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June 24-25, 2003
A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., starting on Tuesday, June 24, 2003, at 2:30 p.m.
and continuing on Wednesday, June 25, 2003, at 9:00 a.m.
Present:
Mr. Greenspan, Chairman
Mr. Bernanke
Ms. Bies
Mr. Broaddus
Mr. Ferguson
Mr. Gramlich
Mr. Guynn
Mr. Kohn
Mr. Moskow
Mr. Olson
Mr. Parry
Mr. Hoenig, Mses. Minehan and Pianalto, Messrs. Poole and Stewart, Alternate
Members of the Federal Open Market Committee
Messrs. McTeer, Santomero, and Stern, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of
Dallas, Philadelphia, and Minneapolis respectively
Mr. Reinhart, Secretary and Economist
Mr. Bernard, Deputy Secretary
Mr. Gillum, Assistant Secretary
Ms. Smith, Assistant Secretary
Mr. Mattingly, General Counsel
Ms. Johnson, Economist
Mr. Stockton, Economist
Mr. Connors, Ms. Cumming, Messrs. Eisenbeis, Goodfriend, Howard, Judd, Lindsey,
Struckmeyer, and Wilcox, Associate Economists
Mr. Kos, Manager, System Open Market Account
Messrs. Ettin and Madigan, Deputy Directors, Divisions of Research and Statistics
and Monetary Affairs respectively, Board of Governors
Messrs. Slifman and Oliner, Associate Directors, Division of Research and Statistics,
Board of Governors

Messrs. Clouse and Whitesell, Deputy Associate Directors, Division of Monetary
Affairs, Board of Governors
Mr. Reifschneider, 2 Assistant Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of
Governors
Mr. Orphanides, 1 Adviser, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors
Mr. Elmendorf, 2 Section Chief, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of
Governors
Ms. Kusko, 2 Senior Economist, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of
Governors
Messrs. Bassett 2 and Wood, 2 Economists, Divisions of Monetary Affairs and
International Finance respectively, Board of Governors
Mr. Skidmore, Special Assistant to the Board, Office of Board Members, Board of
Governors
Mr. Luecke, Senior Financial Analyst, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of
Governors
Ms. Low, Open Market Secretariat Assistant, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of
Governors
Mr. Barron, First Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Messrs. Fuhrer and Hakkio, Ms. Mester, Messrs. Rasche, Rolnick, Rosenblum, and
Sniderman, Senior Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Kansas City,
Philadelphia, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas, and Cleveland respectively
Messrs. Evans, Hilton, and Kuttner, 1 Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of
Chicago, New York, and New York respectively
By unanimous vote, the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee held
on May 6, 2003, were approved.
The Manager of the System Open Market Account reported on recent developments in
foreign exchange markets. There were no open market operations in foreign currencies for
the System's account in the period since the previous meeting.
The Manager also reported on developments in domestic financial markets and on System
open market transactions in government securities and securities issued or fully guaranteed
by federal agencies during the period May 6, 2003, through June 24, 2003. By unanimous
vote, the Committee ratified these transactions.
The Committee discussed at length alternative means of providing monetary stimulus should
the target federal funds rate be reduced to a point where there was little or no latitude for

additional easing through this conventional policy instrument. The members agreed that
current economic conditions and the prevailing stances of monetary and fiscal policy made
the need to use unusual monetary policy tools a quite remote possibility. Even so, they
believed it was useful to discuss that possibility because of the implications for financial
markets and institutions and for the conduct of monetary policy of reducing short-term
interest rates to very low levels. An environment involving such interest rates could have
adverse repercussions on the functioning of some sectors of the money market, but the
members agreed that the potential extent of such disruptions would not be sufficient to
prevent the Committee from taking advantage of the full scope of conventional easing of the
federal funds rate, should that become necessary. Beyond that, a variety of nonconventional
measures for further easing was available. In this regard, the members discussed the
advantages and disadvantages of various approaches that, possibly employed in some
combination, would alter the size and composition of the System's balance sheet. They also
considered aspects of the Committee's communications as a means of underscoring to the
public its willingness to follow a sufficiently accommodative path of monetary policy for as
long as necessary to foster improved economic performance. The members did not see the
need at this time to reach a consensus on the desirability of any specific nontraditional
approach to the implementation of monetary policy, particularly given the low probability of
its near-term use. As experience had shown, at times of economic and financial market stress
the specific policy tools used would depend on circumstances. For now, however, they
believed that arriving at an understanding of the various options that might be employed
prepared them to respond more flexibly and effectively to unanticipated developments. While
considerable uncertainty surrounded each individual policy option, the members agreed that
the effectiveness of these alternative tools, along with the 125 basis points of conventional
easing still available, would allow monetary policy to combat economic weakness and
forestall any unexpected tendency for a pernicious deflation to develop.
