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Atlanta, Georgia June A ls o in • 1965 t h is is s u e : TENNESSEE’S BUSINESS: STILL RUNNING AHEAD SIXTH DISTRICT STATISTICS DISTRICT BUSINESS CONDITIONS % setve l&antgf Employment Growth, 1961-64 T h e W h y ’s a n d W h e As the current economic expansion stretches into its fifty-second month, curiosity heightens about how industrial development in the Sixth Federal Reserve District has fared during this period. A satisfactory answer has to be similar to that given by the man who when asked, “How’s your wife?”, quickly replied, “Compared with whom?” Growth in a particular area is devoid of meaning unless it is viewed in comparison with some other area, thus this discussion of the District’s industrial growth will compare progress in this section of the country with that of the nation as a whole. Another pertinent question our friend might have posed when asked about his wife would have been, “Measured in what terms?” Ideally, for our purposes, growth should be measured in a number of different terms —capital investment, production, and employment, to mention only a few. Unfortunately, however, the range of variables for which up-to-date statistics are available is very limited for a less-than-national area. Capital investment figures for any sort of meaningful breakdown have a two-year (or longer) lag and thus are not very useful for measuring changes in a current cyclical movement—even when the movement is a long one such as the current expansion period. Recent production esti mates for mining and manufacturing are available in the Federal Reserve Bulletin but, unfortunately, for the nation only. No breakdown by state or region is available on a frequently recurring basis. This leaves us with employment, for which comparable national and state figures are published on a monthly basis and with a great deal of industrial detail. Although in some instances production in certain industries may be going up while at the same time employment is declining because of changes in productivity, such a divergence generally could be expected to occur at both the regional and national level. Thus, the data would still be valid for comparative purposes. And, in some respects, employment is a more relevant variable since it measures the number of jobs that a region has been able to provide for its resi dents. It is for these reasons that employment growth becomes the means of comparison in this discussion. Although the current expansion, which began early in 1961, is still continuing, the period from 1961 to 1964 was chosen for consideration. This enabled us to use annual averages, thus eliminating the problems of seasonal changes, as well as the possibility that an industry might have been seriously affected by some sort of irregular occurrence, such as a strike or unusual weather in a given month. T h e D is tr ic t L e a d s t h e N a t i o n In terms of overall employment growth, most states of the Sixth Federal Reserve District fared rather well between 1961 and 1964, compared with the nation as a whole, as indicated by Table 1, which is shown on Page 2. Florida’s employment grew by 195,000 workers. This expansion was equivalent to an increase of 13.4 percent and was far above the 5.2-percent change in the nation. Employment growth rates in Georgia, Tennessee, and Louisiana also Table 1 Employment Changes*, 1961-64 1961 1964 Percentage Change (Thousands of Workers) United States** Alabam a Florida Georgia Louisiana Mississippi Tennessee A ll District States 61,145 921 1,455 1,226 934 638 1,176 6,342 64,311 969 1,650 1,333 990 661 1,269 6,872 5.2 5.3 13.4 8.7 6.1 3.6 7.9 8.3 ♦Includes agricultural and nonagricultural employment. ** Includes Alaska and Hawaii. Sources: U. S. Department of Commerce and U. S. Department of Agriculture. exceeded the national average, although their 8.7, 7.9, and 6.1 percentage increases were less spectacular than Florida’s. In Alabama, employment rose 5.3 percent, slightly above the national average, while Mississippi trailed with a rate of increase of 3.6 percent. However, total employment in Mississippi is small relative to the other states and thus did not exert much of an influence on the rate for all District states. Employment in the sixstate area grew by 530,000 jobs, an increase of 8.3 percent over the 1961 level. Thus, employment oppor tunities in the District have grown at a rate significantly above the 5.2-percent national average. While a general overall comparison of growth rates is meaningful, one’s curiosity cannot be fully satisfied unless an attempt is made to isolate the components that helped shape this growth. Did employment in the District grow faster because the area’s industrial structure was more favorable— that is, because the District had a larger share of employment in fast growth industries— or because it was able to attract more than a “fair” share of new in dustries? M o re F a v o r a b le In d u s tr ia l M ix ? — N o ! A region has a better chance of achieving an overall growth rate in excess of the national average if it has an industrial structure that is highly oriented toward fast-growth in dustries. Thus, if these fast-growth industries were already well established at the beginning of an expansion period and accounted for a major portion of total employment, the region would have a head start toward exceeding the national average. To determine if the Sixth District states qualified as such an area, it was first necessary to compute growth rates for individual industrial categories in the U. S. The rapid growth in population and personal income has greatly increased the demand for state and local govern ment services and for services provided by the private sector so that employment in these categories grew by 13.3 and 12.1 percent, respectively. For similar reasons, there have been large employment increases in the transportation equipment industry and in contract construction. The rates of growth for individual industries in the nation are shown in the left-hand column of Table 2. These industries have been classified into two basic cate gories: those that grew faster than the overall national rate of 5.2 percent