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JOINT COMMITTEE P R IN T
EMPLOYMENT, GROWTH, AND
PRICE LEVELS
INDEX TO HEARINGS
BEFORE THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES
WITH
TABLES OF CONTENTS OF STUDY PAPERS
AND STAFF REPORT
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES
D E CEM BER 30, 1960
.
Printed fo r the use o f the Joint Economic Committee
U.S. GOV E R N M E N T PR IN T IN G O FFICE
62808 0
v w B ^ ^ fe fg T O N
I* ,-
\
: 1961
if
For sale by the sfeferii&eadent of Dociira^nts, U.S. Government Printing Office
W ellington 25,
- Price 30 cents
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304 , 79th Cong.)
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois, Chairman
W R IG H T P A T M A N , Texas, Vice Chairman
SENATE
HOUSE OF R E PR E SEN TA TIVE S
JOHN S P A R K M A N , Alabama
J. W . F U LB R IG H T , Arkansas
JOSEPH C. O’M A H O N E Y , Wyoming
JOHN F. K E N N E D Y , Massachusetts
PRESCOTT BUSH, Connecticut
JOHN M AR SH AL L BU T L E R , Maryland
JACOB K. JAVITS, New York
R IC H AR D BO LLIN G , Missouri
HALE BOGGS, Louisiana
H E N R Y S. REUSS, Wisconsin
F R A N K M . CO FFIN , Maine
THO M AS B. CURTIS, Missouri
CLAR EN CE E. K IL B U R N , New York
W IL L IA M B. W ID N A L L , New Jersey
STU D Y OF EM PLO Y M E N T, GROW TH, AN D PRICE LEVELS
(Pursuant to S. Con. Res. 13, 86th Cong., 1st sess.)
Technical Director
W . L e h m a n , Administrative Officer
W . K n o w l e s , Special Economic Counsel
O tto E c k s t e in ,
Jo h n
Ja m e s
II
LETTERS OF TRANSMITTAL
D ecem ber
30, 1960.
To Members oj the Joint Economic Committee:
For the assistance of members of the Joint Economic Committee
and other users of the materials prepared under the “ Study of Em
ployment, Growth, and Price Levels” there is transmitted herewith
a consolidated index of the 13 volumes of the hearings, and tables of
contents of the study papers and reports.
P a u l H. D o u g l a s ,
,
Chairman Joint Economic Committee.
D ecem ber
Hon.
Paul
,
H.
D o u g la s ,
15, 1960.
,
Chairman Joint Economic Committee
U.S. Senate Washington B.C.
,
,
D e a r S e n a t o r D o u g l a s : Transmitted herewith is a consolidated
index of the “ Hearings on Employment Growth, and Price Levels”
with tables of contents of the study papers and the reports prepared
as part of that same study.
This index is designed to provide users with ready identification of
materials and subjects of discussion by broad economic areas, with
appropriate subdivisions. The tables of contents of the study papers
and reports provide additional information in ^omewhat lesser detail.
Since the papers were prepared on individual subjects no attempt
has been made at consolidation. The list of witnesses, statements,
and exhibits of each of the hearings is included for those who wish a
ready reference for number and kinds of witnesses included in a
particular hearing.
The index has been prepared by Mrs. Viola Ure of the committee
staff. Miss Mona Salyer, from the Vassar-Wellesley intern program,
assisted with parts 1 and 2.
J o h n W. L e h m a n ,
Clerk and Acting Executive Director.
m
FOREWORD
From March 20, 1959, to January 1960, the Joint Economic Com
mittee held 10 sets of hearings in connection with its “ Study on
Employment, Growth, and Price Levels.” The printed testimony
covers 3,486 pages published in 13 volumes.
A consolidated index of these hearings has been prepared to assist
members of the Joint Economic Committee and others by making
more readily available the valuable materials and views submitted
by the witnesses on the many aspects of this complex subject.
In addition to the hearings, there were 23 study papers published
in 16 committee prints, a staff report, and a committee report (S. Rept.
1043, 86th Cong., 2d sess.). While it has not been possible at this
time to prepare a similar index for the study papers and reports, there
are included with the index of hearings in this committee print the
quite detailed tables of contents of the various papers and reports.
The materials are arranged as follows:
1. Consolidated index of the hearings.
2. List of witnesses, statements, and exhibits of the hearings,
parts and subparts 1 through 10.
3. Tables of contents of study papers 1 through 23.
4. Table of contents of the staff report.
5. Table of contents of the committee report.
CONTENTS
Section:
Consolidated index of hearings_________________________ ____________
List of witnesses, statements, and exhibits, hearings, parts 1 through
10_______________________________________________________________
Index to study papers Nos. 1 through 23___________________________
Index to staff report____________________ ____ ______________________
Index to committee report (S. Rept. 1043)_________________________
VII
Pago
1
33
53
81
93
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Page
Abramovitz, Moses, statement of, on long swings in U.S. growth______411-466
Accelerator-multiplier models, formal attributes o f_____________________
731
A FL -C IO :
Areas of substantial labor surplus (table)___________________________
3105
Average family personal income (table)_____________________________ 3131
How family income was shared (table)______________________________ 3132
Operating rates as percent of capacity (table)_______________________ 3108
526
Policies to stimulate economic grow th .-____________________________
Statement of, on reconciling and obtaining economic goals______ 3089-3143
Statement of Peter Henle________________________________________ 511-526
The slowdown in economic growth (table)__________________________
3094
Wage and salary jobs (table)_______________________________________
3104
Agriculture:
(See also American Farm Bureau Federation, Government programs,
Subsidies.)
Effects of farm program on labor force___________________________ 569, 579
Integration in_________________________________________________ 3173-3174
Policies for________ ________________________ 63-64, 90, 1020-1022, 1059
Productivity in__________________________________________ 172, 317, 357, 358
Research and development in, government expenditures for________
2787
American Bankers Association:
Farm programs out of control (chart)____________________________ _
3072
How spending programs grow (chart)_______________________________ 3062
Inflation in construction costs (chart)______________________________
3075
Our inflationary Federal budget (chart)_____________________________ 3064
Statement of, on growth without inflation______________________ 3055-3080
The mounting short-term debt (chart)______________________________ 3066
American Can C o______________________________________________________
2027
American Farm Bureau Federation:
Extract from Farm Bureau's 1959 policies on monetary and tax
matters_____________________________________________________ 3086-3087
Statement of__________________________________________________ 3081-3087
Anderson, Hon. Robert B.:
(See also Treasury.)
Statement of, on debt management operations_________________ 1087-1230
Anderson, Theodore A., statement of, on effects of monopolistic and quasimonopolistic practices_______________________________________ 2154—2169
Antitrust:
And foreign trade_____________________________________ 987-988, 2100-2101
At the State level______________________________________________ 2127-2132
Changes in________________________________ ________________________
2089
Coverage, exemptions from_________ _______________ 2036-2088, 2148-2154
Criteria used in selection of cases___________________________________
2031
Division____________________ __________________________________ 2013, 2018
Effectiveness of, in two-party negotiated contracts_________________
2121
To achievement of national goals______________________________
2116
Interplay of, and trademark protection concepts in the import
field_________________________________________________________ 2022-2026
Legal versus economic analysis in____ ____________________________
2116
Need for increased funds for___________________________________ 2122-2123
Policy________________________________ 62-63, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2019, 2963
Union_________________________________ 2007, 2010, 2034, 2629, 2639-2650
Assets, U.S., abroad, and foreign, in the United States (chart)___________
969
Automatic stabilizers. (See Business cycles.)
Automation. (See Technology.)
Automobile industry. (See Industry.)
2
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Balance of payments (see also Gold, Exports, Imports, Trade):
Page
And income movements__________________________________________ 984-986As bargaining device for redistribution of aid_______________________
980
945-950, 3342-3344, 3372-3373
Deficit in________________ ________ _
Developing and maintaining balance in international payments. _ 3384-3385
“ Dollar shortage’ ' in Europe_____________________ _________________
1025
Favorable effects of net dollar outflow____________________________ 942-943
Gold and U.S. dollar settlements (chart)____________________________
967
Gold reserves and liquid dollar holdings of foreign countries and in
ternational institutions (chart)___________________________________
942
International position of the U.S. dollar, and inflation_______________ 3059
Monetary gold and dollar holdings, 1949-59 (table)_________________
2917
973
Need to shift resources rather than further restrictions______________
Of the United States, 1952-59 (table)________ ______________________ 2915
939
Of the United States, by classification, in 1958c(chart)______________
Of the United States, 1949-59 (chart)______________________________
2926
Of the United States, 1946-58 (chart)_______________________________
941
Present prospects for improvement in _______________ _____________ 943-944
Remaining problems_____________________________________________ 944-945
Reprint of Edward M. Bernstein on international position of U.S.
dollar______ ___________________________________________________ 964-971
Reprint of Randall Hinshaw on shift in United States____________ 959-964
Statement of Robert E. Baldwin_________________________________ 972-974
Statement of Charles P. Kindleberger____________________________ 950-958
Statement of Walther Lederer____________________________________ 933-945
Statement of Wilson E. Schmidt_________________________________ 945-950
Types and size of foreign transactions____________________________ 940-942
U.S. assets abroad and foreign assets in the United States (chart)____
969
United States, on current account and net exports of U.S. capital,
1949-59 (table)__________________________________________________
2916
Baldwin, Robert E., statement of, on balance of payments____________ 972-974
Ball, George W., statement of, on European Common Market________ 991-1017
Bankers Trust Co., as dealer in Government securities_________________ 1823,
1830, 1834,' 1840, 1845, 1848, 1861, 1866, 1874-1875, 1880-1881,
1887, 1888, 1897, 1900, 1903-1904, 1912, 1922, 1927, 1931, 1935,
193,9-1941.
Banking Act, of 1933, 1935__ __________________________________________
1473
National Banking A ct______________________________________________
3032
(See also part 10 of the hearings.)
Bartow Leeds & Co., as dealer in Government securities_________________ 1823,
1830, 1834, 1840, 1845, 1848, 1861, 1867, 1875, 1881, 1888, 1897,
1900, 1904-1905, 1912-1913, 1922, 1927, 1931, 1935-1936, 19411943, 1973-1974.
Baumol, William J., statement of, on reconciling and obtaining economic
goals_____________________________________________________________ 2792-2818
Beck, Paul V., letters and enclosures of, to chairman________________ 3460-3471
904
Berliner, Joseph, book by, “ Soviet Economic Aid” (reference t o )________
Bernstein, Edward M., reprint on “ International Position of the U.S.
Dollar” ____________________________________________________________ 964-971
Bethlehem Steel________________________________________________________
2101
Beveridge report______________ _________________________________________
726
Bicks, Robert A., statement of, on effects of monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic practices_______________________________________________ 2018-2089
Booms. (See Business cycles.)
Borrowing:
By corporations_______________________________________________ 2487-2489
By member banks__________ _______________________________________
1640
Extent of [lending], lack of data____________________________________
1715
Bowery Savings Bank, reaction of, to changes in monetary and debt man
agement policies_________________________________________________ 1410-1450
Briggs, Schaedle & Co., Inc., as dealer in Government securities_________ 1823,
1830-1831, 1834, 1840, 1845, 1849-1850, 1861, 1867, 1875, 1881,
1888, 1897, 1900, 1905, 1913, 1922, 1927, 1932, 1936, 1943-1944.
Brown, Murray F., statement of, on dealings of C. F. Childs & Co., in
Government securities____________________________________________ 1577-1621
Budd, Edward C., statement of, on economic significance of collective bar
gaining__________________________________________________________ 2616-2627
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
6
Budget (Federal):
Pas*
(See also Debt management; Debt, national; Government; Fiscal
policy; Taxes; and part 10 of the hearings.)
And national prosperity_________________________________ 104, 112, 201-204
Balancing______________________ 221-222, 1455, 1627, 3063, 3110, 3154-3155
Classification of expenditures_______________________________________
51
Deficit, and bond prices__________________________________ 1588, 1627-1628
Emphasis on “ tight” budget rather than “ tight” money____________
3006
How spending programs grow (chart)_______________________________ 3062
In World War I I ________________________________________________ 138, 152
Mammoth size of, inflationary_________________________________ 3060-3061
Needed increases in______________________________________________ 125-132
Our inflationary Federal budget (chart)_____________________________ 3064
Purpose o f________________________________________________________ 99-102
Sources of income__________________________________________________
201
Spending___________________________________________________________ 1147
Surplus__________________________________________________ 1092, 1455, 1627
Where cuts are needed most________________________________________ 3063
Bulwinkle Act, exempting railroads from antitrust laws__________________ 2121
Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Reports o f_________________________________________ 330, 355, 364-365, 373
Statement of Ewan Clague_______________________________________ 467-526
Business (see also Corporations, Industry):
Absentee ownership versus local ownership____________ 781-782, 1438-1440
Chemicals and monopoly__________________________ 2002, 2005, 2012, 2018
Construction industries_____________________________________________ 2003
^Effectiveness of entry by already established firms______________ 1981-1999
Financing expansion___________________________________________ 3204-3209
General Electric____________________________________________________ 2005
General M otors_______________________________________________ 2005, 2011
Luxurious expenditures b y _________________________________________
2511
Professional groups_________________________________________________ 2003
Service trades______________________________________________________ 2003
Size of, and concentration of power_________________ 1996-1998, 2005, 2011
Small, effect of high interest and tight money on _______________ 3366^-3367
Business cycles:
And built-in stabilizers____________________________________________ 66-67,
2484, 2764, 2865-2869, 2879, 2977-2978, 2985
And interest rates_______________________________________ 2986, 3251-^3254
And labor_______________________________________________________ 556-557
And profits on securities_______________________________________ 1133, 1652
And psychological variables____________ 2452, 2868, 2876, 2879, 2888-2889
And the Federal budget_______________________________________ 3063-3065
Boom, 1955-57________________________________________________ 1500, 2977
Cause of decline in prices of securities______________________________
1669
Depression___ 427-428, 459-460, 386-387, 617, 694, 1473, 2219, 2760, 3058
Econometric Institute, model o f____________________________________
2451
Future needs in stabilization policy_________________________________ 2868
Impact of fiscal policy of all Government bodies combined in business
fluctuations quarterly 1947-58 (table)________________________ 2869-2870
Lessons of the 1958 recession (A F L -C IO )______________________ 3097-3099
Recession________________________________ 145-147, 474-476, 516, 519, 524
1655, 2448, 2483, 2957, 2977, 3097-3099, 3364-3380
Recurrence of, symptomatic of growth disequilibrium_______________ 2384
Stabilization of inventories_________________________________________
2879
Swing in percents of full-employment GNP (chart)_________________
2867
California Packing Corp________________________________________________
2028
Campbell Soup Co______________________________________________________ 2029
Capital:
Development, in underdeveloped areas_____________________________
1054
Exports, rule o f_______________________________________________ 1064-1065
For new entrants___________________________ ___________________2139-2147
Formation___________ 237-239, 250-251, 1003, 1090, 2385, 2388-2389, 3057
Funds:
Available from savings sources 1947-58________________________
1356
Mortgages and securities__________________________________ 1361-1362
4
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
C apit al— C on tinu ed
Funds— Continued
Net uses:
Page
Corporate pension funds___________________________________ 1368
Life insurance companies_____________________________ 1369-1370
Mutual savings banks_______________________________ _ 1366-1367
Uses of:
In corporate financing________________________________ 1356-1360
In Government financing__________________________________
1363
In real estate mortgage market 1947-58___________________
1356
Goods, exports o f_______________________________________________ 972, 2926
Investment:
3165
Internal financing for__________________________________________
Small farms___________________________________________________
2722
Taxation of____________________________________________________ 2460
Marginal efficiency of______________________________________ 772-773, 2008
Misallocation of, by inflation___________________________________ 3369-3370
Movements, short-run, and exchange rates__________________________
983
Of commercial banks_______________________________________ 877-878, 1459
Rate of return on__________________________________________________
361
Requirements______________________________________________ 57, 65-66, 212
Tangible and intangible_________________________________ 308-312, 331, 364
U.S., increased movement of, to Western Europe and Common Market
countries-_______________________________________________________
1022
U.S. private, outflow of, and U.S. Government transfers abroad
(chart)___________________________________________________________
968
Carlson, Reynold E., statement o f__________________________________ 1052, 1057
Celler Anti-Merger A ct_________________________________________________
2125
Chamber of Commerce of the United States statement of___________ 3145-3156
Chamberlain, Neil W., statement of, on “ Structural Unemployment:
Extent, Causes, Remedies” ______________________________________ 2703-2707
Chemical Bank New York Trust Co.:
As dealer in Government securities____________________________ 1823-1824,
1831, 1834-1835, 1841, 1845, 1850, 1861-1862, 1867, 1875, 1882,
1888, 1897; 1900, 1905-1906, 1913, 1922, 1927, 1932, 1936, 1944
Statement of Alfred H. Hauser, Investment Division________________ 1622
Chemical Corn Exchange Bank. (See Chemical Bank New York Trust
Co.)
Childs, C. F., & Co.:
As dealer in Government securities_________________________________ 1824,
1831, 1835, 1841, 1845, 1850, 1862, 1867-1868, 1875-1876, 1882,
1888, 1897-1898, 1900, 1906, 1913, 1922-1923, 1928, 1932, 1936,
1945.
Statement of Murray F. Brown, executive vice president__________
1577
Childs, Joseph, statement of, on labor mobility and reemployment____ 587-595
Christ, Carl F., statement of, on economic analysis and econometric
models___________________________________________________________ 2483-2485
Clague, Ewan, statement of, on employment and unemployment______ 467-511
Clark, Colin C., statement of, on econometric predictions___________ 2448-2461
Clayton A ct________________ 2011, 2027, 2089, 2120, 2121, 2123, 2133, 2149-2154
Collective bargaining:
Automatic cost-of-living and productivity adjustments contracts,
impact o f____________________________________________________ 2550-2553
Characteristics o f______________________________________________ 3111-3114
Economic significance o f______________________________________ 2543-2545,
2548-2549, 3115-3117, 3226-3227
Impact o f :
On distribution of income______________________ 2538-2539, 3117-3118
On technological change___________________________________ 3120-3121
On wage level__________________________________ 2536-2538,3117-3118
On wage structure_____________________________ 2539-2541, 2556-2582
Implications for U.S. international trade_______________________ 2567-2572
Nonwage, impact of, on economic growth______________________ 2583-2628
Number of workers covered b y _____________________________________
3114
Proposals to prohibit industrywide bargaining or to fragment national
unions___ ______ ______________________ 2335-2367, 2565, 2964, 2968-2970
Public policy for___________________________________ 2542-2543, 3121-3126
“ Wages and Income Distribution,” by Edward C. Budd________ 2516-2527
Commerce, Department of, national income estimates__________________
239
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
5
Commercial banks:
Pas©
Capital requirements o f__________________________________________ 877-878
Loans, control o f_____________________________ 2879, 2882-2883, 2892-2897
Methods used in restricting commercial bank subscriptions to cash
offerings of Treasury bonds (table)_______________________________
3309
Profits of_________________________________________________ 678. 1132-1133,
1136, 1143-1144, 1183, 1237-1241, 1254-1255, 1601-1602, 1651
Questions concerning member banks of the Federal Reserve Sys
tem_________________________________________________________ 3421-343 3
Committee for Economic Development: Statement of, on reconciling and
obtaining economic goals_________________________________________ 3157-3162
Common Market:
And comparative-advantage argument______________________________ 1018
And percentage of foreign trade to GN P,_______________________ 1040-1045
And restrictionist policy_______________________________________ 1045-1048
Creation of, and the Nordic Common Market___________ 894-895, 900-901
Divisible qualities o f_____________________________________________ 1011-13
Extent of trade disadvantage__________________________________ 1009-1010
Institutions o f__________________________________________________ 994, 1009
Need for U.S. initiative____________________________________________
1013
Political content o f______________________________________________ _ 1008
Repercussions of, on the U.S. economy_________________________ 1009, 2947
Statement of:
George W. Ball on________________________________________ 1007-1013
Emile Despres on_________________________________________ 1030-1037
Tibor Scitovsky on ________________________________________ 1048-1051
U.S. investment in ________________________________________ 946, 1010-1011
Competition:
And free markets, spur to economic growth____________________ 1018, 1091
And public policy__________________________________________________
1979
And structural flexibility___________________________________________
61
As a basic economic principle____________________________________ 25, 1091
Effective, lack o f___________________________________________________
30
Employment and income under____________________________________
2121
Foreign_________________________________ 56, 261-262, 573, 575-576, 893,
946, 951-952, 972, 977, 981, 1024, 2568-2574, 2963, 2965-2967
Imperfect_________________________________________________: ___ 1100, 2007
In chemicals_______________________________________________________
2002
In government securities________________________ 69, 1380-1381, 1753-1757
Legal enforcement o f____________________________________________ 62, 2566
Perfect_____________________________________________ 2262-2264, 2304-2305
“ Socially useful,” __________________________________________________
2016
Compo (shoe machinery)_______________________________________________
2027
Congress, “ sense of” (resolution) __ 1139-1143, 1165-1167, 1241-1245, 1272-1276,
1287-1294, 1313, 1320, 1328-1330, 1479, 1612-1620, 2336-2337
Conklin, George T., Jr., statement of, on the Government’s management
of its monetary, fiscal, and debt management operations__________ 1335-1407
Consumer Price Index:
And rising prices in nonunionized sectors___________________________
14
As indicator of inflation_______________________ 59, 84-85, 206, 213, 1092,
1308-1309, 1382-1383, 1635; 1656-1657, 2224, 2760, 2960, 3258
Components o f_____________________________________________ 391, 393, 496
For services___________________________________________________ 2655-2661
Rise in the Consumer Price Index in 16 industrial countries in Europe
and North America 1948-1953 and 1953-1957 (table)_____________ 2545
Consumption:
And capital formation______________________________________________
1090
And investment in the private sector_______________________________
3108
Changes in consumer tastes___--------------------------------- 2232-2233, 3163-3165
Deficiency in___________________________________ 115-117, 154-155, 474-475
Equilibrium________________________________________________________
96
Expenditures, 1839-1959_________________________________________ 237-238
Of goods in domestic market_______________________________________
375
Propensity to consume_____________________________________________
772
Public and private___________________________________________ 114, 159-160
Continental Can C o____________________________________________________
2027
D
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Continental Illinois National Bank & Trust Co. of Chicago, as dealer Pas®
in Government securities______ 1824, 1831, 1835, 1841, 1845, 1851, 1862,
1868, 1876, 1882, 1888-1889, 1898, 1901, 1906-1907, 1913-1914,
1923, 1928, 1932, 1936, 1945-1947, 1974-1976.
Cooperative League of the United States of America, statement of__ 3163-3180
Cooperatives:
Agricultural, and exemptions from antitrust coverage___________ 2081-2088
And mutual business, a corrective__________________________________
3166
Credit unions__________________________________________________ 3176-3177
Farm credit systems________________________________________________ 3174
Group health plans_________________________________________________ 3171
Housing_____________________________________________________ _ 3166-3167
Markets____________________________________________________________ 3167
Mutual insurance companies________________________________________ 3177
Mutual savings banks, association of_________________________
3217-3223
Rural electric________________________________________ __________3168-3170
Corporations (see also Business, Industry):
Absentee ownership, effect on local demand for money and credit- 781-782,
1438-1440
Amounts borrowed by, compared with Federal, State, and local
governments________________________________________________ 1095-1098
Divestment of assets of_______________________________________ _ 2105-2107
Financing o f_______________________________________________ 223-224, 3165
Ownership and control of, separation of_____________________________
2749
Ownership of_______________________________________________________
217
3208
Net corporate debt (chart)_________________________________________
Profits of, increase in, in 1960_______________________________________ 2454
Council of Economic Advisers__________________________ 80-81, 86, 151, 545, 875
Council of Foreign Relations__________________________________________
902
Countercyclical policies. (See Business Cycles.)
Counterpart funds____________________________________________________ 906-917
Credit:
And money markets, institutional frictions in_____________________ 847-887
Bank, increasing______________________________ 1455, 1457, 1459, 1482, 2509
Consumer___________________ 27, 87, 114, 228, 1490, 2368-2370, 2787,
2790-2791, 2976-2987, 3036, 3163, 3175-3177, 3227-3229, 3230
Consumer debt analysis (table)_____________________________________ 3230
Controls______________________________________________ 636-637, 3068-3071
Net corporate debt (chart)_________________________________________
3208
Policy, of the Federal Reserve___________________ 37, 3068-3069, 3222-3223
Restraint____________________________________________ 8, 69, 102, 3377-3378
Credit unions, as stabilizing influences___________________________________ 3177
Cultural conflict________________________________________________ 4, 26, 152, 160
Currency (see also Money):
Devaluation of, in Korea___________________________________________
921
Profiteering in, in Laos_____________________________________________
921
Cycles (see also Business Cycles) in behavior of money________________ 692^693
Dealers, security:
Answers to questions submitted to_____________________________ 1821-1957
1508
Bank dealers_______________________________________________________
Bankers Trust C o_____________________________________________ 1823-1941
Bartow Leeds & C o____________________________________________ 1823-1974
Bidding b y ________________________________________________________
1537
Briggs, Schaedle & Co., Inc____________________________________ 1823-1944
Chemical Bank New York Trust C o______________________ 1622, 1823-1944
Childs, C. F., & C o_________________________________ 1577-1621, 1824-1945
Continental Illinois National Bank & Trust Co. of Chicago_____ 1824-1976
Devine, C. j., & Co______________________________________ 1824-1937, 1948
Discount Corp. of New York_____________________________ 1659-1718, 1825
Effectiveness of, in serving needs of banking system____________ 3396-3398
Financial statements of, publishing_____________________________ 1586, 1587
First Boston Corp_____________________________________________ 1826-1951
First National Bank of Chicago_________________ ______________ 1826-1952
Functions and practices o f_______________________________ 1535, 1823-1874
Growth o f___________ _________________________________________ 1659,1660
Lanston, Aubrey G., & Co., In c____________________ 1827-1953, 1965-1973
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
7
Dealers, security— Continued
Page
“ Leaks” t o ________________________________________________________
1539
Margin requirements of, professional, nonprofessional_____ 1559, 1560,1624
Meetings with, by New York Federal Reserve Bank___________ 1543-1545
Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. of New York_____________________ 1827-1953
New York Hanseatic Corp_____________________________________ 1828,1954
Nonbank dealers___________________________________________________ 1508
Pollock, Wm. E. & Co., Inc____________________________________ 1828-1954
Quincey, Charles E., & Co_______________________________ 1643, 1828-1965
Rates of turnover o f_____________________________________________ 676-679
Regulation o f__________________________________________________ 1568, 1571
Repurchase agreements with___________________________________ 1553, 3294
Requirements o f___________________________________________________
1512
Rich, D. W., & Co., Inc__________________________________ 1829-1939, 1956
Salomon Bros. & Hutzler_____________________ 1558-1576, 1830-1957, 1974
Standards for____________________________________________ 1509, 1592, 1593
Supplementary statements of five______________________________ 1959-1976
Debt management (see all of pts. 6A, 6B, 6C, pp. 1087-1976, and pt. 10, pp.
3241-3486):
Advisory committees, Treasury Department, hearings on June 5, 7,
1956 (excerpt from )_________________________________________ 1221-1230
As social security for investors_____________________________________
2791
Criteria for____________________________________________________ 1246, 1298
“ Debt Management, 1959" by Alvin H. Hansen____________________
761
Theory and practice o f_________________________________________ 1721-1729
To attain economic objectives_________________________________ 2766-2768,
2999, 3023-3026, 3051, 3066, 3067, 3155, 3182
Debt, national:
Amount borrowed by Federal Government compared with borrowings
by State and local governments and corporations_____________ 1095-1098
And general stabilization policies___________________________________
1092
And inflation______________________________________________________
1384
And tax reduction__________________________________________________ 1145
Distribution o f________________________________________________ 1632, 1633
Interest payment on _________________________________________ 227, 267, 685
Impact on economy of adding t o ___________________________________
763
Lengthening the_____ ______________________________ 3261, 3268-3270, 3339
Marketing the_________________ _______________________________ 1246,1247
Maturity o f______________________ 1095, 1098, 1181, 1182, 1298, 1372, 2767
Prior to 1917______________________________________________________
1660
Reducing the, of another country, through use of local currency or
counterpart funds________________________________________________
916
Retiring the_______________________________________________________
2507
Shortening of, increases velocity of circulation___________________ 684, 685
The mounting short-term debt (chart)________ _____________________ 3066
Total gross Federal debt, selected years 1929-58____________________
1098
Turnover o f________ _______________________________________________ 1569
Debt, total gross, selected years, 1929-58_______________________________
1098
Decisions, economic:
Aggregate demand and aggregate supply______________771-775, 794-797
By whom?_______________________________________________________ 167, 168
Free market___________ _______________________________ 769, 897, 898, 1093
Historical setting and clash of ideas_________________________ 769, 793, 794
Necessity for new set of analytical tools__________________________ 770-792
“ Old ideas die hard” _____________________________________________ 807-810
Role of:
Growth____________________________________________ 776-780, 804-807
Money_________________________________________________ 775, 797-801
Prices_______________________________ ___________________ 775, 801-804
Defense:
And the labor force______________________________________________ 569, 579
Contracts, and competition.________________________ 1978, 2005, 2006, 2121
Expenditures for___________________________ _________________ 51, 128, 152,
202, 203, 214, 259, 579, 890, 920, 921, 947, 951, 1374, 1589, 1590
Reallocation of costs of NATO defense_____________________________
1024
Relocation of industry, civilian shelters, and lag in rocketry_________ 2762
8
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Deficit:
Page
A form of subsidy__________________________________________________
26
Alternative corrective measures__________________________________ 970, 971
And bond prices_________________________________________ 1588, 1627, 1628
35
Cash______________________________________________________________ _
During World War I I ____________________________________________ 161-162
Economic (chart)___________________________________________________
109
Federal________________________________________________ 19, 26, 78, 83, 203
In balance of payments_________ 934, 939, 945-950, 3342-3344, 3372, 3373
Means of reducing unemployment___ _____________________________ 28, 215
New money needed because o f_ _ _______________________________ 1136, 1137
Not necessarily inflationary____________________________________ 2393, 2903
Size of, concern over, by foreign banks_____________________________
1453
deLaittre, John, statement of National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks________________________________________________________________
3217
Demand:
Aggregate____________________ , ________________________ 771-775, 794-797
Composition o f ________________________________ ____ 2171, 2188, 2195-2199
Curves________________________________________________________ 2206, 2213
Deficiency o f___________________________________________________ 26, 60, 78
Excess___________ ________________________________________ 880, 2188-2191
For American foodstuffs__________________________________________ 387, 973
For loanable funds______________________________________________ _ 857-860
For money__________________________________________________ 773, 781-782
In the short run__________________________________________________1
4
Public, for goods and services_____________________________________ 96, 109
Satiated?_______ _______________________________________________ 2373-2375
Deposits:
Cash balances___________________________________________________ 610, 630
Demand, and interest__________________________________________ 3029, 3030
Demand, and long-term investment_________________________________ 1401
Depositors, and the*public interest__________________________________
1410
Time__________________________________ ___________ 632, 848-852, 876, 3030
Treasury, in banks________________ 1188, 1190-1206, 3317, 3318, 3325-3332
Turnover___________________________________________________ 676, 691, 692
F D IC _______________________________________ 2941, 3031, 3032, 3049, 3052
Depression. (See Business Cycles.)
Despres, Emile, statement of, on significance of European Common Market
to American economy___ _____ ___________________________________ 1018-1037
Development Loan Fund____________________________________________ 905, 2936
Devine, C. J., & Co., as dealer in Government securities_________________ 1824,
1825, 1831. 1835, 1841, 1845, 1851, 1852, 1863, 1868, 1877, 1883,
1889, 1898, 1901, 1907, 1908, 1914-1917, 1923, 1928,1932, 1936,
1937, 1948.
Diebold, William, Jr., statement of, on general position of the United,States
in world economy__________________________________________________ 889-930
Discount Corp. of New Y ork:
As dealer in Government securities______________________ ___________ 1825,
1826, 1831, 1832, 1835, 1836, 1842, 1846. 1852, 1853, 1863, 1868',
1869, 1877, 1878, 1883, 1884, 1889-1893, 1898, 1901, 1917, 1918,
1923, 1928, 1929, 1932, 1937, 1948-1951.
Statement by Herbert N. R epp_____ ___________________________ 1659-1718
Interlocking directors of, and seven New York banks with major
financial institutions (chart)_________________________________
1672
Rebuttal of, to above chart____________________________________
1673
Interlocking directors of, and its owner-banks, with major financial
institutions_____________________________________________ 1678-1694
Ownership and interlocking connections of, revised_____________
1677
Douglas, Paul H.:
Depressed areas bill____________________________________ 535-537, 590, 591
“ Theory of Wages” ________________________________ 540, 556, 571, 583, 361
Draper Committee______________________________________________________
980
Dunlop, John T., statement of, on collective bargaining_____________ 2733-2755
Du Pont____________________________________________ i _______ 2012, 2021; 2101
Durable goods, industry______________________________________________ 517, 535
Dusenberry, James S.. statement of, on monopoly and quasi-monopoly
2324-2333
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
9
Earnings. (See Wages.)
Pas®
Eastman Kodak________________________________________________________ 2026
Eccles, Marriner S., statement of, on problems and prospects of the Ameri
can economy_______________________________________________________ 199-228
Econometric Institute, Inc.:
Statement of:
Colin G. Clark___ _____________________________ 2447, 2448, 2448-2461
Peter W. Hoguet__________________________________________ 2445-2448
Economic analysis:
As guides to public policy____ 2225, 2226, 2333-2337, 2448-2461, 2483-2498
Assumptions for forecast of 1960, increase over 1959 (table)_________ 2498
Detailed review of 1949 forecast (table)_____________________________ 2497
Econometric Institute Model of U.S. Business Fluctuations (chart) __ 2451
Extracts from Econometric Institute forecasts______________________
2449
Outlook for 1960 (table)______________________________ __________- . _ 2498
Research seminar in quantitative economics (University of Michigan). 2493
Review of forecasts (table)_________________________________________
2493
“ The Economic Outlook for 1960 as Forecast by an Econometric Model
of the United States,” by Daniel B. Suits____________________ 2496-2498
Economic Commission for Europe, staff of, quoted on balance of payments.
947
Economic development:
Aid and trade___________________________ ___________________________
891
And pressure on balance of payments_______________________________
946
Defense support funds in southeast Asia__________________________ 920, 921
Economic aid to Western Europe___________________________________ 2381
Foreign aid:
Cut in_________________________________________ 1453-1454, 1590, 1637
Sustantial and sustained, case for______________________________
2762
Of underdeveloped countries, share expenses of, with Europe________
894,
919-921, 953, 958, 974-976, 978-982
Soviet economic aid______________________________________________ 903, 904
Underdeveloped areas and the U.S. economy___________________ 1052-1086
Economic Indicators, references to _________________________ 45, 1428, 1635,1637
Economic Report of the President:
For 1955_________________________________________________________ 512, 522
For 1958________________________________________________ 330, 373, 472, 512
Regarding consumer credit outstanding_____________________________ 2987
Proposals concerning_______________________________________ 151, 155, 2961
Economies (world):
Economic thinking, past 30 years______________________________ 3189, 3190
Effects of arms expenditures o n ____________________________________
890
European, great improvement in ___________________________________
984
International influences on the American economy (pt. 5 )________ 889-1086
894,
Of West European countries, able to meet burdens of foreign aid____
919-921
Our American Economy_______________________________________ 3385-3388
The American Economy, problems and prospects, part 1____________ 1-228
The Growing Economic Strength of Other Industrial Nations___ 3209-3212
Germany______________________________________________________
3210
Japan_____________________________________________________ 3210-3211
France________________________________________________________
3211
U.S., agreeable surprises of postwar economy___________________ 2863-2864
U.S., major differences in present, from earlier economies_______ 2205-2206
Education:
And the labor force_____________________________________ 531-532, 568, 578
Federal aid to _________________________________ 129, 153, 2460-2461, 2698,
2765, 2794, 2797-2799, 2891-28P2, 3014-3018, 3133-3134
Increasing and improving___________________________________________ 3160
“ The Public Schools Sector: Longrun Trends and Relationship to
Inflation and Growth” _______________________________________ 2671-2701
Eisner, Robert:
Statement of, on income-expenditure approach to the analysis of
money relationships____________________________________________ 767-844
“ Underemployment Equilibrium Rates of Growth” _______________ 811-827
“ On Growth Models and the Neo-Classical Resurgence” __________ 829-844
10
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Employment:
And equilibrium growth________________________________________ 2386-2392
And price stability_____________________________________ 626, 726, 783-784
And productivity trends__________________________________________ 359-360
As a goal of public policy, 596, 726, 2758-2759, 2821-2822, 2958, 3146-3148
As percentage of labor force________________________________________
172
Classical____________________________________ ._______________________
770
Classification of, by BLS_________________________________________ 494-495
“ Constructive Suggestions for Reconciling and Simultaneously Ob
taining the Three Objectives of Maximum Employment, an Ade
quate Rate of Growth, and Substantial Stability of the Price Level”
(pts. 9A and 9 B )____________________________________________ 2757-3239
Distribution o f___________________________________________________ 473-474
Full, and balanced economic growth (A F L -C IO )_______________ 3092-3111
Full, and price stability, problem of equating_______________________
2189
Full-employment GNP, 1947-1958 (tables)_____________________ 2869-2871
“ Historical and Comparative Rates of Labor Force, Employment,
and Unemployment” (pt. 3 )___________________________________ 467-604
In Europe__________________________________________________________
953
Problem of (ILO )______________________________________________ 2811-2812
Service sector___________________________________ 34-35, 173-174, 474, 505
Stability, explanations o f_______________________________________ 2865-2866
Statistics o f___________________________________ 467-511, 527-529, 542-543
Swing in percents of full-employment G N P _________________________
2867
“ The Effect of Increases in Wages, Salaries and the Prices of Personal
Services, Together With Union and Professional Practices Upon
Prices, Profits, Production, and Employment” (pt. 8 )________ 2445-2755
“ The Effect of Monopolistic and Quasi-Monopolistic Practices Upon
Prices, Profits, Production, and Employment (pt. 7 )_________ 1977-2443
Underemployment. _______________________________________________ 812-827
Employment Act of 1946:
Amendment to include price stability as one of the objectives o f____
86,
570, 584, 627, 726, 1372, 2228-2230, 3071-3072
And capabilities and needs of our economy^________________________
98
And Economic Reports of the President____________________________
151
2957
Dependence upon, by business and labor___________________________
Employment Act of 1946: “ The Dynamics of Public Economic
Policy,” reference to (see also study on “ The Relationship of Prices
to Economic Stability and Growth,” March 31, 1958, for text)___
3218
Full employment as national goal, ambiguities o f_________ 2759, 2821-2822
Objectives o f_____________________________________ ^------------- 95, 163, 3151
Employment, growth, and price levels (study of). (See “ Publications of
the Joint Economic Committee,” Congress of the United States, for list
of titles of all hearings, studies and staff reports on this subject, and their
availability.)