The information reviewed at this meeting suggested that the economy continued to expand at
a subpar pace in recent months. Consumer spending increased moderately, housing activity
held at a high level, and government outlays grew substantially. Business investment,
however, was still soft. Industrial production and employment appeared to have stabilized
after an extended period of weakness. Consumer price inflation remained at a very low level.
Private nonfarm payrolls changed little on balance in April and May after declines earlier in
the year. Although employment in manufacturing continued to fall in May, hiring in
temporary help services, which supplies many of its workers to manufacturing, picked up
noticeably. Construction and financial services continued to add jobs. Unemployment edged
up further in May, to 6.1 percent, and the number of both short-term job losers and
longer-term unemployed increased as well. Initial claims for unemployment insurance
remained high.
Industrial production increased slightly in May after sizable declines in the preceding two
months. The manufacturing sector recorded broad-based improvement, though automobile
assemblies and the output of communications equipment continued to slide. The effects of
strength in the mining sector on the industrial production index were more than offset by a
reduction in utility output. Overall capacity utilization remained very low, with
manufacturing utilization near a twenty-year low.
Real consumer outlays, excluding cars and trucks, were flat in April but turned up in May.
Spending on motor vehicles rose over the two months from the first-quarter pace. At the

same time, the fundamentals underlying household spending became more favorable: Real
disposable income posted solid gains, and both the stock market and consumer confidence
recovered from earlier in the year.
Activity in the housing market was reasonably well maintained in April and May. Despite
unusually wet weather in many areas, starts of single-family and multifamily units in the two
months were just a little below their strong first-quarter levels. Building permits for new
single-family and multifamily homes were up from a depressed March level. Sales of both
existing and new homes in April and May were above the high levels recorded in recent
quarters.
Orders and shipments of nondefense capital goods were lackluster in April and May. This
sluggish performance followed a first-quarter decline in real outlays on equipment and
software that had more than reversed the fourth-quarter gains. Excluding purchases of
transportation equipment, however, outlays grew a bit over the first quarter. Real investment
in nonresidential structures dropped further in that quarter, though the rate of decline slowed.
Outlays for office buildings and industrial structures were down sharply, and falling rents and
rising vacancy rates in April suggested further weakness in the second quarter.
The book value of manufacturing inventories rose moderately further in the first quarter and
in April. Relative to shipments and sales, inventories of manufacturers, wholesalers, and
retailers have remained at quite low levels thus far this year.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services edged up in April from the first-quarter rate.
Real GDP growth in the major foreign industrial countries remained weak in the first quarter
as external demand sagged amid heightened geopolitical uncertainties. Real GDP growth
continued to slow in the first quarter in Japan and the United Kingdom, and economic
activity in the euro area was flat. By contrast, economic activity accelerated in Canada in the
first quarter.
Sharp declines in energy prices pulled down overall consumer prices in April and May, but
core consumer prices edged up. On a year-over-year basis, however, core consumer price
inflation eased noticeably. Core producer price inflation also declined over the year ending in
May. With regard to labor costs, average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers were flat in April and increased moderately in May. The twelve-month change was
somewhat above that for the year earlier.