and those that grew slower. Thus, the table shows that employment in the production of stone, clay, and glass products was just above the average in crease for all categories, while it was slightly below the average for firms manufacturing lumber, wood, and fur niture products. In some industries, such as food process ing, mining, and agriculture, employment actually de clined. These industries, together with their rates of de cline, also are included in the below-average category. Next, the percentage of total employment of each of the industries was computed for both the District and the United States to determine if the District had a higher concentration of the fast-growth industries in 1961. The results, shown in the last two columns of Table 2, indi cate that the District’s industry mix was not as growth oriented as the nation’s. Among the faster growing industries, the District had a significantly larger percentage base in only contract con struction and state and local government. About the same proportions of total employment were found in the manufacture of chemicals and stone, clay, and glass prod ucts, as well as in finance, insurance and real estate, whole sale trade, and retail trade. However, the District had a smaller proportion of all jobs in the service industries, in the production of transportation equipment, machinery Table 2 Components of Total Employment, 1961 Percentage of U. S. Rate of Employment Total Employment District Growth 1961-64 U. S. States Above-Average Growth Industries* State and Local Government . . . Services .................................... Transportation Equipment M fg. . . Contract C o n s tru c tio n ................ Machinery and Electrical Equipment M fg. Primary and Fabricated Metal M fg. Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Wholesale T r a d e ....................... Retail T r a d e ............................. Other Durable M f g ....................... Chemicals M fg ............................. Stone, Clay, and Glass M fg. . . . T o t a l ................................. 13.3 12.1 11.3 10.3 10.7 12.4 2.4 4.6 11.3 11.1 1.1 5.2 9.3 8.8 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.0 5.9 5.8 — 4.7 3.6 4.5 4.9 13.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 65.4 1.0 2.1 4.1 5.0 13.8 0.8 1.6 0.9 58.0 Below-Average Growth Industries* Lumber, Wood, and Furniture M fg. Paper and Allied Products M fg. . . Textiles and Apparel M f g ............. Petroleum, Rubber, and Leather M fg. Printing and P u b li s h i n g ............. Federal G o v e r n m e n t ................ Transportation and Public Utilities Food P r o c e s s i n g ....................... Other Nondurable M f g ................. M ining .................................... A gricu ltu re................................. T o t a l ................................. 5.0 4.8 4.7 3.8 3.8 2.5 1.9 - 2.6 - 3.0 - 5.5 -1 1 .5 — 1.6 1.0 3.5 1.5 1.5 3.7 6.4 2.9 0.1 1.1 11.3 34.6 2.4 1.2 4.6 0.8 0.9 4.2 6.0 2.9 0.9 1.3 16.8 42.0 A ll Industries................................. 5.2 100.0 100.0 ♦Above-average growth industries are those that grew at a faster rate in the United States between 1961 and 1964 than did total employment. Belowaverage growth industries are those that grew slower. •2 • and electrical equipment, primary and fabricated metals, and other durable goods. In the United States, industries with above-average rates of growth accounted for 65 percent of total employ ment in 1961. In the District, this proportion was 58 percent. Thus, instead of a head start, the District actually began the period with a handicap. The most striking difference between the employment mixes of the U. S. and the District occurred in agriculture, which accounted for almost 17 percent of the total jobs in the District but for only 11 percent in the U. S. To some extent, the less favorable growth structure in the District is also reflected by the higher proportion of employment in the relatively slower-growing textile and apparel in dustry, lumber and wood products industry, and in Federal Government employment. In most other slow-growth cate gories, the proportions are either about the same or a slightly higher percentage is recorded by the U. S. The industry mix, moreover, was less favorable for growth in all of the District states except Florida, where over 76 percent of employment was in above-average growth industries. Mississippi’s base was least favorable for growth since almost 55 percent of the state’s employ ment was in the below-average growth categories. About 58 percent of the employment in Georgia and Tennessee was in the faster expanding industries, while these in dustries accounted for 63 and 60 percent, respectively, of employment in Alabama and Louisiana. Thus it appears that the reason employment has grown at a faster rate in the District than in the U. S. in this cur rent period is certainly not because the District began with a higher proportion of employment in those industries that have grown most rapidly. Quite the contrary— the District grew faster despite its industrial mix, not because of it. The answer, therefore, must be found in the District’s ability to attract more new employment opportunities than other areas. If so, a District-U. S. comparison of the average growth rates for individual industries should offer confirmation. M o re C o m p e titiv e ? — Y e s ! Just because an area begins a growth period with an employment composition that is oriented toward the slower growth industries does not mean that it will have a below-average rate of expansion. The area may be more successful in attracting additional employment opportuni ties because of available labor, lower wages, tax induce ments, natural resources, the development of a large con sumer market, and a number of other factors. Such ad vantages could enable the area to achieve above-average rates of growth even in those industries that were classified nationally as slow-growth industries. In addition, the area may show a tendency toward rapid development of the faster growing national industries despite the low propor tion of employment in these industries at the beginning of the expansion period. Both these