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Employment Outlook in the Automobile Industry Bulletin No. 1138 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR M a r t i n P. D u r k i n , Secretary BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Ewan Clague, Commissioner In cooperation with VETERANS ADMINISTRATION For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. — Price 25 cents Cover picture— Automobiles coming off the final assembly line. The photographs reproduced in this bulletin are by the courtesy of the Automobile Manufacturers Association. Letter o f Transmittal U nited S tates D epartment of L abor, B ureau of Labor S tatistics, Washington , D. C., February 24,1953. The S ecretary of L abor: I have the honor to transmit herewith a report on the employment out look in the automobile industry. This is one of a series of Occupational Out look studies for use in the vocational counseling of veterans, young people in schools, and others interested in choosing a field of work. The study was financed largely by the Veterans Administration, and the report was orig inally published as a Veterans Administration pamphlet for use in vocational rehabilitation and education activities. The study was conducted in the Bureau's Division of Manpower and Em ployment Statistics under the supervision of Sol SwerdlofF. The report was prepared by E. Eleanor Rings and Arthur D. Rosenberg with the assistance of Evelyn R. Kay. The Bureau wishes to acknowledge the generous assistance received in connection with this study from officials of labor unions, trade associations, automobile companies, and various government agencies. Hon. Martin P. D urkin , Secretary of Labor. E wan Clague, Commissioner. Contents Page The automobile industry ......................................................................................................................... 2 Organization ...................................................................................................................................... 2 Size ......................................................................................................................................................... 2 Location ................................................................................................................................................ 3 How automobiles are made....................................................................................................................... 4 Planning for new model production.................................................................................. 4 Making automobile parts ............................................................................................................... 6 Production on the final assembly line.......................................................................................... 8 Jobs in the industry.................................................................................................................................... 9 Technical occupations .............................................................................................................................. 10 Plant occupations .......................... 12 Metalworking ........................................................................................................... 12 Machining .................................................................................................................................... 12 Foundry ........................................................................................................................................ 13 Forging ........................................................................................................................................ 13 Other metalworking occupations ......................................................................................... 14 Assembling ...................... 15 Inspection ............................................................................................................................................ 16 Finishing ............................................................................................................................................. 16 Material movement and maintenance ........................................................................................ 17 Administrative and office occupations.................................................................................................. 17 Earnings and working conditions.............................................................................. 19 Earnings ............................................................................................................................................. 19 Other employee benefits............................................... 19 Working conditions ........................................................................................................................... 21 Labor organizations ......................................................................................................................... 22 Trends in production and employment.............................................................. 22 Early growth of the industry........................................................................................ 22 Employment since World War II.................................................................................................. 23 Defense activities of automobile companies.................................................... 25 Employment outlook ................................................................................................................................ 26 Prospects for 1953 and 1954............................................................................................................ 27 Long-range prospects ..................................................................... 27 Tables 1. Concentration of employment in the automobile industry in large plants contrasted with average for all-manufacturing industries ............................................................. 2. Estimated number of workers in selected plant occupations in the motor vehicle industry, fourth quarter, 1952.............................................................................................. 3. Average straight-time hourly earnings for selected occupations in the automobile industry, by type of plant, United States, February-April 1950 ......................... 4. Increase in use of passenger cars, 1920-75................................................................................... 3 10 20“ 28 Charts 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Assemblers make up the largest occupational group in the automobile industry........ Automobile industry has better than average safety record ............................................ Trend in production of motor vehicles, 1910-1952 .................................................................. Trend of employment in the automobile industry, 1939-1952 ............................................ Trend in motor vehicle registration and number scrapped ............................................... 9 21 23 24 29 V E m ploym ent O u tlook in th e A u tom ob ile Industry Few inventions have made such an impact on everyday life as has the automobile. The commonplaceness of motor vehicles makes it hard to imagine a world without them, and yet they are a twentieth century product. About two-thirds of the families in the United States own automobiles. This country manufactured nearly 78 percent of the world's passenger cars and more than 57 percent of all trucks in 1951. At the beginning of 1953, some 53 million passenger cars and trucks traveled along the Nation's streets and high ways. With production of at least 5 million motor vehicles a year for the last 4 years, it is easy to understand why the automobile industry has become one of the giants of American en terprise and of major importance in the econ omy. It provides jobs for more workers than any other industry. The automobile industry is a pioneer and an excellent example of mass-production tech nology. Its basic characteristic is the manufac ture of great quantities of identical parts which are completely interchangeable and which can be assembled speedily into completed units. The industry is the major consumer of many basic commodities, such as steel, rubber, and glass. As the largest single customer of the steel industry, the automobile industry uses nearly one-fifth of all the steel produced in the United States. Because of its large size—more than 900,000 workers were employed at the beginning of 1953—and its basic importance in the Nation's economic and social life, the automobile in dustry will continue to be a major source of new job opportunities. In a typical year the industry will hire many thousands of new em ployees to replace the large number of workers who die, retire from the work force, or leave the industry to take jobs in other fields. These replacement vacancies will create most of the new job openings that the industry fills. A thorough study of the trends in automobile pro duction, technology, and employment leads to the conclusion that the industry will not sub stantially increase its employment in the fore seeable future, despite the ever-growing num ber of cars and trucks on our streets and highways. The automobile industry provides many job opportunities for men and women in a wide range of occupations. Training requirements vary from college degrees for engineers and other technical personnel to a few days of onthe-job training for some of the less skilled assemblers. About an eighth of the industry's work force are women. Most automobile em ployees work in modern factory buildings where the working conditions and the safety records are good. On the average, earnings are higher than in most other manufacturing industries. The automobile industry provides opportu nity for persons whose abilities and interests may differ widely. It employs a large force of technical personnel. The largest group are the various types of engineers: automotive, me chanical, electrical, and industrial. Other tech nical personnel include chemists, metallurgists, and draftsmen. Some automobile employees work in office and administrative occupations. Their jobs range from clerks and business machine operators to accountants and purchas ing agents, from stenographers and typists to market analysts and industrial relations per sonnel. However, by far the largest number of automobile workers are those in factory 1 2 EM PLOYM ENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE IN D U STR Y occupations. These include many skilled crafts men such as tool and die makers, millwrights, hammermen, and electricians as well as lesser skilled machine operators and assemblers. This report discusses the employment out look for the industry. It outlines the trend of employment and production and lists some of the factors that will affect employment pros pects in the next few years and over the long run. It presents the duties and training re quirements for some of the more important occupations. Information regarding earnings and working conditions is also included. The Automobile Industry ous outside suppliers. A manufacturer of a complete motor vehicle may purchase axles from one supplier, bodies from a second, and transmissions and gears from a third, and finally assemble the motor vehicle in his own plant. The other segment of the automobile industry consists of the automotive parts plants special izing in the production of parts and subassem blies of the motor vehicle and employing about 40 percent of the automobile industry's total work force. These firms supply parts for the Organization o f the Industry new automobile and also produce the replace The automobile industry consists of some ment parts necessary to keep the millions of 1,900 plants organized roughly into two types: automobiles in operation. Included in this seg (1) those which turn out complete vehicles, ment are plants which specialize in producing and (2) those which make parts to be as such items as passenger-car bodies, engines, sembled into these vehicles or to be used as brakes, clutches, axles, radiators, and transmisions, as well as those which make accessories replacement parts. such as defrosters, heaters, and windshield About 60 percent of the workers in the auto wipers. Plants making truck and bus bodies mobile industry are employed by about 35 com and truck trailers also are included in this panies which produce complete motor vehicles. group. In 1951, the largest automobile company in the world mass-produced more than 2.5 million Size of the Industry motor vehicles. However, a number of small firms turn out only a few custom-built vehicles One of the most significant characteristics of such as fire engines and racing cars. Although a automobile is the size of oper few of the larger companies manufacture a con ations. In manufacturing general, most of the automobile siderable proportion of the parts that make up plants are large, with a few of both the complete vehicle, all of the automobile com manufacturing and assemblingcapable the automo panies obtain many of their parts from numer bile's more than 16,000 parts. However, plants range in size from huge factories employing 1 Not considered part of this industry, however, are plants which 25,000 or more workers down to small plants make many of the accessories of a motor vehicle, like headlamps, body hardware, tires, ignition systems, and storage batteries. These that employ only a few workers. products are produced in establishments classified in other indus tries. The definition of the industry used in this report is SIC 371— According to the 1950 Annual Survey of Motor Vehicles and Motor-Vehicle Equipment. (Standard Industrial Classification, Bureau of the Budget, November 1945.) Manufactures, about two-thirds of all auto The automobile industry is composed of plants making the thousands of parts which go into motor vehicles and assembling these parts into completed vehicles. Besides making pas senger cars and trucks, the industry produces special types of motor vehicles, such as busses, fire engines, ambulances, hearses, and many kinds of trailers. Automobile companies also manufacture the thousands of replacement parts used each year to service and repair vehicles.1 THE AUTOMOBILE IN D U STR Y mobile workers were employed in 75 establish ments, each having 2,500 or more employees. By way of comparison, less than one-fifth of all manufacturing employees in the United States worked in establishments with 2,500 or more employees (table 1). The large plants are generally those which produce complete ve hicles. Assembly operations require a large area to accommodate the huge quantities of parts and equipment and the sizable work force needed to turn out hundreds of complete ve hicles a day. Parts and accessories plants are generally much smaller, Because of the vast quantities of materials and large amount of metalworking operations involved in producing parts and assembling them into complete automobiles, capital require ments in the industry are high. The thousands of special tools, dies, and jigs used in the many metalworking operations range in cost from a few hundred dollars to over a million dollars. A set of dies, for example, used in stamping out the body of a car amounts to as much as a million dollars, and the huge press equipped with such dies runs as high as $750,000. How ever, the large volume production absorbs these tremendous costs so that at the end of the use of the die, the cost per car may be only 4 or 5 dollars. A few automobile companies produce the bulk of all motor vehicles. The 3 major auto mobile manufacturers, each producing 3 or more different makes of passenger cars, turned out 87 percent of all passenger cars and 80 percent of all the trucks made in the United States in 1952. The remaining motor vehicles were made by about 30 other firms. Table 1.