1.8

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

Labor composition

.3

.3

.3

.2

.2

.2

.2

3.0

3.4

2.8

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

3.0

3.4

2.8

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

Previous
Contributions1

Multifactor productivity

MemO
Potential GDP
Previous

Note. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. For multiyear periods, the percent change is the annual average from Q4 of the year preceding the first year shown to Q4 of the
last year shown.
1. Percentage points.  Return to table

The Outlook for the Labor Market
(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)

Measure

2006 2007 2008 2009

Output per hour, nonfarm business

.8

Nonfarm private payroll employment

1.8

2.1

.9

Previous

2.9
2.9

1.0

2.7

1.7

Labor force participation rate1

1.0

-.9

1.0

.4

-.3

.8

2.1

Previous

-.6

.9

2.1

Household survey employment

.9

1.7

Previous

.4

-.6

1.0

66.3

66.0

65.8

65.6

66.3

66.0

65.6

65.4

4.4

4.8

5.6

5.6

4.4

4.8

5.7

5.5

.1

.1

-1.4

-1.5

.1

Previous

.1

-1.9

-1.3

Civilian unemployment rate1
Previous
MemO
GDP gap 2
Previous

1. Percent, average for the fourth quarter.  Return to table
2. Actual less potential GDP in the fourth quarter of the year indicated as a percent of potential GDP. A negative number thus indicates that the economy is operating below potential.  Return to
table

Inflation Projections
(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)

Measure
PCE chain-weighted price index
Previous
Food and beverages
Previous
Energy
Previous
Excluding food and energy
Previous
Consumer price index
Previous
Excluding food and energy
Previous
GDP chain-weighted price index
Previous
ECI for compensation of private industry workers 1
Previous
Compensation per hour, nonfarm business sector
Previous
Prices of core nonfuel imports
Previous
1. December to December.  Return to table

2006 2007 2008 2009
1.9

3.4

4.2

2.1

1.9

3.4

3.3

1.8

2.3

4.5

4.1

2.3

2.3

4.5

3.0

2.2

-4.0

19.6

28.0

.8

-4.0

19.6

16.2

-1.4

2.3

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.1

2.3

2.0

1.9

4.0

5.0

2.2

1.9

4.0

3.8

1.8

2.7

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.7

2.3

2.5

2.2

2.7

2.6

2.0

2.2

2.7

2.6

2.0

2.0

3.2

3.0

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.0

3.4

3.3

5.0

4.4

4.1

4.1

5.0

3.9

4.0

3.8

2.4

3.3

5.8

1.4

2.4

3.3

4.6

1.3

The Long-Term Outlook
(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)

Measure

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP

2.5

1.0

2.4

3.1

3.0

3.0

Civilian unemployment rate 1

4.8

5.6

5.6

5.4

5.1

4.9

PCE prices, total

3.4

4.2

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.7

Core PCE prices

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.7

Federal funds rate 1

4.5

2.0

2.8

3.3

3.5

4.2

1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period.  Return to table

Alternative Scenarios
(Percent change, annual rate, from end of preceding period except as noted)

2008
Measure and scenario

2009
H1

2010

2011-12

H2

Real GDP
Greenbook baseline

1.4

0.7

2.4

3.1

3.0

Upside risk

1.4

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.6

Recession

1.4

-0.8

1.8

3.8

3.5

Delayed credit recovery

1.4

0.4

2.0

2.8

3.2

Higher inflation expectations

1.4

0.6

2.5

3.0

2.8

Ongoing commodity price pressures

1.4

0.5

2.2

3.2

2.8

Less worker bargaining power

1.4

0.5

2.2

3.5

3.3

Greenbook baseline

5.3

5.6

5.6

5.4

4.9

Upside risk

5.3

5.3

5.0

5.1

5.0

Civilian unemployment rate 1

Recession

5.3

5.8

6.1

5.8

4.8

Delayed credit recovery

5.3

5.6

5.8

5.7

5.0

Higher inflation expectations

5.3

5.6

5.6

5.4

5.0

Ongoing commodity price pressures

5.3

5.6

5.7

5.5

4.9

Less worker bargaining power

5.3

5.6

5.7

5.4

4.7

Core PCE inflation
Greenbook baseline

2.1

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.8

Upside risk

2.1

2.5

2.3

2.1

2.0

Recession

2.1

2.5

2.1

1.8

1.6

Delayed credit recovery

2.1

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.7

Higher inflation expectations

2.1

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.2

Ongoing commodity price pressures

2.1

2.6

2.6

2.4

1.8

Less worker bargaining power

2.1

2.5

2.0

1.6

1.5

Greenbook baseline

2.1

2.0

2.8

3.3

4.2

Upside risk

2.1

2.9

4.2

3.8

4.2

Federal funds rate 1

Recession

2.1

1.4

1.4

2.6

4.3

Delayed credit recovery

2.1

1.9

2.3

2.6

4.0

Higher inflation expectations

2.1

2.0

3.2

4.0

4.6

Ongoing commodity price pressures

2.1

1.9

2.8

3.9

4.1

Less worker bargaining power

2.1

1.9

2.4

2.9

4.3

1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period.  Return to table

Selected Greenbook Projections and 70 Percent Confidence Intervals Derived from Historical Greenbook Forecast
Errors and FRB/US Simulations
Measure

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2.4

3.1

3.0

3.0

…

…

…

Real GDP (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection

1.0

Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors

-.1-2.2

.9-4.0

FRB/US stochastic simulations

.2-1.9

1.1-3.9 1.6-4.9 1.3-4.8 1.2-4.8

Civilian unemployment rate (percent, Q4)
Projection

5.6

5.6

5.4

5.1

4.9

…

…

…

Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors

5.3-5.9 4.9-6.4

FRB/US stochastic simulations 5.3-5.9 5.1-6.1 4.7-6.0 4.3-5.8 4.0-5.6
PCE prices, total (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection

4.2

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.7

…

…

…

.9-3.0

.8-3.0

.7-2.9

Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors

3.5-4.8 1.2-3.0

FRB/US stochastic simulations 3.6-4.8 1.2-3.1

PCE prices excluding food and energy (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.7

…

…

…

Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors

1.9-2.7 1.5-3.0

FRB/US stochastic simulations 2.0-2.6 1.7-2.8 1.3-2.7 1.1-2.6 1.0-2.6
Federal funds rate (percent, Q4)
Projection

2.0

2.8

3.3

3.5

4.2

Confidence interval
FRB/US stochastic simulations 1.4-2.7 1.4-4.2 1.9-5.0 2.1-5.4 2.7-6.1
Notes: Intervals derived from Greenbook forecast errors are based on projections made from 1987-2007. Shocks underlying FRB/US stochastic simulations are randomly drawn from the 19872007 set of model equation residuals.
… Not applicable. The Greenbook forecast horizon has typically extended about two years.  Return to table

Forecast Confidence Intervals and Alternative Scenarios under the Assumption that Monetary Policy Follows an
Estimated Taylor Rule
Confidence Intervals based on FRB/US Stochastic Simulations
Figure: Real GDP
4-quarter percent change

Period

90 percent
70 percent Greenbook
lower bound lower bound
baseline

70 percent
upper
bound

90 percent
upper
bound

Upside
Recession
risk

Delayed
credit
recovery

Higher
inflation
expectations

Ongoing
commodity price
pressures

Less worker
bargaining
power

2006:Q1

ND

ND

3.31

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q2

ND

ND

3.22

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q3

ND

ND

2.37

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q4

ND

ND

2.60

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q1

ND

ND

1.55

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q2

ND

ND

1.89

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q3

ND

ND

2.84

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q4

ND

ND

2.46

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2008:Q1

2.59

2.59

2.59

2.59

2.59

2.59

2.59

2.59

2.59

2.59

2.59

2008:Q2

1.45

1.74

2.07

2.40

2.50

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2.07

2008:Q3

0.01

0.41

1.07

1.72

2.10

1.59

0.69

0.98

1.08

1.03

1.02

2008:Q4

-0.34

0.17

1.04

1.93

2.46

2.09

0.31

0.84

1.00

0.93

0.93

2009:Q1

-0.55

0.03

1.10

2.24

2.87

2.55

0.08

0.77

1.07

0.90

0.93

2009:Q2

-0.54

0.16

1.34

2.65

3.35

2.95

0.18

0.90

1.37

1.15

1.12

2009:Q3

-0.17

0.59

1.82

3.24

4.01

2.83

0.90

1.35

1.88

1.66

1.60

2009:Q4

0.26

1.12

2.42

3.92

4.75

2.73

1.86

1.94

2.54

2.25

2.24

2010:Q1

0.52

1.46

2.86

4.42

5.27

2.57

2.68

2.44

2.98

2.78

2.80

2010:Q2

0.55

1.52

2.97

4.58

5.55

2.37

3.10

2.60

3.02

2.95

3.05

2010:Q3

0.63

1.55

3.06

4.75

5.74

2.38

3.54

2.76

3.04

3.10

3.29

2010:Q4

0.59

1.57

3.13

4.86

5.90

2.50

3.81

2.89

3.05

3.28

3.51

2011:Q1

0.50

1.47

3.11

4.87

5.87

2.56

3.89

2.97

2.98

3.22

3.56

2011:Q2

0.43

1.40

3.09

4.89

5.86

2.60

3.87

3.06

2.93

3.12

3.57

2011:Q3

0.34

1.41

3.06

4.82

5.83

2.63

3.78

3.15

2.89

3.02

3.53

2011:Q4

0.39

1.32

3.05

4.82

5.92

2.64

3.68

3.25

2.87

2.95

3.47

2012:Q1

0.37

1.32

3.04

4.85

5.87

2.65

3.61

3.28

2.87

2.92

3.41

2012:Q2

0.36

1.30

3.05

4.82

5.84

2.66

3.56

3.30

2.88

2.90

3.34

2012:Q3

0.29

1.27

3.04

4.77

5.82

2.66

3.50

3.28

2.88

2.86

3.26

2012:Q4

0.20

1.25

3.01

4.75

5.79

2.64

3.43

3.25

2.86

2.79

3.15

Figure: Unemployment Rate
Percent

Period

90 percent
70 percent Greenbook
lower bound lower bound
baseline

70 percent
upper
bound

90 percent
upper
bound

Upside
Recession
risk

Delayed
credit
recovery

Higher
inflation
expectations

Ongoing
commodity price
pressures

Less worker
bargaining
power

2006:Q1

ND

ND

4.702

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q2

ND

ND

4.665

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q3

ND

ND

4.657

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q4

ND

ND

4.438

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q1

ND

ND

4.491

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q2

ND

ND

4.507

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q3

ND

ND

4.676

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q4

ND

ND

4.796

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2008:Q1

4.940

4.940

4.940

4.940

4.940

4.940

4.940

4.940

4.940

4.940

4.940

2008:Q2

5.117

5.157

5.262

5.360

5.432

5.262

5.262

5.262

5.262

5.262

5.262

2008:Q3

5.179

5.290

5.498

5.706

5.824

5.387

5.580

5.518

5.497

5.506

5.508

2008:Q4

5.137

5.303

5.606

5.901

6.066

5.330

5.803

5.658

5.613

5.634

5.633

2009:Q1

5.068

5.286

5.660

6.034

6.238

5.220

5.975

5.753

5.670

5.716

5.710

2009:Q2

4.974

5.220

5.666

6.098

6.333

5.115

6.072

5.803

5.666

5.736

5.739

2009:Q3

4.915

5.189

5.690

6.164

6.427

5.100

6.172

5.872

5.677

5.767

5.784

2009:Q4

4.797

5.090

5.638

6.149

6.455

5.062

6.158

5.863

5.615

5.737

5.748

2010:Q1

4.695

4.980

5.580

6.121

6.445

5.052

6.104

5.841

5.553

5.687

5.689

2010:Q2

4.564

4.889

5.519

6.078

6.431

5.050

6.014

5.809

5.493

5.616

5.611

2010:Q3

4.435

4.789

5.455

6.032

6.387

5.051

5.892

5.767

5.435

5.532

5.516

2010:Q4

4.325

4.696

5.388

5.978

6.343

5.047

5.755

5.719

5.381

5.449

5.409

2011:Q1

4.191

4.604

5.324

5.946

6.321

5.041

5.616

5.654

5.332

5.376

5.300

2011:Q2

4.081

4.510

5.261

5.905

6.315

5.032

5.480

5.576

5.286

5.306

5.189

2011:Q3

3.969

4.414

5.197

5.855

6.273

5.020

5.348

5.489

5.241

5.238

5.081

2011:Q4

3.848

4.336

5.132

5.833

6.252

5.005

5.220

5.396

5.195

5.169

4.976

2012:Q1

3.741

4.247

5.067

5.786

6.236

4.989

5.097

5.299

5.148

5.104

4.878

2012:Q2

3.667

4.167

5.000

5.727

6.199

4.968

4.978

5.200

5.099

5.039

4.785

2012:Q3

3.613

4.091

4.936

5.688

6.144

4.948

4.866

5.104

5.051

4.978

4.702

2012:Q4

3.512

4.011

4.877

5.647

6.112

4.930

4.765

5.014

5.007

4.926

4.632

Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
4-quarter percent change

Period

90 percent
70 percent Greenbook
lower bound lower bound
baseline

70 percent
upper
bound

90 percent
upper
bound

Upside
Recession
risk

Delayed
credit
recovery

Higher
inflation
expectations

Ongoing
commodity price
pressures

Less worker
bargaining
power

2006:Q1

ND

ND

2.039

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q2

ND

ND

2.238

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q3

ND

ND

2.404

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q4

ND

ND

2.291

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q1

ND

ND

2.388

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q2

ND

ND

2.007

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q3

ND

ND

1.922

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q4

ND

ND

2.080

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2008:Q1

2.026

2.026

2.026

2.026

2.026

2.026

2.026

2.026

2.026

2.026

2.026

2008:Q2

2.040

2.081

2.174

2.270

2.312

2.174

2.174

2.174

2.174

2.174

2.174

2008:Q3

2.004

2.114

2.293

2.481

2.575

2.283

2.301

2.295

2.268

2.301

2.295

2008:Q4

1.868

2.033

2.299

2.581

2.733

2.281

2.310

2.302

2.325

2.330

2.288

2009:Q1

1.742

1.985

2.345

2.724

2.947

2.331

2.350

2.350

2.477

2.431

2.308

2009:Q2

1.675

1.965

2.418

2.892

3.172

2.420

2.409

2.424

2.647

2.577

2.341

2009:Q3

1.464

1.812

2.333

2.877

3.195

2.367

2.298

2.336

2.680

2.599

2.199

2009:Q4

1.247

1.653

2.213

2.812

3.141

2.279

2.147

2.212

2.611

2.592

2.018

2010:Q1

1.148

1.526

2.122

2.764

3.136

2.213

2.028

2.116

2.526

2.572

1.863

2010:Q2

1.042

1.451

2.054

2.724

3.121

2.161

1.933

2.042

2.470

2.546

1.744

2010:Q3

0.982

1.382

2.004

2.712

3.112

2.126

1.857

1.985

2.435

2.474

1.657

2010:Q4

0.904

1.296

1.958

2.688

3.113

2.096

1.788

1.932

2.395

2.359

1.594

2011:Q1

0.788

1.224

1.917

2.693

3.143

2.069

1.729

1.880

2.353

2.230

1.554

2011:Q2

0.739

1.176

1.880

2.684

3.115

2.045

1.679

1.832

2.317

2.097

1.526

2011:Q3

0.663

1.142

1.847

2.659

3.105

2.023

1.636

1.787

2.285

1.977

1.508

2011:Q4

0.609

1.107

1.818

2.640

3.105

2.003

1.600

1.747

2.255

1.877

1.499

2012:Q1

0.603

1.072

1.793

2.630

3.094

1.986

1.571

1.712

2.228

1.805

1.498

2012:Q2

0.578

1.074

1.773

2.632

3.105

1.972

1.548

1.682

2.204

1.758

1.502

2012:Q3

0.573

1.050

1.756

2.619

3.085

1.960

1.532

1.657

2.184

1.732

1.510

2012:Q4

0.572

1.040

1.744

2.625

3.084

1.951

1.522

1.636

2.167

1.727

1.522

Figure: Federal Funds Rate
Percent

Period

90 percent
70 percent Greenbook
lower bound lower bound
baseline

70 percent
upper
bound

90 percent
upper
bound

Upside
Recession
risk

Delayed
credit
recovery

Higher
inflation
expectations

Ongoing
commodity price
pressures

Less worker
bargaining
power

2006:Q1

ND

ND

4.46

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q2

ND

ND

4.91

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q3

ND

ND

5.25

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2006:Q4

ND

ND

5.25

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q1

ND

ND

5.26

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q2

ND

ND

5.25

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q3

ND

ND

5.07

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2007:Q4

ND

ND

4.50

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

2008:Q1

3.18

3.18

3.18

3.18

3.18

3.18

3.18

3.18

3.18

3.18

3.18

2008:Q2

2.07

2.08

2.10

2.12

2.12

2.10

2.10

2.10

2.10

2.10

2.10

2008:Q3

1.34

1.62

2.00

2.41

2.59

2.35

1.74

1.93

2.00

1.98

1.97

2008:Q4

0.91

1.35

2.00

2.67

3.02

2.86

1.38

1.84

1.98

1.92

1.91

2009:Q1

0.69

1.29

2.20

3.15

3.61

3.53

1.25

1.92

2.21

2.07

2.03

2009:Q2

0.65

1.39

2.50

3.64

4.24

4.09

1.32

2.10

2.63

2.39

2.24

2009:Q3

0.69

1.52

2.75

4.10

4.76

4.33

1.42

2.24

3.04

2.72

2.39

2009:Q4

0.51

1.43

2.75

4.23

4.95

4.15

1.39

2.14

3.20

2.80

2.30

2010:Q1

0.48

1.39

2.75

4.29

5.10

3.90

1.47

2.08

3.32

2.93

2.25

2010:Q2

0.74

1.62

3.00

4.60

5.46

3.90

1.88

2.29

3.64

3.36

2.50

2010:Q3

0.73

1.64

3.00

4.68

5.48

3.68

2.09

2.26

3.67

3.53

2.53

2010:Q4

0.95

1.88

3.25

4.97

5.84

3.77

2.57

2.50

3.92

3.88

2.84

2011:Q1

0.91

1.85

3.25

4.98

5.93

3.65

2.76

2.54

3.90

3.89

2.92

2011:Q2

0.84

1.89

3.25

5.00

5.95

3.56

2.92

2.61

3.87

3.84

3.01

2011:Q3

0.77

1.85

3.25

5.05

6.01

3.50

3.04

2.69

3.83

3.74

3.09

2011:Q4

1.06

2.06

3.50

5.40

6.27

3.69

3.39

3.03

4.04

3.87

3.42

2012:Q1

1.18

2.26

3.71

5.58

6.50

3.85

3.67

3.32

4.22

3.95

3.70

2012:Q2

1.36

2.40

3.90

5.77

6.75

3.99

3.92

3.58

4.37

4.02

3.94

2012:Q3

1.50

2.55

4.06

5.96

6.98

4.10

4.13

3.79

4.50

4.08

4.13

2012:Q4

1.61

2.67

4.19

6.07

7.11

4.18

4.29

3.97

4.60

4.13

4.28

Evolution of the Staff Forecast
Figure: Change in Real GDP
A line chart shows change in real GDP for "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is Percent,
Q4/Q4.

The 2007 series begins at about 3.0 at the beginning of 2006, decreases to about 2.1 on September 13, 2006, and fluctuates between about 1.9 and 2.25 through
October 24, 2007 and generally increases to end at about 2.5 on June 18, 2008.

The 2008 series begins at about 2.4 on September 13, 2006, stays generally the same through June 20, 2007, then decreases to about 0.1 in March, and
increases to end at about 1.0 on June 18, 2008.

The 2009 series begins at about 2.25 on September 12, 2007 through January 23, 2008, increases to about 3.0 on March 13, 2008, and then decreases to end at
about 2.4 on June 18, 2008.

Figure: Unemployment Rate
A line shows unemployment rate for "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is percent, fourth
quarter.

The 2007 series begins at about 5.1 percent on January 25, 2006, decreases to about 4.9 on March 22, and increases to about 5.2 on June 21. It then decreases
to about 4.7 on June 20, 2007 and stays about the same through December 5, 2007, and then increases to about 4.8 on January 23, 2008, stays about the same
to end on June 18, 3008.

The 2008 series begins at about 5.2 percent on September 13, 2006, decreases to about 4.9 on January 24, 2007, increases to about 5.1 on March 14, and
decreases to about 4.8 on June 20, 2007. It then increases to about 5.7 on March 13, 2008, stays about the same on April 23, 2008, and decreases to end at
about 5.6 on June 18, 2008.

The 2009 series begins at about 4.9 percent on September 9, 2007, decreases to about 4.8 on October 24, 2007, then increases to about 5.5 on March 13, 2008,
stays about the same on April 23, 2008 and increases to end at about 5.6 on June 18, 2008.

Figure: Change in PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
A line chart shows three series, "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is Percent, Q4/Q4.

The 2007 series begins at about 1.75 percent on January 25, 2006, increases to about 2.3 on September 13, 2006, stays generally the same through May 2,
decreases to about 1.75 on October 24, 2007, and then increases to about 2.1 on January 23, 2008 and ends at about the same on June 18, 2008.

The 2008 series begins at about 2.1 percent on September 13, 2006, stays generally the same through May 2, decreases to about 1.9 on September 12, , and
then increases to about 2.25 on March 13, 2008 and ends at about the same on June 18, 2008.

The 2009 series begins at about 1.9 percent on September 12, 2007 and stays the same through March 13, 2008. It then increases to end at about 2.25 on June
18, 2008.

Changes in GDP, Prices, and Unemployment
(Percent, annual rate except as noted)

Nominal GDP

Real GDP

PCE price index

Core PCE price index Unemployment rate 1

Interval
04/23/08 06/18/08 04/23/08 06/18/08 04/23/08 06/18/08

04/23/08

06/18/08

04/23/08

06/18/08

Quarterly
2007: Q1

4.9

4.9

.6

.6

3.5

3.5

2.4

2.4

4.5

4.5

Q2

6.6

6.6

3.8

3.8

4.3

4.3

1.4

1.4

4.5

4.5

Q3

6.0

6.0

4.9

4.9

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.0

4.7

4.7

Q4

3.0

3.0

.6

.6

3.9

3.9

2.5

2.5

4.8

4.8

2008: Q1

3.0

3.9

.4

1.1

3.5

3.6

2.1

2.2

4.9

4.9

Q2

-.6

1.9

-1.4

1.7

4.3

4.1

2.3

2.0

5.2

5.3

Q3

3.7

3.9

1.2

.9

3.2

5.9

2.4

2.5

5.5

5.5

Q4

2.8

2.7

.7

.5

2.2

3.1

2.4

2.6

5.7

5.6

2009: Q1

4.0

3.8

1.7

1.4

2.0

2.5

2.2

2.4

5.7

5.7

Q2

5.3

5.1

3.1

2.7

1.7

2.1

2.0

2.3

5.6

5.7

Q3

5.2

4.9

3.2

2.8

1.6

2.0

1.9

2.1

5.6

5.7

Q4

5.2

4.8

3.3

2.8

1.7

2.0

1.9

2.1

5.5

5.6

2007: Q2

5.7

5.7

2.2

2.2

3.9

3.9

1.9

1.9

.1

.1

Q4

4.5

4.5

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.3

2.3

.3

.3

2008: Q2

1.2

2.9

-.5

1.4

3.9

3.8

2.2

2.1

.4

.5

Q4

3.2

3.3

.9

.7

2.7

4.5

2.4

2.5

.5

.3

2009: Q2

4.6

4.4

2.4

2.0

1.9

2.3

2.1

2.3

-.1

.1

Q4

5.2

4.9

3.3

2.8

1.7

2.0

1.9

2.1

-.1

-.1

5.4

5.4

2.6

2.6

1.9

1.9

2.3

2.3

-.5

-.5

Two-quarter 2

Four-quarter 3
2006:Q4
2007:Q4

5.1

5.1

2.5

2.5

3.4

3.4

2.1

2.1

.4

.4

2008:Q4

2.2

3.1

.2

1.0

3.3

4.2

2.3

2.3

.9

.8

2009:Q4

4.9

4.6

2.8

2.4

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.2

-.2

.0

2006

6.1

6.1

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.2

2.2

4.6

4.6

2007

4.9

4.9

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.1

4.6

4.6

2008

3.0

3.7

1.0

1.7

3.4

3.8

2.2

2.2

5.3

5.3

Annual

2009

3.9

3.9

1.8

1.7

2.2

2.9

2.2

2.3

5.6

5.7

1. Level, except for two-quarter and four-quarter intervals.  Return to table
2. Percent change from two quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points.  Return to table
3. Percent change from four quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points.  Return to table

Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items
(Percent, annual rate except as noted)

2007

2008

2009

20071 20081 20091

Item
Q1
Real GDP

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

.6

Final sales

4.9

.6

1.1

1.7

.9

.5

1.4

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.5

1.0

2.4

.6

Previous

3.8
3.8

4.9

.6

.4

-1.4

1.2

.7

1.7

3.1

3.2

3.3

2.5

.2

2.8

1.3

Previous
Durables

.9

3.2

1.7

-2.6

.6

2.8

2.5

1.6

2.8

.8

1.9

2.4

-.3

.9

2.1

-2.5

.3

3.3

2.9

2.0

2.8

.0

2.1

2.2

1.7

2.2

1.1

-.4

.5

.9

-4.4

-.2

1.2

1.9

2.2

1.8

-.9

1.3

1.7

2.2

1.1

-1.0

-2.2

.3

-4.1

-.2

2.0

2.2

2.8

1.8

-1.8

1.7

3.7

1.4

2.8

2.3

1.2

2.2

2.6

-3.8

1.0

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.6

.5

1.5

1.4

2.8

2.3

1.0

.2

2.7

-3.9

.6

2.3

2.2

2.7

2.6

.0

2.0

8.8

Personal cons. expend.

2.4

4.0

3.7

Previous

4.0

3.6

2.2

Priv. dom. final purch.

3.6

1.3

Previous

1.7

4.5

2.0

-5.8

.1

8.2

.9

3.6

4.1

4.8

4.9

4.2

.7

4.4

Nondurables

3.0

-.5

2.2

1.2

.1

4.5

2.5

-5.2

1.2

1.7

1.9

2.3

1.5

.4

1.8

Services

3.1

2.3

2.8

2.8

3.0

1.4

1.7

-3.9

.4

.9

1.1

1.2

2.8

.5

.9

-16.3 -11.8 -20.5 -25.2 -24.7 -23.7 -24.8 -26.9 -22.0

-4.1

.5

2.2

-18.6

-25.0

-6.4

-16.3 -11.8 -20.5 -25.2 -30.9 -32.0 -26.5 -17.5 -11.5

-3.3

-.8

.7

-18.6

-26.9

-3.9

Residential investment
Previous
Business fixed invest.

Equipment & software

11.0

9.3

6.0

-.2

-1.2

-.9

-1.2

-1.3

.8

3.6

4.4

7.1

-.9

1.9

2.1

Previous

2.1

11.0

9.3

6.0

-1.1

-6.7

-6.2

-1.1

-2.8

1.3

2.9

4.1

7.1

-3.8

1.3

.3

4.7

6.2

3.1

-1.1

-5.4

-1.3

-1.1

-1.2

1.3

4.8

5.7

3.6

-2.2

2.6

Previous

.3

4.7

6.2

3.1

-.2

-8.4

-7.7

-.3

-2.6

3.3

5.6

7.3

3.6

-4.2

3.3

Nonres. structures

6.4

26.2

16.4

12.4

1.7

7.8

-.1

-1.4

-1.4

.0

1.4

2.0

15.1

1.9

.5

Previous

6.4

26.2

16.4

12.4

-2.8

-3.2

-2.9

-2.7

-3.1

-2.7

-2.4

-2.1

15.1

-2.9

-2.6

-612

-574

-533

-503

-481

-421

-401

-377

-366

-327

-307

-315

-556

-420

-329

-612

-574

-533

-503

-492

-428

-388

-371

-366

-330

-306

-318

-556

-420

-330

Exports

1.1

7.5

19.1

6.5

5.6

7.2

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.5

7.5

7.6

8.4

6.8

7.5

Imports

3.9

-2.7

4.4

-1.4

-.5

-6.7

1.2

.7

3.6

-2.1

1.9

8.1

1.0

-1.4

2.8

Net exports 2
Previous

2

Govt. cons. & invest.

Federal
Defense
Nondefense
State & local
Change in bus. inventories 2
Previous
Nonfarm 2
Farm2

2

-.5

4.1

3.8

2.0

2.1

3.1

1.6

1.9

2.1

1.7

1.2

1.1

2.3

2.2

1.5

-.5

4.1

3.8

2.0

.7

2.8

2.1

2.3

2.0

1.7

1.3

1.1

2.3

2.0

1.5

-6.3

Previous

6.0

7.1

.5

4.4

6.2

2.7

3.9

4.5

3.1

2.7

2.3

1.7

4.3

3.2

-10.8

8.5

10.1

-.5

5.6

8.9

4.0

5.3

6.1

4.1

3.4

2.9

1.5

5.9

4.1

3.8

.9

1.1

2.8

1.8

.7

.1

.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.1

.9

1.0

3.0

3.0

1.9

2.8

.8

1.4

.9

.8

.8

.8

.4

.4

2.7

1.0

.6

0

6

31

-18

-13

-54

-78

7

28

25

33

66

5

-35

38

0

6

31

-18

-1

-68

-93

-3

36

32

40

75

5

-41

46

-6

1

26

-22

-12

-56

-81

6

28

25

33

67

0

-36

38

5

4

4

2

-1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

4

0

1

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated.  Return to table
2. Billions of chained (2000) dollars.  Return to table

Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items
(Percent, annual rate except as noted)

20011

20021

20031

20041

20051

20061

20071

20081

20091

.2

1.9

3.7

3.1

2.9

2.6

2.5

1.0

2.4

.2

1.9

3.7

3.1

2.9

2.6

2.5

.2

2.8

1.5

.8

3.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.8

.8

1.9

1.5

Item

.8

3.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.8

.0

2.1

Real GDP
Previous
Final sales
Previous
Priv. dom. final purch.

1.0

Durables

4.3

3.3

2.4

1.8

-.9

1.3

4.1

4.3

3.3

2.4

1.8

-1.8

1.7

1.9

3.4

3.7

2.8

3.4

2.6

.5

1.5

2.8

Previous

4.1

1.1

2.8

Personal cons. expend.

1.1

1.0

Previous

1.9

3.4

3.7

2.8

3.4

2.6

.0

2.0

10.8

1.2

8.3

5.6

1.2

6.6

4.2

.7

4.4

Nondurables

1.9

2.1

3.9

3.5

3.6

3.6

1.5

.4

1.8

Services

1.6

1.9

2.2

3.3

2.7

2.6

2.8

.5

.9

Residential investment

1.4

7.0

11.7

6.7

6.4

-12.8

-18.6

-25.0

-6.4

1.4

7.0

11.7

6.7

6.4

-12.8

-18.6

-26.9

-3.9

-9.6

-6.5

4.9

7.5

5.1

5.2

7.1

-.9

1.9

-9.6

-6.5

4.9

7.5

5.1

5.2

7.1

-3.8

1.3

Previous
Business fixed invest.
Previous
Equipment & software

-9.0

-3.4

6.6

9.4

7.1

2.5

3.6

-2.2

2.6

-9.0

-3.4

6.6

9.4

7.1

2.5

3.6

-4.2

3.3

Nonres. structures

-11.1

-14.9

.2

2.3

-.3

12.3

15.1

1.9

.5

Previous

-11.1

-14.9

.2

2.3

-.3

12.3

15.1

-2.9

-2.6

-399

-471

-519

-594

-618

-624

-556

-420

-329

-399

-471

-519

-594

-618

-624

-556

-420

-330

Exports

-11.9

3.8

5.8

7.4

7.0

9.3

8.4

6.8

7.5

Imports

-7.6

9.7

4.8

11.5

5.1

3.7

1.0

-1.4

2.8

5.0

4.0

1.7

.7

.9

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.5

5.0

4.0

1.7

.7

.9

2.5

2.3

2.0

1.5

Previous

Net exports 2
Previous2

Govt. cons. & invest.
Previous
Federal

6.4

7.8

5.5

2.4

1.3

3.7

1.7

4.3

3.2

Defense

6.5

8.4

7.5

2.5

1.1

5.9

1.5

5.9

4.1

Nondefense

6.3

6.8

1.9

2.3

1.9

-.7

2.1

.9

1.0

4.2

2.1

-.4

-.4

.7

1.8

2.7

1.0

.6

Change in bus. inventories 2

-32

12

14

54

33

40

5

-35

38

2

-32

12

14

54

33

40

5

-41

46

-32

15

14

48

34

42

0

-36

38

0

-2

0

6

-0

-1

4

0

1

State & local

Previous
Nonfarm
Farm

2

2

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated.  Return to table
2. Billions of chained (2000) dollars.  Return to table

Contributions to Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product
(Percentage points, annual rate except as noted)

2007

2008

2009

20071 20081 20091

Item
Q1
Real GDP

.6

Q2
3.8

Q3
4.9

Q4
.6

Q1
1.1

Q2
1.7

Q3
.9

Q4
.5

Q1
1.4

Q2
2.7

Q3
2.8

Q4
2.8

2.5

1.0

2.4

Previous

Previous
Priv. dom. final purch.
Previous
Personal cons. expend.
Previous

3.8

4.9

.6

1.3

Final sales

.6

.4

-1.4

1.2

.7

1.7

3.1

3.2

3.3

2.5

.2

2.8

3.6

4.0

1.3

3.6

4.0

2.4

.9

3.2

1.7

-2.7

.6

2.8

2.5

1.7

2.8

.8

1.9

2.4

-.3

1.0

2.1

-2.5

.3

3.3

2.9

2.1

2.8

.0

2.1

1.9

1.5

1.9

1.0

-.3

.4

.8

-3.9

-.1

1.1

1.6

1.9

1.6

-.8

1.1

1.9

1.5

1.9

1.0

-.8

-1.9

.3

-3.6

-.2

1.7

1.9

2.4

1.6

-1.5

1.4

2.6

1.0

2.0

1.6

.8

1.5

1.8

-2.8

.7

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.8

.4

1.1

2.6

1.0

2.0

1.6

.7

.2

1.9

-2.9

.4

1.7

1.6

1.9

1.8

.0

1.4

.7

.1

.4

.2

-.5

.0

.6

.1

.3

.3

.3

.4

.3

.1

.3

Durables
Nondurables
Services

.6

-.1

.5

.3

.0

.9

.5

-1.1

.3

.4

.4

.5

.3

.1

.4

1.3

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.3

.6

.7

-1.7

.2

.4

.5

.5

1.2

.2

.4

-.9

-.6

-1.1

-1.3

-1.1

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-.7

-.1

.0

.1

-1.0

-1.0

-.2

-.9

-.6

-1.1

-1.3

-1.5

-1.4

-1.0

-.6

-.4

-.1

.0

.0

-1.0

-1.1

-.1

.2

1.1

1.0

.6

.0

-.1

-.1

-.1

-.1

.1

.4

.4

.7

-.1

.2

.2

1.1

1.0

.6

-.1

-.7

-.7

-.1

-.3

.1

.3

.4

.7

-.4

.1

Residential investment
Previous
Business fixed invest.
Previous
Equipment & software

.0

.3

.4

.2

-.1

-.4

-.1

-.1

-.1

.1

.3

.4

.3

-.2

.2

Previous

.0

.3

.4

.2

.0

-.6

-.6

.0

-.2

.2

.4

.5

.3

-.3

.2

Nonres. structures

.2

.8

.5

.4

.1

.3

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.1

.5

.1

.0

Previous

.2

.8

.5

.4

-.1

-.1

-.1

-.1

-.1

-.1

-.1

-.1

.5

-.1

-.1

-.5

1.3

1.4

1.0

.8

2.1

.7

.8

.3

1.4

.7

-.4

.8

1.1

.5

-.5

1.3

1.4

1.0

.3

2.3

1.4

.6

.1

1.2

.8

-.5

.8

1.2

.4

Exports

.1

.9

2.1

.8

.7

.9

.9

.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

.9

1.0

Imports

-.6

.5

-.7

.2

.1

1.3

-.2

-.1

-.7

.4

-.4

-1.5

-.2

.3

-.5

-.1

.8

.7

.4

.4

.6

.3

.4

.4

.3

.3

.2

.4

.4

.3

-.1

.8

.7

.4

.1

.6

.4

.5

.4

.4

.3

.2

.4

.4

.3

-.5

.4

.5

.0

.3

.4

.2

.3

.3

.2

.2

.2

.1

.3

.2

-.5

.4

.5

.0

.3

.4

.2

.3

.3

.2

.2

.2

.1

.3

.2

.1

.0

.0

.1

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.4

.4

.2

.3

.1

.2

.1

.1

.1

.1

.1

.1

.3

.1

.1

-.7

.2

.9

-1.8

.3

-1.5

-.9

3.1

.8

-.1

.3

1.2

-.3

.3

.5

-.7

.2

.9

-1.8

.7

-2.4

-.9

3.2

1.4

-.1

.3

1.2

-.3

.2

.7

-.7

.3

.9

-1.7

.3

-1.6

-.9

3.2

.8

-.1

.3

1.2

-.3

.2

.5

.0

-.1

.0

-.1

-.1

.1

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

Net exports
Previous

Govt. cons. & invest.
Previous
Federal
Defense
Nondefense
State & local
Change in bus. inventories
Previous
Nonfarm
Farm

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated.  Return to table

Changes in Prices and Costs
(Percent, annual rate except as noted)

2007

2008

2009

20071 20081 20091

Item
Q1
GDP chain-wt. price index
Previous
PCE chain-wt. price index
Previous
Energy
Previous
Food
Previous

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

4.2

2.6

1.0

2.4

2.7

4.2

2.6

1.0

2.4

3.5

4.3

1.8

3.9

3.5

4.3

1.8

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

.2

3.0

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.6

2.0

2.2

2.6

.9

2.4

2.1

2.3

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.6

2.0

2.0

3.6

4.1

5.9

3.1

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.0

3.4

4.2

2.1

3.9

3.5

4.3

3.2

2.2

2.0

1.7

1.6

1.7

3.4

3.3

1.8

16.1

51.3

-6.7

24.9

18.6

27.4

61.7

10.0

3.5

.0

-.5

.2

19.6

28.0

.8

16.1

51.3

-6.7

24.9

18.7

35.7

13.8

-.6

-.7

-2.2

-1.8

-1.0

19.6

16.2

-1.4

4.8

4.7

4.7

3.6

4.8

6.1

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

4.5

4.1

2.3

4.8

4.7

4.7

3.6

4.8

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.0

4.5

3.0

2.2

Ex. food & energy

2.4

1.4

2.0

2.5

2.2

2.0

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.2

Previous

2.4

1.4

2.0

2.5

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.0

3.7

4.6

2.8

5.0

4.3

4.7

7.6

3.5

2.7

2.1

2.0

2.1

4.0

5.0

2.2

3.7

4.6

2.8

5.0

4.3

5.2

3.7

2.2

2.1

1.7

1.7

1.8

4.0

3.8

1.8

Ex. food & energy

2.3

2.0

2.5

2.5

2.5

1.7

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

Previous

2.3

2.0

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.2

2.7

3.1

3.1

3.5

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.4

3.4

2.3

3.5

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.0

3.4

3.3

1.3

2.7

6.0

1.8

2.9

2.3

1.2

.8

1.3

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.9

1.8

2.1

1.0

2.6

6.3

1.9

1.0

-.5

2.3

1.3

2.1

3.2

2.8

2.7

2.9

1.0

2.7

6.4

1.3

3.3

6.6

4.9

3.9

4.0

3.9

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.4

4.1

4.1

6.4

1.3

3.4

4.7

4.1

3.9

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.9

4.0

3.8

5.0

-1.3

-2.5

4.7

2.0

1.5

2.7

3.0

2.8

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.4

2.3

2.0

5.4

-1.3

-2.7

2.7

3.1

4.4

1.7

2.5

1.7

.7

.9

.9

.9

2.9

1.0

CPI
Previous

 

 

ECI, hourly compensation2
Previous2
Nonfarm business sector
Output per hour
Previous
Compensation per hour
Previous
Unit labor costs
Previous

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated.  Return to table
2. Private-industry workers.  Return to table

Other Macroeconomic Indicators
2007

2008

2009

20071 20081 20091

Item
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Employment and production
Nonfarm payroll employment 2

GDP gap

Previous

-.1

-.1

-.1

-.1

.2

.3

.3

.4

1.2

-.5

1.2

4.5

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.3

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

4.8

5.6

5.6

4.5

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.2

5.5

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.5

4.8

5.7

5.5

.0

.5

.1

-.3

-.5

-.9

-1.4

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.5

.1

-1.4

-1.5

-.3

.0

.6

.1

-.3

-1.2

-1.5

-1.9

-2.0

-1.8

-1.6

-1.3

.1

-1.9

-1.3

1.5

3.2

3.6

.3

-.3

-3.2

1.8

2.4

2.6

1.9

2.4

3.8

2.1

.1

2.7

1.5

4

.3

-.4

4

.3

4.5

Previous3

.3

4.5

Unemployment rate

.4

3

3.2

3.6

.4

-.1

-.8

.2

2.7

2.4

2.3

2.4

3.1

2.2

.5

2.6

1.1

4.7

4.0

-.6

-1.2

-3.5

.7

.9

1.8

2.2

2.7

3.8

2.3

-.8

2.6

 

 

Industrial production 5
Previous5
Manufacturing industr. prod.
Previous

5

5

1.1

Previous3

4.7

4.0

-.6

-.5

-1.4

-.8

1.9

2.2

2.8

2.7

3.5

2.3

-.2

2.8

78.9

79.5

79.8

79.3

78.6

77.6

77.4

77.3

77.4

77.5

77.7

78.1

79.3

77.3

78.1

78.9

Capacity utilization rate - mfg. 3

79.5

79.8

79.3

78.8

78.1

77.7

77.8

77.9

78.2

78.4

78.8

79.3

77.8

78.8

 

 

Housing starts 6

1.5

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

.9

.8

.8

.8

.9

.9

1.4

.9

.9

16.3

16.0

15.9

16.1

15.2

14.1

14.4

14.6

14.8

15.0

15.2

15.4

16.1

14.6

15.1

4.9

6.6

6.0

3.0

3.9

1.9

3.9

2.7

3.8

5.1

4.9

4.8

5.1

3.1

4.6

5.4

-.8

4.0

.9

1.7

12.0 -10.4

-2.8

3.7

1.7

1.4

2.4

2.4

-.2

2.3

5.4

Light motor vehicle sales 6

-.8

4.0

.1

2.1

9.5

-8.4

-1.5

4.2

2.1

1.5

2.5

2.2

.2

2.6

1.0

.3

.4

.2

.5

2.8

-.5

-.3

.4

.4

.4

.5

.2

-.3

.5

1.0

.3

.4

.0

.2

2.4

-.4

.2

1.1

1.1

.9

.9

.0

.2

.9

4.4

26.8

-4.9 -12.4

-4.1

3.2

.2

1.9

4.6

5.8

6.6

9.2

2.5

.3

6.5

11.4

11.9

11.5

10.8

10.9

10.8

10.7

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.9

11.0

10.7

10.9

Income and saving
Nominal GDP 5
Real disposable pers. income
Previous

5

Personal saving rate
Previous

3

3

5

 

Corporate profits7
Profit share of GNP 3
 

 

11.0

 

Net federal saving8
Net state & local saving

-219

-207

-230

-218

-312

-663

-470

-426

-455

-438

-419

-420

-221

-467

-433

-6

13

-13

-42

-64

-77

-72

-79

-79

-76

-70

-64

-12

-73

-72

8

 

 

Gross national saving rate3
Net national saving rate

13.8

13.8

13.2

12.6

11.8

11.4

10.3

10.8

10.8

11.0

11.2

11.3

12.6

10.8

11.3

1.7

1.7

1.2

.4

-.3

-.9

-2.1

-1.5

-1.5

-1.2

-1.0

-.7

.4

-1.5

-.7

3

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise indicated.  Return to table
2. Change, millions.  Return to table
3. Percent, annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  Return to table
4. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. (In previous Greenbooks, we expressed the GDP gap with the
opposite sign, so that a positive number indicated that actual output fell short of potential.) Annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  Return to table
5. Percent change, annual rate.  Return to table
6. Level, millions, annual values are annual averages.  Return to table
7. Percent change, annual rate, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.  Return to table
8. Billions of dollars, annual values are annual averages.  Return to table

Staff Projections of Federal Sector Accounts and Related Items
(Billions of dollars except as noted)

Fiscal year
Item
2006

a

2007a

2007

2008 2009

Q1 a

Q2 a

2008

Q3 a

Q4 a

Unified budget
1

2568 2550 2685

547

2655

2729 2920 3079

-248

-162

-370

Previous

-248

-162

-375

-408 -178

On-budget

-434

-343

-560

-576 -212

Off-budget

186

181

190

182

Borrowing

237

206

329

408

Cash decrease

-16

-23

30

-5

25

-19

28

-22

11

-10

1

52

75

45

50

6

Outlays

1

Surplus/deficit 1

Q2

2009

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Not seasonally adjusted
2407

Receipts

Q1 a

824

622

606

540

778

626

626

537

846

676

649

725

687

663

713

746

739

722

769

777

774

759

814

-394 -178

137

-41 -107 -206

39

-96 -142 -240

72

-83 -165

137

-42 -106 -206

35

-99 -133 -261

68

-82 -161

53

-48 -166 -237

-50 -106 -211 -257

-19

-89 -234

34

85

7

59

31

89

11

69

17

91

6

68

152 -110

106

89

200

-65

105

123

235

-50

18

11

1

0

16

10

-47

97

155

-20

-10

15

-8

-15

-1

-5

26

-9

4

-5

-5

-5

-5

25

75

57

46

45

45

30

20

40

50

35

Means of financing

Other 2
Cash operating balance, end of period
NIPA federal sector

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

Receipts

2437

2635 2603 2774 2620 2670 2689 2715 2698 2370 2630 2703 2755 2788 2852 2890

Expenditures

2685

2845 3019 3209 2838 2877 2920 2933 3010 3032 3100 3129 3210 3226 3271 3310

Consumption expenditures

798

843

906

967

830

850

868

877

901

917

929

942

964

976

987

997

Defense

533

570

619

668

556

574

590

596

614

628

638

649

665

674

682

690

Nondefense

266

273

287

299

274

276

278

281

287

289

291

293

299

301

304

307

Other spending

1887

2001 2113 2242 2008 2027 2052 2056 2109 2115 2171 2187 2246 2250 2284 2313

-248

-209

-416

117

121

125

-262

-221

-426

-450 -227 -216 -242 -227 -321 -675 -483 -440 -470 -454 -435 -436

-278

-233

-412

-369 -233 -223 -259 -233 -315 -658 -442 -376 -390 -367 -343 -346

-0.5

-0.4

1.2

-0.4

0.1

-0.1

0.2

-0.2

0.6

2.4

-1.6

-0.5

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.0

0.3

0.2

0.6

-0.0

-0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.7

-0.5

-0.1

0.1

-0.0

-0.0

0.3

0.2

0.6

-0.0

-0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.7

-0.5

-0.2

0.1

-0.0

-0.0

Current account surplus
Gross investment
Gross saving less gross investment 3

-434 -219 -207 -230 -218 -312 -663 -470 -426 -455 -438 -419 -420
135

117

120

123

121

123

127

129

132

135

137

139

140

Fiscal indicators 4
High-employment (HEB) surplus/deficit
Change in HEB, percent of potential GDP
Fiscal impetus (FI), percent of GDP
Previous

1. Budget receipts, outlays, and surplus/deficit include corresponding social security (OASDI) categories. The OASDI surplus and the Postal Service surplus are excluded from the on-budget

surplus and shown separately as off-budget, as classified under current law.  Return to table
2. Other means of financing are checks issued less checks paid, accrued items, and changes in other financial assets and liabilities.  Return to table
3. Gross saving is the current account surplus plus consumption of fixed capital of the general government as well as government enterprises.  Return to table
4. HEB is gross saving less gross investment (NIPA) of the federal government in current dollars, with cyclically sensitive receipts and outlays adjusted to the staff's measure of potential output
and the NAIRU. Quarterly figures for change in HEB and FI are not at annual rates. The sign on Change in HEB, as a percent of nominal potential GDP, is reversed. FI is the weighted difference
of discretionary changes in federal spending and taxes in chained (2000) dollars, scaled by real GDP. The annual FI estimates are on a calendar year basis. Also, for FI and the change in HEB,
positive values indicate aggregate demand stimulus.  Return to table
a--Actual  Return to table

Change in Debt of the Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors
(Percent)

Period 1

Households
Total

Business State and local governments Federal government Memo: Nominal GDP
Total

Home mortgages Consumer credit

Year
2002

7.3

10.8

13.3

5.7

2.4

11.0

7.6

3.6

2003

8.1

11.5

14.2

5.2

2.5

8.3

10.9

5.9

2004

8.8

11.2

13.7

5.5

5.8

7.4

9.0

6.5

2005

9.3

11.2

13.1

4.3

7.8

10.2

7.0

6.3

 

 

 

2006

8.8

10.2

11.2

4.5

9.8

8.2

3.9

5.4

2007

8.2

6.8

6.8

5.7

11.7

9.2

4.9

5.1

2008

4.7

2.8

2.5

3.6

5.7

6.5

6.9

3.1

2009

4.5

2.5

2.1

3.0

5.1

6.4

8.0

4.6

2007: 1

8.0

7.0

7.9

4.8

9.4

11.2

6.7

4.9

2

7.2

7.2

7.4

5.6

11.1

10.3

-1.4

6.6

3

9.1

6.4

5.3

8.1

13.7

6.5

8.8

6.0

4

7.5

6.1

5.8

3.9

10.8

7.7

5.1

3.0

2008: 1

6.1

3.4

3.0

5.1

8.1

6.4

9.5

3.9

Quarter

2

3.8

2.7

2.4

2.9

5.5

7.1

2.1

1.9

3

4.4

2.7

2.2

3.4

4.5

6.1

8.2

3.9

4

4.1

2.5

2.1

2.9

4.3

6.0

7.3

2.7

2009: 1

5.0

2.4

2.0

2.8

4.5

6.2

12.0

3.8

2

3.6

2.4

2.0

2.9

4.9

6.1

3.2

5.1

3

4.5

2.5

2.0

3.1

5.3

6.4

7.1

4.9

4

4.8

2.6

2.2

3.3

5.2

6.3

9.0

4.8

Note. Quarterly data are at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
1. Data after 2008:Q1 are staff projections. Changes are measured from end of the preceding period to end of period indicated except for annual nominal GDP growth, which is calculated from
Q4 to Q4.  Return to table
2.6.3 FOF

Flow of Funds Projections: Highlights
(Billions of dollars at seasonally adjusted annual rates except as noted)

2007
Category

2006

2007

2008

2008

2009

2009
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Domestic nonfinancial sectors
Net funds raised
Total

1723.5 1533.6 1072.1 1249.1 1908.1

1191.8 1346.1

803.0 1076.2 1062.9 1387.3

955.9 1255.9 1397.2

Net equity issuance

-614.1 -835.7 -397.6 -236.0 -831.2 -1124.8 -562.2 -416.0 -336.0 -276.0 -236.0 -236.0 -236.0 -236.0

Net debt issuance

2337.6 2369.3 1469.6 1485.1 2739.3

2316.6 1908.3 1219.0 1412.2 1338.9 1623.3 1191.9 1491.9 1633.2

Borrowing indicators
Debt (percent of GDP)1

210.2

217.4

223.1

224.5

217.3

220.2

221.8

223.5

223.7

224.5

225.0

224.6

224.2

224.1

17.7

17.1

10.2

10.0

19.6

16.5

13.4

8.5

9.8

9.2

11.1

8.0

9.9

10.8

1196.9

883.6

392.3

353.9

856.2

829.9

464.3

379.5

373.6

351.8

340.8

339.3

355.1

380.6

Home mortgages

990.2

668.8

259.6

223.1

547.1

604.9

320.9

255.0

236.1

226.6

217.2

212.5

221.9

240.8

Consumer credit

104.4

138.4

91.8

80.3

202.1

98.5

129.4

74.4

87.9

75.6

73.5

76.7

82.6

88.6

Debt/DPI (percent) 3

128.3

131.6

130.7

129.8

132.0

132.5

132.3

128.3

130.9

131.6

130.4

130.0

129.7

129.1

186.6

253.7

233.7

317.9

271.4

302.6

283.4

211.4

175.5

264.5

323.3

304.1

306.8

337.4

Borrowing (percent of GDP)
Households
Net borrowing 2

Business
Financing gap 4
Net equity issuance
Credit market borrowing

-614.1 -835.7 -397.6 -236.0 -831.2 -1124.8 -562.2 -416.0 -336.0 -276.0 -236.0 -236.0 -236.0 -236.0
806.1 1063.5

578.5

541.7 1309.6

1064.0

815.7

571.8

469.5

457.1

479.6

526.1

581.2

580.0

Net borrowing

151.2

185.2

143.3

149.5

Current surplus 5

138.5

164.8

139.5

158.8

137.5

137.5

145.5

145.5

153.5

153.5

243.8

223.7

131.2

140.6

229.2

200.6

133.9

127.6

134.2

129.2

131.1

135.5

143.9

151.9

Net borrowing

183.4

237.1

362.8

439.8

435.0

257.8

488.8

108.9

431.6

392.4

657.3

180.9

402.0

519.0

Net borrowing (n.s.a.)

183.4

237.1

362.8

439.8

105.7

89.4

200.2

-65.4

104.9

123.1

235.0

-47.3

97.5

154.7

Unified deficit (n.s.a.)

209.2

187.9

405.4

416.5

41.8

105.5

205.9

-38.6

95.7

142.4

240.1

-71.8

83.0

165.2

693.7

851.7

345.5

504.4 1141.1

1062.4

645.7

97.6

383.8

254.9

356.3

466.6

607.7

586.8

State and local governments

Federal government

Depository institutions
Funds supplied

Note. Data after 2008:Q1 are staff projections.
1. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by nominal GDP.  Return to table
2. Includes change in liabilities not shown in home mortgages and consumer credit.  Return to table
3. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by disposable personal income.  Return to table
4. For corporations, excess of capital expenditures over U.S. internal funds.  Return to table
5. NIPA state and local government saving plus consumption of fixed capital and net capital transfers.  Return to table
n.s.a. Not seasonally adjusted.  Return to table
2.6.4 FOF

† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014

Accessible Material
June 2008 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts†
International Developments
Summary of Staff Projections
(Percent change from end of previous period except as noted, s.a.a.r.)

2007

2008

Projection

Indicator

2008
H1

H2

Q1

2009
Q2

Foreign output

H2

4.6

April GB

3.6

2.9

2.2

2.6

3.4

4.6

2.7

1.9

2.2

3.6

4.2

4.8

4.8

3.8

2.7

3.0

April GB

3.7

3.0

Foreign CPI

4.2

4.7

3.3

2.8

2.5

Contribution to U.S. real GDP growth (percentage points)
U.S. net exports

.4

.8

2.1

.7

.5

.4

April GB

1.2
1.2

.3

2.3

1.0

.4

Note. Changes for years are measured as Q4/Q4; for half-years, Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2.

Box: Fuel Subsidies in Emerging Market Economies
Date of most recent
price increase

Increase in retail
gasoline price
(percent)

New price at pump*
(US dollars/gallon)

China

Nov. 07

9

2.74

India

June 08

11

4.52

Indonesia

May 08

29

2.45

Malaysia

June 08

41

3.13

Taiwan

May 08**

13

4.21

* Officially published data on gasoline prices after the latest price jumps are not generally available; the prices reported here are based on press reports and investment bank
commentaries.  Return to table
** Will go into effect on July 1.  Return to table

Staff Projections of Selected Trade Prices
(Percent change from end of previous period excepted as noted, s.a.a.r.)

2007

2008

Projection

Indicator

2008
H1

H2

Q1

2009
Q2

H2

Imports
Core goods
April GB
Oil (dollars per barrel)   
April GB
Exports

3.1

3.5

8.3

10.5

2.3

1.4

3.1

3.5

7.5

6.0

2.5

1.3

63.51

80.11

87.44

109.88

131.05

131.20

63.84

80.34

88.02

108.30

109.96

105.31

Core goods

6.7

12.4

8.6

3.7

1.3

6.7

April GB

6.0
6.0

11.5

7.5

2.4

1.0

Note. Prices for core exports exclude computers and semiconductors. Prices for core imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Both price series are on a NIPA chainweighted basis.
The price of imported oil for multiquarter periods is the price for the final quarter of the period. Imported oil includes both crude oil and refined products.

Staff Projections for Trade in Goods and Services
(Percent change from end of previous period, s.a.a.r.)

2007

2008

Projection

Indicator

2008
H1

H2

Q1

2009
Q2

Real exports      

H2

4.3

12.6

5.6

7.2

7.2

7.5

4.3

12.6

6.2

6.3

7.3

8.2

Real imports

.5

1.4

-.5

-6.7

1.0

2.8

April GB

.5

1.4

2.4

-8.2

-.3

3.9

April GB

Note. Changes for years are measured as Q4/Q4; for half-years, Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2.

Alternative Scenarios:
Higher Foreign Demand and Higher Oil Prices
(Percent change from previous period, annual rate, except as noted)

2008

2009

Indicator and simulation

2010
H1

H2

H1

2011-12

H2

U.S. real GDP
Baseline

1.4

0.7

2.0

2.8

3.1

3.0

Higher Foreign Demand

1.4

1.0

2.3

3.0

2.9

2.7

Higher Oil Prices

1.4

0.2

1.6

2.6

3.0

3.0

U.S. PCE prices excluding food and energy
Baseline

2.1

2.5

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.8

Higher Foreign Demand

2.1

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

1.8

Higher Oil Prices

2.1

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.4

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.5

2.8

3.3

4.2

U.S federal funds rate (percent)
Baseline
Higher Foreign Demand

2.1

2.0

2.6

3.1

3.8

4.5

Higher Oil Prices

2.1

2.3

2.8

3.1

3.4

4.0

U.S. trade balance (percent share of GDP)
Baseline

-5.1

-5.5

-5.1

-4.6

-4.4

-3.9

Higher Foreign Demand

-5.1

-5.3

-4.7

-4.0

-3.6

-3.3

Higher Oil Prices

-5.1

-6.5

-6.1

-5.5

-5.2

-4.4

Note. H1 is Q2/Q4; H2 is Q4/Q2. The federal funds rate is the average rate for the final quarter of the period.

Evolution of the Staff Forecast
Figure: Current Account Balance
A line chart shows three series, "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is Percent of GDP.

The 2007 series begins at about -7.5 percent on January 25, 2006, decreases to about -7.75 on May 3, 2006 and then generally increases to end at about -5.25
on June 18, 2008.

The 2008 series begins at about -7.0 percent on September 13, 2006, decreases to about -7.1 on October 18, 2006, and then generally increases to end at about
-5.25 on June 18, 2008.

The 2009 series begins at about -5.4 percent on September 12, 2007, generally increases to about -4.1 on April 23, 2008, and then decreases to end at about 4.6 on June 18, 2008.

Figure: Foreign Real GDP
A line chart shows three series, "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is Percent change, Q4/Q4.

The 2007 series begins at about 3.4 percent on January 25, 2006, stays about the same through May 3, 2006, decreases to about 3.2 by September 13, 2006 and
then generally increases to end at about 4.1 on June 18, 2008.

The 2008 series begins at about 3.25 percent on September 13, 2006, increases to about 3.5 by June 20, 2007, and generally decreases to about 2.25 on March
13 through April 23, 2008. It then increases and ends at about 2.6 on June 18, 2008.

The 2009 series begins at about 3.25 percent on September 12, 2007, generally increases to about 3.6 by April 23, 2008, and then decreases to end at about 3.4
on June 18, 2008.

Figure: Core Import Prices*
A line chart shows, three series, "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is Percent change,
Q4/Q4.

The 2007 series begins at about 1 percent on January 25, 2006, generally increases to about 3.5 by June 20, 2007, decreases to about 2.9 on September 12,
2007 and then increases to end at about 3.4 on June 18, 2008.

The 2008 series begins at about 1 percent on September 13, 2006, increases to about 1.5 by August 2, 2007, and generally decreases to about 1.1 on December
5, 2007. It then generally increases and ends at about 5.8 on June 18, 2008.

The 2009 series begins at about 1 percent on September 12, 2007, decreases to about 0.7 by October 24, 2008, and then increases to end at about 1.5 on June
18, 2008.
* Prices for merchandise imports excluding computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas.  Return to text

Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries
(Percent changes)

Projected
2007
Measure and country

2008
Q1

Q2

REAL GDP 1
Total Foreign

Q3

Q4

Q1

2009

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Quarterly changes at an annual rate
4.7

4.5

4.2

3.0

2.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.6 3.7

3.8

2.4

2.4

1.4

1.5 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.5

Canada

4.1

3.9

2.3

0.8

-0.3 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 2.4 2.5 2.7

Japan

4.5

-2.5

0.9

2.9

4.0 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7

United Kingdom

2.8

3.4

2.6

2.5

1.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.1

Euro Area 2

3.2

1.5

2.7

1.3

3.2 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.5

Germany

2.6

0.7

2.7

1.1

6.3 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.9

6.0

7.2

6.7

5.1

4.8 3.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.4

Advanced Foreign Economies
of which:

Emerging Market Economies

Asia
Korea
China
Latin America

8.6

9.3

7.7

5.6

7.7 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.4

4.0

7.1

6.0

6.4

3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.3

15.1 11.4

8.2 10.6 11.7 8.7 9.0 8.7 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.7

3.5

5.2

5.7

4.3

1.9 2.1 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.4

Mexico

2.7

4.8

5.0

3.3

2.1 1.2 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.2

Brazil

4.0

6.2

7.5

6.6

2.9 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3

CONSUMER PRICES3
Total Foreign
Advanced Foreign Economies

Four-quarter changes
2.3

2.5

3.0

3.6

4.1 4.5 4.6 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.7

1.5

1.6

1.5

2.2

2.2 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.9

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.4

1.8 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.0 2.0

of which:
Canada
Japan

0.5

1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5

United Kingdom 4

2.9

2.5

1.8

2.1

2.4 3.2 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.4

Euro Area 2

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.9

3.4 3.7 4.1 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5

Germany

1.9

2.0

2.2

3.1

3.1 3.3 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4

3.1

3.3

4.5

5.1

5.9 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.0 4.3 3.8 3.6

2.7

3.1

4.6

5.4

6.5 7.0 6.6 6.1 5.1 4.4 3.7 3.4

Korea

2.0

2.5

2.3

3.4

3.8 4.6 5.1 4.6 4.6 3.6 3.2 3.1

China

2.7

3.6

6.1

6.6

8.0 7.9 6.5 6.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.4

4.2

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.8

Mexico

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.9 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.3 3.6 3.4 3.3

Brazil

3.1

3.4

4.2

4.3

4.6 5.4 5.9 6.1 5.8 5.3 5.0 4.9

Emerging Market Economies
Asia

Latin America

-0.1

-0.1 -0.1

1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports.  Return to table
2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat.  Return to table
3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports.  Return to table
4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate.  Return to table

Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries
(Percent, Q4 to Q4)

Projected
Measure and country

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009

REAL GDP 1
Total Foreign
Advanced Foreign Economies

0.4

3.0

2.9

3.8

4.0

4.0

4.1

2.6

3.4

0.9

2.5

1.8

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.5

1.2

2.1

of which:
Canada

1.3

3.5

1.5

3.7

3.0

2.2

2.8

0.8

2.2

-1.7

2.0

2.4

1.1

2.9

2.5

1.4

1.7

1.6

United Kingdom

2.1

2.3

3.4

2.6

1.8

3.2

2.8

1.0

1.7

Euro Area 2

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.7

2.0

3.3

2.1

1.5

2.1

Japan

Germany
Emerging Market Economies
Asia

1.1

-0.0

0.1

0.1

1.6

3.9

1.7

2.2

2.3

-0.3

3.9

4.5

5.4

5.8

5.7

6.3

4.4

5.1

1.0

6.4

6.9

6.0

7.6

7.0

7.8

6.0

6.3

Korea

4.7

7.7

4.1

2.9

5.6

4.2

5.9

3.6

4.1

China

7.2

8.6

10.3

9.8

10.2

10.6

11.3

9.5

9.6

-1.3

1.6

1.8

4.7

3.9

4.5

4.7

2.6

3.9

Latin America
Mexico

-1.3

2.0

1.4

4.1

3.5

3.7

4.0

2.2

3.6

Brazil

-0.6

4.9

1.0

4.5

3.4

4.9

6.1

3.8

4.2

CONSUMER PRICES3
Total Foreign

1.7

Advanced Foreign Economies

2.5

2.1

2.8

2.3

2.1

3.6

4.3

2.7

0.9

2.1

1.3

1.8

1.6

1.4

2.2

2.7

1.9

of which:
Canada

1.1

United Kingdom 4

3.8

1.7

2.3

2.3

1.3

2.4

2.6

2.0

-1.1

Japan

-0.5

-0.3

0.5

-1.0

0.3

0.5

1.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1.3

1.4

2.1

2.7

2.1

4.1

2.4

2

2.1

2.3

2.0

2.3

2.3

1.8

2.9

3.4

2.5

Germany

1.5

1.2

1.1

2.1

2.2

1.3

3.1

3.1

2.4

Euro Area

Emerging Market Economies

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.9

3.0

2.9

5.1

5.9

3.6

1.2

0.8

2.3

3.1

2.6

2.3

5.4

6.1

3.4

Korea

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.4

2.5

2.1

3.4

4.6

3.1

China

-0.1

-0.6

2.7

3.2

1.4

2.1

6.6

6.0

3.4

5.3

6.4

4.9

5.7

3.8

4.1

4.3

5.1

3.8

Mexico

5.1

5.2

3.9

5.3

3.1

4.1

3.8

4.5

3.3

Brazil

7.5

10.7

11.5

7.2

6.1

3.2

4.3

6.1

4.9

Asia

Latin America

1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports.  Return to table
2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat.  Return to table
3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports.  Return to table
4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate.  Return to table

Outlook for U.S. International Transactions
Projected
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007
2008

2009

NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth, Q4/Q4
Net Goods & Services

-0.2

-0.9

-0.1

-0.9

-0.1

0.4

0.8

1.1

0.5

Exports of G&S

-1.3

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.0

0.9

1.0

Imports of G&S

1.1

-1.3

-0.7

-1.7

-0.8

-0.6

-0.2

0.3

-0.5

Percentage change, Q4/Q4
Exports of G&S

-11.9

3.8

5.8

7.4

7.0

9.3

8.4

6.8

7.5

-8.9

10.2

3.0

8.3

4.1

8.3

7.0

6.6

6.2

Computers

-23.5

-1.1

11.3

5.8

14.0

8.2

-5.9

9.1

9.9

Semiconductors

-34.6

10.1

38.3

-6.0

17.5

2.4

27.6

6.2

11.1

Core Goods 1

-10.2

0.6

4.9

8.0

7.5

10.2

8.8

6.8

7.8

Services

 

 

Imports of G&S
Services
Oil
Natural Gas

-7.6

9.7

4.8

11.5

5.1

3.7

1.0

-1.4

2.8

-5.9

8.8

2.2

9.3

1.4

6.1

2.0

2.5

3.4

3.7

3.8

1.2

10.8

1.2

-9.0

1.3

-4.2

-0.5

-6.5

19.5

1.3

4.9

11.3

-13.4

-18.0

11.6

-1.7

Computers

-13.6

13.2

17.0

23.2

12.2

13.6

6.8

12.3

15.6

Semiconductors

-51.1

11.0

-0.1

9.8

7.6

-0.5

4.1

4.7

5.0

-6.5

10.0

5.2

11.4

6.0

5.9

0.3

-2.8

3.2

Core Goods 2

Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars
Net Goods & Services
Exports of G&S

-399.1 -471.3 -518.9 -593.8 -618.0 -624.5 -555.6 -419.6 -328.6
1036.7 1013.3 1026.1 1126.1 1203.4 1304.1 1409.9 1523.5 1635.2

Imports of G&S

1435.8 1484.6 1545.0 1719.9 1821.5 1928.6 1965.4 1943.1 1963.8
Billions of dollars

US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -384.7 -461.3 -523.4 -625.0 -729.0 -788.1 -731.2 -750.1 -679.1
Current Acct as Percent of GDP

-3.8

-4.4

-4.8

-5.3

-5.9

-6.0

-5.3

-5.2

-4.6

 

 

Net Goods & Services (BOP)

-365.1 -423.7 -496.9 -607.7 -711.6 -753.3 -700.3 -758.7 -726.4

 

 

Investment Income, Net

36.9

33.0

51.0

73.4

78.8

63.8

88.8

128.1

169.8

Direct, Net

115.9

102.4

112.7

150.9

173.2

184.1

233.9

291.7

329.9

Portfolio, Net

-79.0

-69.4

-61.7

-77.5

-94.4 -120.3 -145.1 -163.6 -160.1

-56.5

-70.5

-77.5

-90.6

-96.2

 

 

Other Income & Transfers,Net

-98.6 -119.7 -119.6 -122.5

1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors.  Return to table
2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors.  Return to table

Outlook for U.S. International Transactions
2004
Q1

Q2

2005
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2006
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth
Net Goods & Services

-0.8

-1.5

-0.4

-1.1

0.3

0.8

-0.1

-1.4

0.1

0.5

-0.2

1.2

Exports of G&S

0.9

0.6

0.3

1.0

0.6

0.9

0.2

1.1

1.2

0.6

0.6

1.5

Imports of G&S

-1.7

-2.1

-0.7

-2.0

-0.3

-0.1

-0.3

-2.5

-1.1

-0.1

-0.9

-0.3

10.6

11.5

5.7

5.7

14.3

Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r.
Exports of G&S

10.0

6.5

3.1

10.0

6.0

9.5

2.1

Services

16.2

5.1

-3.4

16.8

6.5

0.9

2.6

6.3

2.9

3.9

2.0

26.0

Computers

-7.0

1.7

16.7

13.4

17.4

24.9

12.8

2.0

14.6

13.0

-3.9

9.9

Semiconductors

16.7

-13.4

-20.9

-2.4

-1.7

9.3

23.2

43.8

25.3

14.5

-11.5

-13.5

Core Goods 1

7.8

9.2

7.7

7.4

5.6

13.1

0.2

11.6

14.9

5.7

9.2

11.0

Imports of G&S

12.3

15.2

4.8

13.8

2.1

0.8

2.1

16.2

6.9

0.9

5.4

1.6

Services

16.5

8.9

1.8

10.5

-3.5

-0.5

0.0

10.3

9.5

-0.1

1.3

14.2

Oil

39.2

-26.3

-7.1

58.3

5.4

-26.2

-14.2

57.1

-3.6

-26.1

3.3

-6.9

Natural Gas

33.4

43.1

48.5

-57.3

53.9

-4.0

108.6

-50.2

-49.4

123.0

24.1

-59.8

Computers

20.7

30.1

25.6

17.0

5.7

9.8

17.0

16.6

27.0

16.9

16.0

-3.2

Semiconductors

43.0

18.5

3.9

-17.4

-9.5

7.7

15.7

18.8

0.1

-1.5

20.9

-17.9

6.5

23.0

5.4

11.6

2.3

6.1

2.8

13.1

9.7

5.4

5.5

3.1

 

 

Core Goods 2

Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r.
Net Goods & Services

-549.1 -591.1 -602.7 -632.3 -624.4 -601.0 -604.1 -642.6 -640.1 -626.6 -633.8 -597.3

Exports of G&S

1101.8 1119.4 1128.0 1155.3 1172.4 1199.3 1205.6 1236.4 1270.6 1288.4 1306.6 1350.9

Imports of G&S

1650.9 1710.5 1730.8 1787.7 1796.8 1800.3 1809.7 1879.0 1910.7 1915.0 1940.4 1948.2
Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r.