tendencies seem to have been operative in the District. The District’s more rapid rate of employment expansion in the group of industries with national growth rates below the national average is apparent in Table 3. This table shows the percentage growth in employment from 1961 to 1964 in various industries— grouped into above- and below-national average categories— for the United States and the District. For instance, the textile and apparel industry, which grew at a less-than-5-percent rate from 1961 to 1964 nationally, increased over 26 percent in the District during the same period. While textiles and apparel already was one of the larger manufacturing employment categories in the District in 1961, its rapid growth contributed substantially to the expansion of the District’s employment, while at the same time its na tional performance was classified as “slow growth.” To a lesser extent, the same can be said for most of the other so-called “slow growth” industries. Of those showing posi tive rates of growth, only employment in the production of Table 3 Employment Growth Rates, 1961-64 Percentage Change U . S. D istrict States Above-Average Growth Industries* State and Local Government 13.3 12.1 Services Transportation Equipment M fg. 11.3 Contract Construction 10.3 Machinery and Electrical Equipment M fg. 9.3 Primary and Fabricated Metal M fg. 8.8 Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 7.8 7.6 Wholesale Trade 7.4 Retail Trade 7.0 Other Durable Mfg. Chemicals Mfg. 5.9 Stone, Clay, and Glass M fg. 5.8 Below-Average Growth Industries* Lumber, Wood, and Furniture M fg. Paper and Allied Products Mfg. Textiles and Apparel M fg. Petroleum, Rubber, and Leather M fg. Printing and Publishing Federal Government Transportation and Public Utilities Food Processing Other Nondurable M fg. M ining Agriculture — — — — 5.0 4.8 4.7 3.8 3.8 2.5 1.9 2.6 3.0 5.5 11.5 13.4 16.6 39.0 18.5 66.3 13.0 11.2 9.1 9.8 23.7 11.4 11.6 7.1 2.0 26.2 11.4 8.4 5.6 4.7 3.4 -6 3 .0 - 0.6 - 9.9 *Above-average growth industries are those that grew at a faster rate in the United States between 1961 and 1964 than did total employment. Belowaverage growth industries are those that grew slower. paper and allied products failed to grow at a faster rate in the District than it did nationally. The rest showed significantly faster rates of growth. Moreover, for the industries that showed negative rates of growth— that is, where employment actually fell— the rates of decline in the more important employment cate gories were slower in the District than nationally so that the loss of jobs was not as severe. For instance, the 10percent drop in agricultural employment caused a loss of 106,000 farming jobs. If the national rate of decline in agriculture had applied, the District’s reduction would have been 123,000. Food and beverage processing employment, which also declined nationally, grew about 3 percent in the District. Moreover, employment in mining was just about unchanged in the District, although a 5-percent decline took place nationally. The remaining category, other nondurable goods manufacturing, fell much more in • 3 • the District than in the nation, but since it accounted for such an insignificant amount of employment initially only a relatively small number of jobs were lost. The District also has enjoyed a faster-than-national rate of increase in each of the “above-average” job categories. Some of the more marked differences occurred in the production of transportation equipment, machinery and electrical equipment, and other durable goods— all cate gories in which the U. S. had a higher percentage of em ployment in 1961 than did the District. Does this mean that the District is increasing its share of the “fast growth” industries? Indeed it does! If the distribution of employment in Table 2 were computed for 1964 instead of 1961, it would show that the percentage of District employment in above-average growth industries was nearer the national average than in 1961. The per centage of District employment in the faster growing industries increased from 58.0 percent in 1961 to 61.2 percent in 1964. During the same period, the U. S. figure rose from 65.4 percent to 67.9 percent. Thus, not only is employment in the District growing at a faster rate than in the U. S., but its composition is changing also. Can this pace be maintained? Perhaps, but it will become more and more difficult. As additional industries move into an area, the supply of available labor begins to shrink, other resources become less abundant, wages increase, and tax incentives vanish as other areas also grant concessions. However, just reaching a point where the natural advantages disappear will signify real progress. n . D. O’B annon N o te: Supplementary tables relating to employment changes and composition in each of the Sixth District states are available on request to the Research Department, Fe d eral Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia 30303. Tennessee’s Business: Still Running Ahead The spirit of competition moves our economy. Even our states and localities do not escape it, for the stakes in attracting new sources of employment come high. This lesson is especially clear to states whose economic fortunes are not yet on a par with the national average. To catch up, these states have to grow faster, even faster than the nation. The Volunteer State has tried to do just that. In 1940, Tennessee’s per capita income was not much more than one-half of the national average. By 1950, it had moved up to more than three-fifths and, by 1960, it was close to three-quarters. From 1960 to 1964, Tennessee’s total personal income (according to recently published official U. S. Depart ment of Commerce figures) climbed another 28 percent. The national average rose 22 percent. Tennessee, there fore, was not just sharing in the overall economic expan sion but was doing slightly better. Long-run comparisons, of course, often obscure more recent developments. It is, therefore, important to know whether these trends have continued. On the basis of 1964 figures, the answer is “yes.” Tennessee’s personal income gain of 7 percent nosed out the 6-percent increase in the national