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(CONFIDENTIAL FR) December 14, 1973 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee By the Staff BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM December 14, CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 1973 MONETARY AGGREGATES AND MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS Recent developments (1) During November, growth of M1 was more rapid than anticipated, rising at an annual rate of nearly 11 per cent, but on balance in recent weeks. 11 has changed little For the two-month target period as a whole, the annual growth rate appears to be running at around 6-1/2 per cent, close to the upper limit of the Committee's range of tolerance, as the table shows. With recent expansion of time deposits other than large CD's slowing a little more than expected, growth in M 2 appears to be only a little above the mid-point of its two-month range of tolerance. The flattening of M1 in early December lends some credence to the view that the November upsurge reflected essentially temporary influences, including a rise in foreign commercial and central bank deposits and increased precautionary holdings by the public stemming from the energy crisis and the associated stock market decline. Table 1 Growth of Monetary Aggregates and RPD's in November-December Target Period Reserve and Monetary Aggregates Range of (Growth at SAAR in per cent) Tolerance Latest Estimates -1 -- -3 -5.0 M1 4-1/2--6-1/2 6.4 M 6-1/2--8-1/2 7.9 RPD's Memo: Fed funds rate (per cent per annum) for Statement Week Ending 10.17 12.5 10.04 12/12 Avg. 9--10-1/2 -2(2) RPD's appear to have contracted during the November-December target period at about a 5.0 per cent annual rate. This shortfall was greater than allowed for by the Committee's range of tolerance. As shown in Table 2, most of the shortfall in RPD's was attributable to a weaker than expected performance of large CD's (subject over most of the period to a reserve requirement of 11 per cent). Relatively more reserves than anticipated were absorbed by private demand deposits. Table 2 Comparison of Projected Changes in RPD's by Use November-December 1973 (In millions of dollars) Projection as of November 20, 1973 FOMC Meeting Change in Total RPD's Current 1 Projection - 58 1/ Change by Category of Use: -23 2 / - z Private demand deposits Time deposits other than large CD's 21 134 150 157 2/ CD's and nondeposit funds -165 -371- Excess - 64 -152 1/ Change from October 1973 to December level consistent with mid-point of Committee's range of tolerance for RPD growth. 2/ Excludes $60 million decline in required reserves resulting from December 7 change in marginal reserve requirement. (3) Early in the inter-meeting period incoming data indicated that growth of M1 appeared to be above, and M2 about equal to, the upper limits of the ranges specified by the Committee. In such circumstances, would ordinarily have become somewhat more restrictive in its the Desk reserve- supplying operations, expecting the weekly average federal funds -3rate to rise toward the 10-1/2 per cent upper limit of its tolerance. Because of the uncertainties in range of the economic outlook stemming from the mid-East oil embargo and the sensitive state of financial market psychology, however, the Committee directed the Account Manager to continue aiming for a weekly average Federal funds rate around 10-1/4 per cent. In the first two statement weeks of December the funds rate actually averaged 10.17 and 10.04 per cent respectively, with the rate dropping sharply on the last day of both weeks. Member bank borrowing at the Federal Reserve amounted to $1.5 billion in the first week of December, with excess reserves rising to $375 million, but in the following week excess reserves were negative, by $244 million, and borrowing dropped back to $1.3 billion. (4) Since the last Committee meeting, most short- and long-term market interest rates have fluctuated in response to changing expectations with regard to monetary policy and the impact of the energy crisis on the economy. On balance since the last Committee meeting, most short-term rates have declined somewhat. For the most part, the decline in these rates occurred following announcement of the reduction in marginal reserve requirements on December 7. 