US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -545.8 -622.7 -617.9 -713.6 -696.2 -711.3 -675.6 -832.9 -783.8 -799.6 -843.6 -725.4
Current Account as % of GDP
 

-5.4

-5.2

-6.0

-5.7

-5.8

-5.4

-6.6

-6.0

-6.1

-6.4

-5.4
 

Net Goods & Services (BOP)
 

-4.8

-540.6 -599.1 -621.5 -669.7 -664.0 -682.9 -721.4 -778.0 -756.3 -767.4 -789.9 -699.5
 

Investment Income, Net

92.7

68.2

78.7

53.8

88.6

77.8

88.7

59.9

65.2

70.7

51.7

67.7

Direct, Net

157.1

139.0

153.7

153.6

170.2

168.5

187.8

166.3

177.2

189.2

171.9

198.2

Portfolio, Net

-64.3

-70.9

-75.0

-99.8

-81.6

-90.7

-99.0 -106.5 -112.0 -118.5 -120.3 -130.5

 

 

Other Inc. & Transfers, Net

-97.9

-91.8

-75.1

-97.7 -120.9 -106.2

-42.9 -114.8

-92.6 -103.0 -105.4

-93.6

1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors.  Return to table
2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors.  Return to table

Outlook for U.S. International Transactions
Projected
2007
2008
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2009
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth
Net Goods & Services

-0.5

1.3

1.4

1.0

0.8

2.1

0.7

0.8

0.3

1.4

0.7

-0.4

Exports of G&S

0.1

0.9

2.1

0.8

0.7

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Imports of G&S

-0.6

0.5

-0.7

0.2

0.1

1.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.7

0.4

-0.4

-1.5

Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r.
Exports of G&S

1.1

7.5

19.1

6.5

5.6

7.2

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.5

7.5

7.6

1.6

9.6

4.0

13.2

8.8

5.5

6.2

6.1

6.1

6.4

6.2

6.2

Computers

-8.2

-17.8

19.9

-13.3

-0.8

18.5

9.9

9.9

9.9

9.9

9.9

9.9

Semiconductors

25.4

23.2

6.3

61.4

7.5

-4.0

11.1

11.1

11.1

11.1

11.1

11.1

Core Goods 1

0.3

7.1

27.4

2.5

4.3

8.1

7.2

7.5

7.6

7.8

7.8

8.0

Imports of G&S

3.9

-2.7

4.4

-1.4

-0.5

-6.7

1.2

0.7

3.6

-2.1

1.9

8.1

2.3

-1.7

1.7

5.5

7.1

3.4

4.0

-4.2

1.9

3.9

4.0

4.1

29.6

-22.3

-18.2

28.1

16.9

-36.8

0.7

13.5

11.2

-19.9

-10.0

22.2

8.3

258.5

-16.7

-86.0

-37.9

202.3

64.6

-49.8

11.3

8.0

30.7

-40.5

41.1

-13.1

-3.8

10.3

6.0

12.1

15.7

15.7

15.7

15.7

15.6

15.6

4.0

3.3

3.4

5.5

-3.2

12.5

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

-2.3

-0.5

11.8

-6.7

-6.5

-1.2

-1.5

-1.7

0.1

2.9

4.6

5.2

Services

 

 

Services
Oil
Natural Gas
Computers
Semiconductors
Core Goods 2

Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r.
Net Goods & Services

-612.1 -573.9 -533.1 -503.2 -480.5 -420.6 -400.5 -376.8 -366.3 -327.0 -306.6 -314.6

Exports of G&S

1354.7 1379.5 1441.2 1464.1 1484.2 1510.1 1536.2 1563.3 1591.0 1620.1 1649.6 1680.0

Imports of G&S

1966.8 1953.4 1974.3 1967.3 1964.8 1930.8 1936.8 1940.1 1957.3 1947.2 1956.3 1994.6
Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r.

US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -787.7 -776.4 -691.8 -669.0 -705.5 -734.4 -787.8 -772.9 -762.1 -677.6 -636.0 -640.6
Current Account as % of GDP

-5.8

-5.6

-5.0

-4.8

-5.0

-5.1

-5.5

-5.3

-5.2

-4.6

-4.2

 

-4.2
 

Net Goods & Services (BOP)

-718.2 -715.3 -672.5 -695.1 -699.7 -748.0 -798.7 -788.3 -782.8 -722.2 -693.0 -707.6

 

 

Investment Income, Net
Direct, Net
Portfolio, Net

57.8

45.8

98.9

152.6

126.3

119.5

127.4

139.1

151.3

164.4

176.8

186.8

201.1

196.2

238.8

299.3

267.4

282.8

302.3

314.3

322.2

328.1

332.1

337.2

-143.2 -150.4 -139.9 -146.7 -141.1 -163.3 -174.9 -175.1 -170.9 -163.7 -155.3 -150.4

 

 

Other Inc. & Transfers, Net

-127.4 -106.9 -118.3 -126.4 -132.1 -106.0 -116.5 -123.7 -130.6 -119.8 -119.8 -119.8

1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors.  Return to table

2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors.  Return to table

† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014

Accessible Material
June 2008 Greenbook Part 2 Tables and Charts†
Domestic Nonfinancial Developments
Changes in Employment
(Thousands of employees; seasonally adjusted)

2007

2008

2007
Measure and sector

Q3

Q4

Q1

Mar.

Average monthly change
Nonfarm payroll employment
       (establishment survey)  

Apr.

May

Monthly change

Construction
Residential

-82

-88

-28

-49

45

-97

-103

-40

-66

3

2

4

4

6

1

3

-23

-17

-43

-46

-49

-26

-20

-8

-31

-23

-31

-30

-19

Ex. motor vehicles

80

62

-15

Manufacturing

71

-22

Natural resources and mining

91
71

Private

-22

-41

-41

-39

-52

-34

-20

-18

-39

-30

-28

-27

-25

Nonresidential

1

-5

-2

-11

-12

-25

-8

Wholesale trade

9

9

6

-6

-3

-10

-4

6

1

0

-29

-27

-39

-27

Financial activities

Retail trade

-9

-8

-14

-7

0

1

-1

Professional and business services

26

22

44

-39

-59

32

-39

-7

-13

4

-24

-31

-12

-30

76

76

71

66

65

79

75

21

8

35

15

15

12

17

22

58

-16

-81

-24

362

-285

1.3

1.1

1.0

-1.1

.3

-.4

-.1

33.8

33.8

33.8

33.7

33.8

33.7

33.7

41.2

41.4

41.2

41.1

41.2

41.0

41.0

Temporary help services
Nonbusiness services 1
Total government
Total employment (household survey)
Memo:
Aggregate hours of private production
       workers (percent change) 2
Average workweek (hours)

3

Manufacturing (hours)

1. Nonbusiness services comprises education and health, leisure and hospitality, and "other."  Return to table
2. Establishment survey. Annual data are percent changes from Q4 to Q4. Quarterly data are percent changes from preceding quarter at an annual rate. Monthly data are percent changes from
preceding month.  Return to table
3. Establishment survey.  Return to table

Figure: Changes in Private
Payroll Employment
3-month moving average

Period

Thousands

January 1999

221.33

February 1999

257.67

March 1999

182.67

April 1999

246.33

May 1999

203.33

June 1999

250.33

July 1999

222.67

August 1999

201.00

September 1999

184.33

October 1999

228.00

November 1999

261.00

December 1999

286.67

January 2000

241.00

February 2000

187.00

March 2000

216.33

April 2000

216.00

May 2000

145.00

June 2000

103.67

July 2000

92.33

August 2000

143.33

September 2000

146.67

October 2000

79.33

November 2000

139.67

December 2000

96.33

January 2001

87.00

February 2001

12.33

March 2001

-42.00

April 2001

-135.67

May 2001

-159.33

June 2001

-215.00

July 2001

-163.33

August 2001

-200.67

September 2001

-211.33

October 2001

-273.00

November 2001

-323.00

December 2001

-302.67

January 2002

-234.67

February 2002

-173.67

March 2002

-126.33

April 2002

-107.33

May 2002

-80.00

June 2002

-55.00

July 2002

-53.33

August 2002

-47.67

September 2002

-55.00

October 2002

13.33

November 2002

29.00

December 2002

-21.33

January 2003

-44.00

February 2003

-91.33

March 2003

-103.00

April 2003

-129.33

May 2003

-70.00

June 2003

-17.67

July 2003

-7.00

August 2003
September 2003

-2.67
62.67

October 2003

113.00

November 2003

115.00

December 2003

101.00

January 2004

103.00

February 2004

95.67

March 2004

155.00

April 2004

184.67

May 2004

277.00

June 2004

217.00

July 2004

152.33

August 2004

81.33

September 2004

101.33

October 2004

192.00

November 2004

177.67

December 2004

164.33

January 2005

88.67

February 2005

145.00

March 2005

143.00

April 2005

213.33

May 2005

199.00

June 2005

250.00

July 2005

239.00

August 2005

251.33

September 2005

200.67

October 2005

150.67

November 2005

190.67

December 2005

192.67

January 2006

240.67

February 2006

215.67

March 2006

250.67

April 2006

206.33

May 2006

129.00

June 2006

82.67

July 2006

99.33

August 2006

151.67

September 2006

158.67

October 2006

119.67

November 2006

119.00

December 2006

142.33

January 2007

155.33

February 2007

98.67

March 2007

89.33

April 2007

63.33

May 2007

108.67

June 2007

85.33

July 2007

105.67

August 2007

70.67

September 2007

62.33

October 2007

67.67

November 2007

71.67

December 2007

45.00

January 2008

-16.33

February 2008

-67.33

March 2008

-97.00

April 2008

-84.00

May 2008

-69.67

Figure: Aggregate Hours and Workweek of Production or
Nonsupervisory Workers
Period

Aggregate hours (2002 = 100) Workweek (Hours)

January 1999

100.4

34.4

February 1999

100.8

34.4

March 1999

100.5

34.3

April 1999

101.1

34.4

May 1999

101.3

34.4

June 1999

101.5

34.4

July 1999

101.7

34.4

August 1999

101.9

34.4

September 1999

102.0

34.4

October 1999

102.4

34.4

November 1999

102.6

34.4

December 1999

102.9

34.4

January 2000

103.1

34.4

February 2000

103.2

34.4

March 2000

103.2

34.3

April 2000

103.7

34.4

May 2000

103.3

34.3

June 2000

103.5

34.3

July 2000

103.7

34.3

August 2000

103.4

34.2

September 2000

103.6

34.2

October 2000

103.9

34.3

November 2000

103.7

34.2

December 2000

103.2

34.0

January 2001

103.7

34.2

February 2001

103.0

34.0

March 2001

103.3

34.1

April 2001

102.7

34.0

May 2001

102.6

34.0

June 2001

102.4

34.0

July 2001

102.3

34.0

August 2001

101.8

33.9

September 2001

101.2

33.8

October 2001

100.6

33.7

November 2001

100.5

33.8

December 2001

100.7

33.9

January 2002

100.3

33.8

February 2002

100.3

33.8

March 2002

100.5

33.9

April 2002

100.4

33.9

May 2002

100.2

33.9

June 2002

100.1

33.9

July 2002

99.6

33.8

August 2002

99.9

33.9

September 2002

99.8

33.9

October 2002

99.6

33.8

November 2002

99.6

33.8

December 2002

99.3

33.8

January 2003

99.4

33.8

February 2003

98.6

33.6

March 2003

98.9

33.8

April 2003

98.3

33.6

May 2003

98.5

33.7

June 2003

98.2

33.6

July 2003

98.2

33.6

August 2003

98.5

33.7

September 2003

98.4

33.6

October 2003

98.8

33.7

November 2003

98.8

33.7

December 2003

98.6

33.6

January 2004

99.3

33.8

February 2004

99.3

33.8

March 2004

99.3

33.7

April 2004

99.6

33.7

May 2004

100.2

33.8

June 2004

99.8

33.6

July 2004

100.2

33.7

August 2004

100.4

33.7

September 2004

100.9

33.8

October 2004

101.0

33.7

November 2004

100.7

33.6

December 2004

101.5

33.8

January 2005

101.3

33.7

February 2005

101.9

33.8

March 2005

101.7

33.7

April 2005

102.4

33.8

May 2005

102.2

33.7

June 2005

102.6

33.7

July 2005

102.8

33.7

August 2005

103.0

33.7

September 2005

103.5

33.8

October 2005

103.6

33.8

November 2005

104.0

33.8

December 2005

104.2

33.8

January 2006

104.8

33.9

February 2006

104.8

33.8

March 2006

105.1

33.8

April 2006

105.6

33.9

May 2006

105.4

33.8

June 2006

105.8

33.9

July 2006

106.0

33.9

August 2006

106.2

33.9

September 2006

105.9

33.8

October 2006

106.3

33.9

November 2006

106.2

33.8

December 2006

106.7

33.9

January 2007

106.5

33.8

February 2007

106.2

33.7

March 2007

107.1

33.9

April 2007

106.8

33.8

May 2007

107.1

33.8

June 2007

107.6

33.9

July 2007

107.4

33.8

August 2007

107.4

33.8

September 2007

107.6

33.8

October 2007

107.7

33.8

November 2007

107.7

33.8

December 2007

107.8

33.8

January 2008

107.4

33.7

February 2008

107.3

33.7

March 2008

107.6

33.8

April 2008

107.2

33.7

May 2008

107.1

33.7

Selected Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates
(Percent; seasonally adjusted)

2007
Rate and group

2008

2007
Q3

Q4

Q1

Mar.

Apr.

May

Civilian unemployment rate
Total
Teenagers

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.1

5.0

5.5

15.7

15.8

16.4

16.8

15.8

15.4

18.7

20-24 years old

8.2

8.6

8.6

9.0

9.3

8.9

10.4

Men, 25 years and older

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.8

4.0

4.0

4.2

Women, 25 years and older

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.1

3.9

4.1

66.0

66.0

66.0

66.0

66.0

66.0

66.2

Teenagers

41.3

40.7

41.0

40.3

39.8

41.1

42.6

20-24 years old

74.4

74.4

74.0

73.9

73.9

74.2

75.0

Men, 25 years and older

75.6

75.6

75.5

75.5

75.4

75.2

75.2

Women, 25 years and older

59.7

59.8

59.7

59.9

60.1

60.0

60.0

Labor force participation rate
Total

Figure: Labor Force Participation Rate and
Unemployment Rate
Percent

Period

Unemployment rate Participation rate

January 2000

4.0

67.294

February 2000

4.1

67.331

March 2000

4.0

67.258

April 2000

3.8

67.330

May 2000

4.0

67.088

June 2000

4.0

67.112

July 2000

4.0

66.899

August 2000

4.1

66.934

September 2000

3.9

66.859

October 2000

3.9

66.832

November 2000

3.9

66.949

December 2000

3.9

67.021

January 2001

4.2

67.231

February 2001

4.2

67.115

March 2001

4.3

67.158

April 2001

4.4

66.924

May 2001

4.3

66.743

June 2001

4.5

66.693

July 2001

4.6

66.760

August 2001

4.9

66.514

September 2001

5.0

66.765

October 2001

5.3

66.736

November 2001

5.5

66.742

December 2001

5.7

66.711

January 2002

5.7

66.457

February 2002

5.7

66.764

March 2002

5.7

66.635

April 2002

5.9

66.692

May 2002

5.8

66.731

June 2002

5.8

66.607

July 2002

5.8

66.536

August 2002

5.7

66.559

September 2002

5.7

66.734

October 2002

5.7

66.554

November 2002

5.9

66.366

December 2002

6.0

66.319

January 2003

5.8

66.366

February 2003

5.9

66.375

March 2003

5.9

66.278

April 2003

6.0

66.416

May 2003

6.1

66.359

June 2003

6.3

66.537

July 2003

6.2

66.207

August 2003

6.1

66.113

September 2003

6.1

66.070

October 2003

6.0

66.077

November 2003

5.8

66.133

December 2003

5.7

65.943

January 2004

5.7

66.092

February 2004

5.6

65.971

March 2004

5.8

66.010

April 2004

5.6

65.919

May 2004

5.6

65.955

June 2004

5.6

66.065

July 2004

5.5

66.111

August 2004

5.4

65.981

September 2004

5.4

65.840

October 2004

5.5

65.933

November 2004

5.4

66.027

December 2004

5.4

65.922

January 2005

5.2

65.817

February 2005

5.4

65.903

March 2005

5.2

65.840

April 2005

5.1

66.054

May 2005

5.1

66.148

June 2005

5.0

66.063

July 2005

5.0

66.096

August 2005

4.9

66.171

September 2005

5.1

66.178

October 2005

5.0

66.118

November 2005

5.0

66.064

December 2005

4.8

65.974

January 2006

4.7

65.967

February 2006

4.7

66.080

March 2006

4.7

66.101

April 2006

4.7

66.128

May 2006

4.7

66.159

June 2006

4.6

66.203

July 2006

4.7

66.170

August 2006

4.7

66.239

September 2006

4.5

66.141

October 2006

4.4

66.237

November 2006

4.5

66.290

December 2006

4.4

66.364

January 2007

4.6

66.316

February 2007

4.5

66.162

March 2007

4.4

66.174

April 2007

4.5

65.963

May 2007

4.5

66.000

June 2007

4.6

66.067

July 2007

4.7

66.039

August 2007

4.7

65.839

September 2007

4.7

66.035

October 2007

4.8

65.877

November 2007

4.7

66.038

December 2007

5.0

65.993

January 2008

4.9

66.128

February 2008

4.8

65.880

March 2008

5.1

66.003

April 2008

5.0

66.020

May 2008

5.5

66.209

Figure: Persons Working Part Time for Economic
Reasons
Period

Percent of household employment

January 2000

2.274

February 2000

2.239

March 2000

2.280

April 2000

2.250

May 2000

2.319

June 2000

2.280

July 2000

2.235

August 2000

2.284

September 2000

2.280

October 2000

2.230

November 2000

2.465

December 2000

2.305

January 2001

2.350

February 2001

2.336

March 2001

2.303

April 2001

2.335

May 2001

2.433

June 2001

2.703

July 2001

2.528

August 2001

2.452

September 2001

3.038

October 2001

3.172

November 2001

3.087

December 2001

3.189

January 2002

2.954

February 2002

3.059

March 2002

2.956

April 2002

3.037

May 2002

2.920

June 2002

2.898

July 2002

2.950

August 2002

3.058

September 2002

3.076

October 2002

3.090

November 2002

3.124

December 2002

3.118

January 2003

3.262

February 2003

3.432

March 2003

3.309

April 2003

3.419

May 2003

3.238

June 2003

3.248

July 2003

3.318

August 2003

3.151

September 2003

3.455

October 2003

3.406

November 2003

3.447

December 2003

3.376

January 2004

3.333

February 2004

3.219

March 2004

3.351

April 2004

3.246

May 2004

3.258

June 2004

3.136

July 2004

3.116

August 2004

3.086

September 2004

3.128

October 2004

3.372

November 2004

3.157

December 2004

3.105

January 2005

3.065

February 2005

2.993

March 2005

3.086

April 2005

2.982

May 2005

3.001

June 2005

3.071

July 2005

3.048

August 2005

3.074

September 2005

3.179

October 2005

2.940

November 2005

2.898

December 2005

2.819

January 2006

2.828

February 2006

2.881

March 2006

2.715

April 2006

2.683

May 2006

2.787

June 2006

2.899

July 2006

2.878

August 2006

2.806

September 2006

2.719

October 2006

2.973

November 2006

2.811

December 2006

2.836

January 2007

2.839

February 2007

2.831

March 2007

2.878

April 2007

2.952

May 2007

3.009

June 2007

2.882

July 2007

2.916

August 2007

3.064

September 2007

3.006

October 2007

2.946

November 2007

3.037

December 2007

3.130

January 2008

3.198

February 2008

3.281

March 2008

3.286

April 2008

3.502

May 2008

3.536

Figure: Job Losers Unemployed Less Than 5 Weeks
(as a percent of household employment)

Period

Percent 3-month moving average

January 2000

0.833

0.837

February 2000

0.837

0.842

March 2000

0.867

0.846

April 2000

0.729

0.811

May 2000

0.835

0.810

June 2000

0.869

0.811

July 2000

0.833

0.846

August 2000

0.876

0.859

September 2000

0.872

0.860

October 2000

0.795

0.848

November 2000

0.829

0.832

December 2000

0.847

0.824

January 2001

0.927

0.868

February 2001

1.010

0.928

March 2001

0.914

0.950

April 2001

1.068

0.997

May 2001

1.065

1.015

June 2001

1.095

1.076

July 2001

0.958

1.039

August 2001

1.088

1.047

September 2001

1.091

1.046

October 2001

1.317

1.165

November 2001

1.237

1.215

December 2001

1.133

1.229

January 2002

1.218

1.196

February 2002

1.186

1.179

March 2002

1.108

1.171

April 2002

1.084

1.126

May 2002

1.053

1.082

June 2002

1.061

1.066

July 2002

1.080

1.065

August 2002

1.139

1.093

September 2002

1.054

1.091

October 2002

1.081

1.091

November 2002

1.128

1.088

December 2002

1.087

1.099

January 2003

1.100

1.105

February 2003

1.073

1.087

March 2003

1.086

1.086

April 2003

1.064

1.074

May 2003

1.213

1.121

June 2003

1.104

1.127

July 2003

1.079

1.132

August 2003

1.135

1.106

September 2003

1.039

1.084

October 2003

1.024

1.066

November 2003

0.992

1.018

December 2003

1.013

1.010

January 2004

0.983

0.996

February 2004

0.877

0.958

March 2004

1.025

0.962

April 2004

1.028

0.977

May 2004

1.002

1.018

June 2004

0.944

0.992

July 2004

1.077

1.008

August 2004

0.973

0.998

September 2004

1.029

1.027

October 2004

0.991

0.998

November 2004

0.977

0.999

December 2004

0.993

0.987

January 2005

0.971

0.980

February 2005

0.977

0.980

March 2005

0.876

0.941

April 2005

0.903

0.919

May 2005

0.895

0.891

June 2005

0.930

0.909

July 2005

0.924

0.916

August 2005

0.892

0.915

September 2005

0.996

0.937

October 2005

0.906

0.931

November 2005

0.839

0.913

December 2005

0.885

0.876

January 2006

0.858

0.860

February 2006

0.838

0.860

March 2006

0.925

0.874

April 2006

0.913

0.892

May 2006

0.891

0.910

June 2006

0.942

0.915

July 2006

0.876

0.903

August 2006

0.837

0.885

September 2006

0.871

0.861

October 2006

0.834

0.847

November 2006

0.857

0.854

December 2006

0.936

0.876

January 2007

0.893

0.895

February 2007

0.936

0.922

March 2007

0.797

0.875

April 2007

0.874

0.869

May 2007

0.862

0.844

June 2007

0.809

0.848

July 2007

0.854

0.841

August 2007

0.915

0.859

September 2007

0.883

0.884

October 2007

0.941

0.913

November 2007

0.962

0.929

December 2007

0.976

0.960

January 2008

0.982

0.973

February 2008

1.001

0.986

March 2008

1.089

1.024

April 2008

0.935

1.009

May 2008

1.169

1.064

Figure: Unemployed Due
to Job Loss
(as a percent of the labor
force)

Period

Percent

January 2000

1.78

February 2000

1.86

March 2000

1.77

April 2000

1.61

May 2000

1.73

June 2000

1.71

July 2000

1.74

August 2000

1.85

September 2000

1.77

October 2000

1.73

November 2000

1.76

December 2000

1.82

January 2001

1.95

February 2001

2.02

March 2001

2.12

April 2001

2.15

May 2001

2.21

June 2001

2.30

July 2001

2.34

August 2001

2.43

September 2001

2.52

October 2001

3.00

November 2001

3.10

December 2001

3.09

January 2002

3.12

February 2002

3.08

March 2002

3.07

April 2002

3.20

May 2002

3.21

June 2002

3.20

July 2002

3.18

August 2002

3.17

September 2002

3.12

October 2002

3.23

November 2002

3.27

December 2002

3.29

January 2003

3.23

February 2003

3.28

March 2003

3.26

April 2003

3.28

May 2003

3.48

June 2003

3.39

July 2003

3.38

August 2003

3.41

September 2003

3.38

October 2003

3.29

November 2003

3.18

December 2003

3.07

January 2004

2.99

February 2004

2.91

March 2004

3.11

April 2004

2.95

May 2004

2.85

June 2004

2.78

July 2004

2.85

August 2004

2.70

September 2004

2.73

October 2004

2.76

November 2004

2.74

December 2004

2.72

January 2005

2.71

February 2005

2.63

March 2005

2.55

April 2005

2.45

May 2005

2.42

June 2005

2.44

July 2005

2.39

August 2005

2.31

September 2005

2.50

October 2005

2.37

November 2005

2.33

December 2005

2.32

January 2006

2.22

February 2006

2.24

March 2006

2.29

April 2006

2.32

May 2006

2.30

June 2006

2.24

July 2006

2.18

August 2006

2.16

September 2006

2.13

October 2006

2.04

November 2006

2.11

December 2006

2.12

January 2007

2.22

February 2007

2.26

March 2007

2.12

April 2007

2.17

May 2007

2.21

June 2007

2.23

July 2007

2.37

August 2007

2.38

September 2007

2.36

October 2007

2.43

November 2007

2.35

December 2007

2.51

January 2008

2.47

February 2008

2.51

March 2008

2.70

April 2008

2.61

May 2008

2.77

Labor Market Indicators
Figure: Unemployment Insurance
Period

Initial claims (Thousands) Insured unemployment (Millions)

9 January 1999

327.00

2.26

16 January 1999

337.43

2.29

23 January 1999

331.36

2.29

30 January 1999

324.90

2.28

6 February 1999

311.35

2.27

13 February 1999

304.59

2.26

20 February 1999

302.25

2.25

27 February 1999

301.17

2.24

6 March 1999

303.53

2.24

13 March 1999

302.70

2.23

20 March 1999

303.42

2.23

27 March 1999

302.69

2.23

3 April 1999

305.10

2.24

10 April 1999

307.70

2.24

17 April 1999

310.01

2.24

24 April 1999

308.22

2.24

1 May 1999

304.72

2.22

8 May 1999

302.43

2.21

15 May 1999

299.11

2.21

22 May 1999

301.07

2.22

29 May 1999

302.98

2.21

5 June 1999

301.42

2.21

12 June 1999

298.81

2.21

19 June 1999

297.22

2.20

26 June 1999

294.23

2.19

3 July 1999

290.04

2.19

10 July 1999

289.49

2.18

17 July 1999

293.77

2.19

24 July 1999

297.49

2.20

31 July 1999

300.88

2.19

7 August 1999

302.51

2.20

14 August 1999

298.26

2.18

21 August 1999

293.16

2.18

28 August 1999

290.55

2.18

4 September 1999

289.34

2.17

11 September 1999

286.65

2.17

18 September 1999

285.51

2.16

25 September 1999

289.57

2.16

2 October 1999

294.34

2.16

9 October 1999

296.70

2.14

16 October 1999

298.09

2.13

23 October 1999

291.69

2.11

30 October 1999

285.84

2.09

6 November 1999

283.74

2.09

13 November 1999

282.19

2.08

20 November 1999

281.21

2.08

27 November 1999

281.80

2.09

4 December 1999

282.97

2.08

11 December 1999

280.88

2.09

18 December 1999

283.51

2.10

25 December 1999

278.57

2.10

1 January 2000

278.34

2.10

8 January 2000

284.81

2.11

15 January 2000

285.44

2.11

22 January 2000

289.54

2.10

29 January 2000

289.33

2.11

5 February 2000

292.79

2.13

12 February 2000

295.48

2.13

19 February 2000

295.18

2.15

26 February 2000

293.90

2.15

4 March 2000

287.32

2.13

11 March 2000

279.76

2.12

18 March 2000

276.59

2.10

25 March 2000

274.58

2.08

1 April 2000

269.75

2.06

8 April 2000

269.19

2.04

15 April 2000

266.29

2.02

22 April 2000

266.65

2.01

29 April 2000

272.85

2.01

6 May 2000

279.08

2.00

13 May 2000

283.30

2.01

20 May 2000

284.79

2.00

27 May 2000

282.06

1.99

3 June 2000

281.32

2.00

10 June 2000

283.41

2.01

17 June 2000

286.97

2.02

24 June 2000

290.96

2.03

1 July 2000

288.87

2.04

8 July 2000

291.09

2.06

15 July 2000

293.48

2.08

22 July 2000

294.48

2.09

29 July 2000

298.71

2.09

5 August 2000

301.91

2.09

12 August 2000

304.89

2.09

19 August 2000

309.24

2.11

26 August 2000

312.60

2.12

2 September 2000

311.49

2.14

9 September 2000

309.94

2.14

16 September 2000

308.29

2.14

23 September 2000

302.44

2.13

30 September 2000

300.19

2.11

7 October 2000

300.05

2.11

14 October 2000

297.15

2.11

21 October 2000

298.93

2.10

28 October 2000

301.09

2.12

4 November 2000

306.75

2.11

11 November 2000

311.38

2.12

18 November 2000

320.55

2.17

25 November 2000

334.38

2.21

2 December 2000

335.98

2.24

9 December 2000

336.83

2.27

16 December 2000

342.32

2.28

23 December 2000

344.11

2.29

30 December 2000

348.01

2.33

6 January 2001

351.98

2.35

13 January 2001

343.09

2.36

20 January 2001

337.94

2.38

27 January 2001

340.21

2.40

3 February 2001

349.78

2.43

10 February 2001

361.55

2.45

17 February 2001

365.31

2.47

24 February 2001

371.18

2.49

3 March 2001

373.28

2.50

10 March 2001

380.04

2.53

17 March 2001

388.72

2.56

24 March 2001

386.74

2.58

31 March 2001

387.86

2.59

7 April 2001

389.25

2.60

14 April 2001

386.92

2.63

21 April 2001

392.51

2.67

28 April 2001

396.85

2.70

5 May 2001

392.66

2.73

12 May 2001

394.27

2.75

19 May 2001

394.82

2.77

26 May 2001

394.73

2.82

2 June 2001

401.03

2.87

9 June 2001

406.21

2.90

16 June 2001

404.21

2.93

23 June 2001

398.03

2.94

30 June 2001

395.01

2.95

7 July 2001

392.68

2.98

14 July 2001

395.43

3.01

21 July 2001

399.78

3.01

28 July 2001

398.07

3.03

4 August 2001

397.90

3.03

11 August 2001

395.09

3.06

18 August 2001

396.03

3.09

25 August 2001

397.80

3.12

1 September 2001

398.23

3.15

8 September 2001

401.67

3.17

15 September 2001

399.85

3.20

22 September 2001

414.38

3.23

29 September 2001

442.96

3.27

6 October 2001

460.01

3.33

13 October 2001

481.95

3.41

20 October 2001

489.14

3.47

27 October 2001

480.81

3.53

3 November 2001

471.69

3.57

10 November 2001

458.13

3.60

17 November 2001

445.62

3.66

24 November 2001

447.66

3.66

1 December 2001

453.93

3.66

8 December 2001

445.27

3.66

15 December 2001

434.69

3.62

22 December 2001

415.82

3.62

29 December 2001

404.90

3.58

5 January 2002

405.87

3.57

12 January 2002

413.03

3.54

19 January 2002

410.24

3.53

26 January 2002

408.57

3.55

2 February 2002

410.31

3.54

9 February 2002

405.19

3.55

16 February 2002

403.28

3.56

23 February 2002

399.25

3.55

2 March 2002

396.06

3.56

9 March 2002

396.47

3.56

16 March 2002

395.06

3.57

23 March 2002

399.25

3.58

30 March 2002

421.04

3.62

6 April 2002

432.51

3.66

13 April 2002

445.02

3.68

20 April 2002

445.27

3.69

27 April 2002

429.02

3.69

4 May 2002

420.15

3.68

11 May 2002

413.05

3.70

18 May 2002

411.93

3.71

25 May 2002

409.33

3.71

1 June 2002

401.37

3.70

8 June 2002

394.94

3.69

15 June 2002

391.00

3.67

22 June 2002

387.19

3.65

29 June 2002

389.23

3.63

6 July 2002

390.18

3.60

13 July 2002

387.31

3.57

20 July 2002

385.06

3.53

27 July 2002

386.23

3.50

3 August 2002

385.29

3.49

10 August 2002

386.52

3.49

17 August 2002

391.59

3.50

24 August 2002

393.51

3.51

31 August 2002

395.24

3.52

7 September 2002

401.87

3.53

14 September 2002

405.08

3.54

21 September 2002

405.72

3.55

28 September 2002

409.36

3.55

5 October 2002

406.45

3.58

12 October 2002

404.59

3.57

19 October 2002

407.36

3.56

26 October 2002

407.38

3.56

2 November 2002

407.54

3.54

9 November 2002

406.33

3.54

16 November 2002

400.71

3.52

23 November 2002

395.87

3.50

30 November 2002

389.08

3.46

7 December 2002

395.36

3.46

14 December 2002

405.37

3.48

21 December 2002

406.42

3.47

28 December 2002

414.38

3.48

4 January 2003

406.41

3.46

11 January 2003

393.60

3.43

18 January 2003

395.57

3.41

25 January 2003

394.95

3.41

1 February 2003

399.99

3.40

8 February 2003

403.01

3.41

15 February 2003

407.46

3.43

22 February 2003

411.06

3.44

1 March 2003

416.70

3.47

8 March 2003

425.18

3.49

15 March 2003

427.73

3.52

22 March 2003

425.11

3.54

29 March 2003

425.08

3.55

5 April 2003

423.38

3.56

12 April 2003

424.31

3.57

19 April 2003

434.00

3.59

26 April 2003

436.05

3.63

3 May 2003

438.74

3.67

10 May 2003

434.54

3.70

17 May 2003

428.46

3.71

24 May 2003

422.10

3.71

31 May 2003

422.94

3.72

7 June 2003

425.97

3.71

14 June 2003

424.99

3.71

21 June 2003

422.35

3.71

28 June 2003

421.78

3.70

5 July 2003

422.75

3.69

12 July 2003

420.53

3.66

19 July 2003

419.23

3.64

26 July 2003

411.42

3.62

2 August 2003

403.52

3.61

9 August 2003

401.40

3.61

16 August 2003

400.09

3.61

23 August 2003

398.38

3.59

30 August 2003

399.80

3.59

6 September 2003

404.20

3.60

13 September 2003

403.37

3.58

20 September 2003

400.39

3.59

27 September 2003

395.43

3.58

4 October 2003

386.58

3.57

11 October 2003

382.02

3.55

18 October 2003

384.05

3.52

25 October 2003

381.95

3.49

1 November 2003

376.07

3.45

8 November 2003

374.91

3.44

15 November 2003

370.54

3.41

22 November 2003

364.32

3.38

29 November 2003

363.03

3.36

6 December 2003

362.06

3.33

13 December 2003

360.41

3.31

20 December 2003

360.49

3.29

27 December 2003

358.49

3.27

3 January 2004

355.03

3.24

10 January 2004

352.44

3.22

17 January 2004

354.80

3.19

24 January 2004

355.84

3.16

31 January 2004

361.55

3.15

7 February 2004

368.85

3.15

14 February 2004

367.03

3.15

21 February 2004

368.98

3.14

28 February 2004

361.94

3.12

6 March 2004

352.65

3.09

13 March 2004

348.67

3.07

20 March 2004

345.30

3.06

27 March 2004

344.07

3.05

3 April 2004

341.99

3.03

10 April 2004

345.66

3.03

17 April 2004

349.59

3.02

24 April 2004

348.68

3.01

1 May 2004

345.84

3.01

8 May 2004

339.42

3.00

15 May 2004

335.66

2.98

22 May 2004

336.25

2.99

29 May 2004

338.86

2.97

5 June 2004

345.11

2.95

12 June 2004

342.60

2.96

19 June 2004

345.44

2.94

26 June 2004

348.82

2.94

3 July 2004

341.17

2.95

10 July 2004

341.86

2.91

17 July 2004

341.65

2.91

24 July 2004

341.57

2.91

31 July 2004

346.35

2.90

7 August 2004

345.18

2.92

14 August 2004

339.99

2.90

21 August 2004

338.32

2.89

28 August 2004

340.50

2.88

4 September 2004

337.76

2.87

11 September 2004

337.51

2.87

18 September 2004

337.84

2.86

25 September 2004

338.20

2.85

2 October 2004

340.78

2.84

9 October 2004

342.45

2.81

16 October 2004

338.51

2.79

23 October 2004

334.63

2.77

30 October 2004

333.47

2.76

6 November 2004

331.61

2.76

13 November 2004

334.36

2.75

20 November 2004

328.53

2.73

27 November 2004

329.37

2.74

4 December 2004

333.09

2.73

11 December 2004

327.78

2.73

18 December 2004

330.28

2.73

25 December 2004

326.25

2.73

1 January 2005

327.43

2.71

8 January 2005

337.94

2.71

15 January 2005

340.45

2.73

22 January 2005

343.34

2.70

29 January 2005

338.68

2.71

5 February 2005

326.38

2.71

12 February 2005

319.93

2.68

19 February 2005

317.84

2.67

26 February 2005

314.13

2.66

5 March 2005

320.51

2.66

12 March 2005

325.17

2.66

19 March 2005

328.15

2.66

26 March 2005

335.46

2.66

2 April 2005

337.16

2.67

9 April 2005

336.22

2.66

16 April 2005

330.40

2.65

23 April 2005

323.41

2.63

30 April 2005

322.00

2.61

7 May 2005

323.06

2.62

14 May 2005

326.29

2.62

21 May 2005

327.13

2.62

28 May 2005

327.89

2.62

4 June 2005

330.49

2.62

11 June 2005

332.88

2.63

18 June 2005

333.21

2.63

25 June 2005

326.20

2.63

2 July 2005

323.14

2.62

9 July 2005

322.47

2.61

16 July 2005

321.86

2.61

23 July 2005

323.78

2.61

30 July 2005

322.12

2.60

6 August 2005

317.80

2.60

13 August 2005

317.77

2.59

20 August 2005

316.90

2.59

27 August 2005

316.68

2.59

3 September 2005

320.36

2.58

10 September 2005

345.89

2.60

17 September 2005

373.26

2.65

24 September 2005

384.32

2.72

1 October 2005

399.04

2.79

8 October 2005

388.86

2.83

15 October 2005

369.35

2.84

22 October 2005

359.71

2.82

29 October 2005

343.51

2.79

5 November 2005

329.27

2.77

12 November 2005

320.11

2.75

19 November 2005

320.18

2.73

26 November 2005

316.74

2.69

3 December 2005

315.93

2.65

10 December 2005

320.07

2.62

17 December 2005

317.45

2.60

24 December 2005

319.77

2.62

31 December 2005

314.35

2.64

7 January 2006

311.05

2.62

14 January 2006

303.86

2.60

21 January 2006

297.00

2.55

28 January 2006

292.70

2.53

4 February 2006

286.82

2.51

11 February 2006

289.71

2.50

18 February 2006

289.03

2.49

25 February 2006

292.22

2.47

4 March 2006

295.37

2.46

11 March 2006

298.35

2.46

18 March 2006

303.41

2.46

25 March 2006

304.32

2.45

1 April 2006

303.42

2.44

8 April 2006

300.84

2.44

15 April 2006

299.17

2.43

22 April 2006

300.81

2.43

29 April 2006

306.96

2.43

6 May 2006

318.48

2.42

13 May 2006

327.81

2.42

20 May 2006

331.47

2.42

27 May 2006

332.57

2.43

3 June 2006

323.01

2.43

10 June 2006

313.04

2.44

17 June 2006

310.61

2.43

24 June 2006

306.10

2.44

1 July 2006

308.65

2.44

8 July 2006

316.35

2.45

15 July 2006

317.09

2.46

22 July 2006

315.97

2.46

29 July 2006

316.23

2.47

5 August 2006

314.35

2.47

12 August 2006

314.81

2.47

19 August 2006

317.77

2.48

26 August 2006

317.43

2.48

2 September 2006

316.59

2.48

9 September 2006

316.40

2.47

16 September 2006

318.55

2.47

23 September 2006

320.71

2.46

30 September 2006

319.39

2.45

7 October 2006

319.85

2.45

14 October 2006

314.78

2.46

21 October 2006

311.86

2.45

28 October 2006

316.10

2.45

4 November 2006

316.51

2.45

11 November 2006

318.94

2.44

18 November 2006

322.05

2.45

25 November 2006

326.02

2.47

2 December 2006

328.08

2.47

9 December 2006

327.58

2.48

16 December 2006

326.04

2.49

23 December 2006

319.77

2.47

30 December 2006

320.72

2.46

6 January 2007

321.14

2.45

13 January 2007

315.75

2.44

20 January 2007

320.15

2.47

27 January 2007

314.87

2.48

3 February 2007

313.47

2.49

10 February 2007

322.39

2.49

17 February 2007

318.87

2.51

24 February 2007

322.39

2.52

3 March 2007

324.81

2.53

10 March 2007

318.43

2.53

17 March 2007

315.80

2.51

24 March 2007

311.54

2.50

31 March 2007

311.29

2.50

7 April 2007

316.31

2.50

14 April 2007

321.05

2.52

21 April 2007

323.68

2.52

28 April 2007

321.31

2.53

5 May 2007

313.68

2.52

12 May 2007

305.95

2.51

19 May 2007

304.58

2.50

26 May 2007

304.89

2.50

2 June 2007

308.49

2.51

9 June 2007

311.50

2.51

16 June 2007

314.87

2.51

23 June 2007

316.03

2.52

30 June 2007

318.54

2.53

7 July 2007

316.16

2.54

14 July 2007

312.42

2.55

21 July 2007

310.66

2.55

28 July 2007

308.56

2.55

4 August 2007

312.11

2.55

11 August 2007

315.58

2.55

18 August 2007

320.11

2.56

25 August 2007

324.90

2.57

1 September 2007

325.28

2.58

8 September 2007

324.99

2.58

15 September 2007

323.15

2.58

22 September 2007

317.27

2.57

29 September 2007

318.36

2.55

6 October 2007

317.00

2.55

13 October 2007

321.81

2.55

20 October 2007

327.95

2.56

27 October 2007

329.98

2.57

3 November 2007

331.94

2.58

10 November 2007

332.01

2.59

17 November 2007

331.87

2.60

24 November 2007

336.10

2.61

1 December 2007

340.08

2.62

8 December 2007

339.81

2.64

15 December 2007

343.80

2.65

22 December 2007

344.86

2.68

29 December 2007

344.60

2.69

5 January 2008

342.79

2.72

12 January 2008

334.45

2.71

19 January 2008

327.12

2.70

26 January 2008

333.92

2.72

2 February 2008

339.19

2.71

9 February 2008

345.05

2.74

16 February 2008

349.57

2.75

23 February 2008

347.75

2.76

1 March 2008

346.04

2.78

8 March 2008

348.20

2.80

15 March 2008

356.38

2.83

22 March 2008

359.31

2.87

29 March 2008

374.66

2.91

5 April 2008

376.64

2.94

12 April 2008

376.59

2.96

19 April 2008

370.13

2.98

26 April 2008

364.30

3.00

3 May 2008

367.33

3.02

10 May 2008

367.18

3.05

17 May 2008

372.93

3.07

24 May 2008

371.21

3.08

31 May 2008

369.02

3.10

7 June 2008

371.43

ND

Note. 4-week moving averages.

Figure: Layoffs and Job Cuts
Period

Layoffs and discharges
Announced job cuts (Thousands)
(monthly, percent of private employment)

January 1999

ND

57.15

February 1999

ND

65.28

March 1999

ND

69.39

April 1999

ND

58.23

May 1999

ND

73.76

June 1999

ND

79.45

July 1999

ND

55.48

August 1999

ND

62.15

September 1999

ND

63.17

October 1999

ND

5.46

November 1999

ND

46.12

December 1999

ND

39.14

January 2000

ND

27.89

February 2000

ND

37.65

March 2000

ND

58.05

April 2000

ND

38.15

May 2000

ND

47.69

June 2000

ND

35.08

July 2000

ND

65.44

August 2000

ND

62.91

September 2000

ND

50.15

October 2000

ND

25.68

November 2000

ND

37.54

December 2000

1.227

126.56

January 2001

1.332

119.00

February 2001

1.300

103.70

March 2001

1.377

166.97

April 2001

1.338

166.67

May 2001

1.428

100.21

June 2001

1.324

142.76

July 2001

1.453

209.41

August 2001

1.355

146.16

September 2001

1.502

248.73

October 2001

1.683

224.60

November 2001

1.684

173.41

December 2001

1.423

154.47

January 2002

1.240

190.74

February 2002

1.395

128.49

March 2002

1.375

108.16

April 2002

1.328

113.23

May 2002

1.430

104.59

June 2002

1.430

112.38

July 2002

1.362

86.90

August 2002

1.351

122.59

September 2002

1.295

69.12

October 2002

1.386

159.63

November 2002

1.590

148.41

December 2002

1.412

87.28

January 2003

1.460

110.41

February 2003

1.386

137.09

March 2003

1.367

93.39

April 2003

1.418

146.04

May 2003

1.337

86.80

June 2003

1.534

77.78

July 2003

1.475

93.81

August 2003

1.446

82.92

September 2003

1.391

74.22

October 2003

1.384

155.24

November 2003

1.394

89.69

December 2003

1.600

89.78

January 2004

1.376

96.11

February 2004

1.480

74.14

March 2004

1.461

78.48

April 2004

1.509

70.76

May 2004

1.453

89.62

June 2004

1.337

82.70

July 2004

1.387

80.87

August 2004

1.545

76.53

September 2004

1.475

105.46

October 2004

1.477

84.23

November 2004

1.388

93.08

December 2004

1.498

107.79

January 2005

1.496

71.56

February 2005

1.473

103.08

March 2005

1.453

100.19

April 2005

1.507

55.92

May 2005

1.463

96.38

June 2005

1.447

127.27

July 2005

1.403

117.54

August 2005

1.343

73.56

September 2005

1.458

69.68

October 2005

1.260

63.48

November 2005

1.277

85.31

December 2005

1.303

106.97

January 2006

1.204

85.38

February 2006

1.274

79.60

March 2006

1.352

81.39

April 2006

1.212

57.87

May 2006

1.470

65.52

June 2006

1.255

80.40

July 2006

1.312

54.51

August 2006

1.250

68.92

September 2006

1.136

97.14

October 2006

1.346

54.42

November 2006

1.361

60.99

December 2006

1.312

52.65

January 2007

1.311

48.11

February 2007

1.277

74.55

March 2007

1.250

66.02

April 2007

1.325

70.38

May 2007

1.267

79.98

June 2007

1.358

66.32

July 2007

1.316

61.54

August 2007

1.357

83.23

September 2007

1.428

66.66

October 2007

1.438

52.89

November 2007

1.450

57.34

December 2007

1.316

41.08

January 2008

1.412

62.07

February 2008

1.382

61.70

March 2008

1.351

69.80

April 2008

1.336

90.62

May 2008

ND

110.19

Note. Both series are seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.
Source. For layoffs and discharges, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; for job cuts, Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, Inc.

Figure: Net Hiring
Plans: Manpower,
Inc.
Period

Percent

1999:Q1

21

1999:Q2

21

1999:Q3

21

1999:Q4

22

2000:Q1

21

2000:Q2

24

2000:Q3

25

2000:Q4

24

2001:Q1

24

2001:Q2

18

2001:Q3

14

2001:Q4

12

2002:Q1

7

2002:Q2

9

2002:Q3

15

2002:Q4

14

2003:Q1

15

2003:Q2

11

2003:Q3

7

2003:Q4

10

2004:Q1

14

2004:Q2

20

2004:Q3

20

2004:Q4

20

2005:Q1

21

2005:Q2

21

2005:Q3

21

2005:Q4

20

2006:Q1

20

2006:Q2

21

2006:Q3

21

2006:Q4

20

2007:Q1

19

2007:Q2

18

2007:Q3

18

2007:Q4

18

2008:Q1

17

2008:Q2

14

2008:Q3

12

Note. Percent planning an increase in employment minus percent planning a reduction.

Figure: Net Hiring Plans:
National Federation of
Independent Business*
(3-month moving average)

Period

Percent

January 1999

16.65

February 1999

16.64

March 1999

16.15

April 1999

17.11

May 1999

16.17

June 1999

16.15

July 1999

15.04

August 1999

15.86

September 1999

17.09

October 1999

18.06

November 1999

19.30

December 1999

19.26

January 2000

19.15

February 2000

18.48

March 2000

17.26

April 2000

17.18

May 2000

16.45

June 2000

15.09

July 2000

15.20

August 2000

15.90

September 2000

17.59

October 2000

16.41

November 2000

14.52

December 2000

12.40

January 2001

12.56

February 2001

13.61

March 2001

14.68

April 2001

13.64

May 2001

12.69

June 2001

11.32

July 2001

11.62

August 2001

12.60

September 2001

12.56

October 2001

10.77

November 2001

9.45

December 2001

7.85

January 2002

9.02

February 2002

8.24

March 2002

10.62

April 2002

11.10

May 2002

12.69

June 2002

12.98

July 2002

12.07

August 2002

11.15

September 2002

9.22

October 2002

9.78

November 2002

9.26

December 2002

10.23

January 2003

8.73

February 2003

8.13

March 2003

5.90

April 2003

6.54

May 2003

7.09

June 2003

9.31

July 2003

10.32

August 2003

10.91

September 2003

10.99

October 2003

11.35

November 2003

11.86

December 2003

14.46

January 2004

15.44

February 2004

15.95

March 2004

15.21

April 2004

14.94

May 2004

14.90

June 2004

14.39

July 2004

14.38

August 2004

15.15

September 2004

15.00

October 2004

14.85

November 2004

15.95

December 2004

16.40

January 2005

16.14

February 2005

15.11

March 2005

14.47

April 2005

13.90

May 2005

13.78

June 2005

13.89

July 2005

14.60

August 2005

14.05

September 2005

14.90

October 2005

15.64

November 2005

15.33

December 2005

14.41

January 2006

14.22

February 2006

14.97

March 2006

14.70

April 2006

15.15

May 2006

14.97

June 2006

14.10

July 2006

13.45

August 2006

13.24

September 2006

15.07

October 2006

15.14

November 2006

16.76

December 2006

14.49

January 2007

14.64

February 2007

12.26

March 2007

14.63

April 2007

14.04

May 2007

14.73

June 2007

13.85

July 2007

13.60

August 2007

13.03

September 2007

12.69

October 2007

11.69

November 2007

11.28

December 2007

10.50

January 2008

9.70

February 2008

9.27

March 2008

8.32

April 2008

7.67

May 2008

5.43

Note. Percent planning an increase in employment minus percent planning a reduction.
* Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.  Return to table

Figure: Job Openings and Hires
Percent of private employment

Period

Job openings Hires (monthly)

December 2000

3.5

4.1

January 2001

3.5

4.1

February 2001

3.4

4.0

March 2001

3.1

4.0

April 2001

3.1

3.9

May 2001

3.0

3.8

June 2001

2.9

3.7

July 2001

2.7

3.7

August 2001

2.6

3.6

September 2001

2.6

3.7

October 2001

2.4

3.8

November 2001

2.4

3.7

December 2001

2.3

3.5

January 2002

2.3

3.4

February 2002

2.3

3.6

March 2002

2.3

3.3

April 2002

2.3

3.6

May 2002

2.3

3.6

June 2002

2.3

3.5

July 2002

2.3

3.8

August 2002

2.3

3.5

September 2002

2.3

3.6

October 2002

2.4

3.3

November 2002

2.3

3.4

December 2002

2.1

3.4

January 2003

2.3

3.5

February 2003

2.2

3.4

March 2003

2.1

3.4

April 2003

2.2

3.4

May 2003

2.2

3.4

June 2003

2.3

3.5

July 2003

2.2

3.6

August 2003

2.2

3.6

September 2003

2.1

3.6

October 2003

2.2

3.6

November 2003

2.3

3.6

December 2003

2.3

3.7

January 2004

2.3

3.6

February 2004

2.3

3.5

March 2004

2.4

4.1

April 2004

2.5

3.9

May 2004

2.5

3.7

June 2004

2.5

3.9

July 2004

2.6

3.7

August 2004

2.6

3.9

September 2004

2.6

3.8

October 2004

2.6

3.9

November 2004

2.5

4.3

December 2004

2.6

4.0

January 2005

2.6

4.0

February 2005

2.7

4.0

March 2005

2.8

4.1

April 2005

2.8

3.9

May 2005

2.7

4.0

June 2005

2.8

3.9

July 2005

2.8

3.9

August 2005

2.8

4.0

September 2005

2.9

4.0

October 2005

3.0

4.0

November 2005

3.1

4.0

December 2005

3.0

3.9

January 2006

3.0

4.0

February 2006

3.1

4.2

March 2006

3.1

4.0

April 2006

3.0

3.8

May 2006

3.2

4.1

June 2006

3.0

4.0

July 2006

2.9

4.2

August 2006

3.0

3.9

September 2006

3.1

3.9

October 2006

3.1

4.0

November 2006

3.1

4.0

December 2006

3.2

3.9

January 2007

3.2

4.0

February 2007

3.1

3.9

March 2007

3.1

3.9

April 2007

3.1

3.8

May 2007

3.1

3.9

June 2007

3.2

3.8

July 2007

3.1

3.9

August 2007

3.1

3.8

September 2007

3.1

3.7

October 2007

3.0

3.9

November 2007

3.0

3.7

December 2007

3.0

3.7

January 2008

2.9

3.7

February 2008

2.8

3.6

March 2008

2.7

3.6

April 2008

2.8

3.8

Source. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Figure: Expected Labor Market Conditions
Index

Period

Reuters/Michigan Conference Board

January 1999

85

99.1

February 1999

92

100.5

March 1999

87

102.1

April 1999

91

104.4

May 1999

90

104.7

June 1999

98

108.1

July 1999

91

104.3

August 1999

87

104.6

September 1999

90

102.8

October 1999

88

101.3

November 1999

89

104.4

December 1999

95

105.9

January 2000

96

106.8

February 2000

94

105.6

March 2000

91

104.0

April 2000

91

104.8

May 2000

96

109.5

June 2000

88

106.6

July 2000

89

107.4

August 2000

92

106.1

September 2000

89

107.8

October 2000

83

105.8

November 2000

86

101.1

December 2000

73

98.3

January 2001

61

90.2

February 2001

57

84.3

March 2001

57

91.8

April 2001

54

89.4

May 2001

62

94.2

June 2001

65

97.5

July 2001

60

98.6

August 2001

58

98.0

September 2001

49

90.4

October 2001

50

84.9

November 2001

57

88.1

December 2001

65

97.2

January 2002

77

100.9

February 2002

76

98.8

March 2002

88

107.2

April 2002

91

107.4

May 2002

89

107.6

June 2002

85

106.1

July 2002

68

100.3

August 2002

71

99.6

September 2002

80

100.5

October 2002

69

93.2

November 2002

77

96.6

December 2002

73

95.2

January 2003

69

93.0

February 2003

70

83.9

March 2003

70

84.3

April 2003

80

95.5

May 2003

93

100.1

June 2003

85

102.0

July 2003

84

97.0

August 2003

89

99.4

September 2003

86

95.5

October 2003

83

99.2

November 2003

95

100.5

December 2003

102

106.1

January 2004

105

104.8

February 2004

95

97.6

March 2004

92

98.4

April 2004

93

100.6

May 2004

93

101.4

June 2004

104

103.1

July 2004

107

106.0

August 2004

94

101.2

September 2004

95

101.6

October 2004

95

98.4

November 2004

94

98.3

December 2004

97

101.1

January 2005

89

101.5

February 2005

89

98.5

March 2005

88

99.3

April 2005

82

95.6

May 2005

81

99.2

June 2005

84

99.0

July 2005

83

98.9

August 2005

77

99.1

September 2005

63

89.2

October 2005

66

88.3

November 2005

78

96.0

December 2005

74

96.7

January 2006

73

98.4

February 2006

72

93.5

March 2006

71

97.3

April 2006

71

99.1

May 2006

73

96.8

June 2006

73

98.3

July 2006

71

97.8

August 2006

70

96.1

September 2006

75

98.2

October 2006

78

97.1

November 2006

79

97.2

December 2006

79

98.4

January 2007

85

98.2

February 2007

75

99.1

March 2007

77

96.7

April 2007

71

97.6

May 2007

80

98.0

June 2007

75

97.0

July 2007

77

98.9

August 2007

69

97.7

September 2007

73

94.7

October 2007

70

93.1

November 2007

72

87.8

December 2007

61

91.0

January 2008

59

88.6

February 2008

59

80.9

March 2008

52

78.7

April 2008

46

75.9

May 2008

47

76.3

June 2008 (p)

41

ND

Note. The proportion of households expecting labor market conditions to improve, minus the proportion expecting conditions to worsen, plus 100.
p Preliminary.  Return to table

Figure: Job Availability and Hard-to-Fill Positions
Period

Job availability* (Index) Hard-to-fill** (Percent, 3-month moving average)

January 1999

133.58

29.46

February 1999

135.43

29.93

March 1999

133.24

30.59

April 1999

134.75

31.74

May 1999

133.97

30.67

June 1999

133.68

29.99

July 1999

135.28

28.80

August 1999

136.00

28.85

September 1999

135.30

28.69

October 1999

138.25

29.71

November 1999

139.13

30.90

December 1999

141.11

31.71

January 2000

143.76

31.45

February 2000

139.97

31.58

March 2000

140.90

31.88

April 2000

139.89

32.64

May 2000

140.83

33.61

June 2000

140.83

33.72

July 2000

143.40

33.59

August 2000

141.25

33.58

September 2000

142.77

33.35

October 2000

141.69

33.05

November 2000

142.10

33.59

December 2000

139.82

33.39

January 2001

135.86

33.10

February 2001

131.87

31.58

March 2001

129.60

29.47

April 2001

125.31

27.52

May 2001

123.70

25.83

June 2001

122.44

26.09

July 2001

118.65

26.02

August 2001

116.88

27.00

September 2001

109.63

26.71

October 2001

103.73

25.41

November 2001

97.26

21.97

December 2001

97.75

20.12

January 2002

95.35

19.44

February 2002

96.15

19.53

March 2002

98.20

19.33

April 2002

97.38

19.72

May 2002

97.97

19.74

June 2002

94.58

20.47

July 2002

92.26

21.15

August 2002

92.82

21.11

September 2002

92.45

19.37

October 2002

90.75

18.37

November 2002

89.49

19.34

December 2002

84.50

19.25

January 2003

84.83

19.10

February 2003

81.49

18.12

March 2003

77.96

18.53

April 2003

82.47

17.68

May 2003

77.88

16.72

June 2003

76.88

16.51

July 2003

75.69

16.23

August 2003

76.52

17.48

September 2003

77.23

18.33

October 2003

81.48

19.32

November 2003

86.75

19.05

December 2003

83.53

19.38

January 2004

83.94

19.42

February 2004

85.06

19.36

March 2004

83.70

19.74

April 2004

86.24

20.32

May 2004

84.79

21.42

June 2004

89.85

20.90

July 2004

91.97

21.99

August 2004

91.85

21.51

September 2004

91.53

21.59

October 2004

92.99

21.59

November 2004

92.16

22.07

December 2004

94.70

23.17

January 2005

94.92

22.08

February 2005

97.52

22.33

March 2005

96.83

22.32

April 2005

96.14

22.95

May 2005

97.45

23.07

June 2005

98.17

21.94

July 2005

97.13

21.73

100.20

21.54

September 2005

98.80

22.57

October 2005

99.03

22.58

November 2005

100.62

23.42

December 2005

102.15

23.23

January 2006

104.54

24.41

February 2006

105.60

24.31

March 2006

106.55

24.23

April 2006

108.58

25.89

May 2006

107.79

26.01

June 2006

106.53

26.96

July 2006

107.04

25.14

August 2006

103.23

24.62

September 2006

108.37

24.59

October 2006

107.62

25.58

November 2006

106.66

25.42

December 2006

107.36

23.60

January 2007

107.54

22.72

February 2007

108.09

22.98

March 2007

109.86

24.84

April 2007

107.81

24.83

May 2007

108.46

24.92

June 2007

105.96

25.29

July 2007

109.35

24.87

August 2007

107.75

24.71

September 2007

106.04

24.28

October 2007

105.20

23.94

November 2007

104.84

22.76

August 2005

December 2007

101.83

21.64

January 2008

100.73

21.69

February 2008

96.29

21.29

March 2008

93.04

20.12

April 2008

88.47

19.14

May 2008

87.49

17.89

* Proportion of households believing jobs are plentiful, minus the proportion believing jobs are hard to get, plus 100.  Return to table
** Percent of small businesses surveyed with at least one "hard-to-fill" job opening. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.  Return to table
Source. For job availability, Conference Board; for hard-to-fill, National Federation of Independent Business.

Output per Hour
(Percent change from preceding period at an annual rate; seasonally adjusted)

2007

2008

2006:Q1
to
2007:Q1

2007:Q1
to
2008:Q1

All persons

.6

3.31

2.7

6.0

1.8

2.91

All employees 2

.5

2.71

2.9

5.2

.2

2.71

.5

3.0

2.1

2.9

2.4

4.6

Sector

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Nonfarm business

Nonfinancial corporations 3
1. Staff estimates.  Return to table

2. Assumes that the growth rate of hours of non-employees equals the growth rate of hours of employees.  Return to table
3. All corporations doing business in the United States except banks, stock and commodity brokers, and finance and insurance companies. The sector accounts for about two-thirds of business
employment. Nonfinancial corporate output is calculated as an income-side measure.  Return to table

Selected Components of Industrial Production
(Percent change from preceding comparable period)

Component

Proportion
2007
(percent)

2007

2008

Q4

20071

Q1

2008
Mar.

Apr.

Annual rate

May

Monthly rate

Total

100.0

2.1

.3

-.3

.1

-.7

-.2

Previous

100.0

2.2

.4

-.2

.2

-.7

…

78.7

2.3

-.6

-1.2

.2

-.9

.0

73.6

2.6

.3

-.2

.6

-.5

-.1

69.3

1.3

-1.4

-1.1

.5

-.6

-.2

Mining

11.6

.2

5.4

2.6

-.3

-.6

.1

Utilities

9.7

3.1

2.2

3.5

.0

.0

-1.8

 

 

Manufacturing
Ex. motor veh. and parts
Ex. high-tech industries
 

 

 

 

Selected industries
Energy

24.7

2.3

4.7

5.0

-.3

-.2

-.8

High technology

4.3

22.3

29.5

13.5

2.0

1.7

1.1

Computers

1.0

16.7

19.9

22.5

.9

.3

.7

Communications equipment

1.3

20.6

30.4

11.4

1.5

1.8

.9

Semiconductors 2

2.0

25.9

33.7

10.9

2.9

2.4

1.4

 

 

 

Motor vehicles and parts

 

5.1

-2.2

-13.1

-14.4

-4.9

-6.9

1.0

 

 

Total ex. selected industries

65.9

1.1

-1.9

-2.0

.6

-.7

-.1

Consumer goods

19.9

.3

3.6

-2.4

-3.0

-1.6

-6.9

-10.5

.8

-.6

-.1

.4

-1.0

-.5

16.3

.9

-2.1

.4

.9

-.5

.0

Business equipment

7.3

2.8

.0

3.0

.9

-1.8

-.1

Defense and space equipment

1.7

4.2

3.3

-.1

-.4

.0

-.6

Construction supplies

4.2

-1.9

-8.8

-7.8

-.3

-1.4

-.2

Business supplies

7.4

-.1

-1.5

-3.3

1.0

-.8

-.2

25.4

1.8

-.8

-2.6

.3

-.4

-.1

Durables

13.6

2.9

-.6

-1.0

.1

-.4

-.4

Nondurables

11.7

.6

-.9

-4.5

.6

-.4

.3

Durables
Nondurables
 

 

 

 

 

 

Materials

1. From fourth quarter of preceding year to fourth quarter of year shown.  Return to table
2. Includes related electronic components.  Return to table
… Not applicable.  Return to table

Capacity Utilization
(Percent of capacity)

Sector

19722007
average

Total industry

199495
high

2007

200102
low

Q3

2008
Q4

Q1

Apr.

May

81.0

85.1

73.6

81.3

81.0

80.6

79.6

79.4

79.7

84.6

71.5

79.8

79.3

78.7

77.7

77.5

79.9

84.3

71.2

80.2

79.8

79.3

78.8

78.6

 

 

Manufacturing
Ex. motor veh. and parts
Mining

87.5

88.7

84.8

89.0

90.2

90.3

89.6

89.6

Utilities

86.8

93.9

84.6

85.9

85.9

86.3

85.4

83.7

 

 

Stage-of-process groups
Crude

86.6

89.5

81.9

88.3

89.3

89.4

88.8

89.0

Primary and semifinished

82.2

88.2

74.6

81.9

81.3

80.7

79.8

79.3

Finished

77.7

80.4

69.9

78.0

77.6

77.2

76.0

75.9

Production of Domestic Light Vehicles
(Millions of units at an annual rate except as noted)

2007

2008

Item
Q4
U.S. production 1

Q1

Q2

Q3

Apr.

May

June

July

10.3

9.7

8.8

10.3

8.2

8.4

9.8

10.2

Autos

4.0

3.9

3.8

4.6

3.5

3.6

4.3

4.6

Light trucks

6.3

5.7

5.0

5.7

4.7

4.8

5.5

5.6

Days' supply2

64

65

n.a.

n.a.

72

69

n.a.

n.a.

Autos

51

51

n.a.

n.a.

53

44

n.a.

n.a.

Light trucks

76

76

n.a.

n.a.

88

95

n.a.

n.a.

2.59

2.45

n.a.

n.a.

2.47

2.35

n.a.

n.a.

.90

.84

n.a.

n.a.

.85

.77

n.a.

n.a.

Inventories3
Autos

Light trucks

1.69

n.a.

n.a.

1.62

1.58

n.a.

n.a.