At its May 6, 2003, meeting the Federal Open Market Committee adopted a directive that
called for maintaining conditions in reserve markets consistent with keeping the federal funds
rate at around 1-1/4 percent. The Committee discussed a post-meeting release to the press
stating that over the next few quarters the upside and downside risks to the attainment of
sustainable growth were roughly equal, but that, in contrast, over the same period the
probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation, though minor, exceeded that of a
pickup in inflation from its already low level. The Committee also agreed to a statement that,
taken together, the balance of risks to achieving its goals was weighted toward weakness over
the foreseeable future. The Committee noted that, while the geopolitical tensions that had
inhibited economic expansion in earlier months appeared to have diminished, the timing and
extent of an improving economic performance could not be reliably ascertained. In the
current circumstances, the members concluded the prudent course was to maintain a steady
policy stance, a high degree of vigilance, and a readiness to respond promptly as needed to

the emergence of clearer evidence relating to the performance of the economy.
The Committee's decision at the May meeting relating to the federal funds rate was not a
surprise to most market participants. However, splitting the balance of risks statement into
separate assessments about growth and inflation, in addition to noting a concern about a
further possible decline of inflation from an already low level, led market participants to
mark down their expectations for the federal funds rate. Consistent with those expectations,
Treasury coupon yields declined 35 to 60 basis points. Yields on corporate bonds also fell
about in line with rates on Treasuries even though capital markets absorbed a surge in bond
issuance by highly rated firms. Equity prices, buoyed by the decline in bond yields as well as
the improved outlook for economic growth, registered sizable gains over the intermeeting
period.
The dollar continued to depreciate in terms of an index of major foreign currencies amid
growing concerns about the financing burden of the large and growing U.S. current account
deficit and questions by market participants about the commitment of U.S authorities to a
"strong dollar" policy. Long-term interest rates fell in all major industrial economies, while
equity prices rose substantially.
Growth of M2 surged in May. At least part of the acceleration was due to special factors
related to strong mortgage refinancing activity and to the flow of funds associated with tax
payments.
The staff forecast prepared for this meeting once again suggested that the economic
expansion would strengthen substantially as the year progressed. Accommodative financial
conditions, recent additional fiscal stimulus, and robust gains in structural productivity would
provide significant impetus to spending over the months ahead. Inventory overhangs had
been substantially reduced, and business capital stocks likely had moved closer to desired
levels. As a consequence, improving sales and profits, low financing costs, and the temporary
federal tax incentive for investment in new equipment and software were expected gradually
to boost business investment spending. Given the ongoing slack in resource utilization,
downward pressure on core price inflation was expected over the forecast period.
In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic developments, members
referred to signs of improvement in some sectors of the economy, but they saw no conclusive
evidence of an appreciable overall strengthening in the sluggish economic expansion. On the
positive side, they pointed to reports of some pickup in retail sales, indications that labor and
product markets might be stabilizing, continued robust activity in housing markets, and
ongoing impetus from the federal government sector. Concurrently, however, weakness
persisted in business capital expenditures, which members continued to view as the critical
factor inhibiting the economic expansion. Looking ahead, they emphasized that favorable
underlying conditions were in place to support a substantial acceleration of the expansion,
though the timing and dimensions of a significantly improved economic performance
remained uncertain. Positive factors bearing on the outlook mentioned by members included
the accommodative stance of monetary policy and supportive financial conditions more
generally, the persistence of rapid growth in labor productivity, sizable declines in energy
prices from elevated levels earlier in the year, and indications of rising consumer confidence
and of less negative business sentiment. Members also gave considerable emphasis to the
anticipated effects of recent legislation that in short order would add substantially to the
degree of fiscal stimulus.

In their review of the outlook for inflation, members commented that currently elevated
levels of unused labor and other resources were likely to persist for an extended period, even
if economic growth turned out to be robust. And until it was substantially reduced, the output
gap would undoubtedly preclude any significant acceleration in inflation and could well
cause inflation to edge down from its already low level. At the same time, a substantial
further decline in inflation was viewed as having a low probability, though disinflation would
remain a matter of concern until a sustained pickup in overall economic activity was firmly
established.
