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MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS ISAAC B. NEW TO N , Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vol. X I San Francisco, California, April 20,1927 No. 4 S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board Industrial activity increased further during March, and was greater than in March, a year ago. Distribution of commodities at whole sale and retail was somewhat smaller than in March, 1926. The general level of prices con tinued to decline. Production. Industrial production, after in creasing continuously for three months, was larger in March, when allowance is made for usual seasonal changes, than in any month since last September. Output of bituminous coal, crude petroleum, and steel ingots, and mill consumption of raw cotton were larger in March than in any previous month. During April, however, steel mill operations have been somewhat curtailed, and bituminous coal out put has been reduced by about 40 per cent since the beginning of the miners’ strike on April 1st. Consumption of silk and wool, sugar meltings, flour production, and output of rubber tires in creased during March. Production of automo biles has shown seasonal increases since the first of the year but has been in smaller volume than a year ago. The value of building con tracts awarded during March was larger than in any previous month, and production of build ing materials has increased considerably in re cent weeks. The largest increases in contracts, as compared with last year, were in the middle western states, while the largest decreases oc- PER CENT BU ILD IN G CO N TR ACTS AW AR D ED IN D U ST R IAL PR ODUCTION Index number of production of manufactures and minerals combined, adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average = 100). Latest figure, March, 112. Federal Reserve Board’s indexes of value of building contracts awarded as reported by the F. W . Dodge Corporation (1923-1925 average = 100). Latest figures, March, with adjustment, 131; without adjustment, 151. T h o s e d e s i r i n g t h is r e v ie w s e n t t h e m r e g u la r ly w ill r e c e iv e i t w i t h o u t c h a r g e u p o n a p p lic a t io n . 26 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS curred in the southeastern states. In the first half of April, contracts were in slightly smaller volume than in the same period of last year. Trade. Sales of department stores increased by less than the usual amount in March and were slightly smaller than in March, 1926. The decline was due in part to the relative lateness of Easter this year. Sales of mail order houses and chain stores, however, gained in volume over the year period. Inventories of department stores increased slightly more than is usual in March, in anticipation of an expansion in retail trade before the Easter holidays, and at the end of the month were in about the same volume as a year ago. W holesale trade in March continued A p r i l, 1927 lowest level since the war, while the average for agricultural products which had advanced slightly from November to February, remained practically unchanged in March. During the first half of April, prices of winter wheat, sugar, cotton, silk, bituminous coal, and hides ad vanced; while those of hogs, crude petroleum, gasoline, and non-ferrous metals declined. Bank Credit. There was some decline in the volume of loans for commercial purposes and in loans on securities at member banks in lead ing cities between the middle of March and the middle of April. M ember bank holdings of United States government securities which in creased considerably at the middle of March, in PER CENT 1 9 2 3 1 9 2 4 19 2 5 19 2 6 1 9 2 7 W H O L E SA L E PRICES M EM B ER BAN K CR ED IT Index of United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1913 prices =100, base adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, March, 145.3. Monthly averages of weekly figures for banks in 101 leading cities. Latest figures are averages for first three weekly report dates in April. slightly smaller than in the corresponding period of 1926. Stocks of merchandise carried by wholesale firms were seasonally larger at the end of March than in February, but in most lines continued smaller than last year. Freight car loadings, which showed seasonal increases in March, declined during the first ten days of April, ow ing to smaller shipments of coal. They continued larger, however, than in the corre sponding period of previous years. Loadings of miscellaneous freight and of merchandise in less than car load lots were in large volume. Prices. The general level of wholesale com m odity prices declined further in March, re flecting decreases in most of the important groups of commodities. Prices of non-agricultural commodities as a group declined to the connection with the operations of the Treasury, have declined by more than 100 million dollars since that time, but are still about 200 million dollars larger than in the early months of the year. A t the reserve banks, total bills and secu