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ECONOMIC
TRANSMITTED
TO THE CONGRESS
JANUARY 1977
Economic Report
of the President
Transmitted to the Congress
January 1977
TOGETHER WITH
THE ANNUAL REPORT
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
WASHINGTON
:
1977
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price $2.90
Stock Number 040-000-00376-2
CONTENTS
Page
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT
1
ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
ADVISERS*
13
CHAPTER 1. ECONOMIC POLICY AND OUTLOOK
23
CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIC REVIEW OF 1976
58
CHAPTER 3. T H E WORLD ECONOMY IN 1976
100
CHAPTER 4. POLICIES TO INCREASE SUPPLY
136
APPENDIX A. REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1976
171
APPENDIX B. STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME, EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION
*For a detailed table of contents of the Council's Report, seepage 17.
181
ECONOMIC REPORT
OF THE PRESIDENT
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT
To the Congress of the United States:
The past year was a year of sound economic achievement. A year
ago I said that my key economic goal was "to create an economic environment in which sustainable noninflationary growth can be achieved."
While much remains to be done, we have built a very solid foundation
for further economic gains in 1977 and beyond. The recovery has
continued to produce substantial gains in output and employment.
Unemployment remains much too high, but the marked reduction that
we see in inflation as well as in inflationary expectations represents significant progress toward regaining the stable noninflationary prosperity
that has been our goal.
The gross national product, adjusted for inflation, rose by slightly more
than 6 percent last year. The rise in production was extremely rapid at
the beginning of 1976. The advance moderated during the spring, but
at the close of the year the recovery showed signs of reacceleration. In
December more than 88 million Americans were employed, an increase
of about 3 million from last December and more than 4 million above
the 1975 recession low. Economic gains were widespread. Real incomes
continued their rise, consumer expenditures also moved upward, business
investment began to recover, and housing construction improved significantly. Unemployment dropped sharply in the early months of last
year, although it rose again as the extraordinarily rapid expansion in
the labor force outpaced the creation of new jobs.
Substantial headway was also made on the inflation front. Since late
1975 the consumer price index has risen only 5 percent, a full percentage
point less than was anticipated and a noteworthy improvement over the
12 percent inflation rate of 1974. Wage settlements continued to moderate. Record crops and more ample supplies of farm products halted the
sharp increases in food prices. As fears of inflation ebbed, interest rates
declined, contrary to most expectations at the beginning of the year;
and the stock market, reflecting this heightened confidence, was close to
the highs of the year when trading ended in 1976. The lower rate of infla-
tion and the improved state of financial markets attest to the significant
progress we have made during the past year toward reestablishing a
stable, noninflationary, full-employment economy.
If this goal is to be fully realized, the present policy of moderation in
fiscal and monetary affairs and of relying on a restored vitality in the private sector must continue. We need tax reductions to support a lasting
economic recovery and to provide relief from the increases in real tax burdens induced by inflation. In the long run, inflation and real economic
growth will constantly push taxpayers into higher and higher tax
brackets unless tax laws are changed. Some believe that these additional
tax receipts should be spent on new Government programs. I do not.
Instead I believe that the Congress should counteract the growing burden imposed by the tax system—and the reduction of private incentives
that it implies—by periodically providing offsetting tax cuts while continuing to restrain the rate of growth of Government spending.
The creation of permanent, meaningful, and productive jobs for our
growing labor force requires a higher level of private investment. Tax
reductions must be so designed that measures to stimulate consumption
are balanced by those which will increase investment. Investment has
for some time been falling short of the levels required if we are to provide enough productive jobs for our people at rising real wage rates, and
if we hope to renew and improve our capital stock so that we can meet
our requirements for energy and make headway toward environmental,
job safety, and other goals. Investment has grown more slowly than
would normally be true at this stage of a recovery. A stronger spur
to investment in productive plant and equipment is necessary for the
further improvement in production and employment in 1977 and beyond.
TAX REDUCTIONS
In October 1975, I presented to the Congress a program of tax cuts
and spending restraints that would have reduced the burden of government for all taxpayers. It would have given the American people more
freedom to spend their incomes as they choose rather than as Washington chooses for them, and it would have increased incentives to expand
investment. However, the Congress decided otherwise—to increase spending far more than I wanted and to cut taxes far less than I wanted.
Earlier this month I again sent to the Congress my recommendations to
cut taxes. I have once more urged a permanent increase in the personal
exemption from $750 to $1,000 to replace the system of temporary tax
credits that has so greatly complicated the individual income tax return.
I am also recommending a higher income allowance and a series of per-
manent tax rate reductions. My proposals provide income tax relief for
individuals that will total $ 10 billion in 1977.
To encourage the investment that will mean good steady jobs for our
expanding labor force, I am recommending once again a permanent
reduction in the corporate income tax from 48 to 46 percent. I urge as
well the enactment of legislation to make permanent the extension of the
10 percent investment tax credit and the increased corporate surtax
exemption provided by the Tax Reform Act of 1976. In the longer run
we must eliminate the double taxation of dividend payments. I am therefore renewing my proposal to integrate corporate and personal income
taxes gradually over a period of years beginning in 1978.
I am also renewing my recommendation of accelerated depreciation
for investment in new plants and equipment undertaken in areas where
unemployment is 7 percent or higher. I am firmly convinced that this
is a far better way to raise employment where the economy has not caught
up with the recovery than adding layer upon layer of new spending
programs.
Although such tax cuts for individuals and businesses are desirable
at this time to support stronger consumer and capital goods markets,
we must be mindful of the need to bring down our large Federal budget
deficit as quickly as possible. As the economy improves and the demand
for private credit becomes greater, Federal borrowing requirements to
finance the deficit must be lowered to avoid preempting funds needed for
private investment and to ensure steady progress in the battle against
inflation. Accordingly, in my Budget Message I am again recommending responsible restraint in the growth of Federal budget outlays. These
policies will also bring us closer to our goals of stable noninflationary
prosperity.
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Much progress was evident in the rest of the world last year, and international economic cooperation continued to improve. Restoration
of a stable growth path, however, has proved difficult. Throughout the
world, countries are still grappling with the complicated and painful
aftermath of inflation, recession, and the sharp increases in the relative
price of energy. Serious social and political problems have made these
adjustments more difficult.
When I met with the leaders of the major industrial nations in the
summer of 1976, the restoration of full employment in our several economies was the most important item on our agenda. Stable full employment and continued improvement in the well-being of our own peoples
and the world population at large, we agreed, will take a number of
years. Although the course of faster expansion seems attractive, it is
clearly risky. Impatience which leads to a reacceleration of inflation
could jeopardize the significant progress we have achieved so far.
The costly lessons of the past decade are inescapable. High and variable
inflation rates are incompatible with sustainable growth. Overly expansionary policies contributed to the very high inflation rate and, in turn,
to the deepest worldwide recession since the 1930s. Policy changes and
adjustments will doubtless be needed in 1977 and thereafter. But policies
must hold to a reasonably steady and predictable course. In particular,
the measures we select to further our economic expansion must not raise
the risk of future inflation.
The growing recognition among nations of their interdependence has
helped to create the cooperation that is now apparent among members of
the industrial community. The mutuality of the policy goals of the
developed and developing countries needs to be better understood on
each side. For this reason the discussions between developed and developing countries during 1976 have attempted to foster a climate in
which our joint interests and our diverse concerns can be freely expressed. Although the progress so far achieved has disappointed some,
it has helped us avoid the sometimes easier but mutually destructive
course of trade restrictions.
ENERGY POLICY
Energy matters retain their troublesome hold among the problems
threatening the Nation's long-run prosperity. The sharp increases in oil
prices in 1973-75 imposed major costs upon our economy. We have done
much to accommodate the new higher prices for energy, but some aspects
of energy policy have hampered the adjustment. The Congress has continued to hold prices for domestically produced oil and natural gas well
below world market levels. These lower energy prices have encouraged
the inefficient use of energy and discouraged efforts to expand domestic
supplies and improve the energy efficiency of the overall capital stock.
The recovery has heightened the demand for energy and thus resulted
in greater imports of oil. In consequence the United States now depends
even more heavily upon imported petroleum and is even more vulnerable
than a year ago to future price manipulation and interruptions in supply.
Now that the problems of recession and inflation are receding, we can
more vigorously address this difficulty. The energy program that I have
presented before is designed to answer the longer need.
First steps are under way toward creating a strategic oil reserve which
will help shield us from disruptions in supply. The OPEC pricing decisions of December were a forceful reminder of the Nation's growing need
for protection against foreign moves that affect the price and can alter the
availability of imported oil. Strategic storage will provide a first line of
defense against the threat of disrupted supplies. This vital program must
be implemented, and we must also take positive steps to lessen our economic dependence upon foreign oil.
Measures that will make us less dependent on foreign energy supplies
have been proposed by this Administration; but unfortunately many of
the most important proposals have not yet been accepted by the Congress.
Some of the measures involve present costs which will yield much greater
future benefits. Others, which would lead to more efficient use of our
energy resources, would benefit the Nation immediately as well as in the
future.
It is critically important—for energy security, environmental quality,
and long-term economic productivity—that prices of domestic petroleum
and natural gas be allowed to match more closely the full cost of these
fuels. In the immediate future oil prices should be allowed to rise as they
were intended to do under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act.
Steps should also be taken which would help close the gap more rapidly
between domestic and world market prices for petroleum, allow a freemarket price for North Slope Alaskan oil, and deregulate the wellhead
price of new natural gas.
Although a number of inconsistencies remain, the relation between
the Nation's goals for energy and for the environment has become clearer
and the effects of existing policies more fully known. The time is ripe
for reexamining environmental policy and determining whether the ends
we all seek can be achieved at a lower cost to the economy and to the
security of our energy supplies.
Taken together, all of the actions recommended here would help the
economy to adjust to the new energy situation and do much to ensure
more reliable supplies of energy for the future. They would also signal
to the world that this Nation is serious about developing secure supplies
of energy. Most important, these efforts would encourage conservation
and give industry the confidence that will spur the production of both
conventional fuels and substitutes.
REGULATORY REFORM
As economic problems have arisen and been dealt with by new policy
initiatives, the Government's role in the economy has grown ever larger.
The number of commissions, agencies, administrations, bureaus, and
offices set up to conduct programs increases constantly. Each appears
important when it is first established. The trouble is that they are seldom, if ever, terminated when they have accomplished their original
mission. By one recent count there were 1,200 Federal Government organizations alone having significant powers to regulate a wide and
growing range of economic activities.
The direct Federal outlay to control practices in the private sector is
substantial. Even more important are the losses that these activities impose on the production and distribution of goods and services throughout the economy. No accurate measure of the total costs and benefits of
actions by the regulatory agencies is possible at this time or perhaps ever.
Although all Americans are aware of the substantial benefits which regulations produce in their everyday lives, we frequently lose sight of the
efforts of such programs in restricting the growth of productivity.
The use of newly developed technology, the development of new companies and products, and the opening up of new occupations have all
been impeded by the need for licenses, certification, review, and legal
judgments introduced by one agency or another. When innovative activities are discouraged progress is curbed throughout the economy, even
in those areas where some regulation is justified. Regulations must therefore be reexamined to ensure the removal of costly and counterproductive regulations and to identify those whose need has passed. Where
benefits seem large we should make sure that the benefits are realized at
the least possible cost.
To reduce the regulatory burden, I asked the Congress in the last year
to eliminate unnecessary and anticompetitive regulation in the airline
and trucking industries. This action was to follow the path of regulatory
reform that the railroad industry achieved in the Railroad Revitalization and Regulatory Reform Act of 1976. I also urged the Congress to
eliminate the Federal Power Commission's controls on new gas prices,
which have held back exploration and sales to the interstate pipelines
serving northern and western cities. Earlier this month I once again submitted to the Congress a plan to eliminate controls on gasoline refining
and marketing.
Among agencies under my jurisdiction I have set out new regulatory
procedures which will make controls more effective and less costly to all
concerned, but such steps are only a beginning. The Congress and the
8
executive branch must undertake a comprehensive review to ascertain
the effects of present controls, and then offer to the American people a
corrective program that will cut across administrative boundaries. Only a
sweeping reform will remove the regulatory burden where it is no longer
justified and place the initiative for production and distribution back in
the more efficient hands of private enterprise.
ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT IN SOCIETY
I firmly believe that if we dedicate our efforts to the major problems
I have outlined here we can successfully resolve them. As a people we
have an extraordinary capacity to marshal our resources against even the
gravest difficulties.
Unfortunately many of our problems are self-made. One which has
concerned me particularly over the years is a tendency, born of goodwill
and a desire to improve the state of American life, which makes us think
we can create costless benefits for our people. We are unwilling to confront some of our hardest choices. We persist in the belief that we can always tolerate a little larger Federal deficit, or the creation of a little more
money, especially for the sake of programs which seem to promise clear
and readily definable benefits. This is a kind of self-deception that we
must learn to resist.
Certainly we must adopt measures that promise to keep the economic
expansion going and reduce the high unemployment. But overly expansive policies with their inevitable risk of renewed inflation are realities
which are easily overlooked in the understandable desire for the immediately tangible benefits foreseen from specific programs. What we seek is a
sustainable expansion and the restoration of full employment without
inflation, and we must settle for no less.
The discipline implicit in a prudent fiscal policy is not easy but it offers very considerable and lasting rewards. I am hopeful that the recent
creation of the budget committees to serve the Congress will help to provide this necessary discipline. Prudent budget policies are essential if we
are to restore stable full-employment conditions and provide the productive jobs which our people need and want. Some part of our present deficit is the result of the recession and will accordingly disappear as full employment is restored. Beyond this, however, we must restrain the growth
of Federal expenditures. If we do not, we shall have to resign ourselves to
higher taxes or to high employment deficits with their inflationary
consequences.
Nowhere are these tradeoffs so evident as in our social security program and our efforts to provide medical insurance for our people. I
have emphasized the need to maintain a fiscally sound social security
system and repeatedly rejected proposals to fund increased benefits out of
what are called general revenues. The purpose of linking social security
benefits to specially designated taxes is to balance the benefits to one
segment of society with the costs to another segment. Our democratic
processes of government work better when the costs of programs are open
and visible to those who pay them. Funding our social security benefits
through specifically designated payroll taxes strengthens the discipline
that should govern these decisions. Benefits are not costless, and we
should not allow this fact to be submerged in any general revenue funding of the social security system.
Similar pressures are building up with respect to medical care. We
have become concerned, and rightly so, over sharp increases in the cost
of medical care which emphasize the need to improve the efficiency and
effectiveness in the delivery of health care services. These have arisen in
part because the large expansion in health insurance coverage under both
private and public programs has reduced the sensitivity of consumers to
costs and weakened the incentives to achieve efficiencies. Individuals,
businesses, and unions, confronted with the higher costs of private health
insurance have begun to exert curbs on the systems for delivering health
and medical service, and their influence should be salutary. I hope we
will not choose to fund these costs through a comprehensive national
health insurance system, since this will only weaken the incentives for
improvement and efficiency that are now emerging.
These are but two examples of the pressures which threaten to erode
our fiscal processes. We must recognize that making governmental expenditure policy the principal arm of demand management has undesirable consequences. Expenditure programs once in place are
extremely difficult to cut back. The result is a permanent rise in Federal
outlays and the risk of ever-increasing growth in the government relative
to the private sector. As the experience of other countries forcibly illustrates, this is a dangerous path. It weakens incentives, reduces efficiency,
leads to lagging standards of living, and carries inevitable risks of inflation. It is much better to provide fiscal adjustments through tax reductions than through Federal spending programs.
The solid improvement of this year means continued progress toward
a better life for all Americans. Problems will always remain, but the future is bright with opportunities to continue strengthening our economy.
Improvement is part of the American way of life, but we must recognize
that few problems, when viewed realistically, lend themselves to quick
and easy solution. Our policies must take into account the full costs and
10
lasting implications of the changes we make today for whatever worthwhile reason. If they attack symptoms rather than causes, policies will be
ineffective and may even preclude the very goals which we seek. Enduring improvement in the economic welfare of the American people
requires that the courses we embark on to meet today's problems will
also bring us closer to our more distant goals and aspirations.
January 18, 1977
11
THE ANNUAL REPORT
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
224-250 O - 77 - 2
13
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,
Washington, D.C., January 14,1977.
T H E PRESIDENT:
SIR: The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its Annual
Report, January 1977, in accordance with Section 4(c) (2) of the Employment Act of 1946.
Respectfully,
ALAN GREENSPAN,
Chairman.
BURTON G.
15
MALKIEL.
CONTENTS
Page
CHAPTER 1. ECONOMIC POLICY AND OUTLOOK
General Policy Principles
Economic Policy for 1977
Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy
Energy Policy
The Outlook
Private Consumption
Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Housing Starts and Residential Investment
Inventory Investment
Net Exports
Government Purchases
Labor Force and Unemployment
Inflation
Productivity Growth and Resource Utilization
The Productivity Slowdown, 1966-76
The Full-Employment Unemployment Rate
Growth in Potential Output
Policy Implications
CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIC REVIEW OF 1976
Demand and Output
Personal Consumption
Business Fixed Investment
Inventory Investment
Housing and Residential Investment
Government Purchases
Net Exports
Prices, Wages, and Profits
Prices
Wages
Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Corporate Profitability
Government Budgets and Fiscal Policy
Federal Expenditures and the Shortfall
Tax Legislation and Federal Receipts
The Fiscal Balances
The New Congressional Budget Process
17
23
25
31
31
33
35
36
37
37
38
38
39
39
41
41
45
45
48
52
56
58
58
59
61
62
62
63
64
64
64
66
68
68
69
70
74
76
77
CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIC REVIEW OF 1976—Continued
Monetary Policy and Financial Markets
Growth of the Monetary Aggregates
Federal Reserve Tolerance Ranges for Monetary Growth
Interest Rates
Other Financial Developments
Employment, Unemployment, and Income Transfer Programs.
Employment
Unemployment
Labor Force Participation
Income Transfer Programs
Energy Developments
Consumption
Production
Imports
Prices
Agricultural Developments
Commodity Markets and Food Prices
Farm Income
Farm and Food Policy
CHAPTER 3. T H E WORLD ECONOMY IN 1976
Page
78
78
80
81
82
84
84
85
86
87
90
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
100
The Demand Situation
Demand and Output in Major Industrial Countries
General Demand Trends
Public Sector Deficits
The External Sector
Economic Outlook and Government Policies
Stabilization Policy and Exchange Rate Policy
Current Account Positions and Financing
OECD Current Account Positions
OPEC Surpluses
Non-Oil LDC's
Exchange Rate Changes
International Financial Markets
Official Financing
Adequacy of Official Financial Resources
101
102
109
Ill
113
118
119
124
124
126
126
127
128
130
132
North-South Economic Relations
133
CHAPTER 4. POLICIES T O INCREASE SUPPLY
Structural and Induced Unemployment
Frictional and Cyclical Unemployment
Induced Unemployment and Unemployment Compensation
Structural Unemployment
Employment Tax Credit
Summary
18
136
136
137
137
139
144
145
CHAPTER 4. POLICIES T O INCREASE SUPPLY—Continued
Government Regulation
Regulated Price Above Market Price . . . . - *
Regulated Price Below Market Price
Regulations That Directly Affect Cost
Implementing Regulatory Reform
Summary
Agricultural Policy
The Movement to Market-Oriented Farm Programs
The Threat to Market-Oriented Policies
The Future of Market-Oriented Policies
Tax Policies for Capital Formation
Investment Tax Credit
Tax Integration
Policies To Stimulate Saving
Page
146
148
151
153
156
157
158
158
159
160
162
163
166
168
APPENDIXES :
A. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of
Economic Advisers During 1976
B. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, and
Production
List of Tables and Charts
Tables
1. The Market Value and the Replacement Cost of Net Assets
of Nonfmancial Corporations, 1960-76
2. Projected Growth Rates of Monetary Aggregates, 1977
3. Calendar of Major Private Nonfarm Collective Bargaining
Activity, 1977
4. Civilian Unemployment Rates by Age, Sex, and Reason for
Unemployment, 1973
5. Civilian Unemployment Rates for Selected Groups, 1956,
1965, and 1973
6. Potential and Actual Gross National Product, 1952-76
7. Changes in Gross National Product in Constant (1972) Dollars,
1975-76
8. Growth of Real Consumption Expenditures and Real Disposable Personal Income, 1975-76
9. Changes in Plant and Equipment Expenditures, 1974-76
10. Changes in Selected Price Measures, 1973-76
11. Changes in Labor Costs and Productivity in the Private Nonfarm Business Sector, 1974-76
12. Changes in Major Collective Bargaining Settlements, 1974-76. .
13. Output, Profits, Net Interest, and Profit Measures of Nonfinancial Corporate Business, 1960-76
19
171
181
29
34
42
49
50
54
59
60
61
65
66
67
69
List of Tables and Charts—Continued
Tables—Continued
Page
14. Comparison of Projected and Actual Federal Expenditures,
National Income and Product Accounts, Fiscal Years
1970-76
15. Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures, National
Income and Product Accounts, Calendai Years 1975-76
16. Federal Expenditure Shortfall, National Income and Product
Accounts, Calendar Year 1976
17. Reconciliation of Estimates of Federal Expenditure Shortfall,
Unified Budget and National Income and Product Accounts,
Fiscal Year 1976 and Transition Quarter
18. Actual and Full-Employment Federal and State and Local
Government Receipts and Expenditures, National Income
and Product Accounts Basis, Calendar Years 1970-76
19. Projected and Actual Growth Rates of Monetary Aggregates,
1975-76
20. Funds Raised in Credit Markets by Nonfinancial Sectors,
1971-76
21. Labor Market Indicators, 1974-76
22. Income Transfer Programs, 1974-76
23. Changes in Energy Consumption and Relevant Economic
Indicators by Final Consumption Sector, 1950-76
24. Changes in Consumer Prices of Energy Items, 1966-76
25. Real Income Per Farm and Per Capita Disposable Personal
Farm Income as Percent of Nonfarm Income, 1961-75. . . .
26. Personal or Household Saving Rates in Selected Industrial
Countries, 1965-76
27. Changes in Industrial Production in Selected Industrial
Countries, 1975-76
28. Private and Public Employment in Selected Industrial Countries, 1960-75
29. Export Shares in Trade in Manufactures of 11 Industrial
Countries, 1966-76
30. Current Account Balances for OECD, OPEC, and Other
Countries, 1973-77
31. Current Account Balances for OECD Countries, 1974-76
32. Estimated Disposition of OPEC Investible Surplus, 1974-76.. .
33. Borrowing in International Capital Markets, 1974-76
34. Civilian Unemployment Rates Under Alternative Definitions
by Age and Sex, 1973
35. Change in After-Tax Internal Rate of Return Under Present 10
Percent Investment Tax Credit, All Businesses
20
70
71
72
73
76
81
83
84
88
91
94
97
102
103
112
115
124
125
127
129
140
165
List of Tables and Charts—Continued
Charts
Page
1. Relation of Real Business Fixed Investment to Real GNP
2. Ratio of Market Value of Nonfinancial Corporations to Replacement Cost of Net Assets
3. Productivity in the Private Business Economy
4. Gross National Product, Actual and Potential
5. Growth in Money Stock
6. Interest Rates
7. Exchange Rates for Selected Industrial Countries
8. Interest Rates in Selected Industrial Countries
21
27
30
46
55
79
82
116
120
CHAPTER 1
Economic Policy and Outlook
T
HE U.S. ECONOMIC RECOVERY is now almost 2 years old. In
1976 real gross national product (GNP) rose by 6.2 percent, and employment increased by almost 3 million persons. Although the pattern of
real GNP growth during 1976 was more erratic than had been anticipated,
showing rapid growth in the first quarter followed by more moderate gains
in subsequent quarters, the rise in real GNP for the year as a whole was
about what had been projected a year ago. The growth of production and
employment for 1976 was accompanied by a further significant moderation of the inflation rate. The average annual rate of change in the GNP
deflator was 5 percent over the 4 quarters of 1976 compared with a 7 percent average in 1975.
The unemployment rate declined by almost 1 percentage point from 1975
to 1976, but it is still much too high and must be reduced further. The 3.2
percent increase in employment in 1976 indicates that progress is being made
in alleviating the economic and social hardships remaining from the recession. Owing to the combination of secular and cyclical increases in labor
force participation rates and in the growth of the working-age population,
the labor force grew by 2.3 percent in 1976. This rapid growth of the labor
force means that jobs must be created at a fast pace in order to reduce
the rate of unemployment.
A continuation of rapid employment and real income gains will require
a strong growth in private investment demand in the years ahead. Little
extra impetus to the economic expansion will be forthcoming from inventory investment and personal consumption, because inventories already
have risen and saving rates have dropped closer to normal levels. Although
business fixed investment has begun to recover from the low levels of the
recession, its growth has been slower than in past recoveries. Without a
sharper upturn in investment the expansionary momentum, already slower
in the second half of last year, cannot easily be maintained. Even if final
sales growth could be bolstered without a strong recovery of business fixed
investment, the implied lesser growth of productive capital would not be
sufficient to provide new jobs at a faster rate in the future without a slower
growth of productivity and real wages.
In our 1976 Report we indicated that business fixed investment would
have to account for approximately 12 percent of GNP during the last half
23
of the 1970s if the Nation is to achieve full employment by 1980, meet specified productivity and environmental objectives, and attain greater independence in regard to energy. While it was not suggested that economic equilibrium cannot be attained under many other sets of conditions, the social
and economic strains of adjusting to a slower and less widely shared improvement in living standards seem likely to become severe if we continue
to fall very far short of this ratio. Business fixed investment in 1976 was less
than 10 percent of GNP, and even with the improvement anticipated this
year the share is likely to remain below 10 percent in 1977. The momentum
of the recovery must be maintained in the near term through measures which
foster growing business confidence and which support stable economic
growth and decelerating inflation. If not, a slow growth of capital formation may create capacity limitations which could stall the expansion before
acceptably low levels of unemployment are reached.
To provide support for an economic expansion strong enough to effect a
substantial reduction in unemployment without at the same time jeopardizing the progress achieved so far in containing inflation, the President has
recommended a permanent reduction in personal and business taxes beginning this year. The purpose of these measures is to further the growth of
disposable income, which has been eroded in part by inflation-induced increases in taxes, and to provide more incentives to investment spending. The
continuing diminution of inflation during the past year indicates that such
tax reductions to promote the growth of demand are consistent with the
goal of sustainable noninflationary growth—if they are accompanied by
steps to restrain the growth of Federal expenditures in future years. To help
consolidate our progress in curbing inflation, the President has proposed a
budget which provides for a slowing of the growth in Federal outlays in
1978 and beyond. Unless surpluses can eventually be achieved in the Federal
budget at high levels of employment, it may be difficult to increase the share
of investment in GNP and maintain the growth of the Nation's productive
capacity.
With the help of these policies the economic recovery is expected to continue in 1977. Real GNP is expected to be 5 to 5 / 2 percent higher than in
1976, and its rate of growth should average between 5j/i and 6 percent
during the 4 quarters of 1977. Such growth will produce further gains
in employment. But unless labor force growth decelerates significantly from
the current high rates, the decline in the unemployment rate is likely to be
modest. In any event, unemployment will still be unacceptably high during
the year. If we are to eliminate the economic loss and hardship associated
with idle resources, economic growth in 1978 and beyond must continue
to proceed at a more rapid pace than the longer-run rate of growth of potential output. We do not anticipate that these policies will lead to an increase in
the underlying rate of inflation. Indeed, if wage settlements continue to
moderate, further progress in reducing inflation could be possible in this
year and in future years.
24
GENERAL POLICY PRINCIPLES
To assure a sustained expansion, four general principles should guide the
formulation of economic policies over the next several years. Economic stimulus, where needed, should be provided by tax reduction rather than by increases in government spending. Tax reduction should be permanent rather
than in the form of a temporary rebate. Policy initiatives should be balanced
between measures directed toward consumption and those aimed at increasing business fixed investment. Economic policy should aim for a steady
economic expansion in which the components of aggregate demand are in
balance.
1. Stimulus should be provided by tax reduction rather than by increases
in government spending. Rising government purchases of goods and services
first increase income and employment in the areas that produce the increased output demanded by government. The visibility and strength of
these first-round effects account for much of the political support for increased spending. A number of serious difficulties arise, however, when government expenditures are used as a tool of stabilization policy.
Our experience has been that under existing institutional arrangements
the startup time for many spending programs can be quite long; this is
particularly true of the large construction projects which are considered by
many to be useful instruments of countercyclical fiscal policy. The danger
is that the economic impact of new spending programs will not be felt when
it is most needed and will then outlast the need for stimulus. In addition,
when restraint rather than continued stimulus becomes desirable, it may be
politically difficult to cut these programs. As a result, a fiscal policy which
stimulates expansion primarily through increases in government purchases
may risk overstimulating the expansion at a later stage. Another difficulty
is that frictional inefficiencies arise from manipulating the level of government expenditures for stabilization purposes. Each time a government program is changed, costs are incurred as the private sector is forced to adjust
and reallocate the necessary resources. And in some cases the rules and regulations associated with the enactment of these programs may necessitate
widening government interference in the private sector.
Similar dangers exist with income maintenance and support programs.
These programs are essential to relieve the economic hardships associated
with unemployment. But we must be careful that changes in programs
designed to deal with cyclical contingencies do not end by permanently
increasing Federal payments, the number of beneficiaries, and the size of
the individual benefits. Such a result would reduce the growth of resources
available to the private sector; and the higher marginal tax rates eventually
required to finance these expenditures may lower incentives to work and
invest, thereby hindering the growth of our aggregate supply capabilities and
heightening inflationary pressures. An analysis of some special job creation
programs is provided in Chapter 4 of this Report.
25
2. Tax reduction should be permanent rather than in the form of a
temporary rebate. The primary objectives of tax reduction in the current
situation should be to provide relief from the inflation-induced increases in
real tax burdens and to support a lasting economic expansion. Because consumers normally adjust expenditures to their "permanent" or long-run
income, a lasting reduction in personal taxes which raises both current and
future after-tax income should yield a sustained rise in consumer spending,
as happened following the permanent tax reduction in 1964. Sustained
growth in consumer spending is required to promote a durable economic
expansion.
On the other hand, any stimulative effect that a temporary tax rebate
may have on consumer spending will diminish quickly. For example, a substantial increase in expenditures for durables did occur after the payment
of the 1975 rebate. Part of the effect of such a one-time windfall, however,
may have been to shift some expenditures to the present that had been
planned for a later time, with the result that spending would be correspondingly lower in subsequent periods. This phenomenon may be the
reason for the very low rates of increase in purchases of consumer durables
in the last 3 quarters of 1976. Such fluctuations in the movements of demand
contribute to uncertainty about fiscal policy and damage the prospects for
steady growth. Thus temporary tax rebates are not consistent with the
objective of sustaining an economic expansion. While they may be useful in
helping to bring about a reversal of generally declining demands during a
recession, they are not consistent with the maintenance of an expansion of
demand that is already under way.
Moreover transitory increases in consumer spending associated with temporary tax cuts are not likely to stimulate investment as much as more permanent increases in demand would do. Business firms may realize that an
expansion in sales will not last if the increase is apparently due to a temporary
reduction in taxes and will have less incentive to expand capacity than if they
expect a more sustained rise in sales. A permanent reduction in income
taxes has a more lasting impact on household consumption demand and
consequently on business firms' willingness to invest in productive capital.
It is sometimes argued that tax cuts should be temporary in order to maintain a permanent revenue base for future spending programs. A strong
and more certain growth in 1977 and beyond, however, is ultimately the
key to whether resources will become available to support these expenditures.
Moreover taxes automatically increase faster than income over time because of the combined effects exerted by inflation, real growth, and our
graduated tax rate structure. Unless permanent reductions are made from
time to time, taxes will account for an ever larger share of taxable income.
Thus there is little danger that a permanent tax reduction will destroy
the revenue base for the Federal Government. Indeed, another fear may
be more realistic: if taxes are not reduced periodically we run the risk of
allowing the tax burden to rise over time and thus inhibit the growth of
demand in the private sec cor.
26
3. Economic initiatives should be balanced between measures to stimulate
consumption and those designed to increase business investment. We noted
above that investment must grow somewhat faster than GNP for some
years to achieve long-run goals of employment and income growth. It is
therefore essential that economic policy create an environment which will
encourage business investment. Clearly, investment spending will be stimulated by substantial increases in final sales, which tend to reduce excess
capacity and increase expected profitability. A cut in personal income taxes
which sustains real consumption growth will thus encourage investment.
However, in the current economic environment we believe this consumption-induced investment growth can usefully be augmented by direct stimulus to private investment. Consumption-oriented growth in demand will
not necessarily bring aggregate investment to the levels needed to offset the
inadequate investment of the past few years. On the contrary, direct stimulus may be necessary to counteract forces which have deterred investment.
Chart 1 shows that business fixed investment currently accounts for a
relatively low proportion of GNP, approximating the percentage of the early
1960s. Even with substantial increases in business fixed investment next
year this ratio will remain under 10 percent and far below the ratios we
believe are desirable. Furthermore the slow growth of labor productivity,
analyzed later in this chapter, does not suggest that productive capital has
become relatively more abundant over the last decade. The policy response
to comparable problems in the early 1960s was to stimulate investment
directly with such measures as a reduction in corporate tax rates.
Chart 1
Relation of Real Business Fixed
Investment to Real GNP
PERCENT OF REAL GNP
11.5
11.0 h
I
1960
1
T
1962
i
l
1964
l
I
1966
I
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
1
1968
27
I
1970
1972
1974 1976
A number of factors may have prevented the restoration of business confidence and hence restrained investment growth. Wage and price controls
are still a recent memory, and fears of a reacceleration of inflation have not
been completely dispelled. Recollections of the severe 1974-75 recession may
also restrain business confidence. Because fears of a renewed inflationrecession cycle may encourage businesses to increase liquidity rather than
invest in plant and equipment, confidence must be rebuilt before sales
growth will be translated into higher capital outlays.
Laws and regulations to provide necessary protection for the environment
also create costs and uncertainties. Not only does the spread of regulations
raise production costs, but long-run cost and profit calculations are made less
certain because of the possibility of future changes in regulations. For instance, if' a change in environmental laws may affect the operations of a new
plant, then the risk associated with building this plant is correspondingly
increased. The impact is more severe on longer-lived investments which
require longer commitments with less flexibility once they are made.
It is of course very difficult to prove that a decline in business confidence
or an increase in risk premiums is responsible for the failure of investment
to rise as much as might have been expected during the current recovery.
This difficulty results partly from our inability to directly measure the uncertainty or accurately assess the expectational factors and the environment
within which long-term investment decisions are made. Most evidence for
the view that business confidence remains poor is qualitative and involves
a degree of casual empiricism. One quantitative indicator of the expectations affecting business investment is the market value of a corporation's
stocks and of net interest-bearing debt relative to the replacement cost of
its assets. If, for example, assets are valued in the market significantly above
their replacement cost, corporations will be encouraged to invest in new
equipment and thereby create capital gains for the owners of their securities. On the other hand, if assets are valued below their replacement cost/
corporations which sell new securities to buy new capital goods may be
creating capital losses for their security holders. In the latter case we can
infer that the cost of capital has risen relative to the average profitability
of past investment projects and that new investment will be discouraged.
Of course, at the margin the expected rate of return on a significant number
of potential new investments will remain above the cost of capital, even
though existing assets on average are valued below their replacement cost.
Thus even if the market value of a firm fell below the replacement cost of
its assets this would not mean the end of investment incentives. It would be
especially inappropriate to draw such conclusions from estimated aggregates
composed of heterogeneous corporations.
Nevertheless it is probably safe to infer that the almost continuous decline
in the ratio of the market value of nonfmancial corporations to the replacement cost of their assets during the last few years (Table 1 and Chart 2) is an
indication that investment incentives are much lower currently than in the
28
TABLE 1.—The market value and the replacement cost of net assets of nonfinancial
corporations, 1960-76
Replacement cost of net assets
Market value
Year
Total
Interestbearing
debt*
Equity 2
Total
Net noninterestbearing
financial
assets 3
Net stock
of depreciable
fixed
assets and
inventories 3
Ratio of
market
value to
replacement cost
of net
assets
Ratio of
real
business
fixed
investment to
real GNP
Billions of dollars
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
435.6
507.9
503.9
581.0
656.6
103.8
114.8
126.0
136.7
147.9
331.8
393.1
378.0
444.2
508.7
427.0
442.9
460.9
482.2
507.2
61.4
67.3
73.3
78.5
83.0
365.6
375.6
387.6
403.7
424.2
020
147
093
205
295
0.090
.087
.089
.088
.093
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
737.5
712.9
789.8
893.0
881.9
162.9
180.4
200.0
217.8
243.1
574.7
532.4
589.9
675.3
638.8
541.7
590.8
649.9
711.0
782.9
87.2
91.8
100.7
109.3
117.0
454.5
499.0
549.2
601.7
665.9
361
207
215
256
126
.103
.108
.103
.103
.106
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
787.1
934.2
093.1
166.1
106.5
267.7
296.8
330.3
386.1
428.2
519.4
637.4
762.8
780.0
678.3
858.1
925.3
1,002.5
1,126.4
1,319.8
126.4
135.9
149.6
166.3
181.8
731.7
789.4
852.9
960.1
1,138.0
917
010
090
034
.838
.102
.098
.100
.106
.106
,113.1
, 326.2
439.4
470.0
673.8
856.2
1, 494.5
1,601.4
198.3
212.3
1, 296.2
1,389.1
.745
.828
.093
.091
1975...
1976«_.
i Market value of net interest-bearing debt of nonfinancial corporations (NFCs) adjusted from face value by assuming
a maturity of 5 years and discounting a stream of coupon payments equal to the net interest paid by NFCs. The discount
rate is assumed to equal Moody's Baa corporate bond yield.
* Dividends of NFCs divided by the dividend/price ratio of Standard & Poor's composite index of 500 common stocks.
3 Average of year-end values.
* Preliminary.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Council of Economic Advisers (based on data from various sources).
second half of the 1960s. Even allowing for the possibility that the high
values of the ratio in the 1960s reflected some temporary overconfidence in
the evaluation of future returns, the significant downward trend is an indicator that a lack of confidence may be a factor holding back long-term
investment commitments now. One inference from this evidence is that a
direct stimulus to investment, such as a corporate tax reduction would
provide, could hasten the restoration of business confidence and be useful to
supplement the normal accelerator mechanism. Another is that measures
which would help reduce the risks of substantial changes in the regulatory
climate over the normal life of fixed assets would also raise investment.
Such measures would help to offset the uncertainties which are still restraining investment and would make up for the slow growth of productive
capital in the past few years.
4. Policy should aim at a steady expansion with balance among the components of aggregate demand. An important policy decision in the years
ahead concerns the appropriate amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to
sustain the recovery. In the effort to achieve continued progress toward
full employment we must not create inherently unstable and ultimately
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
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Federal Reserve BankO - St.- Louis
29
Chart 2
Ratio of Market Value of Nonfinancial
Corporations to Replacement Cost of
Net Assets
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974 1976
SOURCE: COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (BASED ON DATA FROM VARIOUS SOURCES).
counterproductive conditions along the way. With a high inflation rate and
many uncertainties still remaining to hamper the economy, stimulus which
aims for a balanced composition of demand and a steady pace will provide
the safest and surest path of advance. A steady recovery allows aggregate production to expand gradually toward full capacity, thereby avoiding such
imbalances as overaccumulation of inventories, shortages of strategic commodities, or insufficient accumulation of fixed capital. Moreover, if unexpected shortages or demand deficiencies begin to arise, policy can react
before either inflationary or deflationary pressures become too severe. In this
way the possibility of renewed instabilities is minimized. In turn the improved
outlook should help restore confidence, encourage investment, and assure
that increases in demand raise employment rather than inflation rates.
Evidence showing the impact of inflation and expectations of inflation
on business decisions is very limited. Nevertheless an overly rapid expansion
could generate a rise in inflationary expectations which might restrain
capital accumulation and threaten to cut off the expansion before full
employment is reached. In the short run, increases in inflation may appear
to stimulate investment because of delays in the upward adjustment of
market interest rates and the estimates of the risk associated with inflation.
However, high rates of inflation may be associated with high variability
in individual prices. If this is so, the expected variance of future returns
30
on investment would increase with inflation, thereby adding a risk premium
to the rate of return required to undertake new investment projects. Thus
the cost-price uncertainties which could be associated with high inflation
because of larger, more frequent, and less predictable changes in relative
prices may eventually discourage business spending. In the long run the
effect of inflation may be negative as market interest rates adjust to offset
the inflation stimulus and only the negative effect of greater uncertainty
remains.
Another factor which will call for moderation at a later stage if the
expansion is to be sustainable is the current uncertainty about the level of
potential output in the U.S. economy and the likelihood that the potential
has been growing at a lower rate in the 1970s than during most of the 1960s.
There is also some uncertainty about the unemployment rate that should
be used to represent a constant degree of tightness in the labor market at
full employment either now or in the future. These uncertainties suggest
the wisdom of proceeding with a greater degree of caution in our return
to full employment than was previously thought necessary. (These and other
factors that bear on long-run economic growth are discussed more fully
later in this chapter.
International considerations provide a further reason for maintaining a
steady recovery. If a too rapid expansion at home is accompanied by rapid
expansions followed by bottlenecks in other major industrial countries,
inflationary forces can be intensified by worldwide excess demand for
strategic commodities. On the other hand, in a situation where the world's
economic development is lagging, it is important that U.S. growth should
not be so slow as to contribute to sluggishness in world trade. This would
reinforce rather than alleviate demand deficiencies and increase the risk of
another recession.
ECONOMIC POLICY FOR 1977
FISCAL POLICY
With these general principles in mind, the President has proposed a
permanent tax cut for individuals and corporations which will reduce tax
liabilities by about $12.5 billion in calendar 1977. The largest part of
the tax cut, $10 billion, would go to individuals in the form of higher personal exemptions, an increase in the low-income allowance, and lower tax
rates. The rest would go to corporations in the form of a 2 percentage point
reduction in the corporate income tax rate. Federal expenditures on a
national income and product accounts (NIPA) basis are expected to be
$429 billion in 1977. This will yield an actual deficit of $57 billion
for the year and a decline in the full-employment surplus of $13 billion in 1977. As private sector spending continues to expand, it is expected
that the Federal deficit will gradually diminish to make room for the necessary private savings flows to finance new capital formation.
31
The proposed $10-billion permanent reduction in personal income taxes
would be implemented by an increase in the individual exemption from $750
to $1,000, an increase in the low-income allowance to $1,800 for single persons and $2,500 for joint returns, and a reduction in rates in the lower- and
middle-income brackets. Furthermore, the temporary tax credits first enacted
in 1975 would be repealed. These changes would offset the increase in the
real tax burden of middle-income families resulting from the high inflation
rates of recent years. The reduction in personal taxes would lead to a permanent increase in after-tax income and a more confident outlook in the household sector, both of which should significantly boost consumer spending in
the year ahead. By creating stronger markets and raising the rate of capacity
utilization, the personal tax cut would also indirectly stimulate additional
investment.
The proposed reduction in the corporate income tax rate from 48 percent
to 46 percent would reduce corporate tax liabilities by about $2.5 billion in
1977. It would thus improve the net return on all capital assets and enlarge
the flow of internal funds to finance new projects. The supply of savings has
been adequate since the recovery began in 1975; but as the expansion proceeds and pressure on capacity builds, the increased cash flow would be an
important source of finance for new investment. The tax cut would also
have a beneficial effect on expectations in the business community, possibly
yielding further gains in investment spending. The President is also renewing
several previous recommendations to improve business profitability: a program of accelerated depreciation for newly installed plant and equipment in
areas of high unemployment; the partial integration of corporate and personal income taxes over a period of years, beginning in 1978, to offset the
double tax on corporate earnings; and permanent extensions of the 10 percent
investment tax credit, the 20 percent tax on the first $25,000 of corporate
income, and the $50,000 corporate surtax exemption.
As noted in the 1963 Economic Report of the President, at a time when
there was a similar concern that stagnating investment could damage the
prospects for long-term growth:
. . . it is essential to our employment and growth objectives . . . that
we stimulate more rapid expansion and modernization of America's
productive facilities. . . . Investment in private plant and equipment
is a principal source of long-term gains in productivity. . . . A high rate
of investment is needed to equip our growing labor force with better and
more modern equipment. . . . The investment needed to gain our
growth objectives will be achieved only if we eliminate economic
slack—only if we strengthen demand and broaden incentives to take
risks.
The tax program outlined in this Report is designed to achieve these same
objectives in 1977 and beyond. If business confidence does not improve and
if investment does not begin to grow rapidly, additional stimulative measures
for investment should be considered in the future.
32
MONETARY POLICY
The Federal Reserve Board has projected growth ranges for the three
major money supply measures through the third quarter of 1977. Barring
unforeseen changes in financial conditions, monetary growth within these
ranges should be sufficient to finance continued economic expansion without
risking a resurgence of inflation. However, the unusual uncertainties which
have recently clouded the relationship between monetary growth—especially
Mi growth—and nominal GNP will require special caution and adaptability in setting, and revising if necessary, the growth ranges in the near
future.
The specific ranges which have been set for the year ending in the third
quarter of 1977 are 4 / 2 to 6/ 2 percent for Mi, 7]/2 to 10 percent for M 2 ,
and 9 to 11 l/i percent for M 3 . The projected ranges for Mi reflect a projected
structural shift in the growth of demand for this aggregate. The Federal
Reserve has estimated that a number of regulatory and technological
changes encouraging the use of alternatives to demand deposits for transactions will reduce the demand for Mi in 1977. Quantitatively the most
significant of these changes appear to be regulations permitting the use of
savings deposits by businesses and State and local governments, the growing
use of negotiable orders of withdrawal (NOW) savings accounts, which can
provide the equivalent of checking services, and the use of telephonic transfers of funds from savings to checking accounts.
To the extent that these developments will continue to reduce the growth
of demand for Mi in 1977 the announced ranges for M x growth are consistent with a monetary policy that will encourage a stable economic recovery.
If the effects of these changes are forecast correctly, then a sustained growth
of Mi beyond the new upper boundary would be more than is needed to
finance the recovery, and hence it might overstimulate the economy and
carry a risk of renewed inflation. However, if these structural changes cease
to have this expected negative effect on M x demand, then a reconsideration
of the ranges would be necessary to ensure that the growth in Mi is consistent with a continuation of the recovery. In interpreting the impact of
these structural changes it is important to recognize that a further slowdown
in the economic recovery could be a direct cause of slower Mx growth. If so,
it would be inappropriate to adjust the growth range downward. A sustained rather than a reduced Mi growth would be an important stabilizing
influence, offsetting the weakness in aggregate demand. Because the current
forecast of the structural change in Mi demand is necessarily imprecise,
financial developments must be closely monitored to determine the underlying causes of observed monetary growth trends.
This is not to say that the current uncertainties in the demand for Mi
suggest an abandonment of monetary growth ranges in favor of market
interest rates or other money market indicators. The ranges directly act to
dampen inflationary expectations by indicating a commitment to a monetary policy consistent with long-run price stability. Moreover interest rates
33
alone cannot serve as a guide to monetary policy, especially during periods
of high and variable inflation rates. A monetary policy which attempts
to hold market interest rates steady for too long would be destabilizing. In
the face of an unanticipated and excessive economic boom, such a policy
would result in a rapid monetary expansion which would reinforce the
boom and prevent the moderating effect of a rise in interest rates. On the
other hand, if an unnoticed fall in inflationary expectations developed, a
policy which stabilizes market interest rates would effectively raise real rates
and be contractionary. Properly interpreted, however, interest rates as well
as other economic variables, such as business investment, should be useful
in projecting and revising the monetary growth ranges. Because a strong
growth in the capital stock is crucial both for the near-term economic expansion and for the long-run sustainability of income growth, policy must
be flexible enough to minimize the risk of not providing sufficient credit
for long-term productive investment.
The upper boundary for M2 and M 3 growth has been increased by onehalf of 1 percentage point since the previous Federal Reserve growth projection (Table 2), and this may provide some additional flexibility. One of
TABLE 2.—Projected growth rates of monetary aggregates, 1977
Mi
M2
4^-7
4^-7
Period
7^-10
M3
Range of percent change from a year earlier*:
1977:1
II
Ill
1
73^-10
9-12
9-11
Range of percent changes in Mi, M2, and M3 forecast by Federal Reserve for the period.
Note.—Mi is currency plus demand deposits; M2 is Mi plus time deposits at commercial banks other than
large negotiable certificates of deposit; and M3 is M 2 plus deposits at nonbank thrift innstitutions.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
the serious problems facing the monetary authorities is the choice of an
appropriate measure of the money supply. Theoretical or empirical evidence
does not indicate the clear superiority of any one of the measures, and at
times they give conflicting indications. Throughout much of 1976, Mi
growth was near the lower boundary of its range and M 2 growth near the
upper boundary. Until there is a reversal of these diverse patterns, the increase in the upper boundary for M2 may permit a slightly faster growth
of both aggregates if this is necessary to finance the recovery.
Our forecast for nominal GNP growth for the year ending in the third
quarter of 1977 is about 11 percent. Along with these projected monetary
growth ranges it implies that the velocity of Mi—the ratio of GNP to Mi—
will increase by 4l/2 to 6^/2 percent. For the 4 quarters of 1976, Mx velocity
growth was 4.5 percent. Thus even if Ma grows near the upper boundary of
its range, velocity growth in 1977 will be about the same as in 1976. Some
reduction in velocity growth normally occurs in the advanced stages of
economic recoveries, especially during periods of slower economic growth
34
like the latter part of 1976. The 4 / 2 percent velocity growth of Mi is
unusually large and presupposes a continued structural shift in M x demand.
The projections also imply that the velocity of M 2 will increase by 1 to 3/2
percent over the year ending in the third quarter of 1977. This compares
with a decline in M 2 velocity over the 4 quarters of 1976. Given our GNP
forecasts, velocity gains closer to the larger of the above estimates—6j/s> and
3/2 percent for Mi and M 2 velocity respectively—would be unusual under
any circumstances, and could generate a substantial increase in interest rates,
unless the shift in money demand is even larger than last year.
For the longer run, fiscal policy will have to absorb proportionately
more of the burden of restraint than monetary policy, if we are to meet
our capital growth needs. In 1975 the Federal deficit absorbed 40 percent
of the net funds raised in U.S. credit markets, and although the proportion
was reduced to 30 percent in the first 3 quarters of 1976 it is not expected to
be reduced further in 1977. This has not yet constrained private finance
because overall credit needs have been low. As the borrowing requirements
for private investment grow in the years ahead, however, fiscal stimulus will
have to be lessened in order to release funds to meet these needs. Smaller
Federal deficits, and eventually surpluses, will permit a less restrictive
monetary policy with easier conditions in the credit market. In the years
ahead aggregate demand management must rely less on consumptionoriented fiscal policy for stimulus, in order that monetary policy, which
generally has a disproportionate effect on investment, is not forced to take
all the burden of restraining inflationary forces.
ENERGY POLICY
Assurance of sufficient supplies of energy resources will be required to
sustain a steady economic expansion. To promote this end the President has
recommended an energy program which stresses expanded domestic energy
production and increased utilization of our most abundant resources, particularly coal. The key feature of this program is the phased elimination of
controls on prices of natural gas and oil. While such a change would entail
higher prices for these products in the near term, it would help to ensure
that the U.S. economy is less vulnerable to sudden changes in the availability
and cost of imported resources in coming years. Moreover the most efficient
production and allocation of the economy's resources, which would be
encouraged by decontrol, would increase our aggregate supply capabilities
and reduce inflationary pressures in the longer run.
Higher prices for oil and natural gas in the short run would reduce the
relative share of imported oil and gas in total energy consumption. The
higher prices would also tend to shift fuel use away from oil and natural gas
in favor of coal, and this would further moderate the economic impact of
price increases by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC). The phased elimination of price controls on natural gas would
help remove the risk that a period of severe cold weather could disrupt the
35
economic recovery by forcing a random, unscheduled closing of factories
owing to curtailment of supplies. Such forced closing did not cause significant
disruptions in 1974 and 1975, when there was excess capacity; but as utilization rates increase during the next 2 years the risk of shortages in manufacturing capacity could become more serious with resulting inflationary
pressures.
The President has also proposed measures to encourage the use of nuclear
power. If they succeed, they will further reduce our dependence on imported
oil and natural gas. Increased funds for general energy development have
also been proposed. While these may contribute little in the near future, in
the longer run the benefits to our energy supply capabilities could be
substantial.
These actions would ease and hasten the adjustment of the economy to the
new energy situation, and they would help to ensure more stable and reliable
energy supplies for the future. The OPEC pricing decisions of December
were a forceful reminder of the Nation's growing need for protection against
foreign moves that affect the price and availability of imported oil. The
proposed measures mean somewhat larger increases in domestic energy
prices in the near term, and they would combine with the upward adjustments of U.S. petroleum prices under the Energy Policy and Conservation
Act and the long overdue upward adjustments in natural gas prices under
the Federal Power Commission (FPG) decisions of 1976. Taken together,
however, these energy price increases would not be great enough to exert a
significant restraining influence upon the expansion.
THE OUTLOOK
The main elements of continued economic growth in the United States
are well established, despite the slowdown which occurred in the second
half of 1976. With the assistance of the monetary and fiscal policies discussed
above, and with continued strength in the private sector, real GNP is expected to rise by 5 to 5^2 percent from 1976 to 1977, and its annual growth
rate is expected to average between 5J/2 and 6 percent over the 4 quarters of
1977. This will permit a further expansion of employment and bring the
rate of unemployment down to nearly 7 percent by year's end. At the same
time, because the recovery over the past 2 years has avoided the excesses
in public and private demand which characterized the previous upturn, the
rate of inflation is not expected to rise above the 5 to 6 percent range.
With a much smaller expected rise in inventory investment compared to
earlier stages of this recovery, the expansion in 1977 will require a strong
growth in final demand. The expected recovery of business fixed investment
will be an essential component of this demand. The proposed reduction in
personal income taxes, which will stimulate a higher rate of real consumption
growth, as well as the reduced corporate tax rate will help to encourage such
an investment recovery. A continued strengthening of residential investment
is also expected to boost the rate of growth in final sales in 1977.
36
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
The growth of real disposable income slowed in the latter half of 1976
but is expected to reaccelerate in 1977 as a result of strong employment
growth, the reduction in personal taxes, and moderate increases in consumer
prices. Because of the slower growth in real disposable income in the latter
half of 1976, the saving rate had fallen to 6 percent in the last quarter. This
rate should rise in early 1977 with the start of the personal tax reductions,
but for the year as a whole the saving rate is not expected to be appreciably
different from the 1976 average of 6% percent. Real consumption growth
for 1977 should therefore approximate the 4 to 5 percent rate expected for
real disposable income.
The growth in consumer spending in 1977 is expected to be most pronounced in the durable goods categories. The combination of a return
to strong and steady real income gains and lower layoff rates should continue to restore the confidence which is essential for accelerated growth
in real expenditures on durable goods. The year-over-year growth in real
purchases of motor vehicles and parts is expected to be about 7-8 percent.
This figure is down substantially from the 23 percent growth in 1^76 but
still represents an important contribution to a continued economic expansion. Another major factor bolstering spending will be the strong growth in
housing completions in 1977, which should stimulate furniture and appliance sales.
NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT
The growth of nonresidential fixed investment in 1976, especially in the
latter part of the year, was low for this stage of recovery, and by the end of
the year the real level was still well below the 1973-74 peak. With the
expected increase in sales growth, and with the reduction in the corporate
tax rate which will begin to affect investment later this year, real business fixed investment is expected to increase by approximately 9 percent
in 1977. The projected rate of investment will provide sufficient capacity
for the year ahead, but the share of investment in GNP will almost certainly
remain below the average of the late 1960s.
Recent surveys of investment anticipation have indicated that current
dollar expenditures in business fixed investment should increase by 11 to 13
percent in 1977. Surveys often underestimate actual new investment in periods of expansion, however, and the recent surveys may not have taken
full account of the effects of the proposed cut in taxes in 1977. An increase
of about 15 percent therefore seems quite possible.
Investment growth in 1977 is likely to be strongest in durable manufacturing, particularly in the automobile sector. Plant and equipment modifications for producing lighter small and intermediate-sized cars as well as for
general modernization appear to be the underlying factors here. Other
sectors where new investment should grow rapidly are nonelectrical
37
machinery and ferrous and nonferrous metals. Investment growth in nondurable manufacturing, except for petroleum refining, and in the commercial sector is expected to be comparatively weak. The sluggishness in the
construction of commercial and office buildings should persist through 1977
owing to overbuilding earlier in the decade.
HOUSING STARTS AND RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT
The housing recovery, which accelerated in the third and fourth quarters
of last year, should continue in 1977 and be an important factor in the growth
of final demand. Total housing starts are expected to average between 1.7
and 1.8 million units this year with approximately 1.3 million single-unit
starts. Since this represents a significant increase over last year, and because
last year's increase was concentrated in the second half of the year, real investment in residential construction is expected to rise by 15 percent in 1977.
The major sources of strength for housing in 1977 will be continued growth
of real disposable income, continued strong flows of funds for mortgage
credit, slightly lower mortgage rates, and some stimulus from programs of
the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
An important influence on residential construction is the availability and
cost of long-term funds for mortgages. Short-term interest rates have declined during the recovery and savings flows to thrift institutions are likely
to remain strong, making funds for mortgages readily available. Moreover
the decline in secondary-market mortgage rates in the latter half of 1976
has begun to bring primary-market mortgage rates down slightly.
Until the latter half of 1976 the recovery in multifamily housing had
been relatively weak. Overbuilding in 1972 and 1973 and continued low
profitability on rental housing had evidently been restraining the construction of multiple-dwelling units. Vacancy rates for rental housing have
finally dropped, however, and are now below the 6 percent average of 1975.
These factors, coupled with the HUD Section 8 lower income housing
assistance program and the $5 billion in Government National Mortgage
Association (GNMA) loan commitments during 1976, should support the
recent recovery in the multifamily sector.
INVENTORY INVESTMENT
The dramatic $21-billion shift from real inventory liquidation in 1975 to
positive accumulation in 1976 was a major reason for the high rate of GNP
growth last year. This year we expect continued growth in inventory investment as demand advances, but the growth will be slower than last year. In
real terms, inventory investment should increase only by about $2 to $4 billion
from 1976 to 1977. In view of some apparently undesired inventory buildup
last year, as well as uncertainty about the outlook for 1977, businesses can
be expected to proceed cautiously in building new stocks.
38
NET EXPORTS
In real terms net exports of goods and services are expected to be slightly
lower in 1977 than in 1976. While the change in real net exports is likely to
be small, the composition of the growth in merchandise exports is expected
to be very different from that in 1976.
During 1977, growth in merchandise exports is expected to be concentrated in the industrial and capital goods categories, with agricultural
exports slightly below their 1976 level. This change in the composition of
exports contrasts with that of last year, when rising agricultural exports
were an important factor. Because exports of industrial and capital goods
have a larger effect on employment than agricultural exports do, the overall economic effects of this shift could be substantial.
Developments on the import side are likely to be dominated by oil imports.
Because of a large oil inventory buildup late in 1976 in anticipation of a
price rise, imports early in 1977 are expected to be relatively low. By midyear they should return to normal levels but should begin to decline again in
the fourth quarter when we project Alaskan oil to become available. The
volume of nonfuel imports is expected to rise fairly smoothly and gradually
throughout the year.
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES
Government purchases are expected to increase rapidly in 1977 following
a year of sluggish growth. Total government purchases of goods and services are projected to rise by about 3/2 percent in real terms, with Federal
spending growing somewhat faster and State and local purchases somewhat
slower than the overall rate. In current dollar terms the President's budget
projects that Federal purchases will rise approximately 12 percent in calendar 1977.
At the State and local level the overall fiscal outlook for 1977 is significantly better than it has been for the last 2 or 3 years. State and local tax
receipts should increase in line with nominal income by some 11 percent.
Federal grants-in-aid—which now account for nearly 25 percent of State and
local receipts—are also expected to grow substantially from 1976 to 1977.
A significant portion of the increase will be for public service jobs, accelerated public works, and other antirecession assistance. In addition, general
revenue sharing has been extended for 4 years at about a $7-billion annual
rate. Thus total State and local government receipts should rise by about 11
percent. Allowing for a temporary increase in surpluses in their operating
accounts (which exclude receipts and expenditures from social insurance
funds) an 8 to 9 percent rate of growth in current dollar purchases in
1977 appears likely. If the inflation rate averages about 6 percent, the
real growth would be between 2 and 3 percent. Indeed, in view of the
unusually small increase in expenditures in 1976, one could reasonably
39
argue that some extra catching up may take place this year, with real
growth reaching the 3 to 4 percent range. On the other hand, the conservative spending behavior from 1976 may carry over into 1977, in which case
real growth could fall below 2 percent.
Looking beyond 1977, the impetus for continued rapid expansion of State
and local purchases is diminishing for several reasons. The growth in the
school-age population has slowed notably, thus reducing the need to build
new schools and hire more teachers. Moreover salaries of State and local
workers have now caught up with those in the private sector. Wages and
salaries account for more than half of total State and local purchases,
and a major reason for the rapid growth of this sector in recent years was
the drive for salary comparability. Now that parity has been achieved, it is
unlikely that the rise in State and local government wage rates will diverge
significantly from the economy-wide trend in wages. Finally, there appears
to be strong sentiment among voters to curb the expansion of State and
local spending.
These considerations point to more modest growth in State and local
real expenditures in the years ahead; and, if inflation rates do not increase,
nominal expenditures should grow at a rate less than the 12 percent average
between 1965 and 1975. With sustained revenue growth, States and localities, taken as a whole, are therefore expected to accumulate rising surpluses.
It is quite possible that those governments with positive operating surpluses
will want to maintain them during the expansion to avoid the possibility of
further tax increases or expenditure cuts during periods of weaker economic
growth. But in the long run there is little reason for these surpluses to rise
strongly, and opportunities may exist in certain jurisdictions to lower taxes.
The one cautionary note to add to this optimistic longer-term outlook
concerns the funding of State and local retirement plans. These plans have
become an important part of the total compensation package of State and
local employees, and benefits are now paid to over 1.7 million individuals.
Benefits have also become exceptionally large in recent years because they
are not subject to a current budget constraint or debt limitation. Most
State and local pension funds are not fully funded, which means that the
assets held by the funds are not sufficient to cover the present value of all
promised benefits. Consequently there is growing concern that some of these
funds—particularly in large cities with a deteriorating economic base—
will eventually become insolvent as current contributions fail to keep up
with benefits. This has already led to legal action by current and prospective
beneficiaries asking that States and localities fund their retirement plans on
a more current basis. At least one of these suits (in Philadelphia) has been
upheld and an additional contribution has been ordered. To the extent
that there is a general move toward current funding, State and local expenditures will have to rise, as will the taxes to finance them. These will be
budgetary increases that do not result in a higher level of current services.
40
LABOR FORGE AND UNEMPLOYMENT
It is expected that the civilian labor force will grow at about 2.5 percent
in 1977 compared with the 2.3 percent average annual rate of growth for
the last decade. The upward trend in the rate of labor force participation by
women should continue and the proportion of young persons in the workingage population should increase. The trend toward earlier retirement, however, is also expected to continue. With real GNP expected to grow by 5 to
5J/2 percent in 1977, a decline in the average unemployment rate for the
year of a little more than one-half a percentage point would be considered
normal. If labor force growth is somewhat higher, however, a slightly smaller
decline is possible. By the end of the year the unemployment rate is expected
to be near 7 percent.
INFLATION
The inflation outlook in 1977 should be heavily influenced by the behavior
of production costs, since the economy is still some distance from the point
where aggregate demand would begin exerting generalized pressure on
capacity. Given the cost increases expected in 1977 and the projected growth
in demand, the rate of inflation is expected to remain in the 5 to 6 percent
range. To the extent that the nonrecurrent changes in food and energy prices
during 1976 brought measured inflation rates below the underlying rates, the
forecast for 1977 represents a moderate slowing of the rate of inflation. To
some degree this slowing is a reflection of the excess supply which still exists
in many sectors of the economy.
Compensation per hour is expected to increase by about ll/i percent,
slightly below the 8 percent increase in 1976. However, productivity
increases are expected to be smaller than in 1976. In the very short run,
productivity shifts are reflected primarily in profit changes. In the longer
run, however, income shares tend to remain relatively constant. With most
of the cyclical gains in labor productivity probably already realized, the
productivity growth rate is expected to be in the 2/2 to 3 percent range this
year. As a result, unit labor costs in the private sector should rise by about
5 percent. Additional improvement in the inflation rate will probably require
a further slowdown in nominal compensation growth. The price of food—
often an erratic component of the total inflation picture—is expected to
increase only modestly in 1977 because of adequate supplies of most farm
products. The rate of increase in energy prices will continue to converge
toward the overall inflation rate in 1977.
1. Wages. The decline in the rate of inflation since late 1974 has had a
moderating effect on the rate of increase in nominal wage demands. This
source of moderation is fragile, however, since fears of a renewed inflationary
spiral and of wage and price guidelines or controls could generate anticipatory wage increases. But assuming that inflationary expectations do not
increase and that the overall rate of inflation is about 5 / 2 percent, the rate of
41
increase in nominal wages in 1977 should be about 7 percent. The translation of wage rate increases into compensation per hour depends on interindustry shifts in employment, changes in the relative proportion of wage
to salary workers, increases in private fringe benefits, and increases in publicly mandated supplements to wages. As noted above, it is estimated that
total compensation per hour of work in the private sector will rise about 7^2
percent in 1977.
Although nearly one-fourth of all civilian workers are members of labor
unions, only about 10 million, or 11 percent of total employees, are under
major contracts covering 1,000 or more workers. Some believe, however, that
wage settlements in these sectors have a disproportionate impact on overall wage developments because of a demonstration effect. Consequently, in
forecasting wages it is useful to examine the collective bargaining schedule
for the year ahead.
The major collective bargaining contracts that expire this year or are
subject to wage renegotiation cover nearly 5 million workers (Table 3). This
year will be the second consecutive year of heavy collective bargaining in the
3-year cycle. The average duration of contracts expiring in 1977 is 33 months.
Thus most of these contracts were negotiated in 1974 or later, after the end
of the Economic Stabilization Program and during a period of high inflation.
The latter led to an expansion of coverage under cost-of-living adjustments
(COLA) and high first-year wage increases. Hence some of the factors that
TABLE 3.—Calendar of major private nonfarm collective bargaining activity, 1977
Scheduled wage
reopenings
Contract
expirations
Period
Principal industry
Number
2,253
1977: Total.
9,984
261
1,033
All years.
Workers
covered
(thousands)
4,721
172
Number
Workers
covered
(thousands)
January..
February
March
April....
May..
June
Petroleum refining
Food stores
Construction, food stores
Construction
Apparel, construction, lumber..
Construction, utilities..
63
37
89
145
138
143
150
116
297
333
509
529
24
22
22
52
July
August
September.
October
November..
December..
Construction, mining
Communications, steel
Maritime, food stores
Transportation equipment,
do.
Railroads, mining..
61
133
70
71
24
59
159
1,381
204
260
68
716
12
4
20
2
2
4
884
336
3, 560
1,703
89
1978 and beyond
Year unknown or in negotiationl.
9
1
Bargaining units for which necessary information was not available include 212 agreements which expired prior to
October 1976 (when these data were tabulated) covering 1,311,400 workers and 124 contracts which expired between
October 1 and December 31,1976, covering 391,300 workers.
Note.—Major agreements are those covering 1,000 or more workers.
Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
42
led to large first-year catchup increases in 1976 (for example the absence
of the COLA provision or a limit to it, as in the United Rubber Workers
and Teamsters contracts) will be less significant in 1977. For example, twothirds of the wrorkers covered by contracts expiring in 1977 are already
under cost-of-living adjustments and thus have been well protected from
the effects of inflation in the past 3 years. The only major contract expiring
in 1977 in which there has been a cap on the COLA is in the railroad
industry.
The effective wage rate change that is likely to occur in 1977
for all persons covered by major collective bargaining agreements may
be projected on the basis of current contract information. Wages
change because of scheduled or deferred increases written into previous contracts, automatic cost-of-living adjustments, and first-year or currently
negotiated wage increases. A tabulation of deferred wage increases, excluding
COLA, scheduled for the 5 million workers in the second and third years of
their contracts shows an average increase of 5/2 percent for 1977, compared
with 6 percent for such agreements in 1976. This implies a contribution of
2/2 to 3 percentage points to the expected wage rate increase in 1977 for all
workers covered by major collective bargaining agreements. Cost-of-living adjustments are expected to add another 1 percent, while first-year settlements are likely to be in the neighborhood of 8 percent. The effective wage
rate increase in 1977 for workers covered by major collective bargaining
agreements is thus expected to be about ll/i percent. Increases of this
magnitude are consistent with our projected overall growth in compensation.
2. Food prices. Food prices are not expected to be a source of inflationary
pressure in 1977. Though errors in forecasting food prices are large, one
may expect the consumer price of food relative to nonfood items to fall as
it did in 1976. Commodity futures prices on organized exchanges are consistent with a food component of the consumer price index (CPI) about 3
percent higher in 1977 than a year earlier, about the same increase as in
1976. This projection is roughly in line with forecasts by the U.S. Department
of Agriculture. While futures prices are often inaccurate predictors, they
do incorporate all the currently available information and therefore provide
a useful point of reference for next year's outlook for wholesale food prices.
There are important uncertainties in the outlook for food prices. Meat
prices were primarily responsible for the stability of consumer food prices in
1976. However, the supply conditions that led to lower meat prices last
year are unlikely to persist throughout 1977, particularly for beef. Exactly
when and how much prices for all meats will be affected is not yet clear for
several reasons. First, it is uncertain how long farmers will go on reducing
cattle inventories. Marketing of breeding stock could continue to sustain
total beef production. Second, continued large supplies of pork and poultry
will dampen upward pressure on the overall price of meat. Ample pork and
poultry production seems assured through the first half of 1977, although
low prices could cause this supply to taper off later in the year. Third, the
43
marketing margin—costs added to meat prices between the farm and retail
markets—is difficult to forecast for 1977. It rose sharply in 1976, especially
for pork, as larger supplies increased the demand for marketing services. If
supplies begin to slacken, the reduced demand for marketing services could
substantially lower the rate of increase in these margins. Thus, while cattle
prices above the 1976 average are expected in 1977, the ultimate effect on
retail meat prices should be tempered by lower prices for hogs and poultry
than in 1976 and by slower growth in marketing margins.
Prices of fresh fruits and vegetables are even more difficult to forecast
than those for meat, but they also carry less weight in the CPI. Generally,
supplies of fruits and vegetables for processing should be sufficient to limit
the risk of sharp price increases. Coffee prices should continue to be high.
Cereal products are unlikely to be subject to significant upward price pressures in 1977 because of ample stocks of the principal food grains: wheat
and rice. Milk production is expected to continue at high levels, creating
the possibility of some weakness in prices. Because of low stocks of the major
feed grains and oilseeds for feed, production of dairy and other livestock
products late in the year will be sensitive to harvests of 1977 feed and forage
crops. Current soil moisture reserve conditions in the upper Midwest are
unfavorable; hence 1977 crop prospects will depend more than usual on
adequate spring and summer precipitation.
3. Energy prices. During the period from 1974 to 1976, wholesale and
retail prices of fuel and related products rose on average at rates in excess
of the increase in overall consumer and wholesale prices. In 1976, however,
these rates of growth began to converge and this movement should continue in 1977; prices of consumer energy products are expected to increase
between 6 and 7 percent during the year. The recently announced increase
in the price of petroleum exports imposed by members of OPEC does not
alter this conclusion. The higher price of imported oil is expected to add
about 1 cent per gallon to the price of domestic petroleum products, and to
result in a 2 to 3 percent increase in the consumer price index for gasoline
and distillate fuel oil.
Consumer and wholesale prices of natural gas contributed most to
the increase in the wholesale and consumer price indexes of fuel and
power during 1975 and 1976, largely owing to increases in the price of
imported natural gas, primarily from Canada, and to regulatory actions
by the Federal Power Commission. This trend will continue in 1977 as
a result of recent decisions which permit higher prices to be charged for
supplies of natural gas flowing from new domestic wells. In addition, in
July 1976 the FPC raised the ceiling price for gas supplies introduced into
interstate commerce during 1975 and 1976. These actions will undoubtedly
lead to continued large increases in wholesale and consumer prices for natural gas in the near term. In the longer run, it is hoped that higher prices will
bring forth additional supplies of natural gas which will tend to moderate
future price increases.
44
Consumer prices of fuels during 1977 will probably not be affected by
the removal of price controls on petroleum products. Controls were removed
from distillate and residual fuel oils in mid-1976 without a noticeable impact
on inflation. The supply of gasoline appears to be more than adequate to
satisfy projected demand at prevailing prices, so that the removal of price
controls from gasoline would not have adverse inflationary consequences.
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND RESOURCE UTILIZATION
In designing economic policy to cope with cyclical fluctuations in economic activity, it is important not to overlook the longer-term issue of
growth. In the past 25 years more than two-thirds of the increase in
real national output has been generated by increases in average labor
productivity, or output per labor-hour. Over the past decade, however,
productivity growth has shown a marked decline, even after adjusting for
cyclical effects. Since 1966 the trend rate of growth in measured output per
labor-hour has decreased by about one-third from the rate attained in the
1950s and early 1960s. If productivity gains continue to be small, real wages
will continue to grow more slowly than in the 1950-65 period.
THE PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN, 1966-76
Productivity growth in the private sector averaged 3.3 percent per year
between 1948 and 1966, almost 1 percentage point above the 1929-75
average. Between 1966 and 1973, however, the private productivity growth
rate was only 2.1 percent per year, below the long-run trend. This slower
advance may have contributed to increased inflationary pressures and may
have led to lower growth in real wages.
As shown in Chart 3 the reduction in private productivity growth is striking. While part of this poor performance can be attributed to the recent
recession, the falloff in productivity was evident even before 1974. Slower
growth in capital per worker, a larger proportion of less experienced workers
in the labor force, and the changing industrial composition of labor input
have all contributed to this slowdown. Higher relative energy prices and
slower technical progress may also have played a part. However, the
reasons for the slowdown are not fully understood at this time because the
decline in productivity growth appears to be larger than the sum of the estimated effects of these factors.
Growth of Capital and Labor
One important source of productivity growth is the increase in the amount
of capital per hour of labor input. Between 1948 and 1966 capital per
labor-hour in the private sector grew by about 3.1 percent per year; during
the 1966-73 period this growth rate fell to 2.8 percent per year. Since 1973
the growth of capital per labor-hour has apparently fallen to 1.7 percent,
224-250 O - 77 - 4
45
Chart 3
Productivity in the Private
Business Economy
1972 DOLLARS PER HOUR (RATIO SCALE)
/
PRODUCTIVITY AT
C
i
ACTUAL PRODUCTIVITY
3
i
i • i
_
i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i
1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976
J/GROWTH RATE OF 3.3 PERCENT PER YEAR.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
after adjustment for cyclical factors. The decrease can be attributed to a
faster rate of growth of labor input not matched by corresponding increases in the capital stock. The larger growth in the labor force since the
mid-sixties has been a result of the postwar baby boom and of an increased
percentage of women in the work force. Although the average growth rate
of fixed nonresidential capital in 1966-73 was higher than the average
growth rate for 1948-66, the effective growth rate of capacity may well
have increased less because of higher obsolescence rates and increased
expenditures on pollution abatement and safety equipment. While both
types of investment contribute to our well-being they do not in general
increase our capacity to produce measured output. Estimates of the
contribution of increases in the capital-labor ratio to productivity growth
are very sensitive to the measure of capital stock used; our analysis suggests
that perhaps one-tenth to one-third of the productivity slowdown since 1966
can be explained by slower growth in effective capital per labor-hour.
Composition of the Labor Force
In the last decade the proportion of the labor force made up of teenagers
and young adults has been rising. Workers in these groups tend to be less
productive to the extent that they have less experience and training than
4
6
other workers. Productivity is measured by output per labor-hour, and
these labor-hours do not reflect differences in training and experience. Early
retirement has also reduced the proportion of experienced workers. Thus
lower productivity growth is a natural consequence of a fall in the average
wrork experience of those in the labor force. Changes in the age-sex composition of the labor force can explain more than 0.1 percentage point (or about
10 percent) of the productivity growth differential between 1948—66 and
1966-73.
Median educational attainment in the labor force has also increased
more slowly in the past decade than it did in the previous 10 years. In
many age and sex categories of workers there has been a slight slowdown in
the rate of increase in years of schooling. It is, however, unlikely that this
small change had a significant effect on average productivity.
Employment Shifts Between Sectors in the Economy
Changes in the industrial composition of employment have also been a
factor in lowering average productivity growth. Before 1970 the shift of
workers out of agriculture contributed to growth in productivity. Even
though the rate of growth of productivity in agriculture was high, the
average level of productivity was below the general average, and the movement of workers from agriculture to other sectors increased aggregate
productivity. Since the late 1960s this shift out of agriculture has slowed,
and productivity growth from this source has been much reduced. Almost
one-third of the difference between the trend rate of private productivity
growth in 1948-66 and 1966-73 can be attributed to the higher rate of
reduction in agricultural employment in the earlier period.
A higher rate of increase in the number of workers in the low-productivity service sector has also been a factor in the slowdown in productivity
growth. However, the effect of shifts in employment in the private nonfarm
sector are much smaller than the effect of the movement of workers out
of agriculture.
To some extent shifts in employment between sectors and changes in the
amount of capital per labor-hour measure the same thing and thus represent
double counting of changes in the capital-labor ratio. Low-productivity
sectors may be less capital intensive, and therefore a shift in employment
toward low-productivity sectors can be accompanied by a decrease in the
growth of capital per worker. There are also independent effects, however,
since capital per worker can change within each sector.
Other Factors Affecting Productivity
Productivity growth that is not caused by increases in capital per laborhour or changes in the composition of the labor force is attributed to a catchall residual category. Measurement errors of many kinds comprise part of
the residual, but most of it is probably traceable to various forms of technical
progress, such as improvements in the quality of capital and new techniques
for combining inputs to increase production.
47
While allocation of resources to research and development should generate technical progress and increase residual productivity growth, the
quantitative relation between productivity and research is not well documented. Even though a close causal relation between aggregate research
and development expenditures and residual productivity growth cannot be
proved, such expenditures and their share of total output give some indication of probable productivity growth in the future. Research and development expenditures, which grew rapidly from 1955 to 1969, have fallen in
real terms since 1970. The share of research and development in GNP
reached a peak of 3.0 percent in 1964 and fell to 2.3 percent in 1975.
Although changes in labor force composition and slower growth in fixed
capital per worker have been a partial cause of the productivity slowdown
in the last decade, much of it must be attributed to other factors. Significantly greater productivity may be generated by the technical improvements
incorporated in new capital equipment, a consideration which would increase
the impact of the slowdown in the growth of the capital-labor ratio.
However, it seems unlikely that the effect of this "embodied" technical
progress could explain most of the large difference in residual productivity growth before and after 1966.
Since the productivity slowdown coincides with the entrance into the
labor market of those born during the post-World War II baby boom, the
slowdown in productivity may be in part a consequence of the time required
to adjust to changes in relative factor proportions. If so, productivity growth
similar to that in 1966-76 may continue through 1980, since the labor force
is projected to grow at relatively high rates until that time. After 1980 the
growth rate of the working-age population will decline, and the labor force
will expand more slowly unless the slower population growth is offset by increases in the proportion of the population in the labor force.
THE FULL-EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Assessing long-run trends in economic growth requires a standard to measure labor resource utilization. Although an explicit definition is difficult, the
full-employment unemployment rate is generally understood to mean the
lowest rate of unemployment attainable, under the existing institutional
structure, that will not result in accelerated inflation. Given the inexact
relation between changes in the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment, estimates are necessarily imprecise, but in the early 1960s the Council
of Economic Advisers selected 4 percent as an estimate of the full-employment unemployment rate in the economic circumstances existing at that
time. This estimate referred to the overall measure of unemployment as a
percentage of the civilian labor force and was based on an examination of
economic conditions in the mid-1950s when the overall unemployment rate
fluctuated around 4 percent. During the 20 years since then a number of
relevant changes have occurred which give reason to believe that the fullemployment unemployment rate equivalent to 4 percent in the mid-1950s
has increased.
48
Since the mid-1950s a dramatic change in the composition of the labor
force has apparently led to an increase in the movement of workers in and
out of the labor force. High rates of labor force turnover generally increase
measured unemployment, since first entry and reentry into the labor force
generally involve a period of job search and are counted as unemployment in
the labor force statistics. Hence for approximately the same tightness in the
labor market, the measured unemployment rate will be higher if a larger
proportion of job seekers are persons formerly outside the labor force.
Data on reasons for unemployment indicate that the high rates of labor
force entry and reentry account for most of the higher unemployment rates
among youths compared with adults, and that the unemployment rates for
job losers and job leavers differ very little among demographic groups (Table
4). Youths are far more likely than adults to combine work in the labor
market with some other activity such as schooling or work at home. Students
move in and out of the labor force in search of part-time and full-time employment during the school recess, and during the school term many search
for part-time employment. A rising proportion of youths in the labor force
would therefore be associated with a rising proportion of new entrants and
reentrants—and hence, other things being equal, with a rise in the unemployment rate. Since the mid-1950s teenagers and young adults have, in
fact, constituted an increasing proportion of the labor force, from 15 percent in 1955 to 24 percent in 1976, because of the postwar baby boom that
has increased the proportion of youths in the working-age population, and
because of a rise in the labor force participation rate of students.
TABLE 4.—Civilian unemployment rates by age, sex, and reason for unemployment, 1973
[Percent]
All civilian
workers *
Age and sex
25 years and over:
Men
__
Women
Job losers and
job leavers 3
2.5
4.0
9.9
11.2
16-24 years:
Men
Women
2.0
2.3
4.9
4.1
1 Unemployment as percent of civilian labor force in proup specified.
2 Unemployment as percent of civilian labor force excluding new entrants and reentrants.
Sources: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and Council of Economic Advisers.
The difference between the overall unemployment rate and that for subgroups of the population has widened markedly since the mid-1950s, partly
because of these changing labor force proportions (Table 5). The unemployment rates for adults, experienced workers, and the long-term unemployed
in 1965 and 1973, were all roughly equal to the rates in 1956, a year in which
the overall rate of unemployment approximated the full-employment estimate of 4 percent. Yet for the later years the overall unemployment rate was
much higher, rising to 4.5 percent in 1965 and to 4.9 percent in 1973.
49
TABLE 5.—Civilian unemployment rates for selected groups, 1956, 1965, and 1973
[Percent ij
1956
Group
1965
1973
4. 1
4.5
4.9
Experienced wage and salary workers..
Long-term unemployed workers2
4. 4
8
4.3
1.0
4.5
.9
Age groups:
25-54 years
55 years and over
16-24 years
3. 3
3. 4
8. 5
3.2
3.2
10.1
3.2
2.7
10.5
All civilian workers.
1
Unemployment as a percent of civilian labor force in group specified, except as noted.
3 Unemployed 15 weeks or longer as percent of total civilian labor force.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The apparent secular rise in the unemployment rate for young persons
relative to adults suggests that the change in the composition of the labor
force does not explain all of the shift between the overall unemployment
rate and the rate for adults. Direct data are not available, but some of this
change in the structure of unemployment rates may be due to increased
movement in and out of the labor force by youths. Among youths there
has been an increase in school enrollment rates since the mid-1950s and students are more likely than other youths to alternate between working or job
seeking and attending school.
There also appears to have been an increase in the measured unemployment rate for adult women relative to adult men, but because of a change in
the survey the data reported after 1967 are not strictly comparable with
earlier years. Moreover how greatly this survey change has affected the
difference in unemployment rates between adult men and adult women
is uncertain. If there has been a rise in the actual unemployment rate of
adult women relative to adult men, it may be due to an increase in labor
force participation for married women. Many married women leave the
labor force when a child is born and return intermittently for several
years. A disproportionate increase in the component of the adult female
labor force in which the labor force turnover is highest would thus tend to
raise the unemployment rate of adult females relative to that of adult men.
Because the estimates of these developments are still uncertain, however,
it is difficult to assess their influence on the overall unemployment rate.
Other developments in the past 20 years may have tended to increase the
full-employment unemployment rates of all demographic groups. For example, broader coverage of unemployment compensation is likely to raise the
rate of unemployment associated with a particular degree of tightness in the
labor market. The most recent extension of coverage, in 1975, placed an
estimated 12 million wage and salary workers under the temporary special
unemployment assistance program. As a result of 1976 legislation, coverage
under the regular State programs is to be extended to about 9 million of
these 12 million workers. Other circumstances suggest that the financial burden of unemployment has been lessened for many families: the rise in the
proportion of families with two adult earners because of the growth in
50
women's labor force participation; and an increase in other public transfer
programs for the low-income unemployed. These factors have tended to
weaken the tie between current consumption and current earnings, and they
may have increased the extent of unemployment that is consistent with a
full-employment economy.
Other changes may have had the opposite effect. These include the rising
level of education, the relative increase in white-collar occupations, and more
efficient job search because of improvements in transportation and communication. Because the reasons for differences in unemployment rates by
education level are not well understood, it is not clear whether the rise in
education by itself has been accompanied by a stable or a changing education-specific full-employment unemployment rate for given age and sex
groups. The effects of improved labor market efficiency are also ambiguous
since it is not clear whether greater efficiency in the search for jobs lessens
the rate of unemployment at full employment.
There is no unique procedure for adjusting the full-employment unemployment rate for the changing demographic composition of the labor force
and for the changing relationships in the unemployment rates of various
demographic groups. Moreover any estimating procedure is subject to sampling variability. Using available data on labor force composition and unemployment rates, and adjusting for the increased proportion of young persons in the labor force and for the increase in their unemployment rate relative to adults, the Council of Economic Advisers has estimated that the fullemployment unemployment rate equivalent to 4.0 percent in 1955 is now 4.9
percent. This estimate corresponds with the widening in the difference
between the overall unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for
adults observed in Table 5.
The effects of many of the other factors which are believed to influence
the full-employment unemployment rate are much more difficult to quantify.
Partly because of this difficulty there is considerable dispute about their
relative importance, but it is likely that they have raised the full-employment
unemployment rate even higher than the current estimate, perhaps closer
to 5J/2 percent. The current benchmark estimates, however, incorporate
only the effects for which the evidence is substantial. As further evidence becomes available—perhaps through more data on unemployed persons classified by reason for unemployment, or perhaps through observed changes in
wages and prices as actual unemployment rates decline—the current estimate
of the full-employment unemployment rate might be further refined.
It is important to bear in mind, however, that the full-employment unemployment rate will not remain constant. For example, as the population ages
and youths represent a smaller percentage of the labor force, the full-employment unemployment rate will also tend to decline. The overall unemployment rate that represents full employment can be expected to change with
time as demographic, social, and economic factors affect the rates at which
workers move in and out of jobs, and in and out of the work force.
51
GROWTH IN POTENTIAL OUTPUT
Potential GNP is a measure of the aggregate supply capability of the
economy, or the amount of output that could be expected at full employment. More precisely, potential GNP is the output the economy could produce with the existing technology under assumed conditions of high but
sustainable utilization of the factors of production—labor, capital, and natural resources. It does not represent the absolute maximum level of production that could be generated by wartime or other abnormal levels of aggregate demand, but rather that which could be expected from high utilization
rates obtainable under more normal circumstances.
The significant slowdown in average productivity growth suggests that
the rate of growth of potential output was lower in the past 10 years
than has been previously estimated. The revision of the national income
and product accounts also reduced the rate of growth of real GNP.
Moreover the widespread shortages of physical capacity and the resulting
inflationary pressures experienced in 1973 suggest that previous estimates
of potential GNP are overstated. The Council has therefore reestimated
potential GNP, taking into account the lowered rate of productivity growth,
the factors contributing to this slowdown, and the increase in the fullemployment unemployment rate. The new estimates of potential output are
experimental in the sense that they are based on highly aggregated measures
of labor, capital, and output; and they must therefore be considered interim
revisions. A more definitive study would use disaggregated data on labor and
capital inputs and more evidence on the education and experience of the
work force.
Estimates of Potential GNP
The benchmark level of resource utilization implicit in the Council of
Economic Advisers' previous estimates of potential output was an overall unemployment rate of 4 percent; it was assumed that full utilization of other
resources, such as capital and land, would accompany 4 percent unemployment. The new estimates of potential attempt to include explicitly the contribution to output of fixed capital; hence a benchmark for capital utilization
as well as for labor utilization must be set. Full employment of fixed capital
is assumed to be attained when the manufacturing capacity utilization index
calculated by the Department of Commerce reaches 86 percent. This is the
capacity utilization rate attained in the first and second quarters of 1973. In
1969, another year of high employment, manufacturing capacity utilization
was 85 percent; 86 percent is thus a relatively optimistic estimate of sustainable capacity utilization. The capacity utilization index that represents the
same degree of resource utilization may change over time, since capital input
is at least as heterogeneous as labor input. A higher proportion of old equipment in the capital stock would probably lower the capacity utilization
benchmark. Inadequate data make estimation of such a variable benchmark
very difficult, however, and it has not been attempted here.
52
The full-employment benchmark has been changed from a constant 4
percent unemployment rate to a rate that varies over time. The new labor
utilization benchmark adjusts for the increase in the proportion of younger
workers in the labor force since 1955, and for the observed increase in
unemployment rates for younger workers relative to those for adults. As
discussed earlier, these adjustments imply a rate that rises from 4.0 percent
in 1955 to 4.9 percent in 1976. The definition of the new estimate of potential GNP in 1976 is, then, the output in 1972 dollars that the economy
would produce if the Department of Commerce manufacturing capacity
utilization rate were 86 percent and the unemployment rate 4.9 percent.
The new potential GNP estimates are compared to the previous estimates
in Table 6, and are shown graphically in Chart 4. The average annual
growth rate of potential from 1962 to 1976 is now estimated to be 3.6 percent per year, a reduction from the former estimate of 3.9 percent per year;
and the rate is projected to be about 3*4 percent per year in the near future.
The reduction in the growth of potential GNP results in an estimate that
is $58 billion in 1972 dollars (or about 4 percent) lower in 1976 than that
previous estimate of potential. Most of the reduction in the estimate of the
growth of potential output is due to slower growth in labor productivity
since 1966. In 1976, $30 to $40 billion of the estimated reduction in potential
output can be attributed to this factor.
Some of the reduction in the growth rate of potential output can also be
attributed to the recent benchmark revisions of the national income and
product accounts, which incorporate new source data and estimating procedures. The revised real GNP estimates are evaluated in terms of 1972
rather than 1958 prices. The result of these changes has been to lower
growth rates of real GNP.
The change in the unemployment benchmark lowers slightly our estimates of how the expanding labor force has increased potential GNP.
Using a full-employment benchmark of 4.0 percent rather than 4.9 percent
in 1976 would raise potential GNP by 0.3 percent to 1.1 percent, depending
on how the reduction in unemployment is distributed over the labor force.
Thus between $5 billion and $15 billion of the $58 billion reduction in
potential for 1976 can be attributed to the change in the assumed unemployment rate at potential.
The downward revision in potential GNP results in a current growth rate
for potential output that is about the same as the 3/2 percent per year
originally estimated by the Council of Economic Advisers for the period
from 1952 to 1962. Increases in the labor force growth rate since that time
have been offset by decreases in the rate of productivity growth, yielding a
growth rate of potential output which is nearly constant. This downward
revision does not appear to be sensitive to the particular method which we
have used to estimate potential. Experiments with a number of alternative
procedures give similar results and indicate that the new estimates are robust,
given current information. For example, a calculation for the period from
53
TABLE 6.—Potential and actual gross national product, 1952-76
[Billions of 1972 dollars]
Potential GNP
GNP gap
Year
New
Actual
GNP
Old
New
(new potential
less actual)
Old
(old potential
less actual)
1952
1953
1954
584.9
608.2
629.7
592.2
613.0
634.4
598.5
621.8
613.7
—13.6
—13.6
16.0
—6.3
—8.8
20.7
1955...
1956
1957
1958
1959
651.4
673.9
697.2
721.3
746.2
656.6
679.6
703.4
728.0
753.5
654.8
668.8
680.9
679.5
720.4
—3.4
5.1
16.3
41.8
25.8
1.8
10 8
22.5
48.5
33.1
771.9
798 6
826.4
857.1
890.3
779.9
807 1
835.4
865.9
898.4
736.8
755 3
799.1
830.7
874.4
35.1
43 3
27.3
26.4
15.9
43.1
51 8
36.3
35.2
24.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
.
.
925.0
960.8
996.3
1,031.7
1,068.3
1975
1976
1
.
925.9
981.0
1,007.7
1,051.8
1,078.8
-.9
-20.2
-11.4
-20.1
-10.5
6.2
—14.0
^4.4
—10.9
2.8
1,106.2
1,145. 5
1,186.1
1,228.2
1,271.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
932.1
967.0
1,003.3
1,040.9
1 081 fi
1,124.9
1,169.9
i, 216.7
1,265.4
1,315.9
1,075.3
1,107. 5
1,171.1
1,235.0
1,214.0
30.9
38.0
15.0
-6.8
57.7
49.6
62.4
45.6
30.4
101.9
1,316.9
1,363.6
I, 368.6
1.421.2
1,191.7
11,265.0
125.2
198.6
176 9
i 156.2
Preliminary.
Note.—See text in this chapter on "Productivity Growth and Resource Utilization" for differences between the old
and new potential GNP.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (actual GNP) and Council of Economic Advisers
(potential GNP).
1968 to 1973 which adds labor force growth of 2.0 percent to productivity
growth of 1.8 percent and subtracts 0.3 percent for the decline in average
hours worked per week, all at annual rates, yields a growth rate of potential
output amounting to 3.5 percent per year. More research would be useful,
however, to further our understanding of the determinants of the economy's
potential and the relation between the growth of potential and economic
policy. The attempt made here to incorporate the effects of capital accumulation and labor force composition on economic growth is a step in
this direction.
The decline in average hours worked is also a factor which contributes to
a slower growth in potential output than might be expected from the high
rate of growth in the labor force. Between 1966 and 1973 the tendency
toward shorter workweeks accelerated somewhat. The slightly accelerated
decline in the average workweek, added to the effect of the changing composition of the labor force, implies a growth rate of effective labor input
(labor hours weighted by average hourly earnings) that is significantly
lower than the growth rate of the labor force. For example, from 1966 to
1973 the civilian labor force grew by 2.3 percent per year, while effective
54
Chart 4
Gross National Product, Actual
and Potential
BILLIONS OF 1972 DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
1,600
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
1,500
NEW POTENTIAL GNP
1,400
1,300
OLD POTENTIAL GNP
1,200
V
1,100
1,000
ACTUAL GNP
900
800
i i i
i
i i i
i i i 11 11 1 i i i 11 i i 1 11 i 1 i i i 1 i i i 1 i i i 1 i i i
1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976
NOTE.-SEE TEXT IN CHAPTER ON "PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND RESOURCE UTILIZATION" FOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OLD AND NEW POTENTIAL GNP.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
labor input grew by only 1.5 percent per year. Therefore, although the
rapidly growing labor force implies a high rate of growth in potential output, reductions in the average workweek and changes in the age-sex composition of the labor force indicate that the increases are somewhat lower.
Productivity behavior since 1973 raises a further question about the
current level of potential output. In the most recent downturn, the productivity decline started earlier and was much more severe than might have
been expected from earlier recessions. The data indicate that part of this decrease may have been a permanent downward shift in the level of productivity. A conservative estimate of this shift lowers potential output to $1,330
billion in 1976. Thus the GNP gap may be about $30 billion lower than
indicated.
There is reason to expect such a drop in productivity to accompany the
OPEC oil embargo and the subsequent quadrupling of crude oil prices. The
new high energy prices should have made some capital equipment and some
energy-intensive production processes inefficient, with a consequent loss in
economic capacity. This loss would not be included in capital stock estimates,
because the method normally used for estimating the aggregate capital
stock depreciates new investment over a fixed period and does not adjust
for short-term changes in obsolescence.
55
The statistical methods used to adjust for cyclical variations in productivity are necessarily based on the presumption that the variations in productivity over the business cycle are related in a stable way to measures of
the cycle, such as the unemployment rate and capital utilization rates.
Since the data indicate that the current slowdown may have produced an
atypical reaction in productivity, it is possible that productivity will continue to increase and reach its former trend in the next 2 years. This possibility would imply private productivity growth rates for 1977 and 1978 well
in excess of the 2 percent trend.
On the other hand, it has been nearly 2 years since the recession reached
its trough, and there has been little evidence of cyclical productivity gains
this late in previous recoveries. Because of this uncertainty regarding the
permanence of the recent decline in productivity, estimates of potential
output will be similarly uncertain. The estimates of potential GNP presented in Table 6 and Chart 4 do not include a shift in the level of productivity in 1973-74, but instead assume that the downward movement will
be offset by an equivalent upward movement as recovery continues. The
performance of the economy over the next 2 years will indicate whether
or not a further revision in the estimates of potential GNP is necessary.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Neither potential GNP nor the full-employment unemployment rate
will be reached in 1977. However, both may set limits to growth in coming years which cannot be exceeded without risking accelerating inflation
and renewed instability. For example, the uncertainty that surrounds the
estimates of potential output implies that caution must be observed as
potential GNP is approached. If the 1974-75 reduction in the level of
productivity proves to be permanent, physical capacity constraints similar
to those encountered in 1973 may appear well before an unemployment
rate of 4.9 percent is reached. If so, they will seriously interfere with our
full-employment goals.
As discussed previously, there are reasons to believe that the fullemployment rate may be above the 4.9 percent benchmark we have
used to estimate potential output. In any case, policy makers should realize
that a 4 percent goal is not likely to be sustainable in the current economic
environment; and because of the tentative nature of the full-employment
rate estimates they should watch closely for signs of accelerating wage inflation when the overall rate of unemployment falls to about 5J4 percent.
The analysis suggests, for example, that the 4.9 percent unemployment rate
in 1973 may have been partly responsible for the accelerating inflation in
1973-74, although this interpretation is clouded by other events such as the
wage and price controls and the extraordinary increases in the prices of food
and fuel. It also suggests that economic programs which aim to reduce
unemployment in particularly depressed areas or among disadvantaged
56
groups can be a useful supplement to policies which focus on the economy
as a whole. Moreover it must be remembered that even with our revised estimates, the current output is far below potential, and unemployment is much
above full-employment levels. Thus aggregate demand policies, such as the
tax program proposed by the President, are still necessary to reduce unemployment and close the existing gap between potential and actual output.
The uncertainty about the lowest rate of unemployment that will not
result in accelerating inflation also has important policy implications. Not
too long ago economic policy makers were able to illustrate the difficulties
of achieving both a stable price level and a full-employment economy by
referring to the fairly close negative association between the unemployment
rate and the inflation rate during the 1950s and early 1960s. While it was
never thought to be exact, the relationship indicated the inevitable upward
pressure of high utilization of labor and capital on prices and wages, and
it was used to calculate the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.
According to this relationship, the cost of an excessively low unemployment
rate was a higher, though not necessarily increasing, rate of inflation.
During the last 10 years, however, this relationship has shifted dramatically and the concept of a stable tradeoff has become untenable. Nevertheless it is difficult to deny the essential fact that excessive expansion and
extremely low unemployment rates ultimately produce higher and perhaps
accelerating inflation. Nor can one deny that a slack economy with low
utilization of capital and labor resources is usually a moderating influence
on prices and wages. However, because of an economy-wide persistence
in price and wage inflation, these excess demand and excess supply effects
sometimes seem to work very slowly, with their influence spread over a
long period.
In the long run the lower estimated growth rate of potential output, if projected into the future, implies a decrease in the "fiscal dividend" to be gained
from full employment. Projection of the new potential GNP estimates through
1980 gives an output that is 4.8 percent lower than the previous estimate,
a difference amounting to about $130 billion in current dollars. The estimate of Federal tax receipts in 1980 is thus more than $30 billion lower if
output is assumed to be the new potential GNP rather than the old estimate.
Lower total output implies lower tax revenues available for further tax cuts
or for new or expanded Federal Government programs.
The challenge for the future will be to devise new policies to cope with
the problems of economic growth and productivity. Increased productivity
growth is necessary if the economy is to provide jobs without incurring
declines in the growth of real income for the many new workers in the labor
force. Chapter 4 in this Report discusses several areas in which microeconomic policies have been devised or are being considered to increase
production and employment beyond levels attainable through the management of aggregate demand.
57
CHAPTER 2
Economic Review of 1976
H P HE ECONOMIC EXPANSION continued last year. Real gross
-*• national product (GNP) rose 6.2 percent, as projected in the last Report.
The growth of output was unexpectedly strong in the first quarter, but fell below expectations during the rest of the year (Table 7). The rise in real GNP
has been slightly greater since the trough in the first quarter of 1975 than the
average rise over similar periods in the last four expansions, partly because
of the exceptional depth of the last recession. The depth of the recession
also accounted for the substantial excess capacity that remained at year-end,
when the gap between actual and potential output was 8 percent and the unemployment rate was just under 8 percent. For the year as a whole the unemployment rate averaged 7.7 percent, 0.8 percentage point lower than in 1975,
and employment increased by 2.7 million persons.
Excess capacity helped moderate last year's rate of inflation. The GNP
deflator slowed to 5 percent last year from 7 percent during 1975 in spite of
the large year-to-year rise of output. The slackening of inflation is a reflection
of slower rates of increase in both labor compensation per hour and profits
per unit of output. Smaller rises in food prices and a legislated rollback of
oil prices helped in the slowing of inflation.
At year-end there were signs of some reacceleration of the economy,
though real GNP rose at a 3 percent annual rate for the last quarter as
a whole. A rapid growth of retail sales took place within the quarter, starting from a depressed September level, and auto sales rose rapidly from low
levels early in the quarter when supplies were limited. Housing starts and
residential investment grew very rapidly from third-quarter averages. Business fixed investment, which had been recovering for a year, was little
changed from the third quarter, largely because of a sharp drop in car and
truck purchases that also reflected limited supplies.
DEMAND AND OUTPUT
The rise of real GNP initially accelerated to a 9 percent annual rate, but
then decelerated to a 3% percent annual rate over the last 3 quarters of last
year. The unevenness of GNP growth was largely due to change in the rate of
inventory accumulation. Early in 1976 GNP was increased by a large change
58
TABLE 7.—Changes in gross national product in constant (1972) dollars,, 1975-76
[Percent change; quarterly changes at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1976
Component
19761
1975
1
III
II
IV i
Percent change in 1972 dollars:
-1.8
Business fixed investment
Residential investment
Government purchases. _
Federal purchases
State and local purchases..
__
9.2
4.5
3.9
3.0
5.5
12.3
4.3
4.5
8.8
23.2
6.8
6.2
4.0
3.0
3.8
4.6
3.6
3.2
1.7
5.3
5.4
2.3
8.5
3.9
-13.3
-14.7
Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods..
Nondurable goods
Services
6 2
1.5
-.4
.9
2.6
Total GNP
3.8
22.7
7.8
22.3
8.3
15.1
9.6
16.1
.8
37.0
1.8
.4
2.6
1.3
1.0
1.4
-4.9
-7.2
-3.5
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.9
5.7
.4
3.5
-1,3
-.1
-.7
4.3
5.0
3.7
6.0
4.2
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
-20.5
6.1
21.1
-6.7
15.9
-6.5
.7
-.6
-.9
-.3
-5.5
-.4
1.4
Addenda:
Final sales
Domestic final sales
Change in billions of 1972 dollars:
Inventory accumulation
Net exports of goods and services
i Preliminary.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
in inventory investment, while the pace of inventory accumulation slowed
considerably at year-end, pushing GNP growth to its lowest rate of the year.
The growth rate of final sales was much steadier, averaging 4% percent during the year. Consumption expenditures slowed after a rapid growth in the
first quarter, but then accelerated at year-end. Consumption at midyear was
restrained by a slow growth of personal income. The buildup of inventories in
the first quarter led to cautious production and employment policies by business. Wage rates and government transfers also rose less than was expected
and farm income declined. There was unexpected slowness in growth of government purchases early in the year, when public spending in many categories was below expectations. Investment, however, was weak in the final
quarter of the year.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
Real personal consumption expenditures rose 5.5 percent in 1976. After
increasing 6.1 percent in the year ending in the first quarter of 1976, real
expenditures grew more slowly during the rest of the year.
Real disposable income is the most important determinant of long-run real
consumption. Individuals tend to retain their consumption patterns for some
time after a given change in income. In the short run the effects of income
changes tend to be divided between savings and the purchases of durable
items. During 1975 and 1976 the rate of growth in real consumption roughly
followed the rate of growth in real disposable income (Table 8). After a
period of relatively fast growth from the first quarter of 1975 through the
59
TABLE 8.—Growth of real consumption expenditures and real disposable personal
income, 1975—76
[Seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Real personal
consumption
expenditures
Period
Real disposable personal
income
Percent change:
1975 1 to 1975 III
5.6
7.2
4.5
4.9
8.8
4.0
3.6
5.4
6.1
4.7
.7
3.7
From preceding quarter:
1975: IV
..
_
1976:1
II .
III 1
IV
_ .
1
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
first quarter of 1976, the rise in real disposable income slowed, especially in
the third quarter. Because the slowdown in income growth may have been
viewed initially as temporary and because a cushion was provided by the
high savings of 1975, the slowdown in consumption was less pronounced and
more steady. The personal saving rate ^11 from 7.0 percent in the first half of
1976 to 6.2 percent in the last half.
Real expenditures for consumer durables have been the largest contributor
to the recovery in final sales in the current expansion, growing by 23 percent from the very depressed last quarter of 1974 through the fourth quarter
of 1976. After a 23 percent annual rate increase in the first quarter of 1976,
however, the growth of real expenditures on durable goods slowed to a 3
percent annual rate on average over the last 3 quarters. These movements
in durables were dominated by purchases of motor vehicles and parts, which
grew 45 percent from the last quarter of 1974 through the first quarter
of 1976. Growth slowed to 3.0 and 1.5 percent respectively in the second
and third quarters, and then declined by 9.0 percent at an annual rate in
the strike-affected fourth quarter.
The significant slowdown in growth of real consumer durables sales in the
second quarter, particularly sales of new domestic automobiles, was influenced by factors other than real disposable income. Shortages existed in
some intermediate and large car lines. Changes in the relative price of automobiles may also have had an effect. The deflator for new domestic autos
grew at a 9.4 percent annual rate from the third quarter of 1975 through
the first quarter of 1976 as rebates and other discounts offered in 1975 were
phased out and list prices on the 1976 domestic models increased. Some effects of this inflation in new automobile prices apparently continued beyond
the first quarter. As individuals attempted to substitute used for new cars,
the implicit deflator for used cars rose by an extraordinary 12.2 percent
from the first quarter to the second and continued to rise strongly in the
third quarter. The increase in domestic auto prices would appear to have
been a factor in the rise in foreign car sales after the first quarter.
60
Relative price movements were apparently important in the real consumption of some nondurable items too. In particular, food prices were virtually
constant throughout 1976 and helped the real value of food consumption to
rise 5.2 percent for the year even though real incomes grew only 4.1 percent.
Energy consumption was also significantly affected by relative price movements, as noted elsewhere in this chapter.
BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT
Real business fixed investment increased 4 percent last year, about the
amount forecast in last year's Report. From lows reached in the second half
of 1975 real business fixed investment grew at an 8J/2 percent average
annual rate over the first 3 quarters. Largely because of the Ford Motor
Company strike, growth slowed to a 1 percent annual rate in the fourth
quarter. Real investment, apart from motor vehicles, rose at substantially
better than a 10 percent annual rate in that quarter.
Probably most important in starting the recovery of investment were the
optimistic sales expectations stimulated by the rapid increase in consumption expenditures through 1975 and early 1976. An additional thrust came
from a much improved cash flow and somewhat lower interest rates, particularly for firms with lower credit ratings. Rapidly rising labor and energy costs
relative to fixed investment costs have also provided an incentive to invest in
plant and equipment. The increases in the investment tax credit in 1975 further enhanced the after-tax profitability of equipment investment.
Plant and equipment expenditures by nondurable goods manufacturers
increased more rapidly in 1976 than the expenditures by durables manufacturers. Industries showing strong growth include motor vehicles, textiles,
food, paper, and electric utilities (Table 9).
TABLE 9.—Changes in plant and equipment expenditures, 1974—76
[Percent change]
1975
actual
1974
actual
Industry
1976
expected 1
12.7
0.3
7.5
21.0
4.2
10.5
Durable goods2 _
Machinery, except electrical
Motor vehicles
17.5
29.2
18.0
-3.4
2.0
-23.4
8.0
11.6
20.3
Nondurable goods2
Food including beverages
Textiles
Paper
24.7
4.6
9.9
38.8
11.6
.2
-21.0
14.3
12.5
19.8
26.5
17.8
7.6
-2.4
5.3
16.2
10.6
19.4
-3.6
4.7
11.4
All industries
Manufacturing
__
Nonmanufacturing2
Mining
Electric utilities
1
Based on actual expenditures in 1975 and expected expenditures in 1976 (actuals for first 3 quarters and expected for
fourth quarter).
2
Includes some industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 7 7 - 5
224-250 O Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
61
Last year's Report noted that investment held up quite well during the
recession in those industries which faced capacity constraints in 1973. In
the past year capacity growth in the paper, chemicals, and petroleum refining industries has been above 3 percent, reflecting substantial investment in these industries over the past 2 years. In paper, however, the operating rate is perhaps high enough that constraints on capacity for the most
refined kinds of paper could occur in the next year. In iron and steel, another
industry of shortages in 1973, capacity has recently been growing at about 2
percent annually, close to the long-term trend growth rate of steel usage.
There was a slowing of investment last year by steelmakers, however, following the very sizable acceleration in 1975. Other industries are operating
considerably below capacity levels and shortages in 1977 are unlikely.
INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Real inventory investment in the national income and product accounts
(NIPA) reflects the difference between aggregate production and deliveries. With real consumption expenditures growing strongly in the last
half of 1975 and the first quarter of 1976, and with completion of the massive inventory adjustment of 1975, production increased very sharply in the
first quarter of 1976 as firms moved to keep output in line with the anticipated growth of final sales. With an only modest rise in total final sales,
inventory investment in the first quarter was $10.4 billion, compared with a
decline of $5.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 1975. The $15.9-billion swing
in the first quarter of 1976 accounted for more than half of the 9.2 percent
annual rate increase in gross national product in that quarter. Inventory
investment did not accelerate later in the year, since slower growth of retail
sales gave rise to conservative orders and production policies in many
businesses.
The NIPA nonfarm business inventory-to-sales ratio stayed in the neighborhood of 0.272 throughout last year. This was below the peak levels of
about 0.300 at the trough of the recession but was still significantly above
the approximately 0.250 levels of the 1972-73 period, a fact suggesting that
inventory accumulation will not accelerate sharply in the immediate future.
The book value of manufacturers' work-in-process inventories, which was
not rising at the beginning of the year, rose in the second half, reflecting
the moderately strong growth in producers' durable equipment.
HOUSING AND RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT
The 1976 recovery in residential investment reflected the recovery in
housing starts which began in 1975. Real residential investment grew at an
18 percent annual rate in the first 3 quarters of 1976 and accelerated to a 37
percent annual growth rate in the fourth quarter. Housing demand became
one of the most favorable developments during a period of general weakness
in the economy. A strong 11 percent increase in total housing starts in
62
August was followed by a 20 percent increase in September, bringing the
seasonally adjusted annual rate to 1.84 million units. Total starts then
remained strong in the last months of the year.
Starts of multifamily dwelling units were important in the acceleration of
starts in 1976. Rental vacancy rates fell from above 6 percent late in 1975
and remained about 5 / 2 percent during most of 1976. A strong rise in multifamily rental absorption rates was also indicative of stronger demand for
rental housing.
Federal assistance programs also encouraged housing construction. In
January, $3 billion in Government National Mortgage Association 7 l/i percent commitment funds was released, with an additional $2 billion in September, and by the second half of the year the subsidized leasing program
authorized by section 8 of the Housing and Urban Development Act began
to affect the building of new multifamily units. By the end of the year it was
estimated that approximately 40,000 apartment units had been started under
the section 8 program, though the incremental impact on housing construction is smaller in that some of these units would have been constructed
without the program.
Financial developments were favorable to housing in 1976, especially in
the second half of the year. Interest rates in the short-term money markets
did not increase in the way that many had anticipated and in fact they
declined in the latter part of the year. By the end of the year market interest
rates were below rates on time deposits of similar maturities at financial intermediaries. This situation encouraged continued savings flows into thrift institutions and made funds for home mortgages readily available. In addition, the continued fall in all long-term interest rates in the second half of
the year reduced mortgage interest rates. The Federal Housing Administration series on new-home mortgages in the secondary market fell from
9.41 percent in December 1975 to 8.45 percent last December but had a
neligible impact on mortgage rates in the primary market in 1976.
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES
Total government purchases in real terms rose by 1.3 percent in 1976,
less than in 1975 and below the rate forecast at the beginning of last year.
Real Federal purchases grew by 1.0 percent for the year. (A detailed discussion of Federal spending is presented elsewhere in this chapter.) Real
purchases of goods and services by State and local governments rose by only
1.4 percent in 1976, the lowest real growth since 1951.
There has been a downward trend in rates of growth of real State and
local government purchases since the late 1960s, partly because the steady
slowing of population growth has reduced the demand for additional services. The deceleration of spending appears to have been sharpened in 1976
by a delayed reaction to the 1974-75 recession and ensuing financial difficulties experienced by some States and local units. The widely publicized
63
budgetary crisis of New York City emphasized the dangers of an excessive
expansion of current services financed by borrowing. The unusually slow
growth of State and local spending in 1976 was thus in part a cyclical correction to bring expenditures in line with receipts and eliminate operating
deficits. By the fourth quarter of 1976, State and local operating balances in
the aggregate moved back into surplus for the first time since late 1973.
The slowdown in State and local spending was most pronounced in new
construction, which fell about 8 percent in nominal terms in 1976. The
bulk of the decline occurred early in the year and was concentrated in new
school building and highway construction. In addition, State and local employment grew by 2.7 percent in 1976, compared with 5.0 percent a year
earlier and with an average rate of growth of 4.8 percent between 1955 and
1975. Moreover, most of the increase in employment came early in 1976.
To some extent the slower growth in 1976 in employment can be attributed
to the expansion of federally funded public service employment jobs in 1975.
NET EXPORTS
On an NIPA basis, nominal net exports of goods and services declined by
$15.8 billion from the fourth quarter of 1975 to the fourth quarter of 1976.
In real terms the decline amounted to $7.8 billion. The decrease largely
reflects a return to more normal trade balances from the cyclically high
export surplus recorded in 1975. Real exports increased 2.0 percent during
1976 and real imports increased 13.7 percent. Export prices rose 5.6 percent
over the same period, while the increase for import prices was 6.5 percent.
Most of the shift in real net exports was accounted for by changes in merchandise trade. Shipments from abroad in late 1976 were 18 percent
above their level at the end of 1975. Most of this increase in volume was
accounted for by a 26 percent rise in imports of fuels. The volume of merchandise exports changed negligibly as a rise in agricultural sales abroad
offset a small decline in other sales. The real surplus on service transactions,
including investment income, rose from $6.4 billion in 1975 to about $8
billion in 1976. This increase reflects in part a trend growth in the surplus on
investment incomes.
PRICES, WAGES, AND PROFITS
The rates of growth in both prices and wages were smaller last year
than in any of the preceding 3 years. Real wages increased after 2 years
of decline. Corporate profits also rose with the economic recovery.
PRICES
The rate of inflation slowed significantly during 1976 to about 5 percent
for both the GNP deflator and the consumer price index (CPI). Increases
from the four quarter of 1975 to the fourth quarter of 1976 in many of the
64
main price indexes were significantly lower than during 1975 and at least
7 percentage points below the 1974 figures (Table 10).
The overall declines in the measured rates of inflation during 1976
probably exaggerate the decline in the underlying rate of inflation during
the year. Declines in the prices of food and energy-related products in the
first part of the year, * which are not likely to recur in the near future,
helped bring the overall inflation rate below a currently sustainable level.
Although any decomposition of inflation changes into temporary and longerrun factors is subject to considerable error, more restrained wage increases
in most sectors indicate that some of last year's decline in inflation may be
more lasting. The absence of significant demand pressures on capacity and
the damping of inflationary expectations have been important forces in this
more permanent decline.
The rates of price increase for all major components of the CPI were
well below the peak rates of 1974. Compared to 1975 rates, the rates
of price increase declined for durables and nondurables and did not
change for services. Consumer price increases for energy continued toward
convergence with the overall inflation rate, rising at a much slower rate than
during 1974 and 1975. In the first quarter the CPI for energy fell,
TABLE 10.—Changes in selected price measures, 1973—76
[Percent change; quarterly changes at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1973 IV
to
1974 IV
1974 IV
to
1975 IV
11.5
7.1
11.7
12 7
-J2.4
11.9
Price measure
1975 IV
to
1976 IV i
1976
1
II
4.7
3.2
5.2
4.4
6.2
7.2
6.6
10.3
4.2
5.1
—15.4
2.3
4.4
-38.4
5.2
3.7
52.2
4.0
5.9
-32.6
5.5
6.5
-18.9
6.0
4.7
3.9
4.1
5.5
5.4
11.0
14.7
13.5
26.3
44.7
9.6
5.6
5.1
5.3
11.3
8.5
7.2
5.7
2.7
.6
2.6
5.1
6.3
12.1
7.3
12.0
25.5
10.9
7.1
11.7
6.9
22.4
4.3
4.1
-.7
4.9
3.9
-.1
21.8
27.1
57.4
4.3
-2.0
5.9
12.7
-3.6
—3.9
6.6
8.6
-17.0
-15.5
4.9
-8.0
13.3
10.6
3.2
-3.1
-7.8
-7.5
7.5
19.9
III
IV i
GNP implicit price deflators:
Total GNP
Business
...
Nonfarm
Farm
Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods 2 . .
Food..
Gasoline and oil . .
Fuel oil and coal
Services
5.4
.5
-1.7
-13.4
-8.8
7.1
6.7
1.6
1.1
-5.1
2.8
5.6
3.6
4.8
1.4
19.1
17.5
6.8
6.9
4.1
1.7
13.2
10.6
5.8
5.0
4.6
4.6
6.0
4.7
.9
6.1
6.4
-2.4
-6.1
8.3
1.6
2.2
6.1
3.1
17.0
6.5
1.3
13.1
4.4
Consumer price index:
All items
Food
Directly purchased energy3
All other items
Wholesale price index:
All commodities
Farm products .
Processed foods and feeds
Industrial commodities
Energy 4___
._
7.9
—.4
—1.3
10.5
30. C
1
Changes in GNP deflators are preliminary, changes in consumer price index are preliminary estimates by tha Council of Economic Advisers.
2
Includes some groups not shown separately.
3 Gas and electricity, fuel oil and coal, and gasoline and motor oil.
4
Fuels and related products and power.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics),
except as noted.
65
primarily because of the removal of the tariff on oil and the initial price rollback features of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act. Despite moderate
second-quarter increases and large increases during the summer months, the
overall 6.1 percent rate from the fourth quarter of 1975 to the fourth quarter of 1976 was substantially less than the 11.7 percent rate during 1975. The
rise in food prices decelerated to 1 percent, the smallest increase occurring
within a year since 1967, the principal reason being abundant supplies of
meats and cereals.
Wholesale prices for all commodities rose about 4 percent from
the last quarter of 1975 to that of 1976 (see Table 10). Following the second
quarter, prices rose more rapidly for most of the major industrial categories,
although some transaction prices may have gone up less than the reported
list prices because of more discounting by sellers. Increases in list prices accompanied by larger discounts may reflect hedging against the possible return of price controls.
WAGES
The rate of increase in wages, although high by historical standards, was
lower in 1976 than in 1975 (Table 11). Real wages, when measured by the
adjusted average hourly earnings index deflated by the CPI, increased by 2
percent in 1976 after declines of 2.5 percent and 0.3 percent in 1974 and
1975 respectively. The continued high rate of increase in nominal wages
last year was in part due to the lagged adjustment of wages to the very
high rate of inflation in 1974 and 1975. It may have also reflected continued
expectations of relatively high inflation.
TABLE 11.—Changes in labor costs and productivity in the private nonfarm business
sector, 1974-76
[Percent change; quarterly changes at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Adjusted
average
hourly
earnings 1
Period
1974
1975
1976 2
.
8.2
8.9
6.9
6.9
6.5
7.1
6.2
.__
III
IV1976:1
II
III..
IV2
1
2
9.3
9.7
8.0
9.0
7.3
8.4
8.0
_
1975:1 .
II
Compensation
per
hour
9.3
8.4
6.7
9.2
Output
per
hour
Unit
labor
costs
-3 5
13.2
12.1
1.9
6 6
13.1
8 4
10.0
-4.9
-1.7
7.6
7.2
2.2
4.0
_.7
4 9
4.0
2.5
7.4
3.8
8.0
4.2
4.3
4.1
8.9
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry shifts.
Preliminary.
Note.—Data for adjusted hourly earnings relate to production or nonsupervisory workers; all other data relate to all
employees.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
66
A broader measure of labor costs, compensation per hour of work in the
private nonfarm business economy, covers all employees and includes supplements to wages and salaries. It represents the sum of labor costs to
employers. Compensation per hour increased faster than average hourly
earnings in the first quarter of 1976, partly because of the January increase
in the base earnings subject to social security taxes. The rate of increase in
compensation per hour was lower in the following quarters, and it was lower
in 1976 than in 1975.
While only 11 percent of the employed are covered by major collective bargaining settlements (those which cover 1,000 or more workers),
these settlements may have a disproportionate impact on wage settlements
throughout the economy as the result of a demonstration effect. The rate of
wage increases negotiated in such contracts declined in 1976 (Table 12).
The first-year annual wage increases averaged 10.2 percent for contracts
negotiated in 1975, covering 3 million workers, and 8.9 percent during the
first 3 quarters of 1976, covering 2.7 million workers. (Approximately 4*/i
million workers were under major contracts scheduled to expire during the
full year). The effective wage rate change under collective bargaining
agreements is the actual wage change going into effect in a quarter because
of settlements negotiated in that year, deferred increases agreed to in the
past, and escalator or cost-of-living adjustments (COLA). The effective
TABLE 12.—Changes in major collective bargaining settlements, 1974-76
[Percent]
19761
1975
Type of change and industry group
1974
1975
II
III
9.0
IV
9.7
II
III
8.2
10.1
13
7
Wage settlements:
First-year wage change (annual rate)_
Percent of workers covered in current quarter
settlements 2
9.8
10.2
50
12.1
29
3
Effective wage rate change:
Total effective changes.
Adjustment resulting from:
Current settlement
Prior settlement
Escalator provision
Manufacturing
Nonmanufacturing, excluding contract construction
Construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale and retail trade
Services
1.7
2.1
3.3
1.5
1.2
2.6
2.0
2.8
3.7
2.2
.6
.6
.4
.7
1.1
.3
.8
1.5
1.0
.6
.5
.4
.3
.6
.4
1.2
1.2
.2
.6
1.0
.3
10.3
8.5
1.8
2.1
2.8
1.6
1.4
2.1
2.2
8.3
9.1
7.6
10.3
7.0
9.3
8.1
9.7
9.2
6.4
1.9
.8
1.7
2.5
2.0
1.2
4.5
.8
2.1
4.3
2.2
5.3
3.0
2.2
1.8
.6
1.8
1.5
1.4
1.3
.7
.9
1.8
2.2
2.6
4.0
2.7
2.8
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.9
2.5
.5
9.4
4.8
2.6
1.9
1
Preliminary.
2
Percent of estimated number of workers under major collective bargaining settlements. Individual quarterly data
for 1976 are based on preliminary estimates that do not add to the current total for the year.
3
Effective wage rate changes are wage rate changes actually going into effect per worker under major contracts in the
respective quarters resulting from major collective bargaining settlements made that calendar year, plus deferred increases in accordance with prior-year contracts plus escalator adjustments.
Note.—Data relate to settlements covering 1,000 or more workers in private nonfarm industries. Effective wage rate
adjustment for the year is the total of the four quarterly changes, except as noted.
Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
67
wage rate change during the first 3 quarters of 1976 was 7.9 percent at an
annual rate, and was smaller than the increase in 1975 both because of
lower first-year settlements and because the lower rate of inflation resulted
in smaller cost-of-living adjustments.
PRODUCTIVITY AND UNIT LABOR COSTS
Labor productivity, or output per hour of work, increased by 4 percent
in 1976 reflecting the cyclical improvement in the economy (See Table
11). Labor productivity rises sharply in the trough quarter of most recessions
or in the following quarter and remains substantially above the trend
growth rate for the first 2 or 3 quarters of recovery. Perhaps because
of the severity of the 1974-75 recession, labor productivity growth was
above the trend rate for 1976 as a whole.
Both the slowdown in compensation per hour and the rise in productivity contributed to a sharp deceleration in the rate of increase in unit
labor costs last year (see Table 11). The rate of increase in unit labor costs
in 1976 is consistent with further declines in the rate of inflation. However,
as the economic recovery continues and the rate of growth in productivity
settles to its long-run trend, unit labor costs will rise more rapidly unless the growth rate of nominal compensation per hour continues to fall.
CORPORATE PROFITABILITY
Pretax corporate profits were up 30 percent last year to about $149 billion. Inflation-based adjustments for inventory appreciation and for depreciation based on replacment cost increased moderately from 1975, and
hence the rise in NIPA profits was also 30 percent. Inventory appreciation rose about $3 billion. The excess of the depreciation based on replacement costs used in the NIPA over the book depreciation that is still based
on historical costs grew by $4 billion, about half of the 1975 increase. The
slower rise of the excess of NIPA depreciation over book depreciation was
due to the substantial deceleration of the rise in prices of investment goods
last year.
