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Strictly Confidential (FR)

Class I FOMC

April 16,

1976

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

Prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
By the staff

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

April 16,

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS I - FOMC

1976

MONETARY AGGREGATES AND

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS
Recent developments

(1) M1 increased at about a 6½ per cent annual rate during March.
With incoming data for early April showing further strength, growth for
March and April combined now appears to be running at about a 7¼ per cent
annual rate, as compared with the 6 per cent mid-point of the Committee's
range.

Growth in M 2 over the March-April period is now projected at nearly

a 10 per cent annual rate, also above the mid-point of the Committee's
range.

Inflows to savings accounts at banks, although below the extra-

ordinary February pace, have remained quite strong.
nonbank thrift institutions

Deposit growth at

also has been well maintained, with March

expansion at S&L's and savings banks combined running close to a 15 per
cent annual rate.
Growth in Monetary Aggregates and RPD's
over March-April Period
Reserve and monetary aggregates

(Growth at SAAR, in per cent)

Ranges

Latest Estimates

M1

4 to 8

7.3

M
2

7 to 11

9.9

RPD

-2 to 2

Avg. for statement

Memo:

Federal funds rate
(per cent per annum)

0.0

4¼ to 5¼

week ending
March 24
31
April 7
14

4.79
4.84
4.73
4.78

(2)

During the intermeeting period, estimates of growth in M 1

and M2 for March-April fluctuated around the mid-point of the FOMC's ranges,
and the Desk continued to aim for reserve availability consistent with
Federal funds trading around 4¾ per cent.

In the four statement weeks since

the March meeting, excess reserves and member bank borrowing have averaged
$210 million and $50 million, respectively, both somewhat below their recent
levels.

Nonborrowed reserves over the March-April period have shown little

net change, as reserves to support M1 and M2 continued to be released by
declines in CD's; in addition, more of the money growth than expected took
the form of currency, which requires no reserves.
(3)

With the funds rate remaining stable, short-term interest

rates have dropped back to levels reached in mid-January, when the funds
rate first moved down into the 4¾ per cent range.

These declines, together

with the relatively favorable performance of the wholesale and consumer
price indexes, have contributed to a further strengthening of investor
demands for longer-term investments.

Since the last FOMC meeting, bond

yields have declined another 15 to 40 basis points despite the heavy recent
volume of new issues.

In mortgage markets, rates have declined 5-10 basis

points further.
(4) The table on the following page shows (in percentage annual
rates of change) selected monetary and financial flows over various time
periods.

Past
Six
Months
Mar. '76
over
Sept,'75

Past
Three
Months
Mar. '76
over
Dec. '75

Past
Month
Mar. '76
over
Feb. '76

-,4

-2.4

-6.2

-1,8

9.2

1.3

-0.5

-5.4

-0.9

7.4

-1.1

-2.8

-5.9

-3.7

4.7

4.2

3.3

4.6

6.5

7.2

8,3

8,8

11.1

8.5

6.8

11.2

10.8

12.4

10.8

M4 (M2 plus CD's)

10.6

6.3

6.3

4.6

4.0

M 5 (M3 plus CD's)

9.0

9.6

9.0

8.2

7.9

10.2

3.9

4.3

1.6

1,2

9.2

4.3

5,2

7.3

8.2

2.2

-.6

-1.0

-3.3

-2.3

Calendar
Year

Calendar
Year

1974

1975

Total reserves

7.1

Nonborrowed reserves
Reserves available to support
private nonbank deposits
Concepts of Money
M1

(currency plus demand
deposits) 1/

M 2 (M1 plus time deposits
at commercial banks
other than large
CD's)
M3 (M2 plus deposits at

thrift institutions)

Bank Credit
Total member bank deposits
(bank credit proxy adj.)
Loans and investments of
commercial banks 21
Short-term Market Paper
(Monthly average change in
billions)
Large CD's

-0.1
0.3
-0.1
-.2
.4
Nonbank commercial paper
I/ Other than interbank and U.S. Government.
if Based on month-end figures. Includes loans sold to affiliates and branches.
NOTE: All items are based on averages of daily figures, except for data on total
loans and investments of commercial banks, commercial paper, and thrift institutions--which are derived from either end-of-month or last Wednesday-of-month
figures. Growth rates for reserve measures in this and subsequent tables are
adjusted to remove the effect of discontinuities from breaks in the series when
reserve requirements are changed.

Prospective developments
(5)

Alternative longer-run growth ranges for the monetary

aggregates are shown below for Committee consideration.
one year period from QI '76 to QI '77.

They pertain to the

The ranges shown under alternative B

are the same as those adopted in January for the QIV '75-QIV '76 period.

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

M1

5½-8½

4½-7½

3½-6½

M2

9-12

7¾-10¾

6-9

M3

10-13

9-12

7½-10½

6-9

5-8

Proxy
(6)

7-10

In considering these alternative longer-run targets, the

Committee may be interested in their relationship to the QIV '76 levels for
the monetary aggregates that were implied by the mid-points of the ranges
adopted in January.

From the fourth quarter of '75 to first quarter of '76,

M2 and M 3 expanded at annual rates very near the mid-points of the ranges
adopted previously (and shown above under alternative B); thus, continuation
of growth near these rates would be associated with QIV '76 levels close to
those implied by the earlier targets.

However, M1 growth from the fourth

to first quarter--at a 2.9 per cent annual rate--was well below both the
lower limit of the longer-run range and the 6 per cent mid-point of
that range.

To achieve the level in QIV '76 implied by the mid-point of the

earlier range, M1 would have to grow at almost a 7 per cent annual rate over
the last three quarters of this year.

Assuming M1 growth returns to a 6 per

cent annual rate in the first quarter of 1977, this would imply a growth rate

-4aAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates
__
Alt. A

1976

1977

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

March
April
May

298.4
300.5
302.2

298.4
300.4

302.0

298.4
300.3
301.8

681.7
688.4
694.5

681.7
688.1
693.9

681.7
687.9
693.3

1125.6
1138.0
1150.1

1125.6
1137.6
1148.9

1125.6
1137.2
1147,8

QI
QII
QIII

296.8
302.2
307.3
312.5

296.8
302.0
306.5
310.5

296.8
301.8
305.7
308.6

675.9
694.5
712.3
729.5

675.9
693.8
709.6
722.6

675.9
693.3
707.4
717.9

1114.5
1149.9
1183.6
1215,1

1114.5
1148.7
1178.7
1206.1

1114.5

QIV

1976

Alt. B

QI

317.7

314.5

311.5

745.2

735.3

727.9

1242.8

1231.5

1214.8

1147.6
1174.9
1196.0

Growth Rates
Monthly:

8.4
6.8

8.0
6.4

7.6
6.0

11.8
10.6

11.3
10.1

10.9
9.4

13.2
12.8

12.8
11.9

12.4
11,2

7.3
6.8
6.8
6.7

7.0
6.0
5.2
5.2

6.7
5.2
3.8
3.8

11.0

10.6

9.1
7.3
7.0

10.3
8.1
5.9
5.6

12.7
11.7
10.6
9.1

12.3
10.4
9.3
8.4

11.9
9.5
7.2
6.3

Semi-annual
QI '76-QIII '76
QIII '76-QI '77

7.1
6.8

6.5
5.2

6.0
3.8

10.8

10.0
7,2

9.3
5.8

12.4
10.0

11.5
8.9

10.8

Annual
QIV '75-QIV '76
QI '76-QI '77

6.0
7.0

5.4
6.0

4.7
5.0

10.5
10.2

9.5
8.8

8.7
7.7

12.0
11.5

11.2
10.5

10.3
9.0

1976

April
May

Quarterly Average:
1976

QII
QIII

QIV
1977

QI

10.3

9.7
8,6

9.2

6.8

-4bAlternative Levels and Growth Rates for Key Monetary Aggregates

(cont'd)
Credit Proxy

I

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Alt, A

Alt. B

Alt. C

1976

March
April
May

754.8
761.1
767.3

754.8
760.8
766.9

754.8
760.7
766.5

1198.7
1210.7
1222.8

1198.7
1210.3
1221.9

1198,7
1210.0
1221.0

516.4
517.9
521.9

516.4
517.8
521.7

516,4
517.6
521.5

1976

QI
QII
QIII
QIV

751.8
767.2
785.2
805.5

751.8
766.8
783.8
800,3

751.8
766.5
781.8
795.6

1190.4
1222.6
1256.5
1291.1

1190.4
1221.7
1252.9
1283.8

1190.4
1220,8
1249.2
1273.6

515.5
521.8
534.0
547.2

515.5
521.6
533.4
544.1

515.5
521.4
532.1
541.8

QI

824.7

816,8

809.0

1322.3

1311.1

1295.8

559.3

554.2

549.0

3.3
9.0

2.8
9.0

1977

Growth Rates
Monthly:
1976

April
May

12.0
12.0

11.6
11.5

11.3

9.2

7.8
8.0
7.1
6.7

10.8
11.1
11.0
9.7

10.5

9.5

8.0
8.9
8.4
8.2

10.2
9.9
8.5

10.2
9.3
7.8
7.0

4.9
9.4
9.9
8.8

4.7
9.0
8.0
7.4

4.6
8.2
7.3
5.3

8.9
10.1

8.5
8.4

8.0
7.0

11.1
10.5

10.5
9.3

9.9
7.5

7.2
9.5

6.9
7.8

6.4
6.4

8.5
9.7

7.8
8.6

7.2
7.6

10.7

10.1
10.1

9.2
8.9

6.8
8.5

6.2
7.5

5.8
6.5

10.0

9.4

9.8

10.9

Quarterly Averages:

1976
1977

QII
QIII
QIV
QI

Semi-annual
QI '76-QIII '76
QIII '76-QI '77

Annual
QIV '75-QIV '76
QI '76-QI '77

8.2
9.4
10.3

11.1

for the new one-year target period QI '76-QI '77 of about 6¾ per cent--well
within the ranges of alternatives A and B and a shade above the upper limit

of alternative C.
(7)

Short-run operating strategies roughly corresponding to the

longer-run ranges are suggested below:

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

Ranges for April-May 1/

M
1

5½-9½

5-9

4½-8½

M2

9½-13½

8½-12½

8-12

Federal funds rate
(intermeeting range)

3¾-4¾

4¼-¼

4¾-5¾

(8) The Federal funds rate range of alternative B is centered
on the recently prevailing 4¾ per cent level.

Given the bulge in M1 in

early April, we expect that such a funds rate would be accompanied by M1
growth in a 5-9 per cent, annual rate, range over the April-May period.
With expansion in time and savings deposits other than large CD's remaining
relatively strong, M2 growth over the same period is likely to be in an
8½-12½ per cent annual rate range.
(9) M1 growth has been generally strengthening in recent months.
Part of the expansion in recent weeks may be attributable to declining
Treasury deposits, but on balance it seems likely that a somewhat more
typical relationship between M1 and GNP is being re-established.

We would

expect M1 to grow at about a 7 per cent annual rate from the first to second
quarter. The staff expects that interest rates will soon have to begin
1/ Reserve aggregates thought to be consistent with these ranges are
shown in appendix table V.

rising if growth over the one-year QI '76-QI '77 period is to be constrained
to 6 per cent--the mid-point of the longer-run growth range of alternative B.
Our projected Federal funds rate patterns through the first quarter of 1977
for all alternatives are shown in appendix table IV.

Under alternative B,

the funds rate is expected to reach the 7 per cent level by early next
year.
(10)

If the funds rate stays around the mid-point of its

alternative B range over the next four weeks, short- and longer-term interest
rates are unlikely to change significantly.

On April 28, the Treasury will

be announcing its mid-May refunding of some $4 billion of publicly-held
maturing debt.

The Treasury may also raise about $1 -2 billion of new cash

at the same time.

It is possible that a longer-term bond as well as a note

in the 7-10 year maturity area may be included in the offering.

While the

volume of corporate and municipal bond offerings appears to be dropping
off from its exceptional March pace, the forward calendar remains high,
and substantial longer-term offerings by the Treasury could exert some
upward pressure on bond yields.
(11)

Alternative C contemplates a gradual tightening of the

money market over the next four weeks to the mid-point of a 4¾-5¾ per cent
funds rate range in the process of moving toward lower longer-run growth
rates for the aggregates. In the short-run, however, the impact on M1
and M 2 probably would be no more than minor because member banks would
respond to the reduced availability of nonborrowed reserves contemplated
under this alternative by increasing their borrowing.

It is possible,

though, that a substantial upward adjustment in the Treasury bill and other
short-term rates would occur in response to signs of a sustained upward
movement in the funds rate.

Under these conditions, if short-rates moved

well above the 5 per cent passbook ceiling rate, there could be sizable
outflows of interest-sensitive funds from savings accounts, particularly those
held by businesses and State and local governments.

This would tend to drop

the rate of growth in M2 toward the bottom of the indicated April-May range.
(12)

Under alternative C, we expect that interest rates would

have to rise considerably further to achieve a 5 per cent M1 growth from
QI '76 to QI '77.

By early 1977, the funds rate might be around 7¾ per

cent.
(13)

Under alternative A, the mid-point of the longer-run growth

target for M1 is 7 per cent.

In order to achieve this more rapid growth,

money market conditions would probably have to ease somewhat over the
next few weeks, and the funds rate would probably remain below 5 per
cent until well into the summer months.

Thereafter, however, interest

rates would need to rise, with the Federal funds rate probably reaching
the 6 per cent area in early 1977.