10.5

Memo: U.S. production,
    total motor vehicles 4

1.61

9.9

9.0

10.5

8.4

8.6

10.1

10.5

Note. FRB seasonals. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.
1. Production rates for the second and third quarters reflect the latest industry schedules.  Return to table
2. Quarterly values are calculated with end-of-period stocks and average reported sales.  Return to table
3. End-of-period stocks.  Return to table
4. Includes medium and heavy trucks.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.  Return to table

Figure: Inventories of Light
Vehicles
Period

Millions of units

January 1998

2.887

February 1998

2.922

March 1998

2.952

April 1998

2.939

May 1998

2.879

June 1998

2.560

July 1998

2.464

August 1998

2.572

September 1998

2.596

October 1998

2.651

November 1998

2.671

December 1998

2.686

January 1999

2.732

February 1999

2.777

March 1999

2.828

April 1999

2.876

May 1999

2.873

June 1999

2.867

July 1999

2.849

August 1999

2.912

September 1999

2.909

October 1999

3.020

November 1999

3.048

December 1999

3.062

January 2000

3.092

February 2000

3.047

March 2000

3.066

April 2000

3.072

May 2000

3.099

June 2000

3.173

July 2000

3.263

August 2000

3.311

September 2000

3.289

October 2000

3.266

November 2000

3.267

December 2000

3.301

January 2001

3.204

February 2001

3.066

March 2001

2.995

April 2001

2.918

May 2001

2.888

June 2001

2.843

July 2001

2.837

August 2001

2.935

September 2001

2.882

October 2001

2.450

November 2001

2.418

December 2001

2.481

January 2002

2.539

February 2002

2.574

March 2002

2.551

April 2002

2.613

May 2002

2.699

June 2002

2.759

July 2002

2.725

August 2002

2.718

September 2002

2.801

October 2002

2.899

November 2002

3.017

December 2002

2.874

January 2003

2.951

February 2003

3.013

March 2003

3.092

April 2003

3.094

May 2003

3.100

June 2003

3.086

July 2003

3.103

August 2003

3.009

September 2003

3.101

October 2003

3.140

November 2003

3.140

December 2003

3.171

January 2004

3.148

February 2004

3.189

March 2004

3.257

April 2004

3.311

May 2004

3.264

June 2004

3.304

July 2004

3.337

August 2004

3.421

September 2004

3.301

October 2004

3.280

November 2004

3.236

December 2004

3.188

January 2005

3.219

February 2005

3.262

March 2005

3.120

April 2005

3.119

May 2005

3.061

June 2005

2.943

July 2005

2.616

August 2005

2.688

September 2005

2.782

October 2005

2.974

November 2005

3.020

December 2005

2.996

January 2006

2.953

February 2006

2.933

March 2006

2.989

April 2006

2.939

May 2006

2.986

June 2006

3.040

July 2006

3.018

August 2006

2.993

September 2006

2.970

October 2006

2.883

November 2006

2.794

December 2006

2.810

January 2007

2.749

February 2007

2.696

March 2007

2.674

April 2007

2.642

May 2007

2.601

June 2007

2.675

July 2007

2.872

August 2007

2.845

September 2007

2.747

October 2007

2.749

November 2007

2.745

December 2007

2.592

January 2008

2.560

February 2008

2.589

March 2008

2.449

April 2008

2.474

May 2008

2.354

Figure: Days' Supply of Light Vehicles
Days

Period

Using sales in current month

January 1998

67.45

February 1998

70.09

March 1998

69.60

April 1998

66.68

May 1998

60.58

June 1998

54.78

July 1998

62.25

August 1998

64.79

September 1998

57.48

October 1998

56.28

November 1998

60.66

December 1998

56.47

January 1999

60.26

February 1999

59.79

March 1999

61.80

April 1999

62.48

May 1999

60.77

June 1999

60.86

July 1999

59.69

August 1999

60.88

September 1999

61.05

October 1999

65.03

November 1999

65.35

December 1999

62.30

January 2000

62.26

February 2000

58.67

March 2000

62.58

April 2000

64.82

May 2000

65.31

June 2000

68.68

July 2000

71.74

August 2000

70.87

September 2000

66.01

October 2000

70.66

November 2000

74.49

December 2000

78.12

January 2001

68.70

February 2001

64.65

March 2001

65.93

April 2001

66.86

May 2001

65.35

June 2001

61.50

July 2001

66.20

August 2001

69.61

September 2001

67.73

October 2001

41.34

November 2001

50.82

December 2001

60.20

January 2002

60.97

February 2002

57.93

March 2002

58.42

April 2002

57.40

May 2002

65.36

June 2002

63.67

July 2002

58.41

August 2002

56.52

September 2002

66.54

October 2002

69.42

November 2002

72.33

December 2002

62.40

January 2003

69.69

February 2003

73.99

March 2003

74.59

April 2003

72.23

May 2003

73.43

June 2003

70.85

July 2003

70.78

August 2003

63.69

September 2003

70.23

October 2003

74.15

November 2003

69.64

December 2003

70.36

January 2004

73.19

February 2004

74.00

March 2004

74.55

April 2004

77.43

May 2004

70.42

June 2004

81.85

July 2004

75.62

August 2004

78.39

September 2004

72.12

October 2004

75.67

November 2004

74.50

December 2004

70.30

January 2005

75.84

February 2005

77.46

March 2005

71.35

April 2005

70.33

May 2005

70.16

June 2005

62.96

July 2005

47.80

August 2005

61.51

September 2005

65.69

October 2005

79.41

November 2005

72.61

December 2005

68.25

January 2006

64.29

February 2006

68.64

March 2006

70.51

April 2006

70.34

May 2006

73.36

June 2006

74.42

July 2006

71.22

August 2006

73.46

September 2006

70.97

October 2006

71.26

November 2006

69.61

December 2006

66.78

January 2007

67.82

February 2007

65.26

March 2007

66.65

April 2007

65.18

May 2007

64.11

June 2007

69.29

July 2007

76.01

August 2007

68.66

September 2007

67.61

October 2007

69.11

November 2007

68.04

December 2007

64.04

January 2008

66.89

February 2008

68.06

March 2008

67.43

April 2008

71.88

May 2008

69.24

A second series shown in the figure, "Using 3-month moving average of sales", begins at about 66 days in 1998, increases to about 70 shortly after, then decreases to about 55 in 1998:Q3. It
generally increases to about 75 in 2000:Q4, then generally decreases to about 49 in 2001:Q4, and generally increases to about 80 in 2004:Q3. The series generally decreases to about 54 in
2005:Q3, increases to about 75 in 2005:Q4, and it ends at about 67 in May 2008.

Indicators of High-Tech Manufacturing Activity
Figure: Industrial Production in the High-Tech Sector
2002 = 100, ratio scale

Period

Computers Communications equipment Semiconductors

January 2002

100.47

102.34

88.34

February 2002

100.61

104.27

88.94

March 2002

99.84

104.27

89.88

April 2002

98.76

103.16

92.94

May 2002

98.34

101.24

96.87

June 2002

99.15

101.08

101.25

July 2002

100.54

97.49

102.76

August 2002

101.43

98.19

104.42

September 2002

101.12

97.81

105.24

October 2002

100.19

95.30

107.00

November 2002

99.58

97.42

109.68

December 2002

99.97

97.44

112.67

January 2003

101.21

95.07

116.51

February 2003

102.75

98.89

121.44

March 2003

104.35

99.21

125.53

April 2003

106.08

99.12

127.21

May 2003

108.04

99.58

130.99

June 2003

110.17

101.71

134.40

July 2003

111.89

104.40

138.89

August 2003

112.44

107.02

138.44

September 2003

111.46

108.13

139.68

October 2003

109.93

110.84

144.36

November 2003

109.24

113.96

147.91

December 2003

110.23

115.83

148.92

January 2004

111.89

121.82

150.28

February 2004

112.57

121.78

152.97

March 2004

111.30

120.45

156.04

April 2004

108.86

117.90

157.90

May 2004

106.66

116.94

160.00

June 2004

105.76

116.46

160.20

July 2004

105.99

117.31

160.10

August 2004

106.76

117.60

163.95

September 2004

107.65

115.74

169.42

October 2004

108.99

115.96

171.32

November 2004

111.25

114.21

172.36

December 2004

114.58

112.83

173.88

January 2005

118.10

111.26

178.95

February 2005

120.33

111.79

182.17

March 2005

120.80

111.36

184.13

April 2005

120.57

111.83

188.11

May 2005

121.33

112.94

189.97

June 2005

124.23

112.65

191.25

July 2005

128.76

114.34

195.85

August 2005

133.89

115.71

203.04

September 2005

138.50

118.86

210.12

October 2005

142.09

125.23

213.25

November 2005

144.26

130.62

213.78

December 2005

144.98

134.08

215.01

January 2006

145.51

135.42

217.84

February 2006

147.42

138.47

220.57

March 2006

151.62

142.73

218.50

April 2006

156.99

148.11

216.75

May 2006

161.28

151.53

220.04

June 2006

163.12

155.95

223.64

July 2006

163.49

156.89

226.12

August 2006

164.21

156.17

235.05

September 2006

166.35

158.83

238.97

October 2006

168.93

156.57

244.35

November 2006

170.31

156.45

247.44

December 2006

169.60

157.19

249.42

January 2007

168.31

157.80

247.59

February 2007

168.72

159.22

247.21

March 2007

172.12

160.85

252.71

April 2007

177.43

161.95

259.87

May 2007

182.43

163.47

261.86

June 2007

185.54

167.11

272.96

July 2007

187.28

172.18

289.09

August 2007

188.94

176.86

288.39

September 2007

191.39

181.75

290.69

October 2007

194.61

186.25

306.36

November 2007

198.05

188.57

312.64

December 2007

201.35

192.36

314.47

January 2008

205.64

191.80

311.57

February 2008

208.73

194.02

318.58

March 2008

210.56

196.88

327.83

April 2008

211.24

200.43

335.54

May 2008

212.80

202.14

340.20

Figure: U.S. Personal
Computer and Server
Absorption
Millions of units, ratio scale

Period

PCs

Servers

2002:Q1 11.78

0.433

2002:Q2 11.54

0.442

2002:Q3 11.55

0.456

2002:Q4 11.72

0.474

2003:Q1 12.04

0.493

2003:Q2 12.53

0.524

2003:Q3 13.32

0.557

2003:Q4 13.48

0.587

2004:Q1 13.65

0.615

2004:Q2 13.28

0.630

2004:Q3 13.91

0.653

2004:Q4 14.50

0.683

2005:Q1 14.49

0.701

2005:Q2 14.75

0.688

2005:Q3 15.45

0.685

2005:Q4 15.47

0.720

2006:Q1 15.46

0.709

2006:Q2 15.84

0.725

2006:Q3 15.62

0.739

2006:Q4 15.50

0.697

2007:Q1 16.31

0.725

2007:Q2 16.92

0.751

2007:Q3 16.59

0.747

2007:Q4 17.22

0.745

2008:Q1 17.07

0.763

2008:Q2 17.43

ND

Note. FRB seasonals. PCs include desktops, notebooks, ultra portables, and x86 PC servers. The Q2 value for PCs is a forecast by IDC.

Figure: Capital
Expenditures by
Selected
Telecommunications
Service Providers
Billions of dollars, ratio scale

Period

Expenditures

2002:Q1

47.64

2002:Q2

44.79

2002:Q3

39.55

2002:Q4

41.99

2003:Q1

33.09

2003:Q2

31.39

2003:Q3

36.03

2003:Q4

38.36

2004:Q1

36.88

2004:Q2

36.17

2004:Q3

34.28

2004:Q4

35.84

2005:Q1

39.05

2005:Q2

42.18

2005:Q3

39.87

2005:Q4

38.96

2006:Q1

46.63

2006:Q2

41.27

2006:Q3

45.19

2006:Q4

43.13

2007:Q1

42.76

2007:Q2

41.79

2007:Q3

41.97

2007:Q4

43.18

2008:Q1

44.67

As shown in the figure, the series begins in 2000:Q1 at about 60, increases to about 72 by 2000:Q3, dips to about 65 in 2000:Q4, and rises back to about 72 by 2001:Q1. The series then
declines steadily to about 58 by 2001:Q4.
Note. FRB seasonals. Includes AT&T, Verizon, Sprint Nextel, and companies related by merger, acquisition, or spinoff.
Source. SEC filings.

Figure: Capital
Expenditures by
Selected
Telecommunications
Service Providers:
Annual averages
Billions of dollars, ratio scale

Period Expenditures
2002

43.39

2003

34.95

2004

35.55

2005

39.78

2006

43.80

2007

42.41

As shown in the figure, the annual averages for 2000 and 2001 are approximately 66 and 65, respectively. 2008 guidance is about 42.
Note. FRB seasonals. Includes AT&T, Verizon, Sprint Nextel, and companies related by merger, acquisition, or spinoff.
Source. SEC filings. Guidance from Dell'Oro.

Figure: Rate of Change in
Semiconductor Industrial Production
Percent

Period

MPUs Non-MPUs

January 2002

5.86

0.81

February 2002

6.31

0.57

March 2002

4.41

1.27

April 2002

2.89

3.24

May 2002

4.28

4.95

June 2002

6.31

5.51

July 2002

6.06

4.75

August 2002

3.77

2.95

September 2002

2.51

1.40

October 2002

4.35

0.63

November 2002

7.44

0.61

December 2002

8.71

0.82

January 2003

8.51

1.29

February 2003

8.42

2.36

March 2003

8.01

2.89

April 2003

6.78

2.50

May 2003

6.16

1.86

June 2003

7.63

1.50

July 2003

8.26

1.39

August 2003

4.85

1.48

September 2003

0.78

2.48

-0.42

3.68

November 2003

1.10

3.74

December 2003

1.98

3.06

January 2004

0.53

2.53

February 2004

0.48

2.27

March 2004

2.35

2.13

April 2004

2.89

2.32

May 2004

1.58

2.99

June 2004

-0.05

2.97

July 2004

0.48

1.94

August 2004

3.39

1.36

September 2004

5.49

1.85

October 2004

4.59

3.03

November 2004

1.21

3.81

December 2004

-1.48

3.78

January 2005

-0.99

3.70

February 2005

0.06

3.62

March 2005

0.78

3.17

April 2005

1.69

2.25

May 2005

1.28

1.44

June 2005

-0.13

1.57

July 2005

-1.00

2.24

August 2005

1.74

2.79

September 2005

6.00

2.73

October 2005

6.37

1.94

November 2005

3.59

1.00

December 2005

1.19

0.40

January 2006

1.99

0.23

February 2006

4.36

-0.13

March 2006

3.75

-0.80

April 2006

1.12

-1.16

May 2006

0.40

-0.95

June 2006

1.59

-0.28

October 2003

July 2006

2.83

0.65

August 2006

3.37

1.59

September 2006

3.58

2.09

October 2006

4.43

2.04

November 2006

4.94

1.96

December 2006

4.45

1.85

January 2007

2.00

1.43

February 2007

-0.41

1.25

March 2007

1.29

1.48

April 2007

5.10

1.33

May 2007

5.94

0.88

June 2007

6.07

1.32

July 2007

6.56

2.72

August 2007

4.76

3.12

September 2007

2.62

2.07

October 2007

2.43

2.17

November 2007

4.51

2.45

December 2007

3.47

2.91

January 2008

0.77

1.16

February 2008

2.22

0.06

March 2008

4.74

-0.19

April 2008

5.42

0.36

May 2008

4.78

0.82

Note. 3-month moving average. MPU is a microprocessor unit.

Figure: FRB Chip
Inventory Index
1995 = 100

Period

Index

2002:Q1 104.28
2002:Q2 105.95
2002:Q3 111.38
2002:Q4 110.10
2003:Q1 102.37
2003:Q2

99.36

2003:Q3

95.27

2003:Q4

93.48

2004:Q1

95.65

2004:Q2

98.45

2004:Q3 108.88
2004:Q4 108.79
2005:Q1 105.46
2005:Q2 102.95
2005:Q3

98.89

2005:Q4 101.62
2006:Q1 104.12
2006:Q2 110.73
2006:Q3 114.81
2006:Q4 120.94
2007:Q1 125.90

2007:Q2 119.39
2007:Q3 116.80
2007:Q4 116.99
2008:Q1 117.83
As shown in the figure, the series begins at about 96 in 1995:Q1, decreases to about 94 in 1995:Q2, increases to about 110 in 1996:Q2, decreases to about 80 in 1997:Q1, and increases to
about 100 in 1998:Q1. It decreases to about 65 in 2000:Q2, increases to about 125 in 2001:Q2, and then decreases to about 106 by 2001:Q4.
Note. The staff's chip inventory index is a sales-weighted chain-type index constructed from financial data for 10 major chip manufacturers.
Source. Financial reports.

Figure: Circuit Board Orders and Shipments
A line chart shows two series, "Shipments", and "Orders" from 2002, through April 2008. Unit is billions of dollars.

The "Shipments" series begins at about $119.9 billion in 2002, increases to about 130 in 2002:Q2, it generally decreases to about 91 in 2003:Q1, and generally
increases to about 135 in 2004:Q2. It then decreases to about 122 in 2004:Q4, generally increases to about 147 in 2006:Q2, generally decreases to about 125 in
2007:Q1, then it fluctuates and generally increases to end at about 142 in April 2008.

The "Orders" series begins at about $125 billion in 2002, increases to about 131 in 2002:Q2, it generally decreases to about 89 in 2003:Q2, and generally
increases to about 170 in 2004:Q2. It then generally decreases to about 95 in 2004:Q4, generally increases to about 177 in 2005:Q3, generally decreases to about
122 in 2006:Q4, then it fluctuates and generally increases to end at about 140 in April 2008.
Note. U.S. and Canadian shipments of bare and loaded circuit boards.
Source. Institute for Printed Circuits.

Indicators of Industrial Activity
Figure: Manufacturing IP Diffusion Index
A line chart shows a single series, from 2002 through May 2008. Unit is an index.

The series begins at about 50.1 in 2002, generally increases to about 67 in 2002:Q2, it generally decreases to about 42 in 2003:Q2, and generally increases to
about 66 in 2003:Q4. It then fluctuates between about 48 and 64 and decreases to about 36 in 2006:Q4. The series generally increases to about 64 in 2007:Q2, it
generally decreases to about 37 in 2008:Q2 and increases to end at about 47 in May 2008.
Note. The diffusion index equals the percentage of series that increased over 3 months plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged.

Figure: Motor Vehicle Assemblies
A line chart shows two series, "Autos and light trucks (right scale)", and "Medium and heavy trucks (left scale)" from 2002 through June 2008. The left scale ranges
from 0.1 to 0.6 and the right scale ranges from 7.5 to 13.5; unit is millions of units.

The "Autos and light trucks" series begins at about 11.6 million units in 2002, generally increases to about 12.7 in 2002:Q3, it then fluctuates and generally
decreases to about end at about 8.4 in 2008:Q2.

The "Medium and heavy trucks" series begins at about 0.22 million units in 2002, increases to about 0.29 in 2002:Q3, decreases to about 0.21 in 2003:Q1, and
generally increases to peak at about 0.54 in 2006:Q3. It then generally decreases and ends at about 0.22 in June 2008.
Note. June values are based on latest industry schedules.

Figure: Trade shares
A line chart shows two series, "Imports/domestic absorption (right scale)", and "Exports/shipments (left scale)" from 2002 through April 2008. The right scale ranges
from 22 to 30 and the left scale ranges from 15 to 22. Unit is percent.

The "Imports/domestic absorption" series begins at about 22.7 percent in 2002, generally increases to about 28.5 in 2007:Q4, decreases to about 27.9 in 2008:Q1,
and increases to end at about 28.2 in April 2008.

The "Exports/shipments" series begins at about 15.8 percent in 2002, and generally increases to end at about 21 in April 2008.
Note. Trade shares are 3-month moving averages.
Source. Department of Commerce.

Figure: IP: Construction Supplies and Durable Materials
A line chart shows two series, "Durable materials", and "Construction supplies" from 2002 through May 2008. Unit is 2002 = 100, ratio scale.

The "Durable materials" series begins at about 98.5 in 2002, generally increases to about 101 in 2002:Q2, it generally decreases to about 98 in 2003:Q2, and
generally increases to about 110.5 in 2006:Q1. It then generally decreases to about 105 in 2007:Q1, increases to about 107 in 2007:Q3, and generally decreases
to end at about 99.5 in May 2008.

The "Construction supplies" series begins at about 97.5 in 2002, generally increases to about 101.5 in 2002:Q3, it generally decreases to about 98 in 2003:Q3, and
generally increases to about 111 in 2006:Q3. It then decreases to about 107.9 in 2006:Q4, increases to about 111 in 2007:Q3, and generally decreases to end at
about 109 in May 2008.
Note. Data exclude motor vehicle parts, high-tech, and aircraft parts industries.

Figure: New Orders: ISM Survey and Change in Real Adjusted Durable Goods Orders
A line chart shows two series, "ISM (right scale)", and "RADGO (left scale)", from 2002 through May 2008. The left scale ranges from -2 to 4; unit is percent. The
right scale ranges from 30 to 80; unit is diffusion index.

The ISM series begins at about 55 in 2002, increases to about 64 shortly after, generally decreases to about 47.5 in 2003:Q1, and generally increases to about 71
in 2003:Q4. It then fluctuates and generally decreases, and ends at about 49.9 in May 2008.

The RADGO series begins at about -1.1 percent in 2002, generally increases to about 2.5 in 2003:Q4, decreases to about -2.2 in 2004:Q1, and generally
increases to about 2.2 in 2005. It decreases to about -0.6 in 2005:Q2, increases to about 2.2 shortly after, and generally decreases to about -1.5 in 2007:Q1. The
series fluctuates between about -1.1 and 1.1 through 2007 and then increases to end at about 0.7 in April 2008.
Note. The measure for real adjusted durable goods orders (RADGO) is a 3-month moving average. The diffusion index equals the percentage of respondents reporting greater levels of new
orders plus one-half the percentage of respondents reporting that new orders were unchanged.

Figure: New Orders Diffusion Indexes: Empire State and Average of Regional Surveys
A line chart shows two series, "Empire State", and "Regional average" from 2002 through June 2008. Unit is diffusion index.

The "Empire State" series begins at about 55.1 in 2002, generally decreases to about 46 in 2003:Q2, then generally increases to about 70 in 2004:Q2, and
generally decreases to about 48 in 2005:Q2. It generally increases to about 66 in 2005:Q3, then generally decreases to about 52.5 in 2007:Q1, and generally
increases to about 62.5 in 2007:Q3. The series generally decreases to about 45 in 2008:Q1, increases to about 50 in 2008:Q2, and decreases to end at about 47.5
in June 2008.

The "Regional average" series begins at about 53 in 2002, generally decreases to about 46 in 2003:Q2, generally increases to about 65 in 2004, and generally
decreases to about 56 in 2005:Q2. It generally increases to about 62.5 in 2006:Q1, then generally decreases to about 51 in 2007:Q1, and generally increases to
about 57.5 in 2007:Q2. The series generally decreases to about 48 in 2008:Q1, and increases to end at about 51 in May 2008.
Note. Regional average includes new orders indexes from the Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York (Empire State), Philadelphia, and Richmond surveys.

Sales of Light Vehicles
(Millions of units at an annual rate; FRB seasonals)

2007
Category

2008

2007
Q3

Q4

Q1

16.1

15.9

16.1

15.2

15.0

14.4

14.3

Autos

7.6

7.4

7.8

7.4

7.5

7.5

8.0

Light trucks

8.5

8.5

8.3

7.8

7.5

6.9

6.2

Total

Mar.

Apr.

 

May

 

 

 

North American1

12.3

12.3

12.3

11.5

11.1

10.6

10.4

Autos

5.3

5.1

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.9

5.3

Light trucks

7.1

7.2

6.9

6.5

6.2

5.7

5.1

3.8

3.6

3.8

3.7

3.9

3.8

3.8

Autos

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.7

Light trucks

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

51.2

50.4

50.4

50.1

48.2

47.2

44.1

 

 

Foreign-produced

Memo:
Detroit Three domestic market
     share (percent) 2

Note. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.
1. Excludes some vehicles produced in Canada that are classified as imports by the industry.  Return to table
2. Domestic market share excludes sales of foreign brands affiliated with the Detroit Three.  Return to table

[Content redacted.]

[Content redacted.]

Figure: Market Share of Light Vehicles by Segment
Percent

Period

Large and midsize cars Pickup/van/SUV Small cars Cross utility

January 2006

34.70

37.82

14.03

13.42

February 2006

32.58

39.62

13.29

14.48

March 2006

31.81

40.61

13.86

13.67

April 2006

32.10

37.52

16.06

14.28

May 2006

31.62

37.96

16.88

13.49

June 2006

31.46

38.42

16.32

13.76

July 2006

30.88

37.36

16.91

14.82

August 2006

31.52

37.48

16.58

14.38

September 2006

31.25

39.26

15.30

14.14

October 2006

32.08

39.63

14.05

14.20

November 2006

32.18

38.30

14.40

15.08

December 2006

34.06

36.82

14.31

14.73

January 2007

31.96

37.74

14.65

15.62

February 2007

31.29

37.64

14.25

16.79

March 2007

31.70

36.36

15.13

16.77

April 2007

30.44

36.87

15.27

17.38

May 2007

31.41

33.98

18.07

16.51

June 2007

31.59

33.44

17.50

17.42

July 2007

30.93

35.12

16.55

17.37

August 2007

29.98

36.94

15.50

17.55

September 2007

30.97

36.30

15.44

17.23

October 2007

31.34

35.37

15.74

17.50

November 2007

34.24

32.83

15.39

17.50

December 2007

33.71

33.18

15.14

17.91

January 2008

31.61

33.14

16.23

18.99

February 2008

32.05

33.09

16.02

18.81

March 2008

32.82

31.11

17.33

18.71

April 2008

32.67

29.45

19.32

18.53

May 2008

31.89

25.94

24.35

17.78

Note. Data through May. FRB seasonals.

Figure: Car-Buying Attitudes
Period

Appraisal of car-buying conditions (Index) Bad time to buy: Gas prices and shortages (Percent)

January 2002

156

0

February 2002

156

1

March 2002

149

1

April 2002

148

2

May 2002

151

1

June 2002

149

1

July 2002

155

0

August 2002

152

0

September 2002

158

1

October 2002

156

2

November 2002

153

1

December 2002

155

1

January 2003

152

2

February 2003

140

7

March 2003

141

8

April 2003

149

4

May 2003

160

2

June 2003

157

0

July 2003

160

1

August 2003

150

1

September 2003

152

2

October 2003

155

2

November 2003

161

1

December 2003

157

0

January 2004

161

1

February 2004

150

1

March 2004

153

4

April 2004

147

7

May 2004

144

8

June 2004

144

15

July 2004

142

7

August 2004

144

9

September 2004

148

6

October 2004

152

5

November 2004

138

8

December 2004

154

2

January 2005

147

1

February 2005

144

3

March 2005

130

11

April 2005

128

18

May 2005

133

16

June 2005

139

10

July 2005

152

9

August 2005

147

8

September 2005

125

20

October 2005

119

23

November 2005

125

15

December 2005

135

9

January 2006

137

10

February 2006

134

9

March 2006

138

9

April 2006

132

15

May 2006

112

25

June 2006

124

15

July 2006

130

13

August 2006

124

17

September 2006

128

14

October 2006

137

9

November 2006

140

7

December 2006

140

5

January 2007

136

6

February 2007

133

6

March 2007

138

6

April 2007

132

9

May 2007

124

15

June 2007

118

18

July 2007

125

14

August 2007

133

9

September 2007

139

7

October 2007

128

5

November 2007

117

9

December 2007

117

13

January 2008

119

9

February 2008

119

8

March 2008

114

13

April 2008

110

14

May 2008

96

22

As shown in the figure, "Appraisal of car-buying conditions" ends at about 90 in June 2008, and "Bad time to buy: Gas prices and shortages" ends at about 26 in June 2008.
Source. Reuters/University of Michigan Survey.

Retail and Food Services Sales
(Percent change from preceding period; seasonally adjusted current dollars)

2007
Category

Q3

2008
Q4

Q1

Mar.

Annual rate
Total sales
Retail control

2.1
1

Ex. sales at gasoline stations

4.1

Apr.

May

Monthly rate
.8

.5

.4

1.0

3.5

6.4

4.6

.9

.8

1.1

4.7

1.8

2.4

.6

1.0

.8

4.1

1.0

.0

.7

.6

.5

Memo:
Real PCE control 2

1. Total sales less outlays at building material and supply stores and automobile and other motor vehicle dealers.  Return to table
2. Total goods spending excluding autos and trucks. The values for March, April, and Q1 are staff estimates. The value for May is a staff forecast.  Return to table

Figure: Change in Real PCE Goods
Percent

Period

1-month 6-month

January 2004

0.96

0.37

February 2004

-0.31

0.01

March 2004

1.39

0.42

April 2004

-0.73

0.33

May 2004

1.28

0.33

June 2004

-1.58

0.17

July 2004

1.37

0.24

-0.16

0.26

September 2004

1.42

0.27

October 2004

0.10

0.41

November 2004

0.06

0.20

December 2004

0.93

0.62

January 2005

-0.24

0.35

February 2005

0.70

0.49

-0.27

0.21

April 2005

1.75

0.49

May 2005

-1.43

0.24

June 2005

1.79

0.38

July 2005

1.37

0.65

August 2005

-1.32

0.32

September 2005

-0.93

0.21

October 2005

0.43

-0.01

November 2005

0.45

0.30

December 2005

0.48

0.08

January 2006

1.62

0.12

February 2006

August 2004

March 2005

-0.32

0.29

March 2006

0.04

0.45

April 2006

0.71

0.50

May 2006

-0.30

0.37

June 2006

0.12

0.31

July 2006

1.26

0.25

-0.56

0.21

September 2006

0.30

0.25

October 2006

0.38

0.20

November 2006

0.37

0.31

December 2006

1.17

0.49

January 2007

0.27

0.32

February 2007

-0.13

0.39

August 2006

March 2007

0.16

0.37

April 2007

-0.32

0.25

May 2007

0.70

0.31

June 2007

-0.52

0.03

July 2007

0.32

0.04

August 2007

0.40

0.12

September 2007

0.68

0.21

October 2007

0.02

0.27

November 2007

-0.14

0.13

December 2007

-0.48

0.13

January 2008

-0.11

0.06

February 2008

-0.05

-0.01

March 2008

0.39

-0.06

April 2008

0.31

-0.01

As shown in the figure, the 1-month series ends at about 0.35 percent in May 2008, and the 6-month series ends at about 0.05 percent in May 2008.
Note. The values for March and April are staff estimates. The value for May is a staff forecast.

Figure: Change in Real PCE Services
Percent

Period

1-month 6-month

January 2004

0.633

0.318

February 2004

0.091

0.281

March 2004

-0.211

0.257

April 2004

0.627

0.320

May 2004

0.394

0.320

June 2004

-0.108

0.238

July 2004

0.377

0.195

August 2004

0.291

0.228

September 2004

0.243

0.304

October 2004

0.257

0.242

November 2004

0.292

0.225

December 2004

0.352

0.302

January 2005

0.037

0.245

February 2005

0.028

0.202

March 2005

0.224

0.198

April 2005

-0.224

0.118

May 2005

0.528

0.158

June 2005

0.511

0.184

July 2005

0.263

0.222

August 2005

0.313

0.269

September 2005

0.279

0.278

-0.007

0.314

November 2005

0.319

0.280

December 2005

0.426

0.265

January 2006

-0.504

0.137

February 2006

0.936

0.241

March 2006

0.057

0.204

April 2006

-0.009

0.204

May 2006

0.433

0.223

June 2006

0.150

0.177

July 2006

0.202

0.295

October 2005

August 2006

-0.005

0.138

September 2006

0.154

0.154

October 2006

0.698

0.272

November 2006

0.147

0.224

December 2006

0.042

0.206

January 2007

0.470

0.251

February 2007
March 2007

0.558

0.345

-0.460

0.242

April 2007

0.765

0.254

May 2007

-0.356

0.170

June 2007

0.475

0.242

July 2007

0.224

0.201

August 2007

0.469

0.186

September 2007

-0.094

0.247

October 2007

0.100

0.136

November 2007

0.643

0.303

December 2007

0.238

0.263

January 2008

0.364

0.286

February 2008

-0.067

0.197

March 2008

0.148

0.238

April 2008

0.093

0.236

Figure: Personal Saving
Rate
Period

Percent

January 1996

4.21

February 1996

4.31

March 1996

4.21

April 1996

3.12

May 1996

4.14

June 1996

4.55

July 1996

4.11

August 1996

4.05

September 1996

4.15

October 1996

3.81

November 1996

3.78

December 1996

3.76

January 1997

3.66

February 1997

3.54

March 1997

3.71

April 1997

3.76

May 1997

4.02

June 1997

3.87

July 1997

3.28

August 1997

3.33

September 1997

3.59

October 1997

3.51

November 1997

3.71

December 1997

3.77

January 1998

4.63

February 1998

4.62

March 1998

4.73

April 1998

4.71

May 1998

4.39

June 1998

4.37

July 1998

4.49

August 1998

4.35

September 1998

4.21

October 1998

3.94

November 1998

4.01

December 1998

3.53

January 1999

3.96

February 1999

3.71

March 1999

3.29

April 1999

2.47

May 1999

2.14

June 1999

2.13

July 1999

1.92

August 1999

1.85

September 1999

1.38

October 1999

1.97

November 1999

2.11

December 1999

1.61

January 2000

2.86

February 2000

2.38

March 2000

2.05

April 2000

2.36

May 2000

2.37

June 2000

2.47

July 2000

2.86

August 2000

2.83

September 2000

2.16

October 2000

2.28

November 2000

2.05

December 2000

1.46

January 2001

1.93

February 2001

1.70

March 2001

2.00

April 2001

1.56

May 2001

0.97

June 2001

1.06

July 2001

2.43

August 2001

3.70

September 2001
October 2001

4.15
-0.18

November 2001

0.67

December 2001

1.13

January 2002

2.92

February 2002

2.76

March 2002

3.04

April 2002

2.55

May 2002

3.14

June 2002

2.77

July 2002

1.93

August 2002

1.73

September 2002

2.20

October 2002

1.99

November 2002

1.82

December 2002

1.49

January 2003

1.83

February 2003

2.03

March 2003

1.75

April 2003

2.01

May 2003

2.34

June 2003

2.10

July 2003

2.83

August 2003

2.47

September 2003

1.74

October 2003

2.07

November 2003

2.15

December 2003

2.35

January 2004

1.94

February 2004

2.24

March 2004

2.01

April 2004

2.17

May 2004

1.59

June 2004

2.25

July 2004

1.75

August 2004

2.20

September 2004

1.40

October 2004

1.55

November 2004

1.38

December 2004

1.31

January 2005

1.15

February 2005

0.94

March 2005

0.90

April 2005

0.62

May 2005

1.06

June 2005

0.57

July 2005
August 2005

0.19
-2.31

September 2005

0.47

October 2005

0.47

November 2005

0.81

December 2005

0.99

January 2006

1.07

February 2006

0.82

March 2006

0.79

April 2006

0.41

May 2006

0.06

June 2006

0.47

July 2006

-0.35

August 2006

-0.05

September 2006

0.35

October 2006

0.44

November 2006

0.49

December 2006

0.35

January 2007

0.56

February 2007

0.85

March 2007

1.48

April 2007

0.44

May 2007

0.19

June 2007

0.28

July 2007

0.45

August 2007

0.48

September 2007

0.38

October 2007

0.45

November 2007

-0.10

December 2007

0.21

January 2008

0.26

February 2008

0.74

March 2008

0.75

April 2008

0.71

Note. Value for December 2004 excludes the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in that month.

Fundamentals of Household Spending
Figure: Changes in Wages and Salaries and in Disposable Income
Percent, annual rate

Period

Nominal wage and salary disbursements Nominal DPI Real DPI

2007:Q4

5.48

4.89

0.91

2008:Q1

5.80

5.27

1.76

February 2008

4.48

6.05

4.30

5.67

4.12

0.37

-2.59

2.70

-0.13

March 2008
April 2008

Figure: Changes in Real DPI
A line chart shows a single series, from 1997 through April 2008. Unit is 12-month percent change.

The series begins at about 3.5 percent in 1997, generally increases to about 6.5 in 1998, fluctuates widely between about 0.5 and 6 and decreases to about -1 in
2005. It then generally increases to about 5 in 2006, generally decreases to about 1 in early 2008, and increases to end at about 1.8 in April 2008.
Note. Values for December 2004 and December 2005 exclude the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in December 2004.

Figure:
Household Net
Worth and
Wilshire 5000:
Ratio of
household net
worth to DPI*
Period

Ratio

1998:Q1 5.730
1998:Q2 5.740
1998:Q3 5.442

1998:Q4 5.744
1999:Q1 5.804
1999:Q2 5.955
1999:Q3 5.811
1999:Q4 6.214
2000:Q1 6.155
2000:Q2 6.012
2000:Q3 5.920
2000:Q4 5.707
2001:Q1 5.425
2001:Q2 5.558
2001:Q3 5.143
2001:Q4 5.411
2002:Q1 5.301
2002:Q2 5.057
2002:Q3 4.842
2002:Q4 4.968
2003:Q1 4.921
2003:Q2 5.092
2003:Q3 5.096
2003:Q4 5.319
2004:Q1 5.314
2004:Q2 5.321
2004:Q3 5.295
2004:Q4 5.466
2005:Q1 5.445
2005:Q2 5.473
2005:Q3 5.565
2005:Q4 5.574
2006:Q1 5.638
2006:Q2 5.586
2006:Q3 5.624
2006:Q4 5.694
2007:Q1 5.648
2007:Q2 5.708
2007:Q3 5.691
2007:Q4 5.560
2008:Q1 5.327
* The value for 2004:Q4 excludes the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in December 2004.  Return to table

Figure: Household Net
Worth and Wilshire 5000:
Wilshire 5000
Period
January 1998

Index
9340.80

February 1998

10006.44

March 1998

10494.72

April 1998

10609.61

May 1998

10341.47

June 1998

10663.62

July 1998

10420.26

August 1998

8785.71

September 1998

9346.81

October 1998

10032.19

November 1998

10650.20

December 1998

11317.59

January 1999

11724.83

February 1999

11286.08

March 1999

11707.67

April 1999

12259.36

May 1999

11976.75

June 1999

12583.60

July 1999

12189.84

August 1999

12042.23

September 1999 11713.80
October 1999

12449.40

November 1999

12851.93

December 1999

13812.67

January 2000

13230.62

February 2000

13511.00

March 2000

14296.18

April 2000

13541.70

May 2000

13052.96

June 2000

13618.50

July 2000

13330.31

August 2000

14280.04

September 2000 13613.01
October 2000

13314.68

November 2000

11976.24

December 2000

12175.88

January 2001

12631.36

February 2001

11425.29

March 2001

10645.85

April 2001

11512.46

May 2001

11610.22

June 2001

11407.15

July 2001

11208.51

August 2001

10515.09

September 2001

9562.93

October 2001

9796.86

November 2001

10531.45

December 2001

10707.68

January 2002

10564.72

February 2002

10332.89

March 2002

10775.74

April 2002

10241.18

May 2002

10106.49

June 2002

9384.03

July 2002

8616.94

August 2002

8654.04

September 2002

7773.63

October 2002

8357.32

November 2002

8846.71

December 2002

8343.19

January 2003

8125.07

February 2003

7972.60

March 2003

8051.86

April 2003

8701.97

May 2003

9218.89

June 2003

9342.95

July 2003

9555.19

August 2003

9770.56

September 2003

9649.68

October 2003

10224.52

November 2003

10352.22

December 2003

10799.63

January 2004

11029.20

February 2004

11172.89

March 2004

11039.42

April 2004

10793.66

May 2004

10926.36

June 2004

11138.91

July 2004

10701.65

August 2004

10719.15

September 2004 10895.48
October 2004

11068.95

November 2004

11568.54

December 2004

11971.14

January 2005

11642.57

February 2005

11863.48

March 2005

11638.27

April 2005

11363.52

May 2005

11787.81

June 2005

11876.74

July 2005

12360.81

August 2005

12217.13

September 2005 12289.26
October 2005

12063.24

November 2005

12521.92

December 2005

12517.69

January 2006

12953.63

February 2006

12922.27

March 2006

13155.44

April 2006

13280.93

May 2006

12841.69

June 2006

12849.29

July 2006

12789.67

August 2006

13062.54

September 2006 13345.97
October 2006

13829.07

November 2006

14116.71

December 2006

14257.55

January 2007

14531.92

February 2007

14271.61

March 2007

14409.27

April 2007

14952.35

May 2007

15462.16

June 2007

15210.65

July 2007

14682.66

August 2007

14847.70

September 2007 15362.02
October 2007

15673.36

November 2007

14932.67

December 2007

14819.58

January 2008

13896.65

February 2008

13455.96

March 2008

13332.01

April 2008

13991.12

May 2008

14260.76

June 2008

13709.07

Figure: Target Federal Funds Rate and 10-Year
Treasury Yield
Percent

Period

Federal funds rate Treasury yield

January 1998

5.50

5.53

February 1998

5.50

5.62

March 1998

5.50

5.67

April 1998

5.50

5.68

May 1998

5.50

5.56

June 1998

5.50

5.44

July 1998

5.50

5.50

August 1998

5.50

5.05

September 1998

5.25

4.44

October 1998

5.00

4.64

November 1998

4.75

4.74

December 1998

4.75

4.65

January 1999

4.75

4.66

February 1999

4.75

5.29

March 1999

4.75

5.25

April 1999

4.75

5.36

May 1999

4.75

5.64

June 1999

5.00

5.81

July 1999

5.00

5.92

August 1999

5.25

5.98

September 1999

5.25

5.90

October 1999

5.25

6.02

November 1999

5.50

6.18

December 1999

5.50

6.45

January 2000

5.50

6.68

February 2000

5.75

6.42

March 2000

6.00

6.03

April 2000

6.00

6.23

May 2000

6.50

6.29

June 2000

6.50

6.03

July 2000

6.50

6.04

August 2000

6.50

5.73

September 2000

6.50

5.80

October 2000

6.50

5.77

November 2000

6.50

5.48

December 2000

6.50

5.12

January 2001

5.50

5.19

February 2001

5.50

4.92

March 2001

5.00

4.93

April 2001

4.50

5.35

May 2001

4.00

5.43

June 2001

3.75

5.42

July 2001

3.75

5.07

August 2001

3.50

4.85

September 2001

3.00

4.60

October 2001

2.50

4.30

November 2001

2.00

4.78

December 2001

1.75

5.07

January 2002

1.75

5.07

February 2002

1.75

4.88

March 2002

1.75

5.42

April 2002

1.75

5.11

May 2002

1.75

5.08

June 2002

1.75

4.86

July 2002

1.75

4.51

August 2002

1.75

4.14

September 2002

1.75

3.63

October 2002

1.75

3.93

November 2002

1.25

4.22

December 2002

1.25

3.83

January 2003

1.25

4.00

February 2003

1.25

3.71

March 2003

1.25

3.83

April 2003

1.25

3.89

May 2003

1.25

3.37

June 2003

1.00

3.54

July 2003

1.00

4.49

August 2003

1.00

4.45

September 2003

1.00

3.96

October 2003

1.00

4.33

November 2003

1.00

4.34

December 2003

1.00

4.27

January 2004

1.00

4.16

February 2004

1.00

3.99

March 2004

1.00

3.86

April 2004

1.00

4.53

May 2004

1.00

4.66

June 2004

1.25

4.62

July 2004

1.25

4.50

August 2004

1.50

4.13

September 2004

1.75

4.14

October 2004

1.75

4.05

November 2004

2.00

4.36

December 2004

2.25

4.24

January 2005

2.25

4.14

February 2005

2.50

4.36

March 2005

2.75

4.50

April 2005

2.75

4.21

May 2005

3.00

4.00

June 2005

3.25

3.94

July 2005

3.25

4.28

August 2005

3.50

4.02

September 2005

3.75

4.34

October 2005

3.75

4.57

November 2005

4.00

4.49

December 2005

4.25

4.39

January 2006

4.50

4.53

February 2006

4.50

4.55

March 2006

4.75

4.86

April 2006

4.75

5.07

May 2006

5.00

5.12

June 2006

5.25

5.15

July 2006

5.25

4.99

August 2006

5.25

4.74

September 2006

5.25

4.64

October 2006

5.25

4.61

November 2006

5.25

4.46

December 2006

5.25

4.71

January 2007

5.25

4.83

February 2007

5.25

4.56

March 2007

5.25

4.65

April 2007

5.25

4.63

May 2007

5.25

4.90

June 2007

5.25

5.03

July 2007

5.25

4.78

August 2007

5.25

4.54

September 2007

4.75

4.59

October 2007

4.50

4.48

November 2007

4.50

3.97

December 2007

4.25

4.04

January 2008

3.00

3.67

February 2008

3.00

3.53

March 2008

2.25

3.45

April 2008

2.00

3.77

May 2008

2.00

4.06

17 June 2008

2.00

4.16

Figure: Consumer Confidence
Period

Reuters/Michigan (1966 = 100) Conference Board (1985 = 100)

January 1990

93.0

106.5

February 1990

89.5

106.7

March 1990

91.3

110.6

April 1990

93.9

107.3

May 1990

90.6

107.3

June 1990

88.3

102.4

July 1990

88.2

101.7

August 1990

76.4

84.7

September 1990

72.8

85.6

October 1990

63.9

62.6

November 1990

66.0

61.7

December 1990

65.5

61.2

January 1991

66.8

55.1

February 1991

70.4

59.4

March 1991

87.7

81.1

April 1991

81.8

79.4

May 1991

78.3

76.4

June 1991

82.1

78.0

July 1991

82.9

77.7

August 1991

82.0

76.1

September 1991

83.0

72.9

October 1991

78.3

60.1

November 1991

69.1

52.7

December 1991

68.2

52.5

January 1992

67.5

50.2

February 1992

68.8

47.3

March 1992

76.0

56.5

April 1992

77.2

65.1

May 1992

79.2

71.9

June 1992

80.4

72.6

July 1992

76.6

61.2

August 1992

76.1

59.0

September 1992

75.6

57.3

October 1992

73.3

54.6

November 1992

85.3

65.6

December 1992

91.0

78.1

January 1993

89.3

76.7

February 1993

86.6

68.5

March 1993

85.9

63.2

April 1993

85.6

67.6

May 1993

80.3

61.9

June 1993

81.5

58.6

July 1993

77.0

59.2

August 1993

77.3

59.3

September 1993

77.9

63.8

October 1993

82.7

60.5

November 1993

81.2

71.9

December 1993

88.2

79.8

January 1994

94.3

82.6

February 1994

93.2

79.9

March 1994

91.5

86.7

April 1994

92.6

92.1

May 1994

92.8

88.9

June 1994

91.2

92.5

July 1994

89.0

91.3

August 1994

91.7

90.4

September 1994

91.5

89.5

October 1994

92.7

89.1

November 1994

91.6

100.4

December 1994

95.1

103.4

January 1995

97.6

101.4

February 1995

95.1

99.4

March 1995

90.3

100.2

April 1995

92.5

104.6

May 1995

89.8

102.0

June 1995

92.7

94.6

July 1995

94.4

101.4

August 1995

96.2

102.4

September 1995

88.9

97.3

October 1995

90.2

96.3

November 1995

88.2

101.6

December 1995

91.0

99.2

January 1996

89.3

88.4

February 1996

88.5

98.0

March 1996

93.7

98.4

April 1996

92.7

104.8

May 1996

89.4

103.5

June 1996

92.4

100.1

July 1996

94.7

107.0

August 1996

95.3

112.0

September 1996

94.7

111.8

October 1996

96.5

107.3

November 1996

99.2

109.5

December 1996

96.9

114.2

January 1997

97.4

118.7

February 1997

99.7

118.9

March 1997

100.0

118.5

April 1997

101.4

118.5

May 1997

103.2

127.9

June 1997

104.5

129.9

July 1997

107.1

126.3

August 1997

104.4

127.6

September 1997

106.0

130.2

October 1997

105.6

123.4

November 1997

107.2

128.1

December 1997

102.1

136.2

January 1998

106.6

128.3

February 1998

110.4

137.4

March 1998

106.5

133.8

April 1998

108.7

137.2

May 1998

106.5

136.3

June 1998

105.6

138.2

July 1998

105.2

137.2

August 1998

104.4

133.1

September 1998

100.9

126.4

97.4

119.3

November 1998

102.7

126.4

December 1998

100.5

126.7

January 1999

103.9

128.9

February 1999

108.1

133.1

March 1999

105.7

134.0

April 1999

104.6

135.5

May 1999

106.8

137.7

June 1999

107.3

139.0

July 1999

106.0

136.2

August 1999

104.5

136.0

September 1999

107.2

134.2

October 1999

103.2

130.5

November 1999

107.2

137.0

December 1999

105.4

141.7

January 2000

112.0

144.7

February 2000

111.3

140.8

March 2000

107.1

137.1

April 2000

109.2

137.7

May 2000

110.7

144.7

June 2000

106.4

139.2

July 2000

108.3

143.0

August 2000

107.3

140.8

September 2000

106.8

142.5

October 2000

105.8

135.8

November 2000

107.6

132.6

December 2000

98.4

128.6

January 2001

94.7

115.7

February 2001

90.6

109.2

March 2001

91.5

116.9

April 2001

88.4

109.9

May 2001

92.0

116.1

June 2001

92.6

118.9

July 2001

92.4

116.3

October 1998

August 2001

91.5

114.0

September 2001

81.8

97.0

October 2001

82.7

85.3

November 2001

83.9

84.9

December 2001

88.8

94.6

January 2002

93.0

97.8

February 2002

90.7

95.0

March 2002

95.7

110.7

April 2002

93.0

108.5

May 2002

96.9

110.3

June 2002

92.4

106.3

July 2002

88.1

97.4

August 2002

87.6

94.5

September 2002

86.1

93.7

October 2002

80.6

79.6

November 2002

84.2

84.9

December 2002

86.7

80.7

January 2003

82.4

78.8

February 2003

79.9

64.8

March 2003

77.6

61.4

April 2003

86.0

81.0

May 2003

92.1

83.6

June 2003

89.7

83.5

July 2003

90.9

77.0

August 2003

89.3

81.7

September 2003

87.7

77.0

October 2003

89.6

81.7

November 2003

93.7

92.5

December 2003

92.6

94.8

103.8

97.7

February 2004

94.4

88.5

March 2004

95.8

88.5

April 2004

94.2

93.0

May 2004

90.2

93.1

June 2004

95.6

102.8

July 2004

96.7

105.7

August 2004

95.9

98.7

September 2004

94.2

96.7

October 2004

91.7

92.9

November 2004

92.8

92.6

December 2004

97.1

102.7

January 2005

95.5

105.1

February 2005

94.1

104.4

March 2005

92.6

103.0

April 2005

87.7

97.5

May 2005

86.9

103.1

June 2005

96.0

106.2

July 2005

96.5

103.6

August 2005

89.1

105.5

January 2004

September 2005

76.9

87.5

October 2005

74.2

85.2

November 2005

81.6

98.3

December 2005

91.5

103.8

January 2006

91.2

106.8

February 2006

86.7

102.7

March 2006

88.9

107.5

April 2006

87.4

109.8

May 2006

79.1

104.7

June 2006

84.9

105.4

July 2006

84.7

107.0

August 2006

82.0

100.2

September 2006

85.4

105.9

October 2006

93.6

105.1

November 2006

92.1

105.3

December 2006

91.7

110.0

January 2007

96.9

110.2

February 2007

91.3

111.2

March 2007

88.4

108.2

April 2007

87.1

106.3

May 2007

88.3

108.5

June 2007

85.3

105.3

July 2007

90.4

111.9

August 2007

83.4

105.6

September 2007

83.4

99.5

October 2007

80.9

95.2

November 2007

76.1

87.8

December 2007

75.5

90.6

January 2008

78.4

87.3

February 2008

70.8

76.4

March 2008

69.5

65.9

April 2008

62.6

62.8

May 2008

59.8

57.2

June 2008p

56.7

ND

Note. Shaded bars indicate periods of recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (1990:Q3-1991:Q1, and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4).
p Preliminary.  Return to table

Private Housing Activity
(Millions of units, seasonally adjusted; annual rate except as noted)

2007
Sector

2008

2007
Q3

Q4

Q1

Mar.

Apr.

May

All units
Starts

1.36

1.30

1.15

1.05

.99

1.01

.98

Permits

1.40

1.34

1.16

.99

.93

.98

.97

1.05

.99

.83

.73

.71

.68

.67

.98

.93

.76

.65

.62

.65

.62

Single-family units
Starts
Permits
1

Adjusted permits

.99

.96

.79

.67

.65

.66

.63

.109

.114

.109

.097

.097

.095

.093

.78

.73

.65

.56

.51

.53

n.a.

8.40

8.79

9.32 10.23 11.01 10.40

n.a.

Sales

4.94

4.76

4.39

4.34

n.a.

Months' supply3

8.67

9.14

9.97 10.24 10.18 10.54

n.a.

Permit backlog

2

New homes
Sales
Months' supply

3

Existing homes
4.39

4.36

Multifamily units
Starts

.309

.312

.325

.325

.277

.327

.301

Permits

.419

.403

.396

.341

.311

.333

.346

Permit backlog 2

.075

.076

.075

.067

.067

.065

.064

.096

.096

.093

.092

.091

.092

n.a.

.713

.701

.608

.560

.580

.550

n.a.

Mobile homes
Shipments
Condos and co-ops
Existing home sales

1. Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas.  Return to table
2. Number outstanding at end of period. Excludes permits that have expired or have been canceled, abandoned, or revoked. Not at an annual rate.  Return to table
3. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of seasonally adjusted inventories to seasonally adjusted sales. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of monthly figures.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.

Figure: Private Housing Starts and Permits
A line chart shows three series--"Single-family starts (right scale)", "Single-family adjusted permits (right scale)", and "Multifamily starts (left scale)"--seasonally
adjusted annual rates from 1999 through May 2008. The right scale ranges from 0.0 to 2.0 and the left scale ranges from 0.1 to 1.0. Unit is millions of units. The
"Single-family starts" and "Single-family adjusted permits" series track fairly closely throughout the period.

The "Single-family starts" and "Single-family adjusted permits" series begin at about 1.3 million units in 1999, they generally increases to about 1.85 by late 2005
and early 2006, and generally decrease to end at about 0.65 in May 2008.

The ""Multifamily starts" series begins at about 0.4 million units in 1999, fluctuates between about 0.2 and 0.5 throughout the period, and ends at about 0.3 in May
2008.
Note. Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas.

Indicators of Single-Family Housing
Figure: Existing Single-Family Home Sales
A line chart shows two series, "Existing home sales (left scale)", and "Pending home sales (right scale)" from 1999 through April 2008. The left scale ranges from
4.0 to 6.5; unit is millions of units (annual rate). The right scale ranges from 70 to 140; unit is an index (2001=100).

The "Existing home sales" series begins at about 4.7 million units in January 1999, generally increases to about 6.3 in 2005:Q3, and then generally decreases to
end at about 4.3 in April 2008.

The "Pending home sales" series begins at about 102 in 2001:Q1, increases to about 108 shortly after, generally decreases to about 90 in 2001:Q3 and generally
increases to about 127 in 2005:Q2 and Q3. It then generally decreases to about 84 in early 2008 and increases to end at about 88 in April 2008.
Source. National Association of Realtors.

Figure: New Single-Family Home Sales

A line chart shows one series, "Sales agreements (left scale)", from 1999 through April 2008. The left scale ranges from 0.3 to 1.5. Unit is millions of units (annual
rate). The "Sales agreements" series begins at about 0.87 million units in 1999, generally increases to about 1.5 in 2005:Q3, and generally decreases to end at
about 0.52 in April 2008.
Note: [redacted].
Source. [redacted] for sales agreements, Census Bureau.

Figure: New Home Sales [redacted] Months' Supply
A line chart shows one series, "Months' supply (right scale)", from 1999 through April 2008. The right scale ranges from 1 to 11; unit is months. The "Months'
supply" series begins at about 3.5 months in 1999, fluctuates between about 3.5 and 4.5 through 2005:Q3, and then generally increases to end at about 10.2 in
April 2008.
Note. [redacted]. Months' supply is calculated using the 3-month moving average of sales.
Source. [redacted] for months' supply, Census Bureau.

Figure: Mortgage Rates
A line chart shows two series, "30-year conforming FRM", and "1-year conforming ARM" from 1999 through June 2008. Unit is percent.

The "30-year conforming FRM" series begins at about 6.7 percent in 1999, generally increases to about 8.5 in 2000:Q2, it generally decreases to about 5.2 in
2003:Q2, then fluctuates between about 5.3 and 6.7 through 2007, and ends at about 6.2 in June 2008.

The "1-year conforming ARM" series begins at about 5.5 percent in 1999, generally increases to about 7.3 in 2000:Q2, and generally decreases to about 3.4 in
2004:Q1. It then generally increases to about 5.8 in 2006:Q3 and generally decreases to end at about 5.1 in June 2008.
Note. The June readings are for data through June 11, 2008.

Figure: Prices of Existing Homes
A line chart shows three series, "Quarterly OFHEO purchase-only index", "Monthly OFHEO purchase-only index", and "Case-Shiller 10-city price index" from 1999
through March 2008. Unit is percent change, annual rate. The "Quarterly OFHEO purchase-only index" and "Case-Shiller 10-city price index" series track fairly
closely throughout the period.

The "Quarterly OFHEO purchase-only index" and "Case-Shiller 10-city price index" series begin at about 6 percent in 1999, generally increase to about 10 by mid2005, and then each generally decrease to end at about -6 in 2008:Q1, and -4 in March:2008 respectively.

The "Monthly OFHEO purchase-only index" series begins at about 6 in 1999, fluctuates between about 5 and 20 through 2004: Q1, and increases to about 25 by
mid-2004. It then generally decreases to end at about -25 in March 2008.
Note. The Case-Shiller and monthly OFHEO indexes are 3-month percent changes.
Source. For purchase-only indexes, OFHEO; for Case-Shiller, Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Figure: Price of New Homes
A line chart shows a single series, "Constant quality index", from 1999 through 2008. Unit is percent change from preceding period, annual rate.

The "Constant quality index" series begins at about 1 percent in 1999, fluctuates between about 1 and 11 through 2001, decreases to about -5 in 2002:Q3, and
increases to about 17 in 2002:Q4. It then fluctuates between about 0 and 13 through 2005, generally decreases to about -5 in 2006:Q4, increases to about 15.5 in
2007:Q1, and decreases to end at about -10 in 2008:Q1.
Source. Census Bureau.

Orders and Shipments of Nondefense Capital Goods
(Percent change; seasonally adjusted current dollars)

2007
Category

Q4

2008
Q1

Feb.

Annual rate
Shipments

1.0

Mar.

Apr.

Monthly rate
-.1

-3.6

.3

1.1

Excluding aircraft

2.3

-.4

-1.3

.8

.2

Computers and peripherals

18.2

-5.8

-1.6

-1.8

-6.6

Communications equipment

-15.3

2.6

-1.4

1.1

-4.2

2.6

-.1

-1.3

1.0

1.3

All other categories
Orders
Excluding aircraft
Computers and peripherals
Communications equipment
All other categories

1.7

-5.6

1.6

1.4

-1.5

-3.2

4.7

-.9

-1.0

4.0

-6.8

-1.7

12.8

-.4

-12.5

-32.2

.6

6.8

-3.2

2.6

.7

5.7

-2.9

-.9

5.9

46.7

44.3

40.3

38.7

39.4

Memo:
Shipments of complete aircraft1

1. From Census Bureau, Current Industrial Reports; billions of dollars, annual rate.  Return to table

Figure: Communications Equipment
A line chart shows two series, "Shipments", and "Orders", from 2000 through April 2008. Unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars, ratio scale.

The Shipments series begins at about 9 in 2000, increases to about 10.50 by 2001, generally decreases to about 4.75 by late 2002, and fluctuates between 4.75
and about 6.5 through 2007. It then ends at about 6 by April 2008.

The Orders series begins at about 10 in 2000, increases to about 14 by mid-2000, decreases to about 2.5 by 2002 and then increases back to about 6.5 by late
2003. It then fluctuates between about 4.5 and 7.5 through 2007 and ends at about 6 by April 2008.
Note. Shipments and orders are deflated by a price index that is derived from the BEA's quality-adjusted price indexes and uses the PPI for communications equipment for monthly interpolation.

Figure: Non-High-Tech, Nontransportation Equipment
A line chart shows two series, "Shipments", and "Orders" from 2000:Q1 through April 2008. Unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars, ratio scale. The two series
track fairly closely throughout the period.

The Shipments series begins at about 44 in 2000, decreases to about 38 by 2002, generally increases to about 45 by 2006 and ends at about 44.5 by April 2008.

The Orders series begins at about 46 in 2000, decreases to about 36 by 2002, generally increases to about 48 by late 2006 and ends at about 46.9 by April 2008.
Note. Shipments and orders are deflated by the staff price indexes for the individual equipment types included in this category. Indexes are derived from the BEA's quality-adjusted price indexes.

Figure: Computers and Peripherals
A line chart shows two series, "Industrial production (left scale)", and "Real M3 shipments (right scale)", from 2000 through May 2008. The industrial production
curve is plotted as an index (2000 = 100) according to the left axis which ranges from 70 to 240, ratio scale. The real M3 shipments curve is plotted according to
the right axis, which ranges from 7 to 24, ratio scale; unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars.

The industrial production curve begins at about 90 in January 2000, fluctuates between about 90 and 110 through 2004. It then generally increases to end at about
209 by May 2008.

The real M3 shipments curve begins at about 9.5 in 2000 fluctuates between about 8.5 and 12 through late 2004. It then generally increases to end at about 18 by
April 2008.
Note. Ratio scales. Shipments are deflated by the staff price index for computers and peripheral equipment, which is derived from the BEA's quality-adjusted price indexes.

Figure: Medium and Heavy Trucks
A line chart shows two series, "Sales of class 4-8 trucks" and "Net new orders of class 5-8 trucks", from 2000 through May 2008. Unit is thousands of units, ratio
scale.

As shown in the figure, the "sales of class 4-8 trucks" series starts at about 515 in January 1999, generally decreases to about 285 by late 2003, and then

generally increases to about 580 by late 2006. The curve then decreases to about 325 by mid-2007, and ends at about 310 in May 2008.

As shown in the figure, the "Net new orders of class 5-8 trucks" curve starts at about 390 in January 2000, generally increases to about 520 by early 2002. It then
generally decreases to about 240 by late 2002, generally increases to about 720 in 2004, and peaks at about 930 by early 2006. The curve then generally
decreases to about 275 by early 2007, generally increases to about 400 in early 2008, and decreases to end at about 375 in May 2008.
Note. Annual rate, FRB seasonals.
Source. For sales, Ward's Communications; for orders, ACT Research.

Fundamentals of Equipment and Software Investment
Figure: Real Business Output
A line chart shows a single series from 1989:Q4 through 2008:Q1. Unit is 4-quarter percent change.

The series begins at about 2.8 percent in 1998:Q4, decreases to about -2 .1 by 1991:Q1, increases to about 5 in 1992:Q4 and fluctuates between about 2.8 and
5.5 through 2001:Q1. It then decreases to about -0.5 by 2001:Q1, increases to about 5 by 2004:Q2 and then decreases to end at about 2.9 by 2008:Q1.
Source. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure: User Cost of Capital
A line chart shows two series, "Non-high tech", and "High-tech" from 1989 through 2008:Q1. Unit is 4-quarter percent change.

The non-high tech series begins at about -3 in 1989:Q1, increases to about 11 by 1994:Q1 fluctuates between about 4.5 and -6 through 2001 and decreases to
about -9 by mid-2003. It then increases to about 2 by 2006, decreases to end at about -2 in 2007 and increases to end at about 1 in 2008:Q1.

The high-tech series begins at about -8.9 in 1989:Q1, increases to about -2.8 by 1994:Q1 fluctuates between about -3 and -13 through 2003. It then increases to
end at about -4.5 in 2008:Q1.
Source. Staff calculation.

Figure: Corporate Bond Yields
A line chart shows two series, "10-year high-yield", and "10-year BBB" from 2000 through June 17, 2008. Unit is percent.

The 10-year high-yield series begins at about 11 percent in early 2000, increases to about 13.5 by late 2000 and generally decreases to about 7.25 by 2005:Q1. It
then generally increases to about 10.5 in early 2008, and decreases to end at about 10 on June 17, 2008.

The 10-year BBB begins at about 8.25 percent in early 2000, it increases to about 9 by 2000:Q2 and generally decreases to about 5 by 2003:Q2. It then fluctuates
between about 5 and 6.5 through 2006:Q2, and increases to end at about 7.1 on June 17, 2008.
Note. Daily averages based on Merrill Lynch bond data.

Figure: Corporate Cash Flow
A line chart shows two series, "Real cash flow (left scale)", and "Ratio of cash flow to fixed investment (right scale)" from 1990 through 2008:Q1. The left scale
range is between 300 and 1700; unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars. The right scale is between 0.7 and 1.5; unit is ratio.

The "Real cash flow" series begins at about 400 in 1990 and generally increases to about 1400 in 2006, end decreases to about 1280 and then increases to end at
about 1300 in 2008:Q1.

The "Ratio of cash flow to fixed investment" series begins at about 1.01 in 1990, increases to about 1.24 by 1991, decreases to about 0.88 by 2000 and then
increases to about 1.38 by 2003. It decreases to about 1 in 2007:Q4 and then increases to end at about 1.05 in 2008:Q1.
Note. Cash flow and fixed investment for the corporate business sector.
Source. Bureau of Economic Analysis; FRB flow of funds accounts.

Figure: Surveys of Business Conditions

A line chart shows two series, "ISM", and "Philadelphia Fed" from 2000 through May 2008. Unit is diffusion index.

The ISM series begins at about 55 in 2000, decreases to about 40 by 2001:Q4, increases to about 62 by 2004:Q2, and decreases to end at about 50 in May 2008.

The Philadelphia Fed series begins at about 55 in 2000 decreases to about 32 by 2001:Q1, increases to about 68 by 2004, and decreases to end at about 42 in
May 2008.
Source. Manufacturing ISM Report on Business; Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey.

Nonresidential Construction and Indicators
(All spending series are seasonally adjusted at an annual rate; nominal CPIP deflated by BEA prices through Q4 and by staff projection thereafter)

Figure: Total Structures
A line chart shows a single series, "Total Structures" from 1999 through April 2008. Unit is Billions of chained (2000) dollars.

The series begins at about 255 in 1999, generally increases to about 289 in 2000:Q3, it generally decreases to about 200 in 2004:Q2, and then generally increases
to end at about 269 in April 2008.

Figure: Office, Commercial, and Other
A line chart shows three series, "Office", "Commercial", and "Other" from 1999 through April 2008. Unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars.

The office series begins at about 47.5 in 1999, decreases to about 42.5 in 2000:Q1, it generally increases to about 57.5 in 2000:Q4, and generally decreases to
about 26 in 2003. It then generally increases to end at about 40 in April 2008.

The commercial series begins at about 57.5 in 1999, generally increases to about 65 in 2000, generally decreases to about 50 in late 2002, fluctuates between
about 50 and 58 through 2007 and ends at about 55 in April 2008.

The other series begins at about 70 in 1999, generally decreases to about 60 in 2005, and then generally increases to end at about 85 in April 2008.
Note. Other consists of structures for religious organizations, education, lodging, amusement and recreation, transportation, and health care.

Figure: Manufacturing and Power & Communication
A line chart shows two series, "Power & communication", and "Manufacturing" from 1999 through April 2008. Unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars.

The "Power & communication" series begins at about 39 in 1999, generally increases to about 55 in 2000:Q4, decreases to about 39 in 2001:Q1, and generally
increases to about 59 in 2001:Q4. It then generally decreases to about 31 by mid-2004, and generally increases to end at about 52 in April, 2008.

The "Manufacturing" series begins at about 40 in 1999, decreases to about 32 in 2000:Q1, it generally increases to about 42 in 2001:Q1, and generally decreases
to about 18 in 2003:Q1. It then generally increases to end at about 33 in April 2008.

Figure: Architectural Billings and Nonresidential Construction Employment
A line chart shows two series, "Billings (right scale)", and "Change in employment (left scale)", from 1999 through May 2008. The right scale ranges from 35 to 60;
unit is diffusion index. The left scale ranges from -1.0 to 3.0 percent; unit is percent.

The "Billings (right scale)" series begins at about 55 in 1999, decreases to about 52.5 in 1999:Q2, increases to about 56 in 1999:Q4, and generally decreases to
about 44 in 2001:Q4. It then generally increases to about 59 in 2005:Q4, decreases to about 50 in 2006:Q3, and generally increases to about 57.5 in 2007:Q3.
The series generally decreases to end at about 42.5 in May 2008.

The "Change in employment (left scale)" series begins at about 0 in 2001:Q1, it generally decreases to about -0.8 in 2002:Q2, then generally increases to about
0.75 in 2006:Q1, and generally decreases to end at about -0.4 in May 2008.
Note. Both series are 3-month moving averages. Employment consists of industrial, commercial, and specialty trade construction.

