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MONTHLY REVIEW
OF
B U S IN E S S
C O N D IT IO N S
ISAAC B. NEW TO N , Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Vol. X I I I
San Francisco, California, October 21,1929
No. 10
S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S
Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board
Industrial activity increased less in Septem
ber than is usual at this season. Production
during the month continued above the level of
a year ago, and for the third quarter of the year
it was at a rate approximately ten per cent
above 1928. There was a further decline in
building contracts awarded. Bank loans in
creased between the middle of September and
the middle of October, reflecting chiefly growth
in loans on securities.
Production. Output of iron and steel de
clined further in September, contrary to the
seasonal tendency. There was a sharp decrease
in output of automobiles and automobile tires,
and a smaller than seasonal increase in activity
in the textile and shoe industries, which con
tinued to produce at a high rate in comparison
with the preceding year. Meat packing plants
were more active than in August. Factories
increased the number of their employees during
September and payrolls were also slightly
larger.
Output of coal showed a substantial increase
from August and the average daily production
of copper mines was somewhat larger. Iron
ore shipments declined seasonally, and petro
leum output was reduced for the first time in
several months.
For the first half of O ctober reports indicate
a further reduction in steel plant operations, a
continued increase in production of bituminous
coal, and some increase in petroleum output
follow ing a moderate decrease during Sep
tember.
Building contracts awarded in September
declined seasonally from August and were
substantially below the corresponding months
in any year since 1924. For the third quarter
the volume of contracts was six per cent less
than a year ago. During the first three weeks
of October, contracts continued substantially
below the level of last year.
October estimates by the Department of
Agriculture indicate a cotton crop of 14,915,000
bales, three per cent larger than last year; a
corn crop of 2,528,000,000 bushels, 11 per cent
smaller than the crop of a year ago, and eight
per cent below the five-year average; and a
total wheat crop of 792,000,000 bushels, 12 per
cent below last year but only slightly under
the five-year average.
Distribution. Freight carloadings increased
by slightly less than the usual seasonal amount
in September, and continued to be larger than
a year ago. In the first two weeks of October
carloadings were smaller than in the corre
sponding weeks of 1928.
Department store sales in leading cities in
PER
PER CEN T
125
CENT
6r
-
v/
*'■»
/
' , ^
f
J -J a —
f\ 1
/ 1 t
Is
.Jr.
~
, I
\
\
>
_
1925
1926
1927
1923
1929
P R O D U C T IO N O F M A N U F A C T U R E S A N D M IN E R A L S
Index numbers of production of manufactures and minerals, adjusted
for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average =100). Latest
figures, September, manufactures 122; minerals, 119.
*
8
[ /
*
—— C O M M E R C I A L P A P E R R A T E
— R E S E R V E B A N K D IS C O U N T R A T E
—
ACCEPTANCE RATE
1
.
.
1925
L - ............. .
1926
1_____ _____ -1
1927
...
. .
1926
---- --------- ,u
1929
M O N E Y RATES
M on th ly rates in the open m arket in N e w Y o r k : com m ercial paper rate
on 4- to 6-m onth paper and a cceptance rale on 90-day bankers* accept*
ances. Latest figures are averages o f first 23 days in O cto b e r.
O ctob er, 1929
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
74
creased seasonally during the month of Sep
tember and were two per cent larger than a
year ago. For the third quarter as a whole sales
of the reporting stores exceeded those of the
third quarter of last year by three per cent.
Prices. W holesale prices showed little change
from August to September, according to the
index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices
of meats and livestock declined considerably,
while prices of grains advanced. The prices of
M IL L IO N S O F
2000
DOLLARS
idly, while all other loans, including loans for
commercial and agricultural purposes, declined
somewhat after reaching a seasonal peak on
O ctober 2.
Security holdings of the reporting banks con
tinued the decline which has been almost un
interrupted for more than a year.
At the Reserve Banks there was little change
in the volume of credit outstanding during the
four-week period ending O ctober 19. Further
B IL L IO N S
10
OF
D O LLARS
1
r
A t_ L
.....
OTHER
in
■ —
...
....
L O A N iS
1500
L O A IMS
1000
ON
S E C U R IT ÏE S
500
IN V E S T M E N T S
1925
1926
1927
1926
1929
R E S E R V E B A N K C R E D IT
M on th ly averages o f daily figures for 12 F ederal R eserve B anks.
Latest figures are averages o f first 19 days in
O cto b e r.
raw silk, cotton, and cotton goods were higher
in September, and the price of coal increased,
while prices of iron and steel products, tin,
gasoline, and cement were lower. During the
first three weeks of O ctober there was a decline
in prices of a considerable number of com
modities, including wheat, flour, hides, steel,
tin, cotton, silk, and wool.