Given the expected pattern of market

interest rates, interest-bearing deposits would likely remain quite strong
into the third quarter, but inflows would begin to slow later on as rates
on market instruments became more attractive.
(14)

Over the period immediately ahead, internal funds available

to the business sector are expected to remain quite ample relative to

-8requirements generated by inventory and capital investment, so that little
pick-up in business short-term credit demands is anticipated.

As expenditures

continue to rise, though, businesses later this year are expected to turn
increasingly to commercial banks and the paper market for funds.

Under

alternatives A and B, banks are likely to have sufficient funds available
without reliance on significant increases in CD's.
C limited fund

But under alternative

flows by late this year could induce banks to rely

appreciably more on sales of CD's to satisfy credit demands.

Proposed directive
(15)

Presented below are four alternative formulations for the

operational paragraph of the directive.

The first three are couched in terms

of desired growth in monetary aggregates over the months ahead and are intended
to correspond to the similarly lettered policy alternatives discussed in the
preceding section.

The fourth alternative is proposed in the event that the

Committee wishes to formulate its instructions in terms of money market conditions and wishes to maintain the conditions now prevailing.

Since the

last meeting, exchange market conditions have tended to become stable,
although the pound and the lira remain subject to particular uncertainties.

Therefore, in all alternatives, we propose deleting the

specific reference to "the sensitive state of foreign exchange markets"
that was inserted at the last meeting, and restoring the previously longstanding reference to international financial markets.
Alternative "Monetary Aggregates" Proposals
Alternative A
To implement this policy, while taking account of developments
in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL:the sensitive
and
state of

foreign exchange

markets,] Committee seeks to achieve
the

moderate]
bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL:
SUBSTANTIAL growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead.

-10Alternative B
To implement this policy, while taking account of developments
and
in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL; the sensitive

state of foreign

exchange markets,] the Committee seeks to achieve

bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with moderate
growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead.
Alternative C
To implement this policy, while taking account of developments
and the sensitve
in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL;
state of foreign exchange markets,] the Committee seeks to achieve
moderate]
bank reserve and money market conditions consistent with [DEL:
MODEST growth in monetary aggregates over the period ahead.

'Money Market" Proposal
To implement this policy, while taking account of developments
and
in domestic AND INTERNATIONAL financial markets, [DEL: the sensitive
achieve]
markets,]
exchange the Committee seeks to [DEL:

of
state foreign

consistent
MAINTAIN PREVAILING bank reserve and money market conditions [DEL:
in
growth
moderate
with

monetary

aggregates] over the period ahead,

PROVIDED THAT MONETARY AGGREGATES APPEAR TO BE GROWING AT ABOUT THE
RATES CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CHART 1

CONFIDENTIAL
(FR)
CLASS II-FOMC
4/16/76

RESERVES AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
PRIVATE NONBANK DEPOSITS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1 35

D

S
1974

D

M

J
1975

S

D

M
1976

J

F

J

RPD series has been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios.

M

A

CHART 2

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS II-FOMC
4/16/76

MONETARY AGGREGATES
NARROW MONEY SUPPLY M1

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320

305

300

300

280

295

290

1974

1975

D

J
1975

F

M
1976

CHART 3

4/16/76

MONETARY AGGREGATES
ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

-540

-520

500

-480

I

!

i

I

RESERVES

I

I

I l

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
39

- 37

TOTAL

-

35

NONBORROWED
33

31

1974

1975

1976

Total and nonborrowed reserve series have been adjusted to remove discontinuities associated with changes in reserve requirement ratios.

CHART 4

MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS AND INTEREST RATES
MONEY MARKET CONDITIONS

PER CENT

INTEREST RATES Short-term
WEEKLY

PERCENT
10

INTEREST RATES
WEEKLY

AVERAGES

F.R. DISCOUNT
RATE

-

-

-

7

9

6

RATE

1 4

1975

1976

1975

1976

1975

1976

CONFIDENTIAL (F.R.)
CLASS II-FOMC

TABLE 1

BANK RESERVES

APRIL 16, 1976

(ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS)
REQUIRED RESERVES

AGGREGATE RESERVES

RSERVES AVAILABLE
RESERVES AVAILABLE

SEASONALLYADJUSTED
ASEASONALLY
ADJUSTED

dFOR
PRIVATE

FOR PRIVATE
NONBANK DEPOSITS

Period

Total

Nonborrowed

SA
SA

NSA
NSA

Reserves

Reserves

Total
Required

Private
Demand

Total Time
Deposits

Gov't. and
Interbank

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

MONTHLY LEVELS-$MILLIONS
32,100
31,849
31,752
131,847)

1976--JAN.
FEB.
MAR.
APR.
PERCENT

33.170
31,667
31,496
(31,952)

34,245
34,052
34,000
(34,026)

34, 1'7
33,971
33,946
(33,990)

34,005
33,833
33,776
(33,817)

19,732
19,715
19,t59
(19t,99)

12,126
11,915
11,869
(S11,939

2,145
2,203
2,24b
( 2.179)

ANNUAL GROWTH
QUARTERLY
1975--3RD OTR.
4TH QTR.
1976--IST QTR.

-1.5
0.4
-5.9

-0.8
1.4
-6.2

-2.8
4.5
-5.4

-0.7
0.5
-5.8

3.4
-3.4
-2.0

-

-0.8
-0.8
-3.4

0.1
0.6
-3.9

-1.9
2.7
-3.2

-0.1
-0.1
-3.6

6.2
-2.1
-1.0

-12.2
-0.6
-t.4

(

-8.4
-6.9
-0.9
1.6)

(

-9.3
-6.1
-2.0
1.5)

-1.5
-1.0
-5.4
2.4)

-7.'
-21.1
-4.6
(
7.1)

(

0.3)

(

-0.3)

-9.0
4.1

QUARTERLY-AV
1975--3RD OTR.
4TH QTR.
1976--1ST QTR.
MONTHLY
1976--JAN.
FEB.
MAR.
APR.

(

MAR.-APR.

-4.9
-9.4
-3.7
3.6)

(

-10.2
-6.8
-1.8
0.9)

(

0.0)

(

-0.5)

1
1

-0.5)

1

1.2)

WEEKLY LEVELS-SMILLIONS
1976--MAR.

31,970
31,533
31,608
31.699
32,074

31,675
31,016
31,459
31,470
31,963

34,340
33 834
33,843
33,876
34,300

34,256
33,786
33,803
337.98
34,263

33,930
33,731
33,642
33,765
33,899

19,676
19,545
19,555
19,749
19,761

11,884
11,885
11,852
11,839
11,892

2,370
2,300
2,235
2,177
2,226

APR.

NOTE:

3
10
17
24
31
7
14

31t621
31,738

31,383
31,692

33t858
33,786

33,834
33,724

33,727
33,603

19,576
19,628

11,914
11,926

2,237
2,048

RESERVE SERIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REMOVE DISCONTINUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES
DATA SHOWN IN PARENTHESES ARE CURRENT PROJECTIONS.
AT THE FOMC MEETING OF MAR. 16,
RANGE OF -2.0 TO 2.0 PERCENT FOR THE MAR.-APR. PERIOD.

