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Inthis issue: F o o d S ta m p s : A B o o s t t o t h e S o u th e a s te r n E c o n o m y E n erg y a n d t h e E c o n o m y : fro m t h e S o u th e a s t A V ie w B a n k in g N o te s : I m p a c t o f S tro n g L oan D e m a n d s D is tric t B u sin e ss C o n d itio n s F o o d S ta m p s: A B o o st to th e S o u th e a ste rn E c o n o m y by Gene D. Sullivan F o o d s t a m p s in j e c t e d n e a r ly $ 4 1 5 m il li o n o f a d d e d p u r c h a s i n g p o w e r in t o t h e S ix t h D i s t r i c t e c o n o m y in 1 9 7 2 .1 T h e m o n t h l y a v e r a g e w a s a b o u t $ 3 4 m i l l i o n . In s o m e D i s t r i c t s t a t e s , 1 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u la t i o n d ir e c t l y f r o m b e n e f it e d t h e p r o g r a m , a v e r a g in g $ 1 7 a m o n t h p e r p e r s o n in a d d e d f o o d - b u y i n g p o w e r . In a d d i t io n , m e r c h a n t s in s o m e a r e a s r e a l iz e d s u b s t a n t ia l s a le s v o l u m e in c r e a s e s f r o m f o o d s t a m p p u r c h a s e s . T h e p r o g r a m h a s c o n t in u e d to expand r a p id ly , p a r t ic u la r ly in F lo r id a w h e re p a r t ic i p a t i o n began o n ly r e c e n t ly . T h e fo o d sta m p p ro g ra m w a s b e g u n as an o u tg ro w th o f g o v e rn m e n t s u r p lu s f o o d d is p o s a l . D u r in g t h e la t e F if t ie s a n d e a r l y S i x t i e s , t h e g o v e r n m e n t h a d v a s t s u p p li e s o f s t o r e d f o o d c o m m o d it i e s . It w a s t h o u g h t t h a t b y d is t r i b u t in g t h e s e c o m m o d it i e s to t h e p o o r , t h e g o v e r n m e n t c o u ld re d u c e its s u b s t a n t ia l s t o r a g e c o s t s a n d , a t t h e s a m e t i m e , e n h a n c e t h e w e l l - b e i n g o f c i t iz e n s u n a b le t o a f f o r d a d e q u a te n u t r i t io n . T o p e r m it m o r e v a r ie d d ie t s b y a l l o w i n g in d iv i d u a l f r e e d o m in f o o d c h o ic e s a n d to a l l o w t h e u s u a l t r a d e c h a n n e ls to p a r t ic i p a t e in f o o d s a le s , c o m m o d it y d is t r i b u t io n b e g a n to g iv e w a y to f o o d s t a m p s . T h is w a s f ir s t d o n e in 1 9 6 1 o n a p i lo t b a s is a n d w a s e v e n t u a ll y m a d e p e r m a n e n t b y t h e 1 9 6 4 S ta m p A c t . A b o u t th a t t im e , th e p ro g ra m re a c h e d t h e S ix t h Fo od D is t r ic t a n d b e g a n e x p a n d i n g r a p i d l y ; h o w e v e r , a ll c o u n t i e s a r e n o t y e t p a r t ic i p a t i n g in f o o d s t a m p d is t r i b u t io n (s e e C h a r t I). F o o d s t a m p s g r e w r a p id ly in t o a m a j o r w e l f a r e p r o g r a m . A lt h o u g h t h e n a t io n a l p r o g r a m b e g a n a t a n e t s u b s i d y o f le s s t h a n $ 4 0 0 ,0 0 0 in 1 9 6 1 , t h e g o v e r n m e n t f o o d s t a m p s u b s i d y r e a c h e d a p p r o x i m a t e ly $ 2 b i l l i o n T h e n u m b e r o f p a r t ic i p a n t s in c r e a s e d f r o m in 1 9 7 2 . a b o u t 5 0 ,0 0 0 a t t h e o u t s e t to m o r e t h a n 1 2 m il li o n b y 1 9 7 2 . T h e s u b s i d y e x t e n d e d t h r o u g h f o o d s t a m p s o v e r s h a d o w e d t h e c o m b in e d c o st o f th e fo o d d is t r i b u t io n a n d c h ild n u t r i t io n p r o g r a m s a n d a c c o u n t e d f o r a b o u t 6 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l c o s t o f a ll U S D A fo o d p r o g r a m s (s e e T a b le 1 ) . O p e r a t io n o f t h e P r o g r a m A lt h o u g h t h e f o o d s t a m p s u b s i d y r e f e r s t o t h e v o l u m e o f s t a m p s d is t r i b u t e d f r e e o f c h a r g e , m o s t r e c i p i e n t s a r e r e q u ir e d to p a y s o m e p o r t io n o f t h e c o s t o f t h e ir t o t a l s t a m p a l lo t m e n t . T h e p a y m e n t d e p e n d s u p o n a f a m i l y 's in c o m e ’ T h e S ix th F e d e r a l R e s e r v e D i s t r i c t i n c l u d e s a ll o f A l a b a m a , F l o r i d a , a n d G e o r g i a a n d p a r t s o f L o u i s i a n a , M is s is s ip p i, a n d T e n n e s s e e . T h e D is tr ic t d a ta r e p o r t e d in th is a r ti c le w e r e d r a w n f r o m t h e to ta l a r e a o f a ll six s t a te s . M o n th ly R e v ie w , V o l. L V III, N o . 6. Free su b s c rip tio n an d a d d itio n a l c o p ie s a v a ila b le u p o n re q u e st to th e R e se a rch D e p a rtm e n t, Fe d e ra l R e s e rv e B a n k o f A tla n ta , A tla n ta , G e o rg ia 3 0 30 3. JUNE 1973, MONTHLY REVIEW Chart I Percent of Population Participating □ 20% or greater □ Under 20% n No food stamp program T h e Fo o d S ta m p P ro g ra m c o v e r s m o st c o u n t ie s in th e D is t r ic t le v e l a n d its e s t im a t e d e x p e n d it u r e . W h e n n o rm a l m o n t h ly fo o d TABLE 1 t h e in c o m e le v e l is u n d e r Federal Cost of USDA Food Programs, In The U. S., 1969-72* ($ Millions) $ 2 0 p e r m o n t h f o r o n e - a n d t w o - p e r s o n h o u s e h o ld s a n d u n d e r $ 3 0 f o r a ll o t h e r s , f a m il ie s a r e e n t it le d to r e c e i v e f o o d s t a m p s f r e e o f c h a r g e (s e e T a b le 2 ). In a n y c a s e , a f a m il y c a n n o t b e r e q u ir e d to p a y m o re th a n 3 0 p e r c e n t o f m o n t h l y h o u s e h o ld in c o m e f o r t h e ir f o o d s t a m p a l lo t m e n t . Calendar Year 1969 Bonus Stamps2 272 Food Distri bution3 540 Child Nutri tion4 340 Total 1,152 1970 1,103 602 491 2,198 s t a m p s a t t h e b e g in n in g o f e a c h m o n t h , a lt h o u g h 1971 1,692 650 772 3,115 t h e y m a y d e c id e t o r e c e i v e o n ly t h r e e - q u a r t e r s , 1972 1,985 575 953 3,513 Q u a lifie d r e c ip ie n t s u s u a l ly b u y a ll t h e ir f o o d o n e - h a l f , o r o n e - q u a r t e r o f t h e ir a l lo t m e n t a t t h a t t im e . T h e y a r e p e r m it t e d to p u r c h a s e s t a m p s o n ly t w ic e a m o n t h , h o w e v e r . T h e a l lo t m e n t is b a s e d u p o n t h e n u m b e r o f in d iv i d u a l s in t h e f a m il y a n d t h e a m o u n t o f m o n e y n e e d e d to p r o v i d e t h a t f a m il y w it h a d e q u a t e n u t r i t io n f o r a m o n t h . T h e a v e ra g e r e c ip ie n t p a y s fo r a b o u t 55 p e r c e n t o f ’Totals may not add due to rounding. 2Excludes stamps paid for by the recipient. 3Includes cost of food delivered to states for distribution to needy families, schools, and other nonprofit institutions. 'Includes funds donated for local purchase of food under the School Lunch, School Breakfast, Special Food, and Special Milk programs. Source: Economic Research Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture th e to ta l v a lu e o f fo o d s ta m p s r e c e iv e d . T h e FEDERAL BANK OF ATLANTA Digitized forRESERVE FRASER 87 TABLE 2 S e le c te d Number in Household Value of Food Stamps Allotted M o n t h ly a n d R e q u ir e d P a y m e n ts1 l 2 4 6 8 $36 $64 $112 $152 $192 (Net Monthly Household Income) $ A llo t m e n t s ($ Paid by Recipients for Above Stamp Allotment) Free Free 29 45 63 87 108 134 152 Free Free 27 43 61 85 104 120 2 Free Free 25 41 59 82 88 Free 1 23 36 44 2 Free 1 18 26 2 0-19.99 20-29.99 100-109.99 150-169.99 210-229.99 290-309.99 360-389.99 480-509.99 630-640.00 ’Allotments are higher in Alaska and Hawaii because of higher food costs in those states. -Ineligible income level. Source: Food and Nutrition Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture s t a m p s a llo t t e d o v e r t h o s e f o r w h ic h t h e r e c i p i e n t s u b s id y p a y s c a s h a re c a te g o r iz e d as b o n u s fo o d sta m p s s h a r e h a d g r o w n to a b o u t 2 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e U . S . a n d r e f le c t t h e s u b s i d i z e d p o r t io n o f t h e p r o g r a m . F a m ilie s m a y r e d e e m f o o d s t a m p s o n ly a t in 1963. H o w e v e r, by 1 9 6 8 , th e D is t r ic t 's t o t a l a n d h a s r e m a in e d n e a r t h a t s h a r e s i n c e (s e e C h a r t II a n d T a b le 3 ) . In 1 9 7 2 , p a r t ic i p a n t s n u m a u t h o r iz e d s t o r e s , a n d t h e s t a m p s c a n b e u s e d o n ly b e r e d o n ly 1 7 .2 p e r c e n t o f t h e U . S . t o t a l , m a k in g f o r d o m e s t ic a ll y p r o d u c e d t h e s u b s id y p e r p e r s o n fo o d it e m s . I f a c u s t o m e r u s e s s t a m p s to p u r c h a s e e it h e r n o n f o o d it e m s o r im p o r t e d fo o d s , th e m e r c h a n t 's a u t h o r iz a t i o n to a c c e p t f o o d s t a m p s c a n b e re v o k e d . h ig h e r in th e r e g io n t h a n in t h e n a t io n a s a w h o l e . Am ong D i s t r i c t s t a t e s , L o u is ia n a h a s r e c e iv e d t h e la r g e s t f o o d s t a m p s u b s i d y . T o t a l v a l u e o f b o n u s c o u p o n s is s u e d in t h e s t a t e a m o u n t e d to $ 9 1 T h e m e r c h a n t p a s s e s a lo n g to h is c o m m e r c i a l m il li o n in 1 9 7 2 , n e a r ly o n e - t h i r d m o re th a n th e b a n k t h e s t a m p s h e a c c e p t s in t r a d e . T h e b a n k $ 6 2 m il li o n tr e a t s t h e s t a m p s a s a c a s h d e p o s i t , s o r t s t h e m p o s it i o n . A la b a m a , w it h t h e s m a l le s t s u b s i d y , in t o e v e n q u a n t it i e s b y d e n o m i n a t i o n , a n d f o r w a r d s r e c e i v e d o n ly $ 4 0 m i l l i o n th e m to t h e s e r v ic i n g F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o r re c e iv e d b y M is s is s i p p i in s e c o n d (s e e C h a r t I I I ) . F l o r id a e n t e r e d t h e f o o d s t a m p p r o g r a m d u r in g B r a n c h . T h e c o m m e r c i a l b a n k t h e n r e c e iv e s c r e d it f is c a l 1 9 7 0 a n d h a s b e e n r e s p o n s ib le f o r a m a j o r f o r a n e q u i v a le n t a m o u n t o f c a s h . T h e F e d e r a l s h a re o f D is t r ic t g ro w th R e s e r v e B a n k , in t u r n , t r e a t s t h e s e n e g o t ia t e d f o o d n e g lig ib le v o l u m e o f b o n u s s t a m p s d is