Escalation principle________________________________________________ 13, 68, 204
Euratom__________________________________________________ _____________
995
Europe:
Divisive potentialities of the Common Market______________________
1018
Unification o f______________________________________ 1005-1006, 1018, 1023
European Coal and Steel Community High Authority____________ 991, 993-995
European Economic Community_____________________ 991, 993-994, 2947-2953
European Payments Union__________________________ ___________________ 2946
Exchange rates (see also Foreign Exchange)___________________________ 982-983
Export Import Bank___________________________________________ 905, 916, 2936
Exports (see also Balance of payments):
And foreign competition______ 9-10, 893, 946, 591-952, 972, 977, 981, 1024
And imports, American, and private foreign investment------------------899
And imports, size of U.S., as result of formation of Common Mar, ket_________________ __________________________ _____________ 1021-1022
Capital, rule o f________________________________________________ 1064r-1065
Common Market, percentage of their foreign trade to their G N P __ 1040-1048
Demand for American foodstuffs_________________________ _______ 387, 973
Of Agricultural products and raw materials_________________________
973
Of manufactured commodities______________________________________
972
Of raw materials___________________________________________________
892
Quotas_____________________________________________________________
899
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABF'
-?
INDEX TO HEARINGS
11
Exports— Continued
P&t*
Shares in world exports of mr
*
______________________
966
Tariffs________________ 21-22, 21, 04 J7I-372, 895, 899-900, 981, 993, 998
To underdeveloped countries___________________________________ 1058-1061
Trends in of nonindustrialized countries________________________ 1063-1064
Types and size of foreign transactions____________________________ 940-942
U.S., as share of world total (1950-58)______________________________
966
U.S. balance of international payments (1958)______________________
939
U.S. capital, net (1949-59) (table)--------- ------------- -------------------------- 2916
Fabricant, Solomon, statement of, on trends in productivity, production,
and related economic developments_________________________________ 281-377
Farm Bureau. (See American Farm Bureau Federation.)
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (see also pt. 10 of the hearings,
“ Additional Materials Submitted for the Record,” 3241-3486)________ 2941,
3031-3032, 3049, 3052
Federal Funds Market__________________________________________ 878-879, 1536
Federal Reserve Act:
Changes in ____________________________________________________ 1165, 1167
Proposal for labor representation___________________________________
2961
Vault cash amendment__________________________________ 1313, 1410, 3050
Federal Reserve Banks:
And branches, chairmen and deputy chairman of Boards of Direc
tors_________________________________________________________ 1699-1714
Auditing o f____________________________________________________ 1471-1473
Central reserve city banks__________________________________________ 1410
Federal Reserve Bank of New York______________________ 1508, 1649-1650
Gold reserves o f____________________________ _______________________
958
History of reserve ratios of member banks__________________________
1317
Initial reserve payments made from member banks_____________ 3428-3429
Member bank, hypothetical example of organizing a new bank__ 3422-3424
“ Sources and Uses of Member Bank Reserves, 1914-1952” __________
1300
Federal Reserve Board:
Answers to questions submitted to Chairman o f_____ 1761-1820, 3345-3450
Chairman of, testimony_____________________ ______ 1231-1333, 1451-1504
Chairman of, correspondence with____________________ 755-759, 3453- 3455
Federal Reserve Policies:
Bills only__________________________________________________________ 1245,
1248-1249, 1280, 1285, 1295, 1321, 1575, 1594-1596, 1605,
1025, 1666-1667, 1668, 1959-1965, 2766, 2780-2781, 2998, 3005,
3045-3056, 3340-3342.
Discount rate______________________ 879, 1640, 1655, 3030—3033, 3042-3044
Integration of, with Executive policy___________________________ 2764-2779
Margin requirements o f_______________________ 625, 1282, 1405-1407, 1508,
1523, 1530, 1555, 1558-1562, 1585, 1596, 1624, 1656-1657, 1669
M onetary-- ______________________________________________________
5,
37, 71, 87, 102, 173-174, 202, 612-616, 624, 633, 787, 873-887,
2219-2224, 2323-2324, 2392, 2508-2510, 2780-2783, 3177-3178,
3334r-3338.
Open-market'operations. _ 1137, 1140, 1241-1245, 1249-1251, 1252-1255,
1330, 1351-1353, 1373, 1436, 1455, 1460, 1494, 1904, 2508-2511,
2768, 3388-3390.
Basic economics of_____________________ ___________________ 1233-1235
For the Treasury, proposed_______ : ____________________________ 2768
Purpose o f________ ________________________________________ 1547-1548
Repurchase agreements______________________ 1282, 1563-1566, 1570, 1669
Reserve requirements______________________________________________ 1140,
1241-1245, 1254-1255, 1287, 1299, 1313-1317, 1410, 1455, 1459,
1483, 1494, 1716, 2509-2511, 3032, 3044-3050, 3177-3178, 33343338, 3388-3390.
Federal Reserve System:
And Treasury, need for closer coordination between__________ ______
2963
As central place to receive data from security dealers on volume of
lending__________________________________________________________
1715
Federal Advisory Council, members o f______________________________ 1698
Independence of_______________________________________________ 2963-2965
Open Market Committee___________________________________________
720,
879, 1235, 1277, 1312, 1320, 1477, 1515-1518, 1552-1555, 1570,
1592, 1625, 1954, 2220.
12
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO' HEARINGS
Federal Reserve System— Continued
Page
Operation of, book on, by Robert V. Roosa_________________________
1557
Powers o f__________________ 631, 635-636, 688, 725-726, 761-763, 787, 876
Purpose of_________________________________________________________
1456
Report on raising reserve requirement______________________________
1483
Treasury-Federal Reserve study of Government securities market__ 12091221, 1517, 1525, 1533, 1539, 1542, 1546, 1578, 1585, 1645, 1647,
1658-1659.
Fellner, William J., statement of, on monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic
practices_________________________________________________________ 2333-2337
Ferber, Robert, statement of, on effects of wage increases upon prices,
profits, production, and employment_____________________________ 2655-2661
Financial intermediaries:
Alleged differences between, and commercial banks_______________ 865-867
Control of_______________________________________ 879, 881-887, 2790-2791
Holding increasing fraction of wealth_______________________________
631
Ultimate lenders, monetary system, and nonmonetary intermediaries,
as markets for loanable funds________________ 847-848, 1102, 1247, 1373
First Boston Corp., as dealer in Government securities__________________ 1826,
1832, 1836, 1842, 1846, 1853, 1863, 1869-1870, 1878, 1884, 1893,
1898, 1901, 1908, 1918, 1923, 1929, 1933, 1937, 1951.
First National Bank of Chicago, as dealer in Government securities-_ 1826-1827,
1832, 1836, 1843, 1846, 1853-1854, 1864, 1870, 1878, 1884, 18931894, 1898-1899, 1901, 1908-1909, 1918-1919, 1923, 1929, 1933,
1937, 1951-1952.
Fiscal policy:
Administered wages and prices in relation to___________________ 2960-2962
And attaining economic objectives__________________ 2763-2766, 3026-3027
And the Government securities market in 1958_____________________
1589
Countercyclical____________________________________________________ 66-67,
151, 787, 875, 1095, 1137, 1374, 1476, 2193, 2215, 2807, 2877
Erroneous thinking and action in__________________________________ 99-102
Flexibility o f_______________________________________________ 60, 2985, 2998
Government’s management of__________________________________ 1087-1976
Impact of, of all Government bodies combined in business fluctuations
quarterly, 1947-58 (table)_____________________________ 2869-2870, 2877
Major overhaul of, proposed___________________________________ 2794-2796
Of the administration______________________________________________
3225
Recommendations for Federal, by the American Bankers Associa
tion____________ ____________________________________________ 3060-3067
Recommendations for Federal, by the Investment Bankers Associa
tion______________________________________________________________ 3182
Shifts of, and of postponable private expenditures between selected
half-years, 1947-58 (table)_______________________________________
2871
Stabilizing_________________________________________ 2866-2868, 3221-3222
Tax as a measure o f_____________________________________________ 100-102,
119, 167, 3086-3087, 3109-3110, 3152-3155
Tax reform____________________________ 65-66, 154, 1374, 1476, 2507, 2511
Fisher, Irving and the 100-percent reserve system_______ 1459, 3032, 3047-3050
Foreign Exchange (see also Balance of payments).
“ The Gold Shortage, the Dollar Glut, and the Future of Converti
bility’ ’ _________________________________________________________ 2918-2925
Foreign policy:
And the Common Market__________________________________________
1018
Council of Foreign Relations_____________________________________ 902-904
Economic aid to underdeveloped countries_______________________ 892-894,
919-921, 953, 958, 974-976, 978-982
Implications for U.S________________________________________________ 1065
International influences on the American economy, part 5 _______ 889-1086
Trade______ 891, 1060, 2216, 2784, 2789, 2812, 2814-2817, 3073-3074, 3028
Fortune magazine, item-by-item analysis re components of U.S. balance
947
of payments (reference to )____________________________________________
Friedman, Milton:
“ Quantity Theory of Money— A Restatement” ___________________ 649-668
Statement of, on prices and changes in effective supply of money__ 605-669
Statement of, on reconciling and attaining economic objectives-_ 3019-3053
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
13
Fringe benefits:
Pag©
And decline in labor turnover________________________________ 589, 597-600
And reemployment opportunities________________________ 592-593, 596-600
As percent of payroll_____________________________________________ 330-331
Impact of nonwage collective bargaining practices on economic
growth______________________________________________________ 2583-2628
Understate real earnings_________________________________________ 365, 373
Gass, Oscar, statement submitted by, on management of the public
debt_____________________________________________________________ 3444-3450
G A T T _________•_________________________ 896, 900, 999, 1006, 1022, 1025-1026,
1044-1046, 1071-1074, 2907, 2913, 2923, 2947-2948
General Motors________________________________________ 2011, 2021, 2090, 2101
Gilmartin, Maurice A., Jr., statement of, on dealings of Charles E. Quincey
& Co. in Government securities__________________________________ 1643-1658
Ginsberg, Eli, statement of, on manpower aspects of the service sector of
the economy_____________________________________________________ 2661-2670
Goals (economic):
A restatement of economic purpose_________________________________ 95-97
Causes of economic losses__________________ ______________________ 113-132
Departure from ___________________________________________________ 97-113
Policy and program recommendations for_________________________ 152-164
Reconciling and attaining economic objectives (pts. 9A and 9B) _ 2757-3239
Gold, Nathan J., statement of views of National Retail Merchants Asso
ciation, on attaining economic objectives_________________________ 3225-3230
Gold (see also Balance of payments):
And U.S. dollar settlements, 1950-58 (table)________________________
967
Dumping of, on foreign markets____________________________________
626
German accumulation o f___________________________________________
977
Holdings, United States, 1949-58 (table)___________________________
970
Inflow o f______________________________________________________ 1317, 1319
Monetary, and dollar holdings, 1949-59 (table)_____________________
2917
Outflow o f___________________________________ 625, 942-950, 954-958, 1189
Price of__________________________________*_____________ , 626, 938-945, 974
Purchases of, by Treasury, from foreign central banks__________ 3414-3416
Reserves, and liquid dollar holdings of foreign countries (chart)_____
942
Standard, and U.S.S.R_____________ _______ _____________________ 626, 988
Stock, size of_____________________ ________ _______________________
948
The gold shortage, the dollar glut, and the future of convertibility- 2918-2925
The international monetary position of the United States_______ 2905-2917
United States and foreign dollar holdings (chart)___________________
2930
Goldfinger, Nat, letter to Otto Eckstein and reply, regarding steel and post
war inflation_____________________________________________________ 3471-3477
Goldsmith, Raymond W.:
Statement of, on long-term trends in national product and income. 230-279
Letter to the chairman transmitting table and additional informa
tion_________________________________________________________ 3455-3456
Gordon, Robert A., statement of, on reconciling and attaining economic
objectives_______________________________________________________ 2955-2988
Government, Federal:
As sector, in the private economy_______________ ______________ 3108-3109
Borrowing by, compared with State and local__________________ 1095-1098
Effects of high interest and tight money on State and local facilities. _ 3368
Expenditures, increase in____ 159, 2121, 2453, 2460-2461, 2484, 2491, 2507
Expenditures, reduction of__________ 117, 129, 1374, 1589-1590, 3061-3063
Financing and debt management policies_______________________ 1338-1339
Management of monetary, fiscal, and debt operations__________ 1087-1976,
3241-3486
Policies o f_____________________ 4, 18, 100-102, 112, 200-203, 569-570, 780,
2483, 2499, 2633, 2639-2647, 2868-2869, 3085, 3197, 3151-3156
Programs. (See Government programs.)
Securities. (See Government securities; dealers, security.)
Government programs:
And monopoly_____________________________________________________
2099
Expenditures for_____________________________ 2465-2469, 2501-2503, 3152
Farm programs out of control (chart)______________________________
3072
Farm subsidy__________________________ 1163, 2502, 2963, 3063, 3072-3073
FHA and VA mortgages________________ 1376, 1380-1381, 1385-1387, 1475
F N M A ____________________________________________ 1447-1448, 1598-1599
14
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Government programs— Continued
Page
Foreign trade policies__________________________________________ 3073-3074
Highway construction_______ ______________________ 1454, 1466-1470, 3235
Home Loan Bank__________________________________________________ • 1447
Housing and urban redevelopment_____________________________ 3134-3139
Housing____________________ _
5, 41, 129, 568, 577, 3074-3075, 3166-3168
National fuels policy/ suggestion for____________________________ 3732-3235
Research and development_________________________________________ 1163,
2327, 2345-2347, 2762, 2964, 3079-3080, 3160
Social Security_____________________________________________ 119, 598, 2235
To combat inflation. (See Inflation.)
To strengthen public sector____________________________________ 3141-3143
Transportation, secondary roads____________________________________ 3138
Trust funds________________________________________________________
1479
Unemployment relief_______________________________________________
88,
132, 201, 519, 533, 547, 599, 2723, 2758, 2880, 3074, 3235
Government securities:
Advance funding of________________________________________________
1373
Aggregate transactions in___ 1567, 1579-1581, 1622, 1657, 1670, 2219, 3278
Allotments of Treasury bonds offered for cash, 1953-59 (table)_______ 3307
And the budget_______________________________ 173-174, 211, 222, 676-679
Auctioning of__________________________ 1148-1162, 1179, 1245, 1257-1272,
1378-1380, 1433, 1531, 1566, 1597, 1658, 3292, 3294-3305
Bids for large municipal bond offers (table)__________________________ 3324
Bills, offerings o f______________________________________________ 1178, 3025
Bills only. (See Federal Reserve policies.)
Competition in market for_______________________________ 1180, 1753-1757
Dealers in. (See Dealers, security.)
Federal Reserve portfolio of________________________________ _____ . 720-722
881
Financial intermediaries, and_______________________________________
Interest ceiling on __________________________________________________
69,
70, 179, 202, 211, 225-226, 263, 1137, 1139, 1241, 1245, 1255-1257,
1292-1293, 1313, 1318, 1373, 1477-1478, 2483, 2507-2509, 2767,
2998, 3249-3251.
Interest rates on______________________________________________ 69, 70, 179,
202, 211, 225, 226, 263, 1184, 1245, 1387-1392, 1397, 1515-1518
Issues of, 1945-58-1___________________________________________ 1096-1097
Local bonds____________________________________________________ 228, 3324
Long-term, short-term (definition)__________________________________
1323
Market analysis for____________________________________________ 1189-1190
Minimum and maximum accepted bids on offerings of 91-day Treas
ury bills, April to June, 1959 (table)__________________ ___________ 3025
Net market purchases or sales of Federal securities for investment
accounts handled by Treasury (table)____________________________
3322
Open market purchases (see also Federal Reserve policies)___________ 1145
Oversubscriptions______________________ 1648, 2768, 2791, 3274-3277, 3305
Ownership o f_______________________________________ 1104-1109,1113-1131
Price o f____________________________________________________________
1312
Profits on sale o f________________________ ____________ 676-678, 1132-1133,
1136, 1143-1144, 1183, 1237-1241, 1254-1255, 1601-1603, 1651
Refundings____________________________________________________ 1096-1099
Repurchase agreements. (See Federal Reserve policies.)
Short selling of________________________________________________ 1643-1647
Speculation in_________ ______________________ 1132-1133, 1562, 1666-1667
Stabilization fund for_______________________________________________ 3316
Subscriptions, other than bills__________________________________ 1173-1177
Swapping operations_______________________________________________
1245
The competitive position of Treasury securities_________________ 1753-1757
Treasury-Federal Reserve study on_____ 1088, 1094-1095, 1209-1221, 1517,
1525, 1533, 1539, 1542, 1546, 1578, 1585, 1645, 1647, 1658-1659
Government, State and local:
Bids for large municipal bond offerings (table)______________________
3324
Borrowing by, compared with Federal Government_____________ 1095-1098
Effects of high interest and tight money on _________________________
3368
Local, and stabilization aids________________________________________ 2880
Gray, Horace M., “ Private Affluence and Public Poverty,” excerpt from
Illinois Business Review__________________________________________ 3456-3460
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
15
Page
Great Britain, growth of GNP__________________________ 244-247, 249-250, 260
Grether, E. T., statement of, on effects of monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic practices_________________________________________________ 2115-2119
Gross national product:
And obsolescence_______________________________________________ 16-17
And U.S. imports (chart)___________________________________________
966
As measure of economic growth__________________ 16, 31-32, 230-231, 1089
Changes in, and effect on real earnings___________________________ 320-323
Cyclical fluctuations in______________________________________ 251, 475-476
Deficit in, 1953-58 (chart)__________________________________________
109
Full-employment GNP, 1954 and current dollars (table)________ 2869-2870
Full employment GNP, fiscal magnitudes as percent of (table)______ 2871
Full employment GNP, private postponable expenditures as percent
of (table)_______________________________________________ ________
2871
Full employment GNP, swing in percents of (table)_________________ 2867
Full employment level, relation of 1954 dollar GNP to (table)_______ 2871
Hypothetical increase in, of $100 billion________________________ 2322-2323
Inflation in_______________________________________________ ;________
1310
Long swing of______________________________________________________
251
Of the Common Market countries_____________________________ 1040-1041
Per capita_________________________________________ 16, 31-32, 73, 231, 267
Per man-hour___________________________________________ 298-299, 351-352
Relative increases in gross national product, money supply, velocity
of money, and prices (table)_____________________________________
3417
Revised index_________________________________________________ 1326-1327
Trend o f_________________________________________________________ 230-279
Growth, economic:
Analysis and econometric models as guide to future prospects and
policy decisions______________________________________________ 2483-2491
And energy resources____________________________________________ 367-368
And growth in investment expenditures__________________________ 464-465
And inflation____________________________________________ 2831, 3058-3059
And other indicators of economic activity________________________ 416-421
And ratio of monopoly and competition_____________________________ 1979
And severe depressions______________________________________ 427-428, 462
And the Common Market__________________________________________
1018
And the price level________________________________ ______________ 458-460
And the quantity theory of money__________________________________
464
As a goal of public policy_____________________________________ 1088-1091,
2760-2762, 2958^-2959, 2989-2992, 3148-3149, 3182-3184
As net gain, truism only_______________________________________ 2760-2761
Balanced, and full-employment (A F L -C IO )____________________ 3092-3111
Capital formation________________________________________________ 423-434
Comparative, United States-Soviet_____ 2456, 2473-2482, 2792, 2886, 3164
Constructive suggestions for reconciling and attaining objectives
o f___________________________________________________________ 2757-3239
Offset of high interest rate and tight money on_________________ 3365-3366
Effect of strikes and automation upon__________________________ 3226-3227
Effects of arms expenditures on ________________ __________________ 890-891
Essential facts on________________________________________________ 347-349
Estensive and intensive________________________ _________________ 235-236
Factors in recent rate of growth__________________________________ 460-462
Five basic chronologies in the long-swing process_________________ 428-433
Forced___________________________ 2761, 2776-2778, 2786-2787, 2819-2821
General character o f________ ____________________________________ 412-414
Imbalance of____________________________________________________ 260-261
Impact of monopoly on ____________________________________ _
2347-2353
Impact of nonwage collective bargaining on____________________ 2602-2603
Impediments to ____________________________________________________
225
In financial intermediaries__________________________________________
856
Ingredients of__________ _______________________________________ 3057-3058
In the public-school sector_____________ =.______________________ 2671-2701
In the service sector_________________________________________
2655-2701
In underdeveloped areas of the world__________________________ 1053-1086
In Western Europe, Soviet Union______________________________ 2380-2382
Long swings in___________________________________________________ 411-466
16
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Growth, economic— Continued
Pag#
Longrun determinants of United States__________________ 2379-2443, 2455
Measure o f___________________ 16, 31-32, 73, 106, 208, 414-416, 1236-1237
Need for_________________________________________________ 2-3, 95-96, 107
Physical output, imput, and productivity_________________________ 424-427
Policies to stimulate_______________________________________________
526
Population growth and economic progress_____________ 421-423, 2397-2400
Problems of, in the 1960’s__________________ ___________________ 3187-3216
Quality o f_____________________________________________________ 2873, 2888
Rate o f _______________________________ 82, 105, 119-120, 208-211, 230-231,
416-421, 434-453, 458-460, 1062-1064, 2455, 2792-2796
Rapid___________________________________________ 412, 459-460, 2960-2971
Revised index of_______________________________________________ 1326-1327
Role of_________________________________________________ 776-780, 804-807
Savings and taxes__________________________________________________
1164
Short run__________________________________________________________
5
Slow, reasons for_________________ 2160-2162, 2166, 2381, 3094, 3164-3165
Theories o f_________________________________________ 2386-2392, 2401-2417
Unsustainable______________________________________________________
1414
United States_________________________________________ 105, 230-279, 3094
Gurley, John G., statement of, on institutional frictions in money and
credit markets_____________________________________________________ 847-887
Hamberg, D., statement of, on effects of monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic practices_________________________________________________ 2337-2358
Hansen, Alvin H.:
761
“ Debt Management, 1959” _________________________________________
“ Inflationary Pressures, 1955-57: A Neglected Factor” ___________ 760-761
Hart, Albert G., statement of, on reconciling and attaining economic ob
jectives______________________ ___________________________________ 2861-2903
Hauser, Alfred H., statement of, on dealings of Chemical Corn Exchange
Bank in Government securities___________________________________ 1622-1642
Health programs:
Doctors, supply o f_________________________________________________
2689
Health education___________________________________________________ 2695
Heller, Walter W., statement of, on reconciling and attaining economic
objectives________________________________________________________ 2988-3018
Highway construction:
In distressed labor areas____________________________________________ 3225
Pay-as-you-go plan_________________________________ 1454, 1466-1470, 1493
Trust fund_________________________________________________________
1492
Hildebrand, George H., statement of, on economic significance of collective
bargaining_______________________________________________________ 2528-2543
Hines, Howard H., statement of, on effects of monopolistic and quasimonopolistic practices____________________________________________ 1977-1999
Hinshaw, Randall, “ Implications of the Shift in the U.S. Balance of Pay
ments” _____________________________________________________________ 959-964
Hirsch, Werner Z., statement of, on the public schools sector________ 2671-2687
Hoguet, Peter W., statement of, on the Econometric Institute, Inc__ 2445-2448
Holmes, Justice Oliver Wendell: quoted, on imperfect knowledge_____ ___ 2988
Hoover, Calvin B., statement of, on effects of monopolistic and quasimonopolistic practices____________________________________________ 2379-2384
Hoover, Ethel D., statement of, on history of wholesale and retail prices, 384-393
Houser, T. V., statement of, Committee for Economic Development, on
reconciling and attaining economic objectives_____________________ 3157-3161
Housing (see also Government programs):
And urban redevelopment_____________________________________ 3134-3139
Cooperative___________________________________________________ 3166-3167
Effects of high interest and tight money on____________________ 3367-3368
Homeownership and labor mobility {see also Labor, mobility o f)__ 568, 577
Immigration, effects on labor force____________________________________ 568, 578
Imports (see also Balance of Payments; Tariffs):
Acceleration o f_____________________________________________________
946
And domestic labor wages__________________________________________
977
And the gross national product (chart)_____________________________
966
Increasing consumer interest in___________________________________ 951, 956
Of raw materials___________________________________________________
972
Quotas on agricultural commodities and metals___________________ 893, 973
Quotas versus tariffs as import-curtailing devices___________________
1027
Tariffs on imports of foreign cars___________________________________
981
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
17
Income:
Page
And price trends_________________________________________________ 154-159
Average family personal income (table)_____________________________ 3131
Distribution_____________________________________________ 2516-2628, 3165
Farm_____________________________________________________ 119,1183,3367
Groups, low___________________________________________________ 3126-3132
Held in the form of money_________________________________________
630
How family income was shared (table)_____________________________
3132
Per capita___________________________________________________ 518-519, 694
Personal_________________________________________________ 1640, 3131-3132
National___________________________________________________________ 2379
Rate of growth of, in different sectors_______________________________
243
Velocity____________________________ 673-675, 690-691, 984-986, 3435-3443
Income-expenditure approach to analysis of money relationships__ 767-845
Indexes (see also Consumer Price Index):
Deficiencies in wholesale price______________________________________
388
Derivation of wholesale price index for the United States, 1720-1958_
399
Employment-unemployment, need for______________________________
2759
Index numbers of money supply and prices (table)__________________ 3354
Price, correspondence from Federal Reserve Board_____________ 1485-1489
Production___________________________________________ _____________
1640
Retail prices, 1800 to 1958_______________________________________ 397-398
Wholesale prices, 1720 to 1958___________________________________ 394-397
Weaknesses of_____________________________________________________
2267
Industrial feudalism____________________________________________________
588
Industrial revolution in America_________________________________ 253-254, 269
Industry (see also Business; Corporations):
Automobile__________ 87, 213-214, 222, 510, 574-575, 2011, 2021, 2090, 2101
Concentration in _____________ 2117, 2314-2321, 2324-2326, 2558-2560, 2639
Construction (see also Government programs)____: _______ 2003, 3166-3167
Freedom of entry into_________________________________________ 1978-1979,
1981-1999, 2003, 2123, 2139-2147, 2216, 2847
Integration_______________________________________ ________________
2280
Horizontal________________________________________________ 2280-2293
Vertical___________________________________________________ 2293-2294
Large-scale, encouragement of wage restraint and price reductions in_ 2566
Locating_________________________________________________________ 509-510
Relocation of, for defense______________________________________
2762
Manufacturing, price inflation in, 1955-59______________________2155-2169
Productivity of (see also Production)_____________________________ 356-357
2231
Protection of, from competition____________________________________
Stainless steel flatware_____________________________________________ 48-49
Tax incentives for (see also Taxes)__________________________________ 2765
Training of labor b y _______________________________________________
520
Inflation:
A definition of “ true” ______________________________________________
3175
And collective bargaining______________________________________ 2615-2628
And economic objectives___________________________ 2758, 2808, 2955-2958
And employment_____________________________________ 552-553, 2830-2831
And Government policy__________________________ _______________ 569-570
And growth_____________________________________ 57-59, 98, 856, 3368-3377
And incentive to save_____________________ __________________1092, 1162
And international position of U.S. dollar___________________ 954, 1024, 3059
And market power of unions___________________________________ 2628-2653
And system of taxation________________________________________ 2459-2482
Campaign against_____________________________ 1392-1396, 1451, 3258, 3261
Cost-push, demand-pull______ 8, 132-151, 262-263, 699, 700-719, 728, 2169,
2188, 2208, 2334, 2577, 2824-2825, 3226, 3375-3376
“ Creeping” __________________ 47, 59-62, 68, 77, 85, 203, 242, 272, 2830-2831
During Civil War__________________________________________________
386
During Revolutionary W ar______________________________________ 381-382
Effective control over______ 1093, 1308, 1372, 2155, 2215-2217, 2261, 2265,
2308, 2483-2484, 2507, 2827-2830
Effect of, on pensions______________________________________________
13
Extent of postwar_____________________________ 169-171, 201, 607, 701-706
Fear of, and fixed investments__________ 1382-1384, 1629-1630, 1634, 1657
Implications o f_____________________________________________________
699
18
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Inflation— Continued
Page
In construction costs_______________________________________________
3075
In Europe__________________________________________________________ 12-13
“ Inflationary pressures, 1955-57: A Neglected Factor” __________ 760-761
Nature of current___________________________________ 2194-2205, 2824-2827
Necessary_________________________________________________ 21, 57, 788-789
New type o f_______________________________________________________
671
Overemphasis on _________________________________________ 2528, 2872, 2890
Policies for prosperity without inflation_________________________ 3056-3080
Postwar, centers on velocity________________________________________
682
Potential sources o f_______ _____________________________________ 3192-3193
Price_______________________________________________ 11,29,206,2155-2169
Recent inflation in the United States___________________________ 2193-2205
Reliance on fiscal and monetary restraints______________________ 2566-2567
Secular________________________________________________________ 2199,2831
Sellers’, treatment for__________________________________________ 2261, 2265
“ The Service Sector: Longrun Trends and Relationships to Inflation 1
and Growth” ________________________________________________ 2655-2670
Innovation. (See Technology.)
Inter-American Development Bank______________________________________
896
Interest rates:
As a determinant of velocity of money______________________________
694
As administered prices_________________________________________ 3444-3445
And business cycles______________________________________ 2986, 3251-3254
And demand deposits_____________________________________ 854, 3029-3030
And economic growth__________________________________________ 3365-3368
And impact on, of Federal Reserve purchases of Government secu
rities________________________________________________________ 1252-1253
And inflation_____________________________________________ 3176, 3381-3383
And income velocity___________________________________________ 3435-3443
And savings_______________________________________ 1184, 1375, 1515, 1517,
1572, 2800, 3255-3256, 3355-3358
Ceiling, on longf-term bonds. _____________________________________
69,
70, 179, 202, 211, 225-226, 263, 1137, 1139, 1241, 1245, 1255-1257,
1292-1293, 1313, 1318, 1373, 1477-1478, 2483, 2507-2509, 2767,
2998, 3249-3251
Comparison of, and various measures of consumer saving (table)____ 3356
Cost of money_____________________________________________________
772
Federal Reserve discount rates_____ 879, 1640, 1655, 3030-3033, 3042-3044
Increasing, prevent unsustainable growth_____________________ _ 1414, 2392
Influencing, by Federal Reserve____________________ 2810, 3349-3352, 3360
Influencing, by Treasury__ ___________________ 1095, 1099, 1101, 3277-3278
Influences other than competition on_______________________ ®______ 1102
Interest payments of Government in proportion to total econom y___ 1208
Interest payments on national debt______________________ _
227-267, 685
On demand deposits____________ _________________________ 854, 3029-3030
On Government bonds______________________________ 69, 70, 179, 202, 211,
225-226, 263, 1184, 1245, 1387-1392, 1397, 1515-1518
On primary securities___________________________________ 848-852, 854-855
On time deposits___________________________________________________
854
“ Pegging” _______________________________________________ 1104, 1315, 1399
Short-term____________________________________________________ 1103, 3271
To decrease________________________________________________________
773
International balance of payments. (See Balance of payments.)
International Business Machines C o________________________________ 2026, 2100
International Central Bank, proposal for__________________________ t 2938-2945
International Cooperation Administration:
Rates of__ _________________________________________________________
905
The use of local currency counterpart for debt retirement, 1948-52__
912915
International Development Authority___________________________ 916, 920, 2907
International Influences on the American Economy (pt. 5)___________ 889-1086
International Monetary Fund_________________________________________ 39, 905,
947, 970, 2928, 2931-2945, 2950-2951
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
19
International Trade (see also Trade, Markets, Exports, Imports):
Page
As substitute for domestic market__________________________________
250
And deficiency in U.S. balance of payments situation_____________ 219-220
And protective tariffs____________________________________________ 371-372
Cost differential____________________________________________________ 48-49
Reduction of quotas________________________________________________ 48-49
With free world____________________________________________________ 42-43
Inventory accumulation___________________________ 2879, 2882-2883, 2892-2896
Investment:
Abroad___________________________________________ 946, 951, 956, 999, 1022
As means of expanding production___________________________ 96, 155, 212
772
And cost of money_________________________________________________
And consumption in the private sector, balance between____________
3108
And monetary policy_______________________________________________
102
And taxation_____________________________________________________ 66, 101
Capital, and taxation__________________________________________ 2460, 2513
Equilibrium________________________________________________________
96
Equity__________________________________________________________ 224-225
Growth in_______________________________________________________ 776-778
Incentives, and concentration of market power_________________ 2324-2326
In new enterprise______________________________________________ 2139-2147
In plant and equipment______________________________ 5, 147-148, 162, 772
Net private and foreign (chart)_____________________________________
109
Of corporations________________________________________________ 2487-2489
Of insurance funds_____________________________________________ 1335-1407
Of savings banks______________________________________________ 1410-1450
Per additional worker required by existing techniques of production. _ 2389
Stocks versus bonds______ ____________________________________ 3254-3255
Private foreign, relation to U.S. exports and imports______________ 898-899
To accelerate growth_______________________ _________________ _____
3160
Investment Bankers Association of America, statement o f___________ 3181-3184
Jacoby, Neil H., statement of, on longrun problems of structural change
and adaptation of the U.S. economy_________________________________ 55-91
Kahn, Mark L., statement of, on nonwage collective bargaining_____ 2583-2588
Kendrick, John, reference to works o f____________________________ 292, 351, 355
Kennedy, Thomas, letter of, submitting statement of United Mine Workers. 3231
Kerr, William D., letter of, submitting statement of Investment Bankers
Association______________________________________________________ 3181-3184
Killingsworth, Charles C., statement of, on market power of unions. _ 2628-2632
Kindleberger, Charles P., statement of:
On balance of payments deficit___________________________________ 954-958
On equilibrating influence of income______________________________ 984-986
Keyserling, Leon H., statement of, on redirecting economic efforts to meet
the challenge at midcentury_________________________________________ 93-197
Klein econometric model_____________________________________ 2486, 2493, 2500
Korean war__________________________ 95, 112, 138, 156-157, 406, 520, 526, 560
Labor:
And cyclical fluctuations_________________________________________ 556, 557
And enlightened self-interest________________________________________ 2169
And management, need for competing in world markets__________ 977
And productivity gains, fear o f_____________________________________
2162
Annual increment to supply o f_________________________________ 2388, 2389
3105
Areas of substantial labor surplus (table)________________________ _
Average productivity of, at full employment___________________ 2388, 2389
Bureau of Labor Statistics___ ___________________________________ 467-511,
Collective bargaining (for breakdown see Collective bargaining) _ _ 2335-2367,
2516-2628, 2734-2744, 2964, 2968-2970, 3111-3126, 3226-3227*
Costs of______________________________________________ 204, 477, 3200-3203
Department o f___________________________________ __________________
578
Division of, in world market________________________________________
37J>
Educational effects on____________________________________________ 531-532
“ Featherbedding” ______________________ 2620-2622, 2599-2601, 2605-2609
Force:
Changing growth i n . . 513, 514, 522, 523, 527, 539-567, 582, 583, 588, 589
Effects of immigration on ___________________________________ 568, 578
Total labor, ratio of unemployment to (table)__________________
2720
Women in _____________ 472, 473, 479, 505, 541-543, 561, 568, 578, 584
20
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Labor—Continued
Page
“ Historical and Comparative Rates of Labor Force, Employment,
and Unemployment” (pt. 3 )___________________________________ 467-604
Labor-management relations, role of Government in ________________ 2735,
2736, 2769, 2770, 2783, 2784, 2998
“ Manpower Aspects of the Service Sector of the Economy” ____ 2661-2670
Markets_______________ 62, 469, 555, 572, 573, 2371, 2628-2653, 2717, 2956
Maximum use of, and monopolv____________________________________ 2008
Mobility of___________________________________ 478, 479, 535-537, 567-586,
587-604, 2574-2582, 2601, 2602, 2704-2707, 2709, 2727, 2976
Monthly Report of Labor Force Survey _470, 471, 496, 511, 515, 523, 528, 554
Permanent loss of, during depressions_______________________________ 2385
Policy, national_______________________________________________ 2564-2575
Productivity (see also Productivity)_______________________ 7, 249, 324-327
Rate of return on___________________________________________________
361
Requirements, net nonagricultural, indicators for (table)____________
2720
Rise in demand for professional, technical and skilled labor_____ 2573, 2742
Seniority rights______________________ 597, 600, 601, 2586, 2587, 2614-2620
Service sector__________________________________________________ 2655-2701
Supply-demand situation, current (table)___________________________ 2720
Supply, effects of seasonal or temporary factors (table)______________ 2720
Surplus:
Major areas of substantial (table)_________________________ 2718, 3105
Smaller areas of substantial (table)___- ________________________
2718
“ The Economic Impact of Contracts with Automatic Cost-of-Living
and Productivity Adjustments” ______________________________ 2550-2553
“ The Effect of Increases in Wages, Salaries, and the Prices of Per
sonal Services, Together with Union and Professional Practices
Upon Prices, Profits, Production, and Employment” (pt. 8 )__ 2445-2755
Trade unions, collective bargaining, and wage structures____________
2549
Trends in unit labor cost (chart)___________________________________
3201
War effects______________________________________________________ 541-543
Working rules and conditions__________________________________ 2583-2628
Workweek________________________________ 554, 555, 2602, 2603, 2625-2628
Labor Unions (see also AFL-C IO , United Mine Workers of America):
Antitrust laws applicable to ____________________________________ 2108-2113
Decentralization o f___________________ 9, 2335-2367, 2565, 2964, 2968-2970
Exemption of, from antitrust laws__--------------------------------- 2007, 2068-2080
Management of____________ _____________________________ ___________
220
Market power o f____________________ 204-205, 2010, 2371, 2728-2653, 2956
Policies recommended by, to stimulate grow th-_ 526, 3092-3111, 3231-3239
Trade unions, impact of, on general wage level_________________ 2544-2549
Lanston, Aubrey G., & Co., Inc.:
As dealer in Government securities_________________________________ 1827,
1832, 1837, 1843, 1846, 1854-1855, 1864, 1870-1872, 1878-1879,
1884-1885, 1894-1895, 1899, 1901, 1909, 1919, 1923, 1929-1930,
1933, 1937-1938.
