Full text of Economic Report of the President : 1976
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ECONOMIC
TRANSMITTED
TO THE CONGRESS
JANUARY 1S76
Economic Report
of the President
Transmitted to the Congress
January 1976
TOGETHER WITH
THE ANNUAL REPORT
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON
: 1976
For sale by the Superintx&de&t of TOc?B^$»ts, U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, B.C. 20$8fc - Price $2.60
Stock. Number 040*0^-00342-8
CONTENTS
Page
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT
1
ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
ADVISERS*
9
CHAPTER 1. ECONOMIC POLICY AND OUTLOOK
19
CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIC POLICY AND DEVELOPMENTS IN 1975
CHAPTER 3. INCOME SECURITY AND HEALTH ISSUES
48
93
CHAPTER 4. THE WORLD ECONOMY IN 1975
128
APPENDIX A. REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1975
153
APPENDIX B. STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME, EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION
165
*For a detailed table of contents of the Councils Report, see page 13.
ill
ECONOMIC REPORT
OF THE PRESIDENT
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT
To the Congress of the United States:
As we enter 1976, the American public still confronts its two greatest
personal concerns: inflation and unemployment. As valid as those concerns are, we should not let them overshadow the very genuine progress
we have made in the past year. The underlying fact about our economy
is that it is steadily growing healthier. My policies for 1976 are intended
to keep us on that upward path.
A year ago the economy was in the midst of a severe recession with
no immediate end in sight. Exceptionally strong inflationary forces were
just beginning to abate, and the prospects for containing unemployment
were not bright.
It is now clear that we have made notable progress. The sharpest
recession in the post-World War II period hit bottom last spring, and a
substantial recovery is now under way. There were 85.4 million Americans at work in December, 1.3 million more than during March of 1975.
While the rate of unemployment remains far too high, it is slowly
moving in the right direction. There have also been appreciable advances
in reducing the rate of inflation. The increase in the consumer price
index was 7 percent between December 1974 and December 1975, down
from a rate of more than 12 percent during the previous 12 months.
In reviewing 1975 it is also wise to remember the large number of
potentially serious economic problems that did not materialize. The
financial crisis that some predicted did not occur. The recession did not
deepen into a cumulative depression. There was no collapse in international trade and investment. The price of bread never rose to a dollar,
nor did the price of gasoline. We did not experience corrosive social
unrest as a consequence of our economic difficulties. While I do not
regard the events of 1975 as fully satisfactory by any measure, we should
find it reassuring that our economic system withstood severe strains and
displayed inherent strengths during the year. I am confident that with
responsible and appropriate policies we can achieve sustained economic
progress in the future.
Unfortunately there is no simple formula or single act that will quickly
produce full economic health. It has taken many years for excessive
stimulation, combined with external shocks like the quintupling of international oil prices, to create the economic difficulties of 1974 and 1975,
and it will take several years of sound policies to restore sustained,
noninflationary growth. I will not make promises which I know, and you
know, cannot be kept. We must restore the strength of the American
economy as quickly as we can; but in so doing we cannot ignore the dangers of refueling inflationary forces, because unchecked inflation makes
steady growth and full employment impossible. The events of the past
several years have once again convincingly demonstrated that accelerating inflation causes instability and disruptions, increases unemployment,
and ultimately precludes real prosperity.
It is often said that we must choose between inflation and unemployment, and that the only way to reduce unemployment is to accept chronic
inflation or rigid controls. I reject this view. Inflation and unemployment are not opposites but are related symptoms of an unhealthy economy. The latter months of 1974 illustrate the relationship between inflation and unemployment. Sharply rising prices created a climate of
uncertainty and were to blame for part of the massive reduction in the
purchasing power of household assets placed in savings accounts and
investment securities. In turn, consumers cut back on expenditures; and
consequently inventories, already swollen by speculative buying, backed
up in distribution channels. By the early months of 1975 there were sharp
cutbacks in production and employment. Thus inflation played a significant part in the surge of unemployment, and if we have a new round of
inflation it is likely to bring still more unemployment. Chronically high
unemployment is an intolerable waste of human resources and entails an
unacceptable loss of material production. Clearly, we must attack inflation and unemployment at the same time; our policies must be balanced.
My economic program for 1976 has three parts: First, a long-term
continuation of the effort to revive the American economy; second,
implementation of the many programs necessary to provide cushions for
the unemployed during the transition to a healthy economy; and third,
the elimination of Government policies and institutions that interfere
with price flexibility and vigorous competition.
I. My key economic goal is to create an economic environment in
which sustainable, noninflationary growth can be achieved.
When private spending is depressed, Government can properly absorb
private savings and provide fiscal stimulus to the economy. But in the
longer run, a viable, steady increase in prosperity is only possible if we
have a vigorous private sector. My policies are designed to support the
long-term growth of the economy by fostering an environment in which
the private sector can flourish.
Increased capital formation is essential to meeting our long-term goals
of full employment and noninflationary growth. Although there is no
shortage of industrial capacity at the present time, many of our current priorities—to become independent in energy, to improve the environment, to create more jobs, and to raise our living standards—require
increased investment. This means that business investment in plant and
equipment as a share of gross national product must increase. We must
also slow the growth of Federal spending in the years immediately ahead,
so that mounting claims by the Federal Government on our economic
resources will not prevent an adequate flow of savings into capital
investments.
Accordingly, I am recommending that budget savings be refunded to
the American taxpayer by means of tax cuts. I have proposed an annual
tax cut of $28 billion from 1974 levels, effective July 1, 1976. If we continue in the years ahead to pursue the kind of budgetary restraint which
I am recommending, another major tax cut will be feasible by 1979. I
strongly believe that the individual wage earner has the right to spend
his own money on the goods and services he wants, rather than having
the Government increase its control over the disposition of his income.
II. Regrettably, a full recovery of the economy will take time. Overly
rapid growth could lead to a renewed increase in inflation that would
ultimately be self-defeating. In the interim we must be mindful of those
who have lost their jobs or who are in fear of losing the jobs they hold.
While the problems of unemployment can be solved only by restoring the
basic strength of our economy, the hardships of unemployment and insecure employment require immediate treatment. In December 1974 and
in March 1975, I signed into law major expansions in the duration and
coverage of unemployment insurance. These changes eased the financial burden of 3.6 million Americans who were unemployed for a part
of last year. Programs in my fiscal 1977 budget will also provide 3.6
million Americans with opportunities for training and employment.
These cushions to unemployment should be viewed as only temporary
remedies. They are not a substitute for productive jobs in the private
sector. The only way that such jobs can be produced is by restoring
the vitality of private industry, which today employs five out of six
American workers.
III. Success in promoting healthy economic growth and a vigorous
private economy depends to a large extent on our eliminating Government policies and institutions which interfere with competition. Tradi-
tionally the American system has relied on competition to organize production and to encourage economic progress. The Government, however, has attempted to correct imperfections in competition by regulating
prices and the quality of services in many different industries. This
attempt has been less than a complete success. Regulation has been
useful in curbing the pricing power of certain monopolies and in fostering the growth of new industries, such as air transportation in the 1940s
and 1950s. It has also helped to ensure compliance with such publicly
determined social goals as clean air and safe working conditions. But in
several industries, regulation has been used to protect and support the
growth of established firms rather than to promote competition.
Over the years, Government regulation has also had many other undesirable effects. Besides reducing competition in many instances, it has
also imposed on complying firms enormous burdens, which raise business costs and consumer prices.
Increasing competition from world markets and the need to maintain
and improve the standard of living of a growing population require constant improvement of the American market system. For this reason I have
asked the Congress to legislate fundamental changes in the laws regulating
our railroads, airlines, and trucking firms. The new amendments will free
these companies to respond more flexibly to market conditions. I have
also urged deregulation of the price of natural gas and sought essential
pricing flexibility for the oil and electric utilities industries. We will
continue to improve all essential protection for public health and safety,
trying at the same time not to increase unnecessarily the cost to the public. My object is to achieve a better combination of market competition
and responsible Government regulation. The programs I have advanced
in recent months have sought such a balance, and I will continue this
course in 1976.
Striking a new regulatory balance is likely to entail some economic and
social costs during a period of transition, and changes must therefore be
phased in carefully. In the long run, however, a revitalized market system
will bring significant benefits to the public, including lower prices.
While our policies focus primarily on the economy of the United
States, we recognize that the range of our interests does not stop at our
shores. The other major countries of the world are also recovering from
the most serious recession they have experienced since the 1930s. Their
first economic priority, like ours, is to put their economies on a sustainable, noninflationary growth path. Success in this endeavor, more than
anything else, will help developed and developing countries alike achieve
higher standards of living.
In recent years the economies of most nations suffered from extraordinarily high inflation rates, due in large part to the quintupling of the
world price for oil, and then moved into a deep recession. The simultaneity of this experience demonstrated once again the strong interdependence of the world's economies. Individual countries have become
progressively more dependent on each other as a freer flow of goods,
services, and capital has fostered greater prosperity throughout the
world. Because of this growing interdependence, however, domestic
policy objectives cannot be achieved efficiently unless we also take
account of economic changes and policy goals in other countries.
In recognition of our growing interdependence, I have consulted
closely with the heads of other governments, individually and jointly. At
the Economic Summit at Rambouillet last November, I met with the
heads of government of five other major industrial countries. There we
laid the foundation for closer understanding and consultation on economic policies. During 1975 we also began discussions on international
cooperation with both the developed and the less developed countries.
This dialogue will assure a better mutual understanding of our problems
and aspirations. Finally, I have agreed with my foreign colleagues that, in
order to create the proper conditions for lasting and stable growth, we
must take important, cooperative steps in monetary matters, trade, and
energy. We have directed our trade officials to seek an early conclusion to
the continuing negotiations on liberalization of trade. This month in
Jamaica we reached significant agreements on strengthening the international monetary system and providing increased support for the developing countries. We have also begun to cooperate more closely with
oil-consuming countries in the effort to become less dependent on imported energy. I intend to consolidate and build upon this progress in
1976.
Of central concern both here and abroad is U.S. energy policy. Without a vigorous and growing industry supplying domestic energy, much of
our industrial development in the next 10 years will be uncertain. And
unless we can reduce our dependency on Middle East oil, we will not
have a sound basis for international cooperation in the development of
new fossil fuel and other energy sources.
As an initial step toward greater self-sufficiency, I signed the Energy
Policy and Conservation Act in December 1975. I concluded that this
act, though deficient in some respects, did provide a vehicle for moving us toward our energy goals. With this mechanism the price of petroleum can be allowed to rise to promote domestic supply and to restrain
consumption. At the end of 40 months, under the act, I may remove
price controls altogether, and I will utilize the provisions of the act to
move toward a free market in petroleum as quickly as is possible and
consistent with our larger economic goals. The act offers flexibility,
which I have already used to start dismantling price controls and allocation arrangements in fuel markets where no shortages exist. The legislation also establishes a national strategic petroleum reserve which will
make our supply of energy more secure and give other nations less inducement to impose an oil embargo.
Measures crucial to our energy future still remain to be enacted, however. Natural gas deregulation is now the most pressing of the issues on
energy before the Congress: shortages grow year by year, while the
country waits for more testimony on supply and demand, or waits for
extremely expensive new synthetic gas plants to replace the natural gas
production choked off by price controls. I urge the Congress to make
deregulation of new natural gas one of its first objectives in 1976. The
legislation I have proposed in order to assure adequate supplies of fuel
for nuclear power plants is also critical. If we are to improve our energy
situation, these measures are necessary. They will also reinforce our efforts to remove unnecessary and deleterious Government interference in
economic activities where the consumer is adequately protected by market
forces.
A year ago I said, "The year 1975 must be the one in which we face
our economic problems and start the course toward real solutions." I am
pleased with the beginning we have made. The course is a long one, but
its benefits for all Americans make the journey worthwhile. The year
1976 must be one in which we will continue our progress toward a better
life for all Americans.
JANUARY 26, 1976.
THE ANNUAL REPORT
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,
Washington, D.C., January 22,1976.
THE PRESIDENT:
SIR: The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its Annual
Report, January 1976, in accordance with Section 4(c) (2) of the Employment Act of 1946.
Respectfully,
ALAN GREENSPAN,
Chairman.
Ow*~ —
PAUL W. MAcAvov.
BURTON G. MALKIEL.
11
CONTENTS
Page
CHAPTER 1. ECONOMIC POLICY AND OUTLOOK
The Need for a Durable Recovery
Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Energy Policies
The Outlook
Consumption
Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Housing and Residential Investment
Inventories and Net Exports
Federal and State and Local Government Purchases
Risks in the Forecast—The Inflation Outlook
Wage Increases in 1976
Food Prices
Will Money Supply Growth Be Appropriate?
Will Capital Requirements for the Remainder of this Decade
Be Met?
An Estimate of Capital Requirements
Inferences
CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIC POLICY AND DEVELOPMENTS IN 1975
Fiscal Policy
Federal Expenditures
Federal Receipts
Balances of the Federal Sector
State and Local and Combined Balances
Money and Credit
Monetary Aggregates
The Money and Bond Markets
Other Developments in Financial Markets.
Ranges for Monetary Growth Rates
Demand and Output
Consumer Income and Saving
Consumer Expenditures
Business Fixed Investment
Residential Investment
Inventory Investment
Net Exports
Government Purchases
13
597-578 O - 76 - 2
19
19
21
23
24
24
25
27
28
29
30
32
34
35
39
41
46
48
50
51
53
54
57
58
58
60
61
63
64
64
65
67
67
68
69
70
CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIC POLICY AND DEVELOPMENTS IN 1975—
Continued
Prices, Wages, and Profits
Prices
Wages
Productivity
Unit Labor Costs
Profits of Nonfinancial Corporations
Employment, Unemployment, and Income Maintenance
Employment
Unemployment
The Mitigating Effects of the Income Transfer System....
Energy Developments
Prices
Consumption
Production
Imports and Exports
Agricultural Developments
Adjustments to Reduced 1974 Crops
The Soviet Grain Shortfall
CHAPTER 3. INCOME SECURITY AND HEALTH ISSUES
Income Security Programs
Aid to Families With Dependent Children
AFDC-UF
Food Programs
Unemployment Compensation
Social Security
Medical Care
Health Status and Medical Expenditures
Health Insurance, Health Expenditures, and Family Income
Resource Allocation and Costs
Medicaid and Medicare Proposals
CHAPTER 4. THE WORLD ECONOMY IN 1975
The Current State of the Cycle
Domestic Demand
External Demand.
The Role of External Demand in the Recovery
Government Policies
The General Outlook
International Economic Cooperation
Trade Policies
14
Page
70
70
72
74
75
75
77
77
79
81
83
83
86
88
90
90
90
91
93
93
96
100
101
106
Ill
117
119
121
124
126
128
128
129
132
134
135
136
137
138
CHAPTER 4. THE WORLD ECONOMY IN 1975—Continued
International Monetary Developments
Exchange Rate Arrangements
Gold Arrangements
International Financial Resources
The Current Financial Position of the Non-Oil LDCs
Earnings Stabilization and Commodity Arrangements
APPENDIXES:
A. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of
Economic Advisers During 1975
B. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, and
Production
Page
139
146
147
149
150
151
153
165
LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS
Tables
1. Growth Rates of Real Business Fixed Investment and Change
in its Share in Real Gross National Product in Recovery
Periods, 1955-76
2. Calendar of Major Private Nonfarm Collective Bargaining
Activity, 1976
3. Growth Rates of Velocity of Money, Real Gross National
Product, and Interest Rates, Selected Periods, 1948 IV1973 IV
4. Shaie of Business Fixed Investment in Gross National Product:
Historical Data and Projected Requirement, Selected Periods,
1965-80
5. Factors Affecting the Cumulative Total Business Fixed Investment Required From 1971 Through 1980, by Major
Industries
6. Changes in Gross National Product in Constant (1972) Dollars,
1973-75
7. Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures, National
Income Accounts Basis, Calendar Years 1974—75
8. Actual and Full-Employment Federal and State and Local
Government Receipts and Expenditures, National Income
Accounts Basis, Calendar Years 1969-75
9. Selected Components of Commercial Bank Credit and Time
and Savings Deposits, 1974-75
10. Changes in Personal Income Measures, 1974-75
11. Changes in Business Inventories, 1974-75
12. Changes in Selected Price Measures, 1973-75
13. Changes in Major Collective Bargaining Settlements, 1973-75.
14. Changes in Costs and Productivity in the Private Nonfarm
Economy, 1974-75
15
26
33
37
44
45
49
52
55
62
65
68
71
73
74
List of Tables and Charts—Continued
Tables—Continued
Page
15. Quarterly Changes in Labor Productivity in Postwar Recessions,
Private Nonfarm Economy
16. Profits of Domestic Nonfinancial Corporations, 1973-75
17. Net Funds Raised in Financial Markets by Nonfinancial Corporations, 1973-75
18. Labor Market Indicators, 1957-58 and 1974-75
19. Nonagricultural Payroll Employment, by Industry, 1974-75 ..
20. Labor Turnover Rates in Manufacturing, 1963-75
21. Unemployment Rates by Reason for Unemployment, Age, and
Sex, 1973-75
22. Income Transfer Programs, 1973-75
23. Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Petroleum, 1973-75
24. Changes in Wholesale Prices of All Commodities and Selected
Fuels and Power, 1966-75
25. Changes in Consumer Prices of All Items and Energy Items,
1965-75
26. Gross Consumption of Energy by Major Source, 1965-75
27. U.S. Grain Exports to the U.S.S.R., Fiscal Years 1971-76
28. Aspects of Selected Federal Income Security Programs
29. AFDC Families, Recipients, and Cash Payments, Selected Years,
1950-75
30. Federal Food Programs, Selected Fiscal Years, 1950-75
31. Distribution of Food Stamp Households by Annual and Monthly
Income, July 1974 and March and July 1975
32. Beneficiaries and Cash Benefits in the Old-Age, Survivors, and
Disability Insurance Program (OASDI), Selected Years,
1950-75
33. Social Security Benefits for Single Men and for Manied Men
With a Dependent Wife Retiring at Age 65 Years and Age
62 Years, 1974
34. Labor Force Participation Rates and Social Security Benefits
for Men 60 Years of Age and Older, Selected Years, 1940-75.
35. Total Health Expenditures and Personal Health Expenditures
by Source of Funds, Selected Fiscal Years, 1940-75
36. Expenditures Per Person for Different Health Services by
Family Income Status and Source of Payments, 1970
37. Changes in Prices of Various Medical and Hospital Services and
Expenses, 1950-75
38. Changes in Industrial Production in Selected Industrial Countries, 1974-75
39. Personal or Household Saving Rates in Selected Industrial
Countries, 1965-75
16
75
76
77
78
79
79
80
82
84
85
86
87
92
94
97
102
103
112
113
115
118
123
124
129
130
List of Tables and Charts—Continued
Tables—Continued
40. Unemployment Rates, Adjusted to U.S. Concepts, in Selected
Industrial Countries, 1962-75
41. Changes in Consumer Prices in Selected Industrial Countries,
1962-75
42. Merchandise Trade in Selected Industrial Countries, 1973-75.
43. Current Account Balances for OECD, OPEC, and Other
Countries, 1973-76
44. Current Account Balances for OECD Countries, 1974-75
131
131
133
141
141
Charts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Interest Rates and Monetary Growth
Domestic Fuel Production.
Interest Rates
Interest Rate Differentials.
Foreign Exchange Rates
17
59
89
142
143
145
CHAPTER 1
Economic Policy and Outlook
T
HE U.S. ECONOMY is now recovering from the most severe recession
in postwar history. Spurred by a lower inflation rate, tax cuts, and
increasing employment, significant gains have already been made in the
purchasing power of consumers. Production has been rising rapidly since
the spring of last year. But because this recovery started from very low levels
of resource utilization, unemployment will almost surely remain distressingly
high this year even though large gains in employment are expected during
1976, The social hardships and economic waste associated with the current
level of unemployment should not be underestimated. Accordingly, we must
seek to lower unemployment as rapidly as is consistent with the need to
ensure that the reductions will be lasting. Policies that might speed the
decline in unemployment in the short run should not be so expansionary as
to lead to increased instability and greater social hardships in the long run.
Thus, policies for 1976 must attempt to sustain the recovery now in progress but at a pace sufficiently moderate to prevent renewed imbalances and
a rise in inflation. They must also continue to mitigate the hardships associated with high unemployment. At the same time, our present policies must
lay the foundations for a long period of steady growth.
THE NEED FOR A DURABLE RECOVERY
Because we began the present recovery with more slack than in any of
the previous postwar cycles, a much longer period of above-average growth
will be required for a return to full resource utilization. Even under the best
of circumstances the return to full .employment cannot realistically be accomplished this year or next. To ensure that we return to high levels of
resource utilization—as is our objective—the recovery must therefore be
a durable one.
Our best estimate is that real gross national product (GNP) will be 6 to
6/2 percent higher in 1976 than in 1975. This growth rate is not a goal.
Rather, it is a projected outcome of the forces of recovery that were set in
motion in 1975, by stimulative fiscal measures, by a return of consumer and
business confidence, and by external economic factors discussed elsewhere in this Report. The availability of much unemployed labor and
unused plant capacity requires that economic policy should continue
19
to support an economic expansion at growth rates significantly above
the long-term growth of capacity output. But our knowledge of the
interdependence between real growth and inflation is not sufficiently
precise to permit a direct translation from general goals to specific targets.
As a consequence, policies cannot be designed to reach any particular
targets with a high degree of confidence. We believe, however, that
policies consistent with a moderate but sustained recovery offer a far
safer and surer route to full employment than policies which attempt to
engineer a very rapid return to full capacity. What we need is a durable
recovery—not a boom that carries the seeds of renewed instability in prices,
incomes, and employment. Our view is based on several considerations.
The difficult inflationary period through which we have come makes
it likely that overly expansionary policies, which risk increasing inflationary
pressures, will quickly influence consumers' and producers' expectations. It is
a harsh fact of economic life that expectations of inflation are built into
labor and other 'contracts in such a way as to be partly self-fulfilling.
Moreover, increased inflationary expectations could restrain both consumption and investment expenditures and thus jeopardize long-term
economic goals. High and variable rates of inflation not only create
imbalances and sectoral distortions by capriciously changing the real
value of existing contracts, but they also raise risk premiums in investment decisions and in wage bargains. As such, inflation could pose a major
threat to the viability of the present recovery. Policies that are perceived to
entail higher inflation risks may not, therefore, affect economic activity
and employment in a way that would normally be expected. Even if such
policies should succeed in accelerating the recovery in the short run, it
would be difficult to decelerate from unusually rapid growth rates to sustainable rates without running the risk of amplifying future fluctuations
in economic activity.
There is a lesson to be drawn from past policy mistakes. The history
of monetary and fiscal policies demonstrates that we have a great deal
to learn about implementing discretionary policy changes. Our ability
to forecast is at best imperfect, especially in an increasingly complex and
interdependent world, and the difficulties in forecasting grow larger as
we extend the period for which the forecast is made. This is a significant
problem because of the time lags involved in altering the pace of economic activity through discretionary monetary and fiscal actions. There
is a perception lag in diagnosing the problem, a reaction lag in selecting
the appropriate response, and an implementation lag in having the policy
prescription accepted and put into effect through our political and administrative processes.
We also lack reliable estimates of how long it takes before the economy
responds to policies once they are undertaken and how large the response
will be. This is especially true now because the high rates of inflation in
recent years have made price expectations a much more important deter-
20
minant of consumer and business behavior than they formerly were, but
there has not been sufficient experience to pin down how inflationary
processes affect key relationships within the economy. With respect to fiscal
policy there is the additional complication that countercyclical increases in
Government expenditures are difficult to check during later upswings. Because countercyclical policy changes may be slow to take hold and then
hard to reverse, their effects may extend well past the time when they are
most needed. Consequently a significant danger exists that, instead of
smoothing economic fluctuations, discretionary changes in policy aimed at
demand management may themselves become a source of economic
instability.
The proper conclusion is not that we should forswear the use of discretionary policy. Some external shocks to the economic system can and
should be offset. Furthermore, provided the growth in Federal outlays
becomes more moderate than in the years just past, occasional discretionary adjustments of the income tax schedules are called for in order
to prevent excessive growth in Federal taxes. In fact these changes may
have to be more frequent if the rate of inflation continues at a somewhat
higher average level than at comparable levels of economic activity in the
past. Thus, discretionary policies do have an important function in our
economic system. But we must be mindful of the great difficulties in successfully executing countercyclical policies.
What is called for in our judgment is a steadier course in macroeconomic policies than has been followed in the past. We should set policies
broadly consistent with sustainable long-term noninflationary growth and
try to limit the size and duration of any policy deviations that promise
short-term benefits but risk interfering with our long-run goals. The severity
of the recent recession does call for maintaining stimulative economic
policies to accommodate an expansion of real output at a rate above that
sustainable in the long run. But departures from the policies that are appropriate in the long run should be moderate. If we do not commit ourselves
to a gradual recovery over a period of years, we may increase economic
instability and lose our chance for sustainable growth, which we believe
offers the safest and surest route to full employment in future years.
MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES
It is much easier to enunciate the general principle of stability in policy
than to apply it to specific circumstances. The challenge to current monetary
and fiscal policy is to set the stage for a gradual transition from stimulation,
which is still needed in the current year, to a set of policies appropriate
for long-run growth.
The monetary authorities recognize that the present levels of output and
employment are still very far from satisfactory. Yet concern with the achievement of greater economic stability in future years suggests that any rate of
growth in money which is at the upper limit of the tolerance range an-
21
nounced by the Federal Reserve (7J/2 percent for MI, 10J/2 percent for M 2 ),
could not be maintained indefinitely if progress toward lower inflation rates
is to continue.
The thrust of fiscal policy will also have to change gradually. Fiscal policy
became more expansionary when the recession worsened and unemployment
mounted in 1974 and in early 1975. Over the near term, these expansionary
fiscal policies will be maintained as most of the provisions of the Tax Reduction Act of 1975 have been extended from the end of last year to the middle
of this year through the Revenue Adjustment Act of 1975. Well before passage of that act, the President directed the Office of Management and
Budget to examine ways to slow the growth in Federal expenditures so as to
prevent further increases in the Government's role in allocating our resources.
He further directed that any savings be refunded to taxpayers in order to
maintain gains in private purchasing power and employment. The budget
which the President has proposed provides for a marked deceleration in the
growth of Federal spending, as outlays are to be held to $394 billion in fiscal
1977, which ends in September of next year. Starting in July 1976, taxes are
to be cut by about $28 billion relative to what they would be under 1974 law.
Because of the recovery, Federal receipts are then expected to grow over
three times as fast as outlays between fiscal 1976 and fiscal 1977 causing the
deficit to fall by more than $30 billion. However, the full-employment balance on a national income accounts basis, will show little change during calendar 1976 from the $6-billion deficit estimated for the second half of last
year. In this way the fiscal policy stimulus will be maintained throughout
1976. It will then be reduced in 1977 because of the proposed increase in
social security tax rates and the much faster rise in individual income tax
receipts than Federal expenditures.
At the present time, with substantial reserves of labor and capacity available, consumption and investment are complements, not substitutes. Indeed, public expenditures in excess of tax receipts are needed to absorb the
excess of private saving over private investment demand at current levels
of economic activity. In 1977 and beyond, however, private investment and
publicly supported consumption will become increasingly competitive. To
avoid inducing a policy and output mix that is incompatible with the requirements of long-term economic growth, fiscal stimulus must be diminished
gradually during coming years. Without greater fiscal restraint, the saving flows available for private capital formation might eventually become too
small. Furthermore the danger of intensifying inflationary pressures under
such conditions would preclude expanding the money supply sufficiently to
finance both the Government deficits and the needed improvements and
growth in our industrial capacity.
It is this public-versus-private allocation problem to which the President's program tying a $28-billion cut in the growth of Federal outlays to a
comparable cut in taxes is addressed. The source of the problem has been
the rapid growth in nondefense budget expenditures in recent years. During
22
the 1960s some growth in the share of national resources allocated to the nondefense expenditures of the Federal Government was considered desirable in
order to alleviate poverty and to accomplish other important social goals.
Further growth in the ratio of public expenditures to total output, however,
directly bears on fundamental issues concerning the efficiency of the economy, equity for the working population, and the scope for private decision
making in our economy.
ENERGY POLICIES
The Energy Policy and Conservation Act enacted in the closing days of
1975 initially reduces the price of crude oil produced domestically, but
its immediate effect on the prices of petroleum products is still uncertain.
Under this act the 1976 rate of increase in the average price received for
domestically produced crude oil will equal the percentage rise in the GNP
deflator between preceding quarters. An additional 3 percent increase can
be granted during 1976 upon a Presidential finding that this increase will
stimulate the supply of domestic petroleum. However, the total price increase may not exceed 10 percent during the first year. The act also authorizes the President to propose further oil price increases, subject to disapproval
by either House of Congress. Oil price controls are no longer mandated 40
months after the date of enactment, but the act itself is in force for 5 years.
Government controls on the prices of individual petroleum products and on
the allocation of these products among consumers can be removed under
authority granted by the legislation.
The $2 per barrel special import fee on crude oil was removed in December of last year. In conjunction with the rollback of domestic crude
prices at the start of 1976, this is expected to cause the average price of
crude oil entering refineries to be somewhat lower during 1976 than it was in
1975, despite the increase in world market prices. Furthermore, because the
initial price rollback mandated by the new law will probably not be fully offset
by price increases authorized later in 1976, the average price received by
domestic producers at the end of 1976 will most likely still be slightly below
that received by them at the end of 1975. Whether domestic oil prices approach world market levels by 1979, when controls may be removed, depends
on foreign pricing behavior and on the extent to which the authority provided
in the act is used to obtain higher prices for domestic production.
While the Energy Policy and Conservation Act clarified the near-term outlook for domestic oil prices, the outlook for both the price and the supply of
natural gas remains uncertain. Adequate supplies of natural gas may not be
available in 1976 and beyond. Severe curtailments of gas supplies to industry were avoided in both 1974 and 1975 because unusually warm weather
and the low level of economic activity reduced demand. Nonetheless, the
volume of curtailments rose in each of those years and will almost certainly
rise in 1976 as well. When shortages do occur, some of their harmful effects
can be alleviated temporarily by emergency procedures adopted by the Fed-
23
eral Power Commission, but more fundamental changes are necessary.
Deregulation of the price of new natural gas, as proposed by the Administration and accepted by the Senate in 1975, would redirect supplies toward their
most valuable uses, increase incentives to enlarge future supplies, and lead
to reduced imports of oil and liquid natural gas.
THE OUTLOOK
The policies outlined above should sustain the recovery in the near term
while providing the foundations for sound growth over the longer term.
With real GNP estimated to grow by 6-6/2 percent from 1975 to 1976,
the unemployment rate should fall by almost a full percentage point. The
rate of inflation is expected to continue with little change from late 1975
throughout this year; and hence the GNP deflator, which had risen by 9 percent from 1974 to 1975, should rise by only about 6 percent from 1975 to
1976.
Thus far the recovery has been accelerated by a very sharp change in
the behavior of inventories, while real final sales have shown fairly steady
growth since the first quarter of last year. As detailed in Chapter 2, the
sudden cessation of high rates of inventory liquidation in mid-1975 accounted
for a substantial part of the growth in real GNP during the last half of
that year. The bulk of excess inventories appears to have been worked off, and
more normal rates of inventory accumulation should become evident in 1976.
Nevertheless, year over year, almost 1 l/i percentage points of the growth in
real GNP will still be due to the inventory swing. Once inventories reach
desired levels, the continued strength of the recovery will depend on the vigor
of final demand for goods and services.
CONSUMPTION
Personal consumption expenditures are expected to impart considerable
strength to the economy. During 1976 consumption is projected to rise by
almost 6 percent in real terms, compared with 3.9 percent during 1975,
yielding a year-to-year increase of 5 percent. A close to 6 percent rise during
1976 is consistent with about 5 percent growth in real disposable income, because the average saving rate is projected to fall below the abnormally high
8J4 percent level registered last year. A gradual decline in the saving rate is
predicated on year-over-year declines in the rate of increase in consumer
prices and in unemployment and layoff rates. Even so, the saving rate for
1976 is expected to remain above its 7 percent average for the previous cycle
(1969-73).
Recent experience suggests that consumers react to heightened inflationary
expectations by saving more, rather than by advancing their purchases of
storable commodities. Thus we expect a fall in desired saving, or a rise
in the propensity to consume, as lower inflation rates are incorporated
into consumer expectations. Uncertainties which tend to reduce consumption
are also created by high unemployment rates and particularly by high rates
24
of job layoffs. As the unemployment rate and layoff rate continue to recede,
we would therefore expect an alleviation of concern about job security
to manifest itself in reduced saving and higher consumption in the household sector. Increased consumer confidence and lower saving rates may also
result from the partial restoration during 1975 of the real financial assets of
households, which had eroded severely in 1973 and 1974.
Consumer expenditures on durable goods should increase much more
rapidly than spending on nondurables and services. The expected rise in
automobile production and purchases could become steeper in the second
half of this year, when 1977 models with substantially improved fuel economy
and engineering features are scheduled for introduction. Sales of furniture
and household equipment should be stimulated by the projected rise in housing completions.
In 1975 over one-third of the $91-billion growth in personal income from
1974 was due to the rise in government transfer payments. Disposable income
grew proportionately more than personal income because of the Tax Reduction Act of 1975. From 1975 to 1976, government transfer payments and disposable income should both grow less rapidly than personal income in spite
of the additional tax cuts accruing from adoption of the President's budget
program. Hence, while the growth in personal consumption expenditures led
the recovery in final sales that started early last year, the role of continuing
the recovery beyond 1976 must increasingly be taken over by fixed investment.
NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT
Nonresidential fixed investment normally lags in economic recoveries, and
it is likely to do so again. Nevertheless we expect some strength to develop
in business investment in the course of 1976, on the assumption that substantial modernization in plant and facilities will be planned and readily
financed. A sustained rise in profits, retained earnings, and cash flow in this
year and next should allow the share of business fixed investment in GNP
to continue to grow, even as debt-equity ratios are reduced toward desired
levels.
According to a recent survey conducted by the Department of Commerce, businesses plan to increase capital spending by 5^2 percent from 1975
to 1976. Assuming that prices of capital goods rise by about 6-7 percent per
annum, this implies a decline in real business fixed investment which
is inconsistent with past behavior during comparable stages of recovery.
During the early stages of recoveries, businesses usually underestimate the
strength of final sales. Even though the present recovery started from a lower
measured rate of capacity utilization than previous recoveries, businesses are
likely to spend more on new plant and equipment in 1976 than they expected at the start of this year, and the year-to-year rise could be as high as
4-5 percent in real terms, or approximately 8 percent from the second half
of 1975 to the second half of 1976.
25
While the previous cyclical lows in the Federal Reserve's capacity utilization index for manufacturing were 75 percent in both 1958 and 1971, this
index fell to less than 70 percent in 1975. In recent years, however, the rate
of economic obsolescence of existing plant and equipment may have accelerated because the desired combinations of inputs, outputs, and production
techniques have been altered by recent sharp changes in relative costs and
prices. For this reason the exceptionally high level of spare capacity in the
present recovery is expected to have less effect in slowing the recovery of
investment spending from its current low level. Partly because of the need
for modernization, investment in equipment is expected to rise faster than
investment in structures. In the nonmanufacturing sector, public utilities
believe that investment will rise significantly this year after a rapid increase
in starts and in carryover of investment projects from last year.
Even if real business fixed investment grows by as much as 8 percent from
the second half of 1975 to the second half of this year, the growth rate will be
low by historical standards. Table 1 shows that the ratio of real business fixed
investment to GNP would grow no faster than in preceding recoveries and
would still be only 9.4 percent in the second half of 1976. This is particularly
disappointing since it is shown later in this chapter that higher ratios of
business fixed investment to GNP are likely to be necessary in future years if
the capital required for an eventual return to high employment, greater
energy independence, and a cleaner environment is to be in place by the end
of 1980. Some further growth in the share of profits in national income may
be required before the share of business fixed investment in GNP can rise.
The cyclical rebound in the profit share that started in 1975 is expected to
continue in 1976; and equally important, the share of book profits accounted
for by inventory profits will remain low. Since inventory profits, which are
realized mainly by firms using the first in, first out (FIFO) method of
inventory accounting, are part of taxable book profits, their taxation reduces
TABLE 1.—Growth rates of real business faced investment and change in its share in real gross
national product in recovery periods, 1955-76
Annual
growth
rate of real
business
fixed
investment »
(percent)
Period
From a year earlier to:
1955IV-1956I
1959:III-IV
1962: ll-lll .
1972: ML.
1976:III-IV»
15.3
10.8
9.8
6.0
7.9
Shares of real business fixed
investment in real GNP
Actual
share*
(percent)
Change in
share
(percentage
points)
8.9 to 9.7
8.4 to 8.9
8.7 to 9.0
9.8 to 9.9
9.2 to 9.4
0.8
.'3
'.2
i Change from half year following cyclical trough quarter to corresponding period a year later.
The following quarters are those designated as cyclical troughs by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER):
1954 III, 1958II, and 19611. Subsequent trough quarters are assumed to be 1970IV and 1975II as NBER has not designated
these quarters as cyclical troughs.
3
Shares for the two half years used in computing the growth rates in column 1.
1
Projection.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and National Bureau of Economic Research.
26
cash flow available for the expansion of both fixed and working capital. If
inventory profits should be more than $20 billion lower in 1976 than in
1974, as we expect, nonfinancial corporations will save at least $8 billion in
taxes, or about three times as much as the annual tax savings from the
higher investment tax credits provided in 1975 and 1976. Even more important, operating profits may be increasing by over 25 percent from 1975 to
1976, more than twice as fast as national income, while dividends will rise
less than profits. The resulting level of corporate cash flow, excluding
inventory profits, may be about equal to the total fixed investment in depreciable assets projected for nonfinancial corporations in 1976. Adjusted for
inventory profits, the contribution of cash flow has not been this high since
1965, although internally generated funds generally matched annual purchases of physical assets from 1955 to 1965. The gain in cash flow would
be all the more impressive since net interest paid by nonfinancial corporations
is expected to be about six times as large in 1976 as it was in 1965. This rapid
growth in interest payments is attributable to higher inflation premiums in
interest rates and to the sharp expansion in corporate debt over the past
decade.
HOUSING AND RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT
In the past, changes in the supply of mortgage credit rather than changes
in demand have frequently dominated short-run movements in housing
starts. But in 1975 demand factors, not the unavailability of mortgage
credit, weakened the recovery in housing. In spite of large savings inflows into
the thrift institutions, mortgage interest rates have declined little during the
past year. The liquidity of the thrift institutions is expected to remain high
in 1976, but the high stock of unsold new single-family homes and rapid
cost increases, particularly in the land and materials components of home
prices, suggest that there may be only a small further rise in single-family
starts. On the other hand, the recovery of multifamily siarts from the
extremely depressed levels of 1975 should begin to accelerate in 1976,
spurred in part by the $3 billion in mortgage commitment funds at 7]/2
percent interest released by the Government National Mortgage Association
in January 1976. Thus total housing starts should reach a level of about 1%
million units by year-end, and the real value of residential construction is
expected to rise by about 30 percent from 1975 to 1976, on the strength of
an almost 40 percent rise in housing starts.
Household formation rates, the demographic structure of households, and
prospective attrition in the existing housing stock are the factors most
important to the long-run outlook for housing starts. During the first half of
the seventies, the average annual increase in the number of households was
approximately 1.5 million. According to the Census Bureau's middle projection (Series B), the number of households is expected to continue to
grow at this rate during the remainder of the seventies. The demand for
new dwelling units will be raised further by normal growth in the number
27
of vacant units and second homes, by the demolition of old units, and
by other losses, including conversion to other uses.
It has been estimated that since the Korean war 0.8 percent of the housing
stock has been replaced each year on the average, but in recent years existing units have become more profitable to retain. The costs of new construction and new financing have risen faster than most other costs; and sewer
moratoriums, land use controls, and zoning and environmental restrictions
have also limited new supplies. Thus the 1.7-1.8 million starts projected for
the end of 1976 may not be far below what may become normal levels if
replacement demands should decline.
Most of the growth in housing starts during the current year is projected
to come from multifamily starts. In future years such starts could account
for 35-40 percent of the total, excluding mobile homes, compared with only
about 24 percent in 1975. The proportion of households and primary individuals owning homes may grow only slightly in coming years, and the replacement rate of multifamily units may be larger than that of single-family
units. Moreover the declining average size of households and the continuing
adjustment to sharply higher energy and land prices will favor the growth
of multiple-dwelling units over single-family homes.
By the end of 1976 multifamily starts may still account for less than 35
percent of total starts, because a large overhang of foreclosed or delinquent
projects has depressed prices and discouraged construction financing in
many parts of the country. Sales of newly constructed condominium units
have been slow, and the profitability of new apartment houses has remained
low because rents have risen far less than other prices.
Federally assisted starts under the Section 8 leasing program and the Section 235 homeownership program of the Housing and Urban Development
Act are expected to raise total starts by 5-9 percent this year. Over a period
of years any increase in federally assisted housing starts would be largely
offset by a decrease in unassisted starts, but this factor will not be important in
1976.
INVENTORIES AND NET EXPORTS
The extraordinary reduction in inventories in the first half of last year,
together with the faster growth in final sales which began in the second
quarter, restored inventories to more normal levels. By the end of 1975
the ratio of real business inventories to final sales was the same as
the average for 1969-73 and lower than the ratio for 1974, when large
inventory accumulations had occurred. The ratio of inventories to sales is
expected to decline a little more in early 1976. We estimate that the stock
of inventories will grow at about the same rate as final sales after the middle
of 1976.
During the first half the annual rate of growth in GNP should exceed the
growth in final sales before the return to normal rates of inventory accumulation is completed. The growth in domestic sales should be greater than the
28
growth in total sales, because net exports are expected to decline throughout
this year from their recent high levels. In the first half large shipments of agricultural commodities, particularly to the Soviet Union, should offset part of
the increased imports that normally accompany the growth in domestic income and production. Thereafter we expect the growth in exports to fall
farther below the growth in imports, because the U.S. recovery started earlier
than those of most of our major trading partners. The structure of foreign
sales is such that our exports, particularly those of capital goods, are unlikely
to rise rapidly until the recoveries abroad have become more advanced. One
should point out, however, that movements in both inventories and net exports have proved extremely difficult to forecast.
FEDERAL AND STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES
In real terms Federal purchases are expected to grow by only 1 percent
from 1975 to 1976, and State and local government purchases by 2-3
percent. Purchases of goods and services currently account for about 35 percent of total Federal expenditures, but for over 90 percent of the total expenditures of State and local governments.
Mainly because of diminishing defense expenditures, the real value of
Federal purchases declined in every year from 1968 to 1975; and Federal
purchases in 1976 will still be one-fourth below their 1968 peak. The average
annual growth rate of real State and local government purchases, however,
was about 4 percent from 1968 to 1973. This rate then declined by almost
half, largely as a consequence of the recession of 1974-75 and the financing
difficulties experienced by some State and local units of government.
Owing to measures already taken and to longer-run factors that will help
to slow expenditure growth, most State and local governments will be able
to cope with expenditure pressures without adding unduly to the tax burdens
of their citizens in this and the coming year. The growth rate of State and
local government employment remained moderate in 1975 if one excludes expanded public service employment and summer youth employment funded
through Federal grants. Furthermore the growth in construction expenditures by State and local governments is expected to continue to decline as
the school-age population falls and as the interstate highway building program approaches completion. Higher-density residence patterns and more
concentrated commercial development projects will tend to reduce the
growth in local expenditures because they lower the demand for new access
roads, municipal utility lines, and related facilities. Higher municipal bond
rates due to inflation and to the larger risk premiums which some units of
government have encountered are also restricting construction, in some cases
because the maximum interest rate that State and local governments can pay
is limited by law.
Slower growth in purchases by State and local governments, tax increases,
and the beneficial effects of economic recovery on State and local receipts
helped eliminate the operating deficit of these units in the second half of
29
597-578 O - 76 - 3
1975. Assuming that purchases of goods and services will continue to
advance by less than 3 percent a year in real terms, compared with more
than 4 percent in most years from 1963 to 1973, the operating budget of
State and local governments as a group should be in surplus in 1976 if the
recovery continues as expected. The surplus could be quite large if those
governmental units whose credit rating and borrowing ability have been
impaired in recent years continue to retrench, and if their savings are not
matched by more expansionary policies on the part of governmental units
which have remained fiscally sound. State and local governments sometimes
accelerate expenditure growth during the advanced stages of recovery, but
they will probably wait longer than usual to do so in the current upturn,
particularly if the rate of growth in Federal grants is reduced below the high
rates that have prevailed so far in the seventies.
The general revenue sharing program, which provided for $30 billion of
grants to State and local governments from 1972 through 1976, is expected
to be renewed in 1976. When it was introduced in a period of high and
rising economic activity, it may have encouraged State and local governments to overextend themselves during that expansion. Failure to renew the
general revenue sharing program in 1976, however, could weaken the fiscal
stability of State and local governments just when they have adjusted to the
loss in receipts resulting from the 1974-75 recession.
The Federal Government, during the 1975 budget crisis of New York
City, indicated a determination not to underwrite continued massive growth
in local spending. Aided by those redistributional mechanisms already built
into the established Federal grant programs, State and local governments are
now likely to provide for cyclical fluctuations by accumulating more reserves
during periods of high economic activity than they have done in the past. In
1976, Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments are budgeted to
rise by about $5 billion, compared with more than $10 billion from 1974 to
1975. Thus at least 75 percent of the expected growth in the expenditures of
State and local governments in 1976 will have to be financed from their
own sources.
RISKS IN THE FORECAST—THE INFLATION OUTLOOK
Although a sustained expansion in production and employment is expected with current policies, as always a number of factors could throw the
recovery off track. The most important would be a resurgence of inflation.
We have projected that the rate of price increase will not accelerate and will
even decline somewhat from 1975 to 1976. If this price forecast should be
too low, both consumer and business spending could be adversely affected.
As noted above, recent experience suggests that consumers react to
heightened expectations of inflation by increasing their saving and reducing
their consumption, even of those durable goods that might be expected to
provide an inflation hedge. Furthermore the rise in interest rates associated
with higher rates of inflation could induce disintermediation and threaten the
30
projected recovery in housing starts. A sustained rise in the rate of inflation
would also undermine the prospect for gains in business investment. Under
current tax laws, inflation raises the real tax liabilities of corporations both in
the present and in future years. Moreover, the increased macroeconomic
instability invariably associated with high rates of inflation drives up risk
premiums in financial markets. Hence the outlook for prices has a crucial
bearing on whether the output forecast can be realized.
The past year has shown once again that the rate of change in product
and factor prices is not permanently insensitive to reductions in demand.
However, it has also shown that inflationary expectations, once aroused,
acquire a powerful momentum that can be reduced only gradually and then
at great social cost and economic hardship. As the Government adheres to a
policy designed to prevent a resurgence of inflation, the behavior of the
private sector helps determine how large or how small the costs of holding
down the rate of inflation will be.
In the short run, "cost push" factors can influence the rate of inflation
and unemployment and thereby set in motion Government policies that
may have lasting effects. When such external shocks as the rise in
international oil prices or other cost push factors increase the rate of inflation, Government authorities are faced with a painful dilemma. If they
do not accommodate cost push factors by letting aggregate nominal
demand rise sufficiently, then real output will fall and unemployment will
increase to the extent that other prices resist downward pressure. On the
other hand, if these shocks are fully accommodated, forces may be set in
motion which perpetuate and even increase the inflation rate. Should the
rate of inflation accelerate, heavier costs in unemployment, lower output,
and forgone opportunities would eventually have to be incurred to bring
it under control. For this reason it is important to examine the probable
cost push pressures on prices over the near term.
The projected 6 percent rise in the price level from 1975 to 1976 is combined with a 5-6 percent increase in unit labor costs of private employees in
the forecast. Since compensation per hour is projected to grow by 8-9
percent, the growth in output per hour is estimated to be at least one-third
of this rise. Unit labor costs actually ceased to rise in the first 2 quarters of
the present recovery, as productivity gains matched the rise in compensation
per hour. In 1976, however, somewhat faster growth in compensation per
hour and slower productivity growth will push the rise in unit labor costs
close to the inflation rate expected for the year.
Because unit labor costs are the largest component of cost and because
income shares tend to change rapidly only within but not between cycles,
the rate of price increase and the rise in unit labor costs tend to converge
in the long run. If changes in compensation per hour should accelerate
beyond 9 percent in the near term, inflationary pressures could be intensified.
As a consequence inflation rates higher than 6 percent could be built into
the economy for some years to come. By the same token, if firms should
31
attempt to raise prices more rapidly than expected in the absence of any
acceleration of either wages or the prices of materials in world markets, they
too could jeopardize the process of recovery. Such price increases would
initially slow the growth in real earnings of labor and then stimulate an
acceleration of wage demands. Combined with the trend rate of growth in
productivity, these accelerated wage increases would assure either a continuation of the increased pace of inflation or a lower real output level or
both.
WAGE INCREASES IN 1976
Forecasting short-run changes in nominal or real wages is particularly
risky in 1976 because of uncertainty about the rate of inflation and about
the effect of the high, although declining, rate of unemployment.
Normally the pressure for job applicants to accept lower wages would be
expected to rise with increases in both the level and duration of unemployment. On the other hand, there may be less willingness to accept lower
real wages because income maintenance programs, which have expanded
rapidly in the last 2 years, replace a greater portion of income lost from
unemployment than in previous cycles. Moreover, because of the rise in
labor force participation by married women, a higher proportion of the
unemployed belong to families in which at least one person is still working.
For these reasons, real wages may not rise any less than they did at comparable stages of previous recoveries, in spite of the high level of the unemployment rate.
Nominal wage rate changes depend in part on the actual rate of price
increases in the recent past and on the rate of inflation anticipated for the
near future. If the rate of inflation had been approximately stable for a period
of years, and if this were expected to continue, it would not be difficult to
forecast the inflation component of nominal wage increases. We have, however, experienced several years of very high and unstable rates of inflation,
and we lack good estimates of how the greater variability in inflation rates
will be reflected in wage bargains. If, for example, a random burst of inflation occurs just prior to a wage settlement, it may have a significant effect
on the size of the wage increase negotiated. We estimate, however, that with
a forecasted 6 percent increase in the consumer price index (CPI) the rate
of increase in nominal wages will be 8-9 percent from 1975 to 1976, about
the same as the rise in compensation per hour in the private sector.
Wages for most private sector jobs are not determined by a formal collective bargaining process, but are rather the result of informal wage determination that is influenced, but not exclusively determined, by the competitive forces operating in labor markets. It is widely believed that major collective bargaining settlements have demonstration effects on wages throughout
the economy. For instance, the wide publicity they receive may influence the
wage and price expectations of other workers, and these workers will attempt
to maintain their relative position in the wage structure. Money pro-
32
visions of collective bargaining agreements may also be formally or informally extended to nonunionized workers in the same plant or industry.
Thus the forecasted increase in nominal wages could be upset if substantially
higher wage settlements were received by workers in large unions. For these
reasons it is important to examine the collective bargaining situation in 1976.
About one-fourth of all civilian employees are members of labor unions,
and about 10 million union members are under major collective bargaining
agreements (those covering 1,000 or more workers). About four-fifths of
these contracts consist of 2- or 3-year agreements which are heavily frontloaded, that is, contracts in which first-year increases are considerably larger
than those scheduled in the later years of the contract. Nearly 4J/2 million
workers, or about 5 percent of all employees, are under a major contract
that expires or is scheduled for reopening in 1976 (Table 2), while only 2%
million workers negotiated new contracts in 1975. Hence a significant proportion of the 10 million workers under major collective bargaining agreements will be receiving first-year increases in 1976. Last year, first-year increases of slightly more than 10 percent were received by more than onefourth of the workers under major agreements, and deferred increases
averaged 5 percent for the remaining 72 percent. Cost-of-living adjustments
(COLA) are not included in this comparison. If the new collective bargaining agreements for 1976 are similar to those of 1975, on balance 1% million
workers would thus obtain wage increases about 5 percentage points higher
TABLE 2.—Calendar of major private nonfarm collective bargaining activity, 1976
Contract expirations
Principal industry
Month
All years
.
1976: Total
. _ .
.
Scheduled wage
reopenings
_
January
February
March
April
May
June
Apparel
Apparel- services
Trucking
Construction' rubber
Construction; apparei
Electrical equipment* food
July
August
September
October
November .
December
Electrical equipment
Food (meat packing)
Motor vehicle and farm equipment.
Food stores
Services
Electrical equipment; food stores..
1977 and beyond
Year unknown or in negotiation *
Number
Workers
covered
(thousands)
2,274
10, 186
88
300
861
4,203
62
180
34
34
74
133
169
119
153
91
669
413
593
543
5
6
5
7
11
12
24
18
15
23
21
34
73
47
65
40
38
35
221
109
1,057
106
108
138
4
3
2
4
2
1
20
8
3
6
4
2
1,118
5,154
26
120
295
828
Number
Workers
covered
(thousands)
'
i Bargaining units for which necessary information was not available include 193 agreements which expired prior to
Oct. 1,1975 (when these data were tabulated) covering 556,000 workers, and 102 contracts which expired between October
1 and December 31,1975, covering 272,000 workers.
Note.—Major agreements are those affecting 1,000 or more workers.
Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
33
than those they received in 1975. In the course of 1976 this alone would add
about seven-eighths of a percentage point to the 8-81/3 percent average
increases received by the 10 million workers under major collective bargaining agreements during 1975, but the effect would be only about half as large
year over year.
A detailed tabulation of the deferred wage increases (excluding COLA)
scheduled for the 5 5/2 million workers in the second and third year of their
contracts shows an average increase of 5.4 percent during 1976, almost the
same as the 5.1 percent for such agreements in 1975. Escalator or cost-ofliving clauses last year added approximately 2 percent to the base wages of all
workers under major collective bargaining agreements. If the CPI rises by
approximately 6 percent from December 1975 to December 1976, the addition to wages from cost-of-living adjustments in 1976 should be slightly
lower than in 1975 because of somewhat lower inflation.
Assuming that there is a 6 percent increase in the CPI and that first-year
settlements will be similar to those negotiated in 1975, the 10 million workers
under major collective bargaining agreements will therefore receive wage
increases of approximately 8/2 to 9 percent from 1975 to 1976. Wage rate
gains for the nonunionized workers are more sensitive to the business cycle
and likely to be slightly less than those of union workers because of the
continued high level of unemployment. Thus we do not expect wage
increases for workers covered by major collective bargaining contracts to
upset our overall wage forecast.
The translation of wage rate changes to changes in compensation per hour
for all private employees requires an analysis of interindustry shifts of employment and of shifts between wage and salary workers in the composition
of employment as well as the addition of fringe benefits. Our analysis indicates that these factors are likely to be largely offsetting this year and hence
that increases in employee compensation per hour from 1975 to 1976 should
average 8—9 percent in the private sector.
FOOD PRICES
Food prices are the most visible and best publicized of all the components
of the CPI. For this reason they may be especially important in determining
the wage demands of labor and the inflationary expectations of all consumers.
Predicting price changes, however, is even more hazardous for food than for
most other goods because of the inelastic demand and supply functions for
agricultural products, and the possibility of large weather-induced shifts in
supply.
The current outlook on the supply side is for increased production of meat
and dairy products in 1976. There is evidence of larger placements of cattle
on feed for fattening and of increased hog farrowing in early 1976. These
developments should yield more fattened beef in the first half of 1976 and
more pork by the second half. Milk production is beginning to show year-toyear increases. The supply of most vegetables for processing was up this past
34
fall. Although dry weather during the seeding period in parts of the winter
wheat area has reduced the chances for a 1976 wheat harvest larger than that
of 1975, the size of 1976 crops is impossible to forecast accurately at this time.
The already evident increased supplies and lower prices for fertilizers should
help 1976 crop yields compared to 1975.
The demand for food should rise as a result of economic recovery in
the United States and abroad. Because the demand for most foods is relatively
insensitive to changes in income, however, the demand for food should increase substantially less than that for most other goods.
Futures market prices tend to reflect all the information available on supply and demand to date. In early 1976 futures prices for agricultural products implied that wholesale commodity prices were expected to be little
changed through mid-1976. Futures prices can, of course, change rapidly as
economic conditions and expectations about future conditions change. In
addition, the prices of processing and marketing services are not captured
in futures prices. The cost of these services will probably increase more
nearly in line with the general rate of inflation. On the whole, in contrast
to the past 3 years, food prices are not likely to add to inflationary pressures
during the first half of 1976. The same will be true of energy prices, as was
already pointed out in the discussion of energy policy. These favorable developments should help prevent a rise in the expected rate of general price
inflation above the 6 percent level in 1976.
WILL MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH BE APPROPRIATE?
Another question about the forecast is the amount of money needed to
support the expected growth in nominal GNP. This question has been
widely aired in the quarterly discussions of monetary policy instituted by
the Congress last year. Some have wondered if monetary growth within
the Federal Reserve's announced tolerance range would be adequate to
support a sustained recovery, even if inflation moderates as expected.
In May 1975 the Federal Reserve announced explicit 1-year ranges of
tolerance for the growth rates of the monetary aggregates: MI, M2, M3,
and the bank credit proxy. MI is the narrowly defined money supply, currency plus demand deposits. M 2 additionally includes commercial bank time
and savings deposits other than large negotiable certificates of deposit. M3
is a still broader measure obtained by adding time and savings deposits held
at nonbank thrift institutions to M2. Finally, the bank credit proxy is a
measure of member bank loans and investments. The present base for the
1-year growth rates is the average level of the aggregates for the third
quarter of 1975; hence the period for which the ranges now apply extends
to the third quarter of 1976. The range of growth rates for MI is currently
5-71/2 percent; for M2 it is 7/2-10/2 percent; for M3, 9-12 percent; and for
the bank credit proxy, 6-9 percent. Neither the bases nor the ranges are
immutable. Both have been changed in the past, and the Federal Reserve
35
has emphasized that it will change them in the future if circumstances
require.
The concept of the demand for money provides a useful analytic framework for examining the adequacy of these money growth rates, since it
supplies an important link between money on the one hand, and income
and expenditures on the other. There has been a great deal of discussion of
which monetary aggregate should be used to measure the demand for money.
The consensus seems to be that either MI or M 2 will do, but Mt has generally been the preferred definition.
Much of the theory and most of the postwar evidence on the demand for
money have been couched in terms of M T . However, there is some recent
evidence, although still quite tentative, that the demand for M! may have
shifted down for given levels of income and interest rates. Hence it is possible that the way in which money was related to income and interest rates
in the past will not hold in the future. However, some of the reasons given
below why the demand for Mx may have shifted down can provide clues to
how it will behave in the future. It is therefore still useful to focus on MI
growth, although it must be recognized that a fuller analysis of monetary
policy should include some reference to the broader aggregates like M2 and
M3.
The question about what is an appropriate expansion of the money supply
can be expressed in terms of velocity growth. The growth rate of nominal
GNP is the sum of the growth rates of the money stock and velocity. Consequently, if we take the price path as given, the appropriateness of various
monetary growth paths in achieving various real growth objectives depends
on the growth in velocity. The question then is whether the velocity growth
implied by the forecast is consistent with what the past behavior of velocity
would predict.
A large body of evidence has pointed to the stability of the long-run
demand function for money, on which the ability to predict movements in
velocity from cycle to cycle depends. However, the evidence that the function is stable in the short run is much less clear cut. Considerable controversy
still surrounds the behavior of money demand in the short run, and velocity
movements do exhibit considerable variation over short periods of time.
The figures in Table 3 illustrate this distinction. The second column
shows the average rates of growth of velocity from peak to peak in each of
the five previous postwar business cycles. The differences in the average rates
of growth of velocity over the various cycles are consistent with a stable longrun money-demand function. The successive declines in the average from
cycle to cycle do not reflect autonomous secular declines, but result rather
from either lower real income growth or lower interest rate growth, as one
would expect from estimates of the long-run demand function for money.
The shorter-run movements in velocity within the cycle are less
predictable. Average rates of velocity growth during each of the 2 successive years following a business cycle trough are shown in the first column of
36
Table 3. The changes in velocity within cycles are less systematically related
to income and interest rate changes. On the other hand, some of the variations in velocity movements within cycles are consistent with lags or delays
in the adjustment of actual money balances to their desired level. Thus
velocity grows rapidly when income grows rapidly or money growth slows
abruptly, while its rate of advance is more moderate when changes in income
and money growth are smaller.
Nevertheless such explanations do not account for all of the observed
short-term variations in velocity, and the unexplained variation makes it
difficult to predict short-term movements with a high degree of reliability.
It is therefore not easy to interpret the rapid rate of velocity growth in the
last 2 quarters of 1975, when MI velocity grew by annual rates of 12.4 and
9.6 percent respectively. Only in the comparable stage of the recovery from
the 1949 recession, a period which includes the beginning of the Korean war,
did velocity expand more rapidly.
The important question is whether these recent high rates of growth can
be taken to mean that velocity will grow faster on average in the future than
it has in the past. One answer is that they are random events that are unlikely
to repeat themselves in the near future, but such an interpretation doubtless
goes too far. Part of the rapid increase in velocity may derive from the incomplete adjustment of money balances to the sharp acceleration in income in
the second half of 1975. However, that explanation would suggest slower
growth of velocity in the future as money balances are adjusted to the higher
rate of income growth.
TABLE 3.—Growth rates of velocity of money, real gross national product, and interest rates,
selected periods, 1948IV-1973 IV
[Percent change; annual rate]
Period
Growth
rate of
velocity
after
cyclical
trough 1
Peak-to- peak growth rate
Complete cycle, peak to peak
1
Velocity
of money
(Mi)
Real
GNP
3-month
Treasury
bill rate 2
1949 IV to 1950 IV_
1950 IV to 1951 IV
14.2
5.2
1948 IV to 1953 II
4.3
5.3
16.4
1954 III to 1955 III
1955 III to 1956 III
6.8
3.7
1953 II to 1957 III
3.1
2.2
11.0
195811 to 1959 II.
195911 to 196011 -
6.6
4.1
1957 I I I to 1960 II.
3.0
2.7
10.9
1961 1 to 1962 \
1962 1 to 19631
5.8
3.1
1960 11 to 1969 IV
2.7
4.1
5.7
1970 IV to 1971 IV 3
1971 IV to 1972 IV.
2.8
3.7
1969 IV to 1973 IV s. .
2.4
3.6
3.4
.
.
i Except as noted, quarters designated as cyclical trough or cyclical peak by National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) were used in computing growth rates for velocity of money and real GNP. Specific peaks of the Treasury bill
rate were used in computing its growth rates. These peaks are 1949 II, 1953 II, 1957 III, 1959 IV, 1969 IV, and 1973 III.
z Market yield.
J Trough and peak quarters of real GNP (1970 IV and 1973 IV, respectively) used as NBER has not designated these
quarters as cyclical trough or peak quarters.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, Department of the Treasury,
Council of Economic Advisers, and National Bureau of Economic Research.
37
Another explanation for the recent rapid increases in velocity is that
the demand for MI has shifted down. This interpretation is consistent
with recent financial innovations which may have increased the efficiency
of the payments mechanism and made savings deposits and other nearmonies closer substitutes for demand deposits. Those innovations include
telephonic transfers from savings to checking accounts; NOW accounts,
which are essentially savings accounts on which c'checks" can be drawn; the
ability of individuals to write "checks" on some so-called money market
mutual funds; electronic funds-transfer schemes; and allowing State and
local governments and corporations, in November of 1974 and 1975 respectively, to hold savings deposits at member banks.
Another reason advanced for a shift down in the demand for MI is the
"shock" of the extremely high interest rates in late 1973 and 1974. Because
high interest rates made asset holders more aware of the costs of holding idle
balances and of the benefits of managing cash more efficiently, they may have
permanently reduced the demand for money for given levels of interest
rates and income.
These are all plausible explanations for a downward shift in the demand
for money. If the demand for money has been reduced, either by technological
factors or by changes in the attitudes of asset holders, the result will be to
reduce the rate of increase in the money stock that is consistent with
any given path of GNP over the coming year. Nevertheless the conclusion
that MI demand has shifted down should be treated with some caution. Past
experience indicates that it is very difficult to identify shifts in the demand
for money soon after they are reputed to have begun. At this point, conclusive evidence of a shift is still lacking. Moreover, if the shift is a once-and-forall shift in the level of Ma demanded, all that one can say with certainty is
that velocity growth will be higher during the transition period. The growth
of velocity will not be permanently increased unless the interest and income
elasticities of the demand for money are affected, and there is no evidence so
far on this point. Perhaps the most that can be said is that past experience
suggests a decline in the growth of velocity as the recovery proceeds, though
the growth rate may remain for a while at a higher level than before.
Our forecasts of nominal GNP and a growth rate for MI of 6*4 percent
(the midpoint of the Federal Reserve's range for MI) imply increases in
velocity that are consistent with this conjecture. The implied growth in
velocity for the 4 quarters ending with the second quarter of 1976 is 6.9
percent; for the year following it is 5.7 percent.
These rates show a decline in velocity growth in the second 4 quarters
which is consistent with the past intracyclical behavior of velocity. The
decline is smaller than in previous recoveries, but it can be partly
explained by the fact that the forecasted deceleration in nominal income is
smaller than the decelerations in income during comparable stages of
previous recoveries. On the other hand, the average rates of growth in
38
velocity in each of the 4 quarters are significantly higher than past relationships would have led one to predict.
Whether or not one concludes that this cycle has brought structural changes
in the demand for money in relation to changes in activity levels is clearly
crucial in determining the appropriate rate of increase in the money stock.
Even if a structural change has occurred, the increase in velocity is unlikely to
continue at recent rates, and monetary policy needs to take account of this
slowing.
This does not mean that the current ranges of tolerance are inappropriate.
It is not possible to say with any assurance what growth rates of money are
necessary to allow real GNP to grow by 6-6/2 percent from 1975 to 1976.
Setting an upper limit on the growth rate, however, should reduce the prospects for a rekindling of inflation. At the same time, the lower limit provides
assurance of continued growth in the money supply if the recovery should
turn out to be much weaker than expected. In that event it would be very
important for money supply growth to be maintained so that interest rates
could fall and shore up the recovery. However, interest rates would be unlikely to fall if the lower-than-expected output growth were due to price
acceleration.
Hence the ranges of tolerance are useful in both directions. On the one
hand they dampen inflationary expectations; on the other they indicate a
firm commitment to lend support to the recovery and to make it more durable. This should contribute greatly to more confident and better-informed
decision making by the private sector. Clearly, however, the targets must be
administered with flexibility, as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board
has pointed out on several occasions.
WILL CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS DECADE BE MET?
Apart from the risks to the durability of the recovery described in the preceding sections, there is the possibility that the structure of final demand may
remain too consumption-oriented and business fixed investment too weak to
permit adequate economic performance during the remainder of the seventies. Capacity bottlenecks were encountered in a number of basic commodities in 1972 and 1973, giving rise to concern that a shortage of capacity may
materialize well before we reach an acceptably low level of unemployment.
Such a shortage could intensify inflationary pressures in the later stages of
recovery, retard long-term economic growth, and make the achievement of
environmental and energy goals more difficult.
At first sight the concern with shortages appears misdirected. In an
economy in which the prices of all inputs and outputs and the composition
of final demand are free to adjust, there is no reason to expect a chronic
shortage of any type of productive facility. To be sure, temporary bottlenecks
may occur in a dynamic economy because future demands cannot be anticipated perfectly and because there are lags in the adjustment process.
39
But in time such bottlenecks would be eliminated, as investment shifted
toward the most profitable areas of resource application.
In what sense, then, can there be a valid concern with inadequate capital
formation? One way of looking at the capital formation issue is to ask
whether the investment spending expected under current conditions is
likely to be adequate for the attainment of certain longer-term economic
and social objectives, such as full employment, greater energy independence,
and a cleaner environment.
Even before the 1974-75 recession idled large amounts of productive
capacity, investment incentives may have been reduced by some of the
factors enumerated below. Several of these factors are related to inflation,
and if they recur or persist they may inhibit investment in the present
recovery.
1. The bef ore-tax rate of return that business requires to undertake new
investments has been driven up by several forces, while actual rates of
return, at least on past investments, have lagged behind. Risk premiums have risen to reflect the increased amplitude of macroeconomic
disturbances and the greater instability of relative factor and product
prices in the last few years. Experiments with wage-price controls have
lessened the incentives to invest. Moreover, compliance with changing
environmental and safety regulations requires increased investment,
creates some uncertainty, and adds to the cost of production. At the
same time, despite changes in the corporate tax laws, general price
inflation has raised corporate taxes more than in proportion to the
bef ore-tax return on fixed capital because inventory profits have boosted
the tax base and because the real value of historical-cost depreciation
allowances has declined.
2. The increase in debt-equity ratios during recent years has made business
more vulnerable to the vicissitudes of the credit market and to unanticipated changes in the rates of inflation and profits. The tax treatment of interest payments as a deductible business expense makes debt
financing particularly attractive when inflation premiums are included
in interest rates. Nonetheless, debt-equity ratios have probably reached
higher levels than firms would like to maintain under present conditions. While unanticipated increases in the rate of inflation have
lowered the real cost of amortizing old debt, this gain has not been
reflected in a higher valuation of corporate equities in periods of
rising inflation. The resulting unfavorable structure of business liabilities
may have created some structural financing problems, and it may have
increased default risks, the costs of financing, and the cutoff rate of
return on new projects.
3. Fiscal policies may have been biased against private investment. In
periods like 1973, when the economy was already approaching its
capacity limits, government transfer payments continued to increase
rapidly. Then, in periods of slack, changes in Federal tax and expendi-
40
ture policies have emphasized the stimulation of consumption rather
than investment. A policy mix that relies more on monetary stimulus
than on the types of fiscal stimuli which have predominated in the past
may be expected to alter the composition of output in favor of private
investment. In recent cycles, however, investment was the last sector to
be stimulated by expansionary fiscal policies, and the first to suffer when
these policies were maintained too long and led to either more inflation
or to offsetting monetary restraint. Cyclical recoveries of investment
may therefore have been incomplete, with cumulative effects on the size
of the capital stock.
4. The long-term savings incentives of persons may have been reduced
through government policies favoring consumptibn. The scope of government transfer programs and the level of social insurance benefits
have increased rapidly in recent years. This development may eventually encourage less reliance on personal savings to protect a future
standard of living. Moreover, although firm evidence is not available,
incentives to save may also have been reduced because Federal interest
rate controls on many types of savings have become more restrictive as
a result of inflation and because nominal interest receipts are fully
taxed without allowing for inflation. On the other hand, individuals
have increased their saving rate in reaction to the diminution of the
real value of their financial assets and the greater insecurity about future
living standards that the high rates of inflation and unemployment of
the past few years have caused. Thus substitution effects which discourage saving may not begin to dominate the actual savings behavior
of persons until the income and wealth effects stemming from the most
recent inflation and recession have been reduced much further.
AN ESTIMATE OF CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS
The actual business fixed investment that is likely to be forthcoming
during the remainder of this decade under the existing structure of tax laws
and economic incentives is difficult to forecast. If we had a perfect long-term
forecast, we could directly assess the adequacy of the expected investment,
provided the investment required to meet certain objectives by a given date
could be deduced with a high degree of reliability from these objectives.
Since this is not possible, a much more modest approach will be followed in
assessing the capital formation issue. This approach involves estimating the
capital stock that may be needed to achieve certain goals and then comparing
the implied investment requirements with recent trends in the share of
investment to GNP. Given the large number of conditions and qualifications
that must be attached to any statistical estimate of future input requirements,
no such exercise can be conclusive. If this exercise suggests that increased rates
of capital formation are desirable, what is called for is not increased Government controls or directives, but in all likelihood a shift in the monetary-
41
fiscal policy mix and reconsideration of the existing tax laws and incentive
structures.
To throw some light on the question of capital adequacy, which has been
widely debated during the past year, the Council of Economic Advisers
commissioned the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce to conduct a study of the capital that would be required to achieve
a real output level presumed to be consistent with approximately full employment in 1980.* The level of real GNP selected for that year was $1,575
billion in 1972 dollars ($1,078 billion in 1958 dollars). The GNP target
implies an average annual growth rate of about 6 percent in real GNP and
4 percent in output per employee in the private sector from 1975 to 1980,
a condition which is estimated to move the unemployment rate below 5
percent by the end of the decade. Figures for industry outputs compatible
with the specified level of GNP were derived by the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
of the Department of Labor. They were generally at the 80-industry level of
input-output aggregation.
The capital stock necessary to produce the output levels specified for 1980
is assumed to include facilities to meet certain environmental standards
currently in effect, and to allow the greater degree of energy independence
which has been advocated by the Federal Government. Estimates were
prepared of the investment in pollution control facilities necessary to meet
the requirements of the Clean Air Amendments of 1970 and the Federal
Pollution Act Amendments of 1972. Furthermore, an attempt was made to
estimate the additional investment required in the mining of coal, crude
petroleum, and natural gas, and in electric utilities using fuels other than oil
and gas, to prevent the 1980 share of imported crude and refined petroleum
products from exceeding its 1973-74 level of 36 percent of total domestic consumption (in barrels per day). This percentage would otherwise rise to
47 percent under the "business as usual" scenario in the Project Independence Report of the Federal Energy Administration. All of these estimates may
be subject to errors which could bias in either direction the estimate of total
investment requirements.
Many assumptions must be made before gross investment requirements
can be arrived at from the output targets. Capital services need not normally
be used in fixed proportions with other factors of production to obtain a
given level of output, first because there are possibilities for factor substitution over time, and then because there are distinct trends in factor proportions associated with changes in technology within particular industries,
which may or may not continue. To narrow the range of possible estimates
for 1980, links between industry outputs and capital stocks were established
by assuming either that the adjusted capital-output ratios remain constant at
* The full study is available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The basic estimates were developed in the summer and fall of 1975 and do not reflect the benchmark
revisions of the national income accounts and the economic assumptions and projections published in the 1977 budget. The differences, however, are relatively small.
42
their 1970 levels or that observed trend rates of growth or decline in such
ratios persist. The extrapolations are based on annual capital-output ratios
available for 1963 and for each year from 1967 through 1970, which are
adjusted to normal operating conditions by dividing actual industry output
by the ratio of the actual utilization rate to the preferred utilization rate. If
the adjusted capital-output ratios have shown a consistent tendency to grow
or to decline over this period, the annual trend rates of change estimated
from either 1963 or 1967 were generally continued from 1970 to 1980.*
Finally, it is necessary to specify a discard pattern (i.e., a pattern of retirements and other deletions from the capital stock) to estimate the amount of
gross investment that would produce the net additions to the capital stock
obtained in the previous step. For those industries whose 1970 capacity
utilization rate was 100 percent, discards are assumed to grow at the same rate
as the adjusted capital stock from 1970 to 1980. In industries whose capacity
was not fully utilized, discards are assumed to grow faster, on the assumption that more obsolete capacity will be eliminated through replacement
investment before full capacity operations are approached by all industries simultaneously in 1980. The discard rate is also assumed to rise in gas
utilities (including gas pipelines) as a result of rapid shifts in the location
of producing wells.
Since so many specifications and data adjustments are necessary to obtain
numerical estimates of capital requirements, these estimates are not definitive. Their usefulness depends on the descriptive realism of the assumptions
employed in deriving them. These include the degree of labor force utilization and the composition of output and final demand in 1980, as well as the
links from specified output targets to capital "requirements" and the
link from "required" capital to investment. The data on capital stocks and
discards by industry are weak. Moreover a number of unspecified economic
assumptions have to be made to ensure that the implied accumulation process
is consistent with a movement toward economic equilibrium and stable real
rates of return.
The results are highly sensitive to changes in the output mix—for instance,
between manufacturing and other more capital-intensive sectors such as agriculture, mining, transportation, communication, and utilities. The direct
and indirect capital requirement per dollar of output from petroleum and
natural gas mining, for example, is about four times as high as the corresponding coefficient for manufacturing. Estimates of capital requirements
are less sensitive to shifts between broad end-use categories like consumption and business fixed investment than to shifts between particular output
sectors, but the composition of final demand still matters. For instance, the
capital required per dollar of final demand is 22 percent greater for personal
consumption than for private fixed investment.
*One of the most significant exceptions is the electric utilities industry, in which
the past trend of rising capital-output ratios was not projected to continue in the
absence of "Project Independence" objectives.
43
Subject to all these qualifications, certain conclusions can be drawn from
the estimates reported in Table 4. The table shows that a share of business
fixed investment in GNP as low as 9.9 percent in 1971-80 is estimated to be
compatible with the output level specified for 1980, if capital-output ratios
remain at their 1970 level and the energy and pollution abatement goals
previously specified are left out of account. Hence, without the additional
requirements attributable to changing technology and to government policies, the share of business fixed investment in GNP could actually be lower
than the 10.4 percent that prevailed during the period from 1965 through
1970. This result is obtained in spite of a slight acceleration in the actual
and projected annual rates of discards (from around 4.6 percent of the
capital stock in 1965-70 to 4.8 percent in 1972-74 and 4.9 percent in 1980),
because it is estimated that the changing industrial composition of GNP
reduces the cumulative investment required.
However, the ratio of required investment to GNP would be lifted from
9.9 to 11.4 percent in 1971-80, and cumulative investment would have to
rise 15 percent more than previously estimated, if the legal, technological,
and energy-related factors that raise investment requirements in the current
decade are to be allowed for. Together these additional requirements add
$190 billion in 1972 dollars to the cumulative investment total for the decade
1971-80.
TABLE 4.—Share of business fixed investment in gross national product: historical data and
projected requirement, selected periods, 1965-80
1965-70
Item
1971-74
1975-80
1971-80
Billions of 1972 dollars
Cumulative gross national product (GNP):
Actual
Projected
5, 999. 3
Cumulative business fixed investment:
Actual
Projected capital-output (c/o) ratios
Fixed 1970 c/o ratios:
Actual law2
Pre-1970 Iaw2 _
623.4
4, 674. 5
1
8, 254. 6
12,929.1
3 986. 6
1,473.4
s 844. 5
3796.6
1,331.3
1,283.4
486.8
Percent
Business fixed investment as percent of GNP:
Actual
Projected c/o ratios
Fixed 1970 c/o ratios:
Actual law 2
Pre-1970 law 2
10.4
10.4
12.0
11.4
10.2
10.3
9.7
9.9
1
Derived from GNP projections in 1958 dollars provided by the Department of Labor, Division of Economic Growth.
"Actual Law" contains pollution control expenditures pursuant to the 1970 Clean Air Amendments and to the 1972
Federal Water Pollution Act Amendments, while "Pre-1970 Law" does not contain these expenditures.
3
Derived by subtracting actual investment in 1971-74 from the estimate of investment required during 1971-80.
2
Note.—The 1965-74 data in this table have not been revised to the new benchmark data used elsewhere in this Report
since the projections were made before the new data were available. However, using the new data, business fixed investment as percent of GNP would have been the same for 1965-70 as shown in the table (10.4 percent) and slightly lower for
1971-74 (10.2 percent instead of 10.4 percent).
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Division of Economic
Growth).
44
TABLE 5.—Factors affecting
the cumulative total business fixed investment required from 1971
through 1980, by major industries
[Billions of 1972 dollars]
Factor
Fixed 1970 capitaloutput (c/o) ratios, pollution
control requirements limited to
pre-1970 law
Add for actual Pollution Control
Laws passed in
1970 and 1972
Add for industries
with c/o ratios increasing for reasons other than
the achievement
of greater energy
independence
Add for industries
with decreasing
c/o ratios
Add for additional
capital required
for greater energy
independence
Add for increase in
pollution control
investment induced by additional investment
in energy
Total business fixed
investment
required
Total
1,283.4
Agriculture,
forestry,
and
fisheries
68.5
47.8
118.2
10.3
-36.0
-.0
57.9
2.0
1, 473. 4
.0
.0
78.8
Electric,
Mining
48.5
Con-
Manu-
struction
fac-
29.5
turing
Transportation
munication
292.2
134.7
101.1
209. 5
173.8
225.7
14.2
.3
1.8
Com-
gas, water, and
Services2 Others
sanitary
services *
.9
.5
29.5
.6
.0
4.2
.0
35.3
5.3
.4
.4
-21.8
-.0
-.0
-.0
4-1.0
-.0
-.0
49.0
.4
81.2
-13.2
62.4
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
8.9
.0
.0
.0
5.2
.0
.0
1.3
.0
.0
344.0
140.6
101.4
233.3
236.5
227.5
30.0
1
Includes production by both public and private enterprises.
2
Consists of hotels and lodging places, personal and repair services, business services, automobile repair and services,
amusements and medical, educational services and nonprofit organizations.
3
Consists of wholesale and retail trade and finance, insurance and real estate.
*Increase in discard rate in gas utilities due to energy considerations would produce this decline unless offset by $1.0
billion higher investment required for greater energy independence.
fi Although the outputs and capital-output ratios of petroleum refining and related industries are not assumed to change
in the process of achieving greater energy independence, the substitution of lower-grade domestic crude for higher-grade
imported crude causes some additional pollution control expenditures in petroleum refining.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
As shown in Table 5, there are three major reasons for the need to
devote an increased share of GNP to fixed investment:
1. Investment in pollution abatement equipment as a consequence of
legislation relating to "clean air" and "clean water" is estimated to add
about $48 billion (1972 dollars) to the base level 1971-80 investment
total. This base level, which is estimated on the assumption of fixed
capital-output ratios in all industries, is identified as "pre-1970 law"
in Table 4. Less than half of this additional requirement is believed to
have been met by 1975.
45
597-578 O - 76 - 4
2. Changing technology in selected industries, such as agriculture, ferrous
mining and nonferrous metals manufacturing, communication equipment manufacturing, transportation, business services, and auto repair,
in all of which capital-output ratios have been increasing, is estimated
to add about $118 billion to the cumulative investment required from
1971 to 1980, while industries with declining capital-output ratios subtract about $36 billion.
3. To meet the goal of greater energy independence, increased investment
in petroleum mining, electric utilities, and other energy-related industries is required. This is estimated to add about $58 billion to the 197180 investment total. Another $2 billion is required for the induced increase in pollution control expenditures by energy-producing or processing industries. If the decline in the capital-output ratio of petroleum
mining continues, the cumulative investment could be $21.8 billion
less. Any further decline in capital-output ratios in petroleum mining,
however, would be inconsistent with the assumption of increased
domestic energy output.
INFERENCES
Although these estimates are by no means definitive, they do allow
some cautious inferences. Because the ratio of business fixed investment to
GNP in 1971-74 continued at the 10.4 percent level that prevailed from
1965 to 1970, the business fixed investment to GNP ratio may have to average
12 percent from 1975 to 1980 to meet the capital requirements projected for
1980. Since investment is expected to amount to less than 10 percent of GNP
in 1975-76, these estimates suggest that investment ratios even higher than
12 percent may be necessary in the next 4 years to put enough capital in
place by the end of 1980 to meet the goals previously stipulated.
If ratios of fixed investment to GNP substantially in excess of 10 percent
are unattainable, full employment cannot be achieved by 1980 at capitaloutput ratios and productivity growth rates as high as those projected with
the assumption that the environmental and energy goals are to be met.
Whether full employment can be achieved at all by 1980 under these conditions depends first, of course, on the reliability of the previous estimates,
and then on the ease of input substitution and on the flexibility of relative
factor prices. If the estimated capital requirements are not met, the 1980
output level could be lower than projected, owing to lower productivity or
lower employment, or both. Alternatively, goals concerning pollution control
and energy independence might have to be scaled down. Either of these
possibilities seems far less desirable than providing incentives to raise the
share of investment in GNP.
To achieve this goal, increased savings incentives may have to supplement increased investment incentives once the economy's resources are utilized more fully. Whether an increased saving rate may be required, however,
depends not only on the potential demands for business investment but
also on the demands for residential construction and net foreign investment.
46
Furthermore there may be no need to maintain higher business fixed investment to GNP ratios than in previous periods of high employment beyond
1980, because the required additions to capacity are bound to decline sharply
if output growth falls to its long-term sustainable level and no new policy
initiatives are developed that would require extra investments in areas such
as energy, safety, or the environment beyond 1980.
At the present time macroeconomic policies that continue to stimulate
the economy to a fuller utilization of its resources will also encourage investment. But, for reasons indicated above, a steady and sustained expansion
will provide a far better economic climate for investment than a path of
excessive expansion followed by another cycle of inflation and recession.
Moreover a policy mix that relies less on consumption-oriented fiscal expansion and more on monetary stimulus would be more conducive to high rates
of private investment. During the initial phases of the recovery a slower rate
of increase in Federal outlays and a reduction in the budget deficit would
permit a more expansionary monetary policy to be carried out with less risk
of inflationary pressures. Such a policy mix would tend to shift the composition of output toward investment. If Government deficits do not decline
rapidly enough as the recovery proceeds, the savings necessary to ensure a
satisfactory rate of private investment may be preempted, and the expansion
could stall some time before employment returns to an acceptable level. The
President's program of reducing the growth in Federal outlays in this and in
coming years is designed, among its other goals, to avoid such an impasse.
47
CHAPTER 2
Economic Policy and Developments in 1975
D
URING THE FIRST PART OF 1975 the economy moved rapidly
through the final stages of the most severe recession of the postwar
period. Real gross national product (GNP) fell at an annual rate of 9.2
percent in the first quarter and then began to increase (Table 6). In addition, the rate of inflation fell rapidly in the first half of the year from the
high rates of 1974.
Economic policy shifted early in the year to counter the decline in
output. The President proposed a $16-billion tax reduction in the State of
the Union message in January and the Congress enacted a $21-billion net reduction in March. Because of these tax cuts, and associated one-time social
security payments, real disposable personal income rose sharply in the second
quarter. At the same time, the monetary aggregates expanded rapidly as
the Federal Reserve accommodated the temporary buildup in the public's
holdings of currency and bank deposits caused by the tax cuts and social
security payments.
GNP rose sharply in the second half of the year; and by the end of the
year the initial phase of a recovery was clearly evident, although both
unemployment and inflation remained distressingly high.
Measured by the declines from peak to trough in real GNP and real disposable personal income (DPI), the 1974-75 recession was the most severe
of the postwar period. Real GNP fell 6.6 percent from its peak in the fourth
quarter of 1973 to its trough in the first quarter of 1975. Real DPI, cushioned
by increased transfer payments and other built-in stabilizers, fell 4.4 percent during the same period. The recession became more severe in the last
quarter of 1974 (Table 6). Real final sales decreased at an 8.6 percent
annual rate in the fourth quarter, as both personal consumption expenditures and fixed investment expenditures dropped sharply. Real GNP declined at an annual rate of 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter after a 2.3
percent annual rate of decline in the third quarter.
Changes in the level of economic activity during 1975 were dominated
by an exceptionally sharp inventory cycle. The large reduction in real final
sales in late 1974 produced a large and unexpected accumulation of inventories which were then liquidated in 1975. Real final sales, which had
declined since the end of 1973, stabilized in early 1975 and then rose steadily
48
TABLE 6.—Changes in gross national product in constant (1972) dollars, 1973—75
[Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates]
19 74
Component
1973
19751
1974
197 5
III
IV
1
-2.3
-7.5
-9.2
II
III
IVi
Percent change in 1972 dollars:
Total GNP
..
Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
.
Services
5.3
-1.8
4,5
8.7
3.4
4.2
-6.9
-2.1
Business fixed investment. . 12.4
Residential investment
-3.1
Government purchases
-.2
Federal purchases
-5.9
State and local purchases
3.5
-2.0
2.6
2.0
1.7
1.8
4.3
2.6
.3
-14.3
-23.1
-12.8
-41.9
-17.3
-42.0
-.5
4.3
-1.7
-4.1
-4.2
1.3
1.7
-11.8
-25.6 -18.1
.7
-39.8
-2.8
-2.9
-1.1
2.1
4.6
1.2
2.1
.9
-.8
1.2
-.8
2.4
-3.0
-9.2
-7.4
-.3
2.4
3.3
6.4
10.0
8.4
3.9
-14.4
4.8
-.3
-5.4
11.9
3.9
23.6
1.4
.5
-.7
56.0
6.1
11.3
5.4
3.5
8.1
5.0
.8
9.0
31.6
3.8
4.3
6.4
2.8
3.2
3.5
-.6
3.8
2.7
4.7
5.3
5.0
4.8
Addenda:
Final sales .
Domestic final sales
4.8
3.9
-1.2
-2.0
6.6
-8.3
-.5
-1.1
-1.4
-1.4
-17.8
-2.6
-8.6
-9.4
-2.0
Change in billions of 1972 dollars:
Inventory accumulation .
Net exports of goods and services
1
10.5
9.4
6.9
-.2
3.4
2.3
-26.6
4.1
-1.7
3.4
19.9
-1.4
1.0
.8
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
during the balance of the year. Accelerating inventory liquidation kept industrial production declining until April, when the Federal Reserve's index
bottomed out 12.5 percent below its level in September 1974. While nonfarm inventory decumulation continued through the year, the rate of liquidation slowed dramatically by the third quarter. As a result, production
rebounded sharply and in December the index of industrial production was
7.8 percent above its April low. The unemployment rate increased from 5.6
percent in the third quarter of 1974 to a peak of 8.7 percent in the second
quarter of 1975. By the fourth quarter it had fallen to 8.5 percent.
The rate of inflation was lower in 1975 than in 1974. As measured by the
consumer price index (CPI), inflation dropped from a 12.1 percent annual
rate during 1974 to a 7.3 percent rate during 1975. Two principal factors accounted for this improvement. First, the weakened state of demand and the
reduction of inventories put downward pressure on prices at the same time
that more moderate wage increases and gains in productivity were limiting
the rise in unit labor costs. Second, the waning influence of the explosion
of food and fuel prices in 1973 and 1974 also contributed to the moderation
of inflation. Although energy prices continued to rise in 1975, the increase
was much more moderate than it was following the 1973-74 Organization
of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil price increases. The upward pressure on food prices, which stemmed from heavy world demand
and the sharp reduction in the 1974 U.S. grain crop, also eased during 1975.
49
National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA)
Revision
The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce has
just completed revisions of the national income and product data for all
years after 1945. These revised data, which are described in the January
1976 issue of the Survey of Current Business, are used throughout this
Report. The new data are the result of a major benchmark revision of the
statistical data and the introduction of about 20 definitional changes which
improve the conceptual framework of the accounts. In addition,, the base
period for constant dollar GNP estimates has been advanced from 1958 to
1972. The most significant of the definitional changes are a new treatment
of depreciation, and the shift of mobile home purchases and purchases of
consumer durables by landlords from consumption to residential investment.
While it will be some time before many of the implications of these revisions are known, there are noticeable changes in some series. Nominal GNP
has been revised upward by amounts generally less than 1 percent. For 1974,
nominal GNP was revised to $1,406.9 billion, a revision of 0.7 percent. However, the revisions generally show more weakness in the economy in the
second and third quarters of 1974. Because of the new treatment of depreciation, capital consumption allowances have been significantly revised. For
example, the new estimate for 1974 is $134.0 billion compared to $119.5
billion on the old basis. Employee compensation and gross output in the corporate sector have been revised upward progressively since 1958 to reflect an
upward reappraisal of the importance of corporate activity in several sectors.
Thus, for 1974, employee compensation in the corporate sector is now estimated to be $582.4 billion compared to $524.1 billion on the old basis, and
gross corporate product is now $854.6 billion in 1974 compared to $770.1
billion on the old basis. Related to these revisions are decreases in corporate
profits, and in noncorporate sector employee compensation and gross output.
Because the increases in corporate employee compensation exceed the declines in the noncorporate sector, total employee compensation has been
revised significantly upward.
FISCAL POLICY
Fiscal policy was expansionary in 1975 compared to what it had been in
1973-74. (Unless otherwise stated, reference is made to calendar, rather
than fiscal, years throughout.) The growth in Federal expenditures, which
had accelerated in 1974, remained high through mid-1975. The 1975 tax
cuts added to the stimulus, with the result that the sharp rise in the fullemployment surplus from the end of 1972 to the third quarter of 1974 was
entirely reversed in 1975.
After passage of the Tax Reduction Act of 1975 in late March, an
$8-billion rebate of 1974 taxes was paid. At an annual rate this represented
a $32-billion tax reduction in the second quarter of 1975. From May 1, the
amount of individual income taxes withheld was $12 billion lower at an annual rate. This came about because tax liabilities were reduced through a
50
$30 credit for each taxpayer and each dependent claimed on tax returns,
and through increased standard deductions and low-income allowances.
The tax credit for purchasing a new principal residence and the earned
income credit will reduce Federal receipts by approximately $1 billion and
raise transfer payments by $1 billion in the first half of 1976, when these
credits are claimed on 1975 tax returns. An estimated 80 percent of the
earned income credit, which is given to certain workers who earned less than
$8,000 in 1975, will be in excess of any tax liability otherwise owed and will
thus be a transfer payment rather than a tax refund.
The 1975 Tax Reduction Act cut corporate tax liabilities by a gross
amount of $4*4 billion. The net reduction was only $25/2 billion, however,
because percentage depletion for oil and gas was curtailed and because
foreign tax credits and deferral of taxes on incomes earned abroad by certain U.S. corporations were limited. The largest of the corporate tax reductions, amounting to $2% billion in 1975, resulted from liberalization of the
investment tax credit. The rate of this tax credit was increased from 4 to 10
percent for utilities, and from 7 to 10 percent for all other businesses, on
equipment acquired after January 21, 1975, and placed in service before
January 1, 1977. The doubling of the surtax exemption from $25,000 to
$50,000 and the lowering of the regular corporate income tax rate on the
first $25,000 of taxable profits from 22 percent to 20 percent decreased 1975
liabilities by $1J/2 billion.
In all, the Tax Reduction Act of 1975 lowered receipts by around $42
billion at an annual rate in the second quarter of 1975, but most of this
drop was temporary. The tax cuts that remained in effect during the last
half of 1975 amounted to around $15 billion (annual rate) or 5 percent
of the total Federal receipts otherwise obtained. By comparison, the 1964 tax
cut that went into effect in 1964 and 1965 lowered Federal taxes by over 10
percent.
On a unified budget basis, the deficit in fiscal 1975 was $44 billion,
$9 billion larger than estimated in February 1975. Outlays in fiscal 1975
were $325 billion, $11 billion above the February estimate. Only a fourth
of the increase in outlays is attributable to departures from the legislative
program assumed in the February budget. Receipts were $281 billion,
$2 billion higher than projected, even though the Tax Reduction Act of 1975
reduced receipts in fiscal 1975 by $4 billion more than the budget proposed.
Most of the $6-billion difference is explained by higher individual income
tax receipts, since refunds of the 1974 tax liabilities were $1 billion less and
final settlements $3 billion more than had been anticipated.
FEDERAL EXPENDITURES
On a national income accounts (NIA) basis, Federal expenditures increased from $300 billion in 1974 to $357 billion in 1975, a rise of 19 percent
compared to the 13 percent increase the year before. Because the recently
released revisions of NIA data have altered the measured level and composition of Federal expenditures, precise comparisons of actual expenditures with
51
the expenditures projected in the 1976 budget are difficult. Nevertheless, if
the budget numbers are roughly adjusted to the new benchmark basis, a
comparison can be made. Table 7 shows that Federal expenditures rose
$10 billion more than was projected in February 1975, with defense purchases $3 billion, grants $4 billion, and transfer payments to persons over
$6 billion higher than projected.
Production and deliveries on defense orders outstanding accelerated, as
they have done repeatedly during previous recessions, because of the slack in
the suppliers' other business. As a result NIA expenditures rose more rapidly
than anticipated. In addition, defense purchases were raised by unexpectedly
large cost increases, attributable in part to the high inflation of recent years.
Nevertheless the share of defense purchases in total Federal expenditures
declined. Federal employee compensation, both civilian and military, was
not much higher than projected, since the proposal in the President's budget
to place a 5 percent cap on the October 1975 pay raise of Federal employees
was sustained by the Congress. Federal purchases other than compensation
were about $1% billion above the February estimates, even though energyrelated spending was $lj/a billion lower because domestic crude oil prices
were not decontrolled as expected.
Grants were $4 billion higher than estimated last February, even though
State and local governments did not receive the President's proposed $1^billion offset for increased energy costs. Higher public assistance payments,
TABLE 7.—Federal
Government receipts and expenditures, national income accounts
calendar years 197tf-7&
basis,
(Billions of dollars}
19 75
Receipt or expenditure category
Federal Government receipts
February
1975 budget
projections l
1974
..
..
Personal tax and nontax receipts
Corporate profits tax accruals
Indirect business tax and nontax accruals
Contributions for social insurance .
Federal Government expenditures
Purchases of goods and services
..
National defense
.. ....
......
Nondefense _
Transfer payments to persons
Transfer payments to foreigners
Grants-in-aid to State and local governments
Net interest paid
Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises
Less: Wage accruals less disbursements .
Surplus or deficit (—)
.
288.4
280.3
283 5
131.4
45 9
103.7
31 7
21.7
89.4
48.7
96.2
125 6
40 2
24 2
300 1
346 7
356 9
111.7
121.5
123.1
93.5
77.4
34.3
80.6
41.0
84.0
39.2
114.5
139.7
146.1
3.2
. .
Actual >
43.9
21.0
5.2
-11.7
5.3
50.0
23.2
7.0
.0
-66.4
3.0
54.2
23.5
6.8
.0
-73.4
i Data on a basis comparable to the new benchmark revisions have been estimated by adding to the budget data of
last February the changes in actual receipts and expenditures that resulted in 1974 and 1975 from the recent conceptual
revisions, calculating percentage changes for the conceptually revised components, and applying these percentage changes
to the revised 1974 actual data.
> Preliminary.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Office of Management and Budget
52
education grants which were drawn down in 1975 rather than in 1974, and
congressional inaction on Presidential reform proposals for medicaid accounted for most of the increases in grants.
Over half of the $6-billion underestimation of transfer payments to persons is traceable to differences between expected and actual legislation, with
the remaining underestimate distributed among a number of programs. Congress failed to enact the proposed 5 percent caps on automatic cost-of-living
increases for transfer programs linked to the consumer price index or linked
to an index of food costs alone. Social security recipients, for example, received an 8 percent increase in benefits on July 1, 1975, equal to the rise
in the consumer price index from the second quarter of 1974 to the
first quarter of 1975, according to the automatic cost-of-living formula
adopted in 1972. The extra spending for this and other indexed programs,
such as supplemental security income, Federal employee retirement and
disability, military retired pay, railroad retirement, and food stamps,
amounted to $1^2 billion. In addition, $1% billion was paid to certain social
insurance beneficiaries in the second quarter of 1975 as a result of the $50
bonus provided for each recipient by the Tax Reduction Act of 1975.
Over the past decade Federal transfer payments to persons have grown at
an increasing pace. Between 1965 and 1973, both years of high resource
utilization, the fraction of Federal expenditures accounted for by transfers
to persons rose from 24 percent to 35 percent. Since then this share has
grown to 41 percent Only part of the recent rise has been due to higher
rates of inflation, the direct Federal funding of certain welfare programs
previously financed through grants, and the low levels of economic activity
in the past 2 years.
One-third of the $3ly2-billion growth in transfer payments to persons
from 1974 to 1975 cannot be explained by such factors. In 1975 unemployment benefits increased by $11 billion over 1974, with $8!/2 billion of this
rise attributable to higher covered unemployment, $5/2 billion to higher
average weekly benefits in response to wage inflation, and the remaining $2
billion to new legislation extending the scope of unemployment insurance.
Since the consumer price index rose 9 percent from 1974 to 1975, additional
expenditures of $10 billion were required to hold the real value of Federal
transfer payments unchanged. Most of the remaining $10/2 billion resulted
from noncyclical growth in real transfer payments.
FEDERAL RECEIPTS
Federal receipts (NIA) declined in 1975 as a result of the tax cuts that
went into effect at the low point of the business cvcle and produced an $185/2billion reduction in receipts (excluding secondary effects). While nominal
GNP rose by 6/2 percent in spite of the recession, receipts fell by 2 percent,
dropping from $288 billion in 1974 to $283 billion in 1975 (Table 7).
The overall decline in receipts closely matched that estimated in February 1975, since larger tax cuts were offset by upward reestimates of
53
receipts, even though the underlying economic developments were not significantly different from those assumed in last year's budget. The composition of receipts was quite different, however, since the President's energy
program was not passed and since his program to provide economic stimulus
was changed.
The President's energy program included decontrol of all domestic crude
oil prices by April 1, 1975, coupled with higher import fees, excise taxes on
domestic oil and natural gas, and a windfall profits tax on domestic producers of oil. In 1975 these additional indirect business taxes were estimated
at $26^2 billion, $19 billion of which was to be returned to individuals
and $6 billion to corporations, through income tax reductions. Unlike
the energy program, the President's program to stimulate the economy
involved a reduction rather than a rearrangement of taxes. It provided
for $12 billion in tax rebates to individuals and a 1-year increase in
the investment tax credit for businesses (mostly nonfinancial corporations)
costing approximately $3 billion. Hence the President's entire program
would have lowered personal tax and nontax receipts by $31 billion and
corporate profits tax receipts by $9 billion, compared to the receipts estimated if the 1974 tax laws were applied unchanged to the income levels
projected for 1975. The actions actually taken, however, lowered taxes by
$16 billion for individuals and $2/2 billion for corporations in 1975. Differences in legislation alone would thus have caused individual income tax
receipts to be $15 billion higher, corporate income taxes $6^/2 billion higher,
and indirect business taxes (including the $25/2-billion import fees on crude
oil and products) $24 billion lower than in the February estimates. These
program changes accounted for most of the differences among the receipt
components shown in Table 7.
BALANCES OF THE FEDERAL SECTOR
The Federal sector deficit (NIA) rose from $12 billion in 1974 to an
estimated $73 billion in 1975. Less than half of the $61-billion increase was
due to the loss of receipts and the increase in expenditures directly
caused by the cyclical downturn, since the decline in the full-employment
balance equaled more than half the increase in the deficit (Table 8).
Full-employment surpluses or deficits are the differences between what
receipts and expenditures are estimated to be if the economy were operating
at the potential output level consistent with 4 percent unemployment.* The
*Until a formal reappraisal of potential output growth over the past decades can
be completed in the light of the benchmark revisions and other factors, the following
provisional procedure is used to estimate potential GNP in 1972 dollars: The percentage output gap is assumed to be —0.89 percent in the fourth quarter of 1968,
the same as it was on the old basis; and potential output is projected to grow subsequently at a 4 percent annual rate, the same rate used before. On the new basis
the gap in the third quarter of 1975 is estimated to be 12.63 percent, the same as
on the old basis, but differences of more than 1 percentage point are observed in some
earlier quarters.
54
TABLE 8.—Actual and full—employment Federal and State and local government receipts and
expenditures, national income accounts basis, calendar years 1969-^75
[Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal Government
Calendar year
Receipts
Expenditures
State and local government
Surplus
or deficit
(-)
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus
or deficit
(-)
Combined
surplus
or
deficit
C-)
Actual:
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
19751
197.0
192. 1
198.6
227.5
257.9
288.4
283.5
188.4
204.2
220.6
244.7
264.8
300.1
356.9
8.5
-12.1
-22.0
-17.3
-6.9
-11.7
-73.4
119.7
134.9
152.6
177.4
193.8
209.4
232.4
117.6
132.2
148.9
163.7
180.9
201.3
222.4
2.1
2.8
3.7
13.7
12.9
8.1
10.0
10.7
-9.4
-18.3
-3.5
6.0
-3.6
-63.5
1974: 1
II
III
IV
275.7
285.6
299.2
293.1
281.1
293.5
307.2
318.6
-5.3
-7.9
-8.0
-25.5
201.9
207.3
213.5
214.9
192.6
199.1
204.5
209.0
9.4
8.2
9.1
5.9
4.0
.3
1.0
-19.6
1975: 1
II
HI
283.6
250.1
293.3
337.4
352.3
363.8
-53.7
-102.2
-70.5
221.2
228.2
237.7
215.5
219.4
224.8
5.7
8.8
12.9
-48.0
-93.4
-57.6
1969.
1970
1971
19722
1973.
1974
19751
199.7
208.9
218.6
234.4
271.2
323.2
340.8
188.8
202.9
218.2
242.7
263.7
297.8
348.3
10.9
5.9
.4
-8.4
7.5
25.4
-7.5
120.1
140.6
160.4
183.9
198.7
224.5
259.8
117.6
132.2
148.9
163.7
180.9
201.3
222.4
2.6
8.4
11.5
20.2
17.8
23.2
37.4
13.5
14.3
11.9
11.8
25.3
48.6
29.9
1974: 1
II
Ml
IV
297.3
315.6
337.0
342.7
279.5
291.9
305.0
314.7
17.8
23.7
32.0
28.0
211.2
220.2
229.8
236.7
192.6
199.1
204.5
209.0
18.6
21.1
25.3
27.7
36.4
44.8
57.3
55.7
1975: 1
II
III
344.8
309.8
348.6
329.8
343.0
355.3
15.1
-33.3
-6.7
249.6
257.3
263.9
215.5
219.4
224.8
34.1
37.9
39.1
49.2
4.6
32.4
Full-employment:
1 Preliminary.
2
The $9.1 billion estimated increase in overwithholding of personal income taxes is not included in 1972 full-employment receipts.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Office of Management and Budget, and
Council of Economic Advisers.
measurement of these balances has been complicated by several factors in
recent years. If they are computed on a consistent basis, however, changes
in the full-employment balance can be used to indicate changes in the
thrust of fiscal policy. Unlike the levels of these balances, the changes from
year to year are not sensitive to the choice of the unemployment rate used
to adjust actual receipts and expenditures for cyclical effects. If the calculations are based upon a 4 percent rate, Federal expenditures must be reduced
by the difference between actual unemployment benefits and the unemployment benefits that would be paid at 4 percent unemployment under
continuing programs. (An analogous adjustment is made to bring unemployment insurance taxes down to a level consistent with 4 percent unemployment. )
In computing the full-employment balance, the introduction of new unemployment benefit programs during the comparison period is handled by treat-
55
ing all expenditures under these programs as if they were included in fullemployment expenditures. By this procedure the change in fiscal stimulus
which stems from the adoption of new policy measures can be gauged correctly, even though the additional spending from these programs would not
have occurred if unemployment had not risen. Thus full-employment expenditures for 1975 include the Federal supplemental benefits resulting from
the increase in the maximum duration of unemployment benefits in December 1974 and March 1975. They also include expenditures under the
special unemployment assistance program, which was enacted on a temporary basis in December 1974 to cover some unemployed wage and salary
workers who are ineligible for the regular Federal or State programs solely
because part or all of their employment was not in the covered sector.
The $33-billion decline in the full-employment balance from 1974 to 1975,
a reduction which approached 2 percent of potential GNP, was the largest
since the Council's series began in 1955. Full-employment expenditures,
which rose 4 percentage points faster than potential GNP in current dollars,
and the statutory tax cuts contributed about equally to this result. The swing
between individual quarters was even greater. For instance, at an annual
rate the actual deficit was $94 billion higher and the full-employment balance $65 billion lower in the second quarter of 1975 than in the third quarter
of 1974, when the full-employment budget surplus was at a peak. For both
measures, however, $39 billion of the swing was due to the one-time individual income tax rebates and to the special payments to certain social insurance recipients that were made in the second quarter of 1975. The stimulus to the economy resulting from the temporary tax measures was probably
far less than that resulting from the reduction in withholding rates. Although
the dollar amounts of temporary and permanent individual income tax cuts
were roughly equal in 1975, a one-time increase in consumer income is generally expected to raise spending by less than would result from an equal
increase in current income which is expected to be maintained.
The fiscal stimulus that remained in place during the second half of 1975
shows that the increases in the full-employment budget surplus which occurred from 1972 to 1974 have been completely offset. Between 1972 and
1974, increasing rates of inflation raised full-employment receipts proportionately more than full-employment expenditures. The decline in the rate
of inflation in 1975 may have reversed the operation of this process, since the
higher past rates of inflation still contribute to the current growth of fullemployment expenditures while they have little effect on the current growth
in full-employment receipts.
The effect of declining inflation on actual and full-employment corporate
tax receipts has been particularly striking. Inventory profits decreased from
$39 billion, or 29 percent of the book profits of corporations in 1974, to
$12 billion, or 10 percent of book profits in 1975. Because of this decline,
the share of profits in GNP used to estimate corporate profits tax accruals
at full employment fell from 11 *4 percent to 9l/% percent.
56
Personal tax and nontax payments also respond disproportionately to
changes in the rate of inflation. At full employment, the base of the personal
income tax (which is approximated by personal income plus personal contributions for social insurance and minus transfer payments and other labor
income) is estimated to be 72 percent of potential GNP. The average tax rate
applied to this base rises over time as a result of inflation and growth. When
the rate of inflation is about 6 percent, as it was from the fourth quarter of
1974 to the fourth quarter of 1975, and the full-employment tax base is
growing by 4 percent per annum in real terms, the overall elasticity of personal taxes is between 1.40 and 1.45 with respect to the personal income
tax base. If the nonrebate features of the Tax Reduction Act of
1975 or the provisions of the subsequent Revenue Adjustment Act were
extended without change beyond the middle of this year, the average tax
rate on the base, which was 13.0 percent in 1974 and 12.3 in the fourth
quarter of 1975, would again reach 13.0 percent by the middle of 1977,
assuming 4 percent potential growth and 6 percent inflation per year. Under
these assumptions it would thus take only about 1J/2 years to reverse completely the reduction in the average tax rate resulting from the 1975 legislation. Provided that the growth in full-employment expenditures does not
exceed that of potential GNP—as it did in 1975—a gradual rise in the
full-employment surplus is built into the tax system.
STATE AND LOCAL AND COMBINED BALANCES
The full-employment surplus of State and local governments rose by $14
billion from the third quarter of 1974 to the corresponding quarter of 1975,
offsetting over a third of the downswing in the Federal full-employment
balance during this period. State and local governments shifted to greater
restraint in their fiscal operations to prevent operating deficits from increasing as much as would automatically result from the recession.
State and local governments incurred operating deficits for 5 successive
quarters, starting in the second quarter of 1974. The operating deficits are
not shown in Table 8, but they can be obtained from the NIA surplus or
deficit by subtracting the surplus of the social insurance funds of State and
local governments. From the start of 1974 to the middle of 1975 this surplus grew from $9 billion to $11 billion. The operating deficit reached
a peak of $5 billion (annual rate) in the first quarter of 1975, in spite of
progressive increases in the full-employment surplus during 1974-75. By
the third quarter, however, the operating deficit was eliminated after the economic recovery had begun. Toward the end of 1975, State and local governments had a small operating surplus, the first such surplus since late 1973
when the unemployment rate was less than 5 percent.
The swing in the fiscal position of State and local governments has been
much more pronounced and procyclical in the last recession than in earlier
ones. Though aided by an unusually large increase in Federal grants of $10
billion from 1974 to 1975, many State and local governments were unprepared for the depth and duration of the last recession and hence were
57
forced to adjust to new economic and financial realities. They did so by
keeping the rate of growth of expenditures well below the rate of growth of
potential GNP and by enacting tax increases of over $1 billion.
MONEY AND CREDIT
The monetary trends established in the second half of 1974 continued
during the first quarter of 1975 as the economic decline intensified. Shortterm interest rates fell sharply, continuing the steep decline that had begun
in August 1974. During the same period, the growth in monetary aggregates
slowed, with the narrowly defined money stock (Mi) actually declining
slightly.
In the second and third quarters short-term rates of interest and the
monetary aggregates exhibited behavior that is typical around a business
cycle trough. Thus the monetary aggregates accelerated sharply just before
the turnaround in production that started in April, and they continued to
grow rapidly throughout the second quarter. Short-term interest rates
reached a trough in June, shortly after the recovery had begun, and then
rebounded fairly sharply in the third quarter.
However, neither of these patterns was sustained. Short-term interest rates
peaked in September and by December had fallen back to their May levels.
The growth in the monetary aggregates, which had fallen off sharply in the
third quarter, remained sluggish through the end of the year. In spite of this
return to patterns reminiscent of the first quarter of the year, however, GNP
continued to grow rapidly from the third to the fourth quarter of the year.
MONETARY AGGREGATES
The steep decline in output in the first quarter of 1975 contributed to a
significant slowdown in the rate of growth in the monetary aggregates. The
decelerations show up even in 3-month growth rates (Chart 1). The rate
for MI turns negative in February, while that for M2 drops by over 2 percentage points from December 1974 to January 1975.
In the second quarter of 1975 this pattern was reversed. The money stock
increased strikingly as the Treasury paid out nearly $10 billion in special
tax rebates and special payments to certain social insurance recipients. The
Federal Reserve did not move to offset the large increase in the money stock,
and the aggregates expanded at substantial and accelerating rates. From the
end of the first quarter to the end of the second, MI grew by 11.7 percent per
annum, while M2 advanced at a 14.1 percent annual rate.
During the third and fourth quarters of 1975 nominal GNP increased
at a rapid rate as the recovery progressed. However, the fast growth in the
monetary aggregates typical of the early stages of previous recoveries was
not sustained this time. In fact monetary growth decelerated sharply
in the second half of the year, exactly at the time that income was accelerating. Growth in velocity hence accounted for a larger share of the
increase in nominal GNP than has been the case at comparable stages of the
58
Chart 1
Interest Rates and Monetary Growth
PERCENT PER ANNUM
14
12
10
PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER
(4-6 months)
FEDERAL FUNDS
0
III
IV
IV
1975
1974
3-MONTH GROWTH RATES (PERCENT)
-5
IV
1974
1975
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
59
last four postwar recessions. Moreover the large increase in velocity
in the fourth quarter occurred when short-term rates of interest were
actually falling.
Over the third quarter M! grew at a 2.3 percent annual rate, M 2 by
6.5 percent. These represent significant drops from the corresponding rates
for the 3 months before: a decline of 9.4 percentage points in the MI growth
rate, 7.6 points in the M2 growth rate. These decelerations were large
enough that the growth rates of the two aggregates for the 6-month period
from March to September fell within the Federal Reserve's prescribed
ranges, despite the fact that in May and June the aggregates had grown
well above the prescribed ranges.
The growth in the aggregates did not recover significantly in the fourth
quarter of 1975, however. From September to December, MI grew at a 2.3
percent annual rate, M2 by 7.0 percent. Because of this persistence of sluggish monetary growth in the fourth quarter, growth in the aggregates for
all of 1975 remained moderate. From the fourth quarter of 1974 to the
fourth quarter of 1975, Mx grew by 4.5 percent, M2 by 8.7 percent.
Despite the fact that 1975 was partly a recovery year, the growth in M!
was somewhat lower than the 5.2 percent rate recorded in the recession
year 1974, while the growth in the broader definition of money, M2, was
only a percentage point higher than in 1974.
THE MONEY AND BOND MARKETS
In early 1975, short-term interest rates continued the sharp decline of
the last half of 1974, reflecting weak short-term credit demands and reduced
inflationary expectations. Yields on new issues of 3-month Treasury bills declined 2 full percentage points from December 1974, reaching a low point of
5.2 percent in June 1975. Over this same period, yields on 4- to 6-month
prime commercial paper fell from 9 percent to 5.8 percent.
During the summer short-term rates rose significantly and monetary
growth decelerated. Bill rates were near 65/2 percent in August and September; commercial paper rates peaked at 6.9 percent in September. This
rise in interest rates following a turnaround in business activity was completely in keeping with the behavior of interest rates at comparable stages of
previous recoveries. In that sense it was not unexpected, but in another
sense it was. In previous recoveries the rise in short-term rates of interest
has been associated with a rising private demand for credit. In the third
quarter of 1975, however, private demand for credit remained relatively
weak despite the rise in output, in part because inventories continued to be
liquidated. It is therefore hard to argue that interest rates rose in the third
quarter because of the quickening pace of economic activity.
A second explanation is the sharp decline in monetary growth in the
third quarter. But if that is the reason, why did the decline in interest rates
moderate in the second quarter when the monetary aggregates accelerated
sharply? Moreover, the slow growth in the aggregates during the summer
60
may have represented the winding-down of a temporary buildup in cash
balances due to the rebates, and if so, it should not have put upward pressure on interest rates. Finally, if slow money growth explains the rise in
interest rates in the third quarter, how are slow money growth and falling
interest rates in the fourth quarter to be reconciled?
A third explanation is that the sharp increase in the CPI in June and July
caused inflationary expectations to be revised upward, which in turn led
investors to demand higher nominal rates of interest. This reasoning can
also explain the reversal of rates in the fourth quarter: the slow rate of price
rise in August and a return to the more moderate rates of inflation of the
first half of the year led inflationary expectations to be revised back down
again.
Rates of interest on long-term securities were much more stable than
short-term rates, as is typically the case. Moody's Aaa corporate bond yield,
which stood at 9.27 percent in October 1974, declined only to 8.62 percent
in February 1975 and fluctuated slightly below 9 percent for most of the
rest of the year. A large volume of new issues of long-term corporate debt
in the first half of 1975 helped to hold up long-term yields. Because the drop
in long rates from their 1974 highs was much less than the fall in short rates,
the large premium of short over long rates that had developed in the summer of 1974 was reversed. In July 1974, the 4- to 6-month commercial paper
rate was 300 basis points above Moody's Aaa corporate bond yield. In
October of last year it was nearly 240 basis points below.