rities, which have fluctuated near the one bil lion dollar level since the end of January, showed little change during the six weeks end ing April 20th. Discounts for member banks were in about the same volume on that date as on March 9th, while acceptances showed a de crease and holdings of United States govern ment securities a slight increase. During the first three weeks of April, quoted rates on prime commercial paper and on acceptances were the same as in the latter part of March, while call money averaged somewhat higher. A p r il, 1927 27 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S In the Tw elfth Federal Reserve District sea sonal increases in industrial output and in volume of trade were quite generally reported during March, 1927, and the business record for the month compared favorably with that of March, 1926. During the first quarter of 1927, the general business situation was character ized by relative stability at levels slightly above the trend of recent years. Satisfactory physical conditions have prevailed in most farming and livestock areas. Average daily volume of check payments (bank debits) at banks in 20 principal cities of the district was considerably larger during March, 1927, than during March, 1926, but the relatively low level of the 1926 figures rather than the high level of the 1927 figures was re sponsible for much of the increase. This bank’s index of bank debits, adjusted for seasonal variations, stood at 161 (1919 average— 100) during March, 1927, the same figure as was re corded for January and February, 1927. A year ago, the index stood at 150. BANK DEBITS*—Twelfth District Mar., 1927 W ith S ea son a l A d j u s t m e n t .. . 161 W ith o u t S e a s o n a l A d ju s t m e n t 173 * D a ily a v e r a g e , 1919 a v e r a g e = 1 0 0 . Feb., 1927 Jan., 1927 Mar., 1926 Feb., 1926 1610 182 161 166 150 159 158 175 O R evised. member banks. Thus far in 1927, their loans have been considerably larger than during 1926, while their demand deposits, which ordinarily respond with a fair degree of accuracy to changes in business activity, have only ap proximated deposits of a year ago. Month to month changes in the condition of reporting member banks and of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco during 1927 have been largely seasonal in character. Seasonal expansion in industrial activity was reported during March and volume of employ ment was larger than in February. Industrial output, however, both for March, 1927, and the first quarter of 1927, is estimated to have been smaller than during the corresponding periods of 1926. The volume of trade transacted during March, 1927, was also seasonally greater than that transacted during February, 1927, and is estimated to have approximated that of a year ago. Total sales of retail stores were larger and of wholesale dealers smaller during the first quarter of 1927 than in the first quarter of 1926. The trend of prices continued downward during March, prices of both agricultural and non-agricultural commodities participating in the movement. Contrary to the general trend, prices of livestock, except hogs, and of lumber, copper, and lead advanced. Substantial declines in gasoline prices in principal California cities were recorded during March and April. Agriculture BANK D EB ITS—T W E L F T H DISTRICT Index for 20 principal cities, Phoenix, Arizona, not included (daily averages, 1919 average = 100). Latest figures, March,with -------adjustment, 161; without adjustment, 173. * Based upon average month to month increase during: the years 1919 to 1926 inclusive. The evidence concerning general business conditions, furnished by figures of bank debits, is not w holly corroborated by other available data of industry and trade. These data reveal, as do the debits, seasonal expansion in volume of operations during March as compared with February, but show, in the aggregate, little change as compared with March a year ago. This conflict of evidence is repeated in com parative statements of condition of reporting Occasional rains and mild temperatures dur ing early March benefited the district’s farms, but cooler weather during the latter part of March and the forepart of April temporarily retarded crop growth and caused some damage to early vegetables and to deciduous fruit crops. April 1st condition figures of the United States Department of Agriculture confirmed earlier reports of satisfactory development of the winter wheat crop. Condition of wheat on that date was generally as good as or better than a year ago and was considerably above the average of the preceding ten years, in all states of the district. C O N D IT IO N OF W IN T ER W H E A T (Per Cent of Normal) 1927 .... C a lifo rn ia ................. ,, ... .... U ta h ............................. . . . . W a s h in g to n .............. . . . . U n ite d States .........._____ *1917-1926. 