Bank Credit. Between the middle of Sep
tember and the middle of October there was a
slight increase in the volume of loans and in
vestments of member banks in leading cities.
The banks’ loans on securities increased rap-
1927
1928
1929 -
M E M B E R B A N K C R E D IT
M on th ly averages o f w e e k ly figures for reporting m em ber banks in
leading cities. Latest figures are averages o f first three
w eeks in O cto b e r .
increase in the holdings of acceptances by the
Federal Reserve Banks was accompanied by a
decline in discounts for member banks, largely
at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Open market rates on bankers’ acceptances
and on prime commercial paper were un
changed during the last half of September and
the first three weeks of October. On O cto
ber 23 rates on bankers’ acceptances declined
by one-eighth per cent to a five per cent level
for the principal maturities. Rates on demand
and time loans on securities declined during
the first half of October.
T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S
During September, business in this District
continued generally active, and the amount of
bank credit in use expanded substantially. R ec
ords of industry and trade were not funda
mentally different from those of the two
preceding months, although there was some
evidence during September of a decline in
production and in primary distribution. Dry
weather in many of the agricultural areas of
the District, persistence of the existing dis
parity between production and consumption
in the petroleum and lumber industries and
continuance of the decline in building activity
may be listed as unfavorable factors in the busi
ness situation. There was a general downward
movement in com m odity prices.
A s marketing of the District’s crops has pro
gressed, evidence has accumulated that total
agricultural income this year will approximate
that of 1928. Continued lack of rainfall over
much of the District has retarded late maturing
crops and the growth of feed on livestock
ranges, and has interfered with the planting of
fall-sown grains.
Industrial output declined slightly during
September but, with the exception of building,
was in larger volume than in September, 1928.
Sales at retail and at wholesale, sales of new
automobiles, and waterborne intercoastal trade
of the District were moderately larger than a
year ago. Sales at retail increased more than
they usually do from August to September.
Freight carloadings on railroads of the District
were fewer in number during September, 1929,
than in either August, 1929, or September,
1928. Commodity prices moved to lower levels
O ctober, 1929
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO
during September, follow ing the trend noted
during the preceding month. The declines were
not large, but were widely distributed.
The total amount of credit extended by mem
ber banks of the District increased substan
tially during September and the first week of
October. Available figures indicate that the
volume of commercial loans of member banks
declined during the month, but that customers’
demands for additional loans on securities in
creased. The funds needed to meet the in
creased demand for loans were obtained largely
by reductions in the investment accounts of
the banks, although there was also an increase
in their borrowings from the Reserve Bank.
Holdings of bills discounted and of securities
at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
increased during September and early October,
reaching a seasonal peak in the second week of
the later month. A large proportion of the
acceptances purchased during this period origi
nated within the Tw elfth District, the remain
der, particularly during recent weeks, being
purchased in the New York market.
Agriculture
During October physical conditions in most
of the agricultural areas of the Tw elfth District
retarded the growth of late maturing crops
and of forage on winter livestock ranges. In
Arizona, Utah, and southern Nevada, how
ever, seasonal rains improved range and crop
conditions.
Production estimates of the
United States Department of Agriculture have
changed little since September, at which time
yields of most crops were expected to be
smaller than in 1928.
Agricultural products marketed during re
cent weeks have generally brought prices equal
to or better than those received a year ago.
The United States Department of A gricul
ture’s composite index of farm prices stood
at 143 (August, 1909-July, 1914, prices = 100)
in August, 1929, as compared with 139 in A u
gust, 1928. Indexes for five individual groups
of products — grains, fruits and vegetables,
meat animals, dairy products, and poultry prod
ucts— increased slightly as compared with a
year ago, while the index of cotton and cotton
seed prices declined. During this period in
which products sold by the farmer have in
creased in price, there has been little or no
change in average prices paid by farmers for
commodities purchased by them. The indi
cated purchasing power of a given unit of farm
produce this year is, therefore, slightly higher
than in 1928, but inasmuch as crop yields ap
pear to be somewhat smaller than a year ago',
no noteworthy increase in aggregate farm pur
chasing power is anticipated.
75
Harvesting of the 1929 wheat crop in the Pa
cific Northwest has now been completed and a
large part of the crop has been moved to sea
board terminals. For the current crop season
to October 5, receipts of wheat at Puget Sound
and Columbia River ports totaled 18,677 car
loads as compared with 18,004 cars received
during the same period in 1928. During Sep
tember domestic shipments of wheat from these
ports were smaller than in any other Septem
ber of record, and up to the end of that month
the season’s shipments were 18 per cent less
than in the corresponding months of 1928. Con
sequently, the visible supply of wheat at ter
minal elevators on September 30 was larger
than a year earlier. Export shipments of barley
from San Francisco during July, August, and
September, 1929, were 11 per cent smaller in
volume than during the same three months of
1928.