Yields on municipal bonds also displayed a noticeable upward trend for
most of the year, although they too fell at year-end. Events in the municipal
bond markets were dominated by the financial difficulties of New York City.
The uneasiness created by the New York situation raised a general question
about the solvency of State and local governments and agencies in the minds
of many investors. As a consequence the yields on prime municipal bonds
rose moderately relative to both U.S. Government issues and high-grade
corporate bonds from June to November, as investors demanded increased
risk premiums to buy municipals. Much greater yield increases developed
for less highly rated municipals.
Municipal bond markets became more orderly after the November 26
announcement of the President's program of conditional loans to New York
City. The spread between interest rates on prime municipal bonds and
high-grade corporate bonds promptly returned to approximately what it had
been during the summer. However, the yield spread between prime and
medium-grade municipal bonds remained at the high levels reached during the New York crisis (roughly 85 basis points), reflecting continued
concern by investors about the credit worthiness of some issuers.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
Continued economic uncertainty, coupled with declines in market rates
of interest, contributed to strong inflows of funds into time and savings
accounts at commercial banks and into nonbank thrift institutions in 1975.
61
597-578 O - 76 - 5
This trend was accentuated in early summer by the deposit of tax rebate
checks and one-time social security payments. From December 1974 to July
1975 commercial bank time and savings accounts grew at an annual rate of
15 percent, while deposits in thrift institutions increased at nearly an 18 percent rate (Table 9). In the last 5 months of 1975 these flows abated somewhat, especially in the early fall when short-term rates reached their peaks
for the year. The inflows stepped up again, however, as rates receded in the
autumn. Growth for the last 5 months of the year was at an 8.6 percent
annual rate for time and savings deposits in commercial banks and 12.9
percent for deposits in nonbank thrift institutions.
Commercial and industrial loans at commercial banks declined by $7.8
billion from January to June as business inventories were liquidated at unprecedented rates, market yields fell more sharply than bank lending rates,
and firms attempted to reduce short-term debt and improve liquidity positions. The decline in total loans was even larger, $11.4 billion. The figures
show modest growth in loans after June. However, this may be somewhat
misleading because part of the increase represented bankers' acceptances,
which are more like short-term money market instruments than loans.
Paralleling the large decline in loans was the sharp runoff of large negotiable certificates of deposit (CDs). From January to August large CDs
fell by $14.7 billion, a 26 percent decline at an annual rate. With loan
demand weak and deposit inflows strong, commercial banks increased their
investments, principally in Treasury securities, by $33.8 billion from January to December. The shift toward investments and away from loans, and the
substitution of other time and savings deposits for large CDs have produced
TABLE 9.—Selected components of commercial bank credit and time and savings deposits, 1974-75
[Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Commercial bank credit1
Bank time and savings deposits 2
Month
Commercial Holdings of U.S.
and industrial
Government
loans 3
securities
Large
CDs
Other
Deposits at
nonbank
thrift
institutions 2
178.0
55.9
83.6
319.2
360.0
182.6
48.8
90.3
329.1
368.2
June
184.1
182.5
180.9
180.5
179.1
176.3
48.7
53.2
58.5
64.0
68.2
72.4
92.7
92.1
89.8
88.4
85.5
84.1
333.2
336.7
340.1
343.1
347.4
353.1
371.5
375.3
380.8
386.8
392.4
399.2
July
August
September
October
November
December*
177.6
177.5
176.4
177.9
178.9
177.7
73.4
75.6
77.1
75.1
76.3
77.9
82.1
78.0
79.1
81.3
81.4
83.3
357.0
359.4
361.7
364.6
368.6
371.2
405.4
410.5
414.8
419.0
423.1
426.4
1974: July
December
1975* January
February
March
April
Mav
_
1
End of month data.
2
Averages of daily figures.
3 Excludes loans sold.
* Preliminary.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
62
a significant restructuring of bank balance sheets. Banks were clearly far
more liquid by the end of 1975 than they were at the outset.
The stock market registered a sizable gain during 1975, but still remained
substantially below the high levels achieved in the winter of 1972-73.
Standard and Poor's index of 500 common stocks rose 38 percent from
December 1974 to July 1975, fell about 8J/2 percent from July to September, but recovered about half of this loss by December.
RANGES FOR MONETARY GROWTH RATES
In May 1975 the Federal Reserve announced ranges of tolerance for
the growth rates of M3, M2, M3, and the bank credit proxy for the coming
year. This step is potentially quite significant for promoting greater economic
stability.
In the first place, explicit ranges of tolerance for monetary growth rates
may reduce uncertainty about one important aspect of monetary policy:
the growth in the money supply, however defined. By announcing ranges
of tolerance, the Federal Reserve has indicated that it does not intend to
permit growth rates of the aggregates to deviate too far or too long from
a longer-range path.
The new policy may also affect inflationary expectations. By choosing
ranges which encompass moderate rates of growth for the aggregates, the
Federal Reserve signaled its intention to contain the rate of inflation.
Indeed, the Federal Reserve has indicated on several occasions that even
the present ranges of tolerance for monetary growth cannot be continued
indefinitely if further progress is to be made against inflation.
The base for measuring the rate of growth of each aggregate was initially its March average. Because month-to-month movements in the aggregates have a large random component, the base was subsequently changed
to the second-quarter average. A further revision was made in November
when the Federal Reserve updated the base to the third-quarter average.
In every case, the period for which the ranges were to apply was a year.
Hence the ranges currently apply through the third quarter of 1976.
The range for Mt growth rates has been 5—7^/2 percent since the ranges
were announced in May. For M2, the range is currently 7/2-105/2 percent,
that for M3, 9-12 percent. The range for the credit proxy is currently 6-9
percent.
As has been pointed out by the Federal Reserve, the revisions in the base
have had the effect of raising the ranges of tolerance, measured from the
original March base, for all the aggregates except the credit proxy. The reason is that all of the aggregates except the credit proxy grew near the upper
end of the ranges between each of the revisions. Since the third-quarter
base was established, however, all of the aggregates have grown below the
announced ranges.
63
DEMAND AND OUTPUT
CONSUMER INCOME AND SAVING
Real disposable personal income increased 3.7 percent during 1975, after
a decline of 3.1 percent during 1974 that was about three times more severe
than the decline in any otv ^r postwar recession. After decreasing slightly in
the first quarter, real disposable income grew at a 5.9 percent annual rate during the last 3 quarters of 1975. The increase was due to the real growth of
GNP after the first quarter and the tax reductions stemming from enactment of the Tax Reduction Act of 1975. This act provided $8.1 billion in
cash rebates and lowered withholding by $7.8 billion for the year as a whole,
although reduced withholding did not begin until May 1. The act also
included $1.8 billion in one-time $50 payments to social security and certain
other pension recipients.
The composition of personal income growth shifted as the economy moved
from recession into recovery in 1975 (Table 10). Transfer payments rose
rapidly in the first half of the year, while income gains in the second half
were largely due to increases in wages and salaries. At an annual rate, transfer payments rose $12.3 billion in the first quarter of 1975, $11.8 billion in
the second quarter, and $3.1 billion in the third. About half of the secondquarter increase was due to the one-time $50 social security payments,
whose later absence was largely offset by a $6.7-billion cost-of-living increase for social security recipients in the third quarter. At an annual rate,
wages and salaries increased by only $4.0 billion in the first half of 1975
and then increased by $42.9 billion in the last half of the year as the recovery
progressed. Proprietors' income was affected most by changes in farm income,
which fell sharply in the first half and rebounded in the second half.
For the year as a whole, personal saving averaged 8J4 percent of disposable income, higher than the 7 percent average from 1969 to 1973 and
the 6 percent average from 1960 to 1969. The saving rate rose sharply to 9.9
percent in the second quarter, largely because of the tax rebates and onetime transfer payments. Many consumers apparently made their spending
decisions on the basis of longer-run expected income, and so a large portion
of this temporary increase in income was saved. If the 7 percent saving rate
which was the norm over the preceding cycle had applied in the second
quarter of 1975, consumer expenditures would have been about $32 billion
higher than they actually were. This suggests that roughly 80 percent of the
one-time Federal payments, including both the rebates and the social security bonuses, was saved during the quarter. In the last half of 1975 the saving
rate averaged 8.0 percent.
While data limitations make empirical analysis difficult, a number of
hypotheses have been advanced to explain the generally higher saving rates
of the 1970s relative to those of the 1960s. One set of explanations has focused
on the effects of real household net wealth on personal saving rates. If
consumer spending depends positively on wealth, a fall in wealth relative to
64
TABLE 10.—Changes in personal income measures, 1974-75
[Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates]
19 75
Income measure
Personal income2
Labor income
Proprietors' income3
Property income4
Transfer payments
19751
1974
i
II
III
IV i
9 5
7 9
3.0
6.9
12.9
9.3
5.5
-.6
3.8
10.5
57.1
12.0
12.0
-4.5
17.7
7.2
6.6
2.0
10.4
-7.2
15.3
18.4
-2.1
10.1
24.6
8.9
9.5
1.6
.8
-17.8
5.6
36.6
-4.9
4.3
31.5
10 9
Disposable personal income:
Total, current dollars
Total, 1972 dollars
Per capita, 1972 dollars..
—1.5
-2.1
3.2
-2.8
-3.7
24.5
19.7
18.8
-5.2
-6.3
4,8
£o
1
Preliminary.
2 Includes personal contributions for social insurance, not shown separately.
3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
4
Rental income (with capital consumption adjustment), dividends, and personal interest income.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
income will reduce the average propensity to consume and hence raise the
saving rate. One important difference between the 1960s and the 1970s
has been the much higher inflation rate in the later period. If the higher
inflation rate produced a decline in real household net wealth, saving rates
may have been raised. Corporate equities are one important component of
household financial assets, and it is revealing to examine their behavior
during the 1970s.
In 1969, Standard and Poor's composite price index for 500 common
stocks averaged 97.8. The index peaked in early 1973 at 120.2 and
declined more or less continuously through the end of 1974. Despite a rise
during 1975 the index stood at 90.2 at year-end, 8 percent below its level in
1969. By contrast, the price level rose continuously throughout the period:
the consumer price index rose 47 percent between 1969 and the end of 1975.
Taken together, these data imply that the real value of equities declined
37 percent from 1969 to the end of 1975.
Another explanation of the higher saving rates during the 1970s is that
high and variable inflation and unemployment rates have created an unusual
degree of uncertainty for consumers. This uncertainty may have reduced
expected real income and hence raised saving rates.
CONSUMER EXPENDITURES
Real consumption declined to a trough in the fourth quarter of 1974, 2.8
percent below its previous peak. In the fourth quarter real outlays for nearly
all categories of consumer goods fell sharply. This was a major reason for
the involuntary buildup of inventories that depressed production in early
1975. Although the severity in the total decline of consumption during
the recession was tied to the extraordinary decline in real disposable income from late 1973, the decline in demand at the end of 1974 was
unexpectedly large. Judging from monthly retail sales data, the pace of con-
65
sumption began to increase early in the first quarter of last year and
remained strong through midyear. During the last half of the year the growth
of consumption slowed somewhat. From the fourth quarter of 1974 to the
fourth quarter of 1975 real consumption rose 3.9 percent, while the 1975
average was 0.9 percent above the 1974 average. Not surprisingly, during this
cycle purchases of durable goods declined most severely and showed the
sharpest recovery, while nondurables fell off less and most services were fairly
stable.
Durables fell 17 percent from their prerecession peak and then rose 11
percent during last year. This decline was much greater than in any previous recession, while the magnitude of recovery was representative of past
cycles. Automobile sales dominated both the sharp decline in durables in late
1974 and their recovery during 1975. New car purchases collapsed in the
fourth quarter of 1974, declining by 30 percent. Some of the sharpness of
the drop in late 1974 reflected a concentration of auto sales in the third
quarter of 1974, when consumers increased purchases of 1974 models to
avoid the large price increases announced for the 1975 models. The impact
of the price increases was accentuated by several factors. The list price increases were exceptionally large because of several factors, including newly
required safety and air pollution control equipment. In addition, the price
increases were concentrated on smaller and medium-sized models, which
have the greatest price sensitivity. Furthermore the increases followed a
series of extraordinary rises in the course of the 1974 model year.
The auto manufacturers introduced sizable rebates as well as other
discounts in mid-January of last year. These remained in effect, for the
most part, through March. Sales of domestic new cars improved from a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5% million cars in December 1974 to a
7*4-million rate in February 1975. After the end of the rebate period in
late March, sales fell back to about 6 million. Both the first-quarter surge
and the second-quarter slowdown in sales were dominated by movements in
the sales rate of small domestic cars, which were the principal beneficiaries of
the rebate discounts of the first quarter. Sales followed a moderately upward
trend during the balance of the year, reaching an annual rate of about 8
million by the fourth quarter.
Real outlays for nondurable goods increased by more than 4 percent during
1975, after a reduction of nearly 3 percent during 1974. Previous postwar
declines exceeded 1 percent only once, during the 1958 recession. Reduced
real outlays for clothing, food, house furnishings, and miscellaneous items
dominated the fall-off, while increases in food and clothing led the recovery
in nondurables. About 11 percent of the total decline in real consumption
of nondurables from the third quarter of 1973 to the last quarter of 1974
was a result of smaller energy purchases.
Personal consumption expenditures for energy, in constant dollars, rose
4.0 percent last year over 1974, but were still 1.3 percent lower than in
1973. By the end of 1975 real consumer outlays for gas and electric utility
66
services were slightly higher than their peak in the third quarter of 1973,
while real outlays for gasoline and motor oil declined by about 2 l /z percent
over the same period. On the other hand, real outlays for fuel oil and coal
declined over 30 percent from their peak in the last quarter of 1972 to the
end of 1975, partly because of warmer than average weather.
BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT
Business fixed investment was almost unchanged in 1975 in current dollars
but was down 12 percent in real terms. This drop in real investment outlays
reflected the combination of recession and inflation in 1974, which lowered
capacity utilization and operating profits and raised the replacement cost
of plant and equipment. In addition, the declines in common stock and bond
prices through most of 1974 depressed the market values of corporate stocks
and bonds to a level below the replacement cost of the underlying assets,
thereby discouraging investment expenditures.
Real investment outlays fell rapidly through the second quarter of 1975.
In the third quarter a sharp rise in car and truck purchases largely offset
declines in other producers' goods, while nonresidential construction was
unchanged. By the fourth quarter there were widespread increases in purchases of producers' durable equipment.
At the start of 1975 several industries, notably materials producers,
planned year-to-year increases in real investment. There were real increases in investment by the steel, petroleum refining, and mining industries,
while investment by the paper and chemical industries was about unchanged. These are all industries in which capacity constraints existed in
1973. This investment strength is significant because all of the manufacturing industries in the group, except petroleum refining, were experiencing lower rates of capacity utilization early in 1975 than the average
for manufacturing as a whole. Nonelectrical machinery, another industry
in which some shortages were apparent in 1973, slowed its rate of real investment somewhat in 1975. This industry had increased real investment
substantially in 1974, however. Other industries reduced their investment
as utilization of capacity dropped last year. Among these were electrical
machinery, autos and trucks, textiles, and rubber manufacturing.
Improving profits and sales after the first quarter of 1975 were reflected
in new orders for nondefense capital goods. From their trough in the first
quarter, new orders rose 6 percent to the third quarter and then grew more
slowly in the fourth. However, indicators of planned commercial and industrial construction showed slow growth from their early 1975 lows.
RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT
The annual rate of total private housing starts increased to 1.4 million
units by the fourth quarter of last year from a 1.0-million rate in the fourth
quarter of 1974. While both single and multifamily starts increased over
40 percent during 1975, the share of multifamily starts in the total remained
67
below the average of the early 1970s. Real residential investment., which
lags housing starts by 1 or 2 quarters, bottomed out in the first half of 1975
and then began to rise appreciably, from $34 billion in the second quarter
to $41 billion in the fourth. Nevertheless for 1975 as a whole real outlays were
18 percent below their 1974 level. A discussion of the factors affecting
residential investment appears in Chapter 1.
INVENTORY INVESTMENT
During the first 3 quarters of 1974, firms increased their inventories in
response to earlier shortages and expectations of future price and sales increases. The ratio of nonfarm inventories to final sales rose to 0.261 in the
third quarter of 1974 from a level of 0.244 a year earlier. In the fourth
quarter the decline in real nonfarm business final sales at an annual
rate of 11.4 percent produced a further, largely involuntary, inventory accumulation. The nonfarm inventory-sales ratio increased to 0.271 in
the fourth quarter, the highest level of the postwar period. Of the $9.0-billion annual rate increase in real nonfarm inventories in the fourth quarter,
$2.6 billion was due to increased automobile inventories.
In response to the large accumulation of inventories, purchases from
manufacturers were reduced. As a result real retail and wholesale trade
inventories declined at an annual rate of $13.8 billion in the first quarter
of 1975, including a $5.5 billion annual rate decline in new car stocks.
Manufacturing inventories were not reduced rapidly until the second
quarter. This pattern, in which changes in trade inventories lead changes in
manufacturing inventories, is a typical cyclical one (Table 11).
The real nonfarm inventory decumulation slowed to a $3.3-billion annual
rate in the third quarter. Inventory reductions continued in the fabricated
metals and machinery sectors and began in the primary metals sector, where
TABLE 11.—Changes in business inventories, 1974-75
[Billions of 1972 dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rates]
19 75
Type
1974
IV
Total business inventories
Farm
Nonfarm
.
__
..
._
Manufacturing
Durable goods .
Nondurable goods _ .
. __ __
Wholesale trade
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Retail trade
Durable goods
.
_
Nondurable goods__ _
All other
1
7.6
-19.0
-20.7
9.0
7 0
-3 0
4.3
2.7
1.5
2.2
-.7
2
4.5
-4.3
.3
Preliminary.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
II
-1 2
-17.9
-1.5
68
III
1
.2
-3.2
-3.5
-4
-3.1
-10 3
-10.3
-.0
-1.1
-.1
IV i
-0.8
2.5
0.2
3.7
-20.6
-3.3
-3.5
-9 2
-5.4
-6.5
-3.6
-4.5
-4.7
-5.6
-2.4
-3.2
4 5
-3.0
-1.5
-1.2
1.0
-.8
-1.6
.8
3.6
3.7
-.1
-.6
-.8
2.8
-2.8
-1.2
-1.6
-.8
.7
.2
inventory accumulation had continued through the second quarter. In most
other industries the inventory correction was largely ended as rising sales and
the preceding inventory decumulation brought inventories closer to desired
levels. The ratio of nonfarm inventories to final sales fell to 0.254 in the
third quarter of 1975, the lowest level since the first quarter of 1974. The
ratio declined further in the fourth quarter, largely as a result of accelerating
final sales
NET EXPORTS
On an NIA basis nominal net exports rose by $14.2 billion during
1975. Real net exports increased $6.9 billion, the result of a 2.4 percent decline in real exports and an 11.7 percent decline in imports. Both real imports
and real exports began to increase in the second half of the year. Most of the
increase in real net exports reflected shifts in merchandise trade flows, which
were dominated by cyclical developments here and abroad.
On a balance of payments basis the volume of merchandise imports fell
at an annual rate of 13.8 percent between the fourth quarter of 1974 and
the third quarter of 1975. This fall largely mirrored the inventory decumulation which characterized most of 1975. For example, imports of industrial
supplies other than petroleum, which are particularly sensitive to inventory
shifts, fell at an annual rate of almost 40 percent during the first 3 quarters
of 1975. Imports of finished goods also reflected inventory shifts, especially
in the case of automobiles, and the weakness of final demand. Toward the
end of the year, as the inventory adjustment tapered off, the volume of
imports, particularly of consumer goods, began to increase.
Export volume remained stable during the year despite the recession in
most industrial countries. This stability resulted mainly from a rise in agricultural exports, which partly offset a decline in other merchandise exports.
Exports of capital goods stabilized at a rather high level, partly because delivery of these goods tends to lag behind the cycle and partly because shipments to oil-producing countries increased. In addition, the relative improvement in price competitiveness resulting from the exchange rate changes
that occurred in earlier years helped to keep export and import flows above
their cyclically expected level. This fact was particularly noticeable in the
exports of consumer goods, which had been increasing steadily from 1972
through 1974 and which remained fairly stable in the first 3 quarters of 1975
despite depressed consumption demand abroad.
In the services category of the balance of payments accounts, services other
than investment income showed a 5.9 percent annual rate of growth from
the fourth quarter of 1974 to the third quarter of 1975. Receipts of investment income from other than direct investments abroad declined slightly
during the same period. On the other hand, income from direct investments
abroad dropped sharply: the average for the first 3 quarters of 1975 was
roughly one-half the average of 1974. This drop is tied to what may be a
structural shift in favor of self-financing by overseas entities of U.S. firms.
69
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES
Real Federal purchases of goods and services declined 2.4 percent during
the year ending in the second quarter of 1975. In part, this resulted from a
rate of inflation that was higher than expected, and thus meant that
budgeted levels of nominal spending were translated into lower real purchases. As inflation slowed, real Federal purchases rose in the second half of
last year.
Real State and local government purchases increased 2.4 percent last
year, a somewhat slower rate than the average of the early 1970s, and a
much slower rate than the average of the postwar period. The slowing of the
rate of growth in the early 1970s below its postwar average was primarily
the result, of longer-run factors which are described in Chapter 1. In the
last 2 years, the depressing effects of the recession on receipts and the difficulties in borrowing encountered by some jurisdictions further reduced the
rate of growth of real outlays.
The growth of State and local purchases was sustained in 1975 by a large
rise in Federal grants-in-aid. The increase in grants contributed nearly half
the increase in total receipts—$10.3 billion in a total increase of $23.0 billion—even though grants account for less than one-quarter of total receipts.
PRICES, WAGES, AND PROFITS
PRICES
Inflation moderated in 1975 from the near-record rates of 1974 but remained very high by any other historical standard (Table 12). The slowing
of inflation in early 1975 was due both to the sharp reduction in aggregate
demand and to smaller increases in energy and food prices. From the fourth
quarter of 1974 to the fourth quarter of 1975 the implicit price deflator for
GNP rose 6.4 percent. This rate was 1.1 percentage point less than the rate
during, 1973 and only slightly more than one-half the rate during 1974.
The easing of inflation in 1975 was about the same when measured by the
deflator for nonfarm business gross product, which increased 7.0 percent during 1975 compared to 12.6 percent during 1974. The deflator for farm output
declined 3.1 percent during 1975, largely as a result of the sharp downturn
of farm product prices in the first quarter.
The behavior of some final demand deflators in 1975 is particularly noteworthy. After increasing approximately 27 percent in 1974, the
deflator for exports rose only 10 percent in 1975. This deceleration reflected the sharply reduced world prices of food grains, feed grains, and oilseeds in 1975. Although the price deflator for the fixed investment component of GNP rose at a 16 percent annual rate in the first quarter, it slowed
to less than 6 percent during the last half of the year. The persistence of high
inflation rates in investment goods during the first quarter reflected sharp
increases in prices of producer finished goods, particularly machinery and
transportation equipment, at the end of 1974 and early in 1975, as well as
rising residential construction costs.
70
TABLE 12.—Changes in selected price measures, 1973-75
[Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1973
j._
1974
19 75
1974 IV
IV
IV
1975
IV i
i
II
III
IV i
GNP implicit price deflator:
Total GNP
Business
Nonfarm___
Farm
11.4
11.6
12.6
-7.5
__ .
_
6.4
7.8
4.3
7.1
6.5
6.7
7.0
9.2
4.3
3.3
7.2
5.9
6.1
6.8
-3.1
12.2
-45.9
29.4
36.2
-7.5
Consumer price index:
All items
Food
Directly purchased energy 2
All other items
12.1
7.3
8.0
6.0
12.0
25.5
10.9
7.1
6.1
6.2
9.8
2.8
11.7
6.9
12.2
6.2
8.5
12.4
21.7
5.6
6.7
7.4
7.5
6.3
Wholesale price index:
All commodities
Farm products
Processed foods and feeds.
Industrial commodities
Energy 3
2
3
_. .
22.4
4.3
-4.4
-.1
4.3
-34.2
-17.0
21.8
27.1
57.4
-2.0
5.9
12.7
5.5
3.9
4.4
24.5
-.7
2.2
9.1
8.2
30.7
11.1
5.8
22.9
9.6
10.2
.4
10.5
15.5
preliminary.
Gas and electricity, fuel oil and coal, and gasoline and motor oil.
Fuels and related products and power.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Consumer Prices
The quarterly movements of the CPI roughly paralleled those of the GNP
deflator in 1975. During the first 6 months consumer prices increased at
approximately half the 12 percent annual rate during the last 6 months of
1974. In the third quarter of 1975 the rise in the CPI accelerated to
8.5 percent, largely because of increases in food and energy prices, but
then moderated somewhat in the fourth quarter. Prices increased in the
second half of 1975 at an annual rate of about 7 percent, considerably
less than the rate experienced in 1974.
Energy prices in the GPI accelerated rapidly in the first 3 quarters of
1975 before slowing in the fourth quarter. The rise in energy prices reflected
the effects of the imposition of import fees on crude oil, a 60-cent import fee
on refined petroleum products, and the pass-through of higher costs of energy
materials by utilities. Nevertheless the 12 percent rise in the energy price
component of the CPI for the year as a whole was much less than the 29 percent advance in 1974. Petroleum products remained under price controls
in 1975, although authority for economy-wide controls had expired in 1974.
Separate authority for petroleum price controls was extended temporarily
in September and November 1975 and then for 5 years in December.
Among CPI components, food prices showed the most significant deceleration in the first half of 1975, slowing from an annual rate of increase of 17.3
71
percent in the fourth quarter of 1974 to a 2.8 percent annual rate by the
second quarter of 1975. This behavior reflected sharply reduced prices at
the wholesale level. As a result of increases in the price of meats, especially
pork, and of fresh vegetables, the CPI food component accelerated in the
third quarter. In the fourth quarter, increases in food prices were smaller
than in the third, but were still above the average increase in the first half of
the year. Although the rate of increase in food prices slowed in 1975 from the
double-digit rates of the previous 2 years, it was more than twice as high as
the average yearly increase since 1947.
Wholesale Prices
Average prices of industrial commodities increased 5.9 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1974 to the fourth quarter of 1975, less than one-fourth the
27 percent rate during 1974. The price deceleration was evident in the
commodity groups comprising 95 percent of the industrial commodity index.
Wholesale energy prices rose 57 percent during 1974, but only 13 percent
during 1975. Price movements of industrial commodities during 1975 generally coincided with the dominant economic pattern of recession in the
first half and recovery in the second half. Seven of the 13 major commodity
groups showed seasonally adjusted price declines in the first or second quarter; prices in the metals and textile groups fell in both quarters. The
industrial commodity price index registered its lowest rate of increase in
the second quarter. The rate then more than doubled in the third quarter
and increased further in the fourth quarter to a 10.5 percent annual rate.
Such wide fluctuations in the rate of increase of wholesale industrial commodities are not unusual, particularly near a cyclical turning point.
After increasing about 12 percent during 1974, the index of farm products
and processed foods and feeds rose only 0.3 percent during 1975. Following
a decline in the first quarter, this index rose in the second and third quarters
because of reduced supplies of some livestock products and unexpectedly
high foreign demand for grains. In the fourth quarter, however, a record
U.S. grain crop put downward pressure on wholesale food prices.
Nonfood crude materials prices increased 1 percent during 1975 after a
31 percent rise during 1974 and a 15 percent average annual increase for
the past 5 years. These prices, however, fluctuated from month to month
during the year.
WAGES
The rate of increase in nominal wages slowed from 1974 to 1975. The
average hourly earnings index of all production workers in the private
nonfarm economy, adjusted to exclude the effects of interindustry shifts in
employment and overtime in manufacturing, decreased from an annual
rate of 9.3 percent during 1974 to 8.1 percent during 1975. Real wages,
which had been declining since the third quarter of 1973, began to rise in
72
the first quarter of 1975. For the last 3 quarters of 1975 real wages rose at
a 2 percent annual rate. The large decrease in real wages in 1974 was
partly the result of a much greater rate of inflation than was expected. The
sharp rise in unemployment from late 1974 to mid-1975, however, probably
had a depressing effect on nominal wage rates in 1975.
Wage increases for the 11 percent of the labor force who are covered
by major collective bargaining agreements (covering 1,000 or more workers)
exhibited a similar pattern (Table 13). In the second and third quarters
of 1975 the effective change in wages was slightly less than that of a year
earlier. The decline in the-effective wage rate change relative to 1974 was
not due to slower increases in first-year wage changes for new contracts, but
to a substantial decrease in the proportion of workers under major contracts
expiring in 1975. Wage increases due to escalator provisions were larger in
1975 than in 1974.
A broader measure of labor costs, compensation per employee hour in
the private nonfarm sector, covers all employees and includes supplements
to wages and salaries. The pattern of compensation per hour during the
last 2 years has also been similar to that of the adjusted hourly earnings
index.
TABLE 13.—Changes in major collective bargaining settlements, 1973-75
[Percent]
1975 i
197 4
Type of change and industry group
1S73
1974 19751
1
II
III
IV
1
II
III
IV
Wage settlements:
First-year wage change (annual
rate) .
5.8
9.8
10 2
7.1
9 2
11 2
10 3
12.5
9.8
10.0
11 5
Percent of workers covered by
current quarter settlements 2..
52
50
28
7
18
19
6
5
6
8
2
Effective wage rate changed
Total effective changes ...
7.0
9.4
8 6
1.3
3.0
3.4
1.6
1.7
2.1
3.3
15
Adjustment resulting from:
Current settlement
3.0
Prior settlement
_ . 2.7
1.3
Escalator provision
4.8
2.6
1.9
2.7
3 7
2.2
.3
.6
.3
1.6
.9
.5
2.0
.9
.5
.8
.3
.5
.6
.6
.4
I'.l
.3
l'.5
1.0
.5
.5
.4
7.3
10.3
8 4
14
3.5
3.0
2.0
1.8
2.1
2.8
1.6
7.0
4.8
8.3
9.1
9.1
8.1
1.3
.6
1.7
4.3
3.9
3.2
1.4
.8
1.9
.8
1.2
4.5
4.2
2.1
1.7
.6
7.4
6.3
6.4
7.6
10.3
7.0
9.5
9.1
6.3
1.3
1.4
1.0
1.0
3.7
1.9
4.7
3.1
2.5
.6
1.9
1.6
1.7
2.4
2.0
2.1
.7
.8
5.2
3.0
2.1
1.7
1.5
1.4
Manufacturing
Nonmanufacturing, excluding
contract construction
Construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale and retail trade
Services
1 Preliminary.
2 Percent of estimated number of workers under major collective bargaining settlements. Individual quarterly data for
1975 are based on preliminary estimates that do not add to the current total for the year.
s Effective wage rate changes are wage rate changes actually going into effect per worker under major contracts in the
respective quarters resulting from major collective bargaining settlements, made that calendar year, plus deferred increases in accordance with prior-year contracts plus escalator adjustments.
Note.—Data relate to settlements covering 1,000 or more workers in private nonfarm industries.
Effective wage rate adjustment for the year is the total of the four quarterly changes, except as noted.
Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
73
PRODUCTIVITY
Labor productivity in the private nonfarm sector increased 4.3 percent
during 1975 after dropping 3.0 percent during the previous year. Productivity declined at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 1975 and then
increased at an annual rate of 6.0 percent in the following 3 quarters (Table
14). This pattern is typical of business cycles (Table 15), in that labor productivity grows at a low rate or declines in a recession, increases sharply as
the recovery begins, and then increases at a slower rate as recovery continues.
The data in Table 15 suggest that the magnitude and the duration of the
decline in labor productivity in the recent downturn were greater than in
other postwar recessions, including the most severe previous recession of
1957-58.
During a downturn in economic activity, firms reduce current production
at a rate faster than they reduce hours worked. The reason is that there are
costs associated with hiring (or rehiring) and training workers, and some
workers on layoff may move to another area, or take a job with another firm
in the same area, and not be available when the layoff is over. In addition, a
decline in hours of work need not result in a proportionate decline in labor
costs, because some employer-paid fringe benefits like health insurance may
continue for several months after the start of a layoff. There is, therefore,
reluctance on the part of firms to adjust the work force fully during the initial
stages of a recession when they are uncertain about the extent and duration
of the downturn. This "retained" labor is not necessarily idle but may rather
be working at a slower rate or engaging in maintenance work that may
increase future output, In the most recent recession the cyclical adjustment
of employment may have been slower than is typical because of the great
uncertainty during 1974 about the future course of output.
As recovery begins, the currently employed workers return more intensively to production tasks. There is a less than proportionate increase in
employment so that output per hour worked increases sharply. As it beTABLE 14.—Changes in costs and productivity in the private nonfarm economy, 1974—75
[Percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Adjusted average hourly
earnings1
Quarter
1974: 1 _
11
6.8
.
...
.
10.1
10.7
Ill
IV
9.6
8.6
7.5
8.6
7.7
1975: 1
II
III.
IV
1
Compensation per hour
8.7
11.6
11.4
10.9
9.3
6.5
8.5
6.7
Output per
hour
Unit labor
costs
13.0
13.7
14.7
14.8
-3.8
-1.8
-2.9
-3.4
-.5
8.3
8.7
1.1
9.9
-1.6
-
2
5.6
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry shifts.
Note.—Data for adjusted hourly earnings relate to production or nonsupervisory workers; all other data relate to all
employees.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
74
TABLE 15.—Quarterly changes in labor productivity in postwar recessions, private nonfarm
economy
[Seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Recession year
Trough
quarter l
1948-70 recession years
average.
19491V....
1948-49 _.
1954
. .. 1954 III....
1958
195811
Percent change from previous quarter 2
T-4
T-l
Trough
T+l
T+2 T+3 T+4
1.9
1.3
2.1
3.9
4.0
8.3
3.1
2.2
1.1
5.4
3.5
4.6
9.2
-.8
16.2
.0
.5
-.5
.0
1.7
2.8
2.0
7.5
2.9
6.2
.0
.7
2.0
4.3
2.4
-1.2
9.1
6.1
5.0
.9
2.4
6.0
8.7
1.0
5.6
4.7
7.7
3.1
4.0
-2.0
8.7
1.1
1960-61
1961 1
1969-70
19701V....
-2.0
197511
-1.8
1974-75 recession
T-2
T-3
4.3
-3.4
-1.6
.3
-2.9
2.1
2.3
7.4
-3.4
-.6
-1.9
8.3
1
The following quarters are those designated as cyclical troughs by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER):
1949 IV, 1954 III, 1958 II, and 1961 I. Trough quarters of real GNP were used for 1970 IV and 1975 II as NBER has not
designated these quarters as cyclical troughs.
2
Quarters before trough are minus and quarters after trough are plus.
Note.—Data relate to all employees.
Sources: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and National Bureau of Economic Research.
comes clearer that the recovery is widespread and will be sustained, employers are more willing to incur the costs of expanding employment. Further increases in output are then accompanied by increased hours of
work, and measured labor productivity changes converge to the long-term
trend rate.
UNIT LABOR COSTS
The change in output per hour was the most important determinant of
the change in the unit labor cost of output in 1975 (Table 14). Unit labor
costs in the nonfarm economy rose at extraordinary rates during 1974 as
productivity declined throughout the year. Severe employment cuts in the
first half of 1975 and then sharply rising output in the third quarter raised
productivity changes to well above trend. Unit labor costs actually declined
in the second and third quarters. Unit labor costs rose 5.6 percent in the
fourth quarter as the growth of productivity slowed. This rate of increase of
unit labor costs appears to be near the longer-term trend given current
rates of increase in wages.
PROFITS OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS
Although profits before tax declined, some significant measures of corporate profitability improved in 1975 (Table 16). Operating profits—
corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments—increased by 27.7 percent, from $63.2 billion in 1974 to $80.7 billion
in 1975. Largely because of increasing prices and decreasing unit labor
costs, the share of operating profits in the net product of nonfinancial
75
TABLE 16.—Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations, 1973—75
[Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1975
Item
1973
1974
1975
1
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments
II
III
75.9
63 2
80 7
55.3
75.7
92.7
..
-18.4
1.6
92.8
-38 5
-2.1
103.8
-11 5
-5.6
97.7
-13.7
-4.1
73.1
-6.6
-4.5
86.8
-9.9
-5.9
108.5
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as percent of net domestic
product
11.1
8.7
10.4
7.6
10.0
11.7
Inventory valuation adjustment
Capital consumption adjustment
Profits before tax
Addendum:
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
corporations rose markedly, from 7.6 percent in the first quarter to 10.0
percent in the second, reaching a level higher than the 8.7 percent share
for 1974 as a whole. This increase of the profit share accounted for $20.3
billion of the $20.4-billion annual rate increase in profits in the second
quarter. In the third quarter, the share increased to 11.7 percent, accounting
for $15.1 billion of the $17.0-billion annual rate rise in profits. Another
measure of the share of income accruing to capital may be obtained by
expressing net interest and operating profits less profits tax liability as a
proportion of net domestic product. This share had declined almost continuously from 12J/2 percent in 1965 to 7 percent in 1974 before increasing
rapidly to over 11J/2 percent by the third quarter of 1975.
Despite a decline in profits before tax of nonfinancial corporations, aftertax profits changed little from 1974 because of the provisions of the Tax
Reduction Act of 1975. The act reduced general corporate taxes by $4%
billion but raised $1% billion in new revenues by curtailing percentage depletion and restricting foreign tax credits. The revenue-raising features of the
Tax Reduction Act chiefly affected the petroleum industry. The corporate
tax reductions helped to reduce the effective total tax rate on domestic nonfinancial corporate profits from 41.1 percent in 1974 to 38.2 percent in 1975.
The recovery of operating profits and rapid disinvestment in inventories
during the first half of the year allowed nonfinancial corporations to reduce
their dependence upon external financing and to alter the structure of their
liabilities. As Table 17 shows, corporations borrowed at an annual rate
of $19.2 billion through the first 3 quarters of 1975, a rate far below
those of the previous 2 years. In addition, corporations were able to
lengthen the maturity of their debt by reducing bank loans at an annual
rate of $20.1 billion in the first 3 quarters of the year, the largest
decline in loan demand during the postwar period. Finally, some corpora-
76
TABLE 17.—Net funds raised in financial markets by nonfinancial corporations, 1973-75
IBillions of dollars;seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1975
Item
1070
1Q7A
1
Total funds raised
Net new equity issues
Debt instruments
Tax-exempt bonds
Corporate bonds.
Mortgages
Bank loansl
Other 2
77.1
67.2
4.1
7.4
59.7
73.0
1.8
9.2
1.6
19.7
10.9
29.9
11.0
16.1
30.6
2.0
II
III
27.2
29.3
29.8
7.7
12.9
16.4
21.7
19.4
1.7
40.1
3.2
30.5
8.1
2.4
21.2
2.5
6.3
7.9
—26.4
—20.0
—13.8
1.5
—3.7
4.1
1 Not elsewhere classified.
2
Consists of commercial paper, acceptances, finance company loans, and U.S. Government loans.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
tions relied more heavily on equity financing in 1975 as new issues reached
an annual rate of $9.6 billion in the first 3 quarters, the highest level since
1972.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME
MAINTENANCE
EMPLOYMENT
Total civilian employment estimated from household survey data averaged 84.8 million in 1975, 1.1 million below the level of the previous year
(Table 18). From a peak of 86.2 million in the third quarter of 1974, employment fell to a low of 84.3 million in the first quarter of 1975 and then
rose to 85.2 million by the fourth quarter.
The number of nonfarm payroll jobs estimated from establishment survey data averaged 77.0 million in 1975. This represents a 1.4-million drop
from the 1974 level, a slightly greater decline than the drop in employment
on the household basis. Nearly all of the change in payroll employment
from its peak in the third quarter of 1974 to its trough in the second quarter
of 1975 was in the goods-producing sector, where the number of jobs declined by 2.5 million (Table 19). The reduction in employment was substantial in all of the major goods-producing industries, except mining, where
employment continued to increase. There was some recovery in employment
in the goods-producing sector in the second half of the year, although by
year-end the level remained substantially below its peak in the third quarter
of 1974. Employment in the service-producing industries remained stable
at about 54 million during the period when goods-producing employment
declined. It then increased during the second half of 1975.
The decline and subsequent rise in payroll employment in manufacturing
from the third quarter of 1974 to the end of 1975 are reflected in data on
labor turnover (Table 20). The seasonally adjusted layoff rate, layoffs per
100 workers, doubled in the fourth quarter of 1974 compared to the pre77
597-578 O - 76 - 6
TABLE 18.—Labor market indicators, 1957-58 and 1974-75
[Seasonally adjusted]
1975
Indicator
1958
1957
1974
1975
1974
IV
'
II
111
IV
Millions of persons
Civilian labor force
Employment
Unemployment
66.9
64.1
_
2.9
67.6
63.0
4.6
91.0
85.9
5.1
92.6
84.8
7.8
91.7
85.5
91.8
84.3
6.1
7.5
92.5
84.4
8.1
93.1
85.1
8.0
93.2
85.2
7.9
Percent »
Civilian labor force participation
ratez
59.6
59.5
61.2
61.2
61.3
61.1
61.3
61.4
61.2
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
All civilian workers
Unemployed 15 weeks or
longer^
4.3
6.8
5.6
8.5
6.7
8.1
8.7
8.6
8.5
.8
2.1
1.0
2.7
1.3
2.0
2.7
3.1
3.1
3.6
6.2
3.8
6.7
4.9
6.2
7.0
7.0
7.0
2.8
4.1
5.1
6.1
2.7
5.5
5.1
8.0
3.5
6.5
4.7
8.0
5.5
8.4
5.4
7.9
Demographic groups
Men 20 years and over ..
Married men, spouse present
Women 20 years and over
Both sexes 16-19 years
11.6
15.9
16.0
19.9
17.6
19.8
3.7
8.6
11.1
20.2
20.2
5.1
7.9
19.5
Occupation
White-collar workers
Blue-collar workers.
1.9
6.2
3.1
10.2
3.3
6.7
4.7
11.7
4.5
5.0
12.6
4.7
12.1
4.8
11.2
Industry
Nonagricultural private wage
and salary workers 4
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Transportation and public
utilities
Wholesale and retail trade.
Finance and service industries
Government workers
Agricultural wage and salary
workers
4.9
10.9
5.1
4.9
5.3
7.9
15.3
9.3
5.7
10.6
9.2
18.1
10.9
11.3
10.4
8.7
7.0
13.6
7.8
7.6
8.1
16.6
10.5
10.4
10.7
9.7
9.3
20.1
11.9
12.4
11.1
19.6
11.1
11.8
10.1
9.1
17.4
10.2
10.6
7.7
5.7
5.4
6.2
3.3
4.5
6.1
6.8
3.2
6.4
5.6
8.7
3.8
7.4
5.5
8.3
6.1
8.7
5.7
8.7
5.2
9.3
3.6
1.9
4.9
2.5
4.6
3.0
6.6
4.0
5.2
3.3
6.3
3.6
6.7
4.2
6.4
4.1
7.0
4.2
6.9
10.6
10.3
7.3
10.3
7.9
10.1
10.3
10.1
9.6
11.1
1 Unemployment as percent of civilian labor force in group specified, except as noted.
2 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.
3 Unemployment as percent of total civilian labor force.
4
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
vious 3 quarters and was substantially in excess of the average layoff rate
of 1.4 from 1963 to 1973. The layoff rate remained at unprecedented levels
until production began to rise rapidly in the third quarter of 1975. By the
last quarter, however, layoffs had declined to more normal levels.
Much of the unemployment associated with job layoffs in a recession is
followed by reemployment in the same firm. While the total accession rate
declined in manufacturing during the recession, the rehire rate increased
sharply: from an average of 1.0 in 1974to 1.8 in the first and second quarters
of 1975. From 1963 to 1973 rehires were 27 percent of accessions, but in
1975 they were 44 percent.
78
TABLE 19.—Nonagricultural payroll employment, by industry, 1974—75
[Millions of persons; seasonally adjusted]
19 74
19 75
Industry
III
Total nonagricultural employment
Goods producing
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Nondurable goods....
Contract construction
Mining
1
IV
II
III
IV i
78.7
78.3
76.9
76.4
77.0
77.6
24.8
24.1
22.8
22.3
22.4
22.7
20.1
12.0
19.6
11.6
18.5
10.9
18.1
10.6
18.3
10.6
18.5
10.7
8.0
3.8
8.2
3.9
.7
7.6
3.6
7.6
3.4
.7
7.7
3.4
.7
7.8
3.4
.8
Service producing .. ... ..
54.0
54.2
54.1
54.1
54.6
55.0
Private 2
Government
Federal
State and local
39.8
14.2
39.8
14.4
39.5
15.0
39.4
14.7
39.8
14.8
40.0
15.0
..
2.7
2.7
2.7
11.5
11.6
2.7
2.8
12.0
11.8
2.8
12.2
12.1
1 Preliminary.
2
Transportation and public utilities; wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and services.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
TABLE 20.—Labor turnover rates in manufacturing, 1963—75
[Per 100 employees; seasonally adjusted]
Accession rates
Separation rates
Period
New hires
Total
Total
Quits
Layoffs
1963-73 average
4.4
3.2
4.4
2.2
1.4
1974 average
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.2
3.3
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.2
2.2
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.5
5.5
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.1
1.2
2.4
3.6
3.3
3.6
4.0
3.6
2.0
1.5
1.8
2.4
2.3
4.3
5.3
4.2
3.7
3.9
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.6
2.2
2.9
2.4
1.6
1.7
II
Ill
IV
1975 average 1
II
III
IVJ
i11-month average for the year and 2-month average for fourth quarter.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The unemployment rate averaged 8.5 percent in 1975, sharply above the
5.6 percent rate in 1974 and the previous post-World War II high of 6.8
percent in 1958. The unemployment rate increased rapidly, from 5.6 percent
in the third quarter of 1974 to 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 1975, and
reached a peak of 8.7 percent in the second quarter. By the fourth quarter
the rate had declined to 8.5 percent.
As in past recessions, the sharp rise in unemployment was widespread
among major demographic groups (Table 18). The rate for married men,
who typically have the lowest unemployment rate, increased from 2.7
79
percent in 1974 to 5.1 percent in 1975. Most other demographic groups experienced a similar or slightly larger percentage point increase in unemployment rates, but a substantially smaller relative increase.
The increase in the unemployment rate was largely a consequence of
unemployment arising from the loss of a job, particularly among adult
men and women (Table 21). The unemployment rate for job leavers (unemployed persons who quit their jobs, expressed as a percentage of the
labor force) was essentially unchanged from 1974. Unemployed new
entrants and reentrants increased as a percentage of the labor force in 1975.
The increase in the unemployment rate among labor force entrants
likely reflected a greater difficulty in finding a job, that is, a longer duration of unemployment rather than a greater influx of entrants, since the
new-hire rate declined and the labor force participation rate did not change
from 1974 to 1975.
There was a large increase in the number of persons unemployed 15
weeks or longer as a percentage of the labor force. The long-duration unemployment rate increased from 1.0 percent in 1974 to 2.7 percent in 1975, a
much higher level than the-previous postwar peak of 2.2 percent in 1961.
This sharp increase compared to past recessions was due partly to the
severity and duration of the most recent recession and partly to wider
coverage and longer duration of unemployment compensation benefits than
in the past.
Under legislation enacted in December 1974 and amended in March 1975,
the maximum duration of unemployment compensation benefits for workers
covered under the regular Federal and State programs was increased from
39 weeks to 65 weeks by adding a 26-week program called Federal supplemental benefits (FSB). This program expires at the end of March 1977.
Another temporary program, special unemployment assistance (SUA), was
also enacted in December 1974 to provide unemployment compensation
coverage for an estimated 12 million wage and salary workers employed in
industries not covered by the regular Federal and State programs. These
TABLE 21.— Unemployment rates by reason for unemployment, age, and sex, 1973—75
[Percent of civilian labor force)
Both sexes 16 to
19 years
Women 20 years
and over
Men 20 years
and over
Reason for unemployment
1973
Total unemployment rate
Job separation
Job losers
Job leavers
Previously out of labor force
Reentrants
New entrants
1974
1975
1974
1975
3.2
3.8
6.7
4.8
5.5
8.0
2.4
1.9
.5
3.0
2.5
.5
5.6
5.1
.6
2.5
1.6
.9
3.1
2.1
1.0
5.1
4.0
1.1
.8
.7
.1
.8
.7
.1
1.1
1.0
.1
2.3
2.0
.3
2.4
2.1
.3
2.9
2.6
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
1973
80
1973
14.5
4.1
2.4
1.7
10.3
4.3
6.0
1974
16.0
5.0
3.1
2.0
10.9
4.9
6.0
1975
19.9
6.8
5.1
1.7
13.1
6.0
7.1
are largely State and local government workers, farm workers, domestics,
and employees of small nonprofit organizations. In June the duration of
benefits under SUA was extended from 26 to 39 weeks.
There is now considerable research suggesting that a longer maximum
duration of unemployment benefits tends to lengthen the duration of actual
unemployment by discouraging some from withdrawing from the labor force
and some from accepting reemployment in a less attractive job. While the
exact magnitude of any increase in measured unemployment is unclear,
these studies suggest that interpretation of unemployment statistics has become more complex.
THE MITIGATING EFFECTS OF THE INCOME TRANSFER SYSTEM
Unemployment compensation and other income maintenance programs
have had an important dual role as automatic stabilizers and as a means of
providing income to those who have lost earnings because of the recession.
Data on the major programs are given in Table 22.
Largely because of these programs, per capita real disposable income
did not decline in 1975 despite a decline in real output per capita. Because the number and size of countercyclical programs have increased
over time, the extent to which consumer income was maintained was
greater in this recession than in past ones. In this recession, per capita real
disposable income fell from peak to trough by one-half of 1 percent, compared to a drop of 4 percent in per capita real disposable income net of
transfers. By contrast, in the 1958 recession per capita real disposable income
fell by 2 percent from peak to trough, while per capita real disposable income
net of transfers declined 3 percent.
The extent to which transfer payments replace family earnings lost as
a result of unemployment varies with eligibility for the different programs
as well as with past earnings. It has been estimated for 1975 that a family
of four, headed by an insured unemployed worker who had previously
worked at the minimum wage, could be entitled to about 90 percent of previous after-tax earnings through unemployment compensation, public assistance, and food stamps. For a head of family who had earned high wages,
however, benefits replace a smaller percentage of after-tax earnings. For
example, it has been estimated that an unemployed worker who earned
$400 a week before taxes could receive benefits that replace about one-third
of his after-tax earnings.
The most important countercyclical program is unemployment compensation, which in the first 10 months of 1975 paid an estimated average weekly
benefit of about $70 per worker. As of January 1976, the maximum weekly
benefit ranged from $60 in Indiana and Mississippi to $139 in Washington,
D.C. As unemployment increased during the recession, the ratio of beneficiaries to persons unemployed rose sharply, from 33 percent in the fourth
quarter of 1973 to 69 percent in the second quarter of 1975. This pattern
is partly due to changes in the composition of unemployment that usually
81
TABLE 22.—Income transfer programs, 1973-75
1)74
19 75
1973
Unit
Program
IV
1
II
III
IV
1
II
III
8 3
8 0
7 g
5 5
4 8
5 2
4 0
12
IV
Unemployment:
Millions _
4 0
5.0
4.6
5.1
5 6
Beneficiaries: Total
Permanent programs
FSBandSUA2
Millions^
1.3
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.9
2.3
5.1
2 3
4 7
Benefit payments: Total3
Permanent programs .__
FSB and SUA
Billions of dollars *.
. .do
Total number of persons
7 2
Unemployment Compensation:
do
13
.4
do
4.1
4.1
7.5
7.5
6.8
6.8
6.1
6.1
7.8
7.8
17.3
16.2
1.1
do
.7
19.0
16.7
2 3
18.4
14 7
3 7
Food Stamp Program:
Beneficiaries
Benefit payments
Aid to Families with Dependent
Children:
Beneficiaries' Total
Unemployed fathers
Benefit payments 3
Millions«
Billions of dollars4
12.5
Millions «
10.8
do
Billions of dollars4
2.3
13.1
3.2
10.9
.4
.4
7.4
13.6
14.2
3.2
3.5
10 9
10.8
15.9
4.0
10.9
18.7
4.9
11.3
.4
.4
.4
.5
7.6
7.6
8.0
8.4
8.9
30.0
19.2
30.2
19.3
19.2
18.6
5 0
5 2
11 3
11 3
8.9
9.3
5
18.7
5.2
.5
Old-age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance:
Beneficiaries: Total 6
Retired workers _ _
Disabled persons and
beneficiaries
Millions s
do
3.6
3.7
Benefit payments 7
Billions of dollars 4 _ 50.8
53.0
56.6
Millionss
Billions of dollars4
10.0
10.4
12.0
11.2
12.0
13.6
14.8
Billions of dollars 4
10.1
11.2
12.2
12.5
13.7
14.9
15.4
do.
29.7
19.0
3.5
30.4
19.5
30.7
19.6
3.7
58.7
3.9
56.8
31.1
19.8
4.0
60.6
31.3
19.9
4.1
63.0
31.5
20.1
4.2
31.9
20.3
4.3
67.1
68.5
15.5
17.2
Medicaid:
Beneficiaries
Benefit payments
7.3
7.3
7.7
7.3
8.2
8.8
9.0
Medicare:
Benefit payments
Supplemental Security Income:
Beneficiaries
Benefit payments
Millions5
Billions of dollars4
3.3
4.9
3.5
5 1
3.8
5.5
4.0
5.6
4.1
5.7
4.2
5.8
4.3
6.1
1 Weekly average.
2 Federal supplemental benefits (FSB) and special unemployment assistance (SUA).
a Includes State as well as Federal payments.
4
Annual rate.
«Monthly average.
• Total also includes survivors and special beneficiaries 72 years and older.
7 In current payment status.
Sources: Department of Agriculture, Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, and Department of Labor.
occur during a downturn and partly to legislated program extensions (FSB
and SUA). Largely because of these new programs a larger proportion of
the unemployed received benefits in 1975 than in any prior recession. The
new programs have therefore more than offset the secular decline in the
proportion of the unemployed receiving benefits (estimated to be 40 percent
in 1956 and 34 percent in 1973), a decline which is attributable to the disproportionate increase in the share of unemployment caused by entry into
the labor force. The proportion of the unemployed receiving benefits was
estimated to be 59 percent in 1958 and 66 percent in the first 3 quarters of
1975.
82
In the second quarter of 1975 there were about 19.2 million food stamp
recipients, 54 percent more than in the fourth quarter of 1973. Approximately half the increase is attributable to the recession and half to the
extension of the program to areas which had not previously offered food
stamps (including Puerto Rico, which added 1.5 million new recipients) and
to increases in participation among formerly eligible households. A survey
taken by the Bureau of the Census in April 1975 showed that 18 percent
of the families in which the head of the household was unemployed were
receiving food stamps. Among families with an unemployed head of household and income under $5,000, 35 percent received stamps. The average
monthly food stamp bonus (the Federal subsidy), which is not taxed as
income, was $84 for families with an unemployed head of household. A further discussion of income maintenance programs is contained in Chapter 3.
ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS
The economy continued to adjust to higher world oil prices during 1975,
though at a rate constrained by Government action. Price controls were
maintained on some domestically produced crude oil and natural gas liquids,
but a special fee (later removed) imposed on imported crude oil and petroleum products raised the prices received for uncontrolled oil. The net
effect of these actions was to hold average oil prices in the United States
below world levels, reduce the total revenues of domestic petroleum producers, slow the rate of increase in petroleum product prices to consumers,
increase petroleum imports, and retard structural adjustment to higher
world oil prices.
The relative price of energy continued to increase, but not at the rate
which brought the adjustment problems of 1973 and 1974. The consumption of energy remained below its 1973 peak and well below its previous
long-term growth path. Long-term adjustments in the capital stock toward
lower use of petroleum were in evidence. Output of oil and natural gas continued to decline, bituminous coal production reached an all-time high,
and nuclear power production again rose substantially. The Energy Policy
and Conservation Act, discussed in Chapter 1, was enacted late in the year.
PRICES
The price of domestically produced petroleum products was affected by
price ceilings on some of the crude oil entering refineries and by margin
controls at all processing and marketing stages. Approximately 60 percent
of the domestically produced crude entering refineries was controlled at a
wellhead price of about $5.25 per barrel, bringing the blended price of
domestic crude some $5 to $6 per barrel below the price of imported crude
oil. Movements in the price of petroleum products were largely determined
by changes in the composite cost of all crude, imported and domestic (Table
23). That cost rose about 19 percent in the 12 months ending October 1975,
largely because of the special import fee.
83
TABLE 23.—Refiner acquisition cost of crude petroleum, 1973-75
Cost (per barrel)
Month
1973: September. ._
October
November
December
1974' January
February
March
April
_
Imported
Domestic
$5 44
6 54
$4.54
4 91
6 49
8 22
$5 00
5' $5
_
.
..
-
7 46
June
8.57
8.68
9.13
9.44
9.45
9 59
12' 45
12 73
12.72
13 02
13 06
July
August
September
October
November
December
9.30
9.17
9.13
9.22
9.41
9.28
12 75
12.68
12 53
12.44
12.53
12 82
9.48
7.78
8.37
8.48
8.49
8.59
.
.^
Mav
.
May
9.91
9.83
9,79
June
10.33
12.77
13.05
13.28
13.26
13.27
14.15
10.57
10.81
10.79
10.95
14.03
14.25
14.04
14.66
1975: January
February
March
April
July
August
September
October1
1
Composite
10.09
.
.
..
. .
..
6
7
7
7
7
7
72
08
05
21
26
20
7 19
7.20
7 18
7 26
7.46
7 39
8 29
8.38
8.23
8.33
8.33
Preliminary.
Source: Federal Energy Administration.
The average price of coal sold under long-term contract continued to increase during 1975, but the price of coal sold in spot markets (WPI for coal)
declined substantially from the peaks reached during the coal strike of late
1974. Movements in the average price of all coal are reflected in the prices
paid for coal by steam electric plants. Those prices reached a peak of 90
cents per million B.t.u. in November 1974. The average price was only
81 cents per million B.t.u. in the first 8 months of 1975, lower than the
previous peak but still higher than the 71 cents per million B.t.u. average for 1974. Coal used for electricity generation still commands a price less
than half that of its major substitute, residual fuel oil, when they are compared on an energy-equivalent price basis. Legal, technical, and utility
capacity constraints on the use of coal have prevented further displacement
of oil in the utility market.
Natural gas prices in 1975 continued to be dominated by regulatory institutions and by the long-term contracts characteristic of gas sales. Regulated
gas prices rose pursuant to actions of the Federal Power Commission which
increased the base ceiling rate for 1975 to 51 cents per thousand cubic feet
of natural gas that had begun to flow in interstate commerce after December 31, 1972. The rate was 43 cents from June 1974 until early December of
that year, when the rates were revised. Additionally, special provisions designed to induce movement of more gas into interstate regulated markets to
meet emergency conditions brought some increase in average regulated
84
prices. The prices remained well below the market clearing level, however,
leading to continuation of the natural gas shortage in the interstate pricecontrolled market. The average price paid by interstate pipelines for gas
produced in the United States rose from 27 cents per thousand cubic feet
in September 1974 to 37 cents in September 1975. The average price of
imported gas entering the regulated interstate pipeline system, about 5 percent of consumption, rose from 59 cents to $1.41 per thousand cubic feet
over the same period. The unregulated natural gas market—primarily gas
consumed within its State of origin—also experienced price increases. The
major increases in the price of unregulated new gas contracts occurred in
1974, but the average price of gas sold in unregulated markets continued
to rise because a larger proportion of it was sold at the higher prices, as old
agreements expired or were renegotiated and as depletion occurred in reserves sold under lower-priced contracts.
Continued advances in the wholesale price of energy (Table 24) carried
through to consumers, but the increases to consumers were smaller than in
1974. The price of gasoline to consumers rose 6 cents per gallon, or about
11 percent, in the 12 months ending in December 1975, while fuel oil went up
9 percent. The price of residential electrical service rose 9 percent and that of
residential gas service 20 percent during the same period (Table 25).
TABLE 24.—Changes in wholesale prices
of all commodities and selected fuels and power,
1966-75
[Percent change; seasonally unadjusted annual rates]
Selected fuels and power
Period
All
commodities
Coal
Natural
gas
Refined
petroleum
products
Electric
power
Average annual change:
2.2
3.8
13.1
5.6
19.8
12.5
1.6
5.8
9.6
0.7
3.0
21.8
0.7
6.2
7.0
1973: 1
II
ill
IV
20.9
20.6
17.6
3.5
14.6
16.0
4.9
36.6
5.9
13.5
13.4
21.6
25.4
35.4
14.2
80.6
12.2
5.5
7.0
15.9
1974: 1
II
III
IV
29.4
15.0
31.3
14.8
37.0
125.5
75.2
67.3
18.6
11.8
35.6
48.4
213.4
69.6
21.8
-6.4
42.7
50.0
27.3
16.8
.0
4.3
8.8
4.4
2.1
-19.4
-9.6
-9.0
63.5
39.3
8.3
4.2
17.9
34.1
23.0
2.8
11.7
1966 to 1969
1969tol972._.
1972 to 1973
Change from preceding quarter:
1975: 1
II
Ill
IV
...
example, the first-quarter prices as used in the above table are the reported indexes for March through May for natural
gas, and February through April for refined petroleum products and electric power.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
85
TABLE 25.—Changes in consumer prices of all items and energy items, 1965-75
[Percent change; seasonally unadjusted annual rates]
All
items
Pprinrl
Energy
All
items
less
energy
Total *
Electricity
Fuel oil 2
Gasoline 3
Gas
Average annual change:
1966 to 1969
1969 to 1972
1972 to 1973
.
. .
4.1
4.5
6.2
43
4.6
61
2.1
3.1
80
1.2
5.0
50
2.8
3.4
15 4
26
.9
98
0 9
60
46
5.8
9.0
9.1
9.9
58
8.9
9.4
8.5
82
10.5
6.1
27 8
9.3
5.0
2.9
86
22.6
17.3
12.1
93 3
4.4
16.8
9.3
31 1
87
1.3
15 0
11.5
11.8
13.0
12.0
8.4
10 3
13.1
12.9
68.7
33 6
10.3
-.2
34.4
27.1
14.4
12.5
171. 8^
23.0
18.3
8.7
90.8
49 3
4.7
-15.4
17.8
11 9
14.4
20.7
7.5
6.5
8.8
65
7.5
6.0
8.1
66
9.6
12.4
20.3
52
19.6
4.8
13.0
3.8
.4
1.3
13.5
19.6
2.3
15.2
33.3
-2.9
27.3
24.4
7.7
20.2
Change from preceding quarter:
1973- 1
II
Ill
IV
..
1974- 1
||
III
IV
1975- |
if
Ill
IV
. .
.
.
1 Also includes coal and motor oil, not shown separately.
2 Fuel oil No. 2.
' Regular and premium gasoline.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CONSUMPTION
The combination of increasing relative prices of energy (for the third consecutive year), a low level of economic activity, mild winter weather, and
conservation measures left energy consumption in 1975 lower than in
1974. In 1974 energy consumption fell for the first time since 1958; there is
no previous record of energy consumption's remaining below previous peak
levels for 2 consecutive years.
The total effect of higher relative energy prices on energy consumption
has not yet been felt because adjustments in energy use patterns and in
capital stock are not yet complete. For example, 1974 model automobiles
averaged an estimated rated 13.9 miles per gallon, while 1975 model automobiles are estimated to have averaged a rated 15.6 miles per gallon. The 1976
models will probably be even more fuel efficient, averaging a rated 17.6 miles
per gallon according to estimates. Motor vehicle fuel consumption, however,
responds to the average composition of the total vehicle fleet, which is still
dominated by automobiles produced before energy prices rose.
The low level of economic activity in 1975 reinforced price effects in restraining energy use. Conversely, the expected recovery of 1976 is likely
to lead to growth in energy consumption despite the continued restraining
influence of past increases in its price.
The consumption of electric power rose only about 2 percent in 1975 and
0.4 percent in 1974, much below the 7 percent annual increase for the previous 10 years. This slowdown in demand growth has contributed to the decision of some firms to delay completion of additional generating capacity and
86
has brought about a reassessment of future industry capacity requirements.
How greatly electricity consumption will be affected by the higher relative
price of electricity is not yet known. Also unknown is the extent to which the
movement will continue toward peak-load pricing of electric service, and how
much this movement will affect generating capacity requirements and the
optimal mix of generating equipment. It is expected, however, that the results of the change will be toward reducing the quantity of fossil fuel consumed per unit of electricity generated and shifting the mix of energy sources
toward coal and nuclear power.
Petroleum consumption did not increase despite some substitution of
petroleum for natural gas. The increased price of petroleum, lagged effects
of earlier price increases, the low level of economic activity, and a milder
winter explain this consumption pattern (Table 26).
The only unlocalized fuel shortage during 1975 was of natural gas. The
shortage was greater in 1975 than before, despite relatively warm weather
and the recession. The quantity of gas that would have been consumed at
then existing prices, if that gas had been available, is unknown because
potential consumers have been denied access to supplies. However, the
quantity which was not delivered by interstate pipelines despite contractual
requirements to do so is reported to the Federal Power Commission (FPC).
Curtailments of firm (guaranteed) supplies amounted to 17 percent of
requirements by the reporting pipelines in the 12 months ending August
1975, compared to 10 percent during the 12 months ending August 1974.
The FPC expects these curtailments to reach 22 percent in the 12 months
ending August 1976. When curtailments of interruptible (nonguaranteed)
supplies are considered, the proportion of requirements curtailed rose from
38 percent in the earlier period to 52 percent in the 12 months ending in
TABLE 26.—Gross consumption of energy by major source, 1965—75
Total energy
consumption
Percent of total energy consumption
Year
Amount
(quadrillion
Btu's)
Percent
change 1
Petroleum
Total
Natural
gas
Coal
Hydropower
Nuclear
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
53.3
56.4
58.3
61.8
65.0
4.1
5.8
3.3
6.0
5.2
1CO.O
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
43.6
43.2
43.5
43.8
43.8
30.2
30.9
31.3
31.7
32.3
22.3
22.1
21.0
20.5
19.6
3.9
3.7
4.0
3.8
4.1
0.1
.1
.1
.2
.2
1970
1971.
1972
1973
19742
67.1
68.7
71.9
74.8
73.2
3.3
2.3
4.7
3.9
-2.1
1CO.O
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
44.0
44.5
45.8
46.6
45.7
32.8
33.2
32.0
30.4
30.1
18.9
17.6
17.3
17.8
18.1
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.0
4.5
.3
.6
.8
1.2
1.6
19753
72.0
-1.6
100.0
46.0
28.5
18.5
4.5
2.5
1
2
3
Based on unrounded data.
Preliminary.
Preliminary estimate by the Council of Economic Advisers.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines (except as noted).
87
August 1975. Lower gas use fpr space heating and greater than expected
success in filling storage will probably reduce the actual firm curtailments
from those projected for the 12 months ending August 1976.
Petroleum inventories were adequate to meet normal emergencies
throughout 1975. Inventories of natural gas liquids, especially propane, were
at record highs toward the end of 1975, and no shortages were anticipated.
Coal stocks were satisfactory after the buildup period following the 1974
strike. Interstate pipelines reported that working natural gas storage balances
at the start of the 1975-76 winter heating season were nearly 10 percent
higher than at the outset of the previous heating season.
Unfortunately the adequate petroleum inventory position which existed
in 1975 is fragile. Petroleum inventories may be drawn down rather quickly
in response to a change in price expectations or to a change in conditions in
the world oil market. There is little incentive for commercial firms to maintain inventories solely for use during an embargo because the emergency
allocation and pricing authorities granted by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 take away much of the potential profit from doing so.
PRODUCTION
Investment in the domestic energy industry continued to grow in response
to the higher relative prices of energy over the past 3 years. The uncertainty
about prospective rates of return that resulted from the lack of a settled
and supportive Government policy undoubtedly kept investment flows below
the limits set by available manpower and equipment. In contrast to late
1973 and 1974, there were no reports of widespread shortages of essential
equipment and supplies, and the few spot shortages were minor.
Crude oil production in 1975 totaled just over 3 billion barrels, nearly
5 percent less than in 1974 and 13 percent less than the peak production of
1970. Marketed production of natural gas in 1975 is estimated to be 11 percent lower than its 1973 peak. Preliminary estimates show a 5 percent decline in the production of natural gas liquids in 1975 from the 1974 figure.
The level of exploration and development drilling continued to rise,
but wells drilled increased at only roughly half the 19 percent increase
of 1974 over 1973, and wells drilled during 1975 amounted to only 60
percent of those drilled during 1956, the record drilling year. Output
responds only slowly to changes in drilling rates, however, and the recent increase has not been large enough to prevent the continued
decline in the production of crude oil and natural gas. Domestic petroleum output may stabilize or even rise in 1977 or 1978 when North Slope
Alaskan reserves begin to produce, but no turnaround can be expected
before then. North Slope Alaskan natural gas resources will not be produced
before the 1980s, when access to pipelines may be available. Domestic natural gas production will probably decline at least until then. Oil and gas
production rates at the end of this decade, however, will be strongly influenced by Government policy and by price behavior during 1976 and 1977.
Consequently, pricing decisions under the recently enacted Energy Policy
and Conservation Act will have an important effect on oil supplies, just as
action to decontrol the price of natural gas will bring forth increasing quantities of this fuel—especially to the interstate market. The pattern of fuel
production since 1963 is shown in Chart 2.
Bituminous and lignite coal production reached an all-time high of 640
million tons during 1975, surpassing the 631 million tons of 1947. Output of
the bituminous coal industry rose 6 percent over 1974. The labor contract of late 1974 did not eliminate strikes—unauthorized walkouts idled
some mines for several weeks. Output per hour worked continued to decline.
Nevertheless record production was achieved, a consequence of high levels of
output from established mines and continued production during much of the
year from high-cost mines that were opened or reopened in response to the
coal price increases of 1973 and 1974. Progress toward full exploitation of
Western low-sulfur coal reserves fell below expectations, partly because of
legal actions that slowed development and partly because of the moratorium
on leasing of Federal coal lands.
Output of the other major sources of energy—nuclear power plants and
hydroelectric generating facilities—was constrained by capacity limitations
and operating problems. Hydropower and nuclear power represent about 25
percent of the electric power produced in the United States. The nuclear
component of the total is growing rapidly, and its output approached 9
percent of U.S. production during 1975.
Chart 2
Domestic Fuel Production
INDEX,1967=100
140
100
90 80
l
l
1965
l
I
1967
l
i
1969
l
i
1971
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
89
1973
1975
IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
The United States, a net importer of petroleum and natural gas and an
exporter of coal, has been a net importer of energy for two decades. Gross
imports of petroleum and petroleum products rose from about 21 percent of
consumption in 1965 to about 37 percent in both 1974 and 1975. In absolute
terms gross imports in 1975 were approximately 6 million barrels per day.
There has been a decline in refined petroleum products as a proportion of
total petroleum imports. They averaged 56 percent of the total for the 5 years
from 1968 to 1972 but then fell to 48 percent in 1973, 43 percent in 1974,
and about 32 percent in 1975. This decline is due largely to price controls
administered by the Federal Energy Administration, which provide a large
measure of protection against most imports of refined petroleum products.
Coal exports amount to about 10 percent of total production. They rose
13 percent in 1974 and increased another 10 percent in 1975. Natural gas is
imported mostly by pipeline, and Canada is the dominant source. Canadian
gas imports have played an important role in the natural gas supply of some
regions, but according to recent Canadian policy announcements, these
imports (as well as imports of oil from that nation) will be restricted in the
future.
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENTS
The most notable development in agriculture in the first half of 1975 was
the, extent of reduced feeding of livestock in response to the poor feed grain
harvest of 1974. Most noteworthy in the second half was the reentry of the
Soviet Union as a large buyer of U.S. grain, and the resulting policy measures in the controversial areas of export controls and long-term grain sales
agreements between governments.
ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCED 1974 CROPS
The United States entered 1975 with the lowest supply of feed grains
(corn, oats, barley, and grain sorghum) since 1956. Adverse weather caused
1974 production to be 19 percent below that of the previous year. The 1974
shortfall was especially serious because U.S. grain stocks were already much
below customary levels.
An unexpectedly large response to high grain prices by livestock producers resulted in a larger decline in feed use in 1975 than had been anticipated in late 1974. Farmers economized on feed use by selling cows and
calves, fattening fewer cattle and hogs on grain, adjusting livestock
rations, and marketing cattle at lower weights. The resulting reduction in
feed demand contributed to a decline in feed grain prices of approximately
20 percent between the fourth quarter of 1974 and the second quarter of
1975. At the same time, the liquidation of cattle inventories increased beef
supplies. Declines in the first quarter of 1975 in both crop and livestock
prices brought about a sharp decline in the net income of farm operators and
reduced the rate of increase in retail food prices. These developments helped
to bring about the ending, early in March, of a system under which exporters
90
reported planned large sales of grains and soybeans to the Department of
Agriculture for approval prior to finalizing such sales. Monitoring of export
sales, however, was continued.
In the second half of 1975 price consequences of reduced feed supplies
were passed through to consumers as supplies of most livestock and livestock
products declined. Decreased slaughter of hogs led to record hog and pork
prices. Consumption of pork per capita fell to the lowest level since the 1930s.
Prices of wholesale dairy products increased sharply following a small decline
in milk production. While cattle slaughter remained high because of heavy
marketing of cows and other cattle not fattened on grain, steer and beef
prices rose well above first half and year-earlier averages because of strong
demand. These events, together with increased grain prices as the Soviet
Union entered world grain markets, generated higher retail food prices and
improved farm incomes. Net farm income (including inventory change)
rose from a $20.7-billion annual rate in the first quarter to an average $27.8billion annual rate for the remaining 3 quarters. The resulting $26.0billion net income for all of 1975 is less than 1 percent below that of 1974,
and it is the third highest on record.
THE SOVIET GRAIN SHORTFALL
When the rumored decrease in grain harvests in the U.S.S.R. was confirmed by large Soviet purchases in early July, world prices of wheat, feed
grains, and soybeans increased rapidly. During the month beginning July 7,
prices of U.S. new crop futures increased 28 percent for wheat, 26 percent
for corn, and 25 percent for soybeans. Grain sales from the United States to
the Soviet Union in July totaled about 10 million metric tons, four times the
quantity sold in the preceding fiscal year. The combination of the surge in
Soviet demand, reduced crop prospects in both Eastern and Western
Europe, low U.S. carryover stocks, and the difficulty of knowing how the
U.S. corn and soybean harvest would be affected by the drought in the
western Corn Belt created an extremely uncertain price situation. Because of
questions regarding the size of further Soviet purchases, with their potentially
disruptive consequences given the uncertain supply situation, a temporary
suspension of further U.S. grain sales to the U.S.S.R. was announced by the
Secretary of Agriculture on August 11, 1975.
Under unrestricted market conditions the suspension of U.S. sales to the
U.S.S.R. should have had only transient, if any, effects on grain prices. The
Soviets would simply have shifted their demands to other countries, and
U.S. sales to the U.S.S.R. would have been replaced by sales to other importing countries at the same world and U.S. prices as if the suspension had
riot been imposed. Supply conditions and restrictions in other important
grain-exporting countries, however, limited the extent to which Soviet demands could be shifted. Even so, a hold was placed on sales to Poland during
September to help prevent Soviet demands on world markets from being
transmitted to the United States indirectly.
91
As it turned out, U.S. grain prices peaked during August soon after the suspension of sales to the Soviets. In October, when it had become clear that
there would be bumper U.S. crops of feed grains as well as wheat, additional sales to the U.S.S.R. from 1975 grain crops of up to 7 million metric
tons through September 30, 1976, were permitted without further consultation with the U.S. Government. Through the end of the year 2.7 million
more tons of corn, but no additional wheat, were sold to the Soviet Union.
Despite the fact that estimates of the Soviet grain harvest in 1975 were
further reduced in December (to 137 million metric tons, 36 percent below
target production), purchases of grain by the U.S.S.R. have been less than
they were generally expected to be in October. The smaller than expected
sales may be attributable to constraints on grain imports caused by Soviet
port and handling capacity. In any event, the absence of strong demand,
together with excellent world rice and good Southern Hemisphere grain
prospects, led to a substantial decline in grain prices. From their August
peaks to the end of 1975, the March 1976 futures prices of wheat and corn
declined 30 percent and 22 percent respectively.
At the time that sales to the U.S.S.R. were reopened, a 5-year agreement
for the purchase of U.S. corn and wheat was announced. The intention of
this agreement is to eliminate the erratic fluctuations that have characterized past Soviet purchases from the United States (Table 27). The agreement specifies that the Soviet Union will purchase at least 6 million metric
tons of corn and wheat in each of the next 5 years. The United States reserves
the right, however, to limit Soviet purchases to 8 million tons in any year
and to reduce purchases below 6 million tons if estimated U.S. production
plus carryover stocks of wheat and feed grains fall below 225 million tons
in any given year, a level which would be 41 million tons less than the large
1975 supply and 1 million tons below the sharply reduced 1974 level. The
agreement is unlikely to generate significant net additions to the demand
for U.S. grain because the Soviets can resell or store any of the required 6 million metric tons not needed for domestic use. Soviet storage, however, would
help achieve the objective of smoothing out demands on world grain markets.
TABLE 27.—U.S. grain exports to the U.S.S.R., fiscal years 1971-76
U.S. grain
exports to
U.S.S.R. as
percent of
total U.S.
grain
exports
U.S. grain exports to U.S.S.R.
Fiscal year
Total
grains
Wheat and
rye
Feed
grains
Millions of metric tons
0
2.9
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976 i .
13.7
7.9
2.3
13.1
* Fiscal 1976 export commitments as of January 4,1976.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
92
0
0
9.7
3.3
1.0
4.4
0
2.9
4.0
4.6
1.3
8.7
0
20
11
4
CHAPTER 3
Income Security and Health Issues
T
HE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, over the years, has undertaken
and expanded a wide range of programs in pursuit of social objectives related to the health and welfare of society. Many have benefited
from the programs. The elderly have gained a measure of income security.
Low-income families have been able to supplement their purchasing power
with food stamps and public assistance. The poor, aged, and disabled have
improved their access to medical care. However, the growing scope and cost
of these programs have begun to attract serious analysis of their impact on
the allocation of resources, the distribution of income, and the general wellbeing of the public. This chapter brings together analyses measuring the
effects and identifying the problems of a number of Federal income security
and medical care programs.
The first section considers several welfare and social insurance programs
which provide income security to the poor, the retired, and the unemployed.
In the second section we examine several government programs related to
medical care. Although these are also income security programs, the role of
the government in this area is broader and more complex. Thus medical
care is the subject of a separate section.
This chapter relies heavily on the research of economists and statisticians
employed in government, universities, and private nonprofit research firms.
Although the policy of not citing individual authors or research papers in the
Economic Report of the President is being continued, documentation may
be helpful. Therefore, on request, the Council of Economic Advisers will
send interested readers a bibliography of the external sources used for the
preparation of this chapter.
INCOME SECURITY PROGRAMS
Income security programs redistribute income in cash or in kind to individuals and families. Some may have the effect of increasing future earning potential, but that is not their primary purpose. The Federal programs
having that purpose, such as those for schooling, job training, and rehabilitation, are not considered in this chapter.
Income security programs have been a major factor in the growth of
the Federal budget. As classified in the national income accounts (NIA),
93
597-578 O - 76 - 7
Federal transfer payments to persons (excluding Federal pensions for military and civilian Government employees and for veterans and railroad
workers) amounted to $120 billion in 1975, 34 percent of Federal expenditures. As a source of income to persons. Federal, State, and local government transfers (again excluding all the above items and their State counterparts) accounted for 13 percent of disposable personal income. The
magnitude of income transfers in 1975 was, of course, unusually high because
of the recession, during which earnings were depressed and the cyclically responsive transfers high. But even in 1973 net Federal transfers were 28 percent
of Government expenditures and net Federal, State, and local transfers 10
percent of disposable personal income. This represents a substantial growth
from the middle 1950s. In 1957 these percentages were 14 percent and 5
percent respectively.
Although all the income security programs involve the redistribution of
income, they differ considerably in their specific goals, the people they serve,
and their sources of funds (Table 28). Some programs are related to need
and provide or supplement income so that particular groups may attain
a higher level of purchasing power—supplemental security income (SSI)
and aid to families with dependent children (AFDG). Others attempt to
ensure an adequate or more nearly equal level of consumption of particular
TABLE 28.—Aspects of selected Federal income security programs
Fiscal 1975
Program
Basis of
eligibility
Source of funds
Form of aid
Expenditures i
(billions
of
dollars)
Beneficiaries
(monthly
average;
millions)
OASDI
Age, disability,
or death of parent or spouse
Individual earnings
Federal payroll
taxes on employers and
employees
Cash
Supplemental security
income (SSI)
Age or disability
Income
Federal revenues
Cash
5.5
4.0
AFDC2
Certain families
with children 2
1 ncome
Federal-Statelocal revenues
Cash and
services
8.6
11.1
4.4
17.1
62.6
30.9
Food stamp
Income
Federal revenues
Vouchers
Unemployment compensation
Unemployment
State and Federal
payroll tax on
employers
Cash
13.0
16.0
Medicare
Age or disability
Federal payroll tax
on employers
and employees
Subsidized
health insurance
14.1
324.7
Medicaid
Persons eligible
for AFDC, or
SSI and medically indigent
Federal-Statelocal revenues
Subsidized health
services
13.0
8.3
1 Expenditures by Federal and State and local governments; excludes administrative expenses.
2
Families with children deprived of support because of death, absence from home, or incapacity of parent, or in some
States, in certain circumstances, unemployment of father (AFDC-UF).
3
Estimated number of enrollees.
Source: Council of Economic Advisers (based on program information).
94
goods or services that are considered essential. Thus some programs supplement income with in-kind transfers of food, medical care, or housing. Another category of programs is not directly based on need but replaces a
proportion of wages lost as a result of retirement, disability, death, or unemployment. Included in this group are the unemployment insurance programs
and the largest of all income transfer programs—old-age, survivors, and
disability insurance (OASDI), commonly referred to as social security.
The sources of funds and administration of the programs differ. Social
security is entirely federally funded and administered. The funding and
regulations in the food stamp program are Federal, but the regulations are
implemented by the States. AFDC is funded by the Federal Government
and the States, but is largely State administered. There are, in addition,
some programs not considered in this chapter that are State funded and
administered, in particular, general assistance and emergency assistance.
Forty years ago there were virtually no Federal income security programs. The programs that have since been introduced have expanded in
number; coverage has been extended to additional groups in the population;
and real benefit levels have increased. As a result of the program growth, a
substantial proportion of the needy have been able to improve their level of
consumption.
It has, however, been difficult to measure the precise contribution of
the programs to reducing poverty. Many of the programs provide benefits
in the form of medical care, food, or other in-kind services whose value to
the recipient is not easy to determine. For this reason in-kind benefits are not
counted as income for purposes of determining poverty status or for purposes
of determining eligibility for other programs. However, in 1974, Federal,
State, and local spending on medicaid, food stamps, and child nutrition
programs came to $16.8 billion. These programs are not intended exclusively
for those in poverty, although they are means tested and targeted to lowerincome people. The combined outlays for these programs, however, were
equivalent to about 118 percent of the gap between the aggregate incomes
of those below the poverty threshold and what their incomes would be at
the poverty threshold. This figure is raised to 130 percent if Federal subsidies for public housing and rentals are included. The Bureau of the Census
has recently started collecting data on the Federal food stamp subsidy received by different families in the population. But additional work is needed
before we can fully evaluate the contribution of the in-kind programs to the
poor and their effects on the overall distribution of income.
It would appear that we have made substantial progress in providing resources to those in need. We are now in the process of evaluating our programs with respect to how they have affected individuals and how equitably
they have distributed benefits. For some of the programs new Federal legislation is proposed, such as in food stamp and social security financing.
Other long-run problems do not have easy solutions at this time, nor do we
even have all of the evidence necessary to propose alternative solutions.
95
This section discusses four income security programs, two of which are
means tested (AFDG and food stamps) and two of which are social
insurance programs (unemployment compensation and social security).
Other programs such as supplemental security income, housing subsidies,
and veterans' benefits are not discussed.
AID TO FAMILIES WITH DEPENDENT CHILDREN
The AFDG program is administered by the States with Federal guidance,
while funding is shared by the Federal Government and the States. In some
States a part of the State portion is funded by local governments. Benefits
are provided to families in which dependent children are deprived of the
support of a parent, usually the father, through death, disability, or absence.
In 26 States, 'benefits are also available under some circumstances if the
father is present but unemployed.
Benefit Levels and Participation
The level of income now available to AFDG families, although low compared to that of the average family, is high relative to the potential earnings
of AFDG participants. For example, in a sample of 100 representative counties in 1972, -a hypothetical AFDG family of four (consisting of a woman and
three children) with no earnings or other income was eligible for an average
of $2,947 in AFDC benefits and $884 in food benefits. Since benefits are not
taxedj this would be equivalent to $4,104 in taxable earnings if the families
viewed the food benefits as equal to the same amount of cash. There were also
medical care services available for virtually all AFDC participants. Although
the average medicaid payment per AFDG family was $770, a low-income
family might not value such care at that amount. Adding only $400 for
medicaid results in a taxable equivalent income of about $4,550. This does
not include any housing subsidies or child care services that might have
been received, but does include greater benefits than would have been received if the family had earnings or other income. Moreover, as with all
averages, these data mask considerable variation among States. Thus in
1972, 63 percent of the poor lived in counties where AFDG cash 'benefits
and food benefits were $3,000-$5,000 a year (before taxes) for a family of
four with no private income; but 32 percent were in counties providing
$1,500-$3,000 in benefits, and 5 percent in counties providing over $5,000
in benefits.
Since 1972, AFDC and food program benefit levels have increased. Incorporating increases in benefits for these programs and retaining the same
medicaid benefits results in an equivalent taxable income of $5,348 in 1974
and $5,815 in 1975 for the hypothetical fema'le-headed family considered
above. This is not high compared to the median income of all families,
which was $12,836 in 1974. But on the whole these benefit levels compare
favorably with what many women earn. In 1974, women with the same
level of education as those on AFDC, but who worked full time, year round,
earned $6,175.
96
As indicated in Table 29, the number of families in the AFDC program
has increased substantially over time, with the sharpest rise between 1965
and 1971 when the number of AFDG families almost tripled. Several complex factors seem to have contributed to the program's growth. First, information about the program became widespread, in part because of the efforts
of various organizations concerned with poverty. In addition, participation
in the program was facilitated by changes which raised the income eligibility
standards and liberalized other provisions for eligibility (e.g., residence requirements) . As a result, the proportion of families eligible for the program
increased, as did the proportion of applicants accepted. The rising level of
benefits also made participation more attractive. Between 1965 and 1971,
AFDC payments per recipient, adjusted for changes in the consumer price
index (CPI), increased by 22 percent, compared with the 10 percent increase in hourly earnings (deflated by the CPI) over the same period. The
introduction of medicaid in 1966 and the growing availability of food stamps
after 1965 also added to the benefits that could be obtained, particularly
since AFDC families gain automatic eligibility for these additional benefits.
After 1971 the rate of increase in the number of AFDC families slowed
as a result of several factors. No substantial gains could be achieved from the
spread of information, which was already widely disseminated by the early
1970s. There was a slower rate of increase in the combination of real cash
and in-kind benefits available to AFDC participants. In addition the
liberalization of eligibility provisions that occurred in the 1960s appears to
have ended. A few States, including California and Michigan, have instituted programs to locate absent parents who are liable for a child's support.
TABLE 29.—AFDC families, recipients, and cash payments, selected years, 1950—75
AFDC cash payments
AFDC families i
Year
AFDC
recipients
(thousands)
Number
(thousands)
Percent of
all femaleheaded
families
with
children
Annual
total
(millions
of current
dollars)
Monthly average
per
recipient2
December
1974 dollars 3
Current
dollars
547
21
44
32.2
612
24
46
38.3
994
28
49
1,644
33
54
50
52
54
57
66
65
66
66
64
66
71
68
1950 _.
2,233
651
1955.
2,192
602
1960
3,073
803
1965
4,396
996
40.2
51.3
1970
1971
1972 . ..
1973.
1974 .
9,659
10, 653
11, 065
10, 815
11,006
2,394
2,783
3,005
3,068
3,219
81.8
82.7
83.5
80.8
78.9
1975
11,300
3,395
77.1
4,857
6,230
7,020
7,292
7,991
1
Excludes families with unemployed fathers. The number of AFDC families is for December of each year except 1975
which is for September. The percents are based on the number of female-headed families in March of each year except
for 1955, which refers to April.
2
Data are for December of each year except 1975 which are for September.
3 Deflated by the consumer price index.
Note.—AFDC refers to the "aid to families with dependent children" program.
Sources: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare and Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census).
97
(This type of program is to be made nationwide by the summer of 1976
under the Child Support Program enacted in 1975.)
Since the early 1960s there has been a rapid increase in families headed
by a woman with children. It is possible that the rising benefit levels and
more liberal standards of eligibility in the AFDG program made it easier for
women to form their own households. Studies have found that women tend
to form their own households when their earnings opportunities improve,
while some respond in a similar fashion to increases in the AFDG stipend.
However, AFDC provides an additional incentive for women to remain
family heads, since eligibility for AFDC is conditional upon the absence of a
husband. This may help explain why women on welfare have been observed
to be about half as likely to remarry within a 4-year period as all women
heading families with children.
Work Incentives
In response to the rapid growth in the AFDC program various measures
were taken to encourage AFDC mothers to work and to become selfsupporting. Starting in the early 1960s, training was made available and
pecuniary incentives were granted through a modification in the reduction in
benefits that occurred when an AFDC participant worked. Prior to this time,
in many States, a dollar of benefits was lost for each dollar earned—a 100
percent marginal tax rate on benefits.
The Work Incentive Program (WIN), a result of the 1967 Social Security
Amendments, further modified the implicit marginal tax rate—the amount
by which benefits would be reduced when earnings increased—by providing
that the first $30 of monthly income (net of work-related expenses) be disregarded, after which cash benefits were to be reduced by 67 cents for each
additional dollar earned. Some States, however, allow a monthly income
disregard greater than $30, and there is also considerable variation between
States in allowable deductions for work-related expenses. For these reasons
marginal tax rates are discontinuous as income rises and vary substantially
between States. On average, however, the effective tax on AFDC cash benefits appears to be considerably below 67 percent, and even after taking
account of additional in-kind benefits, the tax on total benefits has fallen
below that of the pre-WIN era. By 1972 the study of 100 counties noted
above indicated that an AFDC family consisting of a mother with three
children could retain, in terms of a gross taxable equivalent, $3,236 in basic
AFDC and food stamp 'benefits out of a potential basic benefit of $4,104,
if the mother's earnings were as much as $3,200 for the year, an implicit
average tax rate on benefits of 27 percent. If she earned another $800, she
would lose $431 in benefits, a 54 percent marginal tax rate.
Additional measures to encourage work among AFDC recipients were introduced as a result of legislation implemented in June 1972. This program,
known as WIN II, requires all employable AFDC recipients to register for
training or placement services as a condition for receiving welfare payments.
AFDC recipients aged 16 or more who are neither disabled nor students
98
under 21 years, and women who do not have a child under 6 years are generally classified as employable. WIN II provides child care services for
trainees as well as training, employment placement services, employer subsidies, and public employment. The WIN II program costs were about
$314 million in fiscal 1975.
The effect on employment of the various work incentive programs
appears to be very slight, although a full evaluation has not been made.
Periodic surveys of mothers in the AFDG program have shown that the percentage who were employed fluctuated between 15 and 16 percent from
1961 to 1973 (the latest available data), although the proportion employed
full time as opposed to part time has increased. These are low rates of employment compared to those for all women with children, of whom 41 percent were employed in 1973. The percentage of all AFDC mothers who were
in the labor force, but unemployed, jumped from 5.7 percent in 1971 to 11.5
percent in 1973 even though 1973 was a year of lower unemployment for
the population as a whole. This increase in reported unemployment, which
resulted from a change in status from outside the labor force to unemployed,
appears to be related to the provisions of WIN II requiring registration for
job placement or training.
The weak response to the work incentives introduced over time is likely to
have been the net result of different and offsetting factors. There is evidence
that AFDC mothers respond to changes in benefit tax rates: holding benefit
levels and labor market conditions constant, employment rates are higher
in States where the effective benefit tax rate is lower. But the effect is not
very strong. It is estimated that, holding other things constant, even with
an effective tax rate on benefits of zero, the percentage of the current population of AFDC mothers who would work is unlikely to exceed 25 percent,
compared to the 16 percent employed in 1973. However, benefit levels were
not held constant during the late 1960s. While the effective tax rate was
being reduced, rapidly rising cash and in-kind benefits were increasing the
income level available to AFDC participants who did not work. It appears
that the negative effect of these rising real benefits on employment almost
completely offset the positive effect of lower marginal tax rates.
An increase in employment, it may be noted, would not necessarily lead to
a reduction in AFDC participation, since liberalized marginal tax rates make
it possible to remain on AFDC with fairly high earnings. The shift to more
full-time employment among AFDC mothers does suggest that some AFDC
participants, possibly those with higher earnings opportunities, did increase
their work effort and remained in the program after an increase in work
effort, in response to the lowered tax rates on earned income. On the other
hand, a substantial proportion of AFDC mothers, either coming into the
program or already there, may have decreased their work activities. Indeed,
there is evidence that during the period of increasing work incentives, 1967
to 1970, the largest increases in female heads of families who were economically eligible for AFDC were among those with no earnings and those with
99
earnings above $2,000, with virtually no increase among families in the
$0-$2,000 range.
The generally weak work attachment of AFDC mothers would appear
to be related to factors which contribute to their being on AFDC in the
first place. One factor is their low level of education—in 1973 only 33
percent were at least high school graduates, compared to 71 percent for
women 15 to 44 years old with children. Studies have also found a higher
incidence of physical and mental disabilities among women on AFDG compared to all women. Thus as indicated above, considering taxes, child care,
and other work-related expenses, an unskilled woman with two or more
children may well find that the cash and in-kind benefits available through
AFDG provide her with nearly as large an income as work.
Several aspects of the AFDC program have led to concern, including the
uneven treatment of single-parent and intact families. Some of the disparities between States in AFDC benefit levels and between single-parent
and intact families are mitigated by the food stamp program, which is available in all areas and to all families. Because the same schedule determining
benefits applies to all localities, low-income families entitled to smaller or
no AFDC benefits as a consequence of their State of residence or their
family composition are eligible for higher food stamp benefits. Because the
basic benefit level provided by food stamps is low and the marginal tax rate
on benefits is low, work disincentives from the food stamp program alone
are probably not substantial.
AFDC-UF
The AFDC program for unemployed fathers (AFDC-UF) provides aid
to intact families with a nondisabled father who is unemployed, as long as
other conditions of AFDC eligibility are satisfied. In the 26 States which
have elected to participate, the father must have been unemployed for at
least 30 days, have had sufficient work experience to satisfy a minimum
requirement, be seeking and available for work, and be unemployed or
working less than 100 hours per month. In addition, until a June 1975
Supreme Court decision, a family was categorically ineligible for AFDC-UF
benefits if the father was eligible for benefits under a Federal or State
unemployment compensation program. Most of the approximately
100,000 participating fathers in 1974 and 1975 had exhausted their unemployment compensation benefit entitlement or were in an uncovered
sector.
In July 1975, 113,000 families received AFDC-UF benefits and an average monthly cash benefit per family of $311, in addition to categorical
eligibility for food stamps and medicaid benefits for dependent family members. There is no limit on the duration of AFDC-UF benefits. The average
AFDC-UF cash benefits are about the same as the average monthly benefit to a worker under unemployment compensation; but for low-wage
fathers, particularly in families with several children and no other income,
100
AFDC-UF benefits could be substantially greater than unemployment
compensation.
The June 1975 decision can be expected to increase AFDG-UF participation. This may create problems because of the potential work disincentives for low-income, intact families. In addition, some of the cost of unemployment will be shifted from the employer-financed trust funds to general Federal and State revenues. However, the opportunity for this aid does
provide more ample income maintenance for more low-income, intact
families.
FOOD PROGRAMS
Concern about hunger or inadequate nutrition has led to the development
of an array of programs which supplement income by providing either meals
or vouchers to buy food. Benefits from these programs are not counted as
income either by the Bureau of the Census in its income and poverty statistics, or in determining eligibility for other income maintenance programs.
Spending on the major food programs has increased from $365 million in
1960 to about $6.4 billion in 1975, with the most rapid increases occurring
since 1970 (Table 30).
Food Stamps
The food stamp program is the largest of these programs. It was set up in
1964 as an alternative to the direct distribution of surplus food commodities.
The stated intention was to provide for "improved levels of nutrition among
economically needy households." Because of the difficulties in estimating
nutritional levels, the effect of the program on the health of the poor has not
been established. Food stamps have, however, become an important part of
our income maintenance system.
In fiscal 1965 the food stamp and food distribution programs together
served a monthly average of 6.2 million people at a total Federal cost of $262
million, or a cost per participant of $41. By calendar 1975, the food stamp
program alone served a monthly average of close to 19 million Americans
at a total Federal expenditure of about $5 billion and a subsidy per participant of $270. A major factor in the growth of program participation
has been its expansion by 1975 to all counties and U.S. territories.
Eligibility for food stamps is based on the "net income" a household
expects to receive during the coming month (prospective accounting). A
family's net income is its gross income less Federal, State, and local income
taxes, social security taxes, retirement contributions, and union dues. Some
other allowable deductions are medical expenditures exceeding $10 a month;
child care when needed for work; expenses related to fire, theft, or other disasters; educational expenses for tuition and fees; alimony, rent, and utilities;
and mortgage payments above 30 percent of income after all other deductions
have been subtracted. A household is excluded if it has liquid assets or certain
property valued at $1,500 or more. The asset limitation is $3,000 for house-
101
TABLE 30.—Federal food programs, selected fiscal years, 1950-75
Program
Food distribution program for needy families:
Number of participants
Federal cost:
Total
Per participant
Food stamp program:
Number of participants
Federal cost:
Total
Per participant
National school lunch program:
Number of children participating
Pe rcent of en rolled child ren :
Total number of participants
Participants receiving free lunches
or lunches at reduced prices
Federal cost
Special milk program:
Federal cost
School breakfast program:
Number of children participating
Federal cost
Special preschool food service program:
Number of children participating
Federal cost
Special summer food service program:
Number of children participating^
Federal cost
Unit
1950
1960
1965
1970
1974
19751
Millions 3
0.2
4.3
5.8
4.1
2.4
Millions of
dollars
Dollars
6
59
227
289
189
36
24
14
39
70
80
120
Millions 2
.4
4.3
12.9
17.1
Millions of
dollars
Dollars
35
550
2,728
4,396
76
127
212
257
Millions s
Percent
Percent
Millions of
dollars
Millions of
dollars
Thousands 3
Millions of
dollars
Thousands 3
Millions of
dollars
Thousands 3
Millions of
dollars
0.3
8.6
14.1
18.7
23.1
25.0
25.4
34.1
35.0
39.2
44.4
48.7
49.1
3.4
120
3.5
226
80.3
3.9
403
97.2
9.2
566
101.5
536
18.1
19.5
1,377
1,702
61.4
124.1
1,550
2,000
10.9
70.1
85.0
93.4
346.4
440.0
30.0
47.2
6.3
461.9 1,415.2
6.5
36.1
1,810.0
53.6
1 Preliminary estimate.
Monthly average.
« Daily average.
2
Note.—Federal cost excludes administrative expenses.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
holds with a member aged 60 years or more. The value of a home, a car,
and any other personal effects is not considered in determining eligibility.
The stamps are vouchers which can be used to purchase most food items
sold in grocery stores. The stamp allotment for a family is based on the current
market cost of the foods that make up the Thrifty Food Plan developed by
the Department of Agriculture to meet their nutritional standards. The
cost of this food plan, and therefore the food stamp allotment, is equivalent
to about 80 percent of expenditures made by the average U.S. consumer for
food at home. The allotment is changed twice a year to reflect changes in the
price of foods that make up the food plan. The permissible amount of
stamps a household can purchase varies with the number of household members. In January 1976, the allotment for a four-person household was $166
a month in food stamps.
The amount a household pays for the stamps depends on its net monthly
income. The difference between the food stamp allotment and the purchase
price is the "bonus" or Federal subsidy. Families with less than $30 net in-
102
come pay nothing; that is, their bonus is equivalent to the entire food stamp
allotment. Households of four receiving AFDC or SSI are automatically
entitled to a monthly subsidy of at least $24 regardless of their income.
On the whole, the food stamp program reaches relatively low-income
households (Table 31). It is estimated that the benefits have been sufficient
to raise the mean income of the recipient families by about 10 percent. The
food stamp program, however, has been criticized because it provides income supplements for some who do not have low income, and because it
distributes resources in a way that many consider inequitable. The deductions allow some families to qualify who have large discretionary expenditures
on items such as housing, education, and child care, while other families
with the same income but with different consumption patterns for deductible
items do not qualify.
Another important inequity follows from determining eligibility on the
basis of income in a single month. As a result, some households qualify during
a portion of the year, although their income over the year as a whole is
sufficiently high to exclude them by any comparable annual standard
(Table 31). For example, while only 1 percent of households in the program
had a monthly income of $1,000 in July 1975, 3 percent had annual incomes
of $12,000 over the year ending in July 1975.
Because of the 1-month accounting period, the food stamp program provides benefits to both the long-term poor and those whose incomes are
temporarily low because of unemployment, sickness, a strike, or other reasons.
The food stamp program provides countercyclical income maintenance benefits for the unemployed and participation rises with seasonal unemployment.
TABLE 31.—Distribution of food stamp households by annual and monthly income, July
and March and July 1975
1974
Percent of total food stamp
households
Income class
July 1974
March 1975
July 1975
1
Annual income :
Total food stamp households
Less than $6,000
$6,000-$7,499
$7,500-$9,999
$10,000-$! 1,999
$12,000 and over
100.0
100.0
100.0
88.4
78.1
82.8
5.2
3.2
1.2
2.0
7.3
6.9
3.2
4.6
6.8
5.0
2.5
2.9
Monthly income:
Total food stamp households
Less than $500
$500-$599
$600-$749 .
$750-$999
$1,000 and over
100.0
100.0
90.2
87.7
4.7
2.9
1.2
1.1
6.1
3.2
1.9
1.1
i Annual income is for 12 months ending in July 1974, March 1975, and July 1975. Households include single-person
households. Annual income shown here may be understated compared to data derived from more detailed surveys of
income.
Note.—Monthly income data were not collected for March 1975.
Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
103
Although the family income of many of the unemployed may be low enough
to qualify for food stamps during a month of unemployment, their income
over a longer accounting period, covering months with employment, may
be substantially above the food stamp eligibility level. The annual income
of food stamp recipients in March 1975 was higher than in July 1974 or
July 1975, partly because March was a month of high cyclical as well as
seasonal unemployment.
In 1975, the President proposed the National Food Stamp Reform Act
which directs the program benefits toward those with low income over a
period of time and curtails the provision of benefits to higher-income families. The proposal would change the method of determining eligibility by
averaging actual income received over the past 90 days, rather than using the
applicant's estimate of next month's income. It is estimated that the change
from prospective to retrospective monthly accounting would save about 5
percent of the program's cost because of a better reporting of income. Lengthening the accounting period would save an estimated additional 4 percent of
program costs, since families with high income over 90 days, but temporarily
low monthly income, will not participate. Families with a 90-day income
just above eligibility levels would quickly qualify in the event that their income deteriorated. Families whose usual incomes are sufficiently high that
they would not qualify if their income declined for only 1 month are more
likely to have assets that they can draw upon.
Another proposed change is to replace the present itemized deduction for
determining net income with a single standard deduction of $100 a month,
except for households with a member 60 years old or more, when the deduction would be $125 a month. As a result of the standard deduction, some
families will be ineligible who now qualify because of large expenditures on
certain deductible items. However, the deduction of $100 is higher than the
present total deduction for the average family. This will benefit families with
low incomes who formerly did not have many itemized expenditures.
Another feature of the proposal is to cut off all benefits for families whose
income over the past 90 days, after the standard deduction, exceeds the
equivalent of the poverty line. Thus, under this proposal, a family of four
with a 90-day income in excess of $1,675 would be ineligible in 1976.
The proposed National Food Stamp Reform Act is expected to result in
reductions of Federal outlays of $1.2 billion (21 percent) compared to
present levels. Approximately 26 percent of the current monthly case load
would become ineligible, and another 28 percent would receive reduced subsidies, chiefly those at higher income levels and those who tend to receive
small subsidies. However, benefits will increase for approximately 24 percent
of present participants, mainly at the lowest income levels.
There had been substantial concern that youths from high-income families
were qualifying for food stamps while they were away from home at a college
or universitv. A new regulation requires that when a student's parents claim
him as a deduction on their Federal income tax, the family, not the student
104
himself, is the relevant filing unit for food stamp purposes. In addition, the
proposed changes from itemized deductions, including school fees and
tuition, to a standard deduction will provide a more equitable treatment of
families.
Food Programs for Schoolchildren
The Federal Government provided about $2 billion in fiscal 1975 in
subsidies for meals provided to children in nursery, primary, and secondary
schools, and in some summer programs. These programs are implicitly based
on the two presumptions that an adequate diet for children is important
for their ability to learn and that many children are not able to obtain
a nutritionally adequate diet at home.
In 1947 the Government contributed 8.2 cents in cash and 1.1 cent in
commodities for each lunch served to any child, regardless of income. About
25 percent of all schoolchildren participated in the program, of whom about
12 percent received a free lunch subsidized by State and local sources. Until
the middle 1960s, program growth was due mainly to increases in school
enrollments and less to increases in participation rates. The Federal share in
funding dropped during the period, while State, local, and student shares
increased.
Starting in 1970 the Federal Government began additional subsidies to
the lunch program targeted to children from lower-income families. As a
result, the share of Federal funds increased sharply, and the percentage of
students in the school lunch program increased. In fiscal 1976 the Federal
Government contributes 12.5 cents in a cash grant and 11 cents in a commodity grant to all school lunches, regardless of the family income of the
children. In addition, the Federal Government contributes almost 57 cents
per lunch in cash for children who receive a free lunch and 47 cents for
children receiving lunch at a reduced price.
The lunch program provides a free lunch to children from families whose
income is at or below 125 percent of the poverty threshold. In 1974, about
17 percent of all schoolchildren received a free lunch.
Several new and potentially expensive programs have been introduced
recently to expand the child nutrition programs. The Government school
breakfast program is one example. It now provides an average subsidy of
31.4 cents per breakfast. If all eligible students participated, the annual cost
would be $0.9 billion. Another is the Federal subsidy of 75.5 cents per
lunch and supper provided to summer camps and day care institutions on
the condition that the children come from an area defined as one where at
least 33/3 percent of the children are eligible for free or reduced-price school
meals. Since 38 percent is the national average, a substantial proportion of
institutions will qualify for the subsidy, regardless of the family income of
the participating children.
Legislation enacted in 1975 would further increase Federal expenditures on the programs. Eligibility for the reduced-price lunch was extended
to 195 percent of the poverty line (the equivalent of an income of $9,800
105
for a nonfarm family of four, using the 1974 poverty threshold), and it was
made mandatory that all schools receiving Federal lunch money provide such
a program. As a result, about 38 percent of children would become eligible
for a free or reduced-price lunch. Participation is also likely to increase
because of the mandatory provisions of the program. As a result of the new
legislation, Federal expenditures are expected to increase by $0.5 billion
more in fiscal 1977 than the $2.3 billion that was anticipated under the old
legislation.
It is estimated that 31 percent of the Federal expenditures of $1.8 billion
on the programs went to children from families above 125 percent of the
poverty line in 1975. In addition, there is duplication of Federal benefits,
with different programs subsidizing the same meal.
To provide for a more rational distribution of child nutrition funds, the
Administration is proposing a single block grant to the States to replace
the programs discussed above, as well as several other categorical food programs for children and mothers. The proposed legislation would eliminate
food subsidies to children above the poverty line, allow the States greater
flexibility in determining the needs of the children from low-income families,
and simplify program administration.
UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION
The recession of 1974-75 has again demonstrated that the unemployment
compensation system is one of our most effective countercyclical tools. As
workers are placed on a layoff, benefits begin immediately, thereby providing financial assistance to those families most severely hurt by the fall in
employment. This provision of purchasing power to the unemployed is of
substantial importance in promoting economic recovery and in more equitably
distributing the economic hardships of a recession. As the unemployment rate
increased from the second quarter of 1973 to the second quarter of 1975, for
example, the average weekly number of beneficiaries under all unemployment compensation programs increased from 1.5 million to 5.4 million. As
the recovery continues, the size of the unemployment compensation programs
will decrease when persons receiving benefits gain employment.
This section reviews the main features of the unemployment compensation system and considers some of its implications for income maintenance
and efficiency in the long run.
Program Characteristics
The nationwide unemployment compensation system had its origins in
the 1935 Social Security Act. It is a joint program administered by the
States within Federal guidelines. In addition, direct Federal unemployment
programs cover four special groups: railroad workers, recently discharged
members of the Armed Forces, Federal civilian employees, and those unemployed as a consequence of imports. A temporary federally funded program,
special unemployment assistance (SUA), was introduced in January 1975
106
to provide benefits for wage and salary workers not covered by a regular
Federal or State program. In addition, temporary Federal programs to
extend the duration of benefits have been in effect in all recessions since 1958.
The legal rules and administrative practices of the unemployment compensation system vary substantially from State to State. There are, however, certain basic features. Generally, to be eligible for benefits a person
must have had sufficient work experience and earnings in covered employment in a recent 1-year period prior to the onset of unemployment. As a
result of the work experience requirement, new entrants and most reentrants
to the labor force do not qualify for benefits. Nearly all workers on a job
layoff but with work experience in a covered industry can qualify, so that
total expenditures for unemployment benefits are highly sensitive to cyclical
movements in the economy.
Eligibility also depends on the cause of unemployment. In all States persons unemployed because of a job layoff are eligible for benefits. Persons who
voluntarily quit without "good cause" are subject to disqualification; however, the definition of good cause varies substantially among the States.
For example, mandatory retirement, loss of transportation to work, or a
change in location because a spouse changes jobs constitute good cause in
some States, but not in others. Unemployment without good cause can still
lead to compensation under the program in 31 States, but only after a disqualification period, and the length of the period varies widely. Strikers can
receive unemployment benefits in New York and Rhode Island after a disqualification period. Thirteen States reduce or deny benefits to persons receiving social security retirement benefits.
As a further condition, to receive benefits the unemployed claimant must
be able to work, be available for and actively seeking employment, and cannot reject a "suitable" job offer. The administration of the work test varies
among the States. It also varies over the business cycle. The work test is
harder to administer during a recession than when jobs are plentiful. Some
States require weekly or biweekly visits to the local unemployment office to
file a claim and collect benefits, and the claimant must present specific proof
of job search. Other States require periodic interviews, ask for little or no
documented proof of jdb search, and permit the mailing of benefit checks to
the claimant's home.
In 43 States the duration of benefit entitlement under the regular program
increases with the amount of work experience during the base period, generally up to a 26-week ceiling. Weekly benefits for these States are about onehalf of the worker's pretax wage, up to a ceiling that varies among the States
from $60 in Indiana to $139 per week in the District of Columbia as of
January 1976. The other seven States have a fixed-duration program in
which all eligible persons receive benefits for the same number of weeks,
but the weekly benefit is itself determined by work experience and weekly
earnings prior to unemployment. States where the maximum is $90 a week
or more contain 70 percent of covered workers. Twelve States supplement
107
the benefit check with a small dependency allowance for a spouse or dependent children who are not working.
Benefits have increased at about the same rate as wages in covered employment. There has, however, been an increase over time in the extent to
which income maintenance benefits from other programs, particularly food
stamps, are available to supplement unemployment compensation. Some
unemployed fathers in low-income families will receive larger benefits because of the June 1975 court decision which allows them to accept AFDCUF benefits instead of unemployment compensation.
From the worker's point of view, the fact that unemployment insurance
benefits are not subject to payroll or income taxes (as they are in some other
industrial countries such as Canada and the United Kingdom) increases
their value. For household heads earning $150 per week, unemployment
benefits replace about 60 percent of wages (net of taxes) and fringe benefits
lost because of unemployment, while for those earning $400 per week the
replacement rate is about one-third. The replacement rate can be very high
(close to 100 percent) for low-wage workers in high-income families: for
example, when the wife has low earnings and the husband has high income
and they are in a high marginal tax bracket.
Benefits under the State unemployment insurance system are funded by
taxes levied on employers in proportion to workers' base wages, equal in most
States to the first $4,200. In principle, the tax rate varies according to employers' experience ratings, which are based on the extent to which their
workers draw benefits from the system. However, because the variation in
tax rates is usually within narrow margins, many firms with very high or very
low unemployment experience relative to their industry often realize no
change in their tax rates as a result of changes in their unemployment
experience. Because the unemployment insurance funds in many States
have been seriously depleted by the recent recession, the Administration has
proposed increases in the taxable earnings base and in the Federal component of the tax rate.
Potential coverage of workers has been extended under the regular programs, from 59 percent of all workers in 1950 to 81 percent in 1974, because
industrial coverage was made broader in 1954 and 1972 and because of a
decline in the proportion of the labor force in the major remaining sectors
not covered: agriculture, self-employment, and unpaid employment in a
family business. As a result of special unemployment assistance, coverage was
extended to the approximately 12 million wage and salary workers not
covered by a regular program, primarily State and local government, farm,
and domestic workers. Only the 8 million self-employed and unpaid workers
in family businesses are not now covered by a regular or temporary program. The Administration has proposed legislation that would bring 6
million additional wage and salary workers, now covered by SUA, under
the regular State programs so that their employers will contribute to the
unemployment insurance trust fund.
108
In spite of the increased coverage there has been a decline over the past
20 years in the proportion of the unemployed receiving benefits under the
regular State programs. This is probably due to the change in the composition of the labor force. Because of the eligibility requirements, many unemployed youths and women with weak labor market attachment do not
have sufficient work experience to qualify for benefits. As these groups
have increased in relative importance both in the labor force and among
the unemployed, the proportion of the unemployed receiving benefits declined. Among the group with a more stable labor force attachment, men
aged 25 and over, there has been a secular increase in the proportion of
the unemployed claiming benefits. For example, this proportion declined
from 54 percent in 1960 to 41 percent in 1973 for all unemployed persons,
but for men aged 25 and over it increased from 63 percent to 72 percent.
Temporary programs to extend the duration of benefit entitlements in a
recession have become more common. Prior to 1970, benefits were temporarily extended to 39 weeks in 1958 and 1961-62. A 1970 law permanently
authorized an extension of benefits to 39 weeks in times of high State or
national unemployment. In 1975, there was an unprecedented temporary
extension of benefits in all States to a maximum duration of 65 weeks
through the 26 weeks of federally funded benefits provided under Federal
supplemental benefits (FSB).
Under current legislation, FSB and SUA benefits are scheduled to terminate in March 1977, or earlier if there is a sufficiently low State or nationwide unemployment rate. The purpose of this phasing out is that unemployment compensation should not discourage workers from actively seeking
employment when job possibilities improve.
Some Effects of the Program
In recent years there has been considerable research on how the availability, potential duration, and size of unemployment benefits affect the
measured unemployment rate. Although their estimates must be interpreted
with caution, the studies are suggestive of the general impact of the program.
Several studies have used individual data to examine the effect on
unemployment of the potential duration and level of benefits. The quantitative findings vary from study to study, in part because they differ
in methodology, data, and time period. However, they all tend to indicate that the duration of actual unemployment is greater the higher the
benefit level and the longer the potential duration of benefits. There
is evidence, moreover, that the duration of benefit entitlement may be
even more important than the level of benefits in explaining unemployment
duration.
One study examined the effect of covering agricultural wage and salary
workers (who had previously been covered in only two States) with the
introduction of special unemployment assistance in January 1975. The
study developed equations to predict agricultural unemployment rates
and employment on the basis of cyclical and other factors. Seasonally
109
597-578 O - 76 - 8
adjusted data were used to compare the observed and predicted values
before and after the introduction of SUA. After SUA, seasonally adjusted
employment was lower during the off-season, presumably because of the
availability of unemployment compensation. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by about 20 percent (2 percentage points) in
the off-season, but did not change in the on-season. Apparently because of
the SUA benefits, in 1975 the annual unemployment rate of agricultural
wage and salary workers seems to have been about 10 percent greater than
that predicted on the basis of cyclical and other factors. However, one year's
experience may not be sufficient to estimate the long-term magnitude of
these effects.