Supplementary statement o f___________________________________ 1965-1973
Lanzilotti, Robert K., statement of, on monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic practices____________________________________________________ 2237-2262
Latane, Henry A.:
Reference t o ___________________________________________________ 3241-3242
Reprint, “ Income Velocity and Interest Rates— A Pragmatic Ap
proach” _______________ ______________________________________ 3435-3443
Latin America, underdeveloped countries of_________________________ 1066-1071
Lebergott, Stanley, statement of, on labor mobility___________________ 567-586
Lederer, Walther, statement of, on recent trends and current problems in
balance of international payments_________ ________________________ 938-945
Legislation:
Banking A ct___________________________________________________ 1743, 3032
Bulwinkle A ct________- __________________________________________ _
2121
Celler Antimerger A ct______________________________________________
2125
Clayton Act__________ 2011, 2027, 2120, 2123, 2133, 2149-2154, 2089, 2121
Employment Act of 1946. (See separate entry.)
Federal Reserve A ct___________________ 1165, 1167, 1313, 1410, 2961, 3050
Miller-Tydings Amendment________________________________________
2121
Proposed, to reduce size of labor unions and corporations_______ 2335-2337
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
21
Legislation— Continued
Page
Robinson-Patman A ct____________ 2011, 2097, 2120, 2124, 2137, 2147-2148
Sherman A ct_____________________ 2011, 2019, 2022, 2027, 2120, 2121-2124
Webb-Pomerene Act____________________________________________ 212, 2152
Lerner, Abba, statement of, on monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic prac
tices_____________________________________________________________ 2262-2266
Libby, McNeil & Libby________________________________________________
2028
Life Insurance Association of America, statement of, on reconciling and
attaining economic objectives____________________________________ 3185-3186
Liabilities, to foreign official institutions, 1949-58 (part of table)________
970
Loanable Funds Market. (See Markets, Financial Intermediaries, and
Gurley, John G.)
Long, Clarence D., statement of, on the labor force under changing income
and employment___________________________________________________ 539-567
McDonald, David J .:
Letter to chairman commenting on Study Paper No. 2, “ Steel and the
Postwar Inflation’ ’ __________________________________________ 3477-3479
Chairman’s reply___________________________________________________ 3479
65
McGraw-Hill, survey of American manufacturing industries_____________
Machlup, Fritz, statement of, on reconciling and attaining economic
objectives_______________________________________________________ 2819-2861
Management:
And labor, need for competing in world markets____________________
977
And labor relations, role of Government in____________________ 2735-2736,
2769-2770, 2783-2784
And wage increases________________________________________________
2956
Rights and functions o f__________________________________ 2584-2588, 2591
Manufacturing. (See Industry, Prices, Production, Wages.)
Markets:
And price indexes of wholesale commodities for period 1720-1861___
380
Availability of, to sustain production_______________________________
374
Common. (See separate entry.)
Communist Chinese______________________________________________ 902-903
Capital, net flow___________________________________________________
1428
Competitive, role o f _____________________________________ 1231-1232, 2003
“ Disorderly” _________________________________ 1276-1277, 1414, 1603-1605
Domestic__________________________________________________________
375
Effects on performance of, by entry of outside firms____________ 1981-1992
Entry into:
v
^
And monopoly__________________________ 1978, 2123, 2139-2147, 2216
By established firms___________________________ 1979, 1981-1999, 2003
F'armers___________________________________________________________
119
Federal funds______________________________________________________
1536
Foreign__________________________________________________________ 374-375
“ Futures” _____________________________________________________ 2885, 2899
Government securities______________________________________________ 1094,
1189-1190, 1232-1247, 1277-1280, 1535, 1569, 1573, 1626-1627,
1638, 1659-1660, 1668, 1757-1760, 1800-1802, 1911-1957.
Investment and savings____________________________________________
202
848
Loanable funds, demand, supply, and equilibrium in________________
London money market_____________________________________________
1660
Market power, price policies, and growth_______________________ 2364-2378
Mechanisms___________________________________________________ 1094-1095
Money and credit, institutional frictions in _______________________ 847-887
Mortgage__________________________________________________________
1444
Nordic Common_________________________________________________ 900-901
Oligopolistic_______________________________________________________
1979
“ Pegged” ______________________________________ 1286, 1373, 1399, 1413
Performance of, for Treasury securities-_ 1757-1760, 1800-1820, 1911-1957
Stability in__________ _____________________________________________
1587
Trends in__________________________________________________________
375
Margin requirements. (See Federal Reserve policies.)
Markham, Jesse W., statement of, on monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic
practices________________________________________________________ 2119-2123
Marshall Plan__________________________________________________ 906-907, 1024
Martin, William H., statement of, on monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic
practices_________________________________________________________ 2000-2<018
22
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Martin, William McChesney, Jr.:
Page
Statement of, on the Government’s management of its monetary, fiscal,
and debt operations______________________________ 1231-1333, 1451-1504
Answers to supplementary questions of the Joint Economic Com
mittee___________________________________________ 1763-1820, 3349-3450
Letter to the chairman________________________________________ 3453-3455
Meany, George; letter transmitting statement of A FL -C IO on reconciling
and attaining economic objectives________________________________ 3089-3092
Mergers:
A parenthesis on_______________________________________________ 1992-1994
Clayton Act, section 7, on__________________________ 2028-2029, 2038-2045
Horizontal and vertical_____________________________________________ 2101
Premerger notification____________________________________ 2090, 2093-2094
Meyer, John R., statement of on methods of forecasting growth, employ
ment and prices__________________________________________________ 2485-2496
Mikesell, Raymond F., statement of, on underdeveloped areas and the U.S.
economy_________________________________________________________ 1058-1065
Military expenditures. (See Defense.)
Miller, John Perry, statement of, on monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic
practices_________________________________________________________ 2123-2126
Miller-Tydings amendment to Clayton Act, exempting vertical price fixing
from antitrust laws___________________________________________________
2121
Minsky, Hyman P.:
Reprint, “ Monetary Systems and Accelerator Models” ___________ 730-754
Statement of, on monopolistic anti quasi-monopolistic practices. _ 2205-2217
Mix of policies, monetary-fiscal (see tilso Fiscal policy, Monetary policy,
Debt Management)_______________________ 2762, 2770-2772, 2962-2963, 3035
Models, economic_________________________ 98-99, 158, 731, 829-844, 2225-2498
Monetary policy (see also Federal Reserve policies, Fiscal policy, Debt
management):
Administered wages and prices in relation to ___________________ 2960-2962
As a device to restrict investment. .1_______________________________
2771
And adverse balance of payments__ \ ______________________________
625
And fiscal policy, inadequate______ 1.____________________ 203-204,206-207
And excessive credit expansion (see also Credit)____636-637, 1092, 1311,
1328-1329, 2392, 2509, 2771, 3068-3071, 3175-3179
And its relation to debt management____________________________ 1719-1721,
2766-2768, 2998-2999, 3451-3486
And stock of money___________________________ _________________ 611, 616
And tax policies_________________________ 3086-3087, 3109-3110, 3152-3155
And time lags____________________________________________________ 611, 615
And unemployment__________________________,______ 2226, 2335-2336, 2392
Brief U.S history of________________________________________________
1458
Decided by Federal Reserve (see also Federal Reserve policies).
167,
3256-3257
Distinguish between, and credit policy______________________________
621
During recent postwar period____________________________________ 869-872
Extension of, over financial intermediaries__________________________
879
Flexible, need for________________________________________ 1095, 3181, 3221
General________________ 1763-1785, 2166, 2168, 2172, 3040-3052, 3109-3110
Inflexible______________________________________________ 60, 66-67, 102-103
International_______________________________________ 2905-2917, 2918-2925
Monetary restraint____________________________ 154, 1246, 2531, 2892-2893
Monetary systems and accelerator models________________________ 730-754
Regressive_______________________________________________________ 119, 151
Selective__________ 2193, 2215, 2219-2220, 2335-2337, 2383, 2392, 2531-2543
The Government’s management of its monetary, fiscal, and debt opera
tions________________________________________________________ 1987-1976
Wise national______________________________________________________
611
Money (see also Credit):
Academic thinking about________________________________________ 606-611
A comm odity?_____________________________________________________
1103
“ Agenda for Monetary Reform” ____________________________________ 3022
And absentee ownership__________________________________________ 781-782
And credit markets, institutional frictions in______________________ 847-887
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
23
Money— Continued
Page
607
And income flow________________ .---------------------------------------------------And interest rates_______________________________________________ 782-783
Annual velocities for_______________________________________________
680
Behavior of_________________________________________________ 614, 671-699
Cash balances adjusted to longer term level of income---------------------610
Changes in factors of equation___________________________________ 608-609
Cheap money policies______________________________________________
607
662
Congressional control over, and credit___________ ___________________
Cost of holding cash balances______________________________________
610
Cycles in the behavior o f_______ _________________________________ 692-693
Definition o f_____________________________________________________ 621, 632
Demand for, and credit__________________________________________ 781-782
Deposit turnover________________________________________________ 676, 691
Economic research on recent operation of monetary forces__________
607
Equation of exchange____________________________________________ 672, 682
“ Fiat” _____________________________________________________________ 3418
Flow of, and Federal Reserve policy________________________________ 1460
Holdings in the form o f____________________________________________
630
Including time deposits as part o f__________________________________
632
Income-expenditure approach to analysis of money relationships__ 767-845
Increases and decreases of, effects o f_________________________ 609, 775, 879
Influence on prices of changes in the effective supply o f___________ 605-887
Markets_________________________________________________ 1904, 1099, 1100
Monetary reform in Western Germany_____________________________
607
970
Monetary reserve position of the United States (table)______________
Monetary systems and accelerator models________________________ 730-754
Quantity theory o f______________________ 608, 649-668, 672, 790-792, 1330
Real stock of, factors affecting_____________________________________
610
Relation between stock of money and flow of income (Keynes)______
606
Role o f_____________________________________________________ 775, 797-801
Stock of____________________________________ _ 606, 607, 610, 614, 618-619
Substitutes______________________________________________________ 684-686
Supply o f_________________________________________________________
136,
205, 464, 605-887, 1100, 1140, 1241, 1245, 1251-1252, 1400, 1460,
1496-1500, 1606-1609, 2458, 3034-3042, 3198-3199, 3416-3417.
Time deposits as___________________________________________________
632
“ Tight” ____________________________________________ 154, 1246, 1384-1385,
1415, 2392, 2500, 2531, 2978-2983, 2986-2987
Velocity of_______________________________ 671-699, 1330, 1410, 1457, 2209
Monopoly:
And competition_______________________________________ ____________ 1100
And fair trade_____________________________________________________
2006
And labor unions__________________________________ 2007, 2010, 2628-2653
2119
And level of consumption and development__________ ______________
And unit prices, net profits_________________________________________ 2009
Diminishes output_________________________________________________
2008
Effects of______________________________________________________ 1977-2443
Effects on market performance of entry by outside firms________ 1981-1992
Extent of_____________________________________________________ 1978, 2000
In construction___________________________________________ ________ 2003
In industrial chemicals_____________________________________________
2002
In professional groups______________________________________________ 2003
In service trades_______________________ ___________________________
2003
Relationships between, and employment, price levels, and growth___ 1979,
2001, 2347-2350, 3163, 3165, 3172
Size of firm, monopoly, and economic growth__________________ 2337-2358
Monopsony_________________________________________________________ 576, 1100
Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. of New York, as dealer in Government se
curities_________________________________________________________ 1827-1828,
1832-1833, 1837, 1844, 1846-1847, 1855-1856, 1864, 1872, 1879,
1885, 1895, 1899, 1901, 1909, 1920, 1924, 1930, 1933, 1938, 1953.
Morse, Gerry E., statement of, on personnel practices affecting the mobility
of employees_______________________________________________________ 595-604
Musgrave, Richard A., statement of, on reconciling and attaining economic
objectives_______________________________________________________ 2757-2791
Multiplier_______________________________________________________ 159, 176, 731
Mutual Security Act________________________________________ ___________
979
24
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Page
National Association of Manufacturers, statement of, “ The Emerging
Economic Problems of the 1960’s” . _______________________________ 3187-3216
Export prices expressed in U.S. dollars (chart)______________________ 3213
Net corporate debt (chart)_________________________________________
3208
Ratio of money supply to annual output (chart)____________________
3199
Retained profits in the postwar period (chart)______________________
3206
3201
Trends in unit labor cost (chart)___________________________________
Trends in unit profit (chart)________________________________________ 3202
Wholesale prices in the United States (chart)_______________________
3194
Wholesale price indexes, by sectors (chart)__________________________ 3197
National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, statement of, on reconciling
and attaining economic objectives________________________________ 3217-3223
National Dairy_____________________________________________________ 2020-2021
National Defense Education A ct________________________________________
531
National Economic Council, suggestion for creation o f_______________ 67, 76, 80
National Retail Merchants Association, statement of, on reconciling and
attaining economic objectives____________________________________ 3225-3230
N A T O _________________________________________________________________
979
Naumann, Charles F., statement of, on reconciling and attaining economic
objectives________________________________________________________ 3228-3230
New York Clearing House, turnover of accounts of securities dealers. _ 1405, 1511
New York Hanseatic Corp., as dealer in Government securities__________ 1828,
1833, 1838, 1844, 1847, 1856-1857, 1864, 1872-1873, 1879,
1885-1886, 1895, 1899, 1902, 1909-1910, 1920, 1924, 1930,
1933-1934, 1938, 1953-1954.
New York Stock Exchange______ 1509, 1529, 1559, 1565, 1567, 1647, 1657, 1660
Nordic Common Market____________________________________ ________ 900-901
OEEC_____________________________________________________________ 2913; 2923
Ohlenbusch, John M., statement of, on the Government’s management of
its monetary, fiscal, and debt operations__________________________ 1410-1450
Open-Market Operations. (See Federal Reserve policies.)
Okun, Arthur M., statement of, on monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic
practices_________________________________________________________ 2169-2171
Ornati, Oscar A., statement of, on economic significance of collective
bargaining_____________ _________________________________________ 2543-2582
Output:
As measure of economic growth____________________________________
1089
Expansion of, by curtailing monopoly___ __________________________
2008
Government_______________________________________________________
376
In manufacturing industries, 1955-59 (table)________________________ 2156
Rate and prices of, supply and demand determines_________________
769
Ratio of, to input__________________________________________________
376
Operating rates as percent of capacity (table)_______________________ 3108
Overhead costs per unit of, rising___________________________________
2957
Utilizing capacity______________________________________________ 2322-2323
Patent policy___________________________________________________________
2126
Pierson, Frank C., statement of, on market power of unions___________ 2632-2635
Pensions, effects of inflation on _________________________________________ 13, 160
Pollack, Wm. E. & Co., Inc., as dealer in Government securities___________ 1828,
1833, 1838, 1844, 1847, 1857, 1865, 1873, 1879, 1886, 1895, 1899,
1902, 1910, 1920, 1924, 1930, 1934, 1938, 1954.
Population:
Changes of growth in, and aggregate national product_________ 240, 272, 521
Growth, and economic progress_________________________________ 2397-2400
Growth, and the money supply______________________________________
628
1055
In underdeveloped countries________________________________________
Post Office Department, rates for first-, second-, and third-class mail__ 2502 2503
Power, John H., statement of, on monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic
practices_______________________ _________________________________ 2384-2423
Power. (See Technology.)
President’s Committee on Government Contracts________________________
530
President’s Economic Report. (See Economic Report of the President.)
Prices (see also Inflation):
Administered____________________________________________________ 141-143,
151, 166-167, 180, 216-217, 687, 875, 977, 1311, 2091, 2098,
2237-2324, 2260-2261, 2295-2311, 2393, 2956, 2971-2976,
3165.
CONSOLIDATE© ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
25
Prices— Continued
Page
Aggregate GNP, 1839-1959, current and constant_________________ 232-233
And cost pressures__________________________________________________
687
And depreciation__________________________________________________
2453
And international trade__________________________________________ 1024
And level of taxation_______________________________________________
2459
And other economic developments__________________________________
385
And rate of growth______________________________________________ 409-419
And the equation of exchange______________________________________
672
And wages_____________________________________________ 7, 114, 1029, 3220
Basing point system o f________________________________________ 2091, 2151
Big sweeps in _____________________________________________________ _
407
Changes in, and aggregate national product__________________ 240, 242-243
Changes in, from year to year____________________________________ 402-404
Controlled_________________________________________________________
163
Export (chart)_____________________________________________________
3213
Farm____________________________________________________________ 64, 1637
Fixing_______________________________________________ 70, 2021, 2134-2138
History o f____________________________________________ 381-410, 3193-3204
Increases in, 1955-58_______________________________ 1093, 2453, 2956-2958
Increases in, since 1946_________________________________________ 385, 2169
Increases in wages, salaries, and prices of personal services together
with union and professional practices, effects of, on prices, profits,
production, and employment_________________________________ 2445-2755
Indexes, comparisons o f__________________________________________ 408-409
Industrial wage and price practices_____________________________ 3076-3078
Inflation-deflation pattern in_______________________________________
388
Influences on, of changes in effective supply of money____________ 605-887
In manufacturing industries____________________________________ 2155-2169
Level o f____________________________________ 389, 574-575, 954, 1024, 2170
Retail_________________________________________ 379-384, 389-393, 397-398
Rise in, bottleneck thesis___________________________________________
2170
Rise in, cost of keeping production at maximum____________________
789
Rise of, in nonunionized sector_____________________________________
15
Role of, in the economy_____________________________________ 775, 801-804
Measurement of_______________________________________________ 2270-2272
M onopoly_____________________________________________________ 1977-2443
Secular movement of_____ _________________________________________
407
Target return__________________________ 2260-2261, 2295-2311, 2393, 3165
Trends in___________________________________________________ 380-381, 688
Wholesale_______ 379-389, 394-395, 405, 1484, 1485, 3194, 3197, 3238-3239
Price stability (see also Inflation):
As a goal of public policy_________________________________________ 2, 6-10,
66, 67, 86, 98, 208, 252-253, 405-406, 569-570, 580-584, 2757-3239
And growth rate______________________________________ 2, 6-10, 2158-2169
And international trade____________________________________________
58
And employment________________________________________________ 626-627
Contribution to, by credit unions___________________________________
3177
Future policy needs for________________________________________ 2868, 2960
Preferred environment for_____________________________________ 3376-3377
Purchasing power________________ 96-97, 113, 154-156, 164, 200, 220, 3384
Productivity:
And foreign competition____________________________________________
977
And increases in national product________________________________ 308-312
And inflation_______________________________________________________
171
And the rise in real hourly earnings______________________________ 319-327
And unemployment______________________________________________ 520, 603
Basic facts on____________________________________________________ 283-377
Effects of increases in __________________ 2269, 2829, 2957, 3099-3107, 3220
Fluctuations in______________________________________________ 300-307,576
Government_____________________________________________________ 376-377
Historical and comparative rates of production, productivity, and
prices_________________________________________________________ 229-466
Comparative levels of prices, productivity, and taxation________ 2476-2482
1024
In agricultural products____________________________________________
Indexes of_______________________________________ _____ 348-351, 376, 1640
In individual industries__________________________________________ 313-319
62:808 0—61------3
26
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Productivity— Continued
Page
Impact of nonwage collective bargaining on____________________ 2598-2601
Long-term rate of increase in_____________________________________ 293-300
National product and income_____ ___ ____________________________ 267-279
Organization o f___________________ _______________________________ 254-255
The effect of monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic practices upon
prices, profits, production, and employment________________1977-2443
The effect of increases in wages, salaries, and the prices of personal
services, together with union and professional practices upon prices,
profits, production, and employment_________________________ 2445-2755
Total industrial production__________________________________ 293-300, 387
Trends in________________________________________________________ 149-151,
247, 327-346, 2424
Profits:
Corporate__________________________________________________ 205, 212, 2454
Monopoly_________________________________________ 1977-2443, 3165, 3169
Net, in manufacturing industries, 1955-59 (table)_________________
2156
Of commercial banks, on sale of Government securities._678, 1132-1133,
1136, 1143-1144, 1183, 1237-1241, 1254-1255, 1601-1603, 1651
Rate of, same for all industries_____________________________________
2847
Retained, in postwar period (chart)_________________________________ 3206
The effects of increases in wages, salaries, and the prices of personal
services, together with union and professional practices upon prices,
profits, production, and employment_________________________ 2445-2755
The effects of monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic practices upon
prices, profits, production, and employment__________________ 1977-2443
Trends in unit profit, 1939-58 (chart)_______________________________ 3202
Public opinion :
Campaign against inflation____________________________________ 3258, 3261
Improving public understanding_______________________________ 3078-3079
Influencing, by Government_______ ____________________________ 2974-2975
Persuasion and motivation of consumer tastes__________________ 3163-3165
Public utilities, bonds, ruling by SEC___________________________________
1387
Quantity theory of money___________________ 608, 649-668, 672, 790-792, 1330
Quincey, Charles E., & Co.:
As dealer in Government securities____________________________ 1828-1829,
1833, 1838, 1844, 1847, 1857-1860, 1865, 1873-1874, 1880, 1886,
1895-1896, 1902, 1910-1911, 1920-1921, 1924-1925, 1930, 1934,
1938, 1954-1956.
Statement of, by Maurice A. Gilmartin, Jr_____________________ 1643-1658
Supplementary statement of, on “ bills only” policy_____________ 1956-1965
Randall Commission____________________________________________________
590
Raw materials:
Availability of, to sustain productivity______________________________
374
Complexity of stabilization in______________________________________
893
Exports of, relation to economic development_______________________
892
Imports of, growing dependence upon____i _________________________
972
Protectionism, in the United States_________________________________
893
Recession. (See Business cycles.)
Reciprocal Trade Agreements A ct____________________________________ 64, 1025
Extension act______________________________________________________
998
Regulated industries, exemption from antitrust__________________________ 2038
Repurchase agreements. (See Federal Reserve policies.)
Repp, Herbert N., statement of, for Discount Corp. of New York, on deal
ings in Government securities____________________________________ 1659-1718
Research and development (see also Technology):
Administration emphasis on___________________________________ 1163, 2964
And size of firm__________________________________________ 2341-2345, 2376
By Government________________________ 2345-2347, 2787, 3079-3080, 3160
By very large companies. 2003, 2011-2012, 2099, 2326-2328, 2337-2367, 3160
In the coal industry_____________________ ___________________________ 3235
In the health field__________________________________ 2377-2378, 2901-2902
Rocketry, disastrous lag in_________________________________________
2762
Some statistics on expenditures for_____________________________ 2340-2341
Study on (1953-54)________________________________________________
2327
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
27
Reserves (see also Federal Reserve policies):
Page
“ Free,” as reported weekly by Federal Reserve_____________________
1716
History of reserve ratios of member banks__________________________
1317
Initial reserve payments made from member banks’ own vaults and
through correspondent banks (table)_________________________ 3428-3429
No actual, in Federal Reserve Bank of New Y ork__________________
1650
One-hundred percent reserve system (Fisher)________ 1459, 3032, 3047-3050
“ Sources and Uses of Member Bank Reserves, 1914-52” (Smith) __ 1300-1306
Vault-cash amendment___________________________________ 1313, 1410, 3050
Resources:
And productivity________________________________________________ 309-312
Efficient use o f_____________________________________ 4, 22, 96, 119, 249, 687,
973, 974, 981, 1090-1091, 1146, 2009, 2333, 2797, 3160-3161
Federal development o f____________________________________________
129
Natural_______________________________________________________ 3139-3141
National fuels policy, suggestion for____________________________ 3232-3235
Pressures on, in time of war________________________________________
136
Rich, D. W. & Co., Inc., as dealer in Government securities_____________ 1829,
1833, 1840, 1844, 1847, 1860, 1866, 1874, 1880, 1887, 1897, 1899,
1902, 1911, 1921, 1926, 1930, 1934, 1939, 1956.
Robinson-Patman A ct____ _____________ 2011-2097, 2120, 2124, 2137, 2147-2148
Ross, Arthur, “ Do We Have New Industrial Feudalism?” _______________
588
Rottenberg, Simon, statement of, on underdeveloped areas__________ 1066-1071
Rouse, Robert G., statement of, on Federal Reserve open-market opera
tions_____________________________________________________________ 1507-1557
Ruggles, Richard, statement of, on monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic
practices_________________________________________________________ 2266-2294
Russia. (See U.S.S.R.)
Salaries. (See Wages.)
Salomon Bros. & Hutzler:
As dealer in Government securities____________________________ 1830, 1833,
1840, 1844, 1847-1848, 1860, 1866, 1874, 1880, 1887, 1896-1897,
1899-1900, 1902, 1911, 1921, 1926, 1930, 1935, 1939, 1956-1957.
Supplementary statement o f________________________________________ 1974
Savings:
And economic growth_________________________ _______________ 1092, 3160
And increase in interest rates-_ 1375, 1515, 1517, 1572, 3255-3256, 3355-3358
And inflation_________________________________ 12, 57, 83, 1162, 3370-3372
And the market for loanable funds_______________________________ 848-887
Bonds, and the debt_______________ 173-174, 211, 222, 676-679, 1146, 1513
Comparison of interest rates and various measures of consumer saving
(table)___________________________________________________________ 3356
Competition for____________ _______________________ 1101, 1180, 1753-1757
Equity in, of small investor___________ _____________ 2759-2760, 2784-2785
Full employment, output ratio______________________________________ 2389
Increasing flow o f______________________________________________ 3219-3220
In the form of real cash balances_________________________________ 629-631
Investment as determinant o f______________________________________
12
Marginal propensitv to save____________________________________ 772, 2765
Personal__________ 1 _______________________ 5, 203, 207, 772, 848-887, 2765
Schmidt, Wilson E., statement of, on the recent deficit in U.S. balance of
payments__________________________________________________________ 945-950
Schools:
Declining productivity of______________________________________ 2681-2682
Financing_____________________________________________________ 2683-2701
Public_________________________________________________________ 2671-2701
Expenditures for_______________________________________________ 2672-2676
Schultz, Charles L., statement of, on monopolistic and quasi-monopolistic
practices_________________________________________________________ 2172-2205
Science and Technology. (See Technology.)
Scitovsky, Tibor, statement of, on the Common Market____________ 1037-1051
Securities (see also Government Securities):
Investment in, stocks versus bonds_____________________________ 3254-3255
Foreign, purchases o f_______________________________________ 946, 952, 955
Primary, channels through which sold____________________________ 847-848
Segal, Martin, statement of, on market power of unions_____________ 2635-2640
Selden, Richard T., statement of, on the behavior of money__ 671-699
Plus reprint of “ Cost-Push Versus Demand-Pull Inflation, 1955-57” _ 700-719
28
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Page
Seniority of employees (see also Labor, mobility o f)______________________
597,
600-601, 2586-2587, 2614-2620
Service sector:
Expenditures for services, by category (table)_______________________ 2661
Longrun trends in, and relationship to inflation and growth_____ 2655-2661
Manpower aspects of__________________________________________ 2661-2670
Opportunities in, for displaced workers_____________________________
173
Prices of services (tables)______________________________________ 2660-2661
Public services, neglect of______________________________________ 3132-3143
Public schools, longrun trends in _______________________________ 2671-2701
Shifts in employment to ____________________________________________
474
Unionism in________________________________________________________ 34-35
Women in _________ ________________________________________________
505
Shepherd, B. E., statement of______________________________________ 3185-3186
Sherman A ct____________________ 2011, 2019, 2022, 2027, 2120, 2121, 2123-2124
Shoe machinery________________________________________________________
2027
Shopping centers, financing of___________________________________________ 1439
Shuman, Charles B., letter transmitting views of American Farm Bureau
Federation___________________________________________________________
3081
Sienkiewicz, Casimir A.:
Letter transmitting views of American Bankers Association, “ Policies
for Prosperity Without Inflation” ________________________________
3055
Letter to chairman, commenting on staff report on the study of em
ployment growth and price levels___________________ _________ 3483-3484
Silbert, Myron S., statement of, on quality of system of measurements of
labor conditions____________________ _______________________________ 527-538
Slichter, Sumner H.:
Statement of, on problems and prospects of the American economy __ 2-55
Tribute to, by colleagues and committee members______________ 2515-2516
Smithies, Arthur, statement of, on effects of monopolistic practices.- 2423-2428
Social security__________________________________________________ 119, 598, 3235
Soviet. (See U.S.S.R.)
Spencer, Girard L., statement of, on Government securities, open market
operations_______________________________________________________ 1558-1576
Stability. (See Price stability.)
Stock market securities, dealers in, rate of turnover of_________________ 676-679
Stieber, Jack, statement of, on nonwage aspects of collective bargain
ing______________________________________________________________ 2597-2628
Stokely-Van Camp_____________________________________________________
2028
Stoltz, Merton P., statement of, on structural unemployment_______ 2707-2732
Straus report___________________________________________________________
917
Subsidies_____________ 50-55, 76, 1448, 1599, 2231-2232, 3037-3040, 3165-3166
Suits, Daniel B., statement of, on econometric models as guides to pub
lic policy________________________________________________________ 2492-2513
Supply and demand, law o f_________________________________________ 2166-2167
Taft, Philip, statement of, on structural unemployment_____________ 2707-2732
Tapp, Jesse W., letter to chairman commenting on staff report on “ study
of employment, growth and price levels” _________________________ 3484-3486
Tariffs:
Agricultural protectionism in Europe___________________________ 1020-1022
Elimination o f____ ______________________________________________ 993,2216
European external____________________________________ 895, 998, 1045-1048
Higher, appeals by labor for______________________________ 2784, 2789, 2812
On imports of foreign autos_______________________________________ 24, 981
Protective_________________________________________ 371-372, 893-895, 2963
Reduction o f____________________________________________________ 21-22, 64
Versus quotas as import-curtailing devices__ ____________________ 899, 1027
Tax (see also Fiscal p olicy):
Capital gains____ . ________________________ 223, 519, 2462, 2807, 3004, 3183
Concessions_____________________________________________ 898-899, 978, 980
Corporate, and inflation____________________________________________
2460
Credits on percentage basis (Curtis-Ikard bill)______________________ 2803
Depreciation allowance_______________________________ ___ 2512, 3000-30Q2
Estate_____________________________________________________________
3227
Excise__________________________________________________ _ 3010-3011,3227
Exemption______________________________________________________ 265, 1534
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
29
Tax— Continued
Pa£®
Gasoline___________________________________________________________
1476
Herlong-Sadlak bill________________________________________________
2796
Income:
Averaging o f___________________________________________________ 3183
And excise, effect on economy o f_______________________________ 3227
Personal, formula flexibility_______________________________ 2880-2881
Split__________________ - _____________________________ 3008,3011-3012
Loopholes__________________________________________ 1374,1476,2507,2511
Maximum safe limit o f________________________ 2446, 2459, 2491, 2503-2506
Measure of fiscal policy_________________________________ 100-102, 119, 167
On dividends and interest______________________________________ 3007, 3183
Percentage depletion_______________________________________________
3003
Policies_________________________________ 3086-3087, 3109-3110, 3152-3155
Rate necessary for rivaling Russian military strength_______________
4
Reduction__________________________________________________________ 1145
Reforms________________________________________________ 19-20, 65-66, 154
Selective_______________________________________________________ 2193, 2807
“ Single” __________________________________________________________ - 2472
Structure_____________________________________________ 370-371, 2999, 3065
System_____________________________________________ 1092, 1372, 2794-2817
Withholding___________________________________________________ 1206-1208
Taylor, George Rogers, statement of, on prices, wholesale and retail__ 379-384
Taylor, George W., statement of, on economics of working conditions. 2588-2597
Technology:
And increased output per man (1864-79)_________________________ 386-387
And productivity________________________________________ 363, 367, 777-778
And science:
Acceleration of rate of development o f_________________________
255
Effect on longrun growth rate__________________________________ 4, 155
Effect on unemployment_______________________________________
33,
473, 480, 525, 539, 549-550, 596, 2741-2742, 3170, 3226-3227
Automation________________ 88, 263, 549-550, 597, 360, 362, 1653, 3226-3227
Gap in, between United States and Europe_______________________ 952, 956
Innovation:
Loss of, by management. _______________________________________
977
M onopoly_________________________________________________ 1979-2089
Technological, and free markets________________________________ 1018
Innovation and foreign competition_________________________________
982
Innovation and growth rate______________________________________ 250-251,
1089-1091, 1163-1164, 2573-2574, 2970-2971, 3170
Inventions:
Hamberg list o f________________________________________________ 2355
Jewkes list o f____*_____________________________________________
2354
Sources o f _________________________________________________ 2339-2340
Power (see also Resources)____________________________________ .___ 366-368
Resistance t o ______________________________________________ 387,2162,2169
Teper, Lazare:
Letter of, to Otto Eckstein on Study Paper No. 2, “ Steel and the
Postwar Inflation” ___________________________________________ 3480-3482
Mr. Eckstein’s reply___________________________________________ 3482-3483
Time deposits:
Interest rate ceiling on __________________________________________ 854, 3030
Mechanism for restraining growth of________________________________
876
Of commercial banks:
Included in definition of m oney________________________________
632
Nonmonetary intermediary in money and credit markets_____ 848-852
Time periods, for composite index of wholesale commodity prices________
380
Trade (see also Competition):
And aid_____________________________________________________ 905-906, 977
Common Market. (See separate entry.)
Development Loan Fund________________________________________ 905, 2936
European Economic Community. (See separate entry.)
Export-Import Bank. (See separate entry.)
“ Fair” ___________________________________________________ 2003,2006,2147
Foreign, barriers t o ____________________________________________ 2003, 2963
Free trade area_________________________________________________ 895, 1003
30
CONSOLIDATE© ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
Trade— Continued
GATT. (See separate entry.)
Page
International_________ 42-43, 48-49, 219-220, 250, 371-372, 2814-2817, 3028
International balance of payments. (See Balance of payments.)
International Central Bank____________________________________ 2938-2945
International Cooperation Administration. (See separate entry.)
International Development Authority. (See separate entry.)
International influences on the American economy_______________ 889-1086
International Monetary Fund. (See separate entry.)
Reciprocal Trade Agreements A ct___________________________ 64, 998, 1025
Relations, American-Japanese______________________________________
902
Relations, East-West__________ _____________________________________
891
Relations, Japanese-Chinese______________________________________ 902-903
Restrictions. (See Tariffs.)
