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Employment Projections
for the 1980's







Employment Projections
for the 1980's
U.S. Department of Labor
Ray Marshall, Secretary
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner
June 1979
Bulletin 2030







For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D .C . 20402
Stock No. 029-001-02312-0

Preface

This bulletin presents the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of
the U.S. economy to 1990. It consists of reprints of four articles from the
Monthly Labor Review. A few minor corrections have been made to some
of the tables as originally printed, and supplementary tables containing data
frequently requested have been added as appendixes to three of the articles.
These projections are part of the ongoing program of the Bureau of Labor
Statistics for study of alternative patterns of economic growth. For the
historical input-output data upon which the projections are based, see Time
Series Data for Input-Output Industries, Bulletin 2005 (1979). Bulletins on
methodology and the input-output models used are scheduled for publi­
cation at a later date.
Material in this publication is in the public domain and may be repro­
duced without permission. Please credit the Bureau of Labor Statistics and
cite Employment Projections for the 1980’ Bulletin 2030.
s,




in

Contents

Page
Labor force projections to 1990: three possible paths...............................................................................
Population tre n d s.....................................................................................................................................
Problems in projecting participation.......................................................................................................
The three basic paths.................................................................................................................................
Intermediate growth p a th ........................................................................................................................
High-growth scenario.................................................................................................................................
Low-growth scenario.................................................................................................................................
Socioeconomic im plications....................................................................................................................
Summary and conclusions........................................................................................................................
Tables:
1. Civilian labor force participation rates based on three different growth paths to 1990...........
2. Civilian noninstitutional population, by age, sex, and race; actual 1970 and 1977,
projected 1985 and 1990
3. Civilian labor force participation rate by sex,, age, and race, to 1990.......................................
4. Civilian labor force by sex, age, and race; actual 1970 and 1977, projected 1985 and 1990 . .
5. Labor force distribution, by sex, age, and race, to 1990 .............................................................

1
2
3
4
5
6
6
7
8
2
3
4
5
7

Appendix. General assumptions and methodology............................................................................... • 9
The U.S. economy to 1990: two projections for growth..........................................................................
Major assumptions.....................................................................................................................................
Aggregate demand................................................................................... ..................................................
Income distribution................................................................................................................................ .
Employment and hours...........................................................................................................................
The high employment alternative...........................................................................................................
Tables:
1. Gross national product by major component, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1977, and projected to
1980, 1985, and 1990..........
2. The derivation of personal income, 1955, 1968, 1973, and 1977, and projected to 1980,
1985, and 1990........
3. Labor force, employment, productivity, and gross national product, 1955, 1968, 1973,
and 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990..................................................................
Appendix. Supplementary tables on gross national product, government account, and major
assumptions, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990:
A-l. Gross national product by major component (current d o llars).......................................
A-2. Gross national product by major component (average annual rates of change,
current dollars)..................................................................................................................
A-3. Government account, national income basis......................................................................
A-4. Major exogenous assumptions..............................................................................................
Industry output and employment: BLS projections to 1990....................................................................
Overview of the economy through 1990.................................................................................................
Output by industry...................................................................................................................................



IV

12
12
14
17
19
21

16
18
20

23
23
24
24
25
25
27

Contents — Continued
Page
Employment by in d u stry ........................................................................................................................
Output the main factor in job forecast........................................... ......................................................
High employment alternative..................................................................................................................

^2
35
35

Tables:
1. Average annual rate of change in GNP and major determinants, actual and projected,
selected periods 1959-90..........................................................................................................
2. Distribution of GNP by major components, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90 . . .
3. Gross product originating by major sector, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 . . . .
4. Employment by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1968-90...................................
5. Total employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 ..................
6. Changing share of government employment, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90...

26
27
28
30
32
35

Charts:
1: Gross product originating in the total private economy, by major sector,
selected years 1959-77, and projections to 1980, 1985, and 1990 ........................................
2. Total employment by major sector, selected years 1959-77, and projections to 1980,
1985, and 1990............
Appendix. Supplementary tables on output and employment by industry:
A-l. Gross domestic output, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 .................................
A-2. Average weekly hours and hours of all persons, actual and projected, selected years
1977-90 .. .................... ............ .............................................................................................
A-3. Factors affecting changes in employment, 1977-90..................................................................

29
34
37
40
43

Changing patterns of demand: BLS projections to 1990.......................................................................... 1 46
Assumptions: laying the groundw ork..................................................................................................... 46
Personal consumption expenditures ....................................................................................................... 47
Gross private domestic investm ent......................................................................................................... 49
Foreign trade.............................................................................................................................................. 51
The Government sector............................................................................................................................. 51
Industry structure of dem and.................................................................................................................. 53
The higher employment alternative......................................................................................................... 54
Tables:
1. Personal consumption expenditures, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90 ......................
2. Personal consumption expenditures, average annual rates of changes, actual and
projected, 1959-90 ....................................................
3. Gross private domestic investment, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90 ..................
4. Net exports, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90 .........................................................
5. Government purchases, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90.......................................
6. GNP by major industry sector, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90 ........................

48
49
50
52
53
54

Appendix. Supplementary tables on gross national product and final demand components by
Economic Growth sector, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990:
A -l. Gross national product ............................. ............................................................................ 55
A-2. Personal consumption expenditures.................................................................................. 58
A-3.
Personal consumption expenditures, durables.................................................................. 61
A-4.
Personal consumption expenditures, nondurables........................................................... 62
A-5.
Personal consumption expenditures, services.................................................................... 64
A-6. Gross private domestic investment ...................................................................................... 65



v

Contents — Continued
Page
A -l.
A-8.
A-9.
A-10.
A-l 1.
A-12.
A -l3.
A-14.
A -l5.
A-16.
A-17.
A-18.
A-19.
A-20.
A-21.
A-22.
A-23.

Nonresidential investment, to ta l..........................................................................................
Nonresidential investment, equipm ent...............................................................................
Nonresidential investment, structures.................................................................................
Residential investment, structures................................................ .......................................
Change in business inventories...................................................................... .....................
Net exports............................................................................................................................
Exports...................................................................................................................................
Im ports...................................................................................................................................
Government purchases.........................................................................................................
Federal Government purchases, t o t a l .................................................................................
Federal Government purchases, defense.............................................................................
Federal Government purchases, nondefense......................................................................
State and local government purchases, to ta l......................................................................
State and local government purchases, education.............................................................
State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and san itatio n ..........................
State and local government purchases, safety ....................................................................
State and local government purchases, other......................................................................




VI

68
69
70
71
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
93
96
99
101
103
105

Labor force projections to 1990:
three possible paths
High, low, and intermediate rates
o f projected growth to 1990 all show
a drop from the 1970-77 pace; in each,
women's participation rates keep rising,
the rates for men rise only with high growth
P a u l O F l a im

and

H ow ard N

F ullerto n, Jr .

For the first time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
has developed three significantly different projec­
tions of future growth for the U.S. work force.
Although based on different assumptions about the
labor force participation rates for various popula­
tion groups, all three scenarios anticipate declining
rates of labor force growth. As shown in table 1,
only during the near-term 1977-85 period and only
under high-growth assumptions would the labor
force continue to expand at the unprecedented 2.3percent rate of the 1970’s. Behind the general
slowdown in labor force growth is the sharp drop
of the birth rate in the 1960’s, which means fewer
youths will be reaching working age in the 1980’s.
Based on underlying population trends, the scenar­
ios for high, low, and intermediate labor force
growth can be summarized as follows:

Low growth. The civilian labor force would grow to
only 114 million by 1990. The participation rates
for women would grow at a much slower pace,
corresponding with a projected increase in current­
ly low fertility rates; their participation rate would
reach only 54 percent. The rates for men and older
workers of both sexes would continue to drift
downward at about the same rates as in the 1970’s.
Intermediate growth. The civilian labor force would
grow to 119 million persons by 1990 under this
moderate-growth 'assumption. The participation
rate of women would continue to advance at its
current pace until 1985, then taper off with more
As explained in this article, the takeoff points used in making
the three sets o f projections are 1977 annual averages. Calculated
in early 1978, the projections have the following implicit labor
force levels for 1978: high growth, 100.1 million; low growth, 97.3
million; and intermediate growth, 99.7 million.
The extremely rapid pace o f labor force growth that unexpect­
edly continued through the first half o f 1978 now indicates that the
increase between the annual averages for 1977 and 1978 will
approach 3 million. This growth is 1 million higher than the
average annual gains posted during the 1970-77 period. As a
result, the 1978 actual annual average probably will be slightly
above the level implicit in the high-growth scenario. It is, o f
course, much too early to tell how this development will affect
labor force growth to 1985 and 1990. However, it is suggested that
those who use these projections to construct their own estimates o f
the labor force for the next 2 or 3 years note how the actual labor
force growth during the 1977-78 period compares with the growth
implicit in these long-term projections.

High growth. The civilian labor force would reach
126 million persons by 1990, primarily based on a
continuing surge in the labor force participation
rates of women, which would reach 60 percent.
Participation rates for black men would reverse
their recent downward trend and nearly equal the
slightly increased 80-percent rate of white men.
Rates for older workers would decline only
slightly.
Paul O. Flaim is chief, Division o f Labor Force Studies, Bureau o f
Labor Statistics. Howard N Fullerton, Jr., is a labor economist in the
same division. An earlier version o f this article was presented at the
annual meeting o f the American Statistical Association held in San
Diego in August 1978.




1

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • Labor Force Projections to 1990
Table 1. Civilian labor force participation ratea based on three different growth paths to 1990
Civilian labor fore*
Civilian labor force participation rates

Growth path*

Actual
(in millions)

Annual parcant change1
(in million*)
1970

1977

1990

1977

1985

1990

to

1977

1985

1990

60.4

62.3

67.7
65.3
63.0

69.7
66.2
63.0

1.0
.7
.4

79.7

77.7

79.4
77.0
74.7

80.0
76.4
73.3

2.0
1.7
1.3

43.3

48.4

57.1
54.8
52.4

60.4
57.1
53.8

1970
Total
High growth
Interm ediate
Low growth
Men
High growth
Interm ediate
Low growth
Women
High growth
Interm ediate
Low growth

1985

to

Projected

Actual

1985

to

1977

path ...................................................
growth p a th .......................................
path
.

82.7

97.4

117.0
113.0
108.9

125.6
119.4
113.5

2.3

2.3
1.9
1.4

1.4
1.1
.8

path ...................................................
growth p a th .......................................
p a th .....................................................

51.2

57.4

65.0
63.0
61.2

68.2
65.1
62.5

1.7

1.6
1.2
.8

path ...................................................
growth p a th .......................................
p a th .....................................................

31.5

40.0

52.0
49.9
47.7

57.4
54.3
51.0

3.4

3.3
2.8
2.2

1970

1Compounded continuously.

migration trends. The decennial census is used as
the starting points for the projections. It has long
been known that census counts are deficient for
some groups.4 Despite these problems, the basic
trends in the size and configuration of the
American population can be charted with some
assurance from now to 1990. The changes implicit
in these trends will have a great impact on the
growth of the labor force.
Perhaps the most important feature of the
population dynamics for the 1980’s will be the
sharp decline in the number of youths age 16 to 24,
which is an inevitable consequence of the drop in
the birth rate during the 1960’s. Reflecting this
development, the civilian noninstitutional popula­
tion age 16 and over, which should grow by 26.8
million or 19.6 percent from 1970 to 1980, is
projected to grow by only 16.4 million or 10.0
percent from 1980 to 1990.
The population trends for the major age-sexrace groups are shown in table 2. The “net
changes” columns in this table show most dramati­
cally how the past growth of the teenage ranks will
be reversed between now and 1985 and how, with
some obvious delay, this process also will affect the
ranks of those age 20 to 24. Clearly, there will be
many fewer young persons in the late 1980’s than
is the case today.
Another important demographic development is
that, while the teenage ranks thin, the population
in the central age groups will swell, as the millions
of persons bom in the post-World-War II baby
boom reach middle age. The sharp drop in the
youth population combined with the crowding of
the baby-boom cohorts into middle age will have a
large impact on the growth and configuration of
the Nation’s labor force. Labor force growth,
however, is also a function of the trends in labor
force participation among the various population

moderate increases to reach a 57-percent participa­
tion level by 1990. The rates for men would
continue to drop, but at a more moderate pace.
This would also be the case for older workers.
It is the custom of BLS to update and revise its
labor force projections every 2 or 3 years. The
updates and revisions are necessary because the
actual path of labor force growth has often
diverged considerably from the projections. This
has been especially the case during the 1970’s,
when the phenomenal growth of women in the
labor force has far exceeded the projections by
BLS—as well as those of many other forecasters.
The reasons for the divergences between projec­
tions and the actual labor force trends were the
topic of a special evaluation by BLS.1 On the basis
of this evaluation, some changes in the methodolo­
gy have been introduced in making a new round of
projections. In addition, three alternative sets of
projections, rather than the typical single projec­
tion, have been prepared.2
Population trends

In making labor force projections, BLS generally
has relied upon the population projections pre­
pared by the Bureau of the Census; this procedure
was followed once again. The specific population
estimates used were those published by the Bureau
of the Census in July 1977, covering the 1977-2050
period.3 The population data for the period
covered by this round of labor force projections—
only 12 years—contain little uncertainty. After all,
even the persons who will be 16 years of age in
1990 are already 4 years old, and thus can be
counted with reasonable accuracy.
There are, of course, some minor problems even
in projecting a population that can be counted.
Important assumptions must be made about the
future course of mortality rates and about net



2

groups. The projections of these trends is fraught
with much more uncertainty than the projections
of population trends.

future scenario that is either physically impossi­
b le -su c h as labor force participation rates exceed­
ing 100 percent or dropping below zero—or a
situation that seems highly implausible given the
prevailing notions about what the future will (or
should) be like, BLS analysts have intervened to
alter the course of the extrapolated line.
To illustrate one of the latter problems, if labor
force participation rates of women age 25 to 29—
one of the principal childbearing groups—were
extrapolated linearly from their rapidly rising
trends of the 1970’s, they would cross the rates for
men of comparable age before the 1980’s are over.
Could this be visualized as a plausible situation?
We think not, even if the fertility rate, which is one
of the determinants of labor force participation for
this group, remains at its currently depressed
levels. And should the fertility rate rise sig­
nificantly, these women could hardly be expected
to enter the job market in ever larger numbers.
Therefore, in projecting the labor force participa-

Problems in projecting participation

In projecting the labor force participation rates
of the various population groups, BLS generally
has relied on extrapolation of the historical trends
in the rates for these groups. This procedure, with
some modifications, was followed again in making
these new sets of projections. The possibility of
tying the participation projections to the future
course of other variables which are known to
influence participation—wage rates, for example—
was considered, but was rejected as impractical.
Also considered—but deferred at least until further
research is conducted—was the option of making
“cohort” projections, where specific groups are
followed through time.
This is not to say that the projections presented
here are based on purely linear—and mechani­
cal-extrapolation of historical trends. They are
not. Where extrapolation of past trends yields a

Table 2. Civilian noninstttutlonal population, by age, sex, and race; actual 1970 and 1977, projected 1985 and 1990
[Numbers in thousands]
Actual
population

Projected
population

Not changes

Sex, age, and race

Annual percent change1

1970
1977

1905

1990

IM S

1970

1977

1995

1977

1970

1977
1995

19M

1977

1995

19M

to

Total, age 16 and o v e r..........................................
Men, age 16 and over..............................................
16 to 24 .........................................................
16 to 1 9 ...........................
20 to 2 4 .....................................................................
25 to 54 .............................................................
55 and over .......................
55 to 6 4 .......................................
65 and over ..............
Women, age 16 and o v e r___
16 to 24 .............................
16 to 1 9 ...........................
20 to 2 4 ...............................................
25 to 54 ...............................
55 and over ..............................................................
55 to 64 .......................................................................
65 and over ........................................

136,995
64,261
13,993
7,142
6,851
33,592
16,677
8,588
8,089
72,734
15,824
7,371
8,453
36,354
20,556
9,649
10,907

156,426
73,963
17,363
8,167
9,196
37,885
18,714
9,518
9,196
82,462
18,166
8,303
9,863
40,574
23,717
10,648
13,069

172,935
81,851
16,320
6,874
9,446
44,714
20,817
10,217
10,600
91,064
17,098
7,016
10,082
47,363
26,623
11,292
15,331

180,236
85,265
14,657
6,477
8,180
49,240
21,368
9,820
11,548
94,971
15,409
6,596
8,813
52,067
27,495
10,738
16,757

19,431
9,702
3,370
1,025
2,345
4,293
2,037
930
1,107

While
Total, age 16 and over .........................
Men age 16 and over ..................................................
16 to 2 4 .........................................................................
25 to 54 .............................
55 and over ...............................................................
Women, age 16 and over ......................................
16 to 24 .......................................................
25 to 54 .............................
55 and over ...................................................

122,112
57,488
12,160
30,104
15,224
64,624
13,704
32,106
18,812

137,595
65,478
14,964
33,597
16,917
72,117
15,407
35,245
21,465

150,057
71,525
13,717
39,123
18,685
78,532
14,166
40,488
23,878

14,883
6,773
1,832
3,488
1,454
8,110
2,118
4,247
1,744

18,831
6,486
2,401
4,288
1,796
10,345
2,759
5,333
2,252

22,836
10,293
2,586
5,574
2,133
12,543
2,914
6,876
2,753

Mack and olier
Total, age 16 and o v e r..........................................
Men, age 16 and over.................................................
16 to 2 4 ...........................................................
25 to 54 ...................................................
55 and over ..............................................................
Women, age 16 and over ............................................
16 to 2 4 ..............................
25 to 5 4 .................
55 and over ............

to

to

to

to

7,301
3,414
•1,663
-397
-1,266
4,526
551
-397
948
3,887
•1,689
-420
-1269
4,704
872
-554
1,426

169
2.01
3.08
1.92
421
1.72
1.65
1.47
163
1.79
167
1.70
220
167
2.04
1.41
268

1.25
127
-.77
-2.15
.34
2.07
1.33
.89
1.78
1.24
-.76
-2.11
27
1.93
1.44
.73
2.00

0.83
.82
-2.15
-1.19
-2.88
1.93
.52
-.79
1.71
.84
-2.06
-1.23
-2.69
1.89
.64
-1.01
1.78

15,483
7,990
2,804
3,493
1,693
7,493
1,703
3,137
2,653

12,462
6,047
-1,247
5,526
1,768
6,415
-1241
5,243
2,413

4,944
2,350
-1,642
3,637
355
2,594
-1,636
3,658
572

1.71
166
266
167
161
167
1.67
163
168

1.06
1.10
-1.09
1.90
1.24
1.07
-1.05
1.73
1.33

.65
.65
-2.55
1.78
.38
.65
-2.45
1.73
.47

25,171
11,339
2,559
6,454
2,326
13,832
2,860
7,922
3,050

3

2,162

16,509
7,888
-1,043
•1,293
250
6,829
2,103
699
1,404
8,622
-1,068
-1,287
219
6,789
2,906
644
2,262

155,001
73,875
12,075
42,760
19,040
81,126
12,530
44,146
24,450

' Compounded continuously.




to

3,948
1,713
569
800
342
2,235
641
1,086
508

4,005
1,807
185
1,286
337
2,198
155
1,543
501

2,335
1,046
-27
880
193
1,289
-54
1,046
297

366
322
366
2.95
3.02
3.48
3.78
325
3.65

2.41
2.41
.93
3.28
2.15
2.41
.68
3.18
2.51

1.95
1.94
-.21
2.93
1.73
1.96
-.37
2.83
2.05

9,728
2,342
982
1,410
4,220
3,161
999

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • Labor Force Projections to 1990

tion rates for women, it seemed logical to apply the
constraint that these rates not be allowed to cross
the participation rates for men of comparable age.
A dilemma of a slightly different nature arises in
making separate projections of labor force growth
by race. Here, linear extrapolations of historical
trends yield an ever-larger gap between the
participation rate of white men and the already
much lower rate of black men. Although certainly
plausible, such a future scenario can be hardly
reconciled with a National policy intended to lead
to an equalization of employment opportunity for
the two races.
Aside from such obvious problems, many other
areas of uncertainty with regard to the future
trends in participation can be listed. Take, for
example, the extent to which the youth of the
future might choose school over work, or vice
versa; the possible impact of recent changes in
retirement legislation on the labor force activity of
older workers; and the future course of transfer
payments and their possible impact on the propen­
sity to work among recipients in all age groups. To
deal more effectively with these and other uncer­
tainties, three different sets of projections, rather
than a single one, were prepared.

growth projections trace the steep upward-sloping
path that these rates would have to follow if they
were to reach the high-growth rate for white men
by the year 2000. (Ajnd the latter, as noted above,
were generally held constant at current levels.)
For some black groups, the high-growth projec­
tions would entail a sharp departure from the
trends in participation exhibited over the past two
decades. Although such a complete turnaround is
unlikely (a few age groups have experienced recent
gains), such projections are useful in illustrating
what has been accomplished and what remains to
be done in order to have blacks sharing equally in
the economic progress of the Nation.
There is also a considerable degree of common­
ality among the three sets of projections in terms of
the most basic changes in the age configuration of
the labor force. Because the important changes in
the population structure are reflected in all three
sets of projections, each shows a large decline in
the size of the youth labor force and a big increase
in the labor force accounted for by persons age 25
to 54. (These changes in the size and configuration
of the labor force are shown in absolute terms in
table 4.) Now, we will examine the basic
Table 3. Civilian labor force participation rate by sex,
age, and race, to 1990

The three basic paths

Although yielding significantly different results
in terms of the overall labor force levels for 1985
and 1990, the three sets of projections still have a
considerable degree of commonality among them.
All three are based on assumptions of: further rises
in the labor force participation rates of teenagers
of both sexes; considerable further gains in labor
force activity among women in the central age
groups; and further declines in the participation
rates of older workers of both sexes. (See table 3.)
With regard to these three groups and, particular­
ly, with regard to whites in these groups, the three
sets of projections point in the same general
directions and differ only in terms of the expected
rate of change.
With regard to the participation rates for men in
the central age groups, those for whites are again
projected to diverge little under the three alterna­
tive growth paths. Generally, they are held con­
stant in the high-growth projections, decline only
very slightly in the intermediate-growth projec­
tions, and are allowed to decline a bit more in the
low-growth projections.
The group for which the three sets of projections
differ most radically in terms of direction (or sign)
are black men. For this group, the low-growth
projections follow the declining path which has
been evident in recent years, whereas the high


[Percent]
Actual
Sex, age, and race

Projected
UI.L
rwgn
growth

Intermediate
growth

Low
“
growin

1970

1985
Total, age 16 and over
Men, age 16 and over . . .
16 to 24 .........................
16 to 1 9 .......................
20 to 24 .......................
25 to 54 .........................
55 and over ...................
55 to 64 .......................
65 and over .................
Women, age 16 and over
16 to 2 4 .........................
16 to 1 9 .......................
20 to 24 .......................
25 to 54 .........................
55 and over ...................
55 to 64 .......................
65 and over .................

1977

1990

1985

1990

1985

1990

60.4
79.7
69.4
56.1
83.3
95.8
55.7
83.0
26.8
43.3
51.3
44.0
57.7
50.1
25.3
43.0
9.7

62.3
77.7
74.1
61.0
85.7
94.2
47.5
74.0
20.1
48.4
59.6
51.4
66.5
58.4
22.9
41.0
8.1

67.7
79.4
78.9
66.8
87.8
95.1
46.1
73.5
19.7
57.1
73.2
63.5
79.9
70.9
22.1
41.5
7.8

69.7
80.0
81.0
70.8
89.1
95.6
43.5
73.3
18.1
60.4
78.2
68.9
85.2
76.1
20.7
41.8
7.2

65.3
77.0
76.4
63.6
85.7
93.5
41.9
68.1
16.7
54.8
69.8
59.7
76.8
68.5
21.0
40.2
6.8

66.2
76.4
76.1
64.8
85.0
93.1
38.0
65.0
15.0
57.1
72.8
62.8
80.4
72.4
19.3
39.8
6.2

63.0
74.7
74.4
61.5
83.7
92.2
37.5
64.1
11.9
52.4
66.2
55.4
73.7
65.9
19.5
38.1
5.9

63.0
73.3
73.3
61.9
82.4
91.1
32.2
59.0
9.4
53.8
67.3
56.8
75.2
69.0
17.2
36.6
4.8

60.2
80.0
70.2
96.3
55.8
42.6
52.1
48.8
24.9

62.6
78.5
76.2
94.9
48.0
48.1
61.8
57.6
22.7

67.9
79.9
80.7
95.6
46.4
57.1
76.5
71.1
21.8

69.8
80.2
82.4
95.8
43.6
60.4
81.6
76.6
20.3

65.9
77.9
79.6
94.4
42.2
54.9
73.7
68.5
20.7

66.9
77.4
80.2
94.1
38.1
57.4
77.7
72.9
19.0

63.5
75.7
77.8
93.1
37.7
52.4
70.0
65.7
19.3

63.7
74.3
77.9
92.1
32.2
53.9
72.0
69.3
17.0

61.8
76.5
64.5
91.9
54.8
49.5
46.2
59.1
30.0

60.0
71.0
60.7
88.6
43.0
50.9
47.4
63.6
25.2

65.9
76.5
70.4
92.1
43.4
57.2
57.5
70.1
24.8

68.9
79.2
75.3
94.2
42.1
60.5
64.1
733
23.8

61.7
70.5
59.6
87.5
39.3
54.4
51.4
68.2
23.1

62.0
69.9
57.4
86.9
36.8
55.5
52.0
69.9
21.6

59.6
68.2
56.5
86.0
36.1
52.6
48.0
67.1
21.2

58.9
66.6
52.5
84.7
31.9
52.7
47.2
67.7
18.7

White
Total, age 16 and over
Men, age 16 and o v e r. . .
16 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 .........................
55 and over ...................
Women, age 16 and over
16 to 2 4 .........................
25 to 54 .........................
55 and over ...................

Black and odier
Total, age 16 and over
Men, age 16 and over . . .
16 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 .........................
55 and over ...................
Women, age 16 and over
16 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 ........................
55 and over ...................

4

Table 4. Civilian labor force by aex, age, and race; actual 1970 and 1977, prelected 1985 and 1990
[N u m b e rs in th o u s a n d s ]

Pro|§ctod
S n , aga, and race

1970

. .
-«■-»■
*
im erm eow e yrvw u:

High powth

1977

Low growth

1990

1916
Total, ag« 16 and o v e r.....................................................................
Man, age 16 and o v e r.......................................................................
16 to 24 .........................
16 to 1 9 ...............................................................
20 to 24 ...............................................................................
25 to 54 ...............................................
55 and over ...............................................................
55 to 6 4 .............................
65 and o v e r.....................................................
Woman, aga 16 and over .......................................................................
16 to 24 ...................................................................
16 to 1 9 .....................................................
20 to 24 .........................................
25 to 54 .........................................................................
55 and over .............................................................................
55 to 64 ...................................................
65 and over .............................

1990

1995

1990

1995

82,715
51,195
9,715
4,006
5,709
32,193
9,288
7,124
2,164
31,520
8,115
3,241
4,874
18,196
5,209
4,153
1,056

97,401
57,449
12,862
4,985
7,877
35,698
8,888
7,043
1,845
39,952
10,823
4,267
6,556
23,692
5,432
4,367
1,065

117,005
65,013
12,882
4,589
8,293
42,533
9,598
7,506
2,092
51,992
12,510
4,457
8,053
33,596
5,886
4,683
1,203

125,603
68,220
11,879
4,587
7,292
47,056
9,285
7,197
2,088
57,383
12,054
4,546
7,508
39,630
5,699
4,487
1,212

112,953
63,007
12,465
4,374
8,091
41,824
8,718
6,953
1,766
49,945
11,934
4,192
7,742
32,432
5,580
4,536
1,044

119,366
65,115
11,156
4,199
6,957
45,845
8,114
6,383
1,731
54,253
11,225
4,139
7,086
37,713
5,313
4,270
1,043

106,900
61,166
12,134
4,225
7,909
41,219
7,616
6,551
1,265
47,731
11,315
3,887
7,428
31,220
5,196
4,297
899

113,521
62,472
10,744
4,007
6,737
44,844
6,884
5,796
1,088
51,049
10,375
3,749
6,626
35,942
4,732
3,925
807

73,518
46,013
8,533
28,968
8,492
27,506
7,135
15,684
4,686

86,107
51,421
11,405
31,900
8,116
34,686
9,525
20,307
4,864

101,951
57,137
11,064
37,399
8,674
44,614
10,635
28,777
5,202

106^53
59,234
9,964
40,976
8,304
49,019
10,219
33,826
4,974

98,876
55,753
10,925
36,949
7,879
43,123
10,437
27,743
4,943

103,751
57,185
9,689
40,237
7,259
46,566
9,736
32,178
4,652

95,285
54,147
10,676
36,425
7,046
41,138
9,915
26,610
4,613

96,686
54,921
9,401
39,380
6,140
43,765
9,024
30,579
4,162

9,197
5,182
1,181
3,205
797
4,015
979
2,512
523

11,294
6,028
1,458
3,798
772
5,266
1,307
3,390
568

15,058
7,879
1,820
5,134
925
7,179
1,675
4,820
684

17,350
8,986
1,926
6,080
980
8,364
1,834
5,804
726

14,079
7,256
1,542
4,875
839
6,823
1,497
4,690
636

15,615
7,930
1,468
5,606
656
7,683
1,488
5,537
660

13,618
7,022
1,460
4,792
770
6,596
1,400
4,612
584

14,836
7,550
1,343
5,464
743
7,286
1,351
5,364
571

WMo
Total, aga 16 and o v e r.....................................................................
Man, age 16 and o v e r.........................................
16 to 24 ...................................................
25 to 54 ...................................................
55 and over .................................................
Woman, aga 16 and over .......................................................................
16 to 24 .................................................................................................
25 to 54 .................................................................................................
55 and over ...........................................................................................

M ack and oM er
Total, aga 16 and o v e r.....................................................................
Man, aga 16 and o v e r.............................................................................
16 to 2 4 .................................................................................
25 to 5 4 .................................................................................................
55 and over ...........................................................................................
Woman, aga 16 and over .......................................................................
16 to 24 .........................................................................................
25 to 54 ...........................................................................
55 and over ...........................................................................................

^

differences among the three sets of projections and
their underlying assumptions.

moderate rate o f increase. Under these assumptions, the
overall rate o f labor force participation for women would
rise from its 48.4-percent average for 1977 to 54.8 percent
by 1985, reaching 57.1 percent by 1990.

Intermediate growth path

• For older workers, both men and women, labor force
participation would continue to decline under this scenario,
but at a much slower pace relative to the drop registered
over the 1970-77 period. For men age 55 and over, the
labor force participation rate would drop from 47.5 to 38.0
percent between 1977 and 1990; for women age 55 and
over, the rate would edge down from 22.9 to 19.3 percent
over the same period.

Under the intermediate-growth assumptions, the
civilian labor force would reach 113.0 million by
1985 and 119.4 million by 1990. Contributing to
this growth would be the expansion of the
working-age population and a rise in the civilian
labor force participation rate from 62.3 percent in
1977 to 66.2 percent by 1990.
The basic assumptions which underlie this
scenario are as follows:

• Continuing the pattern o f the 1970’s, the overall rate o f
participation would increase more for whites than for the
“black and other”5 component o f the population. The
civilian labor force rate for whites would rise from 62.6 to
66.9 percent over the 1977-90 period, while the rate for
“black and others” would rise from 60.0 to 62.0 percent.
Nevertheless, because o f the much more rapid increase in
the black population, the proportion o f the labor force
accounted for by “black and other races” would still
increase some—from 11.6 to 13.1 percent.

• For men, labor force participation would continue to edge
down, although not as fast as over the 1970-77 period. The
overall participation rate for men would be 76.4 percent in
1990 compared with 77.7 percent in 1977.
• The only group o f men for whom the participation rates
would rise significantly under this scenario are teenagers—
reaching a rate o f 64.8 percent by 1990, up from 61.0
percent in 1977.

Under these assumptions, women would con­
tinue to increase their share of the labor force,
which would reach 45 percent by 1990, up from 41
percent in 1977. Another important development,
inherent to this as well as the other two scenarios,
is the large growth in the proportion of the labor

• Labor force participation rates of women would rise
substantially, with the rise continuing at the pace o f the
1970-77 period, then slowing down gradually to a more



5

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • Labor Force Projections to 1990

force in the central age groups. Reflecting, primari­
ly, the sharp decline in the youth population and
the anticipated continuation of the decline—albeit
at a reduced pace—in labor force participation
among older workers, the proportion of the work
force accounted for by persons age 25 to 54 should
expand from 61 to 70 percent over the 1977-90
period. The growing labor force role of persons age
25 to 54. who have considerable work experience
and are generally very productive, should help to
sustain the economic growth of the Nation.

In terms of age distribution, the high-growth
assumptions would imply an increase in the labor
force proportion of persons age 25 to 54 from 61
percent in 1977 to 69.0 percent in 1990—an
increase only slightly smaller than that implicit in
the intermediate-growth scenario.
Low-growth scenario

Under the low-growth scenario, the civilian
labor force is projected to grow only to 108.9
million by 1985 and to 113.5 million by 1990. As
shown in table 1, this would imply an annual rate
of growth of 1.4 percent (compounded) for the
1977-85 period and 0.8 percent for the 1985-90
period, substantially below the growth rate of 2.3
percent for the 1970-77 period. This very low rate
of labor growth could be attained if:

High-growth scenario
Under the high-growth scenario, the civilian
labor force would reach 117.0 million by 1985 and
125.6 million by 1990. Most of the growth
underlying these assumptions would be accounted
for by women, whose civilian labor force participa­
tion rate would rise to 57.1 percent by 1985 and to
60.4 percent by 1990. The basic assumptions which
underlie the high-growth projection are the follow­
ing:

• The labor force participation rates for adult men would
continue to drift downward, at least for the initial years of
the projection period. This would lower the civilian labor
force participation rate o f men to 73.3 percent by 1990,
down from 77.7 percent in 1977.
• The rise in the labor force participation rates o f women of
child-bearing age would be slowed down considerably by a
rebound from their currently low fertility rate. It was
assumed for the purpose o f these projections that, begin­
ning in 1980, the fertility rate would move toward the Series
I path in the Census projections, implying that each women
would have an average o f 2.7 children compared with the
average o f 1.8 children in recent years.6 Principally because
o f this constraint, but also because the labor force rates for
women outside the child-bearing group would be assumed
to rise at a lesser pace than under either o f the other two
scenarios, the overall civilian labor force participation rate
for women age 16 and over would rise to only 53.8 percent
by 1990, up from 48.4 percent in 1977.

• At least for the initial years o f the projection period, the
participation rates for women in the young and central age
groups would continue to rise at the very rapid pace o f the
most recent years. (However, in no case would the rates for
women cross the rates for men o f comparable age.)
• The historical downward drift in the participation rates of
white men in the central age groups would come to a halt,
with these rates remaining essentially constant or rising
slightly during the projection period.
• The participation rates for black men would not only halt
their historical decline but would turn upward, so as to
converge with the rates for white men of comparable age by
the year 2000. H ow ever, they still w ou ld differ con sid erab ly
in 1990.

• The participation rates for older workers would continue
to decline roughly at the pace o f the 1970’s, the hypothesis
being, in part, that the recent changes in legislation
concerning mandatory retirement might not have any
impact on the labor force trends for older workers.

• The participation rates o f persons age 65 and over would
not decline any further during the first 8 years o f the
projection period, reflecting the temporary impact o f the
recent legislation raising the minimum age o f mandatory
retirement to 70 in the private sector and banning the
practice altogether for Federal workers.

• The participation rates o f teenagers would continue to
advance but at a slower pace than implied in the other
growth scenarios.

Under this growth path, the proportion of the
labor force accounted for by women would grow
slightly faster than under the intermediate-growth
scenario. With high growth, it would expand from
41 percent in 1977 to 46 percent in 1990. These
projections would also entail a very significant
expansion in the proportion of the labor force
accounted for by blacks, whose participation rates
under this scenario are assumed to move toward
convergence with white rates. Should the path
toward convergence be followed, there would be
an increase in the “black and other” share of the
civilian labor force from 11.6 percent in 1977 to
13.8 percent by 1990.



There are not yet any signs that the hypothe­
sized rebound in the fertility rate, which is crucial
to these participation assumptions, is about to take
place. There are, nevertheless, some demographers
who believe that it will take place. Richard
Easterlin, for example, believes that the decline in
the youth proportion of the population during the
early 1980’s will be accompanied by exactly such a
phenomenon.7
Even under this scenario, however, the propor­
tion of the labor force accounted for by women
would expand significantly—from 41 percent in
1977 to 45 percent in 1990. There would again be a
6

substantial rise in the proportion of the labor force
accounted for by persons age 25 to 54, as this is a
development stemming essentially from population
dynamics that are the same under each of the three
scenarios. On the other hand, the racial composi­
tion of the labor force would change very little
under these assumptions, as the participation rates
for some black groups are allowed to decline
considerably, nearly offsetting the increase in the
black proportion of the population.

substantially from the reduced competition for
jobs among youths in general.
Although the number of youths in the labor
force will drop, the number of workers age 25 to 54
will expand considerably, reflecting the gradual
aging of the post-World War II baby boom. (See
table 5.) The implications of this development are
that the labor force, in general, will be more
mature, composed of persons with considerable
work experience, and, supposedly, very productive.
In terms of potential output, this development
should tend to offset, at least partially, the effects
of the numerical decline in labor force growth
during the 1980’s. But it is worth noting again that,
under all three sets of projections, there would be
an increase in the proportion of the labor force
who are women; this also has considerable
implications in terms of potential output. The
consequences of this development, as far as output
is concerned, will depend heavily on the extent to
which women—particularly those with children—
will be able to work on a full-time basis.

Socioeconom ic im plications

Inherent in the labor force growth paths traced
by these sets of projections and in the population
trends which underlie them are some important
implications for the social and economic develop­
ment of our Nation during the 1980’s. There
should be, for example, some improvement in the
employment situation of youths. In general, the
labor force should be more mature and thus
somewhat more productive; the ratio of nonwork­
ers to workers in the total population would
narrow in at least two of the scenarios, a develop­
ment that should lead to further improvements in
our overall standard of living.
The coming decline in the youth population
should lessen the competition for jobs among
youths, narrowing the relative gap between their
jobless rates and those for older workers. This gap
was much smaller before the youth population
began increasing rapidly during the mid-1960’s,
and its subsequent widening has been directly
linked by some economists to the “crowding”
effect caused by the entry of ever-larger numbers
of youths into the job market.8 Of course, the sharp
reduction in the number of youths should also
have a negative impact on college enrollments and
on the production and marketing of those goods
and services traditionally aimed at the youth
market.
It should also be noted that the decline in the
youth proportion of the population will not be
nearly as pronounced for blacks as for whites. The
black population historically has had a much
higher birth rate than the white population and,
thus, a larger component of young persons. This
will continue to be the case. Although the birth
rate also has been slackening among blacks, the
number of black youths is still projected to rise
slightly during the 1980’s. Because black youths
traditionally have had very high unemployment
rates, the increase of the black proportion of the
youth population will tend to keep the overall
youth jobless rate high. It can be hypothesized,
however, that even black youths will benefit



Table 5. Labor force distribution, by sex, age, and race,
to 1990
[P e rc e n t]

Projected

a n iM i

Sex, age, and n e t
1970

1977

Htgh
growth
1985

Total, age 16 and over
Men, age 16 and over . . .
16 to 24 .........................
16 to 1 9 ...................
20 to 2 4 ...................
25 to 54 .........................
55 and over ...................
55 to 64 ...................
65 and over .............
Women, age 16 and over
16 to 2 4 .........................
16 to 19 ...........................
20 to 24 ...........................
25 to 54 .........................
55 and over ...................
55 to 64 ...........................
65 and over .....................

1990

■‘
-»«-*in m in e a ia ie

growth
1905

1900

Low
growth
1905

1990

100.0
61.9
11.7
4.8
6.9
38.9
11.2
8.6
2.6
38.1
9.8
3.9
5.9
22.0
6.3
5.0
1.3

100.0
59.0
13.2
5.1
8.1
36.7
9.1
7.2
1.9
41.0
11.1
4.4
6.7
24.3
5.6
4.5
1.1

100.0
55.6
11.0
3.9
7.1
36.4
8.2
6.4
1.8
44.4
10.7
3.8
6.9
28.7
5.0
4.0
1.0

100.0
54.3
9.5
3.7
5.8
37.5
7.4
5.7
1.7
45.7
9.6
3.6
6.0
31.6
4.5
3.6
1.0

100.0
55.8
11.0
3.9
7.2
37.0
7.7
6.2
1.6
44.2
10.6
3.7
6.9
28.7
4.9
4.0
.9

100.0
54.6
9.3
3.5
5.8
38.4
6.8
5.3
1.5
45.5
9.4
3.5
5.9
31.6
4.5
3.6
.9

100.0
56.2
11.1
3.9
7.3
37.9
7.2
6.0
1.2
43.8
10.4
3.6
6.8
28.7
4.8
3.9
.8

100.0
55.0
9.5
3.5
5.9
39.5
6.1
5.1
1.0
45.0
9.1
3.3
5.8
31.7
4.2
3.5
.7

88.9
55.6
10.3
35.0
10.3
33.3
8.6
19.0
5.7

88.4
52.8
11.7
32.8
8.3
35.6
9.8
20.8
5.0

87.1
48.8
9.5
32.0
7.4
38.3
9.3
24.6
4.4

86.2
47.2
7.9
32.6
6.6
39.0
8.1
26.9
4.0

87.5
49.4
9.7
32.7
7.0
38.2
9.2
24.6
4.4

86.9
47.9
8.1
33.7
6.1
39.0
8.2
27.0
3.9

87.5
49.7
9.8
33.4
6.5
37.8
9.1
24.4
4.2

86.9
48.4
8.3
34.7
5.4
38.6
7.9
26.9
3.7

11.1
6.3
1.4
3.9
1.0
4.9
1.2
3.0
.6

11.6
6.2
1.5
3.9
.8
5.4
1.3
3.5
.6

12.9
6.7
1.6
4.4
.8
6.1
1.4
4.1
.6

13.8
7.2
1.5
4.8
.8
6.7
1.5
4.6
.6

12.5
6.4
1.4
4.3
.7
6.0
1.3
4.2
.6

13.1
6.6
1.2
4.7
.7
6.4
1.2
4.6
.6

U A .U .

W llfIS
Total, age 16 and over
Men, age 16 and over . . .
16 t o 24 .........................
25 to 54 .........................
55 and over ...................
Women, age 16 and over
16 to 2 4 .........................
25 to 54 .........................
55 and over ...................

cHocx ana omaf
Total, age 16 and over
Men, age 16 and over . . .
16 to 24 .........................
25 to 54 .........................
55 and over ...................
Women, age 16 and over
16 to 2 4 .........................
25 to 54 .........................
55 and over ...................

7

12.5
6.4
1.3
4.4
.7
6.1
1.3
4.2
.5

13.1
6.7
1.2
4.8
.7
6.4
1.2
4.7
.5

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • Labor Force Projections to 1990

Another important implication of these projec­
tions is that persons age 55 and over, and
particularly those over 65, will continue to show an
increased preference for leisure over work. The
three sets of projections differ in this respect only
in terms of how much lower the participation rates
of older persons may go. Under the high-growth
assumptions, these rates would decline very little;
in the low-growth scenario they would continue to
drift downward as they have over the past decade.
The rationale for these assumptions is that,
although the recent changes in mandatory retire­
ment legislation might be expected to slow the
decline in participation among the 65-69 age
group, a sudden upturn in any of the rates for older
workers is unlikely. With the general tendency
toward earlier retirement expected to continue, the
proportion of older persons who are outside the
labor force is projected to be larger in 1990 than it
is now.
Despite this projected development, the “eco­
nomic dependency ratio,” that is, the ratio of
nonworkers to workers in the entire population,
including children, should narrow considerably
during the 1980’s. This ratio stood at 117.8 in 1977,
meaning that there were 117.8 nonworkers for
every 100 workers in the population. Assuming
that the birth rate will not increase much from
current levels, the dependency ratio would decline
considerably, both under the high-growth and the
intermediate-growth scenarios. Only under the
low-growth scenario, which is predicated on a
sharp rise in the birth rate and on a very small
increase in the overall labor force participation
rate, would the “economic dependency ratio”
remain at current levels (1977 = 117.8), as shown in
the following tabulation:

entering the central age groups, begin to retire. But
that is a development far beyond the scope of these
projections.
As already noted, the implications for blacks
vary considerably with each of the three scenarios.
Under the high-growth scenario, the labor force
participation rates for blacks would move toward
convergence with the rates for whites. For black
men, this would imply a sharp reversal of long-run
trends and a return to the situation in the mid1950’s, when their participation rates differed little
from those of white men. Since then, their
participation rates have dropped much more
rapidly than those of white men, creating a
substantial gap. In this context, the high-growth
scenario, which would gradually lead toward a
complete elimination of this gap, might be regard­
ed as illustrative of the difficult path that has to be
traveled to have black men participating fully in
the economic life of our Nation.
The labor force trends of black and white
women have been much different. Although
participation has been increasing at a faster pace
for white than for black women, the rates for black
women in the central age groups are still higher
than those for white women. The question is: with
participation among white women fast approach­
ing the level for black women, will the rates for the
two groups gradually converge and then move
together, or will they cross and diverge? Here, as in
the case of men, the high-growth scenario would
imply a gradual movement toward parity in the
rates for the two racial groups. In the two other
scenarios, the rates for white women would cross
and eventually exceed those of black women.
Summary and conclusions

Level o f labor force growth

Economic
dependency ratio
1985

High growth ...........................
Intermediate growth ............
Low growth ...........................

1990

92.2
99.0
115.2

Labor force growth should slow down during
the 1980’s, largely because the working age
population will be expanding much more slowly
than during the 1970’s. The youth labor force
should actually decline considerably, reflecting the
protracted decline in the birth rate during the
1960’s and early 1970’s. Concomitant with this
development should be a significant increase in the
proportion of the work force age 25 to 54.
The precise extent to which these developments
will affect the size and configuration of the labor
force depends on the assumptions made about the
future participation rates of the various population
groups. For each population group, we projected
the participation rates according to three different
paths. These alternative rates were then applied to
the population estimates, with the results being

85.0
94.5
120.3

The implications of the high-growth and intermediate-growth scenarios with regard to the
dependency ratio is that each worker would have
fewer nonworkers to feed, clothe and house—this
should help improve our overall standard of living.
Even with low rates of labor force growth and a
sharp rebound of the birth rate, there still would
not be a significant widening of this important
ratio during the 1980’s. The ratio is, of course,
expected to widen considerably after the year 2000,
when the post-World War II babies, who are now



8

to come true or if, alternatively, overprojections for
a group or set of groups were to be offset precisely
by underprojections for m other group or set of
groups. The probability tha.t the actual h b o r force
trends will follow either of the three scenarios
exuctly may not be very high. Nevertheless, the
three sets of projections should shed some useful
light for phnners and policymakers on the possible
paths of future h b o r force growth.
□

aggregatcd into a high-growth scenario, an intermediate-growth scenario, and a low-growth scenario. The resulting labor force levels for 1990 were,
respectively, 125.6 million, 119.4 million, and 113.5
million. There is, of course, nothing sacred about
these numbers. Each represents nothing more than
the h b o r force levels tha.t would be reached if the
alternative assumptions made about the labor
force trends for the many population groups were

FOOTNOTES-

4 “Estimates o f Coverage o f Population by Sex, Race, and Age,”
Bureau o f the Census, Report PHC (E-4).

1 See Paul M. Ryscavage, “An Evaluation o f BLS Labor Force
Projections,” presented at the meetings o f the American Statistical
Association in San Diego, California, Aug. 16, 1978.

5 The black and other category includes Negroes, American
Indians, Eskimos, Asians, and others. At the time o f the 1970 Census
o f Population, 89 percent o f this population group was black.

2 The projections made by BLS in 1973 and 1976 did show two
alternative paths o f labor force growth, but these did not differ much
from the “main” projections, as the only group for whom alternative
projections were made were women o f child-bearing age. See Howard
N Fullerton, Jr., and Paul O. Flaim, “New labor force projections to
1990,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1976, pp. 3-13, and Denis F.
Johnston, “The U.S. labor force: projections to 1990,” Monthly Labor
Review, July 1973, pp. 3-13.

6 “Projections o f the Population...”
7 See Richard A. Easterlin, Michael L. Wachter, and Susan M.
Wachter, “Demographic Influences on Economic Stability: The
United States Experience,” Population and Development Review,
March 1978.
8 Michael L. Wachter, “The Demographic Impact on Unemploy­
ment: Past Experience and Outlook for the Future,” in Demographic
Trends and Full Employment, Special Report No. 12 o f the National
Commission for Manpower Policy, December 1976.

3 “Projections o f the Population o f the United States: 1977 to
2050,” Bureau o f the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25,
No. 704, July 1977.

APPENDIX: General assumptions and methodology

For each group, the average annual change in
labor force participation was obtained by regress­
ing participation against time. Two different rates
of change in participation were obtained for each
group by fitting a regression line on the 20 annual
observations for the 1958-77 period and by fitting
a separate line on the observations for the 1970-77
period. For youths and women, the data for the
1970-77 period yielded generally higher rates of
increase in participation than did the observations
for the entire 1958— period. For adult men, the
77
shorter period yielded generally greater rates of
decline in participation than did the longer period.
For most groups, the coefficients from the two
regressions were then used to extrapolate two
different participation trends into the future, with
the 1977 participation rate for the group being
used in all cases as the takeoff point. (In the
projections published in 1976, the takeoff point
was the average for the last three annual observa­
tions.) In some cases, however, as will be noted
below, the coefficients were either increased or
decreased judgmentally. Also, in nearly all cases,
the amount of change in the extrapolated line (/*)

In addition to the specific assumptions which
were made for each of the scenarios, some general
assumptions which apply to all the projections
discussed above should also be pointed out.
It was assumed, for example, that there will not
be any substantial changes in the current definition
of the “civilian labor force.”1 It was also assumed
that there will not be any major wars or major
social disorders which would radically alter either
the demand for labor or the propensity to work.
For the purposes of these projections, it was
assumed that general demand would not depart
significantly from the basic trends of the past two
decades.
Projecting the participation rates. Projections of
labor force parti, ipation were made separately by
sex and race for youths age 16 and 17, 18, and 19,
and for adults grouped into 5-year age groups
through age 74. In addition, for women age 20 to
44 labor force participation trends were projected
separately for those expected to have young
children and for those not expected to have any
young children.



9

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • Labor Force Projections to 1990

was reduced exponentially according to the follow­
ing equation:
r, = n - 1 - (/ - ri_i)/276
where i is the number of years since 1977, and 276
is the sum of the digits for the years covering the
1977-2000 period.
The effect of this formula is to gradually reduce
the rate of change to zero by the year 2000, but the
tapering effect is almost insignificant during the
first few years of the projection period.
This method yielded two of the three extrapola­
tion lines needed to make three alternative projec­
tions for each group. A third line was needed and,
depending on the course of two extrapolated lines,
was placed either in the middle by computing a
weighted average of the two lines or outside (and
generally above) the two regression-derived lines.
An outside placement was achieved by simply
increasing or decreasing one of the coefficients or,
as in the case of black men, by tracing a path that
would bring their rate to eventual convergence
with the rate for white men.
For white youths age 16 to 24, for example, the
extrapolation of the 1970-77 trend diverged very
widely from the extrapolation based on the 1958—
77 trend. In this case, these two lines were used,
respectively, for the high- and low-growth scenario
and the line for the intermediate-growth scenario
was obtained through a weighted combination of
the other two lines:
Interm ediate rate =

high rate + ( 1 - # ) • low rate

where b = 0.90, and / is the number of years since
1977.
For most other groups, except for women age 20
to 44, the two regression derived lines did not
diverge as much and generally were used to project
the low and the intermediate-growth paths in
participation trends, with their rate of change,
again, being exponentially reduced and, in some
cases, with the coefficients being changed judgmentally so as to produce what seemed to be more
plausible future path. In these cases, the third
projection line, used generally for the high-growth
scenario, was obtained in various ways, as summa­
rized below:
For white men age 25 to 29, the highest plausible
path of their participation was assumed to be a line
that increased at the same rate that it had declined
over the 1958-77 period; for those age 30 to 45, the
fastest increase was assumed to be half the rate of
the long-term decline; and for those age 45 to 64,
the highest plausible path assumed that the long­
term decline would simply stop, with the rates



10

remaining constant over the projection period. For
men age 65 and older, participation under the
high-growth assumptions was held constant until
1985, based on an assumed temporary effect o f the
recent changes in retirement laws. After 1985, the
rate was allowed to decline in a line parallel to the
intermediate-growth path. For black men age 16 to
64, the high-growth lines represent the paths which
their participation rates would have to trace if they
are to reach parity with the projected rates for
white men of comparable age by the year 2000.
These paths were obtained through the following
equations:
r = [ln(blk lfpri977) - ln(w ht lfpr2ooo)]/23

and then using this equation to obtain the labor
force rate in year i by:
blk lfp n

= blk lfpri977- e (rt>

For women age 20 to 44, whose participation
rates have been rising at an increasing pace during
the 1970’s, the projections for the three scenarios
were made as follows. The 1970-77 trend lines for
each 5-year age group were extrapolated as the
participation projections for the intermediategrowth scenario. The high-growth lines for these
groups were obtained by simply increasing the
coefficient derived from the short-term regression,
assuming that, at least for the immediate future,
participation for young and middle-age women
could continue to rise at a very fast pace. However,
an important constraint was applied to these
extrapolations. In no case were the participation
rates for women allowed to exceed the projected
rates for men of comparable age. Where rates for
women would have exceeded the rates for men
before 1990 despite the application of the tapering
formula described above, the rate of increase was
reduced to zero (again, exponentially) by 1990.
To the extent that there may be a negative
relationship between the labor force rates of these
women and their fertility rates, the assumption
implicit in both the high and intermediate-growth
paths was that fertility would remain at the
relatively low levels of recent years.
For the low-growth projections, on the other
hand, it was assumed explicity that the fertility rate
could rise significantly in the coming years,
returning to the levels of the early 1960’s and, thus,
slowing the rise in labor force participation among
women. Specifically, it was assumed that fertility
would follow the path in the Series I population
projections made by the Bureau of the Census. To
trace the path of labor force participation under
these assumptions, the population of women age
20 to 44 was divided into two groups: those

expected to have children under age 5; and those
not expected to have any young children. The
separate participation paths for these women were
then projected on the basis of the trend in their
participation rates as measured each March over
the 1970-77 period. In this case, two constraints
were applied: the rates for women in either of the
two groups were not allowed to exceed the rates for
men of comparable age; and the rates for women
with children were not allowed to exceed those for
women without children.
As a final step, which can be rationalized by the
fact that, as of mid-1978, there were no solid signs
that the birth rate was about to rise significantly,
the low-growth participation projections for these
women were not allowed to diverge from the
projected intermediate-growth rates for women of
the same age until after 1980. Implicit in this last
constraint is the assumption that the birth rate is
not likely to rise much above current (1978) levels
until after 1980.
This describes the general methodology used in
projecting the participation rates. Those who are
interested in more specific detail should contact
the authors of this report.

2.1 million personnel, one-tenth of whom would be
women. For our purposes, it was assumed that
these goals would be reached (from currently lower
levels) by 1983, and that both the size and sex
distribution of the Armed Forces would remain
constant for the balance of the projection period.
Accuracy o f population estimates. The Bureau of the
Census’ population projections begin with the 1970
census. Additional steps include aging the popula­
tion and making the proper allowances both for
the known and the projected course of births,
deaths, and net migration. In the final analysis, the
projected size of the population may differ from
the actual “true” size both because of possible
enumeration problems in the decennial census as
well as because the actual course of births,
mortality, and net migration may differ from the
projected trends.
With regard to the population estimates used in
projecting the labor force until 1990, it is worth
noting again that they cannot be directly affected
by any changes in the birth rate during the
projection period. Although changes in mortality
rates would impact on these population estimates,
they are likely to have little effect on the labor
force, since they would tend to fall in the older
population groups where participation in the labor
force is very low.
Of more importance in terms of the labor force
projections are possible changes in the population
estimates which might have to be made to reflect
the findings of the 1980 Census or of the quinquen­
nial census scheduled for 1985. It is also possible
that the population projections might eventually be
revised to reflect a better knowledge of the net
migration trends, particularly with regard to the
inflows of the so-called “undocumented aliens.”
Nevertheless, relative to the size of the total
population of working age, these revisions are not
likely to loom very large.
□

Application o f participation projections. The process
followed in applying the participation projections
to the projected population estimates—thus gener­
ating the projected labor force levels—was as
follows. For all groups, the projected rates of
change in participation for each year of the
projection period were applied to the previous
year’s ratio of the total labor force, including the
Armed Forces, to the total population as projected
by the Bureau of the Census. This yielded the
levels of total labor force, including Armed Forces.
To translate these into a civilian labor force
concept and to compute the civilian labor force
participation rates, two other steps were necessary:
removal of the institutional population from the
total population; and removal of the Armed
Forces both from the population and labor force
projections. Removal of the institutional popula­
tion was accomplished by applying to the total
population a series of constant ratios equal to
those published by the Bureau of the Census with
their most recent population estimates.2 The
Armed Forces were subtracted both from the
population and total labor force projections based
on data supplied by the Defense Department, the
long-term goals of which are for a total of about



-------------- FOOTNOTES-------------1 The concepts and definitions used to measure employment and
unemployment and, thus, the civilian labor force are currently being
studied by the National Commission on Employment and Unemploy­
ment Statistics, which is scheduled to submit its recommendations to
Congress in late 1979.
2 Bureau o f the Census, Current Population Reports, P-25, No. 643,
table A-3.

11

The U.S. economy to 1990:
two projections for growth
A moderately expanding economy,
with a declining government role,
is envisioned in B L S estimates
fo r 1977 to 1990, which replace
projections fo r 1975 to 1985
N

orman

C. Saunders

How fast can the U.S. economy grow by 1990?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared two
alternative projections spanning 1977 to 1990,
replacing projections for 1975 to 1985.1 The base
projection examines the potential for growth with a
moderately expanding labor force, a relatively slow
decline in inflation and unemployment, and
moderate Government expenditures. The high
employment projection assumes a much larger
labor force and a heavy emphasis on job creation,
which would lower the unemployment rate sig­
nificantly.
By 1990, real gross national product (GNP) is
expected to reach $2.1 trillion and civilian employ­
ment to total 114 million.
In the base projection, the annual rate of
increase in gross national product and several key
components will begin to slow in the 1980’s:

M ajor assumptions

For both projections, inflation is expected to
average 6.7 percent during 1977-80 but decelerate
to 5.2 percent during 1980-90, a rate roughly
comparable to the 1968-73 level of inflation. The
following are the fiscal, demographic, and other
major assumptions underlying the BLS economic
growth model for the base projection.2
Fiscal policy. Personal taxes will be affected by a
$ 16.0-billion personal income tax cut assumed for
1979, consistent with the Revenue Act of 1978.
Further tax cuts are specified during the 1980’s to
offset the impact of inflation on the effective
Federal personal tax rate. The effective rate is
projected to range between 10.5 percent and 11.0
percent of personal income between 1980 and
1990.
The Federal tax rate on corporate profits is
assumed to drop from 48.0 percent in 1978 to 46.0
percent in 1979 and to 45.0 percent in 1980 and
thereafter. A version of the crude oil equalization
tax is assumed to take effect in 1979, impacting
indirect business taxes. The revenue from this tax
is expected to reach a maximum of $17.0 billion in
1984 and then quickly drop to an insignificant
amount by 1986 as the so-called ‘old oil’ is
replaced with newer discoveries. Approximately
90.0 percent of this tax will be returned to the
public via personal tax rebates. The remainder

1977-80 1980-85 1985-90
Gross national product . . .
Personal income .................. . . . .
Employed .............................
Unemployed ......................... . . . .

4.3
11.0
2.8
-5.7

3.6
9.8
1.9
-1.5

3.2
8.3
1.2
.2

The growth slowdown is due almost entirely to
decelerating expansion of the labor force.
Norman C. Saunders is an economist in the Office o f Economic
Growth, Bureau o f Labor Statistics.