The extent to which States engage in eligibility screening can affect the
amount of observed unemployment. The proportion of claims for unemployment compensation under the State programs that are rejected on the
basis of individual State administrative decisions regarding eligibility can
be called a "denial rate." Using State data for 1971, one recent study
found that this denial rate had a significant impact on the State unemployment rate. It was estimated, for example, that at the margin a 10 percent
increase in the national denial rate from the observed 25 per 1,000 claimant
contacts would lower the national unemployment rate by 0.14 percentage
point. It appears that a higher denial rate may not only decrease the period
of unemployment among those denied benefits but may have an even
larger impact by discouraging unemployment among others. Eligibility
screening is subject to administrative control. Greater administrative expenditures and more time devoted to eligibility screening appear to result
in a higher denial rate, particularly for reasons related to unavailability
for work and the rejection of suitable employment. These effects are likely
to be weaker during a period of high unemployment when job vacancies
are more scarce. And, beyond some point, additional expenditures would
have much smaller effects.
Certain categories of workers are more strongly affected by benefits than
others. Those who have home responsibilities or are approaching retirement
are more likely to remain unemployed until they exhaust their benefit entitlements. A study of the unemployment insurance system in Nevada in
1971—72, for example, found that a substantially larger proportion of exhaustees were either aged 55 or over or women, compared to those who
stopped collecting benefits prior to exhausting their entitlement. Although
greater difficulty in finding jobs may explain part of the differential, it
cannot explain all of it. In this study, for example, 2 months after benefit
exhaustion, 30 percent were employed, and another 30 percent had withdrawn from the labor force, primarily because of ill health, retirement, or
family responsibilities. Similar findings emerge from other studies.
For most persons, however, the income support provided by the
unemployment compensation system is a means of financing the search for
a job. For these persons, if a longer period of unemployment facilitates job
110
search and leads to a job with higher wages and better fringe benefits, more
pleasant working conditions, or a longer expected job tenure, it may represent a worthwhile investment. Thus far, however, studies of the effect of the
additional job search stimulated by unemployment compensation have been
inconclusive.
The unemployment insurance system also affects employers' behavior
through the operation of the payroll tax. The tax levied on a particular
employer does not depend strongly on the actual unemployment experience
of his workers. Because of the weak experience rating the cost of a layoff is
reduced. Partly because of the unemployment compensation benefits, workers would be less likely to seek other jobs during these periods of unemployment, particularly if unemployment is widespread. Thus the payroll tax
subsidizes seasonal, cyclical, and casual unemployment relative to stable
employment. This greater frequency of unemployment thereby leads to
an increase in the unemployment rate. Data from a variety of sources
indicate that much of the unemployment arising from job layoffs is temporary and does not involve a change in employer. For example, since
1960, manufacturing establishments had an average of 1.5 layoffs per 100
employees per month. During this period their rehire rate was 1.3 workers
per 100 employees per month. Thus, on average, 85 percent of layoffs resulted in reemployment by the same establishment.
Results of various studies of the effects of unemployment compensation
indicate that it is our most efficient tool for quickly providing financial help
to those who lose a job. However, and to a large extent unavoidably, the
existence of this automatic aid makes it easier for employers to lay off workers and for workers to prolong their period of unemployment. One implication is that the unemployment rate is affected by the amount and duration
of unemployment compensation benefits. As a result of these and other
issues that have been raised about the unemployment insurance system, the
President has proposed the establishment of a National Commission on Unemployment Compensation to study alternatives and make recommendations.
SOCIAL SECURITY
The old-age, survivors, and disability insurance program, generally referred to as social security, is the largest income transfer program, in
terms of both funds and number of recipients. In 1975, 32 million persons received cash benefits of $67 billion, which was 19 percent of the
Federal budget and 4.5 percent of GNP (Table 32). Growth in the program
has been extraordinary during the past 5 years. The number of recipients
increased by 22 percent, and after adjusting for the increase in prices over
this period, the average monthly benefit for retired workers increased by
26 percent.
The social security system has been successful in raising the income levels
of a large proportion of the elderly who otherwise would have been impoverished. However, because of the sheer size of the program, there is a
111
TABLE 32.—Beneficiaries
and cash benefits in the old-age, survivors, and disability insurance
program (OASDI), selected years, 1950-75
Beneficiary or benefit
1950
1960
1965
1970
1974
1975
Number of beneficiaries (millions)! :
Total
....
Retired workers, dependents, and survivors
Retired workers only
Disabled workers and dependents. ..
Annual cash benefits (billions of dollars)
3.5
14.8
20.9
26.2
30.9
31.9
3.5
1.8
14.2
19.1
11.1
23.6
13.3
26.9
16.0
27 6
1.0
11.3
8.1
.7
1.7
18.3
2.7
31.9
3.9
58.5
16.5
4.3
67.1
Average monthly benefits (dollars):
44
45
45
10
All retired workers *
. .
Maximum to men retiring at age 65 2
Maximum to women retiring at age 65 2
Minimum to persons retiring at age 65 2
74
119
119
33
84
132
136
44
118
190
196
64
188
206
3305
3342
3360
3316
394
3101
1 As of December of each year.
2 Assumes retirement at beginning of year.
3 As of June.
Source: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
need to evaluate recent developments in the pattern of expenditures and of
the taxes required to fund them.
Program Characteristics
The first social security legislation of 1935 intended that the program
operate on a self-financed and actuarially sound basis. Contributions from
the payroll tax were to exceed benefits in the early years so that a substantial
trust fund relative to annual benefit outlays could be accumulated. Individual benefits were to be closely related to each individual's prior earnings
except for preferential treatment at the base (minimum) amount. The
amendments of 1939 changed the character of the program by stipulating
that individuals retiring early in the life of the program would receive
benefits greater than the actuarial value of taxes paid, and that dependents
of retired workers would also receive benefits without any additional tax
payments required. The 1950 amendments moved still farther away from
a fully funded trust to the "pay-as-you-go" system which prevails today,
under which those currently working essentially pay for the benefits of those
who are retired.
As of January 1976, OASDI benefits are funded from a tax of 9.9 percent
levied on the first $15,300 of wages, the maximum taxable earnings, with the
payments shared equally by employer and employees. The self-employed
pay a tax of 7 percent. (An additional tax of 1.8 percent for wage and
salary workers and 0.9 percent for the self-employed is for medicare hospital insurance.) Tax payments are paid into separate trust funds, one
for retirement and survivors, and one for disability. About 90 percent of all
wage and salary earners and the self-employed are covered by the program
and subject to mandatory contributions. The major exclusions are Federal
civilian employees, who are under a separate Federal retirement program,
and some State and local employees. In the past, increases in benefits and
taxes have been legislated by the Congress periodically. Starting in 1975,
on the basis of the 1972 amendments, benefit levels were "indexed" or linked
112
to the consumer price index so that they rise -automatically depending on
increases in prices. Similarly, the maximum taxable earnings base was
roughly indexed to changes in average covered wages, and hence it also
Social security is designed as a replacement for earnings lost because of
increases automatically over time.
a worker's retirement, disability, or death. Eligibility for benefits depends on
work in covered employment for a minimum period as well as on age, disability, or survivor status. Although there are no restrictions on the amount
of income that may be received from property, other pensions, or any sources
other than work, individual benefits may be reduced if the beneficiary has
earnings from employment and is less than 72 years of age. In 1976 beneficiaries can earn $2,760 without any reduction in benefits, but for each $2
in earnings above $2,760, benefits are reduced by $1. The amount of a worker's basic monthly benefit (before any reductions) depends on the worker's
record of covered earnings, averaged over a specified number of years (at
present 20 years for retirement benefits). Dependents and dependent survivors receive payments tied to the benefit level of the primary beneficiary.
Workers choosing to retire between ages 62 and 65 receive a permanently
reduced benefit. Disabled workers under the age of 65 have been eligible for
benefits since 1957.
Table 33 shows the relation between the size of the benefit awarded and
preretirement earnings for hypothetical male workers at different earnings
levels, as calculated by one study. Examples are given for men retiring at
age 65 and age 62, for single men, and for married men whose wives did not
work in covered employment. The social security formula for determining
benefits is scaled progressively so that benefits as a proportion of earnings
fall as the benefit base rises. The benefit base, in turn, is calculated from prior
earnings. For example, a male worker with a low-wage history culminating
in $4,000 in annual earnings in the year before retirement would receive 55
TABLE 33.—Social security benefits for single men and for married men with a dependent wife
retiring at age 65 years and age 62 years, 1974
Men retiring at age 65 years
1973 earnings before taxes
and marital status
Amount of
tax free
benefit
(dollars)
Benefit as
percent of
1973 earnings
before taxes
Men retiring at age 62 years
Amount of
tax free
benefit
(dollars)
Benefit as
percent of
1973 earnings
before taxes
$4,000:
Single
Married.
2,197
3,296
54.9
82.4
1,758
2,582
43.9
64,5
$8,000:
Single ...
Married.
3,349
5,024
41.9
62.8
2,679
3,935
33.5
49.2
$12,000:
Single
Married
3,644
5,467
30.4
45.6
2,916
4,282
24.3
35.7
Note.—Benefits are based on average amount of a worker's wages over a 19-year period. Wage histories for each category
of wage earners were simulated by assuming that their wages grew at the same rate as that of the average wages of nonsupervisory personnel. The wife is assumed to be same age as worker and to have no covered earnings.
Source: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (Office of Income Security Policy).
113
percent of his preretirement earnings in benefits if he is single, 82 percent
if he is married. But a male worker making $12,000 before retirement would
receive only 30 percent of such earnings if single and 46 percent if married.
Because benefits are tax free and taxes are relatively more important at
higher earnings levels, however, the decline in after-tax replacement rates as
earnings rise is somewhat less than indicated here.
Income of the Aged
Social security is an important source of income for the aged. Largely
because earnings decline with age, and because women are less likely to
work than men, and earn less if they do, social security increases in relative
importance with age and is relatively more important for households headed
by a widowed woman (often single-person households). In 1973, among
households headed by a widow aged 70 or older, the average annual income
was $2,819, of which social security accounted for 57 percent. By contrast,
among households headed by a married man aged 65 to 69, the total
mean income was $9,694; social security on the average accounted for 25
percent of income, and wages and self-employment earnings accounted for
46 percent. In 1974, 23 percent of all persons 65 years old and over were
women living alone, while 60 percent were married and living with a spouse.
The rapid increases in social security benefits of recent years have made
a substantial contribution in improving the income status of the elderly.
In 1966, 28.5 percent of those aged 65 and over were below the poverty
level compared to 14.2 percent for all persons; in 1974, 15.7 percent of
the elderly were in poverty compared to 11.6 percent of all persons. In addition to cash income, many of the elderly have imputed income from
owner-occupied homes for which they are no longer making mortgage payments (70 percent of elderly households own their own homes). Virtually
all of those aged 65 and over receive medicare or medicaid benefits, and
many also finance some of their consumption out of their assets. These
additional sources raise the relative level of consumption of the aged.
Work Incentives
Social security has created incentives for the aged and disabled to reduce their work during the year. The availability of the pension itself is an
inducement to work less and take more leisure. In addition, the earnings test
which applies up to age 72 restricts the amount that can be earned without
forfeiting any benefits.
Between 1940 and 1950 only about a third of men aged 65 and over
were eligible for social security benefits (Table 34), and benefits were low
and declining in real value. After 1950 there was a sharp increase in the percentage eligible for social security—to 81 percent in 1960 and 93 percent in
1975. Benefit amounts also increased sharply, even after adjusting for inflation. After remaining stable from 1940 to 1950 the labor force participation
of men at 65 years of age and over declined sharply. Hours worked per week
for men 65 years of age and over also fell, from 42 in 1950 to 34 in 1970.
114
TABLE 34.—Labor force participation rates and social security benefits for men 60 years of age
and older, selected years, 1940—75
Age group
1940
1950
1960
1970
1970
1975
Percent of men in labor force »:
60-64 years .
60-61 years
62-64 years
79.0
81.7
77.0
79.4
81.8
77.7
77.8
82.0
74.7
73.2
80.3
67.9
75.0
78.7
69.8
65.7
75.2
58.8
65-69 years
59.4
59.7
44.0
39.3
41.6
31.7
70 years and over
70-74 years
75 years and over
28.4
38.4
18.2
28.3
38.7
18.7
21.9
28.7
15.6
16.6
22.5
12.1
17.7
25.2
12.0
15.1
21.2
10.2
Percent of men eligible for social security
benefits 2:
62-64 years
65 years and over
Average monthly primary social insurance
benefit for men filing for benefits in given
year:
Current dollars
1975 dollars »
(3)
U09
23.26
89.81
(3)
(3)
32 4
80.7
31.88
71.80
168. 24
92.03
93.8
91.0
96.4
92.5
146. 99
205. 12
263. 53
263. 53
1 Data in the first four columns are from the "Census of Population." Data in the last two columns are from the "Current
Population Survey"; they exclude institutional population and are for April.
2
Based on number of persons eligible at beginning of year,
s Not eligible for social security benefits.
* Data are for 1941.
s Deflated by the consumer price index.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics), and
Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
The same relation between benefits and retirement behavior is evident for
the group aged 62-64, who became eligible for retirement at reduced benefits in 1961. Although their labor force participation rate had been fairly
stable until I960, it declined markedly after benefits became available. One
recent study finds that for every 10 percent increase in social security benefits
relative to average wages, the number of male beneficiaries aged 62-64
increases by 2.8 percent in the first quarter after the increase, and by 6.0 percent after 5 quarters.
Persons eligible for social security have also been found to adjust their
work behavior to avoid losing benefits under the earnings test. Thus, following a liberalization in the earnings test during 1966, over 10 percent of the
working beneficiaries raised their earnings from $1,200 to $1,500, the new
ceiling. The earnings test does not apply to those aged 72 and over, who
may earn any amount without forfeiting benefits. For this reason many of
those with high earnings wait until age 72 to start collecting benefits.
Although social security appears to have been an important factor in the
decline in employment among those of retirement age, other factors were
operating as well. Increases in earnings and income over time enabled workers to save more in order to enjoy more years of leisure at older ages, and a
larger proportion of the elderly now have asset holdings and private pensions.
The decline in self-employment on the farm and in nonfarm industries also
contributed to declining work at older ages, since the self-employed retire at
a later age than employees. Studies indicate that in years of relatively high
unemployment retirement is accelerated. Compulsory retirement practices
may also have had an effect. However, the spread of compulsory retirement
115
may itself have been stimulated by the availability of social security and the
development of private pension systems.
There were additional incentives for the elderly to work longer, however,
which have probably served to prevent labor force participation at older
ages from falling even faster. Most notable may be the increase in the availability of white-collar employment, which tends to make less demand on
physical strength. Increases in part-time employment opportunities have
made work more feasible for those wishing a limited schedule, although the
increase in part-time jobs may itself have been partly stimulated by the supply of older workers.
Short-Run and Long-Run Financing Problems
Issues have arisen with respect to both the short-run and long-run financial situation of the social security system. The Administration is proposing
measures to deal with both of these problems.
Legislation has resulted in increases in benefit awards as a percentage of
preretirement earnings, from 32 percent in 1965 to 43 percent in 1975 for
the median wage earner aged 65 years and over. Other liberalizations in
benefits have occurred, such as the increase in the dependent widow's
pension from 82.5 percent to 100 percent of the husband's benefit if neither
claimed benefits before age 65. Increases in early retirements have also contributed to rising outlays. Despite increases in the payroll tax rate (from
8.4 percent in 1969 to 9.9 percent in 1975) and in the maximum of earnings
to be taxed (from $7,800 in 1969 to $15,300 in 1976) receipts have not
risen as rapidly as benefits.
The tax shortfall has been exacerbated by the high levels of unemployment and the relatively slow growth of earnings in the past few years. Preliminary figures for 1975 indicate that expenditures exceeded payroll tax
receipts by $2.6 billion, or 4.2 percent of tax receipts. Total expenditures,
including administrative costs, exceeded total receipts, including interest on
assets, by $1.6 billion, or 2.4 percent. The cyclical component of the problem will eventually diminish with the economic recovery, although a $4.4billion deficit is forecast for 1976, and the trust fund will be permanently
reduced. In response to the decline in the trust fund the Administration is
proposing to increase the combined social security tax rate paid by employers and employees by 0.6 percentage point as of 1977. This increase will
enable the trust fund to be maintained at a level of at least one-third of
outgo for at least the next 5 years.
Projections of the social security system indicate that program costs relative to payroll receipts, under present law, are likely to escalate considerably.
The size of the projected shortfall depends on assumptions about the birth
rate, the rate of inflation, and the growth rate of real wages. Under commonly used assumptions (births per woman of 2.1, a 4 percent rate of
inflation, and a 2 percent growth rate in real wages), expenditures would
rise to 22 percent of taxable payroll by the year 2030, an amount which, if
benefits were to be matched by tax receipts, would imply a social security
tax rate about double today's level. However, with a lower fertility rate
116
(1.7) and more pessimistic assumptions about inflation (5 percent) and
real wage growth (1.5 percent), social security expenditures would require
taxes of 32 percent of payrolls by the year 2030. Optimistic economic
assumptions, on the other hand, combined with a projected increase in the
fertility rate to 2.5, lead to payroll taxes of 15 percent of the total payroll by 2030. Even this would represent a 50 percent increase in the present
tax rate.
One reason the long-run social security projections described above are so
high is that 1972 legislation provided for the double-indexing of social
security benefits. Under the legislation, once a person starts getting benefits
the amount is kept constant in real terms through automatic adjustments tied
to increases in the CPI. However, the legislation inadvertently provided for
a second effect of inflation on future benefits for those who are now working,
since the schedule that relates retirement benefits to past earnings was also
tied to the CPI. In this way replacement rates, the ratio of retirement
benefits to average wages in the year before retirement, can automatically
rise as a result of inflation. It has been estimated that, under current law,
if nominal wages increase at 6 percent and the CPI at 4 percent per year,
replacement rates for the median wage earner at age 65 would increase
from 43 percent in 1976 to 59 percent in 2030. For low-wage workers, the
increase would be from 63 percent to 99 percent over the same period
and would exceed 100 percent by the year 2040. This rise in replacement
rates for those retiring in the future is estimated to add about 26 percent
to program costs by the year 2030, compared to a system in which replacement rates remain at the 1975 level.
The Administration will propose a specific plan to modify the system so
that benefit levels will rise at the same rate as average wages. The goal is to
make a person's benefits rise solely in accordance with wages during his
working years and in accordance with the GPI in years after his retirement.
MEDICAL CARE
The provision of medical care services in the United States is largely
private, but government plays a major and increasing role in the financing
of medical expenditures. Between fiscal 1950 and fiscal 1975 total health
expenditures rose from 4.5 percent to 8.3 percent of GNP (Table 35). During the same period the Federal share of the total health bill rose from
12 percent to 29 percent, an expenditure in fiscal 1975 of $34 billion. Federal
funding of the hospital component of health expenditures has increased even
more dramatically, paying 39 percent of the Nation's hospital bill in fiscal
1975. As a result of the expansion of Federal and State funds and of private
insurance, consumers directly paid only 8 percent of all hospital expenditures. Consumers paid nearly all of the remainder indirectly through taxes
and insurance premiums.
The two major Federal programs are medicare and medicaid, which were
enacted as part of the Social Security Amendments of 1965. Medicare is a
117
TABLE 35.—Total health expenditures and personal health expenditures
selected fiscal years, 1940— 75
by source of funds,
[Fiscal years; percent, except as noted]
Type of expenditure and
source of funds
1940
1960
1965
1970
12 0
4 5
25 9
38 9
24.7
69 2
7 2
36 5
118 5
8 3
25.5
1950
1975
Total health expenditures:
3 9
Amount (billions of dollars)
Percent of GNP
Percent funded by public
4.1
20.2
5.2
5.9
24.5
42.2
Personal health expenditures:
Amount (billions of dollars)
Percent distribution by source of funds:
Total
. .
Direct payments
Third party payments
Private i nsurance
Other private
Federal
State and local
_
.
_
.
__.
10 4
22 7
33 5
60 1
103 2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
82.0
18.0
68 3
55.3
44.6
20.7
52.5
47.5
24.7
40 4
32.6
67.4
26.5
2.7
3.9
..
..
3 4
100.0
_ .
11.4
31.7
8.5
2.3
9.2
3 0
9.4
10.8
12.4
2.0
8.5
12.3
59.7
24.0
15
22.3
11.9
1.2
27.7
12.0
Hospital expenditures:
Amount (billions of dollars) .
Percent distribution by source of funds:
Total funds
Direct payments.. .
Third party payments
Private
Public
._.
.
3.7
8.5
13.2
25.9
46.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
34.2
65.8
20.1
45.7
18.6
81.4
39.4
42.0
18.5
81.5
44.0
37.5
12.3
87.7
36.9
50.8
92.0
37.0
55.0
8.0
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (Social Security Administration).
Federal program with uniform benefits available to the aged,, to certain
disabled persons covered by social security, and to those with end-stage renal
(kidney) disease. Medicare includes hospital insurance financed through
social security taxes, with benefits subject to a $104 deductible as well as various copayments after the 60th day of hospitalization. A physician reimbursement program is included which requires a monthly premium of $6.70,
with benefits subject to a $60 deductible and 20 percent coinsurance. Federal expenditures on medicare doubled from 1970 to 1975. In fiscal 1976
they are expected to reach $17.4 billion. Fiscal 1976 Federal expenditures
per enrollee are estimated at $717, but expenditures per beneficiary receiving hospital insurance benefits are estimated at $2,082 and for those receiving supplementary medical insurance benefits, $355.
Medicaid is funded by the States with Federal contributions accounting
for from 50 to 78 percent of costs. The law provides categorical coverage of
participants in the AFDC program; in 1974, 90 percent of AFDC recipients obtained medicaid benefits. Also covered are most of the aged, blind,
and disabled in the supplemental security income program. Many States
have also extended coverage to the medically indigent. Medicaid benefits
and the population covered vary considerably across the States. In 1974, two
States, California and New York, received 30 percent of all medicaid benefits, although they had only about 17 percent of the poverty population.
Federal expenditures on medicaid have also increased rapidly and are estimated to be $8.2 billion in fiscal 1976, averaging $606 per participant. In
118'
addition to medicare and medicaid the Federal Government provides health
care for veterans and military personnel (costing $6.5 billion in fiscal 1976),
as well as for Indians and other groups ($2 billion in fiscal 1976), and it
subsidizes medical research and physician education ($3 billion in fiscal
1976).
The influence of government on medical care extends beyond its
spending programs, however. For example, by exempting from taxable
income an employer's contributions for health insurance, the government
indirectly encourages the purchase of more insurance. Federal and State
governments impose regulatory controls on hospitals, and States regulate
the training and licensing of physicians and other health professionals.
Thus government has considerable direct and indirect influence on the quantity, quality, distribution, and price of medical care in the United States.
This review of medical care and the role of Federal programs centers on:
(1) The relation between changes in health status and changes in medical
expenditures; (2) the personal financial impact of medical expenses; and
(3) the relation between health insurance and resource allocation.
HEALTH STATUS AND MEDICAL EXPENDITURES
The medical care system is clearly important in maintaining the Nation's
health. But the relation between various measures of health status and expenditures on medical care suggests that medical care is only one of a large
number of factors affecting health.
Dramatic declines in mortality occurred during the first 50 years of this
century mainly because of improved sanitation, heating, and other amenities, along with significant breakthroughs in medical technology. The development of vaccines, penicillin, and other drugs led to the control of many
infectious diseases. Despite a relatively low level of medical expenditures
and little public financing, access to medical care was apparently sufficient
to ensure a general dissemination of these medical gains.
Since 1960 there have been substantial increases in expenditures on medical care. Infant mortality rates have declined—from 24.7 deaths in the first
year of life per 1,000 live births in 1965 to 16.5 in 1974—partly because of
the decline in high-risk births (e.g., births that are a mother's fifth or more).
However, life expectancy at age one has barely changed for males since 1960,
though for females there has been some increase.
Studies of the relation between income and mortality among the States
indicate that higher income actually tends to be positively associated with
higher mortality, even though expenditures on medical care increase with
income. Many of the factors increasing mortality, such as pollution and
sedentary white-collar work, are also associated with high income. Research
studies show that, after controlling for these factors as well as education and
income, increases in health expenditures are associated with declines in mortality, but the effect is very slight. Moreover, at the same level of income
and health expenditure, increases in educational attainment are strongly
associated with lower mortality.
119
Comparisons across developed countries also indicate that there is no
simple relation between health and income or health expenditures. Among
the OEGD countries, life expectancy for males at age 10 tends to fall somewhat as income measured by gross domestic product (GDP) increases, even
though health expenditures seem to be strongly related to GDP. A fairly
strong negative relation is found, however, between infant mortality and
income. These patterns are illustrated by the contrast between Greece and
the United States. Although per capita GDP is about 4 times higher in the
United States and per capita health expenditures are 10 times as high,
life expectancy at birth is 72 years for Greek males and 67 years for
American males. For females, the difference is smaller: 76 years for Greeks
and 75 years for Americans. And infant mortality rates are higher in Greece:
25.3 in 1973 compared to 17.6 in the United States.
There are wide differences among the developed countries with respect to
public funding and provision of care, which some believe has an important
effect on health, particularly of the poor. The United States tends to rely
more on private insurance or personal expenditures than do most developed
countries. But there is no indication that access to physicians' and hospital services in the United States is actually more restricted than in countries with nationalized health insurance or health care. For example, one
study of visits to physicians in 1964 compared the situation in the United
States before medicare and medicaid with that in Sweden, where a substantially greater proportion of physicians' services are paid for by national health
insurance. The incidence of reported symptoms of sickness was higher in
Sweden, but the percentage who saw a doctor when they had a symptom
was the same in both countries (46 percent). The ratio of visits to
the incidence of symptoms was, however, somewhat lower in the
United States for low-income persons (42 percent versus 46 percent for
Sweden) and higher for high-income persons in 1964 (51 percent versus
48 percent in Sweden). In 1971 a second survey showed an increase in the
ratio for all income levels in the United States (50 percent), with the lowest
income group close to the level of the highest income group (52 percent and
54 percent respectively). No data are available for Sweden in 1971. These
general findings—that in the United States there are a similar number of
visits to physicians per reported symptom as in other developed countries
with greater subsidization of medical care—are confirmed by other studies
comparing a broader range of countries, including those with nationalized
health services.
The United States, however, has high mortality rates despite seemingly
low sickness rates and high utilization of medical resources. One possible
explanation is that the higher mortality in the United States is not the result
of chronic illness susceptible to medical treatment, but is due to illness less
readily affected by medical technology. The unusually high rates of mortality
in the United States from cardiovascular diseases give this hypothesis some
120
support. These diseases, it should be noted, are more likely to be influenced
by life-style and environmental factors.
When health and income are compared across families in the United
States, persons with low incomes are found to have poorer health, as
measured by such indexes as days spent in bed and infant mortality rates,
than those with high income who live in the same area. In part, the relation
occurs because sickness can cause low income. But as was the case with
international and State comparisons, detailed studies cast doubt that income or access to medical resources plays a significant role in explaining these
differences in health. In fact, in recent years the poor have spent more days
in the hospital and visited doctors at least as often as those who were not
poor. Moreover, as noted above, a similar incidence of visits to physicians pel
reported symptom was found for high- and for low-income levels in 1971.
Even taking account of differences in sickness, overall access to treatment
seems fairly equalized.
Education has been found to be strongly associated with health in the
United States and seems to account for the positive relation between
income and health among persons living in the same area. Even when
health expenditures are held constant, the relation between education and
health is important. Education could affect health because those with more
education are more aware of the effects on health of smoking, diet, and
exercise. Evidence suggests that people with more education are more skilled
in using medical resources and are better able to detect warning signals
of illness. Of course, to some extent the chain of causation may also run
the other way: those with better health may also obtain more schooling.
These studies of the factors affecting health status suggest that large additional expenditures on medical care may be a very costly way of obtaining
small improvements in measured health status for this country. Apart
from medical care, there are other ways in which the Nation's health
may be improved. New advances are likely to result from research on medical
technology and drugs, as in the past. Rising levels of education should tend
to improve the health of the population. More important may be further research on, and the spread of current knowledge about, the effect of life-style
and environment on health status.
HEALTH INSURANCE, HEALTH EXPENDITURES, AND FAMILY INCOME
Given the current level of medical resources, it is important to distinguish
between the effects on health of small changes in medical expenditures and
the effects of the absence of any medical care at all. Because medical care is
beneficial, and the incidence of serious illness is generally unpredictable,
people prefer to have medical insurance so that large unpredictable expenditures can be more easily budgeted on a routine basis.
A large proportion of the U.S. population is covered by private health insurance. On the basis of a survey of households, it is estimated that about
78 percent of the population have private health insurance for hospital care
and 76 percent have surgical benefits.
121
Virtually all persons 65 years old and over are covered by medicare.
The percentage of this group with private insurance dropped from 54 percent
in 1962 to 45 percent in 1967 after medicare was introduced. Since then,
however, an increasing proportion have been purchasing private insurance
which supplements medicare by paying for deductibles and coinsurance. The
low-income elderly are eligible for medicaid, which supplemented medicare
for close to one-fifth of the elderly in 1974.
According to household survey estimates, in 1974 about 38 million Americans under age 65 had no private insurance against hospital costs, and 41
million were without surgical insurance. An estimated 40 percent (15 million) of the uninsured under 65 years of age were from families with an
annual income below $6,400.
However, an unknown proportion of the uninsured have other sources of
coverage or access to free or low-cost care provided by public sources. No
unduplicated count of those receiving benefits under all programs is available. In 1974, 23 million persons received medicaid benefits at some time during the year, of whom about 19 million were under age 65, including 14 million AFDC recipients. In fiscal 1975, Veteran's hospitals provided free hospitalization to 1.1 million persons and 14.8 million doctors' visits on an outpatient basis. The miliary provided care for the 2 million men and women in
the Armed Forces; 7 million ex-military personnel and their dependents, and
the dependents of current military personnel were eligible for care under the
civilian health and medical care program for the uniformed services
(CHAMPUS). Care was also provided to Indians and others through the
Public Health Service. State and local government spending for health,
excluding medicaid, exceeded $8.5 billion in 1975.
Another way to evaluate the extent of coverage for high-cost medical
expenses among the poor is to examine the data on expenditures incurred
and sources of payment. In 1970, persons in lower-income families (defined
here as an annual income of $5,700 or less for a family of four) incurred
expenditures of $229 per year on medical care, compared to expenditures of
$254 by those who were not poor (Table 36). Sources of funding differed,
however: medicare, medicaid, and other government programs paid for
46 percent of the expenditures of lower-income families, compared to 12
percent for other families, who, as expected, relied more on private health
insurance. Out-of-pocket medical care payments averaged $77 for those
with lower income and $127 for those with higher income.
Hospital expenditures are likely to be less discretionary than other medical
expenses, and the poor incurred somewhat higher hospital expenditures than
those with higher incomes. However, both groups were liable for only a small
fraction of hospital bills. Mean out-of-pocket hospital expenses for those
requiring a hospital stay were only $14 for the poor and $16 for others.
Although lower-income groups seemed to have obtained the same amount
of health resources as others in 1970, mostly subsidized by public sources, outlays on health consumed a larger proportion of their income. Outlays includ-
122
TABLE 36.—Expenditures per person for different health services by family income status and
source of payments, 1970
Health expenditures
(dollars)
Payment as percent of total health expenditures
Type of expenditure and family
income status 1
Total
Total expenditures per person. _
Below near poverty
Above near poverty
Out of
pocket
Total
Medicaid
and other Medicare Voluntary
insurance
free care
Out of
pocket
Other
sources2
248
229
254
116
77
127
100
100
100
11
28
6
8
18
6
29
16
33
47
34
50
4
5
5
104
113
101
16
14
16
100
100
100
17
30
13
15
28
11
46
23
53
15
12
16
6
6
7
Physician expenditures.
Below near poverty
Above near poverty
65
57
67
33
22
36
100
100
100
8
28
1
6
14
4
31
16
34
51
39
54
6
Other health expenditures s _ _
Below near poverty
Above near poverty
79
59
86
67
41
75
100
100
100
6
22
2
1
2
1
6
3
8
85
69
87
1
3
1
In patient hospital expenditures
Below near poverty
Above near poverty.
5
1
Near poverty is a measure above the poverty threshold used by the Bureau of the Census. It was $5,700 for a family of
four in 1970.
2 Includes free and non-free care provided by Veterans Administration hospitals, workers' compensation, and military
and civilian health and medical care programs for the uniformed services and their families.
> Includes expenditures on prescription and nonprescription drugs, dental care, appliances such as eyeglasses, care by
nonphysician medical practitioners (nurses, psychologists, Christian Science practitioners), ambulance service, other outpatient services, and supplies.
Note.—Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (Bureau of Health Services Research and Evaluation).
ing both out-of-pocket expenditures and payments for health insurance
premiums were estimated to be 9 percent of income on average for lowerincome families and 4 percent for higher-income families.
It appears that a small proportion of the population experiences catastrophic medical expenditures relative to their income in any year. In 1970,
1 percent of all families were estimated to incur medical and psychiatric expenditures of $5,000 or more. Eighty percent of the expenditures over $5,000
were paid for by private insurance, medicare, medicaid, and sources other
than the family. About 8 percent of all families had outlays (out-of-pocket
expenses plus insurance premiums) of $1,000 or more, of which 40 percent
represented routine payments for insurance premiums. For lower-income
families, 2 percent had outlays of $1,000 or more during the year; and at
higher income levels, 10 percent had such outlays. These medical outlays
which include out-of-pocket expenses and insurance premiums exceeded 15
percent of income for 10 percent of all families, and the proportion was 25
percent for lower-income families and 4.5 percent for higher-income families.
These estimates overstate the relation between outlays and income, however, because lower-income families with large health outlays are more
likely to have a current income that is temporarily depressed below the usual
level because of the sickness of an earner.
The data reviewed on expenditures and outlays refer to 1970. Since then,
medicaid has expanded: from serving 15.5 million persons, it served 23 million persons in 1974, and third-party payments (both public and private)
have accounted for a larger share of all expenditures.
123
Most Americans do have some coverage for health expenditures through
public or private insurance or publicly provided care. However, it is believed
that a substantial proportion do not have coverage for very large medical
expenses relative to their income and assets, although it is also believed that
such coverage is spreading rapidly. The Administration has proposed providing catastrophic health insurance coverage for medicare participants.
This proposal is discussed below.
RESOURCE ALLOCATION AND COSTS
One of the major concerns about medical care is the sharp rise in
costs. Since 1950 the medical component of the CPI has increased much
faster than the overall CPI (Table 37).
Prices of hospital services have increased at a much faster rate than
physicians' fees or other medical services. In part this is the result of an
increase in the quality of hospital services not fully reflected in the CPI. As
indicated in Table 37, when total hospital expenditures per patient day are
deflated by a crude price index for hospital inputs, it appears that increases
in real resources explain a substantial amount of the rate of increase in
expenditures per patient day. During the 5-year period since medicare and
medicaid were introduced, 1965 to 1970, the rate of increase of real resources
per patient day nearly doubled and accounted for about one-half of the
nominal increase in hospital expenses per patient day.
TABLE 37.—Changes in prices of various medical and hospital services and expenses, 1950—75
[Percent change; annual rate]
Hospital expenses and services
per patient day *
Consumer prices
Period
Annual average:
1950 to 1955
1955 to 1960
1960 to 1965
1965 to 1970
1970 to 1975
Real expenses 4
Medical care services
All
items
2.2
2.0
1.3
4.2
6.7
All services
less medical
care services
73.8
73.3
1.8
5.4
6.3
Expenses 3
All 2
Semi private
room
Physicians'
fees
6.9
6.3
5.8
3.4
3.3
2.8
6.6
6.9
4.2
4.4
3.1
7.3
7.6
13.9
10.2
Assump- Assumption A 5 tion B «
8.2
6.9
6.7
12.7
12.5
3.3
3.3
3.3
6.0
4.8
4.3
3.5
4.2
7.4
5.1
4.5
6.5
2.8
3.7
6.5
6.6
7.8
1.6
2.5
7.3
Change from preced-
"W:
1972
1973
1974. .
1975
4.3
3.3
6.2
11.0
9.1
5.3
3.8
4.3
9.2
9.1
7.3
3.7
4.4
12.2
6.6
4.7
10.7
17.2
10.3
12.6
6.9
3.1
3.3
9.2
12.3
13.2
13.4
7.6
11.2
17.6
1
Beginning 1965, patient days have been adjusted for outpatient visits.
2 Includes some medical care services not shown separately.
Based on data reported by the American Hospital Association for community hospitals for year ending September 30.
4
Labor and nonlabor inputs adjusted for price changes.
5
Deflated by a weighted average of the consumer price index and an index of hospital wages.
6
Deflated by a weighted average of the consumer price index and adjusted hourly earnings index in the private nonfarm
economy.
7
Change for all services.
3
Sources: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics), American Hospital Association, and Council of Economic
Advisers.
124
Resistance by taxpayers to the increasing burden of medicare and medicaid, and pressures to restrain medical costs have led in the past to pressures for a more formal mechanism to control costs. During the period of
the Economic Stabilization Program, starting in August 1971 and ending
April 1974, the health industry was placed under more stringent price
controls than most industries. In addition to price ceilings on individual
services, controls were also placed on the increase in total annual hospital
expenditures. These controls in effect curtailed the amount as well as the
price of the service provided. From 1972 to 1973 increases in hospital
resource use per patient day did slow. However, it is not clear whether the
slower growth rate represented a gain in efficiency through a more careful
use of resources, a curtailment of quality improvements that would have
been desirable, or less efficiency through a greater rate of admission of less
serious cases. Since the end of controls, real hospital resources have increased
at a very rapid rate, partly to "catch up" and perhaps partly in anticipation
of a permanent controls program. Hospital expenses per patient day increased at the very high rate of 18 percent from 1974 to 1975.
Some of this expansion in medical resources is probably a desired quality
improvement. There is considerable evidence, however, that much is a consequence of the growth of private insurance and public funding, which has led
to a system where "third parties" pay for an increasing share of medical
services, particularly hospital services. The most common form of health
insurance has low or no deductibles and low cost-sharing (coinsurance),
especially for hospital care. This type of coverage has been shown to have a
substantial effect on the price and quantity of services. For example, families
with insurance have a greater number and longer length of stays in hospitals
and more visits to physicians. The patients may themselves prefer this extra
health care because the extra cost to them is small. In addition, hospitals
and doctors, knowing that most of the costs will be paid by third parties who
are not in a position to decide on what services should be provided, are also
likely to expand the quality, quantity, and price of their services. As a result,
patients receive services that they would not value enough to pay for if they
were given additional income equal to the cost of the service. In this way too
many resources, and probably not the optimal kind, are allocated to medical
services. The system encourages the development and use of high-cost techniques and a reliance on institutional rather than home care.
Unlike most other forms of insurance, private health insurance is largely
purchased through the employer in a group policy. This practice has been
substantially encouraged by the income tax and payroll tax systems, which
exempt from taxation the employer's contribution for this form of insurance
even though it is really an addition to the worker's income. Up to a point,
it is to the mutual benefit of employer and employee to favor wage increases
in the form of untaxed fringe benefits rather than in cash. As workers have
moved into increasingly higher marginal tax brackets, this incentive has
increased. In 1953 employers paid all of the costs for health insurance
125
597-578 O - 76 - 9
premiums for 10 percent of employees and none of the costs for 41 percent. By 1970 employers paid alj of the costs for 39 percent and none of
the costs for only 8 percent The Government further reduces the cost of
insurance by allowing a deduction under the personal income tax of half
the cost of premiums paid by the taxpayer up to $150. All medical expenditures, including the other half of the premium cost, that exceed 3 percent of
income may also be deducted. Estimated tax losses in fiscal 1977 are $4.2
billion for exclusion of employers' contributions and $2.1 billion for itemized
medical deductions, including insurance premiums.
As a result of these tax subsidies, the cost to the consumer of paying for
medical care indirectly through insurance is sharply reduced. Indeed, it has
been estimated that in 1975 the Federal Government paid 20 to 22 percent
of the premium costs of insurance through forgone tax receipts. Even taking
into account the insurance companies' administrative costs and the costs
of induced additional medical care, a result of the tax subsidy is that
families with group coverage, paid for at least in part by the employer, spend
less on medical care by buying insurance than they would have done by
paying directly. In an unsubsidized market, consumers would have the incentive to pay out of pocket for routine budgetable medical care and to
confine their insurance to very large and unpredictable expenditures. Faced
with insurance at a substantial discount, they are induced to buy more
comprehensive insurance, covering expenditures from the first dollar.
The problems of insurance are exacerbated in the case of medicare and
medicaid because the mechanism of higher premiums, which may provide
weak incentives to economize in our subsidized private insurance market,
hardly works at all in the public system. Although there are medicare deductibles, there is no copayment for the first 60 days of hospital care. Under
medicaid there are generally no deductibles and no coinsurance for hospital
and physicians' services.
Perhaps the main feature that fosters cost increases is the method by which
medicare, medicaid, and most Blue Gross policies reimburse the hospitals.
These insurers pay a share of the hospital's costs, based on the percentage
of all costs accounted for by their respective beneficiaries. Because hospitals
have the assurance that a large percentage of their revenues will be based
on cost reimbursement, there is little direct restraint to keep costs down. The
Federal Government is now experimenting with prospective reimbursement
schemes, whereby hospitals are told in advance how much they will be
reimbursed per unit of service provided (e.g., patient admissions, patient
days).
MEDICAID AND MEDICARE PROPOSALS
Medicare and medicaid have an important role to play because many
of the poor and aged have difficulty financing health insurance premiums,
deductibles, and cost-sharing. In part, medicaid has expanded the use of
medical services by the poor and has changed patterns of use from the
public hospital or charity clinic to private doctors and nonpublic hospitals.
126
Medicaid benefits are unevenly distributed across States, however, with some
of the wealthiest States receiving more than four times as much Federal
money per low-income person as poorer States. In addition many other
health care programs are funded under narrow categorical legislation which
makes coordination difficult.
For these reasons the President has proposed to merge medicaid and 15
other programs, such as mental health services and neighborhood centers, to
form a single State block grant for health services under the proposed Financial Assistance for Health Care Act. The grant would be distributed
among States according to such specific measures of need as the number of
low-income persons. This would replace the present method of determining
the distribution of medicaid funds, and funds for other formula and project
grants, which use a wide variety of often arbitrary criteria such as narrow
categories of disease or family status. The new formula grant would redistribute Federal funds more equitably, since need would be the basic criterion. The new formula grant proposes Federal funding of $10 billion for
fiscal 1977.
Under the proposed legislation, States would be provided with maximum flexibility to allocate their funds among programs. In addition, States
would be required to undertake planning and cost control activities and
would also be able to experiment with different forms of giving the aid—
whether through insurance vouchers, Health Maintenance Organizations, or
direct State provision. Thus some innovations in health financing which
would have implications for slowing the increase in medical costs may be
stimulated.
The Administration has also proposed the Medicare Improvements Act
of 1976, which would provide better protection for the elderly and disabled
from catastrophic health expenses and would also help to control costs.
Under the cost-sharing reforms, beneficiaries would pay the deductible and
10 percent of hospital and nursing home charges until the proposed maximum of $500 in out-of-pocket expenditures is reached, after which the Government would pay all costs for covered services. For physicians' services,
beneficiaries would pay a deductible of $77 per year and 20 percent of the
charges, up to a proposed $250 of out-of-pocket expenditures. All expenditures above that would be paid by the Government. It is also proposed to
limit annual increases in Federal reimbursements to medical care providers
to 7 percent for a day of hospital care and 4 percent for physicians' services.
These measures are expected to result in Federal cost savings of $2.2 billion
in 1977 compared to expected costs under the current medicare provisions.
127
CHAPTER 4
The World Economy in 1975
T
HE 1974-75 RECESSION APPEARS TO DIFFER from previous
recessions, not only in its breadth and depth but also in the length of
time it is taking for recoveries to take hold. Although the fall in activity
rates generally seems to have halted by the end of summer, in many
countries recoveries seem slow and appear fragile. The quintupling of the
price of oil over the past several years has been a major factor deepening the
world recession and inhibiting economic recovery. First, it ensured the simultaneity of the recessions in many countries. Second, structural changes necessary to adjust to the increased cost of energy have compounded the uncertainties created by the inflationary wave of 1972-73.
Because of the historically very strong inflationary pressures that preceded
the downturn and persisted well into the recession, authorities in many
countries were cautious in the timing and degree to which they moved
toward expansionary policies late in 1974 and in early 1975. Since mid1975, however, the thrust of policy has become broadly expansionary in
almost every industrial country and policy measures put in place have cumulated to impart a very considerable stimulus. As a result, individual economies now seem to be poised for a return to acceptable growth paths, particularly since private sector assets have increased and liquidity positions
have improved considerably over the past year. Recoveries could therefore
broaden out very quickly. Just as the downturn was deepened because
activity fell at the same time in many countries, recovery paths may become
considerably steeper than now appears likely because upturns in individual
countries, led by the recovery in the United States, are beginning to reinforce each other.
THE CURRENT STATE OF THE CYCLE
By early 1975 the slowdown in economic activity that had started in late
1973 in a number of industrial countries had broadened into the most widespread recession since World War II. By May, industrial output in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) area
had fallen to a trough, 12 percent below the cyclical peak reached in
November 1973. This drop in economic activity in the industrial countries
128
necessarily had severe repercussions throughout the rest of the world. Consequently in 1975 the volume of world trade registered its first significant
decline in three decades. At the low point in the first quarter of 1975 the flow
of goods across national borders was 11 percent below its historical high,
reached in the second quarter of 1974. With the broadening and deepening of the recession, the thrust of economic policy in most major industrial
countries turned increasingly expansionary during the year.
The bottom of the recession appears to have been reached, at least for
most industrial countries, sometime during the summer of 1975. The recovery first became apparent in the United States and Japan early in the
year and is now in train in Germany and France. In the other major
economies the downward trend seems to have been halted. But the underlying strength of a broad upturn in activity is contingent upon the restoration of confidence in the private sector.
DOMESTIC DEMAND
In the major foreign industrial countries the stabilization of economic
activity around mid-1975 was largely the result of previous increases in
government expenditures and the ending of the inventory adjustment.
Earlier in 1975 inventory decumulation constituted a considerable drag on
activity almost everywhere. By midyear reduced liquidation of inventories
began to lend some support to industrial activity, and by the autumn industrial production was moving up, albeit slowly, in an increasing number
of countries (Table 38).
TABLE 38.—Changes
in
industrial
production
in
selected
industrial
countries,
1974-75
[Percent change; seasonally adjusted]
Peak
Country
Peak to
December
1975
1974
United States .
Canada
Japan.
France
Germany
Italy
. .
United Kingdom
_
Nov. 1973
Mar. 1974
Nov. 1973
Aug. 1974
May 1974
Apr. 1974
Oct. 1973
From preceding month in 1975 to:
Peak to
June
—7.9
—3.2
-12.9
—16.4
—11.6
-16.9
July
August
1.0
1.8
2! 2
—1'.5
0
2.0
—15.4
—5.8
-8.0
—15.0
—7.7
12.4
—9.7
-13.9
—10.7
Sep-
tember
1.8
—1.2
—2.7
—2.0
1.8
.9
—1.8
1.6
Q
2io
19.1
1.7
October
0.4
—.5
.6
2,8
1.0
—.3
1.2
November
0.5
— i.i
0
1.9
1.8
.1
Source: National sources.
Final demand, however, has not turned up decisively. One relatively
bright spot in the private demand situation is the positive response of residential construction activity to easier monetary policy and to direct fiscal
measures. But the upturn in private consumption demand has remained hesitant, except in the United States, and so far has been unable to provide
the consumption-led upswing hoped for in a number of countries. This
reflects in part developments in the growth of disposable personal incomes.
In real terms disposable incomes have grown only slowly, despite the
129
lessening of price pressures and the adoption of various fiscal measures
designed to support the growth of income. Incomes have been affected first
and foremost by the large rise in unemployment,, although income maintenance programs have tended to offset a significant part of earnings losses.
In addition, increases in wage rates have slowed considerably, and wage
drift has diminished because of the deteriorating employment situation and
rising short-time work.
Perhaps equally important for the behavior of consumer markets was the
rise in household saving rates to postwar highs during the year (Table 39).
To some extent the increase in the propensity to save in many industrial
countries was directly related to the recession. It reflected uncertainties
about the employment outlook and the large fall in the demand for housing
and durable goods. These purchases usually require large down payments
which are often financed by drawing down savings and substantial borrowing which implies additional dissavings. But in large part, saving rates also
increased because of the inflationary environment of the past several years.
Real financial assets were eroded significantly during 1972-75; and the large
price rises for goods and services purchased frequently, such as food and
fuel, reduced discretionary spending power and led to an increase in precautionary savings. The desire to rebuild real asset positions and renewed
uncertainties about price prospects help explain why saving rates, although
declining somewhat, have remained remarkably high. (For a fuller discussion of saving behavior in the United States, see Chapters 1 and 2.)
TABLE 39.—Personal or household saving rates in selected industrial countries, 1965-75
[Percent; seasonally adjusted]
1975
1965-72
average
United States _
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
6.7
19.1
13 0
8.8
1Q7Q
107H
1Q7/I
1
7.4
20.3
14.0
9.1
8.0
22.5
14.1
11.3
7.5
24.3
14.8
12.7
III
II
7.2
24.0
16.5
14.2
9.9
7.9
23.5
17.0
13.0
24.3
15.0
13.7
Note.—For the United States and the United Kingdom, the rate is personal saving as percent of personal disposable
income. For other countries, the rate is household saving as percent of disposable income.
Source: National sources.
During the second half of 1975 retail sales were generally increasing and
consumer surveys indicated a moderate improvement in the way private
households were judging economic prospects. But unemployment continued
to increase, or at any rate did not decline (Table 40). By late 1975 the
number of unemployed in Western Europe reached postwar highs and on
average was almost twice as large as in 1974. And unless certain income
maintenance programs are extended, payments may begin to decline.
With the decline in demand, price pressures have been reduced. The moderation in the rate of price increases has in fact been dramatic in a number
of countries, especially in comparison with the performance in 1974 (Table
41). But in most countries the progress on the price side appears to be slow-
ISO
TABLE 40.—Unemployment rates, adjusted to U.S. concepts, in selected industrial countries,
1962-75
[Percent 1 ; seasonally adjusted]
Country
United States. _ .
Canada
Japan ..
France
.
Germany
Italy
Great Britain
1962-72
average
4.7
5.1
1.3
2.1
.6
3.6
3.1
1973
19 75
1974
1
4.9
5.6
1.3
2.9
10
3.8
2.9
II
8.7
7.3
1.8
4.2
4.0
4.0
4.3
8.1
7.0
1.7
3.9
3.2
3.0
3.5
5.6
5.4
1.4
3.1
2.1
3.1
2.9
III
8.6
7.2
1.9
4.4
4 6
3.6
5.6
IV
8.5
7 1
22.2
34.6
34 6
5.7
1 Unemployment as percent of the civilian labor force.
2 October.
3 October-November average.
Note.—The quarterly adjusted data for the European countries make use of annual adjustment factors and should be
viewed as approximate indicators under U.S. concepts. These data should be viewed as approximate only because of the
difficulty in adjusting very disparate concepts.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
TABLE 41.—Changes in consumer prices in selected industrial countries, 1962-75
[Percent change; annual rate]
1962-72
1975
1O7/I
average
United States
Canada...
Japan
France
Germany
Italy.
United Kingdom .
3.3
3.3
5.7
4 4
3 1
4.3
4.9
1
12 2
12.5
21.5
15 2
5.9
25.0
19.2
6.3
7.2
7.3
11.3
7.9
10.3
27.8
II
7.3
11.8
15.0
9.8
8.7
12.9
48.0
III
7.7
10.9
7.2
9.3
1.5
7.5
10.3
Oct
7.3
11.0
19.2
9.2
3.5
13.1
17.0
Nov
7.3
10.9
-6.7
7.7
3.5
13.7
14.3
Note.—Change from 1962-72 is based on annual data. Changes for 1974 and the quarters of 1975 are based on data for
end of month in period. The monthly changes are simple annual rates (monthly change times 12). Quarterly changes are
compounded annual rates.
Source: National sources.
ing, and inflation rates remain unacceptably high. Higher food and energy
prices and some increases in the prices of manufactured goods are putting
pressures on price levels well before the productivity gains that normally
accompany recoveries have had their full downward effect.
With the lessening of price pressures, new wage contracts have also moderated in some countries. But, because less progress has been made in containing inflation elsewhere, a number of countries—for example, Canada,
the United Kingdom, Belgium, Finland, and some other smaller countries—have instituted some type of incomes policy.
The evolution of consumption demand and interest rate movements may
be crucial to the eventual support the recovery can derive from a resumption
of investment spending. Capacity utilization is at very low levels over a wide
range of industries in many countries. Consequently, private investment
intention surveys have, until recently, shown continuous downward revisions
of projected expenditures. Latest surveys indicate that the erosion of business confidence may have come to a halt, but strong support to activity
should not be expected from the side of private investment expenditures
over the next several quarters.
131
EXTERNAL DEMAND
At the same time that private consumption expenditures failed to impart
the upward impetus to economic activity hoped for earlier in 1975, external
demand fell. Countries experiencing a fall in internal demand in earlier
periods generally derived support to the level of economic activity from
foreign trade. But trade during the 1974—75 recession failed to conform
to this pattern because the cyclical downturn was simultaneous across countries. Trade volumes fell significantly for the first time in postwar history,
mainly because of a drop in demand among industrial countries for each
other's products.
Imports of major industrial countries began to decline in the autumn of
1974, reflecting both weak final demand and inventory decumulation.
The latter may have been particularly important because of the generally
high import content of inventories in many countries. In value terms the fall
in imports amounted to almost 7 percent between the second half of 1974 and
the first half of 1975, and in volume terms imports fell by 11 percent.
Exports of industrial countries also fell during the first 8 months of 1975,
but less than imports (Table 42). Exports to OPEC and to Communist
countries have continued to grow, and shipments to lesser developed countries which are not members of OPEC (non-oil LDCs) have been reduced
relatively little. The fact that a large number of non-oil LDCs have been
able to maintain their import levels in the face of falling demand in industrial countries and rising oil prices largely reflects their much above average export earnings in the 2-year period to mid-1974. In addition, industrial countries, seeking to bolster their export activity as domestic demand
shrank, increased their extension of trade credits. Because of the cyclical
fall in imports and the somewhat better-sustained level of exports, there
have been significant shifts out of deficit in the trade balances of the industrial countries. These shifts are mirrored by larger deficits of non-oil LDCs
and shrinking surpluses of OPEC.
With the recession bottoming out around midyear, import demand in the
large industrial countries stabilized during the summer months, and trade
among industrial countries appears to have resumed its growth in the second
half of 1975. But increases in world trade are likely to be constrained to some
extent by a deceleration in the growth of import demand of OPEC and by a
possible slowdown in shipments to non-oil LDCs.
Although the slide in the exports from LDCs to the larger industrial countries seems to have been halted in recent months, the fall in commodity prices
from their cyclical peaks has yet to be reflected fully in earnings figures.
There is usually a considerable lag between a change in spot prices and a
change in unit values of trade because a fair amount of trade moves under
long-run contracts and contract rates take some time to adjust to new spot
prices. Lags also occur between the time orders are placed and prices agreed
upon and the time of actual shipments; hence trade values at any given time
132
TABLE 42.—Merchandise trade in selected industrial countries, 1973-75
[Billions of U.S. dollars»; seasonally adjusted annual rates]
19 74
Country and trade item
United States:
Exports
Imports.
Balance
1973
1975
1974
III
IV
.
II
III
Oct-Nov
average
71.4
70.4
1.0
98.3
103.6
-5.3
100.1
109.4
-9.3
106.4
111.9
-5.5
108.8
101.4
7.3
102.8
89.3
13.5
106.9
98.8
8.1
110.9
101.8
9.2
217.0
207.9
9.2
291.1
294.7
-3.8
304.2
309.7
-5.6
308.2
307.7
.5
317.0
300.8
16.4
310.3
290.1
20.1
296.9
291.3
5.5
299.7
303.4
-3.8
Canada:
Exports
Imports
Balance
25.4
22.7
2.7
33.1
31.5
1.6
34.5
33.6
.9
34.3
34.3
-.1
32.2
34.0
-1.8
32.0
32.7
-.7
31.9
32.9
-1.0
33.5
34.6
-1.1
Japan:
Exports
Imports
Balance
36.3
32.6
3.7
54.5
53.0
1.4
56.9
54.0
2.9
60.1
54.3
5.8
58.6
51.1
7.5
54.8
46.9
7.9
51.9
49.1
2.8
53.4
51.3
2.1
France:
Exports
Imports
Balance
36.7
35.2
1.4
46.6
50.0
-3.4
48.7
53.1
-4.4
49.6
52.0
-2.3
54.7
53.0
1.8
54.5
50.0
4.5
52.4
50.4
2.0
51.0
54.2
-3.?
67.6
55.0
12.7
89.6
69.9
19.7
91.2
73.1
18.1
93.1
73.6
19.5
93.8
74.5
19.4
93.5
76.5
17.0
85.9
73.2
12.7
284.7
73.8
10.9
Italy:
Exports
1 mports
Balance _.
22.2
27.9
-5.7
30.1
40.9
-10.9
33.1
44.8
-11.8
32.3
41.4
-9.1
34.3
36.5
-2.2
34.0
36.2
-2.2
35.3
38.0
-2.7
35.5
41.8
-6.3
United Kingdom:
Exports
Imports
Balance
28.8
34.4
-5.6
37.2
49.4
-12.2
39.8
51.1
-11.3
38.8
52.1
-13.3
43.4
51.7
-8.3
41.5
47.8
-6.4
39 5
47.7
-8.3
41 6
47.7
-6.2
Six other industrial
countries:
Exports
Imports
Balance
Germany:
Exports
Imports
Balance
.. .
* Data converted to dollars on the basis of average exchange rates as published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin.
2 October only.
Note.—Merchandise trade data for the United States, Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom are on a balance of
payments basis; others are on a customs basis. Imports for the United States are f.a.s. (free alongside ship) values; for
Germany and Italy, c.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) values; for othe- countries, f.o.b. (free on board) values. Exports
for the United States are f.a.s. values and for all other countries f.o.b. values.
Detail may not add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
and Council of Economic Advisers.
reflect prices of some earlier period. A second factor likely to inhibit the
growth of import demand of non-oil LDCs is that debt burdens are mounting as a consequence of growing trade deficits. Thus, external financing
difficulties may force curtailment of order activity in some of these countries. To a certain extent some smaller OECD countries, which were able
to maintain demand levels well into 1974 and early 1975, are beginning to
experience similar problems. External financing problems may be increased
by the recent rise in OPEC's export price of oil as it works its way through
the individual economies.
The oil-exporting countries are expected to continue to increase their import demand, though not as rapidly as in 1974 and 1975. Growth rates will
naturally tend to be lower because imports are expanding from a much
133
higher base than in 1973-74. More significantly, physical as well as emerging
financial constraints in the high-import-absorbing countries, such as Indonesia and Iran, are limiting growth in import demand. Recent data show
that a significant reduction in the rate of growth of export flows to the oilexporting countries as a group is in progress.
THE ROLE OF EXTERNAL DEMAND IN THE RECOVERY
Although little impetus to world recovery can be expected from changes in
the import demand of nonindustrial countries, the current resumption of
growth of domestic demand in the industrial countries could lend considerable support to world demand. Just as world trade during the recession fell
by more than might be expected from its past relationship to changes in
overall demand, trade may recover faster than one would normally expect
as demand in industrial countries begins to turn up.
A major factor in the resumption of growth in trading volumes is the
swing in the inventory cycle. As noted above, inventories in many countries
have a relatively high import content, hence trade flows are particularly
sensitive to inventory changes. In addition, the past recession has been one in
which expenditures for services have held up relatively well, while those for
goods fell disproportionately. As final demand begins to turn around, this
pattern is likely to be reversed and demand for goods will grow faster than
that for services. This will result in a stimulus to world trade over and above
what could be expected from the observed changes in total demand.
Although recovery paths as currently projected do not indicate a steep
upturn, the effect on world trade of the growth in demand that actually
is occurring should not be underestimated. The U.S. economy is moving from
a fall in real GNP of about 5 percent between the first half of 1974 and
the first half of 1975, to a rise of perhaps 7 percent or so from the first
half of 1975 to the first half of 1976. Such a shift alone would have a considerable effect in expanding the volume of world trade. In addition, recovery in the United States is being accompanied by similar, although perhaps somewhat smaller, shifts in the growth rates of other major industrial
economies. The swing in activity rates over the comparable period for the
six largest foreign economies is from a fall of 2 percent to a projected rise
of almost 4 percent, with the largest swing occurring in Germany. Changes
in demand of this sort produce significant effects on world trade at any
time. But because of the simultaneity of the upturns, these effects are
likely to be substantially magnified.
Hopes for recovery of domestic economic activity in most of the smaller
countries, and in a number of larger ones as well, have centered upon
export-led growth. Because of the depth and the length of the recession,
the authorities in some of these countries have been urging others, particularly the United States, to adopt more expansionary policies that would
produce greater external stimulus and thereby help put their economies
back on a satisfactory growth path. Our analysis indicates, however, that
134
further expansionary action in the United States—within reasonable
bounds—would do little to accelerate world recovery.
The evidence suggests that an additional 1 percentage point of growth
of the U.S. economy—over and above what is currently expected for 1976—
may produce an additional increase in the volume of world trade of no
more than 0.2 percent in that year. By 1977, partly because of multiplier
effects, the extra 1 percentage point of growth in U.S. demand could be expected to induce an expansion in world trade of 0.5 percent. The effect that
such a change in the growth of world trade would have on economic activity
in the major industrial countries is very small indeed and clearly cannot
be decisive to the path of world recovery. For example, the effect on German gross domestic product (GDP) would be virtually negligible: less
than 0.1 percent in 1976 and a bit over 0.1 percent by 1977. Effects on
other European countries would be of similar magnitude. Although the
impact on Canada and Japan would be somewhat greater, it would by no
means be of overwhelming significance. Canadian GDP in 1977 might be
0.4 percent higher than it would otherwise have been, and Japanese GDP
might be increased by 0.2 percent.*
As noted above, external demand began to revive in the second half of
1975 as the expansionary measures taken in many countries over the
past several quarters began to work through the several economies. A
resumption in the growth of export demand, such as is in progress now,
in addition to its direct effect on activity, can further quicken the pace of
world recovery by its effect on business confidence and on the general
economic climate. But a slightly faster growth in world trade than is now
foreseen cannot make the crucial difference in the turnaround in economic
activity in the industrial countries. The main impetus must clearly come
from internal demand. And the path of internal demand over the next
several quarters depends primarily upon the response of the private sector
to the domestic policy measures taken last year.
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
Governments in most of the industrial countries responded to the deepening recession early in 1975 and the continued weakness of final demand
through the summer by adopting successive measures designed to bring
their economies back to more normal rates of growth. Earlier in the year,
with inflation rates still high, expansionary measures, except in Germany,
tended mainly to reverse earlier restrictive policies and involved, for example,
the easing of credit and public expenditure ceilings. But since midyear
the thrust of policy has become broadly expansionary almost everywhere
except in Great Britain and Canada, where, however, policies had not been
*These calculations derive from special simulations produced by the LINK model
by Professor Lawrence R. Klein of the University of Pennsylvania. The LINK results
are in broad agreement with those derived from other econometric models and with
simpler calculations based solely on the relative importance of exports to the United
States for each of the economies in question.
135
notably restrictive earlier and where inflation rates continued high relative
to 1974 levels.
Discount rates have been cut, monetary aggregates have been growing
significantly faster than in 1974, and expansionary fiscal measures were
adopted in most major countries. Thus the fiscal and monetary stimuli built
into the various economies have been considerable. The fiscal packages announced at the end of the summer, excluding multiplier effects, amount to
roughly 3/2 percent of GNP in Italy, and 2*4 percent, l/ 2 percent, and J4
percent of GNP in France, Japan, and Germany, respectively. Although
some of these measures will not come into effect until later this year, they
are in addition to steps taken during the first half of 1975, and as such they
cumulate to considerably more than the impacts cited above. The large
budget deficits foreseen in most countries are to some extent cyclically determined ; but even on an estimated high-employment basis the shift in fiscal
deficits of some countries, and therefore in discretionary policy, appears
to be substantial. Monetary conditions have eased almost everywhere; and
interest rates, notably short-term rates, have come down significantly.
THE GENERAL OUTLOOK
With the policy measures now in place, the strength of confidence may be
the crucial element in determining the pace and breadth of the current
recovery. Over the past 12 months liquidity positions in the private sector
have improved significantly. Corporations' debt maturities have been
lengthened, and consumer debt outstanding is at low levels in relation to
disposable incomes. On the whole it appears that private sector demand
is mainly inhibited by uncertainty. With growing confidence, recovery paths
may well become steep, particularly because expansionary actions have
been taken simultaneously in many countries—as they had in 1971-72. In
contrast to 1972, however, purchasing power in oil-importing countries
continues to be siphoned off by the higher foreign price for oil. Furthermore, capacity utilization is currently at considerably lower overall levels;
hence bottlenecks are not likely to develop at an early stage of the recovery.
As the recovery proceeds, however, particularly as it starts from low primary-stage inventory levels in many countries, pressure 6n some industrial
sectors could become severe well before the upswing becomes broad-based
and before overall capacity utilization reaches more normal levels. For example, in the United States overall capacity utilization in the manufacturing
sector, at its cyclical peak in the third quarter of 1973, was 83.3 percent as
measured by the Federal Reserve index; but at the same time capacity utilization for firms processing raw materials had approached post-Korean war
highs. It may also be that general measures of spare physical capacity do not
serve well in periods following relatively long and deep recessions. During
such recessions effective capacity, rather than being added to, as is generally
assumed in calculations of potential capacity, may grow only slightly or may
136
even be consumed. Actually usable capacity, therefore, tends to be less—and
in some cases considerably less—than calculated.
Furthermore, the current upswing comes at a time when the world economy has begun to adjust to the higher relative price of energy. This adjustment implies an increasing obsolescence of high-energy-using equipment
where alternative production methods are being devised. Thus, although this
structural shift adds to demand for new equipment, it may reduce currently
usable capacity in some sectors. Finally, the large increases in exports to
OPEC, which have given considerable support to activity during the recession, are largely concentrated in goods incorporating precisely those industrial materials that tended to be in short supply early in the 1972-73 upswing.
Although the current outlook carries a number of downside risks, the above
discussion points to the existence of very real upside risks. A significantly
faster recovery than now projected could lead to a repetition of the inflationary pattern of 1972-73. This outcome would not necessarily imply a return
to double-digit inflation. Perhaps only one-half of the acceleration in inflation rates in the industrial countries, from an annual rate of 5^4 percent
in 1970 to over 14 percent by the end of 1974, can be attributed to cyclical
factors. Exogenous shocks, such as the increase in the import price of
oil and shortfalls in grain harvests, may have accounted for the rest. But
significant upward pressure on price levels, even if inflation rates remain
below the two-digit level, may revive inflationary expectations. Such a
development, because of its possible effect on saving rates, could carry the
seeds of renewed curtailment in the growth of private demand.
For the short run, the major policy task in the industrial countries seems to
center on the lessening of uncertainties in the private sector. Some policy
makers have suggested that this can best be achieved by a steady policy stance
supportive of the recovery. Uncertainties about future policy action, both in
demand management and in social policy, should not be added to the uncertainties already created by the oil crisis and by the inflationary experience
of the past several years.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC COOPERATION
The experience of 1972-73 has shown that simultaneous measures to
reflate national economies, without due regard to the amount of spending
power that is being built up collectively, can lead to worldwide inflation.
Similarly, the simultaneous deflationary policies of 1973-74 led to cumulative
recessions. Thus in formulating national demand management policies explicit account needs to be taken of changes in world demand, in order
to avoid the misreading of the changes in demand forces that occurred in
1972-73 and in 1974-75. If domestic policy objectives are to be achieved
efficiently in an interdependent world, economic changes and policy goals
in other countries must be given explicit consideration, precisely because they
affect the path of any national economy, even the largest.
137
Faced with the great economic difficulties of 1974-75 and the threat that
these might be intensified by divisive action, governments have striven to
strengthen the mechanisms of international cooperation and understanding.
These efforts are exemplified by the Economic Summit at Rambouillet in
November 1975, a meeting of heads of government of six major industrial
countries, and by the beginning in December 1975 of the Conference on
International Economic Cooperation (CIEC), which involves a dialogue
between industrial countries, oil producers, and non-oil LDCs. Some progress has also been made in matters involving trade and international monetary arrangements. The commitment to pursue internationally compatible
policies and to avoid beggar-thy-neighbor policies may become increasingly
important in months to come, since unemployment levels are likely to remain
high in the early stages of the recovery and some sectors of the economy will
tend to lag considerably behind a general upturn in activity. The political
pressures on governments to take a narrowly nationalistic view of these problems may therefore intensify.
TRADE POLICIES
Pressures for protectionist actions, which resulted from the worldwide
recession and were latent throughout much of 1975, intensified in a number of
countries toward the end of the year. Recognizing that beggar-thy-neighbor
policies can only serve to make everybody ultimately poorer, the governments of the OECD countries except Portugal renewed in May 1975 the
pledge they had made a year earlier to refrain from taking measures specifically aimed at improving their individual trade positions. As a result,
international trading arrangements were not seriously breached during the
course of 1975, and there have been few significant departures from the
pledge. On the import side a number of smaller OECD countries, Portugal,
Finland, Iceland, New Zealand, and Yugoslavia, have instituted import
deposit or licensing schemes. (An import deposit scheme in effect in Italy
was lifted in March 1975.) Among the larger countries only Australia,
which had earlier cut some tariffs, imposed tariff increases or quotas on
a relatively wide range of goods. Political pressure to institute protectionist
measures was particularly evident in Great Britain, where the government
in December imposed restrictive import measures on a limited number of
products. On the export side, a number of governments, among them the
French, Italian, and British, have instituted or expanded fiscal and monetary measures specifically designed to encourage exports.
Against this background, the heads of government of six major industrial countries at the Economic Summit reaffirmed their commitment to
the principles of the OECD trade pledge and agreed that the time schedule
of the Multilateral Trade Negotiations (MTN) now under way in Geneva
should be accelerated. The MTN aim at achieving substantial tariff cuts
or elimination of tariffs in some areas, a significant expansion in agricultural
trade, and a reduction in nontariff barriers by the end of 1977. This con-
138
stitutes an ambitious program, yet a necessary one in the current economic
and political setting.
Progress in 1975 has mainly been toward laying the basis for actual
negotiations in 1976 and 1977. The preparatory work for the MTN proved
to be more time consuming, compared to that in preceding trade negotiations because of the larger number of participants and because for the first
time a wide range of nontariff barriers are being included. Unlike preceding negotiations, the MTN have been marked by a concentrated effort
within the United States to reach a broad domestic consensus on what they
are to achieve.
Progress in Geneva has been made on a draft code for the regulation of product standards and the treatment of tropical products. It is
expected that broad agreement will be reached in 1976 on the major
elements of a tariff-negotiating plan and on the procedure for achieving
a meaningful liberalization of quantitative restrictions. It is further hoped
that substantial progress can be made this year on procedures for dealing
with questions of subsidies, government procurement, and safeguards
against injurious import penetration so that substantive negotiations can
begin. The United States also continues to work toward developing improved
procedures and agreed principles on assured access to supply.
The admittedly difficult area in which little movement can be discerned
is agriculture. The problems in the agricultural area are well known and of
long standing. First, they concern the great comparative advantage that the
United States and some other primary producers have over producers in
the European Community (EC). Second, there are different approaches
toward maintenance of farm incomes, with the United States moving
away from price stabilization and production controls and the EC firmly
committed to price supports. Because of the deep-seated problems in this
area, it was particularly important that the heads of government at the Economic Summit specifically emphasized their commitment to achieve a
significant expansion of trade also in agriculture.
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
Discussions initiated in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1972
about the structure of a reformed international monetary system were
quickly overtaken by events in early 1973. Growing pressures on price levels
and volatile short-term capital flows led to the adoption of de facto generalized floating in March 1973. Toward the end of 1973 the quadrupling of the
export price of OPEC oil brought about a fundamental change in the international payments structure. Oil-importing countries as a group began to be
faced with large current account deficits vis-a-vis the oil exporters, at least
for a number of years until import demand in oil-exporting countries can rise
to match export revenues and until importing countries develop alternative
sources of energy and succeed in economizing on energy use. Consequently,
financial markets and official international monetary arrangements had to
139
adapt to rapidly changing payment patterns, including an enormous increase
in capital flows connected with the financing of the so-called "oil deficits."
Moreover there were wide disparities in inflation rates among countries. In
these circumstances the flexibility of the exchange rate regime that had
emerged after the breakdown of the parity system became increasingly important in facilitating trade and payment flows in 1974 and 1975. Of course
the monetary, fiscal, and other policies that individual authorities adopt to
stabilize their economies and to adapt to the higher oil import bill—whether
by increasing net exports, borrowing from official or private sources, or drawing on reserve assets—constitutes "managing" their exchange rate in the
wider sense of the term. It is of continuing importance that this "management" of exchange rates not lead to competitive devaluations or other selfdefeating and disruptive policies, but be accomplished in an internationally
cooperative manner.
The financing of the large external deficits of oil importers over the past
2 years has been accomplished considerably more smoothly than had been
anticipated earlier. Financial markets turned out to be very adaptable, and
the more flexible exchange rate system helped to avoid the market disruptions
so often experienced during past periods of strain. Furthermore, deficits were
somewhat smaller than was earlier foreseen because of a faster rise of import
demand in oil-exporting countries and a reduction in the demand for oil
imports resulting from resistance to high oil prices, conservation efforts, and
the recession. Finally, expansion of international liquidity through increased
use of IMF credit, including the creation of the Oil Facility in the IMF and
increases in official lending, helped ease more serious financing strains. Traditional concepts of measurement of total international liquidity, such as those
published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), however, have
dubious applicability in today's international monetary system. Some of
the currency reserve assets—for example^ those accumulated by oil-exporting
countries—tend to be "inactive" assets because they represent the intended
accumulation of foreign investment and differ in important respects from
earlier foreign currency accumulations by monetary authorities. And largescale official borrowing in foreign financial markets has demonstrated the
ability of countries to create liquidity through debt operations. The fact
that not only the Eurocurrency markets but also national money markets,
such as the U.S. market, are open to foreign borrowers and lenders is very
important in this respect and has helped smooth the financing of external
deficits.
The financial surpluses of OPEC in the first instance were largely invested in very short-term assets. But during 1975 considerable diversification of OPEC investments took place. The share of investible funds flowing
into bank deposits and short-term assets was much reduced—from about
one-half to perhaps one-quarter—and purchases of corporate bonds, equities, and long-term government securities rose. For the reasons discussed
above, the total amount of OPEC new investible funds declined sharply
in 1975.
140
The shrinkage in OPEC surpluses in 1975 was reflected in a large reduction in the current account deficits of the industrial countries (Tables 43 and
44). The decreased financing needs of industrial countries in 1975, however,
were partly offset by an increase in import surpluses of LDCs that stemmed
largely from the recession. (The financing problems of LDCs are discussed
below.) Because of the smaller total external financing needs and the realization that the international financial system had been able to intermediate
successfully between the large increases in the supply and demand for loanable funds, developments in international money markets in 1975 more
closely reflected differential economic conditions than they had during the
turbulent year of 1974. Because most other economies have lagged the
United States in the cycle, interest rate relationships have shifted during
the year (Charts 3 and 4). Early in 1975 short-term rates in the United
States declined sharply relative to rates in other money-market centers. But
from mid-June to September, most interest rate differentials swung the other
way. Some of the resulting interest rate incentive was reversed again later in
the year, but by then rate-induced capital flows to the United States were
also being strengthened by the relatively better economic news here than
abroad, and by the continuing high U.S. trade surplus.
TABLE 43.-—Current account balances for OECD, OPEC, and other countries, 1973-76
[Billions of U.S. dollars]
1973
Group of countries
OECD
OPEC
Non-oil developing countries.
Other countries 3
Discrepancy
1974
2^
ji/
, 2 1/
—4 2
....
19762
19751
—36*4
56
—10
2
—6
40
—27
-17J*
43
13i/
9 1X
-j\/
-7M
1 Estimates.
2 Projection.
sSino-Soviet area, South Africa, Israel, Cyprus, Malta, and Yugoslavia.
Sources: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Department of the Treasury and national sources.
TABLE 44.—Current account balances for OECD countries ^ 1974-75
[Billions of U.S. dollars; seasonally adjusted]
First half
OECD 'Total
United States
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
Other OECD
1
19 75
1974
Country
..
...
Second half
—17 0
—0 1
—6
—1 8
— 1
—4 1
—3 7
5 2
—4.5
—4 2
—6 0
—1 6
—1.5
9
—2 3
4.4
—3.3
—4 4
—7 4
5.8
—2.5
9
.7
3.5
.3
—2 0
—6.8
6M
—2^
Estimate.
141
Second halfi
—19 2
Sources: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and national sources.
597-578 O - 76 - 10
First half
— IM
—i
i
0
—2y2
-6
Chart 3
Interest Rates
PERCENT PER ANNUM*
14
UNITED STATES CERTIFICATES
12 - OF DEPOSIT
10
8
6
4
Q >l i i i l I i i i l i I l l l l l I l l I l l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I >
1972
1973
1974
1975
16
GERMAN INTERBANK
14 h RATE
12
10
8
6
4
Q >i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i
1972
1974
1973
1975
18
UNITED KINGDOM INTERBANK
16 - STERLING
14
12
10
8
6
Q >l l l l l I l l I I l I l l I l l I I l I l l I l l l I I I I I I l l I I I I I l I I I I I I >
1972
1974
1973
* 3-MONTH RATES.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
142
1975
Interest Rate Differentials
PERCENTAGE POINT DIFFERENCE *
UNITED STATES CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT
RATE LESS UNITED KINGDOM INTERBANK RATE
-4
1972
1973
1974
1975
PERCENTAGE POINT DIFFERENCE *
4 -
UNITED STATES CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT
RATE LESS GERMAN INTERBANK RATE
-6 1972
1973
1974
* DIFFERENCE IN 3-MONTH RATES.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
143
1975
Private capital transactions in the U.S. balance of payments registered
sizable outflows in the first half of the year. U.S. banks increased their
foreign assets by about $7% billion, reflecting in part relatively low interest rates in the United States, and in part heavy loan demand of some
foreign countries, largely LDCs. The volume of new foreign bonds issued
in the United States reached record rates, reflecting to some extent extraordinary financing requirements of international agencies. But these outflows were partly offset by rising foreign purchases of U.S. corporate stocks,
including sizable purchases by oil-producing countries. In the third quarter,
as U.S. interest rates rose relative to rates abroad, there was some reduction
in banks' acquisition of foreign assets, and the net flow of private capital
was inward. The final quarter brought a resumption of net outflows through
banks, as well as a sizable net outflow through transactions in securities, as
placements of foreign bonds in the U.S. market, including a lars:e issue by
the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) more
than matched a continued high volume of foreign purchases of U.S. corporate stocks. For the year as a whole net private capital outflows were
probably somewhat above the net outflow of over $10 billion reported for
1974.
Reflecting these changes in capital flows and the large surplus on trade
account, noted above, the exchange value of the dollar, in terms of a tradeweighted average of major foreign currencies, first depreciated by about 4yi
percent between the end of December 1974 and the end of February 1975
and then appreciated by about 12 percent from March through September 1975. During the fourth quarter of 1975 the dollar rate changed very
little, drifting down by about one-half of 1 percent.
The swing in the exchange value of some individual currencies against
the dollar was of course greater than is reflected in the weighted average
value. In particular, movements of the European currencies against the dollar were very wide. For example, against the European currencies linked in
the "snake" arrangement, the dollar depreciated by about 6 percent from the
end of December 1974 to its low early in March 1975, rose by 17^2 percent
to its September high, and depreciated again by 2/2 percent to year-end
(ChartS).
Even though governments on the whole allowed market forces to move exchange rates rather ^videly, there appears to have been a considerable
amount of intervention by foreign banks, particularly during the second
half of the year. Gross intervention by the Federal Reserve, however, has
been very limited. In order to avoid disorderly conditions and to lessen the
danger of unwanted and self-defeating actions which might lead to competitive currency depreciations or other international policy conflicts, national governments recognized the need to intensify international consultation
on these matters. As part of the broader international monetary negotiations,
the United States and France reached an understanding at the time of the
Economic Summit regarding a shared position on amendments to the Arti-
144
Chart 5
Foreign Exchange Rates
CENTS PER UNIT OF FOREIGN CURRENCY
45
40
26
35
24
30
22
20
18
1974
1973
1975
260
POUND STERLING
(Left Scale)
.18
240
.17
220
.16
.15
200
A i i i I I I i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i I I i I I I A I .14
1973
1974
1975
105
CANADIAN DOLLAR
(Left Scale)
100
.40
95
.35
I I I
1973
I I I I I
I I I I I
I I I I I
1974
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
145
1975
cles of Agreement of the IMF dealing with the exchange rate regime. This
facilitated agreement by the Interim Committee of the IMF in January 1976
on the entire package of amendments to the IMF's Articles of Agreement
which had been pending since agreement on certain parts was reached at the
time of the Interim Committee meeting in August 1975. The main elements
of this package, in addition to amendment of the Article dealing with exchange rates, are a 33.6 percent increase in the Fund's resources to SDR
39 billion as decided in the Sixth Quota Review; the phasing out of gold
with regard to Fund transactions and other gold arrangements; and the
establishment of a Trust Fund for the benefit of the poorer members of
the IMF.
Agreement on the outstanding IMF issues does much to help assure the
adequacy of international financing arrangements in the face of the continuing large payment surpluses of the oil-exporting countries. As economic recoveries broaden, current account positions of the oil-importing countries
as a group will move into greater deficit. This shift may put financing
strains on some countries and might lead to policies that could arrest the
recoveries or be mutually damaging in other ways. It is therefore important
to ensure that safeguards are in place to prevent unavoidable financial difficulties from being compounded by internationally inappropriate policies.
Therefore the cooperative international spirit underlying the agreements
reached at the meetings in January 1976 is particularly significant.
EXCHANGE RATE ARRANGEMENTS
The agreement on amended exchange rate provisions of the IMF Articles, first worked out between the United States and France and subsequently
accepted by the Interim Committee of the IMF, recognizes that the underlying economic and financial situation determines the degree of exchange
rate stability that is possible. Participating members agree to endeavor to
direct their economic and financial policies toward the achievement of
orderly economic growth with reasonable price stability, to recognize that
orderly underlying economic and financial conditions are prerequisites to
stability, to avoid manipulating exchange rates or the international monetary
system in order to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to
gain an unfair competitive advantage, and to follow exchange policies
compatible with these undertakings.
When formally approved by 60 percent of the member countries representing 80 percent of the votes, these general provisions will be incorporated in
amended Articles of Agreement of the IMF. The agreement allows countries
to choose among exchange arrangements, including: (1) The maintenance
by a member of a value for its currency in terms of the Special Drawing
Right or another denominator other than gold; or (2) cooperative arrangements by which members maintain the value of their currencies in relation
to the value of the currency or currencies of other members; or (3) other
exchange arrangements of a member's choice.
146
The revised Articles would authorize the Fund, upon approval by an 85
percent majority vote, to establish a system of exchange arrangements based
on stable but adjustable par values when international economic conditions
are appropriate. In effect such a system could not be established without the
approval of the United States, which under the proposed new quotas will
have approximately 20 percent of the voting strength. As far as the United
States is concerned, for the foreseeable future it is thought unlikely that conditions will be appropriate for the establishment of a par value system or
the setting of target rates and zones or bands within which movements in
the rate of the dollar would be contained. Policies aim at achieving
stable economic conditions. However, progress toward narrowing disparities
among inflation rates in different countries is slow, nor can one be sure that
progress once made will be lasting. Exogenous shocks to which the various
economies continue to be subject also argue for a considerable degree of
flexibility in the monetary system. Central bank intervention will be limited
to that necessary to counter disorderly conditions or erratic fluctuations.
Each country will be the judge of what constitutes an erratic fluctuation in
its exchange rate.
To facilitate the achievement of internationally cooperative behavior in
exchange markets, the French and the U.S. authorities have suggested an
intensification of the consultative arrangements among governments and
central banks of major countries. Central bank officials will exchange daily
information on the foreign exchange market and their intervention activities.
Finance ministry and central bank officials will at frequent intervals review
exchange rate movements and intervention activities, and discuss both the
underlying economic and financial conditions and the impact of policies on
these conditions. Under these arrangements there may be somewhat more
frequent intervention than in the past. But the main point is that decisions
on intervention in exchange markets will be based on better information,
and that a growing understanding may also develop which recognizes that
managing the exchange rate rather than the economy may only serve to
introduce disequilibria and lead to misallocation of resources.
GOLD ARRANGEMENTS
The agreement reached on gold consists of four major elements:
1. Gold no longer will be a medium of settlement in IMF transactions.
2. One-sixth of the gold holdings of the IMF will be restituted to
members, that is distributed to members in proportion to their quotas.
3. One-sixth of the gold holdings of the IMF will be sold at auction over
a period of 4 years to finance a Trust Fund for the benefit of the
poorer members of the IMF.
4. An agreement that will be reviewed after a 2-year period has been
concluded by the 10 largest industrial countries. It bars any action to
peg the price of gold and provides that the total stock of gold held by
147
the Fund and the monetary authorities of the participating countries
will not be increased. Other countries may also adhere to this
agreement.
The agreements on gold reflect general acceptance of the agreed upon
objective to reduce the role of gold in the international monetary system.
In addition, with the scheduled sale of some of the IMF's gold holdings for
the purpose of financing the Trust Fund, gold may be expected to begin—
gradually—to move out of the monetary system into private hands.
Some observers have argued that these new agreements may lead to a
revaluation of official gold holdings at market-related prices or encourage
more frequent use of gold as a medium for settlement among central banks.
It is further argued that this, combined with the distribution of IMF gold
to members, will have the effect of making more gold available to major
countries, thus giving them greater liquidity, and perhaps adding to world
inflationary pressures and reducing the likelihood that additional allocations of SDKs would be approved.
However, central banks have had the ability for some time to sell their
gold holdings in the market as well as to value such holdings at marketrelated prices. Only one foreign central bank has actually written up its
gold reserves, and there is no indication that others intend to do so. Moreover there also is no reason to expect the agreements to result in significant
transactions in gold among monetary authorities. Indeed, by abolishing the
official price for gold in the IMF, by strengthening the prospect of future
sales of officially held gold into the market, and by establishing transitional
provisions against pegging of the price, these agreements should in fact
discourage widespread revaluations of official gold holdings and increase
the risks associated with transactions among monetary authorities.
With the phasing of gold out of international official transactions, the
danger that some authorities might seek to stabilize the price of gold is
much diminished. In addition, authorities attempting to peg the price
of gold, despite agreement among major countries not to do so, would find
that such an effort could be exorbitantly expensive in terms of foreign currency assets needed for such operations. The cost would be higher, the
smaller the number of participants.
Finally, the increases in world credit during the past several years have
made it unlikely that new SDKs will be issued in the near future. Therefore, the restitution provision has been welcomed by some of the lesser
developed countries which will receive 28 percent (their quota share) of the
amounts to be distributed. In addition, the gold arrangements make possible the establishment of the Trust Fund, which is of crucial importance
to the poorest developing countries, particularly now that the Oil Facility
in the IMF is being terminated. Moreover a large number of LDCs will
not make any nominal contribution to the Trust Fund, but will have that
part of the profits on the gold sales by the IMF that represents their quota
share in the Trust Fund distributed to them directly. Thus of the 25 million
148
ounces of gold to be sold by the IMF, the profits on perhaps 6-7 million
will go directly to LDCs, and those on 18-19 million will be used for the
Trust Fund.
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL RESOURCES
In some sense a very important aspect of the completion of the arduous
negotiations on exchange rate and gold arrangements is that the agreement
on quota increases can now go forward. Such an increase in the general
resources of the IMF is particularly important at this time because of the
possible increase in external financing strains which some countries may face
in the years ahead.
For the period necessary to ratify the scheduled quota increases, it was
agreed that general access to the IMF's resources be temporarily liberalized by permitting a 45 percent increase in drawings in all credit tranches.
This decision increases the general availability of IMF credit, but to the
extent that it applies to the first credit tranches, it makes available a larger
amount of resources that can be drawn upon freely without any, or at
any rate with only a few, conditions attached. To that extent it will be
necessary to guard against a possible inflationay impact. The temporary liberalization of access to IMF credit exceeds the scheduled
quota increase and, thereby, should help smooth the continuing financial
repercussions of the recession in the immediate future. By the time the
permanent increase in IMF resources is in place, this exceptional bridging
support should no longer be necessary.
For the industrial countries the IMF resources will be supplemented
by the agreement reached last spring to establish a mutual Financial Support Fund among members of the OECD. This fund is designed to backstop
traditional sources of financing and is to come into use only when financing
is not available at reasonable rates through other channels. Drawings upon
the Support Fund will be conditional upon the pursuit of appropriate
domestic and international economic policies and upon progress toward
increased conservation and production of energy. Thus, the Fund effectively
constitutes an effort by industrialized oil consumers to insure against too
great a bilateral financial dependence upon oil producers and to guard
against protectionist or divisive measures designed to improve external
payments positions at the expense of others. To the extent that it prevents
member countries from taking restrictive payments measures, and more
generally by contributing to an improved world economic outlook, the Fund
would also be of help to nonmember countries.
For the poorer among the LDCs, the establishment of the Trust Fund in
the IMF is of great importance, as noted above. Of potential help to a
broader spectrum of LDCs is the decision to liberalize significantly the IMF's
compensatory financing facility. Under this facility the IMF provides balance of payments support in amounts additional to normal IMF credit
available to member countries who are experiencing a shortfall in export
149
earnings for reasons beyond their control. The IMF's buffer stock facility,
which assists countries in balance of payments need that have made contributions to international buffer stocks, is also being modestly liberalized.
THE CURRENT FINANCIAL POSITION OF THE NON-OIL LDCs
The difficulties experienced by LDCs in adjusting to the higher price of oil
have been compounded by the depth of the recession that the oil price increases themselves helped to produce. So far, the financing of the large payments deficits which the non-oil LDCs have been incurring since 1973 has
been managed with considerably less strain than was feared. Consequently
actual expenditures requiring foreign currencies have been curtailed considerably less than was expected. The combined deficit on goods and
services of the non-oil LDCs in 1975 is estimated at approximately $35
billion. Total financing requirements, however, would be in the $40to $45-billion range, since scheduled debt amortization must be added.
These requirements were partly met by official aid flows and financing
available through the IMF's Oil Facility. Through mid-1975 most LDCs
were able to finance the remainder with little recourse to their first-line
resources. Reserves, which had grown by very large amounts during the
1972-73 commodity inflation, and conditional IMF resources were not
drawn on to any considerable extent. In addition to official aid flows, the
main financing came from bank lending and trade credits, an indication
that a large number of these countries have maintained their credit worthiness in the view of private lenders. Many LDCs seem to have preferred bank
borrowing because a rundown of their reserves or IMF resources might have
eroded their credit standing.
In 1976 the overall position of the non-oil LDCs could improve somewhat (Table 43). The recession caused the external balances of the industrial countries to move from large deficits toward surplus in 1975, and the
counterpart of these changes was to be found in deteriorating payments
positions of the developing countries. In 1976 this pattern should be partially
reversed as the recovery proceeds. The earnings of non-oil LDCs may therefore begin to rise once more and could well rise faster than imports. The
non-oil LDCs as a group have lagged behind the industrial countries in the
cycle; and many began to take deflationary, or import-reducing, measures
only sometime during 1975. Thus imports in 1976 may show little, if any,
growth. Accordingly, financing requirements for the year may be in the
$30- to $33-billion range on a goods and services basis, and in the $35- to
$40-billion range when debt amortization is taken into account.
Private market sources still appear to be willing to increase their lending
to a number of these countries. Although their debt burden has grown
considerably in nominal terms since 1973, inflation has reduced their real
debt position. Consequently debt burdens, in real terms, may not be too
far from their level of 1972 or thereabouts.
150
The fact that financial disaster or drastic cutbacks in development
plans and economic growth have so far been avoided in the larger number
of non-oil LDCs does not mean that their situation can be viewed with
equanimity. Some countries' financial positions are indeed precarious.
Considerable amounts of official aid will be necessary, particularly since
their problems are likely to be compounded over time. But such aid should
be conditional upon the adoption of appropriate policies that will allow
existing growth potential to come fully into play. For the remaining countries the outlook is more encouraging, partly because of their natural endowment, partly because of efficient domestic management, and other reasons. For these countries, the increase in official financial resources currently being put in place, in addition to their access to private financing,
may well suffice. The need is clear, however, to assure that these financing
facilities are promptly accessible.
The Extended Fund Facility of the IMF is already in place. This facility
provides considerably more liberal financing possibilities in connection with
programs aiming at major structural changes than the regular IMF
resources do, both in terms of amounts and in terms of maturities of
loans available. In addition, the Trust Fund will become operational early
this year, as will the liberalization of the IMF's compensatory financing
and buffer stock facilities discussed above. These facilities and the enlarged
access to regular resources of the IMF represent important safeguards
against financing problems that may arise in 1976.
EARNINGS STABILIZATION AND COMMODITY
ARRANGEMENTS
In part because of the financial problems created by the higher oil prices
and the waning of the commodity boom of 1972-73, developing countries
have forcefully attempted to focus the world's attention on their longer-run
problems. LDC demands stem mainly from a desire to maintain or increase
the purchasing power of their export earnings and to receive increased aid
flows from richer countries. In certain matters, the interests of LDCs and industrial countries clearly coincide. The large fluctuations in prices for primary
products disrupt LDCs' development plans and compound inflationary problems in the industrial countries. In addition, greater earnings stability in the
commodity area would help the investment climate and thereby contribute
to adequacy of supply. In recognition of these facts the liberalization of the
compensatory financing and the buffer stock facilities in the IMF, noted
above, have been agreed upon.
As part of its approach to commodity problems, the United States has
expressed willingness to discuss commodity agreements case by case. U.S.
objectives are to arrive at agreements which reduce excessive price swings
without raising commodity prices above their long-term m'arket trends and
without significantly weakening the functioning of market forces. In line with
151
these dbjectives, the U.S. view is that production controls and export restrictions should be avoided, because they create supply rigidities and longer-run
market distortions and because they result in misallocation of resources and
excessive costs to consumers.
The current approach to earnings stabilization problems relies on financing arrangements through the IMF which help smooth shortfalls in export
earnings and on joint producer-consumer efforts to contain cyclical price
fluctuations through buffer stock arrangements. Past attempts at using buffer
stocks generally have foundered upon the inadequate size of such stocks, the
high costs of holding inventory, and breakdowns in agreements among members on operating the stocks. Some of these drawbacks were due in part to
the fact that the direct cost was carried by producers. The current approach,
which brings producers and consumers together, perhaps carries a better
promise for success than past buffer stock programs, in terms of both setting
more realistic stock disposal rules and attempting to provide sufficient safeguards to protect consumers from a situation where average prices over the
cycle are significantly higher than competitive market prices would have
been.
The general and specific problems relating to commodity issues are being
discussed in various international forums. One of the major issues that continues to be pressed by the LDCs is some provision to link their export prices
to changes in prices for manufactured goods. These "indexation" proposals
need to be opposed on various grounds. First, efficient use of economic resources depends upon the smooth functioning of the price mechanism. If
relative prices were frozen, misallocation of resources would inevitably result.
Second, because such arrangements tend to result in selling prices that are
higher than market forces would bring about, they impart an inflationary
bias to the international economic system. Therefore, earnings stabilization
schemes can better be implemented through the more market-oriented ways
discussed above, and any transfer of resources to the poorer countries can
better be accomplished through official aid channels.
152
Appendix A
REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1975
153
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,
Washington, D.C., December 31,1975.
THE PRESIDENT:
Sir: The Council of Economic Advisers submits this report on its activities
'during the calendar year 1975 in accordance with the requirements of the
Congress, as set forth in Section 4(d) of the Employment Act of 1946.
Respectfully,
ALAN GREENSPAN,, Chairman.
PAUL W. MAcAvov.
BURTON G. MALKIEL.
155
Report to the President on the Activities of the
Council of Economic Advisers During1975
The Council of Economic Advisers was established by the Employment
Act of 1946 to provide economic analysis and advice to the President and
thus to assist him in the development and evaluation of economic policies.
Alan Greenspan served as Chairman of the Council during 1975. On
June 13, 1975, Paul W. MacAvoy became a Member of the Council, succeeding Gary L. Seevers, who left the Council on April 15, 1975. Mr.
Seevers, who became a Member in July 1973, is at present a Commissioner
of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Mr. MacAvoy is on leave
of absence from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he is
Henry R. Luce Professor of Public Policy.
On July 22, 1975, Burton G. Malkiel became a Member of the Council,
filling a vacancy created by the departure of William J. Fellner, who left
Past Council Members and their dates of service are listed below
Name
Position
Edwin G. Nourse
Leon H. Keyserl ing
John D.Clark
Roy Blough
Robert C. Turner
Arthur F. Burns...
Neil H.Jacoby
Walter W.Stewart.. .
Raymond J.Saulnier..
Joseph S. Davis.
Paul W. McCracken
Karl Brandt
Henry C. Wallich
Walter W. Heller..
James Tobin
Kermit Gordon
Gardner Ackley
.
John P. Lewis
Otto Eckstein
Arthur M. Okun_.
James S. Duesenberry
Merton J.Peck..
Warren L. Smith...
Paul W. McCracken
Hendrik S. Houthakker
Herbert Stein...
Ezra Solomon
Marina v.N. Whitman
Gary L. Seevers.
William J. Fellner
Oath of office date
Chairman
Vice Chairman .
Acting Chairman
Chairman
Member
Vice Chairman
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Chairman.
Member..
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Chairman..
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Member
Augusts 1946
August 9, 1946
November 2, 1949
May 10, 1950
August 9. 1946
May 10, 1950
June 29 1950
September 8 1952
March 19, 1953
September 15 1953
December 2 1953
April 4, 1955
December 3, 195~6~
May 2 1955
December 3, 195~6~
November 1 1958
May 7, 1959
January 29 1961
January 29, 1961
January 29 1961
Augusts, 1962
November 16, 1964
May 17, 1963
September 2 1964
November 16, 1964
February 15, 1968
February 2, 1966..
February 15, 1968
July 1, 1968 .
February 4, 1969. ..
February 4. 1969
February 4, 1969
January 1, 1972
September 9. 1971
March 13, 1972
July 23, 1973 . .
October 31 1973
157
597-578 O - 76 - 11
Separation date
November 1 1949.
January 20, 1953.
February 11, 1953.
August 20 1952.
January 26 1953
December 1, 1956.
February 9 1955
April 29, 1955.
January 20, 1961.
October 31 1958.
January 31, 1959.
January 20, 1961.
January 20, 1961.
November 15, 1964.
July 31, 1962.
December 27, 1962.
February 15, 1968.
August 31, 1964.
February 1, 1966.
January 20, 1969.
June 30, 1968.
January 20. 1969.
January 20, 1969.
December 31, 1971.
July 15, 1971.
August 31, 1974.
March 26. 1973.
August 15, 1973.
April 15, 1975.
February 25, 1975.
the Council on February 25 to return to the American Enterprise Institute,
where he is Resident Scholar. Mr. Malkiel is on leave of absence from
Princeton University, where he is Gordon S. Rentschler Memorial Professor
of Economics.
RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE COUNCIL
The principal directive of the Employment Act is that the Federal Government "use all practicable means consistent with its needs and obligations . . . for the purpose of creating and maintaining . . . conditions
. . . to promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing
power."
The basic responsibility of the Council of Economic Advisers is the analysis of economic problems and the interpretation of trends and changes in
the economy to assist the President in the development and evaluation of
national economic policies. The Council prepares regular reports on current
economic conditions and forecasts of future economic developments, and
its recommendations are considered in the formulation of economic policy.
The Council also performs a direct advisory role both within the Executive
Office of the President and through participation in interagency groups in
which representatives of various departments, agencies, and offices in the
executive branch evaluate current programs and consider and develop new
ones. The scope of its efforts covers a wide range of economic problems which
come before the Office of the President.
During 1975 the Council and its staff contributed to the study of many
different economic issues. The analysis of current developments in business
activity and the evaluation of alternative macroeconomic and energy policies
were an important part of the Council's work last year. The Council also
participated in the analysis of future capital requirements; foreign economic
conditions, and international financial developments; issues and proposals regarding agriculture and food policy, agricultural exports, and commodity trade policies; measures to improve the functioning of the labor
markets and to alleviate the impact of the recession; measures and programs
to support housing construction and to stimulate investment in the public
utility industry; alternative proposals to deal with a wide range of energy
issues and problems; transportation problems and policies; policy proposals
in regulatory reform; proposals for more effective health insurance, income
maintenance, and social insurance systems; and measures to improve the
Government's economic statistics.
Early each year the President submits the Economic Report of the President to the Congress as required by the Employment Act. The Council
assumes major responsibility for the preparation of this Report, which together with the Annual Report of thu Council of Economic Advisers reviews
the progress of the economy over the past year and outlines the Administration's policies and programs.
158
The Chairman is a member of the Economic Policy Board and of its Executive Committee. This Board was formed in October 1974 to direct the
formulation, coordination, and implementation of economic policy. The
Executive Committee, which serves as the focal point for economic policy
making, meets daily to address current issues of economic policy. It is chaired
by the Secretary of the Treasury and consists of the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, the Director of the Office of Management and
Budget, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Commerce, "the Secretary
of Labor, the Executive Director of the Council on International Economic
Policy, and the Assistant to the President for Economic Affairs, who is the
Executive Director of both the Economic Policy Board and its Executive
Committee. The Executive Committee, often augmented by the Chairman
of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, meets regularly
with the President to review economic conditions, makes recommendations,
and discusses possible changes in economic policy.
The Chairman of the Council is a member of the Executive Committee of
the President's Energy Resources Council, which was instituted in October
1974 to formulate and coordinate energy policy. The Chairman also heads
the U.S. delegation to the Economic Policy Committee of the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development and serves as vice chairman
of the Committee. Council Members and staff economists attend meetings
of various working parties of the Committee during the year.
The review and analysis of the overall performance of the economy is
conducted and coordinated through a series of "Troika" working groups,
comprising representatives of the Council, the Treasury, and the Office of
Management and Budget. At regular intervals economists from these
agencies evaluate recent economic performance and formulate economic
forecasts which are then reviewed by a second group, chaired by a
Council Member and including a representative of the Treasury and the
Office of Management and Budget. The analysis and projections are finally
reviewed and cleared through the Chairman of the Council for presentation
and consideration by the Executive Committee of the Economic Policy
Board.
The Council has initiated a series of quarterly meetings at which leading
economists are invited to present their views on the economy and economic
policy to the Executive Committee of the Economic Policy Board. Three of
these meetings were held in 1975. The economists who attended included
Gardner Ackley (University of Michigan), Henry L. Duncombe (General
Motors), Otto Eckstein (Harvard University), Robert E. Hall (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Walter W. Heller (University of Minnesota),
Hendrik S. Houthakker (Harvard University), Albert G. Matamoros (Armstrong Cork Company), Paul W. McCracken (University of Michigan),
James Meigs (Claremont College), Allan H. Meltzer (Carnegie-Mellon
University), William D. Nordhaus (Yale University), Arthur M. Okun
159
(The Brookings Institution), Leif Olsen (First National City Bank, New
York), William Poole (Brown University), Albert E. Rees (Princeton University), Paul Samuelson (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Herbert
Stein (University of Virginia), James Tobin (Yale University), and
Marina v.N. Whitman (University of Pittsburgh).
"A Study of Fixed Capital Requirements of the U.S. Business Economy,
1971-1980" was prepared for the Council of Economic Advisers under the
direction of Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National Analysis
and Projections of the Department of Commerce. The results of this study
are used in this Report, and the entire study is available from the Bureau
of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.
The Joint Economic Committee (JEC), like the Council, was created
by the Employment Act of 1946 to make a continuing study of matters
relating to the economy and to submit its own report and recommendations
to the Congress. During 1975 the Chairman and Council Members appeared
before the JEC five times. The Chairman and the Council also presented
testimony before the Budget Committees of the House and Senate on a
number of occasions during the year -and appeared before a number of
other committees of the Congress to discuss budgetary, energy, and other
related issues.
The Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers, contained in
the Economic Report of the President, is the main vehicle through which
the Council informs the public of its work and its views. It presents a comprehensive review and analysis of economic conditions, forecasts, and projections for the coming year, as well as an explanation of the Administration's economic policy. In recent years about 50,000 copies of the Economic
Report have been distributed. The Council also presents its views on current
economic problems and developments through occasional press briefings,
testimony before various congressional committees, and speeches and papers
presented by the Chairman and the Members of the Council. The Council
also assumes primary responsibility for the monthly publication Economic
Indicators. It is prepared by the Council's Statistical Office under the direction of Frances M. James and issued by the Joint Economic Committee with
a distribution of about 10,000 copies.
ORGANIZATION AND STAFF OF THE COUNCIL
OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN
The Chairman is responsible for communicating the Council's views to
the President. This duty is performed both through discussions with the
President and through regular reports on economic developments. The
Chairman also represents the Council at Cabinet meetings and at many
other formal and informal meetings of Government officials. He exercises
ultimate responsibility for directing the work of the professional staff.
160
COUNCIL MEMBERS
The Council Members directly supervise the work of the staff, are responsible for all subject matter covered by the Council, and represent the Council
at numerous meetings, where they assume major responsibility for the Council's involvement. Whenever the Chairman is absent from Washington, one
of the Council Members becomes Acting Chairman.
In practice the Chairman and the Council Members work as a team. For
operational reasons, however, subject matter is divided informally between
the Council Members. Mr. Malkiel is responsible for analysis of business
conditions, short-term forecasting, and matters related to monetary and fiscal policy; international trade and finance; manpower employment and
developments in the labor market; financial markets; housing; taxation;
and social security. Mr. Malkiel is the Chairman of the second-level Troika
group and also of the Economic Policy Board's subcommittee on improving
economic statistics. Mr. MacAvoy's responsibility encompasses energy; natural resources and commodity trade issues; food and agriculture; health,
education, and welfare; environmental problems; transportation; regulated
industries; and antitrust questions. He is Chairman of the Economic Policy
Board's Food Deputies Group and co-Chairman of the Domestic Council
Group on Regulatory Reform.
PROFESSIONAL STAFF
At the end of 1975 the professional staff and their special fields of economic analysis were:
Senior Staff
Barry R. Chiswick
John D. Darroch
John M. Davis, Jr.
George M. von Furstenberg
Bruce L. Gardner
R. Jeffery Green
Helen B. Junz
June A. O'Neill
Frederick M. Peterson
Milton Russell
John L. Scadding
Economists
Labor and Human Resources
Prices and Industry Studies
Special Assistant to the Chairman
Fiscal Policy, Public Finance, Housing, and Capital
Formation
Agriculture and Food
Econometrics and Forecasting
International Finance and Trade
Labor and Human Resources
Economic Analysis, Environment, and Technology
Energy Analysis and Policy
Monetary Policy, Financial Institutions, Capital
Markets, and Interest Rates
Statisticians
Frances M. James
Catherine H. Furlong
Senior Staff Statistician
Statistician
Staff
Doral S. Cooper
David C. Munro
Rosemary Quintano
Economists
International Trade and Finance
Business Conditions, Analysis, and Forecasting
Economic Analysis, Prices, and Forecasting
161
Junior Staff Economists
David W. Brazell
David B. Crary
James W. Moser
Joan M. Porter
Valerie Sarris
J. W. Henry Watson
Paul G. Westcott
Monetary Policy and Environment
Monetary Policy and Financial Markets
Labor and Human Resources
Econometrics and Forecasting
Public Finance and Energy
Regulated Industries and Transportation
Economic Analysis, Agriculture, and Transportation
Frances M. James, Senior Staff Statistician, is in charge of the Statistical
Office and manages the Council's economic and statistical information
system. She supervises the publication of Economic Indicators and the
preparation of tables and charts for the Economic Report and for the
Council's work. She also directs the fact checking of memoranda, testimony,
and speeches. Catherine H. Furlong, Dorothy Bagovich, and Natalie Rentfro
assist Miss James.
During the summer James R. Golden (U.S. Military Academy) was a
member of the professional staff. Robert S. Dohner (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) assisted the Council in the preparation of the Report.
The Council conducts a program under which student interns are appointed
for temporary periods. The summer intern for 1975 was Robert E. Berry
(University of Virginia).
A large number of economists provided professional assistance or served
as consultants to the Council. These included Alan S. Blinder (Princeton
University), William H. Branson (Princeton University), Murray F. Foss
(National Bureau of Economic Research), Roger W. Gray (Stanford University), Hendrik S. Houthakker (Harvard University), Lawrence R. Klein
(University of Pennsylvania), Myron S. Scholes (University of Chicago),
Herbert Stein (University of Virginia), Susan M. Wachter (University of
Pennsylvania), and Marina v.N. Whitman (University of Pittsburgh).
In preparing the Economic Report the Council relied upon the editorial
assistance of Rosannah C. Steinhoff. Special assistance in connection with
the Report was also furnished by Dorothy L. Reid, a former member of the
Council staff.
SUPPORTING STAFF
The Administrative Office provides administrative support for the entire
Council staff which includes preparation and analysis of the Council's
budget; procurement of equipment and supplies; responding to letters
and inquiries from the general public; and distribution of Council speeches,
reports, and congressional testimony. The Administrative Office consisted
of Nancy F. Skidmore, Elizabeth A. Kaminski, and Bettye T. Siegel. The
duplicating, mail, and messenger department was operated by James W.
Gatling, Frank C. Norman, and Jerry W. Catling.
Serving on the secretarial staff for the Chairman and Council Members
during 1975 were Anne V. Jackson, Joyce A. Pilkerton, Patricia A. Lee,
162
Alice H. Williams, and Man^aret A. Bocek. Secretaries for the professional
staff included Mary C. Fibich, Dorothy L. Green, Bessie M. Lafakis,
Earnestine Reid, Linda A. Reilly, Margaret L. Snyder, and Lillie M.
Sturniolo.
DEPARTURES
The Council's professional staff members are drawn primarily from universities and research institutions. Murray F. Foss, who served with the
Council for 6 years, retired from Government service in 1975 to take up
new duties as a Senior Research Associate with the National Bureau of
Economic Research, Washington. Other senior staff economists who resigned during the year were Joseph G. Kvasnicka (Federal Reserve Bank,
Chicago), James C. Miller III (Council on Wage and Price Stability),
Allan G. Pulsipher (Southern Illinois University), G. Edward Schuh (Purdue University), and J. Richard Zecher (Tulane University).
Junior economists who resigned in 1975 were Joseph P. Kalt (University
of California, Los Angeles), Leroy O. Laney (Department of the Treasury),
Robert J. Schanzmeyer (Rice University), and Robert S. Stillman (University of California, Los Angeles). Other resignations included James H. Ayres,
Administrative Officer, Ruth Ann Butler, secretary, and Mary P. Kane,
research assistant.
163
Appendix B
STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME,
EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION
165
CONTENTS
NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE:
B-l.
B-2.
B-3.
B-4.
B-5.
B-6.
B-7.
B-8.
B-9.
B-10.
B-l 1.
B-l 2.
B-l 3.
B-14.
B-15.
B-l6.
B-l 7.
B-18.
B-19.
B-20.
Gross national product or expenditure, 1946-75
Gross national product or expenditure in 1972 dollars, 1946-75
Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1946-75
Gross national product by major type of product, 1946-75
Gross national product by major type of product in 1972 dollars,
1946-75
Gross national product by sector, 1946-75
Gross national product by sector in 1972 dollars, 1946-75
Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business, 1946-75.
Gross private domestic investment, 1946-75
Inventories and final sales of business in current and 1972 dollars,
1957-75
Relation of gross national product and national income, 1946-75
National income by type of income, 1946-75
Relation of national income and personal income, 1946-75
Disposition of personal income, 1946-75
Sources of personal income, 1946-75
Personal consumption expenditures, 1946-75
Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures in current and 1972 dollars, 1946-75. . . . .
Gross saving and investment 1946-75
Saving by individuals, 1946-75
Number and money income (in 1974 dollars) of families and unrelated
individuals, by race of head, 1947-74
Page
171
172
174
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
186
187
188
190
191
192
193
194
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY:
B-21.
B-22.
B-23.
B-24.
B-25.
B-26.
B-27.
B—28.
Population by age groups, 1929-75
Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-75
Civilian employment and unemployment by sex and age, 1947-75..
Selected unemployment rates, 1948-75
Unemployment by duration, 1947-75
Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1946-75
Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1929-75.
Average weekly hours and hourly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries, 1947-75
B-29. Average weekly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries, 1947-75
B-30. Productivity and related data, private economy, 1947-75
B-31. Changes in productivity and related data, private economy, 1948-75..
167
195
196
198
199
200
201
202
204
205
206
207
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
Page
B-32. Industrial production indexes, major industry divisions, 1929-75... . 208
B-33. Industrial production indexes, market groupings, 1947-75
209
B-34. Industrial production indexes, selected manufactures, 1947-75
210
B-35. Capacity utilization rate in manufacturing, 1947-75
211
B-36. New construction activity, 1929-75
212
B-37. New housing starts and applications for financing, 1929-75
214
B-38. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1947-76
216
B-39. Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1947-75
217
B-40. Manufacturers' shipments and inventories, 1947-75
218
B-41. Manufacturers' new and unfilled orders, 1947-75
219
PRICES:
B-42. Consumer price indexes by expenditure classes, 1929-75
220
B-43. Consumer price indexes by commodity and service groups, 1939-75.
221
B-44. Consumer price indexes, selected commodities and services, 1939-75.
222
B-45. Consumer price indexes, seasonally adjusted, 1972-75
223
B-46. Percent changes in consumer price indexes, major groups, 1948-75..
224
B-47. Wholesale price indexes by major commodity groups, 1929-75
225
B-48. Wholesale price indexes by stage of processing and by special groupings, 1947-75
227
B-49. Wholesale price indexes for selected groupings, seasonally adjusted,
1972-75
229
B-50. Percent changes in wholesale price indexes, major groups, 1948-75..
230
MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCE:
B-51. Money stock measures, 1947-75
231
B-52. Commercial bank loans and investments, 1930-75
232
B-53. Total funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors, 1967-75.
233
B-54. Private liquid asset holdings, nonfinancial investors, 1959-75
235
B-55. Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 1929-75. . 236
B-56. Aggregate reserves and member bank deposits, 1959-75
237
B-57. Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-75
238
B-58. Short-and intermediate-term consumer credit outstanding, 1929—75.
240
B-59. Instalment credit extended and repaid, 1946-75
241
Er-60. Mortgage debt outstanding by type of property and of financing,
1939-75
242
B-61. Mortgage debt outstanding by lender, 1939-75
243
B-62. Net public and private debt, 1929-74
244
GOVERNMENT FINANCE:
B-63. Federal budget receipts and outlays, fiscal years 1929-77
245
B-64. Federal budget receipts, outlays, and debt, fiscal years 1967-77..
246
B-65. Relation of the Federal budget to the Federal sector of the national
income and product accounts, fiscal years 1975-77
248
B-66. Receipts and expenditures of the government sector of the national
income and product accounts, 1946-75
249
B-67. Receipts and expenditures of the Federal Government sector of the
national income and product accounts, 1949-77
250
B-68. Receipts and expenditures of the State and local government sector of
the national income and product accounts, 1946-75
251
B—69. State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected fiscal
years, 1927-74
252
B-70. Public debt securities by kind of obligation, 1946-75
253
B-71. Estimated ownership of public debt securities, 1946-75
254
B-72. Average length and maturity distribution of marketable interestbearing public debt, 1946-75
255
168
CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE:
Page
B-73. Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without
capital consumption adjustment, by industry, 1946-75
256
B-74. Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without
capital consumption adjustment, manufacturing industries, 194675
258
R-75. Sales, profits, and stockholders' equity, all manufacturing corporations, 1947-75
B-76. Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, all
manufacturing corporations, 1947-75
B-77. Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, all
manufacturing corporations, by industry group, 1974-75
B-78. Sources and uses of funds, nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business,
1946-75
B-79. Current assets and liabilities of U.S. corporations, 1939-75
B-80. State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-75
B-81. Common stock prices, earnings, and yields, and stock market credit,
1949-75
B-82. Business formation and business failures, 1929-75
AGRICULTURE:
B-83. Income of farm people and farmers, 1929-75
B-84. Farm production indexes, 1929-75
B-85. Farm population, employment, and productivity, 1929-75
B-86. Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, and parity ratio,
1929-75
B-87. Selected measures of farm resources and inputs, 1929-75
B-88. Comparative balance sheet of the farming sector, 1929-76
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS:
B-89. U.S. balance of payments, 1946-75
B-90. U.S. merchandise exports and imports by commodity groups,
1958-75
B-91. U.S. merchandise exports and imports by area, 1969-75
B-92. International reserves, 1969-75
B-93. U.S. reserve assets, 1946-75
B-94. International investment position of the United States at year-end,
1960 and 1970-74
.
B-95. Price changes in international trade, 1967-75
.