average. Since these two figures are not far apart, one might, with little else to go on, pay scant atten tion to this difference. However, that would be shortsighted. Every major source of nonfarm income in 1964 rose faster in Tennessee than in the United States as a whole or equally as fast. Government and construction payrolls in the state scored the highest percentage gains, while a solid increase in factory payrolls was another major factor behind the upswing in income. More recent data reveal that the state’s income gains are continuing. According to estimates of this Bank, the rate of growth of seasonally adjusted personal income received by Tennesseans during the first quarter as a whole was fractionally ahead of that for the nation, although it declined in March. E m p l o y m e n t C h a r ts Ir r e g u la r U p w a r d C o u rse Employment indicators have followed a roughly similar course, but gains have been less dramatic. During 1964, Tennessee’s rate of growth in nonfarm employment did little more than match that of the United States as a whole. And through April 1965, employment showed only a small gain after allowances were made for seasonal changes. Wet, cold weather contributed to a lag in construction em ployment this year, while labor disputes also held down employment increases. The number of jobs this April, however, was 49,000 higher than it was a year ago. More persons— 22,600 to be exact—were holding jobs with state and local governments and with retail stores and other trade concerns than they were last year. Apparel, the leading employer in the manufacturing field, added nearly 5,000 factory workers to its roster, more than any other industry. Jobs in chemicals, the number two manufacturer, also increased. But in textiles and food— two other leading industries— the number of jobs only rose slightly. As one might expect from the improved overall employ ment picture, the unemployment situation took a turn for the better. Insured unemployment, as a percentage of covered employment, fell to 3 percent in April. This was well below last year’s level and under the national average. More comprehensive measures available for several major Tennessee cities confirm the reduction in the ranks of the unemployed. In Nashville and Knoxville, unemploy ment, as of mid-March, was only 3.1 percent of the labor force. And while this rate was slightly higher for the Chattanooga area, unemployment there was no longer the problem it was several years ago. F a rm A c tiv ity — B r ig h t b u t S k e tc h y Unless one belabors the point somewhat, Tennessee is no more of an agricultural area than is the United States as a whole. Still, farm activity provides one-tenth of all jobs in Tennessee and is thus important to the state’s econ•4 • om y. G en era lly , th e farm p ictu re h as b e e n r ea son ab ly g o o d , as is in d ica ted b y th e 4 -p er c e n t in crea se in ca sh receip ts du rin g 1 9 6 4 . R ea d in g b e tw e e n th e lin es su g g ests va rio u s crosscurrents at p la y th ou gh . D e sp ite a c u tb a ck in to b a c c o a creage, crop receip ts w ere w e ll a h ea d o f the 1 9 6 3 to ta l, th an k s to in crea sed c o tto n p ro d u ctio n and h igh er so y b e a n ou tp ut. R e c eip ts from liv e sto c k and p o u ltry p ro d u cts, o n th e oth er h an d , fe ll slig h tly b e ca u se o f p rice w e a k n esse s for b e e f and eggs and a slig h tly red u ced ou tp u t o f m ilk , w h ich is im p o rta n t to th e sta te ’s farm ec o n o m y . A lth o u g h th e u n im p ressiv e liv e sto c k pattern carried o v er in to th e first quarter o f 1 9 6 5 , to ta l farm receip ts sta y ed ah ead o f th o se o f a year ago. H ig h er in c o m es o n and off th e farm e n a b led T e n n e s sea n s to step up their sp en d in g co n sid era b ly . D e m a n d for n ew a u to s h as b e e n p a rticu larly brisk , ju d gin g fro m a 2 8 p ercen t in crea se in registration s in 1 9 6 4 . T h is strength in a u to sa les carried in to 1 9 6 5 . In crea sed d ep a rtm en t store sa les p ro v id ed a further stim u lu s to retail trade. B y sh arp ly step p in g u p their cred it v o lu m e , c o m m ercia l b a n k s con trib u ted to th e h igh er sp en d in g o f co n su m ers and b u sin esses. A t th e en d o f 1 9 6 4 , to ta l lo a n s o f m em b er b an k s lo ca ted in th e eastern tw o-th ird s o f T e n n e sse e {i.e., th e S ix th D istr ic t p o rtio n o f th e sta te ) h a d m o v e d 15 p ercen t h igh er th an a year earlier. M o re recen tly , cred it d em a n d s see m e d to a ccelera te. B a n k s r e sp o n d ed b y in crea sin g th eir lo a n s in th e first fou r m o n th s o f 1 9 6 5 m ore th an on e-fifth at a se a so n a lly adjusted a n n u al rate. D o e s this m ea n th at ev ery th in g is b u o y a n t in th e sta te’s e co n o m y ? N o t at all. O n th e b a sis o f co n str u c tio n aw ards for the first quarter, o n e m ajor typ e o f activ ity — resid en tial h o u sin g — ap p ears to h a v e slo w ed d o w n sligh tly. T h is w ea k n ess c o m e s o n th e h eels o f fairly g o o d in creases during 1 9 6 4 . F o rtu n a tely , oth er ty p es o f co n str u c tio n h ave b een h o ld in g up w ell. E con om ic In d icators— T e n n e sse e P e r s o n a l In c o m e N o n fa r m E m p lo y m e n t M a n u f a c t u r in g E m p lo y m e n t M a n u f a c t u r in g P a y r o lls F a rm C a s h R e c e ip t s m oving o v e r a g e B a n k D e b its What About the Future? A s w e n o ted in ou r la st ro u n d u p ,1 T e n n e s s e e ’s e c o n o m y h as b eh a v e d in crea sin g ly lik e th at o f th e U n ite d S tates as a w h o le. W ith T e n n e sse e ’s stak es so c lo s e ly in terw o v en w ith th e fortu n es o f th e n a tio n a l e c o n o m y , o n e m u st start w ith a n a tio n a l b u sin ess fo r ec a st to p red ict b u sin ess in th e state during th e rest o f th e year. W h ile su ch a p red ic tio n is b e y o n d th e sc o p e o f this report, o n e ca n , n ev erth e le ss, m a k e tw o g en era liza tio n s. F irst, h o w th e en tire state w ill fare p ro b a b ly is g o in g to h in g e very m u ch o n d e v e lo p m en ts in its m ajor m etro p o lita n areas (C h a tta n o o g a , K n o x v ille, N a sh v ille , an d M e m p h is) b ec a u se e m p lo y m en t is b ec o m in g in crea sin g ly c o n cen tra ted in th e se fou r cen ters. S e co n d , th e state o f T e n n e sse e c o n tin u es to fa c e the ch a lle n g e o f o u td ista n cin g th e U n ited States as a w h o le if M e m b e r B a n k D e p o s it s it is to ca tch up e c o n o m ica lly . 