—Concentration of employment in large plants contrasted w ith average for all-m anufacturing industries Manufacturing establishments with average employment of: Percentage of workers by plant-size groups Automobile industry _________ All plant sizes___ 1-249 employees_____________ _ 250-499 employees . ___________ 500-999 employees____________ 1000-2499 employees___________ 2500 or over employees__________ 100.0 5.1 3.6 7.1 21.5 62.7 All-manufacturing industries 100.0 41.0 14.0 13.0 14.4 17.6 Source: 1950 Annual Survey of Manufactures, U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 3 Location of the Industry Plants making automobiles and parts are scattered throughout 41 States. Automobile manufacturing, however, is concentrated in the Great Lakes region, where more than fourfifths of the workers are employed. Michigan alone accounted for more than half the industry’s employment in 1951. Another 18 percent were employed in its 2 neighboring States of Ohio and Indiana. Seven other automobile-produc ing States each employed 10,000 or more auto mobile workers: New York, Wisconsin, Penn sylvania, California, Illinois, New Jersey, and Missouri. Detroit is the center of the industry. About one out of every three of the Nation’s automo bile workers is employed within its industrial area which includes such nearby communities as Dearborn and Pontiac. Several other Michi gan cities, especially Flint, Lansing, Saginaw, and Ypsilanti, employ large numbers of auto mobile workers. The Great Lakes region has many other important centers, particularly Cleveland, Toledo, and Cincinnati, Ohio; South Bend, Indianapolis, and Fort Wayne, Ind.; Chicago, 111.; and Milwaukee and Kenosha, Wis. In the East, Buffalo, N. Y., has a large cluster of automobile facilities. Much of the automobile manufacturing on the East Coast is centered in the New York-Northeastern New Jersey industrial area in such localities as Newark, Linden, and New Brunswick, N. J .; and New York and Tarrytown, N. Y. Other large facilities in the East are located in the industrial areas of Philadelphia, Pa., Balti more, Md., and Wilmington, Del. The indus try’s operations in central United States and the South are concentrated in St. Louis and Kansas City, Mo.; Kansas City, Kans.; and Atlanta, Ga. The Los Angeles industrial area is not only the leading automobile manufac turing center in the Pacific Coast region, but it is second only to Detroit in the number of motor vehicles assembled. Oakland is also an automobile manufacturing center in California. The growth of automobile centers in various parts of the country reflects the leading auto mobile manufacturers’ policy of building as sembly plants in the major market areas of 4 EMPLOYM ENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDU STRY the Nation to avoid the relatively higher freight charges made on completely assembled vehicles. Unassembled parts are packed and shipped more compactly than the whole car. For example, only 4 completely assembled auto mobiles can be loaded on a freight car; but unassembled, the equivalent of 40 automobiles can be shipped in 1 car. The branch plants receive and assemble these many parts and distribute the automobiles in their respective areas more economically. Based on estimates published in 1950,2 $46.00 a car was saved by shipping the parts from Detroit and assembling the car in New Jersey. How Automobiles Are Made One look at the intricate mechanism inside a modern motor is convincing proof that its en gineering represents a triumph for the indus trial era in which we live. To visualize the complexity of automotive manufacture, how ever, the engineering feat of making one car must be multiplied by the production of several million motor vehicles within the course of a year. A single automobile or truck requires the putting together of some 16,000 separate parts, all of which must conform to rigid spec ifications. The size of a part often must be controlled to limits measured in thousandths of an inch. Despite the number of parts and the accuracy of their size, in many plants through out the United States automobiles are driven off assembly lines at rates exceeding one per minute. This amazing record is possible because cer tain mass-production techniques are used. The making of automobiles is one of the best ex amples of American manufacturing methods. The mass-production system is characterized by the manufacture of thousands of identical parts which are completely interchangeable. Parts are carried by moving belts or conveyors to work stations nearest the point where they are to be used. The workers then join these parts or assemble them, performing only a limited number of operations on each unit. Extensive preliminary planning and organiza tion of every minute detail of the entire pro ductive process is necessary. Motor vehicles are produced in three major stages. The first stage is the preliminary plan ning and engineering before new model produc tion is begun, the second is the production of motor vehicle parts, and the third is the final assembly of these parts into completed vehicles. Planning for New Model Production Preparation for the production of a new model usually requires 1 to 5 years of research and development. The major automobile pro ducers maintain research laboratories and tech nical staffs who constantly test present models, devise changes, and study theoretical problems which eventually will result in mechanical im provement in some part of the vehicles. Plans for new designs of automobile models are made Modelmakers prepare small-scale clay models as one step in the design of a new model of an automobile. by engineers, body stylists, and fabric de signers. Public opinion testers are constantly gathering information concerning the demands of the automobile-buying public, and the de signers and engineers are always trying to - Alderfer, E. B., and Michl, H. E., Economics of American In dustry, McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1950, p. 105. HOW AUTOMOBILES ARE MADE translate these wants into designs that are ac ceptable to most of the public. Separate plans are incorporated into several small-scale clay models which are studied by company officials. An initial decision is made on one of these clay models and a new style may be on its way. The side view of the selected clay model may be transferred, full size, to a blackboard for a discussion of the many small details of styling. After the details have been decided, a fullscale clay model is created. Clay is used because of the ease in altering surface lines until agree ment on final styling is reached. From the clay models, full-scale replicas of the major sec tions of the car are either made in solid ma hogany or cast in plaster. From these, the master dies are made. While this exacting process is going on, a full-sized model in wood is being constructed with inferior and exterior parts exactly as wanted. Changes in seating capacity, interior styling, and upholstery are made at this time. Plaster casts are also made of many special equipment items such as head lights. These casts, as well as the replicas of the other parts of the car, are used to build parts for the first few handmade running models. The introduction of a new mechanical im provement in a motor vehicle must be balanced against the estimated cost of producing it. Sev eral alternate methods of manufacturing the new improvement are studied, and costs are compared. The part of subassembly may be produced by the motor vehicle manufacturer, or an outside supplier may be asked to bid on pro ducing the newly designed part or subassembly. When a new model of an automobile is about to be put into production, engineers use small-scale models of men, machinery, and materials in planning the new plant layout. 5 6 EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY In addition to metal, motor vehicle parts are Throughout the planning stage, automotive parts companies work closely with the motor made from a wide variety of other materials, vehicle manufacturer on designing, engineer such as glass, rubber, plastic, and fabric. Most parts, however, are made from one of the three ing, and tooling problems. metals—steel, copper, and aluminum. A schedule is drawn up showing the “make- basic The automobile industry is one of the Nation’s ready” time necessary to prepare the plant for principal consumers of these metals. new model production, and also the time re quired for suppliers to order and install new Metal parts for motor vehicles are shaped in machine tools and be ready to start deliveries. several ways depending upon the purpose for Plans for model changeover require a de which the part is to be used, the metal from tailed study of the factory layout in order to which it is made, and its size. The principal provide for efficient placement of new machines metal shapes from which parts are made are and for a continuous flow of materials and castings, forgings, sheets, and bars. Castings parts. Scale models of the plant, machines, are made in foundries where molten metal is and work stations are made to show every poured into molds and allowed to cool and detail of the factory building in miniature. harden into the desired shape. Forge shops also Any bottlenecks that might possibly develop shape metal by heating and pounding it into in the operations of a plant are ironed out at shape. Sheet and bar steel used for the body this point. Balanced final assembly line opera and frame of the car are obtained from steel tions depend upon an even flow of parts and rolling mills. subassemblies. Most of the large automobile companies and When a changeover is made, specialized ma many parts companies have their own foundry chine tools used by the automotive industry departments where metal castings are made. must be retooled. Although a large number of These foundries specialize in producing large the machine tools already in the plant may be quantities of identical castings for such parts utilized for new model production, they will of the vehicle as the engine block. To make a probably have to be reequipped with new cut casting, a wood or metal pattern, shaped to ting tools and dies, and the fixtures and jigs the desired specifications of the casting, is first which hold the work to be machined may have made. A sand mixture is prepared, then packed to be replaced. New gages to check dimensions and rammed about the pattern. Any hollow of parts for the new model will be required also. space desired in the casting must be carefully shaped by the use of “cores” placed in the sand As new machine tools are received, they are mold. When the mold is complete, the pattern tested and installed in accordance with the is removed and molten metal is poured into the scale model of the factory layout. As the date mold and allowed cool. The sand mold is for introducing the new model nears, produc then shaken off, andtoexcess and sand are tion departments along the assembly line must removed from the casting. metal Machines for mak be closed down for a short period. While the ing molds for castings are used in many of the new machinery is being installed and tested, foundries operated by motor vehicle companies. other machines are being retooled and conveyor and power lines are being changed. Forge shops make rough metal parts, but by a different process. Forging is similar to the work of the oldtime blacksmith. The metal is Making Automobile Parts heated and then pounded into the desired form. Most automotive plants never manufacture In a modern forge shop the pounding is done a complete car or truck. They specialize in by mechanical steam hammers of great pres producing one particular part, such as pistons sure. Such shaping produces metal capable of or bearings, or in making one of the major withstanding great stress. Forgings are there motor vehicle subassemblies, such as bodies or fore used to make such parts as the axle and axles. crankshaft of the car. HOW AUTOMOBILES ARE MADE M any body parts are formed by large presses which stamp them out of sheet steel. The large sections of the body of the car are formed from sheet steel shaped by huge elec tronically controlled presses. Smaller parts of the vehicle are also stamped or pressed out of sheet steel or aluminum. Metal parts usually require some machining before they are assembled. Machining is a process of cutting or chipping away metal from a part by the use of a machine tool. A machine tool shapes metal by holding the part against the tool so that metal is cut or shaved from the part. There are many types of machine tools. Among the more common types are the engine lathe and turret lathe in which the metal part to be cut is rotated against the cutting tool; boring and drilling machines which make holes in metal parts; grinding machines which have abrasive wheels that remove metal from the part; milling machines which shape the part with a saw-toothed tool; and planers and