B-96. Consumer price indexes in the United States and other major industrial countries, 1955-75
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
See Economic Report 1972 for data for intervening years not shown here,
except as noted below.
The national income and product accounts data shown in these tables
are the revised series to be published in the "Survey of Current Business,"
January 1976. Data for 1929-45 usually shown in these tables are not yet
available for the revised series.
Symbols used:
* Preliminary.
. . Not available (also, not applicable).
169
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE
TABLE B—1.—Gross national product or expenditure, 1946-75
{Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Net exports of goods
and services
Personal
consumption
expenditures i
Gross
private
domestic
investment*
209.6
232.8
259.1
258.0
143.8
161.7
174.7
178.1
30.7
34.0
45.9
35.3
11.6
6.5
6.2
14.8
19.8
16.9
15.9
1950
1951..
1952
1953..
1954
286.2
330.2
347.2
366.1
366.3
192.0
207.1
217.1
229.7
235.8
53.8
59.2
52.1
53.3
52.7
1.9
3.8
2.4
.6
2.0
1955
1956 .
1957
1958
1959.. .
399.3
420.7
442.8
448.9
486.5
253.7
266.0
280.4
289.5
310.8
68.4
71.0
69.2
61.9
77.6
I960
1961
1962.
1963
1964
506.0
523.3
563.8
594.7
635.7
324.9
335.0
355.2
374.6
400.4
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
688.1
753.0
796.3
868.5
935.5
Gross
national
product
Year or quarter
1946..
1947
1948..
1949
.
.
1970
1971
1972
1973.
1974
Government purchases of goods and
services 3
Federal
State
and
local
Percent
change
from
preceding
period,
gross
national
product^
Imports
Total
8.2
10.4
9.6
7.2
27.5
25.5
32.0
38.4
17.6
12.7
16.7
20.4
14.8
9.0
10.7
13.2
3.7
6.0
7.2
12.8
15.3
18.0
11.1
11.3
-.4
13.9
18.9
18.2
17.1
18.0
12.0
15.1
15.8
16.6
16.0
38.5
60.1
75.6
82.5
75.8
18.7
38.3
52.4
57.5
47.9
14.0
33.5
45.8
48.6
41.1
4.7
4.8
6.5
8.9
6.8
19.8
21.8
23.2
25.0
27.8
10.9
15.4
5.1
5.5
.0
2.2
4.3
6.1
2.5
.6
20.0
23.9
26.7
23.3
23.7
17.8
19.6
20.7
20.8
23.2
75.0
79.4
87.1
95.0
97.6
44.5
45.9
50.0
53.9
53.9
38.4
40.2
44.0
4R.6
45.6
6.0
5.7
5.9
8.3
8.3
30.6
33.5
37.1
41.1
43.7
9.0
5.4
5.2
1.4
8.4
76.4
74.3
85.2
90.2
96.6
4.4
5.8
5.4
6.3
8.9
27.6
28.9
30.6
32.7
37.4
23.2
23.1
25.2
26.4
28.4
100.3
108.2
118.0
123.7
129.8
53.7
57.4
63.7
64.6
65.2
44.5
47.0
51.1
50.3
49.0
9.3
10.4
12.7
14.3
16.2
46.5
50.8
54.3
59.0
64.6
4.0
3.4
7.7
5.5
6.9
430.2
464.8
490.4
535.9
579.7
112.0
124.5
120.8
131.5
146.2
7.6
5.1
4.9
2.3
1.8
39.5
42.8
45.6
49.9
54.7
32.0
37.7
40.6
47.7
52.9
138.4
158.7
180.2
198.7
207.9
67.3
78.8
90.9
98.0
97.5
49.4
60.3
71.5
76.9
76.3
17.8
18.5
19.5
21.2
21.2
71.1
79.8
89.3
100.7
110.4
8.2
9.4
5.8
9.1
7.7
982.4 618.8
1,063.4 668.2
, 171. 1 733.0
, 306. 3 808.5
,406.9 885.9
140.8
160.0
188.3
220.5
212.2
3.9
1.6
-3.3
7.4
7.7
62.5
65.6
72.7
101.5
144.2
58.5
64.0
75.9
94.2
136.5
218.9
233.7
253.1
269.9
301.1
95.6
96.2
102.1
102.0
111.7
73.5
70.2
73.5
73.4
77.4
22.1
26.0
28.6
28.6
34.3
123.2
137.5
151.0
168.0
189.4
5.0
8.2
10.1
11.5
7.7
ExNet
exports ports
7.6
Total
National Nonde- defense
fense <
2.8
9.9
1975 *
,499.0
963.2
183.3
21.5
147.3
125.8
330.9
123.1
84.0
39.2
207.8
6.5
1973: 1
,265.0
,287.8
,319.7
,352.7
785.7
800.5
818.4
829.5
211.7
217.1
221.2
231.9
2.0
4.5
10.2
12.8
89.4
96.6
105.2
114.9
87.4
92.1
95.0
102.0
265.7
265.7
270.0
278.4
104.1
99.9
100.0
104.0
74.0
73.0
72.3
74.2
30.1
27.0
27.6
29.8
161.6
165.8
170.0
174.5
15.8
7.4
10.3
10.4
,370.9
,391.0
,424.4
, 441. 3
849.5
877.8
907.7
908.4
218.4
212.7
207.6
210.3
15.6
4.0
3.2
8.2
133.1
141.6
148.6
153.6
117.5
137.6
145.5
145.3
287.5
296.5
305.9
314.4
106.1
108.9
113.6
118.2
74.8
75.8
78.4
80.5
31.4
33.0
35.1
37.7
181.4
187.6
192.3
196.3
5.5
6.0
9.9
4.8
1,433.6
1,460.6
1,528.5
1,573.2
926.4
950.3
977.4
998.7
168.7
161.4
194.9
208.3
17.3
24.2
22.1
22.4
148.2
140.7
148.5
151.9
130.9
116.4
126.4
129.4
321.2
324.7
334.1
343.8
119.4
119.2
124.2
129.8
81.4
82.1
84.9
87.4
38.0
37.1
39.3
42.3
201.9
205.5
209.9
214.1
-2.1
7.7
19.9
12.2
II
III
IV
1974: 1
||
III
IV
1975: 1
II
Ill
IVp
1 See Table B-16 for detailed components.
See Table B-9 for detailed components.
3 Net of Government sales.
* This category Corresponds closely to the national defense classification in "The Budget of the United States Government,
2
s Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from those obtained from data shown here.
Source: Department cf Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
171
TABLE B-2.—Gross national product or expenditure in 1972 dollars, 1946-75
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Personal consumption expenditures
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment
Gross
national
product
Year or quarter
Total
NonDurable durable
Services
goods
goods
Nonresidential
Total
Total
Total
Structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
1946
1947 .
1948
1949
475.7
468.3
487.7
490.7
301.4
306.2
312.8
320.0
25.8
30.6
33.1
36.3
158.9
154.8
155.0
157.4
116.7
120.8
124.6
126.4
71.0
70.1
82.3
65.6
58.8
70.4
76.8
70.0
42.0
48.9
51.0
46.0
18.8
17.3
18.4
17.8
23.2
31.6
32.7
28.2
1950
1951 .
1952
1953
1954
533.5
576.5
598.5
621.8
613.7
338.1
342.3
350.9
364.2
370.9
43.4
39.9
38.9
43.1
43.5
161.8
165.3
171.2
175.7
177.0
132.8
137.1
140.8
145.5
150.4
93.7
94.1
83.2
85.6
83.4
83.2
80.4
78.9
84.1
85.6
50.0
52.9
52.1
56.3
55.4
19.1
20.6
20.6
22.5
23.5
30.9
32.3
31.5
33.8
31.8
1955 ..
1956
1957 _
1958
1959
654.8
668.8
680.9
679.5
720.4
395.1
406.3
414.7
419.0
441.5
52.2
49.8
49.7
46.4
51.8
185.4
191.6
194.9
196.8
205.0
157.5
164.9
170.2
175.8
184.7
104.1
102.9
97.2
87.7
107.4
96.3
97.1
95.7
89.6
101.0
61.2
65.2
66.0
58.9
62.9
25.3
28.1
28.1
26.4
26.8
35.9
37.1
37.9
32.5
36.1
1960
1961
1962
1963 .
1964
736.8
755.3
799.1
830.7
874.4
453.0
462.2
482.9
501.4
528.7
52.5
50.3
55.7
60.7
65.7
208.2
211.9
218.5
223.0
233.3
192.3
200.0
208.7
217.6
229.7
105.4
103.6
117.4
124.5
132.1
101.0
100.7
109.3
116.8
124.8
66.0
65.6
70.9
73.5
81.0
28.8
29.3
30.8
30.8
33.3
37.2
36.3
40.1
42.7
47.7
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
925.9
981.0
1,007.7
1,051.8
1, 078. 8
558.1
586.1
603.2
633.4
655.4
73.4
79.0
79.7
88.2
91.9
244.0
255.5
259.5
270.2
276.4
240.7
251.6
264.0
275.0
287.2
150.1
161.3
152.7
159.5
168.0
138.8
144.6
140.7
150.8
157.5
95.6
106.1
103.5
108.0
114.3
39.6
42.5
41.1
42.0
44.0
56.0
63.6
62.4
66.1
70.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1,075.3
1, 107. 5
1,171.1
1, 233. 4
1, 210. 7
668.9
691.9
733.0
766.3
759.8
88.9
98.1
111.2
120.9
112.5
282.7
287.5
299.3
309.6
303.0
297.3
306.3
322.4
335.8
344.4
154.7
166.8
188.3
207.4
180.0
150.4
160.2
178.8
191.4
172.2
110.0
108.0
116.8
131.3
127.5
42.8
41.7
42.5
45.3
42.7
67.2
66.3
74.3
85.9
84.9
1975 p
1,186.4
766.6
109.3
306.9
350.4
138.9
149.0
112.4
37.1
75.3
1973: 1II
III
IV
1,227.7
1, 228. 4
1, 236. 5
1,240.9
765.8
766.2
770.5
762.8
124.0
122.7
121.2
115.7
310.6
308.2
311.4
308.3
331.2
335.3
337.9
338.9
205.0
206.1
206.0
212.6
193.2
192.5
191.8
188.2
128.6
130.2
132.4
133.9
44.4
44.7
46.2
46.2
84.3
85.6
86.2
87.7
1974: 1 ..
II
Ill
IV ...
1,228.7
1,217.2
1,210.2
1, 186. 8
760.0
763.2
767.2
748.9
114.7
115.5
116.8
102.9
304.5
303.8
304.7
298.9
340.8
343.9
345.7
347.2
195.9
183.8
173.2
166.9
183.6
177.0
169.0
159.3
134.5
129.9
125.0
120.8
46.1
43.5
40.6
40.5
88.4
86.3
84.4
80.3
1, 158. 6
1, 168. 1
1,201.5
1,217.4
752.3
764.1
771.6
778.2
104.0
106.5
112.3
114.5
300.8
306.9
308.0
311.8
347.5
350.8
351.2
351.9
129.7
124.1
147.8
153.9
148.7
144.8
148.7
153.7
115.2
110.8
110.6
113.0
38.9
36.2
36.2
37.3
76.3
74.7
74.5
75.7
1975: 1
II
III. .
IV P . .
.
See footnotes at end of table.
172
TABLE B—2.—Gross national product or expenditure in 1972 dollars, 1946—75—Continued
[Billions of 1972 dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)
Net exports of goods
and services
Gross private domestic
investment—continued
Government purchases
of goods and services l
Fixed investment—continued
Residential
Year or
quarter
Change
in
business
inventories
Percent
change
from
preceding
period,
gross
national
product 2
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
r'ederal
State
and
local
5i5
-4.4
11.6
16.6
8.5
8.8
26.1
30.2
24.2
24.2
14.6
13.6
15.7
15.4
91.8
75.4
84.1
96.2
57.0
36.1
42.4
48.9
34.8
39.3
41.8
47.4
-1.6
4.1
.6
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
10.6
13.7
4.3
1.5
-2.2
4.0
7.4
4.9
2.0
4.5
21.7
25.9
24.9
23.8
25.3
17.7
18.5
20.0
21.8
20.8
97.7
132.7
159.5
170.0
154.9
47.0
81.3
107.0
114.6
95.2
50.7
51.3
52.5
55.4
59.7
8.7
8.1
3.8
3.9
-1.3
.9
1.0
1.0
.9
1.0
.4
.4
.4
.5
.6
7.7
5.8
1.5
-1.8
6.5
4.7
7.3
8.9
3.5
.9
27.9
32.3
34.8
30.7
31.5
23.2
25.0
26.0
27.2
30.6
150.9
152.4
160.1
169.3
170.7
86.9
85.9
89.8
92.8
91.8
64.0
66.5
70.3
76.4
78.9
6.7
2.1
1.8
-.2
6.0
33.7
33.6
36.9
41.7
42.2
.8
1.0
.9
.9
.9
.5
.5
.6
.6
.7
4.4
2.9
8.1
7.8
7.3
5.5
6.7
5.8
7.3
10.9
35.8
37.0
39.6
42.2
47.8
30.3
30.3
33.9
35.0
36.9
172.9
182.8
193.1
197.6
202.7
90.8
95.6
103.1
102.2
100.6
82.0
87.1
90.0
95.4
102.1
2.3
2.5
5.8
4.0
5.3
43.2
38.5
37.2
42.8
43.2
41.6
36.9
35.5
41.1
41.5
.8
.9
.9
.8
.9
.7
.8
.8
.9
.9
11.3
16.7
12.0
8.7
10.6
8.2
4.3
3.5
-.4
-1.3
49.1
51.6
54.2
58.5
62.2
41.0
47.3
50.7
58.9
63.5
209.6
229.3
248.3
259.2
256.7
100.5
112.5
125.3
128.3
121.8
109.1
116.8
123.1
130.9
134.9
5.9
5.9
2.7
4.4
2.6
40.4
52.2
62.0
60.1
44.7
38.9
50.5
60.3
58.4
42.6
.6
.7
.7
.5
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
4.3
6.6
9.4
16.0
7.7
1.4
-.6
-3.3
7.2
16.6
67.1
67.9
72.7
87.6
97.6
65.7
68.5
75.9
80.4
81.0
250.2
249.4
253.1
252.5
254.3
110.7
103.9
102.1
96.1
95.0
139.5
145.5
151.0
156.3
159.3
-.3
3.0
5.7
5.3
-1.8
Total
Nonfarm
structures
Farm
structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
1946
1947
1948
1949
16.8
21.5
25.8
24.0
15.5
19.8
23.9
22.3
.1
.3
.5
.4
0.2
.3
.3
.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
33.2
27.5
26.8
27.8
30.2
31.5
25.9
25.3
26.3
28.8
.3
.3
.2
1.2
1.1
1955
1956.
1957
1958
1959. .
35.1
31.9
29.7
30.6
38.1
33.8
30.4
28.3
29.2
36.5
1960.
1961
1962
1963
1964
35.0
35.1
38.4
43.2
43.8
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972.. .
1973
1974
12.2
1975 p
36.6
35.0
.4
1.2 -10.1
23.5
90.4
66.9
257.4
94.2
163.2
-2.0
1973: 1
II
III....
IV....
64.5
62.3
59.4
54.3
62.7
60.7
57.6
52.4
.6
.4
.5
.6
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
11.9
13.6
14.2
24.4
2.1
5.6
8.9
12.1
84.5
86.7
88.4
90.7
82.3
81.1
79.5
78.6
254.7
250.5
251.1
253.5
100 4
94.9
94.2
94.9
154.3
155.5
156.9
158.5
8.8
.2
2.7
1.4
1974: 1
II
III....
IV
49.1
47.1
44.1
38.5
46.9
45.0
42.0
36.4
.9
.7
.7
.9
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
12.4
6.8
4.2
7.6
18.7
15.3
15.1
17.4
98.1
99.5
96.9
95.7
79.5
84.2
81.9
78.3
254.0
255.0
254.7
253.6
94.7
94.7
95.7
94.7
159.3
160.2
159.0
158.9
-3.9
-3.7
-2.3
-7.5
1975: 1
II
III....
IV P...
33.6
34.0
38.0
40.7
32.3
32.4
36.2
38.9
.3
.4
.6
.5
1.0 -19.0
1.1 -20.7
1.2
-.8
1.2
.2
21.5
24.9
23.5
24.3
90.7
86.8
90.8
93.4
69.2
62.0
67.3
69.1
255.1
254.9
258.7
261.1
93.7
92.4
94.9
95.9
161.4
162.5
163.8
165.2
-9.2
3.3
12.0
5.4
1 Net of Government sales.
2 Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from those obtained from data shown here.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
173
597-578 O - 76 - 12
TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1946-75
[Index numbers, 1972=100, except as noted; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Gross private domestic investment *
Personal consumption expenditures
Fixed investment
Year or
quarter
Gross
national
product »
Nonresidential
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Services
Total
Total
Structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
1946
1947
1948
1949
44.06
49.70
53.13
52.59
47.7
52.8
55.9
55.7
61.1
66.8
69.1
69.1
52.1
58.7
62.3
60.3
38.9
41.7
44.4
46.1
41.3
48.9
53.6
54.8
39.9
46.8
51.3
52.8
36.3
43.7
48.4
48.0
42.8
48.5
52.9
55.9
1950
1951.
1952
1953
1954
53.64
57.27
58.00
58.88
59.69
56.8
60.5
61.9
63.1
63.6
70.8
74.7
74.8
75.5
73.2
60.7
65.8
66.6
66.3
66.6
47.4
49.9
52.6
55.4
57.2
56.5
60.8
62.1
62.9
63.4
54.3
58.9
59.9
61.0
61.4
48.8
54.7
55.8
56.8
55.9
57.6
61.6
62.5
63.7
65.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
60.98
62.90
65.02
66.06
67.52
64.2
65.5
67.6
69.1
70.4
74.0
76.0
79.2
79.4
81.9
66.3
67.3
69.4
71.0
71.4
58.5
60.2
62.2
64.2
66.0
64.8
68.3
70.9
70.8
71.6
62.6
67.0
70.7
70.6
72.0
57.0
61.8
64.4
63.3
63.6
66.5
71.0
75.4
76.5
78.2
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
68.67
69.28
70.55
71.59
72.71
71.7
72.5
73.6
74.7
75.7
82.1
82.7
83.9
84.8
85.7
72.6
73.3
73.9
74.9
75.8
68.0
69.1
70.4
71.7
72.8
71.9
71.6
72.0
72.1
72.8
72.2
71.8
72.3
72.9
73.6
63.1
62.7
63.0
63.5
64.4
79.3
79.2
79.4
79.6
80.1
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
74.32
76.76
79.02
82.57
86.72
77.1
79.3
81.3
84.6
88.5
85.6
85.7
87.4
90.7
93.1
77.3
80.1
81.9
85.3
89.4
74.3
76.5
78.8
82.0
86.1
73.8
76.2
78.7
82.1
86.9
74.5
76.8
79.3
82.6
86.6
65.9
68.8
71.8
75.3
81.1
80.6
82.1
84.3
87.3
90.0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
91.36
96.02
100.00
105.92
116.20
92.5
96.6
100.0
105.5
116.6
95.5
99.0
100.0
101.7
108.4
93.6
96.6
100.0
108.0
124.0
90.5
95.8
100.0
104.6
112.7
91.1
95.9
100.0
106.0
117.6
91.3
96.4
100.0
104.0
116.0
88.0
94.4
100.0
108.0
127.5
93.4
97.6
100.0
101.8
110.2
1975 P
126.35
125.6
116.8
133.6
121.4
132.6
132.3
141.7
127.7
101.9
103.3
104.7
106.0
104.3
106.9
109.0
111.5
100.6
101.4
102.3
103.0
1973: 1
||
III
IV
103.04
104.84
106.73
109.01
102.6
104.5
106.2
108.8
100.7
101.4
102.0
102.8
103.5
106.4
109.0
113.1
102.5
103.8
105.1
106.9
103.2
105.3
107.2
108.5
1974: 1
II
III
IV
111.58
114.28
117.70
121.45
111.8
115.0
118.3
121.3
103.2
106.6
110.4
114.0
118.2
122.4
126.0
129.5
108.9
111.3
114.2
116.4
110.9
115.0
120.2
125.4
108.5
112.9
118.5
125.0
115.9
124.4
133.1
138.3
104.7
107.1
111.5
118.3
1975: !
II
Ill
IV P....
123.74
125.04
127.21
129.22
123.1
124.4
126.7
128.3
114.3
116.3
117.4
118.9
131.0
131.9
135.2
136.2
119.0
120.2
122.2
124.4
130.1
131.9
132.6
135.6
129.6
131.8
132.6
135.2
141.0
141.2
141.4
143.2
123.8
127.3
128.4
131.2
See footnotes at end of table.
174
TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1946-75—Continued
[Index numbers, 1972=100, except as noted; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Gross private domestic
investment^—continued
Fixed investment—continued
Year or
quarter
Exports and
imports of
goods and
services 1
Residential
ProExFarm ducers' ports
struc- durable
tures equipment
Percent change
from preceding
period 2
Government purchases
of goods and services
Imports
Total
Federal
State
and
local
Gross
domestic
product
Gross
Gross
donational mestic
product product
Total
Nonfarm
structures
1946
1947
1948
1949
44.6
53.7
58.1
58.7
43.9
53.0
57.5
58.1
46.6
52.8
57.3
58.0
95.2
105.6
111.5
107.9
56.7
65.8
69.8
65.5
49.7
60.7
66.1
62.7
30.0
33.8
38.0
39.9
30.9
35.1
39.4
41.8
28.6
32.5
36.6
38.0
44.0
49.7
53.1
52.6
12.8
6.9
-1.0
13.0
6.8
-.9
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
60.0
. . 64.4
66.4
66.9
67.1
59.5
63.8
65.8
66.3
66.6
59.4
63.8
65.7
66.2
66.5
107.4
114.9
114.6
114.2
112.4
64.0
73.1
73.0
71.9
71.2
67.8
81.8
79.1
75.8
76.9
39.4
45.3
47.4
48.5
48.9
39.9
47.1
48.9
50.2
50.4
39.0
42.4
44.2
45.1
46.6
53.6
57.2
57.9
58.8
59.6
2.0
6.8
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.9
6.7
1.2
1.6
1.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
68.7
70.9
71.3
71.2
71.0
68.2
70.5
70.8
70.7
70.6
68.3 109.1
70.6 104.3
70.9 103.4
70.8 101.9
70.8 101.8
71.8
73.9
76.4
75.7
75.4
76.8
78.3
79.5
76.5
75.7
49.7
52.1
54.4
56.1
57.2
51.1
53.4
55.7
58.1
58.7
47.8
50.4
52.8
53.8
55.4
60.9
62.8
65.0
66.0
67.5
2.2
3.1
3.4
1.6
2.2
2.2
3.1
3.5
1.5
2.3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
71.4
71.3
71.5
70.9
71.2
70.9
70.9
71.1
70.5
70.8
71.2
70.7
71.3
70.7
71.0
100.8
99.1
96.8
95.3
94.3
77.1
78.0
77.3
77.5
78.3
76.7
76.1
74.5
75.6
77.1
58.0
59.2
61.1
62.6
64.0
59.1
60.0
61.8
63.3
64.8
56.8
58.3
60.3
61.9
63.3
68.6
69.2
70.5
71.6
72.7
1.7
.9
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.6
.9
1.9
1.6
1.5
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
72.3
74.6
77.0
80.7
87.7
72.0
74.2
76.7
80.4
87.5
72.3
74.3
76.7
80.5
87.5
92.1
90.8
91.0
93.2
95.2
80.5
82.8
84.0
85.3
87.9
78.0
79.7
80.1
80.9
83.3
66.0
69.2
72.6
76.7
81.0
67.0
70.1
72.6
76.4
80.0
65.1
68.4
72.5
76.9
81.9
74.3
76.8
79.0
82.6
86.8
2.2
3.3
2.9
4.5
5.0
2.2
3.4
2.9
4.6
5.1
90.6
94.9
... 100.0
110.6
122.1
90.4
94.8
100.0
110.8
122.6
90.5
95.0
100.0
110.7
122.9
97.5
99.3
100.0
100.3
105.4
93.1
96.6
100.0
116.0
147.8
89.1
93.5
100.0
117.1
168.6
87.5
93.7
100.0
106.9
118.4
86.4
92.6
100.0
106.1
117.6
88.3
94.5
100.0
107.5
118.9
91.4
96.0
100.0
105.8
115.7
5.4
5.1
4.1
5.9
9.7
5.3
5.0
4.2
5.8
9.4
1975 v
133.5
134.1
133.7
116.3
162.9
188.0
128.5
130.6
127.3
126.0
8.7
8.9
1973: 1
II
III
IV
105.8
109.7
112.9
114.9
105.9
109.9
113.1
115.2
105.8
109.2
112.8
114.9
100.0
100.2
100.3
100.6
105.8
111.5
119.0
126.7
106.2
113.6
119.5
129.8
104.3
106.1
107.5
109.8
103.6
105.3
106.1
109.5
104.8
106.6
108.3
110.0
103.0
104.8
106.7
108.9
6.5
7.2
7.4
8.8
6.5
7.0
7.4
8.6
1974: 1
II
III
IV
117.4
120.7
124.9
126.7
117.C
121.2
125.4
127.2
117.8
120.9
125.4
127.1
101.4
103.3
106.8
110.8
135.6
142.3
153.4
160.4
147.9
163.4
177.7
185.6
113.2
116.3
120.1
124.0
112.1
114.9
118.6
124.8
113.8
117.1
121.0
123.6
111.2
113.8
117.1
120.9
9.8
10.0
12.5
13.4
8.7
9.8
12.2
13.5
1975: L. ...
II
Ill
IV P....
13L6
132.3
132.5
137.0
132.2
132.9
133.0
137.6
131.4
132.2
133.0
137.4
113.8
115.5
116.8
118.6
163.5
162.0
163.6
162.7
189.1
187.8
187.8
187.3
125.9
127.3
129.2
131.7
127.3
128.9
130.9
135.3
125.1
126.4
128.2
129.6
123.4
124.7
126.8
128.9
7.8
4.3
7.1
6.5
8.5
4.3
7.1
6.6
1970
1971
1972 .
1973
1974
1
Separate deflators are not available for gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, and net
exports of goods and services.
2 Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from those obtained from data shown here.
Quarterly data are at annual rates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
175
TABLE B-4.—Gross national product by major type of product, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Goods output
Year Gross
or
quar- national
ter product
Final nventory
sales change
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
209.6
232.8
259.1
258.0
6.4
203.2
233.2 -.5
4.7
254.4
261.1 -3.1
125.3
139.8
154.4
147.7
6.4
118.9
140.3 -.5
4.7
149.7
150.8 -3.1
37.2
45.8
47.6
46.2
5.3
31.8
1.7
44.1
.7
46.9
48.3 -2.1
88.1
94.0
106.7
101.5
87.1
1.1
96.2 -2.2
102.8
4.0
102.5 -1.0
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
286.2
330.2
347.2
366.1
366.3
6.8
279.4
319.9 10.3
344.0
3.1
.4
365.7
367.8 -1.5
162.4
189.5
194.6
203.1
196.1
6.8
155.6
179.2 10.3
191.5
3.1
.4
202.7
197.6 -1.5
58.8
69.5
68.7
72.4
66.4
4.1
54.7
6.9
62.5
67.6
1.1
.9
71.5
69.0 -2.5
103.6
120.0
125.9
130.8
129.6
100.9
116.7
123.9
131.2
128.7
2.7
3.4
2.0
-.5
1.0
88.2
102.9
113.1
121.0
125.7
35.6
37.8
39.4
42.0
44.5
15.5
13.4
12.2
16.3
14.9
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
399.3
420.7
442.8
448.9
486.5
6.0 214.5
393.3
4.7 223.3
416.0
1.3 232.3
441.4
450.4 -1.5 228.2
5.2 247.4
481.2
208.5
6.0
4.7
218.6
231.0
1.3
229.7 -1.5
5.2
242.2
81.3
85.1
88.5
77.7
90.1
3.0 133.2
78.2
2.8 138.1
82.3
1.3 143.7
87.3
80.5 -2.8 150.5
2.7 157.4
87.4
130.3
136.3
143.7
149.2
154.8
2.9
1.9
.0
1.3
2.5
135.3
145.2
157.5
166.9
179.5
49.5
52.2
53.0
53.8
59.5
21.5
17.2
19.6
14.6
19.6
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
506.0
523.3
563.8
594.7
635.7
502.2
521.1
557.3
588.8
629.9
3.8
2.2
6.5
6.0
5.8
254.3
256.5
278.0
289.7
309.0
250.6
254.3
271.5
283.7
303.2
3.8
2.2
6.5
6.0
5.8
91.5
90.0
102.0
108.0
118.9
89.1
90.2
98.4
105.4
115.0
2.4
-.1
3.6
2.7
3.9
162.8
166.5
176.1
181.6
190.1
161.4
164.1
173.2
178.3
188.2
1.4
2.3
2.9
3.3
1.9
193.2
206.7
221.5
236.2
254.4
58.4
60.1
64.3
68.9
72.4
21.6
18.1
22.9
25.6
26.5
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
688.1
753.0
796.3
868.5
935.5
678.6
738.7
786.2
860.8
926.2
9.5
14.3
10.1
7.7
9.4
336.6
373.9
387.3
418.9
446.2
327.1
359.6
377.2
411.2
436.8
9.5
14.3
10.1
7.7
9.4
133.6
149.1
148.7
162.4
175.3
127.0
139.0
143.5
157.4
169.2
6.6
10.0
5.3
5.0
6.1
203.1
224.9
238.5
256.5
270.9
200.1
220.6
233.7
253.8
267.6
2.9
4.3
4.8
2.8
3.3
272.7
297.7
326.1
356.6
388.7
78.8
81.4
82.9
93.0
100.7
31.8
31.1
28.8
36.6
36.8
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
982.4
1,063.4
1, 171. 1
1,306.3
1,406.9
978.6
1,057.1
1, 161. 7
1,288.8
1,397.2
3.8
6.4
9.4
17.5
9.7
456.2
479.8
526.0
599.8
636.3
452.4
473.5
516.6
582.3
626.5
3.8
6.4
9.4
17.5
9.7
170.8
181.6
208.4
239.1
246.1
170.7
179.8
202.1
228.8
238.5
.0
1.8
6.3
10.3
7.5
285.4
298.3
317.7
360.7
390.2
281.7
293.7
314.5
353.5
388.0
3.7
4.6
3.2
7.2
2.2
424.6
465.5
510.8
559.5
624.1
101.6
118.1
134.3
147.0
146.6
30.8
42.0
45.1
51.1
43.8
Total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Final nvenFinal nvenFinal nventory Total sales
Total sales
tory Total sales
tory
change
change
hange
Auto
Serv- Struc- outices tures put
68.6 15.7
71.3 21.7
76.7 28.0
81.9 28.4
~7.~3
8.9
12.0
1975* 1, 449. 0 1,513.2 -14.2 677.3 691.5 -14.2 251.0 261.9 -10.9 426.3 429.6 -3.3 680.6 141.1 45.0
1973:
1,265.0 1, 252. 6
i f " 1,287.8 1,273.5
III. 1, 319. 7 1, 304. 1
IV. 1,352.7 1,325.0
1974:
1,370.9 1, 356. 1
if I 1,391.0 1,381.7
III. 1, 424. 4 1, 420. 0
IV. 1,441.3 1,430.9
1975:
12.4
14.3
15.6
27.7
578.0
588.2
605.3
627.8
565.6
573.9
589.7
600.1
12.4
14.3
15.6
27.7
233.3
237.7
241.6
243.7
226.5
228.2
230.2
230.2
6.8
9.5
11.4
13.5
344.7
350.5
363.7
384.1
339.0
345.6
359.5
369.9
540.8
552.7
565.8
578.8
146.3
147.0
148.6
146.1
54.6
53.3
48.7
47.9
14.9
9.3
4.4
10.4
622.8
629.9
644.6
647.7
607.9
620.6
640.2
637.3
14.9
9.3
4.4
10.4
238.0
240.4
251.7
254.1
231.4
237.7
245.8
239.3
6.7
2.7
5.9
14.9
384.7
389.5
393.0
393.6
8.2 602.1
376.6
6.5 612.0
383.0
394.4 -1.4 632.5
398.0 -4.4 649.7
146.1
149.1
147.2
143.9
39.0
42.9
51.7
41.7
5.6
4.9
4.2
14.2
1, 433. 6 1, 458. 4 -24.8 635.4 660.2 -24.8 229.2 243.8 -14.6 406.2 416.4 -10.2 659.3
672.0
3.5 688.1
7.7 702.7
[\~. 1, 460. 6 1, 490. 2 -29.6 653.9 683.5 -29.6 243.3 258.8 -15.5 410.6 424.7 -14.
III. 1, 528. 5 1,530.6 -2.1 698.9 701.1 -2.1 261.9 267.5 -5.6 437.0 433.5
269.6 277.4 -7.8 451.3 443.7
720.9 721.1
IVp 1, 573. 2 1, 573. 4
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
176
138.9 35.1
134.6 42.9
141.4 54.2
149.6 47.7
TABLE B-5.—Gross national product by major type oj product in 1972 dollars, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Goods output
Year Gross
or
quar- national
ter product
Final
sales
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
475.7
468.3
487.7
490.7
463.5 12.2
2
468.5
5! 5
482.2
495. 1 -4.4
238.0
236.8
244.2
239.9
225.8 12.2
237.0 -.2
238.7
5.5
244.3 -4.4
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
533.5
576.5
598.5
621.8
613.7
522.9 10.6
562.8 13.7
4.3
594.2
1.5
620.3
615.8 -2.2
261.5
283.1
292.3
306.9
292.2
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
654.8
668.8
680.9
679.5
720.4
7.7
647.1
5.8
663.0
679.4
1.5
681.3 -1.8
6.5
714.0
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
736.8
755.3
799.1
830.7
874.4
732.4
752.4
791.0
823.0
867.1
1965.
925.9
1966.
981.0
1967. 1,007.7
1968. 1,051.8
1969. 1,078.8
1970.
1971
19721973.
1974.
Inventory
change
Total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Final InvenFinal nvenFinal Inventory Total sales
tory Total sales
Total sales
tory
change
change
change
71.3
76.7
77.1
72.4
Serv- Struc- Auto
ices tures output
60.5 10.8
74.9
1.8
75.6
1.5
76.1 -3.7
166.7
160.1
167.1
167.5
165.3
1.3
162.1 -2.0
163.1 4.0
168.2 -.8
197.7
186.9
190.9
197.0
40.0
44.7 ~i2.~9
52.5 14.7
53.7 18.9
250.9 10.6
269.4 13.7
288.0
4.3
305.4
1.5
294.4 -2.2
90.7 84.4
6.3
102.4 92.6
9.8
102.3 100.6
1.8
107.3 105.9
1.4
98.1 101.7 -3.6
170.7
180.7
189.9
199.6
194.1
166.5
176.8
187.4
199.5
192.7
4.2
3.9
2.5
.1
1.4
206.0
229.0
240.6
245.5
247.0
66.0
64.4
65.6
69.4
74.5
24.0
20.4
18.4
23.9
22.9
316.3
320.9
321.8
312.0
332.5
308.6
7.7
315.1
5.8
320.3
1.5
313.8 -1.8
326.1
6.5
117.1
117.2
116.1
101.4
113.8
112.9
113.5
114.6
104.8
110.6
4.2
3.7
1.5
-3.4
3.3
199.2
203.7
205.7
210.6
218.7
195.7
201.6
205.6
209.0
215.5
3.5
2.1
.0
1.6
3.2
257.6
267.2
279.3
285.6
298.0
80.9
80.7
79.9
81.9
89.9
31.3
24.4
25.8
20.0
24.7
4.4
2.9
8.1
7.8
7.3
337.1
338.1
362.0
373.0
394.0
332.8
335.2
353.8
365.2
386.7
4.4
2.9
8.1
7.8
7.3
114.4
112.5
125.5
131.8
144.2
111.6
112.6
121.1
128.4
139.2
2.9
-.1
4.4
3.4
5.0
222.7
225.6
236.5
241.1
249.9
221.2
222.7
232.7
236.8
247.5
1.5
3.0
3.7
4.3
2.3
310.7 89.0
325.5 91.7
339.9 97.2
354.0 103.8
372.2 108.1
26.8
22.6
27.5
30.3
31.1
914.6
964.3
995.7
, 043. 1
,068.2
11.3
16.7
12.0
8.7
10.6
421.5
455.6
461.9
481.1
492.3
410.2
438.9
449.9
472.4
481.7
11.3
16.7
12.0
8.7
10.6
160.6
177.1
173.0
181.3
190.1
152.6
165.2
166.6
175.7
183.3
8.0
11.9
6.4
5.6
6.8
261.0
278.5
288.9
299.8
302.2
257.7
273.7
283.3
296.7
298.4
3.3
4.8
5.6
3.2
3.7
389.1
410.2
432.7
449.9
465.4
115.3
115.2
113.1
120.9
121.1
37.4
36.7
33.5
40.6
40.0
1,075.3 ,071.0
1,107.5 ,100 9
1,171.1 ,161.7
1,233.4 1,217.3
1,210.7 1,203.0
4.3
6.6
9.4
16.0
7.7
483.4
491.6
526.0
568.6
549.9
479.1
484.9
516.6
552.6
542.2
4.3
6.6
9.4
16.0
7.7
179.2
183.4
208.4
234.5
223.5
179.1
181.5
202.1
224.5
217.7
.1
1.8
6.2
10.0
5.8
304.2
308.2
317.7
334.1
326.5
300.0
303.4
314.5
328.0
324.5
4.2
4.8
3.2
6.1
1.9
477.2
491.1
510.8
530.1
544.7
114.6
124.9
134.3
134.7
116.1
32.5
4? 1
45.1
50.7
40.2
-8.0 327.4 329.5 -2.1 553.9 101.4
39.5
1975* 1,186.4 1, 196. 5 -10.1
531.1 541.2 -10.1 203.7 211.7
1973:
I...
II —
III..
IV--
1,227.7
1,228.4
1,236.5
1,240.9
1,215.8
1,214.8
1,222.3
1,216.5
11.9
13.6
14.2
24.4
564.8
564.6
569.0
576.1
552.9
551.0
554.8
551.7
11.9
13.6
14.2
24.4
231.7
235.0
235.8
235.5
225.0
225.8
224.8
222.6
6.7
9.2
11.0
12.9
333.0
329.6
333.2
340.6
327.9
325.2
330.0
329.2
5.2
4.4
3.2
11.5
523.6
527.8
533.2
535.8
139.4
136.0
134.3
129.0
54.5
53.0
48.4
46.9
1974:
1
if."
III..
IV_-
1,228.7
1,217.2
1,210.2
1,186.8
1,216.3
1,210.4
1,206.0
1,179.3
12.4
6.8
4.2
7.6
560.4
555.1
552.4
531.9
548.0
548.2
548.2
524.4
12.4
6.8
4.2
7.6
227.9
224.0
226.0
215.9
221.8
222.0
221.6
205.2
6.1
2.0
4.4
10.7
332.5
331.0
326.4
316.1
326.2
6.3
326.2
4.9
2
326.6
319.2 -3.'l
543.7
541.8
545.1
548.1
124.6
120.4
112.7
106.8
38.8
40.3
45.6
36.1
1975:
1...
II...
III..
IVp.
1,158.6
1,168.1
1,201.5
1,217.4
1,177.6 -19.0
1,188.7 -20.7
1,202.4 -.8
.2
1,217.2
510.1
518.4
542.7
553.3
529.2 -19.0
539.0 -20.7
543.5 -.8
.2
553.1
191.6
198.2
210.7
214.4
203.4
209.7
214.3
219.3
-11.7
-11.5
-3.7
-4.9
318.5
320.2
332.0
338.9
325.8 -7.3 548.1 100.4
329.4 -9.2 552.5 97.2
2.8 556.7 102.2
329.2
333.8
5.1 558.2 106.0
32.1
38.0
46.5
41.3
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
177
TABLE B~6.—Gross national product by sector, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross domestic product
Gross
Year or quarter national
product
Business
Total
Total
Government
Nonfarm *
StatisFarm tical
discrepancy
2
Households
and
institutions
Total
Fed- State
and
eral local
Rest
of the
world
Percent
change
from
preceding
period,
gross
domestic
products
1946
1947
1948
1949
209.6
232.8
259.1
258.0
209.0
231.8
257.9
256.9
183.8
210.0
234.9
231.5
164.2
188.0
212.7
211.7
18.9 0.7
20.2
1.8
23.3 -1.2
18.8
1.0
4.5
5.1
5.6
5.9
20.8
16.7
17.4
19.4
14.6
9.4
8.9
10.0
6.2
7.3
8.5
9.4
0.5
.9
1.2
1.1
10.9
11.3
-.4
1950
1951
1952
1953 .
1954
286.2
330.2
347.2
366.1
366.3
284.8
328.7
345.7
364.6
364.5
257.5
294.4
307.3
324.9
323.9
235.5
267.4
282.5
301.2
301.3
20.0
22.9
22.2
20.3
19.6
2.0
4.0
2.7
3.3
3.0
6.4
6.9
7.2
7.8
8.1
20.9
27.4
31.2
31.9
32.5
10.7
16.2
18.9
18.6
17.8
10.1
11.2
12.3
13.3
14.7
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.8
10.9
15.4
5.2
5.5
-.0
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
399.3
420.7
442.8
448.9
486.5
397.3
418.5
440.5
446.6
484.0
354.0
372.1
390.8
393.1
427.7
332.8
354.3
372.3
370.7
408.9
18.8
18.6
18.4
20.7
19.1
2.5
-.8
.2
1.7
-.2
9.1
9.8
10.5
11.4
12.3
34.2
36.6
39.1
42.1
44.0
18.4
19.0
19.6
20.5
20.9
15.8
17.6
19.6
21.6
23.1
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.4
9.0
5.3
5.2
1.4
8.4
506.0
523.3
563.8
594.7
635.7
503.5
520.2
560.2
591.1
631.4
442.5
455.3
490.4
516.5
550.7
423.0
433.4
465.9
492.2
529.2
20.2
20.2
20.5
20.5
19.3
7.6
4.0
3.7
2.2
13.8
14.4
15.5
16.6
17.8
47.1
50.5
54.3
58.0
62.9
21.7
22.6
24.1
25.2
27.0
25.5
27.9
30.2
32.9
35.9
2.5
3.1
3.6
3.7
4.4
4.0
3.3
7.7
5.5
6.8
688.1
753.0
796.3
868.5
935.5
683.4
748.8
791.8
863.7
931.1
596.6
651.1
682.7
742.2
798.1
573.8
625.0
658.8
720.2
776.2
.9
22.0
22.9
3.2
22.2
1.7
22.6 -.6
25.2 -3.3
19.2 67.6
21.1 76.5
23.9 85.1
26.4 95.2
29.2 103.7
28.3 39.3
32.4 44.1
35.6 49.5
39.3 55.9
41.8 61.9
4.7
4.2
4.6
4.8
4.5
8.2
9.6
5.7
9.1
7.8
982.4
,063.4
, 171. 1
,306.3
,406.9
,499.0
977.8
,056.8
, 164. 1
, 297. 3
,392.5
, 488.5
831.5
896.9
989.5
,107.8
,186.6
,262.7
807.6
867.9
955.8
,057.0
,138.7
,217.3
25.9 -2.1
27.7
1.3
1.7
32.0
50.4
48.5 -!e
50.1 -4.6
31.6
34.7
37.2
40.4
44.8
49.5
114.7
125.2
137.4
149.1
161.1
176.3
44.7 70.0
46.8 78.5
50.1 87.3
51.9 97.2
54.7 106.4
58.8 117.4
4.6
6.6
7.0
9.0
14.4
10.5
5.0
8.1
10.1
11.4
7.3
6.9
1973: 1
,265.0
,287.8
,319.7
,352.7
,256.3
, 279. 1
,311.0
;342.8
,072.3
, 091. 4
,119.9
,147.3
,026.4
,044.2
,065.0
,092.3
3.2
42.8
48.1 -.9
1.0
54.0
56.8 -1.8
38.7
40.1
41.1
41.8
145.3
147.6
150.0
153.6
51.7 93.6
51.3 96.3
51.4 98.5
53.3 100.4
8.8
8.7
8.7
10.0
15.7
7.5
10.4
10.0
1974- 1
, 370. 9
,391.0
,424.4
,441.3
, 353. 9
, 378. 9
, 410. 6
,426.6
,154.3 , 105. 1
,175.8 ,132.5
, 203. 1 ,155.6
!213.2 ,161.7
55.4 -6.2
44.8 -1.6
45.1 2.4
48.6
2.9
43.1
44.1
45.6
46.5
156.6
159.0
161.9
166.9
53.7
53.8
54.3
56.9
102.9
105.2
107.6
110.0
17.0
12.1
13.7
14.8
3.4
7.6
9.5
4.6
,433.6
,460.6
, 528. 5
, 573. 2
,424.0
,450.6
,516.9
,562.6
,205.5
,227.4
,289.2
,328.7
,162.9
, 191. 3
, 237. 5
45.8 -3.2
45.1 -8.9
55.0 -3.2
54.4
47.5
48.7
50.2
51.6
170.9
174.5
177.4
182.3
57.6
58.1
58.6
61.1
113.3
116.4
118.8
121.2
9.6
10.0
11.6
10.6
19.6
12.6
1960
1961 ...
1962
1963
1964 .
....
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971 .
1972
1973
1974
1975 v
||
III
IV
II
III
IV
1975: 1
II
Ill
IV»
...
1; 7
1 Includes compensation of employees in government enterprises.
2
Compensation of government employees.
a Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ slightly from those obtained from data shown here.
See table B-l for percent changes in gross national product.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
178
TABLE B-7.—Gross national product by sector in 1972 dollars, 1946-75
[Billions of 1972 dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross domestic product
Year or quarter
Gross
national
product
Business
Total
Nonfarm 1
Households
and
instiFarm Residual 2 tutions
Total
Percent
change
from
Government 3
Rest precedof the
ing
world period,
State
gross
Total Fedand
domestic4
eral local
product
475.7
468.3
487.7
490.7
474.6
466.7
485.9
488.8
383.7
392.8
411.2
409.4
356.6
365.6
387.5
382.0
25.8 1.4 15.1
23.9 3.3 16.0
25.7 -2.1 16.7
25.5 1.8 17.3
75.8
57.9
58.0
62.2
49.7
29.8
29.2
31.3
26.1
28.1
28.8
30.9
1.1*
1.6
1.8
1.9
-1.7
4.1
.6
533.5
576.5
598.5
621.8
613.7
531.5
574.7
596.7
619.9
611.4
448.6
477.2
492.8
515.6
508.0
418.2
445.0
462.2
482.6
474.9
26.9
25.8
26.3
27.6
28.3
3.5
6.5
4.3
5.3
4.7
18.3
18.7
18.6
19.3
19.4
64.6
78.8
85.3
85.0
83.9
32.7
46.2
51.6
49.6
47.2
31.9
32.6
33.7
35.5
36.7
1.9
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.3
8.7
8.1
3.8
3.9
-1.4
654.8
668.8
680.9
679.5
720.4
652.2
666.1
678.0
676.5
717.3
546.5
557.2
566.0
561.9
600.5
513.5
529.6
537.6
530.2
572.6
29.2 3.8
28.8 -1.2
28.1
.3
29.3 2.4
28.2 -.3
21.4
22.5
23.1
24.2
24.9
84.4
86.5
88.9
90.4
91.8
45.9
45.6
45.8
44.5
44.5
38.4
40.8
43.1
45.8
47.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.2
6.7
2.1
1.8
-.2
6.0
736.8
755.3
799.1
830.7
874.4
733.6
751.2
794.3
825.8
868.7
611.8
625.6
663.9
692.0
730.4
583.2
593.8
628.9
657.1
698.2
29.5
29.6
29.5
30.0
29.2
26.8 94.9
27.2 98.5
28.3 102.1
29.0 104.8
29.9 108.4
45.2
46.2
48.3
48.2
48.5
49.7
52.3
53.9
56.6
60.0
3.2
4.1
4.8
4.9
5.7
2.3
2.4
5.7
4.0
5.2
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
925.9
919.9
981.0 975.6
1,007.7 1,001.9
1,051.8 ,045.7
1,078.8 , 073. 1
776.4
822.4
839.8
878.2
901.5
745.2
789.9
808.0
849.5
875.2
30.1 1.2
28.5 4.0
29.6 2.1
29.4 -.7
29.9 -3.7
112.4
120.4
127.2
131.7
135.0
48.7
53.0
57.2
58.1
58.2
63.6
67.5
70.0
73.6
76.8
6.1
5.4
5.8
6.1
5.7
5.9
6.1
2.7
4.4
2.6
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1,075.3
1, 107. 5
1,171.1
1,233.4
1,210.7
,069.8
898.3 869.4
, 100. 3 927.6 893.4
, 164. 1 989.5 955.7
,225.7 1, 049. 1 1,015.6
, 203. 7 1, 024. 4 993.5
31.1 -2.2 36.3 135.2
32.8 1.4 36.6 136.0
1.7 37.2 137.4
32.0
33.2
.3 37.9 138.7
31.5 -.5 38.5 140.8
55.2
52.5
50.1
48.2
47.9
80.1
83.5
87.3
90.6
92.9
5.5
7.2
7.0
7.7
7.0
-.3
2.9
5.8
5.3
-1.8
1975 P
1,186.4
, 181. 6
997.3
965.9
35.1 -3.7
39.2 145.1
47.8
97.3
4.8
-1.8
1973: 1
II
Ill
IV
1,227.7
1,228.4
1,236.5
1,240.9
,219.4
, 220. 8
,229.2
,233.4
1,044.5
1,044.5
1, 052. 0
1,055.2
1,007.5
1,012.4
1,019.8
1, 022. 5
34.0 3.1
32.9 -.8
31.3
.9
34.5 -1.7
37.0
37.7
38.3
38.5
137.9
138.6
138.9
139.6
49.0
48.4
47.7
47.6
88.9
90.2
91.2
92.0
8.3
7.6
7.3
7.5
8.7
.5
2.8
1.4
1974: 1
II
III
IV
1,228.7
1,217.2
1,210.2
1,186.8
,218.0
,211.9
,204.6
,180.3
1,039.7 1,013.7
1, 033. 1 1, 002. 9
991.8
1,024.7
1, 000. 1 965.8
31.5 -5.6
31.6 -1.4
31.0
2.0
31.9 2.4
38.4
38.3
38.8
38.4
139.8
140.5
141.1
141.8
47.9
48.0
48.0
47.9
91.9
92.5
93.1
94.0
10.7
5.4
5.6
6.5
-4.9
-2.0
-2.-4
-7.8
1975: 1
II
Ill
IV p
1, 158. 6 ,154.3 972.1
1, 168. 1 , 163. 5 979.5
1,201.5 , 196. 1 1,011.1
1,217.4 1, 212. 6 1, 026. 8
35.0 -2.6
32.3 -7.1
36.5 -2.5
36.8
38.8
39.2
39.4
39.5
143.5
144.8
145.7
146.3
47.9
47.8
47.8
47.7
95.7
97.0
97.8
98.7
4.3
4.5
5.4
4.9
-8.5
3.2
11.7
5.6
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
. ...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
..
..
939.6
954.3
977.1
-.9
2.2
5.4
5.0
3.0
31.1
32.8
34.8
35.9
36.6
1 Includes compensation of employees in government enterprises. Data are preliminary.
2 The difference between gross product in 1972 dollars measured as the sum of final products and that measured as the
sum of gross product by industry. Data are preliminary.
3 Compensation of government employees.
4
Changes are based on unrounded data and therefore may differ from those obtained from data shown here. See table
B-2 for percent changes in gross national product in 1972 dollars.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
179
TABLE B—8.—Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business, 1946—75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Net domestic product
Gross Capdo- ital
Domestic income
mes- conInditic umpprod- tion
rect
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
busiconsumption adjustments
uct llowof ances
ness
Year
Comwith
or
taxes
nonpenquarter finan- capiProfits before tax
plus
tal Total ranscial
sation
Inven- Capi- Net
fer Total of
tory
tal
cor- conntersumppayemProfits after tax
valu- con- est
poploy- Total
Profits
rate tion
ments
ation sumpees
tax
less
adbusi- adtion
Total labilsubUndis- just- adness justDivi- tribu- ment justment
sidies
ity
Total dends ted
ment
profits
67.2 14.1 22.0 8.6 13.4
79.1 19.9 29.1 10.8 18.3
87.8 25.8 31.8 11.8 20.0
9.3
15.6
5.1
5.9
6.5
6.5
16.9
21.2
17.8
18.5
15.6
21.6
17.9
16.0
16.4
16.4
7.9
7.8
7.8
8.0
8.2
21. 8« -9.4
21.8 10.1
20.7 10.4
17.5 10.2
22.3 10.8
1946....
1947....
1948....
1949. ...
99.3
20.0
37.3
33.5
10.7
11.6
7.3 92.1
9.1 10.9
26.5
21.9
10.1
11.2
12.1
12.6
85.3
23.0
24.9
1950....
1951....
1952....
1953....
1954....
51.9
74.5
82.3
95.0
91.9
12.6
14.6
15.7
17.0
17.9
39.3
159.9
166.7
178.1
174.1
14.1
15.2
16.8
18.2
17.4
25.2 94.7
144.7 10.2
149.8 18.3
159.9 128.7
156.6 126.5
29.6
33.4
30.3
29.9
28.6
38.5
39.1
33.8
34.9
32.1
1955.... 216.7
1956.... 231.6
1957.... 242.3
1958.... 236.3
1959.... 265.7
19.2
21.5
23.7
24.9
26.0
197.5
210.1
218.5
211.4
239.7
19.2
20.8
22.4
22.8
25.4
178.3
189.2
196.2
188.6
214.4
138.5
151.4
159.1
155.9
171.6
38.2
36.1
35.0
30.1
39.7
42.0 20.2
41.8 20.1
39.8 19.1
33.7 16.2
43.1 20.7
I960.... 277.3
1961.... 284.5
1962.... 311.0
1963.... 330.9
1964.... 357.6
27.0
27.8
28.7
29.8
31.0
250.3
256.7
282.3
301.1
326.6
28.3
30.1
33.0
35.6
38.4
222.0
226.5
249.2
265.6
288.3
181.1
185.1
199.8
210.7
226.3
37.4
37.4
44.9
50.0
56.7
39.5
39.2
43.7
48.3
54.6
19.2
19.5
20.6
22.8
24.0
20.3
19.7
23.1
25.5
30.7
11.5
11.7
12.7
14.1
15.3
1965.... 392.1 32.8 359.3
1966.... 430.7 35.7 394.9
1967.... 452.9 39.3 413.6
1968... 498.4 43.0 455.4
1969... 541.8 47.8 494.0
41.1
42.9
45.8
51.6
57.1
318.2
352.0
367.9
403.8
437.0
246.1
273.5
291.9
321.6
357.4
66.1
71.2
67.2
72.1
66.4
64.4
69.5
65.4
71.9
68.4
27.2
29.5
27.7
33.6
33.3
37. 2 ,
40.0
37.7,
38.3
35.1
17.2 k.20.0
18.1 21.9
18.9 18.8
20.7 17.6
20.7 14.4
507.5
544.2
608.4
683.2
730.4
61.8
68.2
73.5
80.6
86.0
445.7
476.0
534.8
602.6
644.4
377.1
399.4
443.8
502.2
549.5
51.6 55.1
58.7 63.3
72.0 75.9
75.9 92.8
63.2 103.8
27.3
29.9
33.5
39.1
42.7
27.9. ,.19.9
33.3 20.0
42.4 21.7
53.7 24.5
61.1 30.5
80.7
97.7
728.1 65.6 662.5 78.8 583.8 483.4 78.6
IL." 742.6 67.7 675.0 80.3 594.7 496.0 75.3
III— 758.5 69.3 689.3 81.3 607.9 507.6 75.0
IV... 778.3 72.2 706.2 82.0 624.2 521.9 74.8
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
560.6
602.5
671.0
751.9
808.7
53.1
58.2
62.6
68.7
78.3
1975 P.. 866.1 89.5 776.5
0.7
.8
.9
1.0
13.6
10.1
-5.0 -3.9
-1.2 -4.5
1.0 -4.4
-1.0 -4.0
-.3 -3.2
.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.6
12.4
11.6
10.3
-1:7 -2.1
-2.7 -3.0
-1.5 -3.3
-.3 -3.4
-.5 -2.9
1.6
1.7
2.2
2.7
3.1
.3 -2.3
.1 -1.8
.1 1.0
-.2 1.9
-.5 2.6
3.5
3.9
4.5
4.8
5.3
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.5
6.1
7.4
8.7
10.1
13.1
1.5
8.0 -5.1
.5
13.3 -5.0
20.7 -6.6 2.7
1.6
29.2 -18.4
30.6 -38.5 -2.1
17.0
17.9
19.1
24.5
31.7
37.3
60.4, .30.8 .29.6 -11.5 -5.6
34.3
91.9
93.8
91.9
93.5
39.3
39.7
38.5
39.0
52.7
54.1
53.4
54.5
23.2
23.9
25.2
25.6
29.5
30.1
28.2
29.0
-15.8
-20.6
-17.9
-19.5
2.5
2.1
1.0
.7
21.8
23.4
25.3
27.5
531.9
544.8
559.0
562.3
68.1 96.7
68.6 103.8
61.2 118.4
54.8 96.3
39.7
42.8
48.9
39.4
57.0
61.1
69.6
56.9
26.5
32.6
32.7
30.4
30.5
28.5
36.9
26.5
-28.0 -.6
-33.7 -1.5
-54.7 -2.5
-37.7 -3.8
29.1
31.0
32.6
34.0
88.5 642.9 554.4
91.6 666.2 556.9
95.5 699.8 572.7
96.9
590.0
55.3 73.1
75.7 86.8
92.7 108.5
27.1
32.0
41.6
46.0
54.8
66.8
30.1
30.7
31.3
15.9 -13.7 -4.1
24.0 -6.6 -4.5
35.5 -9.9 -5.9
-15.8 -7.8
33.2
33.6
34.4
35.8
93.1 683.4 568.5
1973:
1974:
786.2 74.1 712.1
ll~.~.~.~. 806.5 76.5 730.0
III— 820.3 79.7 740.6
IV... 821.8 83.1 738.7
1975:
816.4
IL." 845.1
Ill— 886.2
IV*.
85.0 731.4
87.3 757.8
91.0 795.3
94.9
83.0
85.6
87.8
87.5
629.1
644.4
652.8
651.2
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
8.3
-5.3 -2.7
-5.9 -3.3
-2.2 -3.9
1.9 -3.8
81.9
99.8
14.4
09.3
180
12.4
13.5
9.1
8.1
8.4
8.2
7.3
11.5
8.7
8.0
10.3
11.4
15.4
-1.9
-2.1
-1.7
-3.4
-5.5
TABLE B-9.—Gross private domestic investment, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Change in
business
inventories
Fixed investment
Year or
quarter
Gross
private
domestic
invest- Total
ment
Nonresidential
Structures
Total
Total
Nonfarm
Residential
Producers'
durable
equipment
9.9
15.3
17.3
15.7
7.5
11.5
15.0
14.1
6.8
10.5
13.8
12.9
0.5
.7
.9
.8
0.2
.3
.3
.3
6.4
-.5
4.7
-s;i
6.4
1.3
3.0
-2.2
17.8
19.9
19.7
21.5
20.8 ------23.9
26.3
28.6
24.9
28.3 "25.Y
19.9
17.7
17.8
18.6
20.3
18.7
16.6
16.6
17.5
19.2
.8
.8
.8
.8
.7
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
6.8
10.3
3.1
.4
-1.5
6.0
9.1
2.1
1.1
-2.1
24.1
22.6
21.2
21.8
27.0
23.0
21.4
20.0
20.7
25.8
.6
.4
.5
6.0
4.7
1.3
-1.5
5.2
5.5
5.1
.8
-2.3
5.3
.6
3.5
1.9
5.8
5.2
6.4
Total
Nonfarm
30.7
34.0
45.9
35.3
24.3
34.4
41.1
38.4
16.8
22.9
26.2
24.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
53.8
59.2
52.1
53.3
52.7
47.0
48.9
49.0
52.9
54.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
68.4
71.0
69.2
61.9
77.6
62.4
66.3
67.9
63.4
72.3
27.1 9.3
31.1 11.3
31.2 11.5
34.3 12.8
34.0 13.2 ------38.3 14.4
43.7 17.4
46.7 18.1
41.6 16.7
45.3 17.0 ~~16.T
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
76.4
74.3
85.2
90.2
96.6
72.7
72.1
78.7
84.2
90.8
47.7 18.2
47.1 18.4
51.2 19.4
53.6 19.6
59.7 21.5
17.3
17.5
18.5
18.6
20.5
29.5
28.7
31.8
34.0
38.2
27.0
26.1
28.9
30.6
34.6
25.0
25.0
27.4
30.6
31.2
23.9
23.8
26.3
29.4
29.9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
112.0
124.5
120.8
131.5
146.2
102.5
110.2
110.7
123.8
136.8
71.3
81.4
82.1
89.3
98.9
26.1
29.2
29.5
31.6
35.7
25.1
28.1
28.2
30.4
34.3
45.1
52.2
52.6
57.7
63.3
41.2 31.2
47.9 28.7
48.0 28.6
53.4 34.5
58.9 37.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
140.8
160.0
188.3
220.5
212.2
137.0
153.6
178.8
203.0
202.5
100.5 37.7
104.1 39.3
116.8 42.5
136.5 49.0
147.9 54.4
36.1
37.8
41.1
46.8
52.1
62.8
64.7
74.3
87.5
93.5
58.1
59.9
69.1
80.7
86.0
36.6
49.6
62.0
66.5
54.6
.
Nonfarm
Total
1946
1947
1948
1949
6.8
7.6
8.9
8.6
ProTotal
Farm ducers'
struc- durable
tures equipment
Nonfarm
structures
'.7
.7
.7
!5
.6
.5
.5
.7
.7
!e
.6
3.8
2.2
6.5
6.0
5.8
29.9
27.4
27.2
33.1
36.3
.6
.7
.'6
.7
.7
.7
.7
.8
.9
9.5
14.3
10.1
7.7
9.4
8.5
14.5
9.4
7.6
9.2
35.1
47.9
60.3
64.7
52.2
.6
.7
.7
.6
1.0
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
3.8
6.4
9.4
17.5
9.7
3.7
5.1
8.8
14.1
11.6
le
1975 P
183.3
197.5 148.7
52.6
50.4
96.1
88.4
48.8
46.9
.6
1.3 -14.2
1973: 1
II
ML...
IV
211.7
217.1
221.2
231.9
199.3 131.0
202.8 134.5
205.6 138.5
204.2 141.8
46.3
47.7
50.3
51.5
44.4
45.6
48.1
49.2
84.8
86.7
88.2
90.4
78.6
79.8
81.3
83.4
68.2
68.3
67.0
62.4
66.4
66.6
65.2
60.4
.7
.5
.6
.7
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
12.4
14.3
15.6
27.7
10.1
11.0
11.0
24.0
1974: 1
II
III....
IV
218.4
212.7
207.6
210.3
203.5 145.9
203.4 146.6
203.1 148.1
199.8 151.1
53.4
54.1
54.0
56.1
51.1
51.8
51.7
53.7
92.5
92.4
94.1
95.0
85.6 57.6
85.0 56.9
86.6 55.0
86.7 48.7
55.3
54.6
52.7
46.3
1.0
.9
.9
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.3
14.9
9.3
4.4
10.4
14.1
11.0
7.6
13.7
1975: 1
II
ill
IV*___
168.7
161.4
194.9
208.3
193.5
191.1
197.1
208.4
54.9
51.1
51.2
53.4
52.6 94.4
48.8 95.0
49.0 95.6
51.3 99.3
86.7 44.2
87.2 45.0
88.6 50.4
91.2 55.7
42.6
43.1
48.2
53.5
.4
.5
.8
1.2 -24.8
1.3 -29.6
1.4 -2.1
1.4
-.2
-23.3
-29.6
-5.7
-5.7
149.3
146.1
146.7
152.7
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
181
-16.1
TABLE B-10.—Inventories and final sales of business in current and 1972 dollars, 1957-75
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; seasonally adjusted]
Inventories 1
Year and
Quarter
Final sales 2
Inventory-final
sales ratio
Nonfarm
Total
Farm
Total
nonfarm
Manufacturing
Wholesale
trade
Retail
trade
Total
SHtiar
utner
Nonfarm
Total
Nonfarm
Current dollars
Fourth
quarter:
1957...
1958...
1959...
126.7
128.9
132.3
20.9
24.9
23.6
105.8
103.9
108.7
57.9
56.0
57.5
16.9
16.9
18.0
24.0
24.1
25.3
6.9
6.9
8.0
392.7
405.0
426.7
374.2
383.2
406.2
0.323
.318
.310
0.283
.271
.268
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
136.2
138.4
145.2
151.5
157.6
172.7
189.1
202.2
215.3
236.2
24.8
25.0
26.6
26.9
25.7
29.7
28.9
29.2
30.4
33.4
111.3
113.4
118.6
124.6
131.8
143.0
160.2
173.0
184.9
202.8
58.1
59.5
62.5
64.8
68.5
73.7
83.4
91.1
97.4
107.1
18.4
19.0
19.7
21.2
22.3
24.0
27.2
29.2
30.9
33.8
26.8
26.3
27.9
29.4
31.1
34.4
38.0
39.2
42.2
45.9
8.1
8.7
8.6
9.2
9.9
10.9
11.6
13.5
14.4
16.1
442.1
465.3
492.7
524.2
553.1
610.7
647.5
688.0
757.6
804.5
422.2
443.5
471.1
499.6
534.9
586.6
622.6
666.4
736.0
783.9
.308
.297
.295
.289
.285
.283
.292
.294
.284
.294
.264
.256
.252
.249
.246
.244
.257
.260
.251
.259
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973 ...
1974...
1975 P..
244.2
261.9
288.6
353.6
422.3
428.7
31.7
36.8
44.6
64.1
57.6
63.8
212.5
225.1
243.9
289.5
364.8
364.9
110.8
113.6
120.4
143.7
188.6
189.0
36.8
39.4
43.6
52.8
66.3
65.8
47.1
52.9
58.0
67.0
76.5
76.5
17.7
19.2
21.8
26.0
33.4
33.6
839.4
915.2
,019.9
,119.6
,202.7
,328.9
814.2
888.6
982.8
1,068.3
1,148.0
1,283.2
.291
.286
.283
.316
.351
.323
.261
.253
.248
.271
.318
.284
1974: 1
II....
III...
IV....
371.7
387.7
413.9
422.3
63.2
57.2
61.0
57.6
308.5
330.5
353.0
364.8
154.9
168.3
181.6
188.6
57.0
60.7
64.6
66.3
68.4
70.8
74.6
76.5
28.2
30.6
32.2
33.4
,139.4
, 166. 5
,198.7
,202.7
1,090.9
1,121.6
1,148.0
1,148.0
.326
.332
.345
.351
.283
.295
.307
.318
1975: 1
II....
III...
IV*_.
412.6
413.1
423.7
428.7
54.7
60.3
64.1
63.8
357.9
352.8
359.7
364.9
186.6
183.6
186.1
189.0
65.1
63.8
65.1
65.8
73.3
72.4
75.3
76.5
32.9
33.0
33.1
33.6
,230.4
,257.0
1,291.4
1,328.9
1,186.2
1,220.8
1,243.2
1,283.2
.335
.329
.328
.323
.302
.289
.289
.284
9.8
9.8
537.5
545.7
566.3
0.288
.279
.280
0.244
.235
.238
1972 dollars
Fourth
quarter:
1957...
1958...
1959...
162.6
160.8
167.2
31.4
32.4
32.4
131.2
128.4
134.8
71.1
68.6
71.1
20.3
20.3
22.1
30.0
29.7
31.1
10.5
565.3
577.2
596.8
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963. _ .
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
171.6
174.5
182.6
190.4
197.7
209.0
225.7
237.7
246.4
257.0
32.8
33.2
34.5
35.7
35.1
36.2
36.0
36.8
37.0
37.3
138.8
141.2
148.1
154.7
162.6
172.8
189.7
200.9
209.4
219.7
72.4
74.2
78.4
80.8
84.7
89.1
99.0
105.9
110.7
115.8
22.7
23.4
24.3
26.2
27.5
28.9
32.0
33.9
34.9
36.5
33.0
32.2
34.0
35.7
37.6
41.0
44.4
44.8
47.0
49.4
10.7
11.4
11.4
12.0
12.8
13.8
14.3
16.3
16.8
18.0
609.0
636.6
664.2
699.3
730.7
791.3
809.2
837.2
882.8
892.2
580.8
606.4
633.7
663.7
703.3
759.3
777.4
807.8
855.3
869.1
.282
.274
.275
.272
.271
.264
.279
.284
.279
.288
.239
.233
.234
.233
.231
.228
.244
.249
.245
.253
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975 P..
261.3
267.9
277.4
293.4
301.1
291.1
37.7
39.2
39.8
42.2
41.4
42.7
223.6
228.8
237.6
251.2
259.7
248.4
117.1
115.4
117.5
123.6
129.5
124.9
38.7
40.1
42.4
45.0
48.1
44.9
49.0
53.7
56.5
60.3
59.2
56.4
18.8
19.5
21.3
22.4
22.9
22.2
891.7
935.0
1, 007. 6
1,030.8
992.5
1,026.6
859.9
905.0
973.7
1,000.5
956.8
996.0
.293
.287
.275
.285
.303
.284
.260
.253
.244
.251
.271
.249
1974:1
II
III....
IV....
296.5
298.2
299.3
301.1
42.4
42.2
41.8
41.4
254.2
256.1
257.5
259.7
125.5
126.4
127.8
129.5
46.4
47.6
47.7
48.1
59.7
59.5
59.1
59.2
22.6
22.7
22.8
22.9
1,027.3
1,026.3
1, 020. 6
992.5
1,002.0
995.3
986.2
956.8
.289
.291
.293
.303
.254
.257
.261
.271
1975:1
II....
III....
IVp__
296.4
291.2
291.0
291.1
41.2
41.1
41.8
42.7
255.2
250.1
249.3
248.4
128.8
126.4
125.1
124.9
47.2
45.8
45.6
44.9
56.6
55.5
56.4
56.4
22.6
22.3
22.1
22.2
991.1
1, 000. 1
1,012.0
1,026.6
957.5
974.9
980.5
996.0
.299
.291
.288
.284
.267
.257
.254
.249
* End of quarter.
Annual rates.
2
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis).
182
TABLE B-l 1.—Relation of gross national product and national income, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross
national
product
Year or quarter
Less:
Capital
consump- Equals:
tion allowNet
ances with national
capital
product
consumpion adjustment
Plus:
Subsidies
less
current
surplus
of government
enterprises
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
liability
Less:
Business Statistical
transfer
discrepancy
payments
Equals:
National
income
1946
1947
1948
1949
209.6
232.8
259.1
258.0
13.8
17 2
20.3
22.0
195.7
215.6
238.8
236.1
0.9
-2
-.1
-.3
17.1
18.4
20.1
21.3
0.5
.6
.7
.8
0.7
1.8
-1.2
1.0
178.3
194.6
219.0
212.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
286.2
330.2
347.2
366.1
366.3
23.9
27.6
29 6
31.6
33.1
262.3
302.6
317.6
334.5
333.2
.1
-.1
-.3
-.5
-.3
23.4
25.3
27.7
29.7
29.6
.8
.9
1.0
.2
.1
2.0
4.0
2.7
3.3
3.0
236.2
272.3
285.8
299.7
299.1
399.3
420.7
442.8
448.9
486.5
35.3
38 9
42.0
44.1
46 1
364.0
381.8
400.8
404.8
440.4
-.0
7
7
1.1
1
32.2
35.1
37.5
38.7
41.8
.2
4
.5
.6
8
2.5
-.8
1.7
-2
328.0
346.9
362.3
364.0
397.1
506.0
523.3
563.8
594.7
635.7
47.7
49 1
50.5
52.2
54 6
458.3
474.2
513.3
542.5
581.2
.4
17
1.8
1.1
17
45.4
48.0
51.6
54.6
58.8
2.0
2 0
2.1
2.4
2 7
-.7
16
4.0
3.7
22
412.0
424.2
457.4
482.8
519.2
688.1
753 0
796.3
868.5
935.5
57.5
61 7
67 0
73.8
82 5
630.6
691 3
729.3
794.7
853.1
1.6
25
16
1.3
18
62.6
65 3
70.2
78.8
86.4
2.8
30
31
3.4
38
.9
32
1.7
-.6
-3 3
566.0
622.2
655.8
714.4
767.9
..
982.4
063 4
,171.1
, 306. 3
406.9
90.8
98 8
105 4
117.1
134 0
891.6
964 7
1, 065. 8
1, 189. 3
1 272.9
2.7
2 4
36
3.7
7
94.0
103 4
111.0
120.2
127.3
4.0
42
47
5.2
58
-2.1
13
1.7
.4
—.6
798.4
858.1
951.9
1, 067. 3
1, 141. 1
, 499. 0
152.5
1,346.4
1.9
137.2
63
-4.6
1,209.5
. ..
, 265. 0
, 287. 8
, 319. 7
, 352. 7
111.0
115.3
118.3
123.7
1, 154. 1
1, 172. 5
1,201.4
1, 229. 1
31
4.5
4.0
3.3
117.9
119.9
121.1
121.9
50
51
5.2
5.4
3.2
-.9
1.0
-1.8
1, 031. 2
1, 052. 9
1, 078. 1
1, 106. 8
370. 9
, 391. 0
, 424. 4
, 441. 3
126.9
131.1
136.1
142.1
1, 244. 0
1, 259. 9
1. 288. 3
1, 299. 3
10
.5
.9
.4
123.3
126.6
129.6
129.5
56
5.8
5.9
60
-6 2
-1.6
2.4
2.9
1,122.3
1, 129. 6
1,151.3
1,161.3
, 433. 6
, 460. 6
528. 5
1,573.2
145.4
149.5
154.7
160.5
1, 288. 2
1,311.1
1 373 8
1,412.7
1.6
2.2
19
19
131.6
135.2
140 0
141 8
6.2
6.3
64
65
-3.2
-8.9
-3 2
1,155.2
1, 180. 8
1 232.5
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
..
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
.
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975 9
1973: |
II
Ill
IV
.
1974- 1
II
Ill
IV
1975: 1
II
Ill
IV P
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
183
TABLE B-12.—National income by type of income, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rate]
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments
Compensation of
employees
Farm
National
income 1
Year or
quarter
Total
SuppleWages ments
and
to
sala- wages
and
ries
sala-2
ries
Nonfarm
Total
Income 3
Capital
consumption
adjustment
Total
In-
Total
come 4
Inven- Capital
tory
convalua- sumption
tion
adadjustjustment ment
1946
1947
1948
1949
178.3 118.1
194.6 129.2
219.0 141.4
212.7 141.3
112.0
123.1
135.5
134.7
6.0
6.1
5.9
6.6
36.6
35.8
40.7
36.1
14.9
15.2
17.5
12.7
15.1
15.6
18.1
13.4
-0.2
-.4
-.6
-.7
21.6
20.6
23.2
23.5
23.3
21.8
23.1
22.2
-1.7
-1.5
-.4
.5
0.0
1950 ..
1951
1952
1953
1954.
236.2 154.8
272.3 181.0
285.8 195.7
299.7 209.6
299.1 208.4
147.0
171.3
185.3
198.5
196.8
7.8
9.7
10.4
11.0
11.6
38.4
42.8
42.9
41.3
40.8
13.5
15.8
14.9
12.9
12.3
14.1
16.6
15.7
13.7
12.9
-.7
-.8
-.8
-.7
-.6
24.9
27.0
28.0
28.4
28.5
25.1
26.4
26.9
27.6
27.6
-1.1
-.3
.2
-.2
-.0
.9
.9
.9
.9
1.0
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
328.0
346.9
362.3
364.0
397.1
224.9
243.5
256.5
258.2
279.6
211.7
228.3
239.3
240.5
258.9
13.2
15.2
17.2
17.7
20.6
42.5
43.6
45.0
47.4
47.2
11.3
11.2
11.0
13.1
10.7
11.9
11.8
11.8
13.9
11.6
-.6
-.6
-.8
-.8
-.9
31.2
32.4
33.9
34.3
36.6
30.5
31.8
33.1
33.2
35.3
-.2
-.5
-.3
-.1
-.1
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.3
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
412.0
424.2
457.4
482.8
519.2
294.9 271.9
303.6 279.5
325.1 298.0
342.9 313.4
368.0 336.1
23.0
24.1
27.1
29.5
31.8
47.0
48.3
49.6
50.3
52.2
11.4
11.8
11.9
11.6
10.3
12.3
12.7
12.8
12.5
11.2
-.9
-.9
-1.0
-.9
-1.0
35.6
36.4
37.7
38.7
42.0
34.2
35.3
36.4
37.2
40.2
.1
-.1
-.0
-.0
-.0
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1965
1966
1967 . . . .
1968
1969
566.0 396.5 362.0
622.2 439.3 398.4
655.8 471.9 427.5
714.4 519.8 469.5
767.9 571.4 514.6
34.5
40.9
44.4
50.3
56.8
56.7
60.3
61.0
63.4
66.2
12.6
13.6
12.1
12.0
13.9
13.5
14.6
13.2
13.3
15.4
-.9
-1.0
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
44.1
46.7
48.9
51.4
52.3
42.7
45.3
47.5
50.4
51.3
-.2
-.3
-.3
-.4
-.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.4
609.2 546.5
650.3 580.0
715.1 633.8
797.7 700.9
873.0 763.1
62.7
70.3
81.4
96.8
110.0
65.1
67.7
76.1
91.7
85.1
13.9
14.3
18.0
32.4
25.6
15.3
16.0
20.0
35.1
29.3
-1.4
-1.7
-2.0
-2.6
-3.7
51.2
53.4
58.1
59.3
59.5
50.7
52.8
56.4
58.9
62.0
-.5
-.4
-4.1
1.0
1.1
2.5
2.3
1.6
1975 P
1, 209. 5 921.4 801.6
119.8
83.3
24.6
28.9
-4.3
58.7
60.0
-1.3
.0
1973: 1
II
Ill
IV....
1,031.2
1, 052. 9
1,078.1
1, 106. 8
769.7
787.8
805.4
828.0
676.5
692.5
707.6
727.1
93.2
95.3
97.8
101.0
85.9
90.1
95.0
96.0
26.5
31.2
35.2
36.8
28.7
33.7
38.0
39.9
-2.2
-2.4
-2.7
-3.1
59.4
58.9
59.3
59.3
58.6
58.9
59.0
58.9
-1.8
-2.3
-1.5
-1.7
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.1
1974: 1
II....
III....
IV....
1, 122. 3
1,129.6
1, 151. 3
1,161.3
843.9 738.7
863.9 755.6
886.3 774.3
898.1 783.6
105.2
108.3
112.0
114.4
93.0
81.8
82.1
83.6
33.7
22.3
21.9
24.6
37.1
25.9
25.7
28.6
-3.4
-3.6
-3.8
-4.0
59.3
59.5
60.2
59.0
60.3
60.9
64.5
62.5
-2.9
-3.3
-5.8
-4.6
1.9
1.8
1.5
1.1
1975: 1
II....
III....
IV v
1,155.2
1,180.8
1, 232. 5
897.1 781.0 116.1
905.4 787.6 117.8
928.2 807.3 120.9
954.9 830.5 124.4
79.6
78.6
88.0
87.0
21.0
20.1
29.3
28.2
25.1
24.3
33.6
32.6
-4.1
-4.2
-4.3
-4.4
58.6
58.5
58.7
58.8
59.1
59.1
60.4
61.3
-1.3
-.9
-1.5
-1.7
.8
.3
1970
1971
1972 .
1973
1974
..
..
798.4
858.1
951.9
1, 067. 3
1, 141. 1
See footnotes at end of table.
184
^LS
'.B
-'.8
TABLE B-12 —National income by type of income, 1946—75—Continued
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Rental income of persons with capital
consumption
adjustment
Year or
quarter
Capital
Rental conincome sumpof
tion
Total
persons adjustment
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments
Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without
capital consumption adjustment
Total
Capital Net
con- intersump- est
Inven- tion
tory adjustProfits after tax
valua- ment
tion
Tax
Total
Undis- adjustliability
Total Divi- tributed ment
dends profits
Profits before tax
Total
1946
1947
1948
1949
5.5
5.3
5.7
6.1
7.3
7.7
8.5
8.9
-1.8
-2.5
-2.8
-2.8
16.6
22.2
29.1
26.9
19.3
25.6
33.0
30.8
24.6
31.5
35.2
28.9
9.1
11.3
12.4
10.2
15.5
20.2
22.7
18.7
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2
9.9
13.9
15.7
11.5
-5.3
-5.9
-2.2
1.9
-2.7
-3.4
-3.9
-3.8
1.6
2.1
2.1
2.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
7.1
7.7
8.8
10.0
11.0
10.0
11.0
12.2
13.4
14.4
-2.9
-3.3
-3.4
-3.4
-3.3
33.7
38.1
35.4
35.5
34.6
37.6
42.7
39.8
39.5
37.8
42.6
43.9
38.9
40.5
38.1
17.9
22.6
19.4
20.3
17.6
24.7
21.3
19.5
20.2
20.5
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.1
15.9
12.8
11.0
11.5
11.4
-5.0
-1.2
1.0
-1.0
-.3
-4.0
-4.6
-4.5
-4.1
-3.2
2.3
2.7
3.0
3.4
4.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
11.3
11.6
12.2
12.9
13.2
14.8
15.2
15.9
16.7
17.3
-3.5
-3.6
-3.6
-3.8
-4.0
44.6
42.9
42.1
37.5
48.2
46.7
45.9
45.4
40.8
51.2
48.4
48.6
46.9
41.1
51.6
22.0
22.0
21.4
19.0
23.6
26.4
26.6
25.5
22.1
28.0
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.3
12.2
16.1
15.5
14.0
10.8
15.8
-1.7 -2.1
-2.7 -3.0
-1.5 -3.3
-.3 -3.4
-.5 -2.9
4.8
5.2
6.5
8.0
8.8
1960 .. .
1961
1962
1963
1964
13.8
14.3
15.0
15.7
16.1
17.8
18.3
19.0
19.6
20.1
-4.1
-4.0
-4.0
-3.9
-4.0
46.6
46.9
54.9
59.6
67.0
48.9
48.7
53.7
57.6
64.2
48.5
48.6
53.6
57.7
64.7
22.7
22.8
24.0
26.2
28.0
25.8
25.8
29.6
31.5
36.7
12.9
13.3
14.4
15.5
17.3
13.0
12.5
15.2
16.0
19.4
.3
.1
.1
-.2
-.5
-2.3
-1.8
1.2
2.1
2.8
9.8
11.2
12.8
14.3
15.9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
17.1
18.2
19.4
18.6
18.1
21.0
22.1
23.4
23.8
24.8
-3.9
-3.9
-4.0
-5.2
-6.7
77.1
82.5
79.3
85.8
81.4
73.3
78.6
75.6
82.1
77.9
75.2
80.7
77.3
85.6
83.4
30.9
33.7
32.5
39.4
39.7
44.3
47.1
44.9
46.2
43.8
19.1
19.4
20.1
21.9
22.6
25.2
27.6
24.7
24.2
21.2
-1.9
-2.1
-1.7
-3.4
-5.5
3.8
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.5
18.5
21.9
24.3
26.8
30.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
18.6
20.1
21.5
21.3
21.0
25.8 -7.1 67.9
27.7 -7.6
77.2
29.4 -7.9
92.1
31.1 -9.8 100.2
32.9 -11.9
91.3
66.4
76.9
89.6
98.6
93.6
71.5
82.0
96.2
117.0
132.1
34.5
37.7
41.5
48.2
52.6
37.0
44.3
54.6
68.8
79.5
22.9
23.0
24.6
27.8
31.1
14.1 -5.1
21.3 -5.0
30.0 -6.6
40.9 -18.4
48.4 -38.5
1.5
.3
2.5
1.6
-2.3
37.5
42.8
47.0
56.3
70.7
1975 P
21.1
35.0 -13.9
102.1
108.3
119.8
47.0
72.8
32.8
40.0 -11.5
-6.2
81.6
1973:1-..II...
III...
IV...
21.8
21.2
21.3
21.1
30.3 -8.5
30.5 -9.3
31.5 -10.2
32.1 -11.0
101.9
99.6
98.9
100.4
99.4
97.4
97.9
99.6
115.2
117.9
115.8
119.1
47.8
48.8
47.8
48.6
67.5
69.1
68.0
70.5
26.4
27.2
28.1
29.5
41.0
41.9
39.9
41.0
-15.8
-20.6
-17.9
-19.5
2.5
2.2
1.0
.7
51.9
54.3
57.6
61.3
....
1974:1.... 21.1
II... 21.0
III. . 20.9
IV... 20.9
32.6
32.7
33.0
33.2
-11.5
-11.8
-12.0
-12.3
99.6
94.3
89.2
82.0
100.3
96.0
92.0
86.1
128.3
129.6
146.7
123.9
49.4
52.6
59.3
49.2
78.9
77.1
87.4
74.7
30.0
30.9
31.7
31.7
48.9
46.2
55.7
43.0
-28.0
-33.7
-54.7
-37.7
-.7
-1.7
-2.7
-4.2
64.8
68.7
72.7
76.7
1975: ! _ _ _ _ 20.8
II... 20.5
III. . 20.9
IV P . 22.0
33.9
34.6
35.1
-36.3
-13.1
78.9
-14.1
96.6
-14.2 113.1
-14.3
83.4
101.6
119.6
97.1
108.2
129.5
37.5
41.6
50.7
59.6
66.6
78.8
32.1
32.6
33.5
33.1
27.5 -13.7
34.0 -6.6
45.3 -9.9
-15.8
-4.5
-5.0
-6.5
-8.6
78.7
79.7
82.2
85.7
1 National income is the total net income earned in production. It differs from gross national product mainly in that it
excludes depreciation charges and other allowances for business and institutional consumption of durable capital goods,
and indirect business taxes. See Table B-ll.
2
Employer contributions for social insurance and to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for
injuries; directors' fees; pay of the military reserve; and a few other minor items.
3 With inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment.
4
Without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
185
TABLE B—13.—Relation of national income and personal income, 1946—75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
PI i s:
Le 5s:
Corporate
profits
with
inven-
Net
National
income valuation interest
and
capital
consumption
adjustments
Year or
quarter
Contributions
for
social
insurance
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements
Government
transfer
payments
to
persons
Personal
interest
income
Equals:
Dividends
Business
transfer Personal
payincome
ments
178.3
194.6
219.0
212.7
16.6
22.2
29.1
26.9
1.6
2.1
2.1
2.2
6.1
5.8
5.4
5.9
-0.0
.0
.0
-.0
10.8
11.2
10.6
11.7
6.4
7.3
7.7
8.2
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2
0.5
.6
.7
.8
177.3
189.8
208.5
205.6
236.2
272.3
285.8
299.7
299.1
33.7
38.1
35.4
35.5
34.6
2.3
2.7
3.0
3.4
4.3
7.1
8.5
9.0
9.1
10.1
.0
.1
-.0
-.1
.0
14.4
11.6
12.1
12.9
15.1
8.9
9.6
10.3
11.4
12.7
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.1
.8
.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
226.1
253.7
270.4
286.1
288.2
328.0
346.9
362.3
364.0
397.1
44.6
42.9
42.1
37.5
48.2
4.8
5.2
6.5
8.0
8.8
11.5
12.9
14.9
15.2
18.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
16.2
17.3
20.1
24.3
25.2
13.8
15.3
17.4
18.8
20.9
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.3
12.2
.2
.4
.5
.6
.8
308.8
330.9
349.3
359.3
382.1
412.0
424.2
457.4
482.8
519.2
46.6
46.9
54.9
59.6
67.0
9.8
11.2
12.8
14.3
15.9
21.1
21.9
24.3
27.3
28.7
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
27.0
30.8
31.6
33.4
34.8
23.3
24.6
27.1
30.2
33.3
12.9
13.3
14.4
15.5
17.3
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.7
399.7
415.0
440.7
463.1
495.7
566.0
622.2
655.8
714.4
767.9
77.1
82.5
79.3
85.8
81.4
18.5
21.9
24.3
26.8
30.8
30.0
38.8
43.4
48.1
54.9
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
37.6
41.6
49.5
56.5
62.7
37.2
41.8
45.0
49.6
55.9
19.1
19.4
20.1
21.9
22.6
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.8
537.0
584.9
626.6
685.2
745.8
1970.. .. 798.4
858.1
1971
1972 ... 951.9
1, 067. 3
1973
1, 141. 1
1974
67.9
77.2
92.1
100.2
91.3
37.5
42.8
47.0
56.3
70.7
58.7
64.8
73.6
91.5
102.9
.0
.6
.0
-.1
-.5
75.9
89.9
99.4
113.5
134.5
64.3
69.3
74.6
88.4
106.5
22.9
23.0
24.6
27.8
31.1
4.0
4.2
4.7
5.2
5.8
801.3
859.1
942.5
1, 054. 3
1,154.7
1,209.5
102.1
81.6
108.3
.0
168.7
120.7
32.8
6.3
1,246.0
1973: 1... 1,031.2
II... 1,052.9
III.. 1, 078. 1
IV.. 1,106.8
101.9
99.6
98.9
100.4
51.9
54.3
57.6
61.3
88.8
90.5
92.4
94.2
.0
-.3
.0
.0
110.0
111.9
114.5
117.5
81.7
85.9
90.7
95.4
26.4
27.2
28.1
29.5
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.4
,011.6
,039.0
,067.8
,098.8
1,122.3
1,129.6
1,151.3
1,161.3
99.6
94.3
89.2
82.0
64.8
68.7
72.7
76.7
100.2
101.9
104.4
105.0
.0
-.6
-1.5
.0
123.5
130.7
138.4
145.5
99.0
104.0
109.1
114.0
30.0
30.9
31.7
31.7
5.6
5.8
5.9
6.0
,115.9
,136.6
,171.6
,194.8
1975: 1... 1, 155. 2
II... 1, 180. 8
III.. 1, 232. 5
IV P.
78.9
96.6
113.1
78.7
79.7
82.2
85.7
106.0
106.6
108.9
111.7
.0
.0
.0
.0
157.7
169.4
172.4
175.2
116.0
117.6
121.2
127.8
32.1
32.6
33.5
33.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
1,203.6
1,223.8
1,261.7
1,294.8
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
. .
. ..
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 .
1962
1963
1964
.
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1975*
1974: 1...
II...
III..
IV..
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
186
TABLE B—14.—Disposition of personal income, 1946—75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates, except as noted]
Percent of disposable
personal income
Less: Personal outlays
Less:
Personal
tax
and
nontax
payments
Equals:
Disposable
personal
income
177.3
189.8
208.5
205.6
18.7
21.4
21.0
18.5
158.6
168.4
187.4
187.1
145.2
163.5
176.9
180.4
143.8
161.7
174.7
178.1
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.7
0.7
.7
.7
.5
13.4
4.9
10.6
6.7
91.5
97.1
94.3
96.4
90.6
96.1
93.2
95.2
8.5
2.9
5.7
3.6
226.1
253.7
270.4
286.1
288.2
20.6
28.9
34.0
35.5
32.5
205.5
224.8
236.4
250.7
255.7
194.7
210.0
220.4
233.7
240.1
192.0
207.1
217.1
229.7
235.8
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.6
3.8
.4
.4
.4
.5
.5
10.8
14.8
16.0
17.0
15.6
94.7
93.4
93.2
93.2
93.9
93.4
92.1
91.8
91.6
92.2
5.3
6.6
6.8
6.8
6.1
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
308.8
330.9
349.3
359.3
382.1
35.4
39.7
42.4
42.1
46.0
273.4
291.3
306.9
317.1
336.1
258.5
271.6
286.4
295.4
317.3
253.7
266.0
280.4
289.5
310.8
4.4
5.1
5.5
5.6
6.1
.4
.5
.5
.4
.4
14.9
19.7
20.6
21.7
18.8
94.6
93.2
93.3
93.2
94.4
92.8
91.3
91.4
91.3
92.5
5.4
6.8
6.7
6.8
5.6
1960
1961 .
1962
1963
1964 .
399.7
415.0
440.7
463.1
495.7
50.4
52.1
56.8
60.3
58.6
349.4
362.9
383.9
402.8
437.0
332.3
342.7
363.5
384.0
410.9
324.9
335.0
355.2
374.6
400.4
7.0
7.3
7.8
8.8
9.9
.4
.4
.5
.6
.6
17.1
20.2
20.4
18.8
26.1
95.1
94.4
94.7
95.3
94.0
93.0
92.3
92.5
93.0
91.6
4.9
5.6
5.3
4.7
6.0
1965 ._
1966
1967
1968
1969
537.0
584.9
626.6
685.2
745.8
64.9
74.5
82.1
97.1
115.4
472.2
510.4
544.5
588.1
630.4
441.9
477.4
503.7
550.1
595.3
430.2
464.8
490.4
535.9
579.7
11.1
12.0
12.5
13.3
14.7
.7
.6
.9
.8
.9
30.3
33.0
40.9
38.1
35.1
93.6
93.5
92.5
93.5
94.4
91.1
91.1
90.0
91.1
92.0
6.4
6.5
7.5
6.5
5.6
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974.
801.3
859.1
942.5
1, 054. 3
1,154.7
115.3
116.3
141.2
151.2
171.2
685.9
742.8
801.3
903.1
983.6
635.4
685.5
751.9
830.4
909.5
618.8
668.2
733.0
808.5
885. 9.
15.5
16.2
17.9
20.6
22.6
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.0
50.6
57.3
49.4
72.7
74.0
92.6
92.3
93.8
92.0
92.5
90.2
90.0
91.5
89.5
90.1
7.4
7.7
6.2
8.0
7.5
1975 r
1,246.0
169.2 1,076.8
Year or
quarter
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
..
.
Personal
income
Total
PerPerInterest sonal
sonal
paid by transfer
conconpaysump- sumers ments
tion
to
to
forexpend- busieigners
itures
ness
(net)
Equals:
Personal
saving
Personal
outlays
Total
Consumption
expenditures
Personal
saving
987.2
963.2
23.1
1.0
89.6
91.7
89.5
8.3
1973: 1
II...
III...
IV...
,011.6
, 039. 0
, 067. 8
, 098. 8
145.0
147.3
153.7
158.9
866.6
891.7
914.1
939.9
806.1
821.8
840.3
853.4
785.7
800.5
818.4
829.5
19.5
20.3
21.0
21.7
.9
.9
.9
2.2
60.4
70.0
73.8
86.5
93.0
92.2
91.9
90.8
90.7
89.8
89.5
88.3
7.0
7.8
8.1
9.2
1974: L...
II...
III...
IV...
,115.9
,136.6
,171.6
, 194. 8
162.1
953.8
168.4
968.2
175.3
996.3
178.9 1,015.9
872.6
901.4
931.7
932.4
849.5
877.8
907.7
908.4
22.1
22.5
22.9
23.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
81.2
66.8
64.6
83.6
91.5
93.1
93.5
91.8
89.1
90.7
91.1
89.4
8.5
6.9
6.5
8.2
L...
II.. .
III...
IV*._
, 203. 6
, 223. 8
, 261. 7
,294.8
179.6
142.1
174.6
180.4
950.4
1, 024. 0
1,081.7
974.2
1,087.1 1,001.3
1,114.4 1,023.1
926.4
950.3
977.4
998.7
23.0
22. 8
23.0
23.5
1.0
1.1
.9
1.0
73.6
107.5
85.9
91.3
92.8
90.1
92.1
91.8
90.5
87.9
89.9
89.6
7.2
9.9
7.9
8.2
1975:
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
187
TABLE B-15.—Sources of personal income, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Wage and salary disbursements 1
Personal
income
Year or quarter
Total
Commodityproducing
industries
Total
Manufacturing
GovernDistrib- Service ment
and
utive
governindus- industries
ment
tries
enterprises
Other
labor
income'
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
Farm
Nonfarm
177.3
189.8
208.5
205.6
112.0
123.1
135. 5
134.8
46.0
54.2
60.9
57.7
36.5
42.5
47.1
44.6
31.0
35.2
37.5
37.7
14.3
16.1
18.0
18.6
20.7
17.5
19.0
20.8
2.0
2.4
2.7
2.9
14.9
15.2
17.5
12.7
21.6
20.6
23.2
23.5
226.1
253.7
270.4
286.1
288.2
147.0
171.3
185.4
198.6
196.8
64.6
76.1
81.9
89.4
85.5
50.3
59.3
64.1
71.2
67.5
39.8
44.3
46.9
49.7
50.1
20.0
21.7
23.3
25.0
26.3
22.6
29.2
33.3
34.4
34.9
3.7
4.6
5.2
5.9
6.1
13.5
15.8
14.9
12.9
12.3
24.9
27.0
28.0
28.4
28.5
308.8
330.9
349.3
359.3
382.1
211.7
228.3
239.3
240.5
258.9
92.9
100.4
104.0
99.8
109.3
73.8
79.4
82.4
78.6
86.8
53.4
57.7
60.5
60.8
64.8
28.8
31.5
33.8
35.8
38.8
36.6
38.8
41.0
44.1
46.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
9.4
10.6
11.3
11.2
11.0
13.1
10.7
31.2
32.4
33.9
34.3
36.6
399.7
415.0
440.7
463.1
495.7
271.9
279.5
298.0
313.4
336.1
112.9
113.4
121.5
126.6
135.1
89.7
89.8
96.7
100.6
107.1
68.2
69.3
72.8
76.3
81.4
41.7
44.4
47.5
50.6
54.7
49.2
52.4
56.3
60.0
64.9
11.2
11.8
13.0
14.0
15.7
11.4
11.8
11.9
11.6
10.3
35.6
36.4
37.7
38.7
42.0
537.0
584.9
626.6
685.2
745.8
362.0
398.4
427.5
469.5
514.6
145.7
160.7
168.0
183.0
199.1
115.5
128.0
134.1
145.8
157.5
87.2
94.4
100.9
109.9
120.7
59.2
65.0
72.2
80.2
89.9
69.9
78.3
86.4
96.4
104.9
17.8
19.9
21.7
25.1
28.2
12.6
13.6
12.1
12.0
13.9
44.1
46.7
48.9
51.4
52.3
1970
1971
1972 . ....
1973
...
1974
801.3
859.1
942.5
1, 054. 3
1,154.7
546.5
579.4
633.8
701.0
763.6
202.5
207.8
226.7
253.4
273.7
158.2
160.3
175.4
196.2
211.2
130.1
139.3
151.9
168.1
184.3
97.9
106.8
117.9
130.8
145.0
116.0
125.6
137.3
148.6
160.6
32.0
36.2
42.0
47.5
54.5
13.9
14.3
18.0
32.4
25.6
51.2
53.4
58.1
59.3
59.5
1975 P
1,246.0
801.6
273.5
211.1
195.1
158.6
174.4
61.3
24.6
58.7
1973: 1
II
III
IV
1,011.6
1,039.0
1, 067. 8
1, 098. 8
676.5
692.8
707.6
727.1
243.8
250.0
256.0
263.9
189.1
193.9
197.7
204.0
161.9
166.2
169.8
174.7
125.9
129.4
132.4
135.4
144.8
147.1
149.4
153.1
45.6
46.7
48.1
49.8
26.5
31.2
35.2
36.8
59.4
58.9
59.7
59.3
1974: 1.
II
III
IV
1,115.9
1,136.6
1,171.6
1,194.8
738.7
756.2
775.9
783.6
265.8
271.9
279.2
277.7
204.7
209.6
215.7
214.9
177.6
182.7
187.0
189.9
139.7
142.9
147.4
150.1
155.6
158.6
162.3
165.9
51.4
53.4
55.5
57.6
33.7
22.3
21.9
24.6
59.3
59.5
60.2
59.0
1975: 1
II
III
IV P
1,203.6
1,223.8
1,261.7
1,294.8
781.0
787.6
807.3
830.5
267.9
267.2
275.3
283.7
205.5
205.9
212.9
220.3
190.3
191.8
196.6
201.8
153.5
156.0
160.0
164.8
169.3
172.6
175.4
180.2
59.0
60.3
62.0
63.8
21.0
20.1
29.3
28.2
58.6
58.5
58.7
58.8
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
....
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 .
1965
1966 .
1967
1968
1969
---
.
...
....
See footnotes at end of table.
188
TABLE B—15.—Sources of personal income, 1946—75—Continued
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Rental
income
of persons
with
Year or capital Divi- Personal
quarter con- dends interest
income
sumption adjustment
Transfer payments
Total
Old age, Government
survivors, unemVetdisability,
erans
ployand health ment
benein- fits
insurance surance
benefits benefits
Government
employee
retirement
benefits
Less:
Personal Noncontrifarm
Aid to
butions
perfamilies
for
sonal
with de- Other social
inpendent
insurcome 2
children
ance
(AFDC)
1946....
1947....
1948....
1949....
5.5
5.3
5.7
6.1
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2
6.4
7.3
7.7
8.2
11.3
11.7
11.3
12.5
0.4
.5
.6
.7
1.1
.8
.9
1.9
7.0
7.0
5.9
5.3
0.7
.7
.7
.9
2.1
.3
.4
.5
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
159.6
171 5
187.7
189.9
1950....
1951....
1952....
1953....
1954....
7.1
7.7
8.8
8.9
9.6
10.0
11.0
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.8
9.1
10.3
11.4
12.7
15.2
12.6
13.1
14.1
16.2
1.0
1.9
2.2
3.0
3.6
1.5
.9
1.1
1.0
2.2
7.7
4.6
4.3
4.1
4.2
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
.6
.6
.5
.5
.6
3.5
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.1
2.9
3.4
3.8
4.0
4.6
209 3
234.4
252 0
269.9
272.7
1955....
1956....
1957....
1958... .
1959....
11.3
11.6
12.2
12.9
13.2
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.3
12.2
13.8
15.3
17.4
18.8
20.9
17.5
18.7
21.6
25.9
27.0
4.9
5.7
7.3
8.5
10.2
1.5
1.5
1.9
4.1
2.8
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.6
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.8
.6
.6
.7
.8
.9
4.3
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.8
5.2
5.8
6.7
6.9
7.9
294 3
316.4
335.0
342.6
367.7
I960....
1961....
1962... .
1963. —
1964,...
13.8
14.3
15.0
15.7
16.1
12.9
13.3
14.4
15.5
17.3
23.3
24.6
27.1
30.2
33.3
28.9
32.8
33.8
35.8
37.4
11.1
12.6
14.3
15.2
16.0
3.0
4.3
3.1
3.0
2.7
4.6
5.0
4.7
4.8
4.7
3.1
3.4
3.7
4.2
4.7
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.5
6.2
6.4
6.7
7.3
7.8
10.3
11.8
12.6
9.3
9.7
384.4
399.0
424.5
447.0
480.7
1965....
1966....
1967....
1968....
1969....
17.1
18.2
19.4
18.6
18.1
19.1
19.4
20.1
21.9
22.6
37.2
41.8
45.0
49.6
55.9
40.4
44.7
52.6
59.9
66.5
18.1
19.8
25.5
30.2
32.9
2.3
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.2
4.9
4.9
5.6
5.9
6.7
5.2
6.1
6.9
7.7
8.6
1.7
1.9
2.3
2.8
3.5
10.2
10.2
11.1
12.5
8.3
13.3
17.8
20.6
22.8
26.3
519.5
566.1
609.1
667.5
725.8
1970....
1971....
1972....
1973....
1974....
18.6
20.1
21.5
21.3
21.0
22.9
23.0
24.6
27.8
31.1
64.3
69.3
74.6
88.4
106.5
79.9
94.1
104.1
118.6
140.4
38.5
44,5
49.6
60.4
70.1
4.0
5.8
5.6
4.3
6.6
7.7
8.8
9.7
10.4
11.7
10.1
11.7
13.5
15.6
18.5
4.8
6.2
6.9
7.2
7.9
14.9
17.2
18.9
20.8
25.5
28.0
30.8
34.2
42.2
47.4
780.7
838.0
917.3
1,013.5
1,119.1
1975'...
21.1
32.8
120.7
175.0
81.4
17.5
14.3
21.8
9.1
30.9
49.8
1,210.2
21.8
21.2
21.3
21.1
26.4
27.2
28.1
29.5
81.7
85.9
90.7
95.4
114.9
117.0
119.7
122.9
58.1
59.8
61.1
62.4
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.5
10.3
10.3
10.4
10.7
14 6
15.0
16.1
16.8
7 i
7.1
7.2
7.3
20 5
20! 6
20.7
21.3
41.2
41.9
42.7
43.1
977.0
999.6
1,024.2
1,053.0
IL.TI
III....
IV....
21.1
21.0
20.9
20.9
30.0
30.9
31.7
31.7
99.0
104.0
109.1
114.0
129.1
136.4
144.3
151.6
63.7
69.1
72.7
75.0
5.4
6.3
6.5
8.2
10.8
10.8
11.9
13.4
17.5
17.8
18.9
19.6
7.5
7.6
8.0
8.4
24.1
24.8
26.1
27.0
46.4
47.1
48.0
48.2
1,072.6
1, 104. 5
1,139.8
1, 159. 7
1975:
1
II
III....
IV P..
20.8
20.5
20.9
22.0
32.1
32.6
33.5
33.1
116.0
117.6
121.2
127.8
163.9
175.7
178.8
181.7
76.6
77.7
85.0
86.3
15.1
18.6
18.7
17.6
14.6
13.8
13.9
14.8
20.7
21.2
22.1
23.2
8.7
8.9
9.2
9.5
28.1
35.4
29.8
30.2
48.8
49.1
50.0
51.2
1,171.7
1,192.8
1,221.4
1,255.1
1973:
I
II....
III....
IV....
1974:
1
* The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees in Table
B-12 in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2 Nonfarm income is personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by farm corporations.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
189
597-578 O - 76 - 13
TABLE B-16.—Personal consumption expenditures, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondurable goods *
Durable goods *
Household
operation 1
•a
J
8
|
Personal consumption
expenditures
1
CL
Services *
I
1946
1947
1948
1949
43.8
61.7
7417
178.1
15.8
20.4
22.9
25.0
4.1
6.6
8.0
10.6
8.4
10.6
11.5
11.3
82.7
90.9
96.6
94.9
47.4
52.3
54.2
52.5
18.2
18.8
20.1
19.3
3.4
4.0
4.8
5.3
2.5
3.0
3.4
3.1
45.3
50.4
55.3
58.2
14.2
16.0
17.9
19.6
6.8
7.5
8.1
8.5
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.9
5.0
5.3
5.8
5.9
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
192.0
207 1
217 1
229.7
235.8
30.8
29.8
29.1
32.5
31.8
13.7
12.2
11.3
13.9
13.0
13.7
14.0
14.0
14.6
14.6
98.2
108.8
113.9
116.5
118.0
53.9
60.4
63.4
64.4
65.4
19.6
21.2
21.9
22.1
22.1
5.5
6.1
6.8
7.4
7.8
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.5
63.0
68.5
74.0
80.6
86.1
21.7
24.3
27.0
29.8
32.2
9.5
10.4
11.1
12.0
12.6
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.5
5.0
6.2
6.7
7.1
7.8
7.9
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
253.7
266.0
280.4
289.5
310.8
38.6
37.9
39.3
36.8
42.4
17.8
15.8
17.2
14.8
18.9
16.2
17.1
16.9
16.6
17.8
122.9
128.9
135.2
139.8
146.4
67.2
69.9
73.6
76.4
79.1
23.1
24.1
24.3
24.7
26.1
8.6
9.4
10.2
10.6
11.3
3.8 92.1
3.9 99.2
4.1 105.9
4.2 112.8
4.0 121.9
34.3
36.7
39.3
42.0
45.0
14.0
15.2
16.2
17.3
18.5
5.5
6.1
6.5
7.1
7.6
8.2
8.6
9.0
9.3
10.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
324.9
335.0
355.2
374.6
400.4
43.1
41.6
46.7
51.4
56.3
19.7
17.8
21.5
24.4
26.0
17.7
17.9
18.9
20.3
22.8
151.1
155.3
161.6
167.1
176.9
81.1
83.2
85.5
87.8
92.7
26.7
27.4
28.7
29.5
31.9
12.0
12.0
12.6
12.9
13.5
3.8
3.7
3.7
4.0
4.1
130.7
138.1
147.0
156.1
167.1
48.1
51.2
54.7
58.0
61.4
20.1
21.0
22.2
23.4
24.8
8.3
8.8
9.4
9.9
10.4
10.7
11.2
11.7
12.2
12.8
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
430.2
464.8
490.4
535.9
579.7
62.8
67.7
69.6
80.0
85.5
29.8
30.1
29.7
35.8
37.7
24.7
27.7
29.5
32.6
35.0
188.6
204.7
212.6
230.4
247.0
98.9
106.6
109.6
118.3
126.1
33.5
36.6
38.2
41.8
45.1
14.7
16.0
17.0
18.4
20.4
4.4
4.7
4.8
5.0
5.2
178.7
192.4
208.1
225.6
247.2
65.5
69.5
74.1
79.9
86.8
26.3
28.0
30.6
32.7
35.5
10.9
11.5
12.2
13.1
14.2
13.7
15.0
16.2
17.4
18.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
618.8 84.9
668.2 97.1
733.0 111.2
808.5 122.9
885.9 121.9
34.9
43.8
50.6
54.4
48.0
36.7
39.4
44.8
50.7
54.7
264.7
277.7
299.3
334.4
375.7
136.3
140.6
150.4
168.0
189.4
46.6
50.5
55.1
61.4
65.2
22.0
23.4
24.9
28.3
36.4
5.4
5.5
6.3
7.7
9.5
269.1
293.4
322.4
351.3
388.3
94.0
102.7
112.3
123.1
136.0
38.3
41.6
45.9
50.3
56.4
15.5
17.0
18.9
20.6
24.0
21.1
23.8
26.0
27.8
30.9
1975 J»
963.2 127.7
49.0
57.5 410.0 209.4
69.9
40.1
10.1 425.5 148.8
63.5
29.0
34.0
1973- 1
II
111
IV
785.7
800.5
818.4
829.5
124.8
124.4
123.7
118.9
58.2
56.4
54.4
48.4
49.3
50.4
51.2
51.9
321.4
328.0
339.6
348.5
161.2
164.3
171.4
175.2
60.1
60.9
61.9
62.8
26.7
27.4
28.5
30.6
7.0
7.5
7.9
8.4
339.5
348.2
355.2
362.2
118.9
121.9
124.7
126.8
48.2
49.8
51.4
51.9
19.7
20.3
21.3
21.0
27.2
27.6
28.0
28.5
1974- 1
II
III
IV
849.5
877.8
907.7
908.4
118.4
123.1
128.9
117.3
46.1
48.7
53.5
43.6
53.4
55.0
55.9
54.3
359.8
371.9
383.9
387.1
181.3
185.4
193.2
197.4
64.3
65.3
66.5
64.8
31.7
37.1
38.2
38.8
8.9
9.3
9.9
9.8
371.2
382.8
394.9
404.0
131.4
134.2
137.4
140.7
52.7
55.6
57.9
59.2
21.5
23.4
25.0
26.2
29.7
30.4
31.4
32.1
1975- 1
II
III
IV p....
926.4
950.3
977.4
998.7
118.9
123.8
131.8
136.1
44.6
46.1
52.1
53.2
54.1
57.0
58.3
60.6
394.1
404.8
416.4
424.8
202.8
206.6
211.4
216.9
66.7
69.0
71.3
72.6
38.1
39.6
41.2
41.6
9.4
10.1
11.1
10.0
413.4
421.6
429.2
437.7
143.9
147.0
150.2
154.0
60.6
63.1
64.7
65.5
27.3
28.9
29.8
30.1
33.0
33.5
34.2
35.1
Year
or
quarter
-a
5
1
•a
11 ii
1
£
5
00
c
lc
"o
O
2? £
J
If
-o>
u_
•a
* Total includes items not shown separately.
2 Includes imputed rental value of owner-occupied dwellings.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
190
'o
•a
c
TO
£
S
•a
c
DO
C
'o
<3
1
I
3
0
1C
1
•a
c
c
o
&
'o
1
c
UJ
H
1 i
TABLE B-17.—Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures in current and 1972 dollars, 1946-75
Disposable personal income
Total (billions
of dollars)
Year or quarter
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Personal consumption expenditures
Per capita
(dollars)
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Total (billions
of dollars)
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Per capita
(dollars)
Current
dollars
Population
(thousands)1
1972
dollars
1946
1947
1948
1949
158.6
168.4
187.4
187.1
332.4
318.8
335.5
336.1
1,122
1,168
1,278
1,254
2,351
2,212
2,288
2,253
143.8
161.7
174.7
178.1
301.4
306.2
312.8
320.0
,017
,122
,192
,194
2,131
2,124
2,133
2,145
141,389
144, 126
146, 631
149, 188
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
205.5
224.8
236.4
250.7
255.7
361.9
371.6
382.1
397.5
402.1
1,355
1,457
1,506
1,571
1,574
2,386
2,408
2,434
2,491
2,476
192.0
207.1
217.1
229.7
235.8
338.1
342.3
350.9
364.2
370.9
,266
,342
,383
,439
,452
2,229
2,219
2,236
2,283
2,284
151,684
154,287
156, 954
159, 565
162,391
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 .
273.4
291.3
306.9
317.1
336.1
425.9
444.9
453.9
459.0
477.4
1,654
1,731
1,792
1,821
1,898
2,577
2,645
2,650
2,636
2,696
253.7
266.0
280.4
289.5
310.8
395.1
406.3
414.7
419.0
441.5
,535
,581
,637
,662
,755
2,391
2,415
2,421
2,406
2,493
165,275
168,221
171, 274
174, 141
177,073
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
349.4
362.9
383.9
402.8
437.0
487.3
500.6
521.6
539.2
577.3
1,934
1,976
2,058
2,128
2,278
2,697
2,725
2,796
2,849
3,009
324.9
335.0
355.2
374.6
400.4
453.0
462.2
482.9
501.4
528.7
,798
,824
,904
,979
2,087
2,507
2,516
2,589
2,649
2,755
180, 671
183, 691
186, 538
189,242
191, 889
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
472.2
510.4
544.5
588.1
630.4
612.4
643.6
669.8
695.2
712.3
2,430
2,597
2,740
2,930
3,111
3,152
3,274
3,371
3,464
3,515
430.2
464.8
490.4
535.9
579.7
558.1
586.1
603.2
633.4
655.4
2,214
2,365
2,468
2,670
2,860
2,872
2,982
3,035
3,156
3,234
194,303
196, 560
198, 712
200, 706
202, 677
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
685.9
742.8
801.3
903.1
983.6
741.6
769.0
801.3
856.0
843.5
3,348
3,588
3,837
4,292
4,642
3,619
3,714
3,837
4,068
3,981
618.8
668.2
733.0
808.5
885.9
668.9
691.9
733.0
766.3
759.8
3,020
3,227
3,510
3,843
4,181
3,265
3,342
3,510
3,642
3,586
204, 878
207, 053
208, 846
210, 410
211, 894
1,076.8
857.0
5,040
4,012
963.2
766.6
4,509
3,588
213, 631
866.6
891.7
914.1
939.9
844.6
853.5
860.7
864.2
4,129
4,242
4,340
4,453
4,025
4,060
4,086
4,095
785.7
800.5
818.4
829.5
765.8
766.2
770.5
762.8
3,744
3,808
3,885
3,931
3,649
3,645
3,658
3,614
209, 857
210, 220
210, 636
211,040
1974: 1
II
Ill
953.8
968.2
996.3
1,015.9
853.3
841.8
842.0
837.6
4,513
4,574
4,697
4,779
4,037
3,976
3,969
3,940
849.5
877.8
907.7
908.4
760.0
763.2
767.2
748.9
4,019
4,147
4,279
4,273
3,596
3,605
3,617
3,523
211,362
211,699
212, 123
212, 585
1975: 1
1,024.0
1,081.7
1, 087. 1
1,114.4
831.6
869.8
858.2
868.4
4,808
5,070
5,083
5,199
3,905
4,077
4,012
4,052
926.4
950.3
977.4
998.7
752.3
764.1
771.6
778.2
4,350
4,454
4,569
4,659
3,533
3,581
3,607
3,631
212,962
213, 362
213, 897
214,339
1975 p
1973' 1
II
Ml
IV
IV
II
III
IV*
i Population of the United States including Armed Forces overseas; includes Alaska and Hawaii beginning 1960. Annual
data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
191
TABLE B-18.—Gross saving and investment, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross saving
Gross private saving
Year or
quarter
Total
Total
1946
1947
1948
1949
Gross
Perbusisonal
ness 1
saving saving
Gross investment
Government surplus or Capital
grants
deficit (— ), national
income and product received
accounts
by the
United
States
(net) 2
Fed- State
Total
and
eral
local
Total
Gross
private
domestic investment
Net
foreign
invest-3
ment
Statistical
discrepancy
34 6
41.2
49.0
34 8
29 2
26.8
40.6
38.2
13 4
4.9
10.6
6 7
15 8
21.8
30.0
31.4
5 4
14.4
8.4
-3 4
35
13.4
8.3
-2 6
19
1.0
.1
-.7
35.3
42.9
47.8
35.9
30.7
34.0
45.9
35.3
4.6
9.0
2.0
.6
0.7
1.8
-1.2
1.0
49.7
55.5
49.3
48.1
49.4
41.6
49.4
53.1
55.0
56.5
10.8
14.8
16.0
17.0
15.6
30.8
34.6
37.1
38.0
41.0
8.0
6.1
-3.8
-6.9
-7.1
9.2 -1.2
6.5 -.4
-3.7 -.0
.1
-7.1
-6.0 -1.1
51.7
59.5
51.9
51.4
52.4
53.8
59.2
52.1
53.3
52.7
-2.1
.3
2.0
4.0
2.7
3.3
3.0
65.6
73.6
72.6
60.4
75.8
62.4
68.4
71.7
73.0
77.3
14.9
19.7
20.6
21.7
18.8
47.5
3.1
48.7
5.2
51.1
.9
51.3 -12.6
58.5 -1.6
4.4 -1.3
6.1 -.9
2.3 -1.4
-10.3 -2.4
-1.1 -.4
68.0
72.8
72.8
62.0
75.5
68.4
71.0
69.2
61.9
77.6
-.3
1.8
3.6
-2'.0
l'.7
-.2
78.9
75.8
83.6
89.6
100.1
75.8
80.0
87.4
88.9
102.4
17.1
20.2
20.4
18.8
26.1
58.7
59.8
67.0
70.1
76.2
.1
-.4
.5
.5
1.0
78.2
77.3
87.6
93.4
102.3
76.4
74.3
85.2
90.2
96.6
1.7
3.0
2.4
3.2
5.7
-.7
1.6
4.0
3.7
2.2
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
115.4
122.9
120.3
130.8
147.5
114.9
124.2
134.6
136.3
136.8
30.3
33.0
40.9
38.1
35.1
84.6
.5
91.2 -1.3
93.7 -14.2
98.2 -5.5
101.7
10.7
.5 -.0
-1.8
.5
-13.2 -1.1
-5.8
.3
8.5
2.1
116.3
126.1
122.1
130.2
144.2
112.0
124.5
120.8
131.5
146.2
4.3
1.6
1.2
-1.4
-2.0
.9
3.2
1.7
-.6
-3.3
1970
1971.
