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ECONOMIC

TRANSMITTED
TO THE CONGRESS
FEBRUARY 197O




Economic Report
of the President

Transmitted to the Congress
February 1970
TOGETHER WITH

THE ANNUAL REPORT
OF THE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON

: 1970

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, T>.C 20402 - Price $1.50







CONTENTS
Page

ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

1

T H E USES OF OUR NATIONAL OUTPUT

4

T H E PRESENT INFLATION

6

T H E OUTLOOK FOR 1970

7

STRENGTHENING THE WORLD ECONOMY

9

SEVEN BASIC PRINCIPLES

10

ANNUAL REPORT OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
ADVISERS *

,

13

CHAPTER 1. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLICY IN 1969

21

CHAPTER 2. STABILIZATION POLICY FOR 1970

57

AND BEYOND

CHAPTER 3. USES OF THE NATIONAL OUTPUT

72

CHAPTER 4. GOVERNMENT AND THE MARKET

90

CHAPTER 5. FREEDOM AND STABILITY IN THE WORLD ECONOMY. . . .

118

APPENDIX A. UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE ECONOMY

143

APPENDIX B. REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1969

157

APPENDIX C. STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME, EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION

171

*For a detailed table of contents of the Council's Report, see page 17.




Ill







ECONOMIC REPORT
OP THE PRESIDENT




ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

To the Congress of the United States:
For many years the American people have been seeking, through
their Government, the road to full employment with stable prices.
In the first half of the 1960's, we did have price stability—but unemployment averaged 5l/2 percent of the civilian labor force.
In the second half of that decade, we did have relatively full employment—but with sharply rising prices.
After 5 years of sustained unemployment followed by 5 years of sustained inflation, some have concluded that the price of finding work for
the unemployed must be the hardship of inflation for all.
I do not agree.
It is true that we have just passed through a decade when the economy
spent most of the time far off the course of reasonably full employment
and price stability. But if we apply the hard lessons learned from the
sixties to the decade ahead, and add a new realism to the management
of our economic policies, I believe we can attain the goal of plentiful
jobs earning dollars of stable purchasing power.
Those lessons sire plain:
1. We have learned that Government itself is often the cause of wide
swings in the economy.
2. We have learned that there is a human element in economic
affairs—habit, confidence, fear—and that the economy cannot be managed mechanistically and will not suspend its laws to accommodate
political wishes.
3. We have learned that 1-year planning leads to almost as much
confusion as no planning at all, and that there is a need to increase public
awareness of long-range trends and the consequences for future years of
decisions taken now.
My 1970 Economic Report reflects these lessons. The current actions
we are taking are designed to help the American economy regain its
balance; the plans we are making are designed to build on that balance
as our free economy grows and responds to the needs of its citizens.




"Stability of economic policy/' Theodore Roosevelt pointed out, "must
always be the prime economic need of this country. This stability should
not be fossilization." Stability is a means to an end. The end we seek is
steady growth, predictable Government action in maintaining a sound
economic climate, and constant involvement of the people in setting their
own priorities.
Accordingly, this Economic Report "opens up the books" as never
before.
We are making available the facts and figures that will enable the
people to make more intelligent judgments about the future. If we are
to improve the quality of life in this Nation, we must first improve the
quality of debate about our national priorities. In this Report, and in
the Budget Message, long-range projections are made that will enable
the people to discuss their choices more effectively in the light of what
is possible.
In the read world of economics, there is a place for dreams—dreams
that are realizable if we make the hard choices necessary to make them
come true.
THE USES OF OUR NATIONAL OUTPUT
We have placed the Nation's larger decisions in the context of a
picture of the total resources available and the competing claims upon
them. A summary of this analysis is contained in Chapter 3 of the
Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers; I hope it will
be studied carefully and its precedent carried forward in future years.
That analysis is neutral about which options and claims should be
chosen. The purpose of the analysis is to help everyone observe the discipline of keeping claims and plans within the limits of our capacity, and
to make sure that excessive claims do not prevent us from achieving our
most important goals.
Even in our own highly productive and growing economy, resources
are limited. There will be competition between private and government
uses for our national income, competition among programs within government budgets, and competition among borrowers for the limited national savings.
Our problem, in short, will be to choose wisely what to do with our output and incomes. Large as they are, the claims upon them, what people
expect of them, are even larger. If we add the expenditures that consumers will want to make with larger incomes; the investment that businesses must make to assure rising productivity; the housing construction
needed to meet the current shortage and the demands of a growing pop-




illation with rising incomes; the likely expenditures of State and local
governments; the costs of present Federal programs plus the proposals
already recommended by this Administration—we find that the total
would nearly exhaust the national output until 1975. And that total
would not include tens of billions of dollars of new programs that are
commonly urged upon the Government.
We shall have to think carefully about how to choose the claims upon
the national output that will be met, since we cannot meet them all. This
choice is not made exclusively or even mainly by the Federal Government.
It is mostly made by the individuals who produce the output, earn the
income, and decide how it should be spent. Nevertheless, a Federal Government with a budget of $200 billion has a great influence on how the
national output is used. This influence is not confined to the output the
Federal Government uses itself. The taxes the Federal Government collects, the grants it makes to State and local governments, its borrowing or
repayment of debt, influence the purchases of private citizens and of State
and local governments.
Personal freedom will be increased when there is more economy in
government and less government in the economy. Economic domination,
like any other government domination, is dangerous to a free society, no
matter how benevolent its aims. Freedom depends on our recognizing the
line between domination and influence, between control and guidance.
The quality of life in America depends on how wisely we use the great
influence that Government has.
We know that existing programs of Government and probable demands of the private sector could use up all the output we can produce
for several years to come. This does not mean that we cannot do anything
new. It does mean that we have to choose. If we decide to do something new, or something more, in one direction we will have to give
up something elsewhere. There is no unclaimed pool of real resources from
which we shall be able to satisfy new demands without sacrificing or modifying some existing claims.
If we fail to tailor our demands consciously to resources available, the
likely consequences would be both misdirection of resources and inflation. We have seen this in the past 5 years. Beginning in mid-1965 the
Government imposed on the economy a large increase in nondefense
spending and the demands of the Vietnam War effort. It did not, however, face up soon enough to the need to cut back other demands by
raising taxes or by following an adequately restrictive monetary policy.
Of course, failing to take these steps did not relieve us of the necessity of
cutting back. It only meant that the cutback was imposed unfairly by
inflation, rather than in a more deliberate and equitable way.