IN RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO.
1l76 THE COMMITTEE AGREED ON A RPD

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS II-FOMC

Table 2

MONETARY AGGREGATES
APRIL 16,

ACTUAL AND CURRENT PROJECTIONS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
U.S.

Broad

Credit

Govt

Total

(M1)

(M2)

Proxy

Deposits

Total

Total

Savings

Other

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

295.3
296.8
298.4
(300.41

669.0
676.9
681.7
(688.11

514.1
515.9
516.4
(517.8)

452.9
455.5
456.4
(460.4)

373.7
380.1
383.2
(387.7)

164.2
170.0
173.4
(176.7)

209.5
210.1
209.9
(211.0)

Money Supply

MONTHLY

Other Than CD'S

S

Sources of
Funds

10

9

LEVELS-SBILLIONS
1976--JAN.
FEB.
MAR.
APR.

PERCENT

Nondeposit

Time and Savings Deposits

Adjusted

Narrow

Period

(

2.6
2.6
2.5
2.1)

(

79.2
75.4
73.1
72.7)

(

7.9
8.3
8.6
8.1)

ANNUAL GROWTH
QUARTERLY
3.6
1.9
4.6

6.5
6.4
11.1

-0.8
7.0
1.6

2.6
11.8
4.6

8.9
10.1
16.2

14.5
17.1
31.9

4.9
4.7
4.2

-23.8
19.2
-47.3

7.1
2.5
2.9

10.1
6.1
9.5

1.4
6.0
2.6

4.7
9.1
6.8

12.7
9.1
14.8

18.4
14.7
28.4

8.6
4.9
4.4

-27.5
9.5
-29.3

(

1.2
6.1
6.5
8.0)

(

10.3
14.2
8.5
11.3)

(

-0.7
4.2
1.2
3.3)

(

4.5
6.9
2.4
10.5)

(

17.6
20.6
9.8
14.1)

26.9
42.4
24.0
2.8)

(

10.4
3.4
-1.1
6.3)

-53.6
-57.6
-36.6
-6.6)

(

7.3)

I

9.9)

(

2.2)

1

6.5)

1

12.0)

23.6)

(

2.6)

-21.5)

1975--3RD QTR.
4TH 0TR.
1976--15T OTR.
QUARTERLY-AV
1975--3RD QTR.
4TH QTR.
1976-1ST QTR.
MONTHLY
1976--JAN.
FEB.
MAR.
APR.
MAR.-APR.

(

WEEKLY LEVELS-SBILLIONS
1976--MAR.

381.7
382.7

73.8
73.0

7.9
8.1

456.1

383.1

73.0

6.3

456.7
457.8

383.7
384.4

73.0
73.4

8.5
8.2

460.0

386.7

73.4

7.2

678.5
682.0

514.4
515.7

2.2
2.9

455.5
455.8

17

298.7

681.8

516.7

2.8

24
31
APR.

296.8
299.3
297.3
298.6

681.0
683.0

515.9
515.3

2.8
1.9

300.0

686.6

517.4

2.4

3
10

7 P

NOIEI

DATA

SHOWN

IN

-

I

PARENTHESES

I
ARE

CURRENT

PROJECTIONS.

h
P

-

PRELIMINARY

1976

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS II - FOMC
APRIL 16, 1976

TABLE 3
RESERVE EFFECTS OF
OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS AND OTHER RESERVE FACTORS
(Millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted)

Bills
& Accept.

Period

/
Open Market Operations
Coupon
Agency
RP's
Issues
Issues
Net 3/

(10)

(8)

(9)

2,008

5,155

2,458

186

-2,432

98

114

10

15
-2,637

445
-2,537

1,276
521

-205
-130

-1,150
-387

15
1

-94
3

265
280

1,219

3,315

1,165

66

-813

79

339

355

3,597
-3,129

2,567
-1,101

942
1,631

-48
-3

-308
-3,250

137
-76

449
-1,546

960
-1,110

1,932

822

393

Oct.
Nov.

147
-608

-709

284
-1

Dec.

1,799

297

--

1976--Jan.
Feb.

-1,590
1,205

321
528

240
295

Apr.
May

470

-190
336
820

189
-

----

37

339

3
10

110
-711

--107

17

401

310

24

376

-

31

Apr.

4
11
18

25
Mar.

(11)

(7)

(4)

1976--Feb.

A Target
Available
reserves 5/

(6)

(3)

1975--Sept.

Total

A In Reserve Categories
Available res. 5/
Req. res. against
U.S.G. and interb.
(6)+(7)+(8)-(9)

(5)

(2)

(1)

Daily Average Reserve Effects 2Open Market
A Member
Other 4/
Operations
Bank Borrowing factors

-147

--

7
14
21
28

-1,608
-521

-70

-3,536
-2,633
3,031

1,605
-4,051
2,656

-1
-6
5

-1,607
2,767
-1,900

246
-279
172

-249
-1,011
589

-1

4,014

4,389

2,428

92

-3,404

-33

-851

297
--

-3,314
-8,835

-2,907
-9,653

-93
-4,051

-63
-38

588
3,380

144
-50

288
-659

--

4,115

4,826

429

-7

-91

-112

443

--

3,143

3,519

3,541

38

-3,727

-159

-

-

-3,534
-2,969
2,210

1,142

995

-1,002

-41

1,658p

166

449p

---

-7,764
5,064

-9,442
4,543

-4,396
-1,273

-13
38

3,768p
1,399p

-61
-146

-580p
310p

1/

Represents change in System's portfolio from end-of-period to end-of-period; includes redemptions in regular bill

2/
3/
4/
5/

Represents change in daily average level for preceding period.
Includes matched sale-purchase transactions as well as RP's.
Sum of changes in vault cash, currency in circulation,
Treasury operations, F.R. float,
Reserves to support private nonbank deposits.
Target change for March and April reflects

11

auctions.

gold and foreign accounts, and other F.R. accounts.
the target adopted at the March 16, 1976 FOMC

meeting.
Target change for previous months reflects the bluebook patterns that are consistent with target ranges that were adopted during
the month.
P - Preliminary.