t r i b u t e d in s in c e th a t t im e . T h e s t a m p s a s c u r r e n c y a n d s u b je c t s e a c h in c o m i n g F l o r id a d u r i n g t h e f ir s t y e a r in c r e a s e d to $ 1 3 m i l l i o n p a c k a g e to t h e p i e c e - b y - p ie c e in 1 9 7 1 a n d ju m p e d to $ 4 6 m i l l i o n in f is c a l 1 9 7 2 . a c c o u n t in g p r o c e d u r e u s e d in h a n d lin g in c o m i n g c u r r e n c y . O n c e t h e q u a n t it y o f s t a m p s b y d e n o m i n a t i o n D u r in g e a rly f is c a l 1 9 7 3 , F l o r i d a 's b o n u s s t a m p v o l u m e e x c e e d e d a n y o t h e r D i s t r i c t s t a t e , i n d ic a t i v e h a s b e e n v e r i f i e d , t h e y a r e c a n c e le d a n d s u b je c t e d o f its c o n t in u i n g to t h e r e g u la r d e s t r u c t io n p r o c e s s f o l l o w e d w h e n E v e n s o , F lo r i d a p a r t ic i p a n t s a m o u n t e d t o o n ly 8 u n f it c u r r e n c y is r e m o v e d f r o m p e r c e n t o f t h e s t a t e p o p u la t i o n c ir c u la t io n . F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k s a r e t h e n r e im b u r s e d f r o m t h e T r e a s u r y 's a c c o u n t f o r t h e f u l l v a l u e o f s t a m p s th u s a c c e p te d a n d d e s tro y e d . In M is s is s i p p i, r a p id g r o w t h by in t h e p r o g r a m . (s e e T a b l e 4 ) . c o m p a r is o n , p a r t ic i p a n t s m a d e u p 1 5 .4 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u la t i o n , a n d in L o u is ia n a , 1 4 .4 p e r c e n t r e c e i v e d f o o d s t a m p s . T h u s , in L o u is ia n a a n d M is s is s i p p i, t h e p r o g r a m R e g io n G e t s a G e n e r o u s S h a r e has had a p r o p o r t io n a t e l y la r g e r im p a c t o n t h e p o p u la t i o n 's In t h e e a r l y y e a r s o f t h e p r o g r a m , S ix t h D is t r ic t s t a t e s a c c o u n t e d f o r a m in o r p o r t io n o f t o t a l f o o d w e lf a r e th a n in o t h e r D i s t r i c t s t a t e s . T h e n u m b e r o f r e c i p i e n t s is lo w e s t in A la b a m a , s t a m p c o u p o n v a l u e , r e c e i v in g $ 1 .1 m il li o n o r 5 .9 w h e r e o n ly 6 .3 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u la t i o n a n d o n ly p e r c e n t o f t h e $ 1 8 .6 - m i lli o n n a t io n a l f o o d c o u p o n 2 5 o f 9 5 t o t a l c o u n t i e s h a v e p a r t ic i p a t e d 88for FRASER Digitized in t h e JUNE 1973, MONTHLY REVIEW Chart II S ix t h D is t r ic t s t a t e s c o n ta in a s m a ll p a rt o f th e B u t p ro v id e a h ig h e r p ro p o rtio n o f p a r t ic ip a n t s in th e U . S . p o p u la tio n . . . Fo o d S ta m p P ro g ra m . . . A n d r e c e iv e a s t i l l h ig h e r s h a re o f B o n u s Fo od c o u p o n s . a c c o u n t f o r s u c h a s m a ll p r o p o r t io n o f t o t a l s a le s p r o g r a m . A lt h o u g h t h e n u m b e r o f r e c i p i e n t s h a s b e e n h ig h e r in G e o r g i a , t h e r e , t o o , t o t a l p a r t ic i p a t h a t t h e ir e f f e c t b e c o m e s s u b m e r g e d a t t h e s t a t e t io n a m o u n t e d to a r e l a t iv e ly s m a ll p o r t io n o f t h e w id e le v e l (s e e T a b le 5 ). A la r g e g r o c e r y c h a in w it h s t o r e s t h r o u g h o u t p o p u la t i o n . S e v e r a l o f t h e s t a t e 's m o s t h e a v il y th e S o u th e a s t re p o rte d p o p u la t e d c o u n t i e s a r e s t ill o u t s id e t h e p r o g r a m . in c r e a s in g s a le s d u r in g t h e t i m e f o o d s t a m p d is t r i b u t io n w a s r is in g . H o w E f f e c t o n G r o c e r y S a le s e v e r , t h e r e l a t iv e p r o p o r t io n s o f m e a t a n d p r o d u c e R e t a il g r o c e r y s a le s a t t h e r e g io n a l le v e l d o n o t in t o t a l g r o c e r y s a le s d o n o t a p p e a r to h a v e a p p e a r c lo s e ly c h a n g e d s i g n if ic a n t l y in t h e p e r io d f r o m 1 9 7 0 to r e la t e d to th e v o lu m e s t a m p s is s u e d . A lt h o u g h o f fo o d b o t h s e r ie s h a v e b e e n r is in g , p a r t i c u l a r l y s i n c e 1 9 6 9 , t h e in c r e a s e r e t a il f o o d v o l u m e a t t r i b u t a b le t o f o o d 1 9 7 2 w h e n th e p ro g ra m in w a s d e v e lo p in g . A ls o , s in c e s a le s w e r e in c r e a s in g a t a ll t h e c h a in 's s t o r e s , sta m p it is d i f f i c u l t to a t t r ib u t e in c r e a s in g s a le s a t a p u r c h a s e s is n o t i d e n t if ia b le . E v e n in M is s is s i p p i, p a r t ic u la r e s t a b li s h m e n t to t h e d is t r i b u t io n w h e r e o v e r 1 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u la t i o n h a s b e e n fo o d s ta m p s w it h in th a t a re a . p a r t ic i p a t i n g , f o o d s t a m p d is t r i b u t io n has n o t of O n a lo c a l l e v e l, s t a m p s s o m e t im e s d o h a v e a h a d a m e a s u r a b le e f f e c t o n s t a t e w i d e r e t a il g r o c e r y s u b s t a n t ia l im p a c t o n s a le s a t in d iv i d u a l s t o r e s . s a le s . It is a p p a r e n t t h a t f o o d s t a m p p u r c h a s e s A lt h o u g h g r o c e r y s a le s f ig u r e s a t c o u n t y and TABLE 3 B o n u s F o o d S ta m p ($ Fiscal year Ala. 1961 1962 1963 1964 0.4 1.8 1965 1966 1967 1968 1.5 1.5 1.6 3.7 Fla. Ga. C o u p o n s Is s u e d M illio n s ) La. Miss. 0.6 1.4 0.01 0.3 0.9 2.4 Tenn. Six States U. S. 0.1 0.9 1.1 4.1 0.4 13.2 18.6 28.6 2.2 4.6 5.2 6.5 1.9 6.1 16.6 1.5 4.1 5.8 9.1 5.2 12.4 19.6 38.3 32.5 64.8 105.6 173.1 1969 1970 1971 19721 6.1 15.4 36.1 39.6 1.4 12.8 46.1 4.8 11.5 37.9 44.7 9.1 33.7 87.1 91.2 17.5 33.1 66.1 62.5 10.3 25.9 64.0 61.2 47.8 121.0 304.0 345.3 228.8 549.6 1,522.7 1,796.7 19732 21.0 57.1 27.9 56.0 35.7 33.5 231.2 1,052.1 ’Preliminary figure “First half of fiscal year Source: Statistical Summary of Operations, Food Stamp Program, Food and Nutrition Service, USDA FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA 89 Chart III B o n u s fo o d s t a m p s q u ic k ly re a c h la rg e s u m in S o u t h e a s t M il. $ f o o d s t a m p d is t r i b u t io n to d e t e r m in e if f o o d s t a m p s m a y h a v e h a d a m o r e s e l e c t iv e e f f e c t o n t h e p r ic e s o f g r o c e r y it e m s p u r c h a s e d in in c r e a s in g q u a n t it i e s . H e r e a g a in , a lt h o u g h t h e f o o d p r ic e in d e x h a s b e e n r is in g t h r o u g h o u t m o s t o f t h e p e r io d o f in c r e a s in g f o o d s t a m p a v a i l a b i l i t y , t h e r e is n o c l e a r in d ic a t i o n t h a t p r ic e in c r e a s e s h a v e b e e n c a u s e d b y in c r e a s in g v o lu m e s o f fo o d sta m p s. Though fa r fro m a s t a t i s t i c a ll y s i g n if ic a n t r e l a t io n s h ip , m o n t h - t o - m o n t h c h a n g e s in t h e d o l l a r v o l u m e o f f o o d s t a m p s f r o m A p r i l 1 9 6 9 t h r o u g h 1 9 7 2 w e r e m o r e c l o s e l y r e la t e d to m o n t h l y c h a n g e s in m e a t p r ic e s t h a n to c h a n g e s in t h e o v e r - a ll C o n s u m e r F o o d P r ic e I n d e x . C r it ic is m s D e s p it e r e c i p i e n t b e n e f it s , t h e f o o d s t a m p p r o g r a m h a s r e c e iv e d a n u m b e r o f c r it ic is m s . O n e o f th e r e m a r k s h e a r d m o s t o f t e n a t t h e c o m m u n i t y le v e l h a s t o d o w it h t h e in e q u i t y b e t w e e n r e c i p i e n t s a n d ’69 ’70 ’71 w a g e e a r n e r s w h o a r e n o t r e c i p i e n t s . In s o m e ’73* * P ro je c te d c o m m u n i t ie s , it w a s r e p o r t e d t h a t f o o d s t a m p s o f t e n m a k e it p o s s ib le f o r p e o p le w h o d o n o t w o r k to e n jo y a h ig h e r s t a n d a r d o f li v i n g t h a n t h o s e w h o d o . A s a r e s u lt , in s o m e a r e a s p o t e n t i a l e m p l o y e e s c o m m u n it y le v e ls w e r e in f o r m a t i o n m a y b e d is c o u r a g e d f r o m n o t a v a il a b l e , s o m e w a s o b t a in e d b y i n t e r v ie w in a r e a s w h e r e m o r e t h a n 2 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u la t i o n p a r t ic i p a t e d in t h e f o o d s t a m p p ro g ra m . S to re m a n a g e rs sta te d th a t th e e ffe c t o f fo o d sta m p s on A n o t h e r c r i t ic i s m ta n t to th e f a m il y ' s e s s e n t ia l it e m f in d i n g jo b s . is t h a t f o o d , a lt h o u g h w e ll- b e in g , is im p o r n o t th e o n ly fo r th e p o o r , p a r t ic u la r ly th e e ld e r l y . M a n y o f t h e s e f a m il ie s n e e d p e r s o n a l t o t a l s a le s w a s d i f f i c u l t to q u a n t if y , b u t in c r e a s e d m e r c h a n d is e a n d h o u s e h o ld c le a n in g g o o d s w h ic h p u rc h a s e s a r e a ls o im p o r t a n t to t h e ir h e a lt h b u t w h i c h c a n n o t of m eat and o th e r m o re c o s tly fo o d it e m s w e r e e v i d e n t w h e n n e w s t a m p s w e r e is s u e d b e p u r c h a s e d w it h f o o d s t a m p s . S o m e h a v e v o i c e d a t t h e b e g in n in g o f e a c h m o n t h . S o m e m a n a g e r s th e o f s m a l le r “ n e ig h b o r h o o d " s t o r e s in d ic a t e d th a t e x t e n d e d to c o v e r p e r s o n a l h y g ie n e p r o d u c t s . a s m u c h a s 5 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e ir t o t a l b u s in e s s is T h is w o u ld b e p a r t ic u la r ly h e lp f u l t o s o m e e l d e r l y dependent upon th a t sta m p e lig ib ilit y s h o u ld be p e o p le w h o f e e l t h e y d o n o t n e e d a ll o f t h e f o o d fo o d sta m p c u s to m e rs . In o n e c o u n t y w h e r e f o o d s t a m p u s a g e is p a r t i c u l a r l y h e a v y , lo c a l b u s in e s s m e n c o n t e n d t h a t s u d d e n c e s s a t io n o f t h e p r o g r a m w o u ld o p in io n r e s u lt in a t h e y c a n p u r c h a s e w it h f o o d s t a m p a l lo t m e n t s . T h e n u m b e r o f f o o d s t a m p s is s u e d to a f a m il y m a y b e m o r e t h a n e n o u g h f o r its t o t a l f o o d n e e d s . s h a r p e c o n o m ic d e c li n e in t