Last year's sharp growth in profits was a typical cyclical increase reflecting the marked rise in output and productivity characteristic of the early part
of a business cycle recovery. Although productivity in the corporate sector,
as in the economy as a whole, rose about 4 percent in 1976, the rate of increase had tapered off to under a 3 percent annual rate in the second half.
This moderation, in combination with current rates of increase in compensation per hour of labor of 7/ 2 to 8 percent, means that the normal cyclical
increase of the share of profits in gross product has now tapered off.
The share of after-tax operating profits in the net domestic product of
nonfinancial corporate business exceeded 5 percent in the second half of
1976 after reaching a cyclical low of 1 percent in the third quarter of 1974
(Table 13). Because of the large increase in debt financing in the past 15
years, it is more revealing to examine the share of corporate income accruing
to holders of both equity and liabilities. This share is measured by net interest
68
TABLE 13.—Output, profits, net interest, and profit measures of nonfinancial
corporate business, 1960—76
Percent of net domestic
product
Year
Net
domestic
product
Corporate
profits
after tax
with IVA
and CCA i
Net
interest
Corporate
profits
after tax
with IVA
and CCA»
Corporate
profits
after tax
with IVA
and CCA i
plus net
interest
IMillions of dollars
1%0
1%1
1962
1963
1964
250.3
256.7
282.3
301 1
326.6
18.3
18.0
24.2
27 2
32.8
35
3 9
4.5
4 8
5.3
7.3
7.0
8.6
9.0
10.0
8.7
8.5
10.2
10.6
11.7
1%«>
1966
1967
1968
1969
359.3
394.9
413.6
455.4
494.0
38 9
41.7
39.6
38.5
33.1
6 1
7.4
8.7
10.1
13.1
10.8
10.6
9.6
8.5
6.7
12.5
12.4
11.7
10.7
9.4
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
507.5
544.2
608.4
683.3
729.3
773.8
24.3
28.8
38.5
36.3
17.0
32.8
17.0
17.9
19.1
23.1
29.0
30.8
4.8
5.3
6.3
5.3
2.3
4.2
8.1
8.6
9.5
8.7
6.3
8.2
1976 2
874.8
44.9
35.8
5.1
9.2
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1971)-
I
II
III...
IV
731.5
756.1
793.3
814.2
19.4
32.5
40.8
38.5
30.0
30.2
30.8
32.0
2.7
4.3
5.1
4.7
6.8
8.3
9.0
8.7
1976-
1
844.8
866.1
885.0
42.1
42.3
46.0
33.9
35.2
36.5
5.0
4.9
5.2
9.0
8.9
9.3
III
* Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
2
Preliminary.
Note.—All data relate to nonfinancial corporate business.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
plus after-tax operating profits as a percentage of net domestic product
of nonfinancial corporations. It rose to 9 percent in the third quarter
of 1976. While this figure is well above the cyclical low of 5 percent reached
in the third quarter of 1974, it is well below the peak of 12/2 percent in 1965.
Low profitability may therefore still be exerting a damping effect on investment expenditures.
GOVERNMENT BUDGETS AND FISCAL POLICY
The objective of fiscal policy in 1976 was to maintain the degree of
stimulus provided during 1975 in order to keep the economy on a course of
moderate, sustained expansion. The full-employment surplus, which had
declined sharply in 1975, was expected to remain relatively unchanged in
1976. However, fiscal policy unintentionally became less expansionary in
69
the first half of 1976, when expenditures were lower than anticipated while
receipts remained close to target. Had Federal expenditures followed the
projected pattern, the level of GNP would have been higher and the economic slowdown following the spring of 1976 would have been less severe.
The overestimate or shortfall in Federal spending in 1976 was small relative to the size of the budget and was typical of recent years (Table 14).
These errors in estimating spending suggest that the ability to forecast Government expenditures precisely is limited, and that the textbook notion of
a truly deterministic level of Government spending is too simple. To the
extent that a regular pattern exists in the difference between actual and
predicted levels of Federal spending, appropriate adjustments can be made
when predicted expenditures are incorporated into economic forecasts. The
shortfall last year is an important reminder of the difficulties in attempting
to fine tune the economy with fiscal policy. This experience suggests that it is
hard to measure the precise magnitude of the policy instruments as well as
to assess their economic effects.
TABLE 14.—Comparison of projected and actual Federal expenditures, national
income and product accounts, fiscal years 1970-76
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Actual less projection
Projection1
Fiscal year
Actual
Amount
1970
1971
1972...
1973
1974
1975
1976
.
.
196.0
212.4
238.2
259.7
286.4
324.4
378.7
.
195.6
212.7
232.9
256.2
278.9
329.5
373.0
-0.4
.3
-5.3
-3.5
-7.5
5.1
-5.7
Percent of
actual
-0.2
-2.3
-1.4
-2.7
1.5
-1.5
1
Projections made in the Budget of the United States Government published in January of the current fiscal year and, except for fiscal year 1976, adjusted for revisions by applying projected percent changes to revised data.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Office of Management and Budget, and Council of
Economic Advisers.
FEDERAL EXPENDITURES AND THE SHORTFALL
The 8.7 percent increase in total Federal expenditures in 1976* was a return to a more typical rate of growth after the exceptionally large increases
in 1974 and 1975 caused by the high rates of unemployment and inflation in
those years (Table 15). The deceleration in 1976 was due mainly to much
smaller increases in transfer payments to individuals and grants-in-aid to
State and local governments.
*Unless otherwise noted, reference is to calendar years and to the Federal sector
in the national income and product accounts (NIPA). The Congressional Budget and
Impoundment Control Act of 1974 changed the fiscal year from July 1-June 30 to
October 1-September 30, beginning with fiscal 1977. The change necessitated a
3-month "transition-quarter" from July 1, 1976 to September 30, 1976.
70
TABLE 15.—Federal Government receipts and expenditures, national income and
product accounts, calendar years 1975—76
[Billions of dollars]
1976
Receipt or expenditure category
1975
Federal Government receipts-
January 1976
budget
projectioni
Actual'
286.5
330.0
330.6
125.7
42.6
23.9
94.3
143.6
55.2
22.8
108.4
145.3
55.9
23.5
105.8
357.8
391.6
388.9
124.4
135.4
133.4
84.3
40.1
88.7
46.7
88.2
45.2
_
148.9
163.0
162.2
To persons
To foreigners
_
Grants-in-aid to State and local governments
___
Net interest paid
Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises.
145.8
3.1
159.2
3.8
159.0
3.2
54.4
23.5
6.5
59.5
28.6
5.1
60.2
27.5
5.6
-71.2
-61.6
-58.3
Personal tax and nontax receipts
Corporate tax accruals
Indirect business tax and nontax accrualsContributions for social insurance
Federal Government expenditures
Purchases of goods and services.
National defense..
Nondefense
Transfer payments
_
_
Surplus or deficit ( - ) .
i January 1976 projected percent changes applied to revised 1975 data.
* Preliminary.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Office of Management and Budget.
The composition of Federal expenditures in 1976 continued the shift away
from defense and toward domestic programs that has been under way since
1967. Defense purchases as a share of total spending were 23 percent in 1976,
down from 48 percent in 1960. Conversely, transfer payments—now the largest single component of Federal spending—and grants-in-aid to State and
local governments have grown markedly in recent years as a result of wider
coverage, higher benefit payments, and new programs. These two categories
accounted for 57 percent of Federal expenditures in 1976, compared with
32 percent in 1960.
There was much discussion about the unexpected shortfall in Federal
expenditures in 1976, its relation to the slowing of real growth during the
year, and its implications for spending in 1977. Actual spending should be
compared with the January projections presented in the 1977 Federal Budget
because the latter incorporated the Administration's plans and expectations
early last year. Moreover a complete translation from the unified budget to
NIPA concepts is readily available only for this set of estimates. On an
NIPA basis the shortfall from the January projection for fiscal 1976 was 1.5
percent of actual expenditures, a difference within the range of recent experience (see Table 14). Despite the fact that the underspending for the year
as a whole was neither exceptionally large nor unprecedented, it was concentrated in a short period and produced a rather sharp rise in the fullemployment surplus in the second quarter (see Table 18).
71
A shortfall in Federal spending of about $3 billion, distributed over a
year as shown in Table 16, could be expected to produce a decline in the
annual growth rate of real GNP of roughly 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point.
Because the shortfall was not sustained throughout the year and because a
major portion was in transfers, which have a low GNP multiplier relative to
purchases, the expected impact of such a change would be smaller. But it
does help explain the weakness in the economy after the spring of 1976.
The Federal expenditure shortfall was concentrated in the second quarter
(Table 16). By the third quarter the underspending was much reduced, and
in the fourth quarter total spending was substantially above projected levels.
TABLE 16.—Federal expenditure shortfall, national income and product
accounts, calendar year 1976
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual ratesi)
1976
Category
II
Yeara
III
-5.5
-13.8
-1.8
10.0
-2.0
-3.5
-4.6
-.4
.5
-~L5
-1.4
-2.2
-.7
-4.0
.0
.1
-.9
-2.8
-4.7
.0
-.2
-2.2
-.6
-3.8
-1.0
.6
-.5
.7
.4
-3.0
-.9
6.3
-1.1
-.3
-.9
-1.3
-1.6
.5
Total expenditures
.8
-.5
-2.8
Purchases of goods and services..
National defense..
Nondefense
Transfer payments..
To persons
To foreigners..
Grants-in-aid to State and local governments.
Net interest paid
Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises
.4
3.7
4.4
1.1
1 Actual expenditures less adjusted January 1976 projections. See note below.
2 Preliminary.
Note.—January 1976 Quarterly projections have been adjusted to revised 1976 data by multiplying the adjusted annual
projection (see Table 15) by the ratio of the original quarterly projections to the original annual projections.
Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Office of Management and Budget, and Council of
Economic Advisers.
The shortfall can be attributed to a combination of lower-than-expected
rates of inflation, unemployment, and interest, as well as to delays in making
new obligations and outlays and to an apparent bias toward overestimation
of expenditures in the budget. The obligation and payment lags primarily
affected purchases, particularly for defense, where unused obligational
authority unexpectedly rose about $10 to $12 billion in the 15-month
period between July 1,1975 and September 30, 1976. Obligation delays were
also responsible for the slowdown in the Federal highway aid program,
which affects the grant component of total expenditures. The spending overrun in the last quarter of 1976 was almost entirely in transfers and grants
and was due to legislation which differed from that assumed in January.
This increase does not appear to have been the result of spending delayed
from earlier in the year.
72
In the unified budget the total shortfall from the January estimate for fiscal 1976 and the transition quarter was $11.4 billion. This figure was significantly larger than in the NIPA Federal sector (Table 17) and was the
TABLE 17.—Reconciliation of estimates of Federal expenditure shortfall, unified
budget and national income and product accounts, fiscal year 1976 and
transition quarter
[Billions of dollars]
Expenditure shortfall *
Category
Fiscal year
1976
Total
Federal budget outlays3
Transition
quarter 2
-11.4
-7.9
-3.5
-3.9
Less: Financial transactions and other asset transfers..
-1.5
-2.4
4.4
2.1
2.3
3.6
.8
3.0
-.9
.6
1.7
_
-3.1
-1.4
-1.7
Equals: Federal expenditures in national income and product accounts..
-6.2
-5.7
-.5
Plus: Defense timing adjustment
Foreign military sales.
Other purchases
Coverage, netting and other timing differences
1 Actual expenditures less January 1976 projections.
»July-September 1976.
3 Excludes outlays of the Export-Import Bank.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Office of Management and Budget.
basis for most of the public discussion about the shortfall. Differences between expenditures on the two bases result from financial transactions and
other asset transfers included in the unified budget but not in the NIPA, certain differences in coverage and netting, and timing discrepancies between
foreign military deliveries and payments, and between cash payments recorded in the unified budget and actual deliveries recorded in the NIPA. Most
of the difference between the unified and NIPA spending shortfalls in 1976
represents unforeseen changes in financial transactions and other asset tranfers and advance payments for military sales abroad. In addition, the shortfall in defense outlays in the unified budget was not completely reflected
in NIPA defense purchases. The slowdown in these outlays was a consequence of delays in making new obligations, largely because of the delay
in passage of the 1976 defense appropriations bill and a lag in adjusting
to substantial increases in budget authority.
While the unified budget presents a fairly comprehensive record of all
receipts and outlays of the Federal Government, the Federal sector of the
NIPA is generally considered a better measure of the Government's impact
on current economic activity. If unified spending deviates from targeted
levels because of unexpected asset transfers or advance payments, the Federal sector in the NIPA is unaffected, since such transactions are likely to
have little direct impact on economic activity. On the other hand, because
the economic effects resulting from defense spending for major procurement
items may occur well before there is a change in NIPA defense purchases,
73
the latter may not immediately reflect the impact of a significant change
in defense activity. Such a phenomenon happened in 1965-66 and may
have occurred in 1976. The shortfall in new obligations and defense spending on a unified basis could explain the softness in defense orders in
mid-1976.
In 1977 the residual economic impact resulting from the shortfall will stem
from a combination of delayed multiplier effects and possible revisions of
spending levels where a catchup or continuing shortfall is expected. In the
1978 budget the fiscal 1977 outlay projections have been revised to incorporate the delayed effects of the shortfall. Outlays for some programs are
expected to be higher than estimated in last year's budget. In other cases
outlays will continue to lag somewhat in 1977. But on balance no significant net increase or decrease in Federal spending is anticipated in 1977 as a
result of last year's shortfall.
TAX LEGISLATION AND FEDERAL RECEIPTS
The antirecession tax cuts enacted in 1975 were continued throughout
1976. The Revenue Adjustment Act of 1975 extended the personal and
corporate tax cuts in the Tax Reduction Act of 1975 for the first 6 months
of calendar 1976. For corporations this legislation included a doubling of
the surtax exemption from $25,000 to $50,000 and a lowering of the regular corporate income tax rate on the first $25,000 of taxable profits from 22
percent to 20 percent. In addition, the maximum investment tax credit on
qualified equipment was increased from 4 to 10 percent for utilities and
from 7 to 10 percent for all other businesses. Altogether these provisions
yielded a net reduction of about $2.5 billion in corporate tax accruals in
1976 from what they would have been under 1974 law.
For individuals the Revenue Adjustment Act provided somewhat larger
tax reductions than the earlier legislation in order to maintain the lower
withholding rates in effect during the last 8 months of 1975. The major
provisions were:
1. A $35 tax credit per dependent, or a credit equal to 2 percent of
taxable income up to $9,000, whichever is larger.
2. An increase in the low-income allowance (minimum standard deduction) from $1,300 per return to $2,100 for a joint return and $1,700
for a single person.
3. An increase in the percentage standard deduction, from 15 percent of
adjusted gross income (with a maximum of $2,000) to 16 percent of
adjusted gross income (with a maximum of $2,800 for a joint return,
or $2,400 for a single return).
4. An extension of the refundable 10 percent earned income credit for
families with dependent children and incomes below $8,000.
The tax credit on purchases of new homes was not extended beyond 1975.
74
The permanent changes in the Tax Reduction Act together with extension
of the temporary provisions in the Revenue Adjustment Act yielded a reduction of about $13.5 billion in personal taxes in 1976 from what they would
have been under 1974 law.
Although the Administration had proposed that the personal and corporate tax reductions due to expire in mid-1976 be enlarged and made permanent, the Tax Reform Act ob 1976 merely extended the provisions of the
Revenue Adjustment Act. In particular, the higher low-income allowance
and percentage standard deductions were made permanent; the personal tax
credits, the reduction in the tax rate on the first $25,000 of corporate income, and the increase in the corporate surtax exemption were extended
through calendar 1977; and the 10 percent investment tax credit was extended through 1980. Thus the Tax Reform Act of 1976 did not produce
any general tax cuts beyond those enacted at the end of 1975. Nor did it
contain any of the special tax incentives proposed by the Administration to
encourage specific types of economic activity. The total of the tax reductions was about $16 billion in 1976, compared with $18/ 2 billion in 1975.
The Tax Reform Act of 1976 also made the first extensive changes in the
tax code since 1969. These changes increased receipts by $0.6 billion in 1976
and are expected to yield a $1.6-billion gain in 1977. Among the more important measures enacted in the new law were unification of estate and gift
taxes, a narrowing of allowable deductions for tax sheltered losses, tighter
rules on personal deductions and exclusions, an increase in the minimum
tax, and an expansion of loss-carryover provisions. Numerous other revisions
were made in the tax law which modified existing tax preferences and added
new ones. Despite these changes the Tax Reform Act of 1976 did not achieve
fundamental reform or simplification of the tax code.
The other tax legislation passed in 1976 was a temporary increase in the
Federal unemployment insurance tax rate from 0.5 percent to 0.7 percent
to become effective January 1, 1977. The amount of wages subject to this
tax was also raised permanently from $4,200 per worker to $6,000 per worker,
effective January 1, 1978. These measures are designed to replenish State
unemployment insurance trust funds. The legislation also extended coverage
under the regular State unemployment compensation tax and benefit system
to about 9 million additional employees in State and local government and
farm and domestic workers, effective January 1, 1978. The Congress did not
enact the Administration's proposed increase in the social security tax rate
to 12.3 percent. Under current law, however, the rate will rise from 11.7
percent to 12.1 percent on January 1, 1978, and the taxable wage base will
rise $1,200 in both 1977 and 1978.
Federal receipts increased by $44 billion to $331 billion in 1976, yielding a
Federal tax share of nominal GNP of 19.5 percent. The strong economy,
continued inflation, and the absence of the 1975 tax rebate were responsible
for the large growth in receipts.
75
THE FISCAL BALANCES
The Federal deficit fell to $58.3 billion in 1976, $3.3 billion less than the
deficit projected in January. The full-employment surplus rose by $2.2
billion for the year (Table 18). The full-employment surplus measures the
difference between total receipts and expenditures under the assumption
that the economy is operating along its potential GNP path. Because the fullemployment surplus is calculated at a constant operating rate for the economy, changes in receipts and expenditures that occur automatically in response to the cyclical behavior of output and employment are eliminated.
Since full-employment expenditures are intended to measure discretionary
shifts in fiscal policy, they include temporary expansions of unemployment
compensation programs designed to counteract cyclical variations in the
economy. For example, full-employment expenditures for 1975 and 1976
include benefits under the Federal supplemental benefits (FSB) program
and the supplemental unemployment assistance (SUA) program created in
December 1974. The full-employment budget numbers presented in Table
18 are based on the Council of Economic Advisers' new estimates of potenTABLE 18.—Actual and full-employment Federal and State and local government
receipts and expenditures, national income and product accounts basis,
calendar years 1970-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
State and local government
Federal Government
Surplus or deficit (—)
Calendar year
Receipts
Expenditures
Amount
Change
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
Operating
surplus
or
deficit
1
(-)
Actual:
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 2
-.
-12.1
-22.0
-17.3
-6.7
-11.5
-71.2
-58.3
-20.6
-9.9
4.7
10.6
-4.8
-59.7
12.9
134.9
152.6
177.4
193.5
210.2
234.3
260.5
132.2
148.9
163.7
180.5
203.0
227.5
246.6
13.7
13.0
7.3
6.9
13.9
-4.0
-3.8
5.6
4.1
-2.8
-5.1
.8
316.5
324.6
333.8
380.3
378.7
391.1
-63.8
-54.1
-57.4
5.6
9.7
-3.3
251.6
254.3
262.0
239.5
245.0
249.3
12.2
9.2
12.7
-.6
-3.8
-.6
201.0
210.0
222.1
257.5
311.8
337.6
371.6
1976:1
II
III
204.2
220.6
244.7
265.0
299.7
357.8
388.9
2.8
3.7
330.6
.__
192.1
198.6
227.5
258.3
288.2
286.5
203 6
219.1
243.6
265.4
297.7
350.1
381.9
-2.6
. -9.2
-21.5
-7.9
14.1
-12.5
-10.3
-6.3
-6.6
-12.3
13.6
22.0
-26.5
2.2
138.1
157.3
179.4
192.9
219.3
255.6
277.7
132.2
148.9
163.7
180.5
203.0
227.5
246.6
6.0
8.3
15.7
12.4
16.4
28.1
31.2
358.5
365.3
376.1
372.6
371.9
384.3
-14.1
-6.7
-8.2
.6
7.4
-1.5
269.2
271.7
279.7
239.5
245.0
249.3
29.7
26.7
30.4
Full-employment:
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
19762
1976:1
II....
III
___
1
Surplus or deficit excluding social insurance funds.
Preliminary.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Office of Management and Budget, and Council of
Economic Advisers.
2
76
tial output and the full-employment unemployment rate, which are discussed in Chapter 1. Thus the levels of the surplus are different from those
reported in previous years. The new benchmarks, however, have little effect
on the period-to-period change in the full-employment surplus, which is the
appropriate measure of the thrust of fiscal policy.
The difference between movements in the actual deficit and full-employment surplus is an indicator of the normal cyclical changes in receipts and
expenditures. Over four-fifths of the drop in the actual Federal deficit
in 1976 was due to an improving economy which automatically raised tax
collections and reduced unemployment insurance payments. The remainder
was largely the result of the unintended shortfall in spending.
The State and local surplus rose to $13.9 billion in 1976. Of the total
increase, slightly more than one-half was the result of higher tax receipts produced by the cyclical economic upturn and a significant increase in Federal
grants. The rest—as shown by the $3.1-billion increase in the State and local
full-employment surplus—was due to trend economic growth and discretionary reductions in the growth of expenditures relative to receipts. The
most significant aspect of State and local finances in 1976 was the restoration
of a surplus in their operating accounts (exclusive of social insurance trust
funds) in the last quarter of the year. This was made possible by the unusually
small increase in State and local expenditures in 1976, together with the
rapid growth in revenues. This fiscal conservatism at the State and local
level reinforced the unexpected restraint coming from the Federal sector.
THE NEW CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET PROCESS
In 1976 Congress fully implemented its new budget procedures for the first
time. The Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974
established a process whereby the Congress is forced to consider overall
receipts and outlays and commit itself under a binding resolution to these
totals. The First Concurrent Resolution on the budget, which must be passed
before May 15 of each year, sets targets for total receipts and outlays and for
the division of outlays among the major functional categories to guide congressional committees in considering new legislation. These targets are
revised in the light of the normal authorization and appropriations process,
and the changes are incorporated in the Second Concurrent Resolution,
which sets a binding floor on receipts and a ceiling on outlays for the coming
fiscal year. The second resolution must be passed before the new fiscal year
begins on October 1. After the Second Concurrent Resolution has been
approved, legislation that raises outlays above the ceiling or reduces receipts
below the established floor cannot be considered unless both Houses of Congress first pass a revised concurrent resolution.
The most obvious benefit of the new procedures is that Congress now
considers the budget as a whole and its impact on the desired course of fiscal
policy and resource allocation. In earlier years, legislation was enacted in a
piecemeal fashion, with little attention to the overall macroeconomic and al-
224-250 O - 77
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ - 6
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
77
locative implications of the resulting tax and spending totals. By setting an
overall ceiling on outlays and a floor on receipts, the Congress is now forced
to consider the tradeoffs among alternative programs. It must also weigh
higher spending against lower taxes for stabilization purposes in making
the long-term choice between a larger or smaller Federal sector. The new
budget process also requires current and future cost estimates for all new
programs, thereby making more explicit the effects of current legislation on
future budgets. The new budget process has thus institutionalized a more
rational procedure for legislative deliberations on the budget and should
make the Congress more aware of the costs and consequences of the programs it enacts.
MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS
Monetary policy in 1976 must be interpreted in the light of financial and
economic developments affecting monetary growth and interest rates during
the year. Less extensive use of demand deposits for transactions purposes
has apparently continued to shift the demand for money downward, reducing the growth of Mi which would otherwise be needed to sustain the
economic expansion. An unusually low rate of growth of Mi relative to
GNP growth is hence not necessarily evidence of a restrictive monetary
policy. But neither is the decline in interest rates during 1976 evidence of
an expansive monetary policy. Both a slowing of economic growth in mid1976 and falling inflationary expectations as inflation rates declined during
the year have contributed to lower interest rates than had been expected.
Appraisal of monetary developments in 1976 therefore requires a careful
examination of monetary growth and the behavior of interest rates during
the year.
GROWTH OF THE MONETARY AGGREGATES
Over the 4 quarters of 1976 the monetary aggregates Mi and M2 grew
by 5.0 and 9.8 percent respectively. The very slow growth in Mi which
began in the latter half of 1975 continued in the first quarter of 1976,
when Mi increased by only 2.7 percent at an annual rate. In the second
quarter Mi expanded rapidly, spurred on by a significant drawdown of
U.S. Treasury deposits, which transferred funds to private demand deposit
accounts in April. After another slowdown in the third quarter, the growth
rate of Mx reaccelerated in the fourth quarter (Chart 5).
The growth of M2 did not vary as much as the growth of Mi during
1976. In the first quarter the growth rate of time and savings deposits at
commercial banks increased sharply because some market interest rates fell
below the rates paid at banks. Thus M 2 increased at a 10.1 percent rate in
the first quarter while Mi increased at only a 2.7 percent rate. By the last
2 months of the second quarter, however, the increase in market interest
rates had caused some slowdown in the inflow to time and savings deposits.
78
For this reason, although the rate of growth of Mx increased by 5.9 percentage points in the second quarter, the rate of growth of M2 increased by
only 1.1 percentage points. As interest rates on marketable securities began
to decline in the second half of the year, the growth of time and savings
deposits picked up again and resulted in a substantial increase in M2.
Chart 5
Growth in Money Stock
PERCENT CHANGE^
15
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
1974
1975
1976
1/ BASED ON AVERAGE OF DAILY FIGURES FOR THE QUARTER.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
The velocity of M±—the ratio of nominal GNP to Mi—grew by about a
3 percent annual rate during the last 3 quarters of 1976, much more slowly
than in the previous 3 quarters. Both a faster rate of Mi growth and a
slower rate of nominal GNP growth contributed to this slowdown. The important question thus raised is whether velocity will again accelerate in
1977 when nominal GNP growth is expected to increase. Some of the slower
velocity growth in the last 3 quarters can be explained by the usual lag in the
adjustment of money balances to changes in nominal GNP growth. This same
lag could provide some stimulus to velocity growth in 1977 if GNP growth
accelerates.
Over the recovery as a whole Mi velocity growth has been somewhat
higher than in previous recovery periods—averaging more than 6 percent
at an annual rate over the last 6 quarters—despite the moderate decline in
interest rates. Regulatory changes and financial innovations, partly induced by the high interest rates which peaked in 1974, have apparently been
a factor in this higher velocity growth, as was noted in Chapter 1. Estimates
of how these changes affect Mi demand are necessarily imprecise, however,
79
and should be used with caution in interpreting monetary developments and
projecting actual monetary growth rates.
Another possible reason for the slow growth in demand for Mi is the unusually weak behavior of business loans at commercial banks during this
recovery. Many banks require compensating balances for their loans in the
form of demand deposits, and businesses sometimes build up deposits at
commercial banks to establish lines of credit in anticipation of loan needs.
If loan demand is unusually weak, as has been the case in this recovery,
Mi growth thus tends to be unusually small. It is therefore possible that a
recovery of loan demand in 1977 could cause an acceleration of the growth
in the demand for Mx.
Econometric estimates of the demand for M2 as a function of GNP, a
money market interest rate, and the average rate on savings deposits provide
evidence that some factors, perhaps the ones mentioned above, have shifted
the demand for money downward. Such an estimated money demand function incorporating lagged adjustments, which has explained the data well
during most of the postwar period, began to shift in early 1974. This shift has
continued during 1976, though at a moderately diminished rate.
FEDERAL RESERVE TOLERANCE RANGES FOR MONETARY GROWTH
In May 1975 the Federal Reserve began to report prospective ranges for
annual growth rates in the monetary aggregates. This practice has continued
with quarterly reports of projected growth rate ranges for the three main
aggregates Mi, M2, and M 3 . These ranges represent Federal Reserve projections of monetary growth rates using the available information about economic conditions and policy intentions at the time projections are made.
The ranges have been at least 2 percentage points wide in each case, the
width of the ranges giving some flexibility to the projection procedure while
preserving the information about the longer-run intentions of the Federal
Reserve. The quarterly updating of the base period adds flexibility, but
when actual growth deviates significantly from the projected range some
adjustment in the range may be necessary to prevent further deviations.
Moreover the ranges themselves are not inflexible and are modified when
emerging economic developments require a change.
Experience with this practice of announcing monetary growth rates
indicates that it can become a constructive addition to the economic policymaking process, helping to stabilize inflationary expectations. The ranges
have also provided information which permits a more enlightened discussion of monetary policy. Their forward-looking perspective has helped to
promote general understanding of the tradeoffs between short-run and
long-run economic goals and to clarify policy makers' intentions.
With the exception of the first projection for the period from March
1975 to March 1976, each range has referred to growth from an average
taken for the most recently completed quarter to an average for the same
80
quarter a year later. The actual growth rates for the 1-year intervals ending
in 1976 have not significantly deviated from the projected ranges (Table 19),
though this alone is not an indication that monetary policy has been successful in achieving ultimate stabilization goals. The growth rate of M 2 has
been inside the projected range for all but one of the four periods, with
more frequent deviations of M 3 above the upper boundary and of Mx below the lower. The largest deviation for Mx was from the third quarter of
1975 to the third quarter of 1976, when Mi grew by only 4.4 percent. Some
of this shortfall, however, may have been due to the unusually high base for
this period, a result of the 1975 tax rebates' effect on the money stock. Thus
a moderate smoothing of the path of Mi from May through September 1975,
to adjust for the impact of these special payments, would bring the growth of
Mx above the lower boundary of 5 percent.
TABLE 19.—Projected and actual growth rates of monetary aggregates, 1975—76
Period
M2
Mi
M3
Percent change from a year earlier:
March 1976:
Projected range *
Actual..
_
__
1976 11:
Projected range1
Actual
1976 111:
Projected range i
Actual
2
9.6
10-12
12.2
__ __
_
1976 IV:
Projected range1
Actual
5-7^
5.2
BMrlOMi
9.6
10-12
12.0
5-7^
4.4
_
_
4.9
WrWA
9.3
9-12
11.5
io79
9-12
12.8
1
Range of percent changes in Mi, M2f and M3 forecast by Federal Reserve for the period and actual percent changes
between periods indicated. Actual quarterly changes are based on quarterly averages.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
INTEREST RATES
Short-term interest rates generally fell during 1976 and by December
were at their lowest levels since 1972 (Chart 6). Only one marked fluctuation
occurred during the year. In the last 2 weeks of April the Federal Reserve
took actions to slow the accelerating growth in the aggregates; and the Federal funds rate began to rise, reaching 5/2 percent in late May. Accompanying the rise in the key money market interest rate, the Treasury
bill rate and the commercial paper rate also increased; but by June the
short-term interest rates again began to decline.
Long-term interest rates also fell during 1976. Moody's Aaa corporate
bond yield fell to 8.0 percent by early December from an average of 8.8
percent in December 1975. Interest rates on less highly rated corporate bonds
fell more sharply, as indicated by the 144 basis point decline in Moody's
Baa corporate bond yield. Mortgage interest rates in the secondary market
also fell during 1976 but by the end of the year had only a negligible impact
on home mortgage rates in the primary market.
81
Chart 6
Interest Rates
PERCENT PER ANNUM
14
12
'
\
\
FEDERAL FUNDS
10
\
CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
\
- V
HIGH-GRADE MUNICIPAL BONDS
3-MONTH TREASURY BILLS
(New issues)
i
i
i
i
I
i
1974
i
i
l
I
I
i
i
i
|
i
I
i
1975
i
i
i
i
I
|
1 |
i
i
I
i
i
i
i
i '
1976
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
SYSTEM, MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION.
At the end of 1976 both short-term and long-term interest rates were
well below the levels reached at the start of the recovery in early 1975.
Declines in interest rates are not typical of an economic expansion. The 1976
experience results in part from a decline in the expected rate of inflation,
which has apparently accompanied the decline in actual inflation rates. The
decline in longer-term interest rates, however, may have been smaller than
the decline in the expected long-term rate of inflation. If so, the real rate of
interest—one measure of the impact of monetary policy on the economy—
has not decreased.
OTHER FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS
Nonfinancial corporations have lengthened the average maturity of their
debt during the recovery. With severe liquidity problems at the start of
1975, brought on by unusually large short-term borrowing in previous years,
most businesses aimed at restructuring their balance sheets by increasing
their long-term borrowing relative to short-term borrowing and by holding
more liquid assets such as Treasury bills. The U.S. Treasury's borrowing
strategy has shifted in a similar direction in 1976, with 89 percent of the increase in marketable interest-bearing public debt in the form of longermaturity coupon issues, compared to 53 percent in 1975.
Partly as a result of the desire of business firms for increased liquidity,
commercial and industrial loans at commercial banks declined throughout
the first half of the year, as they have generally done during the recovery,
but a marked upturn in business loans began in October 1976. As was true
of the temporary turnaround in late 1975, a large proportion of this
increase was in the form of bankers' acceptances—short-term money market
instruments counted as bank loans—an indication that the turnaround again
might be temporary.
In 1976 internal financing covered about 90 percent of total capital outlays
for nonfinancial corporate business compared with more than 100 percent
in 1975 when inventories were being liquidated. The fraction, however,
remains well above any seen since the mid-1960s, and business use of external
funds remains relatively weak. As the growth of investment continues in
1977, the internal financing fraction should continue to decline and the
dependence on external finance should increase.
Proportionately more of the increase in long-term funds raised from external sources by business corporations in early 1976 was in the form of equities
(Table 20), but this trend was interrupted in the third quarter. Stock market prices were higher in 1976 than in 1975, although they remained relatively steady during the year.
Increased borrowing in the household sector absorbed most of the declining share of U.S. Government borrowing in 1976. Home mortgage borrowing increased sharply in the third quarter and accounted for most of the net
change in total mortgages during this period. Flows into thrift institutions,
especially into savings and loan associations, were stimulated by declining
market interest rates relative to deposit rates, and they provided the major
share of funds to support this demand for mortgages.
TABLE 20.—Funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors, 1971—76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1976
1975
Sector and credit market instrument
Corporate debt instruments
Corporate equities
Households2
Home mortgages
Consumer credit
Foreign
1
..
1
II
III
IV
1
II
178.6
Total funds raised _
U.S. Government
State and local government _
Nonfinancial business l
1971-74
average
156.9
211.6
222.0
250.9
233.6
250.3
258.8
15.1
16.6
82.9
59.6
11.7
43.3
102.0
16.0
40.9
94.0
16.3
43.8
85.2
15.4
62.6
73.4
12.0
60.5
74.2
21.4
65.5
78.9
18.9
56.0
56.7
8.6
27.3
7.7
19.2
12.9
24.3
6.9
37.9
12.2
32.8
12.6
34.1
14.0
31.9
6.1
56.4
33.9
44.0
54.2
66.6
71.1
74.6
87.0
37.7
15.4
28.5
38.5
.9
1.3
42.2
14.3
48.2
17.7
51.5
18.1
53.2
20.6
60.6
19.2
7.7
8.3
8.8
13.8
21.1
16.6
14.7
18.0
Also includes farm and nonfarm noncorporate not shown separately.
2 Also includes mortgages other than home, bank loans n.e.c, and other loans.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
III
83
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME
TRANSFER PROGRAMS
The improvement in the economy last year was reflected in the labor
market: employment increased, unemployment declined, and benefits from
income transfer programs were lower in comparison with 1975. The improvement in employment was stronger in the first half of 1976. While the
unemployment rate fell during the first half, it increased during the second
half.
EMPLOYMENT
Total civilian employment estimated from household survey data increased
3.2 percent last year over the 1975 average (Table 21). The increase was
TABLE 21.—Labor market indicators, 1974-76
[Quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
1976
Indicator
1974
1975
1976
1975
IV
III
Millions of persons
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Civilian labor force
91.0
92.6
94. 8
93. 1
93.6
94. 5
95.3
95.7
Employment
Unemployment
85.9
5.1
84.8
7.8
87. 5
7. 3
85. 2
7. 9
86.5
7.1
87. 5
7. 0
87.8
7.5
88.1
7.6
Percent *
Civilian labor force participation r a t e * . . .
61.2
61.2
61.6
61.1
61.2
61.6
61.8
61.8
5.6
1.0
8.5
2.7
7.7
2.5
8.4
3.1
7.6
2.7
7.4
2.2
7.8
2.4
7.9
2.6
3.8
5.5
16.0
2.7
6.7
8.0
19.9
5.1
5.9
7.4
19.0
4.2
6.9
7.9
19.6
5.1
5.8
7.4
19.2
4.1
5.7
7.1
18.8
4.1
6.0
7.7
18.8
4.4
6.2
7.6
19.1
4.4
3.3
6.7
4.7
11.7
4.6
9.4
4.8
11.2
4.6
9.3
4.6
9.0
4.7
9.8
4.6
9.7
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
All civilian workers
Unemployed 15 weeks or longer'___
Demographic groups
Men 20 years and over
Women 20 years and over
Both sexes 16-19 years
Married men, spouse presentOccupation
White-collar workers..
Blue-collar workers...
Industry
Nonagricultural private wage and salary
workers 4
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Nondurable goods..
Transportation and public utilities...
Wholesale and retail trade.
Finance and service industries
Government workers
Agricultural wage and salary workers
5.7
9.2
7.9
9.0
7.9
7.6
8.1
8.1
10.6
5.7
5.4
6.2
3.2
6.4
4.6
18.1
10.9
11.3
10.4
5.6
8.7
6.6
15.6
7.9
7.7
8.1
5.0
8.6
6.5
17.5
10.1
10.5
9.6
5.2
9.1
6.9
15.8
7.8
7.9
7.7
4.7
8.6
6.5
15.3
7.5
7.4
7.7
4.7
8.3
6.3
16.4
8.0
7.6
8.7
5.1
8.8
6.5
14.9
8.2
7.9
8,7
5.5
8.7
6.8
3.0
7.3
4.0
10.3
4.4
11.7
4.2
11.0
4.4
11.0
4.5
11.6
4.3
11.1
4.4
12.9
» Unemployment as percent of civilian jabor force in group specified, except as noted.
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.
Unemployment as percent of total civilian labor force.
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3
1
4
84
widespread among demographic groups. Since the first quarter of 1975,
when the trough in employment was reached, civilian employment has
increased by 4.4 percent, compared to 3.9 percent in the 7 quarters following
the trough of the 1957-58 recession.
Payroll employment increased 2.8 percent in 1976 over the 1975 level and
2.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 1975 to the fourth quarter of 1976.
The rate of increase in jobs from the last quarter of 1975 to the last quarter
of 1976 varied substantially among the sectors of the economy. Employment
rose by 4.2 percent in durable goods manufacturing and in the private
service-producing sectors by 2.8 percent. In other sectors, however, there was
little or no change. Perhaps most notable is that State and local government
payroll employment, after growing by 4.8 percent from the fourth quarter of
1974 to the fourth quarter of 1975, increased by only 1.8 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1975 to the fourth quarter of 1976. The 3.7 percent increase
in payroll employment since the first quarter of 1975 was little more than
half the increase recorded during the 7 quarters following the 1957-58
recession trough.
UNEMPLOYMENT
Although the unemployment rate declined in 1976 it remained substantially above the 1974 level (Table 21). The official seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from the fourth quarter of 1975 to the second
quarter of 1976 and increased in the last 2 quarters. The unemployment rate
in the last quarter exceeded that of the first quarter.
The quarterly movements in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
are sensitive to the seasonal adjustment procedure that is adopted, particularly when there are large swings in unemployment because of a severe
recession or sudden changes in seasonality. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS) recognizes that analytically there is no unique or unambiguously
superior seasonal adjustment procedure and provides data adjusted under
several alternative procedures. The procedure used to compute the official
unemployment rate gives a heavier weight to the more recent experience than
the procedure applied to other statistics. Because large changes in unemployment occurred during the course of 1974 and 1975, the official seasonal
adjustment procedure may have exaggerated the movements in the unemployment rate last year.
One of the alternative seasonal adjustment procedures used by BLS is to
assume that there has been no change over time in the seasonality in employment and in unemployment within age-sex groups for the years 1967 to 1973
and to exclude the experience of the recent recession. Unemployment rates
adjusted according to the stable seasonality procedure suggest more gradual
changes throughout the year than the official statistics and about the same
unemployment rate during the last quarter as during the first quarter of
1976. Under this procedure the unemployment rate was 8.3 percent in the
fourth quarter of 1975, 7.8 percent in the first quarter of 1976, 7.5 percent in
85
the second quarter, 7.7 percent in the third quarter, and 7.8 percent in the
fourth quarter. This approach, however, does not allow for possible changes
over time in the seasonality of age-sex specific unemployment rates that may
have accompanied the dramatic changes in the composition of the labor
force. Of course differences in seasonal adjustment procedures have no
effect on the unemployment rate for the year as a whole.
Last year's decline in unemployment rates was widespread among demographic groups, though the rate fell more sharply for men than for women.
One reason is the greater concentration of male workers in cyclically
sensitive blue-collar jobs. Another was the rapid increase in the participation
of females in the labor force, an increase which retarded the decline in their
unemployment rate in spite of the rise in female employment.
The decrease in unemployment rates by occupation and industry in 1976
mirrored the cyclical increase in 1974-75. By occupation, the unemployment rate of white-collar workers was essentially the same in 1975 and 1976,
but blue-collar workers' unemployment rate fell by over 2 percentage points.
In 1976 the unemployment rates in construction, manufacturing, and transportation and public utilities were lower than in 1975, but in the other private service-producing industries the unemployment rates in 1976 about
equaled the 1975 levels. Unemployment rates in 1976 were substantially
higher than in 1975 and 1974 for government workers and agricultural wage
and salary workers.
The persistence of relatively high unemployment rates in 1976 for government and agricultural wage and salary workers may in part reflect the slow
growth in government employment and a continued adjustment to SUA,
which came into effect in the first quarter of 1975. SUA provided unemployment compensation coverage for the first time for the 12 million wage and
salary workers not covered by a regular Federal or State program, most of
these being State and local government or agricultural wage and salary
workers. The availability of these benefits may have encouraged some persons who became unemployed for seasonal or other reasons to extend their
period of unemployment and job search rather than take a less desirable job
or drop out of the labor force. (The effects of the unemployment compensation system on the unemployment rate are discussed in greater detail in
Chapter 4.)
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
The civilian labor force participation rate increased sharply last year
compared to 1974 and 1975 (Table 21). The increase was largely concentrated among women. For women aged 20 and over the participation rate
rose from, 46.0 perecent in 1975 to 47.0 in 1976,.more than offsetting a 0.4
percentage point decline in the participation rate among adult men which
continued a long-term trend. The teenage labor force participation rate increased somewhat, by 0.5 percentage point to 54.6 percent in 1976.
The increase in female labor force participation is in part a continuation
86
of longer-term trends. Over the past 2 decades, for example, the labor force
participation rate of women aged 20 and over has risen 11 percentage points
from 36 percent in 1956. This change reflects a combination of related
factors: increased potential earnings in the labor market; later marriages; a
decline in birth rates; more efficient production in the home because of such
time-saving consumer durables as freezers and dishwashers, and such nondurables as frozen foods and wash-and-wear clothing; and a change in
attitudes concerning the roles of men and women. The expanded employment opportunities in 1976 compared to the previous year may also have
encouraged greater labor force participation by women.
The increase in labor force participation by adult females last summer
appears to be larger than one would have predicted on the basis of the
secular and cyclical factors. The rise in the participation rate from 46.6
percent in the first 5 months to 47.3 percent in July and August, and the
decline to 47.2 percent in the following 3 months may be traceable in part
to the effect of SUA, which provided a new incentive for women in the educational services industry, and perhaps in other sectors, to remain in the
labor force rather than withdrawing during the summer.
In summary, the substantial increase in employment (2.7 million persons)
last year was accompanied by a very strong growth in the civilian labor
force (2.2 million persons). The labor force growth resulted mainly from the
increase in the population aged 16 and over, the secular increase in overall
labor force participation rates, and the economic recovery to the extent that it
encouraged persons to enter or remain in the labor force. The result of these
factors was that only a moderate decline occurred in the number of unemployed persons (0.5 million).
INCOME TRANSFER PROGRAMS
A major concern of public policy in a recession is to mitigate the loss of
family income among those who become unemployed. Cushioning this loss
helps to maintain consumer purchases and thereby facilitates economic recovery. It also provides for a broader sharing of the economic burden created
by a recession. With the improvement in the economy in 1976, benefits under
income transfer programs declined (Table 22).
Unemployment compensation is the most important countercyclical income transfer program. As unemployment increases because of layoffs, the
number of recipients increases; with the recall of workers the number of
recipients declines. This pattern appeared in the last 2 years during the
decline in economic activity and in the subsequent recovery (Table 22).
The ability of the unemployment compensation system to respond to the
economic downturn was strengthened by two temporary programs. Under
FSB the duration of entitlement for persons covered by a regular program
was extended in two 13-week installments to a maximum of 65 weeks. Benefit durations under FSB were reduced in 1976 in States with lower insured
unemployment rates, and FSB is scheduled to terminate this March.
87
TABLE 22.—Income transfer programs, 1974-76
1975
Program
Unit
19 76
1974
IV
1
II
III
IV
1
II
III
Unemployment:
Total number of persons
Millions . .
5.6
8.3
8.0
7.8
7.2
7.9
7.0
7.3
Unemployment Compensation:
Beneficiaries: Total
Permanent programs
FSB and SUA*
Millions*
do
do
2.3
2.3
5.1
4.7
.4
5 5
4.8
.7
5 3
4.0
1.3
4 8
3.5
1.3
5 2
4.1
1.1
4 3
3.2
1.1
4 2
3.1
1 1
Billions of dollars *_
. do
...do . .
7.8
7.8
17.3
16.2
1.1
19.0
16.7
2.3
18.6
14.7
3.9
17.6
13.2
4.4
20.5
15.5
5.0
16.0
12.2
3.8
13.1
10.9
2.2
Food Stamp Program:
Beneficiaries
Benefit payments _
Millions»
15.9
Billions of dollars <_ 4.0
18.6
4.9
19.2
5.0
18.6
5.2
18.5
5.1
18.8
5.6
18.2
5.4
17.3
5.1
Aid to Families with Dependent Children:
Beneficiaries: Total
UnemD1oved fathers
Millions5
do
10 9
4
11 3
5
11.3
.5
11.3
.5
11.4
.6
11.5
.7
11.3
.7
11.2
.6
8.4
8.9
8.9
9.3
9.8
10.1
9.9
IV
10.0
Benefit payments: Totals
Permanent programs
FSB and SUA
Benefit payments3 __
Billions of dollars <_
Old-age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance:
Beneficiaries: Total 9
Retired workers and dependents.
Disabled persons and dependents
31.1
31.5
31.9
32.3
32.4
32.6
32.9
19.8
19.9
20.1
20.3
20.5
20.5
20.6
20.9
do
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.6
60.6
63.0
67.1
68.3
69.4
71.4
75.3
76.8
8.8
13.4
9.0
14.3
8.7
13.7
9.0
14.6
9.4
15.3
9.3
15.3
9.1
15.8
Billions of dollars*. 13.7
Medicare:
Benefit payments
31.1
19.6
Millions5
8.2
Billions of dollars *- 11.9
Medicaid:
Beneficiaries
Benefit payments
30.7
do
Billions of dollars *. 56.8
Benefit payments 7
Supplemental Security
come:
Beneficiaries
Benefit payments3
Millions5
7.0
14.9
15.4
15.5
16.5
17.3
18.3
18.6
4.1
5.6
4.2
5.6
4.3
5.9
4.3
6.0
4.3
6.0
4.3
6.0
4.3
6.2
InMillions 5
Billions of dollars *
4.0
5.5
4.3
6.2
1 Weekly average.
Federal supplemental benefits (FSB) and special unemployment assistance (SUA).
3 Includes State as well as Federal payments.
< Annual rate.
«Monthly average.
• Total also includes survivors.
7
In current payment status.
2
Sources: Department of Agriculture, Department of Labor, and Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
SUA provided temporary coverage and a maximum duration of benefits of
39 weeks for the 12 million wage and salary workers not previously covered
by a regular Federal or State program. Under the Unemployment Compensation Amendments Act of 1976 about 9 million of the 12 million persons
covered by SUA are to be brought under the regular State programs by
January 1978, and SUA will not take any new claims from that date.
The other cash transfer programs are less cyclically sensitive. Aid
to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), social security, and the supplemental security income program (SSI) provide benefits largely to lowincome fatherless families, the aged, and the disabled—groups whose employ-
88
ment and earnings show little cyclical sensitivity (Table 22). These programs
are nevertheless major sources of income redistribution. In 1976 total benefits were $10 billion under AFDC, $73 billion under social security, and $6
billion under SSI.
The AFDC program for unemployed fathers (AFDC-UF), now available
in 28 States, grew significantly in 1976, though it is still a small program. AFDC-UF benefits had been available only to families with low income and few assets and with an unemployed father not eligible for
unemployment compensation. In June 1975, however, the Supreme Court
ruled that a State with the program could not deny AFDC-UF benefits
simply because the father was eligible for unemployment compensation,
thus permitting such fathers to choose between the programs. For low-income
families with several dependents, benefits under AFDC-UF may exceed
those available under unemployment compensation. The average monthly
cash benefit among AFDC-UF families was $325 in the first half of 1976,
about the same as the average monthly unemployment compensation benefit.
Because they tend to have low earnings when they work, the average AFDCUF claimant would have a lower than average unemployment compensation benefit. In addition, participation in AFDC-UF includes categorical
eligibility for food stamps and medicaid. As more low-income families
became aware of these greater benefits and as more workers exhausted their
FSB entitlement, AFDC-UF participation increased. From June 1974 to
June 1975, when the unemployment rate increased from 5.3 percent to
8.7 percent, AFDC-UF participation rose from 86,000 families to 112,000
families. By June 1976 the unemployment rate had fallen to 7.6 percent,
but participation had increased to 146,000 families.
There are three major in-kind income transfer programs: medicaid, medicare, and food stamps. Medicaid subsidized medical care for persons on
AFDC, and for other low-income persons who are medically indigent, at a
cost of $15 billion in 1976. Medicare provided medical insurance at a cost
of $18 billion for the aged and disabled receiving social security benefits
and for persons with end-stage renal (kidney) disease. These programs exhibit some cyclical sensitivity. The food stamp program, which provides
subsidized food vouchers for low-income families, is the most cyclically
sensitive in-kind income transfer program. With the improvement in the
economy the average monthly participation in the food stamp program decreased, although at an annual rate the program costs were about the
same as in 1975 (Table 22).
One measure of the adverse impact of a recession is its effect on the
poverty rate, the proportion of the population represented by families or
unrelated individuals with money incomes below the poverty level. The
poverty threshold in 1975 for a nonfarm family of four was officially defined
as $5,500 in money income as measured in the March 1976 supplement to
the Current Population Survey. Because of the growth over time in real
family money income, the poverty rate declined from 22.4 percent in 1959
89
(the earliest data available) to 11.1 percent in 1973. In the recessions
occurring during this period poverty either declined more slowly or actually
increased, while during periods of rapid economic expansion the poverty
rate fell sharply.
The most recent period is no exception. The poverty rate increased by 0.5
percentage point (1.3 million persons) from 1973 to 1974 and by 1.1 percentage points (2.5 million persons) from 1974 to 1975. Given the severity
of the downturn, as measured by the unemployment rate and real disposable
personal income, the increase in poverty is somewhat smaller than would
have been expected. Past experience suggests that the increase would have
been 0.7 percentage point from 1973 to 1974 and 1.3 percentage points from
1974 to 1975. Moreover the extent of the increase in poverty would have
been smaller if the value of in-kind income transfer benefits, such as the
food stamp subsidy and the insurance premium value of medicaid were
counted as income.
ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS
Since late 1973 world petroleum prices have risen by over 350 percent
as the posted price of crude oil produced in the Persian Gulf increased
from $2.59 per barrel to about $12 per barrel. The economic recovery in
1976 promoted an increase in energy consumption, though higher prices
held consumption below the previous peak. Adjusting the quantity and mix
of sources of energy consumed in the United States has been slowed because
such adjustment requires extensive changes in the capital stock of the country
and because the prices of domestic petroleum and natural gas are held below
world price levels by controls. The United States has apparently adjusted
less rapidly than other developed countries. This has contributed to increased
U.S. dependence upon imports, exposing the economy to greater risk of externally imposed damage.
CONSUMPTION
Energy consumption increased in 1976 after 2 consecutive years of decline. The economic recovery was sufficiently strong to increase energy consumption by about 3 5/2 percent in spite of higher prices, an abnormally warm
winter, and a cooler than usual summer. Energy consumption has been
lowered compared with the level that would have existed if it had not been
for the price increases of 1973-75. In the household-commercial sector,
changes in energy usage followed movements in real disposable income for
the first 2 years after the late 1973 price increase (Table 23). In the
most recent 4 quarters, however, changes in energy consumption have been
far smaller than the growth in real disposable income, suggesting a gradually growing response to price increases. In the manufacturing and transportation sectors as well, energy consumption has increased less rapidly than
would have been predicted on the basis of the growth in manufacturing
90
production or real GNP, and this also implies a continuing response to the
price rise.
The amount of substitution of alternative energy inputs for petroleum
to date has not been great. While coal is being substituted for petroleum,
increased amounts of petroleum are being used to make up for shortages of
natural gas. Petroleum as a percentage of total energy inputs in manufacturing increased from 27 percent in 1973 to 30 percent in 1976. Usage of
petroleum by utilities dropped 1 percent. The share of coal in total energy
used in manufacturing remained constant between 1973 and 1976, while
utilities increased their consumption of coal from 56 to 62 percent of all
fossil fuel inputs.
TABLE 23.—Changes in energy consumption and relevant economic indicators by final
consumption sector, 1950—76
[Percent]
Energy
consumption in
household
and commercial
sector
Real disposable
personal
income
Energy
consumption in
industrial
sector
Manufacturing
production
Energy
consumption for
transportation
2.9
4.1
4 6
5 5
3.5
3.3
2.7
4 7
3.9
4.8
3.5
1.3
3 4
4.2
1.8
5 3
2.4
6 5
3 5
6.9
2.6
1.9
3 3
5.1
4.7
4.2
2.4
4.7
3.0
4.7
-1 8
1.9
-1.6
1.7
-2.9
-8.3
—3
-10.1
-3.4
.6
-1.7
-1.8
1974: 1
II
III _
IV
-4.8
- .6
-1.4
.6
.2
-1.4
-1.9
-3.3
2 3
1.6
1.1
-5.8
-7.3
-2.6
-2.6
-1.0
.0
-.8
-1.9
-4.1
1975: 1
II
III
IV..
3.7
3.2
1.5
-1.0
-2.2
3.5
1.8
4.0
-1.1
-5.0
y
-4.'8
-5.1
-13.1
-11.0
-4.7
-14.5
-14.4
-9.6
-1.3
3.9
1.3
-.6
-1.9
-5.6
-3.6
-.3
2.3
1976: 1
II
III
2.7
-1 6
1.6
6.3
2.4
4.1
.4
11.4
5.9
13.9
15.1
9.8
3.7
3.5
4.6
7.3
7.0
5.2
Period
Real
GNP
Annual average change:
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
to
to
to
to
to
1955
1960.
1965
1970
1973.
Change from preceding year:
1974
1975
Change from a year earlier to:
Note.—Energy consumption includes distribution generation losses.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Interior (Bureau of Mines)
Federal Energy Administration, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
PRODUCTION
Imports of oil increased while domestic production of crude oil and natural gas declined again in 1976; however, production of bituminous coal
continued to grow.
The decline in the production of crude oil which began in 1970 continued in 1976, although the rate of decline slowed to 2.6 percent from a
4.7 percent decline in 1975. The decrease in petroleum production has to
some extent been caused by price controls on all or part of the output of
91
domestic wells since 1971. From May 1973 to February 1976 roughly twothirds of U.S. oil production was under price controls. From February
1976 to September 1976 all U.S. output was controlled. In September 1976
controls were lifted from stripper wells, which produce less than 10 barrels
a day and account for 14 percent of total U.S. output. The number of oil
and gas wells drilled and the total footage of such wells increased in 1976 to
the level last recorded in the early 1960s, although many drilling rigs were
idle through part of the year. Production from the Elk Hills Naval Petroleum Reserve was begun, and a number of problems which had prevented
production of crude oil from offshore leases in California were surmounted.
After numerous delays progress on the Alaskan pipeline set the stage for
delivery of the first production from the North Slope in late 1977.
Production of bituminous coal increased by 2j/i percent in 1976 and
reached a postwar record level. From 1973 to 1976 the production of coal
increased 12 percent, as coal production capacity has expanded in response
to higher coal prices.
Total marketed production of natural gas, which had been declining
since 1973, appears to have stabilized in 1976. The stabilization of production masks a continuing trend to withhold new production from interstate
markets in favor of intrastate markets, where a higher price is offered. The
interstate market for natural gas has apparently been bearing the full brunt
of the declines in total marketed production since 1973. Thus Federal
price controls are not only causing reductions in U.S. production but also
distorting the distribution of available supplies.
There were only small increases in production from other energy sources,
primarily nuclear power and hydropower. Hydropower production is limited by the physical capacity of hydropower plants as well as by the amount
of rainfall. Production from nuclear power plants was constrained by licensing and operating problems. Although the maximum dependable capacity
of nuclear power plants increased by 10.3 percent from the end of 1975 to
July 1976, production increased by only 6.0 percent; operating rates declined to 52.0 percent of capacity from the average 55.0 percent recorded
in 1975.
IMPORTS
The increase in demand for petroleum and the decline in domestic production implied increased imports of petroleum during 1976. In some measure the increase in petroleum imports represents the natural response to the
greater demand created by the economic recovery. Much of the increase,
however, is the result of a policy which sets consumer prices by averaging
higher-priced imports and lower-priced domestic output. Imports, the marginal supply of petroleum in the United States, are being subsidized by the
price controls, which discourage conservation and expansion of domestic
production. Petroleum imports averaged 7.2 million barrels a day, up 14
92
percent from 1973. The cost of petroleum imports has risen from $7.5 billion
in 1973 to $32 billion in 1976. Imports currently represent 41 percent of U.S.
oil consumption, compared with 29 percent in 1972. Although countries of
the Western Hemisphere, primarily Venezuela and Canada, supplied about
two-thirds of U.S. imports of petroleum in 1973, less than half came from
the Western Hemisphere in 1976.
The 1976 increase in imports was concentrated in crude oil rather than
refined products. Since 1973 total petroleum imports have increased from
6.3 million barrels a day to approximately 7.2 million; but imports of petroleum products have declined from 3 million barrels a day to less than 2 million. This substitution is a result of expansion in refining capacity and
implementation of the Federal Energy Administration's (FEA) entitlement
programs, which provide substantial price protection to U.S. refineries.
PRICES
The increase in energy prices, which had exceeded 10 percent per year
during 1974 and 1975, slowed significantly during 1976. Contributing
to this moderation was the Energy Policy and Conservation Act,
which was passed by the Congress in December 1975 and became effective in February 1976. This act caused an initial reduction of 8.8 percent in the price of crude oil produced within the United States and prescribed that the rate of increase of crude oil prices would equal the rate of
inflation as measured by the GNP deflator plus up to 3 percent, as a production incentive until the act expired in 1979. In its attempts to comply with
the provisions of the act, FEA froze the price of crude oil at the June 1976
level as of July. Consequently, U.S. crude oil prices have fallen even farther
below the price of imports.
Prices charged to consumers did not reflect the decline in domestic crude
oil prices last year (Table 24). The average price of crude oil entering refineries, including imported crude oil, increased during the last year, although the price of domestic crude production fell 7 percent. The prices of
fuel oil and gasoline had surpassed the December 1975 levels by mid-1976.
During 1976 price controls were removed from distillate fuel oils, residual
fuel oils, and miscellaneous products. Gasoline, commercial jet fuels, propane, and certain other products remained under controls. Consumer prices
of products that were no longer under price controls rose no faster than
prices of those products still under control.
The average price of natural gas continued to increase during 1976; but
at about 54 cents per thousand cubic feet (mcf) it remained well below the
price of the nearest substitute, oil, owing to the effects of the continued regulation by the Federal Power Commission (FPC) of gas sold for resale in
interstate markets. Prices of domestic gas entering the regulated interstate
pipelines rose from 30 cents per mcf for the 12 months ending June 1975 to
39 cents for the 12 months ending June 1976. In mid-1976, prices for im93
224-250 O - 77 - 7
TABLE 24.—Changes in consumer prices of energy items, 1966-76
[Percent]
Period
Total energy
items i
Electricity
Fuel oil 2
Gasolines
Gas
Average annual change:
1966 to 1969
1969 to 1972
2.1
3.1
1.2
5.0
2.8
3.4
2.6
.9
0.9
6.0
8 0
29.3
10.6
7.1
5 0
18.1
13.2
15.4
58.8
8.3
9.8
35.4
6.8
4.6
12.5
19.9
Change from a year earlier:
1973
1974
1975
1976
1 Also includes coal and motor oil. not shown separately.
2 Fuel oil No. 2.
* Regular and premium gasoline.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
ported and some newly contracted intrastate gas ranged between $1.67 and
$1.71 per mcf.
During 1976 the FPG lifted the ceiling price to 93 cents per mcf for gas
first dedicated for sale in interstate commerce in 1973 and 1974. The price
allowed for gas first sold in interstate commerce in 1975 and 1976 was set
at $1.42 per mcf. The FPC also raised the minimum price for what is termed
old gas.
The extent to which these price changes will affect demand is limited
by the practice of basing consumer charges on the average cost of gas, including the gas purchased under the previously lower regulated price. Consequently these price actions will not eliminate the shortage of natural gas
for interstate trade though they will help to reduce it.
The average price of coal sold under long-term contracts continued
to increase during 1976 at a rate approximately parallel to the rate of
inflation in the economy at large. The price of bituminous coal in spot
markets, however, continued to decline during 1976 from peaks reached
during the coal strike of 1974.
Electricity prices rose at a 7.2 percent annual rate through the first
9 months of 1976 with rate increases awarded by regulatory authorities to
offset the past decline in revenues from electricity consumption. As growth
in the demand for electricity resumed in mid-1976, requests for these revenue-sustaining increases began to diminish.
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENTS
Increased crop and livestock production last year resulted in the smallest
food price increases since 1971, the food CPI averaging 3 percent above
1975. At the same time, farm income remained close to the 1975 level.
Last year's relatively stable situation provides a vantage point from which
to assess the adjustments of the agricultural sector to the relative price
changes of the preceding 3J4 years.
94
COMMODITY MARKETS AND FOOD PRICES
World grain (including rice) production in the 1976-77 marketing year is
estimated to be 8 percent greater than the preceding year, a record harvest
and sufficient to add over 40 million metric tons to world stocks. This would
be the first substantial addition to world stocks in 5 years.
While much attention has been given to weather uncertainties in recent
years, world production of all grains has been relatively stable. Because shortfalls in individual countries have to some extent been offsetting, world production has not fallen as much as 3 percent below trend levels in any year
since 1960. However, relatively small variations in production can cause large
price fluctuations because of the inelasticity of world supply and demand,
especially with the much-reduced level of world carryover stocks of grain in
recent years. Price fluctuations in the United States during 1972-75 were
further increased in size by policies in other countries, which attempted to
insulate their prices from world supply and demand conditions. The result
was to leave a disproportionate amount of consumption and production
adjustment to countries which follow relatively free-trade, market-oriented
policies. Chief among these is the United States.
In response to the high crop prices of 1972-75, and accommodating farm
policies, U.S. farmers in 1976 harvested record crops of wheat and corn for
the second consecutive year. The large crops allowed substantial rebuilding of
stocks, especially of wheat. U.S. carryover stocks from 1976 food grain supplies are expected to be around 28 million metric tons for wheat and 2 million
tons for rice, roughly half a year's total utilization for each. At the end of
1976 farm prices were substantially lower than a year earlier for wheat and
rice, and slightly lower for corn. For soybeans, however, prices were much
higher as strong domestic and foreign demand, coupled with a reduced U.S.
crop, indicated that carryover stocks might be drawn down near minimum
levels in 1977.
The lower food grain prices were reflected in an estimated 1 percent decline between the fourth quarter of 1975 and the fourth quarter of 1976 in
the cereal and bakery product component of the CPI. But grain prices influence the food sector primarily through livestock markets. Favorable ratios of livestock to feed prices in 1975 resulted in large increases in meat
production in 1976. Compared to production figures a year earlier, pork production was up 8 percent, beef up S1/^ percent, and broilers up 12 percent.
Milk production increased 4 percent, the largest annual rise since 1953.
Beef production was high not only because of increased marketing of
grain-fed cattle, but also because cattlemen continued to cut back their
breeding herds, which had been overbuilt in the early 1970s. The resulting
addition to last year's meat supplies helped depress prices, but the reduction
in cattle numbers set the stage for higher beef prices in the future.
Consumption of red meats and poultry last year rose an estimated 7 percent from 1975. The relative price of meats as measured by the red meats
95
and poultry CPI deflated by the overall CPI fell an estimated 6j/s> percent
below the 1975 average. Taking into account changes in income and population, the increased quantities consumed implied a larger response of consumption to the price decline or the income increase than is found in most
econometric studies of demand for meats.
Consumer prices for other food categories, including fruits and vegetables
and dairy products, increased faster than the overall CPI during 1976.
There were especially sharp increases for coffee, eggs, and fish. But cereals
and meats declined suffiiently during the year to make the increase in the
food CPI only an estimated 1 percent from the fourth quarter of 1975 to the
fourth quarter of 1976 and 3 percent from year-average 1975 to 1976.
FARM INCOME
Preliminary estimates indicate that last year's real income from farm and
other sources per farm household was high by historical standards for the
fifth straight year, even though it was substantially below the 1973 peak. U.S.
Department of Agriculture data on disposable income per capita for the
farm and nonfarm populations give some basis for comparing farm and
nonfarm economic well-being (Table 25). Comparison is difficult, however,
because of differences in the cost of living and in the number of persons per
household, as well as nonpecuniary differences between farm and nonfarm work and greater capital gains arising from farm real estate. Commercial farmers with annual gross sales of $20,000 or more per year earned
higher average incomes than the nonfarm population throughout the 1970s.
This group accounted for 89 percent of the farm products sold in 1975. In
1975 they earned a mean income per household of $24,980, after tax but
including income in kind, but the aggregate conceals wide variations in returns. In particular, many cattle feeders and sugar beet and cane producers
experienced losses last year, although in some recent years they earned
large profits.
The changes in product and factor prices that lay behind the farm income
changes of the 1970s show the influence of sharply rising export demand for
grains and oilseeds. In fiscal 1976 farm exports attained a seventh consecutive
yearly record of $22.1 billion, of which $13.7 billion was accounted for by
wheat, feed grains, and soybeans. In addition, domestic demand for food
has continued to increase. Total domestic utilization of farm food commodities increased 6 percent between 1970 and 1976, while the CPI for
food consumed at home increased 8 percent relative to the overall CPI.
Between 1970 and 1976 the prices farmers received for crops rose 35 percent
relative to the GNP deflator and the relative prices received for livestock
rose 2 percent.
The associated increases in factor prices reflect not only a greater derived demand but also the effects of energy price increases on production
costs. The prices of all important groups of farm inputs increased in compari-
96
TABLE 25.—Real income per farm and per capita disposable personal farm income as
percent of nonfarm income, 1961—75
Total
income
per farm
(1967
dollars) i
Period
Percent
of farm
opeiators'
income from
farming
Per capita
disposable
personal
income,
farm as
percent
of nonfarm
1961-65 average
1966-70 average
$6,797
8,893
51.2
45.9
61.7
72.0
1971
1972
9 327
10 865
41.3
46.4
74.7
83.4
1973
1974
14,183
12,685
55.8
51.3
109.3
92.7
1975
10,969
44.4
89.6
i Net farm income excluding inventory change plus off-farm income of farm households divided by the index of prices
paid by farmers for family living items, 1967=100.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
son with the general price level. The indexes for farm prices paid, deflated
by the GNP deflator, were up 44 percent for fertilizers, 28 percent for tractors
and self-propelled machinery, 23 percent for fuels and energy, and 21 percent
for agricultural chemicals between 1970 and 1976. The index of farm real
estate prices relative to the GNP deflator rose 42 percent, and the hourly
real wage rate of hired farm workers rose 12 percent during this same period.
FARM AND FOOD POLICY
Through the Rice Production Act of 1975 a rice program that restricted
output was replaced last year by the market-oriented approach already
existing for wheat, feed grains, and upland cotton. That approach, introduced in the Agriculture and Consumer Protection Act of 1973, provides
income support by means of deficiency payments based on the difference
between a legislated target price and the market price or support price
received. The market price is supported at a lower level by way of the
"loan rate," the price per bushel which is provided as a loan to qualifying
farmers who put grain in storage and may then pay off the loan by turning
grain over to the Commodity Credit Corporation. The higher target
price has little effect on acreage because deficiency payments are made only
on an allotment base which a farmer cannot increase by expanding acreage.
Unlike that for wheat and feed grains the target for rice established for the
1976 crop is above market prices. Consequently deficiency payments on the
1976 crop of an estimated $140 million will be made to rice growers.
The loan rate on wheat was increased by 75 cents to $2.25 per bushel
in October 1976, with smaller increases for feed grains. This increase put
the wheat support price near enough to market prices so that any further
significant increase in the support price would threaten to reduce export
and feed use of wheat.
97
Following a recent emphasis on international approaches to commodity
policy, the United States proposed in the International Wheat Council a
system of nationally held food grain reserves. The reserves, to consist of 30
million metric tons of wheat and rice, would be used to add to supplies during years of exceptionally low production rather than to defend any particular price band. They would be acquired and released with reference to
quantitative triggers, when world supplies exceeded or fell short of trend by
a fixed percentage. No progress was made toward implementation of this
plan. By year-end, however, prospective private carryover stocks of wheat
and rice above working stocks in the United States amounted to perhaps 20
million tons of the proposed 30-million world total.
There were significant policy developments in several other areas in 1976.
The Administration attempted unsuccessfully to move toward a marketoriented program for peanuts to replace the current reliance on acreage
controls and high support prices. Dairy price supports were reviewed at
quarterly intervals and were raised in April and October to keep the price
of milk used in manufacturing at 80 percent of parity. By the end of the
year substantial Government purchases of butter, cheese, and powdered milk
were being made at the support prices. The President vetoed a bill which
would have raised dairy supports to 85 percent of parity and under which
the accumulation of dairy products would have been still larger and the
year-end prices still higher.
Other international policy developments concerned imported coffee, sugar,
and meat, which in fiscal 1976 accounted for $5.0 billion of the $10.1 billion
U.S. agricultural imports. The Senate ratified U.S. participation in a new International Coffee Agreement, which contains provisions intended to stabilize
prices within a band agreed upon by producers and consumers. As with
most such arrangements, there is a danger that the agreement will be
more effective in holding prices above the price floor than in holding prices
below the price ceiling when a short crop occurs. The devastating Brazilian
frost of July 1975 is likely to keep prices well above the highest possible
support price for at least 2 more years. In regard to sugar and meat, measures
were taken to protect domestic producers from imports. The tariff on sugar
was increased 1.25 cents per pound, and quantitative restrictions were imposed on imports of beef.
Government regulation of agriculture continued to grow last year. The
Environmental Protection Agency suspended most uses of the pesticides
heptachlor and chlordane. The Grain Standards Act of 1976 will greatly increase Federal supervision of the weighing and grading of grain for export.
The Farmer-to-Consumer Direct Marketing Bill was enacted to encourage
the purchase of food in places other than grocery stores. Other regulatory
developments included increasing health and safety regulation, the ban
by the Food and Drug Administration of several food additives, and the
decisions, first to permit and then to deny the use of mechanically deboned
red meat for human consumption.
98
While circumstances have enabled a movement away from restrictive programs for grains and upland cotton, most of last year's policy developments
were not in the direction of less regulated markets. With farmers pressing
for intervention to forestall lower grain prices, and with increased interest
in achieving grain price stability through grain reserves, the potential exists
for a further turn from the market orientation that has been brought about in
the last decade. The costs of such a turn are discussed in Chapter 4.
99
CHAPTER 3
The World Economy in 1976
S. 1976 DREW TO A CLOSE, there appeared to be some doubt
\ regarding the strength, if not the sustainability, of the economic
recovery. After moving very fast early in 1976, the recovery began during
the summer to slow in many countries. This slowdown, combined with
pressures in foreign exchange markets associated with external payments
strains in a number of countries, brought about a renewed sense of uncertainty. Whereas policy concerns early in the year had centered on the risk
that simultaneous recoveries in the industrial economies might reinforce
each other and bring about an unsustainable pace, in the second half of 1976
the concern shifted to the possibility that the flattening of the recovery might
lead to an insufficient rate of growth.
Nevertheless the record for 1976 is quite positive in many respects. Output
in the industrial countries is estimated to have risen about 5 percent above
its 1975 level in real terms, the volume of world trade expanded by about 10
percent, and inflation rates, though not diminished as much as would be
desirable, are significantly below earlier levels. Despite the pessimism of
the summer months, it should be clear that a cessation of growth is not
expected this year. The consensus of government and private forecasters
is that expansion in output will continue, at a pace only slightly below the
average rate of growth achieved in 1976, but nevertheless a pace that may
not be sufficient to allow a significant reduction in unemployment. In fact,
although employment has been growing in many countries, unemployment
has remained high and has begun to rise again in some.
The experience of the past several years has shown that high and rising
inflation rates are incompatible with the achievement of sustainable growth.
In recognition of this fact it was agreed at the Ministerial Meeting of member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) and at the meeting of Heads of State and Government of the major
industrial countries in the summer of 1976, that the restoration of full
employment and normal levels of capacity utilization in the OECD area
would take a number of years. It was also agreed that sustained recovery
could be achieved only in a climate of price stability. For this reason excessively expansionary policies, which would be interpreted as carrying the
seeds of renewed inflation, might at best bring only temporary relief from
unemployment.
100
The policy actions taken in 1975 and early 1976 were aimed at establishing a sustainable recovery. Although several autonomous events in 1972-73
helped create severe inflationary pressures, it is clear that overly expansionary policy measures bore part of the responsibility and eventually contributed
to the worldwide recession of 1974-75, and it is this costly experience that
authorities are determined not to repeat. Nevertheless, the strategy set out
in mid-1976 envisaged a considerable period of growth well above longerrun average rates to ensure a steady move toward full employment. But it
also implied caution lest inflationary expectations revive. Therefore, it should
not be interpreted as a failure of policy if a mid-course correction now may
prove to be necessary to keep the recovery on track in a number of countries.
The fiscal program recommended in the United States (see Chapter 1) and
the possible adoption of fiscal measures supporting the recoveries in Japan
and Germany reflect the conviction that demand management policies must
aim at sustaining the recovery but should recognize the need to remain prudent, even in the face of an apparent pause. This is particularly true since
the latest indicators in some countries point to a strengthening of activity.
Attainment of sustained growth after a prolonged period of rapid inflation
and recession as well as adjustment to the higher cost of energy require
a rising share of investment in national output, at least for some time. Now
more than ever this necessity implies an avoidance of policies that in the
end lead to abrupt shifts. Above all, it involves a commitment by government as well as the public at large to realistic goals for the growth in incomes
and the distribution of these incomes within and among nations.
THE DEMAND SITUATION
At the beginning of 1977 the recovery from the deepest and most widespread recession of the post-World War II period was entering its second
year. As one frequently finds at this stage, some 18 months after a turning
point, cyclical indicators in many countries are sufficiently mixed as to
raise the question whether the recovery might lapse into insufficient growth
or whether a broadening out into a sustainable expansion is imminent.
In late 1975 and the beginning of 1976 substantial increases in output were
registered in most industrial countries. These increases in activity were
transmitted to the developing countries, in particular the primary commodity producers, through a strong expansion in international trade and a
sharp upturn in commodity prices that came unusually early in the cycle.
The early phase of the recovery was associated in part with the substantial
amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus that had been put in place during
1975 and early 1976, and in part with the cyclical recovery of inventory and
consumption demand.
Because inventory decumulation in 1974-75 had been unusually sharp and
private consumption demand had been weaker than in previous recessions,
101
there was considerable room for expansion in both these demand components
once confidence in a stable recovery began to be established. Accordingly,
the main impetus to the expansion in output in late 1975 and early 1976
came from a shift in inventory behavior, which turned from significant
decumulation to moderate accumulation. As confidence about the economic
outlook improved, consumer spending began to contribute strength to the
recovery. The historically high saving rates of the preceding period of inflation and recession began to decline to more normal levels, especially in
those countries where inflationary tendencies were subsiding, as consumers
began to feel more secure about their jobs as well as about a restoration of
the value of their inflation-eroded savings (Table 26). As a consequence
pent-up consumer demand, reflecting earlier postponement of both replacement needs and new purchases of durable goods, was released. And industrial production in OECD countries expanded at an annual rate of nearly
TABLE 26.—Personal or household saving rates in selected industrial countries,
1965-76
[Percent; seasonally adjusted]
Period
United
States
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
United
Kingdom
1965-72 average..
6.7
6.2
19.1
13.3
13.0
8.8
1973
1974 . .
1975
7.8
7.3
7.8
9.3
9.4
10.2
22 5
24.3
23.0
17.3
17.4
17.7
14.2
15.2
15.8
11 6
14.0
14.0
1975: First half.
Second half
8.1
7.5
10.9
9.6
23.2
22.9
16.9
14.8
14.5
13.6
1976:1...
6.9
7.1
6.4
9.8
11.6
23 6
21.8
22.2
14.5
14.5
15.0
12.9
13.3
II—
III
1
U6.3
i Estimate.
Note.—For the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, the rate is personal saving as percent of personal disposable income. For other countries, the rate is household saving as percent of disposable income.
Sources: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and national sources.
20 percent in the first quarter of the year (Table 27). Most of this increase
was concentrated in the growth of output of industrial materials and consumer goods. Clearly industrial activity could not be sustained at such a
pace, and growth of output moderated in the second quarter of the year.
But as the summer passed and the temporary impetus to activity stemming
from the reversal of the inventory cycle and the partial release of pent-up
consumer demand spent itself, the rate of increase of economic activity continued to be slow, largely because investment demand did not revive
significantly.
DEMAND AND OUTPUT IN MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
The continued slow pace of the world recovery after the vigorous upswing earlier in 1976 raised questions about whether or not the recovery
might be faltering, especially in the United States, Germany, and Japan,
where considerable progress had been made in reducing inflationary expec-
TABLE 27.—Changes in industrial production in selected industrial countries,
1975-76
[Seasonally adjusted monthly rates]
Percent change from preceding period
Period
OECD
total
United
States
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
United
Kingdom
Latest month from prerecession peak
-0.8
0.1
—2.9
-3.3
-2.3
-0.9
0.4
-7.7
1975: L .
II
III
IV
-1.8
-.3
3
.9
-3.1
.3
18
.8
_ 9
-2 6
1.0
-.7
-.5
.3
-1.1
-1.0
-.1
1.3
1.2
-.3
-1.0
- 6
1.9
-.2
-1.4
_ 2
.3
1.5
1.0
1.0
1.9
1.7
.9
.8
.5
.8
.0
.8
.3
1.0
-1.2
3.0
-1.8
1.3
.0
.0
.8
2.7
-.9
1.8
.5
4.5
-2.5
July
.__ _
Aug.._
Sept -
.2
.9
.4
.5
.5
-.3
-.7
1.3
-.4
2.2
-1.7
-.4
.8
.0
4.0
-2.6
.9
.9
1.8
-9.1
13.4
.1
2.2
-4.1
1.7
-.9
1.6
Oct
Nov
-.4
12
-1.3
.2
2.2
-4.7
-2.4
.9
-.9
1976: 1
April..
May
June
—'2
.4
.1
Sources: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and national sources.
tations, and where, therefore, policy could be more flexible than elsewhere. Current economic indicators in all three countries do not yet provide clear evidence whether and to what extent stimulative measures in
addition to those already instituted or currently contemplated might be
needed.
In Germany the economic recovery had started earlier than in most other
countries, partly because inflationary pressures there had been contained
earlier than elsewhere. Because of the early reining in of demand pressures,
inventory accumulation in Germany was not as extensive in 1973-74 as elsewhere. Therefore, with demand reviving, the shift in inventory behavior did
not contribute as much to the early stages of the recovery as in other countries. Initially, the recovery was carried by the effects of a large income
tax cut and a temporary subsidy on investment instituted in late 1974. By
the end of 1975 it seemed that the impetus to final demand provided by the
fiscal stimulus and by strongly rising export orders might broaden the recovery. Private consumption and investment demand were growing at annual
rates of 8 percent in the first quarter of 1976. Surveys of business intention
and consumer sentiment pointed toward a continued firming of domestic
demand.
After the first quarter, however, the pace of recovery slowed markedly.
Not only was there no further improvement in unemployment, but employment remained below year-earlier levels. Domestic order inflows to industry
began to weaken. Part of the slowdown in the pace of economic activity
reflected a weakening of consumption demand. The saving rate stopped
falling and stabilized well above its 1965-72 average, though considerably
below its recent peak, and the volume of retail sales was flat through most of
103
1976. Only exports seemed to remain an expansionary force. Thus, considerable concern arose about the ability of the German economy to move into
a sustained expansion.
However, industrial production began to pick up again toward the end of
the summer. Later in the year, order inflows, especially from domestic
sources, appeared to strengthen and unemployment fell slightly. But business
intentions remained weak through the third quarter of 1976, according
to surveys, and some part of the rise in domestic orders reflects subcontracting
of export orders rather than a broad upturn of domestic investment.
Monetary policy has been accommodating, and it appears that the target
for monetary expansion set by the Bundesbank for 1976 will be exceeded. For
1977, the monetary authorities have announced that their target for monetary expansion in terms of Central Bank money will be 8 percent, implying a
growth rate of 6*/2 percent from the last quarter of 1976 to the last quarter
of 1977. In order to help ensure that the projected growth of gross national
product (GNP) of 5 percent for 1977 over 1976 will materialize, the authorities have instituted a number of selective measures to increase labor
mobility and curtail unemployment, and a scheduled increase in value added
tax has been postponed. In addition, further measures to stimulate private
investment are being contemplated.
Developments in Japan in certain respects appear to be similar to those
in Germany. The early phase of the recovery was sparked by fiscal stimulus,
and activity picked up sharply toward the end of 1975 with a revival of
export demand. In early 1976 the recovery appeared to broaden as
private consumption demand rose rapidly and investment demand, though
not buoyant, registered its first significant increase in 2 years. Underlying
inflationary tendencies seemed to have moderated substantially, although
price indicators were rising at a somewhat faster pace than in 1975. The
faster rise of consumer prices largely reflected reductions in the subsidy elements of certain government services as well as other government price
decisions. A regeneration of cost pressures did not appear to be a factor. In
fact wage settlements, last year at an average 8% percent, were well below
past trends and indicate that the moderation in price increases that occurred
in the third quarter of 1976 may well continue. Furthermore the rate of
saving in Japan, as in Germany, appears to have stabilized at levels above
its long-run average, and consumption demand is consequently a lesser
expansionary factor than had been expected.
The Japanese recovery seemed to come to a virtual halt during the summer months. Industrial production fell toward the end of the summer, and
the growth in real GNP decelerated sharply from an annual rate of 8%
percent during the first half of the year to somewhat less than 2 percent in
the third quarter of 1976. This slowdown reflected a decline in the volume
of exports from the very high levels of the first half of the year and a flattening out in private investment demand. Finally, in Japan as in the United
104
States some underspending by public authorities may have contributed to
the slowdown in the growth in output. In the case of Japan this underspending was associated with parliamentary delays in approving public
financing bills.
Because of the sluggish growth in the third quarter of 1976, the Japanese
authorities announced a number of stimulative measures in November. The
economic package consisted primarily of fiscal measures on the expenditure
side of the budget, and the direct effect of this fiscal stimulus is estimated to
amount to about 1 percent of GNP. However, because last year the Government failed to effect the usual annual cut in income taxes designed to reduce
fiscal drag, overall fiscal policy may not prove quite so stimulative on balance. The formulation of budgetary policy in Japan in 1976 was complicated
by the tenuous political situation. Now that the December elections are over
and a Government has been formed, the course of fiscal policy may well be
clearer in 1977.
The slower growth in activity in the three large industrial economies, the
United States, Japan, and Germany, was accompanied by similar developments in the other major industrial countries. In these countries, however,
the fact that internal demand grew more slowly or stopped growing during
the summer months of 1976 largely reflected domestic policy measures aimed
at containing accelerating price pressures.
In Italy, partly because the Government was under strong political
pressures, fiscal and monetary policies had turned decisively expansionary
in the second half of 1975. As a result output expanded rapidly from the
end of 1975 through May 1976. This expansion in output was accompanied,
however, by accelerating price pressures, largely reflecting rising wage
costs, a budget deficit that rose to 13 percent of gross domestic product
(GDP), and an apparent loss of control of monetary expansion. These developments were in turn reflected in growing trade deficits and pressures
on the exchange rate. The authorities attempted for some time to contain
exchange rate pressures by foreign borrowing and heavy intervention in the
exchange markets. But growing reluctance by foreign lenders to extend further credit and mounting pressures in the exchange markets, partly caused
by capital flight, brought about a significant change in economic policy.
Systematic support of the exchange rate was discontinued early in
1976, and monetary policy was tightened, as was fiscal policy. Partly
to reduce domestic liquidity, but mainly to arrest the drop in the exchange
rate, the authorities instituted a prior deposit scheme on most foreign currency transactions. Later in the year a temporary surcharge on all purchases
of foreign exchange was imposed.
Stabilization measures which could strike at the root of Italy's economic
problems—wage push which was largely self-perpetuating in a climate of
accelerating inflation because of tight indexation schemes and excessive
government deficits financed in large part by the central bank—proved
difficult to effect because of political uncertainties. Following the June elec-
105
tions the authorities began to formulate a more comprehensive economic
program partly in preparation for reopening negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial assistance. The Government's
program took more definite shape in October with the announcement and
subsequent parliamentary ratification of a series of increases in taxes, administered prices, and public traiffs. Monetary policy was tightened further, and
discussions with business and labor were begun to seek ways of reducing
labor costs and in particular of modifying the linkage between wages and
prices. These discussions are continuing, and completion of the IMF negotiations awaits presentation of a satisfactory program of wage restraint.
Italy's Communist Party, which made considerable gains in the June elections, as well as the country's other major political parties have supported
the Government's stabilization efforts and have agreed, along with key members of the union leadership, that wage restraint must form an essential part
of any stabilization package. However, the form such restraint is to take still
remains to be worked out.
In the meantime, the recovery slowed, though not quite as much as had
been expected. Real GDP in the third quarter of 1976 increased at an annual
rate of less than 2 percent, after strong increases in the preceding 2 quarters of
10.2 percent and 6.3 percent respectively. Growth in the second and third
quarters was largely sustained by exports and stockbuilding. Investment
spending, except for energy-related projects, leveled off after some improvement early in the year. If the Government's stabilization efforts are effective, income growth may remain weak in 1977. In addition, high nominal
interest rates, a weak demand outlook, and poor profit opportunities may
continue to inhibit private investment demand. A successful stabilization
program and strong export orders, however, might do much to release longdeferred replacement demand for capital equipment.
In the United Kingdom it was hoped that an export-led recovery would
bring about the structural shift of resources into exports and private investment that was needed for a sustainable expansion, but these hopes
flagged in the spring of 1976. The growth of exports began to slow, and
in volume terms they fell by 3 percent in the third quarter of 1976. At the
same time, the recovery of private investment expenditures, except on
North Sea oil installations, appeared to have come to a halt in the second
half of 1976. Real GDP fell in the second quarter; and although industrial
production stopped falling in September, by November it was only fractionally above its early 1976 level. As a consequence unemployment rose through
most of the year.
The disappointing performance of the British economy was largely associated with continued high rates of inflation, despite the wage restraint
instituted in August 1975 and the agreement for further restraint reached
in May 1976 in return for some tax relief. The high rates of inflation—
over 15 percent at an annual rate as measured by the CPI in the first half
of 1976—to some extent reflected higher import prices, as commodity prices
rose and the exchange rate weakened. But to a larger extent they reflected
106
continued strong domestically generated price pressures, partly emanating
from the public sector.
The British Government therefore reassessed its policies toward the end
of 1976. In a policy statement, formulated partly in conjunction with the
need to obtain conditional credit from the IMF, the authorities set out their
prospective policy guidelines and the reasons for them. An essential requirement, aside from the necessity of further reducing inflation rates and of ensuring continuing support from the unions for the Government's wage policy,
is the need to improve the nonprice elements of British competitiveness at
home and abroad. Furthermore resources must be shifted from public and
private consumption into exports and productive investment. The Government stated that "for this purpose an essential element of the Government's
strategy will be a continuing and substantial reduction . . . in the share of resources required for the public sector. It is also essential to reduce the public
sector borrowing requirement in order to create monetary conditions which
will encourage investment and support sustained growth and the control of
inflation." Accordingly the Government is effecting public expenditure
cuts, phased over several years, and raising some indirect taxes. These
measures, combined with earlier expenditure cuts, an increase in employers'
social security contributions, and some other revenue-raising provisions, are
expected to bring the public borrowing requirement down from its current
level of 9 percent of GDP to about 6 percent in fiscal 1977-78. The fiscal
measures are coupled with limits on the expansion of domestic credit
designed to bring the growth of bank lending and of the monetary aggregates into line with the Government's overall objectives of reducing the
rate of price inflation and bringing down interest rates.
The economic program adopted by the British authorities was hammered
out under intense political difficulties, since the longer-term strategy clearly
was difficult to accept in the face of high and rising unemployment. However, the authorities decided that the past record of consumption-led growth
policies had only weakened the industrial structure in the longer run.
Equally, strong pressures to impose direct controls on imports, which were to
reduce both external payments pressures as well as pressures on the internal
price level stemming from rising import prices, were resisted successfully,
mainly on the grounds that such controls would help to perpetuate the
structural weaknesses in the economy, but also in recognition of international obligations agreed to within the framework of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the IMF. If the recent measures
remove some of the uncertainties that have clouded the economic outlook
for Britain, and if the forthcoming budget, as expected, removes some of
the tax disincentives to business expansion, the outlook for the growth
of economic activity in 1977 and beyond may have improved substantially
compared with the trends apparent around mid-1976.
In France, as in the other major industrial countries, the recovery initially
sparked by fiscal measures and a turnaround in inventory investment slowed
107
after the first quarter of 1976. The domestic economic situation is dominated by concerns about continued high inflationary pressures. Wholesale
prices, which had been falling in 1975, rose at annual rates of almost
20 percent in the second and third quarters of 1976, and consumer prices
increased at about a 10 percent annual rate from early 1975 through late
1976. The revival of domestic activity and the relatively high inflation
rates were reflected in a growing current account deficit and downward
pressure on the exchange rate.
Although a severe drought and the effects of the depreciation of the
French exchange rate contributed to the rise in the domestic price level,
the main pressures came from internal sources. Wages rose at an annual
rate of 16 percent through the third quarter of 1976, in part led by settlements in the government sector well in excess of the inflation rate. The
budget deficit in 1975 had been financed largely by bank borrowing, and
monetary policy at that time was decidedly expansionary. As a result the
growth of the broader money supply (M 2 ) accelerated sharply.
Faced with internal price pressures and external financial constraints,
the authorities tightened monetary conditions progressively during 1976.
The budget for 1976 was designed to halve the public deficit compared
with that of 1975. However, aid to farmers to alleviate the effects of the
drought and subsidies to the social security fund exceeding planned amounts
may keep the deficit above anticipated levels. The proposed budget for
1977 is in balance. The growth rate of public expenditures is to be less
than that of nominal GNP, and increases in personal and corporate income
taxes, partially offset by a cut in indirect taxes and some investment incentives, are to close the remaining gap between expenditures and revenues.
In addition^ monetary policy is to continue to support the anti-inflationary
measures. M 2 is to grow by 12J/2 percent in 1977 over 1976, compared with
a 20 percent annual rate during the first half of 1976. The growth of regulated bank credit (about 80 percent of all bank credit extensions) is to be
held to 5 percent for the large banks.
The authorities also instituted a general price freeze from mid-September
to the end of 1976 and will keep public utility charges unchanged until
April 1, 1977. The price pressures built up during the 3/2-month freeze
on private sector prices were to be offset by a reduction in value added tax in
January 1977, and tighter control of profit margins is to limit price rises
further. Finally, the Government proposed a voluntary wage restraint under
which real wages would remain constant.
The inflationary environment, coupled with political uncertainties reflected in an early focusing on the 1978 parliamentary elections, has
brought about a pessimistic turn in business and consumer confidence according to latest surveys. Nevertheless capacity utilization has continued to
rise moderately; and private consumption, reflecting somewhat larger rises
in real incomes than elsewhere, has continued to support economic activity.
108
GENERAL DEMAND TRENDS
Economic developments in the individual countries clearly show a considerable divergence among underlying conditions and therefore among
policy concerns. In those countries where marked progress had been made
in turning around inflationary expectations—Germany, Japan, and the
United States, for example—concerns centered on the sufficiency of the
policy stimuli effected earlier. In a number of other countries inflation rates
had diminished only little or were accelerating once more, partly because
authorities in these countries had generally not moved to contain inflationary pressures during 1974-75 to the extent that other countries had done.
The authorities in these countries, notably Britain, Italy, France, and Canada, were thus forced, partly by external pressures, to institute measures
aimed at cooling the inflationary climate during 1976. Despite the growing divergence of policy aims among major countries, however, the shape
of the recovery revealed a number of striking similarities.
The slowdown in the growth of output over the summer months of 1976,
aside from the expected diminution of the stimulus derived from earlier
expansionary policy measures and inventory changes, generally reflected
one major shift in the demand outlook: private investment demand failed
to revive to the extent that might have been anticipated on the basis of
surveys of investment intentions and general economic developments. This
sluggishness occurred in many countries, despite the fact that replacement
needs have been cumulating for some years and a general recognition that
a return to sustained full-employment levels in most countries presupposes
a shift of resources toward investment.
In Germany and Japan, for example, past recoveries have usually shown
a considerable rise in investment demand following an export-led upturn.
In the current cycle this pattern has not been repeated, despite the fact that
the early stages of the recovery were clearly export led. Further, in a number
of other countries as well, investment is turning out to be less strong than past
historical relationships would indicate. Econometric evidence based on
models for a number of countries participating in Project LINK supports
this view.
The financial position of the business sector in many countries does not
appear to be a factor restraining investment decisions at this time. The considerable improvement in the liquidity positions, and in the structure of
balance sheets of nonflnancial corporations, that had been evident in 1975
apparently continued at least into the first half of 1976. The cyclical rise
in corporate profits and the improved climate in bond and equity markets
allowed corporations to bring their internal financing and debt-to-equity
ratios into better balance. Flow of funds data for the United States, Japan,
Germany, France, and the United Kingdom collected by the OECD show
109
224-250 O - 77 - 8
that this phenomenon was general among industrial countries. Of course,
it reflects to some extent the weakness of investment demand, but the structure of the financial flows themselves was a significant contributing factor.
If neither the low level of capacity utilization nor financial constraints can
fully explain current investment behavior, the explanation for the failure
of investment demand to turn up decisively in the second year of recovery
may be linked to a number of the longer-run factors discussed in Chapter 1.
Data for most countries show that there has been an erosion of profits
apparent since at least the late 1960s and earlier in some countries. At
that time, however, concerns regarding the downward trend of profitability were alleviated by a growth-oriented business climate. Hence private
investment demand responded strongly in the 1972-73 upswing. The current pause in investment spending appears to reflect a stronger awareness
of the earlier underlying uncertainties and the addition of new ones.
The risks associated with committing capital for long periods therefore
appear to be weighing more heavily on the appropriation process and the
risk premiums required have increased. The costing out of rates of return
into the future, never easy, is compounded by the fact that recent experiences have led to greater uncertainties regarding future changes in demand, inflation rates, and financial conditions. The lack of clear guidelines
regarding government policies in various areas, but more generally also a
fear that governments may have lost control over economic conditions and
that the economy in a number of countries may fall into stop-go cycles
have added to the difficulties involved in the forward projection of profitability.
A major new element affecting investment decisions is the large increase
in the relative price of energy that was effected in 1973-74 by the OPEC
cartel. By raising inflation rates and making many processes in industrial
and agricultural production uneconomic, the sextupling of the export
price of OPEC oil since 1970 has had much more far-reaching effects than
the directly obvious ones of deepening the world recession and creating
serious international financial problems. The success of the OPEC cartel
has also raised uncertainties regarding future price decisions and the security
of supply. Investment decisions have become vastly more complicated under
these circumstances; and adjustment, while creating new needs for physical
capital, may take a long time. In the meantime, capital shortages may
appear in various sectors and intensify inflationary tendencies, which in turn
will inhibit the adjustment.
In countries where for one reason or another nominal interest rates have
risen to recent cyclical highs, the problem surrounding investment decisions
is further complicated by the fact that interest payments on debt create cash
flow problems. Under such circumstances the longer-run problem of building and sustaining confidence is therefore compounded by the more immediate financial situation.
110
PUBLIC SECTOR DEFICITS
The economic programs adopted or proposed by the British, Italian, and
French authorities, as well as some others, during 1976 all stressed the need
to stabilize the growth of the public sector and to reduce budget deficits.
In most of these countries it was felt that both inflationary tendencies and
disincentives to private sector initiatives were closely linked to the fact that
the longer-run trends and the past years of inflation and recession had
led to an excessive growth of government expenditures. The expenditure
levels that have resulted are not expected to be sufficiently reduced as recession effects wear off. During 1976 government efforts in a number of countries were therefore largely concentrated on achieving immediate cuts in
public expenditures as well as better longer-run control of the government
sector. The focus on expenditure policy was owing in part to the fact that
in a number of countries it was felt that marginal tax rates were approaching
effective limits. In Britain and Italy efforts were also directed specifically
toward reducing the very large public borrowing requirement, since financing of the deficit during the year involved a high rate of monetization, thus
giving impetus to inflationary expectations and, toward the end of the
year, to rising nominal interest rate levels. The latter lessened the effectiveness of the governments' policies directed toward increasing private investment demand.
By itself the growth of the public sector does not necessarily imply a loss
of vitality in the economy. In fact at times there is a perceived need for the
expansion of certain public sector activities, such as infrastructure investment, which while leading to a growing absorption of resources by the
public sector sustain or increase the vitality of the private sector. Germany
is a good example of this proposition. If the public sector provides the type
of services the public desires and is willing to pay for, there is no loss in
either productivity or private incentives. However, if public sector services
are such as to cast doubt on the willingness of the public at large to pay for
them, they imply an increase in the tax burden that the public would be
reluctant to bear. In such a case the struggle between business and labor
about the distribution of net income could be exacerbated. Such struggles
inevitably lead to inflationary pressure and to a loss in efficiency for the
economy at large. In this sense the growth of the public sector may be
seen as inhibiting growth in the economy.
The closest link between transactions by the public sector and their effects
on the overall economy is the direct claim on output and labor that derives
from government spending on goods and services. A large part of such
spending is concentrated on consumption or on investment in areas that
may not necessarily reflect an optimal use of resources. One example is extensive government aid to ailing sectors of industry or individual firms,
when aid directed at phasing out such activities might represent a better
111
use of resources. In such instances the overall ability of the economy to grow
may be affected negatively.
One element in the rise in government spending has been the increasing
claim of the public sector on labor over time (Table 28). In some cases
TABLE 28.—Private and public employment in selected industrial countries, 1960-75
Percent of total civilian employment
Sector and country
1960
1965
1970
1972
1974
1975
Private sector:
88.2
192.5
97.1
91.3
89.8
90.9
78.1
11.8
17.5
_
86.9
93.1
96.9
89.8
89.0
91.0
United States
Canada
Japan
France
.
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Sweden
United Kingdom
77.6
85.8
93.1
96.8
88.4
88.2
89.8
90.1
91.0
74.9
85.5
93.0
96.6
87.8
87.4
88.7
89.3
90.3
71.8
85.3
93.0
96.4
87.3
86.7
88.4
88.9
2 90.2
73.6
13.1
14.2
6.9
3.2
14.5
14.7
6.9
3.1
7.0
3.4
7.0
3.6
10.2
11.0
11.6
11.8
10.2
12.2
12.6
11.3
10.7
25.1
28.2
12.7
13.3
11.6
11.1
2 9.8
26.4
82.6
96.2
86.9
85.4
71.8
Public sector:
UnitedStates . .
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Sweden
United Kingdom 3
.
_
2.9
8.7
.
10.2
9.0
9.1
21.9
22.4
9.9
9.0
9.7
17.4
3.8
13.1
14.6
28.2
1 Data for 1961.
2 Data for 1973.
a Includes public corporations.
Sources: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and national sources.
a shift of labor to the public sector has been part of a general change in
resource allocation that, as noted above, has been conducive to—or at
least has not hampered—overall growth. But sometimes it has led to increased inflationary tendencies, particularly in countries where the government tends to be a wage leader. This appears to have been a problem, especially in the United Kingdom in the early 1970s and in France during
1976.
In a more indirect way government policies may have influenced wage
formation and price pressures through the timing and extent of increases
in social insurance contributions. When such contributions represent a
large, and in some cases rising, share of total employment compensation
they may create problems. These problems, however, do not lie in the programs that are financed but in the fact that in wage negotiations workers
do not normally regard employers' contributions to social security funds
as a part of compensation. To the extent that unions in a number
of countries have begun to negotiate on the basis of after-tax compensation,
rising contributions by employees have also added to wage demands and
thus to price pressures. The need to increase contributions to social insurance
programs has become apparent in a growing number of countries as recession
and inflation have reduced surpluses or have increased deficits of social
112
insurance funds. The requirement that such programs be put on a solvent
basis has necessitated increases in contributions, and to the extent that such
increases put pressure on wages and prices, they provide a good example
of the problem, mentioned earlier, that can arise with regard to income
distribution.
The unpredictability of changes in social policies as well as their increased
cost may also be inhibiting investment decisions. There is some evidence that
this may have been a significant factor in the United Kingdom and Italy. In
this connection the recent decision to raise employers' social security contributions in the United Kingdom may well hinder the industrial revitalization which other British policy actions were designed to foster.
The size of the public sector and the way it is related to inflation and
overall growth of the economy must be viewed in terms of a balance between
public services and private output representing a social consensus. In particular, expansion of public sector expenditures for purposes of short-term demand management without an appropriate linkage to longer-term public
objectives can disturb this balance. Because programs once phased in to fill
a temporary need tend not to be phased out with matching speed, there may
be an unintentional residue of additional public expenditure after each
cycle that is possibly wasteful from a longer perspective. However, some
countries, Sweden for example, have institutional arrangements that minimize such effects.
Because it has proved difficult in most instances to restrain the growth
of public expenditures, or in any event to increase tax revenues at an equal
pace, public sector deficits, aside from cyclical effects, have been growing in
most countries. A number of countries have been able to keep domestic
consumption high by drawing on foreign savings to finance their public
debt. But it has become increasingly clear that there are limits to the willingness of foreign lenders to extend such credit. Although in some countries
external debt levels might have reached excessive proportions in any event,
the time was telescoped by the need to finance external deficits resulting
from the increase in the export price of OPEC oil. Consequently in some
cases the level of external debt has begun to force authorities to adopt
domestic retrenchment programs. The situation has become increasingly
acute in those countries where inflationary expectations have remained
high and where inflation is eroding trade positions.
THE EXTERNAL SECTOR
The recovery was accompanied by a sharp upturn in the volume of
world trade. In contrast to 1975, when world trade in volume terms fell by
5 percent, trade is estimated to have expanded by 10 or 11 percent in 1976.
Clearly, this substantial growth of world trade has helped to sustain the
recovery, but it has also brought to light the serious underlying imbalances
which exist among countries but which had been masked by the recession.
113
Among the industrial countries, those with the most stable domestic conditions have apparently had a larger share in the expansion of world exports
than those with continued high inflationary pressures. This development
has occurred despite the large exchange rate adjustments during 1975
and 1976 which helped to offset differential developments in inflation
rates (Chart 7). The full effects of changes in relative exchange rates
are felt only after a considerable lag. Given the existing slack in capacity
utilization and the vigorous upturn in world trade, however, one might expect that countries with depreciating currencies would have shared at
above-average rates in the trade expansion. In the event, throughout 1976
the United Kingdom, for example, has been unable to maintain its export
market shares, at least in trade in manufacturers, compared with other industrial countries. Italy's share was reduced through the first half of the
year, and France may have begun to lose shares as well (Table 29).
The failure of trade flows to respond quickly to changes in exchange rates
is often attributed to the failure of such changes to show up immediately
and fully in transaction prices. But the price side tells only part of the
story. If export prices, expressed in foreign currency, are not adjusted
quickly to reflect exchange rate changes, profits on export sales will rise
and selling abroad will become significantly more lucrative compared
with domestic sales. It is therefore reasonable to presume that, particularly at times of low general profitability, the leverage exerted by exchange
rate changes on the supply side may be greater—at least in the short
run—than the leverage on demand arising from increased price competitiveness. Because there is considerable evidence that some countries which have
recently experienced relatively large depreciations of their currencies have
not adjusted their export prices in foreign currency to the extent that might
be expected, the profit argument would have provided further grounds for
expecting these countries to maintain, if not to improve, their export market
shares.
In view of the above discussion, it may be surprising that some "strong
currency" countries, especially Germany and Japan, have not only maintained but increased their shares in export markets. Several explanations
suggest themselves. Countries with relatively low inflation rates tend to
have lower interest rates and may therefore be able at a time of high
domestic liquidity to offer more competitive financing terms. Unfortunately data on such nonprice components of export transactions are
not available. But because a number of countries exempt export credit
transactions from the effects of tight domestic monetary policies, and
because the cost of forward cover may partly offset differences in uncovered rates, this explanation takes one only part of the way. Stronger circumstantial evidence exists for a structural explanation relating largely to
so-called big ticket items. It is thought that countries with a relatively
stable price performance and relatively little social strife and labor disruption, such as Germany and Japan, have a structural advantage in cap-
114
TABLE 29.—Export shares in trade in manufactures of 11 industrial countries, 1966—76
[Seasonally
Period
United
States i
United
Kingdom 2
adjusted]
Germany
France
Italy
Japan
Others 3
Percent of total value *
1966..
1970..
1972..
1973..
1974.
1975.
20.1
18.5
16.1
16.1
17.2
17.7
13.4
10.8
10.0
9.4
8.8
9.3
19.3
19.8
20.2
22.1
21.7
20.3
8.6
8.7
9.3
9.5
9.3
10.2
6.9
7.2
7.6
6.8
6.7
7.5
9.7
11.7
13.2
12.8
14.5
13.6
22.0
23.3
23.5
23.3
21.8
21.4
1975: III.
IV..
18.7
18.3
9.2
9.4
20.1
19.6
10.1
9.9
7.9
7.9
13.6
13.5
20.4
21.5
1976: L._.
II5..
III K
17.2
17.5
17.5
9.2
8.8
8.7
20.5
20.4
21.1
9.7
10.3
9.7
6.6
6.3
7.5
14.8
14.7
14.7
22.0
22.0
20.7
Percent of total volume *
1966..
1970..
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
20.8
18.5
17.5
18.9
20.3
20.2
12.6
10.8
9.7
9.8
9.3
9.6
19.1
19.8
19.5
20.0
20.4
18.9
8.0
8.7
9.2
8.8
9.3
9.4
6.8
7.2
7.5
7.2
7.1
7.6
10.0
11.7
12.9
12.1
13.0
13.6
22.7
23.3
23.7
23.2
20.6
20.7
1975:111....
IV...
20.9
19.9
9.4
9.5
18.9
18.7
9.3
9.0
7.9
7.8
13.5
14.1
20.1
21.0
1976:1
18.6
18.9
18.8
9.2
9.2
8.9
19.5
19.3
19.6
8.8
9.6
9.1
6.9
6.6
7.6
15.8
15.4
15.3
21.2
21.0
20.7
l|_.
III5.
1 Excluding special category exports.
2 Including reexports, and adjusted for underrecording.
3 Belgium-Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland.
* Total value and total volume refer to total exports of manufactures of the 11 countries in this table.
5
Partly estimated.
Note.—Details may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: National Institute Economic Review, London.
turing large contracts. The certainty of timely delivery and the relative assurance that contracts will not be reopened because of cost overruns apparently make it worthwhile for the purchaser not to speculate on the possible exchange rate advantage that might derive from placing contracts in
a "weak currency" country. If this interpretation is correct, improvement in
underlying deficits may take a long time to become evident, even after the
adoption of adequate measures to correct the underlying conditions.
The large swing in world trade from an actual decline in 1975 to abovenormal growth rates in 1976—equaling about twice the rate of growth
in GNP—has eased external payments strains for a number of countries,
especially the primary producers. The worldwide trade expansion was reflected in a shift in the U.S. trade balance of about $20 billion (at an annual
rate) from a surplus of almost $9 billion in the fourth quarter of 1975 to a
deficit of about $12 billion in the fourth quarter of 1976. This change in the
U.S. trade position, which was in large part cyclical, was not, however, accompanied by similar changes in the trade positions of Germany and Japan.
115
Chart 7
Exchange Rates for Selected
Industrial Countries
INDEX, 1973 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)
140
_ UNITED STATES
120
80 I
i
i
i
i
i
I
i
i
i
i
i
I
i
1974
i
i
i
I
i
i
i
i
i
I i
i
i
i
1975
i
I
i
1976
JAPAN
120
I I I I I III III I III I III I I
1975
1976
1974
140
8 0
i
GERMANY
I
i i i i i I i i i
i
1974
i
i i i i I i
i
i
I i
1975
i
i
i
i
I i
i
i
i i
1976
100
i
i t i i I i i i i i
1974
i i i i i I i i i i i
1975
i i i i i
i i i i
1976
NOTE: INDEXES ARE BASED ON TRADE-WEIGHTED AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATES AND ARE FOR THE
LAST WEEK IN THE MONTH.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
116
i
Chart 7—Continued
Exchange Rates for Selected
Industrial Countries
INDEX, 1973=100 (RATIO SCALE)
140
80
120
i i i i i I i
i i i i I i i i i i
I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i
i i i
FRANCE
80
i i i i i I i
6 0
i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i
100
i i i i I i i i i i I i i i
UNITED KINGDOM
80
6 0 I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i
1974
1975
1976
NOTE: INDEXES ARE BASED ON TRADE-WEIGHTED AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATES AND ARE FOR THE
LAST WEEK IN THE MONTH.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
117
i
In fact trade surpluses of both these countries toward the end of 1976
were larger than they were the year before, a reflection not only of their
strong export performance but also of a relatively slower growth rate of
imports, particularly in Japan.
As the recoveries in Germany and Japan—as well as in the United States—
proceed, demand for imports is likely to rise concurrently. But the total
effect on world trade in 1977 exerted by about 1 or 2 percent faster growth
in each of the big countries—which would imply rates of growth that are
at the upper limit of what authorities currently judge to be compatible with
noninflationary growth—might raise the currently projected 8 percent rate
of growth of the volume of world trade to 9/ 2 percent. This increase
would help smooth the adjustment problems of the rest of the world, but it
could not be enough to make a crucial difference to those countries which
still find themselves in payments difficulties despite the large growth in aggregate foreign demand registered in the past year.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND GOVERNMENT
POLICIES
The slowing of the world recovery after the vigorous upswing earlier in
1976 raised questions about whether or not the recovery may be faltering.
Nevertheless, with the policy measures now in place or contemplated, estimated growth of real GNP in 1977 for the OECD area as a whole based on
national projections may amount to 4 / 2 to 5 percent. This rate of growth
approximates the 5 percent or so achieved for 1976.
In the three big industrial economies, recovery paths actually may not diverge substantially from earlier recoveries. Further, it must also be remembered that the breadth and sustainability of every upswing in the recent past
has been put into question at some time or other before it moved into the
broader expansion phase. The difference in the current recovery lies in the
greater role that inflationary expectations and other uncertainties may be
playing in business decisions. Thus the judgment must be that demand management policies in the three large economies need to remain prudent if the
gains achieved so far are not to be jeopardized—especially because the risk
inherent in stimulating considerably faster growth than the 5 to 6 percent
rates now aimed for may be too high. Nor would faster growth lead to an
appreciable easing of the policy problems that are being faced by other
countries.
A growing number of OECD countries are facing large and in some cases
rising external deficits as recoveries proceed. In many of these countries the
progress on the inflation side has been less than satisfactory, particularly
compared with achievements in the three major industrial economies.
Consequently, after underlying deficits which were masked by the recession surfaced once more, private capital inflows proved insufficient to
cover such deficits. In fact inflation fears have in a number of cases caused
such capital inflows to shrink at the same time that current account deficits
118
widened and the possibility of borrowing abroad began to reach its limits.
As a result adjustment policies are being forced on a number of countries.
Besides Italy and the United Kingdom, a growing number of smaller
countries are now experiencing problems in attracting a sufficiency of foreign
capital. Consequently in late 1976 the monetary authorities in several
countries moved to raise interest rates and tighten monetary conditions. This
was particularly evident in countries adhering to the European snake
arrangement, where exchange rate policy forced an adjustment in monetary
policy. Nominal interest rate levels in the second half of 1976 were approaching recent cyclical highs in Italy, the United Kingdom, the Low Countries,
and the Scandinavian countries (Chart 8). These policy actions clearly
bring out the dilemma faced by many authorities: how to deal with continued inflationary pressure without diminishing private investment incentives, since the latter are requisite to a resumption of a stable growth
path and a lasting reduction in unemployment. In this respect the strong
reliance on monetary policy exhibited in a number of countries raises questions regarding the appropriateness of the policy mix given longer-term
policy goals.
The reliance on monetary policy reflects what are perceived to be political
constraints in a number of cases. Where social friction is growing and union
support of demand management policies has been gained on the basis of understandings regarding transfer payments and public sector employment
opportunities, it is proving difficult to change the policy mix. Partly because
of such dilemmas a number of these countries have looked increasingly to
rising demand in the United States, Germany, and Japan to resolve their
external payments difficulties as well as to encourage domestic investment.
As noted above, however, stronger demand emanating from the three large
industrial countries can help to smooth the adjustment process, but it cannot
take the place of well-conceived domestic stabilization programs.
STABILIZATION POLICY AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
Countries have recently had to make difficult adjustments as a result of
the severe shocks the world economy has undergone in the past several years.
The large exchange rate changes that occurred during 1975 and 1976 partly
reflect this process. The task of formulating domestic stabilization policies,
never an easy one, has been made even more difficult by these circumstances.
Serious social and political problems had to be faced by authorities as they
attempted to bring their economies back to a path of balanced growth. Because of these difficulties, it is not surprising that there has been a search for
external sources of stability which might ease the hard choices faced by governments and the social partners in the private sector, business and labor. In
particular, some have looked to exchange rate stability as a means of reducing inflationary pressures.
119
Chart 8
Interest Rates in Selected
Industrial Countries
PERCENT PER ANNUM
-
UNITED STATES
16
-
12
-
SHORT-TERM RATE
••*
*\
8
4
-
LONG-TERM RATE
' - • • • • '
/
DISCOUNT R A T E
n
i
l
I
I I
I
I
i i i
i
I l I
1973
16
-
ii
i iMI
MI l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
1975
1974
-
JAPAN
12
-
••'
.--*"'
8
1976
-^
N
.y*—'* I
-
4
0
i
i
i
i
i
!
i
i
i
i
i
I
i i
i
i i I i i i
16
1 1 1 I I I I I I I I II
1974
1973
i
i i i i 1 i i i i i
1976
1975
- GERMANY
12
8
4
0
i i i i i I i i i i i I
1973
i
i
i
i
I
i
i
i i i Ii i i i i Ii i i i i Ii i i i i
i i
1974
1975
1976
16
SWITZERLAND
-
12
8
• •vui^.tr.^^. ^
-*• —
4
J
^
*,t
T
0
I l I l I I l l i i I I I
1973
l I I I I I I I I
1I
1974
I I I I I I I I I I I
1975
,
I I I I 1 I I I I1 1
1976
NOTE: SHORT-TERM RATES ARE GENERALLY 3-MONTH MARKET RATES AND LONG-TERM RATES ARE
GENERALLY GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS; THESE RATES ARE FOR THE LAST WEEK IN MONTH.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
120
Chart 8—Continued
Interest Rates in Selected
Industrial Countries
PERCENT PER ANNUM
16
CANADA
LONG-TERM RATE
/
;|> <>I
12
^*"\
-^.r-™—^
8
'
- • - - " - 4...
•
•
*..
_
4
•••.„.* V
SHORT-TERM RATE
DISCOUNT RATE
I I I I I 1 I I I I I 1 I I I I I I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I -
1974
1973
-
......
\
/
:
\
,
•••-. ^ ^ ^
I
I I I I I I i I I i I I i I I i i I I I I I 1 I i I I I I I I i I i J I I 1 I I I I I I I I 14
-
1975
1974
1973
20
1976
FRANCE
/
J
04
1975
1976
ITALY
"'
/
1?
\
*^*^
16
V'vA
Jy'
/
8
•'*•%...
/
4
0
r
I
•--1"
11 11 11 1 1 1 1 i I 1 1 1 i i I i
1973
i i i 1 i i i i i I i i i i
1974
1975
I i i i i I I i I
i i
1976
20
UNITED KINGDOM
16
12
0 4
I I I I I I I l I I l I I I I I I I I I I I l I l I I I l I l I I l l I I I I l I I l I I I
1973
1975
1974
1976
NOTE: SHORT-TERM RATES ARE GENERALLY 3-MONTH MARKET RATES AND LONG-TERM RATES ARE
GENERALLY GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS; THESE RATES ARE FOR THE LAST WEEK IN MONTH.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
121
One of the theories put forward in support of substantial intervention in
exchange markets is that currency fluctuations as they occur under the floating rate system provide an independent source of inflationary pressure. In its
flattest terms this view is that wherever inflation has led to currency
depreciation the decline in the exchange rate will create further inflationary
impetus, because of its effect on the domestic price level, and will therefore
make stabilization policies increasingly ineffective. In other words, exchange
rate changes under these circumstances have a destabilizing effect by creating
more inflation, leading in turn to further depreciation, and so on. Some
proponents of this theory conclude that this so-called vicious circle can be
broken by official intervention in the foreign exchange markets because this
action will prevent further depreciation of the exchange rate.
That theory, however, ignores the usual basic cause of the initial depreciation of a currency: domestic policies that have allowed inflationary tendencies in a particular country to diverge substantially from those in surrounding countries. Stabilization of the exchange rate through intervention
or borrowing abroad subsidizes imports and thereby suppresses already
present domestic inflation and prevents needed adjustment. This effect is
possible only for a limited period and when differentials in inflationary expectations are moderate. In the longer run an exchange rate change must be
seen not as an independent cause of inflation but as a release of inflationary
tendencies that had been suppressed earlier.
A more sophisticated variant of the vicious circle theory states that even
when adequate adjustment measures are in place import prices may be
forced to adjust to anticipated inflation. Because adjustment takes a considerable period of time, depending on the size of the disequilibrium needing to
be corrected, the exchange markets may in some cases bring about an initial
rate of depreciation that anticipates the length of the adjustment process. In
such instances, the longer the expected adjustment period, the greater the
initial overshooting of the exchange rate. Such overshooting at the beginning
of the adjustment period may indeed cause inflationary pressure. In the short
run, therefore, downward pressure on the exchange rate, resulting either
from overshooting or from autonomous movements in exchange rates independent of inflation trends, may complicate the effectiveness of stabilization
policies. This possibility is all the stronger in relatively open economies in
which indexing arrangements establish a close link between price and wage
movements. But, clearly, such a process will be sustainable only if policies are
followed that validate the resulting inflation. Thus, even this more sophisticated variant of the theory of a vicious circle is incomplete. To the extent
that adjustment measures cause a reversal of inflationary expectations and
reestablish a stable economic environment, the likelihood that a reflow of
capital will occur is increased, with a consequent tendency for the exchange
rate to move upward. The changes occurring through the current and the
capital accounts are hence likely to be offsetting. Thus the notion of a generalized vicious circle phenomenon is unwarranted.
122
Where stabilization policies are perceived to be adequate and are firmly
in place, bridging finance to cover the period until external deficits can be
reduced adequately and intervention in the market to counter disorderly
conditions that can arise without being related to inflation trends may be
helpful. In most cases where sound programs are in place and government
intentions to hold to them are felt to be firm, the need for such intervention
will usually be small. One should also note that the inflationary impact of
exchange rate depreciation often conceals the important role of these adjustments in restoring competitiveness and accommodating a reallocation of
resources toward the external sector.
It is not useful to ascribe the possible overshooting of exchange rate
changes and their consequences on the domestic price level to one exchange
rate system or another. If domestic policy goals diverge, and in consequence
inflation rates also diverge among countries linked together by trade and
capital movements, participants in the foreign exchange market will act
upon their expectations regardless of the international monetary system
under which they are then operating. If a fixed exchange rate system prevails, considerable speculation will occur and capital flows will after a while
push the rate off the peg. If the system is flexible, the response will be
similar. The underlying economic conditions and how market participants
perceive a government's determination to deal with underlying problems
are what determine actions in the market. And market participants will
use whatever system is available to them to obtain the adjustment they
consider necessary. Because they have perceived the reluctance on the part
of various governments to institute politically difficult measures, their actions in the exchange market have leaned toward the pessimistic side.
But under these circumstances most observers would judge such reactions
to be realistic rather than pessimistic. Hence it is not clear that market
actions have ordinarily led to an overdepreciation of exchange rates, or
indeed that they have been destabilizing.
Government intervention in the exchange markets aimed at holding a
rate when there is increasing evidence that this rate is not in line with
underlying economic conditions is likely to prove costly and wasteful of
scarce official financial resources. If anything is to be learned from the experience of the 1960s and early 1970s it is surely that intervention policy
by itself does not bring about needed adjustment and that the markets are
fully aware of this fact. In recognition of this reasoning the Heads of State
and Government of the six major industrial nations agreed in November
1975 that the aim of intervention policies should be "to counter disorderly
market conditions or erratic fluctuations in exchange rates," and further
that stable underlying economic conditions are requisite to stable exchange
rates. This agreement was affirmed in a wider context by the meeting of the
Interim Committee of the IMF in early 1976.
123
CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITIONS AND FINANCING
The changes in the world payments pattern from 1975 to 1976 largely reflected the upswing in economic activity. Thus the current account deficit of
the industrialized countries as a group increased substantially, while the
deficit of the non-oil developing countries (non-oil LDCs) shrank and the
surplus of OPEC rose (Table 30). But current account positions of individual countries reflected both the recovery itself and underlying disequilibria that became apparent once more during the recovery. For a number
of countries the appearance of a current account deficit, or a diminution
of a surplus, is a healthy sign from the point of view of both domestic activity and international equilibrium. As long as the oil-producing countries
are unable to spend all their current earnings on imported goods and services, a corresponding current account deficit must be shared among the
oil-importing countries. However, the distribution and the size of such
deficits are compatible with international equilibrium only if the countries
sustaining them exhibit a sufficient degree of economic vitality to attract
offsetting capital inflows.
TABLE 30.—Current account balances for OECD, OPEC, and other countries, 1973—77
[Billions of U.S. dollars]
Group of countries
OECD
OPEC
Non-oil developing countries.
Other countries 3...
Unexplained discrepancy
1974
1973
2H
-V4
l
A
-33
70H
-21
-VA
-7
1975
-6^
39H
-2914
-15H
12
19761
-23
41
-20
-12
14
19772
-25
45
-22
-14
16
1 Partly estimated.
Projection.
Sino-Soviet area, South Africa, Israel, Cyprus, Malta, and Yugoslavia.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
2
3
OECD CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITIONS
The shift in the current account balance of the United States from a surplus of $6.3 billion in the second half of 1975 to an estimated deficit of $1 *4
billion in the second half of 1976 contributed to smoothing the international
adjustment process (Table 31). No such support to better international
equilibrium was apparent in the shifts in the current account positions of
the other two major industrial countries. The Japanese current account
swung from a deficit of about $ 1 / 2 billion in the second half of 1975 to a
$^4-billion surplus in the second half of 1976. This shift, however, masked
the diminution during the second half of the year from the very large surplus
accumulated in the first half of 1976. The recent downward trend in Japan's
current account balance indicates that some further cyclical adjustment may
still be expected. Nevertheless the persistent Japanese surplus has complicated adjustment for other countries and has led to voluntary agreements to
restrict certain trade flows. In Germany the current account surplus in 1976
was about unchanged from its 1975 level. But because import demand in
124
Germany grew more in line with output than it had in Japan, there is less
reason to believe that Germany's current account surplus is likely to dimmish
significantly in the coming year.
TABLE 31.—Current account balances for OECD countries, 1974—76
(Billions of U.S. dollars; seasonally adjusted]
1975
Country
First
half
1
Second
half
First
half
-33.0
OECD: Total.__
United States
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
Other OECD-
1976
1974
_ _
-1.0
-5.5
-m
-.6
-1 7
-4.7
-6.0
9.7
-8 0
-8.7
-13.0
5.4
-2 5
.9
.6
3.3
1
-1.9
-6.8
6.3
-2 3
-1.6
-.7
.6
- 6
-1.8
-5.3
.8
-2.6
3.5
-1.9
2.3
-1.9
-1.1
-6.5
Second
halfi
-1%
-2H
X
-4
-
IH
3
-2
-7
4
Estimate.