12

represents the administrative costs of the program.
Contributions for social security programs are
based primarily on the taxable wage base and the
combined employer/employee tax rate. It is
assumed that the increase mandated by the Social
Security Act of 1977 will be in effect through 1980.
Namely, the wage base will be $23,900 and the
combined employer/employee tax rate will be 12.3
percent in 1980. After 1980, it has been assumed
that future amendments to the 1977 act will be in
effect. The wage base is expected to increase to
$45,000 by 1990, an average annual rate of 6.6
percent between 1980 and 1990. The tax rate will
increase to 13.6 percent by 1990, compared with
the 15.6 percent currently mandated for that year.
In regard to Federal expenditures, it is assumed
that purchases of goods and services less compen­
sation will grow at about 7.5 percent annually
between 1980 and 1985 and at 6.0 percent during
the 1985-90 period. This amounts to about 1.8
percent real growth per year between 1980 and
1990. Federal civilian employment is expected to
increase by just under 150,000 between 1980 and
1990 at an average annual increase of 0.7 percent.
Federal transfer payments comprise: (1) unem­
ployment insurance benefits; (2) social security; (3)
Federal civilian employee retirement; (4) railroad
retirement; (5) veterans’ benefits; (6) hospital and
supplementary medical insurance; (7) supplemen­
tal security income; and (8) all other Federal
transfer payments. Projections for each category
are based on expected inflation, changes in client
populations, and some discretionary change which
represents real changes in offered benefits. All
eight categories are projected in terms of current
services through 1983, that is, no real growth in
programs is envisioned during the 1977— period.
83
After 1983, discretionary rates of growth are set at
1:0 percent to 3.0 percent each year for the various
programs through 1990. It should be noted that the
assumed discretionary rates represent far lower
rates of real growth in transfers than was experi­
enced in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. Grantsin-aid to States and localities are essentially
unchanged in real terms throughout the projection
period, as are subsidies to government enterprises.
In addition to the above Federal budget assump­
tions, two general objectives were to achieve a
relative balance between receipts and expenditures
by the early 1980’s and to bring expenditures
below the current 22.0 percent share of GNP. The
following are the results of these assumptions:
1977
F ederal receipts ..................
A s percent o f G N P ___




374.4
19.8

1980
522.6
20.1

1985
812.4
19.9

Federal expenditures ___
As percent o f G N P ___
Federal deficit ....................
As percent o f G NP ___

422.6
22.4
-48.1
2.5

554.4
21.4
-31.7
1.2

832.9
20.4
-20.5
.5

1,191.2
19.8
-22.5
.4

It should be noted that the figures above represent
the National Income measure of receipts, expendi­
tures, and the deficit.
Demographic changes. The primary determinants of
the demographic data are the level and age
distribution of the population. Three projected
population series have been developed by the
Bureau of the Census, differing primarily in the
assumed fertility rate.3 The Series II projections
have been chosen for inclusion in the base
forecasts. Projections of the number of households
and the number of students have also been
prepared by the Bureau of the Census.4 It has been
assumed that recent urban population trends will
continue throughout the projection period. Finally,
the ‘moderate growth’ labor force projections
developed by BLS were chosen for the base
projections.5
Unemployment and productivity. The unemploy­
ment rate is viewed as a policy objective in the
projections. Values are assigned to represent, first,
a realistic recovery path from the 1975 recession
and, second, after the recovery is complete, a
stable long-run unemployment rate close to full
employment. The assumea unemployment rates by
year:
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

....
....
....
....
....
....

..
..
..
..
..
..

6.3
5.5
5.3
5.2
5.0
4.9

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

.....
........
........
........
........
........

4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5

The largest declines occur in the late 1970’s and
early 1980’s. As the economy recovers from the
recession and approaches full employment, the
declines in the unemployment rate begin to taper
off and a nearly constant rate is reached by 1985.
The relatively small declines after 1985 reflect the
changing age structure of the labor force, rather
than any real decline in the rate itself. As long as
the assumed rate remains relatively constant after
1985, the real rate of projected GNP growth will be
unaffected during the 1985-90 period.
For the private nonfarm sector, the long term
average rate of growth of productivity was 2.6
percent between 1955 and 1968. Between 1968 and
1973, the rate declined sharply to 1.9 percent
annually and even further to 1.1 percent each year
between 1973 and 1977. This shortfall in produc­
tivity growth has been attributed to many factors,
including new workers’ inexperience and lack of
education and increasing emphasis on non-pro­
duction oriented types of investment, such as

1990
1,168.8
19.4

13

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • The U.S. Economy to 1990

pollution control equipment.6 There has been a
strong cyclical recovery of nonfarm productivity of
almost 2.5 percent annually in the 1975-77 period.
However, a considerable slowdown in productivity
growth is assumed for the remainder of this
decade—1.7 percent average growth from 1977 to
1980.
Between 1980 and 1985, it has been assumed
that there will be a relatively slow recovery in
productivity on the order of 2.1 percent annual
growth and between 1985 and 1990, 2.4 percent.
The return to higher rates of growth is attributable
to several factors, all of which are basically
negations of those factors which caused the earlier
slowdown in growth. Members of the post-World
War II baby boom will become experienced
workers during the 1980’s, and hence, more
productive. The rapid growth in the levels of
investment in environment and energy conserva­
tion equipment should slow in the early to mid1980’s, thus allowing a greater proportion of the
investment dollar to be spent on more productive
plant and equipment.
It should be emphasized that even with this
return to higher productivity, the economy will not
return to the level of production it would have
attained had productivity growth remained at the
1955-68 rate. Rather, it is estimated that the
slowdown in productivity growth during the 1968—
77 period resulted in a loss of approximately $115
billion in real production.
Prices and energy. The final major assumption
deals with the inflation rate. The implicit price
deflator for private GNP is expected to be well
below the 7.6 percent rate of inflation experienced
during the 1973-77 period. It is assumed to
increase at an average annual rate of 6.5 percent
between 1977 and 1980, slowing to 5.5 percent
during 1980-85 and 4.4 percent during 1985-90.
This compares to 2.1 percent between 1955 and
1968 and 4.7 percent between 1968 and 1973.
While prices do not directly affect the determi­
nation of real GNP, they do enter into the
projections in several important ways. First, wage
rates and interest rates are influenced to a great
extent by price changes. These affect consumption
expenditures and residential investment. Second,
prices impact on the Federal budget. They enter
implicitly into the determ ination of various
expenditure levels and, on the revenue side, they
affect personal income tax because of the progres­
sive tax structure. The movement of prices in the
future is quite uncertain. The price assumptions
used in these projections are a judgment as to the



relative strengths of the various factors which
affect price determination.
These are the assumptions which have the
greatest impact on the projection results. Other
assumptions include capital discard rates, motor
fuel usage, and short and medium term Govern­
ment bond rates. In general, however, their impact
is limited to relatively small areas.
One area deserving of further comment, how­
ever, is energy and the effect of pending energyrelated legislation. It is assumed that the higher
prices for energy will not act as a constraint on
aggregate growth, nor will any energy program,
with the exception of the crude oil equalization tax,
have a discernible impact on the aggregate econo­
my. At the industry level, however, the mix of fuels
used to meet energy needs is projected to change
and thus affect employment requirements. For a
discussion of energy assumptions at the industry
level, see the article by Arthur Andreassen in this
issue.
Aggregate demand

Gross national product consists of personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential
and residential fixed investment, business invento­
ry accumulations, net foreign trade, and govern­
ment purchases of goods and services. Total GNP
and its various components are presented in table
1 in constant 1972 prices for selected years from
1955 to 1990. Under the base assumptions, total
GNP is projected to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent
annually between 1977 and 1980, slightly lower
than the recovery growth rate of 5.3 percent
annually from 1975 to 1977. The strongest growth
is expected in purchases of producers’ durable
equipment. This component of GNP is expected to
increase by almost $21.0 billion in real terms
during the remainder of this decade, an average
rate of 7.0 percent. The other demand components
of GNP are also expected to grow slightly above
trend rates during this period.
After 1980, the real rate of annual growth of
output is expected to slow to a rate more
representative of the long term historical growth
pattern—3.6 percent from 1980 to 1985. The
components of real GNP are also expected to
return to their long-term growth rates. After 1985,
the projected slowdown in population and labor
force growth results in real GNP growth subsiding
to 3.2 percent annually between 1985 and 1990.
Consumption. Personal consumption expenditures
have traditionally accounted for the largest share
of final production. In 1955, personal consumption

14

made up about 60.0 percent of real GNP and has
steadily increased its share to 64.4 percent in 1977.
This trend is expected to continue, with consump­
tion making up almost 68.0 percent of final output
by 1990. The expansion of personal consumption
at a more rapid rate than total GNP is due
primarily to two factors. First, the effective Federal
and State tax rates on personal income are
projected to decline from 14.1 percent in 1980 to
13.7 percent in 1990, reflecting the tax cuts. The
declining tax rate yields a growth in real disposable
personal income of 4.1 percent per year during the
1980-85 period and 3.7 percent annually between
1985 and 1990—in each case 0.5 percent higher
than the total GNP rate of growth. In addition the
savings rate is projected to decline from 7.7 percent
in 1975 to 5.7 percent in 1980 and to 5.6 percent by
1990. The slow decline in the savings rate is
consistent with a long period of steady growth and
high employment levels and also reflects that 1975
represented a historically high savings rate,
reflecting record interest rates and the effect of the
recession on durable goods purchases.
Here is the percent distribution of personal
consumption among durable goods, nondurable
goods, and services for several selected years:
1955
E xpenditures ....................
D u rab les ......................
N o n d u rab les ..............
Services .........................

1977

1980

1985

1990

100.0
13.2
46.9
39.9

100.0
16.1
38.5
45.4

100.0
16.6
38.1
45.3

100.0
17.5
36.8
45.7

billion below the 1973 level. This represented a
12.0 percent share of GNP, down from almost 17.0
percent in 1973. By 1977, however, investment had
recovered to a great extent and accounted for 14.7
percent of GNP. Because of the anticipatory role
played by investment, it is a key to determining the
longrun growth potential of the economy. In
essence, investment represents current commit­
ments to future growth and is an important source
of productivity growth.
All four categories of investment are projected
to increase at a very rapid rate—much higher than
the historical trend—during the 1975-80 period.
The most dram atic recovery from the 1975
recession is expected to occur in the area of
housing. Residential construction dropped by
more than $20 billion between 1973 and 1975. The
drop was due to the interplay of several factors,
chiefly credit availability and the overall downturn
in the economy. Mortgage rates have stabilized
somewhat, incomes are catching up with price
increases, and the residential market is expected to
recover from the 1975 debacle. Most of the
recovery has already taken place, in 1976 and
1977, and, as a result, residential investment is
projected to grow at a rate of 1.1 percent annually
between 1977 and 1980.
Several factors will impact on residential invest­
ment during the 1980’s. Over the entire decade the
rate of household formation is projected to
decelerate rapidly, due primarily to projected
slowdowns in population growth and to changes in
the age structure of the population. The number of
new households formed in 1960 was just under 1.5
million, approximately 1.6 million in 1970 and 2.1
million in 1977. Census projections, however, show
new households of 1.6 million in 1980, 1.5 million
in 1985, and 1.4 million in 1990. The other major
factors affecting residential investment are the
average real value of new housing units and the
mix of new housing purchases among single­
family, multifamily, and mobile homes. Between
1980 and 1985, the rate of growth of residential
investment is projected to be 6.0 percent per year.
The slowdown in household formation will reduce
the number of housing starts. However, the impact
is more than offset by an expected increase in the
average real value of new dwelling units as homes
are expected to be made more energy-efficient.
After 1985, it is expected that the average value of
a new unit will have stabilized as the design
features for energy efficiency become incorporated
in all new structures. Also, the shift of people away
from single-family homes to multifamily dwellings
and mobile homes is expected to lower the average

100.0
18.4
35.4
46.2

The trend since the mid-1950’s toward a slower
rate of growth in nondurables as compared to
durables and services expenditures is expected to
continue through 1990. This trend reflects the
expected response of nondurable purchases to
increases in disposable income.
Investment. Gross private domestic investment
consists of ( 1) investment in residential structures;
(2) purchases of nonresidential structures; (3)
purchases of producers’ durable equipment; and
(4) changes in inventories held by businesses.
Historically, gross domestic investment has ac­
counted for 15.0 to 16.0 percent of GNP. At the
same time, it is one of the most volatile elements of
final output. This is because investment, more than
any other component of GNP, represents the
anticipations held by business for future profits
and potential growth and, as such, tends to
fluctuate rather sharply as those expectations
change.
In 1975, for example, domestic investment fell to
a level of $143 billion in real terms, more than $60



15

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • The U.S. Economy to 1990
Table 1. Gross national product by major component, 1955, 1968, 1973, 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990
[1 9 7 2

d o lla r s

if i b illio n s ]

Projected
Actual

Component
1955
Gross national p ro d u c t.............................................
Personal consumption e xpe nd itu re s...........................................
Gross private dom estic investm ent ...............................................
Nonresidential structures ...........................
Producers’ durable equipment ...........................
Residential investm ent .....................
Change in business inventories .................
Net exports .......................................................................................
Exports .................................................................
Im ports .......................
Government purchases
Federal .......................................................
State and local .............................................

1968

1973

654.7
395.1
104.0
25.3
36.3
34.7
7.7

1,051.7
633.4
159.5
42.0
67.0
41.9
8.7

1,234.7
767.6
207.1
45.5
86.7
58.4
16.5
7.5
87.4
79.9
252.5
96.6
155.9

4.7

-.4

27.9
23.2
150.9
86.9
64.0

58.5
58.9
259.2
128.3
130.9

ntgn oiupK/yrnofii

Bate
1977
1,332.8
857.7
196.4
40.0
91.0
56.5’
8.9
9.5
98.2
88.7
269.2
101.6
167.6

1990

1905

1990

1900

1985

1990

1,511.2
966.5
233.0
45.7
111.4
58.3
17.6
15.9
117.0
101.1
295.8
105.2
190.5

1,803.3
1,184.4
286.0
52.4
132.8
78.0
22.9
20.6
139.3
118.7
312.3
111.8
200.5

2,112.8
1,428.7
331.0
65.0
161.0
82.4
22.7
26.6
173.1
146.5
326.5
117.8
208.7

1,526.4
969.8
232.3
45.0
109.6
58.8
18.9
14.5
115.6
101.1
309.9
109.8
200.1

1,853.1
1,203.7
290.3
52.8
133.1
79.5
24.9
20.2
145.1
124.9
338.9
117.8
221.1

2,196.2
1,462.7
342.8
67.3
165.5
84.6
25.3
27.9
188.6
160.7
362.8
122.4
240.4

100.0
67.6
15.7
3.1
7.6
3.9
1.1
1.3
8.2
6.9
15.5
5.6
9.9

100.0
63.5
15.2
2.9
7.2
3.9
1.2
.9
7.6
6.6
20.3
7.2
13.1

100.0
65.0
15.7
2.9
7.2
4.3
1.3
1.1
7.8
6.7
18.3
6.4
11.9

100.0
66.6
15.6
3.1
7.5
3.9
1.2
1.3
8.6
7.3
16.5
5.6
10.9

1977-80

1980-85

1985-00

4.0
4.4
4.6
3.3
4.0
6.2
5.7
6.9
4.7
4.3
1.8
1.4
2.0

3.5
4.0
3.4
5.0
4.5
1.3
.3
6.7
5.4
5.2
1.4
.8
1.7

* --------- * J l.I .H in t if tn
refccni Qisimxraon
Gross national p ro d u ct.....................................................
Personal consumption e xpe nd itu re s........................................... .
Gross private domestic investm ent .....................
Nonresidential structures ....................................................... .
Producers' durable equipment ...................................................
Residential investm ent .................................
Change in business inventories . .
Net exports .......................................................
Exports .............................
Im ports .............................
Government purchases...........................
Federal .................................................................
State and local ...........................................................................

100.0
60.3
15.9
3.9
5.5
5.3
1.2
.7
4.3
3.5
23.0
13.3
9.8

100.0
60.2
15.2
4.0
6.4
4.0
.8
-.0
5.6
5.6
24.6
12.2
12.4

100.0
62.2
16.8
3.7
7.0

100.0
64.4
14.7
3.0
6.8
4.2
.7
.7
7.4
6.7
20.2
7.6
12.6

100.0
64.0
15.4
3.0
7.4
3.9
1.2
1.1
7.7
6.7
19.6
7.0
12.6

1955-68

1968-73

1973-77

1977-80

3.7
3.7
3.3
4.0
4.8
1.5
.9

3.3
3.9
5.4
1.6
5.3
6.8
13.7

1.9
2.8
-1.3
-3.2
1.2
-.8
-14.3
6.1
3.0
2.6
1.6
1.3
1.8

4.7
1.3
.6
7.1
6.5
20.4
7.8
12.6

100.0
65.7
15.9
2.9
7.4
4.3
1.3
1.1
7.7
6.6
17.3
6.2
11.1

Average annual rale of change

Gross national p ro d u ct...........................................................................
Personal consumption expenditures . . .
Gross private dom estic investm ent .................................................
Nonresidential structures .........................
Producers' durable equipment . .
Residential investm ent .................
Change in business inventories . .
Net exports ...................................................................
Exports .............................................................................................
Im ports .................................................................
Government purchases......................................................................
Federal ...........................................................
State and local ...............................................................................

(')

(')

5.9
7.4
4.2
3.0
5.7

8.4
6.3
-.5
-5.5
3.6

'Not computable.

4.3
4.1
5.9
4.5
7.0
1.1
25.6
18.7
6.0
4.5
3.2
1.2
4.4

1980-85

1985-00

3.6
4.1
4.2
2.8
3.5
6.0
5.4
5.3
3.5
3.3
1.1
1.2
1.0

3.2
3.8
3.0

4.4
3.9
1.1
-.2
5.2
4.4
4.3
.9
1.1
.8

4.6
4.2
5.8
4.0
6.4
1.3
28.4
15.0
5.6
4.5
4.8
2.6
6.1

SOURCE: Actual data, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce: projected
data, O ffice o f Economic Growth, BLS.

real value of additions to the housing stock.
Finally, the slowdown in household formation will
be very noticeable between 1985 and 1990. The net
effect of all the factors is to lower residential
investment growth to 1.1 percent annually between
1985 and 1990.
The two categories of nonresidential investment
—plant and equipment—are expected to follow
the same growth trend as that exhibited by
residential investment through 1985. By 1980, they
are both expected to experience strong recoveries
from the 1975 recession: 4.3 percent real annual
growth for plant construction and almost 8.0
percent for equipment purchases. However, the
recovery from 1975 to 1977 has not been as strong
as in the residential sector. Therefore, growth is
still projected to be quite high—6.2 percent
annually from 1977 to 1980.
Again, as with residential structures, the growth



of both nonresidential categories of fixed invest­
ment is expected to moderate to some extent
between 1980 and 1985. In the case of structures,
the slowdown is traditionally quite steep after a
sustained period of high growth. Thus the slow­
down to 2.8 percent annual growth during 1980 to
1985 is reasonable after the earlier recovery period.
From 1985 to 1990, however, plant investment is
expected to return to the historical trend rate of 4.4
percent growth each year. Equipment purchases
are expected to continue growing at approximately
3.8 percent annually during the 1980’s. This is
somewhat slower than the long-term historical rate
of growth, but still more than adequate to maintain
equipment at well over 7.0 percent of GNP
throughout the projection period.
The impact of the nonresidential fixed invest­
ment projections on the stock of capital7 is shown
in the following growth rates:
16

P rivate non residen tial
c a p ita l sto c k

1955-68
1968-73
1973-77
1977-80
1980-85
1985-90

3.5
4.1
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.7

1990—is somewhat lower than the overall GNP
rate of growth.
State and local purchases of goods and services
are also expected to decline in terms of their real
longrun share of G N P—11.1 percent in 1985 and
about 9.9 percent in 1990. Historically, education
purchases have grown at roughly the same rate as
other State and local purchases. However, in the
projection period, growth of education purchases is
expected to slow markedly to an average rate of 2.2
percent annually between 1977 and 1980 and to
undergo an absolute decline of -0.7 percent
annually for the entire decade of the 1980’s. The
reduction is due primarily to projected dropoffs in
school enrollments. At the same time, however, the
projected rate of growth of other purchases will
also slow—2.0 percent annually between 1980 and
1985 and 1.7 percent each year, 1985-90. This
reflects a departure from previous years; State and
local governments steadily increased their share of
GNP from 9.8 percent in 1955 to 12.6 percent in
1977.
In summary, gross national product is expected
to recover quite strongly from the 1975 recession.
The economy will be particularly dependent on
strong growth in the investment sector. After 1980,
GNP growth is expected to slow somewhat as
labor force growth begins to moderate. The most
notable occurrence in the 1980’s will be the shift
away from government spending and into the
private sector, especially into personal consump­
tion. It is important to note that the change is
dependent upon the fiscal assumptions discussed
earlier and with other assumptions the results
would be different.

P rivate nonfarm
cap ita l sto c k

3.7
4.2
3.1
3.6
3.6
3.8

..
..
..
..
..
..

The 1975 recession slowed the growth of the
capital stock considerably. However, it is projected
to return to the historical rate by the latter part of
the 1980’s.
Foreign trade. Imports and exports have both
continued to account for a larger share of GNP
over time and this trend is projected to continue
throughout the projection period. In current-dollar
terms, the balance on the current and long-term
capital account is assumed to be a policy variable
with the long-term value of zero. Such a policy
would maintain the current-dollar balance on
goods and services at a relatively low positive level.
In the past, as import and export prices have
tended to move together both in terms of levels
and rates, a zero current-dollar balance implied a
zero constant-dollar balance. During the early
1970’s, average import prices grew at a much faster
rate than did average export prices. The disparity
was due primarily to much higher petroleum
prices, although world inflation in general was
higher than in the United States. It has been
assumed that foreign prices will once again move
at roughly the same pace as export prices during
the projection period. However, it is also assumed
that the level difference will never be made up.
Therefore, as the United States strives to maintain
a current-dollar balance of trade, the impact on
constant dollar trade will be to show a generally
more rapid rate of growth in exports relative to
imports, thereby improving the balance of real
trade over time.

Income distribution

National income, or that portion of GNP which
reflects the earnings of labor, capital, and property,
is projected to increase at a rate of 11.3 percent
annually (in current prices) during 1977-80, by
10.0 percent during 1980— and by 8.3 percent
85,
during 1985-90. This compares to a rate of growth
of national income between 1968 and 1973 of 8.3
percent and 9.2 percent annually in the 1973-77
period. National income will continue to account
for approximately 82.0 percent of total production
throughout the projection period. The income
flows generated in these projections are presented
in table 2 in the form of a national income
accounts derivation of personal and disposable
income from gross national product.

Government. The Government portion of GNP is
made up of purchases of goods and services and
excludes all other Government expenditures. Since
the high point of commitment in the Vietnam
conflict, the government share of GNP has been
dropping, primarily in the area of Federal demand.
Federal purchases are expected to decline to 7.0
percent of real GNP by 1980 and to 5.6 percent by
1990. It is important to emphasize that this does
not mean that Federal purchases are expected to
decline in absolute terms. Rather, the expected rate
of growth —1.0 percent annually between 1980 and



17

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • The U.S. Economy to 1990
Table 2. The derivation of personal income, 1955, 1968, 1973, and 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990
[C u rre n t d o lla r s

in

b illio n s ]

Projected
Actual

Component

I U - L ----1------ »

Base

n»gn om pouyuioiii

1955
Gross national p ro d u c t.........................................................................
Less:
Capital consumption a llo w an ce s.......................................
C o rp o ra te .............................................
N o ncorporate.............................................................................
Equals:
Net national product .........................................
Less:
Indirect business ta x e s .................................................................
Business transfer paym ents.........................................................
S tatistical discrepancy .................................................................
Plus:
Subsidies less current surplus of
government enterprises .......................
Equals:
National in com e ...............
Less:
Corporate pro fits plus inventory
valuation a dju stm e nt.....................................
S ocial insurance contributions .........................
Plus:
Transfer payments to persons .................................................
Net interest paid by government ...............................................
Interest paid by consum ers.......................................
Dividends ...................
Business transfer payments . . .
Equals:
Personal income ......................................... 4............
Less:
Personal taxes, F e d e ra l...........................................................
Personal taxes, State and lo c a l.................................................
Equals:
Disposable personal income .......................................................
Less:
Interest paid by consum ers.........................................................
Personal transfers to fo re ig n e rs .................................................
Personal consumption e xpe nd itu re s...........................................
Equals:
Personal s a v in g s ...........................................................................

1968

1973

1977

1980

1905

1990

1900

1905

1990

399.2

868.3

1,306.3

1,887.3

2,596.0

4,092.4

6,011.2

2,623.5

4,207.7

6,246.2

35.3
19.5
15.8

73.8

44.4
29.4

117.6
71.8
45.8

196.2
121.9
74.3

281.3
169.4
111.9

422.4
254.0
168.4

615.1
373.0
242.1

281.2
189.4
111.8

422.3
253.4
168.9

618.2
374.6
243.6

363.9

794.6

1,188.6

1,691.0

2,314.7

3,670.0

5,396.1

2,342.3

3,785.5

5,626.9

32.2
1.2
2.5

78.8
3.4
-0.6

120.2
5.4
2.6

165.1
9.6
4.7

224.4
9.4
0.0

303.7
14.2
0.0

379.5
21.3
0.0

224.2
9.4
0.0

305.1
14.2
0.0

403.8
21.3
0.0

-0.0

1.3

3.9

2.8

3.9

5.4

6.7

3.9

5.4

6.7

328.0

714.3

1,064.4

1,514.4

2,064.2

3,357.5

5,002.0

2,112.5

3,471.6

5,209.6

44.6

85.8
48.1

99.1
91.5

143.2
140.3

180.3
217.3

306.2
341.9

461.5
502.9

179.3
221.4

316.5
359.5

487.2
536.9

10.3
1.2

56.5
9.5
13.3
21.9
3.4

113.5
11.5
20.2
27.8
5.4

199.2
17.1
28.6
43.7
9.6

267.9
28.0
41.0
54.5
9.4

431.3
41.2
64.9
81.3
14.2

654.0
44.9
96.7
125.6
21.3

267.9
30.7
41.5
54.9
9.4

431.3
52.3
66.9
83.7
14.2

654.0
57.5
100.0
129.7
21.3

308.8

685.2

1,052.4

1,529.0

2,093.1

3,347.8

4,986.1

2,121.2

3,449.4

5,154.1

31.4
3.9

79.6
17.4

114.6
36.1

169.4
56.6

214.0
82.0

348.1
120.1

515.0
167.4

.1 211.3
88.0

358.4
136.4

536.2
184.3

273.4

588.1

901.7

1,303.0

1,797.1

2,879.7

4,303.7

1,821.9

2,954.6

4,433.5

4.4
0.4
253.7

13.3
0.8
535.9

20.2
1.3
809.9

28.6
1.0
1,206.5

41.0
1.2
1,653.0

64.9
1.5
2,655.4

96.7
1.9
3,966.2

41.5
1.2
1,669.6

66.9
1.5
2,709.3

100.0
1.9
4,062.0

14.9

38.1

70.3

66.9

102.0

157.8

238.9

109.6

176.9

269.7

11.5
16.2

4.6
4.4

Average annual n it of change
1955-68
Gross national p ro d u c t...............................................................
Less:
Capital consumption a llo w an ce s...................................................
C o rp o ra te ............................................. ........................................
N o ncorporate...............................................................................
Equals:
Net national product .......................
Less:
Indirect business ta x e s ...................................................................
Business transfer paym ents...........................................................
S tatistical discrepancy ...................................................................
Plus:
Subsidies less current surplus of
government enterprises ...............................................................
Equals:
National in com e .........................................
Less:
Corporate pro fits plus inventory
valuation a d ju stm e nt.....................................................................
S ocial insurance contributions .....................................................
Plus:
Transfer payments to persons .....................................................
Net interest paid by government .....................
Interest paid by consum ers...........................................................
Dividends .................................
Business transfer paym ents...........................................................
Equals:
Personal income .............................................................................
Less:
Personal taxes, Federal .................................................................
Personal taxes, State and lo c a l...................................................
Equals:
Disposable personal in c o m e ...................
Less:
Interest paid by consum ers...........................................................
Personal transfers to fo re ig n e rs ...................................................
Personal consumption e xpe nd itu re s.............................................
Equals:
Personal savings .................

1968-73

6.2

8.5

5.8
6.5
4.9

1977-90

1900-95

1905-90

1977-80

1900-05

1985-00

9.6

11.2

9.5

8.0

11.6

9.9

8.2

9.8
10.1
9.3

13.6
14.1
12.9

12.8
11.6
14.6

8.5
8.4
8.5

7.8
8.0
7.5

12.8
11.6
14.6

8.4
8.4
8.6

8.1
7.9
7.6

6.2

8.4

9.2

11.0

9.7

8.0

11.5

10.1

8.3

7.1
8.0

8.8
9.7

( ')

( ')

8.3
15.7
16.5

10.8
-0.8
-98.7

6.2
8.6
.0

4.6
8.4
.0

10.8
-.8
-98.7

6.3
8.6
.0

5.8
8.4
.0

C)

23.8

-8.0

12.1

6.9

4.3

12.1

6.9

4.3

6.2

8.3

9.2

11.3

10.0

8.3

11.7

10.4

6.5

5.2
11.7

2.9
13.8

9.6
11.3

8.1
15.8

11.1
9.5

8.5
8.0

7.8
16.5

12.0
10.2

9.0
8.4

10.1
5.7
8.8
6.0
8.0

15.0
4.0
8.7
4.8
9.7

15.1
10.4
9.1
11.9
15.7

10.4
19.1
12.7
7.8
-.8

10.0
8.0
9.7
8.3
8.6

8.7
1.7
8.3
9.1
8.4

10.4
21.5
13.1
8.0
-.8

10.0
11.2
10.0
8.7
8.6

8.7
1.9
8.4
9.2
8.4

6.3

9.0

9.8

11.0

9.8

8.3

11.5

10.2

8.4

7.4
12.1

7.6
15.7

10.3
11.8

8.1
13.2

10.2
7.9

8.1
6.9

7.5
16.0

11.2
9.1

8.4
6.2

6.1

8.9

9.6

11.3

9.9

8.4

11.8

10.2

8.5

8.8
5.4
5.9

8.7
8.9
8.6

9.1
-6.4
10.5

12.7
6.5
11.1

9.7
5.5
9.9

8.3
4.4
8.4

13.1
6.5
11.4

10.0
5.5
10.2

8.4
4.4
8.4

7.5

13.1

-1.2

15.1

9.1

8.7

17.8

10.1

8.8

'Not computable.
SOURCE: Actual data, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce: projected
data, Office of Economic Growth, BLS.




1973-77

18

Real disposable personal income will continue
to increase but at a declining rate:
Disposable
income

Period
1955-68
1968-73
1973-77
1977-80
1980-85
1985-90

Per capita
disposable
income

3.8
4.2
2.0
4.3
4.1
3.7

percent annually during this period—reflecting the
large assumed declines in the unemployment rate
over the remainder of the 1970’s. After 1980,
however, the annual growth of jobs is projected to
slow to a rate of 1.9 percent from 1980 to 1985 and
to 1.2 percent between 1985 and 1990.
The share of jobs between the public and private
sector is an important determinant of the level of
real supply GNP, for productivity in the public
sector is conventionally assumed to be very nearly
constant.8 Therefore, if public employment ac­
counted for larger shares of total employment, the
associated growth in GNP would be reduced.
Although Federal employment is expected to
expand during the 1980’s, the rate of change (0.7
percent annually) is considerably less than the
employment growth anticipated for the private
sector. The decline in military force levels experi­
enced after the end of the Vietnam conflict is
expected to taper off during the latter half of the
1970’s. The Armed Forces are projected to stabi­
lize at 2.1 million by 1980 and remain at that level
thereafter.
State and local government employment is also
expected to grow less rapidly than total employ­
ment. In the latter half of the 1950’s and during all
of the 1960’s, the growth in State and local
employment was due in large part to very rapid
growth in public education. Enrollment growth,
however, is expected to moderate significantly
during the 1980’s, leading to an annual growth in
the number of education-related employees of only
0.3 percent during 1980-85 and to annual declines
of -0.5 percent during 1985-90. The declines,
though, will be somewhat offset by continued
growth in noneducational programs and the
administrative employment associated with these
programs, although at a less rapid rate than in the
past.
As a result, private employment is expected to
expand more rapidly than total employment from
1977 to 1980 and at about the same pace as total
employment. Thus, the trend toward relatively
more public employees and relatively fewer private
workers is expected to be reversed, at least until
1990:

2.3
3.2
1.3
3.3
3.1
2.8

..
..
..
..
..
..

This slowing in the growth of real disposable
income is due primarily to slowing GNP growth,
but is accentuated by a deceleration in the growth
of projected Federal transfer programs. This will
be slightly offset by declining effective tax rates.
The net effect on per capita real disposable income
will be an increase from $4,300 in 1977 to $4,700 in
1980, $5,500 in 1985, and $6,300 in 1990.
The distribution of national income has under­
gone large historical shifts and is projected to
undergo further changes in the future:
1955
National income
(in percent) ........
Compensation ........
Private ......................
Government ___
Corporate ................
Other income ........

1977

1980

1985

1990

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
71.7 76.2 76.4 76.6
61.3 62.5 63.2 63.7
10.4 13.7 13.3 12.7
13.6
9.5
8.6
9.1
14.7 14.4 15.0 14.5

100.0
77.6
65.2
12.4
9.2
13.1

Corporate income includes pre-tax profits, and the
adjustments for change in inventory valuations.
Other income includes profits of partnerships and
proprietorships, interest, and rent. Between 1955
and 1977, the compensation share of national
income increased markedly and the trend is
expected to continue. The increase is due com­
pletely to the private sector, as growth in govern­
ment employment lags behind overall civilian job
growth.
Employment and hours

The number of jobs, the average number of
hours paid per job, and the level of real output per
hour are among the key determinants of potential
output in the economy. These factors are detailed
in table 3. From 1955 to 1968', the number of jobs
increased 1.6 percent annually or by about 1.1
million per year. A much higher growth was
experienced during the 1968-73 period—2.1 per­
cent average annual growth or 1.7 million new jobs
per year. The 1975 recession had the effect of
reducing jobs growth to 1.4 percent annually over
the 1973-77 period. Expected employment growth
from 1977 to 1980, however, is much higher—2.8



1955
Total employment .
P rivate.............................
Government ..................
Federal .......................
State and l o c a l ........
Education ..............
Other ......................

1977

1980

1985

1990

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
86.1 83.2 83.9 84.7 85.1
15.3 14.9
13.9 16.8 16.1
3.8
4.4
4.1
3.6
7.0
12.4 12.0 11.6 11.3
6.9
5.4
6.7
5.8
6.3
3.2
5.9
5.7
3.7
5.6
5.7

The declining public share of employment repre19

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • The U.S. Economy to 1990
Table 3. Labor force, employment, productivity, and groee national product, 1955, 1968, 1973, and 1977, and projected
to 1980, 1985, and 1990
[E m p lo y m e n t d a ta

in th o u s a n d s ]

Pro|tcM
Component

U ljik mm w 1im m a u l

mgn ofnpfojimni

Base
1955

1973

1977

1960

1985

1990

1990

1905

1990

68,072
2,853
65,219
3,416
68,657
9,520
4,779
3,049
1,730
4,741
2,180
2,561
59,137
6,424
52,713
2,126
2,473
2,083
4.54
1.84
4.93
654.7
84.3
570.2
29.2
541.2

82,272
2,817
79,455
4,364
83,864
14,521
5,670
3,535
2,135
8,851
4,798
4,053
69,343
3,663
65,680
2,001
2,354
1,981
6.63
3.41
6.85
1,051.8
131.7
920.1
29.4
890.7

91,040
4,305
86,735
4,557
91,292
15,185
4,354
2,326
2,028
10,831
5,916
4,915
76,107
3,206
72,901
1,961
2,290
1,943
7.34
4.40
7.49
1,235.0
138.9
1,096.1
32.3
1,063.8

99,534
6,855
92,679
3,501
96,180
16,143
4,253
2,133
2,120
11,890
6,491
5,399
80,037
2,922
77,115
1,918
2,306
1,903
7.72
5.11
7.84
1,332.6
147.1
1,185.5
34.4
1,151.1

106,099
5,721
100,378
3,973
104,351
16,755
4,241
2,069
2,152
12,514
6,579
5,935
87,596
2,974
84,622
1,900
2,235
1,888
8.15
5.73
8.25
1,511.2
154.3
1,356.9
38.1
1,318.8

115,041
5,309
109,732
4,708
114,440
17,547
4,315
2,069
2,226
13,232
6,679
6,553
96,893
2,922
93,971
1,867
2,180
1,858
9.07
6.67
9.16
1,803.3
162.8
1,640.6
42.5
1,598.0

121,456
5,371
116,065
5,119
121,204
18,066
4,389
2,069
2,300
13,677
6,513
7,164
103,138
2,634
100,504
1,839
2,126
1,832
10.24
8.08
10.31
2,112.8
169.4
1,943.4
45.3
1,698.2

107,554
5,801
101,753
4,060
105,833
17,941
4,241
2,069
2,152
13,700
6,579
7,121
87,892
2,974
84,918
1,900
2,235
1,888
617
571
6 26
1,526.4
162.8
1,363.7
37.9
1,325.7

119,095
4,680
114,415
5,212
119,627
19,994
4,315
2,089
2,226
15,679
6,679
9,000
99,633
2,922
96,711
1,868
2,180
1,859
8.98
6.65
9.07
1,853.1
180.3
1,672.8
42.4
1,630.5

127,692
5,024
122,668
5,732
128,400
19,902
4,389
2,089
2,300
15,513
6,513
9,000
108,498
2,634
105,864
1,840
2,126
1,833
10.08
8.07
10.14
2,196.2
182.6
2,013.6
45.2
1,968.4

1955-68

Total labor force (including m ilitary) .................................................
Unemployed ...............................................
Employed (persons c o n c e p t)...........................................................
Adjustm ent factor (persons to jobs) .............................................
Employment (jobs c o n c e p t).................................................................
General government .......................
Federal .....................................
M ilitary .......................
C ivilian .................................
State and local .............................
E d u ca tio n ...................................................................................
N oneducation.................................................
P riv a te ...............................................................................
A griculture .................................................................
Nonagriculture .............................
Private average annual hours per job . . . .
A griculture ...........................................
Nonagriculture ...................................................
Private GNP per hour (1972 d o lla rs ).........................................
A griculture ...........................................................................
Nonagriculture ...............................
Total GNP (billions o f 1972 dollars) .........................
General government .................................
P riv a te ...................................................................
A griculture .....................................................................................
Nonagriculture .....................................

1968

1968-73

1973-77

1.5
-.1
1.5
1.9
1.5
3.3
1.3
1.1
1.6
4.9
6.3
3.6
1.2
-4.2
1.7
-.5
-.4
-.4
3.0
4.9
2.6
3.7
3.5
3.7
.1
3.9

2.0
8.3
1.8
.7
1.7
.9
-5.1
-8.0
-1.0
4.1
4.3
3.9
1.9
-2.6
2.1
-.4
-.6
-.4
2.1
5.2
1.9
3.3
1.1
3.6
1.9
3.6

Average annual rale ol change

Total labor force (including m ilitary) .......................
Unemployed .....................................................................................
Employed (persons c o n c e p t).............................................................
Adjustm ent factor (persons to jobs) ...............................................
Employment (jobs c o n c e p t)...................................................................
General government ...........................................................................
Federal .............................................................
M ilitary . . .
C ivilian ...................
State and local ...................
E d u ca tio n .....................................................................................
N oneducation...........................................................
P riv a te .................................
A griculture ...................................................
Nonagriculture .................................................................................
Private average annual hours per jo b .................................................
A griculture .......................................................

Nonagriculture ............................................
Private GNP per hour (1972 d o lla rs ).........................
A griculture ...................................................................................
Nonagriculture ...............................
Total GNP (billions of 1972 dollars) ...................................................
General government ...................
P riv a te ...................................................................................................
A griculture .....................................................................................
. Nonagriculture .........................................................

SOURCE: Actual data on employment and labor force: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Actual GNP
data: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Projected data: Office of

2.3
13.0
1.7
-6.4
1.3
1.5
-.6
-2.1
1.1
2.4
2.3
2.4
1.3
-2.3
1.4
-.6
.2
-.5
1.3
3.8
1.1
1.9
1.5
2.0
1.6
2.0

1990-65

1905-90

1977-60

1990-85

1985-90

2.1
-5.8
2.7
4.3
2.8
1.2
-.1
-.7
.5
1.7
.4
3.2
3.1
.6
3.1
-.3
-1.0
-.3
1.8
3.9
1.7
4.3
1.6
4.6
3.2
4.6

1.6
-1.5
1.8
3.5
1.9
.9
.3
0
.7
1.1
.3
2.0
2.0
-.4
2.1
-.3
-.5
-.3
2.2
3.1
2.1
3.6
1.1
3.9
2.2
3.9

1.1
.2
1.1
1.7
1.2
.6
.3
0
.7
.7
-.5
1.8
1.3
-2.1
1.4
-.3
-.5
-.3
2.5
3.8
2.4
3.2
.8
3.4
1.2
3.5

2.6
-5.4
3.2
5.2
3.2
3.6
-.1
-.7
.5
4.8
.4
9.7
3.2
.6
3.3
-.3
-1.0
-.3
1.9
3.8
1.8
4.6
3.4
4.8
3.4
4.8

2.1
-4.2
2.4
5.0
2.5
2.2
.3
0
.7
2.7
.3
4.8
2.5
-.4
2.6
-.3
-.5
-.3
1.9
3.1
1.9
4.0
2.1
4.2
2.3
4.2

1.4
1.4
1.4
1.9
1.4
-.1
.3
0
.7
-.2
-.5
0
1.7
-2.1
1.8
-.3
-.5
-.3
2.3
3.9
2.3
3.5
.3
3.8
1.3
3.8

Economic Growth, BLS

sents the impact of demographic shifts, as well as
the apparent desire for a smaller government role
in the economy.

employed in part-time positions, at a much higher
rate than the male segment of the labor force. This
contributed to the service sector effect which is
projected to continue and will cut average weekly
hours. Female labor force participation rates are
also projected to grow at rather strong rates during
the 1980’s. However, it is assumed that the
disparity between part-time jobholding rates of
males and females will diminish during the 1980’s;
thus, the growth of female labor force participation
will no longer have an appreciable impact on the
average workweek. Women are expected to be
increasingly employed in all sectors of the econo­
my.

Hours. The decline in average weekly hours paid is
projected to continue at approximately the long­
term historical rate. In the private nonfarm sector,
the long-term decline in weekly hours has been
influenced by two factors: the trend toward more
service employees, which lowers average hours
because many work short weeks or on a part-time
basis, and the increase in female labor force
participation, which started in the mid-1960’s.
Many of the new female labor force entrants were



1977-60

20

base projection. State and local government
purchases of goods and services grow at an
appreciably more rapid rate than total GNP,
reflecting jobs program expenditures. This, along
with the somewhat higher rate of growth of
Federal purchases of goods and services, implies a
much larger share of GNP to government than in
the base projection—16.5 percent in 1990 as
opposed to 15.5 percent. In absolute terms,
however, all components of real demand GNP are
considerably higher in the high employment
alternative than in the base projection.
Finally, the high employment projection implies
a somewhat less rapid growth in private nonfarm
productivity during the 1980’s—1.9 percent each
year between 1980 and 1985 and 2.3 percent for
the 1985-90 period as opposed to 2.1 and 2.4
percent for the same periods in the base projection.
The lower productivity is an assumed result of less
experienced persons entering the labor force in
response to an increase in the demand for labor.

The high employment alternative

Although the high employment alternative is
based on the same population series as the base
projection, the ‘high growth’ labor force series was
chosen as the primary source of increased employ­
ment in the economy. It is assumed that the
unemployment rate will drop rapidly from 5.5
percent in 1980 to 4.0 percent in 1984 and remain
at that level thereafter. In the early 1980’s, it is
assumed that most of the increase in available
labor would be absorbed into the State and local
sector of the economy, funded by increases in
Federal grant programs. About 80.0 percent of the
employment increases over the base projection are
initially found in State job programs. The propor­
tion drops steadily to about 25.0 percent by 1990
as the private sector demand for labor picks up
over the decade in response to increased demand
for private goods and services.
Here is a comparison of the major fiscal
assumptions for the base and high employment
projections:
Federal
grants
1980
Base ...................................... ..........
High employment ............ ..........

90.1
107.4

182.3
190.4

1985
Base ...................................... ..........
High employment ............ ..........

125.6
174.2

266.6
279.5

1990
Base ...................................... ..........
High employment ............ ..........

176.4
222.8

h e f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n presents two views of
the U.S. economy to 1990. The base case examines
the result of a moderately expanding labor force
and relatively lower levels of government expendi­
tures on the economy. In contrast, the high
employment version studies the effect of very high
labor force and employment growth on the
economy. As noted, the growth of real GNP in the
base projection is 3.6 percent each year between
1980 and 1985 and 3.2 percent for the 1985-90
period. The high employment projection yields
rates of GNP growth of 4.0 percent and 3.5 percent
for these same periods. These projections hinge on
the underlying assumptions and even small chang­
es in the latter could effect significant changes in
the projections. It should also be noted that these
are longrun projections of the U.S. economy and
no attempt has been made to forecast cyclical
fluctuations.
□

T

Federal
purchases

369.6
380.3

All other fiscal policy levels remained unchanged
from the base projection.
The impact of increased employment is immedi­
ately apparent in terms of the real growth of
aggregate production. High employment GNP is
projected to increase 0.3 percent more rapidly each
year than the base GNP, leading to approximately
$83.0 billion more real output in 1990 than in the

1
The projections are part o f a BLS program o f studies aimed at Monthly Labor Review, March 1976, pp. 9-21; Thomas J. Mooney and
John H. Tschetter, “Revised industry projections to 1985,” Monthly
analyzing long-run economic growth. The primary objective is to
Labor Review, November 1976, pp. 3-9; and Max L. Carey, “Revised
develop projections o f employment requirements under alternative
occupational projections to 1985,” Monthly Labor Review, November
assumptions. Other articles in the series discuss industry final demand
1976, pp. \0-22. See also Valerie A. Personick and Robert A.
(pp. 47-55) and industry projections o f output and employment. As
Sylvester, “Evaluation o f BLS 1970 economic and employment
part of a continuing program to assess the validity o f BLS projections,
projections,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1976, pp. 13-26.
future articles will examine the projections o f the U.S. economy for
1975 and compare the 1985 BLS projections, published in 1973 and
2
The BLS economic growth model is a software system comprised
1976, with the current 1985 projections. See Ronald E. Kutscher,
o f a modified version o f the Thurow macroeconomic model, several
“Revised BLS projections to 1980 and 1985: an overview,” Monthly
demand submodels, and an input-output and industry level employ­
Labor Review, March 1976, pp. 3-8; Charles T. Bowman and Terry H.
ment model. The original version o f the macroeconomic model is
Morlan, “Revised projections o f the U.S. economy to 1980 and 1985,”
described in Lester C. Thurow, “A Fiscal Policy Model o f the United




21

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • The U.S. Economy to 1990
States,” Survey o f Current Business, June 1969. A detailed discussion

projections to 1990:

o f the remainder o f the economic growth model is currently being

6 A detailed discussion o f the productivity slowdown is contained in
Kutscher, Mark, and Norsworthy, “The productivity slowdown and
the outlook to 1985,!’ Monthly Labor Review, May 1977, pp. 3-8.

prepared for publication. A preliminary unpublished discussion o f
methodology and a complete description o f the operating system are
available from the Office o f Economic Growth.

7 The underlying stock estimates in the projections are consistent
with the gross stocks series presented in Fixed Nonresidential Business
and Residential Capital in the United States, 1925-75, Bureau o f
Economic Analysis, June 1976.

3 U.S. Bureau o f the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P25, No. 704.
4 Projections o f the number o f households are from U.S. Bureau o f

8 By National Income accounting conventions, it is assumed that
there is no change over time in Government productivity. Rather, it is
assumed that real output for a government employee is equal to that
person’s compensation in the dollar base year (1972 in this case).
Apparent changes in average real compensation reflect shifts in the
grade-structure o f government employees over time.

the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 607. School
enrollment participation rates by age group are drawn from Current
Population Reports, Series P-20, N o. 278.
5 The projections o f the U.S. labor force are fully detailed in the
article by Howard N Fullerton and Paul O. Flaim, “Labor force




three possible paths ,” in this issue.

22

Appendix. Supplem entary Tables

Table A-1. Gross national product by major component, 1 9 5 5 ,1 9 6 8 ,1 9 7 3 ,1 9 7 7 , and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990
[Current dollars

in b i l l i o n s ]
Projected

Actual
Ba se

Hiqh employment

Component
1955

1973

1977

1980

1985

1990

1980

1985

1990

| 13 06 .3

| 18 87 .3

2596.0

A0 9 2 . A

6011.2

2623.5

A207.7

62A6.2

535.9

|

809.7

| 12 06 .5

16 5A.7

2658.7

3-989.1

16 59 .8

2703.6

A089.0

Gross Priv at e D o me st ic Investment.
N o n r e s i d e n t i a l I n v e s t m e n t ........
Equi p m e n t ..........................
S t r u c t u r e s .........................
in B u s i n e s s I n v e n t o r i e s . .

68. A
38.6
22.7
15.8
23 . 8
6.0

131.5
90.0
55.3
3A .7
33 . 8
7.7

|
|
|
|
|
i

219.9
13 7. 3
90 .0
A7.2
6 A .7
17.9

|
|
j
|
|
i

A 17 .A
27 A .3
19A.5
79 .8
114.8
2 8 .3

668. A
A 18.0
299.6
1 18. A
2 0 4. 0
A 6 .A

95 5. 6
630.5
AA9.2
181.3
269.4
55 .7

A 16 . 1
2 7 0. 1
191.5
78.6
115.7
30 .3

678.3
A 1 9.9
3 0 0. 6
11 9. 3
207.9
5 0 .5

989. A
6 5 0. 0
A62.2
187.9
277 . 1
62 . 2

Ne t E x p o r t s .............................
E x p o r t s ...............................
I m p o r t s ...............................

20 .0
-17.8

2. 3
A 9 .9
-A7.7

|
j
I

7.1
101.6
-9A.A

I -1 1. 1
j
175.5
| -186.5

- 2 .9
253.9
-256.8

1.6
395.5
-393.9

5. A
608.6
-6 03 . 1

-5. 1
251.6
-256.8

-1 .7
A 12.9
-A1A.7

2. 1
663.5
-66 1 .A

552.7
190.4
105.5
8A.9
362.3
155.6
206.7

827.5
279.5
153.6
125.9
5A8.1
20A.9
3A3.1

Change

Consumption

CM

868.3

253. 7

Personal

CM

39 9. 2

Expenditures.

Gross national

p r o d u c t ..................

1968

297.8
192.1
133. A
58 .7
90 . 1
15.6

i

G o v e r n m e n t ..............................

75.0
763.7
1061.1
198.7 I 2 6 9 . 5
526.8
39A.0
98.0 |
36 9. 6
AA .A
102.2 |
145 . 1
182.2
26 6. 6
G o o d s ...............................
58 .7 j
26 . 1
50.3 j
139.8
187.3
78.6
97 .5
C o m p e n s a t i o n ......................
18. A
39 .3 |
5 1.9 |
66.A
8 A .8
12 6. 8
182.3
30.6
S t a t e a n d L o ca l P u r c h a s e s ........
100.7 i
167. 3 | 2 A 8 . 9
3 A A. 6
A97 . 1
691.5
G o o d s ...............................
1A .7
AA.8 |
70.2 |
1 0 7. A
153.7
198.1
2A9.9
C o m o e n s a t i o n ......................
15.8
55.9 j
97.1 I
1A 1.5
190.9
299.0
A A 1.6
SO UR C E : H i s t o r i c a l dat a, U.S. D e p a r t m e n t of C o m m e r c e ; p r o j e c t e d data, O f f i c e o f E c o n o m i c G r o w t h , BLS.

11 65. 7
3 8 0. 3
200.3
180.0
785.5
3 0 1. 0
A8A.5

"Table A-2. Gross national product by major component, 1 9 5 5 ,1 9 6 8 ,1 9 7 3 ,1 9 7 7 , and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990
[Average annual

r a t e s of ch an c e ,

curr en t dollars]
Projected
Actual
Base

H oh emDlovment

Component
1 9 68 -7 3

19 73 -7 7

19 77 -8 0

19 80 - 8 5

19 85 -9 0

1 9 77 -8 0

19 80 -8 5

19 85- 90
8. 2

6. 2

8. 5

9.6

11.2

9.5

8.0

11.6

9.9

Expenditures.

5. 9

Oo
O"

19 55 -6 8

10.5

11.1

9.9

8.5

11.2

10.2

Gross P r iv at e Dome st ic Investment.
N o n r e s i d e n t i a l I n v e s t m e n t ........
Equ i p m e n t ..........................
S t r u c t u r e s .........................
R e s i d e n t i a l I n v e s t m e n t ............
C h a n g e in B u s i n e s s I n v e n t o r i e s . .

5. 2
6.7
7 .1
6.2
2.7
2.0

10.8
8. 8
10.2
6. A
13.8
18. A

7.9
8. 8
10.3
5.6
8.6
-3. A

11.9
12.6
13. A
10.8
8. A
22 .0

9.9
8. 8
9.0
8. 2
12.2
10. A

7 .A
8.6
8. A
8. 9
5.7
3.7

1 1.8
12.0
12.8
10.2
8. 7
2A.8

10.3
9.2
9. A
8. 7
12. A
10.8

7.8
9. 1
9.0
9.5
5. 9
A.3

I m p o r t s ...............................

0 .1
7.3
7.9

25 .9
15.3
1A .7

0.0
1A .7
18.5

-35.9
13.1
11.2

0 .0
9.3
8. 9

2 7 .3
9.0
8. 9

-22.6
12.8
11.2

-19.5
10 .A
10. 1

0.0
10.0
9.8

11.9
9.5
10.3
8.5
13.3
13.2
13.5

8. A
8.0
7.8
8.2
8.6
5.7
10.7

7. 1
6. A
5.5
7. A
7. 5
8. 0
7 .1

Gross national
Personal

p r o d u c t ..................

Consumption

6.3
10.0
G o v e r n m e n t ..............................
7.8
0.8
9.2
F e d e r a l P u r c h a s e s ..................
6.3
6 .A
-3. 1
1 1.8
G o o d s ...............................
5.7
6.0
6. A
C o m p e n s a t i o n ......................
9.6
10.7
10. A
S t a t e a n d L o ca l P u r c h a s e s ........
8. 9
9. A
11.2
G o o d s ...............................
10.2
11.7
C o m o e n s a t i o n ......................
____ 2^2____
S O U R C E : H i s t o r i c a l dat a, U.S. D e p a r t m e n t of C o m m e r c e ; p r o j e c t e d da ta ,




23

7.7
6. 8
10.2
7.9
6.8
7.9
6.0
7. A
7. 5
8.5
8. A
7.5
7.6
6.8
11.5
12.7
5.2
A.8
9. A
10.5
8.1
O f f i c e of E c o n o m i c G r o w t h ,

BLS.

1

8.6

Table A-3. Government account, national income basis, 1 9 5 5 ,1 9 6 8 ,1 9 7 3 , 1977, and projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990
[Current

dollars

in b i l l i o n s ] ________
Projected

Actual
Component
1955

1968

1973

F e d e r a l G o v e r n m e n t R e c e i p t s .........
P e r s o n a l T a x e s .......................
C o r p o r a t e P r o f i t s T a x e s ............
I n d i r e c t B u s i n e s s T a x e s ............
S o c i a l I n s u r a n c e C o n t r i b u t i o n s . ..

72 .6
3 1.
«+
21 .1
10.7
9. A

179.7
79 .6
36 .3
18.0
9 0 .8

258.3
119.6
93 .0
21.2
7 9.4

|
I
I
|
i
|
|
i

Federal Government Expenditures....
P u r c h a s e s o f G o o d s ..................
C o m p e n s a t i o n ..........................
T r a n s f e r P a y m e n t s ...................
G r a n t s - i n-ai d .........................
Ne t I n t e r e s t P a i d ....................
S u b s id ie s Less Current Surplus...

68.1
26. 1
18. A
19.5
3 .1
9.6
1.5

180.6
58 .7
39 .3
98. 1
18.6
11.9
9.5

265.0
50 . 3
5 1.9
9 5 .8
90 . 6
18.2
8.2

i
|
|
|
|
|
|

1977

1980

1985

1990

1980

1985

1990

379.9
169.9
6 1 .3
25.0
118.7

522.6
2 19.0
75 .9
39 . 8
19 3. 9

812.9
39 8. 1
117.3
92 .7
309.3

1 1 68 .8
5 1 5. 0
168.9
37.7
9 9 7. 1

5 2 1. 7
211.3
75 .0
39 .9
195.5

838.6
358.4
120.7
43.0
316.5

1228.1
536.2
177.4
38 .4
475.9

9 2 2. 6
78.6
66 .9
172.7
67 .9
29. 1
8. 3

559.9
97.5
89.8
231.6
90 . 1
90.9
9.5

832.9
139.8
126.8
37 1.6
125.6
56 .6
12.5

1 1 91 .2
187.3
182.3
565.5
176.9
69 .3
15.5

582.5
105.5
89.9
231.6
107.9
93 .6
9.5

9 0 5. 5
153.6
125.9
37 1.6
174.2
67.7
12.5

1 2 60 .8
200.3
180.0
565.5
222.8
76.9
15.5

( - ) .........

9.9

-5 .8

-6 . 7

!

-98. 1

-31.7

-20.5

-22.5

-60.8

-66.9

-32.8

S t a t e a n d L o ca l R e c e i p t s .............
P e r s o n a l T a x e s .......................
C o r p o r a t e P r o f i t s T a x e s ............
I n d i r e c t B u s i n e s s T a x e s ............
Social Insurance Contributions...
F e d e r a l G r a n t s - i n - a i d ..............

31 .7
3.9
1.0
21 .6
2.1
3. 1

107. 2
17.9
3. 1
60 . 8
7.2
18.6

19 3. 5
36.1
5.7
99.0
12.1
4 0 .6

|
|
|
|
|
|

296.2
56.6
10.5
190.0
21.7
67 .9

393.9
82 . 0
13.3
189.6
29.0
90. 1

563.7
120. 1
19.9
261.0
37.6
125.6

768.5
16 7. 9
27 . 2
391.8
55 .8
176.9

419.0
88.0
13.3
184.4
2 5 .9
107.4

635.2
136.4
19.4
262.2
43. 1
174.2

860.5
184.3
27 . 2
365.3
6 1.0
222.8

S t a t e a n d L o ca l E x p e n d i t u r e s ........
P u r c h a s e s of G o o d s . .................
C o m p e n s a t i o n ..........................
T r a n s f e r P a y m e n t s ...................
N e t I n t e r e s t P a i d . ..................
Subsidies Less Current Surplus...

32 .9
19.7
15.8
3.8
0. 1
- 1 .5

106.9
99 . 8
55 . 9
10.6
-1 .2
-3 . 2

18 0. 5
70.2
97.1
20.3
-2 . 9
-4.4

|
|
|
|
|
|

2 6 6. 6
107.9
191.5
29 .7
-6 .5
-5.6

371.3
153.7
190. 9
9 0 .2
-7.9
-5 .6

599.9
198.1
2 9 9. 0
69 . 8
-9 . 9
-7 .0

769.9
299.9
991.6
99.9
-13.3
-8 . 8

3 8 9. 0
155.6
206.7
40 . 2
-7 . 9
-5 .6

595.9
204.9
343. 1
64.8
-9 . 9
-7 .0

858.3
3 0 1. 0
484.5
94 .9
-13.3
-8.8

Federal

s u r p l u s or d e f i c i t

SS L s u r p l u s or d e f i c i t ( - ) ..............
0.3
13.0 I
29.6
22.6
18.8
S O U R C E : H i s t o r i c a l dat a, U.S. D e p a r t m e n t of C o m m e r c e ; p r o j e c t e d da ta , O f f i c e of E c o n o m i c G r o w t h ,

9 .1
BL S

30.0

39 .3

2. 2

Table A-4. Major exogenous assumptions, 1 9 5 5 ,1 9 6 8 , 1 9 7 3 ,1 9 7 7 , and projected to 1 9 8 0 ,1 9 8 5 , and 1990
Pro

Ac t u a l
A s s u m p t i on

ected - Base

1955

1968

1973

1977

1980

1985

1990

U r b a n p o p u l a t i o n ...............................................
S c h o o l e n r o l l m e n t .............................................
N u m b e r of h o u s e h o l d s ..........................................
C i v i l i a n l a b o r f o r c e ..........................................

165.9
110.9
37 .4
4 7 .9
65.0

2 0 0. 7
145.5
57 .5
60 . 4
78.7

2 10.4
157.1
57 .7
6 8 .3
88 . 7

216.8
168.3
57 .6
75 .0
97.4

222.8
177.1
5 5 .5
79 . 4
104.0

234. 1
192.6
55 .0
87.2
113.0

245. 1
208.5
58 .0
94.3
119.4

U n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e ( p e r c e n t ) ................................
M i l i t a r y e m p l o y m e n t ( m i l l i o n s of p e r s o n s ) ..............
F e d e r a l c i v i l i a n e m p l o y m e n t ................................
A g r i c u l t u r a l e m p l o y m e n t ......................................
P r i v a t e GN P d e f l a t o r ( 1 9 7 2 = 1 0 0 . 0 ) .........................

4.4
3.0
1 .7
6.4
64 .0

3.6
3.5
2. 1
3.7
84. 1

4.9
2.3
2.0
3.2
105.6

7 .0
2. 1
2. 1
2.9
141.6

5.5
2. 1
2.2
3.0
17 1.0

4.7
2. 1
2.2
2.9
223.5

4.5
2. 1
2.3
2.6
277.2

F a r m e q u i p m e n t p u r c h a s e s ( b i l l i o n s of 1972 $ ) .........
F a r m s t r u c t u r e s p u r c h a s e s ...................................
E q u i p m e n t d i s c a r d s ............................................
S t r u c t u r e s d i s c a r d s ...........................................
R e s i d e n t i a l s t r u c t u r e s d i s c a r d s ...........................