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS II - FOMC
APRIL 16, 1976

TABLE

4

NET CHANGES IN SYSTEM HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES 1/
($ millions, not seasonally adjusted)

Treasury Bills
Net Change 2/

Period
1972
1973
1974
1975

Within
1-year

Treasury Coupons
Net Purchases 3/
Over
1 - 5
5 - 10
10

Total

Within
1-year

Federal Agencies
Net Purchases 4/
Over
I - 5
5 - 10
10

Total

Net Change
Outright
Holdings
Net
Total 5/
RP's 6/

-490
7,232
1,280
-468

87
207
320
337

789
579
797
3,284

539
500
434
1,510

167
129
196
1,070

1,582
1,415
1,747
6,202

46
120
439
191

592
400
1,665
824

253
244
659
460

168
101
318
138

1,059
864
3,082
1,613

1,631
9,273
6,303
7,267

-1,358
-46
-154
1,272

-2,093
1,086
-757
1,294

33
218
13
74

1,054
1,135
712
385

625
454
201
234

312
273
171
315

2,024
2,079
1,096
1,006

69
64
58

169
-514
141

285
-2
106
71

61
-63
14

584
-2
747
284

508
3,076
1,060
2,626

53
230
2,392
-1,403

-363

115

554

226

156

1,052

102

288

108

38

535

1,022

1,256

1975--Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

97
-588
1,784

-43
31

-267
118

156
78

244
71

-709
297

58
--

141
---

71
-

14
--

284
---

430
99
2,096

15
-2,637
1,219

1976--Jan.
Feb.
Mar.

-1,596
1,275
-42

37
40
38

110
366
78

100
63
63

73
59
24

321
528
203

26
76
-

139
149
--

47
61
--

27
11
-

240
297
--

-1,030
2,029
23

3,597
-3,129
788

1976--Feb. 4
11
18
25

-189
356
840
53

-40

189
--177

--63

---59

189
-339

--

---

--

---

----

-1
336
820
376

-3,534
-2,969
2,210
4,014

Mar. 3
10
17
24
31

150
-688
438
431
-156

-38
-

--107
185
--

-

--24
---

--107
310
-

76
---

149
---

61
--

11
--

297
---

407
-818
711
376
-147

-3,314
-8,835
4,115
3,143
1,142

Apr. 7
14
21
28

-1,593
-501

-70

-

--

--

-

-

--

-

-

--

1975--Qtr.
Qtr.
Qtr.
Qtr.

I
II
III
IV

1976--Qtr. I

Apr.

--

-70
-..

63
--..-

--

-1,678

-7,764

-521

5,064

1/ Change from end-of-period to end-of-period.
2/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts, and redemptions (-) in bill auctions.
3/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts and short-term notes acquired in exchange for maturing bills.
Excludes redemptions,
maturity shifts, rollovers of maturing coupon issues, and direct Treasury borrowings from the System.
4/ Outright transactions in market and with foreign accounts only. Excludes redemptions and maturity shifts.
5/ In addition to net purchases of securities, also reflects changes in System holdings of bankers' acceptances, direct Treasury borrowings from the
System, and redemptions (-) of Agency and Treasury coupon issues.
6/ Tncludes changes in both RP's (+) and matched sale-purchase transactions (-).

CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS II - FOMC
APRIL 16, 1976
TABLE 5
SECURITY DEALER POSITIONS AND BANK POSITIONS
(millions of dollars)
U.S. Govt. Security
Dealer Positions

Period

Bills

Coupon Issues

1I\
\

Member Bank Reserve Position
Dealer Positions

Corporate
Bonds

Municipal
Bonds

Borrowin

Excess**
Reserves
(S)

Total
(6)

at FRB**

Seasonal

Basic Reserve Deficit

8 New York
(8)

38 Others
(9)

1975--High
Low

7,029
1,586

2,845
253

804
-42

609
17

-7,387
-1,757

-11,632

1976--High
Low

*6,821
4,294

1,684
349

570
-106

153
37

-6,736
-2,367

-12,603

1975--Mar.

3,143

2,521

195

96

-5,732

-10,302

Apr.
May
June

2,737
4,744
5,201

1,617
1,752
1,351

143
155
201

110
66
227

-4,079
-3,965
-5,821

-10,426

July

1,246
1,204
588

188
195

Sept.

4,231
4,020
5,008

191

259
211
397

-5,546
-3,964
-3,551

- 9,896
- 9,966
- 9,015

Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

5,766
4,751
4,822

1,480
2,073
1,075

161
251
265

189
60
130

-2,644
-3,812
-2,811

- 9,202

1976--Jan.
Feb.
Mar.

4,959
5,214
*5,910

1,220
1,051

232
256
254p

-3,581
-4,138
-4,726

- 9,746

5,020
5,183
5,961
4,789

828
1,684
903
833

3
10
17
24
31

4,530
5,984
6,107
*6,106
*6,032

581
911
349
*809
*1,184

410
103
201
111
4
01p

7
14
21
28

*6,725
*6,821

*669
*773

134 p
8
1 p

Aug.

1976--Feb. 4
11
18
25
Mar.

Apr.

NOTE:

*778

417
123
570
-106

79
81
54p

- 7,207

- 8,478

- 9,567
- 9,344

-10,159
-10,418

-10,015
- 9,640

57
51
56
148

-2,367
-5,662
-3,673
-3,720

84
48
40
78
37p

-4,415
-6,510
-4,980
-3,681
-4,226

- 9,390

24p
62p

-5,942p
6
- ,736p

-10, 03p
-12,603p

- 9,018

-10,889
-10,642
- 9,550

-10,252
- 9,914

-10,095
- 8,824

1

5

Government security dealer trading positions are on a commitment basis. Trading positions, which exclude Treasury bills financed by repurchase
agreements maturing in 16 days or more, are indicators of dealer holdings for sale over the near-term. Other security dealer positions issues
still in syndicate, excluding trading positions. The basic reserve deficit is excess reserves less borrowing at Federal Reserve
less net Federal
funds purchases. Weekly data are daily averages for statement weeks, except for corporate and municipal issues in syndicate
which are Friday figures.
*

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

**Monthly averages for excess reserves and borrowings are weighted averages of statement week figures.

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL (FR)
CLASS II

--

FOMC

APRIL 16, 1976
TABLE 6
SELECTED INTEREST RATES
(Per Cent)
Treasury Bills
Federal
Funds
(1)

Period

90-Day

1-year

Short-Term
90-119 Day
CD's New
Commercial
Paper
60-89 Day

ssue-NYC
90-119 Day

(3)

(6)

.
aA Ut .y
Municipal
New
Recently
Bond
Issue
Offered
Buysr
(7)
(8)
9.71
9.80,
8.89
9.06

1975--High
Low

7.70
5.13

7.31
5.46

7.75
5.38

1976--High
Low

5.12
4.70

5.92
5.35

5.38
4.88

8.88

8.53

1975--Mar.

5.54

5.70

6.03

Apr.
May
June

5.49

6.40
5.91
5.86

6.03

July
Aug.
Sept.

6.10
6.14
6.24

6.64
7.16

6.25

7.20

Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

5.82

1976--Jan.
Feb.
Mar.

4.87
4.77

1976-Feb. 4
11
18
25

4.82
4.73
4.70
4.80

5.00
5.13
.5.21
5.15

Mar. 3
10
17
24
31

4.95
4.86
4.77
4.79
4.84

Apr. 7
14
21
28

4.73
4.77

Daily-Apr.