h e c o m m u n i t y . T h e y re p o rt th a t th e e ffe c ts o f fo o d s ta m p a v a ila b ilit y a r e e v i d e n t n o t o n ly in g r o c e r y s a le s b u t a ls o in TABLE 4 o t h e r m e r c h a n d i s e s a le s . In s u c h c a s e s , n o n f o o d m e r c h a n d i s e s a le s h a v e b e n e f it e d f r o m f u n d s t h a t o t h e r w is e w o u ld Comparison of Population and Food Stamp Participants h a v e b e e n s p e n t fo r fo o d . F o o d S t a m p s a n d P r ic e s Population1 M a s s iv e in c r e a s e s in th e C o n su m e r Food P r ic e I n d e x , p a r t ic u la r ly d u r in g 1 9 7 2 , h a v e b e e n la r g e ly a t t r i b u t a b le to th e g r o w in g dem and fo r fo o d p r o d u c t s . S o m e o f t h is d e m a n d h a s s t e m m e d f r o m t h e a d d e d p u r c h a s in g p o w e r t h a t f o o d s t a m p s h a v e p la c e d in t h e h a n d s o f c o n s u m e r s . B u t h a v e r is in g f o o d p r ic e s r e a l ly b e e n c a u s e d b y t h e in c r e a s e d u s e o f f o o d s t a m p s ? C h a n g e s in t h e C o n s u m e r F o o d P r ic e I n d e x a n d in f o o d s t a m p d is t r i b u t io n w e r e e x a m in e d f o r a s t a t i s t i c a ll y id e n t if ia b le r e l a t io n s h ip . A l s o , t h e m e a t , p o u l t r y , a n d f is h p r ic e in d e x w a s r e la t e d to c h a n g e s in 90for FRASER Digitized Alabama Florida Georgia Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee % of Food Pop. Stamp ReceivPartici ingFood pants2 Stamps 3,444,148 6,789,383 4,589,569 3,640,442 2,216,850 3,923,726 216,580 544,802 318,331 525,970 342,062 325,323 6.3 8.0 6.9 14.4 15.4 8.3 Total District States 24,604,118 Total U. S. 204,265,000 2,273,068 12,328,416 9.2 6.0 'Based on 1970 Census of Population -Number reported in December 1972 by the Food and Nutrition Service JUNE 1973, MONTHLY REVIEW it e m s in e l ig ib l e f o r f o o d s t a m p s , it c a n t r a d e TABLE 5 Retail Grocery Sales and Bonus Food Stamps Distributed in Mississippi Stamps Grocery Bonus as % Sales Stamps of Sales f o o d s t a m p p u r c h a s e s f o r s u c h it e m s t h a t o t h e r f r ie n d s a n d a s s o c ia t e s h a v e p a id f o r w it h c a s h . T h is h as b e c o m e p e rh a p s o n e o f th e m o re su c c e s s fu l m e a n s o f t h w a r t in g t h e in t e n d e d p u r p o s e o f th e p ro g ra m . ($ Millions) S to re m a n a g e rs a n d 1970 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1971 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. * * * * * * 73.20 72.05 73.31 69.95 65.82 74.09 * * 4.84 4.85 4.84 4.93 5.25 5.32 5.35 5.08 5.41 5.48 __ — — — — — 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 8.2 7.4 64.67 61.92 69.36 70.23 73.00 76.14 81.11 84.79 74.71 81.22 65.50 79.58 5.61 5.91 5.98 5.77 5.51 5.38 5.33 5.31 5.22 5.15 4.87 5.00 8.7 9.5 8.6 8.2 7.5 7.1 6.6 6.3 7.0 6.3 7.4 . 6.3 1972 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 75.43 75.54 78.20 83.30 81.33 84.08 87.04 83.35 93.25 85.86 78.97 99.85 5.12 5.31 5.24 5.22 5.36 5.47 5.93 6.12 6.09 6.03 5.82 5.86 6.8 7.0 6.7 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.8 7.3 6.5 7.0 7.4 5.9 *Data not available Source: Grocery sales were published by the Mississippi Business Review. Data for bonus food stamps were provided by the Food and Nutrition Service, USDA. r e t a il c l e r k s f in d it b u r d e n s o m e to k e e p a c c o u n t o f t h e it e m s t h a t m a y b e p u rc h a se d w it h fo o d s ta m p s . F o r e x a m p le , t w o c a n n e d h a m s s i t t in g s id e b y s id e o n t h e m e a t c o u n t e r m a y d i f f e r in e l i g i b i l i t y i f o n e w a s p a c k e d in s id e t h e c o u n t r y a n d t h e o t h e r o u t s id e . In a d d i t io n , it is d e s ir a b le to know in ad vance w h e t h e r a c u s t o m e r in t e n d s to p u r c h a s e g r o c e r ie s w it h f o o d s t a m p s b e c a u s e a s e p a r a t e t a l ly is r e q u ir e d f o r it e m s t h a t m u s t b e p a id f o r w it h c a s h . M e r c h a n t s c o m p la i n t h a t f r e q u e n t ly t h e m e a n s o f p u r c h a s e is n o t k n o w n in a d v a n c e a n d a g re a t d e a l o f t im e a n d p a t ie n c e is r e q u ir e d to r e p e a t th e c h e c k - o u t p r o c e s s in o r d e r to b e s u r e t h a t in e l ig ib l e it e m s h a v e b e e n b i ll e d s e p a r a t e ly . M e a n w h i l e , o t h e r c u s t o m e r s in lin e a t t h e c h e c k - o u t c o u n t e r o f t e n b e c o m e e x a s p e r a t e d . In a d d i t io n , a n u n k n o w n c u s t o m e r c o m i n g in t o t h e s t o r e m a y b e e m b a r r a s s e d if t h e m e r c h a n t in q u i r e s w h e t h e r t h e in d iv i d u a l p la n s to u s e f o o d s t a m p s . T h e f o o d s t a m p p r o g r a m n e c e s s it a t e s a d d it io n a l w o r k f r o m t h e f ir s t c o m m e r c i a l b a n k t h a t r e c e iv e s th e s e sta m p s th ro u g h th e F e d e ra l R e s e rv e B a n k s . A lt h o u g h s t a m p s a r e a s u b s t it u t e f o r c a s h a t t h e r e t a il s t o r e , t h e y a r e n o t n e g o t ia b le a n d t h e y m u s t b e h a n d le d s e p a r a t e ly in t h e b a n k in g s y s t e m . F e d e r a l R e se rv e B a n k s h a v e fo u n d it n e c e s s a r y to a d d n u m e r o u s e m p l o y e e s f o r t h e s o le p u r p o s e o f p r o c e s s in g f o o d s t a m p s . N e i t h e r c o m m e r c i a l n o r F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k s r e c e i v e c o m p e n s a t io n f o r t h e a d d i t io n a l s e r v ic e s r e q u ir e d in t h is s p e c ia l h a n d lin g . B e c a u s e o f t h is , m a n y r e c i p i e n t s m a y b e c o m e le s s T h u s , t h e f u l l e x p e n s e s o f o p e r a t in g t h e p r o g r a m p r ic e a r e n o t a c c o u n t e d f o r in t h e c o s t f ig u r e s p u b lis h e d c o n s c io u s in s h o p p in g . D u r in g th e re ce n t r u n - u p in m e a t p r ic e s , s o m e f o o d s t a m p r e c ip ie n t s b y t h e F o o d a n d N u t r i t io n S e r v ic e . C r i t i c s a ls o f e e l r e p o r t e d ly w e r e a b le t o c o n t in u e p u r c h a s in g e x p e n t h a t t h e $ 2 - b i I lio n s u b s i d y e x t e n d e d b y t h e 1 9 7 2 s iv e m e a t w it h o u t r e g a r d to p r ic e . A l s o , w a s t e f u l fo o d sta m p p ro g ra m a n d u n w is e u sa g e o f s ta m p s h a s b e e n o b s e r v e d . th a t th e c o s t o f th e p ro g ra m A lt h o u g h t h e f o o d s t a m p p r o g r a m is m o n it o r e d b y t h e U S D A , s o m e p r o g r a m a b u s e s a p p a r e n t ly e s c a p e d e t e c t io n . F o r e x a m p l e , if a f a m i l y f a il s to is e x c e s s iv e , a n d t h e y n o t e is c o n t in u i n g to r is e r a p id ly . D e s p it e t h e s e i r r e g u la r it i e s , v e r y s u b s t a n t ia l b e n e f it s h a v e b e e n c o n f e r r e d o n f o o d s t a m p u t il iz e a ll its s t a m p s in a p a r t ic u la r m o n t h , t h e r e r e c i p i e n t s . V ie w e d in p e r s p e c t i v e , t h e f o o d s t a m p is n o a c c o u n t in g f o r t h e u n u s e d s t a m p s t h a t m a y p r o g r a m , m o r e o v e r , is b y n o m e a n s t h e f ir s t o r t h e a c c u m u l a t e . T h e c o n s id e r a b le p u r c h a s i n g p o w e r la r g e s t s u b s i d y v o t e d b y t h e U . S . C o n g r e s s . It h a s re p re s e n te d b y a c c u m u la t io n s o f u n u s e d fo o d p r o v id e d m il li o n s o f A m e r ic a n s w it h t h e m e a n s o f s t a m p s e v e n t u a ll y b e c o m e s a t e m p t a t io n to s o m e a l le v i a t i n g h u n g e r a n d m a l n u t r it io n . r e c i p i e n t s . In s u c h c a s e s , b l a c k m a r k e t s a l le g e d l y c o s t l y s u b s id ie s a r e s h a r e d b y o n ly a f r a c t io n o f th e h a v e s p r u n g u p in w h ic h f o o d s t a m p s a r e a c c e p t a b l e p a r t ic i p a n t s in v o l v e d in t h e f o o d s t a m p p r o g r a m . Fro m f o r a w id e r a n g e o f n o n f o o d it e m s . P u r c h a s e s w it h f o o d s t a m p s h a v e b e e n li m it e d to p r o h i b i t t h e ir u s e f o r p u r c h a s in g im p o r t e d S e v e ra l m o re t h e s t a n d p o in t o f c o s t p e r r e c i p i e n t , t h e p r o g r a m h a s p r o b a b ly b e e n o n e o f t h e le a s t e x p e n s iv e s u b s id ie s . W h e n a c c o u n t is t a k e n o f g r o c e r y p r o d u c ts , to b a c c o , a lc o h o l, a n d o t h e r ty p e s o f r e t a ile r s , w h o le s a l e r s , a n d n o n e s s e n t ia l as fo o d m a n u fa c tu re rs , p ro c e s s o r s , a n d p r o d u c e rs , p e rso n a l g oods. N e v e r th e le s s , d is t r i b u t o r s , a s w e ll in g e n io u s s y s t e m s o f t r a d in g h a v e b e e n d e v is e d to w h o a ll b e n e f it f r o m t h e in c r e a s e d f o o d d e m a n d , a v o id t h e r e s t r ic t io n s . If a f a m il y w is h e s to s e c u r e th e c o s t - b e n e f it r a t io b e c o m e s e v e n m o r e f a v o r a b l e . FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA 91 E n e rg y a n d th e E co n o m y : A V ie w fro m th e S o u th e a s t by Brian D. Dittenhafer M e d i a r e p o r t s o f a n e n e r g y c r i s is h a v e , f o r t h e f ir s t t i m e , m a d e m a n y p e o p le a w a r e o f e n e r g y 's im p o r t a n c e to t h e ir li v e s . E n e r g y c o n s u m p t io n is h ig h l y c o r r e la t e d w it h e c o n o m ic g r o w t h , a n d , in d e e d , e n e r g y c o n s u m p t io n s t a t is t ic s h a v e o f t e n b e e n u s e d a s r o u g h in d e x e s o f in d u s t r ia l d e v e lo p m e n t . T h e r e f o r e , if t h e S o u t h e a s t 1 is to c o n t in u e t h e r a p id g r o w t h c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f t h is r e g io n f o r s e v e r a l d e c a d e s , it m u s t a s s u r e it s e lf o f a d e q u a t e e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s . T h i s a r t i c le a n s w e r s t w o b a s ic