1972
1973
1974.
143.4
155.4
177.5
219.8
210.1
151.9
173.0
180.4
213.8
215.7
50.6
57.3
49.4
72.7
74.0
101.4
-9.4
115.7 -18.3
131.0
-3.5
141.1
6.0
141.6
-3.6
-12.1
-22.0
-17.3
-6.9
-11.7
2.8
3.7
13.7
12.9
8.1
141.4
156.8
179.2
220.2
209.5
140.8
160.0
188.3
220.5
212.2
.5
-3.2
-9.0
-.3
-2.8
-2.1
1.3
1.7
.4
-.6
1975 P. _.
200.9
264.4
89.6
174.8
-73.4
10.0
.0
196.3
183.3
13.0
-4.6
1973: 1
II
III....
IV....
204.0
214.5
222.8
237.9
199.0
208.7
215.1
232.4
60.4
70.0
73.8
86.5
138.6
138.7
141.3
145.9
5.0
5.8
7.7
5.5
-10.9
-7.4
-4.8
-4.6
15.9
13.2
12.4
10.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
207.2
213.7
223.8
236.1
211.7
217.1
221.2
231.9
-4.5
-3.4
2.6
4.2
3.2
-.9
1.0
-1.8
1974: 1
II....
III....
IV....
224.3
209.1
199.9
207.1
228.3
208.8
198.8
226.7
81.2
66.8
64.6
83.6
147.1
4.0
142.0
.3
134.2
1.0
143.1 -19.6
-5.3
-7.9
-8.0
-25.5
9.4
8.2
9.1
5.9
-8.0
.0
.0
.0
218.1
207.5
202.2
210.0
218.4
212.7
207.6
210.3
-.3
-5.2
-5.3
-.2
-6.2
-1.6
2.4
2.9
1975: 1
180.3
II.... 185.9
III.... 211.9
IV P
228.3
279.3
269.5
73.6
107.5
85.9
91.3
-48.0 -53.7
-93.4 -102.2
-57.6 -70.5
5.7
8.8
12.9
.0
.0
.0
.0
177.1
177.0
208.7
222.3
168.7
161.4
194.9
208.3
8.4
15.6
13.7
14.1
-3.2
-8.9
-3.2
1950 .
1951
1952
1953 .
1954
.
1955
1956
1957
1958.
1959
1960...
1961
1962
1963
1964
.
.
154.7
171.8
183.6
3.1
-4.3
-3.8
-2'. 3
-63.5
3.0
-3.9
-4.2
.3
-3.3
0.9
'.1
.0
<-2.0
-^l'.9
2
2.5
-.8
1 Undistributed corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, corporate and noncorporate capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment, and private wage accruals less disbursements.
2
Allocations of special drawing rights (SDR).
s4 Net exports of goods and services less net transfers to foreigners and interest paid to foreigners.
In February 1974, the U.S. Government granted to India $2,015 million (quarterly rate) in rupees under provisions
of the Agricultural Trade Development and Adjustment Act. This transaction is being treated as capital grants paid to
foreigners, and is included in the first quarter of 1974 as —$8.0 (annual rate) in capital grants received by the United
States.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
192
TABLE B-19.—Saving by individuals, 1946-75 *
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Increase in financial assets
Year or
quarter
Total
1946
1947
1948
1949
25.7
20.8
23.3
18.9
Currency Savand
ings
Total 2 deacmand counts
deposits
18.9
13.2
9.0
10.0
5.6
6.3 -1.4 -0.9
3.4
1.6 -.8
2.3
1.3 -.1
2.7
1.8 -.4
1.1
1.1
1.0
.8
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.6
4.2
6.9
10.5
9.0
5.8
7.5
7.1
7.0
3.3
3.2
7.4
2.5
3.8
4.3
5.0
4.1
2.7
3.2
2.8
2.9
0.0
2.5
2.9
2.6
-.1
.7
1.6
1.6
.9
.7
6.9
6.3
7.8
8.0
7.9
13.7
13.5
12.8
13.5
13.7
10.2
5.5
3.6
6.4
4.9
6.4
4.6
2.5
1.6
2.7
7.4
7.1
6.4
7.7
8.6
4.1
1.2
4.8
3.9
1.1
5.6
3.8
30
2.1
6.0
1.1 8.5
1.9 9.5
1.5 9.5
1.5 10.4
.6 11.9
17.7
16.4
13.8
12.7
16.5
9.9
5.9
4.9
.6
5.5
3.5 12.2
1.9 11.2
2.3 8.8
3.3 8.8
3.2 12.6
6.4
3.5
2.6
.2
6.4
6.8
3.4
4.2
6.2
8.0
26.9
30.3
27.2
30.4
28.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
34.1
36.0
34.1
33.0
34.7
28.4
30.0
28.6
31.6
36.5
32.3
31.7
37.1
39.1
49.5
31.6
35.1
39.1
45.1
55.5
1.9
2.5
1.7
3.0
4.7
11.4
16.5
25.7
24.6
27.4
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
55.4
65.1
65.0
68.3
60.6
58.2
62.6
69.0
73.3
62.1
7.8
3.9
11.3
12.5
L6
28.0
20.5
34.8
30.3
6.0
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
76.2
87.4
97.9
120.2
115.8
80.6
99.7
124.4
138.2
129.9
11.3
11.1
12.1
13.1
4.6
1974: I....
II...
III...
IV.. .
116.0
117.2
107.2
123.7
122.4
143.0
117.2
137.1
10.3
9.6
-3.6
2.0
1975: 1....
II...
III...
110.4
166.1
121.1
135.7 -13.8 107.1
42.2 96.5
196.3
2.7 73.7
146.7
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
....
. ..
l.'s
.8
Non- MortInsurance
gage
Con- corand Non- sumer
po- debt Con- Other
pen- farm du- rate
on sumer
sion homes rables busi- non- credit debt*
reness farm
serves
assets homes
(8)
Corporate
equities <
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1.2
1.8
Securities
Less: Increase in
net debt
Corporate
and
foreign
bonds
-2*. 9
-2.0
2.6
13.8
4.6
18.8
22.7
1.6
1.0
22.5
2.2
22.7
. ..
Net investment in
2.5
4.9
7.8
8.3
9.3
Government
securities'
~L9
2.3
.8
-.8
.0
.0
-.1
8.8
6.0
3.9
9.6
2.2
12.1
14.1 -2.4
9.0
11.3
1.0
.9
1.1
1.3
.3
3.5
.6
.1
-.1
.0
.1
-.4
.4
-2.1
-2.9
-.2
11.6
12.2
12.7
14.1
15.6
14.5
12.0
12.8
12.6
12.5
5.1
2.9
6.7
8.9
11.2
2.2
3.2
5.6
6.9
6.2
10.8
10.9
12.7
14.8
16.0
4.6
1.8
5.8
7.9
8.5
5.7
8.7
8.5
11.8
11.4
1.0
2.0
4.6
4.7
6.6
-2.2
-.9
-4.3
-6.5
-3.8
17.0
19.4
19.6
20.1
21.3
12.0
11.5
9.2
12.8
13.3
14.8
15.2
12.4
16.7
16.2
9.0
7.2
8.2
7.9
9.0
15.2
12.7
10.4
14.6
16.1
9.6
6.4
4.5
10.0
10.4
13.7
12.4
18.9
17.7
13.5
44.4 -10.4 10.7
70.3 -14.5 9.3
75.4
1.6 5.2
67.7 24.7
1.1
59.6 24.5 -1.7
-1.7
-5.3
-5.4
-8.2
-1.0
24.3
27.7
30.3
31.6
38.9
10.6
17.6
24.3
27.2
21.9
10.6
16.5
24.4
27.1
10.7
6.6
11.0
10.6
15.4
11.6
12.5
24.2
38.4
44.2
32.6
6.0
11.2
19.2
22.9
9.6
13.7
21.9
28.2
20.5
16.3
18.9
1.2 -3.0
24.9 -4.0 -4.1
49.2 -10.1
.3
5.1 6.3 2.6
27.8
46.8
38.1
43.1
22.4
19.9
22.7
22.7
11.6
12.7
17.1
1.6
14.9
14.9
10.1
6.7
8.2
34.2
37.8 17.2
28.2 15.8
30.0 -3.6
12.9
18.3
15.9
18.0
12.8 -2.0 36.3
3.2
.6 55.2
7.3 1.9 37.5
18.8
17.1
20.4
5.5 -4.0 32.5 -3.3
2.1
7.3 -.7 37.3
13.6
.7 33.3 11.8
16.3
14.5
15.0
76.2
63.4
27.5
71.3
-!s
4.4
5.7
4.3
11.3
"is
22.5
-10.;
23!i
i Saving by households, personal trust funds, nonprofit institutions, farms, and other noncorporate business.
*3 Includes commercial paper and miscellaneous financial assets, not shown separately.
Consists of U.S. savings bonds, other U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. Government agency securities and sponsored
agency
securities, and State and local obligations.
4
Includes investment company shares.
* Private life insurance reserves, private insured and noninsured pension reserves, and government insurance and
pension reserves.
* Security credit, policy loans, noncorporate business mortgage debt, and other debt.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
193
TABLE B-20.—Number and money income (in 1974 dollars} of families and unrelated individuals
by race of head, 1947-74
Total
White
Year
FAMILIES
1947
1948-..
1949
37.2
38.6
39.3
$6, 691
6,530
6,428
1950...
1951
1952
1953
1954 .
1955..
1956
1957 _ .
1958
1959
39.9
40.6
40.8
41.2
42.0
42.9
43.5
43.7
44.2
45.1
6,800 32.8
7,041 30.5
7,227 29.0
7,821 26.8
7,646 28.5
8,137 25.6
8,b73 23.4
8,701 23.4
8,676 23.6
9,165 22.3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
45.5
46.4
47.1
47.5
48.0
48.5
49.2
50.1
50.8
51.6
9,358
9,454
9,709
10, 064
10, 444
10, 874
11, 445
11,717
12, 236
12, 689
21.8
21.8
20.5
19.6
18.9
17.7
15.7
15.1
13.6
13.2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
52.2
53.3
54.4
.. .... 55.1
55.7
12, 531
12, 523
13, 103
13, 373
12, 836
13.6
13.7
13.1
12.6
13.1
33.8
34.5
35.7
34.1
35.3
$6,970
6,780
6,685
30.5
31.2
32.6
18.5
38.2
39.0
39.5
39.7
40.2
40.9
7,057
7,326
7,644
8,110
7,959
8,495
9,076
9,055
9,039
9,547
29.8
27.2
25.4
24.0
25.7
22.8
20.4
20.5
20.6
19.4
18.1
18.1
17.2
15.9
15.0
13.9
11.8
11.4
10.0
9.7
41.1
41.9
42.4
42.7
43.1
43.5
44.1
44.8
45.4
46.0
9,716
9,859
10, 168
10, 547
10, 903
11,334
11, 890
12, 162
12, 668
13, 175
19.1
19.0
17.7
16.9
16.5
15.4
13.5
13.2
11.9
11.5
10.1
10.0
9.3
8.8
9.2
46.5
47.6
48.5
48.9
49.5
13, 000
12,995
13,614
13,977
13, 356
11.8
11.8
11.1
10.7
11.1
Below
Below pov$3,000 erty
level
UNRELATED
INDIVIDUALS
1947
1948
1949
8.2
8.4
9.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968 .
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Negro and other races
Percent with
Percent with
incomes
incomes
Total
Total
num- Median
numBeMedian
Beber
ber income BeBelow (millow
(mil- income low
povlow
povlions)
$5,000 erty lions)
$5,000 erty
level
level
.
2,164
2,041
2,172
3.1
3.3
$3, 563
3,622
3,414
68.5
68.4
70.6
15.2
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2
3,828 65.2
3,858 64.1
4,344 59.7
4,547 55.2
,433 55.7
,685 53.1
,775 52.5
,841 51.5
,630 53.2
,931 50.8
50.4
14.9
14.8
13.9
12.8
12.2
11.1
9.3
9.0
8.0
7.7
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.8
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.2
5, 379
5,260
5,425
5,580
6,102
6,242
7,128
7,524
7,924
8,328
46.6
47.9
45.9
44.8
40.1
38.6
34.3
32.6
29.7
28.0
49.0
49.0
48.0
43.7
40.0
39.7
33.9
32.1
28.2
26.9
8.0
7.9
7.1
6.6
7.0
5.4
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.3
8,275
8,175
8,376
8,429
8,265
28.5
29.1
29.2
28.4
29.5
28.1
27.4
27.7
26.2
26.0
Below
Below pov$3, 000 erty
level
7.2
7.3
60.9
62.5
59.6
Percent with
incomes
Total
num- Median
Beber
Below
(mil- income low
povlions)
$5,000 erty
level
BeBe- low
low pov$3,000 erty
level
1.0
1.0
1,647
1,616
1,695
75.7
74.4
72.0
2,283 57.2
2,387 55.8
2,821 52.2
2,716 52.8
1.4
2,414 56.7
. 1.4
2,579 55.0
1.3
2,656 54.3
1.5
2,799 52.5
1.6
2,715 53.1
2,815 52.4 "44." l" 1.6
1,673
1,764
1,952
2,136
1,602
1,722
1,972
1,779
1,841
1,818
69.9
65.5
70.0
62.1
69.1
69.6
60.6
65.3
66.1
66.7
57.4
2,286
2,157
2,345
58.7
60.9
57.4
9.4
9.1
9.7
9.5
9.7
. . 9.9
9.8
10.4
10.9
10.9
2,140 58.9
2,268 57.2
2,618 54.8
2,573 54.4
2,242 58.7
2,426 57.1
2,587 55.1
2,617 54.3
2,535 54.9
2,635 54.4
46.1
8.3
8.5
8.5
8.9
9.2
9.3
ill.l
U1.2
ill.O
111.2
112.1
... 112.2
112.5
U3.2
113.9
U4.6
2,864
2,891
2,858
2,900
3 153
3,365
3,480
3,514
3,949
3,943
51.6
51.6
52.2
51.7
48.7
46.4
45.3
45.0
41.4
41.0
45.2
45.9
45.4
44.2
42.7
39.8
38.3
38.1
34.0
34.0
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.7
10.4
10.5
10.7
11.3
12.0
12.5
3,096
3,108
3,058
3,040
3,320
3,509
3,659
3,648
4,184
4,140
49.5
49.2
49.8
49.9
47.2
45.0
43.5
43.6
39.8
39.4
43.0
43.2
42.7
42.0
40.7
38.1
36.1
36.5
32.2
32.1
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.8
2.0
1,778 64.5
1,903 65.5
2,042 66.7
2,086 63.1
2,275 58.1
2,559 55.2
2,301 57.4
2,696 54.0
2,834 52.1
2,919 51.2
59.3
62.7
62.1
58.3
55.0
50.7
53.1
48.2
45.7
45.5
U5.5
16.3
16.8
18.3
18.9
3,984
4,038
4,150
4,587
4,439
40.7
39.8
37.7
34.1
34.9
32.9
31.6
29.0
25.6
25.5
13.4
14.2
14.5
15.8
16.3
4,169
4,219
4,334
4,738
4,636
39.0
37.9
36.1
32.5
32.8
30.8
29.6
27.1
23.7
23.2
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.6
2,849
2,831
3,219
3,541
3,149
46.7
44.9
40.9
37.8
40.0
52.0
52.8
47.6
44.4
48.0
i Revised using population controls based on the 1970 Census. Such controls not available by race.
Note.—The poverty level is based on the poverty index adopted by a Federal interagency committee in 1969. That
index reflects different consumption requirements for families based on size and composition, sex and age of family head,
and farm-nonfarm residence. The poverty threshold is updated every year to reflect changes in the consumer price index.
For further details, see Current Population Reports, Series P-60, No. 99, Bureau of the Census.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
194
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
PRODUCTIVITY
TABLE B-21.—Population by age groups, 1929-75
[Thousands of persons]
Age (years)
Julyl
Total
Under 5
5-15
16-19
20-24
25-44
45-64
65 and
over
1929
121, 767
11,734
26, 800
9,127
10, 694
35, 862
21, 076
6,474
1933
125, 579
10,612
26, 897
9,302
11,152
37, 319
22, 933
7,363
1939
130, 880
10, 418
25, 179
9,822
11, 519
39, 354
25, 823
8,764
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
132, 122
133, 402
134, 860
136, 739
138, 397
10, 579
10, 850
11,301
12, 016
12, 524
24, 811
24, 516
24, 231
24, 093
23, 949
9,895
9,840
9,730
9,607
9,561
11,690
11, 807
11,955
12, 064
12, 062
39, 868
40, 383
40, 861
41, 420
42, 016
26, 249
26, 718
27, 196
27, 671
28, 138
9,031
9,288
9,584
9,867
10, 147
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
139, 928
141, 389
144, 126
146, 631
149, 188
12, 979
13, 244
14, 406
14, 919
15, 607
23, 907
24, 103
24, 468
25, 209
25, 852
9,361
9,119
9,097
8,952
8,788
12, 036
12, 004
11,814
11,794
11,700
42, 521
43, 027
43, 657
44, 288
44, 916
28, 630
29, 064
29, 498
29, 931
30, 405
10, 494
10, 828
11, 185
11, 538
11,921
1950
1951
1952
1953 . .
1954
152, 271
154, 878
157, 553
160, 184
163, 026
16, 410
17, 333
17, 312
17, 638
18, 057
26, 721
27, 279
28, 894
30, 227
31, 480
8,542
8,446
8,414
8,460
8,637
11,680
11, 552
11, 350
11, 062
10, 832
45, 672
46, 103
46, 495
46, 786
47, 001
30, 849
31, 362
31, 884
32, 394
32, 942
12, 397
12, 803
13, 203
13, 617
14, 076
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
165, 931
168, 903
171, 984
174, 882
177, 830
18, 566
19, 003
19, 494
19, 887
20, 175
32, 682
33, 994
35, 272
36, 445
37, 368
8,744
8,916
9,195
9,543
10, 215
10,714
47, 194
10, 616 * 47, 379
47, 440
10, 603
47, 337
10, 756
10,969
47, 192
33, 506
34, 057
34, 591
35, 109
35, 663
14,525
14, 938
15, 388
15, 806
16, 248
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
180, 671
183, 691
186, 538
189, 242
191, 889
20, 341
20, 522
20, 469
20, 342
20, 165
38, 494
39, 765
41, 205
41, 626
42, 297
10,683
11,025
11, 180
12, 007
12, 736
11,134
11, 483
11,959
12,714
13, 269
47, 140
47, 084
47,013
46, 994
46, 958
36, 203
36, 722
37,255
37, 782
38, 338
16,675
17, 089
17, 457
17, 778
18, 127
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
194, 303
196, 560
198, 712
200,706
202, 677
19, 824
19, 208
18,563
17,913
17, 376
42, 938
43, 702
44, 244
44,622
44, 840
13, 516
14, 311
14, 200
14,452
14, 800
13, 746
14,050
15, 248
15,786
16, 480
46, 912
47, 001
47, 194
47,721
48, 064
38, 916
39, 534
40, 193
40,846
41, 437
18, 451
18,755
19,071
19,365
19, 680
1970
1971
1972
1973.. _
1974
204, 878
207, 053
208, 846
210, 410
211,894
17, 148
17, 177
16,981
16,694
16, 292
44, 774
44, 440
43,949
43,227
42, 537
15, 274
15,635
15,947
16,310
16, 590
17, 184
18,089
18, 033
18, 345
18, 740
48, 436
48,811
50, 256
51,412
52, 594
41,974
42,413
42, 788
43,077
43, 317
20,087
20,488
20,893
21, 346
21,824
1975
213, 631
15,896
41,977
16,803
19,242
53,760
43, 551
22,400
Note.—Includes Armed Forces overseas beginning 1940. Includes Alaska and Hawaii beginning 1950.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
195
TABLE B-22.—Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-75
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Noninstitutional
popu-1
lation
Year or month
Civilian labor force
Total
labor
force
(includ- Armed
ing
Forces i
Armed
Forces)
Employment
Total
Total
Agricultural
Nonagricultural
Unemployment
Labor
force
particiUnem- pation
ployrate
ment
(total
rate
labor
(percent force as
of
percent
civilian of noninstitulabor
force)
tional
population)
Percent
Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over
55, 600
370
55,230
45, 750
9,610
36, 140
9,480
3.2
24.9
17.2
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
100,380
101,520
102,610
103,660
104,630
56,180
57,530
60,380
64,560
66,040
540
1,620
3,970
9,020
11,410
55,640
55,910
56,410
55,540
54,630
47,520
50,350
53,750
54,470
53,960
9,540
9,100
9,250
9,080
8,950
37,980
41, 250
44,500
45,390
45,010
8,120
5,560
2,660
1,070
670
14.6
9.9
4.7
1.9
1.2
56.0
56.7
58.8
62.3
63.1
1945
1946
1947
105,530
106,520
107,608
65,300
60,970
61,758
11,440
3,450
1,590
53,860
57,520
60, 168
52,820
55, 250
57,812
8,580
8,320
8,256
44, 240
46,930
49,557
1,040
2,270
2,356
1.9
3.9
3.9
61.9
57.2
57.4
1929
49,440
260
49, 180
47,630
10,450
37, 180
1,550
1933
51,840
250
51, 590
38, 760
10, 090
28, 670
12, 830
1939
. . .
Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over
103,418
104,527
105,611
60,941
62,080
62,903
1,591
1,459
1,617
59,350
60, 621
61, 286
57,039
58,344
57,649
7,891
7,629
7,656
49, 148
50,713
49,990
2,311
2,276
3,637
3.9
3.8
5.9
58.9
59.4
59.6
1950
1951
1952 2
1953
1954
106,645
107, 721
108,823
110, 601
111,671
63,858
65,117
65,730
66,560
66,993
1,650
3,100
3,592
3,545
3,350
62,208
62,017
62, 138
63,015
63,643
58,920
59,962
60,254
61, 181
60,110
7,160
6,726
6,501
6,261
6,206
51,760
53, 239
53,753
54,922
53,903
3,288
2,055
1,883
1,834
3,532
5.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.5
59.9
60.4
60.4
60.2
60.0
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
112,732
113,811
115,065
116,363
117,881
68,072
69,409
69,729
70,275
70,921
3,049
2,857
2,800
2,636
2,552
65,023
66,552
66,929
67,639
68,369
62,171
63,802
64,071
63,036
64,630
6,449
6,283
5,947
5,586
5,565
55,724
57,517
58, 123
57,450
59,065
2,852
2,750
2,859
4,602
3,740
4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5.5
60.4
61.0
60.6
60.4
60.2
119,759
121,343
122,981
125, 154
127, 224
72, 142
73,031
73, 442
74,571
75,830
2,514
2572
2,828
2,738
2,739
69,628
70,459
70, 614
71,833
73,091
65,778
65,746
66,702
67,762
69,305
5,458
5,200
4,944
4,687
4,523
60, 318
60,546
61,759
63, 076
64,782
3,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3,786
5.5
6.7
5.5
5.7
5.2
60.2
60.2
59.7
59.6
59.6
129,236
131, 180
133,319
135,562
137,841
77,178
78,893
80, 793
82, 272
84, 240
2,723
3,123
3,446
3,535
3,506
74,455
75,770
77,347
78,737
80,734
71,088
72,895
74,372
75,920
77,902
4,361
3,979
3,844
3,817
3,606
66,726
68,915
70,527
72, 103
74, 296
3,3662,875
2,975
2,817
2,832
4.5
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
59.7
60.1
60.6
60.7
61.1
140, 182
142,596
145,775
. 148,263
150, 827
85,903
86,929
88,991
91,040
93,240
3,188
2,817
2,449
2,326
2,229
82, 715
84,113
86,542
88,714
91, Oil
78,627
79, 120
81,702
84,409
85,936
3,462
3,387
3,472
3,452
3,492
75, 165
75,732
78,230
80,957
82,443
4,088
4,993
4,840
4,304
5,076
4.9
5.9
5.6
4.9
5.6
61.3
61.0
61.0
61.4
61.8
153,449
94,793
2,180
92,613
84,783
3,380
81,403
7,830
8.5
61.8
1947
1948
1949
I9603
1961 2
1962
1963
1964 .
..
..
.
.
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
19722
1973 »
1974
1975
.
See footnotes at end of table.
196
TABLE B-22.—Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-75—Continued
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Year or month
Noninstitutional
population i
Total
labor
force
(includ- Armed
Forces 1
ing
Armed
Forces)
Civilian labor force
Employment
Total
Total
Agricultural
Nonagricultural
Unemployment
Labor
force
particiUnem- pation
ployrate
(total
ment
rate
labor
(percent force as
of
percent
civilian of nonlabor instituforce) tional
population)
Thousands of persons 16 years cf age and over
149, 656
149, 857
150, 066
150, 283
150, 507
150, 710
92, 659
92, 837
92, 800
92,715
92, 982
93, 206
2,258
2,258
2,251
2,243
2,229
2,212
90, 401
90, 579
90, 549
90, 472
90,753
90, 994
85, 865
85, 948
86, 033
85, 990
86, 154
86, 167
3,737
3,735
3,661
3,576
3,502
3,372
82, 128
82,213
82, 372
82,414
82,652
82, 795
,536
,631
,516
,482
,599
,827
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.3
61.9
62.0
61.8
61.7
61.8
61.8
150, 922
151, 135
151,367
151, 593
151,812
. . 152,020
93, 519
93, 377
93, 791
93, 810
93, 939
93, 854
2,220
2,220
2,217
2,214
2,213
2,212
91,299
91, 157
91, 574
91, 596
91,726
91,642
86, 292
86, 170
86, 155
86, 012
85, 549
85, 053
3,425
3,447
3,460
3,428
3,385
3,338
82, 867
82, 723
82, 695
82, 584
82, 164
81,715
5,007
4,987
5,419
5,584
6,177
6,589
5.5
5.5
5.9
6.D
6.7 \
7.2J
62.0
61.8
62.0
61.9
61.9
61.7
152, 230
152, 445
152, 646
152, 840
153,051
153, 278
94, 156
93, 721
94, 078
94, 449
94, 950
94, 747
2,193
2,198
2,198
2,195
2,181
2,178
91,963
91, 523
91,880
92, 254
92, 769
92, 569
84, 666
84, 163
84,110
84, 313
84, 519
84, 498
3,370
3,252
3,268
3,301
3,528
3,350
81,296
80,911
80, 842
81,012
80, 991
81, 148
7,297
7,360
7,770
7,941
8,250
8,071
7.9
8.0
8.5
8.6
8.9
8.7
61.9
61.5
61.6
61.8
62.0
61.8
153, 585
153, 824
154, 052
154,256
154, 476
154,700
95, 250
95, 397
95, 298
95, 377
95, 273
95, 286
2,187
2,185
2,170
2,164
2,156
2,157
93, 063
93,212
93, 128
93,213
93, 117
93, 129
84, 967
85, 288
85, 158
85, 151
85, 178
85, 394
3,439
3,464
3,512
3,408
3,301
3,236
81, 528
81,824
81, 646
81,743
81,877
82, 158
8,096
7,924
7,970
8,062
7,939
7,735
8.7
8.5
8.6
8.61
8.5[
8.3\
62.0
62.0
61.9
61.8
61.7
61.6
1974: Jan ....
Feb.
Mar
Apr .. _
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1975: Jan.
Feb
Mar
Apr...
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1 Not seasonally adjusted.
2 Not strictly comparable with earlier data due to population adjustments as follows: Beginning 1953, introduction of
1950 Census data added about 600,000 to population and about 350,000 to labor force, total employment, and agricultural
employment. Beginning 1960, inclusion of Alaska and Hawaii added about 500,000 to population, about 300,000 to labor
force, and about 240,000 to nonagricultural employment. Beginning 1962, introduction of 1960 Census data reduced population by about 50,000 and labor force and employment by about 200,000. Beginning 1972, introduction of 1970 Census
data added about 800,000 to civilian noninstitutional population and about 333,000 to labor force and employment. A
subsequent adjustment based on 1970 Census in March 1973 added 60,000 to labor force and to employment. Overall
categories of the labor force other than those noted were not appreciably affected.
Note.—Labor force data in Tables B-22 through B-25 are based on household interviews and relate to the calendar
week including the 12th of the month. For definitions of terms, area samples used, historical comparability of the data,
comparability with other series, etc., see "Employment and Earnings."
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
197
TABLE B-23/—Civilian employment and unemployment by sex and age, 1947-75
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Employment
Unemployment
Females
Males
Year or
month
Total
Total
16-19
years
20
years
and
over
Total
16-19
years
Males
20
years
and
over
Total
Females
20
20
years
16-19 years
Total 16-19
years and Total years and
over
over
1947... 57, 039 40,994 2,218 38, 776 16,045 1,691 14, 354 2,311 1,692
1948... 58,344 41,726 2,345 39,382 16,618 1,683 14, 937 2,276 1,559
1949... 57, 649 40,926 2,124 38, 803 16, 723 1,588 15, 137 3,637 2,572
1950... 58,920 41, 580 2,186 39,394 17, 340 1,517 15, 824 3,288 2,239
1951... 59,962 41, 780 2,156 39,626 18, 182 1,611 16, 570 2,055 1,221
1952... 60, 254 41,684 2,106 39, 578 18, 570 1,612 16,958 1,883 1,185
19531.. 61,181 42,431 2,135 40,296 18,750 1,584 17, 164 1,834 1,202
1954... 60, 110 41,620 1,985 39,634 18,490 1,490 17, 000 3,532 2,344
270 1,422 619
255 1,305
717
352 2,219 1,065
144
152
223
475
564
841
318
191
205
184
310
1,922 1,049
1,029 834
980 698
1,019 632
2,035 1,188
195
145
140
123
191
854
689
559
510
997
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
62, 171
63, 802
64,071
63, 036
64,630
42,621
43,380
43, 357
42, 423
43,466
2,095
2,164
2,117
2,012
2,198
40, 526
41,216
41,239
40,411
41, 267
19, 550
20,422
20, 714
20,613
21, 164
1,548
1,654
1,663
1,570
1,640
18, 002
18,767
19,052
19, 043
19, 524
2,852
2,750
2,859
4,602
3,740
1,854
1,711
1,841
3,098
2,420
274
269
299
416
398
1,580
1,442
1,541
2,681
2,022
998
1,039
1,018
1,504
1,320
176 823
209 832
197 821
262 1,242
256 1,063
19601..
1961...
19621..
1963...
1964...
65, 778
65, 746
66,702
67, 762
69,305
43,904
43, 656
44, 177
44, 657
45,474
2,360
2,314
2,362
2,406
2,587
41, 543
41, 342
41,815
42, 251
42, 886
21,874
22, 090
22, 525
23, 105
23, 831
1,769
1,793
1,833
1,849
1,929
20, 105
20, 296
20, 693
21,257
21,903
3,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3,786
2,486
2,997
2,423
2,472
2,205
425
479
407
500
487
2,060
2,518
2,016
1,971
1,718
1,366
1,717
1,488
1,598
1,581
286
349
313
383
386
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
71, 088
72,895
74,372
75,920
77,902
46,340
46,919
47,479
48, 114
48, 818
2,918
3,252
3,186
3,255
3,430
43,422
43,668
44, 293
44, 859
45, 388
24,748
25, 976
26, 893
27, 807
29, 084
2,118
2,469
2,497
2,525
2,686
22,630
23, 510
24, 397
25, 281
26,397
3,366
2,875
2,975
2,817
2,832
1,914
1,551
1,508
1,419
1,403
479 1,435 1,452
432 1,120 1,324
448 1,060 1,468
427 993 1,397
441 963 1,429
395 1,056
404 921
391 1,078
412 985
412 1,016
1970...
1971...
19721.
19731..
1974...
78,627
79, 120
81,702
84,409
85, 936
48, 960
49, 245
50,630
51, 963
52, 519
3,407
3,470
3,750
4,017
4,074
45, 553
45,775
46.880
47,946
48, 445
29,667
29,875
31.072
32,446
33, 417
2,734
2,725
2,972
3,219
3,329
26,933
27, 149
28, 100
29,228
30, 088
4,088
4,993
4,840
4,304
5,076
2,235
2,776
2.635
2,240
2,668
599
691
707
647
749
506
567
595
579
660
1,636
2,086
1,928
1,594
1,918
1,853
2,217
2,205
2,064
2,408
1,080
1,368
1,175
1,216
1,195
1,347
1,650
1,610
1,485
1,748
1975... 84, 783 51,230 3,803 47,427 33, 553 3,243 30, 310 7,830 4,385
957 3,428 3,445
795 2,649
1974:
Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June-
85, 865
85,948
86, 033
85,990
86, 154
86, 167
52, 881
52, 755
52, 671
52, 573
52, 760
52, 606
4,207
4,164
4,154
4,116
4,135
4,075
48, 674
48, 591
48, 517
48, 457
48, 625
48, 531
32, 984
33, 193
33, 362
33, 417
33, 394
33, 561
3,357
3,376
3,373
3,343
3,290
3,344
29, 627
29, 817
29, 989
30, 074
30, 104
30, 217
4,536
4,631
4,516
4,482
4,599
4,827
2,340
2,441
2,344
2,385
2,391
2,522
677
694
694
681
710
767
1,663
1,747
1,650
1,704
1,681
1,755
2,196
2,190
2,172
2,097
2,208
2,305
631 1,565
614 1,576
617 1,555
546 ,551
632 ,576
673 ,632
July.,
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec..
86, 292
86, 170
86, 155
86, 012
85, 549
85, 053
52, 464
52, 492
52, 542
52, 481
52, 237
51,815
4,032
4,021
4,065
4,056
3,995
3,948
48, 432
48, 471
48, 477
48, 425
48, 242
47, 867
33,828
33, 678
33, 613
33, 531
33, 312
33, 238
3,247
3,314
3,408
3,368
3,319
3,246
30, 581
30, 364
30, 205
30, 163
29, 993
29,992
5,007
4,987
5,419
5,584
6,177
6,589
2,570
2,655
2,833
3,044
3,283
3,558
746
705
824
803
844
852
1,824
1,950
2,009
2,241
2,439
2,706
2,437
2,332
2,586
2,540
2,894
3,031
732 ,705
593 ,739
693 ,893
730 ,810
731 2,163
733 2,298
1975:
Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June-
84, 666
84, 163
84, 110
84, 313
84, 519
84, 498
51, 387
51, 151
50, 952
51,046
51, 195
50,978
3,849
3,812
3,794
3,775
3,859
3,728
47, 538
47, 339
47, 158
47, 271
47, 336
47, 250
33, 279
33,012
33, 158
33, 267
33, 324
33, 520
3,295
3,220
3,199
3,224
3,247
3,254
29, 984
29, 792
29,959
30, 043
30,077
30,266
7,297
7,360
7,770
7,941
8,250
8,071
3,901 942
4,048 944
4,261 952
4,412 982
4,637 970
4,608 1,057
2,959
3,104
3,309
3,430
3,667
3,551
3,396
3,312
3,509
3,529
3,613
3,463
823
753
809
737
842
765
2,573
2,559
2,700
2,792
2,771
2,698
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec..
84, 967
85, 288
85, 158
85, 151
85, 178
85, 394
51, 280
51, 446
51, 334
51, 300
51, 325
51, 390
3,799
3,791
3,818
3,787
3,804
3,804
47, 481
47, 655
47, 516
47, 513
47, 521
47, 586
33, 687
33, 842
33, 824
33, 851
33, 853
34, 004
3,234
3,235
3,273
3,230
3,234
3,249
30, 453
30, 607
30, 551
30, 621
30, 619
30, 755
8,096
7,924
7,970
8,062
7,939
7,735
4,657 1,015 3,642 3,439
4,472 997 3,475 3,452
4,604 912 3,692 3,366
4,645 933 3,712 3,417
4,538 883 3,655 3,401
4,246 895 3,351 3,489
795
832
796
802
764
829
2,644
2,620
2,570
2,615
2,637
2,660
i See footnote 2, Table B-22.
Note.—See Note, Table B-22.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
198
TABLE K-24.—Selected unemployment rates, 1948-75
(Percent»; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
By color
By sex and age
Year or month
All
workers
Both
sexes
16^19
years
Men
20
years
and
over
Women 20
years
and
over
White
By selected groups
ExpeNegro rienced
wage Houseand
and
hold
other salary
races work- heads
ers
Married
men a
Fulltime
workers*
Bluecollar
workers*
4.2
8.0
1948
1949
3.8
5.9
9.2
13.4
3.2
5.4
3.6
5.3
3.5
5.6
5.9
8.9
4.3
6.8
3.5
5.4
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
5.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.5
4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5.5
12.2
8.2
8.5
7.6
12.6
11.0
11.1
11.6
15.9
14.6
4.7
2.5
2.4
2.5
4.9
3.8
3.4
3.6
6.2
4.7
5.1
4.0
3.2
2.9
5.5
4.4
4.2
4.1
6.1
5.2
4.9
3.1
2.8
2.7
5.0
3.9
3.6
3.8
6.1
4.8
9.0
5.3
5.4
4.5
9.9
8.7
8.3
7.9
12.6
10.7
6.0
3.7
3.3
3.2
6.2
4.8
4.4
4.6
7.2
5.7
4.6
1.5
1.4
1.7
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.8
5.1
3.6
5.0
2.6
2.5
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
5.5
6.7
5.5
5.7
5.2
4.5
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
14.7
16.8
14.7
17.2
16.2
14.8
12.8
12.8
12.7
12.2
4.7
5.7
4.6
4.5
3.9
3.2
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
5.1
6.3
5.4
5.4
5.2
4.5
3.8
4.2
3.8
3.7
4.9
6.0
4.9
5.0
4.6
4.1
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.1
10.2
12.4
10.9
10.8
9.6
8.1
7.3
7.4
6.7
6.4
5.7
6.8
5.6
5.5
5.0
4.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.7
3.2
2.7
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
3.7
4.6
3.6
3.4
2.8
2.4
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
4.9
5.9
5.6
4.9
5.6
8.5
15.2
16.9
16.2
14.5
16.0
19.9
3.5
4.4
4.0
3.2
3.8
6.7
4.8
5.7
5.4
4.8
5.5
8.0
4.5
5.4
5.0
4.3
5.0
7.8
8.2
9.9
10.0
8.9
9.9
13.9
4.8
5.7
5.3
4.5
5.3
8.2
2.9
3.6
3.3
2.9
3.3
5.8
May"
June
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.3
14.7
14.8
14.8
14.1
15.3
16.3
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.5
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.1
.5
.5
.5
.4
.6
.8
9.0
9.2
9.1
8.7
9.1
9.2
4.7
4.9
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.1
July....
Aug.__.
Sept.—
Oct
Nov....
Dec
5.5
5.5
5.9
6.1
6.7
7.2
16.9
15.0
16.9
17.1
17.7
18.1
3.6
3.9
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.9
5.7
6.7
7.1
4.9
5.0
5.4
5.5
6.1
6.5
9.9
9.5
9.8
11.0
11.7
12.5
5.2
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
7.9
8.0
8.5
8.6
8.9
8.7
19.8
19.4
20.1
19.7
20.3
20.7
5.9
6.2
6.6
6.8
7.2
7.0
7.9
7.9
8.3
8.5
8.4
8.2
7.3
7.3
7.8
7.9
8.3
8.0
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
8.7
8.5
8.6
8.6
8.5
8.3
20.5
20.7
19.4
19.8
19.0
19.6
7.1
6.8
7.2
7.2
7.1
6.6
8.0
7.9
7.8
7.9
7.9
8.0
8.1
7.8
7.8
8.0
7.8
7.6
.
.
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Labor
force
time
lost s
7.2
3.9
3.6
3.4
7.2
5.8
5.1
6.2
10.2
7.6
5.'l
5.3
8.1
6.6
5.5
4.9
4.2
3.5
3.4
3.1
3.1
7.8
9.2
7.4
7.3
6.3
5.3
4.2
4.4
4.1
3.9
6.7
8.0
6.7
6.4
5.8
5.0
4.2
4.2
4.0
3.9
2.6
3.2
2.8
2.3
2.7
5.1
4.5
5.5
5.1
4.3
5.1
8.1
6.2
7.4
6.5
5.3
6.7
11.7
5.3
6.4
6.0
5.2
6.1
9.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.7
5.8
5.9
5.8
6.1
5.7
6.1
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.6
I:?
5.8
6.5
7.1
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.7
4.1
4.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.9
5.0
5.0
5.4
5.7
6.3
6.7
6.3
6.8
7.2
7.6
8.5
9.7
5.8
6.0
6.5
6.7
7.3
7.9
13.0
13.3
13.8
14.1
14.2
14.0
7.7
7.8
8.3
8.7
9.0
8.7
5.2
5.3
5.7
5.8
6.1
6.1
4.4
4.7
5.0
5.3
5.7
5.5
7.5
7.6
8.0
8.3
8.5
8.4
10.6
10.6
12.0
12.6
12.8
12.4
8.7
8.7
9.3
9.4
9.7
8.9
13.4
14.3
14.4
14.3
13.9
13.8
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.2
6.1
5.7
6.0
6.0
5.8
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.5
5.3
5.1
4.8
8.5
8.1
8.4
8.5
8.3
7.9
12.3
11.9
11.9
11.6
11.3
10.7
8.9
8.9
9.1
9.4
9.3
8.9
5.2
3.8
3.7
4.0
7.2
6.7
_. r
... „.__,. ..-Jfied, except as noted.
> Married men living with their wives. Data for 1949 and 1951-54 are for April; 1950, for March.
> Data for 1949-61 are for May.
«Includes craft and kindred workers, operatives, and nonfarm laborers. Data for 1948-57 are based on data for
January, April, July, and October.
6
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially
available labor force hours.
Note.-See footnote 2 and Note, Table B-22.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
199
TABLE B-25.—Unemployment by duration, 1947-75
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted *]
Duration of unemployment
Total unemployment
Year or month
Less than
5 weeks
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
27 weeks
and over
Average
(mean)
duration
in weeks
Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over
1947
1948
1949
2,311
2,276
3,637
1,210
1,300
1,756
704
669
1,194
234
193
428
164
116
256
8.6
10.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
3,288
2,055
1,883
1,834
3,532
1,450
,177
,135
,142
,605
1,055
574
516
482
1,116
425
166
148
132
495
357
137
84
78
317
12.1
9.7
8.4
8.0
11.8
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
2,852
2,750
2,859
4,602
3,740
,335
,412
,408
,753
,585
815
805
891
1,396
1,114
366
301
321
785
469
336
232
239
667
571
13.0
11.3
10.5
13.9
14.4
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
3,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3,786
,719
,806
,663
,751
,697
1,176
1,376
1,134
1,231
1,117
503
728
534
535
491
454
804
585
553
482
12.8
15.6
14.7
14.0
13.3
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
3,366
2,875
2,975
2,817
2,832
,628
,573
,634
,594
,629
983
779
893
810
827
404
287
271
256
242
351
239
177
156
133
11.8
10.4
8.8
8.4
7.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
4,088
4,993
4,840
4,304
5,076
2,137
2,234
2,223
2,196
2,567
1,289
1,578
1,459
1,296
1,572
427
665
597
475
563
235
517
562
337
373
8.7
11.3
12.0
10.0
9.7
.
1975..
7,830
2,894
2,452
1,290
1,193
14.1
4,536
4,631
4,516
4,482
4,599
4,827
2,377
2,381
2,378
2,335
2,448
2,411
1,378
1,362
1,360
1,396
1,361
1,491
464
486
497
491
500
540
330
331
318
342
343
355
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.8
9.5
9.7
5,007
4,987
5,419
5,584
6,177
6,589
2,507
2,571
2,676
2,758
2,983
3,035
1,534
1,493
1,712
1,792
1,989
2,197
542
572
636
668
742
832
370
378
378
397
439
550
9.9
9.8
9.6
9.9
9.8
10.3
- -
7,297
7,360
7,770
7,941
8,250
8,071
3,267
2,866
3,165
2,935
3,081
2,733
2,599
2,484
2,540
2,590
2,589
2,511
940
1,107
1,240
1,341
1,479
1,480
632
721
738
937
,050
,271
10.8
11.7
11.4
12.8
13.3
15.3
.-
8,096
7,924
7,970
8,062
7,939
7,735
2,868
2,758
2,820
3,015
2,641
2,648
2,141
2,449
2,444
2,446
2,469
2,244
1,600
1,431
1,352
1,238
1,286
1,413
,354
,447
,582
,481
,718
,667
15.1
15.5
16.2
15.6
16.9
17.0
.
1974' Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept"
Oct
Nov
Dec
-
1975- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
.
i Because of independent seasonal adjustment of the various series, detail will not add to totals.
Note.—See footnote 2 and Note, Table B-22.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
200
TABLE B~26.—Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1946-75
State programs
All programs
Year or
month
Covered
employment 1
Insured
unemployment
(weekly
average) 2 3
Total
benefits
paid
(millions
of dollars) 2 ^
Insured unemployment
Exhaus
Season
Season
tions
" UnadUnadad
justed ally ad justed ally
justed
justed
31, 856
33,876
34,646
33,098
34, 308
36, 334
37, 006
38,072
36, 622
40, 018
42, 751
43,436
44, 411
45, 728
46, 334
46, 266
47, 776
48, 434
49, 637
51, 580
54, 739
56, 342
57, 977
59, 999
59, 526
59, 375
66,458
69, 897
71, 905
Apr
May _
June
July...
Aug...
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec...
1975: Jan
Feb...
Mar _.
Apr
May..
June
July...
Aug..
Sept p.
Octp
NOVP.
Decp.
2,804
1,793
1,446
2,474
1,605
1,000
1,069
1,067
2,051
1,399
1,323
1,571
3,269
2,099
2,071
2,994
1,946
7
1, 973
1,753
1,450
1,129
1,270
1,187
1,177
2,070
2,608
2,192
1,793
2,558
4,920
2,739
2,824
2,751
2,564
2,278
2,161
2,290
2,153
2,081
2,246
2,825
3,910
5,213
5,751
5,886
5,647
5,202
4,892
4,990
4,590
4,254
4,044
4,120
4,460
2,878.5
1,785.5
1,328.7
2,269.8
1,467.6
862.9
1,043.5
1,050.6
2,291.8
1,560.2
1,540.6
1,913.0
4,290.6
2,854.3
3, 022. 8
4, 358. 1
3, 145. 1
3, 025. 9
2,749.2
2,360.4
1,890.9
2,221.5
2,191.0
2,298.6
4, 209. 3
6,214.9
5,491.1
4,517.3
6,933.9
622.7
599.3
652.4
639.3
584.5
472.4
541.6
530.3
463.6
530.3
571.0
848.3
1,256.6
1,312.3
1,490.4
1, 539. 7
1,395.2
1,256.7
1, 406. 6
1,199.0
1,095.2
1,046.3
1,295
997
980
1,973
1,513
969
1,044
990
1,870
1,265
1,215
1,446
2,526
1,684
1,908
2,290
1,783
7 1, 806
1,605
1,328
1,061
1,205
1,111
1,101
1,805
2,150
1,848
1,632
2,262
3,973
2,561
2,630
2,502
2,217
1,934
1,834
1,989
1,874
1,783
1,947
2,499
3,550
4,752
5,108
5,091
4,775
4,281
3,878
3,871
3,436
3,077
2,924
3,045
3,409
1,965
2,045
2,099
2,099
2,093
2,103
2,113
2,132
2,251
2,478
2,808
3,291
3,652
3,955
4,216
4,522
4,628
4,427
4,128
3,898
3,885
3,718
3,429
3,193
189
187
200
340
236
208
215
218
304
226
227
270
369
277
331
350
302
7298
268
232
203
226
201
200
296
295
261
246
363
472.
446
359
293
263
237
269
340
283
274
348
480
703
795
609
510
463
401
427
480
375
340
367
402
501
38
24
20
37
36
16
18
15
34
25
20
23
50
33
31
46
32
30
26
21
15
17
16
16
25
39
35
29
37
426
382
366
294
251
272
315
272
308
338
447
552
565
546
545
525
494
487
421
443
449
439
386
375
Insured unemployment as per
cent of covered
employment
Unad- Season
justed allyac
justed
Benefits paid
Tntal
(millions of
dollars) ^
Average
weekly
check
(dollars)*
1,094.9
775.1
789.9
1,736.0
1, 373. 1
840.4
998.2
962.2
2,026.9
1,350.3
1,380.7
1,733.9
3,512.7
2,279.0
2,726.7
3,422.7
2,675.4
2,774.7
2, 522. 1
2,166.0
1,771.3
2,092.3
2,031.6
2,127.9
3,848.5
4, 957. 0
4,471.0
4,007.6
5, 974. 9
18.50
17.83
19.03
20.48
20.76
21.09
22.79
23.58
24.93
25.04
27.02
28.17
30.58
30.41
32.87
33.80
34.56
35.27
35.92
37.19
39.75
41.25
43.43
46.17
50.34
53.23
56.76
59.00
64.25
Percent
Weekly average thousands
Thousands
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974 p
1975 p
1974: Jan
Feb .
Mar.._
Initial claims
32
32
35
38
39
40
41
40
35
34
36
42
50
58
66
84
92
104
105
97
84
73
73
4.3
3.1
3.0
6.2
4.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
5.2
3.5
3.2
3.6
6.4
4.4
4.8
5.6
4.4
4.3
3.8
3.0
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.1
3.4
4.1
3.5
2.7
3.5
6.0
4.1
4.2
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.7
3.0
3.8
5.4
7.2
7.8
7.7
7.2
6.4
5.8
5.8
5.1
4.6
4.4
4.6
5.1
3.1
570.8
3.2
553.3
3.3
593.9
3.3
552.7
486.4
3.3
3.3
383.4
3.3
459.1
3.3
444.9
3.5
381.0
3.8
442.0
4.3
485.0
5.0
745.9
5.5 1,128.2
6.0 1,164.2
6.4 1, 290. 6
6.8 1,301.2
7.0 1, 145. 1
984.0
6.7
6.2 1,086.9
5.8
881.3
763.8
5.8
5.6
734.2
5.2
4.8
62.28
63.35
63.85
63.62
62.69
62.50
62.93
64.14
64.23
65.20
65.49
67.22
67.83
68.73
69.07
69.08
69.33
69.58
71.58
70.98
71.22
72.18
1
Includes persons under the State, UCFE (Federal employee, effective January 1955), and RRB (Railroad Retirement
Board) programs. Beginning October 1958, also includes the UCX program (unemployment compensation for ex-servicemen).
2 Includes State, UCFE, RR, UCX, UCV (unemployment compensation for veterans, October 1952-January 1960), and
SRA (Servicemen's Readjustment Act, September 1944-September 1951) programs. Also includes Federal and State
extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal Supplemental Benefits) and SUA (Special Unemployment
Assistance) programs.
' Covered workers who have completed at least 1 week of unemployment.
< Annual data are net amounts and monthly data are gross amounts.
5
Individuals receiving final payments in benefit year.
6
For total unemployment only.
7
Programs include Puerto Rican sugarcane workers for initial claims and insured unemployment beginning July 1963.
8
Latest data available for all programs combined. Workers ccvered by State programs account for abcut 92 percent of
the total.
Source: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration.
201
TABLE B-27.—Wage and salarv workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1929-75
(All employees; thousands of persons; monthly data seasonally adjusted)
Year or
month
Total
wage
and
salary
workers
Manufacturing
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Mining
Contract
construction
Transportation
and
public
utilities
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
Finance,
insurance,
and
real
estate
Services
Government
Federal
State
and
local
31, 339
10, 702
1,087
1,497
3,916
6,123
1,509
3,440
533
2,532
1933
23,711
7,397
744
809
2,672
4,755
1,295
2,873
565
2,601
1939
30, 618
10, 278
4,715
5,564
854
1,150
2,936
6,426
1,462
3,517
905
3,090
1940
1941.
1942
1943
1944
32, 376
36, 554
40, 125
42, 452
41, 883
10, 985
13, 192
15,280
17,602
17, 328
5,363
6,968
8,823
11,084
10, 856
5,622
6,225
6,458
6,518
6,472
925
957
992
925
892
1,294
1,790
2,170
1,567
1,094
3,038
3,274
3,460
3,647
3,829
6,750
7,210
7,118
6,982
7,058
1,502
1,549
1,538
1,502
1,476
3,681
3,921
4,084
4,148
4,163
996
1,340
2.213
2,905
2,928
3,206
3,320
3,270
3,174
3,116
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
40, 394
41, 674
43, 881
44, 891
43,778
15, 524
14,703
15, 545
15, 582
14, 441
9,074
7,742
8,385
8,326
7,489
6,450
6,962
7,159
7,256
6,953
836
862
955
994
930
1,132
1,661
1,982
2,169
2,165
3,906
4,061
4,166
4,189
4,001
7,314
8,376
8,955
9,272
9,264
1,497
1,697
1,754
1,829
1,857
4,241
4,719
5,050
5,206
5,264
2,808
2,254
1,892
1,863
1,908
3,137
3,341
3,582
3,787
3,948
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
45, 222
47, 849
48, 825
50, 232
49, 022
15, 241
16, 393
16,632
17, 549
16, 314
8,094
9,089
9,349
10, 110
9,129
7,147
7,304
7,284
7,438
7,185
901
929
898
866
791
2,333
2,603
2,634
2,623
2,612
4,034
4,226
4,248
4,290
4,084
9,386
9,742
10,004
10, 247
10, 235
1,919
1,991
2,069
2,146
2,234
5,382
5,576
5,730
5,867
6,002
1,928
2,302
2,420
2,305
2,188
4,098
4,087
4,188
4,340
4,563
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
50,675
52, 408
52, 894
51, 363
53, 313
16, 882
17, 243
17, 174
15,945
16,675
9,541
9,834
9,856
8,830
9,373
7,340
7,409
7,319
7,116
7,303
792
822
828
751
732
2,802
2,999
2,923
2,778
2,960
4,141
4,244
4,241
3,976
4,011
10, 535
10, 858
10, 886
10, 750
11,127
2,335
2,429
2,477
2,519
2,594
6,274
6,536
6,749
6,806
7,130
2,187
2,209
2,217
2,191
2,233
4,727
5,069
5,399
5,648
5,850
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
54, 234
54,042
55, 596
56, 702
58, 331
16, 796
16, 326
16, 853
16, 995
17, 274
9,459
9,070
9,480
9,616
9,816
7,336
7,256
7,373
7,380
7,458
712
672
650
635
634
2,885
2,816
2,902
2,963
3,050
4,004
3,903
3,906
3,903
3,951
11,391
11,337
11, 566
11,778
12, 160
2,669
2,731
2,800
2,877
2,957
7,423
7,664
8,028
8,325
8,709
2,270
2,279
2,340
2,358
2,348
6,083
6,315
6,550
6,868
7,248
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
60, 815
63, 955
65, 857
67, 951
70,442
18, 062
19, 214
19, 447
19,781
20, 167
10, 406
11, 284
11,439
11,626
11,895
7,656
7,930
8,008
8,155
8,272
632
627
613
606
619
3,186
3,275
3,208
3,306
3,525
4,036
4,151
4,261
4,311
4,435
12,716
13, 245
13,606
14, 099
14, 704
3,023 9,087
3,100 9,551
3,225 10, 099
3,381 10,622
3,562 11,228
2,378
2,564
2,719
2,737
2,758
7,696
8,227
8,679
9,109
9,444
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
70,920
71, 222
73, 714
76, 896
78, 413
19, 349
18, 572
19, 090
20, 068
20, 046
11, 195
10, 597
11,006
11,839
11,895
8,154
7,975
8,084
8,229
8,151
623
609
625
644
694
3,536
3,639
3,831
4,015
3,957
4,504
4,457
4,517
4,644
4,696
15, 040
15, 352
15, 975
16, 674
17,017
3,687
3,802
3,943
4,091
4,208
2,731
2,696
2,684
2,663
2,724
9,830
10, 192
10, 656
11,075
11,453
1975 P
7,668
18,344
10,676
7,668
745
3,455
4,499
16,950
4,222 13,997
1929
...
See footnotes at end of table.
202
11,621
11,903
12, 392
13, 021
13,617
2,748 12,023
TABLE B-27.—Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1929-75—Continued
[All employees; thousands of persons; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Year or
month
Total
wage
and
salary
workers
1973: Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
AprMay...
June..
TransFiporta- Whnlo
nance,
tion wnoiesale
insurtract
and
and
ance, Servana
conices
retail
struc- puband
lic
trade
tion
real
utiliestate
ties
Manufacturing
Government
Pnn
i/on-
Nnn
PI On-
Mining
Total
Durable
goods
75, 516
75,915
76, 159
76, 367
76, 569
76, 878
19, 717
19, 851
19,920
19,975
20, 010
20,085
11, 522 8,195
11,633 8,218
11,686 8,234
11,735 8,240
11,788 8,222
11,844 8,241
628
629
629
630
632
637
3,899
3,940
3,962
3,955
3,987
4,028
4,596
4,604
4,614
4,627
4,630
4,635
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
76, 940
77, 207
77, 366
77,673
77, 973
78,058
20,068
20, 116
20, 131
20,245
20, 324
20, 367
11,862
11,907
11,925
12, 001
12,058
12, 097
8,206
8,209
8,206
8,244
8,266
8,270
644
649
651
666
665
668
4,059
4,047
4,070
4,049
4064
4,080
1974: Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June--
78,068
78, 196
78,236
78,351
78,486
78,530
20,324
20,222
20, 185
20,209
20, 189
20,201
12,047
11,966
11,947
11,996
11,975
12,004
8,277
8,256
8,238
8,213
8,214
8,197
672
674
677
685
689
692
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct.__
Nov...
Dec...
78,648
78,733
78,830
78,790
78,374
77,723
20,202
20,134
20, 104
19,972
19,638
19, 190
12,024
11,962
11,943
11,870
11,656
11,357
8,178
8,172
8,161
8,102
7982
7,833
1975: Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May..
June..
77,319
76,804
76, 468
76,462
76,510
76,343
18,798
18,375
18,226
18, 155
18, 162
18,100
11,099
10,813
10,728
10,637
10,595
10,527
July...
Aug...
SeptOct...
Nov.
Dec*..
76,679
77,023
77, 310
77, 555
77, 558
77,798
18,084
18,254
18,417
18,493
18,471
18, 551
10,465
10,563
10, 650
10,661
10,643
10, 697
Federal
State
and
local
16, 382 4,018 12, 724
16,486 4,034 12, 788
16, 541 4,049 12, 829
16, 573 4,061 12, 887
16,626 4,072 12,919
16,673 4,081 12,985
2,671
2,661
2,662
2,660
2,664
2,655
10, 881
10,922
10, 953
10,999
11,029
11,099
4,639
4,658
4,670
4,690
4,686
4,682
16,689
16, 739
16, 776
16, 836
16, 894
16, 854
4,095
4,114
4,127
4,136
4,145
4,157
13,022
13, 100
13, 169
13, 208
13, 288
13, 310
2,626
2,651
2,659
2,662
2,671
2,682
11,098
11, 133
11,113
11, 181
11,236
11,258
4,064
4,116
4,089
4,049
4,029
3,969
4,710
4,721
4,711
4,707
4,704
4,700
16,864
16,875
16,898
16,933
17,009
17,038
4,172
4, 186
4,196
4,202
4,209
4,206
13,313
13,400
13, 453
13,488
13,559
13,608
2,681
2,696
2,699
2,705
2,713
2,721
11,268
11,306
11,328
11,373
11,385
11,395
698
701
708
728
722
686
3,913
3,938
3,902
3,872
3,826
3,770
4,695
4,703
4,683
4,686
4,683
4,659
17, 123
17, 135
17, 143
17, 154
17,058
16,935
4,206
4,217
4,224
4,228
4,226
4,229
13,656
13,696
13,767
13, 797
13,822
13,833
2,730
2,740
2,746
2,745
2742
2,738
11,425
11,469
11,553
11,608
11,657
11,683
7,699
7,562
7,498
7,518
7,567
7,573
723
724
729
732
738
741
3,749
3,592
3,467
3,441
3,439
3,392
4,603
4,565
4,506
4,508
4,491
4,469
16,903
16,879
16,851
16,847
16,857
16, 877
4,219
4,210
4,207
4,209
4,208
4,202
13,857
13,865
13,864
13,878
13,889
13,871
2,734
2,733
2,733
2,731
2,732
2,738
11,733
11,861
11,885
11,961
11,994
11,953
7,619
7,691
7,767
7,832
7,828
7,854
743
749
752
774
767
772
3,395
3,415
3,432
3,402
3,403
3,389
4,464
4,466
4,467
4,476
4,501
4,481
16,984
17,016
17,045
17,043
17, 020
17,096
4,203
4,218
4,239
4,246
4,248
4,259
13,990
14, 050
14,113
14, 157
14, 189
14, 251
2,745
2,756
2,765
2,767
2,761
2,758
12,071
12,099
12,080
12, 197
12, 198
12, 241
durable
goods
Note.—Data in Tables B-27 through B-29 are based on reports from employing establishments and relate to full- and
part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during, or received pay for, any part of
the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Not comparable with labor force data (Tables B-22 through B-25), which include proprietors, self-employed persons,
domestic servants, and unpaid family workers; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because
of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc.; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the
estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
For description and details of the various establishment data, see "Employment and Earnings."
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
203
TABLE B-28.—Average weekly hours and hourly earnings in selected private nonagricultural
industries, 1947-75
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Average gross hourly earnings,
current dollars
Average weekly hours
Year
or
month
ConTotal
private Manu- tract
nonag- factur- coning
strucricultion
tural i
Total
private Manu- Contract Retail
Retail non- facturcon- trade *
trade 2 agriing
struccultion
tural i
Adjusted hourly earnings,
total private nonagricultural 3
Index,
1967=100
Current
dollars
1967
dollars *
Percent
change
from
preceding
period'
Current
dollars
1967
dollars
40.3
40.0
39.4
40.4
40.0
39.1
38.2
38.1
37.7
40.3 $1. 131 $1. 217 $1. 541 $0. 838
40.2 1.225 1.328 1.713 .901
40.4 1.275 1.378 1.792 .951
42.6
46.0
48.2
63.7
63.8
67.5
8.0
4.8
0.2
5.8
39.8
39.9
39.9
39.6
39.1
40.5
40.6
40.7
40.5
39.6
37.4
38.1
38.9
37.9
37.2
40.4
40.4
39.8
39.1
39.2
1.335
1.45
1.52
1.61
1.65
1.440
1.56
1.65
1.74
1.78
1.863
2.02
2.13
2.28
2.39
.983
.06
.09
.16
.20
50.0
53.7
56.4
59.6
61.7
69.3
69.0
70.9
74.4
76.6
3.7
7.4
5.0
5.7
3.5
2.7
-.4
2.8
4.9
3.0
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
39.6
39.3
38.8
38.5
39.0
40.7
40.4
39.8
39.2
40.3
37.1
37.5
37.0
36.8
37.0
39.0
38.6
38.1
38.1
38.2
1.71
1.80
1.89
1.95
2.02
1.86
1.95
2.05
2.11
2.19
2.45
2.57
2.71
2.82
2.93
.25
.30
.37
.42
.47
63.7
67.0
70.3
73.2
75.8
79.4
82.3
83.4
84.5
86.8
3.2
5.2
4.9
4.1
3.6
3.7
3.7
1.3
1.3
2.7
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
38.6
38.6
38.7
38.8
38.7
39.7
39.8
40.4
40.5
40.7
36.7
36.9
37.0
37.3
37.2
38.0 2.09
37.6 2.14
37.4 2.22
37.3 2.28
37.0 2.36
2.26
2.32
2.39
2.46
2.53
3.08
3.20
3.31
3.41
3.55
.52
.56
.63
.68
.75
78.4
80.8
83.5
85.9
88.3
88.4
90.2
92.2
93.7
95.1
3.4
3.1
3.3
2.9
2.8
1.8
2.0
2.2
1.6
1.5
1965
1966 .
1967
1968
1969
38.8
38.6
38.0
37.8
37.7
41.2
41.3
40.6
40.7
40.6
37.4
37.6
37.7
37.3
37.9
36.6
35.9
35.3
34.7
34.2
2.45
2.56
2.68
2.85
3.04
2.61
2.72
2.83
3.01
3.19
3.70
3.89
4.11
4.41
4.79
.82
.91
2.01
2.16
2.30
91.6
95.4
100.0
106.3
113.3
97.0
98.1
100.0
102.0
103.2
3.7
4.1
4.8
6.3
6.6
2.0
1.1
1.9
2.0
1.2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974 .
1975 v
37.1
37.0
37.1
37.1
36.6
39.8
39.9
40.6
40.7
40.0
37.3
37.2
36.9
37.0
36.9
33.8
33.7
33.7
33.3
32.7
3.22
3.44
3.67
3.92
4.22
3.36
3.57
3.81
4.08
4.41
5.24
5.69
6.03
6.37
6.75
2.44
2.57
2.70
2.87
3.09
120.8
129.4
137.8
146.6
158.6
103.9
106.7
110.0
110.1
107.4
6.6
7.1
6.5
6.4
8.2
.7
2.7
3.1
.1
-2.5
36.1
39.4
36.6
32.4
4.54
4.81
7.24
3.33
172.6
107.1
8.8
-.3
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr . .
May
June
36.7
36.9
36.8
36.4
36.7
36.6
40.5
40.4
40.4
39.3
40.3
40.2
36.4
37.6
36.8
36.4
36.8
36.9
32.9 4.06
33.0 4.08
32.9 4.10
33.1 4.12
32.9 4.17
32.7 4.21
4.21
4.23
4.25
4.26
4.34
4.40
6.48
6.51
6.57
6.60
6.63
6.72
2.98
2.98
3.01
3.00
3.08
3.09
151.8
152.8
153.9
154.7
156.5
158.5
108.4
107.9
107.5
107.4
107.6
107.9
4.7
8.2
8.6
6.4
15.4
15.9
-8.0
-5.5
-3.8
-1.6
2.3
3.9
36.7
36.6
36.5
36.5
36.2
36.3
40.2
40.1
39.9
40.0
39.5
39.4
36.9
36.6
36.7
37.1
37.0
37.4
32.6 4.24
32.6 4.27
32.5 4.31
32.4 4.34
32.5 4.35
32.5 4.38
4.44
4.49
4.53
4.57
4.59
4.62
6.76
6.89
6.92
6.90
6.96
7.00
3.12
3.14
3.15
3.18
3.18
3.20
159.2
160.6
162.0
163.3
164.2
165.4
107.5
107.2
107.0
106.8
106.4
106.4
5.4
11.2
11.6
9.8
6.4
9.7
-4.8
-3.0
-3.0
-1.3
-4.8
-.1
36.2
36.1
35.9
35.9
35.9
36.0
39.2
38.8
38.9
39.1
39.0
39.3
37.2
36.8
34.9
36.8
36.9
35.7
32.4 4.41
32.3 4.43
32.5 4.46
32.3 4.47
32.5 4.49
32.4 4.51
4.65
4.68
4.72
4.73
4.75
4.78
7.03
6.98
7.18
7.18
7.16
7.27
3.23
3.26
3.27
3.29
3.31
3.32
166.3
167.8
169.1
169.4
170.6
172.2
106.3
106.6
107.2
106.8
107.1
107.3
6.3
11.4
9.7
2.6
8.5
12.2
-1.5
4.3
6.1
-4.5
4.0
2.4
36.0
36.2
36.1
36.2
36.3
36.5
39.4
39.7
39.8
39.8
39.9
40.3
36.2
36.7
36.7
36.6
36.8
37.5
32.2 4.54
32.3 4.57
32.2 4.60
32.3 4.63
32.5 4.67
32.4 4.67
4.82
4.86
4.88
4.90
4.93
4.95
7.33
7.30
7.32
7.32
7.38
7.38
3.34
3.37
3.38
3.41
3.42
3.41
173.1
174.6
175.2
176.7
178.0
178.0
106.6
107.4
107.3
107.5
107.5
107.0
6.3
11.1
4.1
10.8
8.9
.3
-7.3
8.9
-1.6
2.5
1947..
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
..
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov..
Dec
.
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept.....
Oct
Nov
Dec*
i Also includes other private industry groups shown in Table B-27.
* Includes eati ng and drinking places.
* Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and for interindustry employment shifts.
«Current dollar earnings index divided by the consumer price index.
* Monthly data are annual rates, computed from indexes to two decimal places.
Note.—See Note, Table B-27.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
204
-5!4
TABLE B-29.—Average weekly earnings in selected private nonagricultural industries, 1947-75
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Average spendable weekly earnings, total
private nonagricultural *
Average gross weekly earnings
Year or month
Total private
nonagricultural l
Current
dollars
1967
dollars >
Manu- Contract
facturing construction
Retail
trade »
Current dollars
Percent change from
preceding period 5
Amount
Current
dollars
1967
dollars '
Current
dollars
1967
dollars
$45.58
49.00
50.24
$68. 13
67.96
70.36
$49. 17
53.12
53.88
$58.87
65.27
67.56
$33.77
36.22
38.42
$44.64
48.51
49.74
$66.73
67.28
69.66
8.7
2.5
0.8
3.5
53.13
57.86
60.65
63.76
64.52
73.69
74.37
76.29
79.60
80.15
58.32
63.34
67.16
70.47
70.49
69.68
76.96
82.86
86.41
88.91
39.71
42.82
43.38
45.36
47.04
52.04
55.79
57.87
60.31
60.85
72.18
71.71
72.79
75.29
75.59
4.6
7.2
3.7
4.2
.9
T.5
3.4
.4
67.72
70.74
73.33
75.08
78.78
84.44
86.90
86.99
86.70
90.24
75.70
78.78
81.59
82.71
88.26
90.90
96.38
100. 27
103.78
108.41
48.75
50.18
52.20
54.10
56.15
63.41
65.82
67.71
69.11
71.86
79.06
80.86
80.32
79.80
82.31
4.2
3.8
2.9
2.1
4.0
4.6
2.3
-.7
-.6
3.1
80.67
82.60
85.91
88.46
91.33
90.95
92.19
94.82
96.47
98.31
89.72
92.34
96.56
99.63
102.97
113.04
118.08
122. 47
127. 19
132.06
57.76
58.66
60.96
62.66
64.75
72.96
74.48
76.99
78.56
82.57
82.25
83.13
84.98
85.67
88.88
1.5
2.1
3.4
2.0
5.1
-.1
1.1
2.2
.8
3.7
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
95.06
98.82
101.84
107.73
114.61
100.59
101.67
101.84
103.39
104.38
107. 53
112.34
114.90
122.51
129.51
138.38
146.26
154.95
164.49
181.54
66.61
68.57
70.95
74.95
78.66
86.30
88.66
90.86
95.28
99.99
91.32
91.21
90.86
91.44
91.07
4.5
2.7
2.5
4.9
4.9
-14
.6
-.4
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
119.46
127. 28
136. 16
145. 43
154. 45
102.72
104. 93
108.67
109. 26
104.57
133.73
142. 44
154.69
166. 06
176.40
195.45
211.67
222. 51
235. 69
249. 08
82.47
86.61
90.99
95.57
101. 04
104.61
112.41
121. 09
127. 41
134.37
89.95
92.67
96.64
95.73
90.97
4.6
7.5
7.7
5.2
5.5
-1.2
3.0
4.3
-.9
-5.0
1975 v
163.89
101.67
189.51
264.98
107.89
145.93
90.53
8.6
-.5
1974: Jan . .
Feb
149.00
150. 55
150.88
149.97
153.04
154.09
106.40
106.30
105.46
104. 15
105.20
104.96
170. 51
170.89
171.70
167.42
174.90
176.88
235.87
244.78
241.78
240.24
243.98
247.97
98.04
98.34
99.03
99.30
101.33
101.04
130. 16
131.36
131.61
130.91
133.28
134.09
92.94
92.75
91.99
90.91
91.62
91.34
«-3.4
11.6
2.3
-6.2
24.0
7.5
« -15.0
-2.4
-9.4
-13.2
9.8
-3.6
155.61
156.28
157.32
158. 41
157.47
158.99
105. 11
104. 37
103.85
103.64
102.07
102. 26
178.49
180.05
180.75
182. 80
181.31
182. 03
249.44
252. 17
253.96
255.99
257.52
261.80
101.71
102.36
102.38
103. 03
103.35
104. 00
135.26
135.78
136. 58
137.42
136.70
137.87
91.37
90.68
90.16
89.91
88.61
88.67
11.0
4.7
7.3
7.6
-6.1
10.8
.4
-8.7
-6.7
-3.3
-16.0
.8
159. 64
159.92
160. 11
160.47
161. 19
162.36
102.02
101.64
101. 48
101. 11
101.21
101. 16
182. 28
181.58
183. 61
184.94
185.25
187.85
261.52
256.86
250. 58
264.22
264. 20
259. 54
104.65
105.30
106.28
106.27
107. 58
107.57
138.38
138.59
138.73
139.00
146.00
146.91
88.43
88.08
87.93
87.58
91.67
91.53
«4.5
1.8
1.2
2.4
«7.9
7.7
• -3.2
-4.6
-2.0
-4.7
«2.9
-1.8
163.44
165.43
166.06
167.61
169.52
170.46
100.67
101.73
101.65
101.93
102.39
102.45
189.91
192.94
194.22
195.02
196.71
199.49
265.35
267.91
268.64
267.91
271.58
276.75
107.55
108.85
108.84
110.14
111.15
110.48
147.76
149. 31
149.81
151.02
152.48
153.20
91.01
91.82
91.70
91.84
92.09
92.08
7.2
13.3
4.1
10.1
12.2
5.8
-6.6
11.2
-1.6
1.8
3.3
-.1
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
. ...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
..
......
Mar
Apr
May .
June _ _ _ .
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
..
Dec
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec*
3.6
2.7
1 Also includes other private industry groups shown in Table B-27.
2 Earnings in current dollars divided by the consumer price index.
* Includes eating and drinking places.
4 Average gross weekly earnings less social security and income taxes for a worker with three dependents.
* Monthly data are annual rates.
«In annualizing the rates of change, the effect of the change in tax rates at the beginning of 1974 and 1975 and in May
1975 is taken into account separately.
Note.-See Note, Table B-27.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
205
597-578 O - 76 - 14
TABLE B-30.—Producthity and related data, private economy, 1947-75
[1967=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Output *
Year or quarter
Hours of 2all
persons
Output per
hour of all
persons
Compensation
per hour 3
Unit labor
costs
Implicit price
deflator*
Total Private
Total Private
Total Private
Total Private
Total Private
Total Private
non- private
nonnonnonnonnonprivate farm
farm private farm private farm private farm private farm
1947
1948
1949
46.7
48.9
48.8
45.5
47.6
47.5
89.3
89.8
86.9
78.4
79.5
76.5
52.3
54.5
56.2
58.1
59.9
62.0
35.8
39.0
39.7
38.0
41.4
42.7
68.5
71.5
70.6
65.4
69.1
68.8
65.2
69.6
68.9
62.6
66.7
67.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
53.4
56.7
58.5
61.1
60.3
52.1
55.6
57.4
60.0
59.1
88.1
90.6
90.7
91.6
88.6
79.1
82.5
83.3
85.3
82.5
60 6
62.6
64.5
66.7
68.0
65.8
67.4
68.9
70.3
71.6
42.3
46.4
49.4
52.6
54.3
45.0
49.0
51.7
54.6
56.4
69.9
74.2
76.6
78.8
79.8
68.3
72.7
75.0
77.7
78.7
70.0
75.2
76.1
77.0
77.9
68.5
73.1
74.4
76.1
77.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
64.9
66.3
67.3
67.0
71.5
63.7
65.2
66.4
65.9
70.7
92.2
93.8
92.5
88.7
91.8
86.1
88.4
88.0
84.7
88.0
70.4
70.7
72.8
75.6
77.9
74.0
73.8
75.5
77.8
80.3
55.6
59.2
63.0
65.8
68.9
58.3
61.8
65.3
67.7
70.8
79.0
83.7
86.5
87.0
88.4
78.8
83.7
86.5
87. C
88.2
79.1
81.6
84.3
85.5
87.1
78.9
81.4
84.3
85.1
87.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
73 0
74.6
79 1
82.4
86.9
72.1
73.7
78.4
81.8
86.5
92.5
91.1
92 6
93.2
94.6
89.1
88.1
90.0
91.1
93.0
79.0
81.9
85.5
88.4
91.9
80.9
83.7
87.1
89.8
93.0
71.6
74.3
77.8
80.7
85.1
73.6
76.1
79.3
82.1
86.0
90.6
90.7
91.0
91.3
92.6
91.0
91.0
91.0
91.4
92.5
88.5
89.1
90 5
91.5
92.5
88.4
89.1
90.4
91.6
92.7
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
92.3
97.8
100.0
104.5
107.2
92.0
97.8
100.0
104.7
107.5
97.5
99.7
100.0
101.7
104.3
96.4
99.5
100.0
102.0
105.2
94.6
98.0
100.0
102.7
102.8
95.4
98.4
100.0
102.6
102.2
88.5
94.7
100.0
107.7
115.4
89.1
94.6
100.0
107.4
114.6
93.5
96.6
100.0
104.8
112.3
93.4
96.2
100.0
104.7
112.1
94.4
97.3
100.0
104.1
109.2
94.3
97.0
100.0
104.1
109.1
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
106.8
110.2
117.4
124.3
121.5
106.9
110.2
117.7
124.7
122.0
102.8
102.4
105.6
109.3
109.6
104.0
103.6
107.0
111.1
111.5
103.9
107.7
111.2
113.7
110.8
1C2.8
106.4
110.0
112.2
109.5
123.6
132.1
140.0
151.4
165.8
122.4
130.7
138.8
149.6
163.9
119.0
122.6
125.9
133.2
149.6
119.0
122.9
126.2
133.4
149.7
114.3
119.6
123.8
130.8
143.4
114.4
119.8
123.5
128.6
141.6
1975 »
118.5
118.5
105.5
107.2
112.3
110.5
180.9
178.5
161.1
161.6
156.7
155.6
1973: 1
II
III
IV
123.6
123.7
124.6
125.0
123.9
124.2
125.3
125.3
108.1
109.3
110.0
110.5
109.9
111.1
111.8
112.4
114.4
113.2
113.3
113.2
112.8
111.7
112.0
111.6
147.6
149.5
152.1
155.5
145.7
147.7
150.4
153.8
129.1
132.1
139.2
137.4
129.1
132.2
134.2
137.8
127.2
129.4
131.8
134.6
125.9
127.5
129.1
132.0
1974: 1
II ...
Ill
IV ....
123 3
122.5
121.6
118.7
123.9
123.0
122.2
119.1
110.4
110.3
110.1
108.5
111.9
112.2
112.1
110.3
111.7
111.0
110.5
109.4
110.7
109.7
109.0
108.0
158.4
163.4
168.2
172.1
157.0
161.5
165.9
170.2
141.8
147.1
152.2
157.3
141.9
147.2
152.2
157.6
137.5
141.0
145.4
150.1
134.7
139.6
144.0
148.6
1975: 1
II
III
IV P
115.6
116.5
120.1
121.9
115.5
116.7
120.0
121.8
105.3
104.6
105.3
106.6
107.2
106.3
106.8
108.5
109.8
111.4
114.0
114.3
107.7
109.8
112.3
112.2
176.6
179.3
182.3
185.6
173.9
176.8
180.6
183.3
160.9
161.0
159.8
162.4
161.5
161.0
160.8
163.3
153.5
155.1
157.8
160.3
152.8
154.1
156.4
159.0
1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also
includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed.
* Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
206
TABLE B-31.—Changes in productivity and related data, private economy, 1948-75
(Percent change from preceding period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Hours of
all persons 2
Output i
Year or quarter
Total
rivate
1948
1949
rivate
non- Total
rivate
farm
rivate
nonfarm
utput per hour
of all persons
Compensation
per hours
Total Private
nonrivate farm
Total Private
Total Private
Total Private
non- private
nonnonrivate farm
farm private farm
Unit labor
costs
Implicit price
deflator <
4.7
-.3
4.5
-.3
0.5
-3.2
1.3
-3.7
4.1
3.0
3.1
3.6
8.7
1.8
8.9
3.1
4.4
-1.2
5.6
6.8
-.9
6.6
1.0
9.5
6.2
3.1
4.6
-1.4
9.7
6.8
3.2
4.6
-1.6
1.5
2.8
.1
1.1
-3.3
3.4
4.3
.9
2.4
-3.3
7.9
3.3
3.0
3.5
2.0
6.1
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.8
6.7
9.8
6.3
6.5
3.3
5.5
8.8
5.5
5.7
3.2
-1.1
6.3
3.2
2.9
1.3
-.6
6.3
3.2
3.6
1.3
1.5
7.5
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.7
6.8
1.7
2.2
1.6
7.7
2.1
1.6
-.5
6.7
7.9
2.2
1.9
4.4
2.6
-^3*. 7
3.9
3.5
.4
3.0
3.8
3.1
3.4
7.3
4.0
1.7
-1.3
-4.1
3.5
"2! 3
3.1
3.2
2.4
6.4
6.5
4.4
4.8
3.5
5.9
5.7
3.7
4.6
-1.0
6.0
3.4
.5
1.6
6*. 2
3.4
.6
1.3
1.6
3.1
3.4
1.3
1.9
2.1
3.2
3.5
1.0
2.2
2.1
2.2
6.1
4.2
5.5
2.0
2.3
6.4
4.3
5.8
.8
-1.5
1.6
.7
1.5
1.3
-1.1
2.1
1.2
2.1
1.3
3.8
4.4
3.5
3.9
3'. 4
4.1
3.1
3.6
3.8
3.8
4.7
3.8
5.4
3.9
3.3
4.2
3.6
4.8
2.5
.1
'.3
1.4
3.2
-.1
.0
.5
1.2
1.5
.7
1.6
1.1
1.1
1.6
.8
1.5
1.3
1.3
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
6.2
5.9
2.3
4.5
2.6
6.3
6.4
2.2
4.7
2.7
3.1
2.2
3.6
3.2
.5
2.0
3.1
3.0
3.6
2.0
2.7
.1
2.6
3.1
1.7
2.6
4.0
7.0
5.6
7.7
7.2
3.6
6.2
5.7
7.4
6.7
1.0
3.3
3.5
4.8
7.1
1.0
3.0
3.9
4.7
7.1
2.0
3.1
2.8
4.1
4.9
1.7
2.8
3.1
4.1
4.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
-.4
3.2
6.5
5.9
-2.2
-.5 -1.4
3.1
-.5
6.8
3.1
5.9
3.6
-2.1
-1.1
1.1
3.7
3.2
2.2
-2.5
.6
3.4
3.4
2.0
-2.4
7.1
6.8
6.0
8.2
9.5
6.8
6.8
6.2
7.8
9.5
6.0
3.1
2.7
5.8
12.3
6.1
3.3
2.7
5.7
12.2
4.7
4.6
3.5
5.6
9.7
4.9
4.7
3.1
4.2
10.1
1975*
1973: |
II
III
IV
-2.5
-2.9
-3.8
1.3
.9
9.1
8.9
7.7
8.0
9.3
9.9
6.1
4.5
2.6
1.8
4.8
-4.1
.3
-.4
2.8
-3.6
1.1
-1.7
13.6
5.2
6.9
9.4
11.4
5.9
7.3
9.3
8.4
9.7
6.6
9.8
8.4
9.9
6.2
11.2
6.2
7.3
7.6
8.6
4.2
5.1
5.1
9.3
1974:1
II
Ill
IV
-5.6
-2.5
-2.9
-9.1
-1.6
l.(
-5.1
-2.3
-2.0
-3.7
7.7
13.1
12.4
9.7
8.8
11.8
11.6
10.7
13.6
15.8
14.7
13.9
12.3
15.9
14.3
15.0
8.9
10.6
13.1
13.8
8.5
15.2
13.2
13.4
1975:1
II
Ill
IV*.—
-10.2 -11.7
4.4
3.2
13.1 11.7
6.1
6.2
-3.1
-3.6
-2.4
-3.8
_ <j
10.7
6.4
6.7
7.5
9.1
6.8
8.7
6.1
9.4
.4
-2.9
6.5
10.1
-1.1
9.1
4.2
7.4
6.3
11.9
3.5
6.2
6.9
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
.
.. .
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 .
1962
1963
1964
. .
10.0
3
3.0
1.3
9.1
3.7
.1
l'.7
2.5
-3.7
5.0
4.5
2.7
1.7
__ F
-2'. 6 — . I
-2.7
-.9
-9.7 -5.6
-ii.;
1'.3
3.8
.3
-6J
-10.9
-3.4
~2'.9
2.1
5.1
6.6
1.2
6.0
9.9
1.0
sic
9.4
1
6!5
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers.
Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also
includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed.
< Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
Note.—Percent changes are based on original data and therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on
indexes in Table B-30.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
207
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
TABLE E-32.—Industrial production indexes, major industry divisions, 1929-75
[1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Total
industrial
production
Year or month
Manufacturing
Mining
Durable
Total
Utilities
Nondurable
1929
21.6
22.8
22.6
23.0
44.4
7.2
1933
13.7
14.0
9.1
19.7
31.5
6.5
1939
21.7
21.5
17.8
25.9
43.4
10.4
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946....
1947
1948
1949
25.0
31.6
36.3
44.0
47.4
40.6
35.0
39.4
41.0
38.8
25.4
32.4
37.8
47.0
50.9
42.6
35.3
39.4
40.9
38.7
23.7
31.6
40.1
54.5
60.2
45.5
31.8
37.9
39.5
35.9
27.2
32.9
34.3
3«.7
38.2
38.1
39.3
40.9
42.2
41.5
48.2
51.2
52.8
54.0
57.9
56.8
55.8
63.1
66.3
58.8
11.5
13.0
14.6
16.1
17.1
17.4
18.1
19.6
21.9
23.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954.....
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
44.9
48.7
50.6
54.8
51.9
58.5
61.1
61.9
57.9
64.8
45.0
48.6
50.6
55.1
51.5
58.2
60.5
61.2
56.9
64.1
43.7
49.2
52.2
59.0
52.0
59.5
61.5
61.9
54.2
62.2
46.2
47.8
48.7
50.7
51.0
56.6
59.5
60.5
61.0
67.0
65.7
72.1
71.5
73.4
71.9
80.2
84.4
84.5
77.5
81.1
26.5
30.3
32.8
35.6
38.3
42.8
47.0
50.2
52.5
57.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
66.2
66.7
72.2
76.5
81.7
89.2
97.9
100.0
105.7
110.7
65.4
65.6
71.4
75.8
81.2
89.1
98.3
100.0
105.7
110.5
63.3
62.1
69.0
73.5
79.0
88.5
99.0
100.0
105.5
110.0
68.6
70.7
75.1
79.2
84.4
90.0
97.3
100.0
106.0
111.1
82.7
83.2
85.6
89.0
91.1
93.9
98.4
100.0
103.9
107.2
61.8
65.3
70.2
75.1
81.9
86.9
93.6
100.0
109.4
119.5
1970
1971
1972.
1973
1974
1975 *_
106.6
106.8
115.2
125.6
124.8
113.8
105.2
105.2
114.0
125.1
124.4
112.2
101.4
99.4
108.4
122.0
120.7
105.9
110.6
113.5
122.1
129.7
129.7
121.3
109.7
107.0
108.8
110.3
109.3
106.4
128.3
133.9
143.4
152.6
149.9
154.6
125.4
124.6
124.7
124.9
125.7
125.8
125.3
124.5
124.6
124.8
125.7
125.6
121.0
119.4
120.4
120.7
122.1
122.1
131.4
131.5
131.0
130.4
130.9
130.7
109.9
111.7
112.2
111.3
111.0
110.2
144.9
146.1
146.5
148.7
149.1
150.6
125.5
125.2
125.6
124.8
121.
117.4
125.2
125.2
125.5
124.6
120.9
116.1
121.6
121.6
122.1
121.6
117.9
112.2
130.8
130.4
130.5
128.9
125.4
121.9
110.2
107.3
109.2
110.5
105.0
104.4
152.4
152.7
153.1
151.2
152.3
152.6
113.
111.2
110.0
109.9
110.
111.1
111.8
109.3
107.7
107.9
108.2
109.5
108.2
104.8
103.5
103.3
102.5
103.2
117.2
115.6
113.7
114.8
116.2
118.6
107.0
108.6
108.9
108.5
105.9
106.3
152.1
150.9
154.1
153.1
152.3
152.6
112.
114.
116.
116.
117.
118.
110.6
112.8
114.7
115.6
116.3
117.5
103.4
105.4
107.0
107."
108.0
109.3
120.8
123.4
125.7
127.0
12*. 3
129.5
106.4
105.0
105.3
105.8
105.4
103.7
153.9
156.6
154.1
156.6
156.0
157.9
_
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
,
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
_
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov*
Dec*
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
208
TABLE B—33.—Industrial production indexes, market groupings, 1947—75
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Final products
Year or
month
Total
industrial
production
Consumer goods 1
Total
Total
Materials 2
Equipment
Automotive
products
Home
goods
Total
Business
Intermediate
products
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
1947
1948
1949 .
39.4
41.0
38.8
38.3
39.7
38.5
42.7
44.0
43.8
47.8
50.0
49.6
39.1
40.8
37.7
29.7
31.2
27.9
38.0
39.5
34.5
42.5
44.9
42.6
39.7
41.4
37.8
39.1
40.2
36.0
38.8
40.9
37.8
1950
1951
1952
1953 .. .
1954
44.9
48.7
50.6
54.8
51.9
43.4
46.8
50.3
53.7
50.8
50.0
49.5
50.6
53.7
53.3
62.4
55.2
49.7
62.8
58.4
52.0
44.8
44.8
50.7
46.8
30.2
42.1
50.5
54.7
47.9
37.0
45.2
51.2
53.2
46.8
49.6
52.0
51.7
55.3
55.1
45.2
50.0
50.7
56.3
52.0
45.3
51.6
52.7
61.5
53.1
43.6
47.1
47.3
50.2
50.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
58.5
61.1
61.9
57.9
64.8
54.9
58.2
59.9
57.1
62.7
59.5
61.7
63.2
62.6
68.7
77.7
63.9
66.9
53.2
66.8
55.2
58.1
56.8
53.6
61.6
48.9
53.7
55.9
50.0
54.9
50.7
58.7
61.0
51.5
57.9
62.6
65.3
65.3
63.9
70.5
61.5
63.1
63.1
56.8
65.5
65.0
65.2
65.1
54.8
65.3
56.9
59.5
59.3
58.1
65.0
1960 ..
1961.
1962 .
1963
1964 .
66.2
66.7
72.2
76.5
81.7
64.8
65.3
70.8
74.9
79.6
71.3
72.8
77.7
82.0
86.8
76.4
69.8
84.5
92.5
96.8
62.0
63.9
69.4
74.9
81.7
56.4
55.6
61.9
65.6
70.1
59.4
57.7
62.7
65.8
74.7
71.0
72.4
76.9
81.1
87.3
66.4
66.4
72.4
77.0
82.6
66.1
64.6
71.8
76.6
82.7
65.9
68.2
72.9
77.1
82.1
1965
1966 ..
1967
1968 ..
1969
89.2
97.9
100.0
105.7
110.7
86.8
96.1
100.0
105.8
109.0
93.0
98.6
100.0
106.6
111.1
112.3
108.8
100.0
117.9
117.4
91.4
100.7
100.0
106.9
111.6
78.7
93.0
100.0
104.7
106.1
84.4
98.8
100.0
103.4
107.9
93.0
99.2
100.0
105.7
112.0
91.0
99.8
100.0
105.7
112.4
93.0
103.0
100.0
105.0
112.2
88.5
96.3
100.0
106.9
112.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
106.6
106.8
115.2
125.6
124.8
104.5
104.7
111.9
121.3
121.7
110.3
115.7
123.6
131.7
128.8
99.9
119.5
127.7
136.6
110.0
107.6
112.6
124.5
140.1
138.0
96.3
89.4
95.5
106.7
111.7
101.4
96.8
106.1
122.6
129.4
111.7
112.5
121.1
131.0
128.3
107.7
107.4
117.4
129.3
127.4
103.2
101.7
113.5
130.0
127.3
112.5
114.1
122.5
129.2
128.5
1975 P.
113.8
115.5
124.0
99.0
120.2
103.6
116.6
116.3
110.7
106.7
114.9
1974: Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June-
125.4
124.6
124.7
124.9
125.7
125.8
121.3
120.6
121.0
120.7
122.4
122.5
129.2
128.3
128.5
128.5
129.6
130.3
108.0
106.6
108.0
113.8
116.1
117.3
139.6
137.5
140.1
140.6
142.4
142.7
109.8
109.9
110.1
110.1
112.2
112.0
126.8
127.3
127.6
127.9
130.3
130.2
129.2
129.1
128.1
129.4
129.2
128.9
129.7
128.3
128.9
128.7
129.1
128.8
129.8
127.3
127.2
127.3
128.3
127.6
131.1
131.1
131.9
131.9
130.9
131.3
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct..
Nov...
Dec...
125.5
125.2
125.6
124.8
121.7
117.4
122.8
122.1
122.6
122.3
120.9
118.2
130.0
129.8
128.8
128.2
126.3
123.4
113.5
114.9
111.6
114.7
102.1
87.5
141.8
141.2
139.0
133.2
129.7
123.0
113.0
111.4
113.8
114.0
113.2
110.7
131.3
128.8
132.3
132.0
131.0
127.1
127.8
128.6
127.6
125.3
123.0
120.5
128.0
128.5
129.3
128.1
122.1
114.8
1?5.8
128.1
129.2
129.3
123.5
114.2
131.1
130.4
129.3
126.8
122.1
116.2
1975: Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
113.7
111.2
110.1
109.9
110.0
111.1
114.9
113.4
112.2
112.6
113.7
114.5
120.1
118.9
118.2
119.7
121.2
123.3
80.3
78.2
86.8
93.6
97.6
103.4
117.5
114.0
112.3
115.9
117.8
118.8
107.8
105.3
103.9
103.0
1C2.9
102.2
122.3
119.3
117.0
115.4
115.0
113.9
117.6
115.1
112.7
113.4
112.4
112.8
110.5
107.4
105.9
105.2
104.9
1C6.0
110.3
1C7.0
104.7
101.6
100.2
99.8
109.2
105.7
105.3
107.9
109.5
112.3
July-
112.2
114.2
116.2
116.7
117.3
118.5
115.7
115.9
116.9
116.9
117.6
118.6
125.5
125.7
126.8
127.2
128.3
129.6
106.9
105.9
106.7
108.9
109.2
110.2
121.0
121.9
125.0
123.4
123.9
125.6
102.2
102.3
102.8
102.6
102.7
103.3
113.9
114.9
115.6
115.5
116.2
117.2
114.3
115.4
116.6
117.2
118.4
120.0
106.8
111.5
115.1
116.4
116.7
117.9
100.3
106.1
108.7
110.4
111.0
113.1
114.0
118.3
123.4
124.4
124.5
125.6
...
..
.
Sept"..
NovT
Dec v.
1
Also includes clothing and consumer staples, not shown separately.
2 Also includes industrial fuel and power, not shown separately.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
209
TABLE B-34.—Industrial production indexes, selected manufactures, 1947-75
11967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
OrdTransnance,
porta- Instru- private
Mation
and
chinery equipments
government
ment
Lumber,
clay,
and
glass
FurniTexPaper
ture
tiles,
and apparel, and
printmiscel- and
ing
laneous leather
Chemicals,
petro- Foods
leum,
and
and tobtcco
rubber
Primary
metals
Fabricated
metal
products
64.8
67.4
56.7
50.2
51.1
46.1
31.0
33.9
34.0
24.5
25.2
22.5
7.8
9.0
9.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
71.4
77.7
70.9
80.4
65.0
56.5
60.4
58.9
66.5
59.9
41.7
40.7
45.4
52.8
66.2
57.6
26.1
30.0
35.7
39.2
39.6
11.4
42.2
52.0
63 2
48.4
64.7
53.7
65.7
52.2
35.4
63.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
84.5
84.0
80.4
63.8
74.5
68.3
69.3
71.1
63.7
71.5
46.7
52.2
52.0
45.4
53.9
66.3
64.3
68.9
54.3
61.5
44.2
48.5
50.7
47.7
55.2
36.1
31.8
35.9
44.4
46.1
73.8
75.9
73.3
71.4
82.2
65.8
68.7
67.1
62.1
68.7
73.4
75.1
73.4
71.8
79.6
57.8
61.5
62.2
61.5
67.0
41.2
43.5
45.8
46.5
53.8
66.6
70.3
71.5
73.6
77.2
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
74.2
72.9
78.2
84.3
95.7
71.6
69.8
75.9
78.4
83.3
56.2
57.1
64.8
67.9
74.3
63.7
59.9
69.3
75.9
79.6
57.8
57.3
59.8
66.4
71.3
46.4
39.2
45.0
51.6
50.7
78.5
79.7
84.3
88.9
94.0
69.7
70.6
76.1
79.5
84.7
79.2
80.2
84.3
86.9
91.9
69.2
71.0
74.3
78.4
84.5
55.6
58.3
64.5
70.0
75.9
79.2
81.5
84.0
87.0
90.6
104.0
108.8
100.0
103.2
114.1
92.6
100.5
100.0
106.3
113.6
84.1
98.6
100.0
101.9
106.8
91.3
101.2
100.0
109.7
107.6
82.9
95.3
100.0
106.7
116.1
60.5
75.1
100.0
113.7
111.6
98.7
102.6
100.0
105.6
111.1
93.8
100.8
100.0
106.2
111.6
97.8
101.7
100.0
104.9
105.9
90.5
98.9
100.0
104.2
109.1
83.8
94.1
100.0
109.6
118.4
92.6
97.0
100.0
103.6
107.5
106.9
100.9
113.1
127.0
124.1
109.4
107.4
114.8
130.5
131.4
100.3
96.2
107.5
125.8
128.1
90.4
92.9
99.0
109.1
96.9
110.8
108.5
120.2
138.3
143.9
95.3
86.1
86.0
85.7
86.1
106.3
111.5
120.0
129.1
123.6
108.8
111.7
122.7
135.1
136.1
100.2
100.7
108.1
115.0
108.9
107.8
107.8
116.1
122.2
121.0
118.2
124.7
137.8
149.3
151.7
110.8
113.7
117.6
121.9
124.8
Year or
month
1947
1948
1949
.
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
.
1970
1971
1972
1973..
1974..
98.2
114,7
112.9
88.4
133.7
85.2
109.4
121.6
97.8
109.6
140.3
124.4
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
129.5
125.0
125.3
124.0
124.6
124.7
131.4
130.6
131.6
131.3
131.9
132.5
128.6
127.2
128.4
128.2
129.7
130.4
95.7
93.9
95.0
97.8
100.6
99.4
143.0
142.8
142.8
143.8
146.1
147.5
85.2
84.2
84.9
84.3
86.1
86.4
129.7
127.4
128.1
128.9
128.0
126.4
133.4
135.2
136.8
136.8
138.9
138.5
116.2
115.3
112.4
109.3
109.8
108.5
121.7
122.2
122.5
121.2
121.3
122.3
151.5
151.2
151.2
153.5
153.0
153.8
125.4
126.2
125.3
124.3
126.5
125.3
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
123.2
121.9
123.0
126.0
121.0
108.6
131.1
131.6
132.0
129.6
128.2
124.1
129.9
130.5
132.5
131.1
128.9
124.8
98.7
99.9
100.4
102.1
93.7
83.6
146.7
146.7
144.9
142.0
142.3
139.5
87.2
87.1
87.5
87.2
86.6
86.6
125.5 139.7
123.4 140.1
120.6 138.8
117.8
136.7
113.7 J29.0
128.4
111.0
108.1
107.4
106.5
105.1
101.9
96.3
122.4
121.0
122.7
120.8
115.7
112.3
153.9
154.4
154.7
152.4
146.5
141.6
124.8
124.8
124.3
123.7
123.8
123.5
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
107.2
102.1
98.1
95.0
89.9
91.8
118.2
113.7
112.9
112.4
110.9
110.9
119.6
115.6
112.2
110.8
109.0
108.2
78.9
77.1
81.0
84.7
87.6
90.5
139.1
134.2
130.6
131.1
129.7
131.0
86.2
86.9
86.7
86.7
86.7
87.7
109.6
104.6
102.6
104.8
10 \ 9
107.0
120.0
119.6
118.7
117.6
119.7
120.1
88.9
89.6
87.5
90.4
93.2
94.9
108.2
106.6
104.2
102.4
103.9
107.3
136.5
132.4
130.2
131.0
132.4
136.2
121.1
121.3
120.0
122.5
122.4
123.5
92.8
96.5
97.2
98.0
101.0
102.6
109.7
112.7
116.1
115.9
116.2
117.4
108.4
110.0
111.7
112.9
113.6
114.8
91.0
92.9
94.3
94.7
94.1
95.9
132.4
132.1
134.5
134.7
137.2
137.9
86.4
84.3
84.2
83.9
81.6
80.9
108.2
110.6
113.1
114.3
1W.1
114.7
121.1
123.1
124.3
124.6
122.9
125.2
97.4
100.2
104.0
106.0
107.6
109.5
107.4
110.8
113.9
114.6
114.9
116.3
140.1
143.6
146.2
148.3
149.7
151.1
124.8
125.2
126.0
126.1
127.5
127.9
1975 P
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
NOVP
Dec?
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
210
TABLE B-35.—Capacity utilization rate in manufacturing, 1947-75
[Percent; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
FRB seriesl
Year or
quarter
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
AdTotal
manu- Primary
proc- vanced
procfacturing essing essing
92.7
82.7
88.0
86.9
84.1
75.0
80.7
79.9
78.2
81.8
84.0
87.9
80.3
77.3
81.1
82.5
84.2
87.8
91.8
89.1
88.1
85.4
76.5
72.7
75.4
79.4
76.0
80.8
79.8
78.3
74.2
91.1
92.1
85.7
86.8
88.5
81.5
79.3
84.6
89.7
84.4
83.5
82.4
81.7
78.5
75.0
75.6
74.7
74.6
75.6
77.9
79.4
81.5
82.8
83.3
83.3
82.6
80.5
80.1
79.4
75.7
79.4
81.1
78.0
78.6
80.8
83.5
85.9
88.3
89.6
90.1
90.0
89.0
87.3
86.3
85.1
79.0
68.2
67.0
69.0
68.9
67.2
70.6
90.0
88.2
84.5
75.1
81.4
80.1
77.6
81.4
83.0
85.5
. ..
1970...
1971
1972
1973...
1974
1970: 1
II....
III...
IV....
1971: 1
II....
III...
IV....
1972: 1
II....
III...
IV....
1973: 1
II.-.
III...
IV....
1974: 1
II....
III...
IV....
1975: IP...
II P...
Illp-
88.9
91.9
87.9
87.7
86.5
78.3
75.0
78.6
83.0
78.9
Total
manufacturing
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
PriAdmary- vancedprocprocessed essed
goods goods
89.8
82.1
88.8
92.5
93.7
96.1
84.7
98.1
83.8
97.8
100.1
91.2
94.3
~82.9
93.7
90.7
85.2
75.2
82.7
92.0
95.1
92.8
95.5
84.1
Wharton series3
Commerce series a
79.3
78.4
76.5
71.9
72.7
72.7
72.9
72.4
72.9
74.9
75.9
77.8
79.1
79.7
79.7
79.2
76.9
76.8
76.3
73.9
67.9
66.9
68.2
-j
Total
manufacturing
Durable
goods
95.2
92.4
81.3
89.5
90.6
88.5
92.3
82.9
94.5
90.2
75.2
96.1
95.1
89.1
85.3
87.7
86.2
92.9
79.4
95.1
94.5
91.8
91.4
87.9
89.2
87.8
84.9
70.1
78.0
93.2
92.7
89.0
84.7
88.4
76.8
72.9
78.0
80.1
83.8
90.5
96.8
92.4
94.1
95.2
85.2
81.7
86.8
95.3
90.4
88.0
87.6
86.1
79.0
86.2
84.8
86.0
86.7
88.7
90.9
94.3
93.1
95.2
96.3
92.1
90.9
94.2
96.7
92.9
93.7
92.8
91.7
90.1
81.9
82.7
81.2
81.0
82.5
85.6
87.7
91.3
93.9
95.7
96.0
95.5
91.5
92.0
91.5
86.6
90.4
90.8
91.0
91.2
92.2
93.7
94.9
95.8
96.7
96.6
97.0
96.3
95.2
94.1
93.2
88.9
76.4
74.7
76.3
81.5
81.3
85.1
90.8
89.8
86.5
75.9
82.2
80.5
77.7
81.2
82.8
85.7
90.6
95.8
92.7
94.5
95.6
87.9
85.3
89.6
95.8
91.3
88
87
83
84
84
85
86
85
86
86
89
88
87
86
87
85
85
83
84
84
78
78
82
85
82
83
83
85
86
84
83
82
85
89
85
79
80
82
84
82
79
81
75
78
85
83
83
82
84
82
82
82
80
81
77
79
80
81
80
80
82
82
83
85
86
86
85
85
78
79
77
78
80
81
82
85
83
84
84
82
84
84
85
85
82
83
80
81
82
83
85
88
79
80
80
79
82
81
82
84
86
86
85
84
88
89
89
89
85
85
83
82
84
84
84
78
83
84
84
76
86
86
86
86
85
85
84
80
87
87
86
79
83
83
83
77
90.3
89.6
88.3
83.3
85.2
85.8
85.0
85.0
86.3
88.7
90.5
93.0
95.0
96.1
96.4
95.8
92.9
92.8
92.1
87.5
75
75
79
74
73
78
76
78
80
75
73
78
75
76
79
78.3
77.2
79.6
86
86
84
85
85
81
80
83
86
83
82
82
79
80
Nondurable
goods
1 For description of the series, see Federal Reserve Bulletin, October 1971 and November 19660
2 Quarterly data are for last month in quarter. Annual data are averages of the four indexes, except for 1985 (December
index) and 1966-67 (averages of June and December indexes). For descri ption of the series, see Survey of Current Business'
July 1974.
3 Annual data are averages of quarterly indexes. For description of the series, see F. Gerard Adams and Robert Summers, "The Wharton Index of Capacity Utilization: A Ten Year Perspective," 1973 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis),
and Wharton School of Finance.
211
TABLE B*-36.—New construction activity, 1929-75
[Value put in place, billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Private construction
Year or month
Total
new
construction
Residential
buildings^
Total
Total >
Public construction
Nonresidential buildings and other
construction *
New
housing
units
Total
Commercial'
Industrial
Total
Federal
Other*
State
and
local*
1929
10.8
8.3
3.6
3.0
4.7
1.1
0.9
2.6
2.5
0.2
1933
2.9
1.2
.5
.3
.8
.1
.2
.5
1.6
.5
1.1
1939
8.2
4.4
2.7
2.3
1.7
.3
.3
1.2
3.8
.8
3.1
1940. . ..
1941
1942. ..
1943
1944
8.7
12.0
14.1
8.3
5.3
5.1
6.2
3.4
2.0
2.2
3.0
3.5
1.7
.9
.8
2.6
3.0
1.4
.3
.4
.2
.0
.1
.4
.8
.3
'.2
1.3
1.5
1.2
.9
1.1
3.6
5.8
10.7
6.3
3.1
1.2
3.8
9.3
5.6
2.5
2.4
2.0
1.3
!e
2.1
2.7
1.7
1.1
1.4
1945
1946
New series
5.8
14.3
3.4
12.1
1.3
6.2
.7
4.8
2.1
5.8
.2
1.2
.6
1.7
1.3
3.0
2.4
2.2
1.7
.9
l!4
1947
1948
1949
20.0
26.1
26.7
16.7
21.4
20.5
9.9
13.1
12.4
7.8
10.5
10.0
6.9
8.2
8.0
1.0
1.4
1.2
1.7
1.4
1.0
4.2
5.5
5.9
3.3
4.7
6.3
.8
1.2
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.8
1950 ..
1951
1952 .
1953
1954 .
33.6
35.4
36.8
39.1
41.4
26.7
26.2
26.0
27.9
29.7
18.1
15.9
15.8
16.6
18.2
15.6
13.2
12.9
13.4
14.9
8.6
10.3
10.2
11.3
11.5
1.4
1.5
1.1
1.8
2.2
1.1
2.1
2.3
2.2
2.0
6.1
6.7
6.8
7.3
7.2
6.9
9.3
10.8
11.2
11.7
1.6
3.0
4.2
4.1
3.4
5.2
6.3
6.6
7.1
8.3
1955 ..
1956
1957 ..
1958...
1959
46.5
47.6
49.1
50.0
55.4
34.8
34.9
35.1
34.6
39.3
21.9
20.2
19.0
19.8
24.3
18.2
16.1
14.7
15.4
19.2
12.9
14.7
16.1
14.8
15.1
3.2
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.9
2.4
3.1
3.6
2.4
2.1
7.3
8.0
9.0
8.8
9.0
11.7
12.7
14.1
15.5
16.1
2.8
2.7
3.0
3.4
3.7
8.9
10.0
11.1
12.1
12.3
1960 .
1961
1962 .
1963
1964
54.7
56.4
60.2
64.8
67.7
38.9
39.3
42.3
45.5
47.3
23.0
23.1
25.2
27.9
28.0
17.3
17.1
19.4
21.7
21.8
15.9
16.2
17.2
17.6
19.3
4.2
4.7
5.1
5.0
5.4
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.6
8.9
8.7
9.2
9.7
10.3
15.9
17.1
17.9
19.4
20.4
3.6
3.9
3.9
4.0
3.9
12.2
13.3
14.0
15.4
16.5
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
73.7
76.4
78.1
87.1
93.9
51.7
52.4
52.5
59.5
66.0
27.9
25.7
25.6
30.6
33.2
21.7
19.4
19.0
24.0
25.9
23.8
26.7
27.0
28.9
32.8
7.8
9.4
6.0
6.8
15.1
16.6
22.1
24.0
25.5
27.6
28.0
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.4
3.3
18.0
20.0
22.1
24.2
24.7
1970 1971
1972
1973
1974
94.9
110.0
124.1
136.0
135.5
66.8
80.1
93.9
103.4
97.1
31.9
43.3
54.3
57.6
47.0
24.3
35.1
44.9
47.9
37.3
34.9
36.8
39.6
45.8
50.0
9.8
11.6
13.5
15.5
15.9
6.6
5.4
4.7
6.2
7.9
18.6
19.8
21.5
24.1
26.2
28.1
29.9
30.2
32.5
38.4
3.3
4.0
4.4
4.9
5.4
24.8
25.9
25.8
27.7
33.0
1975 «
130.8
89.9
42.9
31.3
46.9
12.8
7.8
26.3
40.9
6.0
34.9
. ..
-
See footnotes at end of table.
212
2.3
!e
TABLE B-36.—New construction activity, 1929-75—Continued
[Value put in place, billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Private construction
Residential
buildings i
Total
Year or month
new
construction
Total
Total*
Naui
new
hmic
nous:__
ing
units
Public construction
Nonresidential buildingsl and other
construction
Total
Commercial »
In-
dustrial
Total
State
oral
erai
Other <
and
local*
133.7
137.0
135.6
136.8
137.4
137.4
99.4
99.8
99.1
98.4
98.1
98.3
50.6
49.4
49.2
48.7
48.6
48.5
40.8
39.6
39.8
39.9
40.0
39.5
48.8
50.5
49.9
49.7
49.6
49.8
15.7
16.4
16.0
16.1
15.8
16.0
7.1
7.9
7.6
7.3
7.7
7.8
26.0
26.2
26.4
26.3
26.1
25.9
34.2
37.1
36.5
38.4
39.2
39.1
4.6
5.0
5.2
5.7
5.2
5.6
29.6
32.1
31.3
32.7
34.0
33.5
ocE!:::
98.3
97.1
94.9
95.6
93.8
92.5
48.6
47.7
45.9
44.2
42.5
41.1
38.8
37.4
35.6
33.9
32.1
30.5
49.7
49.4
49.0
51.4
51.3
51.5
15.7
15.6
15.9
16.4
15.9
15.8
7.5
7.8
7.5
8.7
Nov....
Dec....
138.0
135.6
133.3
134.5
131.9
134.0
8.9
9.0
26.4
26.0
25.6
26.3
26.5
26.6
39.7
38.5
38.4
38.9
38.2
41.5
5.1
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.5
6.1
34.6
33.4
33.0
33.4
32.6
35.5
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar....
Apr....
May....
June
132.3
128.9
125.5
121.0
121.7
126.9
91.2
89.0
85.7
84.7
84.3
85.0
39.6
38.5
38.0
37.6
38.5
40.4
28.8
27.4
26.9
26.8
27.6
28.9
51.6
50.5
47.7
47.2
45.7
44.6
15.6
15.0
13.0
12.8
12.1
11.8
8.4
8.7
7.9
7.5
8.2
7.7
27.6
26.8
26.8
26.9
25.4
25.1
41.1
39.8
39.8
36.3
37.4
41.9
5.8
6.3
6.0
5.7
5.6
5.9
35.3
33.6
33.9
30.6
31.8
36.0
July....
Aug
Sept....
Oct.....
Nov p...
128.8
132.1
137.1
135.1
139.2
88.1
90.6
92.5
93.3
96.1
43.3
45.4
46.0
46.5
47.5
30.6
32.1
33.2
34.9
36.7
44.8
45.2
46.6
46.8
48.6
12.0
12.6
12.4
12.5
12.5
7.7
7.6
7.9
7.5
7.6
25.1
25.0
26.2
26.8
28.4
40.6
41.5
44.6
41.8
43.1
5.9
6.3
6.3
5.9
6.7
34.7
35.2
38.2
35.9
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar....
Apr....
May....
June...
July....
Aug....
se
i Beginning 1960, farm residential buildings included in residential buildings; prior to 1960, included in nonresidential
buildings
and other construction.
3
Total includes additions and alterations and nonhousekeeping units, not shown separately.
* Office buildings, warehouses, stores, restaurants, garages, etc.
* Religious, educational, hospital and institutional, miscellaneous nonresidential, farm (see also footnote 1), public
utilities,
and all other private.
8
Includes Federal grants-in-aid for State and local projects.
6
Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), except as noted.
213
TABLE B-37.—New housing starts and applications for financing^ 1929-75
[Thousands of units]
Housing starts
Private and
public i
Private 1
Total (farm and nonfarm)
Year or month
Total
(farm
and
nonfarm)
Nonfarm
Proposed
home con-5
struction
Type of
structure 2
Total
One
unit
Two or
more
units
Government
home programs
(nonfarm)
FHA3
VA
New
private
housing
units Appliauthor cations
ized<
for
FHA
commitments
Requests
for
VA
appraisals
J929
509.0
1933
93.0
1939
515.0
144.7
179.8
602.6
706.1
356 0
191.0
141.8
176.6
217.1
160.2
126.1
83.6
231.2
288.5
238.5
144.4
62.9
326.0
1, 023. 0
1,268.0
1, 362. 0
1,466 0
38.9
67.1
178.3
216.4
252.6
«8.8
91.8
160.3
71.1
90.8
56.6
121.7
286.4
293.2
327.0
191.2
148.6
141.3
156.5
307.0
392.9
270.7
128.3
102.1
109.3 ,208.3
397.7
192.8
267.9
253.7
338.6
306.2
197.7
198.8
341.7
369.7
164.4
226.3
251.4
535.4
620.8
401.5
159.4
234.2
234.0
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
New series
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
283.0
328.2
186.9
229.1
216.5
250.9
268.7
183.4
150.1
270.3
307.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 .