4.2
1 .3
19.9
12.1
5.9

5.6
1 .7
36 .6
15. 1
8.0

6.3
2.0
48 .4
18.2
9.9

7.0
2.0
5 6 .5
18.7
15.4

9.0
2. 2
66 .4
19.2
12.4

9.8
2.3
78 . 2
25 .6
15.4

11.2
2.6
99 .3
2 8 .3
20 .0

r a t e ...............................

2. 5
1.2
3.8
85.3
1.75

-0 .6
1.5
8.6
89.9
5. 34

2.6
2.0
11.3
90.0
7 . 04

5. 2
2. 3
12.2
90.7
5. 27

0.0
1.8
12.3
9 1.3
6. 57

0.0
1.3
13.4
9 1.8
5. 7 9

0.0
1.2
13.6
92.0
5. 86

3- 5 y e a r g o v e r n m e n t b o n d r a t e ..............................
F e d e r a l q a s o l i n e t a x ( c e n t s p e r g a l l o n ) .................
M o t o r fu el u s a g e ( m i l l i o n s of g a l l o n s ) ..................
F e d e r a l c o r p o r a t e p r o f i t s ta x r a t e ( p e r c e n t ) ..........
E x p o r t s of g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ( b i l l i o n s of 1972 $)...

2.5
2.0
47 .7
52 .0
27.9

5.6
4.0
82.9
52 . 8
58 . 5

6.9
4.0
110.5
48.0
87.4

6.9
4.0
113.0
48 .0
98 .2

7.7
4.0
109.8
45 .0
117.0

6.8
4.0
106.8
45 .0
139.3

6. 5
4.0
110. 3
4 5 .0
173. 1

F e d e r a l p u r c h a s e s l e s s c o m p e n s a t i o n ......................
F e d e r a l t r a n s f e r p a y m e n t s ( b i l l i o n s of c u r r e n t $) .. ..
F e d e r a l g r a n t s to S&L g o v e r n m e n t ..........................
F e d e r a l s u b s i d i e s to e n t e r p r i s e s ..........................
SS L c o r p o r a t e p r o f i t s t a x e s ................................

4 1.0
14.5
3. 1
1.5
1.0

70 . 2
48. 1
18.6
4.5
3. 1

48 . 3
95 .9
40 .6
8.2
5.7

52 . 9
172.7
6 7 .4
8. 3
10.5

56.0
2 3 1. 6
90 . 1
9.5
13.3

6 1.5
371.6
125.6
12.5
19.4

66.5
565.5
176.4
15.5
27.2

3.8
0.1
-1 .5

10.6
- 1 .2
-3 .2
Ac t u a l

20 . 3
-2 . 9
-4 . 4

29 .7
- 6 .5
-5 .6

Unemployment

insurance contribution

3 - m o n t h g o v e r n m e n t b i ll

rate (percent)...

78 .7
88 . 7
65 .0
C i v i l i a n l a b o r f o r c e ( m i l l i o n s o f p e r s o n s ) .............
4.9
4.4
3.6
U n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e ( p e r c e n t ) .................. ..............
70 . 2
48 . 3
4 1.0
F e d e r a l p u r c h a s e s l e s s c o m p e n s a t i o n ( b i l l i o n s of 72$)
3. 1
18.6
40 .6
F e d e r a l o r a n t s ( b i l l i o n s of c u r r e n t $ ) ..................
S O U R C E : H i s t o r i c a l dat a, U.S. D e p a r t m e n t s of La bo r, C o m m e r c e , a n d T r a n s p o r t a t i o n ;




24

40 . 2
-7 .9
-5.6
Projected -

64 . 8
94 .9
-9 . 9
-13.3
-7 .0
-8.8
Hiah employment

125.6
97 .4
105.5
117.0
4.0
7.0
5.5
4.0
52 . 9
60 .6
67 .6
7 1.1
174.2
222.8
67 . 4
107.4
p r o j e c t e d da ta , O f f i c e of E c o n o m i c G r o w t h ,

BLS.

Industry output and employment:
BLS projections to 1990
Productivity gains and strong investment
and consumption will stimulate output;
employment growth, led by services and
trade, will ebb as the labor force
expansion o f the 1970's decelerates
V a l e r ie

A.

P e r s o n ic k

Slower employment growth in most industries, a
reversal of the trend toward a larger share of jobs
in the public sector, and a return to more rapid
productivity gains are some of the highlights of the
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest long-range
projections of employment and output by industry.
Among the 149 industries studied, 112 will
experience output increases that will more than
offset declines in unit labor requirements (or
increases in productivity). For 17 industries,
productivity gains will more than offset increases
in output, causing employment in these sectors to
decline during 1977-90. For three additional
industries, productivity gains will be compounded
by projected increases in the average workweek,
causing employment to decline in these sectors.
Seven sectors will experience employment declines
because both output and unit labor requirements
are expected to drop.
This article is the fourth in a series that describes
BLS projections to the year 1990.1 Two sets of
employment projections for 1990 were prepared.
The base forecast assumed a moderately expand­
ing labor force, a slow decline in inflation and
unem ploym ent, and m oderate governm ent
expenditures. The high employment alternative
assumed a much larger labor force and a morethan-offsetting emphasis on job creation through

government grants, which would lower the unem­
ployment rate significantly. All data in this article
refer to the base case except for a separate section
describing the results of the high employment
alternative.
Overview of the economy through 1990

Many factors influence the projections of em­
ployment by industry; among them are labor force
characteristics, labor productivity, government
revenue and expenditure policies, changes in
consumer preferences, competition from foreign
products, and changes in business purchasing and
investment patterns.
^
Employment and productivity. Total civilian em­
ployment is projected to grow from 93.7 million
jobs in 1977 to 118.6 million jobs in 1990, an
average annual gain of 1.9 million new jobs. This
increase represents a deceleration in the rate of job
expansion over the previous two decades. Between
1959 and 1973, employment grew at the rate of 2.0
percent per year. During 1973-77, job growth
slowed to 1.4 percent a year because of the
recession. BLS projects the annual rate of growth
to accelerate to 2.8 percent between 1977 and 1980,
then to taper to 1.9 percent during 1980-85 and 1.2
percent between 1985 and 1990. Over the total
projection period 1977-90, the rate of job growth
will average 1.8 percent per year.
The projected decline in the rate of job growth
after 1980 will result primarily from a projected

Valerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office o f Economic
Growth, Bureau o f Labor Statistics.




25

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment

slowdown in the rate of expansion of the labor
enced or less educated (or both) than their adult
male counterparts, and the reallocation of invest­
force. (See table 1.) Since the 1950’s, the growth
ment toward pollution control and safety and
rate of the labor force has been accelerating,
health expenditures.3 These factors are not expect­
averaging 1.7 percent a year between 1959-68, 2.0
ed to play the same role in the next decade; in fact,
percent between 1968-73, and 2.3 percent between
the age composition of the labor force should serve
1973-77. However, the rate of labor force growth is
to boost productivity growth in the future. Work­
projected to average 2.1 percent per year during
ers born in the post-World-War-II baby boom are
1977-80, 1.6 percent during 1980-85, and 1.1
moving into the typically more experienced (hence,
percent during 1985-90.2 This slowdown in the
more productive) age groups. As a consequence of
rate of growth will pervade almost all industries,
this and other factors, productivity in the private
with employment in many industries declining in
nonfarm sector is projected to increase an average
the late 1980’s.
of 1.7 percent per year during 1977-80, 2.1 percent
As the economy fully recovers from the 1975
per year during 1980-85, and 2.4 percent during
recession, the unemployment rate is assumed to
1985-90.
drop from its 7.0-percent 1977 level to 5.5 percent
As a result, growth in real GNP is expected first
in 1980. After 1980, the unemployment rate is
to continue to rebound strongly from the 1975
assumed to decline even further, approaching full
recession, then to taper to a rate consistent with
employment, to 4.7 percent in 1985 and 4.5 percent
the long-term trend. The growth rate will average
in 1990.
3.6 percent annually in the first half of the 1980’s
The trend of faster job growth for the public
decade and 3.2 percent in the second half.
sector is expected to reverse in the next decade.
While the number of jobs was growing more
Final demand. During the initial projection period,
rapidly in government than in the private sector
1977-80, producers’ durable equipment is project­
throughout the past three decades, private sector
ed to be one of the fastest-growing segments of
job growth in the 1980’s is expected to outpace that
GNP. (See table 2.) The sharp rise in this category
of the public sector. This reversal mainly reflects a , of final demand reflects the assumption that
projected decline in public school enrollment and,
investment decisions delayed in the early and
consequently, a lower demand for workers in State
middle 1970’s will be undertaken. Growth is
and local government education.
expected to continue through 1990, as business
Productivity in the private nonfarm sector is
strives to use the most energy-efficient methods of
projected to rise faster than it did during 1968-77,
production. However, investment in new plants
although the rate will not match that of 1955-68,
will not follow the same path as investment in
when private nonfarm productivity rose by 2.6
equipment: it is projected to grow faster than GNP
percent each year. Some of the factors that have
during 1977-80; slower than GNP during 1980-85,
been suggested as causes for the post-1968 slow­
reflecting a traditional dropoff in purchases of
down include the entry into the labor force of more
structures following a period of sustained growth;
women and youths, who typically are less experi­
then at about 4.4 percent annually—its long-term
rate—after 1985.
Personal consumption expenditures, particularly
Table 1. Average annual rate of change In GNP and
for durable goods and services, is projected to
major determinants, actual and projected, selected
periods 1959-90
_________
grow faster than overall GNP during the 1980’s,
1959-68 1968-73 1973-77 1977-60 1980-6S 1985-90
Category
rising from 64.4 percent in 1977 to 67.6 percent in
1.1
1990. Assumed tax cuts over the period are
1.7
2.1
1.6
2.0
2.3
Total labor force (Including m ilitary)
2.8
1.8
1.2
1.8
2.1
1.8
C ivilian employed (p e rso n s)...............
expected to free more disposable income for
1.4
1.9
1.2
2.1
2.8
C ivilian employed (jobs)1 ...................
1.9
consumers, thus resulting in a larger share of
.7
1.1
3.2
2.2
1.5
4.5
Government (excluding m ilitary) . .
2.0
1.3
1.5
1.9
1.3
3.1
P riv a te ___ ■
......................................
income devoted to consumption. The types of
-4
-2.1
-4.4
-2.3
.6
Farm .............................................
-2.6
1.4
2.1
1.4
3.1
Nonfarm .......................................
2.0
2.1
goods and services purchased also are expected to
Private nonfarm average annual
change as the age mix of the population changes.
-.4
-.3
-.4
-.5
-.3
-.3
hours paid per job ...........................
The population will be more heavily weighted with
1.1
1.7
3.0
1.8
.8
1.7
Private nonfarm tota l hours paid . . .
people age 25 to 44 and with those over age 64.
Private nonfarm GNP per hour
2.4
1.7
1.1
2.1
2.8
1.9
(1972 d o lla rs )....................................
The number of persons age 16 to 24 will actually
3.2
1.9
4.3
3.6
4.3
3.3
Total GNP (1972 d o lla rs )...................
drop, while those age 45 to 64 and under 16 will
1.1
4.1
1.1
1.5
1.6
.8
Government com pensation.............
3.4
4.6
3.9
4.3
3.6
2.0
Private GNP .....................................
maintain their present levels. One impact of these
2.2
1.2
.5
1.9
1.6
3.2
Farm .............................................
demographic changes will be a higher level of
3.9
3.5
Nonfarm
4.5
2.0
4.6
3.6
'Employment on a jobs basis is a count ot jobs rather than persons holding jobs; a person holding
output for medical care services, required for an
more than one job could be counted more than once.
older population.



26

Table 2. Distribution of GNP by major components,
actual and projected, selected years 1963-90
[Percent distribution in 1972 dollars]
Com ponent*
G row national p ro d u c t.......................
Personal consumption expenditures
Durables .......................................
N ondurables.................................
Services .......................................
Gross private dom estic investment
Nonreaidential structures ...........
Producers’ durable equipm ent. .
Residential structures .................
Change in business inventories
Net exports .....................................
Exports .........................................
Im ports .........................................
Government p urcha ses...................
Federal .........................................
D efense.....................................
Nondefense .............................
State and local ...........................
Education .................................
Health, welfare, and sanitation
Safety .......................................
O th e r.........................................

1M 3

1967

1977

1980

1985

1990

100.0
60.4
7.3
26.8
26.2
15.0
3.7
5.2
5.1
.9
.9
5.1
-4.2
23.6
12.3
9.7
2.6
11.5
4.7
1.6
.9
4.3

100.0
59.9
7.9
25.8
26.2
15.1
4.1
6.3
3.6
1.2
.4
5.4
-5.0
24.6
12.4
9.8
2.6
12.2
5.2
1.8
.9
4.3

100.0
64.4
10.3
24.8
29.2
14.7
3.0
6.8
4.2
.7
.7
7.4
-6.7
20.2
7.6
5.0
2.7
12.6
5.3
2.5
.8
3.8

100.0
64.0
10.6
24.4
29.0
15.4
3.0
7.4
3.9
1.2
1.1
7.7
-6.7
19.6
7.0
4.9
2.1
12.6
5.0
3.0
1.0
3.6

100.0
65.7
11.5
24.2
30.0
15.9
2.9
7.4
4.3
1.3
1.1
7.7
-6.6
17.3
6.2
4.1
2.1
11.1
4.1
2.8
.9
3.3

100.0
67.6
12.4
23.9
31.3
15.7
3.1
7.6
3.9
1.1
1.3
8.2
-6.9
15.5
5.6
3.7
1.9
9.9
3.4
2.7
.8
3.0

In the government sector, purchases of goods
and services for defense are projected to rise
considerably slower than total GNP. State and
local government purchases are projected to slow
even more dramatically. The State and local
slowdown primarily reflects declining school en­
rollment at all levels of education (with the
exception of 2-year colleges), but the decrease will
be pervasive across all State and local government
functions. Even health and welfare purchases,
which have been rising faster than GN P in the past
and are expected to continue to do so until 1980,
are projected to grow more slowly than GNP
between 1980 and 1990.
Energy. Regarding the energy situation in the
1980’s,4 it was assumed that coal and electricity
will be more readily available than other energy
sources and that their prices will rise less rapidly
than prices of natural gas and oil. Supplies of
natural gas are projected to decline over the next
decade, except for a brief upturn in 1982, when
Alaskan natural gas should become available.
Domestic production of petroleum is expected to
grow very slowly, as production in the lower 48
States declines. Because of increased imports,
however, petroleum is projected to retain its share
of total energy consumed.
Output by industry

Table 3 and chart 1 show the changing levels
and composition of output that are expected to
result from the projections of the aggregate
economic variables, the industry distribution of
demand, and the input-output structure of the U.S.
economy.5



27

Communications the fastest growing sector. After
full recovery from the 1974 recession, several long­
term trends in the distribution of output among
major sectors are expected to resume. Most
noticeable is a marked increase in the output share
of the communications sector. This trend reflects
the integral part technology and changes in
demand play in contributing to economic growth.
Since 1955, numerous innovations, such as elec­
tronic switching equipment, higher speed and
greater capacity transmission systems, and auto­
mated equipment to handle both long- and shortdistance telephone services, have minimized the
cost of communications, thereby leading to in­
creased demand. In addition, demand has been
boosted by the computer and its ability to handle
large volumes of data. These historical trends are
projected to continue through the next decade,
raising the share of output accounted for by the
communications sector to 4.8 percent by 1990.
Output growth projected for communications will
average 6.4 percent a year between 1977 and 1990,
compared with an average of 3,9 percent for all
industries.
Agriculture and construction shares decline. Farm
output will continue to decline in importance
through the next decade, reflecting slow growth in
both food purchases and food exports. Because
most of the population already enjoys an adequate
diet, increases in purchases of food for consump­
tion at home are projected to rise only slightly
faster than the population, but considerably slower
than purchases of other commodities. This slow­
down will affect not only farm output but will also
cause output of some manufactured food indus­
tries to show very little growth, particularly dairy
products and bakery products.
The declining share of construction output
reflects, in part, a projected sharp slowdown in new
highway construction. With the close of the peak
years of the Interstate Highway Program in the
late 1960’s, future expenditures for highways are
assumed to be principally devoted to maintaining
the existing system. Also contributing to the slow
growth of construction output is the expected
tapering of residential construction activity after
1985. Housing construction is projected to grow
more slowly than GNP in the latter part of the
decade because of a slowdown in the rate of new
household formation, the result of changes in the
age distribution of the population.
Manufacturing share steady. Output of nondurable
goods is projected to grow more slowly than total
output over the years 1980-90, while durable goods

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment
Table 3. Gross product originating1 by major sector, actual and projected, eelected years 1959-90
[Levels in billions of 1972 dollars]
Level
Industry M cto r

Total p riv a te ........................................
A griculture ......................................
Nonagriculture .................................
Mining ...........................................
Contract co n stru ctio n .................
Manufacturing .............................
Durable g o o d s .........................
Nondurable g o o d s...................
Transportation, communications,
and public u tilitie s .....................
Transportation .........................
Communication .......................
Public u tilitie s ...........................
Wholesale and retail trade . . . .
W holesale.................................
R e ta il.........................................
Finance, insurance, and
real estate .................................
O ther services2 ...........................
Government enterprises .............
Rest o f the w orld and
statistica l difference .................

A v trtQ t annual raia of chanty#

1959

1961

1973

1977

1990

1995

1990

628.6
28.2
600.4
14.2
45.5
170.7
100.7
70.0

920.1
29.4
690.7
18.1
62.5
268.4
165.5
102.9

1096.0
32.3
1063.7
19.2
58.3
313.0
189.0
124.0

1185.5
34.4
1151.1
19.9
56.9
322.4
190.9
131.5

1,356.9
38.1
1,318.8
23.6
64.9
366.5
226.1
140.4

1,640.6
42.5
1,598.1
26.3
74.9
439.7
273.8
165.9

1,943.4
45.3
1,898.1
28.8
81.9
518.5
325.2
193.3

4.3
.5
4.5
2.7
3.6
5.2
5.7
4.4

55.8
30.3
11.5
14.0
115.8
42.3
73.5

88.2
43.5
21.2
23.5
170.6
68.1
102.5

112.6
50.6
32.0
30.0
212.0
88.8
123.2

124.0
51.9
42.0
30.1
227.9
96.1
131.8

147.7
64.1
50.3
33.3
264.5
114.5
150.0

186.9
76.5
68.9
41.5
319.0
134.7
184.3

234.9
90.9
94.0
50.0
377.2
156.2
221.0

96.1
62.8
11.8

142.9
119.3
16.4

171.1
146.6
18.4

204.0
162.9
18.5

235.5
180.4
23.9

289.3
219.4
28.1

5.7

4.3

12.5

14.6

11.8

14.5

1959-01

1960-73

1973-77

1977-10

1960-16

1906-00

3.6
1.9
3.6
1.2
-1.4
3.1
2.7
3.8

2.0
1.6
2.0
.9
-.6
.7
.3
1.5

4.6
3.5
4.6
5.9
4.5
4.4
5.8
2.2

3.9
2.2
3.9
2.2
2.9
3.7
3.9
3.4

3.4
1.3
3.5
1.8
1.8
3.4
3.5
3.1

5.2
4.1
7.0
5.9
4.4
5.4
3.8

5.0
3.1
8.6
5.0
4.4
5.5
3.7

2.4
.6
7.0
.1
1.8
2.0
1.7

6.0
7.3
6.2
3.4
5.1
6.0
4.4

4.6
3.6
6.5
4.5
3.8
3.3
4.2

4.7
3.5
6.4
3.8
3.4
3.0
3.7

348.6
264.7
32.3

4.3
4.1
3.7

3.7
4.2
2.3

4.5
2.7
.1

4.9
3.5
6.9

4.2
4.0
3.3

3.8
3.8
2.8

11.2

-3.1

23.8

4.0

-6.9

4.2

-5.0

'Gross product originating represents the value added by an industry after costs of materials and
secondary products made in other industries have been subtracted from total output,
includes private households.

output should grow slightly faster. These trends
reflect not only the investment forecast and its
impact on durable goods but also (1) a projected
shift in the composition of personal consumption
expenditures away from nondurables toward dura­
ble goods and (2) a higher share of total GNP
accounted for by exports of capital goods. How­
ever, the growth in output from durable goods
industries is not projected to be as high as it could
be, given these trends in investment, personal
consumption, and exports, because of several
offsetting expectations: imports are projected to be
composed to a greater extent of capital goods
rather than raw materials, and the slow growth of
defense purchases will pinch output for several
durable goods industries. J
Aircraft manufacturing will be the industry most
affected by the defense slowdown. Cutbacks in
purchases of military aircraft will offset projected
high levels of civilian aircraft purchases, causing
output of the aircraft industry to grow only
modestly in the 1980’s. Civilian aircraft purchases
are expected to rise substantially over the next
decade, as commercial airlines (both domestic and
foreign) continue to replace or significantly modify
their present fleet of jets because of age, noise, and
energy-efficiency problems.
Projected output of the shipbuilding industry
also reflects the slowdown in defense expenditures.
High levels of investment in offshore drilling
equipment are expected, but a drop in defense
demand will offset this growth.
The following tabulation shows the average
annual rate of change in output, 1977-90, for the
fastest growing industries, the most rapidly declin­
ing, and those which are energy related:



In dustry

A vera g e annual
ra te o f output
change

Fastest growing:
Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts ........
Floor coverings ........................................
Electronic components ...........................
Synthetic fib e r s..........................................
Radio and television receiving sets . . .

9.3
9.1
8.3
7.8
7.3

Most rapidly declining:
Private households ...................................
Wooden containers ...................................
Structural clay products .........................
Gas utilities ................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather

-3.0
-1.8
-1.0
-1.0
-.8

Energy and related sectors:
Coal m in in g ................................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas ___
Oil and gas well drilling and
exploration ................................................
Petroleum refining and related
p rod u cts......................................................
Electric utilities ........................................
Gas utilities ................................................

4.5
1.7
2.6
.3
6.0
-1.0

The five most rapidly growing industries are all in
the manufacturing sector; output in these indus­
tries is projected to expand by 7 to 9 percent a year
between 1977 and 1990, compared to 3.9 percent
annually for all industries.
Services on the rise. The services sector of the
economy is projected to grow somewhat faster
than the total economy during 1980-90, reflecting
a number of trends. The shift within personal
consumption expenditures from goods to services,
particularly medical services, is one such trend.
28

Doctors’ and dentists’ services are projected to
grow 5.5 percent a year between 1977 and 1990;
hospital growth is projected at 5.7 percent a year.
Another industry in the service sector showing
rapid growth will be miscellaneous business serv­
ices. The projected annual increase of 5.6 percent
in this area reflects the rising demand by firms to
contract for a wide variety of services rather than
perform these functions in-house. Examples are
computer data processing, temporary secretarial or
clerical help, cleaning services, and protective
services.

Finance, insurance, and real estate output will
rise slightly as a share of total output in the 1980’s,
following a sharp rise between 1973 and 1977. The
demand for finance and insurance is largely
centered in business activity rather than consumer
activity, thus the recent increase can be explained
by the recovery of business investment. Because
investment is projected to be strong through 1990,
the share of output accounted for by this sector
will move up slightly through the next decade. Also
contributing to the rise will be an increased
demand for consumer credit services.

Chart 1. Gross product originating in the total private economy, by major sector, selected years
1959-77, and projections to 1980, 1985, and 1990
Percent distribution

Percent

100 r-

90

—O th e r1

-

—Services

80
Finance,
insurance, and
real estate

70

60
— Trade

50

Transportation,
—communication,
and public utilities

40

30

20

— Manufacturing

10
— Construction
— Agriculture

1959 '

1968

1973

1977

1980

1 Includes mining, government enterprises, and rest of the world industry plus statistical discrepancy.




29

1985

1990

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment
Table 4. Employment by Industry, actual and projected, selected years 1968-90
[In

th o u s a n d s ]

Actual
Industry

Bata c u t

1968

1977

1990

1985

Total p riv a te ..................................................................................................................................................

67,990

78,526

85,893

94,986

A griculture:
Dairy and poultry products ...........................................................................................................................
Meat animals and liv e s to c k ...........................................................................................................................
Cotton ..............................................................................................................................................................
Food and feed g ra in s ........................................................................._..........................................................
Other agricultural products ...........................................................................................................................

891
794
178
669
1,131

531
548
147
664
1,032

493
585
172
734
991

Mining:
Iron and ferroalloy ores mining ...................................................................................................................
Copper ore mining .........................................................................................................................................
Other nonferrous ore mining .........................................................................................................................
Coal mining .....................................................................................................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas ...............................................................................................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying .........................................................................................................
Chemical and fertilize r m ineral m in in g .........................................................................................................
O il and gas well drilling and exploration ...................................................................................................

28
28
26
145
164
97
19
127

26
35
29
233
195
97
22
230

Construction:
New residential building construction .........................................................................................................
New nonresidential building construction ...................................................................................................
New public u tility construction .....................................................................................................................
New highway co n stru ctio n .............................................................................................................................
A ll other new construction ...........................................................................................................................
Maintenance and repair co nstru ctio n ...........................................................................................................

1,185
964
436
272
205
886

1,302
1,070
584
213
254
1,249

Manufacturing:
Durables
Ordnance ........................................................................................................................................................
Complete guided m issile s...............................................................................................................................
L o g g in g ........................................................................................ ....................................................................
Sawmilis and planing m ills .............................................................................................................................
M illwork, plywood, and other wood products ...........................................................................................
Wooden containers ........................................................................................................................................
Household fu rn itu re .........................................................................................................................................
Other furniture and fix tu re s ..........................................................................................................................
G la s s ................................................................................................................................................................
Cement and concrete products ...................................................................................................................

188
150
125
253
252
37
336
143
175
221

74
81
128
241
331
21
374
146
192
235

S tructural clay p ro d u cts.................................................................................................................................
Pottery and related products ......................................................................................................................
Miscellaneous stone and clay products .....................................................................................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel p ro d u cts.....................................................................................................
Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s .........................................................................................................
Primary copper and copper products ............................................................ ............................................
Prim ary aluminum and aluminum products .................................................................................................
Other primary nonferrous products .............................................................................................................
Metal containers ............................................................................................................................................
Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures ...................................................................................................

69
43
137
636
300
145
144
93
80
82

Fabricated structural metal ..........................................................................................................................
Screw machine products ..............................................................................................................................
Metal stam pings..............................................................................................................................................
Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware .................................................................................................
O ther fabricated metal p ro d u cts..................................................................................................................
Engines, turbines, and generators ...............................................................................................................
Farm m achinery..............................................................................................................................................
Construction, mining, and o ilfie ld machinery .............................................................................................
M aterial handling equipment ........................................................................................................................
Metal working m achines.................................................................................................................................

412
117
252
163
302
110
143
192
89
342

Special industry machinery ..........................................................................................................................
General industrial machinery ........................................................................................................................
Machine shop products ................................................................................................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment ...........................................................................
Typewriters and other o ffice equipment .....................................................................
Service industry machines ............................................................................................................................
E lectric transmission equipment ......................................................................
E lectrical industrial apparatus ......................................................................................................................
Household a pp lia n ces....................................................................................................................................
E lectric lighting and w iring ..........................................................................................................................

nign em ploym ent alternative

1990

1900

1985

101,108

86,179

97,660

106,339

457
573
169
747
976

427
494
155
687
871

495
587
173
727
992

456
571
171
748
975

424
491
158
689
871

36
47
31
268
248
102
15
255

32
53
31
311
234
103
14
277

27
57
29
354
210
97
14
285

36
47
32
269
250
103
15
256

33
55
31
318
239
106
15
285

28
60
30
370
217
103
14
300

1,428
1,217
639
229
227
1,347

1,618
1,316
722
224
230
1,447

1,607
1,419
809
211
220
1,482

1,433
1,218
638
230
228
1,360

1,661
1,351
739
232
235
1,496

1,681
1,505
852
225
230
1,572

75
95
120
226
337
18
413
165'
205
252

71
91
119
218
397
16
466
175
221
269

67
66
117
199
438
14
502
184
225
267

76
97
120
227
339
19
415
165
206
253

73
95
122
224
410
17
483
179
228
278

70
90
121
209
463
15
530
195
238
283

56
41
138
544
290
140
145
87
74
75

45
42
145
593
323
165
153
97
82
76

43a
43
154
590
348
176
166
103
88
80

38
42
156
553
355
177
171
102
89
77

46
42
146
596
324
166
154
98
83
77

44
44
160
610
360
182
172
106
91
83

40
44
165
586
378
188
181
108
94
82

468
113
242
177
323

628
124
297
220
374

147
252
97
329

541
119
279
199
344
130
165
247
116
371

177
296
129
414

693
122
301
229
387
145
182
334
138
436

543
120
280
200
345
131
164
247
115
371

649
128
307
227
386
145
182
305
133
427

738
129
319
243
409
154
193
356
146
462

199
282
245
202
49
136
205
213
179
201

179
298
298
279
43
174
205
224
178
207

206
333
320
322
49
207
236
247
193
246

222
370
357
400
48
239
260
275
210
280

230
391
380
479
45
261
276
291
215
301

206
333
322
322
50
208
237
248
193
247

230
382
368
413
50
246
269
284
216
290

245
414
401
509
48
277
292
308
226
319

Radio and television receiving sets ............................................................................................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus ..........................................................................................................
Radio and communication equipment ........................................................................................................
E lectronic com ponents...................................................................................................................................
Miscellaneous electrical p ro d u c ts ................................................................................................................
M otor vehicles ................................................................................................................................................
A ircraft ............................................................................................................................................................
Ship and boat building and re p a ir........................... ...................................................................................
Railroad e quipm ent........................................................................................................................................
M otorcycles, bicycles, and parts ................................................................................................................

153
132
390
381
124
876
852
186
47
18

134
145
294
391
163
893
479
231
46
26

135
184
322
463
166
1,006
571
247
55
35

140
204
317
541
177
1,108
554
255
61
37

137
219
307
607
177
1,156
519
261
65
39

136
184
324
464
167
1,014
573
249
55
35

143
210
328
558
182
1,146
574
265
63
38

141
231
321
640
187
1,227
547
276
68
40

Other transportation equipment ..................................................................................................................
S cientific and controlling instrum ents..........................................................................................................
M edical and dental instruments ..................................................................................................................
O ptical and ophthalm ic equipm ent...............................................................................................................
Photographic equipment and s u p p lie s.........................................................................................................
Watches, clocks, and clock operated d e vice s......................................................................................
Jewelry and silverware ..................................................................................................................................
M usical instruments and sporting g o o d s.....................................................................................................
O ther miscellaneous manufactured products .............................................................................................

72
197
74
52
107
37
79
148
225

137
185
116
70
130
32
83
146
209

152
196
129
89
151
35
92
173
229

232
203
154
92
171
38
98
191
228

307
201
176
91
186
39
99
199
215

153
196
129
90
151
35
92
173
231

239
210
159
95
177
39
101
197
236

326
213
189
96
198
40
104
209
228




30

115

141

1990

Table 4. Continued—Employment by Industry, actual and projected, selected years 1968-90
[In thousands]
A ctual
Industry

■»« -*- ------- ■- H im . i l l ..
n i g n w n p t u y i i w it i a iW n a u Y V

Base case

1980

1985

366
142
370
156
213
34
87
81
165
181

371
172
343
148
241
36
90
86
146
172

394
154
371
158
235
36
91
84
161
185

385
149
389
164
223
36
91
84
174
191

66
545
88
86
315
1,291
223
513
253
486

60
541
104
87
337
1,330
241
532
270
492

71
544
75
83
302
1,226
207
492
234
465

68
563
91
89
326
1,334
230
530
261
500

63
572
110
92
356
1,403
255
565
286
519

235
567
341
58
105
96
125
177
131
77

242
577
366
58
113
103
150
197
148
87

246
577
398
58
120
110
184
224
168
93

236
570
342
58
105
96
125
177
131
78

250
596
379
60
117
104
155
203
153
90

260
615
423
62
127
114
195
241
178
99

209
124
175
380
25
241

190
129
184
398
22
243

184
141
192
431
19
228

180
153
197
471
16
203

191
130
185
400
22
244

187
145
198
442
20
233

184
162
209
494
17
208

662
311
1,179
241
329
19
99

539
297
1,290
198
380
17
155

557
304
1,446
198
397
17
178

514
316
1,552
193
464
17
213

450
323
1,587
192
511
17
252

559
306
1,452
199
399
17
179

532
325
1,600
196
480
18
220

479
340
1,675
196
543
19
268

Communications:
Communications, except radio and television...................................................................................
Radio and television broadcasting ...................................................................................................

893
124

1,041
162

1,126
178

1,173
217

1,221
252

1,132
179

1,178
225

1,260
267

Public utilities:
Electric utilities ................................................................................................................................
Gas utilities
................................................................................................................................
Water and sanitary services ............................................................................................................

371
219
74

434
214
111

477
209
123

515
196
145

522
168
163

477
210
123

529
202
149

551
178
170

4,118
12,211

4,991
15,917

5,511
17,840

5,834
20,073

5,888
21,482

5,522
17,881

6,004
20,632

6,200
22,520

916
605
1,367
784

1,342
790
1,687
1,069

1,426
895
1,811
1,181

1,764
1,048
2,004
1,297

2,054
1,167
2,117
1,358

1,434
900
1,812
1,182

1,829
1,084
2,062
1,331

2,200
1,237
2,227
1,425

Services:
Hotels and lodging places................................................................................................................
Personal and repair services............................................................................................................
Barber and beauty shops ..............................................................................................................
Miscellaneous business services.......................................................................................................
Advertising
.......................................................................................................................
Miscellaneous professional services .................................................................................................
Automobile repair
.......................................................................................................................
Motion pictures
.......................................................................................................................
Amusements and recreation services.............................................................................................. .
Doctors' and dentists' services........................................................................................................

819
1,319
429
1,428
192
994
764
196
516
746

1,185
1,231
389
2,341
215
1,548
935
206
700
1,275

1,326
1,263
429
2,788
216
1,646
1,028
223
822
1,411

1,565
1,270
460
3,585
221
1,932
1,099
236
932
1,656

1,747
1,244
475
4,385
219
2,174
1,137
239
1,010
1,882

1,332
1,268
431
2,803
216
1,651
1,032
225
822
1,417

1,618
1,292
470
3,705
226
1,982
1,122
248
952
1,695

1,854
1,281
493
4,663
228
2,283
1,178
258
1,050
1,968

Hospitals
.......................................................................................................
Other medical services
..................................................................................................
Educational services
.....................................................................................................................
Nonprofit organizations ....................................................................................................................
Forestry and fishery products ...........................................................................................................
Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services .......................................................................................
Private households ...........................................................................................................................

1,751
506
1,176
1,704
30
178
2,437

2,604
1,254
1,430
2,064
41
256
1,913

2,935
1,603
1,538
2,301
41
290
1,602

3,642
2,228
1,709
2,543
45
334
1,447

4,307
3,055
1,785
2,673
46
366
1,307

2,950
1,612
1,556
2,309
40
292
1,602

3,785
2,283
1,769
2,617
44
345
1,446

4,634
3,191
1,890
2,810
45
387
1,306

1969

1977

1980

1985

Nondurable
Meat products ..................................................................................................................................
Dairy products ..................................................................................................................................
Canned and frozen foods ................................................................................................................
Grain m products ...........................................................................................................................
ill
Bakery products ..............................................................................................................................
Sugar ................................................................................................................................................
Confectionery products ....................................................................................................................
Alcoholic beverages .........................................................................................................................
Soft drinks and flavorings ................................................................................................................
Miscellaneous food products.............................................................................................................

337
264
280
132
285
37
89
103
138
151

367
199
289
147
246
30
84
91
149
155

369
171
341
148
240
35
89
86
146
171

382
150
360
153
228
35
89
82
156
180

Tobacco manufacturing ....................................................................................................................
Fabrics, yam, and thread m .................................................................................................. .
ills
Floor coverings ................................................................................................................................
Miscellaneous textile goods...............................................................................................................
Hosiery and knit goods
................................................................................................ .
Apparel
................................................................................................................................
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products .........................................................................................
Paper products ................................................................................................................................
Paperboard ...................................................................................................................................
Newspaper printing and publishing .................................................................................................

85
617
51
84
247
1,234
184
471
222
370

70
582
64
71
270
1,112
189
483
217
408

71
542
75
82
301
1,222
206
490
233
464

Periodicals and book printing, publishing .........................................................................................
Miscellaneous printing and publishing ..............................................................................................
Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals.......................................................................................
Agricultural chemicals .....................................................................................................................
Miscellaneous chemical products .....................................................................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber..............................................................................................
Synthetic fibers
............................................................................................................................
Cleaning and toilet preparations.......................................................................................................
Paints and allied products................................................................................................................

217
502
316
57
123
106
110
137
117
70

213
520
346
57
86
103
101
175
125
70

Petroleum refining and related products .........................................................................................
Tires and inner tubes.......................................................................................................................
Miscellaneous rubber products .......................................................................................................
Plastic products ..............................................................................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather..............................................................................................
Footwear and other leather products ..............................................................................................

187
115
185
265
34
324

Transportation:
Railroad transportation
..................................................................................................................
Local transit, intercity buses ............................................................................................................
Truck transportation
...................................................................................................................
Water transportation
............................................................................................................
Air transportation
..
............................................................................................
Pipeline transportation .....................................................................................................................
...................................................................................................
Transportation services ......

Trade:
Wholesale trade
.....................................................................................................................
Retail trade
..................................................................................................................................
Finance, insurance, and real estate:
Banking ...........................................................................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers..............................................................................................
Insurance
....................................................................................................................................
Real estate
.....................................................................................................................




31

1990

1990

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment

Technology affects growth. Technological change
also can have a pronounced impact on output
growth. Some of the most rapidly growing indus­
tries, synthetic fibers and electronic components,
reflect this. It is assumed that these products will
be used more and more in the manufacture of final
goods through the coming decade. Industries
showing little or no output growth during 1980-90
because of changes in the production process
include wooden containers, structural clay prod­
ucts, and leather tanning and industrial leather.
Employment by industry

Table 4 shows actual and projected employment
by industry over the period 1968-90. Employment
trends at the industry level are derived from
industry output trends, but the two are not strictly
parallel. The differences are related to estimates of
labor productivity and of average weekly hours,
which combine with industry output projections to
yield the projections of employment by industry.
For example, during cyclical swings, output in
manufacturing falls and rises more markedly than
employment because labor productivity and the
average workweek absorb some of the impact.
However, employment in retail trade and other
services sectors demonstrates little sensitivity to
business cycle peaks and troughs.
Table 5 and chart 2 present the projection of
employment by major economic sector. Rapid
growth is expected for most sectors during 1977-80
compared with 1973-77. After 1980, however, the
projections of industry employment growth are
generally below historical rates, because of the
anticipated labor force slowdown.

Distribution virtually unchanged. In terms of shares
of total jobs, most of the major sectors continue
past trends. Agriculture, manufacturing, transpor­
tation, wholesale trade, and private households are
projected to hold smaller shares of total employ­
ment. Other services, retail trade, finance, insur­
ance, and real estate will hold larger shares; the
remaining sectors are projected to hold steady
shares.
One sector projected to diverge from historical
trends is the government sector. Historically,
civilian government employment has risen consist­
ently as a proportion of total civilian employment,
reaching 16.2 percent in 1977. (See table 6.) The
increase in the past has come in State and local
government jobs, with the Federal sector holding a
fairly steady 3-percent share. In the 1980’s,
declining school enrollment will more than com­
pensate for factors which might cause educational
employment to grow, such as smaller class size,
expanded special educational programs, and rising
staff-teacher ratios. In addition to declining school
enrollment, an apparent desire by voters for
smaller governments will cause the number of
public sector jobs to fall to 14.8 percent of all
civilian jobs by 1990.
Other State and local functions with projected
slowdowns in employment growth include high­
way construction and maintenance, police services,
and public utilities. Employment in public health
care industries, however, will rise as a share of total
jobs, offsetting the slow growth of some of the
other functions. Although the rate of growth of
government jobs will be slower during 1977-90
than the rate for private jobs, the State and local

Table 5. Total employment by major sector, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90
[Level in thousands]
Avsngt annual ra il of changa

Level
Industry itd o f
Total civilian employment' ...........
Government2 .........................................
Total p riv a te .........................................
A griculture ......................................
Nonagriculture .................................
M ining ...........................................
Contract co n stru ctio n .................
M anufacturing .............................
Durable g o o d s .........................
Nondurable g o o d s...................
Transportation, communication,
and public u tilitie s .....................
Transportation .........................
Communication .......................
Public u tiiitie e ...........................
Wholesale and retail trade . . . .
W holesale................................
R e ta il........................................
Finance, insurance, and
real estate .................................
O ther services .............................
Private households .....................

1959

1968

1973

1977

67,563
8,083
59,480
5,491
53,989
765
3,680
17,001
9,577
7,424

79,836
11,846
67,990
3,663
64,327
634
3,948
20,038
11,792
8,246

88,408
13,738
74,670
3,206
71,464
677
4,766
20,352
12,029
8,323

4,241
2,743
874
624
13,758
3,527
10,231

4,521
2,840
1,017
664
16,329
4,118
12,211

2,882
9,088
2,574

3,672
12,748
2,437

1990

199$

1990

93,715
15,189
78,526
2,922
75,604
867
4,672
19,844
11,671
8,173

101,761
15,868
85,893
2,974
82,919
1,002
5,087
21,492
12,929
8,563

111,851
16,865
94,986
2,922
92,064
1,055
5,556
23,014
14,098
8,915

118,615
17,507
101,108
2,634
98,474
1,072
5,748
23,882
14,692
9,189

1.9
4.3
1.5
-4.4
2.0
-2.1
.8
1.8
2.3
1.2

2.1
3.0
1.9
-2.6
2.1
1.3
3.8
.3
.4

4,867
2,919
1,207
741
19,026
4,688
14,338

4,838
2,876
1,203
759
20,908
4,991
15,917

5,212
3,098
1,304
809
23,351
5,511
17,840

5,516
3,270
1,391
856
25,907
5,834
20,073

5,658
3,332
1,473
853
27,370
5,888
21,482

.7
.4
1.7
.7
1.9
1.7
2.0

4,433
15,254
2,089

4,888
17,674
1,913

5,312
19,861
1,602

6,113
23,457
1,447

6,695
26,742
1,307

2.7
3.8
-.6

'Employment Is on a Jobs concept and includes wage and salary workers, the self-employed.
unpaid family workers, and private household workers.




19S9-98

1999-73

1973-77

1977-90

1999-95

2

1.5
2.5
1.3
-2.3
1.4
6.4
-.5
-.6
-.8
-.5

2.8
1.5
3.0
.6
3.1
5.0
2.9
2.7
3.5
1.6

1.9
1.2
2.0
-.4
2.1
1.0
1.8
1.4
1.7
.8

1.2
.8
1.3
-2.1
1.4
.3
.7
.7
.8
.6

1.5
.6
3.5
2.2
3.1
2.6
3.3

-.1
-.4
-.1
.6
2.4
1.6
2.6

2.5
2.5
2.7
2.2
3.8
3.4
3.9

1.1
1.1
1.3
1.1
2.1
1.1
2.4

.5
.4
1.2
-.1
1.1
.2
1.4

3.8
3.7
-3.0

2.5
3.7
-2.2

2.8
4.0
-5.7

2.8
3.4
-2.0

1.8
2.7
-2.0

1995-90

’Government employment used in this table is based on BLS concepts. The figure includes
government enterprise employment.

32

sector (not including education) will rank among
the top 10 job-gaining industries, because of its
relative size.
Rapidly growing industries. The service sector is
projected to be the fastest growing segment of the
economy, continuing its historical increase as a
share of total jobs. In 1959, jobs in service
industries accounted for 13.5 percent of total jobs.
In 1977, the share was 18.9 percent; by 1990, it is
projected to reach 22.5 percent. Two groups of
services—private medical care services and miscel­
laneous business services—have been and will
continue to be primarily responsible for this gain.
As shown in the following tabulation, these service
industries are among the leaders in projected
average annual employment growth during 1977—
90:

In dustries

A vera g e annual
ra te o f j o b growth,
1 9 7 7 -9 0

Other medical services .................................
Other transportation equipment ________
Miscellaneous business services ..................
Synthetic fibers ................................................
Computers and peripheral equipment
Hospitals ...........................................................
Floor coverings ................................................
Transportation services .................................
Copper ore mining ........................................
Radio and television broadcasting . .

Industries

Retail trade ..........................................................
State and local government
other than education .......................................
Miscellaneous business services ......................
Other medical services .....................................
Hospitals ...............................................................
Wholesale trade ..................................................
Banking .................................................................
Miscellaneous professional services ..............
Nonprofit organizations ...................................
Doctors’ and dentists’ services ......................

E m ploym ent
gain, 1 9 7 7 -9 0
(thousands)

5,565
2,148
2,044
1,801
1,703
897
712
626
609
607

Of the more than 5 million new retail trade jobs,
most will be in eating and drinking establishments,
general merchandise stores, and food stores.
Employment growth for this sector reflects not
only demand factors but supply factors as well,
particularly an extensive use of part-time help. The
average workweek for all retail trade establish­
ments declined almost 7 hours, from 39.9 hours per
week in 1959 to 33.1 hours per week in 1977; by
1990, it is projected to decline even further, to an
average of 30.3 hours per week. At the same time,
retail establishments will continue to introduce
many cost-saving technologies, such as computer­
ized checkout systems and standardized menus,
somewhat dampening the jobs forecast.

7.1
6.4
4.9
4.7
4.2
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.5

Private medical care services include hospitals,
offices of physicians and dentists, and such other
medical services as medical laboratories, nursing
services, blood banks, and nursing and convales­
cent homes. Between 1959 and 1977, employment
in these industries grew by 3.3 million jobs, an
average annual rate of 6.0 percent. Job growth in
the medical sector is projected to taper off
somewhat from this pace but to continue as one of
the most rapidly growing areas of the economy
through the next decade, partially the result of an
aging population. Over 4.1 million new jobs will be
added in private medical care services between
1977 and 1990, an average yearly gain of 4.6
percent.
Miscellaneous business services, which include
janitorial, photocopying, temporary office help,
equipment rental and leasing, and other related
services, also will continue to be increasingly
important in the totdl job-growth picture. Employ­
ment in this industry more than tripled between
1959 and 1977, rising 6.6 percent a year to total 2.3
million jobs by 1977. Employment growth is
projected to average 4.9 percent a year through



1990, compared to the 1.8-percent annual growth
rate for total civilian employment 1977-90.
In terms of the absolute number of new jobs
created between 1977-90, retail trade ranks num­
ber one, primarily because of the size of the
industry:

Slowdowns or declines expected. Several industries
are projected to have relatively small employment
gains compared with past trends. Employment in
the steel industry, for example, is projected to rise
to 593,000 jobs in 1980, as the economy fully
recovers from recession, but then will remain
constant through 1985 and decline to 553,000 by
1990. Part of the reason behind the leveling off is a
projected continued substitution of aluminum and
plastic for steel in the production of new cars, as
energy demands continue to require lighter weight
vehicles. In addition, steel users are expected to
continue shifting their purchases from domestic to
foreign suppliers.
Employment growth in the motor vehicle indus­
try also is projected to slow somewhat. The
underlying causes of this slowdown are a rise in
productivity in the auto industry and the change in
the age composition of the population. During the
33

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment

Chart 2. Total employment by major sector, selected years 1959-77, and projections to 1980,
1985, and 1990
Percent distribution

Percent

_ Private
households

100

90
— Other services

80
Finance,
— insurance, and
real estate

70

— Trade

60

50

-

40

-

30

-

Transportation,
— communication,
and public utilities

— Manufacturing

•Construction

20

•M ining
‘ Agriculture

10

“

■Government

1959

1968

1973

1977

1980

1960’s and 1970’s, the baby-boom generation
entered the marketplace and created a large, new
demand for automobiles. During the next decade,
this cohort will reach middle age; the demand for
new cars will still be strong, but the unusual surge
experienced in the 1960’s will not be repeated.
Somewhat offsetting these trends, however, is the
expectation that the devalued dollar and the
increasing competitiveness of domestic manufac­
turers in the small-car market will halt the
historical rise of imports as a share of new cars sold



34

1985

1990

in the United States.
Communications is another industry projected
to experience little employment growth during
1977-90. Although output growth in this sector is
projected to outrank growth in all other industries,
technological innovations, resulting in top produc­
tivity gains, will offset output growth. As a
consequence, telephone and telegraph employment
is projected to rise only modestly through 1990.
Several industries are projected to experience
actual job declines over the next decade.

Industries

Average annual
rate o f jo b decline,
1977-90

C h em ical and fertilizer
m ineral m ining ....................................................
Leather tann in g and
industrial leather ................................................
Structural clay products ...................................
Private h ou seh old s ................................................
W o o d en containers ..............................................
D airy products (n on m anu factured) .
G a s utilities ............................................................
D airy and poultry products ..........................
Saw m ills and p lan in g m ills .............................
R ailroad transportation .....................................

Table 6. Changing share of government employment,
actual and projected, selected years 1959-90
[In percent]
Components

-2.6
-1.8
-1.7
-1.4
-1.4

1973

1977

100.0

100.0

100.0

12.0
3.3
2.3
1.0
8.7
4.0
4.2
.5
88.0

14.8
3.4
2.3
1.1
11.4
5.9
4.9
.6
85.2

15.5
3.0
2.0
1.0
12.5
6.5
5.4
.6
84.5

16.2
2.9
2.0
.9
13.3
6.9
5.7
.7
83.8

1990

1985

1990

100.0 100.0

100.0

15.6
2.7
1.9
.9
12.9
6.4
5.7
.8
84.4

15.1
2.6
1.8
.8
12.5
5.9
5.7
.9
84.9

14.8
2.5
1.7
.8
12.3
5.4
5.9
.9
85.2

'Based on BLS concept.
’Includes the Postal Service, TVA, military post exchanges, and other federally operated services
receiving more than half their revenue from sales.
’Includes local transit, water and sanitary utilities, State liquor stores, municipal parking facilities,
and other State or local government-operated services receiving more than half their revenue from
sales.

The largest cutback is expected to occur in the
private household sector, reflecting a continued
drop in the supply of domestic workers. Demand
factors play the primary role in job reductions in
some food products industries, tobacco manufac­
turing, gas utilities, and ordnance manufacturing;
changes in the manufacturing process will cause
job declines in the wooden container and leather
tanning industries.
Farm employment is expected to continue to
decline through the next decade; however, the
drop will not be as rapid as in the past few
decades. In the past, productivity gains in agricul­
ture have been very large; between 1959 and 1977,
output per hour of all persons in the farm sector
rose almost 5 percent a year, compared with about
2 or 3 percent for the nonfarm economy before
1973 and about 1 percent a year since then. The
rapid pace of productivity gains in farming is
already beginning to slow, however, and the
continued slowdown in the 1980’s will moderate
the projected rate of decline in farm jobs.

For the private economy as a whole, the
projected increase in output was found to be most
responsible for the 22.6-million increase in employ­
ment between 1977 and 1990. The increase in
output more than offsets the decline that would
have taken place as a result of the decline in unit
labor requirements alone. Changes in the average
workweek were shown to have very little effect on
the employment change. Most of the 149 industries
follow this general pattern—positive effect of
increases in demand and negative effect of declines
in unit labor requirements (or increases in produc­
tivity)—but the relative importance of the changes
in each factor result in differential industry
employment growth.
High employment alternative

An alternative set of projections was developed
which allows for much higher levels of employ­
ment in the 1980’s. The alternate case assumes a
higher rate of growth for the labor force than does
the base case and also assumes that the unemploy­
ment rate will be lower. The result of these two
assumptions is that total civilian employment in
the alternate case will be more than 7 million
higher than the base case in 1990. In the following
tabulation, the major differences in assumptions
between the two sets of projections are summa­
rized (labor force data in thousands):

Output the main factor in job forecast

What is the relative importance of output versus
productivity in the projection of employment? To
answer this question, estimates of 1990 employ­
ment were prepared that isolate the effects of
projected output, projected unit labor require­
ments, and projected average weekly hours on
employment by industry. For the effect of output
alone, productivity and average weekly hours were
held at their 1977 levels, and projected levels were
used only for output to compute 1990 employment.
Comparing this forecast with the actual forecast
thus measures the effect of output changes alone.
For the effect of productivity projections, employ­
ment was projected holding output and average
hours at their 1977 levels; for the effect of the
workweek forecast, output and productivity were
held constant.



1998

100.0

Government1 .............................................
Federal (civilia n ) .................................
General government . . .
Enterprises2 .....................................
State and local ...................................
Education .........................................
Noneducation general government
Enterprises’ .....................................
P riv a te .......................................................

-3.2
-2.9
-2.9
-2.8

1959

Total .............................................................

-3.7

Labor force
1980:
Base ................................................
A ltern ate ......................................
1985:
B a s e ......................................
A ltern ate ......................................
1990:
Base ................................................
A lternate ......................................

35

Unemployment
rate

106,099
107,554

5.5
5.5

115,041
119,095

4.7
4.0

121,456
127,692

4.5
4.0

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW April 1979 • Industry Output and Employment

1985, and 3.6 percent higher in 1990. Output at the
industry level in the alternate case generally
mirrors this pattern, although industries that are
most dependent on State and local government
demand will have even greater output in the
alternate case than the average for all industries.
Examples where 1990 output in the high employ­
ment alternative is more than 6 percent larger than
in the base forecast are other medical services,
highway construction, other nonbuilding construc­
tion, drugs, hospitals, maintenance and repair
construction, nonresidential building construction,
and medical and dental instruments.
Employment in the alternate case is also higher
than in the base case in most industries. As
mentioned earlier in this article, at first, most of the
additional jobs will be in State and local govern­
ment, but in 1990 the private sector job level is 5.2
million higher than in the base case. Industries
gaining more than the average include drugs,
h o sp itals, an d ban k in g ; sectors relatively
unaffected by the changed assumptions in the
alternate case are private households, farms, and
farm services.
□

The lower unemployment rate is assumed to be
achieved initially through increased Federal grants
to State and local governments. These grants
would be used to hire more workers in State and
local government functions other than education,
principally in health, highways, parks and recre­
ation, and natural resources.
The increased demand generated by the addi­
tional hirings then would stimulate the rest of the
economy. Contributing to the higher employment
growth in the private sector during 1980-90 is the
assumption that productivity gains will be some­
what slower in the alternate case than in the base
case, the result of more inexperienced workers
entering the labor force. By 1985, it is assumed that
a majority of the extra jobs in the alternate case
compared to the base case will be in the private
sector.
The impact of these assumptions is to raise the
output and employment projections of virtually
every industry. (See table 4.) Total private GNP in
1980 is 0.5 percent higher in the alternate case
compared to the base case, 2.0 percent higher in

■FOOTNOTES3 Ronald E. Kutscher, Jerome A. Mark, and John R. Norsworthy,
“The productivity slowdown and the outlook to 1985,” Monthly Labor
Review, May 1977, pp. 3-8.

1 The first article (Paul O. Flaim and Howard N Fullerton, Jr.,
“Labor force projections to 1990: three possible paths,” Monthly
Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 25-35) reported on labor force
projections. The second (Norman C. Saunders, “The U.S. economy in
1990: two projections for growth,” Monthly Labor Review, December
1978, pp. 36-46) presented the macroeconomic forecast and the
underlying assumptions upon which the industry projections rest. The
third (Arthur Andreassen, “Changing patterns o f demand: BLS
projections to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1978, pp. 47 55) described projected changes in demand by private consumers,
government, investors, and the foreign sector.
2 This projection is the intermediate growth forecast o f the labor
force prepared by the BLS. Two alternate forecasts o f the labor force
were also prepared—a high-growth case and a low-growth case. For
more details on the three labor force projections, see Flaim and
Fullerton, “Labor force projections.”




4 The energy projections included in this study are based on the
Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Energy Model (version o f March 1977).
The model was solved with BLS macroeconomic and DRI energy
assumptions. The resulting demand figures for different fuels were
used to develop target output and import levels for the energy
industries. The energy coefficients o f the input-output table were
projected independently, based primarily on the projected relative
fuel prices implicit in the energy output projections.
5 For a detailed description o f how the factors determine the
projections o f industry output, see Richard P. Oliver, Methodology:
Bureau o f Labor Statistics Projections o f Employment to 1990, a BLS
report to be published later this year.

36

Appendix. Supplementary Tables
Table A-1. Gross domestic output by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90
(In millions of 1972 dollars)

Indus t r y
Total p r i v a t e

1959

1968

1973

1977
/

1980

1985

1990

......................................

1,2 30,688

1,7 88,200

2,152,478

2 , 3 1 7,860

2,625,434

3, 160,721

3 , 7 40,024

Agriculture•
D a i r y a n d p o u l t r y p r o d u c t s ......................
M e a t a n i m a l s and l i v e stock ......................
C o t t o n ............................ ..................
Food a n d f e e d grains .............................
O t h e r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s .....................

12,343
24,233
2,520
12,067
11,688

11,962
29,641
1,765
15,686
14,759

12,435
34, 098
2,118
19,832
18,089

15,002
37,798
3, 122
23,950
22,676

13,237
38,366
3,476
25, 186
20,711

14,043
42,998
3,921
29,323
23, 3 3 8

16,023
45,290
4,379
32,877
25,412

Mi ni ng:
Iron a n d f e r r o a l l o y or es m i n i n g ................
C o p p e r ore m i n i n g .................................
O t h e r n o n f e r r o u s or e m i n i n g .....................
Coal m i n i n g ........... .............................
C r u d e p e t r o l e u m and natur al ga s ................
S t o n e a n d c l a y m i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g ...........
C h e m i c a l a n d f e r t i l i z e r miner al m i n i n g .......

76 1
751
696
4,256
11,981
2,0 94
503

1,311
1, 170
662
5, 173
16,445
2,721
627

1,500
1,665
709
5,342
17,38 1
3,216
820

1, 179
967
478
6,844
15,301
3,481
1,443

2, 148
1,729
7 11
7,646
18,550
3,899
1,025

2,291
2,0 17
757
9,867
19,001
4,495
1,220

2,358
2,291
798
12, 199
19,033
5,023
1,441

C o n s tructi o n ■
New r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g co n s t r u c t i o n .........
New n o n r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n .....
New p u b l i c u t i l i t y c o n s t r u c t i o n ................
New h i g h w a y c o n s t r u c t i o n ........................
All o t h e r n e w c o n s t r u c t i o n ................... | .
.
Oil and g a s well d r i l l i n g and e x p l o r a t i o n ....
M a i n t e n a n c e a n d re pair co n s t r u c t i o n ...........

36,6 43
22,3 37
9,600
9,096
7,192
3,4 75
24, 762

39,42 9
38, 095
16,818
12,012
7,456
3,0 09
33,070

52,615
37,031
17,874
9,540
7,3 33
2,740
33,27 4

41,979
30,039
18,152
6,96 1
8,029
3,852
34,547

50,802
36,128
19,067
8,343
7,588
4,084
37,300

66,977
38,333
21,464
8,337
8,4 16
4,740
40, 2 6 3

70,6 39
44,224
25,8 99
8,348
8,870
5,398
42,559

Manufacturing•
Durables:
O r d n a n c e ............................................
C o m p l e t e g u i d e d m i s s i l e s ........................
L o g g i n g .............................................
S a w m i l l s a n d p l a n i n g m i l l s ......................
M i l l w o r k , ply woo d, an d oth er wood p r o d u c t s ...
W o o d e n c o n t a i n e r s .................................
H o u s e h o l d f u r n i t u r e ..............................
O t h e r f u r n i t u r e and f i x t u r e s ...................
G l a s s ................................................
C e m e n t a n d c o n c r e t e pr o d u c t s ...................
S t r u c t u r a l clay p r o d u c t s ........................
P o t t e r y a n d rela t e d p r o d u c t s ....................
Mi s c e l l a n e o u s stone and cla y pr o d u c t s .........
Bl a s t f u r n a c e s and bas i c steel p r o d u c t s ......
Iron a n d ste el f o u n d r i e s an d fo r g i n g s .........
P r i m a r y c o p p e r and cop p e r pr o d u c t s ............
P r i m a r y a l u m i n u m and a l u m i n u m p r o d u c t s .......
O t h e r p r i m a r y n o n f e r r o u s p r o d u c t s ..... . .......
'
Me t a l c o n t a i n e r s ..................................
H e a t i n g a p p a r a t u s and p l u m b i n g f i x t u r e s ......
F a b r i c a t e d s t r u ctural met al .....................
S c r e w m a c h i n e p r o d u c t s ...........................
M e t a l s t a m p i n g s ...................................
Cutlery, h a n d tools, a n d ge ner al h a r d w a r e .....