q u e s t i o n s : F ir s t , w h a t a r e t h e S o u t h e a s t 's e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s a n d , s e c o n d , w h a t im m e d ia t e im p a c t w i l l t h e " e n e r g y c r i s i s " h a v e o n t h e S o u th e a st? E n e rg y P r o d u c t io n in th e S o u th e a st In e a r l y 1 9 7 2 , S ix t h D i s t r i c t s t a t e s s u p p li e d n e a r ly 4 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e n a t u r a l g a s , 3 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e c r u d e o i l , a n d 4 p e r c e n t o f t h e c o a l p r o d u c e d in t h e U n it e d S t a t e s . T h e y c o n t a in e d 2 9 p e r c e n t o f t h e n a t io n 's n a t u r a l g a s r e s e r v e s , 1 6 p e r c e n t o f its c r u d e o i l , a n d 2 .5 p e r c e n t o f c o a l . In a d d i t io n to p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c it y a n d r e s e r v e s , D i s t r i c t s t a t e s c o n t a in a la r g e a n d g r o w in g s h a r e o f U . S . c r u d e o i l r e f in in g c a p a b i l i t y . T h is s h a r e h a d g r o w n f r o m 9 p e r c e n t in 1 9 6 0 to 1 9 p e r c e n t in 1 9 7 2 , a n d in t h e la s t t w o y e a r s , r e f in in g c a p a c it y in t h e S o u t h e a s t ju m p e d b y 2 6 p e r c e n t . D u r in g t h e s a m e t w o y e a r s , t h e n a t io n 's r e f in in g a b il it y in c r e a s e d b y o n ly 1 0 p e r c e n t , s o t h e r e g io n 's im p o r t a n c e in t h is in d u s t r y is s t i ll g r o w in g . L o u is ia n a is c u r r e n t l y m a k in g a s t r o n g b id to b e c o m e t h e s it e o f o n e o f t h e n e w " s u p e r p o r t s " o r d e e p w a t e r f a c i l i t i e s f o r u n l o a d i n g d e e p d r a f t t a n k e r s , a n d i f it is s u c c e s s f u l in g a r n e r in g o n e o f t h e s e s it e s , t h e r e g io n 's r e f in in g c a p a c it y is l i k e l y to g r o w e v e n m o r e r a p id ly in t h e f u t u r e . L o u is ia n a s t a n d s f ir s t in t h e S o u t h e a s t in v a l u e o f m in e r a l f u e l s o u t p u t . O v e r $ 5 b i ll io n w o r t h w a s p r o d u c e d in 1 9 7 1 a n d s e v e r a n c e ta x p a y m e n t s c o n t r i b u t e d m o r e t h a n $ 2 3 5 m il li o n to t h e s t a t e 's t r e a s u r y in f is c a l y e a r 1 9 7 2 . I n c l u d in g F e d e r a l o f f s h o r e le a s e s , t h e s t a t e h a d t h e la r g e s t in c r e a s e in c r u d e p e t r o le u m o u t p u t in t h e n a t io n d u r i n g 1 9 7 1 w it h a g a in o f 4 6 m il li o n b a r r e ls . B u t in 1 9 7 2 , p r o d u c t i o n o f c r u d e p e t r o le u m d e c li n e d s l ig h t l y a s n e w d r i l l i n g in t h e ’ F o r t h e p u r p o s e s o f t h i s a r t i c l e , t h e S o u t h e a s t is s y n o n y m o u s w i t h t h e S i x t h D i s t r i c t s t a t e s ( A l a b a m a , F lo rid a, G e o rg ia , L o u isian a, M ississip p i, a n d T e n n e s s e e ). JUNE 1973, MONTHLY REVIEW Chart I f u e l p r ic e s r is e s h a r p ly a n d m o re in c r e a s e s a re e x p e c t e d . A f t e r a lo n g p e rio d o f p r ic e s t a b ilit y , U .S . W h o le s a le P r ic e s U .S . W h o le s a le P r ic e s Ann. Avg. - 120 100 -8 0 1 '58 I I I I ’61 I ’64 I I I ’67 - 80 - i i i i l i i i i i i I i i i i i 1970 i i i i m I i I i i m i i i i i I i 1972 m o r e p r o d u c t i v e o f f s h o r e a r e a s w a s h a lt e d b y in c r e a s e d b y 3 0 p e r c e n t d u r in g 1 9 7 2 a n d p r o s p e c t s e n v ir o n m e n t a l le g a l a c t i o n . D r i l l i n g le a s e s a le s w e r e a p p e a r g o o d f o r a c o n t in u a t io n o f t h a t t r e n d . r e s u m e d in S e p t e m b e r 1 9 7 2 a n d d r i l l i n g a c t i v it y In F l o r i d a , m in e r a l f u e l s , p r im a r i ly c r u d e in c r e a s e d s i g n if ic a n t l y a s e x p l o r a t i o n o f n e w a r e a s p e t r o le u m , in c r e a s e d 7 5 p e r c e n t in v o l u m e a n d 9 2 b e g a n . In 1 9 7 2 a r e l a t iv e ly s m a ll in c r e a s e in o u t p u t p e r c e n t in v a l u e d u r i n g 1 9 7 1 . V i r t u a l l y a ll t h e (2 .5 p e r c e n t ) c a u s e d L o u is ia n a to p a s s T e x a s a s t h e g r o w t h c a m e f r o m d e v e lo p m e n t o f t h e J a y o il f ie ld n a t io n 's la r g e s t p r o d u c e r o f n a t u r a l g a s . M o s t o f in t h e F l o r id a P a n h a n d le . C r u d e o il in t h is a r e a th is in c r e a s e w a s f r o m n e w o f f s h o r e p r o d u c t i o n . h a s a h ig h s u lp h u r c o n t e n t , a n d f u l l p r o d u c t i o n N a t i o n w id e , M is s is s ip p i r a n k e d n in t h in p e t r o le u m h a d to a w a i t f a c il it i e s to r e m o v e t h e s u lp h u r f r o m a n d t e n t h in n a t u r a l g a s p r o d u c t i o n . F u e ls v a l u e d th e o i l , t h u s " s w e e t e n i n g " t h e c r u d e . C o m p l e t io n a t $ 2 3 6 m il l i o n , p r im a r i ly d e r iv e d f r o m c r u d e o il o f s o m e o f t h e s e p r o c e s s in g p la n t s in t h e s p r in g o f p r o d u c t i o n , c o n t r i b u t e d s i g n if ic a n t l y t o t h e s t a t e 's 1 9 7 2 a l lo w e d a 5 8 - p e r c e n t in c r e a s e in d a il y a v e r a g e e c o n o m y in 1 9 7 1 . D u r in g t h a t y e a r , w a g e s a n d o u t p u t b e t w e e n t h e f ir s t a n d s e c o n d q u a r t e r s o f s a la r ie s t o t a le d $ 4 8 m il l i o n , a n d n e a r ly $ 1 3 m il li o n t h a t y e a r . D u r in g a ll o f 1 9 7 2 , t h e v o l u m e o f c r u d e in s e v e r a n c e t a x e s w e r e p e t r o le u m a n d n a t u r a l g a s li q u i d s p r o d u c e d g r e w p a id to t h e s t a t e 's t r e a s u r y f r o m p e t r o le u m a n d n a t u r a l g a s o u t p u t . N a t u r a l g as b y m o r e t h a n 5 0 0 p e r c e n t a s t h e f a c il it i e s w e r e r a n k e d s e c o n d , a c c o u n t in g f o r 9 .4 p e r c e n t o f th e d e v e lo p e d . t o t a l v a l u e o f m in e r a l s p r o d u c e d in t h e s t a t e . P e t r o le u m p r o d u c t i o n h a s n o t b e e n e x p a n d in g in The S u m m e r o f '7 3 r e c e n t y e a r s a n d , in f a c t , w a s s l ig h t l y l o w e r in t h e T h e im p o r t a n c e o f m in e r a l f u e ls a n d e n e r g y f ir s t q u a r t e r o f 1 9 7 3 t h a n d u r in g t h e s a m e p e r io d p r o d u c t i o n to e c o n o m ic g r o w t h n a t u r a ll y r a is e s in 1 9 7 2 . t h e q u e s t io n o f w h e r e t h e S o u t h e a s t s t a n d s in t h e M in e r a l f u e ls v a l u e d a t m o r e t h a n $ 1 9 0 m il li o n w e r e p r o d u c e d in A la b a m a in 1 9 7 1 . W a g e s a n d e n e r g y c r i s is . S i n c e m in e r a l f u e l m a r k e t s a r e b o t h n a t io n a l a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l , n o a s s e s s m e n t c a n b e s a la r ie s e a r n e d in f u e l o u t p u t w e r e $ 5 7 m i l l i o n , m a d e o f m in e r a l f u e l r e s e r v e s a n d s u p p li e s f o r a lt h o u g h t h is a m o u n t e d to le s s t h a n o n e p e r c e n t o f p a r t ic u la r a r e a s o f t h e c o u n t r y . It is , h o w e v e r , a ll w a g e s p a id in t h e s t a t e d u r in g t h e y e a r . S e v e r a n c e in s t r u c t i v e to lo o k a t t h e n e a r - t e r m n a t io n a l e n e r g y ta x p a y m e n t s , p r im a r i ly f r o m c o a l , t o t a le d $ 2 .8 s it u a t io n in o r d e r to e v a l u a t e t h e S o u t h e a s t 's o v e r a ll m il li o n in 1 9 7 2 . T h e m o s t im p o r t a n t m in e r a l p o s it io n v is - a - v is t o t a l e n e r g y s u p p lie s . p r o d u c e d in t h e s t a t e , b i t u m in o u s c o a l , in c r e a s e d o u tp u t 7 1/ 2 p e r c e n t d u rin g 1971. A la b a m a 's P e t r o le u m is t h e m o s t im p o r t a n t s in g le s o u r c e o f e n e r g y in t h e U n it e d S t a t e s , a c c o u n t in g f o r m o r e n a t u r a l g a s a n d p e t r o le u m p r o d u c t i o n is c u r r e n t ly th a n 4 0 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l c o n s u m p t io n in 1 9 7 2 . T h e s m a l l, b u t a r e a s b o r d e r in g b o t h F l o r i d a a n d la r g e s t p e r c e n t a g e is r e f in e d in t o g a s o lin e f o r m o t o r M is s is s ip p i h o ld p r o m is e . P e t r o le u m o u t p u t fu e l a n d a t t h e c lo s e o f t h e f ir s t q u a r t e r o f 1 9 7 3 , FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA 93 Chart II p e r c e n t h ig h e r t h a n is n e c e s s a r y to m e e t e x p e c t e d S o u t h e a s t e r n C r u d e O il P r o d u c t io n M ix e d P a tte rn s p e a k d e m a n d t h is s u m m e r . T h i s d o e s n o t m e a n a b r e a k d o w n in t h e s y s t e m is im p o s s i b l e , h o w e v e r , s i n c e r e s e r v e s c a n b e q u i c k l y d e p le t e d b y u n s c h e d u l e d m a i n t e n a n c e o f a n y o f s e v e r a l la r g e g e n e r a t o r s . F u r t h e r , t h is r e s e r v e is l o w e r in t h e e a s t e r n p a r t o f t h e a r e a , w it h t h e in d ic a t e d r e s e r v e f o r T e n n e s s e e , F l o r i d a , G e o r g i a , a n d A la b a m a r a n g in g f r o m 1 3 .5 p e r c e n t to 1 8 p e r c e n t . F o r e c a s t s o f s p a r e c a p a c it y a s s u m e t h a t f u e l s w i l l b e a v a il a b l e to d r iv e t h e g e n e r a t o r s a n d t h a t n o w id e s p r e a d p o w e r o r e n e rg y e m e r g e n c y w ill ta k e p la c e . If s u c h a n e m e r g e n c y d id o c c u r , t h e S o u t h e a s t w o u l d b e e x p e c t e d to s h a r e a n y e x t r a c a p a c it y w i t h o t h e r p a rts o f th e c o u n t r y ; t h e r e fo r e , n o p a rt o f th e n a t io n w o u l d b e c o m p l e t e l y im m u n e f r o m t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f a w id e s p r e a d e l e c t r i c a l p o w e r f a il u r e . T h e p o w e r c o m p a n i e s o f t h e S o u t h e a s t a r e a ls o p l a n n i n g f o r t h e r e g io n 's f u t u r e g r o w t h . D u r in g t h e n e x t t h r e e y e a r