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F E D E R A L RESEA R C H —STIM ULATOR O F PRO GRESS E. Finley Carter, director, Stanford Research Institute I n t r o d u c t io n Physical and social progress today depend upon the systematic process of research and development. Research, whether sponsored by government or private agencies, can leaven our economy and so ciety. I t can have effects spreading far beyond the research act or finding, just as one neutron can trigger a great explosion—but a way must first be found to start the reaction. I t is therefore fitting that the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress should devote part of its study of Federal expenditure policy to the topic of research and development. On behalf of my colleagues at Stanford Research Institute, I am happy to take this opportunity to present our views on this subject under the title of “Federal Research—Stimulator of Progress.” I t is our view that we cannot live indefinitely in a world where social progress advances arithmetically and technical progress ad vances geometrically. Because of our belief, this paper presents three main points of view: 1. Research and development have long since proved their unique value in advancing our technical prowess in the realms of defense, industry, and business. 2. Research, under the leavening sponsorship of the Federal Government, can be equally effective in the realms of human rela tions, social affairs, and other public problems. 3. Research in this Nation must be coordinated and analyzed and its meaning and capabilities profoundly understood if we are to derive from our research and development efforts the full benefits intrinsic to the scientific approach. F irst, however, let us define “research” as the term is used in this paper. Most research in industry and government is of an applied character, and it is this applied type of research that is under discus sion here. Applied research has a number of distinct facets. In the field of health, for example, applied research may create an anti biotic having specific properties—a tangible material. I t may evolve a course of treatment for a particular disability—a method or process. Research may also, however, provide information on the probable consequences of following any of several courses of preventive action— a management aid. The terms “research” and “development’’ have become stylish in both private and government circles. The securities analyst, for example, tends to put a premium on the stock of companies that report large research and development budgets. Because of the glamour of the term “research,” however, an unfortunate tendency has emerged to label some activities as research which really do not deserve the 1147 1148 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY name. Some of the criteria th at distinguish true research from the activities that masquerade as research are therefore worth men tioning. Inherent in true research is the use of the scientific method. A t the heart of the scientific approach is the analyst’s interest not only in what happens, but in how and why it happens. He seeks an under standing of phenomena through certain basic steps: 1. He states the objective of his study as best he can and asks himself the pertinent questions. 2. He makes observations and measurements and records data. 3. He develops trial ideas or “hypotheses” which relate his vari ous observations. In research dealing with policymaking and decision-making, this step requires making a “model” of the oper ations. The model is an analog, often mathematical, of the real system under study. 4. He devises experiments or other tests to determine relation ships among the measured elements of the problem, gathers in formation to round out the picture, modifies his original hypothe sis as necessary, and selects the hypothesis th at best expresses the relationships involved. 5. Finally, he applies his refined hypothesis to the problem. This approach can be used to achieve either of the two principal aims of science or management: (1) To control the phenomenon or operation or (2) to predict future events. Unless an investigative activity utilizes the scientific approach it cannot fully express the potential of research and it therefore does not properly earn the designation “research.” This paper deals with applied research in the sense just defined. Its domain is applied research, supported or conducted by the United States Federal Government and, more particularly, that segment of the Federal program devoted to nondefense research. The impor tant areas of industrially supported research and governmental de fense research are well recognized and are treated herein only for comparison. I t is one thesis of this paper that nondefense applied research, under government leadership, can produce a great variety of basic national benefits that can never be attained without conscious and concentrated effort. To develop our viewpoints we first discuss the place of research and development in the Federal Government today. Of particular interest are current trends and the nature of the research process—what to hope for from research, how research influences the economy, and the significance of attitudes toward research. That general discussion is followed by a number of illustrations of directions which Federal effort could take to utilize the full potential of research in nondefense areas. I t is our purpose to show that many vexing problems of national concern can be made to yield to the research attack, if only the proper approach is selected. The paper concludes by proposing a plan which gives promise of improving research and development efficiency throughout the Nation. A t the same time this plan could give rise to major advances in our understanding of the fundamental capabilities of research as a tool able to help bring about a world more at peace with itself. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY T he P lace of F ederal R 1149 esearch However measured, research and development work supported by the Federal Government is big business—and is growing bigger. About $3 billion a year, or 4.6 percent of the total Federal budget of some $65 billion, is currently spent on research and development. I t is perhaps more meaningful that the two activities consume roughly 6.4 percent of the amounts spent for the purchase of goods and serv ices—mainly, equipment and payrolls. Trends in research and development The national defense program absorbs a very large fraction of total research and development expenditures. Of the $3 billion, about $2.7 billion is used by the Department of Defense, the Atomic Energy Commission, and the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics. Expenditures for defense and for nondefense purposes are increas ing at about the same rate. In both fields obligations in 1957 were 2.5 times the figure for 1947, measured in constant dollars. In absolute terms funds obligated for defense research rose from $712 million in 1947 to $1,806 million in 1957, again stated in 1947 dollars. On the same basis, nondefense obligations during the decade increased from $112 million to $281 million. Appendix I contains details on Federal research and development obligations and expenditures, ana