THE PRESENT INFLATION
The inflation unleashed after mid-1965 had gathered powerful momentum by the time this Administration took office a year ago. The
expectaton of more inflation was widespread, as was skepticism of the
determination of Government to control it. Businesses, anticipating rising prices and costs, were eager to invest as early as possible and were
willing to incur high interest charges that they would pay later in presumably cheaper dollars. Workers demanded large wage increases to
catch up with past increases in the cost of living and to keep up with
expected future increases. Prices were being boosted to catch up with
past cost increases and to keep up with the future.
Inflation was in full tide.
The inflationary tide could not quickly be turned. At least it could not
be turned quickly without a serious recession. Such a recession would itself
have brought hardship to millions of people. Moreover, it would have
been another episode in the history of stop-go economic policy, when the
need was to introduce an era of steadiness in policy that could yield stability in the economy.
Our purpose has been to slow down the rapid expansion of demand
firmly and persistently, but not to choke off demand so abruptly as to
injure the economy. The greater price stability that all desired could
not, given a concern about unemployment, come quickly. This transition would take place in several steps, each of which would require
time, and only at the end would increases in the price level slow down.
1969 was a year of progress in the fight against inflation. For the
first time since the price spiral began, there was a sustained period of
combined fiscal and monetary restraint. During 1969 the rise of Federal
expenditures was slowed to an increase of $9 billion, compared with
an annual average of $20 billion in the 3 preceding years. Instead of
the rising budget deficits of earlier years there was a surplus in 1969.
Instead of the money supply expanding by 7 percent, as in 1968, it
grew at a 4.4-percent annual rate in the first half of 1969 and at a 0.7percent rate in the second half.
The growth of total spending, public and private, which was the driving force of the inflation, slowed markedly, from 9.4 percent during 1968
to 6.8 percent during 1969 and an annual rate of 4.4 percent in the fourth
quarter of 1969. This decline in the growth of spending was inevitably accompanied by what in October I called "slowing pains." Gains in real
production slowed down. Industrial production declined. Profits drifted
lower as margins were squeezed. All of these slowing pains were increased,
and the inflation prolonged, by the failure of productivity to rise, for the
first time in many years.




6

And in the latter part of the year there were the first faint signs of gain
on the price front. Instead of continuing to accelerate, the rate of inflation
itself began to level out.
THE OUTLOOK FOR 1970
As we enter 1970 continuation of a low rate of growth of sales, production, and employment for several months seems probable. Thereafter,
the performance of the economy will depend on both the continued
resolve of the Government and the difficult-to-predict behavior of the
private sector.
Government policy must now avoid three possible dangers. One is that
after a brief lull the demand for output would begin to rise too rapidly
and rekindle the inflationary process, as happened in 1967. This possibility cannot be ignored. The tax bill passed in December reduced
revenues for the next fiscal year by close to $3 billion, compared to
my original proposals, requiring the Administration to reduce spending
plans further in order to retain a surplus. Pressures for increased spending
threaten to shift the budget from the surplus position to a deficit by
the latter part of calendar 1970 unless the responsible fiscal course urged
by the Administration is accepted by the Congress.
A second danger we must consider is that the moderate and necessary slowdown may become more severe. The highly restrictive stance
of monetary policy is one reason for considering this possibility. Moreover, there is a question whether the rate of real output can long remain
essentially flat without more adverse consequences than we have so
far experienced. Until now the unemployment rate has remained low,
partly because employers have retained workers despite growing signs
of sluggishness in sales. However, they may be unwilling to do this for
long with profits shrinking.
A third danger is that although the economy remains on the path
of slow rise, and avoids either serious recession or revived inflation, this
is achieved with such tight credit conditions as to paralyze the housing
industry, preventing needed additions to the supply of homes and apartments. A Federal budget deficit, which would require the Treasury
to become again a net borrower in the capital markets, taking funds
that would otherwise go to other users, might bring this about. This is
one reason why I continue to stress the importance of a strong budget
position.
Our objective is to avoid these dangers as we achieve stability. A
necessary condition for doing this is to keep the Federal budget in
balance in the comingfiscalyear.




A prudent fiscal policy, avoiding the risks of returning to budget
deficits, and a prudent monetary policy, avoiding the risks of overly
long and overly severe restraint, offer the best promise of relieving
strains and distortions in financial markets, bringing interest rates down,
and encouraging a sustainable and orderly forward movement of the
economy.
After some months of slow expansion of sales, output, and employment,
which seems likely, a moderately quicker pace later in the year would be
consistent with continued progress in reducing the rate of inflation.
The goal of policy should therefore be moderately more rapid economic
expansion in the latter part of 1970 than we have recently been experiencing or expect for several months ahead. Keeping the Federal budget
in balance, as I have recommended, and a moderate degree of monetary
restraint will help achieve this result. This combination of policies would
also permit residential construction to revive and begin a rise toward
the path of housebuilding required by our growing number of families
needing homes and apartments.
As far as can now be foreseen, this pattern of developments through the
year could be achieved with a gross national product for 1970 of about
$985 billion. This would be 5/2 percent above that for 1969. A slowdown in the rate of increase of consumer prices is a reasonable expectation in this economic outlook.
An unfortunate cost of having allowed the inflation to run for so long
is that it courts the risk of some rise in unemployment. The policy of firm
and persistent disinflation on which we have embarked, however, holds
out the best hope of keeping that risk low.
This risk emphasizes the importance of promptly enacting the legislation this Administration has recommended for manpower training,
unemployment compensation, and welfare systems:
—The proposed Manpower Training Act would not only bring
about better planning and management of training programs; it
would also trigger an automatic increase in appropriations for
these programs if the national unemployment rate reaches 4.5
percent for 3 consecutive months.
—The unemployment compensation legislation would increase coverage, encourage States to improve benefits, and provide for
Federal financing of extended benefits if unemployment of insured workers exceeds 4.5 percent for 3 consecutive months.
—The proposed Family Assistance Program would provide income
support for poor families with children, whether headed by a male
or a female, while providing strong incentives and assistance for
those who can do so to find and accept employment.