3,3 22
4,072
3,43 8
6,47 8
4,8 06
566
4,831
2,066
3,50 1
6, 137
1,10 1
657
3,3 02
24,2 9 9
6,16 1
7,508
4,483
3,78 9
3,2 14
2,090
8,3 7 2
3,06 1
5,551
3,21 9

9,084
5,842
4,968
6,416
7,440
681
6,287
3,456
4,97 1
8,031
1, 173
755
4,447
31,617
8,93 7
10,606
7,8 84
5,890
4,7 79
2,598
13,089
3,7 72
8,8 21
4,777

5,026
2,938
5,452
7,0 63
10,520
444
7,8 45
4,762
6,7 58
10,105
1,240
925
4,971
34, 837
10,337
13,894
10,925
6,0 73
5,6 15
3,2 02
15,335
3,80 1
9,502
5,822

5,050
3,280
7,636
7,50 1
11,926
6 13
7,399
4,386
6,818
10,263
1,422
1,060
5,810
29,250
11,183
12,715
11,150
5,840
5,90 1
2,862
13,209
3,4 19
9,055
6,17 1

5, 137
3,442
6,294
6,595
13,735
427
9,450
5,422
7,872
1 1,456
1, 132
948
5,311
37,764
12,341
15,415
11,982
7,211
6,704
3,464
19,232
3,796
11,096
7,171

5,640
3,651
7,682
7,342
19,378
459
12,035
6,241
9,385
13,678
1,234
1, 132
6,083
40,797
14,430
18,028
14,638
8,2 3 5
8, 121
4,263
24,471
3,947
12,942
8,850

6,090
4,086
8,588
7,472
24,062
482
14,514
7,208
10,944
15,368
1,245
1,284
6,830
42,785
16,630
20,587
17,525
9, 194
9,600
4,841
30,816
4,009
14,861
10,596




Table A -1. Continued—Gross domestic output by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90
(In millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry
Ot h e r f a b r i c a t e d m e t a l p r o d u c t s ................
En gi ne s, t u r bines, a n d g e n e r a t o r s .............
Fa rm m a c h i n e r y .....................................
C o n s t r u c t i o n , m i n ing, a n d o i l f i e l d m a c h i n e r y .
M a t e r i a l h a n d l i n g e q u i p m e n t .....................
Metal w o r k i n g m a c h i n e s ...........................
S p e c i a l i n d u s t r y m a c h i n e r y ......................
G e n e r a l indu s t r i a l m a c h i n e r y ...................
M a c h i n e shop p r o d u c t s ............................
C o m p u t e r s and p e r i p h e r a l equ i p m e n t ............
T y p e w r i t e r s a n d o t h e r o f f i c e e q u i p m e n t .......
S e r v i c e i n d u s t r y m a c h i n e s .......................
E l e c t r i c t r a n s m i s s i o n e q u i p m e n t ................
E l e c t r i c a l i n d u s t r i a l a p p a r a t u s ................
H o u s e h o l d a p p l i a n c e s .............................
E l e c t r i c l i g h t i n g a n d w i r i n g ...................
Ra d i o a n d t e l e v i s i o n r e c e i v i n g sets ...........
T e l e p h o n e a n d t e l e g r a p h a p p a r a t u s .............
Radio a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n e q u i p m e n t .............
E l e c t r o n i c c o m p o n e n t s ............................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s e l e c t r i c a l p r o d u c t s .............
M o t o r v e h i c l e s .....................................
Ai rcr a f t ............................................
Sh i p a n d boa t b u i l d i n g a n d re pair .............
R a i l r o a d e q u i p m e n t ................................
M o t o r c y c l e s , bic y c l e s , a n d pa r t s ...............
O t h e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n e q u i p m e n t .................
S c i e n t i f i c a n d c o n t r o l l i n g inst r u m e n t s .......
M e d i c a l a n d dent a l i n s t r u m e n t s .................
O p t i c a l a n d o p h t h a l m i c e q u i p m e n t ..............
P h o t o g r a p h i c e q u i p m e n t and su p p l i e s ...........
Watch e s , cl ock s, a n d clock o p e r a t e d devi c e s ..
J e w e l r y a n d s i l v e r w a r e ...........................
M u s i c a l i n s t r u m e n t s a n d sp o r t i n g goods .......
Oth e r m i s c e l l a n e o u s m a n u f a c t u r e d pr o d u c t s ....
Nondurables J
M e a t p r o d u c t s ......................................
Dai ry p r o d u c t s .....................................
C a n n e d a n d f r o z e n f o o d s ..........................
Gra i n m i l l p r o d u c t s ...............................
B a k e r y p r o d u c t s ....................................
Sug a r ................................................
C o n f e c t i o n e r y p r o d u c t s ...........................
A l c o h o l i c b e v e r a g e s ...............................
So ft d r i n k s a n d f l a v o r i n g s ......................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s f o o d p r o d u c t s .....................
T o b a c c o m a n u f a c t u r i n g ............................
Fab ri cs , yarn, a n d t h r e a d m i l l s ................
Floo r c o v e r i n g s ....................................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s t e x t i l e g o o d s .....................
H o s i e r y a n d kn it g o o d s ...........................
Apparel ..............................................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s f a b r i c a t e d t e x t i l e p r o d u c t s ....
Pa p e r p r o d u c t s .....................................
P a p e r b o a r d ..........................................
N e w s p a p e r p r i n t i n g a n d p u b l i s h i n g .............
P e r i o d i c a l s a n d book pri nti nq , p u b l i s h i n g ....
M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r i n t i n g and p u b l i s h i n g ........
I n d u s t r i a l i n o r g a n i c a n d orga n i c c h e m i c a l s ...




1959

1968

1973

1977

1980

7, 129
3,279
3,799
5,679
1,726
5,744
4,289
5,860
2,828
2,095
856
2,903
3,219
3,853
3,745
3,527
1,67 1
1,565
4,37 1
2,9 75
2,451
34,200
18,404
2,628
1,584
183
807
3,741
1,055
446
1,506
554
1,496
2,264
3,256

10,983
5,066
5, 176
7,554
3,066
9,262
6,621
8,7 19
4,983
5,3 00
1,442
6,2 07
4,79 9
6,3 76
6,576
5, 169
4,44 2
3,500
12,751
7,36 4
4,023
60,579
27,4 18
3,674
2,560
452
2,477
4, 193
2,218
1,053
4,000
1,100
2,548
3,295
4,865

13,492
7,5 52
6,70 5
9,804
3,722
9,6 17
7,505
10,739
5,84 2
8, 129
1,596
10,134
6,63 8
7, 155
8,982
6,667
6,194
5,3 92
9,867
10,378
5,676
77, 468
19,302
4,730
3,3 22
976
5,521
5,094
3,534
1,460
6,889
1,138
2,576
4,517
6,737

16,127
7,373
6,991
12,238
3,603
9,598
7, 165
11,104
6,939
10,697
1,832
8,218
6,065
6,783
9,258
5,759
6,032
4,387
10,883
10, 159
6,151
80,473
16,334
6,102
2,676
837
4,301
6,198
4,950
2,0 17
7,643
1,235
2,639
4,587
7,392

16,266
8,800
8,547
11,772
5, 125
11,309
8,236
13,075
7,772
14,354
2,283
12,204
7,962
7,938
11,340
7,862
9,347
6,76 1
11,473
15,220
7,324
91,378
21,447
7, 159
3,791
1,472
5,525
6,04 1
4,793
2, 122
9,895
1,491
3,36 1
5,974
8,293

21, 786
14,850
7,784
8,477
7,7 68
2,407
2,664
6,6 89
3,407
9,670
8,607
13,703
757
2, 113
2,747
17,232
2,996
12,456
4,748
5,725
5,404
8,43 3
10,314

29, 4 1 8
15, 140
11,628
11,170
8, 5 5 2
3, 139
3,569
9,707
5,547
12,699
9,37 1
18,389
2, 109
3, 164
5,08 3
23,775
5,00 2
18,225
7,492
7,391
8,38 6
12,529
17,169

30,571
17,260
14,407
13,415
8,902
3,411
4, 179
12,813
7,4 99
13,666
10,483
19,804
3,637
3,515
8,4 67
28,4 67
6,939
23,686
9,272
8,60 9
10,493
17, 149
23,841

34,645
19,865
15,435
17,601
9,352
3,798
4,594
14,171
9,310
13,261
11,098
23,4 26
3, 141
3,361
8,190
30, 155
6,7 93
26,071
9,706
8,484
10,824
16,989
29, 715

36,397
17,534
18,232
16,213
9,133
3,757
4,487
17,383
9,506
16,619
11,039
22,548
4,933
i4,338
11,407
36,497
8,509
28,056
11,172
9,57 1
12,780
18,952
30,67 1

1985

1990

18,891
10,453
10,212
14,847
6, 145
13,690
10,153
15,790
9,092
19, 158
2,578
15,548
9,513
9,812
14,562
9,085
12,047
8,384
12,162
20,838
8,514
1 10,936
24,483
7,816
4,822
1,921
7,750
6,975
5,886
2,506
12,732
2,057
4,390
7,799
10,272

21,564
12,417
12,250
18,229
7,376
16, 152
12,592
18,822
10,605
25,835
2,837
19,434
11,486
12,062
18,010
10,218
15, 162
10,631
13,596
28,7 1 5
9,580
132,423
28,447
9,234
6,088
2,670
9, 145
7,972
7,196
2,930
16,406
2,688
5,567
9,772
12,452

40,896
18,072
21,159
19,065
9,572
4,333
5,006
20,6 42
11,836
19,664
11,691
26,224
7, 176
5,251
14,909
45,375
10,673
33,859
13,675
10 ,#30 /
14,041
20,520
39,7 52

43,036
21,263
23,719
21,746
9,941
4,823
5,445
23,6 55
13,948
22,284
12,242
29,952
9,7 18
6, 128
18,906
54,6 32
13,037
39,977
16,541
11,989
15,430
21,798
50,830

Table A -1. Continued—Gross domestic output by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1959-90
(In millions of 1972 dollars)

Industry

1959

1968

1973

1977

1980

1985

1990

A g r i c u l t u r a l c h e m i c a l s ........................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s chemical p r o d u c t s .............
P l a s t i c m a t e r i a l s and s y n t hetic ru bber .....
S y n t h e t i c f i b e r s ................................
D r u g s ...................... .............. ........
C l e a n i n g a n d toilet p r e p a r a t i o n s ............
P a i n t s a n d a l l i e d p r o ducts ...................
P e t r o l e u m r e f i n i n g and related p r o ducts ....
T i r e s a n d inn er tube s ..........................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s rubber p r o d u c t s ................
P l a s t i c p r o d u c t s ................................
L e a t h e r t a n n i n g and indust ri al le ather .....
F o o t w e a r a n d ot h e r le ath er produ c t s .........

1,599
3,3 02
2,8 72
1,505
3, 166
A , 797
2,673
20, 573
3,360
3, 1A5
2,397
1, A68
A ,8A0

2,7 85
5,221
5,85A
3,760
6,200
8, A28
3,532
30,2 65
A,817
A , 920
7,6 05
1 ,A2A
5, A50

3 , 2A6
5, A89
10,012
5,757
9,7A6
11,278
A, 528
35,752
6,876
5,665
13, 176
1,266
A , 725

A, 156
A ,55 A
15,662
7,255
13,071
12,787
3,757
A 5 ,996
7,622
5,738
18,280
1,333
A , 282

A , 360
6,570
13,2A9
8,959
13,30 A
12,883
5,520
A3,869
8,697
6, A3 1
16,886
1,219
A , 759

5,011
8,26 A
15,750
13,332
17, 138
17,087
6, 99A
A 6 ,3A7
10,888
7,367
20,721
1,233
A , 939

5,573
10,256
18,852
19,355
21,679
22, 1A6
8,593
A 7 ,97A
13,A 9A
8,331
2 5 , 2A 1
1,196
A , 872

T r a n s p o r t a t io n :
R a i l r o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .......................
Local tra nsit, in ter city buses ...............
Tr u c k t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ...........................
W a t e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ...........................
Air t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .............................
P i p e l i n e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .......................
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s .......................

12,376
7,165
19,358
3,8 83
A, 125
768
1, A83

16,359
6,070
25,591
6,23 1
11,759
1,330
1,37 A

18,679
5,787
32,60 3
9 , 3AA
1A ,351
1,702
1 ,86 1

16,259
5,516
32,806
9, A38
16,697
1,786
1,800

21,012
6,811
38, 185
12,658
20,716
2,192
2,582

23,937
7,626
A A ,8A2
15,076
27,691
2, A2 9
2,963

26,821
9,078
5 1,7A3
17,925
36,029
2,6 A2
3 , 65A

Commun ic a t i o n s 5
C o m m u n i c a t i o n , exce pt radio and tele v i s i o n .
Rad i o a n d t e l e v i s i o n b r o a d c a s t i n g ...........

12,036
2,8 9A

22,897
3,6 75

3 A ,AA6
5,290

A 5 ,657
A ,A35

53,522
6, A76

7 A ,0 A 1
8 , 3A9

101,5AA
10,612

Publi c u t i l i t i e s 5
E l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s .............................
G a s u t i l i t i e s ...................................
W a t e r a n d s a n i t a r y se rvices ..................

1A ,082
11,2 1A
3,9 99

2 A , 927
18,367
5,328

3A, 198
20, 192
6,16 1

33,826
18,910
6, A27

A 2 ,A83
11 •7 A6
7,228

56, 135
16,983
8 , 5A3

71,875
16,653
9,9 1A

Trade5
W h o l e s a l e t r a d e .................................
R e t a i 1 t r a d e ...... ..............................

A 7 ,087
99,926

80,325
131,383

96,907
151,365

103,675
162 ,3A6

123,563
18A,729

1A 5 ,6 02
226, 537

168,812
271, 552

Fin an ce , ins ur ance, an d real e s t a t e 5
B a n k i n g ...........................................
C r e d i t a g e n c i e s a n d fina nci al brokers ......
I n s u r a n c e ........................................
O w n e r - o c c u p i e d real est a t e ...................
Real e s t a t e ......................................

1A ,AAA
11,860
2 6 , 0 A5
A 5 ,635
A 9,7 92

20,612
15,239
33, 219
63, 726
77,672

25, 978
11,982
A3,009
80,5 5 8
101,237

29,661
12,725
50, 815
98,921
112, 1 1A

35,518
15,577
53, 1A 0
1 10,692
136,39A

A A ,376
18,171
63,636
136,085
168,913

53,685
20,873
75,281
16 A ,5A6
20A ,777

Serv i c e s 5
H o t e l s a n d l o d g i n g pla c e s .....................
P e r s o n a l a n d repa i r services .................
B a r b e r a n d b e a u t y shops .......................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s b u s i n e s s servi c e s .............
A d v e r t i s i n g ......................................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r o f e s s i o n a l services .........
A u t o m o b i l e r e p a i r ..............................
M o t i o n p i c t u r e s .................................
A m u s e m e n t s a n d r e c r e a t i o n services ..........
Doctors' a n d de nti sts' servi c e s .............
H o s p i t a l s ........................................
O t h e r m e d i c a l s e r v i c e s ........................
E d u c a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s ...........................
N o n p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n s .......................
F o r e s t r y a n d f i s h e r y produ c t s ................
A g r i c u l t u r a l , fo res try, and f i s h e r y se r v i c e s
P r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s ....... ......................

5, 100
12,757
A , 330
1A ,258
17,003
15,993
13,767
5 , 2A 9
5,337
12,A63
8,636
3,576
6,906
9,969
2,690
2,621
6,717

7, 176
1A ,382
A, 165
31, 583
20, 853
22, 191
21,0 26
5,33 3
7,666
19,031
16, A60
7,078
11,226
15,300
2,206
3, A9 1
6,091

9, 109
13,976
3,870
A 2 ,7 1A
2 2 , 50A
28,802
25,702
8, 103
8, 8 3 5
25,7 7 A
25,568
11,077
13,650
17,688
2, A59
3,690
5,252

9, 172
13,302
3,630
51, 272
26,0 69
3 A , 9 12
2 7 , A63
10,A20
10,093
27,261
31,876
13, 133
1A ,620
19,953
3, 153
A , 3A3
A ,A3 1

11,558
1A , 131
3,882
63,677
23,987
35,070
32, 1AA
10,766
10,55A
3 A ,853
3 6 , 0 A7
15,82A
1A,5 18
20,607
3, 17 1
A , 278
3 , 6A3

1A,859
1A,856
A , 067
82, 3 1 5
2 6 , 3A5
A 2 , 150
A0, 136
13, 1A8
12,192
A3,668
A8,803
19,277
16, 163
2 3 , 25A
3,8A9
A , 882
3,289

18,A6 1
15,655
A,262
10 A ,7 A A
2 8 , A90
A 9,596
A 9 ,056
16,086
13,957
5 A ,87 7
65,339
2 3 ,75A
17,230
25,993
A,269
5, A7 9
2,971




Table A-2. Average weekly hours and hours of all persons by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1977-90

H o u r s of all p e r s o n s
(in m i l l ions)

A v e r a g e w e e k l y hours

Industry
1977

1980

1985

1990

1977

1980

1985

1990

36.7

36.5

35.8

35.3

150,011

163,012

177,0 17

185,632

Agri c u l t u r e 1
Da i r y and p o u l t r y p r o d u c t s ......................
N e a t a n i m a l s a n d l i v e s t o c k ......................
Cot t o n ...............................................
Fo od a n d fe e d g r a i n s .............................
O t h e r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s .....................

44.4
44.4
44.3
44.3
44.3

43.0
43.0
43.0
43.0
43.0

41.9
41.9
41.9
41.9
41.9

40.9
40.9
40.9
40.9
40.9

1,225
1,264
339
1,531
2,378

1,101
1,307
384
1,641
2,215

996
1,248
369
1,629
2, 128

908
1,051
329
1,460
1,852

Mi ni ng :
Iron a n d f e r r o a l l o y o r e s m i n i n g ................
C o p p e r ore m i n i n g .................................
Other n o n f e r r o u s ore m i n i n g .....................
Coal m i n i n g .........................................
C r u d e p e t r o l e u m a n d natu r a l gas ................
St o n e and c l a y m i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g ...........
C h e m i c a l a n d f e r t i l i z e r miner al m i n i n g .......

42.2
39.0
4 1.8
41.3
4 1.0
43.2
42.8

43. 3
4 1.0
4 1.0
40. 1
4 1.0
43.6
43.5

43.5
41.0
41.0
40. 1
40.9
43.6
43.5

43.7
41.0
41.1
40.3
41.0
43.6
43.7

57
71
63
500
4 16
218
49

82
101
66
558
529
232
33

73
113
66
648
498
233
33

61
121
62
743
447
220
31

Construction1
Ne w r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n .........
Ne w n o n r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n .....
New p u b l i c u t i l i t y c o n s t r u c t i o n ................
New h i g h w a y c o n s t r u c t i o n ................ ........
All o t h e r new c o n s t r u c t i o n ......................
Oil a n d gas wel l d r i l l i n g and explo r a t i o n ....
M a i n t e n a n c e a n d r e p a i r c o n s t r u c t i o n ...........

37.8
37.8
37.9
37.9
37.7
46.6
37.8

37.9
37.9
37.9
37.9
38.0
46.4
37.9

37.7
37.8
37.7
37.8
37.9
46.4
37.8

37.8
37.8
37.8
37.9
38.0
46.6
37.9

2,559
2, 105
1, 152
420
4 98
557
2,457

2,815
2,398
1,259
450
448
6 14
2,656

3, 175
2,583
1,416
439
453
668
2,84 1

3, 16 1
2,789
1,589
416
435
690
2,918

M a n u f a c t u r in g :
Durables:
O r d n a n c e ............................................
C o m p l e t e g u i d e d m i s s i l e s ........................
L o g g i n g ..................... ........................
S a w m i l l s a n d p l a n i n g m i l l s ......................
Mil l w o r k , plywood, a n d oth er w o o d p r o d u c t s ...
W o o d e n c o n t a i n e r s .................................
H o u s e h o l d f u r n i t u r e ...............................
Oth e r f u r n i t u r e a n d f i x t u r e s ...................
G l a s s ................................................
Ceme n t a n d c o n c r e t e p r o d u c t s ...................
S t r u c t u r a l cl a y p r o d u c t s ........................
P o t t e r y a n d r e l a t e d p r o d u c t s ...................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s st o n e a n d clay p r o d u c t s ........
Blast f u r n a c e s a n d b a s i c steel p r o d u c t s ......
Iron and steel f o u n d r i e s and f o r g i n g s ........
P r i m a r y c o p p e r a n d c o p p e r p r o d u c t s ............
P r i m a r y a l u m i n u m a n d a l u m i n u m p r o d u c t s .......
O t h e r p r i m a r y n o n f e r r o u s p r o d u c t s .............
Metal c o n t a i n e r s ..................................
H e a t i n g a p p a r a t u s a n d p l u m b i n g f i x t u r e s ......

40.5
39.9
39.7
41.1
39.9
39.4
38.6
39.8
40.4
42. 1
40. 9
39.4
40.7
40.2
40.8
42.2
41.4
40.5
43. 1
39.7

40.7
39.9
39.9
4 1.0
40. 3
38.9
38.9
39.7
40.8
42.0
40.9
38.8
40.6
40.2
40.8
41.4
41.4
41.1
43. 1
40. 1

40.7
39.9
39.6
40.9
40.2
38.8
38.8
39.6
40.7
41. 9
40.9
38.7
40.6
40. 2
40.8
41.4
41.3
41.1
43.0
40. 1

40.8
39.8
39.9
41.0
40.3
38.8
38.9
39.7
40.8
41.9
41.0
38.7
40.7
40.2
40.9
41.4
41.4
41.2
43. 1
40. 1

156
168
264
515
687
43
750
302
403
5 15
119
84
292
1, 138
6 16
307
312
183
166
155

158
198
249
482
707
37
836
340
434
549
97
85
306
1,239
684
356
330
208
184
159

151
190
246
463
831
33
941
360
467
586
91
87
326
1,233
737
379
358
219
197
167

143
178
243
425
917
29
1,014
380
476
581
81
84
329
1,157
755
381
368
219
199
161

Total p r i v a t e

^
o




Table A-2. Continued-Average weekly hours and hours o f all persons by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1977-90

Average weekly hours

H o u r s of all p e r s o n s
(in m i l l i o n s )

Industry
1977
F a b r i c a t e d st ruc tural met al ....................
S c r e w m a c h i n e p r o d u c t s ..........................
Me t a l s t a m p i n g s ..................................
Cutlery, handt ool s, and qe neral h a r d w a r e ....
O t h e r f a b r i c a t e d metal pr o d u c t s ...............
En gines, turb in es, an d g e n e r a t o r s ............
Farm m a c h i n e r y ....................................
C o n s t r u c t i o n , mining, and o i l f i e l d m a c h i n e r y
M a t e r i a l h a n d l i n g equ i p m e n t ....................
Me t a l w o r k i n g m a c h i n e s ..........................
S p e c i a l indus t r y m a c h i n e r y .....................
G e n e r a l in dus trial m a c h i n e r y ..................
M a c h i n e shop pr o d u c t s ....... ...................
C o m p u t e r s and peripheral e q u ipment ...........
T y p e w r i t e r s and oth er o f f i c e e q u i p m e n t ......
S e r v i c e i n d ustry m a c h i n e s ......................
E l e c t r i c t r a n s m i s s i o n equipment ...............
E l e c t r i c a l indus tri al a p p a r a t u s ...............
H o u s e h o l d a p p l i a n c e s ............................
E l e c t r i c li g h t i n g and w i r i n g ...................
R a d i o a n d t e l e v i s i o n re ceiving set s ..........
T e l e p h o n e and t e l e g r a p h a p p a r a t u s ............
R a d i o a n d c o m m u n i c a t i o n equ i p m e n t ............
E l e c t r o n i c c o m p o n e n t s ...........................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s electrical p r o d u c t s ............
M o t o r v e h i c l e s ....................................
Ai rcr a f t ...........................................
Sh i p a n d boat b u i l d i n g and repai r ............
R a i l r o a d e q u i p m e n t ................ ..............
M o t o r c y c l e s , bic yc les , and par t s ..............
O t h e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n equipment ................
S c i e n t i f i c and c o n t r o l l i n g i n s t r u m e n t s ......
M e d i c a l a n d den ta l instruments ................
O p t i c a l a n d o p h t h a l m i c e q u ipment ..............
P h o t o g r a p h i c equ i p m e n t and s u p plies ..........
Watch e s , clocks, and clo ck op e r a t e d d e v i c e s .
J e w e l r y a n d sil v e r w a r e ..........................
M u s i c a l i n s t r u m e n t s and sport i n g g o o d s ......
O t h e r m i s c e l l a n e o u s m a n u f a c t u r e d p r o d u c t s ...
Nondurables'
M e a t p r o d u c t s .....................................
Da i ry p r o d u c t s ....................................
C a n n e d a n d fr ozen foods .........................
G r a i n mill p r o d u c t s .............................
B a k e r y p r o d u c t s ..................................
S u g a r ...............................................
C o n f e c t i o n e r y p r o d u c t s ..........................
A l c o h o l i c b e v e r a g e s .............................
S o f t d r i n k s and f l a v o r i n g s .....................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s foo d pr o d u c t s ....................
T o b a c c o m a n u f a c t u r i n g ...........................
Fab ric s, yarn, and thread mil l s ...............
Flo o r c o v e r i n g s ..................................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s t e x t i l e go o d s ....................
H o s i e r y a n d knit goods ..........................
A p p a r e l ............................................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s f a b r i c a t e d t e x t i l e p r o d u c t s ...
P a p e r p r o d u c t s ....................................
P a p e r b o a r d ........................................




1980

1985

1990

1977

1980

1985

1990

AO. 1
A 1.9
A 1 .2
AO.6
AO. A
AO.8
AO.6
A 1. 1
AO.2
A2.3
AO.7
AO.8
A 1.6
AO. A
A 1. 1
A O .0
AO. 1
AO.2
39.6
39.8
38.9
A 1. 1
AO.2
39.7
AO.9
A3. 1
AO.7
39.0
AO. 1
39.2
38.9
3 A .A
39.5
39.8
AO.7
39.7
37.8
38.9
A O .0

AO.3
A 1 .3
A 1. 1
AO.5
AO. A
AO.6
AO.7
AO.6
AO. 1
A 1.5
AO.7
AO.5
A 1.3
AO.2
A 1.2
AO.2
AO .0
AO .0
39.8
AO. 1
39. 1
AO.6
39.9
39.9
A 1.3
A2.5
AO. A
39.8
39.9
AO. 1
39.5
33.9
39.7
AO.3
AO.7
AO.2
38.3
39. 1
3,9. A

AO.2
A 1 .2
A 1. 1
AO. A
AO. A
AO.6
AO.7
AO.7
A O .0
A 1 .5
AO.6
AO.5
A 1.2
AO .0
A 1 .0
AO. 1
AO .0
AO .0
39.7
AO . 1
39. 1
AO .6
39.9
39.8
A 1 .2
A2.5
AO .3
39.7
39.9
39.9
39.A
3A.0
39.7
AO .3
AO.6
AO.2
38.2
39. 1
39.3

A0.3
A 1 .3
A 1.1
A 0 .5
AO .A
AO .6
A 0 .8
AO .7
A 0 .0
A 1.5
A 0 .6
A0.5
A 1.3
39.7
A0.9
A 0 .2
A 0 .0
A 0.0
39.8
A0 . 1
39. 1
A 0 .6
39.9
39.8
A 1.3
A2.6
A0.3
39.7
A 0.0
39.9
39. A
3A.2
39.7
A0.3
A0.5
A0.3
38.3
39. 1
39.3

977
2A6
518
37A
679
2AA
3 10
538
203
723
379
633
6 AA
586
92
362
A28
A68
367
A28
271
310
6 15
808
3A7
2,001
1,0 1A
A69
96
53
277
331
238
1A5
275
66
163
295
A35

1, 132
255
596
A 18
723
275
350
522
2A 1
80 1
A36
70 1
688
672
105
A33
A92
5 1A
399
513
275
388
668
959
356
2,225
1,198
511
11A
73
313
3A6
267
187
319
7A
182
351
A7 1

1,313
265
635
A62
786
296
375
625
269
892
A70
779
76 A
832
103
A99
5A1
57 1
A3A
58A
28A
A3 1
658
1,121
379
2, AA9
1, 161
526
127
77
A75
360
319
193
36 1
80
195
389
A67

1, A 5 1
262
6A3
A82
813
306
386
708
287
9A0
A86
825
816
989
96
5AA
57A
606
AAA
628
278
A62
637
1,257
381
2,560
1,088
5A0
13A
81
628
357
36A
190
391
81
197
AOA
AA0

39.6
A 1.0
37.7
A2.3
39.3
39.7
39.6
A1 .A
39.2
A 1.2
38.5
AO.7
A 1 .5
AO.9
39.0
35.6
38.9
A2.3
A 1 .2

AO. A
AO.6
38.7
A2.5
39.5
AO .6
39.8
A 1. 1
39. A
A 1 .2
38.7
AO.8
A 1 .2
AO .9
38.8
36. 1
38. A
A2.2
A 1. 1

AO .3
AO.6
38.7
A2.5
39. A
AO .5
39.7
A 1. 1
39. A
A 1. 1
38.6
AO .8
A 1.1
AO .8
38.8
36. 1
38. A
A2.2
A 1.0

A0.A
A0.6
38.8
A2.5
39.5
A0. A
39.8
A 1. 1
39. A
A 1. 1
38.7
A0.8
A 1.2
A0.9
38.8
36.2
38. A
A 2 .1
A 1.0

756
A2A
567
323
503
62
173
196
30 A
332
1A0
1,233
138
15 1
5A7
2,060
382
1,062
A65

775
362
688
326
A9A
75
185
18A
299
367
1A3
1, 150
160
175
607
2,295
A 12
1,077
A99

80 1
316
725
337
A68
7A
18A
176
319
38A
133
1, 155
187
182
635
2, A23
AA5
1, 12A
539

769
299
7A6
3AA
A37
72
180
172
338
387
121
'1,1A8'
223
186
680
2,503
A82
1, 165
577

Table A -2. Continued—Average weekly hours and hours of all persons by industry, actual and projected, selected years 1977-90

H o u r s o f all p e r s o n s
(in mi 1 1 ions)

Average weekly hours
Industry
1977

1980

1985

1990

1977

1980

1985

1990

N e w s p a p e r p r i n t i n g and p u b l i s h i n g ............
P e r i o d i c a l s a n d boo k pr inting, p u b l i s h i n g ...
M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r i n t i n g and p u b l i s h i n g .......
I n d u s t r i a l i n o r g a n i c and orga n i c c h e m i c a l s ..
A g r i c u l t u r a l c h e m i c a l s ..........................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s c h e m i c a l p r o d u c t s ...............
P l a s t i c m a t e r i a l s and syn t h e t i c rub ber ......
S y n t h e t i c f i b e r s .................................
D r u g s ...............................................
C l e a n i n g a n d t o i l e t p r e p a r a t i o n s .............
P a i n t s a n d a l l i e d p r o d u c t s .....................
P e t r o l e u m r e f i n i n g and related products .....
T i r e s a n d inn er tub e s ...........................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s r u b b e r p r o d u c t s .................
P l a s t i c p r o d u c t s .................................
L e a t h e r t a n n i n g a n d indu st rial lea th er ......
F o o t w e a r and oth e r le ather p r o d u c t s ..........

37.3
39.2
39.0
A 1. 1
41.8
41.1
41.8
40.2
39.9
40.0
40 . 1
41.8
43.4
40.5
39.9
39.2
37.4

37.4
39.2
39. 1
4 1.0
4 1.4
40.8
42. 1
40.3
40.2
40.3
40.2
4 1.5
43. 1
40.6
40 . 1
39.7
37.8

37.5
39.2
39. 1
40.9
41.3
40.7
42.2
40.3
40.2
40.3
40.2
41.5
43. 1
40.6
40.0
39.7
37.8

37.6
39.2
39. 1
40.9
4 1.2
40.7
42.2
40.3
40.2
40.3
40.2
41.6
43.2
40.6
40.0
39.7
37.9

791
434
1,055
739
124
184
224
211
363
260
146
454
280
369
789
51
469

902
480
1, 154
727
125
222
210
262
369
274
162
4 10
289
388
830
45
478

946
494
1, 172
778
124
239
226
3 14
411
3 11
182
398
3 16
405
897
40
448

962
502
1, 175
846
125
254
241
386
467
351
195
391
344
416
981
34
400

T r a n s p o r t a t io n •
R a i l r o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ........................
Local transit, int e r c i t y buses ................
Truck t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ............................
W a t e r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ............................
Air t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ..............................
P i p e l i n e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ........................
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s ........................

43.4
36.0
40.7
32.8
39. 1
40.7
38.0

44. 1
36.2
40.8
33.4
39.9
41.2
38.0

44.2
36.0
40.7
33.3
39.8
41.4
37.8

44.3
35.9
40.8
33.4
39.8
41.6
37.7

1,217
556
2,732
338
773
36
306

1,278
572
3,072
343
825
37
352

1,181
591
3,288
335
960
36
4 19

1,037
604
3,368
332
1,056
36
494

Co mm uni cat io n s :
C o m m u n i c a t i o n , exce p t radio and tele v i s i o n ..
R a d i o a n d t e l e v i s i o n b r o a d c a s t i n g ............

40.3
39.3

39.2
40. 1

38.9
40.3

38.7
40.6

2, 182
331

2,295
37 1

2,373
456

2,458
532

Publi c util i t i e s :
E l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s ..............................
G a s u t i l i t i e s .....................................
W a t e r a n d s a n i t a r y se r v i c e s ...................

41.7
40.9
41.4

42.3
4 1.1
41.8

42.4
41.1
41.5

42.7
41.2
41.3

941
455
239

1,049
446
268

1, 135
420
313

1, 158
36 1
349

Trade:
W h o l e s a l e t r a d e ..................................
R e t a i 1 t r a d e ......................................

38.9
33. 1

39. 1
32.5

38.8
31.3

38.6
30.3

10,108
27,3 57

11,209
30,127

11,760
32,660

11,819
33,885

Fin an ce, in sur ance, a n d real estate:
B a n k i n g ............................................
C r e d i t a g e n c i e s a n d f i n a ncial b r o k e r s .......
I n s u r a n c e ..........................................
Real e s t a t e .......................................

36.4
37.8
37.8
36.8

36.8
37.7
37.8
36.2

36.5
37.5
37.5
35.7

36.4
37.4
37.3
35.3

2,541
1,554
3,312
2,046

2,725
1,757
3,559
2,224

3,352
2,046
3,906
2,404

3,889
2,271
4,111
2,494

Ser v ic e s :
H o t e l s a n d l o d g i n g plac e s ......................
P e r s o n a l a n d r e p a i r se r v i c e s ..................
B a r b e r a n d b e a u t y sho ps ........................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s b u s i n e s s s e r vices ...............
A d v e r t i si ng .......................................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r o f e s s i o n a l services ..........
A u t o m o b i l e r e p a i r ................................
M o t i o n p i c t u r e s ..................................
A m u s e m e n t s a n d r e c r e a t i o n services ...........
Doctors' a n d dentists' s e r vices ...............
H o s p i t a l s ..........................................
O t h e r m e d i c a l s e r v i c e s ..........................
E d u c a t i o n a l s e r v i c e s ............................
N o n p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n s ........................
F o r e s t r y a n d f i s h e r y p r o d u c t s .................
A g r i c u l t u r a l , forestry, and fish e r y services
P r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s ...............................

32. 1
38.2
36.0
31.6
38.9
39.4
39.3
30.5
32. 1
35.2
33.6
33.2
35. 1
31.1
34.7
33.7
22.7

32.2
37.3
35.3
31.3
37.5
38.7
38.3
30.6
32.4
34.4
33.3
33.0
34.5
31.1
34.3
33.3
22. 8

31.4
36.7
34.4
30.5
36.9
37.8
37.5
30.2
31.5
33.4
32.5
32.2
33.7
30.4
33.4
33. 1
22.6

30.7
36.6
33.9
29.8
36.7
37. 1
37. 1
29.8
30.8
32.6
31.8
31.4
33. 1
29.7
32.9
33.0
22.4

1,979
2,445
728
3,846
435
3, 169
1,913
327
1,170
2,332
4,547
2, 168
2,607
3,338
74
448
2,258

2,221
2,453
787
4,539
421
3,314
2,049
355
1,384
2,523
5,080
2,750
2,76 1
3,723
74
502
1,901

2,554
2,424
822
5,687
424
3,794
2, 141
37 1
1,526
2,872
6,151
3,728
2,995
4,0 17
78
575
1,699

2,791
2,367
837
6,800
4 18
4, 188
2, 195
37 1
1,620
3, 188
7, 122
4,994
3.069
4, 132
78
629
1,519







Table A-3. Factors affecting changes in em ploym ent, 1977-90
(In th o u s a n d s )

Indus t r y

Total p r i v a t e

......................................

Total
change,
1977-90
22,582

Cha n g e a t t r i b u t a b l e toOutput

39,667

Produc­
tivity

Average
week ly
hours

-20, 129

2,439

Agri c u l t u r e :
Dai ry and p o u l t r y p r o d u c t s ......................
Meat a n i m a l s and livestock ......................
Cotton ...............................................
Food and feed gra i n s ..............................
Oth er a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s ......................

- 104
-54
8
23
-161

33
95
50
209
111

-178
-189
-52
-234
-349

41
41
10
47
77

Mi ni ngt
Iron and f e r r o a l l o y or e s m i n i n g ................
Copper ore m i n i n g .................................
Oth er n o n f e r r o u s ore m i n i n g .....................
Coal m i n i n g .........................................
Crude p e t r o l e u m a n d natural gas ................
Sto ne and clay m i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g ...........
Che mi cal and f e r t i l i z e r m i n e r a l m i n i n g .......

1
22
-0
121
15
-0
-8

18
36
15
160
43
35
-0

- 16
- 12
- 15
-43
-29
-34
-8

-1
-2
0
5
-0
-1
-0

Co nst ruct ion '■
New r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n .........
New n o n r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n q c o n s t r u c t i o n .....
New p u b l i c u t i l i t y c o n s t r u c t i o n ................
New h i g h w a y c o n s t r u c t i o n .........................
All o t h e r new c o n s t r u c t i o n ......................
Oil a n d gas well d r i l l i n g and e x p l o r a t i o n ....
M a i n t e n a n c e and r e p a i r c o n s t r u c t i o n ...........

305
349
225
-2
-34
55
233

7 19
464
242
38
25
84
28 1

-4 12
- 1 16
-20
-40
-57
-29
-46

-1
0
2
0
-2
-0
-1

Ma nuf actu ri n g :
Durables:
Or d n a n c e ............................................
Compl e t e g u i d e d m i s s i l e s .........................
Loggi ng ..............................................
Sawmi l l s and p l a n i n g m i l l s ......................
Mil lwo rk , plywood, and other w o o d p r o d u c t s ...
Woode n c o n t a i n e r s .................................
Hou s e h o l d f u r n i t u r e ...............................
Other f u r n i t u r e and f i x t u r e s ....................
Glass ................................................
Cement and c o n c r e t e p r o d u c t s ....................
St ru ctural clay p r o d u c t s .........................
Pottery and r e l a t e d p r o d u c t s ....................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s ston e and clay p r o d u c t s .........
B l a s t .f u r n a c e s and ba s i c steel p r o d u c t s ......
Iron and steel f o u n d r i e s and f o r g i n g s .........
Primary copper and c o p p e r p r o d u c t s ............
Primary a l u m i n u m and a l u m i n u m p r o d u c t s .......
Other p r i m a r y n o n f e r r o u s p r o d u c t s ..............
Metal c o n t a i n e r s ...................................
H e a ting a p p a r a t u s and p l u m b i n g f i x t u r e s ......

-7
5
-1 1
-42
107
-7
128
38
33
32
-18
1
18
9
65
37
26
15
15
2

14
18
15
-1
25 1
-4
275
78
95
98
-6
8
23
205
123
73
68
42
38
39

-20
-13
-25
-4 1
-141
-3
- 144
-40
-60
-67
- 11
-8
-6
-196
-58
-38
-43
-24
-23
-36

-1
0
-1
1
-4
0
-4
0
-2
1
-0
1
0
-0
-0
2
0
-2
0
-1




Table A-3. Continued-Factors affecting changes in employm ent, 1977-90
(I n t h o u s a n d s )

C h a n g e a t t r i b u t a b l e toIndustry

F a b r i c a t e d s t r uctural met al .....................
Scr e w mach i n e p r o d u c t s ...........................
Met al stampings ....................................
Cutlery, handt oo ls, and general h a r d w a r e .....
Oth er f a b r i c a t e d metal p r o d u c t s ................
Engines, tur bin es , and g e n e r a t o r s .............
Farm m a c h i n e r y .....................................
Co nst ruction, mining , and o i l f i e l d m a c h i n e r y .
Material h a n d l i n g e q u i p m e n t .....................
Met al w o r k i n g m a c h i n e s ...........................
Sp eci al indus tr y m a c h i n e r y ......................
Ge ner al industrial m a c h i n e r y ....................
M a c h i n e shop p r o d u c t s ............................
C o m p u t e r s and p e r i p h e r a l e q u i p m e n t ............
T y p e w r i t e r s and other office e q u i p m e n t .......
S e r vice indu st ry m a c h i n e s .......................
Elect r i c t r a n s m i s s i o n e q u i p m e n t ................
El ectrical ind us trial a p p a r a t u s ................
H o u s e h o l d a p p l i a n c e s ..............................
El ect ric l i g htinq and w i r i n g ....................
Rad io and t e l e v i s i o n r e c e i v i n g sets ...........
T e l e p h o n e and t e l e g r a p h a p p a r a t u s .............
Rad io and c o m m u n i c a t i o n e q u i p m e n t .............
E l e c tronic c o m p o n e n t s ............................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s e l e c t r i c a l p r o d u c t s .............
Mot o r v e h icles .....................................
A i r craft ............................................
Sh ip and boat b u i l d i n q and repair ..............
R a i l r o a d equ i p m e n t ................................
M o t o rcycles, bicycles, and p a r t s ...............
Other t r a n s p o r t a t i o n e q u i p m e n t .................
S c i e n t i f i c and c o n t r o l l i n g i n s t r u m e n t s .......
Medic al and dent al i n s t r u m e n t s .................
Op tic al and o p h t h a l m i c e q u i p m e n t ...............
P h o t o g r a p h i c e q u i p m e n t and s u p p l i e s ...........
Wa tches , clocks, and cloc k o p e r a t e d d e v i c e s ..
J e w e l r y and s i l v e r w a r e ...........................
Musical inst r u m e n t s and s p o r t i n g goods .......
Oth er m i s c e l l a n e o u s m a n u f a c t u r e d p r o d u c t s ....
Nondurables:
Me at products ......................................
Dai ry p r o d u c t s ......................................................................................
Cann e d and frozen fo o d s ..........................
Gra in mill p r o d u c t s ...............................
Bake r y p r o d u c t s ...................................................................................
Suq ar ...............................................................................................................
C o n f e c t i o n e r y p r o d u c t s ...............................................................
A l c o h o l i c b e v e r a g e s ...............................
Soft drinks and f l a v o r i n g s ......................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s food p r o d u c t s .....................
T o b acco m a n u f a c t u r i n g ............................
Fabrics, yarn, and thr e a d m i l l s ................
Flo or c o v e r i n g s ...................................................................................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s t e x t i l e g o o d s .................................................
H o s i e r y and knit g o o d s ...............................................................
Ap par el ..........................................................................................................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s f a b r i c a t e d t e x t i l e p r o d u c t s ....
Pap er pr o d u c t s .....................................
P a p e r b o a r d ..........................................

Tot al
change,
1977-90

Out p u t

225
9
59
52
64
30
35
82
41
107
51
93
82
200
2
87
71
67
37
94
3
74
13
216
14
263
40
30
19
13
170
16
60
21
56
7
16
53
6

445
18
128
104
100
64
87
1 12
78
188
109
172
138
300
19
169
143
139
123
137
1 17
145
66
456
73
484
266
99
41
33
162
48
55
29
1 11
26
64
120
108

- 1
-57
81
9
-33
4
3
-10
16
26
-10
-4 1
40
16
67
2 18
52
49
53

80
13
136
32
15
8
14
44
62
83
7
140
82
45
233
69 1
131
210
123

Produc­
tivity
-219
-11
-69
-52
-36
-35
-51
-32
-37
-87
-58
-81
-57
- 104
-17
-82
-73
-73
-85
-4 1
- 1 13
-72
-55

-239
-57
-231
-230
-64
-23
- 19
10
-33
6
-7
-55

- 18
-46
-66
-104
-73
-72
-47
-22
-47
-3
- 11
-55
-45
-58
-16
-180
-42
-28
-167
-452
-8 1
-163
-7 1

Average
weekly
hours
-2
1
0
1
0
0
-1
2
0
5
0
2
2
3
0
-1
0
1
-1
-2
-1
1
2
- 1
-2
9
4
-5

0
-1
-2
1
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
- 1
3
-8
2
-9
- 1
-1
-1
-0
0
- 1

0
-0
- 1
0
0
1
-21
2
. 1
1




Table A-3. C o ntinued-Factors affecting changes in em ploym ent, 1977-90
(In th o u s a n d s )

C h a n g e a t t r i b u t a b l e toTot al
cha nge,
1977-90

Industry

Output

Produc­
tivity

Average
weekly
ho u r s

N e w s p a p e r p r i n t i n g and p u b l i s h i n g ..............
P e r i o d i c a l s a n d book print in g, p u b l i s h i n g ....
M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r i n t i n g and p u b l i s h i n g .........
In dustrial in o r g a n i c and o r g a n i c c h e m i c a l s ...
A g r i c u l t u r a l c h e m i c a l s ...........................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s chemi c a l p r o d u c t s ................
P l a s t i c m a t e r i a l s and s y n t h e t i c rubber .......
S y n t h e t i c f i b e r s ...................................
Dr ugs ................................................
Cl e a n i n g and toi l e t p r e p a r a t i o n s ...............
Pain t s and a l l i e d p r o d u c t s ......................
P e t r o l e u m r e f i n i n g and r e l a t e d p r o d u c t s ......
Tir es and inner tub e s ............................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s rubb e r p r o d u c t s ...................
Plastic p r o d u c t s ...................................
Leathe r t a n n i n g and ind us trial leat h e r .......
Footwear a n d ot h e r leather p r o d u c t s ...........

84
33
57
52
1
34
7
83
49
43
23
-29
29
22
91
-9
-38

151
79
134
191
17
76
20
124
96
76
62
9
75
67
133
-2
30

-63
-46
-75
-140
-16
-43
-12
-40
-46
-32
-38
-38
-46
-45
-4 1
-6
-65

T r a n s p o r t a t io n :
R a i l r o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ..........................
Local tra ns it, int e r c i t y bus e s .................
Truck t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ..............................
Water t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ..... ........................
Air t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ................................
Pi p e l i n e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ..........................
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e s ..........................

-89
26
297
-6
131
-0
97

256
149
626
123
317
7
133

-331
-123
-327
-125
-178
-6
-37

-14
0
-3
-4
-8
-0
1

Communi cati on s!
Communic a t i o n , exc e p t radi o and t e l e v i s i o n ...
Rad io and t e l e v i s i o n b r o a d c a s t i n g .............

180
90

840
164

-689
-68

28
-7

Publi c utilities^
Electric u t i l i t i e s ................................
Ga s u t i l i t i e s ......................................
Water and s a n i t a r y s e r v i c e s .....................

88
-46
52

339
-24
57

-238
-20
-6

-13
-2
0

Trade':
W h o l e s a l e tr a d e ....................................
R e t a i 1 t r a d e ....................................

897
5,5 65

2,537
9,102

-1,676
-4,750

36
1,213

Finance, insu ran ce , a n d real estate!
B a n k i n g ..............................................
Credit a g e n c i e s a n d fin a n c i a l b r o k e r s .........
In s u r a n c e ...........................................
Real e s t a t e .........................................

712
377
430
289

946
463
7 19
688

-234
-93
-305
-434

-0
8
16
35

562
13
86
2,0 44

948
200
69
2,255
19
640
569
93
278
1,021
2,294
1,278
266
6 18
13
73
208

-429
-236

42
49
25
128
13
95
43

Servi ces:
Hotels a n d l o d g i n g p l a c e s

.......................

Barber and b e a u t y shops ..........................
M i s c e l l a n e o u s b u s i n e s s s e r v i c e s ................
Adve rt i si ng ....... ........................ ........
M i s c e l l a n e o u s p r o f e s s i o n a l s e r v i c e s ...........
A u t o m o b i l e rep a i r .................................
Moti o n p i c t u r e s ....................................
A m u s e m e n t s a n d r e c r e a t i o n s e r v i c e s ............
Doctors' and den ti sts' s e r v i c e s ................
H o s p i t a l s ...........................................
Other m e d i c a l s e r v i c e s ...........................
E d u c ational s e r v i c e s ..............................
Non p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n s ..........................
Fores t r y a n d f i s h e r y p r o d u c t s ...................
Agr i c u l t u r a l , for est ry , a n d f i s h e r y s e r v i c e s .
P r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s ................................

4

626
202
33

310
607
1,703
1,80 1
355
609
5

110
14

-8

-339
-27
-110
-410
-64
1
-495
-713
432
-1
-104
-10
31
-202

-4
-0
-1
1
1
1
-1
-0
-1
-1
-0
1
1
-0
-1
-0
-3

4

31
80
122
91
90
94
2
5
9

Changing patterns of demand:
BLS projections to 1990
With lower taxes; unemployment, and inflation,
the Bureau's latest projections show consumers
buying more durable goods, businesses investing
in more energy-efficient, environmentally-safe
equipment, and government's GNP share declining;
foreign trade is expected to be in balance by 1990
A

rthur

A

n d r ea ssen

The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of
the U.S. economy estimate that by 1990

and services, as well as projected output and
employment by industry.1
This article presents the long-term trends of
demand’s four major components—personal con­
sumption, investment, net exports, and govern­
ment purchases. It also shows how total projected
demand is distributed by industry and briefly
presents projections based on an alternative set of
assumptions. The table on page 41 of this issue
includes actual or projected levels, distribution,
and rates of change of the components of GNP for
selected years.

• Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) will continue
to be the largest component o f gross national product
(GNP), increasing its share to 67.6 percent, with purchases
o f durable goods increasing faster than purchases o f
nondurables and services;
• Gross private domestic investment (GPDI) will increase
slightly its portion o f GNP, spurred mainly by more
business investment in equipment and by increased
hpusehold formation by adults o f the post-World-War-II
baby boom;
• the foreign trade accounts will be balanced in current
dollars, as exports o f capital goods offset oil and gas
imports and as economies in less developed countries
strengthen to support the purchase o f U.S. products; and

Assumptions: laying the groundwork

The output of an economy is determined by the
supply of its factors of production. An economy
will produce at its maximum if the level of demand
for goods and services is enough to support such
production and if fiscal, monetary, and trade
policies do not prohibit the full use of resources.
Over a projected period, an economy’s major
factor of production is its labor force. Therefore, to
project future levels of output it is necessary to
estimate the proportion of the present population
that will be in the work force and the proportion
that will be employed. For its projections to 1990,
the Bureau derived output levels by first setting

• government purchases will continue to decrease as a share
of GNP, reaching 15.5 percent, as Federal purchases slow
and as State and local purchases ebb with lower demand
for education and for highway construction.

Based on a set of assumptions concerning future
economic conditions and policy, these projections
supersede earlier projections for the 1980—
85
period and present new estimates to 1990. Overall,
the projections comprise final demand for goods
Arthur Andreassen is an economist in the Office o f Economic
Growth, Bureau o f Labor Statistics.




46

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • B L S Projections to 1990

target rates of unemployment consistent with the
Administration’s near-term objectives, followed by
high employment levels over the longer term. GNP
growth was assumed to increase fast enough to
allow unemployment to fall to 4.7 percent by 1985
and 4.5 percent by 1990 (from 7.0 percent in 1977).
However, output was assumed to grow increasing­
ly slower over the projected period as a result of
the drop in the growth rate of the civilian labor
force from 2.3 percent per year from 1975 to 1980,
to 1.1 percent per year from 1985 to 1990. This
decline was not expected to be offset by an
increase in the growth rate of either productivity or
hours paid.
These projections start at a point, 1977, when
the economy was emerging from the severest
recession since the Great Depression. The impact
of high energy prices and unusually high rates of
inflation tempered the recovery.
The rapidity with which an economy returns to
levels of full employment is dependent on the
growth of demand, and much of demand is a
function of personal income. BLS assumed that,
over the 1977-90 period, the percent of personal
income that would go toward Federal income
taxes would drop to 10.5 percent from 11.1
percent. Further, it was assumed that the rate of
inflation as measured by the GNP deflator would
gradually fall from 6.2 percent during 1975-80 to
4.6 percent during 1985-90. No additional restric­
tions governing imports, over the existing quotas
on textiles, shoes, and color television sets, were
assumed.
Certain major assumptions were made concern­
ing energy. Energy usage was projected to increase
at a rate of 1.3 percent per year from 1973 to 1980,
less than one-third the 5.0 percent of 1963 to 1973.
From 1980 to 1985, the growth rate of energy
usage was assumed to recover to 3.3 percent per
year, a rate not as high as the pre-embargo period,
due to the expected higher energy prices over the
latter period. From 1985 to 1990, the growth in
usage was projected to be 2.9 percent due mainly
to slower economic growth.
Over the projected period, the prices of natural
gas and oil were expected to rise faster than coal
and electricity. Along with these relative price
movements, natural gas was assumed to be less
available than during 1963-73, and utilities were
expected to shift to coal, oil, and nuclear fuel.
Petroleum’s share of energy was assumed to
increase to 38.5 percent from 37.4 percent over
1973-80, then begin to decline to a share equal to
1973’s by 1990. This decrease in petroleum’s share
was assumed to result from oil’s expected higher



47

price relative to coal and electricity, from a change
in Government regulations, and from fear of
possible future embargos.
Demographic shifts have a major impact on the
economy. Along with slower growth of GNP due
to the slow growth of the labor force, a changing
distribution of GNP by sector and industry will
reflect the changing age composition of the
population. From 1977 to 1990, the fastest-growing
age group will be those 25 to 44 years old, which
will increase from 57 million to 78 million. The
effect of this growth will be tempered by the
stability of the 45- to 64-year-old group, which will
remain at about 45 million, and by the decline in
the number of persons ages 16 to 24 which will
drop from 37 million to 31 million over the 1977 to
1990 period. The number of persons age 16 years
and under will remain around 57 million, while the
number over 64 will increase to 30 million from 23
million.2
Personal consumption expenditures

During 1977-90, the largest component of GNP,
personal consumption expenditures, (PCE), is
expected to continue to increase its share of GNP
as it has done over the postwar period. In 1952,
PCE represented 58.6 percent of GNP, while, by
1990, it is expected to be 67.6 percent. This
increase will be abetted by the projected slowing in
the growth of the share of personal income devoted
to both Federal and State and local taxes, as well
as by the continuous drop in the savings rate from
7.0 percent during most of the 1970’s to 6.0 percent
by 1990. The projected level of PCE is higher than
the 66.5 percent reached in 1976, when PCE made
the strongest recovery of all final-demand sectors
from the cyclical low of early 1975.
PCE displays the least variation of the four
demand sectors over business cycles, having a
postwar drop in its growth rate only once, in 1974.
However, greater variation will be displayed by the
three major components of PCE—durable goods,
nondurable goods, and services. Continuing trends
begun in 1951, purchases of durable goods and
services are projected to increase faster than GNP,
while purchases of nondurable goods will increase
at a slower rate.
Furniture leads durables’ climb. Durable goods are
generally high-priced goods that provide long
periods of service, and their purchase can be more
easily delayed during hard times than can be the
purchases of low-priced but frequently purchased
items. Durable goods purchases vary the most over
the business cycle, reacting similarly in direction
and timing with changes in nonresidential invest-

Eating out high on nondurables' list. Nondurable
purchases, the largest of the three PCE compo­
nents, has displayed little variation over the
business cycle, experiencing a year-to-year decline
in growth only once—from 1973 to 1974—from
1951 to 1976. During this period, this component
decreased in its share of PCE from a high of 48.8
percent, attained in 1952, to 38.5 percent in 1977.
Nondurables will account for 35.4 percent of PCE
by 1990.
The largest nondurable product class is food
consumed in the home, which has accounted for
more than 60 percent of nondurables since 1951.
Because most of the U.S. population enjoys an
adequate diet, increases in income levels have
relatively less effect on households’ food purchas­
es, and these will grow only slightly faster than the
population—1.9 percent per year—the same rate
as from 1960 to 1977.
Food consumed away from home does vary
significantly with personal income. Therefore,
because of the continued increase in real income,
the amount of food consumed away from home
will increase faster than total nondurable purchas­
es over the 1977-90 period—at 2.3 percent per
year, versus the 1.9-percent rate of 1960 to 1977.
Consumer expenditures for clothing, another
item that shows larger than average income
elasticity, will grow 4.0 percent per year from 1977
to 1990, up from the 3.1-percent annual rate of
1951-77. Along with rising income levels, a major
source of demand for clothing will be the increase
in the number of persons age 25 to 44 years who
purchase large quantities of clothes.
The projected rate of increase in consumer
purchases of gasoline and oil will be 2.9 percent
per year slower than the 3.8-percent rate of 196077. This reduction is based on an increase in

ment. Purchases of durable goods drop sharply
during economic downturns and rise rapidly
during recoveries—a pattern which can be seen
over the 1961-65 period. This will be the 1977-80
pattern, with durables increasing rapidly from the
already high level of 1976.
The durable goods component comprises three
major product classes: motor vehicles and parts,
furniture and household equipment, and other
durables. Motor vehicles and parts, at present, the
largest component of the three, is projected to
grow the slowest, 4.5 percent per year from 1977 to
1990, yet faster than GNP. This slowdown from
the 5.2-percent rate of 1963-76 is expected to result
from diminished demand as population growth
slows and the average age increases and from a
shift to smaller, less expensive cars as fuel prices
rise. In addition to a slow growth in auto output,
an increase in the service lives of tires and batteries
is expected to result in slower growth in these
products—2.2 percent per year from 1977 to 1990,
down from the 5.3-percent rate of 1960-77 (tables
1 and 2).
Furniture and household equipment is projected
to grow 5.6 percent per year 1977-90, fueled by
expenditures on furniture, appliances, and other
household durables. A rapid increase from 1977 to
1985 in these items is expected due to the rapid
increase projected in housing. Expenditures on
radios and televisions are expected to grow at a
2.5-percent rate during 1985-90—down from the
5.8-percent rate of 1976-85, as a result of market
saturation.
Other durable goods include primarily motorcy­
cles and bicycles and are projected to grow 6.5
percent per year over 1977-90, continuing the
healthy growth rate of 6.8 percent from 1967 to
1977.

Table 1. Personal consumption expenditures, actual and projected, selected years 1959—90
[Amounts in billions of 1972 dollars]
■»--------- « d la ^ H ii d ln ■

rSTCwiI CHVtnDUuOfi

Amount
ExpendNurt
1959
Personal consumption
e xpe nd itu re s...................................
Durables .......................................
M otor vehicles and parts . . . .
Furniture and
household equipment ...........
O ther d u ra b le s.........................
N ondurables.................................
Food .........................................
Clothing ...................................
Gas and o il .............................
Fuel o il and coal ...................
O ther nondurables .................
Services .......................................
H o using .....................................
Household o p e ra tio n ...............
Transportation .........................
Other s e rv ic e s .........................




1963

1(69

1973

1977

1990

1995

1990

1959

1963

1969

1973

1977

1990

1985

1990

441.5
51.8
24.4

501.4
60.7
29.7

633.4
88.2
40.2

767.7
121.8
54.6

857.7
137.8
61.0

966.5
160.3
69.2

1,184.4
207.3
86.7

1,428.7
262.7
106.2

100.0
11.7
5.5

100.0
12.1
5.9

100.0
13.9
6.3

100.0
15.9
7.1

100.0
16.0
7.1

100.0
16.6
7.2

100.0
17.5
7.3

100.0
18.4
7.6

20.0
7.4
205.0
114.4
36.3
13.7
5.2
35.5
184.7
60.9
26.4
16.3
61.0

22.7
8.3
223.0
120.7
39.6
15.3
4.9
42.5
217.6
74.0
30.9
18.1
94.6

34.9
13.1
270.2
142.0
48.6
19.6
5.7
54.3
275.0
93.6
39.4
22.9
119.0

49.9
17.3
309.3
150.6
59.2
25.5
6.7
67.3
336.5
117.7
48.1
27.5
143.2

56.6
20.2
330.4
165.1
66.6
26.6
5.6
66.4
389.5
140.3
55.4
30.8
158.9

67.8
23.4
368.1
179.1
75.2
28.5
6.1
79.2
438.1
159.3
61.7
35.5
181.5

89.9
30.7
436.1
204.4
92.0
34.9
6.9
98.0
540.9
196.2
76.9
44.8
223.0

115.4
39.0
505.5
229.3
110.5
38.5
7.8
119.5
660.5
237.6
97.0
54.9
271.0

4.5
1.7
46.4
25.9
8.2
3.1
1.2
8.0
41.8
13.8
6.0
3.7
18.3

4.5
1.7
44.5
24.1
7.9
3.1
1.0
8.5
43.4
14.8
6.2
3.6
18.9

5.5
2.1
42.7
22.4
7.7
3.1
.9
8.6
43.4
14.8
6.2
3.6
18.8

6.5
2.3
40.3
19.6
7.7
3.3
.9
8.8
43.8
15.3
6.3
3.6
18.7

6.6
2.4
38.5
19.2
7.8
3.1
.7
7.7
45.4
16.4
6.5
3.6
18.5

7.0
2.4
38.1
18.5
7.8
2.9
.6
8.2
45.5
16.5
6.4
3.7
18.8

7.6
2.6
36.8
17.3
7.8
2.9
.6
8.3
45.7
16.6
6.5
3.8
18.8

8.1
2.7
35.4
16.0
7.7
2.7
.5
8.4
46.2
16.6
6.8
3.8
19.0

48

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • B L S Projections to 1990

expected due to homeowner conservation aided by
better insulation of homes, appliances with in­
creased energy efficiency, and less heating and
cooling of homes throughout the year. Consumer
purchases of services of physicians, dentists, and
private hospitals will increase faster than average.