lyzed in several ways. I t is pertinent to examine the ratio of research expenditure to the value of the product and activity it supports. The goods and services that national defense research affects will, of course, actually be pur chased at different times in the future. Nevertheless, the current ratio is revealing. In recent years this ratio has hovered around 5 percent, the 1956 figure being 5.2 percent. An exactly analogous comparison cannot be made for nondefense research expenditures because much of the research and its products relate to activities outside the governmental sphere. To provide an indication of the relation between defense research activities costs and nondefense research activities costs, nondefense data on Federal research and purchases have been combined with research and products in the private-business field. The research cost to activities value ratio for all nondefense purposes has climbed from about 1.3 percent in 1947 to 1.7 percent in 1956. The difference between these two ratios for defense and nondefense states that more than three times as much is spent on defense research per unit of product or activity as is spent in the nondefense realm. Trends within national defense research expenditures are interesting in th at the concept of methods research, especially that of research on matters affecting decisions and policies, is taking hold rapidly. Although research on physical problems is still overwhelmingly pre dominant, the whole field of operations research is receiving much special attention. Many branches of the armed services, together with special groups such as the Rand Corp., Operations Research Office, and Operations Evaluations Group (acting for the A ir Force, the Army, and the Navy, respectively), are pressing this aspect of research effort with particular vigor. Because the Government’s present expenditures for nondefense research and development are comparatively so small, trends are more 1150 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY difficult to isolate. I t nevertheless seems reasonable to suppose, in view of the characteristic spreading habit of research methods, that similar trends are active within nondefense research. Certainly they are pronounced in industrial research, and give every indication of becoming more so. Research , economics, and society I t always has been and always will be pertinent to ask what we want for our research dollars. One classic answer is profit. That answer has motivated and still motivates almost all industrial research. Another answer is national security. That, of course, is why this country spends some 90 percent of its research and development funds on defense research. But there are other answers, too, and they are the answers th at constitute the reason for this paper. Research can be a stimulator of progress, with all th a t th a t con notes. Innovation—generated largely through research—is one of the great dynamic forces in an economy. Innovation is not only a m atter of providing th at human needs are more fully and better ful filled. I t is also a matter that vitally affects the economic health of the complex civilization in which we live. Our whole economic and social structure is such th at if we do not continually press forward, we are in serious danger of falling back. In their impact upon society, innovations are like waves. Once a series of discoveries has been initiated, it finds response in many fields, first those closely associated and then those more remote, until, like ripples in a still pond> everything within reach is touched. A kind of spirit of adventure pervades all endeavors, not alone those of the innovators, but those of business leaders, social leaders, and all other members of the community. In some respects and in some de gree, exactly this has been happening in the past few years. In this case, m ilitary research and development has provided one of the important originating forces. We need examine only 1 or 2 of the technical developments started during W orld W ar I I to see the multiplying effect th at research and development can have upon the Nation’s technology and economy. Progress in developing fire direction systems for air and naval weapons later led to the electronic computer and to factory automation and control equipment—major businesses today. Improvements in mili tary aircraft and their powerplants led to rapid expansion of the air transportation industry, with its inherent ability to knit the Nation and the countries of the world in to closer and more harmonious communication. I f innovation is a key to economic and social progress, we must ask how innovation is fostered. Any such consideration must take into account the impact of the technological, methodological, or policy making breakthrough. Barriers to further progress in a particular field crop up from time to time and advances are slowed until the barriers are penetrated. Once the barrier is penetrated, repercussions often fan out in all direc tions, leading to gains in a host of allied and distant fields. The past has seen many such breakthroughs. As a rule they have come about rather gradually and their effects have spread slowly. In recent years we have learned, however, that under pressure of war or 1151 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY other great need, a breakthrough can be forced much more rapidly than would occur in the natural course of events. The spectacular example- of course, is the creation and control of the chain reaction of atomic fission. Other examples can be found in the field of elec tronics, high-temperature metallurgy, computers, polio vaccines, and mathematical models for decision making in m ilitary strategy and tactics. We must realize that each type of investigation—if appreciable progress is to be made—requires its own appropriate threshold level of activity below which little contribution can be expected. The prin ciple involved is not entirely understood. Nevertheless, comparisons between research activities th at yielded spectacular success and those of only mediocre fruitfulness seem to suggest that disappointing re sults may stem from the project that fails to mount a sufficiently high overall level of effort, no matter how ably staffed and administered. I t is conceivable, for instance, that the effort of keeping abreast of current literature in a given field may require the full attention of the project team. Under such circumstances no new contributions can be expected. Such an explanation is certainly no full answer to the prob lem of evaluating the appropriate level of effort on a project. Until the phenomenon is better understood we can say only that problems differ greatly in the threshold level of effort they require for resolution. I f we identify a critical roadblock, and if we conclude that it must be removed, and if we mount a concerted effort to or greater than the threshold effort required to break through, we usually accomplish valuable results. We always take the calculated risk that the results will not be worth the effort. Nevertheless, whenever means exist for attacking a problem, we may anticipate eventual reward if enough directed effort is put forth. Some attempts will fa il; some will be only partly successful; others