s , e l e c t r i c c o m p a n i e s s e r v in g t h e a r e a p la n to a d d g e n e r a t in g a b i l i t y e q u a l t o 6 0 p e r c e n t o f p e a k c a p a c it y in 1 9 7 0 . C a p i t a l R e q u ir e m e n t s a r e 1970 1972 La rg e It is a lo n g j u m p f r o m p l a n n i n g f o r f u t u r e p o w e r r e q u i r e m e n t s a n d a c t u a ll y b u il d in g t h a t c a p a c it y . E v e r y p h a s e o f e n e r g y p r o d u c t i o n r e q u i r e s la r g e g a s o lin e r e s e r v e s w e r e n e a r ly 11 p e r c e n t b e l o w t h e ir a m o u n t s o f c a p i t a l , a n d p r o v i d i n g t h a t c a p it a l m a y y e a r - a g o l e v e ls . G a s o li n e c o n s u m p t io n , m e a n w h i le , n o t b e a s e a s y d u r i n g t h e n e x t d e c a d e a s in t h e h a d in c r e a s e d 7 p e r c e n t , t h e la r g e s t a n n u a l p a s t . T h e p r e c is e a m o u n t o f c a p it a l n e c e s s a r y to in c r e a s e e v e r r e c o r d e d . In s h o r t , t h e d e m a n d f o r m e e t r e g io n a l e n e r g y n e e d s d u r i n g t h e n e x t te n g a s o lin e h a s o u t r u n t h e s u p p ly . T h e im m e d ia t e y e a r s w i l l n a t u r a ll y d e p e n d u p o n h o w f u e l w i l l b e r e a s o n f o r t h is is in t h e r e f in in g p r o c e s s it s e lf a n d p r o d u c e d a n d c o n v e r t e d to its f in a l f o r m , b u t n o in t h e f e a r s o f a c o ld s n a p la t e la s t w i n t e r . m a t t e r w h a t t h e a s s u m p t i o n s , t h e a m o u n t o f c a p it a l W i t h i n li m it s , r e f in e r i e s c a n o b t a in d if f e r e n t r e q u ir e d is e x t r e m e ly la r g e . N a t i o n a ll y , e s t im a t e s p r o p o r t io n s o f g a s o lin e a n d d is t i ll a t e f u e l o i ls f r o m o f t o t a l c a p it a l n e e d e d b e t w e e n n o w a n d 1 9 8 5 to t h e s a m e b a r r e l o f c r u d e p e t r o le u m . I f m o r e d e v e lo p , p r o c e s s , a n d p r o v i d e p r im a r y d is t r i b u t io n g a s o lin e is p r o d u c e d , le s s f u e l o il is o b t a in e d . T h e o f f u e l s c l u s t e r a r o u n d t h e $ 3 0 0 - b il li o n m a r k , a n d s p e c t e r o f a h e a t in g o il s h o r t a g e in t h e la t e w i n t e r c a p it a l n e e d s f o r e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t io n a n d o f 1 9 7 2 - 7 3 c a u s e d r e f in e r i e s to p r o d u c e a h ig h e r d is t r i b u t io n a p p r o a c h $ 2 0 0 b i l l i o n . T h u s , t o t a l p r o p o r t io n o f f u e l o il t h a n n o r m a l. D u r in g t h is e s t im a t e s r a n g e f r o m $ 4 0 0 to $ 5 0 0 b i l l i o n , m o r e t i m e , m o t o r g a s o lin e r e s e r v e s w o u ld n o r m a l ly h a v e t h a n d o u b le t h e c a p it a l e x p e n d i t u r e s o f t h e la s t b e e n b u il t u p s o t h a t t h e p e a k d e m a n d s o f th e 1 3 y e a r s . ( A l l e s t im a t e s a r e in 1 9 7 0 c o n s t a n t s u m m e r d r iv in g m o n t h s c o u ld b e m e t . In e a r l y 1 9 7 3 d o ll a r s .) t h is d id n o t o c c u r , s o t h e h ig h c o n s u m p t io n s e a s o n If t h e e n e r g y in d u s t r ie s a r e to p r o v i d e t h e b e g in s w it h in c r e a s in g r a t e s o f u s a g e a n d l o w e r f a c i l i t i e s n e c e s s a r y to m e e t t h e e c o n o m y ' s n e e d s , r e s e r v e s t h a n w e r e e v i d e n t in 1 9 7 2 . T h u s , c h a n c e s t h e y m u s t r e a l iz e a r e t u r n o n in v e s t m e n t s u f f i c i e n t a r e v e r y g o o d t h a t m o r e g a s o lin e s h o r t a g e s w i l l to c o m p e t e s u c c e s s f u l ly f o r f u n d s in c a p it a l m a r k e t s . o c c u r t h is s u m m e r . W h a t A b o u t E le c t r ic R e c e n t r a t e s o f r e t u r n to t h e s e c o m p a n i e s h a v e b e e n P o w e r? b e l o w t h e a v e r a g e f o r a ll m a n u f a c t u r in g in d u s t r ie s d e s p it e t h e s t e a d il y r is in g p r ic e s o f e n e r g y p r o d u c t s . W h i l e f e a r s o f b o t t le n e c k s in p o w e r s u p p ly a r e v e r y P a r t o f t h e r e a s o n f o r t h is p a r a d o x h a s b e e n t h e r e a l in s o m e p a r t s o f t h e c o u n t r y , t h e p r o s p e c t o f n e e d to m a k e c a p it a l e x p e n d i t u r e s w h i c h a r e n o t s u c h b o t t le n e c k s in t h e S o u t h e a s t is r e m o t e in t h e p r o d u c t iv e o f c u r r e n t in c o m e , s u c h as th o s e fo r im m e d ia t e f u t u r e . P e a k e l e c t r i c i t y d e m a n d in t h is p o ll u t i o n c o n t r o l . a re a o c c u r s d u r in g th e s u m m e r w h e n a ir c o n d it io n in g d r a w s h e a v il y o n t h e g e n e r a t in g s y s t e m . P r ic e s — N o w h e re To Go But Up A c c o r d in g to t h e F e d e r a l P o w e r C o m m is s i o n , t h e P r ic e s o f a ll f u e l s h a v e b e e n in c r e a s in g r a p id ly a n d S o u t h e a s t w i l l h a v e a g e n e r a t in g c a p a c it y 1 8 .2 w it h n e w r e g u la t io n s o n n a t u r a l g a s a l l o w i n g f u r t h e r 94 for FRASER Digitized JUNE 1973, MONTHLY REVIEW in c r e a s e s , p r ic e s a r e l i k e l y to c o n t in u e to r is e . T h e h ig h e r m a r k e t p r ic e s s h o u ld a p p r o x i m a t e m o r e m o s t p r o m is in g a r e a s f o r p r o d u c t i o n o f d o m e s t ic c l o s e ly e n e r g y 's t r u e c o s t to s o c ie t y . p e t r o le u m a r e e it h e r in v e r y d e e p f o r m a t i o n s o n s h o r e o r in o f f s h o r e lo c a t io n s . In e it h e r c a s e , r e c o v e r y c o s t s a r e h ig h , a n d n o re a l h o p e o f lo w e r c o s t s o u r c e s o f d o m e s t ic p e t r o le u m e n e r g y is c u r r e n t l y f o r e s e e n b y e x p e r t s . In t h e p a s t , f u e l p r ic e s h a v e b e e n h e ld d o w n b y a c o m b in a t io n o f F e d e r a l r e g u la t io n , lo w - c o s t s t r ip - m in e d c o a l , a n d lo w - p r i c e o il im p o r t s . F o r o n e re a s o n o r a n o t h e r , a ll t h e s e in f lu e n c e s a r e n o w d is a p p e a r in g . N e w r e g u la t io n s w i l l p e r m it t h e p r ic e o f n a t u r a l g a s to T h e w o r k in g s o f t h e m a r k e t a r e il lu s t r a t e d b y t h e c a s e o f n a t u r a l g a s . T h e F e d e r a l P o w e r C o m m is s i o n h a s m a d e v a r io u s m o v e s s i n c e 1 9 7 1 w h ic h h a v e c a u s e d a n in c r e a s e in n a t u r a l g a s p r ic e s . T h e s e m o v e s h a v e s t im u la t e d e x p l o r a t i o n a c t i v it y , a n d d u r in g 1 9 7 2 , e x p l o r a t o r y d r i l l i n g s u r p a s s e d t h e 1 9 6 9 r e c o r d . T h e in d u s t r y 's r a p id r e s p o n s e to t h e p r ic e in c e n t iv e s h o u ld le a d to in c r e a s e d n a t u r a l g a s s u p p li e s in t h e f u t u r e , a n d t h e f u e l 's h ig h e r p r ic e w ill e n c o u ra g e co n su m e rs to e c o n o m iz e u s e , t h e r e b y s l o w in g g r o w t h in its in d e m a n d . r is e r a p id ly . O v e r c a p a c i t y in t h e c o a l in d u s t r y h a s b e e n e l i m in a t e d , a n d p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s h a v e b e e n W hen is a " C r i s i s " N o t a C r is i s ? in c r e a s e d b y n e w s t r ip m in in g r e g u la t io n s a n d T h u s , t h e e n e r g y " c r i s i s , " w h i c h h a s r e c e i v e d so s a f e t y s t a n d a r d s . F i n a ll y , t h e c a r t e l f o r m e d b y t h e m u c h a t t e n t io n d u r in g r e c e n t m o n t h s , is n o t a c r is is O r g a n i z a t io n o f P e t r o le u m E x p o r t in g C o u n t r i e s h a s in t h e t r u e s e n s e o f t h e w o r d . T h e p r e s e n t " c r i s i s " r a is e d t h e p r ic e o f f o r e ig n c r u d e o i l . T h u s , t h e s e w a s n e it h e r s u d d e n n o r u n p r e d i c t a b l e , a n d th e lo w - p r i c e d e n e r g y s o u r c e s a r e r a p id ly d is a p p e a r in g , s o lu t io n to o u r e n e r g y p r o b le m s w i l l n o t b e e a s y o r a n d t h e r e s e e m s li t t l e d o u b t t h a t e n e r g y w i l l f a s t. E n e r g y s u p p lie s a r e n o t s o lo w in t h e U n it e d b e c o m e s u b s t a n t i a ll y m o r e e x p e n s iv e d u r in g th e S ta te s t h a t a n y w id e s p r e a d , s e r io u s e m e r g e n c y is n ext d ecad e. I f t h e c u r r e n t t r e n d c o n t in u e s a n d m a j o r p r ic e li k e l y to d e v e lo p in t h e n e a r f u t u r e . T h e e n e r g y p in c h h a s c a u s e d s e v e r e i n c o n v e n ie n c e to s o m e a n d in c r e a s e s d o o c c u r in t h e n e x t d e c a d e , it w i l l b e a w i l l li k e l y a f f e c t m o r e , b u t t h is is n o t o f w id e s p r e a d m a j o r c h a n g e f r o m t h e p a s t 2 5 y e a r s o f r e l a t iv e ly c o n c e r n to t h e g e n e r a l p u b l ic . H o w e v e r , c u r r e n t s t a b le e n e r g y p r ic e s . W h i l e u n w e l c o m e to t h e s h o r t a g e s d o p o in t o u t t h e n e e d f o r m o r e e f f e c t i v e c o n s u m e r , a r is e in e n e r g y p r ic e s , w h i c h m o s t o b e n e r g y u s a g e in t h e U n it e d S t a t e s . s e r v e r s s e e a s i n e v i t a b l e , w i l l h e lp a l le v i a t e s h o r t a g e s in t w o w a y s . H i g h e r p r ic e s f o r f u e ls w i l l s l o w g r o w t h T h e e n e r g y m e s s a g e s e n t to C o n g r e s s b y th e P r e s id e n t in e a r l y A p r i l e m p h a s i z e s t h e n e e d to s e e k in d e m a n d b y e n c o u r a g in g m o r e e f f i c i e n t u s e o f lo n g - t e r m s o l u t i o n s to t h e e n e r g y p r o b le m s w e e n e r g y , w h i l e h ig h e r p r ic e s s p u r e n e r g y s u p p ly . n o w f a c e . W e a r e l i k e l y to h a v e to li v e w it h a n R e g u la t io n s p r o t e c t in g t h e e n v ir o n m e n t w i l l f u r t h e r e n e r g y " c r i s i s " f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s u n t il p r o p o s e d r a is e t h e c o s t o f p r o d u c in g e n e r g y a n d t h e r e s u lt a n t a c t io n s c a n B an k A n n o u n c e m e n ts b e c o m e e f f e c t i v e .