1/8 to 3/8 of a percentage point. bill rate was bid at 7.53 per cent. The declines ranged generally from Most recently the 3-month Treasury A few large banks have raised their prime lending rate to 10 per cent, but the higher rate has shown no tendency to spread through the banking system. (5) The table on the next page shows (in percentage annual rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various recent -4time periods; figures in parentheses are preliminary revised growth rates based on new benchmarks and seasonal factor review. Appendix Table III compares money supply growth rates computed on a quarterly-average basis with those computed on a last-month-of-quarter basis, old and revised figures. Appendix Table IV compares old and revised money supply growth rates over various other time intervals. are preliminary. and includes both All revised figures -5Past 3 Calendar Years Dec. '72 over Dec. '69 Total reserves 8.4 Nonborrowed reserves Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits Past 12 Months Nov. '73 over I Nov. '72 7.3 (8.5) (7.4) 8.8 5.5 (9.2) (5.2) Past 6 Months Nov. '73 over May '73 6.3 (6.6) 13.3 (9.9) Past 3 Months Nov. '73 over Aug. '73 4.9 (5.4) 13.2 (15.2) I Past Month Nov. '73 over Oct. '73 I -8.1 (-5.3) -2.9 (-3.5) 9.0 8.4 8.1 1.4 -9.t (9.3) (8.4) (8.8) (2.1) (-7.9) 10.9 (10.8) Concepts of Money 7.5 5.6 4.8 4.4 (7.5) (6.8) (5.6) (4.5) 11.3 8.2 (9.2) 8.1 (9.1) 8.7 11.6 (11.4) (9.0) (11.5) 12.8 8.5 7.2 7.4 9.9 M1 (currency plus demand deposits) 1/ M 2 (M1 plus time deposits atcommercial banks other-than large CD's) M3 (M2 plus deposits at thrift institutions) Bank Credit Total member banks deposits (bank credit proxy adj.) 10. 7 11.1 7.5 2.5 0.5 (10.7) (11.1) (7.9) (3.4) (3.0) 12.4 13.8 9.1 5.3 5.0 Loans and investments of commercial banks 2/ Short-term market paper (Monthly avg. change in billions) .9 Large CD's Nonbank commercial paper 3 i ( .9) 1.7 (1.7) 0.1 0.4 -0.1 - -2.0 (0.1) (-1.4) 1.1 1.6 -2.3 (-1.8) 1.1 ~-"-3~- 1/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government. 2/ Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches. 3/ November data not available. Data based on October 1973. NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-ofmonth figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when reserve requirements are changed. -6Prospective developments (6) Of the three alternatives summarized below for Committee consideration, alternative B includes a growth rate for M1 over the first half of 1974 that is consistent with the extension to mid-year of the 5 per cent growth path adopted by the Committee at its previous meeting. This growth path starts from the revised September 1973 base (which is about $2-1/2 billion above the old series, as was indicated in the previous bluebook). In alternative B, M1 is targeted to increase at a 4-1/2 per cent annual rate from December '73-to June '74. This growth rate is lower than 5 per cent to compensate for the overshoot in M 1 growth in the fourth quarter. the chart on the next page, As shown in the estimated level of the money stock in December is about $1 billion above the path level for that month. Alternatives A and C involve more and less rapid growth in the aggregates, respectively. (Detailed figures for the alternatives are shown on page 6a; all figures for the aggregates are based on revised data, though revisions are still in a preliminary stage). Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C M1 5-3/4 4-1/2 3-1/4 M2 8-3/4 7 5-1/4 10-1/2 8 5-1/2 9-11 8-1/4-10-1/4 7-1/4--9-1/4 Targets (1st & 2nd qtrs. combined Credit Proxy Associated ranges for December-January RPD M1 3-1/2-5-1/2 3--5 2-1/2-4-1/2 M2 5-1/2--7-1/2 5--7 4-1/2--6-1/2 9--10-1/4 9-3/4--10-1/2 Federal funds rate range (inter-meeting period) 8-1/4--10 MONEY SUPPLY AND LONGER RUN TARGET PATH RATIO SCALE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 280 5% GROWTH .,, \- ,,-- --1270 REVISED Ml (PRELIMINARY) -1260 A M J A 1973 S O N 0 J F A M 1974 M J -6aAlternative Longer-Run Targets for Key Monetary Aggregates 1973 1974 Alt. A Alt. NOv. Dec. Jan. 269.7 270.3 271.6 269.7 270.3 271.4 Mar. 273.7 273.0 B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. 269.7 270.2 271.2 568.1 570.5 574.1 272.3 582.2 Quarters: B Alt. C Alt. A Alt. B Alt. 568.1 570.5 573.8 568.1 570.4 573.1 888.2 892.8 899.0 888.2 892.7 898.4 888.2 892.6 897.6 580.1 577.8 912.2 909.3 906.3 Rates of Growth 1973 4th Q. 6.6 9.3 9.3 9.3 8.6 8.5 1974 1st Q. 5.0 8.2 6.7 5.2 8.7 7.4 6.2 8.3 6.1 7.7 Months: Dec. 1974 2.7 5.8 2.7 4.9 2.2 4.4 Adjugted Credit Proxy Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C 5.1 5.1 4.9 7.6 6.9 5.7 Total Reserves Alt. C Alt. B Alt. A Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Nov. Dec. Jan. 477.6 447.2 450.6 447.6 447.2 450. 2 447.6 447.2 449.6 34,830 34,876 35,561 34,830 34,872 35,521 34,830 34,862 35,471 32,652 32,739 32,819 32,652 32,725 32,780 32,652 32,725 32,731 Mar. 456.7 454.6 453.2 34,756 34,614 34,467 33,654 32,911 32,765 Jan. 1973 Quarters: 1973 4th Q. 1.2 1.2 2.9 2.7 1st Q. 8.5 4.5 2.2 0.7 -0.9 3.5 33.1 3.2 31.7 1974 C Months: Dec. Jan. -1. 1 9.1 -1. 1 8.0 -1. 