will achieve triumph. The significance of the breakthrough principle to the Federal Gov ernment is that the Government often is the only agency that can mount an attack that holds promise of success. By its nature, then, research thrives only in an atmosphere that believes in its widest potentials—in an atmosphere conducive to prog ress. Through research the group or nation believing in progress will achieve its ends. We must remember, too, that pathfinding research does not operate in a vacuum, but has an infinitude of beneficial side effects. Progress spearheaded by the Federal Government will in evitably lead to far faster progress by State and local agencies, by private enterprise, and even by the initiator, the Federal Government. R esearch and D evelopm ent of the F P o t e n t ia l ederal G in N ondefense F u n c t io n s overnm ent We have already seen that nine times as much is spent on defense research as is spent in the nondefense realm. Perhaps nondefense activities, then, represent undeveloped opportunities for usful re search, because in them there is more virgin territory untouched by the effect of either an appropriate threshold level of research, or, in some cases, of any research at all. I t is the purpose of this section to examine a few or the key nondefense activities in which the Federal Government has an interest, as a means of suggesting research oppor tunities of unusual promise. 1152 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY Most of the research supported in the past by Government and private agencies emphasized products and physical phenomena. In the future, however, research on social phenomena can lead to an era of social invention perhaps comparable to the great era of technical innovation we are now witnessing. The results of undertaking re search on the large and pressing problems of public policy will be manifested mainly in social adjustments, policy determination, and aids to administrative decision-making. I t is likely, however, that some solutions will suggest combinations of equipments and humans into new systems that are more productive or beneficial than any we now know about. The public problems th at illustrate research opportunities in non defense activities fall under three major groupings of Federal Gov ernment interests: (1) National human resources, (2) national mate rial resources and public facilities, and (3) international relations. No attempt is made to group these problems according to responsi bilities of departments of the executive branch of the Federal Gov ernment. Indeed, in nearly every case the scope of the problem cuts across functional departmental lines. While most of the problems listed in these three groupings are directly related to Federal Gov ernment responsibilities, others are only indirectly related. Even in the latter situation a case can be made for Federal expenditures for research to take leadership in promoting the general welfare of the Nation and in sponsoring exploratory and pathfinding efforts which can stimulate activities in the private sector of our economy. National human resources No area is more im portant to our national welfare than th a t of human resources—people. Their happiness and their effectiveness are involved. Education is one im portant domain of human re sources. Health, crime, management-labor relations, and racial prob lems are others, to name a few. All of these are prime subjects for innovative research. The preservation of our democratic heritage and the development of our human and natural resources are attributable in no small degree to our system of universal education. Informed citizens agree th at education today is confronted with many varied and complex problems resulting from our phenomenal increase in school population, our changing technology, and our new role of leadership in world affairs. The problems center around teaching staffs, curriculum and guidance, organization, and financing. Solutions are not likely to be found without major research studies. I t is not easy to say to what extent the Federal Government should finance research on education. I t may be sufficient to note that many problems of nationwide importance lack solutions as well as sponsors to r adequate research on them. We need answers to questions about teacher supply; about how we can staff schools and colleges for doubled enrollments when the supply of new teachers is actually declining; about how we can increase or stretch the effectiveness of capable teachers; about how we can finance a scale of teacher compensation that is competitive enough with other professional rewards to reverse the trend away from the teaching profession. ECONOMIC GROWTH ANT> STABILITY 1153 One particular aspect of education and training of paramount con cern to the Federal Government directly is the need to determine what competencies will be required of the men and women in the Armed Forces of the future. This problem is a major one in view of the growing technical complexities of military weapons and equipment, much serious and imaginative study should be directed toward pro viding competent technical manpower through farsighted education and training. The Federal Government is the largest single sponsor of medical and health research. In this case the total amount spent for research is less open to criticism than the way expenditures are allocated. For example, despite an annual operating expense of $900 million for Federal hospitals, little research has been done on ways of making hospitals more efficient. Crime as a public problem takes a multibillion dollar economic toll. I t represents an immeasurable blight in human anguish. Despite heavy spending by all levels of government to prevent and control crime, scarcely any pathfinding research is underway to seek new ap proaches to corrective and preventive measures. Organized applied research by qualified social scientists and physical scientists could well give rise to social inventions helpful in this national problem. Another barrier to economic and social progress is the continuing problem of industrial management-labor union relations. The public interest in achieving a greater degree of harmony and equity in these relations is so important that this topic deserves attention in an or ganized research effort. In these troubled times of racial integration of schools, our public officials must make decisions and policies without an adequate under standing of the consequences of alternative programs and without a sufficient knowledge of attitudes and how to change them construc tively. Despite our past failure to undertake adequate research on this problem, it is still not too late to launch an inquiry into problems of race' relations and to gather experimental data from the diverse methods that are being used to comply with the Supreme Court ruling on desegregation of schools. National material resources and public facilities Many problems in managing the Nation’s natural resources and the Nation’s public facilities are potentially researchable. Research on these topics can guide planning and the allocation of future expendi tures. The field of agriculture illustrates how research activities in in dustry and Government have cooperated to push productivity to everhigher