998
Trade Agreements Extension Act___________________________________
Types and size of foreign transactions____________________________ 940-943
U.S., and economic growth of underdeveloped areas_________________ 1054
U.S., surplus on, and current account, 1950-58 (chart)______________
968
World Bank________________________________________________________
905
World markets (see also Markets)_______________________ 374-375, 947, 952
Trademark, protection of___________________________________________ 2022-2026
Transfer payments__________________________________________ 119, 124, 132, 968
Treasury, U.S.:
Advisory committees___________________ 1441, 1695-1697, 3280, 3284-3290
Anderson, Hon. Robert B., statement of, on debt management oper
ations_______________________________________________________ 1087-1230
Anderson, Hon. Robert B., questions submitted to and answers by__ 11851189, 1719-1760, 3241-3344
“ Bills only” policy, questions on____________________________________ 1189
Cash balances o f___________________________________ 3317-3318, 3325-3332
Federal Reserve study (joint statement on Government securities
market)_____________________________________________________ 1209-1221
Further references to study_____________ 1088, 1094-1095, 1517, 1525,
1^33, 1539, 1542, 1546, 1578, 1585, 1645, 1647, 1658-1659
Financing and debt management policies in perspective_____ ___ 1339-1351
Gold purchases by, from foreign central banks__________________ 3414-3416
Influence of, on interest rates_________________ 1095, 1099, 1101, 3277-3278
Meetings of, with American Bankers Association____ 1168-1170, 1225-1230
Open market operations proposed for_______________________________ 2768
Relations of, with Federal Reserve_____________________________ 1135, 2963
Treaty of Rome_____________________________________ 992-993, 1020-1022, 1045
Triffin, Robert:
Statement of, on the international monetary position of the United
States______________________ ______________________________ 2905-2917
The gold shortage, the dollar glut, and the future of convertibility- 2918-2954
Tripartite agreement____________________ _________________________ ^_____ 2953
Underdeveloped areas (see also Economic development):
And the U.S. econom y_________________________ _______________ 1052-1086
International Development Authority______________________ 916, 920, 2907
Unemployment:
Areas, distressed_____________ 535-537, 589-591, 602-604, 1440, 2611, 2718
As antiinflationary measure_________________________________________ 2758
And budget deficits________________________________________________ 20, 83
And Federal Reserve policy_______________________________________ 38, 855
And inflation___________________________________________ 170-171,201-202
And minority groups________________________________________ 529-530, 542
And redistribution of wealth______________________________________ - 2873
And reduction of tariffs__________________________________________ 22
Classical_______________________________________________________ ____
770
Compensation______________________________________________________
88,
132, 201, 519, 533, 547, 599, 2723, 2758, 2880, 3074, 3235
Cyclical____________________________________________ 501-503, 581-582, 603
Effect on, of recession______________________________ 474-476, 516, 519, 524
Effect on, of wage rise_______________________________________ 8, 2549-2550
Forms o f___________________________ _____________________________
2703
Frictional______________ 33, 472-473, 539, 540, 687, 2773-2774, 2809, 2899
Full time equivalent of part time___________________________________
157,
499, 512-513, 532-534, 545, 551-553, 568-569
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
31
Unemployment— Continued
Page
Growth o f_________________________________________________ 532-533, 2452
Historical and comparative rates of labor force, employment, and
unemployment________________________________________________ 467-604
Index, need for__________________________________________ 2759, 2772-2775
Keynes, quoted on_________________________________________________
770
Level o f_________________________________________________________ 107, 503
Of coal miners________ ____________________________________________
3231
Rate of, among young people__________________________________ 3, 505- 506
Rate of, maximum tolerated____________ 2216, 2311-2313, 2775-2777, 2975
Reduction o f_________________________________________________ 28, 164, 215
Remedies for____________________________________________ 3232, 3238, 3383
At the State level______________________________________ ^_____ 2723
Seasonal____________________________________________________ 570-571, 581
479
Short term__________________________________________ ______________
Structural, extent, causes, remedies____________________________ 2703-2732
Technological______________________________________________ 571, 581, 3170
United Mine Workers of America, statement of, on achieving maximum
employment, an adequate rate of growth, and reasonable stability in
the price level____________________________________________________ 3231-3239
United States Steel_____________________________________ 2011, 2090-2091, 2102
United Shoe C o________________________________________________________
2027
Ulman, Lloyd:
Statement of, on negotiation of wages under collective agree
ments. _ ___________________________________________________ 2556-2567
Tribute to Sumner H. Slichter_________________________________ 2515-2516
U.S. balance of payments. (See Balance of payments.)
U.S.S.R.:
Cultural conflict___________________________________________________
4
Economic aid_____________________________________ ______________ 903-905
Economic competition______________________________________________
520
Economic system___________________________________________________
200
Rate of growth o f____________ 250-251, 2456, 2473-2482, 2792, 2886, 3164
The gold standard_______________________________________________ 626, 988
Velocity (see also Money, quantity theory of money):
Aggregate___________________________________________________ 690-691, 695
As center of postwar inflation______________________________________
682
And savings_____________________________________________________ 629-630
Cyclical behavior of______________________________________________ 694-695
Determinants of________________________________________ 693-695, 722-725
Digression on theory o f__________________________________________ 706—707
Effect of increase in quantity of money on________________________ 790-792
Of circulation____________________________________________________ 671-699
Of money within particular groups__________________________________
676
Ratio between a flow of payments to a stock of money____________
693
Reasons for postwar rise in_______________________________________ 697-698
Sector____________________________________ ______________________ 691,695
Voorhis, Jerry, statement of, for Cooperative League of the U.o.A., on
reconciling economic objectives___________________________________ 3163-3180
Wages:
Aggressive increases in___________________________________ 2826-2831, 2844
Average, statistics of___________________________________________ 498, 2639
Average annual earnings_______________________________________ 2522, 2526
And collective bargaining_______________________________________ 2516-2628
And inflation___________________________ 2190-2193, 2206-2207, 2211, 3226
And labor mobility______________________________________________ 592-594
And prices, public policy for_______ 119, 2556, 2743-2755, 2768-2769, 3220
Changes in, in manufacturing industries, 1955-59 (chart)___________
2156
Compensation of employees (charts)_________________________________
7,
44, 205, 2522, 2523, 2424-2527, 2547-2550
Deficit in, 1953-58 (chart)______________________________________ 109, 171
Effect of, on short-run growth______________________________________
6, 7
Fringe benefits.-3 3 0 -3 3 1 , 365, 373, 532, 589, 592-593, 596-600, 2583-2628
In Europe_______________________________________________________ 953-954
Minimum_______________________________________________________ 132, 507
Real hourly_______________________________________ 319-327, 360-363, 390
Real weekly_______________________________________________________
391
32
CONSOLIDATED ALPHABETICAL INDEX TO HEARINGS
W ages— C ontinu ed
Page
Stability of, and union democracy_____________________________ 2739-2741
Theory of (Douglas)_______________________________ 361, 540, 556, 571, 583
361
Trends in__________________________________________________________
Wage and salary jobs (table)_______________________________________
3104
Wage earner— who is?______________________________________________
507
War (see also Defense):
Financing World War I I __________________________________________ 138,152
Fluctuations in labor force during___________________________ 541-543, 560
Price and growth trends during:
American Revolution______________________________ 381-383, 388, 390
Civil War_______________________ 380, 383-388, 407, 409, 418-419, 428
Korean war_______________________________________ 405-408, 473, 516, 560
Napoleonic Wars______________________ _____________________ 384, 407-408
War of 1812________________________________________________ 383, 389, 407
World War I _____________________________ 383, 388, 405, 413, 421-423, 501
World War II____ 385, 389-390, 405, 461-462, 480, 516, 541, 557, 573, 576
Transition to peace__________________________ _______________ 132-138, 161
Wealth:
Measured in real terms_____________________________________________
776
Some forms o f_____________________________________________________
631
Total U.S__________________________________________________________
630
“ Web” chart, interlocking directors, Discount Corp., with New York
banks____________________________________________________________ 1672-1673
Webb-Pomerene A ct____________________________________________________ 2121
Weston, J. Frederick, statement of, on monopolistic and qijasi-monopolistic practices___________________________________________________ 2294-2300
Withholding tax. (See Taxes.)
World Bank____________________________________________________________
905
EMPLOYMENT, GROWTH, AND PRICE LEVELS
Hearings Before the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the
United States, 1959
INDEX TO HEARINGS
PART 1—THE AMERICAN ECONOMY: PROBLEMS AND PROS- Page
PECTS.................... ............................................................................ 1-228
WITNESSES IN OR D E R OF APPEARAN CE
Sumner H. Slichter, Harvard University.......... .................................................
Neil H. Jacoby, professor and dean, Graduate School of Business Adminis
tration, University of California, Los Angeles..............................................
Leon H. Keyserling, former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers;
consulting economist and attorney; and President, Conference on
Economic Progress........ ............................. - .....................................................
Marriner S. Eccles, chairman, First Securities Corp., Utah, formerly
Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System________
STATEM ENTS AND E X H IB IT S
Eccles, Marriner S., chairman, First Securities Corp., Utah, former
Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System________
Jacoby, Neil H., professor and dean, Graduate School of Business Adminis
tration. University of California, Los Angeles............. ................................
Exhibit: Relationship of price and source structure, monetary-fiscal
policy, and rate of real economic growth____ _____________________
Keyserling, Leon H., former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers;
consulting economist and attorney; and President, Conference on
Economic Progress___________________________________________________
Exhibits:
x
Aggregate difference in economic activity— 1958-64 as a whole—
between high and low growth rates---------------------------------------Aggregate difference in income, 1958-64 as a whole, between high
and low growth rates_____ ___________________________________
Averages and average changes for selected economic indicators,
various periods—arithmetic average of annual percentage
changes, selected periods__________________________ _____ ____
Budgetary outlays and the public debt in relation to GNP—
1953-58 and projected 1960 and 1964 goals__________________
Consumer prices continued to rise throughout the recession,
consumer price increases, September 1957 to June 1958_______
Consumption lagged behind investment in means of production,
1953-57 and 1955-57_____ __________________________________
Deficiency in consumption is our basic economic trouble________
Deficits in GNP and components, 1947-53 and 1953-58________
Deficits in personal income 1947-58____________________________
Differences between low* and high growth rates— employment,
unemployment, G N P ________________________________________
Differences between low and high growth rates— GNP and com*
ponents____ ___________________________________ _____________
Differences between low and high growth rates— GNP, national
income, personal income_____________________________________
Differences between low and high growth rates— personal income.
Downturn in heavy industries accompanied by price hikes,
changes in production and in wholesale prices, January 1957 to
June 1958___________________________________ _______________
During period 1929-58, most inflation due to war— average annual
change in prices_____________________________________________
During relatively full prosperity productivity rose as rapidly as
average hourly wage rates— but when the economy was slack,
productivity gains slowed down— and when recession developed,
productivity was hard hit and wage rates moved slower_______
Economic growth needed for economic health.................................
33
2
55
93
199
199
55
61
93
122
123
183
195
145
115
116
185
186
188
189
190
191
145
133
150
107
34
INDEX TO HEARINGS
Keyserling, Leon H., former Chairman—Continued
Exhibits—Continued
Economic trends during first years of the Korean war, 1949-51
(prices, production, and employment, and Government expenditures and private money supply)............ - _____ __________
139
Economic trends during reconversion, 1945-48 (prices, production,
and employment, and Government expenditures and private
money supply)--------- --------- ----------- -------- - - -------- ------ -------- 137
Economic trends during the period of “ the new inflation/11952-58
(prices, production, and employment, and Government expendi
140
tures and private money supply)..........- -------- ------------------------Economic trends during World War II, 1939-45 (prices, produc
tion, and employment, and Government expenditures and
private money supply)_______________________________________
135
F arm ed income deficiency as part of consumer-income deficiency.
118
Federal budget as percent of total national production (G N P )__
127
Federal conventional budget— actual fiscal 1955-60 and goals for
calendar 1960 and 1964___............................. .................. ................
193
Federal outlays should be geared to growing needs and capa
bilities_______________________________________________________
129
Goals for full prosperity, 1960 and 1964, 1960 and 1964 goals
compared with estimated 1958_______________________________
125
Goals for total Federal budget with expansion to meet main needs.
126
Gross national product: Actual 1953-57, estimated 1958, and
goals for 1960 and 1964.....................................................................
187
Growth rates, U.S. economy, 1920-58— average annual rates of
change in gross national product_____________________________
105
High growth rate, 1958-64, would yield $400 billion] more total
production than low ra te .____ . ______________________________
121
High growth rate would provide employment for many more
people.......... ........................................ — ..............— ......................
121
Inflation of wholesale prices severest among giant industries—
and the bigger price jumps have yielded high profits_________
144
Large losses to all economic groups------------------------------------------109
Large national economic deficits during 6-year period, 1953-58. .
109
National debt as percent of total national production (G N P )____
127
$152 billion lag in total economic activity, 1953-58, stunted vital
domestic programs and defense ._ ................... ................................
Ill
Our productivity— the average output per man-hour— is rising
at a faster r a te ._____________________________________________
149
Personal income, disposable income, and saving, actual 1953-57,
estimated 1958, and goals for 1960 and 1964______________ ___
192
Price increases brought big profits______________________________
142
Production has lagged_________________________________________
107
Proposed calendar 1960 and 1964 budgetary outlays, compared
with fiscal 1954-59, 1959, and 1 9 6 0 ................................ ............
194
Selected economic indicators and their year-to-year change,
1929-58___________________________________________________ 181, 182
Summary of budget expenditures, per capita (1957 dollars) and
as percent of GNP— total, national security and selected wel
196
fare items___________________________________________________
Supplv of GNP— actual 1956-57, estimated 1958, and goals for
I960 and 1964_____________________________________ ______ _
188
“ The new inflation” after 1955— average annual change in
prices_______________________________________________________
133
“ True” unemployment, 1953-58_______________________________
184
Unemployment has risen_______________________________________
107
Wage and salary deficiency as part of consumer income deficiency.
118
Wage increases needed to expand consumption, lagged far behind
investment in means of production, first quarter 1956 to third
quarter 1957 in current dollars_______________________________
148
Wage increases needed to expand consumption, lagged far behind
profits feeding investment boom, first three quarters 1956, to
first three quarters 1957, in current dollars__________________
147
We have the productive resources for full economic expansion—
1960 and 1964 goals compared with estimated 1958__________
120
INDEX TO HEARINGS
Keyserling, Leon H., former Chairman— Continued
Exhibits— Continued
When sales of some big concerns rose rapidly, they lifted prices
instead of holding them stead}', percentage increase in sales of
large corporations and in wholesale prices in these industries,
first half of 1956 to first half of 1957— but emerging production
slowdown did not bring price restraint_______________________
Slichter, Sumner H., Harvard University-----------------------------------------------Exhibits:
Changes in compensation of employees per man-hour in private
industry, changes in real product per man-hour, and changes
in prices during the last 11 years____________________________
Comparison of the consumer price index, 1948-53 and 1953-57.Comparison of unemployment rates among young males in
several recent Januarys______________________________________
Increase in the consumer price level and increase in real product
per capita in 15 countries_____ ______________________________
35
Page
146
2
7
12
3
11
A D DITIO N AL IN FORM ATION
Maximum monthly dollar benefits and benefits adjusted for price increases
for a single retired worker____________________________________________
Wage earners now receive record share of U.S. income, article in the
Birmingham News, March 18, 1959___________________________________
Your money’s worth: Social Security “ Illusion,” article in the Washington
Star, March 16, 1959__________________________________________________
52
46
52
PART 2—HISTORICAL AND COMPARATIVE RATES OF PRODUC
TION, PRODUCTIVITY, AND PRICES................................... 229-466
WITNESSES IN ORDER OF APPEARANCE
Raymond W. Goldsmith, professor of economics, New York University. _
Solomon Fabricant, director of research, National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc., and professor of economics, New York University______
George Rogers Taylor, professor of economics, Amherst College, and
chairman, Council of Research in Economic History__________________
Ethel D. Hoover, Chief of the Commodities and Services Branch, Bureau
of Labor Statistics____________________________________________________
Moses Abramovitz, National Bureau of Economic Research, and professor
of economics, Stanford University____________________________________
230
281
379
384
411
STATEM ENTS AND E XH IBITS
Abramovitz, Moses, National Bureau of Economic Research, and professor
of economics, Stanford University_____________________________________
Exhibits:
Additions to the total labor force, Immigration and nonfarm
unemployment rates; average reference-cycle standings, 18711955___________ ____________________________________________
Amplitude of long swings in rates of growth of GNP and its major
components, 1871-1950________________________________ _____
Amplitude of long swings in rates of growth of physical output,
total input and productivity, 1892-1953_____________________
Changes in natural increase, net immigration and total population
increase, overlapping decades, 1877-1947____________________
Chronology of severe contractions compared with peaks and
troughs of long swings in capital formation__________________
Chronology of the peaks and troughs in five basic aspects of the
long swings in economic growth_____________________________
Gross capital formation and its components (1929 prices) average
reference-cycle standings, 1 8 7 1 -1 9 5 1 _______ _______________
Gross national product in 1929 prices, 1869-1953; annual data and
average reference-cycle standings____________________________
411
449
436
439
448
439
440
451
441
36
INDEX TO HEARINGS
Abramovitz, Moses, National Bureau of Economic Research— Continued
Exhibits— Continued
Gross national product in 1929 prices; rates of growth per annum Page
between average reference-cycle standings_______________ _—
442
Immigrants from all countries; average reference-cvcle standings,
182^-81____________________________ __________1_____________
450
Net additions to population by nativity and net immigration,
overlapping decades, 1875-1950______________________________
447
Output, input and productivity, rates of growth per annum
between average reference-cycle standings, 1892-1953-----------453
Peaks and troughs in the rate of growth, economic activity and
in the volume of additions to capital stock:
Pre-Civil War period______________________________________
437
438
Post-Civil War period___ _________________________________
Peaks and troughs of long swings in the rate of growth of output
and economic activity— duration of the long swings, 1815-1940435
Peaks and troughs of long swings in the rates of growth of output,
input and productivity, 1892-1953---------------------------------------439
Rate of growth of economic activity— peaks and troughs of rates
of change between average reference-cycle standings, selected
series:
1860-1948________________________________________________
434
435
1800-1860_______ ________________ _______ ______ — *_____
Relative timing of peaks and troughs of long swings in rate of
growth of economic activity or output— additions to total labor
force and immigration, 1846-1940..................................................
437
Residential construction and capital expenditures by railroads and
public utilities (1929 prices) and additions to population, aver
age reference-cycle standings, 1871-1955......................... ............
452
Selected indicators of economic activity, 1860-1950; rates of
growth per annum between average reference-cycle standings. .
443
Share of changes in net immigration and natural increase in
changes in total population increase, overlapping decades,
1870-1955....................... ....................................................................
436
Fabricant, Solomon, director of research, National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc., and professor of economics, New York University______
281
Exhibits:
Basic Facts on Productivity Change, Occasional Paper 63 of the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc_________________
283
Hours per week per worker— 33 industries of the United States—
percentage change from 1899 to 1953_________________________
346
Persons engaged— 11 major industrial groups of the United
States— 1889-1957............................................. ............................ 343,344
Physical output— five major industrial groups of the United
States— 1889-1953 or 1957„__„______________________________
342
Physical output—-persons engaged and real tangible capital used—
33 industries o f the United States— percentage change from
1899 to 1953................................. ..................- ..................................
341
Productivity— 33 industries of the United States— percentage
change from 1899 to 1953.................................................................
340
Real tangible capital used— five major industrial groups of the
United States, 1889-1953..................... ............................................
345
Goldsmith, Raymond W., professor of economics, New York University___
230
Exhibits: ^
Aggregate gross national product, current and constant (1929)
prices......... .......................................... ................................................
232
Contribution of growth of prices, population and real GNP per
head to growth of aggregate current G N P ___________________
241
260
Debt-asset ratios____________ _________________________________
Main national accounting aggregates and their components, 1957.
248
Personal consumption expenditures (1929 prices) aggregate and per
full consumer________________________________________________
236
Real gross national product (1929 prices) aggregate and per head- _
234
Secular growth of real national income per head in United States
and Great Britain (1929 prices)____ ______ _____________ _____
245
Trend in real gross national product per head, 1839-1959 (5-year
moving averages)____________________________________________
238
INDEX
TO HEARINGS
37
Goldsmith, Raymond W., professor of economics— Continued
Exhibits— Continued
Trend of gross national product and personal consumption, Page
1839-1959 (percent increase per year)________________________
271
Hoover, Ethel D., Chief of the Commodities and Services Branch, Bureau of
Labor Statistics______________________________________________________
384
Exhibits:
Consumer Price Index, 1800-1958, preliminary_________________
397
Consumer price indexes______________ ._________________________
393
Indexes of wholesale prices, estimated for the United States,
1720-1958, and for five important markets, 1720-1890_______
394
Percent changes for retail and wholesale prices_________________
390
Price changes from year to year_____________________________ 402-404
Tentative reference dates of business cycles in the United States. _
398
Wholesale and consumer prices, 1800-1958_____________________
397
Wholesale price index, 1720-1958 and consumer price index,
1800—1958______________ _______________________________ Facing 394
Wholesale prices in 5 U.S. markets, 1720-1861____________ Facing 394
Wholesale price indexes________ _______________________________
393
Taylor, George Rogers, professor of economics, Amherst College, and chair
man, Council of Research in Economic History________________________
397
Exhibits. (See exhibits of Ethel D. Hoover.)
PART 3—HISTORICAL AND COMPARATIVE RATES OF LABOR
FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT............. 467-604
WITNESSES IN O RDER OF APPEARAN CE
10wan Clague, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (accom
panied by Robert Pearl, Chief of Economic Statistics Branch, Popula
tion Division, Census Bureau; Louis Levine, Assistant Director for Pro
gram, Bureau of Employment Security; and Harold Goldstein, Assistant
Chief, Division of Manpower and Employment Statistics, Bureau of
Labor Statistics)_____________________________________________________
Peter Henle, assistant director of research, A F L -C IO ___________________
Myron S. Silbert, vice president of Federated Department Stores, Cin
cinnati, Ohio (also chairman, Committee on Manpower and Employ
ment Statistics, Business Research Advisory Counsel to U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics)_____________________________________________________
Clarence D. Long, professor of economics, the Johns Hopkins University.Stanley Lebergott, Bureau of the Budget, on leave______________________
Joseph Childs, vice president, International Union, United Rubber, Cork,
Linoleum, and Plastic Workers of America, A F L -C IO _______________
Gerry E. Morse, vice president, Industrial Relations, Minneapolis-Honeywell Corp_____________________________________________________________
467
511
527
539
567
587
595
STATEM ENTS AND E XH IBITS
Childs, Joseph, vice president, International Union, United Rubber, Cork,
Linoleum, and Plastic Workers of America, A F L -C IO -----------------------Clague, Ewan, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (accom
panied by Robert Pearl, Chief of Economic Statistics Branch, Popula
tion Division, Census Bureau; Louis Levine, Assistant Director for Pro
gram, Bureau of Employment Security; and Harold Goldstein, Assistant
Chief, Division of Manpower and Employment Statistics, Bureau of
Labor Statistics)__ __________________________________________________
Exhibits:
Average family size and average number of children under 18,
by family type, for the United States, 1947-58---------------------Comparison of actual and projected total labor force, annual
average, 1950-58_____________________________________________
Employment and hours of work in manufacturing industries,
seasonally adjusted, January 1948 to date___________________
Employment in goods-producing industries compared with em
ployment in service industries, annual averages, 1919-58------Employment in three postwar recessions, selected industries,
seasonally adjusted__________________________________________
587
467
518
485
493
486
490
Clague, Ewan, etc.— Continued
Exhibits— Continued
Growing proportions of white-collar workers in major industries,
1947 and 1957, nonproduction or supervisory workers as a
percent of total employed____________________________________
Increasing family size and family incomes_____________________
Levels and percent changes in per capita income from 1947 to
1957 (in current dollars) for family persons and other individ
uals in the United States___________________________________
Long-term unemployment in three recessions, persons unem
ployed 15 weeks or more____________________________________
Nonagricultural employment, seasonally adjusted, January
1948 to date_________________________________________________
Persons unemployed 15 weeks or more bv age and sex, March
1957, 1958, and 1959_________________________________________
Persons unemployed 15 weeks or more by color and sex, March
1957, 1958, and 1959_________________________________________
Persons unemployed 15 weeks or more by industry, March 1957,
1958, and 1959______________________________________________
Persons unemployed 15 weeks or more by major occupation
group, March 1958 and 1959_________________________________
Production and nonproduction workers in manufacturing, season
ally adjusted, January 1948 to date__________________________
Total and long-term unemployment, 11 months after trough in
3 postwar recessions_________________________________________
Unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor foree, seasonally
adjusted, 1948-50, 1953-55, and 1957 to date________________
Unemployment by age and sex, March 1957, 1958, and 1959_____
Unemployment by color and sex, March 1957, 1958, and 1959____
Unemployment by industry, March 1957, 1958, and 1959_______
Unemployment by major occupation group, March 1958 and
1959__._____________________________________________________
Unemployment by marital status, March 1957, 1958, and 1959..
Unemployment by weeks of duration, March 1957, 1958, and
1959________________________________________________________
Henle, Peter, assistant director of research, A F L -C IO ___________________
Exhibits:
Seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment_____________________
Total and percent unemployed, March 1957, 1958, and 1959_____
Wage and salary jobs in nonagricultural establishments, season
ally adjusted________________________________________________
Lebergott, Stanley, Bureau of the Budget, on leave______________________
Exhibits:
Business declines 1837-1915 (ranked by relief load rise), per
centage changes in______________________ ____________________
Business dollar declines 1900-54 (ranked by unemployment rises),
percentage change___________________________________________
Long, Clarence D., professor of economics, the Johns Hopkins University. .
Exhibits:
Association between labor force participation rates of females
and males: 5 countries, various years, 1890-1951_____________
Germany, including the Saar, Austria, and the Sudetenland:
population and labor force by sex, 1939-44__________________
Labor force compared with Armed Forces and the unemployed,
United States, 1940-56 (labor force per 1,000 in same popula
tion group)---------------------------------------------------------------------------Labor force of native white, foreign-born white, and colored
persons: United States, census dates, 1890-1950_____________
Number of persons by which the labor force during the severe
unemployment of April 1940 differed from the average of the
moderately high-employment census dates April 1930 and
1950, in relation to population and unemployment by sex and
age group, United States and its urban and rural areas_______
Number of persons by which the labor force of the depression
years 1934-36 differed from that of the April 1930 and 1940
average in relation to population and unemployment, by sex
and age group, four States___________________________________
Fage
487
517
518
492
489
484
484
483
483
488
534
491
481
482
480
481
482
482
511
524
525
524
567
585
585
539
565
558
559
564
557
556
INDEX TO HEARINGS
39
Long, Clarence D., professor of economics— Continued
Exhibits*—Continued
Persons 14 years and older in the labor force per 1,000 in same
population group: Five countries, various years, 1890-1951; Page
and standardized for age and sex__________________________ 562, 563
Variation in the proportion of the labor force to population and
the corresponding range of error in the labor force sample esti
mates, United States and Canada, 1946-52 (per 1,000 popula
tion of same sex and age)___________________________________
560
Morse, Gerry E., vice president, industrial relations, Minneapolis-Honeywell Corp______________________________ ______________________________
595
Silbert, Myron S., vice president of Federated Department Stores, Cincin
nati, Ohio (also chairman, Committee on Manpower and Employment
Statistics, Business Research Advisory Counsel to U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics)________________________________ *___________________________
527
PART 4—THE INFLUENCE ON PRICES OF CHANGES IN THE
EFFECTIVE SUPPLY OF M O N E Y ....................................... 605-887
WITNESSES IN O R D E R OF APPEARAN CE
Milton Friedman, Universtiy of Chicago and National Bureau of Eco
nomic Research______________________________ ____________ ____________ ___ 605
Richard T. Selden, research associate, National Bureau of Economic
Research, and associate professor of banking, Columbia University------------671
Robert Eisner, professor, Northwestern University.............................
......767
John G. Gurley, senior staff member, Brookings Institution
___ 847
STATEM EN TS AN D E X H IB IT S
Eisner, Robert, professor, Northwestern University-______________ ______
Exhibits:
Article reprinted from the Economic Journal, the quarterly
journal of the Royal Economic Society_______________________
Employment and price levels____________ ____________ __________
Hypothetical aggregate supply and demand functions. _________
Hypothetical aggregate supply and demand functions after reduc
tion in cost of capital and increase in assets stemming from
increase in quantity of money________________________________
Hypothetical aggregate supply and demand functions after reduc
tion in cost of capital stemming from increase in quantity of
money_______________________________________________________
Unemployment equilibrium rates of growth_________________ •__
Friedman, Milton, University of Chicago and National Bureau of Eco
nomic Research________________________________________ _ _■____________
Exhibits:
Demand deposit turnover rates, 1943-58_______________________
Deposits and currency, all banks in the United States— June and
December through 1942, end of month 1943-46, last Wednesday
of month 1947__________________________________ ____________
Elements of the equation of exchange, quarterly, 1947-58_______
Flow of funds sector velocities, 1939-56________________ _____ 644
Four measures of aggregate monetary v elocity .________________
Money Stock, income, and income Velocity, 1869-1957_________
Monthly rate of change in money stock, 1907-58_________ _____
Sector Velocity components, statistics of income, 1931-56_______
Selected asset size velocities, nonfinancial corporations, statistics
of income, 1946-55________________________________ _____ ____
Selected sector velocities by major industry groups, statistics of
income, 1946-56___________________________________________ _
The Quantity Theory of Money— A Restatement_______________
767
829
803
796
799
798
811
605
643
641
642
640
638
639
645
648
646
649
40
INDEX TO HEARINGS
Page
Gurley, John G., senior staff member, Brookings Institution___________
Exhibits:
Average annual net issues of primary securities and GNP by short
cycles, 1897-1958_____________________________________ ______
Average annual net issues of primary securities and their pur
chasers by short cycles, 1897-1958----------------------------------------Market for loanable funds_____________________________ _ _ —
Money supply, time deposits, and other nonmonetary indirect
assets, 1948-58------------------- -------------------------------------------------Net issues of primary securities by short cycles, 1897-1958----- Percentage composition of primary security issues by selected
periods. 1897-1958_________________________________________ Percentage of primary security issues purchased by ultimate
lenders, monetary system, and nonmonetary intermediaries,
by short cycles, 1897-1958___________________________________
Ratio of primary security issues to GNP by short cycles, 18971958
_____________________________________________________
Selected indirect securities, 1947-58____________________________
Yields on U.S. Government securities__________________________
Selden, Richard T., research associate, National Bureau of Economic Re
search, and associate professor of banking, Columbia University_______
Exhibits (see also chart presentation in Mr. Friedman’s statement,
p. 638):
Cost-push versus demand-pull inflation, 1955-57________________
Cyclical movements in income, money stock, income velocity, and
prices: difference in monthly rates of change between reference
expansion and contraction, annual analysis, 1870-1954, ex
cluding war cycles___________________________________________
847
872
873
857
870
872
861
868
860
873
874
671
700
693
AD D ITIO N A L IN FO RM ATION
Correspondence between the Chairman and the Federal Reserve Board__
Debt management, 1959________________________________________________
Inflationary pressures, 1955-57__________________________________________
Insured commercial banks, 1936-58, profits on (securities sold____________
Monetary Systems and Accelerator Models, article in the American Eco
nomic Review________________________________________________________
Money rates____________________________________________________________
Selected data on interbank demand deposits and total demand deposits,
1939-58— _________ ____________ ______ ______ _______________________
PART 5—INTERNATIONAL
ECONOMY
INFLUENCES
ON
THE
755
761
760
678
730
759
758
AMERICAN
WITNESSES IN ORDER OF APPEARANCE
William Diebold, Jr., director of economic studies, Council of Foreign
Relations, Inc., New York City, N .Y ______________ _______ ___________
Walther Lederer, Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Com
merce________ _____ ________________________________ ______ ___________
Wilson E. Schmidt, associate professor of economics, George Washington
University__________________________ _____ ____________________________
Charles P. Kindleberger, professor of economics, Massachusetts Institute
of Technology________________________________________________________
Robert E. Baldwin, professor of economics, University of California,
Los Angeles___________________________ ________________ _____ _______ _
George W. Ball, Washington, D .C __________ 1_______ ___________________
Emile Despres, professor of economics, Williams College_________________
Tibor Scitovsky, professor of economics, University of California, Berkeley,
Calif_________________________________________________ _______________
Reynold E. Carlson, professor of economics, Vanderbilt University_______
Raymond F. Mikesell, professor of economics, University of Oregon_____
Simon Rottenberg, professor of economics, University of Chicago...............
889
933
945
950
972
991
1018
1037
1053
1058
1066
INDEX TO HEARINGS
41
STATEMENTS AND EXHIBITS
Baldwin, Robert E., professor of economics, University of California,
Los Angeles.--------------------------- -------- -------- -------- --------------------- ----------Ball, George W., Washington, D .C ..........- -------- ---------------- ---------------------Exhibits:
European Common Market— Overall tariff level changes (in
ternal and external) during the transition period, January 1,
1958, to January 1, 1970, or not later than January 1, 1973__
Fixed capital formation. __________________________________ ____
Indexes of industrial production, metal products________________
Indexes of industrial production, 1953=100:
Chemicals_________________________________________________
Manufacturing.___________________________________________
Institutions of the European Communities_____________________
Population and gross national product-------- -----------------------------Representative industrial production___________________________
Trade among the European Coal and Steel Community Countries.
Carlson, Reynold E., professor of economics, Vanderbilt University______
Diebold, William, Jr., director of economic studies, Council on Foreign
Relations, Inc., New York City, N. Y _________________________________
Exhibit: Letter to chairman, and enclosure re counterpart funds____
Despres, Emile, professor of eponomics, Williams College_______________
Kinaleberger, Charles *P., professor of economics. Massachusetts Institute
of Technology________________________________________________________
Exhibits:
Equilibrating influence of income________ ______________________
Gold and U.S. dollar settlements, 1950-58______________________
Monetary reserve position of the United States_________________
Shares in world exports of manufactures-----------------------------------U.S. assets abroad and foreign assets in the United States--------U.S. exports as share of world total, 1950-58___________________
U.S. imports and the gross national product-----------------------------U.S. private capital outflow and U.S. Government transfers
abroad______________________________________________________
U.S. surplus on trade and current account, 1950-58_____________
Lederer, Walther, Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of
Commerce. ______ ______________________ ;_____________________________
Exhibits:
Gold reserves and liquid dollar holdings of foreign countries and
international institutions____________________________________
U.S. balance of international payments__________ ___ ___________
U.S. balance of international payments in 1958________ _________
Mikesell, Raymond F., professor of economics, University of Oregon______
Exhibit: Net imports of primary products in Western Europe and
North America, 1953-55 and prospective 1973-75_________________
Rottenberg, Simon, professor of economics, University of Chicago______
Exhibits:
American investments in Latin America________________________
Percent of total U.S. imports originating in Latin America______
Selected comparative physical data_____________________________
Schmidt, Wilson E., associate professor of economics, George Washington
University-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Scitovsky, Tibor, professor of economics, University of California, Berke
ley, Calif___________________________ •_________________________________
Pa^e
972
991
997
1002
1014
1015
1000
994
1016
1017
1041
1053
889
908
1018
950
984
967
970
966
969
966
966
968
968
933
942
941
939
1058
1073
1066
1070
1069
1066
945
1037
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Implications of the shift in the U.S. balance of payments, by Randal
Hinshaw, Oberlin College ___________________________________________
International position of the U.S. dollar, by Edward M. Bernstein, formerly
an assistant to the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury and until January
1958 Director of Research and Statistics at the International Monetary
Fund__________________________ ______________________________________
62808 0 — 61------- 4
959
964
42
INDEX TO HEARINGS
PART 6A—THE GOVERNMENT’S MANAGEMENT OF ITS MONE- Page
TARY, FISCAL AND DEBT OPERATION S--................. 1087-1504*
WITNESSES IN ORDER OF APPEARANCE
Hon. Robert B. Anderson, Secretary of the Treasury; acoompanied by
Julian B. Baird, Under Secretary of the Treasury for Monetary Affairs;
Charles E. Walker, assistant to the Secretary; Robert P. Mayo, assist
ant to the Secretary; Nils Lennartson, assistant to the Secretary; and
R. Duane Saunders, Chief, Office of Debt Analysis Staff, Department
of the Treasury......... ....... ...................... ........................ ......... ....... ........... 1087
Hon. William McChesney Martin, Jr., Chairman, Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System; accompanied by Ralph A. Young, Direco t Division of Research, Federal Reserve Board: Winfield WT Riefler,
assistant to the Chairman, Federal Reserve Board; and Robert Roosa,
vice president, New York Federal Reserve Bank_______ _______ . . . 1231, 1451
Resumed.................. ........... ............................. ....... ............................. 1307
Qeorge T. Conklin, Jr., vice president, finance, the Guardian Life Insur
ance Co. of America, New York; accompanied by Sherwin C. Badger,
financial vice president, New England Mutual Life Insurance Co.,
Boston; Robert B. Patrick, vice president Bankers Life Co. of Des
Moines; Richard K. Paynter, Jr., executive vice president, New York
Life Insurance Co.; James J. O’Leary, director of economic research,
Life Insurance Association of America, New York____ ____________ ___ 1335
John M. Ohlenbusch, senior vice president, Bowery Savings Bank, New
York City; accompanied by Saul B. Klaman, director of research,
National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, New York City............ 1410
%,
STATEMENTS AND EXHIBITS
Anderson, Hon. Robert B., Secretary of the Treasury; accompanied by
Julian B. Baird, Under Secretary of the Treasury for Monetary Affairs;
Charles E. Walker, assistant to the Secretary; Robert P. Mayo, assist
ant to the Secretary; Nils Lennartson, assistant to the Secretary;’and
R. Duane Saunders, Chief, Office of Debt Management, Department of
the Treasury............ ....................................................................... ...................