1 6.4 3.6 34.3 Alt A -1.2 PD -1.3 -1.3 4.3 5.4 14.5 5.2 13.2 4.9 11.7 -7(7) With regard to money market conditions, the staff would expect some decline in the Federal funds rate between now and mid-January if the Committee chooses to provide the reserves consistent with alternative B. A funds rate range of 9--10-1/4 per cent is shown for that alternative. If the rate were to drop toward the lower end of the range over the next few weeks, the staff would not anticipate that any significant further reductions would be needed in the first few months of 1974 to be consistent with the targeted growth rates for money. (8) The decline in the funds rate expected under alternative B (and the greater decline expected under alternative A) essentially reflects the substantial downward revision in the staff's projection of growth in nominal GNP and the associated weakening in the demand for money and credit. At the time of the last meeting the staff was projecting about a 9 and 8 per cent rate of growth in nominal GNP in the first and second quarters of 1974 respectively; currently, the projected rates of growth are about 6 and 5 per cent for the two quarters. (9) If the Committee wishes to maintain money market conditions close to those currently prevailing, the staff would expect growth in the aggregates to slow to alternative C dimensions. With the Federal funds rate unchanged, it is likely that market interest rates--particularly short-term rates--would adjust upward from current levels in the process of re-establishing a more normal relationship to the funds rate. Current levels of market rates are low relative to the funds rate--in part, apparently, because market participants are anticipating an economic slowdown and the money market easing that has accompanied slowdowns in the past. -8(10) Market interest rates, however, do not appear to have fully discounted future declines in the funds rate. Thus, an actual drop in the funds rate, such as would be likely to occur under alternative B, might trigger sizable further declines in short-term interest rates and also some decline in long rates. Expectational forces probably would carry market rates down in the short run by more than is sustainable over the longer run, however, assuming the funds rate in the early months of next year remained On balance, over the next few weeks the in the 9 per cent plus range. 3-month bill rate is likely to decline into a 6-1/2--7 per cent if the funds rate drops to 9-1/2 per cent or somewhat below. This assumes no substantial central bank sales of Treasury securities as a result of reflows of dollars from abroad. (11) The greater decline in the funds rate under alternative A, as compared with B, would intensify market expectations of declining interest rates. If the funds rate were to drop rapidly and to fall below 9 per cent, the 3-month bill rate might well go to 6 per cent, and perhaps a little lower, at least temporarily. Market expectations of a decline in the discount rate would become much more prevalent. (12) Among the assumptions we have made in working out the various monetary and interest rate relationships are: in large negotiable CD's, in (1) moderate growth some part reflecting the lower cost of those funds resulting from the recent reduction in marginal reserve requirements; (2) continued fairly strong short-term credit demands by business (at least in the early part of next year when inventory accumulation is expected to be strong), but only moderate business loan growth at banks unless the prime loan rate drops relative to the commercial paper rate; (3) no Treasury -9cash borrowing until March (unless foreign central banks find it necessary to redeem sizable amounts of Treasury specials) and sharply diminished Federal agency borrowing; and (4) moderate growth in consumer-type time deposits at banks (under alternative C) and more rapid growth as market interest rates decline (under alternatives B and A) as banks reduce time deposit offering rates only with a lag. -10Proposed directive language (13) Presented below are three alternative formulations for the operational paragraph of the directive, which are intended to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the preceding section. As will be noted, alternatives A and C refer to growth rates in the aggregates "so far this year." For the period through November, these are as follows in terms of the revised series: M 1 , 6.0 per cent; M2, 8.8 per cent; and the bank credit proxy, 11.1 per cent. Alternative A To implement this policy, while taking account of international and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions conmoderate] growth in monetary aggregates over the sistent with [DEL: months ahead AT ABOUT THE RATES PREVAILING SO FAR THIS YEAR. Alternative B To implement this policy, while taking account of international and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with SOMEWHAT SLOWER growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead THAN HAS OCCURRED SO FAR THIS YEAR. Alternative C To implement this policy, while taking account of international and domestic financial market developments, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate] [DEL: SLOWER growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead THAN HAS OCCURRED SO FAR THS YEAR. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) CHART 1 12/14/73 RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -- 34 -1 I A S 0 1973 N 8 t 1 i I Ill M J 1973 . . . . . . . . . M J 1972 S D Ii S i II ~ l 0 * Break in Series Actual Level of RPD After Changes in Reserve Requirements Effective November 9, 1972, July 19, 1973, and October 4, 1973 D STRICTLYCONFIDENTIAL (FR) CHART 2 12/14/73 MONETARY AGGREGATES NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - 270 61/2% growth 250 for Nov -0ec 4%/% growth BROADER MONEY SUPPLY M2 255 580 560 570 8% 2 % growth for Nov Dec 540 560 520 6'%% growth 550 500 -540 440o - 1972 1973 J - J I 1 A - S 0 1973 J I N 4) -CHART 3 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) 12/14/73 MONETARY AGGREGATES ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY BILLIONS OF DOLILARS E 470 450 430 -I410 Vi - I - F I i I 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 I I I Io TOTAL RESERVES 1972 1973 '" eak in series, Actual Level of Total Reserves After Changes in Reserve Requirements and October 4, 1973 J J A S 1973 0 N 0 ltective November 9, 1972, July 19, 1973, CHART 4 MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES MONEY MARKET C INTEREST RATES WEEKLY AVERAGES FEbERAL FUNDS RATE / 1972 1973 1972 1973 1972 1973 TABLE 1 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL --------------------- DECEMBER 14, 1973 BANK RESERVES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS) 4eow- -- ----- v- W --------------------------------ft---------------f--------ft----------------------------------------------- ------------ I REQUIRED RESERVES I AGGREGATE RESERVES .----------------------------------------------------------I--.---II SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ----------------- ft----1(---------------------------------CDOS AND MONBORROWED I PRIVATE OTHER --......---------------------I TOTAL I SEAS ADJ I NON SEAS ADJ II RESERVES RESERVES I DEMAND TIME DEP NON OEP RESFRVES AVAILARLE FOR PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS PERIOf ---------------------------------------------------------- I fl) 1 I MONTHLY LEVELS-SMILLIONSI ---------------1973--OCT. 9 NOV. I DEC. I 1 ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ***-***-------------II OUARTERLYS I I I 32.759 32,540 (32,5271 I I 9TR. OTR. QTR. GTR. I I I I 1 Is.5 1.0 11.6 -3.1) 1 MONTMLYI 1973--OCT NOV. I I DEC. ( I1 NOV.-DEC. I I WEEKLY LEVFLS-SMTLLIONS I ---------- ----I OCT. 3 10 1 1 74 31 NOV. DEC. W w 7 14 21 28 S 12 1 I 1 (3) 34,971 34.777 (34*745) ---- (4) 33.553 33.513 (37,840) -------------- 1 1 -- f ) (St I 19.899 19.889 20.031) 8.299 8,428 ( 8,456) 2.9 2.2 1.4 3.21 1 7.7 9.9 14.5 13.2) ( -------- (7) (8 4,304 4,026 ( 3.933) 1 2.212 2.238 2,218) II I 1413--1ST 2ND Ro 4TH -- I II I II 32.661 (I 32.620 it (32952) II 91 (2) "wo-ft. GOVOT ANO INTERBANK n.9 -9.6 -o .5) 9 1 1 1 99 I II I I i 1 1 8.8 5.8 10.3 1.6) ( -7.1 17.3 12.4 -2.8) 32,715 32.558 32.481 32.785 32.798 I if II I 1 II t II f 32,553 32.672 32,836 32,374 32.782 32.274 -. 0 9 I I 32,496 32,464 32,844 32,301 1 I 1 32,729 32,156 I I ( 16.7 18.7 4.01 1 -55.8 -98.4 -27.7) 11.4) I -63.6) t I 1 9 1 I I 1 1 90.2 85.4 92.5 -59.0) I 14.1 -8.1 -1.1)1 19.3 -2.9 -24.1) it 3P,674 32.808 32.524 32.978 32.764 1 I -4.6) -16) ) 1 4.0) 9 34,644 34,876 34,867 35.258 35,023 33*224 33.438 33,672 33.571 33,725 If 1 II 34,658 34.675 35,180 34.544 33,235 32.943 33,841 33,715 It 1 34.958 34.300 33.164 319729 II ( 1., -0.6 8.7) I 9 1 1 I I 9 19.980 19.595 20.06% 19.82A 20*071 89196 89262 8,298 89326 8.354 4,096 4.500 4,336 4.283 4,186 1,970 2,067 2,343 2,281 2,259 19681 19,914 20,011 19,909 8,379 8,433 8,432 8,467 4.165 4,111 3,973 3,892 2,162 2,211 20,044 20040 8,430 8,454 3.900 39927 2,229 29144 2*336 2*243 m m mm m mm m -...... .. .. m--------------------- m-m-----------------.. -----. w-----..w---m -................--NOTEt DATA SmOWN IN PaRENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REOUIRFMENTS EFFECTIVE JULY 19. AND OCT 4v 1973. AT THE FOMC MEETING OF NOVERMBER 20. 1973 THE COMMTTTEE AGREFD ON A RPD RANGE OF -3 TO -1 m PER CENT. m. m m STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TABLE 2 DECEMBER 14, MONETARY AGGREGATES (ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) -~~-~- ~ I I f PERIOD -- ~--- . . . -------o. ft.--- MONEY SUPPLY NARROW I BROAD (Mil (M2) - - - - rI) I I I I U.S. ADJUSTED II I CREDIT II AOVT. PROXY II DEPOSITS I I - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - -m- (21 II SSI 557.1 562.5 (56*.4) 264,4 266.a (267.2)I 13) 446.5 II IFI II I I I 446.7 II (446.9) 1973--1ST 2NO 3RO ATM 1973--OCT NOV. DEC. 5. 9.5 5.1 ( 8,8) .) 