Source. For billings, American Institute of Architects; for employment, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure: Vacancy Rates
A line chart shows three series, "Office", "Industrial", and "Retail" from 1999 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent.

The Office series begins at about 9.5 in 1999, it decreases to about 8 in 2000:Q2, increases to about 17 in 2003:Q1, and decreases to end at about 13 in
2008:Q1.

The Industrial series begins at about 7.5 1999, decreases to about 7 in 2000, increases to about 12 in 2003 and then generally decreases to end at about 10 in
2008:Q1.

The Retail series begins at about 8.8 in 1999, increases to about 10 in 2002:Q4, decreases to about 7 in 2005:Q4, and increases to end at about 9.5 in 2008:Q1.
Note. Industrial space includes both manufacturing structures and warehouses.
Source. Torto Wheaton Research.

Figure: Drilling and Mining Indicators
A line chart shows two series, "Footage drilled (left scale)", and "Drilling rigs (right scale)", from 1999 through June 2008. The left scale ranges from 0 to 30; unit is
millions of feet. The right scale ranges from 400 to 2400; unit is number.

The "Footage drilled" series begins at about 7.5 million feet in 1999, decreases to about 5.5 shortly after, generally increases to about 15 in 2001:Q2, and generally
decreases to about 11 in 2002. It then generally increases and ends at about 27.5 in April 2008.

The "Drilling rigs" series begins at about 600 in 1999, decreases to about 500 in 1999:Q2, increases to about 1250 in 2001:Q2, decreases to about 790 in
2002:Q2, and then generally increases to end at about 1900 in June 2008.
Note. The June readings for drilling rigs are based on data through June 13, 2008. Both series are seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.
Source. DOE/Baker Hughes.

Nonfarm Inventory Investment
(Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rate)

2007

2008

Measure and sector
Q3

Q4

Q1

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

26.0

-21.7

-13.6

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Motor vehicles

13.3

-25.7

-17.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Nonfarm ex. motor vehicles

12.7

4.0

3.4

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts

18.1

7.6

8.5

3.2 -41.6 e

n.a.

3.1

8.5

15.6

Real inventory investment (chained 2000 dollars)
Total nonfarm business

Manufacturing
Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts
Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts

13.9

-8.8

.5

5.7

n.a.

-.2

7.8 -24.2 e

n.a.
n.a.

82.9

1.1

7.9

-7.0

-5.1 -23.1 e

41.4

70.4

95.8

70.9

Book-value inventory investment (current dollars)
Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts

56.9

Manufacturing

16.2

34.7

60.5

38.1

61.4

-1.5

Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts

22.0

23.0

39.0

41.8

12.8

56.1

3.2

12.7

-3.7

-9.1

-17.3

28.3

Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts
n.a. Not available.
e Staff estimate of real inventory investment based on revised book-value data.  Return to table
Source. For real inventory investment, BEA; for book-value data, Census Bureau.

Figure: Inventory Ratios ex. Motor Vehicles
A line chart shows two series, "Staff flow-of-goods system", and "Census book-value data" from 2000 through May 2008. Unit is months.

The "Staff flow-of-goods system" series begins at about 1.77 months in 2000, decreases to about 1.74 in 2000:Q2, generally increases to about 1.78 in 2001:Q4
and generally decreases to about 1.58 in 2007:Q1. It then increases to end at about 1.62 in May 2008.

The "Census book-value data" series begins at about 1.35 in 2000, increases to about 1.4 in 2001, generally decreases to about 1.18 in 2005, and increases to
about 1.24 in 2006:Q4. It then decreases to end at about 1.18 in April 2008.
Note. Flow-of-goods system covers total industry ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to consumption. Census data cover manufacturing and trade ex. motor vehicles and
parts, and inventories are relative to sales.

Figure: ISM Customer Inventories: Manufacturing
A line chart shows a single series, "ISM Customer Inventories: Manufacturing", from 2000 through May 2008. Unit is an index.

The series begins at about 46 in 2000, it generally increases to about 56 in 2001:Q1, then generally decreases to about 39 in 2002:Q2, and generally increases to
about 46 in 2002:Q4. It then generally increases to about 54 in 2007:Q4, and then generally decreases to end at about 47 in May 2008.
Note. A number above 50 indicates inventories are "too high."

Federal Government Budget
(Unified basis; adjusted for payment-timing shifts and financial transactions; data from Monthly Treasury Statement)
Figure: Surplus or Deficit (-)
12-month moving sum

Period

Billions of dollars

January 1994

-260.72

February 1994

-255.48

March 1994

-243.41

April 1994

-230.42

May 1994

-222.24

June 1994

-215.19

July 1994

-213.57

August 1994

-207.36

September 1994

-202.86

October 1994

-197.40

November 1994

-196.19

December 1994

-196.45

January 1995

-198.08

February 1995

-192.61

March 1995

-203.00

April 1995

-188.00

May 1995

-190.43

June 1995

-188.93

July 1995

-184.81

August 1995

-192.32

September 1995

-189.06

October 1995

-181.31

November 1995

-181.97

December 1995

-169.71

January 1996

-165.01

February 1996

-169.01

March 1996

-173.48

April 1996

-142.02

May 1996

-146.38

June 1996

-138.77

July 1996

-136.17

August 1996

-134.43

September 1996

-124.56

October 1996

-132.27

November 1996

-127.92

December 1996

-126.69

January 1997

-123.81

February 1997

-124.35

March 1997

-107.86

April 1997

-87.28

May 1997

-84.11

June 1997

-69.12

July 1997

-67.99

August 1997

-62.30

September 1997

-47.43

October 1997

-35.04

November 1997

-26.85

December 1997

-18.69

January 1998

-6.30

February 1998

-3.26

March 1998

4.97

April 1998

33.68

May 1998

36.31

June 1998

46.93

July 1998

57.44

August 1998

65.80

September 1998

63.50

October 1998

62.66

November 1998

62.14

December 1998

70.96

January 1999

79.26

February 1999

79.19

March 1999

79.19

April 1999

80.37

May 1999

85.61

June 1999

87.99

July 1999

87.23

August 1999

94.22

September 1999

112.74

October 1999

114.94

November 1999

115.50

December 1999

126.86

January 2000

144.90

February 2000

144.64

March 2000

141.73

April 2000

169.73

May 2000

199.39

June 2000

211.43

July 2000

223.33

August 2000

224.84

September 2000

243.21

October 2000

248.24

November 2000

250.56

December 2000

250.58

January 2001

265.61

February 2001

259.01

March 2001

244.50

April 2001

274.25

May 2001

250.11

June 2001

226.81

July 2001

211.27

August 2001

180.04

September 2001

140.85

October 2001

132.11

November 2001

114.03

December 2001

106.03

January 2002

60.72

February 2002

33.81

March 2002

9.94

April 2002

-102.80

May 2002

-144.49

June 2002

-168.49

July 2002

-178.18

August 2002

-179.75

September 2002

-185.16

October 2002

-209.72

November 2002

-215.40

December 2002

-245.24

January 2003

-255.56

February 2003

-275.33

March 2003

-281.22

April 2003

-297.32

May 2003

-304.90

June 2003

-313.88

July 2003

-338.43

August 2003

-359.60

September 2003

-372.78

October 2003

-382.11

November 2003

-389.76

December 2003

-399.76

January 2004

-412.20

February 2004

-425.31

March 2004

-427.80

April 2004

-448.74

May 2004

-446.81

June 2004

-436.48

July 2004

-439.19

August 2004

-428.56

September 2004

-415.06

October 2004

-414.13

November 2004

-416.33

December 2004

-400.30

January 2005

-403.45

February 2005

-408.04

March 2005

-406.04

April 2005

-365.35

May 2005

-339.56

June 2005

-336.27

July 2005

-333.07

August 2005

-330.42

September 2005

-312.66

October 2005

-310.82

November 2005

-336.62

December 2005

-321.96

January 2006

-310.32

February 2006

-315.98

March 2006

-315.76

April 2006

-281.97

May 2006

-275.28

June 2006

-262.64

July 2006

-257.10

August 2006

-270.66

September 2006

-259.21

October 2006

-251.75

November 2006

-241.59

December 2006

-228.57

January 2007

-206.49

February 2007

-207.47

March 2007

-217.76

April 2007

-159.90

May 2007

-184.20

June 2007

-172.68

July 2007

-180.55

August 2007

-184.60

September 2007

-180.14

October 2007

-182.63

November 2007

-188.40

December 2007

-189.13

January 2008

-209.66

February 2008

-235.75

March 2008

-232.38

April 2008

-235.91

May 2008

-314.08

Figure: Outlays and Receipts
12-month moving sum
Percent change from year earlier

Period

Outlays Receipts

January 1994

2.93

6.85

February 1994

2.81

7.19

March 1994

2.12

7.00

April 1994

1.82

8.44

May 1994

1.82

8.77

June 1994

1.72

8.87

July 1994

1.85

9.09

August 1994

1.64

9.19

September 1994

1.65

9.04

October 1994

1.78

9.77

November 1994

1.66

9.37

December 1994

2.03

8.74

January 1995

2.68

8.56

February 1995

2.82

8.69

March 1995

3.66

7.76

April 1995

4.56

8.93

May 1995

4.87

8.35

June 1995

5.26

8.31

July 1995

5.34

8.58

August 1995

5.49

7.61

September 1995

5.50

7.48

October 1995

5.06

7.11

November 1995

5.01

6.91

December 1995

4.28

7.03

January 1996

3.97

7.15

February 1996

4.42

6.90

March 1996

3.80

6.67

April 1996

3.60

7.59

May 1996

3.22

7.01

June 1996

2.43

6.52

July 1996

2.72

6.71

August 1996

2.37

7.02

September 1996

2.39

7.49

October 1996

3.22

7.27

November 1996

3.25

7.65

December 1996

4.15

7.81

January 1997

4.03

7.50

February 1997

3.39

7.03

March 1997

3.49

8.68

April 1997

3.35

7.54

May 1997

3.16

7.87

June 1997

3.81

9.07

July 1997

3.51

8.59

August 1997

3.26

8.58

September 1997

3.11

8.69

October 1997

2.53

9.44

November 1997

2.15

9.24

December 1997

2.29

9.81

January 1998

1.95

10.04

February 1998

2.15

10.49

March 1998

2.09

9.75

April 1998

2.04

10.07

May 1998

1.84

9.81

June 1998

1.68

9.23

July 1998

1.43

9.54

August 1998

1.67

9.94

September 1998

2.22

9.31

October 1998

2.13

8.30

November 1998

2.96

8.58

December 1998

2.36

7.93

January 1999

2.44

7.70

February 1999

2.25

7.29

March 1999

2.91

7.41

April 1999

2.93

5.65

May 1999

2.93

5.80

June 1999

3.25

5.58

July 1999

3.43

5.06

August 1999

3.67

5.19

September 1999

2.86

5.61

October 1999

2.98

5.90

November 1999

2.71

5.68

December 1999

3.26

6.33

January 2000

3.20

6.79

February 2000

3.66

7.22

March 2000

3.37

6.75

April 2000

3.18

8.07

May 2000

4.33

10.52

June 2000

3.96

10.66

July 2000

3.80

11.20

August 2000

4.05

11.07

September 2000

4.20

11.10

October 2000

4.56

11.57

November 2000

4.26

11.35

December 2000

3.55

9.96

January 2001

4.41

10.51

February 2001

4.33

10.06

March 2001

4.36

9.47

April 2001

4.70

9.73

May 2001

3.87

6.05

June 2001

4.31

4.63

July 2001

4.82

3.68

August 2001

5.09

2.29

September 2001

5.30

-0.40

October 2001

5.17

-1.15

November 2001

5.87

-1.53

December 2001

6.11

-1.72

January 2002

6.16

-4.51

February 2002

6.46

-5.20

March 2002

6.21

-5.86

April 2002

6.81

-11.98

May 2002

7.61

-12.22

June 2002

7.15

-12.69

July 2002

7.49

-12.11

August 2002

6.79

-11.34

September 2002

7.26

-9.41

October 2002

7.54

-9.91

November 2002

6.89

-9.86

December 2002

7.58

-10.31

January 2003

7.06

-9.14

February 2003

6.84

-8.99

March 2003

7.34

-7.64

April 2003

6.84

-3.28

May 2003

6.26

-2.01

June 2003

7.04

-0.34

July 2003

6.85

-1.29

August 2003

7.20

-1.98

September 2003

7.38

-2.14

October 2003

7.36

-1.28

November 2003

7.47

-1.26

December 2003

7.27

-0.32

January 2004

7.34

-0.33

February 2004

7.51

0.29

March 2004

7.43

0.45

April 2004

7.40

0.18

May 2004

7.45

0.80

June 2004

6.98

1.40

July 2004

6.93

2.62

August 2004

6.99

4.54

September 2004

6.20

5.13

October 2004

5.49

4.88

November 2004

6.06

5.90

December 2004

5.98

7.28

January 2005

6.43

8.39

February 2005

6.28

8.73

March 2005

6.23

8.91

April 2005

6.51

12.78

May 2005

6.55

14.09

June 2005

6.78

13.88

July 2005

6.35

13.63

August 2005

6.41

13.14

September 2005

7.20

14.23

October 2005

7.92

15.16

November 2005

8.36

14.39

December 2005

8.24

14.03

January 2006

8.00

14.46

February 2006

8.13

14.55

March 2006

8.14

14.40

April 2006

7.53

13.00

May 2006

8.40

12.90

June 2006

8.33

13.21

July 2006

8.63

13.64

August 2006

8.70

12.89

September 2006

8.61

12.36

October 2006

8.31

12.23

November 2006

6.89

12.33

December 2006

6.60

11.82

January 2007

6.26

11.80

February 2007

5.85

11.53

March 2007

5.69

10.84

April 2007

5.95

12.02

May 2007

4.44

8.88

June 2007

3.79

8.03

July 2007

4.02

7.67

August 2007

3.72

7.75

September 2007

2.84

6.42

October 2007

2.91

6.06

November 2007

3.44

5.97

December 2007

3.91

5.88

January 2008

4.14

4.36

February 2008

4.61

3.86

March 2008

4.10

3.88

April 2008

4.56

1.88

May 2008

6.12

1.45

Recent Federal Outlays and Receipts
(Billions of dollars except as noted)

April-May
Function or source
2007
Outlays

453.0

2008

12 months ending in May
Percent
change

2007

2008

Percent
change

514.8

13.7

2,720.3

2,886.9

6.1

Net interest

44.7

38.4

-14.0

235.3

245.9

4.5

National defense

90.7

103.8

14.4

549.7

600.2

9.2

253.8

298.8

17.7

1,495.6

1,595.0

6.6

63.7

73.8

15.7

439.7

445.8

1.4

547.9

528.0

-3.6

2,536.1

2,572.8

1.4

439.7

425.4

-3.3

1,944.7

2,009.5

3.3

Major transfers1
Other
 

 

Receipts
Individual income and payroll taxes
Corporate income taxes

57.0

48.7

-14.5

380.9

337.5

-11.4

Other

51.2

53.9

5.2

210.5

225.9

7.3

 

Surplus or deficit (-)

 

94.9

13.2

…

-184.2

-314.1

…

Memo:
Unadjusted surplus or deficit (-)

110.0

-6.6

…

-169.6

-332.5

…

1. Includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and income security programs.  Return to table
… Not applicable.

State and Local Indicators
Figure: Real Spending on Consumption & Investment
A line chart shows two series, "Spending", and "4-quarter moving average" from 1998 through 2007:Q4. Unit is percent change, annual rate.

The "Spending" series begins at about 1.5 percent in 1998, widely fluctuates between about 8.2 and -2.5 throughout the period and then decreases to end at
about 1 in 2008:Q1.

The "4-quarter moving average" series begins at about 6 percent in 1999, decreases to about 1.9 in 2001, increases to about 4.2 in late 2001, and decreases to
about -0.5 in 2004. It then increases to about 2.5 in 2007:Q4 and then decreases slightly to end at about 2.1 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Net Change in Employment
A bar chart shows net change in employment from 1998 through May 2008. Unit is thousands of jobs, monthly average.

The estimated values for the series are as follows: 1998: 26. 1999: 39. 2000: 25. 2001: 45. 2002: 17. 2003: 0. 2004: 15. 2005: 14. 2006: 17. 2007: 20. 2008:
January-March: 17. 2008 April: 7. May: 18.

Figure: Real Construction
A line chart shows a single series from 1997:Q4 through April 2008. Data is an annual rate; unit is billions of chained (2000) dollars.

The series begins at about 155 in 1997:Q4, decreases to about 146 in 1998, increases to about 188 in 2002:Q1, decreases to about 170 in 2005:Q1, then
increases to about 185 in early 2008 and decreases to end at about 180 in April 2008.
Note. Nominal CPIP deflated by BEA prices through Q1 and by a staff projection thereafter.

Figure: Net Saving
A line chart shows a single series from 1987 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent of nominal GDP.

The series begins at about 0.15 percent in 1987, increases to about 0.5 in early 1989, decreases to about -0.2 in early 1993, and generally increases to about
0.75 in late 1998. It decreases to about -0.6 in early 2003, increases to about 0.3 in 2006, and then decreases to end at about -0.45 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: State Revenues
A line chart shows two series, "Individual and corporate income taxes", and "Total revenues" from 1997:Q4 through 2007:Q4. Data is 4-quarter moving average;
unit is percent change from year earlier.

The "Individual and corporate income taxes" series begins at about 7.5 percent in 1997:Q4, increases to about 13 in 2000, decreases to about -12.5 in 2002,
increases to about 17 in 2005 and then decreases to end at about 6 in 2007:Q4.

The "Total revenues" series begins at about 5.1 percent in 1997:Q4, increases to about 9.5 in 2000, decreases to about -5 in 2002, increases to about 11 in 2005
and then decreases to end at about 4.5 in 2007:Q4.
Source. Census Bureau.

Figure: Local Revenues
A line chart shows two series, "Property taxes", and "Total revenues" from 1997:Q4 through 2007:Q4. Data is 4-quarter moving average; unit is percent change
from year earlier.

The "Property taxes" series begins at about 4.1 percent in 1997:Q4, decreases to about 2.2 in 1998, increases to about 11 in late 2002, decreases to about 3 in
2003 and increases to about 9 in 2005. It then decreases to end at about 7 in 2007:Q4.

The "Total revenues" series begins at about 5.5 percent in 1997:Q4, decreases to about 1 in 1999, increases to about 8 in late 2002, and decreases to about 2.5
in 2003. It then increases to about 9 in 2005 and decreases to end at about 6 in 2007:Q4.
Source. Census Bureau.

Price Measures
(Percent change)

12-month change

1-month change

Annual rate

Measures

3-month change

Monthly rate

May 2007 May 2008
Feb. 2008 May 2008 Apr. 2008 May 2008
CPI
Total

2.7

4.2

3.1

4.9

.2

.6

Food

3.9

5.1

4.7

6.2

.9

.3

Energy

4.7

17.4

7.6

28.2

.0

4.4

Ex. food and energy

2.2

2.3

2.3

1.8

.1

.2

-.7

.1

.4

-.9

.0

-.1

Core goods
Core services

3.4

3.2

3.1

2.9

.1

.3

Shelter

3.8

2.6

2.7

1.6

.0

.2

Other services

2.9

4.0

3.6

4.8

.3

.5

 

 

Chained CPI (n.s.a.) 1

2.4

3.6

…

…

…

…

2.0

2.0

…

…

…

…

2.4

Ex. food and energy 1

3.1

2.7

4.1

.2

.5

PCE prices 2
Total
Food and beverages

3.6

4.9

4.8

5.8

.9

.3

Energy

4.6

12.2

7.4

28.5

-.1

4.5

Ex. food and energy

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.0

.1

.2

Core goods

-.8

-.2

1.1

-1.3

.0

-.2

Core services

3.2

3.1

2.3

3.2

.2

.3

Shelter

3.8

2.7

2.8

1.9

.1

.2

Other services

2.9

3.2

2.2

3.7

.2

.3

Core market-based

1.8

1.9

2.0

1.6

.1

.1

Core non-market-based

2.9

3.3

2.0

3.3

.2

.2

3.9

7.2

3.8

11.0

.2

1.4

 

 

PPI
Total finished goods
Food

8.2

6.5

10.3

8.3

.0

.8

Energy

6.6

19.7

-2.9

34.7

-.2

4.9

Ex. food and energy

1.6

3.0

4.5

3.7

.4

.2

Core consumer goods

1.6

3.4

5.0

4.2

.4

.3

Capital equipment

1.6

2.3

3.5

2.7

.4

.1

 

 

Intermediate materials

3.8

12.6

8.6

27.7

.9

2.9

Ex. food and energy

3.0

7.4

6.0

18.5

1.2

2.0

Crude materials

11.3

40.1

100.9

3.2

6.7

9.0

Ex. food and energy

41.5
33.0

43.5

89.1

7.9

5.0

1. Higher-frequency figures are not applicable for data that are not seasonally adjusted.  Return to table
2. PCE prices in May 2008 are staff estimates.  Return to table
… Not applicable.

Consumer Prices
(12-month change except as noted)
Figure: PCE Prices
Percent

Period

Core PCE Total PCE

January 2000

1.69

2.37

February 2000

1.85

2.69

March 2000

2.02

3.03

April 2000

1.80

2.48

May 2000

1.75

2.42

June 2000

1.68

2.68

July 2000

1.62

2.60

August 2000

1.64

2.33

September 2000

1.58

2.38

October 2000

1.50

2.27

November 2000

1.57

2.35

December 2000

1.51

2.24

January 2001

1.60

2.39

February 2001

1.67

2.27

March 2001

1.60

1.93

April 2001

1.73

2.23

May 2001

1.73

2.49

June 2001

2.00

2.41

July 2001

2.18

2.20

August 2001

2.21

2.31

September 2001

1.47

1.64

October 2001

2.20

1.98

November 2001

2.30

1.78

December 2001

2.17

1.46

January 2002

1.88

1.13

February 2002

1.83

1.09

March 2002

1.80

1.32

April 2002

1.82

1.47

May 2002

1.84

1.15

June 2002

1.69

1.03

July 2002

1.56

1.23

August 2002

1.71

1.43

September 2002

2.41

1.88

October 2002

1.65

1.62

November 2002

1.46

1.75

December 2002

1.56

2.00

January 2003

1.55

2.06

February 2003

1.47

2.40

March 2003

1.51

2.51

April 2003

1.35

1.84

May 2003

1.40

1.76

June 2003

1.36

1.77

July 2003

1.43

1.84

August 2003

1.33

1.94

September 2003

1.27

2.03

October 2003

1.42

1.93

November 2003

1.41

1.79

December 2003

1.49

1.96

January 2004

1.65

2.11

February 2004

1.77

2.00

March 2004

1.89

1.90

April 2004

2.05

2.35

May 2004

2.09

2.93

June 2004

2.21

3.11

July 2004

2.12

2.93

August 2004

2.06

2.66

September 2004

2.12

2.50

October 2004

2.15

2.99

November 2004

2.31

3.26

December 2004

2.24

3.01

January 2005

2.29

2.76

February 2005

2.25

2.71

March 2005

2.27

2.81

April 2005

2.13

2.98

May 2005

2.19

2.60

June 2005

2.07

2.35

July 2005

2.08

2.72

August 2005

2.11

3.06

September 2005

2.16

3.88

October 2005

2.18

3.60

November 2005

2.16

2.97

December 2005

2.19

2.93

January 2006

2.06

3.25

February 2006

2.02

3.02

March 2006

2.04

2.89

April 2006

2.20

3.00

May 2006

2.17

3.33

June 2006

2.34

3.49

July 2006

2.32

3.38

August 2006

2.45

3.22

September 2006

2.44

1.97

October 2006

2.38

1.50

November 2006

2.23

1.91

December 2006

2.26

2.31

January 2007

2.44

2.13

February 2007

2.46

2.34

March 2007

2.26

2.53

April 2007

2.09

2.32

May 2007

2.01

2.37

June 2007

1.91

2.31

July 2007

1.95

2.12

August 2007

1.88

1.85

September 2007

1.94

2.45

October 2007

1.98

2.97

November 2007

2.11

3.60

December 2007

2.15

3.53

January 2008

1.99

3.51

February 2008

1.94

3.36

March 2008

2.06

3.22

April 2008

2.09

3.16

May 2008*

2.14

3.15

* Staff estimate.  Return to table

Figure: CPI and PCE ex. Food and Energy
Percent

Period

PCE CPI CPI chained

January 2000

1.69 2.00

ND

February 2000

1.85 2.16

ND

March 2000

2.02 2.44

ND

April 2000

1.80 2.32

ND

May 2000

1.75 2.43

ND

June 2000

1.68 2.49

ND

July 2000

1.62 2.49

ND

August 2000

1.64 2.60

ND

September 2000 1.58 2.59

ND

October 2000

1.50 2.52

ND

November 2000

1.57 2.58

ND

December 2000

1.51 2.58

1.90

January 2001

1.60 2.63

1.89

February 2001

1.67 2.73

1.99

March 2001

1.60 2.66

1.98

April 2001

1.73 2.60

1.88

May 2001

1.73 2.54

1.88

June 2001

2.00 2.71

2.17

July 2001

2.18 2.70

2.07

August 2001

2.21 2.70

2.17

September 2001 1.47 2.63

1.96

October 2001

2.20 2.63

1.96

November 2001

2.30 2.79

2.05

December 2001

2.17 2.74

2.16

January 2002

1.88 2.56

2.05

February 2002

1.83 2.60

2.04

March 2002

1.80 2.43

1.94

April 2002

1.82 2.53

2.03

May 2002

1.84 2.53

2.13

June 2002

1.69 2.26

1.64

July 2002

1.56 2.20

1.74

August 2002

1.71 2.36

1.73

September 2002 2.41 2.24

1.92

October 2002

1.65 2.24

1.82

November 2002

1.46 1.97

1.63

December 2002

1.56 1.92

1.63

January 2003

1.55 1.91

1.63

February 2003

1.47 1.74

1.34

March 2003

1.51 1.69

1.24

April 2003

1.35 1.47

1.14

May 2003

1.40 1.58

1.14

June 2003

1.36 1.53

1.24

July 2003

1.43 1.52

1.14

August 2003

1.33 1.31

1.04

September 2003 1.27 1.20

0.85

October 2003

1.42 1.30

0.94

November 2003

1.41 1.09

0.85

December 2003

1.49 1.15

0.76

January 2004

1.65 1.15

0.94

February 2004

1.77 1.25

1.22

March 2004

1.89 1.61

1.50

April 2004

2.05 1.76

1.69

May 2004

2.09 1.71

1.69

June 2004

2.21 1.87

1.69

July 2004

2.12 1.76

1.69

August 2004

2.06 1.71

1.59

September 2004 2.12 1.96

1.87

October 2004

2.15 2.01

1.96

November 2004

2.31 2.17

2.15

December 2004

2.24 2.17

2.25

January 2005

2.29 2.27

2.15

February 2005

2.25 2.36

2.14

March 2005

2.27 2.35

1.94

April 2005

2.13 2.24

1.94

May 2005

2.19 2.19

1.85

June 2005

2.07 2.03

1.85

July 2005

2.08 2.14

1.75

August 2005

2.11 2.13

1.85

September 2005 2.16 1.98

1.75

October 2005

2.18 2.07

1.74

November 2005

2.16 2.12

1.74

December 2005

2.19 2.17

1.83

January 2006

2.06 2.12

1.74

February 2006

2.02 2.06

1.82

March 2006

2.04 2.09

2.00

April 2006

2.20 2.29

2.08

May 2006

2.17 2.44

2.18

June 2006

2.34 2.64

2.45

July 2006

2.32 2.69

2.54

August 2006

2.45 2.84

2.63

September 2006 2.44 2.93

2.62

October 2006

2.38 2.72

2.43

November 2006

2.23 2.62

2.25

December 2006

2.26 2.57

2.16

January 2007

2.44 2.67

2.29

February 2007

2.46 2.71

2.26

March 2007

2.26 2.45

2.10

April 2007

2.09 2.34

2.02

May 2007

2.01 2.24

1.98

June 2007

1.91 2.22

1.82

July 2007

1.95 2.21

1.77

August 2007

1.88 2.13

1.65

September 2007 1.94 2.14

1.65

October 2007

1.98 2.17

1.80

November 2007

2.11 2.33

2.02

December 2007

2.15 2.44

2.12

January 2008

1.99 2.47

2.16

February 2008

1.94 2.27

1.98

March 2008

2.06 2.35

2.06

April 2008

2.09 2.26

1.94

May 2008*

2.14 2.31

2.02

* PCE for May is a staff estimate.  Return to table

Figure: PCE excluding Food and Energy
Percent

Period
January 2000

PCE Market-based components
1.69

1.21

February 2000

1.85

1.37

March 2000

2.02

1.54

April 2000

1.80

1.28

May 2000

1.75

1.27

June 2000

1.68

1.21

July 2000

1.62

1.34

August 2000

1.64

1.52

September 2000 1.58

1.49

October 2000

1.50

1.46

November 2000

1.57

1.52

December 2000

1.51

1.43

January 2001

1.60

1.47

February 2001

1.67

1.57

March 2001

1.60

1.49

April 2001

1.73

1.61

May 2001

1.73

1.54

June 2001

2.00

1.81

July 2001

2.18

1.85

August 2001

2.21

1.75

September 2001 1.47

1.66

October 2001

1.66

2.20

November 2001

2.30

1.84

December 2001

2.17

1.77

January 2002

1.88

1.50

February 2002

1.83

1.46

March 2002

1.80

1.41

April 2002

1.82

1.52

May 2002

1.84

1.59

June 2002

1.69

1.47

July 2002

1.56

1.33

August 2002

1.71

1.53

September 2002 2.41

1.59

October 2002

1.65

1.50

November 2002

1.46

1.27

December 2002

1.56

1.35

January 2003

1.55

1.37

February 2003

1.47

1.27

March 2003

1.51

1.30

April 2003

1.35

1.13

May 2003

1.40

1.19

June 2003

1.36

1.13

July 2003

1.43

1.22

August 2003

1.33

1.07

September 2003 1.27

0.95

October 2003

1.08

1.42

November 2003

1.41

0.96

December 2003

1.49

1.02

January 2004

1.65

1.15

February 2004

1.77

1.28

March 2004

1.89

1.40

April 2004

2.05

1.47

May 2004

2.09

1.47

June 2004

2.21

1.58

July 2004

2.12

1.46

August 2004

2.06

1.39

September 2004 2.12

1.45

October 2004

2.15

1.50

November 2004

2.31

1.73

December 2004

2.24

1.68

January 2005

2.29

1.77

February 2005

2.25

1.76

March 2005

2.27

1.76

April 2005

2.13

1.66

May 2005

2.19

1.74

June 2005

2.07

1.62

July 2005

2.08

1.64

August 2005

2.11

1.68

September 2005 2.16

1.73

October 2005

2.18

1.70

November 2005

2.16

1.70

December 2005

2.19

1.76

January 2006

2.06

1.59

February 2006

2.02

1.57

March 2006

2.04

1.63

April 2006

2.20

1.80

May 2006

2.17

1.82

June 2006

2.34

2.01

July 2006

2.32

2.00

August 2006

2.45

2.15

September 2006 2.44

2.18

October 2006

2.15

2.38

November 2006

2.23

1.97

December 2006

2.26

1.97

January 2007

2.44

2.20

February 2007

2.46

2.27

March 2007

2.26

2.06

April 2007

2.09

1.93

May 2007

2.01

1.82

June 2007

1.91

1.73

July 2007

1.95

1.75

August 2007

1.88

1.63

September 2007 1.94

1.65

October 2007

1.98

1.72

November 2007

2.11

1.88

December 2007

2.15

1.97

January 2008

1.99

1.81

February 2008

1.94

1.71

March 2008

2.06

1.78

April 2008

2.09

1.82

May 2008*

2.14

1.87

* Staff estimate.  Return to table

Figure: PCE Goods and Services
Percent

Period

Goods ex. food and energy Services ex. energy

January 2000

-0.73

2.79

February 2000

-0.50

2.91

March 2000

0.19

2.85

April 2000

-0.15

2.69

May 2000

-0.08

2.58

June 2000

-0.27

2.57

July 2000

-0.24

2.48

August 2000

-0.29

2.53

September 2000

-0.27

2.44

October 2000

-0.47

2.41

November 2000

-0.05

2.33

December 2000

-0.04

2.24

January 2001

0.16

2.26

February 2001

0.27

2.31

-0.22

2.42

March 2001

April 2001

-0.38

2.69

May 2001

-0.72

2.84

June 2001

-0.40

3.08

July 2001

-0.20

3.25

August 2001

-0.49

3.42

September 2001

-0.99

2.57

October 2001

-0.70

3.49

November 2001

-0.71

3.64

December 2001

-0.90

3.54

January 2002

-1.14

3.23

February 2002

-1.17

3.18

March 2002

-1.17

3.12

April 2002

-0.86

3.02

May 2002

-0.70

2.97

June 2002

-0.86

2.83

July 2002

-1.30

2.83

August 2002

-0.64

2.76

September 2002

-0.52

3.71

October 2002

-0.90

2.78

November 2002

-1.29

2.68

December 2002

-1.27

2.82

January 2003

-1.47

2.89

February 2003

-1.67

2.86

March 2003

-1.70

2.92

April 2003

-2.15

2.90

May 2003

-2.34

3.06

June 2003

-2.37

3.01

July 2003

-2.13

3.01

August 2003

-2.42

2.99

September 2003

-2.59

2.99

October 2003

-2.41

3.12

November 2003

-2.42

3.10

December 2003

-2.25

3.14

January 2004

-1.87

3.19

February 2004

-1.49

3.20

March 2004

-1.14

3.21

April 2004

-0.99

3.37

May 2004

-0.51

3.21

June 2004

-0.36

3.31

July 2004

-0.64

3.31

August 2004

-0.80

3.28

September 2004

-0.49

3.22

October 2004

-0.09

3.09

November 2004

0.18

3.20

December 2004

0.11

3.14

January 2005

0.32

3.11

February 2005

0.18

3.13

March 2005

0.06

3.20

-0.10

3.07

April 2005

May 2005

0.05

3.09

June 2005

-0.23

3.05

July 2005

-0.19

3.04

August 2005

-0.01

3.00

0.00

3.07

September 2005
October 2005

-0.20

3.18

November 2005

-0.20

3.16

December 2005

-0.06

3.14

January 2006

-0.22

3.02

February 2006

-0.33

3.01

March 2006

-0.19

2.98

April 2006

0.03

3.10

May 2006

-0.17

3.14

June 2006

0.00

3.30

July 2006

0.05

3.26

August 2006

0.30

3.34

September 2006

0.21

3.35

October 2006

0.07

3.34

November 2006

-0.31

3.27

December 2006

-0.35

3.34

January 2007

-0.28

3.56

February 2007

-0.05

3.49

March 2007

-0.42

3.35

April 2007

-0.68

3.23

May 2007

-0.80

3.17

June 2007

-0.88

3.06

July 2007

-0.69

3.03

August 2007

-1.05

3.07

September 2007

-1.04

3.15

October 2007

-0.85

3.12

November 2007

-0.49

3.16

December 2007

-0.38

3.17

January 2008

-0.31

2.90

February 2008

-0.41

2.88

March 2008

-0.33

3.00

April 2008

-0.17

2.99

May 2008*

-0.19

3.05

* Staff estimate.  Return to table

Figure: PCE excluding Food and Energy
Percent

Period

PCE 3-month change, annual rate

January 2000

1.69

2.24

February 2000

1.85

2.46

March 2000

2.02

2.63

April 2000

1.80

1.79

May 2000

1.75

1.42

June 2000

1.68

0.59

July 2000

1.62

0.63

August 2000

1.64

0.63

September 2000 1.58

1.48

October 2000

1.50

1.35

November 2000

1.57

1.79

December 2000

1.51

1.36

January 2001

1.60

2.63

February 2001

1.67

2.86

March 2001

1.60

2.96

April 2001

1.73

2.33

May 2001

1.73

1.65

June 2001

2.00

2.18

July 2001

2.18

2.41

August 2001

2.21

2.53

September 2001 1.47

-0.59

October 2001

2.20

1.44

November 2001

2.30

2.17

December 2001

2.17

4.18

January 2002

1.88

1.34

February 2002

1.83

1.00

March 2002

1.80

1.48

April 2002

1.82

2.10

May 2002

1.84

1.68

June 2002

1.69

1.77

July 2002

1.56

1.36

August 2002

1.71

2.02

September 2002 2.41

2.22

October 2002

1.77

1.65

November 2002

1.46

1.14

December 2002

1.56

0.76

January 2003

1.55

0.98

February 2003

1.47

1.07

March 2003

1.51

1.28

April 2003

1.35

1.28

May 2003

1.40

1.39

June 2003

1.36

1.17

July 2003

1.43

1.70

August 2003

1.33

1.73

September 2003 1.27

1.89

October 2003

1.42

1.73

November 2003

1.41

1.46

December 2003

1.49

1.64

January 2004

1.65

1.88

February 2004

1.77

2.52

March 2004

1.89

2.87

April 2004

2.05

2.88

May 2004

2.09

2.65

June 2004

2.21

2.44

July 2004

2.12

2.00

August 2004

2.06

1.63

September 2004 2.12

1.54

October 2004

2.15

1.83

November 2004

2.31

2.44

December 2004

2.24

2.12

January 2005

2.29

2.44

February 2005

2.25

2.30

March 2005

2.27

2.97

April 2005

2.13

2.24

May 2005

2.19

2.37

June 2005

2.07

1.66

July 2005

2.08

1.80

August 2005

2.11

1.33

September 2005 2.16

1.90

October 2005

2.22

2.18

November 2005

2.16

2.64

December 2005

2.19

2.22

January 2006

2.06

1.96

February 2006

2.02

1.75

March 2006

2.04

2.38

April 2006

2.20

2.81

May 2006

2.17

2.97

June 2006

2.34

2.87

July 2006

2.32

2.28

August 2006

2.45

2.45

September 2006 2.44

2.28

October 2006

2.38

2.47

November 2006

2.23

1.75

December 2006

2.26

1.51

January 2007

2.44

2.21

February 2007

2.46

2.69

March 2007

2.26

2.37

April 2007

2.09

1.42

May 2007

2.01

1.17

June 2007

1.91

1.50

July 2007

1.95

1.71

August 2007

1.88

1.91

September 2007 1.94

2.39

October 2007

1.98

2.58

November 2007

2.11

2.67

December 2007

2.15

2.36

January 2008

1.99

2.24

February 2008

1.94

2.01

March 2008

2.06

1.99

April 2008

2.09

1.84

May 2008*

2.14

1.95

* Staff estimate.  Return to table

Figure: CPI excluding Food and Energy
Percent

Period

CPI 3-month change, annual rate

January 2000

2.00

2.72

February 2000

2.16

2.26

March 2000

2.44

2.94

April 2000

2.32

2.25

May 2000

2.43

2.93

June 2000

2.49

2.47

July 2000

2.49

2.69

August 2000

2.60

2.68

September 2000 2.59

2.68

October 2000

2.52

2.45

November 2000

2.58

2.67

December 2000

2.58

2.21

January 2001

2.63

2.88

February 2001

2.73

2.87

March 2001

2.66

3.09

April 2001

2.60

2.64

May 2001

2.54

1.97

June 2001

2.71

2.85

July 2001

2.70

2.84

August 2001

2.70

3.06

September 2001 2.63

2.39

October 2001

2.63

2.16

November 2001

2.79

3.03

December 2001

2.74

2.81

January 2002

2.56

2.80

February 2002

2.60

2.14

March 2002

2.43

1.71

April 2002

2.53

2.14

May 2002

2.53

1.92

June 2002

2.26

2.13

July 2002

2.20

1.70

August 2002

2.36

2.34

September 2002 2.24

2.33

October 2002

2.24

2.12

November 2002

1.97

1.69

December 2002

1.92

1.68

January 2003

1.91

1.89

February 2003

1.74

1.26

March 2003

1.69

0.84

April 2003

1.47

0.21

May 2003

1.58

0.83

June 2003

1.53

1.04

July 2003

1.52

1.88

August 2003

1.31

1.46

September 2003 1.20

1.46

October 2003

1.30

1.25

November 2003

1.09

0.83

December 2003

1.15

1.04

January 2004

1.15

1.45

February 2004

1.25

1.87

March 2004

1.61

2.70

April 2004

1.76

2.49

May 2004

1.71

2.69

June 2004

1.87

2.06

July 2004

1.76

1.85

August 2004

1.71

1.43

September 2004 1.96

2.05

October 2004

2.01

2.25

November 2004

2.17

2.87

December 2004

2.17

2.04

January 2005

2.27

2.24

February 2005

2.36

2.24

March 2005

2.35

3.06

April 2005

2.24

2.43

May 2005

2.19

2.22

June 2005

2.03

1.21

July 2005

2.14

1.41

August 2005

2.13

1.40

September 2005 1.98

1.60

October 2005

2.07

2.21

November 2005

2.12

2.61

December 2005

2.17

2.81

January 2006

2.12

2.40

February 2006

2.06

2.19

March 2006

2.09

2.79

April 2006

2.29

3.19

May 2006

2.44

3.58

June 2006

2.64

3.57

July 2006

2.69

3.16

August 2006

2.84

2.95

September 2006 2.93

2.55

October 2006

2.72

2.35

November 2006

2.62

1.56

December 2006

2.57

1.55

January 2007

2.67

1.96

February 2007

2.71

2.69

March 2007

2.45

2.20

April 2007

2.34

2.01

May 2007

2.24

1.72

June 2007

2.22

2.34

July 2007

2.21

2.46

August 2007

2.13

2.47

September 2007 2.14

2.48

October 2007

2.17

2.27

November 2007

2.33

2.60

December 2007

2.44

2.61

January 2008

2.47

3.15

February 2008

2.27

2.32

March 2008

2.35

2.03

April 2008

2.26

1.19

May 2008

2.31

1.85

Energy and Food Price Indicators
(Data from Energy Information Administration except as noted)
Figure: Total Gasoline Margin
Retail price less average spot crude price*

Period

Cents per gallon

10 January 2005

100.72

17 January 2005

97.65

24 January 2005

100.04

31 January 2005

104.94

7 February 2005

109.34

14 February 2005

102.31

21 February 2005

94.02

28 February 2005

92.66

7 March 2005

92.92

14 March 2005

95.11

21 March 2005

94.71

28 March 2005

101.43

4 April 2005

96.74

11 April 2005

105.81

18 April 2005

106.37

25 April 2005

98.55

2 May 2005

102.36

9 May 2005

94.15

16 May 2005

100.06

23 May 2005

97.22

30 May 2005

89.82

6 June 2005

88.40

13 June 2005

89.53

20 June 2005

85.98

27 June 2005

90.29

4 July 2005

94.46

11 July 2005

105.88

18 July 2005

109.10

25 July 2005

106.89

1 August 2005

93.92

8 August 2005

92.75

15 August 2005

105.45

22 August 2005

111.31

29 August 2005

106.37

5 September 2005

151.26

12 September 2005

144.97

19 September 2005

119.76

26 September 2005

129.12

3 October 2005

147.15

10 October 2005

152.09

17 October 2005

139.29

24 October 2005

133.96

31 October 2005

123.04

7 November 2005

113.78

14 November 2005

110.30

21 November 2005

101.52

28 November 2005

100.63

5 December 2005

96.08

12 December 2005

100.29

19 December 2005

114.30

26 December 2005

111.89

2 January 2006

103.75

9 January 2006

112.40

16 January 2006

105.39

23 January 2006

102.92

30 January 2006

104.70

6 February 2006

106.54

13 February 2006

108.62

20 February 2006

102.43

27 February 2006

102.79

6 March 2006

104.43

13 March 2006

107.46

20 March 2006

120.52

27 March 2006

109.07

3 April 2006

108.78

10 April 2006

110.43

17 April 2006

112.88

24 April 2006

125.42

1 May 2006

118.71

8 May 2006

126.23

15 May 2006

131.63

22 May 2006

128.09

29 May 2006

121.98

5 June 2006

126.40

12 June 2006

135.05

19 June 2006

137.11

26 June 2006

131.86

3 July 2006

135.16

10 July 2006

138.35

17 July 2006

135.78

24 July 2006

138.34

31 July 2006

134.89

7 August 2006

127.88

14 August 2006

129.75

21 August 2006

123.28

28 August 2006

117.80

4 September 2006

109.78

11 September 2006

104.88

18 September 2006

96.85

25 September 2006

94.96

2 October 2006

92.92

9 October 2006

95.23

16 October 2006

97.08

23 October 2006

102.02

30 October 2006

96.92

6 November 2006

92.72

13 November 2006

96.44

20 November 2006

101.71

27 November 2006

98.02

4 December 2006

102.21

11 December 2006

108.21

18 December 2006

113.15

25 December 2006

118.02

1 January 2007

124.15

8 January 2007

126.26

15 January 2007

127.60

22 January 2007

121.19

29 January 2007

114.18

5 February 2007

105.88

12 February 2007

111.62

19 February 2007

115.56

26 February 2007

115.43

5 March 2007

128.27

12 March 2007

133.43

19 March 2007

137.04

26 March 2007

123.61

2 April 2007

122.28

9 April 2007

135.94

16 April 2007

134.12

23 April 2007

128.99

30 April 2007

137.85

7 May 2007

154.30

14 May 2007

157.12

21 May 2007

160.76

28 May 2007

167.55

4 June 2007

158.86

11 June 2007

154.08

18 June 2007

142.05

25 June 2007

141.65

2 July 2007

136.12

9 July 2007

136.10

16 July 2007

139.02

23 July 2007

127.26

30 July 2007

111.72

6 August 2007

115.52

13 August 2007

108.73

20 August 2007

109.91

27 August 2007

103.01

3 September 2007

99.65

10 September 2007

96.72

17 September 2007

85.78

24 September 2007

87.65

1 October 2007

94.54

8 October 2007

100.01

15 October 2007

89.67

22 October 2007

95.61

29 October 2007

85.41

5 November 2007

95.73

12 November 2007

101.35

19 November 2007

97.38

26 November 2007

96.82

3 December 2007

114.88

10 December 2007

114.99

17 December 2007

112.21

24 December 2007

104.45

31 December 2007

105.15

7 January 2008

113.43

14 January 2008

112.48

21 January 2008

117.00

28 January 2008

109.16

4 February 2008

112.02

11 February 2008

101.53

18 February 2008

95.51

25 February 2008

104.43

3 March 2008

98.20

10 March 2008

91.55

17 March 2008

101.23

24 March 2008

104.52

31 March 2008

100.55

7 April 2008

91.23

14 April 2008

80.98

21 April 2008

78.77

28 April 2008

84.17

5 May 2008

83.38

12 May 2008

83.31

19 May 2008

85.05

26 May 2008

95.63

2 June 2008

104.42

9 June 2008

98.09

16 June 2008

102.26

* Regular grade seasonally adjusted by FRB staff, less average spot crude price: 60% WTI, 40% Maya heavy crude. Includes gasoline taxes.  Return to table

Figure: Gasoline Price Decomposition
Cents per gallon

Period

Retail price* Rack price Average spot crude price**

10 January 2005

193.65

135.47

92.93

17 January 2005

195.75

140.20

98.10

24 January 2005

198.20

142.36

98.16

31 January 2005

202.86

145.07

97.92

7 February 2005

201.51

141.20

92.18

14 February 2005

199.27

142.76

96.96

21 February 2005

198.60

140.47

104.58

28 February 2005

199.30

141.39

106.64

7 March 2005

204.80

151.38

111.88

14 March 2005

208.90

152.63

113.79

21 March 2005

212.07

157.31

117.36

28 March 2005

213.22

159.47

111.79

4 April 2005

216.34

167.53

119.60

11 April 2005

219.35

151.52

113.53

18 April 2005

212.09

145.86

105.71

25 April 2005

211.68

158.15

113.13

2 May 2005

211.86

146.75

109.50

9 May 2005

207.24

145.82

113.09

16 May 2005

205.22

141.78

105.16

23 May 2005

202.68

141.26

105.47

30 May 2005

201.90

145.72

112.08

6 June 2005

205.81

153.82

117.41

13 June 2005

209.23

153.64

119.70

20 June 2005

214.01

162.13

128.03

27 June 2005

220.20

163.99

129.91

4 July 2005

222.04

162.08

127.58

11 July 2005

232.97

174.51

127.09

18 July 2005

232.41

166.39

123.31

25 July 2005

227.83

167.82

120.94

1 August 2005

225.60

168.49

131.68

8 August 2005

230.87

179.63

138.12

15 August 2005

246.64

199.12

141.19

22 August 2005

251.04

194.24

139.73

29 August 2005

249.89

198.00

143.52

5 September 2005

294.83

232.53

143.58

12 September 2005

282.48

214.07

137.51

19 September 2005

265.54

189.66

145.78

26 September 2005

271.35

215.04

142.22

3 October 2005

288.47

234.97

141.31

10 October 2005

285.09

200.85

133.00

17 October 2005

277.27

191.44

137.98

24 October 2005

265.46

181.03

131.51

31 October 2005

251.67

176.23

128.63

7 November 2005

239.78

172.08

126.00

14 November 2005

230.28

161.41

119.98

21 November 2005

221.21

157.38

119.69

28 November 2005

220.18

159.65

119.55

5 December 2005

223.21

169.20

127.13

12 December 2005

230.74

174.73

130.45

19 December 2005

236.57

174.84

122.27

26 December 2005

235.44

173.36

123.55

2 January 2006

239.32

185.59

135.57

9 January 2006

248.00

191.50

135.60

16 January 2006

247.07

183.24

141.69

23 January 2006

248.04

187.78

145.12

30 January 2006

249.20

187.25

144.50

6 February 2006

246.76

180.45

140.22

13 February 2006

240.03

167.45

131.40

20 February 2006

234.32

174.70

131.89

27 February 2006

233.81

177.26

131.02

6 March 2006

239.58

188.01

135.16

13 March 2006

241.16

182.42

133.70

20 March 2006

252.67

192.99

132.15

27 March 2006

248.49

187.61

139.42

3 April 2006

253.80

195.76

145.01

10 April 2006

259.60

203.23

149.18

17 April 2006

266.07

211.09

153.19

24 April 2006

278.38

221.15

152.96

1 May 2006

279.08

209.51

160.37

8 May 2006

278.28

210.45

152.05

15 May 2006

282.28

221.43

150.65

22 May 2006

277.91

207.27

149.82

29 May 2006

277.76

212.90

155.79

5 June 2006

282.62

223.86

156.22

12 June 2006

286.38

223.13

151.32

19 June 2006

284.96

213.82

147.86

26 June 2006

285.62

223.28

153.76

3 July 2006

296.99

233.67

161.83

10 July 2006

297.42

233.23

159.07

17 July 2006

299.65

241.19

163.87

24 July 2006

299.46

241.41

161.12

31 July 2006

296.95

236.73

162.06

7 August 2006

297.74

238.73

169.86

14 August 2006

291.33

222.33

161.58

21 August 2006

281.59

217.55

158.30

28 August 2006

272.55

205.68

154.75

4 September 2006

259.66

191.50

149.88

11 September 2006

247.66

179.12

142.78

18 September 2006

235.03

174.24

138.19

25 September 2006

227.21

163.32

132.25

2 October 2006

225.49

169.95

132.56

9 October 2006

225.67

167.49

130.43

16 October 2006

227.23

165.83

130.15

23 October 2006

226.68

165.78

124.67

30 October 2006

226.04

170.27

129.12

6 November 2006

222.59

170.38

129.87

13 November 2006

224.14

172.11

127.70

20 November 2006

224.58

170.93

122.88

27 November 2006

228.86

175.43

130.84

4 December 2006

237.76

186.16

135.55

11 December 2006

241.16

180.82

132.96

18 December 2006

247.41

190.13

134.26

25 December 2006

250.12

185.99

132.10

1 January 2007

249.21

183.88

125.06

8 January 2007

246.19

171.22

119.93

15 January 2007

238.28

161.34

110.68

22 January 2007

231.45

157.79

110.26

29 January 2007

230.73

167.95

116.55

5 February 2007

232.61

175.47

126.73

12 February 2007

236.89

181.79

125.27

19 February 2007

241.36

186.29

125.80

26 February 2007

248.17

195.29

132.74

5 March 2007

258.43

201.43

130.15

12 March 2007

261.89

198.39

128.46

19 March 2007

261.47

196.80

124.43

26 March 2007

260.91

199.04

137.30

2 April 2007

266.47

206.58

144.20

9 April 2007

271.84

214.29

135.90

16 April 2007

275.15

217.49

141.02

23 April 2007

273.02

211.60

144.02

30 April 2007

283.36

230.52

145.51

7 May 2007

291.81

232.58

137.50

14 May 2007

296.85

249.98

139.74

21 May 2007

309.27

259.17

148.50

28 May 2007

310.94

252.17

143.39

4 June 2007

308.36

242.97

149.50

11 June 2007

302.89

225.87

148.81

18 June 2007

298.64

233.81

156.59

25 June 2007

296.93

236.55

155.28

2 July 2007

295.30

232.55

159.18

9 July 2007

298.17

245.74

162.07

16 July 2007

305.63

236.97

166.61

23 July 2007

295.28

225.11

168.02

30 July 2007

284.38

216.93

172.67

6 August 2007

277.88

213.37

162.37

13 August 2007

268.49

206.66

159.75

20 August 2007

267.50

218.71

157.60

27 August 2007

262.64

215.87

159.63

3 September 2007

266.17

225.42

166.52

10 September 2007

267.20

220.77

170.49

17 September 2007

263.20

221.99

177.41

24 September 2007

269.36

227.32

181.71

1 October 2007

272.27

221.25

177.73

8 October 2007

275.78

221.35

175.77

15 October 2007

280.29

224.14

190.62

22 October 2007

288.67

230.64

193.05

29 October 2007

291.86

240.01

206.45

5 November 2007

304.23

257.73

208.50

12 November 2007

312.31

262.72

210.96

19 November 2007

310.29

251.63

212.91

26 November 2007

313.42

258.47

216.60

3 December 2007

313.66

239.24

198.78

10 December 2007

311.39

241.21

196.40

17 December 2007

314.94

249.09

202.72

24 December 2007

314.18

254.48

209.72

31 December 2007

321.26

261.80

216.11

7 January 2008

326.65

264.07

213.22

14 January 2008

322.34

248.52

209.86

21 January 2008

316.91

248.29

199.90

28 January 2008

312.32

251.38

203.17

4 February 2008

311.83

249.21

199.81

11 February 2008

309.44

253.42

207.90

18 February 2008

316.88

264.31

221.37

25 February 2008

323.93

268.28

219.50

3 March 2008

325.21

267.14

227.01

10 March 2008

329.60

271.34

238.05

17 March 2008

333.53

267.91

232.30

24 March 2008

327.42

261.88

222.90

31 March 2008

326.14

266.47

225.60

7 April 2008

325.97

268.97

234.75

14 April 2008

327.30

270.26

246.32

21 April 2008

336.50

284.62

257.72

28 April 2008

346.12

292.32

261.96

5 May 2008

347.29

288.36

263.92

12 May 2008

358.37

311.18

275.06

19 May 2008

365.72

314.39

280.68

26 May 2008

382.50

330.14

286.86

2 June 2008

388.86

329.65

284.44

9 June 2008

397.62

341.43

299.53

16 June 2008

404.38

337.59

302.11

* Regular grade seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.  Return to table
** 60% WTI, 40% Maya heavy crude.  Return to table

Figure: Gasoline Inventories
Millions of barrels

Period

Excluding ethanol Adjusted for ethanol use* Lower bound of average historical range Upper bound of average historical range

January 2005

222.16

ND

209.59

221.06

February 2005

229.30

ND

207.85

219.32

March 2005

213.66

ND

199.11

210.58

April 2005

217.81

ND

202.37

213.84

May 2005

218.27

ND

206.81

218.28

June 2005

217.62

ND

206.19

217.66

July 2005

206.86

ND

203.51

214.98

August 2005

191.14

ND

192.94

204.41

September 2005

196.15

ND

196.49

207.96

October 2005

200.96

ND

192.02

203.48

November 2005

205.26

ND

201.01

212.48

December 2005

208.33

ND

202.46

213.93

January 2006

220.43

223.16

209.59

221.06

February 2006

222.37

225.12

207.85

219.32

March 2006

208.72

211.51

199.11

210.58

April 2006

206.86

210.90

202.37

213.84

May 2006

214.16

218.54

206.81

218.28

June 2006

213.29

217.94

206.19

217.66

July 2006

208.86

213.47

203.51

214.98

August 2006

208.99

213.69

192.94

204.41

September 2006

214.13

218.95

196.49

207.96

October 2006

204.60

209.29

192.02

203.48

November 2006

204.03

208.64

201.01

212.48

December 2006

211.81

216.62

202.46

213.93

January 2007

227.93

233.02

209.59

221.06

February 2007

214.96

219.79

207.85

219.32

March 2007

201.21

205.72

199.11

210.58

April 2007

196.84

201.13

202.37

213.84

May 2007

202.84

207.15

206.81

218.28

June 2007

204.91

209.21

206.19

217.66

July 2007

204.82

209.30

203.51

214.98

August 2007

193.54

197.67

192.94

204.41

September 2007

198.72

202.96

196.49

207.96

October 2007

196.37

200.80

192.02

203.48

November 2007

201.71

206.26

201.01

212.48

December 2007

215.05

220.36

202.46

213.93

January 2008

231.25

236.90

209.59

221.06

February 2008

233.76

239.43

207.85

219.32

March 2008

221.20

226.33

199.11

210.58

28 March 2008

224.71

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

202.37

213.84

April 2008
4 April 2008

221.27

ND

ND

ND

11 April 2008

215.75

220.60

ND

ND

18 April 2008

212.57

217.25

ND

ND

25 April 2008

211.09

215.77

ND

ND

ND

ND

206.81

218.28

2 May 2008

211.88

216.75

ND

ND

9 May 2008

210.17

215.00

ND

ND

16 May 2008

209.41

214.32

ND

ND

23 May 2008

206.16

210.82

ND

ND

30 May 2008

209.09

213.80

ND

ND

May 2008

June 2008

ND

ND

206.19

217.66

6 June 2008

210.09

214.80

ND

ND

13 June 2008

208.91

ND

ND

ND

ND

ND

203.51

214.98

July 2008

Note. Shaded region is average historical range as calculated by DOE. Monthly data through March 2008, weekly data thereafter, as indicated by line weights.
* Adjustment for approximate amount of fuel ethanol to be blended with RBOB component of inventories; estimated by FRB staff.  Return to table