Exhibits:
Allotments by investor classes on subscriptions for public mar
ketable securities other than weekly Treasury b ills ....---------Amount of Treasury marketable debt maturing within the next
12 months___________________ . . . _________________________
Joint statement relating to the Treasury-Federal Reserve study
of the Government securities market_______________________
Judging the appropriateness of a “sense of Congress1’ action re
lating to the techniques of a monetary policy_____ __________
Net profits by banks on securities—-calendar years 1955-58_____
Offerings of public marketable securities other than regular
weekly Treasury bills_____ _______________________________
Ownership of U.S. Government securities, December 31, 1958__
Question of commercial banks paying interest on Treasury ac
counts________________________________________________ ___
Question of deposits to be maintained in commercial banks_____
Question of Treasury requirements of banks to pay interest on
minimum balance maintained by the Treasury______________
Question whether law which prohibits commercial banks from
paying interest on demand deposits should be repealed_______
Questions Representative Patman has asked the Treasury to
answer__ ________________________________________________
1087
1104
1181
1209
1165
1143
1171
1113
1201
1202
1191
1204
1185
INDEX TO HEARINGS
43
Anderson. Hon. Robert B., etc.— Continued
Exhibits— Continued
Page
Selling Treasury securities through auction____________________ 1150
Selling U.S. Government direct and guaranteed issues by tender. 1156
Summary by investor class—all districts______________________ 1108
Taxes subject to the individual income tax____________________ 1207
Conklin, George T., Jr., vice president finance, the Guardian Life Insur
ance Co. of America, New York: accompanied by Sherwin C. Badger,
financial vice president, New England Mutual Life Insurance Co.,
Boston; Robert B. Patrick, vice president, Bankers Life Co. of Des
Moines; Richard K. Paynter, Jr., executive vice president, New York
Life Insurance Co.; James J. O'Leary, director of economic research,
Life Insurance Association of America, New York____________________ 1335
Exhibits:
Capital funds available from principal savings sources, 1947-58. 1356
Comparative yields of U.S. savings bonds, marketable bonds, and
savings deposits_________________ _______ __________________ 1370
Holdings by type of investor of long-term Treasury bonds (due or
callable m 10 vears or over) as percent of total outstanding,
1945-59.......................................................................................... 1365
Hypothetical Federal debt transactions during a year__________ 1364
Long-term Treasury bonds, by type of investor, 1945-59 (due or
callable in 10 years or over)_______________________________ 1365
Net uses of funds in selected investments of corporate pension
funds, 1947-58............................................................................... 1368
Net uses of funds in selected investments of life insurance com
panies, 1947-58.............................. ........................................... 1369-70
Net uses of funds in selected investments of mutual savings banks,
1947-58....................................................................................... 1366-67
Uses of capital funds in corporate financing, 1947-58........ ....... 1359-60
Uses of capital funds in residential mortgages, commercial mort
gages and corporate securities, 1947-58___________________ 1361-62
Uses of capital funds in the real estate mortgage market,
1957-48......................- ........................ - .................................... 1357-58
Uses of funds in Government financing, 1947-58_____________ 1363-64
Martin, Hon. William McChesnev, Jr., Chairman, Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, accompanied by Ralph A. Young, Director,
Division of Research, Federal Reserve Board; Winfield W. Piefler,
assistant to the Chairman, Federal Reserve Board; and Robert Poosa,
vice president, New York Federal Reserve Bank— ..................— 1231,1451
Exhibits:
Basic commodity price indexes in relation to price analysis_____ 1485
Demand for credit__________________________________________
1490
Differences in techniques between raising or lowering money
supply to counteract cyclical changes an1 raising the money
supply in relation to long-range secular growth--------------------1496
Federal Reserve policy actions___________________________ 1460, 1491
Profits, recoveries, and losses on securities—member banks,
1951-58________________________ __________ ____________ 1238
Ratio of outstanding E and H savings bonds to gross public
debt, 1954-59............ ............................................................... - 1283
What constitutes disorderly conditions in the Government
securities market--------------------------------------------------------------- 1278
Wholesale commodity prices---------- ----------------- ---------------------- 1489
Ohlenbusch, John M., senior vice president, Bowery Savings Bank, New
York City; accompanied by Saul B. Klaman, director of research,
National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, New York City.......... 1410
Exhibits:
Balance sheets reflecting assumed bank’s position before and
after bond transactions described in text____________________ 1425
Holdings and transactions in U.S. Government securities----------- 1449
Officers_____________________________________________________ 1423
Statement of condition as of June 30, 1959---------------------- --------- 1424
Summary—bond income, profits and losses, 1946-58-------- ’------- 1426
Transactions of the Bowery Savings Bank in U.S. Government
obligations_______________________________________________
1450
44
INDEX TO HEARINGS
A D D ITIO N A L IN FO RM ATION
Analysis of the recommendations on debt management of the Committee
on Government Borrowing of the American Bankers Association to the
Secretary of the Treasury.-------------------- ----------- ------------------------- -------Average maturity of the Federal marketable interest-bearing public debt:
semiannually, December 1949 through December 1958-----------------------Corporations’ securities issues: by purpose of issue, 1945-58-------------------Federal Government issues of certificates, notes, and bonds: by purpose of
issue, 1945-58-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Government's management of its monetary, fiscal, and debt operations...
Interest payments in proportion to the total economy— -----------------------Letter of Hon. William McChesney Martin, Jr., Chairman, Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, to Hon. Richard M. Simpson.
Member bank earning assets— potential expansion arising from reduction
in reserve requirements, July 1, 1953, to June 30, 1959-----------------------Member bank reserve requirements_____________________________________
Sources and uses of member bank reserves, 1914 to 1952----- . -----------------State and local governments’ securities issues: by purpose of issue, 1945-58
Total debt and Federal debt: Selected years, 1929-58.--------------------------Total securities issues of the Federal Government, State and local govern
ments, and corporations, by purpose of issue, 1945-58--------------------------
1229
1098
1097
1090
1245
1208
1287
1331
1317
1300
1096
1098
1097
6B—THE GOVERNMENT’S MANAGEMENT OF ITS MONETARY,
FISCAL AND DEBT OPERATIONS
1505-1718
WITNESSES IN OR D E R OF APPEARAN CE
Robert G. Rouse, vice president, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and
manager, Open Market Account; accompanied by John J. Larkin and
Spencer S. Marsh, Jr., assistant vice presidents, Federal Reserve Bank
of New York_________________________________________________________
1507
Girard L. Spencer, partner, Salomon Bros. & Hutzler, New York, N .Y.;
accompanied by John Brown, office manager and senior cashier------------ 1558
Murray F. Brown, executive vice president, C. F. Childs & Co., New
York; accompanied by Timothy Cantwell, vice president, trading
operations; Robert Van Cleave, vice president for research; and Charles
Giamondi, assistant treasurer and cashier_____________________ _____ 1577
Alfred H. Hauser, vice president in charge of investment division. Chemical
Corn Exchange Bank, New York; accompanied by Albert H. Shrader,
manager of Government bond department, Chemical Corn Exchange
Bank, New Y ork _____________________________________________________
1622
Maurice A. Gilmartin, Jr., partner, Charles E. Quincey & Co., New York,
N .Y __________________________________________________________________ 1643
Herbert N. Repp, president, Discount Corp. of New York; accompanied
by Robert M. Coon, vice president and treasurer; and Robert H. Bethke,
vice president, Discount Corp. of New York__________________________
1659
STATEM EN TS AND E X H IB IT S
Brown, Murray F., executive vice president, C. F. Childs & Co., New York;
accompanied by Timothy Cantwell, vice president, trading operations;
Robert Van Cleave, vice president for research; and Charles Giamondi,
assistant treasurer and cashier________________________________________
1577
Gilmartin, Maurice A., Jr., partner, Charles E. Quincey & Co., New York,
N .Y __________________________________________________________________ 164?
Hauser, Alfred II., vice president in charge of investment division. Chemical
Corn Exchange Bank, New York; accompanied by Albert H. Shrader,
manager of Government bond department, Chemical Corn Exchange
Bank, New Y ork _______________ ____________________________________ 1622
Repp, Herbert N., president, Discount Corp. of New York; accompanied
by Robert M. Coon, vice president and treasurer; and Robert H. Bethke,
vice president, Discount Corp. of New York_________________________
1659
Exhibit:
Rebuttal of the “ Webb Chart” and accompanying statement__
1672
Rouse, Robert G., vice president, Federal Reserve Bank of New" York,
and manager, open market account; accompanied by John J. Larkin
and Spencer S. Marsh, Jr., assistant vice presidents, Federal Reserve
Bank of New Y ork___________________________________________________
1507
INDEX TO HEARINGS
45
Spencer, Girard L., partner, Salomon Bros. & Hutzler, New York, N .Y .; Page
accompanied by John Brown, office manager and senior cashier--------- --- 1558
A D D ITIO N A L IN FO RM ATION
All insured commercial banks— profits or losses on securities_______________1603
Changes in money supply, real gross national product, and interstate rates,
1946-58______________________________________________________________ __1607
Gross national product and money supply, 1946-58____________________ __1608
Inflationary increases in the money supply before and after the Federal
Reserve-Treasury accord_____________________________________________ __1606
Interlocking directors of Discount Corp. and seven New York banks with
major financial institutions. . _______________________________ F acin g,_ 1672
Correspondence re_________________________________________________ __1672
Letter of Rossant, M. J., Business Week, to Hon. Wright Patman________1544
6C—THE GOVERNMENT’S MANAGEMENT OF ITS MONETARY,
FISCAL AND DEBT OPERATIONS................................................ 1719-1976
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS ON MONETARY POLICY AND
DEBT MANAGEMENTS
Answers to questions submitted to the Secretary of the Treasury________ __1719
Answers to questions submitted to the Chairman of the Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System__________________________________________1761
Answers to questions submitted to dealers in Treasury securities___________1821
Supplementary statements submitted by five of the dealers______________ __1959
PART 7—THE EFFECTS OF MONOPOLISTIC AND QUASI-MONOPO
LISTIC PRACTICES.......................................................... .
1977-2443
WITNESSES IN ORDER OF APPEARANCE
Howard H. Hines, associate professor of economics, Iowa State University,
Ames, Iowa__________________________________________________________
William H. Martin, Pennsylvania State Universit}r______________ _______
Robert A. Bicks, Acting Assistant Attorney General, Antitrust Division,
Department of Justice_________________________________ ______________
E. T. Grether, University of California__________________________________
Jesse W. Markham, professor of economics, Princeton University________
John Perry Miller, professor of economics, Yale University_______________
Theodore A. Andersor, University of California, Berkeley_______________
Arthur M. Okun, assistant professor of economics, Yale University______
Charles L. Schuitze, department of economics, Indiana University_______
Hyman P. Minsky, associate professor of economics, University of Cali
fornia, Berkeley, Calif____________________________ ’__________________
Robert K. Lanzillotti, State College of Washington______________________
Abba Lerner, labor and industrial research center, Michigan State Uni
versity__________________________ _____________________ _1_____ _______
Richard Ruggies, Yale University_____ _________________________________
J. Frederick Weston, University of California, Los Angeles, Calif________
James S. Duesenberry, Harvard University____________________________
William J. Fellner, Yale University_________________________________ ____
D. Hamberg, University of Maryland___________________________________
Calvin B. Hoover, Duke University_____________________________________
John H. Power, Williams College_______________________________________
Arthur Smithies, Harvard University___________________________________
1977
2000
2018
2115
2119
2123
2154
2169
2172
2205
2237
2262
2266
2294
2324
2333
2337
2379
2384
2423
46
INDEX TO HEARINGS
STATEM EN TS AND E X H IB IT S
Anderson, Theodore A., University of California, Berkeley_______________
Exhibits:
Comparison of the excess in wage increases over productivity
gains with price increases for the major manufacturing
industries________________________________ ___________________
Industries with large gains in output usually showed the largest
gains in productivity________________________________________
Industry price increases were proportionate to the excess of wage
rate increases over productivity gains__________________ _____
Percentage changes in prices, wages, profits, productivity for 12
manufacturing industries from the 1st quarter 1955 to 1st
quarter 1959_________________________________________________
Quarter io quarter changes in real gross national product 1955 to
second quarter 1959_______________ _________________________
Rate of plant utilization by all manufacturers_________________
Trends in output and prices, 1955-59__________________________
Bicks, Robert A., Acting Assistant Attorney General, Antitrust Division,
Department of Justice________________________________________________
Exhibits:
Cases filed by the antitrust division between January 1, 1953, and
September 22, 1959, in which divestiture, divorcement, or dis
solution relief was sought____________________________________
Classification of 20 antitrust cases riled between 1953 and 1959
by types of illegal labor union activity__________ ___________
Exemptions from antitrust coverage____________________________
Five major patent judgments__________________________________
Duesenberry, James S., Harvard University_____________________________
Fellner, William J.; Yale University_______________________ _____________
Grether, E. T., University of California_________________________________
Hamberg, D., University of Mary lend_________________________________
Exhibits:
Chemical and allied products— United States, 1951. Percentage
of cost of research and development to value of sales_________
Fifteen largest oil companies in the United States______________
Jewkes list of inventions___ ____________________^ ______________
Hamberg list of inventions (so far completed (of a list of 45)__
United States, 1951: ranking (1-14) of major industrial groups as
to research and development expenditure and size of firms____
United States, 1953: expenditure on research and development
per company for all companies conducting research and devel
opment— by size groups of companies and industries_____. . . .
Hines, Howard H., associate professor of economics, Iowa State Univer
sity, Ames, Iowa____________________________________________________ _
Exhibit: Effectiveness of “ Entry” by already established firms______
Hoover, Calvin B., Duke University____________________________________
Lanzillotti, Robert K., State College of Washington_____________________
Exhibits:
Chart presentation________________________________________ 2241
Net changes in wholesale price levels, by product groups, 1948-59Wholesale price changes by product groups, July 1953-July 1959_
Wholesale price changes during post World War II business cycles
by product groups___________________________________________
Lerner, Abba, Labor and Industrial Research Center, Michigan State
University____________________________________________________________
Markham, Jesse W., professor of economics, Princeton University_______
Martin, William H., Pennsylvania State University_____________________
Miller, John Perry, professor of economics, Yale University_____________
Minsky, Hyman P., associate professor of economics, University of Cali
fornia, Berkeley, Calif______________________ _______________ I _________
Exhibit: Conventional and pigouvian velocity______________________
Okun, Arthur M., assistant professor of economics, Yale University_____
Power, John H., Williams College_______________________________________
Exhibits:
Capital-labor ratio, 1900-1959_________________________________
Capital-output ratios at peak employment years________________
Change in labor productivity, 1947-59_________________________
Civilian labor force— percentage change in labor force__________
Measures of U.S. economic growth, 1869-78 to 1944-53________
Page
2154
2156
2160
2157
2156
2159
2162
2158
2018
2105
2108
2036
2022
2324
2333
2115
2337
2357
2357
2354
2355
2357
2356
1977
1981
2379
2237
-2259
2239
2240
2238
2262
2119
2000
2123
2205
2216
2169
2384
2396
2396
2395
2395
2396
INDEX TO HEARINGS
Power t John H., Williams College—Continued
Exhibits—Continued
Percent unemployment at peak years in the business cycle______
Ratio scale____________________________________________________
Saving-output ratios___________________________________________
The economic framework of a theory of growth_________________
Unemployment and changes in wage rates. ______ _____ _________
Ruggles, Richard, Yale University______________________________________
Exhibits:
Average hourly earnings, output per full time equivalent em
ployee, and the implicit deflator of the gross national product,
1934-^7 and 1955-58 (percentage change from preceding year).
Behavior of costs and prices, 1956-58 (percentage change from
preceding year)______________________________________________
Components of the cost of living index, 1947-49=100__________
Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1946-59_____
Industrial integration, prices and output_______________________
Wages and salaries paid by corporations and corporate profits,
1955-58 (seasonally adjusted totals of annual rates)__________
Schultze, Charles L., department of economics, Indiana University______
Exhibits:
Changes in manufacturing costs and prices______________ _____ _
Changes in output, employment, and wage rates; manufacturing,
May-June 1955 to May-June 1957__________________________
Changes in prices and output__________________________________
Indexes of capacity, employment and output in manufacturing
industries____________________________________________________
Smithies, Arthur, Harvard University___________________________________
Weston, J. Frederick, University of California, Los Angeles, Calif________
47
Page
2394
2391
2397
2401
2394
2266
2279
2279
2280
2278
2280
2279
2172
2181
2175
2178
2181
2423
2294
PART 8—THE EFFECT OF INCREASES IN WAGES, SALARIES, AND
THE PRICES OF PERSONAL SERVICES, TOGETHER
WITH UNION AND PROFESSIONAL PRACTICES UPON
PRICES, PROFITS, PRODUCTION, AND
EMPLOY-
WITNESSES IN ORDER OP APPEARANCE
Colin C. Clark, director of research, the Econometric Institute. Inc.: ac
companied by Peter W. Hoguet, president, and Mrs. Ruth Gomulicka,
researchist.................................................... - .....................- ............. .......... .. 2445
Carl F. Christ, University of Chicago.................. ........................................ ....2483
John R. Meyer, Harvard University____________ ______ ______________ __2485
Dtniel B. Suits, University of Chicago..............................- .......................... ...2492
Lloyd Ulman, professor of economics and industrial relations, University
of California, Berkeley, Calif___________________________________ 2515, 2556
Edward C. Budd. assistant professor of economics, Yale University.......... ...2516
George H. Hildebrand, professor of economics and director, Institute of
Industrial Relations, University of California, Los Angeles, Calif______ _2528
Oscar A. Ornati, associate professor of economics, and director of labor
education center, New School for Social Research, New York, N .Y .____2543
Mark L. Kahn, Wayne State University....................................................... ...2583
George W. Taylor, professor of industry, Wharton School, University of
Pennsylvania................................ — ............................ ........................... - 2588
Jask Stieber, Labor and Industrial Relations Center, Michigan State
University............................... - ........................................................................2597
Charles C. Killingsworth, Michigan State University---------- ------------------- -- 2628
Frank C. Pierson, professor of economics, Swarthmore College__________ _2632
Martin Segal, Dartmouth College................................................................... ...2635
Robert Ferber, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of
Illinois.................. ........................... ......... ................................................... ...2655
Eli Ginsbere, Columbia University....................... ............................................. 2661
Werner Z. ffirsch, Washington University.............. ......... ............................ ...2671
Neil W. Chamberlain, professor of economics, Yale University__________ _2703
Philip Taft and.Merton P. Stoltz, Department of Economics, Brown Uni
versity.............. ......... ........................... ...................................................... ... 2707
John T. Dunlop, Harvard University_____ _______________________ 1____ __2733
48
INDEX TO HEARINGS
STATEM E N TS AND E X H IB IT S
Page
Budd, Edward C., assistant professor of economics, Yale University_____
2516
Exhibits:
Average annual earnings and relative employment in strongly
and weakly unionized sectors of the private economy_________ 2526
Average annual earnings (including supplements) of, and propor
tion of those engaged accounted /o r by, strongly and weakly
unionized sectors of the private domestic economy, selected
years------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2522
Share of employee compensation in gross and net income origi
nating in corporations, selected periods_______________________ 2523
Share of employee compensation in gross and net national income .
(at factor cost) in strongly and weakly unionized sectors of the
private economy_____________________________________________ 2527
Share of employee compensation in net and gross income origi
nating in strongly and weakly unionized sectors of the private
domestic economy, selected years____________________________
2525
Share of employee compensation in private domestic income for
selected peacetime, nondepression years______________________ 2525
2703
Chamberlain, Neil W., professor of economics, Yale University__________
Christ, Carl F., University of Chicago__________ _____ ___________________ 2483
Clark, Colin C., director of research, the Econometric Institute, Inc.; accom
panied by Peter W. Hoguet, president, and Mrs. Ruth Gomulicka,
researchist____________________________________________________________ 2445
Exhibits:
Comparable levels of taxation and the rate of price increase in
2481
various countries____________________________________________
Econometric Institute model of U.S. business fluctuations______
2451
Extracts from Econometric Institute forecasts__________________ 2449
General summary— U.S.S.R. net national product revalued in
billions of dollars of 1950 purchasing power__________________
2478
Prices, productivity and taxation______________________________
2480
Productivity per man-hour in Soviet Union____________________
2482
Statistics on Russian man-hours worked and real net product per
man-hour____________________________________________________ 2476
U.S. statistics on labor’s share of net national product (nonfarm) _ 2479
Dunlop, John T., Harvard University___________________________________
2733
Ferber, Robert, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of
Illinois_______________________________________________________________
2655
Exhibits:
Change in deflated personal service expenditures, by category,
1936-58_______________ _•_____________________________________ 2661
Estimated change in price of consumer services, by categorv,
1936-58___________________________________________________ _
2660
Influence of price in increase in personal service expenditures,
by category, 1936-58________________________________________
2661
Ginsberg, Eli, Columbia University_____________________________________
2661
Hildebrand, George H., professor of economics and director, Institute of
Industrial Relations, University of California, Los Angeles, Calif______
2528
Hirsch, Werner Z., Washington University_____________________________ _ 2671
Exhibits:
Total current expenditure (plus debt service) for public primary
and secondary education, selected years, 1900-58________ 2672, 2673
Total current expenditure (plus debt service) for public primary
and secondary education minus expenditures for auxiliary
services, selected years, 1900-1958___________________________
2678
Kahn, Mark L., Wayne State University-----------------------------------------------2583
Killings worth, Charles C., Michigan State University___________________
2628
Meyer, John R., Harvard University______________________________ _____
2485
Ornati, Oscar A., associate professor of economics, and director of labor
education center, New School for Social Research, New York, N.Y_ ___ 2543
Exhibits:
Employment, prices and wages in 1949, 1954, and 1958------------- 2550
Indexes of hourly money earnings in manufacturing in selected
2547
countries, 1946-57____________________________________ ______
Rise in the consumer price index in 16 industrial countries in Europe
and North America; 1948-53, 1953-57----------------------------------2545
INDEX TO HEARINGS
49
Page
2632
Pierson, Frank C., professor of economics, Swarthmore College__________
Segal, Martin, Dartmouth College______________________________________
2635
Exhibit: Percentage increases in average hourly earnings, 1953-58__
2639
Stieber, Jack, Labor and Industrial Relations Center, Michigan State
University____________________________________________________________ 2597
Suits, Daniel B., University of Chicago_________________________________ ' 2492
Exhibits:
The economic outlook for I960 as forecast by an econometric
2496
model of the United States__________________________________
Review of forecasts_________________ ___________________________ 2493
Taft, Philip, and Merton P. Stoltz, Department of Economics, Brown
University_____________________ ______________________________________ 2707
Taylor, George W., professor of industry, Wharton School, University of
Pennsylvania_________________________________________________________ 2588
Ulman, Lloyd, professor of economic and industrial relations, University
of California, Berkeley, Calif_____________________________________ 2515, 2556
A D D ITIO N A L IN FO RM A TIO N
Summary of the September 1955 and September 1959 classifications for
labor market areas___________________________________________________
2717
PART 9A—CONSTRUCTIVE SUGGESTIONS FOR RECONCILING
AND SIMULTANEOUSLY OBTAINING THE THREE OBJECTIVES OF MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT, AN ADE
QUATE RATE OF GROWTH, AND SUBSTANTIAL STA
BILITY OF THE PRICE LEVEL........... .......................... 2757-3053
WITNESSES IN ORDER OF APPEARAN CE
Richard A. Musgrave, professor of political economy, the Johns Hopkins
University___________________________________________________________ _2757
William J. Baumol, Princeton University------------------------------------------------ -- 2792
Fritz Machlup, the Johns Hopkins University---------------------------------------- -- 2819
Albert Gailord Hart, Columbia University______________________________ _2861
Robert Triffin, professor of economics, Yale University------------------------------ 2905
Robert A. Gordon, professor of economics, chairman of the Department
of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, Calif-------------------------- 2955
Walter W. Heller, University of Minnesota----------- ------------------------ -------- -- 2988
Milton Friedman, University of Chicago and National Bureau of Economic
Research______________________________________________________________3019
STATEM ENTS AND E XH IBITS
Baumol, William J., Princeton University----------------------------------------------Friedman, Milton, University of Chicago and National Bureau of Eco
nomic Research------------------------- ,---------------------------------------------- ---------Exhibit: Minimum and maximum accepted bids on offerings of
91-day Treasury bills, April-June 1959----------------------------------------Gordon, Robert A., professor of economics, chairman of the Department
of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, Calif-----------------------Hart, Albert Gailord, Columbia University--------------------------------------------Exhibits:
Impact of fiscal policy of all Government bodies combined in
business fluctuations, quarterly, 1947-58_____________________
Shifts of fiscal policy and of postponable private expenditures
between selected half-years, 1947-58_________________________
Swing in percents of full-time employment, G N P ----------------------Heller, Walter W., University of Minnesota.------------------------------------------Machlup, Fritz, the Johns Hopkins University--------------------------------------Exhibits:
Definition of an “ Aggressive” wa^re increase. ___________________
Letter to chairman____________________________________________
Musgrave, Richard A., professor of political economy, the Johns Hopkins
University___________________________________________________________
2792
3019
3025
2955
2861
2869
2871
2867
2988
2819
2845
2860
2757
50
INDEX TO HEARINGS
Pag©
Triffin, Robert, professor of economics, Yale University--------------------------Exhibits:
Balance of payments of the United States, 1952-59 and 194959____________________________________ __________________ 2915,
Letter to chairman____________________________________________
Monetary gold and dollar holdings, 1949-59----------------------------The gold shortage, the dollar glut, and the future of convertibility,
U.S. balance of payments on current account and net exports
of U.S. capital, 1949-59________________ _____________________
U.S. gold and foreign dollar holdings-----------------------------------------
2905
2926
2945
2917
2918
2916
2930
A D D ITIO N A L IN FO RM ATION
Resolutions of the A FL -C IO re international trade-------------------------- 2814, 2815
PART 9B—CONSTRUCTIVE SUGGESTIONS FOR RECONCILING
AND SIMULTANEOUSLY OBTAINING THE THREE
OBJECTIVES OF MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT, AN ADE
QUATE RATE OF GROWTH, AND SUBSTANTIAL STA
BILITY OF THE PRICE LEVEL........................................ 3055-3239
Materials Submitted by 12 Organizations at the Invitation of the Joint
Economic Committee:
American Bankers Association__________________________________________ __3055
Farm programs out of control, budget estimates and expenditures for
stabilization of farm prices and farm income_______________________3072
How spending programs grow) expenditures other than national
security, international affairs and debt service____________________ __3062
Inflation in construction costs, selected price indexes: 1948-58_______3075
Our inflationary Federal budget, budget surpluses (plus) and deficits
(minus) fiscal years 1950-59_______________________________________3064
The mounting short-term debt, marketable treasury debt due within
1 year_________________________________________ ___________________3066
American Farm Bureau Federation_____________________________________ _3081
Extract from Farm Bureau’s 1959 policies on monetary and tax
matters__________________________________________________________ _3086
American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations. _ 3089
Areas of substantial labor surplus (unemployment of 6 percent or
more of the labor force) __________________________________________ _3105
Average family personal income before and after Federal individual
income tax liability____________________________ : ________________ _3131
How family income was shared bv income fifths and by the top 5 per
cent, 1935-36, 1944, 1954, 1957___________ _______________________ _3132
Operating rates as percent of capacity______________________________ _3108
The slow-down in economic growth 1947-53, 1953-59_______________ _3094
Wage and salary jobs______________________________________________ _3104
Chamber of Commerce of the United States_____________________________ _3145
Committee for Economic Development___________________ ______________ _3157
Cooperative League of the United States of America__________ i __________3163
Investment Bankers Association of America_____________________________ _3181
Life Insurance Association of America___________________________________ _3185
National Association of Manufacturers__ ________________ ______________ _3187
Export prices expressed in U.S. dollars, 1953=100__________________ _3213
Net corporate debt__________________________________________________3208
Ratio of money supply to annual output of privately purchased goods
and services in current prices_____________________________________ _3199
Retained profits in the post-war period showing amounts required to
maintain inventory and to make good the deficiency in depreciation. 3206
Trends in unit labor cost___________________________________________ _3201
Trends in unit profit_______________________________________________ _3202
Wholesale price indexes for economic sectors, 1947-49= 100_________ _3197
Wholesale prices in the United States, 1850-59=100________________ _3194
National Association of Mutual Savings Banks__________________________ _3217
INDEX TO HEARINGS
51
Page
National Retail Merchants Association__________________________________
Nathan J. Gold, president__________________________________________
Charles F. Naumann, chairman, credit management division________
Consumer debt analysis________________________________________
United Mine Workers of America_______________________________________
Wholesale prices (average value per ton), consumer prices (retailresidential), average hourly earnings and productivity— bituminous
coal, 1948 through 1958 (index number 1948=100)________________
3225
3225
3228
3230
3231
3238
PART 10—ADDITIONAL MATERIALS SUBMITTED FOR THE REC
ORD................................................................................ ........... 3241-3486
Letter of Hon. Wright Patman, to chairman_____________________________ 3241
Answers by the Secretary of the Treasury to questions submitted during
the committee hearings by the vice chairman, Congressman Wright
Patman_________________________________________________________ 3241-3344
Answers by the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System to questions submitted during the committee hearings by the
vice chairman, Congressman Wright Patman_____________________ 3345-3418
Material completing the record of part 6 of the hearings— “ the Govern
ment’s Management of its Monetary, Fiscal, and Debt Operations” ___ 3451
Income velocity and interest rates— a pragmatic approach, by Henry
A. Latan£, University of North Carolina___________________________ 3435
Statement submitted by Oscar Gass, consulting economist, Washing
ton, D.C_________________________________________________________
3444
Letter of Hon. William McChesney Martin, Jr., Chairman of the
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, to chairman. __ 3453
Letter and enclosures of Raymond W. Goldsmith, National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc., to chairman_________________________
3455
“ Private Affluence and Public Poverty,” by Horace M. Gray, excerpt
from Illinois Business Review____________________________________
3456
Letters and enclosures of Paul V. Beck, Tulsa, Okla., to chairman. __ 3460
Letter of Nat Goldfinger, assistant director of research, AFL-CIO, to
Otto Eckstein, technical director, “ Study of Employment, Growth,
and Price Levels” ________________________________________________ 3471
Reply_________________________________________________________
3477
Letter of David J. McDonald, president, United Steelworkers of
America, to chairman____________________________________________ 3477
Reply_________________________________________________________
3479
Letter of Lazare Teper, director, research department, International
Ladies’ Garment Workers’ Union, AFL-CIO, to Otto Eckstein,
technical director, “ Study of Employment, Growth, and Price
Levels” __________________________________________________________ 3480
Reply_________________________________________________________
3482
Letter of Casimir A. Sienkiewicz, chairman, committee for economic
growth without inflation, to chairman____________________________ 3483
Letter of Jesse W. Tapp, chairman economics policy commission,
The American Bankers Association, to chairman_________________ 3484
INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
STUDY PAPER NO. 1, “ RECENT INFLATION IN THE UNITED STATES,”
BY CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, INDIANA UNIVERSITY
Page
Introduction— Statement of findings____________________________________
Chapter 1. General summary___________________________________________
The current controversy: Demand-pull versus cost-push____________
The nature of the recent inflation___________________________________
The importance of the composition of demands_________________
Overhead costs_________________________________________________
A detailed analysis of the 1955-57 period___________________________
Demands and prices___________________________________________
Wages_________________________________________________________
Overhead costs_________________________________________________
Consumer prices_______________________________________________
Some implications__________________________________________________
Chapter 2. Prevailing theories of the inflationary process________________
Introductory remarks______________________________________________
The current debate____________________________________________
Classification and discussion of various inflationary mechanisms_____
Prices, wages and the level of real demands_____________________
Type A, inflation______________________________________________
Type B, inflation______________________________________________
Type C, inflation______________________________________________
Type D, inflation______________________________________________
Summary of the demand versus cost inflation theories_______________
The mechanics of inflation_____________________________________
Policy implications of existing theories______________________________
The aggregate nature of existing theories____________________________
The changing nature of costs_______________________________________
Chapter 3. The inflationary implication of shifts
the composition of
demand______________________________________________________________
The importance of the composition of aggregate spending___________
The demand and price flexibility requirements of a stable price level-The implications of the model for cost-push inflation____________
Aggregate demand inflation____________________________________
The spread of inflation throughout the economy_____________________
The relationship of prices and costs_______________ _____________
Wage determination___________________________________________
From particular to general price increases______________________
Additional considerations___________________________________________
The relationship of relative demands to relative prices_______________
Secular inflation_________________________ ___________________________
Some qualifying comments___________________ •______________________
Chapter 4. The impact of overhead costs on the inflationary process____
Introduction_______________________________________________________
The changing structure of costs, 1947-57___________________________
Overhead costs per unit of output________ _____________________
Secular aspects_____________________________________________________
Overhead labor_____ __________________________________________
Other fixed costs_______________________________________________
Cyclical aspects________________________________________ ____________
Fixed costs and price policies__________________________________
The self-defeating nature of the premature “ capture” of over
head costs___________________________________________________
Summary__________________________________________________________
53
1
4
4
8
8
10
13
13
14
14
15
15
17
17
17
20
21
26
31
34
36
39
40
41
42
43
44
44
46
49
50
54
55
59
70
71
73
76
77
78
78
79
82
84
84
87
88
90
91
95
54
INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 1— Continued
Chapter 5. The nature of inflation, 1955-57-------------------------------------------Some phenomena to be explained___________________________________
Prices, expenditures and output------------------- ---------------------------------The pattern of demands_______________________________________
Changes in final goods prices; GNP categories--------------------------Industrial prices, wages, and output____________________________
Summary______________________________________________________
The behavior of wages_____________________________________________
Summary__________ __________________________________ ________
Overhead costs_____________________________________________________
Factor inputs and unit costs___________________________________
Consumer prices___________________________________________________
Food prices____________________________________________________
Service prices_______________________________________________ _
Some implications__________________________________________________
Appendix A. Notes and sources for charts and tables________________ !___
Page
97
97
103
103
105
106
113
113
121
122
123
125
127
129
132
135
LIST OF CHARTS
Chart 3-1. Relationship between wage changes and unemployment, 19001958_________________________________________________________________
Chart 3-2. Relationship between wage changes and unemployment,
selected periods______________________________________________________
Chart 3-3. Changes in wages and consumer prices, 1900-1958___________
Chart 3-4. Changes in wages and consumer prices, selected periods______
Chart 3-5. Schematic diagram (supply-demand shifts)__________________
Chart 3-6. Schematic diagram (price-output relationships)______________
Chart 3-7. Schematic diagram (price-output relationships)______________
Chart 4-1. Schematic diagram (capacity, costs, output, 1955-57)________
Chart 4r~2. Schematic representation of changes in costs and output_____
Chart 4^-3. Relationship between rate of return and percent of capacity
operated, United States Steel Corp., 1909-58__________________________
Chart 5-1. Changes in industrial prices and output, May-June 1955 to
May~June 1957______________________________________________________
60
61
63
64
73
74
75
89
90
92
110
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1-1. Changes in manufacturing costs and prices___________________
Table 1-2. Indexes of capacity, employment and output in manufacturing
industries____________________________________________________________
Table 2-1. Price changes in the United States and selected other industrial
nations, 1953-57____________________________________' _________________
Table 2-2. Changes in prices and costs— Private nonfarm economy______
Table 2-3. Changes in prices and costs— Manufacturing industries______
Table 4-1. Employment by occupation, 1947-57________________________
Table 4-2. Employment in manufacturing, 1947-57_____________________
Table 4-3. Percent change in selected price indexes, 1947-57____________
Table 4-4. Manufacturing costs, 1947-57_______________________________
Table 4r~5. Changes in selected manufacturing costs, 1947-57____________
Table 4-6. Prices and unit costs in manufacturing, 1947-57_____________
Table 4-7. Changes in manufacturing prices and costs, 1947-57_________
Table 4-8. Changes in productivity, earnings, and unit costs— Production
and noTiproduction workers in manufacturing_______ _________________
Table 4-9. Indexes of capacity, employment, and output in manufacturing
industries_____________________________________________________________
Table 5-1. Change in output— Selected periods_________________________
Table 5-2. Capacity and output: Manufacturing industries_____________
Table 5-3. Changes in expenditures and prices, 1954-57_________________
Table 5-4. Wholesale prices and construction costs, 1955-57_____________
Table 5-5. Relationship of finished goods prices and materials costs—
Selected industries____________________________________________________
Table 5-6. Price and output changes for selected commodity groups,
May-June 1955 to May-June 1957___________________________________
Table 5-7. Changes in output, employment and wage rates— Manufactur
ing industries— Selected periods_______________________________________
10
11
25
32
33
80
80
81
82
82
83
83
85
89
100
101
104
107
. 108
112
114
INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
55
Study Paper No. 1—Continued
Table 5-8. Changes in output, employment and wage rates— Manufactur- Pa*®
mg industries— Selected countries---------------------------------------------------- H4
Table 5-9. Regression of changes in output for man-hour on changes in
output— 15 manufacturing industries___________________ _____ ______ - H5
Table 5-10. Changes in manufacturing productivity in eight industrial
H7
nations__ - ___________________________________________________________
Table 5-11. Prices and hourly earnings in capital goods and other indus
tries_________________________________________________________________
118
Table 5-12. Prices, hourly earnings, and unit costs in capital goods and
other industries______________________________________________________ ___119
Table 5-13. Employment by industry, 1955-57_________________________ ___122
Table 5-14. Changes in total private nonfarm wage and salary employ
ment by occupational groups, April-July 1955 to April-July 1957-------- ---- 123
Table 5-15. Changes in manufacturing employment 4 Q 1955 to 3 Q 1957.
123
Table 5-16. Changes in manufacturing prices and costs, 1955-57------------ ---- 124
Table 5-17. Relative importance of different costs, 1955-57— Manufac
turing industries___________________ __________________________________ ___124
Table 5-18. Changes in consumer prices, March 1956 to September 1957.