15.0 122.2 10.5 ( 0.9) I 1 I I 10.4 11,6 I < 4.1) I 7.9) ( 6.6) 1.6 0.5 1 0.5) 1 ( 0.5) I I 447.7 446.1 448.3 445.0 445.8 I WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILLTONS I --------------------- 1 OCT. 3 10 17 24 31 NOV. 7 1 21 23 DEC. --------------- I 5 P 12 RE ~~-- -- ft (7) 356.1 356,8 (359.5) 292.8 295.8 (297.2) 1 23,1 16.0 13.4 ( 4.4 9.5 8.7 9.6 9.8 (11.5) 1 16.2 12.3 ( 5.7) I I 1 9.0) I 290.4 291.5 292.5 293.3 294.7 1 295.1 295.9 295.3 296.0 I I I 1 - - - - - I 63.4 61.1 (62.4) I I 6.9 7.1 ( 7.2) 64.9 63.9 63.1 63.2 62.5 I 1 7.1 7.0 7.2 6.8 6*5 61.7 60,8 60.8 610.1 I 6.7 6.7 7.4 7.6 622 I 7.2 7.4 1 II I NOV.-MEC. I (6) I OTAR QTR. OTR. QTR, MONTHLY II 6.6 6.0 ( *4.8 I (5) (61 II PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH QUARTERLY --------- I NONDEPOSIT I SOURCES OF I FUNDS - - - - - - - - -- MONWTLY LEVELS-SMILLIONSI 1973--OCT NOV. DEC* TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS OTHER I I TOTAL I THAN CO S I CD S 26.4. 263.6 265.4 262.1 264. 266. 2670, I F I I 267.6 265. 266,4 266.n F I 1 ----------------------- SSSI 555.1 555.1 558.0 556.0 559,.6 561.5 562.9 562,9 561.4 t 1 II I II II IF 1 IF II II (I )i 11 II II 446.8 444.3 563.2 562.5 I I 59 6.9 7.5 6.8 5.3 6.4.7 4.S 6. 446.4 446,6 446.5 1 II 446.8 1 ',1 I II 1 II 6.5 5.7 5. 5.5 1.7 2.4 (9.1) I ( 5.7) I 355.3 355.4 359.6 356.5 357.? I ! ! I 1 I F I 356.8 356.7 356.2 I 357.1 i 1 3S7.7 358.7 J 1 F F I 206.6 I1 6, ( tf-----------0------------------ NOTE, DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHSEES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. P - PRELIMINARY PE - PARTIALLY ESTIMATED 1973 STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR) DECEMBER 14, 1973 TABLE 3 RESERVE EFFECTS OF OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS (Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) srket. Open Bills & Accept. (1) tonthly 1973 -- May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. -506 649 1,073 -753 -494 1,972 -1,008 Coupon Isapes tot Agency Issues 1/ RP's Net 3/ . Da aily Average Reserve Effect 2/ Total a Member Bank Borrowing Open Market Operetions (7) 45 -470 311 -304 -133 373 66 105 1,185 557 418 550 200 175 795 680 475 1,005 860 475 -293 850 -230 -998 389 -5 280 297 -208 -176 593 -157 -77 304 13 -1,470 1,085 2,416 -915 7 2,440 -1,307 1,437 -1.450 2,090 -818 -583 1,985 66 1 263 93 -282 -394 -1,392 1,084 -8O0 978 1,150 -668 1,880 -5,059 5,238 383 1,019 1,491 -559 632 351 -95 -670 -168 -182 743 -457 -228 27 533 -21 209 168 -20 -30 172 71 20 Veetily 1973 -- ----- 152 -- 1,567 -5,668 4,648 -71 716 -418 -303 3 13 --499 34 *-50 20 -2,811 2,571 907 -1,522 -3,229 2,268 1,458 -1,454 -326 -848 2,562 -827 -285 351 48 -281 288 738 -2,422 420 -78 122 24 -226 -245 119 164 -462 -304 - 33 --- --84 593 -1,393 288 -1,510 710 -824 189 -175 -414 382 77 -113 408p -504 3 10 17 24 31 313 589 590 302 303 Nov. 7 14 21 28 Dec. 5 12 Oct. 19 26 .. . .- __ _ r ,= - .. . . .. . .. . .. .. .. . Represents change in Systems parttoiio trom ena-or- perio to ena-or-perlao; includes reoeTnptions in regutar ULit au.i.ons. Represents change in daily average level from preceding period. Ihcludes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's. Sumn f changes ih vault cash, currency Lt circultion, Treasury operations, F.1. float, gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts. Reserves to support private honbanfk deposits. Target change for November and December reflects the target adopted at the November 20, 1973 FOMC fieetihg. target change for previous moftha reflects the bluebook patterhs that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during the month. * Thr lcl)r effect of special certificate (i.e., borrowing by Treasury from F.R.). T (11) -942 -1,148 -143 531 295 -902 (4) , available res. 5/ Iavailable (6)+(7)+(8)-(9) 5/ reaseyes 5/ (10) (6) (3) (9) (8) (5) (2) In resetve categries req. res. against U.s.G. and interb. Other 4/ Factors SSTRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL DECEMBER 14, 1973 TABLE (FR) 4 SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS Millions of dollars Dealer Dsei ( p*9ilonio Period " Bils (1) 1972 -- eoaler Poamions ____ Coup on (2) ssues Member Bonk Reserves Positions __ Coporae uondi (3) ____________________..