shapers which plane the flat surfaces of the part. These tools are set up to operate with great precision; many are electronically controlled and can per form a series of machining operations auto matically. For example, in one large motor ve hicle plant, engine blocks are made from rough castings by a machine that automatically per forms almost every type of machining opera tion and makes 157 holes in the engine block before the cycle of operations is complete. No 7 handling of the block is required throughout the entire cycle. Inspection throughout the manufacturing process insures that the quality of the as sembled vehicle will meet the established standards of performance. Such inspection be gins with a spot check of incoming raw ma terials from which parts are to be made. All machining operations require careful inspec tion to detect tool wear so that the parts pro duced will not vary gradually from the specified limits. Many of the parts, if they varied by as much as a thousandth of an inch, would not function properly in the finished vehicle or would slow the assembly operation. In mass production, manufactured parts must be iden tical if they are to be interchangeable. Specially designed gages are used to measure the ac curacy of machining operations. Many metal parts must be painted or given some other finish to make them rustproof. They are hung on conveyors, pass through paint spray booths, and move on through dry ing ovens. These ovens look like tunnels and are lined with infrared lights which bake in the finish or the paint as the part travels through the oven. Body plants which produce complete bodies for motor vehicles are usually located near the H ighly automatic machine tools are used in making automobiles. Here one man operates a ten-station transfer drilling machine which can bore 134 holes at once. 8 EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY A painter spraying fenders. Conveyors carry the painted parts through an oven where they are baked with infrared radiation. final assembly plants. The large parts of the motor vehicle body are formed on huge presses from sheet steel. The assembly operations in body production include the welding together of many separate parts of the body and the in stallation of the instrument panel and electrical wiring. Body assembly is not entirely a metal working operation. One department of the body plant is devoted to the preparation of upholstery. The body building process includes cutting and sewing of upholstery for the seats and cushions of the motor vehicle, and prepar ing and installing the fabric headliners and door panels. Production on the Final Assembly Line From the observer’s viewpoint, the most dramatic part of the manufacture of the motor vehicle is on the final assembly line, which is the process of putting together a number of subassemblies and individual parts in sequence with the complete vehicle rolling off the line at the end. The assembly line itself resembles the movement of an escalator except that the line moves forward at floor level rather than upward. Meanwhile, overhead conveyors bring the various subassemblies and parts of the motor vehicle to the final assembly line at the point where the part is needed. In conjunction with these conveyors, overhead wires feed elec tric power to portable motorized tools, such as power screwdrivers and wrenches, which are suspended by spring cables within the worker’s reach. Generally, the assembly of a car starts with the frame which forms the foundation of the car and all other units are attached to it. Auto mobile frames are made of pressed steel with the deepest and strongest section at the center where the greatest stress occurs. Cross mem bers are next added to the frame so that it looks like an X. A few feet farther down the line, forward brackets are attached to the frame and then the front suspension assembly which includes front wheel spindles and springs, shock absorbers, wheel hubs, and bearings. Rear springs and rear shock absorbers are next added, and then the rear axle to which gears, bearings, and brakes have already been attached. Each of these subassemblies is fastened to the rapidly emerging chassis of the car. A complete engine is lowered by crane into position on the chassis as it comes down the line. The steering column (including the gears) and the steering wheel are fastened to the chassis and brake fluid is added. Many of the essentials of the vehicle are in place within approximately half an hour after the first frame units have been placed on the assembly line. The first indication of the color of the com pleted vehicle comes with the addition of wheels, complete with tires, which are now added to the chassis of the car. The radiator and battery are next added and a mechanical device measures proper alinement to receive the body of the car. Padded hooks grasp the body of the car, which is lowered by a crane or “dropped” from overhead, meeting the chassis on the assembly line below. The front-end as sembly—fenders, hood, and grill—and the headlights, bumpers, hubcaps, and floor mats are now added. At the end of the line the head lights are adjusted, wheels are alined, gasoline is pumped into the fuel tank, and another new mofor vehicle is driven off the assembly line under its own power. The finished car is thor JOBS IN THE INDUSTRY oughly inspected before it leaves the factory. As the many chassis move down the assembly line hour after hour, “banks” of materials lo cated in aisles along the line are continually fed by a careful system of scheduling. This process insures a steady supply of parts to feed the final assembly line and reduces the amount of factory space which otherwise would be used for storage. Trucks and passenger cars are usually built on separate assembly lines. There are more model variations in trucks than in passenger cars. Exact information for each vehicle is furnished to stations along the assembly line so that the desired specifications of the customer will be built into it. Subassemblies conforming to these specifications are forwarded to the as 9 sembly line in the proper sequence. Several methods of synchronizing assembly line and subassembly activities are used. For each truck a record is made and copies then forwarded to each station along the assembly line. The record shows by code the items to be included. On the passenger-car assembly line, the sequence of the models to be built may be transmitted to the various stations along the line by either teletype or telautograph. The information on color and on the special equipment desired in each car is obtained from car orders placed by automobile dealers. By this scheduling pro gram, cars of different colors and types follow each other down the assembly line—a dark blue coupe may be followed by a maroon station wagon. Jobs in the Industry Persons interested in working in the auto mobile industry should inquire about the vari ous types of jobs. Every motor vehicle repre sents the combined efforts of thousands of workers in a great number of different occu pations. Some of these workers are employed in technical and professional jobs, such as en gineers, chemists, metallurgists, or draftsmen. They work on problems of research and devel opment of new automobile designs or in testing present models. While these technical person nel are ironing out the kinks of future model cars, purchasing agents are busy buying the steel, rubber, glass, and other materials to be converted into parts for the finished car. The factory production related workers make up more than 80 percent of the employees in the automobile industry. These workers carry out the ideas of the professional and technical per sonnel by transforming the raw materials into the completed car. The largest single group are the assemblers who join the thousands of parts of which a motor vehicle is composed (chart 1). A large portion are employed in metalworking occupations like machine tool operators, tool and die makers, welders, or work in some foundry or forge shop job. Another large group of the factory workers are engaged in assembly and inspection jobs. In spectors are employed at every stage of the as sembly operation, both in plants making automobile parts and in those producing com plete vehicles. EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY 10 T able 2.— E s t im a t e d n u m b e r o f w o r k e r s i n s e le c te d p la n t o c c u p a tio n s i n th e m o to r v e h ic le i n d u s t r y , f o u r t h q u a r t e r 1952 , Occupation and department Number of workers 117,000 Assemblers Forge department: 1,200 Hammermen and upsetters___ 1,600 Heaters___________________ 1,800 Straightening press operators. .. Foundry department: 1,800 Chippers and grinders_______ 3,500 Coremakers. __-------------------2,200 Molders, machine----------------1,100 Patternmakers--------------------26,000 Inspectors and testers----------------Machine tool operators, production: 19,000 Drill press____ _____ _______ 2.300 Gear cutter--------------- --------9.600 Grinder----------------------------10,400 Lathe-------- ----------------------5.100 Milling machine------------------3,000 Screw machine, automatic____ Maintenance department: 1,400 Carpenters------------------------6.300 Electricians-----------------------14,-400 Janitors and sweepers________ 8.100 Mechanics, maintenance--------6.600 Millwrights________________ 3.300 Pipefitters and plumbers_____ Materials control: 6.300 Checkers, receiving and shipping. 5,600 Stock chasers_______________ 3.300 Tool-crib attendants__________ Materials movement: 2,000 Crane operators_____________ 7,500 Craters, packers, boxers, sawyers. 21,000 Material handlers------------------2,800 Truck drivers_______________ 9,000 Truckers, power-------------------11,400 Metal finishers__________________ Paint shop: 3,600 Polishers, lacquer or enamel___ 4.500 Sanders, wet-----------------------7.500 Sprayers---------------------------40.000 Punch press operators----------------Tool and die department: 2,800 Cutter grinders_____________ 2.500 Die tryout men------------------6,000 Machine operators__________ 18.000 Tool and die makers_________ 2,000 Tool and gage grinders_______ Upholstering department: 4,900 Sewing-machine operators------6,700 Trimmers, cushipn and back---2,400 Trimmers, headlining------- .----Welders: 8.500 Welders, arc and gas_________ 15,500 Welders, gun, machine and spot. Source: Estimated primarily from data included in Wage Structure: Motor Vehicles and Parts, 1950, Bulletin No. 1015, U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Still other factory workers are connected with the movement of materials to the right place at the right time so that there is a steady flow of supplies. These workers check mate rials in the shipping and receiving rooms, transport materials to other workers, or handle materials from trucks. In addition to these materials control workers, maintenance men keep the many machines and equipment in good working condition. Table 2 gives the number of workers in some of the more im portant factory occupations in the automobile industry. Finally, there are many administrative and clerical jobs dealing with the problems of qual ity control, personnel and payrolls, sales, and advertising. About 11 percent of the industry's working force are women. They are employed largely in the administrative offices of auto mobile plants and in the less physically demand ing plant occupations, such as sewing-machine operations, in light assembly work, and as auto mobile drivers. The duties and training requirements of some of the important occupations are briefly described below. A more complete discussion of many of these occupations may be found in the Occupational Outlook Handbook.3 The handbook contains information about other industries in which these workers are employed, the job prospects in those industries, and the training and other qualifications required for workers in these occupations. Technical Occupations Cars begin as ideas. Behind many of these ideas are the engineers and designers. Much thought goes into planning and research—plan ning the kind of car to make and searching for ways and means of producing it. For these purposes, the automobile industry employs a large force of technical personnel, including engineers, chemists, metallurgists, and physi cists. The en g in eers, numbering between 10,000 to 15,000, are the largest group of these technical employees. It is the engineer in the automobile industry who has been primarily responsible for the major improvements in today’s automobile. Shatterproof glass, all-steel bodies, high compression motors, automatic gear shifts, rustproof body finishes, and many other new features are products of the en gineering team. Several types of engineers find employment in automobile firms. Heading the list are the automotive, electrical, mechanical, and indus trial engineers. The a u to m o tive en gin eer, gen 3 Occupational Outlook Handbook, U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin No. 998, 1951 edition prepared in cooperation with the Veterans Administration. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. Price $3. TECHNICAL OCCUPATIONS erally considered to be in a branch of mechan ical engineering, designs, develops, or does research work on the automobile body or en gine. He may work at a drawing board, design pilot models of a car to be manufactured several years in the future, or test and analyze a small motor vehicle part such as a starter spring or windshield wiper. The electrical engineer is concerned with such activities and problems as instrumentation and control, power generation and distribution, electronics, test equipment, and electrical apparatus and machinery. He is engaged in the design and development of all types of electrical and electronic machinery and equipment as well as the operation, main tenance, and use of these items. The mechanical engineer and the industrial engineer are pri marily engaged in the production stage in such work as the design of new machinery or the layout of plant equipment. Still other types of engineers, including civil, chemical, safety, and sales, are employed in the industry in a wide variety of tasks. Chemists and metallurgists are employed mainly in the research and development units of the individual motor vehicle companies. Metallurgists and metallurgical engineers are also found in the casting and heat treating de partments. For example, a metallurgist might be employed to supervise the melting opera tions in the precision casting and forging de partments. A chemist may be employed to head the testing and analytical laboratory. Physicists and mathematicians are employed mainly in the research departments where they work with other technical personnel, such as en gineers and metallurgists. According to a sur vey of industrial research laboratories made by the Research and Development Board in 1952,4 nearly 3,000 engineers and scientists work as research personnel in the automobile industry. The industry employs a considerable number of draftsmen who prepare working plans and detailed drawings of automobile parts and as semblies. They work from sketches and speci fications furnished by the engineer or designer. 