8

Because our expanding and dynamic economy must have strong
and innovative financial institutions if our national savings are to be
utilized effectively, I shall appoint a commission to study our financial
structure and make recommendations to me for needed changes.
In 1970, we are feeling the postponed pinch of the late sixties. If responsible policies had been followed then, the problems of 1970 would be
much easier. But we cannot undo the errors of the past. We have no
choice now but to correct them, and to avoid repeating them.
STRENGTHENING THE WORLD ECONOMY
The achievement of greater balance and stability in our own economy
is also important for international finance and trade. The dollar is not
only our currency; it provides the principal vehicle for world trade and
payments. We are the world's largest exporter and importer, and instability in the United States—whether it involves inflation or recession—
has unsettling effects on the world economy. Inflationary pressures arising in the United States have added to inflationary problems in other
countries in recent years. The long inflation has also weakened our
trading position. However, with the restraining of excessive demand in
1969, the deterioration in our trade balance has been arrested.
I am particularly gratified to note improvements in the international
monetary scene during the past year with the introduction of Special
Drawing Rights and with the realignment of several important currencies. In cooperation with other countries, we are actively investigating
other ways to make the international monetary system more stable and
orderly, and to give more attention to international coordination and
synchronization in the management of domestic economic policies.
Although a high and rising level of international trade can add to the
prosperity of the United States and other countries, imports from time to
time may cause domestic dislocations. Since the gains from international
trade are enjoyed by the country as a whole, it is appropriate that the
costs of trade-associated dislocations be spread more evenly. The trade
bill presented to the Congress in November contains practical adjustment
assistance and escape-clause provisions that would soften the impact
of import competition in cases where it harms our own workingmen.
It also includes the repeal of the American selling price method of tariff
evaluation, a step which is important in reducing the nontariff barriers
to U.S. exports.
Trade is vital to the progress of the less developed countries of the
world. With other industrialized nations, the United States is exploring




ways of enabling less developed nations to participate more in the growing volume of international trade.
SEVEN BASIC PRINCIPLES
Since this is my first Economic Report, it is in order for me to set out the
basic principles that will continue to guide the management of economic
policy in my Administration:
First, the integrity and purchasing power of the dollar must be assured.
To re-create confidence in a secure future, we must achieve that reasonable stability of the price level which has been so severely eroded since
mid-1965. The unfairness of a steeply rising cost of living must not again
be inflicted on this Nation.
Second, our economic policy must continue to emphasize a high utilization of the Nation's productive resources. We must maintain a vigorous
and expanding economy to provide jobs for our growing labor force.
Third, we must achieve a steadier and more evenhanded management of our economic policies. Business and labor cannot plan, and consumers and homebuyers cannot effectively manage their affairs, when
Government alternates between keeping first the accelerator and then the
brake pedal to the floor.
Fourth, Government must say what it means and mean what it says.
Economic credibility is the basis for confidence, and confidence in turn
is the basis for an ongoing prosperity.
Fifth, we must preserve and sustain the free market economy in order
to raise the standard of living of every American. The most basic improvement in our national life during the last three decades has come through
the doubling of real purchasing power that our free competitive economy has delivered to the average American family. No Government
programs during that period begin to approach this doubling of real
income per family as a source of our improving economic well-being.
Government now has both the ability and the duty to sustain a general
climate for stability and growth, but it must do so in the firm conviction
that only a free economy provides maximum scope for the knowledge,
innovativeness, and creative powers of each individual.
Sixth, we must involve the American people in setting goals and priorities by providing accurate, credible data on the long-range choices open
to them, making possible much better informed public discussion about
using the resources we will have in meeting the needs of the future. The
1970 Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers is a long first
step in that direction.




10

Finally, the free economy of the future will rest squarely on the foundation of genuinely equal opportunity for all. Some, because of race or
national origin, find themselves situated far back of the starting line in
our economy. Others by the happenstance of health, accidental injury,
education, or economic background are unable to participate fully in our
economic life; still others become casualties of obsolete skills. We are
deeply committed to make a reality of the promise of an equal opportunity in life, so that the fruits of our economic progress and abundance
will become available to all. The national conscience demands it, human
dignity requires it, and our free and open economic system cannot be
fully effective without it.

February 2,1970.




II




THE ANNUAL REPORT
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

372-111 O—70




2

13




LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,

Washington, D.C., January 29, 1970.
T H E PRESIDENT:

SIR: The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its Annual
Report, February 1970, in accordance with Section 4(c) (2) of the Employment Act of 1946.
Respectfully,




PAUL W.

MCCRACKEN,

Chairman.

S^^a^JUu^
HENDRIK S. HOUTHAKKER.

HERBERT STEIN.




CONTENTS
Page

CHAPTER 1. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POLICY IN 1969

21

The Goals of Stabilization Policy
The Strategy of Policy in 1969
Direct Influence on Wages and Prices
The Expected Chain From Policy to Results
The Record in 1969
Fiscal Developments
Monetary Restraint
The Flow of Credit
The Demand for Output
Shares in the National Income.
The Labor Market
Price Movements

21
22
23
25
27
30
33
34
39
45
46
51

CHAPTER 2. STABILIZATION POLICY FOR 1970 AND BEYOND

Policy and Outlook for 1970
The Policy Objectives for 1970
Policy for 1970
Outlook for GNP and its Components
Unemployment and Manpower Policy for 1970
Manpower Training Act
Employment Security Amendments
Family Assistance Plan
Other Manpower Programs
The Transition to Full Employment Growth
The Stabilization Problem in the Longer Run
Stabilizing the Growth of GNP
Improving Our Economic Data
Living With Instability
The Continuing Problems of Inflation and Unemployment.
CHAPTER 3. USES OF THE NATIONAL OUTPUT

Introduction
The Decisionmaking Process
The Level of Decisionmaking
Budgetary Balance as Discipline
Toward Improving Federal Decisions
Future National Output and the Claims Upon It
Potential and Projected GNP
Claims on the National Output
Balancing Claims and Resources
Conclusions
Appendix: Basis for Estimates of Output and Claims




17

57

57
57
59
60
62
63
63
64
64
65
66
66
69
70
70
72

72
74
74
75
76
78
79
79
81
83
84

CHAPTER 4. GOVERNMENT AND THE MARKET

Role of the Government
Costs of Government Intervention
Improving the Efficiency of Markets
Promotion of Competition
Adequate Information for Consumers
Protection of the Environment
Regulation
Government and the Financial System
Government Regulation of Agriculture
Regulation of Noncompetitive Markets
Government Participation in the Market
Postal Service
Uranium Enrichment Facilities
The Government and Housing
CHAPTER 5. FREEDOM AND STABILITY IN THE WORLD ECONOMY. . . .