__________ Municipal Bondp (4) I Borrowing at FRB**' Kcesa** Reserves (5) Se a na l (7) Total1 (6) Basic Reserve 8 New Vork' Y (8) eficic Sfthera (9) Q 383 40 796 -13) 1,223 12 -5,635 -1,6J8 -5,720 -1,919 1,299 -301 197 0 384 36 63L -240 2,561 688 -5,243 -1,8J3 -8,864 -4,048 3,096 3,510 1,039 953 84 58 191 291 314 219 606 1,049 -4,561 -4,977 -3,622 -4,958 1973 -- Jan. Feb. Mar. 3,407 2,132 2,490 720 562 - 50 27 77 24 177 123 125 289 207 177 1,161 1,594 1,825 -4,550 -4,187 -4,273 -5,469 -5,436 -5,847 Apr. Kay June 2,457 1,894 2,281 106 421 562 12 66 33 60 151 120 255 161 234 1,688 L,843 1,851 3 30 75 -3,293 -3,019 -3,507 -6,577 -5,872 -6,443 July Aug. Sept. 1,425 1,690 2,745 265 39 395 24 0 6 139 70 80 285 177 216 1,953 2,165 1,801 155 163 148 '2,460 -2,689 '3,173 -6,106 -4,949 -5,355 Qcc. Nov. 2,565 *2,804 484 *793 44 90 226 148 227 170p 1,476 1,393p 126 4 8 p -3,814 -4,469 -6,090 3 10 17 24 31 2,124 2,743 2,372 2,640 2,823 462 447 416 462 629 60 15 117 18 30 177 55 189 185 452 400 -91 370 131 1,519 1,351 1,169 1,912 1,455 144 131 120 125 119 -2,910 -3,526 "4,614 -3,906 -3,591 -4,612 -6,593 -6,669 -5,877 -5,773 7 14 21 28 2,973 2,975 *2,727 *2,357 1,299 859 * 470 * 644 2 75 86 197 154 167 104 168 265 1,170 1,521 1,569p 2 .188p 93 80 85p 84p -5,168 -5,056 -4,157 -3,756 -6,867 -8,572 -8,757 -8,199 5 12 19 26 *3,090 *3,737 * * 100 8 1 0p 275 225p 6p - 40p 57p 45p r ,628p 5,023p Righ Low 4,291 1,916 1,585 -93 235 1973 -- High Low 3,737 897 1972 -- Rov. Dec. 1973 -- Oct. Nov. Dec. Bto: 746 910 34 163 3 36p 17p 37 4 7 l, 7 p 3 1, 02p 3 -8,186 6 -0,8 4p -0,523p Trading positiois, which eiclude Treaeury bills financed by repurciaee agreeu&i aie oo a comni ien' basis. Cowvernmien security dealer rading daiYstin Other security dealer positions are debt isaues over the near-erm. are indicators of dealer holdiiys available for ale maturing in 16 days or Ioe, borrowing at Federal Reserve less net Federal funds the basic reserve deficit is excess reserves les still in syndicate, excluding crad4ng positions. purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate which are Friday figurea. * STRICTLY COIpENTIA ** Beginning with January 1973, monthly averages for exSqas reserves an birrqwtuiu are weighted averages of cateiment week figqea. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) DECEMBER 14, 1973 TABLE 5 SELECTED INTEREST RATES Per Cent Treasury Bil!s Period Federal Funds (1) 90-Iay (2) l-year. (3) SS.hort rm . 90-119 bay Commercial CD's New Issue-NYC Pappr (4) 60-89 Day , (5) ., 90-119 Day , (6) 1 ..Long-Term .. aaUtilit .. 1 Recently Municipal New Issue (7) Offered (8) . ... U.S. Government (10-yr Constant FNA Auction Bond Buyer (9) Maturity) (10) Yie.ld (11) ligh Low 5.38 3.18 5.13 3.03 5.52 3.60 5.50 3.75 5.38 3.13 5.50 3.50 7.60 6,99 7.46 7.12 5.54 4.96 6.58 5.87 7.72 7.54 1973 -- Ili h Low 10.84 5.61 8.95 5.15 8.43 5.42 10.50 5.63 10.50 5.38 10.75 5.50 8.52 7.29 8 30 7.26 5.59 4.99 7.54 6.42 9.37 7.69 1972 -- Nov. Pec 5.06 5.33 4.78 5.07 5.20 5.28 5.18 5.40 5.00 5.19 5.13 5.38 7.09 7.15 7.18 7.18 5.02 5.05 6.28 6.36 7.71 7.68 1973 -- Jan Teb. Mar 5.94 6.58 7.09 5.41 5.60 6.09 5.58 5.93 6.53 5.76 6. 7 6.76 5.61 6.16 6.78 5.75 6.28 6.75 7.38 7.40 7.49 7.35 7,41 7,51 5.05 5.13 5.29 6.46 6.64 6.71 7.69 7.72 7.78 Apr. May Tune 7.12 7.84 8.49 6.26 6.36 7.19 6.51 6.63 7.05 7.13 7.26 8.00 7.06 7.44 7.98 6.75 7.41 8.13 7.48 7.51 7.64 7.48 7.50 7.64 5.15 5.15 5.18 6.67 6.85 6.90 7.89 7.98 8.07 T7l0y Aug. prpt. 10.60 10.50 10.78 8.01 8 67 8.29 7.97 8.32 8.07 9,26 10.26 10.31 9.09 10.25 10.31 9.19 10.40 10.50 8.01 8.36 7.88 7.97 8.22 7.99 5.40 5.48 5.10 7.13 7.40 7.09 8.46 8.83 9.32 Oct. Nov. 10.01 10.03 7.22 7.83 7.17 7.40 9.14 9.1t 9.15 9.06 9.08 8.91 7.90 7.89 7.94 7.94 5.05 5.18 6.79 6.73 9.01 8.84 1971 -- Oct. 1 10 17 24 31 10.72 9 87 10.07 9.98 9.90 7.22 7.30 7.19 7.06 7.20 7.51 7.35 7.27 6.91 6.88 9.63 9.53 9.33 9.06 8.45 9.75 9.50 9.25 8.75 8.50 9,50 9.38 9.25 8.75 8.50 7.75 7.96 7.99 7.97 7.76 7.90 7.88 7,98 7.98 7.97 5.04 4.99 5.05 5.12 5.17 6.89 6.77 6.80 6.75 6.72 9.11 Nov. 7 14 72 28 9.71 10.03 10.23 10.09 7.84 8.34 7.64 7.67 7.30 7.54 7,47 7.32 8.78 9.03 9.28 9.25 8,75 9,00 9.25 9.25 8.50 8.88 9.13 9.13 8.00 7.98 7.86 7.85 8.02 7.99 7.85 7.87 5.19 5.27 5.13 5.15 6.76 6.76 6.71 6.70 fec. 5 12 19 26 10.17 10.04 7.36 7.55 7.31 7.27 9.33 9.48 9.50 9.50 9.25 9.13 8.66 8,09 7.98 7.97 5.15 5.06 6.72 6 .70 p 1972 -- Notes: 8.97 8.94 8.87 8.81 -- For columnm 7, 8 and 10 Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement wek averages of daily data. Columns 5 anT 6 are oneday Wdeday quote. Column 9 is a one-day quote for Thursday following the end of the weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. auction yield is the the statement week. Column 11 gives FNM auctio6 data for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The FN average yield in the bi-weekly auction for phort-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgagee. CONFIDENTIAL (FR) December 14,1973 Appendix Table I RESERVES VARIABLES MONETARY AND Money Stock M suras Reserves Perid Total (-- -(7) tnborryewd - Available to Support Pvt. Deposits - f - ' N 1 T - M 2 (5 ->T M 3 Bank .rittt Adjusted Credit Proxy 1 ((mt M0ahurea Total 2 Loans and Investment -) - Total Tim '"1- ,ther, Time Other than CD's Thrift Institution Deposits " CD's (Mz Nondeposlt Funds tT1O IT S. Gov't Detnand (Dollai Change in Billions) (Per Cent Annual Rates of Growth) Annually. +7.8 +9.3 +7.5 -1.1 +6.1 +7.2 410.6 +5.3 -2.8 49.6 48.1 -47.1 