levels, in recent years advancing even faster than in manu facturing as a whole. The farm-equipment manufacturers are bring ing out better and better machines; the chemical companies are intro ducing improved fertilizers and insecticides; the Department of A gri culture is developing new strains of animals and plants, new methods of cultivation, new marketing procedures, and new means of helping farmers decide on what to grow and how to utilize the natural re sources of the land to the best advantage. As a nation we can be proud of our success in increasing productivity in agriculture, but at the same time we should strive for a better balance that will distribute the remarkably high agricultural output. Research efforts now 1154 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY should be directed at determining policies which will enable the Nation to reap fully the advantages of increased productivity. Opportunities for research exist in discovering greater industrial uses of farm products. Here, as in other problems, the Federal Gov ernment should try to sponsor research th at will stimulate private industry to carry on its own studies of industrial uses of agricultural products. W ater has assumed new importance as a national resource because of rapid regional developments in population, industry, and agricul ture. Actual or threatened shortages may endanger the means of many people to make a good living and the growth and economic health of whole regions. A special reason for Federal interest in water and initiative on water research is that the economic units for water supply and use are not coextensive with State boundaries or sometimes even with national boundaries. There is need to formulate unified policies for entire water basins flexible enough to meet local conditions but clear enough to guide the Congress in such things as judging between competing functional and regional demands for water, means of financing water development, and the proper degree of Federal participation in development and control. Research is needed especially on means of securing adequate sup plies of water of the proper quality for domestic, municipal, indus trial, and agricultural uses. Such research must be undertaken in co ordination with study of problems in pollution, flood control, hydro electric generation, navigation, and recreation, including the propaga tion of fish and wildlife. The research should deal extensively with projections of population and industry growth and with areas yet to be developed. Much more attention is needed on getting the highest economic use out of scarce supplies, better correlation of benefits and costs, and on more equitable financing of improvements by beneficiaries. The Paley Commission has made a number of constructive sugges tions for research and development on materials and energy resources. They need not be repeated here. However, one field for research de serves a high priority, namely, the use of western coals and of certain low -grade mineral deposits. Western coal is an abundant energy re source which seems much nearer to utilization than most others. Even so, its potential is not being realized because of unsolved technical and economic problems centering around getting the coal to market or converting it at the mine or elsewhere into electrical, gas, or liquid energy. The fact th at the Army is supporting a modest research effort on these problems indicated the Federal interest in it. The growing dependency of the United States on imported petroleum and the increasing petroleum deficiency of the Western States accent the need for a stepped-up effort. This effort should be coordinated with the research and development on the chemical and industrial uses of coal for other than energy purposes. Since there are many wellfinanced private enterprises with an interest in research on coal, and which have done major work on it, the Federal Government should focus on leadership and coordination rather than replacing private responsibility, initiative, or financial support. Technological advances and improved organization of mining and processing industries, accompanied by the ever-growing needs for ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY 1155 minerals of many types, has increased the incentive to discover and improve ways of using mineral deposits which may have been classed as uneconomic in the past. Many deposits were discovered when the circumstances for utilizing them were fa r less conducive to success than they are today or as they seem to be in the future. Production of copper from low-grade ores, iron from taconite, aluminum and uranium from deposits considered worthless only a few years ago, are dramatic examples of the process. As the higher-grade deposits become worked out, the need and economic opportunity for success fully working with low-grade ores are increased. As the principal owner of the undeveloped mineral domain, as a major buyer and user of mineral products, as the guardian of the na tional security, and as the principal regulator of economic policy in the mineral field, the Federal Government has a preeminent interest in better utilization of low-grade mineral resources. Here, too, the Federal Government should sponsor research designed to catalyze private study of mineral deposits. In its report, the President’s Materials Policy Commission pointed out that development of effective means of highway transportation, coordinated with land and resources use planning, is essential to the utilization of resources. Highway planning is also connected with urban development and housing in that there should be coordination of plans for moving people into, within, and out of city centers. More over, highway construction that is compatible with master metropol itan planning can be used to clear slum areas. The Federal Govern ment is actively interested in redevelopment of urban centers, in housing, and in its $50 billion Federal highway program. Research to guide planning and decisionmaking in these interconnected topics is a vital national need. International relations Any consideration of Federal expenditure policy for economic growth and stability must respect the impact of the outside world. The strength of our economy not only influences the condition of other nations and our relations with them but has a material effect on a significant portion of our own economy. W ith the stakes in inter national relations so high in terms of national survival and with ever-changing conditions, our relations with other countries require a greater degree of creative study than ever before. Although research on problems of international affairs is now a major occupation in government and elsewhere, Federal expenditures in this crucial field are minute in comparison with those on m ilitary research and development. F or example, the Department of State spent about $351,000 on research in fiscal 1957. I t is time to ask whether a much more intensive effort on behalf of peace through re search on political, social, and economic measures to reduce interna tional tension is not now in order. No less an expert than the United States Ambassador to Egypt, Ray mond A. Hare, stated recently: I would venture to suggest to you that no small amount of the grief and frustration