The Expansion of Trade
Nontariff Barriers
The Trade Bill of 1969
The Developing Countries in the World Economy
The U.S. Trade Balance
International Capital Mobility and the Balance of Payments..
The Problem of International Equilibrium
International Adjustment
The Dollar and International Equilibrium

Page
90

90
92
93
93
97
99
100
101
104
107
110
Ill
112
113
118

118
119
120
122
124
126
131
133
140

APPENDIXES:

A. Unemployment and the Economy
B. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of
Economic Advisers During 1969
C. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, and
Production

143
157
171

List of Tables and Charts
Tables
1. Funds Raised in Credit Markets, Nonfinancial Sectors, 1968-69.
2. Changes in Deposits and Selected Nondeposit Sources of Bank
Funds, 1968-69
3. Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate
Business, 1968-69
4. Changes in Gross National Product and Components, 1968-69. .
5. Changes in Personal Income, Taxes, and Saving, 1967-69
6. Changes in Civilian Employment and Distribution of Change,
1965-69
7. Selected Unemployment Rates, 1961 and 1965-69




18

34
37
38
40
43
47
48

Tables
8. Increases in Average Gross Hourly Earnings of Private Nonagricultural Production or Nonsupervisory Workers Since
1960
..
9. Wage and Benefit Decisions, 1965-69
10. Changes in Implicit Price Deflators for GNP, by Sector, 196569
11. Changes in Current Dollar Costs and Profits Per Unit of Real
Output of Nonfinancial Corporations Since 1960
12. Changes in Wholesale and Consumer Prices, 1966-69
13. Gross National Product, 1969 and Projections for 1970-75
14. Projections of Federal Expenditures, National Income Accounts
Basis, 1970-75
15. U.S. Balance of Payments, 1960-69
16. International Investment Position of the United States, 1955,
1965, and 1968
Charts
1. Changes in the Money Supply and Federal Expenditures.....
2. Changes in GNP, Real GNP, and GNP Deflator
3. Changes in Federal Surplus (National Income Accounts Basis). .
4. Interest Rates
5. Unemployment Rate
6. Changes in Compensation, Productivity, Labor Costs, and
Prices (Private Nonfarm Sector)
7. Price Changes
8. Gross National Product, Actual and Potential
9. Net Family Formation
10. Housing Starts
11. Mortgage Yields and Dividend Rate of Federal Savings and
Loan Associations
12. Per Capita Personal Income of Farm and Nonfarm Population. .
13. U.S. Balance of International Payments




Page

50
50
51
53
54
79
80
127
131
28
30
32
36
49
52
55
85
88
89
103
105
129




CHAPTER 1

Economic Performance and Policy in 1969
THE GOALS OF STABILIZATION POLICY
T ^ H E AMERICAN ECONOMY began 1969 with production, incomes,
-*- and prices increasing rapidly from the momentum of earlier inflationary fiscal and monetary policies. As the year moved along, however,
the economy began to respond to the constraints of policies which had
been changed to combat inflation. The huge budget deficit had been closed
with the aid of a tax increase in mid-1968, and the new Administration
further tightened fiscal policy in 1969 by a sharp pruning of projected Federal outlays. Monetary policy also shifted its direction, becoming increasingly restrictive during the year.
This was not the ordinary problem of an economy that had veered momentarily toward excessive rates of expansion. It was the problem of
an economy already in its fourth year of severe inflationary pressure. The
momentum generated by 4 years of inflation was evident in widespread
pressures for wage and price increases and in continuing expectations of
more inflation. This momentum could not be stopped dead in its tracks
without serious consequences. The policies of fiscal and monetary restraint
followed in 1969 have reduced it, while at the same time they have laid
the ground for a return to price stability and sound economic growth.
Continuation of fiscal and monetary restraint should bring a deceleration
of inflation during 1970 and 1971. This will be an important step toward
price stability, but it will not mean that the goal has been reached. History
contains other instances in which inflation was slowed down or stopped
only to break out again as policies shifted too sharply toward expansion.
The Nation's goal should be more than just a year or two of declining rates
of inflation. This time we should try to reach and maintain price stability.
The longer run goal of continuing price stability would not be served by
a sharp or prolonged rise of unemployment. Such a development would be
an evil in itself. In addition, by forcing a sharp shift toward expansionary
policies, it would intensify the already difficult task of maintaining the
restraint necessary for a lasting victory over inflation.
But inflations have seldom ended without a temporary rise in unemployment. While we must direct our efforts to altering the historical pattern,
we cannot ignore the possibility that joblessness will rise in the period imme-




21

diately ahead. But we cannot avoid this problem by allowing the current
inflation to continue, for that would harden the expectations of inflation
and make subsequent policies to curb it more difficult and harsh. The
best hope of curbing inflation and restricting the rise in unemployment
to a relatively small and temporary increase rests with a policy of firm and
persistent restraint on the expansion in the demand for goods, services, and
labor.
Such a policy should ultimately produce high employment with much
less inflation than we have recently experienced. During the transition,
we may find both unemployment and inflation to be higher than would have
been desirable if the inflation had not been allowed to persist so long. This is
the price we must pay for having long pursued inflationary policies. Once
inflation has been set in motion, there is no way of correcting it without
some costs. The aim of policy is to keep the costs as low as possible.
Over the longer run, further progress in reducing unemployment and
getting as close to a stable price level as possible is dependent upon holding
aggregate demand to moderate and sustainable rates of growth. It will
require other measures as well. Public policies can help improve the
efficiency of labor markets by providing information, opportunities for
training, and assistance in relocation. Persistent effort in these and other
ways to make the economy more flexible and adaptable will contribute
to lower unemployment rates and to a more stable price level.
THE STRATEGY OF POLICY IN 1969
The current inflation was generated by the mounting budget deficits and
rapid monetary expansion that began in 1965 with the escalation of the
Vietnam War and the massive increases in Federal spending for domestic
programs. These developments stimulated demand for output and labor
at a pace which could not be met by growth in the labor force and other
productive resources. The resulting pressures caused prices to rise rapidly.
Any plan for arresting the inflation called fundamentally for arresting
the forces which were causing it. In addition, it was clear that slowing
down the inflation after it had gathered momentum would be more difficult
than taking the steps necessary to avoid the inflation initially.
Steps to end rising budget deficits and to slow down monetary expansion
had been taken in 1968. The Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of
June 1968 had helped to shift the budget from a deficit of $25 billion in
the fiscal year ended June 30, 1968, to a surplus estimated in January 1969
at $2.4 billion for the fiscal year 1969. Near the end of 1968, the Federal
Reserve had turned to a policy of more restrained monetary expansion.
Each of these moves, however, was only a beginning. Once they had finally
been taken, it was important that they remain in force long enough to
do the job. Yet the shift in the budget position to surplus had been achieved
with the help of a temporary tax surcharge which was scheduled to expire