Figure: Ethanol Prices: Near-futures
price, daily
Cents per gallon

Date
23 March 2005

Near-futures price
122.0

24 March 2005

124.5

28 March 2005

123.0

29 March 2005

122.5

30 March 2005

121.5

31 March 2005

123.0

1 April 2005

121.5

4 April 2005

120.0

5 April 2005

120.5

6 April 2005

120.0

7 April 2005

116.0

8 April 2005

115.0

11 April 2005

117.0

12 April 2005

117.0

13 April 2005

117.0

14 April 2005

117.0

15 April 2005

117.0

18 April 2005

117.0

19 April 2005

119.0

20 April 2005

119.0

21 April 2005

119.0

22 April 2005

119.0

25 April 2005

119.0

26 April 2005

119.0

27 April 2005

116.0

28 April 2005

115.0

29 April 2005

115.0

2 May 2005

115.0

3 May 2005

118.0

4 May 2005

118.0

5 May 2005

118.0

6 May 2005

118.0

9 May 2005

118.0

10 May 2005

118.0

11 May 2005

118.0

12 May 2005

116.0

13 May 2005

116.0

16 May 2005

116.0

17 May 2005

117.0

18 May 2005

118.0

19 May 2005

119.0

20 May 2005

117.0

23 May 2005

118.0

24 May 2005

118.0

25 May 2005

119.0

26 May 2005

119.0

27 May 2005

120.0

31 May 2005

120.0

1 June 2005

121.0

2 June 2005

122.5

3 June 2005

121.0

6 June 2005

121.0

7 June 2005

123.0

8 June 2005

122.0

9 June 2005

122.0

10 June 2005

123.0

13 June 2005

123.0

14 June 2005

123.0

15 June 2005

124.0

16 June 2005

129.0

17 June 2005

130.0

20 June 2005

136.0

21 June 2005

138.0

22 June 2005

138.0

23 June 2005

141.0

24 June 2005

141.0

27 June 2005

141.0

28 June 2005

144.0

29 June 2005

149.0

30 June 2005

147.0

1 July 2005

149.0

5 July 2005

149.0

6 July 2005

149.0

7 July 2005

153.0

8 July 2005

159.0

11 July 2005

162.0

12 July 2005

165.0

13 July 2005

162.0

14 July 2005

163.0

15 July 2005

162.0

18 July 2005

170.0

19 July 2005

178.0

20 July 2005

174.0

21 July 2005

175.0

22 July 2005

174.0

25 July 2005

176.0

26 July 2005

174.0

27 July 2005

175.0

28 July 2005

175.0

29 July 2005

177.0

1 August 2005

178.0

2 August 2005

175.0

3 August 2005

183.0

4 August 2005

184.0

5 August 2005

182.0

8 August 2005

183.0

9 August 2005

186.5

10 August 2005

185.0

11 August 2005

189.5

12 August 2005

186.5

15 August 2005

188.5

16 August 2005

191.5

17 August 2005

191.5

18 August 2005

195.0

19 August 2005

196.5

22 August 2005

198.5

23 August 2005

197.5

24 August 2005

197.5

25 August 2005

197.4

26 August 2005

198.0

29 August 2005

203.0

30 August 2005

215.0

31 August 2005

230.0

1 September 2005

270.0

2 September 2005

260.0

6 September 2005

253.0

7 September 2005

254.0

8 September 2005

251.5

9 September 2005

258.0

12 September 2005

250.0

13 September 2005

247.5

14 September 2005

238.0

15 September 2005

229.0

16 September 2005

230.5

19 September 2005

231.0

20 September 2005

232.5

21 September 2005

235.5

22 September 2005

244.0

23 September 2005

245.0

26 September 2005

242.0

27 September 2005

240.0

28 September 2005

241.5

29 September 2005

241.5

30 September 2005

243.0

3 October 2005

242.0

4 October 2005

250.0

5 October 2005

247.0

6 October 2005

230.0

7 October 2005

235.0

10 October 2005

224.0

11 October 2005

224.5

12 October 2005

219.5

13 October 2005

210.0

14 October 2005

197.5

17 October 2005

202.7

18 October 2005

203.0

19 October 2005

203.0

20 October 2005

204.0

21 October 2005

205.0

24 October 2005

203.0

25 October 2005

210.0

26 October 2005

214.0

27 October 2005

216.0

28 October 2005

220.0

31 October 2005

222.0

1 November 2005

223.0

2 November 2005

219.0

3 November 2005

213.0

4 November 2005

217.5

7 November 2005

226.0

8 November 2005

216.0

9 November 2005

220.5

10 November 2005

215.5

11 November 2005

212.0

14 November 2005

212.0

15 November 2005

202.0

16 November 2005

201.5

17 November 2005

201.0

18 November 2005

197.0

21 November 2005

199.5

22 November 2005

199.0

23 November 2005

193.0

25 November 2005

190.0

28 November 2005

191.0

29 November 2005

191.5

30 November 2005

191.0

1 December 2005

190.0

2 December 2005

192.0

5 December 2005

191.5

6 December 2005

196.5

7 December 2005

198.0

8 December 2005

197.5

9 December 2005

206.0

12 December 2005

206.0

13 December 2005

200.0

14 December 2005

209.0

15 December 2005

198.0

16 December 2005

198.0

19 December 2005

200.0

20 December 2005

203.0

21 December 2005

201.0

22 December 2005

200.0

23 December 2005

201.5

27 December 2005

203.0

28 December 2005

204.0

29 December 2005

208.0

30 December 2005

209.0

3 January 2006

212.0

4 January 2006

212.0

5 January 2006

210.0

6 January 2006

217.0

9 January 2006

225.0

10 January 2006

230.0

11 January 2006

235.0

12 January 2006

227.0

13 January 2006

233.0

17 January 2006

248.0

18 January 2006

258.0

19 January 2006

248.0

20 January 2006

249.0

23 January 2006

249.0

24 January 2006

246.0

25 January 2006

246.0

26 January 2006

244.5

27 January 2006

247.0

30 January 2006

249.5

31 January 2006

249.0

1 February 2006

250.0

2 February 2006

250.0

3 February 2006

255.0

6 February 2006

260.0

7 February 2006

257.5

8 February 2006

259.0

9 February 2006

260.0

10 February 2006

270.0

13 February 2006

273.0

14 February 2006

270.0

15 February 2006

258.0

16 February 2006

250.0

17 February 2006

247.0

21 February 2006

249.0

22 February 2006

247.0

23 February 2006

246.0

24 February 2006

248.0

27 February 2006

250.5

28 February 2006

242.0

1 March 2006

243.0

2 March 2006

242.0

3 March 2006

244.5

6 March 2006

247.0

7 March 2006

242.0

8 March 2006

240.0

9 March 2006

245.0

10 March 2006

240.0

13 March 2006

241.5

14 March 2006

242.0

15 March 2006

243.0

16 March 2006

240.0

17 March 2006

242.0

20 March 2006

239.0

21 March 2006

240.0

22 March 2006

243.0

23 March 2006

246.0

24 March 2006

247.0

27 March 2006

246.0

28 March 2006

248.0

29 March 2006

249.5

30 March 2006

252.0

31 March 2006

256.5

3 April 2006

262.0

4 April 2006

255.0

5 April 2006

258.0

6 April 2006

265.0

7 April 2006

265.0

10 April 2006

267.5

11 April 2006

273.0

12 April 2006

273.0

13 April 2006

270.5

17 April 2006

272.5

18 April 2006

274.0

19 April 2006

276.0

20 April 2006

273.0

21 April 2006

274.0

24 April 2006

267.0

25 April 2006

264.0

26 April 2006

264.0

27 April 2006

262.0

28 April 2006

272.5

1 May 2006

272.0

2 May 2006

279.0

3 May 2006

275.0

4 May 2006

271.0

5 May 2006

277.0

8 May 2006

282.5

9 May 2006

291.5

10 May 2006

295.0

11 May 2006

295.0

12 May 2006

310.0

15 May 2006

285.0

16 May 2006

288.5

17 May 2006

297.5

18 May 2006

303.0

19 May 2006

314.0

22 May 2006

317.0

23 May 2006

323.0

24 May 2006

330.0

25 May 2006

333.0

26 May 2006

342.0

30 May 2006

351.0

31 May 2006

363.0

1 June 2006

362.0

2 June 2006

368.0

5 June 2006

352.5

6 June 2006

351.5

7 June 2006

370.0

8 June 2006

370.0

9 June 2006

372.5

12 June 2006

380.0

13 June 2006

397.5

14 June 2006

406.0

15 June 2006

380.5

16 June 2006

394.0

19 June 2006

408.0

20 June 2006

423.0

21 June 2006

408.0

22 June 2006

393.0

23 June 2006

383.0

26 June 2006

368.0

27 June 2006

354.0

28 June 2006

339.0

29 June 2006

337.0

30 June 2006

340.0

3 July 2006

322.0

5 July 2006

311.0

6 July 2006

330.0

7 July 2006

335.0

10 July 2006

360.5

11 July 2006

349.0

12 July 2006

315.0

13 July 2006

315.0

14 July 2006

305.0

17 July 2006

300.0

18 July 2006

296.0

19 July 2006

292.0

20 July 2006

288.0

21 July 2006

280.0

24 July 2006

280.0

25 July 2006

260.8

26 July 2006

262.4

27 July 2006

251.0

28 July 2006

253.0

31 July 2006

255.9

1 August 2006

245.0

2 August 2006

248.0

3 August 2006

255.0

4 August 2006

256.0

7 August 2006

259.0

8 August 2006

251.0

9 August 2006

252.0

10 August 2006

248.0

11 August 2006

255.5

14 August 2006

254.0

15 August 2006

253.9

16 August 2006

252.0

17 August 2006

240.7

18 August 2006

242.5

21 August 2006

242.5

22 August 2006

235.0

23 August 2006

231.3

24 August 2006

230.0

25 August 2006

228.5

28 August 2006

228.3

29 August 2006

226.0

30 August 2006

219.0

31 August 2006

219.0

1 September 2006

218.5

5 September 2006

215.0

6 September 2006

211.0

7 September 2006

208.0

8 September 2006

204.0

11 September 2006

201.5

12 September 2006

187.0

13 September 2006

187.0

14 September 2006

186.0

15 September 2006

186.0

18 September 2006

184.5

19 September 2006

184.0

20 September 2006

179.0

21 September 2006

177.0

22 September 2006

173.5

25 September 2006

172.0

26 September 2006

168.0

27 September 2006

172.0

28 September 2006

175.0

29 September 2006

176.5

2 October 2006

179.5

3 October 2006

181.2

4 October 2006

180.2

5 October 2006

183.5

6 October 2006

186.0

9 October 2006

189.0

10 October 2006

189.5

11 October 2006

185.0

12 October 2006

185.0

13 October 2006

188.0

16 October 2006

188.5

17 October 2006

189.0

18 October 2006

194.0

19 October 2006

196.0

20 October 2006

199.0

23 October 2006

203.5

24 October 2006

211.5

25 October 2006

218.0

26 October 2006

211.4

27 October 2006

204.0

30 October 2006

208.0

31 October 2006

201.5

1 November 2006

202.5

2 November 2006

203.5

3 November 2006

205.0

6 November 2006

207.0

7 November 2006

212.0

8 November 2006

212.0

9 November 2006

212.0

10 November 2006

212.0

13 November 2006

212.0

14 November 2006

212.0

15 November 2006

210.5

16 November 2006

212.0

17 November 2006

208.5

20 November 2006

212.0

21 November 2006

218.0

22 November 2006

217.0

24 November 2006

217.5

27 November 2006

219.7

28 November 2006

221.5

29 November 2006

226.0

30 November 2006

225.0

1 December 2006

231.5

4 December 2006

238.5

5 December 2006

245.0

6 December 2006

224.0

7 December 2006

223.5

8 December 2006

223.5

11 December 2006

225.0

12 December 2006

224.5

13 December 2006

224.0

14 December 2006

228.5

15 December 2006

233.0

18 December 2006

235.0

19 December 2006

235.0

20 December 2006

238.5

21 December 2006

240.7

22 December 2006

239.0

26 December 2006

236.3

27 December 2006

242.6

28 December 2006

243.5

29 December 2006

249.3

3 January 2007

249.0

4 January 2007

244.2

5 January 2007

226.0

8 January 2007

224.9

9 January 2007

216.9

10 January 2007

203.9

11 January 2007

202.9

12 January 2007

207.9

16 January 2007

199.0

17 January 2007

193.8

18 January 2007

187.0

19 January 2007

187.9

22 January 2007

187.0

23 January 2007

189.0

24 January 2007

193.0

25 January 2007

194.0

26 January 2007

194.0

29 January 2007

194.5

30 January 2007

198.5

31 January 2007

198.0

1 February 2007

201.0

2 February 2007

202.5

5 February 2007

208.5

6 February 2007

205.5

7 February 2007

205.5

8 February 2007

202.5

9 February 2007

205.5

12 February 2007

202.5

13 February 2007

204.5

14 February 2007

204.5

15 February 2007

208.0

16 February 2007

209.8

20 February 2007

209.3

21 February 2007

210.8

22 February 2007

216.3

23 February 2007

214.0

26 February 2007

220.0

27 February 2007

226.0

28 February 2007

225.8

1 March 2007

228.0

2 March 2007

229.5

5 March 2007

232.0

6 March 2007

221.5

7 March 2007

232.0

8 March 2007

237.0

9 March 2007

228.0

12 March 2007

233.0

13 March 2007

238.0

14 March 2007

237.0

15 March 2007

232.0

16 March 2007

232.0

19 March 2007

233.0

20 March 2007

230.5

21 March 2007

230.0

22 March 2007

230.0

23 March 2007

230.0

26 March 2007

233.0

27 March 2007

230.0

28 March 2007

225.5

29 March 2007

227.0

30 March 2007

219.5

2 April 2007

219.4

3 April 2007

214.0

4 April 2007

212.0

5 April 2007

210.0

9 April 2007

212.6

10 April 2007

216.6

11 April 2007

223.7

12 April 2007

228.0

13 April 2007

220.5

16 April 2007

220.3

17 April 2007

217.5

18 April 2007

219.1

19 April 2007

215.6

20 April 2007

211.0

23 April 2007

215.0

24 April 2007

218.6

25 April 2007

222.2

26 April 2007

219.0

27 April 2007

216.1

30 April 2007

216.2

1 May 2007

221.5

2 May 2007

220.3

3 May 2007

225.0

4 May 2007

210.6

7 May 2007

209.5

8 May 2007

210.0

9 May 2007

210.0

10 May 2007

214.0

11 May 2007

212.6

14 May 2007

216.5

15 May 2007

215.5

16 May 2007

213.3

17 May 2007

214.0

18 May 2007

217.3

21 May 2007

217.5

22 May 2007

215.0

23 May 2007

215.5

24 May 2007

217.5

25 May 2007

220.6

29 May 2007

223.0

30 May 2007

224.0

31 May 2007

219.0

1 June 2007

217.0

4 June 2007

214.3

5 June 2007

212.0

6 June 2007

199.1

7 June 2007

198.5

8 June 2007

192.0

11 June 2007

192.6

12 June 2007

192.6

13 June 2007

197.4

14 June 2007

204.9

15 June 2007

204.9

18 June 2007

199.8

19 June 2007

195.0

20 June 2007

195.2

21 June 2007

196.9

22 June 2007

197.5

25 June 2007

196.0

26 June 2007

193.4

27 June 2007

192.0

28 June 2007

195.0

29 June 2007

195.0

2 July 2007

199.0

3 July 2007

197.5

5 July 2007

199.7

6 July 2007

196.3

9 July 2007

193.9

10 July 2007

198.0

11 July 2007

197.2

12 July 2007

199.9

13 July 2007

201.9

16 July 2007

199.6

17 July 2007

199.3

18 July 2007

201.3

19 July 2007

199.0

20 July 2007

200.9

23 July 2007

196.3

24 July 2007

194.0

25 July 2007

197.0

26 July 2007

197.9

27 July 2007

196.4

30 July 2007

192.5

31 July 2007

198.7

1 August 2007

193.0

2 August 2007

191.5

3 August 2007

190.5

6 August 2007

182.2

7 August 2007

183.9

8 August 2007

184.5

9 August 2007

183.6

10 August 2007

183.4

13 August 2007

185.9

14 August 2007

182.0

15 August 2007

185.4

16 August 2007

180.0

17 August 2007

181.2

20 August 2007

172.9

21 August 2007

172.4

22 August 2007

172.8

23 August 2007

172.7

24 August 2007

172.1

27 August 2007

172.9

28 August 2007

168.2

29 August 2007

171.9

30 August 2007

169.0

31 August 2007

167.0

4 September 2007

166.3

5 September 2007

165.0

6 September 2007

164.0

7 September 2007

154.0

10 September 2007

155.8

11 September 2007

159.3

12 September 2007

158.8

13 September 2007

160.8

14 September 2007

160.8

17 September 2007

161.5

18 September 2007

161.0

19 September 2007

159.0

20 September 2007

159.9

21 September 2007

157.5

24 September 2007

155.0

25 September 2007

154.0

26 September 2007

151.5

27 September 2007

154.9

28 September 2007

155.0

1 October 2007

154.6

2 October 2007

158.5

3 October 2007

156.5

4 October 2007

157.2

5 October 2007

157.9

8 October 2007

154.5

9 October 2007

155.5

10 October 2007

154.5

11 October 2007

157.0

12 October 2007

157.5

15 October 2007

160.0

16 October 2007

161.0

17 October 2007

163.1

18 October 2007

165.0

19 October 2007

166.0

22 October 2007

169.0

23 October 2007

170.0

24 October 2007

173.0

25 October 2007

176.0

26 October 2007

176.8

29 October 2007

179.0

30 October 2007

175.0

31 October 2007

179.0

1 November 2007

179.5

2 November 2007

182.0

5 November 2007

187.5

6 November 2007

182.7

7 November 2007

186.9

8 November 2007

185.5

9 November 2007

187.2

12 November 2007

186.0

13 November 2007

183.0

14 November 2007

185.5

15 November 2007

186.8

16 November 2007

186.5

19 November 2007

186.5

20 November 2007

192.0

21 November 2007

191.6

23 November 2007

190.0

26 November 2007

195.0

27 November 2007

196.8

28 November 2007

193.0

29 November 2007

191.5

30 November 2007

195.0

3 December 2007

195.0

4 December 2007

198.0

5 December 2007

196.5

6 December 2007

187.9

7 December 2007

188.5

10 December 2007

191.9

11 December 2007

194.0

12 December 2007

197.0

13 December 2007

204.9

14 December 2007

208.1

17 December 2007

211.0

18 December 2007

213.4

19 December 2007

216.4

20 December 2007

218.0

21 December 2007

222.0

24 December 2007

221.9

26 December 2007

230.5

27 December 2007

230.0

28 December 2007

233.5

31 December 2007

236.8

2 January 2008

242.0

3 January 2008

235.5

4 January 2008

230.0

7 January 2008

214.0

8 January 2008

220.2

9 January 2008

221.0

10 January 2008

212.0

11 January 2008

221.0

14 January 2008

227.0

15 January 2008

225.0

16 January 2008

218.5

17 January 2008

222.0

18 January 2008

224.0

22 January 2008

220.0

23 January 2008

218.0

24 January 2008

217.7

25 January 2008

220.2

28 January 2008

220.2

29 January 2008

218.0

30 January 2008

219.5

31 January 2008

215.5

1 February 2008

215.3

4 February 2008

215.0

5 February 2008

214.0

6 February 2008

210.0

7 February 2008

210.0

8 February 2008

210.0

11 February 2008

214.3

12 February 2008

216.0

13 February 2008

219.0

14 February 2008

221.7

15 February 2008

223.3

19 February 2008

230.3

20 February 2008

229.0

21 February 2008

227.3

22 February 2008

226.3

25 February 2008

234.5

26 February 2008

232.0

27 February 2008

232.0

28 February 2008

236.2

29 February 2008

236.0

3 March 2008

240.1

4 March 2008

240.0

5 March 2008

235.4

6 March 2008

235.5

7 March 2008

235.0

10 March 2008

238.9

11 March 2008

240.8

12 March 2008

245.0

13 March 2008

248.8

14 March 2008

247.1

17 March 2008

236.9

18 March 2008

242.0

19 March 2008

234.5

20 March 2008

236.0

24 March 2008

242.0

25 March 2008

245.0

26 March 2008

249.3

27 March 2008

249.7

28 March 2008

248.3

31 March 2008

245.0

1 April 2008

248.2

2 April 2008

252.3

3 April 2008

250.8

4 April 2008

251.6

7 April 2008

251.5

8 April 2008

251.4

9 April 2008

255.5

10 April 2008

252.5

11 April 2008

248.0

14 April 2008

249.1

15 April 2008

253.3

16 April 2008

254.2

17 April 2008

254.1

18 April 2008

255.5

21 April 2008

254.0

22 April 2008

256.6

23 April 2008

255.4

24 April 2008

251.0

25 April 2008

251.1

28 April 2008

253.6

29 April 2008

249.1

30 April 2008

250.4

1 May 2008

249.0

2 May 2008

248.0

5 May 2008

252.5

6 May 2008

254.8

7 May 2008

255.9

8 May 2008

259.5

9 May 2008

260.4

12 May 2008

257.7

13 May 2008

253.9

14 May 2008

249.1

15 May 2008

245.4

16 May 2008

247.6

19 May 2008

245.8

20 May 2008

248.1

21 May 2008

253.3

22 May 2008

250.4

23 May 2008

250.1

27 May 2008

248.5

28 May 2008

249.8

29 May 2008

240.6

30 May 2008

239.1

2 June 2008

240.8

3 June 2008

233.0

4 June 2008

230.0

5 June 2008

234.2

6 June 2008

245.1

9 June 2008

245.8

10 June 2008

249.8

11 June 2008

262.0

12 June 2008

269.1

13 June 2008

279.9

16 June 2008

285.9

17 June 2008

288.6

Source. Chicago Board of Trade.

Figure: Ethanol Prices: Monthly futures,
June 17
Cents per gallon

Period

Monthly futures, June 17

July 2008

288.6

August 2008

288.0

September 2008

287.4

October 2008

287.5

November 2008

287.0

December 2008

287.0

January 2009

285.7

February 2009

282.5

Source. Chicago Board of Trade.

Figure: PCE Food Prices
12-month percent change

Period
January 2005

Food and beverages Ex. food and energy
2.63

2.29

February 2005

2.39

2.25

March 2005

2.34

2.27

April 2005

2.80

2.13

May 2005

2.19

2.19

June 2005

2.04

2.07

July 2005

2.05

2.08

August 2005

1.97

2.11

September 2005

2.22

2.16

October 2005

2.06

2.18

November 2005

2.12

2.16

December 2005

2.19

2.19

January 2006

2.50

2.06

February 2006

2.53

2.02

March 2006

2.43

2.04

April 2006

1.78

2.20

May 2006

2.02

2.17

June 2006

2.30

2.34

July 2006

2.27

2.32

August 2006

2.44

2.45

September 2006

2.48

2.44

October 2006

2.51

2.38

November 2006

2.24

2.23

December 2006

2.10

2.26

January 2007

2.37

2.44

February 2007

2.96

2.46

March 2007

3.19

2.26

April 2007

3.45

2.09

May 2007

3.55

2.01

June 2007

3.76

1.91

July 2007

3.87

1.95

August 2007

4.05

1.88

September 2007

4.17

1.94

October 2007

4.15

1.98

November 2007

4.53

2.11

December 2007

4.68

2.15

January 2008

4.65

1.99

February 2008

4.42

1.94

March 2008

4.33

2.06

April 2008

4.92

2.09

May 2008*

4.86

2.14

* Staff estimate.  Return to table
Source. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure: Spot Agricultural Commodity
Prices
Dollars per bushel

Period

Corn Soybeans

4 January 2005

1.86

5.20

11 January 2005

1.91

5.42

18 January 2005

1.80

5.13

25 January 2005

1.86

5.30

1 February 2005

1.84

5.09

8 February 2005

1.81

5.05

15 February 2005

1.86

5.34

22 February 2005

1.93

5.63

1 March 2005

1.93

5.91

8 March 2005

1.92

6.01

15 March 2005

2.05

6.54

22 March 2005

1.97

6.01

29 March 2005

1.99

5.99

5 April 2005

1.88

5.94

12 April 2005

1.92

5.97

19 April 2005

1.97

6.16

26 April 2005

1.99

6.26

3 May 2005

1.87

6.11

10 May 2005

1.89

6.21

17 May 2005

1.90

6.09

24 May 2005

1.99

6.37

31 May 2005

2.01

6.67

7 June 2005

1.99

6.64

14 June 2005

1.94

6.70

21 June 2005

2.12

7.24

28 June 2005

2.01

6.55

5 July 2005

2.14

7.04

12 July 2005

2.15

6.94

19 July 2005

2.30

6.79

26 July 2005

2.16

6.75

2 August 2005

2.11

6.88

9 August 2005

1.99

6.39

16 August 2005

1.90

6.11

23 August 2005

1.94

6.03

30 August 2005

1.87

5.89

6 September 2005

1.83

5.86

13 September 2005

1.75

5.56

20 September 2005

1.70

5.37

27 September 2005

1.66

5.42

4 October 2005

1.67

5.25

11 October 2005

1.65

5.21

18 October 2005

1.63

5.41

25 October 2005

1.67

5.46

1 November 2005

1.70

5.50

8 November 2005

1.74

5.58

15 November 2005

1.78

5.67

22 November 2005

1.74

5.50

29 November 2005

1.74

5.37

6 December 2005

1.80

5.49

13 December 2005

1.89

5.84

20 December 2005

1.94

5.91

27 December 2005

1.99

5.98

3 January 2006

2.04

6.01

10 January 2006

1.97

5.60

17 January 2006

1.92

5.43

24 January 2006

1.89

5.46

31 January 2006

2.03

5.71

7 February 2006

2.00

5.53

14 February 2006

2.03

5.56

21 February 2006

2.08

5.63

28 February 2006

2.13

5.55

7 March 2006

2.05

5.56

14 March 2006

2.05

5.56

21 March 2006

2.00

5.42

28 March 2006

2.01

5.62

4 April 2006

2.14

5.34

11 April 2006

2.23

5.37

18 April 2006

2.20

5.53

25 April 2006

2.14

5.62

2 May 2006

2.17

5.70

9 May 2006

2.12

5.72

16 May 2006

2.30

5.68

23 May 2006

2.23

5.53

30 May 2006

2.25

5.50

6 June 2006

2.22

5.60

13 June 2006

2.18

5.65

20 June 2006

2.08

5.58

27 June 2006

2.06

5.53

11 July 2006

2.37

5.77

18 July 2006

2.21

5.56

25 July 2006

2.13

5.27

1 August 2006

2.13

5.42

8 August 2006

2.09

5.23

15 August 2006

1.98

5.18

22 August 2006

1.98

5.17

29 August 2006

2.05

5.06

5 September 2006

2.11

5.12

12 September 2006

2.09

5.04

19 September 2006

2.20

5.17

26 September 2006

2.34

5.19

3 October 2006

2.38

5.07

10 October 2006

2.54

5.27

17 October 2006

3.00

5.71

24 October 2006

3.05

6.01

31 October 2006

3.05

6.10

7 November 2006

3.41

6.31

14 November 2006

3.45

6.39

21 November 2006

3.47

6.43

28 November 2006

3.68

6.57

5 December 2006

3.54

6.42

12 December 2006

3.50

6.41

19 December 2006

3.50

6.32

26 December 2006

3.45

6.38

9 January 2007

3.33

6.32

16 January 2007

3.76

6.72

23 January 2007

3.85

6.91

30 January 2007

3.82

6.85

6 February 2007

3.76

7.02

13 February 2007

3.84

7.10

20 February 2007

3.97

7.37

27 February 2007

3.89

7.30

6 March 2007

3.91

7.02

13 March 2007

3.76

7.11

20 March 2007

3.75

7.19

27 March 2007

3.61

7.12

3 April 2007

3.16

7.22

10 April 2007

3.42

7.02

17 April 2007

3.27

6.89

24 April 2007

3.40

6.77

1 May 2007

3.50

7.08

8 May 2007

3.39

6.92

15 May 2007

3.48

7.36

22 May 2007

3.47

7.52

29 May 2007

3.47

7.55

5 June 2007

3.67

7.85

12 June 2007

3.80

7.82

19 June 2007

3.83

7.81

26 June 2007

3.42

7.62

3 July 2007

3.05

8.03

10 July 2007

3.22

8.33

17 July 2007

3.02

7.67

24 July 2007

2.83

7.49

31 July 2007

2.94

7.68

7 August 2007

3.09

7.82

14 August 2007

3.05

7.89

21 August 2007

3.19

7.54

28 August 2007

3.07

7.99

4 September 2007

3.06

8.39

11 September 2007

2.98

8.55

18 September 2007

3.06

9.04

25 September 2007

3.28

9.12

2 October 2007

3.09

8.86

9 October 2007

3.06

8.93

16 October 2007

3.32

9.29

23 October 2007

3.34

9.34

30 October 2007

3.53

9.54

6 November 2007

3.70

9.92

13 November 2007

3.59

10.10

20 November 2007

3.64

10.41

27 November 2007

3.69

10.46

4 December 2007

3.81

10.50

11 December 2007

3.95

10.93

18 December 2007

4.03

11.08

8 January 2008

4.50

12.06

15 January 2008

4.72

12.32

22 January 2008

4.54

11.75

29 January 2008

4.69

12.09

5 February 2008

4.82

12.66

12 February 2008

4.72

12.61

19 February 2008

4.93

13.40

26 February 2008

5.04

14.06

4 March 2008

5.15

14.35

11 March 2008

5.34

13.30

18 March 2008

5.10

12.36

25 March 2008

5.10

12.37

1 April 2008

5.50

11.46

8 April 2008

5.57

11.94

15 April 2008

5.70

13.29

22 April 2008

5.59

13.30

29 April 2008

5.58

12.45

6 May 2008

5.62

12.25

13 May 2008

5.61

13.26

20 May 2008

5.44

12.94

27 May 2008

5.54

13.06

3 June 2008

5.66

13.24

10 June 2008

6.30

14.15

17 June 2008

6.95

15.23

As shown in the figure, the "Wheat" series begins at about $4 per bushel in 2005:Q1, increases to about 9 in 2007:Q4 and to about 13 in 2008:Q1. The series then decreases to about 8.5 in
April and increases to end at about 9.5 on June 17, 2008.
Source. Commodity Research Bureau.

Broad Measures of Inflation
(Percent change, Q1 to Q1)

Measure

2005

2006

2007

2008

Product prices
GDP price index
Less food and energy
Nonfarm business chain price index

3.3

3.2

2.9

2.2

3.3

3.1

2.9

1.9

3.3

3.3

2.3

1.5

3.5

3.6

2.6

3.2

3.2

2.9

2.8

2.0

2.8

3.1

2.3

3.4

2.3

2.0

2.4

2.0

2.4

2.9

2.2

3.4

1.8

1.6

2.2

1.8

3.0

3.7

2.4

4.2

2.3

2.1

2.6

2.4

2.6

3.2

2.2

3.7

Expenditure prices
Gross domestic purchases price index
Less food and energy
PCE price index
Less food and energy
PCE price index, market-based components
Less food and energy
CPI
Less food and energy
Chained CPI

Less food and energy

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.1

Median CPI

2.5

2.7

3.2

3.1

Trimmed mean CPI

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.9

Trimmed mean PCE

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.3

Surveys of Inflation Expectations
(Percent)

Reuters/Michigan Survey
Period

Actual
CPI
inflation1

1 year2
Mean

Professional
forecasters
(10 years) 4

5 to 10 years 3

Median

Mean

Median

CPI

PCE

2006:  Q3

3.3

4.0

3.4

3.3

3.0

2.5

…

Q4

1.9

3.5

3.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

…

2007:  Q1

2.4

3.6

3.0

3.4

2.9

2.4

2.0

Q2

2.7

4.2

3.3

3.5

3.0

2.4

2.0

Q3

2.4

4.1

3.2

3.5

3.0

2.4

2.1

Q4

4.0

4.1

3.3

3.3

2.9

2.4

2.1

2008:  Q1

4.1

4.2

3.8

3.3

3.0

2.5

2.2

Q2

n.a.

6.4

5.0

3.8

3.3

2.5

2.2

4.0

3.9

3.6

3.4

3.0

2.5

2.2

2008:  Feb.
Mar.

4.0

4.6

4.3

3.2

2.9

…

…

Apr.

3.9

5.7

4.8

3.5

3.2

…

…

May

4.2

7.0

5.2

4.0

3.4

2.5

2.2

June

n.a.

6.6

5.1

3.9

3.4

…

…

1. Percent change from the same period in the preceding year.  Return to table
2. Responses to the question, By about what percent do you expect prices to go up, on average, during the next 12 months?  Return to table
3. Responses to the question, By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up, on average, during the next 5 to 10 years?  Return to table
4. Median CPI and PCE price projections compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.  Return to table
… Not applicable.
n.a. Not available.

Measures of Expected Inflation
Figure: Survey Measures (Reuters/Michigan)
Quarterly
Percent

Period

Median, next 12 months Median, next 5 to 10 years

1978:Q1

5.97

ND

1978:Q2

6.70

ND

1978:Q3

7.40

ND

1978:Q4

7.40

ND

1979:Q1

8.63

ND

1979:Q2

9.80

ND

1979:Q3

9.80

ND

1979:Q4

9.63

ND

1980:Q1

10.20

ND

1980:Q2

9.07

ND

1980:Q3

8.77

ND

1980:Q4

9.30

ND

1981:Q1

8.43

6.67

1981:Q2

7.47

ND

1981:Q3

6.50

6.33

1981:Q4

6.43

ND

1982:Q1

4.83

5.67

1982:Q2

4.27

ND

1982:Q3

4.77

5.27

1982:Q4

4.30

ND

1983:Q1

2.53

4.90

1983:Q2

3.27

ND

1983:Q3

3.27

4.97

1983:Q4

3.57

ND

1984:Q1

3.30

4.97

1984:Q2

4.10

ND

1984:Q3

3.13

4.97

1984:Q4

3.40

ND

1985:Q1

3.00

4.73

1985:Q2

3.30

ND

1985:Q3

2.83

4.67

1985:Q4

3.30

ND

1986:Q1

2.67

ND

1986:Q2

2.67

ND

1986:Q3

2.90

ND

1986:Q4

3.00

ND

1987:Q1

3.00

ND

1987:Q2

3.23

ND

1987:Q3

3.10

ND

1987:Q4

3.20

ND

1988:Q1

3.17

ND

1988:Q2

3.43

ND

1988:Q3

4.30

ND

1988:Q4

3.83

ND

1989:Q1

3.77

ND

1989:Q2

4.23

ND

1989:Q3

3.67

ND

1989:Q4

3.53

ND

1990:Q1

3.97

ND

1990:Q2

3.60

4.30

1990:Q3

4.23

4.50

1990:Q4

4.73

4.57

1991:Q1

3.53

4.60

1991:Q2

3.20

4.37

1991:Q3

3.10

4.03

1991:Q4

2.93

3.77

1992:Q1

2.63

3.53

1992:Q2

3.00

3.77

1992:Q3

2.83

3.80

1992:Q4

2.83

3.60

1993:Q1

3.07

3.70

1993:Q2

3.13

3.60

1993:Q3

3.07

3.37

1993:Q4

3.03

3.50

1994:Q1

2.87

3.30

1994:Q2

2.93

3.33

1994:Q3

3.13

3.30

1994:Q4

3.07

3.23

1995:Q1

3.07

3.23

1995:Q2

3.07

3.27

1995:Q3

2.87

3.13

1995:Q4

2.80

3.13

1996:Q1

2.83

3.23

1996:Q2

3.00

3.13

1996:Q3

3.10

3.23

1996:Q4

3.00

3.00

1997:Q1

2.93

3.10

1997:Q2

2.90

3.00

1997:Q3

2.73

3.00

1997:Q4

2.83

3.07

1998:Q1

2.40

2.87

1998:Q2

2.57

2.80

1998:Q3

2.43

2.77

1998:Q4

2.43

2.83

1999:Q1

2.63

2.83

1999:Q2

2.67

2.83

1999:Q3

2.73

2.87

1999:Q4

2.93

2.87

2000:Q1

3.03

3.00

2000:Q2

3.03

2.83

2000:Q3

2.87

2.90

2000:Q4

2.97

2.97

2001:Q1

2.87

2.97

2001:Q2

3.10

3.03

2001:Q3

2.70

2.93

2001:Q4

1.07

2.83

2002:Q1

2.23

2.77

2002:Q2

2.73

2.87

2002:Q3

2.57

2.73

2002:Q4

2.47

2.80

2003:Q1

2.77

2.73

2003:Q2

2.17

2.73

2003:Q3

2.33

2.70

2003:Q4

2.63

2.77

2004:Q1

2.73

2.87

2004:Q2

3.27

2.80

2004:Q3

2.87

2.77

2004:Q4

2.97

2.77

2005:Q1

3.00

2.80

2005:Q2

3.23

2.90

2005:Q3

3.47

2.93

2005:Q4

3.67

3.10

2006:Q1

3.00

2.90

2006:Q2

3.53

3.07

2006:Q3

3.37

3.03

2006:Q4

3.00

3.03

2007:Q1

3.00

2.93

2007:Q2

3.33

3.03

2007:Q3

3.23

2.97

2007:Q4

3.30

2.93

2008:Q1

3.77

2.97

2008:Q2

5.03

3.33

Figure: Survey Measures (Reuters/Michigan)
Monthly
Percent

Period

Median, next 12 months Median, next 5 to 10 years

January 2005

2.9

2.7

February 2005

2.9

2.8

March 2005

3.2

2.9

April 2005

3.3

3.0

May 2005

3.2

2.9

June 2005

3.2

2.8

July 2005

3.0

2.9

August 2005

3.1

2.8

September 2005

4.3

3.1

October 2005

4.6

3.2

November 2005

3.3

3.0

December 2005

3.1

3.1

January 2006

3.0

2.9

February 2006

3.0

2.9

March 2006

3.0

2.9

April 2006

3.3

3.1

May 2006

4.0

3.2

June 2006

3.3

2.9

July 2006

3.2

2.9

August 2006

3.8

3.2

September 2006

3.1

3.0

October 2006

3.1

3.1

November 2006

3.0

3.0

December 2006

2.9

3.0

January 2007

3.0

3.0

February 2007

3.0

2.9

March 2007

3.0

2.9

April 2007

3.3

3.1

May 2007

3.3

3.1

June 2007

3.4

2.9

July 2007

3.4

3.1

August 2007

3.2

2.9

September 2007

3.1

2.9

October 2007

3.1

2.8

November 2007

3.4

2.9

December 2007

3.4

3.1

January 2008

3.4

3.0

February 2008

3.6

3.0

March 2008

4.3

2.9

April 2008

4.8

3.2

May 2008

5.2

3.4

June 2008

5.1

3.4

Figure: Inputs to Models of Inflation
Quarterly
Percent

Period

FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation* Distributed lag of core PCE inflation**

1971:Q1

3.10

4.93

1971:Q2

3.10

4.77

1971:Q3

3.10

4.70

1971:Q4

3.49

4.43

1972:Q1

3.49

3.88

1972:Q2

3.49

4.25

1972:Q3

3.49

3.80

1972:Q4

3.92

3.77

1973:Q1

3.92

3.53

1973:Q2

3.92

3.46

1973:Q3

3.92

3.97

1973:Q4

3.92

3.93

1974:Q1

4.21

3.89

1974:Q2

4.89

4.58

1974:Q3

5.07

5.87

1974:Q4

5.07

6.86

1975:Q1

5.07

7.02

1975:Q2

5.10

6.92

1975:Q3

5.14

6.93

1975:Q4

5.14

7.12

1976:Q1

4.88

7.33

1976:Q2

4.40

7.32

1976:Q3

4.50

7.02

1976:Q4

4.50

7.35

1977:Q1

4.50

7.09

1977:Q2

4.62

6.76

1977:Q3

4.85

6.29

1977:Q4

4.85

6.40

1978:Q1

5.04

6.19

1978:Q2

5.42

6.35

1978:Q3

5.42

6.42

1978:Q4

5.66

6.40

1979:Q1

6.15

6.72

1979:Q2

6.15

6.12

1979:Q3

6.72

7.14

1979:Q4

6.72

6.86

1980:Q1

6.72

7.30

1980:Q2

6.72

7.91

1980:Q3

6.72

7.92

1980:Q4

7.05

8.15

1981:Q1

7.72

8.64

1981:Q2

7.37

8.54

1981:Q3

7.12

8.27

1981:Q4

7.23

8.47

1982:Q1

6.66

8.31

1982:Q2

6.26

7.91

1982:Q3

6.27

7.57

1982:Q4

6.10

7.53

1983:Q1

5.82

7.13

1983:Q2

6.08

6.82

1983:Q3

6.13

5.67

1983:Q4

6.15

6.28

1984:Q1

6.08

5.16

1984:Q2

6.00

5.07

1984:Q3

5.55

5.06

1984:Q4

5.20

4.65

1985:Q1

4.85

4.24

1985:Q2

4.97

4.64

1985:Q3

5.20

3.98

1985:Q4

5.11

3.87

1986:Q1

4.78

3.86

1986:Q2

4.75

3.96

1986:Q3

4.62

3.76

1986:Q4

4.61

3.85

1987:Q1

4.78

3.77

1987:Q2

4.80

3.64

1987:Q3

4.98

3.70

1987:Q4

4.64

3.74

1988:Q1

4.74

3.83

1988:Q2

4.54

3.94

1988:Q3

4.42

4.22

1988:Q4

4.17

4.10

1989:Q1

4.19

4.15

1989:Q2

4.24

4.27

1989:Q3

4.03

3.96

1989:Q4

3.81

3.86

1990:Q1

3.56

4.07

1990:Q2

3.77

4.34

1990:Q3

3.89

4.57

1990:Q4

3.80

4.25

1991:Q1

3.81

3.95

1991:Q2

3.84

4.27

1991:Q3

3.58

3.82

1991:Q4

3.50

3.92

1992:Q1

3.20

3.91

1992:Q2

3.40

4.03

1992:Q3

3.25

3.70

1992:Q4

3.10

3.54

1993:Q1

3.00

3.31

1993:Q2

3.20

3.12

1993:Q3

2.95

3.24

1993:Q4

2.95

2.75

1994:Q1

2.95

2.66

1994:Q2

3.00

2.57

1994:Q3

3.00

2.64

1994:Q4

3.00

2.69

1995:Q1

2.80

2.32

1995:Q2

2.85

2.31

1995:Q3

2.70

2.31

1995:Q4

2.50

2.22

1996:Q1

2.50

2.11

1996:Q2

2.50

2.11

1996:Q3

2.50

2.06

1996:Q4

2.50

2.01

1997:Q1

2.50

2.07

1997:Q2

2.35

1.81

1997:Q3

2.50

1.87

1997:Q4

2.15

1.56

1998:Q1

2.10

1.57

1998:Q2

2.00

1.57

1998:Q3

2.00

1.44

1998:Q4

2.00

1.48

1999:Q1

1.80

1.54

1999:Q2

2.00

1.40

1999:Q3

2.00

1.48

1999:Q4

2.00

1.40

2000:Q1

2.00

1.50

2000:Q2

2.00

1.76

2000:Q3

2.00

1.49

2000:Q4

2.00

1.37

2001:Q1

2.00

1.54

2001:Q2

2.00

1.94

2001:Q3

2.00

1.79

2001:Q4

2.05

1.67

2002:Q1

2.00

2.00

2002:Q2

2.00

1.69

2002:Q3

2.00

1.82

2002:Q4

1.95

1.78

2003:Q1

2.00

1.63

2003:Q2

2.00

1.62

2003:Q3

2.00

1.64

2003:Q4

2.00

1.67

2004:Q1

2.00

1.60

2004:Q2

2.00

1.86

2004:Q3

2.00

1.92

2004:Q4

2.00

1.74

2005:Q1

1.95

1.86

2005:Q2

2.00

2.01

2005:Q3

2.00

1.97

2005:Q4

2.00

1.92

2006:Q1

2.00

2.16

2006:Q2

2.00

2.10

2006:Q3

2.00

2.39

2006:Q4

2.00

2.26

2007:Q1

2.00

2.11

2007:Q2

2.00

2.28

2007:Q3

2.10

1.98

2007:Q4

2.10

2.08

2008:Q1

2.20

2.24

2008:Q2

2.20

2.16

* For 2007 forward, the median projection for PCE inflation over the next 10 years from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF); for 1991 to 2006, the equivalent SPF projection for the CPI;
for 1981 to 1991, a related survey for the CPI conducted by Richard Hoey; and for the period preceding 1981, a model-based estimate constructed by Board staff. The survey data before 2007
are adjusted down 0.5 percentage point to put the CPI projections approximately on a PCE basis.  Return to table
** Derived from one of the reduced-form Phillips curves used by Board staff.  Return to table

Figure: Inflation Compensation from TIPS
Quarterly
Percent

Period

Next 5 years 5 to 10 years ahead

2001:Q1

1.58

2.14

2001:Q2

1.90

2.48

2001:Q3

1.56

2.35

2001:Q4

1.21

2.50

2002:Q1

1.46

2.68

2002:Q2

1.75

2.76

2002:Q3

1.33

2.76

2002:Q4

1.17

2.75

2003:Q1

1.51

2.74

2003:Q2

1.37

2.47

2003:Q3

1.73

2.91

2003:Q4

2.02

3.11

2004:Q1

2.12

2.88

2004:Q2

2.37

3.11

2004:Q3

2.33

2.90

2004:Q4

2.51

2.79

2005:Q1

2.68

2.70

2005:Q2

2.50

2.57

2005:Q3

2.41

2.48

2005:Q4

2.53

2.58

2006:Q1

2.52

2.54

2006:Q2

2.56

2.69

2006:Q3

2.48

2.66

2006:Q4

2.24

2.55

2007:Q1

2.28

2.49

2007:Q2

2.28

2.54

2007:Q3

2.14

2.69

2007:Q4

2.19

2.76

2008:Q1

2.10

2.94

Note. Based on a comparison of an estimated TIPS yield curve with an estimated nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve, with an adjustment for the indexation-lag effect.

Figure: Inflation Compensation from TIPS
Weekly
Percent

Period

Next 5 years 5 to 10 years ahead

11 January 2005

2.61

2.73

18 January 2005

2.60

2.69

25 January 2005

2.58

2.69

1 February 2005

2.61

2.67

8 February 2005

2.58

2.55

15 February 2005

2.64

2.57

22 February 2005

2.69

2.62

1 March 2005

2.74

2.68

8 March 2005

2.77

2.74

15 March 2005

2.79

2.80

22 March 2005

2.80

2.82

29 March 2005

2.74

2.79

5 April 2005

2.74

2.75

12 April 2005

2.69

2.71

19 April 2005

2.62

2.75

26 April 2005

2.64

2.69

3 May 2005

2.58

2.63

10 May 2005

2.57

2.65

17 May 2005

2.50

2.61

24 May 2005

2.42

2.54

31 May 2005

2.41

2.51

7 June 2005

2.37

2.47

14 June 2005

2.35

2.45

21 June 2005

2.39

2.46

28 June 2005

2.36

2.37

5 July 2005

2.37

2.39

12 July 2005

2.37

2.37

19 July 2005

2.29

2.37

26 July 2005

2.32

2.44

2 August 2005

2.35

2.47

9 August 2005

2.38

2.48

16 August 2005

2.35

2.47

23 August 2005

2.34

2.49

30 August 2005

2.41

2.48

6 September 2005

2.44

2.47

13 September 2005

2.49

2.51

20 September 2005

2.53

2.57

27 September 2005

2.54

2.57

4 October 2005

2.60

2.60

11 October 2005

2.54

2.54

18 October 2005

2.54

2.57

25 October 2005

2.51

2.60

1 November 2005

2.55

2.68

8 November 2005

2.63

2.76

15 November 2005

2.57

2.67

22 November 2005

2.53

2.59

29 November 2005

2.54

2.54

6 December 2005

2.55

2.57

13 December 2005

2.50

2.56

20 December 2005

2.50

2.52

27 December 2005

2.45

2.48

3 January 2006

2.47

2.45

10 January 2006

2.47

2.45

17 January 2006

2.50

2.51

24 January 2006

2.55

2.52

31 January 2006

2.56

2.57

7 February 2006

2.58

2.57

14 February 2006

2.51

2.57

21 February 2006

2.50

2.53

28 February 2006

2.54

2.51

7 March 2006

2.58

2.59

14 March 2006

2.48

2.59

21 March 2006

2.48

2.57

28 March 2006

2.46

2.55

4 April 2006

2.49

2.58

11 April 2006

2.51

2.62

18 April 2006

2.56

2.64

25 April 2006

2.55

2.72

2 May 2006

2.57

2.79

9 May 2006

2.61

2.76

16 May 2006

2.63

2.77

23 May 2006

2.58

2.73

30 May 2006

2.57

2.71

6 June 2006

2.60

2.71

13 June 2006

2.50

2.60

20 June 2006

2.50

2.64

27 June 2006

2.54

2.65

4 July 2006

2.58

2.67

11 July 2006

2.59

2.64

18 July 2006

2.58

2.62

25 July 2006

2.57

2.64

1 August 2006

2.58

2.68

8 August 2006

2.62

2.69

15 August 2006

2.62

2.72

22 August 2006

2.54

2.71

29 August 2006

2.46

2.71

5 September 2006

2.42

2.67

12 September 2006

2.35

2.65

19 September 2006

2.31

2.64

26 September 2006

2.20

2.58

3 October 2006

2.25

2.56

10 October 2006

2.22

2.57

17 October 2006

2.25

2.57

24 October 2006

2.24

2.60

31 October 2006

2.23

2.62

7 November 2006

2.23

2.62

14 November 2006

2.25

2.62

21 November 2006

2.23

2.55

28 November 2006

2.24

2.50

5 December 2006

2.28

2.53

12 December 2006

2.26

2.55

19 December 2006

2.26

2.52

26 December 2006

2.21

2.45

2 January 2007

2.25

2.46

9 January 2007

2.29

2.45

16 January 2007

2.22

2.43

23 January 2007

2.24

2.49

30 January 2007

2.32

2.55

6 February 2007

2.33

2.51

13 February 2007

2.27

2.48

20 February 2007

2.22

2.49

27 February 2007

2.30

2.49

6 March 2007

2.31

2.47

13 March 2007

2.27

2.43

20 March 2007

2.28

2.47

27 March 2007

2.32

2.54

3 April 2007

2.33

2.55

10 April 2007

2.35

2.57

17 April 2007

2.30

2.55

24 April 2007

2.23

2.51

1 May 2007

2.31

2.50

8 May 2007

2.28

2.47

15 May 2007

2.27

2.44

22 May 2007

2.24

2.43

29 May 2007

2.26

2.51

5 June 2007

2.29

2.54

12 June 2007

2.32

2.62

19 June 2007

2.28

2.64

26 June 2007

2.25

2.68

3 July 2007

2.24

2.63

10 July 2007

2.30

2.63

17 July 2007

2.28

2.62

24 July 2007

2.25

2.64

31 July 2007

2.22

2.68

7 August 2007

2.14

2.65

14 August 2007

2.13

2.68

21 August 2007

2.04

2.69

28 August 2007

2.03

2.69

4 September 2007

2.00

2.67

11 September 2007

2.00

2.69

18 September 2007

2.11

2.75

25 September 2007

2.14

2.81

2 October 2007

2.13

2.80

9 October 2007

2.15

2.78

16 October 2007

2.18

2.78

23 October 2007

2.15

2.74

30 October 2007

2.17

2.76

6 November 2007

2.28

2.77

13 November 2007

2.33

2.80

20 November 2007

2.27

2.75

27 November 2007

2.27

2.77

4 December 2007

2.20

2.74

11 December 2007

2.10

2.72

18 December 2007

2.14

2.73

25 December 2007

2.14

2.75

1 January 2008

2.17

2.73

8 January 2008

2.21

2.67

15 January 2008

2.08

2.73

22 January 2008

2.02

2.81

29 January 2008

2.03

2.96

5 February 2008

2.10

2.98

12 February 2008

2.05

3.00

19 February 2008

2.09

2.93

26 February 2008

2.22

2.93

4 March 2008

2.27

3.00

11 March 2008

2.26

3.18

18 March 2008

2.04

3.14

25 March 2008

1.88

3.00

1 April 2008

1.94

3.03

8 April 2008

1.97

3.00

15 April 2008

1.96

2.95

22 April 2008

2.00

2.90

29 April 2008

2.06

2.79

6 May 2008

2.08

2.80

13 May 2008

2.11

2.83

20 May 2008

2.23

2.84

27 May 2008

2.34

2.87

3 June 2008

2.32

2.87

10 June 2008

2.33

2.89

17 June 2008

2.45

2.80

Note. Based on a comparison of an estimated TIPS yield curve with an estimated nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve, with an adjustment for the indexation-lag effect.

Commodity Price Indexes
Figure: Journal of Commerce
Ratio scale, 2006 = 100

Period
8 January 1991

Industrials Metals
56.24

46.65

15 January 1991

56.39

45.72

22 January 1991

54.67

45.56

29 January 1991

53.67

44.97

5 February 1991

53.43

44.57

12 February 1991

53.52

45.43

19 February 1991

53.47

45.01

26 February 1991

52.55

45.18

5 March 1991

52.58

44.98

12 March 1991

52.26

44.48

19 March 1991

52.19

44.09

26 March 1991

52.17

44.05

2 April 1991

52.18

44.09

9 April 1991

52.44

43.85

16 April 1991

53.04

43.72

23 April 1991

53.15

44.05

30 April 1991

53.25

43.75

7 May 1991

53.34

42.78

14 May 1991

53.24

42.44

21 May 1991

53.24

41.74

28 May 1991

52.85

41.65

4 June 1991

52.45

41.15

11 June 1991

52.58

41.55

18 June 1991

52.81

41.57

25 June 1991

52.53

41.76

2 July 1991

52.38

41.94

9 July 1991

52.27

41.99

16 July 1991

51.82

41.58

23 July 1991

51.39

41.57

30 July 1991

51.21

41.49

6 August 1991

51.42

41.72

13 August 1991

51.33

41.85

20 August 1991

51.13

41.46

27 August 1991

51.29

41.60

3 September 1991

51.32

41.64

10 September 1991

51.34

41.76

17 September 1991

51.11

41.26

24 September 1991

51.55

41.54

1 October 1991

51.36

41.36

8 October 1991

51.39

41.14

15 October 1991

51.48

41.22

22 October 1991

51.71

41.59

29 October 1991

50.80

40.56

5 November 1991

50.61

40.20

12 November 1991

50.56

39.96

19 November 1991

50.66

40.06

26 November 1991

50.84

40.30

3 December 1991

50.90

40.13

10 December 1991

49.91

40.02

17 December 1991

49.77

40.08

24 December 1991

49.29

39.98

31 December 1991

49.63

40.42

7 January 1992

49.62

40.12

14 January 1992

49.35

40.04

21 January 1992

49.67

40.99

28 January 1992

49.21

41.60

4 February 1992

49.02

41.15

11 February 1992

50.22

41.67

18 February 1992

50.46

42.19

25 February 1992

50.12

42.32

3 March 1992

50.15

42.21

10 March 1992

50.17

42.31

17 March 1992

50.52

42.16

24 March 1992

50.79

42.19

31 March 1992

51.09

42.58

7 April 1992

51.47

42.70

14 April 1992

51.51

42.64

21 April 1992

51.73

42.62

28 April 1992

52.11

42.70

5 May 1992

52.08

42.63

12 May 1992

52.40

42.65

19 May 1992

52.71

42.90

26 May 1992

52.55

43.05

2 June 1992

52.43

43.25

9 June 1992

52.64

43.02

16 June 1992

53.03

43.33

23 June 1992

53.15

42.97

30 June 1992

53.56

44.46

7 July 1992

53.59

44.84

14 July 1992

53.27

44.52

21 July 1992

53.64

44.97

28 July 1992

54.38

45.02

4 August 1992

54.38

44.60

11 August 1992

54.19

45.24

18 August 1992

54.57

45.28

25 August 1992

54.48

45.49

1 September 1992

55.39

45.18

8 September 1992

55.35

44.76

15 September 1992

55.21

44.64

22 September 1992

55.12

44.24

29 September 1992

54.61

43.37

6 October 1992

54.00

41.92

13 October 1992

53.27

40.89

20 October 1992

53.26

40.53

27 October 1992

53.10

40.56

3 November 1992

52.47

39.77

10 November 1992

52.07

38.29

17 November 1992

52.31

38.26

24 November 1992

52.62

38.47

1 December 1992

53.35

39.42

8 December 1992

53.21

39.44

15 December 1992

52.32

39.20

22 December 1992

53.42

39.67

29 December 1992

53.18

39.80

5 January 1993

53.41

40.65

12 January 1993

53.63

41.03

19 January 1993

53.72

41.00

26 January 1993

53.93

40.97

2 February 1993

53.38

40.91

9 February 1993

54.66

41.93

16 February 1993

54.32

41.48

23 February 1993

54.35

41.35

2 March 1993

54.13

40.31

9 March 1993

55.16

40.42

16 March 1993

54.83

40.34

23 March 1993

55.18

40.58

30 March 1993

53.59

40.01

6 April 1993

53.34

39.41

13 April 1993

52.99

39.38

20 April 1993

52.84

38.52

27 April 1993

53.77

38.86

4 May 1993

52.42

38.52

11 May 1993

52.35

38.55

18 May 1993

51.14

37.87

25 May 1993

51.44

38.17

1 June 1993

50.75

37.60

8 June 1993

51.14

38.24

15 June 1993

51.22

38.09

22 June 1993

51.52

38.54

29 June 1993

51.24

38.48

6 July 1993

51.28

38.98

13 July 1993

50.84

38.47

20 July 1993

50.70

38.42

27 July 1993

51.00

38.37

3 August 1993

51.56

38.68

10 August 1993

51.56

37.85

17 August 1993

51.42

37.60

24 August 1993

51.38

37.75

31 August 1993

51.77

37.44

7 September 1993

51.40

37.56

14 September 1993

50.79

36.64

21 September 1993

50.05

35.50

28 September 1993

50.01

35.87

5 October 1993

49.88

36.29

12 October 1993

50.19

36.37

19 October 1993

50.34

37.00

26 October 1993

50.46

36.70

2 November 1993

50.55

36.72

9 November 1993

50.89

37.03

16 November 1993

51.03

36.95

23 November 1993

51.10

37.08

30 November 1993

50.81

37.09

7 December 1993

51.03

38.11

14 December 1993

51.08

39.20

21 December 1993

51.18

39.63

28 December 1993

51.36

39.67

4 January 1994

50.94

39.47

11 January 1994

51.83

39.92

18 January 1994

52.95

41.00

25 January 1994

53.47

41.22

1 February 1994

53.83

41.95

8 February 1994

54.44

42.40

15 February 1994

53.84

41.69

22 February 1994

53.60

42.40

1 March 1994

54.30

42.19

8 March 1994

54.02

41.75

15 March 1994

54.08

42.36

22 March 1994

54.37

42.83

29 March 1994

54.50

42.54

5 April 1994

54.78

42.18

12 April 1994

54.66

42.12

19 April 1994

55.35

41.73

26 April 1994

55.23

41.58

3 May 1994

55.72

42.30

10 May 1994

56.35

42.42

17 May 1994

56.86

43.28

24 May 1994

56.87

43.05

31 May 1994

56.66

42.62

7 June 1994

56.66

42.15

14 June 1994

57.72

43.60

21 June 1994

58.19

43.82

28 June 1994

57.54

42.62

5 July 1994

58.25

43.47

12 July 1994

58.74

44.50

19 July 1994

59.74

44.88

26 July 1994

59.77

44.58

2 August 1994

59.44

43.71

9 August 1994

60.02

44.45

16 August 1994

60.63

44.51

23 August 1994

61.07

44.48

30 August 1994

61.50

45.58

6 September 1994

62.25

46.47

13 September 1994

62.47

46.76

20 September 1994

62.58

46.94

27 September 1994

62.00

46.92

4 October 1994

62.39

46.94

11 October 1994

62.04

46.93

18 October 1994

62.29

47.50

25 October 1994

62.65

48.66

1 November 1994

63.94

50.23

8 November 1994

64.19

51.16

15 November 1994

64.41

51.41

22 November 1994

65.41

52.69

29 November 1994

65.51

51.93

6 December 1994

65.32

52.21

13 December 1994

66.00

51.87

20 December 1994

65.04

52.41

27 December 1994

66.01

52.87

3 January 1995

66.24

53.52

10 January 1995

66.67

54.26

17 January 1995

65.84

54.56

24 January 1995

67.47

56.07

31 January 1995

66.33

55.20

7 February 1995

65.45

52.60

14 February 1995

64.43

50.79

21 February 1995

64.61

51.53

28 February 1995

64.27

49.97

7 March 1995

64.30

50.32

14 March 1995

65.13

50.86

21 March 1995

65.16

50.22

28 March 1995

65.59

51.28

4 April 1995

65.67

51.72

11 April 1995

66.15

51.40

18 April 1995

66.14

51.30

25 April 1995

66.35

50.60

2 May 1995

65.95

50.95

9 May 1995

65.93

50.92

16 May 1995

64.95

50.79

23 May 1995

65.45

51.56

30 May 1995

65.55

51.84

6 June 1995

64.86

51.88

13 June 1995

64.65

52.41

20 June 1995

64.57

52.56

27 June 1995

64.79

53.14

11 July 1995

64.42

53.51

18 July 1995

64.52

53.92

25 July 1995

62.90

52.80

1 August 1995

63.03

53.17

8 August 1995

63.64

54.63

15 August 1995

63.70

54.99

22 August 1995

64.78

55.35

29 August 1995

64.03

55.00

5 September 1995

63.24

52.63

12 September 1995

63.05

53.09

19 September 1995

62.87

52.38

26 September 1995

62.85

53.28

3 October 1995

62.48

52.51

10 October 1995

61.44

51.78

17 October 1995

61.24

51.22

24 October 1995

61.70

51.28

31 October 1995

61.27

52.10

7 November 1995

62.21

52.86

14 November 1995

62.43

52.34

21 November 1995

62.41

51.95

28 November 1995

62.09

51.61

5 December 1995

62.41

51.88

12 December 1995

63.04

52.50

19 December 1995

62.57

52.23

26 December 1995

63.21

52.03

2 January 1996

63.20

51.67

9 January 1996

63.53

50.85

16 January 1996

62.09

50.67

23 January 1996

61.66

51.40

30 January 1996

61.62

51.03

6 February 1996

62.81

51.65

13 February 1996

63.83

51.57

20 February 1996

63.42

51.45

27 February 1996

62.98

51.44

5 March 1996

62.31

51.20

12 March 1996

62.59

51.67

19 March 1996

63.87

51.93

26 March 1996

64.09

52.28

2 April 1996

63.50

51.89

9 April 1996

64.11

51.69

16 April 1996

64.39

51.73

23 April 1996

64.65

52.10

30 April 1996

65.04

52.12

7 May 1996

65.02

52.91

14 May 1996

65.42

53.03

21 May 1996

65.05

52.37

28 May 1996

64.88

51.28

4 June 1996

63.72

50.66

11 June 1996

63.04

49.30

18 June 1996

62.79

47.99

25 June 1996

62.31

47.00

2 July 1996

62.57

47.33

9 July 1996

62.59

47.35

16 July 1996

62.75

46.78

23 July 1996

62.81

47.26

30 July 1996

62.83

47.25

6 August 1996

62.93

46.92

13 August 1996

63.41

47.13

20 August 1996

64.65

47.39

27 August 1996

64.14

47.35

3 September 1996

64.62

48.13

10 September 1996

64.38

47.69

17 September 1996

64.09

46.85

24 September 1996

63.68

46.91

1 October 1996

62.92

46.50

8 October 1996

64.09

46.21

15 October 1996

63.58

46.40

22 October 1996

62.97

46.16

29 October 1996

62.93

46.31

5 November 1996

62.01

45.87

12 November 1996

62.73

46.69

19 November 1996

63.23

46.73

26 November 1996

64.82

47.61

3 December 1996

64.77

47.16

10 December 1996

64.10

46.55

17 December 1996

64.87

46.45

24 December 1996

64.96

46.79

31 December 1996

64.20

46.93

7 January 1997

65.56

48.00

14 January 1997

66.27

48.98

21 January 1997

66.38

49.46

28 January 1997

65.11

49.31

4 February 1997

64.96

49.72

11 February 1997

64.64

49.95

18 February 1997

64.40

50.39

25 February 1997

63.85

50.79

4 March 1997

63.75

51.43

11 March 1997

63.89

50.63

18 March 1997

63.81

50.57

25 March 1997

63.18

50.29

1 April 1997

62.63

50.08

8 April 1997

61.73

48.61

15 April 1997

61.49

48.43

22 April 1997

62.01

48.95

29 April 1997

61.48

49.01

6 May 1997

61.57

49.80

13 May 1997

62.81

50.65

20 May 1997

62.18

50.88

27 May 1997

61.48

50.62

3 June 1997

61.87

49.98

10 June 1997

61.47

50.41

17 June 1997

61.41

50.34

24 June 1997

60.94

50.12

1 July 1997

60.82

49.73

8 July 1997

60.59

49.71

15 July 1997

60.53

49.67

22 July 1997

60.80

49.75

29 July 1997

62.20

51.56

5 August 1997

62.79

51.26

12 August 1997

62.98

51.12

19 August 1997

62.64

50.15

26 August 1997

62.25

50.10

2 September 1997

62.22

49.24

9 September 1997

62.10

49.01

16 September 1997

62.05

48.63

23 September 1997

62.27

49.13

30 September 1997

62.44

49.20

7 October 1997

62.55

48.14

14 October 1997

61.90

48.02

21 October 1997

61.86

47.39

28 October 1997

62.03

46.52

4 November 1997

61.98

47.12

11 November 1997

61.91

47.01

18 November 1997

61.79

47.08

25 November 1997

60.83

47.20

2 December 1997

60.17

46.79

9 December 1997

58.93

45.62

16 December 1997

57.53

44.99

23 December 1997

57.40

44.66

30 December 1997

56.72

44.68

6 January 1998

55.93

44.24

13 January 1998

54.35

43.63

20 January 1998

54.57

43.67

27 January 1998

55.18

44.31

3 February 1998

55.54

44.29

10 February 1998

54.99

43.31

17 February 1998

55.06

43.19

24 February 1998

54.57

42.63

3 March 1998

55.13

43.01

10 March 1998

54.94

43.53

17 March 1998

54.64

43.94

24 March 1998

56.20

43.84

31 March 1998

55.68

43.88

7 April 1998

55.23

43.86

14 April 1998

55.14

43.89

21 April 1998

55.14

44.05

28 April 1998

55.42

44.66

5 May 1998

55.44

44.31

12 May 1998

54.84

43.34

19 May 1998

54.23

42.46

26 May 1998

54.14

42.74

2 June 1998

55.09

42.60

9 June 1998

54.72

42.30

16 June 1998

53.78

41.65

23 June 1998

54.52

41.81

30 June 1998

53.69

41.27

7 July 1998

53.61

40.82

14 July 1998

53.60

40.86

21 July 1998

54.20

41.91

28 July 1998

54.03

42.39

4 August 1998

52.96

40.41

11 August 1998

53.27

40.29

18 August 1998

53.33

40.32

25 August 1998

52.91

40.19

1 September 1998

52.40

40.13

8 September 1998

52.51

40.22

15 September 1998

52.66

39.93

22 September 1998

52.51

39.37

29 September 1998

52.08

39.37

6 October 1998

50.74

37.31

13 October 1998

50.26

37.72

20 October 1998

49.64

37.51

27 October 1998

49.83

36.78

3 November 1998

49.91

36.88

10 November 1998

49.89

36.66

17 November 1998

49.81

36.38

24 November 1998

49.44

36.58

1 December 1998

48.87

36.35

8 December 1998

48.74

35.56

15 December 1998

48.58

35.29

22 December 1998

48.44

35.19

29 December 1998

48.03

34.95

5 January 1999

48.15

34.36

12 January 1999

48.81

36.32

19 January 1999

49.01

36.17

26 January 1999

48.72

36.00

2 February 1999

48.75

36.34

9 February 1999

49.47

37.65

16 February 1999

48.99

37.26

23 February 1999

48.69

37.25

2 March 1999

48.17

36.55

9 March 1999

48.56

36.12

16 March 1999

48.92

36.15

23 March 1999

49.49

36.75

30 March 1999

49.50

36.83

6 April 1999

50.18

36.22

13 April 1999

50.45

36.51

20 April 1999

51.24

37.84

27 April 1999

51.57

37.73

4 May 1999

52.45

38.34

11 May 1999

52.34

38.95

18 May 1999

52.90

38.99

25 May 1999

52.55

38.94

1 June 1999

52.32

37.25

8 June 1999

53.02

37.42

15 June 1999

53.47

38.21

22 June 1999

53.42

38.47

29 June 1999

53.87

38.94

6 July 1999

54.59

39.43

13 July 1999

54.73

40.33

20 July 1999

55.30

40.58

27 July 1999

55.25

39.98

3 August 1999

55.54

39.96

10 August 1999

56.79

41.56

17 August 1999

56.77

41.80

24 August 1999

56.23

41.48

31 August 1999

56.23

41.53

14 September 1999

57.67

42.63

21 September 1999

57.87

42.71

28 September 1999

57.74

42.00

5 October 1999

57.37

42.31

12 October 1999

56.34

42.05

19 October 1999

57.03

42.32

26 October 1999

57.49

42.47

2 November 1999

57.41

43.00

9 November 1999

57.68

43.41

16 November 1999

57.76

42.88

23 November 1999

57.78

43.21

30 November 1999

58.17

43.62

7 December 1999

58.32

44.31

14 December 1999

58.08

44.00

21 December 1999

58.06

44.68

28 December 1999

58.06

45.04

4 January 2000

58.27

45.88

11 January 2000

58.48

45.82

18 January 2000

58.63

45.71

25 January 2000

59.69

45.83

1 February 2000

59.43

45.33

8 February 2000

59.21

44.72

15 February 2000

59.89

44.78

22 February 2000

59.75

44.17

29 February 2000

59.63

43.82

7 March 2000

60.28

44.04

14 March 2000

60.54

43.65

21 March 2000

59.99

44.10

28 March 2000

59.71

43.45

4 April 2000

58.71

43.00

11 April 2000

58.18

42.54

18 April 2000

58.41

41.91

25 April 2000

58.31

42.10

2 May 2000

57.82

41.41

9 May 2000

59.09

42.85

16 May 2000

59.68

43.01

23 May 2000

60.37

43.17

30 May 2000

60.76

42.99

6 June 2000

59.53

41.33

13 June 2000

59.67

41.47

20 June 2000

60.12

42.32

27 June 2000

59.80

42.32

11 July 2000

59.27

42.01

18 July 2000

59.27

41.97

25 July 2000

58.61

42.47

1 August 2000

58.63

42.26

8 August 2000

59.32

41.98

15 August 2000

59.69

42.34

22 August 2000

60.44

42.33

29 August 2000

60.58

42.74

5 September 2000

60.88

43.07

12 September 2000

61.64

43.76

19 September 2000

62.43

43.79

26 September 2000

62.29

43.77

3 October 2000

61.70

42.97

10 October 2000

60.32

41.57

17 October 2000

60.39

41.22

24 October 2000

59.70

40.55

31 October 2000

58.83

40.30

7 November 2000

58.69

39.88

14 November 2000

59.67

39.30

21 November 2000

60.00

38.81

28 November 2000

60.42

39.21

5 December 2000

60.77

39.45

12 December 2000

61.50

40.53

19 December 2000

61.65

40.57

26 December 2000

61.58

40.53

2 January 2001

60.87

40.22

9 January 2001

61.73

40.12

16 January 2001

62.20

41.10

23 January 2001

62.25

41.34

30 January 2001

61.25

41.59

6 February 2001

59.74

40.32

13 February 2001

58.81

39.85

20 February 2001

58.20

39.61

27 February 2001

57.30

39.12

6 March 2001

57.53

39.66

13 March 2001

57.64

39.44

20 March 2001

57.21

38.74

27 March 2001

57.47

38.83

3 April 2001

55.95

37.94

10 April 2001

56.98

38.26

17 April 2001

57.70

38.71

24 April 2001

57.75

38.57

1 May 2001

57.86

38.75

8 May 2001

57.77

38.94

15 May 2001

57.86

38.65

22 May 2001

58.15

38.89

29 May 2001

56.97

38.63

5 June 2001

56.94

38.03

12 June 2001

56.59

37.72

19 June 2001

55.23

37.14

26 June 2001

54.68

37.03

3 July 2001

53.14

36.74

10 July 2001

53.55

36.67

17 July 2001

53.02

36.60

24 July 2001

52.88

36.11

31 July 2001

53.03

35.93

7 August 2001

52.67

35.39

14 August 2001

52.51

35.16

21 August 2001

53.07

35.80

28 August 2001

52.34

35.79

4 September 2001

51.76

35.44

11 September 2001

51.05

34.52

18 September 2001

51.03

34.67

25 September 2001

48.78

34.04

2 October 2001

48.68

33.83

9 October 2001

47.76

33.33

16 October 2001

47.60

33.49

23 October 2001

47.59

32.84

30 October 2001

47.91

33.05

6 November 2001

46.77

32.11

13 November 2001

47.30

33.17

20 November 2001

46.98

34.36

27 November 2001

46.79

34.31

4 December 2001

47.45

34.44

11 December 2001

46.98

33.29

18 December 2001

46.88

32.82

8 January 2002

47.63

34.63

15 January 2002

47.54

35.41

22 January 2002

47.18

34.87

29 January 2002

47.34

34.71

5 February 2002

48.03

35.53

12 February 2002

48.25

35.18

19 February 2002

48.23

35.34

26 February 2002

48.75

34.65

5 March 2002

50.44

36.17

12 March 2002

52.19

36.82

19 March 2002

52.97

36.97

26 March 2002

52.99

36.64

2 April 2002

53.14

36.94

9 April 2002

53.23

37.17

16 April 2002

52.22

36.55

23 April 2002

53.38

38.08

30 April 2002

53.06

38.13

7 May 2002

52.62

37.95

14 May 2002

53.37

38.14

21 May 2002

52.96

37.66

28 May 2002

53.35

37.82

4 June 2002

53.96

38.25

11 June 2002

55.02

38.74

18 June 2002

56.27

38.74

25 June 2002

57.18

38.54

2 July 2002

57.10

39.36

9 July 2002

55.60

39.07

16 July 2002

55.82

39.06

23 July 2002

55.32

38.24

30 July 2002

54.60

37.15

6 August 2002

53.72

36.34

13 August 2002

53.57

36.28

20 August 2002

54.60

36.39

27 August 2002

54.82

36.77

3 September 2002

54.60

36.85

10 September 2002

54.77

36.95

17 September 2002

55.20

37.05

24 September 2002

55.51

36.61

1 October 2002

55.44

36.55

8 October 2002

54.84

36.70

15 October 2002

55.03

37.07

22 October 2002

55.52

37.33

29 October 2002

55.87

38.09

5 November 2002

55.73

37.96

12 November 2002

55.29

37.76

19 November 2002

55.42

37.59

26 November 2002

56.56

38.16

3 December 2002

56.82

38.54

10 December 2002

56.49

38.00

17 December 2002

57.74

37.63

24 December 2002

58.46

37.80

31 December 2002

58.21

37.49

7 January 2003

58.74

38.08

14 January 2003

59.74

38.99

21 January 2003

60.79

39.64

28 January 2003

61.34

40.08

4 February 2003

61.88

40.55

11 February 2003

62.58

40.55

18 February 2003

62.80

40.71

25 February 2003

65.99

41.43

4 March 2003

64.56

41.41

11 March 2003

63.60

41.11

18 March 2003

62.45

40.64

25 March 2003

61.53

41.03

1 April 2003

61.04

39.98

8 April 2003

60.41

39.78

15 April 2003

60.41

39.81

22 April 2003

60.59

40.15

29 April 2003

59.07

39.74

6 May 2003

58.40

39.68

13 May 2003

58.45

39.84

20 May 2003

59.65

40.64

27 May 2003

59.57

40.60

3 June 2003

60.17

41.24

10 June 2003

60.87

41.09

17 June 2003

60.48

40.29

24 June 2003

61.06

40.47

1 July 2003

60.88

40.29

8 July 2003

61.57

41.00

15 July 2003

62.70

42.40

22 July 2003

62.78

41.91

29 July 2003

62.80

42.83

5 August 2003

63.67

43.67

12 August 2003

63.84

42.94

19 August 2003

63.91

42.50

26 August 2003

65.72

43.33

2 September 2003

66.04

43.11

9 September 2003

66.70

44.07

16 September 2003

66.56

43.78

23 September 2003

67.02

44.47

30 September 2003

67.79

44.26

7 October 2003

68.96

45.47

14 October 2003

70.72

46.76

21 October 2003

71.41

47.54

28 October 2003

72.06

47.18

4 November 2003

71.74

48.08

11 November 2003

72.69

49.17

18 November 2003

73.20

49.66

25 November 2003

71.60

49.18

2 December 2003

72.42

50.25

9 December 2003

74.77

52.78

16 December 2003

74.75

53.32

23 December 2003

73.95

54.42

30 December 2003

74.29

55.96

6 January 2004

75.25

56.54

13 January 2004

77.98

58.04

20 January 2004

77.72

57.27

27 January 2004

78.50

57.74

3 February 2004

78.76

59.07

10 February 2004

80.07

63.35

17 February 2004

81.70

64.70

24 February 2004

81.76

65.21

2 March 2004

83.33

67.59

9 March 2004

82.94

65.87

16 March 2004

83.08

66.06

23 March 2004

84.27

68.05

30 March 2004

83.52

67.12

6 April 2004

83.94

65.37

13 April 2004

84.13

64.06

20 April 2004

83.76

64.10

27 April 2004

82.04

62.19

4 May 2004

81.38

61.36

11 May 2004

79.64

57.35

18 May 2004

80.18

58.23

25 May 2004

80.61

59.82

1 June 2004

80.98

61.79

8 June 2004

80.30

61.24

15 June 2004

78.90

58.76

22 June 2004

79.04

60.97

29 June 2004

78.66

60.75

6 July 2004

79.55

62.11

13 July 2004

81.56

66.64

20 July 2004

81.47

66.03

27 July 2004

83.18

64.90

3 August 2004

83.93

65.94

10 August 2004

83.47

64.92

17 August 2004

85.23

67.43

24 August 2004

84.87

65.53

31 August 2004

83.86

64.72

7 September 2004

82.60

62.04

14 September 2004

83.75

63.38

21 September 2004

83.77

64.25

28 September 2004

83.80

66.74

5 October 2004

84.66

68.83

12 October 2004

85.96

72.46

19 October 2004

82.98

67.67

26 October 2004

83.59

66.89

2 November 2004

83.95

68.56

9 November 2004

85.17

70.80

16 November 2004

84.03

70.42

23 November 2004

83.73

70.76

30 November 2004

85.28

71.55

7 December 2004

83.32

68.40

14 December 2004

83.14

67.24

21 December 2004

83.63

69.49

28 December 2004

82.89

70.18

4 January 2005

82.67

70.33

11 January 2005

82.14

66.27

18 January 2005

82.58

66.80

25 January 2005

83.07

67.97

1 February 2005

82.37

68.37

8 February 2005

83.04

67.69

15 February 2005

83.61

68.30

22 February 2005

84.67

70.07

1 March 2005

86.72

70.41

8 March 2005

86.31

70.67

15 March 2005

87.13

70.85

22 March 2005

87.75

70.65

29 March 2005

86.75

69.61

5 April 2005

88.32

70.39

12 April 2005

87.79

72.54

19 April 2005

85.88

69.55

26 April 2005

86.36

70.34

3 May 2005

84.17

68.67

10 May 2005

82.68

67.77

17 May 2005

81.66

66.13

24 May 2005

80.81

66.39

31 May 2005

81.75

67.28

7 June 2005

81.32

63.65

14 June 2005

81.39

62.96

21 June 2005

82.50

63.86

28 June 2005

82.60

62.45

5 July 2005

81.49

60.96

12 July 2005

83.20

62.73

19 July 2005

83.22

62.80

26 July 2005

82.04

62.82

2 August 2005

83.67

63.95

9 August 2005

85.76

67.37

16 August 2005

86.97

69.08

23 August 2005

88.32

69.48

30 August 2005

88.40

69.54

6 September 2005

92.06

70.59

13 September 2005

93.50

71.12

20 September 2005

93.64

69.78

27 September 2005

96.19

72.38

4 October 2005

96.49

70.96

11 October 2005

96.03

71.71

18 October 2005

95.80

71.86

25 October 2005

93.49

70.41

1 November 2005

91.54

71.06

8 November 2005

90.82

73.83

15 November 2005

91.15

74.58

22 November 2005

91.96

75.57

29 November 2005

92.30

76.13

6 December 2005

94.78

79.52

13 December 2005

95.32

80.52

20 December 2005

94.53

80.13

27 December 2005

94.08

79.43

3 January 2006

93.44

79.92

10 January 2006

92.88

79.75

17 January 2006

94.78

82.22

24 January 2006

96.08

84.16

31 January 2006

96.97

87.00

7 February 2006

98.85

90.83

14 February 2006

95.79

87.33

21 February 2006

94.16

85.54

28 February 2006

93.86

86.26

7 March 2006

94.57

88.42

14 March 2006

93.95

86.60

21 March 2006

94.37

89.36

28 March 2006

95.70

91.70

4 April 2006

96.32

93.37

11 April 2006

97.13

96.53

98.63

98.40

18 April 2006
25 April 2006

101.28 102.32

2 May 2006

101.60 103.44

9 May 2006

102.40 105.91

16 May 2006

103.12 109.16

23 May 2006

100.98 103.30

30 May 2006

103.10 106.57

6 June 2006

102.75 104.14

13 June 2006

101.54

98.85

20 June 2006

100.62

95.50

27 June 2006

100.66

96.23

11 July 2006

101.98 101.71

18 July 2006

103.71 103.48

25 July 2006

100.51

1 August 2006

104.20 102.58

8 August 2006

102.22

98.01

15 August 2006

101.73

96.79

22 August 2006

101.59

98.67

29 August 2006

101.24

99.72

5 September 2006

100.14 100.64

12 September 2006

100.17 102.62

19 September 2006

99.11 100.97

26 September 2006

99.01 104.18

3 October 2006

98.36 105.95

10 October 2006

99.86 107.16

17 October 2006

100.46 111.41

24 October 2006

101.13 111.15

31 October 2006

101.82 111.41

7 November 2006

102.06 113.05

14 November 2006

101.05 108.22

21 November 2006

101.25 108.11

28 November 2006

103.16 112.25

5 December 2006

105.07 115.38

12 December 2006

104.66 116.10

19 December 2006

104.33 114.96

2 January 2007

105.28 115.66

9 January 2007

102.67 109.70

16 January 2007

103.53 111.81

23 January 2007

104.81 113.03

30 January 2007

105.54 114.07

6 February 2007

105.91 113.44

13 February 2007

106.23 114.11

97.25

20 February 2007

108.18 118.53

27 February 2007

110.01 124.84

6 March 2007

108.47 122.15

13 March 2007

108.79 125.86

20 March 2007

109.64 129.81

27 March 2007

110.37 129.12

3 April 2007

112.31 128.86

10 April 2007

112.91 132.55

17 April 2007

114.06 132.79

24 April 2007

114.26 132.97

1 May 2007

115.00 133.04

8 May 2007

114.69 134.02

15 May 2007

113.77 131.54

22 May 2007

114.65 129.91

29 May 2007

115.03 128.53

5 June 2007

115.93 131.58

12 June 2007

114.91 129.03

19 June 2007

115.87 130.40

26 June 2007

115.76 128.56

3 July 2007

115.46 129.80

10 July 2007

117.11 132.01

17 July 2007

116.77 130.45

24 July 2007

118.18 136.41

31 July 2007

116.60 130.16

7 August 2007

115.50 131.28

14 August 2007

114.61 128.51

21 August 2007

112.00 122.77

28 August 2007

111.91 125.80

4 September 2007

113.33 127.79

11 September 2007

112.10 122.60

18 September 2007

115.28 127.57

25 September 2007

117.65 132.69

2 October 2007

116.66 132.82

9 October 2007

116.23 132.20

16 October 2007

119.17 137.97

23 October 2007

118.12 132.93

30 October 2007

119.15 133.78

6 November 2007

118.73 131.80

13 November 2007

118.21 129.03

20 November 2007

116.90 124.44

27 November 2007

116.82 122.91

4 December 2007

115.30 124.13

11 December 2007

113.69 121.47

18 December 2007

112.31 117.41

8 January 2008

117.54 127.92

15 January 2008

119.26 130.93

22 January 2008

117.08 126.72

29 January 2008

116.52 127.68

5 February 2008

117.76 133.64

12 February 2008

119.76 136.54

19 February 2008

121.22 136.75

26 February 2008

124.42 141.77

4 March 2008

128.01 150.42

11 March 2008

126.69 146.90

18 March 2008

126.15 145.17

25 March 2008

123.64 139.80

1 April 2008

125.71 145.40

8 April 2008

129.75 154.83

15 April 2008

131.06 154.95

22 April 2008

132.10 154.91

29 April 2008

133.27 156.65

6 May 2008

133.05 152.84

13 May 2008

133.84 151.44

20 May 2008

134.84 151.48

27 May 2008

133.19 146.00

3 June 2008

130.99 139.32

10 June 2008

132.73 140.83

17 June 2008

132.37 138.41

Note. The Journal of Commerce (JOC) industrial price index is based almost entirely on industrial commodities, with a small weight given to energy commodities. Copyright for Journal of
Commerce data is held by CIBCR, 1994.