Sources: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and national sources.
Because of the strong current account positions of Japan, Germany, and
a number of other countries, including Switzerland and the Netherlands,
the shift in the combined position of the OECD countries, from a deficit of
$55/2 billion in the second half of 1975 to a deficit of more than $15 billion in
the second half of 1976, included substantial increases in the deficits of
OECD countries other than the United States. Particularly large shifts were
recorded for France1 and some smaller OECD countries. The improvement in
the Italian position reflects in part the adjustment measures taken throughout the year, but it also results from the direct actions taken to curtail increases in imports and to limit purchases of foreign exchange. The position
of the United Kingdom was little changed on a year-to-year basis, but a deterioration occurred during the year, partly reflecting an export performance
that was somewhat disappointing, even after initially perverse effects of the
exchange rate depreciation were taken into account.
Thus, for the OECD countries, 1976 was a year of adjustment difficulties
and of wide disparities. However, measures taken toward the end of 1976
to help sustain the recovery, as well as further actions contemplated for
early 1977 in some "strong currency" countries, should help smooth
the adjustment process this year. Nevertheless, remaining difficulties must
not be underestimated, nor must the danger that they could lead to growing pressures for restrictive trade measures be taken lightly. Because such
pressures may be increasingly difficult to resist, it is important that progress
in the Multilateral Trade Negotiations (MTNs) be substantial. In particular, aside from the increase in general welfare that would result from trade
expansion associated with tariff cuts and the removal of nontariff trade barriers, the strengthening of the general framework of the GATT is important
in this context.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 7 - 9
224-250
O - 7
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
125
OPEC SURPLUSES
Adjustment problems of many countries continue to be complicated by
the large surpluses accruing to OPEC. In line with the upswing in economic activity, the OPEC current account surplus began to rise again in
1976. Import absorption possibilities have turned out to be very high
for most OPEC member states, even for Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates. Nevertheless the rise in the current account surplus for
OPEC in 1976 is a reflection of increases in the surpluses of the latter
countries and Kuwait as import expansion possibilities for these countries
lag well behind the inflow of oil revenues. The increase in the export
price of OPEC oil agreed upon at the end of 1976 will serve to raise the
OPEC surplus further in 1977. Because of port congestion, disarray in development programs that were accelerated too quickly, and surfacing financial constraints, a number of OPEC members have begun to reconsider their
domestic requirements. For this reason and because much of the prospective increase in production will probably be in Saudi Arabia, it is not likely
that much of the addition to oil incomes from price increases will quickly
be translated into foreign orders. Thus the investible surplus of OPEC is
likely to increase in 1977, assuming that economic growth in oil-importing
countries will continue, albeit at a moderate pace.
The way in which OPEC members have invested their financial surpluses has changed markedly over time (Table 32). Whereas OPEC
funds in 1974 were largely invested in short-term assets, the flow into
bank deposits and Treasury bills has declined sharply since then, while
equity investments and purchases of bonds and notes have continued to
grow. With the termination of the Oil Facility in the IMF and some diminution of OPEC grant aid in 1976, a larger share of OPEC's investible surplus
flowed to the market. However, considering the decline in the current account surplus, investible funds in 1976 are likely to have totaled about $40
billion compared with almost $60 billion in 1974.
The geographical distribution of OPEC's investment flows has also
changed considerably over the past 3 years. Investments in the United States
have risen from 20 percent of the total in 1974 to an estimated 30 percent or
so in the third quarter of 1976. On the other hand, OPEC's placements in
the United Kingdom fell from 12% percent of the total investible surplus in
1974 to nearly zero in 1975; and for the first 3 quarters of last year there was
a net liquidation of $1*4 billion of sterling assets,
NON-OIL LDCs
The increase in the OECD's current account deficit last year was reflected largely in a narrowing of the deficits of the non-oil developing countries. Because official financing flows to the non-oil LDCs from both OECD
countries and OPEC were little changed from 1975, the diminution of the
non-oil LDCs' deficit reflected primarily market transactions. Adjustment
126
TABLE 32.—Estimated disposition of OPEC investible surplus, 1974-76
[Billions of dollars]
Disposition
United States
.
Banking and portfolio placements.
Short-term bank deposits and Treasury bills
Long-term bank deposits
U.S. Treasury bonds and notes
Other domestic bonds and notes
Equities
Other (includes real estate and other direct investment,
prepayments on U.S. exports, debt amortization, etc.)__.
United Kingdom
Other developed countries
Less developed countries
._
Non-market countries
Euro-banking market 4
International financial institutions (including IMF Oil Facility).
Total investible surplus (identified above)
ESTIMATED INVESTIBLE SURPLUS
Error of estimates of surplus and unidentified investments
1 Preliminary.
2
Includes shift of over $1 million from prior year "direct investment" in a U.S.-incorporated petroleum company to
banking and portfolio assets.
3 Less than $0.5 million.
4
Claims on banks in currencies other than that of the country in which bank resides; excludes banks in the United
States.
« Not available.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of the Treasury.
measures taken by a number of non-oil LDCs in late 1975 and in 1976 were
reflected in lower import flows. But a more important factor in the smaller
deficit was the resumption of growth in the volume, and even more in the
value, of exports. Commodity prices began to rise early in the recovery. The
London Economist's "Index of Commodity Prices" in dollar terms showed
a rise of 40 percent between July 1975 and July 1976. With the pause in the
recovery at midyear, price increases appeared to come to a halt for some
commodities and to moderate for others. The overall result, however, was
that by the end of 1976 commodity prices on average, at least as measured
by the Economises index, had reached the inflation peaks reported in 1974.
This upward shift in the price level for commodities will continue to be
reflected in the export earnings of commodity producers.
EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES
The financing of external deficits in 1976 was accompanied by a very high
rate of activity in foreign exchange markets. The trade-weigh ted exchange
rates for certain major currencies showed considerable movement despite
relatively large balance of payments financing and heavy intervention by for-
127
eign central banks in exchange markets (Chart 7). The strains experienced
within the European snake arrangement were a major factor in the heavy
intervention activity. Early in the year heavy pressure on the French franc
led the authorities to break the link with the currencies adhering to the snake.
Upward pressures on the German mark, reflecting both the large German
current account surplus and the continued significantly better inflation
performance of the German economy compared with its trading partners,
caused considerable strain among the currencies remaining in the snake. In
the fall of 1976, therefore, the central values of the currencies within the
snake were realigned, with the mark appreciating by 2 percent, the Swedish
krona and Norwegian krone depreciating by 1 percent, and the Danish krone
depreciating by 4 percent. The largest changes in the foreign currency markets, however, involved the pound sterling, the Italian lira, and the Mexican
peso, which depreciated by 16 percent, 2134 percent and 37J/i percent
respectively against the U.S. dollar between the end of 1975 and the end
of 1976.
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
The unrest in the exchange markets and the financing difficulties that
surfaced during the year for a number of industrial and developing countries obscured the relative ease with which deficits of many other countries
continued to be financed. Activity in the international capital market was
brisk during 1976. On the demand side, expectations that borrowing costs
would rise in 1977 buoyed activity; in addition, there was an exceptionally
strong surge in Canadian demand for long-term funds. Concurrently the
supply of funds to the bond markets was encouraged by low demand for
domestic credit in the United States and Europe resulting in declines in
short-term interest rates during the year. As funds became more abundant,
bond yields began to fall. Medium-term credits arranged in the Eurocurrency market also showed a substantial increase last year, as rising
demands for finance from almost all the main categories of borrowers were
met by increases in supply sufficiently large to allow borrowing costs to decline. Total borrowing in the markets for medium-term Eurocredits, Eurobonds, and foreign bonds amounted to $48 billion in the first 10 months of
the year, representing an annual rate of $58 billion, an increase of more than
one-third from the 1975 total.
New issues of Eurobonds during the first 10 months of the year at $12j/2
billion were well above the volume issued in the corresponding period of
1975, a previous peak for the Eurobond markets. Industrial countries issued
69 percent of all bonds during the first 9 months of 1976, taking a considerably lower share of loanable funds than in 1975. Japan was very active in the
market, but some borrowers from countries in deficit—for example, the
French, the British, and especially the Canadians—also increased their use of
the Eurobond markets. Canadian issues of $2% billion in the first 10 months
of last year were more than twice as large as in all of 1975 because of
exceptional needs for long-term finance, relatively high domestic interest
128
rates, and tax changes that facilitated foreign issues by private companies.
Developing countries floated loans whose volume in the first 3 quarters of
1976 was more than twice that of the preceding year; their share of the
market consequently rose to 20*4 percent, 5 percentage points of which were
accounted for by oil-producing countries (Table 33).
TABLE 33.—Borrowing in international capital markets, 1974-76
[Billions of dollars]
1975
First
half
Total
Second
half
First
half
Third
quarter *
October *
40.8
Industrial countries..
Denmark
France
Spain
_. _
United Kingdom
Other
Oil-exporting countries
Algeria .
Indonesia
Iran
Venezuela
Other
30.3
11.2
6.9
12.0
12.3
4.7
5.0
19.0
.4
3.3
1.1
5.7
8.5
6.4
.3
.5
1.0
.6
4.0
2.8
0
3.6
.3
3.6
2.5
0
'.5
.3
1.6
'.6
.4
2.2
.3
1.0
1.2
ill
1.5
0
0
.1
.6
8
3.2
5
1.6
.3
.2
1.4
.1
1.1
0
.2
0
1.8
1.7
4
.3
.1
.1
.2
Nonmarket countries and
organizations
International organizations
and other
_ __
7.2
.5
1.6
1.5
.9
.6
7.9
f]
2.2
6
2
.7
0
.6
0
2.6
(3)
5.3
4.7
.1
1.2
1 5
.1
2.3
1.6
2.7
.3
3.3
.7
.1
1.1
1.1
2.7
1.1
n
.3
1.0
.4
1
2
0
.1
1.1
0
0
.1
1.0
0
2.0
2.0
1.6
.1
.7
.4
.1
.3
1.4
.2
.3
.7
(3)
9
.1
.5
._
.
.4
.3
.1
.9
3.6
__
.4
4.5
.4
3
_
Foreign bonds
Canada.
IBRD
Other
23.5
8.5
o.4
Other developing countries.
Argentina
Brazil
__
Mexico
Philippines .
Other
_
19.2
20.6
.8
Medium-term Eurocredits2
42.7
28.5
Total borrowing
Eurobonds..
Canada
France
Japan
Other
1976
1974
Capital market
10.2
1.2
1.3
1.2
6.5
5.6
.3
.8
.6
3.9
4.6
.9
5
.6
2.6
8.4
1.9
.8
.7
5.0
3.1
.6
.3
.3
1.9
1.0
.2
.1
.1
.6
7.8
2.0
3.1
2.7
11.9
3.4
2.4
6.1
5.1
1.3
.6
3.2
6.9
2.0
1.7
3.2
9.6
3.4
1.6
4.6
3.4
1.1
.5
1.8
.9
.3
0
.6
.1
i Preliminary.
Publicized credits of over 1-year maturity; represents commitments.
3
Less than $50 million.
3
Source: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).
The brisk activity in the Eurobond market was in part related to a shift
in interest rate differentials that may have contributed to the willingness of
investors to reduce their liquidity positions and extend the maturity of their
holdings. Short-term rates exhibited a sharp cyclical decline, while long-term
rates fell relatively little, partly because inflationary expectations appeared
to change slowly. Thus yield differentials changed greatly. Whereas at the
time of historically high short-term interest rates the differential between
Eurodollar deposit rates and Eurobond yields had been as high as 3 percentage points, Eurodeposit rates in 1976 were generally below Eurobond yields.
129
Bank lending also rose substantially in 1976. Like the rising activity in the
Eurobond market, the expansion of Eurocurrency loans and the increase in
claims on foreigners by head offices reflect the high level of liquidity in the
private sector in the main financial centers and the low loan demand from
domestic borrowers. Although there has been considerable discussion in private and government circles regarding the structure of the balance sheets of
the banking system, particularly regarding the exposure vis-a-vis certain
countries, bank lending to foreigners has risen briskly, at least through the
third quarter of 1976 (the latest date for which overall data are available).
Publicly announced Eurocurrency bank credits for 1976, at over $28*/2 billion, exceeded credit extensions in 1975 by 36 percent. Morgan Guaranty
estimated that the size of the market, net of interbank deposits, expanded
from about $250 billion at the end of 1975 to nearly $285 billion in September 1976.
In the first 10 months of last year U.S. banks increased their short-term
claims on foreigners by $10 5/2 billion, $8^2 billion of which was accounted
for by loans to Latin America. The continued extension of bank credits to
developing countries was not confined to U.S. banks: European banks have
also increased their assets vis-a-vis this group of countries. The risks associated with some of these loans are reflected in the rates that are being
charged. For example, in the medium-term Eurocurrency markets the premium charged some developing countries has risen to at least $/$ percentage
point at a minimum in recent months. There seems to have been a marked
shift in the way banks view the creditworthiness of certain countries.
Whereas in earlier periods the fact that a government had not touched its
reserve position in the IMF was taken to indicate a relatively low risk in
extending loans, banks now seem to favor lending to countries operating
under IMF-suggested surveillance. Because banks cannot attach macroeconomic conditions to their loans, or in any event monitor them, they
apparently feel more comfortable with debtors operating under IMF
conditionality.
OFFICIAL FINANCING
Official financing flows in 1976 constituted a somewhat larger proportion of the financing of external deficits than they did in 1975. Total
borrowing from the IMF in 1976 amounted to SDR 6.0 billion as compared
with SDR 3.9 billion in 1975. Although this change appears relatively small,
funds drawn from the IMF in 1976 reflected a higher amount of drawing on
regular IMF facilities subject to stricter conditionality as the Special Oil
Facility came to an end in March 1976. Access to IMF resources was eased
because credit availability in the IMF had been increased temporarily by 45
percent of quotas pending the ratification of the Amendments to the Articles
of Agreement, which among other things will put into effect the particular
quota increases agreed upon in Jamaica at the beginning of 1976.
Access to official financial resources was also considerably increased by
liberalization of the Compensatory Financing Facility in the IMF. This
130
facility is designed to help countries overcome shortfalls in export earnings
which are largely beyond their own control. During 1976 drawings approved
under this facility amounted to SDR 2.3 billion compared with a total usage
for the preceding 13-year period, 1963-75, of SDR 1.2 billion. The more
liberal access to the Compensatory Financing Facility has clearly done much
to ease external financial constraints and cyclical payments problems that
non-oil primary producing countries, both developed and developing, were
experiencing during the year. In fact, the non-oil LDCs as a group were able
to increase their reserve positions by SDR 7^4 billion during the first 10
months of 1976. However, this aggregate increase combines a number of
countries that experienced increasing external financing problems with
others that experienced an easing of financial constraints.
Finally, official financing resources available to developing countries are
being augmented by the disposal of part of the IMF's gold holdings. Onesixth (25 million ounces) of the IMF's 150 million ounces of gold is being
sold at public auction over a 4-year period for the benefit of developing
countries. A portion of the profits are being transferred directly to developing countries in proportion to their quotas in the IMF. The remainder of
the profits is being used to finance a Trust Fund, separate from the IMF but
managed by the IMF as trustee. This Trust Fund will provide balance of
payments support on concessional terms to the IMF's poorest members. An
additional 25 million ounces of the IMF's gold holdings are being sold to all
members in proportion to their quotas, or "restituted," at the present official
price of gold in exchange for currency usable by the IMF. Restitution is
being carried out in four annual installments of approximately 6% million
ounces each.
In May of last year the IMF announced a program of 16 auctions at
roughly 6-week intervals over a 2-year period covering sales of 12 5/2 million
ounces of gold, with 780,000 ounces to be offered for sale at each auction.
Five auctions were conducted under this program during 1976, in which a
total of 3.9 million ounces of gold was sold at an average price of $122 per
ounce and at a profit for the Trust Fund of $320 million. The first loans
under the Trust Fund program were being approved by the Executive Board
of the IMF at the turn of the year.
In late 1976 the Executive Board of the IMF reviewed the results of the
auction program and decided that it would be desirable—without disturbing
any of the basic tenets of the general agreement on gold—to shift to a definite
schedule involving somewhat more frequent auctions at which slightly
smaller amounts of gold would be sold. The first installment of restitution
was to take place in the first weeks of January 1977, to be followed on January 26 by the last auction to be held at the 6-week intervals established in
May of last year. Beginning March 2, 1977, auctions will be conducted on
the first Wednesday of each month, each involving the sale of 525,000
ounces.
13.1
The general assessment of the experience gained so far, following some
initial uncertainty about the potential effects of the IMF's sales and about
market interest and participation, is that the IMF's sales program has been
quite successful. All of the auctions were oversubscribed, and the IMF was
able to obtain prices on each occasion that were very close to prices prevailing in the market. The absence of a definite timetable for sales, however, gave
rise to questions about the timing and amounts of auctions, and has raised
needless questions and speculation in the market about the IMF's intentions.
The IMF's announcement in late 1976 of a definite schedule of dates and
amounts for auctions over the next few months should remove any remaining
uncertainties about the periodicity of IMF sales or the amounts to be
offered.
ADEQUACY OF OFFICIAL FINANCIAL RESOURCES
Despite the fact that official financial resources were augmented considerably during 1976, there is some question about the adequacy of such resources
for the period ahead. As noted earlier, the financing of external deficits,
except in a few instances, was managed relatively smoothly during 1976.
Extension of bank credit remained large, although during the year there was
a growing perception of the need for banks to become increasingly selective
vis-a-vis their debtors, and this was reflected in a growing desire on the
part of private lenders to see commitments backed by some kind of conditionally in terms of adequate economic policies. As a result a number of
authorities may have become less reluctant to draw on their credit with the
IMF.
Since the large increases in OPEC's export price of oil, external debt
levels in nominal terms have cumulated well beyond historical highs for
many countries. The OECD has estimated that current account deficits for
the OECD area since 1974, the first year of the high oil prices, have cumulated to $56 billion. The comparable figure for non-oil LDCs is $72 billion.
In a number of instances debt levels are such as to make private lenders
reluctant to extend further credit.
It is important that countries which have adopted satisfactory adjustment
measures to deal with underlying external disequilibria and high external
debt positions have access to international financial resources to carry them
through the adjustment period. The need for such bridging financing is
obvious because adjustments cannot take place quickly. Furthermore in the
absence of such financing there is a growing risk that political pressures to
institute trade restrictions cannot be resisted.
But, in addition, because of the continuing need to adjust to higher import
prices for energy, further financing may need to be available. As long as
OPEC surpluses persist, there can be no reversal in total debt positions. On
the contrary, external debts will continue to grow. In the interest of international equilibrium and the continuation of economic growth worldwide, it
132
is necessary that the strongest economies be willing not to resist either a widening of their current account deficits (or lessening of surpluses) or an increase in purchases of their assets by foreign investors.
For a large number of countries balance of payments financing continues
to be available from private sources. But a very high proportion of such
financing flows through commercial banks, which perform a large share of
the intermediation between OPEC surpluses and the deficits of other countries. There are internal risks in this situation: banks may at times make
financing too easy for certain countries and thus delay needed adjustment; in
other instances banks may be reluctant to promote adequate financial flows
to a particular country although the country in question could reasonably be
expected to be able to service such flows. In terms of the world financial structure there are therefore advantages to conditional multilateral financing of
some proportion of the oil-importing countries' current account deficits. The
IMF is the indicated institution to provide intermediation between the
strong creditor countries on the one hand (certain members of OPEC as
well as certain industrial countries with strong payments positions) and the
deficit countries on the other. It is important, from this point of view as
well as to strengthen the IMF's liquidity position, that the enlarged quotas
agreed to under the Sixth Review of Quotas should go into effect as early as
possible in 1977. This will require that the second Amendment to the Articles
of Agreement be ratified by many members who have not yet done so. Further, in recognition of the possible greater financing needs, the OECD countries have negotiated a Financial Support Fund, submitted to the Congress
last year. In addition, the IMF has advanced the date of the normal quinquennial review of its resources by 2 years. However, needs may materialize
sooner than the advanced completion date of that review would allow; and,
in any case, additional means may be required to augment the IMF's resources either generally or in terms of certain currencies.
NORTH-SOUTH ECONOMIC RELATIONS
The growing external financial problems that have followed the inflation,
the large increases in the price of energy, and the recession of the past several
years make it more important than ever that the economic interdependence
between the developed and the developing countries be fully recognized.
During 1976 discussions between developed and developing countries were
carried on mainly at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in Nairobi and the Conference on International Economic Cooperation (CIEC).
The central issues raised by the developing countries were: (1) Generalized debt relief; (2) preservation of the purchasing power of export
earnings; and (3) official development assistance.
With regard to generalized debt relief, the view of most developed
countries was that adequate channels already exist to handle acute cases of
financial crisis efficiently. During 1976, for example, there was a need to re-
133
schedule the external debt of Zaire. This was dealt with promptly through
the so-called creditor club channel. Apart from the specific instances of acute
cases of financial crisis where countries are forced to seek debt rescheduling,
it is not in the interest of debtor countries to seek debt relief. Indeed, an
abrogation of debt contracts would put into question their creditworthiness
and would inevitably hamper their future access to capital markets. In fact,
the easing of such access is an agenda item of considerable importance
to a number of developing countries.
In addition, the question of generalized debt relief really involves the
broad external financial situation of developing countries. Debt constitutes
only one aspect of the overall financial situation in a particular country;
therefore general debt problems address the basic question of the adequacy
of transfer of resources to developing countries. The availability of and need
for such resources are reviewed periodically. Such reviews may lead to the
conclusion that increases in aid flows are required either on a multilateral or
on a bilateral basis. It is important, however, that questions regarding debt
problems and possible defaults not be confused with those relating to the
adequacy of development assistance.
The level of export earnings of developing countries constitutes a crucial
element in their economic development. The purchasing power of export
earnings is therefore of considerable importance to policy planning. It is
directly related not only to economic conditions in the country in question
but also to those prevailing abroad. Stable noninflationary growth worldwide
is thus the basic prerequisite for continuing growth in the purchasing power
of domestic incomes and export earnings.
It must be recognized that developed and developing countries, each in
their own way, need to seek improvements in the conduct of their economic
policies with a view to achieving the most effective use of available resources
and assuring steady growth in years to come. Artificial ways of achieving such
stable conditions in lieu of appropriate policy measures will, of their nature,
be self-defeating in the longer run. Such artificial means, exemplified by attempts to relate the price of a particular good to that of some other good or
bundle of goods, or to freeze the so-called terms of trade of a particular
country, will inevitably introduce distortions into the economy in question as
well as into the world economy. If prices thus determined tend to be higher
than normal supply and demand relationships would produce, they will add
to the inflationary impetus in both consuming and producing countries. This
will occur directly through the price mechanism and indirectly through overinvestment in production facilities either for the goods in question or for substitutes whose production was uneconomic at competitive prices. If the price
were to be lower than market forces would indicate, underinvestment would
occur. In each case the eventual outcome would be detrimental to producers
as well as consumers. Further, competition, the major catalyst for economic growth, would be adversely affected domestically and internationally.
134
A freezing of relative prices, either partially or fully, would thus inhibit the
attainment of the stated goals of both developed and developing nations.
It has long been recognized that large fluctuations in export earnings that
can arise outside the control of the exporting countries can have important
detrimental effects on the well-being and growth of developing countries. But it is not realistic, or useful, to attempt to introduce new mechanisms
when existing ones are being improved and are likely to deal adequately
with the basic problems. The recent liberalization of the Compensatory
Financing Facility in the IMF is an example of a major improvement
effected in an already existing mechanism. The scheduled review of this
facility will determine the extent to which participants consider current
access to be adequate. In order to help minimize economic fluctuations,
which are detrimental both to the countries in which they occur and to
their trading partners, systematic consideration in producer and consumer
forums of ways to improve the stability and efficiency of specific commodity
markets can be useful. More generally, in the interest of both commodity
producers and other trading nations the consultative machinery on general economic developments and on their interaction among countries could
be improved. The possibilities for recognizing and solving mutual problems and mutual needs could thereby be strengthened.
135
CHAPTER 4
Policies to Increase Supply
ACROECONOMIC POLICIES are designed to encourage growth in
aggregate demand and to ensure full utilization of our resources without accelerating inflation. However, there are limits to what demand management policies by themselves can do in achieving these objectives. It is therefore necessary to supplement such policies with programs that will promote
the efficient use of human and material resources and thereby increase productive capacity. This microeconomic approach has received less emphasis
than monetary and fiscal policies in the past. Nevertheless more efficient
markets and greater effective supply can complement increases in aggregate
demand to bring about larger gains in employment and real growth with
less inflationary pressure.
In Chapter 1 we discussed the sources of the recent productivity slowdown in the private sector. To some extent the lower rate of productivity
increase and the accompanying decline in the growth of potential output
are related to the impact of the Federal Government on various sectors of
the economy. This chapter discusses some major issues and possible approaches to policy in several areas where Government is involved in economic activity: labor markets, the regulation of business, agricultural
markets, and tax policy.
M
STRUCTURAL AND INDUCED UNEMPLOYMENT
Output and employment can be increased by improving the efficiency
with which labor resources are utilized. Improvements can be accomplished
by a redesign of public programs to reduce involuntary unemployment and
by lessening the incentives that induce unemployment. Unemployment
problems and proposed policies have been discussed in some detail in recent
Economic Reports. This section summarizes some of the major issues regarding structural and induced unemployment, focusing on policy measures intended to generate a more efficient use of the Nation's labor resources.
An examination of policies to reduce unemployment requires an understanding of the kinds of unemployment and their causes. Frictional unemployment arises from the normal operation of the labor market; cyclical
unemployment is the result of a less than full utilization of productive
capacity due to a recession; induced unemployment is a consequence of
136
implicit and explicit subsidies built into public programs; and long-term or
structural unemployment is caused by rigidities that create an imbalance
between the skills and other characteristics possessed by workers and those
demanded in the labor market.
FRICTIONAL AND CYCLICAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Frictional unemployment exists even in periods of very low overall unemployment. In a dynamic free-market economy layoffs occur as employers
adjust their level of employment to such factors as changes in the relative
demand for goods and services, changes in the relative efficiency of firms,
and seasonality in production or consumption. In addition, workers leave
jobs to search for better employment opportunities, and they enter and
leave the labor force at will. These layoffs and quits facilitate the process of
reallocating workers to more productive activities. Furthermore, when
workers enter the labor force for the first time or reenter after having been
outside the labor force for a time, they engage in a period of job search.
There is usually a time lag in finding an acceptable job offer, in part because workers, regardless of the cause of their unemployment, may not accept
the first offer they receive. These lags result in periods of unemployment
that are generally short and are required if labor resources are to be used
efficiently.
Other types of unemployment are likely to be socially wasteful. Much attention has been given to the hardships and waste associated with cyclical
unemployment. Cyclical unemployment, the primary target of macroeconomic stabilization policy, will be eliminated when unemployment is reduced to a level where further increases in aggregate demand will affect
primarily the rate of inflation, with little impact on employment and output.
Policies to reduce cyclical unemployment are discussed in Chapter 1.
Yet even at what economists regard as full employment, some unemployment may exist in addition to that which is purely frictional. A part of
this unemployment is a consequence of, or is induced by, public policy;
and some is structural, the result of rigidities in the labor market that make
it difficult for some persons to find a job and remain employed for a long
period.
INDUCED UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION
Induced unemployment arises from incentives built into some public programs. One source of induced unemployment is the unemployment compensation system. Unemployment compensation has proved to be an extremely useful instrument for macroeconomic and income distribution
policies. It serves as an important automatic stabilizer. Without the necessity for new legislation, additional benefits are paid as unemployment from
job layoffs increases, thereby helping to maintain the purchasing power of
the unemployed. The system also serves as a means of distributing the costs of
a recession more equitably: it replaces part of the earnings lost as the result
137
of a downturn in economic activity. For some, an important function of the
system is to enable an unemployed worker to decline an offer during the
early stages of job search if the wages are low and the working conditions
poor compared with the worker's previous job.
Despite its highly beneficial effects, the unemployment compensation system has some undesirable consequences. The system tends to increase unemployment above the socially efficient level largely because workers and their
employers do not pay the full cost of their increased unemployment. The
implicit subsidies in the system are the result of the weak "experience-rating"
in the payroll tax paid by employers and the favorable income tax treatment
of benefits relative to earnings from employment. In principle, the employerpaid payroll tax that finances the unemployment compensation system is
experience-rated. That is, the tax levied on an employer should vary in
direct proportion to the benefits received by the employer's workers;
and this in turn varies with the unemployment experience of the firm's
workers. In practice, however, the difference between the maximum and
the minimum tax rates is small, and for many employers a reduction in
layoffs does not lower their tax liability. There is therefore an economic
incentive during periods of slack work arising from cyclical, seasonal, or
other factors for the employer to place workers on a job layoff, or keep
them on the layoff for a longer period, rather than retaining them on the
payroll. For this reason firms in seasonal and cyclical industries tend to be
subsidized at the expense of those in more stable industries, and the extent of
seasonal and cyclical variations in employment and output is increased.
The unemployment compensation benefits that workers receive are not
subject to Federal payroll or income taxation. Employers and employees
may view the system as a means of providing tax-free income to workers.
The implicit subsidy tends to promote more and longer layoffs.
The failure to tax benefits also creates inequities among workers. The
extent to which the benefits replace earnings net of taxes depends in part
on the other income of the family. Because of the progressive tax schedule,
for workers with the same earnings and work history the benefits will
replace a larger proportion of after-tax earnings, the higher the income of
other family members. This situation is clearly contrary to conventional
notions of equity.
If unemployment compensation benefits were taxed as earnings and pretax
benefits were raised so that average after-tax benefits for low-income workers
were unchanged, the average unemployed low-income worker would be
unaffected. Raising pretax benefits would also require an increase in the
employer-financed payroll tax, and if the tax were fully experience-rated
the tax increase would reduce the incentive for layoffs.
In recent years there has been extensive research by economists on various aspects of the unemployment compensation system. Although the estimated magnitudes of the impacts vary, the studies tend to arrive at the same
138
qualitative conclusions. For example, they find that increased coverage of the
work force and a longer duration of benefits tend to increase the unemployment rate and lengthen the duration of unemployment. In addition, the
larger the unemployment compensation benefits relative to earnings net of
taxes, the longer the duration of unemployment is likely to be. The requirement that recipients actively search for, be available for, and accept suitable
employment appears to be unevenly administered. Some research suggests
that more stringent enforcement of these requirements results in a lower State
unemployment rate.
Reduction of the implicit subsidies currently built into the unemployment
compensation system would lead to a more efficient utilization of labor
resources. This may be accomplished by greater use of experience-rating of
all employers in the payroll tax and by taxing benefits as if they were earnings. These changes would not reduce the effectiveness of unemployment
compensation as an automatic stabilizer. These and other issues concerning
the unemployment compensation system are to be studied by the National
Commission on Unemployment Compensation, due to be established in
accordance with legislation enacted in 1976.
STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Even after the economy has returned to full employment some groups
in the population may still have considerable difficulty finding and retaining
employment. Unemployment among such groups may arise from the lack
or obsolescence of skills, from regional mismatching of workers' skills and
job requirements, and from wage rigidities. The mobility of workers and
enterprises makes it likely that the decline in unemployment in the coming
years will be fairly widespread across the country. Although regional growth
rates of employment will differ, it is not likely that large depressed areas, like
Appalachia in the 1950s, will emerge as a serious problem. The long-duration
unemployment rate—the number unemployed 15 weeks or longer as a percentage of the labor force—was 2.5 percent in 1976. However with the approach to full employment, it can be expected to decline toward the prerecession level of about 0.9 percent.
A number of groups, however, including youths with little schooling, and
in particular black youths, and older workers laid off during the recession
who have had a long period of unemployment, may continue to encounter
substantial problems in finding work. Policies that reduce the barriers
that are chiefly reponsible for structural unemployment would do much
to promote equality of employment opportunities. It is therefore useful
to review current and proposed policies designed to expand job opportunities
for persons with difficulties in finding and retaining employment. These
policies include public service employment, job training programs, and an
employment tax credit.
139
Youth Employment
Youths have much higher unemployment rates than adults (Table 34).
Most of this higher unemployment, however, is frictional and arises from
the frequency with which youths enter and leave the labor force. Labor
force entry generally entails a period of job search during which the person
is unemployed. Many unemployed youths are entering the labor force for
the first time. Others are entering it again after leaving it for a time,
frequently because of the dovetailing of schooling and work—or, for young
women, the dovetailing of household responsibilities (including child care)
and work in the labor market. In addition, in an attempt to gain experience
in different types of employment youths are more likely than adults to quit
a job and search for another. Thus, although the unemployment rate of
youths in 1973, the most recent year of low unemployment, was substantially
higher than that of adults, there was little difference in unemployment rates
arising from the loss of a job.
The average duration of unemployment among youths is about half that
for adult males: in 1973, 7.1 weeks for teenagers compared with 14.0 weeks
for men aged 25-59. However, the long-duration unemployment rate—those
unemployed 15 weeks or longer as a percentage of the labor force—was
greater for teenagers: 1.6 percent compared with 0.7 percent for adult
men aged 25-59.
Although teenagers are less likely to be employed than adults are, the
number of youths who are neither enrolled in school nor working is not
likely to be large when the economy is near full employment. Of the 15.8
million teenagers (aged 16-19) in the civilian noninstitutional population in
October 1973, only 1.9 million (of whom 1.4 million were females) were
not enrolled in school and not employed. Most of the female teenagers not in
school and not employed were providing home care for their own children.
TABLE 34.—Civilian unemployment rates under alternative definitions by age and
sex, 1973
[Percent)
All civilian
workers *
Age and sex
Job losers and
job leavers2
Job losers8
14.5
4.7
2.8
20-24 years:
Men
Women
7.3
8.4
4.8
4.0
3.4
2.1
25 years and over:
Men
Women
2.5
4.0
2.0
2.3
1.7
1.7
16-19 years, both sexes
1 Percent of civilian labor force.
Percent of civilian labor force excluding new entrants and reentrants.
Percent of civilian labor force excluding new entrants, reentrants, and job leavers.
Note.—All unemployment rates are based on civilian labor force (as indicated in footnotes) for age and sex group
specified.
Sources: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and Council of Economic Advisers.
2
8
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For some youths unemployment is involuntary, and they have considerable
difficulty in finding and retaining jobs. This may be especially true for
those who come from disadvantaged families and those with little schooling. An appropriate role of public policy has been to expand job opportunities, particularly for the youths who, on their own, would not easily find
and keep jobs in the private sector.
Youths need to develop the skills, habits, and job-related experience in
productive activities that lead to successful employment in the private sector. About 85 percent of all civilian employment is in the private
sector; and as youths mature, this is where most will find jobs. The sheltered
environment of prolonged public service employment appears to be an inappropriate mechanism for generating employment for youths. On a shortterm basis, however, disadvantaged youths in particular may derive important training or educational benefits from the experience provided by public
programs.
Substantial investments have been made in public programs to employ and
train disadvantaged youths. In 1976, the Government financed at a cost of
$563 million nearly 1 million job slots in local prime sponsor programs for the
employment of disadvantaged youths in the summer. The Job Corps program
provided training for 64,700 economically disadvantaged youths (the equivalent of 20,200 full-year positions) at a cost of $186 million in fiscal 1976.
Under Title I of the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act, 2.1 million persons, the majority of whom were youths, received job training or work
experience at a cost of $1.7 billion in fiscal 1976. These programs are preparatory to regular jobs in the private economy.
For youths, job opportunities in the private sector should be expanded to permit these young people to take full advantage of the training
they have acquired in school or in special public training programs. Although
aggregate job creation is largely the function of macroeconomic policy, there
are significant impediments to attaining high rates of employment for
youths even when the labor market for adults approaches full employment.
The Federal minimum wage has been identified as one such impediment.
A substantial body of research suggests that minimum wage legislation
tends to diminish employment opportunities for teenagers, but does not have
a significant net effect on adult employment. Though estimated impacts
vary, some recent studies suggest that a 10 percent rise in the ratio
of the minimum wage to the average wage would decrease teenage employment by about 100,000 to 150,000. The reason is that many employers find
it too costly to employ teenagers, particularly those with few skills, given
the Federal minimum wage (currently $2.30 per hour in most jobs) and
mandated payroll taxes and fringe benefits. Coverage under Federal minimum wage legislation has been extended substantially in recent years from
65 percent of the private nonsupervisory workers in 1965 to 87 percent in
1976. This extension of coverage, especially at a time when youths make
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up an increased proportion of the population aged 16 and over, has limited the increase in youth employment and labor force participation.
In recognition of the adverse effects of the minimum wage on employment,
there has been an expansion in the number of exemption certificates which
permit employers in certain circumstances to pay youths and the disabled a
wage below the applicable minimum wage. In fiscal 1976 exemption certificates covering 800,000 persons were issued, of which three-fourths were
for full-time students working part-time in their educational institutions.
The exemption program entails a number of problems, and the effectiveness of allowing more exemptions needs to be considered. The special applications that are required raise the administrative costs to the Government and employers. In addition, the program discriminates among employers of youths doing essentially the same job: a subminimum wage can
be paid to a student working in a private university, but because of limitations on the number of exemptions it need not apply if a student is working
in a comparable job in any other nongovernmental enterprise. The program
also discriminates between youths in school and those out of school.
For these reasons, many believe the exemption program should be extended to all employers and to all youths regardless of school enrollment.
This could be accomplished by incorporating a teenage differential into the
minimum wage law. Alternatively some believe it would be more appropriate
to let the Federal minimum wage lag behind the growth in average wages
with the aim of promoting job opportunities not only for youths but also
for partially disabled or low-skilled adults.
Long-Term Unemployment
For some adult workers who have experienced long periods of unemployment, reemployment opportunities may be limited even after macroeconomic
policies have reduced the unemployment rate to nearly the full-employment
level. The situation would be particularly distressing for those who had exhausted their unemployment compensation entitlement. Public service employment (PSE) and job training programs are often viewed as mechanisms
for expanding job opportunities for persons with long-term unemployment.
Thus far, however, these spending programs have had little net impact on
employment compared to tax reductions that increase the deficit by the same
magnitude. With appropriate modification of programs, however, the favorable effects could be larger.
In terms of overall macroeconomic effect, the long-run job-creating impact
of federally financed PSE programs appears to be quite limited. Initially most
of the State and local government jobs funded by the program may represent
a net increase in the number of jobs in comparison with what would otherwise exist. With normal attrition and the expansion in regular State and local
government jobs, an increasing proportion of the funds are soon used to pay
for job slots that would exist in any case. Preliminary estimates suggest, for
example, that after 3 quarters about 65 percent of federally funded PSE
jobs are net additions to employment; but after 2 years the net addition
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may be as low as 10 percent. Thus the funding for the other 90 percent
of the jobs becomes essentially a form of Federal revenue sharing with State
and local governments. Then the job-creating impact of a PSE program is
little different from an expansion in revenue sharing.
Persons with prospects of finding a regular job in the private sector during
the expansion in economic activity might be less inclined to search for a
regular job if they are in a PSE job. On the other hand, adults with longterm unemployment problems are the ones who would appear to be the most
suitable candidates for the more than 300,000 public service employment job
slots currently funded by the Government.
Several factors make it difficult to target PSE programs toward persons
with long-term employment problems. For example, State and local governments tend to hire the more able among the unemployed for federally funded
PSE jobs. As a result, PSE participants are more likely to be persons in the
prime age groups and to have more schooling than the average unemployed
worker. This has the advantage of maintaining the current employment
practices of State and local governments. Yet persons with these characteristics are also those who have the least difficulty in finding a job in the private
sector. There is therefore a tradeoff between attempting to maintain State
and local government employment practices and inducing these governments
to hire persons with difficulty in finding a job.
The relatively high wages in PSE jobs also attract persons who are employable in the private sector. In 1976, for example, the average annual
Federal contribution to wages and benefits in a PSE job was about $7,700
(some localities supplement the Federal contribution), over 50 percent more than a worker could receive in wages and benefits for full-time
full-year employment at the minimum wage. It has therefore been suggested
that these jobs be limited to persons with long-term unemployment, such as
those who have exhausted their unemployment compensation entitlement,
and that they be paid only the minimum wage or the subminimum permitted
under Department of Labor exemptions (generally 85 percent of the applicable minimum wage). While the 1976 amendment to the temporary employment assistance program addresses in part the long-term unemployment
aspect of these suggestions, it retains the requirement that the PSE jobs pay
the prevailing wage. The need to keep wages low has been subject to some
criticism. The payment of such low wages may adversely affect the efficiency
of workers holding these jobs. Some are also concerned that a family could
not be adequately supported on such low wages. However, the regular income maintenance system (AFDC, food stamps, medicaid) would provide
supplementary support to low-income families which include a participant
in a PSE program. In addition, a low PSE salary would permit a program
with a larger number of participants for the same budget cost; as a result,
more workers would gain job experience and fewer workers would be discouraged from taking a private sector job when employment opportunities
improve. Indeed this approach would make it more explicit that creating
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jobs and reducing poverty are separate issues, since many persons with longterm unemployment may not be in families with very low incomes.
Job training programs are designed as a means of upgrading the skills of
the structurally unemployed. These programs seem to promise a satisfactory
solution to the structural unemployment problem. The evidence currently
available, however, suggests that the experience has been disappointing.
If adjustment is made for the probability that a trainee would eventually
become employed without the program, the effects of the training programs on real wages and employment appear to be small. This outcome is
not surprising since persons with good training characteristics and prospects
would acquire the training on their own or on a job. Persons with few
skills and a record of long-term unemployment are largely those for whom
successful retraining is most difficult. Part of the problem may be in identifying the programs that are most likely to be successful for particular trainees.
The difficulties with past public service employment and job training programs should be considered before expanding the present programs. Much
may be learned, however, from careful evaluation of the present programs
and from small-scale experimental programs.
EMPLOYMENT TAX CREDIT
Employment tax credits have been suggested as a means of increasing
employment during a recession or increasing employment opportunities for
persons who experience structural unemployment. The purpose of an employment tax credit is to encourage the direct use of labor relative to capital
and other inputs. Under different variants of such a program, in addition to
counting wages as a regular cost of business, firms could claim a credit
against their corporate income tax for some portion of the wages or payroll
taxes paid for all workers on their payrolls, workers added to their
payrolls compared to some base period, or workers drawn from designated
groups in which high rates of unemployment exist. These approaches pose
a number of problems.
One problem in using an employment tax credit as a countercyclical
tool is that the largest effects on employment may not appear until the
economy is well on the road to recovery. This delay could occur because the
substitution of labor for capital and other inputs which the tax credit encourages becomes greater the longer the period of adjustment. To be countercyclical an employment tax credit would need some mechanism through
which the subsidy gradually decreases as overall unemployment declines.
If employment in a recession trough is used as the benchmark, during a
business cycle recovery an employment tax credit would tend to subsidize
firms for increases in employment that would occur in any case. This effect
might be ameliorated if employment prior to the downturn were used as the
base. If firms anticipate a renewal of a countercyclical employment tax credit
in the future, cyclical swings in employment—and hence in unemployment—
would be intensified. An inequity would arise among firms—some receiving
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large subsidies through the tax credit and others, particularly those with
stable employment, deriving no benefit from these subsidies. As a result of an
employment tax credit, there would be additional disincentives to firms to
maintain stable employment.
There are also difficulties in attempting to use an employment tax credit
to expand job opportunities for particular groups. It is difficult, for example,
to identify individuals with long-term unemployment problems, unless the
program is limited to those having exhausted the unemployment compensation benefits available to them. Employers would have an incentive to hire
the most employable persons in any group (such as aged or disabled persons
and teenagers) which is eligible for the subsidy. Jobs may therefore go to
persons who would not have difficulty finding employment in any case, even
though they are members of a demographic group broadly defined as hard
to employ. Moreover the narrower the group eligible for the subsidy, the
greater the administrative costs to certify eligibility for the tax credit. Experience with the present tax credits for persons on welfare—for example,
the WIN tax credit—suggests that an employment tax credit is not likely to
expand substantially the job opportunities for persons with difficulty finding and retaining employment. The result could be to subsidize many jobs
without achieving much increase in the employment of those individuals
whom the program was intended to assist.
While superficially there is much appeal to an employment tax credit, the
problems of implementation are great and the result is likely to be a less
efficient utilization of labor resources.
SUMMARY
Macroeconomic policy is necessarily the primary mechanism for reducing
the current excessively high unemployment. As the economy continues to
recover, cyclical unemployment will decline. Much of the long-term unemployment, which currently appears to be structural, will also lessen as job
opportunities expand. As a result of increasing employment the amount of
job training will increase, since much training occurs through work
experience.
Declines in unemployment beyond those attainable by macroeconomic
policy may be brought about by reducing the incentives for unemployment
currently built into the unemployment compensation system because of weak
experience-rating of employers and the tax-exempt status of the benefits.
These issues will be studied by the National Commission on Unemployment
Compensation. Job opportunities for teenagers may be improved by allowing the applicable minimum wage to be lower in relation to average wages.
Public service employment programs are most likely to increase job opportunities for persons having difficulty in finding employment if eligibility is
restricted to the long-term unemployed (for example, unemployment compensation exhaustees) and if the wage is low relative to wages in the private
sector. Income maintenance objectives are more successfully addressed by
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the means-tested income transfer programs which focus on family income.
The summer employment program may be helpful for disadvantaged youths
by providing experience with a work environment and routine.
Thus far, training programs for adults with employment difficulties have
not been shown to have more than very limited benefits and they have
incurred substantial costs. The problems of structural unemployment and
training mismatches that remain despite private initiatives appear to be very
difficult to solve. Until we learn how to ameliorate these problems effectively,
small-scale experimental programs and careful evaluation of present programs should be useful. The current large-scale public employment and
training programs should not be expanded at this time.
Although it has much superficial appeal, an employment tax credit may
create far more difficulties than it can resolve. The impact on employment
is likely to be small, particularly in the near term, and new distortions in
the use of resources as well as new inequities may emerge.
GOVERNMENT REGULATION
The Government regulates a substantial part of the economy in an effort
to improve economic performance and promote individual welfare. Such
regulation has created costs as well as benefits, and some anticipated benefits
of regulation have never been realized. Regulation has also been difficult
to reform or abandon, even when recognized as counterproductive, because
elements of regulation frequently tend to satisfy certain special interests. Historically, some business enterprises have sought to avoid competition,
and have sometimes been aided in doing so by regulation; other rules and
procedures create vested interests and capital values which reform would
endanger.
The motives behind efforts to regulate economic activity have generally been commendable, and the net effect of some Government regulatory
activity has been positive. Unfortunately it often turns out that regulatory
processes are not capable of achieving their intended goals or have generated
greater costs than would result from the original problem. In some instances
the problem prompting the adoption of regulation has passed but the regulations remain. In other cases the regulatory process has proved too inflexible
to accommodate changes in the economy, and a previously beneficial regulatory activity may become ineffectual or harmful. In each of these instances
reform of the regulations would lower the nonproductive use of Government
resources and would free private resources for productive tasks. More important, some regulation is harmful as well as wasteful since it distorts the
allocation of resources and thus lowers the potential output of the economy.
The reform of such regulations would increase efficiency, thus making the
economy better able to provide current consumers with goods and services
and to ensure growth in output for the future.
A major purpose of regulation is to control prices charged and services
rendered in industries considered to be natural monopolies, especially those
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in the transportation and public utility sectors, in order to prevent firms in
these industries from exercising market power. The economic characteristics
of these industries are such that it is more efficient for a single firm to supply the entire market. Price regulation is therefore usually accompanied by
entry restrictions. Price and entry regulations have been extended, however, beyond the select cases where control of monopoly power justifies their
implementation. They have been applied to many industries which seem
capable of vigorous and healthy competition under less restrictive regulations : for example, trucking and airlines. In these cases it is appropriate to
compare the results of price and entry regulation with the level of price and
output that would be realized in a freely operating market.
If a regulated price exceeds the market-determined price, consumers will
purchase less and output will be reduced. If a regulated price is below the
competitive level, firms will provide less output than they would if they
were not regulated. In both cases price and entry controls reduce the
production of goods and services in the regulated markets. Resources are then
reallocated to alternative uses which are less valuable to consumers. The
result, coupled with the administrative costs of imposing and enforcing regulations, is to reduce efficiency and production.
Most regulatory legislation since the mid-1960s affects business activity in
much more direct ways and in much greater detail than is true of simple
price controls. The Federal Government has intervened in such matters as
product quality, producer liability, conditions affecting the health and safety
of employees, waste disposal, and equal employment opportunity. Much of
this legislation is an attempt to deal with the problem of externalities—real
costs or benefits that affect individuals other than those directly involved
in a transaction. Economic efficiency requires that prices appropriately reflect the full cost to society of producing each good or service. External
costs or benefits must be incorporated into each transaction, or internalized,
for efficiency to be achieved. The internalization should be accomplished in
the least costly manner. Unfortunately some of the regulations concerning
health, safety, and the environment appear to be ineffective, and we bear
their costs without enjoying much, if any, corresponding benefit. In other
cases the benefits might have been achieved at a smaller sacrifice of other
goods and services.
There are costs of extending regulation in a free-market economy that
go beyond the direct impact on supply. First, the regulatory process itself
uses public and private resources which could be used to produce other,
more valuable, goods or services. Second, some regulatory procedures reduce
the ability of industry to respond to changing supply and demand conditions
and so create bottlenecks in regulated sectors of the economy. For example,
the lag in implementing price adjustments to reflect the changing supply or
demand conditions confronting public utilities can influence the timing of
their investment decisions, causing shortages or excess capacity. Third, regulations which protect existing firms from potential competitors may reduce
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incentives for technological improvement and innovation. Fourth, the uncertainty introduced by the regulatory process itself will cause resources to
be used in unproductive ways. Finally, if price controls lower the expected
returns to new capital investment, capital formation will be retarded and
the economy will grow more slowly.
The effects of regulation on supply can be organized into three categories: cases where the regulated price exceeds the long-run free-market
price; cases where the regulated price is less than the long-run competitive
market price; and cases where regulation increases the costs of production.
Regulation reduces the flow of output from the regulated industry in all three
categories.
REGULATED PRICE ABOVE MARKET PRICE
In a number of instances a government-dictated price has been established
at a level exceeding the free-market price. This situation might arise from
a public effort to ensure profitability and encourage investment in a new
industry. Or it might develop from a private industry's securing legislative
protection against "unfair" price competition from another industry producing a substitute product. Or it could occur when regulation prevents relative prices from responding to changes in supply or demand conditions.
Regardless of the circumstances which bring about the excessive price, government price control can develop into a legal and enforceable means of
attaining the goals of a private cartel.
The establishment of a higher price is usually accompanied by restrictions
on entry or output as well. When a regulated price is higher than the freemarket level, existing producers seek to expand output and new firms are
attracted to the industry by the prospect of high profits. Alternatively, an
excessive price may deter the withdrawal of firms and production capacity
from an industry with declining demand. At the same time, consumers confronted by increased prices restrict their purchases. Because firms offer a
larger supply than consumers wish to purchase at the regulated price, pressures are generated for the regulatory authority to limit entry and restrict
expansion of output in order to protect the profits of the existing producers.
Restricting entry, however, will not necessarily result in higher profit rates.
The higher expected profits per unit of sales encourage each firm to try to
increase its total sales by using nonprice methods of competition, such as
advertising and quality competition. Because these activities are costly, profits are dissipated. Under such circumstances competition leads to higher
costs because price competition is precluded. Consumers may derive some
benefits from such nonprice competition, but they are denied the opportunity
to choose among alternative price-quality options, as they can in the free
market, and thus are made worse off.
Motor Carriers
Trucking provides a good example of the economic costs of regulations
that hold prices above the free-market level. In interstate trucking an anti-
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trust exemption permits motor carriers to agree upon rates through rate
bureaus, which are groups of truckers that function like private cartels.
Rates tend to be set high enough to cover the costs of less efficient carriers.
The result is higher prices to consumers. The Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) regulates both the entry of new carriers and the expansion of
route authority by existing carriers. These restrictions frequently require some
trucks to drive extra miles on circuitous routes, prohibit access to intermediate points on routes, limit the commodities that can be handled by some
carriers, and prohibit certain kinds of freight on the return trip. The result
is excessive truck miles and unproductive consumption of motor fuel, labor
time, and other resources.
Where more than one carrier gains a certificate to provide service, competition tends to occur on the basis of service quality—frequency of departure, faster delivery, and so on—rather than through prices. As a consequence
trucks are often dispatched with smaller loads than they might otherwise
haul. Equipment and labor costs are thus spread over fewer ton-miles and
costs and prices are higher than necessary. The regulation of rates precludes
price competition, and consequently the range of price-service options
available to shippers is restricted. Those shippers who would have chosen
less frequent service if it were offered at a lower price pay more for
services they do not want. In markets where only one trucker has route authority, this process of rate setting may permit lower costs since the trucker,
exercising his monopoly control, may reduce the frequency of scheduling,
with the result that a higher proportion of trucks is dispatched fully loaded.
However, because such a trucker has no competitors, he is unlikely to lower
prices to fully reflect the lower-quality service.
A comparison of the transportation of small parcels with large or bulky
shipments illustrates the advantages of multiple price-service options. Shippers of small parcels have several options. The scheduled airlines carry small
packages as baggage at substantial prices but with a guarantee of delivery
the same day. Some air freight firms collect packages at various cities, fly
them first to a central sorting location, then on to their final destination each
evening, and provide overnight service at slightly lower prices than those
charged by the scheduled airlines. Intercity bus lines and special firms that
deliver small packages use surface transportation to furnish delivery service
at even cheaper rates. Finally, the U.S. Postal Service offers slower but
widely available parcel delivery. The advantage of having multiple options
is that shippers of small parcels may choose between various degrees of service at different prices. Although shippers of large or bulky freight have some
flexibility, many are chiefly limited to motor carriers, where the range of
price-service options is much more limited because of regulation.
The problems of excess capacity, higher prices, and too few price-service
options would be reduced if entry into the trucking industry were not
restricted. Unlike public utilities, trucking does not exhibit scale economies.
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Thus price competition is not likely to result in a single survivor—a monopolist. In trucking, fixed costs are low and except for Government restrictions
entry is relatively easy. Competition, not monopoly, would be the natural
condition in the trucking industry if it were not for Government regulation.
Recent research has demonstrated that common carrier truck regulations
cause large losses in production and efficiency. Freight rates in countries
that do not regulate motor carriers are significantly lower than rates in
countries like West Germany and the United States where regulation is
strict. Excessively high motor carrier rates cause some shippers to substitute
alternative modes of transportation, or to provide their own transportation
services. These responses to regulation reduce economic efficiency.
The motor carrier reform legislation submitted by the President to the
last Congress would have increased both price competition and entry into
the trucking industry. The legislation proposed pricing flexibility, subject
only to later ICC review, which would allow individual carriers to raise or
lower their rates as much as 15 percent annually, and it would eventually
remove the lower limit on price changes entirely (as long as the price was
not set below direct costs). The legislation also proposed eliminating the
antitrust immunity that currently protects the collusive rate setting through
rate bureaus. Barriers to entry would have been reduced by lifting the hauling restrictions on certain existing carriers and by liberalizing the criteria for
route certification. Entrants could no longer be barred simply because the
proposed service was already provided by existing carriers. This legislation
would constitute a major step in the reform of regulation inhibiting the
efficiency of the motor carrier industry.
Airlines
In the airline industry, restrictions on price competition have likewise
led to higher fares and emphasis on nonprice methods of competition.
In intrastate markets in Texas and California carriers are subject to
Federal safety regulations but are free of Federal restrictions on fares and
routes. In these markets prices have been consistently lower than prices in
federally regulated markets which have similar characteristics.
The regulated air carriers have not earned unusually high profits as a
result of regulation restricting price competition. Potential profits have been
dissipated through advertising and service competition—most visibly in the
form of in-flight stereo, free meals, and other amenities. Less visible but more
expensive forms of nonprice competition are capacity increases and scheduling additional flights. More frequent departures and a higher probability of
obtaining a seat on a preferred flight do yield benefits to consumers, but
recent studies have shown that the cost of operating the additional flights is
considerably greater than these benefits. The popularity of air charter flights
illustrates the willingness of many consumers to accept the inconvenience of
less frequent service, less flexible scheduling, and fewer amenities in order to
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purchase less expensive air travel. Increased flexibility permitting adjustments in prices to meet market demands, liberalized entry into specific air
routes, and the removal of antitrust immunity would help assure a wider
range of consumer choices for air transportation and lead to lower air fares
than would otherwise occur.
The need for reform in air transportation is compelling and is now generally acknowledged. The 94th Congress considered reform bills submitted
by the President, various members of the Congress, and the Civil Aeronautics
Board. None of the proposals recommend any change in the safety standards
enforced by the Federal Aviation Administration; they all focused on economic regulation. Each of the proposed bills would place greater reliance
upon competitive market forces. Each recognizes that increased pricing
freedom must be accompanied by a significant lowering of regulatory barriers to entry if truly competitive performance is to be assured. The current
issue appears to be not whether a change needs to be made, but rather how
far and how quickly it should proceed.
REGULATED PRICE BELOW MARKET PRICE
At a regulated price below the competitively determined market price,
consumers want to purchase more output than producers are willing to supply. The result is a shortage: more is demanded than will be supplied at the
regulated price. A shortage means that some potential customers who place a
value on the product higher than its cost of production are unable to purchase it because the low price has discouraged its manufacture.
Price ceilings also require that nonprice methods be used to decide who is
to get the limited supply that is available. Although the monetary price to
those fortunate enough to meet the nonprice criteria for purchasing a regulated commodity or service may be lower, all those who want to purchase
it, but cannot, must pay a higher price, corresponding to the price of the
best substitute product. They are forced to seek more costly substitutes to
satisfy their demand, or else to do without. In addition, because the costs
of nonprice rationing—waiting in line at a gas station, for example—are
sometimes substantial, the realized price paid by those who do meet the
criteria may be greater than the free-market price would be, even though
the monetary price is lower. As a rule, nonprice rationing methods are less
efficient and more costly than price rationing.
Natural Gas
Price controls on natural gas provide an illustration of the losses resulting
from a price fixed below the competitive market-clearing level. The Federal
Power Commission (FPC) regulates the price of gas sold to pipeline companies for resale across State boundaries. Since the regulated price is below
the price in unregulated intrastate markets, most new gas has gone to the intrastate markets. As a consequence there has been a shortage in certain areas
where gas must cross a State line to get from producer to consumer. Many
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businesses and institutions have had to substitute more expensive energy for
natural gas in the past few years; and where natural gas is critical for some
industrial uses, work stoppages and unemployment have also resulted. Few
residential customers already subscribing to gas service have encountered
problems, but some new applications for gas service have been denied. Since
1972, as an example, no new customers have been accepted by the Columbia
Gas System, which serves consumers from Virginia to Ohio and New York.
Recent forecasts indicate a growing shortage of natural gas to meet the
contract requirements of pipelines for gas deliveries to local distributors and
portend future problems even for residential customers.
The economic costs of the natural gas shortage emerge in various forms.
First, under the nonprice allocation system that has been devised by the
FPC, distribution companies are allocated gas on the basis of a set of FPCapproved priorities. This allocation system does not directly consider the
relative cost of switching to an alternative energy source or the relative
productivity of natural gas in alternative uses. The gas that is available may
therefore not be going to its most productive uses. Second, natural gas is
underutilized as an energy source in favor of more costly alternatives because
gas producers, responding to the artificially low prices, undertake less exploration and development than would occur in an unconstrained market. During
the last decade total annual additions to natural gas reserves declined
slightly, while demand was increasing steadily. Third, because intrastate sales
of gas are not controlled by the FPC, producers prefer to sell as much gas as
possible at the higher prices prevailing within the producing States. As the
controlled price of natural gas has lagged behind the rising price of alternative fuels, this problem has become more serious. About two-thirds of the
natural gas reserves committed to markets went to interstate markets
in the late 1960s, but this fraction had declined to less than 20 percent
by 1975. The unregulated price of natural gas in gas-producing States is
sometimes lower than the price of equivalent energy in nonproducing areas,
where businesses occasionally cannot obtain gas at any price. Moreover, for
some industrial processes, natural gas is less costly to use than alternative
fuel sources which could supply the equivalent energy. As a result firms may
find it advantageous to move from regions served by regulated natural gas
to regions where supplies are available. Instead of being based on true
relative locational advantages, this migration to gas-producing States is
induced because the regulated price of gas is held below the competitive level.
Last year the FPC announced a threefold increase in the regulated
price of "new gas" (gas coming from wells on which drilling commenced
after January 1, 1976). FPC efforts to raise the price ceilings can contribute
to economic growth, but any long-term solution to the natural gas shortage
necessitates legislative action to eliminate price controls. Although increased prices will undoubtedly affect residential consumers, one should
not ignore the current costs to consumers caused by regulation-induced misallocation: those which are now hidden in the prices of goods and services
152
produced with higher-cost energy sources, and those which primarily burden
residential consumers who are unable to obtain gas supplies at any price.
REGULATIONS THAT DIRECTLY AFFECT COST
A free-market economy cannot allocate resources efficiently unless prices
reflect all of the costs of producing and consuming each good and service,
and unless buyers and sellers have adequate information on which to base
their market decisions. If the external costs that spill over to outsiders are
ignored, the price of a good or service will be too low and consumers will
buy too much. The output that is purchased will entail a greater social cost
of production than the benefits that its consumers will derive. The effect
would be similar to a direct subsidy of certain economic activities: economic
decisions would be distorted toward the production and consumption of the
subsidized product. In addition, if producers or consumers have inadequate
information, market decisions will not necessarily reflect relative costs. The
more prominent cases of Government efforts to correct for spillover costs
and inadequate market information in recent years concern health, safety,
and the environment.
Unfortunately, in many instances it is extraordinarily difficult to estimate
the external cost of private decisions or the public benefits which would stem
from policies to alter those decisions. Errors in estimating either the benefits
or the costs can result in programs which are socially more costly than the
externalities they are attempting to correct. The inadequacy of information
frequently means that these decisions must be made in the presence of
considerable uncertainty.
Several problems hinder the development of efficient regulations that will
correct for external costs and inadequate information. The appropriate degree of pollution removal or reduction of risks to health and safety must be
determined. Eliminating absolutely all pollution or risk to health and safety
would be so expensive that it would preclude other national goals. By analogy, in their private lives individuals rarely try to lessen the risk of incurring
injury or contracting disease to the technologically feasible minimum. People
recognize that the incremental benefits of health and safety are limited and
must be balanced against having more resources available to satisfy other
needs. In those instances where the private sector is unable to generate a
socially efficient amount of information, there is scope for Government research and dissemination of data. Finally, whatever is chosen as the target
of environmental cleanup or health and safety improvement should be
achieved at the minimum sacrifice of other goods and services.
Electric Power
Regulations have been imposed on the generation of electric power in an
effort to internalize the spillover costs associated with air and water pollution. Although it is difficult to measure the benefits, these goals have clearly
been expensive to achieve. Investments to meet air and water standards are
estimated to add about 10 percent to the total capital expenditures in electric-
153
ity generation. If the regulations are set properly, they should improve the
efficient operation of our economy. The methods adopted for this task, however, have not always been consistent with another objective of cost internalization—achieving it with maximum efficiency.
For example, because certain types of power plants are required to prepare environmental impact statements and have been hampered by frequent legal disputes, considerable delay has occurred in the construction of
some electric generation plants. The spasmodic and still evolving development of environmental regulatory policy can create an atmosphere of uncertainty and increase the risk attached to new construction projects for generating power. The uncertainty of regulatory policy can have particularly severe effects on the building of power plants because they involve long commitments and have little flexibility once they are constructed. Hence the caution that utility companies have shown in planning the expansion of future
capacity is not surprising. However, the delay in getting power plants under
way may cause a switch to alternative types of generating plants which,
though less efficient, can be constructed more quickly as demand pressures
intensify. The absence of confidence in the stability of environmental regulations may thus lead to a less efficient and more costly mix of generation
capacity in the future.
Occupational Health and Safety
Government efforts to improve health and safety conditions in and around
the workplace provide another example of the difficulty of using direct
regulatory efforts to achieve social goals. The Federal Occupational Safety
and Health Act of 1970 mandates the Federal Occupational Safety and
Health Administration (OSHA) to assure "so far as possible every working man and woman in the Nation safe and healthful working conditions."
Under the act each employer is required to comply with the standards promulgated by OSHA. These standards are intended to furnish for each
employee a job which is "free from recognized hazards that are causing
or likely to cause death or serious physical harm."
Without OSHA's standards employers would remove work-related hazards
whenever the benefits to them of doing so would exceed the incremental
costs. If employers confronted the full costs of illness and injury from poor
working conditions by having to pay higher wages, or incurred other costs
that varied directly with the dangers to health and safety in workplaces,
they would tend to operate at an efficient level of occupationally related
health and safety. For a number of reasons, however, employers do not
actually face the full costs of injuries and illnesses, and some of these costs
are borne by others than the injured or ill employees.
The workers' compensation system does not fully reimburse workers and
the rest of society for the loss in earnings and the additional medical and
rehabilitation expenses that arise from job-related injuries and diseases. Two
reasons for this failure are the extraordinary difficulty of estimating the private and the social cost of work-related injuries and diseases and the problem
154
of establishing efficient methods of internalizing these costs. The society at
large pays part of the costs of occupational illness and injury through other
transfer programs—for example, social security disability, medicaid, and
vocational rehabilitation. In addition, the workers' compensation insurance
premium paid by the individual employer does not vary in direct proportion
to the benefits paid out to its injured workers. Employers are not given the incentive to respond optimally even to those losses for which the system provides
direct compensation. Finally, wage differences may not fully adjust to otherwise uncompensated hazards present in the workplace if workers are not
well informed of the actual risks that they face, or do not have enough mobility to avoid risks for which they do not feel fully compensated.
A system of health and safety standards is one mechanism for further
internalizing accident and illness costs borne by parties other than employers. To implement an efficient system of health and safety standards,
the Government needs detailed knowledge about the many different causes
of accidents and disease and the relative costs in different firms of alternative methods that may reduce them. There are important differences in the
risk of injury and damage to health among occupations and employers—
and perhaps also among employees. For administrative and legal reasons,
however, it is difficult to impose different standards on different employers.
Because of these problems any system of health and safety standards will
inevitably be arbitrary and inefficient to some extent. OSHA has usually
mandated "engineering controls" for reducing workers' exposure to hazards,
rather than allowing firms and employees to determine for themselves the
least-cost means of achieving health and safety goals. Given the diversity
among firms, the application of engineering standards requires more information, is less likely to result in uniform treatment, and thereby entails
higher costs than performance standards or "injury fees" for the same
reduction in injuries.
In situations where sufficient information exists to permit a reasonably
precise estimate of the social loss from work-related injuries and diseases,
health and safety objectives can more efficiently be achieved through the
use of performance standards or injury fees, rather than by mandating
particular means of reducing injuries. Performance standards levy charges
against firms according to the incidence and severity of all job-related
injuries, or to increases in injuries above some predetermined level. If
information permits, the fees could be tailored to the frequency and seriousness of accident or illness and might be incorporated in a workers' compensation system. These charges should be large enough to fully compensate
those directly harmed and to cover the external costs as well. Individual
firms would be left to seek least-cost methods of reducing accidents and
disease, and they would adopt them to the point where the costs of reducing
accidents and illness exceeded the charges levied on the occurrence of
accident and illness.
The present state of knowledge is not sufficient to extend this approach
to all problems in relation to health and safety. It is frequently difficult to
155
identify the causes of a disease, and the link between health and working
conditions is difficult to establish. Many occupationally related diseases
appear long after exposure to their causes. The charges might follow so
long after the hazardous conditions had caused harm that they would not
play much part in decisions affecting the health of employees. The assignment of liability is further complicated because firms may disappear as time
passes or avoid responsibility in other ways.
Information problems and the long latency of many occupational diseases
make it very difficult to estimate costs and therefore the level of exposure
that society is willing to tolerate. In addition, even if these problems were
resolved it would be hard to embody the results in an operational system
of levying the appropriate charges and internalizing the costs. These same
difficulties confront the engineering standards approach. But for occupational health objectives there is often a correct preference for standards that
prohibit or severely limit exposure, rather than for an injury fee approach
that might allow substantial exposure. In the presence of considerable
uncertainty, the desire to err in the direction of too much health and safety
may require a standards approach. Where the relevant information is available and the risks involved are not excessive, the use of performance standards
may be a more effective means of achieving desired levels of safety and health.
Because of the substantial externalities that may be involved, and the
difficulty of generating private sector financing of basic research, an important role for Government lies in financing research relating to occupational
disease.
IMPLEMENTING REGULATORY REFORM
In spite of the widespread recognition that reform of certain Government
regulatory policies could yield substantial economic benefits, there remain
major obstacles to achieving reform. Compared to those who would benefit by
reform, those who would be hurt are fewer; but they are also likely to be more
aware of the losses that they would incur. Many potential losers are well
organized and have an effective system for communicating their views to
policy makers and the public. On the other hand, the beneficiaries of
regulatory reform (especially the ultimate consumers of products of the
regulated industries) are numerous, and the benefit per individual is usually
small. Beneficiaries of reform are less likely to understand their stake in
regulatory reform, are not usually organized, and generally have little
success in effectively communicating their views to decision makers and
the public.
Those in a position to lose from regulatory reform are not always the
ones who have gained from prior restrictive economic regulations. In a wellfunctioning market, the sales price of capital assets reflects the future earnings stream they are expected to generate, appropriately discounted to
account for delay in the receipt of those earnings. The value of regulated industries' assets are likely to be elevated sufficiently to reflect the expectation
that regulation, and its associated benefits to existing firms, will continue
156
in the future. Consequently current stockholders ot such industries who
purchased shares after regulation was introduced are unlikely to earn more
than a normal return on their investment. When regulatory reform threatens
to alter the economic environment on which they based their future profit
expectations, they will naturally resist.
In many instances income distribution considerations are cited in support
of holding regulated prices below free-market levels. Allowing prices to rise,
however, may not affect low-income consumers more adversely than higherincome consumers. There are substantial differences in consumption patterns
among households at the same income levels, and the effects of deregulation
on family well-being are likely to differ greatly. For these reasons it is
preferable to use the regular tax and income transfer systems, rather than
price regulations, to achieve society's income distribution objectives.
Another problem facing regulatory reform is the difficulty often encountered in bringing regulatory reform initiatives before the full Congress. Individual congressional committees, responding to the pressures described above,
are sometimes reluctant to consider significant reform bills. Thus, although
there is a growing consensus that regulatory reform is needed, the process
of achieving it may be hampered by fragmentation of individual proposals.
It may therefore be desirable for policy makers to address a number of regulatory reform issues simultaneously. Such an approach was contained in the
proposed Agenda for Regulatory Reform submitted by the President to the
94th Congress. This proposal would have required the Administration to
introduce legislation to effect major regulatory reforms over a 4-year
period. Another provision would have ensured congressional action by placing the Administration's proposals before the full Congress after a specified
time if similar proposals were not reported out of committee.
SUMMARY
Major policy initiatives are required to address the kinds of regulatory
problems described above. Two types of efforts are needed. First, the statutes
under which some agencies operate need to be modified. This approach is
particularly applicable to the independent regulatory agencies which have
jurisdiction over specific industries. The principal goal should be to eliminate regulations that inhibit competition, prevent innovation, and otherwise distort the allocation of resources. Second, the quality of agency
decisions under the existing regulatory statutes needs to be improved. This
approach appears particularly suited to those regulatory agencies which deal
with matters of health, safety, and the environment.
Several specific reforms deserve consideration in 1977. First, reform that
increases rate flexibility and eases entry restrictions in the airline and trucking industries would reduce the costs imposed by prices set in excess of competitively determined free-market levels. The reduction in the quantity of
resources absorbed unproductively would increase the ability of the economy
to produce more goods and services of all types, including those of the regulated sector.
157
224-250 O - 77 - 11
Second, the economic costs generated by price ceilings could be reduced
by the elimination of many price restrictions. Decontrol of natural gas
prices is the most urgent need. This would increase economic efficiency and,
by increasing supply, move us toward greater energy self-sufficiency.
Third, regulations related to health, safety, and the environment need
to be carefully evaluated. These regulations are aimed at some important
though elusive social goals. But some generate hidden economic costs that
are being ignored, and some may not be effective in achieving the goals of
their enabling legislation. A sound comparison of the realized benefits against
the total costs generated by each of these regulations is necessary to ensure
that the regulatory goals chosen by society are desirable and are achieved
at the least possible cost.
AGRICULTURAL POLICY
Farm programs over the years have reduced real GNP by imposing a
variety of restrictions on pricing, production, land use, and trade in farm
commodities. Some of the most important of these restrictions have been
eliminated in recent years, but others remain. In 1977 major pieces of
farm legislation will expire, and there will be pressures to return to past
approaches which have caused an inefficient allocation of the Nation's
agricultural resources. This section reviews the progress made in farm policy,
the threat to that progress, and the direction we believe that future farm
policy should take.
THE MOVEMENT TO MARKET-ORIENTED FARM PROGRAMS
Beginning in the 1930s the pursuit of income protection for farmers led
to programs which have raised average farm prices above competitive
market-clearing levels. These programs have produced the general consequences of price-increasing regulation discussed in the preceding section:
the regulated price induces more output and less consumption than would
otherwise have occurred, and the excess production and capacity generate
pressures to restrict output.
For grains and some other commodities the regulated price has been
supported by Government acquisition of commodities. The existence of excess capacity is then revealed in the accumulation of stocks of commodities
held by the Government. To prevent stock accumulation, schemes have been
tried under which a relatively high price was paid for commodities used
domestically, while exports were made at a lower world price. If sufficient
quantities could not be exported at world market prices, export subsidies
have been paid—notoriously in the case of wheat, when subsidies were paid
during the period of the Soviet purchases of 1972. In addition, subsidized
exports have been made through the Food for Peace program and through
subsidized credit to foreign purchasers. Domestic food consumption has been
subsidized through the school lunch, food stamp, and other special programs.
Because no demand-increasing approach has been able for long to equate
158
demand and supply at support prices, there was continued resort to production control schemes. Measures taken to restrict production have included: acreage allotments and marketing quotas for the major crops; Government purchase and slaughter of sows and baby pigs in the 1930s; payments to farmers to turn cropland to less productive use under cropland
adjustment, conservation reserve and cropland conversion programs; and,
more recently, requirements to "set aside" cropland acres as a prerequisite
to participation in price support programs, supplemented by diversion payments to induce further reduction in crop acreage.
The typical result of these programs was a reduction in food output, or
at least in domestic consumption, and inefficiency in the allocation of
resources. Establishment of domestic prices above world market levels required measures inconsistent with our overall trade liberalization objectives. Food prices were more stable, but at the cost of higher average prices
than if prices had been unregulated. Apart from efficiency losses, costs to
the nonfarm public included many billions of dollars in direct payments
to farmers. In 1968-70, annual budget outlays for farm programs averaged
$5 billion, and Government payments amounted to over one-fourth of total
net farm income. Over the years the program benefits were largely
capitalized into land values, so that they accrued primarily to owners of
farm real estate.
Reductions in some crop support prices in the mid-1960s began a reorientation of farm policy toward unregulated market prices, and since 1972
increases in world market demand have permitted an almost complete abandonment of restrictive features in U.S. farm programs for major crops. Reforms which only a few years ago were considered a practical impossibility
have now been put into effect. At the same time, extreme price increases
following the sharp reduction in U.S. and world carryover stocks of grains
in 1972—73 have renewed interest in measures to stabilize prices. This concern for stability, together with a desire for farm income protection, could
open the door to a return to past restrictive approaches.
THE THREAT TO MARKET-ORIENTED POLICIES
Farm programs differ from other regulatory activities in that regulated
prices and means of controlling production are more often specified in
legislation. Consequently the features of farm programs tend to be a more
direct political issue, and more subject to sudden change in approach, than is
the case in the regulation of most other industries. Farm policy will be considered by the Congress in 1977 because much of the legislation authorizing
current programs will expire, including the Agriculture and Consumer
Protection Act of 1973, which covers the major crops. The machinery set
up under the 1973 act allows the separation of farm income support from price stabilization measures to a greater degree than was
possible under preceding programs. Farm income support can be provided
by means of deficiency payments, which are based on the difference between
159
a legislated target price and the market price or support price received.
Farmers in the aggregate cannot increase their payments by expanding output, since payments are limited to a given base production. Thus although
this approach could be very costly to taxpayers if the target prices were high
enough, it can provide farm income support without Government stock
buildup and without restricting food supplies. To date, the strength of world
markets has kept market prices above target prices, and therefore no deficiency payments have been made, although payments for rice are a certainty
in fiscal 1977.
Recent weakness in the price of grains, especially wheat and rice, has rekindled farmers' interest in price support programs. The threat of declining
farm incomes, coupled with appeals for policies to promote food
price stability by means of grain reserves, could lead to higher support prices
and hence a turn away from full-production, market-oriented policies.
The United States has proposed an international system of food grain
reserves of limited size which would not be used to defend any particular
price band. An alternative, but one which would also involve important
issues in international policy coordination, could be a unilateral domestic
buffer stock of grain, which would be built up when prices are low and sold
when prices are high. This idea fits in naturally with Government storage
of grain acquired to support prices. The main new elements would have
to do with whether the stocks would be open-ended in size or would specify
maximum quantities to be acquired, and the rules for placing stocks on the
market to moderate price increases.
While a publicly owned buffer stock can reduce price fluctuations, it
involves substantial costs and risks. The principal risk is that support
prices and resale prices as well as quantities to be acquired and released
will tend to be determined by political criteria. The result, if past history
is a guide, will be to stabilize prices in a range which on the average is above
competitive market-clearing levels. Such regulated prices would probably
return us finally to the acreage restrictions, production controls, and export
subsidies which have characterized past farm programs.
THE FUTURE OF MARKET-ORIENTED POLICIES
Farm policy should not only resist bringing back the restrictive grain and
cotton programs of the past, but should also move toward market orientation
for the commodities where price-increasing measures remain effective. Commodities covered by effective price supports include milk, tobacco, and
peanuts. Price supports for milk used to manufacture other dairy products
are currently resulting in substantial Government purchases of powdered
milk, cheese, and butter, and they require import controls to keep out foreign
dairy products attracted by the high prices. The existing programs for tobacco and peanuts rely on economically objectionable production controls.
Rights to grow and market these crops have become valuable assets. Even
160
with stringent controls on peanut acreage and tobacco production, the support prices are high enough to result in Government stock accumulation.
Milk and some fruits, vegetables, and nuts are marketed by large cooperatives under the auspices of Federal marketing agreements and orders. Apart
from those for milk, there were 47 orders and agreements in fiscal 1976 covering farm products valued at $3.7 billion. Regulation in these cases does
not establish prices by legislative or executive action but grants powers to
producer groups sufficient to influence prices paid to them. To attain "orderly marketing," flows of products to market during peak production periods
are cut back or diverted from fresh to processing uses or to export markets.
The result is a higher price for fresh products for domestic uses. The quantitatively most important case is the higher price established for milk sold in
fluid form compared to milk for other dairy products. Size and grade standards have in some instances been used to reduce flows of imports, notably of
winter tomatoes from Mexico. While most producers' associations have found
it difficult to control total supplies, they have in some cases—notably for hops
and celery—been able to do so and thereby to raise prices.
Farm policy, besides avoiding production controls under commodity programs, should actively promote efficient food production in other ways.
Perhaps the most important means is basic agricultural research, the benefits
of which are difficult for private business to capture. Another is to make sure
that efficient food production gets appropriately weighted against other social
goals, for example by insisting that more stringent environmental or safety
regulations do not impose greater additional costs than their expected additional benefits.
The goal of eliminating excessive price instability can be served by more
promising means than direct market intervention. Provision of timely and
accurate production and market information is a valuable service which
may be inadequately supplied by the private sector because of the difficulty
of capturing the benefits. By fostering efficient futures markets, which assist
commodity producers and users in risk management and which translate
the market information that exists into price signals easily interpreted by and
readily available to market participants, Government may play a useful role.
Domestic price stability would be furthered by reducing protectionism and
increasing market orientation abroad. Adjustment to world supply and demand fluctuations would then not occur as disproportionately as it does
now in the United States. Freer trade in agricultural products is a chief
U.S. goal in the Multilateral Trade Negotiations currently under way, which
suggests that the United States should resist undermining its position by
protectionist measures to favor our own domestic producers. Bilateral negotiations may also prove useful. The 5-year grain sales agreement with the Soviet
Union, which covers shipments of wheat and corn after October 1, 1976,
may reduce the year-to-year fluctuations in Soviet grain imports and is a
step toward making the grain export policy of the United States steadier
and more predictable. In all of these respects agricultural policy can promote
161
price stability without the risks inherent in direct intervention in commodity
markets.
Farm programs also influence the efficiency of resource utilization in agriculture by helping farmers bear the risks of crop failure caused by bad
weather, pests, or disease. For most commodities, production risk is paid for
by consumers in the higher prices needed to induce people to undertake risky
activities. For grains and cotton, current legislation provides free insurance
through disaster payments when bad weather prevents planting or when a
harvest of two-thirds or less of normal production on allotment acreage is
realized. These payments totaled about $840 million in 1974 and 1975 together. The economic arguments favor replacement of the disaster payment
scheme by an expanded system of nonsubsidized general crop insurance.
Subsidized crop failure encourages farmers to use marginal land too intensively, contrary to the conservation goals of agricultural policy, and could
reduce the output of our agricultural resources in the future.
Farm programs offer both opportunities and pitfalls in the effort to make
the most of our agricultural resources and thus increase real GNP. Opportunities offered by the commodity price boom of recent years were used to
establish a potentially valuable legacy of a full-production policy for agriculture. The challenge is to use whatever new opportunities present themselves to eliminate remaining restrictive measures. Most important for the
immediate future is not to let the pursuit of farm income support or price
stabilization lead us back into past restrictive approaches.
TAX POLICIES FOR CAPITAL FORMATION
In Chapter 1 it was noted that a higher rate of investment is desirable for
two reasons: to help sustain the expansion in the short run and to provide
the new capacity required in the longer run to ensure rising real incomes,
productive employment opportunities for a growing labor force, greater
self-sufficiency in energy, and a cleaner environment. Chapter 1 also noted
that one of the important causes of the recent productivity slowdown has
been the slower growth in the stock of capital per worker over the last
decade. The conclusion was therefore reached that an important objective of economic policy in the years ahead should be to ensure adequate
levels of new investment. In the near term, stable economic growth is essential for a higher rate of capital formation. But policies may also have to
be devised to counteract the forces, identified in Chapter 1, which may
have lowered the effective rates of return to saving and investment and
interfered with an efficient allocation of capital resources. For example, the
President's proposed reductions in personal and corporate income taxes can
be justified in part as an offset to the bias against private investment created
by our tax structure, under which the real tax burdens for business as well as
individuals rise in periods of high inflation. There are a number of other
162
aspects of the tax system which impinge on investment and saving. This section discusses some of these features and suggests some possible changes that
may be useful to stimulate additional capital formation and promote a
more efficient use of available capital resources.
INVESTMENT TAX CREDIT
The investment tax credit (ITC) was first enacted in 1962 as part of the
Kennedy Administration's program to stimulate investment by increasing
the profitability of new equipment. Since then, the ITC has been revised
by a series of legislative actions and successively suspended, repealed, and
reenacted. The ITC was permanently reinstated at a maximum 7 percent
rate (4 percent for utilities) by the Revenue Act of 1971. The Tax Reduction Act of 1975 temporarily increased the maximum rate to 10 percent for
all businesses, including utilities, during 1975 and 1976. The Tax Reform
Act of 1976 subsequently extended the 10 percent rate through 1980, and
the President has proposed that it be made permanent.
At present the law provides for a credit against current tax liabilities of
corporate and noncorporate businesses, equal to 10 percent of the value of
qualified investments. Qualified investments are generally new depreciable
assets used in production, excluding structures, with service lives of 3 years or
more. The credit is applied on a sliding scale in such a way that one-third of
the full credit is allowed for assets with service lives of 3 or 4 years, twothirds for assets with service lives of 5 or 6 years, and the full credit for
those assets with service lives of 7 years or more. The ITC rates thus range
from 3/3 to 10 percent, depending on the life of the asset. The credit
claimed in any year cannot exceed a company's total tax liability for the
year, and the maximum credit that generally may be taken is $25,000, plus
50 percent of the tax liability in excess of $25,000. Credits not usable in the
current year because of this limitation may be deducted against tax liabilities
3 years back and 7 years forward on a first-in, first-out basis, that is,
the oldest credits are used first. Under current law, the basis for calculating
depreciation allowances on new equipment is not reduced by the amount of
the credit. A provision requiring a basis adjustment was contained in the
original 1962 legislation, but it was subsequently repealed by the Revenue
Act of 1964.
The credit was restricted to equipment purchases because of the favorable tax treatment already accorded to structures under the rules
for accelerated depreciation and for expensing of interest and taxes incurred
during the construction period. It was also felt that the most rapid gains in
productivity could be achieved by encouraging investment in new equipment. In addition, there was a fear that a credit on structures might become
a tax loophole for real estate speculation and the purchase of private
residences.
There is no general consensus about the precise impact of the ITC on
investment spending. Nevertheless it does appear that past increases in
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the credit have led to significantly higher expenditures for new equipment. Moreover, compared with the other major investment incentives—
changes in accelerated depreciation and reductions in the corporate income tax rate—the ITC apparently yields larger and more rapid increases
in investment per dollar of reduced tax liability. Consequently the issue with
respect to the ITC concerns not so much its overall effectiveness as the
distortions it may create in choices among different types of capital assets.
These distortions derive from three specific aspects of the ITG as it now
operates.
First, because the amount of credit that may be taken is generally limited
by the investor's total tax liability, firms with highly variable profit rates may
have difficulty making full use of the ITG in any given year. It is estimated
that about $1^2 billion in additional tax credits would have been claimed
in 1975 if this limitation had not existed, and this represents nearly 20 percent of the total amount of investment tax credit claimed in that year.
The present carry-back and carry-forward provisions do permit eventual
recovery of most credits. However, since profits and business tax liabilities
generally fall during recessions, the credits may not be available to firms in
cyclically sensitive industries at the very time when the need for additional
cash flow is greatest. The same problem may affect rapidly growing firms,
which have large investment needs relative to their profits and tax liabilities. Making the ITC fully refundable in the year in which assets are purchased would eliminate that constraint. This change would tend to minimize the adverse effects of the business cycle on investment and provide an
additional incentive to the most dynamic sectors of the economy.
Second, the ITG discriminates against very short-lived assets as well
as assets with service lives of more than 7 years. There may be some justification for denying the ITG to inventory assets because they are not used in
production. Moreover, administration of the ITG for inventories tends to
be complicated by the fact that they are often sold before the end of their
service lives, thus necessitating recapture of credits received. There are
nevertheless many other types of productive short-lived capital assets which
on the grounds of efficiency should benefit from the credit. In addition,
the flat 10 percent rate applied to all assets with useful lives of 7 years or
more results in a progressively smaller increase in the rate of return on
longer-lived capital assets (Table 35). If the credit is not to impart such a
bias against long-term investments, the implied rate of return must be increased proportionately for all assets. To achieve this result, a variable rate
ITC is required, with a larger credit applied to longer-lived assets. A restructuring and extension of the present sliding scale would therefore neutralize
the effect of the ITC on the choice among assets with different service lives.
Such a change would particularly benefit many primary processing industries which are critical to the economy's long-term growth potential and
whose capital structure is heavily weighted toward long-lived assets.
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TABLE 35—Change in aUer-tax internal rate of return under present 10 percent
investment tax credit, all businesses
Investment
tax
credit
(percent)
Life of asset
(years)
1
.
_..
.
0.0
.0
3.3
3.3
6.7
.
_ _
5
6
8
9
10
15
20.
.
.
2.42
3.30
2.99
2.73
2.52
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
_
0.00
.00
1.92
1.57
2.77
6.7
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
2
3__
4
25.
30
Change in
after-tax
internal
rate of
return
(percentage
points) i
1.91
1.60
1.42
1.31
1
Assumes that the net income stream from the investment is constant, that the after-tax internal rate of
return before the investment tax credit equals 10 percent, and that the credit does not affect future costs or
revenues.
Source: Council of Economic Advisers.
Finally, the current failure to exclude the amount of the tax credit from
the depreciable base of an asset means that a write-off is allowed for an expense not incurred. This raises the effective rate of the ITC above the statutory level, the increase being larger for shorter-lived assets, thus accentuating
the bias against longer-term investments. It would be preferable to make
the appropriate adjustment to the depreciable tax base and change the size
of the credit itself to achieve the desired rate of profitability on assets with
different useful lives.
A redesign of the ITC to eliminate the distortions noted above would make
it a more neutral and effective incentive for new investment and should be
considered if the need arises in the future for additional fiscal stimulus for
investment. Making the ITC permanent would also be desirable to remove
the uncertainty about its future level and create a more stable basis for business investment planning. Frequent changes in the ITC should be avoided
because they may actually have a destabilizing effect on aggregate demand.
The primary effect of temporary revisions in the credit may simply be to
change the timing of investment spending. For example, a 1-year increase
in the credit may boost the level of investment in the short run, but then
lead to a correspondingly lower level in the following year. Furthermore
the ITC may have perverse effects on investment if firms begin to anticipate
changes in the rate. If increases in the credit are regularly expected as the
economy is headed out of recessions, the downturn may be prolonged if
firms hold back on new investment until the credit is raised. For these
reasons, then, the use of the ITC to stabilize aggregate demand in the short
run should be kept to a minimum.
165
TAX INTEGRATION
Integration of the corporate and personal income taxes to eliminate the
double tax on corporate income is another proposal that has been recommended as a means of improving the allocation of capital resources and
raising the aggregate rate of investment. Under current law the first $25,000
of corporate income is taxed at a rate of 20 percent, the second $25,000 at
22 percent, and all income above $50,000 at 48 percent (22 percent plus a
surtax of 26 percent) .* In addition shareholders must pay individual income
taxes on distributed profits (dividends) ; and retained earnings are taxed
again, though at lower effective rates, when capital gains are realized from
the sale of stock. Thus, while income from noncorporate businesses and
wages and salaries is taxed only once, corporate income is subject to a double
tax. This extra tax creates a number of distortions affecting the financial
structure of corporations and the overall allocation of capital resources,
which impair economic stability and reduce total output.
First, because after-tax rates of return on capital tend to be equalized by
market forces, the higher rate of tax on corporate income implies that an
extra dollar invested in the corporate sector must yield a higher before-tax
rate of return than an extra dollar invested in the noncorporate sector. The
double tax therefore discourages capital resources from flowing into higheryielding projects in the corporate sector, the result being a net loss in output.
Second, since retained earnings are generally translated into capital gains
in the form of higher stock prices, and these gains are taxed at preferential
rates, the tax burden on distributed profits is relatively larger than that
on undistributed profits. Corporations thus have an incentive to reduce
dividends and increase retained earnings. This phenomenon may produce
a misallocation of capital within the corporate sector as investment is encouraged in older established firms with a high level of retained earnings
and discouraged in newer firms, which usually rely more heavily on capital
markets to raise funds. Moreover certain investment projects may be undertaken with internally generated funds, despite the fact that they might not
be worthwhile if financed with capital from external sources. Third, the
combination of high inflation and the tax-deductibility of interest payments has encouraged many corporations to raise debt-equity ratios to
levels where the risk of bankruptcy may have risen substantially. Such firms
are thereby made more vulnerable to business cycle developments and may
experience increasing difficulty in raising funds in capital markets. Finally,
the increase in the tax burden resulting from the double tax is relatively
greater for lower-income stockholders.
It is also sometimes claimed that the double taxation of corporate income
reduces the national rate of saving and that integration would be desirable
to increase capital formation. Taken by itself, integration would lower taxes
*The Tax Reform Act of 1976 extended these brackets and rates only through the
end of 1977. The President has proposed that the first two brackets and rates be
made permanent, and that the surtax be permanently lowered to 24 percent.
The latter change would yield a combined rate of 46 percent on corporate income
over $50,000.
166
and raise the return to capital income, which could be expected to result
in higher saving as well as consumption. However, if integration were accompanied by an increase in other taxes, leaving total revenue unchanged,
the effect on saving would be ambiguous. Saving would rise only to the
extent that a net increase in the rate of return remained after the offsetting
tax changes (and saving responded positively to such an increase) or income
was redistributed to individuals with above-average propensities to save.
Since the response of saving to changes in the rate of return is uncertain in any case, and it is unlikely that the offsetting tax increases would
produce a significant change in the after-tax distribution of income, it
is probable that the effect of revenue-neutral integration on aggregate saving
would be minimal. The major benefits of integration thus stem from the
improved allocation of capital resources and the more equitable distribution of tax burdens that it would bring about—not from its presumed effects
on total saving.
Full integration in its purest form would eliminate the corporate income
tax entirely and allocate income to stockholders as if they were general
partners in a small business. There may be certain administrative problems,
however, which would make this partnership approach difficult to implement in the case of widely held corporations. Moreover, severe cash flow
problems could be created for shareholders with high marginal tax rates if
their tax liabilities significantly exceeded the dividends paid out.
A more modest scheme of partially integrating the personal and corporate
income taxes would remove only the double tax on dividends, either by
allowing corporations to deduct their dividend payments in calculating
income for tax purposes, or by treating the corporate tax on dividends as
withholding for the shareholders. Under either of these methods of partial
integration, the bias toward reliance on retained earnings in corporate financing decsions would be reduced. The Administraton's integration proposal
combines both approaches. A portion of dividends paid would be treated as
a cost of doing business and therefore would be deductible from a corporation's gross income. The remaining amount of dividends would be subject
to the ordinary corporate income tax, but the tax paid would be imputed to
shareholders and treated as withholding in the calculation of their individual
income taxes. The shareholders would then be required to raise their
dividend income by the amount of tax imputed to them and withheld by the
corporation, calculate their individual income tax on this adjusted basis,
and credit the amount withheld against their tax liability. If there were no
offsetting increase in taxes, this integration procedure could be expected to
raise the after-tax incomes of both corporations and their shareholders,
assuming no change in dividend payout rates.
Full integration of corporate and personal income taxes would completely
eliminate the distortions in resource allocation mentioned earlier. Partial
integration, affecting dividends only, would not be completely neutral because
it would not change the present tax treatment of retained corporate income.
167
Nevertheless, if the difficulties in implementing full integration should prove
insurmountable, partial integration may be a possible second-best solution.
Neither plan by itself, however, should be expected to result in a noticeable
change in the saving rate.
POLICIES TO STIMULATE SAVING
To help meet the economy's need for more capital, the most pressing
goal of policy should be to strengthen the long-term incentives for investment. However, if the share of GNP devoted to investment is to rise over the
next several years, a comparable flow of savings must also be forthcoming.
Otherwise there may be a significant rise in the rate of interest, which could
limit the amount of new capital formation. Although the present supply of
savings is sufficient in view of the current level of economic activity, it may
be necessary to stimulate more saving as we approach full employment
toward the end of the decade. If this need does arise, the additional saving
could come either from the public sector in the form of larger budget surpluses (or lower deficits), or from higher personal and business saving. In
Chapter 1 it was noted that in order to release the resources necessary for
investment it would be desirable in the longer run to move toward a macroeconomic policy mix which generates a higher level of public saving. In the
private sector, consideration should be given to changing those features of
our present tax system that may discourage saving. Recent discussions have
suggested that the personal saving rate might be raised by restructuring the
social security system or by substituting a consumption tax for the personal
income tax. There may of course be other reasons for reforming both taxes,
but the discussion here will focus only on the impact they may have on personal saving.
Most individuals finance their retirement with the returns from savings
accumulated during their working years, intrafamily transfers, and social
security benefits. Social security has become increasingly important in people's retirement planning because of liberal increases in benefits and wider
coverage. The question therefore arises whether this development may
have led to a decline in private saving. If it has, the national rate of saving
would be correspondingly lower, since the social security system is financed
on a pay-as-you-go basis; that is, benefit payments are financed by contributions from the current work force rather than through a trust fund reserve
accumulated over time.
The social security system may affect personal saving in several ways,
some of which tend to raise the level, while others tend to lower it. The prospect of retirement benefits financed by younger generations in effect raises the
current working population's future endowment of wealth and encourages a
reduction in their saving. To the extent that social security benefits are expected to yield significantly higher returns to individuals than are available
in private capital markets, the incentive to save is further reduced during the working years. On the other hand, by providing retirement in-
168
come, social security encourages people to shorten their working lives. Since
social security retirement benefits generally become available only at the age
of 62, individuals will therefore tend to save more over a shorter working life
in order to lengthen the period of retirement. Furthermore, because income
from assets, unlike labor income, does not reduce social security benefits, the
desire to maintain a high rate of consumption after retirement may encourage more saving. Finally, to some extent social security may simply replace
intergenerational transfers within familes, and hence have no net impact on
national saving.
Whether the net effect of these factors influencing personal saving is positive or negative is an empirical question. Some recent econometric studies
have suggested that the social security system on balance may have reduced
personal saving. The evidence is inconclusive, however, about the exact magnitude of this effect, and further research is clearly necessary before a definitive answer can be reached. Nevertheless it would be useful to begin considering possible ways of altering the social security system to mitigate any adverse effects it may have on saving. Insofar as such a reform would involve
more complete funding of current and future social security benefits, a large
Federal budget surplus might result. Of course it would be necessary to ensure that the implicitly more restrictive fiscal policy would be consistent with
the overall objectives of demand management.
An alternative proposal designed in part to encourage saving would be
to replace the personal income tax with a tax on consumption. It is
well known that both taxes cause a loss in efficiency by distorting individual choices between market and nonmarket activities. An income tax,
however, generates an additional distortion between consumption and saving
by first reducing after-tax income available for all purposes, and then lowering the interest earned on savings. An income tax therefore interferes with
the choice between present and future consumption by causing a divergence
between the before- and after-tax rates of return on capital investments.
This distortion could be removed either by making capital income deductible
under the income tax, or by replacing the latter with a tax on consumption.
A consumption tax, by deferring the tax payment until consumption
occurs, is neutral with respect to the choice regarding consumption in
different periods. Such a tax would therefore raise the yield from postponing consumption and remove the existing disincentive to saving. As in the
case of tax integration, whether a consumption tax would in fact lead to a
net increase in aggregate saving depends on the relative magnitudes of its income, substitution, and asset value effects. The available empirical evidence
suggests that there is considerable uncertainty regarding both the magnitude
and the direction of the effect of interest rate changes on saving. Therefore,
if one purpose of a consumption tax is to stimulate saving, further examination of how changes in the rate of return affect saving-consumption decisions
is clearly necessary. Nevertheless a consumption tax merits study not only as
a possible mechanism to raise personal saving, but also in connection with
basic tax reform as an alternative to a broader-based and simplified income
tax.
169
Appendix A
REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1976
171
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,
Washington, D.C., December 30,1976.
The
PRESIDENT:
SIR : The Council of Economic Advisers submits this report on its activities
during the calendar year 1976 in accordance with the requirements of the
Congress, as set forth in section 4(d) of the Employment Act of 1946.
Respectfully,
ALAN GREEN SPAN. Chairman.
BURTON G.
173
224-250 O - 77 - 12
MALKIEL.
Report to the President on the Activities of the
Council of Economic Advisers During 1976
The Council of Economic Advisers was created by the Employment Act
of 1946 to provide economic analysis and advice to the President and thus
assist him in establishing and maintaining conditions under which the
objectives of the act can be secured.
Alan Greenspan served as Council Chairman during 1976, his second year
in that capacity. Burton G. Malkiel was a Council Member throughout 1976,
on leave of absence from Princeton University, where he is Gordon S.
Rentschler Memorial Professor of Economics. On November 15, 1976, Paul
W. MacAvoy, Council Member, resigned to become Professor of Economics
with the School of Organization and Management at Yale University.
Past Council Members and their dates of service are listed below
Name
Position
Edwin G. N o u r s e . . . .
Leon H. Keyserling
Chairman
Vice Chairman
Acting Chairman
Chairman..
Member
Vice Chairman
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
_. Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
. Member
Member
Member...
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
John D.Clark
Roy Blough
Robert C. Turner
Arthur F. Burns
Neil H . J a c o b y . . .
Walter W. S t e w a r t Raymond J. Saulnier
Joseph S. Davis
Paul W. McCracken
Karl Brandt
Henry C. Wallich
Walter W. Heller
James Tobin.
Kermit Gordon
Gardner Ackley
..
.
John P. Lewis
Otto Eckstein
Arthur M. Okun
James S. Duesenberry
Merton J. Peck
Warren L. Smith
Paul W. McCracken
Hendrik S. Houthakker
Herbert Stein
Ezra Solomon..
Marina v . N . Whitman
Gary L. Seevers
William J. Fellner
Paul W. MacAvoy
.
.
Oath of office date
_
175
August 9,1946
August 9 , 1 9 4 6 .
November 2 , 1 9 4 9
May 10,1950
August 9 , 1 9 4 6 . .
May 10,1950
June 29,1950
September 8 , 1 9 5 2
March 19, 1953
September 15,1953
December 2,1953
April 4 , 1 9 5 5
December 3,1956
May 2, 1955
December 3,1956
November 1,1958
May 7,1959
January 2 9 , 1 9 6 1
January 2 9 , 1 9 6 1
January 2 9 , 1 9 6 1
August 3,1962
November 1 6 , 1 9 6 4 . . . .
May 17,1963
September 2 , 1 9 6 4
November 16,1964
February 15,1968
February 2 , 1 9 6 6
February 15,1968
July 1,1968
February 4 , 1 9 6 9
February 4 , 1 9 6 9
February 4 , 1 9 6 9
January 1,1972
September 9 , 1 9 7 1
March 13,1972
July 23,1973
October 3 1 , 1 9 7 3
June 13,1975
Separation date
November 1,1949.
January 2 0 , 1 9 5 3 .
February 11,1953.
August 20, 1952.
January 2 0 , 1 9 5 3 .
December 1,1956.
February 9, 1955.
April 29,1955.
January 2 0 , 1 9 6 1 .
October 31,1958.
January 3 1 , 1 9 5 9 .
January 2 0 , 1 9 6 1 .
January 2 0 , 1 9 6 1 .
November 15,1964.
July 3 1 , 1 9 6 2 .
December 2 7 , 1 9 6 2 .
February 15,1968.
August 3 1 , 1964.
February 1,1966.
January 2 0 , 1 9 6 9 .
June 3 0 , 1 9 6 8 .
January 2 0 , 1 9 6 9 .
January 2 0 , 1 9 6 9 .
December 3 1 , 1 9 7 1 .
July 1 5 , 1 9 7 1 .
August 31,1974.
March 2 6 , 1 9 7 3 .
August 15,1973.
April 15,1975.
February 25,1975.
November 15,1976.
RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE COUNCIL
The principal directive of the Employment Act is that the Federal Government "use all practicable means consistent with its needs and obligations . . .
for the purpose of creating and maintaining . . . conditions . . . to promote
maximum employment, production, and purchasing power."
To this end, the basic responsibility of the Council of Economic Advisers
is to analyze economic problems and interpret trends and changes in the
economy so as to assist the President in the development and evaluation of
national economic policies. The Council prepares regular reports on current
economic conditions and forecasts of future economic developments as well
as submitting recommendations which are considered in the formulation of
economic policy. The Council also performs a direct advisory role both within the Executive Office of the President and through participation in interagency groups in which representatives of various departments, agencies, and
offices in the executive branch evaluate economic problems and develop
alternative solutions.
During 1976 the Council and its staff contributed to the study of many
different economic issues. Analyzing current developments in business activity, evaluating alternative macroeconomic policies, as well as investigating productivity and the growth of potential output in the United States
were an important part of the Council's work last year. The Council also participated in studies of other topics of current importance in policy decisions:
foreign economic conditions and international financial developments; issues and proposals regarding agriculture and food, agricultural exports, and
commodity trade; ways of improving the functioning of the labor markets;
measures and programs to support housing construction and stimulate
investment; proposals for dealing with a wide range of energy issues and
problems; transportation problems; various proposals related to regulatory
reform and product liability insurance; proposals for improving the effectiveness of unemployment compensation, health insurance, social security and
income maintenance; and procedures that might improve the Government's
economic statistics.
Early each year the President submits the Economic Report of the President to the Congress as required by the Employment Act. The Council assumes major responsibility for the preparation of the Report, which together
with the accompanying Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers
reviews the progress of the economy during the preceding year and outlines
the Administration's policies and programs.
The Chairman is a member of the Economic Policy Board and of its
Executive Committee. This board was formed in October 1974 to direct
the formulation, coordination, and implementation of economic policy. The
Executive Committee, which serves as the focal point for economic policy
making, meets daily to address current issues of economic policy. It is
chaired by the Secretary of the Treasury and consists of the Chairman of
176
the Council of Economic Advisers, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Commerce, the
Secretary of Labor, the Executive Director of the Council on International
Economic Policy, and the Assistant to the President for Economic Affairs,
who is the Executive Director of both the Economic Policy Board and its
Executive Committee. The Executive Committee, often augmented by the
Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, meets
regularly with the President to review economic conditions and to discuss
and recommend possible changes in economic policy.
The Chairman of the Council is also a member of the Executive Committee of the President's Energy Resources Council, which was instituted
in October 1974 to formulate and coordinate energy policy. The Chairman
heads the U.S. delegation to the Economic Policy Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and serves
as vice chairman of that committee. Council Members and staff economists
meet with various working parties of the committee and attend other meetings of the OECD during the year.
The review and analysis of the overall performance of the economy is
conducted and coordinated through a series of "Troika" working groups,
comprising representatives of the Council, the Treasury, and the Office of
Management and Budget. At regular intervals economists from these agencies evaluate recent economic performance and formulate economic forecasts
which are then reviewed by a second group, chaired by a Council Member
and including a representative of the Treasury and the Office of Management and Budget. The analysis and projections thus developed are finally
reviewed and cleared through the Chairman of the Council for presentation
and consideration by the Executive Committee of the Economic Policy
Board.
The Council has initiated a series of periodic meetings at which leading
economists are invited to present their views on the economy and economic
policy to the Executive Committee of the Economic Policy Board.
The Joint Economic Committee (JEC), like the Council, was created by
the Employment Act of 1946 to make a continuing study of matters relating
to the economy and to submit its own report and recommendations to the
Congress. During 1976 the Chairman and Members of the Council appeared
three times before the JEC. The Chairman and Council Members also presented testimony before the following: the Senate Committee on Banking,
Housing, and Urban Affairs; the Subcommittee on Manpower, Compensation, and Health and Safety of the Committee on Education and Labor; and
the Subcommittee on Financial Markets of the Senate Finance Committee.
The Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers, contained in
the Economic Report of the President, is the main vehicle through which the
Council informs the public of its work and its views. This publication presents a comprehensive review and analysis of economic conditions, with
forecasts and projections for the coming year, as well as an explanation of
177
the Administration's economic policy. In recent years about 50,000 copies
of the Economic Report have been distributed. The Council also conveys its
views on current economic problems and developments through occasional
press briefings, testimony before various congressional committees, and
speeches and papers by the Chairman and the Members of the Council. The
Council assumes primary responsibility for the monthly publication
Economic Indicators. This compilation of current data, prepared by the
Council's Statistical Office under the direction of Frances M. James and
Catherine H. Furlong, and issued by the Joint Economic Committee, has a
distribution of about 10,000 copies.
ORGANIZATION AND STAFF OF THE COUNCIL
OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN
The Chairman is responsible for communicating the Council's views to
the President. This duty is performed through discussions with the President
and through regular reports on economic developments. The Chairman also
represents the Council at Cabinet meetings and at many other formal and
informal meetings of Government officials. He exercises ultimate respon- *
sibility for directing the work of the professional staff.
COUNCIL MEMBERS
The Council Members directly supervise the work of the staff and are
responsible for all subject matter covered by the Council. They generally
meet with the Economic Policy Board and prepare analyses for its use, and
they represent the Council at numerous other meetings, where they assume
major responsibility for the Council's involvement. Whenever the Chairman
is absent from Washington, one of the Council Members becomes Acting
Chairman.
In practice the Chairman and the Council Members work as a team.
For operational reasons, however, subject matter is divided informally between the Council Members. In 1976 Mr. Malkiel's responsibility covered
these areas: analysis of business conditions; short-term forecasting, and
matters that relate to monetary and fiscal policy; international trade and
finance; manpower employment and developments in the labor market;
financial markets; housing; taxation; and social security. Mr. Malkiel was
Chairman of the second-level Troika group and also of the Economic
Policy Board's subcommittee on improving economic statistics. Mr. MacAvoy's responsibility encompassed these fields: energy; natural resources and
commodity trade issues; food and agriculture; health, education, and welfare; environmental problems; transportation; regulated industries; and
antitrust questions. He was Chairman of the Economic Policy Board's Food
Deputies Group and co-Chairman of the Domestic Council Group on Regulatory Reform. The Council Members were involved in a large number
of the committees and subcommittees of the Economic Policy Board.
178
PROFESSIONAL STAFF
At the end of 1976 the professional staff was made up of the following
persons with their special fields of economic analysis:
Senior Staff Economists
Barry R. Chiswick
Peter K. Clark
John M. Davis
Bruce L. Gardner
Helen B. Junz
Michael D. McCarthy
David C. Munro
John J. Siegfried
William L. Springer
John B. Taylor
Philip K. Verleger, Jr
Labor, Human Resources, and Income
Distribution
Productivity, Aggregate Supply, and Economic
Analysis
Special Assistant to the Chairman
Agriculture and Food
International Finance and Trade
Business Conditions, Econometrics, and Forecasting
Business Conditions, Econometrics, and Forecasting
Regulated Industries, Transportation, and
Environment
Fiscal Policy and Public Finance
Monetary Policy, Capital Markets, Interest
Rates, and Housing
Energy Analysis and Policy, Microeconomic
Analysis
Staff Economist
Doral S. Cooper
International Finance and Trade
Statisticians
Frances M. James
Catherine H. Furlong
Senior Staff Statistician
Statistician
Junior Staff Economists
Arthur E. Blakemore
Richard E. Browning
Richard A. Koss
Timothy H. Quinn
Barbara A. Smith
Paul C. Westcott
Benjamin Zycher
Labor, Human Resources, and Fiscal Policy
Business Conditions, Labor, and International
Finance
Econometrics and Forecasting
Regulated Industries
Business Conditions and International Finance
Agriculture and Prices
Regulated Industries, Monetary Policy, and
Energy
Frances M. James, Senior Staff Statistician, is in charge of the Statistical
Office and manages the Council's economic and statistical information system. In addition to supervising the publication of Economic Indicators she
directs the fact checking of memoranda, testimony, and speeches presented
by Council Members and staff. Catherine H. Furlong, Dorothy Bagovich,
and Natalie Rentfro assist Miss James in carrying out these tasks and in the
preparation of the tables and charts accompanying the Economic Report.
During the summer James R. Golden (U.S. Military Academy) was a
179
member of the senior staff, and Robert S. Stillman (University of California,
Los Angeles) served on the junior staff. Rudiger Dornbusch (Massachusetts
Institute of Technology), George M. von Furstenberg (Indiana University), Stephen M. Goldfeld (Princeton University), R. Jeffery Green
(Indiana University), Allan G. Pulsipher (Southern Illinois University),
and Milton Russell (Resources for the Future, Washington)., served as
consultants to the Council. Students providing assistance were Susan
Benedict (Allegheny College) and Teri F. Liebowitz (Boston University).
In preparing the Economic Report the Council relied upon the editorial
assistance of Rosannah C. SteinhofT..Also called on for special assistance in
connection with the Report were Dorothy L. Reid, a former member of the
Council staff, Elizabeth A. Kaminski of the Administrative Office, and
Earnestine Reid of the Statistical Office.
SUPPORTING STAFF
The Administrative Office provides administrative support for the entire
Council staff. Its work includes preparing and analyzing the Council's
budget, procuring equipment and supplies, responding to letters and inquiries from the general public, and distributing the Council's speeches, reports, and congressional testimony. In 1976 the Administrative Office consisted of Nancy F. Skidmore, Administrative Officer, and Elizabeth A.
Kaminski. The duplicating, mail, and messenger department was operated
by James W. Gatling and Frank C. Norman.
Serving on the secretarial staff for the Chairman and Council Members
during 1976 were Margaret A. Bocek, Patricia A. Lee, and Alice H. Williams. Secretaries for the professional staff were M. Catherine Fibich,
Dorothy L. Green, Bessie M. Lafakis, Joyce A. Pilkerton, Earnestine Reid,
Linda A. Reilly, Margaret L. Snyder, and Lillie M. Sturniolo.
DEPARTURES
The Council's professional staff members are drawn primarily from universities and research institutions. Senior staff economists who resigned during the year, and their new institutions and affiliations, were John D. Darroch (Department of Commerce), George M. von Furstenberg (Indiana
University), R. Jeffery Green (Indiana University), David L. McNicol
(California Institute of Technology), June A. O'Neill (Congressional
Budget Office), Frederick M. Peterson (Rinfret Associates, New York), Milton Russell (Resources for the Future, Washington), and John L. Scadding
(University of Toronto). Rosemary Quintano, staff economist, resigned to
accept a position with the Brookings Institution, Washington.
Junior economists who resigned in 1976 were David W. Brazell (University of Wisconsin), David B. Crary (National Bureau of Economic Research,
Washington), James W. Moser (University of California, Los Angeles),
Joan M. Porter (Rice University), Valerie Sarris (Yale University), and J.
W. Henry Watson (University of California, Los Angeles). Others who resigned during the year were Jerry W. Gatling, messenger, and Anne V.
Jackson, secretary.
180
Appendix B
STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME,
EMPLOYMENT. AND PRODUCTION
181
CONTENTS
NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE:
B-l.
B-2.
B-3.
B-4.
B-5.
B-6.
B-7.
B-8.
B-9.
B-10.
B-ll.
B-l2.
B-l3.
B-14.
B-l5.
B-l6.
B-l 7.
B-l8.
B-l9.
B-20.
B-21.
B-22.
B-23.
B-24.
B-25.
Gross national product, 1929-76
Gross national product in 1972 dollars, 1929-76
Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-76
Implicit price deflators and alternative price measures of gross
national product and gross domestic product, 1929-76
Gross national product by industry in 1972 dollars, 1947-75
Gross national product by major type of product, 1929-76
Gross national product by major type of product in 1972 dollars,
1929-76
Gross national product: Receipts and expenditures by major economic groups, 1929-76
Gross national product by sector, 1929-76
Gross national product by sector in 1972 dollars, 1929-76
Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business, 1929-76. .
Output, costs, and profits of nonfinancial corporate business, 1948-76.
Personal consumption expenditures, 1929-76
Gross private domestic investment, 1929-76
Inventories and final sales of business, 1946-76
Inventories and final sales of business in 1972 dollars, 1947-76
Relation of gross national product and national income, 1929-76....
Relation of national income and personal income, 1929-76
National income by type of income, 1929-76
Sources of personal income, 1929-76
Disposition of personal income, 1929-76
Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures in current and 1972 dollars, 1929-76
Gross saving and investment, 1929-76
Saving by individuals, 1946-76
Number and money income (in 1975 dollars) of families and unrelated
individuals, by race of head, 1947-75
Page
187
188
190
192
193
194
195
196
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
210
212
213
214
215
216
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY:
B-26.
B-27.
B-28.
B-29.
B-30.
B-31.
B-32.
B-33.
Population by age groups, 1929-76
Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-76
Civilian employment and unemployment by sex and age, 1947-76. .
Selected unemployment rates, 1948-76
Unemployment by duration, 1947-76
Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1946-76
Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1929-76.
Average weekly hours and hourly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries, 1947-76
B-34. Average weekly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries, 1947-76
B-35. Productivity and related data, private business economy, 1947-76. . .
B-36. Changes in productivity and related data, private business economy,
1948-76
183
217
218
220
221
222
223
224
226
227
228
229
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
B-37. Industrial production indexes, major industry divisions, 1929-76. .. .
B-38. Industrial production indexes, market groupings, 1947-76
B-39. Industrial production indexes, selected manufactures, 1947-76
B-40. Capacity utilization rate in manufacturing, 1948-76
B-41. New construction activity, 1929-76
B-42. New housing units started and authorized, 1959-76
B-43. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1947-77
B-44. Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1947-76
B-45. Manufacturers' shipments and inventories, 1947-76
B-46. Manufacturers' new and unfilled orders, 1947-76
Page
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
238
239
240
PRICES:
B-47.
B-48.
B-49.
B-50.
241
242
243
B-51.
B-52.
B-53.
B-54.
B-55.
B-56.
Consumer price indexes by expenditure classes, 1929-76
Consumer price indexes by commodity and service groups, 1939-76.
Consumer price indexes, selected commodities and services, 1939-76.
Consumer price indexes, for commodity groups, seasonally adjusted,
1973-76
Consumer price indexes for service groups and selected expenditure
classes, seasonally adjusted, 1973-76
Percent changes in consumer price indexes, major groups, 1948-76. .
Wholesale price indexes by major commodity groups, 1929-76
Wholesale price indexes by stage of processing and by special groupings, 1947-76
Wholesale price indexes for selected groupings, seasonally adjusted,
1973-76
Percent changes in wholesale price indexes, major groups, 1948-76. .
MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCE:
B-57. Money stock measures, 1947-76
B-58. Commercial bank loans and investments, 1930-76
B-59. Private liquid asset holdings, nonfinancial investors, 1959-76
B-60. Total funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors, 1968-76.
B-61. Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 1929-76. . .
B-62. Aggregate reserves and member bank deposits, 1959-76
B-63. Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-76
B-64. Instalment credit extensions and liquidations, 1971-76
B-65. Mortgage debt outstanding by type of property and of financing,
1939-76
B-66. Mortgage debt outstanding by holder, 1939-76
B-67. Net public and private debt, 1929-75
GOVERNMENT FINANCE:
B-68. Federal budget receipts, outlays, and debt, fiscal years 1968-78
B-69. Federal budget receipts and outlays, fiscal years 1929-78
B-70. Relation of the Federal budget to the Federal sector of the national
income and product accounts, fiscal years 1976-78
B-71. Receipts and expenditures of the government sector of the national
income and product accounts, 1929-76
B-72. Receipts and expenditures of the Federal Government sector of the
national income and product accounts, 1949-78
B-73. Receipts and expenditures of the State and local government sector of
the national income and product accounts, 1946-76
B-74. State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected fiscal
years, 1927-75
B-75. Interest-bearing public debt by kind of obligation, 1967-76
184
244
245
246
247
249
251
252
253
254
255
256
258
259
260
262
263
264
265
266
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
Page
B-76. Estimated ownership of public debt securities, 1967-76
B-77. Average length and maturity distribution of marketable interestbearing public debt held by private investors, 1967-76
CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE:
B-78. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments, 1946-76
B-79. Corporate profits by industry, 1929-76
B-80. Corporate profits of manufacturing industries, 1929-76
B-81. Sales, profits, and stockholders5 equity, all manufacturing corporations, 1947-76
B-82. Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, all
manufacturing corporations, 1947-76
B-83. Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, all
manufacturing corporations, by industry group, 1975-76
B-84. Sources and uses of funds, nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business,
1946-76
B-85. Current assets and liabilities of U.S. corporations, 1939-76
B-86. State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-76
B-87. Common stock prices and yields, 1949-76
B-88. Business formation and business failures, 1929-76
AGRICULTURE:
B-89. Income of farm people and farmers, 1929-76
B-90. Farm production indexes, 1929-76
B-91. Farm population, employment, and productivity, 1929-76
B-92. Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers and selected farm
resource prices, 1929-76
B-93. Selected measures of farm resources and inputs, 1929-76
B-94. Comparative balance sheet of the farming sector, 1929-77
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS:
B-95. U.S. international transactions, 1946-76
B-96. U.S. merchandise exports and imports by commodity groups,
1958-76
B-97. U.S. merchandise exports and imports by area, 1970-76
B-98. U.S. overseas loans and grants, by type and area,fiscalyears, 1962-75.
B-99. International reserves, 195?, 1962, and 1972-76
B-100. U.S. reserve assets, 1946-76
B-101. International investment position of the United States at year-end,
1971-75
B-102. Price changes in international trade, 1968-76
B-103. Consumer price indexes in the United States and other major industrial countries, 1955-76
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
* Preliminary.
_ _ Not available (also, not applicable).
185
275
276
277
278
280
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE
T A B L E B-l.—Gross national product, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Year or quarter
1929..
Gross
national
product
Net exports of goods
and services
Personal Gross
con- )rivate
sump- dotion mestic
ImExexn vest- Net
pend- ment exports ports ports
itures
Government purchases of goods and
services
Federal
Total
Total
National
defense i
Nonet en se
State
and
local
Percent
hange
from
preceding
>eriod,
gross
national
pro- 2
duct
103.4
77.3
16.2
1.1
7.0
5.9
8.8
1.4
1933
55.8
45.8
1.4
.4
2.4
2.0
8.2
2.1
1939...
90.8
67.0
9.3
1.1
4.4
3.4
13.5
5.2
1.2
3.9
8.3
6.9
1940..
1941
1942
1943 .
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948.
1949
100.0
124.9
158.3
192.0
210.5
212.3
209 6
232.8
259.1
258.0
71.0
80.8
88.6
99.4
108.2
119 5
143.8
161.7
174.7
178.1
13 1
17.9
9.9
5.8
7.2
10 6
30 7
34.0
45.9
35 3
1.7
1.3
.0
-2.0
-1.8
-.6
7.6
11.6
6.5
6.2
5.4
5.9
4.8
4.4
5.3
7.2
14 8
19.8
16.9
15.9
3.6
4.6
4.8
6.5
7.1
7.8
7.2
8.2
10.4
9.6
14.2
24.9
59.8
88.9
97.0
82.8
27.5
25.5
32.0
38.4
6.1
16.9
52.0
81.3
89.4
74.6
17.6
12.7
16.7
20.4
2.2
13.7
49.4
79.7
87.4
73 5
14.8
9.0
10.7
13.2
3.9
3.2
2.6
1.6
2.0
1.1
2.8
3.7
6.0
7.2
8.1
8.0
7.8
7.5
7.6
8.2
9.9
12.8
15.3
18.0
10.1
24.9
26.8
21.3
9.6
9
-1 3
11.1
11.3
- 4
1950
1951
1952.
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
286 2
330.2
347.2
366 1
366.3
399.3
420.7
442 8
448.9
486.5
192 0
207.1
217.1
229 7
235.8
253.7
266.0
280 4
289.5
310.8
53 8
59 2
52.1
53 3
52.7
68.4
71.0
69 2
61.9
77.6
19
3.8
2.4
6
2.0
2.2
4.3
61
2.5
.6
13 9
18.9
18.2
17 1
18.0
20.0
23.9
26 7
23.3
23.7
12.0
15.1
15.8
16.6
16.0
17.8
19.6
20.7
20.8
23.2
38.5
60.1
75.6
82.5
75.8
75.0
79.4
87.1
95.0
97.6
18.7
38.3
52.4
57.5
47.9
44.5
45.9
50.0
53.9
53.9
14 0
33.5
45.8
48 6
41.1
38.4
40.2
44 0
45.6
45.6
4.7
4.8
6.5
8.9
6.8
6.0
5.7
5.9
8.3
8.3
19.8
21.8
23.2
25.0
27.8
30.6
33.5
37.1
41.1
43.7
10 9
15 4
5.1
55
.0
9.0
5.4
52
1.4
8.4
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
506.0
523 3
563.8
594.7
635.7
688.1
753.0
796.3
868.5
935.5
324.9
335 0
355.2
374.6
400 4
430.2
464.
490.4
535.9
579.
76.4
74 3
85 2
90.2
96 6
112.0
124.5
120.8
131 5
146.2
4.4
58
5.4
6.3
89
7.6
5.1
4.9
2.3
1.8
27.6
28.9
30.6
32.7
37.4
39.5
42.8
45.6
49.9
54.7
23.2
23.1
25.2
26.4
28.4
32.0
37.7
40.6
47.7
52.9
100.3
108.2
118.0
123.7
129.8
138.4
158.7
180.2
198.7
207.9
53.7
57.4
63.7
64.6
65.2
67.3
78.8
90.9
98.0
97.5
44.5
47 0
51.1
50.3
49.0
49.4
60.3
71.5
76.9
76.3
9.3
10.4
12.7
14.3
16.2
17.8
18.5
19.5
21.2
21.2
46.5
50.8
54.3
59.0
64.6
71.1
79.8
89.3
100.7
110.4
4.0
34
7.7
5.5
69
8.2
9.4
5.8
9.1
7.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
982.4
1,063.4
1,171.1
1 306.6
1,413.2
618
668.
733.
809.
887.
140 8
160.0
188.3
220.0
215.0
3.9
1.6
-3.3
7.1
7.5
62.5
65.6
72.7
101.6
144.4
58.5
64.0
75.9
94.4
136.9
218.9
233.7
253.1
269.5
303.3
95.6
96.2
102.1
102.2
111.6
73.5
70.2
73.5
73.5
77. 3
22.1
26.0
28.6
28.7
34.3
123.2
137.5
151.0
167.3
191.6
5.0
8.2
10.1
11.6
8.2
1975
1976 v
1,516.3 973.
1, 692.4 1,078.
183.7
241.2
20.5
6.9
148.1
161.9
127.6
155.1
339.0
365.8
124.4
133.4
84.3
88.2
40.1
45.2
214.5
232.3
7.3
11.6
1,372.7
1,399.4
1,431.6
1,449.2
853.
878.
906.
911.