22

on June 30, 1969. With continuing strong pressure for increased expenditures in fiscal year 1970, the danger of sliding back into a budget deficit
could not be ignored. Nor could it necessarily be assumed that the new and
more restrained monetary policy would continue as long as needed. In 1966
monetary tightness had contributed to a dampening of the economy and
of the inflation, but the economic slowdown led in turn to a shift back to
highly expansive policies in 1967 and to a resurgence of inflation. It was
commonly thought that this pattern might be repeated.
At the beginning of 1969, as earlier, there were disagreements among
economists about the relative roles of rising budget deficits and rapid monetary expansion in causing the inflation of 1965-68. On one view the rising
deficits were the driving force and they would have been enough to cause
substantially the inflation that was experienced, even if there had been much
less monetary expansion. On the other view the rapid monetary expansion
was the primary factor; with it there would have been substantial inflation
even with a stable budget policy, and without it there would have been
little inflation even with rising deficits. These different views led to different
emphases in policy prescriptions for 1969. Following the one theory the
critical matter was at least to stabilize the budget in its current position
of moderate surplus. According to the other theory a reduction of the rate
of monetary growth was the decisive way to slow down the inflation.
The Government could not prudently let the control of inflation depend
on the choice of one of these strategies to the neglect of the other. Many
uncertainties exist about the relative power of fiscal and monetary actions
taken separately. There is much less doubt about the power of fiscal and
monetary actions taken together. A reliable policy had to turn away from
both the rising deficits and the rapid monetary expansion.
DIRECT INFLUENCE ON WAGES AND PRICES
The Administration's plan of policy for 1969 did not include an attempt
to revive wage-price guideposts, such as those existing in 1962-66. The
results of our own experience and numerous trials of such policies in other
countries over the preceding 20 years did not justify confidence that such
efforts would help solve the inflation problem in 1969.
In their usual form these policies enunciate general standards of noninflationary price and wage behavior, coupled with appeals to labor and
business for compliance. The degree to which representatives of labor and
business have participated with government in defining standards and seeking compliance has varied from country to country. The sanctions invoked
in support of the standards are usually informal and have varied in their
severity and nature.
Experience with such policies in other countries has been remarkably
consistent. In some cases success in holding down wage settlements or price
increases has been achieved in particular industries. There is usually a period
in which these programs may have some overall deterrent efTect, though




23

evidence here is less certain. After an interval, however, there is a point at
which accumulating pressures make the programs ineffective.
American experience conformed to this pattern. In January 1962, the
Council of Economic Advisers promulgated a set of guideposts intended to
describe the course of wages and prices that would be consistent with general price stability and certain other objectives. The main element in the
statement of these guideposts was that hourly wages should rise in line with
the average long-term gain in output per man-hour. Prices should ordinarily
be stable; but in a particular industry they could rise if productivity rose
less than the average, and they should fall if productivity rose more than
the average. A number of exceptions were specified—and indeed these were
necessary—to meet requirements of equity and efficiency.
As originally put forth the guideposts were to serve a general educational
function of encouraging voluntary patterns of behavior that would be noninflationary. There was no suggestion that the Government would apply
them in particular cases or try to enforce them. But it was natural to question whether actions in particular cases conformed to the guideposts, and the
Government felt it necessary to comment on the justification for these actions.
Once this threshold had been crossed, the Government also became involved
in attempting to insure compliance in particular cases where it was considered necessary. Usually the attempt consisted of discussions with the persons involved. Sometimes there were public exchanges of charges and
countercharges. In some cases the Government relied upon its power as
purchaser, regulator, and law-enforcer to encourage compliance.
With the upsurge of inflation and inflationary pressure after mid-1965,
the difficulty of reconciling the guideposts with market forces became more
intense. Labor and business were being asked to act as if prices were not
rising, when in fact they were- As it became evident that steps necessary to
keep prices from rising were not being taken, it also became more obviously
unrealistic and inequitable to make these requests in specific cases. By the fall
of 1966 the policy was widely recognized to be unworkable, and it was allowed to fade away. In subsequent years, there were only episodic actions
with specific companies regarding prices.
Whether the policy changed the overall behavior of the price level before
it ran into intense inflation is uncertain. These were years of relative price
stability. But they were also years of considerable slack in the economy, relatively high unemployment, and stable or declining farm prices. That is, they
were years in which market conditions favored price stability. Econometric studies attempting to isolate a further contribution that guideposts
might have made to price stability have produced uncertain results. The
findings of some studies are consistent with the view that the guideposts may
have had some effect in reducing the increase of the price level; other studies
do not support this conclusion.
Whatever the uncertainties about this earlier period, the guidepost policy
clearly did not work once the economy ran into strong and serious pressures