4 U . S. Departm ent of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics and De partment of Defense, Research and Development Board, Industrial Research and Development — A Preliminary Report, January 1953. 11 There is a wide range of skill in this occupa tion. Some draftsmen do rough copying or routine tracing work, whereas others at higher levels of skill are often required to make calcu lations concerning the strength, quality, and cost of materials, and to use engineering hand books and tables for computations. Draftsmen prepare working plans and detailed drawings automobile parts and assemblies. of Persons contemplating an engineering career should rate well above average in mathematics and science courses in high school. Graduation from a recognized college is the minimum edu cational requirement for engineering or scien tific work. Most engineers and scientists have a college education and the proportion with advanced degrees is increasing. It is also im portant for prospective students to select a properly accredited school because persons trained at such schools generally have the best employment opportunities. Many automobile companies recruit engi neers and other technically trained personnel by sending representatives to colleges and uni versities each year to interview graduating students. Some companies have formal train ing programs in which the professional 12 EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY trainees are rotated through the various oper ating and maintenance divisions to give them a broad picture of automobile manufacturing before assigning them to a particular depart ment. In other companies, the newly hired en gineer or scientist is assigned directly to a specific research, operating, or maintenance unit. It is important to note that many of the top executives in the industry have an engineer ing or scientific background. Usually a person becomes a draftsman by studying at a trade or vocational school and later acquiring practical experience by serving a 3- or 4-year apprenticeship, or by some other type of on-the-job training plus part-time schooling. Plant Occupations Metalworking Occupations After the engineers and draftsmen have planned and designed the new model car, some one must transfer these ideas into the com pleted car. First, the parts must be made. The parts are principally metal and are shaped by a variety of metalforming processes requiring workers in a number of metalworking occupa tions. For example, bodies must be stamped out by huge presses, cylinder blocks must be cast in foundries, axles must be forged in the forge shops, and pistons must be ground in the machine shops. To understand exactly what these metal operations entail, a descrip tion of the duties of some of the workers per forming these operations follows. M ach in in g O ccu p ation s .—One of the largest metalworking occupations in the automobile industry is that of m ach in e tool o p era to r. A machine tool is a power-driven machine which firmly holds both the piece of metal to be cut and a cutting instrument, or “tool,” and brings them together so that the metal is cut, shaved, ground, or drilled. Machine tool operators may be divided into two main classes according to their degree of skill. The skilled operator does widely varying kinds of machining on all types of machine tools. Working from blueprints or layouts, he sets up his machine for each ma chining operation, selects the proper tools and materials, adjusts the feed and speed controls, and measures the finished work to see that it meets specifications. He knows how to sharpen cutting tools when they become dull and he understands the machining qualities of various metals. However, the majority of machine tool oper ators in the automobile industry are much less skilled than the machine tool specialist de scribed above and their work is repetitive rather than varied. A typical job consists mainly of placing rough metal stock into an automatic machine tool, watching the machin ing operation for signs of trouble, and measur ing the finished work with specially prepared gages which simplify measurement. The oper ator may make minor adjustments to keep the machine tool in operation, but usually he must depend upon skilled workers, such as setup men or machine tool specialists, for major adjustments. Machine tool operators, skilled and semi skilled alike, are designated according to the kinds of tools they operate, such as enginelathe operator, turret-lathe operator, drillingmachine operator, grinding-machine operator, and milling-machine operator. A skilled machine tool operator requires from 1 to 3 years of on-the-job training. The less skilled machine tool operators are gener ally trained on the job in not more than 6 months. An important person in automobile produc tion is the tool an d die m a k er who is one of the most skilled plant workers found in this industry. The toolmaker makes the jigs, fix tures, and other accessories that hold the work while it is being machined. He also makes the gages and other measuring devices needed for precision work. Diemakers construct the dies which are used in such metalforming opera tions as forging, stamping, and pressing. The tool and die maker must know how to read blueprints, set up and operate machine tools, 13 PLANT OCCUPATIONS use precision measuring instruments, under shakeout men and sent to the cleaning and fin stand the working properties of common metals ishing department. Sandblasters and tumbler and alloys, and make shop computations. In operators run the various kinds of cleaning addition, he must work to very close tolerances equipment. Chippers and grinders remove ex and do precision handwork. This work re quires rounded and varied machine shop ex perience usually obtained through formal ap prenticeship or its equivalent in other types of on-the-job training. A tool and die appren ticeship ordinarily covers 4 or 5 years, including shop training in the various parts of the job. In addition, during the appenticeship, courses such as shop arithmetic and blueprint reading are usually given in vocational schools. After apprenticeship it is often necessary to work for a number of years as a journeyman in order to qualify for the more difficult tool and die work. Since tool and die making is the most exacting type of machine shop work, per sons planning to enter the trade should have a great deal of mechanical ability and a liking for painstaking work. Foundry Occupations.—Some parts of the automobile must be made in the foundry de partments which make castings for such units as engine blocks by pouring molten metal into a mold and then allowing the metal to harden and take the shape of the mold. The first step in casting is for the pattern maker to make a wood or metal pattern in the shape of the final casting desired. Sandmixers prepare sand for use in molding and coremak ing. Hand molders make the sand mold into which metal is poured. The molds are made by packing and ramming sand around the pat terns. Machine molders operate one of several types of machines which simplify and speed the making of large quantities of identical sand molds. Coremakers shape the bodies of sand, or “cores,” which are placed inside molds in order to form any hollow spaces needed in castings. When the mold is made and the cores (if any) are put inside, the molten metal is poured into the mold. A melter operates a furnace used to melt metal for castings. The actual pouring is customarily done by a pour'er. When the casting cools off, it is taken out of the mold by cess metal and finish castings. Patternmakers, hand molders, hand core makers, and the more difficult types of ma chine-molding jobs are generally learned through an apprenticeship, usually lasting 4 years. The less skilled machine-molding jobs and many of the other foundry jobs may be learned in a few months of on-the-job training. Patternmaking is the first step in the sand casting process. Here a highly skilled patternmaker is constructing a wood pattern in the shape of the part desired. Forging Occupations. — The forging process shapes metal objects which are required to withstand great stress, such as automobile crankshafts and axles. These objects are formed by machines which pound and squeeze heated metal into the desired shapes just as the oldtime blacksmith used to do, but now machine power is substituted for the blacksmith’s arm, and dies take the place of the anvil and ham mer. Jobs in forge shops vary. Many have to do with operating the forging hammers and presses which are usually run by crews of 2 or more and sometimes by as many as 10 or 15 men. 14 EMPLOYM ENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE IND U STR Y For example, a hammerman operates a drophammer which pounds metal into various shapes between closed dies. He places a steel bar between the dies and forges to the required shape by striking the steel with a steam ham mer. The hammerman is assisted by a heater who heats the stock in a furnace to prepare it for forging and then passes the stock to the hammerman. Forge shop workers include many men engaged in cleaning, finishing, heat treating, or inspecting forgings, as well as laborers employed mainly in moving materials. Forging is used to shape metal objects which are required to withstand great stresses, such as automobile crankshafts. For these jobs workers need the strength and endurance required for heavy lifting and for withstanding the noise, heat, and vibration typical of forge shops. The job of hammerman, one of the highest paid plant jobs, is filled by promotion from men already on the crew. A man generally starts as a helper on a hammer crew and by advancement over a period of several years, he may become first a heater and later a hammerman. Other Metalworking Occupations .—The auto mobile industry employs large numbers of workers in other metalworking occupations. Included among these are the punch press oper ators who numbered 40,000 in late 1952. These workers operate and maintain the power-driven presses varying in size from small presses which blank out door handles to the massive presses which form, trim, and press holes in the doors and body panels. Depending on the size of the machine and the material to be processed, an operator may work at his ma chine alone or with the assistance of other workers. Automobile plants also employed about 24,000 of the various types of welders, who may be divided into 2 groups according to the type of equipment used. The more skilled welders, numbering 8,500, operate electric arc and gas welding equipment. In this type of welding, metal parts are joined through the application of heat intense enough to melt the edges to be joined. The skilled welder controls the melting by properly directing the heat and adding filler metal where necessary to com plete the joint. A course in welding methods, usually in public or private vocational schools followed by extensive job experience, has been the common way for skilled arc and gas weld ers to receive their training. Welders doing the simplest repetitive types of arc and gas welding are trained on the job without special instructions in about 6 months. About 15,500 welders are in the less skilled jobs of operating gun and spot welding equip ment. These electrically controlled machines fuse metal parts by bringing them together under heat and pressure. The metal pieces to be joined are pressed between two electrodes through which electric current is passing. The parts being welded offer sufficient resistance to the flow of current to create intense heat which, with the pressure, fuses them together. Usually, the supervisor sets the controls of the machine for the desired electric current and pressure whereas the operator merely feeds and alines the work, starts the machine, and then removes the work when it is finished. Most gun and spot welders learn their work on the job in a relatively short time. PLANT OCCUPATIONS Assembling Occupations The final stage of the mass-production tech nique of automobile manufacturing is putting together parts into units. As these parts are finished or brought in from other plants, they are transported by belts, trucks, or overhead conveyors to different subassembly lines within the factory. Each subassembly line is a unit within itself. For instance, all the parts for the engine go to the line that assembles only engines. This is true for such units as the body, front and rear axles, wheels, and frame. As these units are completed, they are transported to the final assembly line at designated points where they are assembled in their proper se quence into the final car. Assemblers make up the largest occupational group in the automobile industry; they com prise more than 13 percent of the production workers. About 117,000 assemblers were em ployed in the automobile industry in late 1952. Bench assemblers put together small units or subassemblies while working at a bench. They usually work in parts plants or on subassembly Many of the assembly operations are split into specialized jobs. 15 lines of the larger automobile manufacturers. Other assemblers may rivet and screw to gether parts of the chassis as it moves down the final assembly line or they may join the body and chassis together. “Repetitive” is the word that most aptly describes assembly jobs. It is here that division of labor is carried to its extreme degree. Each worker has one or a few operations to perform on a part of the car. He may stand as he joins a fender to the hood of the car, or he may walk beside the car as he places bolts on the frame. But no matter what particular task he per forms, he must do each operation as many as 60 times an hour to keep up with the assembly conveyor which is geared to that speed. Manual dexterity and patience with repeti tive