95 95 92 99 95 95 95 84.5 April I, ■ 1926 1925 95 82 96 97 96 95 92 84.1 87 80 74 92 55 91 28 68.7 Ten-Year* Average April 1 91 85 91 94 90 93 81 79.8 Dec. 1, 1926 98 96 91 93 97 85 98 81.8 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS 28 The United States Department of A gricul ture’s current report of farmers’ intentions to plant, covering the United States and the “ W estern States,” f indicates that there will be some important adjustments in crop acreage this year. Increased acreages are shown in the “ W estern States” for all grains other than spring wheat and for potatoes. I N T E N D E D P L A N T I N G S I N 1927 I N P E R G E N T O F A C R E A G E G R O W N F O R H A R V E S T I N 1926 U nited States W estern States A l l S p r in g W h e a t ................. ......................... C o r n ....................................................................... O a ts ......................................................................... B a rle y .................................................................... R ic e ......................................................................... G ra in S o rg h u m s .............................................. T a m e H a y .......................................................... P o ta to e s ............................................................... (P er Cent) ( Per Cent) 101.6 101.8 103.2 114.3 93.0 96.5 101.8 114.9 92.8 101.1 101.5 102.2 115.0 108.8 97.4 119.5 Shipments of California oranges and lemons during March, 1927, totaled 6,798 cars and 1,170 cars, respectively, compared with 5,614 cars and 1,283 cars shipped during March, 1926. The 1926-1927 Navel orange crop is now esti mated by the California Fruit Growers E x change at 12,154,236 boxes compared with 10,100,000 boxes produced in 1925-1926. A pre liminary estimate of the 1927 Valencia orange crop is given as 13,848,588 boxes, which com pares with a yield of 11,260,000 boxes during 1926‘ Apple shipments from the district during the 1926-1927 season to April 9, 1927, totaled 45,869 carloads. Between July 1, 1925, and April 10, 1926, 46,196 carloads of apples were shipped from the district’s apple orchards. The f. o. b. Pacific Northwest quotation for extra fancy t ln c lu d e s th e states o f A r iz o n a , C a lifo rn ia , C o lo r a d o , I d a h o , M o n ta n a , N e v a d a , N e w M e x ic o , O re g o n , U ta h , W a s h in g to n , an d W y o m in g . (^4) Employment— 1■"S -C aliforn ia —> r N o . of N o . of r - E m ployees — N o . r - E m ployees —n N o . M a r., M a r., M a r., of M a r., of 1927 1926 Firm s 1926 Industries Firms1 1927 26,932 23,885 165 803 144,637 142,293 ( -1 1 .3 ) (1.6) S to n e , C la y an d 223 229 6,592 48 7,579 5 G lass P r o d u c t s . (2 .7 ) (1 5 .0 ) L u m b er and W o o d 64 16,953 19,754 M a n u fa ctu re s . . 127 23,329 25,280 ( — 7.7 ) ( — 14.2) 2,517 2,513 11 1,516 1,777 16 T e x t i l e s .................... ( 0 .2 ) ( — 14.7) C lo th in g , M illin e ry 425 409 8* 8,172 66 8,655 an d L a u n d e r in g . (3 .9 ) (5 .9 ) F o o d s , B e v e ra g e s 1,772 1,832 22,766 47 and T o b a c c o . . . 179 22,948 (0 .8 ) (3 .4 ) W a te r , L ig h t and 7,508 8,532 5 P o w e r ................. ( — 12.0) 70,033 66,335 O th e r I n d u s t r ie s !. 349 (5 .6 ) 2,997 2,930 M is c e lla n e o u s . . . . 13 2,068 2,103 30 ( — 2 .2 ) ( — 1.7) r * L a u n d e r in g o n ly , f I n c lu d e s th e fo llo w in g in d u s t r ie s : M e ta ls , m a c h in e r y and c o n v e y a n c e s ; le a th e r an d r u b b e r g o o d s ; c h e m ic a ls , o ils an d p a i n t s ; p r in t in g and p a p e r g o o d s . F ig u r e s in p a re n th e se s in d ica te p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e s fr o m M a r c h , 1926. A p r i l, 1927 W inesap apples on April 12, 1927, was $1.80$1.90 per box, compared with a price of $1.50$1.65 a year ago. Generally excellent range feed conditions during March caused livestock producers tem porarily to withhold market shipments of cattle and sheep, but shipments of lambs increased during early April. The condition of ranges is reflected in the generally satisfactory condition of flocks and herds. Subnormal temperatures and frequent rains have interfered with lambing and with wool shearing in some sections. The Intermountain and Pacific Northwestern states report a 5 to 10 per cent decrease in lamb production in 1927 as compared with last year, while California and Arizona report a slight increase. Eastern shipments of live and dressed California spring lambs totaled 33,682 head up to April 17, 1927, compared with 27,038 head shipped up to the same date in 1926. A ctivity in w ool contract ing, which began in February, slackened in March after the bulk oi the Idaho, Utah, and Nevada clips and parts of the California Oregon, W ashington, and Arizona clips had been sold. Cattle have moved from winter to spring ranges. Seasonal receipts of fed cattle at the principal markets of the district have been smaller than a year ago, 83,724 head having been received during March, 1927, as com pared with 86,607 head in March, 1926. Recent price advances for certain grades of cattle have further improved the industry’s position. Industry Seasonal increases in industrial activity and volume of employment were reported during March, 1927. Statistical and non-statistical evidence indicates, however, that total indus trial output and volume of employment, both for March, 1927, and the first quarter of 1927, ( B ) Building Permits— B e r k e le y ............ B o is e ................... F r e s n o .............. L o n g B e a ch . . L o s A n g e le s . . O a k la n d ............ O g d e n ................ P a sa d e n a ............ P h o e n ix ............ P o r t la n d ............ R e n o ................... S a c r a m e n to . . . S alt L a k e C ity . S an D ie g o . . . . San F r a n c is c o San J o s e ............ S e a ttle ................ S p o k a n e ............ S t o c k t o n ............ T a com a ............ D is t r ic t .......... M a r c h , 1927 V a lu e N IS o . $ 1,235,464 205 92 58,520 115 419,341 552 1,528,185 11,111,774 3,596 873 1,547,613 37 67,510 898,512 225 522,514 121 2,460,035 1,217 22 141,950 217 675,346 85 395,995 2,048,084 842 4,685,162 900 361,855 114 1,066 3,492,610 286,299 246 473,789 93 277 653,610 10,895 $33,064,168 M a rch , 1926 N o. V a lu e 350 $ 915,517 67,211 81 117 216,374 1,475,724 425 1 3,879,558 3,849 1,062 2,315,059 178,300 47 847,408 227 89 187,996 1,488 3,710,850 15 33,850 348 883,083 151 942,785 870 2,050,333 1,010 3,944,343 162 399,250 1,137 2,880,390 337 412,971 112 268,620 322 675,890 12,199 $36 ,285,512 A p r il, 1927 29 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO have been smaller than for the corresponding periods of 1926. Curtailment in industrial activ ity has been relatively marked in the Pacific Northwest. In California, slight gains were reported throughout the first quarter af 1927, compared with the first three months of 1926. Building activity has continued at levels below those of recent years. There was a marked increase in the number and value of building permits issued in 20 principal cities of the district during March, 1927, as compared with February, 1927, but the figures were smaller than in March, 1926. Both number and value of building permits issued in these cities during the first quarter of 1927 were nearly 13 per cent smaller than during the first three months of 1926. A m ong reporting cities, Boise, Idaho; Fresno, Sacramento, and Stockton, Cal ifornia; Phoenix, A rizona; Reno, Nevada; and Portland, Oregon, reported gains in cost of proposed construction during the first quarter of 1927, as compared with the corresponding period of 1926. B U I L D I N G P E R M I T S I N 20 C I T I E S P er C e n t Increase or D ecrease (— ) M arch . . . . F e b ru a r y .. J a n u a ry . . . M o n th s in 1927 com pared with same M on th s in 1926 Y e a r-to -d a te M on th ly N o. V a lu e N o. V a lu e -1 2 .9 — 12.9 -1 0 .7 — 8.9 -1 4 .4 — 15.5 -1 3 .2 — 14.4 -1 5 .5 — 16.5 -1 5 .5 — 16.5 M onth in 1927 com pared with preceding M on th N o. V a lu e 41.1 44.5 - 1.9 — 6.0 3.6 — 19.2 A ccording to the index of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, wholesale prices of building materials stood at 166.8 (1913 p rice s= 100) in March, 1927, compared with an average of 168.1 for the first quarter of 1927 and of 177.0 for the first quarter of 1926. The March, 1927, index number is the smallest reported since July, 1922. The Aberthaw index of industrial building costs stood at 193 (1914 prices=100) on April 1st, the same level as one month pre vious, and the lowest level recorded since January, 1923. Continual shifting in both composition and number of lumber mills reporting to four asso ciations in this district makes the available statistics on lumber operations unreliable for comparison over extended periods of time. F ig ures presented in the table below serve only to illustrate broad trends within the lumber in dustry. Reports for March, 1927, indicate some seasonal expansion in lumbering operations, but the level of activity probably continued below that of one year ago. Market prices for lumber have, for some time, been unsatisfac tory to producers and many operators have re duced output in an effort to effect a satisfactory adjustment between supply of and active de mand for their product. LUM BER* -F ir s t T h r e e M o n t h s M a r .,1927 F e b ., 1927 M ar., 1926^ 1927 1926 (board fe e t) (.boardfeet) (board feet) P r o d u c t io n S h ip m e n ts .......... O rd e rs ................. U n fille d O r d e r s t N o . o f M ills R e p o rtin g î . . 491,655 589,061 ----------620,492 458,565 426,771 489,800 525,744 400,204 747,518 761,183 147 146 183 B e r k e l e y ................. B o is e ........................ F r e s n o ..................... L o n g B e a c h .......... L o s A n g e l e s .......... O a k la n d ................. O g d e n ...................... P a sa d en a .............. P h o e n ix .................. P o r t l a n d ................. R e n o ........................ S a c r a m e n to .......... S a lt L a k e C i t y . . S an D ie g o ............ San F r a n c is c o . . . San J o s e ................. S ea ttle ..................... S p o k a n e ................. S t o c k t o n ................. T a c o m a ................. Y a k i m a .................... $3,635,390 $3,341,153 $9,985,341 $9,416,975 (board feet) 1,378,257 1,605,821 1,729,803 1,796,748 1,964,492 2,042,387 153 180 792,462 511,405 * A s r e p o r te d b y fo u r a s s o c ia tio n s , 000 o m itte d e x c e p t in ca s e o f n u m b e r o f m ills r e p o r tin g . t R e p o r t e d b y th ree a s s o c ia tio n s . T h e fig u re s are n o t s t r ic t ly c o m p a r a b le w ith o th e r figu res a p p e a rin g in the ta b le . $ A v e ra g e . S ou rce: N a tio n a l L u m b e r M a n u fa c tu r e r s A s s o c ia t io n . Average daily production of petroleum de creased slightly (0.4 per cent) during March, 1927, as compared with February, 1927, and was 2.5 per cent (16,317 barrels) smaller than estimated average daily consumption, which declined 5.9 per cent during the month. The cpnsequent decline in stored stocks was the tenth such monthly decrease reported since March, 1926. On March 31, 1927, stored stocks, at 118,516,525 barrels, reached the lowest level since August, 1925, when they stood at 117,570,336 barrels. P E T R O L E U M — C aliforn ia Indicated A v e ra ge Stored A v era ge D aily S tock s at C on su m ption End o f D aily P rodu ction (Shipm ents) M o n th (barrels) r ~First T h re e M o n th s —» 1926 1927 M a rch , 1927 M a rch , 1926 64,092 $ 59,105 $ 20,216 $ $ 22,767 38,595 11,923 38,773 12,877 107,147 36,394 120,883 44,165 163,623 149,338 56,833 57,385 2,702,915 975,120 2,985,123 1,095,879 515,779 185,902 663,385 239,190 71,627 19,150 58,575 17,928 130,469 120,474 42,337 46,587 83,767 77,282 26,947 28,854 507,130 470,905 181,645 159,920 25,004 25,350 8,413 8,637 103,396 36,949 83,253 29,010 212,095 202,934 72,331 68,780 196,046 66,116 71,379 202,431 1,199,017 3,617,890 3,414,140 . 1,342,559 74,517 25,027 78,226 25,953 615,659 593,006 222,168 227,651 158,508 54,014 163,836 56,935 82,601 81,328 26,849 27,188 136,454 134,140 49,769 50,126 36,151 13,062 12,591 36,364 (board feet) M a r., 1927. . . . 639,862 1927. . . . 642,240 1926. . . . 607,283 (barrels) (barrels) 656,143 697,431 580,740 118,516,525 119,021,225 132,001,846 N e w W ells D aily P ro d u c tion N um ber O pened (barrels) 79 68 105 40,552 29,011 23,663 S o u r c e : A m e r ic a n P e t r o le u m I n s titu te . Figures of national non-ferrous metal pro duction, together with a guide to the propor tionate importance of this district in such production, follow : N O N -F E R R O U S M E T A L S N ational P roduction Per C en t o f Total P rodu ced in M a r., 12th D ist.* 1926 in 1926 75,450 64.1 52,873 51.6 54,411 13.3 M ar., F e b ., 1927 C o p p e r (s h o r t t o n s ) (m in e 1927 68,881 p r o d u c t io n ) ..................... 69,031 L e a d (s h o r t t o n s ) (c r u d e ) .......... 48,251 Z in c (s h o r t t o n s ) ( s l a b ) . 56,546 51,341 S ilv e r ( o z .) (c o m m e r c ia l b a r s ) ................................... 5,131,000 5,011,000 5,225,000 69.7 * I n c lu d in g all o f A r iz o n a , the five so u th e a ste rn c o u n tie s o f w h ic h are in the E le v e n th F e d e ra l R e s e r v e D is t r ic t . 30 A p r i l, 1927 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Greater than seasonal increases in flour mill ing activity were reported during March, 1927, and volume of flour output was 7.1 per cent larger than the five-year (1922-1926) average figure for that month. Flour output of 14 re porting milling factors in this district was 19.1 per cent larger in volume during March, 1927, than during February, 1927, compared with a five-year (1922-1926) average decrease of 1.3 per cent between these two months. Produc tion during March, 1927, was 29.9 per cent larger than during March, 1926. Stocks of flour in millers’ hands declined 4.1 per cent during March, and indicated consumption of flour was 4.2 per cent larger than production. F L O U R M IL L IN G * M a r . , 1927O u tp u t ( b b l s . ) . . . 461,617 S tock sf F lo u r ( b b l s .) .. • 449,286 W h eat ( b u . ) . . . 2,429,973 F e b . , 1927 387,551 468,617 2,857,031 M a r.,1 9 2 6 355,450 402,253 2,285,652 F iv e -Y e a r A v e ra g e M a rc h , 1922-1926 431,051 511,081 2,655,330 C o n s o l i d a t i o n s h a ve r e d u c e d the n u m b e r o f r e p o r t in g co m p a n ie s b u t h a v e n o t s e r io u s ly a ffe c te d th e c o m p a r a b ilit y o f the fig u re s , f A t e n d o f m o n th . D istrib ution and Trade The volume of trade transacted in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District during March, 1927, was seasonally greater than that transacted during February, 1927, and is esti mated to have approximated that of a year ago. Dollar value of sales reported by 117 retail stores, operating in seven lines of trade in this INDEX NUMBERS March increase in sales approximated the aver age seasonal movement recorded during the seven years, 1919-1925 inclusive. It is probable that the late date of Easter this year was, in part, responsible for the slight decline in re tailers’ sales as compared with March, 1926. Retail prices are estimated to have been lower than a year ago, a factor which no doubt also contributed to the decline in dollar amount of sales over the year period. Stocks of 68 stores in seven lines of trade were 3.3 per cent larger at the end of March this year than last, and were 7.3 per cent larger than at the close of February. Declining sales and increasing stocks are reflected in the rate of stock turnover which was less during March, 1927, than dur ing March, 1926, in all lines of trade at retail for which data are available. D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S A L E S — In d ex N u m b e rs ( 1 9 1 9 M onthly Average = 10 0 ) Los O ak la n d A n g e le s (6 )* (5 )* W it h o u t S e a s o n a l A d j u s tm e n t 147 M a r ., 1 9 2 7 ..,. 254 117 F e b ., 1 9 2 7 .. . 196 130 Jan ., 1 9 2 7 .. . 230 D e c ., 1 9 2 6 .. . 411 286 N o v ., 1 9 2 6 .. . 253 151 M a r ., 1926. . . 247 148 W it h S e a s o n a l A d j u s tm e n t M a r ., 1 9 2 7 .. . 254 157 F e b ., 1 9 2 7 .. . 242 155 152 J a n ., 1 9 2 7 .. . 243 171 D e c ., 1 9 2 6 .. . 272 149 N o v ., 1926. . . 253 M a r ., 1926. . . 2470 158 San F ra n c is c o (8 )* S a lt L ake C i ty (4 )* S e a tt l e (5 )* Spo kane (3 )* D is tric t (32)* 139 108 115 247 155 146 97 79 87 198 118 105 99 79 81 193 112 95 89 73 0 69 165 102 93 159 124 138 281 169 160 140 141 130 154 150 147 106 110 105 127 111 115 107 122 107 122 114 102 106 107 96 109 97 110 164 1620 157 180 171 164 * F ig u r e s in p a re n th e se s in d ica te n u m b e r o f sto re s. O n e sto re in c lu d e d in d is tric t fig u re s n o t in c lu d e d in c itie s s h o w n a b o v e . O R evised. Value of sales at wholesale during March, as indicated by reports of 208 firms in eleven lines of trade was substantially greater than in February of this year, but averaged 2.8 per cent less than in March, 1926. The decline in value of sales over the year period was less than the decline (4.1 per cent) in the general level of wholesale prices, as indicated by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index, and it is estimated that the volume of goods dis tributed through wholesale channels was at least as large during March, 1927, as during March, 1926. W H O LESA LE TRADE D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S A L E S -T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T N o . of F irm s *Based upon average month to month increase during the years 1919 to 1925 inclusive. district, was 1.8 per cent smaller during March, 1927, than during March, 1926, and was 27.9 per cent larger than in February, 1927. Sales of 41 department stores reporting to this bank during March averaged 1.6 per cent less than a year ago, and increased 24.1 per cent as com pared with a month ago. The February to P e r c e n ta g e i n c r e a s e o r d e c r e a s e (— ) ------------ in V a l u e o f S a le s — \ M a r . , 1927 M a r . , 1927 F e b . , 1927 c o m p a red c o m p a red c o m p a re d w ith w ith w ith M a r . , 1926 F e b . . 1927 F e b . . 1926 t I n d e x o f 32 S t o r e s in 7 c it i e s (1919 m o n th ly a v e r a g e = 1 0 0 ) . L a t e s t fig u re s , M a r c h , w ith a d ju s t m e n t , 164; w i th o u t --------a d ju s t m e n t , 159. A g r ic u ltu r a l I m p le m e n t s . A u t o m o b ile S u p p lie s . .. A u t o m o b ile T i r e s ............... 15 24 19 7 , 30 E le c tr ic a l S u p p lies .......... 11 17 27 22 13 P a p e r and S ta t io n e r y . . . . 23 208 — 13.2 — 0.5 — 1.8 2.8 — 9.6 4.4 — 2.5 — 0.3 — 4.8 — 4.9 2.7 — 2.8 67.7 18.9 35.1 19.1 21.2 10.1 8.6 11.5 21.0 29.5 15.3 18.7 — 22.4 6.0 15.2 — 0.4 6.9 — 2.3 — 5.1 0.9 — 5.5 — 9.5 0.2 — 1.4 31 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO A p r il, 1927 Prices The general level of wholesale prices de clined during March, 1927, for the sixth con secutive month, continuing the trend of the past two years. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index of prices of 404 com modities at wholesale declined from 146.4 for February, 1927, (1913 prices=100) to 145.3 for March, 1927. A ll of the group indexes included in the main index revealed slight declines with the exception of the metals, chemicals and drugs, and miscellaneous groups, which ad vanced fractionally. A year ago this index stood at 151.5. Prices of both agricultural and non-agricultural commodities declined during March, 1927, and the ratio between the two groups of prices, an indication of the purchasing power of farm products, changed little. For March, 1927, this ratio was 82.4 (pre-war purchasing p o w e r = 100) compared with 81.9 for February, 1927, and 87.0 for March, 1926. The United States Department of Agriculture’s index of prices paid for products at farms declined from 127 in February (August, 1909-July, 1914 p rice s= 100) to 126 in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index of prices of non-agricultural commodities declined from 155.0 in February (1909-1914 prices=100) to 152.9 in March. Excepting hogs, quotations for livestock at