216.4
218.8
213.3
211.5
15.0
3.9
2.9
8.1
133.2
142.2
148.4
153.8
118.2
138.3
145.5
145.7
288.0
298.0
308.6
318.5
106.1
108.9
113.5
118.1
74.9
75.9
78.2
80.2
31.2
33.0
35.3
37.9
181.9
189.1
195.1
200.4
5.3
8.0
9.5
5.0
1975: 1
II
III
IV
1, 446.2
933.
1, 482.3 960.
1,548.7
987.
1,588.2 1,012.
172.4
164.4
196.7
201.4
15.0
24.4
21.4
21.0
147.5
142.9
148.2
153.7
132.5
118.5
126.8
132.7
325.6
333.2
343.2
353.8
120.3
122.4
124.6
130.4
82.0
83.4
84.6
87.1
38.3
39.0
40.0
43.2
205.3
210.9
218.6
223.4
-.8
10.4
19.1
10.6
1976: 1
II
Ill
1,636.2
1,675.2
1,709.8
1,748. 5
229.6
239.2
247.0
249.0
8.4
9.3
4.7
5.2
154.1
160.3
167.7
165.6
145.7
151.0
163.0
160.4
354.7
362.0
369.6
376.8
129.2
131.2
134.5
138.9
86.2
86.9
88.5
91.3
42.9
44.2
46.0
47.6
225.5
230.9
235.0
238.0
12.6
9.9
8.5
9.4
1974: 1
II
III
IV
-
1, 043.
1,064.
1,088.
1,117.
7.4
6.1
-4.2
1
This category corresponds closely to the national defense classification in "The Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1978."
2 Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from those obtained from data shown here.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
187
TABLE B-2.—Gross national product in 1972 dollars, 1929-76
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Personal consumption expenditures
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment
Year or quarter
Gross
national
product
Total
NonDurable durable Services
goods
goods
Nonresidential
Total
Total
Structures
Producers*
durable
equipment
16.4
Total
1929
314.7
215.6
21.5
98.1
96.1
55.9
51.3
37.0
20.6
1933
222.1
170.7
10.9
82.9
76.8
8.4
13=3
10.4
4.9
5.5
1939
319.7
220.3
19.1
115.1
86.1
33.6
32.0
20.7
8.6
12.1
1940
1941
1942
1943..
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
343.6
396.6
454.6
527.3
567.0
559.0
477.0
468.3
487.7
490.7
230.4
244.1
241.7
248.7
255.7
271.4
301.4
306.2
312.8
320.0
21.8
24.7
16.3
14.5
13.5
14.8
25.8
30.6
33.1
36.3
119.9
127.6
129.9
134.0
139.4
150.3
158.9
154.8
155.0
157.4
88.7
91.8
95.5
100.1
102.7
106.3
116.7
120.8
124.6
126.4
44.6
55.8
29.6
18.1
19.8
27.8
71.0
70.1
82.3
65.6
38.4
43.8
24.4
18.0
22.1
31.4
58.8
70.4
76.8
70.0
25.7
30.3
17.6
14.0
18.7
27.6
42.0
48.9
51.0
46.0
9.9
11.9
6.7
4.2
5.5
8.3
18.8
17.3
18.4
17.8
15.8
18.5
10.9
9.8
13.2
19.2
23.2
31.6
32.7
28.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
533.5
576.5
598.5
621.8
613.7
654.8
668.8
680.9
679.5
720.4
338.1
342.3
350.9
364.2
370.9
395.1
406.3
414.7
419.0
441.5
43.4
39.9
38.9
43.1
43.5
52.2
49.8
49.7
46.4
51.8
161.8
165.3
171.2
175.7
177.0
185.4
191.6
194.9
196.8
205.0
132.8
137.1
140.8
145.5
150.4
157.5
164.9
170.2
175.8
184.7
93.7
94.1
83.2
85.6
83.4
104.1
102.9
97.2
87.7
107.4
83.2
80.4
78.9
84.1
85,6
96.3
97.1
95.7
89.6
101.0
50.0
52.9
52.1
56.3
55.4
61.2
65.2
66.0
58.9
62.9
19.1
20.6
20.6
22.5
23.5
25.3
28.1
28.1
26.4
26.8
30.9
32.3
31.5
33.8
31.8
35.9
37.1
37.9
32.5
36.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
736.8
755.3
799.1
830.7
874.4
925.9
981.0
1,007.7
1,051.8
1,078.8
453.0
462.2
482.9
501.4
528.7
558.1
586.1
603.2
633.4
655.4
52.5
50.3
55.7
60.7
65.7
73.4
79.0
79 7
88.2
91 9
208.2
211.9
218.5
223.0
233.3
244.0
255.5
259.5
270.2
276.4
192.3
200.0
208.7
217.6
229.7
240.7
251.6
264.0
275.0
287.2
105.4
103.6
117.4
124.5
132.1
150.1
161.3
152.7
159.5
168.0
101.0
100.7
109.3
116.8
124.8
138.8
144.6
140.7
150.8
157.5
66.0
65.6
70.9
73.5
81.0
95.6
106.1
103.5
108.0
114.3
28.8
29.3
30.8
30.8
33.3
39.6
42.5
41.1
42.0
44.0
37.2
36.3
40.1
42.7
47.7
56.0
63.6
62.4
66.1
70.3
1,075. 3
1,107 5
1,171.1
1,235 0
1,214.0
1,191.7
1,265.0
668.9
691 9
733.0
767 7
759.1
770.3
812.9
88.9
98 1
111.2
121 8
112.3
111.9
125.7
282.7
287.5
299.3
309.3
303.5
306.1
319.1
297.3
306.3
322.4
336.5
343.4
352.4
368.1
154.7
166.8
188.3
207.2
182.0
137.8
171.9
150.4
160.2
178.8
190.7
173.5
149.8
162.8
110.0
108.0
116.8
131.0
128.5
111.4
115.7
42.8
41.7
42.5
45.5
42.1
36.7
38.1
67.2
66.3
74.3
85.5
86.5
74.7
77.6
1974: 1
II
Ill
IV
1,230.4
1, 220.8
1,212.9
1,191.7
761.8
761.9
764 7
748.1
114.9
115.0
116 1
103.1
305.1
304.0
304.9
299.8
341.8
342.9
343.7
345.1
194.8
187.9
176.2
169.1
183.4
178.5
171.1
161.1
133.5
131.6
127.3
121.8
44.6
43.5
40.3
39.8
88.9
88.1
86.9
82.0
1975- 1
II
III
IV
1,161.1
1,177.1
1,209.3
1, 219.2
754.6
767.5
775.3
783,9
106 0
108.4
115.1
118.0
300.6
307.2
306.8
309.5
348.0
351.8
353.4
356.4
129.3
126.2
148.7
147.0
149.8
147.4
149.7
152.5
114.4
110.6
110.1
110.5
37.5
36.1
36.6
36.7
76.9
74.5
73.5
73.8
1976: 1
II
Ill
IV* . .
1, 246. 3
1, 260. 0
1, 272.2
1,281.5
800.7
808.6
815.7
826.6
124.3
125.2
126 2
127.0
314.6
317.6
318.9
325.5
361.8
365.8
370.6
374.2
167.1
171.7
175.2
173.7
156.7
160.6
165.0
169.1
112.6
114.9
117.5
117.8
37.1
37.9
38.4
39.0
75.5
77.0
79.2
78.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 v
.
See footnotes at end of table.
188
TABLE B-2.—Gross national product in 1972 dollars,
1929-76—Continued
[Billions of 1972 dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross private domestic
investment—continued
Net exports of goods
and services
Government purchases
of goods and services
Fixed investment—continued
Residential
Year or
quarter
Total
Nonfarm
structures
Farm
structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
Change
in
business
inventories
Percent
change
from
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
Federal
State
and
local
preceding
period,
33.9
gross
national
product *
14.3
13.6
0.6
0.1
4.6
2.2
15.6
13.4
40.9
6.9
1933
2.9
2.6
.2
.1
-4.9
.2
9.4
9.3
42.8
10.8
32.0
1939
11.3
10.6
.6
1.6
2.0
13.3
11.4
63.8
22.6
41.2
7.6
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944.....
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
12.8
13.5
6.8
4.0
3.4
3.8
16.8
21.5
25.8
24.0
11.8
12.5
6.1
3.5
3.0
3.5
15.5
19.8
23.9
22.3
.8
.9
.6
.4
.4
.3
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.4
6.2
12.0
5.2
3.0
.8
-2.5
-7.3
-7.2
-4.5
11.6
16.6
8.5
8.8
14.6
14.7
10.3
9.0
10.0
13.5
26.1
30.2
24.2
24.2
11.5
14.0
12.8
16.3
17.3
18.0
14.6
13.6
15.7
15.4
65.5
95.9
185.8
267.9
298.8
264.3
93.1
75.4
84.1
96.2
26.3
58.6
151.5
236.3
268.2
232.7
58.4
36.1
42.4
48.9
39.2
37.3
34.3
31.6
30.6
31.6
34.8
39.3
41.8
47.4
7.5
15.4
14.6
16.0
7.5
-1.4
-14.7
-1.8
4.1
.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
33.2
27.5
26.8
27.8
30.2
35.1
31.9
29.7
30.6
38.1
31.5
25.9
25.3
26.3
28.8
33.8
30.4
28.3
29.2
36.5
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
.9
1.0
1.0
.9
1.0
1960
1961
1962
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
35.0
35.1
38.4
43.2
43.8
43.2
38.5
37.2
42.8
43.2
33.7
33.6
36.9
41.7
42.2
41.6
36.9
35.5
41.1
41.5
.8
1.0
.9
.9
.9
.8
.9
.9
.8
.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
P
40.4
52.2
62.0
59.7
45.0
38.4
47.1
38.9
50.5
60.3
57.9
42.9
36.6
45.1
.6
.7
.7
.5
.8
.6
.7
1974:1....
II...
III..
IV...
49.9
47.0
43.9
39.3
47.8
44.9
41.9
37.1
.9
.7
.7
1.0
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1975:1....
II...
III..
IV..
35.4
36.8
39.6
41.9
34.0
35.2
37.6
39.7
.4
.4
.7
1.0
1976:1....
II..
III..
IV v
44.1
45.7
47.4
51.3
42.0
43.9
45.5
49.2
.9
.6
.7
.8
1929
1963
1
-2 # .3
-3.6
12.2
-.2
5.5
-4.4
-2.1
10.6
13.7
4.3
1.5
-2.2
7.7
5.8
1.5
-1.8
6.5
4.4
2.9
8.1
7.8
7.3
11.3
16.7
12.0
8.7
10.6
4.0
7.4
4.9
2.0
4.5
4.7
7.3
8.9
3.5
.9
21.7
25.9
24.9
23.8
25.3
27.9
32.3
34.8
30.7
31.5
17.7
18.5
20.0
21.8
20.8
23.2
25.0
26.0
27.2
30.6
97.7
132.7
159.5
170.0
154.9
150.9
152.4
160.1
169.3
170.7
47.0
81.3
107.0
114.6
95.2
86.9
85.9
89.8
92.8
91.8
50.7
51.3
52.5
55.4
59.7
64.0
66.5
70.3
76.4
78.9
8.7
8.1
3.8
3.9
-1.3
6.7
2.1
1.8
-.2
6.0
5.5
6.7
5.8
7.3
10.9
8.2
4.3
3.5
-.4
-1.3
35.8
37.0
39.6
42.2
47.8
49.1
51.6
54.2
58.5
62.2
30.3
30.3
33.9
35.0
36.9
41.0
47.3
50.7
58.9
63.5
172.9
182.8
193.1
197.6
202.7
209.6
229.3
248.3
259.2
256.7
90.8
95.6
103.1
102.2
100.6
100.5
112.5
125.3
128.3
121.8
82.0
87.1
90.0
95.4
102.1
109.1
116.8
123.1
130.9
134.9
2.3
2.5
5.8
4.0
5.3
5.9
5.9
2.7
4.4
2.6
4.3
.9
6.6
1.0
9.4
1.1
1.2
16.5
1.3
8.5
1.2 -12.0
1.3
9.1
1.4
-.6
-3.3
7.6
16.5
22.6
15.9
67.1
67.9
72.7
87.4
97.2
90.6
95.7
65.7
68.5
75.9
79.9
80.7
68.1
79.8
250.2
249.4
253.1
252.5
256.4
261.0
264.2
110.7
103.9
102.1
96.6
95.3
95.7
96.7
139.5
145.5
151.0
155.9
161.1
165.2
167.5
-.3
3.0
5.7
5.5
-1.7
-1.8
6.2
11.4
9.4
5.1
8.0
18.4
14.9
14.9
17.7
97.8
98.7
96.4
95.9
79.4
83.8
81.5
78.2
255.4
256.1
257.1
256.9
95.3
94.7
95.8
95.4
160.1
161.4
161.3
161.5
-3.9
-3.1
-2.6
-6.8
1.0 -20.5
1.1 -21.2
1.2 - 1 . 0
1.2 - 5 . 5
20.1
24.3
22.8
23.1
90.3
87.7
90.7
93.9
70.2
63.4
67.9
70.8
257.1
259.1
262.4
265.2
94.8
95.3
95.6
97.2
162.2
163.8
166.9
168.0
-9.9
5.6
11.4
3.3
10.4
11.1
10.2
4.7
16.6
16.0
15.7
15.3
93.6
95.4
98.0
95.8
77.0
79.4
82.3
80.5
261.9
263.6
265.5
265.8
95.4
96.0
97.3
98.1
166.6
167.7
168.2
167.7
9.2
4.5
3.9
3.0
.9
.9
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.4
Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from those obtained from data shown here.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
224-250 O - 77
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ - 13
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
189
TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-76
[Index numbers, 1972=100, except as noted; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Gross private domestic investmentl
Personal consumption expenditures
Fixed investment
Year or
quarter
Gross
national
product1
Nonresidential
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Services
Total
Total
Structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
1929
32.87
35.8
43.1
38.4
31.6
28.2
28.2
24.1
1933..
25.13
26.8
31.7
26.8
26.1
22.4
22.8
19.1
26.2
1939
28.40
30.4
34.9
30.5
29.2
27.6
28.2
22.8
32.0
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944..
1945.
1946
1947
1948
1949
29 10
31.49
34.82
36 41
37.13
37.99
43.88
49.70
53.13
52.59
30.8
33.1
36.7
40.0
42.3
44.0
47.7
52.8
55.9
55.7
35.7
39.1
42.1
45.0
49.5
53.7
61.1
66.8
69.1
69.1
30.9
33.6
39.1
43.7
46.2
47.8
52.1
58.7
62.3
60.3
29.5
30.8
32.4
34.2
36.1
37.3
38.9
41.7
44.4
46.1
28.5
30.6
33.4
35.6
36.9
37.1
41.3
48.9
53.6
54.8
29.1
30.9
33.8
35.7
36.6
36.6
39.9
46.8
51.3
52.8
23.1
24.7
28.1
32.0
33.4
33.6
36.3
43.7
48.4
48.0
32.8
34.9
37.3
37.3
38.0
37.9
42.8
48.5
52.9
55.9
53.64
57.27
58.00
58 88
59.69
60.98
62.90
65.02
66 06
67.52
56.8
60.5
61.9
63.1
63.6
64.2
65.5
67.6
69.1
70.4
70.8
74.7
74.8
75.5
73.2
74.0
76.0
79.2
79.4
81.9
60.7
65.8
66.6
66.3
66.6
66.3
67.3
69.4
71.0
71.4
47.4
49.9
52.6
55.4
57.2
58.5
60.2
62.2
64.2
66.0
56.5
60.8
62.1
62.9
63.4
64.8
68.3
70.9
70.8
71.6
54.3
58.9
59.9
61.0
61.4
62.6
67.0
70.7
70.6
72.0
48.8
54.7
55.8
56.8
55.9
57.0
61.8
64.4
63.3
63.6
57.6
61.6
62.5
63.7
65.4
66.5
71.0
75.4
76.5
78.2
68.67
69.28
70.55
71.59
72.71
74.32
76.76
79.02
82.57
86.72
71.7
72.5
73.6
74.7
75.7
77.1
79.3
81.3
84.6
88.5
82.1
82.7
83.9
84.8
85.7
85.6
85.7
87.4
90.7
93.1
72.6
73.3
73.9
74.9
75.8
77.3
80.1
81.9
85.3
89.4
68.0
69.1
70.4
71.7
72.8
74.3
76.5
78.8
82.0
86.1
71.9
71.6
72.0
72.1
72.8
73.8
76.2
78.7
82.1
86.9
72.2
71.8
72.3
72.9
73.6
74.5
76.8
79.3
82.6
86.6
63.1
62.7
63.0
63.5
64.4
65.9
68.8
71.8
75.3
81.1
79.3
79.2
79.4
79.6
80.1
80.6
82.1
84.3
87.3
90.0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 v
91.36
96.02
100.00
105.80
116.41
127.25
133.79
92.5
96.6
100.0
105.5
116.9
126.3
132.7
95.5
99.0
100.0
101.6
108.3
117.7
124.4
93.6
96.6
100.0
107.9
124.0
133.7
138.0
90.5
95.8
100.0
104.7
113.5
122.7
130.9
91.1
95.9
100.0
106.0
117.7
132.4
140.3
91.3
96.4
100.0
103.8
116.1
132.1
138.3
88.0
94.4
100.0
107.8
128.7
141.6
145.5
93.4
97.6
100.0
101.7
110.0
127.4
134.7
1974- 1
||
III
IV..
111 56
114.64
118.03
121.60
112 0
115.3
118.6
121.8
103 2
106 5
110.2
113.8
118.2
122.3
125.9
129.6
109.5
112.1
114.9
117.4
111.1
115.3
120.3
125.2
108.7
113.2
118.6
124.7
117.5
126.0
134.1
138.6
104.3
106.9
111.4
118.0
1975- 1
II
Ill
IV
124. 55
125. 93
128.07
130.27
123.7
125.1
127.3
129.1
115.1
117.1
118.2
120.2
131.2
132.1
135.1
136.2
119.7
121.5
123.6
125.9
129.9
131.9
132.7
134.9
129.4
131.8
132.7
134.5
141.6
141.5
141.4
142.0
123.5
127.1
128.3
130.8
1976:1
II
Ill
131.29
132.96
134.40
136.44
130.3
131.7
133.4
135.2
121.8
123.8
124.9
127.0
136.4
136.9
138.5
139.9
128.0
129.8
132.0
133.8
137.0
139.0
140.6
142.6
136.2
137.5
138.7
140.5
143.3
145.0
146.1
147.4
132.8
133.8
135.1
137.1
1950
1951.
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
IVP—_
See footnotes at end of table.
190
33.4
TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-76—Continued
[Index numbers, 1972=100, except as noted; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Gross private domestic
investment*—continued
Fixed investment—continued
Year or
quarter
Exports and
imports of
goods and
services i
Percent change
from preceding
period 2
Government purchases
of goods and services
Gross
domestic
prod-
Residential
Total
Nonfarm
structures
Farm
structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
1929..
28.2
27.8
28.6
1933
20.7
19.8
19.5
1939
26.6
26.3
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948.
1949
27.4
29.9
32.4
34.9
38.1
40.8
44.6
53.7
58.1
58.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
uct
Gross
Gross
donational mestic
product product
deflator deflator
Exports
Imports
Total
Federal
State
and
local
77.2
45.0
43.8
21.6
20.7
21.8
32.8
58.8
25.5
22.1
19.3
19.6
19.1
25.2
-2.2
-2.1
23.4
61.1
33.3
29.6
21.2
22.9
20.2
28.4
-.7
-.7
27 2
29.7
31.8
34 3
37.3
40.0
43.9
53.0
57.4
58.1
23.6
26.6
30.7
35.7
40.8
42.9
46.6
52.8
57.3
58.0
59 6
63.8
71.3
71 4
75 0
84.6
95.2
105.6
111.5
107.9
36 8
40.2
46.5
49 2
52.6
53.6
56.7
65.8
69.8
65.5
31.5
33.2
37.4
39.6
41.1
43.6
49.7
60.7
66.1
62.7
21.6
26.0
32.2
33.2
32.5
31.3
29.4
33.8
38.0
39.9
23.1
28.9
34.3
34.4
33.3
32.1
29.9
35.1
39.4
41.8
20.6
21.4
22.8
23.8
24.9
25.9
28.6
32.5
36.6
38.0
29.1
31.5
34.8
36 4
37.1
38.0
43.9
49.7
53.1
52.6
2 5
8.2
10.6
4 6
2 0
2.3
15.7
13.1
6.9
-1.0
2 5
8.2
10.6
4 5
2 0
2.3
15.6
13.1
6.9
-1.0
60.0
64.4
66.4
66.9
67.1
68.7
70.9
71.3
71.2
71.0
59.5
63.8
65.8
66.3
66.6
68.2
70.5
70.8
70.7
70.6
59.4
63.8
65.7
66.2
66.5
68.3
70.6
70.9
70.8
70.8
107.4
114.9
114.6
114.2
112.4
109.1
104.3
103.4
101.9
101.8
64.0
73.1
73.0
71.9
71.2
71.8
73.9
76.4
75.7
75.4
67.8
81.8
79.1
75.8
76.9
76.8
78.3
79.5
76.5
75.7
39.4
45.3
47.4
48.5
48.9
49.7
52.1
54.4
56.1
57.2
39.9
47.1
48.9
50.2
50.4
51.1
53.4
55.7
58.1
58.7
39.0
42.4
44.2
45.1
46.6
47.8
50.4
52.8
53.8
55.4
53.6
57.2
57.9
58.8
59.6
60.9
62.8
65.0
66.0
67.5
2.0
6.8
1.3
1.5
1.4
2.2
3.2
3.4
1.6
2.2
2.0
6.7
1.3
1.5
1.4
2.2
3.2
3.4
1.6
2.2
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
71.4
71.3
71.5
70.9
71.2
72.3
74.6
77.0
80.7
87.7
70.9
70.9
71.1
70.5
70.8
72.0
74.2
76.7
80.4
87.5
71.2
70.7
71.3
70.7
71.0
72.3
74.3
76.7
80.5
87.5
100.8
99.1
96.8
95.3
94.3
92.1
90 8
91.0
93.2
95.2
77.1
78.0
77.3
77.5
78 3
80.5
82 8
84.0
85.3
87.9
76.7
76.1
74.5
75.6
77.1
78.0
79.7
80.1
80.9
83.3
58.0
59.2
61.1
62.6
64.0
66.0
69.2
72.6
76.7
81.0
59.1
60.0
61.8
63.3
64.8
67.0
70.1
72.6
76.4
80.0
56.8
58.3
60.3
61.9
63.3
65.1
68.4
72.5
76.9
81.9
68.6
69.2
70.5
71.6
72.7
74.3
76.8
79.0
82.6
86.8
1.7
.9
1.8
1.5
1.6
2.2
3.3
2.9
4.5
5.0
1.7
.9
1.9
1.5
1.6
2.2
3.3
3.0
4.5
5.1
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976P.
90.6
94.9
100.0
110.8
122.3
133.2
143.8
90.4
94.8
100.0
111.0
122.8
133.7
144.4
90.5
95.0
100.0
110.7
122.8
133.6
143.9
97.5
99.3
100.0
100.1
105 3
116.3
122.4
93.1
96.6
100.0
116.2
148.6
163.4
169.2
89.1
93.5
100.0
118.2
169.6
187.4
194.3
87.5
93.7
100.0
106.7
118.3
129.9
138.4
86.4
92.6
100.0
105.8
117.1
130.0
138.0
88.3
94.5
100.0
107.3
119.0
129.8
138.7
91.4
96.0
100.0
105.7
115.9
126.9
133.4
5.4
5.1
4.1
5.8
10.0
9.3
5.1
5.3
5.1
4.1
5.7
9.6
9.5
5.1
1974: 1
II
III
IV
117.5
121.0
125.3
126.7
118.0
121 6
125.9
127.2
117.8
121.2
125.0
126.6
101.3
103.3
106.8
110.6
136.2
144 1
154.0
160.4
148.9
164.9
178.6
186.3
112.7
116.4
120.0
124.0
111.3
114.9
118.4
123.8
113.6
117.2
121.0
124.1
111.1
114.1
117.4
121.0
9.5
11.5
12.4
12.7
8.5
11.3
12.1
12.8
1975: 1
II
III
IV
131.5
132.1
132.8
135.9
132.1
132.7
133.3
136.4
130.9
131.6
132.6
136.2
113.6
115.6
117.0
118.8
163.4
163.0
163.4
163.7
188.9
186.9
186.6
187.3
126.7
128.6
130.8
133.4
126.8
128.4
130.4
134.2
126.5
128.7
131.0
132.9
124.2
125.6
127.7
129.9
10.1
4.5
7.0
7.1
10.9
4.5
7.0
7.1
1976: 1
II
Ill
139 0
142.9
145.3
147.3
139 6
143.4
145.9
148.0
138 8
143.8
145.5
147.8
120 1
122.4
123.2
124.0
164 6
168.1
171.1
172.9
189 2
190.4
198.1
199.4
135 4
137.3
139.2
141.8
135.4
136.7
138.3
141.5
135.4
137.7
139.7
141.9
130.9
132.6
133.9
136.0
3.2
5.2
4.4
6.2
3.0
5.3
4.2
6.3
..
IVP
.
1 Separate deflators are not available for gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, and net
exports of goods and services.
2
Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from those obtained from data shown here.
Quarterly data are at annual rates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
191
TABLE B-4.—Implicit price deflators and alternative price measures of gross national product
and gross domestic product, 1929-76
Gross national product price
measures, 1972 = 100
Gross domestic
product
Total
Year or
quarter
Percent change from preceding period l
Total
FixedFixedFixedImplicit weighted Implicit weighted Implicit weighted
price price index price price index price price index
deflator
(1972
deflator
(1972
deflator
(1972
weights)
weights)
weights)
Gross domestic product
Chain
price
index
FixedImplicit weighted
price price index
deflator
(1972
weights)
Chain
price
index
1929
32.87
1933
25.13
25.2
-2.2
-2.1
1939
28.40
28.4
-.7
-.7
1940
1941.
1942
1943
1944.
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
29.10
31.49
34.82
36.41
37.13
37.99
43.88
49.70
53.13
52.59
29.1
31.5
34.8
36.4
37.1
38.0
43.9
49.7
53.1
52.6
2.5
8.2
10.6
4.6
2.0
2.3
15.7
13.1
6.9
-1.0
2.5
8.2
10.6
4.5
2.0
23
15.6
13.1
6.9
-1.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
53.64
57.27
58.00
58.88
59.69
60.98
62.90
65.02
66.06
67.52
68.1
69.1
53.6
57.2
57.9
58.8
59.6
60 9
62.8
65.0
66.0
67.5
68.0
69.1
2.0
6.8
1.3
1.5
1.4
2.2
3.2
3.4
1.6
2.2
1.6
i.6
2.0
6.7
1.3
1.5
1.4
22
3.2
3.4
1.6
2.2
1.6
1.6
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
68.67
69.28
70.55
71.59
72.71
74.32
76.76
79.02
82.57
86.72
70.3
71.1
72.0
72.8
73.7
75.0
77.2
79.5
83.0
87.1
68.6
69.2
70.5
71.6
72.7
74.3
76.8
79.0
82.6
86.8
70.2
71.1
72.0
72.8
73.7
75.0
77.2
79.6
83.0
87.1
1.7
.9
1.8
1.5
1.6
2.2
3.3
2.9
4.5
5.0
1.7
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.8
2.9
3.0
4.3
5:0
1.7
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.9
3.1
3.0
4.4
5.0
1.7
.9
1.9
1.5
1.6
2.2
3.3
3.0
4.5
5.1
1.7
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.8
3.0
3.0
4.4
5.0
1.7
1.2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 v
91.36
96.02
100. 00
105. 80
116.41
127.25
133.79
91.6
96.1
100.0
106.0
116.6
127.3
134.2
91.4
96.0
100.0
105.7
115.9
126.9
133.4
91.7
96.2
100.0
105.9
116.2
126.8
133.8
5.4
5.1
4.1
5.8
10.0
9.3
5.1
5.2
4.9
4.0
6.0
10.0
9.2
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.1
6.0
10.0
9.2
5.3
5.3
5.1
4.1
5.7
9.6
9.5
5.1
5.2
4.9
4.0
5.9
9.7
9.2
5.5
5.3
5.0
4.1
5.9
9.7
9.3
5.5
1974:1
II....
III..-.
IV....
111.56
114.64
118.03
121.60
111.8
114.8
118.2
121.8
111.1
114.1
117.4
121.0
111.5
114.4
117.7
121.3
9.5
11.5
12.4
12.7
10.5
11.0
12.5
12.6
10.7
11.2
12.8
12.7
8.5
11.3
12.1
12.8
10.0
10.5
12.3
12.6
10.2
10.5
12.5
12.7
1975:1
II
III....
IV....
124. 55
125.93
128. 07
130. 27
124.4
126.0
128.3
130.4
124.2
125.6
127.7
129.9
123.9
125.6
127.8
129.9
10.1
4.5
7.0
7.1
8.9
5.4
7.3
6.6
9.2
5.4
7.3
6.4
10.9
4.5
7.0
7.1
9.0
5.5
7.4
6.7
9.4
5.5
7.4
6.4
1976:1
131.29
II
132.96
III.... 134. 40
I V P . . 136.44
131.7
133.4
134.9
136.8
130.9
132.6
133.9
136.0
131.3
133.0
134.4
136.3
3.2
5.2
4.4
6.2
4.2
5.2
4.6
5.8
4.3
5.4
4.6
5.8
3.0
5.3
4.2
6.3
4.2
5.3
4.4
5.9
4.3
5.4
4.4
5.8
. ..
. ..
32.8
1.3
1.4
1.9
3.1
3.1
4.4
5.0
i Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from those obtained from published indexe
shown here.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
192
TABLE B~5.—Gross national product by industry in 1972 dollars, 1947-75
[Billions of 1972 dollars]
Manufacturing
Agriculture,
Contract
construction
Transportation, Whole- Finance,
insurDuNon- comsale
ance, Servrable durable muni- and
and
ices
goods goods cation, retail
real
trade estate
indus- indus- and
utilitries
tries
ties
Government
and
All
govern- other i
ment
enterprises
Gross
national
product
fores-
1947
1948
1949
468.3
487.7
490.7
26.1
28.0
27.8
22.7
26.2
26.2
114.9
121.5
115.0
68.5
72.0
66.3
46.4
49.6
48.8
38.3
38.7
36.4
76.1
78.0
79.9
55.6
57.3
60.9
55.1
56.7
57.2
68.5
69 0
73.1
11.1
12 0
14.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
533.5
576.5
598 5
621.8
613.7
29.1
28.2
29 0
30.3
31.1
28.9
32.2
33.5
34.5
35.6
131.3
146.0
150.7
161.2
149.6
78.1
89.9
94.3
102.6
91.7
53.2
56.1
56.4
58.6
57.9
39.6
44.2
44.3
45.9
45.6
87.6
88.3
91.1
94.0
94.6
64.7
67.0
71 5
74.4
78.1
59.4
60.6
61.6
63.0
63.1
75.4
89.8
96 6
96 4
94.9
17.5
20.2
20.2
22.3
21.1
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
654 8
668.8
680.9
679.5
720.4
31 9
31.4
30.8
32.0
30.9
37.8
40.4
40.5
41.7
44.9
165.8
166.9
167.8
153.3
170.7
103.4
102.5
102.9
88.8
100.7
62.4
64.4
64.9
64.5
70.0
49.4
52.3
53.4
52.2
55.7
103.2
106.2
108.0
107.9
115.8
82.4
86.2
90.2
94.0
98.7
67.5
71.1
73.3
75.8
80.3
95 4
97.6
100.1
101.7
103.6
21.4
16.6
16.8
21.0
20.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
736.8
755.3
799.1
830.7
874.4
32.2
32.3
32.3
32.8
32.1
45.6
46.1
47.7
49,2
53.1
172.0
171.2
186.2
201.0
215.7
101.5
99.3
110.1
119.0
129.3
70.5
72.0
76.2
82.1
86.4
58.0
59.1
62.1
65.6
68.9
117.9
119.2
126.7
131.7
139.7
102.3
107.4
115.9
115.9
119.8
82.2
85.4
88.6
92.2
96.9
107.2
111.1
115.1
118.3
122.6
19.4
23.6
24.5
24.1
25.6
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
925.9
981.0
1,007.7
1,051.8
1,078.8
33.0
31.3
32.6
32.4
33.0
56.3
58.4
58.9
61.8
60.4
235.1
254.0
254.1
268.4
276.2
144.1
157.0
157.2
165.5
169.1
91.0
97.0
96.9
102.9
107.2
74.3
80.0
82.3
88.2
92.9
148.6
156.9
160.7
170.6
174.5
127.8
132.0
137.1
143.7
150.2
101.2
106.5
112.7
116.3
121.4
127.4
136.4
143.5
148.1
151.8
22.1
25.4
25.7
22.4
18.4
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974_.
1,075.3
1,107.5
1,171.1
1,235.0
1,214.0
34.3
36.1
35.4
35.9
35.6
56.2
56.1
56.6
57.2
51.6
260.6
264.1
288.8
313.0
296.8
154.4
155.3
171.9
188.9
176.2
106.2
108.7
116.8
124.1
120.6
95.1
97.3
103.6
112.6
112.4
178.4
186.8
201.2
212.0
207.2
153.7
161.7
168.6
172.3
173.9
124.7
126.6
134.5
143.1
143.1
152.0
153.1
154.9
157.3
159.8
20.4
25.7
27.7
31.6
33.6
1975
1,191.7
37.7
49.0
270.0
159.2
110.9
111.5
211.1
180.2
144.4
162.3
25.4
Year
ts
and
fisheries
Total
1
Mining, rest of world, and residual,.
measured as the sum of gross product by industry).
ucts less GNP in 1972 dollars
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
193
T A B L E B~6.—Gross national product by major type of product, 1929—76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Goods
Year
Gross
or
quar- national
product
Final
sales
Inventory
change
ter
Durable goods
Total
Nondurable goods
Final InvenFinal InvenFinal InvenTotal sales tory Total sales tory Total sales tory
change
change
change
Serv- Struc- Auto
ices tures output
1929.
103.4
101.7
1.7
56.1
54.4
1.7
17.5
16.1
1.4
38.6
38.3
0.3
35.9
11.4
1933.
55.8
57.4
-1.6
27.0
28.6 - 1 . 6
4.9
5.4
-.5
22.1
23.2 - 1 . 1
25.9
2.9
1939.
90.8
90.4
.4
49.0
48.6
.4
12.7
12.4
.3
36.3
36.2
.1
34.3
7.5
1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944.
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
100.0
124.9
158.3
192.0
210.5
212.3
209.6
232.8
259.1
258.0
97.8
120.4
156.5
192.5
211.5
213.4
203.2
233.2
254.4
261.1
2.2
4.5
1.8
-.6
56.0
72.5
93.7
120.4
132.3
128.9
125.3
139.8
154.4
147.7
53.8
2.2
68.0
4.5
91.9
1.8
121.0 - . 6
133.3 - 1 . 0
129.9 - 1 . 0
118.9
6.4
140.3 - . 5
149.7
4.7
150.1 - 3 . 1
16.6
26.8
35.5
54.2
57.9
48.9
37.2
45.8
47.6
46.2
15.4
1.2 39.4 38.4
1.0
23.8
3.1 45.6 44.2
1.4
34.5
1.0 58.1 57.4
.7
54.2
.0 66.2 66.8 - . 6
58.5 - . 6 74.4 74.8 - . 3
50.1 - 1 . 3 80.0 79.8
.2
31.8
5.3 88.1 87.1
1.1
44.1
1.7 94.0 96.2 - 2 . 2
46.9
.7 106.7 10^.8
4.0
48.3 - 2 . 1 101.5 102.5 - 1 . 0
35.7
40.6
50.6
62.9
72.2
76.9
68.6
71.3
76.7
81.9
8.3
11.8
14.0
8.7
6.1
6.5
15.7
21.7 "~7~3
28.0 8.9
28.4 12.0
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
286.2
330.2
347.2
i 66.1
366.3
399.3
420.7
442.8
448.9
486.5
279.4
319.9
344.0
365.7
367.8
393.3
416.0
441.4
450.4
481.2
162.4
189.5
194.6
203.1
196.1
214.5
223.3
232.3
228.2
247.4
155.6
6.8
179.2 10.3
191.5
3.1
202.7
.4
197. ( - 1 . 5
208.5
6.0
218.6
4.7
231.0
1.3
229.7 - 1 . 5
242.2
5.2
58.8
69.5
68.7
72.4
66.4
81.3
85.1
88.5
77.7
90.1
4.1 103.6 100.9
54.7
62.5
6.9 120.0 116.7
67.6
1.1 125.9 123.9
71.5
.9 130.8 131.2
69.0 - 2 . 5 129.6 128.7
78.2
3.C 133.2 130.3
82.3
2.8 138.1 136.3
87.3
1.3 143.7 143.7
80.5 - 2 . 8 150.5 149.2
87.4
2.7 157.4 154.8
2.7 88.2
3.4 102.9
2.0 113.1
5 121.0
i!o 125.7
2.9 135.3
1.9 145.2
.0 157.5
1.3 166.9
2.5 179.5
35.6 15.5
37.* 13.4
39.4 12.2
42.0 16.3
44.5 14.9
49.5 21.5
52.2 17.2
53.0 19.6
53.8 14.6
59.5 19.6
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966
1967.
1968.
1969.
506.0
523.3
563.8
594.7
635.7
688.1
753 0
796.3
868.5
935.5
502.2
521.1
557.3
588.8
629.9
678.6
738 7
786.2
860.8
926.2
7.7
9.4
254.3
256.5
278.0
289.7
309.0
336.6
373.9
387.3
418.9
446.2
250.6
254.3
271.5
283.7
303.2
327.1
359.6
377.2
411.2
436.8
3.8
2.2
6.5
6.0
5.8
9.5
14 3
10.1
7.7
9.4
91.5
90.0
102.0
108.0
118.9
133.6
149.1
148.7
162.4
175.3
2.4 162.8 161.4
89.1
90.2 - . 1 166.5 164.1
98.4
3.6 176.1 173.2
105.4
2.7 181.6 178.3
11!). 0 3.9 190.1 188.2
127.0
6.6 203.1 200.1
139.0 10.0 224.9 220.6
143.5
5.3 238.5 233.7
157.4
5.0 256.5 253.8
169.2
6.1 270.9 267.6
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975
1976?
3.8
982.4
978.6
, 063. 4 1,057.1
6.4
,171.1 1,161.7
9.4
, 306.6 , 288.6
17. S
,413.2 , 402.5
10.7
,516.3 ,531 0 - 1 4 t
,692.4 , 679.0
13. *
456.2
479.8
526.0
598.8
639.7
681.7
761.5
452.4
3.8
473.5
6.4
516.6
9.4
580.9 17.9
629.0 10.7
696.3 - 1 4 . 6
748.0 13.5
170.8
181.6
208.4
240.5
247.2
254.4
301.0
170.7
.0
179.8
1.8
202.1
6.3
229.6 10.9
240.2
7.1
266.5 - 1 2 . 1
297.4
3.5
285.4
298.3
317.7
358.3
392.4
427.3
460.5
1974:
1...
II...
III..
IV..
, 372. 7
, 399. 4
,431.6
, 449.2
650.4 643.0
652.5 642.8
12.6
13.0
7.3
9.7
238.9
242.8
252.6
254.7
232.3
240.6
247.6
240.2
6.6
2.2
5.1
14.5
-15.4
-15.3
-7.0
-10.6
-1.0
-1.0
6.4
-.5
4.7
-3.1
6.8
10. 3
3.1
.4
-1.5
, 360.0
, 386. 4
, 424.2
, 439.4
6.C
4.7
1.3
5.2
3.8
2.2
6.5
6.C
5.8
9.1
c
14
10.1
12. e 621.0 608.4
13. G 634.8 621.9
7.3
9.7
193.2 58.4
206.7 60.1
221.5 64.3
236.2 68.9
254.4 72.4
272.7 78.8
297.7 81 4
326.1 82.9
356.6 93.0
388.7 100.7
21.6
18.1
22.9
25.6
26.5
31.8
^1 1
28.8
36.6
36.8
281.7
3.7
293.7
4.6
314.5
3.2
351.3
7.0
388.9
3.6
429.8 -? 6
450.6
9.9
424.6
465.5
510.8
560.5
626.6
692.5
771.3
101.6
118.1
134.3
147.2
146.9
142 1
159.7
30.6
42.2
45.1
50.7
42.7
45 8
62.8
382.1
392.1
397.7
397.8
376.1
6.0
381.3 10.8
395.4
2.3
402.6 - 4 . 7
605.1
614.6
633.8
652.8
146.5
150.0
147.4
143.8
39.1
42.1
48.2
41.4
408.5
412.5
438.4
449.7
415.3 - 6 . 8
427.2 - 1 4 . 7
433.4
5.0
443.3
6.3
666.3
684.2
700.2
719.5
137.2
137.1
145.0
149.1
36.3
44.1
52.0
51.0
742.6
759.6
781.5
801.4
151.3
157.3
162.2
168.0
61.2
64.3
61.0
64.4
1.4
2.3
2.9
3.3
1.9
2.9
4.3
4.8
2.8
3.3
1975:
,446.2
II . . , 482. 3
ML. , 548. 7
IV.. , 588. 2
1
1976:
1...
II
III
IV*
,636.2
, 675. 2
, 703. 8
, 748. 5
, 468.4 - 2 2 . 2
,512.3 - 3 0 . C
, 550. 6 - 2 . C
, 592.5 - 4 . -
642.6
661.0
703.5
719.7
664.8
691.0
705.4
724.0
-22.2
-30.0
-2.0
-4.3
234.1
248.5
265.0
270.0
249.5
263.8
272.0
280.6
,621.4
, 659. 2
, 694. 7
,740.6
742.3
758.4
766.1
779.2
727.5
742.4
751.0
771.2
14.8
16.0
15.1
7.9
282.7
301.2
308.2
311.8
286.3 - 3 . 6 459.6 441.1
295.8
5.4 457.1 446.6
301.4
6.8 457.9 449.6
306.3
5.5 467.4 464.9
14.8
16.0
15.1
7.S
i
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
194
18.5
10.6
8.3
2.5
TABLE B-7.—Gross national product by major type qj product in 1972 dollars, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Goods
Year
Gross
or
quar- national
ter product
Final
sales
Total
nventory
hange
Final
Total sales
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
nvenFinal nvenFinal
tory Total sales tory Total sales
lange
hange
1929.
314.7
310.0
4.6
43.9
39.3
4.6
44.2 40.7
3.5 99.7
1933.
222.1
227.0
-4.9
97.2
02.1
-4.9
15.5 17.6
- 2 . 1 81.7
1939.
319.7
318.1
1.6
53.9
52.3
1.6
36.4 35.6
.7 17.5
1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944.
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
343.6
396.6
454.6
527.3
567.0
559.0
477.0
468.3
487.7
490.7
337.4
384.6
449.4
527.3
569.3
562.6
464.9
468.5
482.2
495.1
6.2
12.0
5.2
.1
-2.3
-3.6
12.2
-.2
5.5
-4.4
71.2
97.4
21.1
63.5
86.8
79.2
38.0
36.8
44.2
39.9
65.0
85.4
15.9
63.4
89.1
82.8
25.8
37.0
38.7
44.3
6.2 46.5 43.1
12.0 65.7 57.5
5.2 79.5 76.0
.1 119.9 19.3
- 2 . 3 134.1 35.9
- 3 . 6 118.2 21.9
12.2 71.3 60.5
- . 2 76.7 74.9
5.5 77.1 75.6
- 4 . 4 72.4 76.1
3.4
8.2
3.5
.7
-1.8
-3.7
10.8
1.8
1.5
-3.7
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
533.5
576.5
598.5
621.8
613.7
654.8
668.8
680.9
679.5
720.4
522.9
562.8
594.2
620.3
615.8
647.1
663.0
679.4
681.3
714.0
10.6
13.7
4.3
1.5
-2.2
7.7
5.8
1.5
-1.8
6.5
61.5
83.1
92.3
06.9
92.2
16.3
20.9
21.8
12.0
32.5
50.9
69.4
88.0
05.4
94.4
08.6
15.1
20.3
13.8
26.1
10.6
13.7
4.3
1.5
-2.2
7.7
5.8
1.5
-1.8
6.5
90.7
102.4
102.3
107.3
98.1
117.1
117.2
116.1
101.4
113.8
84.4
92.6
00.6
05.9
01.7
12.9
13.5
14.6
04.8
10.6
6.3
9.8
1.8
1.4
-3.6
4.2
3.7
1.5
-3.4
3.3
1960. 736.8
1961.
755.3
1962. 799.1
1963.
830.7
1964.
874.4
1965. 925.9
1966. 981.0
1967. ,007.7
1968. ,051.8
1969. ,078.8
732.4
752.4
791.0
823.0
867.1
914=6
964.3
995.7
,043.1
,068.2
4.4
2.9
8.1
7.8
7.3
11.3
16.7
12.0
8.7
10.6
37.1
38.1
62.0
73.0
94.0
21.5
455.6
461.9
481.1
492.3
32.8
35.2
53.8
65.2
86.7
10.2
38.9
49.9
72.4
81.7
4.4
2.9
8.1
7.8
7.3
11.3
16.7
12.0
8.7
10.6
114.4
112.5
125.5
131.8
144.2
160.6
177.1
173.0
181.3
190.1
11.6
12.6
21.1
28.4
39.2
52.6
65.2
66.6
75.7
83.3
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976 v
,075.3 ,071.0
4.3 483.4
,107.5 ,100.9
6.6 491.6
,171.1 ,161.7
9.4 526.0
, 235.0 ,218.5
16.5 569.0
1,214.0 1, 205. 5
8.5 552.9
1,191.7 1,203.7 -12.0 532.6
1,265.0 1, 255.9
9.1 576.3
1974:
1, 230.4 1,219.1
if" 1 220 8 1 211 4
i i i . 1,212.9 1, 207.8
IV. 1,191.7 1,183.7
1975
11.4
94
5.1
8.0
560.6
558 1
555.6
537.4
98.6
nventory
hange
Serv- Struc- Auto
ices tures output
1.1
26.8
84.5 - 2 . 8
10.9
14.0
16.7
.9
34.6
31.2
24.7
31.7
41.7
43.5
52.7
61.0
66.7
60.1
67.1
67.5
21.8
2.8
27.9
3.8
40.0
1.7
44.1 - . 6
53.2 - . 5
61.0
.1
65.3
1.3
62.1 - 2 . 0
63.1
4.0
68.2 - . 8
39.5
57.6
92.7
40.9
63.6
61.9
99.7
86.9
90.9
97.0
32.9
41.5
40.7
23.0
16.6
17.9
39.4
44.7
52.5
53.7
I2.~9
14.7
18.9
70.7
80.7
89.9
99.6
94.1
99.2
03.7
05.7
10.6
18.7
66.5
76.8
87.4
99.5
92.7
95.7
01.6
05.6
09.0
15.5
4.2
3.9
2.5
.1
1.4
3.5
2.1
.0
1.6
3.2
06.0
29.0
40.6
45.5
47.0
57.6
.67.2
279.3
285.6
298.0
66.0
64.4
65.6
69.4
74.5
80.9
80.7
79.9
81.9
89.9
24.0
20.4
18.4
23.9
22.9
31.3
24.4
25.8
20.0
24.7
2.9 22.7 21.2
j 25.6
22.7
4*. 4 36.5 32.7
3.4 41.1 36.8
5.0 49.9 47.5
8.0 61.0 57.7
11.9 78.5 73.7
6.4 88.9 283.3
5.6 99.8 296.7
6.8 02.2 298.4
1.5
3.0
3.7
4.3
2.3
3.3
4.8
5.6
3.2
3.7
310.7
325.5
339.9
354.0
372.2
389.1
410.2
432.7
449.9
465.4
89.0
91.7
97.2
03.8
08.1
15.3
115.2
113.1
120.9
121.1
26.8
22.6
27.5
30.3
31.1
37.4
36.7
33.5
40.6
40.0
44.0
479.1
4.3 179.2 79.1
484.9
6.6 183.4 81.5
516.6
9.4 208.4 202.1
552.5
16.5 236.5 225.9
544.4
8.5 224.1 218.6
544.7 -12,0 204.7 214.1
567.2
9.1 230.2 227.9
.1 304.2
1.8 308.2
6.2 317.7
10.6 332.5
5.5 328.8
- 9 . 4 327.9
2.3 346.1
300.0
4.2
303.4
4.8
314.5
3.2
326.6
5.9
325.8
3.0
330.6 - 2 . 7
339.4
6.8
477.2
491.1
510.8
531.1
545.0
556.6
578.6
114.6
124.9
134.3
134.8
116.1
102.4
110.0
32.5
42.1
45.1
50.6
40.0
39.7
50.2
228.4 222.4
224 3 222.8
226.3 222.7
217.4 206.8
6.1 332.2
1 5 333.7
3.7 329.3
10.7 319.9
326.8
5.3
325.9
7.8
1.4
327.9
322.6 - 2 . 6
545.7
54? 1
544.6
547.5
124.2
120.6
112.7
106.9
39.0
40.2
44.1
36.8
318.9 325.9 - 7 . 0 549.6
99.3
3.7 558.7 104.6
1.9 562.8 106.4
32.7
38.6
45.0
42.6
106.6
108.7
111.0
113.8
50.4
51.8
48.7
50.1
549.2
548 7
550.5
529.3
11.4
9 4
5.1
8.0
1,161.1 1,181.6 -20.5 512.2 532.7 -20.5 193.3 206.8 -13.
ii" 1,177.1 1,198.2 -21.2 522.5 543.7 -21.2 200. 211.9 -11.9 322.4 331.7 - 9 . 3 555.4 99.2
III. 1, 209. 3 1,210.2
IV. 1,219.2 1, 224. 7
1976
1..
II..
III.
IV*
1, 246.3
1,260.0
1,272.2
1,281.5
1,235.9
1, 248.8
1,262.0
1,276.8
-1.
-5.
10.
11.
10.
4.
546.0 547.0
549.9 555.4
569.5
576.0
579.1
580.8
559.1
564.8
568.9
576.2
-1.
-5.
10.
11.
10.
4.
212.
213.
216.8
220.7
-4.
-7.
333.9 330.2
336.6 334.7
221.
230.
234.
233.
224.3
226.7
230.0
230.5
-2.
3.
4.
3.
347.6
345.5
344.5
347.0
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
195
334.8
338.2
338.9
345.7
12.8
7.3
5.6
1.3
570.3
575.3
582.1
586.9
TABLE B-8.—Gross national product: Receipts and expenditures by major
economic groups, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars]
Government
Persons
Disposable personal
income
Year or
quarter
Total i
Less:
Interest
paid
and
transfers 2
Net receipts
Expenditures
Surplus
or
Perdeficit
PerEquals: sonal sonal
Tax
Less:
Less: Equals: (-),
Total
conTrans- Purand Transnaexclud- sump- saving nonfers, Equals: Total fers, chases tional
or
ing in
tion
interNet
extax
interof
indisterest
exrependi- est,
reest,
goods
come
paid pendi- saving
and
ceipts tures
ceipts and
and
and
(-)
and
tures
subor ac- subservprodtranssidies3
cruals sidies3
ices
uct acfers
counts
82.3
1.9
80.4
77.3
3.1
11.3
1.5
9.8
10.3
1.5
8.8
1.0
1933
45.5
.7
44.8
45.8 - 1 . 0
9.3
2.5
6.9
10.7
2.5
8.2
-1.4
1939
69.9
.9
69.1
67.0
2.1
15.4
4.1
11.3
17.6
4.1
13.5
-2.2
75.2
92.0
116.5
132.9
145.5
149.0
158.6
168.4
187.4
187.1
1.0
1.1
.8
.7
.8
.9
1.4
1.7
2.1
2.3
74.3
91.0
115.6
132.1
144.6
148.0
157.3
166.7
185.3
184.9
71.0
80.8
88.6
99.4
108.2
119.5
143.8
161.7
174.7
178.1
33
10.2
27.0
32.7
36 5
28.5
13.4
4.9
10.6
6.7
17.7
25.0
32.6
49.2
51.2
53.2
51.0
56.9
58.9
55.9
4.3
3.8
4.2
4.4
6.0
9.9
18.0
17.1
18.5
20.9
13.5
21.2
28.4
44.7
45.2
43.3
33.0
39.9
40.4
35.0
18.4
28.8
64.0
93.3
103.0
92.7
45.6
42.5
50.5
59.3
4.3
3.8
4.2
4.4
6.0
9.9
18.0
17.1
18.5
20.9
14.2
24.9
59.8
88.9
97.0
82.8
27.5
25.5
32.0
38.4
1
-3.8
-31.4
-44.1
-51.8
-39.5
5.4
14.4
8.4
-3.4
205.5
224.8
236.4
250.7
255.7
273.4
291.3
306.9
317.1
336.1
2.7
2.9
3.3
4.0
4.3
4.8
5.6
5.9
6.0
6.5
202.8
221.9
233.1
246.6
251.4
268.6
285.7
301.0
311.1
329.6
192.0
207.1
217.1
229.7
235.8
253.7
266.0
280.4
289.5
310.8
10.8
14.8
16.0
17.0
15.6
14.9
19.7
20.6
21.7
18.8
69.0
85.2
90.1
94.6
89.9
101.1
109.7
116.2
115.0
129.4
22.5
19.1
18.3
19.0
21.3
23.0
25.1
28.2
32.6
33.4
46.5
66.2
71.8
75.6
68.6
78.1
84.6
88.0
82.4
96.0
61.0
79.2
93.9
101.6
97.0
98.0
104.5
115.3
127.6
131.0
22.5
19.1
18.3
19.0
21.3
23.0
25.1
28.2
32.6
33.4
38.5
60.1
75.6
82.5
75.8
75.0
79.4
87.1
95.0
97.6
8.0
6.1
-3.8
-6.9
-7.1
3.1
5.2
.9
-12.6
-1.6
349.4
362.9
383.9
402.8
437.0
472.2
510.4
544.5
588.1
630.4
7.4
7.7
8.3
9.4
10.5
11.7
12.6
13.3
14.1
15.6
342.0
355.2
375.6
393.4
426.5
460.4
497.8
531.2
574.0
614.8
324.9
335.0
355.2
374.6
400.4
430.2
464.8
490.4
535.9
579.7
17.1
20.2
20.4
18.8
26.1
30.3
33.0
40.9
38.1
35.1
139.5
144.8
156.7
168.5
174.0
188.3
212.3
228.2
263.4
296.3
36.1
40.9
42.4
44.1
46.5
49.5
54.9
62.2
70.2
77.8
103.4
103.9
114.3
124.4
127.5
138.9
157.4
166.0
193.2
218.5
136.4
149.1
160.5
167.8
176.3
187.8
213.6
242.4
268.9
285.6
36.1
40.9
42.4
44.1
46.5
49.5
54.9
62.2
70.2
77.8
100.3
108.2
118.0
123.7
129.8
138.4
158.7
180.2
198.7
207.9
3.1
-4.3
-3.8
.7
-2.3
.5
-1.3
-14.2
-5.5
10.7
618.8
669.4
16.6
17.3
725.5
668.2
782.4
733.0
18.9
21.5
880.2
809.9
959.7
887.5
23.2
973.2
23.7 1,057.2
25.4 1,156.3 1, 078.6
50.6
57.3
49.4
70.3
72.2
84.0
77.8
302.6
322.2
367.4
411.2
454.6
466.4
530.8
93.1
106.8
117.8
135.4
155.6
191.8
209.5
209.5
215.5
249.6
275.8
299.0
274.6
321.3
311.9
340.5
370.9
404.9
458.8
530.8
575.3
93.1
106.8
117.8
135.4
155.6
191.8
209.5
218.9
233.7
253.1
269.5
303.3
339.0
365.8
-9.4
-18.3
-3.5
6.3
-4.2
-64.4
-44.5
1929.
.
1940
1941
1942...
1943
1944
1945
1946 . .
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953 .
1954
1955
1956...
1957
1958..
1959 . .
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965...
1966
1967 .
1968
1969 .
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 v
.
..
.
685.9
742.8
801.3
901.7
982.9
1, 080.9
1,181.8
See footnotes at end of table.
196
TABLE B-8.—Gross national product: Receipts and expenditures by major
economic groups, 1929-76—Continued
[Billions of dollars]
Business
Year
or
quarter
Gross
retained
earnings*
International
Net
Gross Excess transpri- of earn- fers and
vate ings or interest
doof inmestic vest- paid to
forinvest- ment
8
eigners
ment
Net exports of goods
and services
Exports
Less:
Imports
Excess
of
net
transfers
and
Equals: interNet
est
exor of
ports net exports
Total
income
or receipts
Statistical
discrepancy
Gross
national
product
or expenditure
l-V
11.7
16.2
-4.4
0.4
7.0
5.9
3.2
1.4
1.8
.2
2.4
2.0
8.8
9.3
-.5
.2
4.4
3.4
1940
1941
1942 . . .
1943
1944
1945
1946. . . .
1947
1948
1949 . . . .
10.9
12.0
14.8
16.7
17.7
16.0
15.8
21.8
30.0
31.4
13.1
17.9
9.9
5.8
7.2
10.6
30.7
34.0
45.9
35.3
-2.2
-5.8
4.9
10.9
10.5
5.4
-14 9
-12.1
-15.8
-3.8
.2
.2
5.4
5.9
4.8
4.4
5.3
7.2
14.8
19.8
16.9
15.9
3.6
4.6
4.8
6.5
7.1
7.8
7.2
8.2
10.4
9.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
30.8
34.6
37.1
38.0
41.0
47.5
48.7
51.1
51.3
58.5
53.8
59.2
52.1
53.3
52.7
68.4
71.0
69.2
61.9
77.6
-23.0
-24 6
-15.1
-15.3
-11.7
-20.8
-22.3
-18 1
-10.6
-19.0
4.0
3.5
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
13.9
18.9
18.2
17.1
18.0
20.0
23.9
26.7
23.3
23.7
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
58.7
59.8
67.0
70.1
76.2
84.6
91.2
93.7
98.2
101.7
76.4
74.3
85.2
90.2
96.6
112.0
124.5
120.8
131.5
146.2
-17.7
-14.5
-18 2
-20.1
-20.4
-27.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
-27.1
-33.3
-44.5
3.7
3.6
3.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 P. .
101.4
115.7
131.0
140.2
139.4
171.6
198.6
140.8
160.0
188.3
220.0
215.0
183.7
241.2
-39.5
-44.3
-57.3
4.3
5.5
1929
1933
. .
1939
. .
—33 3
-79.8
-75.6
-12.1
-42.6
\l
.3
.8
2 9
2.6
4.5
5.6
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
103.4
1.1
-0.7
102.3
1.1
.4
-.2
55.1
.7
55.8
1.1
-.9
89.4
1.4
90.8
1.7
1.3
.0
-2.0
-1.8
-.6
7 6
11.6
6.5
6.2
-1.5
-1.1
98.9
124.3
159.1
193.8
207.8
208.2
208 9
231.0
260.3
257.0
1.1
100.0
124.9
158.3
192.0
210.5
212.3
209.6
232.8
259.1
258.0
12.0
15.1
15.8
16.6
16.0
17.8
19.6
20.7
20.8
23.2
1.9
3.8
2.4
.6
2.0
2.2
4.3
6 1
2.1
-.3
27.6
28.9
30.6
32.7
37.4
39.5
42.8
45.6
49.9
54.7
23.2
23.1
25.2
26.4
28.4
32.0
37.7
40.6
47.7
52.9
4.4
5.8
5.4
6.3
8.9
7.6
5.1
4.9
62.5
65.6
72.7
58.5
64.0
75.9
94.4
6.5
7.7
8.5
8.5
101.6
144.4
148.1
8.6
161.9
136.9
127.6
155.1
2.5
.6
2.3
1.8
3.9
1.6
2.2
2.1
1.4
-4 6
-9.0
-2.0
-.6
l'.9
.3
.3
-1.8
-3.6
-.1
2.0
-1.7
-3.0
-2.4
-3.2
-5.7
-4.3
—1.6
-1.2
1.4
2.0
.3
3.9
-3.3
9.8
.6
7.1
7.5
1.0
20.5 - 1 1 . 9
6.9
1.7
-is
-1.8
2.7
4.1
7
1.8
-1.2
1.0
284.1
326 2
344.5
362.8
363.3
396.8
421.5
442 6
447.2
486.7
2.0
4 0
2.7
3.3
3.0
2.5
-.8
.2
506.7
521.7
559 8
591.0
633.5
687.2
749 8
794.6
869.1
938.8
-.7
1.6
4.0
984.5
1,062.1
1,169.4
1,303.9
1,406.6
1,511.9
1, 684. 8
1.7
3.7
2.2
.9
3 2
1.7
-.6
-3.3
-2.1
1.3
1.7
2.6
6.6
4.4
7.6
286.2
330.2
347.2
366.1
366.3
399.3
420.7
442.8
448.9
486.5
506.0
523.3
563.8
594.7
635.7
688.1
753.0
796.3
868.5
935.5
982.4
1,063.4
1,171.1
1,306.6
1,413.2
1,516.3
1, 692.4
1 Personal income less personal tax and nontax payments (fines, penalties, etc.).
2
Interest paid by consumers to business and net personal transfer payments to foreigners.
3 Government transfer payments to persons and foreigners, net interest paid by government, subsidies less current
surplus of government enterprises, and disbursements less wage accruals.
4
Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment, corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
undistributed corporate profits with capital consumption adjustment, and private wage accruals less disbursements.
s Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions, and residential housing
and equipment. See Table B-14.
« Net transfers to foreigners by persons and government and interest paid by government to foreigners.
* Capital grants received by the United States (net) less net foreign investment.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
197
TABLE B-9.—Gross national product by sector, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross domestic product
Business
Gross
Year or quarter national
product
Total
Total
Nonfarm x
Government 2
StatisFarm tical
discrepancy
Households
and
institutions
Total
Federal
State
and
local
Rest
of the
world
Percent
change
from
preceding
period,
gross
domestic
products
1929
103.4
102.6
95.4
84.7
9.7
1.1
2.9
4.3
0.9
3.5
0.8
1933
55.8
55.5
49.1
43.8
4.6
.7
1.7
4.7
1.2
3.5
.3
90.8
90.5
80.6
72.9
6.3
1.4
2.3
7.6
3.4
4.2
.3
7.0
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944.
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
100.0
124.9
158.3
192.0
210.5
212.3
209.6
232 8
259.1
258.0
99.6
124.5
157.9
191.6
210.1
212.0
209.0
231.8
257.9
256.9
89.4
112.6
139.9
162.8
174.2
172.8
183.8
210.0
234.9
231.5
81.8
103.1
127.7
149.3
156.2
152.7
164.2
188 0
212.7
211.7
6.5
1.1
.5
8.9
13.0 - . 8
15.3 - 1 . 8
2.7
15.3
4.1
16.0
.7
18.9
1.8
20.2
23.3 - 1 . 2
1.0
18.8
2.4
2.5
2.9
3.2
3.7
4.1
4.5
5.1
5.6
5.9
7.8
9.4
15.1
25.6
32.2
35.2
20.8
16.7
17.4
19.4
3.5
5.0
10.6
20.9
27.2
29.8
14.6
9.4
8.9
10.0
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.4
6.2
7.3
8.5
9.4
.4
.4
.4
.3
.4
.3
.5
.9
1.2
1.1
10.1
25.0
26.8
21.4
9.6
.9
-1.4
10 9
11.3
-.4
1950..
1951....
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958 . . . .
1959
286.2
330.2
347 2
366.1
3b6.3
399 3
420.7
442.8
448.9
486.5
284.8
328.7
345.7
364.6
364.5
397.3
418.5
440.5
446.6
484.0
257.5
294.4
307 3
324.9
323.9
354 0
372.1
390.8
393.1
427.7
235.5
267.4
282 5
301.2
301.3
332 8
354.3
372.3
370.7
408.9
20.0
22.9
22.2
20.3
19.6
18.8
18.6
18.4
20.7
19.1
2.0
4.0
2.7
3.3
3.0
2.5
-.8
.2
1.7
-.2
6.4
6.9
7.2
7.8
8.1
9 1
9.8
10.5
11.4
12.3
20.9
27.4
31.2
31.9
32.5
34.2
36.6
39.1
42.1
44.0
10.7
16.2
18 9
18.6
17.8
18.4
19.0
19.6
20.5
20.9
10.1
11.2
12.3
13.3
14.7
15.8
17.6
19.6
21.6
23.1
1.3
1.5
1 5
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.4
10.9
15.4
52
5.5
-.0
90
5.3
5.2
1.4
8.4
506.0
523.3
563.8
594.7
635.7
688.1
753.0
796.3
868.5
935.5
503.5
520.2
560.2
591.1
631.4
683.4
748.8
791.8
863.7
931.1
442.5
455 3
490.4
516.5
550.7
596.6
651 1
682.7
742 2
798.1
423.0
433 4
465.9
492.2
529.2
573.8
625 0
658.8
720 2
776.2
20.2 - . 7
20.2
1.6
20.5
4.0
20.5
3.7
19.3
2.2
22.0
.9
22.9
3.2
1.7
22.2
22.6 - . 6
25.2 - 3 . 3
13.8
14.4
15.5
16.6
17.8
19.2
21 1
23.9
26 4
29.2
47.1
50.5
54.3
58.0
62.9
67.6
76.5
85.1
95.2
103.7
21.7
22.6
24.1
25.2
27.0
28.3
32.4
35.6
39.3
41.8
25.5
27.9
30.2
32.9
35.9
39.3
44.1
49.5
55.9
61.9
2.5
3.1
3.6
3.7
4.3
4.7
4.2
4.6
4.8
4.5
4.0
33
7.7
5.5
6.8
8.2
96
5.7
9.1
7.8
977.8
1939.
.
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
.
.
.
.
.
. 1, 063.4 1,056.8
-4.1
1 171 1
1,306.6
1,413.2
1,516.3
1, 692.4
1,164.1
1,297.5
1,398.7
1, 505.7
1, 679.1
831.5
8%. 9
989 5
1,108.0
1,192 4
1,277.5
1,428.4
807.6
867.9
955 8
1,055.3
1 137.3
1, 222.8
1,370.0
25.9 - 2 . 1
27.7
1.3
32 0 1 7
2.6
50.1
48.5
6.6
50.3
4.4
7.6
50.8
31.6
34.7
37 2
40.5
44.7
49.7
55.9
114.7
125.2
137 4
149.1
161.6
178.5
194.8
44.7
46.8
50 1
51.9
54.9
59.3
63.4
70.0
78.5
87 3
97.1
106.7
119.2
131.4
4.6
6.6
7.0
9.1
14.5
10.6
13.3
5.0
8.1
10.1
11.5
7.8
7.7
11.5
III
IV
1,372.7
1,399.4
1,431.6
1, 449.2
1, 355.5
1,387.0
1,417.8
1,434.4
1,156.1
1,183.8
1,209.6
1,219.9
1,100.6
1,130.1
1,155.1
1,163.4
53.1
46.6
46.9
47.2
?4
7.1
7.7
9.3
42.7
44.0
45.7
46.4
156.7
159.2
162.5
168.1
53.7
54.0
54.6
57.4
102.9
105.2
107.9
110.7
17.2
12.4
13.8
14.8
3.1
9.6
9.2
4.8
1975: 1
II
III
IV
1, 446.2
1,482.3
1, 548.7
1,588.2
1,436.7
1,471.7
1, 537.4
1,577.1
1,216.3
1,246.4
1,306.8
1,340.4
1,167.4
1,197.4
1, 246. 7
1,279.6
42.5
49.0
55.0
54.8
6.4
.1
5.1
6.1
48.1
49.0
50.4
51.5
172.4
176.3
180.1
185.2
58.2
58.4
59.1
61.5
114.2
117.9
121.1
123.7
9.4
10.6
11.3
11.1
.7
10.1
19.1
10.8
1976: 1
II
III
IV V
1,636.2
1,675.2
1,709.8
1, 748. 5
1,623.2
1,662.8
1,696.1
1,734.3
1,380.7 1,324.8
1,415.5 1, 354.7
1,443.1 1,384.4
1, 474.2
48.7
55.0
50.0
49 4
7.2
5.8
8.7
53.3
54.8
57.0
58.6
189.2
192.5
196.0
201.4
62.2
62.5
63.2
65.6
127.0
130.0
132.8
135.8
13.0
12.4
13.7
14.2
12.2
10.1
8.2
9.3
982.4
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 v
1974: 1
II
1 Includes compensation of employees in government enterprises.
Compensation of government employees.
Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from those obtained from data shown here.
See table B-l for percent changes in gross national product.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2
3
198
TABLE B-10.—Gross national product by sector in 1972 dollars, 1929-76
[Billions of 1972 dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross domestic product
Gross
Year or quarter national
product
Total
Total
Percent
change
from
Business
Governments
Rest precedHouseing
of the
holds
world period,
and
gross
State
Resid- instiNonFed- and
domestic
farm * Farm ual 2 tutions Total eral local
product*
1929
314.7
312.8
271.1
244.2
23.8
3.1
15.6
26.1
5.2
20.9
1.9
1933
222.1
220.5
179.7
152.1
25.0
2.6
12.2
28.7
6.6
22.0
1.6
-2.1
1939
319.7
318.6
261.5
231.6
25.3
4.7
15.1
42.0
16.9
25.1
1.2
7.7
1940...
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945 .
1946
1947
1948
1949 .
343.6
396.6
454.6
527.3
567.0
559.0
477.0
468.3
487.7
490.7
342.3
395.4
453.5
526.4
566.0
558.1
475.9
466.7
485.9
488.8
282.4
324.4
355.3
381.9
401.9
396.9
385.1
392.8
411.2
409.4
254.1
297.2
330.3
360.6
371.2
365.3
362.3
370.8
387.2
382.1
24.7
26.3
28.7
27.8
27.3
25.8
25.8
23.9
25.7
25.5
3.6
.9
-3.8
-6.6
3.5
5.8
-3.0
-1.9
-1.7
1.8
16.1 43.9 18.6
15.9 55.1 29.6
16.4 81.8 56.7
15.2 129.3 105.0
15.1 149.0 125.2
15.0 146.2 121.8
15.1 75.8 49.7
16.0 57.9 29.8
16 7 58.0 29.2
17.3 62.2 31.3
25.3
25.5
25.0
24.4
23.8
24.5
26 1
28.1
28 8
30.9
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
.8
1.1
1.6
18
1.9
7.5
15.5
14.7
16.1
7.5
-1.4
-14.7
-1.9
41
.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
533.5
576.5
598.5
621.8
613.7
654.8
668.8
680.9
679.5
720.4
531.5
574.7
596.7
619.9
611.4
652.2
666.1
678.0
676.5
717.3
448.6
477.2
492.8
515.6
508.0
546.5
557.2
566.0
561.9
600.5
417.9
445.9
460.7
480.6
473.4
512.5
529.3
538.7
528.2
569.6
26.9
25.8
26.3
27.6
28.3
29.2
28.8
28.1
29.3
28.2
3.8
5.5
5.7
7.3
6.2
4.8
-.9
-.8
4.4
2.7
18.3
18.7
18.6
19.3
19.4
21.4
22.5
23.1
24.2
24.9
64.6
78.8
85.3
85.0
83.9
84.4
86.5
88.9
90.4
91.8
32.7
46.2
51.6
49.6
47.2
45.9
45.6
45.8
44.5
44.5
31 9
32.6
33 7
35.5
36.7
38.4
40.8
43.1
45.8
47.3
1.9
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.2
8.7
8.1
3.8
3.9
-1.4
6.7
2.1
1.8
-.2
6.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
733.6
736.8
751.2
755.3
799.1
794.3
825.8
830.7
868.7
874.4
925.9
919.9
975.6
981.0
1, 007. 7 1,001.9
1,051.8 1,045.7
1, 078.8 1, 073.1
611.8
625.6
663.9
692.0
730.4
776 4
822.4
839.8
878.2
901.5
580.5
590.9
629.6
658.4
697.1
746.7
791.1
807.8
850.6
877.4
29.5
1.8
29.6
5.1
29.5
4.8
30.0
3.6
29.2
4.0
30.1 - . 4
2.8
28.5
29.6
2.4
29.4 - 1 . 8
29.9 - 5 . 9
26.8
27.2
28.3
29.0
29.9
31.1
32.8
34.8
35.9
36.6
94.9
98.5
102.1
104.8
108.4
112.4
120.4
127.2
131.7
135.0
45.2
46.2
48.3
48.2
48.5
48.7
53.0
57.2
58.1
58.2
49.7
52.3
53.9
56 6
60.0
63 6
67 5
70.0
73 6
76.8
3.2
4.1
4.8
4.9
5.7
6.1
5.4
5.8
6.1
5.7
2.3
2.4
5.7
4.0
5.2
5.9
6.1
2.7
4.4
2.6
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974 . .
1975
1976 ^
1,075.3
1,107.5
1,171.1
1,235.0
1,214.0
1,191.7
1,265.0
1,069.8
1,100.3
1,164.1
1,227.4
1,206.9
1,186.8
1, 259.1
871.3
898.3
894.9
927.6
989.5
955.8
1,050.4 1,013.2
1,027.3
987.7
1, 004.1
968.1
1,072.0 1, 033.9
31.1 - 4 . 2
32.8 - . 1
32.0
1.7
32.3
4.9
32.0
7.5
34.1
1.8
35.2
3.0
36.3
36.6
37.2
38.1
38.2
38.5
40.7
135.2
136.0
137.4
138.9
141.5
144.2
146.3
55.2
52.5
50.1
48.3
48.4
48.2
48.1
80.1
83.5
87.3
90.6
93.1
96.0
98.2
5.5
7.2
7.0
7.6
7.0
4.8
5.9
-.3
2.8
5.8
5.4
-1.7
-1.7
6.1
1974' 1
II
Ill
IV
1,230.4
1, 220.8
1,212.9
1,191.7
1,219.8
1,215.3
1, 207.3
1,185.3
1,040.9 1,005.6
1,036.0
994.6
1, 027.0
986.6
1, 005.0
964.1
30.6
32.8
32.2
32.5
4.7
8.6
8.3
8.4
38.2
38.1
38.5
37.9
140.7
141.1
141.9
142.4
48.4
48.3
48.4
48.4
92.3
92.8
93.4
94.0
10.7
5.5
5.6
6.4
-4.9
-1.5
-2.6
-7.1
1975- 1
II . .
III
IV
1,161.1
1,177.1
1,209.3
1,219.2
975.6
1,157.0
1,172.2
989.9
1,204.0 1,020.8
1, 214.1 1,030.2
4.9
31.8
34.6 - 1 . 3
36.0
1.8
34.2
1.9
38.3
38.4
38.5
38.8
143.1
143.9
144.7
145.1
48.4
48.2
48.2
48.1
94 7
95.7
96.5
97.0
4.1
4.8
5.3
5.1
-9.2
5.4
11.3
3.4
1976: 1
II
III
IV v
1,246.3
1,260.0
1,272.2
1,281.5
1,240.4
1,254.3
1, 266.2
1,275.3
34.3
34.9
35.0
36.4
39.8
40.4
41.5
41.4
145.5
146.0
146.6
147.0
48.1
48.0
48.1
48.1
97.4
97.9
98.4
98.9
5.9
5.6
6.0
6.2
9.0
4.6
3.8
2.9
1,055.1
1,068.0
1,078.2
1,086.9
938.8
956.6
983.0
994.1
1,018.0
1,031.5
1,039.4
1,046.7
2.8
1.6
3.8
3.8
1 Includes compensation of employees in government enterprises.
2 The difference between gross product in 1972 dollars measured as the sum of final products and that measured as the
sum of gross product by industry.
3 Compensation of government employees.
* Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ from those obtained from data shown here. See Table
B-2 for percent changes in gross national product in 1972 dollars.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
199
TABLE B-ll.—Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Year
or
quarter
Gross
domestic
product
of
nonfinancial
corporate
business
CapNet domestic product
J4.nl
nai
Domestic income
consumpCorporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
tion
consumption adjustments
allowances
ComIndiProfits before tax
with
penrect
Inven- Capicapi- Total busisation
tal
Net
Profits after tax
tal
ness Total
of
tory
con- intervalu- sump- est
conem- Total
Profits
taxes i
ation tion
sumpploytax
Total liabilUndis- adtion
ees
adDivi- tribu- just- justadity Total dends ted
ment ment
justprofits
ment
1929
50.1
5.4
44.7
3.4
41.3
32.3
7.6
8.4
1.2
7.3
1933....
24.4
4.2
20.2
3.8
16.4
16.7 - 2 . 0
.6
.5
.1
1939....
43.7
4.7
39.1
5.1
34.0
28.2
4.3
6.1
1.4
4.7
1940....
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946....
1947....
1948....
1949....
50.4
65.6
82.9
98.7
102.1
95.3
99.3
120.0
137.3
133.5
4.8 45.6
5.3 60.4
6.0 77.0
6.1 92.6
6.2 95.9
6.4 88.9
7.3 92.1
9.1 110.9
10.7 126.5
11.6 121.9
5.5 40.1
6.4 53.9
6.8 70.1
7.3 85.3
8.1 87.8
8.9 80.0
10.1 81.9
11.2 99.8
12.1 114.4
12.6 109.3
31.2
39.8
51.0
62.2
65.1
61.9
67.2
79.1
87.8
85.3
7.5
12.8
17.9
22.0
21.7
17.2
14.1
19.9
25.8
23.0
8.8
16.4
20.1
23.6
22.2
17.8
22.0
29.1
31.8
24.9
2.7
7.5
11.2
13.8
12.6
10.2
8.6
10.8
11.8
9.3
1950
1951
1952
1953....
1954....
1955....
1956....
1957....
1958
1959....
151.9
174.5
182.3
195.0
191.9
216.7
231.6
242.3
236.3
265.7
12.6
14.6
15.7
17.0
17.9
19.2
21.5
23.7
24.9
26.0
139.3
159.9
166.7
178.1
174.1
197.5
210.1
218.5
211.4
239.7
14.1
15.2
16.8
18.2
17.4
19.2
20.8
22.4
22.8
25.4
125.2
144.7
149.8
159.9
156.6
178.3
189.2
196.2
188.6
214.4
94.7
110.2
118.3
128.7
126.5
138.5
L51.4
159.1
155.9
171.6
29.6
33.4
30.3
29.9
28.6
38.2
36.1
35.0
30.1
39.7
38.5
39.1
33.8
34.9
32.1
42.0
41.8
39.8
33.7
43.1
I960....
1961
1962....
1963....
1964....
1965....
1966
1967....
1968
1969....
277.3
284.5
311.0
330.9
357.6
392.1
430.7
452.9
498.4
541.8
27.0
27.8
28.7
29.8
31.0
32.8
35.7
39.3
43.0
47.8
250.3
256.7
282.3
301.1
326.6
359.3
394.9
413.6
455.4
494.0
28.3
30.1
33.0
35.6
38.4
41.1
42.9
45.8
51.6
57.1
222.0
226.5
249.2
265.6
288.3
318.2
352.0
367.9
403.8
437.0
181.1
185.1
199.8
210.7
226.3
246.1
273.5
291.9
321.6
357.4
37.4
37.4
44.9
50.0
56.7
66.1
71.2
67.2
72.1
66.4
1970....
1971....
1972....
1973....
1974....
1975....
1976 *__.
560.6
602.5
671.0
752.0
810.0
870.4
982.6
53.1
58.2
62.6
68.7
80.8
96.6
07.9
507.5 61.8
544.2 68.2
608.4 73.5
683.3 80.5
729.3 86.1
773.8 93.4
874.8 100.5
445.7
476.0
534.8
602.8
643.2
680.4
774.2
787.9
821 5
823.3
75.2
78.7
82 6
86.6
712.8
728.7
738 9
736.6
83.0
85.6
87 9
87.7
822.3
851.1
892.0
916.1
90.9
95.0
98.7
01.9
731.5
756.1
793.3
814.2
88.4
92.0
95.6
97.5
5.2
1.4
2.0
0.5
2.0 - 1 . 9
-2.1
-1.3
5
3.3
1.4
-.7
-1.0
1.5
6.1
9.0
8.9
9.8
9.6
7.6
13.4
18.3
20.0
15.6
3.6
4.0
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.2
5.1
5.9
6.5
6.5
2.5
4.9
5.1
5.7
5.4
3.4
8.3
12.4
13.5
9.1
-.2
-2.5
-1.2
-.8
-.3
-.6
-5.3
-5.9
-2.2
1.9
-1.1
-1.1
-1.0
-.8
-.2
-. 1
-2.7
-3.3
-3.9
-3.8
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.0
.7
.8
.9
1.0
16.9
21.2
17.8
18.5
15.6
20.2
20.1
19.1
16.2
20.7
21.6
17.9
16.0
16.4
16.4
21.8
21.8
20.7
17.5
22.3
7.9
7.8
7.8
8.0
8.2
9.4
10.1
10.4
10.2
10.8
13.6
10.1
8.1
8.4
8.2
12.4
11.6
10.3
7.3
11.5
-5.0
-1.2
1.0
-1.0
-.3
-1.7
-2.7
-1.5
-.3
-.5
-3.9
-4.5
-4.4
-4.0
-3.2
-2.1
-3.0
-3.3
-3.4
-2.9
.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.7
2.2
2.7
3.1
39.5
39.2
43.7
48.3
54.6
64.4
69.5
65.4
71.9
68.4
19.2
19.5
20.6
22.8
24.0
27.2
29.5
27.7
33.6
33.3
20.3
19.7
23.1
25.5
30.7
37.2
40.0
37.7
38.3
35.1
11.5
11.7
12.7
14.1
15.3
17.2
18.1
18.9
20.7
20.7
8.7
8.0
10.3
11.4
15.4
20.0
21.9
18.8
17.6
14.4
.3
.1
.1
-.2
-.5
-1.9
-2.1
-1.7
-3.4
-5.5
-2.3
-1.8
1.0
1.9
2.6
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.9
4.5
4.8
5.3
6.1
7.4
8.7
10.1
13.1
377.1
399.4
443.8
503.8
554.7
577.1
641.5
51.6 55.1
58.7 63.3
72.0 75.9
76.0 92.7
59.6 102.3
72.5 95.5
97.0 127.2
27.3
29.9
33.5
39.6
42.6
39.7
52.1
27.9
33.3
42.4
53.1
59.8
55.8
75.1
19.9
20.0
21.7
23.9
30.4
29.0
32.0
8.0
13.3
20.7
29.2
29.4
26.7
43.1
1.5
-5.1
-5.0
.5
-6.6
2.7
-18.6
1.8
-39.8 - 3 . 0
-11.4 -11.6
-14.6 -15.6
17.0
17.9
19.1
23.1
29.0
30.8
35.8
629.8
643.1
651 0
649.0
536.6
549.9
564 3
568.0
66.3 96.9
64.9 103.4
57 0 113.9
50.1 95.1
40.6
43.3
47 5
39.0
56.4
60.2
66.4
56.1
26.9
33.2
33.2
28.1
29.5
26.9
33.2
28.0
-30.4
-36.6
-53.4
-38.8
-.3
-1.9
-3.5
-6.3
26.8
28.4
?9 7
30.9
643.1
664.2
697.7
716.7
563.4
566.2
580.3
598.5
49.6 74.8
67.8 87.0
86.6 108.3
86.1 112.0
30.2
35.4
45.8
47.6
44.5
51.7
62.5
64.4
29.5
29.0
29.1
28.6
15.0 - 1 6 . 5 - 8 . 6
22.7 - 7 . 8 -11.4
33.4 - 9 . 0 -12.7
35.9 - 1 2 . 3 -13.6
30.0
30.2
30.8
32.0
97.4 747.4 620.3 93.2 119.4
99.7 766.4 635.4 95.7 125.6
III.— 993.8 108.9 885.0 101.2 783.7 646.9 100.3 128.6
51.1
53.4
54.7
68.3
72.2
73.9
28.2
31.9
32.9
40.1 - 1 1 . 5 -14.7
40.3 -14.4 -15.5
41.0 -12.6 -15.7
33.9
35.2
36.5
1974:
i f . " " 807.5
Ill
IV
1975:
1
II
III....
IV
1976:
949.0 104.2 844.8
i f . " " 972.8 106.8 866.1
1
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
200
1.7
TABLE B-12.—Output, costs, and profits of nonjinancial corporate business, 1948-76
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross domestic
product of
nonfinancial
corporate
business
(billions of
dollars)
Year or
quarter
Cur1972
rent
dollars dollars
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars
Total
cost
and
profit2
Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
ComInpendirect sation
Net
busiinof
ness
terest
emtaxes 3 ployees
Corporate profits with
inventory valuation
and capital
consumption adjustments
Total
Output Compenper
sation
hour of
per
all em- hour of
ployees all em(1972
ployees
dollars) (dollars)
Profits Profits
tax
after
liability tax <
137.3
133.5
229.7
219.9
0.598
.607
0.047
.053
0.053
.057
0.382
.388
0.004
.004
0.112
.105
0.051
.042
0.061
.062
151.9
174.5
182.3
195.0
191.9
247.5
270.2
275.2
292.0
283.5
.614
.646
.663
.668
.677
.051
.054
.057
.058
.063
.057
.056
.061
.062
.061
.383
.408
.430
.441
.446
.004
.004
.004
.004
.006
.120
.124
.110
.102
.101
.068
.079
.065
.063
.055
.051
.045
.046
.039
.046
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
216.7
231.6
242.3
236.3
265.7
315.1
324.1
328.3
313.4
347.3
.688
.715
.738
.754
.765
.061
.066
.072
.080
.075
.061
.064
.068
.073
.073
.439
.467
.484
.497
.494
.005
.005
.007
.009
.009
.121
.112
.106
.096
.114
.064
.062
.058
.052
.060
.057
.050
.048
.044
.055
5.110
5.333
2.541
2.635
1960
1961
1962.
1963
1964
277.3
284.5
__. 311.0
330 9
357.6
358.9
366.7
399.7
425.4
455.2
.773
.776
778
.778
.786
.075
.076
.072
.070
.068
.079
.082
.083
.084
.084
.505
.505
.500
.495
.497
.010
.011
.011
.011
.012
.104
.102
.112
.118
.125
.053
.053
.052
.054
.053
.051
.049
.061
.064
.072
5.455
5.634
5.912
6.167
6.427
2.752
2.844
2.956
3.054
3.195
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
_ 392.1
430.7
452.9
498.4
„__ 541.8
494.6
532.9
545.8
581.6
607.3
.793
.808
.830
.857
.892
.066
.067
.072
.074
.079
.083
.080
.084
.089
.094
.497
.513
.535
.553
.589
.012
.014
.016
.017
.022
.134
.134
.123
.124
.109
.055
.055
.051
.058
.055
.079
.078
.072
.066
.055
6.625
6.777
6.873
7.141
7.211
3.296
3.478
3.676
3.948
4.240
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
560.6
602.5
671.0
. . . . 752.0
810.0
600.6
619 3
671.0
720.4
698.7
.933
973
1.000
1.044
1.159
.088
.094
.093
.095
.116
.103
.110
.110
.112
.123
.628
.645
.661
.699
.794
.028
.029
.028
.032
.041
.086
.095
.107
.105
.085
.045
.048
.050
.055
.061
.041
.046
.057
.050
.024
7.242
7.531
7.798
7.985
7.743
4.547
4.858
5.158
5.583
6.147
1975
1976 v
870.4
982.6
676.8
726.8
1.286
1,352
.143
.148
.138
.138
.853
.883
.045
.049
.107
.133
.059
.072
.048
.062
7.969
6.795
1974: L . . .
II...
ML.
IV...
787.9
807.5
821.5
823.3
717.1
707.8
696.9
675.2
1.099
1.141
1.179
1.219
.105
.111
.118
.128
.116
.121
.126
.130
.748
.777
.810
.841
.037
.040
.043
.046
.093
.092
.082
.074
.057
.061
.068
.058
.036
.031
.014
.016
7.880
7.807
7.693
7.612
5.897
6.065
6.229
6.403
1975: I . . . .
II...
ML.
IV...
822.3
851.1
892.0
916.1
653.1
668.1
688.9
696.1
1.259
1.274
1.295
1.316
.139
.142
.143
.146
.135
.138
.139
.140
.863
.847
.842
.860
.046
.045
.045
.046
.076
.101
.126
.124
.046
.053
.066
.068
.030
.049
.059
.055
7.678
7.958
8.123
8.097
6.624
6.745
6.843
6.962
1976: l____ 949.0
I I . . . 972.8
ML. 993.8
713.9
725.7
731.5
1.329
1.341
1.359
.146
.147
.149
.136
.137
.138
.869
.876
.884
.047
.049
.050
.131
.132
.137
.072
.074
.075
.059
.058
.062
8.187
8.289
8.341
7.113
7.258
7.370
1948
1949
1950
1951_
1952
1953
1954
. _
1
Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars.
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point,
shifted two places to the left.
3
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
• With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
201
TABLE B-13.—Personal consumption expenditures, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Durable goods 1
Personal consumption
expenditures
|
Year
or
quarter
I
f
&
1
Services l
Nondurable goods»
Household
operation l
1
I
is
v>
"O
DO
C
a> E
I
~5
1®
:=
o
•o
.=
o
I
1
CO
©
S
U-
•o
c
-.3
CO
:§
C
I
3
O
X
S>
I
|
77.3
9.?
3.3
4.7
37.7
19.5
9.4
1.8
1.6
30.3
11.7
4.0
1.2
2.6
1933
45 8
3.5
1.1
1.9
22.3
11.5
4.6
1.5
1.2
20.1
8.1
2.8
1.1
1.5
1939
67 0
6.7
2.3
34
35.1
19.1
7.1
2.2
1.4
25.2
9.4
3.8
1.4
2.0
71.0
80.8
88.6
99 4
108.2
119.5
143 8
161 7
174 7
178 1
2.8
7,8
3.5
9.7
6.9
.7
6.5
.8
.8
6.7
8.0
1.0
4.1
15.8
6.6
20.4
?? 9 8.0
25 0 10.6
3.8
4.8
4.6
3.9
3.8
4.5
8 4
10 6
11.5
11.3
37.0
42.9
50.8
58.6
64.3
71.9
82.7
90.9
96.6
94.9
20.2
23.4
28.4
33.2
36.7
40.6
47 4
52.3
54.2
52.5
7.5
8.8
11.0
13.4
14.6
16.5
18 2
18.8
20.1
19.3
2.3
2.6
2.1
1.3
1.4
1.8
3.4
4.0
4.8
5.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.5
30
3.4
3.1
26.2
28.2
31.0
34.3
37.1
39.6
45.3
50.4
55.3
58.2
9.7
10.4
11.2
11.8
12.3
12.8
14 2
16 0
17.9
19.6
4.0
4.3
4.8
5.2
5.9
6.4
6.8
75
81
85
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
23
2.6
2.9
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.4
3.7
4.0
192
207
217
229
235
253
266
280
289
310
0
1
1
7
8
7
0
4
5
8
30.8
29.8
?9 1
3? 5
31.8
38.6
37 9
39.3
36.8
4? 4
13.7
12.2
11.3
13.9
13.0
17.8
15.8
17.2
14.8
18.9
13.7
14 0
14.0
i4 6
14 6
16 2
17 1
16.9
16 6
17 8
98.2 53.9
08 8 60.4
L13.9 63.4
16. 5 64 4
18 0 65 4
122.9 67.2
128.9 69.9
135.2 73 6
L39.8 76 4
146.4 79.1
19.6
21 ?
21.9
22.1
22.1
23.1
24.1
24.3
24.7
26.1
5.5
6.1
6.8
7.4
78
8.6
9.4
10.2
10.6
11.3
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.2
4.0
63.0
68.5
74.0
80.6
86.1
92.1
99.2
05.9
112.8
121.9
21.7
24.3
27.0
29.8
32.2
34.3
36.7
39.3
42.0
45.0
9.5
10 4
11 1
l?0
12 6
14.0
15?
16.2
17 3
18.5
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.1
6.5
7.1
7.6
6.2
6.7
7.1
7.8
7.9
8.2
8.6
9.0
9.3
10.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
324.9
335 0
355 2
374.6
400 4
430.2
464 8
490.4
535 9
579.7
43.1
41.6
46.7
51.4
56.3
62.8
67.7
69.6
80.0
85. 5
19.7
17.8
21.5
24.4
26.0
29.8
30.1
29.7
35.8
37.7
17.7
17.9
18.9
20.3
22.8
24.7
27.7
29.5
32.6
35.0
151.1
155.3
161.6
L67.1
L76.9
188.6
204.7
212.6
230.4
247.0
81.1
83.2
85.5
87.8
92.7
98.9
106.6
109.6
118.3
126.1
26.7
27.4
28.7
29.5
31.9
33.5
36.6
38.2
41.8
45.1
12.0
12.0
12.6
12.9
13.5
14.7
16.0
17.0
18.4
20.4
3.8
3.7
3.7
4.0
4.1
4.4
4.7
4.8
5.0
5.2
130.7
138.1
L47.0
156.1
167.1
L78.7
192.4
208.1
225.6
247.2
48.1
51.2
54.7
58.0
61.4
65.5
69.5
74.1
79.9
86.8
20.1
8.3
21.0
8.8
2? ? 9.4
23.4
9.9
24 8 10.4
26.3 10.9
28.0 11.5
30.6 12.2
32.7 13.1
35.5 14.2
10.7
11.2
11.7
12.2
12.8
13.7
15. G
16.2
17.4
18.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
618.8
668.2
733 0
809.9
887 5
973 2
1,078 6
84.9
97.1
111.?
123.7
121.6
131.7
156 3
34.9
43.8
50.6
55.2
47.9
53.2
70.6
36.7
39.4
44.8
50.7
54.7
57.6
62.9
264.7
277.7
299.3
333.8
376.2
409.1
440.3
136.3
140.6
150.4
168.1
189.9
209.5
224.5
46.6
50.5
55.1
61.3
65.1
70.0
75.3
22.0
23.4
24.9
27.8
36.3
38.9
41.4
5.4
5.5
6.3
7.7
9.5
10.1
11.8
269.1
293.4
322.4
352.3
389.6
432.4
482.0
94.0
L02.7
L12.3
L23.2
136.4
150.2
165.8
38.3
41.6
45.9
50.2
56.1
63.9
71.6
15.5
17.0
18.9
20.6
24.0
28.9
32.1
21.1
23.8
26. C
27. S
31.1
34.0
37.4
853 3
878.7
906.8
911.1
118.6
122.5
128.0
117.4
46.2
48.5
53.0
43.7
53 7
54.9
55.7
54.4
360 6
371.9
383.8
388.5
181 5
186.4
193.7
198.0
64.2
65.0
66.2
65.0
31.8
36.2
38.0
39.3
9.0
9.3
9.8
9.9
374.1
384.3
394.9
405.2
131.8
134.6
137.8
141.3
52.8
55.3
57.5
59.1
21.6
23.3
24.8
26.3
29.7
30.6
31.6
32.5
933.2
1975:1
II....
960.3
III.... 987.3
I V . . . . 1,012.0
122.1
127.0
136.0
141.8
47.6
49.5
56.3
59.2
54.6
57.0
58.2
60.6
394.4
405.8
414.6
421.6
203.2
207.8
211.8
215.2
66.6
69.3
71.3
73.0
37.9
38.6
39.2
39.9
9.5
9.9
10.8
10.2
416.7
427.4
436.7
448.6
145.0
148.4
151.8
155.8
61.2
63.7
65.0
65.9
27.6
28.9
29.5
29.6
33.3
33.6
34.1
35.0
1976:1
11
III....
IV p . .
151.4
155.0
157.6
161.2
68.0
70.4
71.7
72.4
61.2
62.3
62.9
65.1
429.1
434.8
441.8
455.5
219.2
223.1
225.2
230.4
73.5
73.2
75.9
78.5
40.1
40.3
41.6
43.6
11.2
11.0
11.9
13.2
463.2
474.9
489.1
500.8
159.7
163.9
167.8
171.7
68.4
69.6
72.8
7,4
31.0
30.6
32.6
34.1
36.5
37. C
37.8
38.6
1929.
.
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
..
.
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.
.
P
1974* 1
II
III....
IV....
1,043.6
1,064.7
1, 088. 5
1,117.5
1
Total includes "other" category, not shown separately.
2 Includes imputed rental value of owner-occupied dwellings.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
202
5 0
5.3
5.8
5.9
TABLE B-14.—Gross private domestic investment, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Change in
business
inventories
Fixed investment
Year or
quarter
Nonresidential
Gross
private
domestic
invest- Total
ment
Structures
Residential
Producers'
durable
equipment
Total
Total
Nonfarm
Total
Total
Nonfarm
structures
Nonfarm
ProFarm ducers' Total
struc- durable
tures
equipment
Nonfarm
1929
16.2
14.5
10.5
5.0
4.8
5.5
4.8
4.0
3.8
0.2
0.1
1.7
1.8
1933
1.4
3.0
2.4
.9
.9
1.4
1.3
,6
.5
.0
.0
-1 6
-1.4
1939..
9.3
8.8
5.8
2.0
1.9
3.9
3.3
3.0
2.8
.1
.1
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945..
1946
1947
1948
1949
13.1
17.9
9.9
5.8
7.2
10.6
30.7
34.0
45.9
35.3
10.9
13.4
8.1
6.4
8.1
11.7
24.3
34.4
41.1
38.4
7.5
9.4
6.0
5.0
6.8
10.1
16.8
22.9
26.2
24.3
2.3
2.9
1.9
1.3
1.8
2.8
6.8
7.6
8.9
8.6
2.2
2.8
1.8
1.2
1.7
2.6
6.1
6.8
8.1
7.8
5.2
6.4
4.1
3.7
5.0
7.3
9.9
15.3
17.3
15.7
4.5
5.5
3.5
3.2
4.2
6.3
9.0
13.4
14.7
12.8
3.5
4.0
2.2
1.4
1.3
1.6
7 5
11.5
15.0
14 1
3.2
3.7
1.9
1.2
1.1
1.4
6.8
10.5
13.8
12.9
.2
.2
.2
.2
.1
.1
.5
.7
.9
.8
.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
53.8
59.2
52.1
53.3
52.7
68.4
71.0
69.2
61.9
77.6
47.0
48.9
49.0
52.9
54.3
62.4
66.3
67.9
63.4
72.3
27.1
31.1
31.2
34.3
34.0
38.3
43.7
46.7
41.6
45.3
9.3
11.3
11.5
12.8
13.2
14.4
17.4
18.1
16.7
17.0
8.6
10.5
10.6
12.0
12.4
13.7
16.6
17.4
16.0
16.1
17.8
19.9
19.7
21.5
20.8
23.9
26.3
28.6
24.9
28.3
14.9
16.9
17.1
18.7
18.4
21.3
24.1
26.2
21.9
25.2
19.9
17 7
17 8
18.6
20.3
24.1
??,6
21.2
21.8
27.0
18.7
16.6
16.6
17.5
19.2
23.0
21.4
20.0
20.7
25.8
.8
.8
.8
.8
.7
.6
.7
.7
.7
.7
4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.5
.5
.5
.6
I960
1961
1962 . . . .
1963
1964
1965
. .
1966
1967
1968
1969
. .
76.4
74.3
85.2
90.2
96.6
112.0
124.5
120.8
131.5
146.2
72.7
72.1
78.7
84.2
90.8
102.5
110.2
110.7
123.8
136.8
47.7
47.1
51.2
53.6
59.7
71.3
81.4
82.1
89.3
98.9
18.2
18.4
19.4
19.6
21.5
26.1
29.2
29.5
31.6
35.7
17 3
17.5
18.5
18.6
20.5
25.1
28.1
28.2
30.4
34.3
29.5
28.7
31.8
34.0
38.2
45.1
52.2
52.6
57.7
63.3
27.0
26.1
28.9
30.6
34.6
41.2
47.9
48.0
53.4
58.9
25.0
25.0
27.4
30.6
31.2
31.2
28.7
28.6
34.5
37.9
23.9
23.8
26.3
29.4
29.9
29.9
27.4
27.2
33.1
36.3
.6
.7
.6
.7
.7
.6
.7
.7
.6
.5
.5
.5
.6
.6
.7
.7
.7
.8
.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976"
140.8
160.0
188.3
220.0
215 0
183.7
241.2
137.0
153.6
178.8
202.1
204.3
198.3
227.7
100.5
104.1
116.8
136.0
149.2
147.1
160.0
37.7
39.3
42.5
49.0
54.1
52.0
55.4
36.1 62.8
37.8 64.7
41.1 74.3
46.9 87.0
51.8 95.1
49.8 95.1
53.1 104.5
58.1
59.9
69.1
80.1
87.2
86.9
95.6
36.6
49.6
62.0
66.1
55.1
51.2
67.8
35.1
47.9
60.3
64.3
52.7
49.0
65.1
.6
.7
.7
.6
1.0
.8
1.1
.9
1974: 1
II
III....
IV....
216.4
218.8
213.3
211.5
203.8
205.8
206.0
201.7
145.1
149.0
150.9
151.9
52.4
54.8
54.1
55.2
50.1
52.3
51.9
52.9
92.7
94.2
96.8
96.7
85.5
86.5
89.0
88.0
58.7
56.8
55.0
49.8
56.4
54.6
52.7
47.2
1.0
.9
.9
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
L.3
12.6
13.0
7.3
9.7
14.5
13.9
7.4
12.9
1975: 1
II
III..IV
172.4
164.4
196.7
201.4
194.6
194.3
198.6
205.7
148.0
145.8
146.1
148.7
53.1
51.2
51.8
52.1
50.9
48.8
49.6
49.9
94.9
94.6
94.3
96.6
86.5
86.2
86.7
88.0
46.6
48.6
52.6
57.0
44.9
46.7
50.2
54.2
.5
.6
1.0
1.4
L.2 - 2 2 . 2
1.3 - 3 0 . 0
L.4 - 2 . 0
L.4 - 4 . 3
-25.6
-31.2
-4.2
-9.5
1976: 1
II
III....
IV*>_._.
229.6
239.2
247.0
249.0
214.7
223.2
231.9
241.1
153.4
157.9
163.0
165.5
53.2
54.9
56.0
57.5
51.0
52.5
53.7
55.1
100.2
103.0
107.0
108.0
91.3
94.1
98.0
98.8
61.3
65.3
68.9
75.6
58.6
62.9
66.3
72.7
1.2
.9
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
. .
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
203
1
.0
.0
.0
.2
3
3
.4
.3
2.2
4.5
1 8
- 6
-1 0
-1.0
6.4
-.5
4 7
-3 1
1.9
4.0
7
- 6
-.6
-.6
6.4
1.3
30
-2.2
6 8
10.3
3.1
60
9.1
2.1
1.1
-2.1
5.5
5.1
.8
-2.3
5.3
-1.5
6.0
4.7
1.3
-1.5
5.2
3 8
2.2
6.5
6.0
5 8
9.5
14.3
10.1
7.7
9.4
3.5
1.9
5.8
5.2
64
8.5
14.5
9.4
7.6
9.2
3.8
6.4
9.4
?
17.9
10.7
-14.6
.6
13.5
3.7
5.1
8.8
14.7
12.2
-17.6
13.6
n
i
14.8
16.0
15.1
7.9
12.7
17.3
15.6
8.9
TABLE B-15.—Inventories and final sales of business, 1946-76
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; seasonally adjusted]
Inventory-final
sales ratio
Inventories I
Nonfarm
Year and
quarter
Total
Fourth quarter:
1946
1947
1948
1949
Farm
Total
nonfarm
Manufac- Wholesale
turing
trade
Final
sales2
Retail
trade
Total
Other
Nonfarm'
73.7
86.9
90.6
81.0
21.8
25.8
23.4
19.5
51.9
61.1
67.2
61.4
26.7
31.8
34.8
31.0
9.6
10.6
11.3
10.9
11.9
14.1
16.1
15.0
3.7
4.6
4.9
4.4
192.0
219.6
235.7
234.6
0.384
.396
.384
.345
0.270
.278
.285
.262
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954 . .
98.8
112.1
109.4
110.1
107.2
24.2
26.5
23.1
21 6
20.5
74.6
85.6
86.3
88.5
86.7
37.4
46.2
47.3
49.3
47.0
13.4
14.0
14.0
14.2
14.5
18.6
19.2
18.8
19.5
19.7
5.2
6.2
6.2
5.5
5.6
259.8
295.6
313.3
325.8
330.1
.380
.379
.349
.338
.325
.287
.290
.275
.272
.263
1955
1956 .
1957
1958
1959 . .
112.1
121.8
126.7
128.9
132.3
17.6
18.3
20.9
24.9
23.6
94.6
103.5
105.8
103.9
108.7
51.4
57.5
57.9
56.0
57.5
15.6
16.7
16.9
16.9
18.0
21.9
22.9
24.0
24.1
25.3
5.6
6.4
6.9
6.9
8.0
356.5
377.0
392.7
405.0
426.7
.315
.323
.323
.318
.310
.265
.274
.269
.257
.255
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
136.2
138 4
145 2
151 5
157.6
24.8
25 0
26 6
26.9
25.7
111.3
113 4
118.6
124.6
131.8
58.1
59.5
62.5
64.8
68.5
18.4
19.0
19.7
21.2
22.3
26.8
26.3
27.9
29.4
31.1
8.1
8.7
8.6
9.2
9.9
442.1
465.3
492.7
524.2
553.1
.308
.297
.295
.289
.285
.252
.244
.241
.238
.238
172.7
189.1
202 2
215.3
236.2
29.7
28.9
29 2
30.4
33.4
143.0
160.2
173.0
184.9
202.8
73.7
83.4
91.1
97.4
107.1
24.0
27.2
29.2
30.9
33.8
34.4
38.0
39.2
42.2
45.9
10.9
11.6
13.5
14.4
16.1
610.7
647.5
688.0
757.6
804.5
.283
.292
.294
.284
.294
.234
.247
.251
.244
.252
244.2
261.9
288 6
355 8
428.0
31.7
36.8
44 6
66.2
61.7
212.5
225.1
243.9
289.6
366.3
110.8
113.6
120.4
143.6
188.7
36.8
39.4
43.6
52.8
67.0
47.1
52.9
58.0
66.8
76.3
17.7
19.2
21.8
26.4
34.4
839.4
915.2
1,019.9
1,120.5
1, 210.1
.291
.286
.283
.318
.354
.253
.246
.239
.258
.303
1975
1976 v
426.8
462.1
63.3
61.1
363.5
401.0
188.5
206.3
64.7
72.5
74.7
82.6
35.6
39.5
1, 344.7
1,466.3
.317
.315
.270
.273
1974:1
II.
Ill .
IV
374.6
392.0
419.9
428.0
64.7
59.2
65.9
61.7
309.9
332.7
354.0
366.3
155.7
170.0
182.3
188.7
57.2
61.2
64.9
67.0
68.4
70.7
74.0
76.3
28.6
30.9
32.8
34.4
l f 143.5
1,170.8
1, 202.3
1, 210.1
.328
.335
.349
.354
.271
.284
.294
.303
1975:1
419 0
417.7
426.8
426.8
58.5
63.2
66.3
63.3
360.5
354.5
360.5
363.5
187.7
184.8
186.4
188.5
66.0
64.1
65.0
64.7
73.2
72.3
75.0
74.7
33.6
33.3
34.1
35.6
1,238.5
1, 276.4
1,308.8
1,344.7
.338
.327
.326
.317
.291
.278
.275
.270
434.9
445.4
452.9
462.1
64.2
65.4
62.3
61.1
370.7
380.0
390.6
401.0
190.6
194.7
199.7
206.3
66.6
69.0
70.4
72.5
77.2
79.4
82.2
82.6
36.3
36.9
38.3
39.5
1,365.9
1, 399.5
1,428.0
1,466.3
.318
.318
.317
.315
.271
.272
.274
.273
..
1965 . . .
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
.
. . .
II
III
IV
1976-1
II
III
IV p . .
1
2
End of quarter.
Annual rates.
» Ratio based on total final sales, which include a small amount of final sales by farms.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
204
TABLE B-16.—Inventories and final sales of business in 1972 dollars,
1947-76
[Billions of 1972 dollars, except as noted; seasonally adjusted]
Inventories
Inventory-final
sales ratio
I
Nonfarm
Year and
quarter
Total
Fourth quarter:
1947
.
1948
1949
Farm
Total
nonfarm
Final
sales 2
Total
Manufacturing
Wholesale
trade
Retail
trade
0.299
.301
.288
0.234
.236
.225
442.6
476.5
499.1
516.2
517.0
.294
.302
.297
.290
.285
.232
.241
.236
.232
.225
.284
.289
.288
.279
.280
.226
.234
10.5
547.4
557.6
565.3
577.2
596.8
33.0
32.2
34.0
35.7
37.6
10.7
11.4
11.4
12.0
12.8
609.0
636.6
664.2
699.3
730.7
.282
.274
.275
.272
.271
.228
.221
.223
221
.223
28.9
32.0
33.9
34.9
36.5
41.0
44.4
44.8
47.0
49.4
13.8
14.3
16.3
16.8
18.0
791.3
809.2
837.2
882.8
892.2
.264
.279
.284
.279
.288
.234
.240
.237
.246
117.1
115.4
117.5
123.6
129.7
38.7
40.1
42.4
45.3
48.5
49.0
53.7
56.5
60.3
59.2
18.8
19.5
21.3
22.7
23.4
891.7
935.0
1, 007.6
1,031.8
997.0
.293
.287
.275
.285
.303
.251
.245
.236
.244
.261
247.7
256.9
124.1
127.5
44.9
47.8
55.6
57.9
23.1
23.7
1,035.7
1, 082. 2
.280
.277
.239
.237
41.9
41.9
41.8
41.7
254.8
257.2
258.5
260.7
125.7
127.4
128.6
129.7
46.6
47.7
48.0
48.5
59.6
59.2
58.9
59.2
22.9
22.9
23.0
23.4
1,029.5
1, 026.7
1,022.0
997.0
.288
.291
.294
.303
.247
.251
.253
.261
297.2
291.9
291.7
290.3
41.9
42.0
42.2
42.6
255.3
249.9
249.4
247.7
128.7
126.6
125.0
124.1
47.3
45.7
45.5
44.9
56.4
55.2
56.2
55.6
22.9
22.5
22.6
23.1
996.1
1,011.1
1,021.8
1,035.7
.298
.289
.285
.280
.256
.247
.244
.239
292.9
295.7
298.2
299.4
43.0
42.7
42.7
42.5
249.9
252.9
255.5
256.9
124.1
125.4
126.4
127.5
45.7
46.8
47.4
47.8
56.8
57.2
58.2
57.9
23.3
23.5
23.5
23.7
1,044.7
1,059.9
1,068.0
1,082.2
.280
.279
.279
.277
.239
.239
.239
.237
25.7
26.7
26.2
93.0
97.3
93.5
49.9
51.3
48.6
13.8
15.0
15.0
20.5
22.5
22.0
130.2
143.9
148.2
149.7
147.5
27.5
29.1
30.4
30.2
31.1
102.7
114.8
117.9
119.6
116.5
51.8
62.5
65.2
66.9
63.3
17.0
17.5
17.9
18.1
18.4
25.2
25.3
25.3
25.8
26.0
155.3
161.1
162.6
160.8
167.2
31.5
30.7
31.4
32.4
32.4
123.7
130.3
131.2
128.4
134.8
66.7
71.6
71.1
68.6
71.1
19.9
20.5
20.3
20.3
22.1
28.7
29.0
30.0
29.7
31.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
171.6
174.5
182.6
190.4
197.7
32.8
33.2
34.5
35.7
35.1
138.8
141.2
148.1
154.7
162.6
72.4
74.2
78.4
80.8
84.7
22.7
23.4
24.3
26.2
27:5
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
209.0
225.7
237.7
246.4
257.0
36.2
36.0
36.8
37.0
37.3
172.8
189.7
200.9
209.4
219.7
89.1
99.0
105.9
110.7
115.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
261.3
267.9
211A
293.9
302.3
37.7
39.2
39.8
42.1
41.7
223.6
228.8
237.6
251.8
260.7
290.3
299.4
42.6
42.5
1974:1
II
Ill
IV
296.7
299.1
300.3
302.3
1975:1
II
Ill
IV
1976:1
.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
. . . .
1975
1976
P
II
III
IV x
»
1
2
8.7
397.2
412.0
415.1
118.6
124.1
119.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
Nonfarm3
Other
8.6
7.8
8.7
9.5
9.6
8.7
8.8
8.4
9.2
9.8
9.8
End of quarter.
Annual rates.
3 Ratio based on total final sales, which include a small amount of final sales by farms.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/- 77 - 14
224-250 O
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
205
232
.222
.226
218
TABLE B-17.—Relation of gross national product and national income, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Year or quarter
Less:
Capital
consumption allowGross
national ances with
capital
product
consumption adjustment
Plus:
Subsidies
less
Less:
Equals:
Net
national
product
current
surplus
of government
enterprises
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
liability
Business
transfer
payments
Statistical
discrepancy
Equals:
National
income
1929
103.4
9.7
93.7
-0.2
7.1
0.6
1.1
84.8
1933_
55.8
7.5
48.3
-.0
7.1
.7
.7
39.9
1939
90.8
8.7
82.1
.4
9.4
.5
1.4
71.3
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
100.0
124.9
158.3
192.0
210.5
212.3
209.6
232.8
259.1
258.0
9.0
10.0
11.2
11.5
11.8
12.3
13.8
17.2
20.3
22.0
91.0
114.9
147.1
180.5
198.7
200.0
195.7
215.6
238.8
236.1
.4
.1
.1
.1
.6
.7
.9
-.2
-.1
-.3
10.1
11.3
11.8
12.8
14.2
15.5
17.1
18.4
20.1
21.3
.4
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.6
.7
.8
1.1
.5
-.8
-1.8
2.7
4.1
.7
1.8
-1.2
1.0
79.7
102.6
135.7
169.1
181.9
180.6
178.3
194.6
219.0
212.7
286.2
330.2
347.2
366.1
366.3
399.3
420.7
442.8
448.9
486.5
23.9
27.6
29.6
31.6
33.1
35.3
38.9
42.0
44.1
46.1
262.3
302.6
317.6
334.5
333.2
364.0
381.8
400.8
404.8
440.4
.1
-.1
-.5
-.3
-.0
.7
.7
1.1
.1
23.4
25.3
27.7
29.7
29.6
32.2
35.1
37.5
38.7
41.8
.8
.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.0
4.0
2.7
3.3
3.0
2.5
-.8
.2
1.7
2
236.2
272.3
285.8
299.7
299.1
328.0
346.9
362.3
364.0
397.1
506.0
523.3
563.8
594.7
635.7
688.1
753.0
796.3
868.5
935.5
47.7
49 1
50.5
52.2
54.6
57.5
61.7
67.0
73.8
82.5
458.3
474.2
513.3
542.5
581.2
630.6
691.3
729.3
794.7
853.1
.4
17
1.8
1.1
1.7
1.6
2.5
1.6
1.3
1.8
45.4
48.0
51.6
54.6
58.8
62.6
65.3
70.2
78.8
86.4
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.8
-.7
1.6
4.0
3.7
2.2
.9
3.2
1.7
-.6
-3.3
412.0
424.2
457.4
482.8
519.2
566.0
622.2
655.8
714.4
767.9
982 4
1, 063.4
1 171.1
1,306.6
1,413.2
1,516.3
1, 692. 4
90 8
98.8
105.4
117.7
137.7
161.4
179.8
891.6
964.7
1, 065. 8
1,188.9
1,275.5
1,355.0
1,512.7
27
2.4
3.6
3.9
.8
2.0
1.2
94.0
103.4
111.0
120.2
128.4
138.7
149.7
4.0
4.2
4.7
5.4
5.6
6.3
7.1
-2.1
1.3
1.7
2.6
6.6
4.4
7.6
798.4
858.1
951.9
1, 064.6
1,135.7
1,207.6
1, 349. 4
1,372.7
1,399.4
1,431.6
1,449. 2
128.5
134.5
140.6
147.2
1, 244. 2
1,265.0
1,291.0
1,301.9
1.3
.8
.9
.3
124.0
127.5
131.0
131.0
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.7
2.4
7.1
7.7
9.3
1,113.5
1,125.6
1,147.6
1,156.3
1, 446. 2
1, 482.3
1,548.7
1, 588.2
152.9
158.7
164.4
169.5
1,293.3
1,323.6
1,384.3
1,418.7
1.4
1.9
2.1
2.7
132.6
136.5
141.5
144.1
5.9
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.4
5.1
6.1
1,149.7
1,182.7
1,233.4
1,264.6
1, 636.2
1,675.2
1,709.8
1, 748. 5
173.6
177.7
181.6
186.2
1,462.6
1,497.6
1, 528. 2
1, 562. 3
.9
.7
1.2
1.9
144.9
148.2
151.0
154.8
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.2
5.8
8.7
1,304.7
1,337.4
1, 362. 5
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
. .
-.
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
.
. .
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 v
_ _
1974: 1
II
III
IV
1975: 1
II
III
IV
1976: 1
II
III
IV V
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
206
TABLE B-18.—Relation of national income and personal income', 1929-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Less:
Corporate
profits
with
National inventory
income
valuation
and
capital
consumption
adjustments
Year or
q uarter
Plus:
Net
interest
Contributions
for
social
insurance
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements
Government
transfer
payments
to
persons
Personal
interest
income
Equals:
Dividends
Business
transfer Personal
payincome
ments
1929.
84.8
9.2
4.7
0.2
.0
0.9
6.9
5.8
0.6
1933
39.9
-1.7
4.1
.3
.0
1.5
5.5
2.0
.7
46.9
71.3
5.3
3.6
2.1
.0
2.5
5.4
3.8
.5
72.4
1940
1941
1942 .
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
79.7
102.6
135.7
169.1
181.9
180.6
178.3
194.6
219.0
212.7
8.7
14.1
19.3
23.5
23.6
19.0
16 6
22.2
29.1
26.9
3.3
3.3
3.1
2.7
2.4
2.2
1.6
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.8
3.5
4.5
5.2
6.1
6.1
5.8
5.4
5.9
.0
.0
.0
.2
-.2
.0
-.0
.0
.0
-.0
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.5
3.1
5.6
10.8
11.2
10.6
11.7
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
b.2
5.9
6.4
7.3
7.7
8.2
4.0
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2
.4
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.6
.7
.8
77.8
95.3
122.4
150.7
164.4
169.8
177.3
189.8
208.5
205.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
236.2
272.3
285.8
299.7
299.1
328.0
346.9
362.3
364.0
397.1
33.7
38.1
35.4
35.5
34 6
44.6
42.9
42.1
37.5
48.2
2.3
2.7
3.0
3.4
4.3
4.8
5.2
6.5
8.0
8.8
7.1
8.5
9.0
9.1
10.1
11.5
12.9
14.9
15.2
18.0
.0
.1
-.0
-.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
14.4
11.6
12.1
12.9
15.1
16.2
17.3
20.1
24.3
25.2
8.9
9.6
10.3
11.4
12.7
13.8
15.3
17.4
18.8
20.9
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.1
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.3
12.2
.8
.9
L.O
?
1
?
1.4
5
1.6
8
226.1
253.7
270.4
286.1
288.2
308.8
330.9
349.3
359.3
382.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968 . . .
1969
412.0
424.2
457.4
482.8
519.2
566.0
622.2
655.8
714.4
767.9
46.6
46.9
54.9
59.6
67.0
77.1
82.5
79 3
85.8
81.4
9.8
11.2
12.8
14.3
15.9
18.5
21.9
24.3
26.8
30.8
21.1
21.9
24.3
27.3
28.7
30.0
38.8
43 4
48.1
54.9
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
27.0
30.8
31.6
33.4
34.8
37.6
41.6
49 5
56.5
62.7
23.3
24.6
27.1
30.2
33.3
37.2
41.8
45.0
49.6
55.9
12.9
13.3
14.4
15.5
17.3
19.1
19.4
20.1
21.9
22.6
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.7
2.8
3.0
31
3.4
3.8
399.7
415.0
440.7
463.1
495.7
537.0
584.9
626.6
685.2
745.8
798.4
1970
1971
858.1
951.9
1972
1, 064. 6
1973
1,135.7
1974
1975 _ _ 1,207.6
1976 v
1,349.4
67.9
77.2
92.1
99.1
84.8
91.6
118.7
37.5
42.8
47.0
52.3
67.1
74.6
82.1
58.7
64.8
73.6
91.5
103.4
109.7
122.8
.0
.6
.0
-.1
-.5
.0
.0
75.9
89.9
99.4
113.5
134.6
168.9
184.2
64.3
69.3
74.6
84.1
101.4
110.7
123.1
22.9
23.0
24.6
27.8
30.8
32.1
35.1
4.0
4.2
4.7
5.4
5.6
6.3
7.1
801.3
859.1
942.5
1,052.4
1,153.3
1,249.7
1,375.4
1974: 1 . . .
II...
III..
IV..
1,113.5
1,125.6
1,147. 6
1,156.3
95.7
87.8
81.7
74.1
59.4
65.9
70.0
73.2
100.4
102.4
105.0
105.9
.0
-.6
-1.5
.0
123.2
130.8
138.5
146.0
92.9
99.7
104.8
108.2
29.9
30.7
31.3
31.1
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.7
1,109.7
1,136.8
1,172.5
1,194.1
1975: l__II...
III..
IV..
1,149.7
1,182.7
1,233.4
1,264.6
69.0
86.6
105.3
105.6
73.7
74.0
74.9
75.8
107.6
108.1
110.3
112.6
.0
.0
.0
.0
157.8
169.3
172.7
176.0
108.2
109.0
111.0
114.4
31.7
31.9
32.6
32.2
5.9
6.2
6.4
6.6
1, 203.1
1,230.3
1, 265. 5
1,299.7
1976: 1 . . . 1,304.7
II... 1, 337.4
III.. 1, 362. 5
IV*.
115.1
116.4
122.0
78.6
80.3
83.5
86.0
119.3
121.4
123.7
126.8
.0
.0
.0
.0
181.8
180.6
185.2
189.2
118.0
120.7
125.0
128.7
33.1
34.4
35.4
37.7
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
1,331.3
1, 362.0
1, 386. 0
1,422.1
1939 _
.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
207
84.9
T A B L E B-19.—National income by type of income, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments
Compensation of
(employees
Farm
Year or
quarter
National
income i
Total
SuppleWages ments
to
and
sala- wages
and
ries
salaries 2
Total
Total
Nonfarm
Capital
conInsumpcome 3 tion
adjustment
Total
Income*
Inven- Capital
tory
convalua- sumption
tion
adadjustjustment ment
1929
84 8
51.1
50.5
0.6
14.9
6.2
6.3
-0.1
8.8
8.8
0.1
-0.2
1933
39.9
29.5
29.0
.5
5.8
2.6
2.5
.1
3.2
3.9
-.5
-.2
1939..
71.3
48.1
46.0
2.1
11.7
4.4
4.4
-.0
7.3
7.6
-.2
-.1
1940
1941.
1942
1943
1944..
1945..
1946
1947..
1948
1949
79.7
102.6
135.7
169.1
181.9
180.6
178 3
194.6
219.0
212.7
52.1
64.8
85.3
109.5
121.2
123.1
118.1
129.2
141.4
141.3
49.9
62.1
82.1
105.8
116.7
117.5
112.0
123.1
135.5
134.7
2.3
2.7
3.2
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.0
6.1
5.9
6.6
12.9
17.4
24.0
29.0
30.2
31.7
36.6
35.8
40.7
36.1
4.5
6.4
9.8
11.7
11.6
12.2
14.9
15.2
17.5
12.7
4.5
6.5
10.3
12.2
12.2
12.6
15.1
15.6
18.1
13.4
—.0
-.0
-.5
-.5
-.6
-.4
—.2
8.4
10.9
14.3
17.3
18.6
19.4
21.6
20.6
23.2
23.5
8.6
11.7
14.4
17.1
18.3
19.3
23.3
21.8
23.1
22.2
-.0
-.6
-.4
-.2
-.1
-.1
-1 7
-1.5
-.4
.5
Y
.2
.3
.4
.2
.0
.4
.5
.8
1950
1951
1952..
1953
1954
1955..
1956
1957
1958
1959..
236 2
272.3
285.8
299.7
299 1
328.0
346 9
362.3
364.0
397.1
154.8
181.0
195.7
209.6
208.4
224.9
243.5
256.5
258.2
279.6
147.0
171.3
185.3
198.5
196.8
211.7
228.3
239.3
240.5
258.9
7.8
9.7
10.4
11.0
11.6
13.2
15.2
17.2
17.7
20.6
38.4
42.8
42.9
41.3
40.8
42.5
43.6
45.0
47.4
47.2
13.5
15.8
14.9
12.9
12.3
11.3
11.2
11.0
13.1
10.7
14.1
16.6
15.7
13.7
12.9
11.9
11.8
11.8
13.9
11.6
-.7
-.8
-.8
-.7
-.6
-.6
-.6
— 8
-.8
-.9
24.9
27.0
28.0
28.4
28.5
31.2
32.4
33.9
34.3
36.6
25.1
26.4
26.9
27.6
27.6
30.5
31.8
33.1
33.2
35.3
-1.1
-.3
.2
_
o
1960 .
1961
1962
1963
1964 .
1965
1966 .
1967
1968..
1969
412.0
424.2
457.4
482.8
519.2
566.0
622.2
655 8
714.4
767.9
294.9
303.6
325.1
342.9
368.0
396.5
439.3
471.9
519.8
571.4
271.9
279.5
298.0
313.4
336.1
362.0
398.4
427.5
469.5
514.6
23.0
24.1
27.1
29.5
31.8
34.5
40.9
44.4
50.3
56.8
47.0
48.3
49.6
50.3
52.2
56.7
60.3
61.0
63.4
66.2
11.4
11.8
11.9
11.6
10.3
12.6
13.6
12.1
12.0
13.9
12.3
12.7
12.8
12.5
11.2
13.5
14.6
13.2
13.3
15.4
-.9
-.9
-1.0
-.9
-1.0
-.9
-1.0
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
35.6
36.4
37.7
38.7
42.0
44.1
46.7
48.9
51.4
52.3
34.2
35.3
36.4
37.2
40.2
42.7
45.3
47.5
50.4
51.3
.1
-.1
-.0
-.0
—.0
-.2
-.3
-.3
-.4
-.5
13
1?