Figure: Commodity Research Bureau
Ratio scale, 1967 = 100

Period

Spot industrials Futures

8 January 1991

301.10

219.65

15 January 1991

298.80

221.60

22 January 1991

298.00

217.13

29 January 1991

295.00

215.21

5 February 1991

294.40

213.90

12 February 1991

293.80

213.61

19 February 1991

292.40

213.08

26 February 1991

294.60

212.56

5 March 1991

295.90

220.82

12 March 1991

292.70

219.95

19 March 1991

290.20

218.72

26 March 1991

291.30

217.28

2 April 1991

291.30

222.20

9 April 1991

294.70

220.85

16 April 1991

295.00

220.57

23 April 1991

295.30

217.95

30 April 1991

293.90

216.18

7 May 1991

291.40

215.82

14 May 1991

290.30

214.32

21 May 1991

291.80

215.91

28 May 1991

288.10

216.98

4 June 1991

286.40

217.19

11 June 1991

286.60

216.17

18 June 1991

287.40

213.35

25 June 1991

283.30

210.79

2 July 1991

281.70

207.32

9 July 1991

280.10

206.18

16 July 1991

278.80

209.01

23 July 1991

279.50

211.93

30 July 1991

279.80

212.89

6 August 1991

280.00

212.77

13 August 1991

278.30

208.63

20 August 1991

276.20

204.68

27 August 1991

273.50

210.59

3 September 1991

273.00

211.87

10 September 1991

271.90

213.10

17 September 1991

271.50

215.15

24 September 1991

271.56

217.57

1 October 1991

272.31

216.41

8 October 1991

272.19

216.69

15 October 1991

271.84

216.30

22 October 1991

271.63

219.80

29 October 1991

270.76

218.49

5 November 1991

270.32

217.80

12 November 1991

269.50

213.94

19 November 1991

270.85

214.44

26 November 1991

272.66

213.68

3 December 1991

273.46

212.90

10 December 1991

268.91

210.81

17 December 1991

268.35

210.33

24 December 1991

268.56

209.93

31 December 1991

267.25

208.08

7 January 1992

267.05

207.23

14 January 1992

266.34

208.92

21 January 1992

265.60

210.28

28 January 1992

263.20

211.32

4 February 1992

262.55

212.33

11 February 1992

262.30

211.78

18 February 1992

262.38

210.11

25 February 1992

263.41

208.17

3 March 1992

264.95

210.88

10 March 1992

264.94

212.42

17 March 1992

267.35

211.56

24 March 1992

271.51

211.46

31 March 1992

273.34

209.77

7 April 1992

277.32

208.22

14 April 1992

277.59

206.08

21 April 1992

276.98

206.86

28 April 1992

280.69

205.37

5 May 1992

281.56

206.91

12 May 1992

281.36

208.78

19 May 1992

281.35

207.93

26 May 1992

281.62

207.59

2 June 1992

283.48

211.45

9 June 1992

283.83

212.54

16 June 1992

283.75

209.04

23 June 1992

284.12

209.11

30 June 1992

286.62

209.26

7 July 1992

285.78

205.28

14 July 1992

285.96

205.04

21 July 1992

284.77

203.55

28 July 1992

284.77

204.46

4 August 1992

284.59

203.89

11 August 1992

283.44

199.89

18 August 1992

283.61

201.15

25 August 1992

282.19

201.22

1 September 1992

280.83

200.87

8 September 1992

282.97

203.19

15 September 1992

290.01

202.96

22 September 1992

284.86

201.60

29 September 1992

280.29

199.52

6 October 1992

279.23

200.67

13 October 1992

277.67

200.93

20 October 1992

277.09

202.57

27 October 1992

276.01

200.12

3 November 1992

274.72

201.50

10 November 1992

265.66

199.51

17 November 1992

265.05

202.34

24 November 1992

265.30

202.99

1 December 1992

266.82

202.93

8 December 1992

267.29

201.81

15 December 1992

267.31

202.35

22 December 1992

266.15

204.13

29 December 1992

265.42

201.96

5 January 1993

266.58

201.47

12 January 1993

269.06

202.71

19 January 1993

269.15

202.06

26 January 1993

268.47

199.63

2 February 1993

268.79

199.59

9 February 1993

269.62

199.67

16 February 1993

270.88

202.10

23 February 1993

269.47

203.84

2 March 1993

267.90

204.65

9 March 1993

268.32

207.68

16 March 1993

266.91

209.39

23 March 1993

266.29

211.93

30 March 1993

265.87

211.28

6 April 1993

263.72

211.47

13 April 1993

262.04

211.84

20 April 1993

260.97

208.46

27 April 1993

261.03

210.85

4 May 1993

258.95

207.96

11 May 1993

258.40

208.05

18 May 1993

256.74

210.64

25 May 1993

258.60

209.90

1 June 1993

257.07

207.00

8 June 1993

257.77

205.96

15 June 1993

256.22

203.34

22 June 1993

258.97

205.62

29 June 1993

255.09

205.14

6 July 1993

255.99

217.30

13 July 1993

256.96

214.86

20 July 1993

257.06

217.33

27 July 1993

257.06

218.76

3 August 1993

257.47

223.27

10 August 1993

255.89

215.10

17 August 1993

254.52

213.86

24 August 1993

255.48

216.43

31 August 1993

254.84

217.19

7 September 1993

254.73

213.27

14 September 1993

253.22

212.35

21 September 1993

251.94

215.98

28 September 1993

251.65

215.37

5 October 1993

253.06

217.15

12 October 1993

255.98

220.27

19 October 1993

256.47

218.17

26 October 1993

255.08

217.70

2 November 1993

257.10

218.48

9 November 1993

257.28

217.75

16 November 1993

258.43

222.10

23 November 1993

259.27

222.18

30 November 1993

259.24

217.99

7 December 1993

262.58

222.34

14 December 1993

264.02

224.18

21 December 1993

264.96

224.05

28 December 1993

265.40

225.38

4 January 1994

265.81

226.74

11 January 1994

266.80

226.30

18 January 1994

270.50

227.42

25 January 1994

269.84

225.78

1 February 1994

272.19

226.99

8 February 1994

274.13

227.23

15 February 1994

274.28

227.22

22 February 1994

277.88

227.84

1 March 1994

277.14

227.35

8 March 1994

276.75

226.19

15 March 1994

278.85

229.31

22 March 1994

280.77

229.41

29 March 1994

281.91

226.87

5 April 1994

277.79

224.38

12 April 1994

279.71

222.63

19 April 1994

280.30

220.21

26 April 1994

284.49

221.65

3 May 1994

286.84

224.74

10 May 1994

286.21

224.94

17 May 1994

290.06

229.53

24 May 1994

290.96

234.69

31 May 1994

287.39

235.35

7 June 1994

288.31

228.96

14 June 1994

292.52

235.30

21 June 1994

293.16

234.29

28 June 1994

289.81

230.40

5 July 1994

292.01

226.73

12 July 1994

298.49

231.53

19 July 1994

302.65

234.20

26 July 1994

303.57

232.52

2 August 1994

300.24

233.16

9 August 1994

304.27

231.52

16 August 1994

304.31

229.17

23 August 1994

306.22

228.91

30 August 1994

310.04

231.53

6 September 1994

309.72

233.22

13 September 1994

311.66

232.53

20 September 1994

315.10

230.97

27 September 1994

316.68

231.65

4 October 1994

318.05

230.30

11 October 1994

317.53

227.88

18 October 1994

318.07

229.72

25 October 1994

319.58

232.25

1 November 1994

324.00

233.53

8 November 1994

325.64

233.97

15 November 1994

330.56

233.74

22 November 1994

333.44

231.15

29 November 1994

333.22

230.59

6 December 1994

336.88

227.99

13 December 1994

339.06

229.23

20 December 1994

339.88

232.49

27 December 1994

342.72

236.19

3 January 1995

344.68

234.76

10 January 1995

346.54

233.87

17 January 1995

346.52

235.58

24 January 1995

351.41

235.61

31 January 1995

349.52

232.78

7 February 1995

340.35

231.51

14 February 1995

336.07

234.62

21 February 1995

340.73

235.43

28 February 1995

340.92

234.25

7 March 1995

343.90

234.68

14 March 1995

344.59

235.67

21 March 1995

345.31

234.40

28 March 1995

346.40

232.92

4 April 1995

345.22

235.37

11 April 1995

348.78

237.28

18 April 1995

350.19

236.82

25 April 1995

353.95

236.63

2 May 1995

352.11

235.64

9 May 1995

351.52

231.01

16 May 1995

351.52

231.67

23 May 1995

352.03

236.48

30 May 1995

354.76

232.75

6 June 1995

353.02

234.06

13 June 1995

350.93

232.68

20 June 1995

353.87

236.66

27 June 1995

355.27

234.56

4 July 1995

354.39

233.38

11 July 1995

351.95

230.50

18 July 1995

344.72

234.00

25 July 1995

338.87

233.90

1 August 1995

336.49

233.92

8 August 1995

337.74

232.55

15 August 1995

338.49

234.28

22 August 1995

341.67

239.37

29 August 1995

342.00

239.33

5 September 1995

337.13

241.36

12 September 1995

333.23

240.33

19 September 1995

332.19

243.40

26 September 1995

335.49

241.16

3 October 1995

332.64

240.49

10 October 1995

332.54

239.74

17 October 1995

331.61

240.46

24 October 1995

332.11

241.66

31 October 1995

333.96

242.22

7 November 1995

339.05

244.34

14 November 1995

341.10

242.02

21 November 1995

339.95

241.54

28 November 1995

339.44

241.12

5 December 1995

336.97

244.08

12 December 1995

334.80

243.97

19 December 1995

331.32

245.44

26 December 1995

330.66

244.00

2 January 1996

331.53

244.45

9 January 1996

323.43

246.28

16 January 1996

329.57

238.98

23 January 1996

329.40

241.98

30 January 1996

328.50

245.45

6 February 1996

328.11

246.61

13 February 1996

325.50

249.68

20 February 1996

327.62

249.64

27 February 1996

328.85

249.25

5 March 1996

329.75

243.15

12 March 1996

330.12

246.89

19 March 1996

330.03

249.90

26 March 1996

331.56

252.66

2 April 1996

330.75

252.38

9 April 1996

331.75

255.82

16 April 1996

332.11

255.84

23 April 1996

335.13

261.07

30 April 1996

338.08

256.09

7 May 1996

340.06

259.34

14 May 1996

339.81

260.22

21 May 1996

342.67

257.59

28 May 1996

344.04

255.63

4 June 1996

343.69

250.05

11 June 1996

338.56

250.19

18 June 1996

336.94

251.40

25 June 1996

330.64

247.71

2 July 1996

332.13

248.66

9 July 1996

332.68

250.12

16 July 1996

333.11

247.91

23 July 1996

333.85

241.32

30 July 1996

339.51

240.51

6 August 1996

340.56

244.16

13 August 1996

343.52

249.91

20 August 1996

343.14

250.65

27 August 1996

346.05

249.76

3 September 1996

348.08

248.98

10 September 1996

346.47

248.14

17 September 1996

342.77

244.40

24 September 1996

339.79

245.31

1 October 1996

338.60

244.20

8 October 1996

339.73

249.14

15 October 1996

336.66

246.24

22 October 1996

330.55

244.96

29 October 1996

328.28

241.11

5 November 1996

328.24

236.13

12 November 1996

328.42

240.49

19 November 1996

330.95

245.51

26 November 1996

335.78

244.85

3 December 1996

332.78

241.63

10 December 1996

331.81

240.87

17 December 1996

330.98

244.54

24 December 1996

333.49

243.81

31 December 1996

334.92

238.20

7 January 1997

335.77

242.38

14 January 1997

340.11

242.31

21 January 1997

340.34

240.84

28 January 1997

340.80

242.27

4 February 1997

340.23

238.66

11 February 1997

343.47

237.58

18 February 1997

345.19

239.31

25 February 1997

345.06

241.62

4 March 1997

344.31

245.82

11 March 1997

341.60

247.14

18 March 1997

339.92

244.34

25 March 1997

339.19

245.49

1 April 1997

337.92

245.83

8 April 1997

333.61

239.98

15 April 1997

332.90

243.31

22 April 1997

332.90

246.54

29 April 1997

333.37

246.68

6 May 1997

332.97

246.04

13 May 1997

338.41

251.30

20 May 1997

339.76

251.00

27 May 1997

337.98

250.72

3 June 1997

338.12

248.44

10 June 1997

338.01

244.63

17 June 1997

338.52

244.89

24 June 1997

335.36

241.44

1 July 1997

335.36

238.70

8 July 1997

332.51

232.96

15 July 1997

332.75

235.15

22 July 1997

332.72

235.09

29 July 1997

339.66

241.81

5 August 1997

341.08

243.60

12 August 1997

341.81

243.09

19 August 1997

338.59

239.92

26 August 1997

338.93

237.69

2 September 1997

339.50

243.66

9 September 1997

337.14

242.31

16 September 1997

336.08

240.85

23 September 1997

339.08

241.46

30 September 1997

336.70

243.06

7 October 1997

334.16

245.69

14 October 1997

334.79

244.53

21 October 1997

333.13

243.77

28 October 1997

331.82

239.00

4 November 1997

331.86

241.61

11 November 1997

328.74

242.65

18 November 1997

327.42

241.03

25 November 1997

322.78

235.69

2 December 1997

318.27

236.89

9 December 1997

310.29

237.11

16 December 1997

307.57

233.01

23 December 1997

308.31

231.95

30 December 1997

306.88

230.50

6 January 1998

304.05

226.42

13 January 1998

295.58

225.90

20 January 1998

298.81

229.19

27 January 1998

300.31

233.20

3 February 1998

296.79

234.09

10 February 1998

295.52

233.26

17 February 1998

295.06

228.83

24 February 1998

299.18

224.14

3 March 1998

302.85

227.46

10 March 1998

302.51

225.51

17 March 1998

305.07

223.72

24 March 1998

304.07

229.73

31 March 1998

300.51

228.89

7 April 1998

298.39

225.36

14 April 1998

298.52

225.24

21 April 1998

300.33

227.23

28 April 1998

306.21

224.80

5 May 1998

306.08

226.46

12 May 1998

304.79

223.38

19 May 1998

305.35

218.46

26 May 1998

304.51

215.92

2 June 1998

305.69

215.13

9 June 1998

302.29

211.51

16 June 1998

297.83

209.02

23 June 1998

296.84

216.47

30 June 1998

296.20

214.63

7 July 1998

294.53

213.78

14 July 1998

294.45

210.10

21 July 1998

296.90

207.68

28 July 1998

295.77

206.63

4 August 1998

294.44

205.57

11 August 1998

291.23

202.90

18 August 1998

290.85

202.62

25 August 1998

287.69

199.77

1 September 1998

283.33

198.67

8 September 1998

285.19

202.52

15 September 1998

280.11

203.74

22 September 1998

277.85

202.78

29 September 1998

281.72

203.71

6 October 1998

278.58

202.93

13 October 1998

279.05

205.14

20 October 1998

274.44

202.95

27 October 1998

272.73

202.94

3 November 1998

274.44

204.95

10 November 1998

269.89

204.63

17 November 1998

267.82

200.90

24 November 1998

267.57

196.41

1 December 1998

267.75

202.94

8 December 1998

267.32

192.38

15 December 1998

266.42

191.67

22 December 1998

265.13

189.11

29 December 1998

263.49

190.94

5 January 1999

263.32

194.49

12 January 1999

262.43

196.62

19 January 1999

263.34

189.86

26 January 1999

262.72

187.60

2 February 1999

262.33

190.68

9 February 1999

263.41

188.95

16 February 1999

260.87

184.33

23 February 1999

256.01

186.21

2 March 1999

253.28

184.46

9 March 1999

253.36

188.15

16 March 1999

252.74

186.84

23 March 1999

256.48

189.87

30 March 1999

258.39

192.82

6 April 1999

256.06

190.79

13 April 1999

255.47

189.09

20 April 1999

258.29

190.99

27 April 1999

257.94

188.59

4 May 1999

257.45

192.66

11 May 1999

257.37

191.76

18 May 1999

261.17

190.47

25 May 1999

255.92

186.24

1 June 1999

255.30

188.01

8 June 1999

256.41

192.45

15 June 1999

258.41

191.41

22 June 1999

256.58

191.55

29 June 1999

258.12

189.37

6 July 1999

260.04

184.92

13 July 1999

263.11

185.70

20 July 1999

263.11

185.70

27 July 1999

261.63

189.16

3 August 1999

260.09

194.11

10 August 1999

263.19

198.49

17 August 1999

266.20

197.23

24 August 1999

264.48

196.76

31 August 1999

265.38

199.35

7 September 1999

266.72

202.48

14 September 1999

270.97

202.28

21 September 1999

272.35

200.13

28 September 1999

273.96

207.97

5 October 1999

264.02

203.17

12 October 1999

264.25

205.20

19 October 1999

266.83

205.09

26 October 1999

268.36

202.68

2 November 1999

268.91

202.70

9 November 1999

269.99

204.41

16 November 1999

268.45

206.32

23 November 1999

271.92

203.05

30 November 1999

272.77

204.07

7 December 1999

268.71

204.75

14 December 1999

266.75

202.57

21 December 1999

264.77

203.88

28 December 1999

266.04

204.10

4 January 2000

267.31

202.46

11 January 2000

269.03

204.04

18 January 2000

266.05

209.25

25 January 2000

267.59

212.02

1 February 2000

259.12

209.65

8 February 2000

260.16

210.38

15 February 2000

261.73

212.61

22 February 2000

261.74

212.02

29 February 2000

258.48

208.78

7 March 2000

260.42

215.66

14 March 2000

260.74

216.26

21 March 2000

262.79

213.79

28 March 2000

259.56

211.90

4 April 2000

257.43

211.36

11 April 2000

259.40

208.29

18 April 2000

258.30

212.75

25 April 2000

256.60

211.95

2 May 2000

263.49

216.85

9 May 2000

264.04

215.72

16 May 2000

264.73

221.15

23 May 2000

269.39

224.08

30 May 2000

267.31

223.39

6 June 2000

264.91

225.00

13 June 2000

263.34

224.88

20 June 2000

260.22

224.32

27 June 2000

258.04

226.02

4 July 2000

256.95

222.13

11 July 2000

253.54

220.11

18 July 2000

255.33

225.34

25 July 2000

255.87

218.20

1 August 2000

254.39

218.67

8 August 2000

255.08

218.90

15 August 2000

254.69

218.69

22 August 2000

256.92

220.08

29 August 2000

257.60

224.63

5 September 2000

258.03

229.75

12 September 2000

258.61

230.74

19 September 2000

257.51

228.26

26 September 2000

260.56

226.33

3 October 2000

260.74

226.94

10 October 2000

259.40

230.40

17 October 2000

258.71

229.92

24 October 2000

254.93

225.35

31 October 2000

253.13

219.28

7 November 2000

256.55

225.51

14 November 2000

252.28

225.17

21 November 2000

251.11

228.15

28 November 2000

251.55

229.04

5 December 2000

254.41

229.57

12 December 2000

255.06

229.91

19 December 2000

257.49

228.27

26 December 2000

256.70

228.85

2 January 2001

253.76

224.99

9 January 2001

255.90

229.00

16 January 2001

256.04

229.86

23 January 2001

254.43

229.33

30 January 2001

251.85

225.50

6 February 2001

249.00

225.93

13 February 2001

249.16

224.34

20 February 2001

248.52

222.25

27 February 2001

245.32

220.23

6 March 2001

248.62

223.97

13 March 2001

248.03

220.62

20 March 2001

245.26

212.83

27 March 2001

244.60

217.57

3 April 2001

242.28

210.63

10 April 2001

240.99

213.57

17 April 2001

245.71

214.93

24 April 2001

245.72

213.16

1 May 2001

244.35

216.12

8 May 2001

243.59

214.60

15 May 2001

245.29

216.00

22 May 2001

244.78

216.19

29 May 2001

245.03

210.52

5 June 2001

247.22

210.21

12 June 2001

246.66

211.98

19 June 2001

244.55

208.47

26 June 2001

244.70

205.77

3 July 2001

245.01

204.64

10 July 2001

245.70

206.55

17 July 2001

242.95

206.13

24 July 2001

243.63

202.76

31 July 2001

243.08

202.70

7 August 2001

238.28

200.16

14 August 2001

238.25

201.99

21 August 2001

236.16

199.78

28 August 2001

237.15

198.79

4 September 2001

235.59

198.71

11 September 2001

231.63

197.62

18 September 2001

228.76

197.82

25 September 2001

224.75

189.10

2 October 2001

222.84

188.63

9 October 2001

220.02

186.71

16 October 2001

221.52

185.24

23 October 2001

221.03

183.60

30 October 2001

214.40

185.68

6 November 2001

214.17

184.94

13 November 2001

218.66

189.94

20 November 2001

220.25

189.52

27 November 2001

223.16

190.23

4 December 2001

223.00

190.48

11 December 2001

224.67

188.91

18 December 2001

221.29

190.33

25 December 2001

219.27

191.59

1 January 2002

217.33

190.61

8 January 2002

220.64

195.03

15 January 2002

219.19

193.00

22 January 2002

218.86

189.09

29 January 2002

219.82

187.31

5 February 2002

220.42

189.76

12 February 2002

222.62

191.72

19 February 2002

220.07

190.15

26 February 2002

225.43

191.25

5 March 2002

227.64

196.80

12 March 2002

230.55

203.29

19 March 2002

232.46

203.53

26 March 2002

232.44

203.52

2 April 2002

232.48

208.23

9 April 2002

228.59

199.20

16 April 2002

231.11

198.05

23 April 2002

230.48

201.00

30 April 2002

227.92

201.16

7 May 2002

228.46

198.67

14 May 2002

231.76

204.81

21 May 2002

232.08

202.03

28 May 2002

236.14

201.49

4 June 2002

238.51

204.98

11 June 2002

242.28

200.13

18 June 2002

244.48

202.04

25 June 2002

245.72

207.19

2 July 2002

246.35

211.18

9 July 2002

246.98

211.09

16 July 2002

245.27

213.07

23 July 2002

245.56

210.99

30 July 2002

242.58

209.85

6 August 2002

240.20

209.69

13 August 2002

240.43

215.45

20 August 2002

240.45

213.44

27 August 2002

240.21

216.88

3 September 2002

242.09

217.95

10 September 2002

241.17

227.81

17 September 2002

240.90

227.53

24 September 2002

240.50

227.28

1 October 2002

241.08

226.87

8 October 2002

237.87

225.86

15 October 2002

240.95

231.38

22 October 2002

240.89

227.77

29 October 2002

242.34

227.36

5 November 2002

243.67

228.05

12 November 2002

242.89

225.41

19 November 2002

241.96

229.51

26 November 2002

244.59

230.04

3 December 2002

245.04

231.25

10 December 2002

248.88

232.69

17 December 2002

248.91

237.13

24 December 2002

249.36

238.25

31 December 2002

248.56

234.52

7 January 2003

250.29

238.98

14 January 2003

256.33

238.89

21 January 2003

256.16

242.11

28 January 2003

255.22

244.67

4 February 2003

256.93

248.16

11 February 2003

258.05

249.34

18 February 2003

257.53

246.99

25 February 2003

261.37

247.35

4 March 2003

262.39

245.20

11 March 2003

261.16

243.91

18 March 2003

261.43

235.55

25 March 2003

260.69

228.91

1 April 2003

258.61

230.05

8 April 2003

258.45

230.36

15 April 2003

260.42

231.73

22 April 2003

259.92

235.97

29 April 2003

256.61

230.48

6 May 2003

255.68

233.17

13 May 2003

257.16

240.51

20 May 2003

258.58

240.66

27 May 2003

259.57

237.46

3 June 2003

259.81

235.65

10 June 2003

261.30

237.62

17 June 2003

261.60

235.50

24 June 2003

258.54

232.99

1 July 2003

259.26

234.50

8 July 2003

261.42

235.91

15 July 2003

265.08

233.12

22 July 2003

263.85

230.61

29 July 2003

265.96

234.71

5 August 2003

263.26

234.81

12 August 2003

262.39

237.12

19 August 2003

262.78

236.09

26 August 2003

265.50

241.08

2 September 2003

267.43

241.29

9 September 2003

269.91

244.38

16 September 2003

272.61

237.67

23 September 2003

274.30

240.27

30 September 2003

280.62

243.66

7 October 2003

284.05

244.13

14 October 2003

289.41

247.75

21 October 2003

294.73

244.79

28 October 2003

297.14

249.07

4 November 2003

297.43

246.57

11 November 2003

298.14

251.60

18 November 2003

296.69

255.37

25 November 2003

289.46

245.67

2 December 2003

294.88

256.74

9 December 2003

301.41

261.05

16 December 2003

304.11

259.31

23 December 2003

306.51

255.76

30 December 2003

308.28

255.77

6 January 2004

309.60

265.41

13 January 2004

316.48

268.41

20 January 2004

314.52

270.77

27 January 2004

310.29

266.99

3 February 2004

307.81

261.77

10 February 2004

307.48

261.58

17 February 2004

310.87

267.07

24 February 2004

311.65

268.51

2 March 2004

314.58

274.84

9 March 2004

311.47

272.06

16 March 2004

316.06

279.67

23 March 2004

319.64

284.59

30 March 2004

322.14

282.57

6 April 2004

321.36

281.46

13 April 2004

316.29

277.42

20 April 2004

319.52

275.38

27 April 2004

316.92

274.24

4 May 2004

313.88

277.64

11 May 2004

311.48

271.30

18 May 2004

310.12

267.05

25 May 2004

314.72

275.65

1 June 2004

315.21

281.75

8 June 2004

313.17

271.44

15 June 2004

305.07

266.62

22 June 2004

302.90

267.60

29 June 2004

305.23

267.29

6 July 2004

306.65

270.24

13 July 2004

307.54

270.15

20 July 2004

312.03

272.30

27 July 2004

307.06

265.68

3 August 2004

306.69

269.29

10 August 2004

303.99

269.86

17 August 2004

307.68

271.69

24 August 2004

311.39

274.27

31 August 2004

311.46

276.50

7 September 2004

309.32

270.65

14 September 2004

319.69

273.39

21 September 2004

317.72

277.93

28 September 2004

318.61

281.73

5 October 2004

317.48

284.47

12 October 2004

317.69

284.42

19 October 2004

312.94

285.41

26 October 2004

313.14

288.19

2 November 2004

315.04

281.06

9 November 2004

319.55

283.36

16 November 2004

321.96

285.64

23 November 2004

323.94

288.72

30 November 2004

324.30

290.94

7 December 2004

324.26

281.21

14 December 2004

322.24

279.37

21 December 2004

323.12

286.73

28 December 2004

322.51

284.27

4 January 2005

319.22

279.13

11 January 2005

320.91

281.33

18 January 2005

319.36

283.79

25 January 2005

321.16

286.52

1 February 2005

322.20

283.91

8 February 2005

320.57

281.46

15 February 2005

324.45

289.33

22 February 2005

328.48

297.66

1 March 2005

329.03

305.26

8 March 2005

332.69

312.65

15 March 2005

335.63

320.50

22 March 2005

334.02

313.02

29 March 2005

334.36

308.93

5 April 2005

333.48

308.77

12 April 2005

338.20

302.63

19 April 2005

337.17

304.03

26 April 2005

338.70

309.78

3 May 2005

335.64

299.69

10 May 2005

334.90

301.44

17 May 2005

330.82

294.09

24 May 2005

328.92

296.72

31 May 2005

330.21

300.83

7 June 2005

331.15

306.21

14 June 2005

331.26

304.96

21 June 2005

333.72

311.69

28 June 2005

331.36

308.82

5 July 2005

329.56

314.33

12 July 2005

324.14

313.54

19 July 2005

323.09

308.13

26 July 2005

324.22

309.23

2 August 2005

326.00

320.01

9 August 2005

320.49

313.87

16 August 2005

322.36

312.07

23 August 2005

326.00

312.92

30 August 2005

327.22

318.44

6 September 2005

330.47

325.01

13 September 2005

329.94

317.78

20 September 2005

328.33

324.22

27 September 2005

330.60

325.94

4 October 2005

330.39

332.80

11 October 2005

334.95

336.16

18 October 2005

333.47

335.07

25 October 2005

333.41

337.43

1 November 2005

332.01

327.20

8 November 2005

333.18

330.95

15 November 2005

332.30

329.50

22 November 2005

332.59

330.87

29 November 2005

331.61

330.03

6 December 2005

339.87

339.46

13 December 2005

354.09

349.11

20 December 2005

353.34

343.91

27 December 2005

355.19

342.94

3 January 2006

355.81

352.29

10 January 2006

360.26

351.73

17 January 2006

362.89

354.50

24 January 2006

366.66

355.82

31 January 2006

368.48

363.30

7 February 2006

371.73

355.64

14 February 2006

372.87

348.82

21 February 2006

371.90

354.93

28 February 2006

369.84

353.27

7 March 2006

371.26

350.99

14 March 2006

368.95

351.24

21 March 2006

372.68

351.27

28 March 2006

373.64

358.05

4 April 2006

376.94

361.59

11 April 2006

380.35

365.58

18 April 2006

386.33

378.34

25 April 2006

394.36

376.80

2 May 2006

396.28

386.49

9 May 2006

400.46

390.26

16 May 2006

401.38

390.98

23 May 2006

399.93

387.10

30 May 2006

405.99

384.44

6 June 2006

401.08

379.92

13 June 2006

396.16

363.66

20 June 2006

398.84

368.80

27 June 2006

398.53

373.21

11 July 2006

405.13

391.77

18 July 2006

404.57

378.25

25 July 2006

401.55

379.68

1 August 2006

406.39

393.86

8 August 2006

406.56

394.78

15 August 2006

404.20

384.90

22 August 2006

403.88

385.55

29 August 2006

401.14

381.73

5 September 2006

405.65

392.46

12 September 2006

401.20

373.24

19 September 2006

401.15

366.06

26 September 2006

404.62

361.78

3 October 2006

406.89

363.61

10 October 2006

409.58

368.11

17 October 2006

417.76

382.02

24 October 2006

422.15

382.59

31 October 2006

426.42

383.92

7 November 2006

428.85

395.11

14 November 2006

423.40

391.75

21 November 2006

426.58

395.68

28 November 2006

430.19

400.87

5 December 2006

433.55

403.37

12 December 2006

433.87

397.29

19 December 2006

436.21

395.47

26 December 2006

432.58

392.94

9 January 2007

426.12

379.97

16 January 2007

430.31

384.25

23 January 2007

435.15

392.56

30 January 2007

431.28

391.18

6 February 2007

428.95

393.97

13 February 2007

431.83

397.88

20 February 2007

436.43

399.67

27 February 2007

442.58

411.01

6 March 2007

449.08

401.41

13 March 2007

452.86

399.90

20 March 2007

454.77

401.11

27 March 2007

458.44

405.53

3 April 2007

461.21

403.55

10 April 2007

466.25

409.35

17 April 2007

468.39

406.14

24 April 2007

468.94

403.09

1 May 2007

469.34

403.84

8 May 2007

471.96

403.49

15 May 2007

468.57

404.79

22 May 2007

467.99

402.38

29 May 2007

466.28

401.43

5 June 2007

476.74

412.26

12 June 2007

475.01

406.99

19 June 2007

476.46

413.63

26 June 2007

475.29

403.88

3 July 2007

480.46

412.41

10 July 2007

483.42

418.99

17 July 2007

482.90

415.66

24 July 2007

488.34

419.46

31 July 2007

487.08

424.52

7 August 2007

488.67

418.76

14 August 2007

479.88

416.11

21 August 2007

469.86

400.92

28 August 2007

474.01

405.72

4 September 2007

475.78

416.51

11 September 2007

477.32

425.38

18 September 2007

483.21

433.41

25 September 2007

490.74

443.94

2 October 2007

493.60

442.43

9 October 2007

489.72

438.57

16 October 2007

492.80

450.65

23 October 2007

493.35

446.09

30 October 2007

491.40

450.14

6 November 2007

493.39

458.79

13 November 2007

489.19

448.10

20 November 2007

481.00

452.36

27 November 2007

477.52

453.61

4 December 2007

473.24

455.39

11 December 2007

475.75

465.31

18 December 2007

472.14

467.63

8 January 2008

482.34

489.10

15 January 2008

477.55

494.93

22 January 2008

475.09

484.98

29 January 2008

477.86

500.23

5 February 2008

478.12

503.95

12 February 2008

485.72

515.69

19 February 2008

493.41

538.17

26 February 2008

503.47

557.35

4 March 2008

523.88

565.48

11 March 2008

510.73

564.74

18 March 2008

516.04

545.00

25 March 2008

509.91

527.07

1 April 2008

508.40

513.06

8 April 2008

509.92

531.48

15 April 2008

519.92

548.38

22 April 2008

523.32

549.42

29 April 2008

525.59

536.95

6 May 2008

521.03

543.54

13 May 2008

525.71

547.98

20 May 2008

510.07

548.62

27 May 2008

507.85

544.40

3 June 2008

494.48

541.52

10 June 2008

491.89

555.44

17 June 2008

498.05

581.52

Note. The Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) spot industrials index consists entirely of industrial commodities, excluding energy. The CRB futures index gives about a 60 percent weight to food
commodities and splits the remaining weight roughly equally among energy commodities, industrial commodities, and precious metals.

Selected Commodity Price Indexes
(Percent change)

12/18/07
to
4/22/08 2

2007 1

Index

4/22/08 2
to
6/17/08

52-week
change to
6/17/08

JOC industrials

7.6

17.6

.2

14.2

JOC metals

2.1

31.9

-10.7

6.1

CRB spot industrials

8.2

10.8

-4.8

4.5

CRB spot foodstuffs

25.5

17.4

7.1

31.3

CRB futures

18.2

17.5

5.8

40.6

1. From the last week of the preceding year to the last week of the year indicated.  Return to table
2. April 22, 2008, is the Tuesday preceding publication of the April Greenbook.  Return to table

Hourly Compensation and Unit Labor Costs
(Percent change from preceding period at compound annual rate; based on seasonally adjusted data)

Category

2006:Q1
to
2007:Q1

2007:Q1
to
2008:Q1e

2007
Q2

Q3

2008
Q1 e

Q4

Compensation per hour
Nonfarm business

4.9

4.0

1.3

3.3

6.6

4.9

4.3

.6

-1.3

-2.5

4.7

2.0

Unit labor costs
Nonfarm business
e Staff estimate.  Return to table

Figure: Compensation per Hour
(Percent change from year-earlier period)
Percent

Period
1996:Q1

ECI Productivity and costs*
2.8

3.1

1996:Q2

2.9

3.5

1996:Q3

2.9

3.7

1996:Q4

3.1

3.2

1997:Q1

3.0

2.8

1997:Q2

2.9

2.6

1997:Q3

3.1

2.8

1997:Q4

3.5

4.2

1998:Q1

3.6

5.5

1998:Q2

3.5

6.1

1998:Q3

3.9

6.8

1998:Q4

3.5

5.5

1999:Q1

2.9

5.5

1999:Q2

3.3

4.5

1999:Q3

3.0

3.7

1999:Q4

3.5

5.2

2000:Q1

4.6

7.0

2000:Q2

4.6

6.8

2000:Q3

4.7

8.0

2000:Q4

4.2

6.5

2001:Q1

4.2

4.5

2001:Q2

4.0

4.9

2001:Q3

4.0

3.4

2001:Q4

4.1

3.6

2002:Q1

3.8

3.5

2002:Q2

4.0

4.0

2002:Q3

3.5

3.9

2002:Q4

3.1

3.2

2003:Q1

3.6

3.0

2003:Q2

3.5

3.5

2003:Q3

3.9

4.4

2003:Q4

4.0

5.3

2004:Q1

3.8

3.8

2004:Q2

3.9

3.4

2004:Q3

3.8

3.4

2004:Q4

3.8

3.9

2005:Q1

3.5

4.8

2005:Q2

3.1

3.9

2005:Q3

2.9

4.0

2005:Q4

2.9

3.4

2006:Q1

2.6

4.2

2006:Q2

2.8

3.8

2006:Q3

3.0

2.7

2006:Q4

3.2

5.0

2007:Q1

3.2

4.9

2007:Q2

3.1

5.3

2007:Q3

3.1

5.8

2007:Q4

3.0

4.4

2008:Q1

3.2

4.0

* Value for 2008:Q1 is a staff estimate.  Return to table

Figure: Unit Labor
Costs
(Percent change from
year-earlier period)

Period

Percent

1996:Q1

1.0

1996:Q2

0.5

1996:Q3

0.5

1996:Q4

0.7

1997:Q1

1.6

1997:Q2

1.2

1997:Q3

0.9

1997:Q4

2.0

1998:Q1

2.1

1998:Q2

3.7

1998:Q3

4.1

1998:Q4

2.7

1999:Q1

2.6

1999:Q2

1.6

1999:Q3

1.3

1999:Q4

1.6

2000:Q1

4.7

2000:Q2

2.9

2000:Q3

5.0

2000:Q4

4.3

2001:Q1

2.0

2001:Q2

2.8

2001:Q3

0.7

2001:Q4

0.3

2002:Q1

-1.6

2002:Q2

0.1

2002:Q3

-0.6

2002:Q4

0.2

2003:Q1

0.9

2003:Q2

0.2

2003:Q3

-0.3

2003:Q4

0.5

2004:Q1

-0.2

2004:Q2

-0.4

2004:Q3

1.9

2004:Q4

2.1

2005:Q1

2.4

2005:Q2

2.5

2005:Q3

1.7

2005:Q4

1.6

2006:Q1

2.8

2006:Q2

2.2

2006:Q3

2.6

2006:Q4

4.2

2007:Q1

4.3

2007:Q2

4.3

2007:Q3

2.8

2007:Q4

1.4

2008:Q1*

0.6

* Value for 2008:Q1 is a staff estimate.  Return to table

Figure: Average Hourly
Earnings
(Percent change from yearearlier period)

Period

Percent

January 1996

3.22

February 1996

2.95

March 1996

2.94

April 1996

3.28

May 1996

3.36

June 1996

3.53

July 1996

3.25

August 1996

3.42

September 1996

3.58

October 1996

3.40

November 1996

3.65

December 1996

3.73

January 1997

3.63

February 1997

3.79

March 1997

4.04

April 1997

3.60

May 1997

3.76

June 1997

3.57

July 1997

3.65

August 1997

3.97

September 1997

3.71

October 1997

4.19

November 1997

4.18

December 1997

4.08

January 1998

4.07

February 1998

4.22

March 1998

4.12

April 1998

4.36

May 1998

4.26

June 1998

4.17

July 1998

4.08

August 1998

4.14

September 1998

4.13

October 1998

3.71

November 1998

3.62

December 1998

3.61

January 1999

3.75

February 1999

3.58

March 1999

3.57

April 1999

3.56

May 1999

3.63

June 1999

3.70

July 1999

3.92

August 1999

3.51

September 1999

3.81

October 1999

3.81

November 1999

3.64

December 1999

3.71

January 2000

3.62

February 2000

3.76

March 2000

3.82

April 2000

3.96

May 2000

3.80

June 2000

3.79

July 2000

3.77

August 2000

3.84

September 2000

3.75

October 2000

3.96

November 2000

4.17

December 2000

4.23

January 2001

3.93

February 2001

4.20

March 2001

4.12

April 2001

3.88

May 2001

4.02

June 2001

4.08

July 2001

3.78

August 2001

3.77

September 2001

3.68

October 2001

3.39

November 2001

3.44

December 2001

3.29

January 2002

3.29

February 2002

2.85

March 2002

2.77

April 2002

2.63

May 2002

2.62

June 2002

2.75

July 2002

2.88

August 2002

2.88

September 2002

2.94

October 2002

3.14

November 2002

2.92

December 2002

3.12

January 2003

3.12

February 2003

3.38

March 2003

3.17

April 2003

3.03

May 2003

3.09

June 2003

2.74

July 2003

2.80

August 2003

2.66

September 2003

2.32

October 2003

2.05

November 2003

2.11

December 2003

1.78

January 2004

1.91

February 2004

1.64

March 2004

1.83

April 2004

2.09

May 2004

1.96

June 2004

2.02

July 2004

2.01

August 2004

2.14

September 2004

2.40

October 2004

2.53

November 2004

2.46

December 2004

2.52

January 2005

2.58

February 2005

2.51

March 2005

2.63

April 2005

2.69

May 2005

2.62

June 2005

2.62

July 2005

2.80

August 2005

2.73

September 2005

2.60

October 2005

3.03

November 2005

2.90

December 2005

3.15

January 2006

3.27

February 2006

3.52

March 2006

3.57

April 2006

4.00

May 2006

3.80

June 2006

3.98

July 2006

3.96

August 2006

4.02

September 2006

4.20

October 2006

3.99

November 2006

4.17

December 2006

4.28

January 2007

4.20

February 2007

4.12

March 2007

4.17

April 2007

3.78

May 2007

4.08

June 2007

4.13

July 2007

4.05

August 2007

4.04

September 2007

4.09

October 2007

3.78

November 2007

3.83

December 2007

3.69

January 2008

3.68

February 2008

3.73

March 2008

3.65

April 2008

3.47

May 2008

3.46

Figure: Markup, Nonfarm Business
Ratio

Period

Nonfarm Business Markup

1996:Q1

1.619

1996:Q2

1.626

1996:Q3

1.625

1996:Q4

1.628

1997:Q1

1.623

1997:Q2

1.635

1997:Q3

1.638

1997:Q4

1.621

1998:Q1

1.605

1998:Q2

1.588

1998:Q3

1.585

1998:Q4

1.586

1999:Q1

1.576

1999:Q2

1.580

1999:Q3

1.583

1999:Q4

1.583

2000:Q1

1.535

2000:Q2

1.565

2000:Q3

1.537

2000:Q4

1.548

2001:Q1

1.531

2001:Q2

1.553

2001:Q3

1.554

2001:Q4

1.572

2002:Q1

1.574

2002:Q2

1.568

2002:Q3

1.580

2002:Q4

1.585

2003:Q1

1.585

2003:Q2

1.583

2003:Q3

1.606

2003:Q4

1.596

2004:Q1

1.614

2004:Q2

1.624

2004:Q3

1.616

2004:Q4

1.613

2005:Q1

1.628

2005:Q2

1.635

2005:Q3

1.645

2005:Q4

1.642

2006:Q1

1.636

2006:Q2

1.657

2006:Q3

1.651

2006:Q4

1.611

2007:Q1

1.605

2007:Q2

1.619

2007:Q3

1.630

2007:Q4

1.617

2008:Q1

1.620

Average, 1968-present: 1.572
Note. The markup is the ratio of output price to unit labor costs. Value for 2008:Q1 is a staff estimate.

† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014

Accessible Material
June 2008 Greenbook Part 2 Tables and Charts†
Domestic Financial Developments
Selected Financial Market Quotations
(One-day quotes in percent except as noted)

2007

2008

Change to June 17 from selected dates (percentage points)

Instrument
Aug. 6

Jan. 31

Apr. 29

June 17

2007 Aug. 6

2008 Jan. 31

2008 Apr. 29

Short-term
FOMC intended federal funds rate

5.25

3.00

2.25

2.00

-3.25

-1.00

-.25

3-month

4.74

1.92

1.44

1.96

-2.78

.04

.52

6-month

4.72

2.02

1.70

2.27

-2.45

.25

.57

1-month

5.26

2.95

2.50

2.40

-2.86

-.55

-.10

3-month

5.29

2.98

2.83

2.84

-2.45

-.14

.01

3-month

5.34

3.01

2.84

2.80

-2.54

-.21

-.04

6-month

5.27

2.93

2.98

3.22

-2.05

.29

.24

1-month

5.33

3.15

2.90

2.70

-2.63

-.45

-.20

3-month

5.35

3.15

3.15

3.05

-2.30

-.10

-.10

8.25

6.00

5.25

5.00

-3.25

-1.00

-.25

2-year

4.49

2.16

2.28

2.90

-1.59

.74

.62

5-year

4.52

2.83

3.11

3.68

-.84

.85

.57

10-year

4.82

3.86

4.04

4.45

-.37

.59

.41

5-year

2.43

.68

1.10

1.24

-1.19

.56

.14

10-year

2.48

1.35

1.71

1.86

-.62

.51

.15

4.51

4.39

4.68

4.59

.08

.20

-.09

5.44

4.23

4.39

4.92

-.52

.69

.53

5.34

4.28

4.53

5.06

-.28

.78

.53

6.12

5.62

6.01

6.49

.37

.87

.48

6.57

6.39

6.82

7.07

.50

.68

.25

9.21

9.80

9.80

9.91

.70

.11

.11

6.59

5.68

6.06

6.32

-.27

.64

.26

Treasury bills1

Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates)2

Large negotiable CDs 1

Eurodollar deposits3

 

 

Bank prime rate
Intermediate- and long-term
U.S. Treasury 4

U.S. Treasury indexed notes 5

 

 

Municipal general obligations (Bond Buyer) 6
Private instruments
10-year swap
10-year FNMA
10-year AA

7

8

10-year BBB 8
10-year high yield

8

Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate)9
30-year fixed

1-year adjustable

5.65

5.05

Record high

5.29

5.09

2008

-.56

.04

-.20

Change to June 17 from selected dates (percent)

Stock exchange index
Level

Date

Jan. 31

Apr. 29

June 17

Record high

2008 Jan. 31

2008 Apr. 29

Dow Jones Industrial

14,165

10-9-07

12,650

12,832

12,160

-14.15

-3.87

-5.23

S&P 500 Composite

1,565

10-9-07

1,379

1,391

1,351

-13.69

-2.00

-2.88

Nasdaq

5,049

3-10-00

2,390

2,426

2,458

-51.32

2.84

1.30

Russell 2000

856

7-13-07

713

719

737

-13.93

3.26

2.45

Wilshire 5000

15,807

10-9-07

13,897

14,033

13,841

-12.44

-.40

-1.37

1. Secondary market.  Return to table
2. Financial commercial paper.  Return to table
3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. eastern time.  Return to table
4. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities.  Return to table
5. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using all outstanding securities and adjusted for the carry effect.  Return to table
6. Most recent Thursday quote.  Return to table
7. Constant-maturity yields estimated from Fannie Mae domestic noncallable coupon securities.  Return to table
8. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data.  Return to table
9. Home mortgage rates for June 17, 2008, are for the week ending June 12, 2008.  Return to table
NOTES:
 August 6, 2007, is the day before the August 2007 FOMC meeting.
 January 31, 2008, is the day after the January 2008 FOMC meeting.
 April 29, 2008, is the day before the most recent FOMC monetary policy announcement.

Policy Expectations and Treasury Yields
Figure: December 2008 Eurodollar Rate
A line chart plots the December 2008 eurodollar rate from April 30 through June 17, 2008, sampled at 5-minute intervals from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. each
business day, with no adjustments for term premiums. Unit is percent. Several notable events are marked with vertical tripwires.

As shown in the figure, the curve begins on April 30 at about 3.0 percent, increases slightly before that day's FOMC statement, then decreases to about 2.8 by the
next day. The curve increases back to around 3.0 after nonfarm payrolls (April) on May 2. It generally decreases to about 2.7 by May 9, then generally increases
again to about 3.0 by retail sales (April) on May 13. The curve increases to about 3.2 by May 14, then generally decreases to about 2.9 by the FOMC minutes on
May 21. It increases to almost 3.1 on May 22, returns to about 3.0 on May 23, and remains at about that level until May 27. It climbs to about 3.1 after durable
goods on May 28, generally increases to just over 3.2 by May 29, and decreases to less than 3.1 after PCE on May 30. The curve fluctuates between about 2.9
and 3.1 over the next few days, briefly reaches about 3.2 by nonfarm payrolls (May) on June 5, drops to about 3.0 on June 6, and then begins to increase
markedly. It reaches about 3.4 by Chairman Bernanke's speech on June 9, about 3.6 by retail sales (May) on June 12, and ends at about 3.7 percent on June 17.

Figure: Implied Federal Funds Rate
A line chart shows implied federal funds rates for June 2008 through July 2010, estimated on April 29, 2008 and June 17, 2008. Unit is percent. Both curves begin
at about 2.0 percent. The April 29 curve dips slightly below 2.0 by about August 2008, then increases fairly steadily to about 3.35 by July 2010. The June 17 curve
increases slowly at first, but then increases fairly steadily to about 4.25 by July 2010.
Note. Estimated from federal funds and Eurodollar futures, with an allowance for term premiums and other adjustments.

Figure: Implied Volatility of Interest Rates
A line chart plots two series: "10-year Treasury (right scale)", and "6-month Eurodollar (left scale)*", from October 2005 through June 17, 2008. Data are daily; unit
is basis points. The range of the left axis is approximately 30 to 300. The range of the right axis is 200 to 1200. Due to the choice of ranges, the two curves
appear to track closely between about December 2005 and June 2006, and both series track fairly closely throughout the chart. The April 2008 FOMC meeting is
marked with a tripwire.

As shown in the figure, the 6-month Eurodollar series begins October 2005 at about 110 basis points. The curve fluctuates between about 80 and 110 until
December 2006, when it increases slightly to about 130. Then it declines to about 60 in January 2007 until the end of February, when it increases to about 130
again. It generally decreases to below 50 towards the end of May 2007. In June 2007 it increases to about 75, and starts to rise in late July 2007, reaching close to
250. The series declines to about 130 by October 2007, then increases just above 200 by January 2008, and drops to about 110 shortly before the April 2008
FOMC meeting. It then increases to about 135 around the time of the meeting, decreases to near 110 after the meeting, and ends at about 175 on June 17, 2008.

As shown in the figure, the 10-year Treasury series begins October 2005 around 500 basis points. The curve generally decreases to about 400 by September
2006, and fluctuates between about 350 and 500 through June 2007. It generally increases to about 700 by August, declines to below 500 in November 2007, then
generally increases to about 1000 by March 2008. The curve fluctuates between about 700 and 800 around the time of the April FOMC meeting, increases to
about 900, and ends at about 825 on June 17, 2008.
* Width of a 90 percent confidence interval computed from the term structures for the expected federal funds rate and implied volatility.  Return to text

Figure: Treasury Yield Curve
A line chart plots two series, Treasury yields 0 to 20 years ahead, estimated on April 29, 2008 and June 17, 2008. Unit is percent. As shown in the figure, the
April 29 curve starts at about 1.7 percent and gradually increases to about 4.0 by year 10 and about 4.6 percent by year 20. The June 17 curve starts at about 2.4
percent and gradually increases to about 4.5 by year 10 and about 4.9 by year 20.
Note. Smoothed yield curve estimated from off-the-run Treasury coupon securities. Yields shown are those on notional par Treasury securities with semiannual coupons.

Figure: Inflation Compensation
A line chart shows two series, "5 to 10 years ahead" and "Next five years*" from January 2007 through June 17, 2008. Data are daily; unit is percent. The April
2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a tripwire.

As shown in the figure, the "5 to 10 years ahead" curve starts at about 2.45 percent. It fluctuates between about 2.4 and 2.6 through mid-June 2007, and between
about 2.6 and 2.7 from mid-June through early September 2007. It rises just above 2.8 in mid-September, then fluctuates between about 2.6 and 2.8 through midJanuary 2008. It then generally increases to about 3.0 by late January, and to about 3.2 by March, then generally decreases to about 2.75 by the April FOMC
meeting, and ends at about 2.8 on June 17, 2008.

As shown in the figure, the "Next five years" curve starts at about 2.3 in January 2007, and fluctuates between about 2.2 and 2.4 through late July 2007. It then
begins to fluctuate more widely, between about 2.0 and 2.4, from August 2007 through mid-March 2008, when it drops briefly to about 1.8. The curve then
generally increases to about 2.0 by the April FOMC meeting, and to just above 2.4 by June 17, 2008.
Note. Estimates based on smoothed nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields.
* Adjusted for lagged indexation of TIPS.  Return to text

Short-Term Funding and Interbank Markets
Figure: Spreads between 30-Day Libor and OIS Rates
A line chart shows a single series from July 2007 through June 18, 2008. Data is daily, unit is basis points. The April 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a
vertical tripwire.

The series begins at about 5 basis points in July 2007, increases to about 95 by September 2007, decreases to about 18 by early November and increases to
about 110 by December2007. It then decreases to about 9 in January 2008, increases to about 85, shortly before the April 2008 FOMC meeting, and decreases to
about 80, around the time of March 2008, FOMC meeting. The series decreases after the meeting to about 40 and ends at about 43 on June 18, 2008.
Note. LIBOR quotes are taken at 6:00 am, and OIS quotes are observed at the close of business of the previous trading day.

Figure: Spreads on 30-Day Commercial Paper
A line chart shows two series, "A2/P2", and "ABCP" from July 2007 through June 17, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The April 2008 FOMC meeting is
marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "A2/P2" series begins at about 15 basis points in July 2007, increases to about 98 in September, decreases to about 27 in early November and increases to
about 150 by December 2007. It then declines to about 50 in January 2008. The series increases to about 100, around the time of the April 2008 FOMC meeting,
and decreases briefly after the meeting to end at about 70 on June 17, 2008.

The ""ABCP"" series begins at about 5 basis points in July 2007, increases to about 110 in September, decreases to about 25 in late October and increases to
about 175 by December 2007. It then declines to about 30 in January 2008. The series increases to about 95, around the time of the April 2008 FOMC meeting,
and decreases briefly after the meeting to end at about 50 on April 22, 2008.
Note. The ABCP spread is the AA ABCP rate minus the AA financial rate. The A2/P2 spread is the A2/P2 nonfinancial rate minus the AA nonfinancial rate.

Figure: Primary Credit Borrowing

A line chart shows a single series, "Weekly average (Wednesday)", from July 2007 through June 11, 2008. Unit is billions. The April 2008 FOMC meeting is
marked with a vertical tripwire.

The series begins at about 0 in July 2007, generally increases to about 2.5 billion in September, decreases to about 0 by late September, and generally increases
to about 6 in January 2008. It then decreases to about 0 in February, and generally increases to about 11.5 around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting. The
series then generally increases to about 16, shortly after the meeting and decreases to end at about 13 on June 11, 2008.

Figure: Federal Funds Rates
A line chart shows two series, "Target", and "Effective" from July 2007 through June 17, 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent. The April 2008 FOMC meeting is
marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Target" series begins at about 5.3 percent in July 2007, decreases to about 4.5 in August and increases back to about 5.3 by September 2007, decreases
with fluctuations to about 3.1 by January 2008. It then increases to about 4.25 in early January and decreases to about 3.0 in February, and it is at about 2.25,
around the time of April 2008 FOMC meeting. Briefly after the meeting, the series decreases to end at about 2.0, on June 17, 2008.

The "Effective" series begins at about 5.3 percent in July 2007, decreases to about 4.75 in September 2007, and decreases with fluctuations to about 4.25 by
January 2008. It then decreases to about 3.0 in February, and it is at about 2.25, around the time of April 2008 FOMC meeting. Briefly after the meeting, the series
decreases to end at about 2.0, on June 17, 2008.

Figure: Treasury Repo Rates for General Collateral
A line chart shows two series, "Overnight", and "1-Month" from July 2007 through June 17, 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent. The March 2008 FOMC meeting is
marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Overnight" series begins at about 5 percent in July 2007, decreases to about 2.2 in August and increases to about 5.3 by September 2007, decreases with
fluctuations to about 1.5 by January 2008. It then increases to about 3.1 in February, decreases to about 0.25 in March, and then increases to about 2, around the
time of April 2008 FOMC meeting. The series ends at about the same on June 17, 2008.

The "1-month" series begins at about 5 percent in July 2007, decreases to about 3.5 in mid-August 2007, and increases to about 4.75 by late August. It then
decreases to about 2.5 in January 2008, about 1.2 in March, and then increases to about 2, around the time of April 2008 FOMC meeting. The series ends at
about the same on June 17, 2008.

Figure: Primary Dealer Credit Facility
A line chart shows a single series, "Weekly average (Wednesday)", from August 2007 through June 11, 2008. Unit is billions. The April 2008 FOMC meeting is
marked with a vertical tripwire.

The series begins at about 0 in August 2007, stays about the same through mid-March, increases to about 38 billion in early April 2008, and generally decreases
to about 18, around the time of April 2008 FOMC meeting. Briefly after the meeting, the series decreases and ends at about 8 on June 11, 2008.

Corporate Yields, Risk Spreads, and Stock Prices
Figure: Selected Stock Price Indexes
A line chart shows two curves, DJ Financial and S&P 500, from January 2007 through June 17, 2008 on a daily basis. Unit is an index, April 29, 2008 = 100. The
April 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a tripwire.

As shown in the figure, the DJ Financial curve starts at about 137 at the beginning of 2007, generally increases to about 141 by February, decreases to about 129
by March, generally increases to about 140 by May, and generally decreases to about 117 by August. It then generally increases to about 132 by October, and
generally decreases to about 100 around the time of the April 2008 FOMC meeting, and to about 88 by June 17, 2008.

As shown in the figure, the S&P 500 curve starts at about 103 at the beginning of 2007, generally increases to about 105 by February, decreases to about 99 by
early March, generally increases to about 111 by July, and generally decreases to about 103 by August. It then generally increases to about 112 by October,
generally decreases to about 93 by March 2008, generally increases to about 100 around the time of the April 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends at about 97 on June
17, 2008.

Figure: Ratio of Trend Earnings to Price for S&P 500 and Long-Run Treasury Yield

A line chart shows two series, "(Trend earnings) / P*" and "Long-run real Treasury yield", from 1985 through June 17, 2008+ on a monthly basis. Unit is percent.

As shown in the figure, the "(Trend earnings) / P" curve begins at about 11 percent in 1985, fluctuates between about 6 and 9 percent between about 1986 and
1994, generally decreases to less than 4 by 1999, generally increases to almost 8 by 2002, and generally decreases to about 5.5 by the end of 2003. It fluctuates
around that level through 2007, generally increases to about 7.5, and then decreases slightly to end at about 7 on June 17, 2008.

As shown in the figure, the "Long-run real Treasury yield" curve begins at about 8 percent in 1985, generally decreases to about 4 by 1986, and then fluctuates
but generally decreases to about 2.5 by June 17, 2008.
* Trend earnings are estimated using analysts' forecasts of year-ahead earnings from I/B/E/S.  Return to text
+ Denotes the latest observation using daily interest rates and stock prices and latest earnings data from I/B/E/S.  Return to text

Figure: Implied Volatility on S&P 500 (VIX)
A line chart plots the VIX from 2002 through June 17, 2008 on a weekly Friday* basis. Unit is percent. The April 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a tripwire.

As shown in the figure, the curve begins at about 21 percent in January 2002, and fluctuates between about 17 and 22 through the first half of the year. The curve
then generally increases to about 42 by the second half of 2002, fluctuates more widely between about 23 and 40, then generally decreases to about 18 by early
2003. It then fluctuates and generally decreases to about 10 by early 2007, and generally increases to about 18 by mid-2007. The curve then fluctuates more
widely between about 17 and 32 for the remainder of the period. The curve is about 17 around the time of the April 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends at about 21 on
June 17, 2008.
* Latest observation is for most recent business day.  Return to text

Figure: Corporate Bond Yields
A line chart shows two series, "10-year high-yield" and "10-year BBB", from 2002 through June 17, 2008 on a daily basis. Unit is percent. The April 2008 FOMC
meeting is marked with a tripwire.

As shown in the figure, the "10-year high-yield" curve begins at around 11 percent at the beginning of 2002, generally increases to about 12.5 by late 2002, then
generally decreases to about 8.25 by late 2003. It fluctuates around that level through early 2007, generally increases to about 10.5 in early 2008, then generally
decreases to about 9.5 by the April 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends at about 10 on June 17, 2008.

As shown in the figure, the "10-year BBB" curve begins at around 7.5 percent at the beginning of 2002, fluctuates around that level through mid-year, then
generally decreases to about 5 by mid-2003. The curve then fluctuates between about 5 and 6.75 through the end of the period, ending at about 7 on June 17,
2008. Around the time of the April 2008 FOMC meeting, the series is about 6.75 percent.
Note. Yields from smoothed yield curves based on Merrill Lynch bond data.

Figure: Corporate Bond Spreads
A line chart shows two series, "10-year high-yield" and "10-year BBB", from 2002 through June 17, 2008 on a daily basis. The "10-year high-yield" curve is plotted
according to the left axis, which ranges from 0 to about 900 basis points. The "10-year BBB" curve is plotted according to the right axis, which ranges from 75 to
450 basis points. Due to the choice of ranges, the two curves appear to move roughly in parallel. The April 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a tripwire.

As shown in the figure, the "10-year high-yield" curve begins at about 550 basis points at the beginning of 2002, generally increases to about 900 later the same
year, then generally decreases to about 350 by late 2003. The curve fluctuates around that level through mid-2007, generally increases to about 700 by early 2008,
generally decreases to about 600 by the April 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends at about 575 on June 17, 2008.

As shown in the figure, the "10-year BBB " curve begins at about 200 basis points at the beginning of 2002, generally increases to about 315 later the same year,
then generally decreases to about 125 by late 2003. The curve fluctuates between about 90 and 150 through mid-2007, generally increases to about 300 by early
2008, generally decreases to about 265 by the April 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends at about 255 on June 17, 2008.
Note. Measured relative to comparable-maturity Treasuries.

Figure: Investment-Grade CDS Indexes
A line chart plots two series, Financial and Nonfinancial, from 2002 through June 17, 2008. Data are daily; unit is basis points. The two curves track fairly closely
between mid-2002 and mid-2007. The April 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a tripwire.

As shown in the figure, the Financial curve starts at about 75 basis points at the beginning of 2002, and generally decreases to about 55 by early 2002. It then
generally increases to about 115 by late 2002, generally decreases to about 20 by late 2006, and generally increases to about 175 by early 2008. The curve then
generally decreases to about 100 basis points by the April 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends just above 100 on June 17, 2008.

As shown in the figure, the Nonfinancial curve starts just below 100 basis points at the beginning of 2002, and generally decreases to about 75 by mid-2002. It
then generally increases to about 100 again by late 2002, and generally decreases to around 35 by late 2003. The curve then fluctuates between about 23 and 50
through late 2007, generally increases to about 95 by early 2008, generally decreases to about 55 by the April 2008 FOMC meeting, and ends at about 60 on June
17, 2008.

Corporate Earnings and Credit Quality
Figure: S&P 500 Earnings per Share
A line chart shows two series, "All firms", and "Nonfinancials" from 1998 through 2008:Q1p. Data is a change from 4 quarters earlier; unit is percent.

The "All firms" series begins at about 2 percent in 1998, increases to about 22 by mid-1999, decreases to about -25 by mid-2001 and increases to about 26 by
early 2004. It then decreases to about -26 by 2007:Q4 and ends at about -18 in 2008:Q1p .