100— — 100 1111111111111 111111111111 111111111111 111111111111 111111 19 61 1962 1963 * F o r S ix th D is tr ic t p o rtio n o f state only. 1964 1965 H ar r y B r a n d t This is one of a series in which economic developments in each of the Sixth District states are discussed. Develop ments in Louisiana’s economy were analyzed in the April 1965 R e v ie w , and a discussion of Florida’s economy is scheduled for a forthcoming issue. 1 See the M a r c h 1964 issue o f the Monthly Review. •5 * Bank Announcements Debits to Demand Deposit Accounts Insured Commercial Banks in the Sixth District (In Thousands of Dollars) On M a y 1, T h e F i r s t S t a t e B a n k , Phil C ampbell, A la bama, a n o n m em b er bank, began to rem it at par for checks d ra w n on it when received fr o m the Federal R eserve Bank. Officers are Walston Hester, President; F. N . Parrish, Vice President; and S. P. Allm an, Cashier. The C i t i z e n s B a n k o f W a s h i n g t o n C o u n t y , Sander s ville, Georgia, a new ly organized n o n m em b er bank, op en ed f o r business on M a y 3 and began to rem it at par. Officers in clude D r. Thom as W. G ilm ore, Chairman o f the Board; J. B. Wall, Jr., President; and E. P. Lee, E xecutive Vice P resident an d Cashier. Capital is $2 00,000, and surplus an d undivided profits, $200,000. On M a y 6, the B e d f o r d C o u n t y B a n k , Shelbyville, T en nessee, a new ly organized n o n m e m b er bank, o pe n ed fo r business an d began to rem it at par. Officers are Jack E. Short, President and Chairman of the Board; A . K . Minter, Jr., Vice President an d Cashier; John E. G a n t an d Dr. John S. D erryberry, Vice Presidents; an d A lfr e d L. English, G eneral Counsel. Capital is $200,000, an d surplus and un divide d profits, $200,000. The C i t i z e n s N a t i o n a l B a n k , Florence, Mississippi, a conversion o f the Citizens Bank, a n o n m em b er bank, o pen ed for business as a national bank on M a y 14 an d b e gan to rem it at par. Officers include W. P. M cM ullan, C hairman of the Board; W. M . M c K ell, President; G. W. Barlow, Vice President; an d Mrs. D o ris T. Bradshaw, Cashier. Capital is $ 10 1,250, and surplus an d undivided profits, approxim ately $133,500, as reported by the C o m p troller of the C urrency at the time the charter was granted. On M a y 14, the M i d w a y B a n k a t T a m p a , Tampa, Flor ida, a new ly organized n o n m e m b er bank, op en ed for busi ness and began to rem it at par. O fficers include R alph A . Marsicano, President and Chairman of the Board; J. R. M yn a tt, Vice President; an d A . H. Vermeulen, E xecutive Vice P resident and Cashier. Capital is $250,000, and surplus and undivided profits, $112,500. The S i l v e r C r e e k S t a t e B a n k , Silver Creek, M issis sippi, a n o n m em b er bank, began to rem it at par on M a y 15. Officers are Earl R. Wilson, Chairman of the Board; R . B. Shivers, P resident and Cashier; T. E. Daniel, Vice P resident an d Assistant Cashier; and J. W. Waller, Vice President. On M a y 17, the B a n k o f W e s t B l o c t o n , W est Blocton, A labam a, a new ly organized state m e m b e r bank, op en ed fo r business and began to rem it at par. Officers are E ddie G. D ow ns, President; E. P. Jones, Vice President; and W. W. Findley, Secretary. Capital is $ 75,000, and surplus a n d oth er capital funds, $51,000. The S a n J o s e B a r n e t t B a n k , Jacksonville, Florida, a n ew ly organized n o n m e m b er bank, o p en ed fo r business on M a y 2 0 a n d began to rem it at par. Officers include L ero y Gardner, Chairman o f the Board; John T. Cannon, III, President; H arry L. K inne, Jr., Vice President; a n d J. R ic h a rd Kasell, Vice President and Cashier. Capital is $ 35 0,000, a n d surplus an d un divided profits, $175,000. Percent Change Year-to-date 4 Months Apr. 1965 from 1965 Mar. Apr. from 1965 1964 1964 Apr. 1965 Mar. 1965 Apr. 1964 1,258,211 60,696 177,125 435,455 247,804 78,986 1,225,180 58,441 171,882 408,018 286,691 76,026 1,108,382 51,941 150,264 378,371 231,328 73,355 +3 +4 +3 +7 — 14 +4 + 14 + 17 + 18 + 15 +7 +8 +10 + 11 + 11 + 10 +8 +7 556,642 1,360,391 1,886,192 457,633 194,247 1,101,273 398,245 87,728 3,718,872 162,888 182,944 198,131 224,083 419,528 110,962 124,091 1,992,229 480,399 501,852 402,742 1,292,563 570,444 l,377,379r l,982,778r 455,234 199,552 1,154,711 410,824 84,675 3,781,746 173,987 189,608 208,704 244,130 470,567 97,476 106,896 2,119,762 504,807 509,279 394,815 1,064,121 506,654 1,205,912 1,798,654 439,924 161,521 1,038,005 370,547 65,748 3,428,721 159,364 161,185 177,964 215,881 374,436 85,208 98,243 1,857,123 424,378 433,643 360,623 1,071,676 —2 —1 —5 +1 —3 —5 —3 +4 —2 —6 —4 —5 —8 — 11 + 14 + 16 —6 —5 —1 +2 +21 + 10 + 13 +5 +4 + 20 +6 +7 + 33 +8 +2 + 13 + 11 +4 + 12 +30 + 26 +7 + 13 +16 + 12 +21 +6 + 11 +6 +1 + 16 +6 +9 + 23 + 12 +3 + 12 + 14 +5 +20 + 17 +7 + 11 + 11 + 10 +8 +6 STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREASf* Birmingham . . Gadsden . . . . Huntsville . . Mobile . . . . Montgomery . . Tuscaloosa . . Ft. LauderdaleHollywood . Jacksonville . . . . . . . . Orlando . . . . Pensacola . . . Tampa-St. Petersburg W. Palm Beach Albany . . . . Atlanta . . . . Augusta . . . . Columbus . . . Macon....................... Savannah . . . Baton Rouge . . Lafayette . . . Lake Charles . . New Orleans . . . Jackson . . . . Chattanooga . . . Knoxville . . . . Nashville . . . . OTHER CENTERS Anniston . . . . Dothan . . . . Selm a....................... Bartow . . . . Bradenton . . . Brevard County . . Daytona Beach . . Ft. MyersN. Ft. Myers Gainesville . . . Monroe County . . Lakeland . . . . O c a la ....................... St. Augustine . . St. Petersburg . . Sarasota . . . . Tallahassee . . . Tampa . . . . Winter Haven . . Athens . . . . Brunswick . . . Dalton . . . . Elberton . . . . Gainesville . . . Griffin . . . . LaG range . . . Newnan . . . . R om e....................... Valdosta . . . . Abbeville . . . . Alexandria . . . Bunkie . . . . Hammond . . . New Iberia . . . Plaquemine . . . Thibodaux . . . Biloxi-Gulfport Hattiesburg . . . Laurel....................... Meridian . . . . Natchez . . . . PascagoulaMoss Point . . Vicksburg . . . Yazoo City . . . Bristol . . . . Johnson City . . . Kingsport . . . 