1970
1971..
1972
1973..
1974
1975
1976*»
798 4
858.1
951.9
1, 064.6
1,135. 7
1,207.6
1, 349.4
609.2
650.3
715.1
799.2
875.8
928.8
,028.4
546.5
580.0
633.8
701.2
764.5
806.7
890.4
62.7
70.3
81.4
98.0
111.3
122.1
138.0
65.1
67.7
76.1
92.4
86.9
90.2
96.7
13.9
14.3
18.0
32.0
25.8
24.9
22.8
15.3
16.0
20.0
34.2
28.4
28.6
27.0
-1.4
-1.7
-2.0
-2.2
-2.6
-3.8
-4.2
51.2
53.4
58.1
60.4
61.1
65.3
73.8
50.7
52.8
56.4
60.3
63.1
65.2
74.1
-.5
-.4
-.7
-1.7
-3.6
-1.1
-1.2
0
.1
) 5
.8
.6
3
.9
1974: 1
II .
ill
IV
1.113.5
1,125.6
1,147.6
1,156.3
846.3
866.3
888.8
901.8
739.7
756.7
775.6
786.0
106.6
109.6
113.3
115.8
91.2
85.0
86.0
85.5
31.6
24.6
23.8
23.3
33.9
26.9
26.4
26.4
-2.3
-2.3
-2.6
-3.1
59.6
60.4
62.2
62.2
60.7
61.8
65.4
64.6
-2.8
-3.0
-4.8
-3.9
7
.6
.6
L.6
1975: 1
II
Ill
IV
1976: 1
II
Ill
IV v
1,149.7
1,182.7
1,233.4
1,264.6
904.0
912.9
935.2
963.1
785.8
792.8
811.7
836.4
118.2
120.1
123.5
126.7
81.1
86.8
95.5
97.2
17.9
24.1
29.2
28.3
21.4
27.8
33.1
32.3
-3.5
-3.7
-3.9
-4.1
63.2
62.7
66.3
69.0
63.0
62.3
66.1
69.2
-1.3
-.9
-1.1
-1.2
1.5
L.4
L.2
1.0
1,304.7
1,337.4
1,362.5
994.4
,017.2
,037.5
,064.5
861.5
881.1
897.8
921.0
132.9
136.2
139.6
143.5
93.2
100.3
96.1
97.1
21.9
27.5
21.7
20.3
26.1
31.7
25.9
24.5
-4.2
-4.2
-4.2
-4.2
71.4
72.8
74.4
76.8
71.1
73.2
74.6
77.5
-.7
-1.3
-1.2
-1.7
.9
.9
.9
.9
.
..
See footnotes at end of table.
208
-.6
-.0
-.2
-.5
-.3
-.1
-.1
j
.9
.9
.9
.9
10
10
11
1?
1 1
16
18
.6
fi
5
4
T A B L E B-19.—National income by type of income,
1929-76—Continued
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Rental i ncome of persons with capital
consumption
adjustment
Year or
quarter
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments
Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without
capital consumption adjustment
Capital Net
conInven- sump- interest
tory
tion
tion adjustDivi- Undis- adjust- ment
dends tributed ment
profits
Profits before tax
Capital Total
Rental conTotal income sumpof
tion
persons adjustment
Profits after tax
Total
Total
Profits
tax
liability Total
1929
4.9
5.7
-0.8
9.2
10.5
10.0
1.4
8.6
5.8
2.8
0.5
-1.3
4.7
1933
2.2
2.3
-.1
-1.7
-1.2
1.0
.5
.4
2.0
-1.6
-2.1
-.5
4.1
1939
2.6
3.1
-.6
5.3
6.3
7.0
1.4
5.6
3.8
1.8
-.7
-1.0
3.6
1940. . .
1941
1942
1943
1944....
1945
1946
1947
1948...
1949
2.7
3.1
4.0
4.4
4.5
4.6
5.5
5.3
5.7
6.1
3.3
3.9
5.0
5.6
5.9
6.2
7.3
7.7
8.5
8.9
-.6
-.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
-1.8
-2.5
-2.8
-2.8
8.7
14.1
19.3
23.5
23.6
19.0
16.6
22.2
29.1
26.9
9.8
15.2
20.3
24.4
23.8
19.2
19.3
25.6
33.0
30.8
10.0
17.7
21.5
25.1
24.1
19.7
24.6
31.5
35.2
28.9
2.8
7.6
11.4
14.1
12.9
10.7
9.1
11.3
12.4
10.2
7.2
10.1
10.1
11.1
11.2
9.0
15.5
20.2
22.7
18.7
4.0
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2
3.2
5.7
5.9
6.6
6.5
4.4
9.9
13.9
15.7
11.5
-.2
-2.5
-1.2
-.8
-.3
-.6
-5.3
-5.9
-2.2
1.9
-1.1
-1.1
-1.0
-.8
-.2
-.1
-2.7
-3.4
-3.9
-3.8
3.3
3.3
3.1
2.7
2.4
2.2
l.fi
2.1
2.1
2.2
1950..
1951
1952
1953..
1954
1955
1956.
1957
1958
1959
7.1
7.7
8.8
10.0
11.0
11.3
11.6
12.2
12.9
13.2
10.0
11.0
12.2
13.4
14.4
14.8
15.2
15.9
16.7
17.3
-2.9
-3.3
-3.4
-3.4
-3.3
-3.5
-3.6
-3.6
-3.8
-4.0
33.7
38.1
35.4
35.5
34.6
44.6
42.9
42.1
37.5
48.2
37.6
42.7
39.8
39.5
37.8
46.7
45.9
45.4
40.8
51.2
42.6
43.9
38.9
40.5
38.1
48.4
48.6
46.9
41.1
51.6
17.9
22.6
19.4
20.3
17.6
22.0
22.0
21.4
19.0
23.6
24.7
21.3
19.5
20.2
20.5
26.4
26.6
25.5
22.1
28.0
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.1
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.3
12.2
15.9
12.8
11.0
11.5
11.4
16.1
15.5
14.0
10.8
15.8
-5.0
-1.2
1.0
-1.0
-.3
-1.7
-2.7
-1.5
-.3
-.5
-4.0
-4.6
-4.5
-4.1
-3.2
-2.1
-3.0
-3.3
-3.4
-2.9
2.3
?J
3.0
3.4
4.3
4.8
5.2
6.5
8.0
8.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967 . .
1968
1969
13.8
14.3
15.0
15.7
16 1
17.1
18 2
19.4
18.6
18.1
17.8
18.3
19.0
19.6
20.1
21.0
22.1
23.4
23.8
24.8
-4.1
-4.0
-4.0
-3.9
-4.0
-3.9
-3.9
-4.0
-5.2
-6.7
46.6
46.9
54.9
59.6
67.0
77.1
82.5
79.3
85.8
81.4
48.9
48.7
53.7
57.6
64.2
73.3
78.6
75.6
82.1
77.9
48.5
48.6
53.6
57.7
64.7
75.2
80.7
77.3
85.6
83.4
22.7
22.8
24.0
26.2
28.0
30.9
33.7
32.5
39.4
39.7
25.8
25.8
29.6
31.5
36.7
44.3
47.1
44.9
46.2
43.8
12.9
13.3
14.4
15.5
17.3
19.1
19.4
20.1
21.9
22.6
13.0
12.5
15.2
16.0
19.4
25.2
27.6
24.7
24.2
21.2
.3
.1
.1
-.2
-.5
-1.9
-2.1
-1.7
-3.4
-5.5
-2.3
-1.8
1.2
2.1
2.8
3.8
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.5
9.8
11.?
1?.R
14.3
15.9
18.5
21.9
24.3
26.8
30.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976*..—
18.6
20.1
21.5
21.6
21.0
22.4
23.5
25.8 - 7 . 1
27.7 - 7 . 6
29.4 - 7 . 9
31.3 - 9 . 8
33.3 - 1 2 . 3
37.0 -14.6
40.5 - 1 7 . 0
67.9
77.2
92.1
99.1
84.8
91.6
118.7
66.4
76.9
89.6
97.2
87.8
103.1
71.5
82.0
96.2
115.8
127.6
114.5
34.5
37.7
41.5
48.7
52.4
49.2
64.7
37.0
44.3
54.6
67.1
75.2
65.3
22.9
23.0
24.6
27.8
30.8
32.1
35.1
14.1 - 5 . 1
1.5
.3
21.3 - 5 . 0
2.5
30.0 - 6 . 6
1.9
39.3 -18.6
44.4 -39.8 - 3 . 0
33.2 - 1 1 . 4 -11.5
37.5
47.8
47.0
52.3
67.1
74.6
82.1
1974:1....
II...
III...
IV...
20.9
20.6
21.0
21.5
32.4
32.6
33.5
34.6
-11.5
-12.0
-12.5
-13.1
95.7
87.8
81.7
74.1
95.9
89.7
85.2
80.4
126.3
126.4
138.6
119.2
50.5
53.0
57.6
48.6
75.8
73.3
81.0
70.6
29.9
30.7
31.3
31.1
45.9
42.6
49.7
39.5
-.2
-1.9
-3.5
-6.3
59.4
65.9
70.0
73.2
1975:1....
II...
III...
IV...
21.9
22.3
22.4
22.9
35.6
36.6
37.3
38.4
-13.6
-14.2
-14.9
-15.5
69.0
86.6
105.3
105.6
77.7
97.9
117.9
119.1
94.2
105.8
126.9
131.3
40.2
44.8
54.8
57.2
54.0
61.0
72.1
74.1
31.7
31.9
32.6
32.2
22.3 -16.5 - 8 . 6
29.1 - 7 . 8 - 1 1 . 4
39.5 - 9 . 0 -12.6
41.9 - 1 2 . 3 -13.5
73.7
74.0
74.9
75.8
1976:1....
II...
Ml...
IV p.
23.3
23.1
23.4
24.3
39.6
39.6
40.6
42.1
-16.3
-16.5
-17.2
-17.8
115.1
116.4
122.0
129.6
131.8
137.6
141.1
146.2
150.2
61.4
63.5
65.1
79.7
82.7
85.1
33.1
34.4
35.4
37.7
46.6 -11.5 -14.5
48.3 - 1 4 . 4 - 1 5 . 4
49.7 -12.6 -15.7
78.6
80.3
83.5
86.0
-30.4
-36.6
-53.4
-38.8
1
National income is the total net income earned in production. It differs from gross national product mainly in that it
excludes depreciation charges and other allowances for business and institutional consumption of durable capital goods
and indirect business taxes. See Table B-17.
2
Employer contributions for social insurance and to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen s
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
8
With inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment.
4
Without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
209
TABLE B-20.—Sources of personal income, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Wage and salary disbursements*
Year or quarter
Personal
income
Commodityproducing
industries
Total
Total
Manufacturing
Distributive
industries
Service
industries
Government
and
government
enterprises
Other
labor
income i
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
Farm
Nonfarm
1929
84.9
50.5
21.5
16.1
15.6
8.4
5.0
0.5
6.2
1933.
46.9
29.0
9.8
7.8
8.8
5.2
5.2
.4
2.6
1939
72.4
46.0
17.4
13.6
13.3
7.1
8.2
.6
4.4
7.3
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
77.8
95.3
122.4
150.7
164.4
169.8
177.3
189.8
208.5
205.6
49.9
62.1
82.1
105.6
116.9
117.5
112.0
123.1
135.5
134.8
19.7
27.5
39.1
49.0
50.4
45.9
46.0
54.2
60.9
57.7
15.6
21.7
30.9
40.9
42.9
38.2
36.5
42.5
47.1
44.6
14.2
16.3
18.0
20.1
22.7
24.8
31.0
35.2
37.5
37.7
7.5
8.1
9.0
9.9
10.9
11.9
14.3
16.1
18.0
18.6
8.5
10.2
16.0
26.6
33.0
34.9
20.7
17.5
19.0
20.8
.6
.7
.9
1.1
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.7
2.9
4.5
6.4
9.8
11.7
11.6
12.2
14.9
15.2
17.5
12.7
8.4
10.9
14.3
17.3
18.6
19.4
21.6
20.6
23.2
23.5
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
226.1
253.7
270.4
286.1
288.2
308.8
330.9
349.3
359.3
382.1
147.0
171.3
185.4
198.6
196.8
211.7
228.3
239.3
240.5
258.9
64.6
76.1
81.9
89.4
85.5
92.9
106.4
104.0
99.8
109.3
50.3
59.3
64.1
71.2
67.5
73.8
79.4
82.4
78.6
86.8
39.8
44.3
46.9
49.7
50.1
53.4
57.7
60.5
60.8
64.8
20.0
21.7
23.3
25.0
26.3
28.8
31.5
33.8
35.8
38.8
22.6
29.2
33.3
34.4
34.9
36.6
38.8
41.0
44.1
46.0
3.7
4.6
5.2
5.9
6.1
7.0
8.0
9.0
9.4
10.6
13.5
15.8
14.9
12.9
12.3
11.3
11.2
11.0
13.1
10.7
24.9
27.0
28.0
28.4
28.5
31.2
32.4
33.9
34.3
36.6
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966.
1967
1968
1969
399.7
415.0
440.7
463.1
495.7
537.0
584.9
626.6
685.2
745.8
271.9
279.5
298.0
313.4
336.1
362.0
398.4
427.5
469.5
514.6
112.9
113.4
121.5
126.6
135.1
145.7
160.7
168.0
183.0
199.1
89.7
89.8
96.7
100.6
107.1
115.5
128.0
134.1
145.8
157.5
68.2
69.3
72.8
76.3
81.4
87.2
94.4
100.9
109.9
120.7
41.7
44.4
47.5
50.6
54.7
59.2
65.0
72.2
80.2
89.9
49.2
52.4
56.3
60.0
64.9
69.9
78.3
86.4
96.4
104.9
11.2
11.8
13.0
14.0
15.7
17.8
19.9
21.7
25.1
28.2
11.4
11.8
11.9
11.6
10.3
12.6
13.6
12.1
12.0
13.9
35.6
36.4
37.7
38.7
42.0
44.1
46.7
48.9
51.4
52.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 v
801.3
859.1
942.5
1, 052. 4
1,153.3
1, 249. 7
1,375.4
546.5
579.4
633.8
701.3
765.0
806.7
890.4
202.5
207.8
226.7
253.5
273.9
275.3
304.8
158.2
160.3
175.4
196.2
211.4
211.7
237.0
130.1
139.3
151.9
168.1
184.4
195.6
214.9
97.9
106.8
117.9
131.0
145.9
159.9
180.0
116.0
125.6
137.3
148.6
160.9
175.8
190.7
32.0
36.2
42.0
48.7
55.5
62.5
70.1
13.9
14.3
18.0
32.0
25.8
24.9
22.8
51.2
53.4
58.1
60.4
61.1
65.3
73.8
1974: I . . .
II...
III..
IV..
1,109. 7
1,136.8
1,172.5
1,194.1
739.7
757.3
777.1
786.0
266.6
271.9
278.8
278.1
205.2
209.6
215.6
215.2
178.0
183.0
187.3
189.3
139.6
143.7
148.3
151.8
155.5
158.7
162.7
166.7
52.6
54.5
56.4
58.5
31.6
24.6
23.8
23.3
59.6
60.4
62.2
62.2
1975: I . . .
II.
ML.
IV..
1,
1,
1,
1,
203.1
230. 3
265. 5
299. 7
785.8
792.8
811.7
836.4
269.9
269.1
276.2
285.8
206.8
206.9
212.5
220.3
191.0
192.5
196.8
202.3
154.8
157.4
161.3
166.1
170.0
173.8
177.3
182.2
60.0
61.4
63.3
65.2
17.9
24.1
29.2
28.3
63.2
62.7
66.3
69.0
1976: I . . .
II...
II!
IV*
1,331.3
1, 362.0
1, 386. 0
1,422.1
861.5
881.1
897.8
921.0
295.3
302.9
307.0
314.0
229.6
235.6
238.9
243.8
208.3
212.8
216.5
221.8
172.4
176.7
182.7
188.3
185.4
188.7
191.7
197.0
67.1
69.0
71.1
73.2
21.9
27.5
21.7
20.3
71.4
72.8
74.4
76.8
See footnotes at end of table.
210
3.2
TABLE B-20.—Sources of personal income, 1929-76—Continued
(Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Rental
income
of persons
with
Year or capital Divi- Personal
quarter con- dends interest
income Total
sumption adjustment
Transfer payments
Old age,
survivors,
disability,
and health
insurance
benefits
Government
Vetunem- erans
ploybenement in- fits
surance
benefits
Government
employee
retirement
benefits
Less:
Personal Noncontrifarm
Aid to
butions
perfamilies
for
sonal
with de- Other social
inpendent
insur- come 2
children
ance
(AFDC)
1929
4.9
5.8
6.9
1.5
0.6
0.1
o
.8
1933
2.2
2.0
5.5
2.1
.6
.2
14
.2
1939....
2.6
3.8
5.4
3.0
0.0
0.4
.5
.3
17
.6
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946....
1947...
1948....
1949....
2.7
3.1
4 0
4.4
4.5
4.6
5.5
5.3
5.7
6.1
4.0
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.9
6.4
7.3
7.7
8.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.6
6.2
11.3
11.7
11.3
12.5
.0
.1
.1
.5
l!l
.8
.9
1.9
.3
.3
.3
.4
.4
.5
.7
.7
.7
.9
1
1
1
1
\l
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.5
.5
.5
.5
1.0
3.0
7.0
7.0
5.9
5.3
1950....
1951....
1952....
1953....
1954....
1955...
1956....
1957.....
1958....
1959....
7.1
7.7
8.8
10.0
11.0
11.3
11.6
12.2
12.9
13.2
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.1
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.3
12.2
8.9
9.6
10.3
11.4
12.7
13.8
15.3
17.4
18.8
20.9
15.2
12.6
13.1
14.1
16.2
17.5
18.7
21.6
25.9
27.0
1.0
1.9
2.2
3.0
3.6
4.9
5.7
7.3
8.5
10.2
1.5
.9
1.1
1.0
2.2
1.5
1.5
1.9
4.1
2.8
7.7
4.6
4.3
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.6
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.8
I960....
1961....
1962....
1963....
1964....
1965....
1966....
1967....
1968....
1969....
13.8
14.3
15.0
15.7
16.1
17.1
18.2
19.4
18.6
18.1
12.9
13.3
14.4
15.5
17.3
19.1
19.4
20.1
21.9
22.6
23.3
24.6
27.1
30.2
33.3
37.2
41.8
45.0
49.6
55.9
28.9
32.8
33.8
35.8
37.4
40.4
44.7
52.6
59.9
66.5
11.1
12.6
14.3
15.2
16.0
18.1
19.8
25.5
30.2
32.9
3.0
4.3
3.1
3.0
2.7
2.3
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.2
4.6
5.0
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.9
5.6
5.9
6.7
1970....
1971....
1972....
1973....
1974
1975....
1976 P. ..
18.6
20.1
21.5
21.6
21.0
22.4
23.5
22.9
23.0
24.6
27.8
30.8
32.1
35.1
64.3
69.3
74.6
84.1
101.4
110.7
123.1
79.9
94.1
104.1
118.9
140.3
175.2
191.3
38.5
44.5
49.6
60.4
70.1
81.4
93.0
4.0
5.8
5.6
4.3
6.6
17.3
15.6
1974:1..
II.
III.
IV.
20.9
20.6
21.0
21.5
29.9
30.7
31.3
31.1
92.9
99.7
104.8
108.2
128.8
136.3
144.2
151.8
63.7
69.1
72.6
75.0
1975: L .
II..
ill.
IV.
21.9
22.3
22.4
22.9
31.7
31.9
32.6
32.2
108.2
109.0
111.0
114.4
163.7
175.5
179.1
182.5
1976: L .
II..
III.
IV v
23.3
23.1
23.4
24.3
33.1
34.4
35.4
37.7
118.0
120.7
125.0
128.7
188.6
187.6
192.4
196.6
0.1
7
8
8
2.5
2.9
3.3
.7
.8
1.2
1.8
2.2
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
159.6
171.5
187.7
189.9
'.6
.6
.6
.7
.8
.9
3.5
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.8
2.9
3.4
3.8
4.0
4.6
5.2
5.8
6.7
6.9
7.9
209.3
234.3
252.4
269.0
272.6
294.7
316.4
335.0
342.9
367.7
3.1
3.4
3.7
4.2
4.7
5.2
6.1
6.9
7.7
8.6
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.3
2.8
3.5
6.2
6.4
6.7
7.3
7.8
8.3
10.2
10.2
11.1
12.5
9.3
9.7
10.3
11.8
12.6
13.3
17.8
20.6
22.8
26.3
384.4
399.0
424.5
447.0
480.7
519.5
566.1
609.1
667.5
725.8
7.7
8.8
9.7
10.4
11.8
14.5
15.0
10.1
11.7
13.5
15.6
18.6
22.1
25.0
4.8
6.2
6.9
7.2
7.9
9.2
9.8
14.9
17.2
18.9
21.0
25.2
30.8
32.9
28.0
30.8
34.2
42.2
47.6
50.0
54.9
5.4
6.1
6.6
8.5
10.8
11.0
12.1
13.5
17.5
18.0
19.1
19.9
7.5
7.7
8.1
8.4
23.9
24.5
25.7
26.6
46.4 ' 1,068.4
47.3 1,102.2
48.2 1,138.5
48.5 1 1,160.1
76.7
77.8
84.7
86.3
15.0
18.1
18.4
17.7
14.6
13.9
14.2
15.0
21.0
21.6
22.4
23.3
8.7
9.0
9.4
9.7
27.7
35.1
30.0
30.5
49.4 11,174.0
88.1
89.5
95.8
98.4
17.7
15.3
14.7
14.7
16.0
14.7
14.4
14.9
23.8
24.9
25.5
25.9
9.8
9.7
9.9
10.0
33.2
33.4
32.2
32.6
53.4 11,297.7
54.3 1,322.4
55.2 1,351.7
56.6 1,388.6
R
2.n
2 0
2 1
.'4
.5
.6
.6
.5
!
780.7
838.0
917.3
1,011.9
1,117.3
1,213.4
1,340.1
49.5 1,195.2
50.1 1,224.9
51.0 , 1,259.7
* The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees in Table
6-19 in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net
i nterest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
211
TABLE B-21.—Disposition of personal income, 1929-76
(Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates, except as noted]
Percent of disposable
personal income
Less: Personal outlays
Personal
income
Year or
quarter
Less:
Personal
tax
and
nontax
payments
Equals:
Disposable
personal
income
Total
PerPerInterest sonal Equals:
Personal paid by transfer sonal
conconpaysump- sumers ments saving
to
tion
to forexpend- busi- eigners
ness
itures
(net)
Personal
outlays
Total
Consumption
expenditures
Personal
saving
1929
84.9
2.6
82.3
79.1
77.3
1.5
0.3
3.1
96.2
93.9
3.8
1933
46.9
1.4
45.5
46.5
45.8
.5
.2
-1.0
102.2
100.7
-2.2
1939
72.4
2.4
69.9
67.8
67.0
.7
.2
2.1
97.0
95.8
3.0
77.8
95.3
122.4
150.7
164.4
169.8
177.3
189.8
208.5
205.6
2.6
3.3
5.9
17 8
18.9
20.8
18 7
21.4
21.0
18.5
75.2
92.0
116.5
132.9
145.5
149.0
158.6
168.4
187.4
187.1
72.0
81.8
89.4
100.1
109.0
120.4
145.2
163.5
176.9
180.4
71.0
80.8
88.6
99.4
108.2
119.5
143.8
161.7
174.7
178.1
.8
.9
.5
.5
.5
.7
1.0
1.4
1.7
.2
.2
.1
.2
.4
.5
.7
< .7
.7
.5
3.3
10.2
27.0
32.7
36.5
28.5
13.4
4.9
10.6
6.7
95.6
88.9
76.8
75.4
74.9
80.8
91.5
97.1
94.3
96.4
94.3
87.7
76.1
74.8
74.4
80.2
90.6
96.1
93.2
95.2
4.4
11.1
23.2
24.6
25.1
19.2
8.5
2.9
5.7
3.6
226.1
253.7
270.4
286.1
288.2
308.8
330.9
349.3
359.3
382.1
20 6
28.9
34.0
35.5
32.5
35.4
39.7
42.4
42.1
46.0
205.5
224.8
236.4
250.7
255.7
273.4
291.3
306.9
317.1
336.1
194.7
210.0
220.4
233.7
240.1
258.5
271.6
286.4
295.4
317.3
192.0
207.1
217.1
229.7
235.8
253.7
266.0
280.4
289.5
310.8
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.6
3.8
4.4
5.1
5.5
5.6
6.1
.4
.4
.4
.5
.5
.5
.5
.4
.4
10.8
14.8
16.0
17.0
15.6
14.9
19.7
20.6
21.7
18.8
94.7
93.4
93.2
93.2
93.9
94.6
93.2
93.3
93.2
94.4
93.4
92.1
91.8
91.6
92.2
92.8
91.3
91.4
91.3
92.5
5.3
6.6
6.8
6.8
6.1
5.4
6.8
6.7
6.8
5.6
399.7
415.0
440.7
463.1
495.7
537.0
584.9
626.6
685.2
745.8
50.4
52.1
56.8
60.3
58.6
64.9
74.5
82.1
97.1
115.4
349.4
362.9
383.9
402.8
437.0
472.2
510.4
544.5
588.1
630.4
332.3
342.7
363.5
384.0
410.9
441.9
477.4
503.7
550.1
595.3
324.9
335.0
355.2
374.6
400.4
430.2
464.8
490.4
535.9
579.7
7.0
7.3
7.8
8.8
9.9
11.1
12.0
12.5
13.3
14.7
.4
.4
.5
.6
.6
.7
.6
.9
.8
.9
17.1
20.2
20.4
18.8
26.1
30.3
33.0
40.9
38.1
35.1
95.1
94.4
94.7
95.3
94.0
93.6
93.5
92.5
93.5
94.4
93.0
92.3
92.5
93.0
91.6
91.1
91.1
90.0
91.1
92.0
4.9
5.6
5.3
4.7
6.0
6.4
6.5
7.5
6.5
5.6
1940
1941..
1942
1943
1944.
1945
1946
1947.
1948
1949
1950
1951 .
1952..
1953
1954.
1955
1956
1957..
1958
1959..
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967..
1968
1969
..
.
..
..
.
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 v
801.3
859.1
942.5
1, 052.4
1,153.3
1, 249.7
1, 375.4
635.4
618.8
115.3
685.9
685.5
668.2
116.3
742.8
141.2
801.3
751.9
733.0
831.3
809.9
901.7
150.8
910.7
887.5
170.4
982.9
996.9
973.2
168.8 1, 080.9
193.6 1,181.8 1,104.0 1,078.6
15.5
16.2
17.9
20.2
22.2
22.8
24.4
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.0
.9
1.1
50.6
57.3
49.4
70.3
72.2
84.0
77.8
92.6
92.3
93.8
92,2
92.7
92.2
93.4
90.2
90.0
91.5
89.8
90.3
90.0
91.3
7.4
7.7
6.2
7.8
7.3
7.8
6.6
1974:1....
II....
III...
IV...
1,109.7
1,136.8
1,172.5
1,194.1
948.4
161.3
969.5
167.4
998.0
174.5
178.3 1,015.8
853.3
878.7
906.8
911.1
21.4
21.9
22.6
22.9
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
72.6
67.8
67.6
80.8
92.3
93.0
93.2
92.0
90.0
90.6
90.9
89.7
7.7
7.0
6.8
8.0
1975:1....
II.—
III...
IV...
1,203.1
lf 230. 3
1,265. 5
1, 299.7
179.3
142.2
174.0
179.8
933.2
956.7
1,023.8
983.6
960.3
1, 088.2
1,091.5 1,011.1
987.3
1,119.9 1, 036.2 1,012.0
22.5
22.4
22.8
23.3
.9
.9
.9
.9
67.2
104.5
80.5
83.7
93.4
90.4
92.6
92.5
91.2
88.2
90.5
90.4
6.6
9.6
7.4
7.5
1976: 1
II....
III...
IV*>_.
1,331.3
1, 362. 0
1, 386.0
1, 422.1
183.8
189.5
195.8
205.3
1,147.6
1,172.5
1,190.2
1,216.9
1,043.6
1,064.7
1, 088.5
1,117.5
23.4
23.9
24.8
25.5
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
79.5
82.9
75.8
72.9
93.1
92.9
93.6
94.0
90.9
90.8
91.5
91.8
6.9
7.1
6.4
6.0
875.8
901.6
930.4
935.0
1, 068.0
1, 089.6
1,114.3
1,144. 0
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
212
TABLE B-22.—Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures in current and 1972 dollars, 1929-76
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates, except as noted]
Disposable personal income
Year or quarter
Total (billions
of dollars)
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Personal consumption expenditures
Per capita
(dollars)
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Total (billions
of dollars)
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Per capita
(dollars)
Current
dollars
Population
(thou- l
sands)
1972
dollars
1929..
82.3
229.8
675
1,886
77.3
215.6
634
1,769
121, 875
1933..
45.5
169.7
362
1,350
45.8
170.7
364
1,358
125.690
1939-
69.9
230.1
534
1,756
67.0
220.3
511
1, 681
131, 028
1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
1945..
1946..
194719481949-
75.2
92.0
116.5
132.9
145.5
149.0
158.6
168.4
187.4
187.1
244.3
278.1
317.3
332.2
343.9
338.6
332.4
318.8
335.5
336.1
570
690
863
972
1,051
1,065
1,122
1,168
1,278
1,254
1,849
2,084
2,353
2,429
2,485
2,420
2,351
2,212
2,288
2,253
71.0
80.8
88.6
99.4
108.2
119.5
143.8
161.7
174.7
178.1
230.4
244.1
241.7
248.7
255.7
271.4
301.4
306.2
312.8
320.0
537
605
657
727
781
854
1,017
1,122
1,192
1,194
1,744
1,830
1,792
1,819
1,847
1,939
2,131
2,124
2,133
2,145
132,122
133, 402
134, 860
136, 739
138, 397
139,928
141,389
144,126
146, 631
149,188
1950..
19511952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
19571958..
1959..
205.5
224.8
236.4
250.7
255.7
273.4
291.3
306.9
317.1
336.1
361.9
371.6
382.1
397.5
402.1
425.9
444.9
453.9
459.0
477.4
1,355
1,457
1,506
1,571
1,574
1,654
1,731
1,792
1,821
1,898
2,386
2,408
2,434
2,491
2,476
2,577
2,643
2,650
2,636
2,696
192.0
207.1
217.1
229.7
235.8
253.7
266.0
280.4
289.5
310.8
338.1
342.3
350.9
364.2
370.9
395.1
406.3
414.7
419.0
441.5
1,266
1,342
1,383
1,439
1,452
1,535
1,581
1,637
1,662
1,755
2,229
2,219
2,236
2,283
2,284
2,391
2,415
2,421
2,406
2,493
151, 684
154,287
156,954
159, 565
162,391
165,275
168,221
171, 274
174,141
177,073
I960..
1961_.
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
349.4
362.9
383.9
402.8
437.0
472.2
510.4
544.5
588.1
630.4
487.3
500.6
521.6
539.2
577.3
612.4
643.6
669.8
695.2
712.3
1,934
1,976
2,058
2,128
2,278
2,430
2,597
2,740
2 930
3,111
2,697
2,725
2,796
2,849
3,009
3,152
3,274
3,371
3,464
3,515
324.9
335.0
355.2
374.6
400.4
430.2
464.8
490.4
535.9
579.7
453.0
462.2
482.9
501.4
528.7
558.1
586.1
603.2
633.4
655.4
1,798
1,824
1,904
1,979
2,087
2,214
2,365
2,468
2,670
2,860
2,507
2,516
2,589
2,649
2,755
2,872
2,982
3,035
3,156
3,234
180, 671
183.691
186,538
189,242
191,889
194,303
196,560
198,712
200,706
202,677
685.9
742.8
801.3
901.7
982.9
1,080.9
1,181.8
741.6
769.0
801.3
854.7
840.8
855.5
890.7
3,348
3,588
3,837
4,285
4,639
5,062
5,494
3,619
3 714
3,837
4,062
3,968
4,007
4,141
618.8
668.2
733.0
809.9
887.5
973.2
1,078.6
668.9
691.9
733.0
767.7
759.1
770.3
812.9
3,020
3,227
3,510
3,849
4,188
4,558
5,014
3,265
3,342
3,510
3,648
3,582
3,608
3,779
204,878
207,053
208, 846
210,410
211,901
213, 540
215,118
948.4
969.5
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976 P..
1974:1
IIIII.
IV..
998.0
1,015.8
846.7
840.6
841.7
834.0
4,487
4,579
4,705
4,779
4,006
3,970
3,968
3,923
853.3
878.7
906.8
911.1
761.8
761.9
764.7
748.1
4,037
4,151
4,275
4,286
3,604
3,599
3,605
3,519
211,361
211, 705
212,134
212, 578
1975:1—
II..
111.
IV..
1, 023. 8
"., 088.2
., 091.5
,119.9
827.9
869.7
857.1
867.5
4,809
5,102
5,105
5,227
3,889
4,078
4,009
4,049
933.2
960.3
987.3
1,012.0
754.6
767.5
775.3
783.9
4,383
4,503
4,618
4,724
3,545
3,599
3,626
3,659
212, 897
213, 278
213, 805
214, 245
1976:1..
II.
,147.6
, 172.5
, 190.2
1,216.9
880.4
890.5
892.0
900.2
5,347
5,455
5,526
5,639
4,103
4,143
4,142
4,171
1,043.6
1, 064.7
1, 088. 5
1,117.5
800.7
808.6
815.7
826.6
4,863
4,954
5,054
5,178
3,731
3,762
3,788
3,830
214, 599
214,926
215, 355
215, 805
IV *
» Population of the United States including Armed Forces overseas; includes Alaska and Hawaii beginning 1960. Annual
data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
213
T A B L E B-23.—Gross saving and investment, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross saving
Gross investment
Government surplus or
deficit ( - ) , national
Capital
income and product
grants
accounts
received
by the Total
United
State States,
Per- Gross
Fed(net) 2
and
sonal busi- Total
eral
ness
local
saving saving*
Gross private saving
Year or
quarter
Total
Total
Gross
private
Net
domes- foreign
tic in- investvestment3
ment
Statistical
discrepancy
1929
15.9
14.9
3.1
11.7
1.0
1.2
-0.2
17.0
16.2
0.8
1933
.9
2.2
-1.0
3.2
-1.4
-1.3
-.1
1.6
1.4
.2
.7
87
10.9
2.1
8.8
-2.2
-2.2
.0
10.1
93
.9
14
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
13.5
18.5
10.5
5.3
2.3
5.1
34 6
41.2
49 0
34.8
14.2
22.2
41.9
49.4
54.1
44.6
29.2
26.8
40.6
38.2
3.3
10.2
27.0
32.7
36.5
28.5
13 4
4.9
10 6
6.7
10.9
12.0
14.8
16.7
17.7
16.0
15.8
21.8
30.0
31.4
-.7
-3.8
-31.4
-44.1
-51.8
-39.5
5.4
14.4
8.4
-3.4
-1.3
-5.1
-33.1
-46.6
-54.5
-42.1
3.5
13.4
8.3
-2.6
.6
1.3
1.8
2.5
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.0
14.6
19.0
9.7
3.5
5.1
9.2
35.3
42.9
47.8
35.9
13.1
17.9
9.9
5.8
7.2
10.6
30 7
34.0
45 9
35.3
1.5
1.1
1.1
-1.1
-2.1
-1.4
4.6
9.0
2.0
.6
-.8
-1.8
2.7
4.1
.7
1.8
-1 2
1.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956 .
1957
1958
1959
49.7
55.5
49 3
48.1
49 4
65.6
73.6
72.6
60 4
75.8
41.6
49.4
53 1
55.0
56 5
62.4
68.4
71.7
73.0
77.3
10.8
14.8
16 0
17.0
15 6
14.9
19.7
20.6
21 7
18.8
9.2
8.0
30.8
6.5
6.1
34.6
37.1 - 3 . 8 - 3 . 7
38.0 - 6 . 9 - 7 . 1
41 0 - 7 . 1 - 6 . 0
4.4
3.1
47.5
6.1
5.2
48.7
2.3
.9
51.1
51.3 - 1 2 . 6 - 1 0 . 3
58.5 - 1 . 6 - 1 . 1
-1.2
51.7
59.5
51.9
51.4
52.4
68.0
72.8
72.8
62.0
75.5
53.8
59.2
52 1
53.3
52 7
68.4
71.0
69.2
61.9
77.6
-2.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
78 9
75 8
83 6
89 6
100 1
115.4
122.9
120 3
130 8
147 5
75.8
80.0
87.4
88.9
102.4
114.9
124.2
134.6
136 3
136.8
17 1
20.2
20 4
18 8
26 1
30.3
33.0
40 9
38 1
35.1
3.0
3.1
58.7
59.8 - 4 . 3 - 3 . 9
67 0 - 3 . 8 - 4 . 2
.3
.7
70.1
76.2 - 2 . 3 - 3 . 3
.5
84.6
91.2 - 1 . 3
93.7 -14.2 - 1 3 . 2
98 2 - 5 . 5 - 5 . 8
8.5
10.7
101.7
.1
-.4
.5
.5
1.0
-.0
78.2
77.3
87.6
93.4
102.3
116.3
126.1
122.1
130.2
144.2
76.4
74.3
85.2
90.2
96.6
112.0
124.5
120.8
131.5
146.2
1.7
3.0
2.4
3.2
5.7
4.3
1.6
1.2
-1.4
-2.0
1
1.6
40
3.7
2.2
.9
3.2
1.7
— 6
-3.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975 . .
1976P
143.4
155 4
177.5
216.8
205.3
191.2
231.9
151.9
173.0
180.4
210. 5
211.6
255.6
276.4
50.6
57 3
49.4
70.3
72.2
84.0
77.8
2.8
3.7
13.7
13.0
7.3
6.9
13.9
0.9
.7
.7
.0
4-2.0
.0
.0
141.4
156.8
179.2
219.4
211.9
195.6
239.5
140.8
160.0
188.3
220.0
215.0
183.7
241.2
.5
-3.2
-9.0
-.6
-3.0
11.9
-1.7
-2.1
13
1.7
2.6
6.6
4.4
7.6
213.0
206.5
in".".".". 200.0
IV.... 201.7
1975: 1
172.1
I I . . . . 180.2
III.... 204.6
IV.... 208.0
216.4
206.4
201.0
222.4
72.6
67.8
67.6
80.8
101.4 - 9 . 4 -12.1
115 7 - 1 8 . 3 - 2 2 . 0
131.0 - 3 . 5 - 1 7 . 3
6.3 - 6 . 7
140.2
139.4 - 4 . 2 - 1 1 . 5
171.6 - 6 4 . 4 —71.2
198.6 - 4 4 . 5 - 5 8 . 3
4.7 - 4 . 1
143.8
-7.6
138.6
133.4 -l'.O - 9 . 0
141.6 - 2 0 . 8 - 2 5 . 3
8.7
7.8
8.0
4.5
4-8.0
.0
.0
.0
215.4
213.6
207.7
211.0
216.4
218.8
213.3
211.5
-1.0
-5.2
-5.6
-.5
2.4
7.1
7.7
9.3
217.0
273.2
262.7
269.4
67.2
104.5
80.5
83.7
-45.0
-92.9
-58.1
-61.5
-49.8
-99.9
-66.0
-69.4
4.7
6.9
7.9
7.9
.0
.0
.0
.0
178.5
180.3
209.8
214.0
172.4
164.4
196.7
201.4
6.1
15.9
13.1
12.6
6.4
222.1
1976: 1
234.2
II
III.... 234.2
273.8
279.1
278.9
273.6
79.5
82.9
75.8
72.9
194.3 -51.6 —63.8
'96. 2 - 4 4 . 9 -54.1
203.1 -44.7 -57.4
12.2
9.2
12.7
.0
.0
.0
.0
229.4
240.0
242.9
245.8
229.6
239.2
247.0
249.0
-.2
.8
-4.1
-3.2
7.2
5.8
8.7
1939...
...
1974: 1
149.8
168.7
182.2
185.7
-.7
-.0
.1
-1.1
-1.3
-.9
-1.4
-2.4
-.4
-1.1
3
2.1
2
-1.9
_ 3
~L8
3.6
-2.0
1.1
2.0
4.0
27
3.3
30
2.5
g
2
17
5*.l
6.1
1
1 Undistributed corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, corporate and noncorporate capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment, and private wage accruals less disbursements.
2
Allocations of special drawing rights (SDR), except as noted in footnote 4.
3 Net exports of goods and services less net transfers to foreigners and interest paid by government to foreigners plus
capital grants received by the United States, net.
< In February 1974, the U.S. Government paid to India $2,010 million (quarterly rate) in rupees under provisions of the
Agricultural Trade Development and Assistance Act. This transaction is being treated as capita! grants paid to foreigners,
and is included in the first quarter of 1974 as—$8.0 (annual rate) in capital grants received by the United States.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
214
TABLE B-24.—Saving by individuals, 1946-76
l
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Increase in financial assets
Net investment in
Less:Increase in
net debt
Securities
Year or
quarter
Total
Currency
and
Total 2 demand
deposits
5.6
InsurNon- Mortance
cor- gage
SavCorpoNon- Conand
debt Conings Gov- rate Corposumer popen- farm
rate
on sumer Other
ernacduand
rate
sion homes rables busi- non- credit debt*
counts ment forness farm
secu- eign equi- reassets homes
rities' bonds ties' serves
(5)
6.3
3.4
?.?
2.6
-1.4 -0.9
1.6 - . 8
1.3 - . 1
1.8 - . 4
1946
1947
1948
1949
16.5
20 6
18.7
14.3
18.9
13.2
9.0
9.9
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
19.1
26.3
25.6
26.7
24.3
13.7
19.1
?3 1
??.6
22.1
2.6
4.6
1.6
1.0
2.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
29.7
32.6
31.8
30.5
33.3
?7.9
30.0
28.6
31.6
37.1
1.2
1.8
-.4
3.8
.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
30.7 31.9
30.9 35.8
35 7 39 6
40.0 46 5
48.7 55.2
1.0
-.9
-1.2
-.5
4.9
]?.]
18.3
26.2
26.3
26.2
3.3
1.9
1.3
6.4
5.4
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
55.0
62.9
64.2
67.6
57.9
58.4
59.4
67.9
73.2
61.5
7.5
2.4
9.9
11.1
2.5
28.0
19.1
35.3
31.1
9.1
4.0
11.0
-.6
5.6
19.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
74.7
91.5
102.0
121.7
115.3
78.7
104.4
127.6
143.0
137.7
8.9
9.1
14.8
12.7
5.1
43.6 - 8 . 9
67.8 -10.7
1.7
71.0
67.9 23.5
18.3
57.9
1975
131.2 167.8
1975: 1
II
lit
IV
108.7
149.1
134.5
132.9
1976: 1
II . .
IN. . .
135.2 176.4
131.2 180.1
123.9 182.7
f
.
.
134.8
187.2
163.9
185.9
-2.9
-2.0
?.5
4.8
7.8
8 ?
9.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
.7
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.6
-3.0
9.7
6.3
6.8
5.8
73
6.9
6.7
1.2
7
7.1
.6
3.6
4 7
4.6
4.4
2.7
3 2
2.9
2 9
0.1
25
3.2
2 4
^-.1
-.6
2.5
2.5
1.0
-.8
.2
-.0
-.1
-.9
.7
1.8
1.6
1.0
.8
6.9
6.3
7.7
7.9
7.8
8.3
11.0
11.8
12.1
13.2
9.3
4.9
3.0
4.7
3.5
4.1
3.1
1.9
.9
1.4
fi,7
6.6
6.6
7.5
91
4.1
12
4.8
3.9
1 l
5.4
3 9
?8
2.3
5 7
8 6
5.8
9.5
3.9
2.3
12.0
13.9 - 2 . 5
9.1
11.1
.7
1.0
.9
1.2
.4
1.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
.6
8.5
9.5
9.5
10.4
11.9
16.1
15.5
13.3
12.5
15.4
8.0
4.6
3.3
.4
4.0
2.8
.7
2.1
21
3.8
11.7
11.2
9.0
98
12 4
6.4
3.5
2 6
?
6 4
7.0
3.5
4.0
62
8 0
.7
-.5
-.1
4 -2'.1
.1 - 2 . 5
-.5
-.1
11.5
12.1
12 7
13.9
16.1
14.1
12.5
12.6
13.6
13.6
3.3
.9
45
6.9
8.8
3.2
3.1
64
8.4
7.9
11.6
12.6
13 9
16.4
17.2
4.6
1.8
58
8.5
5.6
6.9
7 6
11.1
11.1
.5 - 2 . 1
-.7
1.4
4.0 - 4 . 2
4.2 - 6 . 5
5.4 - 4 . 5
16.9
19.2
19.0
20.2
21.3
13.5
12.0
12.0
13.9
13.8
12.0
12.9
10.2
14.4
13.7
11 2 17 1
9.7 13.4
7.9 13.4
9 3 16 8
11.0 18.2
9 6
6.4
4.5
10 0
10.4
13 5
11.4
15.8
16 4
13.5
9.5
8.3
4.2
.9
5.3
-.8
-3.7
-4.5
-6.9
-1.2
24.4
27.3
29.2
32.8
36.0
12.4
18.9
25.9
27.9
23.2
7.9
13.9
21.5
25.4
11.1
8.8
13.0
17.2
19.4
3.3
14.7
27.1
41.5
47.0
35.3
5.9
11.6
18.6
21.7
9.8
12.5
19.9
30.2
25.4
15.0
14.4
10.4 - 1 . 8
43.7
20.4
8.1
-2.4
39.4
8.5
14.8
-14.8 80.6 - 4 . 9
40.8 83.1
9.4
11.5 74.5 28.5
-10.0 101.5 24.5
15.0 - 4 . 2
1.4
12.1
8.5 - 3 . 7
6.0 - . 6
40.0
41.8
43.5
50.2
18.2
18.5
21.0
24.0
3.5
5.0
10.4
13.4
-2.0
-4.4
-1.8
-1.5
28.5
38.5
42.2
48.2
.9
1.3
14.3
17.7
16.4
17.4
2.4
23.1
2.3 - 7 . 7
9.7
3.8
2.3 - 7 . 9
52.6
48.8
49.1
29.4
32.5
35,1
19.2
.5
18.8 - 4 . 5
17.8 - 6 . 2
51.5
53.2
60.6
18.1
20.6
19.2
20.7
21.8
25.6
6.9
84.9
8.9 87.2
- 1 . 4 79.2
3.8 112.5
13.9
27.6
10.8
i. 9
1 Saving by households, personal trust funds, nonprofit institutions, farms, and other noncorporate business.
Includes commercial paper and miscellaneous financial assets, not shown separately.
Consists of U.S. savings bonds, other U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. Government agency securities and sponsored
agency securities, and State and local obligations.
4
Includes investment company shares.
6
Private life insurance reserves, private insured and noninsured pension reserves, and government insurance and
pension reserves.
6
Security credit, policy loans, noncorporate business mortgage debt, and other debt.
2
3
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
215
TABLE B~25.- -Number and money income {in 1975 dollars) ojfamilies
by race of head, 1947-75
Total
Total
number
Year
(milions)
FAMILIES
1947
1948
37 2
38.6
39.3
39.9
40 6
40.8
41.2
42 0
42.9
43.5
43.7
44.2
45.1
45.5
. . . 46.4
47.1
47.5
48.0
48.5
49.2
50.1
50.8
51.6
52.2
53.3
54.4
55.1
55.7
55.7
56.2
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957.
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965.
1966
1967
....
.
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
19742
1975.
.
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
19742..
1975
. .
Total
num- Median
Median Be- Below ber
income Be- Below
pov- (milincome low
povlow
erty lions)
erty
$5,000 level
$5,000 level
29 3
30.5
31.8
29.4
27.0
25.5
23.9
25 3
22.9
20.9
21.2
21.3
20.1
19.7
19.7
18.4
17.5
16.6
15.6
13.6
13.3
11.8
11.4
12.0
11.9
11.2
10.8
11.5
11.1
12.0
34 1
35 3
$7 608
1 400
8.2
8.4
9.0
9.4
9.1
9.7
9.5
9 7
9 9
9.8
.
10 4
10.9
10.9
Ul.l
U1.2
U1.0
111.2
. . U2.1
112.2
U2.5
113.2
U3.9
114.6
U5.5
16.3
16.8
18.3
18.9
18.9
20.2
$2, 362
2,228
2,370
2,336
2 475
2,858
2,809
2 447
2 648
2,823
2 856
2,766
2,875
3,126
3,155
3,119
3,165
3,441
3,672
3,798
3,835
4,310
4,303
4,348
4,407
4,530
5,007
4,845
5,025
4,882
26 0
27 4
7'296
18.5
18.1
18.1
17.2
15.9
15.0
13.9
11 8
11.4
10.0
9.7
10.1
10.0
9.3
8.8
9.2
8.8
9.7
38 2
39 0
39 5
39.7
40.2
40.9
41.1
41.9
42.4
42.7
43.1
43.5
44 1
44.8
45.4
46.0
46.5
47.6
48.5
48.9
49.5
49.4
49.9
26 5
23 9
22 2
21 4
22 8
20 3
18 1
18 4
18.5
17.2
17.2
17.1
15.9
14.9
14.5
13.5
11 8
11.6
10.2
9.9
10.3
10.3
9.5
9.1
9.6
9.2
10.2
46.1
45.2
45.9
45.4
44.2
42.7
39.8
38.3
38.1
34.0
34.0
32.9
31.6
29.0
25.6
25.5
24.1
29.7
25.1
(millions)
3 1
3 3
28 8
7 702
7 996
8'343
8* 851
8 687
9 271
9 906
9 882
9 866
10, 420
10, 604
10, 760
11,098
11,511
11,900
12,370
12 977
13,273
13, 826
14, 379
14,188
14,182
14, 858
15,254
14, 577
14,633
14,268
Total
number
3
3
4
4
8
9
0
0
4.0
15.2
14.9
14.8
13.9
12.8
12.2
11.1
9 3
9.0
8.0
7.7
8.0
7.9
7.1
6.6
7.0
6.8
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.8
4.8
5 0
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.3
7.7
6.4
Percent with
incomes
Median
income
$3 888
3'953
3 726
4 178
4 210
4 741
4 962
4 839
5 113
5' 211
5 284
5,054
5,382
5,871
5,741
5,921
6,090
6,660
6,812
7 780
8,212
8,648
9,089
9,032
8,923
9,142
9,200
9,020
9,361
9,321
Below
Bepovlow
erty
$3, 000 level
7.2
7.3
58.2
60.0
57.2
56.8
54 6
51.8
51.9
55 9
54 4
52 1
51 6
52.5
51.6
49.3
49.0
49.3
48.7
46.3
43.6
42.5
42.2
38.2
37.9
37.4
36.4
34.3
30.7
31.2
29.8
8.3
8 5
8.5
8 9
9.2
9.3
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.7
10.4
10.5
10.7
11.3
12.0
12.5
13.4
14.2
14.5
15.8
16.3
16.3
17.5
$2, 495
2,354
2,559
2,492
2 606
3,079
2 964
2 634
2 815
2 898
3 055
2,964
3,072
3 380
3,392
3,337
3,318
3,624
3,830
3,994
3,982
4,567
4,519
4,551
4,605
4,731
5,172
5,060
5,205
5,099
individuals
Black and other race s
Percent with
incomes
Be- Below
povlow
erty
$3, 000 level
UNRELATED
INDIVIDUALS
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
White
Percent with
incomes
$7, 303
7,126
7,016
7,422
7 684
7,888
8,536
8 345
8,881
9,466
9,496
9,469
10, 003
10,214
10,318
10, 597
10, 984
11,398
11,867
12, 491
12,788
13,354
13, 849
13,676
13, 668
14,301
14, 595
14, 009
14, 082
13,719
and unrelated
56.1
58.3
55.1
55.2
53.5
49.3
50.4
54.0
52 3
51.2
49 8
50.6
49.7
47.2
46.6
46.9
47.0
44.7
42.2
40.6
40.7
36 6
36.2
35.7
34.5
32.6
?9.0
29.0
27.8
27.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.5
22.7
64 3
63 4
65 9
60 4
59 3
53 4
50 5
51 4
49 1
48 2
48 1
49 8
47.1
43.4
44.5
41.8
40.9
35.8
34.5
30 0
28.9
26.0
25.0
26.0
26.1
26.1
25.1
26.6
25.7
26.3
Below
poverty
level
50.4
49.0
49.0
48.0
43.7
40.0
39.7
33 9
32.1
28.2
26.9
28.1
27.4
27.7
26.2
26.0
25.1
25.3
Be- Below
povlow
erty
$3, 000 level
1.0
1.0
44.1
43.0
43.2
42.7
42.0
40.7
38.1
36.1
36.5
32.2
32.1
30.8
29.6
27.1
23.7
23.2
21.8
Below
$5,000
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.8
2.0
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.7
$1,798
1,764
1,850
1,826
1,925
2,130
2,331
1,749
1,880
2,152
1,941
2,010
1,984
1,940
2,082
2,228
2,277
2,483
2,792
2,511
2,942
3,093
3,186
3,109
3,090
3,514
3,865
3,437
3,638
3,528
72.3
71.8
69.5
67.5
61.2
66.3
59.2
65.6
66.4
57.5
62.8
63.8
63.4
62.8
63.3
63.5
60.4
56.0
52.7
55.2
51.2
49.0
48.3
49.1
49.2
44.5
41.4
44.9
42.6
44.4
57.4
59. 3
62.7
62.1
58 3
55.0
50.7
53.1
48.2
45.7
45.5
46.7
44.9
40.9
37.8
40.0
38.0
40.9
1 Revised using population controls based on the 1970 Census. Such controls not available by race.
2
Based on revised methodology procedures.
Note.—The poverty level is based on the poverty index adopted by a Federal interagency committee in 1969. That
index reflects different consumption requirements for families based on size and composition, sex and age of family head,
and farm-nonfarm residence. The poverty threshold is updated every year to reflect changes in the consumer price index.
For further details, see "Current Population Reports," Series P-60, No. 103, Bureau of the Census.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
216
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
PRODUCTIVITY
TABLE B-26.—Population by age groups, 1929-76
[Thousands of persons]
Age (years)
July 1
Total
Under 5
1929
121,767
11,734
1933 .
125, 579
10,612
5-15
x
16-19
20-24
25-44
45-64
65 and
over
26,800
9,127
10, 694
35, 862
21, 076
6,474
26, 897
9,302
11,152
37, 319
22,933
7,363
1939
130, 880
10,418
25,179
9,822
11,519
39, 354
25, 823
8,764
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
132,122
133, 402
134, 860
136, 739
138, 397
10, 579
10,850
11,301
12,016
12, 524
24,811
24, 516
24, 231
24, 093
23,949
9,895
9,840
9,730
9,607
9,561
11,690
11,807
11,955
12, 064
12,062
39, 868
40, 383
40,861
41,420
42, 016
26, 249
26,718
27,196
27, 671
28,138
9,031
9,288
9,584
9,867
10,147
1945
1946
1947 . . . .
1948
1949
139,928
141 389
144,126
146 631
149,188
12,979
13, 244
14,406
14 919
15, 607
23, 907
24,103
24,468
25 209
25, 852
9,361
9,119
9,097
8 952
8,788
12,036
12, 004
11,814
11,794
11,700
42, 521
43, 027
43,657
44, 288
44,916
28, 630
29, 064
29,498
29, 931
30, 405
10, 494
10,828
11,185
11,538
11,921
1950
1951
1952 ..
1953
1954
152,271
154 878
157, 553
160 184
163, 026
16,410
17,333
17,312
17, 638
18, 057
26, 721
27, 279
28, 894
30 227
31, 480
8,542
8,446
8,414
8 460
8,637
11,680
11,552
11,350
11,062
10,832
45, 672
46,103
46, 495
46, 786
47, 001
30. 849
31,362
31,884
32, 394
32, 942
12,397
12,803
13, 203
13,617
14, 076
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 .
165 931
168 903
171, 984
174 882
177, 830
18, 566
19, 003
19, 494
19, 887
20,175
32, 682
33, 994
35, 272
36, 445
37, 368
8 744
8,916
9,195
9,543
10,215
10,714
10,616
10,603
10,756
10, 969
47,194
47, 379
47, 440
47, 337
47,192
33, 506
34, 057
34, 591
35,109
35, 663
14,525
14,938
15,388
15, 806
16, 248
1960 .
1961....
1962
1963 _ _
.
1964
180,671
183,691
186 538
189, 242
191,889
20, 341
20,522
20, 469
20, 342
20,165
38, 494
39,765
41,205
41,626
42,297
10,683
11,025
11,180
12,007
12,736
11,134
11,483
11,959
12,714
13, 269
47,140
47, 084
47,013
46, 994
46, 958
36,203
36,722
37,255
37, 782
38, 338
16,675
17,089
17,457
17,778
18,127
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
194, 303
196, 560
198 712
200, 706
202,677
19,824
19,208
18, 563
17,913
17, 376
42, 938
43,702
44, 244
44,622
44, 840
13,516
14,311
14, 200
14, 452
14, 800
13,746
14,050
15,248
15, 786
16,480
46, 912
47,001
47,194
47,721
48, 064
38,916
39, 534
40,193
40, 846
41,437
18,451
18,755
19,071
19,365
19,680
1970
1971
1972
1973 ...
1974
204, 878
207,053
208 846
210,410
211,901
17,148
17,177
16,990
16, 694
16, 288
44,774
44, 441
43,948
43,227
42, 538
15,275
15,635
15,946
16,310
16, 590
17,184
18,089
18,032
18, 345
18, 741
48, 435
48,811
50, 254
51,411
52, 593
41,975
42,413
42,785
43,077
43, 319
20 087
20, 488
20, 892
21,346
21,833
1975
1976
213, 540
215,118
15, 882
15, 339
41, 956
41, 454
16, 793
16, 934
19, 229
19, 630
53, 733
55,120
43, 542
43, 707
22, 405
22, 934
Note.—Includes Armed Forces overseas beginning 1940. Includes Alaska and Hawaii beginning 1950.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
217
TABLE B-27.—Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-76
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Year or month
Noninstitutional
population i
Total
labor
force
(including
Armed
Forces)
Civilian labor force
Armed
Forces 1
Employment
Total
Total
Agricultural
Nonagricultural
Unemployment
Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over
Labor
force
particiUnem- pation
rate
ploy(total
ment
labor
rate
(percent force as
percent
of
civilian of noninstitulabor
tional
force)
population)
Percent
1929
49,440
260
49,180
47,630
10,450" 37,180
1,550
3.2
1933
51, 840
250
51, 590
38, 760
10, 090
28, 670
12, 830
24.9
55, 600
370
55, 230
45, 750
9,610
36,140
9,480
17.2
100,380
101,520
102,610
103,660
104,630
56,180
57,530
60,380
64,560
66,040
540
1,620
3,970
9,020
11,410
55,640
55,910
56,410
55,540
54,630
47,520
50,350
53, 750
54,470
53,960
9,540
9,100
9,250
9,080
8,950
37,980
41,250
44,500
45,390
45,010
8,120
5,560
2,660
1,070
670
14.6
9.9
4.7
1.9
1.2
56.0
56.7
58.8
62.3
63.1
105,530
106,520
107, 608
65,300
60,970
61,758
11,440
3,450
1,590
53,860
57,520
60,168
52,820
55,250
57,812
8,580
8,320
8,256
44,240
46,930
49,557
1,040
2,270
2,356
1.9
3.9
3.9
61.9
57.2
57.4
1939
1940..
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
_.
Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over
1947
1948
1949
103,418
104 527
105', 611
60,941
62 080
62,903
1,591
1 459
1,617
59,350
60 621
61,286
57,038
58 343
57,651
7,890
7 629
7,658
49,148
50 714
49,993
2,311
2 276
3,637
3.9
3.8
5.9
58.9
59.4
59.6
1950..
1951
1952
1953 2
1954
106,645
107,721
108 823
110,601
111,671
63,858
65,117
65 730
66,560
66,993
1,650
3,100
3 592
3,545
3,350
62,208
62,017
62 138
63,015
63,643
58,918
59,961
60 250
61,179
60,109
7,160
6,726
6 500
6,260
6,205
51,758
53, 235
53 749
54,919
53,904
3,288
2,055
1 883
1,834
3,532
5.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.5
59.9
60.4
60.4
60.2
60.0
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
112 732
113,'811
115,065
116,363
117,881
68 072
69,409
69,729
70, 275
70,921
3 049
2,857
2,800
2,636
2,552
65 023
66,552
66,929
67,639
68, 369
62 170
63,799
64,071
63,036
64, 630
6 450
6,283
5,947
5,586
5,565
55 722
57,514
58,123
57,450
59,065
2 852
2,750
2,859
4,602
3,740
4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5.5
60.4
61.0
60.6
60.4
60.2
I960 2
1961
1962 2
1963
1964
119,759
121 343
122,981
125,154
127, 224
72,142
73,031
73,442
74,571
75,830
2,514
2 572
2,828
2,738
2,739
69,628
70 459
70,614
71,833
73,091
65,778
65 746
66,702
67,762
69,305
5,458
5 200
4,944
4,687
4,523
60,318
60, 546
61,759
63,076
64,782
3,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3,786
5.5
6.7
5.5
5.7
5.2
60.2
60.2
59.7
59.6
59.6
129 236
131,180
133,319
135 562
137;841
77 178
78,893
80, 793
82 272
84, 240
2 723
3,123
3,446
3 535
3,506
74 455
75,770
77,347
78 737
80, 734
71 088
72 895
74,372
75 920
77,902
4 361
3,979
3,844
3,817
3,606
66 726
68,915
70,527
72,103
74, 296
3 366
2,875
2,975
2,817
2,832
4.5
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
59 7
60.1
60.6
60.7
61.1
140 182
142,596
145,775
148,263
150,827
85 903
86,929
88,991
91,040
93, 240
3,188
2,817
2,449
2,326
2,229
82 715
84,113
86, 542
88,714
91,011
78, 627
79,120
81,702
84,409
85, 935
3,462
3,387
3,472
3,452
3,492
75,165
75,732
78,230
80,957
82, 443
4,088
4,993
4,840
4,304
5,076
4.9
5.9
5.6
4.9
5.6
61.3
61.0
61.0
61.4
61.8
..._ 153,449
156,048
94,793
96,917
2,180
2,144
92,613
94,773
84,783
87,485
3,380
3,297
81,403
84,188
7,830
7,288
8.5
7.7
61.8
62.1
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
19722..
1973 2
1974
.
1975
1976
.
See footnotes at end of table.
218
TABLE B-27.—Noninstitutional population and the labor force,
1929-76—Continued
(Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Civilian labor force
Year or month
Noninstitutional
population i
Total
labor
force
(includ- Armed
ig
n
Forces 1
Armed
Forces)
Employment
Total
Total
Agricultural
Nonagricultural
Unemployment
Thousands of persons 16 years cf age and over
1975: Jan..
Feb..
Mar.
Apr..
May.
June.
Labor
force
particiUnempation
ployrate
ment
(total
rate
labor
(percent force as
of
percent
civilian of nonlabor
instituforce)
tional
population)
Percent
152, 230 94,146
152, 445 93, 819
152, 646 94, 218
152, 840 94,405
153, 051 94, 970
153, 278 94, 773
2, 193
2,198
2, 198
2,195
2,181
2,178
91,953
91,621
92,020
92,210
92,789
92, 595
84, 673
84, 259
84, 243
84, 246
84,475
84, 496
3,337
3,286
3,301
3,283
3,535
3,361
81,336
80,973
80,942
80,963
80,940
81, 135
7,280
7,362
7,777
7,964
8,314
8,099
7.9
8.0
8.5
8.6
9.0
8.7
61.8
61.5
61.7
61.8
62.1
61.8
July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec.
153, 585
153, 824
154, 052
154, 256
154,476
154 700
95,103
95,220
95, 296
95, 299
95,180
95, 305
2,186
2,185
2,170
2,164
2,155
2,157
92,917
93, 035
93,126
93 135
93, 025
93 148
84, 856
85,114
85,115
85,087
85, 212
85, 443
3,435
3,417
3,506
3,389
3,315
3,255
81,421
81,697
81,609
81,698
81,897
82 188
8,061
7,921
8,011
8,048
7,813
7,705
8.7
8.5
8.6
8.6
8.4
8.3
61.9
61.9
61.9
61.8
61.6
61.6
1976: Jan..
Feb..
Mar.
Apr..
May.
June.
154 915
155, 106
155 325
155 516
155,711
155,925
95, 613
95, 743
96,009
96, 520
96,693
96, 841
2,140
2, 146
2 148
2 144
2 142
2 137
93 473
93 597
93, 862
94 376
94 551
94 704
86, 226
86,471
86, 845
87, 329
87, 640
87, 533
3,305
3,198
3,215
3,398
3,332
3,313
82
83
83
83
84
84
921
273
630
931
308
220
7,247
7,126
7,017
7,047
6,911
7,171
7.8
7.6
7.5
7.5
7.3
7.6
61.7
61.7
61.8
62.1
62.1
62.1
156
156
156
156
157
157
97, 329
97, 498
97,387
97, 449
98,020
98,106
2 140
2,147
2 145
2 147
2 149
2 146
95
95
95
95
95
95
87, 783
87, 834
87, 794
87, 738
88,220
88, 441
3,333
3,372
3,278
3,310
3,248
3,257
84 450
84, 462
84 516
84 428
84 972
85 184
7,406
7,517
7,448
7,564
7,651
7,519
7.8
7.9
7.8
7.9
8.0
7.8
62.3
62.4
62.2
62.2
62.4
62.4
July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec.
142
367
595
788
006
176
189
351
242
302
871
960
1
Not seasonally adjusted.
2
Not strictly comparable with earlier data due to population adjustments as follows: Beginning 1953, introduction of
1950 Census data added about 600,000 to population and about 350,000 to labor force, total employment, and agricultural
employment. Beginning 1960, inclusion of Alaska and Hawaii added about 500,000 to population, about 300,000 to labor
force, and about 240,000 to nonagricultural employment. Beginning 1962, introduction of 1960 Census data reduced population by about 50,000 and labor force and employment by about 200,000. Beginning 1972, introduction of 1970 Census
data added about 800,000 to civilian noninstitutional population and about 333,000 to labor force and employment. A
subsequent adjustment based on 1970 Census in March 1973 added 60,000 to labor force and to employment. Overall
categories of the labor force other than those noted were not appreciably affected.
Note.—Labor force data in Tables B-27 through B-30 are based on household interviews and relate to the calendar
week including the 12th of the month. For definitions of terms, area samples used, historical comparability of the data,
comparability with other series, etc., see "Employment and Earnings."
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
219
TABLE B-28.—Civilian employment and unemployment by sex and age 1947-76
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Employment
Unemployment
Females
Males
Year or
month
20
Total
Total
1947... 57,038 40, 994
1948... 58, 343 41,726
1949... 57,651 40, 926
16-19
years
years
and
over
Males
20
Total
16-19
years
2,218 38,776
2,345 39,382
2,124 38, 803
16,045
16,618
16,723
1,691 14,354
1,683 14,937
1,588 15,137
20
Total
years
and
over
Female j
Total
2,311 1,692
2,276 1,559
3,637 2,572
16-19 years
years and
over
20
Total
16-19 years
years and
over
270 1,422
619
255 1, 305
717
352 2,219 1,065
144
152
223
47E
564
841
195
145
140
123
191
854
689
559
510
997
1950...
1951...
1952...
19531..
1954...
58,918
59,961
60, 250
61,179
60,109
41,580
41,780
41,684
42,431
41,620
2,186
2,156
2,106
2,135
1,985
39,394
39,626
39.578
40, 296
39,634
17,340
18,182
18,570
18,750
18,490
1,517
1,611
1,612
1,584
1,490
15, 824 3,288
16,570 2,055
16,958 1,883
17,164 1,834
17,000 3,532
2,239
1,221
1,185
1,202
2,344
318
191
205
184
310
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
62,170
63,799
64, 071
63, 036
64,630
42,621
43,380
43, 357
42,423
43,466
2,095
2,164
2,117
2,012
2,198
40, 526
41,216
41,239
40,411
41,267
19,550
20,422
20,714
20,613
21,164
1,548
1,654
1,663
1,570
1,640
18,002
18,767
19,052
19,043
19,524
2,852
2,750
2.859
4,602
3,740
1,854
1,711
1,841
3,098
2,420
274 1,580
998
269 1,442 1,039
299 1,541 1,018
176
823
209
832
197
821
262 1,242
256 1,063
19601..
1961...
1962 i._
1963...
1964...
65, 778
65,746
66,702
67. 762
69,305
43, 904
43, 656
44,177
44,657
45,474
2,360
2,314
2,362
2,406
2,587
41,543
41,342
41,815
42,251
42, 886
21,874
22, 090
22,525
23,105
23,831
1,769
1,793
1,833
1,849
1,929
20,105
20, 296
20,693
21,257
21,903
3,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3,786
2,486
2,997
2,423
2,472
2,205
425
479
407
500
286
349
313
383
386
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
71,088
72,895
74,372
75,920
77,902
46, 340
46,919
47,479
48,114
48,818
2,918
3,252
3,186
3,255
3,430
43,422
43,668
44,293
44,859
45,388
24,748
25, 976
26,893
27, 807
29,084
2,118
2,469
2,497
2,525
2,686
22,630
23,510
24, 397
25,281
26,397
3,366
2,875
2,975
2.817
2,832
1,914
1,551
1,508
1,419
1,403
479 1,435 1,452
1970 .
1971...
19721..
19731..
1974...
78,627
79,120
81.702
84,409
85, 936
48,960
49,245
50, 630
51,963
52, 519
3,407
3,470
3,750
4,017
4,074
45, 553 29,667
45.775 29,875
46.880 31.072
47,946 32,446
48, 445 33,417
2,734
2,725j
2.972
3,219
3,329
26.933 4,088 2,235
27! 149 4.993 2,776
28.100 4,840 2.635
29,228 4,304 2,240
30, 088 5,076 2,668
1 9 7 5 . . . 84,783 51,230
1976... 87, 485 52, 391
3,803 47,427
3,904 48, 486
33, 553
35, 095
3,243 30,310
3,365 31,730
1975:
Jan.._
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June..
84, 673
84, 259
84, 243
84, 246
84, 475
84, 496
51, 399
51, 192
51, 067
50, 960
51,138
51, 024
3,850
3,806
3,805
3,753
3,851
3,758
47, 549
47, 386
47, 262
47, 207
47, 287
47,266
33,274
33, 067
33,176
33,286
33, 337
33, 472
3,298 29, 976 7,280 3,919
3,232 29, 835 7,362 4,070
3,201
3,223
3,244
3,245
29,975
30, 063
30, 093
30, 227
July..
Aug.
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.
84, 856
85,114
85,115
85, 087
85,212
85, 443
51,267
51,365
51^296
51,244
51, 324
51, 401
3,799
3,775
3,820
3,785
3,812
3,794
47, 468
47, 590
47,476
47, 459
47,512
47, 607
33,
33,
33,
33,
33,
34,
589
749
819
843
888
042
3,209
3,245
3,272
3,221
3,228
3,275
1976:
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr .
May..
June.
86,226
86, 471
86, 845
87, 329
87, 640
87, 533
51,789
51,942
52, 078
52, 397
52, 490
52, 332
3,848
3,863
3,877
3,942
3,948
3,889
47,941
48, 079
48, 201
48, 455
48, 542
48, 443
34,437
34, 529
34, 767
34, 932
35,150
35,201
July..
Aug_.
Sept..
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
87, 783
87,834
87, 794
87, 738
88, 220
88, 441
52, 507
52,596
52, 546
52,576
52, 643
52,799
3,963
3,958
3,845
3,892
3,870
3,940
48,
48,
48,
48,
48,
48,
35, 276
35, 238
35, 248
35,162
35, 577
35, 642
544
638
701
684
773
859
416 2, 681 1,504
398 2,022 1,320
2,060
2,518
2,016
1,971
487 1,718
1,366
1,717
1,488
1,598
1,581
l,08C
1,368
1.17E
1,216
1.19E
432 1,120 1,324
448 1,060 1,468
427
993 1,397
441
963 1,429
395 1,056
404
921
391 1, 07f
98E
412
412 i,oie
599
691
707
647
749
506
567
595
579
660
1,636
2,086
1.928
1,594
1,918
1,853
2,217
2.205
2,064
2,408
957 3,428 3,445
928 3,041 3,320
1.34J
1,65(
1.6K
1,48!
1,741
795 2,64<
773 2,54(
7,777
7,964
8,314
8,099
4,289
4,445
4,665
4,602
3,361
3,292
3,488
3,519
3,649
3,497
802
755
805
751
855
769
2,55 (
2,53
2,68
2,76
2,79/
2,72!
30, 380
30, 504
30, 547
30, 622
30, 660
30, 767
8,061
7,921
8,011
8,048
7,813
7,705
4,613 1,009 3,604 3,448
988 3,470 3,463
4,458
932 3,683 3,396
4,615
935 3,663 3,450
4,598
892 3,538 3,383
4,430
4,256
922 3,334 3,449
800
825
799
802
765
2,64*
2,63?
2,59'
2,64?
2,611
3,296
3,301
3,353
3,386
3,479
3,400
31,141
31, 228
31,414
31, 546
31,671
31,801
7,247
7,126
7,017
7,047
6,911
7,171
3,949
3,858
3,798
3,812
3,830
3,931
946
920
924
990
937
882
3,003
2,938
2,874
2,822
2,893
3,049
3,298
3,268
3,219
3,235
3,081
3,240
779
775
775
768
753
763
2,51
2,49
2,44
2,46
2,32
2,47
3,423
3,355
3,342
3,351
3,369
3,302
31, 853
31,883
31,906
31,811
32,208
32,340
7,406
7,517
7,448
7,564
7,651
7,519
4,020
3,968
4,060
4,178
4,244
4,152
889
908
910
950
951
933
3,131
3,060
3,150
3,228
3,293
3,219
3,386
3,549
3,388
3,386
3,407
3,367
752
870
754
753
767
769
2,63
2,67<
2,63
2,63
2,64
2,59
1 See footnote 2, Table B-27.
Note.—See Note, Table B-27.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
7,830 4,385
7,288 3,968
1,922 1,049
834
1,029
980
698
1,019
632
2,035 1,188
220
924
943
951
972
955
1,066
2,995
3,127
3,338
3,473
3,710
3,536
821 2,62
TABLE B-29.—Selected unemployment rates, 1948-76
[Percent 1 ; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
By sex and age
Year or month
All
workers
Both
sexes
16-19
years
Males
20
years
and
over
:
By selected groups
By color
emales
20
years White
and
over
Black
and
other
Experienced
wage Houseand
hold
salary heads
work-
Married
Fulltime
workers 3
Bluecollar
workers*
Labor
force*
time
lost *
4.2
8.0
ers
1948
1949
3.8
5.9
9.2
13.4
3.2
5.4
3.6
5.3
3.5
5.6
5.9
8.9
4.3
6.8
3.5
5.4
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
5.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.5
4.4
4.1
12.2
8.2
8.5
7.6
12.6
11.0
11.1
11.6
15.9
14.6
4.7
2.5
2.4
2.5
4.9
3.8
3.4
3 6
6.2
4.7
5.1
4.0
3.2
2.9
5.5
4.9
3.1
2.8
2.7
5.0
3.9
3.6
9.0
5.3
5.4
4.5
9.9
8.7
8.3
7 9
12.6
10.7
6.0
3.7
3.3
3.2
6.2
4.8
4.4
4.6
7.2
5.7
4.6
1.5
1.4
1.7
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.8
5.1
3.6
5.0
2.6
2.5
14.7
16.8
14.7
17.2
16.2
14.8
12.8
12.8
12.7
12.2
4.7
5.7
4.6
4.5
3.9
3.2
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
5.1
6.3
5.4
5.4
5.2
4.5
3.8
4.2
3.8
3.7
4.9
6.0
4.9
5.0
10.2
12.4
10.9
10.8
9.6
8.1
73
7.4
6.7
6.4
5.7
6.8
5.6
5.5
5.0
3.7
4.6
3.6
3.4
2.8
2.4
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
15.2
16.9
16.2
14 5
16 0
19.9
19 0
3.5
4.4
4.0
32
3 8
6.7
5 9
4.8
5.7
4.5
5.4
5.0
8.2
9.9
10.0
8 9
9 9
13.9
13 1
4.8
5.7
5.3
4 5
5 3
8.2
73
2.9
3.6
3.3
2.9
3.3
5.8
2.6
3.2
2.8
4.5
5.5
5.1
2 3
4 3
2.7
5.1
5.1
8.1
51
4 2
7 3
5.9
6.2
6.6
6 9
7 3
7.0
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.7
8.2
8 5
89
8.6
5.2
5.3
5.7
4.4
4.7
5.0
7.5
7.7
8.1
6.1
5.5
5.4
53
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.8
4.1
4 3
6 8
.. .
5.5
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968...
1969
5.5
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
4.9
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr.
May
June
7.9
8.0
8.5
8.7
19.5
19.4
20.0
19 8
20 3
20.8
July
8.7
85
8.6
8.6
8.4
8.3
20.5
20 5
19.6
19.9
19.1
19.8
7.8
7.6
7.5
7.5
7.3
67
5.5
5.7
5.2
4.5
38
3.8
3.6
3.5
5.9
5.6
4
5
8
7
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1976: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec
9
6
5
7
4.4
4.2
4.1
6.1
5.2
5.4
48
55
8.0
7 4
3 8
6.1
4.8
4 6
4.1
34
3.4
3.2
3.1
4 3
5.0
78
70
4.3
3 5
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.7
3.2
2.7
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
8.2
7.3
7.3
7.8
8.3
8.1
13.0
13.3
13.9
14 2
14 3
14.1
7.1
6 8
7.2
7.2
6.9
6.5
8.0
8 0
7.8
8.0
7.9
7.9
8.0
78
7.8
7.9
7.7
7.6
13.5
U 3
14.5
14.2
13.8
13.6
8.4
8 3
8.4
8.4
8.2
8.0
6.0
58
6.0
6.0
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.9
7.5
7.4
7.2
7.3
6.8
13.2
13.6
12.6
13.0
12.3
13.4
5.2
5.0
5.0
7.2
7.1
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.8
7.5
7.3
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.6
19.4
19.1
19.0
19.3
18.5
18.4
7.2
5.1
7.8
7.9
7.8
7.9
8.0
7.8
18.2
19.6
18.8
19.0
19.2
19.0
6.1
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.2
7.6
7.8
7.6
7.6
7.6
,4
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.1
12.9
13.6
12.8
13.4
13.5
13.4
7.4
7.5
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.4
5.3
5.2
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.1
86
9 0
8 4
85
79
8 3
1
5 9
6 2
5.6
4.8
4.9
54
57
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.3
7.2
3.9
3.6
3.4
7.2
5.8
5.1
6.2
10.2
7.6
4.8
5.1
5.3
8.1
6.6
7.8
9.2
7.4
7.3
6.3
5.3
4.2
4.4
4.1
3.9
6.7
8.0
6.7
6.4
5.8
5.0
4.2
4.2
4.0
3.9
6.2
7.4
6.5
53
6.7
11.7
9 4
5.3
6.4
6.0
5.2
8.4
10.6
10.7
12.0
12 4
12 8
12.5
8.7
8.7
9.2
9.3
9.7
9.1
8.4
8 2
8.4
8.4
8.2
7.9
12.4
12 0
12.0
11.7
11.2
10.6
9.1
9 C
9.2
9.2
9.1
8.8
7.3
7.1
7.0
7.0
6.9
9.4
9.3
9.1
8.9
9.0
9.3
8.4
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.1
7.9
9.7
9.8
8.1
8.4
8.4
5.2
3.8
3.7
4.0
7.2
6.7
5.5
4.9
4.2
3.5
3.4
3.1
3.1
84
87
7.2
7.3
7.5
7.5
7.6
7.6
7.5
9.8
9.8
9.7
9.6
6 1
9.1
8 3
8.6
8.6
SA
Unemployment as percent of civilian labor force in group specified, except as noted.
* Married men living with their wives. Data for 1949 and 1951-54 are for April; 1950, for March.
» Data for 1949-61 are for May.
4
Includes craft and kindred workers, operatives, and nonfarm laborers. Data for 1948-57 are based on data for
January, April, July, and October.
4
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially
available labor force hours.
Note.—See footnote 2 and Note, Table B-27.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
224-250 O
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ - 77 - 15
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
221
TABLE B-30.— Unemployment by duration, 1947-76
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted i]
1
Duration of unemployment
Total unemployment
Year or month
Less than
5 weeks
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
27 weeks
and over
Average
(mean)
duration
in weeks
Thousands of persons 16 year 5 of age and over
1947
1948
1949
2,311
2,276
3,637
1,210
1,300
1,756
704
669
1,194
234
193
428
164
116
256
86
10.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
3,288
2,055
1,883
1,834
3,532
1,450
1,177
1,135
1,142
1,605
1,055
574
516
482
1,116
425
166
148
132
495
357
137
84
78
317
12 1
9 7
84
80
11.8
2,852
2,750
2,859
4,602
3,740
1,335
1,412
1.408
753
1,585
815
805
891
1,396
1,114
366
301
321
785
469
336
232
239
667
571
13 0
11 3
10 5
13 9
14.4
3,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3,786
719
1,806
663
751
1,697
1,176
1,376
1,134
1,231
1,117
503
728
534
535
491
454
804
585
553
482
12 8
15 6
14 7
14.0
13 3
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
3,366
2,875
2,975
2,817
2,832
1,628
1,573
1,634
1,594
1,629
983
779
893
810
827
404
287
271
256
242
351
239
177
156
133
11.8
10 4
8.8
8.4
79
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
4,088
4,993
4,840
4,304
5,076
2,137
2,234
2, 223
2,196
2,567
1,289
1,578
1,459
1,296
1,572
427
665
597
475
563
235
517
562
337
373
8.7
11.3
12.0
10.0
9.7
7,830
7,288
2,894
2,790
2,452
2,159
1,290
1,003
1,193
1,336
14.1
15.8
7,280
7,362
7,777
7,964
8,314
8,099
3,196
2,818
3,198
2,936
3,038
2,829
2,578
2,536
2,558
2,621
2,621
2,465
939
1,122
1.234
404
515
,467
627
721
767
952
1,071
1,251
10.8
11.7
11.5
12.9
13.5
15.3
8,061
7,921
8,011
8,048
7,813
7,705
2,850
2,783
2,839
2,960
2,662
2,651
2,200
2,445
2,419
2,448
2,373
2,200
535
,405
341
1,261
1,253
1,349
1,344
1,418
1,581
1,473
1,696
1,632
14.9
15.4
16.1
15.5
16.8
16.9
7,247
7,126
7,017
7,047
6,911
7,171
2,635
2,637
2,630
2,988
2,795
2,730
2,065
1,890
1,915
1,902
1,978
2,215
1,165
968
870
715
850
902
1,616
1,563
1,455
1,388
1,192
1,271
16.9
16.3
16. C
15.8
15.1
16. S
7,406
7,517
7,448
7,564
7,651
7,519
2,931
2,867
2,852
2,952
2,759
2,765
2,093
2,433
2,426
2,367
2,494
2,319
1,058
1,127
1,118
1,094
1,188
1,130
1,189
1,214
1,193
1,266
1,329
1,384
15.6
15.4
15.4
15.3
15.5
15.6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.
.
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
. .
1975.
1976
..
.
1975- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
- -
July
Aue
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
.
---
1976"Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
-
-
.
.
_
.
i Because of independent seasonal adjustment of the various series, detail will not add to totals.
Note.—See footnote 2 and Note, Table B-27.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
222
TABLE B-31—Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1946-76
All programs
Year
or month
Covered
employment 1
Insured
unemployment
(weekly
average^
State programs
Total
benefits
paid
(millions
of dollars^*
Thousands
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970..
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975"..
1976*..
31,856
33,876
34,646
33,098
34, 308
36, 334
37,006
38,072
36,622
40,018
42,751
43, 436
44,411
45,728
46, 334
46,266
47,776
48, 434
49, 637
51, 580
54, 739
56, 342
57,977
59,999
59, 526
59, 375
66, 458
69, 897
72,451
6 71,037
1975:Jan...
Feb___
Mar...
Apr...
MayJune..
July..".
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
1976: Jan._.
Feb.._
Mar...
Apr...
May__
June..
July..
Aug...
Sept*.
Ot
Dec*.
nsured
unemployment
Initial
claims
Exhaustions'
Benefits paid
Total
(millions
of
dollars) *
Average
weekly
check
(dollars) 8
Weekly average; thousands
2,804
1,793
1,446
.2, 474
1,605
1,000
1,069
1,067
2,051
1,399
1,323
1,571
3,269
2,099
2,071
2,994
1,946
7 1,973
1,753
1,450
1,129
1,270
1,187
1,177
2,070
2,608
2,192
1,793
2,558
4,943
3,822
2,878.5
1.785.5
1,328.7
2,269.8
1,467.6
862.9
1,043. 5
1,050.6
2,291.8
1, 560.2
1,540.6
1,913.0
4.290.6
2, 854.3
3, 022.8
4, 358.1
3.145.1
3,025.9
2.749.2
2,360.4
1,890.9
2,221. 5
2,191.0
2, 298.6
4.209.3
6,214.9
5, 491.1
4,517.3
6,933.9
16,802.4
1,295
997
980
1,973
1,513
969
1,044
990
1,870
1,265
1,215
1,446
2,526
1,684
1,908
2,290
1,783
71, 806
1,605
1,328
1,061
1,205
1,111
1,101
1,805
2,150
1,848
1,632
2,262
3,992
2,968
189
187
200
340
236
208
215
218
304
226
227
270
369
111
331
350
302
7 298
268
232
203
226
201
200
296
295
261
246
363
478
382
5,213
5,751
5,886
5,647
5,202
4,892
4,979
4,576
4,238
4,037
4,120
4,461
4,962
4,721
4,366
3,917
3,564
3,457
256.6
312.3
490.4
539.7
395.2
256.7
365. 5
218.4
126.5
115.8
972.5
231.9
,344.9
,231.9
, 334.4
,150.7
945.7
981.7
960.5
951.5
892.8
821.6
3,603
3,832
4,125
4,271
4,480
4,331
4,210
4,130
4,070
3,940
3,576
3,242
2,961
2,859
2,759
2,717
2,862
2,947
3,086
3,203
3,261
3,328
3,165
2,933
543
530
534
508
504
494
456
473
463
445
392
362
371
343
350
361
398
397
403
417
427
437
385
356
3,642
3,446
3,236
3,227
3,453
Insured
unemployment as
percent
of covered
employment
50
58
66
84
92
104
106
98
84
76
73
73
76
74
71
69
66
64
61
59
56
53
4.3
3.1
3.0
6.2
4.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
5.2
3.5
3.2
3.6
6.4
4.4
4.8
5.6
4.4
4.3
3.8
3.0
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.1
3.4
4.1
3.5
2.7
3.5
6.0
4.5
*
5.5
5.8
6.3
6.4
6.7
6.5
6.3
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.4
4.9
4.5
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.1
4.8
4.5
1,094.9
775.1
789.9
1,736.0
1,373.1
840.4
998.2
962.2
2,026.9
1, 350.3
1,380.7
1,733.9
3,512.7
2,279.0
2,726.7
3,422.7
2,675.4
2,774.7
2,522.1
2,166.0
1,771.3
2,092.3
2,031.6
2,127.9
18.50
17.88
19.03
20.43
20.76
21.09
22.79
23.58
24.93
25.04
27.02
28.17
30.58
30.41
32.87
33.80
34.56
35.27
35.92
37.19
39.75
41.25
43.43
46.17
3, 848.5
4,957.0
4,471.0
4,007.6
5,974.9
11 754.7
50.34
53.23
56.76
59.00
64.25
70.23
1,128.2
1,164.2
1,290.6
1,301.2
1,145.1
984.0
1,037.1
891.4
779.4
759.5
677.8
893.2
1,018.6
945.1
1,018.2
869.6
698.7
719.3
711.5
698.7
640.8
610.5
67.83
68.73
69.07
69.08
69.33
69.58
71.56
71.06
71.32
72.37
73.11
73.64
74.71
75.66
75.69
75.61
74.79
74.16
73.66
73.83
74.19
75.50
* Monthly data are seasonally adjusted.
Includes persons under the State, UCFE (Federal employee, effective January 1955), and RRB (Railroad Retirement
Board) programs. Beginning October 1958, also includes the UCX program (unemployment compensation for ex-servicemen).
a Includes State, UCFE, RR, UCX, UCV (unemployment compensation for veterans, October 1952-January 1960), and
SRA (Servicemen's Readjustment Act, September 1944-September 1951) programs. Also includes Federal and State
extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment
assistance) programs.
1
Covered workers who have completed at least 1 week of unemployment.
4
Annual data are net amounts and monthly data are gross amounts.
* Individuals receiving final payments in benefit year.
0
For total unemployment only.
7
Programs include Puerto Rican sugarcane workers for initial claims and insured unemployment beginning July 1963.
> Latest data available for all programs combined. Workers covered by State programs account for about 92 percent of
the total.
Source: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration.
1
223
TABLE B-32.—Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1929-76
[Thousands of persons; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Manufacturing
Year or
month
Total
wage
and
salary
workers
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Mining
Contract
construction
Transportation
and
public
utilities
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
Government
Finance,
insurance,
and
real
estate
Services
Federal
State
and
local
1929..
31,339
10,702
1,087
1,497
3,916
6,123
1,509
3,440
533
2,532
1933..
23,711
7,397
744
809
2,672
4,755
1,295
2,873
565
2,601
1939..
30,618
10,278
4,715
5,564
854
1,150
2,936
6,426
1,462
3,517
905
3,090
1940..
1941..
1942..
4943..
;1944_.
32,376
36,554
40,125
42,452
41,883
10, 985
13,192
15, 280
17,602
17,328
5,363
6,968
8,823
11,084
10, 856
5,622
6,225
6,458
6,518
6,472
925
957
992
925
892
1,294
1,790
2,170
1,567
1,094
3,038
3,274
3,460
3,647
3,829
6,750
7,210
7,118
6,982
7,058
1,502
1,549
1,538
1,502
1,476
3,681
3,921
4,084
4,148
4,163
996
l,a40
2,213
2,905
2,928
3,206
3,320
3,270
3,174
3,116
1945..
19461947..
'1948..
1949..
40, 394
41,674
43,881
44,891
43,778
15, 524
14,703
15, 545
15, 582
14, 441
9,074
7,742
8,385
8,326
7,489
6,450
6,962
7,159
7,256
6,953
836
862
955
994
930
1,132
1,661
1,982
2,169
2,165
3,906
4,061
4,166
4,189
4,001
7,314
8,376
8,955
9,272
9,264
1,497
1,697
1,754
1,829
1,857
4,241
4,719
5,050
5,206
5,264
2,808
2,254
1,892
1,863
1,908
3,137
3,341
3,582
3,787
3,948
1950..
1951..
1952..
fl953_.
1954..
45, 222
47,849
48,825
50, 232
49,022
15,241
16,393
16,632
17,549
16,314
8,094
9,089
9,349
10,110
9,129
7,147
7,304
7,284
7,438
7,185
901
929
898
866
791
2,333
2,603
2,634
2,623
2,612
4,034
4,226
4,248
4,290
4,084
9,386
9,742
10,004
10,247
10,235
1,919
1,991
2,069
2,146
2,234
5,382
5,576
5,730
5,867
6,002
1,928
2,302
2,420
2,305
2,188
4,098
4,087
4,188
4,340
4,563
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
50,675
52,408
52,894
51,363
53,313
16,882
17,243
17,174
15,945
16,675
9,541
9,834
9,856
8,830
9,373
7,340
7,409
7,319
7,116
7,303
792
822
828
751
732
2,802
2,999
2,923
2,778
2,960
4,141
4,244
4,241
3,976
4,011
10, 535 2,335
10,858 2,429
10, 886 2,477
10, 750 2,519
11,127 2,594
6,274
6,536
6,749
6,806
7,130
2,187
2,209
2,217
2,191
2,233
4,727
5,069
5,399
5,648
5,850
{I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
54,234
54,042
55,596
56,702
58,331
16,796
16,326
16,853
16,995
17,274
9,459
9,070
9,480
9,616
9,816
7,336
7,256
7,373
7,380
7,458
712
672
650
635
634
2,885
2,816
2,902
2,963
3,050
4,004
3,903
3,906
3,903
3,951
11,391
11,337
11, 566
11,778
12,160
2,669
2,731
2,800
2,877
2,957
7,423
7,664
8,028
8,325
8,709
2,270
2,279
2,340
2,358
2,348
6,083
6,315
6,550
6,868
7,248
60,815 18, 062
63, 955 19,214
65, 857 19,447
67, 951 19,781
70,442 20,167
10, 406
11,284
11,439
11,626
11,895
7,656
7,930
8,008
8,155
8,272
632
627
613
606
619
3,186
3,275
3,208
3,306
3,525
4,036
4,151
4,261
4,311
4,435
12,716
13, 245
13,606
14, 099
14, 704
3,023 9,087
3,100 9,551
3,225 10,099
3,381 10,622
3,562 11,228
2,378
2,564
2,719
2,737
2,758
7,696
8,227
8,679
9,109
9,444
2,731
2,696
2,684
2,663
2,724
9,830
10,192
10, 656
11,075
11,453
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973 .
fl974_.
70, 920
71,222
73,714
76, 896
78, 413
19, 349 11,195
18, 572 10, 597
19, 090 11,006
20, 068 11,839
20, 046 11,895
8,154
7,975
8,084
8,229
8,151
623
609
625
644
694
3,536
3,639
3,831
4,015
3,957
4,504
4,457
4,517
4,644
4,696
15,040
15,352
15,975
16,674
17,017
3,687
3,802
3,943
4,091
4,208
1975..
76, 985
79,115
18, 347
18,954
10, 679
11,028
7,668
7,926
745
783
3,457
3,370
4,498
4,507
16, 947
17,490
4,223 13,995 2,748 112,025
4,316 14, 607 2,736 12,352
1976P.
See footnotes at end of table.
224
11,621
11,903
12, 392
13,021
13,617
TABLE B-32.—Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments,
1929-76—Continued
(All employees; thousands of persons; monthly data seasonally adjusted!
Manufacturing
Total
wage
and
salary
workers
Transportation
and
public
utilities
Whrvln
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Mining
Total
033
205
275
423
559
628
20, 305
20,220
20,196
20, 235
20, 220
20, 234
12,037
11, 967
11,957
12,009
11,989
12,020
8,268
8,253
8,239
8,226
8,231
8,214
673
679
680
688
692
694
4,050
4,121
4,098
4,062
4,037
3,985
4,705
4,716
4,711
4,707
4,708
4,704
16, 864
16,878
16,911
16,968
17,029
17,051
4,172
4,186
4,196
4,202
4,209
4,210
July...
Aug...
Sep...
Oct...
Nov.Dec...
78, 660
78, 709
78, 774
78,718
78, 339
77, 703
20,209
20,128
20,074
19, 938
19, 635
19,183
12,026
11,954
11,927
11, 856
11,658
11,353
8,183
8,174
8,147
8,082
7,977
7,830
700
703
707
714
718
684
3,921
3,934
3,891
3,869
3,818
3,759
4,699
4,703
4,683
4,686
4,674
4,659
17,111
17,125
17,139
17,142
17, 049
16, 939
1975: Jan._.
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May—
Jun.__
77, 300
76, 804
76,518
76, 491
76, 577
76, 444
18,784
18, 375
18, 237
18,183
18,192
18,131
11,092
10,816
10, 737
10, 650
10, 607
10,539
7,692
7,559
7,500
7,533
7,585
7,592
725
728
732
734
741
743
3,732
3,596
3,483
3,455
3,446
3,405
4,599
4,556
4,511
4,508
4,496
4,474
July..
Aug.Sep...
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
76, 706
76,988
77, 239
77, 470
77, 542
77,764
18,115
18,272
18,395
18,452
18,472
18, 555
10, 488
10, 578
10,645
10,644
10,652
10, 709
7,627
7,694
7,750
7,808
7,820
7,846
745
750
753
759
761
766
3,404
3,412
3,420
3,399
3,406
3,392
1976: Jan._.
Feb...
Mar._.
Apr...
May...
Jun.__
78,142
78, 358
78,692
79,011
79, 006
79, 043
18,704
18,774
18,897
19, 008
19, 000
18,984
10,810
10, 857
10,956
11,016
11,062
11,059
7,894
7,917
7,941
7,992
7,938
7,925
767
767
773
775
776
781
79,183
79,278
79, 572
79,467
79,700
NOVP.
Decp.. 79,957
18, 945
18, 979
19,100
18, 941
19, 057
19,093
11,034
11,083
11,146
11,018
11,134
11,181
7,911
7,896
7,954
7,923
7,923
7,912
791
752
798
800
808
806
Year or
month
1974: Jan._.
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
Jun._.
July...
Aug...
Sep...
Oct._.
78,
78,
78,
78,
78,
78,
Government
Fi-
oontract
construction
wnoiesale
and
retail
trade
nance,
insurance,
and
real
estate
Services
Federal
State
and
local
13,313
13,400
13,453
13, 488
13,573
13, 621
2,683
2,699
2,702
2,711
2,717
2,723
11,268
11,306
11,328
11,362
11,374
11,406
4,210
4,217
4,220
4,224
4,226
4,225
13, 656
13,696
13,753
13,797
13, 822
13, 833
2,729
2,734
2,742
2,740
2,740
2,738
11,425
11,469
11,565
11,608
11,657
11,683
16,903
16, 878
16, 864
16, 856
16,873
16, 882
4,219
4,210
4,207
4,205
4,208
4,206
13,857
13,865
13, 864
13, 878
13,903
13, 885
2,736
2,735
2,735
2,735
2,736
2,741
11,745
11,861
11,885
11,937
11,982
11,977
4,473
4,466
4,472
4,472
4,482
4,477
16, 949
16,968
17,016
17, 043
17, 027
17, 084
4,211
4,218
4,235
4,242
4,248
4,260
13, 990
14,050
14,099
14,157
14,188
14,229
2,748
2,753
2,757
2,761
2,756
2,753
12,071
12,099
12,092
12,185
12, 202
12,248
3,409
3,379
3,380
3,413
3,393
3,375
4,489
4,504
4,507
4,510
4,503
4,482
17,207
17, 308
14, 399
17, 465
17, 461
17,460
4,266
4,266
4,276
4,289
4,282
4,301
14,307
14,360
14,422
14,498
14, 529
14, 571
2,749
2,742
2,735
2,733
2,730
2,728
12,244
12,258
12,303
12,320
12, 332
12,361
3,382
3,349
3,330
3,340
3,353
3,349
4,508
4,501
4,528
4,506
4,510
4,537
17,531
17, 554
17,625
17,610
17, 585
17,685
4,312
4,312
4,338
4,359
4,381
4,403
14,623
14,709
14,758
14,781
14,844
14,897
2,723
2,732
2,728
2,730
2,734
2,736
12,368
12, 390
12, 367
12,400
12,428
12,451
Note.—Data in Tables B-32 through B-34 are based on reports from employing establishments and relate to full- and
part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during, or received pay for, any part of
the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Not comparable with labor force data (Tables B-27 through B - 3 0 ) , which include proprietors, self-employed persons,
domestic servants, and unpaid family workers; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because
of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc.; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the
estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
For description and details of the various establishment data, see "Employment and Earnings."
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
225
TABLE B-33.—Average weekly hours and hourly earnings in selected private nonagricultural
industries, 1947-76
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Average gross hourly earnings,
current dollars
Average weekly hours
Year
or
month
ConTotal
private Manu- tract
nonag- factur- construcriculing
tion
tural i
Total
private ManuRetail non- facturtrade 2 agriing
cultural 1
Contract
construction
Adjusted hourly earnings,
total private nonagricultural
Index,
1967 = 100
Retail
trade 2
3
Percent
change
from
a year
earlier»
Current
dollars
1967
dollars *
Current
dollars
1967
dollars
40.3
40.0
39.4
40.4
40.0
39.1
38.2
38.1
37.7
40.3 $1,131 $1,217 $1.541 $0.838
40.2 1.225 1.328 1.713
.901
40.4 1.275 1.378 1.792
.951
42.6
46.0
48.2
63.7
63.8
67.5
80
48
0 2
58
39.8
39.9
39.9
39.6
39.1
40.5
40.6
40.7
40.5
39.6
37.4
38.1
38.9
37.9
37.2
40.4
40.4
39.8
39.1
39.2
1.335
1.45
1.52
1.61
1.65
1.440
1.56
1.65
1.74
1.78
1.863
2.02
2.13
2.28
2.39
.983
1.06
1.09
1.16
1.20
50.0
53.7
56.4
59.6
61.7
69.3
69.0
70.9
74.4
76.6
37
7.4
50
57
3.5
2.7
-.4
28
4 9
3.0
39.6
39.3
38.8
38.5
39.0
40.7
40.4
39.8
39.2
40.3
37.1
37.5
37.0
36.8
37.0
39.0
38.6
38.1
38.1
38.2
1.71
1.80
1.89
1.95
2.02
1.86
1.95
2.05
2.11
2.19
2.45
2.57
2.71
2.82
2.93
1.25
1.30
1.37
1.42
1.47
63.7
67.0
70.3
73.2
75.8
79.4
82.3
83.4
84.5
86.8
32
5.2
4 9
4.1
3.6
3.7
3.7
1 3
1.3
2.7
38.6
38.6
38.7
38.8
38.7
39.7
39.8
40.4
40.5
40.7
36.7
36.9
37.0
37.3
37.2
38.0
37.6
37.4
37.3
37.0
2.09
2.14
2.22
2.28
2.36
2.26
2.32
2.39
2.46
2.53
3.08
3.20
3.31
3.41
3.55
1.52
1.56
1.63
1.68
1.75
78.4
80.8
83.5
85.9
88.3
88.4
90.2
92.2
93.7
95.1
3.4
31
3.3
2.9
2.8
1.8
2.0
2.2
1.6
1.5
38.8
38.6
38.0
37.8
37.7
41.2
41.3
40.6
40.7
40.6
37.4
37.6
37.7
37.3
37.9
36.6
35.9
35.3
34.7
34.2
2.45
2.56
2.68
2.85
3.04
2.61
2.72
2.83
3.01
3.19
3.70
3.89
4.11
4.41
4.79
1.82
1.91
2.01
2.16
2.30
91.6
95.4
100.0
106.3
113.3
97.0
98.1
100.0
102.0
103.2
3.7
4.1
4.8
6.3
6.6
2.0
1.1
1.9
2.0
1.2
37.1
37.0
37.1
37.1
36 6
39.8
39.9
40.6
40.7
40.0
37.3
37.2
36.9
37.0
36.9
33.8
33.7
33.7
33.3
32.7
3.22
3.44
3.67
3.92
4.22
3.36
3.57
3.81
4.08
4.41
5.24
5.69
6.03
6.37
6.75
2.44
2.57
2.70
2.87
3.09
120.8
129.4
137.8
146.6
158.6
103.9
106.7
110.0
110.1
107.4
6.6
7.1
6.5
6.4
8.2
.7
2.7
3.1
.1
-2.5
1975
1976 P
36.1
36.2
39.4
40.1
36.6
37.1
32.4
32.2
4.54
4.86
4.81
5.19
7.25
7.67
3.34
3.55
172.7
184.7
107.1
8.9
6.9
-.3
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
36.2
36.0
35.9
35.9
36.0
36.0
39.1
38.9
38.9
39.0
39.1
39.3
37.1
36.6
34.9
36.7
36.8
36.0
32.3
32.3
32.5
32.3
32.4
32.4
4.41
4.43
4.45
4.47
4.49
4.52
4.65
4.68
4.72
4.73
4.75
4.78
7.04
6.98
7.18
7.18
7.16
7.26
3.23
3.26
3.27
3.28
3.30
3.32
166.0
167.4
168.9
169.3
170.3
171.8
106.1
106.4
107.0
106.7
106.8
106.9
9.5
9.8
10.0
9.6
9.0
8.6
-1.9
-1.1
-.3
-.6
-.5
-.8
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
36.0
36.1
36.1
36.2
36.3
36.4
39.4
39.7
39.8
39.8
39.9
40.3
36.4
36.7
36.7
36.7
36.9
37.2
32.3
32.4
32.3
32.4
32.4
32.4
4.55
4.58
4.60
4.63
4.67
4.68
4.82
4.85
4.88
4.90
4.93
4.96
7.32
7.30
7.32
7.34
7.40
7.45
3.34
3.37
3.38
3.40
3.42
3.43
172.7
174.2
174.8
176.2
177.6
178.0
106.5
107.0
106.9
107.1
107.3
107.0
8.7
8.8
8.1
8.2
8.4
7.9
-.9
.1
.1
.5
1.0
.8
1976:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
36.4
36.4
36.2
36.1
36.3
36.2
40.4
40.3
40.3
39.4
40.3
40.2
37.6
37.7
36.0
37.4
37.1
37.3
32.5
32.3
32.2
32.5
32.2
32.0
4.72
4.74
4.77
4.79
4.83
4.85
5.00
5.04
5.08
5.08
5.13
5.16
7.48
7.47
7.57
7.57
7.66
7.68
3.46
3.47
3.48
3.49
3.51
3.52
179.4
180.3
181.1
182.1
183.3
184.0
107.3
107.8
108.0
108.2
108.3
108.1
8.0
7.7
7.2
7.6
7.7
7.1
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.4
1.4
1.1
36.2
36.1
36.0
36.1
36.2
36.3
40.1
40.0
39.7
39.9
40.1
40.1
36.9
36.8
35.9
37.3
37.4
37.3
32.1
32.0
32.1
32.0
32.0
32.2
4.88
4.90
4.92
4.95
4.99
5.01
5.21
5.25
5.29
5.29
5.34
5.37
7.77
7.74
7.71
7.76
7.81
7.85
3.55
3.57
3.60
3.63
3.66
3.67
185.2
186.4
187.2
188.2
189.2
190.0
108.4
108.5
108.5
108.7
109.0
7.3
7.0
7.1
6.8
6.5
67
1.8
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
....
. .
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
. .
1965 . .
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971 ..
1972
1973
1974
.
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
..
Nov *.-Dec*
1 Also includes other private industry groups shown in Table B-32.
Includes eating and drinking places.
3 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and for interindustry employment shifts.
4 Current dollar earnings index divided by the consumer price index.
* Monthly data are computed from indexes to two decimal places.
Note.—See Note, Table B-32.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3
226
TABLE B-34.—Average weekly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries, 1947-76
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Percent change from a
year earlier, total private
nonagricultural4
Average gross weekly earnings
Year or month
Total private
nonagricultural1
Current
dollars
Manufacturing
1967
dollars 2
Contract
construction
Retail
trade 3
Current
dollars
1967 dollars
Current dollars
$45.58
49.00
50.24
$68.13
67.96
70.36
$49.17
53.12
53.88
$58.87
65.27
67.56
$33.77
36.22
38.42
7.5
2.5
-0.2
3.5
53.13
57.86
60.65
63.76
64.52
73.69
74.37
76.29
79.60
80.15
58.32
63.34
67.16
70.47
70.49
69.68
76.96
82.86
86.41
88.91
39.71
42.82
43.38
45.36
47.04
5.8
8.9
4.8
51
1.2
47
.9
2.6
43
7
1955
1956
1957
1958 .
1959
67.72
70.74
73.33
75.08
78.78
84.44
86.90
86.99
86.70
90.24
75.70
78.78
81.59
82.71
88.26
90.90
96.38
100.27
103. 78
108.41
48.75
50.18
52.20
54.10
56.15
5.0
4.5
3.7
2.4
4.9
5.4
2 9
.1
-.3
4.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
80 67
82 60
85.91
88.46
91 33
90.95
92.19
94.82
96.47
98.31
89.72
92.34
96.56
99.63
102.97
113.04
118. 08
122.47
127.19
132.06
57.76
58.66
60.96
62.66
64.75
2.4
2.4
4.0
3.0
3.2
.8
1.4
2.9
1.7
1.9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
95.06
98.82
101.84
107.73
114.61
100.59
101.67
101.84
103.39
104.38
107.53
112.34
114.90
122.51
129.51
138. 38
146.26
154.95
164.49
181.54
66.61
68.57
70.95
74.95
78.66
4.1
4.0
3.1
5.8
6.4
2.3
1.1
.2
1.5
1.0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
119.46
127.28
136.16
145.43
154.45
102.72
104.93
108.67
109.26
104.57
133.73
142.44
154.69
166.06
176.40
195.45
211.67
222.51
235.69
249.08
82.47
86.61
90.99
95.57
101.04
4.2
6.5
7.0
6.8
6.2
-1.6
2.2
3.6
.5
-4.3
1975
1976 v
163.89
175.93
101.67
189. 51
208.12
265.35
284. 56
108.22
114.31
6.1
7.3
-2.8
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
159.64
159.48
159 76
160.47
161.64
162.72
102.01
101.39
101.17
101.12
101.34
101.32
181.82
182.05
183.61
184.47
185.73
187.85
261.18
255.47
250. 58
263.51
263.49
261.36
104.33
105.30
106.28
105.94
106.92
107.57
6.8
6.2
5.9
7.0
5.4
-4.4
-4.4
-4.0
-2.9
-4.0
-3.6
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov...
Dec .
163.80
165. 34
166.06
167.61
169.52
170.35
100.99
101.56
101.57
101.89
102.43
102.37
189.91
192.55
194.22
195.02
196. 71
199.89
266.45
267.91
268. 64
269.38
273.06
277.14
107.88
109.19
109.17
110.16
110.81
111.13
5.1
5.9
5.5
5.8
7.6
7.1
-4.2
-2.5
-2.2
-1.7
.3
.1
1976: Jan.._
Feb
Mar..
Apr
May
June
171.81
172.54
172.67
172.92
175.33
175 57
102.82
103.13
103.03
102.74
103.56
103 22
202.00
203.11
204.72
200.15
206.74
207.43
281.25
281.62
272. 52
283.12
284.19
286.46
112.45
112.08
112.06
113.43
113.02
112.64
8.2
8.1
7.9
7.5
8.5
7.6
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.4
2.1
1.6
176.66
176 89
177.12
178.70
180. 64
181. 86
103.37
102 96
102.68
103. 24
104.06
208.92
210.00
210.01
211.07
214.13
215. 34
286.71
284.83
276.79
289.45
292.09
292.81
113.96
114.24
115.56
116.16
117.12
118.17
7.9
7.0
6.6
6.9
6.5
6.8
2.3
1.3
1.0
1.5
1.5
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
.
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov p
Dec v
.
_ _.
. .
1
Also includes other private industry groups shown in Table B-32.
2 Earnings in current dollars divided by the consumer price index.
Includes eating and drinking places.
* Based on unadjusted data.
Note.—See Note, Table B-32.
3
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
227
TABLE B-35.—Productivity and related data, private business economy, 1947-76
[1967 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Output i
Hours of 2
all
persons
Output per
hour of all
persons
Compensation
per hour*
Unit labor
costs
Implicit price
deflator*
Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private
nonnonnonnonnonnonprivate farm )rivate farm private farm private farm private farm private farm
busibusibusibusibusibusibusibusibusibusibusibusiness
ness
ness
ness
ness
ness
ness
ness
ness
ness
ness
ness
Year or quarter
1947
1948
1949
48.6
50.8
| 49.9
47.5
49.5
48.7
92.9
93.5
90.3
80.9
82.1
78.9
52.3
54.4
55.3
58.7
60.3
61.7
35.1
38.1
38.8
37.5
40.7
42.0
67.1
70.1
70.2
63.9
67.5
68.1
65.1
70.6
69.8
62.3
67.5
68.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
54.5
57.7
59.1
61.9
60.8
53.2
56.7
58.4
60.8
59.6
91.2
93.9
93.9
94.7
91.5
81.3
85.0
85.8
87.9
84.7
59.7
61.5
63.0
65.3
66.5
65.5
66.7
68.1
69.2
70.3
41.6
45.6
48.6
51.8
53.5
44.5
48.4
51.0
54.0
55.8
69.6
74.3
77.1
79.3
80.5
67.9
72.5
75.0
78.0
79.3
70.8
76.0
77 4
77.9
78.6
69.1
73.7
75 2
76 8
77.8
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
65.6
67.5
68.4
66.9
71.8
64.5
66.5
67.5
65.8
71.0
94.8
96.2
94.6
90.2
93.4
88.1
90.3
89.7
85.8
89.3
69.2
70.2
72.3
74.2
76.8
73.2
73.6
75.3
76.8
79.6
54.9
58.6
62.5
65.5
68.5
57.8
61.4
65.0
67.7
70.6
79.3
83.5
86.5
88.2
89.1
79.0
83.3
86.4
88.1
88.8
79 8
82.2
84.8
86 4
88.1
79
81
84
85
88
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
73.1
74.1
78.8
82.2
86.8
72.2
73.3
78.1
81.6
86.4
93.6
92.0
93.4
93.8
95.1
89.9
88.7
90.5
91.4
93.3
78.1
80.6
84.4
87.7
91.3
80.3
82.6
86.2
89.3
92.6
71.4
74.2
77.7
80.7
85.1
73.7
76.2
79.4
82.3
86.2
91.4
92.1
92.1
92.0
93.2
91.7
92.3
92.0
92.2
93.1
89.3
89 8
90.6
91.4
92.7
89.2
89 8
90 5
91.5
92.9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
92.9
98.0
100.0
105.1
108.3
92.6
98.1
100.0
105.4
108.6
98.1
100.3
100.0
101.7
104.5
96.8
100.0
100.0
102.1
105.3
94.7
97.8
100.0
103.3
103.7
95.7
98.1
100.0
103.2
103.1
88.4
94.7
100.0
107.6
115.1
89.1
94.5
100.0
107.3
114.2
93.4
96.8
100.0
104.1
111.0
93.2
96.4
100.0
103.9
110.9
94.2
97.2
100 0
103.9
108.8
94 1
96.8
100 0
104 0
108.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
107.4
110.3
117.6
124.5
120.8
107.4
110.3
117.9
125.0
121.1
102.8
102.3
106.0
110.1
110.6
104.0
103.7
107.6
112.2
112.7
104.5
107.8
110.9
113.1
109.2
103.2
106.3
109.5
111.4
107.5
123.3
131.5
138.9
150.3
164.3
121.9
129.9
137.4
148.1
162.0
118.1
121.9
125.2
132.9
150.4
118.1
122.2
125.5
133.0
150.8
113 9
118.9
123.2
130 3
143.8
114 0
119.2
122.9
128 0
142.0
1975
-- 118.1
118.0
105.9
107.9
111.5
109.4
180.2
177.7
161.6
162.4
157.5
156.4
1974:1
II
III
IV
-. 123.0
121.8
120.6
117.7
123.7
122.1
121.0
117.9
111.3
111.3
110.9
109.3
113.2
113.5
113.3
111.5
110.5
109.4
108.7
107.6
109.3
107.6
106.7
105.7
157.1
161.8
166.7
170.7
155.3
159.6
164.0
168.3
142.1
147.9
153.3
158.6
142.1
148.3
153.6
159.3
137.4
141.5
146.0
150.4
134.7
140.1
144.6
149.2
1975:1 .
II
III
IV
114.2
116.7
120.1
121.2
114.4
116.6
119.9
121.3
105.7
104.8
105.7
107.0
107.9
106.7
107.4
109.2
108.1
111.4
113.6
113.2
106.0
109.2
111.6
111.0
176.0
179.0
181.3
185.0
173.1
176.4
179.3
182.2
162.9
160.7
159.5
163.4
163.3
161.6
160.6
164.1
154.5
155 9
158.4
160.9
154.0
155.0
157.0
159.3
1976:1
II
III
124.2
125.8
126.9
124.3
126.0
127.1
107.7
108.2
108.2
110.4
110.4
110.6
115.3
116.3
117.2
112.6
114.1
114.9
189.8
193.3
196.7
186.4
190.4
193.6
164.7
166.1
167.8
165.5
166.9
168.5
161.7
163.8
165.4
161.0
162.5
164.8
-
4
9
6
9
0
1
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also
includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed.
* Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
228
TABLE B-36.—Changes in productivity and related data, private business economy, 1948-76
[Percent change from preceding period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Output i
Year or quarter
1948
1949
8.7
3.2
4.5
.1
5.8
.8
8.0
2.9
2.5
3.7
1.8
6.1
1.8
2.0
1.6
1.7
7.1
1.0
2.4
-3.6
9.8
6.4
6.6
3.4
5.8
8.7
5.6
5.7
3.3
-.8
6.7
3.8
2.9
1.5
-.3
6.7
3.5
4.0
1.6
4.0
2.4
-.7
4.1
1.4
3.0
4.1
.6
2.2
2.0
3.6
2.6
6.7
6.7
4.7
4.6
3.7
6.2
5.9
-1.5
5.2
-.4
4.0
4.4
3.7
1.9
1.0
4.2
4.0
4.7
1.6
-4.0
9.4
6.5
3.0
4.1
1.1
2.9
3.1
4.6
.0
-1.9
-3.5
8.0
8.2
3.1
1.5
2.8
1.3
-2.1
-.
-.
7.3
3.7
1.4
-2.4
-1.6
-4.7
7.9
3.6
-4.3
4.1
2.7
3.6
Implicit price
deflator*
Private Total Private
Total
nonnonfarm private farm private
busibusibusibusness
ness
ness
ness
8.6
1.8
0.6
-3.4
.9
Unit labor
costs
2.8
2.3
4.4
-1.7
-1.7
..
Compensation
per hour'
3.9
1.7
4.6
9.2
5.9
2.5
4.6
..
Output per hour
of all persons
Private Total Private Total
Total Private Total
nonnonprivate non- private farm private farm private
farm
busibusibusibusibusibusibusiness
ness
ness
ness
ness
ness
ness
-1.8
.-
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Hours of
all persons2
8.4
-1.1
1.5
1.6
1.9
.6
9
6 5
2 1
2.1
1 3
3.7
2.0
.7
1.5
3.0
3.2
1.9
2.0
3.3
2.6
.7
.1
-.1
1.3
3.3
.6
-.3
.1
1.0
1.4
.6
.9
.9
1.4
1 0
1 5
3.3
4.0
4.5
5.5
1.8
1.5
6.2
4.4
5.6
1.6
1.5
6.5
.2
.6
1.6
1.0
-1.7
-1.3
1.5
3.3
4.6
2.8
4.4
4.5
.4
5.9
1.4
2.1
1.0
2.1
4.0
4.1
3.5
3.7
5.4
4.3
3.5
4.1
3.7
4.8
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
7.0
5.5
2.0
5.1
3.0
7.1
6.0
1.9
5.4
3.0
3.1
2.3
-.3
1.7
2.7
3.7
3.3
-.0
2.1
3.2
3.7
3.2
2.3
3.3
.3
3.3
2.5
1.9
3.2
-.2
3.9
7.0
5.6
7.6
7.0
3.4
6.1
5.8
7.3
6.5
.2
3.7
3.3
4.1
6.6
.1
3.4
3.8
3.9
6.6
1.6
3.2
2.9
3.9
4.7
g
2.8
6.6
-1.1
-1.6
-.4
-1.2
.7
-.3
3.7
3.2
2.9
1.9
.2
2.9
7.2
6.6
5.7
8.2
6.7
6.6
5.8
7.8
6.4
3.2
2.7
6.2
6.5
3.5
2.7
4.7
4.4
3.6
5.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
5.9
-3.0
2.7
6.9
6.0
-3.1
3.9
.4
1975
-2.3
-2.6
1974: 1
II .
III
IV
-6.4
-3.8
-5.2
-4.8
-3.8
-9.9
-.
1975: 1
II
III.
IV
1976: 1
II
III
.
-3.9
-9.4
-11.2
8.9
..
12.3
-11.3
7.9
12.1
3.6
1.7
2 1
3. 2
1 5
2. 4
1 4
6
.8
1.3
2 9
4 9
4.5
3.1
4.3
.4
-3.4
-3.5
9.3
9.4
13.2
6.0
13.4
10.3
4 1
11.0
-4.2
-4.3
2.1
1.8
9.7
9.7
7.5
7.7
9.5
10.1
.3
-.9
1.2
-.6
-6.2
-6.6
-3.8
-2.6
-4.0
-4.3
-5.9
-3.2
-3.9
8.0
12.7
12.6
9.9
9 3
11.5
11.5
10.9
15.6
17.1
15.5
14.5
14 3
18.5
15.2
15.5
9.1
12 5
13.2
12.9
13.4
-12.4
1.6
1.3
12.6
13.1
6.9
5.2
8.3
11.8
7.9
6.8
6.6
11.3
-5.1
-3.0
10.0
10.4
-4.2
11.3
3.5
13 5
2.6
5 3
10.9
9.5
8.9
6.9
3.2
3.6
-.0
-1.4
-5.7
-12.7
-3.3
3.6
4.5
3.5
5.2
10.2
10.5
5.4
3.4
2.6
1.6
.2
5.5
3.4
3.0
8.3
.7
7 3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
3.9
Private
nonfarm
business
-4.1
2.5
6.9
12.7
8.5
-1.5
4.4
7.4
3.8
.1
.5
9.3
-2.2
3.1
5.8
5.4
2.9
7.5
7.3
4.1
6.6
9 4
17 0
13.5
-2.2
9.0
6.6
6.2
3.5
3.3
3.9
2 1
5.2
3.9
4 3
3.6
5.8
1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers.
Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also
includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed.
< Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
Note.—Percent changes are based on original data and therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on
indexes in Table B-35.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
229
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
TABLE B~37.—Industrial production indexes, major industry divisions, 1929-76
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Total
industrial
production
Year or month
Manufacturin g
Mining
Total
Durable
Utilities
Nondurable
100.00
87.95
51.98
35.97
1929
21.6
22.8
22.5
23 2
43 1
74
1933
13.7
14.0
9.1
19.9
30.6
67
1939 .
21.7
21.5
17.7
26.1
42 1
10 7
1940 .
1941
1942 .
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
25.0
31.6
36.3
44.0
47.4
40.7
35.0
39.4
41.1
38.8
25.4
32.4
37.8
47.0
50.9
42.6
35.3
39.4
40.9
38.7
23.5
31.4
39.9
54.2
59.9
45.2
31.6
37.7
39.3
35.7
27.5
33.3
34.6
37.1
38.6
38.5
39.7
41.3
42.7
42.0
46 8
49 7
51 3
52.5
56 2
55.1
54.2
61.3
64.4
57.1
11 8
13 3
14 9
16 5
17 5
17 8
18 6
20.1
22 4
23 9
1950
1951
195?
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
44.9
48.7
50.6
54.8
51.9
58.5
61.1
61.9
57.9
64.8
45.0
48.6
50.6
55.2
51.5
58.2
60.5
61.2
57.0
64.2
43.5
48.9
51.9
58.7
51.8
59.2
61.1
61.6
53.9
61.9
46.7
48.3
49.2
51.2
51.6
57.2
60.1
61.1
61.6
67.7
63.8
70.0
69.4
71.2
69.9
77.9
82.0
82.1
75.3
78.7
27.2
31 0
33 7
36.5
39.3
43.9
48.2
51.5
53.9
59.3
66.2
66.7
72.2
76.5
81.7
89.8
97.8
100.0
106.3
111.1
107.8
109.6
119.7
129.8
129.3
117.8
129.8
115.2
112.7
111.7
112.6
113.7
lib. 4
118.4
121.0
122.1
122.2
123.5
124.4
125.7
127.3
128.1
128.4
129.6
130.1
130.7
131.3
130.8
130.4
131.9
132.8
65.4
65.6
71.5
75.8
81.0
89.7
97.9
100.0
106.4
111.0
106.4
108.2
118.9
129.8
129.4
116.3
129.7
113.4
110.8
109.3
110.9
111.8
114.6
117.0
119.7
121.4
121.2
122.7
123.6
125.2
127.0
127.9
128.5
129.6
130.2
131.0
131.6
130.7
130.0
131.8
132.7
62.9
61.8
68.6
73.1
78.3
89.0
98.9
100.0
106.5
110.6
102.3
102.4
113.7
127.1
125.7
109.3
12.. 5
109.0
105.6
104.7
105.4
105.5
107.0
109.3
112.3
113.5
112.7
113.4
114.4
115.8
117.9
119.0
120.1
121.7
122.3
124.2
125.1
122.4
121.4
123.8
124.8
69.3
71.5
75.8
80.0
85.2
90.9
96.7
100.0
106.2
111.5
112.3
116.6
126.5
133.8
134.6
126.4
141.4
119.8
118.4
116.1
118.8
120.8
125. 5
128.1
130.5
132.9
133.6
136.2
136.9
138.4
140.2
140.7
140.7
140.9
141.3
141.1
140.9
142.6
142.3
143.4
144.2
80.3
80.8
83.1
86.4
89.9
93.2
98.2
100.0
104.2
108.3
112.2
109.8
113.1
114.7
115.3
112.8
114.6
113.8
114.1
113.7
112.9
111.8
113.3
110.8
111.6
111.6
113.8
114.2
112.9
113.6
112.7
113.9
113.5
113.0
114.4
112.5
114.4
115.7
117.4
116.8
116.8
63.4
67.0
72.0
77.0
83.6
88.7
95.5
100.0
108.4
117. 3
124.5
130.5
139.4
145.4
143.7
146.0
151.7
144.4
145.1
146.8
143.3
144.5
148.1
145.5
148.3
144.6
143.8
148.8
147.2
152.0
152.5
151.4
150.8
153.0
151.2
150.8
151.3
150.1
150.8
151.9
154.4
1967 proportion
.