® M a y 14 , 1973 FIRST NATCHEZ BANK N a tc h e z , M ississip p i M a y 9 , 1973 FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF ENGLEWOOD E n g le w o o d , Florida O p e n e d fo r b u sin e ss . O f fic e r s : R. Earl W a rre n , c h a irm a n ; J. D . T a te , p re s id e n t; N. D o u g la s W e b b , e x e c u tiv e v ic e p re s id e n t; Jo h n W . H in c k , c a sh ie r. C a p ita l, $ 1 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 ; su rp lu s an d o th e r fu n d s , $ 5 0 0 ,0 0 0 . O p e n e d fo r b u sin e ss as a p a r-re m ittin g n o n m e m b e r. O f fic e r s : Ja c k D . H ill, p re s id e n t; D o n a ld Estes, v ic e p re sid e n t an d c a sh ie r. C a p ita l, $ 5 0 0 ,0 0 0 ; su rp lu s an d o th e r fu n d s , $ 5 0 0 ,0 0 0 . M a y 1 8 , 1973 M a y 9 , 1973 FIRST FINANCIAL NATIONAL BANK OF TAMPA UNIVERSITY ATLANTIC BANK T a m p a , Florida Ja ckso n ville, Florida O p e n e d fo r b u sin e ss. O f fic e r s : A n d e rs L. E k m a n , c h a irm a n ; D a v id C . M a rs h a ll, p re s id e n t; J. D o u g la s S e y m o u r, J r ., v ic e p re sid e n t an d c a s h ie r; M rs. L u cy S. D u rh a m , assista n t v ic e p re s id e n t; M rs. B arb ara N. H o llif ie ld , a ssistan t c a sh ie r. C a p ita l, $ 4 0 0 ,0 0 0 ; su rp lu s an d o th e r fu n d s , $ 6 0 0 ,0 0 0 . O p e n e d fo r b u sin e ss as a p a r-re m ittin g n o n m e m b e r. O f fic e r s : T . E. D o ss , Jr., c h a irm a n ; L. D . A lv a re z , p re s id e n t; J. T . K in g , v ic e p re s id e n t; L. R. S h u g a rts, c a s h ie r. C a p ita l, $ 3 0 0 ,0 0 0 ; s u rp lu s an d o th e r fu n d s , $ 3 0 0 ,0 0 0 . FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA 95 BANKING STATISTICS Billion $ — 34 C R E D IT * D E P O S IT S * •3 6 -3 0 ■32 -2 6 -2 8 A/ -2 0 N et D em an d -14 T im e -10 -1 6 O th e r S e c u r it ie s S a v in g s U .S . G o v’t. S e c u r it ie s I II I II I III II I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I J J DJ J 1972 DJ 1973 J IIIIIII I II II II IIII I J 1974 J 1972 LATEST MONTH PLOTTED: APRIL DJ J I I I III I DJ 1973 J 1974 ‘ F i g u r e s a r e fo r th e la st W e d n e s d a y ot e a c h m o n th . ‘ D a ily a v e r a g e fig u r e s . SIXTH DISTRICT BANKING NOTES Im p a c t o f S t r o n g L o a n D e m a n d s LOANS AND DEPOSITS D ec. = Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. 100 M il. $ Apr. Note: Figures cover all member banks and, except for large C. D.'s, are seasonally adjusted. 96 for FRASER Digitized JUNE 1973, MONTHLY REVIEW D u r in g th e e a s t 's f ir s t f o u r b o o m in g im p a c t on m o n th s e c o n o m ic D is t r ic t of 1973, e x p a n s io n m em ber th e had b anks. In S o u th s a m a jo r th a t tim e , le n g t h of t im e , banks m it t in g m a n y b u s in e s s f ir m s a n d c o n s u m e r s to c a r r y th o u g h out s o u rc e s th a n s p e n d in g p la n s . B anks, m e a n w h i le , w e r e c o m p e ll e d to c o m p e t e a g g r e s s iv e ly f o r m o n e y m a rk e t C D 's and to r e ly m o re h e a v il y on o th e r b o r r o w e d f u n d s a s t h e p r e v io u s l y s t r o n g g r o w t h dem and d e p o s it s d e p o s it s s l o w e d The and p re ssu re and s a v in g s s t r a in e d le n d in g ra te la r g e bank d e v e lo p m e n t s le n d in g le d to ra t e s . A lt h o u g h I n t e r e s t a n d D i v id e n d s h a s c o n r a te s have s in c e b u s in e s s la t e 1 9 7 2 , th e c u sto m e rs s e r ie s o f f iv e s t e p s f r o m p r im e ad vanced 6 p e r c e n t in in la t e 1 9 7 2 a to r e lie d a g a in p e rso n a l is apt to re v e rse it s e lf m o re th e y have la s t y e a r . in c o m e dem and h e a v il y had In and to s p it e and t im e tu rn d e p o s it s , to d if f e r e n t o f stro n g u n u s u a ll y r e f u n d s , c o n s u m e r t im e d e p o s it g r o w t h , on la r g e s a v in g s g a in s in F e d e ra l d e p o s it ta x g a in s h a v e f a ll e n b e l o w la s t y e a r 's g a in s . B a n k s h a v e b e e n a b le to o ffs e t s a v in g s o f th e se on t h e C o m m it t e e o n fo r t im e s h a r p ly . c o m b in a t io n u p w a rd co n su m er in tre n d A s a r e s u lt o f s lu g g is h t h e s e b a n k s e x t e n d e d $ 2 .2 b i ll io n in lo a n s , t h u s p e r d e s ir e d t h is so o n . by y ie l d i n g an u nu sual a t t r a c t in g w eakn ess in lo n g e r - m a t u r it y c o n s u m e r t im e d e p o s it s . p assb o o k and In h ig h e r - t o t a l, t h o u g h , g a in s in c o n s u m e r in t e r e s t - b e a r in g a c c o u n t s d u r in g t h e f ir s t f o u r m o n t h s h a v e f a ll e n b e lo w th o s e e x p e rie n c e d Becau se of re d u c e d a b o u t 25 p e rc e n t la s t y e a r . d e p o s it g a in s fro m m o re n o r m a l s o u r c e s , b a n k s t u r n e d in c r e a s in g l y to is s u in g 7 1/ 4 p e r c e n t in la t e M a y . R a t e s to s m a l le r b u s in e s s e s la r g e - d e n o m in a t io n m oved f ir m s a n d s t a t e a n d lo c a l g o v e r n m e n t s . T h r o u g h t h e up co n su m er by le s s e r and re a l a m o u n ts , e sta te w h ile m o rtg a g e r a te s lo a n s on have r e m a in e d r e l a t iv e ly s t a b le . Bank lo a n s re c e d e d u r in g th e f ir s t C D 's to f ir s t f o u r m o n t h s o f t h is y e a r , a c t u a l C D aged n o r m a l ly n e g o t ia b le n e a r ly $ 1 4 7 m il li o n e a c h b u s in e s s g a in s a v e r m o n t h , r e p r e s e n t in g a s u b s t a n t ia l in c r e a s e o v e r t h e s a m e p e r io d la s t y e a r m o n t h s o f t h e y e a r . N o t u n t il M a r c h o r A p r i l d o e s w h e n t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y g a in w a s $ 1 7 m il l i o n . S o v o lu m e f a r t h is r e a c h t h e le v e l o f t h e p r e v io u s D e c e m b e r . y e a r, th e se m oney m a rk e t T h is y e a r , h o w e v e r , p r o v e d e x c e p t i o n a l. B a n k lo a n s to ta l a c t u a l l y r o s e in J a n u a r y a n d F e b r u a r y a s t h e v o l u m e s t r e n g t h is f u r t h e r u n d e r s c o r e d o f n e w t a k e d o w n s e x c e e d e d v o l u m e b e in g p a id o f f . s t r o n g g a in o f $ 1 9 3 m il li o n . Th u s, lo a n s th e a fte r ro s e f ir s t seaso n al an a d ju s t m e n t , u n p re c e d e n te d fo u r m o n th s of 1 1 .5 D is t ric t p e rce n t 1973— a sh a rp bank d u r in g c o n tra s t of $588 U n t il m il l i o n , m id - M a y , c o n s t r a in e d fro m m o n th s, a lm o s t 80 m a tu re d in th a n fu rth e r c o n tra st, th e c u rre n t advance g r e a t ly e x c e e d s 1 9 7 2 's r e c o r d 7 .7 p e r c e n t . W h i l e th e stro n g e c o n o m ic e x p a n s io n w as r e s p o n s ib le fo r m u c h o f t h e in c r e a s e d b o r r o w i n g , b a n k lo a n s w e r e in e x p e n s iv e w h e n c o m p a re d to a l t e r n a t iv e so u rc e s o f c r e d it s u c h a s c o m m e r c i a l p a p e r . The s tro n g e st D is t r ic t 's c re a s e d lo a n la r g e s t t h e ir dem ands b anks, b o r ro w in g $520 have C D 's , fro m Banks b u s in e s s m illio n , at th e f ir m s in a 1 4 .8 - p e r m il li o n o n ly $229 ra te c e i lin g s v e ry e ffe c tiv e ly m any la r g e th re e of new C D 's m o n th s. u p w a rd on is s u e d In te re s t ra te s s h o r te r - m a tu r ity 5 V 2 p e r c e n t a t t h e f ir s t o f t h e y e a r to have g r e a t ly in c r e a s e d t h e ir u se of b o r m il li o n at th a t b e in g n e t s e lle r s o f a b o u t $ 1 2 0 in F e d e r a l f u n d s d u r in g D e c e m b e r to a n e t p u r c h a s in g p o s it io n o f a lm o s t $ 5 5 0 m il li o n c o u n te d ro se b y A p r i l ' s u n u s u a ll y is s u in g p e rce n t s t e a d il y b a n k s s h if t e d f r o m g a in w a s in e a r l y 1 9 6 5 w h e n le n d in g in c r e a s e d 1 2 .4 lo a n s la r g e r b a n k s , p a r t ic u la r ly in A t la n t a , in A p r i l . have ac f o r o v e r f o u r - f i f t h s o f t h e r is e in n e t p u r c h a s e s o f F e d e r a l f u n d s . A s b a n k s a r e r e ly in g m o r e t im e . In e a r l i e r y e a r s , b u s in e s s lo a n s h a v e a d v a n c e d o n t h e s e o v e r n i g h t r e s e r v e s , r a te s h a v e e x c e e d e d an p e r c e n t in M a y , u p f r o m a ve ra g e of o n ly 3 .6 p e rce n t in th e f ir s t m o n t h s o f t h e y e a r . A 2 3 - p e r c e n t in c r e a s e n ess te rm lo a n s a c c o u n te d th e t o t a l b u s in e s s lo a n to t h e p r o p o s it io n n e s s lo a n g a in w a s fo u r in b u s i f o r a lm o s t o n e - h a l f o f in c r e a s e and le n d s s u p p o r t th e y e a r . D i s c o u n t a c t i v it y a ls o a d v a n c e d in r e c e n t m o n t h s . B o r r o w in g s a ve ra g e d $56 m il li o n in Ja n u a ry w hen D i s t r i c t 's b u s i a b o u t te n b a n k s w e r e b o r r o w i n g a t a n y o n e t im e . In n o t a s u b s t it u t e f o r b o r r o w in g A p r il, over 30 banks b o r r o w i n g s to $ 1 3 0 B a s e d u p o n d e v e lo p m e n t s a t s o m e o f t h e D i s t r i c t 's in c r e a s e d th e m illio n , a n d M a y , r e q u e s t s f o r $ 2 4 0 m il li o n d a il y le v e l so m e d a y s in w e re b e in g m et by t h is B a n k . T h e b ig g e r D i s t r i c t b a n k s a c c o u n t e d le n d in g a r e a s . C o n s u m e r , re a l e s t a t e m o r t g a g e , a n d a b o u t o n e - h a lf o f th e o t h e r t y p e s o f b a n k lo a n s p o s t e d s t r o n g g a in s . s tro n g show n p o s it s so u rc e s g ro w th s lo w e d . D em and a s m a ll d e c l i n e , a n d have been th e fro m o n ly p r e v io u s l y d e p o s it s have U . S. G o v e rn m e n t d e re a l so u rc e of dem and d e p o s it s t r e n g t h . S i n c e t h e T r e a s u r y d o e s n o t g e n e r a l ly le a v e its d e p o s it s w it h FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA th e banks fo r in c r