53,206 47,926 33,602 33,694 53,986 188,674 77,582 53,937 49,464 32,456 33,424 52,736 186,273 77,595 51,058 44,986 32,795 27,076 52,705 169,276 75,371 —1 —3 +4 +1 +2 +1 —0 +4 +7 +2 + 24 +2 + 11 +3 +6 +8 +3 +21 +2 +11 +1 68 686 70,290 32,076 110,728 51,545 17,447 276,336 105,732 109,189 604,857 63,185 59,970 38,501 89,581 10,847 62,903 26,121 21,205 23,924 60,351 43,654 8,913 99,910 5,061 32.619 31,107 7,963 18,350 77,458 44,456 34,666 57,102 30,347 70,900 72,076 32,403 116,293 54,976 17,684 283,063 95,475 98,379 649,837 58,862 60,445 40,998 83,047 11,924 60,019 27,872 19,632 23,209 63,699 46,235 9,067 99,886 4,564 29,118 31,966 8 866 18,483 79 285 44,067 30,509 57,890 29,172 65,864 64,450 25,647 100,366 52,563 17,664 266,847 102,022 86,509 548,975 53,965 51,454 37,315 84,472 12,301 57,517 24,063 19,129 22,120 56,644 39,961 8,254 90,635 4,594 28,191 28,166 7,596 18,054 71,690 40,906 31,322 52,585 28,833 —3 —2 —1 —5 —6 —1 —2 + 11 + 11 —7 +7 —1 —6 +8 —9 +5 —6 +8 +3 —5 —6 —2 +0 + 11 + 12 —3 — 10 —1 —2 +1 + 14 —1 +4 +4 +9 + 25 + 10 —2 —1 +4 +4 + 26 + 10 + 17 + 17 +3 +6 — 12 +9 +9 + 11 +8 +7 +9 +8 + 10 + 10 + 16 + 10 +5 +2 +8 +9 + 11 +9 +5 +5 + 11 + 20 +8 +6 —3 +5 +2 + 13 + 11 +7 + 14 +6 + 17 +8 +6 + 11 +5 +1 +4 + 13 +8 +9 + 13 + 12 +5 +7 +2 +6 +7 —1 +4 +1 45,022 33,834 20,270 62,051 62,752 120,333 42,072 33,130 19,763 61,409 64,359 147,934 41,787 27,105 21,487 54,111 58,186 105,687 +7 +2 +3 +1 —2 — 19 +8 +25 —6 +15 +8 + 14 + 10 + 16 +9 +9 +8 + 13 25,188,008r 22,717,021 —0 +10 +9 +1 —2 —1 —4 —1 +7 + 11 +8 + 11 +10 + 10 + 14 +8 +8 + 13 + 12 +8 +5 SIXTH DISTRICT, Total 25,078,283 Alabama-- . . ? Floridaf . . . . Georgiaf . . . . Louisiana--** . ? Mississippi- ** . ?Tennessee--** . ? . . . . 3,230,375 8,006,612 6,055,684 3,329,399 1,069,107 3,387,106 3,190,632 8,178,600r 6,107,249 3,475,916 1,080,938 3,154,673 2,899,105 7,397,210 5,449,031 3,018,847 969,306 2,983,522 *Year-ago data have revised for all states and for all SMSA's except Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Miami, Albany, Lafayette, and Lake Charles. r Revised. **Includes only banks in the Sixth District portion of the state. fPartially estimated. •6 • S i x t h D i s t r i c t S ta tis tic s Seasonally Adjusted (All data are indexes, 1957-59 = Latest Month (1965) One Month Ago Two Months Ago TOO, unless indicated otherwise.) One Year Ago Latest Month (1965) SIXTH DISTRICT INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . Manufacturing P a y r o lls ............................. Farm Cash R e c e ip ts .................................. Department Store S a l e s * * ....................... Two Months Ago One Year Ago G EO R G IA INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . Mar. 46,378 46,320r 45,970r 42,858 Manufacturing P a y r o lls .................................. Apr. 157 156 143 155 Farm Cash R e c e ip t s ........................................ Mar. 137 140 125 125 Crops ............................................................... Mar. 162 158 163 166 Livestock ......................................................... 114 119 119 110 Department Store S a l e s * / * * ....................... May 147p 141r 140r 139 Instalment Credit at Banks, *(Mil. $) Apr. 215 182 New Loans......................................................... 205 205r Repayments.................................................... Apr. 167 185 178 183 One Month Ago PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm Employment........................................ M anufacturing.............................................. Apparel......................................................... Chem icals................................................... Fabricated M e t a ls .................................. Food............................................................... Lbr., Wood Prod., Furn. & Fix. . . . Paper ......................................................... Primary M e ta ls ........................................ Textiles......................................................... Transportation Equipment . . . . Nonmanufacturing........................................ Construction.............................................. Farm Employment.............................................. Insured Unemployment, (Percent of Cov. Emp.) Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Construction Contracts*.................................. R e sid e n tia l................................................... All O th e r......................................................... Industrial Use of Electric Power . . . . Cotton Consum ption**.................................. Petrol. Prod, in Coastal La. and Miss.** FINANCE AND BANKING Membei Bank Loans* All B a n k s......................................................... Leading Cities .............................................. Member Bank Deposits* All B a n k s......................................................... Leading Cities .............................................. Bank D e b it s * / * * .............................................. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Mar. Apr. Apr. 122 121 148 115 130 108 100 108 112 98 342 122 120 73 2.4 41.5 181 174 188 126 115 173 121 121 147r 115 124r 108 100 109 lllr 97 140 121 120 73 2.5 41.5 139 148 131 127 115 173 121 120 145 115 129 108 98 109 112 98 140 121 118 78 2.6 41.5 137 139 136 128 113 176 116 116 139 111 121 105 97 105 107 96 125 117 109 79 3.2 40.8 145 152 149 122 102 169 Apr. May 199 184 197 181 193 180 172 162 Apr. May Apr. 155 146 164 156 143 159r 152 143 155r 140 133 149 8,698 158 116 139 8,611r 160 124 145 8,634r 157 133 138 8,064 145 109 129 Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. 