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967 . .
1968
1969 .
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 P. _.
1975- Jan
Feb.. .
Mar
ADr
May
June
July
Aug
SeDt
Oct
Nov
Dec
1976: Jan..
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov p
Dec p
. . .
. _ _
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
230
6.36
5.69
TABLE B—38.—Industrial production indexes, market groupings, 1947—76
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Final products
Year or
month
Total
industrial
production
Consumer goods
Total
Total
l
Materials 2
Equipment
Automotive
prod-
Home
goods
Total
Busi-
Intermediate
products
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
1967 proportion... 100.00
47.82
27.68
2.83
5.06
20.14
12.63
12.89
39.29
20.35
1947
1948.
1949
39.4
41.1
38.8
38.6
40.0
38.8
42.4
43.7
43.4
45.3
47.4
47.0
37.5
39.1
36.2
30.6
32.2
28.7
38.0
39.5
34.5
41.9
44.3
42.0
39.5
41.2
37.6
38.3
39.4
35.3
1950.
1951.
1952
1953
1954
44.9
48.7
50.6
54.8
51.9
43.7
47.2
50.7
54.1
51.3
49.6
49.1
50.2
53.2
52.9
59.1
52.3
47.1
59.5
55.4
49.9
43.0
43.0
48.6
44.9
31.1
43.3
51.9
56.3
49.3
37.0
45.2
51.2
53.3
46.8
48.8
51.3
50.9
54.5
54.3
45.0
49.8
50.5
56.1
51.8
44.4
50.5
51.6
60.3
52.0
45.9
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
58.5
61.1
61.9
57.9
64.8
55.4
58.6
60.3
57.6
63.2
59.0
61.2
62.6
62.1
68.1
73.6
60.6
63.5
50.5
63.3
53.0
55.7
54.5
51.4
59.0
50.4
55.3
57.5
51.5
56.5
50.8
58.8
61.1
51.5
57.9
61.7
64.4
64.4
63.0
69.5
61.3
62.8
62.8
56.5
65.2
63.7
63.9
63.8
53.7
64.0
52.5
54.9
54.7
54.4
62.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
66.2
66.7
72.2
76.5
81.7
65.3
65.8
71.4
75.5
79.7
70.7
72.2
77.1
81.3
85.9
72.5
66.1
80.1
87.7
91.9
59.4
61.3
66.5
71.8
78.4
58.1
57.3
63.7
67.5
71.4
59.4
57.7
62.7
65.8
73.7
70.0
71.4
75.7
79.9
85.2
66.1
66.2
72.1
76.7
82.9
64.8
63.3
70.4
75.1
81.9
63.2
65.8
71.3
75.6
82.2
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
89.8
97.8
100.0
106.3
111.1
87.6
95.9
100.0
106.2
109.6
92.6
97.3
100.0
105.9
109.8
113.3
112.8
100.0
119.4
118.1
97.9
100.0
106.4
113.2
80.7
94.0
100.0
106.5
109.3
84.4
97.7
100.0
105.5
112.5
90.6
96.2
100.0
106.3
112.9
92.4
100.7
100.0
106.5
112.5
93.8
103.3
100.0
106.2
112.1
90.3
97.5
100.0
108.8
115.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
107.8
109.6
119.7
129.8
129.3
105.3
106.3
115.7
124.4
125.1
109.0
114.7
124.4
131.5
128.9
98.8
124.4
141.4
153.0
132.8
110.2
115.6
129.5
142.5
136.8
100.1
94.7
103.8
114.5
120.0
107.0
104.1
118.0
134.2
142.4
112.9
116.7
126.5
137.2
135.3
109.2
111.3
122.3
133.9
132.4
103.8
104.9
117.7
134.6
132.7
115.4
120.2
132.9
142.2
142.6
1975
117.8
118.2
124.0
125.8
118.8
110.2
128.2
123.1
115.5
109.1
126.6
1975: Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
115.2
112.7
111.7
112.6
113.7
116.4
115.2
113.5
113.4
114.7
115.6
118.2
117.0
116.1
117.0
119.0
120.4
124.3
98.6
95.6
108.4
118.1
122.4
128.9
110.4
109.7
108.0
113.2
115.5
117.3
112.7
110.0
108.6
108.7
109.2
109.8
130.8
128.0
125.7
125.6
126.0
126.6
119.5
117.9
115.9
116.9
118.1
120.8
113.7
110.1
108.3
108.8
109.8
112.6
110.6
105.3
103.0
103.2
102.9
104.3
116.6
113.9
110.8
115.2
118.7
123.2
July..
Aug_.
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.
118.4
121.0
122.1
122.2
123.5
124.4
119.7
120.8
121.5
120.9
122.3
123.5
126.6
127.5
129.0
128.7
131.1
132.3
137.0
139.1
142.1
140.8
143.2
147.7
120.8
123.5
126.7
127.0
126.5
126.4
110.0
111.4
111.3
110.0
110.0
111.5
127.3
129.9
129.2
128.8
129.6
131.6
125.0
127.9
127.6
128.0
129.3
129.9
114.5
119.0
121.0
122.0
123.1
123.3
107.3
112.9
114.5
114.6
115.2
115.5
127.1
131.6
138.8
140.3
141.3
142.6
1976: Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
125.7
127.3
128.1
128.4
129.6
130.1
123.9
125.3
126.4
126.3
127.3
127.6
133.1
134.9
136.1
136.1
137.4
137.8
142.8
148.9
155.1
155.2
154.0
156.6
130.3
131.7
132.0
133.1
137.2
137.4
111.2
112.1
112.9
112.9
113.5
113.8
131.0
132.6
134.0
134.1
134.6
135.0
133.6
135.3
134.9
134.7
135.0
135.9
125.3
127.3
128.2
129.2
130.6
131.1
118.3
121.6
122.4
124.5
126.8
127.0
142.9
145.5
146.7
146.9
146.2
147.5
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct.,.
Nov p.
Decp.
130.7
131.3
130.8
130.4
131.9
132.8
127.6
128.3
127.4
127.3
129.5
131.3
136.8
137.5
136.2
136.9
138.7
141.4
155.9
158.4
147.4
147.7
161.9
181.0
133.8
135.6
133.3
133.5
133.5
134.3
114.9
115.7
115.2
114.4
116.7
117.7
136.9
137.7
137.5
136.0
139.5
140.9
137.6
137.8
138.7
138.4
139.3
140.4
132.2
133.0
132.5
131.6
132.3
132.3
130.6
131.4
130.0
128. 5
129.1
128.1
146.0
146.1
147.8
147.0
148.1
148.6
1
Also includes clothing and consumer staples, not shown separately.
2 Also includes energy materials, not shown separately.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
231
10.47
TABLE B-39.—Industrial production indexes, selected manufactures, 1947-76
[1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Durable manufactures
'rimary metals
Period
Total
Iron
and
steel
4.21
Fabricated
metal
products
Nonelectrical
machinery
Nondurable manufactures
Transportation
equipment
Electrical
machinery
Total
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
4.50
Lumber
and
products
Apparel
products
Print- Chemicals
ing
and
and
pubprodlishing ucts
Foods
1967 proportion.
6.57
5.93
9.15
8.05
9.27
1.64
3.31
4.72
7.74
8.75
1947
1948
1949
63.3
65.8
55.4
49.9
50.8
45.8
39.0
39.2
33.4
22.2
23.0
21.6
31.8
34.8
34.9
58.9
61.3
54.1
57.8
60.3
59.7
43.3
45.4
46.6
19.7
21.3
21.0
55.8
55.2
55.9
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
69.7
75.8
69.2
78.5
63.5
70.1
56.1
59.9
58.5
66.0
59.4
37.5
47.7
51.9
54.0
46.1
29.6
29.8
34.0
39.0
34.7
41.8
46.6
54.2
68.0
59.2
60.5
65.7
65.5
64.7
68.4
68.0
64.3
63.1
66.3
67.2
66.4
48.9
49.7
49.7
52.0
54.1
26.2
29.7
31.1
33.6
34.1
57.9
59.0
60.2
61.4
62.7
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
82.5
82.0
78.5
62.3
72.7
93.2
91.5
88.2
66.5
76.5
67.8
68.8
70.6
63.3
71.0
50.6
58.0
57.9
48.6
56.7
39.9
43.1
42.8
39.2
47.6
68.0
66.0
70.7
55.8
63.2
81.2
65.8
69.0
51.0
66.2
75.9
75.0
68.8
69.9
79.3
73.3
75.0
74.9
72.8
80.1
59.5
63.2
65.4
63.9
68.2
39.8
42.7
45.2
46.6
54.3
66.3
70.1
71.1
72.9
76.5
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
72.4
71.1
76.3
82.3
92.8
77.7
74.2
77.3
84.3
95.9
71.1
69.4
75.4
77.8
82.6
56.9
55.4
62.1
66.3
75.6
51.6
54.8
62.9
64.7
68.4
65.4
61.5
71.1
78.0
80.0
74.7
65.5
79.8
88.3
90.7
74.7
78.2
82.5
86.3
92.7
81.7
82.2
85.5
89.L
92.2
71.0
71.3
73.9
77.8
82.6
56.4
59.2
65.7
71.8
78.8
78.6
80.9
83.4
86.4
90.4
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
102.1
108.4
100.0
104.3
113.8
105.2
108.4
100.0
103.2
112.6
90.8
97.2
100.0
105.6
107.9
85.0
98.8
100.0
101.8
109.3
81.7
97.9
100.0
105.5
111.9
95.1
102.0
100.0
111.1
108.4
115.9
113.9
100.0
120.3
116.5
96.3
100.0
100.0
105.5
107.9
97.4
99.9
100.0
102.9
106.7
87.9
94.6
100.0
103.2
107.4
87.8
95.7
100.0
109.5
118.4
92.4
96.0
100.0
102.6
106.1
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
106.6
100.2
112.1
126.7
123.1
104.7
96.1
107.1
122.3
119.8
102.4
103.5
112.1
124.7
124.2
104.4
100.2
116.0
133.7
140.1
108.1
107.7
122.2
143.1
143.8
89.5
97.9
108.2
118.3
108.7
92.3
118.6
135.8
148.8
128.2
105.6
113.8
120.8
126.0
116.2
101.4
104.7
109.4
117.3
114.3
107.0
107.1
112.7
118.2
118.2
120.4
125.9
143.6
154.5
159.4
108.9
112.8
116.8
120.9
124.0
96.4
95.8
109.9
125.1
116.5
97.4
111.1
107.6
107.6
113.3
147.3
123.4
1975: Jan.._.
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June...
105.5
103.4
98.4
95.0
90.8
90.6
107.7
108.7
104.4
97.9
89.4
89.4
105.9
104.1
103.9
106.4
106.2
106.7
128.4
125.7
122.7
122.1
122.0
122.6
118.4
113.5
110.6
112.7
112.4
112.4
88.7
83.3
88.5
90.8
94.6
97.9
91.7
84.7
95.2
101.7
104.9
110.2
95.0
96.7
98.0
100.8
105.4
108.6
96.6
102.4
97.6
100.4
104.5
105.1
111.7
111.5
109.9
108.5
111.4
113.3
141.7
136.9
134.6
136.4
139.5
144.7
117.8
117.9
116.6
120.2
121.1
124.3
July..
Aug...
Sept.Oct. Nov...
Dec...
92.3
97.7
97.9
95.4
98.1
92.6
87.0
92.7
93.4
92.0
96.5
89.1
108.9
113.8
115.3
114.4
116.3
117.3
123.9
126.2
125.5
125.4
126.6
128.6
116.5
118.0
120.2
120.1
120.1
122.7
101.1
105.0
105.9
104.4
104.7
106.7
116.3
123.7
126.8
126.5
127.1
130.1
110.6
113.6
115.8
116.8
114.1
116.4
106.3
112.8
111.5
115.9
118.3
121.2
115.5
115.3
114.7
113.2
115.4
118.4
147.1
150.8
154.4
157.5
161.9
163.3
125.4
125.8
126.2
126.4
128.8
128.5
1976: Jan. ..
Feb...
Mar.__.
Apr...
May..
June..
9S.1
103.9
101.4
105.4
113.2
111.5
92.9
100.9
97.7
103.5
110.7
110.0
116.6
120.9
120.2
121.5
121.4
124.0
129.0
131.5
132.9
133.5
134.0
133.5
124.7
126.5
127.8
130.0
131.8
132.0
105.8
109.0
111.2
110.6
112.9
112.6
126.7
135.2
140.8
141.3
144.3
146.5
123.5
123.9
121.1
122.8
123.0
120.3
123.8
128.0
126.3
126.1
130.3
126.8
120.0
121.0
121.0
122.0
120.5
119.7
162.9
167.6
170.6
168.7
166.6
170.0
129.2
130.8
128.3
129.2
131.2
130.5
July...
Aug...
Sept...
Oct....
Nov p..
Dec p . .
116.9
118.6
114.1
109.8
106.7
100.4
115.3
116.2
110.3
105.1
102.7
94.6
124.6
125.8
126.6
123.5
126.2
126.6
135.0
136.4
136.8
134.4
137.2
138.0
131.0
135.3
133.7
134.8
135.6
137.0
113.3
115.0
104.4
104.3
113.0
120.9
148.5
150.6
130.2
128.3
145.6
161.1
124.6
128.1
128.7
130.7
131.7
125.6
123.7
122.5
126.6
122.0
120.6
120.6
119.2
121.3
167.6
170.4
170.5
170.1
172.8
131.8
133.4
135.7
136.1
135.8
1975..
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
232
TABLE B-40.—Capacity utilization rate in manufacturing, 1948—76
[Percent; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Year or
quarter
Total
Primary
manu- procfacessing
turing
Wharton series 3
Commerce series 2
FRB series *
Advanced
processing
Total
manufacturing
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Primaryprocessed
goods
Advancedprocessed
goods
Total
manufacturing
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
82.5
74.2
87.3
76.2
80.0
73.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
82.8
85.8
85.4
89.2
80.1
88.5
90.2
84.9
89.4
80.6
79.8
83.4
85.9
89.3
80.0
88.9
90.3
88.4
92.4
82.9
83.7
87.2
86.0
93.3
79.5
96.1
94.8
91.8
91.2
87.7
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
87.0
86.1
83.6
75.0
81.6
92.0
89.4
84.7
75.4
83.0
84.2
84.4
83.1
74.9
81.1
91.4
90.8
88.0
77.5
84.0
90.2
89.1
86.1
70.8
78.6
93.1
93.4
90.8
87.4
92.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
80.1
77.3
81.4
83.5
85.7
79.8
77.9
81.5
83.8
87.8
80.5
77.2
81.6
83.4
84.6
82.1
79.1
82.5
84.0
86.8
77.0
72.9
77.7
79.6
82.9
89.8
88.5
89.8
90.8
92,8
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
89.5
91.1
86.9
87.0
86.2
91.0
91.4
85.7
87.6
88.6
88.9
91.1
87.6
86.8
85.0
92.4
96.6
93.5
95.0
95.3
90.6
96.0
91.8
93.7
94.0
95.3
97.5
96.0
97.0
97.2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
79.2
78.0
83.1
87.5
84.2
82.8
82. C
88.0
92.4
87.5
77.3
75.9
80.5
84.9
82.3
87.9
86.4
91.8
97.1
93.0
84.2
82.3
88.9
96.6
91.9
93.5
92.9
96.3
98.0
94.7
1975
73.6
73.4
73.7
80.4
77.1
86.0
1971: I
IL...
III...
IV....
77.5
77.9
77.8
79.0
81.7
82.9
81.1
82.4
75.3
75.2
75.9
77.1
86.2
86.3
86.0
87.2
82.5
82.5
81.4
82.8
92.0
92.3
93.1
94.1
1972: L.__.
IL...
III...
IV....
80.9
82.4
83.4
85.8
85.2
87.2
88.6
91.1
78.6
79.8
80.6
83.1
89.3
90.9
92.1
94.9
85.6
87.7
89.3
93.1
95.1
96.0
96.4
97.8
1973: I.....
IL__.
III...
IV...
87.1
87.6
87.8
87.7
91.8
92.1
92.7
93. G
84.5
85.2
85.0
85.0
96.4
97.2
97.4
97.5
95.4
96.4
97.1
97.4
98.1
98.5
97.9
97.6
1974: I
85.7
85.8
85.5
79.7
90.5
90.0
89.0
80.4
83.0
83.4
83.6
79.3
94.7
94.8
94.6
87.8
93.3
93.5
93.9
86.9
96.9
96.8
95.7
89.2
70.9
71.3
75.3
76.8
69.5
70.0
75.8
78.1
71.5
72.1
75.0
76.1
77.4
77.9
82.4
84.0
74.8
74.7
78.8
80.0
81.5
83.3
88.3
90.7
79.0
80.2
80.2
81.5
82.5
78.2
79.2
79.6
86.4
87.8
88.0
82.6
84.9
85.7
92.7
92.6
91.8
1948
1949
_.
III."!
IV....
1975: !..._.
III."."
IV....
1976: I . . . . .
II—
III*.
1 For description of the series, see "Federal Reserve Bulletin," November 1976.
2 Quarterly data ate for last month in quarter. Annual data are averages of the four indexes, except for 1965 (December
index) and 1966-67 (averages of June and December indexes). For description of the series, see "Survey of Current Business," July 1974.
3 Annual data are averages of quarterly indexes. For description of the series, see F. Gerard Adams and Robert Summers,
"The Wharton Index of Capacity Utilization: A Ten Year Perspective," 1973 Proceedings of the Business and Economic
Statistics Section, American Statistical Association.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis),
and Wharton School of Finance.
233
T A B L E B-41.—New construction activity, 1929-76
{Value put in place, billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Private construction
Year or month
Total
new
construction
Nonresidential buildings and other
construction^
Residential
buildings1
Total
Total *
1929
Public construction
New
housing
units
Federal
State
and
local 5
2.5
02
2 3
1.6
.5
1.1
Total
Total
Commercial 3
Industrial
Other*
1.1
0.9
2.6
.2
.5
10.8
8.3
3.6
3.0
4.7
1933....
2.9
1.2
.5
.3
.8
1939
8.2
4.4
2.7
2.3
1.7
.3
.3
1.2
3.8
.8
31
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
8.7
12.0
14.1
8.3
5.3
5.1
6.2
3.4
2.0
2.2
3.0
3.5
1.7
.9
.8
2.6
3.0
1.4
.7
.6
2.1
2.7
1.7
1.1
1.4
.3
.4
.2
.0
.1
.4
.8
.3
.2
.2
1.3
1.5
1.2
.9
1.1
3.6
5.8
10.7
6.3
3.1
1.2
3.8
9.3
5.6
2.5
2.4
20
1.3
7
.6
1945
1946
New series
5.8
14.3
3.4
12.1
1.3
6.2
.7
4.8
2.1
5.8
.2
1.2
.6
1.7
1.3
3.0
2.4
2.2
1.7
.9
.7
1.4
1947
1948
1949.
20.0
26.1
26.7
16.7
21.4
20.5
9.9
13.1
12.4
7.8
10.5
10.0
6.9
8.2
8.0
1.0
1.4
1.2
1.7
1.4
1.0
4.2
5.5
5.9
3.3
4.7
6.3
.8
1.2
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.8
33.6
35.4
36.8
39.1
41.4
26.7
26.2
26.0
27.9
29.7
18.1
15.9
15.8
16.6
18.2
15.6
13.2
12.9
13.4
14.9
8.6
10.3
10.2
11.3
11.5
1.4
1.5
1.1
1.8
2.2
1.1
2.1
2.3
2.2
2.0
6.1
6.7
6.8
7.3
7.2
6.9
9.3
10.8
11.2
11.7
1.6
3.0
4.2
4.1
3.4
5.2
6.3
6.6
7.1
8.3
1955 . .
1956
1957
1958...
1959...
46.5
47.6
49.1
50.0
55.4
34.8
34.9
35.1
34.6
39.3
21.9
20.2
19.0
19.8
24.3
18.2
16.1
14.7
15.4
19.2
12.9
14.7
16.1
14.8
15.1
3.2
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.9
2.4
3.1
3.6
2.4
2.1
7.3
8.0
9.0
8.8
9.0
11.7
12.7
14.1
15.5
16.1
2.8
2.7
3.0
3.4
3.7
8.9
10.0
11.1
12.1
12.3
1960...
1961
1962
1963- .
1964...
54.7
56.4
60.2
64.8
67.7
38.9
39.3
42.3
45.5
47.3
23.0
23.1
25.2
27.9
28.0
17.3
17.1
19.4
21.7
21.8
15.9
16.2
17.2
17.6
19.3
4.2
4.7
5.1
5.0
5.4
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.6
8.9
8.7
9.2
9.7
10.3
15.9
17.1
17.9
19.4
20.4
3.6
3.9
3.9
4.0
3.9
12.2
13.3
14.0
15.4
16.5
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969...
73 7
76 4
78 1
87.1
93.9
51 7
52 4
52 5
59.5
66.0
27 9
25.7
25 6
30.6
33.2
21 7
19 4
19 0
24.0
25.9
23 8
26.7
27 0
28.9
32.8
6.0
6.8
15.1
16.6
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.4
3.3
18.0
20.0
7.8
9.4
22.1
24.0
25.5
27.6
28.0
"24 2
24.7
1970. .
1971
1972
1973..1974
94.9
110.0
124.1
137.9
138.5
66.8
80.1
93.9
105.4
100.2
31.9
43.3
54.3
59.7
50.4
24.3
35.1
44.9
50.1
40.6
34.9
36.8
39.6
45.7
49.8
9.8
11.6
13.5
15.5
15.9
6.5
5.4
4.7
6.2
7.9
18.6
19.8
21.5
24.0
26.0
28.1
29.9
30.2
32.5
38.3
3.3
4.0
4.4
4.9
5.3
24.8
25.9
25.8
27.7
33. C
132.0
93.0
46.5
34.4
46.6
12.8
8.0
25.7
39.0
6.1
32.9
1950
1951...
1952...
1953..
1954...
1975...
.
..
_ _
See footnotes at end of table.
234
TABLE B-41.—New construction activity, 1929-76—Continued
[Value put in place, billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Private construction
Residential
buildings i
Total
new
Year or month
construction
Total
Nonresidential buildings and other
construction i
New
Total J
nousing
units
Public construction
cials
Total
Industrial
Commer-
Total
Federal
State
and
local*
Other *
130.2
127.4
123.7
126.2
127.1
129.7
93.8
91.1
89.5
89.2
89.9
90.6
44.0
42.8
42.7
43.2
43.9
44.7
33.4
31.9
31.4
31.3
31.5
32.2
49.8
48.3
46.8
46.1
45.9
45.9
15.1
14.5
13.4
12.7
12.3
12.2
8.5
8.4
8.1
8.0
8.4
8.1
26.2
25.4
25.3
25.3
25.2
25.5
36.4
36.3
34.2
37.0
37.2
39.1
5.7
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
30.7
30.2
28.4
31.2
31.4
33.3
July....
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec
133.1
132.2
136.3
136.2
138.0
137.8
92.0
92.1
95.4
95.6
97.3
98.1
46.1
46.3
48.4
49.4
50.4
52.1
33.4
33.6
35.7
37.5
38.9
39.9
45.8
45.7
47.0
46.2
46.9
46.0
12.3
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.2
8.2
8.0
7.9
7.6
7.7
7.6
25.3
25.3
26.7
26.2
26.8
26.2
41.1
40.1
40.9
40.6
40.7
39.8
6.2
6.3
6.3
59
6.6
6.6
35.0
33.9
34.6
34.7
34.1
33.2
1976:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June
136.7
139.0
145.1
144.5
143.4
145.4
99.3
102.6
107.1
106.6
107.2
106.5
52.8
55.2
58.1
58.9
58.8
58.7
39.3
41.1
43.8
44.2
43.9
45.4
46.6
47.4
48.9
47.7
48.4
47.8
11.5
12.8
13.3
12.6
12.3
12.0
7.5
7.8
7.6
7.2
7.0
6.7
27.6
26.8
28.0
27.9
29.1
29.1
37.4
36.4
38.0
37.9
36.2
38.9
6.2
6.7
6.1
6.6
6.0
6.4
31.2
29.7
32.0
31.3
30.2
32.6
July....
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov*—
141.1
142.0
146.3
146.7
150.2
104.3
104.7
108.7
112.8
116.3
57.2
55.4
58.7
63.5
66.6
46.9
46.5
48.8
51.1
52.9
47.1
49.3
49.9
49.3
49.7
12.6
13.0
12.8
12.6
12.4
6.1
6.9
6.9
6.4
6.5
28.4
29.4
30.3
30.4
30.7
36.8
37.3
37.6
34.0
33.9
6.4
6.4
7.6
5.7
7.0
30.4
30.9
30.0
28.2
26.9
1975:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
1
Beginning I960, farm residential buildings included in residential buildings; prior to 1960, included in nonresidential
buildings and other construction.
2
Total includes additions and alterations and nonhousekeeping units, not shown separately.
3
Office buildings, warehouses, stores, restaurants, garages, etc.
* Religious, educational, hospital and institutional, miscellaneous nonresidential, farm (see also footnote 1), public
utilities, and all other private.
5
Includes Federal grants-in-aid for State and local projects.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), except as noted.
235
TABLE B-42.—New housing units started and authorized, 1959-76
[Thousands of units]
New housing units started
Private and
public 1
Private 1
New private housing units
authorized2
Total (farm and nonfarm)
Year or month
Total
(farm
and
nonfarm)
Nonfarm
Type of structure
Total
One
unit
1959_.
. 553.7 ,531.3
,
517.0 1, 234.0
1960_.
1961_.
1962_.
1963_.
1964_.
. 296.1
,
. 365.0
,
, 492.5
. 634.9
,
. 561.0
,
., 274.0
1,336.8
,468.7
,614.8
, 534.0
994.7
252.2
974.3
313.0
991.4
462.9
603.2 1,012.4
970.5
528.8
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968-.
1969_.
. 509.7
,
1,195.8
1,321.9
. 545.4
,
, 499. 5
., 487.5
,172.8
, 298.8
,521.4
, 482.3
472.8
164.9
291.6
507.6
466.8
1970..
1971.
1972_
1973.
1974_
1, 469.0
2,084.5
2, 378. 5
2,057. 5
" 352.5
1975.
1,171.4
2 to 4
units
5 units
or
more
257.4
338.7
471.5
590.8
108.4
450.0
One
unit
1, 208.3
283.0
Total
998.0
1,064.2
1,186.6
1, 334.7
1, 285.8
2 to 4
units
5 units
or more
938.3
77.1
192.9
746.1
722.8
716.2
750.2
720.1
64.6
67.6
87.1
118.9
100.8
187.4
273.8
383.3
465.6
464.9
963.7
778.6
843.9
899.4
810.6
86.6
61.1
71.6
80.9
85.0
422.5
325.1
376.1
527.3
571.2
1, 239.8
971.9
1,141.0
1, 353.4
1, 323. 7
709.9
563.2
650.6
694.7
625.9
84.8
61.0
73.0
84.3
85.2
445.1
347.7
417.5
574.4
612.7
, 433.6
812.9
,052.2 1,151.0
, 356.6 1,309.2
, 045.3 1,132.0
, 337. 7
888.1
84.8
120.3
141.3
118.3
68.1
535.9
780.9
906.2
795.0
381.6
1,351.5
646.8
1,924.6
906.1
2,218.9 1, 033.1
882.1
1, 819. 5
643.8
1, 074. 4
88.1
132.9
148.6
117.0
64.3
616.7
885.7
1, 037.2
820.5
366.2
64.0
204.3
675.5
63.9
199.8
160.4
892.2
939.2
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1975:Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
56.9
56.2
81.1
98.4
117.0
110.9
1,005
953
986
982
1,085
1,080
748
722
763
774
853
874
41
48
46
45
53
56
216
183
177
163
179
150
78
1
79
2
71
2
83
4
903
938
55
2
59
2
51
4
65
0
647
667
45
57
44
61
57
62
18
4
13
4
16
3
17
7
199
209
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.
120.1
118.7
112.8
125.0
97.2
77.1
1,207
1,264
1,304
1,431
1,381
1,283
916
979
966
1,093
1,048
962
76
67
76
103
79
77
215
218
262
235
254
244
1,016
998
1,092
1,111
1,127
1,091
699
725
772
794
814
812
72
61
71
84
83
72
245
212
249
233
230
207
1976:Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr_.
May..
June.
72.9
91.6
118.8
137.4
148.3
155.1
1,236
1,547
1,417
1,367
1,422
1,510
957
1,295
1,110
1,055
1,065
1,139
70
62
80
76
94
76
209
190
227
236
263
295
1,147
1,165
1,188
1,082
1,158
1,150
851
863
882
803
807
829
71
76
77
71
7
5
7
2
225
226
229
208
26
7
29
4
137.5
147.6
153.1
150.2
128.2
1,382
1,537
1,840
1,813
1,705
1,123
1,171
1,280
1,340
1,237
69
84
114
102
94
190
282
446
371
374
1,215
1,296
1,504
1,492
1,585
870
874
926
998
1,085
7
3
9
3
16
0
10
1
19
0
22
7
39
2
42
7
384
391
July...
Aug...
Sept...
Oct....
Nov p.
1
Units in structures built by private developers for sale upon completion to local public housing authorities under the
Department of Housing and Urban Development "Turnkey" program are classified as private housing. Military housing
starts, including those financed with mortgages insured by FHA under Section 803 of the National Housing Act, are included
in publicly owned starts but excluded from total private starts.
2 Authorized by issuance of local building permit: in 14,000 permit-issuing places beginning 1972; 13,000 for 1967-71;
12,000 for 1963-66; and 10,000 prior to 1963.
3 Not available separately beginning January 1970.
Note.—Only the series on private and public nonfarm housing units started is available prior to 1959. See 1976 "Economic Report" for this earlier series.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
236
TABLE B-43.-—Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1947-77l
(Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nonmanufacturing
Manufacturing
Year
or quarter
Total
Total
Transportation
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Mining
Railroad
Air
Other
Public Comutili- munities
cation
Commercial
and
others
19.33
21.30
18.98
8.44
9.01
7.12
3.25
3.30
2.45
5.19
5.71
4.68
10.89
12.29
11.86
0.69
.93
.88
0.91
1.37
1.42
0.17
.10
.12
1.13
1.17
.76
1.54
2.54
3.10
1.40
1.74
1.34
5.05
4.42
4.24
20.21
25.46
26.43
28.20
27.19
7.39
10.71
11.45
11.86
11.24
2.94
4.82
5.21
5.31
4.91
4.45
5.89
6.24
6.56
6.33
12.82
14.75
14.98
16.34
15.95
.84
1.11
1.21
1.25
1.28
1.18
1.58
1.50
1.42
.93
.10
.14
.24
.24
.24
1.09
1.33
1.23
1.29
1.22
3.24
3.56
3.74
4.34
3.99
1.14
1.37
1.61
1.78
1.82
5.22
5.67
5.45
6.02
6.45
29.53
35.73
37.94
31.89
33.55
11.89
15.40
16.51
12.38
12.77
5.41
7.45
7.84
5.61
5.81
6.48
7.95
8.68
6.77
6.95
17.64
20.34
21.43
19.51
20.78
1.31
1.64
1.69
1.43
1.36
1.02
1.37
1.58
.86
1.02
.26
.35
.41
.37
.78
1.30
1.31
1.30
1.06
1.33
4.03
4.52
5.67
5.52
5.14
2.11
2.82
3.19
2.79
2.72
7.63
8.32
7.60
7.48
8.44
1960
1961
1962 . .
1963
1964
36.75
35.91
38.39
40.77
46.97
15.09
14 33
15.06
16.22
19.34
7.23
6.31
6.79
7.53
9.28
7.85
8.02
8.26
8.70
10.07
21.66
21.58
23.33
24.55
27.62
1.30
1.29
1.40
1.27
1.34
1.16
.82
1.02
1.26
1.66
.66
.73
.52
.40
1.02
1.30
1.23
1.65
1.58
1.50
5.24
5.00
4.90
4.98
5.49
3.24
3.39
3.85
4.06
4.61
8.75
9.13
9.99
10.99
12.02
1965
1966
1967 . . .
1968
1969
54.42
63.51
65.47
67.76
75.56
23.44
28.20
28.51
28.37
31.68
11.50
14.06
14.06
14.12
15.96
11.94
14.14
14.45
14.25
15.72
30.98
35.32
36.96
39.40
43.88
1.46
1.62
1.65
1.63
1.86
1.99
2.37
1.86
1.45
1.86
1.22
1.74
2.29
2.56
2.51
1.68
1.64
1.48
1.59
1.68
6.13
7.43
8.74
10.20
11.61
5.30
6.02
6.34
6.83
8.30
13.19
14.48
14.59
15.14
16.05
1970
1971
1972.. .
1973
1974
79.71
81.21
88.44
99.74
112.40
31.95
29 99
31.35
38 01
46.01
15.80
14.15
15.64
19.25
22.62
16.15
15.84
15.72
18.76
23.39
47.76
51.22
57.09
61.73
66.39
1.89
2.16
2.42
2.74
3.18
1.78
1.67
1.80
1.96
2.54
3.03
1.88
2.46
2.41
2.00
1.23
1.38
1.46
1.66
2.12
13.14
15.30
17.00
18.71
20.55
10.10
10.77
11.89
12.85
13.96
16.59
18.05
20.07
21.40
22.05
1975
1976 3
112.78
121.23
47.95
52.98
21.84
23.60
26.11
29.38
64.82
68.25
3.79
3.97
2.55
2.35
1.84
1.32
3.18
3.58
20.14
22.44
12.74
13.63
20.60
20.96
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.
.
*•
1977 3
134.95
59 58
26 47
33.11
75.37
4.41
2.59
1.67
2.56
25.60
1974: 1
II....
III...
IV....
107.27
111.40
113.99
116.22
42.96
45.32
47.04
48.08
21.43
22.50
23.08
23.28
21.53
22.82
23.96
24.80
64.31
66.08
66.94
68.14
2.80
3.07
3.27
3.56
2.10
2.42
2.68
3.05
2.13
2.21
1.84
1.81
1.63
1.84
2.16
2.71
20.12
20.97
20.16
20.93
13.83
13.94
14.01
14.04
21.69
21.63
22.84
22.04
1975: 1
II....
III....
114.57
112.46
112.16
111.80
49.05
48.78
47.39
46.82
22.86
22.59
21.01
21.07
26.20
26.19
26.38
25.75
65.52
63.68
64.76
64.98
3.76
3.78
3.82
3.82
2.39
2.70
2.75
2.39
2.09
1.60
2.12
1.65
2.82
2.75
2.99
3.56
20.28
19.52
19.79
20.91
13.36
12.50
12.95
12.22
20.82
20.83
20.34
20.44
1976: 1
IL...
III....
114.72
118.12
122.55
49.21
50.64
54.78
21.63
22.54
24.59
27.58
28.09
30.20
65.51
67.48
67.76
3.83
3.83
4.21
2.08
2.64
2.69
1.18
1.44
1.12
3.29
4.16
3.44
21.91
21.85
21.67
12.54
12.62
13.64
20.68
20.94
20.99
IV 3... 127.87
56.23
25.23
31.00
71.64
4.03
1.98
1.51
3.34
24.05
36 73
25.52
26.45
31.47
31.12
72.38
73.70
4.22
1.45
2.67
24.57
37 26
1977: | 3 . . _ _ 129.38
131.28
113
56.99
57.58
2.22
38. 54
1
Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural services; and nonprofit
organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresjdential fixed investment data in the gross national
product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers, professionals, nonprofit institutions, and
real estate firms, and certain outlays charged to current account.
2 Commercial and other includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.
3
Estimates based on expected capital expenditures reported by business in October-December 1976. Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in expectations data.
Note.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
237
224-250 O - 77 - 16
TABLE B-44.—Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1947-76
(Amounts in millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Total manufacturing
and trade
Manufacturing
Merchant wholesalers
Retail trade
Year or month
Sales i
Inventories 2
Ratio 3 Sales i
Inventories 2
Ralio 3
1.58
1.57
1.75
Sales i
Inventories 2
Ratio 3
1947..
1948..
1949..
35,260
33,788
52, 507
49,497
15,513 25,897
1.42 17,316 28, 543
1.53 16,126 26,321
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
38, 596
43,356
44, 840
47,987
46,443
59,822
70, 242
72,377
76,122
73,175
1.36
1.55
1.58
1.58
1.60
18,634
21,714
22, 529
24,843
23,355
31,078
39,306
41,136
43,948
41,612
48
66
78
76
81
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
51,694
54, 063
55, 879
54, 200
59,728
79,516
87,304
89, 052
87, 094
92,132
1.47
1.55
1.59
1.60
1.50
26,480
27, 740
28,736
27, 247
30,286
45,069
50,642
51,871
50, 242
52,948
62
73
80
84
70
9,893
10,513
10,475
10, 257
11,491
I960..
1961.
1962..
1963..
1964..
60,828 94, 718
61,160 95, 596
65,660 101, 064
68, 995 105,482
73, 682 111,501
1.56
1.54
1.50
1.49
1.47
30, 879
30,923
33, 357
35,058
37, 330
53, 785
54,887
58,187
60, 048
63, 407
76
74
70
69
64
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
80, 283 120,912
87,186 136,789
89,746 145,364
145, "
97,124 155,
-".,364
103,120 168, 297
1.45
1.48
1.57
1.55
1.57
40,995
44, 869
46,487
50, 269
53, 540
68,190
77, 951
84, 527
90,394
98,011
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
\,
104, 708 175, 418 1.64
! 323 ,
, _
112, _ 184, 756 1.61
125, 269 198, 045 1.52
145,297 227,926 1.46
166, 771 278, 386 1.51
1975..
172, 525 275, 484 1.60 87, 240 155, 693
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
166,596 278, 710
,
168,070 277, 867
164,116 276, 634
167, 687 275, 628
167,995 274,139
.
170, 625 ""1,418
273,
1.67
1.65
1.69
1.64
1.63
1.60
83,937
83, 996
82, 564
85,511
84, 382
85, 787
159, 271
159,
159; 677
159,087
158, 392
157,659
156, 582
.90
.90
.93
.85
.87
.83
36.675
37,120
35,590
35,228
35,442
36,186
46,197
45,951
45,527
45,303
44,558
44,850
1.26
1.24
1.28
1.29
1.26
1.24
Dec
173, 802 273,277
176, 001 274, 906
177, 475 275, 576
178,621 277, 680
....
178,119 276, 804
181,647 275, 484
1.57
1.56
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.52
87, 824
89,061
90, 227
91,177
90, 549
92, 553
155,
1,926
155,426
155, 534
155,984
156,121
155i
'".,693
.78
.75
.72
.71
.72
.68
36,567
37,166
37,604
37,449
37,C18
37,36C
44,653
45,5C1
45,625
45,715
45,554
45,115
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
183, 818 277, 057
186,968 279, 008
190, 224 281, 256
191, 745 283,062
190, 800 285,693
193, 700 289,138
1.51
1.49
1.48
1.48
1.50
1.49
94,067 ]
156,120
95, 551 1156,458
97,786 157;! 560
157,
98, 519 1
158,134
98, 546 1
159,488
98; 937 161,118
.66
.64
.61
.61
.62
.63
38,159
38,816
39,094
39,530
39,386
40,780
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
193,704 290, 866
194,672 293, 308
194, 261 296, 537
192,963 298,179
196,942 298,490
1.50
1.51
1.53
1.55
1.52
99,334 162,
!,144
99, 448 163,184
98,780 164,966
97, 653 166,674
100, 458 166,915
.63
.64
.67
.71
1.66
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
1976:
52,831 101, 502
55,925 102, 490
63, 042 108,072
72,954 124, 395
84, 612 157,971
Sales i
InvenRatio 3
tories 2
10,200 14,241
1.13 11,135 16,007
1.19 11,149 15,470
1.26
1.39
1.41
1.07
1.16
1.12
1.17
1.18
12,268
13,046
13, 529
14,091
14,095
19,460
21,050
21, 031
21,488
20,926
1.38
1.64
1.52
1.53
1.51
11,678
13, 260
12,730
12, 739
13,879
1.13
1.19
1.23
1.24
1.15
15,321
15,811
16,667
16,696
17,951
22,769
23,402
24,451
24,113
25,305
1.43
1.47
1.44
1.43
1.40
11,656
11,988
12,674
13, 382
14,529
14,120
14,488
14,936
16, 048
17,000
1.22
1.20
1.16
1.15
1.14
18, 294
18, 249
19,630
20, 556
21,823
26, 813
26, 221
27,941
29,386
31,094
1.45
1.43
1.38
1.39
1.40
60
62
76
74
76
15,611
16,987
17,108
18,366
19, 756
18,317
20,765
21,885
22,997
24,910
1.15
1.15
1.23
1.22
1.21
23,677
25,330
26,151
28,490
29,824
34,405
38,073
38,952
41,973
45,376
1.39
1.44
1.46
1.43
1.46
89
83
67
58
66
20, 583
22,327
24,862
30, 400
37,344
27,290
29,695
32,817
38.302
46,564
1.26
1.27
1.24
1.16
1.13
31,294
34,071
37, 365
41,943
44,815
46,626
52,571
57,156
65,229
73,851
1.47
1.47
1.46
1.46
1.53
6,808
6,514
7,957
7,706
7,695 9,284
8,597 9,886
8,782 10,210
9,052 10,686
8,993 10,637
1.24 48,702 74,676
1.51
45,984
46,954
45,962
46,948
48,171
48,652
73,242
72,239
72,020
71,933
71,922
71,986
1.59
1.54
1.57
1.53
1.49
1.48
1.22
1.22
1.21
1.22
1.23
1.21
49,411
49,774
49,644
49,995
50,552
51,734
72,698
73,979
74,417
75,981
75,129
74,676
1.47
1.49
1.50
1.52
1.49
1.44
45,645
46,307
46,398
46,826
47,799
48,645
1.20
1.19
1.19
1.18
1.21
1.19
51,592
52,601
53,344
53,696
52,868
53,983
75,292
76,243
77,298
78,102
78,406
79,375
1.46
1.45
1.45
1.45
1.48
1.47
40,616 48,805
40,581 49,006
41,381 49,723
40.676 49,847
40,827 50,165
1.20
1.21
1.20
1.23
1.23
53,754
54,643
54,100
54,634
55,657
57,371
79,917
81,118
81,848
81,658
81,410
1.49
1.48
1.51
1.49
1.46
36,583 45,115
Dec*
1 Monthly average for year and total for month.
2
Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
3
Inventory /sales ratio. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
Note.—The inventory figures in this table do not agree with the estimates of change in business inventories included
in the gross national product since these figures cover only manufacturing and trade rather than all business, and show
inventories in terms of current book value without adjustment for revaluation.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
238
TABLE B-45.—Manufacturers9 shipments and inventories, 1947-76
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Inventories1
Shipments *
Durable goods industries
Year or montl
Total
Dura
ble
goods
industries
Nondurable
goods
industries
Total
Total
Materials
and
supplies
15,539
20,99:
23,73:
25,878
23,710
15,539
18,315
17,405
6,206 18,070
6,040 17,902
6,694
7,579
7,19
8,81!
9,731
8,93!
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
18,634
21,714
22,52S
24,843
23,35!
8,84!
10,49;
11 31
13,34'
11,82.
9,78S
11,221
11,216
11,494
11,527
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
26,480
27,740
28,736
27, 247
30, 286
14,07
14,715
15,237
13, 563
15, 609
12,409 45,069 26,401 9,194
13,025 50,642 30,447 10,417
13,499 51,871 31,728 10,608
13, 684 50, 242 30,259 10, 041
14, 677 52, 948 32,077 10, 78:
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
30,879
30,923
33,357
35,058
37, 330
15,883
15,616
17, 262
18, 280
19,637
14, 996
15,307
16,095
16, 778
17,693
53, 785
54, 887
58,187
60,048
63, 407
32, 375
32, 544
34, 632
35,867
38, 506
10,354
10, 276
10, 802
11,062
11,958
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
40, 995
44, 869
46, 487
50,269
53, 540
22, 221
24, 648
25, 267
27,698
29,477
68,190
77, 951
84, 527
90, 394
98,011
42,264
49, 922
54,885
58,675
64, 561
1970...
1971...
1972..
1973...
1974...
>2, 831
15,925
i3, 042
r
2, 954
!4, 612
28,215
29, 973
34,042
39, 704
44, 043
18, 773
20, 220
21, 220
22, 570
24,064
24,616
25,953
28, 999
33, 250
40, 569
.01, 502
02, 490
08, 072
24, 395
.57, 971
66,648
66,149
70, 098
81,218
.01, 780
13,311
15, 033
16, 397
17,314
18, 638
19,123
19,681
20, 752
25,892
35, 809
37, 240 43, 911
Jan....,
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
83, 937
83, 996
82, 564
85,511
84, 382
B5, 787
43, 058
42, 864
42,242
43,406
42, 568
42, 963
July....
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec
87, 824
89, 061
90, 227
91,177
90, 549
92, 553
1976: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June
July....
Aug
Sept....
Oct
N
Materials
and
supplies
FinWork
in
ished
process goods
12,836
13,881
13,261
15,51
17,311
16,121
1975:
Total
25,89! 13,06!
28,54: 14,66:
26,32! 13,061
1947.
1948..
1949..
1975...
FinWork
in
ished
process goods
Nondurable goods industries
31,071
39, 306
41,136
43,948
41,612
2,472
2,440
7,409
7,415
10,756 6,348 18,664 8,556
12,317 7,565 20,195 8,971
12 837 8,125 20,143 8,775
12, 391 7,829 19, 983 8,674
13, 065 8,232 20,871 9,097
12,777 9,243 21,410 9,104
13, 210 9,058 22, 343 9,519
14,170 9,659 23, 555 9,844
14,885 9,920 24,182 10, 005
16, 209 10, 342 24, 901 10,151
2,571
2,721
2,864
2,835
2,950
7,666
8,622
8,624
8,474
8,825
18, 098
22, 583
24, 984
27, 265
30, 329
8,966 10,720
7,894 9,721
29, 785
28, 586
30, 738
35, 440
41, 254
10, 853
12, 305
13, 505
14,121
15,606
17,714
17,839
18, 556
19,812
24, 613
8,317
8,167
2,949 9,357
3,109 9,715
3,297 10,414
3,410 10,764
3,522 11,229
25, 926
28,029
29, 641
31,719
33, 450
10, 464
11,163
11,714
12, 287
12,718
3,820
4,222
4,432
4,851
5,117
11,643
12,645
13,496
14,581
15,612
34, 854
36,341
37, 974
43,177
56,191
13,139
13,661
14, 655
17, 882
23, 963
5,269
5,676
6,009
6,751
8,503
16,447
17,003
17,306
18, 545
23, 726
43, 328 55, 693 00, 310 33,145 41, 304 25, 747 55, 382 23, 023
8,234 24,124
41,132
40, 322
42,104
41, 813
42, 824
59, 271
59, 677
59, 087
58, 392
57, 659
.56, 582
[02, 828
:03, 808
.03, 705
03, 880
03, 730
03, 216
36, 540
36, 938
36,663
36,166
35,681
35, 470
41,069
41,358
41, 286
41, 766
41, 889
41, 866
25,076
25, 389
25, 714
25, 962
26, 231
26, 026
56,442
55, 869
55, 382
54, 512
53, 928
53, 366
23,881
23, 559
23, 351
22, 838
22,630
22,077
8,214
8,161
8,030
8,001
7,879
7,929
24,345
24,149
24, 001
23,672
23,420
23,359
43,962
44, 552
45,292
45, 243
44, 548
46, 772
43, 862
44, 509
44, 935
45, 934
46, 001
45, 781
55, 926
55, 426
55, 534
55, 984
56,121
55, 693
02, 796
01,976
01, 403
01,221
01,016
00, 310
35, 025
34, 650
34, 259
33, 899
33, 754
33,145
42, 030
41, 622
41, 362
41, 384
41, 412
41,304
25, 867
25, 794
25, 835
25, 939
25,793
25, 747
53,129
53,450
54,131
54, 763
55,105
55, 382
22,105
21, 948
22, 200
22, 663
22, 837
23,023
7,990
8,059
8,152
8,150
8,255
8,234
23,036
23,444
23, 778
23,950
24,014
24,124
94,067
95, 551
17, 786
'8, 519
38, 546
98, 937
47, 289
48,430
50, 382
50,146
50, 558
30, 606
46, 778
47,121
47, 404
48, 374
47, 988
48, 331
56,120
56,458
.57, 560
58,134
59, 488
61,118
99, 980
99, 942
00, 740
01, 033
01, 502
02, 429
33, 551
33, 269
33, 541
33, 416
33,669
33, 927
40, 910
40, 568
40, 745
40, 910
40, 978
41,411
25, 371
25,438
25, 558
25, 855
26, 045
26, 344
56,140
56, 516
56, 820
57,101
57, 986
58, 689
23, 288
23,460
23,666
23, 765
24, 366
24,453
8,391
8,520
8,640
8,677
8,705
8,873
24,461
24, 536
24,512
24,660
24,913
25,364
99, 334
99,448
98,780
17,653
10,458
1, 090
1, 648
30, 060
19, 267
il,365
48, 244
47, 799
48, 720
48,386
49, 093
62,144
63,184
64, 966
:66, 674
66, 915
02,856
03, 282
04,117
05, 589
06,011
34,064
33, 822
34,113
35, 047
35,329
41, 499
41, 743
41,987
42,627
42, 889
26,495
26, 862
27,114
27, 915
27, 793
59, 288
59,902
60, 850
61,085
60, 904
24,900
25,023
25, 502
26,880
27, 354
8,929
9,004
9,096
8,524
8,507
25,460
25,875
26, 250
25,681
25,043
* Monthly average for year and total for month.
s Book value, seasonally adjusted, end of period, except as noted.
MOte.—Data are as published by Bureau of the Census, but beginning 1968 detail for durable goods inventories does
not add to totals. Correction will be published later by Census.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
239
TABLE B-46.'—Manufacturers1 new and unfilled orders, 1947-76
[Amounts in millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted!
New orders'
Durable goods
industries
Year or month
Total
Total
Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense
Unfilled orders»
Nondurable
goods
industries
Total
Unfilled ordersshipments ratio 3
Durable
goods
industries
Nondurable
goods
industries
3.42
4.12
3.63
3.87
3.35
3.07
3.00
4.27
4.55
4.00
3.67
3.53
0.96
1.12
1.04
.85
.86
.94
Total
Durable
goods
industries
Nondurable
goods
industries
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
15,256
17,693
15,614
20,110
23,907
23,204
23,586
22,335
27,465
28,368
27. 559
27, 002
30, 724
6,388
8,126
6,633
10,165
12,841
12,061
12,147
10, 768
14,996
15,365
14,111
13, 290
16, 003
8,868
9,566
8,981
34,473
30,736
24,045
9,945
11,066
11,143
11,439
11,566
12, 469
13,003
13, 448
13,712
14, 720
41,456
67,266
75,857
61,178
48,266
28, 579
26,619
19,622
35,435
63, 394
72,680
58,637
45,250
60,004
67, 375
53,183
47, 280
52, 571
56,241
63, 880
50, 352
44, 465
49, 207
5,894
4,117
4,423
6,021
3,872
3,177
2,541
3,016
3,763
3,495
2,831
2,815
3,364
1960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1984..
30, 235
31,104
33, 436
35, 524
38, 357
15, 303
15,759
17,374
18, 709
20, 652
14,932
15,345
16,061
16,815
17, 705
45,061
47, 384
48, 600
54,384
67, 001
42, 491
44, 345
45,983
51,321
63, 806
2,570
3,039
2,617
3,063
3,195
2.78
2.64
2.68
2.81
3.10
3.36
3.14
3.21
3.38
3.71
.72
.79
.68
.73
.72
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
23, 278
26,177
25,831
28,149
29, 934
18, 823 80,174 76, 395
20, 225 98, 519 94, 689
21, 232 105,114 101,144
22,571 110,537 106, 563
24, 079 116,330 112,158
3,778
3,830
3,970
3,974
4,172
3.34
3.80
3.73
3.85
3.76
3.97
4.54
4.44
4.64
4.50
.76
.73
.69
.69
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
42,100
46, 402
47, 062
50, 720
54,014
52, 096
55,937
64, 246
76,217
86, 988
107, 460
107,656
122,362
161, 766
190, 271
1975..
85,673
1975:Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May_.
June.
80, 760
81,156
78, 966
82,968
83,114
83, 486
July..
Aug._
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.
87,720
88, 205
89, 533
90, 392
90,620
91, 816
1976:Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June-
92, 822
95,044
98, 550
98, 756
99, 379
99, 476
40,156
40.165
38, 590
40, 723
41,156
40, 373
43, 534 11,319
43, 368 10, 915
44,181 11, 070
43, 840 11, H 2
44, 282 11, 369
11,054
45, 985
45, 904 11,663
47, 930 11, 900
51,111 12,173
50, 245 12, 476
51, 354 12, 666
51, 249 12, 607
99, 214
97, 924
98, 869
99,701
100,888
51,180
50, 380
50, 068
51, 078
51, 986
July...
Aug...
Sept...
Oct....
NOVP_.
27, 447
29,951
35,142
42, 888
46, 570
42.164
7,079
7,821
7,053
7,575
8,947
11,169
12,656
24, 649
25, 986
29,104
33,329
40, 418
102,867
102, 623
116, 004
154,361
184, 697
4,593
5,033
6,358
7,404
5,575
3.70
3.39
3.35
3.94
4.23
4.45
4.06
3.96
4.66
5.09
.77
.78
.88
.93
.64
10,899
43, 509 171, 438 163, 582
7,856
3.63
4.40
.78
11,619
10, 593
10,152
10, 750
10, 563
10, 305
40, 604
40, 991
40, 375
42, 245
41, 958
43.113
187, 094
184, 255
180, 656
178,114
176, 846
174, 545
181, 795
179, 097
175, 445
172, 762
171, 350
168, 760
5,299
5,158
5,211
5,351
5,496
5,784
4.17
4.11
4.12
3.99
4.02
3.96
5.04
4.99
4.99
4.84
4.90
4.81
.60
.58
.60
.60
.61
.64
44,186
44, 837
45, 352
46, 552
46, 337
45, 830
174, 441
173, 584
172, 890
172,104
172,175
171,438
168, 332
167,148
166, 037
164,634
164, 368
163, 582
6,108
6,436
6,853
7,470
7,806
7,856
3.89
3.81
3.73
3.70
3.72
3.63
4.73
4.62
4.51
4.47
4.52
4.40
.66
.69
.72
.77
.79
.77
46, 918
47.114
47, 439
48,511
48, 025
48, 227
170,193
169, 686
170, 450
170, 687
171, 520
172,059
162,197
161, 697
162,426
162, 525
163, 322
163, 965
7,996
7,989
8,024
8,162
8,198
8, 094
3.53
3.46
3.37
3.39
3.35
3.38
4.26
4.19
4.06
4.08
4.02
4.06
.79
.77
.77
.77
.78
.77
48, 033
47, 544
48,801
48,624
48,902
171, 938
170, 414
170, 503
172, 553
172, 992
164, 055
162,787
162, 795
164, 607
165, 234
7,883
7,627
7,708
7,946
7,758
3.38
3.31
3.33
3.43
3.37
4.04
3.97
4.02
4.12
4.05
.76
.73
.72
.77
.74
13, 778
12,690
13,468
14, 302
12, 799
1 Monthly average for year and total for month.
2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
3 Ratio of unfilled orders at end of period to shipments for period; excludes industries with no unfilled orders. Annual
figures relate to seasonally adjusted data for December.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
240
PRICES
T A B L E B-47.—Consumer price indexes by expenditure classes,
1929-76
For urban wage earners and clerical workers
[1967 = 100]
Housing
Year or month
All
items
Total
51 3
1929
Apparel Trans-
Food
Rent
and
upkeep
48 3
76.0
Reading
Medical Personal
and
care
care
recreation
Other
goods
and
services
48.5
54.1
portation
36.9
1933
38 8
30 6
1939
41.6
34.6
52.2
56.0
42.4
43.0
36.7
40.3
45.3
46.9
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
42.0
44.1
48.8
51.8
52.7
53.9
58.5
66.9
35.2
38.4
56.2
57.2
58.5
58.5
58.6
58.8
59.2
61.1
6§. 1
68.0
42.8
44.8
52.3
54.6
58.5
61.5
67.5
78.2
83.3
36.8
37.0
38.0
39.9
41.1
42.1
44.4
48.1
46.1
47 7
50 0
80.1
42.7
44.2
48.1
47.9
47.9
47.8
50.3
55.5
61.8
66.4
40.2
50.3
49.6
50.7
58.1
70.6
76.6
73.5
52.4
53.7
56.2
56.8
58.1
59.1
60.6
65.2
69.8
70.9
54.1
60.0
62.4
64.5
68.7
72.2
74.9
48.3
49.2
50.7
53.3
54.7
56.9
58 8
63.8
66.8
68.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
72.1
77.8
79.5
74.5
82.8
84.3
83.0
82.8
81.6
82 2
84.9
88.5
87.1
72.8
77.2
78.7
80.8
81.7
82.3
83.6
86.2
87.7
88.6
70.4
73.2
76.2
80.3
83.2
84.3
85 9
87.5
89.1
90.4
79.0
86.1
85.3
84.6
84.5
84.1
85.8
87.3
87.5
88.2
68.2
72.5
77.3
79.5
78.3
11A
78.8
83.3
86.0
89.6
53.7
56.3
59.3
61.4
63.4
64.8
67.2
69.9
73.2
76.4
68.3
74.7
75.6
76.3
76.6
77.9
81.1
84.1
86.9
88.7
74 4
76.6
76.9
77.7
76.9
76.7
77.8
80.7
83.9
85.3
69.9
72.8
76.6
78.5
79.8
79.8
81 0
83.3
84.4
86 1
88.0
89. i
89.9
91.2
92.4
94.4
91.7
92.9
94.0
95.0
95.9
96.9
98.2
100 0
102.4
105.7
89.6
90.4
90.9
91.9
92.7
93.7
96.1
100.0
105.4
89.6
90.6
92.5
93.0
94.3
95.9
97.2
100.0
103.2
107.2
79.1
81.4
83.5
85.6
87.3
89.5
93.4
100.0
106.1
113.4
90.1
90.6
92.2
93.4
94.5
95 2
97.1
100.0
104.2
109.3
87.3
89.3
91.3
92.8
95.0
95.9
97.5
100.0
104.7
108.7
87 8
88.5
89.1
90 6
92.0
94 2
97.2
100.0
104.6
109.1
110.1
72.1
71.4
80.1
80.5
80.2
81.4
84.3
86.6
87.3
. .
45.1
51.1
52.7
41.2
45.2
49.9
53.4
55.1
59.0
66.0
68.5
68.3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
88.7
89.6
90.6
91.7
92.9
94.5
97.2
100.0
104.2
109.8
100.0
103.6
108.9
90.2
90.9
91.7
92.7
93.8
94.9
97.2
100.0
104.2
110.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
116.3
121.3
125 3
133.1
147.7
161.2
114.9
118.4
123.5
141.4
161.7
175.4
118.9
124.3
129.2
135.0
150.6
166.8
115.2
119.2
124.3
130.6
137.3
119.8
122.3
126.8
136.2
142.3
116.1
112.7
118.6
119.9
123.8
137.7
150.6
120.6
128.4
132.5
137.7
150.5
168.6
113.2
116.8
119.8
125.2
137.3
150.7
113.4
119.3
122.8
125.9
133.8
144.4
116.0
120.9
125.5
129.0
137 2
147.4
156.1
157.2
157.8
158.6
159.3
160.6
170.9
171.6
171.3
171.2
171.8
174.4
161.3
162.8
163.6
164.7
165.3
166.4
134.5
135.1
135.5
135.9
136.4
136.9
139.4
140.2
140.9
141.3
141.8
141.4
143.2
143.5
144.8
146 2
147.4
149.8
161.0
163.0
164.6
165.8
166.8
168.1
146.5
147.8
148.9
149.5
149.9
150.3
141.0
141.8
142.0
143.5
143.8
144.1
144.8
145.9
146.5
146 8
147.1
147 3
162.3
162.8
163 6
164.6
165.6
166.3
178.6
178.1
177.8
179.0
179.8
180.7
167.1
167.7
168.9
169.8
171.3
172.2
137.3
138.0
138.4
139.3
139.9
140.6
141.1
142.3
143.5
144.6
145.5
145.2
152.6
153.6
169.8
170.9
172.2
173.5
173.3
174.7
151.2
151.4
152.1
152.9
153.6
154.6
144.4
144.7
146.0
146.6
147.0
147.5
147.6
148.1
148 0
148.5
148.9
149.8
166.7
167.1
167.5
168.2
169.2
170.1
180.8
180.0
178.7
179.2
180.0
180.9
173.2
173.8
174.5
174.9
175.6
176.5
141.2
142.1
142.7
143.2
143.8
144.4
143.3
144 0
145.0
145.7
146.8
146.9
158.1
158 5
159.8
161.3
163.5
165.9
176.6
178 8
180.6
181.6
182.6
183.7
155.7
157 0
157.4
158.3
158.9
148.2
148.5
149.0
149.5
150.3
150.9
150.5
151.3
151.8
152.5
152.9
153.2
171.1
171.9
172.6
173.3
173.8
182.1
182.4
18L6
181 6
177.5
178.4
179.5
180 1
180.7
145.0
145.6
146.2
146 9
147.5
146 5
167 6
168.5
169.5
170 9
171.4
185.5
186.8
187.9
188 9
191.3
160 5
161.6
.162.8
163 9
151.2
151.4
152.8
153.5
154.1
153.6
153.8
153.9
154.4
155.3
.
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar..
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1976: J a n . . .
_
Feb
Mar.
Apr__
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
_
99.1
181.1
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
241
111.5
148.1
150.2
150 9
151.9
155 4
156.1
157.4
157.6
159.8
164.8
TABLE B-48.—Consumer price indexes by commodity and service groups, 1939-76
For urban wage earners and clerical workers
(1967=1001
Commodities
Year or
month
All
items
Services
Special indexes
Commodities less food
All
commodities
Food
All
Durable
All
Non- services Rent
durable
Services
less
rent
All
items
less
food
All
items
less
shelter
Nondurable
commodities
1939
41.6
40.2
34.6
47.7
48.5
44.3
43.5
56.0
38.1
47.2
39.7
38.4
1940 .
1941
1942
1943 . . .
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
42.0
44.1
48.8
51.8
52.7
53.9
58 5
66.9
72.1
71.4
40.6
43.3
49.6
54.0
54.7
56.3
62.4
75.0
80.4
78.3
35.2
38.4
45.1
50.3
49.6
50.7
58.1
70.6
76.6
73.5
48.0
50.4
56.0
58.4
61.6
64.1
68.1
76.8
82.7
81.5
48.1
51.4
58.4
60.3
65.9
70.9
74 1
80.3
86.2
87.4
44.7
46.7
51.6
53.8
56.6
58.6
62.9
72.2
77.8
76.3
43.6
44.2
45.6
46.4
47.5
48.2
49 1
51.1
54.3
56.9
56.2
57.2
58.5
58.5
58.6
58.8
59 2
61.1
65.1
68.0
38.1
38.6
40.3
42.1
44.2
45.1
46 7
49 0
51.9
54.5
47.3
48.7
52.1
53.6
55.7
56.9
59 4
64 9
69.6
70.3
39.9
42.4
47.7
51.3
52.2
53.6
59 0
68 5
73.9
72.6
38.9
41.6
47.6
51.8
52.2
53.7
59.6
71.9
77.2
74.9
1950 . . . .
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955 .
..
1956
1957
1958
1959
72.1
77.8
79.5
80.1
80.5
80.2
81.4
84.3
86 6
87.3
78.8
85 9
87.0
86.7
85.9
85.1
85.9
88.6
90 6
90.7
74.5
82.8
84.3
83.0
82.8
81.6
82.2
84.9
88.5
87.1
81.4
87.5
88.3
88.5
87.5
86.9
87.8
90.5
91.5
92.7
88.4
95.1
96.4
95.7
93.3
91.5
91.5
94.4
95 9
97.3
76.2
82.0
82.4
83.1
83.5
83.5
85.3
87.6
88.2
89.3
58.7
61.8
64.5
67.3
69.5
70.9
72.7
75.6
78.5
80.8
70.4
73.2
76.2
80.3
83.2
84.3
85.9
87.5
89.1
90.4
56.0
59 3
62.2
64.8
66.7
68.2
70 1
73.3
76 4
79.0
71.1
75 7
77.5
79.0
79.5
79.7
81 1
83.8
85 7
87.3
73.1
79 2
80.8
81.0
81.0
80.6
81 7
84.4
86 9
87.6
75.4
82.5
83.4
83.2
83.2
82.5
83.7
86.3
88.6
88.2
96 7 90 7 83 5 91 7 81 9
92.9
91.2
85.2
96.6
83.9
94.0
97 6 91.8
86.8
85 5
95.0
92.7
88.5
97.9
87.3
95.9
93.5
90.2
98.8
89.2
96.9
94.8
92.2
98.4
91.5
98.2
97.0
95.8
98.5
95.3
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
103.1 104.1 105.2 102.4 105.7
107 0 108.8 112.5 105.7 113 8
88 8 88 9
89.7
89.9
90.8
90 9
92.1
92.0
93.2
93.2
94.6
94.5
97.4
96.7
100.0 100.0
104.4 104.1
110.1 109.0
89.4
90.2
90 9
92.0
93.0
94.6
98.1
100.0
103.9
108.9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
88 7
89.6
90.6
91.7
92.9
94.5
97.2
100.0
104.2
109.8
91 5 88 0 93 1
89.1
93.4
92.0
94.1
89.9
92.8
91.2
94.8
93.6
92.4
95.6
94.6
94.4
96.2
95.7
99.1
97.5
98.2
100.0 100.0 100.0
103.7 103.6 103.7
108.4 108.9 108.1
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
116.3
121.3
125.3
133.1
147.7
161.2
113.5
117.4
120.9
129.9
145.5
158.4
114.9
118.4
123.5
141.4
161.7
175.4
112.5
116.8
119.4
123.5
136.6
149.1
111.8
116.5
118.9
121.9
130.6
145.5
113.1
117.0
119.8
124.8
140.9
151.7
121.6
128.4
133.3
139.1
152.1
166.6
110 1
115.2
119.2
124.3
130.6
137.3
123 7
130.8
135.9
141.8
156.0
171.9
116.7
122.1
125.8
130.7
143.7
157.1
114.4
119.3
122.9
131.1
146.1
159.1
114.0
117.7
121.7
132.8
151.0
163.2
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar .
Apr
May....
June
156.1
157.2
157.8
158.6
159.3
160.6
153.4
154.4
155.0
155.7
156.5
157.9
170.9
171.6
171.3
171.2
171.8
174.4
143.9
144.9
146.0
147.2
148.1
148.9
139.3
140.3
142.1
143.6
144.8
145.8
147.2
148.2
148.8
149.8
150.5
151.2
161.3
162.6
163.2
164.1
164.5
165.7
134.5
135.1
135.5
135.9
136.4
136.9
166.2
167.5
168.3
169.2
169.6
170.9
151.9
153.0
153.9
154.9
155.6
156.6
154.1
155.0
155.6
156.3
157.0
158.4
158.7
159.6
159.7
160.1
160.8
162.4
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
162.3
162.8
163.6
164.6
165.6
166.3
160.1
160.4
160.8
161.7
162.2
162.7
178.6
178.1
177.8
179.0
179.8
180.7
149.9
150.7
151.4
152.2
152.6
152.8
146.9 152.2 166.6
147.5 153.0 167.4
148.2 153.8 169.1
148 9 154 6 170 1
149.2 155.1 172.0
149.3 155.4 173.1
137.3
138.0
138.4
139.3
139.9
140.6
171.9
172.7
174.6
175.7
177.7
179.0
157.6
158.3
159.5
160.4
161.5
162.1
160.3
160.8
161.6
162.6
163.4
164.1
165.0
165.2
165.4
166.4
167.1
167.6
1976: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May . . . .
June
166.7
167.1
167.5
168.2
169.2
170.1
162.4
162.3
162.3
163.1
164.2
165.2
180.8
180.0
178.7
179.2
180.0
180.9
152.3
152.7
153.3
154.2
155.5
156.5
149.0
149.3
150.4
151.9
153.5
154.7
154.7
155.2
155.5
156.0
157.0
157.9
174.9
176.1
177.2
177.7
178.4
179.5
141.2
142.1
142.7
143.2
143.8
144.4
181.0
182.2
183.4
184.0
184.7
185.8
162.6
163.4
164.2
165.0
166.0
167.0
164.4
164.9
165.3
166.1
167.1
168.1
167.3
167.2
166.7
167.2
168.2
169.0
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
171.1
171.9
172.6
173.3
173.8
166.0
166.6
167.0
167.4
167.7
182.1
182.4
181.6
181.6
181.1
157.1
158.0
158.9
159.6
160.3
155.8
156.4
156.9
157.8
158.0
158.1
159.1
160.4
161.0
161.9
180.7
181.8
183.2
184.1
185.1
145.0
145.6
146.2
146.9
147.5
187.2
188.4
189.8
190.8
191.8
167.9
168.9
170.0
170.8
171.6
169.0
169.7
170.4
171.0
171.6
169.7
170.4
170.7
171.0
171.3
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
242
TABLE B-49.—Consumer price indexes, selected commodities and services, 1939-76
For urban wage earners and clerical workers
[1967=100]
Nondurable commodities less food
Durable commodities
Year or month
Total i
New
cars
Used
cars
Household
durables
Total
Apparel
commodities
Services less rent
Nondurables
less
Total
food
and
apparel
House- Transhold
serv- portation
ices
servless
ices
rent
Medical
care
services
Other 3
48.5
43.2
56.6
44.3
43.0
46.3
38.1
36.1
32.5
1940
1941...
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947 . .
1948
1949
48.1
51.4
58.4
60.3
65.9
70.9
74.1
80.3
86.2
87.4
43.3
46.6
55.9
59.8
66.9
69.5
76.0
81.8
86.5
95.6
101.7
99.0
44.7
46.7
51.6
53.8
56.6
58.6
62.9
72.2
77.8
76.3
43.5
45.8
53.5
55.9
59.8
63.0
69.5
80.4
85.4
82.0
46.8
48.4
51.1
53.2
54.7
55.8
58.2
66.2
72.3
72.4
38.1
38.6
40.3
42.1
44.2
45.1
46.7
49.0
51.9
54.5
36.1
36.3
38.2
38.2
38.2
38.2
39.0
40.3
44.9
50.0
32.5
32.7
33 7
35.4
36.9
37.9
40.1
43.5
46.4
48.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
88.4
95.1
96.4
95.7
93.3
91.5
91.5
94.4
95.9
97.3
83.4
87.4
94.9
95.8 "89." 2
75.9
94.3
71.8
90.9
93.5
69.1
77.4
98.4
80.2
101.5
89.5
105.9
100.2
109.8
106.9
105.7
102.9
100.1
99.7
101.4
102.1
102.0
76.2
82 0
82.4
83.1
83.5
83.5
85.3
87.6
88.2
89.3
81.1
88.7
87.7
86.7
86.3
85.8
87.3
88.2
88.2
89.0
72.9
77 5
79.0
81.0
81.8
82.1
84.1
87.4
88.3
89.6
56.0
59.3
62.2
64.8
66.7
68.2
70.1
73.3
76.4
79.0
75.4
79.4
81.6
53.3
58.3
62.4
66.4
69.2
69.4
70.5
73.8
78.5
81.2
49.2
51.7
55.0
57.0
58.7
60.4
62.8
65.5
68.7
72.0
7l7l
73.9
76.2
78.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965 .
1966
1967
1968
1969
96.7
96.6
97.6
97.9
98.8
98.4
98.5
100.0
103.1
107.0
104.5
104.5
104.1
103.5
103.2
100.9
99.1
100.0
102.8
104.4
83.6
86.9
94.8
96.0
100.1
99.4
97.0
100.0
103 1
101.9
100.7
100.6
100.3
100.2
98.7
98.6
100.0
103.3
107.4
90.7
91.2
91.8
92.7
93 5
94.8
97.0
100.0
104.1
108.8
90.3
90.8
91.2
92.0
92.8
93.6
96.0
100.0
105 6
111.9
90.9
91.3
92.1
93.1
93 9
95.5
97.5
100.0
103 3
107.0
81.9
83.9
85.5
87.3
89.2
91.5
95.3
100.0
105.7
113.8
85.0
86.0
87.1
89.0
90.4
92.1
95.7
100.0
105.9
115.3
83.3
85.3
86.6
87.5
89.6
92.9
96.8
100.0
104.0
111.3
74.9
77.7
80.2
82.6
84.6
87.3
92.0
100.0
107.3
116.0
80.8
83.4
85.6
87.7
90.1
92.6
96.2
100.0
105.6
110.6
1970
1971..
1972
1973
1974
1975
111.8
116.5
118.9
121.9
130.6
145.5
107.6
112.0
111.0
111.1
117.5
127.6
104.3
110.2
110.5
117.6
122.6
146.4
110.2
112.9
115.0
118.8
128.9
140.3
113.1
117.0
119.8
124.8
140.9
151.7
116.5
120.1
122.7
127.1
136.1
141.2
111.2
115.2
118.2
123.4
143.8
157.9
123.7
130.8
135.9
141.8
156.0
171.9
126.8
132.6
139.2
146.8
166.0
184.7
123.1
133.0
136.0
136.9
141.9
152.7
124.2
133.3
138.2
144.3
159.1
179.1
116.7
122.5
125.8
131.6
141.6
152.1
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
139.3
140.3
142.1
143.6
144.8
145.8
123.4
124.5
127.3
127.5
126.8
127.0
134.9
133.5
135.3
138.1
142.2
147.5
136.8
137.3
138.3
139.4
140.0
140.3
147.2
148.2
148.8
149.8
150 5
151.2
138.6
139.2
139.9
140.3
140.8
140.3
152.3
153.6
154.2
155.4
156.3
157.7
166.2
167.5
168.3
169.2
169.6
170.9
179.0
180.4
180.8
181.7
182.1
183.9
146.5
147.2
148.3
149.5
149.6
150.4
170.7
172.9
174.7
175.9
177.0
178.4
148.8
149.7
150.1
150.6
151.0
151.4
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
146.9
147.5
148.2
148.9
149.2
149.3
126.6
126.8
126.5
129.9
131.3
134.0
153.2
156.1
156.6
156.5
153.7
149.6
140 6
141.0
141.7
142.3
142.9
143.0
152 2
153.0
153.8
154.6
155.1
155.4
139 8
141.1
142.3
143.5
144.4
143.9
159 5
160.1
160.7
161.3
161.5
162.2
171.9
172.7
174.6
175.7
177.7
179.0
184.8
185.6
187.0
188.2
190.7
192.0
151.1
151.9
156.1
157.0
161.7
163.2
180.4
181.7
183.2
184.6
184.2
185.8
152.0
152.4
153.8
154.4
155.2
155.7
1976:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
149.0
149.3
150.4
151.9
153.5
154.7
134.2
134.3
134.5
134.4
134.5
134.5
144.6
144.9
150.9
159.4
167.8
173.4
143.3
144.0
144.8
145.5
145.8
146.1
154.7
155.2
155.5
156.0
157.0
157.9
141.5
142.2
143.1
143.9
145.1
145.0
162.6
162.9
162.8
163.2
164.2
165.6
181.0
182.2
183.4
184.0
184.7
185.8
193.7
194.4
195.1
195.4
196.1
197.3
167.0
168.9
171.1
171.7
172.3
173.2
188.0
190.4
192.5
193.5
194.6
195.8
156.6
157.4
158.4
159.1
159.7
160.5
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
155.8
156.4
156.9
157.8
158.0
134.4
134.4
134.2
139.1
139.7
177.5
179.6
180.1
179.9
179.0
146.5
146.3
146.7
147.2
147.8
158.1
159.1
160.4
161.0
161.9
144.4
146.2
148.5
149.2
150.1
166.3
166.8
167.4
168.1
169.0
187.2
188.4
189.8
190.8
191.8
198.7
200.1
201.5
202.3
202.6
174.7
175.5
177.3
178.9
180.2
197.9
199.4
200.6
201.7
204.5
161.2
162.0
163.6
164.3
165.2
1939...
.
69.2
75.6
82.8
(i)
1
1
"iV.i
Also includes the "other durables" group.
Includes the services components of apparel, personal care, reading and recreation, and other goods and services.
»Not available.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
243
TABLE B—50.—Consumer price indexes, for commoditity groups, seasonally adjusted, 1973—76
For urban wage earners and clerical workers
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Commodities less food
Year and
month
All
commodities
Durable commodities
Nondurabies less food
Food
Total
Total l
Household
durables
New
cars
Used
cars
Total l
Apparel Gasocom- line and
modmotor
ities
oil
Fuel
oil
and
coal
1973:Jan.__
Feb...
Mar „
Apr...
May..
June..
123.8
124.8
126.1
127.3
128.3
129.1
129.0
130.8
134.0
136.3
138.3
139.7
121.0
121.5
121.9
122.5
122.9
123.3
120.2
120.7
121.0
121.4
121.7
121.8
116.4
116.7
117.1
117.7
118.4
118.9
109.8
110.2
110.4
110.9
111.1
111.0
116.4
118.8
119.6
120.8
120.3
119.5
121.5
122.0
122.5
123.3
123.7
124.4
124.5
124.8
125.5
126.3
126.7
127.2
112.2
112.8
112.9
114.4
115.2
117.8
118.8
124.4
125.4
126.6
128.4
131.8
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
129.3
132.5
132.6
133.3
134.6
135.8
140.0
148.6
148.2
148.9
150.8
152.1
123.5
123.9
124.1
124.9
125.9
127.0
121.8
122.3
122.4
122.6
122.8
123.1
119.2
119.4
119.8
120.2
120.6
121.1
111.2
111.7
111.6
111.5
111.5
111.4
118.8
118.0
116.7
114.7
113.5
112.4
124.7
125.0
125.3
126.6
128.1
129.7
127.2
127.8
128.1
128.6
128. 9
129.4
118.2
118.7
118.2
123.1
128.5
134.0
133.1
135. 6
137.1
144.0
156.5
172.3
1974:Jan___
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May..
June-
137.6
139.5
141.0
141.7
143.3
144.4
154.2
157.2
158.4
158.4
160.1
160.3
128.6
129.9
131.6
132.7
134.3
135.9
123.7
124.3
125.1
126.1
127.6
129.3
122.2
123.1
124.1
125.2
126.4
127.9
111.8
112.1
112.5
113.2
114.7
116.4
110.8
109.3
108.0
110.7
114.6
119.5
132.0
134.0
136.2
137.5
139.1
140.6
130.2
131.5
132.6
133.7
134.6
135.6
140.7
147.7
157.2
159.2
162.2
162.9
191.2
197.0
197.4
203.6
209.4
214.6
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct.Nov...
Dec...
145.2
147.4
149.2
150.5
151.9
153.1
159.8
162.2
165.2
166.8
168.7
170.4
137.4
139.3
140.6
141.7
142.9
143.8
130.8
132.7
134.4
136.0
137.4
138.7
129.2
131.3
132.6
133.8
135.2
136.1
118.3
119.0
120.8
123.3
123.7
124.2
123.7
128.0
131.1
134.4
138.2
138.2
142.0
144.1
145.1
145.8
146.8
147.4
136.2
139.2
139.1
139.4
140.2
140.3
164.2
164.1
164.0
161.8
161.4
161.7
221.1
226.3
229.2
230.6
230.6
227.8
1975: Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June..
154.0
154.6
155.0
155.6
156.5
157.6
171.3
171.1
170.6
171.0
172.5
174.6
144.7
145.7
146.6
147.4
147.9
148.5
140.0
141.6
143.2
144.4
144.8
145.4
137.3
138.0
138.7
139.6
139.9
140.0
122.4
124.0
127.0
127.4
127.0
127.1
139.9
142.0
143.3
143.3
142.7
144.3
148.1
148.7
148.9
149.5
150.0
150.7
140.5
140.5
140.5
140.4
140.4
140.3
161.0
160.6
160.2
160.9
162.8
166.6
224.5
223.3
223.4
225.6
228.4
231.1
July_.
Aug_.
Sept..
Oct—
Nov..
Dec.
159.6
160.1
160.6
161.5
162.2
162.9
177.8
177.5
178.0
179.6
180.6
181.6
149.8
150.7
151.2
151.7
152.2
152.8
146.2
147.0
147.6
148.1
148.5
149.2
140.3
140.8
141.3
142.1
142.7
143.2
126.9
127.7
129.0
129.5
130.5
133.4
148.0
151.2
150.8
150.7
150.1
149.4
152.4
153.4
153.7
154.4
154.8
155.3
141.2
142.3
141.6
141.9
142.4
142.7
173.9
176.3
177.9
179.4
179.4
179.1
237.0
241.8
246.2
249.1
248.1
247.5
1976: Jan—
Feb_.
Mar__
Apr..
May..
June..
163.1
162.7
162.4
163.1
164.3
164.9
181.2
179.4
177.9
178.9
180.6
181.0
153.1
153.5
153.9
154.4
155.3
156.0
149.7
150.6
151.7
152.7
153.6
154.1
143.7
144.7
145.2
145.6
145.7
145.8
133.1
133.8
134.2
134.3
134.8
134.6
150.0
154.1
159.9
165.4
168.5
169.7
155.6
155.7
155.6
155.7
156.6
157.4
143.3
143.6
143.6
143.9
144.6
145.0
176.2
173.6
170.6
169.0
170.5
174.0
244.0
242.6
242.3
243.0
244.2
247.8
July__
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.Nov.
165.6
166.4
166.8
167.3
167.6
181.2
181.8
181.8
182.3
181.9
156.9
157.9
158.5
159.1
15J.8
155.0
155.7
156.3
156.8
157.4
146.2
146.0
146.3
146.9
147.7
134.7
135.3
136.8
138.7
138.9
171.5
173.9
173.5
173.3
174.8
158.4
159.6
160.2
160.8
161.6
145.8
147.4
147.7
147.5
147.9
176.6
179.2
180.4
182.7
184.0
251.1
255.7
258.6
259.1
259.6
1
Includes certain groups not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
244
TABLE B-51.—Consumer price indexes for service groups and selected expenditure classes,
seasonally adjusted, 1973-76
For urban wage earners and clerical workers
[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Selected expenditure classes
Services
Services less rent
Year
and month
All
AM
services
Rent
Total i
Household
services
less rent
Transportation
services
Medical
care
services
Fuel
and
utilities
Household
furnishings
and
operation
Apparel
and
upkeep
Transportation
Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June..
135.4
136.0
136.6
137.1
137.8
138.3
121.6
122.1
122.6
123.1
123.7
124.0
137.9
138.4
139.1
139.6
140.3
140.9
141.8
142.5
143.3
144.0
144.7
145.5
135.5
135.8
136.1
136.2
136.6
136.9
141.2
141.5
142.0
142.6
143.1
143.5
122.3
123.1
123.6
124.2
124.9
125.6
122.6
123.0
123.2
123.6
123.7
124.5
124.2
124.3
125.1
125.8
126.3
126.7
121.2
121.9
122.1
122.9
123.2
123.7
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
138.6
139.4
140.6
142.1
142.8
143.6
124.5
125.0
125.5
125.9
126.4
126.9
141.1
141.9
143.3
145.0
145.7
146.5
145.7
147.0
149.2
151.4
152.5
153.6
136.9
137.2
137.4
137.6
137.6
138.1
143.8
144.0
144.9
147.8
148.3
148.9
126.1
127.1
127.8
129.8
132.5
136.0
124.9
125.2
125.8
126.4
127.2
128.0
126.9
127.5
127.8
128.4
128.9
129.4
123.9
123.9
124.1
124.8
125.8
127.1
1974: J a n . . .
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June..
144.7
145.8
147.1
148.2
149.8
151.2
127.6
128.3
128.6
129.1
129.6
130.2
147.7
148.9
150.4
151.6
153.3
154.9
155.3
156.9
159.0
160.6
162.8
164.7
138.5
139.0
139.5
140.0
140.6
141.4
150.0
151.2
152.6
153.7
155.6
158.0
140.2
142.2
143.8
145.8
148.0
149.4
129.6
130.7
132.9
134.0
136.8
139.0
130.3
131.3
132.6
133.7
134.6
135.7
128.5
130.5
132.8
134.1
136.1
137.8
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
152.8
154.3
155.8
157.2
158.4
159.7
130.7
131.2
131.9
132.5
133.2
133.7
156.7
158.4
160.1
161.5
162.8
164.3
167.0
169.2
171.3
173.4
174.8
176.6
142.3
142.7
143.5
144.2
145.1
145.9
160.1
162.5
164.2
165.5
167.1
168.7
151.5
153.6
155.4
156.8
157.6
158.5
141.3
143.9
146.2
148.6
150.6
152.3
136.4
139.2
139.3
139.7
140.5
140.7
139.4
140.5
142.3
142.6
143.4
144.0
1975: J a n . . .
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May..
June..
161.1
162.4
163.3
164.3
164.9
166.0
134.4
135.0
135.4
135.8
136.4
136.9
165.9
167.3
168.3
169.4
170.0
171.2
178.5
180.1
181.0
182.3
182.9
184.7
146.3
147.2
148.3
149.4
149.8
150.3
171.0
173.0
174.5
176.0
177.3
178.4
159.8
160.7
161.7
163.3
164.7
166.9
153.9
155.5
156.0
156.9
157.2
157.9
141.0
141.2
141.4
141.4
141.5
141.4
143.7
144.9
145.7
146.6
147.1
148.6
July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
166.9
167.6
169.0
170.0
171.7
172.8
137.5
138.1
138.5
139.4
140.1
140.7
172.1
172.9
174.4
175.4
177.3
178.5
185.4
186.0
186.9
187.8
189.8
191.1
151.1
151.9
156.2
157.2
162.0
163.1
180.3
181.4
182.9
184.6
184.3
186.1
168.8
170.1
172.5
173.8
175.1
176.3
158.2
158.8
159.7
160.5
161.2
162.0
142.3
143.4
142.8
143.2
143.6
144.1
151.2
152.7
155.5
155.9
157.4
158.3
1976: J a n . . .
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May..
June..
174.7
176.0
177.2
178.0
178.8
179.9
141.1
142.0
142.6
143.1
143.8
144.4
180.7
182.1
183.5
184.3
185.1
186.3
193.1
194.2
195.3
196.0
196.9
198.3
166.7
168.9
171.1
171.5
172.5
173.2
188.4
190.4
192.3
193.7
194.8
195.8
175.6
176.1
177.5
177.9
179.3
181.7
164.4
166.0
167.1
167.4
167.7
168.2
145.0
145.0
145.4
145.8
146.5
146.9
158.7
160.1
160.8
161.8
163.2
164.6
July..
Aug...
181.0
182.0
183.0
184.0
184.7
145.1
145.6
146.3
147.0
147.6
187.5
188.5
189.6
190.7
191.4
199.3
200.5
201.3
201.9
201.6
174.7
175.5
177.5
179.1
180.6
197.9
199.0
200.2
201.7
204.7
183.4
185.0
186.8
188.6
189.0
168.9
169.1
169.7
170.4
171.2
147.8
149.1
149.5
149.4
150.0
166.1
167.5
169.7
170.7
171.4
1973:
IT::.
Nov...
1
Also includes the "other services" group.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
245
TABLE B-52.—Percent changes in consumer price indexes> major groups', 1948-76
[Percent change]
Dec.
to
Dec*
Commodities less
food
Food
All items
Year or month
Year
to
year
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec*
Dec.
to
Dec*
Year
to
year
Services
Dec.
to
Dec. i
Year
to
year
1948
1949
2.7
—1.8
7.8
-1.0
-0.8
-3.7
8.5
-4.0
5.3
-4.8
7.7
-1.5
6.1
3 6
6.3
4 8
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
5.8
5.9
.9
.6
-.5
1.0
7.9
2.2
.8
.5
9.6
7.4
-1.1
-1.3
-1.6
1.4
11.1
1.8
-1.5
2
5.7
4.6
-.1
7.5
.9
.2
-1.1
3.6
5.2
4.6
4.2
1.9
3.2
5 3
4.4
4 3
3.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.4
2.9
3.0
1.8
1.5
-.4
1.5
3.6
2.7
.8
-.9
3.1
2.8
2.2
-.8
-1.4
3.3
4.2
-1.6
2.2
.8
1.5
1
1.0
3.1
1.1
1.3
2.3
3.1
4.5
2.7
3.7
2.0
2 5
4 0
3.8
2 9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1.5
.7
1.2
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.0
3.1
-.9
1.5
1.9
1.4
1.0
1.3
.9
1.4
1.3
-.3
.6
.4
.3
1.2
.4
.7
.8
2.7
1.9
1.7
2.3
1.8
3 3
2.0
1.9
2.0
1.9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1.9
3.4
3.0
4.7
6.1
1.7
2.9
2.9
4.2
5.4
3.4
3.9
1.2
4.3
7.2
2.2
5.0
.9
3.6
5.1
.7
1.9
3.1
3.7
4.5
.6
1.4
2.6
3.7
4.2
2.6
4.9
4.0
6.1
7.4
2.2
3.9
4 4
5.2
6.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
5.5
3.4
3.4
8.8
12.2
5.9
4.3
3.3
6.2
11.0
2.2
4.3
4.7
20.1
12.2
5.5
3.0
4.3
14.5
14.4
4.8
2.3
2.5
5.0
13.2
4.1
3.8
2.2
3.4
10.6
8.2
4.1
3.6
6.2
11.3
8.1
5.6
3.8
4.4
9.3
1975
7.0
9.1
6.5
8.5
6.2
9.2
8.1
9.5
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
0.7
.8
.4
.6
.2
.7
0.9
.8
.6
.6
1.2
.2
-1.4
0
2 5
.7
Change from preceding month
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
0.7
.5
.4
.5
.5
.7
0.7
.4
-.2
-.1
.4
1.5
0.5
-.1
-.3
.2
.9
1.2
0
.7
.6
.5
0.6
.7
.6
.5
.3
.4
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1.1
.3
.5
.6
.6
.4
1.0
.4
.4
.6
.6
.5
2.4
-.3
2
1.8
-.2
.4
.5
.9
.6
.6
.7
.5
.5
.5
.3
.1
.9
.6
.3
.3
.3
.4
.5
.5
1.0
.6
1.1
.6
.5
.4
.8
.6
1.0
.6
1976- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
.2
.2
.2
.4
.6
.5
4
.1
.2
.4
.6
.5
.1
-.4
-.7
.3
.4
.5
-.2
-1.0
-.8
.6
1.0
.2
-.3
.3
.2
1.0
.6
.8
.6
.3
.3
.6
.5
.6
.3
.4
.6
1.1
.7
.7
.5
.4
.6
.6
.5
.4
.4
.3
.5
.5
.4
.3
.3
.7
.2
-.4
0
-.3
.1
.3
0
.3
-.2
.4
.6
.6
.4
.4
.6
.6
.4
.4
.4
.7
.6
.8
.5
.5
.6
.6
.5
.5
.4
July
Aug
Sept. .
Oct
Nov
1
__
_ _
.
_
Changes from December to December are based on unadjusted indexes.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
246
oooo
0.5
.7
.4
.5
.4
.8
1975: Jan.
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
\l
TABLE B-53.—Wholesale price indexes by major commodity groups, 1929-76
[1967=100]
Farm products and processed
foods and feeds
All commodities
Year or month
Total
Farm
products
Processed
foods
and
feeds
Industrial commodities
Total
Textile
products
and
apparel
Hides,
Fuels
skins,
and
leather,
related Chemicals
and
products, and allied
productsi
related
and
products power1
1929
49.1
64.1
48.6
48.9
1933
34.0
31.4
37.8
36.3
47.6
47.4
1939
39 8
40.0
43.3
42.8
52.3
51.5
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
40 5
45.1
50 9
53 3
53.6
54 6
62 3
76.5
82.8
78.7
94.3
101.5
89.6
41.4
50.3
64 8
75 0
75.5
78 5
90.9
109.4
117.5
101.6
82.9
88.7
80.6
44.0
47.3
50.7
51.5
52.3
53 0
58.0
70.8
76.9
75.3
103.6
108.1
98.9
45.2
48.4
52.8
52.7
52.2
52.9
61.1
83.3
84.2
79.9
51.4
54.6
56.2
57.8
59.5
60.1
64.4
76.9
90.5
86.2
52 4
57.0
63.3
64 1
64.8
65.2
70 5
93.7
95.9
87.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959- .
81.8
91.1
88.6
87.4
87.6
87.8
90.7
93.3
94.6
94.8
93.9
106 9
102.7
96.0
95.7
91.2
90.6
93.7
98.1
93.5
106.7
124.2
117.2
106.2
104.7
98.2
96.9
99.5
103.9
97.5
83.4
92.7
91.6
87.4
88.9
85.0
84.9
87.4
91.8
89.4
78.0
86.1
84.1
84.8
85.0
86.9
90.8
93.3
93.6
95.3
102.7
114.6
103.4
100.8
98.6
98.7
98.7
98.8
97.0
98.4
86.3
99.1
80.1
81.3
77.6
77.3
81.9
82.0
82.9
94.2
87.1
90.3
90.1
92.6
91.3
91.2
94.0
99.1
95.3
95.3
88.9
101.7
96.5
97.7
98.9
98.5
99.1
101.2
102.0
101.6
94.9
94 5
94.8
94.5
94.7
96.6
99 8
100.0
102.5
106.5
93.7
93.7
94.7
93.8
93.2
97.1
103.5
100.0
102.4
108.0
97.2
96.3
98.0
96.0
94.6
98.7
105.9
100.0
102.5
109.1
89.5
91.0
91.9
92.5
92.3
95.5
101.2
100.0
102.2
107.3
95.3
94.8
94.8
94.7
95.2
96.4
98.5
100.0
102.5
106.0
99.5
97.7
98.6
98.5
99.2
99.8
100.1
100.0
103.7
106.0
90.8
91.7
92.7
90.0
90.3
94.3
103.4
100.0
103.2
108.9
96.1
97.2
96.7
96.3
93.7
95.5
97.8
100.0
98.9
100.9
101.8
100.7
99.1
97.9
98.3
99.0
99.4
100.0
99.8
99.9
110 4
114 0
119.1
134 7
160.1
174.9
182.9
111.7
113.9
122.4
159.1
177.4
184.2
183.1
111.0
112.9
125.0
176.3
187.7
186.7
191.1
112 1
114.5
120.8
148.1
170.9
182.6
178.0
110.0
114.1
117.9
125.9
153.8
171.5
182.3
107.1
109.0
113.6
123.8
139.1
137.9
148.0
110.3
114.1
131.3
143.1
145.1
148.5
167.4
106.2
115.2
118.6
134.3
208. 3
245.1
265.5
102.2
104.1
104.2
110.0
146.8
181.3
187.0
171.8
171.3
170.4
172.1
173.2
173.7
183.8
179.5
174.9
178.8
181.2
182.3
179.7
174.6
171.1
177.7
184.5
186.2
186.4
182.6
177.3
179.4
179.0
179.7
167.5
168.4
168.9
169.7
170.3
170.7
137.5
136.5
134.3
134.4
135.2
135.9
142.1
141.7
143.2
147.5
147.7
148.7
232.2
232.3
233.0
. 236. 5
238.8
243.0
176.0
178.1
181.8
182.4
182.1
181.2
175 7
176.7
177.7
178.9
178.2
178.7
188.2
189.0
190.4
190.5
186.1
186.0
193.7
193.2
197.1
197.3
191.7
193.8
184.6
186.3
186.1
186.2
182.6
181.0
171.2
172.2
173.1
174.7
175.4
176.1
136.8
137.6
138.4
141.3
143.2
144.0
149.3
149.3
151.3
152.4
154.4
154.6
246.6
252.4
254.9
256.5
257.0
258.0
181.4
182.1
182.2
182.3
182.9
183.4
179.3
179.3
179.6
181.3
181 8
183.1
184.6
182.0
180.3
183.7
184.9
187.5
192.8
191.0
187.2
192.9
192 6
196.5
179.4
176.4
175.8
178.0
179.9
181.8
177.3
178.0
178.9
180.0
180 4
181.3
145.1
146.3
146.7
147.4
147.0
148.1
157.5
159.9
162.0
165.4
169.6
167.4
257.3
255.7
255.7
256.9
257.2
260.3
184.2
184.9
185.6
187.1
186.9
187.1
184.3
183.7
184.7
185.2
185.6
187.1
188.1
181.7
182.7
179.4
178.4
183.9
196.9
189.3
191.8
186.6
183.6
191.6
182.6
176.8
177.1
174.9
174.8
179.0
182.6
183. 6
184.7
186.3
187.0
187.4
149.0
149.2
149.0
149.3
149.8
149.5
169.8
171.3
173.6
170.8
169.7
171.5
265.0
269.1
270.9
277.0
281.8
278.8
187.0
187.7
188.5
188.4
188.7
188.4
.-..
.
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
.
.
1975: Jan
Feb....
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1976: Jan
Feb
Mar.
Apr
May
June.
July
Aug .
Sept... _
Oct
Nov.. .
Dec
See next page for continuation of table and for footnotes.
247
59.4
TABLE B—53.~—Wholesale price indexes by major commodity groups,
1929-76—Continued
[1967=100]
Industrial commodities—Continued
Pulp,
Metals
Rubber Lumber
paper,
and
and
and
and
plastic
wood
metal
allied
products products products products
Year or month
Machinery and
equipment
Furniture and Nonmetallic
housemineral
hold
durables products
Transportation
equipment:
Motor
vehicles
and
equipment 2
Miscellaneous
products
1929
59.4
25.0
40.2
55.8
51.2
41 9
1933
40.2
19.0
30.7
44.6
47.2
34 8
1939
61.2
24.8
37.6
41.3
52.6
49.1
39 1
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
57.1
61.5
71.6
73.6
72.7
70.5
70.8
70.5
72.8
70.5
27.4
32.7
35.6
37.7
40.6
41.2
47.2
73.4
84.0
77.7
72.5
75.7
72.4
37.8
38.5
39.1
39.0
39.0
39.6
44.3
54.9
62.5
63.0
41.4
42.1
42.8
42.4
42.1
42.2
46.4
53.7
58.2
61.0
53.8
57.2
61.8
61.4
63.1
63.2
67.1
77.0
81.6
82.9
49.1
50.2
52.3
52.4
53.5
55.7
59.3
66.3
71.6
73.5
40 4
43 2
47.2
47 2
47.5
48 3
56 0
64.1
70 8
75.7
73 5
76 5
78.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
85.9
105.4
95.5
89.1
90.4
102.4
103.8
103.4
103.3
102.9
89.3
97.2
94 4
94.3
92.6
97.1
98.5
93.5
92.4
98.8
74.3
88.0
85.7
85.5
85.5
87.8
93.6
95.4
96.4
97.3
66.3
73.8
73.9
76.3
76.9
82.1
89.2
91.0
90.4
92.3
63.1
70.5
70.6
72.2
73.4
75.7
81.8
87.6
89.4
91.3
84.7
91.8
90.1
91.9
92.9
93.3
95.8
98.3
99.1
99.3
75.4
80.1
80.1
83.3
85.1
87.5
91.3
94.8
95.8
97.0
75 3
79.4
84 0
83.6
83.8
86 3
91.2
95.1
98.1
100.3
79 2
83.9
83 4
85.6
86.4
86.5
87.6
90.2
92.0
92.2
103.1
99.2
96.3
96.8
95.5
95.9
97.8
100.0
103.4
105.3
95.3
91.0
91.6
93.5
95.4
95.9
100.2
100.0
113.3
125.3
98.1
95.2
96.3
95.6
95.4
96.2
98.8
100.0
101.1
104.0
92.4
91.9
91.2
91.3
93.8
96.4
98.8
100.0
102.6
108.5
92.0
91.9
92.0
92.2
92.8
93.9
96.8
100.0
103.2
106.5
99.0
98.4
97.7
97.0
97.4
96.9
98.0
100.0
102.8
104.9
97.2
97.6
97.6
97.1
97.3
97.5
98.4
100.0
103.7
107.7
98.8
98.6
98.6
97.8
98.3
98.5
98.6
100.0
102.8
104.8
93.0
93.3
93.7
94.5
95.2
95.9
97.7
100.0
102.2
105.2
108.3
109.1
109.3
112.4
136.2
150.2
159.2
149.6
150.0
149.7
149.4
148.9
148.6
113.6
127.3
144.3
177 2
183.6
176.9
205.6
164.7
169.3
169.6
174.9
183.0
181.0
108.2
110.1
113.4
122.1
151.7
170.4
179.4
169.8
169.8
170.0
169.7
169.8
169.8
116.6
118.7
123.5
132.8
171.9
185.6
195.8
185.5
186.3
186.1
185.7
185.1
184.5
111.4
115.5
117.9
121.7
139.4
161.4
170.9
156.6
157.7
158.8
159.7
160.4
161.0
107.5
110.0
111.4
115.2
127.9
139.7
145.5
138.8
139.1
138.5
138.5
138.6
139.0
112.9
122.4
126.1
130.2
153.2
174.0
186.0
168.5
170 3
170.8
173.0
173.1
173.3
108.7
114.9
118.0
119.2
129.2
144.6
153.8
140.2
141.5
143.0
143.0
142.9
143.1
109.9
112.9
114.6
119.7
133.1
147.7
153.7
145.5
146.4
146.8
147.2
147.5
147.5
July.
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
150.1
150.0
150.8
151.5
151.8
151.9
179.6
179.7
179.9
179.1
178.3
183.1
170.0
170.0
170.3
170.9
171.3
173.1
183.4
184.3
185.5
187.2
187.0
187.1
161.7
162.2
163.1
164.1
165.3
165.8
139.2
139.8
140.1
141.1
141.5
142.0
174.7
175.8
176.1
177.1
177.7
178.0
143.1
143.5
143.9
150.0
150.6
150.9
147.7
147 A
148.2
147.6
148.6
151.1
1976: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
152.4
154.2
155.5
156.7
157.1
157.2
190.5
196.0
202.3
203.3
203.3
199.8
174.8
175.8
176.9
178.5
179.2
179.5
187.7
189.2
190.6
192.9
194.0
196.4
167.0
167.7
168.2
168.9
169.4
170.2
143.1
143.4
143.9
144.4
144.8
145.3
181.1
181.3
182.5
185.2
185.6
186.0
151.3
151.3
151.7
151.9
151.6
151.6
151.8
152.]
152.6
152. i
152.7
154 .t
158.2
161.0
163.6
164.5
164.8
164.6
203.7
207.5
212.7
213.6
214.3
219.9
180.5
181.0
181.6
181.4
181.7
182.0
198.7
199.0
200.0
199.9
199.9
200.8
171.0
171.4
172.9
174.2
174.7
175.5
145.7
146.1
146.5
147.0
147.4
147.8
186.9
187.7
188.2
189.1
189.1
189.5
151.7
152.8
153.5
159.0
159.1
159.5
153.8
153. E
153. £
154.:
156.:
157. C
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
. . .
. . .
1970
1971
.
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1975:Jan .
Feb
Mar
Apr
May__
June
.
.
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec.
* Prices for most items in this grouping are lagged and refer to 1 or 2 months earlier than the index month.
Index for total transportation equipment is not shown but is available beginning December 1968.
3
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
248
TABLE B-54.— Wholesale price indexes by stage of processing and by special groupings, 1947-76
[1967=100]
Intermediate materials, supplies, and components »
Crude materials
for further processing
Year or month
All
commodities
Materials and components for
manufacturing
Materials
and
components
For
For
Com- for conFor
nonstrucfood durable durable ponents tion
manu- manu- manufactur- factur- facturing
ing
ing
Materials
Total
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
Non,
food
materials
except
fuel
Fuel
Total
Total
1947
1948...
1949
76.5
82.8
78.7
101.2
110.9
96.0
111.7
120.8
100.3
90.6
100.7
91.6
66.6
78.7
78.3
72.4
78.3
75.2
72.1
77.8
74.5
94.0
96.9
83.3
95.2
100.8
91.9
54.4
61.4
63.1
58.3
63.0
64.2
66.0
73.1
73.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
81.8
91.1
88.6
87.4
87.6
104.6
120.1
110.3
101.9
101.0
107.6
124.5
117.2
104.9
104.9
104.7
120.7
104.6
100.1
98.2
77.9
79.4
79.9
82.7
79.0
78.6
88.1
85.5
86.0
86.5
78.1
88.5
84.8
86.2
86.3
86.7
96.6
92.9
93.0
92.2
96.5
111.7
100.6
99.8
98.2
66.7
74.1
74.3
77.6
79.3
66.6
75.6
75.7
77.1
77.5
77.0
84.3
83.7
85.1
85.5
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
87.8
90.7
93.3
94.6
94.8
97.1
97.6
99.8
102.0
99.4
95.1
93.1
97.2
103.0
96.2
103.8
107.6
106.2
102.2
105.8
78.8
84.4
89.2
90.3
91.9
88.1
92.0
94.1
94.3
95.6
88.4
92.6
94.8
95.2
96.5
89.3
89.7
91.3
93.4
90.0
98.6
100.1
101.4
100.4
102.1
83.3
88.5
91.
92.0
94.2
80.9
88.3
91.8
92.5
93.6
88.9
93.5
94.0
94.0
96.6
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
94.9
94.5
94.8
94.5
94.7
97.0
96.5
97.5
95.4
94.5
95.1
93.8
95.7
92.9
90.8
101.4
102.5
102.0
100.7
102.4
92.8
92.6
92.1
93.2
92.8
95.6
95.0
94.9
95.2
95.5
96.5
95.3
94.7
94.9
95.9
91.1
94.0
92.0
96.6
95.2
102.1
99.9
99.3
98.4
99.1
94.3
93.0
92.9
93.0
94.8
93.1
92.2
91.5
91.5
92.3
95.9
94.6
94.2
94.5
95.4
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
96.6
99.8
100.0
102.5
106.5
99.3
105.7
100.0
101.6
108.4
97.1
105.9
100.0
101.3
109.3
104.5
106.7
100.0
102.1
106.9
93.5
96.3
100.0
102.3
106.6
96.8
99.2
100.0
102.3
105.8
97.4
99.3
100.0
102.2
105.8
97.6
101.9
100.0
101.5
107.1
100.0
100.8
100.0
101.3
102.4
96.8
98.6
100.0
103.3
109.1
93.8
97.1
100.0
102.3
105.5
96.2
98.8
100.0
104.9
110.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
110.4
114.0
119.1
134.7
160.1
112.3
115.1
127.6
174.0
196.1
112.0
114.2
127.5
180.0
189.4
109.8
110.7
121.9
161.5
205.4
122.6
139.0
148.7
164.5
219.4
109.9
114.1
118.7
131.6
162.9
110.0
112.8
117.0
127.7
162.2
112.9
116.5
119.9
146.0
209.2
103.8
105.3
109.4
121.2
155.2
114.7
118.2
123.8
133.7
171.7
111.1
114.8
117.6
121.4
139.9
112.6
119.7
126.2
136.7
161.6
1975
1976
174.9
182.9
196.9
205.1
191.8
190.2
188.3
210.3
271.5
314.7
180.0
189.2
178.7
185.4
209.4
180.6
174.7
183.5
188.4
202.2
158.3
165.4
176.4
187.9
1975:Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June..
171.8
171.3
170.4
172.1
173.2
173.7
189.3
185.8
182.4
189.4
196.7
197.1
182.4
177.1
172.9
181.7
190.9
192.1
184.1
184.7
184.4
186.2
188.1
187.6
266.7
265.2
256.6
266.3
276.4
274.1
179.1
178.8
178.1
179.0
178.4
178.4
180.1
179.7
178.0
177.9
177.0
176.3
245.1
236.4
220.0
213.7
200.6
194.1
172.2
172.4
171.9
172.7
173.5
173.3
187.1
186.9
186.9
187.6
187.7
187.3
155.4
157.3
157.2
157.3
157.4
157.9
171.9
173.7
173.9
175.2
177.0
177.0
July...
Aug...
Sept_.
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
175.7
176.7
177.7
178.9
178.2
178.7
203.0
204.1
207.5
206.8
199.8
201.3
202.1
201.9
204.9
2C4.6
195.4
195.1
183.8
189.6
194.2
192.7
190.6
193.8
278.0
273.2
275.6
274.8
270.0
281.3
179.3
180.9
181.0
182.2
182.3
182.6
177.4
178.8
178.6
180.0
180.1
179.9
204.0
210.7
204.1
200.0
195.3
189.2
174.0
175.2
175.9
177.4
178.7
179.5
187.1
187.6
188.1
191.4
191.2
191.4
158.1
158.6
159.0
159.6
160.5
160.7
176.9
177.2
177.6
178.4
178.5
179.8
1976: J a n . . .
Feb...
Mar..
Apr. _
May_.
June..
179.3
179.3
179.6
181.3
181.8
183.1
201.2
199.5
199.1
205.3
205.7
210.2
193.2
191.6
188.3
194.5
194.1
197.8
199.8
196.3
200.5
207.0
208.7
214.3
279.3
278.5
286.2
291.6
293.3
301.8
183.7
184.5
185.6
186.8
187.5
188.9
180.6
181.4
182.2
183.6
184.2
185.1
186.3
183.0
183.7
182.9
183.6
182.1
180.3
181.0
181.7
183.2
183.4
183.5
192.5
194.6
195.9
198.0
199.4
202.0
161.5
162.0
162.4
163.0
163.4
164.0
181.7
182.9
184.6
185.5
186.0
186.5
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct_._
Nov..
Dec...
184.3
183.7
184.7
185.2
185.6
187.1
211.8
205.9
206.4
204.0
204.5
207.9
196.3
188.6
189.0
182.2
178.8
187.4
222.8
216.4
217.2
213.1
213.3
213.7
306.0
315.8
316.0
356.7
390.4
361.2
190.4
190.8
192.4
192.6
193.0
193.9
186.6
186.9
188.0
188.3
188.6
189.1
186.8
178.0
176.5
174.4
174.7
175.5
184.4
184.6
185.1
184.8
185.1
184.7
204.2
205.4
207.3
208.3
208.5
209.9
164.6
166.4
168.0
169.2
169.5
170.2
188.2
189.6
191.5
192.1
192,4
193.6
See next page for continuation of table and for footnotes.
249
TABLE B-54.—Wholesale price indexes by stage of processing and by special groupingst 1947-76—
Continued
[1967=1001
Finished goods
Special groupings
Consumer finished goods
Year or month
Total
Foods
Other
nondurable
goods
Total
Durable
goods
Producer
finished
goods
Intermediate
mateCrude rials,
mate- suprials 2 plies,
and
components 3
Manufactured
Congoods
sumer
finished
goods
exclud- Total Duraing
ble
foods
1947
1948
1949
74.0
79.9
77.6
80.5
86.5
82.5
82.8
90.4
83.1
80.7
85.8
82.3
74.6
79.7
81.8
55.4
69.4
63.4
79.2
92.5
84.0
70.0
76.1
74.2
79.0
84.0
82.2
72 3
78.2
75.5
59 4
65.4
67.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
79.0
86 5
86.0
85.1
85.3
83.9
91 8
90.7
89.2
89.1
84.7
95.2
94.3
89.4
88.7
83.6
90.0
87.8
88.6
88.9
82.7
88.2
88.9
89.6
90.3
64.9
71.2
72.4
73.6
74.5
93.6
102.9
93.1
92.4
88.0
77.7
87 0
84.3
85.3
85.7
83.5
89 5
88 3
89.1
89.4
78.4
87 0
85 1
85.0
85.7
69.6
76 3
76 7
78 4
79.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
85.5
87.9
91.1
93.2
93.0
88.5
89.8
92.4
94.4
93.6
86.5
86.3
89.3
94.5
90.1
89.4
91.1
93.2
92.6
94.0
91.2
94.3
97.1
98.4
99.6
76.7
82.4
87.5
89.8
91.5
96.6
102.3
100.9
96.9
102.3
88.3
92.6
95.0
94.8
96.4
90.1
92.3
94 6
94.7
95.9
86.6
90.0
92 8
93.8
94.6
82 2
87.5
90 9
92 2
94.0
93.7
93.7
94.0
93.7
94.1
94.5
94 3
94.6
94.1
94.3
92.1
91.7
92.5
91.4
91.9
94.7
94.7
94.8
95.1
94.8
99.2
98.8
98.3
97.8
98.2
91.7
91.8
92.2
92.4
93.3
98.3
97.2
95.6
94.3
97.1
96.8
95.5
95.3
95.0
95.6
96.3
96 2
96 0
96.0
95.9
94.8
94.4
94.5
94.3
94.8
94.1
93 6
93 5
93.5
94.6
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
95.7
98.8
100.0
102.9
106.6
96.1
99.4
100.0
102.7
106.6
95.4
101.6
100.0
103.7
110.0
95.9
97.8
100.0
102.2
105.0
97.9
98.5
100.0
102.2
104.0
94.4
96.8
100.0
103.5
106.9
100.9
104.5
100.0
102.0
110.6
96.9
98.9
100.0
102.6
106.1
96.6
98.1
100.0
102.1
104.6
96.3
99.1
100.0
102.6
106.3
95.8
97.9
100.0
103.5
107.7
1970
1971
.
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1975- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1976: Jan
Feb
Mar.
Apr
May
June...
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
110.3
113.7
117.2
127.9
147.5
163.4
170.2
159.3
159.3
158.9
160.0
161.2
162.5
164.5
164.9
166.2
168.0
168.0
168.5
168.7
168.2
167.9
169.0
169.3
169.8
170.5
170.0
170.7
172.2
172.4
174.1
109.9
112.9
116.6
129.2
149.3
163.6
168.9
159.8
159.4
158.5
159.7
161.1
162.6
165.0
165.3
166.7
168.3
168.1
168.5
168.3
167.4
166.8
168.0
168.4
168.8
169.5
168.6
169.2
169.9
170.1
172.0
113.5
115.3
121.7
146.4
166.9
181.0
180.2
177.0
175.5
172.6
174.9
177.7
180.3
184.8
183.9
186.5
187.3
185.5
185.6
183.7
180. 2
178.6
182.1
183.2
182.1
182.2
177.9
178.1
176.8
176.0
180.9
108.3
111.7
113.6
120.5
146.8
163.0
173.2
158.2
158.8
158.9
159.5
160.4
161.6
163.2
165.1
166.1
167.2
168.0
168.9
169.5
170.2
169.9
170.2
170.1
171.7
173.5
174.9
176.0
176.7
177.5
178.0
106.9
110.8
113.2
115.8
126.3
138.2
144.3
135.9
136.3
136.9
137.0
137.0
137.3
137.4
137.4
137.7
141.1
141.8
142.2
142.9
142.9
143.1
142.9
142.9
143.5
143.5
143.5
144.1
147.1
147.4
147.8
112.0
116.6
119.5
123.5
141.0
162.5
173.2
157.4
158.3
159.7
160.7
161.2
161.7
162.4
163.0
164.0
166.5
167.4
168.0
169.5
169.9
170.5
171.1
171.3
172.0
172.6
173.1
174.2
177.4
177.8
178.9
118.9
122.7
131.1
155.2
219.1
225.1
250.0
219.4
221.0
218.4
222.7
225.8
226.3
223.4
225.8
231.5
228.6
226.5
231.2
233.9
231.8
237.9
246.0
246.2
248.6
254.2
254.9
253.0
261.5
269.6
262.3
109.9
114.3
118.9
128.1
159.5
178.6
189.4
175.0
175.9
176.4
177.3
177.7
177.8
178.3
179.3
179.9
181.4
182.0
182.6
183.7
184.8
185.9
187.3
187.8
188. 7
190.0
191.2
192.6
193.1
193.5
194.1
107.7
111.2
113.5
118.6
138.6
153.1
161.7
149.4
149.8
150.2
150.6
151.1
152.0
152.9
154.1
154.8
156.8
157.6
158.3
158.9
159.4
159.3
159.3
159.3
160.5
161.5
162.3
163.2
164.9
165.5
165.9
110.2
113.9
117.9
129.2
154.1
171.1
178.9
168.2
168.0
167.8
168.7
169.5
170.1
171.4
172.3
173.0
174.5
174.4
174.7
175.3
175.6
176.0
177.0
177.6
178.7
179.7
179.7
180.8
181.5
181.9
183.2
112.0
117.0
121.1
127.4
148.6
165.6
175.5
162.0
163.2
163.7
164.4
164.9
165.1
165.2
165.7
166.2
168.2
168.8
169.4
170.7
171.4
172.3
173.1
173.6
174.6
175.6
176.4
177.7
179.7
180.0
181.0
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
.
iIncludes, in addition to subgroups shown, processed fuels and lubricants, containers, and supplies.
> Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaf tobacco.
» Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds.
Note.—For a listing of the commodities included in each sector, see monthly report, "Wholesale Prices and Price
Indexes," January-February 1967.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
250
TABLE B-55.—Wholesale price indexes for selected groupings, seasonally adjusted^ 1973-76
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Special groupings
Farm products and
processed foods
md feed:
Year and
month
Consumer finished goods
Intermediate
mateCrude rials,
mate- suprials i plies,
and
components 3
Producer
finished
goods
Total
Farm
products
Processed
foods
and
feeds
136.4
141.1
148.5
148.6
155.8
163.2
144.1
148.6
159.3
161.0
170.6
180.6
131.5
136.3
141.5
140.7
146.4
152.1
139.8
141.2
141.4
144.6
147.7
151.6
121.9
123.0
124.9
125.9
127.1
128.0
154.5
183.1
172.9
168 3
167.0
169.2
169.8
212.0
199.9
191 2
188.3
189.6
144.7
164.7
155.7
153.7
153.4
156.2
154.3
156.5
162.0
166.5
174.9
182.5
176.9
178.8
175.7
170.3
168.7
161.7
201.9
202.3
195.5
186.4
181.4
167.3
160.9
163.9
163.1
160.1
160.6
158.2
170.7
182.2
178.7
186.1
190.9
187.3
178.0
188.4
182.6
189.9
191.7
186.1
Mar
Apr
May
June
182.7
177.8
174.5
179.7
183.0
182.0
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Other
nondurable
goods
Durable
goods
Total
130.6
132.2
138.7
141.3
142 9
145.8
115.7
117.4
118.0
118.6
119.1
119.6
113.3
113.7
114.4
115.2
115.7
116.0
121.6
123.6
125.4
126.5
128.0
129.8
122.8
123.8
125.4
126.4
127.3
127.3
128.3
133.9
133.5
133 5
134.7
136.0
144.3
158.0
156.3
154 8
155.5
156.6
120.0
120.5
121.2
123 0
125.0
127.2
116.1
116.5
116.7
116.4
117.0
117.5
128.5
132.7
131.5
132.3
133.6
135.8
127.1
127.6
128.2
129.1
130.6
132.4
128.1
129.3
131.0
132.6
136.0
138.8
139.4
142.3
143.1
144.9
146.4
145.6
161.1
164.6
162.8
163.9
163.8
158.2
130.7
134.1
137.7
140.9
143.9
147.0
119.2
120.1
120.9
122.0
123.7
125.1
138.7
141.0
143.5
146.3
149.2
151.2
134.3
135.3
138.2
141.0
145.2
147.7
163.4
168.6
170.1
172.3
174.0
174.9
141.7
145.3
148.3
151.6
153.8
155.2
149.1
151.7
153.5
156.3
159.7
159.5
163.3
167.1
168.8
172.1
179.4
177.3
149.9
152.4
154.4
156.2
157.1
157.8
126.8
127.7
129.4
132.6
133.8
134.9
155.6
161.0
162.1
165.4
167.0
167.9
151.1
154.2
156.4
158.8
160.2
161.3
221.4
219.2
217.1
219.6
222.5
224.1
176.4
176.8
176.8
176.8
176.5
176.9
157.1
158.4
159.9
160.9
161.3
161.8
159.2
158.5
157.7
160.0
161.6
162.9
175.1
173.2
170.6
175.9
179.6
181.7
158.8
159.0
158.7
159.2
159.9
160.8
135.5
136.2
136.9
137.0
137.0
137.3
168.4
168.3
167.6
169.0
169.3
169.8
162.7
163.5
164.0
164.2
164.2
164.3
182.5
184.8
185.3
186.6
184.3
181.8
224.5
226.5
232.9
231.4
227.4
235.4
177.1
178.2
179.4
181.6
183.3
184.6
162.6
163.1
164.3
166.3
167.1
167.9
164.2
164.9
167.1
168.7
169.2
169.4
183.6
183.2
186.6
187.9
187.6
187.0
162.4
164.4
166.3
167.9
169.0
170.1
137.4
137.8
138.8
140.7
141.8
141.9
170.5
171.4
172.7
174.7
175.3
175.8
164.5
165.0
166.0
168.4
169.5
170.6
192.6
187.7
185.9
193.8
194.9
195.4
178.3
175.5
175.9
179.3
181.6
182.4
236.0
230.0
236.5
242.6
242.6
246.1
185.2
185.7
186.3
186.7
186.5
187.8
169.1
170.0
170.7
171.3
171.4
172.1
167.9
166.7
166.0
168.4
168.9
169.0
182.0
178.1
176.6
183.4
185.3
183.6
170.2
170.4
169.7
169.9
169.6
170.8
142.5
142.8
143.1
142.9
142.9
143.5
175.5
176.0
175.8
177.4
177.4
178.3
171.4
171.7
172.6
172.9
172.9
173.7
193.4
187.7
191.2
188.9
188.0
194.9
180.8
175.6
176.4
175.1
176.2
179.7
255.5
255.7
254.5
264.7
270.7
267.1
188.7
190.1
192.0
193.3
194.9
196.3
172.9
173.2
174.5
177.0
177.4
178.7
168.6
167.9
169.5
170.1
171.3
173.0
180.4
176.4
177.7
177.0
178.4
182.7
172.6
174.2
176.2
177.4
178.6
179.3
143.5
143.9
145.3
146.7
147.4
147.5
178.8
178.8
180.4
181.7
182.8
184.3
174.9
175.7
177.5
179.9
180.7
182.3
Total
Foods
120.3
121.1
121.7
122.4
123.2
123.5
120.8
122.1
125.0
126.4
127 3
128.7
127.7
128.7
129.7
131 1
133.2
136.2
123.6
124.0
124.4
124.9
125.6
126.6
189.7
201.3
210.7
221.7
213.3
215.6
138.9
141.2
146.1
150.3
155.2
158.8
166.0
178.2
176.2
183.7
190.4
188.1
229.8
230.2
231.0
231.5
229.6
224.8
178.8
171.7
169.7
178.1
186.0
184.5
185.1
181.6
177.5
180.7
181.0
180.4
185.4
187.8
189.8
191.7
188.9
187.8
189.9
192.7
196.9
199.9
196.1
197.2
1976: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
183.8
180.3
179.9
184.9
186.8
187.5
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
185.7
180.3
182.1
180.4
180.8
185.6
1973:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1974:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1975: Jan
Feb
Manufactured
goods
1 Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaf tobacco.
Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2
251
Durable
goods
TABLE B-56.—Percent changes in wholesale price indexes, major groups\ 1948-76
(Percent change]
Year or month
All
commodities
Industrial
commodities
Farm products
and processed
foods and feeds
Consumer finished goods
Total
Dec.
to
Dec.1
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec1
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec 1
Year
to
year
1948
1949
1 5
-6.1
8.2
5 0
-5.0
8.6
-2.1
-6.8
-8.9
7.6
-5.0
-11.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
14.7
1.2
-3.4
14.0
.4
-1.4
.2
13.8
-3.9
-6.5
-.3
10.2
2.7
-3.1
.2
17.0
3.5
-8.2
-2.3
-2.6
4.8
10.4
-2.3
2.2
4.5
-6.4
6.0
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.5
-.6
. . ..
1.6
4.5
3.9
11.4
-2.7
-1.4
.2
.2
3.3
1.4
2.0
.5
2.9
1.4
.2
.5
-.2
.1
-.4
-.6
-.1
0
- 1
.4
.3
- 3
.2
'5
1965
1966
1S67
1968
1969
3 4
1.7
1 0
2.8
4.8
2 0
3.3
2
2.5
3.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
2 2
4.1
6 3
15.4
20.9
1975
1976
4 2
.8
4.3
4.2
1.1
.9
1.2
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
3.6
4.7
2.8
.3
1.8
All except foods
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec 1
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec.1
Year
to
year
1.2
7.5
-5.6
-4.6
-2.4
-7.4
9 2
-8.1
4 C
-4.5
6 3
-2 1
12.4
g
-5.2
-.8
8 2
.9
-1.1
1 6
.3
1 6
7.2
-1.3
-.6
13.3
5.3
-5.9
-2.2
-1.9
1.9
9.4
-1.2
-1.7
-.1
-4.7
-.7
-.1
3.1
-.7
1.5
-2.9
3.6
3.0
2.9
5.3
-2.5
-.2
1.7
2.5
2.4
2
-4." 4
3.4
4.7
-4.7
.2
-.7
2.2
-.8
.4
-3.7
5.8
-4.7
.2
.8
2 5
.1
1.3
5.2
4.2
Dec.
to
Dec.'
Foods
-.1
1.7
3.5
1.7
9
.3
8
3.9
-.6
.2
0
2.1
-.8
1.0
-.2
2.2
-.4
.4
-.3
.6
.6
-2.1
0
1.1
-1.0
-.6
.1
-.4
.2
.3
-.5
.2
-1.8
.5
-1.3
.4
.4
5
0
_ 1
.5
.9
-1.2
.5
-.1
1
.1
-.2
0
-.1
1 4
2.2
1 9
2.7
3.9
1.3
2.2
1 5
2.5
3.4
9.5
.2
-1.8
3.5
7.5
4.2
6.6
-3.4
2.4
5.5
4.0
1.6
1.?