As indicated in the follow ing table, produc
tion of all grains during 1929 has fallen short
of production in 1928. No such general state
ment can be made concerning the more numer
ous field crops. In this division of agriculture
increases of 12 per cent, 21 per cent, and 2 per
cent in production of beans, cotton, and sugar
beets, respectively, may be contrasted with de
creases of 4 per cent, 22 per cent, and 40 per
cent, respectively, in the production of hops,
potatoes, and rice.
F IE L D A N D G R A IN C R O P S -P R O D U G T IO N
(in thousands)
F oreca st
1927
O cto b e r 1,1929
1928
B e a n s— D r y ( b u .)
6,531
5,901
6,597
C a lifo rn ia , I d a h o . . ........................
16,891
16,630
U n ite d S t a t e s .......... ........................
18,208
C o tto n (b a le s )
A r iz o n a , C a lifo rn ia ......................
182
389
321
12,955
U n ite d S t a t e s ..........
14,478
H o p s (lb s .)
C a liforn ia , O re g o n , W a s h in g to n
31,620
32.742
29.794
U n ite d S t a t e s ....................................
31,620
32.742
29.794
P o ta to e s — Irish ( b u .)
T w e lfth D is tr ic t . ........................
36,643
47,107
55,756
U n ite d S t a t e s .......... ........................ 345,177
464,483
406,964
R ic e ( b u . ) <
C a lifo rn ia ................. ........................
8,960
4,845
8,073
40,231
U n ite d S t a t e s .......... ........................
36,139
41,881
S u g a r B eets ( t o n s )
1,534
C a lifo rn ia , I d a h o , U t a h ...............
1,609
1,578
8,228
U n ite d S t a t e s ....................................
7,101
7,753
T a m e H ay (to n s )
T w e lfth D is t r ic t . . ........................
14,616
14,568
15,312
U n ite d S t a t e s .......... ........................ 100,582
92,983
106,001
B a rle y ( b u .)
42,397
T w e lfth D is t r ic t . . . ......................
46,413
33,435
U n ite d S t a t e s .......... ......................
313,368
356,667
265,882
O a ts ( b u .)
T w e lfth D is tr ic t . . . ......................
26,955
35,480
41,147
U n ite d S t a t e s .......... ...................... 1,226,573
1,448,677
1,182,594
W in te r W h e a t (b u .)
T w e lfth D is tr ic t . . ........................
73,819
87,655
89,976
U n ite d S t a t e s .......... ....... ................ 568,233
578,000
552,747
S p r in g W h e a t * ( b u .)
T w e lfth D is t r ic t . . ........................
37,705
38,091
48,846
U n ite d S t a t e s .......... ........................ 171,857
231,015
246,527
* O th e r than D u ru m w h eat.
S o u r c e : U n ite d S ta te s D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u ltu r e .
Harvesting of the
crops of the District
pleted, only the later
ing to be picked. In
relatively small 1929 fruit
has been practically com
apples and grapes remain
general, fruit sold during
76
MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
the 1929 crop season for canning, drying, and
for fresh shipment has brought satisfactory
returns to growers.
The market movement of the 1929 grape crop
from California was at its height in early O cto
ber. Up to October 6 rail shipments of grapes
from that state had totaled 31,141 carloads as
compared with 42,968 carloads shipped up to
October 6, 1928. Average prices for grapes at
eastern auction markets have recently been
slightly higher than one year ago, but lower
than those received in 1927.
Commercial production of apples in the
Tw elfth District this year is expected to be
about 20 per cent smaller than in 1928. The
crop has been slow to mature, and shipments
during the current season, to October, totaled
but 10,714 carloads as compared with 19,363
carloads shipped during the corresponding
period last year.
A P P L E S — T W E L F T H D IS T R I C T A N D U N I T E D S T A T E S
^
i
j
Forecast
Forecast
C o m m erce 1 Production
0ct> 1 1 9 2 9 Sept. 1,1929
1928
(I n thousands of bushels)
California ........................
4,368
4,524
6,981
I d a h o ..................................
3,771
3,930
4,500
O regon .............................
3,708
4,203
4,800
U tah ..................................
417
423
570
W ashington ....................
24,324
24,675
30,000
Total ..................................
36,588
37,755
46,851
U nited States ...............