In preparation for the midyear monetary policy report to Congress, the members of the Board
of Governors and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks submitted individual
projections of the growth of GDP, the rate of unemployment, and the rate of inflation for the
years 2003 and 2004. The members based these forecasts on their individual views as to the
appropriate path of policy over the projection period and had the opportunity to update them
until July 3. The forecasts of the rate of expansion in real GDP had central tendencies of
2-1/2 to 2-3/4 percent for 2003, implying that economic growth would accelerate noticeably
in the second half of the year, and 3-3/4 to 4-3/4 percent for 2004. These rates of growth
were associated with central tendencies for the civilian rate of unemployment of 6 to 6-1/4
percent in the fourth quarter of 2003 and 5-1/2 to 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004.
Forecasts of inflation, as measured by the chain-type price index for personal consumption
expenditures, pointed to the persistence of quite low inflation rates centered on ranges of
1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent for this year and 1 to 1-1/2 percent in 2004.
Despite some differences with regard to the timing and strength of the anticipated upturn in
the expansion, the members agreed that accommodative monetary and fiscal policies along
with much improved financial conditions were likely to foster a better economic performance
over time. Growing market perceptions that monetary policy would remain stimulative for a
longer period than previously anticipated appeared to have contributed to significant declines
in interest rates across maturities and risk classes, and to rising prices in equity markets. The
gains in equity prices and a narrowing of risk spreads also appeared to reflect more upbeat
assessments of underlying business conditions and, partly in concert with reduced
geopolitical risks since the end of major military activity in Iraq, growing convictions that the
downside vulnerability of the domestic economy had diminished. Both business firms and
households had continued to take advantage of generally improving financial conditions to
strengthen their balance sheets through debt restructuring activities, thereby helping to
buttress the economy's financial underpinnings and foster sustained expansion.
The ongoing stimulative effects of earlier tax cuts and large increases in defense spending
had recently been enhanced by added fiscal stimulus that would provide households with
more spendable income in the months immediately ahead than had been anticipated earlier.
The expected result would be a relatively prompt and sizable boost to consumer expenditures
and, over time, to business spending. Some members expressed reservations, however, about
the extent of the near-term effects of tax rate reductions on overall consumer spending, given
the likelihood that some portion of the funds transferred to households would be used to
reduce personal debts or to add to various savings vehicles. Members also noted that
measures taken by many state and local governments to raise taxes and trim spending in
order to resolve fiscal crises would offset an uncertain--though in the view of most a
small--part of the federal sector stimulus over the period ahead. On balance, given the
combined effects of lower tax rates and the outlook for continued high levels of defense

spending, the federal sector generally was seen as an important source of stimulus to the
economy, both in the near term and over the forecast horizon.
With regard to the outlook for key expenditure sectors of the economy, members again
commented that the prospects for robust and sustained expansion would depend importantly
on business fixed investment, a sector where significant recovery had thus far failed to
materialize. A high degree of caution continued to dominate business decisionmaking in the
context of weak markets for the output of numerous firms and the related absence of pricing
power. And while the low cost and ample availability of financing for most business firms
along with the recently raised partial tax expensing provision for certain investment outlays
were positive factors, reports from business executives indicated that a key factor inhibiting
decisions to invest at this point was the unfavorable outlook for sales growth in the context of
substantial margins of excess capacity. Members also noted that the attention of many boards
of directors and other senior corporate officials remained focused on corporate governance
and accounting issues rather than potential capital projects, and that concerns about
vulnerabilities relating to such issues had damped appetites for taking risks. In this
environment, investment outlays tended to be limited to the replacement and upgrading of
existing facilities rather than expansion. A number of members nonetheless cited faint signs
of more positive investment prospects, though not of currently increasing investment
expenditures, gleaned from anecdotal commentary and responses to recent capital spending
surveys. The latest readings on orders and shipments of durable goods were also seen as a
favorable, though not a conclusive, sign of higher investment spending. In general, the
members anticipated that current restraints on business investment spending would lift
slowly as the expansion gathered momentum and business caution in investing and hiring
diminished further in response to increasing demand.
Outside the motor vehicle industry, business inventories appeared to be at generally low
levels, with many retailers and others reported to be following cautious inventory policies in
anticipation of sluggish sales over coming months. As a consequence, some inventory
accumulation appeared likely if final demand accelerated in line with the members' current
forecasts.