4.73
4
.75p

Lona-Te r m
U.S. Govt.(20- IFNA
yr, Constant
Auction
Natrity)
Yield
(10)
(11)

lONMA
Guaranteed
Securities
(12)

4.9Q
4.78

8.10

8.50

7.85

9.13
8.94

8.45
8.25

9.35

9.38

7.99

8.82

8.09

9.67
9.63
9.25

9.66

8,36

906

9.65
9.33

8.22
8.04

9.27
9.09

8.48
8.51
8.34

9.43

8.17
8.50
8.57

9.14

6.81

9.41
9.46
9.68

6.45
6.03
5,83

9.45
9.20
9.36

9.43
9.26
9.23

8.35
8.28

9.80
9.80

8.23

9.31

5.03

8.70
8.63
8.62

8.79
8.63

8.01

9.10
9.06

8.61

8.03
7.97

4.88
5.13

8.68

8.62

8.04

8.10

9.07

5.13

8.64

5.13

8.58

8.68
8.67
8.56

8.06
7.96

9,04

5.38
5.25

8.72
8.63
8.61
8.53
8.60

8.72
8.64

8,07

5.20
5.10

4.84

8.94

5.20
5.25
5.33
5.30
5.13

5.20

9.10

5.44
5.53
5.82

5.22

9.95
8.78

6.48
6.07
6.16

5.22
5.55

8.63
7.63

5.00

5.56
5.37

5.63
5.51

6.63

5.06
5.20

5.13
5.13

5.25
5.13
5.00
4.88

8.43p

9,49
9.57

9.41
9.78

9.05

8.50
8.4 6p

7.84
7.80p

8.50
8.75
8.97
8.87
8.50
8.56
8.37
8.29
8.30

9.06

8.50
8.54

7.99
7.97
7.89
7.90

7.93

8.94

8.60

9.03

7.82
n.a.
"

NOTE:

Weekly data for columns 1 to 4 are statement week averages of daily data.
Columns 5 and 6 are one-day Wednesday quotes. For colmm 7 and 10, the
weekly date is the mid-point of the calendar week over which data are averaged. Column 8 and 9 are one-day quotes for Friday and Thursday,
respectively, following the end of the statement week. Column 11 gives FNMA auction data fo the Monay preceding the and of the statement week.
Column 12 is a one-day quote for the Monday preceding the end of the statement week. The EMA auction yield is the average yield in bi-weekly auctiaofor
short-term forward commitments for Government underwritten mortgages. GNMA yields are average notayild to tiveators on mortgage-backed securities
for immediate delivery, assuming prepayment in 12 years on pools of 30-year FHA/VA mlotgages carrylg the prevaling ceiling rate.

APPENDIX TABLE 1-A

APRIL 16,

1976

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

Available
Period
Total

Noto
Non
borrowed

1

MONEY STOCK
MEASURES

BANK CREDIT
MEASURES

RESERVES

2

Support
Pvt.
Deposits
3

ANNUALLY:

Total
Loans
M2
M1
and
Investments
7
6
5
4
(Per cent annual rates of growth)

AdlCredit
proxy

M4

M5

M6

M?

8

9

10

11

12

11.0
10.6
6.3

10.6
9.0
9.6

11.1
8.9
10.0

11. ,

8.4
7.4
-1.1

10.5
10.2
3.9

13.5
9.2

-0.4

6.0
9.2
1.3

4.3

6.0
4.7
4.2

4.2

19.3

5.7

6.1

3.1

3.9

7.8

7.'.

7.1

7.0

9.9
9.0

9.5
10.U

9.4
9.3

6.7
7.1

1973
1974
1975

b

M3

8

6.9
9.6

SEMI-ANNUALLY:
END HALF

1974

-1.2

1ST HALF 1975
2ND HALF 1975

0.3

-1.7
-0.6

1.7
0.9

4.5
3.1

5.1
3.4

5.6
2.7

C.9
5.4

5.3
-0.8
7.0

4.6
3.6
3.1

9.7
3.6
1.9

7.7
3.0
7.8

11.3
8.1
9.6

10.6
8.6
11.2

10.1
7.5
10.9

DUARTERLY:
-0.1
-2.8
4.5

-0.2
-1.5
0.4

-6.2

-5.4

-5.9

1.6

7.3

4.6

4.E

6.2

6.1

7.6

2ND OTR.
1975
3RD QTR.
1975
4TH QTR. 1975

-1.4

-0.4
-1.9
2.7

-2.2
-0.8
-0.8

3.6

7.4
7.1
2.5

5.6
5.7
t.5

9.4

6.0

!.1
4.1
4.7

10.1
9.2

U.7
10.7
10.1

8.7
9.5
9.5

1ST QTR.

-3.9

-3.2

-3.4

2.6

4.0

2.9

5.2

6.3

8.6

8.i

1975--FEB.
MAR.
APR.
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUG.
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
DEC.

-9.0
-1.4
3.5
-11.6
12.2

-0.4
0.0
3.4
-10.1
6.5
-5.8
0.0
-2.6
0.8
14.3
-1.6

-6.2
-4.e
2.2
-8.1
5.4
-0.3
-4.3
0.3
-5.1
6.0
0.3

-0.7
6.0
2.2
1.0
12.7
-3.3
-4.3
5.2
5.9
14.4
0.7

4.9
4.4
3.9
6.2
12.9
5.1
-C.5
4.3
7.7
11.1
4.5

7.3
8.2
8.2
10.1
16.0
10.0
5.9
8.3
'-.7
11.6
7.2

6.t
6.9
7.8
9.4
14.9
11.9
7.0
6.5
11.0
14.6
7.7

1976--JAN.
FEB.
MAR. P

-10.2

-8.4
-6.9
-0.9

-4.9
-9.4
-3.7

-0.7
4.2
1.2

'7.u
9.4
7.9

6.8
9.3
8.G

2ND QTR. 1975
3RD OTR.
1975
4TH OTR. 1975

1.3
-o.d

IST QTR.