85,503
88,419
105,924
1927
4,656
5,400
2,925
402
22,302
35,685
77,700
t -------- June 1 — October 13------------- N
Shipments in Carloads
California ............................................
Idaho .....................................................
Oregon ..................................................
U tah ........................................................
W ashin gton .........................................
T o t a l .......................................................
S o u rc e :
1929
2,096
2,151
330
28
6,109
10,714
1928
4,415
2,617
1,630
250
10,451
19,363
1927
2,242
2,887
772
116
6,903
12,920
United States D epartment of Agriculture.
The forthcom ing crop of Navel oranges in
California is estimated to be 40 or 45 per cent
smaller than the 1928-1929 crop which totaled
17,500,000 boxes. Distributing agencies on
October 1 estimated that approximately 8,000
carloads of the current Valencia orange crop
(17,600,000 boxes) remained to be marketed.
Shipments of oranges during August and Sep
tember totaled 11,762 carloads, nearly twice the
(A) Industry—
Indexes of daily average production, adjusted for seasonal variations
(1923-1925 daily average =100)
—1929—
1928
t—
July
Sept.
Sept. Aug.
M anufactures:
132
120 112
Flour ................. ^.........................................
88
88
Slaughter of Livestock ...................... . . . 85
84
102 110 106 110
Lu m ber .......................................................
159
215
213
Refined M ineral O ils* ........................ . . . 204
90
115
100
Cement ........................................................ . . . 93
80
73
90
W o o l consum ption ...............................
M inerals:
133
131
96
Petroleum (C alifornia)* ................. . . . 132
122 121
119
Copper (U n ited States) t ................. . . . 124
120 116
Lead (U n ited S ta te s )f ......................
88
79
91
Silver (U n ited States) f ................... “ ’ 80
General :
Carloadings— I n d u s t r ia l..................... . . 102
Value of Building Permits$
Tw en ty Larger Cities .................... . . 64
Seventy Smaller Cities ................. . . . 88
Value of Engineering Contracts
Awarded^
Total ...................................................
147
Excluding Buildings .................
111
116
119
63
97
68
95
71
87
131
150
149
127
119
113
*Not adjusted for seasonal variations. fPrepared by Federal Re
serve Board. {Indexes are for three months ending on the
month indicated.
October, 1929
6,110 carloads shipped during the same two
months in 1928.
Livestock and livestock ranges in California,
Idaho, Oregon, W ashington, and Nevada are
now (m id-O ctober) in poorer condition than
in any O ctober since 1924. In Utah and A ri
zona recent seasonal rains have stimulated
growth of forage, which in turn has resulted in
an improvement in the condition of livestock.
L IV E S T O C K R E C E IP T S — Twelfth District*
,---------------1929 -------------N ,-------------- 1928--------------- x
Jan. - Sept.
Jan. - Sept.
September Inclusive
September
Inclusive
Cattle ........................
73,939
570,972
76,504
624,281
Calves ........................
15,841
135,026
15,686
141,638
H o g s ...........................
149,191
1,601,674
144,575
1,889,515
472,290
3,053,265
520,010
3,022,978
Sheep ........................
* A t the following m ark ets: L os An geles and San Francisco,
California* Portland, O r e g o n ; O gden and Salt Lake City,
U ta h ; ana Seattle, Spokane and Tacom a, W ashin gton.
P oor range conditions and the high cost of
supplementary feeds have caused many cattle
raisers to market a greater proportion of their
herds this year than they would have mar
keted had conditions been more favorable. For
similar reasons more sheep have moved to
market this fall than during the autumn of
1928. Market receipts of ewe lambs have been
relatively large this autumn, indicating that
the District’s sheepraisers do not now contem
plate a further increase in their flocks, which
have grown in size during each of the past three
years.
Industry
Some evidence of diminution in Tw elfth D is
trict productive activity appeared during late
September, but volume of industrial output for
the entire third quarter of 1929 compared fa
vorably with the record of any previous threemonth period. Crude and refined oils, lumber,
steel, furniture, flour, and wearing apparel,
were produced in large volume throughout the
quarter. Mining of non-ferrous metals was
(B ) Employment—
•California - —^ /--------- — Oregon — — —>
N o. of
N o. of
N o. r - Employees —% N o .
f— Employees —\
of
Sept.,
Sept.,
of
Sept.,
Sept.,
Industries
Firms 1929
1928 Firms
1929
1928
31,291
146
A ll Industries........... 687 168,232 164,436
30,750
(2.3)
(1.8)
Stone, Clay and
249
6,243
126
Glass Products.