encountered in both the framing and understanding of foreign policy could be avoided if foreign policy were approached more as a science and less as a politi 1156 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY cal rough-and-tumble with esoteric overtones. For, as a result of some reading on foreign affairs and some slight per sonal experience in th at field, I have been increasingly im pressed by the recurrence, in greatly changing circumstances, of identifiable phenomena which lend themselves to analysis, classification, and the drawing of basic and subsidiary con clusions. W hether these conclusions can yet be classed as laws in the scientific sense is debatable and it is not my purpose to press that particular point to conclusion with you today. There is no question in my mind, however, th at such deduc tions do prove that the study of foreign policy can be pursued beyond mere action and reaction and also beyond the evoking of historical precedents, immensely valuable as th at may be. How, then, can research aid the official who makes decisions in inter national affairs ? As a general guide, foreign policy should be antici patory rather than reactive, wherever possible. This implies the pos session of adequate facts and analyses in advance of probable events, at the least, and of some important possible events in addition. From this information consistent policies should be distilled in advance of emergencies, and courses of action formulated in event of need. In the light of tensions between our country and the Soviet Union we know that it is prudent to spend large sums for research on new weapons systems. This same motivation suggests th at it might also be wise to conduct more research on means of changing the spirit and attitudes of Soviet leaders. This would be p art of finding a really feasible way of dealing with the Soviet bloc without the continuous succession of crises and palliatives. As we succeed in finding means of easing tension we need to under take research th at can guide negotiations for limitations of armaments. Political, military, technical, psychological, and economic factors are intricately interwoven in this problem. The interdisciplinary team approach of applied research may succeed in penetrating this barrier and hence ease international tensions. I t is difficult but nonetheless esesntial for our representatives in arms-limitation discussions to assess the implications of arms-limiting proposals. These proposals may be symmetrical or asymmetrical, but before they are advanced or accepted by us the clearest understanding possible of their probable conse quences is necessary. Even if the likelihood of a research break through in this area is slim, the risks of not understanding are so great that research should be given a chance to illuminate this problem area. Should international tensions lessen, our policymakers need to be better prepared with facts and analyses than they are today to deal with the adjustments that would be required. I t is likely th at national-defense expenditures could be cut drastically in such a con tingency. We need research to discover all the major impacts of such a situation and to devise means by which the transition can be accomplished without undue hardship to any sector of our people. Another potential change to which our economic system may be called upon to respond is the possible widespread reduction in tariff barriers among many countries. Europe’s common market is just getting into operation, resulting in regional adjustments in import duties that will modify the character of economic enterprises there and in other countries with whom European firms trade. I t is con ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY 1157 ceivable that an effective means of achieving the foreign-policy ob jectives of our country may require sharp reduction in parts of our own tariff structure. A t present our knowledge of economic dynamics allows us neither to anticipate with any certainty the consequences of changes nor to establish the corrective measures th at would make for a successful transition. Research can illuminate this contingency. In spending vast sums on foreign economic aid, the United States has been rewarded with both successes and disappointments. Some of the disappointments are attributable to failure to establish criteria of economic development for each country where an attempt is made to create something which has never before existed. Better results could be obtained by a more searching analysis and comparison of patterns of economic and social development. Not only are the resources of the United States finite, but any pro gram of foreign aid will operate, like all other governmental activities, within the budget limitations imposed by domestic political and eco nomic considerations. Research is needed here, too, to establish priori ties among foreign-aid goals and to determine the effects that different levels of American foreign aid might produce. Fully recognizing that foreign aid and economic development are complicated by the broader aspects of political relations among na tions, we nevertheless believe that relatively small increases in ex penditures on research will yield an appreciably greater payoff in the success of the foreign-aid program and in its benefits to the United States than most other comparable expenditures of funds. Summary Some say that work today is progressing satisfactorily on most of these important problems and that solutions will appear in the course of time. We agree with such a viewpoint, but we also contend in the strongest terms that progress is so slow as to make it unlikely that the solutions will emerge before the most serious damage has been done to our society and our economy. Others say th at research on these important topics is not a function of the Federal Government and would be too expensive. To these we reply that if the Federal Government does not take the initiative, no action is likely, and th at the cost would be so small relative to the cost of not solving the problems that the comparison is not even relevant. W hat is proposed is research th at will come up with feasible answers to questions of vital public, social, and national concern. Each an swer would have a number of alternatives with respect to procedures and approaches. W hat answers are considered best, what alternative procedures are deemed most favorable—indeed whether any action should be taken at all—is, of course, a matter for the Congress and the American people. R esearch C o o r d in a t io n In view of the large and increasing volume of research now being undertaken by and for the Federal Government, and the large ana increasing volume being undertaken by private business and other agencies, the need is evident for coordination in these efforts. This need will grow more rapidly than research volume grows, because 1158 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY the pattern of interdependent and overlapping investigations will be come more complex. Because the capabilities of research are most widely recognized in the Department of Defense, research coordination is more advanced in that Department than in other parts of the executive branch. There, an Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineer ing performs valuable coordinative functions on a staff basis for all the m ilitary services. The effectiveness of this office is being further enhanced by the creation of positions of Assistant Secretary for Re search, or Directors of Research, in each of the three services. This pattern of research coordination is in keeping with the best practices m corporate research management. Most research-minded companies do have a vice president of research who has advisory and coordina tion powers over several decentralized research groups in the cor poration. I t is our recommendation that a sound immediate step for achiev ing better research coordination and for stimulating the research ap proach in nondefense activities would be to extend this aspect of the Defense Department’s organizational structure to the other executive departments. In short, there should be created Assistant Secretaries for Research in the Departments of A griculture; S tate; Commerce ; Interior; Health, Education, and W elfare; Justice; Post Office; Labor; and Treasury. These officers would give appropriate stature to research in each Department. Together they would form a group through whom interdepartmental research coordination could begin, just as interservice coordination is now occurring within the D epart ment of Defense. A t the present time, some of the functions of overall coordination and evaluation of the Government’s research programs are assigned to the National Science Foundation, the National Research Council, Interdepartm ental Committee on Scientific Research and Develop ment, and the Bureau of the Budget. The Nation’s total research effort could be more effective if, as a second step, one of these agencies were authorized to extend its coordinative role and to take an active as well as a passive approach in research matters th at cut across depart mental boundaries. F or neither the departmental nor the central research coordinating groups does this paper advocate setting up a whole new agency. Neither do we suggest the creation of entirely new powers of control in any group. We do urge strongly th at the Congress encourage the executive branch to organize itself to do what will be described in suc ceeding paragraphs, and then make sure th at necessary funds are provided, that qualified specialists are employed, and th a t they get about the job. Before describing the central, interdepartmental coordinating func tions that are needed, this paper can possibly put to rest some mis apprehensions that arise inevitably when this subject is brought up for consideration. I t is not proposed th a t any agency, board- com mission, or committee be established to decide what research shall and what research shall not be undertaken by the Federal Govern ment. I t is not proposed th at the central body do any research of its own, except a special kind of research on research th at will be outlined at a later point. I t is not proposed th at every new Federal ECONOMIC GROWTH ANT> STABILITY 1159 research project necessarily be submitted to this body for review before adoption. I t is not proposed th at this body delve into every detail of every Federal research program. W hat is proposed is a body that will provide a management-aid service to the Congress and to the executive department as a whole to help them in making decisions on authorizations, appropriations, and programs. In addition, it is proposed th at this same body be a representative of the Federal Government in contact with research activities outside the Government to bring about more effective cooper ation in the whole research community. In this latter respect it would supplement, not supplant, the contacts now in existence at many levels of research. Finally, it is proposed that this agency constantly seek to stimulate and catalyze private organizations to sponsor and per form research th at is inspired by or derived from the initiative of federally sponsored research. The first task of such a body would be to make an inventory of Federal research programs, their objectives, their plans of approach, their staffing, and their schedules. This would be a perpetual inven tory kept just as current as it may turn out to be feasible to maintain, but certainly brought up to date more frequently than once a year. The second task of such a body would be to examine the inventory to determine what duplications and inconsistencies may exist, so that a full report can be made periodically to affected agencies on the nature and extent of these aspects. I t is not suggested that all dupli cations and inconsistencies be eliminated, for progress in research can often be accomplished expeditiously only by exploration of several approaches simultaneously. We nevertheless think it important that all persons involved know what is going on, so that no more of this kind of thing exist than is consistent with a vigorous and compre hensive attack on the problems which are being examined. The re ports should contain comments on those features which are considered to be clearly of questionable value in this sense. The third task of such a body, and the most important, would be a function that will be called evaluation—for want of a fully descrip tive term. I t is here that research on research comes into the picture. W hat is required is an examination of each research program to dis cover how well its plan of attack matches the objectives set forth for it and, more basically, to discover how well its objectives fit into the dynamic nature of the economy and society it is expected to affect. This examination in turn is dependent upon a well-worked-out con cept of what the set of programs as a whole is expected to accomplish for the Nation. From the foregoing evaluation it should be possible for the coordi nating agency to make the following kinds of contribution to the effec tiveness of Federal research efforts: (1) advise higher levels of effort for programs that are below the required threshold or moving too slowly to meet projected needs of a dynamic technology and economy; (2) recommend removal of support for projects involving unneces sary duplication or for which changing conditions will eliminate the need; (3) identify gaps that justify new projects; (4) interconnect projects that can benefit from interaction of methodology or obser vations. Some progress in research evaluation of this type is being made in connection with certain m ilitary research programs. I t has been 1160 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY found that the unifying principle in many cases is time. In any consideration of our m ilitary offensive and defensive posture and the weapons systems, strategy and tactics required, we must look at these matters in a time frame. I t may be of little importance to us to develop a manned atomic bomber of indefinite cruising range if, by the time we can expect to have such an aircraft operational, it would be likely that a potential enemy would have defense weapons easily capable of knocking such a bomber out of the air a long way from its target. I f we look at our probable offensive and defensive posture in the future as a moving picture—actually as in the case of the moving picture a series of stills at intervals of time—we will be able