1.4

1976

QUARTERLY-AV:

0.1
0.6

1976

1.4

MONTHLY:

-3.2
-3.1
3.9

-6.3
9.7
0.8

-6.8

-1.8
I

NOTES:

1/
P -

I

4.3
7.9
3.4
5.1
5.1
2.0
6.8
2.0
6.0
10.5
-7.3
5.3
6.1
6.2

0.0
9.4
3.4
11.4
14.2
3.7
5.3
1.6
-0.8
9.4
-2.8
1.2
6.1
6.5

3.2
6.6
4'.0

7.9
7.8
6.6
13.5
10.6
6.0
3.7
10.4
14.3
7.6
6.5
8.9

7.1

ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMEN1S, LOANS SOLD TO BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS,
AND EURODOLLAR bORROWINGS OF U.S.BANKS.
WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS.
ONMHLY
DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES.
WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS. Mt, M1, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS.
BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS.
PRELIMINARY

APPENDIX TABLE 1-B

MONEY AND CREDIT AGGREGATE MEASURES

APRIL 16,

1976

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BANK CREDIT

MONEY STOCK

MEASURES

RESERVESU

MEASURES

Total

borrowed

1

2

Available
to
Support
Pvt.
Deposits
3

32,390
34,693
34,539

31,092
33,966
34,409

30,335
32,591
32,231

449.4
495.3
514.4

34,377

34,271

32,337

Period

Non

Adj.
Credit
proxy

Total
Loans
and
Investments
5

MI

M2

M

M4

M5

M6

M7

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

634.6
691.9
721.6

270.5
283.1
295.0

571.4
612.4
663.3

919.5
981.6
1091.8

634.9
702.2
746.2

982.9
1071.4
1174.7

1093.7
1191.0
1310.0

1132.0
1232.7
1350.5

499.9

701.7

284.1

623.0

1003.7

712.8

1093.5

1214.9

1259.0

284.9
287.6
291.0

626.7
633.7
642.4

1012.7
1025.3
1040.2

715.1
718.8
726.5

1101.1
1110.4
1124.3

1222.8
1232,4
1247.7

1267.2
1276.3
1290.7

ANNUALLY:
1973
1974
1975

MONTHLY:
1975--MAP.
APR.
MAY
JUNE

34,477
34.143
34,490

34,367
34,077
34,263

32,396
32,176
32.320

500.8
501.2
506.5

703.7
706.7
709.7

JULY
AUG.
SEPT.

34,399
34,310
34,421

34,098
34,099
34,024

32,3)1
32,194
32,201

505.1
503.3
505.5

710.9
714.9
716.1

291.9
293.2
293.6

647.5
650.6
652.9

1051.6
1060.6
1068.1

729.6
729.3
731.9

1133.7
1139.3
1147.2

1260.1
1267.5
1274.4

1302,1
1308,6
1314.6

OCT.
NOV.
DEC.

34,239
34,515
34,539

3',048
34,455
34.409

32,063
32,224
32,231

508.0
514.1
514.4

719.7
726.0
721.6

293.4
295.7
295.0

655.7
661.6
663.3

1075.6
1086.0
1091.8

736.6
743.4
746.2

1156.5
1167.7
1174.7

1286.1
1301.7
1310.0

1326.2
1342.0
1350.5

1976--JAN.
FEB.
MAR,

34,245
34,052
34,000

34,167
33.971
33,946

32,100
31.849
31,752

514.1
515.19
516.4

724.8
729.7
734.7

295.3
296.8
298.4

669.0
676.9
681.7

1102.4
1115.6
1125.6

748.2
752.3
754.8

1181.6
1190.9
1198.7

1317.4
1327.6
1336.5

1357.6
1367.9
1376.1

33,775
34,210
33,774

33,724
34,154
33,626

31,626
32 176
31,578

516.4
516.9
515.4

297.3
297.9
295.8

676.7
678.4
676.7

752.5
753.7
751.4

3
10
17
24
31P

34,340
33,834
33,843
33,876
34,300

34,256
33.786
33,803
33,798
34,263

31,970
31,533
31 608
31 699
32,074

514.4
515.7
516.7
515.9
515.3

296.8
299.3
298.7
297.3
298.6

678.5
682.0
681.8
681.0
66b.0

752.3
755.0
754.8
754.0
756.4

7P

33,858

33,834

31,621

517.4

300.0

686.6

760.0

P

WEEKLY:

1976--FEB. 11
18
25
MAR.

APR.

I
I
.
I
I
6
I
ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY INCLUDES MAINLY TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS,
LOANS SOLL 10 BANKRELATED INSTITUTIONS, AND EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S.DANKS.
WEEKLY DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES FOR STATEMENT WEEKS.
MONTHLY
DATA ARE DAILY AVERAGES.
WEEKLY DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR M3, MS, M6, M7, TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS AND THRIFT INSTITUTION DEPOSITS.
I/ BASED ON DATA ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS.
P - PRELIMINARY

NOTES:

APPENDIX TABLE 2-A

APKIL 1t,

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES
Currency

Period

Demand

Dp

otal

Time
Deposits

Other
Time
Than
CD's

2

3

Credit

Union
Shares

CD's

Savings
Bonds

6

7

8

C
T
Term
Paper
USShort v't ICommercial
Securities

1

Sharesy

.
1

Savings

Mutual
ank
and S & L

4

S(Per

5

9

10

31.3
11.9
21.0

39.3
9.1
-3.3

4.4

4.4

cent annual rates of growth)

ANNUALLY :
11.4
9.4
11.8

13.8
12.1
20.2

6.5
5.6
15.7

45.6
41.4
-7.7

20.9

8.7

16.2
15.0
7.7

2ND HALF 1974

9.9

10.6

8.0

.,

I

11.5

1ST HALF 1975
2NO HALF 1975

9.4
7.6

7.8
7.2

13.4
9.6

15.2
15.2

20.9
17.6

-12.7
-2.9

6.7
34.0

5.7
-12.1

1975
QIR.
R.
1975
QiiR. 1975

9.2
5.6
9.4

6.3
2.6
11.8

14.6
8.9
10.1

17.7
17.4
12.4

20.6
17.0
17.6

-25.4
-23.8
19.2

7.0
19.2
46.6

-9.1
-24.2
0.0

1976

10.9

4.6

16.2

14.1

19.2

-47.3

8.2

-2.0

8.1

1.73
1974

10.

SMI-ANNUALLY:

QUAI
2ND
3RD
4TH

RKLY:

1lT O-TR.

QUARTERLY-AV:
9.3
-23.7
-8.7

2ND OTR.
3RD QTR.
4tfl QTR.

1975
1975
1975

8.1
8.5
8.4

4.5
4.7
9.1

12.5
12.7
9.1

16.2
18.2
14.0

21.0
18.6
16.5

-24.5
-27.5
9.5

-2.6
26.4
30.7

1'1 QTR.

1976

9.8

6.8

14.8

13.2

18.3

-29.3

17.0

0.0

12.2
1.7
12.1
13.7
5.1
10.1
1.7
10.0
13.2
4.9

1.1
3.9
3.1
12.0
5.8
-3.8
5.8
13.4
11.9
9.7

10.0
9.9
15.1
18.4
14.0
6.4
6.0
10.4
11.9
7.9

15.2
16.4
17.2
18.9
16.9
17.7
14.9
13.5
12.4
11.0

21.0
20.3
19.9
15.7
19.4
15.2
18.8
14.8
18.3

-30.0
-18.7
-44.8
-14.1
-28.5
-48.2
4.6
27.3
13.4
16.1

-16.6
0.0
-2.1
23.1
53.6
27.6
-23.2
37.4
78.2
19.7

33.6
10.9
-13.5
-24.6
-25.1
-28.
-20.
-5.9
6.0
0.0

8.1
12.9
11.2

4.5
6.9
2.4

17.6
20.6
9.8

13.4
14.4
13.9

18.0
10.7
28.2

-53.6
-57.6
-36.6

1.8
10.6
12.2

0.0
-3.0
-3.0

MOT HLY:
)97h---MAR.
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUG.
SEPT.
OCT.
NOV.
DLL.
1976--JAN.
FEB.
MAR.