e a s e d fo r v o l u m e , a lt h o u g h a s u b s t a n t i a ll y la r g e r n u m b e r o f s m a ll- a n d m e d iu m - W h i l e b a n k s w e r e b e in g c a l le d o n to m e e t t h e s e d e p o s it of on la r g e r b a n k s , d e m a n d w a s a ls o q u i t e s t r o n g in o t h e r re q u e sts , 8 5 V 2 p e r c e n t a t t h e f ir s t o f th a t m o s t o f th e in t h e c o m m e r c i a l p a p e r m a r k e t . lo a n a th e a b o u t 7 V 4 p e r c e n t in la t e M a y . The but le s s m oved c e n t g a in t h r o u g h A p r i l . T h e p r e v io u s s t r o n g e s t lo a n p e rc e n t, up r o w e d r e s e r v e s d u r in g t h e f ir s t p a r t o f 1 9 7 3 . D i s t r i c t d e v e lo p e d w h e re a re g a in , a n d C D ' s w it h m a t u r it ie s o f m o r e t h a n 8 9 d a y s . In r e c e n t by of C D 's 3 4 -p e rc e n t in t e r e s t banks to t h e 4 .3 - p e r c e n t a v e r a g e o f t h e la s t d e c a d e . A n d w ay a any s iz e b a n k s a r e a ls o c o u n t ra te m o v e d b e in g a c c o m m o d a t e d . T h e fro m d is 4 V 2 p e r c e n t a t t h e f ir s t o f t h e y e a r to t h e la t e M a y le v e l o f 6 p e r c e n t . In p a r t , t h e g r e a t e r u s e o f t h e d is c o u n t w i n d o w g r o w in g in t e r e s t ra te d if f e r e n t i a l r e f le c t s t h e b e tw e e n th e d is c o u n t ra te a n d t h e c o s t o f o t h e r b o r r o w e d f u n d s . JO H N M . G O D FREY 97 Sixth D istric t Statistics Seasonally Adjusted (All data are indexes, unless indicated otherwise.) L atest M o n th O ne M onth Ago Two M o n th s Ago O ne Year A go S IX T H D IS T R IC T L a te st M o n t h U n e m p lo y m e n t Rate (P e rc e n t of W o rk F o r c e ) .............. Apr. Avg. W e e kly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) . . . Apr. I N C O M E A N D S P E N D IN G Apr. M ar. , M ar. M ar. 159 173 1P4 179 158 161 169 170 157 168 189 166 145 146 193 143 Apr. Apr. 660.6 569.3 670.0 514.7 715.7 587.1 528.4 439.4 Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. 125 114 112 105 110 110 111 122 106 116 110 120 109 127 139 107 129 134 122 131 135 133 101 131 81 125 114 112 105 no 111 110 122 105 \ 16 110 120 110 127 137 108 129 134 121 131 134 133 102 131 90 124 114 112 104 110 111 110 122 105 116 111 121 111 126 137 109 128 133 121 131 134 133 102 130 92 120 110 110 104 107 110 109 118 105 110 105 114 106 119 125 107 123 128 116 124 128 128 101 125 89 Apr. 3.7 3.6 3.6 4.1 Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Dec. M ar. M ay M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. M ar. 1.6 41.2 227 285 170 188 85 114 291 242 187 284 294 223 164 30 7 34 9 200 191 207 234 285 43 6 771 4 59 1.8 41.0 281 353 211 187 81 116 288 239 186 2 82 287 2 22 162 306 3 48 200 191 206 231 283 4 35 778 453 1.8 41.1 2 49 2 88 211 186 84 116 281 236 185 282 273 220 161 305 3 36 195 186 192 223 283 421 755 433 2.3 41.3 213 271 156 168 91 114 268 231 184 264 287 211 164 294 3 14 190 179 187 202 266 3 96 652 4 25 . Apr. . Apr. 226 214 223 208 2 18 202 173 160 . Apr. . Apr. . Apr. 190 168 232 186 162 228 187 163 2 14 160 143 181 . Apr. M ar. 156 200 156 198 157 195 139 171 . . . . . 114 111 115 114 74 115 112 115 113 79 115 113 115 113 81 111 108 112 112 82 M a n u f a c tu r in g P a y ro lls . . F a rm C a s h R e c e ip ts . . . C r o p s ......................... L iv e s to c k .................. In s ta lm e n t C redit at B a n k s * One M onth Ago Tw o M on th s A go O ne Year A go 4.1 41.5 F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M e m b e r B arik L o a n s ......................... Apr. M e m b e r B a n k D e p o s i t s ......................Apr. B a n k D e b i t s * * .................................Apr. 2 08 182 197 2 04 179 2 04 156 151 Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. 200 180 194 172 157 167 157 147 153 135 145 175 140 119 144 178 99 139 118 143 174 103 138 117 142 172 93 131 113 135 160 97 Apr. Apr. 3.1 41.4 2.9 4 1.9 3.0 41.9 3.6 41.6 D e b it s* Apr. Apr. Apr. 251 21 6 2 59 251 21 2 2 63 24 8 21 3 247 190 178 208 F a rm C a s h R e c e ip ts Apr. Mar. 161 184 158 161 156 171 144 136 Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. 122 109 128 128 84 123 109 1 29 130 92 122 109 1 28 127 95 1 19 108 125 125 86 Apr. Apr. 3.5 41.1 3.5 40.8 3.6 40.2 3.6 41.2 Apr. Apr. Apr. 2 33 179 285 220 169 260 21 0 170 226 167 146 193 Apr. M ar. 145 143 145 146 143 151 136 122 Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. 114 105 115 100 73 114 106 116 103 81 115 105 117 103 87 112 103 113 101 82 Apr. Apr. 5.4 41.8 5.5 42.4 5.3 42.1 5.4 42.5 Apr. Apr. Apr. 197 166 172 196 165 166 191 167 175 154 150 1 49 Apr. Mar. 173 245 172 21 0 175 260 161 162 Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. 122 126 120 114 64 122 127 120 115 88 122 127 119 118 88 118 122 116 117 88 F LOR ID A E M P L O Y M E N T A N D P R O D U C T IO N F o o d ............................. Te x tile s ..................... A ppa re l ..................... Pap e r ......................... P r in t in g a n d P u b lis h in g Lbr., W ood Prods., Furn. & Fix Stone, Clay, a n d G la s s . . . T ra n sp o rta tio n N o n m a n u f a c t u r in g Eq u ip m e n t .............. T ra n sp o rta tio n State a n d Loca l G o ve rn m e n t. Fa rm E m p l o y m e n t ......................... U n e m p lo y m e n t Rate (Percent of W ork Fo rce ) . . . . In s u re d U n e m p lo y m e n t (P e rc e n t of Cov. E m p . ) .............. Avg. W e e kly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) . . C o n s tru c tio n C o n t r a c t s * .............. Electric P ow e r P r o d u c t io n * * C otton C o n s u m p t io n * * . . . . Petrole um P r o d u c t io n * * . . . M a n u f a c tu r in g P ro d u c tio n . . N o n d u ra b le G o o d s .............. F o od ......................... T e x tile s ..................... A ppa re l ...................... Paper ......................... P r in t in g a n d P u b lis h in g C h e m i c a l s .................. D u ra b le G o o d s .................. L u m b e r a n d W ood . . Fu rn itu re a n d Fix tu re s Stone, C lay, a n d G la s s . N o n e le c tric a l M a c h in e ry E lectrica l M a c h in e r y . . . T ra n sp o rta tio n E q u ip m e n t F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G Loans* Bank D e b it s*/ * .................. Apr. M a n u f a c tu rin g P a y ro lls Fa rm C a s h R e c e i p t s ......................... M ar. EM PLOYM ENT N o n m a n u f a c t u rin g U n e m p lo y m e n t Rate (P e rc e n t of W o rk Fo rce) . . Avg. W e e kly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G Bank EM PLOYM ENT M a n u f a c tu rin g U n e m p lo y m e n t Rate (Percent of W o rk F o rce) . . Avg. W e e kly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M e m b e r B a n k L o a n s .............. M e m b e r B a n k D e p o s its . . . B a n k D e b it s * * ...................... LO U ISIA N A IN C O M E M a n u f a c tu rin g P a y ro lls . . . F a rm C a s h R e c e i p t s .............. EM PLO YM ENT N o n fa rm E m p lo y m e n t . . . . M a n u f a c tu rin g .................. N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g .............. C o n s t r u c t i o n .................. Fa rm E m p l o y m e n t .................. U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te (P e rc e n t of W ork Fo rce) . . Avg. W e e k ly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M em ber B ank Loans* . . . . M e m b e r B a n k D e p o s its * . . . B a n k D e b it s * / * * .................. M IS S IS S IP P I IN C O M E M a n u f a c tu r in g P a y ro lls Fa rm C a s h R e c e ip ts EM PLOYM ENT N o n fa rm E m p lo y m e n t M a n u f a c tu r in g . . EM PLO YM ENT 98 for FRASER Digitized Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. JUNE 1973, MONTHLY REVIEW L atest M o n t h U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te (P e rc e n t of W o rk F o r c e ) .............. Apr. A vg. W e e kly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) . . . Apr. One Tw o M on th M o n th s Ago Ago One Year A go 3.7 40.2 3.8 40.9 4.3 41.0 214 182 1 99 175 160 173 TW o M on th s Ago One Ye a r Ago 124 115 129 123 83 124 115 1 29 125 124 115 129 126 98 1 18 2.9 40.8 2.8 2.8 40.6 40.9 213 177 184 2 15 177 186 2 10 EM PLO YM ENT 4.2 40.6 F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M e m b e r B a n k L o a n s * ......................Apr. M e m b e r B a n k D e p o s i t s * .................. Apr. B a n k D e b it s * / * * .............................Apr. One M onth Ago L atest M o n t h 2 12 183 221 2 16 1 84 21 1 . Apr. N o n fa rm E m p l o y m e n t ......................Apr. M a n u f a c tu rin g .............................Apr. . Apr. N o n m a n u f a c t u r i n g ......................... . Apr. C o n s t r u c t i o n .............................Apr. . Apr. F a rm E m p l o y m e n t .............................A . Apr. pr U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te . Apr. (P e rc e n t of W o rk F o r c e ) .............. . Apr. Avg. W e e kly H rs. in M fg. (H rs.) 88 111 12 2 121 92 3.4 4 0.9 TENNESSEE F IN A N C E A N D B A N K IN G M a n u f a c tu r in g P a y r o l l s ..................Apr. F a rm C a s h R e c e i p t s ......................... M ar. 165 175 162 167 161 156 . Apr. . Apr. . Apr. 150 147 *D a ily ave ra g e b a s is *F o r S ix t h D istric t area only; o ther totals fo r entire six sta te s t P re lim in a ry data 168 155 155 181 180 N.A. N o t a v a ila b le Note: Indexes for bank debits, construction contracts, cotton consumption, employment, farm cash receipts, loans, petroleum production, and payrolls: 1987 = 100. All other indexes: 1957-59=100. S o u rc e s : M a n u f a c tu r in g p ro d u ctio n e stim a te d b y t h is B a n k ; non farm , m fg. a n d n o n m fg. emp., m fg. p a y ro lls a n d hou rs, a n d unem p., U.S. Dept, of L a b o r a n d c o o p e ra tin g state a g e n c ie s; cotton c o n su m p t io n , U.S. B u re a u of C e n s u s; c o n stru c tio n c on trac ts, F. W. D o d g e Div., M c G ra w -H ill In fo rm a tio n S y s t e m s Co.; petrol, prod., U .S . Bureau of M in e s; in d u stria l u se of elec. power, Fed. Pow e r C om m .; fa rm c a s h re c e ip ts a n d fa rm em p., U .S.D.A. O th er in d e x e s b a se d on data collected b y t h is B a n k . All in d e x e s ca lc u la te d b y t h is B a n k . 