24

of inflationary demand. By that time the question was not whether guideposts would have a measurable influence on the rate of inflation. It was
whether they had any credibility and viability at all. The evidence is that
they did not. The conspicuous cases in which guidepost policy could exercise
some influence were too few and were overrun by the general tide of inflation
in the economy as a whole.
The Administration in 1969 recognized that the speed of the disinflationary process would depend in part upon how quickly business and labor
became convinced that the economic climate was changing. If business and
labor continued to expect demand and prices to rise rapidly, and if they
pushed up wages and prices in anticipation, disinflation would come slowly
and more painfully. This meant that the public's understanding of the determination to check inflation, of the policies being pursued and of the progress being made would be important to success. There would be room and
need for efforts to inform the public. But first there would have to be evidence that the new policies were actually working.
In the exercise of its ordinary functions the Government has a considerable influence on conditions of demand and supply and consequently
on prices in particular markets. It would be important for the Government
to make sure that its influence did not unnecessarily contribute to inflation in
those markets, and beyond that to try to correct malfunctions in particular
markets which might aggravate the consequences of the general inflation.
THE EXPECTED CHAIN FROM POLICY TO RESULTS
As the process was viewed at the beginning of 1969, the fiscal and monetary restraint that was the core of anti-inflation policy would slow the rate
of inflation through a series of steps which can ,be summarized as follows:
A Slowdown in the Growth of Total Spending
The growth in aggregate spending for goods and services as measured
by gross national product, which was 9 percent from 1967 to 1968, would
be reduced. The Federal Government's own purchases would not rise so
fast, nor would its payments to State and local governments and to individuals—payments which these sectors ordinarily use to make their own purchases. By avoiding the tax reduction scheduled for midyear, the Government would refrain from boosting private after-tax income and consequently
from stimulating private spending.
Monetary restraint and the resulting scarcity and high cost of credit would
slow down spending in various ways. Expenditures financed by borrowing—
for new houses, for State and local construction projects, for business investment, and for consumers' durables—would be most directly affected. In
addition, money balances would decline in relation to rising incomes and
transactions, and the market value of other assets would be depressed because of higher interest rates. This would dampen the inclination of businesses and consumers to spend. These effects of monetary restraint on
spending would not be immediate or follow a precise formula based on the
amount of the restraint, but they would come if the restraint continued.




25

A Decline in the Rate of Growth of Production
The slowdown in the growth of purchases would mean a slowdown in
the growth of sales; businesses cannot sell what others do not buy. Some
businesses might respond to a decline in the growth of sales by allowing
inventories to accumulate rather than by cutting their planned output, but
this could only be a temporary reaction. Others might respond to a slowdown in the growth of sales by cutting prices in an attempt to keep volume
up. But this was not likely to be the first response in 1969. Having already
experienced several years of rapidly rising demand, costs, and prices, businesses would expect more of the same, and for the most part they would
keep their own prices up and rising.
The most general and important response of business to a slowdown of
sales would be a slowdown in the rate at which production was increasing.
Initially this would involve a decline in the rate of growth and possibly
some temporary decline in production itself. An absolute decline in output,
however, would not be a necessary aspect of the disinflationary process. In
a growing economy the labor force is increasing, new productive equipment
is being added, new technology is being introduced, and the basic trend of
labor productivity is rising; this means that the potential output of the
economy also grows. Therefore, even though output is still rising absolutely,
a slowdown in the rate of growth of output reduces actual production
relative to its potential and is an anti-inflationary force. This is a part of the
process that eventually builds up those back pressures which are essential
to the development of a new stability in the level of costs and prices.
A Decline in Profits Per Unit
A deceleration in the rate of growth in real output would adversely affect
productivity in the short run. The movement of fixed costs per unit of output would thus be less favorable for a time. After a sustained period of expansion and labor shortages, employers would tend to maintain work forces,
and payrolls would tend to be fixed. The deterioration in productivity and
increased costs per unit of output would reduce profits per unit. While even
higher prices might consequently seem necessary, and while in many cases
they might be posted, market conditions would make it difficult for such
prices to hold, and the major effect would be heavier pressure on businesses
to begin actions to reduce costs. The need to improve productivity and
thereby pare unit labor costs would make labor "hoarding" more costly.
Employment at overtime would diminish and layoffs would become more
common.
A Slowdown in Wage Increases
As profits per unit weakened, employers would become more resistant to
granting wage increases. At the same time, a softening labor market would
lessen workers' insistence on large wage increases as a condition for employment, since they could not be so sure of finding another job quickly if they




26

left a current one or rejected a new offer. Moreover, if business profits were
less favorable, a major rationale for heavy wage demands would be removed.
As a consequence, the average rate of wage increase would ultimately begin
to diminish. However, in view of the momentum of past increases in wages
and the cost of living, this could not be expected to happen quickly. Nor
could it be expected to happen evenly in all sectors.
A Slowdown in Price Increases
While, as already indicated, the unfavorable development in profits would
create some incentive to mark up prices, more sluggish market conditions
would encourage businesses to pursue temperate pricing policies, especially
as this influence began to be reinforced by a slowdown in the rise of wage
rates and unit labor costs. The reductions in wage and price increases would
tend to reinforce each other. The longer price increases moderated, the
weaker would become the expectation of further inflation. In turn, business
and labor would be increasingly inclined to respond to the waning inflation
by making appropriate price and wage adjustments, in preference to accepting a lower volume of production and less employment. With this change
the economy would be on the road to regaining full employment without
setting off another round of inflation.
At the beginning of 1969 no one knew how much of this process might
occur during the year. As this Council indicated in its testimony before the
Joint Economic Committee in February 1969, the growth of demand
would be slowed only a little in the first half of the year, because demand
was strong at the outset and the turn to monetary restraint just before the
year opened would not have had much time to work. A more marked slowdown of demand was likely for the second half. At first almost all of the
slack in demand would probably be taken up by a slowdown of production.
Price and cost trends at the beginning of the year were too strong to be
deflected by the moderate deceleration expected in the first half. But it
could be expected that after midyear the slower growth of real output and
of employment would create sufficient excess in the supply of products
and labor to begin to have visible effects on price and wage increases. By
the end of the year the rate of inflation would be lower than at the beginning.
The effects to that point might not be great. Still, the economy would
have crossed the threshold from a state of accelerating inflation to one of
decelerating inflation, and we could count on making further progress.
THE RECORD IN 1969
Fiscal and monetary policies in 1969 followed the general course that
seemed desirable at the beginning of the year. In general the economy
responded to those policies by moving through some of the stages just outlined—more slowly than was expected at the beginning of 1969 but in a