Table 2. Personal consumption expenditures, average annual rates of changes, actual and projected, 1959—90
1951

Personal consumption
expenditures . . .
D u ra b le s .........................
M otor vehicles
and parts .................
Furniture and
household equipment
Other d urab le e ...........
N ondurables.................
Food ...........................
Clothing . .
Gas and o il ...............
Fuel o il and coal . . .
O ther nondurables . .
Services .........................
Housing . . .
Household operation .
Transportation ...........
O ther s e rv ic e s ...........

190

190

1973

1977

190

109

1977

196)

Expenditure

190

1973

1977

190

190

190

190

3.2
4.0

4.8
7.8

3.9
6.7

2.8
3.1

4.1
5.2

4.2
5.3

3.8
4.9

4.0
5.1

5.0

6.2

6.3

2.8

4.3

4.6

4.5

4.5

3.2
2.9
2.1
1.3
2.2
2.8
-1.5
4.6
4.2
5.0
4.0
2.7
4.0

9.0
9.6
3.9
3.3
4.2
5.1
3.1
5.0
4.8
4.8
5.0
4.8
4.7

7.4
5.7
2.7
1.2
4.0
5.4
3.3
4.4
4.1
4.7
4.3
3.7
3.8

3.2
4.0
1.7
2.3
3.0
1.1
-4.3
-.3
3.7
4.5
3.6
2.9
2.6

6.2
5.0
3.7
2.8
4.1
2.3
2.9
6.1
4.0
4.3
3.7
4.8
4.5

5.8
5.6
3.4
2.7
4.1
4.2
2.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.2

5.1
4.9
3.0
2.3
3.7
2.0
2.5
4.0
4.1
3.9
4.8
4.1
4.0

5.6
5.2
3.3
2.6
4.0
2.9
2.6
4.6
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.5
4.2

to

t
o

t
o

t
o

t
o

t
o

t
o

t
o

Gross private dom estic investment

Demand for investment goods shows the great­
est variability of all GNP sectors over the business
cycle. Investment comprises four components:
business equipment, business structures, residential
structures, and net change in business inventories.
During the 1974-75 downturn, private investment
experienced the largest drop for the longest period
since 1951. In the early stages of the present
upturn, investment did not react in the typical
fashion of increasing faster than GNP; rather, it
declined throughout 1976. However, from 1976 to
1980 investment is projected to increase 7.7
percent per year and, from 1980 to 1985, at 4.2percent rates—both faster than that of GNP. As
the economy maintains an unemployment rate of
4.5 percent from 1985 to 1990, investment growth
will slow down to 3.0 percent per year. The
following tabulation shows the percent distribution
of GPDI components for selected years 1963-90,
actual and projected:

purchases of fuel-efficient autos and a drop in
demand caused by gasoline prices, which will
increase more rapidly than the prices of other
goods.
Personal consumption expenditures for the
remaining nondurables—drugs, toiletries, and
cleaning and polishing products—will continue
their healthy growth of the past.
Services coast as housing booms. The remaining
major PCE component, services, showed the most
stability over the 1951-77 period, with a continu­
ous annual growth rate usually equal to or greater
than GNP. From a share of 40.0 percent of PCE in
1953, services increased to 45.4 percent by 1977,
and they will increase to 46.2 percent by 1990.
Housing, the largest product class within servic­
es, includes the imputed rental value of owneroccupied dwellings and the rent paid by tenants.
Due to an expected rapid increase in household
formation and home purchases, housing expendi­
tures will accelerate rapidly through 1985, at an
annual rate of 4.3 percent.
Projections for other PCE services vary. Con­
sumer purchases of telephone communications will
continue their rapid growth at a rate of 6.9 percent
per year from 1977 to 1990. Purchases of airline
transportation and foreign travel will both increase
more than 5.5 percent, compared with their 8.0percent and 4.4-percent growth rates of 1960 to
1977 due to rapid income growth. Demand for
electric utilities will grow 4.5 percent per year from
1977 to 1990, down from the 7.0 percent prior to
the quadrupling of oil prices in 1973. Purchases of
natural gas from utilities will grow at 1.8 percent
per year—down from the 2.6-percent rate of 196077—because homes are expected to use electricity
rather than gas. Lower total energy usage is



1963 1967 1973 1980 1985

1990

Total ..................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Nonresidential .......... 59.5 68.3 63.8 67.4 64.7
Equipment ............ 34.8 41.4 41.9 47.8 46.4
Structure ................ 24.7 26.9 21.9 19.6 18.3
Residential ................ 34.2 23.8 28.2 25.0 27.3
Change in business
6.2 7.9 8.0 7.6 8.0
inventories ............

100.0
68.2
48.6
19.6
24.9

Investment

6.9

Business to invest in better machines. By 1990,
business investment in plant and equipment is
projected to increase its share of GNP from the
1951-76 low of 9.4 percent in 1976 to 10.7
percent—a share equal to that which it held from
1965 to 1974. Investment in equipment is projected
to be a major force in this upturn, rising from 6.4
percent of GNP in 1976 to 7.6 percent by 1990.
Increased equipment investment will result from
new needs for equipment to control pollution, the
need to shift from equipment that uses scarce
energy sources to types that use more plentiful
sources such as coal, and the replacement of
energy-inefficient machines. Along with these
considerations are specific investment goods for
which demand grows more strongly than for others
due to more rapid output growth and to the
49

concomitant need for investment to produce this
output.
Table 3 shows annual growth rates, projected or
actual, of equipment investment, for selected
periods, 1963-90. Railroad equipment is projected
to have an average annual growth rate from 1973
to 1990 of 4.5 percent—up from the 2.9-percent
rate of 1963—
73—as a result of increased output of
coal and the need to transport it. As a result of
increased petroleum mining on the outer-continen­
tal shelf, the shipbuilding and boatbuilding indus­
try, which includes offshore drilling rigs, is expect­
ed to grow 7.1 percent per year from 1973 to 1990,
compared with the 8.9-percent rate of 1963-73.
Investment in computers is projected to have the
largest average annual growth during 1973-90—
7.5 percent—a rate less than the 13.3-percent rate
of 1963-73, but still maintaining rapid growth little
affected by cyclical movements.
Business investment in plant, the other major
component of business investment, is projected to
grow more slowly than investment in equipment,
2.1 percent per year from 1973 to 1990. This
deceleration will result from a decreased need for
private schools brought on by the diminishing
population of school-age children. Contributing
further to this slow growth will be the post-Alaskan
oil pipeline decrease in construction and a slowing
of public utilities construction as growth in
demand for utilities diminishes.
Investment output ratios relate industry invest­
ment levels to industry output levels. Industries
with ratios increasing faster than average are
expected to be nonferrous ores mining, chemical
and fertilizer mineral mining, and lumber, as these

industries expand capacity and as natural resourc­
es become more difficult to extract. Growth in the
plastics industry is expected to be less than
average, as excess capacity is worked off. The
forestry and fishery industry is expected to have
rapid investment growth as the U.S. fishing fleet
increasingly takes advantage of the opportunities
offered by the 200-mile limit.
Residential boom to wane. Residential construction
is projected to grow faster than GNP at 5.9 percent
per year, causing the share of GNP devoted to
these purchases to rise from 3.7 percent in 1976 to
4.3 percent in 1985. This growth should result from
both a cyclical upturn from the low 1976 level and
the demographic changes as the baby boom
cohorts of the late 1940’s and the 1950’s reach
middle age. From a level of 55 million persons in
1976, the population between 25 and 44 years of
age will increase to about 72 million in 1985. An
increase in rental units and in the sales of mobile
homes that replace some single-family home
urchases will somewhat temper the growth in
ome purchases. From 1985 to 1990, the annual
growth in residential investment will drop to 1.1
ercent, as the impact of the baby boom on
ousehold formation begins to wane.
Inventories in balance. Because inventories are a
function of the sales of each industry, continuous
growth in industry output should enable industries
to keep inventories in good balance. Therefore,
inventory increases brought on by either precau­
tionary stockpiling, caused by such fears of
shortages as occurred in 1972-73, or by decreased
sales as occurred in 1974-75, are not projected for
1977-90.

Table 3. Gross private domestic investment, actual and projected, selected years 1963—90
[Amounts in billions of 1972 dollars]
Avtragt tnnud rtlM of chMQt

Amount
19S3

Total .
Nonresidential investment
Equipment
Furniture and fixtures
Construction, mining, and
oilfield machinery
Computer and peripheral
equipment
Electric transmission equipment
Telephone and telegraph apparatus ___
Radio and communication equipment ...
Motor vehicles
Aircraft .
Railroad equipment
Structures
New nonresidential building
construction
New public utilities
Residential
Change in business inventories .

1913

1987

1973

1990

199S

1980

1995

1973

1973

1980

1985

1990

1990

t
o

t
o

t
o

t
o

t
o

t
o

124.5
74.2
43.3
1.7

152.7
104.3
63.2
2.2

207.2
132.2
86.7
2.7

233.0
157.1
111.4
3.2

286.0
185.1
132.7
3.8

331.0
226.0
161.0
4.6

5.2
8.9
9.9
7.2

5.2
4.0
5.4
3.6

1.7
2.5
3.6
2.4

4.2
3.3
3.6
3.5

3.0
4.1
3.9
3.8

2.8
3.2
3.7
3.1

2.5

3.1

4.6

5.3

6.8

8.1

5.6

6.7

2.1

5.1

3.5

3.4

T.1
1.5
1.3
1.3
7.5
.6
1.2
30.8

2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
10.9
2.9
2.2
41.1

3.7
2.6
2.7
2.6
20.9
2.5
1.6
45.5

7.2
3.1
3.7
3.4
22.9
2.1
2.1
45.7

9.5
3.8
4.4
4.0
24.8
2.9
2.7
52.4

12.7
4.6
5.4
4.9
27.1
3.7
3.5
65.0

20.9
9.0
10.8
9.7
10.0
48.6
15.7
7.4

8.5
3.8
5.8
5.8
11.4
-2.7
-4.8
1.7

10.1
2.6
4.4
4.0
1.3
-2.2
3.5
.1

5.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
1.6
6.3
5.3
2.8

6.0
4.3
4.2
3.8
1.8
5.1
5.2
4.4

7.5
3.4
4.1
3.8
1.5
2.4
4.7
2.1

19.1
6.8
42.6
7.8

25.2
9.9
36.4
12.0

25.8
13.4
58.5
16.5

24.1
13.9
58.3
17.6

27.5
15.9
78.0
22.9

34.4
20.1
82.4
22.7

7.3
10.1
-3.9
(')

.4
5.1
8.2
(')

-1.0
.5
0
(')

2.7
2.8
6.0
C)

4.6
4.8
1.1
(')

1.7
2.4
2.0
(')

' Not meaningful




1990

1973

1987

hnwSMnt

1987

50

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • B L S Projections to 1990
Foreign trade

R eflecting the c o n tin u o u s e co n o m ic
interdependence of the nations of the world, both
exports and imports are projected to increase faster
than GNP over the 1973-90 period. Exports are
projected to rise to a level of 8.2 percent of GNP
by 1990, the highest level attained over the 1951—
90 period. Imports are projected to climb to a 6.9percent level, also a high for this time span. In
current dollars, it is projected that the trade sector
will be approximately in balance. However, the
trade sector will not be in balance in constant
(1972) dollars. Because the price of oil has
increased much faster than the general price level
since 1972, a current-dollar zero trade balance will
translate into a trade surplus—a $25-billion export
surplus by 1990 (table 4).

Food and feed grains .......... . . .
C o tto n .............................................. . . .

Aircraft ....................................... . . .
Construction, mining,
and oilfield machinery ___ . . .



1973

19 9 0

13
26
33
30

1973

1990

P ercen t
change

17
50
12
29
29

33
50
12
39
39

94
0
0
35
100

The Government sector

Anticipated changes in the need for services
provided both by the Federal Government and by
State and local governments will result in the
reduction in the share of GNP devoted to
government purchases to 15.5 percent by 1990.
Government purchases are outlays on goods and
services, while government expenditures include
not only purchases but also grants, transfers, and
net interest payments.3 During the projected
period, Federal purchases will increase slowly, as
military purchases continue the slow climb they
began after they plunged from the high levels of

-41
18
50

24

In du stry

Other nonferrous mining, which includes baux­
ite, is the industry with the largest proportion of
imported output; however, imports will decrease
from 56.6 percent in 1973 to 54.9 percent by 1990.
Imports of radios and television sets are projected
to grow as fast as the industry’s total output,
maintaining the 29-percent share of 1973. Imports
should continue to grow during the 1980’s in spite
of the recently concluded agreement with Japan.
That agreement limits the number of color televi­
sion sets sent to the United States, but these sets
are only 10 percent of the industry’s output and are
more than compensated for by the expected
increase in the importance of other television
equipment, such as video tape recorders. Import
growth in such areas as autos, televisions, and
motorcycles can be expected to slow as countries
with surplus dollar reserves invest in U.S. plants
which produce these products.

P ercen t
change

22
22
22

High fu el imports to continue. Imports of crude
petroleum and natural gas will grow faster than
total imports and much faster than this industry’s
total output. Following are import proportions of
output for selected large importing industries for
1973, as projected for 1990 and the percent change,
1973-90:

Crude petroleum and
natural gas ...........................
Motorcycles ........................... . . . .
M otorvehicles.........................
Office equipment .................. . . . .
Leather footwear .................. . . . .

Exports on the rise. In general, exports can be
expected to increase through the early 1980’s as the
growth rates of other developed countries increase,
raising their economies to levels of employment
higher than present levels, thus increasing their
demand for U.S. goods. Also, the oil-producing
nations are expected to continue to spend their oil
receipts on capital goods, a market in which the
United States has a competitive advantage.
The fastest growing export industry over the
1973-90 period is projected to be the watches and
clocks industry, from which exports are expected
to increase more than five times by 1990. This
acceleration assumes a continuation of the growth
spurred by electronic digital watches in 1975.
Telephone and telegraph exports will be the next
fastest growing industry, with exports increasing to
a level by 1990 3.6 times that of 1973, as a result of
increased use of communications systems by less
developed countries. Other industries in which
exports are expected to more than triple are tires,
computers, household appliances, and photograph­
ic equipment.
As a percentage of industry output, exports will
increase more rapidly in the processed and finished
goods industries than in the food industries. The
following tabulation shows, for selected industries,
exports as a percentage of industry output in 1973,
as projected for 1990, and the percentage change
between the two years:
In dustry

The decrease in the export portion of food and
feed grains reflects a return to more normal export
levels from those of 1972 and 1973, when large
sales of grain were made to Russia after poor
weather there reduced Soviet grain crops. Aircraft
exports will increase as a result of the replacement
of aging original jet passenger aircraft by new
energy-efficient models.

25

51

T«bl« 4. Nat •xports, actual and projactad, aaUctad yaara 1963-90
[Amounts in billions of 1972 dollars]
Amount

P srcw rt distrtbubofi

Avoraga iw u il ra te of dianQ a

1993

oporto ............................................................
7.3
Exports................................................................ 42.2
Food and toad grain* ....................................
2.0
Construction, mining, and oMWd machinery . 1.4
Computers and peripheral equipment ............
.3
Electronic components....................................
.2
Motor vehicles.................................................
1.9
Aircraft ............................................................
12
Imports ................................................................ -36.0
Crude petroleum and natural gas .................. •1.6
Apparel............................................................
-.6
Petroleum refining and other related
products......................................................... -1.1
Footwear and other leather products............
-.2
-2
Radio and TV receiving sets .........................
Motor vehidee.................................................. -.7

Not

1997

1973

3.5
542
12
1.8
.6
.4
2.4
2.1
■50.7
-1.5
-1.0

7.9
87.4
4.6
2.4
1.9
1.5
4.4
4.2
•79.9
-3.6
-2.3

-1.3
-.5
-.6
-3.0

-2.9
-1.0
-2.4
-9.7

1990

1999

1990

1001

15.9
20.6
26.6
o
117.0 139.3 173.1 100.0
4.7
3.8
3.9
4.3
3.4
4.3
5.6
3.3
3.1
42
.7
5.8
2.7
3.7
5.1
.5
6.0
72
6.9
4.5
6.5
7.9
9.6
2.8
-101.1 -118.7 -146.5 100.0
-7.1
-72
-9.5
4.6
-3.1
-42
1.7
-3.5
-2.4
-1.6
-3.8
-122

-3.4
-2.1
•4.8
-13.8

-4.1
•3.0
-62
-17.1

3.1
.6
.6
2.0

1007

io
n

I9 6 0

1009

1990

1097

1073

1000

1909

1973

1997

N at o p o rto

1093

1171

1090

1009

1990

1090

5.3
3.5

7.7
4.1
-.4
5.3
6.9
7.3
4.3
5.1
3.6
5.9
32
2.2
6.5
5.6
3.4

t
o

t
o

t
o

t
o

t
o

100.0
3.5
3.0
1.1
.7
4.4
3.9
100.0
3.0
2.0

( ')

( ')

100.0
52
2.7
22
1.7
5.0
42
100.0
42
2.9

100.0
32
2.9
2.6
2.3
5.1
52
100.0
7.0
3.1

100.0
22
3.1
3.0
2.7
52
5.7
100.0
62
2.9

100.0
25
3.4
3.4
29
5.1
5.7
100.0
6.5
29

-16.4
6.5
•2.0
3.3
20.5
17.3
6.0
14.7
9.7
-2.3
14.4

13.5
8.3
16.3
6.9
20.9
27.7
10.8
11.9
7.9
16.0
14.6

112
4.3
■2.7
5.1
7.5
8.5
42
6.4
3.4
102
4.0

4.9
6.2
6.0
3.6
4.1
3.3
1.8
2.6

52
4.4
1.8
6.1
6.9
6.8
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.0
3.9

2.6
1.0
12
5.9

3.6
1.3
3.0
12.1

2.4
1.6
32
12.1

2.9
1.8
4.0
11.6

28
20
42
11.7

5.5
21.3
27.6
41.9

14.0
14.8
26.6
21.9

-2.5
6.1
6.7
3.3

72
6.4
4.6
2.4

3.8
7.0
5.3
4.5

( ')

( ')

( ')

.6

t
o

' Not meaningful.

the Vietnam-war period. State and local purchases
will grow more slowly than GNP, because the
expected low growth in educational purchases is
not likely to be^ compensated for by growth in
other areas. Table 5 shows levels, percent distribu­
tion, and rates of change for the government sector
and for its components over the period studied.

Purchases for space programs are expected to show
a slight drop from the 1976 level as no new major
programs are foreseen. Nuclear purchases are
projected to almost double from the 1973 constant
dollar level with an increased use of nuclear power
as an energy source. The remaining portion of
nondefense purchases are projected to grow at a
2.5-percent annual average rate from 1973 to 1990,
enough to service the increased level of transfers
and grants. This growth in nondefense purchases is
not projected to be large enough to compensate for
the slow defense growth, and so the Federal sector,
will drop as a share of GNP, falling to a level o f 5.5
percent by 1990.

Expect drop in Federal share. The Federal sector is
composed of two major categories, defense and
nondefense purchases. Defense purchases of goods
and services represent the major part of Federal
purchases. In real terms over the period 1952 to
1971, defense purchases remained in a range of $75
billion to $100 billion annually, while, from 1972 to
1976, they dropped to $65 billion.
In 1952, defense purchases were 87.6 percent of
Federal purchases; by 1975 they were 67.7 percent;
and by 1990 they are projected to be 66.7 percent.
Over the 1952-90 period, compensation increased
from 34.4 percent of total defense purchases, to
47.5 percent in 1975, and in 1990 it is projected to
be 39.4 percent. Military force levels are projected
to remain at 2.1 million and civilian defense
employment to remain stable at the 1976 level.
This constant level of real compensation plus an
assumption of real growth of only 2.0 percent per
year in military hardware would result in defense
growing at a much slower rate than GNP. This will
have an important effect on the output growth of
the ordnance, missile, motor vehicle, aircraft,
shipbuilding, and electronics industries.
The growth of the nondefense sector since 1952
has been continuous. However, purchases are
projected to grow more slowly than GNP to 1990,
for a consolidation of existing programs is expect­
ed. It is also assumed that there will be an explicit
effort on the part of the Federal Government to
lower the amount of GNP it lays claim to.



State and local purchases slowdown. The recent
trend of State and local government purchases
relative to GNP has been one of continuous
growth, rising from 8.9 percent of GN P in 1951 to
13.9 percent by 1976. However, due to major
changes in the forces fueling these purchases, a
growth less than that of GN P is projected over the
1976-90 period, causing such government purchas­
es to drop to 9.9 percent of GNP by 1990. The
completion of the interstate highway program, the
assumption of no new major government pro­
grams, and demographic changes are the main
reasons for this slowing growth trend. In 1963
persons 5 through 17 years of age numbered 49
million; in 1973, they numbered 52 million; in
1990, they will total approximately 46 million. The
effect of this change will be to lower the need for
elementary and secondary education expenditures,
the largest component of State and local expendi­
tures. In 1963, educational purchases were 41.2
percent of total State and local purchases; in 1973
they were 42.3 percent, while in 1990, they are
projected to account for 34.1 percent. Along with
52

M ONTHLY LABOR REVIEW December 1978 • B L S Projections to 1990

this drop in primary-education purchases is a
decrease in the need for higher-education purchas­
es. The age group 18 to 24 will be impacted by the
low birth rates of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s,
causing their numbers in 1990 to be lower than in
1973 (25.5 million versus 26.7 million). Therefore,
higher education purchases are projected to de­
cline to 7.4 percent of total State and local
purchases by 1990 down from 1973’s level of 10.1
percent.
Highway purchases are projected to remain
stable as no new programs are envisioned. High­
way construction purchases are projected to
remain at the 1973 level of $17 billion and to be
devoted principally to maintenance and repair and
to some upgrading of intrastate roads.
Purchases for health care and hospitals will
increase from 8.4 percent of State and local
purchases in 1963 to 14.1 percent in 1990, as
governments continue to expand and intensify
health coverage and as those over 65 years old
increase in number. General State and local
government purchases are expected to rise from
the 10.7-percent proportion of GNP in 1963 and
the 12.2-percent share in 1973 to 17.0 percent in
1990, as State and local governments administer
Federal grants programs in the areas of health,
safety, employment, and environment.
Industry structure of demand
Each demand sector accounts for purchases
from a different set of industries—households
consume a different variety of products than do
businesses.
Purchases from the 162 industries of the BLS
input-output matrix are distributed in different
relative amounts. Demand by major industry
sector shows the impact of shifts in both the
relative importance of final demand sectors as well

as shifts in each sector’s distribution of purchases.4
Industries heavily dependent on the purchases of a
demand sector which is growing more slowly than
is GN P will have slower growth than other
industries unless they can substitute their products
for other products being supplied to that sector or
unless they can expand to other areas of demand.
For example, because government expenditures
are expected to increase more slowly than are
consumer expenditures, industries whose products
are mainly consumed by government can expect to
have slower growth than those dependent on
consumers. When viewed over time, changes in the
industry composition of GNP can be seen. Overall,
the industry sector distribution for the projected
period displays little change from trends observ­
able since 1963 (table 6).
The distribution of demand projected to 1990
requires a smaller proportion of agricultural
products, continuing the decline begun in 1963 in
the agriculture sector. Dependent on PCE and on
exports, the agriculture industry is projected to
grow more slowly than total PCE due to the slow
growth in food purchased by households. Also,
food exports are projected to show little growth
from the high levels attained in 1973.
The negative value in table 6 for mining reflects
the expectation that imports will total more than
the rest of final demand. This highlights the
growing U.S. dependence on raw materials from
the rest of the world.
The construction sector is projected to continue
its decline in relative importance as a result of the
decreased amount of purchases by both Federal
and State and local governments. Demand for
manufacturing, dependent on PCE for two-thirds
of its total demand, shows little change over the
1963-90 period, growing more slowly than PCE
but keeping pace with GNP.
Growth in demand for all the remaining indus-

Table 5. Government purchases, actual and projected, selected years 1963-90
Psrcsnt distribution

1

Amount

l

[A m o u n ts in b illio n s o f 1 9 7 2 d o lla rs ]
raise o changi

1963
1963

Total ........................................................................ 197.6
102.2
Federal .......................................................
80.8
Defense............................................................
Compensation .............................................. 38.1
O ther............................................................
42.6
Nondefense ..................................................... 21.4
Compensation ..............................................
9.6
11.9
O ther............................................................
State and local ................................................... 95.4
Education ......................................................... 39.3
Health, welfare, and sanitation .......................
13.3
Safety ..............................................................
7.2
O ther................................................................
35.5




1967

248.4
125.3
98.6
45.9
52.7
26.6
9.9
16.7
123.1
52.5
18.6
8.9
43.1

1973

252.5
96.6
69.7
33.9
35.7
26.9
13.6
13.4
155.9
66.0

31.2
12.0

46.7

1960

295.8
105.2
73.9
32.0
41.9
31.3
17.2
14.1
190.5
76.1
44.6
15.0
54.8

1965

312.3
111.8

74.5
31.4
43.1
37.3
18.8
18.5
200.5
74.2
50.8
16.7
58.9

1990

3265
117.8
78.6
31.0
47.6
39.2
20.3
18.9
208.8
71.1
57.0
17.9
62.8

1963

1967

.

1973

1990

1965

1990

.

1973

1900

1965

1973

1967

Government purchases

1967
1973

1900

1906

I960

1900

5.9
5.2
5.1
4.8
5.5
5.6

0.3
-4.2
-5.6
-4.9
-6.3

2.3

1.1
1.2

0.9

1.5

12

.9

2

1.1
1.1

18

-.3

.2

2.2

-.4
.5
36.

1.2
.7
-.5

2.0
1.0

22

1.0

5.3
-3.6
4.0
3.9
9.0
5.1
1.4

3.4

1.8

.8

5.6

2.9

1.0

t
o

.

.

.

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

79.0
37.3
41.7
11.6
100.0

78.7
36.6
42.1
21.3
7.9
13.3

72.1
35.1
37.0
27.9
14.0
13.8

70.3
30.4
39.8
29.7
16.3
13.4

66.7
28.1
38.5
33.3
16.8
16.5

66.7
26.3
40.4
33.3
17.2
16.0

8.9

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

6.6

41.2
14.0
7.6
37.2

42.6
15.1
7.2
35.0

42.3

39.9
23.4
7.9
28.8

37.0
25.3
8.3
29.4

34.1
27.3

7.5
8.7
5.3
4.9

21.0

9.3

53

20.0

7.7
30.0

8.6

30.1

t
o

t
o

2.3

t
o

2.0

-.5

5.3
3.3
2.3

2.6
2.1

1.4

t
o

to

1.7

1.5
.4

2.4

.8
-.8

1.7
.4
3.6

2.3
1.4
1.3

2.1

2.4
1.7

Table 6. GNP by major industry sector, actual and pro­
jected, selected years 1963-90
[Percent distribution of 1972 dollars]
Sector
Total GNP
.
A griculture
Mining
Construction . . .
M anufacturing ___
Transportation, communications,
public u tilitie s .....................
Trade .........................
Finance, insurance,
and real estate ...............................
Services ...............
O ther services . ,

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

100.0
1.2
-.2
13.1
29.5

100.0
1.0
-.1
11.7
30.4

100.0
1.1
-.2
10.9
31.1

100.0
1.1
-.5
8.9
30.5

100.0
1.0

100.0
.9

5.3
14.6

5.7
14.8

6.1
15.8

12.6
11.1
12.8

12.5
11.1
13.0

13.4
11.9
10.0

1963

-.4

-.4

8.8
30.7

8.2
30.8

6.6
15.8

6.8
16.2

7.2
16.6

14.8
12.4
10.4

15.2
12.6
9.1

15.6
13.0
8.1

try sectors, except other services, is projected to
increase faster than PCE, the largest source of
demand. This acceleration will result in a continu­
ing increase in these industries’ share of GNP.
Lastly, other services, which is composed largely of
compensation of both Federal and State and local
employees, continues its relative decline, as gov­
ernment employment is projected to remain level.

governments at the beginning of the period,
financed by increased Federal grants to State and
local governments. The impact of the increased
compensation would be to raise the level of State
and local purchases above those of the base case.
Also a slight increase in Federal nondefense
purchases was assumed, as the added grants are
serviced.
All of the increased State and local purchases
and employment are expected to be in the areas
other than education. These purchases would be
mainly in the areas of general government, health,
and safety, as governments hire persons in jobs
which require few specialized skills and low levels
of capital expenditures. Gradually, the extra State
and local purchases would induce increased
demand in other sectors of GNP as they flow
through the economy. By 1985, most of the
additional employment over the base case would
be provided by the private sector.
□

The higher employment alternative
BLS has also prepared a set of projections based
on an alternative assumed course for the economy
over the period 1977-90. This alternative course
assumed that the unemployment rate would be at a
lower level each year after 1980, due to explicit
government policies. By 1990, the unemployment
rate was assumed to have reached 4.0 percent, as
opposed to 4.5 percent in the base projections. The
tables on page 41 and 45 of this issue show the
projections data for both the base and alternative
cases.
The lower unemployment rate would be attained
by increased employment by State and local




-------------- FOOTNOTES-------------1 For a detailed discussion o f the supply side o f the economy, see
Norman C. Saunders, “The U.S. economy to 1990: two projections
for growth,” this issue, pp. 37-47.
2 (U.S. Bureau o f the Census), Current Population Reports, Series
P-25, No. 601.
3 See Saunders, “The U.S. Economy to 1990.”
4 Demand by industry is only part o f the picture because an
industry’s output is dependent not only on final demand but also
upon induced or interindustry demand. Total output and employment
by industry, the sum o f induced and final demand, is derived by use o f
the input-output model. The derived output and employment by
industry will be discussed in a subsequent article.

54




Appendix. Supplementary Tables
Table A -1. Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3 to 19 9 0 1
(Millions o f 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
1
2
3

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

Sector Title
D a i r y a n d P o u ltry Produ c t s
Meat and Livestock Pr o d u c t s
Cott o n
Fo od a n d Feed Gr ains
Other Ag r i c u l t u r a l Produ c t s
F o r e s t r y and Fishe ry P r o d u c t s
A g r i c u l t u r a l , Forestry and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Iron a n d F e r r o a l l o y M i n i n g
C o p p e r Ore Mini n g
Ot h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore M i n i n g
Coal M i n i n g
Crude P e t r o l e u m a n d Natural Gas
Sto n e a n d Cla y Min i n g and Q u a r r y i n g
Chemi c a l and F e r t ilizer M i n e r a l s M i n i n g
New and Residential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
New N o n r e s i d e n t i a l Build i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
New P u b l i c U t i lity C o n s t r u c t i o n
New H i g h w a y Constr u c t i o n
All Othe r New Constr u c t i o n
Oil and Gas Well Dr i l l i n g and E x p l o r a t i o n
M a i n t e n a n c e an d Repair C o n s t r u c t i o n
Ordnance
C o m p l e t e Guided M i s s i l e s
M e a t Produ c t s
D a i r y P r o ducts
C a n n e d and Fr ozen Foods
Grain Mi ll Pr o d u c t s
B a k e r y Produ c t s
Sugar
C o n f e c t i o n a r y Produ c t s
A l c o h o l i c B e v e raqes
Sof t D r i n k s an d Flav o r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food Pr o d u c t s
Tobacco Manufacturers
Fa brics, Yarn and Thread M i l l s
Flo or C o v e rings
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Texti le Goods
H o s i e r y and Knit Goods
Apparel
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Fabr i c a t e d T e x t i l e P r o d u c t s
Loggi ng
S a w m i l l s and P l a n i n g M i l l s
Mi llw ork, P l y wood and Ot h e r W o o d P r o d u c t s
W o o d e n Con t a i n e r s
H o u s e h o l d Furniture
Oth e r Fu r n i t u r e and F i x t u r e s
Pap e r P r o ducts
Paperboard
N e w s p a p e r Pr i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
P e r i o d i c a l and Book Print in g, P u b l i s h i n g

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

1678.
557.
882.
1684.
5524.
-56 1.
76.
-532.
-24.
-89.
954.
-1594.
-137.
3.
40282.
28718.
10393.
10938.
7798.
3213.
7178.
2424.
5522.
20817.
11204.
8161.
2808.
7299.
-86.
2363.
6544.
3233.
6317.
7504.
759.
855.
-306 .
751.
17015.
170 1.
129.
-56 1 .
-75.
3.
4181.
2005.
1092.
177.
1797 .
3091 .

1889.
110.
-358.
2463.
5713.
-976.
228.
-628.
-9.
-226.
1040 .
-1083.
-97.
89.
34687.
38159.
14558.
11675.
7783 .
3046 .
7875.
5482.
5253.
22928.
12297.
9721 .
3627 .
7786 .
-52.
2881 .
7405.
4327 .
7242.
7445.
621 .
1356.
-145.
1002.
18857 .
2503.
27 1.
-587.
-39.
36 .
4972.
2722.
1441.
225.
2045.
3693.

1847.
1520.
539.
1758.
7583.
-410.
299.
-304.
20 .
-770.
1 150.
-2809.
-195.
-51.
52615.
37031 .
1787 1 .
9540.
7336 .
2739.
7151.
3992.
2659.
24094.
12912.
12050.
4288.
8003.
198.
3216.
9097 .
5433.
8152.
8457 .
957.
2757.
70.
1474.
23149.
3523.
542.
-559.
141.
14.
6606 .
3500 .
3120 .
60 1.
1895.
5746.

1893.
746.
906.
3808.
8803.
-667.
380.
-36 1.
52.
-745.
1019.
-6703.
-163.
4.
50802.
36128.
19067.
8343.
7588.
4084.
9050 .
4103.
3168.
28843.
12664.
15354.
5673.
8260.
266 .
3407 .
10717.
6933.
10142.
8991.
1389.
3588.
147 .
■ 1930.
29979.
4395.
717.
-770 .
21 .
32.
8029.
4045.
3295.
432.
2112.
6942.

1947.
956.
1046.
4652.
9823.
-521.
446.
-341.
69.
-734.
1169.
-7200.
-135.
6.
66978.
38333.
21464.
8337 .
8416.
4740.
9659.
4491 .
3363.
32316.
13117.
17713.
7030 .
8694.
419.
377 1 .
12923.
8685.
12134.
9510.
1912.
5148.
345.
2443.
37538.
5607 .
868.
-72 1.
310.
35.
10258.
4643.
4576.
558.
2374.
7531.

200 1 .
989.
1230 .
5052.
10554.
-416.
511.
-347.
80.
-785.
1410.
-8890.
-123.
15.
70639.
44224.
25899.
8348.
8870.
5398.
995 1 .
4823.
3774.
33659.
15964.
19696.
8011.
9070 .
523.
4054.
14862.
10176.
13743.
9944.
2380.
6994.
523.
2940 .
45447.
6923.
1077.
-749.
523.
45.
1250 1 .
5389.
5821 .
638.
2681.
8249.




Tabic A -1. Continued—Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1663 to 1990
(Millions o f 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110

Sec t o r Titl e
Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing
I n d u s t r i a l I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
A g r i c u l t u r a l Che m i c a l s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ch emi cal P r o d u c t s
Plastics Materials and Synthetic Rubber
S y n t h e t i c Fibe rs
Drugs
C l e a n i n g a n d Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
P a i n t s a n d A l l i e d Pr o d u c t s
P e t r o l e u m R e f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
T i r e s a n d In ner Tub es
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o ducts
Plastic Products
L e a t h e r T a n n i n g and Ind ustrial L e a ther
F o o t w e a r a n d Other Leather P r o d u c t s
Glass
Cement and Concrete Products
S t r u c t u r a l Clay P r o d u c t s
P o t t e r y a n d R e l a t e d Pr o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and Clay P r o d u c t s
B l a s t F u r n a c e s and Basic Steel P r o d u c t s
Iro n a n d Steel Fou n d r i e s and F o r g i n g s
P r i m a r y Cop p e r and Copper Pr o d u c t s
P r i m a r y A l u m i n u m and Al u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
O t h e r P r i m a r y N o n f e r r o u s Pr o d u c t s
Metal Containers
Heating Apparatus and Plumbing Fixtures
F a b r i c a t e d S t r u ctural Metal
S c r e w M a c h i n e Pr o d u c t s
Metal Stampings
Cutle r y , Hand To o l s and Genera l H a r d w a r e
Other Fabricated Products
Eng ine s, T u r b i n e s and G e n e r a t o r s
Farm Machinery
C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y
M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equipment
Metal Dorking Machinery
Special Industry Machines
G e n e r a l I n d ustrial M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Shop P r o d u c t s
C o m p u t e r s and P e r i pheral Equipment
T y p e w r i t e r s a n d Ot h e r Off i c e E q u i p m e n t
Service Industry Machines
E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equ ip ment
E l e c t r i c a l Industrial Ap p a r a t u s
Household Appliances
E l e c t r i c L i g h t i n g a n d Mir i n g
R a d i o a n d Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
R a d i o a n d C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u ipment
Electronic Components
M i s c e l l a n e o u s El ectrical P r o d u c t s
Motor Vehicles
A i rcraft
S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g a n d Repair
R a i l r o a d E q u i pment
Cycles, B i c y c l e s a n d Pa r t s
O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ ipment
Scientific and Controlling Instruments
M e d i c a l a n d De ntal I n s t r u m e n t s

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

911.
1893.
263.
716.
410 .
115.
2702.
4282.
157.
10070.
1629.
896.
324.
-30.
4121.
528.
-1.
1.
219.
234.
-247.
60 .
231.
34.
-809.
88.
151.
1 156 .
72.
432.
764.
605.
1416.
2882.
4290.
1 167.
3083.
3629.
2791.
190 .
1796.
760.
2143.
20 10.
1208.
3446.
730.
1903.
1457.
7457.
780.
1037.
26706.
12478.
2225.
1443.
124.
853.
1569.
737.

1450.
2039.
468.
1358.
477.
43.
3575.
5794.
133.
12589.
1703.
1273.
616.
-57 .
4381.
636.
58.
19.
155.
228.
-673.
172.
-444.
135.
-1127.
119.
122.
1773.
265.
703.
964.
1067 .
2150.
4298.
5203.
1677 .
4833.
4770.
3347.
427.
3275.
1213.
3222.
2798.
1944.
4262.
1054.
3405.
2287 .
9459.
1214.
1437.
31466.
17314.
3285.
2309.
216.
1718.
1987.
1189.

2268.
2637.
522.
1230.
1 142.
384.
5817.
8695.
410.
15953.
2490.
1310.
1373.
8.
4420.
1086.
345.
17.
314.
443.
-707.
182.
206 .
686.
- 1028.
270 .
302.
2517.
196.
1145.
1302.
10 15.
2774.
5299.
7378.
2237.
4628.
5316.
3684.
541.
6352.
1306.
4353.
3795.
2265.
6640 .
1510.
5040.
3070.
8534.
1688.
1888.
50521.
12989.
4502.
1972.
711.
5131.
2009.
1817.

2144.
3389.
550.
1384.
1109.
418.
7930.
9206.
440.
16918.
2688.
1709.
1090 .
-21.
4463.
1 197.
85.
-5.
344.
331.
-2037.
467.
225.
555.
-1007.
141.
266.
3412.
65.
1540.
1485.
1116.
3172.
6830.
8802.
2938.
5667.
5856.
4704.
684.
11481.
1975.
5083.
4477.
2560.
8595.
1567.
7333.
3989.
9892.
2380.
2493.
60526.
15252.
6878.
2324.
1052.
5059.
2492.
2483.

2373.
4166.
621.
1643.
1290.
608.
10070.
12328.
524.
19396.
2763.
1864.
1299.
-14.
4639.
1587 .
132.
-3.
472.
421.
-2356.
594.
420.
752.
-956.
178.
325.
3995.
60.
1873.
1996.
1214.
3791.
8192.
1 1259.
3505.
7 168.
7175.
5623.
673.
15135.
2265.
6077.
5325.
2996.
11157.
1935.
9557.
4767.
10383.
3105.
2970.
73172.
17692.
7481.
2943.
1365.'
7 129.
2840.
2971 .

2488.
4841.
650.
1926.
1485.
793.
12452.
16035.
592.
20979.
2688.
1994.
1423.
-5.
4572.
2007 .
116.
-7.
591.
507.
-3109.
684.
516.
896.
-1006.
182.
377.
4657.
-1.
2241.
2550.
1223.
4500.
9950.
13904.
4198.
8667.
8901 .
6597.
643.
20170.
2521.
7193.
6476.
3485.
13894.
2275.
12111.
5850.
1 1559.
3959.
3308.
87022.
20860.
8836.
3692.
1927.
8376.
3210.
3543.




Table A -1. Continued—Gross national product, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
1 11
1 12
1 13
1 14
115
116
1 17
118
1 19
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
123
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
152
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
16 1
162

Sector Title
Opti ca l and O p h t h a l m i c Equ i p m e n t
P h o t o g r a p h i c Eq uip ment and S u p p l i e s
Mat ch es* C l o c k s and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e
Musi c a l I n s t r u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g G o o d s
Other M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s
Railroad Transportation
Local Transit an d I n t e r c i t y Bus e s
Truck Trans p o r t a t i o n
M a t e r Trans p o r t a t i o n
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Servi c e s
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Except Ra d i o a n d Tv
Radi o and Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g
Electric U t i l i t i e s
Ga s U t i 1 i t ies
Ma t e r and S a n i t a r y S e r v i c e s
M h o l e s a l e Trade
Reta il Trade
Bank ing
Cr edit A g e n c i e s and Fin a n c i a l B r o k e r s
Insurance
Owne r O c c u p i e d Real Est a t e
Real Es tate
H o t e l s and Lodg i n g Plac e s
Personal and Repa i r S e r v i c e s
Barb e r and Bea u t y Shops
M i s c e l l a n e o u s B u s iness S e r v i c e s
Adve rt i si ng
Miscellaneous Professional Services
A u t o m o b i l e Repair
M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s
Amu s e m e n t and Recr e a t i o n S e r v i c e s
Docto rs ' and De ntists' S e r v i c e s
Hospi tals
Oth e r Medical S e r vices
Educational Services
Nonprofit Organizations
Po st Off i c e
Other Federal E n t e r p r i s e s
Other State a n d Local G o v e r n m e n t
D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Imports
B u s i n e s s Travel, E n t e rnainment, a n d G i f t s
Offi c e Suppl i e s
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d
G o v e r n m e n t In dustry
Re st of M o r l d Industry
Households
Inv e n t o r y Va l u a t i o n A d j u s t m e n t

1963
396.
973.
288.
1143.
2297.
1192.
4058.
4198.
6066.
3119.
2521.
228.
195.
8056.
47.
8275.
5062.
2372.
35178.
85789.
9237 .
5190.
13728.
50347.
25723.
3374.
9379.
3935.
4129.
222.
5534.
9172.
2410.
5807.
14450.
11150.
40 13.
8300.
10703.
1914.
105.
805.
-4829.
-343.
485.
-269.
100378.
2241.
6431 .
-251 .

1967
637.
2115.
437.
1649.
2554.
1532.
4878.
4458.
7685.
3545.
5192.
331.
142.
1 1595.
10.
1079 1 .
5965.
2693.
44686.
104613.
10288.
8666.
16525.
60500.
30113.
4499.
10663.
4515.
5635.
252.
6834.
11073.
2081.
5832.
18165.
14786.
4775.
107 18.
12802.
2512.
121.
1021.
-4635.
-432.
630 .
-863.
122065.
5767.
6442.
-2127.

1973
849.
3886.
521.
2212.
40 12.
1873.
6033.
4050.
9051 .
4660 .
6055.
497.
178.
18274.
21.
15987.
7087.
3389.
59725.
135178.
14859.
7868.
21617.
80558.
40345.
5220.
10891.
3702.
7457.
320.
8194.
15017.
2918.
7277.
25249.
25454.
7795.
12652.
14857.
2907 .
103.
1429.
-5470 .
-464.
770 .
-1721 .
134758.
5807 .
5030 .
-19428.

1980
1316.
5364.
687 .
290 1 .
5334.
2228.
7349.
4799.
10683.
5235.
8553.
567 .
213.
28454.
26 .
21605.
8069.
4128.
72752.
166544.
21253.
10486.
27402.
110692.
53108.
6521 .
11125.
3727 .
10254.
424.
10630.
19705.
3808.
8730.
34158.
35880.
10420.
14027.
17515.
3287.
98.
2209.
-6010.
-492.
1233.
-1643.
154298.
3841.
3643.
-2898.

1985
1538.
6823.
973.
3799.
7006 .
2902.
8696.
4972.
12447.
5916.
1 1268.
679.
239.
38704.
20.
25734.
8350.
5055.
86802.
205409.
26932.
12293.
33502.
136085.
65263.
8574.
11760.
3930 .
1 1877.
506.
12275.
24870.
4595.
10030.
42795.
48585.
12265.
15590..
19813.
3498.
91.
2739.
-5932.
-493.
1281.
-973.
162760.
2342.
3289.
-3773.

1990
1772.
8747.
1268.
4823.
8813.
3658.
10258.
5177.
14423.
6883.
14658.
760 .
272.
52229.
15.
31307.
8923.
6049.
102095.
247738.
32677.
14188.
40513.
164546.
77222.
10696.
12494.
4143.
13309.
602.
14001.
30570.
5390.
11425.
53794.
65058.
14626.
16573.
22204.
3692.
123.
3052.
-6763.
-524.
1264.
957.
169406.
1219.
2971.
-3735.




Table A -2. Personal consumption expenditures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
1
2
4
5
6
7
11
13
14
22
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
43
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
65
66
67

Sector Titl e
D a i r y a n d Poul t r y P r o ducts
M e a t a n d Li ves tock Produ c t s
F o o d a n d Feed Grains
O t h e r A g r i c u l t u r a l Produ c t s
F o r e s t r y an d Fishery Pro ducts
A g r i c u l t u r a l , F o r e s t r y and Fish e r y S e r v i c e s
Coal M i n i n g
S t o n e a n d Clay M i n i n g a n d Q u a r r y i n g
C h e m i c a l and F e r t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g
Ordnance
Meat Products
Dairy Products
C a n n e d a n d Frozen Foo ds
G r a i n Mill Pr o d u c t s
Bakery Products
Sugar
Confectionary Products
A l c o h o l i c B e v e rages
S o f t D r i n k s an d Flav o r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o ducts
Tobacco Manufacturers
Fabrics, Ya rn and T h r e a d Mills
Floor Coverings
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Text i l e Good s
H o s i e r y a n d Knit Goods
Apparel
M i s c e l l a n e o u s F a b r i c a t e d T e x tile P r o d u c t s
Loggi ng
M i l l w o r k , P l y w o o d and Othe r W o o d P r o d u c t s
H o u s e h o l d Furniture
O t h e r F u r n i t u r e and Fixt ur es
Paper Products
Paperboard
Newspaper Printing and Publishing
P e r i o d i c a l and Book Pri nting, P u b l i s h i n g
Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing
I n d u s t r i a l Inorganic and Orga n i c C h e m i c a l s
Agricultural Chemicals
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o ducts
Plastics Materials and Synthetic Rubber
Drugs
C l e a n i n g and Toil et P r e p a r a t i o n s
P a i n t s a n d Alli e d P r o d u c t s
P e t r o l e u m R e f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
T i r e s a n d Inner Tubes
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o ducts
P l a s t i c Pr o d u c t s
F o o t w e a r and Other L e a ther P r o d u c t s
Glass
C e m e n t a n d Co n c r e t e P r o ducts

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

1645.
172.
3.
4352.
678.
21.
304.
18.
2.
233.
207 81 .
10715.
8033.
2250.
7228.
930 .
2384.
6950 .
3132.
5578.
6890 .
796 .
804.
131.
732.
17213.
1556.
50.
242.
3821.
228.
1589.
89.
1788.
2247.
592.
147.
46.
283.
9.
2013.
3980.
28.
9004.
1392.
734.
155.
4364.
375.
3.

1851.
190.
247.
4644.
620 .
168.
221.
5.
3.
406 .
23024.
11451.
9365.
2948.
7698.
956 .
2894.
7926.
4206.
6623.
6545.
720 .
1269.
141.
959.
19213.
2047.
30.
304.
4520.
278.
1782.
86.
2036.
2509.
808.
192.
58.
300 .
15.
26 13.
5318.
61.
10924.
1483.
911.
366.
4760.
523.
3.

1740 .
184.
246.
5228.
850.
238.
265.
7.
4.
358.
23717.
12093.
1 1085.
3527.
7816.
1025.
3105.
9380.
5133.
7015.
7100.
759.
2445.
141.
1411.
24273.
3084.
34.
30 1.
5701.
446.
2286.
109.
1891.
3974.
875.
280.
85.
402.
23.
3747.
7681 .
89.
14628.
2410.
1046 .
717.
5164.
751.
6.

1766.
159.
243.
6051
899.
305.
241
8.
4.
508.
28611.
12474.
14775.
4726.
8081
1026.
3395.
11344.
6550
8696
7843
969.
3284
167.
1844.
31712.
4051.
31
374.
7196
563
2492
114
2099
4670
958
295
88
445
30
507 1
8299
92
15691.
2932
1407
842
5828
892
7.

1800 .
159.
245.
6685.
944.
368.
27 1 .
11 .
4.
699.
31703.
12932.
17008.
5994.
8503.
1047.
3730 .
13442.
8181.
10427.
8270 .
1234.
4734.
229.
2293.
39421.
5150.
35.
519.
9274.
767.
3287.
157.
2365.
5444.
1099.
408.
122.
523.
37.
6368.
11317.
128.
18938.
3306 .
1648.
1054.
6552.
1149.
10.

1848.
160.
249.
7325.
1073.
436 .
308.
14.
5.
913.
33343.
15830.
18962.
6935.
8873.
1110.
4009.
15396.
9589.
1 1763.
8587.
1536.
6469.
301.
2788.
47926.
6384.
39.
691.
11399.
999.
4186.
207.
2687.
6344.
1251.
536.
160.
604.
46.
7867.
14978.
168.
20970.
3681 .
1925.
1293.
7340.
1443.
13.




Table A-2. Continued-Personal consumption expenditures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
69
70
71
73
74
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
87
88
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
100
101
102
103
104
105
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137

Sec-tor Title
P o t t e r y and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s
Blas t Furna c e s and Ba s i c Steel P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y Copper and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y Aluminum a n d A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
H e a t i n g Ap p a r a t u s a n d P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s
F a b r i c a t e d Structural Meta l
Sc r e w M a c h i n e P r o d u c t s
Met al Sta m p i n g s
Cu tlery, Ha nd Too ls a n d General H a r d w a r e
Other Fabricated P r o d u c t s
Engines, Turbi n e s a n d G e n e r a t o r s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
Met al W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y
Sp ecial In dus tr y M a c h i n e s
M a c h i n e Sh op Pr o d u c t s
C o m p u t e r s and Per i p h e r a l Equ i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s an d Ot h e r O f f i c e Equ i p m e n t
S e r v i c e Indus tr y M a c h i n e s
Elect r i c Tra n s m i s s i o n Equ i p m e n t
Electrical Indus tr ial A p p a r a t u s
H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s
Elect r i c Li ghting a n d W i r i n g
Radi o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
Radi o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Eq u i p m e n t
Ele c t r o n i c Comp o n e n t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ele ct rical P r o d u c t s
Mot o r V e h icles
Aircraft
Sh ip and Boat B u i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r
Cycles, Bic ycl es a n d Par t s
Oth er T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ i p m e n t
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
Medi c a l and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
Op tical and O p h t h a l m i c Equ i p m e n t
P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment and S u p p l i e s
Wa tch es , Clocks a n d Cloc k O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y an d S i l v e r w a r e
Musical Instr u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g Goods
Other M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s
Railroad Transportation
Local Tr ansit and I n t e r c i t y Bu s e s
Tru ck Tran s p o r t a t i o n
W a t e r Tran s p o r t a t i o n
Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Se r v i c e s
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc ept Ra d i o a n d Tv
Electric U t i l ities
Gas Uti l i t i e s
W a t e r and Sa n i t a r y S e r v i c e s
W h o l e s a l e Tr ade
Reta i1 T rade
B a n king
Credit A g e n c i e s a n d F i n a ncial B r o k e r s
I n s u rance
Owner Oc c u p i e d Real Estate
Real Esta te
H o t e l s and Lodgi ng Pla c e s
Pe rso nal and Repair S e r v i c e s

1963
287.
143.
14.
4.
13.
82.
18.
41.
333.
578.
153.
154.
13.
92.
25.
3.
0.
142.
373.
9.
16.
2573.
530 .
1678.
82.
172.
525.
15560.
60.
267.
227.
137.
22.
156.
275.
448.
388.
1322.
2068.
880.
2618.
3818.
3689.
808.
1941.
167.
25.
6249.
7066 .
4855.
2351 .
26209.
82791.
7517.
5049.
13389.
50347.
21524.
2659.
9295.

1967
305.
164.
5.
8.
10.
55.
21.
52.
416.
705.
202.
167.
42.
95.
24.
5.
0.
149.
450.
12.
19.
3447.
668.
3503.
63.
165.
764.
19145.
60.
479.
364.
455.
30.
207 .
407.
780 .
521.
1867.
2413.
1131.
2881.
3846 .
4213.
661.
3578.
230.
104.
8920.
8949.
5723.
2580.
31827.
101442.
8527.
8516.
16020.
60500.
25583.
3666.
10606.

1973
518.
204.
7.
12.
13.
86.
112.
79.
494.
956.
258.
244.
124.
72.
65.
8.
0.
245.
704.
15.
35.
5427.
960 .
6513.
62.
220.
969.
31003.
64.
808.
1502.
1176.
41.
260.
402.
1261.
777.
2318.
3788.
1284.
3372.
3136.
5191.
842.
4784.
308.
123.
14201.
13200.
6448.
3266.
40499.
130357.
11922.
7538.
20613.
80558.
33241.
4765.
10786.

1980
602.

212.
8.

16.
15.
116.
141.
104.
564.
1207.
304.
350 .
169.
98.
88.
9.
216.
365.
941.
16.
48.
7267.
1145.
10083.
96.
340 .
1230.
39629.
92.
1160.
2155.
1340 .
53.
339.
488.
1736.
1022.
3047.
5246.
1659.
3967 .
3469.
6081.
970 .
6700 .
330.
145.
22620.
17967.
7042.
4038.
48697.
161287.
17283.
10027.
25945.
110692.
43349.
6225.
10937.

1985
758.
263.
9.
21.
19.
153.
200 .
131.
692.
1668.
408.
485.
244.
141.
127.
11.
264.
532.
1236.
22.
69.
9590 .
1574.
13043.
125.
439.
1498.
50243.
128.
1608.
2987 .
1848.
72.
418.
587.
2331.
1350 .
3900 .
6982.
2214.
4729.
3760 .
7 170 .
1208.
8940 .
398.
162.
31933.
22477.
7351 .
5024.
59085.
197894.
22185.
1 1776 .
31943.
136085.
53286.
7946 .
1 1564.

1990
934.
323.
11.
27.
23.
194.
270.
160.
832.
2221.
529.
637.
333.
193.
174.
12.
318.
732.
1559.
29.
94.
12142.
2072.
16770.
160.
565.
1794.
63332.
167.
2112.
3922.
2586.
95.
509.
705.
3004.
1735.
4887.
8966.
286 1.
5560 .
4082.
8332.
1430 .
11441.
441.
178.
44444.
28256.
7957.
6087.
69345.
237944.
27454.
13644.
38767.
164546.
64436.
9842.
12291.




Table A -2. Continued—Personal consumption expenditures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.

Sector Titl e

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
152
154
155
158
160
16 1

B a r b e r and Beau t y Shops
Miscellaneous Business Services
Ad verti si ng
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profes s i o n a l S e r v i c e s
A u t o m o b i l e Repair
M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s
A m u s e m e n t a n d R e c r eation S e r v i c e s
D o c t o r s ’ and Den tis ts ' S e r v i c e s
Hospi tal s
Other Medical Services
Educational Services
Nonprofit Organizations
P o s t Office
O t h e r Fede ra l Enter p r i s e s
O t h e r S t a t e an d Local G o v e r n m e n t
D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Imports
Scrap, Used, a n d S e c o n d h a n d
R e s t of U o r l d I n d ustry
Households

3935.
6 18.
165.
4233.
8998.
1801.
5743.
14073.
10304.
3445.
6556.
9997.
1467.
9.
761.
3958.
176 1.
-1815.
6431.

4515.
1342.
179.
4952.
10810.
1598.
6213.
17436.
13248.
3539.
8664.
1 186 1.
1781.
0.
982.
5600 .
2639.
-2587.
6442.

3702.
1864.
193.
6116.
14652.
1887.
7233.
23429.
22262.
4625.
10689.
14113.
1975.
0.
1372.
6023.
3165.
-3750.
5030.

3727.
2417.
232.
7893.
19180.
2862.
8690.
31407.
31382.
5984.
12429.
16603.
2112.
0.
1613.
6670.
4099.
-6059.
3643.

3930.
2932.
288.
9229.
24322.
3574.
10018.
39889.
43597.
7560.
13756.
18775.
2232.
0.
1991.
8747.
5343.
-8407.
3289.

4143.
3481.
355.
10655.
30010.
4310.
11421.
50608.
59333.
9520.
14756.
21098.
2351.
0.
2290.
11055.
6906.
-11953.
297 1 .




Table A-3. Personal consumption expenditures, durables, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
22
35
36
37
40
43
45
46
50
51
54
58
61
62
63
65
66
67
69
70
73
74
77
78
80
81
82
83
84
87
88
90
91
92
93
95
96
97
98
100
10 1
102
103
104
105
107
108
109
110
1 11
112
113
114
1 15
116
117
119
120
121
129
130
137
139
158

Sector T i t l e
Ordnance
Fabrics, Yar n and T h r e a d M i l l s
Floor Cov e r i n g s
Miscellaneous Textile Goods
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Mi llw ork, Pl ywood a n d O t h e r M o o d P r o d u c t s
H o u s e h o l d Fu rni ture
Other F u r n iture a n d F i x t u r e s
P e r iodical and Book Printing, P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s
C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
Tires and Inner Tu b e s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s
P l a s t i c Products
Footw e a r and Othe r L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s
Glas s
Ce ment and Co n c r e t e P r o d u c t s
P o t t e r y and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ston e a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y Copp er and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y Alumi n u m a n d A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
H e a t i n g Apparatus a n d P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s
F a b r i c a t e d Structural Meta l
Meta l St a m p i n g s
Cu tlery, Han d Tools a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e
Othe r F a b ricated P r o d u c t s
Engines, Tu rbines a n d G e n e r a t o r s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
Met al W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y
Sp eci al In dustry M a c h i n e s
M a c h i n e Shop Pr o d u c t s
C o m p u t e r s and P e r i pheral E q u i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Ot h e r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e Ind ust ry M a c h i n e s
El ect rical Industrial A p p a r a t u s
H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s
E l e c t r i c Lig hti ng a n d W i r i n g
Rad io and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
Rad io and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
Elec t r o n i c Comp o n e n t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s
Mot o r V e h icles
Ai rcraft
Sh ip and Boat B u i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r
Cycles, Bicycles a n d Pa r t s
Oth er T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
Medical an d Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
Op tic al an d O p h t h a l m i c E q u i p m e n t
P h o t o g r a p h i c E q u ipment a n d S u p p l i e s
Wat che s, Clocks and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e
Musical I n s t ruments a n d S p o r t i n g Go o d s
Oth er M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s
Railroad Transportation
Truck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Wat e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n
W h o l e s a l e Tra de
R e t a i 1 Tra de
Personal an d Repair S e r v i c e s
Miscellaneous Business Services
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d

1963

1967

1973

94.
58.
804.
60.
252.
242.
3821.
228.
1363.
36.
124.
29.
1392.
54.
139.
77.
359.
3.
287.
12.
4.
13.
82.
18.
333.
327.
108.
154.
13.
92.
25.
3.

243.
99.
1269.
58.
247.
304.
4520.
278.
1558.
7 1.
1 12.
35.
1483.
182.
305.
78.
500 .
3.
305.
12.
8.
10.
55.
21.
416.
464.
151.
167.
42.
95.
24.
5.

296.
165.
2445.
37.
353.
30 1.
570 1 .
446.
1855.
84.
171.
33.
2410.
163.
631.
134.
7 16.
6.
518.
15.
12.
13.
86 .
112.
494.
736.
193.
244.
124.
72.
65.
8.

0

.

142.
373.
16.
2431.
264.
1678.
82.
172.
453.
15560.
60.
267.
227.
137.
12.
64.
275.
192.
388.
1322.
652.
277.
460 .
543.
8.
8.
3101.
19059.
6.
0

.

1858.

0

.

149.
450.
19.
3289.
278.
3503.
63.
165.
659.
19145.
60 .
479.
364.
455.
21.
75.
407 .
316.
521.
1867.
787.
343.
600 .
656 .
13.
45.
4158.
24763.
7.
188.
2719.

0

1980

.

245.
704.
35.
5223.
459.
6513.
62.
220.
868.
31003.
64.
808.
1502.
1176.
29.
70.
402.
470 .
777.
2318.
1288.
435.
955.
1069.
19.
66.
6858.
35987.
13.
229.
3298.