The "Nonfinancials" series begins at about -1 percent in 1998, increases to about 22 by mid-1999, decreases to about -26 by mid-2001 and increases to about 33
by early 2004. It then decreases to about 12 by 2007:Q4 and ends at about 10 in 2008:Q1p .
p Preliminary.  Return to text
Source. I/B/E/S for S&P 500 earnings per share.

Figure: Revisions to Expected S&P 500 Earnings
A line chart shows two series, "All firms", and "Nonfinancials" from 2002 through mid-May 2008. Data is monthly; unit is percent. The two series track fairly closely
through 2007:Q3, and diverge at the end of the period.

The "All firms" series begins at about -0.7 percent in 2002, generally decreases to about -3 by late 2002, generally increases to about 2.1 by 2004 and then
generally decreases to end at about -1.1 percent by mid-May 2008.

The "Nonfinancials" series begins at about -1 percent in 2002, decreases to about -3.6 by late 2002, increases to about 2.4 by 2004 and then generally decreases
to about -1 percent by 2008. It then increases, and ends at about 0.75 in mid-May 2008.
Note. Index is a weighted average of the percent change in the consensus forecasts of current-year and following-year EPS for a fixed sample.

Figure: Financial Ratios for Nonfinancial Corporations
A line chart shows two series, "Debt over total assets (right scale)", and "Liquid assets over total assets (left scale)" from 1989 through 2007:Q4. The right scale
range is between 0.20 and 0.35, and the left scale range is between 0.03 and 0.12. Data is annual*; unit is ratio.

The "Debt over total assets" series begins at about 0.325 in mid-1989, decreases to about 0.275 in 1996, increases to about 0.305 in 1999 and then decreases to
about 0.275 in 2000. It increases to about 0.30 in 2002:Q1 decreases to about 0.245 in 2005, and then increases to end at about 0.26 in 2007:Q4.

The "Liquid assets over total assets" series begins at about 0.05 in mid-1989, generally increases to about 0.105 in 2004 and then decreases to end at about 0.1
in 2007:Q4.
* Data are quarterly starting in 2000:Q1.  Return to text
Source. Calculated with Compustat data.

Figure: Selected Default and Delinquency Rates
A line chart shows two series, "C&I loan delinquency rate (Call Report)", and "Bond default rate"* from 1990 through April 2008. Unit is Percent of outstandings.

The "C&I loan delinquency rate (Call Report)" series begins at about 5 in 1990:Q1, increases to about 6.2 in 1991, and decreases to about 1.5 in 1997 and 1998.
It then increases to about 3.9 in 2002 and ends at about 1.4 in 2008:Q1.

The "Bond default rate"* series begins at about 1.5 in 1990Q3, increases to about 3.2 in 1991, and decreases to about 0 in 1993. It fluctuates between about 0.01
and 1.2 through 2000, increases to about 3.8 in 2002:Q4 and then decreases to end at about 0.25 in April 2008.
* 6-month moving average, from Moody's Investors Service.  Return to text

Figure: Bond Ratings Changes of Nonfinancial Companies
A bar chart shows two series, "Upgrades", and "Downgrades" from 1992 through 2008:Q1. Data is annual rate; unit is percent of outstandings.

The estimated figures for Upgrades/Downgrades are as follows: 1992: +7, 36. 1993: +9, 15. 1994: +7, 10. 1995: +20, 8. 1996: +11, 11. 1997: +9, 10. 1998: +15,
10. 1999: +13, 17. 2000: +10, 22. 2001: +6, 31. 2002: +3, 37. 2003: +4, 20. 2004: +8, 10. 2005: +9, 13. 2006: +8, 14. 2007: +10, 10. 2008 Q1: +5, 7.
Source. Calculated with data from Moody's Investors Service.

Figure: Expected Year-Ahead Defaults
A line chart shows a single series from 1993 through May 2008. Data is monthly; unit is Percent of liabilities.

The series begins at about 0.6 percent in 1993, decreases to about 0.2 in 1997, increases to about 1.55 in 2002, and decreases to about 0.2 in 2007. It increases
to about 0.7 in early 2008, and then decreases to end at about 0.65 in May 2008.
Note. Firm-level estimates of default weighted by firm liabilities as a percent of total liabilities, excluding defaulted firms.
Source. Moody's KMV.

Business Finance
Gross Issuance of Securities by U.S. Corporations
(Billions of dollars; monthly rates, not seasonally adjusted)

2007
Type of security

2004

2005

2008

2006
H1

H2

Q1

Apr.

May

Nonfinancial corporations
Stocks 1

5.4

4.6

4.7

5.5

5.4

2.3

4.3

6.3

Initial public offerings

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.6

.3

1.6

.7

Seasoned offerings

3.8

2.8

2.9

3.9

3.8

2.0

2.7

5.5

 

 

Bonds

2

22.7

19.1

29.8

37.9

33.3

29.3

33.6

49.8

Investment grade

8.2

8.4

13.0

14.2

20.1

23.9

23.3

29.6

Speculative grade

9.7

6.4

8.0

15.4

5.1

1.7

4.3

11.6

Other (sold abroad/unrated)

4.9

4.3

8.8

8.3

8.1

3.7

6.0

8.5

1.7

-.2

2.4

1.1

-2.0

4.5

8.3

-9.9

2.4

9.6

11.7

14.0

28.1

15.6

7.7

4.9

6.9

5.0

5.3

9.3

7.9

13.2

24.0

25.2

139.3 176.3 187.7 207.1 104.9

57.6

91.2

87.9

Memo
Net issuance of commercial paper3
Change in C&I loans at commercial banks

3,4

Financial corporations
Stocks 1
Bonds 2

Note. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.
1. Excludes private placements and equity-for-equity swaps that occur in restructurings.  Return to table
2. Data include regular and 144a private placements. Bond totals reflect gross proceeds rather than par value of original discount bonds. Bonds are categorized according to Moody's bond ratings
or to Standard & Poor's if unrated by Moody's.  Return to table
3. End-of-period basis, seasonally adjusted.  Return to table
4. Based on adjusted commercial bank credit data through April 9.  Return to table

Figure: Selected Components of Net Debt Financing
A stacked bar chart plots three series, commercial paper*, C&I loans*, and bonds, in billions of dollars at a monthly rate, for nonfinancial firms. The total (sum) of
the three series is shown as a curve superimposed on the bars. Approximate values are as follows. For commercial paper: 2003: -3. 2004: 2. 2005: -1. 2006: 4.
2007:H1: 1. 2007:H2: -2.5. 2008:Q1: 4. 2008: April: 8. 2008: May: -10. For C&I loans: 2003: -8. 2004: 4. 2005: 10. 2006: 13. 2007:H1: 12. 2007:H2: 30. 2008: Q1:

15. 2008: April: 7. 2008: May: 5. For bonds: 2003: 13. 2004: 6. 2005: 5. 2006: 18. 2007:H1: 28. 2007:H2: 25. 2008: Q1: 13. 2008: April: 22.5. 2008: May: 37.
Approximate totals: 2003: 2. 2004: 12. 2005: 14. 2006: 35. 2007:H1: 41. 2007:H2: 53. 2008: Q1: 33. 2008: April: 38. 2008: May: 32.
* Seasonally adjusted, period-end basis.  Return to text

Figure: Components of Net Equity Issuance
A stacked bar chart plots four series, public issuance, private issuance, repurchases, and cash mergers, in billions of dollars at a monthly rate, for nonfinancial
firms. The total (sum) of the four series is shown as a curve superimposed on the bars. Approximate values are as follows. For public issuance: 2003: 3. 2004: 4.5.
2005: 3.5. 2006: 4. 2007:H1: 5. 2007:H2: 4. 2008:Q1e: 10. For private issuance: 2003: 7. 2004: 7. 2005: 7.5. 2006: 10. 2007:H1: 13. 2007:H2: 17. 2008:Q1e: 10.
For repurchases: 2003: -11. 2004: -18. 2005: -28. 2006: -37. 2007:H1: -43. 2007:H2: -48. 2008:Q1e: -29. For cash mergers: 2003: -4. 2004: -67. 2005: -14. 2006:
-25. 2007:H1: -26. 2007:H2: -50. 2008:Q1e: -24. Approximate totals: 2003: -76. 2004: -13. 2005: -31. 2006: -47. 2007:H1: -50. 2007:H2: -73. 2008:Q1e : -46.
e Staff estimate  Return to text

Commercial Real Estate
Figure: Commercial Mortgage Debt
A line chart shows commercial mortgage debt from 1996:Q4 through 2008:Q1. Data are quarterly; unit is percent change from year earlier. As shown in the figure,
the curve begins in 1996:Q4 slightly above 4 percent, generally increases to about 16 by 1999:Q3, and remains at about that level through 2000:Q2. It then
generally decreases to a little less than 8 by 2002:Q4, generally increases back to around 16 by 2006:Q1, then generally decreases to end at about 12 in 2008:Q1.
Source. Flow of funds.

Figure: BBB Commercial Mortgage CDS Index Spreads (CMBX.NA)
A line chart shows three series, 2006:H2*, 2006:H1*, and 2005:H2*, on a daily basis from about October 2006 through June 17, 2008. Unit is basis points. As
shown in the figure, the three curves follow the same general shape.

The 2005:H2 curve begins in October 2006 at about 50 basis points, remains at about that level through mid-February 2007, fluctuates between about 50 and 150
through July, then begins to fluctuate more widely and generally increases to almost 1200 by March 2008. It then generally decreases to just under 400 by April,
and ends at about 600 on June 17, 2008.

The 2006:H1 curve begins in October 2006 at about 50 basis points, remains at about that level through mid-February 2007, fluctuates between about 50 and 200
through July, then begins to fluctuate more widely and generally increases to almost 1600 by March 2008. It then generally decreases to about 750 by April , and
ends at about 800 on June 17, 2008.

The 2006:H2 curve begins in April 2007 at about 200 basis points, fluctuates between about 180 and 300 through July, then begins to fluctuate more widely and
generally increases to about 2000 by March 2008. It then generally decreases to about 1100 by April, and ends at about 1200 on June 17, 2008.
Note. Measured relative to Libor.
* Corresponds to pools of mortgages originated in that period.  Return to text
Source. JP Morgan.

Figure: Sales of Commercial Real Estate
A line chart shows two curves, monthly sales of commercial real estate, and the 3-month moving average. Unit is billions of dollars. As shown in the figure, the 3month moving average series begins around March 2001 at about 6, remains at about that level through April 2002, then generally increases to about 31 by
September 2006. It generally increases to about 74 by April 2007, fluctuates between about 51 and 61 through November 2007, then decreases to a preliminary
estimate of about 20 by May 2008. The monthly sales curve follows the same general shape as the 3-month moving average, but with greater volatility. It begins
in January 2001 at about 7, generally increases to about 43 by January 2007, increases further to about 120 by February 2007, and decreases to about 33 by
March 2007. The curve fluctuates between about 30 and 80 through the end of 2007, and generally decreases to a preliminary estimate of just below 20 by May
2008.
Source. Real Capital Analytics.

Figure: Prices
A line chart shows two series, "Transacted property" and "All property", from 1988 through2008:Q1 on a quarterly basis. Unit is an index, 1996:Q4=100. As shown
in the figure, the transacted property curve begins just below 100 in 1994:Q1, and stays at about that level through 1996:Q1. It then starts to increase to about 125
by 1997:Q4, and fluctuates around that level through about 2002:Q4. The curve generally increases to about 250 by mid-2007, and ends at about 240 in 2008:Q1.
The all property curve starts at about 110 in 1988, increases to about 125 by late 1990, then generally decreases to just below 100 from 1993 through 1996. It then
generally increases to about 130 from early 2001 through 2003, and continues to increase to end at about 225 in 2008:Q1.

Note: All-property index based on entire NCREIF portfolio. Transacted-property index based on sales involving NCREIF portfolio.
Source. NCREIF, MIT Center for Real Estate.

Figure: Delinquency Rates on Commercial Mortgages
A line chart shows two series, "At commercial banks*" and "At life insurance companies", from 1995:Q4 through 2008:Q1, and a third series, CMBS, from about
January 1999 through May 2008. Unit is percent.

As shown in the figure, the "At commercial banks" curve begins in 1995:Q4 at about 3.3 percent, and generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2000:Q2. It increases to
just below 2 by 2001:Q3, generally decreases to about 1 by 2006:Q1, then increases to end at about 3.5 by 2008:Q1. The "At life insurance companies" curve
begins in 1995:Q4 at about 2.3 percent, increases to about 2.7 percent by 1996:Q2, decreases to about 0.3 by 1999:Q2, then generally continues to decrease
through 2008:Q1 until it is close to zero. The CMBS curve begins in 1999 at about 0.4 percent, generally increases to nearly 2 by late 2003, generally decreases to
about 0.4 by early 2007, and remains at about that level through May 2008, ending at about 0.5.
* Excluding farm land.  Return to text
Source. Citigroup, Call Report, ACLI.

Figure: Delinquency Rates on Commercial Mortgages at Banks
A line chart shows three curves on a quarterly basis, "Residential construction", "Commercial construction", and "Existing properties", for 2007:Q1 through 2008:Q1.
Unit is percent. As shown in the figure, approximate values for each quarter are as follows: For commercial construction, 1.75, 1.8, 2.3, 3.75 and 5.5 . For
residential construction, 2.6, 3.1, 4.25, 7.3 and 11. For existing properties, 1.25, 1.2, 1.25, 1.6 and 1.9.
Source. Call Report. Data series begin in 2007:Q1.

Residential Mortgages
Figure: Mortgage Debt
A line chart shows a single series from 2001 through 2008:Q1. Data is quarterly; unit is percent change from year earlier.

The series begins at about 9.3 in 2001:Q1, increases to about 13.8 in 2003:Q2, decreases to about 12.2 by 2003:Q4, and increases to about 14.5 in 2004:Q4. It
decreases to about 13.2 by 2005:Q4, increases to about 14.1 in 2006:Q1, and then decreases to end at about 5.2 in 2008:Q1.
Source. Flow of funds.

Figure: Delinquencies on Mortgages
A line chart shows two series, "Subprime (left scale)", and "Prime (right scale)" from 2001 through April 2008. The left scale ranges from 4 to 20, and the right
scale ranges from 0.0 to 3.0. Data is monthly; unit is percent of loans.

The Subprime series begins at about 7.5 percent in 2001, increases to about 9.5 in early 2002, decreases to about 4.5 in 2005 and then increases to end at about
18 in April 2008.

The Prime series begins at about 1.0 in 2001, increases to about 1.25 in early 2002, decreases to about 0.75 in 2007 and then increases to end at about 1.55 in
April 2008.
Note. Percent of loans 90 or more days past due or in foreclosure. Prime includes near-prime mortgages.
Source. First American LoanPerformance.

Figure: Prime Conforming Mortgage Rate and Spread
A line chart shows two series, "30-year fixed-rate (right scale)", and "30-year fixed-rate spread (left scale)" from October 2006 through June 11, 2008. The right
scale ranges from 4.5 to 7.0; unit is percent. The left scale ranges from 125 to 300; unit is basis points. Data is weekly. The April 2008, FOMC meeting is marked
with a vertical tripwire.

The "30-year fixed-rate" series begins at about 6.45 in September 2006, fluctuates between about 6.1 and 6.4 through early May and increases to about 6.75 in
June 2007. The series generally decreases to about 5.5 in January 2008, increases to about 6.25 in late February, and it is at about 6.05, shortly before the April
2008, FOMC meeting. It then generally increases to end at about 6.3 on June 11, 2008.

The "30-year fixed-rate spread" series begins at about 165 in September 2006, decreases to about 145 in January 2007. The series increases to about 219 in
November and decreases to about 190 in January 2008, and generally increases to about 260 in early March. It then decreases to about 226, around the time of
April 2008, FOMC meeting, decreases to about 205 briefly after the meeting, and increases to end at about 220 on June 11, 2008.
Note. FRM spread relative to 10-year Treasury.
Source. Freddie Mac.

Figure: Agency and Non-agency MBS Issuance
A bar chart shows two series, "Agency", and "Non-agency" from 2001 through 2008: Q1 and April. Data is monthly rate; unit is billions of dollars.

The estimated values for Non-agency/ Agency are as follows: 2001: 20/90. 2002: 25/125. 2003: 40/135. 2004: 60/85. 2005: 90/80 2006: 85/75. 2007:H1: 75/100.
2007:H2: 25/100. 2008:Q1: 0.01/105. 2008: April: 0/110.
Source. For agency issuance, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. For non-agency issuance, Inside Mortgage Finance MBS database.

Figure: 30-Year Option-Adjusted Current Coupon Spreads
A line chart shows two series, "Fannie Mae", and "Ginnie Mae" from October 2006 through June 11, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The April 2008,
FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The two series track closely throughout the period.

The "Fannie Mae" series begins at about 70 basis points in September 2006, decreases to about 50 in December 2006, generally increases to about 130 in
November 2007, decreases to about 65 in January 2008, and increases to about 195 in early March. The series generally decreases to about 100, around the time
of April 2008, FOMC meeting. It then generally increases briefly after the meeting, and ends at about 125 on June 11, 2008.

The "Ginnie Mae" series begins at about 53 basis points in September 2006, decreases to about 30 in late December 2006, generally increases to about 100 in
November 2007, decreases to about 45 in January 2008, and increases to about 145, shortly before the April 2008, FOMC meeting. It then generally decreases to
about 75 around the time of the meeting, and generally increases to end at about 110 on June 11, 2008.
Note. Option-adjusted spread from Bloomberg's prepayment model.
Source. Bloomberg.

Figure: GSE Credit Default Swap Index
A line chart shows a single series, "GSE Index" from October 2006 through June 13, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points. The April 2008, FOMC meeting is
marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "GSE Index" series begins at about 5 basis points in September 2006, and stays about the same through March 2007, increases to about 10 in mid-March
and decreases back to about 5 in June. It then increases to about 35 in August 2007, decreases to about 15 in October, increases to about 65 in November and
decreases to about 35 in December. The series then increases to about 94 in early March, then generally decreases to about 36 around the time of April 2008,
FOMC meeting, and generally increases to end at about 50 on June 13, 2008.
Note. Sector index is the median of individual quotes for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Bank System.
Source. Markit.

Consumer Credit and Household Wealth
Figure: House Prices
A line chart shows a single series, "OFHEO purchase-only index" from 1996 through 2008:Q1. Data is quarterly, s.a. Unit is percent change, annual rate.

The series begins at about 2.5 percent in 1996, generally increases to about 10 in late 2005, and then generally decreases to end at about -7.5 in 2008:Q1.
Source. Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

Figure: Delinquencies on Consumer Loans
A line chart shows three series, "Credit card loans in securitized pools", "Nonrevolving consumer loans at commercial banks", and "Auto loans at captive finance
companies" from 1997 through April 2008. Unit is percent.

The "Credit card loans in securitized pools" series begins at about 5.3 percent in 1997, decreases to about 4.4 in early 2000, increases to about 5.4 in 2003 and

generally decreases to about 3.3 in late 2005. It then increases to end at about 4.5 in April 2008.

The "Nonrevolving consumer loans at commercial banks" series begins at about 3.2 percent in 1997, increases to about 3.3 in early 1999, decreases to about 2.1
in late 2005 and increases to end at about 2.7 in 2008:Q1.

The "Auto loans at captive finance companies" series begins at about 3.5 percent in 1997, decreases to about 2 in early 2000, fluctuates between about 2 and 2.3
through 2007 and then increases to end at about 2.5 in April 2008.
Source. For nonrevolving, Call Report; for credit cards, Moody's; for auto loans, Federal Reserve.

Figure: Consumer Credit
A line chart shows a single series, from 1997 through April 2008. Data is a 3-month moving average, annual rate; unit is percent change from year earlier. The
series begins at about 9 percent in 1997, decreases to about 3 in 1998, increases to about 17 in 2000 and then decreases to about 5 in 2001, and about 6 in
2002. It then fluctuates between about 2 and 8.5 through 2007 and ends at about 4.5 in April 2008.

Figure: Gross Issuance of Consumer ABS by Type
A bar chart shows three series, "Auto", "Credit card", and "Student loans" from 2002 through 2008:Q2*. Data is monthly rate; unit is billions of dollars. The
estimated values for Student loans, credit card and auto are as follows: 2002: 2.5, 5 and 9. 2003: 4, 5, and 7. 2004: 5, 5 and 6. 2005: 6, 6 and 7. 2006: 7, 6, and 7.
2007:H1: 7, 8 and 7. 2007:H2: 4, 8 and 4. 2008:Q1: 3, 10 and 3. 2008:Q2: 7, 9 and 5.
Note. Auto includes car loans, leases, and financing for buyers of motorcycles, trucks, and other vehicles.
* Through June 13.  Return to text
Source. Inside Mortgage Finance MBS database, Merrill Lynch.

Net Flows into Mutual Funds
(Billions of dollars, monthly rate)

2007
Fund type

H1
Total long-term funds

2008

Assets

2006
H2

Apr.

May

Apr.

18.9

32.0

13.3

14.8

0.9

1.2

International

12.4

13.5

9.6

Hybrid funds

0.6

2.6

1.1

0.7

2.3

2.9

699

Bond funds

5.0

14.6

3.5

16.0

16.7

17.9

1,755

High-yield

-0.2

0.2

-0.7

-1.3

2.0

1.9

155

Other taxable

4.0

12.0

4.8

15.2

11.3

11.0

1,220

Municipals

1.3

2.4

-0.6

2.1

3.4

5.0

380

27.8

26.3

98.8

119.6

-84.6

91.3

3,418

Equity funds
Domestic

Money market funds

5.8

Q1

e

1.7

31.3

33.5

8,642

1.2

-14.9

12.2

12.7

6,188

-8.4

-13.4

6.2

4.8

4,584

-1.5

6.0

7.9

1,604

Note. Excludes reinvested dividends.
e Staff estimate based on confidential weekly data.  Return to table
Source. Investment Company Institute.

Treasury Finance
Figure: Foreign Participation in Treasury Auctions
A line chart shows two series, "Indirect bids", and "Actual foreign allotment" from 2000 through June 16, 2008. Data is a 6-month moving average; unit is percent
of total issue.

The "Indirect bids" series begins at about 22 percent in late 2003, increases to about 32 by late 2004, fluctuates between about 25 and 34, and decreases to end
at about 26 June 16, 2008.

The "Actual foreign allotment" series begins at about 10 percent in 2000, fluctuates and increases to about 25 in 2004, and generally decreases to end at about 15
on June 16, 2008.

Note. Indirect bids and actual allotment are a percentage of the total amount accepted, including the amount tendered to the Federal Reserve. Moving averages include 2-, 5-, and 10- year
original auctions and reopenings.

Figure: Foreign Custody Holdings
A line chart shows two series, "Treasury", and "Agency" from 2003 through June 11, 2008. Data is weekly average; unit is billions of dollars. The April 2008, FOMC
meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Treasury" series begins at about $700 billion at the beginning of 2003 and generally increases to about 1325 around the time of the April 2008, FOMC
meeting and ends at about 1350 on June 11, 2008.

The "Agency" series begins at about $100 billion at the beginning of 2003 and generally increases to about 925 around the time of the April 2008, FOMC meeting
and ends at about 950 on June 11, 2008.
Note. Securities held in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on behalf of foreign official institutions.

Figure: Securities Lending
A line chart shows a single series from 2003 through June 11, 2008. Data is weekly (Wed.) average; unit is billions of dollars.

The series begins at about $1.5 billion at the beginning of 2003, fluctuates between about 0 and 6 through 2006, increases to about 22 in 2008 and ends at about
9.5 on June 11, 2008.
Note. Volume of securities lent to market participants from the System Open Market Account portfolio through the overnight facility.

Figure: Bid-Ask Spread
A line chart shows "2-year on-the-run Treasury notes" from February 2006 through June 17, 2008. Data is a 5-day moving average; unit is cents per $100 face
value. The April 2008, FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "2-year on-the-run Treasury notes" series begins at about 0.80 cents per $100 face value, in February 2006, fluctuates between about 0.82 and 0.875 through
August 2007, and increases to about 1.08 in December 2007. The series decreases to about 0.875 in February 2008, increases to about 1.25 in March 2008, and
generally decreases to about 0.92 around the time of April 2008, FOMC meeting. It then generally increases to end at about 0.975 on June 17, 2008.
Source. BrokerTec Interdealer Market Data.

Figure: Average Absolute Nominal Yield Curve Fitting Error
A line chart shows a single series, from 2001 through June 17, 2008. Data is daily; unit is basis points.

The series begins at about 3 basis points in 2001, increases to about 13 in late 2001 and decreases to generally fluctuate between 1 and 4 through 2007. It then
generally increases to about 8.5 in 2008 and ends at about 7.5 on June 17, 2008.
Note. Calculated from securities with 2 to 10 years until maturity, excluding on-the-run and first off-the-run securities.

Figure: Treasury On-the-Run Premiums
A line chart shows two series, "10-year", and "2-year" from 2001 through June 2008. Data is monthly average; unit is basis points.

The "10-year" series begins at about 15 basis points in early 2001, increases to about 27 in 2002, generally decreases to about 5 in 2007 and then ends at about
24 in June 2008.

The "2-year" series begins at about 7.5 in 2001, generally decreases to about -2.5 in 2002, fluctuates between about -4 and 5 throughout the period and then
increases to end at about 6 in June 2008.
Note. Computed as the spread of the yield read from an estimated off-the-run yield curve over the on-the-run Treasury yield. June observation is the month to date average.

State and Local Government Finance

Gross Offerings of Municipal Securities
(Billions of dollars; monthly rate, not seasonally adjusted)

2007
Type of security

2004

2005

H1
Total

2008

2006
H2

Q1

Apr.

May

34.7

Long-term

Refundings

2

New capital
Short-term
Memo: Long-term taxable   

38.4

36.1

41.9

38.9

29.0

54.3

42.6

29.8

1

34.2

32.5

38.5

32.6

27.6

51.8

40.9

10.8

15.6

10.6

16.5

8.7

10.7

26.8

20.7

19.0

18.6

21.9

22.0

23.9

16.9

25.0

20.1

4.9

4.2

3.7

3.4

6.3

1.3

2.5

1.7

2.0

2.1

2.5

2.2

2.6

1.8

5.0

1.9

1. Includes issues for public and private purposes.  Return to table
2. All issues that include any refunding bonds.  Return to table

Figure: Ratings Changes
A bar graph shows two series, Upgrades and Downgrades, at an annual rate from 1989 through 2006, 2007:H1, 2007:H2, 2008:Q1, April, and May. Unit is number
of ratings changes. Upgrades are plotted within a range of 0 to 3500. Downgrades are plotted within a range of 0 to 2100.

The estimated figures for upgrades/downgrades are as follows: 1989: 150/150. 1990: 100/500. 1991: 100/600. 1992: 500/550. 1993: 300/300. 1994: 350/400. 1995:
375/350. 1996: 700/200. 1997: 800/100. 1998: 650/100. 1999: 1050/400. 2000: 1200/450. 2001: 1100/700. 2002: 600/1600. 2003: 650/1000. 2004: 1000/600. 2005:
1100/900. 2006: 1800/300. 2007:H1: 1900/800. 2007:H2: 1800/1300. 2008, Q1: 400/800. 2008, April: 1600/400. 2008, May: 2250/700.
Source. S&P's Credit Week Municipal and Ratings Direct.

Figure: Municipal Bond Yields
A line chart shows general obligation as two series, "20-year", and "1-year" from 1994 through June 17, 2008. Data is weekly; unit is percent.

The 20-year series begins at about 5.5 percent in 1994 increases to about 7 in late 1994, decreases to about 5 in 1998 and increases to about 6 in 2000. It then
generally decreases to about 4.1 in March 2008, and ends at about 4.5 on June 12, 2008.

The 1-year series begins at about 3.5 percent in 1999, increases to about 4.5 in mid-2000, decreases to about 1 in mid-2003 and increases to about 3.75 in mid2006. It then decreases to end at about 2.3 on June 17, 2008.
Source. Municipal Market Advisors and Bond Buyer.

Figure: Municipal Bond Yield Ratio
A line chart shows "General Obligation over Treasury" as a single series from 1994 through June 12, 2008. Data is weekly; unit is ratio.

The series begins at about 0.83 in 1994, fluctuates and increases to about 0.98 in late 2001, decreases to about 0.85 in early 2007 and then increases to about
1.15 in March 2008, and then decreases to end at about 0.94 on June 12, 2008.
Source. Bond Buyer.

M2 Monetary Aggregate
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Percent change (annual rate) 1
Aggregate and components

2007
2006

2007
Q4

M2

Level
(billions
of dollars),
May

2008
Q1

Apr.

May

4.9

5.8

4.8

9.5

2.4

1.2

7,684

3.5

2.0

1.1

-.6

-3.2

4.4

763

Components 2
Currency

Liquid deposits3

.7

4.5

2.1

6.8

1.0

8.0

4,646

Small time deposits

18.6

4.1

5.7

2.9

-6.0

-5.7

1,205

Retail money market funds

13.0

19.3

20.4

39.0

22.0

-22.6

1,064

15.7

39.3

54.1

46.7

23.0

18.5

2,223

3.1

2.0

1.0

-.5

-3.5

2.8

827

Memo:
Institutional money market funds
Monetary base

1. For years, Q4 to Q4; for quarters and months, calculated from corresponding average levels.  Return to table
2. Nonbank traveler's checks are not listed.  Return to table
3. Sum of demand deposits, other checkable deposits, and savings deposits.  Return to table

Commercial Bank Credit
(Percent change, annual rate, except as noted; seasonally adjusted)

Type of credit

Total

2007

H2
2007

Q4
2007

Q1
2008

Apr.
2008

May
2008

Level1
May
2008

10.6

11.1

9.5

6.8

-5.4

2.2

9,004

11.3

11.3

10.5

9.9

.2

2.7

6,816

Commercial and industrial

19.2

25.2

27.5

15.8

12.3

3.3

1,491

Commercial real estate

10.1

9.8

9.0

9.3

11.0

6.5

1,644

5.8

-1.4

-5.4

5.4

2.1

-6.0

1,876

Loans2
Total
To businesses

To households
Residential real estate
Revolving home equity

5.7

6.4

7.3

11.0

19.9

12.9

508

Other

5.8

-4.0

-9.6

3.5

-4.2

-12.8

1,369

Consumer

7.9

10.8

10.6

7.5

9.2

6.2

822

7.2

9.4

8.4

7.7

9.4

8.1

1,237

16.7

20.8

20.9

12.4

-45.5

9.1

984

8.4

10.7

6.3

-2.5

-22.2

.7

2,188

-5.5

-5.0

-17.4

-6.9

-5.4

5.1

1,128

27.9

30.0

34.2

2.1

-39.5

-4.1

1,060

Originated 3
Other

4

Securities
Total
Treasury and agency
Other

5

Note. Yearly annual rates are Q4 to Q4; quarterly and monthly annual rates use corresponding average levels. Data have been adjusted to remove the effects of mark-to-market accounting rules
(FIN 39 and FAS 115), the initial consolidation of certain variable interest entities (FIN 46), the initial adoption of fair value accounting (FAS 159), and the effects of sizable thrift-to-bank and
bank-to-thrift structure activity in October 2006, March 2007, and October 2007. Data also account for breaks caused by reclassifications.
1. Billions of dollars. Pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels.  Return to table
2. Excludes interbank loans.  Return to table
3. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks.  Return to table
4. Includes security loans and loans to farmers, state and local governments, and all others not elsewhere classified. Also includes lease financing receivables.  Return to table
5. Includes private mortgage-backed securities; securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments; and any trading account assets that are not Treasury or agency
securities.  Return to table

Figure: C&I Loan Rate Spreads
A line chart shows two series, "Weighted average", and "Weighted average adjusted"*, from 1997 through 2008:Q2. Data is quarterly, unit is basis points.

The "Weighted average" series begins at about 153 in mid-1997, it generally increases to about 221 in 2004, and then generally decreases to end at about 180 in
2008:Q2.

The "Weighted average adjusted"* series begins at about 153 in mid-1997, generally increases to about 200 by early 2003, and generally decreases to about 139
in early 2006. The series ends at about 141 in 2008:Q2.
Note. Spreads over market interest rate on an instrument of comparable maturity on loans less than $25 million (2006$).
* Adjusted for changes in nonprice loan characteristics.  Return to text
Source. Survey of Terms of Business Lending.

Figure: Return on Assets at Commercial Banks
A line chart shows two series, "100 largest banks", and "All other banks" from 1991 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent.

The "100 largest banks" series begins at about 0.25 in 1991, generally increases to about 1.25 in 1993, and fluctuates between about 0.95 and 1.6 through 2008.
It then generally decreases to about 0.25 by early 2008, and increases to end at about 0.6 in 2008:Q1.

The "All other banks" series begins at about 0.25 in 1991, generally increases to about 1.49 in 1998, and generally decreases to about 1.2 in 2000 and 2001. It
then generally increases to about 1.4 by 2007, generally decreases to about 0.8 by early 2008, and increases to end at about 0.95 in 2008:Q1.
Source. Call Report.

† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014

Accessible Material
June 2008 Greenbook Part 2 Tables and Charts†
International Developments
Trade in Goods and Services
Annual rate
2007

2007
Q3

Monthly rate

2008
Q4

Q1

2008
Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

Percent change
Nominal BOP
Exports

14.5

27.4

10.4

18.4

2.2

-1.9

3.3

Imports

9.7

10.2

11.4

13.8

2.9

-3.3

4.5

Exports

8.4

19.1

6.5

2.8

…

…

…

Imports

1.0

4.4

-1.4

-2.6

…

…

…

-700.3 -672.5 -695.1 -699.7

-60.6

-56.5

-60.9

-819.4 -804.8 -835.7 -844.1

-72.5

-68.4

-72.9

11.9

11.9

12.0

Real NIPA

Billions of dollars
Nominal BOP
Net exports
Goods, net
Services, net

119.1

132.4

140.5

144.5

Source. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureaus of Economic Analysis and Census.
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

U.S. International Trade In Goods and Services
(Quarterly)

Figure: Trade Balance
A line chart shows a single series from 1999 through April 2008. Data is quarterly; unit is billions of dollars, a.r.

The series begins at about -225 in 1999, generally decreases to about -800 in 2006, increases to about -700 in 2007, and ends at about -700 in April 2008.

Figure: Contribution of Net Exports to Real GDP Growth
A bar chart shows two series, "Net exports", and "Real GDP growth" from 1999 through 2008. Unit is percentage points, a.r.

The estimated percentage point values for net exports are as follows: 2001: Q2: 0.5. 2003: Q1: 0.25 and, Q3: 0.5. 2005: Q1: 0.25, and Q2: 0.8. 2006: Q1: 0.2, Q2:
0.5 and Q4: 1.25. 2007: Q2: 1.3, Q3: 1.4 and Q4: 1.0. 2008: Q1: 0.75.

The estimated values for real GDP growth are as follows: 1999: Q1: -1.7, Q2: -1.3 and Q3: -0.75. 2000: Q1: -1.5, Q2: -1.0, Q3: -0.8, and Q4: -0.1. 2001: Q1: -0.05,
Q3: -0.55, and Q4: -0.7. 2002: Q1: -1.0, Q2: -0.6, Q3: -0.5, and Q4: -1.5. 2003: Q2: -0.75, Q4: -0.5. 2004: Q1: -0.75, Q2: -1.5, Q3: -0.4, and Q4: -1.4. 2005: Q3: 0.1, and Q4: -1.4. 2006: Q3: -0.25. 2007: Q1: -0.5.

Figure: Selected Exports

A line chart shows four series, "Capital goods ex. aircraft", "Industrial supplies", "Consumer goods", and "Aircraft" from 1999 through 2008:Q1. Unit is billions of
dollars, a.r.

The "Capital goods ex. aircraft" series begins at about $245 billion in 1999, increases to about 325 in 2000, decreases to about 230 in 2002 and 2003, and then
increases to end at about 375 in 2008:Q1.

The "Industrial supplies" series begins at about $125 billion in 1999, increases to about 160 in 2000, decreases to about 130 in early 2002, and then generally
increases to end at about 325 in 2008:Q1.

The "Consumer goods" series begins at about $75 billion in 1999, increases to about 90 in 2000, decreases to about 80 in 2002, and then increases to end at
about 155 in 2008:Q1.

The "Aircraft" series begins at about 52 billion in 1999, fluctuates between about 48 and 52 through 2004, and then generally increases to end at about 90 in
2008:Q1.

Figure: Selected Imports
A line chart shows four series, "Capital goods", "Consumer goods", "Industrial supplies", and "Oil" from 1999 through 2008. Unit is billions of dollars, a.r.

The "Capital goods" series begins at about $275 billion in 1999, increases to about 325 in 2000, decreases to about 275 in late 2001, and then generally increases
to end at about 452 in 2008:Q1.

The "Consumer goods" series begins at about $225 billion in 1999, increases to about 295 in 2000, decreases to about 275 in late 2001, and then generally
increases to end at about 475 in 2008:Q1.

The "Industrial supplies" series begins at about $140 billion in 1999, increases to about 180 in 2001, decreases to about 150 in early 2002, and then generally
increases to end at about 305 in late 2008:Q1.

The "Oil" series begins at about $45 billion in 1999, increases to about 125 in 2000, decreases to about 75 in 2002, and generally increases to about 325 in 2006.
It then decreases to about 275 in late 2006 and increases to end at about 449 in 2008:Q1.

U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services
(Billions of dollars, a.r., BOP basis)

Change 1

Levels
2007

2008

Q4

Q1

2008
Mar.

2007

Apr.

2008

Q4

Q1

2008
Mar.

Apr.

Exports of G&S

1741.9 1817.1 1806.9 1866.5

42.4

75.2

-34.8

59.6

Goods exports

1212.7 1271.3 1260.3 1314.8

30.7

58.5

-36.8

54.4

24.6

-2.3

12.6

3.0

-4.8

1200.7 1246.6 1230.9 1290.2

33.0

45.9

-39.8

59.3

Gold
Other goods
Capital goods

12.0

24.6

29.4

468.8

466.2

454.0

480.6

11.1

-2.7

-18.0

26.7

Aircraft & parts

96.3

91.3

80.1

91.1

4.8

-5.0

-17.6

11.0

Computers & accessories

44.5

43.2

43.1

47.5

-1.4

-1.3

-.4

4.4

Semiconductors
Other capital goods

53.2

52.3

51.1

50.2

3.8

-.9

-1.8

-.9

274.9

279.3

279.6

291.8

3.9

4.5

1.8

12.2

 

 

Automotive

125.8

122.4

113.3

121.0

-.5

-3.4

-16.6

7.7

Ind. supplies (ex. ag., gold)

310.4

332.5

333.4

350.5

15.2

22.1

-6.1

17.1

Consumer goods

150.5

156.9

151.0

160.8

.9

6.4

-9.3

9.8

Agricultural

102.8

117.8

124.1

127.2

3.0

15.0

5.8

3.1

All other goods

42.4

50.8

55.1

49.9

3.3

8.4

-1.3

-5.1

529.1

545.8

546.6

551.8

11.6

16.7

2.0

5.2

Imports of G&S

2437.0 2516.8 2484.8 2597.3

65.0

79.8

-83.8

112.5

Goods imports

2048.4 2115.4 2081.2 2189.9

 

 

Services exports

Gold
Other goods
Capital goods
Aircraft & parts
Computers & accessories
Semiconductors
Other capital goods

61.6

67.0

-85.8

108.7

396.1

Oil

448.7

420.3

471.1

64.0

52.6

-34.3

50.8

7.0

17.9

21.4

18.2

-3.7

10.9

-.2

-3.1

1645.3 1648.8 1639.5 1700.6

1.2

3.6

-51.3

61.1

453.1

454.4

454.6

469.6

3.4

1.3

-4.7

15.0

35.1

37.0

38.1

39.1

.1

1.9

.2

.9

105.5

104.2

107.8

108.2

1.8

-1.2

5.5

.4

27.0

26.3

26.3

27.4

.5

-.7

-.0

1.1

285.5

286.9

282.4

294.9

1.0

1.4

-10.3

12.5

 

 

Automotive

260.0

257.3

243.6

255.6

-5.0

-2.7

-29.9

12.0

Ind. supplies (ex. oil, gold)

297.4

303.6

309.6

328.6

-7.6

6.1

-2.5

19.0

Consumer goods

480.1

478.2

474.4

482.6

9.4

-1.9

-17.2

8.3

Foods, feeds, bev.

83.7

85.4

85.1

88.4

.5

1.7

-1.1

3.4

All other goods

71.0

69.9

72.3

75.7

.5

-1.1

4.2

3.4

 

 

Services imports

388.6

401.4

403.7

407.4

3.4

12.8

2.0

3.8

Oil quantity (mb/d)

13.47

14.06

12.57

13.05

.51

.59

-1.96

.48

Oil import price ($/bbl)

80.42

87.59

91.57

98.84

10.31

7.17

5.91

7.27

Memo:

1. Change from previous quarter or month.  Return to table
Source. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureaus of Economic Analysis and Census.

Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports
Figure: Merchandise Imports
A line chart shows two series, "Core goods", and "Non-oil goods" from 1999 through 2008. Unit is 12-month percentage change. The two series track fairly closely
throughout the period.

The "Core goods" series begins at about -1.9 in 1999, increases to about 1.8 in 2000, decreases to about -3.8 in early 2002, and increases to about 4 in 2004. It
then decreases to about 1 in 2006 and generally increases to end at about 7 in 2008.

The "Non-oil goods" series begins at about -2.9 in 1999, increases to about 2.2 in 2001, decreases to about -5.5 in early 2002, and increases to about 3.5 in late
2004. It then decreases to about 0.5 in 2006 and generally increases to end at about 6.5 in 2008.

Figure: Categories of Core Imports
A line chart shows two series, "Material-intensive goods", and "Finished goods" from 1999 through 2008. Unit is 12-month percent change.

The "Material-intensive goods" series begins at about -4.9 in 1999, increases to about 7 in 2000, decreases to about -10 in 2002 and generally increases to about
-13 in 2004. It then decreases to just below 5 in 2005, increases to about 11 in 2006, decreases to about 6 in 2007 and then increases to end at about 15.5 in
2008.

The "Finished goods" series begins at about -0.5 in 1999, stays about the same through 2000, it increases to about 2.5 in mid-2005, decreases to about 0 in 2006
and then increases to end at about 3 in 2008.

Figure: Oil

A line chart shows two series, "Spot WTI", and "Import unit value" from 1999 through 2008. Unit is dollars per barrel. The two series track very closely throughout
the period.

The "Spot WTI" series begins at about 10 in 1999, increases to about 35 in late 2000, decreases to about 20 in early 2002, and generally increases to about 75 in
2006. It then decreases to about 55 in early 2007, and increases to end at about 130 in 2008.

The "Import unit value" series begins at about 9 in 1999, increases to about 30 in late 2000, decreases to about 16 in late 2001, and generally increases to about
69 in 2006. It then decreases to about 54 in early 2007, and increases to end at about 99 in 2008.

Figure: Natural Gas
A line chart shows two series, "Import price index (left scale)", and "Spot Henry Hub" (right scale), from 1999 through 2008. Data is an index, 2000 = 100; unit is
dollars per million BTU.

The "Import price index" series begins at about 55 in 1999, increases to about 220 in late 2000, decreases back to about 55 in early 2002, and generally increases
to about 275 in 2005. It then decreases to about 125 in 2006 and increases to end at about 240 in early 2008.

The "Spot Henry Hub" series begins at about 2 in 1999, increases to about 8 in late 2000, decreases back to about 2 in late 2001, and generally increases to
about 14 in 2005. It then decreases to about 4.5 in 2006 and increases to end at about 12.5 in early 2008.

Figure: Merchandise Exports
A line chart shows two series, "Core goods", and "Total goods" from 1999 through 2008. Unit is 12-month percent change. The two series track very closely
throughout the period.

The "Core goods" series begins at about -2 in 1999, increases to about 3 in 2000, decreases to about -2.5 in 2002 and then generally increases to end at about
9.5 in 2008.

The "Total goods" series begins at about -3 in 1999, increases to about 2 in 2000, decreases to about -3 in 2002 and then generally increases to end at about 8 in
2008.

Figure: Categories of Core Exports
A line chart shows two series, "Material-intensive goods", and "Finished goods" from 1999 through 2008. Unit is 12-month percent change.

The "Material-intensive goods" series begins at about -6 in 1999, increases to about 7.5 in 2000, decreases to about -7 in late 2001 and then generally increases
to end at about 18 in 2008.

The "Finished goods" series begins at about 0.01 in 1999, and then generally increases to end at about 2.5 in 2008.

Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports
(Percentage change from previous period)

Annual rate
2007

Monthly rate

2008

2008
e

Mar.

Apr.

May

Q4

Q1

16.3

15.3

24.8

3.0

2.4

2.3

73.6

43.7

83.9

9.8

5.9

7.8

4.6

8.5

10.9

1.2

1.3

.5

3.7

9.5

11.9

1.3

1.5

.6

2.0

3.9

5.2

.4

.8

.2

2.5

4.1

8.0

.4

1.4

.4

Q2

BLS prices
Merchandise imports
Oil
Non-oil
Core goods1
Finished goods
Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi.

Automotive products

4.7

3.9

2.1

.2

.4

.0

Consumer goods

1.8

4.5

5.0

.5

.7

.2

Material-intensive goods

7.6

22.1

26.8

3.1

2.8

1.3

10.3

17.7

15.7

2.9

1.3

1.0

6.8

Foods, feeds, beverages

23.2

30.3

3.1

3.3

1.4

Industrial supplies ex. fuels
 

 

Computers

-2.7

-10.6

-2.1

-.2

-.2

.0

1.6

-7.3

-4.7

-.9

-.8

.5

78.5

88.7

92.5

6.9

6.9

5.4

Merchandise exports

7.7

12.5

8.2

1.6

.5

.3

Core goods2

9.1

15.4

10.1

2.0

.5

.5

2.6

3.7

2.8

.2

.4

.2

Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi.

3.1

5.8

3.6

.3

.4

.3

Automotive products

1.3

1.6

2.1

.1

.4

.1

Consumer goods

2.4

2.3

1.6

.2

.2

.1

Material-intensive goods

17.5

30.1

18.5

4.0

.5

.9

Agricultural products

40.9

57.5

9.9

4.4

-2.1

.3

Industrial supples ex. ag.

11.2

21.9

21.8

3.9

1.5

1.1

-3.9

-10.6

-6.3

-1.5

-.1

-.3

1.0

.6

-2.8

-1.0

.0

-.4

Semiconductors
Natural gas
 

 

Finished goods

 

 

Computers
Semiconductors

NIPA prices
Chain price index
Imports of goods & services

13.2

12.5

n.a

…

…

…

4.3

7.7

n.a

…

…

…

3.9

8.3

n.a

…

…

…

6.0

8.7

n.a

…

…

…

6.3

10.3

n.a

…

…

…

7.6

12.4

n.a

…

…

…

Non-oil merchandise
Core goods1
Exports of goods & services
Total merchandise
Core goods

2

1. Excludes computers, semiconductors, and natural gas.  Return to table
2. Excludes computers and semiconductors.  Return to table
e/ Average of two months.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

U.S. Current Account
(Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate)

Period

Goods and
services,
net

Investment
income,
net

Other income
and transfers,
net

Current
account
balance

Annual
2006

-753.3

63.8

-98.6

-788.1

2007

-700.3

88.8

-119.7

-731.2

Q2

-715.3

45.8

-106.9

-776.4

Q3

-672.5

98.9

-118.3

-691.8

Quarterly
2007:

Q4
2008:

-695.1

152.6

-126.4

-669.0

Q1

-699.7

126.3

-132.1

-705.5

Change from previous qrtr.
2007:

2.9

-12.0

20.5

11.3

Q3

42.8

53.1

-11.4

84.6

Q4
2008:

Q2

-22.7

53.7

-8.2

22.8

Q1

-4.5

-26.3

-5.7

-36.5

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure: Line 3: Net Private Banking Flows
A line chart shows a single series, "6-month moving average" from 2003 through 2008.

The series begins at about 3 in 2003:Q1, fluctuates between about 20 and -18 through 2005, generally increases to about 30 by mid-2006, and then generally
decreases to end at about -30 in 2008:Q1.

Summary of U.S. International Transactions
(Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted except as noted)

2007
2006

Q2
Official financial flows
1. Change in foreign official assets in the U.S. (increase, +)

2008

2007
Q3

Q4

Q1

Mar.

Apr.

490.3

386.9

88.8

13.4

121.5

176.2

30.2

31.2

487.9

411.1

88.8

13.5

145.5

173.5

51.3

46.4

a. G-10 countries + ECB

26.1

36.8

9.3

3.3

11.8

-1.5

2.9

3.3

b. OPEC

45.2

30.9

0.4

2.8

16.3

18.1

0.1

0.8

416.6

343.4

83.1

7.4

117.4

157.0

48.3

42.3

2.4

-24.1

0.0

-0.1

-24.0

2.7

-21.0

-15.1

348.8

387.4

104.7

88.5

91.9

-51.9

…

…

122.7

-62.2

11.7

-20.6

-33.1

-134.8

-98.9

-24.0

634.2

739.3

298.9

39.4

172.7

50.6

9.5

31.7

-58.2

156.9

-13.5

67.4

60.1

68.9

41.5

50.3

c. All other countries
2. Change in U.S. official assets (decrease, +) 1
Private financial flows
Banks
3. Change in net foreign positions of banking offices in the U.S. 2
Securities3
4. Foreign net purchases (+) of U.S. securities
a. Treasury securities

25.8

19.4

36.3

-2.6

16.4

-18.2

-29.5

-22.9

c. Corporate and municipal bonds

b. Agency bonds

517.8

372.0

169.5

-7.3

37.9

-10.6

-12.9

12.0

d. Corporate stocks 4

148.9

191.1

106.6

-18.1

58.4

10.5

10.4

-7.7

-362.4

-286.1

-84.1

-99.2

-3.6

-37.5

-0.7

8.6

5. U.S. net acquisitions (-) of foreign securities
a. Bonds

-224.5

-166.9

-57.0

-42.5

-12.5

-10.0

3.4

10.5

b. Stock purchases

-119.1

-107.9

-27.2

-52.1

11.5

-26.8

-4.1

-1.9

-18.8

-11.3

0.0

-4.5

-2.6

-0.8

0.0

0.0

-241.2

-333.3

-93.6

-62.0

-110.9

-85.6

…

…

242.0

237.5

61.9

105.9

55.7

46.6

…

…

29.7

6.5

-1.0

5.9

-13.2

n.a.

…

…

2.2

-10.7

-1.6

0.7

-3.5

-0.9

…

…

-78.4

96.3

-87.3

118.4

27.8

109.7

…

…

c. Stock swaps 4
Other flows (quarterly data, s.a.)
6. U.S. direct investment (-) abroad
7. Foreign direct investment in the U.S.
8. Net derivatives (inflow, +)
9. Foreign acquisitions of U.S. currency
10. Other (inflow, +) 5

U.S. current account balance (s.a.)
Capital account balance (s.a.) 6
Statistical discrepancy (s.a.)

-788.1

-731.2

-194.1

-173.0

-167.2

-176.4

…

…

-3.9

-1.8

-0.1

-0.6

-0.6

-0.6

…

…

-47.1

-41.3

0.7

71.6

-45.6

52.6

…

…

Note. Data in lines 1 through 5 differ in timing and coverage from the balance of payments data published by the Department of Commerce. Details may not sum to totals because of rounding.
1. Includes changes in U.S. official reserve assets and in outstanding reciprocal currency swaps with certain foreign central banks.  Return to table
2. Changes in dollar-denominated positions of all depository institutions and bank holding companies plus certain transactions between broker-dealers and unaffiliated foreigners (particularly
borrowing and lending under repurchase agreements). Includes changes in custody liabilities other than U.S. Treasury bills.  Return to table
3. Includes commissions on securities transactions and therefore does not match exactly the data on U.S. international transactions published by the Department of Commerce.  Return to table
4. Includes (4d) or represents (5c) stocks acquired through non-market means such as mergers and reincorporations.  Return to table
5. Transactions by nonbanking concerns and other banking and official transactions not shown elsewhere plus amounts resulting from adjustments made by the Department of Commerce and
revisions (in lines 1 through 5 and 8) since publication of the quarterly data in the Survey of Current Business.  Return to table
6. Consists of transactions in nonproduced nonfinancial assets and capital transfers.  Return to table
… Not applicable.

Foreign Official Financial Flows Through April 2008 (increase, +)
Figure: Total
A line chart shows "Total" for Foreign Official Financial Flows, and its "6-month moving average" from 2003 through April 2008 (increase, +). Data is monthly, not
seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "Total" series begins at about $10 billion in 2003, fluctuates widely between about -5 and 65 through mid-2007, and decreases to about -30 in 2007:Q3. It
increases to about 105 in 2008:Q1 and then decreases and ends at about 45 in April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about $7 billion in 2003, increases to about 40 in 2004:Q1, it fluctuates between about 18 and 47 through 2007:Q4
and then increases to end at about 55 in April 2008.

Figure: G-10+ECB
A line chart shows "Foreign Official Financial Flows" as two series, "G-10+ECB" and its "6-month moving average" from 2003 through April 2008 (increase, +).
Data is monthly, not seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "G-10+ECB" series begins at about $6 billion in 2003, decreases to about -7 in 2003:Q2, increases to about 39 in 2004:Q1, and generally decreases to about
-11 by mid-2005. It fluctuates between about -7 and 11 through 2007, decreases to about -8 in 2008:Q1 and then increases to end at about 3 in April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about $2 billion in 2003, generally increases to about 25 in 2004:Q1 and Q2, it then decreases to about -2 by mid2005 and generally increases to about 4 in 2005:Q4. The series decreases to about 0 in 2006:Q2, it generally increases to about 4 in 2007:Q1, and then generally
decreases to end at about 1 in April 2008.

Figure: OPEC
A line chart shows "Foreign Official Financial Flows" as two series, "OPEC" and its "6-month moving average" from 2003 through April 2008 (increase, +). Data is
monthly, not seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "OPEC" series begins at about $-2 billion in 2003, fluctuates between about -6 and 11 through 2007, and then decreases to end at about 0.5 in April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about $-0.5 billion in 2003, fluctuates between about -1 and 6 through 2007, increases to about 5 and then
decreases to end at about 4 in April 2008.

Figure: All other countries
A line chart shows "Foreign Official Financial Flows" as two series, "All other countries" and its "6-month moving average" from 2003 through April 2008 (increase,
+). Data is monthly, not seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "All other countries" series begins at about $5 billion in 2003, fluctuates and generally increases to about 62 in 2007:Q1, and generally decreases to about -27

in 2007:Q3. The series generally increases to about 92 in 2008:Q1, and generally decreases to end at about 42 in April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about $5 billion in 2003, generally increases to about 42 by 2007:Q2, decreases to about 11 in 2007:Q4, and then
increases to end at about 49 in April 2008.

Private Securities Flows Through April 2008
Foreign Net Purchases (+) of U.S. Securities
Figure: Total

A line chart shows "Total" for Foreign Net Purchases (+) of U.S. Securities, and its 6-month moving average, from 2003 through April 2008. Data is monthly, not
seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "Total" series begins at about 18 in 2003, fluctuates and generally increases to about 150 in 2007:Q2. It then generally decreases and ends at about 30 in
April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about 27 in 2003, and generally increases to about 90 in 2007:Q2. It then generally decreases to end at about 30
in April 2008.

Figure: Treasury Securities

A line chart shows "Foreign Net Purchases (+) of U.S. Securities" as two series, "Treasury securities", and its "6-month moving average" from 2003 through April
2008 (increase, +). Data is monthly, not seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "Treasury securities" series begins at about 18 in 2003, fluctuates widely between about -38 and 50 throughout the period and ends at about 50 in April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about 5 in 2003, fluctuates between about 0 and 22 through 2005, decreases to about -10 in 2006:Q2, generally
increases to end at 22 in April 2008.

Figure: Agency Bonds

A line chart shows "Foreign Net Purchases (+) of U.S. Securities" as two series, "Agency Bonds", and its "6-month moving average" from 2003 through April 2008
(increase, +). Data is monthly, not seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "Agency Bonds" series begins at about 5 in 2003, fluctuates between about -21 and 17 throughout the period and ends at about -25 in April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about 6 in 2003, decreases to about -9 in 2003:Q4, increases to about 7 in 2005:Q1, generally decreases back to
about -9 in 2007:Q1, and ends at about -5 in April 2008.

Figure: Corporate and Municipal Bonds

A line chart shows "Foreign Net Purchases (+) of U.S. Securities" as two series, "Corporate and Municipal Bonds", and its "6-month moving average" from 2003
through April 2008 (increase, +). Data is monthly, not seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "Corporate and Municipal Bonds" series begins at about 20 in 2003, generally increases to about 68 in 2007:Q2, decreases to about -10 in 2007:Q3, and ends
at about 10 in April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about 10 in 2003, generally increases to about 40 in 2007:Q1, decreases to about 2 in 2007:Q4 and increases to
end at about 5 in April 2008.

Figure: Corporate Stocks

A line chart shows "Foreign Net Purchases (+) of U.S. Securities" as two series, "Corporate stocks", and its "6-month moving average" from 2003 through April
2008 (increase, +). Data is monthly, not seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "Corporate stocks" series begins at about -2 in 2003, generally increases to about 41 in 2007:Q2, decreases to about -40 in 2007:Q3, and ends at about -9 in
April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about 0 in 2003, generally increases to about 25 in 2007:Q2, decreases to about 5 in 2008:Q1 and increases to
end at about 5 in April 2008.

U.S. Net Acquisitions (-) of Foreign Securities
Figure: Total

A line chart shows "U.S. Net Acquisitions (-) of Foreign Securities" as two series, "Total", and its "6-month moving average" from 2003 through April 2008
(increase, +). Data is monthly, not seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "Total" series begins at about 5 in 2003, fluctuates between about 0 and -30 through 2004:Q3, increases to about 10 in 2004:Q4, it fluctuates again and
decreases to about -50 in 2006:Q4. It then fluctuates more widely, increases to about 19 in 2007:Q4, decreases to about -21 and increases to end at about 9 in
April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about -7 in 2003, generally decreases to about -40 in 2007:Q2, and then generally increases to end at about -5 in
April 2008.

Figure: Bonds

A line chart shows "U.S. Net Acquisitions (-) of Foreign Securities" as two series, "Bonds", and its "6-month moving average" from 2003 through April 2008
(increase, +). Data is monthly, not seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "Bonds" series begins at about 0 in 2003, fluctuates between about -21 and 15 through 2005:Q3, decreases to about -33 by 2007 and then increases to end
at about 10 in April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about -2 in 2003, generally decreases to about -6 in 2004:Q1, about -10 in 2004:Q4, and increases to about -2 in
2006:Q1. The series then generally decreases to about -19 and increases to end at about 0 in April 2008.

Figure: Stock Purchases & Swaps

A line chart shows "U.S. Net Acquisitions (-) of Foreign Securities" as two series, "Stock Purchases & Swaps", and its "6-month moving average" from 2003
through April 2008 (increase, +). Data is monthly, not seasonally adjusted; unit is billions of dollars.

The "Stock Purchases & Swaps" series begins at about -9 in 2003, increases to about 15 in 2004:Q4, decreases to about -35 in 2006:Q4 and increases to about 7
in 2007:Q4. It then decreases to end at about -2 in April 2008.

The "6-month moving average" series begins at about -3 in 2003, fluctuates between about -3 and -19 throughout the period and ends at about -3 in April 2008.

Exchange Value of the Dollar and Stock Market Indexes
Percent change since
April Greenbook

Latest
Exchange rates*
Euro ($/euro)
Yen (¥/$)

1.5492

2.6

108.1

4.4

Sterling ($/£)

1.9533

1.3

Canadian dollar (C$/$)

1.0197

0.0

96.3

1.0

Nominal dollar indexes*
Broad index
Major currencies index
OITP index

71.8

2.0

122.5

-0.0

Stock market indexes
339.4

-5.9

TOPIX

DJ Euro Stoxx

1409.6

7.2

FTSE 100

5771.1

-5.1

S&P 500

1349.6

-1.9

* Positive percent change denotes appreciation of U.S. dollar.  Return to table

Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar
A line chart shows three series, "Major Currencies Index", "Euro", and "Yen" from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is January 5, 2004 = 100.

The "Major currencies index" series begins at about 100 on January 5, 2004, increases to about 108 in 2004:Q2, decreases to about 95 in 2004:Q4 and generally
increases to about 103 in 2005:Q4. It then generally decreases to end at about 85 in 2008:Q2.

The "Euro" series begins at about 100 on January 5, 2004, increases to about 107 in 2004:Q2, decreases to about 94 in 2004:Q4 and generally increases to about
108 in 2005:Q4. It then generally decreases to end at about 82 in 2008:Q2.

The "Yen" series begins at about 100 on January 5, 2004, increases to about 107 in 2004:Q2, decreases to about 97 in 2004:Q4 and generally increases to about
114 in 2005:Q4 and about 116 in 2007:Q2. It then generally decreases to about 92.5 and increases to end at about 100.5 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar
A line chart shows three series, "Major Currencies Index", "Euro", and "Yen" from February 2008 through April 2008. Data is daily; unit April 23, 2008 = 100. The
April 2008, Greenbook is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Major currencies index" series begins at about 103 in February 2008, generally increases to about 104 shortly after, and then generally decreases to about 98
in March. The series is at about 100 on April 23, 2008, Greenbook. It then fluctuates between about 98 and 102.5 and decreases to end at about 102 in June
2008.

The "Euro" series begins at about 107 in February 2008, generally increases to about 109.5 shortly after, and then generally decreases to about 100 on April 23,
2008, Greenbook. It then fluctuates between about 101 and 103 through May, and decreases to end at about 102.5 in June 2008.

The "Yen" series begins at about 102.5 in February 2008, generally increases to about 104 shortly after, and then generally decreases to about 93 in March. The
series increases to about 100 on April 23, 2008, Greenbook. It then fluctuates between about 99 and 102 through May, and decreases to end at about 104 in June
2008.

Figure: Stock Market Indexes
A line chart shows three series, "DJ Euro Stoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P 500" from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is January 5, 2004 = 100.

The "DJ Euro Stoxx" series begins at about 100 on January 5, 2004, decreases to about 93 in 2004:Q3, it generally increases to about 147 in 2006:Q2, and
decreases to about 130 by the end of Q2. It then generally increases again to peak at about 175 in 2007:Q3, and then generally decreases to end at about 139.5
in 2008:Q2.

The "TOPIX" series begins at about 100 on January 5, 2004, increases to about 117 in 2004:Q2, decreases to about 101 in 2004:Q4 it generally increases to about
166 in 2006:Q2 and decreases to about 140 in 2006:Q2. It then increases to about 170 by mid-2007and generally decreases to end at about 130 in 2008:Q2.

The "S&P 500" series begins at about 100 on January 5, 2004, generally increases to about 140 in 2007:Q4, then decreases and ends at about 121 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Stock Market Indexes
A line chart shows three series, "DJ Euro Stoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P500" from February 2008 through April 2008. Data is daily; unit is April 23, 2008 = 100. The
April 2008, Greenbook is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "DJ Euro Stoxx" series begins at about 102 in February 2008, fluctuates between about 96 and 102 through February, generally decreases to about 90 by
mid-march, and generally increases to about 100 on April 23, 2008 Greenbook. It increases to about 103 in May, and generally decreases to end at about 94 in
June 2008.

The "TOPIX" series begins at about 102 in February 2008, fluctuates between about 97 and 104 through February, generally decreases to about 87 by mid-march,
and generally increases to about 100 on April 23, 2008 Greenbook. It generally increases to about 108 in June, and ends at about 107.5 in late June 2008.

The "S&P500" series begins at about 102 in February 2008, fluctuates between about 96 and 101 through February, generally decreases to about 87 by midmarch, and generally increases to about 100 on April 23, 2008 Greenbook. It generally increases to about 103 in May, and generally decreases to end at about 98
in June 2008.

Industrial Countries: Nominal and Real Interest Rates
Percent

3-month LIBOR

10-year nominal

Change since
April Greenbook

Latest

10-year indexed

Change since
April Greenbook

Latest

Change since
April Greenbook

Latest

Germany

4.96

0.13

4.60

0.46

2.20

0.41

Japan

0.92

0.01

1.78

0.34

1.30

0.09

United Kingdom

5.95

0.06

5.17

0.50

1.31

-0.01

Canada

3.45

-0.10

3.84

0.19

…

…

United States

2.80

-0.12

4.23

0.49

1.80

0.34

Figure: Nominal 10-Year Government Bond Yields
A line chart shows three series, "Germany", "Japan (left axis)", and "United States" from 2004 through 2008:Q2. The right axis ranges from 3 to 6 and the left scale
ranges from 0 to 3. Data is weekly; unit is percent.

The "Germany" series begins at about 4.25 percent in January 2004, decreases to about 3.9 in 2004:Q1, increases to about 4.4 in 2004:Q2 and generally
decreases to about 3 in 2005:Q3. It then generally increases to about 4.1 by mid-2006 and 4.6 by mid-2007, generally decreases to about 3.75 in 2008:Q1 and
increases to end at about 4.5 in 2008:Q2.

The "Japan" series begins at about 1.4 percent in January 2004, generally increases to about 1.8 in 2004:Q2, it generally decreases to about 1.2 by mid-2005 and
generally decreases to about 1.9 by mid-2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.75 in 2008:Q2.

The "United States" series begins at about 4.3 percent in January 2004, increases to about 4.7 in 2004:Q2, fluctuates between about 4 and 4.5 through 2005, and
generally increases to about 5.3 by mid-2006. It then decreases to about 4.5 in 2006:Q4, increases to about 5.2 in 2007:Q2, generally decreases to about 3.5 and
increases to end at about 4.2 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Nominal 10-Year Government Bond Yields
A line chart shows three series, "Germany", "Japan (left axis)", and "United States" from February 2008 through June 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent, The April
2008, Greenbook is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Germany" series begins at about 3.9 percent in February 2008, generally increases to about 4.2 in late February, generally decreases to about 3.6 by midMarch, and generally increases to about 4.3 by April 2008, Greenbook. It then decreases to about 4 in May and generally increases to end at about 4.6 in June
2008.

The "Japan" series begins at about 1.4 percent in February 2008, generally decreases to about 1.25 in March and generally increases to about 1.4 by April 2008,
Greenbook. It then generally increases to end at about 1.8 in June 2008.

The "United States" series begins at about 3.5 percent in February 2008, generally increases to about 3.9 in late February, generally decreases to about 3.3 by
mid-March, and generally increases to about 3.7 by April 2008, Greenbook. It then generally increases to end at about 4.2 in June 2008.

Figure: Inflation-Indexed 10-Year Government Bond Yields
A line chart shows three series, "France", "Japan"*, and "United States" from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is percent.

The "France" series begins at about 2 in January 2004, decreases to about 1.5 in late 2004:Q1, increases to about 1.8 in 2004:Q2 and generally decreases to
about 1 in 2005:Q3. It then generally increases to about 2.4 by mid-2007, generally decreases to about 1.3 in 2008:Q1 and ends at about 2.1 in 2008:Q2.

The "Japan" series begins at about 1.2 in 2004:Q2, generally decreases to about 0.4 by 2005:Q2 and generally increases to end at about 1.3 in 2008:Q2.

The "United States" series begins at about 2 in January 2004, decreases to about 1.4 in late 2004:Q1, increases to about 2.3 in 2004:Q2, and generally decreases
to about 1.5 in 2005:Q1. It then generally increases to about 2.6 by mid-2006 and about 2.7 by mid-2007, generally decreases to about 1.2 and increases to end at
about 1.7 in 2008:Q2.
* Japan first issued inflation-indexed debt in March 2004.  Return to text

Figure: Inflation-Indexed 10-Year Government Bond Yields
A line chart shows three series, "France", "Japan", and "United States" from February 2008 through June 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent. The April 2008,
Greenbook is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "France" series begins at about 1.7 in February 2008, generally decreases to about 1.3 in March, generally increases to about 1.75 by April 2008, Greenbook,
and generally decreases to about 1.6 in May 2008. It then generally increases and ends at about 2.2 in June 2008.

The "Japan" series begins at about 1.1 in February 2008, generally increases to about 1.2 by April 2008, Greenbook, and generally increases to end at about 1.3
in June 2008.

The "United States" series begins at about 1.3 in February, 2008, increases to about 1.6 by mid-February, generally decreases to about 1.1 in March 2008, and
generally increases to about 1.5 in by April, 2008, Greenbook. It then generally decreases to about 1.4 in May 2008 and generally increases to end at about 1.8 in
June 2008.

Measures of Market Volatility
Figure: Dollar-Euro Options-Implied Volatility*
A line chart shows two series, "1-month" and 3-month" from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is percent. The two series track fairly closely throughout
the period.

The 1-month series begins at about 11 in 2004, increases to about 12 shortly after, and generally decreases to about 4.3 by mid-2007. It then increases to about
12.1 in 2008:Q1 and decreases to end at about 9.5 in 2008:Q2.