Consumer spending, though elevated, had grown at a reduced pace in recent quarters and the
members generally saw some acceleration as a likely but not inevitable prospect. An
important factor in this outlook was the anticipated effects of sizable additions to disposable
incomes stemming from the recent tax legislation. Other favorable factors referenced by the
members included indications of growing consumer confidence, the effects of rising stock
market wealth on consumer balance sheets, continued opportunities for many consumers to
extract equity from the appreciated value of their homes and to reduce interest service
burdens by refinancing mortgages, and more fundamentally a continuing uptrend in
disposable personal incomes associated in part with robust gains in labor productivity. Some
members nonetheless raised a note of caution regarding the potential strength of consumer
spending. They commented in particular that the lack of significant job growth resulting from
persisting business reluctance to hire new workers could undermine consumer confidence
and spending at some point, though they noted that there was little evidence of this as yet.
Some members also referred to the drain on disposable incomes stemming from rising local
taxes and fees intended to address the severe budget problems of many state and local
governments. On balance, while they acknowledged the risks of a weaker outcome, the
members generally expected the consumer sector to play a key role in their forecasts of a

significantly strengthening expansion.
The members continued to report a high level of housing demand in numerous parts of the
country, with housing construction described as a notably robust sector in many regional
economies. The strong performance of the housing industry continued to be attributed in
large measure to the lowest mortgage interest rates in several decades. On a more negative
note, multifamily construction was reported to be weak in a number of areas, evidently
reflecting low occupancy rates and rents.
Although current growth in demand from abroad was being held down by the relatively
sluggish economies of major U.S. trading partners, the weaker dollar was expected to foster
somewhat faster expansion in U.S. exports. However, downward revisions to foreign growth
forecasts for the balance of this year implied continuing restraint on the expansion in foreign
demand for U.S. goods and services. Members nonetheless cited some anecdotal evidence of
a pickup in foreign orders from U.S. manufacturers. At the same time, many U.S. business
contacts continued to express concern about the strength of foreign competition for their
products in domestic markets.
With the economy thought likely to continue to operate below its potential for an extended
period and productivity growth expected to remain robust, the members believed that the
current low-inflation environment would persist over the next several quarters and indeed
that some further disinflation could be in store. In this regard, there was concern that inflation
could be approaching a level that would begin to complicate the implementation of monetary
policy if economic weakness unexpectedly persisted or the economy was subjected to
another negative demand shock. However, in the view of at least some members, recent
developments had reduced the unwelcome prospect of substantial additional disinflation.
Those developments included a recent uptick in core measures of consumer prices, a drop in
the dollar on foreign exchange markets, and still elevated energy prices--all against the
backdrop of longer-term inflation expectations that were firmly anchored. More importantly,
however, the outlook for a strengthening expansion, which might well materialize in the near
future, should limit any further disinflationary trend.
In the Committee's discussion of policy for the intermeeting period ahead, all but one of the
members indicated that they could support a proposal to reduce the target federal funds rate
¼ percentage point to a level of 1 percent. While a significant step-up in the pace of the
expansion appeared to be a likely prospect, such an outcome was still a forecast whose
eventual realization, including both its timing and extent, remained uncertain. In the
circumstances and given currently large margins of unemployed labor and other resources,
the members agreed that an easing move was desirable to provide additional insurance that a
stronger economy would in fact materialize. Some members noted that at the May meeting
they had contemplated the need for an easing action at this meeting unless compelling
evidence developed in the interim that the hoped-for acceleration in economic activity was
clearly under way. The incoming information since the May meeting, while mildly
encouraging, did not provide compelling evidence to warrant forestalling an easing action.
Members saw virtually no prospect that the proposed easing, though it would reinforce an
already accommodative monetary policy, would incur any significant risk of contributing to
rising inflationary pressures, even if the strengthening of the economy proved to be
somewhat greater than they had incorporated in their forecasts. Indeed, the proposed
reduction in the nominal federal funds rate would about offset the apparent increase in the

real federal funds rate stemming from a recent decline in inflation. In this regard, further
disinflation seemed likely to be a more significant concern than rising inflation for a
considerable period of time.