1985

1990

425.
208.
3284.
50.
468.
374.
7196.
563.
2286.
106.
208.
40.
2932.
210.
722.
185.
845.
7.
602.
18.
16.
15.
116.
141.
564.
96 1.
236 .
350.
169.
98.
88.
9.
216.
365.
941.
48.
7037.
577.
10083.
96.
340.
1116.
39629.
92.
1160.
2155.
1340.
36.
82.
488.
675.
1022.
3047.
1890.
629.
1247.
1399.
26.
91.
9191.
47229.
18.
329.
4259.

589.
294.
4734.
72.
651.
519.
9274.
767 .
2731.
150 .
242.
46.
3306 .
278.
887.
257.
1090 .
10.
758.
25.
21.
19.
153.
200 .
692.
1337.
314.
485.
244.
141.
127.
11.
264.
532.
1236.
69.
9282.
801.
13043.
125.
439.
1343.
50243.
128.
1608.
2987.
1848.
51.
95.
587 .
936.
1350 .
3900 .
2569.
907 .
1609.
1807 .
34.
117.
11931.
61019.
25.
456.
5532.

774.
398.
6469.
99.
864.
691.
1 1399.
999.
3241.
202.
276.
53.
3681.
355.
1068.
340.
137 1.
13.
934.
33.
27.
23.
194.
270.
832.
1780.
406.
637.
333.
193.
174.
12.
318.
732.
1559.
94.
11734.
1069.
16770.
160.
565.
1592.
63332.
167.
2112.
3922.
2586.
69
110.
705.
1228.
1735.
4887.
3354.
1236.
2030 .
2288.
43.
147.
15139.
77113.
33.
599:
7129.




Table A -4. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurables, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
1
4
5
6
7
11
13
14
22
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
37
38
39
40
41
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
57
58
59
60
62
63
65
66
70
71
79
81
82
94
96

Sec t o r Title
D a i r y and P o u l t r y Products
F o o d and Fe ed Grains
O t h e r Agricu l t u r a l P r o ducts
F o r e s t r y and F i s hery Pr o d u c t s
A g r i c u l t u r a l * Fores t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Coa l M i n i n g
S t o n e a n d Cl ay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g
C h e m i c a l and Fer t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g
Ordnance
M e a t Pr o d u c t s
D a i r y Produ c t s
C a n n e d and Fr ozen Foo ds
G r a i n Mill Pr o d u c t s
B a k e r y P r o ducts
Sugar
C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s
A l c o h o l i c Bev e r a g e s
Soft Drinks and Fla vorings
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food Products
Tobacco Manufacturers
Fabri cs * Yarn a n d Thread M i l l s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Text i l e Goo ds
H o s i e r y and Knit Good s
Apparel
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Fabr i c a t e d T e x t i l e P r o d u c t s
Logging
P a p e r P r o ducts
Paperboard
N e w s p a p e r P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
P e r i o d i c a l and Book Pri nting* P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
Indu s t r i a l I n o rganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
Agricultural Chemicals
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s
P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c R u b b e r
Drugs
C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
P a i n t s and A l l i e d Products
P e t r o l e u m R e f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber Pr o d u c t s
P l a s t i c Pr o d u c t s
F o o t w e a r a n d Other Leathe r P r o d u c t s
Glass
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s
B l a s t Furnaces and Basi c Steel P r o d u c t s
S c r e w M a c h i n e Pr o d u c t s
Cu tlery* Hand Tools a n d G e n e r a l H a r d w a r e
O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d Pro du cts
E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n E q u i pment
Household Appliances

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

1645.
3.
4352.
678.
21.
304.
18.
2.
139.
20781.
10715.
8033.
2250.
7228.
930 .
2384.
6950.
3132.
5578.
6890.
738.
71.
732.
17213.
1304.
50.
1589.
89.
1788.
879.
556.
147.
46.
159.
9.
2013.
3951 .
28.
9004.
679.
17.
4287.
17.
56.
14.
41.
251.
45.
9.
141.

1851.
247.
4644.
620.
132.
221.
5.
3.
163.
23024.
11451.
9365.
2948.
7698.
956.
2894.
7926 .
4206.
6623.
6545.
621.
83.
959.
19213.
1800.
30.
1782.
86.
2036.
951.
737.
192.
58.
188.
15.
2613.
5284.
61.
10924.
729.
6 1.
4683.
23.
66.
5.
52.
240.
51.
12.
158.

1740.
246.
5228.
850.
204.
265.
7.
4.
62.
23717.
12093.
11085.
3527.
7816.
1025.
3105.
9380 .
5133.
70 15.
7100.
594.
104.
1411.
24273.
2731.
34.
2286.
109.
1891.
2119.
791.
280 .
85.
231.
23.
3747.
7649.
89.
14628.
883.
86.
5029.
36.
96 .
7.
79.
221.
65.
15.
204.

1766.
243.
6051.
899.
275.
241.
8.
4.
83.
28611.
12474.
14775.
4726.
8081.
1026 .
3395.
11344.
6550.
8696.
7843.
76 1.
117.
1844.
31712.
3583.
31.
2492.
114.
2099.
2384.
852.
295.
88.
238.
30.
5071 .
8259.
92.
15691.
1197.
120.
5643.
47.
100.
8.
104.
246.
68.
16.
230.

1800.
245.
6685.
944.
339.
271.
11.
4.
110.
31703.
12932.
17008.
5994.
8503.
1047.
3730.
13442.
8181.
10427.
8270.
940 .
157.
2293.
39421.
4499.
35.
3287.
157.
2365.
27 13.
949.
408.
122.
281.
37.
6368.
1 1270.
128.
18938.
137 1.
167.
6295.
59.
139.
9.
131.
332.
94.
22.
308*.

1848.
249.
7325.
1073.
407.
308.
14.
5.
139.
33343.
15830.
18962.
6935.
8873.
1110.
4009.
15396.
9589.
1 1763.
8587.
1139.
202.
2788.
47926.
5520.
39.
4186.
207.
2687.
3103.
1048.
536.
160.
329.
46.
7867.
14925.
168.
20970.
1570.
225.
7000 .
72.
182.
11.
160.
441.
123.
29.
/ 408.




Table A-4. Continued—Personal consumption expenditures, nondurables, selected historical and projected years, 1 9 6 3 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Pro j e c t e d
No.
97
102
109
110
1 12
115
1 16
1 17
119
120
121
122
128
129
130
152
155
158
160

Secto r Ti t l e
El e c t r i c L i g hting a n d W i r i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment and S u p p l i e s
Musical I n s t ruments a n d S p o r t i n g Goo d s
Other M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s
Railroad Transportation
Tru ck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
W a t e r and Sanit a r y S e r v i c e s
W h o l e s a l e Trade
Reta il Tra de
Other Fe deral E n t e r p r i s e s
D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Impo r t s
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d
Re st of W o r l d I n d ustry

1963

1967

266.
71.
10 .
92.
256.
1A 17.
603.
1537.
2562.
370 .
17.
167.
50.
23090.
63654.
9.
1181.
-97.
-171.

390 .
105.
9.
133.
464.
1626.
789.
1679.
2735.
372.
66 .
230 .
62.
27653.
76545.
0 .

1782.
-88.
-281.

1973
50 1.
102.
13.
190.
791.
2500.
849.
1980.
3275.
484.
83.
308.
74.
33623.
94231.
0 .

1279.
-142.
-205.

1980
568.
1 13.
17.
257.
106 1.
3356.
1030 .
2284.
3824.
532.
107.
330.
67.
39488.
113924.
0 .

914.
-169.
-214.

1985
772.
155.
21.
323.
1396 .
4412.
1307 .
2666.
4481.
636.
130.
398.
76.
47136.
136736.
0 .

975.
-200 .
-214.

1990
1004.
202.
26.
399.
1775.
5612.
1626.
3056 .
5137.
712.
156.
441.
86.
54186.
160684.
0 .

1062.
-235.
-214.




Table A -5. Personal consumption expenditures, services, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions o f 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
2
7
50
70
117
1 18
1 19
120
121
123
124
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140'
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
154
155
158
160
161

Sector Title
M e a t and Live sto ck P r o ducts
Agricul t u r a l , Forestry and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
P e r i o d i c a l an d Book Pri nting, P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and C l a y P r o d u c t s
R a i l r o a d Tran s p o r t a t i o n
Loc al Trans it and Intercity Bu s e s
Truck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S e r vices
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exce pt Radio a n d Tv
E l e c t r i c U t i lities
Gas Utilities
W a t e r and Sanit a r y Servi c e s
W h o l e s a l e Tra de
R e t a i1 T rade
Ba nk ing
C r e d i t Ag e n c i e s and Finan ci al B r o k e r s
Insurance
O w n e r Oc c u p i e d Real Est ate
Rea l Est at e
H o t e l s and Lodging Pla ces
P e r s o n a l an d Repair Services
B a r b e r and Beauty Sho ps
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Bu s i n e s s Se r v i c e s
Ad verti si ng
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profes s i o n a l S e r v i c e s
A u t o m o b i l e Repai r
M o t i o n Pictures
A m u s e m e n t an d Recreation S e r v i c e s
Do ctors' and Dentis ts * Servi c e s
Hospitals
O t h e r Medic al Se r v i c e s
Educ a t i o n a l S e r vices
Nonprofit Organizations
Post Of fice
O t h e r Sta te and Local Gove r n m e n t
D i r e c t l y All o c a t e d Imp or ts
Scr ap , Used, and S e c o n d h a n d
Re s t of W o r l d I n d ustry
Households

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

172.
0.
5.
75.
622.
3818.
584.
431.
1916 .
25.
6249.
7066 .
4855.
230 1 .
18.
78.
7517.
5049.
13389.
50347.
21524.
2659.
9289.
3935.
6 18.
165.
4233.
8998.
180 1.
5743.
14073.
10304.
3445.
6556.
9997.
1467.
761 .
2777.
0.
-1644.
6431.

190 .
36.
0.
86 .
603.
3846 .
822.
275.
3467.
104 .
8920 .
8949.
5723.
2518.
16 .
135.
8527 .
8516.
16020.
60500.
25583.
3666.
10598.
4515.
1 154.
179.
4952.
10810.
1598.
6213.
17436.
13248.
3539.
8664.
11861.
1781 .
982.
3818.
8.
-2306.
6442.

184.
35.
0.
93.
437.
3136.
848.
339.
4635.
123.
1420 1 .
13200.
6448.
3192.
18.
139.
11922.
7538.
20613.
80558.
3324 1 .
4765.
10774.
3702.
1635.
193.
6 116.
14652.
1887.
7233.
23429.
22262.
4625.
10689.
14113.
1975.
1372.
4745.
9.
-3545.
5030 .

159.
29.
0.
94.
436.
3469.
859.
413.
6503.
145.
22620.
17967.
7042.
397 1 .
17.
134.
17283.
10027.
25945.
110692.
43349.
6225.
10919.
3727.
2088.
232.
7893.
19180.
2862.
8690.
31407.
31382.
5984.
12429.
16603.
2112.
16 13.
5756.
9.
-5845.
3643.

159.
29.
0.
100.
454.
3760.
882.
538.
8693.
162.
31933.
22477.
7351 .
4948.
18.
139.
22185.
1 1776.
31943.
136085.
53286.
7946.
1 1539.
3930.
2475.
288.
9229.
24322.
3574.
100 18.
39889.
43597.
7560.
13756.
18775.
2232.
1991.
7772.
1 1.
-8193.
3289.

160.
29.
0.
107 .
474.
4082.
907.
675.
11138.
178.
44444.
28256.
7957.
600 1 .
20.
146.
27454.
13644.
38767.
164546.
64436.
9842.
12258.
4143.
2882.
355.
10655.
30010.
4310.
11421.
50608.
59333.
9520.
14756.
21098.
2351.
2290.
9994.
13.
-11739.
2971.




Table A-6. Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

_____________________________________________________

Projected
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
19
20
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53

Sector T i t l e
Da i r y and P o u l t r y P r o d u c t s
Meat and Li ves tock P r o d u c t s
Co tton
Fo od and Fe ed Gra i n s
Other Agricu l t u r a l P r o d u c t s
F o r e s t r y and Fish e r y P r o d u c t s
Iron and Ferr o a l l o y M i n i n g
C o p p e r Ore Min i n g
Ot h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore M i n i n g
Coal M i n i n g
C r u d e P e t roleum and N a t ural Gas
Sto n e and Clay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g
Ch emi cal and F e r t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g
New and Residential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
New Nonr e s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
New Public Util i t y C o n s t r u c t i o n
All Other New C o n s t r u c t i o n
Oil and Gas Well D r i l l i n g a n d E x p l o r a t i o n
Ordnance
C o m p l e t e Guid ed M i s s i l e s
Meat P r o ducts
Da i r y Produ c t s
C a n n e d an d Fr ozen Foods
Grai n Mill Pr o d u c t s
B a k e r y Pr odu cts
Suga r
Confectionary Products
A l c o h o l i c Bev e r a g e s
Sof t Drinks and F l a v o r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Foo d P r o d u c t s
Toba c c o M a n u f a c t u r e r s
Fabrics, Ya rn and T h r e a d M i l l s
Flo or Coverings
Miscellaneous Textile Goods
H o s i e r y and Knit Goods
Ap par el
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Loggi nq
Sa w m i l l s a n d P l a n i n g M i l l s
Millwork, Plyw o o d and Oth e r M o o d P r o d u c t s
Wood e n Cont a i n e r s
H o u s e h o l d F u r niture
Other Fu rni ture a n d F i x t u r e s
Paper Produ c t s
Paperboard
Newspaper Printing and Publishing
P e r i odical an d Book Pri nting, P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
In dus trial I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
Ag r i c u l t u r a l C h e m i c a l s

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

2.
662.
-69.
246.
697.
86.
-65.
-5.
-1.
0.
20.
2.
-1.
39037.
19052.
6768.
2865.
3213.
-4.
-35.
239.
15.
39.
81.
24.
142.
32.
53.
32.
136.
32.
41.
99.
60.
15.
69.
47.
-8.
49.
67.
1.
298.
1498.
115.
42.
4.
99.
58.
48.
26.

-6.
195.
122.
925.
60.
7.
31.
6.
8.
214.
296.
14.
6.
33001.
25218.
9937.
3273.
3046.
134.
104.
276.
55.
295.
77.
25.
55.
48.
169.
49.
92.
225.
130.
120.
101.
40.
280.
54.
2.
87.
95.
3.
299.
2021.
261.
45.
2.
154.
194.
185.
87.

8.
1446.
-12.
519.
-20.
132.
83.
6.
29.
247.
765.
14.
4.
51222.
25779.
1337 1 .
3402.
2739.
-29.
230.
381.
77.
665.
208.
40.
151.
185.
568.
139.
278.
485.
346.
361.
159.
139.
624.
300.
2.
308.
460.
2.
700.
2614.
1020.
394.
4.
435.
738.
554.
147.

21.
628.
53.
40 1.
332.
55.
28.
27.
11.
105.
348.
61.
17.
49401.
24052.
13870.
3615.
4084.
97.
194.
573.
28.
306.
262.
15.
63.
80.
288.
187.
261.
181.
381.
345.
77.
170.
539.
130.
11.
115.
241.
7.
574.
2905.
484.
193.
18.
195.
284.
511.
57.

25.
760.
63.
500.
402.
67.
28.
36.
13.
129.
448.
75.
22.
65618.
27507.
15912.
4217.
4740.
115.
245.
700.
32.
398.
327.
17.
77.
99.
400.
273.
323.
202.
477.
446.
105.
242.
674.
181.
13.
128.
340.
8.
702.
3455.
642.
261.
22.
237.
351.
681.
76.

22.
710.
59.
481.
375.
62.
22.
37.
11.
122.
446 .
7 1.
22.
69402.
34387.
20105.
490 1 .
5398.
106.
303.
660 .
27.
400.
315.
15.
72.
95.
430.
307.
310.
175.
461.
542.
109.
252.
652.
179.
13.
111.
37 1.
7.
802.
4144.
658.
273.
21.
220.
318.
648.
70.




Table A -6. Continued—Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Proj e c t e d
No.
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113

Sec t o r Tit le
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s
P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c R u b b e r
S y n t h e t i c Fibe rs
Drugs
C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
P a i n t s and All i e d Pr o d u c t s
P e t r o l e u m R e f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
T i r e s and Inn er Tube s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s
Plastic Products
L e a t h e r T a n n i n g and Industrial L e a ther
F o o t w e a r and Other Leathe r P r o d u c t s
Glass
C e m e n t and C o n c r e t e Pr o d u c t s
S t r u c t u r a l Cl ay Products
P o t t e r y a n d R e l a t e d Pr o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and C l a y P r o d u c t s
Bl a s t F u r naces and Basic Ste el P r o d u c t s
Ir on and Steel Foundries and F o r g i n g s
P r i m a r y Copper and Copper P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y Al u m i n u m and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
O t h e r P r i m a r y Nonf e r r o u s P r o d u c t s
Me t a l C o n t a i n e r s
H e a t i n g A p p a r a t u s and P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s
F a b r i c a t e d S t r uctural Metal
S c r e w M a c h i n e P r o ducts
M e t a l St a m p i n g s
Cu tle ry, Hand Tools and Gene r a l H a r d w a r e
O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d Pr o d u c t s
Engin es , Tu r b i n e s and G e n e r a t o r s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
'
C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y
M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equ ip ment
Metal Working Machinery
S p e cial I n d ustry M a c h i n e s
G e n e r a l Industrial M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Shop P r o d u c t s
C o m p u t e r s and Per ip heral Equ i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Other O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e I n d ustry M a c h i n e s
E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equipment
E l e c t r i c a l In du strial A p p a r a t u s
Household Appliances
E l e c t r i c Li g h t i n g a n d W i r i n g
Ra d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Set s
T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
R a d i o a n d C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equ i p m e n t
Electronic Components
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Elec tri ca l P r o d u c t s
Motor Vehicles
A i rc raft
S h i p and Boa t B u i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r
R a i l r o a d Equipment
Cy cle s, B i c y c l e s and Parts
O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equipment
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
M e d i c a l and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
O p t i c a l and O p h t h a l m i c E q u i p m e n t
P h o t o g r a p h i c E q u i pment a n d S u p p l i e s
Watch e s , C l o c k s and Clo ck O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s

1963
27.
13.
12.
106.
78.
51.
215.
56.
38.
52.
-13.
-69.
101.
15.
14.
23.
47.
139.
10.
1 17.
77.
18.
53.
21.
761.
25.
59.
102.
342.
595.
2657.
2574.
946 .
2319.
2921 .
1969.
24.
1087.
409.
1370 .
1488.
703.
780.
103.
277.
1266.
1288.
90.
290.
8303.
1091.
446.
1245.
10.
706 .
574.
348.
119.
185.
9.

1967
43.
42.
-19.
123.
110.
64.
581.
47.
77.
75.
-8.
25.
50 .
7 1.
23.
18.
48.
652.
17.
165.
156 .
111.
92.
36.
1247.
75.
36.
1 16.
538.
1053.
4083.
3182.
1414.
4333.
4203.
2489.
50.
2376.
669.
2112.
2160.
1155.
783.
146.
248.
2026 .
2329.
174.
297.
10579.
5250.
939.
2139.
56.
1283.
827.
613.
206 .
687.
5.

1973
140 .
430.
245.
414.
480.
203.
1540.
293.
286.
566.
54.
202.
293.
435.
55.
41.
215.
1510.
45.
341.
472.
266.
258.
138.
1726 .
166.
136.
286 .
817.
1674.
5088.
5017.
1894.
4012.
4525.
3070 .
126.
4055.
1081.
2716.
2907.
1472.
1401.
390.
472.
2953.
3025.
479.
676 .
22746.
3443.
1339.
1772.
77.
3960 .
1013.
1048.
512.
1856.
6.

1980
80.
159.
163.
208.
200 .
95.
719.
144.
138.
179.
19.
73.
136 .
191.
20.
17.
61.
640 .
210.
353.
259.
122.
133.
6 1.
2493.
66.
186 .
169.
100 1.
1827.
6400 .
5499.
2578.
4846.
4801 .
4025.
144.
7498.
1862.
2836.
3270.
1585.
1495.
297.
415.
3788.
3554.
274.
866.
24296.
2515.
2332.
2132.
67.
3714.
1299.
1455.
877.
2564.
26.

1985
104.
20 1.
274.
291.
284.
126.
945.
197.
164.
233.
20.
80.
178.
241.
22.
21.
79.
778.
274.
438.
377.
158.
172.
77 .
2944.
77 .
237.
2 18.
1 184.
2212.
7641.
7075.
3135.
6 154.
5930.
4968.
167.
9821.
2245.
3415.
3917.
1917.
1837.
374.
512.
4526.
4247.
400 .
1071.
26639.
3351 .
2819.
2769.
84.
5276.
1549.
1779.'
1057.
3181.
36.

1990
101 .
188.
356.
311.
298.
128.
958.
208.
160.
209.
17.
68.
179.
234.
19.
19.
76 .
731.
275.
447.
425.
157.
177.
75.
3423.
69.
232.
232.
1334.
2650.
9207.
8376.
3814.
7376.
7349.
5985.
144.
13078.
2708.
4079.
4784.
2273.
2179.
412.
585.
556 1.
5056.
439.
1264.
28881.
4136.
3453.
3545.
100.
5789.
1865.
2'164.
1282.
4035.
39.




Table A-6. Continued—Gross private domestic investment, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
1 14
1 15
1 16
1 17
119
120
121
122
124
129
130
133
135
143
155
158
162

Se ct or Title
J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e
M u s ical Instr u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g Goods
Othe r M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s
Railroad Transportation
Tru ck Tran s p o r t a t i o n
W a t e r Tran s p o r t a t i o n
Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc e p t Radio and Tv
W h o l e s a l e Trade
Reta il Tra de
I n s urance
Real Estate
Moti o n Pictures
Directly Allocated Imports
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d
Inv e n t o r y V a l u ation A d j u s t m e n t

1963

1967

9.
304.
307 .
378.
647 .
17.
18.
3.
950 .
3544.
3441.
0.
2799.
9.
29.
-2265.
-251.

38.
319.
40 1 .
538.
745.
29.
45.
10.
1349.
4829.
3628.
0.
2788.
-69.
-124.
-4318.
-2127.

1973
1 17.
609 .
630 .
795.
1109.
45.
60.
16.
1896 .
7076 .
6368.
0.
4169.
351.
0.
-5909.
-19428.

1980

1985

1990

59.
605.
550.
942.
1326.
46.
81 .
32.
2574.
8762.
7686.
1.
5821.
168.
-74.
-6965.
-2898.

83.
762.
670 .
1120.
1606 .
59.
94.
41 .
3031 .
10382.
9334.
2.
7516.
209.
-72.
-8337.
-3773.

89.
915.
776 .
1280.
1896.
63.
111.
38.
3611.
12332.
11147.
2.
7829.
186.
-82.
-8877.
-3735.




Table A -7 . Nonresidential investment, total, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3 to 1990
(Million* o f 1872 dollar*)

Projected
No.
15
16
17
19
20
23
36
43
45
46
62
63
73
76
78
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
115
116
117
119
120
121
124
129
130
135
158

Sector Title
N e w and R e s idential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
N e w N o n r e s i d e n t i a l Bu i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
N e w Pub l i c U t i lity C o n s t r u c t i o n
All Other New Constr u c t i o n
Oil and Gas Well Drill i n g a n d E x p l o r a t i o n
C o m p l e t e G u i d e d Mi s s i l e s
Flo o r C o v e r i n g s
M i l lwork, P l y w o o d and Oth e r W o o d P r o d u c t s
H o u s e h o l d Furniture
O t h e r F u r n i t u r e and Fixtures
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber Pr o d u c t s
Plastic Products
P r i m a r y Cop p e r and Cop per P r o d u c t s
Me t a l C o n t a i n e r s
F a b r i c a t e d Structural Met al
Cu tle ry , Hand Tools and General H a r d w a r e
O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d Pro du cts
Engin es , Tu r b i n e s and G e n e r a t o r s
Farm Machinery
Construction Mining and Oilfield Machinery
M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equip me nt
Metal Working Machinery
S p e cial I n d ustry Machi n e s
G e n eral Indus trial M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Shop P r o ducts
C o m p u t e r s and Per ip heral E q u i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Other Off i c e E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e Indus t r y Machi n e s
E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equipment
Elec t r i c a l Indus tr ial A p p a r a t u s
Household Appliances
E l e c t r i c L i g hting and W i r i n g
Ra d i o and Tv Rec e i v i n g Sets
T e l e p h o n e an d T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
Ra d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
E l e c t r o n i c Comp o n e n t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ele ctrical P r o d u c t s
Motor Vehicles
A i rcra ft
S h i p and Bo at Bu i l d i n g and R e p a i r
R a i l r o a d Eq uip ment
Cy cles, B i c y c l e s and Parts
O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ ipment
S c i e n t i f i c and Co n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
M e d i c a l and De ntal I n s t r u m e n t s
O p t i c a l and Oph t h a l m i c Equipment
P h o t o g r a p h i c Equi pment and S u p p l i e s
Watches, Clocks and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
M u s i c a l Instr u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s
Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products
Railroad Transportation
Truck Trans p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exce pt Radio a n d Tv
W h o l e s a l e Trade
Reta i l Trad e
Rea l Es tate
Sc rap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

12.
19052.
6768.
2096.
3213.
0.
68.
7.
199.
1479.
23.
0.
41.
12.
664.
15.
299.
556.
2591 .
2496.
929.
2239.
2884.
1909.
10.
1060.
388.
1301.
1481.
681.
542.
66.
139.
1282.
1261.
99.
249.
7485.
603.
475.
1219.
8.
165.
534.
320.
116.
172.
0.
283.
272.
294.
513.
7.
17.
950.
3073.
3349.
330.
-214 0.

14.
25218.
9937.
2535.
3046.
34.
102.
9.
241.
1972.
36.
0.
45.
13.
1128.
24.
388.
982.
3596.
3107.
1369.
4138.
4092.
2337.
7.
2265.
619.
1960 .
2089.
1079.
671.
78.
149.
1933.
1828.
20.
254.
10946.
2937.
710.
2184.
35.
233.
736.
577.
198.
610.
1.
239.
343.
403.
619.
9.
42.
1349.
4235.
3327.
437.
-3219.

22.
25779.
13371.
3011.
2739.
98.
200 .
5.
323.
2406.
35.
1.
63.
14.
1379.
35.
539.
1347.
4766.
4596.
1732.
3585.
4197.
2602.
8.
3700.
1011.
2269.
26 19.
1163.
1022.
10 1.
206.
2717.
2569.
28.
431.
20944.
2489.
1116.
1627.
41.
466.
789.
895.
506.
1556.
1.
422.
344.
584.
904.
11.
57.
1896.
6113.
5407.
447.
-5095.

22.
24052.
13870.
3166.
4084.
142.
263.
5.
397.
2825.
28.
0.
78.
16 .
2160.
50.
792.
1686.
6261.
5298.
2499.
4653.
4675.
3811.
8.
7249.
1834.
2643.
3142.
1457.
1317.
177.
274.
3682.
3390.
31.
755.
22919.
2126.
2225.
2074.
51.
510.
1207.
1380.
843.
2402.
2.
515.
415.
755.
1144.
15.
78.
2574.
7908.
6770.
435.
-6083.

23.
27507.
15912.
3653.
4740.
182.
321.
5.
468.
3354.
27.
0.
87.
16.
2490.
60.
941.
2026.
7458.
6807.
3030.
5906.
5762.
4691.
8.
9451.
2211.
3147.
3750.
1747.
1595.
216.
322.
4385.
4046.
30.
927.
24834.
2887.
2675.
2687.
6 0.
584.
1440.
1680.
1013.
2955.
2.
642.
490.
876.
136 / •
18.
91,.
3031.
9268.
7993.
527.
-7304.

27.
34387.
20105.
4306.
5398.
246.
404.
4.
563.
4045.
27.
0.
101.
16.
2945.
70.
1135.
2470.
9029.
8100.
3709.
7 130.
7180.
57 19.
9.
1266 1.
2677.
3804.
4619.
2105.
1939.
26 1.
402.
5392.
4868.
30.
1131.
27143.
3709.
3304.
346 1.
72.
697.
1764.
2065.
1240.
3798.
2.
790.
592.
1039.
166 0.
22.
107.
36 11.
11227.
9687.
6 93.
-7727.




Table A-8. Nonresidential investment, equipm ent, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Million* of 1972 dollar*)

Projected
No.
23
36
43
45
46
62
63
73
76
78
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
10 1
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
1 10
111
1 12
113
115
116
117
1 19
120
121
124
129
130
158

Secto r Ti t l e
Co m p l e t e Guided M i s s i l e s
Flo or Co verings
Mil lwo rk , Plyw o o d and O t h e r M o o d P r o d u c t s
H o u s e h o l d Furniture
Other Fu rni ture and F i x t u r e s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rub ber P r o d u c t s
P l a s t i c Pr oducts
P r i m a r y Copp e r a n d C o p p e r P r o d u c t s
Me tal Cont a i n e r s
Fab r i c a t e d Structural Meta l
Cutlery, H a n d Tools a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e
Oth er F a b r icated P r o d u c t s
Engines, Turbi n e s a n d G e n e r a t o r s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
C o n s t r u c t i o n Mining a n d O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y
Material H a n d l i n g Equ i p m e n t
Me tal W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y
Sp eci al Industry M a c h i n e s
Ge ner al Indus trial M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Shop P r o ducts
Com p u t e r s a n d P e r ipheral E q u i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Oth e r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e Industry M a c h i n e s
Electric Tr a n s m i s s i o n Equ i p m e n t
Elect ric al In dustrial A p p a r a t u s
Household Appliances
Electric Li ght ing a n d W i r i n g
Rad io and Tv Rec e i v i n g Set s
T e l e p h o n e an d T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
Rad io and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
E l e c tronic Comp o n e n t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s
Mo t o r V e h icles
A i rcraft
Ship and Boat B u i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r
Ra i l r o a d Equi pment
Cycles, Bicycles and P a r t s
Othe r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
Op tic al and Opht h a l m i c E q u i p m e n t
P h o t o g r a p h i c Equ ipment a n d S u p p l i e s
Watch es , Clocks a n d Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
Music al Instr u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g G o o d s
Oth er M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s
Ra i l r o a d T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Truck Tran s p o r t a t i o n
Wat e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Ai r Trans p o r t a t i o n
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc ept Radio a n d Tv
W h o l e s a l e Trad e
Reta il Trade
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

0.
68.
7.
199.
1479.
23.
0.
41.
12.
664.
15.
299.
556.
2591.
2496.
929.
2239.
2884.
1909.
10.
1060 .
388.
130 1.
1481.
681.
542.
66.
139.
1282.
126 1.
99.
249.
7485.
603.
475.
1219.
8.
111.
534.
320.
116 .
172.
0.
283.
272.
294.
513.
7.
17 .
950.
3068.
3338.
-1415.

34.
102.
9.
241.
1972.
36.
0.
45.
13.
1 128.
24.
388.
982.
3596.
3107.
1369.
4138.
4092.
2337 .
7.
2265.
619.
1960 .
2089.
1079.
67 1.
78.
149.
1933.
1828.
20.
254.
10946.
2937 .
710.
2184.
35.
172.
736.
577 .
198.
610.
1.
239.
343.
403.
619.
9.
42.
1349.
4235.
3310.
-3030.

98.
200 .
5.
323.
2406.
35.
1.
63.
14.
1379.
35.
539.
1347.
4766 .
4596.
1732.
3585.
4197.
2602.
8.
3700 .
1011.
2269.
26 19.
1163.
1022.
10 1.
206.
27 17.
2569.
28.
431.
20944.
2489.
1116.
1627.
41.
299.
789.
895.
506.
1556.
1.
422.
344.
584.
904.
11.
57.
1896.
6113.
5359.
-4968.

142.
263.
5.
397.
2825.
28.
0.
78.
16.
2160.
50.
792.
1686.
626 1 .
5298.
2499.
4653.
4675.
3811.
8.
7249.
1834.
2643.
3142.
1457.
1317.
177.
274.
3682.
3390.
31.
755.
22919.
2126.
2225.
2074.
51.
346.
1207.
1380.
843.
2402.
2.
515.
415.
755.
1144.
15.
78.
2574.
7907.
6722.
-5920.

182.
321.
5.
468.
3354.
27.
0.
87.
16.
2490.
60.
941.
2026.
7458.
6807.
3030.
5906.
5762.
4691.
8.
9451.
2211.
3147.
3750.
1747.
1595.
216.
322.
4385.
4046.
30.
927.
24834.
2887.
2675.
2687.
60.
407.
1440.
1680.
1013.
2955.
2.
642.
490.
876.
1367.
18.
91.
3031.
9266.
7941.
-7 129.

246.
404.
4.
563.
4045.
27.
0.
101.
16.
2945.
70.
1135.
2470.
9029.
8100.
3709.
7130.
7180.
5719.
9.
1266 1.
2677.
3804.
4619.
2105.
1939.
26 1.
402.
5392.
4868.
30.
1131.
27 143.
3709.
3304.
3461.
72.
482.
1764.
2065.
1240.
3798.
2.
790.
592.
1039.
1659.
22.
107.
3611.
11226.
9623.
-7519.




Table A -9. Non residential investment, structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(M illion! o f 1972 dollar*)

Projected
No.
15
16
17
19
20
10S
119
129
130
135
153

Sector Title
New and R e s idential Bui l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
New N o n r e s i d e n t i a l Bu i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
New Pub l i c U t i l i t y C o n s t r u c t i o n
All Other Ne w Co n s t r u c t i o n
Oil and Gas Well Drilling and E x p l o r a t i o n
O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ ipment
Truck Tran s p o r t a t i o n
W h o l e s a l e Tra de
Reta i1 T rade
Real Esta te
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d

1963

1967

1973

1930

1985

1990

12.
19052.
6768.
2096 .
3213.
54.
1.
5.
10.
330 .
-725.

14.
25218.
9937 .
2535.
3046 .
6 1.
0.
0.
18.
437 .
- 189.

22.
25779.
13371.
3011.
2739.
167 .
0.
1.
48.
447.
-127.

22.
24052.
13870.
3166.
4084.
164.
0.
1.
48.
435.
-163.

23.
27507.
15912.
3653.
4740 .
173.
0.
1.
52*.
527.
-176.

27.
34387.
20105.
4306 .
5398.
215.
0.
1.
64.
693.
-208.




Table A-10. Residential investment, structures, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
15
19
108
1 17
119
120
129
130
135
158

Sect or T i t l e
New and Resid ent ia l B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
All Oth er New Co n s t r u c t i o n
Oth er Tran s p o r t a t i o n Equipment
Railr o a d Tran s p o r t a t i o n
Truck Transpor t a t i o n
Water Tran s p o r t a t i o n
W h o l e s a l e Tra de
Retail Tra de
Real Esta te
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

--------- 1
1990

39025.
769.
487 .
2.
6.
0.
43.
93.
2469.
-268.

32987.
738.
10 18.
0.
2.
1.
6.
30 1 .
2351 .
-1000.

51200.
391 .
3254.
0.
6.
2.
20 .
96 1.
3722.
-1081.

49380.
449.
3097 .
0.
6.
3.
18.
916.
5387.
-917.

65595.
565.
4533.
0.
9.
5.
27 .
1340 .
6990 .
-1075.

69375.
595.
4938.
0.
10.
5.
29.
1460 .
7 136.
-1190.




Table A -1 1. Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58

Sector Tit l e
D a i r y and P o u l t r y P r o ducts
M e a t a n d Li ves tock Produ c t s
Cotton
Food a n d Feed Grains
O t h e r Agricu l t u r a l Products
F o r e s t r y an d Fish e r y P r o d u c t s
Iron a n d F e r r o a l l o y Mining
C o p p e r Ore M i n i n g
O t h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore Min i n g
Coal M i n i n g
C r u d e P e t r o l e u m and Nat ural Gas
S t o n e an d Cl ay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g
C h e m i c a l and F e r t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g
Ordnance
C o m p l e t e Guided M i s s i l e s
Meat Products
D a i r y Pr o d u c t s
C a n n e d and Froz en Foo ds
G r a i n Mill Pr o d u c t s
B a k e r y P r o ducts
Sugar
Confectionary Products
Alcoholic Beverages
Soft Drin k s and F l a vorings
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o ducts
Tobacco Manufacturers
Fab ric s, Ya rn and Thr e a d M i l l s
Fl o o r Cov e r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s T e x t i l e Good s
H o s i e r y and Knit Goods
A p p arel
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Loggi ng
S a w m i l l s and P l a n i n g Mills
M i l l w o r k , P l y w o o d and Oth er W o o d P r o d u c t s
Wooden Containers
H o u s e h o l d Fur n i t u r e
O t h e r F u r n iture and Fixtures
P a p e r Produ c t s
Paperboard
N e w s p a p e r P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
P e r i o d i c a l and Book Print in g, P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
I n d u s t r i a l I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
A g r i c u l t u r a l Che m i c a l s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s
P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c Rub b e r
S y n t h e t i c Fib er s
Drugs
C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s

1963
2.
662.
-69.
246 .
697 .
86.
-65.
-5.
-1.
0.
20.
2.
-1.
-4.
-35.
239.
15.
39.
81.
24.
142.
32.
53.
32.
136 .
32.
41.
31.
60.
15.
69.
47 .
-8.
49.
60.
1.
99.
19.
115.
42.
4.
99.
58.
48.
26 .
27.
13.
12.
106.
78.

1967
-6.
195.
122.
925.
60.
7.
31.
6.
8.
214.
296.
14.
6.
134.
70.
276.
55.
295.
77.
25.
55.
48.
169.
49.
92.
225.
130.
18.
101.
40.
280.
54.
2.
87.
86.
3.
58.
48.
26 1.
45.
2.
154.
194.
185.
87.
43.
42.
-19.
123.
110.

1973
8.
1446.
-12.
519.
-20 .
132.
83.
6.
29.
247 .
765.
14.
4.
-29.
132.
381.
77.
665.
208.
40 .
151.
185.
568.
139.
278.
485.
346.
16 1.
159.
139.
624.
300 .
2.
308.
455.
2.
377.
207.
1020 .
394.
4.
435.
738.
554.
147.
140.
430.
245.
414.
480.

1980
21.
628.
53.
40 1.
332.
55.
28.
27 .
11.
105.
348.
6 1.
17.
97.
53.
573.
28.
306 .
262.
15.
63.
80 .
288.
187.
26 1 .
181.
381.
82.
77.
170.
539.
130.
11.
115.
236 .
7.
177.
80.
484.
193.
18.
195.
284.
511.
57.
80.
159.
163.
208.
200 .

1985
25.
760 .
63.
500 .
402.
67.
28.
36.
13.
129.
448.
75.
22.
115.
63.
700 .
32.
398.
327.
17.
77.
99.
400 .
273.
323.
202.
477.
124.
105.
242.
674.
181.
13.
128.
335.
8.
234.
10 1.
642.
26 1.
22.
237 .
351.
681.
76 .
104.
20 1.
274.
291.
284.

1990
22.
710.
59.
481.
375.
62.
22.
37.
11.
122.
446.
7 1.
22.
106.
57.
660 .
27.
400 .
315.
15.
72.
95.
430.
307.
310.
175.
46 1.
138.
109.
252.
652.
179.
13.
111.
367.
7.
239.
99.
658.
273.
21.
220.
318.
648.
70.
10 1.
188.
356.
311.
298.




Table A -11. Continued—Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Pro j ected
No.
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
119

Sector Ti t l e
Pai n t s and Alli ed P r o d u c t s
Petroleum Refining and Related Products
Tires and In ner Tubes
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s
P l a s t i c Products
Le ather T a n n i n g and I n d u s t r i a l L e a ther
Footw e a r an d Other L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s
Glas s
Cement and Co n c r e t e P r o d u c t s
Structural Clay P r o d u c t s
P o t t e r y and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and Cl a y P r o d u c t s
Bla st Furna c e s and Ba s i c Steel P r o d u c t s
Iron and Steel F o u n d r i e s a n d F o r g i n g s
P r i m a r y Copp er and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s
Primary Aluminum and Aluminum Products
Oth er P r i mary N o n f e r r o u s P r o d u c t s
Me tal Cont a i n e r s
H e a t i n g Apparatus a n d P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s
Fabr i c a t e d S t r uctural Metal
Scr e w M a c h i n e P r o d u c t s
Meta l Sta m p i n g s
Cutle ry , Hand Tools a n d G e n eral H a r d w a r e
Othe r Fabr i c a t e d P r o d u c t s
Engines, Turbines a n d G e n e r a t o r s
Fa rm M a c h i n e r y
C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y
Mater i a l Handling Equ i p m e n t
Meta l U o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y
Sp eci al Industry M a c h i n e s
Gener al Industr ial M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Sh op Pr o d u c t s
C o m p u t e r s and Peri p h e r a l E q u i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Ot h e r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e In dustry M a c h i n e s
Elect r i c Tra n s m i s s i o n E q u i p m e n t
Electrical In dus trial A p p a r a t u s
Household Appliances
Elect r i c Li ghting a n d H i r i n g
Rad io and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
Rad io and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
Elec t r o n i c C o m p o n e n t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s E l e c trical P r o d u c t s
Mo t o r V e h icles
Ai rcr af t
Shi p and Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r
R a i l r o a d Equ ip ment
Cycles, Bi c y c l e s a n d Pa r t s
Othe r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
Optic al an d O p h t h a l m i c Eq u i p m e n t
P h o t o g r a p h i c E q u i pment a n d S u p p l i e s
Hatch es , Cloc ks and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
Jewe l r y an d S i l v e r w a r e
Musical Instr u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g Goods
Other M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s
Railroad Transportation
Tru ck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n

1963
51.
215.
56.
15.
52.
-13.
-69.
10 1.
15.
14.
23.
47 .
139.
10.
76*.
77.
18.
41.
21.
97.
25.
59.
87.
43.
39.
66.
78.
17.
80.
37.
60.
14.
27.
21.
69.
7.
22.
238.
37.
138.
-16.
27.
-9.
41.
818.
488.
-29.
26.
3.
55.
40.
28.
3.
13.
8.
9.
21.
35.
81.
128.

1967

1973

198 0

1985

1990

64.
581.
47.
40.
75.
-8.
25.
50.
71.
23.
18.
48.
652.
17.
120.
156.
111.
78.
36 .
119.
75.
36.
92.
150.
72.
487.
75.
45.
195.
111.
152.
43.
110.
51.
153.
71.
77.
112.
68.
99.
93.
501.
155.
43.
-367.
2314.
229.
-45.
21.
33.
91.
36.
8.
78.
4.
38.
79.
58.
135.
123.

203.
1540.
293.
251.
565.
54.
202.
293.
435.
55.
41.
215.
1510.
45.
278.
472.
266.
244.
138.
348.
166.
136.
251.
278.
327.
322.
421.
162.
427.
328.
468.
1 18.
355.
70.
447.
288.
309.
380.
289.
266.
236.
456.
452.
245.
1802.
953.
223.
145.
35.
241.
224.
152.
7.
300.
5.
117.
187.
286.
211.
198.

95.
719.
144.
110.
179.
19.
73.
136.
191.
20.
17.
61.
640.
210.
275.
259.
122.
117.
61.
332.
66 .
186.
120.
208.
141.
139.
201.
78.
193.
127.
215.
136.
249.
29.
193.
128.
127.
178.
120.
141.
106.
164.
243.
112.
1378.
389.
107.
59.
16.
107.
92.
74.
34.
163.
24.
59.
90.
136.
187.
176.

126.
945.
197.
138.
233.
20.
80.
178.
241.
22.
21.
79.
778.
274.
351.
377.
158.
156.
77.
454.
77.
237.
159.
244.
186.
183.
268.
104.
248.
168.
277.
159.
371.
34.
268.
167.
170.
242.
158.
190.
142.
201.
370.
144.
1805.
464.
144.
82.
23.
158.
109.
99.
44.
226.
35.
83.
120.
180.
243.
229.

128.
958.
208.
133.
209.
17.
68.
179.
234.
19.
19.
76.
731.
275.
346.
425.
157.
161.
75.
478.
69.
232.
162.
199.
180.
177.
276.
104.
246.
169.
265.
136.
417.
31.
275.
165.
168.
241.
151.
183.
168.
187.
409.
132.
1738.
427.
149.
84.
27.
155.
101.
99.
42.
237.
36.
89.
124.
184.
241.
226.




Table A -1 1. Continued—Change in business inventories, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions to 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
120
121
122
129
133
143
155
158
162

Se ctor Tit le
Water Transportation
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
P i p e l i n e Tran s p o r t a t i o n
W h o l e s a l e Tra de
Insurance
M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s
D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Import s
Scrap* Used* and S e c o n d h a n d
I n v e n t o r y V a l uation A d j u s t m e n t

1963
10 .
1.
3.
428.
0.
9.
29.
143.
-251.

1967

1973

1980

1935

1990

20.
3.
10.
588.
0.
-69.
-124.
-99.
-2127.

32.
3.
16.
943.
0.
351.
0.
267.
-19428.

28.
3.
32.
835.
1.
168.
-74.
36.
-2898.

37.
4.
41.
1087.
2.
209.
-72.
43.
-3773.

36.
4.
38.
1076 .
2.
186.
-82.
40.
-3735.




Table A -12. N et exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Proj ected
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
16
19
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55

Sector Ti t l e
Da i r y and Po ultry P r o d u c t s
Meat and Liv es toc k P r o d u c t s
Cott on
Food and Feed Grai ns
Othe r Agricultural P r o d u c t s
Fo r e s t r y and Fishery P r o d u c t s
Agricultural, F o r estry a n d F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Iron and F e r r oalloy M i n i n g
Copp e r Or e Mini ng
Other Non f e r r o u s O r e M i n i n g
Coal Mini n g
Cru d e P e t r o l e u m and Natural Gas
Stone and Cl ay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g
Ch emi cal and Fer t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g
New Nonresid e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
All Other New C o n s t r u c t i o n
Or d n a n c e
C o m p l e t e Guid e d M i s s i l e s
Mea t Pr o d u c t s
Dairy P r o ducts
C a n n e d and Frozen Foo ds
Gra in Mill Products
Bak e r y Produ c t s
Sug ar
C o n f e c t i o n a r y Produ c t s
A l c o h o l i c B e v erages
So ft Drinks an d F l a v o r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s
Tobacco M a n u f a c t u r e r s
Fabrics, Yar n and T h r e a d M i l l s
Flo or Cov e r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Textile Go o d s
H o s i e r y and Knit Go o d s
Appar el
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Loggi ng
S a w m i l l s and P l a ning M i l l s
Mill wor k, Plywo od a n d Ot h e r W o o d P r o d u c t s
Woo d e n Containers
H o u s e h o l d Fu rni ture
Other Furniture and F i x t u r e s
Pap e r P r o ducts
Paperboard
N e w s p a p e r P r i nting and P u b l i s h i n g
Periodical and Book Pri nt ing, P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
In dus trial Inorganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
Agricu l t u r a l C h e m icals
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemi cal P r o d u c t s
Pl a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s a n d S y n t h e t i c Rub b e r

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

13.
-281.
464.
1972.
557.
-688.
16.
-473.
-19.
-474.
564.
-1614.
-103.
-35.
4.
0.
261.
0.
-502.
196.
-15.
449.
-6.
-1163.
-59.
-46 1.
37.
506.
584.
-146.
-53.
-505.
4.
-430.
3.
86.
-611.
-396 .
-4.
14.
-25.
-823.
15.
3.
158.
-13.
556.
105.
238.
367.

16.
-284.
401.
1832.
605.
-793.
11.
-588.
-16.
-391.
505.
-1389.
-64.
38.
22.
0.
211.
17.
-786.
14.
-118.
506 .
-21.
-1072.
-72.
-691.
28.
417.
676 .
-349.
-43.
-400 .
3.
-863.
9.
239.
-677 .
-484.
0.
28.
-104.
-984.
24.
-1.
137.
14.
651.
131.
138.
424.

19.
-123.
612.
4579.
2002.
-868.
14.
-386.
14.
-813.
558.
-3603.
-187.
-86.
26 .
0.
374.
15.
-834.
-167.
-74.
495.
-37.
-994.
-100.
-852.
54.
674.
874.
-289.
-57.
-238.
-90 .
-2081.
23.
505.
-880 .
-654.
-2.
59.
-308.
-697 .
38.
-10.
149.
-15.
1199.
160.
180.
7 17.

21.
-59.
822.
3768.
2187.
-933.
14.
-389.
25.
-868.
594.
-7136.
-163.
-68.
4 1.
1.
1027.
310.
-1296.
-266.
-131.
584.
-41.
-833.
-100 .
-914.
87.
985.
970 .
-129.
-56.
-110.
-99.
-2686.
81.
675.
-901.
-628.
-2.
94.
-415.
-275.
58.
-17.
190 .
-41.
1667 .
242.
229.
904.

33.
18.
942.
3897.
2490.
-86 1.
15.
-369.
32.
-871.
690 .
-7786.
-157.
-66.
49.
1.
1031.
311.
-1123.
-343.
-133.
596 .
-44.
-715.
-93.
-919.
110.
1155.
1041.
32.
-47.
-2.
-106.
-3005.
138.
819.
-865.
-585.
0.
112.
-503.
32.
70.
-24.
205.
-90.
1988.
259.
272.'
1037 .

36.
100.
1130.
4255.
260 1 .
-893.
16.
-369.
43.
-924.
900 .
-9492.
-145.
-59.
6 1.
1.
1024.
312.
-1469.
-448.
-139.
651.
-49.
-669.
-87.
-964.
142.
1421.
1187.
208.
-36.
99.
-115.
-3593.
217.
1025.
-876.
-575.
2.
139.
-617.
363.
88.
-36.
235.
-164.
2425.
264.
■336.
1236.




Table A -1 2 . Continued—Net exports, selected historical and projected years, 1 9 6 3 to 1990
(Million of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115

Sector Title
S y n t h e t i c Fibe rs
Drugs
C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
P a i n t s and A l l i e d Products
P e t r o l e u m Re f i n i n g a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
T i r e s and Inn er Tubes
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s
Plastic Products
L e a t h e r T a n n i n g and Industrial L e a t h e r
F o o t w e a r and Other Lea th er P r o d u c t s
Glass
C e m e n t and C o n c r e t e Pr o d u c t s
S t r u c t u r a l Cl ay P r o d u c t s
P o t t e r y and R e l a t e d Pr o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and Clay P r o d u c t s
Bla s t F u r naces and Basic Stee l P r o d u c t s
Iro n a n d Steel F o u n d r i e s a n d F o r g i n g s
P r i m a r y Copp e r and Copper P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y A l u m i n u m and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
Other Primary Nonferrous Products
Metal Containers
H e a t i n g A p p a r a t u s and P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s
F a b r i c a t e d Structural Met al
S c r e w M a c h i n e P r o ducts
M e t a l Sta m p i n g s
Cutlery* Hand Tools and General H a r d w a r e
O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d P r o ducts
Eng ine s* T u r b i n e s and G e n e r a t o r s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y
M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equ ip ment
Metal Working Machinery
S p e c i a l I n d ustry M a c h i n e s
G e n e r a l In dus trial M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Shop P r o d u c t s
C o m p u t e r s and Peri p h e r a l E q u i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s a n d Other Offi c e E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e I n d ustry Ma c h i n e s
E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n E q u i pment
E l e c t r i c a l Industrial A p p a r a t u s
Household Appliances
E l e c t r i c Li g h t i n g a n d W i r i n g
R a d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
T e l e p h o n e an d T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equ i p m e n t
Electronic Components
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s
Motor Vehicles
A i rcra ft
S h i p and Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r
R a i l r o a d Eq uip ment
Cycle s, B i c y c l e s and Parts
O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i pment
Scientific and Controlling Instruments
M e d i c a l and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
O p t i c a l and O p h t h a l m i c E q u i pment
Phot.ographi c E q u ipment and S u p p l i e s
W a t ches* C l o c k s a n d Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e
M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s

1963
87.
208.
87.
41.
-230 .
55.
25.
59.
-18.
-183.
-12.
-18.
-13.
-10 1.
18.
-461.
45.
-31.
-81.
-595.
25.
44.
295.
-19.
20.
40.
77.
400 .
168.
1374.
121.
516.
646.
464.
0.
212.
21.
252.
169.
190.
62.
32.
-145.
17.
267.
128.
34.
1135.
1100.
21.
179.
-119.
8.
387.
86.
-34.
64.
-113.
-191.
-148.

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

31.
183.
104.
55.
-550.
-39.
-60.
60.
-59.
-429.
-38.
-16.
-3.
-186.
-15.
-1612.
67.
-7 19.
-95.
-1039.
12.
24.
240.
-41.
212.
7.
79.
373.
98.
1479.
131.
164.
465.
458.
82.
415.
41.
384.
136.
229.
-17.
82.
-498.
10.
323.
179.
59.
-611.
1743.
-7.
151.
-212.
-23.
465.
92.
-78.
121.
-205.
-267.
-271.

132.
426 .
160.
78.
-1946.
-429.
-195.
-8.
-61.
-992.
-100 .
-102.
-37.
-272.
2.
-2282.
127.
-253.
67.
-1093.
-0.
66.
313.
-139.
478.
-85.
-253.
643.
13.
2113.
217.
336.
657.
227.
104.
1565.
-469.
596 .
431.
302.
-261.
-62.
-2124.
-24.
215.
521.
-27.
-5340.
3427.
1 15.
166.
-878.
-14.
399.
154.
-200 .
249.
-343.
-24 1.
-570 .

220.
634.
220.
105.
-1321.
-664.
-146.
-48.
-58.
-1490.
-35.
-113.
-24.
-308.
35.
-2760.
245.
-241.
124.
-1137.
-0.
74.
444.
-199.
752.
-94.
-385.
797 .
166.
297 1.
236.
486.
887.
267.
128.
2734.
-791.
811.
610.
379.
-267.
-135.
-3385.
2.
288.
1173.
-65.
-6143.
5448.
177.
158.
-1182.
-5.
431.
218.
-27 1.
450.
-409.
-229.
-768.

290.
825.
258.
122.
-2271.
-1033.
-279.
-113.
-52.
-2047.
36.
-119.
-24.
-340.
57.
-3224.
309.
-155.
176.
-1123.
-2.
81.
482.
-262.
928.
-104.
-584.
856.
215.
3756.
239.
620 .
1033.
194.
136.
3781.
-1087.
904.
729.
408.
-373.
-249.
-4231.
16.
228.
1575.
-183.
-6528.
6658.
236.
141.
-1719.
-6.
370.
244.
-356.
648.
-467.
-205.
-97 1.

382.
1121.
314.
147.
-2841.
-1491.
-452.
-210.
-48.
-2892.
141.
-131.
-26.
-394.
86.
-3938.
397.
-84.
243.
-1172.
-2.
93.
554.
-356.
1174.
-120.
-876.
957.
322.
5034.
238.
830.
1295.
104.
153.
5367.
-1480.
1007 .
899.
452.
-532.
-424.
-5477.
41.
111.
2185.
-374.
-8209.
8218.
310 .
110.
-2108.
-11.
283.
277.
-490.
990 .
-562.
-171.
-1280.

n




Table A -12. Continued—Net exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
'Ho.
116
117
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
135
136
137
139
140
141
143
144
148
150
152
155
156
158
160

Secto r Title
Othe r M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s
Railroad Transportation
Tru ck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
Transportation Services
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Excep t Radio a n d Tv
Rad io an d Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g
E l e ctric U t i l ities
Gas Uti l i t i e s
Wat e r an d Sa n i t a r y S e r v i c e s
W h o l e s a l e Tra de
Retail Tra de
Bank ing
Cred it Ag e n c i e s a n d F i n ancial B r o k e r s
I n s urance
Real Esta te
H o t e l s and Lodging P l a c e s
Pe rso nal and Repair S e r v i c e s
Miscellaneous Business Services
Adverti si ng
Miscellaneous Professional Services
Mot i o n Pictu r e s
Amu s e m e n t and R e c r e a t i o n S e r v i c e s
Ed ucational Servi c e s
Post Office
Other Fe deral E n t e r p r i s e s
Di r e c t l y All o c a t e d I m p orts
Bu s i n e s s Travel, Ente r n a i n m e n t , a n d G i f t s
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d
Rest of W o r l d Indus t r y

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

-76.
766 .
761.
1952.
-94.
40.
170.
52.
44.
16.
-119.
4.
3799.
34.
2.
12.
100 .
588.
0.
5.
44.
25.
297.
494.
0.
61.
44.
95.
-11412.
-343.
-250.
5218.

-208.
867.
753.
20 14.
100 .
62.
38.
150 .
0.
10 .
-115.
6.
5284.
66.
66 .
0.
166 .
693.
3.
1.
121.
39.
445.
390 .
14.
0.
25.
108.
-14140.
-432.
-408.
8859.

-297.
1473.
1238.
3255.
120 .
107 .
55.
239.
0.
-60.
-230 .
7.
8874.
95.
120 .
0.
381 .
997 .
4.
1.
192.
49.
520.
548.
19.
0.
16.
85.
-14624.
-468.
278.
10183.

-280 .
2030 .
1655.
3717.
476 .
145.
67.
328.
0.
-42.
-194.
10.
11357.
132.
164.
0.
545.
1317.
5.
1.
273.
83.
721.
605.
26 .
0.
14.
80.
-14867 .
-496 .
946.
11062.

-269.
2417.
1996 .
4132.
897 .
171.
78.
382.
0.
-42.
-146.
1 1.
13185.
156.
191.
0.
700 .
1516.
6.
1.
334.
100 .
836 .
643.
30 .
0.
12.
73.
-16759.
-496.
1511.
11840.

-249.
2979.
2481.
4827.
1722.
208.
94.
463.
0.
-4 1.
-130.
13.
15970.
191 .
232.
0.
934.
1826 .
7.
1.
434.
124.
10 12.
728.
36 .
0.
11.
7 1.
-19857.
-527.
2241.
14277.




Table A -1 3. Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
16
19
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
3.0
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55

Sector Titl e
D a i r y and Poul t r y Products
M e a t a n d Livestock Pr o d u c t s
Cotton
Fo o d a n d Feed Grains
O t h e r Agric u l t u r a l Produ c t s
F o r e s t r y and Fishery Pr o d u c t s
A g r i c u l t u r a l , Fores t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Iro n and F e r r o a l l o y Mini n g
C o p p e r Ore Min i n g
O t h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore M i n i n g
Coal M i n i n g
C r u d e P e t r o l e u m and Natura l Gas
S t o n e and Clay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g
C h e m i c a l and Fert i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g
N e w N o n r e s i d e n t i a l Bu i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
All Other New Constr u c t i o n
Ordnance
C o m p l e t e Guid e d M i s s i l e s
Meat Products
Dai ry Pr o d u c t s
C a n n e d and Fro zen Foods
G r a i n Mill Produ c t s
B a k e r y P r o ducts
Su g a r
C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s
A l c o h o l i c B e v e rages
Soft D r i n k s and F l a v orings
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food Pr o d u c t s
Tobacco Manufacturers
Fab ric s, Ya rn and Thr e a d M i l l s
F l o o r C o v erings
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Text i l e Goo ds
H o s i e r y and Knit Goods
Appa r e l
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Loggi ng
S a w m i l l s and P l a n i n g Mills
Mil l w o r k , P l y w o o d and Othe r W o o d P r o d u c t s
Wooden Containers
H o u s e h o l d Furniture
O t h e r Fur n i t u r e and Fixtures
P a p e r Produ c t s
Paperboard
N e w s p a p e r Pr i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
P e r i o d i c a l and Book Pri nti ng , P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
I n d u s t r i a l I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
Agricultural Chemicals
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chem ica l Pr o d u c t s
P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c R u b b e r

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

15.
49.
495.
2024.
1050 .
89.
16.
141.
0.
1.
568.
15.
50.
62.
4.
0.
292.
0.
448.
274.
288.
490 .
7.
5.
26.
19.
37.
699.
709.
352.
1.
33.
18.
172.
42.
141 .
170.
45.
3.
14.
27.
579.
29.
5.
244.
0.
858.
144.
323.
386.

16.
59.
437.
1869.
1288.
92.
19.
131.
33.
12.
509.
95.
100 .
123.
22.
0.
334.
17.
348.
133.
294.
552.
7.
9.
35.
29.
40.
824.
7 19.
287 .
17.
82.
27 .
166 .
82.
302.
214.
60.
4.
28.
23.
720 .
28.
4.
247.
47.
1230 .
200 .
275.
472.

20.
213.
617.
4618.
2791.
89.
21.
182.
32.
30.
559.
11.
168.
141.
26.
0.
472.
15.
499.
1 14.
443.
563.
6.
19.
54.
52.
74.
1037.
904.
539.
60.
17 1.
35.
250.
141.
527.
318.
118.
2.
60.
35.
1163.
45.
2.
291.
6 1.
2329.
364.
339.
868.

22.
283.
827.
3802.
3046 .
98.
21.
206.
45.
35.
595.
12.
253.
200 .
41.
1.
1119.
310 .
435.
99.
457 .
659.
8.
29.
65.
74.
111.
1381.
996.
740.
91.
225.
48.
380.
233.
698.
393.
195.
3.
94.
45.
1674.
66.
2.
353.
82.
3182.
557.
403.
1132.