43
6,494
5
(—
3.9)
—
49.4)
(
Lum ber and W ood
17,112
17,240
Manufactures . . 104 24,529 26,215
51
(— 6.4)
(0 .7 )
1,922
2,324
2,281
17
11
2,368
(23.2)
(1
.9
)
Clothing, M illinery
and Laundering. 54
7,331
9*
494
484
7,783
(6 .2 )
(2 .1 )
Food, Beverages
and T o b a c c o ... 144 36,848 39,941
43
5,658
5,751
(— 7.7)
(— 1.6)
W ater, Ligh t and
Power .................
5
9,111
8,020
(13.6)
78,625
Other Ind u stries!. 308
72,066
(9 .1 )
5,232
M iscellaneous . . .
12 2,769 2,088 27
5,405
(32.6)
(3 .3 )
* Laundering only, f Includes the following indu stries: metals,
machinery and conveyances; leather and rubber g o o d s ;
chemicals, oils and pain ts; printing and paper goods.
Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from Sep
tember, 1928.
October, 1929
FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO
moderately less active than during the first six
months of the year, but output was of recordbreaking proportions during the earlier period.
Paper and w ood pulp production continued at
approximately the same rate as in the first half
of the year, but at a level about six per cent
below that of 1928. Companies engaged in the
canning, preserving, and packing of fruits and
vegetables were seasonally active during July,
August, and September but, because of rela
tively smaller fruit crops this year, packs were
not so large as in recent years. The value of
building permits issued and of engineering con
tracts awarded declined during the three
months under discussion and totaled less than
in the corresponding quarter of 1928. This re
duction in building and construction was occompanied by a decline in cement output.
The petroleum industry in California is still
struggling with the problem of production con
trol. Notwithstanding repeated efforts of vari
ous agencies to bring about a better adjustment
between the supply of crude oil and current
demand for that product, production increased
steadily during the spring and summer months
of 1929 and reached a record level for total
monthly production in August. The August
rate of production was generally maintained
during September and the first three weeks of
THOUSANDS OF BARRELS
P E T R O L E U M P R O D U C T IO N — C A L I F O R N I A
Daily average output in the entire State and in the largest
producing fields.
October, despite the promulgation of Califor
nia’s natural gas conservation law on A u
gust 31. This law was designed as an oil
conservation measure and is now in litigation
to determine its constitutionality. During the
past several months of heavy crude oil output,
refineries have also operated at record levels,
and most of the available storage space for both
crude oil and refined products (including rela
tively large additional facilities built during the
year) has been filled. The latest move in the
77
attempt to reduce production was the midOctober announcement of some of the larger
refining companies that prices paid for crude
oil at certain of the state’s oil fields have been
reduced 50 to 65 per cent.
Production of lumber in the District de
creased during September. The decrease was
accompanied by proportionate declines in ship
ments and in new orders received, however,
and output continued above current demand.
Reported figures of lumber production have
quite generally been larger than reported ship
ments during recent months, a situation which
suggests accumulation of mill stocks of lumber.
The value of building permits issued in
ninety Twelfth District cities during Septem
ber was smaller than in either August of this
year or in September a year ago, and the total
of permits issued in these cities from Janu
ary 1 to September 30 was five per cent below
the total for the corresponding period of 1928.
Reports from the smaller cities of the group
were chiefly responsible for the September de
clines in building permit totals, whereas, earlier
in the year reports from these cities showed
more activity in building than in the larger
centers. Engineering construction contracts
awarded during September were of smaller
value than in the previous month and the
total of such contracts for the quarter ending
with September was less than for the com
parable quarter of 1928. Contracts announced
during September for projects such as streets
and roads, sewers, bridges, and waterworks
were, as in earlier months of this year, larger
in value than in 1928.
Mine production of copper increased during
September as compared with August and was
greater than output during September, 1928.
Smelter stocks of copper increased and refined
stocks of copper declined during the month.
There was some growth in lead production
during the third quarter of the year under the
stimulus of increased sales activity at firm
though relatively low prices. Silver production
continued to decline during September, but re
mained slightly above the low levels of a year
ago.
Flour mills failed to' expand their output as
much as usual during September, but even so
the quantity of flour milled was larger than in
September, 1928. Millers’ stocks of flour and
of wheat were larger on September 30, 1929,
than on August 31,1929, or September 30, 1928.
Several mills reported a fair domestic but poor
foreign demand for flour.
Trade
Trade was more active during the third quar
ter of 1929 than during the third quarter of
1928. Increases in the year-to-year compari
78
MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
sons were shown in reported data on retail and
wholesale trade, sales of new automobiles,
shipments through the Panama Canal, and
shipments in the District’s foreign commerce.