Most of the members expressed a preference for limiting the reduction to ¼ percentage point.
Some commented that a good case could be made for a ½ percentage point easing, though all
but one of these members could support the smaller decrease. Views cited in favor of the ¼
percentage point easing included the emergence of firmer signs of a possible upturn in
economic activity, the near-term prospect of substantial added fiscal stimulus, and an already
very accommodative stance of monetary policy. No member expressed the opinion that a
smaller move should be favored because of concerns about dislocations resulting from a very
low level of the overnight interest rate. However, some members commented that a larger
reduction might be misread as an indication of more concern among policymakers about the
economic outlook than was in fact the case. Moreover, a 50 basis point reduction that was
associated with the communication of a Committee view that the risks to achieving its
objectives for economic activity were balanced might be mistakenly interpreted in the view
of some members as a signal that the Committee had come to the end of its policy easing
moves--a judgment they were not prepared to make at this time. The case for a larger 50
basis point reduction in the target federal funds rate focused on the desirability of a relatively
forceful policy move that would be more likely to promote a strengthening economic
expansion and at the same time provide greater assurance of countering any significant
disinflation. One member, who interpreted recent economic developments as providing fairly
persuasive indications that an upturn in the expansion was already under way, saw merit in
keeping policy unchanged but did not oppose a ¼ percentage point easing.
Concerning the press statement to be released to the public shortly after today's meeting, the
members agreed that it should include a reference to signs of firming economic activity and
should highlight the key factors underlying the members' outlook for a more robust economic
performance over time. Nonetheless, inflation could edge lower and the Committee needed to
be cognizant of the risk of substantial further disinflation, which could have potentially
adverse effects. With regard to the Committee's assessment of the risks to be incorporated in
the press release, the members generally agreed that the risks to the goal of sustainable
economic growth were about balanced for the next few quarters and that the probability of
appreciable further disinflation from an already low level of inflation exceeded the
probability of a rise in inflation. The members also endorsed a general statement stating that,
taken together, the balance of risks to the Committee's dual goals was tilted toward the
downside for the foreseeable future. During the discussion, several members also stressed the
importance of communicating clearly the reasons for the Committee's decisions, thereby
helping to assure the success of the Committee's policymaking efforts.
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the
System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:
The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions
that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To
further its long-run objectives, the Committee in the immediate future seeks
conditions in reserve markets consistent with reducing the federal funds rate to
an average of around 1 percent.

The vote encompassed the following statement whose substance would be included in the
press release to be made available shortly after the meeting:
The risks to the Committee's outlook for sustainable economic growth over the
next several quarters are balanced; the risks to its outlook for inflation over the
next several quarters are weighted toward the downside; and, taken together, the
balance of risks to its objectives is weighted toward the downside in the
foreseeable future.
Votes for this action: Messrs. Greenspan, Bernanke, Ms. Bies, Messrs.
Broaddus, Ferguson, Gramlich, Guynn, Kohn, Moskow, Olson, and Stewart.
(Mr. Stewart voted as an alternate member.)
Votes against this action: Mr. Parry.
Mr. Parry dissented because he preferred a 50 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate
target as insurance against continued sluggishness in economic activity and further declines
in inflation measures to undesirably low rates. While he believed that a significant increase in
the pace of activity over the next several quarters was likely, he had not yet seen convincing
evidence that this process was under way. Moreover, the current slack in labor and product
markets was likely to persist for some time even with a significant pickup in real GDP
growth, and this prospect threatened to reduce inflation further. Finally, recent declines in
inflation expectations had raised the real federal funds rate. In order to offset that increase
and provide additional stimulus, he saw a 50 basis point reduction in the rate as desirable.
It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday, August 12,
2003.
The meeting adjourned at 1:25 p.m.
Vincent R. Reinhart
Secretary
Footnotes
1. Attended portion of meeting relating to the discussion of the conduct of monetary policy in
a period of very low interest rates.
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2. Attended portion of meeting relating to the discussion of economic developments.
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Last update: August 14, 2003, 2:00 PM