34.
359.
947.
3926.
3370.
96.
22.
219.
54.
38 •
691.
12.
302.
229.
49.
1.
1122.
311.
496.
95.
493.
674.
9.
37.
74.
97.
137.
1562.
1063.
888.
121.
289.
54.
483.
316.
842.
452.
241.
5.
1 13.
52.
1964.
78.
2.
381.
89.
3844.
695.
450.
1346.

37.
463.
1135.
4284.
3557.
100.
24.
249.
67.
44.
902.
13.
374.
275.
6 1.
1.
1126.
312.
587.
97.
565.
737.
10.
49.
89.
129.
173.
1856.
1207 .
1102.
163.
368.
65.
636 .
436.
1048.
545.
305.
6.
139.
63.
2399.
97.
2.
437.
100.
4791.
885.
529.
1660 .




Table A -13. Continued—Exports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
10 1
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
1 12
113
114
115

Sec tor Tit l e
S y n t h e t i c Fibers
Drug s
C l e a n i n g and To ilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
Pai n t s an d Alli ed P r o d u c t s
P e t r o l e u m Re f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
Tires and Inn er Tub e s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubb er P r o d u c t s
Plas t i c P r o ducts
Leather T a n n i n g and Indu s t r i a l Leat h e r
Footwear and Other Leat h e r P r o d u c t s
Gla ss
Cement and Co n c r e t e P r o d u c t s
S t r uctural Cl ay P r o d u c t s
P o t tery and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and Clay P r o d u c t s
Bla st Fu r n a c e s and Ba s i c Steel P r o d u c t s
Iron and Steel Fou n d r i e s a n d F o r g i n g s
P r i m a r y Copper and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y Alumi n u m a n d A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
Other P r i m a r y N o n f e r r o u s P r o d u c t s
Met al C o n tainers
H e a t i n g A p p a ratus a n d P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s
F a b r i c a t e d Structural Metal
Scr e w M a c h i n e Produ c t s
Met al Sta m p i n g s
Cutlery, Hand Tools and G e n eral H a r d w a r e
Other F a b r icated P r o d u c t s
Engines, Turbines a n d G e n e r a t o r s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
C o n s t r u c t i o n Mini n g a n d O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y
Mater i a l Handl i n g Equ i p m e n t
Meta l W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y
Speci al In dustry M a c h i n e s
Gener al Indus tri al M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Sh op Produ c t s
C o m p u t e r s and P e r i pheral Equ i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Ot h e r O f f i c e Equ i p m e n t
Serv i c e In dustry M a c h i n e s
Elect r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equ i p m e n t
El ect rical Industr ial A p p a r a t u s
H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s
Electric Lig hti ng a n d W i r i n g
Radi o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Set s
Tel e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
Radi o a n d C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u ipment
Elec t r o n i c Com p o n e n t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Elec trical P r o d u c t s
Mot o r V e h i c l e s
Ai rcraft
Sh ip a n d Boat Bu i l d i n g a n d Repa i r
Ra i l r o a d Equi pment
Cycles, Bi c y c l e s a n d P a r t s
Other T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ i p m e n t
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
Op tic al and O p h t h a l m i c E q u i pment
P h o t o g r a p h i c Eq uipment a n d S u p p l i e s
Watch es , Clocks and Cloc k O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y and Silv e r w a r e
Musi c a l I n s t r u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g Goo d s

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

144.
276.
104.
42.
826.
91 .
141 .
107.
69.
26.
143.
6.
30..
2/.
1 15.
652.
68.
412.
158.
180 .
37 .
51.
295.
43.
25.
164.
205.
439.
409.
1408.
136.
607.
830.
528.
0.
284.
76.
255.
197.
241.
150.
111.
78.
42.
326.
188.
110.
1865.
1229.
35.
181.
2.
13.
424.
99.
24.
164.
6.
117.
69.

127.
319.
132.
56.
759.
75.
121.
160.
60.
24.
186 .
13.
35.
28.
145.
553.
1 15.
289.
246 .
308.
20.
58.
288.
73.
275.
167.
367.
489.
499.
1606 .
163.
571.
972.
762.
85.
599.
134.
402.
287.
339.
163.
202.
93.
57.
520.
356.
199.
2352.
2128.
65.
160.
5.
26.
542.
120.
40.
283.
13.
144.
91.

298.
751.
211.
80.
925.
130 .
182.
355.
68.
46.
262.
17.
43.
34.
207.
909.
189.
377.
349.
290.
22.
85.
391.
95.
511.
245.
521.
898.
579.
2400.
316.
717.
1456.
990 .
104.
1866.
157.
687 .
496.
498.
288.
316.
307 .
108.
664.
1546 .
365.
4363.
4181.
171.
198.
10 .
86.
687.
241.
100.
693.
26 .
356 .
243.

430 .
1103.
285.
107.
1087.
290 .
229.
498.
84.
80.
389.
22.
67.
54.
268.
1243.
316 .
352.
431.
347 .
25.
97.
536.
123.
789.
310.
708.
1166 .
831.
3392.
411.
930.
1829.
1306 .
128.
3096 .
214.
995.
687.
651.
547.
427.
433.
196.
948.
2739.
539.
6044.
646 1.
243.
220.
14.
132.
874.
348.
154.
1095.
66.
464.
350.

535.
1437.
335.
123.
1146.
331.
26 1.
629.
94.
92.
500 .
26 .
73.
59.
305.
1412.
383.
381.
496 .
380 .
24.
108.
582.
141.
969.
356.
819.
1337.
952.
4317.
490 .
1107.
2078.
1485.
136.
4193.
266 .
1186.
814.
752.
716.
504.
540 .
276.
1105.
3674.
650 .
7224.
7902.
308.
247.
17.
167.
982.
420.
192.
1497 .
97.
562.'
431.

680.
1948.
409.
149.
1287.
397.
312.
827 .
110.
111.
675.
32.
84.
69.
363.
1684.
479.
435.
597 .
442.
26.
126.
669.
170.
1221.
427.
990.
1606 .
1155.
5798.
604.
1377.
2479.
1773.
153.
5842.
347.
1465.
996 .
902.
970 .
6 17.
687.
399.
1313.
5095.
810.
8928.
9809.
392.
291.
21.
214.
1152.
524.
242.
2146.
136.
'70 1.
545.




Table A -1 3 . C o ntinu ed-E xpo rts, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
116
1 17
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
135
136
137
139
140
141
143
144
148
150
152
155
158
160

Sect or Tit le
Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products
Railroad Transportation
Tru c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Ai r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
P i p e l i n e Tran s p o r t a t i o n
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Services
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Except Radio a n d Tv
Rad i o and Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g
E l e c t r i c Uti l i t i e s
G a s U t i 1 i ti es
W a t e r an d Sa n i t a r y Servi c e s
W h o l e s a l e Trade
Reta i l Tra de
Ban k i ng
C r e d i t Ag e n c i e s a n d Fin an cial B r o k e r s
Insurance
Real Esta te
H o t e l s an d Lodging Pla ces
Pe r s o n a l and Rep a i r Servi c e s
Miscellaneous Business Services
Adverti si ng
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profe s s i o n a l S e r v i c e s
M o t i o n Pictu r e s
A m u s e m e n t and R e c r eation S e r v i c e s
E d u c a t i o n a l Se r v i c e s
Post Office
O t h e r Federal E n t erprises
D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Imp orts
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d
R e s t of W o r l d Indus t r y

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

67.
802.
761.
1928.
313.
40.
170.
52.
44.
24.
12.
4.
2279.
34.
2.
12.
47.
588.
0.
5.
44.
25.
297.
494.
0.
6 1.
44.
95.
388.
356.
6698.

158.
894.
753.
1927.
789.
62.
38.
150.
0.
29.
53.
6.
2947.
66.
66.
0.
24.
693.
3.
1.
121.
39.
445.
390.
14.
0.
25.
108.
484.
721.
11128.

277.
1505.
1238.
2847.
1302.
107.
55.
239.
0.
34.
54.
7.
4870.
95.
120.
0.
35.
997.
4.
1.
192.
49.
520.
548.
19.
0.
16.
85.
927.
1467.
14625.

393.
2062.
1655.
3119.
1954.
145.
67.
328.
0.
67.
87.
10.
6466.
132.
164.
0.
48.
1317.
5.
1.
273.
83.
721.
605.
26.
0.
14.
80.
1022.
2263.
19870.

475.
2448.
1996.
3426.
2583.
17 1.
78.
382.
0.
77.
103.
1 1.
7648.
156.
191.
0.
56.
1516.
6.
1.
334.
100.
836.
643.
30.
0.
12.
73.
1207.
2883.
24004.

592.
3010.
2481.
3976.
3723.
208.
94.
463.
0.
94.
127 .
13.
9395.
191.
232.
0.
68.
1826.
7.
1.
434.
124.
1012.
728.
36.
0.
11.
71.
1495.
3720.
30419.




Table A -14. Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
22
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59

Sector Title
Da i r y and P o u l t r y P r o d u c t s
Meat and Li vestock P r o d u c t s
Co tton
Food and Feed G r a i n s
Other A g r i cultural P r o d u c t s
Fores t r y and Fishery P r o d u c t s
A g r i c u l t u r a l , F o r e s t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Iron and Ferr o a l l o y M i n i n g
Copper Or e Mining
Other Nonf e r r o u s Ore M i n i n g
Coal M i n i n g
Cr u d e P e t r oleum and N a t ural Gas
St o n e and Clay M i n i n g a n d Q u a r r y i n g
Ch emical and F e r t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g
Or d n a n c e
Me at Pr o d u c t s
Dairy Produ c t s
Canned and Frozen Foods
Gra in Mill P r o ducts
Bak e r y Pro duc ts
Suga r
Confectionary Products
Al c o h o l i c Beverages
Soft Drinks and F l a v o r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s
To bacco M a n u f a c t u r e r s
Fabrics, Ya rn and T h r e a d M i l l s
Flo or Co verings
Miscellaneous Textile Goods
H o s i e r y and Knit Goo d s
Ap par el
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Loggi ng
Sawmills and Planing Mills
Mil lwo rk , Plywood and O t h e r Uiood P r o d u c t s
Mood e n C o n tainers
Other Furn itu re and F i x t u r e s
Paper Products
Paperboard
N e w s p a p e r Print i n g a n d P u b l i s h i n g
P e r i odical and Boo k Printing, P u b l i s h i n g
Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing
Indus tri al I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
Agricu l t u r a l Che m i c a l s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s
Plastics Materials and Synthetic Rubber
Syn t h e t i c Fibers
Dru gs
Cl e a n i n g and Toi let P r e p a r a t i o n s
Pain t s and All i e d P r o d u c t s

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

-2.
-330.
-31.
-52.
-493.
-778.
0.
-614.
-19.
-475.
-4.
-1629.
-153.
-97.
-30.
-950.
-77.
-304.
-41.
-13.
-1168.
-85.
-480.
-0.
-193.
-125.
-498.
-54.
-538.
-14.
-60 1.
-39.
-55.
-781.
-441.
-7.
-52.
-1402.
-15.
-2.
-86 .
-13.
-302.
-39.
-85.
-19.
-57.
-69.
-17.
-1.

-0.
-343.
-36.
-37 .
-683.
-885.
-7.
-7 19.
-48.
-403.
-4.
-1484.
-164.
-85.
-123.
-1133.
-119.
-412.
-46.
-28.
-1081.
-108.
-7 19.
-12.
-406.
-42.
-635.
-60.
-481.
-24.
-1029.
-73.
-63.
-891.
-544.
-4.
-127.
-1703.
-3.
-5.
-110.
-33.
-579.
-69.
-137.
-48.
-97.
-136.
-28.
-1.

-2.
-336.
-4.
-38.
-788.
-957.
-6.
-569.
-18.
-842.
-1.
-3613.
-356.
-227.
-98.
-1333.
-281.
-517.
-67.
-42.
-1012.
-154.
-904.
-20.
-363.
-30.
-828.
-118.
-409.
-126.
-2330.
-119.
-22.
-1198.
-772.
-5.
-344.
-1860.
-6.
-12.
-142.
-76.
-1131.
-204.
-159.
-151.
-167.
-325.
-51.
-2.

-1.
-342.
-5.
-34.
-859.
-1031.
-7.
-595.
-21.
-902.
-2.
-7148.
-416.
-267.
-92.
-1731.
-366.
-587.
-75.
-49.
-86Z.
-165.
-988.
-24.
-396.
-26.
-869.
-148.
-335.
-146.
-3065.
-152.
-23.
-1294.
-824.
-5.
-460.
-1948.
-7.
-19.
-163.
-124.
-1515.
-315.
-174.
-228.
-210.
-469.
-66.
-2.

-1.
-342.
-5.
-29.
-880.
-957.
-8.
-588.
-22.
-909.
-2.
-7798.
-460 .
-296.
-91.
-1618.
-438.
-626.
-78.
-53.
-752.
-167.
-1016.
-26.
-407.
-22.
-856.
-168.
-290.
-161.
-3488.
-178.
-23.
-1317.
-826.
-4.
-555.
-1932.
-8.
-26.
-176.
-178.
-1856.
-436.
-178.
-309.
-245.
-612.
-78.
-2.

-1.
-364.
-6.
-28.
-956.
-994.
-8.
-618.
-25.
-968.
-2.
-9505.
-519.
-334.
-102.
-2056.
-545.
-704.
-86.
-59.
-717.
-176.
-1093.
-31.
-435.
-20 .
-894.
-199.
-269.
-180 .
-4229.
-220.
-24.
-1421.
-880.
-4.
-680.
-2036.
-9.
-38.
-202.
-264.
-2366.
-621.
-194.
-425.
-298.
-827.
-95.
-2.

Table A -1 4. C o ntinu ed-Im p orts, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.

oo
IS)




60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
— 97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
1 11
1 12
113
114
115
116
117
120
121

Sector Titl e
P e t r o l e u m Re f i n i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
T i r e s and Inn er Tube s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber Pr o d u c t s
P l a s t i c P r o ducts
L e a t h e r T a n n i n g and I n d u strial L e a ther
F o o t w e a r and Othe r Leat h e r P r o d u c t s
Glass
C e m e n t and C o n c r e t e P r o d u c t s
S t r u c t u r a l Cla y Products
P o t t e r y and Rela t e d Pr o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and C l a y P r o d u c t s
B l a s t F u r naces and Basic Steel P r o d u c t s
Ir on and Steel Fou ndries and F o r g i n g s
P r i m a r y Copp e r and Coppe r P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y Al u m i n u m and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
O t h e r P r i m a r y N o n f errous P r o d u c t s
Metal Containers
H e a t i n g A p p a r a t u s and P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s
F a b r i c a t e d Structural Metal
S c r e w M a c h i n e Pr o d u c t s
Met a l Sta m p i n g s
Cut ler y, Han d Tool s and G e n e r a l H a r d w a r e
O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d Pro du cts
En gines, Turbi n e s and G e n e r a t o r s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
Construction Mining and Oilfield Machinery
M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equ ipment
Met a l W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y
S p e cial Indus t r y Ma c h i n e s
G e n e r a l In dustrial M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Shop Pr o d u c t s
C o m p u t e r s and Periph er al E q u i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s an d Other Offi c e E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e In d u s t r y Ma c h i n e s
E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equipment
Ele c t r i c a l In dustrial A p p a r a t u s
Household Appliances
E l e c t r i c Light i n g a n d W i r i n g
Ra d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
Telephone and Telegraph Apparatus
Ra d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
Electronic Components
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Elec tri ca l P r o d u c t s
Motor Vehicles
Ai rcra ft
S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r
R a i l r o a d Eq uip ment
Cycl es , Bi c y c l e s and Part s
O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i pment
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
M e d i c a l and De ntal I n s t r u m e n t s
O p t ical and O p h t h a l m i c E q u ipment
P h o t o g r a p h i c Equ i p m e n t and S u p p l i e s
W a t ches, Cloc k s and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e
M u s i c a l Instr u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s
Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products
Railroad Transportation
Water Transportation
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n

1963
-1056.
-36.
-116.
-47 .
-87.
-209.
-155.
-24.
-43.
-128.
-97.
-1112.
-23.
-443.
-239.
-775.
-12.
-7.
0.
-62.
-5.
-124.
-128.
-39.
-241.
-35.
-15.
-91.
-184.
-65.
0.
-72.
-55.
-3.
-28.
-51.
-88.
-79.
-223.
-25.
-59.
-6 1.
-75.
-731.
-129.
-14.
-2.
-121.
-6 .
-37.
-13.
-58.
-100.
-119.
-309.
-217.
-143.
-35.
24.
-406 .

1967
-1309.
-114.
-181.
-100.
-119.
-453.
-223.
-29.
-39.
-214.
-161.
-2166.
-48.
-1008.
-340 .
-1347.
-9.
-34.
-48.
-114.
-63.
-160 .
-288.
-116.
-40 1.
-127.
-32.
-407 .
-507 .
-304.
-3.
-184.
-93.
-18.
-152.
-110.
-180.
-120.
-591.
-47.
-198.
-178.
-140 .
-2963.
-385.
-73.
-9.
-217.
-49.
-77.
-28.
-118.
-163.
-218.
-410.
-362.
-366.
-27.
87.
-688.

1973
-2871.
-558.
-377 .
-363.
-129.
-1037 .
-362.
-119.
-80 .
-306 .
-206 .
-3192.
-63.
-630 .
-282.
-1383.
-23.
-19.
-79.
-234.
-32.
-330 .
-774.
-256.
-566 .
-288.
-99.
-381.
-799.
-763.
0.
-301.
-626 .
-91.
-66.
-197 .
-549.
-378.
-2432.
-132.
-449.
-1025.
-392.
-9703.
-754.
-57.
-32.
-888.
-100 .
-288.
-86.
-300 .
-443.
-369.
-596.
-813.
-574.
-32.
408.
-1183.

1980
-2408.
-954.
-375.
-547.
-142.
-1571.
-424.
-136 .
-91.
-362.
-233.
-4003.
-70.
-593.
-306 .
-1484.
-25.
-24.
-92.
-322.
-38.
-404.
-1094.
-368.
-665.
-422.
-176.
-444.
-941.
-1039.
0.
-362.
-1005.
-184.
-77.
-272.
-814.
-562.
-3818.
-195.
-660 .
-1566.
-604.
-12187.
-1013.
-66.
-62.
-1195.
-138.
-443.
-130.
-426.
-645.
-476.
-693.
-1118.
-673.
-32.
598.
-1478.

1985
-3417.
-1364.
-540 .
-741.
-145.
-2140.
-464.
-145.
-97 .
-399.
-248.
-4637.
-74.
-536 .
-320 .
-1503.
-26.
-27 .
-100 .
-404.
-41.
-459.
-1403.
-480.
-737.
-56 1.
-251.
-487.
-1045.
-1291.
0.
-412.
-1353.
-282.
-86 .
-344.
-1088.
-753.
-477 1.
-260 .
-876.
-2098.
-833.
-13752.
-1244.
-72.
-106.
-1736.
-173.
-612.
-176.
-549.
-849.
-564.
-766 .
-1402.
-744.
-30.
706 .
-1686.

1990
-4127
-1887
-764
-1037
-158
-3003
-534
-163
-109
-462
-278
-5622
-82
-519
-354
-16 14
-29
-32
-115
-526
-47
-547
-1866
-648
-834
-764
-366
-547
-1184
-1669
0
-476
-1827
-458
-97
-450
-1503
-1042
-6 164
-358
-1202
-2910
-1184
-17137
-1591
-81
-181
-2129
-225
-869
-247
-732
-1156
-698
-872
-1826
-841
-30
850
-2001




Table A -14. Continued—Imports, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

—
Pro j e c t e d
No.
126
127
129
133
155
156
158
160

Sect or Title
Electric Ut i l i t i e s
Gas Uti l i t i e s
W h o l e s a l e Trade
I n s u rance
D i r e c t l y All o c a t e d Impo r t s
Bu s i n e s s Travel, E n t e r t a i n m e n t ,
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d
Rest of W o r l d I n d u s t r y

1963

and Gifts

-9.
-131 .
1520.
53.
-11799.
-343.
-606 .
-1480.

1967
-19.
-168.
2336.
142.
-14625.
-432.
-1129.
-2269.

1973

1980

-94.
-284.
4004.
346 .
-15551 .
-468.
-1189.
-4442.

-109.
-281 .
4891 .
496.
-15889.
-496 .
-1317.
-8807.

1985
-120.
-249.
5537.
644.
-17966.
-496.
-1372.
-12164.

1990
-135.
-256.
6575.
866 .
-21353.
-527.
-1479.
-16142.




Table A -1 5 . Government purchases, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3-to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53

Sect o r Title
D a i r y and P o u l t r y Produ c t s
M e a t a n d L i v e stock Produ c t s
Cotton
F o o d and Feed Grai n s
O t h e r Agricu l t u r a l P r o ducts
F o r e s t r y a n d Fish e r y Pr o d u c t s
Agr i c u l t u r a l , Fo r e s t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Ir on and F e r r o a l l o y Min i n g
O t h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore Mini n g
Co al M i n i n g
C r u d e P e t r o l e u m a n d Natu ral Gas
S t o n e and Clay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g
C h e m i c a l and Fert i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g
N e w and R e s idential Bui l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
N e w Nonresi denti al Building C o n s t r u c t i o n
N e w Pub l i c U t i l i t y Co n s t r u c t i o n
N e w H i g h w a y Construction
All Other New C o n struction
M a i n t e n a n c e and Rep a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n
Ordnance
C o m p l e t e G u i d e d Missiles
M e a t Pr o d u c t s
D a i r y Produ c t s
C a n n e d and Froz en Foods
G r a i n Mill Produ c t s
B a k e r y P r o ducts
Sugar
C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s
A l c o h o l i c Beverages
S o f t Drinks and Flavorings
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o ducts
Tobacco Manufacturers
Fabri cs , Yarn and Thre ad M i l l s
Flo o r Cov e r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s T e x tile Goods
H o s i e r y and Kni t Goods
A p p arel
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Fabricated T e x t i l e P r o d u c t s
S a w m i l l s and P l a n i n g Mills
M i l l work, P l y w o o d and Other blood P r o d u c t s
blooden Cont a i n e r s
H o u s e h o l d Furniture
O t h e r F u r niture and Fix tu res
P a p e r Pr o d u c t s
Paperboard
N e w s p a p e r P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
P e r i o d i c a l and Book Printing, P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Pr i n t i n g a n d P u b l i s h i n g
Indu s t r i a l I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i 9 als
A g r i c u l t u r a l Che m i c a l s

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

18.
5.
488.
-537.
-81.
-737.
39.
7.
386.
85.
0.
-54.
37.
1245.
9663.
3625.
10938.
4933.
7 178.
1933.
5557.
300.
278.
104.
28.
54.
6.
7.
2.
31.
98.
-1.
69.
5.
8.
0.
162.
96.
0.
12.
6.
47.
304.
210.
32.
3.
588.
274.
1142.
85.

27.
9.
-881.
-541.
403.
-811.
49.
-70.
157.
100.
11.
-52.
41.
1686.
12920.
4621 .
1 1675.
4510.
7875.
4731 .
5132.
414.
777 .
179.
97.
84.
8.
12.
0.
44.
110.
-1.
120.
10.
13.
0.
227.
392.
3.
47.
33.
126.
528.
382.
70.
8.
894.
435.
1013.
192.

80.
13.
-61.
-3586.
373.
-524.
47 .
-1.
14.
81.
29.
-29.
28.
1393.
1 1226.
4500.
9540 .
3934.
7151.
3288.
2414.
829.
910.
374.
58.
184.
16 .
26.
0.
107.
184.
-2.
140.
9.
8.
14.
333.
116.
13.
34.
14.
146.
748.
512.
58.
10.
1189.
670 .
604.
131.

85.
17.
31.
-605.
234.
-688.
62.
0.
111.
79.
85.
-68.
51.
1401.
12036.
5197.
8343.
3972.
9050.
2471.
2664.
955.
427 .
405.
100.
204.
10.
33.
0.
109.
200.
-3.
168.
15.
12.
15.
415.
134.
16.
34.
27.
165.
992.
594.
67.
12.
1887.
943.
916.
163.

89.
19.
41.
10.
246.
-671.
63.
0.
124.
79.
138.
-63.
46.
1360.
10777.
5552.
8337.
4198.
9659.
2645.
2807.
1036.
496.
440.
1 13.
219.
10.
35.
0.
121.
229.
-4.
168.
16.
13.
14.
447.
138.
15.
36.
27.
169.
924.
614.
69.
10.
1646.
1013.
1088.
164.

1990
94.
20.
41.
67.
252.
-658.
59.
0.
128.
80.
156.
-63.
47.
1237.
9776.
5794.
8348.
3968.
9951 .
2779.
3159.
1125.
556.
473.
110.
232.
10.
37.
0.
138.
249.
-4.
175.
18.
13.
15.
462.
143.
16.
36.
36.
162.
864.
614.
70.
9.
1450.
1083.
1232.
157.




Table A-15.

Continued—Government purchases, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68

69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86

87

88

89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99

100
10 1
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109

110

111
1 12

113

Se ct or Tit l e
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chem ical P r o d u c t s
Pl a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s a n d S y n t h e t i c R u b b e r
S y n t h e t i c Fibers
Drugs
Cl e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
Paints and Al lied P r o d u c t s
P e t r o l e u m Refining a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
Tires and Inner Tubes
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubb er P r o d u c t s
Plas t i c Products
Le ather Tann i n g and I n d u strial L e a t h e r
Footwear an d Other L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s
Gla ss
Cement and Concr e t e P r o d u c t s
S t r u ctural Cla y P r o d u c t s
P o t t e r y and Related P r o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s
Bl ast Fu r n a c e s and Ba s i c Steel P r o d u c t s
Iron and Steel F o u n d r i e s and F o r g i n g s
P r i mary Copper and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s
P r i mary Aluminum and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
Ot her P r i m a r y N o n f e r r o u s P r o d u c t s
Met al C o n t ainers
H e a ting A p p a ratus a n d P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s
Fabr i c a t e d St ructural Meta l
Screw M a c h i n e Pr o d u c t s
Met al S t a m p i n g s
Cutlery, Ha nd Tools a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e
Oth er Fabricated P r o d u c t s
Engines, Turbines and G e n e r a t o r s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
Con s t r u c t i o n Min i n g a n d O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y
Mater i a l Handling Eq u i p m e n t
Metal W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y
Spec ia l In dus try M a c h i n e s
Gene ra l Indus tri al M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Sho p Produ c t s
C o m p u t e r s and P e r ipheral E q u i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Other O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t
S e r vice Ind ust ry M a c h i n e s
Electric Trans m i s s i o n Eq u i p m e n t
Elect ric al Indu st ria l A p p a r a t u s
H o u s e h o l d A p p l iances
Electric Li ghting a n d W i r i n g
Ra dio and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
Ra dio and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equ i p m e n t
Electronic Components
M i s c e l l a n e o u s E l e ctrical P r o d u c t s
Mo t o r V e h icles
Ai rcraft
Sh ip an d Boat Bu i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r
R a i l r o a d Equ ip ment
Cycles, Bicyc l e s a n d P a r t s
Oth er T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ i p m e n t
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
Opti ca l a n d O p h t h a l m i c Equ i p m e n t
P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment a n d S u p p l i e s
Wat che s, C l o c k s a n d Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

168.
21.
17.
376.
137.
37 .
1081.
127.
100.
57.
1.
9.
64.
-0.
-0 .
10 .
27 .
61.
6.
140 .
25.
-232.
9.
5.
81.
25.
21.
43.
32.
267.
45.
342.
100.
156 .
37.
359.
163.
497.
188.
147.
344.
299.
32.
66.
95.
174.
5821.
390.
188.
1709.
10227.
1491.
20 .
7.
2.
586.
146.
36 .
277.
5.

876 .
-5.
31.
656 .
262.
-46.
1634.
212.
346.
1 15.
10 .
24.
100 .
1.
-0.
19.
31 .
282.
87 .
104.
64.
-198.
16 .
8.
265.
180 .
39.
137.
248.
557 .
75.
542.
133.
242.
78.
400 .
289.
485.
353.
276 .
491.
540.
50.
158.
152.
251.
6744.
697 .
317.
2353.
10260.
1874.
19.
9.
3.
666.
277.
103.
527.
1 16.

509.
-27.
8.
1229.
375.
40.
1732.
215.
173.
98.
15.
46 .
142.
6.
-0.
27.
22.
59.
1 1.
106.
134.
-20 1.
12.
11.
366 .
90.
38.
145.
193.
214.
74.
248.
126.
208.
69.
388.
303.
733.
450.
336 .
443.
457 .
72.
222.
179.
141.
5233.
468.
27 1.
2112.
6056 .
2240 .
35.
11.
9.
556.
355.
134.
519.
80.

630.
16.
36.
20 17.
487.
147.
1829.
276.
310.
118.
18.
53.
204.
0.
-1.
34.
22.
75.
11.
97.
157.
8.
7.
15.
334.
94.
39.
203.
197.
198.
95.
332.
124.
237.
79.
412.
403.
1033.
539.
496.
581.
549.
100.
26 0.
220.
199.
5953.
594.
462.
2744.
7 196.
3209.
34.
12.
11.
709.
471.
222.
613.
49.

744.
15.
44.
2586.
470 .
149.
1784.
293.
331.
125.
17.
54.
224.
-0.
-1.
33.
22.
81.
11.
115.
180.
9.
7.
14.
370.
114.
17.
213.
206.
238.
92.
428.
131.
253.
85.
461.
359.
1268.
575.
522.
657.
602.
103.
237.
233.
225.
5784.
690 .
584.
2817.
7555.
2818.
34.
13.
1 1.
849.
530.
251.
663.
54.

1990
884
16
55
3153
445
148
1892
290
362
132
26
56
244
-0
_1
4
32
22
87
11
126
206
9
8
15
410
126
3
218
237
256
89
495
146
269
82
508
332
1407
562
548
765
665
105
215
234
248
6232
77 1
625
3018
8338
296 1
38
13
12
967
593
276
7 18
57




Table A -1 5.

Continued—Government purchases, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
m
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
12<t
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
135
136
137
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
152
154
155
156
157
158
159
160

Sector Tit le
Jewelry and Silverware
M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g Go o d s
Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products
Railroad Transportation
Local Tr ansit a n d I n t ercity B u s e s
Truck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Excep t Radio a n d Tv
R a d i o and Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g
Electric Utilities
Gas Uti l i t i e s
W a t e r a n d S a n i t a r y Servi c e s
W h o l e s a l e Tra de
Retail Tra de
Ba nk ing
C r e d i t Ag e n c i e s and Financial B r o k e r s
Insurance
Rea l Esta te
H o t e l s and Lodg i n g Pla ces
P e r s o n a l an d Rep a i r Se r v i c e s
Miscellaneous Business Services
Adverti sing
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Pr o f e s s i o n a l S e r v i c e s
A u t o m o b i l e Repai r
M o t i o n P i c tures
A m u s e m e n t and R e c r eation S e r v i c e s
Do ctors' and Den tis ts ' S e r v i c e s
Hospitals
O t h e r Medical S e r v i c e s
E d u c a t i o n a l Se r v i c e s
Nonprofit Organizations
Post Office
O t h e r Federal Enter p r i s e s
O t h e r Sta t e and Local G o v e r n m e n t
D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Imports
B u s i n e s s Travel, Enternainment, a n d G i f t s
O f f i c e Suppl i e s
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d
G o v e r n m e n t Industry
Re s t of W o r l d I n d ustry

1963

1967

4.
72.
81.
296.
380.
970 .
343.
656.
18.
805.
4.
1193.
326 .
18.
1626.
-478.
17 18.
130.
240.
812.
7 15.
79.
3467.
32.
1003.
174.
106.
64.
376.
847.
568.
1683.
706.
403.
2.
43.
2596.

11 .
94.
207.
592.
612.
1975.
842.
1469.
29.
1 177.
10.
1832.
356.
107.
2746.
-522.
1696.
150 .
339.
1049.
830.
57.
4171.
34.
1437.
263.
161.
-395.
730.
1538.
1236.
2054.
941.
706 .
13.
39.
4029.

0.

485.
484.
100378.
-1162.

0.

630.
1224.
122065.
-505.

1973
19.
186.
257 .
393.
914.
1513.
518.
1091.
66.
1939.
21.
2847.
869.
1 16.
3275.
-1642.
2817.
330 .
623.
1939.
451.
104.
5401.
78.
1558.
365.
132.
25.
1821.
3192.
3170.
1963.
744.
916 .
19.
57.
3131 .
4.
770.
745.
134758.
-626.

1980
24.
252.
298.
410 .
1330.
1621.
50 1.
1296.
60.
2932.
26 .
3681.
1220 .
80.
3936.
-256 1.
3805.
459.
911.
2620.
291.
186.
7564.
109.
2016.
525.
173.
14.
2751.
4498.
4436 .
1599.
912.
1161.
18.
596.
2261 .
3.
1233.
277 .
154298.
-1163.

1985
21.
233.
288.
430 .
1212.
1676 .
516.
1337.
69.
3358.
20.
3299.
1145.
20.
4150.
-1975.
4556 .
517.
857.
2944.
622.
194.
8611.
1 18.
2210.
547.
168.
-18.
2907.
4988.
4705.
1834.
1038.
1254.
18.
747.
2152.
3.
1281.
509.
162760.
-1090.

1990
18.
212.
269.
439.
1096 .
1714.
564.
1384.
73.
37 12.
15.
3093.
1096 .
-51.
4448.
-1544.
4991 .
544.
810.
3132.
847.
202.
9394.
123.
2335.
560 .
166.
-33.
3186.
5725.
5106.
1817.
1106.
1330 .
52.
762.
2121.
3.
1264.
687.
169406.
-1105.




Table A -16. Federal Government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3 to 1990
(Million* of 1972 dollar*)

Projected
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10
11
12
13
15
16
18
19
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
35
36
37
38
39
40
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

Sector Title
Dairy an d Poultry P r o d u c t s
Meat and Li ves tock P r o d u c t s
Cott on
Food and Feed Grain s
Other Agricultural P r o d u c t s
F o r estry and F i s hery P r o d u c t s
Ag ric ultural, Forestry and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Iron and F e r r oalloy M i n i n g
Other N o n f errous Ore M i n i n g
Coal M i n i n g
Crude Pet r o l e u m and Natural Gas
St o n e and Clay M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g
New and R e s idential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
New Nonr e s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
New H i g hway Co n s t r u c t i o n
All Oth er New C o n s t r u c t i o n
M a i n t e n a n c e and R e p a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n
Ordna n c e
Co m p l e t e Guided M i s s i l e s
Meat Produ c t s
Dairy P r o d u c t s
Can n e d and Frozen Food s
Gra in Mill Produ c t s
Bak e r y Produ c t s
Sug ar
C o n f e c t i o n a r y P r o ducts
A l c o h o l i c Bev e r a g e s
Soft Drin ks and F l a v o r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s
Fabrics, Yarn and T h r e a d M i l l s
Flo or C o v e rings
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Textile Go o d s
H o s i e r y and Knit Goods
Ap par el
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Sawmills and Planing Mills
Mill wor k, Plyw o o d and Oth e r Ulood P r o d u c t s
W o o d e n Cont a i n e r s
H o u s e h o l d Furniture
Other F u r n iture a n d F i x t u r e s
Paper Pr o d u c t s
Paperboard
Newspaper Printing and Publishing
P e r iodical a n d Book Pri nt ing, P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Pr i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
In dus trial Ino r g a n i c and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
Agricu l t u r a l Che m i c a l s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Che mi cal P r o d u c t s
P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c R u b b e r
S y n t h e t i c Fibers

1963

1967

6.
4.
488.
-546.
-144.
-742.
25.
7.
386.
69.
0.
0.
195.
1734.
290 .
4025.
2237.
1927.
5557.
136.
194.
26.
18.
16.
2.
1.
2.
14.
46.
40.
5.
10.
0.
103.
84.
0.
10.
6.
27.
74.
75.
14.
0.
93.
109.
1104.
14.
158.
21.
17.

8.
5.
-881.
-552.
318.
-817.
14.
-70.
157.
72.
1 1.
10 .
41.
1097 .
340 .
3064.
2405.
4722.
5132.
178.
667 .
67.
81.
33.
3.
4.
0.
20.
39.
83.
10 .
15.
0.
168.
370.
3.
43.
33.
88.
143.
163.
42.
2.
42.
227.
962.
109.
836.
-5.
31.

1973
51.
11.
-6 1.
-3602.
246.
-536.
12.
- 1.
14.
31.
29.
12.
1 18.
1100.
250.
3062.
1994.
3277.
2414.
426.
753.
190 .
32.
102.
8.
14.
0.
67.
72.
36.
7.
10.
14.
165.
75.
13.
27.
14.
81.
116.
125.
15.
2.
48.
242.
543.
24.
487.
-27.
8.

1980

1985

1990

55
10.
31
-617.
64.
-703.
10.
0.
111.
35.
85.
0.
135.
1771.
190.
30 10.
2866.
2457.
2664.
46 1
198.
178.
74.
106.
5.
17.
0.
58.
66.
42.
12.
15.
15.
167.
77.
16.
26.
27.
75.
10 1
104.
15.
1
52.
296.
844.
20.
608.
15.
36.

53.
10 .
41.
-2.
66.
-688.
10.
0.
124.
40.
138.
0.
128.
1687.
166.
3177.
3046.
2630.
2807.
454.
207.
175.
85.
103.
4.
16.
0.
63.
68.
40.
13.
16.
14.
179.
80 .
15.
29.
27.
91.
129.
129.
16 .
1.
6 1.
344.
1004.
26.
717.
14.
44.

54.
11.
41.
55.
7 1.
-677 .
11.
0.
128.
45.
156.
0.
130.
1560 .
144.
2921.
3359.
2764.
3159.
456.
217.
175.
82.
102.
4.
17.
0.
75.
67.
39.
14.
16.
15.
177.
81.
16.
30 .
36.
92.
141.
139.
18.
1.
65.
389.
1132.
26.
854.
15.
55.




Table A -16. Continued—Federal Government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Million* of 1972 dollar*)

Projected

_________________

t

No.

57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
1 12
113
114
115
116
117

Sector Titl e

Dr u g s
C l e a n i n g and Toil e t P r e p a r a t i o n s
P a i n t s and Alli e d Pr o d u c t s
Petroleum Refining and Related Products
T i r e s and Inn er Tubes
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber Pr o d u c t s
P l a s t i c Pr o d u c t s
L e a t h e r T a n n i n g and Industrial L e a t h e r
F o o t w e a r and Other L e a ther P r o d u c t s
Glass
Cement and Concrete Products
Pottery and Related Products
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Sto n e and C l a y P r o d u c t s
Bl a s t Furna c e s and Basi c Ste el P r o d u c t s
Ir on and Steel Foundries and F o r g i n g s
P r i m a r y Cop p e r and Cop p e r P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y A l u m i n u m and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
O t h e r P r i m a r y Nonf e r r o u s P r o d u c t s
Metal C o n t a i n e r s
Heating Apparatus and Plumbing Fixtures
F a b r i c a t e d S t r uctural Met al
S c r e w M a c h i n e Pr o d u c t s
Met a l Sta m p i n g s
Cutle ry , Hand Tool s and Gene r a l H a r d w a r e
O t h e r Fabr i c a t e d P r o d u c t s
En gines, Turbi n e s a n d G e n e r a t o r s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y
M a t e r i a l H a n d l i n g Equ ip ment
Met a l M o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y
Special Industry M a c h i n e s
General Indus tr ial M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Shop Produ c t s
C o m p u t e r s and Peripheral Equ i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Other O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e Indus t r y M a c h i n e s
E l e c t r i c Tr a n s m i s s i o n Eq u i p m e n t
E l e ctrical Indust ri al A p p a r a t u s
Household Appliances
El e c t r i c Light i n g and M i r i n g
Ra d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g S e t s
T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
Ra d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
E l e c t r o n i c Comp o n e n t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ele ct rical P r o d u c t s
M o t o r Ve h i c l e s
Ai rcra ft
S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r
R a i l r o a d Equipment
Cycle s, Bi c y c l e s a n d Parts
O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equipment
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
M e d i c a l a n d Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
Optical and O p h t h a l m i c E q u i p m e n t
P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment a n d S u p p l i e s
Matches, Clo c k s a n d Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y a n d Silv e r w a r e
M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s
Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products
R a i l r o a d Tran s p o r t a t i o n

1963

92.
32.
36 .
840.
56 .
23.
31.
1.
6.
20.
0.
1.
26 .
58.
6.
140.
25.
-232.
9.
5.
81.
25.
20 .
25.
38.
263.
15.
157.
100.
134.
29.
348.
74.
457 .
100 .
56.
285.
254.
12.
18.
71 .
173.
5747.
376.
163.
870.
10226.
1485.
8.
1.
2.
519.
75.
23.
170.
3.
-3.
5.
38.
239.

1967

141.
77.
-50 .
1254.
113.
245.
78.
10.
21.
30.
1.
3.
30 .
279.
87.
104.
64.
-198.
16.
8.
265.
180 .
25.
92.
253.
547 .
36 .
393.
132.
204.
62.
383.
143.
413.
202.
117.
434.
488.
16 .
65.
106 .
250.
6620 .
675.
282.
1300 .
10258.
1867.
8.
1.
3.
560.
164.
80.
347.
112.
-3.
11.
129.
507.

1973

1980

1985

1990

169.
85.
35.
1108.
75.
32.
39.
15.
41 .
24.
6.
2.
20 .
55.
11.
106.
133.
-20 1.
12.
11.
366 .
90.
12.
84.
197 .
207 .
10.
94.
124.
149.
41.
374.
50 .
606 .
223.
64.
306 .
340 .
15.
62.
102.
140.
4992.
442.
213.
739.
6053.
2229.
8.
1.
9.
390 .
147.
96.
231.
73.
-3.
10 .
124.
248.

193.
89.
142.
1295.
66 .
1 14.
49.
18.
46.
36.
0.
2.
19.
70.
11.
97.
156.
8.
7.
15.
334.
94.
14.
101 .
205.
184.
7.
78.
122.
170.
45.
391.
80.
851 .
220.
80.
434.
421.
17.
65.
113.
198.
5583.
559.
372.
773.
7 193.
3196.
10.
0.
1 1.
462.
162.
167.
209.
39.
0.
12.
1 18.
209.

224.
100.
144.
1290 .
84.
124.
62.
17 .
*5.
47 .
0.
3.
20.
74.
1 1.
115.
180.
9.
7.
14.
370 .
1 14.
16 .
115.
218.
223.
9.
90 .
129.
193.
58.
440 .
87 .
1106 .
291.
88.
506 .
474.
18.
75.
142.
224.
5430.
655.
432.
837.
7552.
2805.
10.
0.
11.
553.
176.
203-.
237.
44.
0.
13.
147.
239.

253.
102.
143.
1433.
80.
137.
72.
26.
46.
56 .
0.
3.
20.
80 .
11.
126.
205.
9.
8.
15.
410.
126 .
17.
128.
250 .
240.
9.
102.
145.
211.
60.
485.
101.
1262.
300 .
96.
590.
528.
17.
79.
157.
247.
5881.
735.
46 1.
899.
8334.
2947.
11.
0.
12.
624.
193.
234.
270.
48.
0.
14.
161.
254.




Table A -16. C ontinued-Federal Governm ent purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Million* of 1972 dollar*)

Proj ected
No.

1 18
119

120
121
122
124
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
135
136
137
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
152
154
155
156
157
158
159
16 0

Sec-tor Ti-fcle
Local Transit and I n t e r c i t y B u s e s
Truck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Ai r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s E x c e p t Rad i o a n d Tv
E l e ctric U t i l i t i e s
Gas Uti l i t i e s
W a t e r and Sa n i t a r y S e r v i c e s
W h o l e s a l e Trade
Reta il Tra de
Bank ing
Cred it A g e ncies a n d Fin a n c i a l B r o k e r s
I n s u rance
Real Esta te
H o t e l s and Lodging P l a c e s
Pe rso nal a n d Repair S e r v i c e s
Miscellaneous Business Services
Adverti sing
Miscellaneous Professional Services
A u t o m o b i l e Re pair
M o t i o n Pictu r e s
*
Amu s e m e n t an d R e c r e a t i o n S e r v i c e s
Doc t o r s ’ and D e n tists’ Services
Hospi tals
Other Me dical S e r v i c e s
Educational Se r v i c e s
N o n profit O r g a n i z a t i o n s
Post Off i c e
Other Federal E n t e r p r i s e s
Other State and Local G o v e r n m e n t
D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Impo r t s
B u s i n e s s Travel, E n t e r n a i n m e n t , a n d Gif t s
O f f i c e Su ppl ies
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d
G o v e r n m e n t Industry
Rest of Wo r l d In d u s t r y

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

32.
778.
325.
503.
13.
403.
212.
63.
45.
1030 .
-24.
716.
- 10 .
43.
333.
6 13.
37.
2530.
3.
705.
34.
81.
76.
94.
189.
62.
1582.
664.
205.
2.
25.
2596 .
0.
251.
-320.
4766 1.
-1162.

40.
1644.
814.
1224.
2 1.
636.
292.
53.
52.
1794.
-26 .
673.
6.
50 .
503.
886 .
- 11.
2815.
2.
981.
76.
121.
98.
67.
257.
59.
1870.
889.
431.
13.
11.
4029.
0.
281.
-256.
55828.
-505.

34.
927 .
467.
669.
52.
854.
273.
79.
78.
1659.
9.
380.
- 11.
35.
429.
6 11.
-2 2 .
2768.
7.
662.
36 .
69.
51.
76.
260 .
54.
1602.
6 19.
304.
19.
13.
3131.
4.
145.
-171.
47508.
-626.

30.
823.
418.
7 18.
43.
1121.
313.
94.
120.
1804.
-38.
356.
- 10.
36.
322.
594.
24.
3142.
8.
690.
41.
86.
65.
100.
273.
51.
1090 .
745.
291.
18.
538.
2261.
3.
206.
-796 .
49197.
-1163.

37 .
918.
431.
764.
52.
1273.
325.
92.
1 16 .
206 1 .
-35.
442.
- 12.
46.
424.
648.
28.
3789.
8.
824.
48.
9 1.
34.
105.
331.
64.
1346.
867.
329.
18.
692.
2152.
3.
255.
-432.
50239.
-1090.

40 .
98 1 .
477.
818.
56 .
1462.
365.
98.
118.
2325.
-35.
411.
- 11.
48.
436 .
686 .
30 .
4175.
9
882.
5 1.
97.
30.
122.
37 1 .
66 .
1341.
932.
362.
52.
711.
2121.
3
260.
-218.
51280.
-1105.




Table A -1 7 . Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Million* of 1972 dollar*)

Projected
No.

1
2
4
5

6

7

8
10
11
12

13
15
16
19

21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
35
36
37
38
39
40
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58

Sector Titl e
D a i r y a n d P o u l t r y Pro du cts
M e a t and Li ves tock Produ c t s
Fo o d and Feed Gra i n s
O t h e r Agricu l t u r a l P r o d u c t s
F o r e s t r y and Fishery Produ c t s
A g r i c u l t u r a l , Forestry and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Iro n and Fer r o a l l o y Mining
O t h e r N o n f e r r o u s Ore Min i n g
Coa l M i n i n g
C r u d e P e t r o l e u m and Nat ural Gas
S t o n e and Cla y M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g
N e w a n d Resid e n t i a l B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
N e w N o n r e s i d e n t i a l B u i lding C o n s t r u c t i o n
All Other Ne w C o n s truction
M a i n t e n a n c e and Repair C o n s t r u c t i o n
Ordnance
C o m p l e t e Gui d e d Mi s s i l e s
M e a t Pr o d u c t s
Dai ry Pr o d u c t s
C a n n e d a n d Froz en Foods
G r a i n Mill Pr o d u c t s
B a k e r y Pr o d u c t s
Sugar
C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s
A l c o h o l i c Bev e r a g e s
S o f t Drin k s and Flavorings
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o ducts
Fabri cs * Ya rn and Threa d M i l l s
Floor Coverings
«’
M i s c e l l a n e o u s T e x t i l e Goods
H o s i e r y and Knit Goods
Appa r e l
M i s c e l l a n e o u s F a b r icated T e x t i l e P r o d u c t s
S a w m i l l s and P l a n i n g Mil l s
M i l lwork, P l y w o o d and Other W o o d P r o d u c t s
Wooden Containers
H o u s e h o l d F u r niture
O t h e r Fur n i t u r e and F i x tures
P a p e r Produ c t s
Paperboard
Newspaper Printing and Publishing
P e r i o d i c a l and Book Prin ti ng, P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
Indu s t r i a l I n o r ganic and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
Agricultural Chemicals
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical Pr o d u c t s
Plastics Materials and Synthetic Rubber
S y n t h e t i c Fibe rs
Drugs
C l e a n i n g a n d Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s

1963

2.
1.
0.
4.
1.
25.
17 .
372.
55.
0.
9.
195.
551.
1765.
156 1.
1888.
3963.
96.
87 .
14.
6.
10.
1.
0.
2.
10.
6.
39.
3.
6.
0.
57.
73.
0.
6.
6.
12.
22.
27.
11.
0.
47.
206.
961.
1.
117.
21.
17.
16.
24.

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

4.
1.
1.
7.
9.
12.
-70.
89.
60.
11.
8.
41.
455.
928.
1331.
4665.
3007 .
115.
28.
41.
7.
22.
2.
3.
0.
14.
18.
82.
7.
7.
0.
110.
350.
2.
27.
26.
29.
48.
67.
33.
1.
27 .
163.
622.
90.
748.
-6 .
31.
87.
37.

47.
9.
6.
32.
5.
10.
0.
-2 .
22.
29.
14.
118.
451.
1033.
1007 .
2966.
956 .
368.
1 18.
166.
24.
92.
7.
12.
0.
6 1•
57.
34.
4.
3.
14.
105.
54.
12.
14.
9.
21.
24.
26.
6.
1.
34.
170.
87.
1.
395.
-28.
8.
70.
40.

53.
7.
7.
30.
7.
7.
0.
37 .
-26.
0.
0.
135.
827.
2087.
1194.
2237.
1367.
413.
135.
157.
22.
98.
3.
15.
0.
52.
52.
41.
7.
7•
15.
112.
60.
15.
15.
22.
22.
22.
22.
7.
0.
37.
224.
475.
0.
540.
15.
36.
90.
46.

51.
7.
7.
29.
6.
7.
0.
35.
30.
0.
0.
128.
782.
2342.
1184.
2337.
1445.
396 .
136.
152.
20 .
93.
3.
14.
JO.
57.
50.
38.
7.
7.
14.
107.
58.
14.
14.
21.
21.
21.
21.
7.
0.
43.
247.
540.
0.
626 .
14.
44.
10 1 .
41.

51.
8.
6.
30.
6.
8.
0.
34.
34.
0.
0.
130.
797 .
2103.
1325.
247 1.
1795.
398.
137 .
150.
19.
91.
3.
15.
0.
68.
49.
38 •
8.
6.
15.
105.
58.
15.
15.
3 1.
22.
31.
31.
8.
0.
46.
289.
6 30.
0.
759.
15.
55.
124.
39.




Table A -17. C ontinued-Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
59
60

61
62
63
64
65

66
67
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85

86
87

88

89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99

00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

Sector Title
Pai n t s and Allied P r o d u c t s
P e t r o l e u m R e f ining a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
Tires an d Inner Tub e s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rub b e r P r o d u c t s
P l a s t i c Pr odu cts
Leather Tanning a n d I n d u s t r i a l L e a t h e r
Footwear and Other L e a ther P r o d u c t s
Gla ss
Cement and Concr e t e P r o d u c t s
P o t t e r y and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s
Bla st Fu r n a c e s and Ba s i c Steel P r o d u c t s
Iron and Steel F o u n d r i e s a n d F o r g i n g s
P r i m a r y Copper and C o p p e r P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y Aluminum a n d A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
Other P r i m a r y N o n f e r r o u s P r o d u c t s
Meta l C o n t ainers
H e a t i n g A p p aratus and P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s
F a b r i c a t e d Structural Meta l
Sc r e w M a c h i n e P r o ducts
Meta l S t a m pings
Cu tlery, Ha nd Tools a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e
Other Fabricated P r o d u c t s
Engines, Tu rbines and G e n e r a t o r s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
C o n s t r u c t i o n Mini n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y
Mater i a l Handling E q u i pment
Meta l W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y
Sp eci al In dustry M a c h i n e s
Ge ner al Indu st rial M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Sh op Products
C o m p u t e r s and Per i p h e r a l Equ i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Ot h e r O f f i c e Equ i p m e n t
S e r v i c e In dus try M a c h i n e s
Elect r i c Tra n s m i s s i o n E q u i p m e n t
El ect rical Indust ri al A p p a r a t u s
H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s
Elect r i c Lig hti ng and W i r i n g
Rad io and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
Rad io and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
E l e c t r o n i c C o m ponents
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Elec trical P r o d u c t s
Mo t o r Vehic l e s
Ai rcraft
Sh i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r
R a i l r o a d Equi pme nt
Cycles, Bicyc l e s and Parts
Other T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
S c i e n t i f i c an d C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
Medical and De ntal I n s t r u m e n t s
Op tic al and O p h t h a l m i c Equ i p m e n t
P h o t o g r a p h i c E q u ipment and S u p p l i e s
Watch es , Cloc k s a n d Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e
Musical Instr u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g G o o d s
Other M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s
Railroad Transportation
Local Transit and I n t e r c i t y Bus e s
Tru ck T r a n s p o r t a t i o n

1963

2.
757.
52.
15.
26.
1.
5.
11.
0.
1.
35.
55.
5.
108.
23.
-29.
9.
5.
65.
18.
15.
10.
30.
216.
13.
144.
87.
94.
13.
305.
72.
335.
18.
51.
237.
224.
9.
17.
36.
156.
5184.
331.
133.
779.
9033.
1350 .
6.
1.
1.
394.
38.
12.
101.
1.
3.
5.
36.
186.
18.
641.

1967
3.

1022.
79.
228.
63.
6.
16.
13.
0.
1.
26.
277 .
85.
25.
47.
-24.
16.
7.
207 .
120 .
18.
55.
219.
449.
29.
366 .
99.
135.
39.
298.
129.
222.
2 1.
105.
343.
409.
12.
42.
58.
220.
5799.
556.
240.
1010.
9217.
160 1 .
4.
1.
1.
46 1.
112.
47.
293.
111.
2.
7.
56.
394.
32.
1330.

1973

1980

4.
1037.
34.
13.
27.
12.
36.
7.
5.
1.
16.
53.
8.
44.
112.
-46.
12.
1 1.
292.
35.
6.
47.
180.
97.
3.
68.
93.
65.
19.
265.
38.
290.
19.
52.
267 .
256.
10.
35.
38.
110.
4354.
325.
139.
430 .
5363.
1863.
5.
1.
7.
287.
67.
72.
165.
72.
1.
6.
43.
132.
26 .
645.

3.
1232.
30.
98.
35.
15.
41.
18.
0.
0.
15.
67.
7.
46 .
136 .
1.
7.
15.
277.
45.
7.
67 .
187 .
83.
0.
53.
98.
83.
22.
307 .
68.
552.
30 .
67 .
389.
334.
13.
42.
45.
157.
4946 .
465.
159.
487.
6413.
2877.
7.
0.
7.
358.
79.
121.
143.
38.
0.
7.
45.
106.
22.
563.

1985
4.

1221.
35.

100.
44.
14.
39.
23.
0.
0.
14.
7 1.
7.
50.
153.
1.
7.
14.
297.
49.
7.
7 1.
192.
86 .
0.
58.
1 00.
85.
28.
33 1.
7 1.
7 18.
35.
7 1.
452.
372.
12.
45.
50.
170.
4643.
534.
174.
524.
6634.
2380 .
7.
0.
7.
423.
83.
144.
151 .
43.
0.
7.
49.
103.
28.
57 1.

1990
4.
1357.
31.
116.
54.
23.
40.
32.
0.
0.
15.
76.
8.
62.
178.
1.
8.
15.
335.
6 1.
8.
84."
222.
100 .
0.
70.
115.
99.
3 1.
373.
85.
865.
38.
76.
532.
427 .
11.
49.
6 1.
191.
5090 .
609 .
195.
609 .
7430 .
2522.
8.
0.
8.
489.
9 1.
17 1.
178.
46 .
o
8.
6 1.
1 12.
3 1.
632.




Table A -1 7 . Continued—Federal Government purchases, defense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions o f 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.

120
121
122
124
126
127
128
129
130
133
135
136
137
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
152
154
155
157
158
159

Sector Title
Water Transportation
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc ept Rad io a n d Tv
Electric Utilities
Gas Utilities
W a t e r and S a n i t a r y Se r v i c e s
W h o l e s a l e Trad e
Reta i1 T rade
Insurance
Rea l Esta te
H o t e l s and L o d g i n g Places
P e r s o n a l a n d Repa i r S e r vices
Miscellaneous Business Services
Ad verti sing
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profes s i o n a l S e r v i c e s
A u t o m o b i l e Repair
Motion Pictures
Amusement and Recreation Services
Doctors' and Dent is ts' Se r v i c e s
Hospi ta ls
O t h e r Medi c a l S e r v i c e s
E d u c a t i o n a l Se r v i c e s
Nonprofit Organizations
Post Off i c e
O t h e r Fe der al Enter p r i s e s
O t h e r Sta t e and Local G o v e r n m e n t
D i r e c t l y A l l o c a t e d Import s
O f f i c e Su p p l i e s
Scrap* Used* a n d S e c o n d h a n d
G o v e r n m e n t I n d ustry

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

321.
389.
11.
347.
399.
44.
33.
793.
-31.
23.
101.
418.
15.
2034.
2.
379.
25.
73.
92.
15.
68.
40.
694.
505.
149.
2.
17.
2198.
120.
-441.
38111.

819.
1018.
17.
440.
284.
38.
38.
1321.
-34.
21.
151.
633.
12.
1820.
1.
506.
73.
112.
129.
52.
10 1 .
5.
718.
552.
312.
9.
8.
3417.
1 16.
-97.
45888.

456.
47 1.
47.
636.
303.
56.
67.
1189.
2.
20.
12.
402.
1.
1830.
6.
284.
27.
59.
76.
64.
124.
6.
104.
293.
202.
15.
7.
2580.
55.
-54.
33948.

408.
532.
38.
884.
351.
72.
109.
1363.
-47.
22.
15.
404.
22.
2163.
7.
322.
30.
75.
105.
82.
157.
7.
142.
400.
202.
15.
7.
1701.
67.
-67.
32013.

419.
541.
46.
961.
380.
70.
104.
1474.
-45.
28.
14.
396.
28.
2492.
7.
340.
35.
78.
90.
85.
184.
7.
162.
417.
212.
14.
7.
1590.
71.
-70.
31449.

465.
606 .
51.
1141.
440 .
74.
105.
1739.
-46.
31.
23.
433.
31.
2860.
8.
389.
38.
84.
88.
99.
228.
8.
203.
470.
243.
23.
8.
1569.
76.
-76.
30999.




Table A -18. Federal Government purchases, nondefense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.

1
2
3
4
5

6
7

8
10
11
12

13
16
18
19

21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
32
33
35
36
37
39
40
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
57
58
59
60

61

Sector Tit l e
Dai r y a n d Poul t r y P r o d u c t s
Mea t an d Livestock P r o d u c t s
Cott on
Fo od and Feed Gra i n s
Othe r Agric u l t u r a l P r o d u c t s
Fores t r y and Fishery P r o d u c t s
Agricultural* F o r e s t r y a n d F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Iron and F e r r o a l l o y M i n i n g
Othe r N o n f e r r o u s Ore M i n i n g
Coal M i n i n g
Cr u d e P e t r o l e u m a n d N a t ural Gas
St o n e and C l a y M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g
Ne w N o n r e s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
Ne w H i g h w a y C o n s t r u c t i o n
All Other Ne w C o n s t r u c t i o n
M a i n t e n a n c e an d R e p a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n
Ordnance
C o m p l e t e Gui d e d M i s s i l e s
Meat Pr o d u c t s
Da i r y P r o d u c t s
C a n n e d and Froz en Fo o d s
Grai n Mill P r o d u c t s
Bak e r y Pr o d u c t s
Sugar
Confectionary Products
Soft Dri n k s and F l a v o r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s
Fabrics, Yarn and T h r e a d M i l l s
Flo or C o v e r i n g s
Miscellaneous Textile Goods
Ap par el
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Sawmills and Planing Mills
Mi llw ork, P l y wood a n d O t h e r U o o d P r o d u c t s
Wood e n C o n t a i n e r s
H o u s e h o l d Fu r n i t u r e
Other F u r n i t u r e a n d F i x t u r e s
Paper P r o d u c t s
Paperboard
N e w s p a p e r Pr i n t i n g a n d P u b l i s h i n g
Per i o d i c a l and Book P r i n ting, P u b l i s h i n g
Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing
In dus trial Ino r g a n i c a n d O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
Ag r i c u l t u r a l C h e m i c a l s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s C h e mical P r o d u c t s
Drugs
C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
P a i n t s and Allied P r o d u c t s
Petroleum Refining and Related Products
Tires and Inn er T u b e s

1963

1967

4.
4.
488.
-546.
-148.
-744.
0.
- 10.
14.
13.
0.
-9.
1183.
290.
2260.
676.
39.
1594.
40.
107.
11.
12.
6.
1.
0.
4.
40.
0.
1.
4.
47 .
11.
0.
4.
0.
16.
51.
48.
3.
0.
46.
-97.
143.
13.
41.
75.
9.
34.
84.
4.