Chicago were higher during March, 1927, than during February, 1927, or March, 1926. Monthly average quotations are shown in the following ta ble: liv e s to c k p ric e s a t c h ic a g o (M o n th ly averages per 100 poun ds*) C a ttle $10.63 10.50 9.66 H ogs $11.47 11.81 12.11 L am bs $14.94 13.01 13.25 Sheep $8.09 7.66 8.04 April 1, 1926. On April 12, 1927, quotations for this contract ranged from $1.30% to $1.32% per bushel. Cotton prices, during March, maintained the advances recorded during February, and the general tone of the market was steadier than at any time since the drastic price declines of six months ago. Quotations for spot middling uplands cotton at New Orleans during the week ending April 1, 1927, ranged from 14.12 to 14.31 cents per pound, compared with a range from 14.06 to 14.55 cents per pound a month ago, and 17.96 to 18.55 cents per pound a year ago. The average of the daily quotations for the month of March, 1927, was approxi mately 2 per cent above the average for Febru ary, 1927. An average of 98 wool quotations on the Boston market stood at 65.44 cents per pound on April 1, 1927, compared with 65.71 cents a month ago, and 69.93 cents per pound a year ago. Sugar prices declined steadily during the first quarter of 1927, but recovered slightly in midApril. The quotation for refined beet sugar, f. o. b. San Francisco, on April 5,1927, $5.75 per 100 pounds, was ten cents below that of March 25th. By April 15th, however, the price had advanced to $5.90 per 100 pounds. Gasoline prices in California were reduced sharply during March and April, 1927. Price changes, made by the larger companies during the past six weeks, are shown in the following table : g a s o l in e p r ic e s (T a n k W a g o n ) 1927 S an F ra n c is c o S a c r a m e n to (C en ts per g allon) (C en ts per g a llo n ) (C en ts per g allon) 16 15 13 13 13 11 17 16 14 14 14 12 * A v e r a g e o f w e e k ly p r ice s . M arch 1 M a r c h 17 M a r c h 19 M a r c h 31 A p r il 15 A p ril 16 W heat prices declined steadily throughout March and the early weeks of April. Contract prices for May wheat at Chicago on April 1, 1927, ranged from $1.33^2 to $1.34)4 per bushel compared with a range of from $1.41 to $1.42% on March 4, 1927, and $1.55% to $1.58% on Monthly average prices of copper and lead advanced during the month, while the average price for silver declined. Prices of all of these metals were lower than a year ago. An index of softw ood lumber prices for the United States, published by “ The Lumber M arch , F e b ru a r y , M arch , 1 9 2 7 .............. 1 9 2 7 .............. 19 2 6 ............... ........................... .......................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... L o s A n g e le s 1554 1454 12^ 1054 854 854 (D) Commodity Prices— C o m m o d ity W h o le s a le P r ic e s (U . S. B u rea u o f L a b o r ) 1913— 1 0 0 ...................................... P u r c h a s in g P o w e r o f F a rm P r o d u c t s ( U . S. D e p t, o f A g r i c u l t u r e ) * . . . . C a ttle (N a t iv e B e e f ) . W e e k l y a v e r a g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o .................................... L a m b s ................................W e e k ly a v e ra g e p r ice at C h ic a g o ..................................... H o g s ..................................W e e k ly a v e ra g e p r ice at C h ic a g o ...................................... W h e a t ............................... C h ic a g o c o n t r a c t p r ic e f o r M a y w h e a t............................ W o o l ..................................A v e r a g e o f 98 q u o ta tio n s at B o s t o n ................................. A p p le s ............................... E x tr a F a n c y W in e s a p s , f. o . b . P a c ific N o r t h w e s t . O r a n g e s .............................N a v e ls, F a n c y , w h o le sa le at S an F r a n c is c o ............... P r u n e s ............................... S iz e 4 0 /5 0 in 2 5 -lb . b o x e s , f. o. b . C a lifo r n ia .......... R a is in s ............................... T h o m p s o n S e e d le s s , b u lk , in 25 -lb . b o x e s , f. o. b. C a n n ed P e a c h e s ............C h o ic e C lin g , s lic e d , 254s, f. o . b. C a l i f o r n i a . .. B u t t e r ............................... 92 s c o r e at S a n F r a n c i s c o ............................................... C o p p e r ............................... E le c t r o ly t ic , m o n th ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k . . . L e a d .................................... M o n t h ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k .................................. S i l v e r .................................. M o n th ly a v e ra g e at N e w Y o r k ................................... L u m b e r ( S o f t w o o d ) . . W e e k ly In d e x , U n ite d S t a t e s ! .................................. U n it 100 lb s. 100 lb s. 100 lb s. bu . lb . box box lb . lb . doz. lb. lb . lb. oz. A p r i l 1,1927 145.3 82.4 $10.90 15.75 10.90 1.33 J4-1.3454 65.440 $ 1 .8 0 -2 .0 0 4 .2 5 -4 .5 0 .0 7 - 0 7 5 4 O n e M o n th A g o 146.4 81.90 $10.60 14.90 11.70 1.41-1.425^ 65.710 $ 1 .8 5 -2 .0 0 4 .0 0 -5 .0 0 .07-.07J 4 O n e Y e a r A go 151.7 87.0 $9.50 12.50 11.70 1.5554-1.5854 69.930 $1 .5 5 -1 .6 0 4 .0 0 -4 .2 5 .0 8 5 4 -0 9 .0754 1 .8 5 -2 .1 0 .42 13.0790 7.5770 55.3060 30.52 .0754 1 .8 5 -2 .1 0 .46 12.6820 7.4200 57.8980 29.82 .0 7V4 2 .2 0 -2 .3 5 .42 13.8590 8.3860 65.8800 31.40 *Ratio of Farm Prices (August, 1909-July, 1914=100) to wholesale prices of non-agricultural commodities (1910-1914=100). tA s published by “ The Lumber Manufacturer and Dealer.” QRevised. 