to see more clearly where efforts are being made that can’t possibly be of much help, when gaps are likely to show up that are not now being worked upon, and, in general, how best to match the research con ducted to the m ilitary requirements. Needless to say, the nonmilitary problems are not necessarily the same as the military. The time-frame idea may not be appropriate in some cases. But many of these nonmilitary problems do have a time reference; for example, the waves of persons expecting to enter the labor force in the future or the exhaustion of supplies of fossil fuels. Others cannot be pinned down so precisely, but are still in some way time phased, so that p art of the degree of urgency can be established by reference to the period of time which will elapse before the problem becomes serious and by reference to the period of time (called lead t ime in m ilitary parlance) in which it m ight be expected that a solution could possibly be achieved and implemented. Another fairly significant task for the research coordinating body would be the making and maintaining of an inventory of research efforts outside the Federal Government which bear upon problems of national interest. This inventory would be useful not only as information available to all research workers, but it would lead to efforts by the Federal Government and by the outside organizations to bring about cooperation in some fields of mutual concern. There is a place for an organization within government which could encourage cooperative research activities among governmental agencies, the private foundations, and private industry. The research coordinating body described in this paper would have no direct power to control research. I t can be effective only to the extent th at its findings and recommendations are so well worked out and supported by evidence that its work received recognition in the deliberations of the Congress and the executive departments. Funda mentally, the outcome of its efforts will depend on the prestige it generates by the quality and independence of its work. B ut good work would depend rather signficantly at the outset upon the standing and support it is given. Not much good can be accom plished by assigning duties and providing a small budget and then throwing the group onto its own. I f it is concluded th at the objectives outlined here are desirable, then the sponsor, the Federal Government, would have to do what is required in all effective research programs— have the confidence to back the efforts strongly from the beginning both with funds and recognition. Such action would have its risks, as in all research; not every investigation would pay out. But the need is so very great that, in the ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY 1161 view of this paper, it must come eventually if not immediately. I f delayed, there will be corresponding loss to the welfare of the country. In this connection, there is every reason to believe that the coordinat ing body would save its cost and, indeed, lead to research results or current programs at less expense than now contemplated. A t the same time, we do not take the position that research expenditures after the establishment of the coordinating group would be likely to be lower than at present. The work of the group would inevitably bring to light fields in which more research would bring about advances of very great worth to the operating of the Federal Government and to the public at large. Through the creation of Assistant Secretaries for Research in each of the nondefense departments and through interdepartmental re search coordination as described above, an acceleration of research on pressing public problems would be bound to occur. This would help to correct the serious disparity between social and technical progress, bringing the former’s straight-line progression more nearly mto con formity with the geometrical rate of technical advance. A p p e n d ix I. T rends in F ederal O R esearch and D evelopm ent b l ig a t io n s For an appreciation of the increase of research and development activity supported by Federal funds, it is necsssary to look at obliga tions for the conduct of current work and for the provision of addi tional research and development plant, without consideration of the pay and allowances of military personnel or certain expenditures financed through m ilitary procurement contracts. The latter two items are included in the current rate of expenditure for research and development of $3 billion, but no estimates are available for them except for the last few years. The obligations for which data are available more than tripled in the years since 1947, growing from $793 million in that year to an estimated $2,880 million in fiscal 1957, as shown in table I. Even if account is taken of probable underreport ing in earlier years and of the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, obligations in real terms have in all likelihood more than doubled. Most of the statistical information given here is based on data from the annual issues of Federal Funds for Science compiled by the Na tional Science Foundation and from the annual Federal budgets. These data, however, have been supplemented by estimates of unre ported data, have been reworked, and have been presented in different ways to highlight some of the issues which are emphasized in this paper. No attempt is made to separate applied from basic research in these analyses, as the latter is relatively small in amount. While the source figures are indicative of the general position of Federal research and development and some of its aspects, it must be admitted that the accuracy is something less than might be desired. As the Foundation remarks in its reports, the data were obtained from the agencies concerned and in many cases were estimates based on judgment determinations of what should or should not be included. Many difficulties of definition exist, and accounts are not kept in such form that even approximations can be obtained without considerable effort. I f the view taken by this paper is correct—th a t much of the 97735— 57------ 75 1162 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY effectiveness of decisions relating to the selection of equipment, meth ods, and policies depends upon the adequacy of the research th at pre cedes such decisions—it would appear that even more effort should be made to find out what research is going on. The difficulties, and in deed they are formidable, should not be allowed to deter the making of a major effort. I t is conceivable that what is needed is not more funds but a better allocation of the amount currently being expended. The following set of comparisons deals with defense research (termed “national security” research and development by the Bureau of the B udget). The data refer to obligations by fiscal years for the conduct of current work and for increase in plant. M ilitary pay and activities financed by procurement contracts are not included. Table I shows Federal research and development obligations for each year from 1947 through 1957. Table I I shows obligations for research and development related to national security and compares them with national defense expenditures for goods and services. In formation on nondefense agencies is summarized in table I I I . Table IV provides data on Federal and private nondefense research expendi tures and compares them with the value of the activities they support. T able I .