4.
4.
-881 .
-554.
311.
-827.
2.
-1 .
67.
12.
0.
1.
642.
340.
2136.
1074.
57.
2126.
63.
639.
26.
74.
11.
1.
2.
6.
20.
1.
3.
7.
58.
20.
1.
16.
6.
59.
96.
96.
9.
1.
14.
64.
340.
19.
88.
54.
41.
-53.
233.
34.

1973
3.
3.
-6 1.
-3608.
214.
-541. .
2.
- 1.
15.
9.
0.
-2 .
649.
250.
2029.
987.
311.
1458.
58.
635.
24.
9.
10.
1.
2.
6.
14.
1.
3.
7.
6 1.
21.
1.
13.
5.
6 1.
92.
99.
9.
1.
14.
72.
456.
23.
92.
99.
46.
31.
71.
41.

1980

2.
2.
31.
-624.
34.
-711.
3.
0.
74.
9.
85.
0.
944.
190.
923.
1671.
220.
1297.
49.
64.
20.
52.
8.
1.
2.
6.
14.
1.
5.
7.
55.
17.
1.
11.
4.
53.
79.
82.
7.
1.
14.
72.
369.
20.
68.
103.
43.
138.
62.
37.

1985

1990

3.
3.
41 .
-8 .
37.
-695.
3.
0.
89.
10.
138.
0.
905.
166 .
835.
1863.
293.
1362.
58.
7 1.
23.
65.
10.
1.
1.
6.
18.
i.
5.
10.
72.
22.
1.
15.
6.
70.
108.
108.
9.
1.
18.
97.
463.
26.
9 1.
123.
60.
140.
69.
49.

3
3
4 1!
49.
4 1.
-683.
3.
0.
94.
11.
156 .
0.
763.
144.
8 18.
2034.
293.
1365.
58.
80.
24.
62.
11.
1.

2

7.
19.

1
6!
10
72.
?3,

1

15 *

6
70.
111.
108.
10.
1.
19.
100.
502.
26.
95.
129.
63.
139
75.
49.




Table A -1 8. Continued—Federal Government purchases, nondefense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Million* of 1972 dollars)

_______________

Pro j ected
No.
62
63
64
65

66
67
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85

86
87

88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99

100
101
102
103
104
105
106
108
109

110
111
112

113
114
115
116
117
118
119

120
121
122
124
126

Se ctor Title
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubb e r P r o d u c t s
P l a s t i c Produ c t s
L e a t h e r Tann i n g and Ind us trial L e a t h e r
F o o t w e a r an d Oth er Lea ther P r o d u c t s
Glass
C e m e n t and C o n c r e t e P r o ducts
P o t t e r y and R e l a t e d P r o ducts
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone and Cla y P r o d u c t s
B l a s t Fu r n a c e s and Basic Steel P r o d u c t s
Iron a n d Steel F o u ndries and F o r g i n g s
P r i m a r y Cop p e r and Coppe r P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y Al u m i n u m and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
Other Primary Nonferrous Products
H e a t i n g A p p a r a t u s and P l u m b i n g F i x t u r e s
F a b r i c a t e d Structural Metal
S c r e w M a c h i n e Produ c t s
Metal Stampings
Cutlery, Ha nd Tools and Gen er al H a r d w a r e
O t h e r F a b r i c a t e d Pr o d u c t s
En gin es, T u r b i n e s and G e n e r a t o r s
Farm Machinery
C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y
M a t e r i a l Ha n d l i n g Equip me nt
Metal Working Machinery
S p e c i a l I n d ustry Ma c h i n e s
G e n e r a l In dus trial M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Sh op P r o ducts
C o m p u t e r s and Peripheral Equipment
T y p e w r i t e r s and Other Office E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e I n d ustry M a c h i n e s
E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equipment
E l e c t r i c a l In dus trial A p p a r a t u s
H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s
E l e c t r i c L i g hting and Wiri n g
R a d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equipment
Electronic Components
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s
M o t o r Vehicles
Ai rcr a f t
S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r
R a i l r o a d Eq uip ment
O t h e r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Equ ip ment
S c i e n t i f i c and Cont r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
M e d i c a l a n d Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
O p t i c a l and O p h t h a l m i c Equipment
P h o t o g r a p h i c Eq uipment and S u p p l i e s
Wa t c h e s , Clo c k s and Clo ck O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
Jewelry and Silverware
M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g Goo d s
Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products
Railroad Transportation
Loc al Transit and Int e r c i t y Bu s e s
Tr u c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Excep t Rad io and Tv
E l e c t r i c Uti l i t i e s

1963

8.
5.
0.
1.
10.
0.
0.
-9.
3.
0.
33.
1.
-203.
0.
16.
7.
5.
15.
7.
47.
2.
13.
13.
40 .
16.
43.
2.
121.
83.
5.
48.
30.
3.
1.
35.
17.
563.
44.
30.
91.
1193.
135.
2.
1.
125.
38.
12.
68.
1.
-6 .
0.
2.
53.
14.
138.
3.
113.
1.
56.
-187 .

1967
17.
15.
4.
4.
17.
1.
2.
4.
2.
2.
79.
18.
-174.
1.
58.
60 .
7.
37 .
33.
98.
7.
27.
32.
69.
23.
85.
14.
191.
181.
1 1.
91 .
80.
5.
24.
48.
30.
821.
119.
• 42.
289.
1041 .
266.
4.
2.
99.
52.
33.
54.
1.
-5.
4.
74.
1 13.
9.
314.
-5.
207.
4.
196.
8.

1973
19.
13.
3.
4.
17 .
1.
2.
3.
2.
2.
62.
21.
-155.
0.
74.
55.
7.
38.
17.
111.
7.
26.
31.
84.
22.
109.
12.
316.
203.
12.
39.
83.
5.
27.
64.
30.
639.
118.
74.
309.
690 .
366.
4.
2. *
103.
80.
24.
66.
1.
-4.
4.
82.
116.
8.
282.
10.
198.
5.
219.
-31.

1980

1985

16.
14.
2.
4.
18.
0.
2.
4.
3.
3.
51.
20 .
7.
0.
57.
49.
7.
33.
18.
101.
7.
24.
24.
87 .
23.
85.
12.
299.
190.
13.
45.
87.
5.
23.
68.
41.
637.
94.
212.
286 .
779.
319.
2.
3.
104.
82.
46.
66.
1.
0.
4.
73.
102.
7.
259.
9.
186.
4.
237.
-38.

24.
18.
3.
6.
24.
0.
3.
5.
4.
3.
65.
26.
8.
0.
73.
65.
9.
44.
26.
137.
9.
32.
29.
108.
30 .
109.
16.
389.
256 .
17.
54.
102.
6.
30.
92.
54.
787.
121.
258.
313.
918.
425.
3.
4.
130.
92.
59.
87.
1.
0.
6.
98.
136.
9.
347.
12.
223.
6.
312.
-55.

1990

21.
18.
3.
6.
24.
0.
3.
5.
4.
3.
65.
27.
8.
0.
74.
65.
9.
44.
29.
140.
9.
32.
30.
112.
30.
112.
16.
397.
262.
20 .
58.
1 00.
6.
30.
96.
56.
791.
126.
266.
291.
904.
425.
3.
4.
135.
102.
63.
91.
2.
0.
6.
101.
142.
9.
349.
12.
212.
6.
321.
-75.




Table A -18. C ontinued-Federal Government purchases, nondefense, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

Projected
No.
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
135
136
137
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
152
154
155
156
157
158
159
160

Sector Tit l e
Gas U t i l i t i e s
W a t e r and Sanitary S e r v i c e s
W h o l e s a l e Trade
Reta il Tra de
Bank i ng
Cred it A g e n c i e s and Fin a n c i a l B r o k e r s
Insurance
Real Esta te
H o t e l s and Lodging P l a c e s
Personal and Repa ir S e r v i c e s
Miscellaneous Business Services
Adverti si ng
Miscellaneous Professional Services
A u t o m o b i l e Repair
Mot i o n Pi c t u r e s
Amu s e m e n t and R e c r e a t i o n S e r v i c e s
Do ctors' and De ntists' S e r v i c e s
Hospitals
Oth er Medical S e r v i c e s
Educational Services
Non p r o f i t O r g a n i z a t i o n s
Post Office
Oth er Fe deral E n t e r p r i s e s
Oth er State and Local G o v e r n m e n t
Di r e c t l y A l l ocated I m p o r t s
B u s i n e s s Travel, E n t e r n a i n m e n t , a n d Gi f t s
Offi c e Suppl i e s
Scrap, Used, and S e c o n d h a n d
G o v e r n m e n t In dustry
Rest of W o r l d Indus t r y

1963

20.
13.
237.
7.
716.
- 10.
20.
232.
195.
22.
496 .
1.
326 .
10.
8.
-16.
79.
122.
22.
888.
159.
56.
0 .
8.
398.
0 .
131.
121.
9550.
-1162.

1967
15.
13.
473.
7.
673.
6.
29.
352.
253.
-2 2 .
995.
1.
475.
3.
9.
-31 .
14.
156.
54.
1 152.
337.
119.
4.
3.
6 12.
0.
166.
-159.
9940.
-505.

1973

1930

1985

1990

24.
11.
47 1.
7.
380 .
- 11.
15.
417.
209.
-23.
938.
1.
379.
9.
10 .
-25.
12.
136.
48.
1499 .
327.
102.
4.
5.
551 .
4.
90.
-117.
13560 .
-626 .

22.
11.
441.
9.
356.
-10 .
14.
306 .
191.
1.
980.
1.
368.
11.
1 1.
-39.
18.
1 16.
44.
948.
345.
89.
3.
530.
560 .
3.
139.
-729.
17185.
-1163.

23.
12.
587.
11.
442.
- 12.
18.
410.
253.
- 1.
1296.
1.
484.
13.
14.
-56.
21.
148.
57.
1184.
450.
1 17.
3.
685.
562.
3.
185.
-36 1.
18789.
-1090.

24.
13.
587.
11.
411.
- 11.
18.
413.
253.
-0.
1314.
1.
493.
13.
14.
-58.
23.
143.
58.
1138.
462.
1 18.
30 .
703.
552.
3.
184.
-142.
20281.
-1105.




Table A -1 9 . State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(M illion* of 1972 dollar*)

Projected
No.

1
2
4
5

6

7

11
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

21
22
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
32
33
34
35
36
37
39
40
43
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
57
58
59
60
61
62
63

Sect o r Titl e
D a i r y a n d P o u l t r y Products
M e a t and Livestock Products
F o o d and Fee d Gra i n s
O t h e r Ag r i c u l t u r a l Produ c t s
F o r e s t r y and F i s hery P r o ducts
A g r i c u l t u r a l , Fo r e s t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Co al M i n i n g
S t o n e and C l a y M i n i n g and Q u a r r y i n g
C h e m i c a l and F e r t i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g
N e w and Resid e n t i a l Bui l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
N e w Nonresi dent ial Build i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
N e w Publ i c U t i l i t y C o n s t r u c t i o n
New H i g h w a y Constr u c t i o n
All Other New Construction
M a i n t e n a n c e and Repa i r C o n s t r u c t i o n
Ordnance
M e a t Produ c t s
Dairy Products
C a n n e d and Fro zen Food s
G r a i n Mi ll Produ c t s
B a k e r y Pr o d u c t s
Sugar
C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s
S o f t D r i n k s a n d Fla vo rings
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food Produ c t s
Tobacco Manufacturers
Fa bri cs, Yarn and Thread M i l l s
Floor Coverings
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Text i l e Goo ds
Appa r e l
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Fabr i c a t e d T e x t i l e P r o d u c t s
M i l l w o r k , P l y w o o d and Oth er blood P r o d u c t s
H o u s e h o l d F u r n iture
O t h e r Fur n i t u r e and Fixtures
P a p e r Pr o d u c t s
Paperboard
Newspaper Printing and Publishing
P e r i o d i c a l and Book Pri nti ng , P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
I n d u s t r i a l Ino r g a n i c and O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
Agricultural Chemicals
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical Pr o d u c t s
Plastics Materials and Synthetic Rubber
Drugs
C l e a n i n g a n d Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
P a i n t s a n d Alli e d Products
P e t r o l e u m Re f i n i n g a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
T i r e s and Inn er Tubes
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rub b e r Pr o d u c t s
P l a s t i c Pr o d u c t s

1963

1967

1973

1980

13.
1.
8.
63.
5.
14.
17 .
-54.
36.
1050.
7929.
3625.
10648.
908.
4942.
7.
163.
84.
78.
10 .
37.
4.
6.
17.
52.
- 1.
29.
1.
-1 .
59.
12.
3.
20.
231.
135.
18.
3.
495.
165.
37.
7 1.
10.
0.
284.
105.
1.
241.
71.
77.
27.

19.
4.
12.
85.
7.
35.
28.
-62.
41.
1645.
1 1823.
4621.
11335.
1446.
5470.
10.
236.
1 10.
1 12.
16.
50.
5.
8.
24.
7 1.
- 1.
37.
1.
- 1.
59.
23.
5.
38.
384.
219.
28.
6.
853.
208.
50.
83.
40.
1.
516.
184.
3.
380.
99.
101.
37.

30.
2.
16.
127.
12.
35.
50 .
-41.
28.
1275.
10126.
4500.
9290.
872.
5157.
12.
403.
157.
184.
26.
82.
8.
12.
40.
1 13.
-2 .
105.
2.
-2 .
167.
41.
7.
64.
632.
387.
44.
8.
1141.
429.
61.
107.
21.
1.
1061.
290.
5.
624.
140.
141.
59.

30.
7.
12.
169.
16.
52.
44.
-6 8 .
51.
1265.
10265.
5197.
8153.
961.
6 184.
14.
494.
229.
227.
26.
98.
5.
16.
51.
134.
-3.
126.
3.
-2 .
248.
57.
8.
90.
890.
489.
52.
11.
1835.
647.
71.
143.
22.
1.
1824.
398.
6.
535.
209.
196.
69.

1985

1990

36.
9.
12.
180.
17.
53.
39.
-63.
46.
1231.
9090.
5552.
817 1.
1020 .
6613.
15.
581.
290.
265.
28.
116.
6.
19.
58.
16 1 .
-4.
129.
3.
-3.
268.
59.
7.
78.
795.
485.
53.
9.
1585.
669.
84.
138.
26.
1.
2362.
370 .
5.
494.
209.
206.
64.

41.
9.
12.
181.
19.
49.
35.
-63.
47.
1107.
8216.
5794.
8204.
1047.
6592.
15.
669.
338.
298.
29.
130.
6.
21.
62.
182.
-4.
135.
4.
-3.
284.
62.
6.
70.
723.
475.
52.
8.
1386.
694.
1 00.
130.
30.
1.
2899.
343.
5.
459.
210.
224.
59.




Table A -19. Continued—State and local government purchases, total, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Million* o f 1972 dollar*)

Projected
No.
65

66
68

69
70
71
74
80
81
82
83
84
85

86

87

88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99

100
10 1
102
103
104
105
106
107
109

110
111
1 12
113
1 14
1 15
116
117
1 18
119

120
121
122
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
135

Sec-tor Title
Footw e a r a n d Other L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s
Glas s
S t r u ctural Clay P r o d u c t s
P o t t e r y and Rela t e d P r o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Stone a n d C l a y P r o d u c t s
Blas t Fu r n a c e s and B a s i c Steel P r o d u c t s
Primary Aluminum and Aluminum Products
Meta l St a m p i n g s
Cu tlery, Hand Tool s and Gene r a l H a r d w a r e
Ot h e r Fabr i c a t e d P r o d u c t s
Engines, Turbi n e s a n d G e n e r a t o r s
Fa rm M a c h i n e r y
C o n s t r u c t i o n Min i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y
Ma t e r i a l Handl i n g E q u i pment
Metal W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y
Sp ecial Industry M a c h i n e s
Ge neral Indus tri al M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Shop Products
C o m p u t e r s and P e r ipheral E q u i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s an d O t h e r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t
Serv i c e Industry M a c h i n e s
El e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n E q u i p m e n t
Electrical In dustrial A p p a r a t u s
H o u s e h o l d Appl i a n c e s
E l e ctric Lig hti ng and W i r i n g
Rad io an d Tv Rec e i v i n g Sets
T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
Radi o an d C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
E l e c t r o n i c Com p o n e n t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s
Motor Vehicles
A i rcraft
Ship and Boat Bu i l d i n g a n d R e p a i r
R a i l r o a d Equi pment
Cycles, Bi c y c l e s and Par t s
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
Medical and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
Op tical and Opht h a l m i c E q u i p m e n t
P h o t o g r a p h i c Eq ui pment a n d S u p p l i e s
Wat che s, Clo c k s and Cloc k O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y and Silv e r w a r e
Musi c a l Instr u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s
Oth er M i s c e l l a n e o u s M a n u f a c t u r e d P r o d u c t s
Railroad Transportation
Local Trans it and I n t e r c i t y Bu s e s
Truc k Tran s p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Air Tran s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc ept Radio a n d Tv
Radi o an d Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g
E l e ctric U t i l ities
Ga s Uti l i t i e s
W a t e r an d Sa n i t a r y S e r v i c e s
W h o l e s a l e Tra de
R e t a i 1 Tra de
Bank ing
Cr edit A g e n c i e s and Fin a n c i a l B r o k e r s
I n s u rance
Real Esta te

1963

1967

3.
43.
-0 .
10.
1.
3.
0.
1.
19.
-5.
4.
30.
186.
0.
22.
8.
11.
89.
40.
88.
92.
59.
45.
20.
48.
24.
0.
74.
14.
25.
839.
2.
6.
12.
6.
67.
71.
13.
108.
3.
7.
67.
43.
57.
348.
191.
18.
153.
5.
403.
4.
981.
263.
-28.
597.
-454.
1001 .
140 .
196.
478.

4.
70.
-0 .
16.
1.
3.
0.
14.
45.
-4.
10.
39.
150 .
1.
38.
16 .
17.
147.
72.
151 .
159.
57.
52.
33.
93.
45.
0.
124.
22.
36 .
1054.
2.
7.
11.
9.
107.
113.
23.
180.
4.
13.
83.
78.
85.
571.
331.
28.
245.
8.
541 .
10.
1540.
303.
56.
952.
-496 .
1022.
144.
289.
545.

1973

1980

1985

1990

5.
118.
-0 .
25.
2.
4.
1.
26.
6 1.
-5.
7.
64.
154.
2.
60.
28.
14.
253.
127.
228.
273.
137.
1 17.
57.
160.
77.
1.
240.
26.
58.
1373.
3.
10.
27.
10.
166 .
208.
38.
288.
7.
22.
176.
132.
145.
879.
587.
52.
422.
14.
1084.
21.
2575.
790 .
38.
1616.
-1651.
2437.
342.
588.
1510.

7.
168.
- 1.
32.
3.
5.
1.
24.
102.
-7.
14.
89.
254.
2.
67.
34.
20.
324.
182.
319.
415.
147.
129.
83.
195.
108.
1.
37 1.
35.
90.
197 1.
4.
13.
24.
12.
247.
309.
55.
404.
10.
24.
240.
180.
202.
1300 .
799.
84.
579.
18.
18 1 1 .
26.
3368.
1126.
-40.
2132.
-2523.
3449.
469.
875.
2299.

9.
177.
- 1.
30.
2.
6.
0.
1.
98.
- 12.
15.
84.
338.
2.
60.
27.
21.
272.
162.
284.
434.
151.
128.
85.
162.
9 1.
1.
354.
35.
152.
1980 .
4.
14.
23.
13.
296.
354.
48.
426.
9.
21.
220.
141.
191.
1175.
759.
84.
573.
17.
2084.
20.
2974.
1053.
-96.
2089.
-1940.
41 14.
529.
811.
2520.

10.
188.
-1.
29.
2.
7.
0.
-14.
89.
-14.
16.
80.
393.
1.
57.
22.
23.
231.
145.
262.
452.
174.
138.
88.
136 .
77.
1.
351.
36.
164.
2119.
4.
14.
27.
13.
342.
400 .
42.
449.
9.
18.
199.
107.
185.
1056 .
733.
87.
566 .
17.
2250 .
15.
2728.
998.
-169.
2123.
-1509.
4581.
555.
762.
2696.




Table A -1 9. Continued—State and local government purchases, to ta l, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.

Sector Titl e

1963

1967

1973

136
137
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
154
157
158
159

H o t e l s and Lodg i n g Place s
P e r s o n a l and Rep a i r Servi c e s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s B u s i n e s s Se r v i c e s
Ad ver ti si ng
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profe s s i o n a l S e r v i c e s
A u t o m o b i l e Re pair
M o t i o n Pictu r e s
A m u s e m e n t and R e c r e a t i o n S e r v i c e s
Doctors' and Dentis ts ' S e r vices
Hospi tal s
O t h e r M e d ical S e r v i c e s
E d u c a t i o n a l S e r vices
Nonprofit Organizations
P o s t Off i c e
O t h e r Sta t e and Local Gove r n m e n t
Office Supplies
Sc rap* Used, and S e c o n d h a n d
G o v e r n m e n t Industry

103.
42.
937 .
30.
299.
140 .
25.
- 12.
283.
657.
506.
100.
42.
198.
19.
233.
804.
52717.

-56.
68.
1357.
32.
456.
187.
40.
-492.
663.
1280.
1 177.
183.
53.
275.
28.
349.
1480.
66237.

-160.
126.
2633.
7 1.
896.
329.
64.
-26.
1744.
2932.
3115.
361.
125.
6 12.
45.
625.
916 .
87250.

1980
-304.
163.
4422.
101 .
1326.
484.
87.
-51.
2651.
4225.
4385.
508.
167.
870.
58.
1027 .
1073.
105101.

1985
-26.
167.
4822.
110.
1386.
499.
77 .
-52.
280 1 .
4656 .
4642.
488.
171.
925.
55.
1025.
941.
112522.

1990
162.
172.
5220.
1 14.
1453.
509.
69.
-62.
3064.
5354.
5040.
476.
174.
968.
51.
1004.
904.
118126.




Table A -20. State and local government purchases, education, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.

1
4
5

6
7

11
15
16

21

24
25
26
27
28
29
30
32
33
35
39
40
43
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
53
54
55
57
58
59
60
61
62
63

66
69
70
74
80
81
82
84

86
87

88

Secto r Title
Dairy and Poul t r y P r o d u c t s
Food and Feed Gra i n s
Othe r Agricultural P r o d u c t s
Fo r e s t r y an d Fi shery P r o d u c t s
Agricultural, F o r e s t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Coal Min i n g
Ne w and R e s i dential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
Ne w Nonresid e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
M a i n t e n a n c e and R e p a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n
Meat Products
Dai ry Produ c t s
Cann e d and Frozen Food s
Gra in Mill Pr o d u c t s
Bake r y Pr oducts
Sug ar
Confectionary Products
Soft Drinks and F l a v o r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s
Fabrics, Yarn and T h r e a d M i l l s
Appar el
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Mi llw ork, P l y wood and Oth e r W o o d P r o d u c t s
H o u s e h o l d Furniture
Other Fu rniture and Fixtu r e s
Paper Products
Paperboard
New s p a p e r Print i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
P e r iodical and Book Print in g, P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
A g r icultural C h e m i c a l s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemical P r o d u c t s
P l a s t i c s M a t e r i a l s and S y n t h e t i c Rubb e r
Drugs
C l e a n i n g and Toile t P r e p a r a t i o n s
Pain t s and Allied P r o d u c t s
P e t r o l e u m Refin i n g and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
Tires and Inner Tubes
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rub b e r P r o d u c t s
Plas t i c Pr oducts
Glas s
P o t t e r y and R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Sto n e and Cl a y P r o d u c t s
P r i m a r y Aluminum and A l u m i n u m P r o d u c t s
Met al Stampings
Cutle ry , Ha nd To o l s and Gene r a l H a r d w a r e
Other Fabricated P r o d u c t s
Fa rm M a c h i n e r y
Ma t e r i a l Handl i n g Equ i p m e n t
Met al W o r k i n g M a c h i n e r y
Sp ecial In dus try M a c h i n e s

1963

1.
3.
4.
1.
7.
10 .
481 .
5223.
933 .
15.
7.
6.
3.
3.
0.
0.
2.
3.
6.
2.
3.
2.
1 1.
148.
54.
8.
3.
464.
46 .
9.
1.
0.
20 .
65.
1.
90 .
15.
3.
12.
15.
6.
1.
0.
16.
7.
1.
5.
0.
9.
7.

1967

2.

5.
15.
2.
20 .
20.
739.
8008.
10 19.
37.
8.
14.
6.
8.
1.
1.
5.
8.
1 1.
3.
7.
4.
27.
285.
1 15.
15.
5.
768.
64.
17.
2.
1.
49.
119.
2.
176.
29.
6.
21.
28.
11.
1.
0.
29.
29.
2.
13.
1.
19.
15.

1973

1980

3.
7.
23.
2.
29.
36 .
530 .
5894.
769.
70.
- 1.
26.
9.
14.
1.
2.
9.
14.
16.
5.
10.
6.
50.
502.
174.
25.
7.
106 1 .
127.
28.
3.
1.
70.
197.
3.
325.
43.
8.
32.
43.
17.
2.
1.
43.
43.
3.
26.
2.
33.
27.

3.
4.
31 .
3.
38.
30.
5 11.
5839.
1107.
77.
6.
30 .
9.
15.
1.
2.
10.
14.
19.
6.
15 •
l.

62.
682.
2 16.
28.
10.
1707 .
165.
29.
3.
1.
1 17.
26 1 .
3.
26 1 .
56.
11.
36.
57 .
21 .
2.
1.
53.
73.
4.
29.
2.
38.
32.

1985

2.
4.
26.
2.
32.
23.
395.
4634.
1064 .
60 .
7.
23.
7.
12.
0.
1.
8.
11.
15.
5.
1 1.
5.
49.
570 .
179.
22.
8.
1440 .
132.
22.
2.
1.
98.
211.
3.
207 .
45.
8.
28.
45.
16 .
2.
0.
42.
63.
3.
22.
2.
29.
25.

1990

2.
3.

21.
2.
26 .
18.
282.
3762.
924.
47 .
6.
18.
6.
9.
0.
1.
6.
9.
12.
4.
8.
4.
38.
475.
143.
17.
6.
1227.
104.
18.
2.
0.
78.
167 .
2.
167.
36.
7.
22.
35.
13.
2.
0.
34.
50 .
2.
17 .
1.
23.
19.




Table A -2 0.

Continued—State and local government purchases, education, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990

(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98

100
101
102

103
109

110
1 11
112
113
1 14
115
116
117
118
119

120
121
122

124
125
126
127
128
129
130
133
135
136
137
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
154
157
158
159

Se ct or Tit le
M a c h i n e Sh o p Pr o d u c t s
C o m p u t e r s a n d Per ip heral Equ i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Othe r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e In d u s t r y M a c h i n e s
E l e c t r i c Tr a n s m i s s i o n E q u i pment
E l e c t r i c a l Industrial A p p a r a t u s
Household Appliances
E l e c t r i c Li g h t i n g a n d M i r i n g
R a d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
Electronic Components
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electr ic al P r o d u c t s
M o t o r Ve h i c l e s
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
M e d i c a l a n d Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
O p t i c a l a n d O p h t h a l m i c Eq u i p m e n t
P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment and S u p p l i e s
Matches* C l o c k s and Clo ck O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e
M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s and S p o r t i n g G o o d s
Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products
Railroad Transportation
Loca l Transit and Int e r c i t y B u s e s
Tru c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Mater Transportation
Air Transportation
Pipeline Transportation
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Exc ept Radi o a n d Tv
R a d i o and Tv B r o a d c a s t i n g
Electric Utilities
Gas Utilities
M a t e r and S a n i t a r y S e r v i c e s
M h o l e s a l e Trade
Ret a i l Tra de
Insurance
Rea l Esta te
H o t e l s and Lodg i n g Places
P e r s o n a l and Repair Se r v i c e s
Miscellaneous Business Services
A d v e r t i si ng
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Pr o f e s s i o n a l S e r v i c e s
A u t o m o b i l e Repair
Motion Pictures
A m u s e m e n t a n d Recr e a t i o n S e r v i c e s
D o c t o r s ’ a n d Dent ist s' S e r v i c e s
Hospitals
O t h e r M e d i c a l Se r v i c e s
E d u c a t i o n a l S e r vices
Nonprofit Organizations
P o s t Office
O t h e r State and Local G o v e r n m e n t
O f f i c e Su p p l i e s
Scrap* Used* a n d S e c o n d h a n d
G o v e r n m e n t I n d ustry

1963

1967

1973

1980

1985

1990

78.
29.
49.
70.
2.
8.
8.
35.
21.
34.
3.
2.
128.
9.
3.
9.
32.
1.
6.
38.
52.
17.
293.
59.
4.
50.
2.
7 1.
4.
467.
156.
47.
208.
-540 .
117.
64.
-90.
9.
312.
2.
95.
26.
16.
-0.
8.
-3.
9.
38.
8.
16.
10.
87.
202.
29215.

123.
60.
95.
123.
8.
17.
17.
76.
42.
7 1.
6.
5.
214.
21.
9.
17.
64.
3.
11.
42.
87 .
36 .
481 .
122.
7.
106.
3.
151.
10.
873.
192.
97.
421.
-639.
165.
62.
-299.
21.
367.
4.
81.
35.
32.
-487.
46.
-7.
26.
72.
18.
34.
17.
176.
121.
37241.

196.
106.
155.
225.
9.
33.
30.
138.
67.
181.
11.
9.
340.
40.
16.
27.
119.
5.
19.
121.
131.
64.
744.
197.
14.
169.
6.
265.
21.
1726.
570 .
17 1.
775.
-1913.
349.
330 .
-664.
42.
884.
6.
235.
84.
48.
-1.
67.
-15.
39.
170.
30.
57.
25.
250.
278.
48660.

247.
139.
201.
290.
9.
37.
38.
161.
93.
306.
13.
11.
453.
48.
23.
38.
156.
6.
20.
155.
178.
81.
1097.
269.
18.
216.
7.
405.
26.
2265.
836.
213.
968.
-2906.
516.
583.
-1049.
49.
1459.
7.
302.
112.
61.
-1.
143.
-16.
58.
257.
41.
73.
33.
411.
276.
54910.

198.
117.
158.
228.
7.
28.
30.
124.
76.
283.
10.
8.
362.
37.
18.
30.
122.
5.
16.
123.
144.
64.
951.
218.
14.
173.
6.
331.
20.
1829.
739.
166.
775.
-237 1.
434.
535.
-849.
37.
1246.
6.
242.
91.
50.
-1.
135.
- 12.
48.
224.
33.
58.
26.
337.
217.
56670.

157.
96.
124.
179.
5.
22.
23.
97.
62.
27 1.
8.
7.
286.
29.
14.
24.
96.
4.
12.
97.
115.
50.
816.
172.
11.
137.
5.
262.
15.
1534.
669.
130.
645.
-1990.
368.
475.
-720.
29.
1078.
5.
192.
72.
40.
-1.
117.
- 10.
38.
202.
26.
46.
21.
268.
171.
56664.




Table A -21. State and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years, 19 6 3 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.

1
2
4
5

6
7

11

15
16
17
19

21
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
32
33
35
36
37
39
40
45
46
47
48
50
51
52
53
54
57
58
59
60

61
62
63
65

66
69
80
81
82
84
85

Sect or Title
Dairy and P o u l t r y P r o d u c t s
Meat and Li vestock P r o d u c t s
Fo od and Feed Gra i n s
Other Ag r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c t s
F o r estry and Fis hery P r o d u c t s
A g r i cultural, F o r e s t r y a n d F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Coal M i n i n g
Ne w an d R e s idential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
Ne w Nonr e s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
New Pub l i c Util i t y C o n s t r u c t i o n
All Oth er New C o n s t r u c t i o n
M a i n t e n a n c e and R e p a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n
Meat P r o d u c t s
Dairy P r o d u c t s
Can n e d and Frozen Foods
Gra in Mill Produ c t s
Bakery Products
Sug ar
Confectionary Products
Soft Dri n k s and F l a v o r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s
Fabrics, Yarn and T h r e a d M i l l s
Floor Coverings
Miscellaneous Textile Goods
Appar el
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
H o u s e h o l d Furniture
Other Fu rni ture and F i x t u r e s
Pape r Produ c t s
Paperboard
P e r i odical and Book Printing, P u b l i s h i n g
Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing
In dus trial I n o r ganic a n d O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
Ag r i c u l t u r a l Che m i c a l s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Chemi c a l P r o d u c t s
Drug s
C l e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
Pai n t s and Al li ed P r o d u c t s
P e t r o l e u m R e f ining a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
Tires and Inner Tubes
Miscellaneous Rubber Products
P l a s t i c Products
F o o twear and Oth er L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s
Glas s
Pottery and Related Products
Meta l Stampings
Cu tlery, Hand To o l s a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e
Other Fabr i c a t e d P r o d u c t s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
C o n s t r u c t i o n M i n i n g and O i l f i e l d M a c h i n e r y

1963

10.
0.
0.
8.
2.
1.
1.
0.

612.
1525.
31.
441.
96.
48.
51.
5.
15.
2.
2.
6.
27.
22.
0.
0.
22.
10.
2.
5.
23.
6.
7.
8.
22.
1.
6.
262.
17.
1.
31.
8.
22.
3.
1.
26.
2.
2.
2.
1.
2.
10.

1967
14.
1.
1.
13.
3.
1.
2.
0.
867.
1549.
50.
205.
144.
7 1.
75.
7.
23.
3.
3.
9.
41 .
23.
0.
0.
15.
16.
3.
8.
39.
9.
5.
11.
32.
2.
9.
464.
27.
2.
60 .
17.
40 .
4.
1.
40.
3.
3.
5.
2.
3.
28.

1973

22.
0.
2.
20.
5.
1.
3.
0.
889.
2255.
45.
196 .
235.
110.
119.
12.
37.
5.
5.
15.
64.
87.
1.
0.
1 10.
31.
6.
18.
89.
13.
25.
33.
49.
2.
14.
986.
49.
3.
76.
19.
85.
6.
2.
72.
5.
6.
5.
2.
5.
31.

1980

22.
1.
2.
24.
6.
1.
3.
26.
817.
2784.
47.
216.
286.
149.
146.
12.
43.
3.
7.
20.
75.
107.
2.
0.
163.
44.
9.
36.
121.
16.
47.
72.
53.
3.
15.
1701.
74.
4.
86.
36.
113.
7.
3.
106.
7.
7.
11.
3.
7.
125.

1985

1990

27.
1.
2.
29.
7.
2.
4.
26.
796.
2999.
49.
274.
366.
187.
182.
15.
53.
3.
8.
25.
93.
114.
2.
1.
165.
50.
11.
51.
133.
21.
55.
86.
67.
3.
19.
2256.
88.
5.
90.
42.
117.
8.
4.
126.
9.
9.
13.
4.
8.
215.

33.
2^
2.
35.
9.
2.
5.
25.
757.
3177.
49.
332.
452.
223.
216.
17
63.
4.
9.
29.
110.
124.
2.

1

174.
57
13
62.
149.
25.
64.
1 01.
79.
4.
22.
2813.
102.

6

93.
50.
125.

10
4.
145.
10.
11.
15.
5.
10.
266.

Table A -2 1. C o ntinu ed-S tate and local government purchases, health, welfare, and sanitation, selected historical and projected years, 1 9 6 3 to 1990
(Millions o f 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.
87

88
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98

100
101
102
103
109

110
111
112

102



113
1 14
115
116
117
118
119

120
121
122
124
126
127
128
129
130
133
135
136
137
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
154
157
158
159

Sector Title
Metal Working Machinery
S p e c i a l Indus t r y Ma c h i n e s
M a c h i n e Shop Pr o d u c t s
C o m p u t e r s and P e r i pheral E q u i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Oth e r Off i c e E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e Indus t r y Ma c h i n e s
E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n Equipment
E l e c t r i c a l Industrial A p p a r a t u s
Household Appliances
E l e c t r i c Light i n g and Wiri n g
R a d i o and Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n E q u i p m e n t
Electronic Components
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ele ctrical P r o d u c t s
M o t o r Ve h i c l e s
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
M e d i c a l a n d Den tal I n s t r u m e n t s
O p t i c a l a n d O p h t h a l m i c Equipment
P h o t o g r a p h i c E q u i pment and S u p p l i e s
Watch e s * Clocks and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e
Musical Instruments and Sporting Goods
Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products
Railroad Transportation
Loc al Tran s i t and I n t ercity B u s e s
Tr u c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Excep t Rad io a n d Tv
Electric Utilities
Gas Utilities
W a t e r and S a n i t a r y Se r v i c e s
W h o l e s a l e Tr ade
Retail Trade
Insurance
Rea l Esta te
H o t e l s and Lodgin g Pla ces
P e r s o n a l a n d Rep a i r Se r v i c e s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s B u s i n e s s Se r v i c e s
Adverti si ng
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Profes s i o n a l S e r v i c e s
A u t o m o b i l e Repai r
M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s
A m u s e m e n t and Recr e a t i o n S e r v i c e s
Do ctors' and Dent is ts' Se r v i c e s
Hospitals
O t h e r Medi c a l S e r v i c e s
E d u c a t i o n a l Se r v i c e s
Nonprofit Organizations
Post Off i c e
O t h e r S t a t e and Local G o v e r n m e n t
O f f i c e Su p p l i e s
Sc rap* Used* and S e c o n d h a n d
G o v e r n m e n t Industry

1963

2.
0.
8.
2.
5.
13.
0.
2.
9.
1.
1.
1.
0.
12.
25.
32.
64.
1.
51.
1.
1.
0.
1.
8.
9.
40.
10.
16.
1.
32.
50.
19.
9.
135.
78.
28.
70.
31.
18.
171.
0.
130.
17.
0.
0.
274.
660 .
467.
18.
1.
52.
1.
22.
- 1.
7325.

1967

1973

3.
0.
20.
3.
10.
26.
1.
3.
13.
3.
3.
2.
1.
17.
51.
49.
100.
5.
75.
1.
2.
1.
3.
13.
15.
85.
14.
28.
1.
59.
88.
20.
15.
227.
131.
55.
141.
57.
29.
265.
0.
212.
32.
0.
0.
6 16.
1287.
1120.
40.
2.
103.
2.
39.
26.
9550.

5.
1.
54.
7.
24.
33.
1.
5.
22.
6.
7.
3.
1.
31.
62.
76.
185.
8.
118.
1.
2.
1.
6.
25.
38.
212.
29.
69.
2.
144.
193.
53.
22.
424.
245.
126.
380.
151.
52.
737.
1.
528.
51.
1.
1.
1676.
2947.
3011.
109.
6.
263.
3.
99.
4.
13021.

1980

6.
1.
70.
15.
45.
105.
2.
6.
37.
8.
11.
3.
2.
52.
195.
143.
277.
12.
176.
2.
3.
3.
9.
37.
60.
296.
51.
106.
3.
238.
246.
70.
37.
587.
359.
197.
590.
240.
71.
1461.
1.
836.
87.
1.
1.
2507.
4241.
4237.
145.
10.
399.
4.
182.
3.
18461.

1985

8.
1.
68.
20.
56.
184.
2.
8.
46.
9.
11.
4.
2.
64.
321.
203.
324.
11.
221.
2.
3.
3.
9.
42.
66 .
291.
55.
117.
4.
254.
267.
83.
44.
702.
405.
197 .
630.
256.
82.
1756.
1.
929.
94.
1.
1.
2665.
4669.
4488.
140.
11.
416.
5.
198.
5.
21413.

1990
9.
1.
67.
24.
66.
249.
2.
10.
55.
9.
11.
5.
2.
76.
418.
253.
373.
11.
263.
3.
4.
3.
10.
47.
73.
299.
6 1.
130.
4.
277.
294.
96.
51.
836.
454.
204.
707 .
281.
93.
2114.
2.
1033.
102.
1.
1.
2945.
5364.
4890.
142.
12.
449.
5.
220 .
6.
23786.




Table 22. State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1 9 6 3 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected

<0 .
1
4
5

6
7

11
16

21
22

24
25
26
27
28
29
30
32
33
34
35
37
39
40
43
45
46
47
48
50
51
54
57
58
59
60

61
62
63
65

66
68
69
71
80
81
82
84
89
90
92

Sector Ti t l e
Dair y and Poultry P r o d u c t s
Food and Feed Grain s
Othe r Agricultural P r o d u c t s
Fores t r y an d Fi shery P r o d u c t s
A g r i cultural, Fores t r y and F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Coal Min i n g
New Nonresid e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
M a i n t e n a n c e and R e p a i r C o n s t r u c t i o n
O r d nance
Meat Pr o d u c t s
Dairy P r o ducts
Cann e d and Frozen Foods
Gra in Mill Produ c t s
Bakery Pro duc ts
Sug ar
C o n f e c t i o n a r y Pr o d u c t s
Soft Drin k s and F l a v o r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s
To bacco M a n u f a c t u r e r s
Fabrics, Ya rn and T h r e a d M i l l s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Text i l e Goo d s
Apparel
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Mi llwork, Plywood and O t h e r W o o d P r o d u c t s
H o u s e h o l d Furn it ure
Oth er Furn itu re a n d Fi x t u r e s
Pap er Produ c t s
Paperboard
Periodical an d Book Pri nting, P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r i n t i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Che mi cal P r o d u c t s
Dru gs
Cl e a n i n g and Toilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
Paints and Allied P r o d u c t s
P e t r o l e u m R e f ining a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
Tir es an d Inner Tu b e s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s
Plastic Pr odu cts
Fo otwear and Other L e a t h e r P r o d u c t s
Gla ss
S t r u ctural Clay P r o d u c t s
P o t t e r y and Related P r o d u c t s
Blast F u r naces and Ba s i c Ste el P r o d u c t s
Metal Stampings
Cutlery, Ha nd Tool s a n d Gene r a l H a r d w a r e
Ot her Fabricated P r o d u c t s
Farm M a c h i n e r y
Ge neral In dus tria l M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Sho p Produ c t s
T y p e w r i t e r s and O t h e r O f f i c e E q u i p m e n t

1963

2.
0.
5.
1.
2.
1.
263.
54.
7.
24.
22.
10 .
-2 .
12.
1.
3.
5.
15.
- 1.
0.
-2 .
34.
-7.
0.
2.
-3.
11.
3.
1.
2.
2.
1.
4.
-3.
34.
13.
38.
1.
2.
2.
-0 .
1.
3.
-18.
4.
-7.
4.
7.
1.
1.

1967

2.
0.
6.
1.
2.
1.
377.
102.
10 .
27.
24.
12.
-2 .
14.
1.
3.
6.
17.
- 1.
2.
-2 .
39.
-7.
0.
3.
-2 .
14.
3.
2.
4.
3.
1.
5.
-3.
43.
17.
44.
1.
2.
3.
-0.
1.
3.
-19.
5.
-8 .
5.
9.
1.
1.

1973

1980

2.
1.

2.
0.

7.
1.
3.
2.
457.
9 1.
12.
34.
31.
14.
-2 .
17.
1.
4.
7.
21.
-2 .
1.
-3.
48.
- 10.
0.
4.
-3.
17.
4.
2.
4.
2.
2.
6.
-4.
52.
19.
38.
2.
3.
3.
-0 .
2.
4.
-25.
4.
-10 .
6.
6.
1.
1.

9.
2.
3.
2.
517.
113.
14.
48.
50.
19.
-2 .
25.
1.
5.
10.
30.
-3.
- 1.
-3.
71.
-15.
0.
4.
-7.
21 .
6.
2.
3.
2.
3.
7.
-6 .
40.
23.
53.
2.
4.
5.
-1 .
3.
5.
-39.
5.
-15.
9.
8.
1.
1.

1985
3.

1.
11.
2.
5.
2.
521 .
146 .
15.
64.
70 .
25.
-3.
34.
1.
7.
12.
39.
-4.
-2 .
-4.
90 .
- 20 .
1.
4.
- 12.
24.
8.
2.
1.
3.
4.
7.
-8 .
39.
25.
63.
3.
6.
6.
-1 .
3.
6.
-54.
6.
-19.
12.
10.
2.
4

1990
3

1
12
3
5

2
513
173
15
74
82
27
-4
39

1
8

14
44
-4
-3
-4
98

- 22
1
4
-14
26

8
3

0
3
4
7
-9
36
26
76
3

6
7

-1

4
7
-62
7

- 21
13

12
2
2

Table A -2 2 . Continued—State and local government purchases, safety, selected historical and projected years, 1 9 6 3 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
,No.
93
94
95
96
97

100
101
102
103
104
105
107
109

110
112

104




113
114
115
116
117
118
119

120
121
122

124
126
127
128
129
130
133
135
136
137
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
147
148
149
150
154
157
158
159

S e c t o r Title
S e r v i c e Indus t r y Ma c h i n e s
E l e c t r i c T r a n s m i s s i o n E q u ipment
E l e c t r i c a l I n d u strial A p p a r a t u s
Household Appliances
E l e c t r i c L i g hting a n d W i r i n g
R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equ i p m e n t
Electronic Components
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Electrical P r o d u c t s
M o t o r Ve h i c l e s
Ai rcraft
S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r
Cycle s, Bi c y c l e s a n d Par ts
S c i e n t i f i c and C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
M e d i c a l and Dental I n s t r u m e n t s
P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment and S u p p l i e s
Wa t c h e s , Clo c k s and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
J e w e l r y and S i l v e r w a r e
M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g Go o d s
Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products
Railroad Transportation
Local Transit a n d Int e r c i t y B u s e s
Tr u c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Excep t Radio a n d Tv
Electric Utilities
Gas Utilities
W a t e r and S a n i t a r y S e r vices
W h o l e s a l e Tra de
R e t a i l Tra de
Insurance
Re al Esta te
H o t e l s and Lodg i n g Place s
P e r s o n a l and R e p a i r Servi c e s
Miscellaneous Business Services
Adve rt i si ng
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Pr o f e s s i o n a l S e r v i c e s
A u t o m o b i l e Repair
M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s
A m u s e m e n t a n d Recr e a t i o n S e r v i c e s
Doctors' and Dent is ts' S e r v i c e s
Other Medical Services
Educational Services
Nonprofit Organizations
P o s t Office
O t h e r Sta t e a n d Loc al G o v e r n m e n t
Office Supplies
Scra p, Used, a n d S e c o n d h a n d
G o v e r n m e n t In d u s t r y

1963

1967

1973

1980

3.
1.
0.
3.
4.
17.
9.
3.
94.
2.
4.
6.
4.
2.
5.
0.
1.
2.
-2 0 .
4.
5.
20.
2.
10.
1.
44.
44.
15.
5.
64.
1.
7.
25.
20.
6.
80.
1.
24.
24.
2.
0.
0.
8.
26.
9.
12.
4.
15.
-30.
6104.

3.
1.
0.
3.
5.
21.
12.
4.
116.
2.
5.
9.
5.
3.
6.
0.
1.
2.
-23.
4.
7.
23.
2.
13.
1.
54.
50.
13.
6.
82.
1.
9.
14.
26.
8.
92.
1.
28.
29.
3.
1.
0.
9.
30.
13.
15.
5.
20.
-3.
7391.

4.
1.
0.
4.
6.
20.
10.
5.
131.
3.
7.
10.
6.
3.
8.
0.
1.
3.
-23.
5.
8.
31.
2.
14.
1.
70.
64.
21.
6.
92.
1.
10.
41.
30.
9.
114.
1.
34.
36.
3.
1.
1.
11.
41.
15.
16.
6.
23.
-13.
10228.

7.
1.
1.
6.
7.
25.
15.
7.
173.
4.
7.
12.
8.
4.
11.
0.
1.
4.
-36.
7.
11.
39.
3.
18.
2.
98.
80.
25.
9.
114.
1.
13.
48.
40.
11.
149.
1.
43.
46.
4.
1.
1.
17.
51.
20.
22.
8.
33.
- 11.
12816.

1985

8.
1.
1.
8.
9.
29.
17.
8.
195.
4.
7.
13.
8.
5.
14.
1.
2.
5.
-45.
8.
12.
44.
4.
21.
2.
113.
95.
30.
11.
135.
2.
14.
52.
46.
12.
171.
1.
51.
51.
4.
1.
1.
23.
60.
21.
26.
9.
37.
- 11.
14195.

1990
9.
1.
1.
9.
9.
33.
19.
8.
217.
4.
8.
13.
9.
6.
15.
1.
2.
6.
-51.
9.
13.
48.
4.
23.
2.
125.
103.
33.
12.
149.
2.
15.
55.
50.
12.
191.
1.
55.
55.
4.
1.
1.
25.
66.
22.
28.
9.
39.
- 11.
15168.




Table A -23. State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Projected
No.

1
2
4
5

6
7

11

13
14
15
16
17
18
19

21
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
32
33
35
36
3-9
40
43
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
69
80
81
83

Sector T i t l e
Da i r y an d P o u l t r y P r o d u c t s
Me at and Live sto ck P r o d u c t s
Food and Fe ed Grains
Other A g r i cultural P r o d u c t s
Fo r e s t r y an d Fishery P r o d u c t s
A g r i cultural, Fores t r y a n d F i s h e r y S e r v i c e s
Coal M i n i n g
St o n e a n d C l a y M i n i n g a n d Q u a r r y i n g
Chemical and Fert i l i z e r M i n e r a l s M i n i n g
New and Residential B u i l d i n g s C o n s t r u c t i o n
New Nonr e s i d e n t i a l B u i l d i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n
New Pub l i c Utility C o n s t r u c t i o n
New H i g h w a y C o n s t r u c t i o n
All Other New C o n s t r u c t i o n
M a i n t e n a n c e and Repair C o n s t r u c t i o n
Meat Pr o d u c t s
Dairy Pr o d u c t s
C a n n e d and Froz en Foods
Grai n Mill Pr oducts
Bake r y P r o d u c t s
Sug ar
C o n f e c t i o n a r y Produ c t s
Soft Dri n k s and F l a v o r i n g s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Food P r o d u c t s
Fabrics, Yar n an d T h r e a d M i l l s
Flo or C o v e r i n g s
Ap parel
Miscellaneous Fabricated Textile Products
Mi llw ork, P l y w o o d and O t h e r Ulood P r o d u c t s
H o u s e h o l d Furniture
Ot h e r Fu r n i t u r e and F i x t u r e s
Paper Pr o d u c t s
Paperboard
N e w s p a p e r Pr i n t i n g a n d P u b l i s h i n g
P e r iodical a n d Book Pri n t i n g , P u b l i s h i n g
Miscellaneous Printing and Publishing
Industrial I n o r ganic a n d O r g a n i c C h e m i c a l s
Agric u l t u r a l C h e m i c a l s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Ch emical P r o d u c t s
Drug s
C l e a n i n g and To ilet P r e p a r a t i o n s
Paints and Allied Products
P e t r o l e u m Refin i n g a n d R e l a t e d P r o d u c t s
Tires and Inn er Tub es
M i s c e l l a n e o u s Rubber P r o d u c t s
P l a s t i c Pr o d u c t s
P o t t e r y and Related P r o d u c t s
Met al S t a m p i n g s
Cu tlery, Hand Too ls a n d G e n e r a l H a r d w a r e
Engines, T u r b i n e s a n d G e n e r a t o r s

1963

1.
1.
5.
46.
2.
4.
5.
-54.
36.
569.
1831.
2100.
10648.
877.
3514.
29.
7.
1 1.
4.
6.
0.
1.
4.
6.
1.
0.
2.
6.
0.
4.
81 .
47.
1.
0.
23.
109.
15.
61.
1.
1.
20.
1.
85.
35.
14.
11.
0.
1.
5.
4.

1967

1.
3.
6.
52.
2.
13.
5.
-62.
41 .
906 .
2571 .
3072.
11335.
1396 .
4 144.
28.
7.
11.
5.
6.
0.
1.
4.
6.
1.
0.
2.
7.
0.
4.
93.
50.
1.
0.
78.
128.
18.
64.
26.
1.
33.
2.
10 1 .
36.
12.
11.
0.
1.
6.
10.

1973
3.

2.
6.
77.
4.
2.
9.
-41 .
28.
745.
2886.
2245.
9290 .
827.
4101.
64.
16.
24.
7.
13.
1.
2.
8.
13.
1.
1.
4.
10.
0.
4.
1 15.
106.
1.
1.
54.
264.
12.
77.
2.
3.
38.
3.
170.
58.
11.
19.
1.
2.
9.
7.

1980
3.

6.
6.
106.
5.
9.
9.
-6 8 .
51.
729.
3093.
2412.
8153.
914.
4748.
84.
23.
32.
8.
16.
1.
2.
1 1.
16.
2.
1.
7.
15.
1.
15.
179.
132.
2.
1.
79.
407.
18.
1 12.
2.
4.
56.
4.
148.
95.
19.
25.
1.
3.
13.
14.

1985
3.
7.

6.
113.
5.
15.
10.
-63.
46.
810.
3140.
2553.
817 1.
97 1.
5129.
91.
25.
35.
9.
18.
1.
2.
12.
17.
2.
2.
8.
18.
1.
14.
186.
149.
2.
2.
87.
451 .
17.
112.
3.
5.
64.
5.
158.
97.
17.
24.
2.
3.
16.
15.

1990
3.
7.

6.

114.
6.
16.
10.
-63.
47.
800 .
3184.
26 17.
8204.
998.
5163.
97.
27.
38.
10.
19.
1.
3.
13.
18.
2.
2.
8.
19.
1.
15.
199.
157.
2.
2.
92.
489.
20.
109.
3.
5.
67.
5.
163.
98.
16.
24.
2.
4.
16.
16.

Table A -2 3. Continued—State and local government purchases, other, selected historical and projected years, 1963 to 1990
(Millions of 1972 dollars)

Proj ect e d
No.
84
85
87

88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99

100
10 1
102
103
105
106
109

110
111
112
113
115
116
117
118
119

120
121
122

☆ US. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1979 0-281-412 (114)




124
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
135
136
137
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
147
148
149
150
154
157
158
159

Sect or Titl e
Fa r m M a c h i n e r y
Construction Mining and Oilfield Machinery
Metal Working Machinery
S p e c i a l Industry M a c h i n e s
G e n e r a l In dus trial M a c h i n e r y
M a c h i n e Sho p Pr o d u c t s
C o m p u t e r s and Peri p h e r a l E q u i p m e n t
T y p e w r i t e r s and Other Offic e E q u i p m e n t
S e r v i c e I n d ustry M a c h i n e s
E l e c t r i c Tr a n s m i s s i o n Equ ipment
E l e c t r i c a l In dus trial App a r a t u s
Household Appliances
E l e c t r i c Light i n g a n d Wiri n g
R a d i o a n d Tv R e c e i v i n g Sets
T e l e p h o n e and T e l e g r a p h A p p a r a t u s
R a d i o and C o m m u n i c a t i o n Equipment
E l e c t r o n i c Comp o n e n t s
M i s c e l l a n e o u s El ect rical P r o d u c t s
M o t o r Ve h i c l e s
S h i p a n d Boat B u i l d i n g and R e p a i r
R a i l r o a d Eq uipment
S c i e n t i f i c an d C o n t r o l l i n g I n s t r u m e n t s
M e d i c a l a n d Dental Instr u m e n t s
O p t i c a l a n d O p h t h a l m i c Equ ip ment
P h o t o g r a p h i c Equipment and S u p p l i e s
Watch e s * Cloc k s and Clock O p e r a t e d D e v i c e s
M u s i c a l I n s t r u m e n t s a n d S p o r t i n g Goo d s
Other Miscellaneous Manufactured Products
Railroad Transportation
Loc al Tran s i t and I n t ercity B u s e s
Tr u c k T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Water Transportation
Air T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
Pipeline Transportation
C o m m u n i c a t i o n s Except Radio a n d Tv
E l e c t r i c Uti l i t i e s
Gas U t i l i t i e s
W a t e r a n d S a n i t a r y Servi c e s
W h o l e s a l e Tra de
R e t a i l Tra de
Bank ing
C r e d i t A g e n c i e s a n d Finan ci al B r o k e r s
Insurance
Rea l Esta te
H o t e l s and Lodging Place s
P e r s o n a l and Repair S e r vices
M i s c e l l a n e o u s B u s i n e s s Servi c e s
Ad verti si ng
M i s c e l l a n e o u s P r o fessional S e r v i c e s
A u t o m o b i l e Re pair
M o t i o n Pi c t u r e s
A m u s e m e n t and R e c r e a t i o n S e r v i c e s
Doctors' and Den ti st s' Se r v i c e s
O t h e r Medical Se r v i c e s
E d u c a t i o n a l Servi c e s
Nonprofit Organizations
Po s t O f f i c e
O t h e r St a t e and Local G o v e r n m e n t
O f f i c e S u p plies
Scr ap * Used* and Seco n d h a n d
G o v e r n m e n t Industry

1963
18.
176.
11.

1967
18.

121.
16 .

0 .

0 .

4.

8.

2.
9.
33.
5.
56.
35.
0 .

8.
1.

3.
8.
45.
6.
47.
31.
1.
10.
1.

1973
27.
123.
22.
1.
8.
2.
14.
47.
10.
126.
78.
0 .

0 .

0 .

11.
2.
1.

23.
2.
8.
592.
2.
12.
22.
2.
2.
19.
1.
27.
10.
29.
41.
72.
4.
77.
2.
256.
420.
73.
-8 8 .
189.
8.
1001.
140.
44.
319.
141.
10.
373.
27.
49.
74.
7.
-13.

31.
4.
9.
672.
2.
11.
32.
1.
0.
35.
1.
39.
11.
31.
68.
100 .
5.
98.
2.
277.
529.
78.
-62.
222.
11.
1022.
144.
60.
328.
160.
10.
633.
27.
135.
91 .
5.
-6 .

37.
4.
13.
841.
4.
27.
44.
3.
3.
43.
1.
51.
18.
51.
90.
147.
7.
169.
4.
606 .
591.
146.
-16 1 .
325.
15.
2437.
342.
103.
759.
323.
23.
898.
64.
100.
158.
12.
-26.

0 .

0 .

0 .

22.

23.
41.
19.
123.
4.
113.
1335.
12055.

54.
41.
74.
277.
10.
253.
648.
15341.

19.
23.
118.
4.
109.
632.
10073.

1980

1985

44.
129.
24.
1.
12.
5.
27.
72.
14.
135.
85.
1.
18.
3.
1.
37.
6.
21.
1151.
6.
24.
48.
6.
5.
6 1.
2.
78.
29.
76.
133.
194.
11.
238.
5.
1069.
776.
196.
-298.
463.
23.
3449.
469.
149.
1078.
465.
32.
1353.
91.
144.
239.
21.
-51.
1.
74.
55.
97.
376.
13.
402.
805.
18914.

41.
123.
23.
1.
11.
5.
25.
69.
14.
141.
90.
1.
20.
4.
1.
38.
6.
72.
1102.
6.
23.
48.
6.
6.
69.
2.
90.
33.
78.
145.
206.
11.
261.
6.
1386.
784.
202.
-316.
477.
24.
4114.
529.
166.
1304.
520.
36.
1649.
10 1 .
164.
264.
22.
-53.
1.
83.
63.
106.
425.
15.
453.
731.
20243.

1990
40.
127.
25.
1.
11.
5.
24.
7 1.
14.
165.
105.
0 .

21.

4.
1.
43.
7.
73.
1197.
7.
27.
52.
6.
7.
76.
2.
93.
34.
80.
154.
214.
11.
276.
6.
1586.
797.
200.
-36 1.
493.
25.
4581.
555.
174.
1459.
551.
37.
1837.
107.
172.
281.
23.
-64.
1.
87.
66.
114.
446.
16.
476.
739.
22508.

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Regional Offices

Region I

Region IV

Regions VII and V III*

1 6 0 3 J F K F e d e ra l B u ild in g

1371 P e a c h tre e S tre e t, N E .

911 W aln u t S tr e e t

G o v e r n m e n t C e n te r

A tlan ta. G a 3 0 3 0 9

K ansas C ity, M o. 6 4 1 0 6

B o sto n . M ass 0 2 2 0 3

P h o n e: (4 0 4 ) 8 8 1 -4 4 1 8

P h o n e: (8 1 6 ) 3 7 4 -2 4 8 1

P h o n e: (6 1 7 ) 2 2 3 -6 7 6 1

Region V
Region II

9 th F lo o r

R egions IX and X **
4 5 0 G o ld e n G a te A v e n u e

S u ite 3 4 0 0

F e d e ra l O ffic e B u ild in g

Box 3 6 0 1 7

1515 B ro a d w a y

2 3 0 S D e a rb o rn S tre e t

S an F ra n c is c o . C alif. 9 4 1 0 2

N e w York. N Y 1 0 0 3 6

C h ic a g o . III. 6 0 6 0 4

Phone: (4 1 5 )5 5 6 -4 6 7 8

Phone: (2 1 2 )3 9 9 -5 4 0 5

P h o n e :(3 1 2 )3 5 3 -1 8 8 0

Region III

Region VI

3 5 3 5 M a r k e t S tre e t

S e c o n d F lo o r

P O

5 5 5 G riffin S q u a re B u ild in g

Box 1 3 3 09

P h ila d e lp h ia , Pa 19101

D allas. Tex. 7 5 2 0 2

P h o n e : (2 1 5 ) 5 9 6 -1 1 5 4

P h o n e : (2 1 4 ) 7 4 9 -3 5 1 6




* Regions VII and VIII are serviced
by Kansas City
"Regions IX and X are serviced
by San Francisco