32 A p r i l, 1927 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Manufacturer and Dealer,” advanced from 29.82 in February to 30.52 for March, 1927. A year ago it stood at 31.40. Banking and Credit The banking and credit situation in the T welfth Federal Reserve District has changed little during recent weeks. Outstanding credits at reporting city member banks, although still Total earning assets of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco fluctuated between $96,000,000 and $122,000,000 during the first quar ter of 1927 but the general condition of the Bank showed little change over the threemonth period. From March 2nd to March 16th there was a marked decrease in volume of bills MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS, R E S E R V E B A N K C R E D I T -T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T F igu res fo r F ederal R e se rve B ank of San F ra n cisco , as o f last W e d n e s day o f each m onth. L atest figures, A p ril 20. large in amount, have declined slightly from the peak reached early in March. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Fran cisco at mid-April were also slightly lower than at the beginning of the previous month. Credit ease has been reflected in lowered inter est rates in the principal banking centers of the district. R E P O R T I N G M E M B E R B A N K S * — T w elfth D istrict (I n m illion s of dollars, percentage changes in parentheses) C o n d itio n A p ril 13, 1927 T o t a l L o a n s ........................... , . 1,300 C o m m e r c ia l L o a n s ............ , . 968 332 L o a n s o n S e c u r i t i e s .......... . . 504 In v e s t m e n t s ........................... T o t a l L o a n s and I n v e s tm e n ts 1,805 N e t D e m a n d D e p o s it s . . . 781 948 T im e D e p o s it s ...................... , . B o r r o w in g s fr o m F e d e ra l 42 R e s e r v e B a n k .................... /---------- C hanges from ---------- * O ne Y e a r O ne M onth Ago Ago ( + = - increase. — - = decrease. ) — 14 ( 1.0) + 103 ( 8.6) — 13 ( 1.3) + 60 ( 6.6) — 1 ( 0 .3 ) + 43 (1 4 .9 ) — 6 ( 1.3 ) + 36 ( 7.7) 139 ( 8.3) — 20 ( 1.1) — 11 ( 1.4) 7 ( 0.9) + + 118 (1 4 .4 ) — 5 (’ 0 .5 ) + 7 (2 1 .0 ) _j_ 5 (1 4 .4 ) * T o t a l r e s o u r c e s o f r e p o r t in g b a n k s are a p p r o x im a te ly 50 per c e n t o f to ta l r e s o u r c e s o f all b a n k s, and 70 p e r ce n t o f total r e s o u r c e s o f all m e m b e r b a n k s in the T w e lft h F e d e ra l R e s e r v e D is t r ic t . R e p o r t in g b a n k s e m b r a c e m e m b e r b a n k s in S a n F r a n c is c o , L o s A n g e le s , O a k la n d , P o r tla n d , Seattle, T a c o m a , S p o k a n e , S a lt L a k e C ity , and O g d e n . M E M B E R B A N K C R E D IT —T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T Figures for about 65 m em ber ban ks in leading cities, as of last W ed n esd a y o f each m onth. Latest figures, A p ril 20. discounted by the bank, and a similar m ove ment in its holdings of acceptances and United States Government securities. Increases in all of these items during the succeeding five weeks brought total earning assets on April 20th to approximately the level of March 2nd. A t 117 million dollars on the later date, total earning assets were $8,000,000 or 6.1 per cent smaller than one year ago. F E D E R A L R E SE R V E B A N K O F S A N F R A N C IS C O (in m illion s of dollars, percentage ch anges in parentheses) C o n d itio n A p ril 20, 1927 T o t a l B ills and S e c u r itie s . . . . B ills D i s c o u n t e d ................... U n ite d S tates S e c u r itie s . . . B ills B o u g h t ........................... T o t a l R e s e r v e s ...................... . . T o t a l D e p o s it s ...................... . . F e d e ra l R e s e r v e N o te C ir c u la tio n ........................... ,-------- C h an ges fro m ---------- s O n e M on th O ne Y ear Ago Ago (-f- = increase. — — decrease. ) 117 55 39 23 254 184 + 19 (1 8 .8 ) + 15 (3 6 .6 ) + 4 (1 0 .3 ) 0 — 16 ( 6 .0 ) + 2 ( 1.1) — 8 + 4 — 11 0 + 11 + 17 172 + — 12 ( 6 .5 ) 1 ( 0 .8 ) ( 6 .1 ) ( 6 .9 ) (2 1 .5 ) ( 4 .7 ) ( 9 .9 ) A substantial, black, cloth-covered, three-ring binder, large enough to contain one year’s (12) issues of this review, will be mailed prepaid to any address on our mailing list upon receipt of one dollar to cover actual costs.
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