The 3-month series begins at about 11 in 2004, it increases to about 11.5 in 2004:Q2, and generally decreases to about 4.4 by mid-2007. It then increases to
about 11.5 in 2008:Q1 and decreases to end at about 9.6 in 2008:Q2.
* Derived from at-the-money options.  Return to text

Figure: Dollar-Euro Options-Implied Volatility*
A line chart shows two series, "1-month" and 3-month" from February 2008 through June 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent. The April 2008, Greenbook is marked
with a vertical tripwire. Both series track fairly closely throughout the period.

The 1-month series begins at about 8.9 in February 2008, increases to about 10 shortly after, generally decreases to about 8.3 in late February 2008, and
generally increases to about 12.8 by mid-March. It then generally decreases to about 11 around the time of April 2008, Greenbook, generally decreases to about 9
by late May, increases to about 10.8 in June and ends at about 9.8 in late June 2008.

The 3-month series begins at about 8.7 in February 2008, increases to about 9.8 shortly after, generally decreases to about 8.5 in late February 2008, and

generally increases to about 11.7 by mid-March. It then generally decreases to about 10.5 around the time of April 2008, Greenbook, generally decreases to about
9.5 by late May, increases to about 10.8 in June and ends at about 10 in late June 2008.
* Derived from at-the-money options.  Return to text

Figure: Yen-Dollar Options-Implied Volatility*
A line chart shows two series, "1-month" and 3-month" from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is percent. The two series track fairly closely throughout
the period.

The 1-month series begins at about 9 in 2004, it increases to about 12 in 2004:Q2, and generally decreases to about 6 by mid-2007. It then increases and
fluctuates between about 7.5 and 18, and decreases to end at about 12 in 2008:Q2.

The 3-month series begins at about 9 in 2004, it increases to about 10.5 in 2004:Q2, and generally decreases to about 6 by mid-2007. It then increases and
fluctuates between about 7.75 and 15.75, and decreases to end at about 11 in 2008:Q2.
* Derived from at-the-money options.  Return to text

Figure: Yen-Dollar Options-Implied Volatility*
A line chart shows two series, "1-month" and 3-month" from February 2008 through June 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent. The April 2008, Greenbook is marked
with a vertical tripwire.

The 1-month series begins at about 12.1 in February 2008, generally decreases to about 10.5 by late February 2008 and generally increases to about 21 by midMarch. The series generally decreases to about 13.5 around the time of April 2008, Greenbook. It then generally decreases to about 10.5, in early May, and ends
at about 10 in June 2008.

The 3-month series begins at about 11.5 in February 2008, generally decreases to about 10 by late February 2008 and generally increases to about 17.5 by midMarch. The series generally decreases to about 12.5 around the time of April 2008, Greenbook. It then generally decreases to about 10.5, in early May, and ends
at about 10 in June 2008.
* Derived from at-the-money options.  Return to text

Figure: Realized Stock Market Volatility*
A line chart shows three series, "DJ Euro Stoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P 500" from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is percent.

The "DJ Euro Stoxx" series begins at about 12 percent in 2004, increases to about 17 in 2004:Q2, decreases to about 7 in 2005:Q1, increases to about 21 in
2006:Q3, and decreases to about 10 in 2006:Q4. It then fluctuates and generally increases to about 32 by 2008:Q1, and decreases to end at about 16 in 2008:Q2.

The "TOPIX" series begins at about 24 percent in 2004, decreases to about 14 in early 2004:Q2, and increases to about 23 by 2004:Q3. It then decreases to
about 9 in 2005:Q1, generally increases to about 25 in 2006:Q3, and decreases to about 11 in 2007:Q1 and Q2. The series fluctuates and generally increases to
about 37.5 by 2008:Q1, and decreases to end at about 25 in 2008:Q2.

The "S&P 500" series begins at about 10.5 in 2004, fluctuates between about 7 and 13 through mid-2007, then generally increases to about 25 by 2008:Q1, and
decreases to end at about 18 in 2008:Q2.
* Annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns.  Return to text

Figure: Realized Stock Market Volatility*
A line chart shows three series, "DJ Euro Stoxx", "TOPIX", and "S&P 500" from February 2008 through June 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent.

The "DJ Euro Stoxx" series begins at about 27.5 percent in February 2008, generally increases to about 32 by mid-April and generally decreases to about 24,
around the time of April 2008 Greenbook. It then generally decreases to end at about 15 in June, 2008.

The "TOPIX" series begins at about 32 percent in February 2008, generally increases to about 38 by March 2008, and generally decreases to about 32, around the
time of April 2008 Greenbook. It then generally decreases to end at about 25 in June, 2008.

The "S&P 500" series begins at about 22.5 percent in February 2008, generally decreases to about 21 in March 2008, and generally increases to about 25 by late
March. It then generally decreases to about 24, around the time of April 2008 Greenbook, and generally decreases to end at about 16 in June, 2008.

* Annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns.  Return to text

Figure: Realized 10-Year Bond Volatility*
A line chart shows three series, "Germany", "Japan", and "U.S." from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is percent.

The "Germany" series begins at about 4.9 percent in 2004, fluctuates between about 2.5 and 5.1 through 2007 and increases to end at about 6.25 in 2008:Q2.

The "Japan" series begins at about 5.1 percent in 2004, fluctuates between about 2.5 and 5.5 through 2007 and ends at about 6.23 in 2008:Q2.

The "U.S." series begins at about 8 percent in 2004, generally decreases to about 4 in 2007:Q2 and then generally increases to end at about 8.5 in 2008:Q2.
* Annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns.  Return to text

Figure: Realized 10-Year Bond Volatility*
A line chart shows three series, "Germany", "Japan", and "U.S." from February 2008 through June 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent. The April 2008, Greenbook
is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Germany" series begins at about 5.5 percent in February 2008, generally increases to about 6.5 in April, and decreases to about 6 around the time of April
2008, Greenbook, and ends at about the same in June 2008.

The "Japan" series begins at about 5 percent in February 2008, stays about the same through early April, decreases to about 4 around the time of April 2008,
Greenbook. It then generally increases to end at about 6 in June 2008.

The "U.S." series begins at about 10.5 percent in February 2008, generally increases to about 11.5 in mid-April and decreases to about 11, around the time of
April 2008, Greenbook. It then generally decreases to end at about 8.5 in June 2008.
* Annualized standard deviation of 60-day window of daily returns.  Return to text

Emerging Markets: Exchange Rates and Stock Market Indexes
Exchange value of the dollar

Stock market index

Percent change since
Latest

Percent change since
Latest

April Greenbook*
Mexico

April Greenbook

10.2886

-1.9

29925

1.6138

-2.6

68144

4.2

2.14

-0.1

36664

-3.3

China

6.8821

-1.5

2941

-10.3

Hong Kong

7.8055

0.1

23326

-7.8

Korea

1030.5

4.0

1774

-1.5

Taiwan

30.37

0.3

8218

-8.8

1.3697

1.3

940

0.0

33.28

5.8

766

-8.6

Brazil
Venezuela

Singapore
Thailand

-6.6

* Positive percent change denotes appreciation of U.S. dollar.  Return to table

Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar
A line chart shows four series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "China" from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is January 5, 2004 = 100.

The "Mexico" series begins at about 99 in 2004, increases to about 105 in 2004:Q2, it generally decreases to about 95 in 2006:Q1, and increases to about 104 by
mid-2006. It then decreases to about 99 in 2006:Q3 and fluctuates between about 96 and 101 through 2007 and decreases to end at about 94 in 2008:Q2.

The "Brazil" series begins at about 99 in 2004, increases to about 110 in 2004:Q2, it generally decreases to about 73 in 2006:Q2, and increases to about 80 in
mid-Q2. It then generally decreases to end at about 56 in 2008:Q2.

The "Korea" series begins at about 99 in 2004, it generally decreases to about 84 in 2005:Q1, increases to about 88 in 2005:Q4, generally decreases to about 76
in 2007:Q4, increases to about 85 in 2008:Q1 and ends at about 86 in 2008:Q2.

The "China" series begins at about 100 in 2004, stays about the same through mid-2005 and then generally decreases to end at about 84 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Exchange Value of the Dollar
A line chart shows four series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "China" from February 2008 through June 2008. Data is daily; unit is April 23, 2008 = 100. The April
2008, Greenbook is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Mexico" series begins at about 102.5 in February 2008, fluctuates between about 102 and 103 through March 2008, and generally decreases to about 100
around the time of April, 2008, Greenbook and generally decreases to end at about 98 in June 2008.

The "Brazil" series begins at about 105.25 in February 2008, generally decreases to about 100.5 in March and generally increases to about 105.25 in April. The
series generally decreases to about 100 around the time of April, 2008, Greenbook, fluctuates and generally decreases to end at about 97.5 in June 2008.

The "Korea" series begins at about 95.5 in February 2008, generally increases to about 102.5 by mid-March 2008, generally decreases to about 98 in April 2008
and increases to about 100 around the April, 2008, Greenbook. It then increases to about 106, in May, decreases to about 102.5 in early June, and ends at about
104 in June 2008.

The "China" series begins at about 102.5 in February 2008, generally decreases to about 100 by April, 2008, Greenbook. It then generally decreases and ends at
about 98 in June 2008.

Figure: Stock Market Indexes
A line chart shows four series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "Hong Kong" from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is January 5, 2004 = 100.

The "Mexico" series begins at about 100 in 2004, generally increases to about 370 by 2007:Q4, decreases to about 300 in 2008:Q1 and then increases to end at
about 350 in 2008:Q2.

The "Brazil" series begins at about 100 in 2004, decreases to about 75 in 2004:Q2, it generally increases to about 280 by 2007:Q4 and 2008:Q1, and then ends at
about 300 in 2008:Q2.

The "Korea" series begins at about 100 in 2004, generally increases to about 250 by 2007:Q4, decreases to about 200 in 2008:Q1 and then increases to end at
about 220 in 2008:Q2.

The "Hong Kong" series begins at about 100 in 2004, generally increases to about 240 by 2007:Q4, decreases to about 175 in 2008:Q1 and then ends at about
190 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Stock Market Indexes
A line chart shows four series, "Mexico", "Brazil", "Korea", and "Hong Kong" from February 2008 through June 2008. Data is daily; unit is April 23, 2008 = 100.

The "Mexico" series begins at about 91 in February 2008, generally decreases to about 87 in February 2008, fluctuates and generally increases to about 100 by
April, 2008, Greenbook. It then decreases to about 95 briefly after the meeting, increases to about 100 by late May and decreases to end at about 94 in June 2008.

The "Brazil" series begins at about 94 in February 2008, generally decreases to about 90 shortly after, generally increases to about 100 in late February, and
generally decreases to about 90 by March 2008. It then generally increases to about 100 by April, 2008, Greenbook. It then generally increases to about 112.5 in
May 2008, and then generally decreases to end at about 105 in June 2008.

The "Korea" series begins at about 91 in February 2008, generally increases to about 96 in February 2008, generally decreases to about 87.5 by mid-March, 2008
and generally increases to about 100 by April, 2008, Greenbook. It increases to about 105 briefly after the meeting, generally decreases to about 97.5 in June and
then increases to end at about 98 in June 2008.

The "Hong Kong" series begins at about 95 in February 2008, generally decreases to about 94 by mid-March, and generally increases to about 100 by April, 2008,

Greenbook. It then increases to about 104 briefly after the meeting, decreases to about 89 in June and then increases to end at about 92 in June 2008.

Emerging Markets: Short-Term Interest Rates and Dollar-Denominated Bond Spreads
Percent

Short-term interest rates*
Change since
April Greenbook

Latest
Mexico

Dollar-denominated bond spreads**
Change since
April Greenbook

Latest

7.34

0.00

1.27

-0.17

Brazil

12.10

0.23

1.86

-0.45

Argentina

15.56

5.69

5.63

-0.08

…

…

1.32

-0.26

China
Korea

5.10

0.66

…

…

Taiwan

2.54

-0.04

…

…

Singapore

3.50

0.00

…

…

Hong Kong

1.91

0.25

…

…

* One month interest rate except 1-week rate for Korea. No reliable short-term interest rate exists for China.  Return to table
** EMBI+ or EMBI Global Spreads over similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries.  Return to table
… Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong have no outstanding dollar-denominated sovereign bonds.  Return to table

Figure: EMBI+ Spreads
A line chart shows three series, "Overall", "Mexico", and "Brazil", from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is percent.

The "Overall" series begins at about 3.9 percent in 2004, increases to about 5.5 in 2004:Q2, it generally decreases to about 1.5 by 2007:Q2 and generally
increases to about 3 in 2008:Q1 and then decreases to end at about 2.5 in 2008:Q2.

The "Mexico" series begins at about 1.9 percent in 2004, stays generally the same through 2005:Q2, it generally decreases to about 0.75 in 2007:Q2, and
generally increases to about 1.8 in 2008:Q1, and then decreases to end at about 1.3 in 2008:Q2.

The "Brazil" series begins at about 4.2 in 2004:Q1, increases to about 7.6 in 2004:Q2, it generally decreases to about 1.4 in 2007:Q2, and generally increases to
about 2.8 in 2008:Q1, and then decreases to end at about 1.9 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: EMBI+ Spreads
A line chart shows three series, "Overall", "Mexico", and "Brazil", from February 2008 through June 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent. The April 2008, Greenbook
is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "Overall" series begins at about 2.75 percent in February 2008, generally increases to about 2.25 by mid-March 2008, generally decreases to about 2.6,
around the time of April 2008, Greenbook. It then generally decreases to end at about 2.4 in June 2008.

The "Mexico" series begins at about 1.8 percent in February 2008, decreases to about 1.5 in late February, generally increases to about 1.8 mid-March 2008,and
then generally decreases to about 1.4 around the time of April 2008, Greenbook. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.25 in June 2008.

The "Brazil" series begins at about 2.5 in February 2008, decreases to about 2.25 in late February 2008, it generally increases to about 3 by mid-March 2008, and
generally decreases to about 2.25, around the time of March 2008, Greenbook. It then generally decreases to end at about 1.8 in June 2008.

Figure: EMBI Global Spreads
A line chart shows three series, "China", "Malaysia", and "Indonesia"*, from 2004 through 2008:Q2. Data is weekly; unit is percent.

The "China" series begins at about 0.5 in 2004, fluctuates between about 0.4 and 0.75 through 2007:Q2, then generally increases to about 1.6 in 2008:Q1, and
decreases to end at about 1.25 in 2008:Q2.

The "Malaysia" series begins at about 1 in 2004, increases to about 1.4 in 2004:Q2, it decreases to about 0.8 in 2004:Q4, and fluctuates between about 0.6 and 1
through 2007:Q2. It then generally increases to about 1.5 in 2008:Q1, and decreases to end at about 1.4 in 2008:Q2.

The "Indonesia" series begins at about 4.3 in 2004:Q2, generally decreases to about 1.8 in 2005:Q1, increases to about 3.3 by 2005:Q3, and generally decreases
to about 1.4 in 2007:Q2. It then generally increases to end at about 3.2 in 2008:Q2.
* Begins May 2004  Return to text

Figure: EMBI Global Spreads
A line chart shows three series, "China", "Malaysia", and "Indonesia", from February 2008 through June 2008. Data is daily; unit is percent. The April 2008,
Greenbook is marked with a vertical tripwire.

The "China" series begins at about 1.25 in February 2008, fluctuates between about 1.1 and 1.7 through mid-April, and it is at about 1.5 around the time of April
2008, Greenbook. It then generally decreases to about 1 in May, generally increases to about 1.5 in June and ends at about 1.3 in June 2008.

The "Malaysia" series begins at about 1.25 in February 2008, generally increases to about 1.5 in March 2008, and generally decreases to about 1.3 around the
time of April 2008, Greenbook. It then generally fluctuates between about 1.1 and 1.5 through May 2008 and ends at about 1.4 in June 2008.

The "Indonesia" series begins at about 3.2 percent in February 2008, fluctuates between about 2.9 and 3.4 through mid-April, and it is at about 3.25 around the
time of April 2008, Greenbook. It then fluctuates between about 3.1 and 3.4 through May 2008, and ends at about 3.3 in June 2008.

Advanced Foreign Economies
Figure: Average Real GDP*
A line chart shows a single series from 1998 through 2008. Data is quarterly; unit is annualized percent change, s.a.

The series begins at about 2.5 percent in 1998, decreases to about 1, shortly after in Q2, generally increases to about 5.5 by late 1999 and generally decreases to
about -0.5 in 2001. It then fluctuates between about 0.5 and 4 through mid-2007 and ends at about 1.5 in late 2008:Q1.
* Chain weighted by moving bilateral shares in U.S. merchandise exports.  Return to text

Figure: Consumer Prices
A line chart shows four series, "Japan", "Euro Area", "Canada", and "United Kingdom" from 1998 through 2008:Q2. Data is monthly; unit is 12-month percent
change, s.a.

The "Japan" series begins at about 1.8 in 1998, increases to about 2.5, shortly after, decreases to about -0.5 in 1998:Q3, fluctuates between about -1.5 and 1
through 2007 and ends at about 0.75 in 2008:Q2.

The "Euro Area" series begins at about 1.1 in 1998, decreases to about 0.8 in late 1998, generally increases to about 3 in 2001, fluctuates between about 1.5 and
2.5 through late 2007, and then increases to end at about 3.5 in 2008:Q2.

The "Canada" series begins at about 1.2 in 1998, increases to about 3.9 in 2001, decreases to about 0.6 in late 2001, increases to about 4.5 in early 2003, and
decreases to about 0.6 in early 2004. It then fluctuates between about 0.6 and 3.3 through 2007 and ends at about 1.6 in 2008:Q2.

The "United Kingdom" series begins at about 1.5 in 1998, generally decreases to about 0.5 in 2000, fluctuates and generally increases to about 3 in early 2007,
and ends at about 3.25 in 2008.

Figure: Official or Targeted Interest Rates
A line chart shows four series, "Japan", "Euro Area", "Canada", and "United Kingdom" from 1998 through 2008.Unit is percent.

The "Japan" series begins at about 0.2 percent in 1998, decreases to about 0.1 in 1999, decreases again to about 0 in 2000, increases to about 0.2 in late 2000,
and decreases to about 0 in early 2001. The series stays at about 0 through mid-2006, and then increases to about 0.2 until early 2007. It then increases to about
0.3 in 2007 and ends at about the same in 2008:Q2.

The "Euro Area" series begins at about 3 in 1999, decreases to about 2.5 in 1999:Q2, generally increases to about 4.9 in late 2000, decreases to about 3.1 by late
2001 and about 2 by mid-2003. It stays about the same through 2005, generally increases to about 4 by mid-2007 and ends at about the same in 2008:Q2.

The "Canada" series begins at about 4.2 in 1998, increases to about 5.8 in late 1998, decreases to about 4.5 in 1999, increases back to about 5.8 in 2000 and
generally decreases to about 2 in 2002. It then increases to about 3.2 in 2003, decreases to about 2 in 2004, and generally increases to about 4.2 in 2006. The
series stays about the same through 2007 and decreases to end at about 3 in 2008:Q2.

The "United Kingdom" series begins at about 7.2 in 1998, increases to about 7.5 shortly after, generally decreases to about 5 in 1999, increases to about 6 in early
2000, and generally decreases to about 4 in late 2001. The series stays about the same through early 2003, increases to about 4.4 in 2004, decreases to about
4.2 from mid-2005 through mid-2006, and generally increases to about 5.8 in late 2007. It then decreases to end at about 5 in 2008:Q2.

Canadian Real GDP
(Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.a.r.)

Component

2007

2006 1 2007 1
Q2

Q3

2008
Q4

Q1

GDP

2.2

2.8

3.9

2.3

0.8

-0.3

Total domestic demand

3.7

6.3

4.8

9.7

6.2

-2.6

Consumption

4.6

5.3

5.8

4.2

7.5

3.2

Investment

4.6

4.2

4.9

5.6

3.8

-0.0

Government consumption

3.7

4.6

2.7

7.2

5.8

2.6

Inventories2

-0.7

1.5

-0.1

4.6

0.0

-5.2

Exports

-1.0

-1.4

2.5

-1.1

-7.4

-4.1

Imports

3.0

8.6

4.9

20.6

8.6

-10.0

-1.7

-4.2

-1.1

-8.6

-6.6

3.1

Net Exports2
1. Q4/Q4  Return to table

2. Percentage point contribution to GDP growth.  Return to table

Canada
Figure: Real GDP by Industry*
A line chart shows a single series from 1998 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent change from year earlier.

The series begins at about 2.5 in 1998, it generally increases to about 6.7 in 1999, decreases to about 0.2 in 2001, fluctuates between about 1and 4.5 through
2007 and decreases to end at about 0.7 in 2008:Q1.
* Constructed from various Statistics Canada surveys and supplements the quarterly income and expenditure-based estimates.  Return to text

Figure: Real Trade
A line chart shows two series, "Real exports", and "Real imports" from 1998:Q4 through 2008:Q1. Unit is 1997= 100.

The "Real exports" series begins at about 105 in 1998:Q4, generally increases to about 135 in 2000, fluctuates between about 120 and 145 through 2007 and
ends at about 130 in 2008:Q1.

The "Real imports" series begins at about 101 in 1998:Q1, increases to about 127 in 2000, decreases to about 113 in late 2001 and then generally increases to
end at about 163 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Unemployment Rate
A line chart shows a single series from 1998:Q4 through 2008:Q2. Unit is percent.

The series begins at about 8.25 in 1998:Q1, it generally decreases to about 6.7 in 2000, generally increases to about 8.0 in early 2002, and decreases to about
7.3 in early 2003. It then increases to about 7.9 in mid-2003 and then generally decreases to end at about 6.1 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Consumer Price Inflation
A line chart shows two series "CPI" and "Core"*, from 1998:Q4 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a.

The "CPI" series begins at about 1 in 1998, decreases to about 0.5 in by late 1998 and early 2001, generally increases to about 4 in 2001, and fluctuates between
about 0.5 and 4.75 through 2007. The series then decreases to end at about 1.7 in 2008:Q2.

The "Core" series begins at about 1.3 in 1998:Q1, it increases to about 1.9 in 1999, about 2.5 in 2001 and 3.3 in 2003. The series then generally decreases to
about 1.2 in early 2004, generally increases to about 2.5 in 2007, and decreases to end at about 1.4 in early 2008:Q2.
* Excludes 8 most volatile components and the effect s of changes in indirect taxes.  Return to text

Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.)

2007

2008

2008

Indicator
Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

Industrial production

Q3
-0.4

-1.3

-2.1

-0.8

-1.4

n.a.

n.a.

New manufacturing orders

-1.8

-0.5

-4.1

-0.7

3.7

-3.0

n.a.

Retail sales

0.0

1.8

1.2

-0.7

0.5

n.a.

n.a.

Employment

0.4

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.0

100.7

97.3

93.4

…

…

…

…

101.6 101.0

96.4

…

…

…

…

Consumer attitudes 1
Business confidence

1

Q4

Q1

May

1. 2002=100.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

Euro-Area Real GDP
(Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.a.r.)

Component

2007

2006 1 2007 1
Q2

Q3

2008
Q4

Q1

GDP

3.3

2.1

1.5

2.7

1.3

3.2

Total domestic demand

2.4

1.9

0.3

2.8

0.2

3.1

Consumption

2.1

1.2

2.5

1.8

-0.2

0.6

Investment

5.9

3.2

-0.0

3.8

4.1

6.6

Government consumption

2.4

2.0

1.1

3.3

-0.1

1.5

-0.5

0.1

-1.2

0.3

-0.5

0.9

Exports

8.9

4.4

3.7

9.3

1.2

7.8

Imports

6.9

4.0

1.0

9.9

-1.1

7.6

Net Exports2

0.9

0.2

1.2

-0.1

1.0

0.2

Inventories2

Memo: GDP of selected countries
France

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.8

1.4

2.6

Germany

3.9

1.7

0.7

2.7

1.1

6.3

Italy

2.5

0.1

0.0

0.9

-1.6

1.9

1. Q4/Q4  Return to table
2. Percentage point contribution to GDP growth.  Return to table

Euro Area
Figure: Nominal Exports and Imports
A line chart shows two series, "Exports", and "Imports" from 1998 through 2008. Unit is billions of U.S. dollars. The two series track fairly closely throughout the
period.

The Exports series begins at about $70 billion in 1998, and generally increases to end at about 220 in 2008:Q2.

The Imports series begins at about $65 billion in 1998, increases to about 82 in early 2001, decreases to about 70 in early 2002, and then generally increases to
end at about 220 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Economic Sentiment
A line chart shows two series, "Consumer confidence", and "Industrial confidence" from mid-1998 through 2008. Unit is percent balance.

The "Consumer confidence" series begins at about -4 in mid-1998, increases to about -1 in early 1999, decreases to about -6 by 1999:Q2, and generally increases
to about 2.5 in 2005 and early 2006. It then generally decreases to about -12.5 in late 2001, and about -21 in early 2003. The series increases to about -1 in
2007:Q1, and decreases to end at about -14.9 in 2008:Q2.

The "Industrial confidence" series begins at about 1 in mid-1998, decreases to about -12 in early 1999, increases to about 6 by 2000:Q2, and generally decreases
to about -17.5 in late 2001. It then generally increases to about -2.5 in late 2004, decreases to about -10 in early 2005, and increases to about 7 in early 2007.
The series then decreases and ends at about -2.5 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Unemployment Rate
A line chart shows the unemployment rate from mid-1998 through early 2008. Unit is percent.

The series begins at about 10.0 in mid-1998, generally decreases to about 7.8 by 2001, generally increases to about 9.0 in early 2005 and then generally
decreases to end at about 7.1 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Consumer Price Inflation
A line chart shows two series, "CPI", and "Core"*, from mid-1998 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a.

The "CPI" series begins at about 1.25 percent in mid-1998, decreases to about 0.75 by late 1998, generally increases to about 3.25 by mid-2001, and decreases to
about 2.0 in late 2001. It fluctuates between about 1.5 and 2.7 through 2007 and increases to end at about 3.2 in 2008:Q2.

The "Core" series begins at about 1.5 percent in mid-1998, decreases to about 0.9 in 1999, increases to about 2.7 in early 2002, and generally decreases to about
1.25 by mid-2005. It then increases and ends at about 2.4 in early 2008:Q2.
* Excludes energy and unprocessed food.  Return to text

Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.)

2007

2008

2008

Indicator
Q3
1

Q4

Q1

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

1.5

0.2

0.7

0.8

0.3

-0.5

0.9

2

0.3

-0.9

0.0

0.6

-0.2

-0.9

-0.7

New car registrations

0.5

0.7

-2.6

-4.4

5.1

-8.7

8.0

Employment

0.4

0.2

n.a.

…

…

…

…

Producer prices 3

2.1

4.0

5.4

5.0

5.4

5.8

6.1

11.3

11.5

10.1

11.6

11.3

10.1

10.6

Industrial production
Retail sales volume

M3

3

1. Excludes construction.  Return to table
2. Excludes motor vehicles.  Return to table

3. Eurostat harmonized definition. Percent change from year earlier, s.a.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

Japanese Real GDP
(Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.a.r.)

Component

2007

2006 1 2007 1
Q2

Q3

2008
Q4

Q1

GDP

2.5

1.4

-2.5

0.9

2.9

4.0

Total domestic demand

1.9

0.1

-3.0

-1.0

1.7

2.0

Consumption

1.7

1.2

0.7

0.2

1.5

3.3

Private investment

5.8

-3.8

-11.0

-2.7

-1.7

3.2

Public investment

-9.9

-1.4

-14.1

-5.4

2.3

5.5

Government consumption

0.1

1.4

0.7

0.4

3.4

-1.7

Inventories2

0.3

0.0

-0.6

-0.3

0.5

-0.5

Exports

6.5

10.3

5.1

11.9

10.8

17.1

Imports

2.7

2.3

2.6

-0.2

3.9

5.6

Net Exports2

0.6

1.3

0.5

1.8

1.2

2.0

1. Q4/Q4  Return to table
2. Percentage point contribution to GDP growth.  Return to table

Japan
Figure: Economic Activity
A line chart shows two series, "Industrial production", and "Tertiary services", from 1998 through 2008:Q1. Unit is 2000=100.

The "Industrial production" series begins at about 93 in 1998, increases to about 102.5 in late 2001, decreases to about 86.5 in late 2001, and then generally
increases to end at about 106 in 2008:Q1.

The "Tertiary services" series begins at about 98 and then generally increases to end at about 110.1 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Real Trade
A line chart shows two series, "Real exports", and "Real imports" from 1998 through 2008. Unit is 2000=100.

The "Real exports" series begins at about 67 in 1998, generally increases to about 82 by mid-2000, decreases to about 67 in late 2001, and then generally
increases to end at about 126 in early 2008.

The "Real imports" series begins at about 75 in 1998, generally increases to about 90 in late 2000, generally decreases to about 82 by late 2001, and then
generally increases to end at about 113 in early 2008.

Figure: Labor Market
A line chart shows two series, "Unemployment rate (right scale)", and "Job openings to applications (left scale)" from 1998 through 2008. The right scale ranges
from 0.4 to 1.2; unit is percent. The left scale ranges from 0.4 to 1.2; unit is ratio.

The "Unemployment rate" begins at about 4.1 percent in 1998, increases to about 4.9 in 2000, decreases to about 4.6 shortly after, and increases to peak at about
5.5 in 2002. The series generally decreases to about 3.51 in 2007, increases to about 4.0 briefly after, and then ends at about 3.99 in 2008.

The "Job openings to applications" series begins at about 0.51 in 1998, decreases to about 0.45 in 1999, increases to about 0.65 in late 2000, and decreases to

about 0.5 in early 2002. It then generally increases to about 1.08 in 2006, and decreases to end at about 0.93 in 2008.

Figure: Consumer Price Inflation
A line chart shows two series, "CPI", and "Core"*, from 1998 through 2008. Unit is percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a.

The "CPI" series begins at about -0.1 percent in 1998, decreases to about -0.3 shortly after, increases to about 0.7 in late 1998, fluctuates and decreases to about
-1.6 in early 2002, and generally increases to about 0.75 in late 2004. It then generally decreases to about -1.0 in late 2005, increases to about 1.0 in 2006,
decreases to about -0.25 in 2007, increases to about 1.3 in early 2008, and decreases to end at about 0.8 in 2008:Q2.

The "Core" series begins at about -0.1 percent in 1998, decreases to about -0.5 shortly after, increases to about 0.01 in 2000, decreases to about -1.01 in 2001,
and generally increases to about 0.01 in late 2003. It generally increases to about 0.25 in 2006, decreases to about -0.25 in 2007, and then increases to end at
about 1.0 in 2008:Q2.
* Excludes fresh food.  Return to text

Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.)

2007

2008

2008

Indicator
Q3
Housing starts

Q4

Q1

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

-35.5
1

18.1

19.6

-3.1

-5.4

May

5.8

n.a.

1.4

0.6

2.2

-12.3

-8.3

5.5

n.a.

-0.5

0.6

0.7

-2.9

-2.2

-0.7

n.a.

New car registrations

1.0

4.3

-1.6

-2.9

-5.0

9.9

-11.1

Business sentiment 2

4.0

2.0

-4.0

…

…

…

…

1.6

2.4

3.5

3.5

3.9

3.9

4.7

Machinery orders

Household expenditures

Wholesale prices

3

1. Private sector, excluding ships and electric power.  Return to table
2. Tankan survey, diffusion index. Level.  Return to table
3. Percent change from year earlier, n.s.a.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

U.K. Real GDP
(Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.a.r.)

Component

2007

2006 1 2007 1
Q2

Q3

2008
Q4

Q1

GDP

3.2

2.8

3.4

2.6

2.5

1.6

Total domestic demand

3.4

3.7

1.9

6.3

1.8

0.6

Consumption

2.8

2.4

2.8

3.1

0.7

5.5

Investment

9.6

4.1

-4.8

8.7

7.4

-6.1

Government consumption

-1.9

4.2

1.4

1.3

2.0

2.4

Inventories2

-0.3

1.2

0.4

2.7

0.4

-2.5

Exports

-1.3

0.6

2.8

5.7

-1.9

0.2

Imports

-0.4

3.1

-2.7

18.2

-3.9

-2.6

Net Exports2

-0.2

-0.8

1.6

-3.6

0.7

0.8

1. Q4/Q4  Return to table
2. Percentage point contribution to GDP growth.  Return to table

United Kingdom

Figure: Consumer Price Inflation
A line chart shows two series, "CPI", and "Core"*, from 1998 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent, 12-month basis, n.s.a.

The "CPI" series begins at about 1.4 percent in 1998, increases to about 1.75 in 1999, decreases to about 0.5 in 2000, and fluctuates between about 0.5 and 1.75
through 2004. It then increases to about 3.2 in 2007, decreases to about 1.75 in late 2007 and increases to end at about 3.3 in 2008:Q2.

The "Core" series begins at about 1.7 in 1998, generally decreases to about 0.05 in 2000, generally increases to about 1.7 in 2002, and decreases to about 0.9 in
2004. It then increases to about 1.8 in 2005, decreases to about 1.1 in 2006, increases to about 2.25 in 2007, decreases to about 1.75 in 2008:Q1 and then
increases to end at about 2.1 in 2008:Q2.
* Excludes energy and unprocessed food.  Return to text

Figure: Unemployment Rates
A line chart shows two series, "Labor force survey", and "Claimant count" from 1998:Q4 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent.

The "Labor force survey" series begins at about 6.3 percent in 1998:Q4, it generally decreases to about 4.8 in 2001, increases to about 5.3 in 2002, and decreases
to about 4.6 in 2004. It then increases to about 5.6 in mid-2006 and generally decreases and ends at about 5.3 in 2008:Q1.

The "Claimant count" series begins at about 4.5 percent in 1998:Q4, it generally decreases to about 2.5 in 2004, increases to about 3 in 2006, and decreases to
end at about 2.5 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Purchasing Managers Survey
A line chart shows two series, "Services", and "Manufacturing" from 1998:Q4 through 2008:Q1. Unit is 50+ = expansion.

The "Services" series begins at about 56 in 1998:Q1, decreases to about 47 in late 1998, increases to about 60 in late 1999, and generally decreases to about 46
in late 2001. It then fluctuates between about 49 and 61 and ends at about 50 in 2008:Q2.

The "Manufacturing" series begins at about 44 in 1998:Q1, increases to about 46 shortly after, decreases to about 41 in late 1998, increases to about 56 in late
1999, and generally decreases to about 46 in late 2001. It then fluctuates between about 47 and 56 and ends at about 50 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Labor Costs
A line chart shows two series, "Unit wage costs"* and "Average earnings"**, from 1998:Q4 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent, 12-month basis.

The "Unit wage costs" series begins at about 4 in 1998:Q4, generally decreases to about -3 in 2000 and about -4 in early 2001. It then generally increases to
about 6 in mid-2002, decreases to about -6 in mid-2003 and generally increases to about 2 in 2005. The series fluctuates between about -2 and 2 through 2007
and decreases to end about 1 in 2008:Q1.

The "Average earnings" series begins at about 5.5 in 1998:Q4, it fluctuates between about 6.1 and 2.75 throughout the period and ends at about 3 in 2008:Q1.
* Manufacturing industries.  Return to text
** Whole economy, including bonuses.  Return to text

Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period except as noted, s.a.)

2007

2008

2008

Indicator
Q3

Consumer confidence
Trade balance

3

Current account

3

2

Feb. Mar.

Apr.

May

19.7

20.0

20.1

24.3

27.9

0.2

-0.2

0.3

-0.4

0.2

n.a.

7.3

12.7

11.0

18.0

0.0

0.0

-2.5

-3.8

-8.6

-8.8

-9.8 -13.2 -14.6

-28.4 -28.6 -25.5

Business confidence 2

Q1

10.7

13.3

Industrial production

Q4

2.7
-0.3

Producer input prices 1

-8.5

-7.5

-8.6

n.a.

…

…

…

…

-38.5 -17.3

n.a.

1. Percent change from year earlier.  Return to table
2. Percent balance.  Return to table
3. Level in billions of US Dollars.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

Chinese Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted)

2007
Indicator

2006

2008

2007
Q4

Real GDP

1

Q1

Mar.

Apr.

May

10.6

Industrial production
Consumer prices

2

3

11.3

10.6

11.7

…

…

…

14.6

18.6

3.3

…

8.1

-2.7

4.5

2.8

Merch. trade balance 4

6.5

6.6

8.0

8.3

8.5

7.7

177.5

261.8

250.1

254.5

242.1

206.5

284.3

1. Annual rate. Quarterly data estimated by staff from reported four-quarter growth rates. Annual data are Q4/Q4.  Return to table
2. China no longer reports a January IP number, which means that period/period changes cannot be computed for Jan. and Feb.  Return to table
3. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec.  Return to table
4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Imports are c.i.f.  Return to table
… Not applicable.

Indian Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted)

2007
Indicator

2006

Q4
Real GDP

1

9.3

Industrial production

7.6

9.1

Mar.
…

Apr.
…

May
…

4

2.2

1.7

.4

1.1

n.a.

5.5

5.5

6.0

6.9

6.9

n.a.

5.7
3

9.9

6.5

Wholesale prices 2

Current account

8.8

Q1

10.5

Consumer prices 2

Merch. trade balance

2008

2007

3.8

3.4

5.8

7.5

7.6

8.1

-53.1

-71.2

-77.3

-95.0 -100.8 -115.0

n.a.

-9.5

-11.8

-21.5

n.a.

…

…

…

1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4.  Return to table
2. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec.  Return to table
3. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate.  Return to table
4. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

China and India
Figure: Industrial Production
A line chart shows two series, "China" and "India", from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is January 2000 = 100.

The China series begins at about 125 in 2002, generally increases, and ends at about 320 in 2008:Q1.

The India series begins at about 110 in 2002, generally increases, and ends at about 179 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Consumer Prices
A line chart shows two series, "China" and "India", from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent change from year earlier.

The China series begins at about -1 in 2002, generally increases to about 5 in 2004, generally decreases to about 1 in late 2005 and 2006, then generally
increases to about 8.5 in 2008:Q1 and ends at about 7.6 in 2008:Q2.

The India series begins at about 5 in 2002, fluctuates and generally decreases to about 2.2 in 2004, fluctuates again and generally increases to about 7.5 in early
2007. It then generally decreases to about 5.5 in 2008:Q1 and ends at about 7 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Merchandise Trade Balance
A line chart shows the 3-month moving average for two series, "China" and "India", from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is billions of dollars.

The China series begins at about 3 in 2002, it fluctuates between about 0.25 and 4 through early 2004, generally increases to about 24 in 2007 and generally
decreases to end at about 20 in 2008:Q2.

The India series begins at about -0.01 in 2002, and generally decreases to end at about -8 in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates
A line chart shows two series, "China" and "India", from 2002 through 2008:Q1 Unit is percent.

The China series begins at about 5.8 in 2008, decreases to about 5.4 shortly after, and stays about the same through late 2004. It then increases to about 5.5 in
2005 and generally increases to end at about 7.5 in 2008:Q2.

The India series begins at about 6.5 in 2002, generally decreases to about 4.5 by late 2003, and stays about the same through late 2004. It then generally
increases to about 6 by mid-2006, and stays about the same to end in 2008:Q2.

Figure: Gross External Debt
A line chart shows gross external debt for India from 2002 through 2007. Unit is percent of GDP.

The series begins at about 22 in early 2002, generally decreases to about 18 in 2004, fluctuates between about 17 and 19.5 through mid-2007 and ends at about
18 in late 2007.

Figure: Short-Term External Debt
A line chart shows short-term external debt for India from 2002 through 2007. Unit is percent of reserves.

The series begins at about 5.1 in early 2002, increases to about 7.5 in 2003, decreases to about 4 in early 2004, generally increases to about 6 in 2007:Q2 and
ends at about 12.5 in 2007:Q3.

NIEs Economic Indicators: Growth
(Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted)

2007
Indicator

Q4
Real GDP

2008

2006 2007
Q1

Feb. Mar.

Apr.

1

Hong Kong

6.5

7.0

6.1

7.4

…

…

…

Korea

4.2

5.9

6.4

3.3

…

…

…

Singapore

7.0

5.5

-4.8

14.6

…

…

…

Taiwan

4.0

6.5

2.9

1.6

…

…

…

Industrial production
Hong Kong

2.4

-1.6

1.7

-3.6

…

…

…

Korea

8.8

7.0

3.2

2.0

-.2

1.0

1.0

11.9

5.9

-8.8

11.3

3.2

5.0

8.1

1.3

1.3

-3.0

Singapore
Taiwan

4.9 -16.4
1.2

n.a.

1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

NIEs Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade Balance
(Billions of U.S. dollars, s.a.a.r.)

2007
Indicator

Q4
Hong Kong

2008

2006 2007
Q1

Mar.

Apr.

-17.9 -23.5 -29.6 -24.2 -35.9

May

-3.1

n.a.

Korea

27.9

29.4

18.2

2.4

5.0

32.9

n.a.

Singapore

33.1

36.2

25.1

22.8

8.3

28.6

24.7

Taiwan

11.6

16.8

22.1

.3 -11.8

5.8

18.0

n.a. Not available.

NIEs Economic Indicators: CPI Inflation
(Percent change from year earlier, except as noted)

Indicator

2006 1 2007 1

2007
Q4

Hong Kong

2.3

Korea

3.8

3.5

2008
Q1
4.5

Mar.
4.1

Apr.
5.4

May
n.a.

2.1

3.6

3.4

3.8

4.0

4.1

4.9

Singapore

.8

4.4

4.1

6.6

6.7

7.5

n.a.

Taiwan

.7

3.3

4.5

3.6

3.9

3.8

3.7

1. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec  Return to table
n.a. Not available.

NIEs
Figure: Industrial Production
A line chart shows four series, "Korea", "Singapore", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan" from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is January 2000 = 100.

The Korea series begins at about 105.1 in 2001, and generally increases to about 173 in 2008:Q1.

The Singapore series begins at about 90 in 2002, it fluctuates and generally increases to about 170 in 2008 and then decreases to end at about 142 in 2008:Q1.

The Hong Kong series begins at about 86 in 2002, decreases to about 75 in late 2003, it generally increases to about 85 in late 2005 and decreases to end at
about 80 in 2008:Q1.

The Taiwan series begins at about 95 in 2002, and generally increases to end at about 147 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Consumer Prices

A line chart shows four series, "Korea", "Singapore", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan" from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent change from year earlier.

The Korea series begins at about 2.5 percent in 2002, generally increases to about 4.5 in 2003 and 2004, generally decreases to about 2 in 2006 and then
generally increases to end at about 4.8 in 2008:Q1.

The Singapore series begins at about -1 percent in 2002, generally increases to about 2.4 in 2004, generally decreases to about -0.1 in 2005, increases to about
1.5 by 2006, and decreases to about 0.5 in late 2006. It then generally increases and ends about 7.5 in 2008:Q1.

The Hong Kong series begins at about -3.5 percent in 2002, increases to about -1.5 in late 2002, decreases to about 4 by mid-2003, and generally increases to
about 1.5 in 2004. It then generally increases to about 2.5 in 2006, decreases to about 1 in 2007 and generally increases to end at about 5.2 in 2008:Q1.

The Taiwan series begins at about -1.5 in percent 2002, it generally increases to about 3 in 2004, and generally decreases to about -1 in 2006. It then generally
increases to end at about 3.7 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances
A line chart shows 4 series, "Korea", "Singapore", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan" from 2002 through 2008:Q2. Data is 3-month moving average; unit is billions of
dollars.

The Korea series begins at about $0.8 billion in 2002, increases to about 1.4 shortly after, decreases to about 0.7 in 2003, and generally increases to about 3.6 in
early 2005. It then generally decreases to about 1.75 in early 2006, generally increases to about 3.5 in late 2007, decreases to about 0.2 in 2008:Q1 and then
increases to end at about 1.1 in 2008:Q2.

The Singapore series begins at about $0.8 billion in 2002, decreases to about 0.4 in 2002, it generally increases, and fluctuates, to about 3.45 in 2007, and
decreases to end at about 1.75 in 2008:Q2.

The Hong Kong series begins at about $-0.8billion in 2002, it fluctuates and generally decreases to about -2.5 in 2007, and increases to end at about -1.6 in
2008:Q1.

The Taiwan series begins at about $2.1 billion in 2002, decreases to about 1.1 in late 2002, increases to about 1.7 in late 2003, and decreases to about -0.4 in
early 2005. It then increases to about 1.8 in early 2006, decreases to about 0.25 shortly after in 2006:Q1, generally increases to about 2.25 in late 2007, and then
decreases to end at about 0.25 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates
A line chart shows three series, "Korea", "Hong Kong", and "Taiwan" from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent.

The Korea series begins at about 4 percent in 2002, it increases to about 4.2 in 2002:Q2 through 2003:Q2, decreases to about 3.7 in 2003:Q3 through 2004:Q2,
and decreases to about 3 in 2004:Q4. It stays at about 3 through 2005:Q3, it generally increases to about 4.5 in 2006:Q3 through 2007:Q2, and increases to end
at about 5 in 2008:Q1.

The Hong Kong series begins at about 3 percent in 2002, it generally decreases to about 2.75 in 2002:Q4, and about 2.5 in mid-2003 through 2004:Q2. It then
generally increases to about 6.75 in 2006:Q2 through 2007:Q2, and generally decreases to end at about 3.5 in 2008:Q1.

The Taiwan series begins at about 2.2 percent in 2002, it generally decreases to about 1.4 in 2003:Q2 through 2004:Q4, and generally increases to end at about
3.5 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Gross External Debt
A line chart shows gross external debt for Korea from 2002 through 2007. Unit is percent of GDP.

The series begins at about 26 percent in 2002, decreases to about 24 in late 2006, increases to about 26 in 2003, generally decreases to about 25 in early 2005,
and generally increases to end at about 35 in 2007:Q4.

Figure: Short-Term External Debt
A line chart shows short-term external debt for Korea from 2002 through 2007. Unit is percent of reserves.

The series begins at about 42 in 2002, increases to about 45 in 2002:Q4, decreases to about 41 in late 2002, increases to about 45 again in early 2003 and
generally decreases to about 28 in 2004:Q4. It then generally increases and ends at about 56 in 2007:Q3.

ASEAN-4 Economic Indicators: Growth
(Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted)

2007
Indicator

Q4
Real GDP

2008

2006 2007
Q1

Feb. Mar.

Apr.

1

Indonesia

5.8

6.1

3.0

3.0

…

…

…

Malaysia

5.4

7.4

6.5

5.2

…

…

…

Philippines

5.6

6.5

5.1

3.0

…

…

…

Thailand

4.3

5.8

7.2

5.9

…

…

…

-1.6

5.5

.7

2.0

-2.0

.5

.2

4.6

2.3

1.7

1.3

-1.2

-4.4

2.3

-8.5

-2.7

3.2

-1.9

2.1

-1.8

n.a.

7.4

8.2

4.0

1.9

.2

-3.7

1.4

Industrial production 2
Indonesia 3
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand

1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4.  Return to table
2. Annual data are annual averages.  Return to table
3. Staff estimate.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

ASEAN-4 Economic Indicators: Merchandise Trade Balance
(Billions of U.S. dollars, s.a.a.r.)

2007
Indicator

2008

2006 2007
Q4

Q1

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

Indonesia

39.7

39.6

36.9

44.7

35.3

53.6

24.6

Malaysia

29.5

29.2

28.1

33.9

38.8

28.1

50.4

Philippines

-4.4

-5.1

-9.4 -10.6

-8.5 -12.3

n.a.

1.0

12.0

11.9

Thailand

.3 -13.2

1.4

-6.1

n.a. Not available.

ASEAN-4 Economic Indicators: CPI Inflation
(Percent change from year earlier, except as noted)

Indicator

2006 1 2007 1

2007
Q4

2008
Q1

Mar.

Apr.

May

Indonesia

6.5

6.5

6.7

7.6

8.1

9.0

10.4

Malaysia

3.1

2.4

2.2

2.6

2.8

3.0

n.a.

Philippines

4.3

3.9

3.3

5.5

6.4

8.3

9.6

Thailand

3.5

3.2

2.9

5.0

5.3

6.2

7.6

1. Dec./Dec.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.

ASEAN-4
Figure: Industrial Production
A line chart shows four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines", and "Thailand" from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is January 2000 = 100.

The Indonesia series begins at about 140 in 2002, fluctuates between about 120 and 170 through 2007, and ends at about 168 in 2008:Q1.

The Malaysia series begins at about 105 in 2002, and generally increases to end at about 153 in 2008:Q1.

The Philippines series begins at about 95 in 2002, increases to about 105 shortly after, and then generally decreases to end at about 85 in 2008:Q1.

The Thailand series begins at about 110 in 2002, and generally increases to end at about 203 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Consumer Prices
A line chart shows four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines", and "Thailand" from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent change from year earlier.

The Indonesia series begins at about 14 percent in 2002, it generally decreases to about 4 in 2004:Q1, and generally increases to about 17.5 in 2005:Q4. The
series generally decreases to about 5 in 2006:Q1, and increases to end at about 10.1 in 2008:Q1.

The Malaysia series begins at about 1 percent in 2002, increases to about 2, shortly after, decreases to about 0.5 in 2003:Q1, and generally increases to about 5
in 2006:Q1. It then decreases to about 2 in 2007:Q1 and increases to end at about 2.5 in 2008:Q1.

The Philippines series begins at about 3 percent in 2002, decreases to about 2.5 in 2002:Q2, generally increases to about 8 in 2005, and generally decreases to
about 2.5 in 2007:Q1. It then generally increases and ends at about 9.5 in 2008:Q1.

The Thailand series begins at about 0.5 percent in 2002, generally increases to about 2.5 in 2003, about 6 in 2005 and 2006, decreases to about 1 in 2007:Q3,
and then increases to end at about 7.5 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances
A line chart shows four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines", and "Thailand" from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is billions of dollars.

The Indonesia series begins at about $2.1 billion in 2002, fluctuates between about 1.75 and 2.75 through 2005, it generally increases to about 3.75 in 2007:Q1,
and decreases to end at about 3.2 in 2008:Q1.

The Malaysia series begins at about $1.1 billion in 2002, it decreases to about 1.0 in 2002:Q2, and then generally increases to end at about 3.25 in 2008:Q1.

The Philippines series begins at about $0.25 billion in 2002, it decreases to about -0.5 in 2002:Q2, it fluctuates between about -0.1 and -0.5 through mid-2007 and
then decreases to end at about -0.8 in 2008:Q1.

The Thailand series begins at about $0.25 billion in 2002, increases to about 0.6 in 2003, then generally decreases to about -1.1 in mid-2005, and generally
increases to about 1.2 in 2007:Q1. The series decreases to about 0.6 in 2007:Q4, increases to about 1.1 in late 2007 and then decreases to end at about -0.5 in
2008:Q1.

Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates
A line chart shows four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines", and "Thailand" from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent.

The Indonesia series begins at about 17 percent in 2002, it generally decreases to about 7.5 in 2004:Q1, increases to about 12.5 in 2005:Q4, and then decreases
to end at about 7.6 in 2008:Q1.

The Malaysia series begins at about 2.5 percent in 2002, stays about the same through 2005, increases to about 3 in 2006:Q1 and ends at about the same in
2008:Q1.

The Philippines series begins at about 7.5 in 2002, decreases to about 7, shortly after, and then decreases to about 6.5 in mid-2003. The series stays about the
same through 2005, increases to about 7.5 in 2005:Q4, and then decreases to end at about 5.1 in 2008:Q1.

The Thailand series begins at about 2 in 2002, generally decreases to about 1 in 2004, it then increases to about 5 in 2006 and decreases to end at about 3 in
2008:Q1.

Figure: Gross External Debt
A line chart shows four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines", and "Thailand" from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent of GDP.

The Indonesia series begins at about 75 percent in 2002, and generally decreases to end at about 30 in 2007:Q4.

The Malaysia series begins at about 43 percent in 2002, increases to about 50 in 2003, and generally decreases to end at about 33 in 2007:Q3.

The Philippines series begins at about 75 percent in 2002, decreases to about 65 in 2002:Q4, increases to about 75 in 2003:Q3, and then generally decreases to
end at about 33 in 2007:Q4.

The Thailand series begins at about 40 percent in 2002, it decreases to about 35 in 2002:Q4, increases to about 40 in 2003:Q1, and generally decreases to end at
about 22.5 in 2007:Q3.

Figure: Short-Term External Debt
A line chart shows four series, "Indonesia", "Malaysia", "Philippines", and "Thailand" from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent of reserves.

The Indonesia series begins at about 64 percent in 2002, it generally decreases to about 38 in 2004:Q1, increases to about 62 in 2005:Q3, and generally
decreases to about 15 in 2006:Q3. It then increases to about 30 in late 2006, and ends at about the same in 2007:Q3.

The Malaysia series begins at about 32 percent in 2002, generally decreases and ends at about 22 in 2007:Q3.

The Philippines series begins at about 38 percent in 2002, generally increases to about 56 in 2004:Q1, and then generally decreases to end at about 24 in
2007:Q4.

The Thailand series begins at about 38 in 2002:Q1, it generally decreases to about 20 in 2004, and generally increases to about 30 in 2006. The series then
decreases and ends at about 23 in 2007:Q3.

Mexican Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted)

2007
Indicator

2006

2008

2007
Q4

Q1

Mar.

Apr.

May

Real GDP 1

3.7

4.0

3.3

2.1

…

…

…

Overall economic activity

5.0

3.1

.7

.5

-.3

n.a.

n.a.

Industrial production

5.4

1.8

.1

-.2

-.3

-1.8

n.a.

Unemployment rate2

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

n.a.

Consumer prices 3

4.1

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.3

4.5

5.0

4

-6.1

-10.1

-2.3

-12.8

-4.9

-11.7

n.a.

Merchandise imports

4

256.1

281.9

290.4

310.4

314.5

317.0

n.a.

Merchandise exports

4

249.9

271.9

288.1

297.5

309.6

305.3

n.a.

-2.1

-5.4

-3.6

-6.1

…

…

…

Merch. trade balance

Current account

5

1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4.  Return to table
2. Percent; counts as unemployed those working one hour a week or less.  Return to table

3. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec.  Return to table
4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate.  Return to table
5. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

Brazilian Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted)

2007
Indicator

2006

Q4
1

2008

2007
Q1

4.9

6.1

6.6

Industrial production

2.8

6.0

1.8

.6

Unemployment rate2

10.0

9.3

8.5

8.4

3.3

4.5

4.3

4.6

46.5

40.0

33.9

13.6

1.5

-7.4

Real GDP

Consumer prices 3
Merch. trade balance
Current account

4

5

2.9

Mar.

Apr.

…

May

…

…

.6

.2

n.a.

8.2

8.0

n.a.

4.7

5.0

5.5

22.3

17.0

18.5

52.7

-43.0

-53.1

-39.7

n.a.

1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4.  Return to table
2. Percent.  Return to table
3. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec. Price index is IPCA.  Return to table
4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate.  Return to table
5. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

Argentine Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted)

2007
Indicator

2006

Q4
1

2008

2007
Q1

Mar.

Apr.

May

8.5

9.2

8.0

n.a.

…

…

…

Industrial production

8.4

7.5

4.1

-1.5

-1.8

5.3

n.a.

Unemployment rate2

10.2

8.5

7.5

8.4

…

…

…

9.7

8.4

8.4

8.5

8.8

8.9

9.1

12.3

11.1

15.8

11.8

10.9

3.4

n.a.

7.7

7.2

12.6

n.a.

…

…

…

Real GDP

Consumer prices

3

Merch. trade balance
Current account

5

4

1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4.  Return to table
2. Percent; n.s.a.  Return to table
3. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec.  Return to table
4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate.  Return to table
5. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

Venezuelan Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted)

2007

2008

Indicator

2006

2007
Q4

Real GDP

1

11.4

Unemployment rate

2

-9.1

…

Apr.
…

May
…

4

5

8.5

7.3

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

17.0

Non-oil trade balance 4

Current account

10.8

Mar.

10.0

Consumer prices 3

Merch. trade balance

8.5

Q1

22.5

20.1

25.4

27.8

28.2

30.0

-23.0

-34.6

-40.5

-34.3

…

…

…

32.7

23.7

29.8

47.9

…

…

…

27.1

20.0

20.2

40.0

…

…

…

1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4.  Return to table
2. Percent.  Return to table
3. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec.  Return to table
4. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate.  Return to table
5. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate.  Return to table
n.a. Not available.
… Not applicable.

Latin America
Figure: Industrial Production
A line chart shows three series, "Argentina", "Brazil", and "Mexico" from 2002 through 2008. Unit is January 2000 = 100.

The Argentina series begins at about 75 in 2002, decreases to about 73, shortly after, and then generally increases to end at about 137.5 in 2008:Q1.

The Brazil series begins at about 106 in 2002, it fluctuates between about 105 and 115 through 2003 and then increases to end at about 137.5 in 2008:Q1.

The Mexico series begins at about 96 in 2002, increases to about 99 shortly after, decreases to about 97 in 2003, and then generally increases to end at about
110 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Consumer Prices
A line chart shows three series, "Argentina", "Brazil", and "Mexico" from 2002 through 2008. Unit is percent change from year earlier.

The Argentina series begins at about 0.25 percent in 2002, increases to about 41 in late 2002, decreases to about 2 in early 2004, generally increases to about 12
in late 2005 and decreases to end at about 5 in 2008:Q1.

The Brazil series begins at about 7.5 percent in 2002, increases to about 17.5 in 2003, decreases to about 5 in 2004, increases to about 8 in 2005, and decreases
to end at about 5 in 2008:Q1.

The Mexico series begins at about 5 percent in 2002, and generally stays about the same throughout the period with some fluctuation and ends at about 8 in
2008:Q1.

Figure: Merchandise Trade Balances
A line chart shows three series, "Argentina", "Brazil", and "Mexico" from 2002 through 2008. Unit is billions of dollars.

The Argentina series begins at about $1 billion in 2002, increases to about 1.5 in mid-2003, generally decreases to about 0.5 in 2007:Q4 and then increases to
end at about 0.7 in 2008:Q1.

The Brazil series begins at about $0.6 billion in 2002, increases to about 2 in late 2002, it continues to increase to about 4.3 in 2006:Q1 and then decreases to end
at about 3.2 in 2007:Q4.

The Mexico series begins at about $-0.7 billion in 2002, decreases to about -1.5 in 2005:Q1, it increases to about 0.2 in 2006:Q1, and decreases to about -1.2 in
mid-2007. It then increases to about -0.5 in late 2007 and decreases to end at about -1 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Benchmark Interest Rates
A line chart shows two series, "Brazil", and "Mexico from 2002 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent.

The Brazil series begins at about 18 percent in 2002, increases to about 27 in early 2003, decreases to about 16 in 2004, increases to about 20 in mid-2005, and
then decreases to end at about 13 in 2008:Q1.

The Mexico series begins at about 7.5 percent in 2002, it decreases to about 6, shortly after, increases to about 9 in early 2003, and decreases to about 4 by mid2003. It then increases to about 10 in 2005, decreases to about 7 in 2006 and then increases to end at about 7.5 in 2008:Q1.

Figure: Gross External Debt
A line chart shows three series, "Argentina", "Brazil", and "Mexico" from 2002 through 2008. Unit is percent of GDP.

The Argentina series begins at about 124 percent in 2002, increases to about 175 by mid-2002, decreases to about 95 in 2003:Q3, increases to about 115 in
2003:Q4, and then generally decreases to end at about 45 in 2007:Q3.

The Brazil series begins at about 149 percent in 2002, it increases to about 195 in 2002:Q4, and then generally decreases to end at about 50 in 2007:Q4.

The Mexico series begins at about 25 percent in 2002 and generally stays the same through mid-2005, and then decreases to end at about 24 in 2007:Q3.

Figure: Short-Term External Debt
A line chart shows three series, "Argentina (left scale)", "Brazil", and "Mexico" from 2002 through 2008. The left scale ranges from 0 to 450, and the right scale
ranges from 0 to 210. Unit is percent of reserves.

The Argentina series begins at about 175 percent in 2002, it increases to about 225 in 2002:Q2, decreases to about 160 in 2003:Q3, and increases to about 425 in
2004:Q1. It then generally decreases to end at about 55 in 2007:Q3.

The Brazil series begins at about 110 percent in 2002, decreases to about 90, shortly after, and decreases to about 80 in 2003:Q2, and about 37 in 2003:Q3. It
then generally decreases to end at about 30 in 2007:Q3.

The Mexico series begins at about 55 percent in 2002:Q1, and then generally decreases to end at about 30 in 2007:Q3.

Turkish Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period, s.a., except as noted)

2007
Indicator

2006

Q4
Real GDP

1

2008

2007
Q1

Mar.

Apr.

May

5.7

Industrial production
Consumer prices 2

3.4

5.0

n.a.

…

…

…

5.8

5.4

2.2

3.4

-6.4

2.6

n.a.

9.7

8.4

8.2

8.8

9.2

9.7

10.7

Merch. trade balance 3

-54.1

-62.9

-72.8

-73.1

-64.4

-75.0

n.a.

Current account 4

-31.9

-37.5

-46.2

-48.0

-49.8

-58.6

n.a.

9.9

9.9

10.0

9.9

…

…

…

Unemployment rate

5

1. Annual rate. Annual data are Q4/Q4.  Return to table
2. Percent change from year-earlier period, except annual data, which are Dec./Dec.  Return to table
3. Billions of U.S. dollars, annual rate. Imports are c.i.f.  Return to table
4. Billions of U.S. dollars, n.s.a., annual rate.  Return to table
5. Percent  Return to table
n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014

Accessible Material
June 2008 Greenbook Supplement Tables and Charts†
Supplemental Notes
Commercial Bank Credit
(Percent change, annual rate, except as noted; seasonally adjusted)

Type of credit

Total

2007

H2
2007

Q4
2007

Q1
2008

Apr.
2008

May
2008

Level1
May
2008

10.4

10.9

9.4

6.7

-5.3

2.2

9,005

11.3

11.3

10.5

9.9

.2

2.7

6,817

Commercial and industrial

19.2

25.2

27.5

15.8

12.2

3.2

1,490

Commercial real estate

10.1

9.8

9.0

9.3

11.0

6.7

1,645

5.8

-1.4

-5.4

5.5

2.0

-6.0

1,876

Revolving home equity

5.7

6.4

7.3

11.0

19.9

12.7

508

Other

5.8

-4.0

-9.6

3.5

-4.3

-12.8

1,369

Consumer

7.9

10.8

10.6

7.5

9.2

6.2

822

7.2

9.4

8.4

7.7

9.5

8.1

1,237

16.7

20.8

20.9

12.4

-44.7

9.0

984

7.6

9.7

6.0

-2.7

-22.5

.8

2,188

-6.7

-6.6

-17.9

-7.4

-5.4

5.2

1,128

27.9

30.0

34.2

2.1

-39.8

-4.0

1,060

Loans2
Total
To businesses

To households
Residential real estate

Originated 3
Other

4

Securities
Total
Treasury and agency
Other

5

Note. Yearly annual rates are Q4 to Q4; quarterly and monthly annual rates use corresponding average levels. Data have been adjusted to remove the effects of mark-to-market accounting rules
(FIN 39 and FAS 115), the initial consolidation of certain variable interest entities (FIN 46), the initial adoption of fair value accounting (FAS 159), and the effects of sizable thrift-to-bank and
bank-to-thrift structure activity in October 2006, March 2007, and October 2007. Data also account for breaks caused by reclassifications.
1. Billions of dollars. Pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels.  Return to table
2. Excludes interbank loans.  Return to table
3. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks.  Return to table
4. Includes security loans and loans to farmers, state and local governments, and all others not elsewhere classified. Also includes lease financing receivables.  Return to table
5. Includes private mortgage-backed securities; securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments; and any trading account assets that are not Treasury or agency
securities.  Return to table

Figure: C&I Loan Rate Spreads
As shown, the figure is identical to the corresponding figure from the Greenbook Part 2 (description following).

A line chart shows two series, "Weighted average", and "Weighted average adjusted"*, from 1997 through 2008:Q2. Data is quarterly, unit is basis points.

The "Weighted average" series begins at about 153 in mid-1997, it generally increases to about 221 in 2004, and then generally decreases to end at about 180 in
2008:Q2.

The "Weighted average adjusted"* series begins at about 153 in mid-1997, generally increases to about 200 by early 2003, and generally decreases to about 139

in early 2006. The series ends at about 141 in 2008:Q2.
Note. Spreads over market interest rate on an instrument of comparable maturity on loans less than $25 million (2006$).
* Adjusted for changes in nonprice loan characteristics.  Return to text
Source. Survey of Terms of Business Lending.

Figure: Return on Assets at Commercial Banks
As shown, the figure is identical to the corresponding figure from the Greenbook Part 2 (description following).

A line chart shows two series, "100 largest banks", and "All other banks" from 1991 through 2008:Q1. Unit is percent.

The "100 largest banks" series begins at about 0.25 in 1991, generally increases to about 1.25 in 1993, and fluctuates between about 0.95 and 1.6 through 2008.
It then generally decreases to about 0.25 by early 2008, and increases to end at about 0.6 in 2008:Q1.

The "All other banks" series begins at about 0.25 in 1991, generally increases to about 1.49 in 1998, and generally decreases to about 1.2 in 2000 and 2001. It
then generally increases to about 1.4 by 2007, generally decreases to about 0.8 by early 2008, and increases to end at about 0.95 in 2008:Q1.
Source. Call Report.

Selected Financial Market Quotations
(One-day quotes in percent except as noted)

2007

2008

Change to June 19 from selected dates (percentage points)

Instrument
Aug. 6

Jan. 31

Apr. 29

June 19

2007 Aug. 6

2008 Jan. 31

2008 Apr. 29

Short-term
FOMC intended federal funds rate

5.25

3.00

2.25

2.00

-3.25

-1.00

-.25

3-month

4.74

1.92

1.44

1.87

-2.87

-.05

.43

6-month

4.72

2.02

1.70

2.23

-2.49

.21

.53

1-month

5.26

2.95

2.50

2.36

-2.90

-.59

-.14

3-month

5.29

2.98

2.83

2.72

-2.57

-.26

-.11

3-month

5.34

3.01

2.84

2.78

-2.56

-.23

-.06

6-month

5.27

2.93

2.98

3.17

-2.10

.24

.19

1-month

5.33

3.15

2.90

2.70

-2.63

-.45

-.20

3-month

5.35

3.15

3.15

2.95

-2.40

-.20

-.20

8.25

6.00

5.25

5.00

-3.25

-1.00

-.25

2-year

4.49

2.16

2.28

2.94

-1.55

.78

.66

5-year

4.52

2.83

3.11

3.70

-.82

.87

.59

10-year

4.82

3.86

4.04

4.44

-.38

.58

.40

5-year

2.43

.68

1.10

1.24

-1.19

.56

.14

10-year

2.48

1.35

1.71

1.84

-.64

.49

.13

Treasury bills1

Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates)2

Large negotiable CDs 1

Eurodollar deposits3

 

 

Bank prime rate
Intermediate- and long-term
U.S. Treasury 4

U.S. Treasury indexed notes 5

 

 

Municipal general obligations (Bond Buyer) 6

4.51

4.39

4.68

4.76

.25

.37

.08

10-year swap

5.44

4.23

4.39

4.86

-.58

.63

.47

10-year FNMA7

5.34

4.28

4.53

5.01

-.33

.73

.48

10-year AA 8

6.12

5.62

6.01

6.51

.39

.89

.50

6.57

6.39

6.82

7.06

.49

.67

.24

9.21

9.80

9.80

9.95

.74

.15

.15

30-year fixed

6.59

5.68

6.06

6.42

-.17

.74

.36

1-year adjustable

5.65

5.05

5.29

5.19

-.46

.14

-.10

Private instruments

10-year BBB

8

10-year high yield

8

Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate)

Record high

2008

Change to June 19 from selected dates (percent)

Stock exchange index
Level

Date

Jan. 31

Apr. 29

June 19

Record high

2008 Jan. 31

2008 Apr. 29

Dow Jones Industrial

14,165

10-9-07

12,650

12,832

12,063

-14.84

-4.64

-5.99

S&P 500 Composite

1,565

10-9-07

1,379

1,391

1,343

-14.20

-2.59

-3.46

Nasdaq

5,049

3-10-00

2,390

2,426

2,462

-51.23

3.02

1.48

Russell 2000

856

7-13-07

713

719

738

-13.78

3.44

2.63

Wilshire 5000

15,807

10-9-07

13,897

14,033

13,759

-12.96

-.99

-1.95

1. Secondary market.  Return to table
2. Financial commercial paper.  Return to table
3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. eastern time.  Return to table
4. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities.  Return to table
5. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using all outstanding securities and adjusted for the carry effect.  Return to table
6. Most recent Thursday quote.  Return to table
7. Constant-maturity yields estimated from Fannie Mae domestic noncallable coupon securities.  Return to table
8. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data.  Return to table
NOTES:
 August 6, 2007, is the day before the August 2007 FOMC meeting.
 January 31, 2008, is the day after the January 2008 FOMC meeting.
 April 29, 2008, is the day before the most recent FOMC monetary policy announcement.

† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102