Some slackening in trade, chiefly in primary
distribution, was evident during September, in
which month declines were recorded in the
seasonally adjusted indexes of wholesale trade,
sales of new automobiles, freight carloadings,
and waterborne intercoastal trade.
Sales at retail increased somewhat more than
seasonally during September, 1929, and were
larger in value than in September, 1928. Total
monthly sales of department, apparel, and fur
niture stores were practically the same in value
as in September of last year. (The number of
trading days was the same in September of
both years.) Sales of department stores in
Oakland and in the State of Arizona showed
substantial gains over the year period with
more moderate increases reported by Seattle
and San Francisco stores. Smaller sales this
year were reported from Spokane and Salt
Lake City, while sales in Portland and in Cali
fornia cities, other than those in the San FranR E T A I L T R A D E — Twelfth District
,----------N E T S A L E S *------ --J a n .lto
Sept.. 1929
Sept. 30.1929
compared with
compared
with
Jan. 1 to
Sept., 1928
Sept. 30,1928
1.9 ( 67)
1.0 ( 71)
D epartm ent Störest
1.9 ( 30)
0.4 . ( , 32)
Apparel Stores . . . . .
_ ,
Furniture Stores.......... — 2.6 ( 48)
3.1 ( 45)
A ll Stores ......................
0.4 (151)
2.1 (142)
ST O C K *
Sept., 1929
compared
with
Sept., 1928
1.8 ( 54)
3.6 ( 20)
0.7 ( 27)
1.8 (101)
*Percentage increase or decrease (— ) . Figures in parentheses in
dicate number of stores reporting, tlnclud es dry goods stores.
cisco Bay region, showred little or no change as
compared with a year ago. Value of sales at
retail for the third quarter as a whole was ap
proximately four per cent larger than in the
(C) Distribution and Trade—
Foreign T rade0
T o ta lf ...................
Im p ortsf ............
E x p o r t s .................
Intercoastal T ra d e0
Total .....................
Carloadingsí
Total ..........................
M erchandise and Ad
W holesale Trade§
Sales ...........................
Retail Trade
Autom obile S a les!
Commercial Vehicles
Departm ent Store
SalesJ ................................
Stocks!! .............................
Stock Turnover}!
C ollection s#
--------------- 1929------------- > 1928
Sept.
Aug.
July
Sept.
-Index Numbers*—
138
106
155
155
150
87
100
150
86
93
140
81
90
123
81
107
114
117
115
116
115
113
117
100
109
100
97
145
139
204
149
145
191
155
153
176
111
110
119
127
123
106
125
104
1240
109
100
110
.25
44.5
15.9
IgUlCS ■
.27
.23
44.20
15.80
45.5
15.1
third quarter of 1928. A t the end of September
stocks carried by retailers in this region were,
for the first time this year, larger in value than
on the corresponding date a year ago.
Total value of sales of 250 wholesale firms in
creased three per cent during September, 1929,
as compared with September, 1928, but was
two per cent smaller than in August, 1929.
A m ong the ten lines for which this Bank col
lects data, sales of agricultural implements and
paper and stationery increased substantially as
compared with September of last year. Smaller
increases were shown in sales of drugs, dry
goods, electrical supplies, groceries, and hard
ware, while a decrease in total sales was
reported by furniture firms. Sales of automo
bile supply and shoe jobbers were practically
the same in value during September, 1928 and
1929. Third quarter sales of the ten lines com
bined were three per cent larger this year than
last.
Total freight carloadings failed to increase
by the usual seasonal amount during Septem
ber and were smaller than a year ago. The
latter decrease was due to reduced loadings of
fruit, grain, lumber products and merchandise
and miscellaneous freight.
Both eastbound and westbound intercoastal
traffic through the Panama Canal declined dur
ing September. The decrease in eastbound
cargo was due chiefly to declines in lumber
shipments and, to a lesser extent, in petroleum
(D ) Bank Debits*—
Arizona
Phoenix
..........$
Sept.,
1929
36,683
California
12,701
Bakersfield . . .
19,887
Berkeley .........
34,103
Fresno ............
L o n g Beach. .
56,546
L os A n g e le s .. 1,149,972
O akland ..........
204,596
32,716
Pasadena . . . .
53,959
Sacramento . .
9,929
San Bernardino
59,002
San D iego . . .
San Francisco. 1,399,908
33,886
San Jose . . . .
16,915
Santa Barbara
Stockton . . . .