— Federal research and development obligations,1 fiscal years [In millions of dollars] Year 1947............. ............................................................. ............................ 1948................................................... .................................................... 1949............. . . . ................ — ........................................................... 1950_______________ ___________________________ _________ _____ . . . _ 1951____________ ______________________ 1952......................... ...................................................... ..................... 1953. . . ________________________________________________ _ 1954............................................................................................ 1955................................................................................................. 1956. ............... .................. ................................................................ 1957________________________ _______________________________ Conduct of work 722 781 954 1,041 1,521 1,909 1,919 1,762 1,927 2,231 2,520 Plant Total 71 91 167 203 330 307 248 156 207 350 360 793 877 1,121 1,244 1,851 2,216 2,167 1,918 2,134 2,581 2,880 Total in 1947 dollars 793 873 1,092 1,170 1 625 1,854 1, 845 1,629 1,757 2,124 2,210 i Included in these figures are the amounts obligated for general-purpose statistics which have been excluded by the National Science Foundation in its last 2 reports. They have been restored for purposes of this paper because (1) they provide im portant data for the making of management decisions both by Government and industry; (2) they have a t least as much research content as m any of the programs still included; and (3) while there is some variation from year to year, other programs still included vary much more. The National Science Foundation appears to have Included no obligations for the M anhattan Engineer District in 1947. This was the transition period to the Atomic Energy Commission. No doubt this treatm ent is strictly accurate from the point of view of obligations, but it makes the AEC figure in 1947 appear very small. Half the reported expenditures for M E D are added to AEC obligations. Defla tion is by the implicit deflator for Federal Government purchases of goods and services as published by the National Income Division, Oflice of Business Economics, Department of Commerce. 1163 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY T a ble II. — 'National security (defense) obligations for research and development, fiscal years [In billions of dollars] Conduct of work Year 1947.......................................— 1948___________________ ____ 1949________________________ 1950________________________ 1951______________ ____ ____ 1952__________________ _____ 1953_____ __________________ 1954________________________ 1955............................- ................ 1956______ ____ ______ ____ 1957................... ....................... - 0.629 .662 .802 .813 1.327 1.726 1.730 1.560 1.668 1.930 2.125 P lant1 ■ m1 Combined Combined plant and in 1947 conduct dollars 0.083 .081 .080 .088 .098 .127 .152 .171 - 179 .196 .233 0.712 .743 .882 .901 1.425 1.853 1.882 1.731 1.847 2.126 2.358 0.712 .740 .859 .847 1.250 1.550 1.601 1.471 1. 520 1.679 1.806J National security purchases Ratio, re search and develop ment to national security purchases 13.3 13.7 18.4 17.9 25.7 45.2 51.5 47.6 41.3 41.2 44.7 5.4 5.4 4.8 5.0 5.5 4.1 3.7 3.6 4.5 5.2 5.3 i Obligations to increase plant have been amortized over a period of years. The adjustment was very rough because little is known of the appropriate depreciation rate and, in any event, only a few years’ data are available. The plant obligations were spread on a straight-line basis over the 8 years following the year of obligation. Nothing was known of the accumulation in 1947 and it was assumed that, a t that time, plant bore the same relationship to obligations for conduct of work as in 1955. The figure so obtained was reduced by in 1948, % in 1949, etc., until elimination in 1955. The real objective of this process was to spread the plant obligations so they would not be bunched, and the only justification of the process is that it gave what appeared to be reasonable results. T able III. — Federal obligations for research and development agencies other than national security agencies, fiscal years [In millions of dollars] Year Conduct of work 1 P la n t2 1947__________ __________________________ 104.6 7.6 1948_____________ ____ ______ _________ _ 134.3 7.9 1949___________________________ _________ 156.0 8.5 184.8 10.4 1950_____________________________________ 1951 _ .............................................................. 179.2 13.8 1952.......................................................................... 185.9 15.1 1953 .............. ............................................. 197.0 16.4 1954_____________________ _____ _________ 213.0 17.5 1955 .................................................................. 249.6 18.2 1956 ....................................................... 304.9 17.7 1957....... .................................................................. 350.0 17.8 Combined plant and conduct 112.2 142.2 164.5 195.2 193.0 201.0 213.4 230.5 267.8 322.6 367.8 Combined in 1947 dollars 112.2 141.7 162.0 183.6 169.3 168.1 181.6 195.8 220.2 244.7 281.3 * Obligations for periodic census programs do not show any time trend and have been evened out over the years by attributing to each year the average for the years 1945 to 1957. 2 Amortized by the same process employed for national security research plant. 1164 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STABILITY IV.— Federal and private business expenditures for nonsecurity research compared with selected Federal and private production activities, fiscal years T able [In millions of dollars] Year 1947................................... ................ ............. 1948_____ _____________________ _____ 1949______ __________________________ 1950_________ ______ ___________ _____ 1951.................... ........ ..................................... 1952....................... .......................................... 1953................................... ....................... . 1954.............................................. - ............... 1955_________________________________ 1956_____ ______ _____ ______ _______ Federal research 90 120 140 160 170 180 190 190 220 270 Private business research 1,410 1,650 1,620 1,640 1,870 2,050 2,220 2,450 2,800 3,230 Total 1,500 1,770 1,760 1,800 2,040 2,230 2,410 2,640 3,020 3,500 Ratio, re search and P ro d u ct1 develop m ent to product (percent) 112,200 132,300 139,100 143,900 161,900 177,200 187,500 189,100 192,500 207,500 1.34 1.34 1.26 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.28 1.39 1.57 1.69 1 Gross product in agriculture, mining, manufacturing, transportation, communications, public utilities, and medical health plus Federal nondefense purchases of goods and services.
@FedFRASER