tasks are the two necessary requirements for assembly operations because the worker must be fast on his job and must do the same operation repeatedly. New workers are usually trained for the less skilled jobs in a few days of on-the-job training experience. Workers with machine shop experience are often chosen for the more skilled assembling jobs. Here a wheel and tire merry-go-round rotates slowly as each worker performs a single task. 16 EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY Inspection Occupations Another large and important group of auto mobile workers are the inspectors whose chief duties are to examine completed units and subassemblies or to measure the accuracy of ma chined parts. Nearly 26,000 i?ispectors and testers were employed in automobile plants in late 1952. In parts plants, inspectors check dimensions of parts by using specially designed gages and other measuring instruments which speed and simplify the inspection process. Other inspectors check the correctness of the many assembly operations throughout various subassembly stages and on the final assembly line. A few more specialized inspection jobs are held by skilled inspectors who test raw materials or the operation of parts of completed vehicles under experimental conditions. Most of this testing, however, is done by professional workers such as engineers, chemists, or metal lurgists ; but less skilled workers often assist them in the laboratories and on experimental testing grounds. Engine assembly and inspection line. Several thousand women are employed as sewing machine operators in the upholstery departments of automobile plants. Frequently, assemblers who show special aptitude are promoted to inspectors. However, inexperienced workers may be hired for some of the less skilled inspectors’ jobs and given a brief period of on-the-job training. Finishing Occupations Before a car goes off the assembly line, many finishing operations must be performed. The metal surfaces must be readied for finishing, the exteriors painted, the interiors covered, the seats upholstered, and, finally, the finished product must undergo a thorough inspection. Among those employed in the finishing depart ments are metal finishers, platers, sprayers, polishers, sanders, cutters, sewing-machine operators, and upholsterers. Metal finishers remove surface irregularities of metal parts in preparation for painting. They file and polish rough surface areas to a smooth finish. Platers electroplate automobile bumpers and “hard ware” for ornamentation and protection against corrosion. Sprayers operate spray guns to ap ply paint or other finishes to the metal parts. ADM INISTRATIVE AND OFFICE OCCUPATIONS polish the finished surfaces by hand or by a portable motor-driven buffing wheel. Cutters, sewing-machine operators, and up holsterers combine their skills to provide com fortable and attractive interiors. The c u tte r cuts material to the proper length and width according to a pattern. The sew in g -m a ch in e o p e ra to r , using a power-driven machine, sews together the upholstery sections after they have been cut to size. U p h o lsterers arrange and fasten springs and padding for the seats and backs, and tack the covering material in place. P o lish ers Material Movement and Maintenance Occupations A large number of workers is required in automobile plants to maintain and to repair the great amounts of machinery and equipment, to move materials and supplies, and to perform a variety of other maintenance and service operations. Production of motor vehicles by the assembly line process requires an elaborate system of material movement to feed the assembly lines adequately and to remove finished products. In 1952, about 42,000 workers were employed in moving materials in automobile and auto mobile parts plants. Some workers drive trac tors or trucks, delivering parts or subassem blies to the various stations on the assembly line or moving materials between plants or to and from shipping stations. M a teria l h an dlers load and unload material from trucks or in and out of containers. Other workers, such as ch eck ers , to ol-crib a tte n d a n ts , and sto ck ch as e rs , coordinate the delivery of parts to the proper location on the assembly line; check, 17 receive, and distribute m aterials; and keep records of incoming and outgoing shipments. Some 15,000 workers were employed in mate rials control jobs in late 1952. Among the important maintenance workers in automobile plants are m illw r ig h ts who in stall and maintain mechanical equipment. They dismantle machinery and replace defective parts. One of their important functions is to set up new machinery and equipment. Several thousand electricia n s keep the wiring, motors, switches, and other electrical equipment in good operating condition, and make repairs when equipment breaks down. With a definite trend towards more automatic machinery, in creasing numbers of workers are being used to maintain electronic and hydraulic equip ment. P lu m b ers and p ip e fitte rs lay out, install, and repair piping, valves, pumps, and com pressors. M a ch in ery re p a irm e n diagnose trou ble in various types of machinery. They adjust, repair, and assemble machinery. Other main tenance and service workers found in automo bile plants include c a rp e n te rs , sh eet-m eta l w o rk e rs , cran e o p e ra to rs , and ja n ito r s . Experienced craftsmen, such as millwrights, plumbers, pipefitters, sheet-metal workers, and electricians, who have acquired their skills else where, are sometimes hired directly by auto mobile companies. Most automobile plants conduct some type of apprentice training pro gram to meet the needs of their maintenance shops. The apprenticeship programs usually cover 3 or 4 years, and include, mainly, shop training in various parts of the particular jobs. In addition, classroom instruction in related technical subjects is generally given either in the plant or in local vocational schools. Administrative and Office Occupations The plant workers’ contribution to the mak ing of the automobile has already been noted. But what goes on behind the scenes? Who keeps the records of parts, shipments, per sonnel, and sales? Who determines what and how much to buy? Who keeps production run ning smoothly? More than 150,000 of the in dustry’s workers have administrative, sales, professional, technical, supervisory, and cleri cal jobs. The vital role played by engineers, metallurgists, tool designers, draftsmen, and other professional and technical personnel has already been described. The administrative field, also, provides opportunity for many men and women in interesting and important jobs. For the most part, persons now employed 18 EM PLOYM ENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE IND U STR Y in the administrative positions in the automo bile industry have not been trained specifically for any particular industry. Automobile com panies recruit persons for administrative jobs by sending representatives to colleges and universities to interview graduating students. Many of the higher rated jobs are filled by pro motions from within. Engineers and other specialized personnel are often used for top managerial positions. More and more collegetrained persons, especially those with degrees in business administration, are being trained for administrative jobs in automobile com panies. Many of these people have specialized in a particular administrative field, such as marketing, labor relations or personnel, or ac counting and finance work. Now let’s take a look at some of the administrative positions. At the top of the administrative field are many persons in executive positions who are called upon to make policy decisions for their firms. These executives are continually re quired to decide how many vehicles to produce, what styles to make, which parts the company should produce and which to buy, how best to locate plants and equipment, and how best to coordinate production processes. To properly make such decisions, a large body of specialized personnel is needed. The comptroller is the source for some im portant policy decisions such as those noted above. Because he is the company’s chief ac counting officer, he directs the entire accounting program. The services of many accountants, bookkeepers, and clerks are required to main tain the essential and complicated recordkeep ing system needed by automobile firms. A c co u n ta n ts establish and direct accounting pro cedures and recordkeeping systems. They audit the records kept by bookkeepers and clerks, analyze costs, and do tax accounting. B o ok k eep ers keep complete and systematic sets of records of business transactions. Much of the work is performed on bookkeeping machines, calculators, and adding machines. C lerk s file records, attend to the mail, and make relatively simple calculations on business machines. M a rk et a n a ly sts , eco n o m ists , and s ta tis ti cians collect, analyze, and interpret information for use in production planning and for guiding sales operations. They provide forecasts of market conditions and sales potentials. They study consumer buying habits and forecast consumer acceptance of new styles. The sales department, working under a sales ex ecu tive and in conjunction with a d v e rtisin g p erso n n el , stimulates demand for products of the company. It is the responsibility of the sales department to make all arrangements with the company’s automobile dealers through out the country. The sales department usually has a service section which performs such func tions as the training of dealers’ mechanics. Many of the large automobile companies have sales offices located in all regions of the country. The p u rch a sin g department must line up sources from which raw materials, finished parts, and equipment needed in the production process can be obtained regularly. Specialists in the purchasing department are needed to buy different kinds of materials, machines, and tools. They must be acquainted with the best available sources and trade conditions. They also must be good judges of value and quality and know the capacity of suppliers to meet their firm’s demands. It takes well-trained per sonnel to buy wisely and thus protect the qual ity of the finished product. A legal sta ff advises management as to legal rights and obligations under existing laws. Lawyers represent their companies in court or before semi judicial or administrative agencies of the Government. They also draw up legal documents and do other legal work as required. A few d o cto rs and n u rses also are needed to care for the health of the industry’s workers while on the job. Because manpower is a vital factor in the production process, a well-trained and organ ized in d u stria l rela tio n s sta ff is required. Labor policies are analyzed and recommendations are made to top management. This staff also handles the many problems which arise in the day-to-day administration of union-manage ment agreements. Trained p erso n n el w o rk e rs EARNING S AND WORKING CONDITIONS are needed to plan and assist in the recruiting, training, and rating of employees. They main tain personnel records, classify jobs, engage in employee counseling, and participate in the operation of established health, safety, and re tirement systems. 19 The industry employs thousands of other “white collar” workers to help the specialized workers described above. Included among these are secretaries, stenographers, clerks and typ ists, and business-machine operators. A large proportion of the office workers are women. Earnings and Working Conditions Anyone interested in working in the auto mobile industry would like to know the pay he would earn and what kind of working condi tions he might expect. Of course, the amount of earnings a person would get depends on what type of job he held. Earnings, in general, in the automobile industry are higher than in other manufacturing industries. Current data on earnings for the professional, technical, and administrative jobs are unavailable. Much more information is available for plant workers, however. Earnings In January 1953, the average hourly earn ings for production workers in the automobile industry were $2.08, 35 cen^s more than the all-manufacturing average of $1.73. At that time, production workers in automobile plants earned an average of $85,90 for a workweek of 41.3 hours. This compares with the average earnings in all-manufacturing industries of $70.93 for a workweek of 41 hours. However, pay rates vary considerably in the industry because of the great range in occupa tions and levels of skill.5 This is reflected in a comprehensive survey of wages and related benefits in the automobile manufacturing in dustry undertaken early in 1950 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 3 summarizes some of the information collected in this study. The average straight-time hourly earnings for a number of the important plant occupations are given for several types of motor vehicle and parts plants. From the time this survey was undertaken in February of 1950 until the end of 1952, workers in the automobile plants have received general increases in wages totaling 32 or 33 cents per hour,6 under the terms of the contracts between the major automobile manufacturers and the International Union, United Automobile, Aircraft, and Agricultural Implement Workers of America (CIO), to which union a very large proportion of auto mobile workers belong. Generally, automobile contracts provide over time pay for work in excess of 8 hours per day, or 40 hours per week, and premium pay for work on the night shift, in addition to double time for work on Sundays and holidays, and time and a half for the sixth day of the em ployee’s workweek. Workers in plants of the major motor vehicle companies now have 6 paid holidays throughout the year, and periods of annual vacation which vary according to length of service, generally ranging from 1 to 3 weeks. Other Employee Benefits In addition to these provisions which affect the pay envelope directly, other benefits for the worker are provided for in most contracts. Many workers are covered by group insurance plans which usually include life insurance, ac cidental death and dismemberment benefits, weekly accident and sickness payments in case of temporary disability, hospitalization, and surgical and medical benefits. Often workers’ 6 These hourly increases were the result of two separate contract provisions. Twelve cents of the total increase was based on the 5 Passenger car companies generally pay on a straight-time hourly provision for an annual improvement factor. The remainder was basis. Only 2 such companies were using an incentive pay system in the result of several cost-of-living adjustments made at the end of early 1950. In the parts and truck branches, on the other hand, each quarter. They were based upon changes in the cost of living almost half of the workers were in plants using incentive pay during the previous period as measured by the Consumers’ Price Index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. systems. EM PLOYM ENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE IN D U STR Y 20 Table 3 .