28,333
Sept.,
1928
$
31,724
12,484
20,862
43,662
52,392
1,023,494
232,593
36,888
55,107
10,0920
56,487
1,474,532
28,432
14,131
28,115
$
/— First nine months—
1929
1928
$
304,320
384,415
125,003
189,877
288,995
569,950
10,923,450
2,137,395
367,545
462,031
101,409
580,501
12,372,708
268,863
152,229
256,217
124,686
195,913
306,034
489,437
9,459,502
2,203,469
363,668
445,547
95,668
562,498
13,764,136
251,306
125,309
262,973
Idaho
16,013
17,181
135,310
134,042
12,868
11,690
114,648
88,182
7,965
207,956
7,629
185,900
70,569
l,7 4 3 ,5 3 2 f
Utah
Ogden ..............
Salt Lake City
22,240
81,781
23,117
76,215
168,075
727,237
162,158
661,188
W ashin gton
Bellingham .. .
E v e r e t t ............
Ritzville .........
Seattle ............
Spokane ..........
Tacom a ..........
Y a k i m a ............
10,824
13,893
1,117
273,621
65,422
49,052
17,820
10,061
13,533
1,230
239,756
56,547
46,731
17,108
96,135
128,382
8,157
2,428,408
546,784
453,574
126,964
90,687
121,791
9,094
2,188,258
504,937
410,129
118,921
Nevada
.21
44.6
15.4
* A d justed for seasonal variations, 1923-1925 average=rl00. f E x cluding raw silk. {D a ily average. §M onth ly totals of ten
lines combined. IfA t end of month. ||Proportion of average
stocks sold during month. # P e r cent of collections during
months to am ount outstanding at first of month. “ Indexes
are for three months ending on month indicated. ORevised.
October, 1929
Oregon
Eugene ............
Portland
....
______T o ta l............ $3,929,708
66,715
1,582,662
$3,827,6930 $35,928,363t $35,093,230
* In thousands of dollars. t T o obtain a figure comparable with
that for 1928, subtract $66,400,000 for four banks not re
porting prior to week ended M ay 2, 1928. ORevised.
October, 1929
FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO
shipments. The tonnage of general cargo
shipped from the Pacific to the Atlantic in
creased as compared with August but was
much smaller than in September, 1928. Inter
coastal commerce was considerably more active
during the third quarter of this year than dur
ing the same period a year ago.
The seasonally adjusted index of the Dis
trict’s foreign trade advanced substantially
during July, 1929, due entirely to an unusually
large volume of exports during that month.
Imports declined by about the usual amount
as compared with June, but both imports and
exports were larger than in July a year ago.
The District’s exports are usually at low levels
during the summer months and increase to a
high point for the year in October and Novem
ber when shipments of dried and canned fruits
are made in large volume.
PER CENT
R E G IS T R A T IO N OF N E W A U T O M O B IL E S
Twelfth District
Indexes of daily average registrations of new passenger and commer
cial motor vehicles, adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925
daily average = 100). Latest figures are for September, 1929,
Sales of new passenger automobiles, during
September, 1929, declined substantially as com
pared with August, 1929, but were notably
larger than sales during September, 1928. Dur
ing the two preceding months of 1929 an ex
ceptionally large number of new automobiles
was sold in this District.
Prices
The decline in wholesale prices, which began
during the last week of July, continued
throughout August and September, except for
a short period early in September when most
indexes indicated a slight rise in the price level.
The movement toward lower prices has in
cluded a large number of commodities, while
the slight rise which occurred during the first
two weeks in September was chiefly the result
of higher grain prices and a seasonal increase
in the price of foods. A ccording to the index
of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics,
the general level of wholesale prices in Sep
tember of this year was 2.5 per cent lower than
in September, 1928. As has frequently been
the case during the past year, the most impor
79
tant recent price changes have occurred among
the agricultural products, including livestock.
Relatively smaller price declines are shown by
the price indexes of fuels, textiles, metals, and
other groups.
W heat prices at Pacific Coast markets de
clined during September as did the volume of
sales. Demand for wheat for export has been
less active than last year. Hay prices have also
experienced some recessions during the past
month. Unfavorable range conditions in this
District have resulted in the marketing of
larger quantities of sheep and cattle than usual,
and increased marketings have been accom
panied by declines in livestock quotations.
Prices for other agricultural products have held
relatively firm. Orange prices advanced during
September, indicating that this year’s recordsize Valencia crop has been well taken in local
and eastern markets. Active demand for the
average-sized lemon crop raised prices for that
fruit to exceptionally high levels during the
late summer months. The upward movement
in hide quotations during August was followed
by declines in September. Prices for w ool have
declined almost continuously this year.
Prices for crude and refined oils were reduced
in the eastern part of the United States several
weeks ago. Effective October 21, prices for the
principal grades of crude oil produced in Cali
fornia were reduced by more than 50 per cent
from the quotations that have prevailed since
early this year. No change in prices of refined
oils was announced.