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1,952.0
1,491.0
1,504.0
1,438.0
1,551.0
1,646.0
1,349.0
, 224. 0
, 382. 0
, 5fr3. 7 ,531.3 ,517.0 , 234. 0
, 296. 1 ,274.0 , 252. 2 994.7
, 365. 0 , 336. 8 ,313.0 974.3
,492.5 ,468.7 , 462. 9 991.4
,634.9 , 614. 8 ,603.2 ,012.4
,561.0 , 534. 0 ,528.8 970.5
, 509. 7 ,487.5 ,472.8 963.7
,195.8 ,172.8 , 164. 9 778.6
,321.9 ,298.8 ,291.6 843.9
,545.4 ,521.4 ,507.6 899.4
,499.5 ,482.3 ,466.8 810.6
257.4
338.7
471.5
590.8
558.3
509.1
386.3
447.7
608.2
656.2
225.7
198.8
197.3
166.2
154.0
159.9
129.1
141.9
147.7
153.6
74.6
83.3
77.8
71.0
59.2
49.4
36.8
52.5
56,1
51.2
998.0
,064.2
, 186. 6
, 334. 7
, 285. 8
,239.8
971.9
141.0
353.4
323.7
242.4
243.8
221.1
190.2
182.1
188.9
153.0
167.2
168.9
187.6
142.9
177.8
171.2
139.3
113.6
102.1
99.2
124.3
131.7
138.2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975 P
469.0
,084.5
378.5
057.5
352.5
172.4
,433.6 812.9
,052.2 ,151.0
,356.6 ,309.2
, 045. 3 ,132.0
337.7 888.1
,161.5 892.8
620.7
901.2
, 047. 5
913.3
449.7
268.7
233.5
301.2
198.4
73.6
56.8
69.8
61.0
94.0
104.0
86.1
72.8
77.0
351.5
924.6
218.9
819.5
074.4
926.8
315.0
366.8
225.2
83.2
87.1
82.3
143.7
217.9
209.4
116.9
160.1
157.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
8
1
See footnotes at end of table.
214
TABLE B-37.—New housing starts and applications for financing, 1929-75—Continued
(Thousands of units]
Housing starts
Private and
public i
Proposed
home construction *
Private »
Total (farm and nonfarm)
Year or month
Total
(farm
and
non-
Type of
structure3
Non-
Government
home programs
(nonfarm)
New
private
housing
units
authorized <
farm
commit-
Total
farm)
One
unit
Two or
more
units
Applications
for
FHA
FHA a
ments 3
VA
Requests
for
VA
appraisals
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
86.2
109.6
127.2
160.9
149.9
149.5
.
Apr
May
June
July
127.2
114.0
9S[,6
Aug
Sept
Oct
97.2
75.6
55.4
Nov
Dec
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov?
Dec*
..
56.9
56.2
81.1
98.4
117.0
110.9
120.1
118.7
112.8
125.0
96.5
78.7
C
1,437
1,881
1,511
1,580
1,467
1,533
803
1,046
969
975
925
1,000
634
836
542
606
542
534
39
48
48
42
60
55
62
63
71
72
77
76
,306
,322
,395
,264
,159
,115
48
65
72
74
89
90
125
157
144
153
159
180
<7)
(0
1,314
1,156
1,157
1,106
1,017
880
920
826
845
792
802
682
394
329
313
314
215
198
53
57
67
73
69
69
71
68
76
81
74
78
1,040
928
853
811
770
837
103
85
95
133
111
79
160
185
169
185
157
132
999
1,000
985
, 980
1,130
1,094
739
733
775
762
887
884
260
267
210
218
243
210
71
62
57
62
64
72
68
64
63
73
81
88
689
701
677
837
912
949
72
64
72
86
142
84
126
144
128
131
216
120
935
987
931
1,103
1,028
972
300
282
338
349
326
337
70
69
78
75
83
76
73
82
82
83
80
82
1,042
995
1,095
1,079
1,085
1,058
70
67
71
99
90
67
156
157
172
188
189
173
i
(7
e:
1,235
1,269
1,269
1,452
1,354
1,309
1
Units in structures built by private developers for sale upon completion to local public housing authorities under the
Department of Housing and Urban Development "Turnkey program are classified as private housing. Military housing
starts, including those financed with mortgages insured by FHA under Section 803 of the National Housing Act, are included in publicly owned starts but excluded from total private starts and from FHA starts.
2 Not available prior to 1959 except for nonfarm for 1929-44.
3
For 1- to 4-unit structures.
* Authorized by issuance of local building permit: in 14,000 permit-issuing places beginning 1972; 13,000 for 1967-71;
12,000 for 1963-66; and 10,000 prior to 1963.
5 Units in mortgage applications or appraisal requests for new home construction.
« Monthly estimates for September 1945-May 1950 were prepared by Housing and Home Finance Agency.
7
Not available separately beginning January 1970.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of Housing and Urban Development, and Veterans Administration
(except as noted).
215
TABLE B—38.-—Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1947—76l
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nonmanufacturing
Manufacturing
Year
or quarter
Total
Total
Transportation
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Mining
Railroad
Air
Other
Public Comutili- munities cation
Commercial
and
other 2
1947
1948
1949 . . .
19.33
21.30
18.98
8.44
9.01
7.12
3.25
3.30
2.45
5.19
5.71
4.68
10.89
12.29
11.86
0.69
.93
.88
0.91
1.37
1.42
0.17
.10
.12
1.13
1.17
.76
1.54
2.54
3.10
1.40
1.74
1.34
5.05
4.42
4.24
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
20.21
25.46
26.43
28.20
27.19
7.39
10.71
11.45
11.86
11.24
2.94
4.82
5.21
5.31
4.91
4.45
5.89
6.24
6.56
6.33
12.82
14.75
14.98
16.34
15.95
.84
.11
.21
.25
.28
1.18
1.58
1.50
1.42
.93
.10
.14
.24
.24
.24
1.09
1.33
1.23
1.29
1.22
3.24
3.56
3.74
4.34
3.99
1.14
1.37
1.61
1.78
1.82
5.22
5.67
5.45
6.02
6.45
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
29.53
35.73
37.94
31.89
33. 55
11.89
15.40
16.51
12.38
12.77
5.41
7.45
7.84
5.61
5.81
6.48
7.95
8.68
6.77
6.95
17.64
20.34
21.43
19.51
20.78
.31
.64
.69
.43
.36
1.02
1.37
1.58
.86
1.02
.26
.35
.41
.37
.78
1.30
1.31
1.30
1.06
1.33
4.03
4.52
5.67
5.52
5.14
2.11
2.82
3.19
2.79
2.72
7.63
8.32
7.60
7.48
8.44
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
36.75
35.91
38.39
40.77
46.97
15.09
14.33
15.06
16.22
19. 34
7.23
6.31
6.79
7.53
9.28
7.85
8.02
8.26
8.70
10.07
21.66
21.58
23.33
24.55
27.62
.30
.29
.40
.27
.34
1.16
.82
1.02
1.26
1.66
.66
.73
.52
.40
1.02
1.30
1.23
1.65
1.58
1.50
5.24
5.00
4.90
4.98
5.49
3.24
3.39
3.85
4.06
4.61
8.75
9.13
9.99
10.99
12.02
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
54.42
63.51
65.47
67.76
75.56
23.44
28.20
28.51
28.37
31.68
11.50
14.06
14.06
14.12
15.96
11.94
14.14
14.45
14.25
15.72
30.98
35.32
36.96
39.40
43.88
.46
.62
.65
1.63
1.86
1.99
2.37
1.86
1.45
1.86
1.22
1.74
2.29
2.56
2.51
1.68
1.64
1.48
1.59
1.68
6.13
7.43
8.74
10.20
11.61
5.30
6.02
6.34
6.83
8.30
13.19
14.48
14.59
15.14
16.05
79.71
81.21
88.44
99.74
112.40
31.95
29.99
31.35
38.01
46.01
15.80
14.15
15.64
19.25
22.62
16.15
15.84
15.72
18.76
23.39
47.76
51.22
57.09
61.73
66.39
1.89
2.16
2.42
2.74
3.18
1.78
1.67
1.80
1.96
2.54
3.03
1.88
2.46
2.41
2.00
1.23
1.38
1.46
1.66
2.12
13.14
15.30
17.00
18.71
20.55
10.10
10.77
11.89
12.85
13.96
16.59
18.05
20.07
21.40
22.05
13.09
20.67
.
1970 ..
1971
1972
1973.
1974 .
19753
113.49
48.31
22.05
26.27
65.18
3.82
2.54
1.84
2.90
20.31
19763
119.68
50.71
22.22
28.48
68.98
3.67
2.29
1.26
2.82
23.99
96.19
1973: 1
II.... 97.76
Ill . 100. 90
IV... 103. 74
35.51
36.58
38.81
40.61
17.88
18.64
19.73
20.48
17.63
17.94
19.08
20.13
60.68
61.18
62.09
63.12
2.59
2.77
2.82
2.76
2.11
1.75
1.95
2.05
2.21
2.72
2.49
2.20
1.53
1.62
1.79
1.73
18.38
18.08
18.58
19.80
107. 27
111.40
113.99
116.22
42.96
45.32
47.04
48.08
21.43
22.50
23.08
23.28
21.53
22.82
23.96
24.80
64.31
66.08
66.94
68.14
2.80
3.07
3.27
3.56
114.57
1975: 1
II
112.46
III.— 112.16
49.05
48.78
47.39
22.86
22.59
21.01
26.20
26.19
26.38
65.52
63.68
64.76
114.80
48.16
21.82
26.34
1976: | 3 _ _ _ _ 118.16
113... 120.87
49.88
51.37
22.34
23.27
27.53
28.10
1974: 1
II.-..
III...
IV....
IV3...
34 95
12.34
12.70
13.12
13.24
21.53
21.55
21.36
21.35
2.10 2.13
2.42 2.21
2.68 1.84
3.05 1.81
1.63 20.12 13.83
1.84 20.97 13.94
2.16 20.16 14.01
2.71 20.93 14.04
21.69
21.63
22.84
22.04
3.76
3.78
3.82
2.39
2.70
2.75
2.82
2.75
2.99
20.82
20.83
20.34
66.64
3.93
2.36
1.67
2.91
21.54
34.24
68.28
69.50
4.00
2.49
1.36
3.04
23.62
33.76
2.09
1.60
2.12
20.28
19.52
19.79
13.36
12.50
12.95
1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural services; and nonprofit
organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in the gross national
product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers, professionals, institutions, and real estate
firms, and certain outlays charged to current account.
2 Commercial and other includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.
3 Estimates based on expected capital expenditures reported by business in October-December 1975. Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in expectations data.
Note.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
216
TABLE B-39.—Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1947-75
[Amounts in millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Year or month
Total manufacturing
and trade
Manufacturing
Merchant wholesalers
Retail trade
Inven- Ratio > Sales i Inven- Ratio » Sales i Inven-J Ratio ' Sales i Inven- Ratio >
Sales i tories
tories
'
tories 2
tories *
1947
1948
1949
35,260 52, 507
33, 788 49,497
15, 513 25,897
1.42 17,316 28, 543
1.53 16, 126 26,321
1.58
1.57
1.75
6,808
6,514
7,695 9,284
8,597 9,886
8,782 10, 210
9,052 10,686
8,993 10, 637
7,957
7,706
10, 200 14, 241
1.13 11,135 16,007
1.19 11,149 15,470
1.26
1.39
1.41
1.07
1.16
1.12
1.17
1.18
12,268
13,046
13, 529
14,091
14, 095
19,460
21,050
21,031
21, 488
20, 926
1.38
1.64
1.52
1.53
1.51
38, 596
43, 356
44, 840
47,987
46,443
59,822
70, 242
72, 377
76, 122
73, 175
1.36
1.55
1.58
1.58
1.60
18,634
21,714
22, 529
24, 843
23,355
31,078
39,306
41, 136
43, 948
41,612
1.48
1.66
1.78
1.76
1.81
51,694
54, 063
55, 879
54, 233
59,661
79, 516
87,304
89, 052
86,922
91,891
1.47
1.55
1.59
1.60
1.50
26,480
27,740
28, 736
27, 280
30, 219
45,069
50,642
51,871
50,070
52, 707
1.62
1.73
1.80
1.84
1.70
9,893
10,513
10,475
10,257
11,491
11,678
13, 260
12,730
12,739
13,879
1.13
1.19
1.23
1.24
1.15
15,321
15,811
16, 667
16,696
17,951
22, 769
23,402
24,451
24,113
25, 305
1.43
1.47
1.44
1.43
1.40
60, 746
61,133
65,417
68,969
73,687
94, 747
95,648
101,090
105, 477
111,480
1.56
1.54
1.51
1.49
1.47
30, 796
30, 896
33, 113
35,032
37,335
53,814
54,939
58, 213
60,043
63,386
1.76
1.74
1.72
1.69
1.64
11,656
11,988
12,674
13,382
14,529
14, 120
14,488
14,936
16, 048
17,000
1.22
1.20
1.16
1.15
1.14
18,294
18, 249
19, 630
20, 556
21,823
26,813
26, 221
27,941
29,386
31,094
1.45
1.43
1.38
1.39
1.40
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
80, 292
87, 186
89,707
97, 138
103, 134
120,943
136,803
145, 492
155,845
167,360
1.45
1.47
1.57
1.55
1.57
41,003
44,869
46, 449
50, 282
53, 555
68,221
77,965
84, 655
90,875
97,074
1.60
1.62
1.76
1.74
1.76
15,611
16,987
17, 108
18, 366
19, 756
18,317
20,765
21,885
22,997
24,910
1.15
1.15
1.23
1.22
1.21
23,677
25,330
26, 151
28,490
29,824
34,405
38,073
38,952
41,973
45,376
1.39
1.44
1.46
1.43
1.46
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
104,736
112,315
124,244
143, 742
163,882
175, 561
184,711
197,692
224,401
271,050
1.64
1.61
1.53
1.46
1.50
52,859 101, 645
55,917 102,445
62, 017 107, 719
71, 398 120,870
81,723 150,404
1.89
1.82
1.69
1.58
1.65
20, 583
22, 327
24,862
30,400
37,344
27,290
29,695
32, 817
38,302
46, 564
1.26
1.27
1.24
1.16
1.13
31,294
34,071
37, 365
41,943
44, 815
46,626
52,571
57, 156
65,229
74,082
1.47
1.47
1.46
1.46
1.54
1975«___
167, 217 266, 000
1.59 82, 297 146, 671
1.81 36, 549 45, 490
1974: Jan
Feb.. .
Mar
Apr
May....
June
154,323
156,595
159,735
160, 999
163,048
163,539
227,338
230,405
233, 390
235,458
239,431
243, 850
1.47
1.47
1.46
1.46
1.47
1.49
76, 501 122,570
77, 314 124,831
78,627 126, 500
79,251 128,438
81, 346 130, 936
81, 519 133,541
1.60
1.61
1.61
1.62
1.61
1.64
34,743
35,986
37, 170
37,342
36,913
37,293
38,986
39, 640
40,425
40,423
41, 203
42, 347
1.12
1.10
1.09
1.08
1.12
1.14
July
Aug
Sept
Oct ...
Nov
Dec....
168,082
171,229
170, 355
170,997
167,918
162,347
248,628
253,053
258, 175
263, 791
267, 075
271, 050
1.48
1.48
1.52
1.54
1.59
1.67
83,728 136,731
85,481 139,727
85, 749 142,975
87,402 145,062
85, 675 147, 135
79,737 150,404
1.63
1.63
1.67
1.66
1.72
1.89
38,449
38,828
38, 748
37,751
37,714
37, 501
43, 171
43, 704
44, 500
45, 642
45,976
46, 564
161,915
163, 248
159,050
162, 374
163,038
165,504
271, 148
270,252
268,449
266,970
264, 335
263,749
1.67
1.66
1.69
1.64
1.62
1.59
79,234 151, 624
79, 214 151, 993
77, 509 151, 194
80, 333 150, 184
79,423 148,951
80,740 148,059
1.91
1.92
1.95
1.87
1.88
1.83
36, 675
37, 120
35, 590
35,228
35,442
36, 186
169, 124
172, 349
173,441
175,318
174, 024
263, 345
264,662
265, 087
266, 867
266,000
1.56
1.54
1.53
1.52
1.53
82,902 147, 189
85,258 146,583
86, 288 146,413
87, 704 146, 510
86,666 146, 671
1.78
1.72
1.70
1.67
1.69
36,567
37, 166
37, 604
37, 449
37, 008
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.
.
.
.
I960
1961*.. ..
1962
1963 . .
1964 ..
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr..
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov P....
Dec v
1.24 48, 371 73,839
1.50
43,079
43,295
43,938
44,406
44, 789
44,727
65,782
65,934
66,465
66,597
67, 292
67,962
1.53
1.52
1.51
1.50
1.50
1.52
1.12
1.13
1.15
1.21
1.22
1.24
45,905
46,920
45, 858
45, 844
44, 529
45, 109
68,726
69,622
70, 700
73, 087
73,964
74,082
1.50
1.48
1.54
1.59
1.66
1.64
46, 197
45,951
45, 527
45, 303
44, 558
44,850
1.26
1.24
1.28
1.29
1.26
1.24
46, 006
46,914
45, 951
46,813
48, 173
48, 578
73, 327
72,308
71, 728
71, 483
70,826
70, 840
1.59
1.54
1.56
1.53
1.47
1.46
44,653
45, 501
45,625
45, 715
45, 490
1.22
1.22
1.21
1.22
1.23
49, 655
49, 925
49, 549
50, 165
50, 350
52,098
71, 503
72, 578
73, 049
74, 642
73,839
1.44
1.45
1.47
1.49
1.47
i Monthly average for year and total for month.
Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
Inventory/sales ratio. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
4
Manufacturing data prior to 1961 not completely comparable with later data.
6
Based on seasonally adjusted data through November.
3
3
Note.—The inventory figures in this table do not agree with the estimates of change in business inventories included
in the gross national product since these figures cover only manufacturing and trade rather than all business, and show
inventories in terms of current book value witnout adjustment for revaluation.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
217
TABLE B-40.—Manufacturers9 shipments and inventories^ 1947-75
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Shipments l
Inventories'
Durable goods industries
Year or month
Total
Dura- Nonble durable
goods goods
indus- industries
tries
Total
Total
Materials Work Finin
and
ished
sup- process goods
plies
Nondurable goods industries
Total
Materials Work
Finand
in
ished
sup- process goods
plies
1947
1948
1949
15,513
17,316
16, 126
6,694
7,579
7,191
1950.
1951
1952
1953
1954
18,634
21,714
22,529
24,843
23,355
8,845
10,493
11,313
13, 349
11,828
9,789
11,221
11,216
11,494
11,527
31,078
39,306
41, 136
43,948
41,612
15, 539
20,991
23,731
25,878
23,710
8,317
8,167
2,472
2,440
7,409
7,415
1955
1956
1957. ...
1958
1959
26, 480
27,740
28,736
27,280
30,219
14, 071
14,715
15,237
13,571
15, 545
12, 409
13,025
13,499
13,708
14,674
45,069
50,642
51,871
50.070
52,707
26,405 9,194 10,756 6,348 18,664 8,556
30,447 10,417 12,317 7,565 20,195 8,971
31,728 10,608 12837 8,125 20, 143 8,775
30,095 9,847 12,294 7,749 19,975 8,671
31,839 10,585 12,952 8,143 20,868 9,089
2,571
2,721
2,864
2,800
2,928
7,666
8,622
8,624
8,498
8,857
1960
1961*
1962
1963
1964
30,796
30, 896
33,113
35,032
37,335
15,817
15, 544
17, 103
18,247
19,634
14,979
15,352
16,010
16,786
17,701
53,814
54,939
58,213
60, 043
63,386
32,360
32, 509
34,605
35,813
38,436
10,286
10, 242
10,798
11,001
11,927
12,780
13,211
14,205
14,997
16,253
9,190
9,056
9,602
9,815
10,256
21,454 9,113
22, 430 9,464
23,608 9,841
24,230 10,003
24, 950 10, 185
1965
1966
1967 . ...
1968
1969
41,003
44, 869
46,449
50,282
53, 555
22,216 18, 788
24,633 20, 236
25, 212 21, 236
27,694 22, 588
29,459 24, 096
68,221
77,965
84, 655
90, 875
97, 074
42,227
49, 818
54, 931
59, 112
63, 371
13,299
15, 501
16, 445
17, 418
18,668
18, 152
21,978
25, 017
27,605
29, 175
10, 776
12,339
13, 469
14,089
15,528
25,994
28, 147
29,724
31,763
33,703
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
52, 859
55,917
62,017
71,398
81, 723
28,229
29, 948
33, 443
38, 724
42, 635
66,768
66, 050
70, 218
79, 441
97,967
17,375
17,638
18, 134
18,940
23, 068
34,877
36,395
37, 501
41,429
52, 437
41, 140 23, 833 50,718
13, 130
13,578
13, 865
15, 818
20, 727
82, 297 41, 297
19, 000
19, 270
20,010
24, 423
33, 393
95,953 30,980
30, 393
29, 142
32,074
36,078
41, 506
1975*
24,629 101,645
25,969 102, 445
28, 573 107,719
32, 674 120, 870
39, 089 150, 404
41, 001 146, 671
8,819 25,897 13,061
9,738 28, 543 14,662
8,935 26,321 13,060
12, 836
13,881
13,261
8,966 10,720
7,894 9,721
15, 539
18,315
17,405
6,206 18,070
6,040 17,902
2,935 9,353
3,193 9,773
3,304 10,463
3,410 10,817
3,519 11,246
10,488 3,823 11,683
11,220 4,237 12,690
11,746 4,434 13, 544
12,299 4,849 14,615
12,823 5,152 15,728
19, 526
5,278
5,647
5,968
6,597
8,044
7,722
76, 501
1974: Jan
77, 314
Feb
78,627
Mar
79, 251
Apr
May.... 81, 346
81, 519
June
40, 106
40, 409
41,065
41,433
42,767
43, 138
36, 395 122, 570
36,905 124, 831
37, 562 126, 500
37, 818 128, 438
38, 579 130, 936
38, 381 133, 541
80, 541
81, 925
83, 014
84, 108
85, 715
87, 366
24, 923
25, 494
26, 335
26,913
27, 739
28, 471
36, 285
36, 942
37, 264
37, 721
38, 335
38, 870
19, 333
19, 489
19,415
19, 474
19, 641
20,025
42, 029
42, 906
43, 486
44, 330
45, 221
46, 175
16, 335
16, 751
17, 062
17, 535
18, 046
18, 506
6,568
6,754
6,732
6,922
7,056
7,307
July
Aug....
Sept...Oct
Nov
Dec
83,728
85, 481
85,749
87, 402
85, 675
79, 737
43, 831
44, 546
44,828
45,857
44,275
40, 799
39, 897 136, 731
40, 935 139, 727
40, 921 142, 975
41,545 145,062
41, 400 147, 135
38,938 150,404
89, 286
91,004
93, 184
94,680
95, 787
97,967
29,439
30, 416
31, 102
31, 846
32, 164
33, 393
39, 341
39, 913
40,488
40, 848
41, 121
41, 506
20, 506
20,675
21,594
21, 986
22, 502
23,068
47, 445
48, 723
49, 791
50, 382
51,348
52,437
19,111 7,503 20, 831
19,623 7,681 21,419
20,226 7,748 21,817
20, 273 7,823 22, 286
20, 353 7,917 23, 078
20,727 8,044 23,666
1975: Jan
Feb....
Mar....
Apr....
May_._.
June
79, 234
79,214
77, ?09
80, 333
79, 423
80, 740
40, 247
39,992
39, 124
40, 851
40, 183
40, 458
38, 987 151, 624 99, 124
39,222 151,993 100,082
38, 385 151, 194 99, 879
39, 482 150, 184 99, 803
39, 240 148, 951 99, 378
40, 282 148,059 98,7%
34, 103
34, 561
34,304
33, 738
33, 090
32,676
41, 454
41,632
41, 513
41,939
42,022
41, 917
23,567
23, 889
24, 062
24, 126
24,266
24, 203
52,500
51,911
51, 315
50, 381
49, 573
49,263
20, 715 7,750 24,035
20,436 7,664 23, 811
20, 181 7,463 23, 671
19, 734 7,481 23, 166
19, 503 7,323 22,747
19,232 7,407 22,624
98,189
97, 199
96,640
96, 215
95,953
32, 159
31, 626
31, 370
31,072
30,980
42,031
41, 692
41, 177
41, 175
41, 140
23,999
23, 881
24,093
23,968
23, 833
49, 000
49,384
49, 773
50, 295
50, 718
19, 135
19, 130
19, 203
19, 657
19, 526
July.... 82,902 41, 227
Aug.... 85, 258 42, 492
86, 288 43,280
87, 704 43,908
Nov p... 86,666 42, 503
ffl::::
41, 67* 147, 189
42, 766 146, 583
43,008 146,413
43, 796 146, 510
44, 163 146, 671
1 Monthly average for year and total for month.
2 Book value, seasonally adjusted, end of period, except as noted.
3 Data prior to 1961 not completely comparable with later data.
4 Based on seasonally adjusted data through November.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
218
7,457
7,540
7,639
7,635
7,722
16,469
17, 170
17,668
19, 014
23, 666
23, 470
19, 126
19, 401
19, 692
19,873
20, 119
20, 362
22,408
22, 714
22,931
23,003
23,470
TABLE B-41.—Manufacturers' new and unfilled orders, 1947-75
[Amounts in millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
New orders l
Durable goods
industries
Year or month
Total
Total
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961*
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975«
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
.
Nov
Dec .
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug.. .
Sept
0t
NOVP
15,256
17,693
15,614
20, 110
23,907
23,204
23, 586
22,335
27,465
28, 368
27. 559
26, 903
30,672
30, 115
31,086
33,005
35, 322
37,952
41, 803
45, 944
46,763
50, 243
53, 646
52,118
55, 726
62, 922
73, 836
83, 297
80,956
78,251
79, 463
79,977
82, 260
85, 493
85, 529
87,226
90,114
86, 959
. 85,678
83, 805
76, 704
75,068
76,478
74, 363
78, 600
78, 753
80, 237
83, 550
85, 649
85, 4b3
86, 422
85, 943
6,388
8,126
6,633
10, 165
12,841
12,061
12, 147
10,768
14, 996
15, 365
14, 111
13, 171
15, 948
15, 223
15,699
17,025
18, 521
20,258
22,986
25, 720
25,526
27,666
29, 549
27, 486
29, 745
34, 274
41,098
44, 289
39,838
41,627
42,603
42, 404
44,325
46, 9b9
47, 201
47,418
49, 184
46, 214
44,393
42, 70b
38,092
36, 172
37, 362
35, 973
38, 983
39, 428
39, 730
41, 681
42, 688
42, 227
42, 393
41, 580
Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense
6,971
7,694
7,055
7,324
8,487
10, 310
11,494
10, 276
11,003
11,415
11, 300
11,925
11, 804
12,011
12,800
11,805
11,832
11,383
10, 623
10,459
10, 077
9,970
9,522
10, 309
10, 302
10, 138
10, 728
10, 392
10, 214
10, 689
10, 690
Unfilled orders »
Nondurable
goods
industries
8,868
9,566
8,981
9,945
11,066
11, 143
11, 439
11,566
12,469
13, 003
13.448
13, 733
14, 724
14,893
15,387
15,980
16,801
17,694
18,817
20, 224
21, 238
22, 577
24, 097
24, 632
25, 981
28, 648
32, 738
39,009
41, 118
36, 624
36, 860
37, 573
37, 935
38, 534
38, 328
39, 808
40, 930
40, 745
41, 285
41, 100
38,612
38, 896
39, 116
38, 390
39, 617
39, 325
40, 507
41, 869
42, 961
43, 226
44, 029
44, 363
Total
Durable
goods
industries
Nondurable
goods
industries
34,473
30,736
24,045
41,456
67,266
75,857
61,178
48,266
60, 004
67,375
53, 183
48,882
54,494
46,133
48,395
47, 307
50.940
58,506
68,146
81, 029
84, 994
84, 146
85, 265
76, 272
73, 928
84, 948
114,694
133, 832
119, 108
116,445
118,599
119,955
122, 961
127, 114
131, 129
134, 623
139, 256
140, 467
138, 738
136, 869
133,832
129, 671
126, 939
123, 798
122, 066
121, 396
120, 901
121, 548
121, 945
121, 113
119,832
119, 108
28, 579
26,619
19,622
35,435
63, 394
72,680
58,637
45,250
56,241
63,880
50,352
45,739
50,654
43,401
45,241
44,485
47,958
55,623
64,920
77, 964
81,904
81, 209
82,313
73,286
70, 798
80, 914
109, 862
129, 944
113, 920
111,384
113, 584
114, 927
117,817
122, 016
126, 082
129, 667
134, 305
135, 695
134, 224
132, 656
129, 944
125, 873
123, 246
120, 099
118, 231
117,476
116,753
117, 206
117,408
116, 356
114,845
113,920
5,894
4,117
4,423
6,021
3,872
3,177
2,541
3,016
3,763
3,495
2,831
3,143
3,840
2,732
3 154
2,822
2,982
2,883
3,226
3,065
3,090
2,937
2,952
2,986
3,130
4,034
4,832
3,888
5,188
5,061
5,015
5,028
5,144
5,098
5,047
4,956
4,951
4,772
4,514
4,213
3,888
3,798
3,693
3,699
3,835
3,920
4,148
4,342
4,537
4,757
4,987
5,188
Unfilled ordersshipments ratio 3
Total
3.42
3.63
3.87
3.35
2.60
2.85
2.58
2.52
2.46
2.40
2.49
2.62
2.93
2.81
2.71
2.59
2.41
2.17
2.19
2.63
2.96
2.49
2.63
2.64
2.64
2.68
2.68
2.76
2.81
2.87
2.88
2.77
2.81
2.96
2.91
2.85
2.87
2.73
2.74
2.71
2.69
2.62
2.54
2.46
2.49
Durable
goods
industries
4.12
4.27
4.55
4.00
3.49
3.44
3.21
3.01
2.95
2.89
2.99
3.12
3.51
3.38
3.27
3.13
2.92
2.62
2.61
3.13
3.56
3.03
3.14
3.16
3.14
3.20
3.21
3.30
3.39
3.45
3.46
3.32
3.38
3.56
3.50
3.44
3.47
3.29
3.33
3.30
3.29
3.17
3.08
2.97
3.03
Nondurable
goods
industries
0.96
1.12
1.04
.85
.55
.88
.63
.72
.65
.63
.57
.60
.56
.52
.47
.45
.45
.44
.52
.57
.45
.50
.57
.56
.57
.56
.54
.54
.52
.52
.50
.47
.44
.45
.44
.42
.44
.44
.44
.45
.45
.47
.48
.50
.50
1
Monthly average for year and total for month.
2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
Ratio of unfilled orders at end of period to shipments for period; excludes industries with no unfilled orders. Annual
figures relate to seasonally adjusted data for December.
4
Data prior to 1961 not completely comparable with later data.
5 Based on seasonally adjusted data through November.
3
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
219
PRICES
TABLE B-42.—Consumer price indexes by expenditure classesy 1929-75
For urban wage earners and clerical workers
[1967 = 100]
All
items
Year or month
Housing
Food
Total
Rent
Apparel Transportaand
upkeep tion
Reading Other
Medical Personal and
goods
care
care
recreaand
tion services
1929....
51.3
48.3
76.0
48.5
1933
38.8
30.6
54.1
36.9
1939
41.6
34.6
52.2
56.0
42.4
43.0
36.7
40.3
45.3
46.9
42.0
44.1
48.8
51.8
52.7
53.9
58.5
66.9
72.1
71.4
35.2
38.4
45.1
50.3
49.6
50.7
58.1
70.6
76.6
73.5
52.4
53.7
56.2
56.8
58.1
59.1
60.6
65.2
69.8
70.9
56.2
57.2
58.5
58.5
58.6
58.8
59.2
61.1
65.1
68.0
42.8
44.8
52.3
54.6
58.5
61.5
67.5
78.2
83.3
80.1
42.7
44.2
48.1
47.9
47.9
47.8
50.3
55.5
61.8
66.4
36.8
37.0
38.0
39.9
41.1
42.1
44.4
48.1
51.1
52.7
40.2
41.2
45.2
49.9
53.4
55.1
59.0
66.0
68.5
68.3
46.1
47.7
50.0
54.1
60.0
62.4
64.5
68.7
72.2
74.9
48.3
49.2
50.7
53.3
54.7
56.9
58.8
63.8
66.8
68.7
72.1
77.8
79.5
80.1
80.5
80.2
81.4
84.3
86.6
87.3
74.5
82.8
84.3
83.0
82.8
81.6
82.2
84.9
88.5
87.1
72.8
77.2
78.7
80.8
81.7
82.3
83.6
86.2
87.7
88.6
70.4
73.2
76.2
80.3
83.2
84.3
85.9
87.5
89.1
90.4
79.0
86.1
85.3
84.6
84.5
84.1
85.8
87.3
87.5
88.2
68.2
72.5
77.3
79.5
78.3
77.4
78.8
83.3
86.0
89.6
53.7
56.3
59.3
61.4
63.4
64.8
67.2
69.9
73.2
76.4
68.3
74.7
75.6
76.3
76.6
77.9
81.1
84.1
86.9
88.7
74.4
76.6
76.9
77.7
76.9
76.7
77.8
80.7
83.9
85.3
69.9
72.8
76.6
78.5
79.8
79.8
81.0
83.3
84.4
86.1
88.7
89.6
90.6
91.7
92.9
94.5
97.2
100.0
104.2
109.8
88.0
89.1
89.9
91.2
92.4
94.4
99.1
100.0
103.6
108.9
90.2
90.9
91.7
92.7
93.8
94.9
97.2
100.0
104.2
110.8
91.7
92.9
94.0
95.0
95.9
96.9
98.2
100.0
102, 4
105.7
89.6
90.4
90.9
91.9
92.7
93.7
96.1
100.0
105.4
111.5
89.6
90.6
92.5
93.0
94.3
95.9
97.2
100.0
103.2
107.2
79.1
81.4
83.5
85.6
87.3
89.5
93.4
100.0
106.1
113.4
90.1
90.6
92.2
93.4
94.5
95.2
97.1
100.0
104.2
109.3
87.3
89.3
91.3
92.8
95.0
95.9
97.5
100.0
104.7
108.7
87.8
88.5
89.1
90.6
92.0
94.2
97.2
100.0
104.6
109.1
1970
1971
1972 .
1973
1974 ..
1975 .
116.3
121.3
125.3
133.1
147.7
161.2
114.9
118.4
123.5
141.4
161.7
175.4
118.9
124.3
129.2
135.0
150.6
166.8
110.1
115.2
119.2
124.3
130.6
137.3
116.1
119.8
122.3
126.8
136.2
142.3
112.7
118.6
119.9
123.8
137.7
150.6
120.6
128.4
132.5
137.7
150.5
168.6
113.2
116.8
119.8
125.2
137.3
150.7
113.4
119.3
122.8
125.9
133.8
144.4
116.0
120.9
125.5
129.0
137.2
147.4
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
139.7
141.5
143.1
143.9
145.5
146.9
153.7
157.6
159.1
158.6
159.7
160.3
142.2
143.5
144.9
146.1
147.6
149.2
127.7
128.4
128.7
129.2
129.6
130.2
128.8
130.4
132.2
133.6
135.0
135.7
128.1
129.3
132.0
133.7
136.3
138.8
142.2
143.4
144.8
145.6
147.2
149.4
129.8
130.8
131.8
133.1
134.9
136.5
128.3
128.9
129.5
130.4
132.0
133.5
131.8
132.3
132.8
133.6
134.4
135.8
148.0
149.9
151.7
153.0
154.3
155.4
160.5
162.8
165.0
166.1
167.8
169.7
150.9
152.9
154.9
156.7
158.3
159.9
130.6
131.2
131.8
132.5
133.1
133.7
135.3
138.1
139.9
141.1
142.4
141.9
140.6
141.3
142.2
142.9
143.4
143.5
151.4
153.7
155.2
156.3
157.5
159.0
137.8
139.3
141.2
143.0
144.2
145.3
134.6
135.2
137.0
137.8
138.8
139.8
137.7
139.4
140.4
141.4
142.7
143.9
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
156.1
157.2
157.8
158.6
159.3
160.6
170.9
171.6
171.3
171.2
171.8
174.4
161.3
162.8
163.6
164.7
165.3
166.4
134.5
135.1
135.5
135.9
136.4
136.9
139.4
140.2
140.9
141.3
141.8
141.4
143.2
143.5
144.8
146.2
147.4
149.8
161.0
163.0
164.6
165.8
166.8
168.1
146.5
147.8
148.9
149.5
149.9
150.3
141.0
141.8
142.0
143.5
143.8
144.1
144.8
145.9
146.5
146.8
147.1
147.3
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
162.3
162.8
163.6
164,6
165.6
166.3
178.6
178.1
177.8
179.0
179.8
180.7
167.1
167.7
168.9
169.8
171.3
172.2
137.3
138.0
138.4
139.3
139.9
140.6
141.1
142.3
143.5
144.6
145.5
145.2
152.6
153.6
155.4
156.1
157.4
157.6
169.8
170.9
172.2
173.5
173.3
174.7
151.2
151.4
152.1
152.9
153.6
154.6
144.4
144.7
146.0
146.6
147.0
147.5
147.6
148.1
148.0
148.5
148.9
149.8
1940..
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
.
...
___,
1950 .
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.
1960
1961 .. .
1962
1963
1964 . .
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
.
.
July..
Aug
Sept
Oct..
Nov
Dec
..
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
220
TABLE B-43.—Consumer price indexes by commodity and service groups, 1939—75
For urban wage earners and clerical workers
[1967 = 1001
Services
Commodities
Year or
month
All
items
Special indexes
Commodities less food
All
commodities
Food
All
Durable
Nondurable
All
services
Rent
Services
less
rent
All
items
less
food
All
items
less
shelter
Nondurable
commodities
1939
41.6
40.2
34.6
47.7
48.5
44.3
43.5
56.0
38.1
47.2
39.7
38.4
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
42.0
44.1
48.8
51.8
52 7
53 9
58.5
66.9
72 1
71.4
40.6
43.3
49.6
54.0
54 7
56 3
62.4
75.0
80 4
78.3
35.2
38.4
45.1
50.3
49 6
50.7
58.1
70.6
76.6
73.5
48.0
50.4
56.0
58.4
61.6
64.1
68.1
76.8
82.7
81.5
48.1
51.4
58.4
60.3
65 9
70.9
74.1
80.3
86.2
87.4
44.7
46.7
51.6
53.8
56.6
58.6
62.9
72.2
77.8
76.3
43.6
44.2
45.6
46.4
47 5
48.2
49.1
51.1
54.3
56.9
56.2
57.2
58.5
58.5
58.6
58.8
59.2
61.1
65.1
68.0
38.1
38.6
40.3
42.1
44 2
45.1
46.7
49.0
51.9
54.5
47.3
48.7
52.1
53.6
55 7
56.9
59.4
64.9
69.6
70.3
39.9
42.4
47.7
51.3
52 2
53.6
59.0
68.5
73.9
72.6
38.9
41.6
47.6
51.8
52.2
53.7
59.6
71.9
77.2
74.9
72.1
77.8
79.5
80.1
80.5
80.2
81.4
84.3
86.6
87.3
78.8
85.9
87.0
86 7
85.9
85.1
85 9
88.6
90.6
90.7
74.5
82.8
84.3
83.0
82.8
81.6
82.2
84.9
88.5
87.1
81.4
87.5
88.3
88.5
87.5
86.9
87.8
90.5
91.5
92.7
88.4
95.1
96.4
95.7
93.3
91.5
91.5
94.4
95.9
97.3
76.2
82.0
82.4
83.1
83.5
83.5
85.3
87.6
88.2
89.3
58.7
61.8
64.5
67.3
69.5
70.9
72.7
75.6
78.5
80.8
70.4
73.2
76.2
80.3
83.2
84.3
85.9
87.5
89.1
90.4
56.0
59.3
62.2
64.8
66.7
68.2
70 1
73.3
76.4
79 0
71.1
75.7
77.5
79.0
79.5
79.7
81.1
83.8
85.7
87.3
73.1
79.2
80.8
81.0
81.0
80.6
81.7
84.4
86.9
87.6
75.4
82.5
83.4
83.2
83.2
82.5
83.7
86.3
88.6
88.2
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
88.7
89.6
90.6
91.7
92.9
94.5
97.2
100.0
104.2
109.8
91.5
92.0
92.8
93.6
94.6
95.7
98.2
100.0
103.7
108.4
88.0
89.1
89.9
91.2
92.4
94.4
99.1
100.0
103.6
108.9
93.1
93.4
94.1
94.8
95.6
96.2
97.5
100.0
103.7
108.1
96.7
96.6
97.6
97.9
98.8
98.4
98.5
100.0
103.1
107.0
90.7
91.2
91.8
92.7
93.5
94.8
97.0
100.0
104.1
108.8
83.5
85.2
86.8
88.5
90.2
92.2
95.8
100.0
105.2
112.5
91.7
92.9
94.0
95.0
95.9
96.9
98.2
100.0
102.4
105.7
81.9
83.9
85.5
87.3
89.2
91.5
95.3
100.0
105.7
113.8
88.8
89.7
90.8
92.0
93.2
94.5
96.7
100.0
104.4
110.1
88.9
89.9
90.9
92.1
93.2
94.6
97.4
100.0
104.1
109.0
89.4
90.2
90.9
92.0
93.0
94.6
98.1
100.0
103.9
108.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
116.3
121.3
125.3
133.1
147.7
161.2
113.5
117.4
120.9
129 9
145.5
158 4
114.9
118.4
123.5
141 4
161.7
175 4
112.5
116.8
119.4
123 5
136.6
149 1
111.8
116.5
118.9
121 9
130.6
145 5
113.1
117.0
119.8
124 8
140.9
151 7
121.6
128.4
133.3
139 1
152.1
166 6
110.1
115.2
119.2
124 3
130.6
137 3
123.7
130.8
135.9
141 8
156.0
171 9
116.7
122. 1
125.8
130 7
143.7
157.1
114.4
119.3
122.9
131.1
146.1
159.1
114.0
117.7
121.7
132.8
151.0
163.2
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
139.7
141.5
143.1
143.9
145.5
146.9
137.0
139 3
141.0
141.8
143.4
144.8
153.7
157.6
159.1
158.6
159.7
160.3
127.9
129 2
131.1
132.6
134.5
136.2
123.3
123 4
124.3
125.6
127.5
129.7
131.3
133 5
136.1
137.7
139.5
141.0
144.8
145 9
147.1
148.0
149.5
150.9
127.7
128 4
128.7
129.2
129.6
130.2
148.0
149 1
150.4
151.4
153.1
154.7
135.6
136 9
138.4
139.6
141.3
143.0
137.8
139.8
141.5
142.3
144.0
145.4
142.1
145.2
147.2
147.8
149.3
150.4
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
148.0
149.9
151.7
153.0
154.3
155.4
145.6
147.6
149.4
150.7
152.0
153.0
160.5
162.8
165.0
166.1
167.8
169.7
137.5
139.3
140.9
142.2
143.3
143.9
131.5
133.2
134.8
136.8
138.0
138.8
141.8
143.7
145.3
146.1
147.2
147.7
152.6
154.2
156.0
157.3
158.7
160.1
130.6
131.2
131.8
132.5
133.1
133.7
156.6
158.4
160.3
161.9
163.3
164.8
144.4
146.1
147.8
149.1
150.4
151.3
146.4
148.3150.0
151.2
152.5
153.5
150.9
153.0
154.8
155.8
157.2
158.3
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
156.1
157.2
157.8
158.6
159.3
160.6
153.4
154.4
155.0
155.7
156.5
157.9
170.9
171.6
171.3
171.2
171.8
174.4
143 9
144.9
146.0
147.2
148.1
148.9
139.3
140.3
142.1
143.6
144.8
145.8
147 2
148.2
148.8
149.8
150.5
151.2
161 3
162.6
163.2
164.1
164.5
165.7
134 5
135.1
135.5
135.9
136.4
136.9
166 2
167.5
168.3
169.2
169.6
170.9
151.9
153.0
153.9
154.9
155.6
156.6
154.1
155.0
155.6
156.3
157.0
158.4
158.7
159.6
159.7
160.1
160.8
162.4
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
162.3
162.8
163.6
164.6
165.6
166.3
160.1
160.4
160.8
161.7
162.2
162.7
178.6
178.1
177.8
179.0
179.8
180.7
149.9
150.7
151.4
152.2
152.6
152.8
146.9
147.5
148. 2
148.9
149.2
149.3
152.2
153.0
153.8
154.6
155.1
155.4
166.6
167.4
169.1
170.1
172.0
173.1
137.3
138.0
138.4
139.3
139.9
140.6
171.9
172.7
174.6
175.7
177.7
179.0
157.6
158.3
159.5
160.4
161.5
162.1
160.3
160.8
161.6
162.6
163.4
164.1
165.0
165.2
165.4
166.4
167.1
167.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
..
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
221
597-578 O - 76 - 15
TABLE B-44.—Consumer price indexes > selected commodities and services, 1939-75
For urban wage earners and clerical workers
[1967=100]
Nondurable commodities less food
Durable commodities
Year or month
Total i
New
cars
Used
cars
Household
durables
Apparel
commodities
Total
Services less rent
Nondurables
less
Total
food
and
apparel
Household Transserv- portation
ices
servless
ices
rent
Medical
care
services
Others
1939
48.5
43.2
56.6
44.3
43.0
46.3
38.1
36.1
32 5
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
48.1
51.4
58.4
60.3
65.9
70.9
74.1
80.3
86.2
87.4
43.3
46.6
69.2
75.6
82.8
55.9
59.8
66.9
69.5
76.0
81.8
86.5
95.6
101.7
99.0
44.7
46.7
51.6
53.8
56.6
58.6
62.9
72.2
77.8
76.3
43.5
45.8
53.5
55.9
59.8
63.0
69.5
80.4
85.4
82.0
46.8
48.4
51.1
53.2
54.7
55.8
58.2
66.2
72.3
72.4
38.1
38.6
40.3
42.1
44.2
45.1
46.7
49.0
51.9
54.5
36.1
36.3
38.2
38.2
38.2
38 2
39.0
40.3
44.9
50.0
32.5
32 7
33.7
35.4
36.9
37.9
40.1
43.5
46.4
48 1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
88.4
95.1
96.4
95.7
93.3
91.5
91.5
94.4
95.9
97.3
83.4
87.4
94.9
95.8
94.3
90.9
93.5
98.4
101.5
105.9
100.2
109.8
106.9
105.7
102.9
100.1
99.7
101.4
102.1
102.0
76.2
82.0
82.4
83.1
83.5
83.5
85.3
87.6
88.2
89.3
81.1
88.7
87.7
86.7
86.3
85.8
87.3
88.2
88.2
89.0
72.9
77.5
79.0
81.0
81.8
82.1
84.1
87.4
88.3
89.6
56.0
59.3
62.2
64.8
66.7
68.2
70.1
73.3
76.4
79.0
71.2
75.4
79.4
81.6
53.3
58.3
62.4
66.4
69.2
69.4
70.5
73.8
78.5
81.2
49.2
51.7
55.0
57.0
58.7
60.4
62.8
65.5
68.7
72.0
71.1
73.9
76.2
78.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
'1969
96.7
96.6
97.6
97.9
98.8
98.4
98.5
100.0
103.1
107.0
104.5
104.5
104.1
103.5
103.2
100.9
99.1
100.0
102.8
104.4
83.6
86.9
94.8
96.0
100.1
99.4
97.0
100.0
iSi
101.9
100.7
100.6
100.3
100.2
98.7
98.6
100.0
103.3
107.4
90.7
91.2
91.8
92.7
93.5
94.8
97.0
100.0
104.1
108.8
90.3
90.8
91.2
92.0
92.8
93.6
96.0
100.0
105.6
111.9
90.9
91.3
92.1
93.1
93.9
95.5
97.5
100.0
103.3
107.0
81.9
83.9
85.5
87.3
89.2
91.5
95.3
100.0
105.7
113.8
85.0
86.0
87.1
89.0
90.4
92.1
95.7
100.0
105.9
115.3
83.3
85.3
86.6
87.5
89.6
92.9
96.8
100.0
104.0
111.3
74.9
77.7
80.2
82.6
84.6
87.3
92.0
100.0
107.3
116.0
80.8
83.4
85.6
87.7
90.1
92.6
96.2
100.0
105.6
110.6
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
111.8
116.5
118.9
121.9
130.6
145.5
107.6
112.0
111.0
111.1
117.5
127.6
104.3
110.2
110.5
117.6
122.6
146.4
110.2
112.9
115.0
118.8
128.9
140.3
113.1
117.0
119.8
124.8
140.9
151.7
116.5
120.1
122.7
127.1
136.1
141.2
111.2
115.2
118.2
123.4
143.8
157.9
123.7
130.8
135.9
141.8
156.0
171.9
126.8
132.6
139.2
146.8
166.0
184.7
123.1
133.0
136.0
136.9
141.9
152.7
124.2
133.3
138.2
144.3
159.1
179.1
116.7
122.5
125.8
131.6
141.6
152.1
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
123.3
123.4
124 3
125.6
127.5
129.7
112.9
112.7
112.8
113.3
114.6
116.4
107.0
103.0
102.2
107.0
114.4
122.2
121.8
122.5
123.7
125.1
126.5
128.2
131.3
133.5
136.1
137.7
139.5
141.0
128.6
130.3
132.1
133.6
135.0
135.6
132.9
135.5
138.5
140.1
142.2
144.3
148.0
149.1
150.4
151.4
153.1
154.7
155.8
157.1
158.8
160.1
162.1
164.0
138.8
139.1
139.6
140.1
140.5
141.5
149.7
151.1
152.7
153.6
155.4
158.0
135.9
136.8
137.6
138.4
140.2
141.1
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
131.5
133.2
134.8
136.8
138.0
138.8
118.0
118.1
118.4
123.7
124.5
124.9
127.9
132.0
135.9
139.4
141.6
138.4
129.5
131.5
133.0
134.1
135.4
136.0
141.8
143.7
145.3
146.1
147.2
147.7
135.0
138.0
139.8
141.0
142.3
141.6
145.9
147.2
148.6
149.2
150.2
151.3
156.6
158.4
160.3
161.9
163.3
164.8
166.5
169.0
171.5
173.8
175.7
177.5
142.3
142.7
143.4
144.0
144.9
146.0
160.2
162.8
164.5
165.6
167.0
168.5
142.1
143.0
144.7
145.5
146.7
147.7
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
139.3
140.3
142.1
143.6
144.8
145.8
123. 4
124.5
127.3
127.5
126.8
127.0
134.9
133.5
135.3
138.1
142.2
147.5
136.8
137.3
138.3
139.4
140.0
140.3
147.2
148.2
148.8
149.8
150.5
151.2
138.6
139.2
139.9
140.3
140.8
140.3
152.3
153.6
154.2
155.4
156.3
157.7
166.2
167.5
168.3
169.2
169.6
170.9
179.0
180.4
180.8
181.7
182.1
183.9
146.5
147.2
148.3
149.5
149.6
150.4
170.7
172.9
174.7
175.9
177.0
178.4
148.8
149.7
150.1
150.6
151.0
151.4
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
146.9
147.5
148.2
148.9
149.2
149.3
126.6
126.8
126.5
129.9
131.3
134.0
153.2
156.1
156.6
156.5
153.7
149.6
140.6
141.0
141.7
142.3
142.9
143.0
152.2
153.0
153.8
154.6
155.1
155.4
139.8
141.1
142.3
143.5
144.4
143.9
159.5
160.1
160.7
161.3
161.5
162.2
171.9
172.7
174.6
175.7
177.7
179.0
184.8
185.6
187.0
188.2
190.7
192.0
151.1
151.9
156.1
157.0
161.7
163.2
180.4
181.7
183.2
184.6
184.2
185.8
152.0
152.4
153.8
154.4
155.2
155.7
89.2
75.9
71.8
69.1
77.4
80.2
89.5
;;;;;;
1
Includes certain items not shown separately.
2 Includes the services components of apparel, personal care, reading and recreation, and other goods and services.
3 Not available.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
222
TABLE B-45.—Consumer price indexes, seasonally adjusted, 1972-75
For urban wage earners and clerical workers
11967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Commodity groups
Special indexes
Year and month
All
All items All
All
items items less comless less med- modfood shelter ical ities
care
Selected expenditure classes
Commodities less
food
Food
Total
Durable
Nondurable
Fuel
Shel- and
ter utilities
Apparel Trans- Medand porical
up- tation care
keep
1972: Jan
Feb
Mar .
Apr
May
June
124.2
124.4
124.6
125.0
125.4
125.6
121.3
121.6
121.8
121.9
122.3
122.5
123.0
123.5
123.6
123.9
124.3
124.5
119.2
119.6
119.7
119.9
120.2
120.5
120.8
122.2
122.0
122.3
122.3
122.9
118.2
118.3
118.6
118.6
119.0
119.0
117.5
117.8
118.1
118.2
118.4
118.7
118.6
118.8
119.0
119.1
119.5
119.4
132.3
132.7
132.9
133.4
133.9
134.4
118.3
118.5
118.7
119.0
119.4
120,0
121.3
121.4
121.7
121.8
122.0
122.0
119.0
118.8
119.0
118.7
119.1
119.0
130.8
131.1
131.3
131.6
131.9
132.3
July
Aug
Sept
Oct ..
Nov
Dec .
125.9
126.2
126.7
126.8
127.1
127.5
123.1
123.2
123.7
124.2
124.7
124.9
125.1
125.3
125.8
126.1
126.6
126.9
121.0
121.3
121.9
122.2
122.7
123.0
123.3
124.0
124.6
125.4
126.3
126.5
119.4
119.6
120.3
120.3
120.6
120.9
119.1
119.5
119.9
119.6
119.8
120.2
119.7
119.9
120.4
120.8
121.2
121.5
135.1
135.5
135.4
135.6
135.8
136.5
120.4
120.5
120.9
121.2
121.8
121.9
122.1
122.0
122.7
123.2
123.6
124.0
119.6
120.1
121.7
121.0
121.5
121.5
132.6
132.6
133.0
134.2
134.4
134.7
1973: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr .
May
June
127.6
128.2
128.7
129.2
129.7
130.2
125.7
126.5
127.7
128.9
129.4
130.3
127.6
128.3
129.5
130.5
131.3
132.1
123.9
124.7
126.1
127.4
128.2
129.1
129.2
131.0
134.0
136.2
137.9
139.8
121.0
121.4
121.9
122.4
122.8
123.3
120.1
120.6
121.0
121.6
121.8
121.8
121.4
122.0
122.5
123.3
123.8
124.6
136.9
137.5
137.8
138.5
139.3
139.7
122.7
123.5
123.9
124.5
125.0
125.9
124.1
124.5
125.2
125.8
126.2
126.7
121.1
121.7
122.1
122.8
123.1
123.7
135.2
135.4
135.7
136.1
136.6
136.9
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov.
Dec
130.4
131.0
131.7
132.8
.. ._ 133.7
134.7
131.0
133.5
133.5
134.5
135.6
136.8
132.5
135.0
135.3
136.3
137.4
138.4
129.6
132.7
132.7
133.4
134.7
135.8
139.9
148.8
148.0
149.0
150.9
152.1
123.5
123.9
124.2
125.0
125.9
126.8
121.9
122.4
122.6
122.7
122.8
123.1
124.8
125.2
125.1
126.6
128.1
129.7
139.8
141.1
142.6
144.3
145.2
146.0
126.1
126.7
127.3
129.4
132.4
135.9
126.9
127.8
127.9
128.4
129.0
129.5
124.1
124.1
124.5
124.9
125.9
127.1
137.2
137.3
138.2
140.7
141.2
141.5
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
135.7
137 2
138.7
139.9
141.3
142.9
138.2
139.9
141.4
142.3
143.7
145.1
140.0
141.6
143.1
144.0
145.5
146.7
137.6
139.6
140.9
141.8
143.3
144.5
154.6
157.4
158.2
158.3
159.7
160.3
128.4
129.8
131.5
132.9
134.2
135.8
123.7
124.3
125.2
126.2
127.5
129.2
132.0
133.9
136.2
137.7
139.2
140.9
147.2
148.5
149.8
150. 8
152,0
153.2
140.5
142.6
144.0
146.3
148.2
149.7
130.1
131.3
132.6
133.6
134.5
135.6
128.4
130 1
132.5
134.0
135.9
137.8
142.5
143 5
144.7
145.6
147.2
149.3
144.4
146.2
147.7
. ... 148.8
150.1
151.1
146.4
148.3
149.9
151.2
152.5
153.8
147.9
149.7
151.3
152.6
154.0
155.3
145.5
147.5
149.1
150.5
152.0
153.2
159.4
162.2
164.8
166.9
168.8
170.4
137.5
139.3
140.8
141.8
142.9
143. 8
131.0
132.8
134.7
136.3
137.5
138.7
142.2
144.1
144.9
145.7
146.8
147.4
154.7
156.2
157.9
159.5
160.8
162.6
151.4
153.2
154.6
156.1
157.6
158.4
136.5
139.5
139.3
139.8
140.7
140.8
139.6
140.7
142.8
142.8
143.5
143.9
151.2
153.4
155.0
156.5
157.7
159.2
152.1
153.3
154.2
155.2
155.6
156.4
154.6
155.2
155.4
156.3
156.7
158.1
156.3
157.1
157.5
158.4
158.9
160.1
154.0
154.7
154.8
155.7
156.3
157.6
171.9
171.4
170.3
170.9
171.8
174.4
144.5
145.6
146.4
147.5
147.8
148.5
139.7
141.3
143.1
144.3
144.8
145.2
147.9
148.6
148.9
149.8
150.2
151.0
164.1
166.1
166.9
168.1
168.9
169.7
160.2
161.2
162.0
163.8
165.0
167.2
140. 8
141.2
141.3
141.3
141.2
141.3
143.5
144.4
145.4
146.5
147.0
148.8
161.3
163.2
164.4
165.8
166.8
167.9
157.6
158.5
159.3
160.1
161.2
161.9
160.3
160.8
161.4
162.6
163.4
164.4
162.0
162.4
163.0
163.9
165.0
165.8
159.9
160.2
160.5
161.5
162.2
162.9
177.4
177.4
177.6
179.9
180.9
181.4
149.9
150.7
151.2
151.7
152.1
152.6
146.3
147.1
148.1
148.3
148.6
149.2
152.7
153.5
153.3
154.1
154.6
155.1
170.4
170.7
171.3
172.0
173.6
174.5
168.5
169.6
171.6
173.0
174.9
176.1
142.4
143.7
142.9
143.3
143.8
144.0
151.5
153.0
156.0
155.9
157.6
158.1
169.6
170.6
172.0
173.7
173.5
174.9
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct...
Nov..
Dec
1975: Jan.
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July...
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
223
TABLE B-46.—Percent changes in consumer price indexes, major groups, 1948—75
[Percent change]
Dec.
to
Dec. a
Commodities less
food
Food
All items
Year or month
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec. 2
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec. 2
Year
to
year
Services l
Dec.
to
Dec.
Year
to
year
-0.8
-3.7
8.5
-4.0
5.3
-4.8
7.7
-1.5
6.1
3.6
6.3
4.8
1.0
7.9
2.2
.8
.5
9.6
7.4
-1.1
-1.3
-1.6
1.4
11.1
1.8
-1.5
-.2
-5.7
4.6
-.5
.2
-1.4
-.1
7.5
.9
.2
-1.1
3.6
5.2
4.6
4.2
1.9
3.2
5.3
4.4
4.3
3.3
.4
2.9
3.0
1.8
1.5
-.4
1.5
3.6
2.7
.8
-.9
3.1
2.8
2.2
-.8
3.3
4.2
-1.6
0
2.5
2.2
.8
1.5
-.7
1.0
3.1
1.1
1.3
2.3
3.1
4.5
2.7
3.7
2.0
2.5
4.0
3.8
2.9
1.5
.7
1.2
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
3.1
-.9
1.5
1.9
1.4
1.0
1.3
.9
1.4
1.3
-.3
.6
.7
1.2
.4
.3
.7
is
2.7
1.9
1.7
2.3
1.8
3.3
2.0
1.9
2.0
1.9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1.9
3.4
3.0
4.7
6.1
1.7
2.9
2.9
4.2
5.4
3.4
3.9
1.2
4.3
7.2
2.2
5.0
.9
3.6
5.1
.7
1.9
3.1
3.7
4.5
.6
1.4
2.6
3.7
4.2
2.6
4.9
4.0
6.1
7.4
2.2
3.9
4.4
5.2
6.9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
5.5
3.4
3.4
8.8
12.2
5.9
4.3
3.3
6.2
11.0
2.2
4.3
4.7
20.1
12.2
5.5
3.0
4.3
14.5
14.4
4.8
2.3
2.5
5.0
13.2
4.1
3.8
2.2
3.4
10.6
8.2
4.1
3.6
6.2
11.3
8.1
5.6
3.8
4.4
9.3
1975
7.0
9.1
6.5
8.5
6.2
9.2
8.1
9.5
1948
1949
2.7
-1.8
7.8
-1.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
5.8
5.9
.9
.6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
..
.
.
.....
.
-1.4
Change from preceding month
Unadjusted
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
-.. .
July
Aug ._
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar ._
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
Seasonally
adjusted
Unadjusted
.3
.1
.3
.1
.0
.2
0.7
.8
.8
.6
1.0
.9
0.9
1.3
1.1
.6
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
.7
1.0
.9
1.6
2.5
1.0
-.3
.7
.4
1.6
1.8
!l
.9
.4
0.6
1.0
1.5
1.1
1.4
1.3
.7
1.3
1.2
.9
.8
.7
.8
1.1
1.2
.9
.9
.8
.1
1.4
1.4
.7
1.0
1.1
-.6
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.1
.9
1.0
1.3
1.1
.9
.8
.4
.3
.3
.1
.7
.8
.6
1.1
1.0
1.2
.8
.9
.9
.5
.7
.4
.5
.4
.8
.6
.5
.3
.6
.4
.8
.7
.4
-.2
-.1
.4
1.5
.9
0
.7
.8
.8
.6
.5
.5
.8
.5
.8
.2
.5
.7
.8
.4
.6
.2
.7
1.1
.3
.5
.6
.6
.4
1.2
.2
.5
.7
.7
.5
2.4
-.3
-.2
.7
.4
.5
.7
.5
.5
.5
.9
.5
.3
.3
'.1
'.3
.5
.5
1.0
.6
1.1
.6
-!e
.4
.5
1.5
1.7
0
.1
1.3
.6
.3
1 Percent changes for services are based on unadjusted indexes since these prices have little seasonal movement.
2 Changes from December to December are based on unadjusted indexes.
Note.—The seasonally adjusted changes for the all items index are based on seasonal adjustment factors and seasonally
adjusted indexes to two decimal places.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
224
TABLE B-47.— Wholesale price indexes by major commodity groups, 1929-75
[1967=100]
Farm products and processed
foods and feeds
All commodities
Year or month
Total
Farm
products
Processed
foods
and
feeds
Industrial commodities
Total
Textile
products
and
apparel
Hides,
skins,
leather,
and
related
products
Fuels
and
related Chemicals
allied
products, and
products^
and
power i
49.1
64.1
48.6
48.9
59.4
1933 .
34.0
31.4
37.8
36.3
47.6
47.4
1939
39.8
40.0
43.3
42.8
52.3
51.5
1940...
1941
1942 .
1943....
1944
1945 „
1946....
1947
1948
1949....
40.5
45.1
50.9
53.3
53.6
54.6
62.3
76.5
82.8
78.7
94.3
101.5
89.6
41.4
50 3
64.8
75.0
75.5
78.5
90.9
109.4
117.5
101.6
82.9
88.7
80.6
44.0
47.3
50.7
51.5
52.3
53.0
58.0
70.8
76.9
75.3
103.6
108.1
98.9
45.2
48.4
52.8
52.7
52.2
52.9
61.1
83.3
84.2
79.9
51.4
54.6
56.2
57.8
59.5
60.1
64.4
76.9
90.5
86.2
52.4
57.0
63.3
64.1
64.8
65.2
70.5
93.7
95.9
87.6
1950 .
1951....
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957....
1958
1959
81.8
91.1
88.6
87.4
87.6
87.8
90.7
93.3
94.6
94.8
93.9
106.9
102.7
96.0
95.7
91.2
90.6
93.7
98.1
93.5
106.7
124.2
117.2
106.2
104.7
98.2
96.9
99.5
103.9
97.5
83.4
92.7
91.6
87.4
88.9
85.0
84.9
87.4
91.8
89.4
78.0
86.1
84.1
84.8
85.0
86.9
90.8
93.3
93.6
95.3
102.7
114.6
103.4
100.8
98.6
98.7
98.7
98.8
97.0
98.4
86.3
99.1
80.1
81.3
77.6
77.3
81.9
82.0
82.9
94.2
87.1
90.3
90.1
92.6
91.3
91.2
94.0
99.1
95.3
95.3
88.9
101.7
96.5
97.7
98.9
98.5
99.1
101.2
102.0
101.6
1960
1961
1962 ..
1963
1964 ..
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
94.9
94.5
94.8
94.5
94.7
96.6
99.8
100.0
102.5
106.5
93.7
93.7
94.7
93.8
93.2
97.1
103.5
100.0
102.4
108.0
97.2
96.3
98.0
96.0
94.6
98.7
105.9
100.0
102.5
109.1
89.5
91.0
91.9
92.5
92.3
95.5
101.2
100.0
102.2
107.3
95.3
94.8
94.8
94.7
95.2
96.4
98.5
100.0
102.5
106.0
99.5
97.7
98.6
98.5
99.2
99.8
100.1
100.0
103.7
106.0
90.8
91.7
92.7
90.0
90.3
94.3
103.4
100.0
103.2
108.9
96.1
97.2
96.7
96.3
93.7
95.5
97.8
100.0
98.9
100.9
101.8
100.7
99.1
97.9
98.3
99.0
99.4
100.0
99.8
99.9
110.4
113.9
119.1
134.7
160.1
174.9
111.7
113.8
122.4
159.1
177.4
184.2
111.0
112.9
125.0
176.3
187.7
186.7
112.1
114.3
120.8
148.1
170.9
182.6
110.0
114.0
117.9
125.9
153.8
171.5
107.1
108.6
113.6
123.8
139.1
137.9
110.3
114.0
131.3
143.1
145.1
148.5
106.2
114.2
118.6
134.3
208.3
245.1
102.2
104.2
104.2
110.0
146. 8
181.3
146.6
149.5
151.4
152.7
155.0
155.7
177.8
180.6
176.2
169.6
167.4
161.7
202.6
205.6
197.0
186.2
180.8
168.6
162.1
164.7
163.0
159.1
158.9
157.4
135.3
138.2
142.4
146.6
150.5
153.6
133.8
135.2
136.1
137.5
139.1
141.7
142.6
143.4
143.4
145.4
146.3
146.0
162.5
177.4
189.0
197.9
204.3
210.5
118.2
120.2
127.3
132.3
137.0
142.8
161.7
167.4
167.2
170.2
171.9
171.5
172.7
183.4
179.1
185.1
189.0
186.5
180.8
189.2
182.7
187.5
187.8
183.7
167.6
179.7
176.8
183.5
189.7
188.2
157.8
161.6
162.9
164.8
165.8
166.1
142.1
142.3
142.1
140.5
139.8
138.4
146.6
146.2
148.1
145.2
144.5
143.2
221.7
226.0
225.0
228.5
227.4
229.0
148.4
158.5
161.7
168.5
172.9
174.0
171.8
171.3
170.4
172.1
173.2
173.7
183.8
179.5
174.9
178.8
181.2
182.3
179.7
174.6
171.1
177.7
184.5
186.2
186.4
182.6
177.3
179.4
179.0
179.7
167.5
168.4
168.9
169.7
170.3
170.7
137.5
136.5
134.3
134.4
135.2
135.9
142.1
141.7
143.2
147.5
147.7
148.7
232.2
232.3
233.0
236.5
238.8
243.0
176.0
178.1
181.8
182.4
182.1
181.2
175.7
176.7
177.7
178.9
178.2
178.7
188.2
189.0
190.4
190.5
186.1
186.0
193.7
193.2
197.1
197.3
191.7
193.8
184.6
186.3
186.1
186.2
182.6
181.0
171.2
172.2
173.1
174.7
175.4
176.1
136.8
137.6
138.4
141.3
143.2
144.0
149.3
149.3
151.3
152.4
154.4
154.6
246.6
252.4
254.9
256.5
257.0
258.0
181.4
182.1
182.2
182.3
182.9
183.4
1929....
..
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar.._..._
Apr
May
June
July .
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1975: Jan
Feb...
Mar...
Apr
May
June...
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov .
Dec
See next page for continuation of table and for footnotes.
225
TABLE E-47.— Wholesale price indexes by major commodity groups, 1929-75—Continued
[1967=100]
Industrial commodities— Continued
Pulp,
Metals
Rubber Lumber paper,
and
and
and
and
plastic
wood
metal
allied
products products products products
Year or month
1929
59.4
25.0
40.2
1933
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
40.2
61.2
19.0
24.8
27.4
32.7
35.6
37.7
40.6
41.2
47.2
73.4
84.0
77.7
30 7
37.6
37.8
38.5
39.1
39.0
39.0
39.6
44.3
54.9
62.5
63.0
66.3
73.8
73.9
76.3
76.9
82.1
89.2
91.0
90.4
92.3
92.4
91.9
91.2
91.3
93.8
96.4
98.8
100.0
102.6
108.5
116.6
119.0
123.5
132.8
171.9
185.6
..
..
-
_.
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug . .
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
. .
Transportation
FurniMachin- ture and Nonme- equipment:
Misceltallic
ery and houseMotor laneous
equipmineral vehicles
hold
products
ment durables products
and
equip-2
ment
51.2
55.8
41.9
47.2
44.6
34.8
41.3
49.1
52.6
39.1
41.4
40.4
53.8
49.1
42.1
50.2
57.2
43.2
42.8
61.8
47.2
52.3
42.4
61.4
52.4
47.2
42.1
53.5
47.5
63.1
55.7
42.2
63.2
48.3
46.4
67.1
59.3
56.0
53.7
64.1
73.5
77.0
66.3
58.2
76.5
71.6
70.8
81.6
73.5
75.7
61.0
82.9
78.0
75.4
79.2
63.1
84.7
75.3
79.4
70.5
83.9
91.8
80.1
83.4
90.1
80.1
84.0
70.6
72.2
83.3
85.6
91.9
83.6
86.4
73.4
85.1
83.8
92.9
87.5
86.5
75.7
86.3
93.3
91.2
95.8
81.8
91.3
87.6
95.1
90.2
94.8
87.6
98.3
95.8
92.0
89.4
99.1
98.1
92.2
97.0
100.3
91.3
99.3
97.2
98.8
93.0
92.0
99.0
98.4
97.6
98.6
91.9
93.3
97.6
97.7
98.6
92.0
93.7
97.1
97.8
92.2
97.0
94.5
97.4
95.2
97.3
98.3
92.8
97.5
98.5
96.9
95.9
93.9
98.4
98.0
98.6
96.8
97.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
103.7
102.8
102.2
103.2
102.8
104.9
107.7
105.2
104.8
106.5
107.5
111.4
108.7
109.9
112.9
122.4
114.7
109.9
115.5
112.8
126.1
118.0
111.4
114.6
117.9
130.2
119.2
115.2
121.7
119.7
153.2
129.2
127.9
133.<1
139.4
144.6
139.7
174.0
147.7
161.4
57.1
61.5
71.6
73.6
72.7
70.5
70.8
70.5
72.8
70.5
85.9
105.4
95.5
89.1
90.4
102.4
103.8
103.4
103.3
102.9
103.1
99.2
96.3
96.8
95.5
95.9
97.8
100.0
103.4
105.3
108.3
109.2
109.3
112.4
136.2
150.2
95.3
91.0
91.6
93.5
95.4
95.9
100.2
100.0
113.3
125.3
113.6
127.0
144.3
177.2
183.6
176.9
74.3
88.0
85.7
85.5
85.5
87.8
93.6
95.4
96.4
97.3
98.1
95.2
96.3
95.6
95.4
96.2
98.8
100.0
101.1
104.0
108.2
110.1
113.4
122.1
151.7
170.4
117.7
119.8
123.8
129.4
133.7
135.6
183.7
184.1
191.3
200.2
198.0
192.2
131.8
132.9
137.2
144.4
146.6
147.5
145.0
148.0
154.7
161.2
168.7
174.0
126.0
127.0
129.0
130.8
134.1
137.2
119.0
120.2
121.3
122.9
124.5
126.1
138.7
142.1
144.2
146.7
150.7
152.3
122.9
123.1
123.2
123.3
124.9
126.1
123.5
124.6
125.8
128.2
133.2
134.3
139.5
143.4
145.6
147.5
148.5
149.4
188.6
183.7
180.4
169.4
165.8
165. 4
153.3
162.9
164.2
166.0
166.9
167.2
180.3
185.6
187.1
186.9
186.7
184.6
140.3
144.3
146.8
150.0
152.7
154.0
128.2
129.8
132.8
135.5
136.9
137.7
156.4
157.6
159.8
162.2
163.4
164.3
128.5
130.1
130.6
138.1
138.9
140.7
135.2
135.4
136.3
137.1
140.7
142.4
149.6
150.0
149.7
149.4
148.9
148.6
164.7
169.3
169.6
174.9
183.0
181.0
169.8
169.8
170.0
169.7
169.8
169.8
185.5
186.3
186.1
185.7
185.1
184.5
156.6
157.7
158.8
159.7
160.4
161.0
138.8
139.1
138.5
138.5
138.6
139.0
168.5
170 3
170.8
173.0
173.1
173.3
140.2
141.5
143.0
143.0
142.9
143.1
145.5
146.4
146.8
147.3
147.5
147.5
150.1
150.0
150.8
151.5
151.8
151.9
179.6
179.7
179.9
179.1
178.3
183.1
170.0
170.0
170.3
170.9
171.3
173.1
183.4
184.3
185.5
187.2
187.0
187.1
161.7
162.2
163.1
164.1
165.3
165.8
139.2
139.8
140.1
141.1
141.5
142.0
174.7
175.8
176.1
177.1
177.7
178.0
143.1
143.5
143.9
150.0
150.6
150.9
147.7
147.8
148.2
147.6
148.6
151.1
89.3
97.2
94.4
94.3
92.6
97.1
98.5
93.5
92.4
98.8
72.5
75.7
72.4
1 Prices for most items in this grouping are lagged and refer to 1 or 2 months earlier than the index month.
Index for total transportation equipment is not shown but is available beginning December 1968.
2
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
226
TABLE B-48.—Wholesale price indexes by stage of processing and by special groupings, 1947-75
[1967=1001
Intermediate materials, supplies, and components *
Crude materials
for further processing
Year or month
All
cornmodi
ties
Materials and components for
manufacturing
Materials
and
components
For
For
Com for connonponen strucdurab durab
tion
manu manu
factur factur
ing
ing
Materials
Tota
Food
stuff
and
feedstuffs
Nonfood
mate
rials
excep
fuel
Fuel
Tota
Tota
For
food
manu
factur
ing
1947
1948
1949
76.5
82.8
78.7
101.2
110.9
96.0
111.7
120.8
100.3
90.6
100.7
91.6
66.6
78.7
78.3
72,4
78.3
75.2
72.1
77.8
74.5
94.0
96.9
83.3
95.2
100.8
91.9
54.4
61.4
63.1
58.3
63.0
64.2
66.0
73.1
73.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
81.8
91.1
88.6
87.4
87.6
104.6
120.1
110.3
101.9
101.0
107.6
124.5
117.2
104.9
104.9
104.7
120.7
104.6
100.1
98.2
77.9
79.4
79.9
82.7
79.0
78.6
88.1
85.5
86.0
86.5
78.1
88.5
84.8
86.2
86.3
86.7
96.6
92.9
93.0
92.2
96.5
111.7
100.6
99.8
98.2
66.7
74.1
74.3
77.6
79.3
66.6
75.6
75.7
77.1
77.5
77.0
84.3
83.7
85.1
85.5
1955... .
1956
1957
1958
1959
87.8
90.7
93.3
94.6
94.8
97.1
97.6
99.8
102.0
99.4
95.1
93.1
97.2
103.0
96.2
103.8
107.6
106.2
102.2
105.8
78.8
84.4
89.2
90.3
91.9
88.1
92.0
94.1
94.3
95.6
88.4
92.6
94.8
95.2
96.5
89.3
89.7
91.3
93.4
90.0
98.6
100.1
101.4
100.4
102.1
83.3
88.5
91.4
92.0
94.2
80.9
88.3
91.8
92.5
93.6
88.9
93.5
94.0
94.0
96.6
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
94.9
94.5
94.8
94.5
94.7
97.0
96.5
97.5
95.4
94.5
95.1
93.8
95.7
92.9
90.8
101.4
102.5
102.0
100.7
102.4
92.8
92.6
92.1
93.2
92.8
95.6
95.0
94.9
95.2
95.5
96.5
95.3
94.7
94.9
95.9
91.1
94.0
92.0
96.6
95.2
102.1
99.9
99.3
98.4
99.1
94.3
93.0
92.9
93.0
94.8
93.1
92.2
91.5
91.5
92.3
95.9
94.6
94.2
94.5
95.4
96.6
99.8
100.0
102.5
106.5
99.3
105.7
100.0
101.6
108.3
97.1
105.9
100.0
101.3
109.1
104.5 93.5 96.8
99.2
106.7 96.3
100.0 100.0 100.0
102.1 102.3 102.3
106.8 106.4 105.9
97.4
99.3
100.0
102.2
105.8
97.6
101.9
100.0
101.5
107.0
100.0
100.8
100.0
101.3
102.5
96.8 93.8
97.1
98.6
100.0 100.0
103.3 102.3
109.3 105.6
96.2
98.8
100.0
104.9
110.9
1970
1971 .
1972
1973
1974
110.4
113.9
119.1
134.7
160.1
112.2
115.0
127.6
174.0
196.1
112.1
114.2
127.5
180.0
189.4
109.8 122.3
110.5 138.5
121.9 148.7
161.5 164.5
205.4 219.4
109.8
114.0
118.7
131.6
162.9
110.0 112.9
113.0 116.2
117.0 119.9
127.7 146.0
162.2 209.2
104.0
105.6
109.4
121.2
155.2
115.1
118.8
123.8
133.7
171.7
111.1
114.7
117.6
121.4
139.9
112.6
119.5
126.2
136.7
161.6
1975
174 9
196 9
180 0
158.3
176.4
182.4
186.3
190.3
205.4
207.4
213.6
142.0
144.6
149.1
152.8
157.6
60.9
209.4
173.5
184.0
186.4
180.4
187.0
191.5
188.4
201.3
205.6
200.6
192.9
86.5
78.5
178.7
138.9
141.6
146.8
150.9
156.6
160.7
174.7
146.6
149.5
151.4
152.7
55.0
55.7
191.8 188.3
203.2 201.4
207.2 206.8
197.6 210.4
182.6 214.1
176.9 203.7
164.6 202.3
271.5
1974: Jan
Feb....
Mar
Apr
May....
June
132.6
135.0
140.8
146.4
150.2
154.1
144.7
146.5
154.0
161.1
169.6
174.7
126.1
127.2
129.4
131.1
135.2
138.2
145.0
147.0
151.1
156.0
160.7
163.0
61.7
67.4
67.2
70.2
71.9
71.5
94.5
203.5
96.8
00.3
98.2
93.9
184.9 210.0 222.0
196.5 213.1 228.4
187.4 208.1 236.8
192.9 205.4 244.3
190.9 200.7 251.9
187.8 188.8 263.7
66.3
74.0
73.8
76.8
78.6
78.4
166.7 205.9
172.7 221.2
174.1 222.6
176.6 234.5
80.7 265.8
79.8 257.3
159.8
166.0
166.6
169.5
171.1
170.7
180.2
184.9
186.5
185.9
186.2
185.5
41.6
45.6
48.0
50.2
52.6
53.6
166.6
169.3
170.9
169.7
169.7
170.1
71.8
71.3
70.4
72.1
73.2
73.7
89.3
85.8
82.4
89.4
96.7
97.1
182.4
77.1
72.9
81.7
90.9
92.1
84.1 266.7
84.7 265.2
84.4 256.6
86.2 266.3
88.1 276.4
87.6 274.1
79.1
78.8
78.1
79.0
78.4
78.4
80.1
79.7
78.0
77.9
77.0
76.3
245.1
236.4
220.0
213.7
200.6
94.1
172.2
72.4
71.9
72.7
73.5
73.3
187.1
86.9
86.9
87.6
87.7
87.3
55.4
57.3
57.2
57.3
57.4
57.9
171.9
173.7
173.9
175.2
177.0
177.0
75.7
76.7
77.7
78.9
78.2
78.7
03.0
04.1
07.5
06.8
99.8
01.3
02.1
01.9
04.9
04.6
95.4
95.1
83.8
89.6
94.2
92.7
90.6
93.8
278.0
73.2
75.6
74.8
70.0
81.3
79.3
80.9
81.0
82.2
82.3
82.6
77.4
78.8
78.6
80.0
80.1
79.9
04.0
10.7
04.1
00.0
95.3
89.2
74.0
75.2
75.9
77.4
78.7
79.5
87.1
87.6
88.1
91.4
91.2
91.4
58.1
58.6
59.0
59.6
60.5
60.7
176.9
177.2
177.6
178.4
178.5
179.8
1965
1966...
1967
1968...
1969
.
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec.
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar .
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
See next page for continuation of table and for footnotes.
227
TABLE B-48.—Wholesale price indexes by stage of processing and by special groupings, 1947-75—
Continued
11967=1001
Finished goods
Special groupings
Consumer finished goods
Year or month
Producer
finished
goods
Crude
materials 2
IntermeCondiate sumer
matefinrials,
ished
supgoods
plies, excludand
ing
com- foods
ponents 3
Manufactured
goods
Total
Foods
Other
nondurable
goods
74.0
79.9
77.6
80.5
86.5
82.5
82.8
90.4
83.1
80.7
85.8
82.3
74.6
79.7
81.8
55.4
69.4
63.4
79.2
92.5
84.0
70.0
76.1
74.2
79.0
84.0
82.2
72.3
78.2
75.5
59.4
65.4
67.3
79.0
86.5
86.0
85.1
85.3
83.9
91.8
90.7
89.2
89.1
84.7
95.2
94.3
89.4
88.7
83.6
90.0
87.8
88.6
88.9
82.7
88.2
88.9
89.6
90.3
64.9
71.2
72.4
73.6
74.5
93.6
102.9
93.1
92.4
88.0
77.7
87.0
84.3
85.3
85.7
83.5
89.5
88.3
89.1
89.4
78.4
87.0
85.1
85.0
85.7
69 6
76.3
76.7
78.4
79.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
85.5
87.9
91.1
93.2
93.0
88.5
89.8
92.4
94.4
93.6
86.5
86.3
89.3
94.5
90.1
89.4
91.1
93.2
92.6
94.0
91.2
94.3
97.1
98.4
99.6
76.7
82.4
87.5
89.8
91.5
96.6
102.3
100.9
96.9
102.3
88.3
92.6
95.0
94.8
96.4
90.1
92.3
94.6
94.7
95.9
86.6
90.0
92.8
93.8
94.6
82.2
87.5
90.9
92.2
94.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
93.7
93.7
94.0
93.7
94.1
94.5
94.3
94.6
94.1
94.3
92.1
91.7
92.5
91.4
91.9
94.7
94.7
94.8
95.1
94.8
99.2
98.8
98.3
97.8
98.2
91.7
91.8
92.2
92.4
93.3
98.3
97.2
95.6
94.3
97.1
96.8
95.5
95.3
95.0
95.6
96.3
96.2
96.0
96.0
95.9
94.8
94.4
94.5
94.3
94.8
94.1
93.6
93.5
93.5
94.6
95.7
98.8
100.0
102.9
106.6
96.1
99.4
100.0
102.7
106.5
95.4
101.6
100.0
103.7
110.0
95.9
97.8
100.0
102.2
105.0
97.9
98.5
100.0
102.2
104.0
94.4
96.8
100.0
103.5
106.9
100.9
104.5
100.0
102.0
110.6
96.9
98.9
100.0
102.6
106.1
96.6
98.1
100.0
102.1
104.6
96.3
99.1
100.0
102.6
106.3
95.8
97.9
100.0
103.5
107.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
110.4
113.5
117.2
127.9
147.5
109.9
112.7
116.6
129.2
149.3
113.5
115.2
121.7
146.4
166.9
108.3
111.3
113.6
120.5
146.8
107.0
110.9
113.2
115.8
126.3
111.9
116.6
119.5
123.5
141.0
118.8
122.7
131.1
155.2
219.1
110.0
114.3
118.9
128.1
159.5
107.7
111.2
113.5
118.6
138.6
110.2
113.8
117.9
129.2
154.1
112.0
117.0
121.1
127.4
148.6
1975
- .. 163.4
163.6
181.0
163.0
138.2
162.5
225.1
178.6
153.1
171.1
165.6
137.4
140.1
141.0
142.1
143.8
144.0
139.9
143.2
143.8
144.7
146.0
145.4
162.7
167.0
164.6
163.1
162.4
157.0
130.2
134.0
137.8
141.2
144.3
147.7
119.6
120.2
120.9
122.0
123.7
125.0
128.3
129.3
130.9
132.4
135.9
138.7
188.2
202.7
212.2
224.8
216.5
217.5
137.9
140.6
145.8
150.8
156.1
159.6
125.6
128.4
131.0
133.5
136.0
138.6
138.6
140.9
143.6
146.0
149.3
151.5
133.8
135.0
137.9
141.1
145.6
148.4
148.1
150.6
151.1
155.2
157.7
158.0
149.9
152.1
153.2
156.0
158.6
158.7
164.6
167.7
168.7
171.4
177.4
175.9
150.6
153.0
154.2
155.7
156.2
156.9
126.8
127.3
128.4
133.1
133.8
135.3
141.5
145.2
148.0
151.9
154.1
155.3
228.9
229.5
229.8
229.0
228.7
221.2
164.5
169.6
170.6
172.1
173.0
173.2
141.1
142.7
143.9
146.7
147.2
148.3
156.4
161.8
162.4
165.2
166.2
156.9
151.7
154.8
156.6
158.6
159.6
160.3
159.3
159.3
158.9
160.0
161.2
162.5
159.8
159.4
158.5
159.7
161.1
162.6
177.0
175.5
172.6
174.9
177.7
180.3
158.2
158. 8
158.9
159.5
160.4
161.6
135.9
136.3
136.9
137.0
137.0
137.3
157.4
158.3
159.7
160.7
161.2
161.7
219.4
221.0
218.4
222.7
225.8
226.3
175.0
175.9
176.4
177.3
177.7
177.8
149.4
149.8
150.2
150.6
151.1
152.0
168.2
168.0
167.8
168.7
169.5
170.1
162.0
163.2
163.7
164.4
164.9
165.1
- - 164.5
_ --. 164.9
166.2
168.0
168.0
168.5
165.0
165.3
166.7
168.3
168.1
168.5
184.8
183.9
186.5
187.3
185.5
185.6
163.2
165.1
166.1
167.2
168.0
168.9
137.4
137.4
137.7
141.1
141.8
142.2
162.4
163.0
164.0
166.5
167.4
168.0
223.4
225.8
231.5
228.6
226.5
231.2
178.3
179.3
179.9
181.4
182.0
182.6
152.9
154.1
154.8
156.8
157.6
158.3
171.4
172.3
173.0
174.5
174.4
174.7
165.2
165.7
166.2
168.2
168.8
169.4
Total
1947
1948
1949
1950.
1951
1952
1953
1954
.
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
.
1974- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1975- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
--
Durable
goods
Total
Durable
i Includes, in addition to subgroups shown, processed fuels and lubricants, containers, and supplies.
> Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaf tobacco.
* Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds.
Note.—For a listing of the commodities included in each sector, see monthly report, "Wholesale Prices and Price
Indexes," January-February 1967.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
228
TABLE B-49.—Wholesale price indexes for selected groupings, seasonally adjusted,
1972-75
[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Farm products and
processed foods
and feeds
Year and
month
Special groupings
Intermediate
mateCrude rials,
mate- suprials ! plies,
and
components a
Producer
finished
goods
Total
Consumer finished goods
Farm
products
Processed
foods
and
feeds
116.9
118 2
117.9
119.3
120.4
119.7
117.2
118 4
117.7
119.8
121.7
121.2
116.7
117.7
117.9
118.9
119.1
118.8
125.7
125 9
128.5
127.8
129.0
129.4
116.8
117 1
117.5
117.8
118.0
118.5
118.2
118.7
118.9
119.3
119.4
119.6
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
122.9
123.1
124.6
125.4
128 1
133.3
126.6
127.7
129.6
129.1
132 5
139.3
120.4
120.2
121.8
122.9
125.2
129.7
130.6
132.7
133.1
135.0
137 3
138.0
119.0
119.4
119.7
120.3
120 9
121.3
1973: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
136 3
140.4
147.2
149.2
155.5
161.5
143 3
147.5
158.1
161.7
170.2
178.4
131.7
135.5
140.4
141.5
145.9
150.7
139 2
140.9
141.9
145.1
148.6
152.2
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
156.0
182.9
173.5
169.7
168.6
168.8
172.1
211.8
201.8
193.6
189.9
189.9
145.5
164.9
156.3
154.5
154.8
155.7
Mar
Apr
May
June
176.6
177 6
173.9
171.7
168.2
159.3
200.6
200 4
193.5
187.9
180.8
164.5
July
Aug
Sept
Oct.—
Nov
Dec
172.4
180.9
179.3
188.3
194.4
187.2
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Foods
Other
nondurable
goods
Durable
goods
Total
114.5
115 1
114.7
114.9
115.5
115.9
117.9
119 9
118.3
118.4
119.7
120.2
112.1
112 1
112.4
112.7
112.9
113.2
112,5
112 7
113.0
113.1
113.0
113.3
115.9
116 4
116.5
116.9
117.2
117.6
119.4
120 0
120.0
120.3
120.6
121.1
119.8
119.9
120.0
119.8
120.0
120.2
116.8
117.3
117.7
117.8
118 7
119.5
122.3
123.0
123.4
123.9
125.6
127.9
113.5
114.0
114.5
114.9
115 5
115.7
113.5
113.9
114.7
112.8
112.8
113.4
117.8
118.4
118.7
119.2
119 7
121.3
121.4
121.7
122.0
121.9
122 3
122.7
121 7
122.6
124.8
126.0
127.1
128.0
120 4
121.1
121.7
122.3
123.1
123.4
121 0
122.3
125.2
126.4
127.2
128.5
130 9
133.2
138.7
141.0
142.3
144.7
115 5
117.4
118.1
118.7
119.3
119.7
113 3
113.5
114.4
115.2
115.6
115.9
121 8
123.5
125.4
126.4
128.0
129.8
122 8
123.6
125.1
126.2
127.3
127.5
153.8
156.5
161.8
166.4
175.4
181.4
128.1
129.0
130.0
131.3
133.2
135.9
123.6
123.9
124.3
125.2
125.8
126.7
128.5
133.9
133.2
133.8
134.9
135.8
144.5
158.3
155.6
155.5
155.9
156.6
120.1
120.7
121.2
122.8
124.9
127.2
116.1
116.5
116.9
117.1
117.0
117.5
128.6
133.1
131.5
132.4
133.5
135.8
127.3
127.9
128.3
129.3
130.8
132.4
161.1
162.6
161.5
161.4
160.0
156.0
188.4
200 7
211.6
222.1
215.0
216.6
138.7
140 7
145.8
150.3
155.0
158.6
128.2
129 2
130.9
132.4
135.9
138.7
139.6
142 5
143.1
144.7
146.1
145.3
161.4
165 7
162.6
163.3
162.9
156.7
130.5
134.1
137.8
141.1
144.0
147.1
119.0
119 7
120.9
121.9
123.6
125.0
139.0
140.9
143.3
146.1
148.9
151.2
134.2
135 0
137.6
140.5
145.2
148.1
180.8
186.8
184.4
193.1
194.0
186.1
166.9
177.9
177.0
185.0
193.8
188.2
228.9
230.2
231.0
231.5
230. 1
223.7
163.8
169.1
170.3
172.4
174.0
174.8
141.5
145.1
148.0
152.1
154.4
155.3
149.6
151.6
153.2
156.9
160.2
158.9
164.3
167.2
168.5
173.3
180.5
176.6
150.0
152.5
154.2
156.0
156.8
157.8
126.8
127.6
129.6
133.5
133.9
134.9
155.6
161.3
161.9
165.9
167.0
167.7
151.2
154.3
156.6
158.9
160.4
161.3
182.5
176.5
172.7
181.0
182.1
179.6
177.9
170.2
168.1
179.3
184.5
181.7
185.3
180.3
175.7
181.9
180.3
178.1
219.6
218.8
217.7
220.1
224.2
225.4
176.1
176.1
176.4
176.8
176.5
176.7
157.2
158.1
159.7
160.7
161.2
161.7
159.5
158.6
157.7
159.7
161.3
162.4
175.6
174.1
170.6
175.1
178.2
179.9
158.5
159.0
158.9
159.3
160.1
161.0
135.2
135.8
136.9
136.9
136.9
137.3
168.7
168.0
167.5
168.9
169.0
169.8
162.5
163.2
163.4
163.7
164.4
164.8
187.8
186.4
190.6
193.8
191.5
186.7
193.7
190.7
198.9
203.2
198.0
196.4
183.9
184.5
186.3
187.7
186.5
181.0
223.4
226.5
232.7
231.1
227.9
233.8
177.6
178.8
179.5
181.8
183.1
184.3
162.4
162.8
164.0
166.7
167.7
168.0
164.7
164.8
166.7
169.3
169.8
168.7
184.4
183.3
186.3
189.4
188.7
186.3
162.5
164.6
166.1
167.5
168.7
169.9
137.4
137.7
139.0
141.5
141.9
141.8
170.5
171.8
172.5
175.2
175.3
175.6
164.7
165.2
166.2
168.5
169.6
170.4
Total
1972: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Nov
Dec
1974: Jan
Feb
Manufactured
goods
1
Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaf tobacco.
2 Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
229
Durable
goods
TABLE R-50.—Percent changes in wholesale price indexes, major groups, 1948-75
[Percent change)
Year or month
All
commodities
Industrial
commodities
Farm products
and processed
foods and feeds
Consumer finished goods
Total
Foods
All except foods
Dec.
to
Dec.i
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec.i
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec.1
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
DecJ
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec.i
Year
to
year
Dec.
to
Dec.i
Year
to
year
1948
1949.
1.5
-6.1
8.2
-5.0
5.0
-5.0
8.6
-2.1
-6.8
7.6
-8.9 -11.7
1.2
-5.6
7.5
-4.6
-2.4
-7.4
9.2
-8.1
4.C
-4.5
6.3
-2.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
14.7
1.2
-3.4
5
-6
3.9
11.4
-2.7
-1 4
14.0
.4
-1.4
1 4
3.6
10.4
-2.3
8
.2
4.8
13.8
-3.9
-6 5
10.2
2.7
-3.1
- l
.2
17.0
3.5
-8.2
-2 3
-2.6
1.7
9.4
-1.2
-1 7
-.1
13.3
5.3
-5.9
-2 2
-1 9
1.9
12.4
-.9
-5 2
-8
8.2
.9
-1.1
16
1.6
7.2
-1.3
.9
.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1 6
4.5
2.0
.5
2
4.3
-6 4
6.0
4.2
-.2
-4 4
-4.7
-.7
3.4
4.7
-4 7
-.1
3.1
3.0
.2
-7
1.5
2.9
2.2
— 8
-2.9
3.6
5.3
.4
-3 7
-2 5
-.2
3.5
5.8
—4 7
1 7
2.5
1.7
.2
8
.8
2.4
2.5
.1
1.3
1960
1961.
1962
1963
1964
.5
-.2
0
.2
1.0
-.2
.3
-.5
.2
5.2
-1.8
.5
-1.3
.4
2.2
-.4
.9
-1 2
.4
-.3
-.1
1
.1
.4
-.1
-.2
0
-.1
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
6.5
-1.6
3.7
6.1
3.8
.9
1.7
2.1
2.0
2.9
.7
1.6
1.9
2.1
2 4
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974.
. ....
q
-.6
3
3.3
2.9
1 4
2
4.2
1.1
.9
1 2
2 2
4.5
2.8
.3
18
.4
.1
-.4
.3
3
.2
-.6
-.1
-.2
.5
.6
0
-.5
0
- l
.5
3.9
-.6
.6
-2 1
0
0
1.1
-1.0
-.6
2.1
-.8
.1
-.4
.2
3 4
1.7
10
2.8
4 8
2.0
3.3
.2
2.5
39
1.4
2.2
1.9
2.7
3.9
1.3
2.2
1.5
2.5
3.4
9.5
.2
-1 8
3.5
7 5
4.2
6.6
-3.4
2.4
5.5
4.0
1.6
1.?
3.1
4.9
1.9
3.4
.6
2.7
3.7
9.1
1.4
-.4
4.8
8.2
2 2
4.0
6 5
15.4
20.9
3 7
3.2
4 6
13.1
18.9
3.6
3.2
3.6
10.7
25.6
3 8
3.6
3 4
6.8
22.2
-1 4
6.0
14 4
26.7
11.0
3.4
1.9
7.6
30.0
11.5
3.3
4.5
13.6
17.1
1.4
3.2
2.5
3.5
10.8
15.6
-2.5
5.9
8.0
22.5
13.0
1.5
5.6
20.3
14.0
1.8
2,2
7.4
20.5
3.9
3.0
3.2
2.1
4.5
16.9
4 2
9 2
6.0
11 5
-3
3.8
6.2
9.6
5.5
8 4
6.7
10.5
q
1975
.2
3.2
Change from preceding month
SeaSeaSeaUnad- sonally Unad- sonally Unad- sonally
adadadjusted
justed
justed
justed
justed
justed
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec
1
Unadjusted
Seasonally Unadadjusted
justed
Seasonally Unadadjusted
justed
Seasonally
adjusted
3.4
2.0
1.3
.9
1.5
.5
2.9
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.2
.0
2.3
2.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.2
5.8
1.6
-2.4
-3.7
-1.3
-3.4
4.6
.6
-2.1
-1.3
-2.0
-5.3
3.2
2.4
.4
.6
.9
2.8
2.1
.4
1.1
1.0
-.5
4.5
2.6
-1.4
-.9
-.4
-3.3
3.1
2.7
-1.9
.4
-.2
-3.8
2.0
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.8
3.9
3.5
-.1
1.8
1.0
-.2
3.9
3.7
-.0
2.9
1 4
-.9
2.7
2.4
.8
1.2
.6
.2
2.9
2.5
1.0
1.5
.8
.4
6.8
6.2
-2.3
3.4
2.1
-1.3
8.2
4.9
-.9
5.0
3.2
-3.7
3.1
1.5
.7
1.8
1.7
.1
3.0
1.3
1.1
2.4
2.1
-.8
4.8
1.9
.6
1.6
3.5
-.8
4.9
1.8
.8
2.8
4.2
-2.2
1.8
1.1
.8
1.9
.3
.7
1.8
1.4
1.3
1.8
.3
.7
.2
-.3
-.5
1.0
6
.3
-.2
-.8
-.5
1.5
4
-.1
.8
.5
.3
.5
4
.2
.5
.4
.1
.1
2
.4
-1.4
-2.3
-2.6
2.2
1 3
.6
-2.5
-3.3
-2.2
4.8
6
-1.4
.7
-.3
-.6
.8
9
.9
.4
-.6
-.6
1.3
1.0
.7
.6
-.8
-1.7
1.3
1 6
1.5
-.6
-.9
-2.0
2.6
1.8
1.0
.7
.3
.3
.3
.3
.6
.6
.1
.2
.2
.3
.5
1.2
.6
.6
.7
-.4
.3
1.2
.8
.6
1.8
.0
-.4
.3
.6
.5
.9
.4
.4
.4
.6
3.2
.4
.7
.1
-2.3
-.1
4.6
-.7
2.3
1.7
1 2
-2'. 5
1.5
.2
.8
1.0
1.4
.1
1.2
1.6
.3
-.6
2.5
-.5
1.4
.4
-1.0
.1
2.5
-.6
1.6
1.7
-.4
-1.3
.6
.8
.6
1.0
1.0
1.2
.5
.3
L2
.6
.6
'.2
.'5
.4
Changes from December to December are based on unadjusted indexes.
Note.—The seasonally adjusted changes for all commodities and industrial commodities are based on seasonal adjustdexes to two decimal places.
ment factors and seasonally adjusted inde:
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
230
MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCE
TABLE B-51.—Money stock measures, 1947-75
[Averages of daily Figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Overall measures
Components and related items
M2
3
(Mi plus (M 2Mplus
time
Mi
deposits
(Currency deposits
at nonplus
at combank
mercial
demand
thrift
deposits)
banks
instituother than
large CD's) tions)
Year and
month
1947: Dec
1948: Dec
1949: Dec
Deposits at commercial banks
Currency i
Time and savings 3
Demand 2
Total
Large
CD's*
Other
Deposits
at nonbank
thrift
institutions 5
U.S.
Government
demand
deposits
(unadjusted) «
113.1
111.5
111.2
26.4
25.8
25.1
86.7
85.8
86.0
35.4
36.0
36.4
1.0
1.8
2.8
116.2
122.7
127.4
128.8
132 3
135.2
136 9
135 9
141. 1
143.4
91.2
96.5
100.1
101.1
104.9
107.4
108.7
107 6
112.6
114.5
36.7
38.2
41. 1
44.5
48.3
50.0
51.9
57 4
65.4
67.4
67.4
92.9
2.4
2.7
4.9
3.8
5.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.9
4.9
102.3
113.4
126.4
141.4
157.3
169.8
177.3
194.2
206.7
215.0
4,7
4.9
5.6
5.1
5.5
4.6
3.4
5.0
5.0
5.6
1950:
1^51:
1952:
1953:
19541955:
1956'
19571958:
1959:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
210.9
303.8
25.0
26.1
27.3
27.7
27.4
27.8
28.2
28 3
28.6
28.9
1960:
1961:
1962:
1963:
1964:
1965:
1966:
1967:
1968:
1969:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec ....
Dec
Dec
Dec ....
144.2
148.7
150.9
156.5
163.7
171.3
175.4
186.9
201.7
208.7
217.1
228.6
242.9
258.9
277.1
301.3
317.8
349.6
382.3
392.2
319.3
342.1
369.2
400.3
434.4
471.2
495.1
543.7
589.0
607.2
29.0
29.6
30.6
32.5
34.3
36.3
38.3
40.4
43.4
46.1
115.2
119.1
120.3
124.1
129.5
134.9
137.0
146.5
158.2
162.7
72.9
82.7
97.6
112.0
126.2
146.3
157.9
183.1
204.1
194.5
2.8
5.7
9.6
12.8
16.2
15.4
20.5
23.5
11.0
72.9
79.9
92.0
102.3
113.4
130.1
142.5
162.7
180.6
183.5
1970:
1971:
1972:
1973:
1974:
1975:
Dec
Dec . Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec *>....
221.4
235.3
255.8
271.5
284.4
296.4
425.3
473.0
525.7
572.2
613.5
667.5
657.0
746.2
844.9
919.6
981.7
1,093.9
49.1
52.6
56.9
61.6
67.9
73.8
172.3
182.7
198.9
209.9
216.5
222.6
229.3
271.2
313.8
364.5
419.3
454.5
25.4
33.5
43.9
63.8
90.3
83.3
203.9
237.7
269.9
300.7
329.1
371.2
231.7
273.1
319.1
347.4
368.2
426.4
7.3
6.9
7.4
6.3
4.9
4.1
270.9
273.1
275.2
276.6
277.6
280.0
575. 5
580.8
585.5
589.4
591.6
597.1
925. 1
932.4
939.8
945.7
948.6
955.8
62.0
62.7
63.3
63.9
64.3
64.6
208.9
210.4
211.9
212.8
213.3
215.4
371.0
375.9
378.3
386.7
392.5
398.4
66.4
68.2
68.0
73.9
78.5
81.3
304.6
307.7
310.3
312.7
314.0
317.1
349.6
351. 5
354.4
356.3
357.0
358.7
8.1
6.6
6.4
6.0
7.6
6.1
280.4
280.5
280.7
281.6
283.6
284.4
599.6
601.9
603.4
607.6
611.6
613.5
959. 6
962.6
965. 0
970.7
976.9
981.7
64.8
65.5
65.9
66.5
67.4
67.9
215.6
215.0
214.8
215.2
216.2
216.5
402,8
405.2
407.5
412.1
413.5
419.3
83.6
83.8
84.8
86.2
85.5
90.3
319.2
321. 5
322.7
325.9
328.0
329.1
360.0
360.7
361.7
363.2
365.3
368.2
5.4
4.0
5.5
3.7
3.4
4.9
Mar
Apr
May
June
281.6
282.4
285. 0
285.8
288.5
293.0
614.8
619.1
625.1
628.9
635.9
646.1
986.3
994.4
,005.9
,015.7
, 028. 3
, 045. 3
68.2
68.7
69.4
69.5
70.2
71.1
213.4
213.7
215.6
216.3
218.3
221.9
426.0
428.8
429.9
431.5
432.9
437.1
92.7
92.1
89.8
88.4
85.5
84.1
333.2
336.7
340.1
343.1
347.4
353.1
371. 5
375.3
380.8
386.8
392.4
399.2
4.0
3.3
3.8
4.0
4.1
4.1
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec?
293.5
294.2
294.7
294.1
297.1
296.4
650.5
653.7
656.3
658.6
665.7
667.5
,055.9
, 064. 2
,071.1
, 077. 7
, 088. 8
,093.9
71.4
71.9
72.0
72.5
73.4
73.8
222.1
222.3
222.7
221.5
223.7
222.6
439.1
437.4
440.7
445.8
450.0
454.5
82.1
78.0
79.1
81.3
81.4
83.3
357.0
359.4
361.7
364.6
368.6
371.2
405.4
410.5
414.8
419.0
423.1
426.4
3.3
2.6
3.8
3.3
3.5
4.1
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr _
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec_ .
1975: Jan.
Feb
.
1
Currency
2
outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of all commercial banks.
Demand deposits other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, less cash items in
process
of collection and Federal Reserve float, plus foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks.
3
Time and savings deposits other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government. Effective
June
1966, excludes balances accumulated for payment of personal loans (about $1.1 billion).
4
Negotiable time certificates of deposit issued in denominations of $100,000 or more by large weekly reporting commercial
banks.
5
Average of the beginning- and end-of-month deposits of mutual savings banks, savings capital at savings and loan
associations,
and credit union shares.
6
Deposits at all commercial banks.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
231
TABLE B-52.—Commercial bank loans and investments, 1930-75
[Billions of dollars]
Loans
End of year
or month 1
Total loans
and investments 2
Total a
Investments
Commercial
and
industrial
U.S. Government securities
Other
securities
Loans plus
loans sold to
bank affiliates 2
1930: June
1933: June
1939
48.9
30.4
40.7
34.5
16.3
17.2
5.0
7.5
16.3
9.4
6.5
7.1
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945... .
1946
1947
1948 .
43.9
50.7
67.4
85.1
105.5
124.0
114.0
116.3
114.2
18.8
21.7
19.2
19.1
21.6
26.1
31.1
38.1
42.4
17.8
21.8
41.4
59.8
77.6
90.6
74.8
69.2
62.6
7.4
7.2
6.8
6.1
6.3
7.3
8.1
9.0
9.2
1948
1949
113.0
118.7
41.5
42.0
62.3
66.4
9.2
10.3
1950
1951...
1952
1953
1954 .
1955
1956
1957
1958
19593
124.7
130.2
139.1
143.1
153.1
157.6
161.6
166.4
181.2
188.7
51.1
56.5
62.8
66.2
69.1
80.6
88.1
91.5
95.6
110.5
39.4
61.1
60.4
62.2
62.2
67.6
60.3
57.2
56.9
65.1
57.7
12.4
13.4
14.2
14.7
16.4
16.8
16.3
17.9
20.5
20.5
I960..
1961
1962 .
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 *
197.4
212.8
231.2
250.2
272.4
300.1
4 316. 1
352.0
390.2
401.7
116.7
123.6
137.3
153.7
172.9
198.2
4213.9
231.3
258.2
279.1
42.1
43.9
47.6
52.1
58.4
69.5
78.6
86.2
95.9
105.7
59.9
65.3
64.7
61.5
60.8
57.1
53.5
59.4
60.7
51.5
20.8
23.9
29.2
35.0
38.7
44.8
M8.7
61.3
71.3
71.1
283.0
1970
1971 .
1972
1973
1974
1975 P
435.5
484.8
556.4
630.3
s 687. 1
717.2
291.7
• 320. 3
377.8
447.3
8 498. 2
494.7
110.0
115.9
T129.7
155.8
s 182. 6
177.7
57.9
60.1
61.9
52.8
48.8
77.9
85.9
• 104. 4
116.7
130.2
s 140. 1
144.6
294.7
• 323. 1
380.4
451.6
8«>503.0
499.1
Mar
Apr.
May
June
690.0
692.6
697.0
699.1
702.0
705.0
501.3
498.9
498.3
495.0
492.8
489.9
184.1
182.5
180.9
180.5
179.1
176.3
48.7
53.2
58.5
64.0
68.2
72.4
140.0
140.5
140.2
140.1
141.0
142.7
505.9
503.4
503.0
499.6
497.5
494.6
July p
Aug p _ _ _
Septp
Oct*
NOVP
Dec p
706.4
710.4
711.6
715.0
721.3
717.2
489.6
490.7
490.4
494. 1
498.0
494.7
177.6
177.5
176.4
177.9
178.9
177.7
73.4
75.6
77.1
75.1
76.3
77.9
143.4
144.1
144.1
145.8
147.0
144.6
494.1
495.2
494.9
498.8
502.7
499.1
Seasonally adjusted
1975: Jan
Feb
1
Data are for last Wednesday of month or year (except June 30 and December 31 call dates).
Adjusted to exclude all interbank loans beginning 1948 and domestic bank loans only beginning January 1959.
Beginning January 1959, loans and investments are reported gross, without valuation reserves deducted, rather than
net4 of valuation reserves, as in earlier periods.
Effective June 1966, balances accumulated for payment of personal loans (about $1.1 billion) are excluded from loans
at all commercial banks, and certain certificates of CCC and Export-Import Bank totaling about $1 billion are included in
other securities rather than in loans.
' Beginning June 1969, data include all bank-premises subsidiaries and other significant majority-owned domestic
subsidiaries;
earlier data include commercial banks only.
8
Beginning June 1971, Farmers Home Administration insured notes totaling about $0.7 billion are classified as other
securities
rather than as loans.
7
Beginning June 1972, commercial and industrial loans were reduced by about $0.4 billion due to loan reclassifications
at 8one large bank.
Beginning June 1974, the merger of a large mutual savings bank and a nonmember commercial bank increased total
loans and investments by $0.6 billion, loans by $0.5 billion, and other securities by $0.1 billion.
Beginning November 1974, the liquidation of one large bank reduced total loans and investments by $1.5 billion, total
loans by $1.0 billion, commercial and industrial loans by $0.6 billion, and other securities by $0.5 billion. In addition, commercial and industrial loans were increased by $0.1 billion due to loan reclassifications at one large bank.
9
Beginning August 1974, reflects new definition of affiliates included and different group of reporting banks. Amount of
total loans sold was reduced by $0.1 billion.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
1
1
232
TABLE B-53.—Total funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors, 1967-75
[Billions of dollars]
Item
Total funds raised
U S Government
Public debt securities
Agency issues and mortgages
Foreign
Corporate equities
Debt instruments
Private domestic nonfinancial sectors
Corporate equities
Debt instruments
..
__.
Debt capital instruments
State and local government obligations
._-.Corporate bonds
Mortgages
Home
Multi-family residential
Commercial
_.
Farm
Other debt instruments
Consumer credit
Bank loans n.e.c. _
Open-market paper
Other
By borrowing sector' Total
State and local governments
Households
Nonfinancial business
Farm
Nonfarm noncorporate
Corporate
Total funds advanced to nonfinancial sectors.
1967
1968
82.4
13 0
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
95 9
91 8
98 2
147 4
169 4
187 4
180 1
13 4
-3 6
12 8
25 5
17 3
9 7
12 0
8 9
4.1
10 3
3.1
-1 3
-2.4
12 9
j
26 0
_ 5
13 9
3 4
7 7
2 0
12 0
4 0
2.8
3 7
2 7
4 6
4 3
7 5
15 4
1
4.0
2
2.7
5
3.2
1
2 7
o
4 6
— 4
4 7
_ 2
7 7
_ 3
15 7
65.4
79.7
91.8
82 7
117 3
147 8
170 1
152 7
2.4
63.0
-.2
79.9
3.4
88.4
5 7
77 0
11 4
105.8
10 9
136 9
7 4
162 7
4 1
148 6
44.5
49.5
49.6
56 7
83 2
93 8
96 1
92 9
7.8
14 7
22.0
11 5
3.6
4.7
2 3
9.5
12 9
27.1
15 1
3.4
6.4
2 2
9.9
12 0
27.7
15 7
4.7
5.3
19
11.2
19 8
25.7
12 8
5.8
5.3
18
17 6
18 8
46.9
26 1
8.8
10 0
2 0
14 4
12 2
67 3
39 6
10.3
14 8
2 6
13 7
9 2
73.2
43 3
8.4
17.0
4 4
17 4
19 7
55 9
31 7
7.8
11.5
49
18.5
30.4
38 8
20 3
22 6
43 0
66.6
55 6
4.5
9.8
17
2.6
10.0
13.6
18
5.0
10 4
15.5
3 0
9.9
6 0
6.7
3 0
4 6
11 2
7.8
-1 2
4 8
19 2
18.9
_ 5
5 5
22 9
35.8
— 4
8.3
9 6
27.3
6 6
12 1
65 4
79 7
91 8
82 7
117 3
147 8
170 1
152 7
7.9
19 3
38 1
3.6
5 0
29.6
9.8
30 0
39 9
2 8
5 6
31.5
10.7
31 7
49 4
3 2
7 4
38 9
11
23
48
3
5
39
3
4
0
2
3
5
17.8
39 8
59 6
4 1
8 7
46 8
14.2
63 1
70 5
4 9
10 4
55.3
12.3
72 8
85 1
8.6
9 3
67.2
16.6
44 0
92 1
7.8
7.2
77.1
82.4
95 9
91 8
98 2
147 4
169 4
187.4
180.1
50.5
61.4
47.7
63.3
83.1
105.8
124.3
111.3
52.1
48.3
5 4
66 6
93 7
101.9
88.8
78.8
12.8
39.3
22 6
16 7
14.5
7.7
33 9 -2 3
21 0 — 10 3
12 9
8 0
10.5
56 1
39 2
16 9
12.7
81 0
40 6
40 4
16.7
85.2
39 3
45 9
12.6
76.3
48 1
28 2
6.8
71.9
50,2
21 8
o
Financed directly or indirectly by:
Private domestic nonfinancial sectors
Deposits
.
Demand deposits and currency..
Time and savings accounts
At commercial banks
At savings institutions
Credit market instruments, net
U.S. Government securities
Private credit market instruments
Corporate equities..
Less security debt
-1.5
13.0
42.3
-3.4
-10.6
3.8
35.5
32.6
-1 4
8 1
17 0
—9 0 — 14 0
1.6
18 8
18.1
5 7
-4.3
1.5
12 3
-6.5
8
27 5
-3.8
-1 6
6 5
-1.7
_ 9
10 7
-5.3
2 1
12.1
-5.4
4.5
20.5
-8.2
-4.4
13.7
-1.0
-1.8
4.9
2 3
2.7
5.1
2 6
2.5
10.6
9 3
1.3
2.4
-8 5
10 9
23.9
-3 2
27.2
15.8
5.2
10.6
10.1
6.5
3.6
25.7
13.6
12.1
1.2
4.6
-1.1
4.9
.4
2.9
2.8
2.8
3.2
3.2
-.3
2.6
-1.7
3.0
-4.6
7.4
18.2
3.0
18.8
6.9
19.7
10.6
21.8
5.1
24.8
9.1
27.1
18.4
29.5
22.1
36.1
4.2
Other sources:
Foreign funds
At banks
Direct
Change in U.S. Government cash
balance .
U.S. Government loans
_.
Private insurance and pension reserves...
Other.
See footnotes at end of table.