— A v e r a g e s t r a ig h t -t im e h o u r ly e a r n in g s 1 f o r se le c te d o c c u p a tio n s i n th e a u to m o b ile i n d u s t r y , b y ty p e o f p l a n t , U n it e d S ta te s , F e b r u a r y - A p r i l 1950 Type of plant Occupation Metalworking occupations Machining occupations: Die tryout men____________ __ _ - _ __ __ Passengercar ___ ___ Lathe operators, crankshaft___________ ___ __ _____ _ ___ _ Milling-machine operators, heavy or special____ ___ ___ __ _ ____ ____ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Milling-machine operators, class C___________________ Punch-press operators, heavy double-crank or toggle ___ ___ ___ _________ Punch-press operators, small crank___________ _________ __________ _ ____ Screw-machine operators, automatic__________ __ _______ ____ ____ _ __ Screw-machine operators, automatic, class A__ _________ ___ __ _________ Screw-machine operators, automatic, class C______ _ _ . _ ____ _ _ _ _ _ _ Toolmakers (excluding leaders)___________ ___ ___ _ __ _ ___ Foundry occupations: Coremakers, light, blow machine and hand__ _____ _ _ Machine molders___________________ _ _ ____ _ _ ____ _ Patternmakers, bench, wood______ _ __ _ _____ __ __ ______ Forging occupations: _ _ _________ Hammermen, steam, medium____ _ ____ _____ __ Heaters for hammermen, steam__ __ _ __ _______ _______ ________ Upsetters-- _ _______________ _____ __ _ __ _ _ _ _ __________ Other metalworking occupations: Welders, arc and gas_____ _ ____ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _______ Welders,gun______ __ _ _ _ _______ _______ _____ ___ _____ Welders, spot ___ ___________________ __ _ Assembly and inspection occupations Assemblers, bench____ _________ ___________ ______________ _ ____ Assemblers, conveyor__ ___ ___ ___ ____ ____ _ _ _ _ _ _ Assemblers, class A __ _ _ ___ _______ _________ _ __ _____ Assemblers, class B _____ _ ____ _ _ ___ _____ _ __ _ ______ Assemblers, class C_____ _ __ _ _ ___ _ ____ ____ _______ Inspectors, final car _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ _ _ _ __ __ ___ Inspectors, machine parts.____ _ _ __ _____________ _______ _______ Inspectors class A _ _ _ _____ Inspectors, class B__________ ______ __ __ ____ _____ __ Inspectors, class C_____________ _ _____ ________ __ ____ _ ______ Finishing occupations Metal finishers, body____ _ __ _______ _____ _______ _ _ _____ ___ _____ __ Polishers, lacquer or enamel._ _ _ ___ ___ _____ _ _ __ . __ Sprayers, lacquer or enamel Sewing-machine operators.___ _ __ _ _________ _____ _______ Material movement and maintenance occupations Checkers, receiving and shipping__ ________________________ _____ ______ _ Crane operators, traveling bridge _ _ _ __ Material handlers _ __ _ _ _ _ ___ Truck drivers, inside power- ___ _ __ ._ ________ Truck drivers, outside__________ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _____ __ _. _ ________ Carpenters, maintenance _ _ _ _ _ __________ Electricians, maintenance_____ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ______ ____ Machine repairmen, maintenance _ __ Mechanics, maintenance._____________ _ __ _____ _______ _____ __ _____ Millwrights, maintenance _ _ __ Millwrights__ ________ _ ____ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ________ Laborers, maintenance, janitors, and sweepers _________ ___ _ ___________ _ ______ Truck Body and body parts $1.98 2.00 2.69 1.61 $1.95 1.60 1.91 1.63 1.61 1.64 1.62 1.65 1.58 1.67 1.70 1.80 1.54 1.83 1.63 1.55 1.97 1.72 1.73 2.15 2.57 1.94 2.08 1.70 1.64 1.62 1.92 1.91 1.85 1.78 2.00 1.81 1.75 1.76 1.59 1.56 1.55 1.60 1.77 1.77 1.48 1.70 1.64 1.59 1.67 1.67 1.72 1.66 1 75 1.50 1.53 1.60 1.48 1.52 1.59 1.80 1.85 1.89 1.80 1.37 $1.91 1.90 1.73 Automotive chassisparts $2.02 1.78 2.24 1.98 1 69 1.59 1.86 1.74 1.74 1.66 ' 1.27 1.84 1.67 1.69 1.92 1.75 1.61 1.69 1.61 1.72 1.48 1.57 1.47 1.84 1 84 1.72 1.94 1.75 1.78 1.39 1.89 1.82 1.80 1.98 1.85 1.63 1.70 $2.00 1.83 2.00 1.69 1.44 1.67 1.32 1.74 1.63 1.48 1.67 1.57 1.40 1.69 1.46 1.33 2.09 1.71 1 68 1.46 1.75 1.97 1.73 1.50 1.46 1.51 1 55 1.35 1.46 1.45 1.64 1.75 1.82 1.72 1.29 1.48 1.55 1 42 1.44 1.53 1 76 1.84 1.83 1 76 1.34 1.46 1.53 1 38 1.45 1.46 1 68 1.77 1.74 1 72 1.29 1Excludes premium pay for overtime and night work. Source: Wage Structure; Motor Vehicles and Parts, 1950, U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 1015, tables 5, 6, 16, 17, and 18. Automotive engineparts 1.46 1.47 1.31 1.43 1.45 1.69 1.76 1.80 1.70 1.25 21 EARNING S AND WORKING CONDITIONS dependents are covered by hospitalization and surgical benefits with the company paying part of the cost. A large proportion of the automobile workers are covered by pension programs, almost all of which are paid for entirely by the employer. A typical contract provides that, upon reach ing the age of 65, employees with 10 years of credited service become eligible to retire on a pension. The amounts of the pensions vary among the individual company contracts. One widely used plan grants a monthly benefit of $1.50 for each year of service up to 30 years, in addition to any payments under the Federal social security program to which the worker may be entitled. Most of the programs in the industry also provide benefits for permanently disabled workers who have fulfilled certain re quirements, often 15 years of service and the attainment of 50 or 55 years of age. Working Conditions The working environment of an automobile employee cannot be described in terms of a typical workplace, in view of the many differ ences in the size, condition, and age of the 1,900 plants in the industry; the nature of operation; the type of equipment; the kind of product; and the stage of fabrication. Working conditions among the various types of occupa tions in the industry also differ. In general, the work surroundings are more favorable than those in most types of metal working facilities. Most of the places in which automobile workers are employed are relatively clean and free from dust, smoke, or fumes. However, some work surroundings, particu larly in the foundry and forge departments, may be hot and the worker may be exposed to dust and fumes. Such working conditions have been greatly improved with adequate ventilation systems. Assembly plants are large and also fairly clean, although conditions may vary somewhat along the assembly line itself. One work sta tion may be considerably noisy, especially where parts of the chassis are riveted, bolted, or welded together with portable power tools. At the end of the line, where finished cars re ceive final inspection, workplaces are more or less removed from the clatter of motorized tools. Although safety conditions vary somewhat among the individual departments or facilities, automobile plants on the whole are compara tively safe places to work. The work injury rate is only about half as high as the average in all-manufacturing industries. In 1951 the average number of disabling injuries was 7.4 for each million employee hours worked in motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts estab lishments. This compares with an average of 15.5 for all-manufacturing industries in that year (chart 2). Labor Organizations New employees in the automobile industry will find that nearly all plant workers and some office workers belong to labor unions. They will discover also that wage rates, hours of Chart 2. Automobile Industry Has Better Than Average Safety Record INJURY-FREQUENCY RATE 'J Rat. 20 r SEVERITY RATE 2/ 1951 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 1 In jury-frequency rate is the average number of disabling work injuries for each million employee hours worked. 2 Severity rate is the average number of days lost as a result of disabling work injuries for each thousand employee hours. 22 EM PLOYM ENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE IND U STR Y work, pensions, vacations, and other matters affecting their jobs, which have been previ ously mentioned, are, for the most part, es tablished through collective bargaining between the unions and the automobile companies. These collective bargaining contracts also con tain such provisions as seniority rules and grievance procedures. The great bulk of the workers in the indus try belong to the International Union, United Automobile, Aircraft, and Agricultural Imple ment Workers of America (CIO). The United Automobile Workers of America (A FL ), Inter national Association of Machinists (AFL), and a few other unions are the bargaining agents with a number of automobile parts plants. Other unions with membership in automobile plants include such craft unions as the Pattern Makers’ League of North America (AFL), the International Molders and Foundry Workers Union of North America (AFL), the Metal Polishers, Buffers, Platers, and Helpers Inter national Union (AFL), and Mechanics Educa tional Society of America (Ind). Trends in Production and Employment By the end of 1952, more than 128 million motor vehicles had rolled off the assembly lines of American automobile companies. In the little more than 50 years of the automobile in dustry’s existence, the Nation has witnessed its extraordinary rise from the manufacture of 4 “horseless carriages” in 1895 to more than 8 million cars and trucks in 1950. Early Growth of the Industry Although the automobile is essentially a product of the 20th century, its development goes back many years. As far back as the 15th century, Leonardo da Vinci, one of the greatest geniuses of his time, foresaw the possibility of a power-driven vehicle. Several hundred years later, in the 18th century, both French and English inventors experimented with steampropelled carriages. The greatest stimulus to the development of the motor vehicle was the appearance of the internal combustion engine around 1880. A period of intensive experimen tation followed, and by 1895 a number of pioneers in this country, including Duryea, Ford, Haynes, and Olds, were developing and perfecting working models. The production of automobiles on a com mercial basis began with the turn of the cen tury. The next 2 decades was a period of remarkably rapid growth. From an employ ment of about 2,500 workers and a production of about 3,700 passenger cars in 1899, the in dustry expanded so that by 1919, 394,000 workers were employed in the industry and 1.9 million cars were produced. The application of mass-production methods to the building of cars was responsible for this tremendous in crease in output. After 1920, the automobile industry entered a new phase. The industry had become an im portant factor in the Nation’s economy, and the car had become an accepted form of trans portation. A continuing succession of technical improvements made the automobile a more reliable and comfortable vehicle for travel, aided by the improved highway system that was spreading throughout the country. The number of motor vehicles in use nearly tripled in the 10-year period from 1920 to 1930. Total automobile registration jumped from 9.2 to over 26.5 million over the decade. As this industry became an important part of our economy, it became sensitive to changes in general business conditions. The sharp fluctuations in output between prosperous and depression periods are shown in chart 3. Motor vehicle production fell from 5.4 million units in 1929 to a low of 1.4 million at the bottom of the depression in 1932. Over the same period, employment showed a drop of about 50 percent, and the average workweek registered a decline of 33 percent. As the country recovered from the depression, automobile production and em ployment swung upward. By 1937, automobile manufacturers produced 4.8 million vehicles, TRENDS IN PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT or more than triple the number produced in 1932. Employment doubled over the same period. Business cycles are not the only causes of sharp fluctuations in the output of the auto mobile industry. Wartime also brings great changes in the industry’s activities. Our entry into World War II created a tremendous de mand for the production of war materiel. Be cause of the automobile industry’s vast amount of metalworking facilities and experience, it was given the task of producing great quanti ties of military items. Automobile production for civilian use was virtually discontinued dur ing World War II and most of the industry’s facilities were converted to the production of such military items as aircraft and parts, com bat vehicles, tanks, guns, and ammunition. 23 Employment increased substantially during World War II, reaching a peak of 827,000 wage and salary workers in the beginning of 1944, but decreased steadily thereafter until the end of the war (chart 4). Employment Since World W ar II Automobile and truck production for civilian use was virtually discontinued during World War II, and was not resumed until the latter half of 1945. Wage and salary worker em ployment in both 1945 and 1946 averaged 660,000,7 about 17 percent less than in 1944. Motor vehicle output in 1946 totaled only 3 mil7 A work stoppage in one of the largest automobile companies in late 1945 and the beginning of 1946 resulted in smaller average em ployment and production in those 2 years. 