27

manner that confirmed the initial view of the necessary stages in the process.
The policy and economic developments of the year are summarized in the
next few pages after which the main elements in the story are told in greater
detail.
The contribution of fiscal policy to disinflation was a slowdown in the
growth of Federal spending and the maintenance of a moderate budget surplus. During calendar 1969 Federal expenditures (as measured in the national income accounts) increased by about $9 billion as compared with
about $20 billion a year in the 3 preceding years; and the budget surplus
amounted to almost $10 billion for the year as compared with a deficit of
$5 billion in 1968. Monetary policy reduced the rate of growth of the money
supply (demand deposits and currency) from 7.2 percent in 1968 to 2.5
percent in 1969. The reduction occurred in successive steps that brought
the rate of growth close to zero in the fourth quarter (Chart 1).
Chart 1

Changes in the Money Supply
and Federal Expenditures
PERCENTAGE CHANGE, ANNUAL RATEJ/

15
MONEY SUPPLY
(Currency and Demand Deposits)

10 -

til

1 iI 1I1
1

-5
1965

1966

1967

1968

1967

1968

1969

CHANGE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, ANNUAL RATEi/

15
FEDERAL EXPENDITURES
(National Income Accounts Basis)

10

5

VA
1965

\Y7i [73

1966

1969

-I/BASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED QUARTERLY AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES.
i/sEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
SOURCES: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.




28

Chart 2

Changes in GNP, Real GNP,
and GNP Deflator
PERCENTAGE CHANGE (ANNUAL RATE)

1967

1968

1969

NOTE: BASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

As the year progressed, it became more and more likely that these developments which led to accelerating inflation were transitory. Profits reported
by corporations declined after the middle of the year. Also, the slower growth
of total output—including an actual decline of industrial production—began
to be translated into slower growth of employment and reduction of working
hours. This combination of conditions marked a necessary step toward a
subsequent decline in the rate of inflation.
FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS
The operating objective of fiscal policy in 1969, initially and throughout
the year, was to keep a budget surplus at least as large as had been achieved




30

by the Revenue and Expenditure Control Act of 1968—in the neighborhood
of $3 billion to $5 billion. The first step in the process of fiscal control was a
review of the budget for fiscal 1970 that the outgoing Administration had
submitted. A program-by-program examination indicated that $4.0 billion
could be cut from the 1970 totals. Of this amount, $1.1 billion would come
from reducing defense outlays, $1.0 billion from deferring increases in Social
Security benefits, and $1.9 billion from cuts in a wide range of other Federal
programs. As a result, the Administration announced in April its intention
to hold fiscal 1970 expenditures to $192.9 billion.
During 1969 the necessary costs of certain "uncontrollable" items, such
as interest on the debt, Medicare, public assistance, civil service retirement,
and veterans benefits increased beyond the earlier estimates. At several points
Congressional action also increased expenditures. In order to hold to the
$192.9 billion total for fiscal year 1970, the Administration therefore
announced further cuts in mid-September amounting to $3.5 billion, of
which $3.0 billion was in the defense program.
Adherence to the $192.9 billion ceiling required not only making these
gross reductions of $7.5 billion in existing programs but also firmly resisting
proposals, originating in Congress, that would have required spending
many billions of dollars for new programs or program expansions. By the
beginning of 1970 it was clear that the ceiling could not be maintained for
the entire fiscal year. For calendar year 1969, however, the tight restraint
on expenditures allowed fiscal policy to contribute to the fight against
inflation.
The initial review of the budget also revealed that, in order to avoid an
abrupt shift from surplus to deficit, it would be necessary to extend the 10percent income tax surcharge, scheduled to expire on June 30, 1969, and to
defer the scheduled reduction of the excise taxes on automobiles and telephone services. Accordingly, in March the President recommended their retention, with the 10-percent surcharge to continue until June 30, 1970.
Subsequent consideration of the longer-range issues led the Administration
to conclude that the 7-percent tax credit enacted in 1962 to stimulate business investment should be repealed. The national priorities of the 1970's
did not require or justify this special incentive.
Once the decision was made to ask for repeal of the investment credit, the
repeal had to be effective immediately, in order to minimize disruptions from
heavy advance order placements. Thus, although the repeal served a longrun objective, there would be some revenue increase in the short run,
and therefore a gradual phasing out of the tax surcharge was possible.
Consequently, on April 21, when the Administration asked for repeal of the
investment credit, it also recommended that the surcharge rate be reduced
to 5 percent on January 1, 1970, and then allowed to expire on June 30.
The extension of the surcharge was the subject of prolonged debate in
Congress. Extension for the last 6 months of 1969 was not signed into law




until August 7, and extension for the first 6 months of 1970, at the 5-percent
rate, did not become law until December 30. Continued uncertainty about
tax prospects, which raised doubts about how determined the fight against
inflation was going to be, contributed to the persistence of an inflationary
psychology during the year.
As already indicated, the growth in Federal expenditures slowed down substantially in 1969. The Federal pay raise that went into effect on July 1,
1969, accounted for about one-third of the year's increase. Federal purchases
of goods and services, including the pay raise, increased by approximately
$1 billion from the end of 1968 to the end of 1969. All other Federal expenditures combined, however—Social Security and other transfers, grants to
States and localities, net interest paid, and subsidies—continued their upward trend, though at a somewhat more moderate pace. Among these, net
interest paid rose because of sharply higher interest rates.
On the revenue side, the increase in Social Security tax rates on January 1,
1969, from 8.8 to 9.6 percent, added about $3 billion to collections in 1969.
During the year other tax rates were stable, except that the elimination of

Chart 3

Changes in Federal Surplus
National Income Accounts Basis
CHANGE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

20

15 -

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15
1965

1966

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.