falf 1971 Half 1971 Ralf 1972 Half 1972 +9.7 4 .4 +11.7 -9.0 49.6 46.3 +12.1 +2.0 410.7 +3.4 +8.6 +10.4 1st Ialf 1973 47.4 44.9 +11.4 46.0 3rd Qtr, 1971 4th Orr. 1971 +6.5 42.3 46 6 +6.0 +3.2 +3.6 44.1 +1.9 1t Otr, 2nd Jtr 3rd Otr 4ttiOtr 1972 1972 1972 1972 +10.4 412.6 +10.7 43,6 -6.8 44.8 +10.4. +6.6 +9.9 +10.6 tat 0tr 2nd Qtr. 3rd Otr. 1973 1973 1973 +8.8 +5.8 410 3 -7.1 +17.3 +10.5 +12.0 +13.6 +1.7 +10.3 +0.3 *5.7 +9.5 45.1 +21 R -5 2 +14.5 422.1 +8.8 +26 7 -5 7 + 11.0 +21.7 +9.4 +8.0 +2.9 4+0.7 -6 1 +13 5 49 8 -10.9 -11.0 +6.5 +13.4 +6 8 +3.9 49.0 +6.9 +9.7 +12.9 +3.2 +70.8 +1.0 414 7 411.5 +8 0 44 0 +6.4 +12.7 44.6 47.2 7 2 45.2 +13.3 +31.3 -41.1 -10.5 426.1 41 1 424.0 -44 9 -30 3 +22.8 +19.3 -2 0 +22.8 -0 5 -4.7 +13.4 +9.6 +9.4 +16.6 +6.1 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Ist 2nd 1st 2fid 1972 1973 dt - Jann. Feb. ar. Apr May. Tune Tuly Aug. qept. Oct. Nov. 4ee. Ja,. Feb. 4ar. Apr. $lay June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nlv.p 414.2 46.4 *4,2 + 6 -1 9 +18.7 411.4 +12.5 435.8 -22,1 +13.3 -12 3 44.4 ,0.6 +269 -5 1 49.7 +14.1 -8 1 413.1 412.4 -r--mi-na-y +8.1 -1 7 +8.6 +7.2 +9.7 +7.7 +18.6 4.4 +13.1 440.9 -9 6 +8 3 +2.9 +10,9 42.9 +8.1 +11.2 +14.6 +11.5 -4.8 +17.9 +18.2 +15.5 +11.2 +1.4 411.1 +16.7 +13.3 46.3 +3.6 47.1 +17,4 417.0 +2.9 -12.4 +14.4 47.7 +10.1 +2 6 +13.0 -8 4 -7.6 +0.4 -6,6 +0.5 -7.1 -0.4 -0.3 +0.6 -1 4 +1.1 -+0.4 +11 4 +10.8 +13.5 +13.0 +9.5 +0.4 +B 2 +9 4 +11.6 +10.1 +14.9 +4 0 +7.4 +7.7 +10,8 +8.5 +10.3 +16.6 49.8 +13.0 +12.1 +10.1 48.4 411.4 411.1 +12.1 49.7 +13.6 +14.7 +21.6 +13.4 +15.4 +14 5 +20.0 +12.1 +13 7 +12.1 +19.3 +14.3 +7.7 +9.1 +13.8 +16.6 +20.0 +9.2 411.6 +18.9 +1.2 -1.4 +6 0 +8.7 +8 9 +10 5 +6.7 +9.8 48.5 +10.6 +9,8 +16 6 +8.0 +15.9 +14.5 +13.5 +1.7 +1.8 -0.4 +1.1 9.2 +12.7 +6.1 +8.5 48 2 +10.3 6 +10.2 48 +1 . 9 +10 7 412.4 +11.5 +11.0 +11.5 +9. +12.1 415.7 +11.1 4+13.0 +15.8 +15 4 414.8 +14.0 +14.4 16,1 +10.8 +12.3 +11 6 +19.1 +14.7 +16.2 +13.9 +0 8 +3 7 +2.4 +3.3 -0.3 -+0.4 +0.3 -0.4 +0.5 -1.1 41.4 48 6 +9.4 +4 4 415 0 +12,7 +10 5 419.9 +12.7 +11 4 423.1 +16.0 +13.6 +9 5 +8.7 +9.80 +13.6 +9.4 +3.1 +11.7 47.1 4.7 +0.5 +0.7 +1 6 40.9 -2.4 -- +10 4 +15.1 +12.4 +7 9 4 3 *9.2 +17.5 49 1 48 7 410 1 47 9 417 2 +13.2 +9 2 +7 7 +16.2 417,7 415 6 +6.6 410,0 +6 9 +9 5 '11,9 410 1 411 4 +15.3 +17.7 416 7 411.6 +12.8 +18 2 +12.9 +13 6 +15 9 412 0 +11.5 +14.2 419.2 +15 4 413.2 +7.8 +13 0 411 4 +12.3 +14.0 410.2 +12.8 +10.4 +18 9 +20.0 +17 4 +15 8 +13.4 414 5 417 0 415 5 +15.7 415.5 413 2 +12.7 +0.1 +0.6 40.1 -0.1 +1.5 +1.5 -0.1 -0 3 +0.8 +0.8 +0.8 +0.2 +1.2 +1.9 +0.1 +0.3 -0 1 +0 2 -40 1 +0.2 -1.7 +1.1 +1.1 +6.7 -1 3 -1.0 -0.7 +0.6 +1.2 40.6 -0.4 +6 4 45. 4-4,7 +8.1 +9,8 410.4 45 1 +6 4 +3.0 +10 4 +11 6 +9,. 4±0.0 +6.9 P.4 49.1 4'.6 +5.6 -+4.? 43.2 +9.1 +9.9 +8.3 417 8 +15.8 +14.4 +10 2 +9.4 +7.8 +1.2 +4.5 +6.1 +3.8 +3.1 +0.3 +2.4 +2.5 -0.2 -3 4 -2 3 +0.1 +3.6 +2.6 +6.0 48.4 46.6 +8.3 -0.5 +7.5 +10.7 +12.4 450 -1.4 -2 1 +4.6 +10.9 48.0 416.8 +14.2 +10 7 410.1 411.1 +13.9 411.6 411.2 412.0 +9.8 12.4 416 4 +19,7 +13.1 +12.1 +11.1 +8.8 +17.0 +5 4 *1.A 401 413.9 +17.3 411.4 415 2 +6.5 +9.9 +14 4 414 2 411.2 +21.4 +14 3 +21.7 +17.2 +13 1 +16.6 48.2 +13.3 +16.7 4 1 +6.7 +5 0 417.1 411.2 +15.7 +21.6 +30.9 +21.0 +18.2 48.1 412.6 +20 4 +6 8 +1 7 +2 4 +17.9 +5.7 +9.6 +8.7 +9.1 +8.1 +5.5 +14.0 +9.6 +16.2 +12 3 417.3 +15.4 410.8 +6.5 -+2.7 +6 1 +6.8 4-4.3 +3 4 44.4 +5.7 41.1 -0.3 +0.4 - -0.2 +0.2 40.7 - -- +0.4 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 +0.9 +0.6 +0.1 -0 6 +0.2 +0.6 +6.1 40.3 -1 7 -1.2 +0 5 -1 7 +0.8 +0.9 +1 5 -0 7 n Furodallar hbrrowtngs are included heglhnfng October 16, 1969. and requiremaets on bank-related cortnterial paper are included beginning October 1, lF:. RIleNerve Reqirementos t1Grfiwthrates are based on eqtfmattedmonthly average levels derived by averaging end of currrentmonth and end of previous month reported data Onts are preltminary and tmaybe subject to minor changes. 7/ Seres rev-sed to Incorporate new seasonal factors and Tune 30. 1973, benchmark adltutments 1970. Appendix Table II RESERVES VARIABLES MONETARY AND (Seasonally adjusted, RESERVES No- Totucal (1) borrowed (2) Support Pvt, Dpoisiea () Total (4) I Pvt. Oep. (5) 2 (6) OTHER BANK CREDIT MEASURES MONEY STOCK MEASURES Available to Period CONFIDENTIAL December 14, billions of dollars) "3 (7) Adjusted Credit Frjy (8) 1 Total 1 Loans and Total Time Invesmeots (10) (9) Time Other than CD's (11) Thrift Inatitutionl DeposIta (12) CD'a (13) (FR) 1973 I tonDeposits Funds (14) ARNUALLY. sec. 1969 Dec, 1970 Oec. 1971 27,959 29,121 31,209 26,699 28,727 31,060 25,339 26,975 28,907 208.8 221.3 236.0 162.7 172,2 183.4 392.3 425.2 473.8 594.0 641.3 727.7 307.7 332.9 364.3 405.6 438.5 487.6 194.4 229.2 270.9 183.5 203.9 237.9 201.7 216.1 253.8 10.9 25.3 33.0 1972--July Aug. Sept. 33,171 33,381 33,327 33,018 33,038 32,870 30,317 30,562 30,890 247.7 248.6 250.1 193.1 193.8 194.9 504.5 508.4 512.1 784.0 791,6 799.0 388.3 391,4 394,5 525.1 531.4 537.7 295.0 298,9 301.9 256.8 259.8 262.0 279.6 283,2 286.9 38.3 39.1 39.8 3.9 4.2 4.1 Oct. Mov. Dec. 33,832 31.883 31,309 33,295 31,297 30,063 30,973 29,496 28,862 251.6 252.7 255.5 195.9 196.5 198.7 516.4 519.8 525.1 807.0 813.6 822.0 398.4 401.9 406.4 542. 