24 EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY lion units. Although consumer demand for both passenger cars and trucks was very great be cause no new vehicles had been available since 1942, it was not until 1947 that production reached prewar levels. The years 1947-50 saw a steadily rising rate of motor vehicle output, culminating in a record production of 8 million cars and trucks in 1950. The trend of employ ment was also upward during this period, but was characterized by considerable fluctuation. The outbreak of Korean hostilities in June 1950 had a great impact on the economy of the automobile industry. Initially, a considerable demand resulted from scare buying in antic ipation of future shortages such as had oc curred during World War II. Employment was TRENDS IN PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT therefore at very high levels during the last half of 1950 and the first quarter of 1951. In March 1951, employment reached a new high of 935,600 wage and salary workers. Motor vehicle production of nearly 2 million units in the first quarter of 1951 was at an annual rate about equal to the 1950 peak level. The second major effect of the Korean hos tilities on the industry’s activities was a cut back in civilian automobile output. Limitations on output were necessary to insure the supply of critical materials for defense and essential civilian needs. In July 1951, the National Pro duction Authority began to allocate the basic metals, particularly steel, copper, and alumi num, for both military and civilian use under the controlled materials plan. Production ceil ings on cars and trucks were established for each quarter by limiting the consumption of basic materials to be used in automobile manu facture and by fixing quotas on the actual num ber to be assembled. As a result of these curbs, automobile production fell from nearly 2 mil lion units in the second quarter of 1951 to 1.5 million in the third, and to less than 1.4 million in the final quarter of the year. Despite these declines, the total output of 6.8 million vehicles for the year 1951 was above any previous year except 1950. Employment levels reflected the drop in production. From a total of 935,600 wage and salary workers in March 1951, employment fell rapidly and by the end of that year the in dustry had dropped about 150,000 workers from its rolls. In Michigan, where automobile manufacturing is most heavily concentrated, thousands of workers became unemployed. During 1952 the downward employment trend changed. The number of workers in creased steadily again except in July and August when employment dropped heavily be cause of the work stoppage in the steel indus try. With increases in the amount of material allotted for the manufacture of automobiles, motor vehicle output rose from about 1.3 mil lion units in the first quarter of 1952 to more than 1.6 million units in the last quarter of the year. At the end of 1952 the industry was operating at an annual production rate of about 6.5 million cars and trucks. 25 As the year ended, wage and salary worker employment totaled about 920,000, nearly 150,000 more than the number employed at the beginning of 1952, and only about 2 percent less than the peak reached in March 1951. A large part of this increase was a result of the growing number of workers employed in the production of military equipment in automo bile companies’ plants. Defense Activities of Automobile Companies At present, the beginning of 1953, the auto mobile industry accounts for a considerable proportion of the Nation’s total defense produc tion, as it did in World War II. The present mobilization period, however, is in sharp con trast to the industry’s experience in World War II, when civilian motor vehicle production was completely stopped and existing facilities were converted to the manufacture of military equip ment. Under the present defense program, military production has been added to a rela tively high level of civilian output. At the end of 1952, it was estimated that some 110,0008 of the 920,000 employees in the automobile industry were working on defense production. This was an increase of about 750,000 over the number employed at the be ginning of 1952. Some of the automobile workers employed on defense production have jobs in new plants or in Government-owned World War II plants. Among the new plants are a number which had been constructed as part of the industry’s post war expansion program but which had not been tooled-up to produce motor vehicles and parts at the time of the outbreak of Korean hostili ties. As part of the current defense mobiliza tion program, other new plants have been built, some of which are adjacent to plants producing automobiles. In addition to new plants, some of those producing automobiles and parts have been partially converted to the manufacture of military equipment, particu larly aircraft. 8 In addition to these 110,000, about 90,000 other defense workers were employed in plants owned or managed by automobile com panies. These plants, however, did not have as their principal products motor vehicles or motor Vehicle parts, and thus were not considered to be a part of the automobile industry. 26 EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY In the present mobilization period, i s in W orld W a r 11, the automobile industry accounts for a considerable proportion of the Nation’s defense production. Here, medium tanks are being readied for shipment in an automobile company plant. E m p lo y m e n t O u tlo o k What are the job prospects in the industry? What are my chances for getting a job? And what opportunities for advancement can I expect? These are the questions most important in the mind of anyone considering a career in the automobile industry. The answer to these questions can be sum marized in two conclusions: (1) Because of the large size of the industry and its basic importance, the industry will continue to offer thousands of job opportunities for new workers each year to replace those among its workers who die, retire, or who leave the industry to go into other fields of work. These vacancies also provide promotional opportunities. (2) Despite the ever-growing number of automo biles on our streets and highways, no large increases in employment are expected either in the near future or in the long run. These con clusions have been based on a thorough con sideration of the major factors which affect the number of jobs for automobile workers. Some of the factors affecting the number of jobs are reasonably predictable, such as a ris ing population and the need to replace the motor vehicles that are scrapped each year. Other factors are less predictable. What will the level of general business conditions be 10 or 20 years from now? Will other means of transportation significantly affect the demand for automobiles? These and other factors, to gether with an appraisal of the employment prospects for the next few years and over the long run, are discussed below. EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK Prospects for 1953 and 19 54 The employment outlook in the automobile industry in the short run depends upon the size of the demand for new automobiles and re placement parts, the availability of critical materials, and any change in the number of automobile workers employed on defense pro duction. In February 1953, limitations on the use of most critical materials were discontinued and restrictions were lifted on the number of motor vehicles to be manufactured. With supplies of materials generally increasing and materials requirements for most defense-connected pro grams leveling off, it appears likely that 1953 motor vehicle production will not be seriously hindered by material shortages. In general, the demand prospects for new cars and trucks appear favorable for 1953. Inventories of new automobiles at the end of 1952 were not excessive, and industry experts expect the automobile companies to produce and sell some 5.5 million passenger cars and 1.3 million trucks in 1953. This would be near the levels reached during the fourth quarter of 1952 when automobiles were turned out at the annual rate of 5.2 million passenger cars and 1.4 million trucks. The level of production of replacement parts is another factor in determining the employ ment outlook for the automobile industry. Sales of parts are expected to rise somewhat during 1953 and should be at about the record 1951 sales figure. Demand for replacement parts is strongly affected by the growing volume of automobiles and trucks in use. At the end of 1952, 50 percent more passenger cars and 90 percent more trucks were on the Nation’s roads than in 1941. Moreover, many of the vehicles on our roads are relatively old; more than one-quarter of the 53 million vehicles had been in use 10 or more years at the end of 1952. The employment outlook also is affected by the defense activities of automobile firms. Pro duction of military equipment by automobile companies is expected to rise moderately in 1953, reach a peak at the end of the year, and level off in 1954. It is estimated that the num 27 ber of employees working on defense activity in the automobile industry will increase by about 25,000 during 1953. On the whole, therefore, the automobile in dustry is expected to operate in the next 2 years at levels not much different from those at the end of 1952. During 1953, employment is expected to fluctuate around the number em ployed at the end of 1952, somewhere near 900,000 wage and salary workers. The outlook for the years just beyond 1953 is uncertain. It seems probable, however, that, barring any major downturn in general busi ness conditions, the level of automobile produc tion during the next several years should not vary greatly from the rate of output attained at the end of 1952. A recent report of the United States Department of Commerce, “Markets After Defense Expansion,” concludes that if general economic conditions remain fa vorable over the next few years, average do mestic demand for new passenger cars will be around 5 million a year. The level of employment also will be affected by the volume of defense material being pro duced in the industry. Present mobilization plans indicate that defense production will reach its peak at the beginning of 1954 and may ease off thereafter. Defense activity be yond mid-1954 depends directly on the size of congressional appropriations and indirectly upon the state of international affairs. Long-Range Prospects Persons interested in a career in the auto mobile industry should take into consideration the long-run outlook for employment, because this influences not only their chances for get ting and holding a job, but their promotional opportunities. The following appraisal of fu ture employment trends presents a general picture of the outlook for the industry, based on what are believed to be reasonable assump tions about some of the more important factors which will influence its growth. Although ap proximate future production and employment levels are presented for 1975, they should not be considered as applying to that particular year, but as a general indication of what em 28 EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY ployment levels might be in that period. Auto mobile production and employment tend to fluctuate from year to year, in relation to gen eral business conditions. The estimates for 1975, therefore, represent an average of what might be expected during the mid-1970’s based on past trends in automobile usage and other factors affecting employment in the industry. In 1950, employment in the automobile in dustry averaged about 840,000 and exceeded 920,000 in October. Total volume of produc tion of motor vehicles in the 1970’s is expected to be as great as or greater than the very high level of 1950. Over the next 25 years, tech nological changes and the general steady im provement in production efficiency are likely to result in a fairly substantial gain in output per man-hour. This increase will be offset, at least partly, by a probable drop in the length of the average workweek in the industry. Thus, it seems reasonable to expect that employment in 1975 may not differ much from the level of 1950. However, even under these conditions, the automobile industry is likely to remain the largest employer in the manufacturing field. Consequently, this industry would be one of the major sources of job openings because of the large number of workers who will be needed each year to replace those who are leaving the industry because of death, retirement, or tak ing jobs in other industries. It is estimated that death and retirement alone will create between 12,000 to 15,000 openings a year for new workers. These estimates are based upon the following analysis. Table 4 .— I n c r e a s e Year 1920___________________ 1930___________________ 1940___________________ 1950___________________ 19753___________________ in u s e o f p a s s e n g e r c a r s , 1 9 2 0 -7 5 Number of passenger cars in Use1 (thousands) 8,132 22,973 27,372 40,185 60,000 Population 14 years and over2 (millions) 74.0 89.0 101.1 112.3 149.6 Number of persons (over 14) per car 9.1 3.9 3.7 2.8 2.5 1Automobile Manufacturer’s Association, Facts and Figures 1952, p. 21. 2Employment and Economic Status of Older Men and Women, May 1952, U. S. De partment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin No. 1092. 