233
TABLE B-53.—Total funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors, 1967—75—Continued
[Billions of dollars]
1975 unadjusted
quarterly flows
1975 seasonally
adjusted annual rates
Item
Total funds raised
.
U S. Government
Public debt securities
Agency issues and mortgages
Foreign
-
.. .-
-
Corporate equities
Debt instruments
.
Private domestic nonfinancial sectors
Corporate equities
Debt instruments
.
III
1
II
32.6
50.1
52.6
167.4
203.3
19.2
16.6
23.7
72.4
95.8
91.1
19.7
16.7
23.8
96.2
91.2
-.5
-.1
.0
74.4
-2.0
1.8
3.0
3.3
.1
1.8
.0
3.0
.0
3.3
1.9
9.5
... . .
21.6
3.6
9.4
8.5
5.8
1.1
.4
1.2
State and local government obligations
Corporate bonds
Mortgages
Home
_
....
Multi-family
Commercial
Farm
.
Other debt instruments
Consumer credit
Bank loans n e e .
Open-market paper
Other
II
11.5
..
Debt capital instruments
1
-12.1
-5.9
-9.4
1.7
1.6
_ _
By borrowing sector* Total
State and local governments
Households
Nonfinancial business
Farm
Nonfarm noncorporate
Corporate
11.5
.
3.3
3.3
4.9
1.8
-
_
_
-1.3
4.4
Total funds advanced to nonfinancial sectors
30.5
3.2
25.5
2.0
III
211.2
-.4
-.1
7.7
11.4
14.5
.2
7.4
11." 3
14.4
96.0
105.6
97.5
87.4
7.7
.0
8.1
27.3
23.5
79.6
12.9
83.1
27.7
24.4
98.7
104.4
88.8
14.0
40.1
44.5
30.5
20.1
30.5
53.8
39.5
14.5
21.2
53.2
37.4
5.0
8.3
14.5
10.5
3.8
5.3
15.3
11.1
1.1
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.0
-.5
-.9
1.8
-.6
4.0
-2.6
.9
30.5
4.2
13.3
13.0
2.2
.5
10.3
-5.4
.2
.3
25.5
3.4
12.2
10.0
1.6
1.8
6.6
5.9
3.4
4.6
3.6
6.1
4.6
-19.1 -21.3
-3.3
-21.7
3.5
2.4
2.1
-18.9
-6.3
2.0
6.1
5.6
4.0
8.7
11.8
-10.8
s'.o
87.4
96.0
105.6
12.6
40.5
34.2
17.0
44.8
34.2
12.7
49.3
43.6
6.6
5.2
-.2
27*. 2
29.3
7.9
5.8
29.8
32.6
50.1
52.6
167.4
203.3
211.2
14.6
117.0
Financed directly or indirectly by:
Private domestic nonfinancial sectors
Deposits
...
Demand deposits and currency
Time and savings accounts
At commercial banks
At savings institutions
40.2
25.5
103.8
157.0
9.7
39.4
10.5
83.4
144.0
66.2
-16.8
17.7
21.6
-5.9
16.4
-6.4
89.8
23.5
66.3
49.6
94.4
22.7
71.7
-1.0
67.1
15.7
51.5
20.4
13.0
50.8
26.5
8.9
17.6
Credit market instruments, net
4.9
U S Government securities
Private credit market instruments
Corporate equities
Less security debt
3.2
18.4
5.2
11.2
.8
15.0
11.5
7.9
1.1
.0
-.2
2.6
.0
1.7
2.5
.9
-4.0
2.8
-15.2
37.8
-2.1
.1
-.2
9.1
9.9
.6
6.7
35.3
12.6
1.9
-1.0
Other sources:
Foreign funds
At banks
Direct
Change in U.S. Government cash balance
U.S. Government loans
Private insurance and pension reserves
Other
-3.3
i_
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
234
5.8
~L4
-.1
4.5
8.9
2.1
1.3
1.1
9.9
-3.3
2.5
1.4
1.1
1.7
3.4
9.9
9.5
10.6
-11.4
22.0
7.1
18.8
35.0
-8.0
3.7
-3.3
7.0
-1.7
4.3
40.4
-.6
5.4
7.0
-1.6
12.9
13.5
39.2
23.2
TABLE B-54.—Private liquid asset holdings, nonfnancial investors, 1959-75
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Currency and deposits
Time deposits
Year
and
month
Total
liquid
assets
Total
Demand
Curderency * posits
*
NonCombank
merthrift
cial 1 institubanks tions 2
U.S. Government
securities
Negotiable
certifiShortcates
term
of deSav- marketposit*
ings
able
bonds 3 securities*
Openmarket
paper •
1959: Dec
375.4
290.6
28.9
104.1
64.7
92.9
46.1
37.7
1.0
1960: Dec
1961 : Dec
1962: Dec
1963: Dec
1964: Dec
388. 1
412.5
444.5
482.5
518.4
305.7
326.3
352.3
382.3
415.1
29.0
29.6
30.6
32.5
34.3
104.6
106.3
106.5
109.8
114.6
69.9
77.0
88.8
98.6
108.9
102.2
113.5
126.4
141.5
157.3
45.7
46.5
46.9
48.0
48.9
34.0
34.0
36.1
38.5
35.7
2.7
5.3
9.0
11.6
2.8
3.1
3.9
4.7
7.0
1965: Dec
1966: Dec.
1967: Dec
1968: Dec
1969: Dec
562.9
593.5
643.2
704.1
737.1
451.5
474.3
520.9
564.5
583.0
36.3
38.3
40.4
43.4
46.1
119.6
121.7
130.0
140.1
144.7
125.2
137.0
156.3
174.3
177.3
170.4
177.3
194.2
206.7
215.0
49.5
50.1
51.0
51.4
51.1
38.4
43.8
39.5
46.8
64.9
15.0
14.5
19.2
22.5
9.1
8.4
10.7
12.7
18.8
28.9
786.7 634.4
868.7
721.1
980.2 816.0
1,093.5 885.3
1,184.7 941.2
1,293.6 1,053.1
49.1
52.6
56.9
61.6
67.9
73.7
153.2
161.7
175.2
181.5
183.1
190.1
199.2
233.6
264.7
294.8
321.9
363.3
232.9
273.2
319.1
347.4
368.3
426.0
51.3
53.7
57.0
59.9
62.8
66.9
53.2
39.6
39.8
52.1
60.1
61.7
23.1
30.3
39.9
58.1
79.9
72.8
24.7
24.0
27.6
38.3
40.6
39.0
1970: Dec
1971: Dec
1972: Dec
1973: Dec
1974' Dec
1975- Dec »
1974: Jan
Feb.
Mar
Apr
May
June
,102.3
,112.7
,121.4
,134.4
, 142. 5
,152.7
890.4
897.7
904.5
909.9
912.0
918.5
62.0
62.7
63.3
63.9
64.3
64.6
180.2
181.7
182.5
183.1
182.9
184.5
298.5
301.7
304.2
306.6
307.8
310.8
349.7
351.6
354.5
356.3
357.0
358.6
60.0
60.3
60.5
60.8
61.0
61.2
52.1
52.9
54.4
55.6
56.6
57.1
60.8
62.4
62.3
68.1
72.4
75.1
39.0
39.4
39.7
40.1
40.4
40.8
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
, 159. 4
, 163. 6
, 167. 5
, 175. 3
,179.9
,184.7
921.7
924.4
926.4
931.7
938.6
941.2
64.8
65.5
65.9
66.5
67.4
67.9
184.6
184.0
183.5
183.7
184.6
183.1
312.4
314.3
315.4
318.5
320.6
321.9
359.9
360.6
361.7
363.1
366.0
368.3
61.5
61.7
62.0
62.3
62.6
62.8
58.3
59.2
59.7
60.9
60.8
60.1
76.4
75.8
76.2
77.2
76.0
79.9
41.5
42.6
43.3
43.2
41.8
40.6
,191.8 944.8
,199.4 952.8
,208.0 963.9
,217.3 973.3
, 226. 6 985.4
,243.6 1,002.5
68.2
68.7
69.4
69.5
70.2
71.1
rso.o
180.6
182.2
183.1
184.6
188.0
325.1
328.3
331.4
334.0
338.2
344.3
371.5
375.3
380.9
386.8
392.4
399.1
63.2
63.5
63.8
64.1
64.4
64.7
61.0
60.2
59.4
59.7
59.5
60.6
82.5
82.3
80.0
78.8
75.7
74.0
40.3
40.6
41.1
41.4
41.7
41.8
,253.7
,257.6
,265.2
,273.2
,285.0
,293.6
71.4
71.9
72.0
72.5
73.4
73.7
188.3
188.7
189.0
188.2
190.7
190.1
348.3
350.8
352.9
356.2
360.4
363.3
405.2
410.2
414.6
418.7
422.8
426.0
65.1
65.5
65.8
66.2
66.6
66.9
61.7
61.1
61.5
61.1
61.1
61.7
72.0
68.4
69.4
71.0
70.9
72.8
41.7
41.0
40.0
39.5
39.1
39.0
1975- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr .
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec v
,013.2
,021.6
, 028. 5
,035.5
,047.2
,053.1
i Money stock components (see Table B-51) after deducting foreigni liholdings and holdings by domesticfinancialinstitutions. The three columns add to M2 held by domestic nonfmancial sectors
:ors.
2 As published in money stock statistics.
3 Series E and H savings bonds held by individuals.
* Short-term marketable U.S. Government securities excluding official, foreign, and financial institution holdings,
s Certificates over $100,000 at weekly reporting banks, except foreign holdings.
«Open-market paper held outside banks and other financial institutions.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
235
TABLE B-55.—Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 1929-75
[Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars]
Reserve Bank credit outstanding
Year and month
1929: Dec
1933- Dec
1939: Dec . .
1940: Dec
1941: Dec
1942: Dec
1943- Dec
1944: Dec
1945- Dec
1946: Dec
1947: Dec . . . .
1948- Dec
1949: Dec
1950: Dec
1951- Dec
1952: Dec
1953: Dec
1954: Dec
1955: Dec
1956- Dec
1957: Dec
1958: Dec
1959- Dec
1960: Dec
1961: Dec
1962- Dec
1963: Dec
1964: Dec
1965: Dec
1966: Dec
1967- Dec
1968: Dec ....
1969- Dec
1970- Dec
1971: Dec .
1972: Dec
1973: Dec
1974: Dec
1975: Deep
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar _
Apr
May
June
July
Aug _ ...
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1975- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July..
Aug _
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec?
Total
1,643
2,669
2,612
2,305
2,404
6,035
11,914
19,612
24, 744
24, 746
22, 858
23, 978
19,012
21,606
25,446
27, 299
27, 107
26,317
26, 853
27, 156
26, 186
28,412
29, 435
29, 060
31,217
33, 215
36,610
39, 873
43, 853
46, 864
51,268
56,610
64, 100
66, 708
74, 255
76, 851
85,642
93, 967
99, 630
86, 568
85, 493
84, 943
86, 907
89, 405
89, 254
91,554
91, 367
91,617
90, 971
91, 302
93,967
93, 002
91, 168
90, 819
93, 214
97, 845
95, 119
94, 144
92, 395
95, 277
96, 931
97, 817
99,630
U.S.
Government securities
446
2,432
2,510
2,188
2,219
5,549
11,166
18,693
23, 708
23, 767
21,905
23, 002
18, 287
20, 345
23, 409
24, 400
25, 639
24, 917
24, 602
24, 765
23, 982
26,312
27, 036
27, 248
29, 098
30, 546
33, 729
37, 126
40, 885
43, 760
48,891
52, 529
57, 500
61,688
69, 158
71,094
79,701
86, 679
92, 108
80, 793
80, 801
80, 686
81, 567
83, 434
82, 812
84, 313
84, 493
84, 384
83, 735
84, 052
86,679
86,039
84, 744
84, 847
87, 080
91,918
88, 912
88, 166
86, 829
89, 191
90, 476
90, 934
92,108
Member bank
borrowings
Total
Seasonal
801
95
3
3
5
4
90
265
334
157
224
134
118
142
657
1,593
441
246
839
688
710
557
906
87
149
304
327
243
454
557
238
765
1,086
321
107
1,049
1,298
703
129
1,044
1,186
1,352
1,714
2,580
3,000
3,308
3,351
3,287
1,793
1,285
703
390
147
106
110
60
271
261
211
396
191
61
129
41
32
14
18
17
32
50
102
130
149
165
139
117
67
32
13
10
7
7
9
11
17
38
61
65
28
14
Member bank reserves
All
other,
mainly
float
396
142
99
114
180
482
658
654
702
822
729
842
607
1,119
1,380
1,306
1,027
1,154
1,412
1,703
1,494
1,543
1,493
1,725
1,970
2,368
2,554
2,504
2,514
2,547
2,139
3,316
5,514
4,699
4,990
4,708
4,643
6,585
7,393
4,731
3,506
2,905
3,626
3,391
3,442
3,933
3,523
3,946
5,443
5,965
6,585
6,573
6,277
5,866
6,024
5,867
5,936
b,717
5,355
5,690
6,264
6,822
7,393
Total
2,395
2,588
11,473
14, 049
12,812
13, 152
12, 749
14, 168
16, 027
16,517
17,261
19, 990
16, 291
17,391
20, 310
21, 180
19,920
19,279
19, 240
19, 535
19,420
18, 899
2 18, 932
19, 283
20,118
20, 040
20, 746
21, 609
22, 719
23, 830
25, 260
27, 221
28, 031
29, 265
31,329
331,353
335,068
3 36, 941
434,968
36, 655
35, 242
34, 966
35, 929
36, 519
36, 390
37, 338
37,029
37, 076
36, 796
36, 8i7
36, 941
37, 492
35, 565
34, 779
35, 134
34, 492
34, 976
34, 655
34, 482
34, 646
34, 567
34, 571
* 34, 968
Required
2,347
U.822
6,462
7,403
9,422
10,776
11,701
12, 884
14,536
15,617
16, 275
19, 193
15,488
16, 364
19, 484
20, 457
19,227
18, 576
18,646
18, 883
18,843
18, 383
18,450
18, 527
19, 550
19, 468
20,210
21,198
22, 267
23, 438
24,915
26, 766
27, 774
28, 993
31,164
31,134
34,806
36, 602
34, 728
36, 419
35, 053
34, 790
35,771
36, 325
36, 259
37, 161
36, 851
36, 885
36, 705
36, 579
36,602
37, 556
35, 333
34, 513
35, 014
34, 493
34, 428
34, 687
34, 265
34, 447
34,411
34, 281
34, 728
Excess
48
1766
5,011
6,646
3,390
2,376
1,048
1,284
1,491
900
986
797
803
027
826
723
693
703
594
652
577
516
482
756
568
572
536
411
452
392
345
455
257
272
165
3219
3262
3339
<240
236
189
176
158
194
131
177
178
191
91
258
339
-64
232
266
120
548
-32
217
199
156
290
4240
i Data are for licensed banks only.
3
Beginning December 1959, total reserves held include vault cash allowed.
s Beginning November 1972, includes $450 million of reserve deficiencies on which Federal Reserve Banks were allowed
to waive penalties for a transition period in connection with bank adaptation to Regulation J as amended effective November 9,1972. Beginning 1973, allowable deficiencies included are (beginning with first statement week pf quarter): first
quarter, $279 million; second quarter, $172 million; third quarter, $112 million; fourth quarter, $84 million. Beginning
1974 allowable deficiencies included are: first quarter, $67 million and second quarter, $58 million. Transition period
ended after second quarter 1974.
4 Includes $1 million of reserve deficiencies on which penalties were waived in accordance with Regulation D change
effective November 19,1975.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
236
TABLE B-56.—Aggregate reserves and member bank deposits, 1959-75
[Averages of daily figures; * billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Deposits subject to reserve
requirements *
Member bank reserves 2
Year and
month
Demand
Total
Nonborrowed
Required
Available 3
Total
Time
and
savings
Private
U.S.
Government
Total
member
bank
deposits
plus
nondeposit
items «
1959: Dec
18.58
17.64
18.08
16.62
158.2
54.3
99.0
4.8
158.2
1960:
1961:
1962:
1963:
1964:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
18.90
19.73
19.66
20.29
21.20
18.82
19.59
19.40
19.96
20.93
18.15
19.14
19.09
19.80
20.79
17.01
17.71
17.58
18.24
19.09
162.5
175.5
189.0
203.2
218.7
58.8
67.7
79.9
92.1
103.7
99.1
102.9
103.3
105.9
109.1
4.6
4.9
5.7
5.2
5.9
162.5
175.5
189.0
203.4
220.1
1965:
1966:
1967:
1968:
1969:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec ... .
22.26
23.35
24.78
27.15
27.99
21.81
22.81
24.56
26.40
26.87
21.83
23.01
24.41
26.72
27.70
20.20
21.40
22.49
24.86
25.39
238.5
246.7
275.5
299.6
287.7
120.5
128.6
148.8
164.3
150.5
112. 8
113.9
121.2
130.3
131.9
5.1
4.3
5.5
5.0
5.3
240.0
250.9
279.9
306.6
307.0
1970: Dec .
1971: Dec
1972: Dec
1973: Dec
1974: Dec
29.20
31.32
31.46
35.17
36.91
28.87
31.20
30.41
33.87
36.18
28.96
31.14
31.17
34.86
36.65
27.14
29.04
29.09
32.94
34.64
321.3
360.3
402.0
442.2
485.9
178.9
210.7
242.0
280.0
323.4
136.0
143.8
154.5
158.2
160.7
6.4
5.8
5.6
3.9
1.9
333.4
365.2
406.4
448.7
494.3
1975: Dec *
35.04
34.90
34.75
32.69
506.7
339.0
164.6
3.1
515.1
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June..
35.82
35.12
34.98
35.88
36.50
36.74
34.77
33.92
33.66
34.15
33.91
33.73
35.66
34.93
34.84
35.70
36.34
36.54
32.83
32.90
33.13
33.66
34.24
34.71
446.8
447.5
450.4
461.2
467.1
472.9
284.1
287.4
288.6
296.6
302.3
307.0
157.5
157.9
158.7
160.0
159.1
160.6
5.1
2.2
3.2
4.6
5.6
5.3
453.3
454.4
457.9
469.2
475.8
481.2
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
37.40
37.27
37.26
36.85
36.88
36.91
34.10
33.93
33.98
35.04
35.62
36.18
37.24
37.08
37.08
36.73
36.67
36.65
34.96
35.27
35.28
34.88
34.87
34.64
475.7
478.5
480.6
480.5
483.6
485.9
310.7
312.4
314.4
317.2
318.4
323.4
160.7
159.9
159.9
159.5
160.6
160.7
4.2
6.2
6.3
3.7
4.6
1.9
484.9
487.5
489.2
488.3
491.2
494.3
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
36.91
35.46
34.85
35.08
34.63
34.87
36.51
35.32
34.74
34.97
34.56
34.65
36.76
35.27
34.65
34.93
34.47
34.67
34.41
33.61
33.03
33.11
32.80
33.00
488.2
489.2
491.6
493.5
493.7
500.5
328.5
328.9
329.2
329.7
329.0
330.8
159.0
159.7
161.7
161.7
162.6
165.9
.7
.6
.7
2.1
2.1
3.8
495.8
495.7
498.1
500.2
501.2
507.5
34.99
34.57
34.68
34.59
34.61
35.04
34.69
34.36
34.28
34.40
34.55
34.90
34.80
34.37
34.49
34.39
34.32
34.75
32.94
32.77
32.79
32.68
32.51
32.69
498.5
496.0
498.8
500.0
505.1
506.7
330.8
327.9
330.1
333.5
335.7
333.0
165.2
165.3
165.6
163.7
165.9
164.6
2.5
2.9
3.1
2.9
3.6
3.1
505.3
503.0
505.8
507.9
513.3
515.1
.
July
Aug
..
Seot
Oct
Nov .
Dec v .
1
Except as noted in footnote 5.
* Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the
effect of changes in Regulations D and M.
3 Reserves available to support private nonbank deposits are defined as (1) required reserves for (a) private demand
deposits, (b) total time and savings deposits, and (c) nondeposit sources subject to reserve requirements and (2) excess
reserves. This series excludes required reserves for net interbank and U.S. Government demand deposits.
« Deposits subject to reserve requirements include total time and sayings deposits and net demand deposits as defined
by Regulation D. Private demand deposits include all demand deposits except those due to the U.S. Government, less
cash items in process of collection and demand balances due from domestic commercial banks.
B Total member bank deposits subject to reserve requirements, plus Eurodollar borrowings, loans sold to bank-related
institutions (data relate to Wednesday figures), and certain other nondeposit items. This series for deposits is referred to
as "the adjusted bank credit proxy."
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
237
597-578 O - 76 - 16
TABLE B-57.—Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-75
[Percent per annum]
U.S. Government securities
Year or month 3-month
3-5
Treasyear 2 Taxable
bonds s
ury
issues
bills i
1929
Corporate
bonds
(Moody's)
Aaa
Baa
Average
Highrate on Prime
grade
shortcomterm
municmeripal
bank
cial
loans
bonds
(Stand- to busi- paper,
nessard &
Poor's) selected months
cities
Discount
rate,
Federal
Reserve
Bank
of New
York*
Federal
funds
rates
FHA
new
home
mortgage
yields «
4.73
5.90
4.27
5.85
5.16
1933
0.515
2.66
4.49
7.76
4.71
1.73
2.56
1939
.023
.59
3.01
4.96
2.76
2.1
.59
1.00
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
.014
.103
.326
.373
.375
.50
.73
.46
.34
.33
2.46
2.47
2.48
2.84
2.77
2.83
2.73
2.72
4.75
4.33
4.28
3.91
3.61
2.50
2.10
2.36
2.06
1.86
2.1
2.0
2.2
2.6
2.4
.56
.53
.66
.69
.73
1.00
1.00
71.00
M.OO
M.OO
.375
.375
.594
1.040
1.102
.18
.16
.32
.62
.43
2.37
2.19
2.25
2.44
2.31
2.62
2.53
2.61
2.82
2.66
3.29
3.05
3.24
3.47
3.42
1.67
1.64
2.01
2.40
2.21
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.68
.75
.81
1.03
1.44
1.49
7 1.00
71.00
1.00
1.34
1.50
4.34
1.218
1.552
1.766
1.931
.953
1.50
1.93
2.13
2.56
1.82
2.32
2.57
2.68
2.94
2.55
2.62
2.86
2.%
3.20
2.90
3.24
3.41
3.52
3.74
3.51
1.98
2.00
2.19
2.72
2.37
2.69
3.11
3.49
3.69
3.61
1.45
2.16
2.33
2.52
1.58
1.59
1.75
1.75
1.99
1.60
4.17
4.21
4.29
4.61
4.62
1.753
2.658
3.267
1.839
3.405
2.50
3.12
3.62
2.90
4.33
2.84
3.08
3.47
3.43
4.07
3.06
3.36
3.89
3.79
4.38
3.53
3.88
4.71
4.73
5.05
2.53
2.93
3.60
3.56
3.95
3.70
4.20
4.62
4.34
85.00
2.18
3.31
3.81
2.46
3.97
1.89
2.77
3.12
2.15
3.36
1.78
2.73
3.11
1.57
3.30
4.64
4.79
5.42
5.49
5.71
1960
1961 .
1962...
1963
1964
2.928
2.378
2.778
3.157
3.549
3.99
3.60
3.57
3.72
4.06
4.01
3.90
3.95
4.00
4.15
4.41
4.35
4.33
4.26
4.40
5.19
5.08
5.02
4.86
4.83
3.73
3.46
3.18
3.23
3.22
5.16
4.97
5.00
5.01
4.99
3.85
2.97
3.26
3.55
3.97
3.53
3.00
3.00
3.23
3.55
3.22
1.96
2.68
3.18
3.50
6.18
5.80
5.61
5.47
5.45
1965
1966...
1967
1968...
1969 .
3.954
4.881
4.321
5.339
6.677
4.22
5.16
5.07
5.59
6.85
4.21
4.66
4.85
5.25
6.10
4.49
5.13
5.51
6.18
7.03
4.87
5.67
6.23
6.94
7.81
3.27
3.82
3.98
4.51
5.81
5.06
6.00
86.00
6.68
8.21
4.38
5.55
5.10
5.90
7.83
4.04
4.50
4.19
5.17
5.87
4.07
5.11
4.22
5.66
8.21
5.46
6.29
6.55
7.13
8.19
1970.
1971
1972
1973
1974
6.458
4.348
4.071
7.041
7.886
7.37
5.77
5.85
6.92
7.81
6.59
5.74
5.63
6.30
6.99
8.04
7.39
7.21
7.44
8.57
9.11
8.56
8.16
8.24
9.50
6.51
5.70
5.27
5.18
6.09
8.48
86.32
5.82
8.30
11.28
7.72
5.11
4.69
8.15
9.87
5.95
4.88
4.50
6.44
7.83
7.17
4.67
4.44
8.74
10.51
9.05
7.78
7.53
8.08
9.47
1975
5.838
7.55
6.98
8.83 10.39
8.65
6.33
6.25
5.82
9.22
.
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.
See next page for continuation of table and for footnotes.
238
6.89
TABLE B-57.—Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-75— Continued
[Percent per annum]
U.S. Government securities
Year or month 3-month
3-5
Treasyear Taxable
ury
issues
2 bonds 3
bills i
Corporate
bonds
(Moody's)
Average
High- rate on
Disgrade short- Prime
count
communic- term
rate,
meripal
Federal Federal
bank
cial
bonds
loans pa^r,
Reserve funds
rate*
(Stand- to busiBank
ard & ness- months of New
Poor's) selected
York*
cities
Aaa
Baa
7.15
7.22
7.29
7.26
7.29
7.37
7.90
7.97
8.03
8.09
8.06
8.13
5.05
5.12
5.30
5.16
5.12
5.15
5.39
5.47
5.11
5.05
5.17
5.12
5.307
5.558
6.054
6.289
6.348
7.188
6.29
6.61
6.85
6.74
6.78
6.76
8.015
8.672
8.478
7.155
7.866
7.364
7.49
7.75
7.16
6.81
6.96
6.80
6.53
6.81
6.42
6.26
6.31
6.35
7.45
7.68
7.63
7.60
7.67
7.68
8.24
8.53
8.63
8.41
8.42
8.48
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar .
Apr.
May
June. .
7.755
7.060
7.986
8.229
8.430
8.145
6.94
6.77
7.33
7.99
8.24
8.14
6.56
6.54
6.81
7.04
7.07
7.03
7.83
7.85
8.01
8.25
8.37
8.47
8.58
8.59
8.65
8.88
9.10
9.34
5.20
5.19
5.36
5.67
5.96
6.08
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
7.752
8.744
8.363
7.244
7.585
7.179
8.39
8.64
8.38
7.98
7.65
7.22
7.18
7.33
7.30
7.22
6.93
6.78
8.72
9.00
9.24
9.27
8.90
8.89
9.55
9.77
10.12
10. 41
10.50
10.55
6.54
6.58
6.65
6.46
6.47
6.93
6.493
5.583
5.544
5.694
5.315
5.193
7.29
6.85
7.00
7.76
7.49
7.26
6.68
6.61
6.73
7.03
6.99
6.86
8.83
8.62
8.67
8.95
8.90
8.77
10.62
10.43
10.29
10.34
10.46
10.40
6.66
6.30
6.61
6.83
6.81
6.76
6.164
6.463
6.383
6.081
5.468
5.504
7.72
8.12
8.22
7.80
7.51
7.50
6.89
7.06
7.29
7.29
7.21
7.17
8.84
8.95
8.95
8.86
8.78
8.79
10.33
10.35
10.38
10.37
10.33
10.35
6.94
7.02
7.23
7.22
7.21
7.06
1973: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr . .
May
June
July
Aug. .
Sept
Oct
Nov.. .
Dec
1975: Jan
Feb..
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
_
5.94
6.14
6.20
6.11
6.22
6.32
6.52
7.35
9.24
10.08
9.91
11.15
12.40
11.64
9.94
"Tie"
8.22
8.29
5.78
6.22
6.85
7.14
7.27
7.99
4^-5
5 -5«
9.18
10.21
10.23
8.92
8.94
9.08
9*3*
lYr-lY*
FHA
new
home
mortgage
yields •
5.94
6.58
7.09
7.12
7.84
8.49
7.56
7.55
7.56
7.63
7.73
7.79
7.89
8.19
7^-7^
7^-7^
7H-7K
10.40
10.50
10.78
10.01
10.03
9.95
9.18
8.97
8.86
8.66
7.83
8.42
9.79
10.62
10.96
8 -8
8 -8
9.65
8.97
9.35
10.51
11.31
11.93
8.54
8.66
9.17
9.46
11.72
11.65
11.23
9.36
8.81
8.98
8
8
8
8
8
8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-8
-7fc
12.92
12.01
11.34
10.06
9.45
8.53
9.46
9.85
10.30
10.38
10.13
6^-6M
6K-6M
6^-6
6 -6
7.13
6.24
5.54
5.49
5.22
5.55
9.51
8.99
8.84
8.69
6
6
6
6
6
6
6.10
6.14
6.24
5.82
5.22
5.20
9.06
9.13
9.32
9.74
9.53
9.41
7.30
6.33
6.06
6.15
5.82
5.79
6.44
6.70
6.86
6.48
5.91
5.97
6 ^K
i&a
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
-6
8.78
9.16
i Rate on new issues within period. First issued in December 1929.
* Selected note and bond issues.
» First issued in 1941. Series includes bonds which are neither due nor callable before a given number of years as
follows: April 1953 to date, 10 years; April 1952-March 1953,12 years; November 1941-March 1952,15 years.
* Average effective rate for the year; opening and closing rate for the month.
s Based on seven-day averages of daily effective rates for weeks ending Wednesday. Since July 19,1975, the daily effective
rate is an average of the rates on a given day weighted by the volume of transactions at these rates. Prior to that date,
the daily effective rate was the rate considered most representative of the day's transactions, usually the one at which
most transactions occurred.
e Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate (9 percent beginning September 2,1975)
Through July 1961, computed on 25-year mortgages paid in 12 years and thereafter, 30-year mortgages paid in 15 years.
7 From October 30, 1942, to April 24, 1946, a preferential rate of 0.50 percent was in effect for advances secured by
Government securities maturing in 1 year or {ess.
« Series revised. Not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Sources: Department of Housing and Urban Development, Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
239
TABLE B-58.—Short- and intermediate-term consumer credit outstanding, 1929-75
(Millions of dollars]
Instalment credit
End of year or
month
Total
Automobile
paper
Other
consumer
goods
paper
Total
Noninstalment credit
Home
m p rovemen t
loans1
Personal
loans
Total
Charge
accounts
Other a
Addendum:
Policy
loans by
life insurance
companies'
1929
7,116
3,524
1,384
1,544
27
569
3,592
1,996
1,596
2,379
1933
3,885
1,723
493
799
15
416
2,162
1,286
876
3,769
1939
7,222
4,503
1,497
1,620
298
1,088
2,719
1,414
1,305
3,248
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
8,338
9,172
5,983
4,901
5,111
5,665
8,384
11, 598
14, 447
17,364
5,514
6,085
3,166
2,136
2,176
2,462
4,172
6,695
8,996
11,590
2,071
2,458
742
355
397
455
981
1,924
3,018
4,555
1,827
1,929
1,195
819
791
816
1,290
2,143
2,901
3,706
371
376
255
130
119
182
405
718
853
898
1,245
1,322
974
832
869
1,009
1,496
1,910
2,224
2,431
2,824
3,087
2,817
2,765
2,935
3,203
4,212
4,903
5,451
5,774
1,471
1,645
1,444
1,440
1,517
1,612
2,076
2,381
2,722
2, 854
1,353
1,442
1,373
1,325
1,418
1,591
2,136
2,522
2,729
2,920
3,091
2,919
2,683
2,373
2 134
1,962
1,894
1,937
2,057
2,240
1950
1951
1952
1953 .
1954
1955
1956 .
1957
1958
1959
21,471
22,712
27, 520
31, 393
32,464
38, 830
42, 334
44,971
45, 129
51, 544
14,703
15, 294
19,403
23,005
23,568
28,906
31,720
33, 868
33,642
39, 247
6,074
5,972
7,733
9,835
9,809
13,460
14, 420
15, 340
14, 152
16,420
4,799
4,880
6,174
6,779
6,751
7,641
8,606
8,844
9,028
10,631
1,016
,085
,385
,610
,616
,693
1,905
2,101
2,346
2,809
2,814
3,357
4,111
4,781
5,392
6,112
6,789
7,582
8,116
9,386
6,768
7,418
8,117
8,388
8,896
9,924
10,614
11,103
11,487
12, 297
3,367
3,700
4,130
4,274
4,485
4,795
4,995
5,146
5,060
5,104
3,401
3,718
3,987
4,114
4,411
5,129
5,619
5,957
6,427
7,193
2,413
2,590
2,713
2,914
3,127
3,290
3,519
3,869
4,188
4,618
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
56, 141
57,982
63, 821
71, 739
80, 268
89, 883
96,239
100, 783
110,770
121, 146
42,968
43, 891
48, 720
55, 486
62,692
70,893
76, 245
79,428
87, 745
97, 105
17,658
17, 135
19, 381
22, 254
24,934
28,437
30,010
29,796
32, 948
35, 527
11, 545
11, 862
12,627
14, 177
16,333
18,483
20, 732
22,389
24,626
28, 313
3,148
3,221
3,298
3,437
3,577
3,736
3,841
4,008
4,239
4,613
10,617
11,673
13,414
15,618
17, 848
20, 237
21,662
23, 235
25,932
28, 652
13, 173
14,091
15, 101
16, 253
17, 576
18,990
19,994
21,355
23, 025
24, 041
5,329
5,324
5,684
5,903
6,195
6,430
6,686
7,070
7,193
7,373
7,844
8,767
9,417
10, 350
11,381
12,560
13, 308
14, 285
15,832
16, 668
5,231
5,733
6,234
6,655
7,140
7,678
9,117
10, 059
11,306
13, 825
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975*
127,163
139, 107
157,939
180, 803
191,457
197, 110
102,064
111,662
127,448
148,273
158, 101
162, 010
35, 184
38, 802
44,293
51, 274
52,209
53,730
31,465
34,608
39, 766
47,325
52,045
52, 705
5,070
5,408
6,258
7,453
8,398
8,340
30,345
32, 843
37, 131
42, 220
45, 450
47, 235
25, 099
27, 445
30, 491
32, 530
33,356
35, 100
7,968
8,350
8,881
9,198
9,506
10, 375
17, 131
19, 095
21,610
23, 332
23, 850
24, 725
16,064
17, 065
18, 003
20, 199
22,862
179, 404
179, 244
179,335
181, 146
183,291
184,999
147, 309
147,091
146,902
148,261
150, 227
152, 096
50,796
50, 622
50,618
50,962
51, 477
52,098
46, 938
46, 767
46,396
46, 872
47, 526
48,054
7,407
7452
7,543
7,692
7,912
8,063
42, 167
42,251
42, 345
42, 734
43,312
43, 881
32,095
32, 153
32, 433
32,885
33,064
32,903
8,757
8,491
8,501
8,813
9,132
9,164
23,338
23, 662
23,932
24,072
23,932
23,739
20,353
20,483
20,643
20,819
21,056
21,305
186, 359
189,047
189,808
189,929
189,849
191,457
153,658
156, 123
156,925
157,077
156,982
158, 101
52, 567
53,256
53, 334
53,238
52,844
52,209
48,489
49,286
49,698
49,909
50, 328
52,045
8,220
8,384
8,440
8,492
8,481
8,398
44, 382
45, 197
45,454
45, 438
45, 329
45, 450
32,701
32,924
32,883
32,852
32,867
33, 356
9,154
9,270
9,255
9,337
9,266
9,506
23, 547
23,654
23,628
23,515
23,601
23,850
21, 563
21, 867
22, 175
22,473
22,676
22,862
188,683
187, 561
186, 396
186, 415
186, 830
187, 471
155,790
154,639
153,305
153, 131
153, 411
154, 283
51, 440
51, 373
50,954
50, 849
50, 978
51,453
51,073
50, 166
49, 326
49, 227
49, 224
49, 212
8,281
8,196
8,153
8,108
8,136
8,202
44, 995
44, 903
44, 873
44, 948
45, 072
45, 416
32,893
32,922
33, 091
33, 284
33, 419
33, 188
9,080
8,789
8,797
9,004
9,359
9,199
23, 813
24, 133
24, 294
24,280
24,060
23,989
23,058
23,224
23,391
23,459
23, 570
23,675
188, 282
189, 837
191, 059
191,901
192, 995
197,110
155, 419
156, 765
157,720
158, 391
159, 200
162, 010
52,088
52, 545
52,852
53,286
53,479
53, 730
49, 188
49, 610
49,856
49,982
50, 426
52, 705
8,272
8,329
8,372
8,374
8,361
8,340
45,871
46,280
46,641
46,750
46,935
47, 235
32,863
33,072
33, 339
33, 510
33,794
35, 100
9,134
9,143
9,300
9,479
9.571
10, 375
23,729
23,929
24,039
24,031
24, 223
24, 725
23,794
23, 919
24,048
24, 171
.
1974: Jan
Feb
.
..
Mar .
Apr
May ..
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
.
Nov
Dec
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec*
i Holdings of financial institutions only; holdings of retail outlets are included in other consumer goods paper.
3 Single-payment loans and service credit.
3 Data are annual statement asset values. These loans are not included in consumer credit series.
* Preliminary; by Council of Economic Advisers.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Institute of Life Insurance (except as noted).
240
TABLE B-59.—Instalment credit extended and repaid, 1946-75
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Automobile
paper
Total
Other consumer
goods paper
Home improvement loans
Extended
Personal
loans
Year or month
Extended
Repaid
Extended
Repaid
Extended
Repaid
1946 .
1947
1948
1949
8,495
12,713
15, 585
18, 108
6,785
10, 190
13, 284
15, 514
1,969
3,692
5,217
6,967
1,443
2,749
4,123
5,430
3,077
4,498
5,383
5,865
2,603
3,645
4,625
5,060
423
704
714
734
200
391
579
689
3,026
3,819
4,271
4,542
2,539
3,405
3,957
4,335
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
21, 558
23, 576
29, 514
31, 558
31,051
18,445
22,985
25,405
27,956
30, 488
8,530
8,956
11,764
12,981
11, 807
7,011
9,058
10, 003
10, 879
11,833
7,150
7,485
9,186
9,227
9,117
6,057
7,404
7,892
8,622
9,145
835
841
1,217
1,344
1,261
717
772
917
,119
,255
5,043
6,294
7,347
8,006
8,866
4,660
5,751
6,593
7,336
8,255
38, 972
39, 866
42, 019
40, 110
48,048
33,634
37, 056
39, 870
40, 339
42,603
16, 734
15, 515
16, 465
14, 226
17, 779
13, 082
14, 555
15, 545
15,415
15, 579
10,642 9,752
11,721 10, 758
11, 810 11,574
11,738 11, 557
13,981 12, 402
1,393
1,582
1,674
1,871
2,222
,316
,370
,477
1,626
1,765
10, 203
11,051
12,069
12, 275
14, 070
9,484
10, 373
11, 276
11,741
12, 857
49,793 46,073
49, 048 48, 124
56, 191 51, 360
63, 591 56, 825
70,670 63, 470
17,657
16,029
19,694
22, 126
24,046
16, 419
16, 552
17, 447
19, 254
21, 369
14, 525
14, 551
15, 701
17, 920
20, 821
13,613
14, 235
14, 935
16, 369
18,666
2,215
2,092
2,084
2,186
2,225
1,876
2,015
2,010
2,046
2,086
15, 396
16, 377
18, 710
21, 359
23, 578
14, 165
15, 319
16, 969
19, 156
21, 349
27, 208
27, 192
26, 320
31,083
32, 553
23,706
25,619
26, 534
27,931
29,974
22,857
26, 329
29, 504
33,507
38,332
20,707
24, 080
27,847
31,270
34,645
2,270
2,223
2,369
2,534
2,831
2,112 26,326
2,118 27,088
2,202 28,978
2,303 32,860
2,457 35,430
23,938
25,663
27, 405
30, 163
32,710
29,794 30, 137 43, 873 40,721
35,036 31, 418 48, 137 44, 994
40, 447 34,955 54, 845 49,687
46, 486 39, 506 65, 128 57, 569
43, 431 42,496 68,497 63, 775
2,963
3,239
4,094
4,828
4,854
2,506
2,900
3,242
3,632
3,908
35, 528
38, 274
43, 479
48,084
49,394
33,835
35, 775
39, 189
42,9%
46, 162
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
...
.
.
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
78,661
82, 832
87, 171
99,984
109, 146
70,463
77,480
83,988
91,667
99, 786
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
112,158
124, 686
142, 865
164, 526
166, 176
107, 199
115,087
127, 073
143, 703
156, 341
19751
166,570 162,662
Repaid
Extended
Repaid
46, 550
45,029
68, 120
67, 460
4,350
4,408
47,550
45, 765
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
13, 720
13,886
13,706
14, 027
14,465
14, 314
12, 748
12, 730
13, 059
12, 907
13, 224
13, 079
3,505
3,502
3,590
3,611
3,798
3,794
3,470
3,395
3,543
3,520
3,635
3,572
5, 600
5,866
5,584
5,706
5,836
5,794
5,043
5,175
5,358
5,241
5,307
5,319
375
418
429
450
471
433
356
327
311
318
321
333
4,240
4,100
4,103
4,260
4,360
4,293
3,879
3,833
3,847
3,828
3,961
3,855
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
14, 448
14, 400
13, 985
13, 512
12, 536
13, 057
13, 164
12, 916
13, 169
13, 175
12, 909
13,438
3,813
3,908
3,864
3,424
3,157
3,319
3,600
3,481
3,653
3,503
3,474
3,684
5,810
5,786
5,650
5,577
5,361
5,810
5,323
5,294
5,351
5,287
5,323
5,817
437
412
327
382
357
340
323
317
289
327
334
357
4,388
4,294
4,144
4,129
3,661
3,588
3,918
3,824
3,876
4,058
3,778
3,580
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
12, 848
13, 243
12, 734
13, 168
12, 993
13, 618
13, 275
13, 117
13, 217
13, 409
13, 359
13, 413
3,334
3,881
3,488
3,476
3,554
3,753
3,604
3,623
3,812
3,746
3,718
3,751
5,349
5,221
5,303
5,434
5,396
5,519
5,392
5,375
5,537
5,471
5,544
5,532
288
305
343
321
343
378
346
360
365
377
364
368
3,877
3,836
3,600
3,937
3,700
3,968
3,933
3,759
3,503
3,815
3,733
3,762
July
Aug
Sent
Oct
Nov
Dec*
14, 322
14, 426
14, 555
14, 832
14,877
15,200
13, 435
13, 790
13, 794
14, 002
14,074
14, 300
,124
,031
,235
,189
,218
4,300
3,740
3,819
3,849
3,799
3,814
3,875
5,674
5,928
5,723
6,020
6,177
6,300
5,619
5,639
5,720
5,771
5,998
6,025
395
363
388
393
409
400
357
367
369
398
371
375
4,129
4,104
4,209
4,230
4,073
4,200
3,719
3,965
3,856
4,032
3,890
4,025
i Preliminary; December by Council of Economic Advisers.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted).
241
TABLE B-60.—Mortgage debt outstanding by type of property and of financing, 1939-75
[Billions of dollars]
Nonfarm properties
Nonfarm properties by type of mortgage
Government underwritten
End of year
or quarter
All
properties
Farm
properties
Total
1- to 4family
houses
Multi- Commerfamily
cial
propproperties erties i
Conventional 2
1- to 4-family houses
Total
Total
FHA
insured
VA
guaranteed
Total
1- to 4family
houses
1939
35.5
6.6
28.9
16.3
5.6
7.0
1.8
1.8
1.8
27.1
14.5
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
36.5
37.6
36.7
35.3
34.7
6.5
6.4
6.0
5.4
4.9
30.0
31.2
30.8
29.9
29.7
17.4
18.4
18.2
17.8
17.9
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.6
6.9
7.0
6.7
6.3
6.2
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2
27.7
28.2
27.1
25.8
25.5
15.1
15.4
14.5
13.7
13,7
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
35.5
41.8
48.9
56.2
62.7
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.6
30.8
36.9
43.9
50.9
57.1
18.6
23.0
28.2
33.3
37.6
5.7
6.1
6.6
7.5
8.6
6.4
7.7
9.1
10.2
10.8
4.3
6.3
9.8
13.6
18.1
4.3
6.1
9.3
12.5
15.0
4.1
3.7
3.8
5.3
6.9
0.2
2.4
5.5
7.2
8.1
26.5
30.6
34.1
37.3
39.0
14.3
16.9
18.9
20.8
22.6
1950
1951
1952
1953.
1954
72.8
82.3
91.4
101.3
113.7
6.1
6.7
7.2
7.7
8.2
66.7
75.6
84.2
93.6
105.4
45.2
51.7
58.5
66.1
75.7
10.1
11.5
12.3
12.9
13.5
11.5
12.5
13.4
14.5
16.3
22.1
26.6
29.3
32.1
36.2
18.9
22.9
25.4
28.1
32.1
8.6
9.7
10.8
12.0
12.8
10.3
13.2
14.6
16.1
19.3
44.6
49.0
54.9
61.5
69.2
26.3
28.8
33.1
38.0
43.6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
129.9
144.5
156.5
171.8
190.8
9.0
9.8
10.4
11.1
12.1
120.9
134.6
146.1
160.7
178.7
88.2
99.0
107.6
117.7
130.9
14.3
14.9
15.3
16.8
18.7
18.3
20.7
23.2
26.1
29.2
42.9
47.8
51.6
55.1
59.3
38.9
43.9
47.2
50.1
53.8
14.3
15.5
16.5
19.7
23.8
24.6
28.4
30.7
30.4
30.0
78.0
86.8
94.6
105.5
119.4
49.3
55.1
60.4
67.6
77.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
206.8
226.3
248.6
274.3
300.1
12.8
13.9
15.2
16.8
18.9
194.0
212.4
233.4
257.4
281.2
141.3
153.1
166.5
182.2
197.6
20.3
23.0
25.8
29.0
33.6
32.4
36.4
41.1
46.2
50.0
62.3
65.6
69.4
73.4
77.2
56.4
59.1
62.2
65.9
69.2
26.7
29.5
32.3
35.0
38.3
29.7
29.6
29.9
30.9
30.9
131.7
146.8
164.1
184.0
204.0
84.8
93.9
104.3
116.3
128.3
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
325.8
347.4
370.2
397.5
425.3
21.2
23.3
25.5
27.5
29.5
304.6
324.1
344.8
370.0
395.9
212.9
223.6
236.1
251.2
266.5
37.2
40.3
43.9
47.3
52.3
54.5
60.1
64.8
71.4
77.1
81.2
84.1
88.2
93.4
100.2
73.1
76.1
79.9
84.4
90.2
42.0
44.8
47.4
50.6
54.5
31.1
31.3
32.5
33.8
35.7
223.4
240,0
256.6
276.6
295.7
139.8
147.6
156.1
166.8
176.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
451.7
499.8
564.8
635.0
688.5
31.2
32.9
35.4
39.3
44.3
420.5
466.9
529.4
595.6
644.2
280.3
307.2
345.3
384.6
411.6
58.0
67.3
76.7
85.4
91.7
82.3
92.3
107.3
125.6
141.0
109.2
120.7
131.1
135.0
140.3
97.3
105.2
113.0
116.2
121.3
59.9
65.7
68.2
66.2
65.1
37.3
39.5
44.7
50.0
56.2
311.3
346.2
398.3
460.6
504.0
183.0
202.0
232.3
268.4
290.3
1975 P
738.4
49.0
689.4
440.2
96.3
152. 9
149.6
128.9
67.0
61.9
539.8
311.3
1973:1.
II
III....
IV
579.3
600.0
619.8
635.0
36.4
37.7
38.6
39.3
542.9
562.3
581.2
595.6
353.5
365.5
377.0
384.6
78.4
81.0
83.6
85.4
111.0
115.8
120.6
125.6
132.5
133.6
133.8
135.0
113.7
114.7
115.1
116.2
67.9
67.5
66.9
66.2
45.8
47.2
48.2
50.0
410.4
428.7
447.4
460.6
239.8
250.8
261.9
268.4
1974: 1
II
III....
IV....
646.1
664.3
678.6
688.5
40.2
41.8
43.2
44.3
605.9
622.5
635.4
644.2
390.0
400.0
407.5
411.6
86.7
88.3
89.9
91.7
129.2
134.2
138.0
141.0
136.7
137.8
138.6
140.3
117.7
118.4
119.7
121.3
66.0
65.5
65.1
65.1
51.7
52.9
54.5
56.2
469.0
484.7
496.9
504.0
272.3
281.6
287.8
290.3
695.0
708.9
724.4
IV v.. . 738.4
45.5
46.9
48.0
49.0
649.5
662.0
676.4
689.4
414.8
424.3
435.0
440.2
92.0
92.3
93.4
96.3
142.7
145.4
148.0
152.9
142.0
142.9
145.0
149.6
123.3
123.7
125.8
128.9
65.5
65.7
65.9
67.0
57.7
58.0
59.9
61.9
507.4
519.1
531.4
539.8
291.5
300.6
309.2
311.3
1975:1
II
III....
i Includes negligible amount of farm loans held by savings and loan associations.
> Derived figures.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, estimated and compiled from data supplied by various
Government and private organizations.
242
TABLE B-61.—Mortgage debt outstanding by lender, 1939-75
[Billions of dollars]
Private financial institutions
End of year
or quarter
Total
Total
Savings
and
loan
associations
Mutual
savings
banks
Commercial
banks i
Other lenders
Life
Federal
insurance
and
comrelated 2
panies agencies
Individuals
and
others
35.5
18.6
3.8
4.8
4.3
5.7
5.0
11.9
36.5
37.6
36.7
35.3
34.7
19.5
20.7
20.7
20.2
20.2
4.1
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.8
.9
.8
.6
'.3
4.6
4.9
4.7
4.5
4.4
6.0
6.4
6.7
6.7
6.7
4.9
4.7
4.3
3.6
3.0
12.0
12.2
11.7
11.5
11.5
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
35.5
41.8
48.9
56.2
62.7
21.0
26.0
31.8
37.8
42.9
5.4
7.1
8.9
10.3
11.6
.2
.4
.9
5.8
6.7
4.8
7.2
9.4
10.9
11.6
6.6
7.2
8.7
10.8
12.9
2.4
2.0
1.8
1.9
2.4
12.1
13.8
15.3
16.5
17.4
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
72.8
82.3
91.4
101.3
113.7
51.7
59.5
66.9
75.1
85.7
13.7
15.6
18.4
22.0
26.1
8.3
9.9
11.4
12.9
15.0
13.7
14.7
15.9
16.8
18.6
16.1
19.3
21.3
23.3
26.0
2.7
3.4
4.0
4.4
4.6
18.4
19.4
20.5
21.8
23.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
129.9
144.5
156.5
171.8
190.8
99.3
111.2
119.7
131.5
145.5
31.4
35.7
40.0
45.6
53.1
17.5
19.7
21.2
23.3
25.0
21.0
22.7
23.3
25.5
28.1
29.4
33.0
35.2
37.1
39.2
5.2
6.0
7.5
7.8
10.0
25.4
27.3
29.3
32.5
35.4
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
206.8
226.3
248.6
274.3
300.1
157.6
172.6
192.5
217.1
241.0
60.1
68.8
78.8
90.9
101.3
26.9
29.1
32.3
36.2
40.6
28.8
30.4
34.5
39.4
44.0
41.8
44.2
46.9
50.5
55.2
11.2
11.8
12.2
11.2
11.4
38.0
41.9
44.0
45.9
47.7
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
325.8
347.4
370.2
397.5
425.3
264.6
280.8
298.8
319.9
339.1
110.3
114.4
121.8
130.8
140.2
44.6
47.3
50.5
53.5
56.1
49.7
54.4
59.0
65.7
70.7
60.0
64.6
67.5
70.0
72.0
12.4
15.8
18.4
21.7
26.8
48.7
50.9
53.0
55.8
59.4
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
451.7
499.8
564.8
635.0
688.6
355.9
394.2
450.0
505.4
542.6
150.3
174.3
206.2
231.7
249.3
57.9
62.0
67.6
73.2
74.9
73.3
82.5
99.3
119.1
132.1
74.4
75.5
76.9
81.4
86.2
33.0
39.4
45.8
55.7
72.3
62.8
66.2
69.0
73.9
73.7
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
..
1975*
738.4
579.4
278.2
77.0
135.1
89.1
88.1
70.9
1973: 1
II
Ill
IV
579.3
600.0
619.8
635.0
462.6
480.1
494.9
505.4
212.9
222.3
228.9
231.7
68.9
70.6
72.0
73.2
103.5
109.1
114.8
119.1
77.2
78.0
79.2
81.4
47.3
49.0
53.0
55.7
69.5
71.0
71.9
73.9
1974: 1
II
III...
IV
646.1
664.3
678.6
688.6
514.1
528.2
537.4
542.6
236.1
243.4
247.6
249.3
73.9
74.2
74.8
74.9
121.9
127.3
130.6
132.1
82.2
83.2
84.4
86.2
58.3
62.6
67.8
72.3
73.7
73.5
73.3
73.7
1975: 1...
II
ill
IV*__
695.0
708.9
724.4
738.4
546.7
558.2
569.5
579.4
252.4
261.3
270.6
278.2
75.2
75.8
76.4
77.0
131.9
133.0
134.0
135.1
87.2
88.0
88.5
89.1
75.8
79.7
84.0
88.1
72.5
71.1
70.8
70.9
„
1
Includes loans held by nondeposit trust companies, but not by bank trust departments.
1
Includes former Federal National Mortgage Association and new Government National Mortgage Association, as well as
Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration, Public Housing Admini stration, Farmers Home Administration,
and in earlier years Reconstruction Finance Corporation, Homeowners Loan C orporation, and Federal Farm Mortgage
Corporation. Also includes GNMA Pools and U.S.-sponsored agencies such as new FNMA, Federal Land Banks, and Federal
Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. Other U.S. agencies (amounts small or current separate data not readily available)
included with "individuals and others."
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, based on data from various Government and private organizaions
243
TABLE B-62.—Net public and private debt, 1929-74 1
[Billions of dollars]
Private
Public
Individual and noncorporate
End of year
Total
FedFederal
eral
Gov- financial
ernm e n t 2 agencies 3
Nonfarm
State
and
local
governments
Total
Corporate
Total
Total
Mortgage
Commercial
and
financial'
Farm*
Consumer
1929
191 9
16.5
13.6
161.8
88.9
72.9
12.2
60.7
31.2
22.4
7.1
1933
168 5
24.3
16.3
127.9
76.9
51.0
9.1
41.9
26.3
11.7
3.9
1939
183.3
42.6
16.4
124.3
73.5
50.8
8.8
42.0
25.0
9.8
7.2
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
189.8
211.4
258.6
313.2
370.6
44.8
56.3
101.7
154.4
211.9
16.4
16.1
15.4
14.5
13.9
128.6
139.0
141.5
144.3
144.8
75.6
83.4
91.6
95.5
94.1
53.0
55.6
49.9
48.8
50.7
9.1
9.3
9.0
8.2
7.7
43.9
46.3
40.9
40.5
42.9
26.1
27.1
26.8
26.1
26.0
9.5
10.0
8.1
9.5
11.8
8.3
9.2
6.0
4.9
5.1
1945
1946
1947 ..
1948
1949. _ .
405.9
396.6
415.7
431.3
445.8
252.5
229.5
221.7
215.3
217.6
~~~6.y
.6
.7
13.4
13.7
15.0
17.0
19.1
140.0
153.4
178.3
198.4
208.4
85.3
93.5
108.9
117.8
118.0
54.7
59.9
69.4
80.6
90.4
7.3
7.6
8.6
10.8
12.0
47.4
52.3
60.7
69.7
78.4
27.0
31.8
37.2
42.4
47.1
14.7
12.1
11.9
12.9
13.9
5.7
8.4
11.6
14.4
17.4
1950...
1951
1952 .
1953
1954
486.2
519.2
550.2
581.6
605.9
217.4
216.9
221.5
226.8
229.1
.7
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.3
21.7
24.2
27.0
30.7
35.5
246.4
276.8
300.4
322.7
340.0
142.1
162.5
171.0
179.5
182.8
104.3
114.3
129.4
143.2
157.2
12.3
13.7
15.2
16.8
17.5
92.0
100.6
114.2
126.4
139.7
54.8
61.7
68.9
76.7
86.4
15.8
16.2
17.8
18.4
20.8
21.5
22.7
27.5
31.4
32.5
1955
1956
1957 .
1958...
1959
665.8
698.4
728.3
769.6
833.0
229.6
224.3
223.0
231.0
241.4
2.9
2.4
2.4
2.5
3.7
41.1
44.5
48.6
53.7
59.6
392.2
427.2
454.3
482.4
528.3
212.1
231.7
246.7
259.5
283.3
180.1
195.5
207.6
222.9
245.0
18.7
19.4
20.2
23.2
23.8
161.4
176.1
187.4
199.7
221.2
98.7
109.4
118.1
128.1
141.0
24.0
24.4
24.3
26.5
28.7
38.8
42.3
45.0
45.1
51.5
874.2
930.3
996.0
1,070.9
1,151.6
239.8
246.7
253.6
257.5
264.0
3.5
4.0
5.3
7.2
7.5
64.9
70.5
77.0
83.9
90.4
566.1
609.1
660.1
722.3
789.7
302.8
324.3
348.2
376.4
409.6
263.3
284.8
311.9
345.8
380.1
25.1
27.5
30.2
33.2
36.0
238.2
257.3
281.7
312.6
344.1
151.3
164.5
180.3
198.6
218.9
30.8
34.8
37.6
42.3
45.0
56.1
58.0
63.8
71.7
80.3
1,243.6
1,338.6
1, 438. 1
1,581.3
„. 1, 736. 0
266.4
271.8
286.4
291.9
289.3
8.9
11.2
9.0
21.5
30.6
98.3 870.0
104.7
950.8
112.8 1, 030. 0
122.7 1,145.3
133.3 1,282.8
454.3
506.6
553.6
631.5
734.2
415.7
444.2
476.3
513.8
548.6
39.3
42.4
48.3
51.8
55.5
376.4
401.8
428.0
462.0
493.1
236.8
251.6
266.9
284.9
303.9
49.7
53.9
60.3
66.3
68.1
89.9
96.2
100.8
110.8
121.1
301.1
325.9
341.2
349.1
360.8
38.8
39.9
41.4
59.8
76.4
144.8
162.8
176.9
189.5
205.6
1, 383. 8
797.6 586.2
1,516.8
869.2 647.6
1, 723. 6
989.4 734.3
1, 947. 8 1,125.9 821.9
2, 134. 4 1,254.2 880.1
58.7
63.2
67.8
77.0
87.2
527.5
584.4
666.5
744.9
792.9
332.1
372.8
425.9
480.8
520.2
68.2
73.3
82.9
83.6
82.6
127.2
138.4
157.6
180.5
190.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
.
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969.. ._
1970
1971
1972-.. .
1973
1974_
1, 868. 5
2, 045. 4
2, 283. 1
2, 546. 2
2, 777. 3
i Net public and private debt is a comprehensive aggregate of the indebtedness of borrowers after eliminating certain
types of duplicating government and corporate debt.
3
Net Federal Government and agency debt is the outstanding debt held by the public, as defined in "The Budget of the
United States Government, Fiscal Year 1977."
3 This comprises the debt of federally sponsored agencies, in which there is no longer any Federal proprietary interest.
The obligations of the Federal Land Banks are included beginning with 1947, the debt of the Federal Home Loan Banks
is included beginning with 1951, and the debts of the Federal National Mortgage Association, Federal Intermediate Credit
Banks, and Banks for Cooperatives are included beginning with 1968.
< Farm mortgages and farm production loans. Farmers' financial and consumer debt is included in the nonfarm categories.
* Financial debt is debt owed to banks for purchasing or carrying securities, customers'debt to brokers, and debt owed
to life insurance companies by policyhoiders.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), based on data from various Federal agencies and
other sources.
244
GOVERNMENT FINANCE
TABLE B-63.—Federal budget receipts and outlays, f seal years 1929-77
[Millions of dollars]
Fiscal year
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or
deficit (-)
3,862
3,127
734
1933
1,997
4,598
-2, 602
1939
4,979
8,841
-3 862
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
6 361
8,621
14, 350
23 649
44, 276
9,456
13, 634
35,114
78, 533
91,280
-3 095
-5,013
-20, 764
-54 884
-47, 004
45 216
39, 327
38 394
41, 774
39, 437
92, 690
55, 183
34, 532
29, 773
38, 834
-47,474
-15,856
3 862
12,001
603
39 485
51 646
66 204
69 574
69*719
42, 597
45, 546
67,721
76, 107
70, 890
-3,112
6,100
-1,517
-6 533
-1 170
65 469
74 547
79, 990
79 636
79, 249
68, 509
70, 460
76, 741
82, 575
92, 104
-3 041
4,087
3,249
-2,939
-12,855
92, 492
94 389
99, 676
106 560
112,662
92, 223
97, 795
106,813
111,311
118,584
269
-3 406
-7,137
-4 751
-5,922
116,833
130, 856
149 552
153,671
187, 784
118,430
.134,652
158, 254
178,833
184, 548
-1,596
-3,796
-8 702
-25,161
3,236
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
193,743
188, 392
208, 649
232, 225
264, 932
196, 588
211,425
231,876
246, 526
268, 392
-2,845
-23,033
-23,227
-14,301
-3, 460
1975
1976 i._ -_
Transition quarter *
19771
280, 997
297, 534
81,894
351,262
324,601
373, 535
97,971
394, 237
-43,604
-76,001
-16,077
-42,975
. . .
1929
. -_
-
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
_ . . . - .
. .
...
.-
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
..
. -._ .
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965 „
1966
1967
1968
1969
1
- .. ..
..
__
Estimate.
Note.—Under provisions of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, the fiscal year for the Federal Government will shift
beginning with fiscal year 1977. Through 1976, the fiscal year runs from July 1 through June 30; starting in October 1976
(fiscal year 1977), the fiscal year will run from October 1 through September 30. The 3-month period from July 1, 1976
through September 30, 1976 will be a separate fiscal period known as the transition quarter.
Data for 1929-39 are according to the administrative budget and those beginning 1940 according to the unified budget.
Certain interfund transactions are excluded from receipts and outlays beginning 1932. For years prior to 1932 the amounts
of such transactions are not significant.
Refunds of receipts are excluded from receipts and outlays.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
245
TABLE B-64.—Federal budget receipts, outlays, and debt, fiscal years 1967-77
[Millions of dollars; fiscal years]
Act jal
1968
1967
1969
1970
1971
1972
BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS:
Total receipts
153, 671
187,784
193,743
188,392
208, 649
114 726
44 716
-5,771
143 321
52, 009
-7, 547
143, 158
59, 362
-8,778
133 785
66, 193
-11,586
148, 846
72, 959
-13, 156
158, 254
178, 833
184, 548
196, 588
211,425
231, 876
126, 779
36, 693
—5, 218
143 105
41 *, 499
-5 771
148, 811
43, 284
-7, 547
156, 301
49,065
-8 778
163 651
59 361
-11 586
177, 959
67, 073
-13 156
149, 552
Federal funds
Trust funds. _
Interfund transactions
111 835
42, 935
-5, 218
Total outlays
Federal funds
Trust funds
Interfund transactions
Total surplus or deficit (—)
Federal funds
Trust funds
-8, 702
-25, 161
3,236
-2, 845
—23,033
-23, 227
-14,944
6,242
-28, 379
3 217
-5, 490
8,725
-13,143
10, 297
—29 86b
6 832
-29, 114
5 886
341, 348
369, 769
367, 144
382,603
409 467
437, 329
73, 819
267, 529
79 140
290 629
87, 661
279 483
97, 723
284 880
105 140
304 328
i!3 559
323 770
46, 719
220, 810
52 230
238 399
54 095
225 388
57 714
227 166
65 518
238* 810
71 426
252 344
149, 552
153 671
187 784
193 743
188 392
208 649
61, 526
33, 971
33, 349
13,719
2,978
1,901
68 726
28 665
34] 622
14 079
3 051
2 038
87 249
36 678
39, 918
15 222
3 491
2 319
90 412
32 829
45, 298
15 705
3 644
2*430
86 230
26* 785
48] 578
16 614
3 735
2*591
94 737
32 166
53| 914
15 477
5 436
3 287
1,805
2 091
2 662
3 266
247
158
3 533
3 252
*381
OUTSTANDING DEBT, END OF YEAR:
Gross Federal debt.
Held by Government agencies
Held by the public
Federal Reserve System
Others
BUDGET RECEIPTS
Individual income taxes
Corporation income taxes
Social insurance taxes and contributions...
Excise taxes
Estate and gift taxes.
Customs duties
Miscellaneous receipts:
Deposit of earnings by Federal Reserve System
Another
BUDGET OUTLAYS
. .-
National defense
International affairs
General science, space, and technology
Natural resources, environment, and energy.
Agriculture
..
Commerce and transportation
Community and regional development
Education, training, employment, and
social services
- _ .
Health
Income security
- .Veterans benefits and services
Law enforcement and justice
General government
Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal
assistance
-.
Interest
Allowances.. _
_
.
Undistributed offsetting receipts
Composition of undistributed offsetting receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement..
Interest received by trust funds
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf
303
400
158 254
178 833
184 548
196 588
69, 101
4 695
6,231
3,697
2,982
9 205
1,412
79 409
4*612
5,522
4,010
4 541
10* 637
1 891
80 207
3 ? 784
5', 016
3,901
5 779
7 065
2 224
79 284
3 564
4*508
4,043
5 164
9*090
3* 166
6,023
6 759
30 821
6 899
6
11
37
7
1 649
7 888
13 051
43 066
8* 677
*952
1 940
55 423
Q 77fi
1 569
7 004
9 708
33* 680
6 882
'650
1 684
288
311
365
12 533
451
488
531
13 751
15 793
18 312
19 609
20 582
-4, 573
—5 460
—5 545
6 567
8 427
8 137
-1,661
-2, 275
-1, 825
-2 674
-2,018
-3 099
-2, 444
-3 936
-2,611
—4 765
-2, 768
—5 089
-428
—187
1 051
279
610
-637
-961
See next page for continuation of table and for footnotes.
325
246
871
758
281
640
761
Oil
AJf.
231 876
76 807
3 nqo
4,180
4,941
4 288
10* 396
3*632
77 356
3* 723
4,174
5,521
5 279
10*601
4*325
9 045
Id 71fi
1 ?QQ
2 159
11 694
17*471
63 911
in 73fi
i fisn
2 466
TABLE B-64.—Federal budget receipts, outlays, and debt, fiscal years 1967-77—Con.
[Millions of dollars; fiscal years)
Actual
1973
1974
Estimate
1975
Transition
quarter
1976
1977
BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS:
Total receipts...
Federal funds .
Trustfunds.
Interfund transactions
Total outlays. _
Federal funds
Trust funds
Interfund transactions..
232, 225
264, 932
280 997
297, 534
81 894
351, 262
161,357
92, 193
-21,325
181,219
104, 846
-21,133
187 505
118, 590
-25 098
198, 373
134, 754
-35 593
54 758
33, 783
—6 647
230 755
157, 684
—37 177
246, 526
268, 392
324, 601
373, 535
97,971
394, 237
186, 403
81, 447
-21,325
198, 692
90,833
-21,133
238, 527
111 171
-25 098
276, 923
132, 205
-35, 593
69, 764
34 855
-6, 647
286, 243
145 171
-37, 177
-14,301
-3,460
-43 604
-76, 001
-16,077
-42 975
-25, 046
10,746
-17,473
14,013
-51 023
7 419
-78, 550
2,549
-15 006
-1,072
—55 488
12,513
468, 426
486, 247
544, 131
633,931
652, 799
719,511
125, 381
343, 045
140, 194
346, 053
147, 225
396, 906
149, 525
484, 406
148, 393
504, 406
161, 265
558, 246
75, 182
267, 863
80, 649
265, 404
84, 993
311 913
232, 225
264, 932
280, 997
297, 534
81, 894
351,262
103, 246
36, 153
64, 542
16, 260
4,917
3,188
118,952
38, 620
76, 780
16,844
5,035
3,334
122, 386
40, 621
86, 441
16, 551
4,611
3,676
130, 822
40, 056
92, 571
16, 901
5,100
3,800
40, 003
8,416
25, 174
4,371
1,400
1,000
153, 641
49, 461
113,052
17, 806
5,800
4,300
3,495
4,845
5,777
524
934
5,550
2,734
1,350
426
180
6,200
1,002
246, 526
268, 392
324, 601
373, 535
97,971
394, 237
75, 072
National defense
.. 2,956
International affairs
4,030
General science, space, and technology
5,947
Natural resources, environment, and energy.
4,855
Agriculture
9,930
Commerce and transportation _ .
5,529
Community and regional development
Education, training,
employment, and
11,874
social services
.
18, 832
Health..
._
72, 958
Income security
12,013
Veterans benefits and services
2,131
Law enforcement and justice
2,682
General government. _ _ . . ...
...
Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal
7,222
assistance
22, 813
Interest
.
.
Allowances
-12,318
Undistributed offsetting receipts
78, 569
3,593
3,977
6,571
2,230
13, 096
4,911
86, 585
4,358
3,989
9,537
1,660
16,010
4,431
92, 759
5,665
4,311
11,796
2,875
17,801
5,802
25, 028
1,334
1,157
3,289
742
4,819
1,529
101, 129
6,824
4,507
13, 772
1,729
16, 498
5,532
11,598
22, 074
84,431
13,386
2,462
3,327
15, 248
27, 647
108, 605
16, 597
2,942
3,089
18, 900
32, 137
128, 509
19, 035
3,402
3,547
4,403
8,291
32, 742
4,362
16,615
34, 393
137,115
17, 196
3,426
3,433
6,746
28,072
7,005
30,974
7,169
34, 835
2,046
9,769
200
175
Total surplus or deficit (— )
Federal funds
Trust funds
OUTSTANDING DEBT, END OF YEAR:
Gross Federal debt
...
Held by Government agencies
Held by the public
Federal Reserve System _ _ . .
Others
BUDGET RECEIPTS
Individual income taxes
Corporation income taxes. .
Social insurance taxes and contributions..
Excise taxes
Estate and gift taxes .
Customs duties
Miscellaneous receipts:
Deposit of earnings by Federal Reserve
System
All other
BUDGET OUTLAYS
.
Composition of undistributed offsetting
receipts:
Employer share, employee retirement-Interest received by trust funds
Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf
914
961
-16,651
-14,075
-15,208
-3, 589
7,351
41, 297
2,260
-18,840
-2, 927
-5, 436
-3,319
-6, 583
-3,980
-7, 667
-4, 193
-8,015
-979
-2,110
-4, 468
-8, 373
-3, 956
-6, 748
-2, 428
-3, GOO
-500
-6, 000
Note.—Under provisions of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, the fiscal year for the Federal Government will shift
beginning with fiscal year 1977. Through 1976, the fiscal year runs from July 1 through June 30; starting in October 1976
(fiscal year 1977), the fiscal year will run from October 1 through September 30. The 3-month period from July 1,1976
through September 30,1976 will be a separate fiscal period known as the transition quarter.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
247
TABLE B-65.—Relation of the Federal budget to the Federal sector of the national income and
product accounts, fiscal years, 1975-77
[Billions of dollars; fiscal years]
Estimate
1975
Receipts and expenditures
actual
1976
Transition
quarter
1977
RECEIPTS
Total budget receipts
Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing)
Other netting and grossing
Adjustment to accruals
Other
Federal sector, national income and product accounts, receipts
281.0
297.5
5.1
2.4
5 6
-6.4
2.4
3.0
81.9
351 3
15
6 1
.6
2.7
2 7
5 5
-1.1
-.2
281.5
307.4
86.5
364 7
—.9
EXPENDITURES
Total budget outlays.
324.6
373.5
98.0
394 2
Lending and financial transactions
Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing)
Other netting and grossing...
__
Defense timing adjustment
Bonuses on Outer Continental Shelf land leases..
Other
-4.8
-5.4
5.1
2.4
-.6
2.0
-.1
5.6
2.4
.5
2.6
-.5
-1 2
-3 2
6 1
Federal sector, national income and product accounts, expenditures
328.7
378.7
1.5
.6
-1.5
.3
-.5
97.2
2.7
_ 5
5.4
-.2
404.5
Note.—See Note, Table B-64.
See Special Analysis A, "Special Analyses, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1977" for description
of these categories.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.
248
TABLE B-66.—Receipts and expenditures of the government sector of the national income and product
accounts, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Total government
Federal Government
State and local
government
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or
deficit
<-),
national
income
and
product accounts
1946
1947
1948
1949
51.0
56.9
58.9
55.9
45.6
42.5
50.5
59.3
5.4
14.4
8.4
-3.4
39.1
43.2
43.2
38.7
35.6
29.8
34.9
41.3
3.5
13.4
8.3
-2.6
13.0
15.4
17.7
19.5
11.1
14.4
17.6
20.2
1.9
1.0
.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
69.0
85.2
90.1
94.6
89.9
61.0
79.2
93.9
101.6
97.0
8.0
6.1
-3.8
-6.9
-7.1
50.0
64.3
67.3
70.0
63.7
40.8
57.8
71.1
77.1
69.8
9.2
6.5
-3.7
-7.1
-6.0
21.3
23.4
25.4
27.4
29.0
22.5
23.9
25.5
27.3
30.2
-1.2
-.4
-.0
.1
-1.1
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
101.1
109.7
116.2
115.0
129.4
98.0
104.5
115.3
127.6
131.0
3.1
5.2
.9
-12.6
-1.6
72.6
78.0
81.9
78.7
89.8
68.1
71.9
79.6
88.9
91.0
4.4
6.1
2.3
-10.3
-1.1
31.7
35.0
38.5
42.0
46.4
32.9
35.9
39.8
44.3
46.9
-1.3
-.9
-1.4
-2.4
-.4
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
139.5
144.8
156.7
168.5
174.0
136.4
149.1
160.5
167.8
176.3
3.1
-4.3
-3.8
.7
-2.3
96.1
98.1
106.2
114.4
114.9
93.1
101.9
110.4
114.2
118.2
3.0
-3,9
-4.2
.3
-3.3
49.9
54.0
58.5
63.2
69.5
49.8
54.4
58.0
62.8
68.5
.1
-.4
.5
.5
1.0
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
188.3
212.3
228.2
263.4
296.3
187.8
213.6
242.4
268.9
285.6
.5
-1.3
-14.2
-5.5
10.7
124.3
141.8
150.5
174.7
197.0
123.8
143.6
163.7
180.6
188.4
.5
-1.8
-13.2
-5.8
8.5
75.1
84.8
93.6
107.2
119.7
75.1
84.3
94.7
106.9
117.6
-.0
.5
-1.1
.3
2.1
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
302.6
322.2
367.4
411.1
453.9
311.9
340.5
370.9
405.1
457.5
-9.4
-18.3
-3.5
6.0
-3.6
192.1
198.6
227.5
257.9
288.4
204.2
220.6
244.7
264.8
300.1
-12.1
-22.0
-17.3
-6.9
-11.7
134.9
152.6
177.4
193.8
209.4
132.2
148.9
163.7
180.9
201.3
2.8
3.7
13.7
12.9
8.1
1975»
461.7
525.1
-63.5
283.5
356.9
-73.4
232.4
222.4
10.0
1973: 1
II
III
IV
399.5
406.5
414.9
423.6
394.5
400.6
407.2
418.1
5.0
5.8
7.7
5.5
250.8
254.8
259. 8
266.2
261.7
262.1
264.5
270.8
-10.9
-7.4
-4.8
-4.6
190.3
192.1
195.2
197.6
174.4
178.9
182.8
187.5
15.9
13.2
12.4
10.1
1974: 1
!!__..
Ill
IV . .
434.9
449.5
468.7
462.6
431.0
449.2
467.7
482.2
4.0
.3
1.0
-19.6
275.7
285.6
299.2
293.1
281.1
293.5
307.2
318.6
-5.3
-7.9
-8.0
-25.5
201.9
207. 3
213.5
214.9
192.6
199.1
204.5
209.0
9.4
8.2
9.1
5.9
1975: 1...
II ..
III.
IV*
454.7
425.5
474.2
502.8
518.9
531.8
547.0
-48.0
-93.4
-57.6
283.6
250.1
293.3
337.4 -53.7
352.3 -102.2
363.8 -70.5
374.2
221.2
228.2
237.7
215.5
219.4
224.8
229.9
5.7
8.8
12.9
Calendar year or quarter
.
.
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or
deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product accounts
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or
deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product accounts
Note.—Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments are reflected in Federal expenditures and State and local
receipts and expenditures. Total government receipts and expenditures have been adjusted to eliminate this duplication.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
249
TABLE B-67.—Receipts and expenditures of the Federal Government sector of the national income
and product accounts, 1949-77
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Expenditures
Receipts
Yearorquarte
Fiscal year:
1951
1952
1953
1954.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969.
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974.
1975
19762
19772
Calendar year:
1949
1950 ..
1951
1952
1953 ...
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975p..._
Personal Corpotax
rate
and profits
Total nontax
tax
acre- cruals
ceipts
Transfer
payments
Indirect
business
tax
and
nontax
accruals
PurConchases
tribuof
tions
for Total i goods To
and
social
perserv- sons
insurices
ance
Grantsin-aid
to State
and
To
forlocal
eign- governers ments
Net
interest
paid
Surplus
Subsior
dies
defiless
cit
cur- (-),
rent
nasurtionplus
al inof
come
govand
ern- prodment
uct
enter- acprises counts
61.1
65.2
69.4
65.8
67.4
76.3
81.0
78.1
85.4
94.8
95.0
104.0
110.0
115.6
120.0
132.7
146.0
160.0
190.1
194.9
192.5
213.5
240.0
271.6
281.5
307.4
364.7
23.2
28.8
31.4
30.3
29.7
33.6
36.7
36.3
38.2
42.5
43.6
47.3
49.6
50.7
51.4
57.5
64.4
71.4
90.0
93.6
87.5
100.3
107.3
122.9
126.4
136.4
160.4
21.7
19.4
19.7
17.3
18.9
21.5
20.8
17.9
21.4
22.3
20.0
22.7
23.3
25.7
27.1
30.8
30.3
33.2
37.0
33.0
32.0
34.2
40.5
43.6
40.6
47.5
58.2
9.5
9.7
10.7
10.4
10.0
10.8
11.7
11.6
12.0
13.2
13.3
14.2
15.0
15.6
16.9
15.5
15.8
17.1
18.6
19.2
20.0
19.9
20.7
21.4
22.4
24.0
24.3
6.7
7.3
7.6
7.8
8.7
10.3
11.7
12.3
13.9
16.7
18.1
19.9
22.1
23.6
24.5
28.9
35.5
38.4
44.5
49.2
52.9
59.1
71.5
83.7
92.0
99.5
121.8
44.7 25.7 8.1
66.0 47.2 8.5
75.9 56.4 9.2
74.3 53.9 10.5
67.2 44.3 12.1
70.0 45.5 12.8
76.0 48.1 14.4
82.8 51.1 17.8
91.2
54.8 19.9
52.9 20.6
91.3
98.1 55.8 23.6
106.2 61.0 25.1
111.7
63.7 26.5
117.2
65.9 27.4
118.5 64.6 28.4
132.7
72.4 31.8
154.9
86.0 37.2
172.2 95.0 42.7
184.7 98.0 48.7
195.6 97.0 55.0
212.7 94.8 67.7
232.9 100.9 76.1
256.1 101.5 87.1
278.7 104.5 101.7
328.7 117.6 131.7
378.7 130.0 155.1
404.5 139.4 164.4
3.1
2.6
2.1
1.7
2.1
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.0
2.3
2.8
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.6
3.8
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.7
4.7
6.2
6.9
6.9
7.6
8.3
9.8
10.9
12.7
14.8
17.8
19.2
22.6
26.8
32.6
40.4
41.6
48.3
57.8
59.3
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.8
5.3
5.4
5.6
6.8
6.4
6.4
7.1
7.7
8.2
8.7
9.6
10.5
12.1
13.6
14.2
14.1
15.9
19.8
22.0
26.0
32.0
1.0
.8
.9
.8
1.2
1.7
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.4
3.3
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.8
5.2
4.1
4.6
5.4
6.8
6.4
9.1
7.9
5.7
6.2
5.6
16.4
-.8
-6.5
-8.5
.2
6.3
5.0
-4.7
-5.8
3.4
-3.1
-2.2
-1.7
-1.5
1.4
.0
-8.9
-12.2
5.4
-.6
-20.2
-19.5
-16.1
-7.1
-47.2
-71.3
-39.8
38.7
50.0
64.3
67.3
70.0
63.7
72.6
78.0
81.9
78.7
89.8
96.1
98.1
106.2
114.4
114.9
124.3
141.8
150.5
174.7
197.0
192.1
198.6
227.5
257.9
288.4
283.5
16.1
18.1
26.1
31.0
32.2
29.0
31.4
35.2
37.4
36.8
39.9
43.6
44.7
48.6
51.5
48.6
53.9
61.7
67.5
79.6
94.8
92.2
89.9
108.2
114.7
131.4
125.6
9.6
17.2
21.7
18.6
19.5
16.9
21.1
20.9
20.4
18.0
22.5
21.4
21.5
22.5
24.6
26.1
28.9
31.4
30.0
36.3
36.2
30.8
33.5
36.6
42.5
45.9
40.2
8.0
8.9
9.4
10.3
10.9
9.7
10.7
11.2
11.8
11.5
12.5
13.4
13.6
14.6
15.3
16.2
16.5
15.6
16.3
18.0
19.0
19.3
20.4
20.0
21.2
21.7
24.2
5.0
5.9
7.1
7.4
7.4
8.2
9.4
10.6
12.3
12.4
14.9
17.6
18.3
20.5
23.1
24.0
25.0
33.1
36.7
40.8
47.0
49.7
54.9
62.8
79.4
89.4
93.5
41.3
40.8
57.8
71.1
77.1
69.8
68.1
71.9
79.6
88.9
91.0
93.1
101.9
110.4
114.2
118.2
123.8
143.6
163.7
180.6
188.4
204.2
220.6
244.7
264.8
300.1
356.9
20.4
18.7
38.3
52.4
57.5
47.9
44.5
45.9
50.0
53.9
53.9
53.7
57.4
63.7
64.6
65.2
67.3
78.8
90.9
98.0
97.5
95.6
96.2
102.1
102.0
111.7
123.1
8.7
10.8
8.5
8.8
9.4
11.5
12.4
13.4
15.7
19.6
20.1
21.6
25.0
25.6
27.0
27.9
30.3
33.5
40.1
46.0
50.6
61.3
72.7
80.5
93.2
114.5
146.1
5.1
3.6
3.1
2.1
2.0
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.7
2.6
3.2
3.0
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.3
4.2
5.6
6.8
6.5
7.2
8.0
9.1
10.4
11.1
14.4
15.9
18.6
20.3
24.4
29.0
37.5
40.6
43.9
54.2
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
5.1
5.5
5.2
6.2
6.8
6.2
6.8
7.3
8.0
8.4
9.2
9.8
11.4
12.9
14.3
14.0
14.6
18.2
21.0
23.5
.6
1.0
.9
.8
.7
1.0
1.5
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.1
2.6
4.0
4.2
3.9
4.5
4.6
5.5
4.7
4.5
5.2
6.3
6.2
7.8
8.2
5.2
6.8
-2.6
9.2
6.5
-3.7
-7.1
-6.0
4.4
6.1
2.3
-10.3
-1.1
3.0
-3.9
-4.2
.3
-3.3
.5
-1.8
-13.2
-5.8
8.5
-12.1
-22.0
-17.3
-6.9
-11.7
-73.4
1974: 1
IL.
III
IV
275.7
285.6
299.2
293.1
124.2
129.5
134.6
137.4
43.1 21.3
45.8 21.7
51.8 22.1
42.9 21.7
87.2
88.6
90.8
91.1
281.1
293.5
307.2
318.6
106.1
108.9
113.6
118.2
104.2
111.0
118.0
124.8
2.8
3.9
3.2
3.0
42.7
43.4
44.0
45.4
19.9
20.8
21.4
22.0
5.3
5.0
5.5
5.1
-5.3
-7.9
-8.0
-25.5
1975: 1
II
Ill
IV*
283.6 137.6 32.1
250.1 99.3 35.5
293.3 130.5 43.4
135.2
91.7 337.4 119.4
91.9 352.3 119.2
93.9 363.8 124.2
96.4 374.2 129.8
136.2
147.3
149.5
151.5
3.0
3.2
3.0
3.1
50.1
52.8
56.8
57.1
22.4
22.6
23.4
25.7
6.3
7.1
6.9
7.0
-53.7
-102.2
-70.5
22.3
23.5
25.5
25.4
1
Wage accruals less disbursements have been subtracted from total. These were (in billions of dollars at seasonally
adjusted annual rates) .0, —.6, —1.5, and .0 in the 4 quarters of 1974. and .0 in each of the 4 quarters of 1975.
2 Estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Office of Management and Budget.
250
TABLE B-68.—Receipts and expenditures of the State and local government sector of the national
income and product accounts, 1946—75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Receipts
Calendar
year or
quarter
Total
Expenditures
Subsidies
Pur- Transdirect tontriPerless
busichases
fer
Corutions Fedonal
of
payorate ness
Net current
eral
tax
for
urplus
tax
ments nterest of gov)rofits
rants- Total i goods
social
and
tax
and
and
to
paid
ontax ccruals
ernontax nsur- n-aid
servperceipts
ment
ccruals ance
ices
sons
enterprises
Surplus
or
deficit
national
ncome
and
product accounts
!e
9.3
10.7
12.2
13.3
0.6
.7
.8
.9
1.1
1.7
2.0
2.2
11.1
14.4
17.6
20.2
9.9
12.8
15.3
18.0
1.7
2.3
3.0
3.0
0.2
.1
.1
.1
-0.7
-.8
-.8
-.9
1.9
1.0
.1
-.7
.8
.9
.8
.8
.8
14.6
15.9
17.4
18.8
19.9
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
22.5
23.9
25.5
27.3
30.2
19.8
21.8
23.2
25.0
27.8
3.6
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.6
.1
.0
.0
.0
.1
-i.'o
-1.1
g
-1.2
-.4
-.0
3.9
4.5
5.0
5.4
6.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
21.6
23.8
25.7
27.2
29.3
2.1
2.3
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.3
4.2
5.6
6.8
32.9
35.9
39.8
44.3
46.9
30.6
33.5
37.1
41.1
43.7
3.8
3.9
4.3
4.8
5.1
.1
.1
.1
.1
.1
-1.5
-1.6
-1.7
-1.7
-2.0
-1.3
-.9
-1.4
-2.4
-.4
49.9
54.0
58.5
63.2
69.5
6.7
7.4
8.2
8.8
10.0
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.8
32.0
34.4
37.0
39.4
42.6
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.7
6.5
7.2
8.0
9.1
10.4
49.8
54.4
58.0
62.8
68.5
46.5
50.8
54.3
59.0
64.6
5.4
5.8
6.0
6.4
6.9
.1
.1
.1
.1
-.1
-2.2
-2.3
-2.5
-2.8
-2.8
.1
-.4
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
75.1
84.8
93.6
107.2
119.7
10.9
12.8
14.6
17.4
20.6
2.0
2.2
2.5
3.1
3.4
46.1
49.7
54.0
60.8
67.4
5.0
5.7
6.7
7.2
7.9
11.1
14.4
15.9
18.6
20.3
75.1
84.3
94.7
106.9
117.6
71.1
79.8
89.3
100.7
110.4
7.3
8.1
9.4
10.6
12.1
-.3
-.7
-.9
-1.2
-1.6
-3.0
-3.0
-3.1
-3.2
-3.3
-.0
-ill
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
134.9
152.6
177.4
193.8
209.4
23.1
26.4
33.0
36.5
39.8
3.7
4.2
5.0
5.7
6.7
74.7
83.1
91.0
99.0
105.6
9.0
9.9
10.8
12.1
13.5
24.4
29.0
37.5
40.6
43.9
132.2
148.9
163.7
180.9
201.3
123.2
137.5
151.0
168.0
189.4
14.6
17.2
18.9
20.3
20.0
-2.0
-1.8
-2.1
-2.9
-3.6
-3.6
-3.8
-4.2
-4.5
-4.5
2.8
3.7
13.7
12.9
8.1
1975 P
232.4
43 5
6.8
113.0
14.8
54.2
222.4
207.8
22.5
-3.0
-4.9
10.0
1973- |
190.3
192.1
195.2
197.6
34.7
35.7
37.2
38.3
5.7
5.8
5.6
5.7
96.8
98.3
100.1
100.8
11.5
11.9
12.3
12.6
41.6
40.4
40.1
40.2
174.4
178.9
182.8
187.5
161.6
165.8
170.0
174.5
19.8
20.1
20.4
20.9
-2.6
-2.5
-3.0
-3.4
-4.5
-4.5
-4.6
-4.4
15.9
13.2
12.4
10.1
1974: 1
II
III.
IV.
201.9
207.3
213.5
214.9
37.9
38.9
40.7
41.5
6.3
6.7
7.6
6.3
102.1
104.9
107.6
107.8
12.9
13.3
13.7
14.0
42.7
43.4
44.0
45.4
192.6
199.1
204.5
209.0
181.4
187.6
192.3
196.3
19.3
19.7
20.4
20.7
-3.7
-3.7
-3.6
-3.3
-4.3
-4.5
-4.6
-4.7
9.4
8.2
9.1
5.9
1975: L.
II
III
IVp___.
221.2
228.2
237.7
42.0
42.9
44.1
45.2
5.5
6.1
7.3
109.3
111.8
114.5
116.4
14.3
14.7
15.0
15.3
50.1
52.8
56.8
57.1
215.5
219.4
224.8
229.9
201.9
205.5
209.9
214.1
21.5
22.1
22.9
23.7
-3.2
-3.2
-2.9
-2.8
-4.7
-4.9
-5.0
-5.1
5.7
8.8
12.9
1946
1947
1948
1949
13.0
15.4
17.7
19.5
1.5
1.7
2.1
2.4
0.5
.6
21.3
23.4
25.4
27.4
29.0
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.5
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
31.7
35.0
38.5
42.0
46.4
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
.- -
-
||
III
IV
-
-1.2
-1.3
-I'.l
J
2'.1
1
Wage accruals less disbursements have been subtracted from total. These were (in billions of dollars, at seasonally
adjusted annual rates) .0, —.1, .0, and .0 in the 4 quarters of 1973 and .0 in each of the quarters of 1974 and 1975.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
251
TABLE B-69.—State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected fiscal years, 1927-74
[Millions of dollars]
General revenues by source 2
Fiscal year *
Total
Property
taxes
Sales
and
gross
receipts
taxes
General expenditures by function *
ReveIndi- Corponue
All
vidual ration
from
other
:
net
ncome
ederal revetaxes income Govern- nues 3
taxes
ment
Total
Education
Highways
Public
welfare
All
other <
1927
7,271
4,730
470
70
92
116
1,793
7,210
2,235
1,809
151
3,015
1932
1934
1936 .
1938
7,267
7,678
8,395
9,228
4,487
4,076
4,093
4,440
752
1,008
1,484
1,794
74
80
153
218
79
49
113
165
232
1,016
948
800
1,643
1,449
1,604
1,811
7,765
7, 181
7,644
8,757
2,311
1,831
2,177
2,491
1,741
1,509
1,425
1,650
444
889
827
1,069
3,269
2,952
3215
3,547
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
9,609
10,418
10,908
12,356
17,250
4,430
4,537
4,604
4,986
6,126
1,982
2,351
2,289
2,986
4,442
224
276
342
422
543
156
272
451
447
592
945
858
954
855
1,861
1,872 9,229
2,123 9,190
2,269 8,863
2,661 11,028
3,685 17,684
2,638
2,586
2,793
3,356
5,379
1,573
1,490
1,200
1,672
3,036
1,156
1,225
1,133
1,409
2,099
3,862
3,889
3,737
4,591
7,170
1950
1952
1953
1954
20,911
25, 181
27, 307
29,012
7,349
8,652
9,375
9,967
5,154
6,357
6,927
7,276
788
998
1,065
1,127
593
846
817
778
2,486
2,566
2,870
2,966
4,541
5,763
6,252
6,897
22, 787 7,177
26,098 8,318
27,910 9,390
30,701 10, 557
3,803
4,650
4,987
5,527
2,940 8,867
2,788 10,342
2,914 10,619
3,060 11,557
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
31,073
34,667
38, 164
41,219
45,306
10, 735 7,643
11,749 8,691
12,864 9,467
14,047 9,829
14,983 10,437
1,237
1,538
1,754
1,759
1,994
744
890
984
1,018
1,001
3,131 7,584
3,335 8,465
3,843 9,250
4,865 9,699
6,377 10, 516
33,724
36,711
40, 375
44,851
48,887
11,907
13, 220
14, 134
15,919
17, 283
6,452
6,953
7,816
8,567
9,592
3,168
3,139
3,485
3,818
4,136
12, 197
13, 399
14,940
16,547
17, 876
1960
1961
1962
1963
50,505
54,037
58,252
62,890
16, 405
18,002
19,054
20,089
11,849
12,463
13, 494
14,456
2,463
2,613
3,037
3,269
1,180
1,266
1,308
1,505
6,974
7,131
7,871
8,722
51,876
56,201
60, 206
64, 816
18,719 9,428
20, 574 9,844
22, 216 10,357
23,776 11,136
4,404
4,720
5,084
5,481
19, 325
21, 063
22, 549
24, 423
62,269 19,833 14,446
68,443 21,241 15,762
74,000 22, 583 17,118
3,267
3,791
4,090
1,505 8,663 14, 556 63, 977 23, 729 11,150
1,695 10,002 15,951 69,302 26,286 11,664
1,929 11,029 17,250 74, 546 28, 563 12,221
...
.
1962-63 6
1963-64 6
1964-65 6
11,634
12,563
13, 489
14,850
5,420 23,678
5,766 25,586
6,315 27,447
1965-666
1966-67*
1967-686
1968-696
1969-706
83,036
91, 197
101,264
114,550
130,756
24,670
26,047
27, 747
30, 673
34,054
19,085 4,760
20,530 5,826
22,911 7,308
26, 519 8,908
30, 322 10,812
2,038
2,227
2,518
3,180
3,738
13, 214
15,370
17, 181
19, 153
21, 857
19, 269
21,197
23, 598
26,118
29,971
82, 843
93,350
102,411
116,728
131,332
33, 287
37,919
41, 158
47, 238
52,718
12, 770 6,757 30,029
13,932 8,218 33, 281
14,481 9,857 36,915
15,417 12,110 41,963
16,427 14,679 47, 508
1970-716
1971-725
1972-73 6
1973-745
144,927
166,352
190, 214
207, 730
37, 852
42,133
45,283
47, 754
33,233
37, 488
42,047
46, 098
3,424
4,416
5,425
6,015
26, 146
31,253
39, 256
41, 831
32,374
35,826
40,210
46, 541
150, 674
166,873
181, 227
198, 959
59, 413
64,886
69, 714
75, 833
18, 095
19,010
18,615
19,946
11,900
15,237
17,994
19, 491
18,226
21,070
23, 582
25, 085
54, 940
61,907
69, 316
78,096
i
Fiscal years not the same for all governments. See footnote 5.
3
Excludes revenues or expenditures of publicly owned utilities and liquor stores, and of insurance-trust activities.
Intergovernmental receipts and payments between State and local governments are also excluded.
s Includes licenses and other taxes and charges and miscellaneous revenues.
* Includes expenditures for health, hospitals, police, local fire protection, natural resources, sanitation, housing and
urban renewal, local parks and recreation, general control, financial administration, interest on general debt, and unallocable expenditures.
6 Data for fiscal year ending in the 12-month period through June 30. Data for 1963 and earlier years include local government amounts grouped in terms of fiscal years ended during the particular calendar year.
Note.—Data are not available for intervening years.
See Table B-62 for net debt of State and local governments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
252
TABLE B-70.—Public debt securities by kind of obligation, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars]
Interest- bearing public debt
End of year or
month
Total
public
debt
securities
Marketable public issues
by maturity class
Within
1 year
ItolO
years
10
years
and
over
Nonmarketable public
issues
U.S.
savings
bonds
and
notes
Foreign
and
international
Other
Government
account
series^
Matured
public
debt
and
debt
bearing no
interest
1946
1947
1948
1949
259.1
256.9
252.8
257.1
54.8
49.6
44.6
49.4
61.7
56.1
55.1
51.8
60.1
60,0
57.7
53.9
49.8
52.1
55.1
56.7
6.7
7.4
6.3
9.3
24.6
29.0
31.7
33.9
1.5
2.7
2.2
2.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
256.7
259.4
267.4
275.2
278.7
280.8
276.6
274.9
282.9
290.8
49.4
47.1
57.7
73.9
62.8
61.7
68.6
75.3
72.6
79.9
50.5
56.7
62.2
50.4
64.7
68.6
58.9
56.9
71.0
83.7
52.5
38.8
28.7
30.3
30.2
32.9
32.9
32.0
32.0
24.6
58.0
57.6
57.9
57.7
57.7
57.9
56.3
52.5
51.2
48.2
10.1
20.9
19.6
19.3
17.7
12.7
11.9
10.4
9.2
7.8
33.7
35.9
39.1
41.2
42.6
43.9
45.6
45.8
44.8
43.5
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.3
3.0
3.0
2.4
2.0
2.1
3.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
290.2
296.2
303.5
309.3
317.9
320.9
329.3
344.7
358.0
368.2
75.3
85.9
87.3
89.4
88.5
93.4
105.2
104.4
108.6
118.1
89.5
84.7
95.6
94.2
100.4
95.6
87.5
97.0
103.4
93.3
24.2
25.4
20.1
24.0
23.6
25.6
25.4
25.1
24.8
24.4
47.2
47.5
47.5
48.8
49.7
50.3
50.8
51.7
52.3
52.2
0.5
.7
1.3
1.8
2.4
1.5
3.2
4.4
4.7
6.3
5.3
4.6
3.8
3.5
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
44.3
43.5
43.4
43.7
46.1
46.3
52.0
57.2
59.1
71.0
3.4
3.5
4.3
4.1
4.4
4.4
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
389.2
424.1
449.3
469.9
M92.7
576.6
123.4
119.1
130.4
141.6
148.1
199.7
104.9
123.0
117.7
106.8
113.2
138.7
19.4
19.9
21.4
21.8
21.6
24.8
52.5
54.9
58.1
60.8
63.8
67.9
6.5
17.4
21.3
26.9
22.8
21.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.8
3.0
3.6
78.1
85.7
95.9
107.1
119.1
119.4
468.2
470.7
474.5
471.9
474.7
475.1
141.6
141.4
145.5
140.9
142.9
139.9
106.8
106.0
106.0
107.5
104.1
104.2
21.7
22.2
22.1
22.0
22.6
22.5
61.0
61.3
61.6
61.9
62.1
62.4
26.2
26.3
26.1
26.6
26.9
25.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
106.2
108.6
108.5
108.4
111.3
115.4
2475.3
481.8
481. 5
480.2
485.4
492.7
142.2
142.9
143.4
144.4
143.4
148.1
104.2
108.4
108.4
108.4
112.6
113.2
22.4
20.8
20.8
20.8
21.5
21.6
62.7
62.8
63.0
63.3
63.6
63.8
24.4
23.2
23.2
23.1
23.1
22.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
115.5
119.6
118.3
116.2
116.9
119.1
494.1
499.7
509.7
516.7
528.2
533.2
149.4
154.8
158.1
161.0
164.2
163.9
115.2
112.6
119.6
122.6
127.7
128.7
21.5
22.4
22.3
23.5
23.0
22.9
64.2
64.5
64.8
65.2
65.5
65.9
23.0
23.3
24.0
23.6
23.5
23.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
116.9
118.1
116.8
116.8
120.1
124.2
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
538.2
547.7
553.6
562.0
566.8
576.6
168.8
179.8
180.2
186.0
192.8
199.7
132.0
127.3
134.9
141.1
138.2
138.7
22.8
23.9
23.8
23.8
24.8
24.8
66.3
66.6
66.9
67.2
67.6
67.9
22.2
21.6
21.5
21.2
21.3
21.6
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
121.7
124.1
121.9
118.2
117.5
119.4
1.0
1.0
1.0
.9
1.0
1.0
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct. .
Nov
Dec .
1
li
2.9
2.0
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.1
21.1
1.0
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.8
21.0
1.1
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.1
Prior to July 1974, this series was shown as "Special issues."
2 Beginning July 1974, excludes the non-interest-bearing notes issued to International Monetary Fund, to conform with
Budget presentation.
Source: Department of the Treasury.
253
597-578 O - 76 - 17
TABLE B-71.—Estimated ownership of public debt securities, 1946-75
[Par values;^ billions of dollars]
Total public debt securities
Held by private investors
End of year or
month
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967 .
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
.
Total
. .
.
.
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Julv
AUK
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1975- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
_ _.
. .
Held
by
Government
accounts
Held by
Federal
Reserve
Banks
Total
Mutual
savings
State
MiscelCombanks Other
Indi- 6 aneous
mercial and in- corpo- nd local viduals
invesbanks 2 surance rations 3 governments *
tors 6
companies
259.1
256.9
252.8
257.1
256.7
259.4
267.4
275.2
278.7
280.8
276.6
274.9
282.9
290.8
290.2
296.2
303.5
309.3
317.9
320.9
329.3
344.7
358.0
368.2
389.2
424.1
449.3
469.9
M92.7
576.6
27.4
30.8
33.7
35.9
36.0
39.3
42.9
45.4
46.7
49.0
51.2
52.8
52.1
51.4
52.8
52.5
53.2
55.3
58.4
59.7
65.8
73.1
76.6
89.0
97.1
106.0
116.9
129.6
141.2
139.3
23.3
208.3
22.6
203.6
23.3 195.8
18.9 202.4
20.8 199.9
23.8
196.3
24.7 199.8
203.8
25.9
24.9 207.1
24.8
207.0
200.5
24.9
24.2
197.9
26.3 204.5
212.7
26.6
27.4 210.0
214.8
28.9
30.8 219.5
220.5
33.6
222.5
37.0
40.8 220.5
44.3 219.2
49.1 222.4
52.9 228.5
57.2
222.0
62.1 229.9
70.2 247.9
262.5
69.9
78.5
261.7
80.5 7271.0
87.9 349.4
74.5
68.7
62.4
66.8
61.8
61.5
63.4
63.7
69.1
62.0
59.5
59.5
67.5
60.3
62.1
67.2
67.1
64.2
63.9
60.7
57.4
63.8
66.0
56.8
62.7
65.3
67.7
60.3
55.6
85.8
36.7
35.9
32.7
31.5
29.6
26.2
25.5
25.1
24.1
23.1
21.2
20.1
19.8
19.4
18.1
17.6
17.6
17.0
16.8
15.8
14.5
13.2
12.2
10.7
10.5
10.1
10.0
9.3
8.7
13.4
15.3
14.1
14.8
16.8
19.7
20.7
19.9
21.5
19.1
23.2
18.7
17.7
18.1
21.4
18.7
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.2
15.8
14.9
12.2
14.2
10.4
7.3
11.4
9.8
10.9
11.0
20.3
6.3
7.3
7.9
8.1
8.8
9.6
11.1
12.7
14.4
15.4
16.3
16.6
16.5
18.0
18.7
19.0
20.1
21.1
21.1
22.9
24.3
24.1
24.9
27.2
27.8
25.4
28.9
29.2
29.2
34.2
64.1
65.7
65.5
66.3
66.3
64.6
65.2
64.8
63.5
65.0
65.9
64.9
63.7
69.4
66.1
65.8
65.9
68.0
69.5
71.9
74.2
73.5
75.1
80.8
81.2
73.2
73.9
77.3
84.8
91.0
11.4
11.9
12.5
12.9
13.6
13.7
14.7
16.1
16.9
18.3
18.9
19.1
18.9
24.3
26.5
26.9
30.2
31.6
33.0
33.4
33.9
35.7
36.1
36.1
40.4
62.5
72.3
74.8
781.6
104.7
468.2
470.7
474.5
471.9
474.7
475.1
7475.3
481.8
481.5
480.2
485.4
492.7
494.1
499.7
509.7
516.7
528.2
533.2
538.2
547.7
553.6
562.0
566.8
576.6
128.7
131.3
131.2
131.1
133.9
138.2
137.5
141.6
140.6
138.4
139.0
141.2
139.0
139.8
138.5
138.0
140.9
145.3
142.5
144.8
142.3
138.8
137 7
139.3
78.2 261.2
78.2
261.1
79.5 263.8
80.0 260.7
81.4
259.4
80.5 256.4
78.1 7 259. 7
81.1 259.0
81.0 260.1
79.4 262.5
265.3
81.0
80.5
271.0
81.3 273.8
81.1 278.9
81.4
289.8
87.8 290.9
85.6 301.7
84.7
303.2
81.9
313.8
82.5 320.4
87.0
324.4
87.2 336.0
85.1 344.0
87.9 349.4
60.2
59.0
59.5
56.8
54.4
53.2
53.5
53.1
52.0
52.7
53.7
55.6
54.6
56.5
61.8
64.1
67.7
69.2
71.4
75.4
78.4
80.5
82.6
85.8
9.1
8.8
8.9
8.6
8.6
8.5
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.7
8.9
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
10.6
11.0
11.3
11.6
12.1
13.2
13.4
10.7
10.9
11.7
10.5
11.2
10.8
11.3
11.0
10.5
11.2
11.0
11.0
11.3
11.4
12.0
12.5
13.7
13.2
16.2
16.0
15.0
17.5
20.0
20.3
29.9
30.7
30.6
30.1
29.2
28.3
28.8
29.2
29.3
28.8
28.7
29.2
30.0
30.5
29.7
29.8
29.8
29.6
31.3
31.2
32.2
33.8
33.9
34.2
77.4
77.9
78.4
79.2
80.0
80.7
81.6
82.6
83.3
83.8
84.3
84.8
85.3
85.3
85.7
86.1
86.6
87.1
87.6
88.7
89.4
90.0
90.6
91.0
73.9
73.9
74.7
75.6
75.9
75.0
776.1
74.9
76.6
77.7
79.1
81.6
83.8
86.2
91.1
88.5
93.4
93.4
96.2
97.8
97.8
102.1
103.7
104.7
1 U.S. savings bonds, series A-F and J, and U.S. savings notes are included at current redemption value.
2
Includes commercial banks, trust companies, and stock savings banks in the United States and Territories and island
possessions; figures exclude securities held in trust departments. Since the estimates in this table are on the basis of par
values and include holdings of banks in United States Territories and possessions, they do not agree with the estimates
in Table B-52, which are based on book values and relate only to banks within the United States.
3
Exclusive of banks and insurance companies.
< Includes trust, sinking, and investment funds of State and local governments and their agencies, and of Territories
and possessions.
8
Includes partnerships and personal trust accounts.
• Includes savings and loan associations, nonprofit institutions, corporate pension trust funds, dealers and brokers,
certain government deposit account and government-sponsored agencies, and investments of foreign balances and international accounts in this country Beginning December 1946, the international accounts include investments by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Monetary Fund, International Development Association,
Inter-American Development, Bank, and various United Nations' funds, in special non-interest-bearing notes and bonds
issued
by the U.S. Government. See also footnote 7.
.
7
Beginning July 1974, excludes non-interest-bearing notes issued to International Monetary Fund, to conform with
Budget presentation.
Source: Department of the Treasury.
254
TABLE B-72.—Average length and maturity distribution of marketable interest-bearing
public debt, 1946-75
End of year or month
Amount
outstanding
Maturity class
Within
1 year
Ito5
years
5 to 10
years
10 to 20
years
20 years
and over
Millions of dollars
Fiscal year:
1946
1947
1948
1949
Average length
Years
Months
189,606
168,702
160, 346
155, 147
61,974
51, 211
48,742
48, 130
24,763
21, 851
21,630
32,562
41, 807
35,562
32, 264
16, 746
17,461
18, 597
16, 229
22, 821
43, 599
41, 481
41,481
34, 888
9
9
9
8
9
155, 310
137,917
140,407
147,335
150,354
42,338
43,908
46,367
65, 270
62, 734
51,292
46, 526
47, 814
36, 161
29, 866
7,792
8,707
13,933
15,651
27, 515
28,035
29,979
25,700
28,662
28, 634
25, 853
8,797
6,594
1,592
1,606
8
6
5
5
5
2
7
8
4
6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
155, 206
154,953
155,705
166,675
178,027
49,703
58, 714
71,952
67,782
72,958
39, 107
34, 401
40,669
42, 557
58, 304
34, 253
28,908
12,328
21,476
17,052
28,613
28, 578
26, 407
27,652
21,625
3,530
4,351
4,349
7,208
8,088
5
5
4
5
4
10
4
9
3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
183, 845
187, 148
196,072
203, 508
206, 489
70,467
81, 120
88, 442
85, 294
81,424
72, 844
58, 400
57, 041
58,026
65,453
20,246
26, 435
26,049
37, 385
34,929
12,630
10, 233
9,319
8,360
8,355
7,658
10,960
15, 221
14, 444
16,328
4
4
4
5
4
6
11
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
208, 695
209, 127
210,672
226, 592
226, 107
87,637
89, 136
89,648
106,407
103,910
56, 198
60,933
71,424
64, 470
62, 770
39, 169
33, 596
24, 378
30,754
34,837
8,449
8,439
8,425
8,407
8,374
17,241
17, 023
16,797
16, 553
16, 217
5
4
4
4
4
4
11
1970
1971
w
1972
1973 .
..
1974
232, 599
245,473
257,202
262,971
266, 575
105, 530
112,772
121, 944
122, 803
139,942
89,615
89,074
89, 004
88, 223
77, 199
15, 882
24, 503
26,852
31,111
26,957
10, 524
8,455
9,343
14,477
17,403
11,048
10, 670
10,059
6,357
5,074
3
3
1975
315,606
163,947
101,918
26, 831
14, 508
8,402
3
0
1974' Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June .
270, 131
269,650
273, 596
270,452
269, 550
266, 575
141, 590
141,444
145,453
140,905
142,864
139,942
25,132
26,968
26,965
26,961
26,960
26,957
26, 953
28,997
29, 044
29,027
27,916
27, 899
6,098
6,063
6,040
5,981
5,103
5,074
5,039
5,897
5,879
5,866
6,645
6,765
0
0
11
11
0
0
142, 245
142,900
143, 400
144,373
143,381
148, 122
15,596
16, 129
16,092
16, 036
17,458
17, 403
17, 346
14,952
14, 924
14, 894
14,865
14,832
3
3
2
2
268,782
272,111
272,608
273, 529
277,538
282,891
81,716
79,045
79,045
80, 570
77,165
77, 199
77, 200
79,366
79,361
79,369
84,730
85,273
286, 133
289,827
299,989
307,202
314, 886
315,606
149, 422
154, 820
158, 084
161,039
164, 216
163,947
87, 301
85, 143
90, 324
93, 387
98, 302
101,918
27, 894
27,496
29,256
29,255
29, 402
26, 831
14,794
15,506
15,476
16,687
14,548
14, 508
6,722
6,863
6,849
6,834
8,418
8,402
2
3
323,701
331,080
338,946
350,906
355,879
363,191
168,821
179,849
180,219
186,029
192,833
199,730
105, 216
101,891
109,486
115,693
111,759
112,233
26,826
25,445
25,439
25,433
26,440
26,437
14,465
14,429
14, 368
14, 336
14,302
14,263
8,373
9,466
9,434
9,414
10,545
10,529
2
1950
1951 1952
1953
1954
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov .
Dec
..
.
.
.
.....
^
. ,.
1975- Jan
Feb .
Mar
Apr
May
June
July.
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec. ..
.
3
3
3
2
3
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
1
5
0
2
0
6
3
0
11
0
0
11
0
11
11
0
11
10
0
0
11
0
11
10
10
9
Note.—All issues classified to final maturity except partially tax-exempt bonds, which were classified to earliest call
date (the last of these bonds were called on August 14,1962 for redemption on December 15,1962).
Source: Department of the Treasury.
255
CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE
TABLE B—73.—Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment, by industry, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Corporate profits with inventory valuaticn adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment
Domestic industries
Financial
Year or
quarter
Total
Total
Total
Federal
Reserve
banks
Nonfinancial
Other
Total
Manufacturing i
TransportaWhole- tion,
sale
comand
municaretail
tion,
trade
and
services 2
Rest
of the
world
Other
1946
1947...
1948
1949...
19.3
25.6
33.0
30.8
18.9
24.9
32.2
29.9
2.1
1.7
2.6
3.1
0.1
.1
.2
2.0
1.6
2.3
2.9
16.8
23.2
29.6
26.8
9.0
13.6
17.6
16.2
3.8
4.6
5.5
4.5
1.8
2.2
3.0
3.0
2.1
2.9
3.6
3.1
0.4
.7
1950. .
1951...
1952
1953. .
1954...
37.6
42.7
39.8
39.5
37.8
36.7
41.5
38.7
38.4
36.4
3.1
3.6
4.0
4.5
4.6
.2
!4
.4
.3
3.0
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.3
33.5
37.9
34.7
33.9
31.8
20.9
24.6
21.7
22.0
19.9
5.0
5.0
4.8
3.8
3.8
4.0
4.6
4.9
5.0
4.7
3.6
3.7
3.3
3.1
3.4
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.4
1955. .
1956...
1957.
1958...
1959
46.7
45.9
45.4
40.8
51.2
45.1
44.1
43.5
39.1
49.4
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.7
6.8
.3
.5
.6
.6
.7
4.5
4.5
4.6
5.1
6.0
40.3
39.1
38.3
33.5
42.6
26.0
24.7
24.0
19.4
26.2
5.0
4.5
4.4
4.6
5.9
5.6
5.9
5.8
5.9
7.0
3.6
4.1
4.0
3.6
3.5
1.6
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8
1960
1961..
1962... .
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967.
1968
1969
48.9
48.7
53.7
57.6
64.2
47.0
46.3
51.1
54.9
61.0
7.2
7.0
7.3
6.8
6.9
1.0
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
5.8
5.8
39.8
39.3
43.8
48.1
54.1
23.9
23.0
26.0
28.7
31.9
4.9
4.9
5.7
5.9
7.4
7.4
7.8
8.4
9.3
9.9
3.5
3.6
3.8
4.2
4.9
1.9
2.3
2.6
2.6
3.1
73.3
78.6
75.6
82.1
77.9
70.1
75.9
72.6
78.9
74.2
7.5
8.5
9.0
10.4
11.3
1.4
1.7
2.0
2.5
3.1
6.2
6.8
7.0
7.9
8.2
62.5
67.4
63.6
68.5
62.9
38.3
41.6
37.9
41.2
36.8
7.9
8.0
8.9
10.1
10.1
11.0
11.8
10.7
10.7
10.2
5.3
6.0
6.1
6.5
5.8
3.3
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975 P
66.4
76.9
89.6
98.6
93.6
62.6
72.4
84.7
91.7
82.5
12.6
14.1
15.4
17.4
17.3
3.6
3.3
3.4
4.5
5.7
9.0
10.8
12.1
12.9
11.5
50.1
58.2
69.3
74.3
65.3
27.1
32.4
40.6
43.8
37.4
9.4
11.7
13.3
14.4
13.4
8.2
8.3
9.0
8.5
7.0
5.3
5.8
6.4
7.6
7.5
3.8
4.6
4.8
6.8
11.0
.'s
108.3
102.4
16.2
5.7
10.5
86.2°
46.6
1973: L —
II...
111...
IV...
99.4
97.4
97.9
99.6
92.9
90.8
91.4
92.0
16.8
17.5
17.4
17.9
3.9
4.3
4.8
5.1
12.9
13.2
12.6
12.8
76.1
73.2
74.0
74.1
45.6
44.8
42.6
42.4
14.1
13.2
14.8
15.6
9.2
8.1
8.6
8.2
7.2
7.2
8.0
7.9
6.5
6.6
6.5
7.7
1974:1....
11...
III...
IV...
100.3
96.0
92.0
86.1
85.9
87.2
82.0
75.1
17.2
17.1
18.3
16.5
5.3
5.6
6.0
6.0
11.9
11.4
12.3
10.5
68.7
70.2
63.7
58.6
40.9
39.8
37.0
31.9
14.6
15.5
11.7
11.9
6.2
7.3
7.7
6.7
7.0
7.5
7.4
8.1
14.4
8.8
10.0
11.0
1975:1....
II...
III...
83.4
101.6
119.6
77.6
95.7
113.4
18.3
15.5
14.9
5.7
5.7
5.4
12.5
9.9
9.4
59.3
80.2
98.6
30.0
43.5
54.6
16 3
21.0
25.1
5.1
7.9
11.3
7.9
7.8
7.6
5.8
5.8
6.2
See footnotes at end of table.
256
5.9
TABLE B-73.—Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment^ by industry, 1946-75—Continued
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Corporate profits before deduction of capital consumption allowances, with inventory valuation adjustment
Domestic industries
Nonfinancial
Financial
Year or
quarter
Total
Total
Total
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
..