3.1
4.9
1.9
3.4
.6
2.7
3.8
9.1
1.4
-.4
4.8
8.2
3.8
6.5
-1.6
3.7
6.1
.9
1.7
2 1
2.0
2.9
7
1.6
1 9
2.1
2.4
3 7
3.3
4 5
13.1
18.9
3 6
3.4
3 4
10.7
25.6
3 8
3.7
3 3
6.8
22.2
-1 4
6.0
14 4
26.7
11.0
3.4
2.0
7.5
30.0
11.5
1.4
3.5
4.3
13.6
17.1
3.1
2.7
3.3
10.8
15.6
-2.5
5.9
8.0
22.5
13.0
3.2
1.6
5.6
20.3
14.0
3 9
1.8
2.2
7.4
20.5
3 0
3.2
2 1
4.5
16.9
9 2
6 0
11 5
-.3
-1.1
-.6
3.8
6.2
9.6
5.5
-2.5
-.4
8.4
6.7
10.5
4.6
6.4
0
-
6.3
2.1
3.2
4.8
5.6
Change from preceding month
SeaSeaSeaSeaSeaSeaUnad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally
adadjusted
adjusted
adjusted
justed
justed
adadjusted
justed
justed
justed
justed
justed
justed
-1.4
-2.3
-2.6
2.2
1.3
.6
-2.5
-2.7
-1.9
3.0
1.8
-.5
0.7
-.3
-.6
.8
.9
.9
-0.2
-.4
-.5
1.5
1.0
.8
0.6
-.8
-1.7
1.3
1.6
1.5
-1.2
-1.1
-1.5
3.1
2.1
1.2
0.7
.3
.3
.3
.3
.6
0.5
.2
.1
.2
.3
.5
.4
.7
3.2
.4
.7
1.5
.2
.8
.8
.4
1.3
2.5
-.5
1.4
1.0
1.2
7
6
-1.0
-.6
1.0
.3
.1
1.3
-1.5
1.0
-.1
.2
.7
.9
1.0
1.0
-2 3
.1
.7
-.2
-.3
.6
.8
.5
9
4
4
1.9
1.3
1.1
.4
.8
.4
.9
.3
.7
-.2
-.4
2
.8
.3
.4
.7
.4
5
.6
.2
.5
.4
.1
3
.3
.1
.5
-.8
-1.4
-.9
1.9
-2.1
-1.9
-.2
2.8
1.0
.4
-!5
-. 4
.7
.2
.2
-.9
-.7
-.4
1.4
.3
.1
-1.0
-1.9
-.9
2.0
.6
-.6
-2.7
-2.1
-.8
3.9
1.0
-.9
.4
.3
-.1
0
0
.8
.1
.2
-.2
-. 1
0
.6
.7
-.3
.5
.3
.2
.8
.3
-.1
.9
.6
.6
.9
.7
.5
.6
.9
.4
.2
.7
.7
.9
1.0
.8
.3
.3
-3.4
.6
-1.8
-.6
3.1
.4
-.5
.4
.4
.1
1.1
-.2
-.4
1.0
.4
.7
1.0
.1
-2.4
.1
-.7
-.5
2.8
-1.7
-2.2
.6
.5
.6
1.0
.4
.2
.7
.6
1.1
.7
.7
.2
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
0.2
l'.O
.6
.3
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1976: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr....
May
June
July
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec
1
0.8
!6
.0
0.8
.5
.3
.5
.4
.2
1.2
.6
6
.8
.9
9
.3
.6
5
.7
4
3
1.1
1
3
.3
oo
-0.2
-.7
-.5
'.2
.2
.2
.1
-.1
K4
1.0
-1.0
-2.9
1.0
-.9
2'. 7
Changes from December to December are based on unadjusted indexes.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
252
.4
-'.4
.8
2.4
MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCE
T A B L E B-57.—Money stock measures, 1947-76
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Components and related items
Overall measures
M2
Deposits at commercial banks
M3
(M, plus
(IV! 2 plus
M!
time
Time and savings 3
Currency deposits deposits
Curat nonat complus
rency l De- 2
bank
demand
mercial
mand
thrift
deposits)
banks
Total Large Other
CDs<
other than instituarge CDs) tions)
Year and
month
Deposits
at nonbank
thrift
institutions 8
U.S.
Government
demand
deposits
(unadjusted)*
1947: Dec...
1948' Dec
1949- Dec
113 1
111.5
111.2
26 4
25 8
25.1
86.7
85.8
86.0
35.4
36.0
36.4
1.0
1.8
2.8
19501951:
[952:
[953:
[954:
1955:
[956:
1957:
1958:
1959:
116.2
122.7
127.4
128.8
132 3
135.2
136.9
135 9
141. 1
143.4
210.9
303.8
25 0
26.1
27 3
27 7
27 4
27*8
28.2
28 3
28*6
28.9
91.2
96.5
100.1
101.1
104.9
107.4
108.7
107.6
112.6
114.5
36.7
38.2
41.1
44.5
48.3
50.0
51.9
57.4
65.4
67.4
67.4
92.9
2.4
2.7
4.9
3.8
5.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.9
4.9
I960* Dec
1961: Dec
1962: Dec
1963: Dec . . .
1964: Dec
1965: Dec
1966: Dec
1967: Dec
1968: Dec
1969: Dec
144.2
148.7
150.9
156.5
163.7
171.3
175.7
187.3
202.2
208.8
217.1
228.6
242.9
258.9
277.1
301.3
318.1
349.9
382.9
392.3
319.3
342.1
369.2
*00.3
434.4
471.7
495.4
543.9
589.6
607.3
29 0
29.6
30.6
32.5
34.3
36.3
38.3
40.4
43.4
46.1
115.2
119.1
120.3
124.1
129.5
134.9
137.3
146.9
158.7
162.8
72.9
82.7
97.6
112.0
126.2
146.4
157.9
183.3
204.3
194.4
2.8
5.7
9.6
12.8
16.4
15.5
20.6
23.5
10.9
72.9
79.9
92.0
102.3
113.4
130.0
142.4
162.6
180.8
183.5
102.3
113.4
126.4
141.4
157.3
170.4
177.3
194.0
206.7
214.9
4.7
4.9
5.6
5.1
5.5
4.6
3.4
5.0
5.0
5.6
1970:
1971:
1972:
1973:
1974:
1975:
1976:
219.6
233.8
255.3
270.5
283.1
294.8
311.9
423.5
471.7
525.3
571.4
612.4
664.3
739.5
656.2
745.1
844.9
919.5
981.6
1,092.9
1, 236. 3
49.1
52.6
56.9
61.5
67.8
73.7
80.7
170.5
181.3
198.4
209.0
215.3
221.0
231.2
229.2
271.2
313.6
364.4
419.1
452.4
491.5
25.3
33.3
43.6
63.5
89.8
82.9
63.8
204.0
237.8
270.0
300.9
329.3
369.6
427.6
232.7
273.4
319.6
348.0
369.2
428.6
496.8
7.3
6.9
7.4
6.3
4.9
4.1
4.4
281.9
281.9
284.1
284.9
287.6
291.0
614.5
618.2
623.0
626.7
633.7
642.4
986.7
994.0
1,003.7
1,012.7
1,C25.3
1,040.2
68.2
68.7
69.4
69.5
70.2
71.0
213.7
213.2
214.7
215.4
217.4
220.0
425.4
428.3
428.7
430.1
431.2
435.5
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
291.9
293.2
293.6
293.4
295.6
294.8
647.5
650.6
652.9
655.8
662.1
664.3
1.C51.6
1,060.6
1,068.1
1,075.8
1.C86.5
1,092.9
71.3
71.9
72.0
72 6
73.4
73.7
220.6
221.3
221.6
220.8
222.1
221.0
437.6
436.2
438.3
443.3
448.3
452.4
92.7
92.1
89.8
88.4
85.1
84.1
82.1
78.8
79.1
80.9
81.8
82.9
332.6
336.2
339.0
341.8
346.1
351.4
355.5
357.4
359.2
362.4
366.5
369.6
372.2
375.9
380.7
386.0
391.6
397.8
404.1
410.0
415.2
420.0
424.4
428.6
1976: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
295.1
296.6
298.1
301.8
303.5
303.2
670.0
677.9
682. 6
690.8
695.7
698.5
1,103.5
1,116.7
1,126.5
1,140.0
1,150.0
1,157.4
74.2
75.0
75.7
76.7
77. 3
77.6
220.9
221.6
222.4
225.2
226.2
225.6
454.1
456.7
457.6
460.4
460.4
465.9
79.2
75.4
73.2
71.5
68.2
70.6
374.9
381.3
384.4
388.9
392.2
395.3
433.5
438.8
444.0
449.3
454.3
458.9
304.9
306.4
306.3
309.8
309.8
311.9
705.4
710.8
716.4
725.8
732.0
739.5
1,169.9
1,182.3
1,195.3
1,211.7
1,223.4
1, 236.3
78.1
78.6
79.1
79.8
80.3
80.7
226.8 470.0
227.8 468.7
227.2 472.5
230.0 478.0
229.5 484.2
231.2 491.5
69.6
64.4
62.4
62.0
62.1
63.8
400.4
404.4
410.1
416.0
422.2
427.6
464.5
471.6
478.9
485.8
491.4
496.8
4.0
3.3
3.8
4.0
4.1
4.2
3.4
2.7
3.9
3.4
3.5
4.1
3.8
4.6
3.9
3.9
3.8
4.8
3.4
3.6
4.9
3.8
4.0
4.4
Dec
Dec.
Dec
DecV
Dec
Dec"'..".
Dec .
Dec
Dec""]..
Dec...I..
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec*...
1975: Jan
Feb_.
Mar
Apr
May
June
.
July
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec »
1
Currency
2
outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of all commercial banks.
Demand deposits other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, less cash items in
process of collection and Federal Reserve float, plus foreign balances at Federal Reserve Banks.
3
Time and savings deposits other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government. Effective
June 1966, excludes balances accumulated for payment of personalloans(about $1.1 billion).
« Negotiable time certificates of deposit (CDs) issued in denominations of $100,000 or more by large weekly reporting
commercial banks.
* Average of the beginning- and end-of-month deposits of mutual savings banks, savings capital at savings and loan
associations, and credit union shares.
6
Deposits at all commercial banks.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/- 77 - 17
224-250 O
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
253
TABLE B-58.—Commercial bank loans and investments, 1930-76
[Billions of dollars]
End of year
or month i
Total loans
and investments 2
1930:June
1933: June
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
Loans
Total J
48.9
30.4
40.7
43.9
50.7
67.4
85.1
105.5
124.0
114.0
116.3
114.2
U.S. Government securities
5.0
7.5
16.3
17.8
21.8
41.4
59.8
77.6
90.6
74.8
69.2
62.6
34.5
16.3
17.2
18.8
21.7
19.2
19.1
21.6
26.1
31.1
38.1
42.4
113.0
118.7
124.7
130.2
139.1
143.1
153.1
157.6
161 6
166.4
181.2
188.7
197 4
Investments
Commercial
and
industrial
Other
securities
Loans plus
loans sold to
bank affiliates »
9.4
6.5
7.1
7.4
7.2
6.8
6.1
6.3
7.3
8.1
9.0
9.2
Seasonally adjusted
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 .
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 *
1970
1971
1972
1973_
1974
1975
1976 p
1976: Jan p .
Feb v
Mar v
Apr v
May p
June *» _ _
«316.1
352 0
390 2
401.7
435.5
485.7
558.0
633.4
8
690.4
721.1
767.5
723.3
726.7
731.2
734.5
737.6
738.8
July p
Aug p
Sept p
Oct p
Nov p
Dec p
743.1
748.7
752.5
760.3
766.3
767.5
39.4
42 1
43.9
47 6
52.1
58.4
69.5
78.6
86.2
95 9
105.7
110.0
116.1
7 130.2
156.4
8
183.3
176.0
176.2
176.6
175.1
«>171.4
170.5
170.7
170.2
62.3
66.4
61.1
60.4
62.2
62.2
67.6
60.3
57.2
56.9
65.1
57.7
59.9
65.3
64.7
61.5
60.7
57.1
53.5
59.4
60.7
51.2
57.8
60.6
62.6
54.5
50.4
79.4
96.5
81.0
84.4
88.2
90.0
93.0
94.0
10.3
12.4
13.4
14.2
14.7
16.4
16.8
16.3
17.9
20.5
20.5
20.8
23.9
29.2
35.0
38.7
44.8
«48.7
61.3
71.3
71.1
85.7
«104.2
116.5
129.9
8
139.8
144.8
149.4
145.0
144.5
143.3
144.0
144.0
144.1
283.3
294.7
«323.7
381.5
453.3
8
» 505.0
501.3
525.4
501.6
502.3
503.9
504.7
505.0
505.2
171.0
171.0
172.0
174.8
176.7
176.2
41.5
42.0
51.1
56.5
62.8
66.2
69.1
80.6
88 1
91.5
95.6
110.5
116 7
123.6
137 3
153 7
172.9
198 2
«213.9
231 3
258 2
279.4
292.0
e 320.9
378.9
449.0
8
500.2
496.9
521.6
497.3
497.8
499.7
500.5
500.6
500.7
92.7
95.0
94.0
93.5
94.3
96.5
145.7
146.1
147.1
147.5
150.2
149.4
509.2
511.6
515.3
523.1
525.6
525.4
504.7
507.6
511.4
519.3
521.8
521.6
212 8
231 2
250 2
272.3
300 1
9.2
1 Data are for last Wednesday of month or year (except June 30 and December 31 call dates).
Adjusted to exclude all interbank loans beginning 1948 and domestic bank loans only beginning January 1959.
Beginning January 1959, loans and investments are reported gross, without valuation reserves deducted, rather than
net of valuation reserves, as in earlier periods.
< Effective June 1966, balances accumulated for payment of personal loans (about $1.1 billion) are excluded from loans
at all commercial banks, and certain certificates of CCC and Export-Import Bank totaling about $1 billion are included in
other securities rather than in loans.
« Beginning June 1969, data include all bank-premises subsidiaries and other significant majority-owned domestic
subsidiaries; earlier data include commercial banks only.
« Beginning June 1971, Farmers Home Administration insured notes totaling about $0.7 billion are classified as other
securities rather than as loans.
7
Beginning June 1972, commercial and industrial loans were reduced by about $0.4 billion due to loan ^classifications
at one large bank.
8
Beginning June 1974, the merger of a large mutual savings bank and a nonmember commercial bank increased total
loans and investments by $0.6 billion, loans by $0.5 billion, and other securities by $0.1 billion.
Beginning November 1974, the liquidation of one large bank reduced total loans and investments by $1.5 billion, total
loans by $1 0 billion, commercial and industrial loans by $0.6 billion, and other securities by J0.5 billion. In addition, commercial and industrial loans were increased by $0.1 billion due to loan ^classifications at one large bank.
9
Beginning August 1974, reflects new cefinition of affiliates included and different group of reporting banks. Amount of
total loans sold was reduced by $0.1 billion.
2
1
*° Loan reclassifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 1976.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
254
TABLE B-59.—Private liquid asset holdings, nonfinancial investors, 1959—76
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Currency and deposits
Time deposits
Year
and
month
1959: Dec.
1960: Dec.
1961: Dec__
1962: Dec._
1963: Dec__
1964: Dec.
1965: Dec.
1966: Dec.
1967: Dec.
1968: Dec._
1969: Dec.
Total
liquid
assets
Total
Currency i
Demand
deposits l
Commercial
banks i
Nonbank
thrift
institutions 2
U.S. Treasury
securities
Savings
bonds3
Shortterm
marketable
securities 4
Negotiable
certificates
of deposit s
Other
private
money
market
instruments 8
372.9
290.6
28.9
104.2
64.7
92.9
46.1
35.3
386.2
410.3
441.8
479.1
515.2
305.7
326.3
352.2
382.3
414.6
29.0
29.6
30.6
32.5
34.3
104.6
106.3
106.5
109.7
114.3
69.9
77.0
88.8
98.6
108.8
102.2
113.5
126.4
141.5
157.3
45.7
46.5
46.9
48.1
49.0
32.1
31.9
33.4
35.0
33.0
2.7
5.3
9.0
11.6
2.8
3.1
4.0
4.8
6.9
559.2
587.1
638.6
697.2
723.2
451.1
474.3
521.0
565.3
582.8
36.3
38.3
40.4
43.4
46.1
119.3
121.7
130.3
140.9
145.0
125.1
136.9
156.2
174.3
176.8
170.4
177.3
194.0
206.7
214.9
49.6
50.2
51.2
51.8
51.7
35.8
37.8
34.8
40.9
53.2
15.1
14.6
19.3
22.5
9.1
7.5
10.3
12.4
16.6
26.4
1970: Dec.
1971: Dec_
1972: Dec.
1973: Dec.
1974: Dec.
770.9
857.4
972.0
1,083.6
1,175.2
632.5
721.0
817.4
887.4
944.6
49.1
52.6
56.9
61.5
67.8
151.8
161.5
176.5
183.3
186.6
198.9
233.6
264.4
294.4
321.1
232.7
273.4
319.6
348.0
369.2
52.0
54.3
57.6
60.4
63.3
42.0
31.7
34.5
43.2
47.1
23.0
30.2
39.8
58.1
79.8
21.4
20.2
22.7
34.6
40.4
1975: Dec__
1,301.8 1,053.3
73.7
190.6
360.3
428.6
67.3
65.7
72.9
42.7
1975: Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
949.4
1,183.5
956.1
1,191.5
965.0
1, 199. 5
1, 208. 3 973.5
985.6
1,218.2
1, 233.1 1, 000. 5
68.2
68.7
69.4
69.5
70.2
71.0
185.2
184.7
185. 6
186.3
187.9
190.2
323.8
326.9
329.3
331.7
335.9
341.5
372.2
375.9
380.7
386.0
391.6
397.8
63.6
63.9
64.2
64.5
64.8
65.2
48.0
48.7
49.0
49.6
50.7
52.2
82.6
82.1
79.7
78.5
75.1
73.6
39.9
40.6
41.7
42.1
42.0
41.6
July..
Aug_.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
1,245.4
1,254.0
1,262.6
1,274.9
1,291.5
1,301.8
1,012.2
1,021.4
1, 028. 8
1, 036. 8
1, 047. 5
1, 053. 3
71.3
71.9
72.0
72.6
73.4
73.7
190.8
191.7
192.0
191. 2
192.5
190.6
345.9
347.8
349.6
353.0
357.1
360.3
404.1
410.0
415.2
420.0
424.4
428.6
65.6
65.9
66.2
66.6
66.9
67.3
54.6
57. 1
58.2
60. b
64.0
65.7
71.9
69.0
69.1
70.6
71.6
72.9
41.2
40.6
40.2
40.4
41.5
42.7
1976: Jan..
Feb..
Mar.
Apr..
May..
June-
1,311.3
1, 322. 3
1,331.3
1, 345. 3
1,355.0
1, 366. 5
1, 064. 5
1, 078.1
1, 087. 6
',101.6
,112.2
,118.9
74.2
75.0
75.7
76.7
77.3
77.6
191.0
191.8
192.0
194.5
196.0
195.0
365.8
372.5
375.9
381.1
384.6
387.4
433.5
438.8
444.0
449.3
454.3
458.9
67.6
68.0
68.3
68.6
69.0
69.4
66.5
66.8
67.8
68.5
69.1
70.0
69.5
66.1
64.1
62.3
58.9
61.1
43.1
43.3
43.6
44.4
45.8
47.2
1, 380.9
1, 388. 7
1, 398. 3
1,414.2
1, 427.1
,131.2
, 144. 0
,156.4
,171.8
, 183. 3
78.1
78.6
79.1
79.8
80.3
195.9
196.7
195.7
198.2
197.5
392.7
397.1
402.7
408.0
414.0
464.5
471.6
478.9
485. 8
491.5
69.7
70.3
70.8
71.1
71.5
72.0
71.4
69.6
69.0
68.8
60.0
54.9
53.4
53.7
54.0
48.0
48.2
48.3
48.7
49.5
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov p.
0.9
1 Money stock components (see Table B-57) after deducting foreign holdings and holdings by domestic financial institutions. The three columns add to M2 held by domestic nonfinancial sectors.
2
As published in money stock statistics.
3
Series E and H savings bonds, other savings bonds, and savings notes held by individuajs.
4
Short-term marketable U.S. Treasury securities excluding official, foreign, and financial institution holdings.
6
Certificates over $100,000 at weekly reporting banks, except foreign holdings.
6
Commercial paper, bankers' acceptances, Federal funds, security repurchase agre<
[reements, and money market mutual
fund shares held outside banks and other financial institutions.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
255
TABLE B-60.—Total funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors, 1968-76
[Billions of dollars]
Item
U.S. Government.
Public debt securities
Agency issues and mortgages.
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
98.3
Total funds raised
1968
93.5
100.7
151.0
176.9
197.6
188.8
210.4
13.6
-3.7
11.9
24.7
15.2
8.3
12.0
85.2
10.5
3.1
-1.3
-2.4
12.9
-1.0
26.0
-1.3
14.3
1.0
7.9
12.0
-.0
85.8
-.6
15.3
13.0
2.8
ForeignCorporate equities.
Debt instruments. _
Private domestic nonfinancial sectorsCorporate equities.
Debt instruments...
Debt capital instruments..
State and local government obligations
Corporate bonds
Mortgages
Home.
Multi-family residential
Commercial
Farm
Other debt instruments..
Consumer credit
Bank loans n.e.c. . . .
Open-market paper.
Other
By borrowing sector: Total.
State and local governments.
Households..
Nonfinancial business
Farm
Nonfarm noncorporate...
Corporate
Total funds advanced to nonfinancial sectors
3.7
2.7
5.2
4.0
.2
2.7
.5
.1
2.7
.0
5.2
-.4
4.4
81.9
93.5
121.1
157.7
-.2
82.1
3.4
90.1
5.7
80.4
11.4
109.7
10.9
146.8
51.8
52.5
60.2
86.8
9.5
12.9
29.4
17.3
3.4
6.6
2.2
9.9
12.0
30.6
18.1
4.9
5.7
1.8
11.2
19.8
29.2
14.4
6.9
7.1
30.2
37.6
10.0
13.8
1.5
5.0
.4
6.2
-.2
15.5
12! 8
183.1
7.9
175.3
161.6
112.2
4.1
157.5
9.9
102.3
102.8
106.7
101.2
101.3
17.5
18.8
50.5
28.6
9.7
9.8
2.4
15.4
12.2
75.2
42.6
12.7
16.4
3.6
16.3
9.2
81.2
46.4
10.4
18.9
5.5
19.6
19.7
61.9
34.6
7.0
15.1
5.1
17.3
27.2
56.8
40.8
20.1
22.8
44.0
68.6
56.3
1.0
10.4
15.5
1.8
9.9
5.9
6.7
2.6
5.0
11.6
6.5
-.4
5.1
18.6
18.1
.8
6.5
21.7
34.8
2.5
9.6
9.8
26.2
6.8
13.5
8.5
-14.5
-2.2
9.1
81.9
93.5
86.1
121.1
157.7
183.1
161.6
112.2
9.8
32.1
40.0
2.8
5.3
31.9
10.7
33.8
48.9
3.1
7.5
38.4
11.3
25.3
49.4
2.3
5.7
41.5
17.8
42.1
61.2
4.5
10.3
46.4
15.2
64.8
77.7
5.8
13.1
58.8
14.8
73.5
94.8
9.7
12.3
72.9
18.6
45.2
97.8
7.9
6.7
83.1
14.9
49.7
47.6
9.4
1.2
37.1
98.3
93.5
100.7
151.0
176.9
197.6
188.8
210.4
61.6
46.9
64.0
87.0
120.1
134.8
123.3
146.5
48.5
5.1
64.2
92.8
105.3
90.3
75.7
96.7
14.8
33.7
20.7
13.0
7.3
-2.2
-10.6
8.4
8.9
55.3
38.7
16.6
13.7
79.1
39.5
39.6
21.6
83.7
38.3
45.4
14.1
76.2
47.8
28.4
8.3
67.4
45.0
22.4
11.9
84.8
25.7
59.2
13.2
41.8
-.2
-5.8
14.8
44.5
47.6
49.8
8.6
17.5
- 7 . 1 -10.8
4.2
19.4
17.9
23.0
11.9
-6.5
.8
27.2
-4.5
-1.6
6.8
-.8
-.9
10.9
-3.7
2.1
19.5
-4.5
4.3
27.8
-6.9
-4.2
30.1
-1.2
-.8
30.7
-1.8
2.2
5.1
2.6
2.5
11.0
9.6
1.3
2.8
-8.1
10.9
23.3
-3.9
27.2
16.1
5.3
10.8
10.5
6.9
3.6
26.3
14.5
11.7
10.3
-.4
10.7
-1.2
5.2
.5
3.1
2.8
2.8
3.2
2.8
-.3
1.8
-1.7
2.8
-4.6
2.9
15.1
18.9
8.6
19.7
12.4
21.9
6.4
24.4
10.3
26.1
13.0
30.6
20.5
33.2
40.0
-4.4
-.2
6.4
10! 9
5.2
Financed directly or indirectly by:
Private domestic nonfinancial sectors
Deposits
Demand deposits and currency..
Time and savings accounts
At commercial banks..
At savings institutions
Credit market instruments, n e t
U.S. Government securities
Private credit market instruments
Corporate equities
Less security debt
Other sources :
Foreign funds.
At banks..
Direct
Change in U.S. Government cash
balance
U.S. Government loans
Private insurance and pension reserves
Other
See footnotes at end of table.
256
TABLE B- 60.—Total funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors, 1968—76—Continued
[Billions of dollars]
1976 unadjusted
quarterly flows
1976 seasonally
adjusted annual rates
Item
III
III
50.8
Public debt securities
Corporate equities
250.3
258.8
73.4
74.2
78.9
9.4
-.0
17.3
.2
73.4
-.0
74.4
-.2
78.1
.8
4.6
3.6
16.6
14.7
18.0
.1
3.6
Agency issues and mortgages
Foreign
233.6
18.0
3.7
r
62.2
9.4
24.1
-.0
U.S. Government
63.5
24.1
Total funds raised
.1
4.6
.1
3.6
.4
16.2
.2
14.5
161.4
161.8
17] 8
23.0
State and local government obligations
Corporate bonds
Mortgages
Home
Multi-family
Commercial
Farm
Other debt instruments
Consumer credit
Bank loans n.e.c
Open-market paper
Other
By borrowing sector: Total
12.6
131.0
14.0
147.4
6.1
155.7
33.1
30.5
105.3
118.3
118.6
7.3
5.0
20.9
15.4
.2
3.4
1.9
4.7
3.9
21.8
16.6
.7
3.1
1.5
8.1
25.8
71.4
53.6
1.3
10.3
6.1
28.6
15.5
74.2
55.2
L9
1.5
Debt capital instruments
1.5
39.1
1.8
6.5
14.9
11.3
Debt instruments
40.6
3.5
46.1
23.2
Corporate equities
49.6
3.2
19.9
Debt instruments
Private domestic nonfinancial sectors
143.6
12! 7
5.8
18.0
18.1
82.4
61.9
2.5
11.5
6.5
-3.3
25.7
29.1
37.2
6.5
-.2
-.4
2.7
18.1
-16.4
7.5
16.5
20.6
-9.0
8.8
8.6
19.2
7.3
-3.9
14.6
49.6
40.6
143.6
161.4
161.8
2.8
9.2
11.0
2.6
-.4
8.9
5.5
20.6
23.5
4.6
2.2
16.7
5.0
23.1
12.6
3.2
1.7
7.7
12.0
71.1
60.5
10.7
4.4
45.4
21.4
74.6
65.5
11.3
6.0
48.1
18.9
87.0
56.0
11.8
6.2
38.0
50.8
63.5
62.2
233.6
250.3
258.8
30.6
39.5
28.5
153.7
156.0
16.3
27.4
14.0
109.4
-12.7
29.0
7.4
21.6
7.6
19.8
4.4
15.4
7.6
73.2
15.3
57.9
-3.2
111.0
40.3
70.7
12.1
-7.8
21.7
7.3
14.5
14.6
17.9
91.4
17.4
74.0
14.4
44.3
75.3
44.4
9.0
6.0
-.4
.3
3.1
10.3
.4
1.7
9.8
6.8
-1.3
.7
22.2
30.9
-7.7
1.2
36.9
41.2
3.8
6.7
26.9
28.1
-7.9
2.7
2.6
-2.4
5.0
5.0
2.0
3.0
3.7
g
4'. 5
15.2
-7.9
23.2
19.9
7.8
12.1
8.9
-2.0
10.9
-.7
2.8
12.0
3.6
Total funds advanced to nonfinancial sectors
8.7
6.8
2.2
1.6
2.3
23.0
State and local governments
Households
Nonfinancial business
Farm
Nonfarm noncorporate
Corporate
12.9
-1.1
-8.5
1.6
4.7
6.9
.2
10.9
1.2
1.4
3.3
11.0
14.3
.2
12.0
47.9
4.7
21.4
—.2
43.7
9.5
3.3
12.1
43.9
38.5
Financed directly or indirectly by:
Private domestic nonfinancial sectors
Deposits
Demand deposits and currency
Time and savings accounts.
At commercial banks.
At savings institutions
Credit market instruments, net
U.S. Government securities
Private credit market instruments
Corporate equities
Less security debt
152.2
107.7
Other sources:
Foreign funds
At banks
Direct
Change in U.S. Government cash balance
U.S. Government loans
Private insurance and pension reserves
Other
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
257
TABLE B-61.—Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 1929-76
[Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars)
Reserve Bank credit outstanding
Year and month
Total
1929:
1933:
1939:
1940:
1941:
1942:
1943:
1944:
1945:
19461947:
1948:
1949:
1950:
1951:
1952:
1953:
1954:
1955:
1956:
1957:
1958:
1959:
1960:
19611962:
1963:
19641965:
1966:
19671968:
196919701971:
1972:
1973:
1974:
1975:
1976:
1975:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec.
Dec
Dec
Dec. .
Dec
Dec
Dec
. . . .
Dec
.
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
. . .
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec v
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug .
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1976: Jan
Feb . . .
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept...
Oct
Nov
Dec p
1,643
2,669
2,612
2 305
2,404
6,035
11 914
19,612
24, 744
24 746
22,858
23,978
19,012
21,606
25,446
27 299
27,107
26,317
26,853
27,156
26,186
28,412
29,435
29,060
31,217
33, 218
36,610
39 873
43,853
46,864
51,268
56,610
64,100
66,708
74,255
76,851
85,642
93,967
99, 651
107, 757
93,002
91,168
90, 819
93,214
97,845
95,119
94,144
92, 395
95,277
96,931
97,817
99,651
100,172
101, 369
101,336
100, 317
102,951
103,106
104, 799
105, 393
105, 880
107, 270
106, 522
107, 757
U.S.
Government securities
446
2,432
2,510
2 188
2*219
5 549
11 166
18 693
23, 708
23 767
21 905
23,002
18, 287
20 345
23,409
24 400
25 639
24,917
24,602
24 765
23,982
26 312
27,036
27,248
29 098
30,546
33,729
37 126
40, 885
43,760
48 891
52, 529
57, 500
61 688
69,158
71,094
79,701
86,679
92,108
100, 328
86,039
84,744
84, 847
87,080
91,918
88,912
88,166
86, 829
89,191
90,476
90,934
92,108
92, 998
94, 610
94, 880
93, 243
95,967
95, 592
97,105
98, 458
98, 797
100, 374
99,507
100, 328
Member bank reserves
Member bank
borrowings
Total
Seasonal
All
other,
mainly
float
801
396
95
3
3
142
99
114
5
180
482
658
654
702
822
729
4
90
265
334
157
224
134
842
607
1,119
1,380
1,306
1,027
1,154
1,412
1,703
1,494
118
142
657
1 593
441
246
839
688
710
557
906
87
149
304
327
243
454
557
238
765
1,086
321
107
1,049
1,298
703
127
62
390
147
106
110
60
271
261
211
396
191
61
127
79
76
58
44
121
120
123
104
75
66
84
62
1
2
41
32
13
13
13
10
7
9
11
17
38
61
65
28
13
9
11
8
11
11
20
24
28
31
32
21
13
1,543
1,493
1,725
1,970
2,368
2,554
2,504
2,514
2,547
2,139
3,316
5,514
4,699
4,990
4,708
4,643
6,585
7,416
7,367
6,573
6,277
5,866
6,024
5,867
5,936
5,717
5,355
5,690
6,264
6,822
7,416
7,095
6,683
6,398
7,030
6,863
7,394
7,571
6,831
7,008
6,830
6,931
7,367
Total
2 395
2,588
11,473
14 049
12 812
13,152
12 749
14 168
16 027
16 517
17,261
19,990
16, 291
17,391
20,310
21,180
19,920
19, 279
19,240
19, 535
19,420
18, 899
2 18,932
19,283
20,118
20,040
20, 746
21,609
22, 719
23,830
25,260
27,221
28, 031
29,265
31,329
'31,353
3 35,068
3 36,941
* 34, 989
35, 258
37,492
35,565
34,779
35,134
34, 492
34,976
34,655
34,482
34,646
34, 567
34, 571
«34, 989
35, 575
33,953
33,967
34,063
34, 228
33,774
34,146
34,141
33,979
34, 305
34,797
35, 258
Required
2 347
11,822
6,462
7 403
9 422
10 776
11 701
12 884
14, 536
15 617
16 275
19,193
15,488
16, 364
19,484
20,457
19,227
18, 576
18,646
18,883
18,843
18, 383
18,450
18, 527
19, 550
19,468
20,210
21,198
22,267
23,438
24,915
26,766
27, 774
28,993
31,164
31,134
34,806
36, 602
34,727
34, 967
37, 556
35, 333
34, 513
35,014
34,493
34, 428
34,687
34, 265
34,447
34,411
34,281
34, 727
35, 366
33,939
33, 531
33,974
33, 846
33,657
34, 076
33, 844
33,692
34,116
34,433
34,967
Excess
48
1766
5,011
6 646
3
2
1
1
1
390
376
048
284
491
900
986
797
803
1 027
826
723
693
703
594
652
577
516
482
756
568
572
536
411
452
392
345
455
257
272
165
3219
3 262
3 339
<262
291
-64
232
266
120
-1
548
-32
217
199
156
290
4 262
209
14
436
89
382
117
70
297
287
189
364
291
Data are for licensed banks only.
Beginning December 1959, total reserves held include vault cash allowed.
3 Beginning November 1972, includes $450 million of reserve deficiencies on which Federal Reserve Banks were allowed
to waive penalties for a transition period in connection with bank adaptation to Regulation J as amended effective November 9,1972. Beginning 1973, allowable deficiencies included are (beginning with first statement week of quarter): first
quarter, $279 million; second quarter, $17? million; third quarter, $112 million; fourth quarter, $84 million. Beginning
1974 allowable deficiencies included are: first quarter, $67 million and second quarter, $58 million. Transition period
ended after second quarter 1974.
4
Effective November 1975 includes reserve deficiencies on which penalties are waived over a 24-month period when a
nonmember bank merges into an existing member bank, or when a nonmember bank joins the Federal Reserve System.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
258
T A B L E B—62.—Aggregate reserves and member bank deposits, 1959—76
[Averages of daily figures; 1 billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Deposits subject to reserve requirements3
Member bank reserves 2
Year and
month
Total
Nonborrowed
Required
Total
Time
and
savings
Demand
Private
U.S. Government
Total
member
bank
deposits
plus
nondeposit
items *
1959: Dec
i960: Dec
1961: Dec
1962: Dec
1963: Dec
1964: Dec
18.63
18.92
19.75
19.66
20.31
21.19
17.68
18.84
19.61
19.40
19.98
20.92
18.12
18.17
19.16
19.08
19.82
20.78
158.2
162.5
175.5
189.0
203.2
218.7
54.3
58.8
67.7
79.9
92.1
103.7
99.0
99.1
102.9
103.3
105.9
109.1
4.8
4.6
4.9
5.7
5.2
5.9
158.2
162.5
175.5
189.0
203.4
220.1
1965:
1966:
1967:
1968:
1969:
Dec
Dec
Dec.
Dec
Dec
22.18
23.28
24.76
27.05
27.93
21.74
22.75
24.53
26.30
26.81
21.76
22.94
24.38
26.62
27.65
238.3
246.3
275.6
299.7
287.5
120.7
128.7
148.9
164.5
150.5
112.8
113.9
121.2
130.4
131.9
4.9
3.7
5.5
4.9
5.2
239.9
250.4
280.0
306.8
306.8
1970: Dec
1971: Dec
1972: Dec...
1973: Dec
1974: Dec
29.11
31.24
31.44
34.98
36.63
28.77
31.12
30.39
33.69
35.90
28.86
31.06
31.16
34.68
36.37
320.8
360.1
402.3
442.8
486.9
178.8
210.5
241.7
279.7
322.9
135.9
143.7
154.4
158.1
160.6
6.2
5.8
6.2
5.0
3.4
332.9
365.0
406.6
449.4
495.3
1975: Dec
1976: Dec *
34.75
35.02
34.62
34.97
34.49
34 72
506.0
530.1
338.7
355.5
164.4
171.3
3.0
3.2
514.4
539.2
_ _.
36.37
35.49
34.99
35.08
34.74
35.07
35.97
35.34
34.88
34.97
34.67
34.85
36.22
35.30
34.79
34.92
34.58
34.87
490.1
490.9
493.4
494.1
493.7
499.5
328.2
329.1
329.2
329.7
328.6
330.5
159.3
159.9
161.7
161.7
162.6
165.8
2.6
1.9
2.5
2.7
2.5
3.2
497.7
497.4
499.9
500.8
501.2
506.5
„
34.98
34.88
34.99
34.79
34.73
34.75
34.68
34.67
34.59
34.60
34.67
34.62
34.79
34.69
34.80
34.58
34.44
34.49
498.3
496.3
498.4
500.1
505.9
506.0
330.8
328.4
329.8
333.1
336.1
338.7
164.9
165.1
165.6
164.0
165.9
164.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.9
3.0
505.1
503.3
505.5
508.0
514.1
514.4
34.32
34.05
34.00
34.02
34.14
34.34
34.24
33.97
33.95
33.98
34.02
34.21
34.08
33.83
33.78
33.87
33.93
34.12
506.2
507.6
507.8
509.8
507.8
513.9
338.9
339.5
339.4
340.2
338.3
342.3
164.7
165.5
165.8
167.2
167.2
167.9
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.3
3.7
514.1
515.6
516.0
517.3
515.3
522.3
34.39
34.52
34.36
34.49
34.88
35.02
34.25
34.42
34.30
34.39
34.81
34.97
34.15
34.32
34.16
34.27
34.62
34.72
514.9
513.6
515.3
519.6
525.3
530.1
344.2
341.1
342.6
345.9
350.0
355.5
168.0
168.7
168.9
170.3
170.8
171.3
2.7
3.9
3.8
3.4
4.5
3.2
523.6
522.5
523.5
528.6
534.4
539.2
1975:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1976:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec v
.
..
. _
. _
* Except as noted in footnote 4.
2
Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the
effect of changes in Regulations D and M.
3
Deposits subject to reserve requirements include total time and sayings deposits and net demand deposits as defined
by Regulation D. Private demand deposits include all demand deposits except those due to the U.S. Government, less
cash items in process of collection and demand balances due from domestic commercial banks.
* Total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, plus Eurodollar borrowings, loans sold to bank-related
institutions (data relate to Wednesday figures), and certain other nondeposit items. This series for deposits is referred to
as "the adjusted bank credit proxy."
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
259
TABLE B-63.—Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-76
[Percent per annum]
U.S. Government securities
Year or month 3-month
3-5
Treasyear 2 Taxable
bonds 3
ury
bills i issues
Corporate
bonds
(Moody's)
Aaa
Baa
Average
High- rate on Prime
grade
shortcommunicterm
meripal
bank
cial
bonds
loans
(Stand- to busi- paper,
4-6
ard & n e s s Poor's) selected months
cities
Discount
rate,
Federal
Reserve
Bank
of New
York*
Federal
funds
rate*
Newhome
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)
(«)
4.73
5.90
4.27
5.85
5 16
1933
0.515
2.66
4.49
7.76
4.71
1.73
2.56
1939
.023
.59
3.01
4.96
2.76
2.1
.59
1.00
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
.014
.103
.326
.373
.375
.50
.73
1 46
1.34
1.33
2.46
2.47
2.48
2.84
2.77
2.83
2.73
2.72
4.75
4.33
4.28
3.91
3.61
2.50
2.10
2.36
2.06
1.86
2.1
2.0
2.2
2.6
2.4
.56
.53
.66
.69
.73
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
.375
.375
.594
1.040
1.102
1.18
1.16
1.32
1 62
1.43
2.37
2.19
2.25
2.44
2.31
2.62
2.53
2.61
2.82
2.66
3.29
3.05
3.24
3.47
3.42
1.67
1.64
2.01
2.40
2.21
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.68
.75
.81
1.03
1.44
1.49
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1.218
1.552
1.766
1.931
.953
1 50
1.93
2 13
2.56
1.82
2.32
2.57
2.68
2.94
2.55
2.62
2.86
2.96
3.20
2.90
3.24
3.41
3.52
3.74
3.51
1.98
2.00
2.19
2.72
2.37
2.69
3.11
3.49
3.69
3.61
1.45
2.16
2.33
2.52
1.58
1 59
1.75
1 75
1.99
1.60
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1 753
2.658
3.267
1.839
3.405
2 50
3.12
3.62
2 90
4.33
2.84
3.08
3.47
3.43
4.07
3.06
3.36
3.89
3.79
4.38
3.53
3.88
4.71
4.73
5.05
2.53
2.93
3.60
3.56
3.95
3.70
4.20
4.62
4.34
»5.00
2.18
3.31
3.81
2.46
3.97
1 89
2.77
3.12
2.15
3.36
1.78
2.73
3.11
1.57
3.30
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
2.928
2 378
2.778
3.157
3.549
3.99
3 60
3.57
3.72
4.06
4.01
3.90
3.95
4.00
4.15
4.41
4.35
4.33
4.26
4.40
5.19
5.08
5.02
4.86
4.83
3.73
3.46
3.18
3.23
3.22
5.16
4.97
5.00
5.01
4.99
3.85
2.97
3.26
3.55
3.97
3.53
3 00
3.00
3.23
3.55
3.22
1.96
2.68
3.18
3.50
5.93
5.86
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
3.954
4.881
4.321
5.339
6.677
4.22
5.16
5.07
5.59
6.85
4.21
4.66
4.85
5.25
6.10
4.49
5.13
5.51
6.18
7.03
4.87
5.67
6.23
6.94
7.81
3.27
3.82
3.98
4.51
5.81
5.06
6.00
»6.00
6.68
8.21
4.38
5.55
5.10
5.90
7.83
4.04
4.50
4.19
5.17
5.87
4.07
5.11
4.22
5.66
8.21
5.81
6.25
6.46
6.97
7.81
1970...
1971
..
1972
1973
1974
6.458
4.348
4.071
7.041
7.886
7.37
5.77
5.85
6.92
7.81
6.59
5.74
5.63
6.30
6.99
8.04
7.39
7.21
7.44
8.57
9.11
8.56
8.16
8.24
9.50
6.51
5.70
5.27
5.18
6.09
8.48
8 6.32
5.82
8.30
11.28
7.72
5.11
4.69
8.15
9.87
5.95
4.88
4.50
6.45
7.83
7.17
4.67
4.44
8.74
10.51
8.45
7.74
7.60
7.95
8.92
1975
1976
5.838
4.989
7.55
6.94
6.98
6.78
8.83 10.61
8.43 9.75
6.89
6.49
8.65
7.52
6.33
5.35
6.25
5.50
5.82
5.05
9.01
8.99
1929
.
See next page for continuation of table and for footnotes.
260
1.00
1.00
7
1 00
7
1.00
7
1.00
7
1.00
7
1.00
1.00
1 34
1.50
TABLE B-63.—Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-76—Continued
[Percent per annum]
U.S. Government securities
Year or month
Corporate
bonds
(Moody's)
3-month
3-5
Taxable
Treasyear
bondss
ury
issues2
bills i
Aaa
Baa
Average
Highrate on
DisPrime
Newgrade
shortcount
comhome
municterm
rate,
merFederal mortipal
bank
Federal
cial
gage
bonds
loans
Reserve funds
rates
yields
(Stand- to busi- paper,
Bank
4-6
(FHLBB)
ard &
nessof New
Poor's) selected months York*
cities
1974: Jan .
Feb
Mar
Apr . . .
May
June
7.755
7.060
7.986
8.229
8.430
8.145
6.94
6.77
7.33
7.99
8.24
8.14
6.56
6.54
6.81
7.04
7.07
7.03
7.83
7.85
8.01
8.25
8.37
8.47
8.48
8.53
8.62
8.87
9.05
9.27
5.20
5.19
5.36
5.67
5.96
6.08
July
Aug _ .
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
7.752
8.744
8.363
7.244
7.585
7.179
8.39
8.64
8.38
7.98
7.65
7.22
7.18
7.33
7.30
7.22
6.93
6.78
8.72
9.00
9.24
9.27
8.90
8.89
9.48
9.77
10.18
10.48
10.60
10.63
6.54
6.58
6.65
6.46
6.47
6.93
6.493
5.583
5 544
5.694
5.315
5.193
7.29
6.85
7.00
7.76
7.49
7.26
6.68
6.61
6.73
7.03
6.99
6.86
8.83
8.62
8.67
8.95
8.90
8.77
10.81
10.65
10.48
10.58
10.69
10.62
6.66
6.30
6.61
6.83
6.81
6.76
6.164
6.463
6 383
6.081
5.468
5 504
7.72
8.12
8.22
7.80
7.51
7.50
6.89
7.06
7.29
7.29
7.21
7.17
8.84
8.95
8.95
8.86
8.78
8.79
10.55
10.59
10 61
10. 62
10.56
10.56
6.94
7.02
7.23
7.22
7.21
7.06
1976-Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June.
4.961
4.852
5.047
4.878
5.185
5.443
7.18
7.18
7.25
6.99
7.35
7.40
6.94
6.92
6.87
6.73
6.99
6.92
8.60 10.41
8.55 10.24
8.52 10.12
8.40 9.94
8.58 9.86
8.62 9.89
6.80
6.91
6.86
6.62
6.87
6.85
July
Aug
Sept.
Oct
5.278
5.153
5.075
4.930
4.810
4.354
7.24
7.04
6.84
6.50
6.35
5.96
6.85
6.79
6.70
6.65
6.62
6.39
8.56
8.45
8.38
8.32
8.25
7.98
6.64
6.28
6.20
6.06
6.05
5.69
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov .
Dec
Nov
Dec
.
9.82
9.64
9.40
9.29
9.23
9.12
9.91
11.15
12.40
11.64
9.94
8.16
8.22
8.29
7.54
7.44
7.80
7.28
8.66
7.83
8.42
9.79
10 62
10.96
1}4-8
8-8
8 -8
11.72
11.65
11.23
9.36
8.81
8.98
8
8
8
8
8
8
2
9.65
8.97
9.35
10.51
11 31
11.93
8 52
8.62
8.64
8 67
8 74
8.85
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-7%
12.92
12.01
11 34
10.06
9.45
8.53
8.96
9 09
9 19
9 17
9.27
9 37
7.30
6.33
6.06
6.15
5.82
5.79
7l/-&/i
6^-634
634-614
6y~6
6 -6
7.13
6.24
5 54
5.49
5.22
5.55
9 33
9 12
9 06
8 96
8 90
8.96
6.44
6.70
6 86
6.48
5.91
5.97
6
6
6
6
6
6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
6.10
6.14
6.24
5.82
5.22
5.20
8.89
8.89
8 94
9 01
9 01
9 01
5.27
5.23
5.37
5.23
5.54
5.94
6 -53^
4.87
4.77
4.84
4 82
5.29
5.48
8 99
8 93
8 93
8 92
8.97
8.89
5.31
5.29
5.25
5.03
4.95
4.65
8 97
9.02
9.08
9 07
9.05
9.10
5.67
5.47
5.45
5.22
5.05
4.70
iy-iy2
by-by
bV-b\4
by-bVo
im%
ly-ly2
by~bY
1
2
Rate on new issues within period. First issued in December 1929.
Selected note and bond issues.
s First issued in 1941. Series includes bonds which are neither due nor callable before a given number of years as
follows: April 1953 to date, 10 years; April 1952-March 1953,12 years; November 1941-March 1952, 15 years.
4
Average effective rate for the year; opening and closing rate for the month.
5
Based on seven-day averages of daily effective rates for weeks ending Wednesday. Since July 19,1975, the daily effective
rate is an average of the rates on a given day weighted by the volume of transactions at these rates. Prior to that date,
the daily effective rate was the rate considered most representative of the day's transactions, usually the one at which
most transactions occurred.
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate
and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with
prior rates.
7
From October 30, 1942, to April 24, 1946, a preferential rate of 0.50 percent was in effect for advances secured by
Government securities maturing in 1 year or jess.
« Series revised. Not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank
Board (FHLBB), Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
261
TABLE B-64,—Instalment credit extensions and liquidations,
1971-76l
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Revolving
Year or month
Total
Automobile
Mobile
home
Home
improvement
Bank
credit
card
Bank
check
credit
All
other
Extensions:
34,778
40,266
46,105
43,209
48,103
55,439
2,628
5,036
6,011
4,899
3,452
3,101
1975: Jan..
Feb._
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June..
123,086
140,072
160,228
160,008
163,483
185,900
12,435
12,937
12, 593
12,837
13,022
13,187
3,444
4,002
3,637
3,612
3,699
3,865
307
271
275
280
281
270
3,170
3,915
4,414
4,571
4,398
5,038
334
333
354
336
350
373
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
1976: Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May..
June..
14,089
14,048
14,194
14,609
14, 579
15,228
15,132
15,045
15, 521
15,003
15, 041
15, 592
4,104
4,143
4,330
4,354
4,441
4,642
284
268
292
289
345
313
4,505
4,523
4,689
4,583
4,471
4,600
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec 2 ..
15, 240
15,685
15, 775
16,055
15, 763
16, 275
Liquidations:
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
19762.
1975: Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May..
June..
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
19762...
8,377
10, 390
13,863
17, 098
20,428
25, 493
2,026
2,489
3,373
4,227
4,024
4,823
72,107
77,976
86,462
86,004
83,079
92,006
6,435
6,440
6,428
6,662
6,780
6,700
1,585
1,570
1,585
1,627
1,600
1,678
330
322
314
320
313
302
372
371
382
384
408
421
1,684
1,743
1,806
1,781
1,842
1,839
336
342
339
352
341
396
272
266
296
247
231
272
440
405
414
413
385
410
1,921
2,012
2,118
1,985
2,103
2,088
361
392
380
394
422
435
7,309
7,181
7,045
7,450
7,203
7,618
7,633
7,447
7,624
7,382
7,429
7,786
4,477
4,712
4,769
4,587
4,632
4,820
282
240
253
236
261
255
381
400
434
463
464
470
2,152
2,183
2,165
2,198
2,181
2,245
401
413
375
413
410
435
7,546
7,737
7,779
8,158
7,815
8,050
113,788
124, 513
140, 552
151,056
156,640
169,463
12, 581
12,621
12, 860
12,820
13, 325
12, 738
31, 303
34,705
40,137
42,883
45, 472
48,311
3,622
3,657
3,873
3,748
3,777
3,727
1,751
2,905
3,634
4,099
3,793
3,792
308
313
307
305
316
312
2,939
3,238
3,381
3,767
4,150
4,249
368
334
349
347
341
359
7,679
9,472
12, 433
15,655
19,208
23, 754
1,901
2,175
2,894
3,684
4,010
4,636
334
334
335
331
343
330
68,215
72,017
78,072
80,969
80,007
84,719
6,511
6,499
6,481
6,564
7,019
6,456
July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec—
1976: Jan...
Feb...
MarApr...
May..
June..
12,803
13.211
13,201
13,429
13,255
13, 738
14, 029
13,923
14, 048
13, 576
13,566
14, 261
3,719
3,884
3,869
3,860
3,835
3,883
3,966
3,909
4,026
3,851
3,819
4,074
314
317
306
329
322
344
364
353
314
309
286
315
321
328
334
356
334
353
1,591
1,634
1,670
1,696
1,762
1,832
6,539
6,721
6,702
6,864
6,667
6,940
331
348
344
374
314
330
1,815
1,881
1,926
1,846
1,911
1,990
319
327
320
324
336
386
372
374
364
359
378
421
7,181
7,058
7,074
6,836
6,859
7,132
July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec 2..
13,937
14, 282
14,294
14,491
14, 520
14,670
3,922
4,090
4,165
4,059
4,155
4,190
319
292
322
307
320
315
362
361
369
390
360
370
1,981
2,097
2,000
2,074
2,110
2,105
374
419
358
386
404
425
6,979
7,023
7,081
7,274
7,170
7,265
1,438
1,483
1,515
1,527
1,529
1,555
1 Excludes 30-day charge credit held by retailers, oil and gas companies, and travel and entertainment companies.
Preliminary; December by Council of Economic Advisers.
Note.—Consumer instalment credit consists of short-and intermediate-term credit extended through regular business
channels to finance the purchase of goods and services for personal consumption, or to refinance debts incurred for such
purposes, and scheduled to be repaid in two or more instalments. Mortgage credit is excluded.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted).
2
262
TABLE B-65.—Mortgage debt outstanding by type of property and of financing, 1939-76
[Billions of dollars]
r
^onfarm r.)ropertie;
Nonfarm properties by type of mortgage
Conventional2
Government underwritten
End of year
or quarter
All
properties
Farm
properties
Total
Multi- Com1- to 4- family mercial
family
houses prop- properties erties i
1- to 4-family houses
Total
Total
1939
35.5
FHA
insured
VA
guaranteed
Total
1- to 4family
houses
6.6
28.9
16.3
5.6
7.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
27.1
14.5
17.4
18.4
18.2
17.8
17.9
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.6
6.9
7.0
6.7
6.3
6.2
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2
27.7
28.2
27.1
25.8
25.5
15.1
15.4
14.5
13.7
13.7
1940
1941.
1942
1943
1944
36.5
37.6
36.7
35.3
34.7
6.5
6.4
6.0
5.4
4.9
30.0
31.2
30.8
29.9
29.7
1945..
1946
1947.
1948
1949..
35.5
41.8
48.9
56.2
62.7
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.6
30.8
36.9
43.9
50.9
57.1
18.6
23.0
28.2
33.3
37.6
5.7
6.1
6.6
7.5
8.6
6.4
7.7
9.1
10.2
10.8
4.3
6.3
9.8
13.6
17.1
4.3
6.1
9.3
12.5
15.0
4.1
3.7
3.8
5.3
6.9
0.2
2.4
5.5
7.2
8.1
26.5
30.6
34.1
37.3
40.0
14.3
16.9
18.9
20.8
22.6
1950
1951..
1952
1953
1954
72.8
82.3
91.4
101.3
113.7
6.1
6.7
7.2
7.7
8.2
66.7
75.6
84.2
93.6
105.4
45.2
51.7
58.5
66.1
75.7
10.1
11.5
12.3
12.9
13.5
11.5
12.5
13.4
14.5
16.3
22.1
26.6
29.3
32.1
36.2
18.9
22.9
25.4
28.1
32.1
8.6
9.7
10.8
12.0
12.8
10.3
13.2
14.6
16.1
19.3
44.6
49.0
54.9
61.5
69.2
26.3
28.8
33.1
38.0
43.6
129.9
144.5
156.5
171.8
190.8
9.0
9.8
10.4
11.1
12.1
120.9
134.6
146.1
160.7
178.7
88.2
99.0
107.6
117.7
130.9
14.3
14.9
15.3
16.8
18.7
18.3
20.7
23.2
26.1
29.2
42.9
47.8
51.6
55.1
59.3
38.9
43.9
47.2
50.1
53.8
14.3
15.5
16.5
19.7
23.8
24.6
28.4
30.7
30.4
30.0
78.0
86.8
94.6
105.5
119.4
49.3
55.1
60.4
67.6
77.0
207.5
228.0
251.4
278.5
305.9
12.8
13.9
15.2
16.8
18.9
194.7
214.1
236.2
261.7
287.0
141.9
154.7
169.3
186.4
203.4
20.3
23.0
25.8
29.0
33.6
32.4
36.4
41.1
46.2
50.0
62.3
65.6
69.4
73.4
77.2
56.4
59.1
62.2
65.9
69.2
26.7
29.5
32.3
35.0
38.3
29.7
29.6
29.9
30.9
30.9
132.3
148.5
166.9
188.2
209.8
85.5
95.6
107.1
120.5
134.1
333.3
356.5
381.2
410 9
441.4
21.2
23.1
25.1
27 4
29.2
312.1
333.4
356.1
383.5
412.2
220.5
232.9
247.3
264.8
282.8
37.2
40.3
43.9
47.3
52.3
54.5
60.1
64.8
71.4
77.1
81.2
84.1
88.2
93.4
100.2
73.1
76.1
79.9
84.4
90.2
42.0
44.8
47.4
50.6
54.5
31.1
31.3
32.5
33.8
35.7
231.0
249.3
267.9
290 1
312.0
147.4
156.9
167.4
180.4
192.7
474.2
526.5
603.4
682.3
742.5
30.3
32.2
35.8
41.3
46.3
443.8
494.3
567.7
641.1
696.2
298.1
328.9
372.8
416.9
449.9
60.1
69.8
82.6
92.9
99.9
85.6
95.5
112.3
131.3
146.4
109.2
120.7
131.1
135.0
140.2
97.3
105.2
113.0
116.2
121.3
59.9
65.7
68.2
66.2
65.1
37.3
39.5
44.7
50.0
56.2
334.6
373.5
436.5
506.0
556.0
200.9
223.7
259.8
300.6
328.6
1975...
801.5
50.9
750.7
491.7
100.3
158.6
147.0
127.7
66.1
61.6
603.7
364.0
1974: 1
II . _
Ill
IV
696.8
717.0
731.9
742.5
42.1
43.8
45.2
46.3
654.7
673.2
686.7
696.2
424.7
436.5
444.7
449.9
95.1
96.9
98.6
99.9
135.0
139.8
143.4
146.4
136.6
137.7
138.7
140.2
117.7
118.4
119.7
121.3
66.0
65.5
65.1
65.1
51.7
52.9
54.5
56.2
518.1
535.5
548.1
556.0
307.0
318.1
325.1
328.6
1975: 1
II
III
IV
752.2
768.6
785.4
801.5
47.6
49.2
50.2
50.9
704.6
719.4
735.2
750.7
455.2
467.4
480.0
491.7
100.5
100.4
100.5
100.3
148.9
151.6
154.7
158.6
142.0
142.9
145.0
147.0
123.3
123.7
125.7
127.7
65.5
65.8
65.9
66.1
57.7
58.0
59.8
61.6
562.6
576.4
590.2
603.7
332.0
343.6
354.3
364.0
1976: 1
II
III
817.4
839.2
861.7
52.4
54.2
55.7
765.1
784.9
806.0
503.4
519.6
536.6
•100.7
101.0
101.8
161.0
164.4
167.5
148.3
150.5
129.1
131.2
66.2
67.1
62.9
64.1
616.8
634.4
374.3
388.4
1955
1956
1957..
1958
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962
1963
1964 .
1965
1966 . .
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972 .
1973
1974 ..
. .
_.
..
....
i Includes negligible amount of farm loans held by savings and loan associations.
» Derived figures.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, estimated and compiled from data supplied by various
Government and private organizations.
263
TABLE B - 6 6 . — Mortgage debt outstanding by holder, 1939-76
[Billions of dollars]
Major financial institutions
End of year
or quarter
otal
Total
Savings
and
loan
associations
Mutual
savings
banks
Commercial
banks i
Other holders
Life
Federal
insurance
and
comrelated
panies
agencies'
Individuals
and
others
1939.
35.5
18.6
3.8
4.8
4.3
5.7
5.0
11.9
1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
36.5
37.6
36.7
35.3
34.7
19.5
20.7
20.7
20.2
20.2
4.1
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.8
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.3
4.6
4.9
4.7
4.5
4.4
6.0
6.4
6.7
6.7
6.7
4.9
4.7
4.3
3.6
3.0
12.0
12.2
11.7
11.5
11.5
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
35.5
41.8
48.9
56.2
62.7
21.0
26.0
31.8
37.8
42.9
5.4
7.1
8.9
10.3
11.6
i1.2
1.4
4.9
5.8
6.7
4.8
7.2
9.4
10.9
11.6
6.6
7.2
8.7
10.8
12.9
2.4
2.0
1.8
1.8
2.3
12.1
13.8
15.3
16.6
17.5
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953.
1954..
72.8
82.3
91.4
101.3
113.7
51.7
59.5
66.9
75.1
85.7
13.7
15.6
18.4
22.0
26.1
8.3
9.9
11.4
12.9
15.0
13.7
14.7
15.9
16.9
18.6
16.1
19.3
21.3
23.3
26.0
2.8
3.5
4.1
4.6
4.8
18.4
19.3
20.4
21.7
23.2
1955..
1956.
1957..
1958.
1959..
129.9
144.5
156.5
171.8
190.8
99.3
111.2
119.7
131.5
145.5
31.4
35.7
40.0
45.6
53.1
17.5
19.7
21.2
23.3
25.0
21.0
22.7
23.3
25.5
28.1
29.4
33.0
35.2
37.1
39.2
5.3
6.2
7.7
8.0
10.2
25.3
27.1
29.1
32.3
35.1
I960..
1961.
1962.
1963..
1964.
207.5
228.0
251.4
278.5
305.9
157.6
172.6
192.5
217.1
241.0
60.1
68.8
78.8
90.9
101.3
26.9
29.1
32.3
36.2
40.6
28.8
30.4
34.5
39.4
44.0
41.8
44.2
46.9
50.5
55.2
11.5
12.2
12.6
11.8
12.2
38.4
43.1
46.3
49.5
52.7
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
333.3
356. b
381.2
410.9
441.4
264.6
280.8
298.8
319.9
339.1
110.3
114.4
121.8
130.8
140.2
44.6
47.3
50.5
53.5
56.1
49.7
54.4
59.0
65.7
70.7
60.0
64.6
67.5
70.0
72.0
13.5
17.5
20.9
25.1
31.1
55.2
58.2
61.4
65.9
71.2
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
474.2
526.5
603.4
682.3
742.5
355.9
394.2
450.0
505.4
542.6
150.3
174.3
206.2
231.7
249.3
57.9
62.0
67.6
73.2
74.9
73.3
82.5
99.3
119.1
132.1
74.4
75.5
76.9
81.4
86.2
38.3
46.4
54.6
64.8
82.1
79.9
85.9
98.9
112.2
117.8
1975..
801.5
581.3
278.7
77.2
136.2
89.2
101.0
119.2
1974: I
II..
III.
IV.
696.8
717.0
731.9
742.5
514.1
528.2
537.4
542.6
236.1
243.4
247.6
249.3
73.9
74.2
74.8
74.9
121.9
127.3
130.6
132.1
82.2
83.2
84.4
86.2
67.5
72.0
77.2
82.1
115.2
116.9
117.3
117.8
1975:1
II..
III.
IV.
752.2
768.6
785.4
801.5
546.7
558.1
569.9
581.3
252.4
261.3
270.6
278.7
75.2
75.8
76.5
77.2
131.9
133.0
134.5
136.2
87.2
88.0
88.3
89.2
86.3
91.0
95.9
101.0
119.2
119.4
119.5
119.2
1976:1...
II..
Ill
817.4
839.2
861.7
592.1
609.1
626.0
286.6
299.6
312.2
77.7
78.7
79.8
138.0
141.1
144.0
89.8
89.7
90.0
105.0
107.4
111.9
120.3
122.7
123.9
i Includesloans held by nondeposit trust companies, but not by bank trust departments.
»I ncludes former Federal National Mortgage Association and new Government National Mortgage Association, as well as
Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration, Public Housing Administration, Farmers Home Administration,
and in earlier years Reconstruction Finance Corporation, Homeowners Loan Corporation, and Federal Farm Mortgage
Corporation. Also includes GNMA Pools and U.S.-sponsored agencies such as new FNMA, Federal Land Banks, and
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. Other U.S. agencies (amounts small or current separate data not readily
available) included with "individuals and others."
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, based on data from various Government and private organizations.
264
TABLE B-67.—Net public and private debt, 1929-751
[Billions of dollars]
Private
Public
Individual and noncorporate
End of year
Total
Fedoral
Government2
Federally
sponsored
credit
agencies'
State
and
local
governments
Total
Nonfarm
Corporate
Total
Total
Mortgage
Commercial
and
financial*
Consumer
Farm4
1929.
191.9
16.5
13.6
161.8
88.9
72.9
12.2
60.7
31.2
22.4
7.1
1933
168.5
24.3
16.3
127.9
76.9
51.0
9.1
41.9
26.3
11.7
3.9
1939
183.3
42.6
16.4
124.3
73.5
50.8
8.8
42.0
25.0
9.8
7.2
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
189.8
211.4
258 6
313.2
370.6
44.8
56.3
101.7
154.4
211.9
16.4
16.1
15.4
14.5
13.9
128.6
139.0
141.5
144.3
144.8
75.6
83.4
91.6
95.5
94.1
53.0
55.6
49.9
48.8
50.7
9.1
9.3
9.0
8.2
7.7
43.9
46.3
40.9
40.5
42.9
26.1
27.1
26.8
26.1
26.0
9.5
10.0
8.1
9.5
11.8
8.3
9.2
6.0
4.9
5.1
1945
1946
1947 . . .
1948
1949 .
405.9
396.6
415 7
431.3
445.8
252.5
229.5
221.7
215.3
217.6
6.7
.6
.7
13.4
13.7
15.0
17.0
19.1
140.0
153.4
178.3
198.4
208.4
85.3
93.5
108.9
117.8
118.0
54.7
59.9
69.4
80.6
90.4
7.3
7.6
8.6
10.8
12.0
47.4
52.3
60.7
69.7
78.4
27.0
31.8
37.2
42.4
47.1
14.7
12.1
11.9
12.9
13.9
5.7
8.4
11.6
14.4
17.4
1950
1951 _.
1952
1953 .
1954
486 2
519.2
550 2
581 6
605.9
217.4
216.9
221.5
226.8
229.1
.7
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.3
21.7
24.2
27.0
30.7
35.5
246.4
276.8
300.4
322.7
340.0
142.1
162.5
171.0
179.5
182.8
104.3
114.3
129.4
143.2
157.2
12.3
13.7
15.2
16.8
17.5
92.0
100.6
114.2
126.4
139.7
54.8
61.7
68.9
76.7
86.4
15.8
16.2
17.8
18.4
20.8
21.5
22.7
27.5
31.4
32.5
1955
1956
1957 . . .
1958
1959 . .
665 8
698 4
728.3
769 6
833.0
229.6
224.3
223.0
231.0
241.4
2.9
2.4
2.4
2.5
3.7
41.1
44,5
48.6
53.7
59.6
392.2
427.2
454.3
482.4
528.3
212.1
231.7
246.7
259.5
283.3
180.1
195.5
207.6
222.9
245.0
18.7
19.4
20.2
23.2
23.8
161.4
176.1
187.4
199.7
221.2
98.7
109.4
118.1
128.1
141.0
24.0
24.4
24.3
26.5
28.7
38.8
42.3
45.0
45.1
51.5
1960 _ . .
1961
1962 .
1963
1964 . .
874.2
930 3
996.0
1,070.9
1,151.6
239.8
246.7
253.6
257.5
264.0
3.5
4.0
5.3
7.2
7.5
64.9
70.5
77.0
83.9
90.4
566.1
609.1
660.1
722.3
789.7
302.8
324.3
348.2
376.4
409.6
263.3
284.8
311.9
345.8
380.1
25.1
27.5
30.2
33.2
36.0
238.2
257.3
281.7
312.6
344.1
151.3
164.5
180.3
198.6
218.9
30.8
34.8
37.6
42.3
45.0
56.1
58.0
63.8
71.7
80.3
1965
1966
1967 . .
1968
1969
1, 245. 0
1,339.9
1, 439. 6
1, 583. 4
1 737.6
266.4
271.8
286.4
291.9
289.3
8.9
11.2
9.0
21.5
30.6
871.4
98.3
104.7
952.1
112.8 1,031.5
122.7 1,147.4
133.3 1, 284.4
454.3
506.6
553.6
631.5
734.2
417.1
445.5
477.9
515.9
550.2
39.3
42.2
47.9
51.7
55.2
377.8
403.3
429.9
464.2
495.0
236.8
251.6
267.0
284.9
303.9
51.1
55.4
62.2
68.5
70.0
89.9
96.2
100.8
110.8
121.1
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1, 869.6
2, 050.7
2,275.9
2, 532.1
2, 768.6
301.1
325.9
341.2
349.1
360.8
38.8
39.9
41.4
59.8
76.4
144.8
162.8
176.9
189.5
206.4
1, 384.9
797.3
1, 522.1
871.3
1,716.5
975.3
1,933.7 1,106.7
2,124.9 1, 239.0
587.7
650.8
741.2
827.0
885.9
57.8
62.5
68.2
79.0
89.2
529.8
588.3
673.0
748.1
796.6
332.4
372.6
426.2
482.8
523.7
70.3
76.5
88.9
84.5
81.5
127.2
139.1
157.9
180.8
191.5
1975
2,997.1
446.3
78.8
216.1 2,255.9 1, 306.2
949.7
98.0
851.7
566.1
88.8
196.7
.
.
1 Net public and private debt is a comprehensive aggregate of the indebtedness of borrowers after eliminating certain
types of duplicating government and corporate debt.
2 Net Federal Government debt is the outstanding debt held by the public, as defined in "The Budget of the United
States Government, Fiscal Year 1978."
3 Debt of agencies in which there is no longer any Federal proprietary interest. The obligations of the Federal Land
Banks are included beginning with 1947, the debt of the Federal Home Loan Banks is included beginning with 1951, and
the debts of the Federal National Mortgage Association, Federal Intermediate Credit Banks, and Banks for Cooperatives
are included beginning with 1968.
< Farm mortgages andf arm production loans. Farmers' financial and consumer debt is included in the nonfarm categories
s Debt to banks (other than consumer credit), security credit, policy loans, and some single-payments loans.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), based on data from various Federal agencies and
other sources.
265
GOVERNMENT FINANCE
TABLE B-68.—Federal budget receipts, outlays, and debt,fiscalyears 1968-78
[Millions of dollars; fiscal years]
Actual
Description
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
153,671
187,784
193,743
188, 392
208,649
232, 225
114,726
44,716
-5,771
143,321
52, 009
- 7 , 547
143,158
59,362
-8,778
133,785
66,193
-11,586
148,846
72, 959
-13,156
161,357
92,193
-21,325
178,833
184,548
196,588
211,425
232,021
247,074
143,105
41,499
-5,771
148,811
43, 284
- 7 , 547
156,301
49,065
-8,778
163,651
59,361
-11,586
178,104
67,073
-13,156
186,951
81, 447
-21,325
-14,849
BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS:
Total receipts
Federal funds
Trust funds
Interfund transactions.
Total outlays.
Federal funds
Trust funds
Interfund transactions
Total surplus or deficit (—).
Federal funds..
Trust funds...
-25,161
3,236
-2,845
-23,033
-23,372
-28, 379
3,217
-5,490
8,725
-13,143
10, 297
- 2 9 , 866
6,832
- 2 9 , 258 - 2 5 , 594
5,886
10,746
369,769
367,144
382,603
409,467
437,329
468,426
79,140
290,629
87,661
279, 483
97,723
284,880
105,140
304,328
113,559
323, 770
125, 381
343,045
52, 230
238, 399
54, 095
225, 388
57,714
227,166
65,518
238,810
71,426
252,344
75,182
267,863
153,671
187,784
193,743
188, 392
208,649
232,225
68,726
28, 665
34,622
14,079
3,051
2,038
87, 249
36, 678
39, 918
15, 222
3,491
2,319
90,412
32,829
45,298
15,705
3,644
2,430
86, 230
26,785
48,578
16,614
3,735
2,591
94,737
32,166
53,914
15,477
5,436
3,287
103, 246
36,153
64,542
16, 260
4,917
3,188
2,091
400
2,662
247
3,266
158
3,533
325
3,252
381
3,495
426
178,833
184, 548
196, 588
211,425
232,021
247,074
79,409
4,612
5,522
4,010
4,541
10,637
1,891
80,207
3,784
5,016
3,901
5,779
7,065
2,224
79,284
3,564
4,508
4,043
5,164
9,090
3,166
76, 807
3,093
4,180
4,941
4,288
10,396
3,632
77, 356
3,868
4,174
5,521
5,279
10,601
4,325
75,072
3,504
4,030
5,947
4,855
9,930
5,529
7,004
9,708
33,680
6,882
650
1,684
6,871
11,758
37,281
7,640
761
1,649
7,888
13,051
43, 066
8,677
952
1,940
9,045
14,716
55, 423
9,776
1,299
2,159
11,694
17,471
63,911
10,730
1,650
2,466
11,874
18,832
72,958
12, 013
2,131
2,682
311
13,751
365
15, 793
451
18,312
488
19,609
531
20,582
7,222
22,813
OUTSTANDING DEBT, END OF YEAR:
Gross Federal debt
Held by Government agencies..
Held by the public
Federal Reserve SystemOthers
BUDGET RECEIPTS.
Individual income taxes
Corporation income taxes
Social insurance taxes and contributions...
Excise taxes
Estate and gift taxes
Customs duties
Miscellaneous receipts:
Deposit of earnings by Federal Reserve System
Allother
BUDGET OUTLAYS.
National defense
International affairs
General science, space, and technology
Natural resources, environment, and energy.
Agriculture
Commerce and transportation—
Community and regional development
Education, training, employment, and
social services
Health
Income security
Veterans benefits and services
Law enforcement and justice
General government
Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal
assistance
Interest
Allowances
Undistributed offsetting receipts
Composition of undistributed offsetting re
ceipts:
Employer share, employee retirement..
Interest received by trust funds
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf
...
-5,460
- 5 , 545
- 6 , 567
- 8 , 427
-8,137
-12,318
-1,825
-2,674
-2,018
-3,099
- 2 , 444
-3,936
-2,611
-4,765
-2,768
-5,089
-2,927
-5,436
-961
-428
-187
-1,051
-279
-3,956
See next page for continuation of table and for footnotes.
266
TABLE B-68.—Federal budget receipts, outlays, and debt, fiscal years 1968-78—Continued
[Millions of dollars; fiscal years)
Actual
Estimate
Description
1974
1975
1976
ransition
quarter
1977
1978
BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS:
Total receipts
Federal funds
Trust funds
Interfund transactions.
Total outlays
Federal funds
Trust funds
Interfund transactions.
Total surplus or deficit ( — ) .
Federal funds.
Trust f u n d s . . .
264,932
280,997
300, 005
81, 773
354,045
393,017
181,219
104,846
-21,133
187, 505
118,590
-25, 098
201, 099
133, 695
- 3 4 , 789
54, 085
32,071
- 4 , 383
237, 405
153, 558
- 3 6 , 918
258,926
170, 515
- 3 6 , 425
269,620
326,105
366, 466
94, 746
411,243
439, 967
199,920
90,833
-21,133
240, 031
111,171
-25,098
269, 969
131,286
- 3 4 , 789
65,106
34, 023
- 4 , 383
303,136
145, 026
-36,918
319, 335
157, 057
- 3 6 , 425
-4,688
-45,108
-66, 461
- 1 2 , 973
-57,198
- 4 6 , 950
-18,701
14,013
- 5 2 , 526
7,419
- 6 8 , 870
2,410
-11,021
-1,952
- 6 5 , 730
8,532
- 6 0 , 409
13, 459
486,247
544,131
631,866
646, 379
716,725
784, 973
140,194
346,053
147, 225
396,906
151, 566
480,300
148,052
498,327
156, 398
560,327
169,146
615,827
80,649
265,404
84,993
311,913
94,714
385, 586
96, 702
401,625
264,932
280,997
300, 005
81, 773
354, 045
393, 017
118,952
38,620
76,780
16,844
5,035
3,334
122,386
40, 621
86, 441
16, 551
4,611
3,676
131, 603
41, 409
92, 714
16,963
5,216
4,074
38, 801
8,460
25, 760
4,473
1,455
1,212
153, 097
56, 604
108, 883
17, 926
5,907
4,713
171,217
58,910
126, 068
18, 513
5,806
5,262
4,845
524
5,777
934
5,451
2,575
1,500
112
6,000
915
6,400
841
269,620
326,105
366,466
94, 746
411,243
439,967
78,569
4,821
3,977
6,571
2,230
13,0£6
4,911
86, 585
5,862
3,989
9,537
1,660
16,010
4,431
89, 996
5,067
4,370
11,282
2,502
17, 248
5,300
22, 518
1,997
1,161
3,324
584
4,700
1,530
100,075
7,150
4,434
17,050
2,899
16,1C6
7,695
112,262
7,281
4,725
19, 747
2,333
19, 252
7,868
11,558
22,074
84,431
13,386
2,462
3,327
15,248
27,647
108, 605
16, 597
2,942
3,089
18,167
33, 448
127, 4C6
18, 432
3,320
2,927
5,013
8,720
32, 796
3,962
859
878
21,114
39, 251
138,118
18, 388
3,712
3,731
19, 358
43, 205
143, 892
18, 279
3,789
3,930
6,746
28,072
7,005
30,974
7,119
34, 589
2,024
7,246
8,926
37,987
-16,651
-14,075
- 1 4 , 704
- 2 , 567
- 1 5 , 393
8,089
39, 735
2,651
-16,429
-3,319
-6,583
-3,980
-7,667
- 4 , 242
-7,800
-985
-270
- 4 , 592
-8,201
-4,670
-8,659
-6,748
-2,428 j
-2,662
-1,311
- 2 , 600
-3,100
OUTSTANDING DEBT, END OF YEAR:
Gross Federal debt
Held by Government agencies.
Held by the public
Federal Reserve System.
Others...
BUDGET RECEIPTS.
Individual income taxes
Corporation income t a x e s . . _
Social insurance taxes and contributions..
Excise taxes
Estate and gift taxes
Customs d u t i e s . .
Miscellaneous receipts:
Deposit of earnings by Federal Reserve
System.
Allother
BUDGET OUTLAYS.
National defense
International affairs
General science, space, and technology
Natural resources, environment, and energy.
Agriculture.
Commerce and transportation
_.
Community and regional development
Education, training, employment, and
social services
Health
Income security
_
Veterans benef ts and services
_.
Law enforcement and justice
General government
•Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal
assistance
Interest
Allowances
Undistributed offsetting receipts
Composition of undistributed offsetting
receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement.
Interest received by trust funds
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf.
Note.—Under provisions of the Congressional Budget Act of 1 9 7 4 , the fiscal year for the Federal Government
shifted beginning with fiscal year 1 9 7 7 . Through fiscal year 1 9 7 6 , the fiscal year runs from July 1 through
June 3 0 ; starting in October 1 9 7 6 (fiscal year 1 9 7 7 ) , the fiscal year runs from October 1 through September 3 0 .
The 3-month period from July 1 , 1 9 7 6 through September 3 0 , 1 9 7 6 is a separate fiscal period known as the
transition quarter.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
267
TABLE B-69.—Federal budget receipts and outlays, fiscal years 1929-78
[Millions of dollars]
Fiscal year
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or
deficit ( - )
1929
3, 862
3,127
734
1933
1,997
4,598
-2,602
4,979
8,841
-3,862
6 361
8,621
14, 350
23,649
44, 276
9 456
13, 634
35,114
78, 533
91,280
-3,095
-5,013
- 2 0 , 764
- 5 4 , 884
- 4 7 , 004
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
45,216
39, 327
38, 394
41,774
39, 437
92,690
55,183
34,532
29, 773
38, 834
-47,474
-15,856
3,862
12,001
603
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
39,485
51,646
66,204
69, 574
69,719
42,597
45, 546
67,721
76,107
70, 890
-3,112
6,100
-1,517
-6,533
-1,170
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
65 469
74,547
79 990
79,636
79, 249
68 509
70,460
76 741
82, 575
92,104
-3,041
4,087
3,249
-2,939
-12,855
92 492
94,389
99,676
106,560
112,662
92 223
97, 795
106,813
111,311
118,584
269
- 3 , 406
-7,137
-4,751
-5,922
116 833
130,856
149,552
153,671
187,784
118 430
134,652
158,254
178,833
184, 548
-1,596
-3,796
- 8 , 702
-25,161
3,236
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
193,743
188 392
208, 649
232 225
264,932
196,588
211 425
232,021
247 074
269,620
-2,845
-23,033
- 2 3 , 372
- 1 4 , 849
- 4 , 688
1975
1976
Transition quarter ...
1977 i._
1978 i
280 997
300, 005
81,773
354, 045
393, 017
326 105
366, 466
94,746
411,243 !
439, 967
-45,108
- 6 6 , 461
-12,973
-57,198
- 4 6 , 950
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
.
1960
1961
1962 .
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
. ..
. ..
.
..
i Estimate.
Note.—Under provisions of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, the fiscal year for the Federal Government shifted
beginning with fiscal year 1977. Through fiscal year 1976, the fiscal year runs from July 1 through June 30; starting in
October 1976 (fiscal year 1977), the fiscal year runs from October 1 through September 30. The 3-month period from
July 1,1976 through September 30,1976 is a separate fiscal period known as the transition quarter.
Data for 1929-39 are according to the administrative budget and those beginning 1940 according to the unified budget.
Certain interfund transactions are excluded from receipts and outlays beginning 1932. For years prior to 1932 the amounts
of such transactions are not significant.
Refunds of receipts are excluded from receipts and outlays.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
268
TABLE B-70.—Relation of the Federal budget to the Federal sector of the national income and
product accounts,fiscalyears, 1976-78
[Billions of dollars; fiscal years]
Receipts and expenditures
1976
Transition
quarter
Estimate
1977
1978
RECEIPTS
Total budget receipts..
300.0
Federal sector, national income and product accounts, receipts.
81.8
354.0
393.0
6.0
2.3
6.0
-.8
1.6
.6
2.3
-.2
6.8
2.7
-1.8
-1.1
7.5
3.0
3.2
-1.0
313.6
86.2
360.7
405.7
366.5
Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing)..
Other netting and grossing
Adjustment to accruals
Other
94.7
411.2
440.0
-4.8
6.0
2.3
2.6
2.1
-1.7
-1.3
1.6
.6
.8
1.1
-.9
-3.2
6.8
2.7
2.0
1.9
-1.5
-3.8
7.5
3.0
1.0
2.3
-2.8
373.0
96.7
419.9
447.1
EXPENDITURES
Total budget outlays
Lending and financial transactions
Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing)..
Other netting and grossing
Defense timing adjustment
Bonuses on Outer Continental Shelf land leases._
Other
Federal sector, national income and product accounts, expenditures
Note.-See Note, Table B-69.
See Special Analysis A, "Special Analyses, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1978" for description
of these categories.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.
269
TABLE B-71.—Receipts and expenditures of the government sector of the national income and product
accounts, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Total government
Federal Government
Surplus or
deficit
Calendar year or quarter
Surplus or
deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product accounts
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or
deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product accounts
1.2
7.6
7.8
-0.2
-1.3
7.2
7.2
-. 1
9.6
9.6
.0
10.0
10.4
10.6
10.9
11.1
11.6
13.0
15.4
17.7
19.5
9.3
9.1
8.8
8.4
8.5
9.0
11.1
14.4
17.6
20.2
.6
1.3
1.8
2.5
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.0
.1
21.3
23.4
25.4
27.4
29.0
31.7
35.0
38.5
42.0
46.4
22.5
23.9
25.5
27.3
30.2
32.9
35.9
39.8
44.3
46.9
-1.2
-.4
-.0
.1
-1.1
-1.3
-.9
-1.4
-2.4
-.4
-3.3
.5
-1.8
-13.2
-5.8
8.5
49.9
54.0
58.5
63.2
69.5
75.1
84.8
93.6
107.2
119.7
49.8
54.4
58.0
62.8
68.5
75.1
84.3
94.7
106.9
117.6
.1
-.4
.5
.5
1.0
-.0
.5
-1.1
.3
2.1
204.2
220.6
244.7
265.0
299.7
357.8
388.9
-12.1
-22.0
-17.3
-6.7
-11.5
-71.2
-58.3
134.9
152.6
177.4
193.5
210.2
234.3
260.5
132.2
148.9
163.7
180.5
203.0
227.5
246.6
2.8
3.7
13.7
13.0
7.3
6.9
13.9
276.7
285.8
297.5
292.9
280.7
293.4
306.5
318.2
-4.1
-7.6
-9.0
-25.3
201.9
208.0
214.5
216.6
193.2
200.2
206.5
212.0
8.7
7.8
8.0
4.5
-45.0
-92.9
-58.1
-61.5
287.2
254.4
297.7
306.7
337.0
354.3
363.7
376.0
-49.8
-99.9
-66.0
-69.4
222.2
230.4
239.7
245.0
217.5
223.4
231.8
237.2
4.7
6.9
7.9
7.9
-51.6
-44.9
-44.7
316.5
324.6
333.8
380.3
378.7
391.1
405.6
-63.8
-54.1
-57.4
251.6
254.3
262.0
239.5
245.0
249.3
252.4
12.2
9.2
Receipts
Expenditures
1929
11.3
10.3
1.0
3.8
2.6
1933
9.3
10.7
-1.4
2.7
4.0
1939
15.4
17.6
-2.2
6.7
8.9
-2.2
1940
1941
1942
1943.
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
17.7
25.0
32.6
49.2
51.2
53.2
51.0
56.9
58.9
55.9
18.4
28.8
64.0
93.3
103.0
92.7
45 6
42.5
50 5
59.3
-.7
-3.8
-31.4
-44.1
-51.8
-39.5
5.4
14.4
8.4
-3.4
8.6
15.4
22.9
39.3
41.0
42.5
39.1
43.2
43.2
38.7
10.0
20.5
56.1
85.8
95.5
84.6
35.6
29.8
34.9
41.3
-1.3
-5.1
-33.1
-46.6
-54.5
-42.1
3.5
13.4
8.3
-2.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
69.0
85.2
90.1
94.6
89.9
101.1
109.7
116.2
115.0
129.4
61 0
79.2
93 9
101.6
97.0
98 0
104.5
115 3
127.6
131.0
8.0
6.1
-3.8
-6.9
-7.1
3.1
5.2
.9
-12.6
-1.6
50.0
64.3
67.3
70.0
63.7
72.6
78.0
81.9
78.7
89.8
40.8
57.8
71.1
77.1
69.8
68.1
71.9
79 6
88.9
91.0
9.2
6.5
-3.7
-7.1
-6.0
4.4
6.1
2.3
-10.3
-1.1
139.5
144.8
156.7
168.5
174.0
188.3
212.3
228.2
263.4
296.3
136.4
149 1
160.5
167.8
176 3
187.8
213 6
242.4
268.9
285 6
3.1
-4.3
-3.8
.7
-2.3
.5
-1.3
-14.2
-5.5
10.7
96.1
98.1
106.2
114.4
114.9
124.3
141.8
150.5
174.7
197.0
93.1
101.9
110.4
114.2
118.2
123.8
143.6
163.7
180.6
188.4
3.0
-3.9
-4.2
302.6
322.2
367.4
411.2
454.6
466.4
530.8
311.9
340 5
370.9
404.9
458.8
530.8
575.3
-9.4
-18.3
-3.5
6.3
-4.2
-64.4
-44.5
192.1
198.6
227.5
258.3
288.2
286.5
330.6
1974: 1
||
III
IV
436.1
450.3
468.1
463.8
431.4
450.2
469.1
484.6
4.7
.2
-1.0
-20.8
1975: 1
II
Ill
IV
459.6
431.6
480.7
493.7
504.7
524.5
538.7
555.2
509.3
522.6
535.6
560.9
567.4
580.3
592 5
.
1960
1961
1962
1963..
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
..
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 v
.
..
1976: 1
II
III
IVP
____
State and local
government
national
income
and
product accounts
Receipts
Expenditures
12.7
Note.—Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments are reflected in Federal expenditures and State and local
receipts and expenditures. Total government receipts and expenditures have been adjusted to eliminate this duplication.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
270
TABLE E-72.—Receipts and expenditures of the Federal Government sector of the national income
and product accounts, 1949-78
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Receipts
Year or quarter
Fiscal year:
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963.
..
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973.
1974
1975
1976
19772
19782
Calendar year:
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953 . . . .
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958 . . .
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
...
1969
1970
...
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976*
1975" 1
II
III
IV
1976: 1
II
III
IV*____
Personal Corpotax
rate
and
Total non- profits
tax
tax
acreceipts cruals
Expenditures
Indirect
bus;- ConPurness tribuchases
of
tax tions
and
for Total i goods
and
non- social
servtax insurices
acance
cruals
Transfer
payments
To
persons
Grantsin-aid
to State
To
and
forlocal
eign- governers
ments
Net
interest
paid
Surplus
Subsior
dies
defiless
cit
cur(-),
rent
nasurtionplus
al inof
come
govand
ernprodment
uct
enteracprises counts
61.1
65.2
69.4
65.8
67.4
76.3
81.0
78.1
85.4
94.8
95.0
104.0
110.0
115.6
120.0
132.7
146.0
160.0
190.1
194.9
192.5
213.5
240.5
271.9
283.2
313.6
360.7
405.7
23.2
28.8
31.4
30.3
29.7
33.6
36.7
36.3
38.2
42.5
43.6
47.3
49.6
50.7
51.4
57.5
64.4
71.4
90.0
93.6
87.5
00.3
07.3
22.6
27.3
37.2
58.6
77.5
21.7
19.4
19.7
17.3
18.9
21.5
20.8
17.9
21.4
22.3
20.0
22.7
23.3
25.7
27.1
30.8
30.3
33.2
37.0
33.0
32.0
34.2
41.0
43.8
41.6
51.0
60.6
65.5
6.7
9.5
9.7
7.3
7.6
10.7
7.8
10.4
8.7
10.0
10.8 10.3
11.7 11.7
11.6 12.3
12.0 13.9
13.2 16.7
13.3 18.1
14.2 19.9
15.0 22.1
15.6 23.6
16.9 24.5
15.5 28.9
15.8 35.5
17.1 38.4
18.6 44.5
19.2 49.2
20.0 52.9
19.9 59.1
20.7 71.5
21.4 84.1
22.1 92.2
24.5 100.9
24.6 116.9
26.1 136.6
44.7
66.0
75.9
74.3
67.2
70.0
76.0
82.8
91.2
91.3
98.1
106.2
111.7
117.2
118.5
132.7
154.9
172.2
184.7
195.6
212.7
232.9
256.2
278.9
329.5
373.0
419.9
447.1
25.7
47.2
56.4
53.9
44.3
45.5
48.1
51.1
54.8
52.9
55.8
61.0
63.7
65.9
64.6
72.4
86.0
95.0
98.0
97.0
94.8
100.9
101.7
104.8
119.0
127.2
144.8
160.0
8.1
8.5
9.2
10.5
12.1
12.8
14.4
17.8
19.9
20.6
23.6
25.1
26.5
27.4
28.4
31.8
37.2
42.7
48.7
55.0
67.7
76.1
87.1
101.7
131.0
153.6
167.7
175.9
3.1
2.6
2.1
1.7
2.1
1.8
1.9
1.7
18
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.0
23
2.8
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.5
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.7
4.7
6.2
6.9
6.9
7.6
8.3
9.8
10.9
12.7
14.8
17.8
19.2
22.6
26 8
32.6
40.4
41.6
48.3
57.5
68.0
69.6
4.4
45
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.8
53
5.4
56
6.8
6.4
6.4
7.1
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.6
10.5
12.1
13.6
14 2
14.1
15.9
19.8
21-9
2 3.8
2 3.8
3 3.0
10
8
.9
.8
1.2
17
26
2.4
25
24
33
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.3
48
5.2
4.1
4.6
5.4
68
6.4
9.1
7.9
57
5.8
7.3
8.1
16 4
— 8
-6.5
-8.5
.2
6 3
50
-4.7
—5 8
34
-3 1
-2.2
-1.7
-1.5
1.4
.0
-8.9
-12.2
5.4
-.6
—20 2
-19.5
-15.7
-7.1
-46 3
-59.4
-59.2
-41.4
38.7
50.0
64.3
67.3
70.0
63.7
72.6
78 0
81.9
78.7
89 8
96.1
98.1
106.2
114.4
114 9
124.3
141.8
150.5
174.7
197.0
192.1
198.6
227.5
258.3
288.2
286.5
330.6
287.2
254.4
297.7
306.7
316.5
324.6
333.8
16.1
18.1
26.1
31.0
32.2
29.0
31.4
35.2
37.4
36.8
39.9
43.6
44.7
48.6
51.5
48.6
53.9
61.7
67.5
79.6
94.8
92.2
89.9
108.2
114 6
131.2
125.7
145.3
137.6
99.7
130.5
135.1
137.7
141.9
147.2
154.5
9.6
17.2
21.7
18.6
19.5
16.9
21.1
20.9
20 4
18.0
22.5
21.4
21.5
22.5
24.6
26 1
28.9
31.4
30.0
36.3
36.2
30.8
33.5
36.6
43 0
45.6
42.6
55.9
34.8
38.7
47.4
49.4
53.1
54.8
56.2
8.0
8.9
9.4
10.3
10.9
9.7
10.7
11.2
11.8
11.5
12.5
13.4
13.6
14.6
15.3
16.2
16.5
15.6
16.3
18.0
19.0
19 3
20.4
20.0
21 2
21.7
23.9
23.5
21.9
23.2
25.2
25.5
22.8
23.3
23.8
24.1
41.3
40.8
57.8
71.1
77.1
69.8
68.1
71.9
79.6
88.9
91.0
93.1
101.9
110.4
114.2
118.2
123.8
143.6
163.7
180.6
188.4
204.2
220.6
244.7
265 0
299.7
357.8
388.9
337.0
354.3
363.7
376.0
380.3
378.7
391.1
405.6
20.4
18.7
38.3
52.4
57.5
47.9
44.5
45.9
50.0
53.9
53.9
53.7
57.4
63.7
64.6
65.2
67.3
78.8
90.9
98.0
97.5
95.6
96.2
102.1
102.2
111.6
124.4
133.4
120.3
122.4
124.6
130.4
129.2
131.2
134.5
138.9
8.7
10.8
8.5
8.8
9.4
11.5
12.4
13 4
15 7
19.6
20.1
21.6
25.0
25.6
27.0
27.9
30.3
33.5
40.1
46.0
50.6
61.3
72.7
80.5
93 2
114.3
145.8
159.0
135.7
146.6
149.2
151.8
157.2
155.6
159.8
163.3
5.1
3.6
3.1
2.1
2.0
1.8
2.0
19
18
1.8
18
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.7
2.6
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.1
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.2
2.2
2.3
2.5
26
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.3
4.2
5.6
6.8
6.5
7.2
8.0
9.1
10.4
11.1
14.4
15.9
18.6
20.3
24.4
29.0
37.5
40 6
43.9
54.4
60.2
49.8
53.2
56.8
58.0
58.8
56.3
60.1
65.5
1.3
/i 4
1.4
\ 5
1.6
.6
1 0
.9
8
-2.6
9 2
6.5
-3 7
-7.1
-6.0
4.4
61
2 3
-10.3
-1 1
3.0
-3.9
-4.2
5.0
5.9
7.1
7.4
7.4
8.2
9.4
10.6
12.3
12.4
14.9
17.6
18.3
20.5
23.1
24.0
25.0
33.1
36.7
40.8
47.0
49.7
54.9
62.8
79.4
89.8
94.3
105.8
92.8
92.9
94.7
96.6
102.9
104.6
106.6
109.3
1 fi
4.6
51
55
5.2
62
6.8
6.2
6.8
7.3
80
8.4
9.2
9.8
11.4
12.9
14 3
14.0
14.6
18 2
20.9
23.5
27.5
22.2
22.6
23.6
25.6
26.6
27.4
27.7
28.4
i!o
1.5
24
24
2^8
21
2.6
4.0
4.2
3.9
45
4.6
5.5
4.7
45
5.2
6 3
6.2
7.8
82
5.2
6.5
5.6
6.0
6.4
6.7
7.1
5.4
5.2
5.6
6.3
—3! 3
.5
-1.8
-13.2
-5.8
8.5
-12.1
-22.0
-17.3
-6.7
-11.5
-71.2
-58.3
49 8
-99.9
-66.0
-69.4
-63.8
-54.1
-57.4
iWage accruals less disbursements have been subtracted from total. These "were (in billions of dollars at seasonally
adjusted annual rates) .0 in each of the quarters of 1975 and 1976.
2
Estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Office of Management and Budget.
271
T A B L E B-73.—Receipts and expenditures of the State and local government sector of the national
income and product accounts,
1946-76
[Billions of dollar >; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Expenditures
Receipts
Calendar
year or
quarter
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
Total
Subsidies
Pur- TransIndirect
ContriPerless
chases
Corbusifer
Fedsonal
of
porate
ness butions
payNet current
tax
eral
for
profits
tax
Total» goods ments interest surplus
and
govsocial grantsand
tax
and
to
paid ofernnontax accruals nontax insur- in-aid
servpereceipts
ment
ance
ices
accruals
sons
enterprises
0.6
.7
.8
.9
1.1
1.7
2.0
2.2
11.1
14.4
17.6
20.2
9.9
12.8
15.3
18.0
1.7
2.3
3.0
3.0
0.2
.1
.1
.1
07
-.8
8
9
19
1.0
14.6
15.9
17.4
18.8
19.9
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
22.5
23.9
25.5
27.3
30.2
19.8
21.8
23.2
25.0
27.8
3.6
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.6
.1
.0
.0
.0
.1
9
10
-1.1
12
-1.3
12
4
-.0
-1.1
1.0
4.5
5.0
5.4
6.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
21.6
23.8
25.7
27.2
29.3
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.3
4.2
5.6
6.8
32.9
35.9
39.8
44.3
46.9
30.6
33.5
37.1
41.1
43.7
3.8
3.9
4.3
4.8
5.1
.1
.1
.1
.1
.1
15
-1.6
-1.7
—1 7
-2 0
13
9
-1 4
24
4
32.0
34.4
37.0
39.4
42.6
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.7
6.5
7.2
8.0
9.1
10.4
49.8
54.4
58.0
62.8
68.5
46.5
50.8
54.3
59.0
64.6
5.4
5.8
6.0
6.4
6.9
.1
.1
.1
.1
-.1
—2 2
-2.3
-2.5
—2 8
-2.8
1
-.4
5
5
1.0
0.5
.6
.7
2.4
.6
21.3
23.4
25.4
27.4
29.0
.
.
.
.
. -
national
income
and
product accounts
9.3
10.7
12.2
13.3
1.5
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.8
.8
.9
3.0
3.2
3.5
.8
.8
.8
31.7
35.0
38.5
42.0
46.4
3.9
13.0
15.4
17.7
19.5
Surplus
or
deficit
6.7
1.2
7.4
8.2
1.3
1.5
8.8
1.7
7
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
49.9
54.0
58.5
63.2
69.5
10.0
1.8
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
75.1
84.8
93.6
107.2
119.7
10.9
12.8
14.6
17.4
20.6
2.0
46.1
49.7
54.0
60.8
67.4
5.0
5.7
6.7
7.2
7.9
11.1
14.4
15.9
18.6
20.3
75.1
84.3
94.7
106.9
117.6
71.1
79.8
89.3
100.7
110.4
7.3
8.1
9.4
10.6
12.1
-.3
-.7
-.9
-1.2
-1.6
-3.0
-3.0
—3.1
-3.2
—3 3
— 0
5
1 i
3
21
134.9
152.6
177.4
193.5
210.2
23.1
26.4
33.0
36.1
39.2
3.7
6.8
74.7
83.1
91.0
99.0
106.7
9.0
9.9
10.8
12.1
13.7
24.4
29.0
37.5
40.6
43.9
132.2
148.9
163.7
180.5
203.0
123.2
137.5
151.0
167.3
191.6
14.6
17.2
18.9
20.3
20.3
-2.0
-1.8
-2.1
-2.9
-4.6
-3.6
-3.8
—4.2
—4.4
-4.4
28
3.7
13 7
13 0
7.3
1975
1976*
234.3
260.5
43.1
48.3
6.7
8.8
114.7
126.2
15.4
17.0
54.4
60.2
227.5
246.6
214.5
232.3
23.1
25.2
-5.7
-6.6
-4.5
-4.4
69
13.9
1974: 1
II
III
IV.
201.9
208.0
214.5
216.6
37.3
38.3
40.2
41.1
6.6
7.5
6.3
102.5
105.9
109.1
109.2
13.0
13.4
13.9
14.3
42.5
43.4
43.8
45.7
193.2
200.2
206.5
212.0
181.9
189.1
195.1
200.4
19.3
20.0
20.7
21.3
-3.9
-4.5
-4.8
-5.2
-4.2
-4.4
-4.5
-4.5
8 7
7.8
8.0
4.5
1975: 1
II
Ill
IV
222.2
230.4
239.7
245.0
41.7
42.5
43.5
44.7
5.4
6.1
7.5
7.7
110.7
113.3
116.3
118.7
14.7
15.2
15.7
16.0
49.8
53.2
56.8
58.0
217.5
223.4
231.8
237.2
205.3
210.9
218.6
223.4
22.1
22.7
23.5
24.2
-5.3
-5.6
-5.8
-6.0
-4.6
-4.5
-4.5
-4.4
47
6.9
7.9
7.9
1976: 1
251.6
254.3
262.0
46.1
47.6
48.6
50.8
8.3
8.7
8.9
122.0
124.9
127.2
130.7
16.4
16.8
17.2
17.5
58.8
56.3
60.1
65.5
239.5
245.0
249.3
252.4
225.5
230.9
235.0
238.0
24.6
25.0
25.4
25.9
-6.2
-6.4
-6.6
-7.0
-4.4
-4.4
-4.4
-4.4
12.2
9.2
12.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
.
II
III
IVP
2.2
2.5
3.1
3.4
4.2
5.0
5.7
6.9
1
Wage accruals less disbursements have been subtracted from total. These were (in billions of dollars, at seasonally
adjusted annual rates) .0 in each of the quarters of 1974,1975, and 1976.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
272
TABLE B-74.—State and local government revenues and expenditures, selectedfiscalyears,
1927-75
(Millions of dollars]
General revenues by source »
Fiscal year 1
Total
»roperty
taxes
Sales
and
gross
receipts
taxes
Individual
income
taxes
General expenditures by function 3
Revenue
from
ederal
lovers
ment
Corporation
net
income
taxes
All
other'
Total
Education
Highways
Public
welfare
All
other <
1927..
7,271
4,730
470
70
92
116
1,793
7,210
2,235
1,809
151
3,015
1932..
1934..
1936..
1938..
7,267
7,678
8,395
9,228
4,487
4,076
4,093
4,440
752
1,008
1,484
1,794
74
80
153
218
79
49
113
165
232
1,016
948
800
1,643
1,449
1,604
1,811
7,765
7,181
7,644
8,757
2,311
1,831
2,177
2,491
1,741
1,509
1,425
1,650
444
889
827
1,069
3,269
2,952
3,215
3,547
1940..
1942..
1944..
1946..
1948..
9,609
10,418
10,908
12,356
17,250
4,430
4,537
4,604
4,986
6,126
1,982
2,351
2,289
2,986
4,442
224
276
342
42!
543
156
272
451
447
592
945
858
954
855
1,861
1,872 9,229
2,123 9,190
2,269 8,863
2,661 11,028
3,685 17,684
2,638
2,586
2,793
3,356
5,379
1,573
1,490
1,200
1,672
3,036
1,156
1,225
1,133
1,409
2,099
3,862
3,889
3,737
4,591
7,170
1950..
1952..
1953..
1954..
20,911
25,181
27,307
29,012
7,349
8,652
9,375
9,96-
5,154
6,357
6,927
7,276
788
998
1,065
1,127
593
846
81
778
2,486
2,566
2,870
2,966
4,541
5,763
6,252
6,897
22,787 7,177
26,098 8,318
27,910 9,390
30,701 10, 557
3,803
4,650
4,987
5,527
2,940 8,867
2,788 10,342
2,914 10,619
3,060 11,557
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
31,073
34,667
38,164
41,219
45,306
10,735 7,643
11,749 8,691
12,864 9,467
14,04" 9,829
14,98: 10,437
1,237
1,538
1,754
1,759
1,994
74
890
984
1,018
1,00'
3,131 7,584
3,335 8,465
3,843 9,250
4,865 9,699
6,377 10,516
33,7?4
36,711
40,375
44,851
48,887
11,907
13,220
14,134
15,919
17, 283
6,452
6,953
7,816
8,567
9,592
3,168
3,139
3,485
3,818
4,136
12,197
13,399
14,940
16,547
17,876
I960..
1961..
1962.
1963.
50, 50! 16,405 11,84!
54,03 18,002 12,46:
58,252 19,054 13,494
62,890 20,089 14,456
2,46:
2,61:
3,03;
3,26!
1,180
1,266
1,308
1,50!"
6,974
7,13*
7,87
8,722
51,876
56,201
60,206
64,816
18,719 9,428
20, 574 9,844
22,216 10,357
23,776 11,136
4,404
4,720
5,084
548 #
19,325
21,063
22,549
24,423
1962-63«_.
1963-64 5 . .
1964-65 5 . .
62, 26!
68,443
74,00C
19,833
21,241
22,58:
14,446
15,762
17,11
3,26!
3,791
4.09C
1,50! 8,663 14,556 63,97 23,729 11,150
1,69! 10,002 15,951 69,302 26.286 11,664
1,929 11,029 17,25C 74,546 28,563 12,22'
6..
5..
6..
5..
6..
83,036
91,197
101,26114,551
130,751
24,671
26,04
27,74
30,67:
34,05-
19,08E 4,760
20,53C 5,826
7,308
22,91
26, 51! 8,908
30,32; 10,812
2,03J
2,227
2,51
3,180
3,738
13,2115,371
17,181
19,15:
21,85;
19,26! 82,843
21,19 93,350
23,598 102,41
26,118 116,728
29,971131,332
33.287
37,919
41,158
47,238
52,718
12,770 6,757 30,029
13,93r 8,218 33,281
9,857 36,915
14,48
15,41 12,110 41,963
16,42; 14,679 47,508
1970-715..
1971-72 5..
1972-73 5..
1973-74 5..
1974-75 5..
144,92]
166,35:
190, 21'
207, 67(
228,19!
37( 85!
42,13
45, 283
47,705
51, 491
33,23:
37,481
42,04;
46, 09!
49, 81!
11.90C
15,237
17,994
19, 491
21,45-
3,424,41
5,42;
6,01
6,64:
26,146
31,25
39,256
41, 820
47,05
32,374 150,674
35,826jl66,87r
40,210 181,22
46, 541 198,9
51,739 230, 448
59,413
64,886
69,714
75, 833
87,858
18,09!
19,011
18, 61L
19, 916
22,528
1965-66
1966-67
1967-68
1968-69
1969-70
11,634
12,563
13,489
14,850
5,420 23,678
5,766 25, 586
6,315 27,447
18,226
21,070
23, 582
25, 085
28,155
54,940
61,907
69, 316
78, 096
91,907
1 Fiscal years not the same for all governments. See footnote 5.
2 Excludes revenues or expenditures of publicly owned utilities and liquor stores, and of insurance-trust activities.
Intergovernmental receipts and payments between State and local governments are also excluded.
3
Includes licenses and other taxes and charges and miscellaneous revenues.
< Includes expenditures for health, hospitals, police, local fire protection, natural resources, sanitation, housing and
urban renewal, local parks and recreation, general control, financial administration, interest on general debt, and unallocable expenditures.
5 Data for fiscal year ending in the 12-month period through June 30. Data for 1963 and earlier years include local government amounts grouped in terms of fiscal years ended during the particular calendar year.
Note.—Data are not available for intervening years.
See Table B-67 for net debt of State and ocal governments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
273
TABLE B-75.—Interest-bearing public debt by kind of obligation, 1967-76
(Millions of dollars)
Marketable
End of year
or month
Fiscal year:
1967...
1968...
1969....
Total
interestbearing
public
debt
Bills
49,108
71,073
78, 946
232, 599
245,473
257, 202
262,971
266,575
76,154
86,677
94, 648
100,061
105,019
93, 489
104, 807
113,419
117,840
128,419
1975..
1976...
Foreign
government
series 2
Government
account
series 3
97,418 111,614
91,079 117,808
78,805 125,623
51,213
51,712
51,711
1,514
3,741
4,070
56,155
59, 526
66, 790
2,731
2,828
3,051
62,956
53,989
49,135
45, 071
33,137
51,281
4,755 76, 323
53,003
9,270 82, 784
55,921 18,985 89, 598
59, 418 28, 524 101,738
61,921 25,011 115,442
4,068
5,759
3,654
3,701
4,289
Treasury Treasury
bonds i
notes
58, 535
64, 440
68, 356
369,026
396, 289
425, 360
456,353
473,238
savings
bonds
U.S.
Total
322,286 5210,672
344, 401 226, 592
351, 729 226,107
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
Non marketable
Total
136, 426
150,816
168,158
193,382
206, 663
532,122
619, 254
1975: Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May.
June.
315,606 128, 569 150, 257 36, 779 216,516 65, 482 23, 216
392,581 161,198 191, 758 39,626 226, 673 69, 733 21, 500
493,128 286,133 121,044 131, 790 33,298 206,995 63, 725 22, 962
498,661 289, 827 122,995 132,683 34,149 208, 834 64, 036 23, 298
508, 581 299, 989 123, 972 141,915 34,103 208, 592 64,371 23, 969
515,752 307, 202 126,907 144,997 35, 298 208, 550 64, 730 23, 596
527, 030 314,886 131, 541 146, 505 36, 839 212,144 65, 094 23, 503
532,122 315, 606 128,569 150, 257 36, 779 216,516 65, 482 23,216
July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
537, 211
546, 722
552,604
561,063
565, 791
575, 657
323, 701
331, 080
338,94F
350, 906
355, 879
363,191
133,445
138, 086
142, 803
147, 053
151.139
157, 483
1976: Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May.
June.
581, 861
592,874
599, 224
600,927
608,077
619, 254
369, 316
378, 773
385,296
386,444
388,021
392,581
159,645
162,088
163.140
161,764
161, 840
161,198
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
36, 701
37,755
37, 655
37, 598
38, 689
38, 631
171,110 38, 562
177,576 39,110
183,143 39,014
185,757 38, 922
186, 473 39, 708
191,758 39, 626
153,556
155, 239
158, 488
166, 255
166,051
167,077
623, 580 397, 719 161, 399 197, 204
632,291 404, 314 161,433 202,979
633,560 407, 663 161, 505 206,319
635,062 408, 590 161,545 207, 275
643, 643 415,399 161,711 212, 986
652, 457 421, 276 163, 992 216, 669
1
2
39,115
39,902
39, 839
39, 769
40, 702
40, 615
Other «
124,173
130, 557
3,644
4,883
116,870
118,057
116,812
116,781
120, 060
124,173
3,438
3,442
3,440
3,443
3,487
3,644
213,510
215,642
213,658
210,157
209,911
212, 466
65, 872
66.176
66, 473
66, 812
67.177
67, 464
22, 203
21, 551
21,468
21,220
21, 283
21, 565
[21,710
124, 084
[21,865
[18,220
L17,486
[19,385
3,726
3,830
3,850
3,904
3,964
4,052
212, 544
214,100
213, 928
214,484
220,056
226, 673
67, 826
68,170
68, 567
68, 968
69,394
69, 733
21,601
21, 689
21,669
21,612
21,515
21,500
L19,041
[20,105
L19,438
L19,453
L24, 570
[30, 557
4,076
4,138
4,254
4,449
4,577
4,883
225,861
227, 977
225, 897
226,472
228, 243
231,181
70, 428
71,079
70,752
71,113
71, 506
71,853
21,357
20,967
20,814
22, 290
22, 487
22, 299
[28,912
[30, 591
28, 640
,27,162
.27, 405
.29, 744
5,164
5,340
5,690
5,906
6,845
7,285
Includes Treasury bonds and minor amounts of Panama Canal and postal savings bonds.
Nonmarketable certificates of indebtedness, notes, and bonds in the Treasury foreign series and foreign-currencyseries issues.
3
Includes Treasury deposit funds and some special issues formerly included in "Other".
4
Includes depository bonds, retirement plan bonds, Rural Electrification Administration bonds, State and local bonds,
and special issues held only by U.S. Government agencies and trust funds and the Federal home loan banks.
5
Includes $5,610 million in certificates not shown separately.
Source: Department of the Treasury.
274
TABLE B-76.—Estimated ownership of public debt securities^ 1967-76
[Par values;1 billions of dollars)
Total public debt securities
Held by private investors
Held
Held by
Total 2 Govern- Federal
Reserve
ment
accounts Banks
End of year or
month
Totals
Commercial
banks *
Mutual
savings
State
Miscelbanks
and in- Corpo- and local Indi- 7 laneous
5 govern- viduals
invessurance rations
ments «
tors 3 8
companies
Fiscal year:
1967
1968
1969
322.9
345.4
352.9
71.8
76.1
84.8
46.7
52.2
54.1
204.4
217.0
214.0
55.5
59.7
55.3
13.2
12.5
11.6
11.0
12.0
11.1
23.6
25.1
26.4
70.4
74.2
77.3
30.7
33.4
32.3
1970
1971
1972. .
1973
1974
370.1
397.3
426.4
457.3
474.2
95.2
102.9
111.5
123.4
138.2
57.7
65.5
71.4
75.0
80.5
217.2
228.9
243.6
258.9
255.6
52.6
61.0
60.9
58.8
53.2
10.4
10.3
10.2
9.6
8.5
8.5
7.4
9.3
9.8
10.8
29.0
25.9
26.9
28.8
28.3
81.8
75.4
73.2
75.9
80.7
35.0
49.1
63.2
76.0
74.2
1975
1976
533.2
620.4
145.3
149.6
84.7
94.4
303.2
376.4
69.0
91.8
10.6
15.6
13.2
25.0
29.6
39.5
87.1
96.4
93.6
108.0
494.1
499.7
509 7
516.7
528.2
533.2
139.0
139.8
138.5
138.0
140.9
145.3
81.3
81.1
81.4
87.8
85.6
84.7
273.8
278.9
289.8
290.9
301.7
303.2
54.6
56.5
61.8
64.1
67.7
69.0
8.9
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
10.6
11.3
11.4
12.0
12.5
13.7
13.2
30.0
30.5
29.7
29.8
29.8
29.6
85.3
85.3
85.7
86.1
86.6
87.1
83.8
86.2
91.1
88.5
93.4
93.6
538.2
547.7
553.6
562.0
566.8
576.6
142.5
144.8
142.3
138.9
137 7
139.3
81.9
82.5
87.0
87.2
85.1
87.9
313.8
320.4
324.4
336.0
343.9
349.4
71.8
74.8
78.3
79.3
82.2
85.1
11.1
11.4
11.7
12.1
13.2
13.8
16.2
16.0
15.0
17.5
20.0
20.2
31.3
31.2
32.2
33.8
33.9
33.8
87.6
88.7
89.6
90.6
91.0
91.4
95.8
98.4
97.7
102.7
103.6
105.1
584.4
593.9
600.5
602.0
610.7
620.4
139.3
139.8
139.1
139.1
143.7
149.6
89.8
89.0
89.8
91.8
90.5
94.4
355.3
365.0
371.7
371.0
376.4
376.4
86.0
87.2
91.9
91.7
91.6
91.8
14.7
15.0
15.5
15.4
15.7
15.6
21.2
23.2
23.0
23.8
26.0
25.0
34.6
36.4
37.8
37.7
37.6
39.5
91.7
93.9
94.5
94.7
95.9
96.4
107.2
109.5
108.9
107.6
109.7
108.0
624.5
633.3
634.7
637.6
644.6
653.5
147.6
148.0
146.1
144.6
144.9
145.0
90.7
94.0
96.4
95.7
91.7
97.0
386.2
391.3
392.2
397.3
408.1
411.5
94.0
92.5
93.3
94.8
99.8
16.4
17.0
16.9
17.4
17.6
27.0
27.8
25.7
24.7
24.2
37.2
38.7
39.1
41.5
42.1
97.1
99.7
99.7
100.0
100.7
114.7
115.5
117.5
118. £
123.7
1975: Jan
Feb..
Mar
Apr
May.
June
July...
Aug
Sept..
Oct
Nov
Dec...
.
.
. .
1976: Jan
Feb
Mar .
.
Apr....
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct...
Nov p
Dec
.
* U.S. savings bonds, series A-F and J, and U.S. savings notes are included at current redemption value.
2 As of July 31, 1974, public debt outstanding has been adjusted to exclude the notes of the International Monetary
Fund to conform with the Budget presentation. This adjustment applies to the 1967-76 data in this table.
3 For comparability with 1975-76 published data, published data for 1967-74 have been adjusted to exclude notes of
the International Monetary Fund. These adjustments amounted to $3.3 billion in 1967, $2.2 billion in 1968, and $0.8 billion
in each year 1969 through 1974. These adjustments were necessary in order to add to the total public debt figures as
published by the Department of the Treasury.
4
Includes commercial banks, trust companies, and stock savings banks in the United States and Territories and island
possessions; figures exclude securities held in trust departments. Since the estimates in this table are on the basis of par
values and include holdings of banks in United States Territories and possessions, they do not agree with the estimates
in 8
Table B-58, which are based on book values and relate only to banks within the United States.
Exclusive of banks and insurance companies.
• Includes trust, sinking, and investment funds of State and local governments and their agencies, and of Territories
and possessions.
7
Includes partnerships and personal trust accounts.
8
Includes savings and loan associations, nonprofit institutions, corporate pension trust funds, dealers and brokers,
certain government deposit accounts and goveinment-sponsoied agencies, and investments of foreign balances and international accounts in this country.
Source: Department of the Treasury.
275
TABLE B-77.—Average length and maturity distribution of marketable interest-bearing
public debt held by private investors, 1967—76
Maturity class
End of year or month
Amount
outstanding
Within
1 year
Ito5
years
5 to 10
years
10 to 20
years
20 years
and over
Millions of dollars
Average length
Years
Months
Fiscal year:
1967..
1968..
1969..
150,321
159, 671
156, 008
56, 561
66, 746
69,311
53, 584
52, 295
50,182
21,057
21,850
18, 078
6,153
6,110
6,097
12,968
12, 670
12,337
1970...
1971...
1972..
1973...
1974..
157, 910
161, 863
165, 978
167, 869
164,862
76, 443
74, 803
79, 509
84, 041
87,150
57, 035
58, 557
57,157
54,139
50,103
8,286
14, 503
16, 033
16, 385
14,197
7,876
6,357
6,358
8,741
9,930
8,272
7,645
6,922
4,564
3,481
1975...
1976...
210, 382
279, 782
115,677
150,296
65, 852
90, 578
15, 385
24, 169
8,857
8,087
4,611
6,652
1975:Jan...
Feb...
Mar-.
Apr_.
May..
JuneJuly..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
183,411
189, 375
198, 298
198, 857
209,149
210, 382
101,258
105, 341
108, 627
108, 820
115,374
115,677
55, 803
56, 765
61,086
61, 670
64, 510
65, 852
13, 487
13,190
15, 330
14, 209
15, 630
15, 385
8,665
9,834
9,177
10,181
8,902
8,857
4,198
4,245
4,079
3,978
4,733
4,611
9
6
221, 630
228, 446
232, 246
243, 786
251,159
255, 860
123,466
129, 571
130, 641
136, 249
145, 336
150,116
69,318
69, 176
72, 223
78,164
74,517
74, 657
15, 427
15,611
15,514
15, 541
16,771
16, 689
8,813
8,738
8,647
8,637
8,589
8,524
4,606
5,350
5,222
5,196
5,946
5,876
6
7
7
6
6
5
1976: Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
259, 831
270, 625
276, 434
275, 520
278, 929
279, 782
152,077
151,875
154,258
153, 441
153,464
150,294
75,179
82, 484
86, 214
86, 198
86, 242
90, 578
18,310
21,707
21,538
21,597
24, 336
24,169
8,466
8,417
8,350
8,242
8,172
8,087
5,800
6,142
6,074
6,042
6,716
6,654
5
6
5
5
7
7
July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.
289, 044
293, 627
294, 595
296,211
307, 309
307, 843
156,595
153,304
153, 302
155, 179
158, 422
157, 469
91,042
93, 396
94, 845
91,795
101,684
103, 747
26, 694
31,523
31,247
33, 922
31, 349
31,019
8,059
7,986
7,939
7,897
7,511
7,399
6,654
7,418
7, 262
7,419
8,345
8,209
6
10
9
9
10
9
Note.—All issues classified to final maturity.
Source: Department of the Treasury.
276
6
3
1
11
CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE
TABLE B-78.—Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
1946-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits after tax with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments
Year or quarter
1946
1947
1948
1949
Corporate
profits with
inventory
valuation
and capital
consumption
adjustments
Corporate
profits
tax liability
Total
Dividends
Undistributed
profits with
inventory
valuation
and capital
consumption
adjustments
16 6
22.2
29.1
26.9
9.1
11.3
12.4
10.2
7 5
10.9
16.7
16.7
5 6
6.3
7.0
7.2
2 0
4 6
9.7
9.5
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
33.7
38.1
35 4
35.5
34.6
17.9
22.6
19.4
20.3
17.6
15.7
15.5
16.0
15.2
17.0
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.1
6.9
7.0
7 5
6.4
7.9
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
44.6
42.9
42.1
37.5
48.2
22.0
22.0
21.4
19.0
23.6
22.6
20.9
20 6
18.5
24.6
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.3
12.2
12.2
9.8
91
7.2
12.4
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
46.6
46.9
54 9
59.6
67.0
22.7
22.8
24.0
26.2
28.0
23.9
24.1
30 9
33.4
39.0
12.9
13.3
14 4
15.5
17.3
11.0
10.8
16 5
17 9
21.7
77.1
82.5
79.3
85.8
81.4
30.9
33.7
32.5
39.4
39.7
46.2
48.9
46 8
46.4
41.8
19.1
19.4
20 1
21.9
22.6
27 1
29.4
26 7
24.4
19.2
67.9
77.2
92.1
99.1
84.8
34.5
37.7
41.5
48.7
52.4
33 4
39.5
50.5
50.4
32.4
22.9
23.0
24.6
27.8
30.8
10 5
16.5
25.9
22.6
1.7
91.6
118.7
49.2
64.7
42.4
53.9
32.1
35.1
10 3
18.8
1974: 1
II
III
IV
95.7
87.8
81.7
74.1
50.5
53.0
57.6
48.6
45.2
34.8
24.1
25.5
29.9
30.7
31.3
31.1
15.3
4.1
-7.2
-5.6
1975: 1 .
69.0
86.6
105.3
105.6
40.2
44.8
54.8
57.2
28.8
41.8
50.4
48.4
31.7
31.9
32.6
32.2
-2.9
9.9
17.9
16.2
115.1
116.4
122.0
61.4
63.5
65.1
53.7
52.9
56.8
33.1
34.4
35.4
20.6
18.5
21.4
.
.
1965
1966
1967
1968..
1969
. .
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
..
1975
1976*
III
I
V
1976: 1
II
III . . .
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ - 19
224-250 O - 77
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
277
TABLE B-79.—Corporate profits by industry, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment
Domestic industries
1
Financial
Year or
quarter
Total
Total
Total
1933
-1.2
.
1939
._
Other
Total
Manufacturing*
Transportation,
Wholecomsale
municaand
tion,
retail
and
trade
services3
Rest
of the
world
Other
1.3
0.0
1.3
8.9
5.2
1.0
1.8
0.9
0.2
-1.2
.3
.0
.3
-1.5
-.4
-.5
.0
-.7
.0
6.1
.8
.0
.8
5.3
3.3
.7
1.0
.3
.2
5.5
9.5
11.8
13.8
13.2
9.7
9.0
13.6
17.6
16.2
1.2
1.4
2.2
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.8
4.6
5.5
4.5
1.3
2.0
3.4
4.4
3.9
2.7
1.8
2.2
3.0
3.0
.6
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.9
3.6
3.1
.2
.2
.2
.2
.3
.2
.4
.7
.8
.8
10.2
10.5
1929 . .
Federal
Reserve
banks
Nonfinancia L
6.3
1940
1941
1942
1943.
1944...
1945
1946 .
1947
1948
1949
9.8
15.2
20.3
24.4
23.8
19 2
19.3
25.6
33.0
30.8
9.6
15.0
20.1
24.1
23.5
18.9
18.9
24.9
32.2
29.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.6
1.7
2.1
1.7
2.6
3.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.1
.1
.2
.2
.9
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.6
1.6
2.0
1.6
2.3
2.9
8.6
14.0
18.9
22.8
21.9
17.3
16.8
23.2
29.6
26.8
1950
1951
1952
1953 .