3Estimates for 1975 by Bureau of Labor Statistics. With the automobile accepted as the basic form of passenger transportation, and with trucks carrying an increasing proportion of the freight traffic, demand for motor vehicles will continue to be strong, both to replace cars as they wear out and to increase the number of automobiles and trucks in use. The Nation’s population is expected to show a substantial increase during the next 25 years. This in crease, together with a generally rising level of consumer income, should result in a steady in crease in the total number of automobiles in use. Registration data show that in 1950 ap proximately 40 million passenger cars were in use. This means that there were less than 3 persons, 14 years of age or over, for every car in use. By 1960, the total population 14 years of age and over is expected to increase about 10 percent. Estimates of the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that by 1975, the total popu lation will be more than a third higher than it was in 1950.9 If the ratio of cars to the popula tion over 14 years of age continues at the 1950 rate, a total passenger car registration of a little over 53 million cars will result. In recent years, however, the ratio of cars to population has been steadily rising because of higher aver age incomes, the movement of population to the suburbs, the more equal distribution of consumer incomes, better highways, and high farm incomes. By 1975, the number of persons 14 years of age and over per automobile may be 2.5 compared with 2.8 in 1950 (table 4). This assumption appears to be consistent with the past trends in the ownership of automo biles. (In 1940 there were 3.7 persons per registered automobile and 3.9 in 1930.) The moderate increase in the ratio of cars to popu lation could mean a total passenger car regis tration of about 60,000,000 in 1975. To increase the number of cars in use to 60,000,000, the industry will have to produce, over the 25-year period, an average of about 800,000 more cars a year than are scrapped. The biggest element in demand will be the number of cars needed to replace those being scrapped. Between 1935 and 1941, an average of nearly 8 percent of the total cars in use were scrapped each year. With the recent trend toward longer life expectancy for cars, it might 9 Ejmployment and Economic Status of Older Men and Women, May 1952, U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin No. 1092. EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK 29 not be unreasonable to assume that for 1975 between 7.5 and 8 percent of cars in use would be scrapped each year. This would mean that in 1975 between 4.5 and 5 million passenger cars would be required to replace those dis carded (chart 5). If to this total ih added the number needed for expansion of the automobile population and allowance is made for 200,000 cars for export (about the average in the post war years), the total annual production would amount to less than 6 million passenger cars a year. This rate of production is considerably higher than the highest pre-World War II production of automobiles. In only one prewar year, 1929, did passenger car production ex ceed 5 million. In the post-World War II years, passenger car production was over 5 million in every year from 1949 through 1951, dropping to 4.8 million in 1952, principally because of restrictions on the use of critical materials. The peak production, however, was reached in 1950 when the combination of high postwar demand, plus the scare buying in anticipation of curtailment of automobile production after the Korean hostilities broke out, boosted total total production—about a sixth of the value of production to about 6.6 million cars. Thus, the products in 1950. In 1975, with a 50-percent estimated 1975 car production, which is based increase in the number of motor vehicles since upon a continued expansion of automobile 1950, the volume of replacement parts should usage and reasonably generous assumptions as a roughly proportionate increase. to replacement rates, would be under the 1950 show To sum up, the large increase in replacement peak. parts, together with the fact the trucks would The total truck population may increase make up a higher proportion of total vehicle somewhat more rapidly than that for passenger output in 1975 than they did in 1950, should cars. The total number of trucks in use in result in a total volume of production at least creased about 80 percent between 1940 and equal to the 1950 level, despite the smaller 1950. Although this rate of increase probably number of passenger cars. will not be maintained, the expected popula This discussion of the long-run outlook for tion growth and the trend toward more exten employment in automobile manufacturing has sive use of trucking probably will boost total been presented to give a general picture of the truck registration between 50 and 75 percent future trends for use as a guide to those who by 1975. This increase, together with replace are planning careers. These projections of em ment requirements and exports, should result ployment have been based upon a careful con in an annual truck and bus output of between sideration of the past trends in the industry 1,750,000 and 2,000,000 in 1975. On the basis and what are believed to be reasonable assump of these passenger car and truck estimates, tions as to some of the more important factors total motor vehicle production in 1975 would which will affect the industry's future employ be slightly below the record 1950 output. ment. However, all such forecasts have basic Replacement parts for cars and trucks also limitations, and the longer the forecast period account for a substantial part of the industry's the more serious these limitations are. Much 30 EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY can happen in the next 25 years to change sub stantially the course of the industry's develop ment ; yet some of the more important changes cannot be discerned with sufficient precision to be applied in making the forecast. Possible technological changes may affect both the type of the cars being produced and the labor re quirements in the industry. For example, the widespread introduction of the gas turbine engine, now in an early stage of development, could substantially affect the industry's produc tion. Also, there have been recent trends toward adding more equipment and stepping up the power output of the cars and trucks. On the other hand, the demand for cars could be noticeably modified by such develop ments as increased use of aircraft for personal transportation, including the potential develop ment of the helicopter for use in and about urban areas. A higher standard of living in many of the foreign countries, in which auto mobiles and trucks are as yet a comparatively unimportant means of transportation, could have a substantial effect on the volume of American exports of motor vehicles. Because of these uncertainties of future events, the pro jections of employment should be considered as illustrations of the general levels of employ ment likely to prevail in the automobile indus try in the mid-1970's on the basis of present information on the industry's production and employment trends. OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK PUBLICATIONS 31 Occupational Outlook Publications o f the Bureau o f Labor Statistics Studies of employment trends and opportuni ties in the various occupations and professions are made available by the Occupational Out look Service of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These reports are for use in the vocational guidance of veterans, in assisting defense planners, in counseling young people in schools, and in guiding others considering the choice of an occupation. Schools concerned with voca tional training and employers and trade unions interested in on-the-job training have also found the reports helpful in planning programs in line with prospective employment oppor tunities. Two types of reports are issued, in addition to the Occupational Outlook Handbook: Occu pational outlook bulletins describing the long- run outlook for employment in each occupa tion and giving information on earnings, work ing conditions, and the training required. Special reports issued from, time to time on such subjects as the general employment out look, trends in the various States, and occu pational mobility. These reports are issued as bulletins of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most of them may be purchased from the Superintendent of Docu ments, Washington 25, D. C., at the prices listed with a 25-percent discount on 100 copies or more. Those reports which are listed as free may be obtained directly from the United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington 25, D. C., as long as the supply lasts. Occupational Outlook Handbook Employment Information on Major Occupations for Use in Guidance. Bulletin 998 (1951 Revised Edi tion). $3. Illus. Includes brief reports on more than 400 oc cupations of interest in vocational guidance, including professions; skilled trades; clerical, sales, and service occupations; and the major types of farming. Each report describes the em ployment trends and outlook, the training qualifications required, earnings, and working conditions. Introductory sections summarize the major trends in population and employment and in the broad industrial and occupational groups, as background for an understanding of the individual occupations. The Handbook is designed for use in counsel ing, in classes or units on occupations, in the training of counselors, and as a general refer ence. Its 600 pages are illustrated with 103 photographs and 85 charts. 32 EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY Occupational Outlook Bulletins Plastics Products Industry, Employment Outlook in the Bulletin 929 (1948). Ulus....................................................................................................... Electric Light and Power Occupations, Employment Outlook in Bulletin 944 (1949). Illus....................................................................................................... Railroad Occupations, Employment Outlook in Bulletin 961 (1949). Illus....................................................................................................... Engineers, Employment Outlook for Bulletin 968 (1949). Illus....................................................................................................... Elementary and Secondary School Teachers, Employment Outlook for Bulletin 972 (1949). Illus....................................................................................................... Petroleum Production and Refining, Employment Outlook in Bulletin 994 (1950). Illus.................... '................................................................................. Men’s Tailored Clothing Industry, Employment Outlook in Bulletin 1010 (1951). Illus..................................................................................................... Department Stores, Employment Outlook in Bulletin 1020 (1951). Illus....................................................................................................... Accounting, Employment Outlook in Bulletin 1048 (1952). Illus....................................................................................................... Earth Scientists, Employment Outlook for Bulletin 1050 (1952). Illus..................................................................................................... Merchant Marine, Employment Outlook in the Bulletin 1054 (1952). Illus..................................................................................................... Electronics Manufacturing, Employment Outlook in Bulletin 1072 (1952). Illus....................................................................................................... Federal White Collar Workers—Occupations and Salaries, June 1951 Bulletin 1117 (1952)............................................................................................................... Technicians, Employment Outlook for Bulletin 1131(1953). Illus........................................................................................................ Printing Occupations, Employment Outlook in Bulletin 1126 (1953). Illus. Reprinted from the 1951 Occupational Outlook Handbook ................................................................................................................................. Air Transportation, Employment Outlook in Bulletin 1128 (1953). Illus. Reprinted from the 1951 Occupational Outlook Handbook ................... Mechanics and Repairmen, Employment Outlook for Bulletin 1129 (1953). Illus. Reprinted from the 1951 Occupational Outlook Handbook ................................................................................................................................. Metalworking Occupations, Employment Outlook in Bulletin 1130 (1953). Illus. Reprinted from the 1951 Occupational Outlook Handbook ................................................................. P ric e 20 cents 30 cents 30 cents 55 cents 40 cents 30 cents 25 cents 20 cents 20 cents 30 cents 30 cents 25 cents 15 cents 25 cents 25 cents 20 cents 20 cents 30 cents OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK PUBLICATIONS 33 Occupational Outlook Supplements Price Effect of Defense Program on Employment Outlook in Engineering (Supplement to Bulletin 968, Employment Outlook for Engineers) (1951)........... 15 cents Effect of Defense Program on Employment Situation in Elementary and Secondary School Teaching (Supplement to Bulletin 972, Employment Outlook for Elementary and Secondary School Teachers) (1951) ...................................................................................................... 15 cents Special Reports Factors Affecting Earnings in Chemistry and Chemical Engineering Bulletin 881 (1946)................................................................................................................ Occupational Outlook Information Series (by States) VA Pamphlet 7-2 (1947). (When ordering, specify State or States desired) (each) Employment, Education, and Earnings of American Men of Science Bulletin 1027 (1951)................................................................................................................ Employment and Economic Status of Older Men and Women Bulletin 1092 (May 1952)...................................................................................................... Negroes in the United States: Their Employment and Economic Status Bulletin 1119 (December 1952)........................................................................................... Mobility of Tool and Die Makers, 1940-1951 Bulletin 1120 (1952)................................................................................................................ Occupational Mobility of Scientists Bulletin 1121 (1953)................................................................................................................ Manpower Resources in Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, 1951 Bulletin No. 1132 (1953)....................................................................................................... Employment Opportunities for Student Personnel Workers in Colleges and Universities for Public School Teachers (1951) ........................................................... Elementary and Secondary School Principalships—Chief Advancement Opportunity for Public School Teachers (1951)..................................................................................... Employment Opportunities for Counselors in Secondary and Elementary Schools (1951) ......................................................................................................................... Employment, Education, and Income of Engineers, 1940-1950: A Survey of Engineering Society Members of Full Professional Grade (1953) ....................... Industrial Research and Development: A Preliminary Report (1953) .......................... 10 cents 10 cents 45 cents 30 cents 30 cents 35 cents 35 cents 50 cents Free Free Free Free Free &U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1953—256052