The present tendency to purchase copper for
current consumption only has lessened the im
mediate demand for that metal but prices have
remained steady at 18 cents per pound, deliv
ered Connecticut Valley. The lead market is
firm, one large company having recently raised
its quoted price from 6.70 cents to 6.90 cents
per pound. The price of silver has worked
gradually toward lower levels for several
months and is now at the lowest point in 14
years (between 49 $4 and 5 0 % cents per ounce).
There have been no important changes in
lumber prices during recent weeks, although it
is reported that sales are, in many cases, being
made below the published quotations.
Credit Situation
The volume of credit extended by member
banks in the Twelfth District increased sub
stantially during the four-week period Septem
ber 18— October 16. A t the same time the
District suffered relatively large losses of funds
to other Federal reserve districts through check
clearing transactions. Funds to meet this dual
demand were secured through increased bor
rowings from the Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco, and through the purchase of an un-
October, 1929
MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
80
usually large volume of acceptances by that
bank.
During the four weeks ending O ctober 16
there was a net increase of six million dollars
in total loans and investments of reporting city
member banks of the District, an increase of
18 million dollars in loans being partially offset
by a decrease of 12 millions in investments. The
reported increase in loans represented largely a
shifting of funds from investments in securities
to loans on securities, as security loans increased
20 million dollars, while commercial loans de
clined two million dollars during the period.
Increased loans were accompanied by substan
tial increases in net demand and time deposits
at the reporting member banks. Balances due to
banks also increased, most of these bankers’
balances flowing to San Francisco to find em
ployment. Borrowings from the Federal R e
serve Bank of San Francisco increased sharply
between September 18 and October 9, but by
O ctober 16 they had been reduced to a figure
slightly lower than four weeks earlier. Both
city and country member banks contributed to
the net decline during the period under review.
Borrowings of member banks in San Francisco
decreased by ten million dollars, as shown upon
the accompanying chart.
R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S - Twelfth District
(ln millions of dollars)
T otal Loans and I n v e stm e n ts .. .
T otal Loans .......................................
Commercial L o a n s ...........................
Loans on Securities ......................
Investm ents .........................................
N et Demand Deposits .................
Tim e D eposits . . . ...........................
Government Deposits ...................
Borrow ings from Federal Reserve
Bank ...................................................
D ue from B a n k s ................................
D ue to B a n k s ....................................
Oct. 16,
1929
1,968
1,391
944
447
577
790
965
16
73
164
198
- Condition--------------—n
Oct. 9, Sept.18, O ct.17,
1929
1929
1928
1,962
1,962
1,889
1,387
1,373
1,263
945
946
888
442
427
375
575
589
626
750
774
812
955
955
939
22
23
18
90
150
185
74
160
188
71
149
207
Demand for credit at the Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco reached a seasonal peak
during the second week in O ctober and since
that time has declined. On O ctober 16 total
bills and securities held by the Reserve Bank
were the same in volume as were average hold
ings during the month of September. Total
discounts on O ctober 16 amounted to 78 mil
lion dollars, a reduction of three million dollars
as compared with the figures for September 18.
This reduction of discounts was approximately
offset, however, by an increase in the volume of
locally purchased acceptances held by the Re
serve Bank. During recent weeks this Bank
has also increased its purchases of bills in the
New York market.
F E D E R A L R ESE R VE B A N K O F SA N F R A N C IS C O
(In millions of dollars)
t—
Total Bills and Securities.
Bills D is c o u n t e d ....................
Bills Bought ...........................
United States S ecu rities..
Total Reserves ......................
Total Deposits .............................
Federal Reserve N otes in
Circulation .................................
Ratio of Total Reserves to D e
posit and N ote Liabilities
Combined ....................................
■
Oct. 16,
1929
127
78
37
12
260
191
177
70.8
Condition---------------------- ■*
Oct. 9,
Sept.18,
Oct. 17,
1929
1929
1928
132
144
119
76
96
81
25
40
36
13
16
251
242
265
184
197
186
12
177
66.6
181
72.6
68.7
Between September 18 and October 9 there
was a heavy movement of funds out of the Dis
trict on account of check clearing operations.
These losses were sustained chiefly by San
Francisco banks, banks in other principal
cities generally gaining funds from eastern cen
ters during the period. The inter-district m ove
ment of funds out of San Francisco was but
partially offset by a substantial movement of
funds to San Francisco from cities in other
parts of this District.
D IS C O U N T S A T T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F S A N F R A N C I S C O
The upper line shows the total value of bills discounted at this Bank and the lower line indicates the amount of such discounts
for San Francisco member banks. (W eekly figures).
169