126
Table 5-19. Indexes of farm production and marketings________ ____ _—
127
Table 5-20. Distribution of increases in food prices, 1 Q 1956 to 3 Q 1957_
128
Table 5-21. Components of food marketing margins____________________ ___ 128
Table 5-22. Changes in food marketing margins and components________ ___ 128
Table 5-23. Rate of change in service prices____________________________ ___131
STUDY PAPER NO. 2, “ STEEL AND THE POSTWAR INFLATION,” BY
OTTO ECKSTEIN AND GARY FROMM
I. Introduction_____________ ___________________________________________
II. The inflation in industrial prices_____________________________________
III. The strategic importance of steel prices_____________________________
IV. The magnitude of the cost-push from steel__________________________
V._The mechanism of inflation in the steel industry_____________________
A. The labor market:
1. Steel wages compared to other high-wage industries_________
2. Restoration of “ normal” wage relationships_________________
3. Demand factors and the labor market_______________________
4. The structure of the labor and product markets in steel______
5. The influence of Government on steel wages________________
6. Conclusion on wages________________________________________
B. Productivity_____________________________________ ______________
C. Other cost characteristics: Material costs, tax costs, etc__________
D. Profits and prices_______________________________________________
1. Profit margins__________________________ ____________________
2. Rates of return_____________________________________________
3. The significance of demand factors__________________________
E. Financing new capacity_________________________________________
F. Summary on the causes of the increase of steel prices____________
VI. Conclusion_________________________________________________________
Appendixes___________________________________________ _________________
Technical appendix I.— Theoretical formulation of the input-output
computation_____________________________________________________
Technical appendix II.— The applicability of input-output analysis to
the cost-push computation_______________________________________
3
4
4
6
14
14
15
17
19
19
20
21
22
24
24
29
33
33
33
34
35
36
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Wholesale price index— comparison of all items in actual index
with index if steel prices had risen only as much as average of all other
prices________________________________________________________________
Figure 2. Wholesale price index (excluding food and farm products)— Com
parison of items in actual index with index if steel prices had risen only
as much as average of all other prices_________________________________
Figure 3. Wholesale price index (finished products)— Comparison of all
items in actual index with index if steel prices had risen only as much as
average of all other prices_______________________________ _____________
7
8
10
56
INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 2— Continued
Figure 4. Wholesale price index (finished products excluding food and
farm)— Comparison of all items in actual index with index if steel prices
had risen only as much as average of all other prices__________________
, Figure 5. Wholesale price index— Comparison of all items in actual index
with index if rubber prices had risen only as much as average of all
other prices------- -------- ------------------------------ -------- --------------------------------Figure 6. Ratio: Average hourly earnings— Steel works and rolling mills to
all manufacturing_____________________________________________________
Figure 7. Profit margins in steel, manufacturing, and durable manufac
turing before Federal income tax______________________________ ^______
Figure 8. Profit margins in steel, manufacturing, and durable manufac
turing after Federal income tax_______________________________________
Figure 9. Profitability and capacity utilization__________________________
Figure 10. Gross return on stockholders’ equity_________________________
Figure 11. Net return on stockholders’ equity___________________ _______
Figure 12. Net rate of return on equity versus utilization rates__________
Figure 13. Annual and quarterly utilization rates of steel capacity_______
Figure 14. Unfilled orders: Monthly____________________________________
Figure 15. Ratio of unfilled orders to sales______________________________
Pas®
11
13
16
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Implicit price deflators for gross national product, percentage
change, 1953-58______________________________________________________
Table 2. The rise in industrial prices, a component analysis of change in
the wholesale price index, excluding food and farm products___________
Table 3. Inflationary impact of steel price increases on wholesale price *
indexes, 1947-58______________________________________________________
Table 4. Inflationary impact of steel price increases on specific industries
and economic sectors, 1953-58________________________________________
Table 5. Wage increases in manufacturing and selected industries, 1947-58,
1947-53, and 1953-58________________________________________________
Table 6. Average hourly earnings including overtime, selected periods__
Table 7. Percent increases in wages, steel and manufacturing, selected
periods___________________________ ___________________________________
Table 8. Changes in employment and wages, steel and all manufacturing. _
Table 9. Classification of labor markets in the steel centers_____________
Table 10. Productivity indexes, output per man-hour___________________
Table 11. Income statement in ratio form, 1939 and 1947-58___________
Table 12. Revenues, costs, and profits per ton in the steel industry, 1947,
1953, and 1958_______________________________________________________
Table 13. Analysis of increase of revenue per ton in steel industry, 1947-58Appendix table 1. Ratios of indexes of steel shipments to consuming in
dustries to output of consuming industries____________________________
3
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37
STUDY PAPER NO. 3, “ AN ANALYSIS OF THE INFLATION IN MACHIN
ERY PRICES,” BY THOMAS A. WILSON
I. A theory of inflation generation as a result of sectoral demand pressure. _
41
The transmission of excess demands to the capital goods sector---------- ------ 42
II. Empirical analysis of the 1954-58 inflation in machinery prices--------------- 43
1. Machinery prices and wages and material costs---------------------------------- 43
2. The behavior of overtime hours worked__________________ ____________ 44
3. Plant and equipment expenditures and capital appropriations------------ 45
4. Capacity and output relative to previous peak----------------------------- ------ 47
5. Orders data and prices for machinery------------------------------------------- ------ 47
6. Additional evidence suggesting demand pressure hypothesis—
movements in prices of machinery compared with movements in
steel prices— concentration indexes------------------------------------------------ 51
Summary of empirical analysis of demand pressure and machin
ery prices_____________________ ____________________________ ____52
III. Machinery inflation over more than one cycle___________________________52
INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 3—Continued
IV. The significance of a capital goods inflation for price level stability and
economic growth_______ _________________________________________
1. the direct impact of machinery prices upon two measures of the
general level of industrial prices__________________________________
2. Indirect effect of machinery prices upon other prices______________
(i) wage effects_______________________________________________
(ii) Current input cost effects__________________________________
(iii) Capital cost effects________________________________________
3. A capital goods inflation and economic growth___________________
V. Conclusions_________________________________________________________
1. The role of demand pressure_____________________________________
2. Machinery inflation over more than one cycle____________________
3. More general price implications of the machinery inflation_______
4. The effect of nigh machinery prices upon growth________ ________
5. Policy implications_______________________________ ______________
Appendixes_____________________________________________________________
Technical appendix I. Tne multiple regression analysis______________
Technical appendix II. Quality change and the wholesale price index
for machinery____________________________________________________
Technical appendix III. Data sources______________________________
Technical appendix IV. Charts and tables__________________________
57
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LIST OF CHARTS
Chart 1. Macninery prices compared with industrial prices______________
48
Chart 2. Machinery: New orders, sales, unfilled orders, and inventories.49
53
Chart 3. Price indexes of important inputs into machinery_______ ______
Chart 4. Wages in the machinery sector________________________________
55
Chart 5. Nonelectrical machinery: New orders and sales_________________
74
Chart 6. Electrical machinery: New orders and sales____________________
75
Chart 7. Plant and equipment expenditures: Nonelectrical machinery and
electrical machinery__________________________________________________
76
Chart 8. Downward rigidity of machinery prices during the past two re
cessions______________________________________________________________ 77-81
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Changes in value added components, 1955-57__________________
Table 2. Overtime hours: Machinery compared with manufacturing_____
Table 3. Plant and equipment expenditures: Peak to previous peak ratios. _
Table 4. New appropriations less cancellations__________________________
Table 5. The behavior of output relative to its previous peak during
periods of suspected demand pressures________________________________
Table 6. Concentration ratios and price changes for machinery subsectors.
Table 7. Percentage increases in wholesale prices: Machinery compared
with industrial goods_________________________________________________
Table 8. Direct impact of machinery prices upon two general industrial
price indexes_________________________________________________________
Table 9. Average hourly earnings: A comparison of machinery with
manufacturing_______________________________________________________
Table 10. Percentage changes in wholesale price indexes and in average
hourly earnings, 1954-57 for six machinery subgroups_________________
Table 11. Current machinery input requirements of five sectors_________
Table 12. Changes in unit costs in manufacturing, 1955-57______________
Table 13. Erosion of capital purchasing power of personal savings_______
Appendix table 1. Regression equations_________________________________
Appendix table 2. Matrix of simple correlation coefficients: Machinery
group________________________________________________________________
Appendix table 3. Matrix of simple correlation coefficients: Steel________
Appendix table 4. Wholesale price indexes: Machinery, industrial goods,
and industrial goods excluding machinery_____________________________
Appendix table 5. Total machinery: New orders, sales, unfilled orders,
and inventories_______________________________________________________
Appendix table 6. Electrical machinery: New orders, sales, and unfilled
orders________________________________ _______________________________
Appendix table 7. Nonelectric machinery: New orders, sales, and unfilled
orders________________________________ ^--------------------------------------------62808 0 — 61--------5
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INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
STUDY PAPER NO. 4, “ ANALYSIS OF THE RISING COSTS OF PUBLIC
EDUCATION,” BY WERNER Z. HIRSCH
Page
Introduction— Statement of findings____________________________________
1
Chapter 1. General summary----------------------------------------------------------------2
Introduction_______________________________________________________
2
State and local government sector__________________________________
2
Costs of public education----------------------------------------------------------------3
Teachers* salaries— the overwhelming cost factor____________________
4
Ability to afford education— income elasticity_______________________
5
The near term prospect____________________________________________
5
Some implications__________________________________________________
6
Chapter 2. The State and local government sector______________________
6
Introduction_______________________________________________________
6
Nature of data_______________________________ *____________________
6
An overview_______________________________________________________
8
Functional breakdown________ ____________________________________
9
Current versus capital expenditures_________________________________
13
Cost comparisons in constant dollars________________________________
13
Chapter 3. The public primary and secondary education sector__________
15
Introduction_______________________________________________________
15
Nature of data_____________________________________________________
15
Factors affecting expenditure level__________________________________
16
Number of pupils in average daily attendance__________________
17
Sociological characteristics of population_______________________
18
Age structure_____________________________________________
18
Geographical distribution__________________________________
18
Economic characteristics________ ______________________________
19
Price level of goods and services bought by schools________
19
Income level______________________________________________
20
21
Physical characteristics___________________________ _____________
Productivity of school system____________________ ^_______
21
Governmental characteristics___________________________________
24
Variety, scope, and quality of education________________________
25
Addition or deletion of services____________________________
25
26
Scope of services__________________________________________
Quality of services________________________________________
26
Test of hypothesis__________________________________________________
30
32
Education cost in constant terms___________________________________
Income elasticity of public education_______________________________
35
The 1960 and 1965 outlook________________________________________39
Appendix— Economies of scale__________________________________________
41
CHARTS
Chart 1. Total current expenditures (plus debt service) for public primary
and secondary education, selected years, 1900-1958___________________
Chart 2. Current expenditures (plus debt service) for public primary and
secondary education minus expenditures, for auxiliary services, selected
years, 1900-1958_____________________________________________________
16
35
TABLES
Table 1. State and local government expenditures, selected years, 1902-58Table 2. General expenditures of State and local government by function,
selected years, 1902-58_______________________________________________
Table 3. Percent of general expenditures by service function_____________
Table 4. Current general expenditures of State and local government by
function. ............................. ........................ ........................................................
Table 5. Capital outlay general expenditure of State and local govern
ment by function_____________________________________________________
Table 6. State and local government purchases of goods and services in
current and constant (1954=100) dollars, 1929-57___________________
Table 7. Pupils in average daily attendance (ADA), selected years, 19001958_________________________________________________________________
8
10
11
12
12
14
17
INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
59
Study Paper N0J 44 (list of tables, continued)
Table 8. Public high school relative to total public enrollment, selected
years, 1900-1958_____________________________________________________
Table 9. Urbanization of school population, selected years, 1900-1958___
Table 10. Average annual salaries of public school teachers, selected years,
1900-1958____________________________________________________________
Table 11. Per capita personal income, selected years, 1900-1958________
Table 12. Auxiliary school service expenditures, selected years, 1900-1958.
Table 13. Length of school term, selected years, 1900-1958--------------------Table 14. Total number of principals, superintendents, and consultants
per 1,000 pupils in average daily attendance in public primary and sec
ondary schools, selected years, 1900-1958-------------------------------------------Table 15. Total current expenditures (plus debt service) for public pri
mary and secondary education, selected years, 1900-1958_____________
Table 16. Total current expenditure (plus debt service) for public pri
mary and secondary education minus auxiliary services, selected years.
1900-1958___________________________________________________________1
Table 17. Income elasticities of select local public services, St. Louis
city-county area, 1951-52 and 1954-55________________________________
STUDY PAPER NO. 5, “ TRENDS IN THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND
MEDICAL CARE,” BY MARKLEY ROBERTS
Introduction and summary_____________________________________________
Chapter 1. Demand for medical care____________________________________
Total demand______________________________________________________
Health consciousness___________________________________________
Total spending________________________________________________
Private demand_____________________________ ______________________
Total personal consumption spending__________________________
Family medical care spending__________________________________
Growth of prepayment_________________________________________
Health needs of older people___________________________________
Public spending____________________________________________________
Public support for health and medical care_____ _______________
Federal support for research____________________________ ^_____
Demand for hospital services_______________________________________
Trend to hospitals for health care______________________________
Hospitalization insurance______________________________________
Utilization by older people_____________________________________
Mental illness and chronic diseases_____________________________
Chapter 2. Supply of medical care_______________________ ______________
Organization of medical services____________________________________
Quality changes in medical care____________________________________
Supply of medical personnel________________________________________
Physicians (medical doctors)___________________________________
Dentists______________________________ ________________________
Nurses________________________________________________________
Other health workers__________________________________________
Supply of hospital facilities_______ _________________________________
Increases and shortages________________________________________
Types of hospitals_____________________________________________
Distribution of hospitals_______________________________________
Hospital services and costs. __________ _________________________
Hospital construction__________________________________________
Chapter 3. The price index of medical care_____________________________
Trends_____________________________________________________________
Limitations________________________________________________________
Chapter 4. A look ahead_______________________________________________
Expanding demand for medical care________________________________
Inadequacies of supply_____________________________________________
Continuing price inflation_________________________________ ________
Providing an adequate supply of medical care_________________ _____
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IN DEX TO STUDY PAPERS
60
Study Paper No. 5— Continued
CHARTS
Chart 1. Spending for health and medical care__________________________
Chart 2. Personal consumption spending (for medical care)______________
Chart 3. Growth of health insurance coverage_____ :_____________________
Chart 4. Supply of physicians, dentists, and nurses, in relation to popula
tion, with projections on the basis of currently predicted output of medi
cal, dental, and nursing needs_________________________________________
Chart 5. Ownership of hospital beds____________________________________
Chart 6. Medical care price index and selected components. ____________
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TABLES
Table 1. Private and public spending for health and medical care, selected
fiscal years, 1929-58-________________________________________________
Table 2. Personal consumption spending for medical care, 1946-58______
Table 3. Charges incurred by families for health services, by income and
health insurance status_______________________________________________
Table 4. Family outlays for medical care as a percentage of family income,
by income and health insurance status________________________________
Table 5. Growth of health insurance coverage, number of people protected
against hospital expenses, surgical expenses and regular medical expenses.
Table 6. Health problems of people aged 65 and over, 1957-58__________
Table 7. Public spending for health and medical care, selected fiscal years,
1929-58______________________________________________________________
Table 8. Physicians, dentists, and nurses: Trends and projections of
supply________________________ _______________________________________
Table 9. Ownership of hospital beds____________________________________
Table 10. Hospital personnel and payroll costs__ _______________________
Table 11. Hospital construction, value put in place and value by source
of funds________________________________________________ _____________
Table 12. Relative importance of medical care price index components as
percent of Consumer Price Index, all-items total______________________
Table 13. Medical care price index, selected items and groups, 1947June 1959. _________________________________________________. _________
52
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82
STUDY PAPER NO. 6, “ THE EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL
UNEMPLOYMENT,” BY BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Summary----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Introduction_____________________________________________ __________
The extent of short-term frictional unemployment------------------------ Long-term employment____________________________________________
Structural employment_____________________________________________
Chapter I. Short- and long-term unemployment----------------- -------------------Current monthly survey data___________________ ___________________
Annual work experience survey data--------------------- — --------------------Characteristics of the short- and long-term unemployed in 1957-------Age and sex_______________________________ ____________________
Marital status_________________________________________________
Color.____ ____________________________________________________
Industry______________________________________________________
Occupation____________________________________________________
Long-term unemployed as a percent of all workers--------------------Appendix I to chapter I ____________________________________________
Source of duration and turnover data-------------- --------------------- Appendix II to chater I ____________________________________________
Selection of period for study______________________:------------------Chapter II. Turnover, or gross changes, in unemployment--------------------How much turnover__________________________________________ _____
Patterns of gross changes in labor force and unemployment-------------Patterns of gross changes between employment and unemployment. .
Chapter III. Unemployment associated with job shifts---------------------------Summary of results______________________________________ __________
1
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38
INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 6—Continued
Frictional unemployment due to mobility------- ------- -----------------------Unemployment related to involuntary and job changing.----------------Duration of unemployment____________________ ____________________
Effect of differences in mobility on unemployment rates------------------Age and sex________________________________________________________
Occupation and industry----------------------- -----------------------------------------Conclusion_________________________________________________________
Chapter IV. Seasonal unemployment___________________________________
Seasonal unemployment in 1957____________________________________
Appendix to chapter IV ____________________________________________
Technical note on seasonal unemployment______________________
Chapter V. Some postwar trends in unemployment_____________________
The trend in total unemployment__________________________________
New versus continuing unemployment______________________________
Changes in labor force patterns and the rate of unemployment______
Other industry-occupation changes and the rate of unemployment—
New workers_______________________________________________________
61
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69
LIST OF CHARTS
Employment status of entrants into the labor force, 1957________________
Industry unemployment rates by seasonal and nonseasonal components,
1957_________________________________________________________________
Job changing and unemployment among persons who worked in 1955____
Seasonal variations in unemployment by age and sex____________________
Summary characteristics of unemployment in a period of high employment.
Trends in unemployment rates, 1948 and 1956__________________________
Unemployment totaling 15 weeks or longer for selected groups during
calendar year 1957------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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13
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1-1.— Persons unemployed 4 weeks or less, by industry group:
January 1955-December 1957_________________________________________
Table 1-2.— Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, by industry group:
January 1955-December 1957________________________________________
Table 1-3.— Duration of unemployment, by age and sex: Annual average,
1957__________________________________________________ ______________
Table 1-4.— Cumulative weeks of unemployment, by age and sex: Calendar
year 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)________________
Table I—5.— Duration of unemployment by color and sex: Annual average,
1957_________________________________________________________________
Table 1-6.— Cumulative weeks of unemployment by color and sex: Calen
dar year 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)____________
Table 1-7.—-Average monthly duration of unemployment by industry,
1957_________________________________________________________________
Table 1-8.— Cumulative weeks of unemployment, by industry division of
longest job: 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)________
Table 1-9.— Persons unemployed a cumulative total of 15 weeks or longer,
by spells of unemployment, by selected characteristics: Calendar year
1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)_____________________
Table 1-10.— Average monthly duration of unemployment, by major
occupation group, 1957_______________________________________________
Table I—11.— Cumulative weeks of unemployment, by occupation of
longest job in 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)_______
Table 1-12.— Persons unemployed a cumulative total of 15 weeks or longer
as a percent of total with work experience, by selected characteristics:
Calendar year 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)______
Table II—1.— Gross changes in unemployment, by type of change: Annual
average, 1957________________________________________________________
Table II-2 .— Gross changes in the labor force, by type of change: Annual
average, 1957________________________________________________________
Table II—3.— Gross changes in the labor force by age and sex: Annual
average, 1957________________________________________________________
Table II-4 .— Gross changes in unemployment, by age and sex: Annual
average, 1957_______________________________________________ ________
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IN D EX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 6— Continued
Table II-5 .— Gross reductions in unemployment, by type, by duration of
unemployment in previous month: Annual average, 1957______________
Table III—1.— Unemployment levels and rates, by job mobility status:
Calendar year 1955___________________________________________________
Table III-2 .— Cumulative weeks of unemployment, by job mobility status:
Calendar year 1955___________________________________________________
Table III-3 .— Unemployment associated with voluntary job mobility,
by personal characteristics: Calendar year 1955_______________________
Table III-4 .— Unemployment associated with voluntary job mobility,
by occupation and industry of longest job in 1955_____________________
Table III—5.— Unemployment and job mobility status, by age and sex:
Calendar year 1955___________________________________________________
Table III-6 .— Unemployment and job mobility status, by major occupa
tion group of longest job in 1955______________________________________
Table 111-7.— Unemployment and job mobility status, by major industry
group of longest job in 1955__________________________________________
Table III-8 .— Job changers with unemployment during 1955___ ._______
Table IV -1.— Distribution of seasonal and nonseasonal unemployment by
industry of last full-time job, 1957____________________________________
Table IV -2.— Total and seasonal unemployment in 1957________________
Table IV -3.— Comparative seasonal unemployment by sex and major age
group between months of peak and low point_________________________
Table V—1.— New, continuing, and total unemployment, 1948-56________
Table V -2.— Selected measures of the duration of unemployment, 1948,
1952, and 1956________________________________________________ ______
Table V -3.— Changes in experienced labor force and unemployed, 1948-56,
by type of activity and class of worker______________________________ _
Table V -4.— Changes in civilian labor force and unemployed, 1948-56,
by age arid sex_______________________________________________________
Table V -5.— Changes in unemployment between 1948 and 1956, by major
industry group for wage and salary workers___________________________
Table V -6.— Changes in unemployment between 1948 and 1956, by major
occupation group_______ _____________________________________________
Table V -7.— Experienced labor force, unemployment, and long-term unem
ployment in goods-producing and service-rendering industries wage and
salary workers, 1956---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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STUDY PAPER NO. 7, “THE INCIDENCE OF INFLATION: OR WHO GETS
HURT?” BY SEYMOUR E. HARRIS, HARVARD UNIVERSITY, CAM
BRIDGE, MASS.
Chapter 1______________________________________________________________
General summary__________________________________________________
Inflation and growth_______________________________________________
Kind of inflation___________________________________________________
Incidence of inflation on Government_______________________________
Welfare programs: Old-age insurance_______________________________
Unemployment compensation._____________________________________
Other income maintenance programs_______________________________
Mortgages and the inflationary process_____________________________
Wages, other shares, and prices_____________________________________
Attempts to beat inflation__________________________________________
Some international aspects_________________________________________
Chapter 2______________________________________________________________
The problem_______________________________________________________
Chapter 3 ______________________________________________________________
Inflation and growth_______________________________________________
Introductory__________________________________________________
Inflation, a necessary cost of grow th?.^________________________
The case for growth___________________________________________
Growth and prices: the historical record________________________
Prices and output— by countries_______________________________
Prices and per capita output in recent years_______ ____________
Creeping inflation leads to what?_______________________________
1
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INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 7— Continued
Recent movements of prices and output in individual countries. _
Chapter 4 ______________________________________________________________
The incidence of inflation on Government__________________________
Introductory__________________________________________________
Distribution of tax burdens among different levels of Govern
ment________________________________________________________
Percentage of changes in assessed valuation of real and personal
property in large cities, 1940-53_____________________________
Some empirical material on the responses of taxes to income and
price changes_______________________________________________
Inflation and the yield of income tax___________________________
Some conclusions______________________________________________
Chapter 5 ______________________________________________________________
Welfare programs and inflation_____________________________________
Introductory__________________________________________________
Adjustment of benefits to rising prices and incomes_____________
Raising maximum covered wages_______________________________
Minimum and maximum benefits and prices___________________
Increased benefits through increased coverage of family members.
Old-age assistance and other assistance programs_______________
Some comments on old-age insurance and assistance__________
Chapter 6 _________________________________ _____________________________
Unemployment compensation______________________________________
Introductory__________________________________________________
1Conclusion____________________________________________________
Chapter 7______________________________________________________________
Income maintenance payments with particular reference to veterans'
programs________________________________________________________
Workmen’s compensation______________________________________
Long-term commitments______________________________________
Veterans’ benefits_____________________________________________
Pension funds_________________________________________________
Chapter 8 ______________________________________________________________
Assets and inflation________________________________________________
Chapter 9 ______________________________________________________________
Mortgages, installment payments, and the inflationary process______
Chapter 10_____________________________________________________________
Wages, other shares, and prices_____________________________________
Introductory; the causes of inflation___________________________
Relation of price movements and other variables_______________
Some historical evidence_______________________________________
Teachers______________________________________________________
Productivity, prices, and wages________________________________
The share going to labor_______________________________________
Inflation and depreciation_____________________________________
Prices and wages in cycles_____________________________________
Conclusion____________________________________________________
Chapter 11_____________________________________________________________
Attempts to beat inflation______________________________ ___________
Chapter 12_____________________________________________________________
Some international aspects_________________________________________
63
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TABLES
Table 3-1. Trend of gross national product and personal consumption,
1839-1959______________________________________________________ _____
Table 3-2. Rise of wholesale prices and industrial output, 1947-57______
Table 4-1. Tax revenues and percent Federal, State, and local tax revenues
of total tax revenues, all levels of Government, 1902, 1927, 1938, 1948,
1957_________________________________________________________________
Table 4-2. Percent tax revenue of general revenue_______________________
Table 4-3. Percent insurance and trust revenue of general revenue______
Table 4-4. Percent selected tax categories to total tax revenue, 1902, 1927,
1938, 1948, and 1957_________________________________________________
Table 4-5. Percentages of family personal income taken by the Federal
individual income tax at successive levels of income, all consumer units,
1941 and 1950____________________ ___________________________________
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IN D E X TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 7— Continued
Table 4-6. Percentage of family personal income taken by the Federal
individual income tax, for quintiles of consumer units ranked by size of
family personal income, 1941 and 1950________________________________
Table 5-1. Social welfare expenditures in the United States under certain
public programs, fiscal years 1934-35, 1945-46, 1956-57_______________
Table 5-2. Average monthly payments to retired worker beneficiaries
under three social insurance programs to veterans of World War I
receiving pensions and to old-age assistance recipients, June 1948 and
June 1958____________________________________________________________
Table 5-3. Old-age, survivors, and disability insurance: Average monthly
old-age and widow’s benefits in current-payment status, in current and
in September 1958 dollars, 1940-58___________________________________
Table 5-4. Annual earnings for a full-time employee, contributions and
benefits under old-age, survivors, and disability insurance, 1935-58____
Table 5-5. Public assistance benefits: Average monthly payments in
current and 1958 dollars, 1940-58_____________________________________
Table 5-6. Legislative chronology of provision for Federal participation in
assistance____________________________________________________________
Table 6-1. Unemployment benefits for full-time work in relation to price
and wage movements— 1939, 1946, 1952, 1957_________________________
Table 6-2. Percentage changes in average monthly cash income and out
lay of household before and during unemployment of claimants in oneand four-person households___________________________________________
Table 6-3. Average monthly wages and unemployment benefits of claim
ants compared with total average monthly cash income of households
before and during unemployment of claimants in one- and four-person
households___________________________________________________________
Table 6-4. Average weekly cash outlay of household on all expenses and
selected types of expenses during unemployment and average weekly
benefit amount of claimants in one- and four-person households_______
Table 6-5. Amount of unemployment insurance payments per dollar of
contribution__________________________________________________________
Table 7-1. Veterans' Administration budget expenditures under present
laws, selected fiscal years, 1940-2000__________________________________
Table 7-2. Estimated total living war veterans and veterans aged 65 and
over, selected dates, 1940-2000_______________________________________
Table 7-3. Public expenditures for income maintenance programs and
the national income, selected years, 1940-85__________________________
Table 7-4. Estimated average cost of veterans’ benefits per serviceman in
each war_____________________________________________________________
Table 7-5. Per capita income in four major wars, compared with veteran
pensions per serviceman in each war, under present laws and assuming
service pension for recent conflicts____________________________________
Table 7-6. Rise in veterans’ benefits for 100 percent disability and rise in
the cost of living, 1914-54, various years______________________________
Table 8-1. The share of national saving in changes in national wealth and
combined net worth, period totals: 1897-1949_________________________
Table 8-2. Comparison of personal saving and net worth changes for the
period 1901-49_______________________________________________________
Table 8-3. Ratio of intangible assets to total assets_____________________
Table 8-4. Percent price-sensitive to total assets, major saver groups,
1900-1949____________________________________________________________
Table 8-5. Debt ratio of major saver groups, 1900, 1929, 1949__________
Table 9-1. Characteristics of one-family new home transactions, FHA,
section 203, 1952 and 1957____________________________________________
Table 9-2. Characteristics of FHA-insured and VA-guaranteed mortgage
loans on new houses, 1948 and 1956___________________________________
Table 10-1. Behavior of selected economic variables for manufacturing
industries, 1949-56_________________________________________ __________
Table 10-2. Major gains by factors, various periods_____________________
Table 10-3. Cost of living and real wages (1890-99 equals 100)__________
Table 10-4. Average rates of increase in productivity, total input per
man-hour, and real hourly earnings, 1889-1957-----------------------------------Table 10-5. Indexes of labor and nonlabor payments per dollar of real
product, prices real product per man-hour, employee compensation per
hour in current and constant dollars, private nonagricultural sector of
the economy, 1947-56________________________________________________
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INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 7— Continued
Table 10-6. Output, real hourly earnings, output per unit of input, and
prices, 1899-1953, (1899 equals 100)--------------------------------------------------Table 10-7. Ratio, rise of real hourly earnings to the increase of the total
output to the total input, 1899-1953--------------------------------------------------Table 10-8. Average hourly earnings, prices, and production in manu
facturing, 1921-38____________________________________________________
Table 10-9. Changes in gross average hourly earnings (including overtime)
wholesale prices, and production (seasonally adjusted) for selected indus
trial groups the three postwar recessions______________________________
Table 11-1. Changes in the nominal value of various types of investments,
1948-58, in current dollars and in dollars of 1948 purchasing power____
Table 11-2. Some common stock declines since 1900 versus consumer
price index___________________________________________________________
Table 12-1. Comparison of domestic inflations, autumn 1957____________
Table 12-2. North America’s trade in manufactures and total, 1955-58-_
STUDY PAPER NO. 8, “ PROTECTION AGAINST INFLATION,” BY H.
HOUTHAKKER, STANFORD UNIVERSITY, STANFORD, CALIF.
Contents:
The summary______________________________________________________
The analysis: Protection against inflation__________________________
The burden of inflation________________________________________
Redistributive effects__________________________________________
A proposal for improved statistics______________________________
The fear in inflation___________________________________________
Hedging against inflation___________________________________________
Miscellaneous items____________________________________________
Equities_______________________________________________________
The pattern of yields_______________________________________________
In the long run________________________________________________
Some reservations_____________________________________________
Will inflation continue?________________________________________
Differences in expectations_____________________________________
Insurance policies linked to share prices________________________
The need for assets_________________________________________________
Two proposals_____________________________________________________
Index bonds___________________________________________________
Increasing the supply of shares_________________________________
The Government bond market_________________________________
Appendix: The return from common stocks_________________ ____ ___
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STUDY PAPER NO. 9, “THE SHARE OF WAGES AND SALARIES IN
MANUFACTURING INCOMES, 1947-56,” BY ALFRED H. CONRAD, HAR
VARD UNIVERSITY, CAMBRIDGE, MASS.
TABLES
Table 1. Income shares— All manufacturing, 1947-56___________________
Table 2. Frequency distribution changes in share of wages and salaries in
manufacturing value added, 1946-57__________________________________
Table 3. Profit margins, 200 large manufacturing corporations___________
Table 4. Simple correlation coefficients: annual changes, all 3-digit indus
tries, 1949-56________________________________________________________
Table 5. Simple correlation coefficients: average annual changes, all 3digit industries, 1949-56______________________________________________
Tables 6 and 7. Regression equations_________________________________ 151,
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145
147
149
150
152
STUDY PAPER NO. 10, “POTENTIAL PUBLIC POLICIES TO DEAL WITH
INFLATION CAUSED BY MARKET POWER,” BY EMMETTE S. BED
FORD
Introduction____________________________________________________________
I. Inflationary concentrations of market power________________________
62808 0 — 61------ 6
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IN D E X
TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 10j—Continued
II. Basic approaches in policy__________________________________________
Introductory comments________________________________________
Corrective forces within the economy__________________________
Demand controls______________________________________________
Antitrust______________________________________________________
Withdrawal of Government support for market power__________
Public consideration of wage and price increases________________
III. Problems involved in public consideration of wage and price increases .
The problem of scope of control________________________________
Prices or both prices and wages_____________________ ______
Increases or increases and failures to reduce prices_________
Industries, companies, or products to be included__________
Criteria of inclusion__________________________________
Market structure_________________________________
Market behavior_________________________________
Inflationary potential____________________________
Conclusion_______________________________________
Width of inclusion____________________________________
Method of decision___________________________________
The problem of standards_____________________________________
Criteria for judgment on price increases___________________
Criteria for judgment on wage increases___________________
Cost of living________________________________________
Comparable wage rates_______________________________
Ability to pay________________________________________
Productivity increases________________________________
Maintenance of purchasing power____________________
Essentiality__________________________________________
Conclusion ; ____________________ __________________________
The problem of type of action_________________________________
The problem of organization___________________________________
IV. Conclusions________________________________________________________
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STUDY PAPER NO. 11, “A BRIEF INTERPRETIVE SURVEY OF WAGEPRICE PROBLEMS IN EUROPE,” BY MARK W. LEISERSON
I.
II.
III.
IV.
Introduction_______________________________________________________
The statistical record______________________________________________
Wage-price stability and the coordination of economic policy_______
Centrally coordinated wage policies________________________________
Netherlands___________________________________________________
Norway_________________________________________________ ______
Sweden_______________________________________________________
United Kingdom______________________________________________
Conditions for effective national wage policy___________________
V. Wage policy by indirection and default_____________________________
Germany______________________________________________________
France________________________________________________________
VI. Conclusions________________________________________________________
Practicability of a national wage policy________________________
Other alternatives_____________________________________________
Final remarks_________________________________________________
Selected bibliography___________________________________________________
Appendix: “ Comparative Notes on Wage-Price Setting in Western
Europe,” by Donald R. Snodgrass____________________________________
Austria____________________________________________________________
Belgium_________________________________________ _________________
Denmark__________________________________________________________
France_____________________________________________________________
Germany__________________________________________________________
Italy_______________________________________________________________
Netherlands________________________________________________________
Norway____________________________________________________________
Sweden____________________________________________________________
United Kingdom___________________________________________________
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IN DEX TO STUDY PAPERS
67
Study Paper No. 11— Continued
TABLES
Table 1. Average annual changes in per capita output and prices, by country, 1949-58______________________________________________________ _
Table 2. Changes in price levels and import prices, by country, 1949-58__
Table 3. Average annual percentage of unemployment, by country, 195056__________________________________________2_______ I _______________
Table 4. Average annual changes in money and real wages in industry, by
country, 1949-58_____________________________________________________
Table 5. Average annual changes in manufacturing output, output per
man-hour, and wage costs, by country, 1950-56_______________________
Table 6. Wage drift in Norwegian and Swedish industries, 1948-56______
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STUDY PAPER NO. 12, “THE LOW INCOME POPULATION AND ECONOMIC
GROWTH,” BY ROBERT J. LAMPMAN
Chapter I. Introduction and summary--------------------------------------------------Introduction_______________________________________________________
Summary__________________________________________________________
Chapter II. Who are the low-income people?____________________________
Numbers below a selected income level______________________________
Composition of the low-income group_______________________________
Size of consumer unit_____________________________________ ____
Age____________________________________________________________
Rural-farm residence___________________________________________
Non white color________________________________________________
Southern region_______________________________________________
Consumer units headed by females_____________________________
Educational attainment of family head_________________________
Employment status and occupation of family head_____________
Industry of family head_____________________________ __________
Summary statement on composition of low-income population_______
Chapter III. How has the low-income problem changed in 10 years?_____
Smaller share of population in low-income status____________________
Process by which change occurred__________________________________
Factors encouraging increase in number of low-income persons.Change among consumer-unit size groups__________________
Change in age_____________________________________________
Changing participation in employment____________________
Factors encouraging reduction of low-income units______________
Summary of changes_______________________________________________
Chapter IV. The future of the low-income problem. _____________________
Projections for the future of numbers in low’-income status--------------Will reduction of poverty be slower in the future?__________________
Evaluation of the Galbraith thesis__________________________________
What groups do not benefit by economic growth?___________________
Low-income group's share of income________________________________
Changes in economic inequality____________________________________
Government policy toward inequality______________________________
Possibilities for the future__________________________________________
A program to hasten the reduction of poverty______________________
Appendix. How many low-income persons are there in the United States?