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
37.6
42.7
39.8
39.5
37 8
46.7
45.9
45.4
40.8
51.2
36.7
41.5
38.7
38.4
36.4
45.1
44.1
43.5
39.1
49.4
3.1
3.6
4.0
4.5
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.7
6.8
.2
.3
.4
.4
.3
.3
.5
.6
.6
.7
3.0
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.6
5.1
6.0
33.5
37.9
34.7
33.9
31.8
40.3
39.1
38.3
33.5
42.6
20.9
24.6
21.7
22.0
19.9
26.0
24.7
24.0
19.4
26.2
5.0
5.0
4.8
3.8
3.8
5.0
4.5
4.4
4.6
5.9
4.0
4.6
4.9
5.0
4.7
5.6
5.9
5.8
5.9
7.0
3.6
3.7
3.3
3.1
3.4
3.6
4.1
4.0
3.6
3.5
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
48.9
48.7
53.7
57.6
64.2
73.3
78.6
75.6
82.1
77.9
47.0
46.3
51.1
54.9
61.0
70.1
75.9
72.6
78.9
74.2
7.2
7.0
7.3
6.8
6.9
7.5
8.5
9.0
10.4
11.3
1.0
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.4
1.7
2.0
2.5
3.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
5.8
5.8
6.2
6.8
7.0
7.9
8.2
39.8
39.3
43.8
48.1
54.1
62.5
67.4
63.6
68.5
62.9
23.9
23.0
26.0
28.7
31.9
38.3
41.6
37.9
41.2
36.8
4.9
4.9
5.7
5.9
7.4
7.9
8.0
8.9
10.1
10.1
7.4
7.8
8.4
9.3
9.9
11.0
11.8
10.7
10.7
10.2
3.5
3.6
3.8
4.2
4.9
5.3
6.0
6.1
6.5
5.8
1.9
2.3
2.6
2.6
3.1
3.3
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.7
66.4
76.9
89.6
97.2
87.8
103.1
134 2
62.6
72.4
84.7
90.4
76.7
97.0
126 8
12.6
14.1
15.4
16.2
14.1
12.9
14 3
3.6
3.3
3.4
4.5
5.7
5.7
60
9.0
10.8
12.1
11.7
8.4
7.2
83
50.1
58.2
69.3
74.1
62.6
84.1
112 5
27.1
32.4
40.6
44.1
36.9
46.4
66.3
9.4
11.7
13.3
14.7
12.4
20.9
8.2
8.3
9.0
8.3
6.0
7.9
5.3
5.8
6.4
7.0
7.2
9.0
3.8
4.6
AA
6.8
11.2
6.2
7.:
1974: 1
IL.__
III
IV
95.9
89.7
85.2
80.4
81.4
80.8
75.1
69.5
14.8
14.0
14.6
13.1
5.4
5.7
5.9
6.0
9.4
8.3
8.7
7.1
66.6
66.8
60.5
56.3
39.4
39.0
37.7
31.6
15.1
14.4
9.4
10.6
5.7
6.4
6.3
5.7
6.3
7.0
7.2
8.3
14.6
9.C
10.1
ll.C
1975: 1
IL.._
III...
IV....
77.7
97.9
117.9
119.1
72.1
91.7
111.4
112.7
13.9
12.5
12.1
12.9
5.8
5.7
5.4
5.8
8.1
6.8
6.7
7.1
58.2
79.2
99.3
99.8
29.7
43.5
57.0
55.3
14.5
19.6
24.4
25.0
5.0
7.3
9.5
9.7
9.0
8.9
8.4
9.7
5.J
6.C
6.E
6.4
1976: 1
ll_-_III...
129.6
131.8
137.6
121.9
125.0
130.5
14.0
13.8
14.4
6.1
5.9
5.9
7.9
7.9
8.5
107.9
111.2
116.0
61.2
66.4
67.2
29.0
26.6
28.8
8.6
9.5
10.7
9.1
8.8
9.3
7J
S.I
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975 . .
1976 v
-
See footnotes at end of table.
278
l.'t
T A B L E R-79.—Corporate profits by industry, 1929-76— Continued
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Corporate profits before deduction of capital consumption allowances, with inventory valuation adjustment
Domestic industries
Financial
Nonfinancia!
L
Year or
quarter
Total
Total
Total
Federal
Reserve
banks
Other
Total
Manufacturing2
TransportaWholetion,
sale
comand
municaretail
tion,
trade
and
services 3
Rest
of the
world
Other
0.2
1929...
14.7
14.4
1.4
0.0
1.4
13.0
7.1
1.3
2.9
1.7
1933...
2.6
2.6
.4
.0
.4
2.2
1.3
-.2
1.1
.0
.0
1939
10.1
9.9
.9
.0
.9
9.0
4.9
1.0
2.0
1.1
.2
1940
1941
1942..
1943
1944
1945...
1946..
1947
1948
1949
13.6
19.5
25.4
29.7
29.9
25.5
24.0
31.4
40.0
38.7
13.4
19.3
25.2
29.5
29.6
25.3
23.6
30.7
39.2
37.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.7
1.7
2.2
1.8
2.7
3.3
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.1
1.1
12.3
18.1
23.9
28.1
27.9
23.6
21.4
28.9
36.5
34.6
7.2
11.4
14.2
16.6
16.5
13.0
11.2
16.3
20.8
19.8
1.5
1.7
2.6
3.3
3.5
3.6
4.2
5.2
6.2
5.4
2.3
3.1
4.8
5.8
5.5
4.6
3.0
3.6
4.7
4.8
1.4
1.9
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.9
3.8
4.8
4.6
.2
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.6
2.1
1.7
2.5
3.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
46.5
53.0
51.3
52.7
52.8
64.1
64.9
66.3
62.9
74.8
45.5
51.8
50.2
51.6
51.4
62.6
63.1
64.4
61.2
73.0
3.3
3.8
4.2
4.8
4.9
5.2
5.4
5.7
6.1
7.3
.2
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.4
4.6
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.5
6.5
42.2
48.0
46.0
46.8
46.5
57.4
57.7
58.7
55.0
65.7
24.9
29.1
26.9
28.3
27.1
34.3
33.6
33.9
29.8
37.1
6.0
6.2
6.1
5.1
5.2
6.7
6.3
6.5
6.6
8.0
6.1
7.1
7.6
8.1
8.2
9.8
10.3
10.5
10.9
12.5
5.2
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.9
6.6
7.4
7.8
7.6
8.0
1.0
?
74.1
75.3
84.2
90.0
98.7
110.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.6
7.9
8.5
9.6
10.2
11.8
13.0
2.0
2.5
3.1
6.8
6.9
7.1
6.6
6.7
7.2
7.9
8.2
9.3
9.9
64.4
65.3
73.6
79.8
87.7
99.0
106.9
106.5
115.1
114.2
35.5
35.2
40.2
43.9
48.0
55.9
60.5
58.7
63.9
61.5
7.3
7.4
8.4
8.7
10.4
11.1
11.5
12.7
14.3
14.9
13.3
14.0
15.4
16.8
17.9
19.6
21.3
21.0
21.9
22.4
8.4
8.8
9.6
10.4
11.4
12.3
13.6
14.1
15.0
15.4
1.9
2.3
2.6
2.6
3.1
3.3
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.7
.1
.2
.4
.4
g
.5
.6
.6
.7
1.0
.8
.9
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.2
.2
.2
.3
.2
.4
.7
.8
.8
.1
4
.6
.8
.9
.7
1.8
1960
1961
1962 . .
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968. . .
1969
119.3
119.7
130.2
130.9
72.2
72.9
81.5
87.4
95.6
107.5
116.5
116.7
127.0
127.2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975...
1976 p
123.0
137.8
157.4
170.9
169.4
192.6
231.5
119.2
133.3
152.6
164.1
158.2
186.4
224.1
14.5
16.3
18.0
19.5
17.9
17.3
19.3
3.6
3.4
3.4
4.5
5.7
5.7
6.0
11.0
13.0
14.7
14.9
12.2
11.6
13.3
104.7
116.9
134.6
144.6
140.3
169.1
204.8
53.1
59.8
69.9
75.0
70.9
83.1
105.9
14.7
17.5
20.2
22.1
20.7
30.0
21.4
23.2
26.3
27.4
27.3
31.3
15.5
16.4
18.3
20.2
21.5
24.7
3.8
4.6
4.8
6.8
11.2
6.2
7.3
1974: 1
II....
III...
IV....
174.4
170.2
168.2
164.8
159.8
161.3
158.1
153.8
18.3
17.7
18.5
17.1
5.4
5.7
5.9
6.0
13.0
12.0
12.5
11.2
141.5
143.6
139.6
136.7
72.3
72.6
72.4
66.3
23.0
22.6
17.8
19.3
26.0
27.3
27.8
27.9
20.2
21.1
21.6
23.2
14.6
9.0
10.1
11.0
1975: 1
II....
III...
IV....
164.1
185.8
208.4
211.9
158.5
179.5
201.9
205.6
18.1
16.8
16.6
17.6
5.8
5.7
5.4
5.8
12.3
11.1
11.2
11.8
140.5
162.8
185.3
188.0
65.4
79.6
94.2
93.4
23.3
28.6
33.7
34.5
27.6
30.2
33.1
34.1
24.1
24.4
24.3
26.0
5.5
6.3
6.5
6.4
1976: 1
IL...
III...
223.9
228.0
235.9
216.2
221.2
228.7
18.8
18.7
19.5
6.1
6.0
5.9
12.7
12.8
13.6
197.4
202.5
209.2
99.7
105.5
107.2
38.6
36.4
38.9
33.3
34.8
36.4
25.8
25.7
26.7
7.7
6.8
7.2
1.7
1
Consists of the following industries: Banking; credit agencies other than banks; security and commodity brokers'
dealers, and services; insurance carriers; regulated investment companies; small business investment companies; and
real estate investment trusts.
2
See Table B-80 for industry detail.
3
Services consists of electric, gas, and sanitary services.
Note.—The industry classification is en a ccrrpsny basis and is based en the 1867 Standard Industrial Classification
beginning with 1948 and en the 1942 Standard Industrial Classification prior to 1948.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
279
TABLE B—80.—-Corporate profits of manufacturing industries, 1929—76
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment
Nondurable goods
Year or
quarter
Total
ChemFood
manuicals
and
facturand
ing Total kindred allied
prod- products
ucts
Durable goods
Petroleum
and
Other Total
coal
products
1929
5.2
2.6
2.6
1933
-.4
.0
ElectriMotor
Primary Fabri- Machincal
ery,
vehicles
metal
cated
except equipand
Other
ment
indusmetal electriequipand
tries products
cal
ment
supplies
-.4
1939
3 3
1.7
1.7
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
5 5
9.5
11 8
13 8
13.2
9.7
2.4
1.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
20.9
24.6
?1 7
2?.O
19.9
26.0
24.7
24.0
19.4
26.2
8.9
11.4
9.9
10.1
9.4
11.8
11.9
10.7
10.0
12.7
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
23,9
23.0
26.0
28 7
31.9
38.3
41.6
37.9
41.?
36.8
11.9
11.7
11.9
1?.8
14.4
15.8
18.0
17.3
18.8
17.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 v
?7.1
32.4
40.6
44.1
36 9
46.4
66.3
1—
II..
III.
IV..
1...
II..
III.
IV..
1974:
1975:
1976:
2.8
1.9
3.7
3.1
6.4
7.2
8.1
7.4
4.5
2.4
5.8
7.5
2.8
8.1
1.5
2.3
2.8
2.3
2.2
2.2
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.5
3.4
2.3
2.7
2.7
2.3
4.1
3.6
3.3
4.2
12.0
13.2
11.7
11.9
10.5
14.3
12.8
13.3
9.3
13.5
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.8
2.6
3.3
3.1
3.2
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.6
3.9
4.5
4.8
4.2
5.0
4.6
2.5
2.2
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.8
3.6
3.3
4.2
4.0
4.3
4.5
5.3
5.8
6.7
6.2
7.0
6.9
16.8
17.3
18.1
20.1
25.1
29.2
37.5
3.5
3.3
2.8
2.2
2.6
5.8
3.9
4.2
5.0
5.8
4.9
5.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
4.9
10.1
9.3
39,4
39.0
37.7
31.6
23.8
26.9
27.0
22.6
2.8
4.2
1.8
1.6
5.6
5.3
4.8
7.4
10.0
13.5
29.7
43.5
57.0
55.3
21.3
28.7
32.6
34.3
5.0
6.0
6.3
6.0
3.5
1... 61.2
II.. 66.4
III. 67.2
37.5
35.6
37.6
7.3
6.1
8.0
9.0
13.6
17.fi
16.2
3.1
4.6
5.7
5.9
5.2
6.6
7.8
10.0
8.1
0.8
.7
1.2
3.1
1.9
2.5
1.7
2.9
3.0
3.0
1.9
2.3
1.1
1.3
1.0
.9
.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
.9
1.0
1.6
2.3
2.3
1.9
1.7
1.7
2.1
2.0
1.4
2.1
12.0
11.3
14.1
15.9
17.5
22.6
23. 5
20.6
22.4
19.2
2.1
1.5
1.6
1.9
2.4
3.1
3.6
2.7
2.0
1.4
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.9
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.9
5.8
6.2
6.8
7.2
7.5
8.4
10.3
15.1
22.5
24.0
11.9
17.2
28.8
.9
.5
1.6
2.0
4.9
3.6
1.2
1.3
2.1
2.6
1.5
3.1
15.6
l?.l
10.7
9.0
2.7
9.7
8.0
7.4
7.0
7.4
4.5
6.7
5.9
5.3
6.8
7.3
7.5
10.1
9.2
10.4
5.3
7.3
10.4
10.6
8.4
14.8
24.3
21.1
5.9
2.9
2.7
2.7
8.3
8.2
8.5
11.2
10.4
10.1
23.7
30.7
29.6
3.3
3.6
5.9
10.9
4.5
3.5
4.3
4.1
5.9
6.5
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.6
2.2
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.6
2.1
3.9
2.3
2.8
2.7
3.0
3.3
2.6
2.1
2.5
2.1
2.1
4.4
3.6
3.3
2.9
3.6
10.8
10.8
See footnotes at end of table.
280
1.3
0.7
.8
1.2
.3
.5
.4
1.4
1.9
2.1
1.7
3.1
2.4
2.4
?.6
2.8
? /
?.7
.2
.1
2.6
2.1
4.1
.2
2.2
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.6
2.6
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.2
3.0
2.5
4.0
4.9
4.7
6.1
5.1
3.9
5.5
4.8
?.9
3.1
3.6
3.?
4.3
2.7
2.7
3.9
4.5
1.7
4.6
1.1
1.8
3.0
2.6
.4
1.2
1.4
4.9
5.9
5.8
.2
.9
3.0
3.8
6.C
6.6
3.?
3.8
1.8
1.7
.5
1.8
3.6
2.0
.0
1.0
1.6
.7
-.3
-.3
-.1
5.9
4.0
1.6
.0
2.2
.7
1.8
3.1
4.1
3.5
3.0
4.3
.4
1.3
1.7
1.4
-3.4
.2
.7
3.2
6.1
5.4
1.8
1.8
2.3
2.4
3.1
3.8
4.4
4.0
4.1
3.6
5.8
5.2
.5
1.3
1.7
1.8
2.5
2.6
2.6
.9
2.9
-.7
3.9
2.8
2.9
3.5
3.?
3.1
?.f
3.4
5.0
5.2
4.8
5.f
5.2
4.6
4.E
6.1
5.5
7.3
l.i
TABLE B-80.—Corporate profits of manufacturing industries, 1929-76—Continued
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Corporate profits before deduction of capital consumption allowances, with inventory valuation adjustment
Nondurable goods
Year or
Durable goods
Total
manuFood Chem- PetroMotor
icals
facturleum
Primary Fabri- Machin- Electri- vehicles
and
cal
ery
ing Total kindred and
and
cated
metal
except equipand
allied
coal Other Total indus- metal electri- ment and equip- Other
prod- prod- prodtries products
ucts
upplies ment
cal
ucts
ucts
quarter
3.4
1929
7.1
3.6
1933
1.3
1.1
.2
4.9
2.6
2.3
1940.
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
3.4
7.2
11 4 4 1
5.9
14.2
16.6
7.1
7.5
16.5
13.0
7.0
11.2
7.9
16.3
9.3
20.8 11.8
19.8 10.1
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.1
3.4
2.6
4.2
3.4
3.8
7.2
8.4
9.5
9.0
6.0
3.3
6.9
9.0
9.7
1.9
1.9
1.0
.9
1.5
1.6
0.8
.9
1.6
2.3
2.2
2.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
24.9
29.1
26.9
28.3
27.1
34.3
33.6
33.9
29.8
37.1
11.1
13.9
12.7
13.2
13.1
16.0
16.5
15.7
15.4
18.4
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.9
2.5
2.6
3.0
3.6
2.7
3.2
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.6
4.6
3.1
3.6
3.2
3.9
4.1
4.6
4.9
4.4
4.0
4.5
3.3
5.1
4.4
4.1
3.8
4.6
5.2
4.9
4.7
5.7
13.7
15.3
14.2
15.0
14.1
18.3
17.2
18.2
14.4
18.7
2.8
3.6
2.6
3.5
2.9
4.2
4.3
4.5
3.2
3.6
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.9
2.6
2.7
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.8
2.7
2.2
2.9
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
2.0
1.8
2.2
3.3
2.7
2.7
3.0
2.5
4.6
2.9
3.3
1.6
3.7
3.0
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.7
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
35.5
35.2
40.2
43.9
48.0
55.9
60.5
58.7
63.9
61.5
17.8
18.0
19.1
20.5
22.6
24.4
?7.?
27.1
29.3
29.2
3.2
3.4
3.6
4.0
4.2
4.0
4.9
4.7
4.9
4.8
4.4
4.5
4.8
5.3
5.7
6.5
6.8
6.3
7.3
7.1
4.5
4.3
4.4
4.7
5.1
5.8
6.3
7.2
7.3
7.1
5.8
5.7
6.2
6.5
7.5
8.1
9.2
8.9
9.9
10.2
17.7
17.2
21.1
23.3
25.5
31.4
33.3
31.6
34.6
32.3
3.4
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.3
5.1
5.7
5.0
4.5
4.0
1.4
1.5
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.8
3.4
3.5
4.3
5.2
5.8
5.7
6.0
5.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.3
3.4
4.0
4.0
4.1
3.7
4.0
3.5
5.2
6.3
6.3
8.0
7.5
6.4
8.1
7.5
4.4
4.6
5.3
5.8
6.2
7.2
7.4
7.4
8.7
8.5
1970 .
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 P
53.1
59.8
69.9
75.0
70.9
83.1
29.0
30.4
3?.?
35.1
40.9
46.3
5.6
5.5
5.1
4.8
5.3
8.8
6.6
7.1
8.2
9.0
8.3
9.4
7.6
7.9
8.0
9.7
15.1
14.7
9.2
9.9
10.8
11.6
12.1
13.4
24.1
29.4
37.6
39.9
30.0
36.8
3.5
3.1
4.1
4.6
8.2
6.9
2.3
2.4
3.2
3.8
2.8
4.6
5.2
5.4
6.8
7.6
5.0
8.3
2.9
3.8
5.1
4.9
3.1
4.0
3.8
7.3
8.4
8.3
3.2
4.3
6.5
7.5
9.9
10.6
7.7
8.8
1974:1...
II...
III..
IV..
72.3
72.6
72.4
66.3
39. 3
42.4
42.8
39.1
5.5
6.9
4.6
4.4
8.8
8.8
8.3
7.5
12.4
14.6
18.3
15.1
12.6
l?.l
11.7
12.1
33.0
30.2
29.6
27.2
5.7
7.7
10.0
9.2
3.1
3.1
1.9
3.2
6.9
5.3
3.6
4.3
4.2
3.3
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.5
4.7
2.6
10.3
8.3
6.9
b.4
1975:1...
II...
ML.
IV..
65.4
79.6
94.2
93.4
37.7
45. 5
50.1
52.1
7.9
8.9
9.3
9.0
7.1
9.0
10.5
11.1
12.5
15.4
14.8
16.1
10.2
12.1
15.5
15.9
27.7
34.2
44.1
41.3
9.4
6.1
6.1
6.0
3.3
4.5
5.6
5.0
6.5
8.0
9.6
9.0
3.2
4.0
4.5
4.2
-.1
3.5
7.2
6.6
5.4
8.0
11.1
10. b
1976:1... 99.7
II... 105.5
III.. 107.2
55.5
53.8
56.1
10.3
9.2
11.1
12.2
12.2
12.6
16.9
16.2
16.0
16.0
16.2
16.3
44.2
51.7
51.1
6.6
7.9
6.9
5.1
5.9
5.7
9.9
10.0
10.7
4.7
5.5
5.6
8.3
9.9
9.4
9.6
12. b
12.7
1939..
.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
281
TABLE B1-81.—Sales, profits, and stockholders' eqmtv, all manufacturing corporations,
1947-76
[Billions of dollars]
Ml
1 manufacturing
corporations
Year or
quarter
Nondurable goods
industries
Durable goods industries
Profits
Profits
Stock- Sales
Stock- Sales
StockBefore After holders' (net) Before After holders' (net) Before After holders'
equity 2
equity 2
equity 2
income income
income income
income income
taxes 1 taxes
taxes i taxes
taxes 1 taxes
Profits
Sales
(net)
1947
1948
1949
150.7
165.6
154.9
16.6
18.4
14.4
10.1
11.5
9.0
65.1
72.2
77.6
66.6
75.3
70.3
7.6
8.9
7.5
4.5
5.4
4.5
31.1
34.1
37.0
84.1
90.4
84.6
9.0
9.5
7.0
56
6.2
4.6
34 0
38.1
40.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
181.9
245.0
250.2
265.9
248.5
23.2
27.4
22.9
24.4
20.9
12.9
11.9
10.7
11.3
11.2
83.3
98.3
103.7
108.2
113.1
86.8
116.8
122.0
137.9
122.8
12.9
15.4
12.9
14.0
11.4
6.7
6.1
5.5
5.8
5.6
39.9
47.2
49.8
52.4
54.9
95.1
128.1
128.0
128.0
125.7
10.3
12.1
10.0
10.4
9.6
6.1
5.7
5.2
5.5
5.6
43.5
51 1
53.9
55.7
58.2
1955.
1956
1957
1958
1959
278.4
307.3
320.0
305.3
338.0
28.6
29.8
28.2
22.7
29.7
15.1
16.2
15.4
12.7
16.3
120.1
131.6
141.1
147.4
157.1
142.1
159.5
166.0
148.6
169.4
16.5
16.5
15.8
11.4
15.8
8.1
8.3
7.9
5.8
8.1
58.8
65.2
70.5
72.8
77.9
136.3
147.8
154.1
156.7
168.5
12.1
13.2
12.4
11.3
13.9
7.0
7.8
7.5
6.9
8.3
61.3
66 4
70.6
74.6
79 2
1960
1961
1962
1963 .
1964
345 7
356.4
389.9
412.7
443.1
27 5
27.5
31.9
34.9
39 6
15.2
15.3
17.7
19.5
23.2
165.4
172.6
181.4
189.7
199.8
173.9
175.2
195.5
209.0
226.3
14.0
13.6
16.7
18.5
21.2
7.0
6.9
8.6
9.5
11.6
82.3
84.9
89.1
93.3
98.5
171.8
181.2
194.4
203.6
216.8
13.5
13.9
15.1
16.4
18.3
82
8.5
9.2
10.0
11 6
83 1
87.7
92.3
96.3
101 3
492.2
554.2
575.4
631.9
694. 6
46.5
51.8
47.8
55.4
58.1
27.5
30.9
29.0
32.1
33.2
211.7
230.3
247.6
265.9
289.9
257.0
291.7
300.6
335.5
366.5
26.2
29.2
25.7
30.6
31.5
14.5
16.4
14.6
16.5
16.9
105.4
115.2
125.0
135.6
147.6
235.2
262.4
274.8
296.4
328.1
20.3
22.6
22.0
24.8
26.6
13.0
14.6
14.4
15.5
16.4
106.3
115.1
122.6
130.3
142.3
708 8
751.4
849.5
1,017.2
48 1
53.2
63.2
81.4
28 6
31.3
36.5
48.1
306.8
320.9
343.4
374.1
363.1
382.5
435.8
527.3
23.0
26.5
33.6
43.6
12.9
14.5
18.4
24.8
155.1
160.6
171.4
188.7
345.7
368.9
413.7
489.9
25.2
26.7
29.6
37.8
15.7
16.7
18.0
23.3
151.7
160.3
172.0
185.4
275.1
21.4
13.0
386.4 140.1
10.8
6.3
194.7 135.0
10.6
6.7
191.7
1, 060.6
1, 065.2
92.1
79.9
58.7
49.1
395.0 529.0
423.4 521.1
41.1
35.3
24.7
21.4
196.0 531.6
208.1 544.1
51.0
44.6
34.1
27.7
199.0
215.3
1973: IV
236.6
20.6
13.2
368.0 122.7
10.1
6.2
185.8 113.9
10.5
7.0
182.1
1974:1
II
Ill
IV
242.0
269.4
272.1
277.0
21.2
25.9
25.0
20.1
13.5
16.3
15.5
13.4
379.0
389.9
402.7
408.4
120.3
136.8
134.8
137.1
9.5
12.6
10.5
8.6
5.7
7.6
6.2
5.2
189.4
194.1
199.9
200.8
171.7
132.6
137.3
140.0
11.7
13.3
14.5
11.5
7.8
8.7
9.4
8.2
189.6
195.8
202.8
207.6
1975: |
II
Ill
IV
247.1
265.8
271.0
281.3
15.4
20.2
21.7
22.6
9.3
12.4
13.2
14.2
410.7
420.2
427.4
435.5
121.3
132.4
131.0
136.3
7.0
9.3
9.1
10.0
4.1
5.7
5.5
6.2
201.7
207.3
209.7
213.7
125.8
133.3
140.0
145.0
8.4
10.9
12.7
12.6
5.2
6.8
7.7
8.1
209.0
212.9
217.6
221.8
1976: 1
II
Ill
284.1
307.5
301.6
24.4
29.3
26.1
14.8
18.0
16.0
445.3 138.4
458.9 154.4
467.7 146.9
11.2
14.8
12.2
6.7
9.0
7.4
217.6 145.7
224.3 153.1
228.0 154.7
13.2
14.5
13.9
8.1
9.1
8.6
227.7
234.6
239.7
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
. ..
. .
1970
1971
1972
1973
1973: IV
New series: 8
1974
1975
1
In the old series, "income taxes" refers to Federal income taxes only, as State and local income taxes had already
been deducted. In the new series, no income taxes ha/e been dedicted.
2
Annual data are average equity for the year (using four end-of-quarter figures).
3
See "Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing Corporations, First Quarter 1974," Federal Trade Commission.
Note.—Data are not necessarily comparable from one period to another due to changes in accounting prccedures,
industry classifications, sampling prccedures, etc. For explanatory notes concerning ccrr pilaticn cf the series, see "Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing Corporations," Federal Trade Ccrrrrissicn.
Source: Federal Trade Commission.
282
TABLE B-82.—Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, all manufacturing corporations, 1947—76
Ratio of profits after
income taxes (annual rate)
to stockholders' equity—percent1
Profits after income taxes
per dollar of sales—cents
Year or quarter
All
manufacturing
corporations
Durable
goods
industries
Nondurable
goods
industries
All
manufacturing
corporations
Durable
goods
industries
Nondurable
goods
industries
1947
1948
1949
15.6
16.0
11.6
14.4
15.7
12.1
16.6
16.2
11.2
6.7
7.0
5.8
6.7
7.1
6.4
6.7
68
5.4
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
15.4
12.1
10.3
10.5
9.9
16.9
13.0
11 1
11.1
10.3
14.1
11.2
9 7
9.9
9.6
7.1
4.8
4.3
4.3
4.5
7.7
5.3
4.5
4.2
4.6
6.5
4.5
41
43
4.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
12.6
12.3
10.9
8.6
10.4
13 8
12.8
11.3
8.0
10.4
11.4
11.8
10.6
9.2
10.4
5.4
5.3
4.8
4.2
4.8
5.7
5.2
4.8
3.9
4.8
5 1
53
4.9
4.4
4.9
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
9.2
8.9
9.8
10.3
11.6
8.5
8 1
9.6
10.1
11.7
9.8
9 6
9.9
10.4
11.5
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.7
5.2
4.0
3.9
4.4
4.5
5.1
4.8
4 7
4.7
4.9
5.4
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
13.0
13.4
11.7
12.1
11.5
13.8
14.2
11.7
12.2
11.4
12.2
12.7
11.8
11.9
11.5
5.6
5.6
5.0
5.1
4.8
5.7
5.6
4.8
4.9
4.6
5.5
5.6
5.3
5.2
5.0
1970
1971
1972
1973
9.3
9.7
10.6
12.8
8.3
9.0
10.8
13.1
10.3
10.3
10.5
12.6
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.7
3.5
3.8
4.2
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.8
1973: IV
13.4
12.9
14.0
4.7
4.5
5.0
1974
1975
14.9
11.6
12.6
10.3
17.1
12.9
5.5
4.6
4.7
4.1
6.4
5.1
1973- IV
14.3
13.3
15.3
5.6
5.0
6.1
1974: 1
||
III
IV
14.3
16.7
15.4
13.2
12.1
15 6
12.3
10.4
16.4
17.8
18.5
15.8
5.6
6.0
5.7
4.8
4.8
5.5
4.6
3.8
6.4
6.6
6.8
5.9
1975: 1
II
Ill
IV
9.0
11.8
12.4
13.1
8.1
10.9
10.5
11.6
10.0
12.8
14.1
14.5
3.7
4.7
4.9
5.1
3.4
4.3
4.2
4.5
4.1
5.1
5.5
5.6
13.3
15.7
13.7
12.3
16.0
12.9
14.3
15.5
14.4
5.2
5.9
5.3
4.8
5.8
5.0
5.6
5.S
5.6
. .
New series: *
1976: 1
II . .
Ill
_. _ _
_._
I
1 Annual ratios based on average equity for the year (using four end-of-quarter figures). Quarterly ratios based on equity
at end of quarter only.
3 See "Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing Corporations, First Quarter 1974," Federal Trade Commission.
Note.—Based on data in millions of dollars.
See also Note, Table B-81.
Source: Federal Trade Commission.
283
TABLE B-83.—Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, all manufacturing corporations, by industry group, 1975-76
Ratio of profits after income
taxes (annual rate) to stockholders' equity—percent1
Profits after income taxes per
dollar of sales—cents
Industry
1975
III
1975
1976
1
IV
II
III
III
1976
IV
1
II
III
12.4
13.1
13.3
15.7
13.7
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.9
10.5
11.6
12.3
16.0
12.9
4.2
4.5
4.8
5.8
5.0
14.8
6.5
10.8
7.5
4.8
7.1
15.5
10.7
16.1
8.1
6.0
3.4
4.6
4.0
2.3
3.5
6.2
4.8
6.2
3.9
8.7
3.1
10.0
3.6
8.1
5.3
11.3
9.5
8.7
7.0
4.1
2.0
4.8
2.2
3.8
3.1
4.8
4.7
3.9
3.7
Fabricated metal products
14.8
Machinery, except electrical
13.2
Electrical and electronic equipment- 8.3
Transportation equipment.
7.5
12.6
14.5
10.5
11.6
15.0
14.9
10.2
16.8
17.7
16.2
13.5
20.7
15.8
15.5
11.9
10.5
4.7
6.3
3.0
2.5
4.0
6.8
3.7
3.6
4.8
7.2
3.7
5.1
5.3
7.5
4.6
5.8
4.9
7.7
4.2
3.5
Motor vehicles and equipment. 5.5
Aircraft, guided missiles, and
12.1
parts
12.5
18.8
23.1
9.1
2.1
4.3
6.0
6.9
3.3
10.9
12.3
14.0
13.0
3.3
2.9
3.4
3.6
3.7
Instruments and related products.. 15.1
Other durable manufacturing prod10.9
ucts
14.2
12.2
16.3
16.3
8.4
7.7
6.9
8.6
8.6
10.4
10.1
17.5
15.2
3.4
3.3
3.2
5.0
4.4
14.1
14.5
14.3
15.5
14.4
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.9
5.6
17.2
18.4
7.8
12.6
13.4
15.5
14.6
15.3
10.4
14.7
15.7
15.2
13.3
15.2
10.0
14.5
12.3
16.6
16.3
16.0
10.1
16.3
16.3
17.2
16.8
16.9
6.6
13.6
16.3
15.3
3.7
11.1
2.5
5.5
4.9
7.6
3.2
8.0
3.0
6.2
5.4
7.6
3.1
8.2
3.0
6.1
4.4
8.0
3.7
9.0
2.9
6.7
5.6
8.1
3.8
9.2
2.0
5.7
5.4
7.5
13.7
18.1
15.5
15.6
16.2
18.8
16.3
18.2
13.5
18.7
7.0
12.4
7.8
10.7
7.8
12.3
7.6
12.7
6.7
12.6
13.3
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.0
8.0
8.6
8.7
9.0
8.3
9.4
11.0
10.6
13.4
7.6
3.5
4.0
3.9
4.5
2.8
14.5
16.5
13.7
13.6
14.5
3.1
3.3
3.0
2.9
3.1
All manufacturing corporations
Durable goods industries.._
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Nondurable goods industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Industrial chemicals and synthetics
Drugs
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics
products
Other nondurable manufacturing
products
1
Ratios based on equity at end of quarter.
Source: Federal Trade Commission.
284
5.3
T A B L E B—84.—Sources and uses of funds,
nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business,
1946—76
[Billions of dollars]
Sources
Uses
External
Period
Total
Credit market funds
nternaP
Total
Total
Long- Shorterm 2 terms
Total
Other
PurInchase crease
of
in
physi- financal
cial
assets * assets
Discrepancy
(sources
less
uses)
.
18.4
26.7
28.4
19.7
7.8
12.6
18.8
19.3
10.6
14.1
9.7
.4
6.8
8.3
6.4
3.0
3.5
5.3
6.6
4.8
3.3
3.0
-.2
-1.8
3.7
5.8
3.3
-2.7
24.6
23.6
27.7
20.8
26.0
15.2
22.7
17.3
-1.4
8.4
5.0
3.5
-6.2
3.1
.8
-1.2
1950 .
1951 _.
1952
1953
1954 .
41.8
35.9
28.9
27.3
28.2
17.8
19.7
21.2
21.1
23.5
24.0
16.2
7.8
6.2
4.7
8.0
10.6
9.2
5.7
5.5
4.1
6.4
7.8
6.1
5.7
3.9
4.2
1.4
-.3
-.3
15.9
5.6
-1.4
.5
-.8
46.3
39.3
28.8
27.7
26.5
29.9
31.9
24.2
25.4
21.6
16.4
7.4
4.6
2.3
4.9
-4.5
-3.4
.2
-.4
1.7
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
51.4
43.8
41 8
41.1
55.4
28.8
28.7
30.4
29.6
35.0
22.6
15.1
11.4
11.5
20.4
9.5
12.6
11.8
10.3
12.7
5.7
7.3
9.9
10.3
8.3
3.8
5.4
1.9
-.0
4.4
13.0
2.5
-.4
1.2
7.7
48.3
40.7
38.7
38.4
51.9
31.8
36.7
34.5
27.6
37.7
16.5
4.0
4.2
10.8
14.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
2.6
3.6
1960
1961 _
1962
1963
1964 _.
47 6
54.1
58.9
65 9
72.6
34.7
35.3
41.6
44.5
50.1
12.9
18.8
17.3
21.4
22.5
11.9
12.1
12.4
12.4
15.0
7.5
10.5
9.5
8.3
8.9
4.5
1.6
2.9
4.1
6.1
1.0
6.7
4.9
9.0
7.4
40 6
50.1
54.9
58 9
64.2
38.0
36.9
43.8
44 8
50.8
2.7
13.2
11.1
14 2
13.4
7.0
4.0
4.0
6.9
8.4
1965
1966 . .
1967
1968
1969 .
90.8
96.9
93.3
114.5
118.6
56.1
60.5
61.3
62.3
61.7
34.7
36.4
32.0
52.2
56.9
20.4
25.6
28.9
31.9
38.4
9.2
16.0
21.0
18.9
20.8
11.2
9.6
7.9
13.0
17.7
14.4
10.9
3.1
20.3
18.5
82.1
88.6
89.4
106 4
113.4
61 9
76.0
72.6
77 6
85.0
20 2
12.6
16.8
28 8
28.4
8.7
8.3
3.9
81
5.2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
105.1
129.0
154.0
181.7
183.0
58.9
68.6
80.8
83.8
77.6
46.2
60.4
73.2
97.8
105.4
41.5
46.4
58.8
72.9
83.1
32.6
41.6
41.4
37.4
39.6
8.9
4.7
17.3
35.5
43.5
4.8
14.0
14.4
25.0
22.2
96 1
115.1
137.5
165 5
169.9
80 6
86.2
101.0
124 4
134.6
15 4
28.8
36.5
41 1
35.3
9.0
13.9
16.4
16.1
13.1
1975
145.5
103.4
42.1
37.1
49.8
-12.8
5.0
130.9
95.7
35.2
14.5
1946
1947
1948.
1949
.
._
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1975- 1
II
Ill
IV
83.5
130.7
171.0
196.7
83.5
101.5
113.6
114.9
0.0
29.2
57.4
81.8
35.0
32.1
31.1
50.0
52.9
54.4
37.9
54.0
-18.0
-22.2
-6.8
-4.0
-35.0
-2.9
26.3
31.7
68.6
115.3
157.9
182.2
89.8
80.9
106.8
105.5
-21.2
34.4
51.1
76.7
14.9
15.4
13.2
14.6
1976- 1
II
III
200.9
200.1
198.5
120.6
121.3
128.1
80.3
78.8
70.4
45.4
48.1
38.0
48.6
43.0
37.7
-3.1
5.0
.2
34.8
30.6
32.4
190.9
195.4
189.2
129.3
140.5
143.7
61.6
54.9
45.5
9.9
4.6
9.3
1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances,
and foreign branch profits.
2
Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.
3
Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances, and Government loans.
* Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
285
TABLE B-85.—Current assets and liabilities of U.S. corporations, 1939-76
[Billions of dollars]
Current assets
End of year
or quarter
Cash U.S.
on
Govhand ernTotal and
ment
in securibanks* ties a
54.5
60.3
72.9
83.6
93.8
97.2
97.4
108.1
123.6
133.0
133.1
161.5
179.1
186.2
190.6
194.6
224.0
237.9
244.7
255.3
277.3
289.0
306.8
10.8
13.1
13.9
17.6
21.6
21.6
21.7
22.8
25.0
25.3
26.5
28.1
30.0
30.8
31.1
33.4
34.6
34.8
34.9
37.4
36.3
37.2
41.1
2.2
2.0
4.0
10.1
16.4
20.9
21.1
15.3
14.1
14.8
16.8
19.7
20.7
19.9
21.5
19.2
23.5
19.1
18.6
18.8
22.8
20.1
20.0
254.7 34.8
1961
269.7 37.1
1962
288.2 39.8
1963
305.6 40.5
1964
1965
336.0 42.8
364.0 41.9
1966
386.2 45.5
1967
1968 . . . . 426.5 48.2
1969
473.6 47.9
492.3 50.2
1970
1971
529.6 53.3
1972 . . . . . . 573.5 57.5
1973
643.3 61.6
712.2 62.7
1974
731.6 68.1
1975
698.4 60.6
1975: 1.
II
703.2 63.7
716.5 65.6
III
IV... . 731.6 68.1
1976: 1.
753.5 68.4
II.
775.4 70.8
791.8 71.1
Ill
16.5
16.8
16.7
15.8
14.4
13.0
10.3
11.5
10.6
7.7
11.0
9.3
11.0
11.7
19.4
12.1
12.7
14.3
19.4
21.7
23.3
23.9
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
.
Current liabilities
AdReNet
vances
Fedceiv- Notes
and
Other
Notes
eral Other workand
ables
ing
Inprecurand
incuracfrom
capipayvenaccounts tories rent Total ments, counts come rent
U.S.
tal
astax
liaGov- receivU.S.
sets*
pay- liabili- biliern- 3 able
Govable
ties
ties 5
ment
ernment3
All corporations«
22.1
23.9
27.4
23.3
21.9
21.8
23.2
30.0
3*1.3
42 .4
42 .0
1 1 55.7
2.7
58.8
2.8
64.6
2.6
65.9
2.4
71.2
2.3
86.6
2.6
95.1
2.8
99.4
2.8 106.9
2.9 117.7
3.1 126.1
3.4 135.8
0.1
.6
4.0
5.0
4.7
2.7
18.0
19.8
25.6
27.3
27.6
26.8
26.3
37.6
44.6
48.9
45.3
55.1
64.9
65.8
67.2
65.3
72.8
80.4
82.2
81.9
88.4
91.8
95.2
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
3
.4
> 4
,7
.6
.6
4
1.7
2.1
2.4
2.4
3.1
4.2
5.9
6.7
7.5
9.1
10.6
11.4
30.0
32.8
40.7
47.3
51.6
51.7
45.8
51.9
61.5
64.4
60.7
79.8
92.6
96.1
98.9
99.7
121.0
130.5
133.1
136.6
153.1
160.4
171.2
21.9
22.6
0.6
.8
25.6
2.0
24.0
2.2
24.1
1.8
25.0
.9
24.8
.1
31.5
37 .6
39 .3
31.5
.4
47.9
1.3
53.6
2.3
57.0
2.2
57.3
2.4
59.3
2.3
73.8
2.4
81.5
2.3
84.3
1.7
88.7
1.7
99.3
1.8 105.0
1.8 112.8
1.2
2.5
7.1
12.6
16.6
15.5
10.4
8.5
10.7
11.5
9.3
16.7
21.3
18.1
18.7
15.5
19.3
17.6
15.4
12.9
15.0
13.5
14.1
6.9
7.1
7.2
8.7
8.7
9.4
9.7
11.8
13.2
13.5
14.0
14.9
16.5
18.7
20.7
22.5
25.7
29.0
31.1
33.3
37.0
40.1
42.5
24.5
27.5
32.3
36.3
42.1
45.6
51.6
56.2
62.1
68.6
72.4
81 6
86.5
90.1
91.8
94.9
103.0
107.4
111.6
118.7
124.2
128.6
135.6
82.6
86.7
94.5
102.2
118.4
133.1
141.3
162.4
191.9
204.7
215.6
230.4
261.6
287.5
281.6
271.2
270.1
273.4
281.6
280.5
287.0
284.7
13.3
14.3
15.7
16.2
18.3
17.4
13.2
14.3
12.6
10.0
13.1
15.1
18.1
23.2
20.7
21.8
17.7
19.4
20.7
23.9
22.0
24.9
26.0
29.4
32.8
35.5
39.0
44.5
51.0
61.0
76.0
83.6
92.4
102.6
117.0
134.8
148.8
139.8
140.6
145.6
148.8
155.0
160.1
167.5
131.0
137.3
142.7
149.0
157.2
164.6
174.9
182.4
185. 7
187.4
203.6
221.3
242.3
261.5
274.1
260.4
269.0
271.8
274.1
287.6
299.4
307.7
Nonfmancial corporation:,7
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.9
4.5
5.1
5.1
4.8
4.2
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.6
3.7
4.3
94.5
99.5
106.9
116.5
130.2
142.1
150.2
168.8
192.2
201.9
217.6
240.0
266.1
289.7
294.6
281.9
284.8
294.7
294.6
307.3
318.1
324.2
95.0
100.5
106.8
113.1
126.6
142.8
153.1
166.0
186.4
193.3
200.4
215.2
246.7
288.0
285.8
285.2
281.4
279.6
285.8
288.8
295.6
302.1
10.5
12.1
14.4
16.3
18.1
19.7
22.0
26.9
31.6
35.0
43.8
48.1
54.4
56.6
60.0
55.4
57.3
59.0
60.0
63.6
63.9
66.3
123.7
132.4
145.5
156.6
178.8
199.4
211.3
244.1
287.8
304.9
326.0
352.2
401.0
450.6
457.5
438.0
434.2
444.7
457.5
465.9
475.9
484.1
1.8
2.0
2.5
2.7
3.1
4.4
5.8
6.4
7.3
6.6
4.9
4.0
4.3
5.2
6.4
5.3
5.8
6.2
6.4
6.4
6.8
7.0
» Includes time certificates of deposit.
i Includes Federal agency issues.
3
Receivables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not include amounts offset against each other on corporations'books or amounts arisingfrom subcontracting which are not directly due from or to the U.S. Government. Wherever
possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Government advances offset against inventories on corporations'
books.
* Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities and time certificates of deposit) as well as sundry
current assets.
s Includes commercial paper outstanding, the portion of long-term debt due in less than 1 year, and miscellaneous
current liabilities not elsewhere classified.
e Excludes banks, savings and loan associations, and insurance companies.
7 Excludes banks, sayings and loan associations, insurance companies, investment companies, finance companies
(personal and commercial), real estate companies, and security and commodity brokers, dealers, and exchanges.
Note.—Year-end data through 1971 are based on "Statistics of Income" (Department of the Treasury), covering virtually
all corporations in the United States. "Statistics of Income" data may not be strictly comparable from year to year because
of changes in the tax laws, basis for filing returns, and processing of data for compilation purposes. All other figures shown
are estimates based on data compiled from many different sources, including data on corporations registered with the
Securities and Exchange Commission.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
286
TABLE B-86.—State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-76
[Millions of dollars]
Corporate securities offered for cash
Year or quarter
1934....
State and
municipal
securities
offered
for cash
(principal
amounts)
Type of corporate security
Total
corporate
offerings
939
397
Common
stock
Bonds
and
notes
Preferred
stock
Industry of corporate issuer
Manufacturing!
Electric,
gas
and
water3
Transportation »
Communication
Other
372
67
133
176
1,979
19
604
1,271
186
103
1939....
1,128
2,164
87
1940....
1941....
1942....
1943
1944
1,238
956
524
435
661
2,677
2,667
1,062
1,170
3,202
108
110
34
56
163
183
167
112
124
369
2,386
2,389
917
990
2,670
992
848
539
510
1,061
1,203
1,357
472
477
1,422
324
366
48
161
609
159
96
4
21
109
1945
1946....
1947....
1948....
1949....
795
1,157
2,324
2,690
2,907
6,011
6,900
6,577
7,078
6,052
397
891
779
614
736
758
1,127
762
492
425
4,855
4,882
5,036
5,973
4,890
2,026
3,701
2,742
2,226
1,414
2,319
2,158
3,257
2,187
2,320
1,454
711
286
755
800
902
571
211
329
293
1,008
946
1950....
1951....
1952....
1953....
1954
3,532
3,189
4,401
5,558
6,969
6,362
7,741
9,534
9,516
811
1,212
1,369
1,326
1,213
631
838
564
489
816
4,920
5,691
7,601
7,083
7,488
1,200
3,122
4,039
2,254
2,268
2,649
2,455
2,675
3,029
3,713
813
494
992
595
778
399
612
760
882
720
1,300
1,058
1,068
2,138
2,037
1955
1956
1957
1958
5,977
5,446
6,958
7,449
7,681
10,240
10,939
12,884
11,558
9,748
2,185
2,301
2,516
1,334
2,027
635
636
411
571
531
7,420
8,002
9,957
9,653
7,190
2,994
3,647
4,234
3,515
2,073
2,464
2,529
3,938
3,804
3,258
893
724
824
824
967
,132
,419
,462
,424
717
2,757
2,619
2,426
1,991
2,733
I960....
1961....
1962
1963
1964
7,230
8,360
8,558
10,107
10, 544
10,154
13,165
10, 705
12,211
13,957
1,664
3,294
1,314
1,011
2,679
409
450
422
343
412
8,081
9,420
8,969
10,856
10,865
2,152
4,077
3,249
3,514
3,046
2,851
3,032
2,825
2,677
2,760
718
694
567
957
982
,050
,834
1,303
1,105
2,189
3,383
3,527
2,761
3,957
4,980
1965....
1966....
1967.....
1968
1969.....
11,148
11,089
14,288
16,374
11,460
14,782
17,385
24,014
21,261
25,997
1,473
1,901
1,927
3,885
7,640
724
580
881
636
691
12,585
14,904
21, 206
16, 740
17,666
5,414
7,056
11,069
6,958
6,346
2,934
3,666
4,935
5,293
6,715
702
1,494
1,639
1,564
1,779
945
2,003
1,975
1,775
2,172
4,787
3,167
4,396
5,671
8,985
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
17,762
24, 370
23, 070
22,953
22,824
37,451
43, 219
39, 704
31, 684
37, 737
7,037
9,502
10, 707
7,643
3,986
1,390
3,682
3,370
3,341
2,254
29,023
30,035
25, 627
20, 700
31, 497
10,647 11,009
11,625 11, 746
6,400 11,314
4,835 10, 270
10, 410 12, 835
1,253
1,166
859
811
1,004
5,291
5,815
4,835
4,867
3,928
9,252
12,867
16, 297
10, 899
9,559
1975
1959
29, 326
52, 527
7,402
3,459
41,666
18, 649
15, 893
2,636
4,463
10,884
1975: I . .
II.
Ill
IV.
6,526
7,796
8,236
6,768
15,118
15,301
9,232
12,876
1,431
2,676
1,419
1,876
662
924
635
1,238
13, 025
11,700
7,179
9,762
6,051
6,698
2,420
3,480
4,736
4,407
3,326
3,424
85
507
291
1,753
1,381
1,190
678
1,214
2,865
2,498
2,516
3,004
1976: I . .
II.
III
8,274
8,614
7,854
13, 744
13,852
10, 789
2,788
2,403
1,423
764
720
439
10,191
10, 729
8,929
4,496
3,701
2,972
4,045
3,139
3,315
1,087
605
1,193
765
1,876
377
3,351
4,529
2,933
1 Prior to 1948, also includes extractive, radiobroadcasting, airline companies, commercial, and miscellaneous company
issues.
2 Prior to 1948, also includes telephone, street railway, and bus company issues.
3 Prior to 1948, includes railroad issues only.
Note.—Covers substantially all new issues of State, rrunicipal. and corporate securities offered for cash sale in the United
States in amounts over $100,COO and with terms to maturity of more than 1 year; excludes notes issued exclusively to
commercial banks, intercorporate transactions, and issues to be sold over an extended period, such as employee-purchase
plans. Closed-end investment company issues are included beginning 1971.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission, "The Commercial and Financial Chronicle," and " T h e Bond Buyer."
287
TABLE B-87.—Common stock prices and yields, 1949-76
Common stock yields
(percent)«
Common stock prices *
New York Stock Exchange indexes
(December 31,1965=50)2
Period
Composite
Industrial
Transportation
Utility
Finance
Standard
Dow& Poor's
Jones
composite Dividendindustrial
index
price
average 3 0941-43=
ratio«
lO)*
Earningsprice
ratio '
1949
9 02
179.48
15.23
6.59
15.48
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
10.87
13 08
13.81
13.67
16.19
21.54
24.40
23 67
24 56
30.73
216.31
257.64
270.76
275.97
333.94
442.72
493.01
475.71
491.66
632.12
18.40
22.34
24.50
24.73
29.69
40 49
46.62
44.38
46.24
57.38
6 57
6.13
5.80
5 80
4.95
4 08
4 G9
4.35
3.97
3.23
13 99
11.82
9.47
10 26
8 57
7 95
7 55
7.89
6.23
5.78
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
30.01
35.37
33 49
37.51
43.76
47 39
46.15
50.77
55.37
54.67
46.18
51.97
58.00
57.44
50.26
53.51
50.58
46.96
45.41
45.43
44.19
42.80
44.45
49.82
65.85
70.49
618.04
691. 55
639.76
714.81
834.05
910.88
873.60
879.12
906.00
876.72
55.85
66.27
62.38
69.87
81.37
88.17
85.26
91.93
98.70
97.84
3.47
2.98
3 37
3.17
3.01
3 00
3.40
3.20
3.07
3.24
5.90
4.62
5 82
5.50
5.32
5.59
6.63
5.73
5.67
6.08
45.72
54.22
60.29
57.42
43.84
45.73
54 46
48.03
57.92
65.73
63.08
48.08
50.52
60 44
32.14
44.35
50.17
37.74
31.89
31.10
39.57
37.24
39.53
38.48
37.69
29.79
31.50
36.97
60.00
70.38
78.35
70.12
49.67
47.14
52.94
753.20
884.76
950.71
923.88
759.37
802.49
974.92
83.22
98.29
109.20
107.43
82.85
86.16
102.01
3.83
3.14
2.84
3.06
4.47
4.31
3.77
6.45
5.41
5.50
7.12
11.59
9.04
38 56
42.48
44.35
44 91
47 76
49.22
41 29
46.00
48.63
49.74
53 22
54.61
28.12
30.21
31.62
31.70
32.28
32.38
29.55
31.31
31.04
30.01
31.02
32.79
44.85
47.59
47.83
47.35
50.06
52.20
659.09
724.89
765.06
790.93
836. 56
845.70
72.56
80.10
83.78
84.72
90.10
92.40
5.07
4.61
4.42
4.34
4.08
4.02
10.10
49 54
45 71
44.97
46.87
47 64
46.78
54 96
50 71
50.05
52.26
52.91
51.89
32.90
30 08
29.46
30.79
32.09
31.61
32.98
31 02
30.65
31.87
32.99
32.75
52.51
46 55
43.38
44.36
45.10
43.86
856.28
815. 51
818.28
831.26
845. 51
840.80
92.49
85 71
84.67
88.57
90.07
88.70
4.02
4.36
4.39
4.22
4.07
4.14
9.13
51 31
53.73
54.01
54 28
53 87
54.23
57 00
59.79
60.30
60 62
60 22
60.70
35.78
38.53
39.17
38.66
39.71
40.41
35.23
36.12
35.43
35.69
35.40
35.16
48.83
52.06
52.61
52.71
50.99
51.82
929.34
971. 70
988. 55
992. 51
988.82
985.59
96.86
100.64
101.08
101.93
101.16
101.77
3.80
3.67
3.65
3.66
3.76
3.75
8.29
55 68
55.18
56.29
54 43
54 17
56.34
62 11
61.14
62.35
60 07
59 45
61.54
42.12
40.63
40.36
38.37
39.28
41.77
36.49
37.56
38.77
38.33
38 85
40.61
54.06
54.22
54.52
52.74
53.25
57.45
993.20
981.63
994.37
951.95
944. 58
976.86
104.20
103.29
105.45
101.89
101.19
104. 66
3.64
3.74
3.71
3.85
4.04
3.93
9.02
1970 . .
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
.
1975- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1976" Jan
Feb
Mar. .
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
.
8.30
8.64
8.76
* Averages of daily closing prices, except New York Stock Exchange data through May 1964 are averages of weekly closing
prices.
2
Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
3 Includes 30 stocks.
«Includes 500 stocks.
« Standard and Poor's series, based on 500 stocks in the composite index.
e Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by aggregate market value based on Wednesday closing prices. Monthly data are averages of weekly figures; annual data are averages of monthly figures.
7
Ratio of quarterly earnings (seasonally adjusted annual rate) to price index for last day of quarter. Annual ratios are
averages of quarterly ratios.
Note.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Co., Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
288
TABLE B-88.—Business formation and business failures,
1929-76
Business failures *
Index
of net
business
formation
(1967=100)
Year or month
1929
19333
1939 3
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
.
.
.
rations
(numhnr\
Der>
ness
failure
.
.
132,916
112,897
96,346
85,640
93,092
83,778
92,946
102, 706
117,411
139,915
141,163
137,112
150,781
193,067
182,713
181,535
182,057
186,404
197, 724
203,897
200,010
206,569
233,635
274,267
264,209
287, 577
316,601
329,358
319,149
326, 345
Liability size
class
Total
103.9
100.3
69.6
63.0
54.4
44.6
16.4
93.1
93.3
98.2
94.4
91.3
99.1
95.2
90.4
89.5
96.8
92.4
88.3
90.7
93.3
97.2
98.6
98.2
100.0
109.8
116.2
108.0
111.0
117.9
117.9
112.4
108.9
Amount of current
liabilities (millions
of dollars)
Number of failures
. ...
..
112.6
87.8
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960. .
1961...
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
.
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
New
business
6.5
4.2
5.2
$100, 000
and
over
248.3
259.5
283.3
394.2
462.6
449.4
562.7
615.3
728.3
692.8
938.6
1,090.1
1,213.6
1,352.6
1,329.2
1,321.7
1,385.7
1,265.2
941.0
1,142.1
1,887.8
1,916.9
2,000.2
2,298.6
3,053.1
4, 380.2
261.5
215.5
132.9
119.9
100.7
80.3
30.2
14.5
11.4
15.7
63.7
93.9
161.4
151.2
131.6
131.9
167.5
211.4
206.4
239.8
267.1
297.6
278.9
327.2
370.1
346.5
321.0
313.6
321.7
321.5
297.9
241.1
231.3
269.3
271.3
258.8
235.6
256.9
298.6
221.8
242.0
49.7
46.8
35.4
20.5
15.1
17.1
18.8
51.6
140.9
140.7
146.7
97.1
128.0
151.4
226.6
251.2
243.0
322.9
348.2
430.7
413.9
611.4
720.0
867.1
1,031.6
1,015.6
1,000.0
1,064.1
967.3
699.9
910.8
1,618.4
1,645.6
1,741.5
2,063.0
2,796.3
4,081.6
391.1
384.8
343.3
372.1
357.8
175.9
233
242.0
351
222.4
283
205.5
294
342 4 1,295.4
252.9
280
136.9
111
257.1
356
211.8
295
247.7
347
206.4
301
233.3
289
373.6
111
305.6
231
264.0
300
260
250.3
183.6
249
25.5
25.0
30.2
29.9
29.2
22.5
21.7
23.1
22.7
25.4
22.4
20.9
22.0
23.9
26.0
23.1
23.3
20.3
19.1
21.5
18.4
20.4
365.7
359.8
313.2
342.2
328.6
153.4
220.4
199.3
182.8
1,270.0
230.4
115.9
235.1
187.8
221.6
183.3
210.0
353.3
286.5
242.4
231.9
163.2
744
979
227
219
22,165
18, 880
14,541
13,400
11,685
9,282
3,155
1,176
1,129
3,474
5,250
9,246
9,162
8,058
7,611
8,862
11,086
10,969
12,686
13, 739
14,964
14,053
15,445
17,075
15, 782
14,374
13, 501
13,514
13,061
12,364
9,636
9,154
10,748
10,326
9,566
9,345
9,915
11, 432
1,003
3,103
4,853
8,708
8,746
7f 626
7,081
8,075
10,226
10,113
11,615
12, 547
13,499
12,707
13,650
15,006
13,772
12,192
11,346
11,340
10,833
10,144
7,829
7,192
8,019
7,611
7,040
6,627
6,733
7,504
1,071
1,192
1,465
1,346
1,795
2,069
2,010
2,182
2,155
2,174
2,228
2,220
1,807
1,962
2,729
2,715
2,526
2,718
3,182
3,928
1,080
677
627
774
756
728
403
336
371
446
317
14.3
20.4
34.4
34.3
30.7
28.7
33.2
42.0
41.6
48.0
51.7
55.9
51.8
57.0
64.4
60.8
56.3
53.2
53.3
51.6
49.0
38.6
37.3
43.8
41.7
38.3
36.4
38.4
42.6
759
Total
$100,000
Under $100,000
and
$100,000 over
22,909
19,859
14,768
13,619
11,848
9,405
3,221
1,222
809
Liability size
class
163
123
66
46
50
126
371
397
538
416
432
530
787
860
856
Under
483.3
457.5
182.5
166.7
136.1
100.8
45.3
31.7
30.2
67.3
204.6
234.6
308.1
Seasonally adjusted
1975: Jan
Feb
Mr
a
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept - .
Oct
Nov
Dec
1976: Jan
Feb . . .
Mar
_
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct .
Nov
102.9
101.7
103.0
103.4
104.8
110.7
113.7
112.6
113.1
112.0
112.5
116.0
115.4
114.5
116.3
115.7
114.9
118.6
117.8
117 8
118.3
120.0
24, 406
24,298
24,922
26, 506
26,634
26, 231
28,571
28, 632
29,000
29,469
28, 795
29, 704
29, 604
28,973
30,910
29, 876
28,637
31, 600
30,114
32,746
32, 368
32,887
33,574
46.8
44.9
46.3
49.1
43.4
36.5
41.9
41.4
42.2
44.9
37.0
35.4
36.9
38.2
36.3
35.4
35.0
32.7
31.2
35.7
34.9
34.7
963
1,145
1,202
1,045
805
904
891
853
987
801
756
886
867
965
888
835
775
689
798
714
745
572
553
608
559
645
521
484
530
572
618
587
546
498
458
498
454
496
* Commercial and industrial failures only. Excludes failures of banks and railroads and, beginning 1933, of real estate,
insurance, holding, and financial companies, steamship lines, travel agencies, etc.
3
Failure rate per 10,000 listed enterprises.
»Series revised; not strictly comparable with earlier data.
«Excluding W. T. Grant, current liabilities were $264.9 billion.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
289
AGRICULTURE
TABLE B-89.—Income of farm people and farmers, 1929-76
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income received from farming
Personal income
received by total
farm population
Year or
quarter
Net to farm
operators
Realized gross
ProducCash tion ex- Exclud- IncludFrom
From
From
receipts penses ing net ing net
nonall
inven- invenfarm
Total * from
farm
sources sources1 sources 2
tory
tory
marketchange change4
ings
Billions of dollars
1929
1933
13.9
7.1
Net income per
farm including
net inventory
change
Current
dollars
1967
dollars *
Dollars
11.3
5.3
7.7
4.4
6.3
2.7
6.2
2.6
945
379
1,969
1,115
1939
7.4
4.8
2.6
10.6
7.9
6.3
4.3
4.4
685
1,851
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
7.6
10.1
14.1
16.5
16.6
17.2
20.0
21.1
23.8
19.5
4.8
6.8
10.1
12.1
12.2
12.8
15.5
15.8
18.0
13.3
2.8
3.3
3.9
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.6
5.3
5.8
6.2
11.1
13.9
18.8
23.4
24 4
25.8
29.5
34.1
34.7
31.6
8.4
11.1
15.6
19.6
20.5
21.7
24.8
29.6
30.2
27.8
6.9
7.8
10.0
11.6
12.3
13.1
14.5
17.0
18.8
18.0
4.2
6.1
8.8
11.8
12.1
12.8
15.0
17.1
15.9
13.6
45
6.5
9.9
11.7
11 7
12 3
15.1
15.4
17.7
12.8
706
1,031
1,588
1,927
1 950
2,063
2,543
2,615
3,044
2,233
1 858
2,578
3,452
3,706
3 611
3 619
4 037
3,534
3,903
2,977
20.3
22.7
22.0
19.7
18.3
17.5
17.6
17.5
19 2
17.5
14.1
16.1
15.3
13.3
12.4
11.3
11 1
10.8
12 5
10.4
6.3
6.5
6.7
6.4
5.9
6.2
66
6.6
6.7
7.1
32.3
37.1
36.8
35.1
33.7
33.3
34 4
34.2
38 1
37.9
28.5
32.9
32.5
31.0
29.8
29.5
30 4
29.7
33 5
33.6
19.5
22.3
22.8
21.5
21.8
22.2
22.7
23.7
25.8
27.2
12.8
14.8
14.0
13.6
11.9
11.1
11 7
10.5
12 3
10.7
13.6
15.9
15.0
13.0
12.4
11.3
11 3
11.1
13 2
10.7
2,417
2,936
2,878
2,604
2,579
2,429
2,493
2,536
3,111
2,615
3,180
3,537
3,426
3,100
3,070
2,892
2 933
2,882
3 496
2,938
18.4
19.0
19.7
20.0
19.8
22.6
23.8
22.9
24.1
26.9
11.1
11.4
11 4
11.0
10.0
12 0
12.6
11.1
11.3
12.9
7.2
7.6
83
9.0
9.7
10.6
11.2
11.7
12.8
13.9
38.5
40.2
41 7
42.7
43.1
45 5
50.6
49.9
51.7
56.3
34.2
35.2
36 5
37.5
37.3
39.4
43.4
42.8
44.2
48.2
27.4
28.6
30.3
31.6
31.8
33.7
36.5
38.2
39.5
42.1
11.1
11.6
11 4
11.1
11.3
11.9
14.0
11.7
12.2
14.2
11.5
12.0
12 1
11.8
10.5
12.9
14.0
12.3
12.3
14.3
2,907
3,126
3,267
3,295
3,035
3,843
4,286
3,903
4,013
4,766
3,230
3,473
3 590
3,582
3,263
4,045
4,373
3,903
3,859
4,372
27.4
28.7
34.4
48.6
45.1
45.5
44.0
13.0
13.4
16.8
29.0
23.5
22.8
20.0
14.4
15.3
17.6
19.5
21.5
22.7
24.0
58.6
60.6
70.1
95.5
100.2
98.2
50.5
52.9
61.2
87.1
92.6
89.6
44.4
47.4
52.3
65.6
72.4
75.5
14.1
13.2
17.8
29.9
27.8
22.7
14.2
14.6
18.7
33.3
26.5
25.6
4,790
5,030
6,504
11,727
9,371
9,100
4,202
4,263
5,288
8,817
6,206
5,482
106.8
97.5
97 0
99.5
99.4
90.0
89.3
91.7
72.6
71.5
72.7
72.8
34.2
26.0
24.3
26.7
32.7
25.2
24.3
23.8
11,550
8,900
8,590
8,410
8,080
5,930
5,580
5,320
88.4
99.6
105.2
99 6
80.0
91.1
96.5
90.8
73.4
76.1
76.8
75.7
15.0
23.5
28.4
23.9
18.5
24.8
30.0
29.1
6,590
8,830
10,680
10,360
4,070
5,380
6,320
6,060
101.5
111 1
103.3
92.4
101 8
93.8
79.0
82.5
81.5
22.5
28.6
21.8
22.5
25.6
20.8
8,100
9,210
7,490
4,710
5,300
4,230
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959.
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
.
..
. . .
.
...
.
.
1970
1971
1972.
1973
1974
1975
1976*
.
. ..
1974: 1 . .
II...
Ill
IV. .
1975: 1
II..
Ill
IV
.
....
1976: 1
II
III
1
Net income to farm operators including net inventory change, less net income of nonresident operators, plus wages and
salaries and other labor income of farm resident workers, less contributions of farm resident operators and workers to
social insurance.
2 Consists of income received by farm residents from nonfarm sources, such as wages and salaries from nonfarm employment, nonfarm business and professional income, rents from nonfarm real estate, dividends, interest, royalties,
unemployment compensation, and social security payments.
3
Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney and other farm income furnished by farms
(excluding net inventory change).
* Includes net value of physical change in inventory of crops and livestock valued at average prices for the year.
1
Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid ty farmers for family living items on a 1967 base.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
290
TABLE B-90.— Farm production indexes, 1929-76
[1967=100]
Crop:
Year
1929....
Farm
output i
Total*
54
62
48
7
1
62
36
Feed
grains
Hay
and
forage
Livestock and products 2
Dairy Poultry
prod- and
ucts eggs
Food Vege- Fruits
and
grains tables nuts
Cotton
70
204
78
1
1
54
52
76
32
65
72
178
70
9
57
58
80
32
52
73
ToOil
bacco crops Total»
Meat
animals
1933....
51
56
44
1939....
58
64
51
68
48
72
91
162
97
25
5
9
59
82
35
1940...
1941...
1942...
1943_..
1944...
60
63
70
69
71
67
68
76
72
75
52
56
64
58
62
52
60
63
54
67
74
75
79
86
82
88
93
92
80
92
173
148
176
157
168
74
64
72
71
99
27
29
40
41
36
6
1
64
7
1
77
74
60
63
72
81
73
85
89
92
91
93
36
39
45
52
52
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
70
7
2
6
9
7
6
74
73
77
73
84
79
60
65
50
72
63
7
6
75
82
80
7
9
8
1
77
74
74
73
70
72
85
81
70
84
93
81
86
83
84
100
95
87
92
124
119
163
205
220
101
118
107
101
100
35
34
39
47
45
73
71
70
68
72
70
68
67
66
69
95
94
93
90
93
54
50
50
49
54
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
74
76
79
80
80
77
78
82
81
80
64
59
63
61
64
78
81
79
81
81
65
64
83
76
67
85
80
80
84
82
93
94
91
93
93
137
208
208
208
226
103
119
114
105
114
46
47
46
47
49
75
78
79
80
82
74
79
79
78
81
93
92
92
97
98
57
59
60
61
64
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
83
83
81
87
89
83
82
81
89
89
68
68
74
80
84
86
82
89
89
85
63
66
62
91
73
85
91
88
90
89
93
97
89
96
99
188
202
183
150
157
112
111
85
88
91
53
60
58
69
64
84
85
83
85
89
86
83
80
82
88
99
101
101
101
100
63
69
70
74
76
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
91
92
92
96
95
93
92
92
96
93
87
78
79
86
75
90
90
93
93
94
87
80
74
77
86
90
96
94
94
90
93
97
97
95
95
170
195
204
211
232
99
105
118
119
113
68
77
78
81
81
88
91
92
95
98
85
89
90
95
98
101
104
105
104
105
76
82
82
84
87
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
98
95
100
102
102
99
95
100
103
104
88
89
100
95
99
98
97
100
99
100
88
88
100
106
98
96
97
100
104
101
100
98
100
98
116
205
130
100
148
137
94
96
100
87
91
95
97
100
114
116
95
97
100
100
101
92
96
100
101
102
104
101
100
99
98
90
96
100
98
100
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
101
111
110
112
108
101
112
113
120
110
89
116
112
115
93
99
105
104
109
104
91
107
102
112
120
101
100
101
102
103
109
116
104
130
124
139
145
187
175
158
97
86
88
88
101
117
121
131
155
127
105
108
108
105
106
108
112
110
108
110
100
101
102
98
98
106
107
109
106
106
1975 ...
1976 p..
111
111
122
118
113
117
108
100
141
138
100
100
131
139
112
133
111
105
151
128
100
103
101
102
98
101
102
109
1
Farm output measures the annual volume of net farm production available for eventual human use through sales from
farms or consumption in farm households.
3
Gross production.
* Includes certain items not shown separately.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
291
TABLE B-91.—Farm population, employment, and productivity, 1929-76
Farm population
(April l ) i
Farm employment
(thousands)»
Farm output
Per hour of farm work
Year
Number
(thousands)
As percent of
total
population »
Total
Hired
Family
workers workers
Per
unit of
total
input
Total
Crops
Livestock
and
products
Crop
production
per
acre 4
Index, 1967=100
1929..
30, 580
25.1
12,763
9,360
3,403
54
16
1933..
32, 393
25.8
12,739
9,874
2,865
55
1939..
30, 840
23.5
11,338
8,611
2,727
1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
30, 547
30,118
28,914
26,186
24, 815
23.1
22.6
21.4
19.2
17.9
10,979
10,669
10, 504
10, 446
10, 219
8,300
8,017
7,949
8,010
7,988
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
24,420
25, 403
25, 829
24, 383
24,194
17.5
18.0
17.9
16.6
16.2
10,000
10, 295
10,382
10,363
9,964
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
23,048
21, 890
21,748
19, 874
19,019
15.2
14.2
13.9
12.5
11.7
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
19, 078
18,712
17,656
17,128
16, 592
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1
26
16
16
16
25
50
60
19
20
27
60
2,679
2,652
2,555
2,436
2,231
62
64
69
68
69
20
22
24
24
24
21
23
25
24
25
27
28
30
31
31
62
63
70
64
68
7,881
8,106
8,115
8,026
7,712
2,119
2,189
2,267
2,337
2,252
69
72
70
75
72
26
28
28
31
32
27
29
29
33
33
31
32
33
34
35
67
71
67
75
70
9,926
9,546
9,149
8,864
8,651
7,597
7,310
7,005
6,775
6,570
2,329
2,236
2,144
2,089
2,081
73
73
75
76
77
34
35
38
40
42
36
35
39
40
42
37
39
40
42
43
69
70
73
72
71
11.5
11.1
10.3
9.8
9.4
8,381
7,852
7,600
7,503
7,342
6,345
5,900
5,660
5,521
5,390
2,036
1,952
1,940
1,982
1,952
80
81
82
89
89
45
48
51
57
60
45
48
53
61
61
46
49
50
54
59
74
76
77
86
85
15,635
14,803
14,313
13,367
12,954
8.7
8.1
7.7
7.1
6.8
7,057
6,919
6,700
6,518
6,110
5,172
5,029
4,873
4,738
4,506
1,885
1,890
1,827
1,780
1,604
92
93
94
98
97
65
68
71
77
81
66
69
72
77
79
62
66
71
77
83
89
92
95
97
95
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
12,363
11,595
10, 875
10,454
10, 307
6.4
5.9
5.5
5.2
5.1
5,610
5,214
4,903
4,749
4,596
4,128
3,854
3,650
3,535
3,419
1,482
1,360
1,253
1,213
1,176
102
97
100
101
102
89
92
100
106
110
90
94
100
106
108
86
93
100
105
112
100
97
100
105
106
1970..
1971..
1972.
1973.
1974.
9,712
9,425
9,610
9,472
9,264
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.4
4,523
4,436
4,373
4,337
4,389
3,348
3,275
3,228
3,169
3,075
1,175
1,161
1,146
1,168
1,314
101
110
109
110
107
112
126
129
133
132
110
120
124
128
118
121
130
138
144
156
104
112
115
115
103
1975 ...
1976 P..
8,864
8,300
4.2
3.9
4,357
4,376
3,034
2,997
1,324
1,379
113
110
141
140
131
130
160
161
114
109
56
Farm population as defined by Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce, i.e., civilian population
Far
ving on
living o farms, regardless of occupation.
'Total population of United States as of July 1 including Armed Forces overseas.
ncludes
* Includes persons doing farmwork on all farms These data published by the D
farms.
data,
Department of Agriculture, Statistical
Reporting Service, differ from those on agricultural employment by the Department of Labor (see Table B-29) because of
differences in the method of approach, in concepts of employment, and in time of month for which the data are collected.
See monthly report on "Farm Labor."
* Computed from variable weights for individual crops produced each year.
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Cc nsus).
292
TABLE B-92.—Indexes
of prices received and prices paid by farmers and selected farm
resource prices, 1929—76
[1967=100, except as notedj
Prices received by farmers
Year or month
All
farm
Crops
products
1929
1933
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
. .
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1975* Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
. .
June 15"
July 15
Augl5
Sept 15
Octl5
Nov 15
Dec 15
1
1976 Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
June 15
July 15
Augl5
Sept 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
59
28
38
40
49
64
77
79
83
94
110
115
100
103
121
115
102
98
93
92
94
100
96
95
96
98
97
95
98
106
100
102
107
110
113
125
19
7
192
186
186
182
176
172
178
183
186
191
194
199
195
184
186
186
187
186
189
191
196
195
187
187
178
173
179
60
31
36
40
48
64
83
88
90
102
117
113
100
103
118
119
1C7
108
103
104
100
99
98
99
101
103
107
106
103
106
100
100
97
100
108
114
15
7
224
201
198
216
204
195
201
198
198
203
212
210
203
189
188
191
193
195
193
198
211
215
201
204
195
187
191
Prices paid by farmers
All
items,
Live- nterest, Family
taxes,
living
stock
and
items
and
roducts wage
rates
58
25
39
40
50
62
72
71
77
88
105
115
99
102
122
111
97
90
85
82
89
99
93
92
91
93
89
86
94
106
100
104
117
118
118
136
183
165
172
177
153
151
152
158
171
176
181
180
189
189
181
184
183
183
178
186
185
184
179
175
172
165
162
169
47
32
36
36
39
44
50
53
56
61
70
76
73
75
82
84
81
81
81
81
84
86
87
88
88
90
91
92
94
99
100
103
108
112
120
125
14
4
166
181
194
175
174
174
179
180
183
183
184
186
184
184
184
190
191
192
193
193
195
196
195
195
194
193
195
48
34
37
38
40
46
52
54
57
63
74
78
75
76
83
84
84
84
84
85
88
89
89
90
90
91
92
93
95
98
100
104
109
114
118
123
133
151
166
176
161
162
163
163
164
166
168
169
169
170
171
171
172
172
173
174
174
175
17
7
177
178
179
180
181
Production
items
51
34
42
43
45
52
57
60
61
67
78
87
83
86
95
95
89
89
87
87
90
92
93
92
93
94
95
94
96
100
100
100
104
108
113
121
146
166
182
196
176
173
173
181
183
186
184
186
189
186
184
186
191
193
194
197
196
199
199
198
197
195
194
196
Selected resource prices
Tractors
and
selfpropelled
machinery
92
96
100
104
111
116
122
128
137
161
195
Fertilizer
103
102
100
94
87
88
91
94
102
167
217
185
Average Average
hourly
farm
wage
real
rate,
estate
all
value
hired
per
farm
acre2
workers1
$0 73
.'68
.69
.77
81
.82
.81
82
.86
.88
92
.95
.97
.99
1.01
1 05
1.08
1.14
1 23
1.33
1.44
1.55
1.64
1.73
1.84
2.00
2.25
2.43
27
16
19
19
19
21
23
26
29
32
36
39
41
40
46
51
52
51
53
55
58
61
66
68
69
73
77
82
86
93
100
107
113
117
122
132
150
187
214
244
2.47
214
185
231
2.42
199
2.29
204
200
2.63
230
209
2.75
244
211
182
2.66
220
2.53
224
177
2.80
269
1 Without room or board; on or about the first of January, April, July, and October.
2 Average for 48 States. Annual data are for March 1 of each year through 1975 and for February 1 for 1976. Monthly
data are for first of month.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
O - 77 - 20
224-250
293
TABLI. B-93.—Selected
measures offarm resources and inputs,
1929-76
Index numbers of inputs (1967=100)
Crops
harvested
(millions
of
acres) i
Year
Total
hours
of
farm
work
(billions)
Total
Farm
labor
Farm
real
estate
MeFeed,
chaniseed,
Agrical
and
Taxes Miscelcultural livepower chemiand
laneous
and
cals 2 stock interest
purmachases 3
chinery
365
23.2
99
329
103
39
10
30
71
67
340
22.6
93
320
97
32
6
27
73
64
1939
331
20.7
97
294
102
40
12
40
70
76
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
341
344
348
357
362
20.5
20.0
20.6
20.3
20.2
98
98
101
103
104
292
288
295
291
289
104
102
100
99
98
42
44
52
55
58
13
14
15
17
20
41
45
70
71
71
75
77
78
75
78
81
354
352
355
356
360
18.8
18.1
17.2
16.8
16.2
101
100
100
101
103
271
260
246
239
231
99
103
103
104
105
59
58
64
73
80
20
21
24
26
28
53
52
54
55
60
78
77
80
79
80
81
86
90
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
345
344
349
348
346
15.1
15.2
14.5
14.0
13.3
102
105
105
104
103
217
217
207
200
192
105
106
105
105
105
85
91
95
97
97
30
33
36
37
38
62
66
68
67
70
80
80
82
84
83
86
92
91
91
88
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
340
324
324
324
324
12.8
12.0
11.1
10.5
10.3
103
102
99
99
100
185
174
162
155
151
105
103
102
101
102
98
99
98
98
99
40
41
41
44
50
71
74
73
78
82
85
85
84
85
90
92
88
92
97
101
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
324
302
295
298
298
9.8
9.4
9.0
8.7
8.2
99
98
98
98
98
145
139
133
128
122
100
100
101
100
101
98
95
95
94
94
50
54
59
66
72
82
86
88
89
91
91
92
93
95
97
103
103
106
107
111
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
298
294
306
300
290
7.3
6.9
6.7
6.4
6.2
96
98
100
101
100
109
103
100
97
93
100
100
100
99
98
95
97
100
101
101
77
86
100
106
110
92
97
100
101
103
97
99
100
102
102
107
103
100
106
105
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
293
305
293
321
330
6.0
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.5
100
101
101
101
101
90
89
85
85
83
97
96
94
94
94
100
100
99
103
102
110
119
125
130
136
108
108
109
106
105
102
100
102
100
97
108
107
114
110
101
1975
1976 v
336
336
5.3
5.3
99
101
81
81
94
94
104
103
126
136
101
104
95
95
92
96
1929
1933
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
.
..
..
.
* Acreage harvested (excluding duplication) plus acreages in fruits, tree nuts,and farm gardens.
2 Fertilizer, lime, and pesticides.
3 Feed, seed, and livestock purchases from nonfarm sources.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
294
47
51
51
77
79
79
TABLE B-94.—Comparative balance sheet of the farming sector, 1929-77
(Billions of dollars]
Assets
Claims
Other physical assets
Beginning of
year
Financial assets
MaHouseReal LiveDehold
Total estate stock J chinery
equip- posits
and Crops2 ment
and
motor
and
curvehifurnish- rency
cles
ings
ProReal
1 nvest- Total estate Other prietors'
U.S.
ment
debt debt equisavings in coties
bonds operatives
1929
48.0
6.6
3.2
9.8
1933
30.8
3.0
2.5
8.5
34.1
5.1
3.2
52.9
55.0
62.9
73.7
84.6
33.6
34.4
37.5
41.6
48.2
5.1
5.3
7.1
9.6
9.7
3.1
3.3
4.0
4.9
5.4
2.7
3.0
3.8
5.1
6.1
4.2
4.2
4.9
5.0
5.3
3.2
3.5
4.2
5.4
6.6
0.2
.4
.5
1.1
2.2
0.8
.9
.9
1.0
1.1
52.9
55.0
62.9
73.7
84.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.0
5.4
3.4
3.9
4.1
4.0
3.5
42 9
44 6
52.4
63 7
75.7
1945.
1946.
1947
1948
1949.
94.2
103.5
116.4
127.9
134.9
53.9
61.0
68.5
73.7
76.6
9.0
9.7
11.9
13.3
14.4
6.5
5.4
5.3
7.4
10.1
6.7
6.3
7.1
9.0
8.6
5.6
6.1
7.7
8.5
9.1
7.9
9.4
10.2
9.9
9.6
3.4
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.6
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.9
94.2
103.5
116.4
127.9
134.9
4.9
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
3.4
3.2
3.6
4.2
6.1
85 9
95.5
107.9
118 6
123.5
1950
1951.
1952....
1953
1954.
132.5
151.5
167.0
164.3
161.2
75.3
86.6
95.1
96.5
95.0
12.9
17.1
19.5
14.8
11.7
12.2
14.1
16.7
17.4
18.4
7.6
7.9
8.8
9.0
9.2
8.6
9.7
10.3
9.9
9.9
9.1
9.1
9.4
9.4
9.4
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.7
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
132.5
151.5
167.0
164.3
161.2
5.6
6.1
6.7
7.2
7.7
6.8
7.0
8.0
8.9
9.2
120.1
138.4
152.3
148.2
144.3
1955
1956.
1957_
1958
1959.
165.1
169.6
177.9
185.8
202.1
98.2
102.9
110.4
115.9
124.4
11.2
10.6
11.0
13.9
17.7
18.6
19.3
20.2
20.2
21.8
9.6
8.4
8.3
7.6
9.3
10.0
10.5
10.0
9.9
9.8
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.5
10.0
5 2
5.1
5.1
5.2
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.7
3.9
165.1
169.6
177.9
185.8
202.1
8.2
9.0
9.8
10.4
11.1
9.4
9.8
9.5
10.0
12.5
147.5
150.8
158.6
165.4
178.5
1960
1961.
1962.
1963
1964
204.0
204.8
213.3
222.0
229.8
130.6
132.2
138.4
144.3
152.6
15.3
15.6
16.4
17.3
15.9
22.7
22.2
22.5
23.5
23.9
7.7
8.0
8.8
9.3
9.8
9.6
8.9
9.1
9.0
8.8
9.2
8.7
8.8
9.2
9.2
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.4
204.0
204.8
213.3
222.0
229.8
12.0
12.8
13.8
15.1
16.8
12.8
13.4
14.7
16.3
17.6
179 2
178.6
184.8
190.6
195.4
1965
1966. .
1967
1968
1969
238.0
254.7
267.6
281.0
295.3
161.5
172.8
182.3
192.5
201.4
14.5
17.6
19.0
18.8
20.2
24.8
26.0
27.4
29.8
31.3
9.2
9.7
10.0
9.6
10.6
8.6
8.6
8.5
9.1
9.7
9.6
10.0
10.3
10.9
11.5
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.8
5.6
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.8
238.0
254.7
267.6
281.0
295.3
18.9
21.2
23.1
25.1
27.4
17.9
19.5
21.0
22.3
23.1
201.2
214.0
223.5
233.6
244.8
1970.
1971
1972.
1973.
1974
306.2
317.7
343.3
387.8
476.3
206.9
215.0
231.5
260.6
325.3
23.5
23.7
27.3
34.1
42.4
32.3
34.4
36.6
39.3
44.3
10.9
10.7
11.8
14.5
22.1
9.8
10.3
11.2
12.7
13.6
11.9
12.4
13.2
14.0
14.9
3.7
3.6
3.7
4.0
4.2
7.2
7.6
8.0
8.6
9.5
306.2
317.7
343.3
387.8
476.3
29.2
30.3
32.2
35.8
41.3
23.8
24.1
26.9
29.6
32.8
253.2
?63. 3
284.2
322.4
402.2
1975
1976
520.6 371.1
585.4 422.3
24.6
29.5
56.5
65.9
23.3
19.8
15.3
16.2
15.0
15.6
4.3
4.4
10.5 520.6
11.7 585.4
46.3
50.9
35.5
39.7
438.8
494.8
1977*
634.0 460.3
634.0
56.7
44.9
532.4
1939.
1940
1941.
1942.. .
1943
1944.
....
6.8
140.3
33.4
1 Beginning with 1961, horses and mules are excluded.
2 Includes all crops held on farms and crops held off farms by farmers as security for Commodity Credit Corporation
loans. The latter on January 1,1977 totaled approximately $0.5 billion.
Note.—Beginning 1960, data include Alaska and Hawaii.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
295
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
TABLE B-95.—U. S. international transactions, 1946-76
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Merchandise12
Year
or
quarter
Exports
Direct
Net
bal- expend- Sales
ance itures
Imports
1946.
1947..
1948..
1949.
11,764
16,097
13, 265
12,213
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954.,
10,203
14, 243
13,449
12,412
12, 929
-9,081
-11,176
-10,838
-10,975
-10,353
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
14,424
17, 556
19, 562
16, 414
16,458
I960..
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964..
Military transactions
Net
bal-
-493
-455
-799
-621
1,122
3,067
2,611
1,437
2,576
-576
-1,270
-2,054
-2,615
-2,642
-11,527
-12,8C3
-13, 291
-12,952
-15,310
2,897
4,753
6,271
3,462
1,148
19,650
20,108
20, 781
22,272
25, 501
-14,758
-14,537
-16,260
-17,048
-18,700
4,892
5,571
4,521
5,224
6,801
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
26,461
29,310
30,6f.6
33, 626
36,414
-21,510
-25,493
-26, 866
-32,991
-35,807
4,951
3,817
3,800
635
607
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
8 42,4fa9
43, 319
49, 381
71,410
98,310
8-39,866
- 4 5 , 579
-55,797
-70,499
-103,679
8 2,603
-2,260
-6, 416
911
-5,369
1975... 107,088 -98,058
U.S.
Gov-
Net
travel
and
transportation receipts
BalOther ance
on
serv- goods
ices,
and
nets
services i «
Remittances,
pensions,
and
other
unilateral
transfers^
Balance
on
current
account
554
807
975
989
6
50
85
73
733
946
374
230
-576
-1,270
-2,054
-2, 423
-2,460
1,146
1,317
1,267
1,283
1,594
78
151
140
166
213
-120
298
83
-238
-269
242
254
309
307
305
1,892
3,817
2,356
532
1,959
-4,017 -2,125
-3,515
302
- 2 , 531 -175
-2,481 -1,949
-2,280 -321
-2,901
-2, 949
-3, 216
-3,435
-3,107
-2,701
- 2 , 788
-2, 841
-3,135
-2,805
1,775
2,054
2,174
2,008
2,147
180
40
4
168
68
-297
-361
-189
-633
-821
299
447
482
486
573
2,153
4,145
5,901
2,35b
310
-2,498 -345
-2,423 1,722
-2,345 3,556
-2,361
-2,448 -2,138
-3,087
-2, 998
-3,105
-2,961
-2,880
-2,753
- 2 , 596
-2,448
- 2 , 304
-2,133
2,270
2,832
3,177
3,227
3,926
17 -964
579
105 -978
594
134 -1,152
809
98 -1,309
960
-1,146 1,041
4,040
5,529
5,042
5,897
8,499
-2,308
-2,524
-2,638
-2,754
-2,781
1,387
1,365
1,612
1,630
1,833
7,105
4,514
4,340
1,578
977
-2,854 4,251
-2,932 1,582
-3,125 1,215
-2,951 -1,374
-2,994 -2,017
-2, 952
-2,122 4,143
-3, 764
- 2 , 935 3,543
-4,378 1,152 -3,226 3,865
-4,535 1,392 -3,143 3,941
-4, 856 1,528 -3, 328 3,471
-4,855
-4,819
- 4 , 784
-4,629
-5,035
1,501
1,926
1,163
2,342
2,952
9,030 -4,780
1974:
IV...
Privates
ment
-493
-455
-799
-621
-5,067 6,697
-5,973 10,124
- 7 , 557 5,708
- 6 , 874 5,339
Net investment income
22,460
24, 212
25,036
26,602
-22,605 -145 -1,153
-25, 700 -1,488 -1,298
-27,374 -2,338 -1,265
-28,000 -1,398 -1,319
27, 018
25,851
26, 562
27,657
-25, 570
-22, 568
-24,483
-25,437
26
55
41
63
156
-1,280
-1,331
-1,750
-1,548
-1,763
-3,355
-2,893
-3, 621
-2,287
-2,083
3,631 -112 -2,023
5,659 -956 -2,315
6,208
-3,028
8,188 U -3,086
13,461 -3,010 -3,107
-883 9,430 -3,234 -2,503
-3,423
310 7,807 -2,922
145 11,617 -2,625
175 6,518 -4,525
208 6,218 -5,638
4,885
8,992
1,993
580
1,732
3,005
2,404
3,143
5,718
2,190 2,938 -3,294 -356
2,509 -256 -3,701 -3,957
2,789 -5,954 -3,848 -9,802
22
3,188 3,905 -3,883
3,919 3,586 -7,184 -3, 598
4,666 16,316 -4,620 11,697
638
683
781
850
-515
-615
-484
-469
4,056
2,796
3,173
3,436
-772
-759
-816
-887
-680
-793
-771
-863
875
913
1.C21
1,110
2,819
54
-215
929
-2,977 -158
-1,850 -1,796
-1,261 -1,476
-1,098 -169
-1,317
915
-1,185
807
-1,093
978
-1,185 1,197
-402
-378
-115
12
2,109
2,349
2,487
2,485
-985
-818
-805
-815
-687
-498
-568
-750
1,125
1,146
1,187
1,205
2,608
5,084
4,265
4,357
-1,179
-1,146
-1,044
-1,251
3,066
-146 3,195
366 3,480
-787
-735
-768
-754 1,212
-396 1,161
-485 1,309
1,058
1,736
869
-60
-1,118
816
-920
-1,925 -1,056
1975:
IV..
1,448
3,283
2,079
2,220
1,429
3,938
3,221
3,106
1976:
26,836 -28, 510 -1,674 -1,150 1,145
28, 428 -29,771 -1, 343 -1,215 1,073
III p. 29, 581 -32, 614 -3, 033 -1,221 1,587
l."
lT
1
2
3
Excludes military grants.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in valuation, coverage, and timing.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are
excluded from net investment income and included in other services, net.
4
In concept, the sum of balance on current account and allocations of special drawing rights is equal to net foreign
investment in the national income and product accounts, although the two may differ because of revisions, special handling
of certain items, etc.
(Footnotes continued on following page.)
296
TABLE B-95.—U.S. international transactions, 1946-76—Continued
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Foreign assets in the U.S., net
[increase/capital inflow (-l-)l
U.S. assets abroad, net
[increase/capital outflow (—)|
Foreign official
assets
Year or
quarter
Total
1946
1947
1948
1949 .
Other
U.S.
U.S.
official Governreserve
ment
assets « assets
U.S.
private
assets
Total
Total
Assets
of
foreign
official
reserve
agencies
Statistical
discrepancy
U.S.
official
Allocareserve
tions of Total
Of
assets,
special (sum of which:
net
drawing the
Sea(unadOther rights items
sonal justed,
foreign (SDR)
with adjust- end of
assets
sign
ment
perire- discrep- od)* 8
versed) ancy
-623
-3,315
-1,736
-266
1,758
-33
-415
1,256
480
1955
1956 . . .
1957
1958
1959
24,265
24,299
24,714
23,458
22,978
182
-869
-1,165
2,292
1,035
..
1950
1951 . . .
1952
1953
1954...
20,706
24,021
25,758
26,024
22, 797
23,666
24,832
22, 540
21, 504
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
-2,833
-4,484
-2,979
- 5 , 764
-8,128
2,145
606
1,533
377
171
-1,100
-910
-1,085
-1,662
-1,680
-3,878
-4,180
-3,426
-4,479
-6,618
647
1,701
427
995
1,656
-1,019
-988
-1,122
-360
-907
19,359
18, 753
17,220
16, 843
16,672
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
-4,176
1,222
- 5 , 530
568
- 8 , 025
52
- 8 , 572
-880
-8,823 -1,187
-1,605
-1,543
- 2 , 423
- 2 , 274
- 2 , 200
132
67
249
- 3 , 793
382
- 7 8 7 3,994
- 4 , 554 3,320 - 6 7 4
- 5 , 6 5 3 6,938 3,450 3,367 3,488
- 7 6 1 10, 215
- 5 , 418 9,439 - 7 7 6
- 5 , 436 12,270 - 1 , 3 0 1 - 1 , 5 5 2 13, 571
-457
628
-128
507
- 1 , 430
15, 450
14,882
14,830
15,710
16, 964
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
- 6 , 032
2, 477
- 9 , 596
2,348
- 1 0 , 245
32
-16,434
209
-33,392 -1,434
-1,589
-1,884
-1,568
- 2 , 645
"365
-984
- 4 , 450
10, 422
12, 220
21,452
867 - 4 0 2
717 - 9 , 609
710 - 1 , 7 9 0
-2,107
4,557
14, 487
12,167
13,151
14, 378
15,883
1975
-31,593
-607
- 3 , 4 6 3 - 2 7 , 523 15, 326
5,166
8,427
4,570
16, 226
1974: l.._.
II...
III..
IV...
-7,915
-10,013
-5,210
-10,252
-210
-358
- 1 , 003
137
- 9 , 094 5,906 - 1 , 072 - 1 , 1 3 8
- 9 , 9 2 2 11,049 4,648 4,490
- 3 , 8 5 4 7,612 3,149 2,731
- 9 , 453 7,867 4,256 4,174
6,977
6,401
4,462
3,611
2,167 1,191 14, 588
761 - 2 3 5 14, 946
- 9 2 5 - 2 , 4 9 8 15,893
2,554 1,542 . 15,883
1 9 7 5 : 1 . . . . - 8 , 001
I I . . . - 7 , 943
III.. - 4 , 4 1 1
IV... - 1 1 , 2 3 8
-325
-29
-342
89
1976:1.... -10,007
II... -9,875
Illi'. - 8 , 9 0 1
IV*.
-773
-1,578
-407
91, 389
267
-354
-937
-6,920
-10,060
- 8 , 708
-13,998
-32,323
-899 - 6 ,
-840 -7,
-111 - 3 ,
-952 -10,
-684
-1,008
-1,454
777
074
297
375
- 8 , 550
- 7 , 288
-7,040
2,120
2,467
1,697
2,981
3,317
1,473
765
1,270
1,986
1,661
1,258
741
1,118
1,558
1,363
5,923 6,907 7,362
22, 445 26,895 27, 405
21,127 10, 705 10, 322
18,519 6,299 5,145
32,433 10,981 10,257
6,899
2,837 3,402 2,958
3,907 2,331 1,913
2,708 - 1 , 6 0 6 - 1 , 9 7 7
5,874 2,771 2,272
-565
1,576
4,313
3,103
3,735 1,328
-39
98
- 1 , 5 1 7 - 2 , 561
2,258 1,275
5,396
7,33C
8,471
1,454
3,225
5,458
4,671 1,349
-76
1,729
1,485 - 2 , 8 2 9
3,942
4,105
3,013
2,460
3,308
1,258
16,
16,
16,
16,
256
242
291
226
16,941
18,477
18, 945
18, 747
5 Consists of gold, special drawing rights, convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the International
Monetary Fund (IMF).
0
Includes increases (in millions) as follows: for 1969, $67 resulting from revaluation of the German mark in October
1969; for 1971, $28 in dollar value of foreign currencies revalued to reflect market exchange rates as of December 3 1 ,
1971; for 1972, $1,016 resulting from change in par value of the dollar on May 8,1972; and for 1973, $1,436 resulting from
change in par value of the dollar on October 18,1973.
Beginning July 1974, valuation of SDR and reserve position in the IMF based on a weighted average of exchange rates
for the currencies of 16 member countries. On a pre-July 1974 basis, reserve assets for December 31, 1974 are $15,812
million; for December 31,1975, $16,366 million; and for December 31,1976, $18,895 million.
7
Not available separately.
8
Data beginning 1970 not strictly comparable with earlier data.
9
Includes extraordinary U.S. Government transactions with India.
Note.—Quarterly data for changes in U.S. official reserve assets, U.S. private assets abroad, and foreign assets in the
U.S. are not seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury.
297
TABLE B-96.—U.S. merchandise exports and imports by commodity groups, 1958-76
(Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Merchandise exports1
Year or
month
Merchandise trade
balance
Merchandise imports
Domestic exports
General imports'
Total
domestic
Food, Crude
Food, Crude Manand
bever- mate- Manbever- mate- ufac- Total,
Foreign
ufacci.f. 7
T o t a l " ages, rials tured Totals ages, rials tured
exand to- and goods5
and to- and goods' value
ports 2
bacco fuels«
bacco fuels*
Exports
less
imports,
customs
value
Exports
less
imports,
f.a.s.
Exports
less
imports,
ci.f.
Customs value
F.a.s. value«
1958..
1959..
16,375 16,211 2,688 3,052 .1, 547 13,392 3,550 4,164 5,311
16,426 16,243 2,852 2,996 1,179 15,690 3,580 4,615 7,117
1960.
1961.
1962.
1953.
1964.
19,659
20, 226
20, 986
22,467
25,832
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
2,983
736
3,167
,3, 466
3,743
4,188
4,637
3,942
3,864
3,356
3,775
4,337
.2, 583
.2, 784
.3,668
.4,297
.6, 529
15,073
14, 761
16, 464
17,207
18, 749
3,392
3,455
3,674
3,863
4,022
4,418
4,334
4,691
4,755
5,029
6,863
6,537
7,649
8,070|
9,106
4,586
5,465
4,522
5,260
7,083
26, 742
29,490
31, 030
34, 063
37, 332
19,459
19, 982
20, 717
22,182
25,479
26, 399
29,054
30, 646
33,626
36, 788
4,519
5,186
4,710
4,592
4,446
4,273 .7,433
4,404 19,218
. ...
.
4, 726 20, 844
4,865 23,818
"—
5,006 26, 785
21, 427
25, 618
26,889
33,226
36,043
4,013
4,590
4,701
5,365
5,308
5,440 11,244
5,718 14,446
5,367 15, 756 28,745
6,031 20,624 35,320
6,391 23,011 38,241
5,315
3,872
4 141
837
1,289
2,283
-1,257
-909
42,659
43, 549
49,199
70,823
97,908
42,025
42,911
48,399
69, 730
96,545
5,058
5,076
6,569
.2,938
.5,233
6,692 29, 344
6,441 30,443
7,091 33,740
10, 735 44, 731
15,802 63,523
42,429 2,708
48,342 -2,014
58,862 -6, 384
73,573 1,348
107,996 -3,f "
230
-4,793
-9,663
-2,752
-10,088
39, 951 6,230 6,542 25,907
45, 563 6,404 7,268 30,414
55, 583 7,379 8,838 37, 767
.
69,476 9, 235 [3,446 45,001
13,446 45,
[00,997 10,701 31,842 56,202
F.a.s. value 8
97, 908 96, 545 5,233 5, 802 63, 523 .00,25110,709 32,064 55,223 107,996 - 3 , C
- 2 , 343 -10,088
3,741
107,130 105,641 6,793 15,197 70,951 96,116 9,923 32,596 51,080 103,389 10, 228 11,014
1974.
1975.
1975: Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
9,374
8,756
8,681
8,649
8,222
8,716
1,723
1,530
1,375
1,364
1,145
1,182
1,577
1,310
1,324
1,187
1,193
1,147
5,750
5,680
5,551
5,727
5,586
6,038
9,633
7,927
7,467
7,959
7,263
7,103
4,743
4,351
4,395
4,161
3,894
3,990
10,375
8,501
8,039
8,547
7,814
7,651
-297
791
1,126
615
876
1,529
July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
8,871
8,980
9,104
9,226
9,409
9,250
1,295
1,379
1,358
1,510
1,493
1,409
1,258
1,322
1,199
1,198
1,330
1,222
6,075
6,000
6,049
6,304
6,189
6,291
7,832
819 2,706 4,129
7,877
777 2,716 4,178
8,196 1,020 3,005 4,052
8,169
855 2,912 4,288
8,201
867 2,896 4,362
8,522
825 2,852 4,582
8,413
8,478
8,820
8,794
8,828
9,161
983
1,054
843
981
1,134
671
1976: Jan..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June..
9,103
8,800
8,956
9,394
9,578
9,716
1,510
1,337
1,305
1,521
1,427
1,439
1,223
1,138
1,165
1,284
1,377
1,33:
872 3,233 4,714
5,971 9,176
889 2,913 4,782 9,593
6,035 8,941
6,088 9,607 1,053 2,885 5,183 10, 301
896 3,492 5,307 10,302
6,191 9,596
932 2,759 5,196 9,873
6,443 9,182
6,557 10,094 1,062 3,409 5| 338 10, 889
-132
-213
-734
-302
282
-516
July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
10, 022
9,688
9,872
9,728
9,625
1,563
1,615
1,437
1,598
1,257
1,374
1,250
1,501
1,503
1,501
6,669
6,567
6,50;
6,266
6,578
784
795
826
785
740
856
3,625
2,495
1,887
2,952
2,489
1,978
10, 849 1,068 3,881 5,722
10, 446 982 3,758 5,513
994 3,724 5,625
10,651
943 3,760 5,544
10,424
10, 531 1,012 3,909 5,687
1
2
11,650 - 9 1 7
11,219 - 8 4 8
11, 448 - 8 8 8
11,166 - 7 6 2
11,282 - 1 , 0 0 0
-259
-1,001
829
255
642
102
408
1,215
690
958
1,613
1,064
1,039
1,103
458
502
284
432
581
89
908
1,056
1,208
728
-776
-73
-793
-141
-651 -1,345
-908
-202
-295
396
-377 -1,173
-827
-758
-779
-696
-906
-1,628
-1,531
- 1 , 577
-1,438
-1,657
Beginning 1860, data have been adjusted for comparability with the revised commodity classifications effective in 1965.
Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military
Assistance Program.
3 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
4
Includes fats and oils.
s Includes machinery, transportation equipment, chemicals, metals, and other manufactures. Export data for these
items include military grant-aid shipments.
0 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
7 Ci.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry into United States. Data for 1967-73 are estimates.
8
F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis at U.S. por+ of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for
imports.
Note.—Data are as reported by the Bureau of the Census adjusted to include silver ore and bullion reported separately
prior to 1969. Export statistics coyer all merchandise shipped from the U.S. customs area, except supplies for the U.S.
Armed Forces. Exports include shipments under Agency for International Development and Food for Peace programs as
well as other private relief shipments.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research).
298
TABLE B-97.— U.S. merchandise exports and imports by areat 1970-76
[Millions of dollars]
1976
Jan.-Nov.
Area
1970
1971
Exports (domestic and foreign and special category
shipments)
43,224
44,130
49, 759 71, 339
98, 507 107, 592
30,877
30, 335
63,021
64, 780
64, 006
9,079
14, 463
4,652
10, 365
14,178
4,055
19, 936
28,637
10,679
21,744
29,945
9,563
22, 060
29,125
9,245
1,683
1,737
34, 319 47, 209
12,415 15,104
15, 361 21, 359
4,963
1,580 8,313
Developed countries.
Canada i
Western Europe2
Japan
Australia, New Zealand, and Republic of
South Africa
Developing countries s.
Petroleum exporting countries.
Other countries
Other Western Hemisphere.
Near East.
East and South Asia
Developing Africa
Socialist areas in Europe and Asia.
Unidentified countriesi
General imports.
Developed countries.
Canada
Western Europe2
Japan
Australia, New Zealand, and Republic of
South Africa
Developing countries 3 .
Petroleum exporting countries.
Other countries
Other Western Hemisphere.
Near East.
East and South Asia
Developing Africa
Socialist areas in Europe and AsiaUnidentified countries4
1972
1973
14, 556 2,432
2,659
2,932
3,375 20,963
4,540
10, 334 10,478 11,181
16,423
6,532
6,485
7,275 9,929
1,423
1,816
1,954 3,041
4,029
4,047
4,373 6,600
940
1,009
898 1,334
354
384
883 2,491
677
39,952 45, 563 55, 583 69, 476
12,993
29,259
13,410
33, 744 40, 822
11,092 12,691 14,927
11,169 12,658 15, 423
5,875 7,259 9,064
1,123 1,136 1,408
10,442 11,549 14, 356
2,516 3,060 3,729
7,929 8,489 10, 627
5,836 6,038 7,003
773
371
593
3,397 3,941 5,264
8G0
930 1,253
354
229
227
51
41
24
48, 530
17,715
19, 286
9,676
1974
1975
104, 264
3,769
3,529
3,577
32,695
39, 215
36, 516
8,140
24,555
12, 567
26,648
13,111
23,405
15,809
5,557
9,196
2,044
17, 099
8,946
10,093
2,964
15,319
9,027
9,370
2,717
2,239
552
3,092
505
3,369
374
100,251
96,116
109, 240
59,786
55,966
60, 820
21,929
23, 521
12,338
21,729
20, 737
11,268
23, 801
20, 685
14, 092
1,853
2,000
2,232
2,242
20,313
6,309
10,004
39,443
39,252
47,440
20,488
18,955
21,417
17,835
26, 255
21,185
9,607
1,396
7,043
2,180
18,403
4,740
10, 242
5,941
16, 044
5,431
10, 224
7,436
15, 337
8,254
13, 366
10, 365
593
40
1,007
15
887
11
975
5
1
Beginning January 1973, transshipments of certain grains and oilseeds through Canada are shown as exports to unidentified countries.
2
Includes Finland, Yugoslavia, Greece, and Turkey.
3
Includes developing countries in Oceania.
< Consists of certain low-valued shipments not identified by country.
NOte—Exports are f.a.s. (free alongside ship); 1959-73 imports are Customs values, generally the market value in the
foreign country; and 1974-76 imports are transaction values f.a.s. Petroleum exporting developing countries are as follows:
OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)—Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, !ra,,, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya,
Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela; and other petroleum exporting developing countriesAngola, Bahamas, Bahrain, Brunei, Egypt, Leeward and Windward Islands, Netherlands Antilles, Oman, Trinidad and
Tobago, and Tunisia.
Source: Department of Ccmmerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research).
299
TABLE B-98.—U.S. overseas loans and grants, by type and area,fiscalyears, 1962-75
[Millions of dollars]
Type of program and fiscal period
Total
Near
East
and
South
Asia
Latin
America
East
Asia
TOTAL ECONOMIC LOANS AND GRANTS (OBLIGATIONS AND LOAN AUTHORIZATIONS)!
1962-74 average
Loans
Grants
5,496
3,179
2,318
1,324
961
363
1,163
740
423
7,659
4,429
3,230
2,006
1,277
730
3,981
4,892
1975
„_
Loans
Grants
_
OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE TO LESS
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES*
Obligations and loan authorizations:
1962-74 average
1975
Loan repayments and interest receipts:
1962-74 average
1975
Agency for International Development
Obligations and loan authorizations:
1962-74 average
1975
Loan repayments and interest receipts:
1962-74 average. . .
1975
Food for Peace
Obligations:
1962-74 average
1975
Loan repayments and interest receipts:
1962-74 average
1975
Other
and
interregional
Africa
Europe
1,244
548
696
413
213
202
621
595
27
726
119
607
1,466
931
535
1,743
1,285
457
583
336
248
504
489
13
1,356
109
1,247
1,144
1,785
867
776
969
737
336
334
49
13
616
1,247
675
783
421
330
75
144
93
103
34
71
48
133
4
1
2,160
2,505
578
1,012
463
239
597
507
189
171
4
13
329
563
290
374
170
153
42
115
35
45
23
42
19
18
1
1
1,246
1,328
555
767
127
128
345
217
125
135
44
48
81
357
409
247
177
17
29
56
58
9
29
28
115
Contributions and subscriptions to international
financial institutions 3
Obligations:
1962-74 average
1975
364
784
Other official development assistance, including
Peace Corps *
Obligations:
1962-74 average
1975
211
275
10
6
71
61
27
13
22
28
OTHER ECONOMIC LOANS AND GRANTS TO LESS
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Obligations:
1962-74 average
1975
866
2,026
180
221
296
690
157
783
79
249
149
83
2
513
1,215
105
384
285
416
44
154
23
80
56
179
2
423
408
108
109
Loan repayments and interest receipts:
1962-74 average
1975
TOTAL ECONOMIC LOANS AND GRANTS TO DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Obligations:
1962-74 average
1975
159
436
204
348
649
740
1
Some
3
118
223
80
167
data are preliminary.
Official development assistance is defined as concessional aid for development purposes. Countries have been classified
"less developed" on the basis of the standard list of less developed countries used by the Development Assistance Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. On this basis, "less developed" countries include
all countries receiving U.S. loans or grants except the following which are considered "developed": Japan, Australia, New
Zealand, Republic of South Africa, Canada, and all of Europe except Malta, Spain, and Yugoslavia.
3 Includes paid-in capital subscriptions and contributions to the Inter-American Development Bank, the International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the International Development Association, and the Asian Development Bank.
* Data for certain programs from Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Source: Agency for International Development (except as noted).
300
TABLE B-99.—International reserves, 1952, 1962, and 1972-16
[Millions of SDRs * ; end of period]
Area and country
1952
1962
1972
1976
1973
1974
1975
November
All countries.
Industrialized countries 3 ..
United States.
Canada
Japan..
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Norway, and Sweden).
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Other Europe
2 49,311
62,619
146, 519
152, 240
180, 068
194, 275
36,760
49,249
97,461
95,750
97,935
104,112
111,491
24,714
1,944
1,101
17, 220
2,561
2,022
12,112
5,572
16,915
11,919
4,782
10,151
13,116
4,758
11, 042
13, 568
4,549
10,947
16,415
4,418
14,547
106
1,133
686
960
722
950
1,077
1,753
4,049
6,957
4,068
1,943
2, 503
3,564
9,224
21,907
5,605
4,407
2,382
4,228
7,070
27,497
5,335
5,427
2,801
4,366
7,230
26,461
5,669
5,682
3,792
4,952
10,757
26, 510
4,078
6,073
3,550
4,225
8,341
30,118
5,630
6,271
817
1,667
1,956
1,362
2,919
3,308
3,459
6,960
5,201
4,499
7,063
5,368
3,757
7,360
5,667
5,288
8,908
4,663
4,562
8,844
4,540
11,748
13,421
12, 273
11,168
1,559
2,966
Australia, New Zealand, and South
Africa
1,509
2,066
7,612
6,486
4,956
4,186
Oil exporting countries.
1,699
2,030
10, 043
12, 041
38, 407
48, 285
177
500
443
579
211
289
268
583
679
884
346
2,303
1,595
1,025
483
3,214
1,999
5,320
6,847
4,595
11,667
5,320
9,978
7,429
4,957
19,920
7,569
8,410
7,324
6,308
24, 542
26,498
26, 525
9,950
9,709
8,519
3,604
3,884
4,424
8,791
10, 456
11,188
2,197
2,449
2,394
Iran
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia..
Venezuela....
Other 4
Other less developed areas
Other Western Hemisphere...
4,915
3,518
7,935
4,421
23,205
7,320
19, 655
2,224
1, 6G5
7,492
Other Middle East
826
992
3,478
2,663
796
988
2,695
Other Asia
7,554
Other Africa
1,915
i Special drawing rights. For conversion to U.S. dollars, use the following U.S. dollars per SDR for end of period: 1952—
1.00000; 1962—1.00000; 1972-1.08571; 1973-1.20635; 1974-1.22435; 1975—1.17066; 1976: Nov.—1.14982.
2Includes Cuba,
a Includes Luxembourg.
* Algeria, Indonesia, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates.
Note.—International reserves is comprised of monetary authorities' holdings of gold, special drawing rights (SDR)
reserve positions in the International Monetary Fund, and foreign exchange. Data exclude U.S.S.R., other Eastern European
countries, Mainland China, and Cuba (after 1960).
Source: International Monetary Fund, "International Financial Statistics."
301
TABLE B-100.—U.S. reserve assets, 1946-76
[Millions of dollars]
Gold stock i
End of year or
month
Total reserve
assets
Total
1946
1947
1948 .
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
. .
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1976: Jan
Feb
Mar .
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec.
20, 706
24, 021
25, 758
26, 024
24, 265
24, 299
24, 714
23, 458
22,978
22, 797
23,666
24, 832
22, 540
21, 504
19, 359
18,753
17, 220
16,843
16, 672
15, 450
14, 882
14,830
15,710
7
16,964
14, 487
7
12,167
7
13,151
7
14,378
«15,883
U6,226
818, 747
16, 622
16,661
16,941
17,438
17,958
18, 477
18, 246
18, 586
18, 945
19.013
19,416
8 18. 747
20,706
22, 868
24, 399
24, 563
22, 820
22, 873
23, 252
22,091
21, 793
21.753
22, 058
22, 857
20, 582
19, 507
17, 804
16,947
16, 057
15, 596
15,471
« 13, 806
13, 235
12, 065
10, 892
11, 859
11,072
10, 206
7
10,487
M l , 652
11,652
11,599
11,598
11,599
11,599
11,599
11,599
11,598
11, 598
11,598
11, 598
11,598
11,598
11,598
11,598
Treasury 2
20, 529
22,754
24, 244
24, 427
22, 706
22,695
23.187
22, 030
21,713
21, 690
21,949
22,781
20, 534
19, 456
17, 767
16, 889
15,978
15, 513
15, 388
6 13,733
13,159
11,982
10, 367
10 367
10, 732
10,132
7
10,410
7
11,567
11 652
11,599
11,598
11,599
11,599
11,599
11, 599
11,598
11, 598
11,598
11, 598
11,598
11, 598
11, 598
11, 598
Special
drawing
rights
(SDR) 3
Convertible
foreign
currencies*
lie
99
212
432
781
1,321
2 345
3,528
7 2 781
851
1,100
7
1,958
7
2,166
»2 374
8 2,335
8 2,395
2,376
2,376
2,351
2,325
2 309
2,316
2,318
2,325
2,357
2 352
2,365
s 2,395
1
7
629
276
241
8
5
80
320
333
296
571
936
938
1,365
864
845
1,038
1 066
1,146
320
Reserve
position in
International
Monetary Fund*
1 153
1 359
1,461
1 445
1 426
1 462
1 367
1 185
1 044
1 608
1 975
1 958
1 997
1 555
1*690
1 064
l' 035
769
6 863
326
420
1 290
2 324
1,935
585
7
465
7
552
81 852
8 2,'212
8 4, 434
2,314
2,390
2,420
2,578
3 113
3,198
3,466
3,818
3,952
3 997
4 307
8 4, 434
Includes gold sold to the United States by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with the right of repurchase and gold deposited by the IMF to mitigate the impact on the U.S. gold stock of purchases by foreign
countries for gold subscriptions on increased IMF quotas.
2
Prior to December 1974, excludes gold held by the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). In December 1974,
the Treasury acquired all the gold held by the ESF.
3
Includes initial allocation on January 1, 1970 of $867 million, second allocation on January 1, 1971 of
$717 million, and third allocation on January 1, 1972 of $710 million of special drawing rights (SDR)
in the Special Drawing Account in the IMF, plus or minus transactions in SDR.
4
Includes holdings of Treasury and Federal Reserve System.
5
The United States has the right to purchase foreign currencies equivalent to its reserve position in the
Fund automatically if needed. Under appropriate conditions the United States could purchase additional amounts
equal to the United States quota.
6
Reserve position includes, and gold stock excludes, $259 million gold subscription to the fund in June 1965
for a U.S. quota increase which became effective on February 23, 1966.
7
Includes increase (in millions as follows: for 1969, $67 resulting from revaluation of German mark in
October 1969 ($13 in mark holdings); for 1971, $28 in dollar value of foreign currencies revalued to reflect
market exchange rates as of December 3 1 , 1971; for 1972, $1,016 in total assets resulting from the change
in par value of the U.S. dollar on May 8, 1972 ($828 total gold stock, $822 Treasury gold stock, $155 SDR,
and $33 reserve position); for 1973, $1,436 in total assets resulting from the change in par value of the
dollar on October 18, 1973 ($1,165 total gold stock, $1,157 Treasury gold stock, $217 SDR, and $54
reserve position).
8
Beginning July 1974, the IMF adopted a technique for valuing the SDR based on a weighted average of
exchange rates for the currencies of 16 member countries. SDR holdings and reserve position in the IMF are
also valued on this basis beginning July 1974. At valuation used prior to July 1974 SDR1 = $1.20635), end of
month values are (in millions of dollars):
Total
Reserve
reserve
SDR
position
assets
in IMF
1974: Dec
15,812
2,338
1,817
1975: Dec
16,366
2,404
2,283
1976: Dec
18,895
2,482
4,495
Note.—Gold held under earmark at Federal Reserve Banks for foreign and international accounts is not included in
the gold stock of the United States.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
302
TABLE R-101.—International investment position of the United States at year-end, J971-75
[Billions of dollars]
Type of investment
1971
Net international position of the United States..
1972
1973
1974
19751
56.1
49.6
61.9
77.4
179.5
199.5
225.2
264.8
304.1
U.S. official reserve assets2
Gold
Special drawing rights (SDR)
Reserve position in International Monetary Fund
(IMF)
Foreign currencies
12.2
10.2
1.1
.6
.3
13.2
10.5
2.0
14.4
11.7
2.2
15.9
11.7
2.4
16.2
11.6
2.3
.5
.2
.6
.0
1.9
.0
2.2
Other U.S. Government assets
U.S. loans and other long-term assets 3
U.S. foreign currency holdings and U.S. short-term
assets
34.2
31.8
36.1
34.1
38.8
36.2
38.4
36.3
41.8
39.8
2.4
2.0
2.6
2.1
2.0
U.S. private assets
Direct investments abroad
Foreign securities
U.S. claims on unaffiliated foreigners reported by
U.S. nonbanking concerns
U.S. claims reported by U.S. banks, n.e.c
133.1
83.0
23.5
150.3
90.5
27.6
172.0
103.7
27.8
210.6
118.8
28.6
246.1
133.2
35.2
9.6
16.9
11.4
20.7
13.8
26.7
17.0
46.2
18.3
59.5
U.S. assets abroad
Foreign assets in the United States..
93.6
123.3
149.9
163.3
187.4
210.5
Foreign official assets
U.S. Government securities
Other U.S. Government liabilities
U.S. liabilities reported by U.S. banks, n.e.c.
Other foreign official assets
52.5
44.4
1.2
6.8
63.2
52.9
1.6
8.5
.2
69.6
53.8
2.8
12.6
.5
80.3
57.7
3.5
18.4
.6
87.0
63.2
5.2
15.9
2.7
Other foreign assets
Direct investments in the United States
U.S. securities other than U.S. Treasury securities.
U.S. liabilities to unaffiliated foreigners reported by
U.S. nonbanking concerns
U.S. liabilities reported by U.S. banks:
Long-term liabilities
U.S. Treasury securities and other short-term
liabilities
70.9
13.9
30.1
86.7
14.9
38.8
93.7
18.3
36.8
107.1
22.4
27.8
123.6
26.7
36.5
9.2
10.7
11.7
13.4
13.5
.9
1.2
1.2
21.5
25.7
42.3
1
2
16.9
46.0
Preliminary.
Reserve assets include increases from changes in the par value of the dollar, as officially implemented: on May 8,1972,
the increase totaled $1,016 million, consisting of $828 million gold stock, $155 million SDR, and $33 million reserve position
in IMF; on October 18, 1973, the increase was $1,436 million, consisting of $1,165 million gold stock, $217 million SDR,
and $54 million reserve position in IMF. Beginning July 1974 U.S. holdings of special drawing rights and the reserve
position include changes in the SDR based on changes in a weighted average of exchange rates for currencies of 16
member countries of the IMF.
3
Includes loans repayable in dollars, such as paid-in subscriptions to international financial institutions and other
miscellaneous claims, and indebtedness that the borrower may repay with its currency, with a third-party currency, or by
delivery of materials or transfer of services.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
303
TABLE B-102.—Price changes in international trade, 1968-76
[1970=100]
1976
Area or commodity class
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
Third
quarter
Unit value indexes by area
Developed areas
Total:
Exports
Terms of trade *_.
United States:
91
99
94
99
100
100
105
99
114
100
138
99
172
87
192
89
193
Exports
Terms of trade l .
Developing areas
92
101
95
101
100
100
103
98
106
94
124
93
158
79
176
82
184
82
94
100
97
101
100
100
106
101
115
101
155
111
310
156
327
143
342
145
90
96
92
97
100
100
101
98
110
100
154
116
251
135
255
128
2 131
9?
96
97
99
100
100
100
100
106
143
209
Total:
Exports
Terms of trade 1 .
Latin America:
Exports
Terms of trade
2 270
Southern and Eastern Asia:
Exports
Terms of trade l .
World export price indexes
92
97
100
110
127
182
308
303
313
—
91
95
100
106
122
175
232
219
206
Coffee, tea, and cocoa.
Cereals
82
106
87
99
100
100
89
102
98
111
130
184
155
262
159
232
217
204
94
101
100
104
122
196
224
196
225
84
106
117
94
87
107
117
128
oooo
Primary commodities: Total
103
102
91
80
102
139
164
81
187
256
353
168
262
245
249
176
190
199
204
136
201
252
230
220
92
96
100
119
131
173
473
494
507
89
95
95
96
100
100
101
125
107
140
130
189
175
577
206
588
213
610
91
94
100
105
113
133
162
182
181
84
97
100
87
87
121
153
120
141
Foodstuffs
Other agricultural commoditiess
Fats, oils, and oilseeds.
Textile fibers
Wool
Rubber
Minerals.
Metal ores.
Fuels
Manufactured goods: Total*
Nonferrous base metals*...
1 Terms of trade indexes are unit value indexes of exports divided by unit value indexes of imports.
2 Data are for second quarter 1976.
* Includes forest products.
< Data for manufactured goods are unit value indexes.
Note.—Data exclude trade of socialist areas in Eastern Europe (except Yugoslavia) and Asia.
Sources: United Nations and Department of Commerce (Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research).
304
TABLE B-103.—Consumer price indexes in the United States and other major industrial countries.
1955-76
[1970=100)
Period
1955
1956
1957
1958.
1959
United
States
Canada
France
Japan
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
United
Kingdom
69.0
70.0
72.5
74.5
75.1
69.9
70.9
73.2
75.0
75.9
52.6
52.8
54.4
54.2
54.7
50.4
51.4
53.2
61.2
65.0
70.1
71.9
73.3
75.0
75.7
62.2
64.3
65.2
67.0
66.7
57.8
58 9
62.7
63 8
64.3
59.0
61 9
64.2
66 2
66.5
76.3
77.0
77.9
78.8
79.9
76.7
77.1
78.0
79.4
80.8
56.7
59.7
63.8
69.2
71.9
67.3
69.5
72.9
76.4
79.0
76.7
78.5
80.9
83.3
85.2
68.2
69.7
72.9
78.3
83.0
66 4
67.0
68 3
70.9
74.8
67 2
69.5
72 5
73 9
76.3
81.3
83.6
86.0
89.6
94.4
82.8
85.9
88.9
92.6
96.8
76.7
80.6
83.8
88.3
92.9
81.0
83.2
85.4
89.3
95.0
88.1
91.2
92.5
93.9
96.4
86.7
88.8
91.6
92.8
95.2
78 7
83.3
86 0
89.1
95.8
80 0
83.1
85 2
89.2
94.0
1970
1971...
1972
1973 .
1974
100.0
104.3
107.7
114.4
127.0
100.0
102.9
107 8
116.0
128.6
100.0
106.3
111.5
124.5
153.4
100.0
105.5
111.7
119.9
136.3
100.0
105.3
111.1
118.8
127.1
100.0
105.0
110.9
122.4
146.2
100.0
107.5
115 9
125.2
137.3
100.0
109.5
117 0
126.7
147.0
1975..
138.6
142.5
171.4
152.2
134.7
171.3
151.3
182.5
1974: 1
II
Ill
IV
121.6
125.0
128.9
132.6
122.7
126.8
130.6
134.2
144.1
150.5
156.1
162.7
129.0
134.3
138.7
143.1
124.6
126.6
127.8
129.5
133.6
140.8
150.4
160.0
131.9
135.9
138.3
142.8
137.2
145.3
149 4
156.1
1975: 1
II
Ill
IV
135.0
137.1
140.1
142.3
137.1
140.1
144.9
147.9
165.3
171.0
172.7
176.7
147.0
150.6
153.9
157.3
132.0
134.5
135.5
136.7
164.9
169.3
172.9
178.1
145.8
149.9
152.9
156.3
165.6
180.7
188.7
195.2
1976: 1
II
III
143.7
145.5
147.8
149.8
152.1
154.3
180.4
186.6
189.0
161.1
164.8
168.6
139.0
141.1
141.2
184.8
196.5
201.7
159.0
164.3
165.4
200.9
208.0
214.0
149.0
149.4
156.1
192.8
171.8
141.5
211.6
169.5
219.9
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
.
.
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
Oct
Nov
Sources: Department of Labor and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
305
U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1977 O - 224-250