1/
P -

P

GROWTH RATES ARE BASED ON ESTIMATED
PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA.
PRELIMINARY.

MONTHLY AVERAGE LEVELS

20.6

DERIVED BY AVERAGING END OF CURRENT

MONTH AND END OF

19ft.

APRIL 16,

1976

APPENDIX TABLE 2-B

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND RELATED MEASURES
Currency Cu ncy
d D

Period

Demand
Time
Deposits
_

Time
-Total
Other
rhn
CD'
_

Mutual
Savings
Bank
and S & L

Credit
Union
Shares

CD's

Savings
Bnds

6

7

8

i

Shares y

Short
Term
Commercial
't
S
Scurite
Secur
9
10

Nondeposit
Fu n d s

U.S.
Gov't
Demand

11

12

1

2

3

4

5

61.5
67.8
73.7

209.0
215.3
221.3

364,4
419.1
451.2

300.9
329.3
368.3

323.5
341.6
395.4

17.7
13.3

63.5
89.8
82.9

60.4
63.3
67.3

50.3
56.3
68.1

38.3
41.8
40.4

6.6
8.4
8.4

5.0
3.4
3.0

1975--MAR.

69.4

214.7

428.7

339.0

351.9

29.1

89.8

64.2

57.2

44.0

6.5

2.5

APR.
MAY
JUNE

69.5
70.2
71.0

215.4
217.4
220.0

430.1
431.2
435.5

341.8
346.1
351.4

356.7
361.8
367.5

29.6
30.1
.0.6

88.4
85.1
84.1

64.5
64.8
65.1

57.2
57.1
58.2

44.4
43.9
43.0

6.7
7.4
7.0

2.7
2.5
3.2

JULY
AUG.
SEPT.

71.3
71.9
72.0

220.6
221.3
221.6

4jT.6
436.2
438.3

355.5
351.4
359.2

373.3
378.8
383.5

31.0
31.5
31.9

82.1
78.8
79.1

65.6
65.9
66.2

60.8
62.2
61.0

42.1
41.1
40.4

6.8
7.0
7.0

2.6
2.8
3.0

OCT.
NOV.
DEC.

72.6
73.4
73.7

220.8
222.3
221.3

443.2
447.6
451.2

362.3
365.9
36.3

387.8
391-8
395.4

32.4
32.8
33.3

80.9
81.8
82.9

66.6
67.0
67.3

62.9
67.0
68.1

40.2
40.4
40.4

7.9
8.2
8.4

3.0
3.9
3.0

74.2
75.0
75.7

221.2
221.8
222.8

452.9
455.5
456.4

373.7
380.1
383.2

399.8
404.6
409.3

33.8
34.1
34.9

79.2
75.4
73.1

67.6
67.9
68.3

68.2
68.8
69.5

40.4
40.3
40.2

7.9
8.3
8.6

2.6
2.6
2.5

74.9
75.0
75.1

222.4
222.8
220.7

455.2
455.8
455.7

379.4
380.5
380.9

75.8
75.3
74.8

8.1
8.1
8.0

2.5
2.8
3.0

ANNUALLY:
1973
1974
1915

24.7

MONTHLY:

1976--JAN.
FEB.
MAR.

P

WE;KLY:

1976--FEB. 11
18
25
MAR.

P -

75.2
75.7
75.7
75.8
75.8

221.6
223.5
223.0
221.5
222.6

455.5
455.8
456.1
456.7
457.8

381.7
382.7
383.1
383.7
384.4

73.8
73.0
73.0
73.0
73.4

7.9
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.2

2.2
2.9
2.8
2.8
1.9

APR.

1/

3
10
17
24
31P
7P

76.2

223.8

460.0

386.7

73.4

7.2

2.4

ESTIMATED MONTHLY AVERAGE
DATA.
PRELIMINARY

LEVELS DERIVED BY AVERAGING

END OF CURRENT

MONTH

AND

END

OF PREVIOUS MONTH REPORTED DATA.

Appendix Table III

Growth Rate in Money Supply
(Per cent change in an annual rate)
Ml

M2

M3

M

q

M

Q

I

3.6

7.4

7.3

II

10.1

6.4

III

1.8

5.5

IV

7.8

5.1

QIV '72-QIV '73

6.0

6.2

1974

I

5.3

II

M

Q

9.2

8.4

10.3

9.9

8.2

9.8

8.5

6.3

7.9

6.1

7.8

9.0

9.9

8.4

8.8

8.8

8.8

9.0

6.0

9.0

9.6

8.4

8.9

5.3

5.6

6.9

7.4

5.7

6.5

III

3.0

4.2

5.5

6.4

5.2

5.6

IV

4.7

4.0

6.6

6.4

7.2

6.5

QIV '73-QIV '74

4.7

5.0

7.2

7.7

6.8

7.1

1975

I

1.4

0.6

6.9

5.6

9.0

7.5

II

9.7

7.4

12.5

III

3.6

7.1

6.5

IV

1.9

2.5

6.4

6.1

4.2

4.4

8.3

8.2

11.2

11.1

2.9

11.1

9.5

12.4

11.1

1973

QIV '74-QIV '75

1976

10.5

10.2

14.5

12.6

10.1

10.7

13.3

M = Annual rates of growth calculated from average levels in
months of the quarters.

9.2

8.9

the final

Q = Annual rate calculated from average levels in all three months of the
quarters.

Appendix Table IV
Projected Federal Funds Rates
Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

5k

4-5/8

5

4-7/8

5%

6

QIV
1977

QII
QIII

1976

5k

6

7

QI

6

7

7%

Appendix Table V
Reserve Measures Consistent With Short-run Alternatives
(seasonally adjusted)

Average of 4 weeks
April 28 to May 19
($ million)
Alt. A
Nonborrowed reserves
Member bank borrowing
Excess reserves

34,012

Alt. B
33,966

Change from average of
previous 5-weok period
($ million)

Alt, C
33,88(

Alt. A

Alt. B

Alt. C

44

-2

-82

2-month Annual Percentage
Growth Rate for April-May
Alt. A

Alt, B

Alt. C

2.6

1.6

0.0

33

38

7

-14

-9

31

204

186

9
16!

-28

-46

-63

-12

-51

2.2

1.4

0.6

Other reserve aggregates:
Total reserves

1/

Monetary base-

Nonborrowed monetary
base

1/

34,045

34,003

33,964

30

113,316

113,274

113,234

756

714

674

7.9

7.6

7.4

113,237

113,157

770

724

644

8.0

7.7

7.2

113,283

Total reserves plus currency held outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and member banks.