121 119 122 129 64 1.8 40.9 121 119 122 127r 63 1.9 41.2 120 118 121 127 64 2.0 40.9 117 114 118 119 72 2.4 40.4 Apr. Apr. Apr. 205 166 172 206 168 171 200 162 169 176 145 155 . Mar. . Apr. . Mar. . Apr. 6,963 137 113 132 6,938r 138 122 121r 6,901r 139 139 132 6,283 128 115 118 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm Employment.................................. . Apr. Manufacturing........................................ . Apr. Nonmanufacturing.................................. . Apr. Construction........................................ . Apr. Farm Employment..............................................Apr. Insured Unemployment, (Percent of Cov. Emp.) Apr. Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Apr. 114 109 115 125 69 3.1 41.7 114 109 115 130 72 3.1 42.5r 113 109 114 126 75 3.2 42.7 107 104 108 99 80 3.7 41.8 Apr. Apr. Apr. 179 136 143 179 137 145 178 134 134 157 125 129 INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . Mar. Manufacturing P a y r o lls ............................. Apr. Farm Cash R e c e ip ts .................................. . Mar. Department Store Sales*/** . . . . . Apr. 3,541 170 134 100 3,578r 162 185 93r 3,532r 160 171 101 3,274 146 127 106 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm Employment........................................Apr. M anufacturing..............................................Apr. Nonmanufacturing........................................Apr. Construction..............................................Apr. Farm Employment..............................................Apr. Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Apr. Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Apr. 125 132 122 128 62 2.8 41.3 124 130 122 126 66 3.2 40.7r 123 129 121 124 72 3.2 41.1 119 121 117 117 76 4.2 40.1 . Apr. . Apr. . Apr. 213 165 164 214 167 163 213 167 163 195 152 148 . Mar. . Apr. . Mar. . Apr. 7,390 150 111 119 7,433r 150 113 122 7,458r 150 117 123 6,927 139 119 115 Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. 122 125 120 137 80 3.0 41.0 121 125 119 140r 77 3.3 41.0 121 125 119 140 87 3.3 41.2 116 119 114 131 84 3.9 40.5 FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank Lo a n s*.................................. . Apr. Member Bank Deposits*................................... Apr. Bank D e b it s * / * * ............................................. . Apr. 199 157 186 197 157 165 192 155 162 173 141 164 . Mar. . Apr. . Mar. . Apr. PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm Employment.................................. Manufacturing........................................ Nonmanufacturing.................................. . . . . Farm Employment........................................ . Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank L o a n s .................................. Member Bank D e p o s its ............................. Bank D e b its * * .............................................. . . . LO UISIANA INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . Manufacturing P a y r o lls ............................. Farm Cash R e c e ip ts .................................. Department Store Sales*/** . . . . FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank Lo a n s*.................................. Member Bank Deposits*............................. Bank D e b it s * / * * ........................................ . . . M ISSISSIPPI ALABAM A INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . Mar. Manufacturing P a y r o lls .................................. Apr. Farm Cash R e c e ip t s ........................................ Mar. Department Store S a l e s * * ............................. Apr. 6,241 148 117 109 6,210r 145r 129 115 6,129r 144 141 115 5,731 129 113 107 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm Employment........................................ Manufacturing.............................................. Nonmanufacturing........................................ Construction.............................................. Farm Employment.............................................. Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. 115 114 115 113 76 2.5 42.1 114 113r 115 113 73 2.6 41.8r 114 113 114 112 76 2.7 41.8 111 107 112 112 79 3.4 40.4 FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank L o a n s ........................................ Member Bank D e p o s its .................................. Bank D e b its * * ................................................... Apr. Apr. Apr. 194 155 158 192 155 151 187 154 151 170 141 142 FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank Lo a n s*.................................. Member Bank Deposits*............................. Bank D e b it s * / * * ........................................ FLORIDA TENNESSEE INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . . Manufacturing P a y r o lls .................................. Farm Cash R e c e ip ts ........................................ Department Store S a l e s * * ............................. Mar. 13,545 Apr. 193 Mar. 150 171 Apr. 13,550r 13,316r 12,579 188 189 179 143 138 156 lllr 173r 164 INCOME AND SPENDING Personal Income, (Mil. $, Annual Rate) . Manufacturing P a y r o lls ............................. Farm Cash R e c e ip ts .................................. Department Store Sales*/** . . . . PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm Employment........................................ M anufacturing.............................................. Nonmanufacturing........................................ Construction .............................................. Farm Employment.............................................. Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. Apr. 130 133 130 109 96 1.9 42.6 130r 131 129 109 95 1.9 42.5 FINANCE AND BANKING Member Bank L o a n s ........................................ Apr. Member Bank D e p o s its .................................. Apr. Bank D e b its * * .................................................... Apr. 204 155 163 200 156 157r 129 131 129 106 104 2.0 42.3 197 152 153r 125 129 125 101 88 2.6 41.9 174 141 151 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm Employment.................................. . M anufacturing........................................ . Nonmanufacturing.................................. . Construction ........................................ . Farm Employment........................................ . Insured Unemployment, (Percentof Cov. Emp.) Avg. Weekly Hrs. in Mfg., (Hrs.) . . . . *For Sixth District area only. Other totals for entire six states. r Revised. p Preliminary, **Daily average basis. Sources: Personal income estimated by this Bank; nonfarm, mfg. and nonmfg. emp., mfg. payrolls and hours, and unemp., U. S. Dept, of Labor and cooperating state agencies; cotton consumption, U. S. Bureau of Census; construction contracts, F. W. Dodge Corp.; petrol, prod., U. S. Bureau of Mines; industrial use of elec. power, Fed. Power Comm.; farm cash receipts and farm emp., U.S.D.A. Other indexes based on data collected by this Bank. A ll indexes calculated by this Bank. •7 • D IS T R IC T P e rso n a l Incom e B U S IN E S S C O N D IT IO N S A A a j o r in d ic a to r s s u g g e s t th a t D istr ic t e c o n o m i c a c tiv ity c o n t i n u e s to b e v ig o r o u s . A d v a n c e s in e m p lo y m e n t a n d d e c l i n e s in in s u r e d u n e m p lo y m e n t h a v e o c c u r r e d r e c e n tly . A fter d e c lin in g o v e r t h e fir st q u a r te r o f 1 9 6 5 , c o n s tr u c tio n c o n t r a c t s a re r is in g a g a in , e s p e c i a ll y in t h e r e s id e n t ia l s e c t o r . A n d , b a n k c r e d it is e x p a n d in g fu r th e r . C o n s u m e r s h a v e m a in ta in e d th e ir s p e n d in g a t t h e m o r e m o d e s t r a te o f M a rch . F a r m e r s, h o w e v e r , a r e s u f f e r in g s e t b a c k s fro m la c k o f rain b u t h a v e b e e n e n c o u r a g e d by t h e r e c e n t p r ic e r is e s o f s e v e r a l m a jo r fa rm p r o d u c ts . Nonfarm E m p lo y m en t Mfg. E m p l o y m e n t i* Average W eekly H o u rs’ Worked in Mfg. D istr ic t s t a t e s c o n tin u e d to r e g is te r e m p lo y m e n t g a in s th r o u g h A p ril. S in ce th e first o f th e y ear, m a n u fa ctu rin g e m p lo y m e n t h a s a c co u n te d for m o s t o f th e in crea se in A la b a m a and M ississip p i. O n th e o th er h a n d , in G eo rg ia and T e n n e sse e , n o n m a n u fa ctu rin g a ctiv ity h as p ro v id e d th e g rea test stim u lu s. P h en o m e n a l co n str u ctio n g a in s in L o u isia n a , d a tin g b a c k to ea rly 1 9 6 4 , h a v e h e lp ed k eep th e sta te ’s e m p lo y m e n t tren d o n an u p w ard tilt. In F lo rid a , c o n stru ctio n g a in s, w h ich b eg a n in Jan u ary, a lso h a v e b ee n in stru m en ta l in liftin g the sta te o u t o f th e sligh t em p lo y m e n t d o w n tu rn th a t o ccu rred in th e la st h a lf of 1964. Mfg. P a y r o l l s ) C o n stru ctio n Contracts 5-mo. I ’ . moving ovg. A II v* Industrial U s e of E lectric P o w e r C otton C onsu m p tio n C o n s id e r a b le im p r o v e m e n t in c o n s t r u c tio n c o n t r a c t v o lu m e o c c u r r e d in A p ril, r e v e r s in g t h e d o w n w a rd tr e n d o f t h e fir st q u a r te r . R e sid e n tia l b u ild in g aw ards tu rn ed in th e stro n g est g a in s, a lth o u g h w e a k n e ss w as still e v i d en t in so m e m ark ets. M o rtg a g e fu n d s c o n tin u e to b e a m p le in sp ite o f a p ro n o u n ced slo w in g o f g row th in A p r il a m o n g m o st o f th e D istr ic t’s savin gs and lo a n a sso c ia tio n s. ^ v* v* B a n k c r e d it c o n tin u e d to e x p a n d a t b a n k s in m a jo r S ix th D istr ic t c it ie s th r o u g h t h e fir st th r e e w e e k s o f M ay. L o a n s in cre a se d su b sta n tia lly , as th e A p ril e x p a n sio n in b u sin ess lo a n s c o n tin u e d in M ay. A ls o , c o n su m e r lo a n s, w h ich w ere so m e w h a t w ea k du rin g A p r il, sh o w ed n e w stren gth . In v estm en ts, h o w ev er, d e c lin e d m o re th an u su a l, w ith b o th U . S. G o v e r n m e n t se cu rities and o th er secu ritie s sh o w in g red u ctio n s. T o ta l d e p o sits reg istered an in crea se as d em a n d d ep o sits ro se sig n ifica n tly and tim e d e p o sits a d v a n c e d , a lth o u g h at a slo w er p a c e th an earlier in th e year. Bank D ebits Farm C a sh R e c e ip ts 6-mo. moving avg. & '1 2 5 M em ber B ank Loans C o n s u m e r s a p p a r e n tly m a in ta in e d th e ir s p e n d i n g fa ir ly w e ll in April a fte r t h e s h a r p drop in M a rch . D e p a r tm e n t sto re sa les d ec lin e d so m ew h a t further fro m F eb ru a ry and M a rch le v e ls, b u t d eb its to d em a n d d e p o sits rea ch ed a n ew p eak . P relim in a ry rep orts, h o w e v er , in d ic a te so m e r e c o v e r y in d ep artm en t store sa les in ea rly M a y . In M a rch , to ta l retail sa les d e c lin e d , a lth o u g h p erso n a l in c o m e sh o w e d p ra ctica lly n o ch a n g e. P e r so n a l sa v in g s in crea sed stro n g ly in F eb ru ary and M a rch b u t a p p a ren tly less so in A p ril. T h e sa m e p attern also w as ex h ib ited b y co n su m e r in sta lm e n t cred it at co m m e r c ia l b a n k s. M em ber B ank D e p o sits -P E R C E N T O F REQUIRED R E SE R V E S _ B o r r o w i n g s f r o m F. R. B a n k s \ a Excess R eserves 19 62 \ i i i ■i I i i i i i I i i i r i 1 9 63 1 9 64 *Seas. adj. figure; not an index. i■ i I i 1965 Dry w e a th e r h a s e x e r te d a d ra g on t h e fa rm e c o n o m y . A lth o u g h cro p p la n tin g s h a v e b een c o m p le te d in m o st p la c e s, p e r sisten t dry w ea th er in m a n y im p o rta n t fa rm in g lo c a litie s h as c a u se d g ro w in g c ro p s to d eterio rate. It also h as retard ed p a stu re g ro w th and h a m p ered th e g erm in a tio n o f n e w seed in g s. L iv e sto c k and p o u ltry m a rk etin g s h a v e in cr e a se d rec en tly as b e e f and b roiler p rod u cers b o o ste d th eir sh ip m en ts, p artly in r e sp o n se to risin g p rices. N o t e : D a t a o n w h ic h statem ents are b ased have been adjusted whenever p o ssib le to elim in ate se aso n al influences.