Alternative estimates_________________________________________________
Number under $2,000 minimum____________________________________
Minimum income varying with family size__________________________
Income defined as personal income__________________________________
The range of estimate______________________________________________
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TABLES
Table 1. Distribution of low income persons by family size, based on
minimum income varying with family size, 1957______________________
Table 2. Distribution of families with income under $2,000 and unattached
individuals with income under $1,000, by age of head, 1957___________
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IN D EX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 12—Continued
Table 3. Distribution of all families and of families with total money
income under $2,000, by residence, 1957_______________________________
Table 4. Distribution of all families and of families with total money
income under $2,000, by color______________________________ __________
Table 5. Percentage distribution of families with income under $2,000, by
region, 1957____________________________________________________ _____
Table 6. Distribution of families with total money income under $2,500, by
occupational group of family head, 1957______________________________
Table 7. Distribution of families with employed family head and total
money income under $2,500, by industry of head, 1957________________
Table 8. Numbers and percent of low income population and percent of
total population having specified characteristics, 1957_________________
Table 9. Percent of consumer units and persons having low-income status
in selected years, 1947-58. Estimated by alternative methods________
Table 10. Distribution and frequency of low income consumer units, by size
of unit, 1947 and 1957________________________________________________
Table 11. Distribution and frequencies of low income families and single
individuals, by age of head, 1947 and 1957____________________________
Table 12. Distribution and frequency of low income families, by employ
ment status of head, 1948 and 1957___________________________________
Table 13. Percentage distribution of persons age 65 and over by total
money income in 1948 and 1957 by sex_______________________________
Table 14. Work experience during the year, by age and sex for the United
States, 1957 and 1950________________________________________________
Table 15. Family composition: Fifths of families ranked by size of money
income, 1948-57______________________________________________________
Table 16. Distribution and frequency of low income families and un
attached individuals by place of residence, 1947 and 1957______________
Table 17. Distribution and frequency of low income families, by occupa
tion of head, 1948 and 1957___________________________________________
Table 18. Distribution and frequency of low income families, by industry of
head, 1948 and 1957__________________________________________________
Table 19. Importance of selected characteristics in future determination of
low income population______________________________________________ _
Table A -l. Percentages of population groups having low income status,
1957, estimated by alternative methods_______________________________
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STUDY PAPER NO. 13, “THE ADEQUACY OF RESOURCES FOR ECONOMIC
GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES,” BY JOSEPH L. FISHER AND
EDWARD BOORSTEIN
Introduction________________________________________________________________39
Chapter 1. Historical background___________________________________________39
Chapter 2. Resources and growth in the modern U.S. economy_________ ____42
Trends in resources consumption, output, employment, prices, and
trade____________________________________________________________ ____42
The future economy and resources__________________________________ ____47
Chapter 3. Future adequacy of selected resources materials__________________ 51
Wood and lumber__________________________________________________ ____51
Oil__________________________________ ______________________________ ____55
Selected metals_________________________________________________________61
Water_______________________________________________ - _____________ ____64
Chapter 4. Summary of trends and problems ahead.------------------------------------- 68
< STUDY PAPER NO. 14, “ LIQUIDITY AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN
THE POSTWAR ECONOMY,” BY JOHN G. GURLEY
3
The growth of liquid assets, 1939-58____________________________________
Liquid assets and interest rates, 1945-58________________________________
6
Postwar behavior of interest rates__________________________________
6
The demand for liquid assets and interest rates_____________________
7
Postwar liquidity ratios and interest rates__________________________
8
Postwar liquidity, interest rates, and prices_____________________________
9
A general equilibrium model________________________________________
9
Alternative adjustment processes___________________________________
13
IN DEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 14— Continued
The postwar adjustment process____________________________________
Summary__________________________________________________________
The market for loanable funds and the creation of liquid assets__________
The demand for loanable funds_____________________________________
The supply of loanable funds_______________________________________
Market equilibrium________________________________________________
Internal and external finance_______________________________________
Creation of financial and liquid assets______________________________
The scope of monetary controls____________________________________
The efficacy of monetary controls in the postwar period_____________
Net issues of primary securities, 1947-58________________________________
Primary security issues and gross national product__________________
Basic determinants of the issues— GNP ratio_______________________
Determinants of postwar ratio of net issues to G N P ________________
Summary__________________________________________________________
The composition of primary security issues, 1947-58______ ______________
Purchases of primary securities, 1947-58________________________________
Direct and indirect finance_________________________________________
Determinants of nonmonetary intermediation_______________________
Monetary and nonmonetary intermediation_________________________
Creation of liquid claims by financial intermediaries_________________
Summary__________________________________________________________
Summary and conclusions_______________________________________________
Appendix____ n_______ _________________________________________________
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CHARTS
Chart 1. Relation between weighted liquidity ratios and corporate bond
yield 1945-59_________________________________________________________
Chart 2. Relation between weighted liquidity ratios and prime commercial
paper rate 1945-59___________________________________________________
Chart 3. Equilibrium in markets for current output and liquid assets-----Chart 4. Position of the economy in early postwar period_______________
Chart 5. Alternative paths of the economy to general equilibrium_______
Chart 6. Relation between prices and interest rates 1946-58------------------Chart 7. Flexibility of prices and interest rates during postwar recessions.
Chart 8. The market for loanable funds_________________________________
Chart 9. Actual and calculated issues— GNP ratios, 1947-58____________
Chart 10. Actual and calculated issues— GNP ratios, 1950-58______ _____
Chart 11. Actual and calculated shares of group one issues in total issues
1947-58______________________________________________________________
Chart 12. Actual and calculated proportions of primary issues purchased
by nonmonetary intermediaries 1947-58______________________________
Chart 13. Actual and calculated ratios of primary security purchases by
financial intermediaries to total issues, 1947-58________________________
Chart 14. Actual and calculated ratios of increase in liquid claims on non
monetary intermediaries to primary issues, 1947-58___________________
Chart 15. Hypothetical demand schedules for money and liquid assets___
Chart 16. Hypothetical demand schedules for money and liquid assets__
Chart 17. Demand schedules for money and liquid assets 1945-58.______
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TABLES
Table 1. Liquid assets of nonfinancial sectors and GNP, 1939-59________
Table 2. Increase in components of liquid assets during 1939-46 and
1946-58__________ ___________________________________________________
Table 3. Short-term and long-term interest rates, 1946-59_______________
Table 4. Real output, liquidity, prices, and interest rates during postwar
period________________________________________ ^______________________
Table 5. Increase in prices and long-term interest rates during 1946-49,
1949-54, and 1954-58________________________________________________
Table 6. Probable movements of prices and interest rates within short
cycles during earlier and later phases of postwar period________________
Table 7. Net issues of primary securities and GNP, 1947-58_____________
Table 8. The issues— GNP ratio and its determinants, 1947-58__________
Table 9. Net issues of primary securities, 1947-58_______________________
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IN DEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study l ’nper Xo. 14— Continued
Table 10. Percentage composition of primary security issues, 1947-58___
Table 11. Net purchases of primary securities by financial intermediaries
and other lenders, 1947-58____________________________________________
Table 12. Percentage of primary issues purchased by monetary system,
nonmonetary intermediaries, and other lenders, 1947-58_______________
Table 13. Basic data for estimating proportion of primary issues purchased
by nonmonetary intermediaries, 1947-58______________________________
Table 14. Primary security purchases by financial intermediaries and the
growth of indirect liquid assets, 1947-58______________________________
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45
STUDY PAPER NO. 15, “ PROFITS, PROFIT MARKUPS, AND PRODUC
TIVITY: AND EXAMINATION OF CORPORATE BEHAVIOR SINCE 1947,”
BY EDWIN KUH
Summary_______________________________________________________________
1. Change in profits________________________________________________
2. Change in markup______________________________________________
3. Some explanations______________________________________________
I. Quarterly variations in corporate profit levels__ .___________________
II. Quarterly variations in profit markups_____________________________
III. Some possible explanations for observed behavior___________________
A. The formation of prices____________________________________
B. Determinants of man-hours and productivity________ ______
C. Conclusions________________________________________________
Appendix A. Description of basic series_________________________________
1. Price index______________________________________________________
2. Estimated man-hours in corporate activity_______________________
3. The construction of the demand ratchet_________________________
4. Approximation for changes in variables, which are products______
5. Means, standard deviations and range for variables in regression
equations____________________________________________ _________
Appendix B. List of symbols___________________________________________
Appendix C. Tables____________________________________________________
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99
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100
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CHARTS
Chart 1. Corporate net value product, wage bill and net profit__________
Chart 2. Net corporate output, gross corporate output, and the corporate
output price index____________________________________________________
Chart 3. Corporate man-hours and wage rate___________________________
Chart 4. Changes in profits, net value product, net output, and prices__
Chart 5. Changes in profits, wage bill, man-hours, and wage rates_______
Chart 6. Price and quantity effect on profit change______________________
Chart 7. Net and gross markup_________________________________________
Chart 8. Markup change and effects from wage rate and man-hour changes
Chart 9. Markup change and effects from weighted price and quantity
changes___________________________________________ ___________________
Chart 10. Relative price-wage variable and output per man-hour division
of markup_______________ _____ ________ _____________________ _____ ___
Chart 11. Relation of man-hours to output during early upswing, late
upswing and downswing:' Intercycle__________________________________
Chart 12. Relation of man-hours to output during early upswing, late
upswing and downswing: Intracycle__________________________________
Chart 13. Scatter diagram of corporate wage rate and average hourly
earnings in manufacturing, 1947-58__________________________________
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TABLES
Table 1. Corporate value product, wage bill, and profits_________________
Table 2. Constant dollar corporate gross and net constant dollar product
and price index of corporate output___________________________________
Table 3. Corporate man-hours and wage rate___________________________
Table 4. Change in profits, change in net corporate value product, and
weighted changes in output and price_________________________________
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104
INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 15— Cont inued
Table 5. Change in wage bill and weighted changes in man-hours and
wage rate____________________________________________________________
Table 6. Profit change divided into quantity and price-wage effects______
Table 7. Net and gross markup_________________________________________
Table 8. Change in net markup and weighted changes in output, price,
man-hours, and wage rate____________________________________________
Table 9. Quantity, price-wage, net value product and wage bill effects on
net markup__________________________________________________________
Table 10. Productivity and price-wage components of net and gross
markup______________________________________________________________
Table 11. Demand ratchet and output divided according to business cycle
phase________________________________________________________________
Table 12. Average hourly earnings in manufacturing and estimated cor
porate wage rate_____________________________________________________
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STUDY PAPER NO. 16, “ INTERNATIONAL EFFECTS OF U.S. ECONOMIC
POLICY,” BY EDWARD M. BERNSTEIN
Chapter I. Summary and conclusions___________________________________
The United States and the world economy------- ------------------------Trade and investment__________________________________________
Aid and Government expenditures abroad______________________
Economic policy and international objectives___________________
Chapter II. The United States in the world economy___________________
Role of the United States______________________________________
United States and world trade__________________________________
Importance of other areas______________________________________
Service transactions____________________________________________
Investment, aid, and Government expenditures_________________
U.S. payments and transfers____________________________________
Chapter III. Fluctuations in prices and production______________________
Fluctuations in prices__________________________________________
Fluctuations in production and employment____________________
Stabilizing effect of the world economy_________________________
Responsibility of individual countries___________________________
Chapter IV. Economic growth and world payments_____________________
Growth in the United States and other regions__________________
Capital, technology and growth________________________________
Increase in trade and investment_______________________________
Payments effects of economic growth___________________________
Chapter V. International trade policy___________________________________
U.S. reciprocal trade policy_____________________________________
Restrictions and discriminations________________________________
Regional preferences and multilateral trade_____________________
Future trade policy____________________________________________
Chapter VI. Food and raw materials problems__________________________
Surplus disposal program______________________________ ________
Agricultural import policy______________________________________
Long-term position of primary products________________________
Fluctuations in prices of primary products______________________
Stabilization of prices and export receipts_______________________
Chapter VII. U.S. private foreign investment___________________________
Direct investment______________________________________________
Portfolio investment and other private credit___________________
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development_______
Cyclical fluctuations in capital flow______________ ______________
Restraint on foreign investment________________________________
Chapter V III. U.S. aid and Government expenditures__________________
International payments through Government account---------------U.S. military expenditures and military grants__________________
Economic aid and Government loans___________________________
Exports and aid_______________________________________________
Chapter IX . The problem of monetary reserves_________________________
Geographic distribution of monetary reserves___________________
Reserve position of the United States___________________________
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INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 10— Continued
U.S. monetary policy and reserves______________________________
Monetary reserves and the IM F ________________________________
Problem of the reserve centers__________________________________
Chapter X . Economic policy and international objectives_______________
Economics and foreign policy___________________________________
Objectives of foreign economic policy___________________________
U.S. resources and free world strength__________________________
A new aid policy_______________________________________________
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CHARTS
Chart 2-1. U.S. balance of payments, 1958_____________________________
Chart 6-1. Relative prices of raw materials, 1958 adjusted for U.S. whole
sale prices____________________________________________________________
Chart 6-2. Prices of three primary products_____________________________
Chart 7-1. U.S. direct investment abroad and investment in plant and
equipment in manufacturing__________________________________________
Chart 7-2. New issues of U.S. corporate and foreign securities__________
Chart 7-3. Remittances from private foreign investment and net private
foreign investment, 1951-59__________________________________________
Chart 9-1. Gold sales and increase in foreign dollar balances____________
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TABLES
Table 2-1. U.S. dollar receipts of the rest of the world, 1950-58_________
Table 2-2. U.S. exports as share of world total (selected years and 195058)________________________________________________i __________________
Table 2-3. U.S. imports as share of world total (selected years and 195058)___________________________________________________________________
Table 2-4. Geographic distribution of U.S. imports, 1957 and 1958_______
Table 2-5. World imports, by countries and regions, 1958_______________
Table 3-1. Wholesale prices in selected countries, 1946-59______________
Table 3-2. Imports of leading industrial countries, 1957 and 1958_______
Table 4-1. Percentage increase in gross national product, adjusted for
prices__________________________ ______________________________________
Table 4-2. Value of world trade, 1948-59________________________________
Table 4-3. Share of countries and groups of countries in world exports,
1951-58______________________________________________________________
Table 4-4. GNP and imports, 1951-58__________________________________
Table 5-1. U.S. imports and weighted average rate of duty, 1931-38 and
1946-58______________________________________________________________
Table 6-1. Government surplus crop holdings___________________________
Table 6-2. Agricultural exports, fiscal years 1955-59_____________________
Table 6-3. Estimates of world exportable production of green coffee, 195051 to 1959-60________________________________________________________
Table 7-1. U.S. net private capital outflow, 1946-58____________________
Table 7-2. U.S. direct investment, new funds, 1946-59__________________
Table 7-3. New funds going into direct investment, by geographic regions,
1956-58______________________________________________________________
Table 7-4. Distribution of U.S. direct investment by industry and area,
end of 1958___________________________________________________________
Table 7-5. New foreign security issues in the United States by areas,
1951-58_______________________________________________ ______________
Table 7-6. U.S. private foreign investment, except direct investment, end
of 1958_______________________________________________________________
Table 8-1. International receipts, payments, and transfers, U.S. Govern
ment, 1958___________________________________________________________
Table 8-2. Principal foreign expenditures and transfers of U.S. Govern
ment, 1946-58________________________________________________________
Table 8-3. U.S. military expenditures abroad, by regions, 1946-58_______
Table 8-4. U.S. military grants, by regions, 1946-58____________________
Table 8-5. Economic grants of the U.S. Government, by regions, 1946-58-_
Table 8-6. U.S. Government net capital outflow, 1946-58_______________
Table 8-7. U.S. Government credits and claims, by regions, end of 1958__
Table 8-8. Interest and principal payments on credits of U.S. Govern
ment, 1946-58________________________________________________________
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IN D EX TO STUDY PAPERS
73
Study Paper No. 10— 'Continued
Table 9-1. Official gold and foreign exchange reserves of countries and
regions___________________________________________________________ .___
Table 9-2. Principal constituents in the U.S. Reserve position, 1950-59__
Table 9-3. Ratio of gross monetary reserves to imports, 1951-58________
Pw
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STUDY PAPER NO. 17, “ PRICES AND COSTS IN MANUFACTURING IN
DUSTRIES,” BY CHARLES L. SCHULTZE AND JOSEPH L. TRYON
I. Introduction_______________________________________________________
Basic method__________________________________________________
Food and kindred products_____________________________________
Data and statistical methods usedl_____________________________
Warnings on the use of the unit cost indexes____________________
II. The pattern of changes in output, prices, and costs__________________
Output________________________________ ________________________
Prices and costs_____________________________________________—
Unit labor costs, average earnings, and demands________________
Wages, productivity, and unit labor costs_______________________
Unit labor costs and “ product mix” ____________________________
Prices and costs in recession and recovery_______________________
Summary of conclusions________________________________________
Appendixes:
Appendix A. Sources of data and derivation of basic series for cost
indexes__________________________________________________________
Wages and salaries____________________________________________
Net business income___________________________________________
Capital consumption allowances_______________________________
Indirect business taxes_________________________________________
Index of physical output_______________________________________
Appendix B. The adjustment of aggregates to convert from a company
reporting basis to an establishment reporting basis________________
Table B -l. Percent of gross product originating subtracted from
and added to each industry to shift the basic series from com
pany reporting basis to establishment reporting basis, 1954___
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7
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TABLES
Table 1. Percent of total change in manufacturing output contributed by
various industries____________________________________________________
Table 2. Unit cost indexes for all manufacturing except petroleum and coal
products_______________ _____________________________________________
Table 3. Point contribution of each industry to unit cost index for all
manufacturing_______________________________________________________
Table 4. Year to year changes in points of manufacturing industries in unit
and cost index for all manufacturing__________________________________
Table 5. Cost indexes for manufacturing industries______________________
Table 6. Percent changes in prices, component costs per unit, gross mar
gins, and output in manufacturing, 1948-56___________________________
Table 7. Relationship of changes in demands, unit labor costs and gross
margins, 1948-56_____________________________________________________
Table 8. Consistency of actual behavior with expectations, 19 manufactur
ing industries, 1948-56_______________________________________________
Table 9. Relationship of change in employment to change in average hourly
earnings of production workers_______________________________________
Table 10. Relationship of changes in output to changes in average hourly
earnings of production workers_______________________________________
Table 11. Relationship of changes in employment to change in average
annual earnings .(wage and salary workers)____________________________
Table 12. Percent changes in compensation per employee, output per manhour, and unit labor costs, manufacturing industries, 1948-56_________
Table 13. Comparison of unit labor costs, average compensation, and
productivity, 15 manufacturing industries, 1948-56___________________
Table 14. Comparison of productivity, average compensation, and unit
labor costs, 15 manufacturing industries, 1948-56_____________________
Table 15. Comparison of 2 indexes of unit labor costs, all manufacturing
industries____________________________________________________________
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INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper Xo. 17— Continued
Table 1G. Changes in various prices in postwar recessions_______________
Table 17. Changes in prices and unit costs in postwar recessions, manu
facturing industries___________________________________________________
Table 18. Behavior of labor cost and capital consumption per unit during
declines and recoveries in output_____________________________________
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STUDY PAPER NO. 18, “ NATIONAL SECURITY AND THE AMERICAN
ECONOMY IN THE 1960’s,” BY HENRY ROWEN
Acknowledgments______________________________________________________
Summary____________________________________________________ _________
1
1
P art I. O ur Security P rospects in the 1960’ s
A. Our major military objectives_______________________________________
Deterring direct attack on the United States____________________
Limiting damage and obtaining best war outcome if deterrence
fails__________________________________________________________
The defense of major allies_____________________________________
Defense of other allies and of the free world_____________________
B. The evolution of U.S. postwar military policy— challenge and response.
The strength of Russian ground forces__________________________
The nuclear breakthrough and beginnings of strategic air power. _
The development of thermonuclear weapons and advances in
rocketry_____________________________________________________
C. The future of general war___________________________________________
The world annihilation view____________________________________
The mutual suicide view________________________________________
The deterrence-plus-insurance view_____________________________
The extended deterrence view___________________________________
The massive retaliation view____________________________________
D. The direct defense of peripheral areas_______________________________
Dependence on tactical nuclear forces___________________________
Establishment of independent nuclear forces____________________
Use of nonnuclear forces________________________________________
E. The arms race and its control_______________________________________
F. Outline for a defense policy__________________________________________
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P art II. D efense and the E conomy
A. How much defense should we bu y?__________________________________
Budget first versus strategy first________________________________
A balanced view________________________________________________
How much defense can we stand________________________________
Allied defense budgets__________________________________________
B. The significance of GNP for war_____________________________________
C. Implications of Communist growth__________________________________
D. Some alternative budget trends______________________________________
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77
STUDY PAPER NO. 19, “ DEBT MANAGEMENT IN THE UNITED STATES,”
BY WARREN L. SMITH
Summary________________________________________________________ ______
Chapter I. The Federal debtjn perspective_____________________________
Introduction__________ T___________________________________________
Budget and debt accounts__________________________________________
The Federal Reserve and debt management_________________________
Net claims against the Federal Government________________________
Debt management and monetary policy____________________________
Changes in the public debt since World War II _____________________
Appendix to Chapter I: The economic significance of the trust funds. .
Chapter II. Present debt management techniques_______________________
Regular bill financing______________________________________________
Tax anticipation financing__________________________________________
Other cash offerings________________________________________________
1
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INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 19— Continued
Refunding operations______________________________________________
Concluding comment_______________________________________________
Chapter III. Recent debt management experience and problems________
Survey of recent debt operations___________________________________
The competitive position of Government securities__________________
Other recent problems______________________________________________
Chapter IV. Economic effects of debt operations________________________
Interest cost to the Treasury_______________________________________
Effects on the level of private expenditures_________________________
Debt management as a species of selective control__________________
The outstanding debt as an automatic stabilizer____________________
Combining interest cost and stabilization effects____________________
The handling of budget deficits and surpluses_______________________
Appendix to chapter IV ____________________________________________
Chapter V. Federal Reserve open market operations____________________
An evaluation of the bills-only policy_______________________________
Advantages of a more flexible open market policy___________________
Conclusion_________________________________________________________
Chapter VI. Some suggestions concerning debt management policy______
A suggested approach to debt management_________________________
Relation of debt management to other policies______________________
Possible innovations in debt management technique_________________
The interest rate ceiling____________________________________________
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90
101
102
107
113
116
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120
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133
135
135
137
142
153
CHARTS
Chart I—1. Percentage distribution of publicly held marketable debt, fiscal
years 1946-58__________________________________.______________________
Chart III—1. Yields on Treasury, corporate, and municipal bonds, 1947-59.
Chart IV -1. Illustrative interest-rate patterns___________________________
Chart IV -2. Term structure of interest rates: March 1958 and August
1959_________________________________________________________________
Chart IV—3. Short-term and long-term markets_________________________
Chart IV -4. Short-term and long-term markets_________________________
Chart IV—5. Long-term debt____________________________________________
Chart V—1. Relation between weekly changes in Treasury bill rate and
weekly changes in free reserves, January 1, 1958, to May 13, 1959_____
Chart V-2. Relation between weekly changes in Treasury bill rate and
weekly changes in yield on long-term Treasury bonds, January 4, 1958,
to May 30, 1959__J_________________________1______________ __________
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84
87
93
94
108
127
128
TABLES
Table 1-1. Ownership of U.S. Government securities, fiscal years 1946-59__
Table 1-2. Administrative budget, public debt change, and resulting
change in Treasury’s cash balance, fiscal years 1947-59_______________
Table 1-3. Relations between surplus or deficit in administrative budget
and surplus or deficit in cash budget: Fiscal years 1947-59____________
Table 1-4. Federal Government cash transactions with public: Fiscal
years 1947-59______________________________________ _________________
Table 1-5. Summary of operations affecting public holdings of Federal
securities: Fiscal years 1947-59______________________________________
Table 1-6. Publicly held debt and gross national product: 1947-58______
Table 1-7. Net public and private debt outstanding: 1947-58___________
Table 1-8. Net interest paid by the Federal Government in relation to
national income: 1947-58________________________________________ ____
Table 1-9. Ownership of the publicly held Federal debt: Fiscal years
1946-59______________________________________________________________
Table 1-10. Composition of the publicly held Federal debt: Fiscal years
1946-59______________________________________________________________
Table II—1. Regular Treasury bills outstanding: July 31, 1959__________
Table II-2. Sales and redemptions of tax anticipation bills and certificates,
fiscal years 1953-59___________________________________________________
Table III—1. Summary of operations affecting the publicly held debt by
quarters, 1951-59_____________________________________________________
Table III-2. Comparison of surplus or deficit in cash budget and in national
income and product accounts budget, 1957-59_____________ ___________
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23
28
29
31
34
38
44
45
57
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IN D EX TO STUDY PAPERS
76
Study Paper No. 19— Continued
Table III-3 . Operations of U.S. savings bond program: Fiscal years
1947-59________________________________ _____________________________
Table IV -1. Factors affecting money supply: December 3 1 ,1954-September
25, 1957______________________________________________________________
Table IV -2. Changes in commercial bank holdings of marketable Treasury
securities by maturity classification for specified periods_______________
Table IV -3. Changes in holdings of Government securities by various
investor groups, December 31, 1955-June 30, 1957____________________
STUDY PAPER NO. 20, ‘T H E POTENTIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN
UNITED STATES,” BY JAMES W. KNOWLES
Page
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103
105
114
THE
PART I
Chapter I. The nature and significance of potential economic growth_____
The Employment Act goals_______________________________________
A dynamic economy______________________ __________________ _____
Economic growth_________________________________________________
Current economic performance____________________________________
Potential output versus capacity__________________________________
The rate of employment__________________________________________
The measurement of potential growth_____________________________
Chapter II. The determinants of potential economic growth_____________
Supply, demand, growth, and output______________________________
Capacity and growth__________________ __________________________
The production function__________________________________________
Production in the individual plant versus the total economy________
The design of an aggregate production function________ •___________
Chapter III. The statistical analysis of output_________________________
The variables and their measurement.____________________________
Three transformations____________________________________________
Fitting the production function to the historical data_______________
The final equation_______________________________________________
Interpreting the production function in economic terms.____ ______
Potential output: 1909-60_______________________________________
Chapter IV. Potential growth: Prospects and problems_________________
Alternative assumptions: 1959-75_________________________________
The alternative projections_______________________________________
Implications of the projections____________________________________
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38
38
40
43
PART II
Technical materials___________________________________________________
45
CHARTS
Chart I. Capacity, output, and potential— an explanatory sketch-----------Chart II. Computed gross stocks of business plant and equipment at con
stant (1959) prices (ratio scale)______________________________________
Chart III. Estimated percentages of original installations of plant and
equipment surviving after the periods indicated-------------------------------Chart IV. Gross national product in constant dollars and related variables,
1909-58________________________________________ - __________________
Chart V. Gross national product in constant dollars, 1909-58, actual versus
predicted___________________________________________________________
Chart VI. Potential gross national product compared to actual 1909-59,
and projected for 1975______________________________________________
6
21
22
24
32
36
TABLES
Table 1. The variables used in the anslysis, and their components, 1909-58.
Table 2. Actual, predicted, and potential gross national product in 1954
dollars for the United States, 1909-60-----------------------------------------------Table 3. Selected indicators of economic growth potentials---------------------
26
37
40
INDEX TO STUDY PAPERS
77
STUDY PAPER NO. 21, “POSTWAR MOVEMENT OF PRICES AND WAGES
IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES,” BY HAROLD M. LEVINSON
Page
I. Introduction_______________________________________________________
1
Sources and limitations________________________________________
1
II. Wage movements in the postwar period____________________________
2
Wage patterns in the postwar period___________________________
7
III. The movement of manufacturing prices____________________________
13
Trends in-specific manufacturing industries.___________________
17
Sources and limitations of d a ta ________________________________
19
IV. Summary__________________________________________________________
21
A PPE N D IXE S
Appendix A. Sources of basic data______________________________________
Appendix B. Cross-section correlation matrixes__________________________
Appendix C. Trends in individual industries relative to all manufacturing.
23
49
54
TABLES
Table 1. Simple cross-section correlation coefficients between wage changes
and selected variables, 1947-58_______________________________________
Table 2. Cross-section regress equations: Wages________________________
Table 3. Simple time series correlation coefficients between annual changes
in wages and selected variables, 1947-58______________________________
Table 4. Time series partial correlation coefficients between annual changes
in wages and employment and profits, 1947-58________________________
Table 5. Changes in wages, profit rates, concentration ratios, union
strength, and employment in manufacturing industries, 1947-53 and
1953-58______________________________________________________________
Table 6. Wage-fringe adjustments in selected manufacturing industries,
1946-58______________________________________________________________
Table 7. Basic trends in the steel and automobile industries, 1947-58__
Table 8. Wholesale price indexes in manufacturing industries, 1947-58 __
Table 9. Simple cross-section correlation coefficients between price
changes and selected variables, 1947-58_______________________________
Table 10. Cross-section regression equations: Prices_____________________
Table 11. Simple time series correlation coefficients between annual
changes in prices and selected variables, 1947-58______________________
Table 12. Time series partial correlation coefficients between annual
changes in prices, output, and hourly earnings, 1947—58_______________
Table 13. Basic trends in all manufacturing, 1947-58___________________
Table 14. Ratio of indexes in specific industries relative to all manufactur
ing, 1947-58_________________________________________________________
SUPPLEM EN TAL STAFF M A TE RIAL TO TH E
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STAFF REPORT
Technical Note No. 1— The service section: Data on output, employment,
prices, and income, by George W. Bleile______________________________
Technical Note No. 2— Productivity and output in the postwar period, by
Thomas A. Wilson____________________________________________________
63
129
STUDY PAPER NO. 22, “ AN EVALUATION OF ANTITRUST POLICY: ITS
RELATION TO ECONOMIC GROWTH, FULL EMPLOYMENT, AND
PRICES,” BY THEODORE J. KREPS
Introduction_________________________________________________________
I. What is the meaning of antitrust policy___________________________
II. Diversity of views concerning its impact__________________________
1. Antitrust policy potentially and actually beneficial__________
German cartel advocates disagree______________________
Prewar regimes in France, Italy, and Japan disagree____
Antitrust policy and totalitarianism____________________
2. Antitrust policy beneficial if adequately enforced___________
Hearings on antitrust, policy in 1955___________________
The Antimerger Act of 1950___________________________
The ambivalent role of government____________________
Exemptions from antitrust laws_______________________
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IN DEX TO STUDY PAPERS
Study Paper No. 22— Continued
3. Antitrust policy potentially effective with substantive amendments__________________________________________________
Views of small automobile manufacturer_______________
Reforms advocated by a distinguished legislator________
4. Antitrust policy unworkable and detrimental_______________
The NR A interlude___________________________________
Resurgence of resistance to antitrust laws after World
War I I ____________________________________________
III. Is the relation to antitrust policy to economic growth, employment,
and price levels measurable?____________________________________
Direct performance relationships not measurable______________
Indirect measurement via impact on structure_________________
IV, The relation of antitrust policy to economic growth________________
V. The relation of antitrust policy to ‘full” employment______________
Oligopsony in labor markets__________________________________
Labor unions and the antitrust laws______________ ___________
Complaint against high wages________________________________
VI. The relation of antitrust policy to price levels______________________
Antitrust policy and farm prices______________________________
Target-return pricing________________________________________
Summary of findings__________________________________________________
Appendix.— Billionaire enterprises— Business versus Governmental, ranked
according to size____________________________________________________
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42
47
STUDY PAPER NO. 23, “THE STRUCTURE OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN AREAS
OF SUBSTANTIAL LABOR SURPLUS,” BY BUREAU OF LABOR STA
TISTICS
Part I__________________________________________________________________
Unemployment_____________________________________________________
Personal characteristics of the unemployed_____________________
Industry and occupation of latest job held by the unemployed__
Duration of unemployment____________________________________
Employment_______________________________________________________
Industry and occupation_______________________________________
Hours of work_________________________________________________
Population and labor force_________________________________________
Appendix to part I _________________________________________________
List of areas included in each class_____________________________
Sampling errors for estimates of characteristics of the labor force
from the MLRF sample_____________________________________
Standard error of level of estimates______ ______________________
Standard errors of percentages_________________________________
Part II_________________________________________________________________
Introduction_______________________________________________________
Age, sex, and marital status________________________________________
Industry and occupation___________________________________________
Exhaustions, duration, and spells of insured unemployment_________
Appendix to part I I ________________________________________________
Sampling errors for estimates of characteristics of the insured un
employed from the 0.2 percent sample_______________________
The approximate sampling error in percentage terms____________
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22
22
22
24
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27
34
34
34
CHARTS
Chart 1. Industrial composition of the unemployed, by loan market area
grouping: Spring 1959________________________________________________
Chart 2. Long-term and short-term unemployed, by labor market area
grouping: Spring 1959________________________________________________
Chart 3. Labor force participation rates for men by age, by labor market
area grouping: Spring 1959___________________________________________
. Chart 4. Labor force participation rates for women by age, by labor market
area grouping: Spring 1959___________________________________________
Chart 5. Occupational distribution of the insured unemployed in distressed
and other areas: July 1956 to June 1957_______________________________
10
12
18
19
33
IN DEX TO STUDY PAPERS
79
Study Paper No. 23— Continued
TABLES
Table 1. Unemployment by age and sex, by labor market area class,
spring 1959__________________________________________________________
Table 2. Unemployment by marital status, color, and sex, labor market
area class, spring 1959________________________________________________
Table 3. Unemployment by industry of last job, labor market area class,
spring 1959__________________________________________________________
Table 4. Unemployment by occupation group, by labor market area class,
spring 1959__________________________________________________________
Table 5. Unemployment, by duration, by labor market area class, spring
1959_________________________________________________________________
Table 6. Eemployment by industry group, by labor market area class,
spring 1959__________________________________________________________
Table 7. Employment by occupation group, by labor market area class,
spring 1959__________________________________________________________
Table 8. Employment in nonfarm industries by hours of work, by labor
market area class, spring 1959________________________________________
Table 9. Civilian noninstitutional population by age and sex, by labor
market area class, spring 1959________________________________________
Table 10. Labor force status by age and sex, by labor market area class,
spring 1959__________________________________________________________
Table 11. Insured unemployment by type of area, by age, sex, and marital
status, July 1956 to June 1957________________________________________
Table 12. Insured unemployment by type of area, by industry, July 1956
to June 1957_________________________________________________________
Table 13. Insured unemployment by type of area, by occupation, July
1956 to June 1957______________________________________________ _____
Table 14. Duration and spells of insured unemployment by type of area,
by age, sex, and marital status, July 1956 to June 1957________________
Table 15. Duration and spells of insured unemployment by type of area,
by industry, July 1956 to June 1957__________________________________
Table 16. Duration and spells of insured unemployment by type of area, by
occupation, July 1956 to June 1957_____ ____ _________________________
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27
28
30
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INDEX TO STAFF REPORT
STAFF REPORT ON EMPLOYMENT, GROWTH, AND PRICE LEVELS
Page
Letters of transmittal-_________________________________________________
V
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
C hapter Summaries
1. Introduction________________________________________________
xxi
2. Economic growth in the long run____________________________ xxiii
3. The slowing down of the economy during recent years________
xx v
4. Potential growth____________________________________________
xxvi
5. The postwar inflation_______________________________________
xxvi
6. The problem of unemployment______________________________x x v m
7. The problem of American agriculture________________________ x x ix
8. Fiscal policy____________________________________ _______ ____ x x x i
9. Monetary policy and debt management_____________________ x x x m
10. Public policy and market power___________________________x x x v n
11. America’s role in a changing world economy______________ x x x v m
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
C hapters
1. Introduction________________________________________________
2. Economic growth in the long run____________________________
3. The slowing down of the economy in recent years____________
4. Potential growth____________________________________________
5. The postwar inflation_______________________________________
6. The problems of unemployment_____________________________
7. The problems of American agriculture_______________________
8. Fiscal policy___________________________ _____________________
9. Monetary policy and debt management______________________
10. Public policy and market power____________________________
11. U.S. position in the World economy________________________
1
33
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97
103
161
189
205
315
431
441
C hapter 1. I ntroduction
I. Our economic objectives__________________________________________
A. Economic growth________________________________________
1. What is economic growth?________________________
2. How is economic growth used?____________________
(a) Rising standards of living________________
( b) Public responsibilities____________________
1. The military security of the American
people___________________________
2. Economic aid to underdeveloped
countries________________________
3. Domestic public responsibilities_____
B. The importance of high-level employment________________
C. The importance of price-level stability____________________
II. The American growth potential__________________________________
III. The recent record________________________________________________
IV. Economic growth and price stability______________________________
A. Three theories of growth and prices_______________________
1. Promoting growth by fighting inflation____________
2. Fighting inflation by promoting growth___________
3. Growth and inflation as separate problems------------B. Inflation and growth in recent years: An analysis_________
1. Causes of the recent inflation______________________
(a) Inflation and economic instability------------(b) The exercise of market power____________
(c) Inflation in the services sector____________
2. The slowdown in economic growth: Its causes--------(a) Economic instability_________________________
( b) Inadequate growth of demand_______________
(c) Trouble in the goods sector__________________
3. The causes of economic instability____________________
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IN DEX TO STAFF REPORT
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Page
V. Economic policies for growth and price-level stability_____________
A. Economic policy in recent years______ ____________________
1. Monetary policy__________________________________
2. Fiscal policy____ _________________________________
B. Monetary and fiscal policies to reconcile price level stability
' and economic growth__________________________________
C. Debt management_______________________________________
D. Policies to reduce the inflationary effect of the exercise of
market power__________________________________________
(a) An annual labor-management conference_________
(b) Direct intervention in key price and wage decisionsE. Increasing the supply of services__________________________
F. Improvement in the price indexes_________________________
G. Policies to strengthen long-term growth__________________
VI. The problems of American agriculture____________________________
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30
30
31
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C hapter 2. E conomic G rowth in the L ong R un
I. The measurement of economic growth____________________________
II. The long-run record of growth___________________________________
A. The growth of output____________________________________
B. The growth of consumption______________________________
C. The rate of growth of output has been uneven____________
D. The allocation of growth: Uses of G N P__________________
III. Factors in our growth____________________________________________
A. The growth of supply versus demand_____________________
IV. The long run growth of supply___________________________________
A. Expansion of labor force_________________________________
B. Shortening number of hours of work______________________
C. Rising productivity______________________________________
D. Capital__________________________________________________
E. The rising quality of the labor force______________________
1. Education________________________________________
2. Increasing skills__________________________________
3. Improving health_________________________________
F. Technological progress___________________________________
G. Resources________________________________________________
H. Interindustry shifts______________________________________
I. Concluding comment on the long-run increase in the
supply of output_______________________________________
V. The longrun growth of demand___________________________________
VI. Longrun policies for growth______________________________________
A. Provision for an adequate growth of demand_____________
B. Improvement of the labor force: The potential of education,
C. Improvement of the labor force: Health__________________
D. Maintaining the rate of productivity advance: Facilitating
the introduction of new technology_____________________
E. Maintaining the rate of productivity advance: Raising
skills__________________________________________________
F. The promotion of science and technology_________________
G. Accelerating the accumulation of capital__________________
H. Resource policy__________________________________________
I. Strengthening the competitiveness of the economy and
improving the allocation of resources___________________
J. Preservation of a stable political and economic system____
K. Encouragement of individual initiative-__________________
L. Provision of public services and investments______________
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58
59
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C hapter 3. T he Slowing D own of the E conomy D uring R ecent Y ears