552.4 559.0 304.8 308.4 312.8 264.8 267.1 269.6 290.6 293.8 296.9 40.0 41.2 43.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 1973--Jan. Feb. Mar. 32,242 31,649 31,999 30,848 29,787 29,526 29,411 29,296 29,622 255.4 256.7 256.6 198.4 199.3 198.7 527.9 530.5 532.6 828.7 834.9 839,7 409.2 414.8 421.6 567.3 578.5 586.8 316.9 322.6 330.9 272.5 273.8 276.0 300.8 304.4 307.0 44.4 48.8 54.9 4.5 4.5 4.9 Apr. May June 32,326 32,445 32,460 30,167 30,195 30,800 29,860 30,095 30,511 358.2 260,5 263.2 199.5 201.6 203,9 536.2 540.6 545.3 845.6 852.0 859.4 426.2 430.5 434.5 593.2 601.4 605.5 336.7 341.8 344.1 278.0 280.1 282.0 309.4 311.4 314.2 58.7 61.7 62.0 5.1 5.4 5.6 July Aug. Sept. Oct. 33,569 33,898 34,145 34,971 32,332 31,996 32,604 33,553 31,324 31.961 32,311 32. 75 264.3 263, 9 263.4 264.4 204.9 204.2 203.3 204.0 547.6 550,5 552,3 557 ,1 863.5 866.5 868A8 815.4 437,7 443.9 445.9 446.5 612.2 620.7 622.8 626,3 347.7 353.6 355.6 356.1 283,3 286.6 288,9 292.8 315.9 315.9 316.6 318.2 64.5 67.0 66.8 63.4 6.5 7.1 7.3 6.9 Nov, p 34,-"' 33,513 32,540 266.8 205.9 562.5 882.6 446.1 628.9 356.8 295.8 .......... ? . .... 61.1 7.1 7 14 21 p 28 p 34,658 34,675 35,180 34,544 33,235 32,943 33,841 33,715 32,496 32,464 32,844 32,301 266.4 267.0 267.6 265.4 205.9 206,2 206.5 204.6 561.5 562,9 562.9 561.4 446,8 446.4 446.6 295.1 295.9 295,3 ' 5 p 34,954 33,164 32,729 266.6 205.8 563.2 446.8 Nov. Dec. 446.5 ii 356.8 i;::;::::::::::I;: 356.7 iili 357.1 ::.:::...:::::::: 356.2 iiiiiii!iiiii 357.7 iiiiiiii li ii 296.6 61.1 6.7 6.7 7,4 7.6 7.2 ::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::: Iil I. 33. 3 61.7 60.8 :: .'ii!........60.8 61.1 iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii i :::::: ::::: : ... 0 20.0 11.6 4.0 ::::::::::::::: ::::::: iiiiiiiii i 3jj ... iiiiiii ll ii ! iili !:iii ii!i ; I """""""""'""'" p - Preliinary NOT1B Reserve requirements on Eurodollar borrowings are included beginning October 16, 1969, and requirements on bank-related commeecial paper are included beginning October 1, 1970. Adjusted credit proxy includes mainly total member bank deppsita subject to reserve requirements, bank-related commercial paper and Eurodollar borrowings of U.S. banks. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks. Monthly data are daily averages except for nonbank coumercial paper figures which are for last day of month, Weekly data are not available for N, total loans and investments and thrift institution deposits. Estimated monthly average Levels derived by averaging end of current month and en4 of prevlous month reported data. / Series revised to lncorporate new seasonal factors and June 30, 1973, benchmark adjustmaeul, Data are preliminary and may be subject to minor changes. U.S. t Demand (15) Gov' Appendix Table III 1/ Growth Rate in Money Supply (Per cent change at an annual rate) M3 M 1972 I II 9.2 (9.0) (5.3) 6.1 (6.2) (8.2) 1973 I II III 5.3 8.4 M Q 11.1 M 14.9 13.2 (11.0) (14.6) (13.2) 8.5 (8.9) 10.0 (9.8) 10.7 (10.9) 12.1 (12.0) 10.3 12.4 (12.8) 12.2 <12.6) 11.5 11.4 (11.9) (11.9) 8.6 10.0 (10.6) 8.2 8.0 (8.2) 10.3 (10.8) (10.8) 8.6 (9.9) 7.1 (8.4) 10.2 (10.8) 9.5 (10.2) 1.7 (3.6) 4.7 (7.0) 5.7 (6.5) 10.3 (11.8) 6.9 (7.5) 0.3 (0.5) 5.1 (6.1) 7.7 (8.6) (9.0) (11.3) 7.8 (8.6) (10.6) 8.5 (9.1) 5.1 (6.0) 7.0 (8.5) 4.4 (5.0) 6.6 (7.5) 9.5 9.4 M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in the final months of the quarters. Q = Annual rates calculated from average levels in all three months of the quarters. 1/ Q 12.7 (12.3) (8.7) III IV q Figures in parentheses are growth rates based on series revised for benchmark and seasonal factor changes. Appendix Table IV Comparison of old and Revised M1 and M2 Growth Rates M1 M2 Old Revised Old 6.6 8.3 4.6 6.3 8.7 5.7 11.4 10.8 7.5 11.2 11.1 8.5 1971 1st Half 10.1 9.9 14.9 14.8 2nd Half 3.0 2.6 7.4 7.1 1972 1st Half 2nd Half 7.7 8.5 7.7 9.4 10.8 10.3 10.7 11.0 1973 1st Half 2nd Half (est) 6.0 3.0 7.7 3.5 7.7 7.0 I 9.2 9.0 12.7 II 6.1 6.2 8.5 8.9 III IV 8.2 8.6 8.7 9.9 10.3 10.2 10.8 10.8 Revised Annual: 1971 1972 1973 (est) Half year: 9.0 7.7 Quarterly: 1972 1973 I 12.3 1.7 3.6 5.7 6.5 10.3 11.8 9.5 11.3 0.3 5.8 0.5 6.5 5.1 8.8 6.0 9.3 -0.5 6.1 -0.5 4.7 7.0 -0.9 6.4 5.9 4.7 8.7 6.8 3.8 April May 7.5 10.7 6.5 13.4 8.1 9.8 8.3 12.3 June 12.4 15.1 10.4 13.0 July 5.0 4.5 5.1 6.6 August -1.8 0.4 6.4 7.2 September -2.3 -3.6 3.9 4.1 4.6 6.3 10.4 11.2 10.9 1.8 10.8 2.2 11.6 4.1 11.5 4.9 II III IV (est) Monthly: 1973 January February March October November December (est)
@FedFRASER