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
...
....
....
....
..
...
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Federal
Reserve
banks
Other
Total
Manufacturing^
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
Transportation,
communication,
and
serv-2
ices
Other
Rest
of the
world
24.0
31.4
40.0
38.7
23.6
30.7
39.2
37.9
2.2
1.8
2.7
3.3
0.1
.1
.2
.2
2.1
1.7
2.5
3.0
21.4
28.9
36.5
34.6
11.2
16.3
20.8
19.8
4.2
5.2
6.2
5.4
3.0
3.6
4.7
4.8
2.9
3.8
4.8
4.6
0.4
46.5
53.0
51.3
52.7
52.8
45.5
51.8
50.2
51.6
51.4
3.3
3.8
4.2
4.8
4.9
.2
.3
.4
.4
.3
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.4
4.6
42.2
48.0
46.0
46.8
46.5
24.9
29.1
26.9
28.3
27.1
6.0
6.2
6.1
5.1
5.2
6.1
7.1
7.6
8.1
8.2
5.2
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.4
64.1
64.9
66.3
62.9
74.8
62.6
63.1
64.4
61.2
73.0
5.2
5.4
5.7
6.1
7.3
.3
.5
.6
.6
.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.5
6.5
57.4
57.7
58.7
55.0
65.7
34.3
33.6
33.9
29.8
37.1
6.7
6.3
6.5
6.6
8.0
9.8
10.3
10.5
10.9
12.5
6.6
7.4
7.8
7.6
8.0
1.6
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8
74.1
75.3
84.2
90.0
98.7
72.2
72.9
81.5
87.4
95.6
7.7
8.0
7.6
7.9
7.8
1.0
.8
.9
1.0
1.2
6.8
6.9
7.1
6.6
6.7
64.4
65.3
73.6
79.8
87.7
35.5
35.2
40.2
43.9
48.0
7.3
7.4
8.4
8.7
10.4
13.3
14.0
15.4
16.8
17.9
8.4
8.8
9.6
10.4
11.4
1.9
2.3
2.6
2.6
3.1
110.8
119.3
119.7
130.2
130.9
107.5
116.5
116.7
127.0
127.2
8.5
9.6
10.2
11.8
13.0
1.4
1.7
2.0
2.5
3.1
7.2
7.9
8.2
9.3
9.9
99.0
106.9
106.5
115.1
114.2
55.9
60.5
58.7
63.9
61.5
11.1
11.5
12.7
14.3
14.9
19.6
21.3
21.0
21.9
22.4
12.3
13.6
14.1
15.0
15.4
3.3
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.7
123.0
137.8
157.4
172.0
173.3
119.2
133.3
152.6
165.2
162.3
14.5
16.3
18.0
20.6
20.8
3.6
3.4
3.4
4.5
5.7
11.0
13.0
14.7
16.1
15.0
104.7
116.9
134.6
144.6
141.5
53.1
59.8
69.9
74.2
69.7
14.7
17.5
20.2
21.7
21.2
21.4
23.2
26.3
28.3
29.4
15.5
16.4
18.3
20.4
21.2
3.8
4.6
4.8
6.8
11.0
'.S
.8
1975 v.
196.1
190.2
20.0
5.7
14.4
170.2
81.4
1973: 1
II....
III...
IV....
170.5
170.3
171.4
175.9
163.9
163.7
164.9
168.2
19.7
20.7
20.7
21.3
3.9
4.3
4.8
5.1
15.9
16.4
15.9
16.2
144.2
143.0
144.2
147.0
75.4
75.0
72.6
74.0
21.2
20.4
22.1
23.0
28.0
27.7
28.7
28.9
19.6
20.0
20.9
21.1
6.5
6.6
6.5
7.7
1974: 1
II....
III...
IV....
177.2
174.4
172.7
169.1
162.8
165.6
162.7
158.1
20.6
20.5
21.8
20.2
5.3
5.7
6.0
6.0
15.3
14.9
15.8
14.1
142.1
145.1
140.9
138.0
72.3
71.7
69.8
65.2
22.1
23.1
19.5
20.0
27.4
29.3
30.4
30.5
20.2
21.0
21.1
22.3
14.4
8.8
10.0
11.0
1975: 1
II....
III...
168.0
188.2
208.6
162.2
182.3
202.4
22.0
19.3
18.7
5.8
5.7
5.5
16.2
13.6
13.3
140.3
163.0
183.7
63.8
77.9
89.9
24.6
29.5
33.9
29.4
32.8
36.8
22.5
22.8
23.1
5.8
5.8
6.2
1 See Table B-74 for industry detail.
Services consists of electric, gas, and sanitary services.
2
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
257
5.9
TABLE B—74.—Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment, manufacturing industries, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment
Nondurable goods
Year or
quarter
Total
Food Chemmanuicals
and
facturand
ing Total kindred allied
prodproducts
ucts
Durable goods
Petroleum
and Other
coal
products
Total
Fabri- MachinPrimary cated
ery,
metal
except
metal
indus- products electrical
tries
10.0
1.9
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.8
1.9
3.7
2.8
2.4
5.8
7.5
8.1
1.6
1.5
0.8
.7
8.9
9.4
1.6
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.6
2.3
2.8
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.7
2.3
2.8
2.7
2.7
4.4
3.6
3.3
2.9
12.0
13.2
11.7
11.9
10.5
2.3
3.1
1.9
2.5
1.7
1.1
1.3
1.0
.9
.9
11.8
11.9
10.7
10.0
12.7
2.2
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.6
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.5
3.4
3.0
3.3
2.6
2.1
2.5
3.6
4.1
3.6
3.3
4.2
14.3
12.8
13.3
13.5
2.9
3.0
3.0
1.9
2.3
23.9
23.0
26.0
28.7
31.9
11.9
11.7
11.9
12.8
14.4
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.6
3.9
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.4
4.2
4.0
4.3
4.5
5.3
12.0
11.3
14.1
15.9
17.5
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
38.3
41.6
37.9
41.2
36.8
15.8
18.0
17.3
18.8
17.7
2.6
3.3
3.1
3.2
2.9
4.5
4.8
4.2
5.0
4.6
2.8
3.2
3.8
3.6
3.3
5.8
6.7
6.2
7.0
6.9
1970
1971 _ _ _ • _ .
1972
1973
1974
27.1
32.4
40.6
43.8
37.4
16.8
17.3
18.1
19.9
25.6
3.5
3.3
2.8
2.2
3.3
3.9
4.2
5.0
5.5
5.3
3.6
3.6
3.5
5.1
8.9
1975 p
9.0
1946
1947
1948
1949
13 6
17.6
16.2
1950
1951
1952...
1953
1954
20.9
24.6
21.7
22.0
19.9
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
26.0
24.7
24.0
19.4
26.2
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
6.6
7.8
8.1
11.4
9.9
10.1
ElectriMotor
cal
equip- vehicles
and
Other
ment
equipand
ment
supplies
1.2
1.3
0.7
.8
1.4
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.6
2.3
1.9
1.7
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.2
3.1
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.1
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
.9
1.0
1.7
2.1
2.0
1.4
2.1
1.1
1.2
1.5
1.3
1.7
4.1
2.2
2.6
.9
2.9
3.5
3.2
3.1
2.9
3.4
2.1
1.5
1.6
1.9
2.4
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.8
1.8
2.3
2.4
3.1
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.6
3.0
2.5
4.0
4.9
4.7
2.9
3.1
3.6
3.9
4.3
22.6
23.5
20.6
22.4
19.2
3.1
3.6
2.7
2.0
1.4
1.9
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.9
3.8
4.4
4.0
4.1
3.6
2.6
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.2
6.1
5.1
3.9
5.5
4.8
5.0
5.2
4.8
5.8
6.2
6.8
7.0
8.2
10.3
15.1
22.5
24.0
11.8
.9
.5
1.6
2.0
3.5
1.2
1.3
2.1
2.4
.9
2.7
2.7
3.9
4.5
1.8
1.1
1.8
3.0
2.7
.9
1.4
4.9
5.9
5.8
1.0
3.0
3.8
6.0
6.6
3.7
9.3
, 2.3
5 8
5.2
18.6
46 6
27.9
1973: 1... 45.6
IL. 44.8
III.. 42.6
IV._ 42.4
19.1
20.1
18.8
21.4
1.5
1.9
1.4
4.0
5.7
5.7
5.4
5.3
4.7
5.3
5.3
5.3
7.2
7.2
6.7
6.9
26.5
24.7
23.8
20.9
1.9
1.8
2.
2.
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.4
4.7
4.3
4.6
4.3
3.1
2.7
2.7
2.4
7.7
7.1
5.2
3.3
6.8
6.4
6.8
6.4
1974: 1... 40.9
II
39.8
III.. 37.0
IV.. 31.9
24.5
28.2
27.2
22.6
3.5
5.4
2.4
1.7
5.8
5.5
5.0
4.8
7.1
8.9
16.5
11.6
7.7
2.
3.
4.
4.3
1.5
1.1
12.1
8.0
8.3
7.8
8.5
L3
3.9
2.2
.2
1.1
2.0
1.1
.1
'.3
.5
.2
2.6
.6
6.4
4.0
2.7
1.6
1975: 1... 30.0
I I . . 43.5
III.. 54.6
21.1
27.5
30.1
5.9
7.1
6.9
4.4
5.9
7.5
5.2
7.0
6.0
5.6
7.5
9.8
8.9
3.9
1.7
1.4
1.5
2.7
3.4
3.4
4.7
5.8
1.2
2.2
2.5
-2.2
1.0
3.6
6.5
9.7
9.2
16.0
24.5
See footnotes at end of table.
258
2
1.1
4.9
TABLE B-74.—Corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment, manufacturing industries, 1946-75—Continued
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Corporate profits before deduction of capital consumption allowances, with inventory valuation adjustment
Nondurable goods
Year or Total
quarter manuFood
facturand
ing Total kindred
products
Durable goods
Chem- PetroElectriicals leum
Primary Fabri- Machinery
cal
and
and
metal
cated except
equipallied coal Other Total indus- metal electriment
and
prod- prodtries products
cal supplies
ucts
ucts
Motor
vehicles
and Other
equipment
2.2
2.0
2.6
2.1
3.4
2.6
4.2
3.4
3.3
6.9
9.0
9.7
1.9
1.9
1.0
.9
1.5
1.6
6.8
.9
1.6
2.3
2.2
2.2
11.1
13.9
12.7
13.2
13.1
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.7
3.2
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.6
3.2
3.9
4.1
3.3
5.1
4.4
4.1
3.8
13.7
15.3
14.2
15.0
14.1
2.8
3.6
2.6
3.5
2.9
.3
.5
.2
.2
1.9
2.6
2.7
2.3
2.2
.4
.5
.7
.6
.5
3.3
2.7
2.7
3.0
2.5
3.0
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.7
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
34.3 16.0
33.6 16.5
33.9 15.7
... 29.8 15.4
37.1 18.4
2.9
2.5
2.6
3.0
3.6
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.6
4.6
4.6
4.9
4.4
4.0
4.5
4.6
5.2
4.9
4.7
5.7
18.3
17.2
18.2
14.4
18.7
4.2
4.3
4.5
3.2
3.6
.3
.4
.5
.3
.5
2.3
2.8
2.7
2.2
2.9
1.5
1.6
2.0
1.8
2.2
4.6
2.9
3.3
1.6
3.7
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
35.5 17.8
35.2 18.0
40.2 19.1
43.9 20.5
... 48.0 22.6
3.2
3.4
3.6
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.8
5.3
5.7
4.5
4.3
4.4
4.7
5.1
5.8
5.7
6.2
6.5
7.5
17.7
17.2
21.1
23.3
25.5
3.4
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.3
.4
.5
.8
.8
2.0
2.7
2.8
3.4
3.5
4.3
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.3
4.0
3.5
5.2
6.3
6.3
4.4
4.6
5.3
5.8
6.2
1946
1947
1948
1949
11.2 7.9
16.3 9.3
... 20.8 11.8
19.8 10.1
24.9
29.1
26.9
28.3
27.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
55.9
60.5
58.7
63.9
61.5
24.4
27.2
27.1
29.3
29.2
4.0
4.9
4.7
4.9
4.8
6.5
6.8
6.3
7.3
7.1
5.8 8.1
6.3 9.2
7.2 8.9
7.3 9.9
7.1 10.2
31.4
33.3
31.6
34.6
32.3
5.1
5.7
5.0
4.5
4.0
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.0
5.2
5.8
5.7
6.0
5.7
3.4
4.0
4.0
4.1
3.7
8.0
7.5
6.4
8.1
7.5
7.2
7.4
7.4
8.7
8.5
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
53.1
59.8
69.9
74.2
69.7
29.0
30.4
32.2
34.7
41.6
5.6
5.5
5.1
4.6
5.6
6.6
7.1
8.2
8.8
8.9
7.6 9.2 24.1
7.9 9.9 29.4
8.0 10.8 37.6
9.8 11.4 39.6
14.2 12.9 28.1
3.5
3.1
4.1
4.5
5.9
2.3
2.4
3.2
3.6
2.2
5.2
5.4
6.8
7.3
5.0
2.9
3.8
5.1
5.1
3.5
3.8
7.3
8.4
8.4
3.5
6.5
7.5
9.9
10.6
8.0
.
36.2
1975 »..,_ 81.4 45.3
1973: 1...
II..
III.
IV..
75.4
75.0
72.6
74.0
33.5
34.9
33.4
36.9
3.9
4.3
3.7
6.6
9.5
8.9
8.4
8.4
8.5
10.2
10.2
10.4
11.5 42.0
11.6 40.1
11.0 39.2
11.5 37.1
4.4
4.3
4.6
4.7
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.7
7.6
7.1
7.4
7.3
5.4
5.1
5.1
4.8
10.3
9.5
7.6
6.0
10.8
10.4
10.8
10.5
1974: I...
II..
lll_
IV..
72.3
71.7
69.8
65.2
39.9
43.7
43.2
39.7
5.9
7.8
4.8
4.1
9.1
9.0
8.7
8.6
12.3
13.9
17.2
13.6
12.7
13.0
12.5
13.4
32.4
27.9
26.6
25.5
4.6
5.5
6.8
6.7
2.7
2.4
1.1
2.6
6.9
5.2
3.5
4.3
4.5
3.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
2.9
5.2
2.9
10.6
8.2
7.2
6.1
1975: !„. 63.8
IL. 77.9
III. 89.9
38.1
44.5
47.6
8.3
9.4
9.3
8.2
9.8
11.4
11.1 10.5 25.7
12.8 12.5 33.3
11.9 15.0 42.3
6.4
4.2
3.9
2.9
4.1
4.8
6.7
8.2
9.3
3.9
5.0
5.4
.2
3.7
7.7
5.6
8.2
11.3
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
259
TABLE B-75.—Sales, profits, and stockholders' equity, all manufacturing corporations, 1947-75
[Billions of dollars]
All manufacturing
corporations
Nondurable goods
industries
Durable goods industries
Profits
Profits
Stock- Sales
Stock- Sales
Stockholders'
Before After holders'
(net) Before After equity 2 (net) Before After holders'
equity
2
equity
2
income income
income income
income income
taxes i taxes
taxes i taxes
taxes i taxes
Profits
Year or
quarter
Sales
(net)
1947
1948 .
1949.
150.7
165.6
154.9
16.6
18.4
14.4
10.1
11.5
9.0
65.1
72.2
77.6
66.6
75.3
70.3
7.6
8.9
7.5
4.5
5.4
4.5
31.1
34.1
37.0
84.1
90.4
84.6
9.0
9.5
7.0
5.6
6.2
4.6
34.0
38.1
40.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
181.9
245.0
250.2
265.9
248.5
23.2
27.4
22.9
24.4
20.9
12.9
11.9
10.7
11.3
11.2
83.3
98.3
103.7
108.2
113.1
86.8
116.8
122.0
137.9
122.8
12.9
15.4
12.9
14.0
11.4
6.7
6.1
5.5
5.8
5.6
39.9
47.2
49.8
52.4
54.9
95.1
128.1
128.0
128.0
125.7
10.3
12.1
10.0
10.4
9.6
6.1
5.7
5.2
5.5
5.6
43.5
51.1
53.9
55.7
58.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
278.4
307.3
320.0
305.3
338.0
28.6
29.8
28.2
22.7
29.7
15.1
16.2
15.4
12.7
16.3
120.1
131.6
141.1
147.4
157.1
142.1
159.5
166.0
148.6
169.4
16.5
16.5
15.8
11.4
15.8
8.1
8.3
7.9
5.8
8.1
58.8
65.2
70.5
72.8
77.9
136.3
147.8
154.1
156.7
168.5
12.1
13.2
12.4
11.3
13.9
7.0
7.8
7.5
6.9
8.3
61.3
66.4
70.6
74.6
79.2
345.7
356.4
389.9
412.7
443.1
27.5
27.5
31.9
34.9
39.6
15.2
15.3
17.7
19.5
23.2
165.4
172.6
181.4
189.7
199.8
173.9
175.2
195.5
209.0
226.3
14.0
13.6
16.7
18.5
21.2
7.0
6.9
8.6
9.5
11.6
82.3
84.9
89.1
93.3
98.5
171.8
181.2
194.4
203.6
216.8
13.5
13.9
15.1
16.4
18.3
8.2
8.5
9.2
10.0
11.6
83.1
87.7
92.3
96.3
101.3
492.2
554.2
575.4
631.9
694.6
46.5
51.8
47.8
55.4
58.1
27.5
30.9
29.0
32.1
33.2
211.7
230.3
247.6
265.9
289.9
257.0
291.7
300.6
335.5
366.5
26.2
29.2
25.7
30.6
31.5
14.5
16.4
14.6
16.5
16.9
105.4
115.2
125.0
135.6
147.6
235.2
262.4
274.8
296.4
328.1
20.3
22.6
22.0
24.8
26.6
13.0
14.6
14.4
15.5
16.4
106.3
115.1
122.6
130.3
142.3
708.8
751.4
849.5
1,017.2
48.1
53.2
63.2
81.4
28.6
31.3
36.5
48.1
306.8
320.9
343.4
374.1
363.1
382.5
435.8
527.3
23.0
26.5
33.6
43.6
12.9
14.5
18.4
24.8
155.1
160.6
171.4
188.7
345.7
368.9
413.7
489.9
25.2
26.7
29.6
37.8
15.7
16.7
18.0
23.3
151.7
160.3
172.0
185.4
275.1
21.4
13.0
386.4 140.1
10.8
6.3
194.7 135.0
10.6
6.7
191.7
1960
1961
1962.
1963
1964
.
.
1965
1966
1967.
1968
1969
1970 .
1971 .
1972
1973
1973: IV
New series: 3
1974. ,
1, 060. 6
92.1
58.7
395.0 529.0
41.1
24.7
196.0 531.6
51.0
34.1
199.0
1973: IV
236.6
20.6
13.2
368.0 122.7
10.1
6.2
185.8 113.9
10.5
7.0
182.1
1974- |
II
III
IV
242.0
269.4
272.1
277.0
21.2
25.9
25.0
20.1
13.5
16.3
15.5
13.4
379.0
389-. 9
402.7
408.4
120.3
136.8
134.8
137.1
9.5
12.6
10.5
8.6
5.7
7.6
6.2
5.2
189.4
194.1
199.9
200.8
121.7
132.6
137.3
140.0
11.7
13.3
14.5
11.5
7.8
8.7
9.4
8.2
189.6
195.8
202.8
207.6
1975- |
il
Ill
247.7
266.0
272.0
15.4
20.2
21.8
9.3
12.5
13.2
411.0 121 2
420.5 132.4
427.8 130.9
6.9
9.3
9.0
4.1
5.7
5.5
201.9 126.5
207.6 133.7
210.0 141.1
8.5
10.9
12.7
5.2
6.8
7.7
209.1
213.0
217.8
1
In the old series, "income taxes" refers to Federal income taxes only, as State and local income taxes had already
been deducted. In the new series, no income taxes have been deducted.
2
gfour
,.
Annual data are average equity for the year (using
four end-of-quarter %
figures),
3
See "Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing
ing Corporations,
"
"
First
- • Quarter
- • 1974," Federal Trade Commission.
Note.—Data are not necessarily comparable from one period to another due to changes in accounting procedures,
industry classifications, sampling procedures, etc. For explanatory notes concerning compilation of the series, see "Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing Corporations," Federal Trade Commission.
Source: Federal Trade Commission.
260
TABLE B-76.—Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders* equity and to sales, all manufacturing corporations, 1947-75
Ratio of profits after
income taxes (annual rate)
to stockholders' equity—percent »
Profits after income taxes
per dollar of sales—cents
Year or quarter
All
manufacturing
corporations
Durable
goods
industries
Nondurable
goods
industries
All
manufacturing
corporations
Durable
goods
industries
Nondurable
goods
industries
1947
1948
1949
15.6
16.0
11.6
14.4
15.7
12.1
16.6
16.2
11.2
6.7
7.0
5.8
6.7
7.1
6.4
6.7
6.8
5.4
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
15.4
12.1
10.3
10.5
9.9
16.9
13.0
11.1
11.1
10.3
14.1
11.2
9.7
9.9
9.6
7.1
4.8
4.3
4.3
4.5
7.7
5.3
4.5
4.2
4.6
6.5
4.5
4.1
4.3
4.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
12.6
12.3
10.9
8.6
10.4
13.8
12.8
11.3
8.0
10.4
11.4
11.8
10.6
9.2
10.4
5.4
5.3
4.8
4.2
4.8
5.7
5.2
4.8
3.9
4.8
5.1
5.3
4.9
4.4
4.9
9.2
8.9
9.8
10.3
11.6
8.58.1
9.6
10.1
11.7
9.8
9.6
9.9
10.4
11.5
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.7
5.2
4.0
3.9
4.4
4.5
5.1
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.9
5.4
13.0
13.4
11.7
12.1
11.5
13.8
14.2
11.7
12.2
11.4
12.2
12.7
11.8
11.9
11.5
5.6
5.6
5.0
5.1
4.8
5.7
5.6
4.8
4.9
4.6
5.5
5.6
5.3
5.2
5.0
9.3
9.7
10.6
12.8
8.3
9.0
10.8
13.1
10.3
10.3
10.5
12.6
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.7
3.5
3.8
4.2
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.8
13.4
12.9
14.0
4.7
4.5
5.0
14.9
12.6
17.1
5.5
4.7
6.4
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
..
.
.
. . . .
1973: IV
New series: a
1974
1973- IV
14.3
13.3
15.3
5.6
5.0
6.1
1974: 1
II
Ill
IV
14.3
16.7
15.4
13.2
12.1
15.6
12.3
10.4
16.4
17.8
18.5
15.8
5.6
6.0
5.7
4.8
4.8
5.5
4.6
3.8
6.4
6.6
6.8
5.9
1975' 1
II
Ill
9.0
11.9
12.4
8.0
10.9
10.5
10.0
12.8
14.2
3.7
4.7
4.9
3.3
4.3
4.2
4.1
5.1
5.5
1 Annual ratios based on average equity for the year (using four end-of-quarter figures). Quarterly ratios based on equity
at end of quarter only.
2 see "Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing Corporations, First Quarter 1974," Federal Trade Commission.
Note.—Based on data in millions of dollars.
See also Note, Table B-75.
Source: Federal Trade Commission.
261
TABLE B-77.—Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales', all manufacturing corporations^ by industry group, 1974-75
Ratio of profits after income
taxes (annual rate) to stockholders' equity— percent1
Profits after income taxes per
dollar of sales—cents
Industry
1974
All manufacturing corporations
Durable goods industries
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals . .
Food and kindred products. .
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Industrial chemicals and synthetics
Drugs
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics
products
Other nondurable manufacturing
products
1
i
II
9.0
11.9
12.4
5.7
4.8
3.7
4.7
4.9
8.0
10.9
10.5
4.6
3.8
3.3
4.3
4.2
14.7
6.3
5.8
7.6
2.7
5.5
-.2
5.7
3.6
4.3
6.1
3.3
8.3
3.3
7.6
7.6
6.2
4.2
6.1
4.7
4.6
3.7
4.0
2.1
5.0
5.6
3.4
1.7
3.8
5.3
2.7
2.6
3.4
5.9
2.9
.4
4.5
6.4
3.3
3.1
4.7
6.2
2.9
2.5
2.1
13.2
12.3
10.4
15.1
19.2
13.4
11.9
16.7
14.6
-.4
7.8
8.6
10.7
12.6
13.3
12.2
7.9
1.2
8.2
8.0
2.8
8.1 -1.4
9.4
8.2
9.6
16.4
13.0
2.5
8.4
8.4
10.0
5.9
14.4
14.2
9.2
9.6
14.7
13.1
8.3
7.3
III
1.1
2.8
-.6
2.9
11.9
11.6
2.8
2.2
2.6
3.1
3.2
11.9
14.9
8.6
9.1
7.9
6.8
8.4
3.5
8.2
5.5
10.0
11.0
3.3
1.1
.9
3.3
18.5
15.8
10.0
12.8
14.2
6.8
5.9
4.1
5.1
5.5
15.4
15.9
14.7
15.5
10.7
14.1
-2.7
10.8
15.0
15.9
17.2
18.4
3.2
9.0
2.1
7.6
4.7
8.4
3.0
2.4
7.8
8.4
1.1 -1.2
6.1
5.0
4.6
3.4
7.0
7.1
3.3
9.5
.6
5.6
4.7
8.1
3.7
6.6
3.6
3.3
1.7
8.1
14.2
12.3
13.2
16.2
12.6
13.5
15.6
12.6
15.9
10.9
18.6
13.3
18.6
13.7
18.4
12.2
10.3
23.3
20.5
10.2
11.8
13.3
13.9
12.0
14.3
11.6
19.9
13.0
19.0
15.0
13.5
14.8
19.6
19.0
14.2
9.0
9.9
Ratios based on equity at end of quarter.
Source: Federal Trade Commission.
IV
15.4
Instruments and related products.. 15.4
Other durable manufacturing products
11.3
Nondurable goods industries
III
1
21.2
16.3
1975
III
IV
6.4
1974
II
III
Fabricated metal products
17.6
Machinery, except electrical.. . . 12.3
Electrical and electronic equipment. 9.9
Transportation equipment
4.7
Motor vehicles and equipmentAircraft, guided missiles, and
parts
1975
262
3.6
4.1
7.9
11.5
9.4
15.6
8.8
6.3
5.7
12.6
7.0
12.8
11.1
2.6
5.5
4.9
7.4
6.9
12.4
6.3
7.3
7.9
4.8
4.1
1.5
3.0
3.5
2.9
2.1
1.0
2.5
3.3
TABLE B-78.—Sources and uses of funds, nonfarm nonfnancial corporate business, 1946-75
[Billions of dollars]
Sources
Uses
External
Period
Total
Credit market funds
Internal 1
Total
Total
Longterm 2
Shortterm 3
3.3
3.1
assets *
financial
assets
of
cal
in
-^l!8
17.9
17.2
20.2
15.2
-1.4
8.4
5.0
3.5
1.8
1.4
3.0
.9
3.4
4.1
1.4
-.3
-.3
3.8
5.4
1.7
.0
4.6
15.9
5.6
-1.3
.5
-.8
13.0
2.5
-.4
1.2
7.5
40.4
37.2
28.9
26.8
26.4
47.8
39.7
38.7
37.8
50.8
24.0
29.8
24.3
24.5
21.5
31.3
35.7
34.5
27.0
36.7
16.4
7.4
4.6
2.3
4.9
16.5
4.0
4.2
10.8
14.2
.7
-1.7
7.5
10.8
9.5
8.2
8.8
9.2
15.7
21.6
18.4
20.0
4.5
1.5
2.9
3.9
5.6
11.2
9.6
8.0
13.2
18.9
1.0
6.7
4.9
9.0
7.4
14.4
10.9
3.0
20.4
18.5
41.4
49.5
54.7
59.3
65.0
82.5
89.1
88.2
104.0
112.1
38.7
36.3
43.6
45.2
51.6
62.3
76.5
71.4
75.0
83.7
2.7
13.2
11.1
14.2
13.4
20.2
12.6
16.8
29.0
28.4
6.0
5.0
4.5
5.6
7.4
8.9
8.2
5.8
9.6
6.0
30.7
41.8
39.3
34.5
36.3
8.8
5.0
16.0
32.7
40.8
4.8
5.7
14.0
24.5
24.7
97.0
110.3
133.3
162.4
169.7
84.0
87.2
102.5
121.5
125.9
12.9
23.1
30.8
40.9
43.8
6.7
10.2
14.8
13.8
13.6
7.8
12.6
18.7
19.1
10.5
14.4
9.6
.6
6.8
8.6
6.3
3.2
3.4
5.5
6.4
5.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
41.1
35.5
29.1
27.2
28.8
52.5
44.3
42.2
41.2
55.1
17.9
19.9
21.2
21.1
23.3
29.2
28.9
30.6
29.5
35.0
23.2
15.6
7.9
6.1
5.5
23.3
15.4
11.6
11.7
20.1
7.2
10.0
9.2
5.6
6.3
10.3
12.9
12.0
10.6
12.6
3.8
5.9
7.8
5.9
6.6
6.5
7.5
10.3
10.5
8.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
47.4
54.5
59.2
65.0
72.4
91.3
97.3
94.0
113.6
118.1
34.4
35.6
41.8
43.9
50.5
56.6
61.2
61.5
61.7
60.7
12.9
19.0
17.4
21.1
21.9
34.8
36.1
32.5
51.9
57.4
11.9
12.3
12.5
12.1
14.5
20.4
25.3
29.6
31.5
38.9
103.7
120.4
148.0
176.2
183.3
59.4
68.0
78.7
84.6
81.5
44.2
52.5
69.3
91.6
101.8
39.5
46.8
55.3
67.2
77.1
.
physi-
Discrepancy
(sources
less
uses)
16.5
25.5
25.2
18.7
18.3
27.0
28.2
19.6
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Increase
3.7
5.8
3.3
-2.7
1946
1947
1948
1949
. .
Total
Other
Purchase
!4
2.5
4.6
4.6
3.5
3.4
4.3
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1974: 1
II
Ill .
IV
196.3
210.3
176.4
150.1
85.3
80.5
75.3
84.8
111.0
129.8
101.1
65.3
75.4
91.6
72.8
68.7
37.5
43.1
25.2
39.3
38.0
48.7
47.4
29.4
35.6
38.2
28.3
-3.4
189.7
195.1
160.2
133.5
124.3
127.8
122.4
129.2
65.4
67.3
37.8
4.3
6.7
15.3
16.2
16.6
1975: 1
II
Ill
90.1
129.8
150.3
90.1
98.2
109.7
.0
31.6
40.6
27.2
29.3
29.8
52.0
52.9
39.6
-24.9
-23.7
-9.7
-27.1
2.4
10.7
76.1
114.5
133.7
95.1
77.8
102.5
-19.0
36.7
31.2
14.0
15.3
16.5
i Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation adjustment) and capital consumption allowances.
> Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.
* Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances, and Government loans.
* Plant and equipment, residential structures, and inventory investment.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
263
TABLE B-79.— Current assets and liabilities of U.S. corporations, 1939-75
[Billions of dollars]
Current assets
End of year
or quarter
Cash
on
Total
hand
U.S.
Govern-
and
ment
in 1 securi-
banks '
ties 2
Current liabilities
Ad-
Receivables
from
U.S.
Govern-
ment3
and
ac-
counts
receivable
Inventories
and
prepay-
Notes
ments,
counts
Other
current
as-
Total
U.S.
Govern-
sets <
Net
Fed-
vances
Notes
and
ac-
Payable
eral
in-
come
Other
work-
cur-
capi-
rent
tax
lia-
liabilities
bilities
ing
tal
ment 3
All corporations s
54.5 10.8
2.2
22.1
18.0
1.4
30.0
21.9
1.2
6.9
24.5
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
60.3
72.9
83.6
93.8
97.2
97.4
108.1
123.6
133.0
133.1
13.1
13.9
17.6
21.6
21.6
21.7
22.8
25.0
25.3
26.5
2.0
4.0
10.1
16.4
20.9
21.1
15.3
14.1
14.8
16.8
23.9
0.1
.6
27.4
4.0
23.3
5.0
21.9
21.8
4.7
2.7
23.2
.7
30.0
38 .3
42 .4
43 .0
19.8
25.6
27.3
27.6
26.8
26.3
37.6
44.6
48.9
45.3
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
2.4
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.4
32.8
40.7
47.3
51.6
51.7
45.8
51.9
61.5
64.4
60.7
0.6
22.6
.8
25.6
2.0
24.0
2.2
24.1
L8
25.0
.9
24.8
.1
31.5
37 .6
39 .3
37 .5
2.5
7.1
12.6
16.6
15.5
10.4
8.5
10.7
11.5
9.3
7.1
7.2
8.7
8.7
9.4
9.7
11.8
13.2
13.5
14.0
27.5
32.3
36.3
42.1
45.6
51.6
56.2
62.1
68.6
72.4
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955 . .
1956
1957
1958 .
1959
161.5
179.1
186.2
190.6
194.6
224.0
237.9
244.7
255.3
277.3
28.1
30.0
30.8
31.1
33.4
34.6
34.8
34.9
37.4
36.3
19.7
20.7
19.9
21.5
19.2
23.5
19.1
18.6
18.8
22.8
1.1
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
55.7
58.8
64.6
65.9
71.2
86.6
95.1
99.4
106.9
117.7
55.1
64.9
65.8
67.2
65.3
72.8
80.4
82.2
81.9
88.4
1.7
2.1
2.4
2.4
3.1
4.2
5.9
6.7
7.5
9.1
79.8
92.6
96.1
98.9
99.7
121.0
130.5
133.1
136.6
153.1
.4
1.3
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.3
1.7
1.7
47.9
53.6
57.0
57.3
59.3
73.8
81.5
84.3
88.7
99.3
16.7
21.3
18.1
18.7
15.5
19.3
17.6
15.4
12.9
15.0
14.9
16.5
18.7
20.7
22.5
25.7
29.0
31.1
33.3
37.0
81.6
86.5
90.1
91.8
94.9
103.0
107.4
111.6
118.7
124.2
1960
1961
289.0
306.8
37.2
41.1
20.1
20.0
3.1
3.4
126.1
135.8
91.8
95.2
10.6 160.4
11.4 171.2
1.8
1.8
105.0
112.8
13.5
14.1
40.1
42.5
128.6
135.6
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
254.7
269.7
288.2
305.6
336.0
364.0
386.2
426.5
473.6
34.8
37.1
39.8
40.5
42.8
41.9
45.5
48.2
47.9
16.5
16.8
16.7
15.8
14.4
13.0
10.3
11.5
10.6
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.9
4.5
5.1
5.1
4.8
94.5
99.5
106.9
116.5
130.2
142.1
150.2
168.8
192.2
95.0
100.5
106.8
113.1
126.6
142.8
153.1
166.0
186.4
10.5
12.1
14.4
16.3
18.1
19.7
22.0
26.9
31.6
123.7
132.4
145.5
156.6
178.8
199.4
211.3
244.1
1.8
2.0
2.5
2.7
3.1
4.4
5.8
6.4
7.3
82.6
86.7
94.5
102.2
118.4
133.1
141.3
162.4
191.9
13.3
14.3
15.7
16.2
18.3
17.4
13.2
14.3
12.6
26.0
29.4
32.8
35.5
39.0
44.5
51.0
61.0
76.0
131.0
137.3
142.7
149.0
157.2
164.6
174.9
182.4
185.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
492.3
529.6
573.5
643.3
50.2
53.3
57.5
61.6
62.7
7.7
11.0
9.3
11.0
11.7
4.2
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.5
201.9 193.3
217.6 200.4
240.0 215.2
266.1 246.7
304.9
326.0
352.2
6.6
4.9
4.0
4.3
5.2
204.7
230.4
289.7 288.0
35.0
43.8
48.1
54.4
56.6
287.5
10.0 83.6
13.1 92.4
15.1 102.6
18.1 117.0
23.2 134.8
1974: 1
II
III
IV
666.2
685.4
708.6
59.4
58.8
60.3
712.2 62.7
12.1
10.7
11.0
11.7
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.5
276.2
289.8
295.5
289.7
56.9
53.5
56.1
56.6
416.0
431.5
449.1
266.5
278.5
287.0
287.5
20.6
19.0
22.7
23.2
124.4
129.1
134.3
134.8
250.2
253.9
259.5
450.6
4.5
4.7
5.1
5.2
1975: 1
II
III.
698.4
703.2
60.6
63.7
716.5 65.6
12.1
12.7
14.3
3.2
3.3
3.3
281.9 285.2
284.8 281.4
55.4 438.0
57.3 434.2
59.0 444.7
5.3
5.8
6.2
271.2
270.1
21.8 139.8
17.7 140.6
19.4 145.6
260.4
269.0
1939
.
.
Nonfinancial corporations*
712.2
-
258.4
269.2
282.1
288.0
294.7 279.6
287.8
401.0
450.6
215.6
261.6
273.4
187.4
203.6
221.3
242.3
261.5
261.5
271.8
i Includes time certificates of deposit.
' Includes Federal agency issues.
3 Receivables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not include amounts offset against each other on corporations'books or amounts arisingfrom subcontracting which a re not directly due from or to the U.S. Government. Wherever
possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Government advances offset against inventories on corporations'
books.
* I ncludes marketable investments (other than Government securities and time certificates of deposit) as well as sundry
current assets.
* Excludes banks, savings and loan associations, and insurance companies.
« Excludes banks, sayings and loan associations, insurance companies, investment companies, finance companies
(personal and commercial), real estate companies, and security and commodity brokers, dealers, and exchanges.
Note—Year-end data through 1971 are based on "Statistics of Income" (Department of the Treasury), covering virtually
all corporations in the United States. "Statistics of Income" data may not be strictly comparable from year to year because
of changes in the tax laws, basis for filing returns, and processing of data for compilation purposes. All other figures shown
are estimates based on data compiled from many different sources, including data on corporations registered with the
Securities and Exchange Commission.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
264
TABLE B-80.—State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-75
[Millions of dollars]
Corporate securities offered for cash
Year or quarter
State and
municipal
securities
offered
for cash
(principal
amounts)
1934
939
Industry of corporate issuer
Type of corporate security
Total
corporate
offerings
397
Common
stock
19
Preferred
stock
6
Bonds
and
notes
Manufacturing!
Electric,
gas
and
water J
Transportation '
176
371
67
133
1,271
Communication
Other
21
1939
1,128
2,164
87
98
1,980
604
186
103
1940
1941
1942 . .
1943
1944
1,238
956
524
435
661
2,677
2,667
1,062
1,170
3,202
108
110
34
56
163
183
167
112
124
369
2,386
2,390
917
990
2,669
992
848
539
510
1,061
1,203
1,357
472
477
1,422
324
366
48
161
609
159
96
4
21
109
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949 . .
795
1,157
2,324
2,690
2,907
6,011
6,900
6,577
7,078
6,052
397
891
779
614
736
758
1,127
762
492
425
4,855
4,882
5,036
5,973
4,890
2,026
3,701
2,742
2,226
1,414
2,319
2,158
3,257
2,187
2,320
1,454
711
286
755
800
902
571
211
329
293
1,008
946
1950 .
1951
1952
1953 .
1954
3,532
3,189
4,401
5,558
6,969
6,361
7,741
9,534
8,898
9,516
811
1,212
1,369
1,326
1,213
631
838
564
489
816
4,920
5,691
7,601
7,083
7,488
1,200
3,122
4,039
2,254
2,268
2,649
2,455
2,675
3,029
3,713
813
494
992
595
778
399
612
760
882
720
1,300
1,058
1,068
2,138
2,037
1955
1956
1957 .
1958
1959
5,977
5,446
6,958
7,449
7,681
10,240
10, 939
12,884
11,558
9,748
2,185
2,301
2,516
1,334
2,027
635
636
411
571
531
7,420
8,002
9,957
9,653
7,190
2,994
3,647
4,234
3,515
2,073
2,464
2,529
3,938
3,804
3,258
893
724
824
824
967
1,132
1,419
1,462
1,424
717
2,757
2,619
2,426
1,991
2,733
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
7,230
8,360
8,558
10, 107
10, 544
10,154
13, 165
10, 705
12,211
13, 957
1,664
3,294
1,314
1,011
2,679
409
450
422
343
412
8,081
9,420
8,969
10,856
10,865
2,152
4,077
3,249
3,514
3,046
2,851
3,032
2,825
2,677
2,760
718
694
567
957
982
1,050
1,834
1,303
1,105
2,189
3,383
3,527
2,761
3,957
4,980
1965 . . _ .
1966
1967
1968
1969
11,148
11,089
14,288
16, 374
11,460
14, 782
17, 385
24, 014
21,261
25,997
1,473
1,901
1,927
3,885
7,640
724
580
881
636
691
12, 585
14, 904
21, 206
16, 740
17, 666
5,414
7,056
11,069
6,958
6,346
2,934
3,666
4,935
5,293
6,715
702
1,494
1,639
1,564
1,779
945
2,003
1,975
1,775
2,172
4,787
3,167
4,396
5,671
8,985
1970...
1971
1972
1973
1974
17, 762
24, 370
22,941
22, 953
22, 824
37, 451
43,378
39, 746
31,722
37, 768
7,037
9,540
10,719
7,647
4,017
1,390
3,682
3,340
3,341
2,254
29, 023
30, 156
25, 687
20,734
31, 497
10, 647
11,624
6,402
4,837
10, 411
11,009
11,746
11,314
10, 270
12, 835
1,253
1,255
899
845
1,004
5,291
5,815
4,835
4,867
3,928
9,252
12,937
16,296
10, 902
9,589
6,350
6,441
4,062
5,971
9,232
9,211
7,534
11,797
958
1,001
824
1,236
818
533
461
441
7,455
7,676
6,248
10, 119
1,926
2,541
1,888
4,055
3,569
3,189
2,376
3,702
157
70
122
656
873
1,312
1,007
742
2,708
2,100
2,142
2,640
6,525
7,797
8,238
15, 123
15, 295
9,296
1,447
2,657
1,421
662
923
635
13, 014
11,715
7,240
6,055
6,529
2,530
4,733
4,405
3,322
85
524
288
1,379
1,338
678
2,871
2,500
2,479
..
1974: 1
II
Ill
IV
1975: 1
II
Ill .
i Prior to 1948, also includes extractive, radiobroadcasting, airline companies, commercial, and miscellaneous company
issues.
» Prior to 1948, also includes telephone, street railway, and bus company issues.
3 Prior to 1948, includes railroad issues only.
Note.—Covers substantially all new issues of State, municipal, and corporate securities offered for cash sale in the United
States in amounts over $100,000 and with terms to maturity of more than 1 year; excludes notes issued exclusively to
commercial banks, intercorporate transactions, and issues to be sold over an extended period, such as employee-purchase
plans. Closed-end investment company issues are included from 1971 forward.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Corrmission, "The Corr.rrercial and Financial Chronicle," and "The Bond Buyer."
265
TABLE B-81.—Common stock pricest earningst and yields', and stock market credit, 1949-75
Margin credit at brokers and banks
(end of period) «
Standard & Poor's common stock data
Price indexes 1
Regulated «
Year or month
Total
(500
stocks)
Industrials
(425
stocks)
RailPublic
utilities roads
(55
(20
stocks) stocks)
Dividend
yield
(percent)3
Price/
earnings
ratios
Total
1941-43=10
Brokers
Banks
Unregulated;
nonmargin
stock
credit
at
banks •
Millions of dollars
15.23
15.00
17.87
12.83
6.59
6.49
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
19
18.40
22.34
24.50
24.73
29.69
40.49
46.62
44.38
46.24
57.38
18.33
22.68
24.78
24.84
30.25
42.40
49.80
47.63
49.36
61.45
19.96
20.59
22.86
24.03
27.57
31.37
32.25
32.19
37.22
44.15
15.53
19.91
22.49
22.60
23.96
32.94
33.65
28.11
27.05
35.09
6.57
6.13
5.80
5.80
4.95
4.08
4.09
4.35
3.97
3.23
7.15
8.57
10.57
9.77
11.75
12.59
13.25
12.73
16.33
17.32
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
55.85
66.27
62.38
69.87
81.37
88.17
85.26
91.93
98.70
97.84
59.43
69.99
65.54
73.39
86.19
93.48
91.08
99.18
107.49
107. 13
46.86
60.20
59.16
64.99
69.91
76.08
68.21
68.10
66.42
62.64
30.31
32.83
30.56
37.58
45.46
46.78
46.34
46.72
48.84
45.95
3.47
2.98
3.37
3.17
3.01
3.00
3.40
3.20
3.07
3.24
16.98
21.68
17.39
18.20
18.81
17.92
15.15
17.48
17.66
16.48
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
83.22
98.29
109. 20
107.43
82.85
86.16
91.29
108.35
121.79
120. 44
92.91
96.56
54.48
59.33
56.90
53.47
38.91
41.17
32.13
41.94
44.11
38.01
37.53
37.48
3.83
3.14
2.84
3.06
4.47
4.31
15.69
18.50
18.20
14.22
8.94
6,535
9,045
6,382
4,836
5,700
8,180
5,251
3,980
835
865
1,131
856
1,866
2,064
96.11
93.45
97.44
92.46
89.67
89.79
107.18
104.13
108.98
103.66
101. 17
101.62
48.60
48.13
47.90
44.03
39.35
37.46
44.37
41.85
42.80
40.26
37.04
37.31
3.64
3.81
3.65
3.86
4.00
4.02
11.24
6,343
6,462
6,527
6,567
6,380
6,297
5,323
5,423
5,519
5,558
5,360
5,260
1,020
,039
,008
,009
,020
,037
1,845
1,843
1,869
1,868
1,858
2,072
82.82
76.03
68.12
69.44
71.74
67.07
93.54
85.51
76.54
77.57
80.17
74.80
35.37
34.00
30.93
33.80
34.45
32.85
35.63
35.06
31.55
33.70
35.95
34.81
4.42
4.90
5.45
5.38
5.13
5.43
6.97
5,948
5,625
5,097
4,996
4,994
4,836
,925
,672
,173
,080
,103
,980
1,023
953
924
916
891
856
2,091
2,119
2,060
2,024
2,053
2,064
72.56
80.10
83.78
84.72
90.10
92.40
80.50
89.29
93.90
95.27
101. 56
103. 68
38.19
40.37
39.55
38.19
39.69
43.67
37.31
37.80
38.35
38.55
38.90
38.94
5.07
4.61
4.42
4.34
4.08
4.02
9.90
4,934
5,099
5,164
5,327
5,666
,086
,269
,320
,503
,847
5,140
848
830
844
824
819
,919
,897
,882
,885
,883
92.49
85.71
84.67
88.57
90.07
88.70
103.84
96.21
94.96
99.29
100. 86
99.31
43.67
40.61
40.53
42.59
43.77
43.25
38.04
35.13
34.93
36.92
37.81
37.07
4.02
4.36
4.39
4.22
4.07
4.14
1949
„
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May .
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
. -.
1975- Jan
Feb
-
Apr
_..
Mar
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
9.84
7.71
12.08
11.04
5,446
5,365
5,399
5,448
5,519
» Monthly data are averages of daily figures and annual data are averages of monthly figures.
> Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by aggregate market value based on Wednesday closing prices. Monthly data are averages of weekly figures; annual data are averages of monthly figures.
a Ratio of price index for last day of quarter to quarterly earnings (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Annual ratios are
averages of quarterly data.
< Margin credit includes all credit extended to purchase or carry stocks or related equity instruments and secured at
least in part by stock. Credit extended by brokers is end-of-month data for member firms of the New York Stock Exchange. June data for banks are universe totals; all other data for banks represent estimates for all commercial banks,
which accounted for 60 percent of security credit outstanding at banks on June 30,1971.
• In addition to assigning a current loan value to margin stock generally, Regulations T and U permit special loan values
for convertible bonds and stock acquired through exercise of subscription rights.
• Nonmargin stocks are those not listed on a national securities exchange and not included in the Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System's list of over-the-counter margin stocks. At banks, loans to purchase or carry nonmargin
stocks are unregulated; at brokers, such stocks have no loan value.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, New York Stock Exchange, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
266
TABLE B-82.—Business formation and business failures, 1929-75
Business failures *
Year or month
1929
19333
19393
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946 .
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960 .
1961...
1962
1963
1964.
1965. .
1966
1967
1968.
1969
1970...
1971
1972.
1973. .
1974
1975
.
..
.
.
Index
of net
business
formation
(1967—100)
New
business
incorporations
(number)
132,916
112,897
112.6
96,346
87.8
85,640
93.1
93, 092
93.3
83,778
98.2
92,946
94.4
102, 706
91.3
117,411
139, 915
99.1
95.2
141,163
90.4
137,112
89.5
150,781
96.8
193,067
92.4
182, 713
88.3
181, 535
90.7
182,057
93.3
186,404
97.2
197, 724
98.6
203,897
98.2
200, 010
100.0
206,569
109.8
233,635
116.2
274,267
108.0
264, 209
287, 577
111.0
-117.9
316,601
117.9
329,358
112.4
319, 149
4108.3 ^299,279
Number of failures
Business
failure
rate 2
Amount of current
liabilities (millions
of dollars)
Liability size
class
Total
Under
$100,00
$100,00
and
over
103.9
100 3
69.6
63.0
54.4
44.6
16.4
6.5
4.2
5.2
14.3
20.4
34.4
34.3
30.7
28.7
33.2
42.0
41.6
48.0
51.7
55.9
51.8
57.0
64.4
60.8
56.3
53.2
53.3
51.6
49.0
38.6
37.3
43.8
41.7
38.3
36.4
38.4
22,909
19,859
14,768
13,619
11,848
9,405
3,221
1,222
809
1,129
3,474
5,250
9,246
9,162
8,058
7,611
8,862
11,086
10,969
12,686
13, 739
14,964
14,053
15,445
17,075
15,782
14,374
13, 501
13,514
13,061
12,364
9,636
9,154
10, 748
10,326
9,566
9,345
9,915
22, 165
18,880
14,541
13,400
11,685
9,282
3,155
1,176
759
1,003
3,103
4,853
8,708
8,746
7,626
7,081
8,075
10,226
10,113
11,615
12, 547
13, 499
12, 707
13,650
15,006
13, 772
12, 192
11,346
11,340
10,833
10, 144
7,829
7,192
8,019
7,611
7,040
6,627
6,733
744
979
227
219
163
123
66
46
50
126
371
397
538
416
432
530
787
860
856
1,071
1,192
1,465
1,346
1,795
2,069
2,010
2,182
2,155
2,174
2,228
2,220
1,807
1,962
2,729
2,715
2,526
2,718
3,182
35.5
37.5
40.8
34.1
39.7
37.0
37.7
33.4
45.2
47.0
36.3
37.0
46.8
44.9
46.3
49.1
43.4
36.5
41.9
41.4
42.2
44.9
795
797
971
802
925
789
782
709
839
993
785
728
1,080
963
1,145
1,202
1,045
805
904
891
853
987
505
559
686
606
619
521
522
474
559
634
544
503
677
628
774
756
728
572
553
608
559
645
290
238
285
196
306
268
260
235
280
359
241
225
403
335
371
446
317
233
351
283
294
342
Liability size
class
Total
Under
$100,00
$100,000
and
over
483.3
457.5
182.5
166.7
136.1
100.8
45.3
31.7
30.2
67.3
204.6
234.6
308.1
248.3
259.5
283.3
394.2
462.6
449.4
562.7
615.3
728.3
692.8
938.6
1,090.1
1,213.6
1,352.6
1,329.2
1,321.7
1,385.7
1,265.2
941.0
1, 142. 1
1,887.8
1,916.9
2,000.2
2,298.6
3, 053. 1
261.5
215.5
132.9
119.9
100.7
80.3
30.2
14.5
11.4
15.7
63.7
93.9
161.4
151.2
131.6
131.9
167.5
211.4
206.4
239.8
267.1
297.6
278.9
327.2
370.1
346.5
321.0
313.6
321.7
321.5
297.9
241.1
231.3
269.3
271.3
258.8
235.6
256.9
221.8
242.0
49.7
46.8
35.4
20.5
15.1
17.1
18.8
51.6
140.9
140.7
146.7
97.1
128.0
151.4
226.6
251.2
243.0
322.9
348.2
430.7
413.9
611.4
720.0
867.1
1,031.6
1,015.6
1,000.0
1,064.1
967.3
699.9
910.8
1,618.4
1,645.6
1,741.5
2,063.0
2,796.3
337.3
213.1
204.6
209.8
375.7
215.5
153.4
232.7
217.0
306.8
344.7
242.6
391.1
384.8
343.3
372.1
357.8
175.9
242.0
222.4
205.5
1,295.4
19.3
22.2
25.5
22.1
23.6
19.8
19.8
18.1
22.5
23.9
21.8
18.3
25.5
25.0
30.2
29.9
29.2
22.5
21.7
23.1
22.7
25.4
317.9
191.0
179.1
187.7
352.1
195.7
133.6
214.6
194.5
282.9
322.9
224.3
365.7
359.8
313.2
342.2
328.6
153.4
220.4
199.3
182.8
1,270.0
Seasonally adjusted
1974: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr.
May
June.
July
Aug...
Sept
Oct
Nov.
Dec
1975: Jan.
Feb
Mar
Apr .
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov.
113.3
113.0
113.9
115.9
116.3
115.7
118.6
114.6
111.1
105.2
105.1
106,3
102.9
101.7
103.0
103.4
104.8
110.7
113.7
112.6
113.1
"111.8
"113.9
26,511
27, 056
26, 458
29, 071
27, 562
25, 785
27, 790
26,495
26, 313
25, 404
25, 555
25, 003
24, 406
24, 298
24,922
26, 506
26, 634
26,843
28,896
28, 708
29,365
29, 517
29, 184
1
Commercial and industrial failures only. Excludes failures of banks and railroads and, beginning 1933, of real estate,
insurance, holding, and financial companies, steamship lines, travel agencies, etc.
* Failure rate per 10,000 listed enterprises.
* Series revised; not strictly comparable with earlier data.
* Preliminary; based on seasonally adjusted data through November.
s Excluding W. T. Grant, current liabilities were $264.9 billion.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
267
AGRICULTURE
TABLE B-83.—Income of farm people and farmers, 1929-75
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income received from farming
Personal income
received by total
farm population
Year or
quarter
Net to farm
operators
Realized gross
ProducCash tion ex- Exclud- IncludFrom
From
penses ing net ing net
From
receipts
farm l noninven- invenall
Total 3 from
farm
sources sources sources 2
markettory
tory
ings
change change*
Billions of dollars
Current
dollars
1967
dollars «
Dollars
2.6
2.8
3.3
3.9
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.6
5.3
5.8
6.2
13.9
7.1
10.6
11.1
13.9
18.8
23.4
24.4
25.8
29.5
34.1
34.7
31.6
11.3
5.3
7.9
8.4
11.1
15.6
19.6
20.5
21.7
24.8
29.6
30.2
27.8
7.7
4.4
6.3
6.9
7.8
10.0
11.6
12.3
13.1
14.5
17.0
18.8
18.0
6.3
2.7
4.3
4.2
6.1
8.8
11.8
12.1
12.8
15.0
17.1
15.9
13.6
6.2
2.6
4.4
4.5
6.5
9.9
11.7
11.7
12.3
15.1
15.4
17.7
12.8
945
379
685
706
1,031
1,588
1,927
1,950
2,063
2,543
2,615
3,044
2,233
1,969
1,115
1,851
1,858
2,578
3,452
3,706
3,611
3,619
4,037
3,534
3,903
2,977
14.1
16.1
15.3
13.3
12.4
11.2
11.1
10.8
12.5
10.4
6.3
6.5
6.7
6.4
5.9
6.2
6.6
6.6
6.7
7.1
32.3
37.1
36.8
35.1
33.7
33.3
34.4
34.2
38.1
37.9
28.5
32.9
32.5
31.0
29.8
29.5
30.4
29.7
33.5
33.6
19.5
22.3
22.8
21.5
21.8
22.2
22.7
23.7
25.8
27.2
12.8
14.8
14.0
13.6
11.9
11.1
11.7
10.5
12.3
10.7
13.6
15.9
15.0
13.0
12.4
11.3
11.3
11.1
13.2
10.7
2,417
2,936
2,878
2,604
2,579
2,429
2,493
2,536
3,111
2,615
3,180
3! 537
3,426
3,100
3,070
2,892
2,933
2,882
3,496
2,938
18.3
19.0
19.7
19.7
19.6
22.4
23.6
22.6
23.7
26.4
11.1
11.4
11.4
11.0
10.0
11.9
12.5
11.0
11.1
12.7
7.1
7.6
8.4
8.8
9.7
10.5
11.0
11.6
12.7
13.7
38.5
40.2
41.7
42.7
43.1
45.5
50.6
49.9
51.7
56.3
34.2
35.2
36.5
37.5
37.3
39.4
43.4
42.8
44.2
48.2
27.4
28.6
30.3
31.6
31.8
33.7
36.6
38.3
39.7
42.4
11.1
11.6
11.4
11.1
11.3
11.8
14.0
11.6
12.0
13.9
11.5
12.0
12.0
11.7
10.5
12.9
13.9
12.2
12.1
14.0
2,907
3,124
3,263
3,288
3,025
3,830
4,266
3,867
3,949
4,672
3,230
3,471
3,586
3,574
3,253
4,032
4,353
3,867
3,797
4,286
26.8
28.0
33.5
47.7
44.0
44.8
12.6
13.0
16.3
28.7
23.1
23.1
14.2
15.0
17.2
19.0
20.9
21.7
58.6
60.6
70.1
95.3
101.1
50.5
52.9
61.2
86.9
93.5
44.8
47.8
52.8
65.8
73.4
13.8
12.8
17.3
29.5
27.7
13.8
14.2
18.2
33.1
26.1
26.0
4,667
4,879
6,332
11,639
9,211
9,260
4,094
4,100
5,106
8,434
5,721
5,230
84.6
92.6
100.4
103.6
76.1
84.2
92.0
95.2
60.0
64.1
69.2
70.0
24.6
28.5
31.2
33.6
27.0
31.9
36.0
37.5
9,490
11,220
12,660
13, 190
7,240
8,250
9,040
9,100
105.8
97.6
99.2
101.9
98.4
90.1
91.5
94.1
72.6
73.2
73.8
74.0
33.2
24.4
25.4
27.9
34.3
22.8
22.3
25.0
12, 120
8,060
7,880
8,830
7,920
5,070
4,800
5,190
93.7
99.9
102.9
85.5
91.7
94.7
74.0
75.4
77.2
19.7
24.5
25.7
20.7
27.0
28.7
27.6
7,370
9,620
10,220
9,830
4,240
5,500
5,710
5,430
1929
1933
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
7.4
7.6
10.1
14.1
16.5
16.6
17.2
20.0
21.1
23.8
19.5
4.8
4.8
6.8
10.1
12.1
12.2
12.8
15.5
15.8
18.0
13.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959..
20.3
22.7
22.0
19.7
18.3
17.4
17.6
17.5
19.2
17.4
1960. .
1961
1962 .
1963
1964. .
1965.
1966..
1967
1968.
1969
1970.
1971
1972.
1973
1974
1975 v
1973: 1
II . .
Ill
IV
1974:1
II
III ..
IV
Net income per
farm, including
net inventory
change
..
1975: 1
II
Ill
IV v
1
Net income to farm operators including net inventory change, less net income of nonresident operators, plus wages and
salaries and other labor income of farm resident workers, less contributions of farm resident operators and workers to
social insurance.
2
Consists of income received by farm residents from nonfarm sources, such as wages and salaries from nonfarm employment, nonfarm business and professional income, rents from nonfarm real estate, dividends, interest, royalties,
unemployment compensation, and social security payments.
* Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney and other farm income furnished by farms
(excluding net inventory change).
4
Includes net value of physical change in inventory of crops and livestock valued at average prices for the year.
6
Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1967 base.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
268
TABLE B-84.—Farm production indexes, 1929-75
[1967=100]
Crops2
Year
Farm
output^
Feed
Total 3 grains
Hay
and
forage
Food Vegegrain table
Livestock and products 2
Fruits
and
nuts
Cotton
ToOil
bacco crops Total 3
Meat
animals
Dairy Poultry
prod- and
ucts eggs
1929....
54
62
48
69
52
73
70
204
78
11
54
52
76
1933....
51
56
44
61
35
65
72
178
70
9
57
58
80
32
1939....
58
64
51
66
48
72
91
162
97
25
59
59
82
35
1940...
1941...
1942...
1943. .1944...
60
63
70
69
71
67
68
76
72
75
52
56
64
58
61
76
75
82
80
79
52
59
62
54
66
74
75
79
86
82
88
93
92
80
92
173
148
176
157
168
74
64
72
71
99
27
29
40
41
36
61
64
71
77
74
60
63
72
81
73
85
89
92
91
93
36
39
45
52
52
1945. ..
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949 _-
70
72
69
76
74
73
77
73
84
79
59
64
49
71
63
82
77
74
73
73
69
72
84
81
69
84
93
81
86
83
84
100
95
87
92
124
119
163
205
220
101
118
107
101
100
35
34
39
47
45
73
71
70
68
72
70
68
67
66
69
95
94
93
90
93
54
50
50
49
54
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953. -.
1954...
74
76
79
80
80
77
78
82
81
80
63
59
62
61
64
78
81
79
81
81
65
64
82
75
66
85
80
80
84
82
93
94
91
93
93
137
208
208
208
226
103
119
114
105
114
46
47
46
47
49
75
78
79
80
82
74
79
79
78
81
93
92
92
97
98
57
59
60
61
64
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
83
83
81
87
89
83
82
81
89
89
68
67
73
80
83
86
82
89
89
85
63
65
62
91
73
85
91
88
90
89
93
97
89
96
99
188
202
183
150
157
112
111
85
88
91
53
60
58
69
64
84
85
83
85
89
86
83
80
82
88
99
101
101
101
100
63
69
70
74
76
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
91
92
92
96
95
93
92
92
96
93
86
77
78
85
74
90
90
93
94
94
86
79
74
77
85
90
96
94
94
90
93
97
97
95
95
170
195
204
211
232
99
105
118
119
113
68
77
78
81
81
88
91
92
95
98
85
89
90
95
98
101
104
105
104
105
76
82
82
84
87
1965...
1966...
1967. _.
1968...
1969...
98
95
100
102
102
99
95
100
103
104
87
89
100
95
99
98
96
100
99
101
88
88
100
105
98
96
97
100
104
101
100
98
100
98
116
205
130
100
148
137
94
96
100
87
91
95
97
100
114
116
95
97
100
100
101
92
96
100
101
102
104
101
100
99
98
90
96
100
98
100
1970...
1971 _ _ _
1972.. .
1973__.
1974...
101
111
110
112
106
101
112
113
120
110
89
116
112
115
92
100
106
105
109
104
91
107
102
113
120
101
100
101
102
110
109
116
104
130
122
139
145
187
175
157
97
86
88
88
100
117
121
131
155
129
105
108
108
105
106
108
112
110
108
110
100
101
102
98
98
106
107
109
106
106
1975 P..
114
122
113
108
141
112
131
112
111
151
106
111
98
102
1
32
Farm output measures the annual volume of net farm production available for eventual human use through sales from
farms
or consumption in farm households.
2
Gross
production.
3
Includes certain items not shown separately.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
269
597-578 O - 76 - 18
TABLE B-85.—Farm population, employment, and productivity, 19^9-75
Farm population
(April l)i
Year
Number
(thousands)
As percent of
total
population 2
Farm employment
(thousands) 3
Farm output
Per hour of farm work
Total
Per
Family Hired unit of
workers workers total
input
Total
Crops
Livestock
and
products
Crop
production
per
acre <
Index, 1967 = 100
1929
30, 580
25.1
12, 763
9,360
3,403
54
16
16
26
1933
32, 393
25.8
12,739
9,874
2,865
55
16
16
25
50
1939
30, 840
23.5
11,338
8,611
2,727
60
19
20
27
60
30, 547
30,118
28,914
26, 186
24,815
23.1
22.6
21.4
19.2
17.9
10, 979
10, 669
10, 504
10, 446
10,219
8,300
8,017
7,949
8,010
7,988
2,679
2,652
2,555
2,436
2,231
62
64
70
68
69
20
22
24
24
24
21
23
25
24
25
27
28
30
31
31
62
63
70
64
68
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
24, 420
25, 403
25, 829
24, 383
24, 194
17.5
18.0
17.9
16.6
16.2
10, 000
10, 295
10,382
10, 363
9,964
7,881
8,106
8,115
8,026
7,712
2,119
2,189
2,267
2,337
2,252
70
72
70
76
73
26
28
28
31
32
27
29
29
33
33
31
32
33
34
35
67
71
67
75
70
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
23, 048
.- 21, 890
21,748
19, 874
19,019
15.2
14.2
13.9
12.5
11.7
9,926
9,546
9,149
8,864
8,651
7,597
7,310
7,005
6,775
6,570
2,329
2,236
2,144
2,089
2,081
73
73
75
77
78
34
35
38
40
42
36
35
39
40
42
37
39
40
42
43
69
70
73
72
71
19,078
18,712
17,656
17,128
16, 592
11.5
11.1
10.3
9.8
9.4
8,381
7,852
7,600
7,503
7,342
6,345
5,900
5,660
5,521
5,390
2,036
1,952
1,940
1,982
1,952
80
82
82
89
89
45
48
51
57
60
45
48
53
61
61
46
49
50
54
59
74
76
77
86
85
15, 635
14, 803
14,313
13, 367
12,954
8.7
8.1
7.7
7.1
6.8
7,057
6,919
6,700
6,518
6,110
5,172
5,029
4,873
4,738
4,506
1,885
1,890
,827
,780
,604
93
94
95
98
97
65
68
71
77
81
66
69
72
77
79
62
66
71
77
83
89
92
95
97
95
12,363
11,595
10,875
10,454
10, 307
6.4
5.9
5.5
5.2
5.1
5,610
5,214
4,903
4,749
4,596
4,128
3,854
3,650
3,535
3,419
,482
,360
1,253
1,213
1,176
102
97
100
101
101
89
92
100
106
110
90
94
100
106
108
86
93
100
105
112
100
97
100
105
106
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
9,712
9,425
9,610
9,472
9,264
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.4
4,523
4,436
4,373
4,337
4,392
3,348
3,275
3,228
3,169
3,076
1,175
1,161
1,146
1,168
1,316
101
110
109
110
104
112
126
129
133
129
110
120
124
128
117
121
130
138
144
156
104
112
115
115
104
1975 p
8,900
4.2
4,350
3,033
1,317
111
136
130
145
114
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.
. ..
.
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
.
..
56
i Farm population as defined by Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce, i.e., civilian population
living on farms, regardless of occupation.
2 Total population of United States as of July 1 including Armed Forces overseas.
* Includes persons doing farmwork on all farms. These data, published by the Department of Agriculture, Statistical
Reporting Service, differ from those on agricultural employment by the Department of Labor (see Table B-24) because of
differences in the method of approach, in concepts of employment, and in time of month for which the data are collected.
See monthly report on "Farm Labor."
* Computed from variable weights for individual crops produced each year.
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census).
270
TABLE B-86.—Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, and parity ratio, 1929-75
[1967=100, except as noted!
Prices received by farmers
Year or month
All farm
products
Crops
Prices paid by farmers
items,
Livestock All
interest,
and
and
products taxes,
wage rates
Family
living
items
Parity ratio 1
Production
items
Actual
Adjusted 2
1929
58
65
57
47
48
51
92
1933
28
31
25
32
34
34
64
1939
37
42
39
36
37
42
77
66
85
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
39
49
63
76
78
81
93
109
113
98
102
119
113
100
97
91
91
92
98
95
44
55
70
85
87
92
104
122
127
111
39
50
62
71
71
76
87
104
114
98
36
39
44
50
53
56
61
70
76
73
38
40
46
52
54
57
63
74
78
75
43
45
52
57
60
61
67
78
87
83
103
117
118
106
107
102
104
99
99
98
101
121
110
97
90
84
82
88
99
93
75
82
84
81
81
81
81
84
86
87
76
83
84
84
84
84
85
88
89
89
88
98
109
116
110
111
115
116
111
100
102
108
101
93
89
85
84
85
88
82
94
94
96
96
93
98
105
100
103
108
99
100
103
106
106
103
105
100
101
97
91
91
92
89
85
94
105
100
104
117
81
83
84
81
80
82
86
80
79
80
100
107
116
164
214
194
118
116
134
179
164
172
198
202
193
183
174
166
208
220
215
203
200
202
158
161
162
164
165
166
77
74
79
91
81
73
93
94
89
83
79
75
206
220
219
230
225
214
168
173
175
176
178
179
161
164
166
167
171
173
110
115
122
146
172
188
161
162
162
167
166
168
171
179
182
183
183
184
72
70
74
88
81
73
93
93
89
83
79
74
176
185
181
186
182
178
192
190
179
169
156
142
156
161
155
156
153
153
90
90
91
92
93
95
98
100
104
109
114
119
124
138
161
177
149
153
156
157
160
160
80
79
80
78
76
77
80
74
73
74
110
112
126
172
184
181
88
88
90
91
92
94
98
100
104
109
114
120
126
145
169
185
86
95
95
89
89
87
87
90
92
93
92
93
94
95
94
96
99
100
102
106
81
93
105
113
108
109
113
115
110
100
101
107
100
92
89
84
83
82
85
81
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
-.
..
1960
1961
1962
_
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
..
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1974- Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
June 15
1975- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
15
15
15
15
15
15
172
168
165
170
178
182
201
192
185
188
189
192
153
151
152
157
171
176
180
180
179
182
183
185
173
175
173
173
175
176
182
180
179
185
187
190
78
80
77
79
76
74
71
70
69
69
72
73
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
15
15
15
15
15
15
187
187
194
193
185
187
199
201
202
199
188
188
180
179
188
190
184
187
186
187
189
188
188
189
178
179
180
180
182
182
190
192
194
192
192
192
75
74
76
76
73
74
July 15
Aug 15
Sept 15
Oct 15
Nov 15... ..
Dec 15 .
78
8
79
76
74
71
70
69
70
72
74
75
75
77
76
73
74
i Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on
1910-14=100 base,
a The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
271
TABLE B-87.—Selected measures of farm resources and inputs, 1929-75
Index numbers of inputs (1967 = 100)
Crops
harvested
(millions
of
acres)l
Total
hours
of
farm
work
(billions)
365
23.2
99
329
102
39
10
30
71
67
340
22.6
93
320
96
32
6
27
73
64
1939
331
20.7
96
294
101
40
12
40
69
76
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
341
344
348
357
362
20.5
20.0
20.6
20.3
20.2
97
98
101
102
103
292
288
295
291
289
102
101
99
97
97
42
44
52
55
58
13
14
15
17
20
41
45
47
51
51
70
70
71
74
76
77
77
75
77
80
- -.
354
352
355
356
360
18.8
18.1
17.2
16.8
16.2
101
99
99
100
103
271
260
246
239
231
97
101
102
102
103
59
58
64
73
80
20
21
24
26
28
53
52
54
55
60
77
78
78
76
79
78
79
81
86
90
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
- ..
345
344
349
348
346
15.1
102
105
15.2
14.5'' 105
104
14.0
103
13.3
217
217
207
200
192
104
104
103
103
103
85
91
95
97
97
30
33
36
37
38
62
66
68
67
70
79
80
82
83
82
86
92
91
90
88
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
. ..
340
324
324
324
324
12.8
12.0
11.1
10.5
10.3
103
101
99
98
100
185
174
162
155
151
103
101
101
99
100
98
99
98
98
99
40
41
41
44
50
71
74
73
78
82
85
84
83
85
88
92
88
92
96
100
324
302
295
298
298
9.8
9.4
9.0
8.7
8.2
98
98
98
98
98
145
139
133
128
122
99
99
99
99
99
98
95
95
94
94
50
54
59
66
72
82
86
88
89
91
90
91
93
94
96
102
102
105
106
109
298
294
306
300
290
7.3
6.9
6.7
6.4
6.2
96
98
100
101
101
109
103
100
97
93
99
99
100
99
98
95
97
100
101
101
77
86
100
106
110
92
97
100
101
103
97
99
100
102
103
107
103
100
106
105
6.0
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.5
101
101
101
102
101
90
89
85
85
83
98
97
95
95
94
100
100
99
102
105
110
120
126
133
138
108
108
108
106
101
104
102
104
102
98
108
107
114
110
99
5.6
102
84
95
105
136
102
100
100
Year
1929
-
1933
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1960
1961
.
1962
1963
1964 .. .
-
- ..
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
- . .-
293
305
293
321
331
1975 v
. _.
330
Total
Farm
labor
Farm
real
estate
1
MeFeed,
chani- Agriseed,
cal
and
Taxes Miscelpower cultural
liveand
chemi- stock
laneous
and
interest
cals 2
mapurchinery
chases 3
Acreage harvested (excluding duplication) plus acreages in fruits, tree nuts, and farm gardens.
2 Fertilizer, lime, and pesticides.
3 Nonfarm portion of feed, seed, and livestock purchases.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
272
TABLE B-88.—Comparative balance sheet of the farming sector, 1929-76
[Billions of dollars]
Claims
Assets
Financial assets
Other physical assets
Beginning of
year
Real LiveTotal estate
stock
HouseMaReal Other
DeInvest- Total estate
chinhold
U.S.
ment
equip- posits
ery
debt
debt
and Crops 2 ment
and savings in cocurbonds operamotor
and
tives
vehifurnish rency
ings
cles
Proprietors'
equities
9.8
1929
48.0
6.6
3.2
1933
30 8
3.0
2.5
8.5
1939
34.1
5.1
3.2
6.8
1940....
1941.
1942....
1943
1944...
52.9
55.0
62.9
73.7
84.6
33.6
34.4
37.5
41.6
48.2
5.1
5.3
7.1
9.6
9.7
3.1
3.3
4.0
4.9
5.4
2.7
3.0
3.8
5.1
6.1
4.2
4.2
4.9
5.0
5.3
3.2
3.5
4.2
5.4
6.6
0.2
.4
.5
1.1
2.2
0.8 52.9
.9 55.0
.9 62.9
1.0 73.7
1.1 84.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.0
5.4
3.4
3.9
4.1
4.0
3.5
42.9
44.6
52.4
63.7
75.7
1945. .
1946
1947
1948
1949
94.2
103.5
116.4
127.9
134.9
53.9
61.0
68.5
73.7
76.6
9.0
9.7
11.9
13.3
14.4
6.5
5.4
5.3
7.4
10.1
6.7
6.3
7.1
9.0
8.6
5.6
6.1
7.7
8.5
9.1
7.9
9.4
10.2
9.9
9.6
3.4
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.6
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.9
94.2
103.5
116.4
127.9
134.9
4.9
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
3.4
3.2
3.6
4.2
6.1
85.9
95.5
107.9
118.6
123.5
1950
1951.
1952
1953
1954
132.5 75.3
151.5 86.6
167.0 95.1
164.3 96.5
161.2 95.0
12.9
17.1
19.5
14.8
11.7
12.2
14.1
16.7
17.4
18.4
7.6
7.9
8.8
9.0
9.2
8.6
9.7
10.3
9.9
9.9
9.1
9.1
9.4
9.4
9.4
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.7
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
132.5
151.5
167.0
164.3
161.2
5.6
6.1
6.7
7.2
7.7
6.8
7.0
8.0
8.9
9.2
120.1
138.4
152.3
148.2
144.3
165.1
169.6
177.9
185.8
202.1
98.2
102.9
110.4
115.9
124.4
11.2
10.6
11.0
13.9
17.7
18.6
19.3
20.2
20.2
21.8
9.6
8.4
8.3
7.6
9.3
10.0
10.5
10.0
9.9
9.8
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.5
10.0
s5.15:!
5.1
5.2
3.1 165.1
3.2 69.6
3.5 77.9
3.7 85.8
3.9 202.1
8.2
9.0
9.8
10.4
11.1
9.4
9.8
9.5
10.0
12.5
147.5
150.8
158.6
165.4
178.5
1960
1961
1962
1963..
1964
204.0
204.8
213.3
222.0
229.8
130.6
132.2
138.4
144.3
52.6
15.3
15.6
16.4
17.3
15.9
22.7
22.2
22.5
23.5
23.9
7.7
8.0
8.8
9.3
9.8
9.6
8.9
9.1
9.0
8.8
9.2
8.7
8.8
9.2
9.2
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.2 204.0
4.5 204.8
4.8 213.3
5.0 22.0
5.4 29.8
12.0
12.8
13.9
15.1
16.8
12.8
13.4
14.7
16.3
17.6
179.2
178.6
184.8
190.6
195.4
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
238.0
254.6
267.5
281.0
295.2
161.5
72.8
82.3
92.5
201.4
14.5
17.6
19.0
18.8
20.2
24.8
26.0
27.4
29.8
31.3
9.2
9.7
10.0
9.6
10.6
8.6
8.5
8.4
9.1
9.6
9.6
10.0
10.3
10.9
11.5
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.8
5.6
5.9
6.2
6.5
6.8
38.0
54.6
67.5
81.0
95.2
18.9
21.2
23.1
25.1
27.4
17.9
19.4
21.0
22.3
23.0
201.2
214.0
223.4
233.6
244.8
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
306.1
317.5
343.1
387.5
475.9
06.9
15.0
31.5
60.6
25.3
23.5
23.7
27.3
34.1
42.4
32.3
34.4
36.6
39.3
44.2
10.9
10.7
11.8
14.5
22.1
9.7
10.1
11.0
12.4
13.3
11.9
12.4
13.2
14.0
14.9
3.7
3.6
3.7
4.0
4.2
7.2
7.6
8.0
8.6
9.5
06.1
17.5
43.1
87.5
75.9
29.2
30.3
32.2
35.8
41.3
23.8 253.1
24.1 263.1
27.0 283.9
29.6 332.1
32.8 401.8
1975
520.2
71.4
24.6
55.8
23.2
15.4
15.0
4.3
10.5
20.2
46.3
35.5 438.4
94.3
51.9
38.7
1955
1956
1957
1958_
1959
1976*
.
94.3
23.3
139.6
31.4
503.7
1
Beginning with 1961, horses and mules are excluded.
2 Includes all crops held on farms and crops held off farms by farmers as security for Commodity Credit Corporation
loans. The latter on January 1,1976 totaled approximately $0.1 billion.
Note.—Beginning 1960, data include Alaska and Hawaii.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
273
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
TABLE B-89.—U.S. balance of payments, 1946-75
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as notedj
Merchandise * *
Military transactions
Net investment income
Net
travel
Year
and Other
trans- servon
porta- ices, goods
tion ex- net 3
and
pendiservtures
ices i 4
or
quar-
ter
Cv
tx-
po s
Imports
Net
balance
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
11,764
16, 097
13, 265
12,213
1950...
1951_._
1952...
1953...
1954...
10, 203
14, 243
13, 449
12,412
12, 929
-9, 081
-11,176
-10,838
-10,975
-10,353
1,122
3,067
2,611
1,437
2,576
1955..
1956...
1957 ..
1958...
1959. _.
14, 424
17, 556
19, 562
16,414
16, 458
-11,527
-12,803
-13,291
-12,952
-15,310
2,897
4,753
6,271
3,462
1,148
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963. _.
1964...
19,650
20, 108
20, 781
22, 272
25, 501
-14,758
-14,537
-16,260
-17,048
-18,700
4,892
5,571
4,521
5,224
6,801
1965...
1966...
1967 ...
1968.. _
1969. _.
26,461
29, 310
30, 666
33, 626
36, 414
-21,510 4,951 -2,952
-25, 493 3,817 -3, 764
-26, 866 3,800 -4, 378
635 -4, 535
-32, 991
607 -4, 856
-35, 807
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973__.
1974. _ .
2 42,469 12 -39,866 12 2, 603
43,311 -45, 579 -2, 268
49, 388 - 55, 797-6, 409
71,379 -70,424
955
98, 309 -103, 586 -5,277
1973:
1
II — _
III...
IV...
1974:
1
II
III..
IV..
-5,067 6,697
-5,973 10, 124
-7, 557 5,708
-6, 874 5,339
Direct
expend- Sales
itures
-493
-455
-799
-621
balance
554
U.S.
Government
6
733
807
975
50
85
-576 (10)
-1,270 (10)
-2,054 (10)
-2,615
192
182
-2,642
-576
-1,270
-2,054
-2, 423
-2, 460
1,146
1,317
1,267
1,283
1,594
78
151
140
166
213
-120
-2,901
-2,949
-3,216
-3,435
-3, 107
200
161
375
300
302
-2,701
-2, 788
-2, 841
-3, 135
-2, 805
1,775
2,054
2,174
2,008
2,147
180
40
4
168
68
-3, 087
-2, 998
-3, 105
-2, 961
-2,880
335
402
656
657
747
-2, 753
-2, 596
-2, 448
-2, 304
-2, 133
830 -2,122
829 -2,935
,152 -3, 226
,392 -3, 143
,528 -3, 328
-22, 58
-123 -1,166
-25, 67 -1,459 -1,324
-27, 34 -2,315 -1,279
-27, 97 -1,380 -1,335
663
678
766
837
95
1,830 -1,303
3,37 -1,209
80
2,02 -1,113 1,24
and
other
unilateral
transfersi
Balance
on
current account
4 885
8| 992
1,993
-238
-269
298
83
242
254
309
307
305
1,892 -4,017 -2, 125
3,817 -3,515
302
2,356 -2,531
-175
532 -2,481 -1,949
1,959 -2, 280
-321
-297
-361
-189
-633
-821
299
447
482
486
573
2,153
4,145
5,901
2,356
2,270
2,832
3,177
3,227
3,926
17 -964
612
105 -978
628
134 -1,155 845
98 -1,312 996
c -1,149 1,078
4,073
5,563
5,074
5,930
8,533
-2, 300
-2, 514
-2, 628
-2, 742
-2, 769
4,143
3,543
3,865
3,941
3,471
26 -1,284
55 -1,332
41 -1,751
63 -1,548
156 -1,763
7,140
4,552
4,380
1,620
1,020
4,299
-2, 841
-2,917
1,635
1,273
-3, 107
-2,933 -1,313
-2,976 -1,956
989
347 -827 1,953
-911 -1,174
-231 "-1,236
455 H -781 1,967
531 -541 1,964
714 -1,072
1,383 -1,177 1,009 -168 2,304
22, 464
24, 218
25, 034
26,59
Remittances,
pensions,
310
73
946
374
230
-4, 855 ,501 -3, 355 3,631 -112 -2,023
-4,819 ,926 -2, 893 5,659 -956 -2,315
-4, 784 ,163 -3,621 6,208 -1,888 -3,024
-4, 658 2,342 -2,317 8,188 -3, 009 -2, 862
-5,103 2,944 -2, 158 13, 351 -3, 229 -2, 692
-16,334
-17,189
-17,73
-19,16
-25,35
-22,31
-24,69
Privates
-493
-455
-799
-621
15,423
16, 958
18, 451
20, 547
1975:
1 . 27,18
II — 25,69
Ill p. 26,71
(10)
(10)
(10)
(10)
Net
Balance
7,807 -2 922
145 11,617 -2, 625
175 6,518 -4, 525
208 6,218 -5,638
1,426
1,404
1,652
1,671
1,878
580
-345
-2 498
-2, 423
1,722
-2, 345
3,556
-2,361
-5
310 -2, 448 -2, 138
1,774
3,048
2,446
3,188
5,764
2,220 2,966 -3,248
-281
2,537 -237 -3, 642 -3,879
2,803 -5,930 -3, 779 -9,710
3,222 4,177 -3,841
335
3,830 3,825 is-7,182 is-3,357
-629
-759
-801
-820
-714
-779
-667
-702
767
749
884
823
-361
-755 -1,116
166 -1,015
-849
1,553
-900
653
2,820 -1,173
1,647
4,014
2,745
3,161
3,431
-769
-781
-807
-872
886
-513
936
-717
-721
960
-741 1,049
is 26
2,992 is -2,966
78 -1,865 -1,787
-235 -1,265 -1,500
989 -1,088
-99
-349 2,165
-405 2,235
128 2,572
-989
-843
-794
-572 1,093
-393 1,043
-480 1,095
3,178 -1,175
5,015 -1,183
4,547 -1,047
-503
-646
-513
-498
1
Excludes military grants.
2
Adjusted from Census data
3
2,003
3,832
3,500
for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are
excluded
from
net
investment
income
and included in other services, net.
4
In concept, equal to net exports of goods and services in the national income and product accounts, although the two
series
may
differ
because
of
revisions,
special handling of certain items, etc.
5
Excludes liabilities to foreign official reserve agencies.
8
Private foreigners exclude the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but include other international and regional
organizations.
7
Includes liabilities to foreign official agencies reported by U.S. Government and U.S. banks and U.S. liabilities to the
IMF arising from reversible gold sales to, and gold deposits with, the United States.
8 Official reserve assets include gold, special drawing rights, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position
in the IMF. Minus sign indicates increase.
(Footnotes continued on following page.)
274
TABLE B-89.—U.S. balance of payments, 1946-7 —Continued
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, excej.. as noted]
Long-term
capital
flows,
net
Balance
on current
Year or
account
quarter
and
U.S.
longGovPriterm
ernvate • capital
ment"
1946
1947
1948
1949
AlloNoncaliquid tions
shortof
term
speprivate cial
capital drawflows,
ing
net« rights
(SDR)
Errors
and
omissions,
net
Net
liquid-
bafance
**
Liq- Official
uid
reserve
pritransvate actions
capital
balflows,
ance
net*
**
Changes
in liabilities Changes
in U.S.
to
official
foreign reserve
official assets,
agen- nets
cies,
net?
U.S.
official
reserve
assets,
net
(unadjusted,
end of
period)*
..
-253
-236
-131
158
155
861
1,115
717
-623
-3,315
-1,736
-266
20,706
24,021
25,758
26,024
1950 .
1951
1952
1953
1954 ..
75
-227
-41
183
-556
-124
354
497
220
60
1,758
-33
-415
1,256
480
24,265
24, 299
24,714
23,458
22,978
1955 .
1956
1957
1958
..
1959
-328
-479
-174
—145
-89
371
390
1,012
361
260
182
-869
-1, 165
2,292
1,035
22,797
23,666
24,832
22, 540
21, 504
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
-885 -2, 100 -1,211 "-1,405
-885 -2, 182
-20 H-1,200
-882 -2,606 -1,043 » -657
-1,151 -3, 376 -1, 339 11 -968
-1,352 -4,511 -100 -1,643
-1,060
-1,032
-1, 165
-406
-954
2,145
606
1,533
377
171
19,359
18,753
17,220
16,843
16,672
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
-1,539 -4,577 -1,817
-1,478 -2,778 -2,621
-2, 337 -2,909 -3,973
-2, 164 1,190 -2,287
-1,949
-44 -3,949
-506
575
-189
446
-1,492
67 1,222
-2,478 1,188 -1,290
568
219 -787
-2, 151 2,370
52
-4,683 1,265 -3, 418 3,366
1,641
-761 -880
-1,611 3,252
-6,081 8,820 2,739 -1, 552 -1, 187
15,450
14,882
14,830
15,710
16, 964
-9,839 7,362 2,477
-29,753 27,405
-10,354 10, 322
209
-5, 308 5,099
-8, 397 9,831 -1,434
HI
14,487
12, 167
13, 151
14, 378
15, 883
220
17
-13
-15
12,931
12,914
12,927
14, 378
-154
-104
-522
231
-640
1970.. „ -2, 045 -1,434 -3, 760
-482
-2,376 -4, 3*3 -10,637 -2,347
1971
-1,334
1972
-69 -11,113 -1,542
1973
-1,490
177 -977 -4, 238
is 1, 119 -8,463 -10, 702 -12,936
1974
1973:
-476 -3,851 -5,988
867
717 -9,698 -21,965 -7, 788
710 -1,884 -13,829 3,475
-2, 436 -7, 651 2,343
4,698 -18,940 10, 543
-334
57 -1,393 -1, 543
54 -290 -1,085 -1, 497
-442 1,706 1,917
59
-769 -1,297 -419 -1, 257
-3,875
863
-150
726
1974:
1
"1,411
264 1,701 -3, 908
II
484 -999 -2, 302 -5, 265
III....
83 -2, 157 -3, 574 -1,458
IV
-860 -5, 570 -6, 529 -2,305
1,014
1,313
1,135
1,236
1975:
1
II
Ill p..
2,067
843
-37
II
Ill
IV
-474 -2, 199
-354 -2, 431
-563 -1,357
-670
1,929
1,047
-970
1,580 -1,335
"-3,677 H273
n-2,252 H904
"-2,864 11 214
n-2,713 "779
-2,696 1,162
-3,403
-1, 348
-2,650
-1,934
-1,534
1,258
742
1,117
1,557
1,363
-6,811 -3,818 -10,629 10,409
551 -568
-1,719 2,270
1,826
492 2,318 -2, 305
-950 3,399 2,449 -2,434
-1,193
-6, 254
-3, 897
-7, 598
1,745
552
2,054 -4, 200
4,014
117
2,730 -4, 868
-342 -210 14, 588
4,558 -358 14,946
886 -1,003 15,893
4,731
137 15,883
3,326 -6, 587 -3, 261 3,586
920 -2, 634 -1 714 1,743
208 4,711 4,919 -4, 577
IV v .
-325
-29
-342
89
16,256
16, 242
16,291
16,226
9
Includes increases (in millions) as follows: for 1969, $67 resulting from revaluation of the German mark in October
1969; for 1971, $28 in dollar value of foreign currencies revalued to reflect market exchange rates as of December 31,
1971; for 1972, $1,016 resulting from change in par value of the dollar on May 8,1972; and for 1973, $1,436 resulting from
change in par value of the dollar on October 18,1973.
Beginning July 1974, valuation of SDR and reserve position in the IMF based on a weighted average of exchange rates
for the currencies of 16 member countries. On a pre-July 1974 basis, reserve assets for December 31, 1974 are $15,812
million and for December 31,1975, $16,366 million.
10 Not available separately.
n Coverage of liquid banking claims for 1960-63 and of liquid nonbanking claims for 1960-62 is limited to foreign
currency deposits only; other liquid items are not available separately and are included with nonliquid claims.
12 Data beginning 1970 not strictly comparable with earlier data.
i^ Includes extraordinary U.S. Government transactions with India.
" Includes return import into the United States, at a depreciated value of $22 million, of aircraft originally reported in
1970 III sales as a long-term lease to Australia.
**These balances have been used to measure exchange market pressures on the dollar. Under current floating exchange
rate conditions, these pressures are inadequately reflected in the balances.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury.
275
TABLE B-90.—U.S. merchandise exports and imports by commodity groups, 1958-75
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted)
Merchandise exports »
Year or
month
Merchandise trade
balance
Merchandise imports
Domestic exports
General imports »
Total
domestic
Food, Crude
Food, Crude Manand
bever- mate- Manmate- ufacufac- Total,
foreign Totals beverTotals
rials
ages, rials tured
ages,
c.i.f.
tured
ex- 2
and
and
and
toand
tovalue7
ports
bacco fuels* goods «
bacco fuels* goods*
Exports
less
imports,
customs
value
Exports Exports
less
less
im- imports,
ports,
c.i.f.
f.a.s.
Customs value
F.a.s. value •
1958
1959
16, 375 16,211 2,688 3,052 11,547 13, 392 3,550 4,164 5,311
16, 426 16, 243 2,852 2,996 11, 179 15, 690 3,580 4,615 7,117
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
19, 659 19, 459
20, 226 19, 982
20, 986 20, 717
22, 467 22, 182
25, 832 25,479
3,167
3,466
3,743
4,188
4,637
3,942 12, 583
3,864 12, 784
3,356 13, 668
3 775 14, 297
4,337 16, 529
15,073
14, 761
16, 464
17, 207
18, 749
3,392
3,455
3,674
3,863
4,022
4,418
4,334
4,691
4,755
5,029
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
26, 742 26, 399
29, 490 29, 054
31, 030 30, 646
34, 063 33, 626
37, 332 36, 788
4,519
5,186
4,710
4,592
4,446
4,273 17, 433
4,404 19, 218
4,726 20, 844
4,865 23, 818
5,006 26, 785
21, 427
25, 618
26, 889
33, 226
36, 043
4,013
4,590
4,701
5,365
5,308
5,440 11,244
5,718 14, 446
5,367 15, 756
6,031 20, 624
6,391 23, Oil
1970 . ...
1971
1972
1973
1974
42,659 42,025
43, 549 42,911
49, 199 48,399
70, 823 69, 730
97, 908 96, 545
5,058 6,692 29, 344
5,076 6,441 30,443
6,569 7,091 33, 740
12, 938 10, 735 44, 731
15,233 15,802 63, 523
2,983
736
6,863
6,537
7,649
8,070
9,106
39, 951 6,230 6,542 25,907
45, 563 6,404 7,268 30, 414
55, 583 7,379 8,838 37, 767
69, 476 9,235 13,446 45, 001
100,997 10, 701 31,842 56, 202
4,586
5,465
4 522
5,260
7,083
5,315
3,872
4,141
837
1,289
2,283
-1,257
-909
42,429 2,708
48,342 -2,014
58,862 -6, 384
73, 573 1,348
107,996 -3, 089
230
-4,793
-9,663
-2,752
-10,088
28,745
35, 320
38,241
F.a.s. value »
97,908 96, 545 15,233 15, 802 63,523 100,251 10, 708 32,064 55,223 107,996 -3, 089 -2, 343 -10, 088
16,786 15,403 70,808 95,410 9,995 32,329 50,791 102,838 10, 771 11,571 4,143
106,981
1974
19759
1,299
1,329
,308
,326
,199
,231
1,096
1,269
1,238
1,330
1,328
1,374
4,499
4,717
4,796
5,138
4,962
5,407
836 1,695 3,748
6,498
7,318 896 2,066 4,028
7,742 1,055 2,204 4,222
881 2,880 4,214
8,025
8,265
931 2,739 4,452
923 2,839 4,679
8,577
8,307
8,379
8,399
8,673
8,973
8,862
,236
,182
,102
,250
,396
,378
1,381
1,318
1,224
1,266
1,560
1,332
5,387
5,602
5,659
5,889
5,845
5,812
8,922
9,267
8,696
8,773
8,973
9,257
942
899
783
716
940
943
2,948
3,103
2,860
3,007
3,003
2,985
1975: Jan.—
Feb....
Mar...
Apr
May...
June...
9,412
8,789
8,716
8,570
8,145
8,692
,735
,526
,388
,368
,146
,177
1,595
1,319
1,356
1,184
1,197
1,154
5,747
5,658
5,573
5,732
5,467
6,044
9,622
7,872
7,336
8,013
7,093
6,954
796
794
821
777
728
893
3,589
2,417
1,864
2,951
2,441
1,967
July...
Aug...
Sept...
Oct...,
Nov....
8,885
8,996
9,165
9,288
9,409
,267
,380
,355
,509
,538
1,248
1,344
1,204
1,186
1,332
6,097
5,997
6,091
6,306
6,194
1974: Jan....
Feb....
Mar...
Apr-May...
June.-.
7,150
7,549
7,625
8,108
7,652
8,317
July...
Aug...
Sept...
Oct....
Nov...
Dec....
::::::
7,019
7,882
8,311
8,639
8,921
9,257
613
174
-160
44
-674
-318
132
652
231
-333
-685
-117
83
-531
-612 -1,269
-940
-260
4,834
5,092
4,952
4,961
5,044
5,062
9,612
10, 000
9,372
9,451
9,656
9,943
-659
-964
-369
-193
-100
-460
-615 -1,305
-888 -1,620
-972
-297
-779
-100
-683
-395 -1,081
4,793
4,286
4,441
4,051
3,828
3,951
10, 365
8,441
7,894
8,800
7,631
7,491
-247
879
1,294
482
967
1,651
-211
917
1,380
557
1,052
1,737
-953
348
822
-230
514
1,200
830 2,714 4,191
7,908
7,961 786 2,710 4,193
8,189 1,003 3,117 4,049
8,212
841 2,912 4,332
894 2,953 4,440
8,299
8,494
8,569
8,812
8,840
8,933
916
985
910
1,000
1,036
977
1,035
976
1,076
1,110
391
427
353
448
477
1 Beginning I960, data have been adjusted for comparability with the revised commodity classifications effective in 1965.
2
Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military.
Assistance Program.
3 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
< Includes fats and oils.
* Includes machinery, transportation equipment, chemicals, metals, and other manufactures. Export data for these items
include military grant-aid shipments.
«Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
7
C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry into United States. Data for 1967-73 are estimates.
« F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for
imports.
9
Seasonally adjusted annual rate for 11 months.
Note.—Data are as reported by the Bureau of the Census adjusted to include silver ore and bullion reported separately
prior to 1969. Export statistics cover all merchandise shipped from the U.S. customs area, except supplies for U.S. Armed
Forces. Exports include shipments under Agency for International Development and Food for Peace programs as well as
other private relief shipments.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research).
276
TABLE B-91.— U.S. merchandise exports and imports by area, 1969-75
[Millions of dollars]
Area
1969
1970
1975
1971
1972
1973
1974
Jan,Nov.
Exports (domestic and foreign and special category
shipments)
Developed countries
Canada 1
_.
Western Europe 2
Japan
Australia, New Zealand, and Republic of
South Africa
Developing countries 3
Petroleum exporting countries
Other countries
Other Western Hemisphere. _
Near East
East ahd South Asia
Developing Africa
Socialist areas in Europe and Asia
Unidentified countries l
Developed countries
Canada
Western Europe 2
Japan
Australia, New Zealand, and Republic of
South Africa
.
Developing countries 3 _
Petroleum exporting countries
Other countries
Socialist areas in Europe and Asia
Unidentified countries 4
43, 224
44, 130
49, 759
71, 339
98 507
98 380
30, 877
30, 335
34 319
47 209
63 021
59 273
9,137
9,079
10, 365
12 415
15 104
19 936
19 956
12 392
3,490
14, 463
4,652
14 178
4 055
15 361
4*963
21 359
8 313
28 637
10 679
27 285
8* 834
1,460
1,683
1 737
1 580
2 432
3 769
3 198
11,277
12,993
13,410
14, 556
20 963
32 695
35 904
2,451
8,826
2,659
10, 334
2,932
10 478
3,375
11 181
4 540
16 423
8 140
24 555
11 422
24* 482
5,576
1 344
3,495
6,532
1,423
4,029
7,275
1 954
4 373
898
9,929
3 041
6 600
1,334
15
5
9
2
809
557
196
044
15 651
8* 168
9*272
2*709
883
2 491
2 239
677
552
2 745
819
940
6, 485
1 816
4 047
1,009
249
354
384
.
General imports.
Other Western Hemisphere .
Near East
East and South Asia
Developing Africa
--
38,006
26, 479
36, 043
39, 952
45, 563
55, 583
69, 476
26, 460
29, 259
33 744
40 822
10, 384
10, 138
4 888
11, 092
11, 169
5,875
12 691
12 658
7 259
14 927
15, 423
9 064
-.
87, 265
48 530
59 786
50 838
17 715
19 286
9 676
21 929
23 521
12 338
19 728
IB 823
10* 223
1,050
1,123
1,136
1,408
1,853
2,000
2 064
9,373
10, 442
11, 549
14, 356
20, 313
39, 443
35 626
2,384
6,989
2,516
7,926
3,060
8,489
3,729
10, 627
6 309
10, 004
20 488
18, 955
19 381
16* 245
5,836
6,038
7,003
14
4
9
6
5,163
.
458
100, 251
383
371
593
773
3,039
3,397
3,941
762
800
930
5,264
1,253
9,607
1,396
7 043
2,180
18, 403
4,740
10 242
5,941
198
12
227
24
229
41
354
51
593
40
1 007
15
752
779
229
755
790
11
1
Beginning January 1973, transshipments of certain grains and oilseeds through Canada are shown as exports to unidentified countries.
2
Includes Finland, Yugoslavia, Greece, and Turkey.
3
Includes developing countries in Oceania.
4
Consists of certain low-valued shipments not identified by country.
Note: Exports are f.a.s. (free alongside ship); 1959-73 imports are Customs values, generally the market value in the
foreign country; and 1974-75 imports are transaction values f.a.s. Petroleum exporting developing countries are as follows:
OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)—Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya,
Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela; and other petroleum exporting developing countriesAngola, Bahamas, Bahrain, Brunei, Egypt, Leeward and Windward Islands, Netherlands Antilles, Oman, Trinidad and
Tobago, and Tunisia.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research).
277
TABLE B-92.— International reserves, 1969-75
[Millions of U.S. dollars; end of period)
1975
Area and country
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
November
All countries
78,637
93,210
131,503
159,025
183,668
220,617
224, 103
Industrialized countries1
55,003
65, 806
94, 154
105, 808
115, 505
119,909
120, 159
16, 964
3,106
3,654
14,487
4,679
4,840
13, 190
5,701
15, 360
13, 150
6,050
18, 365
14, 378
5,768
12, 246
16, 058
5,825
13, 519
16,252
5,414
12,958
1,530
2,388
3,833
7,129
5,045
2,529
1,751
2,847
4,960
13, 610
5,352
3,241
2,343
3,473
8,253
18, 657
6,820
3,796
2,718
3,870
10, 015
23, 785
6, 085
4,785
2,873
5,100
8,529
33, 171
6,436
6,547
3,430
5,345
8,852
32, 398
6,941
6,957
4,093
5,772
12,219
31,316
5,241
7,049
1,855
4,425
2,527
2,058
5,132
2,827
2,986
6,966
6,582
3,755
7,557
5,647
5,428
8,520
6,476
4,600
9,011
6,939
5,996
8, 186
5,630
4,743
5,571
8,656
12, 753
16, 191
15, 025
13, 036
United States
Canada
Japan
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Norway, and Sweden).
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Other Europe
Australia, New Zealand, and South
Africa
..
Less developed areas
Oil exporting countries
Iran
Nigeria.—
Saudi Arabia
Venezuela
Other 2
2,870
2,962
4,520
8,263
7,824
6,068
5,884
16, 021
18,871
24, 174
32, 201
44, 146
79, 615
85, 025
4,291
5,226
8,697
11,221
14, 933
48, 007
55,234
310
132
607
933
208
222
662
621
429
960
376
1,236
8,634
5,728
1,444
1,522
4,681
2,500
1,732
5,653
3,877
2,412
6,825
8,384
5,626
14, 285
6, 513
13, 199
583
8,737
2,309
1,021
3,113
Other Western Hemisphere
3,345
4,291
4,759
7,887
11,656
11,001
Other Middle East
1,458
1,581
2,126
2,834
4,343
4,945
5,384
Other Asia
5,374
5,828
6,818
8,203
10, 610
12, 767
13,146
1,553
1,945
1,773
2,056
2,603
2,896
2,648
Other Africa
^
8,612
1
Includes Luxembourg.
2 Algeria, Bahrain, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago, and United Arab
Emirates.
Note.—International reserves is comprised of monetary authorities' holdings of gold, special drawing rights (SDR)
reserve positions in the International Monetary Fund, and foreign exchange. Conversions from national currencies to U.S.
dollars from December 1971 through January 1973 are calculated at the cross rates reflecting the parities and central
rates agreed in December 1971. From February 1973 through June 1974, the intention is to reflect the cross rates of parities
or central rates for countries having effective parities or central rates and market rates for others. Beginning July 1974,
foreign exchange is valued at end-of-month market rates or in the absence of market rate quotations at prevailing official
rates. Gold is valued throughout at SDR 35 per ounce, equivalent to US$38 per ounce from December 1971 through January
1973, to US$42.22 per ounce from February 1973 through June 1974, but to the respective US$/SDR transactions value as
measured by the "basket" valuation of the SDR beginning July 1974. Data exclude U.S.S.R., other Eastern European
countries, Mainland China, and Cuba (after 1960).
Source: International Monetary Fund, "International Financial Statistics."
278
TABLE B-93.—U.S. reserve assets, 1946-75
(Millions of dollars)
Gold stock i
End of year or
month
Total reserve
assets
Total
Treasury 2
Special
drawing
rights
(SDR) 3
Convertible
foreign
currencies*
Reserve
position in
International
Monetary Fund*
1946
1947
1948
1949
20, 706
24, 021
25, 758
26, 024
20,706
22, 868
24, 399
24,563
20, 529
22, 754
24, 244
24, 427
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
24, 265
24, 299
24, 714
23, 458
22,978
22, 797
23, 666
24, 832
22, 540
21, 504
22, 820
22, 873
23, 252
22,091
21, 793
21, 753
22, 058
22, 857
20, 582
19, 507
22, 706
22,695
23, 187
22, 030
21, 713
21,690
21, 949
22,781
20, 534
19, 456
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
19, 359
18, 753
17, 220
16,843
16, 672
15, 450
14, 882
14, 830
15,710
i 16, 964
17, 804
16, 947
16, 057
15, 596
15, 471
8
13, 806
13, 235
12, 065
10, 892
11, 859
17, 767
16, 889
15,978
15, 513
15, 388
« 13, 733
13, 159
11,982
10, 367
10, 367
14, 487
r 12, 167
7 13, 151
7 14, 378
«15,883
8 16, 226
11, 072
10, 206
MO, 487
Ml, 652
11,652
11,599
10, 732
10, 132
HO, 410
'11,567
11,652
11,599
851
1,100
n,958
7 2, 166
«2,374
82,335
June
15,948
16, 132
16,256
16, 183
16, 280
16, 242
11,635
11,621
11,620
11,620
11,620
11,620
11,635
11,621
11,620
11,620
11,620
11,620
2,403
2,444
2,423
2,393
2,438
2,418
19
2
4
25
1,908
2,065
2,194
2,168
2,218
2,179
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
16, 084
16, 117
16,291
16, 568
16, 592
816.226
11,618
11, 599
11, 599
11,599
11,599
11.599
11,618
11, 599
11, 599
11,599
11,599
11.599
2,329
2,321
2,301
2,365
2,336
82.335
2
28
247
413
423
80
2,135
2,169
2,144
2,191
2,234
82.212
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
..
.
. .
1975: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
..
..
1,153
1,359
1,461
1,445
1,426
1,462
1,367
1,185
1,044
1,608
1,975
1,958
1,997
116
99
212
432
781
1,321
2,345
3,528
i 2, 781
629
7276
241
8
80
2
1,555
1,690
1,064
1,035
769
«863
326
420
1,290
2,324
1,935
585
U65
7552
81,852
82,212
'Includes gold sold to the United States by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with the right of repurchase and
gold deposited by the IMF to mitigate the impact on the U.S. gold stock of purchases by foreign countries for gold subscriptions on increased IMF quotas.
2 Prior to December 1974, excludes gold held by the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). In December 1974 the Treasury
acquired all the gold held by the ESF.
3
Includes initial allocation on January 1, 1970 of $867 million, second allocation on January 1, 1971 of $717 million,
and third allocation on January 1, 1972 of $710 million of special drawing rights (SDR) in the Special Drawing Account
in the IMF, plus or minus transactions in SDR.
«Includes holdings of Treasury and Federal Reserve System.
8
The United States has the right to purchase foreign currencies equivalent to its reserve position in the Fund automatically if needed. Under appropriate conditions the United States could purchase additional amounts equal to the
United States quota.
9
Reserve position includes, and gold stock excludes, $259 million gold subscription to the Fund in June 1965 for a U.S.
quota increase which became effective on February 23,1966.
7
Includes increases (in millions) as follows: for 1969 $67 resulting from revaluation of German mark in October 1969 ($13
in mark holdings); for 1971 $28 in dollar value of foreign currencies revalued to reflect market exchange rates as of
December 31,1971; for 1972 $1 016 in total assets resulting from the change in par value of the U .S. dollar on May 8,1972,
($828 million total gold stock, $822 million Treasury gold stock, $155 million SDR, and $33 million reserve position); for
1973 $1,436 in total assets resulting from the change in par value of the dollar on October 18,1973 ($1,165 million total
gold stock, $1,157 million Treasury gold stock, $217 million SDR, and $54 million reserve position).
8
Beginning July 1974, the IMF adopted a technique for valuing the SDR based on a weighted average of exchange
rates for the currencies of 16 member countries. SDR holdings and reserve position in the IMF are also valued on this
basis beginning July 1974. At valuation used prior to July 1974 (SDR 1=$1.20635), end of month values are (in millions):
Total
reserve
assets
15,812
16,366
1974: Dec..
1975: Dec..
SDR
2,338
2,404
Reserve
position
in IMF
1,817
2,283
Note.—Gold held under earmark at Federal Reserve Banks for foreign and international accounts is not included in
the gold stock of the United States.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Board of Gcvernors of the Federal Reserve System.
279
TABLE B-94.—International investment position of the United States at year-end, 1960 and
1970-74
[Billions of dollars]
Type of investment
1960
1970
1971
1972
19741
1973
Net international investment position of the
United States2
44.7
67.8
56.1
49.7
61 9
77 6
U.S. assets abroad
85.6
165.4
179.5
199.5
225 3
264 6
66.2
148.6
163.3
180 6
203 2
234 9
16.9
32.1
34.2
36 1
38 8
38 3
14 0
29.7
31.8
34 1
36 2
36 3
2 6
2 0
Nonliquid assets
U S Government
Long-term credits
Foreign currencies
short-term assets
_ _
and
other
Private long-term
Direct investments abroad
Foreign securities
Other claims3
Private short-term nonliquid claims 3 _ Liquid assets
Private claims 3
U.S. monetary reserve assets
2.4
2.4
2 0
44 5
103 6
114.5
127 8
142 6
160 0
31 9
9 6
3 1
75.5
21.0
83 0
90 5
27 6
9 7
103 7
27 9
11 1
118 6
28 8
12 6
M.8
12.8
14.6
16.7
21.8
36.6
19 4
16.9
16.1
18 9
22 1
29 7
4.0
7.2
Nonliquid liabilities to other than foreign
official agencies
..
12.2
5 7
5 13.2
7 7
5 14 4
13 8
5 15 9
17 8
11.1
10.2
510.5
s 11 7
52 2
624
5
6
5 19
2.4
.9
.6
1.9
Direct investments in the United
States
U.S securities
Other liabilities 3
Private short-term nonliquid 6
To private foreigners. _
To foreign official agencies
62.0
.2
5
5
.0
11 7
o
97.7
123.3
149 9
163 5
187 0
19 8
50.7
55.5
67.0
71 0
68 0
1.7
2 9
3 6
57 2
2.0
1.5
18 4
44.8
50.1
60.8
6 9
10 0
16
13 3
13.9
30.1
14 9
18 3
21 7
25.6
38.8
36.8
28.1
6
Liquid liabilities to private foreigners and
liquid, other readily marketable, and
nonliquid liabilities to foreign official
agencies
1.1
.3
.6
40 9
g
U.S. Government
Private long-term
8.0
14.5
16
U S liabilities to foreigners .
23.5
19 4
(4)
Gold
Special drawing rights (SDR)
Convertible currencies
Gold tranche position in IMF
Liquid
Other readily marketable
Nonliquid, reported by
Government
2 9
62.8
5.9
6.1
7.1
7.7
7 4
3.9
3.9
4.5
5.3
7.2
21 0
47.0
67.8
82.9
92.5
119.0
9 1
11.9
22.6
24.4
16.6
51.2
21.3
61.6
25.6
66.8
42.4
76.6
11 9
20.6
47.6
57.3
61.9
70.4
.5
1.7
2.3
3.7
3.2
3 9
U.S.
3.1
3.5
1
Preliminary.
2 Includes U.S. gold stock.
Reported by U.S. banks and nonbanking concerns.
4
Liquid claims are not available separately and are included with nonliquid claims.
s Reserve assets include increases from changes in the par value of the dollar, as officially implemented; on May 8,1972,
the increase totaled $1,016 million, consisting of $828 million gold stock, $155 million SDR, and $33 million gold tranche
position in IMF; and on October 18, 1973, the increase was $1,436 million, consisting of $1,165 million gold stock, $217
million SDR, and $54 million gold tranche position in IMF. Beginning July 1974, the IMF values SDR on the basis of weighted
averages of exchange rates for currencies of 16 member countries.
6
Reported by U.S. nonbanking concerns.
3
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
280
TABLE B-95.—Price changes in international trade, 1967-75
[1963=100]
1975
Area or commodity class
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Third
quarter
Unit value indexes by area
Developed areas
Total:
Exports
Terms of trade l
United States:
Exports
Terms of trade l
Developing areas
Total:
Exports
Terms of trade i
Latin America:
Exports
Terms of trade *
Southern and Eastern Asia:
Exports
Terms of trade i
105
101
104
101
108
101
114
102
119
101
130
102
156
101
197
89
214
92
110
102
111
103
115
103
121
101
125
99
129
95
150
94
191
80
214
84
103
100
103
101
106
101
109
100
116
102
128
99
167
108
325
143
2337
2132
105
100
106
99
109
100
115
101
122
101
129
177
279
99
99
97
100
102
102
106
104
108
104
113
152
III
World export price indexes
Primary commodities: Total
Foodstuffs
Coffee, tea, and cocoa..
Cereals
Other agricultural
commodities 3
Fats, oils, and oilseeds.
Textile fibers
Wool
Rubber
Minerals
.....
Metal ores
Fuels
Manufactured goods: Total 4
Nonferrous base metals *_._
101
100
103
108
115
130
188
295
297
104
101
104
111
117
132
191
248
240
108
105
110
100
119
98
136
96
119
100
132
111
174
203
202
286
229
259
96
102
88
77
75
96
101
101
105
120
184
219
205
99
88
74
74
101
85
73
98
118
83
63
78
118
85
57
64
116
109
88
65
197
186
183
129
299
183
134
139
103
102
104
111
127
141
181
477
109
108
114
122
126
134
161
216
III
161
124
118
515
239
101
100
100
108
127
143
188
553
107
107
110
117
124
134
156
186
142
150
175
180
154
154
222
281
593
2220
218
1 Terms of trade indexes are unit value indexes of exports divided by unit value indexes of imports.
2 Data are for second quarter 1975.
3 Includes forest products.
< Data for manufactured goods are unit value indexes.
Note.—Data exclude trade of socialist areas in Eastern Europe (except Yugoslavia) and Asia.
Sources: United Nations and Department of Commerce (Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research and
Bureau of Resources and Trade Assistance).
281
TABLE B-96.—Consumer price indexes in the United States and other major industrial countries
1955-75
'
[1970=100]
Period
United
States
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
United
Kingdom
69.0
70.0
72.5
74.5
75.1
69.9
70.9
73.2
75.0
75.9
52.6
52.8
54.4
54.2
54.7
50.4
51.4
53.2
61.2
65.0
70.1
71.9
73.3
75.0
75.7
62.2
64.3
65.2
67 0
66.7
57
58
62
63
64
8
9
7
8
3
59 0
61 9
64 2
66 2
66 5
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
76.3
77.0
77.9
78.8
79.9
76.7
77.1
78.0
79.4
80.8
56.7
59.7
63.8
69.2
71.9
67.3
69.5
72.9
76.4
79.0
76.7
78.5
80.9
83.3
85.2
68.2
69.7
72.9
78.3
83.0
66
67
68
70
74
4
0
3
9
8
67
69
72
73
76
1965
1966...
1967
1968
1969
81.3
83.6
86.0
89.6
94.4
82.8
85.9
88.9
92.6
96.8
76.7
80.6
83.8
88.3
92.9
81.0
83.2
85.4
89.3
95.0
88.1
91.2
92.5
93.9
96.4
86.7
88.8
91.6
92.8
95.2
78 7
83 3
86 0
89 1
95 8
80 0
83 1
85 2
89 2
94 0
100.0
104.3
107.7
114.4
127.0
100.0
102.9
107.8
116.0
128.6
100.0
106.3
111.5
124.5
153.4
100.0
105.5
111.7
119.9
136.3
100.0
105.3
111.1
118.8
127.1
100.0
105.0
110.9
122.4
146.2
100 0
107.5
115.9
125 2
137.2
100 0
109 5
117.0
126 7
147.0
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.. -
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
....
2
5
5
9
3
1975 i
138.6
142.0
171.0
151.7
134.4
169.8
150 2
183 0
1973: 1
II
III
IV
110.7
113.1
115.6
118.3
111.9
114.5
117.7
119.8
116.9
122.7
126.5
131.9
115.9
118.2
121.1
124.4
116.0
118.2
119.3
121.7
117.5
121.3
123.6
127.2
121.3
124.9
125.9
128.8
122.2
125.2
127.7
131.8
1974: 1
II
Ill
IV
121.6
125.0
128.9
132.6
122.7
126.8
130.6
134.2
144.1
150.5
156.1
162.7
129.0
134.3
138.7
143.1
124.6
126.6
127.8
129.5
133.6
140.8
150.4
160.0
131 9
135.9
138.3
142.8
137.2
145.3
149.4
156.1
1975- 1
II
Ill
135.0
137.1
140.1
142.3
137.1
140.1
144.9
147.6
165.3
171.0
172.7
176.9
147. 0
150.6
153.9
156.8
132.0
134.5
135.5
136.5
164.9
169.3
172.9
145.8
149.9
152.9
166 9
182.7
190.8
196.1
IV2
1 For United States, 12-month average; for all other countries, January-November average, except Italy and the Netherlands, January-September average.
2 October-December average for United States; and October-November average for all other countries.
Sources: Department of Labor and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
282
U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1976 O - 597-578
@FedFRASER