I. Introduction_____________________________________________________
II. The magnitude and cyclical characteristics of the decline in growth - _
III. Further evidence of weakness: underutilization of labor and capital.
A. Capital__________________________________________________
B. Labor____________________________________________________
C. Underutilization of labor and capital in the 1958-59
recovery_______________________________________________
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70
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INDEX TO STAFF REPORT
IV. Causes of the decline: Trouble in the goods sectors_______________
A. Why growth slowed down at the end of 1955_____________
B. The shift toward service__________________________________
1. Demographic changes_____________________________
2. The erosion of the growth of consumers purchasing
power______ ___________________________________
(a) The growth of disposable income has
slowed down___________________________
(b) Service expenditures as family overhead
costs_____________________________________
C. Summary of trouble in the goods sectors__________________
V. Results of the trouble in the goods sector: Underutilization and
slowed growth of productivity__________________________________
A. The absorption of labor by the services and trade sectors. _
1. Was labor pulled into services and trade by demand.
2. Services as a sponge for labor____________________ _
3. Meaning of shift for growth_______________________
B. The decline in the growth of aggregate productivity______
1. The effect of labor shifting between sectors_______
2. The behavior of productivity between sectors_____
C. Summary of analysis of productivity growth______________
VI. Summary and policy implications____________ ____________________
A. Summary________________________________________________
B. Policy implications_______________________________________
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C hapter 4.— P otential G rowth
The determinants of potential economic growth_________________________
1. Labor___________________________________________________________
2. The stock of capital_____________________________________________
3. The age of capital_______________________________________________
4. All other variables______________________________________________
The potential economic growth to 1975__________________________________
97
98
98
99
99
100
Chapter 5.— T he P ostwar I nflation
The historical record____________________________________________________
Some problems of the price indexes_____________________________________
The gains and losses from inflation______________________________________
The distribution of income_________________________________________
The distribution of wealth__________________________________________
The volume of real output and its rate of growth___________________
Theories of the inflationary process_____________________________________
Demand-pull inflation______________________________________________
Market-power inflation_____________________________________________
Structural inflation_________________________________________________
The complex real world____________________________________________
The Product market____________________________________________________
Manufacturing_____________________________________________________
Steel__________________________________________________________
Machinery_____________________________________________________
Other manufacturing___________________________________________
Construction_______________________________________________________
The Service industries__________________________________________________
The diverse nature of the Service industries_________________________
Medical care___________________________________________________
Unskilled services___________ __________________________________
Skilled services________________________________________________
Summary______________________________________________________
The labor market:
The movement of industrial wages__________________________________
The structure of wages_____________________________________________
Wage trends in nonmanufacturing industries________________________
Wage “ patterns” in the postwar period____________________________ _
Developments during 1955-58__________________________________
General conclusions________________________________________________
Summary__________________________________________________________
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112
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114
115
115
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130
131
133
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150
154
156
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C h a p t e r 6 .— T h e P r o b l e m
of
U nem ploym ent
Page
Introduction___________________________________________________
161
The historical record____________________________________________________ ___162
Long-term trends______________________________________________________162
Postwar experience_________________________________________________ ___162
Effect of recessions_________________________________________________ ___162
Unemployment in prosperous times________________________________ ___165
Unemployment of long duration____________________________________ ___167
Who are the unemployed___________________________________________ ___167
By age________________________________________________________ ___167
By sex____________________________________________________________168
By major occupation group____________________________________ ___168
Unemployment a growing problem______________________________________ ___170
Structural unemployment rising____________________ _______________ ___170
Characteristics of areas with persistent labor surplus___________ ___176
Chronically depressed areas_____________________________________________ ___178
Major areas with chronic labor surpluses___________________________ ___179
Causes of chronically depressed conditions__________________________ ___179
Outlook for depressed areas____________________________________________180
Difficulties of business revival______________________________________ ___181
Long-term unemployment not merely a problem of depressed areas______ ___182
Policies for dealing with unemployment_________________________________ ___183
Reduction of frictional unemployment______________________________ ___183
Policies for cyclical unemployment_____________________________________183
Policies relating to structural unemployment________________________ ___184
(a) Relocation of workers_________________________________________184
(b) Training and retraining workers____________________________ ___185
(c) Income maintenance for persistent unemployment__________ ___185
(d) Aid for chronically depressed areas____________________________185
Federal policy: What has been done?____________________ ___185
State and local efforts______________________________________ 186
Outlines of Federal policy for depressed areas____________ ___186
C hapter 7. T he P roblems of A merican A griculture
Introduction____________________________________________________________ ___189
I. The problems of overproduction__________________________________189
II. Falling farm incomes_________ ^_____________ '_________________ ___191
III. The stability of farm incomes_________________________________ • 195
IV. Poverty in agriculture____________________________________________195
V. The accumulation of surpluses and the drain on the Federal
budget_____________________________________________________ __ 196
VI. Agriculture and the price level. ________________________________ ___198
VII. Policies for American agriculture______________________________ ___200
Policies to deal with overproduction and falling farm in
comes__________________________________________________ ___200
Policies for low-income farmers___________________________ __ 203
C hapter 8. F iscal P olicy
I. Fiscal policy and the Employment Act’s objectives_________________ ___205
A. Dimensions of fiscal policy_________________________________ __ 207
1. Short-run economic stabilization____________________ __ 207
2. Secular focus on economic growth___________________ __ 208
B. Constraints against the use of fiscal policy to achieve the Em
ployment Act’s objectives________________________________ __ 208
C. The mechanics of fiscal policy______________________________ __ 210
(1) Basic budget-income relationships__________________ ___210
(2) Differences in effects on income of different types of
expenditures and revenue sources________________ __ 211
(3) Built-in fiscal stabilizers___________________________ __ 212
(4) Repercussions of fiscal developments on monetary
conditions_______________________________________ __ 212
(5) The impact of Government orders on economic activ
ity______________________________________________ __ 213
INDEX TO STAFF REPORT
II. The record of postwar fiscal policy___________________________________
A. The stabilization record____________________________________
1. Postwar reconversion and expansion: 1946-48_______
(a) Reconversion: 1946________________________
( b) Expansion: 1947___________________________
(c) The 1948 boomlet and tapering off__________
(id) Overall appraisal of fiscal policy, 1946-48___
2. The recession of 1949_______________________________
3. Recovery and Korea: 1950-53______________________
4. The 1953-54 recession_______________________________
5. Recovery and boom: 1954-55_______________________
(a) Recovery in 1954___________________________
(b) The 1955 boom ____________________________
6. Inflation on the level: 1956-57. _____________________
7. Recession again: 1957-58___________________________
8. Recovery and expansion, mid-1958 and mid-1959----B. Secular changes in the Federal fiscal framework_____________
1. The decline in fiscal restraint________________________
2. The change in mix of fiscal and monetary policies___
3. Secular trends in the Federal tax structure__________
4. Implications of secular trends in Federal expenditures
for economic stability_____________________________
III. Improving Federal fiscal policy for economic growth and stability___
A. Increasing the contribution of Federal fiscal policy to economic
stability_________________________________________________
B. Changes in the framework of Federal fiscal policy in the inter
est of a higher rate of growth____________________________
85
Page
215
215
217
217
220
222
225
227
231
238
242
242
244
245
250
253
255
256
258
260
262
263
263
268
C hapter 9. M onetary P olicy and D ebt M anagement
I. Monetary policy and debt management since 1946__________________
A. Preaccord monetary debt policy____________________________
The wartime background_______________________________
The immediate postwar situation_______________________
Monetary-debt policy in 1947-48_______________________
The 1949 recession_____________________________________
Recovery and the beginning of the Korean war_________
The Treasury-Federal Reserve controversy and the
Douglas committee report__________________________
The Treasury-Federal Reserve accord of March 1951___
B. Monetary-debt policy since the Treav irv-Federal Reserve
accord___________________________________________________
Immediate postaccord policies_________________________
The 1950 boom in residential construction______________
Monetary policy in 1951-52___________________________
The 1953 changes in open-market policy: the adoption of
bills only________ ___________________________________
The new administration’s attitudes toward debt manage
ment________________________________________________
Monetary-debt policies in the first half of 1953_________
The recession of 1953-54_______________________________
Debt management during the recession_________________
Easy money and the expansion in residential construc
tion_________________________________________________
The beginning of restrictive monetary policy in early
1955_________________________________________________
Residential construction in 1955-57____________________
Consumer credit and the automobile boom in 1955_____
Monetary and economic developments during 1955—57 __
Commercial bank adjustments, 1955-57________________
Fiscal policy and debt management in 1955-57_________
The recession of 1957-58_______________________________
The beginning of recovery in 1958______________________
Debt management in 1957-58__________________________
The speculative episode of mid-1958_______ ____________
Interest rate adjustments in 1958-59___________________
Monetary policy in 1958-59___________________________
Summary of monetary-debt policy since the accord_____
315
315
315
317
318
321
321
322
323
324
324
324
325
325
326
329
329
331
332
332
333
333
334
337
338
338
339
340
340
341
342
343
86
IN DEX TO STAFF REPORT
Page
II. Some limitations on the overall effectiveness of monetary policy_____
A. The effects of commercial bank portfolio adjustments_______
B. Adjustments in corporate liquidity_________________________
C. Effects of financial intermediaries on velocity_______________
D. Changes in holdings of Treasury securities by investor groups.
E. Other offsets to monetary controls__________________________
F. Why can’t induced velocity changes be offset?______________
1. Need to keep the financial market on an even keel____
2. Debt management problems_________________________
3. Uncertainty_________________________________________
4. Uneven incidence of monetary policy________________
Summary of limitations on overall effectiveness of monetary
policy_______________________________________________________
III. The effect of general credit controls on the major sectors of the econ
om y_____________________________________________________________
A. Residential construction____________________________________
B. Business plant and equipment expenditures: General_______
C. Plant and equipment: Public utilities_______________________
D. Effects on small versus large firms__________________________
E. State and local government expenditures___________________
F. Consumer durable goods___________________________________
G. Inventory investment______________________________________
H. Lags in monetary policy____________________________________
I. Concluding comment_______________________________________
Summary_________________________j ____________________________
IV. Possibilities of making monetary policy more effective______________
A. Policies directed at stable growth of output_________________
Plant and equipment__________________________________
1. Increasing the influence of the interest rate_____
2. Other possibilities______________________________
Consumer durable goods_______________________________
Inventory investment_____________________________
Residential construction_______________________________
Summary______________________________________________
B. Monetary policy and inflation______________________________
C. Alternative proposals for monetary policy__________________
1. Steady growth of the money supply_________________
2. Continuation of present policies_____________________
D. Techniques and administration of monetary controls________
The discount rate______________________________________
Reserve requirement changes__________________________
Open market operations________________________________
Administrative arrangements__________________________
Summary of suggestions for making monetary policy more effec
tive_________________________________________________________
V. Debt management__________________________________________________
The size of the debt___________________ ________________________
Interest cost of the debt_______________________________________
Volume of debt operations_____________________________________
Composition of the debt_______________________________________
Ownership of the debt_________________________________________
1. Investors whose holdings have declined steadily_________
2. Investors whose holdings have increased steadily________
3. Investors whose holdings have fluctuated substantially__
The competitive position of Government securities_____________
Principles of debt management_________________________________
1. Interest-rate effects_____________________________________
2. Liquidity effects________________________________________
Interest cost of the debt as a policy consideration_______________
Combining economic stabilization and cost minimization_______
Present debt management techniques__________________________
Bill financing______________________________________________
Fixed-price issues__________________________________________
Underwriting of short-term cash offerings__________________
Refunding operations______________________________________
344
346
349
351
356
357
359
359
360
360
361
361
362
363
368
376
378
381
385
390
392
393
393
394
394
396
396
398
398
399
400
401
401
403
403
404
405
405
405
406
407
408
409
409
411
412
412
414
414
415
415
415
416
416
417
418
419
420
420
420
421
421
INDEX TO STAFF REPORT
V. Debt management— Continued
A program for improved debt management_____________________
Reducing the magnitude of the problem___________________
1. Less restrictive monetary policy____________________
2. A better “ mix” of monetary policies________________
3. Greater reliance on selective credit controls_________
4. Open market operations versus reserve requirement
changes__________________________________________
Possible improvements in debt management____________________
1. Auctioning of longer term securities_____________________
2. Frequent small offerings________________________________
3. Regularizing debt operations___________________________
4. More effective underwriting____________________________
5. Better selling organization______________________________
6. Elimination of erratic fluctuations in bond prices________
7. Advance refunding_____________________________________
8. Call features___________________________________________
9. Purchasing-power bonds________________________________
The interest-rate ceiling________________________________________
Summary concerning debt management________________________
87
Page
422
422
422
422
422
423
424
424
425
425
425
426
426
426
427
427
427
428
C hapter 10.— P ublic P olicy and M arket P ower
Three alternative approaches____________________________________________
Policies to reduce market power and increase competition________________
Antitrust action____________________________________________________
Recommendations for strengthening antitrust__________________
Reductions of tariffs________________________________________________
The antitrust laws and labor unions________________________________
Policies to encourage businessmen and labor to restrain their use of market
power________________________________________________________________
Greater Government participation in the price-wage setting process______
Summary_______________________________________________________________
432
432
432
433
434
434
436
437
439
C hapter 11. U.S. P osition in the W orld E conomy
Introduction____________________________________________________________
The postwar behavior of the U.S. balance of payments__________________
1. The accounting framework______________________________________
2. An overall view of the postwar record 1946-58___________________
The U.S. overall payments balance__________________________
The gold drain______________________________________________
The export balance_________________________________________
Net governmental expenditures abroad______________________
Private capital balances_____________________________________
Errors and omissions________________________________________
Net private capital flows____________________________________
Net Government capital outflows___________________________
Summary of changes in the items in the balance of payments. _
Some relationships among the items in the balance of pay
ments____________________________________________________
The U.S. trade position in the postwar period___________________________
1. The overall behavior of the trade balance________________________
2. The U.S. share of world trade_________________________________ ...
3. Distribution of U.S. merchandise trade by area, 1946-58_________
4. Distribution of U.S. merchandise exports by kind, 1946-50_______
5. Changes in the market shares of U.S. exports____________________
Wage-price comparisons________________________________________________
The special case of steel____________________________________________
The financial structure of U.S. private foreign investment, 1946-58--------U.S. foreign investment in the postwar period___________________________
The value of U.S. direct foreign investments, 1950-58_______________
U.S. Government foreign expenditure balances__________________________
Economic grants___________________________________________________
Government net capital outflow____________________________________
U.S. military expenditures abroad__________________________________
Defense expenditures abroad for goods and services by major category,
441
441
441
443
443
443
446
446
446
446
447
447
448
448
451
451
452
454
455
456
461
463
464
466
467
470
471
471
472
473
88
IN DEX TO STAFF REPORT
The impact of inadequate international liquidity upon the U.S. balance of
payments_____________________________________________________________
The impact of transitory factors upon the U.S. balance of payments,
1947-58-_____________________________________________________________
Other special factors of major importance___________________________
The growth of regionalism______________________________________________
Review and discussion of the findings_______________________________
1. The gold outflow_____________________________________________
2. U.S. export competitiveness__________________________________
3. The problem of international liquidity________________________
4. The alternative______________________________________________
5. The functions and problems of a key currency nation_________
6. The problem of international liquidity_______________________
7. The problem of regionalism__________________________________
8. Conclusions__________________________________________________
Page
475
480
482
482
486
486
486
487
487
487
488
488
489
C harts
Chart 2-1 Aggregate gross national product— Current and constant
(1929) prices_________________________________________________________
Chart 2-2. Real gross national product (1929 prices)—-Aggregate and
per head______________________________________________________________
Chart 2-3. Personal consumption expenditures (1929 prices)— Aggregate
and per full consumer------------ ------------------------------------------------------------Chart 2-4. GNP and its allocation______________________________________
Chart 2-5. Persons engaged, 1929=100_________________________________
Chart 2-6. Average weekly hours— Production workers, manufacturing. _
Chart 3-1. GNP in constant (1954) dollars, index numbers______________
Chart 3-2. Capacity and output in manufacturing, 1948-59_____________
Chart 3-3. Unemployment rate, 1946-59 (quarterly, seasonally adjusted) _
Chart 3-4. Consumer durable expenditures, and housing starts (seasonally
adjusted at annual rates)_____________________________________________
Chart 3-5. GNP components, in constant dollars (1954)_________________
Chart 3-6. Nonagricultural employment— Analysis of increase by industry,
1953-57 and 1953-59_______________ ,_________________________________
Chart 3-7. National income per person participating in production— in
constant dollars— Services, 1929-58 (selected years)— Trade, 1929-57. _
Chart 5-1. Wholesale Price Index, 1720-1958, and Consumer Price Index,
1800-1958____________________________________________________________
Chart 5-2. Rates of unemployment, major sectors, 1946-58_____________
Chart 5-3. Relationship between percentage changes in earnings and rates
of unemployment, 1947-58____________________________________________
Chart 5-4. Distribution of industries, by amount of wage increases, selected
periods, 1947-58_____________________________ ________________________
Chart 5-5. Negotiated settlements, first 6 months 1955 and 1959________
Chart 6-1. Unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force,
seasonally adjusted, 1948-50, 1953-55, and 1957 to date_______________
Chart 6-2. Comparison of actual and projected total labor force, annual
average, 1950-59_____________________________________________________
Chart fr-3. Employment in three postwar recessions, selected industries,
seasonally adjusted___________________________________________________
Chart 6-4. Long-term unemployment in three recessions— persons unem
ployed 15 weeks or more_____________________________________________
Chart 6-5. Employment in goods-producing industries compared with
employment in service industries, annual averages, 1919-58___________
Chart 7-1. Productivity of farm labor------------------------------------------------Chart 7-2. Persons supported bry one farmworker___________ 1___________
Chart 7-3. U.S. population and farm output____________________________
Chart 7-4. Parity ratio-------------------------------------------------------------------------Chart 7-5. Net income per farm, 1947-59 (current dollars)______________
Chart 7-6. Price support holdings— Owned, under loan and purchase
agreements____________________________________
Chart 7-7. Food prices and Consumer Price Index
Chart 7-8. Price of wheat (sivera^^Jl^^j55 and 1955-56) received by
farmers___________________
Chart 9-1. Excess reserves, di^^^^ t^ an d^ ^ ^ in ces, and free reserves,
1951-59__________________
Chart 9-2. Selected interest r
*
h 'i
■ -w
-
35
36
37
39
42
43
69
72
73
75
77
84
92
107
140
142
146
156
164
166
171
172
174
190
191
192
193
194
197
199
202
330
335
INDEX TO STAFF REPORT
Chart 9-3. Private nonfarm housing starts, financed by conventional,
FHA-insured, and VA-guaranteed mortgages, 1951-59 (seasonally
adjusted annual rates)_____________________ __________________________
Chart 9-4. Differential between yield on high-grade corporate bonds and
ceiling interest rates on FHA-insured and VA-guaranteed mortgages,
1951-59______________________________________________________________
Chart 9-5. Expenditures on plant and equipment, 1947-59______________
Chart 9-6. Yields on outstanding and newly issued high-grade corporate
bonds, 1947-59_______________________________________________________
Chart 9-7. Expenditures on plant and equipment by public utilities and
railroads, 1947-59____________________________________________________
Chart 9-8. State and local government construction contracts awarded
(centered 12-month moving averages, 1947-59)________________________
Chart 9-9. Consumer expenditures on durable goods, 1947-58__________
Chart 9-10. Consumer installment credit outstanding, 1947-59__________
Chart 9-11. Percentage distribution of publicly held marketable debt, by
maturity, fiscal years 1946-58_________________________________________
Chart 11-1. The relationship between U.S. net capital export and the U.S.
trade surplus, 1946-58_____ __________________________________________
Chart 11-2. Rates of direct U.S. private investment to total U.S. private
investment, 1946-59---------------------------------------------------------------------------
89
Paga
364
366
369
370
377
384
386
388
413
449
465
T ables
Table 1-1. Selected indicators of economic growth potentials, 1959-75___
Table 1-2. Growth of output and changes of prices, successive decades, in
some advanced countries_____________________________________________
Table 1-3. Average annual changes in per capita output and prices, by
country, 1949-58_____________________________________________________
Table 1-4. Growth of gross national product and its components— Con
stant dollars, selected periods, 1953-59____________________________ ___
Table 2-1. Trend of gross' national product and personal consumption,
1839-1959____________________________________________________________
Table 2-2. Gross national product rates of growth, peak to peak________
Table 2-3. Average rates of productivity before and after 1919, private
domestic economy____________________________________________________
Table 2-4. Educational attainment of the adult population 25 years old
and over, by year of school completed________________________________
Table 2-5. School enrollment as a percent of school-age population______
Table 2-6. Length of school term and student absenteeism______________
Table 2-7. Occupational distribution of experienced civilian labor force,
1940-57, and gainful workers, 1910-30, as a percent of total labor force__
Table 2-8. Resource trends in the United States, 1870-1954____________
Table 2-9. Differences in education expenditures, amount of schooling__
Table 2-10. Funds for research and development performance financed by
the Federal Government, by industry, 1957___________________________
Table 2-11. Funds for research and development performance, by industry,
1956-57______________________________________________________________
Table 3-1. Indexes of production and capacity in manufacturing-----------Table 3-2. Average annual increase in civilian labor force, selected periods,
1947-59______________________________________________________________
Table 3-3. Growth of gross national product and its components in
constant dollars, selected periods, 1947-59____________________________
Table 3-4. Growth of goods arid services compared, selected periods,
1909-5S______________________________________________________________
Table 3-5. Civilian population by age groups___________________________
Table 3-6. Inflation in prices of “ overhead services7’____________________
Table 3-7. Nonagricultural employment, industrial composition of in
creases during selected periods, 1925—59_______________________________
Table 3-8. Increase in average annual earnings, 1953-57------------------------Table 3-9. Average annual earnings and value added per person engaged
in production: Services and trade compared with other private noiu'i.. ricultural sectors (1958)________________________________________________
Table 3-10. Ratio of part-time to full-time employees, by industry------Table 3—11. Comparison of growth in private gross national product with
real product per man-hour____________________________________________
Table 3-12. Indexes of real product per man-hour for private economy,
1947-58______________________________________________________________
62808 0 — 61------- ,7
8
12
13
19
34
38
44
46
46
46
47
49
54
60
61
70
71
78
79
80
82
85
86
86
87
88
90
90
IN DEX
TO STAFF REPORT
Table 3-13. Growth of real product per man-hour: Sectors of the private Page
economy, 1947-57____________________________________________________
90
Table 3-14. Service and trade: National income originating per person
participating in production, 1929-58__________________________________
93
Table 3-15. Average annual rates of growth in productivity in service and
trade_________________________________________________________________
93
Table 4-1. Selected indicators of economic growth potentials, 1959-75___
101
Table 5-1. Changes in the price level, 1945-59__________________________
104
Table 5-2. Percentage change in prices in selected sectors, 1947-58______
105
Table 5—3. How family income was shared by income tax and by the top
5 percent, 1935-36, 1944, 1954, 1957__________________________________
112
Table 5-4. Trends in output, prices, profits, wages, and employment in
manufacturing, 1947-58______________________________________________
119
Table 5-5. The rise in industrial prices, a component analysis of change in
the wholesale price index, excluding food and farm products_____________
122
Table 5-6. Value added price indexes in manufacturing industries, 1947-58.
123
Table 5-7. Trends in manufacturing industries, 1947-57________________
126
Table 5-8. Price and output trends in construction, 1947-58______________
127
Table 5-9. Output trends in the service industries, 1947-58_______________
131
132
Table 5-10. Price trends in the service industries, 1947-58________________
Table 5—11. Percent increase in wages in selected service and manufactur
ing industries, 1947-58_______________________________________________
135
Table 5-12. Employment, unemployment, and earnings in the entire
136
economy and in selected major sectors, 1945-58________________________
Table 5-13. Changes in earnings, profit rates, concentration ratios, and
estimated union strength, 1947-53 and 1953-58_____________________ _
148
Table 5-14. Cross-section correlation coefficients between changes in
straight-time hourly earnings, profits, concentration ratios, and produc
tion worker employment in manufacturing industries, 1947-58________
149
Table 5-15. Wage and fringe adjustments in selected industries, 1946-58__
151
Table 5-16. Profits in the steel and automobile industries, 1947-58________
154
Table 6-1. Increase in rates of unemployment during business declines,
1900-1958____________________________________________________________
163
Table 6-2. Persons unemployed 15 weeks or more by major occupation
group, March 1958 and 1959__________________________________________
167
Table 6-3. Unemployment by age and sex, March 1957, 1958, and 1959____
168
Table 6-4. Unemployment by major occupation group, March 1958 and
1959__________________________________________________________________
169
169
Table 6-5. Unemployment by color and sex, March 1957, 1958, and 1959__
Table 6.-6. Selected measures of the duration of unemployment, 1948,
1952, and 1956________________________________________________________
173
Table 6-7. Changes in unemployment between 1948 and 1956, by major
industry group for wage and salary workers_____________________________
175
Table 6-8. Unemployment by labor market area group, by age and sex,
April and May 1959______________________________________ ____________
177
Table 6-9. Unemployment by labor market area group, by duration of
unemployment, April and May 1959___________________________________
178
Table 6-10. Unemployment and unemployment rates, major areas with
chronic labor surpluses, September 1959 and annual averages 1954-59___
181
Table 7-1. Reduction in number of farms, selected periods______________
192
Table 7-2. Relation of farm size and output share_______________________
195
Table 7-3. Expenditure for stabilization of farm prices and income,
1954-59______________________________________________________________
196
Table 7-4. Price support holdings, owned under loan and purchase agree
ments, United States, by quarters, June 1948 to June 1959____________
198
Table 8-1. Unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force, by
quarters, seasonally adjusted annual rates, 1946-59___________________
275
Table 8-2. Gross national product or expenditure, seasonally adjusted
quarterly totals at annual rates, 1946-58___________________________ 276-279
Table 8-3. Gross national product or expenditure, seasonally adjusted
quarterly totals at annual rates, in constant dollars, 1947-58________ 280-283
Table 8-4. Defense obligations for hard goods and new and unfilled orders
and inventories in durable goods manufacturing industries, quarterly,
1946-59____________________________________________________________ 284-285
Table 8-5. Government receipts and expenditures, seasonally adjusted
quarterly totals at annual rates, 1946-58____________________________ 286-293
Table 8-6. Implicit price deflators for seasonally adjusted quarterly gross
national product or expenditure, 1947-58___________________________ 294-297
IN DEX TO STAFF REPORT
91
Table 8-7. Personal income and its disposition, seasonally adjusted Page
quarterly totals at annual rates, 1946-58___________________________ 298-301
Table 8-8. Consumer and wholesale price indexes, all items, quarterly,
1948-58______ _______________________________________________________
302
Table 8-9. Expenditures for new plant and equipment (excluding agri
culture), seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates, in current
prices and constant (1954) dollars, 1947-58___________________________
303
Table 8-10. Selected items of Federal expenditures and purchases,
304
seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates, 1946-58__________
Table 8-11. Corporate profits before and after tax, seasonally adjusted
quarterly, totals at annual rates, 1946-59___________________________ 305-306
Table 8-12. Employment as percent of civilian labor force, and Federal
surplus or deficit on income and product account as percent of gross
national product, quarterly, seasonally adjusted at annual rates,
307
1946-58______________________________________________ ______________ _
Table 8-13. Employment as percent of labor force, and excess of Federal
cash receipts from the public over payments to the public as percent of
gross national product, quarterly, seasonally adjusted at annual rates,
1946-58______________________________________________________________
307
Table 8-14. Relationship of Federal surplus on income and product account
as percent of GNP to seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment, 1946,
third quarter, to 1951, second quarter, and 1954, first quarter, to 1958,
third quarter_________________________________________________________
308
Table 8-15. Relationship of Federal “ cash budget” surplus as percent of
GNP to seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment, 1946, third quarter,
to 1951, second quarter, and 1954, first quarter, to 1958, fourth quarter. _
308
Table 8-16. Federal cash receipts from and payments to the public,
quarterly, 1947-59, before and after seasonal adjustment_____________ 309-310
Table 8-17. Gross and net national saving related to gross national
product, seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates, 1946-58__
311
Table 8-18. Percentage distribution of Federal, State, and local govern
ment receipts by source, 1946-58____^________________________________
312
Table 8-19. Percentage distribution of total (Federal, State, and local)
taxes by quin tiles of personal money income__________________________
313
Table 8-20. Effective rate of tax (combined Federal, State, and local) by
313
quintiles of personal income money___________________________________
Table 8-21. Dollar limits of quintiles of personal money income_________
313
Table 8-22. Relative weights of Federal compared with State and local
taxes_________________________________________________________________
313
Table 8-23. Estimated relative weight of Federal taxes on saving and
consumption, 1946-57________________ ________________________________
314
Table 8—24. Measures of stability in broad categories of Federal e: penditures, selected periods, 1946-58_______________________________________
314
Table 9-1. Factors affecting money supply, December 31, 1941, to Decem
ber 31 1945_ _ _________ __ _________ ____ _
316
328
Table 9-2. Composition of the publicly held Federal debt, 1946^59______
Table 9—3. Major debt-lengthening operations by the Treasury, October
1953 to February 1955_______________________________________________
331
Table 9-4. Changes in selected interest rates, 1955-57___________________
336
Table 9-5. Factors affecting the money supply, December 31, 1954, to
September 25, 1957___________________________________________________
337
Table 9-6. Major debt-lengthening measures by the Treasury, September
1957 to June 1958____________________________________________________
340
Table 9-7. Comparison of changes in money supply and in income velocity
during upward and downward movements of gross national product
since the first quarter of 1947_________________________________________
345
Table 9-8. Factors responsible for changes in money supply during periods
of monetary ease and restriction, November 26, 1952, to September 30,
1959_________________________________________________________________
347
Table 9-9. Sources and uses of funds for nonfinancial corporations by sub
periods, June 30, 1954, to March 31, 1959_____________________________
350
Table 9-10. Sources of funds supplied to the private sector by financial
institutions other than commercial banks during periods of monetary
ease and restriction, December 31, 1952, to December 31, 1958________
355
Table 9-11. Average interest rates paid on various types of fixed-value
redeemable claims, 1946-58___________________________________________
355
92
IN DEX
TO STAFF REPORT
Table 9-12. Changes in holdings of Treasury securities during periods of
monetary ease and restriction, November 30, 1952, to August 31, 1959_
Table 9-13. Expenditures on fixed capital investment by the corporate and
unincorporated business, 1952-58_____________________________________
Table 9-14. Sources and uses of funds, State and local governments,
1954-59______________________________________________________________
Table 9-15. Increments on the school-age population, 1950-59__________
Table 9-16. Relation between different concepts of the public debt, fiscal
years 1946-59________________________________________________________
Table 9-17. Ownership of the publicly held Federal debt, fiscal years
1946-59______________________________________________________________
Table 11-1. Summary of the U.S. balance of payments__________________
Table 11-2. Major elements within U.S. balance of payments___________
Table 11-3. U.S. exports and imports, 1946-58__________________________
Table 11-4. Ratios of the merchandise export balance to the merchandise
export, 1946-58------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------Table 11-5. U.S. exports as share of world total, selected years and
1950-58______________________________________________________________
Table 11-6. U.S. imports as share of world total, selected vears and
1950-5 8
1 ________
Table 11-7. Share of countries and groups of countries in world exports,
1951-5 8
Table 11-8. U.S. exports and imports of merchandise, by continent,
selected years, 1946-58_______________________________________________
Table 11-9. Percentage distribution of U.S. exports and imports, by kind:
Averages for 1946-50, 1951-55, and selected years_____________________
Table 11-10. Absolute and percentage changes in U.S. commodity trade,
1954-58______________________________________________________________
Table 11-11. The U.S. share of totals of exports from the United States,
Western Europe, and Japan to the nonindustrialized nations, 1954-56
and 1958_____________________________________________ _______________
Table 11-12. U.S. share of total chemical exports by Western Europe, the
United States, and Japan into the nonindustrialized nations— 1954-56
and 1958----------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------Table 11-13. U.S. share of total machinery and transport exports by
Western Europe, the United States, and Japan to the nonindustrialized
nations— 1954-56 and 1958___________________________ _______________
Table 11-14. U.S. share of total miscellaneous manufactures exports by
Western Europe, the United States, and Japan to the nonindustrialized
nations—-1954-56 and 1958___________________________________________
Table 11-15. Percentage changes in hourly earnings in the United States
and five European nations, 1950-58___________________________________
Table 11-16. Ratios of 1958 indexes of percent increases in wages and
prices to average indexes for 1954-56__________________________________
Table 11-17. Wholesale prices of steel: five countries, 1950-58__________
Table 11-18. U.S. net capital outflow, 1946-58_________________________
Table 11-19. Total of U.S. private investment, direct investment, and
ratios of direct to total investment by groups of years, 1946-58________
Table 11-20. Value of direct private investment of U.S. investment abroad
by industry groups___________________________________________________
Table 11-21. Percentage distribution of direct private investment of U.S.
investment abroad by industry groups and areas______________________
Table 11-22. U.S. direct investments by areas, selected years, 1950-58-_
Table 11-23. Distribution of book value of U.S. direct investments in
Western Europe______________________________________________________
Table 11-24. Economic grants of the U.S. Government, by regions, 19461958_________________________________________________________________
Table 11-25. U.S. Government net capital outflow, 1946-58_____________
Table 11-26. U.S. military expenditures abroad, by regions, 1946-58____
Table 11-27. Defense expenditures abroad for goods and services, by major
category, January 1953 through June 1959____________________________
Table 11-28. Defense expenditures abroad for goods and services, by major
country, January 1953 through June 1959_____________________________
Table 11-29. Gold, dollars, gold plus dollars, and imports for the world, the
United States, and the world minus the United States_________________
Table 11-30. Annual rate of change_____________________________________
Table 11-31. Ratio of reserves to imports________________________________
Page
357
379
382
385
410
415
442
445
451
452
452
453
453
454
455
456
458
459
460
460
462
462
464
465
466
467
468
469
469
471
472
473
474
474
476
477
477
INDEX TO COMMITTEE REPORT
REPORT OF THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (S. REPT. 1043)
Pag*
Introduction-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Conclusions____________________________________________________________
Policies_________________________________________________________________
I. The Nation’s economic objectives_________________________________
Economic growth________ ____________________________________
High and stable rate of employment__________________________
Stability in the general level of prices________________________
II. Past performance and future potential of the U.S. economy_______
The record on growth________________________________________
Employment__ _____________________________________________
The recent behavior of prices________________________________
Our growth potential________________________________________
III. Fiscal policy_____________________________________________________
IV. Monetary policy_____________________ ____________________________
The purpose of the Treasury-Federal Reserve accord of 1951__
Policies since the accord_____________________________________
Reasons for the shortcomings________________________________
A broader range of monetary tools___________________________
Expansion of money and credit for longrun growth___________
Truth in the cost of money__________________________________
Summary of policy recommendations_________________________
V. Debt management_______________________________________________
Introduction_________________________________________________
Recommendations for improved debt management____________
The interest rate ceiling_______________________________ ______
VI. Policies to improve the structure of the economy_____ ____________
Reducing the exercise of market power_______________________
Strengthening antitrust policy________________________________
Reduction of tariffs__________________________________________
Patents______________________________________________________
Voluntary restraint__________________________________________
Government participation in key price-wage decisions________
Other changes to improve the structure of the economy_______
VII. The farm problem____________________________ ___________________
Program for commercial agriculture__________________________
V III. America’s changing position in the world economy________________
The causes of the balance-of-payments deficit________________
Recommendations___________________________________________
Note by Senator William J. Fulbright__________________________________
Supplemental views of Representative Wright Patman__________________
Minority views_________________________________________________________
Additional views of Senator John Marshall Butler_______________________
Additional views of Senator Jacob K. Javits____________________________
A PPE N D IXE S
Text of S. Con. Res. 13_________________________________________________
Hearings, study papers, and reports prepared under Study of Employment,
Growth, and Price Levels_____________________________________________
Recommendations of the American Bankers Association Advisory Com
mittee to the Treasury, 1952-59. (Excerpt from Hearings, pp. 12211228.)_______- ________________________________________________________
1
2
4
7
7
9
9
11
11
13
15
16
19
29
29
29
30
32
33
34
34
35
35
36
36
49
49
50
52
53
53
53
54
55
56
59
59
60
61
63
73
93
135
143
145
149
C H ART
Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, January 1948 to date_________
93
14
94
IN D E X TO COMMITTEE
REPORT
TABLES
Table 1.— Difference in gross national product in selected years if the p»£e
economy grows at 2.5 percent, 3.5 percent, or 4.5 percent______________
3
Table 2.— Comparative rates of growth of gross national product in the
United States by varying periods_____________________________________
11
Table 3.— United States of America compared with other advanced
countries— annual average growth rates_______________________________
12
Table 4.— Selected indicators of economic growth potentials, 1959-75____
17
Table 5.— U.S. average annual growth rates, 1909-59________________ Facing 18
Table 6.— Disposition of advice of the American Bankers Association to
38
the Treasury with respect to new issues, 1952-59_____________________
Table 7.— Reductions in member bank reserve requirements and com
parisons with equivalent open-market purchases by Federal Reserve
System, July 1, 1953, to Decem ber^1, 1959___________________________
45
o
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