'D a t a b e n c h m a rk e d to J u n e 1971 Re p ort of C o n d itio n Debits to D em and D eposit A ccounts Insured Commercial Banks in the Sixth District (In Thousands of Dollars) P e rc e n t C h a n g e April 1973 Mar. 1973 A pril 197 2 B a rto w -L a ke la n d W in te r H ave n D ay to n a B e a c h Ft. L aude rda leH o lly w o o d . Ft. M y e r s . . G a in e sv ille J a c k s o n v ille M e lb o u rn e T itu sville C oca M ia m i O rla n d o . P e n sa c o la S a ra so ta T a lla h a s se e Ta m pa -St. Pete W. P a lm B e a c h A lb a n y A tla nta A u g u st a . C o lu m b u s M acon Sa van n a h 3,29 3,314 90,8 10 286 ,235 910 ,275 587,971 194,450 3,487,487 96,0 0 9 288,221 90 2 ,314 617 ,626 193 ,139 2 ,686,666 + + 6 80,392 240 ,627 834,661 4 6 0 ,303 149,194 750 ,227 368 ,027 758,571 34 8 ,738 563,095 2 9 3 ,554 1,932,627 321 ,905 254,071 3,346,902 1,826,078 3 05,335 2 3 6 ,238 3,60 1,834 1,515,806 230 ,302 193,492 2,70 5,866 4 3 8 ,144 6,630,616 1,499,657 406 ,899 524 ,844 879 ,637 3.711.563 1,311,732 189,895 16,166,654 503,059 420 ,036 510 ,165 508,790 391,781 6,63 2,476 1,459,406 409 ,336 537,917 852 ,925 3,798,212 1,162,779 187,019 14,612,954 493 ,243 3 8 6 ,289 5 13,985 503 ,555 317,701 4,996,580 1,235,180 354,551 340,541 584 ,763 2,99 5,096 8 9 6 ,686 148,930 9,874,733 398 ,412 3 4 2 ,346 397 ,715 4 1 8 ,260 A le x a n d ria B a to n R o u g e L afayette . . L a k e C h a rle s N e w O rle a n s 232,277 1,096,667 269 ,932 215,871 3,804,267 2 3 5 ,168 1,042,749 2 4 8 ,356 217 ,613 3,72 0,534 181,871 9 8 5 ,664 194,711 182,416 3,15 4,009 B ilo x i-G u lfp o rt Jackson . . . 266,451 1.420.563 257 ,477 1,316,644 183,441 9 8 4 ,978 C h a tta n o o ga K n o x v ille . . N a sh v ille . . OTHER C EN T ER S A n n is to n . . 1,222,049 9 2 5 ,378 3,063,630 1,183,253 860 ,556 3,052,217 882 ,787 718 ,600 2,52 0,684 103,755 87,234 +20 +20 1 + 23 + 13 + 19 + 9 + 28 +30 + 14 + 10 + 23 +23 + 1 6 + 33 + 25 +26 + 23 + + + - 6 + 27 +40 +31 + 24 + 18 +35 5 1 1 5 5 8 7 + 12 - 0 + 3 - 1 - 2 + 3 - 2 + 13 + 2 + 11 + 2 + 9 - 1 + 1 + 38 +33 + 21 + 15 + 54 + 50 + 24 +46 +20 +26 +28 +25 +23 + 11 +46 +47 +22 April 1973 +28 + 64 +26 + 23 + 28 +22 +22 +21 +44 + 17 + 11 + 19 +28 + 11 + 39 + 18 +21 + 9 +25 + 10 +33 + + +45 +44 + 26 3 +21 +21 + 3 + 8 + 0 +38 + 29 + 22 + 16 8 + 28 + 16 + Mar. 1973 April 197 2 M ar. 1973 2 +42 +39 +25 +32 +26 +27 +45 - 8 +41 +32 +27 +32 . . 161,029 76,3 79 157,543 73,1 76 113 ,469 54,849 + + B rad e n to n . . . M o n ro e C o u n ty . . . O c a l a .............. . . St. A u g u st in e St. P e t e rsb u rg . . . Tam pa . . . . 1 89,892 75,5 34 1 98,944 2 7,1 84 1,007,073 1,720,121 185,332 75,2 54 183,384 26,875 966 ,146 1,793,996 150,537 59,285 137,244 29,492 715 ,793 1,430,203 + + + + + - Ath e n s . . . . B ru n s w ic k . . . D alton . . . . Elb erton . . . G a in e s v ille . . . . G riffin . . . . L a G ra n g e . . New nan . . . . R o m e .............. V a ld o s ta . . - 156,366 101,942 184,007 23,3 55 138,641 66,0 48 3 8,6 26 7 1,8 90 134,063 92,313 150,111 91,307 190,275 20,660 129,863 66,2 55 4 1,1 23 67,007 1 33,254 86,006 131,299 73,593 148,285 18,818 54,413 31,0 68 3 7,5 05 113,652 78,666 + + + + + + + 15,649 9,490 74,896 51,921 21,996 35,4 10 14,195 10,827 73,531 52,382 22,623 36,4 42 15,479 7,965 57,533 47,803 14,403 2 9,4 14 +20 - 1 +29 +31 + 13 +52 + 9 117,795 6 9,9 72 111,030 49,9 96 118 ,419 74,628 111,659 5 7,6 16 9 8,9 94 60,2 09 9 5,3 03 44,655 - 1 - 6 - 0 -1 3 + + + + + 17 +23 + 19 + 9 152,228 72,555 35,4 44 116 ,030 5 6,1 14 3 9,2 38 - 2 - 6 + 15 +29 . . 149,154 67,9 37 40,8 04 B risto l . . . . J o h n so n C ity K in g sp o rt . . . 114,173 155,980 2 5 5 ,498 110,281 158,650 294 ,633 115,233 134,552 209,470 + 3 - 2 -1 3 - 1 + 16 . 72,0 76,528 70,1 23,388 5 4,0 98,230 r + 7,724,765 24,7 54,332 21,9 46,982 . 6,76 0,070 . 2,97 3,140 . 7,91 7,239 7,869,432 24,6 69,076 2 0 ,3 29,939 6,61 6,480 2,920,325 7,71 8,136 6,341,802 19,071,l O lr . 14,472,675 5,670,674 2,264,309 6,27 7,669 . . . . . . . . A b b e v ille . B u n k ie . . H am m ond . N e w Iberia P la q u e m in e T h ib o d a u x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1,2 2 2 4 2 0 8 1 4 4 4 12 3 13 7 0 6 7 1 7 + 10 -1 2 + 2 - 1 - 3 3 +20 + 19 +39 +24 +24 +37 -1 0 +34 +17 +17 +22 +22 +21 + 16 +31 +25 +24 +92 + 18 + 17 +52 + 17 + 11 + 1 + 19 +30 + 9 +53 +21 +37 - 1 + 5 + 9 - 1 + 2 8 Year to date 4 m o s. 197 3 April fro m 197 2 1 97 2 April 197 3 Fro m D o th a n S e lm a S T A N D A R D M E T R O P O L IT A N S T A T IS T I C A L A R E A S * * B irm in g h a m G a d sd e n H u n tsv ille M o b ile . . M o n tg o m e ry T u s c a lo o sa P e rc e n t C h a n g e Year to A p ril date 1973 4 m os. Fro m 1973 M ar. April from 1973 1972 1972 +21 +23 H a ttie s b u rg . L aurel . . . . M e rid ia n . . N a tc h e z . . . . P a sc a g o u la M o s s Point V ic k s b u r g . . Y a z o o C ity . D istrict Total . . . . A la b a m a . . F lo rid a . . . . G e o rgia . . . . L o u is ia n a 1 . M is s is s ip p i1 . T e n n e sse e 1 . . . . . 19 16 17 12 +21 + 4 +33 +28 + 3 +22 + 4 + 13 + 18 3 +33 +27 - 2 + 0 + 8 + 2 + 2 + 3 +22 + 19 +26 +37 +25 +3C +52 + 19 +31 +26 +22 +21 ' District portiononly r-Revised F ig u r e s for so m e a re a s d iffe r slig h t ly from p re lim in a ry fig u re s p u b lish e d * * C o n fo r m s to S M A d e fin itio n s a s of D e c e m b e r 31, 1972. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA " B a n k D e b its a n d D e p o sit T u rn o v e r” by B o a rd of G o v e rn o rs of the Fede ral R e se rv e Sy ste m . 99 D istrict B u sin e ss C o n d itio n s The r e g io n 's s t r o n g e c o n o m ic ad vance p aused in la t e s p r in g . C o n s t r u c t i o n c o n t r a c t s d e c l i n e d . T h e l a b o r m a r k e t s o f t e n e d s l i g h t l y , a n d t h e g r o w t h o f b o t h c o n s u m e r s p e n d in g and s e c t o r c o n t in u e d f lo o d s to re c e iv e h ig h p r ic e s a n d in c r e a s in g in c o m e , but bank lo a n s s l o w e d . T h e s e r i o u s ly th re a te n e d fa rm fu tu re p r o d u c t io n . S o ftn e ss a p p e a re d in b o th r e s i d e n t ia l c o n s t r u c t io n r e s i d e n t ia l a n d non a c t i v i t y in A p r i l . T h e v a l u e o f c o n t r a c t a w a r d s f o r r e s id e n c e s w a s a t its lo w e s t d o m e s t ic a ll y p r o d u c e d a u t o s d e c li n e d f r o m pace o f re c e n t m o n th s b u t w e re s t i ll th e h o t above A p r il o f la s t y e a r . le v e l in t e n m o n t h s ; a f t e r a s t r o n g f ir s t q u a r t e r , t h e v a lu e of n o n r e s id e n t i a l D e c e m b e r 's fa r a w a rd s f e ll back le v e l a s la r g e c o n t r a c t s w e r e b e tw e e n . D e p o s it in f lo w s a t t h r if t to la s t fe w and in s t i t u t i o n s Banks a re m a k in g n a t io n C D 's p o s it s t r e n g t h t u t io n s h a v e n o t c u r t a il e d c o n t in u e s t o A fte r o v e r 30 e m p lo y m e n t m o n t h s o f s t e a d y g a in s , n o n f a r m d ip p e d s l ig h t l y in A p r il. A ll D is t ric t s t a t e s , w it h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f r a p id ly g r o w in g F l o r i d a , s h a r e d in t h e s e jo b lo s s e s . T h e u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te in c h e d u p w a rd to 3 .7 p e rc e n t. T h e r e d u c t i o n s . F a c t o r y h o u r s le n g t h e n e d f r o m a lr e a d y h ig h le v e l, a n d m a n u f a c t u r in g an p a y r o ll s a d v a n c e d s t r o n g ly . T h e la t e s t d a t a a ls o r e v e a l a b r o a d e x p a n s io n of b o rro w e d th a n in r a is e d at m any p r e v io u s its la r g e r is e , a lt h o u g h m o n th s. d is c o u n t ra te b an ks. Bank at a m u ch to On M ay 6 p e rc e n t, le n d in g s lo w e r 11, ra te t h is Bank w h ile m o st D i s t r i c t b a n k s a s o f la t e M a y p o s t e d a 7 V 4 - p e r c e n t p r im e r a t e f o r t h e ir la r g e r b u s in e s s c u s t o m e r s . m a n u f a c t u r in g la b o r m a r k e t r e m a in s t ig h t , h o w e v e r , d e s p it e s m a ll jo b u se p r o v id e th e o n ly m a jo r s o u r c e o f d e c o n t in u e d t o s h o w s o m e w e a k n e s s , b u t t h e s e in s t i m o r t g a g e le n d in g . in c r e a s in g f u n d s t o o f f s e t w e a k d e p o s i t g a in s . L a r g e - d e n o m i in o u t p u t b y a lm o s t e v e r y m a j o r m a n u P r ic e s o f f a r m r e f le c t i n g p r o d u c t s r o s e le s s r a p i d l y i n A p r i l , d e c lin e s in m o st liv e s t o c k it e m s . How e v e r , m o s t c r o p p r ic e s in c r e a s e d t h r o u g h e a r l y M a y b e c a u s e o f h e a v y r a in s a n d r e c o r d f lo o d s t h a t h a v e d e la y e d c r o p p la n t in g s a n d m a y h a v e p r e v e n t e d t h e p la n t in g o f m u c h c o t t o n a c r e a g e in t h e M is s is s i p p i f a c t u r in g in d u s t r y . D e l t a . R e f l e c t in g r is in g m o n e y m a r k e t r a t e s , a la r g e G ro w th m e r c ia l o f co n su m er banks down w as lo a n s to g a in s in s lo w e d in s t a l m e n t c r e d it a t c o m s h a r p ly m o st p ro n o u n ce d buy a ll a u to s and c a t e g o r ie s in in o th e r w e re A p r il. T h e s lo w n e t e x t e n s io n s co n su m er s m a l l. U n it of go o ds; s a le s of fa rm c r e d i t a g e n c y r e c e n t ly a n n o u n c e d o n e - fo u rth end of M a rc h p e r c e n t in c r e a s e in A p r il. D is t r ic t exceeded fa rm y e a r-a g o lo a n cash le v e ls th e s e c o n d ra te s s in c e th e re c e ip ts by m o re th ro u g h th a n 13 p e r c e n t e v e n th o u g h F lo r id a e x p e r ie n c e d a d e c lin e . Note: Data on which statements are based have been adjusted whenever possible to eliminate seasonal influences. 100 JUNE 1973, MONTHLY REVIEW
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