1967

1968

1969

the investment tax credit effective April 21, 1969, increased total tax liabilities for calendar 1969 by $0.9 billion; only the corporation share of this,
$0.5 billion, is counted as Federal receipts within calendar 1969 in the
national income accounts. Only a small part of eligible investment made in
1969 lost the advantage of the tax credit because of the rather long leadtime
between order placement and expenditures. Total Federal receipts (as
measured in the national income accounts) rose by more than $15 billion
from the fourth quarter of 1968 to the fourth quarter of 1969.
The reported figures distort the pattern of receipts and consequently of
the budget surplus during the year, because the insufficient withholding of
personal income tax payments in 1968 increased final settlements in the
first half of 1969. A correction for the bunching of these payments would
show that the surplus stayed within a fairly narrow range during the year.
(Year-to-year changes in the surplus are shown in Chart 3.)
MONETARY RESTRAINT
Last February, Chairman Martin described the goal of Federal Reserve
policy as being "to disinflate without deflating." It was difficult to tell then,
or later in the year, however, what rate of growth in the money supply would
in fact achieve this general goal. Certainly it was necessary that the money
supply grow more slowly than the 7.2-percent increase of 1968. In the circumstances of 1969, with interest rates high and rising and with strong and
spreading expectations of inflation, businesses and families would be likely
to hold declining money balances in relation to their income. Therefore, to
bring about even a moderate slowdown in demand for goods and services
might require a very low rate of monetary growth—lower than would be
consistent with prosperity in a more stable economy. Past experience, however, threw little light on the requirements of this transitional period, and
policy had to be tentative and watchful.
During the first half of 1969 the growth of the money supply fell to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.4 percent. (Before revisions in the data
were made in late summer, the first half growth had appeared to be
lower.) For the second half the policy became even more restrictive, and
growth in the money supply was only 0.7 percent at an annual rate
(Chart 1). For the year as a whole, time and savings deposits at commercial banks declined by 5.2 percent, as market interest rates rose well above
the ceiling rates that banks could pay on these deposits and thus diverted
funds to market securities.
The Federal Reserve restricted monetary growth primarily by reducing
the expansion of its monetary liabilities. Although currency outside banks
expanded during 1969 by 6.0 percent, almost as much as the 7.4 percent
expansion in 1968, total reserves of commercial banks (adjusted for changes
in reserve requirements) were practically constant for 1969, whereas they
had increased 7.8 percent for 1968. Other restrictive steps were also taken




33

in April. The discount rate on loans to member banks secured by U.S.
obligations or other eligible paper was raised from 5 / 2 to 6 percent, and
reserve requirements on demand deposits at all member banks were raised
one-half of a percentage point.
THE FLOW OF CREDIT
One way in which the monetary restraint was transmitted to the economy
was through its effect on the supply of credit. Banks were less able to expand
credit through increases in the money supply. Also, as the year went on, the
combination of continued slow growth of money and rising transactions
and income lessened the inclination of individuals and businesses to reduce
TABLE 1.—Funds raised in credit markets, nonfinancial sectors, 1968—69
[Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1969

1968

Borrowing sector

III

96.3

88.8

100.9

-9.6

-5.7

-9.2

14.8

104.8

101.9

97.9

86.1

4.1

5.2

-9.6

.3

88.3

100.7

96.7

107.5

85.8

5.5
35.6
29.1

12.8
39.9
33.0

14.3
48.7
34.7

12.1
47.9
30.9

11.8
54.4
33.1

7.4
45.1
28.1

15.5

14.2

14.2

15.6

15.6

17.1

15.6

4.4

2.0

2.6

2.9

5.7

8.2

5.2

II

94.2

81.5

117.7

-5.3

-16.2

26.4

99.5

97.7

91.2

U.S. Government net of cash balance

25.5

25.5

2.9

Other sectors

74.0

72.2

8.2
32.0
29.4

Total funds raised.
Change in U.S. Government cash balance outside Federal Reserve
Net funds raised

State and local governmentsBusiness
Households
Home mortgages.
Foreign

1

II

III

1

IV
95.2

Note.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

their money balances further in order to acquire other financial assets.
Whereas earlier the restraint on bank lending could be made up by more
borrowing from other lenders who started the year with ample liquidity,
this solution became more difficult as the year progressed. The tightening
of credit supplies affected borrowing on the open market as well as through
financial intermediaries. As a result, by the third quarter of 1969 total
funds raised in credit markets, net of changes in Treasury cash at commercial
banks, were nearly 20 percent less, seasonally adjusted, than in the fourth
quarter of 1968 (Table 1). Most of this decline came in the third quarter.
A dramatic turnabout was made, of course, by the Federal Government.
On a seasonally adjusted net basis, it changed from a heavy borrower in the
first half of 1968 to a moderate borrower through the first quarter of 1969,
then to a substantial lender in the second quarter; in the third quarter it
borrowed only a small amount on a net basis. As a result, even though the
net funds raised by all sectors declined in the second quarter of 1969, the
net funds raised by borrowers other than the Federal Government actually




34

increased. In the third quarter, however, when the Federal Government
was not active in the market on a net basis, borrowing of all other sectors
declined and, consequently, total net funds obtained fell sharply.
This restraint in the amount of credit being supplied occurred in
the face of an unusually strong private demand for credit. In addition to
the strong demand which ordinarily accompanies a high level of economic
activity, the expectation of more inflation acted as a further stimulus
to borrowing. The fact that inflation had been accelerating since
1965 intensified expectations of future price increases. Individuals and
businesses, seeing an opportunity to invest in real assets that would be expected to increase in money value with inflation, were eager to borrow in
the expectation of repaying with dollars of reduced purchasing power. They
were willing to pay high interest rates because they believed that inflation
would substantially reduce the real cost of those rates. On a loan made
at the beginning of a year at an 8-percent interest rate and repaid at the
end of a year in which prices have risen by 4 percent, the return on the loan
in real purchasing power is, of course, about 4 percent.
In these circumstances interest rates would have risen even if the money
supply had continued to rise rapidly, as happened in 1968. But the curtailment of monetary expansion in 1969, and the curtailment of the supply of
credit that accompanied it, temporarily raised interest rates even more.
Until the slowdown of monetary expansion could reduce economic expansion and lessen the expectation of inflation, an extraordinary demand for
credit would collide with a more restricted supply, and interest rates would
soar.
In fact interest rates did soar in 1969 (Chart 4). By the end of 1969, most
interest rates had climbed around 4 percentage points above their 1965 level.
One must consult records for the Civil War and earlier to find comparable
interest rates. And the steepness of the advance, on long-term as well as
short-term securities, may well have been unprecedented.
The high interest rates of 1969 substantially altered financial flows, in
large part because legal ceilings put some borrowers at a disadvantage and
shunted funds to unrestricted parts of the market. Ceilings on deposit interest rates were particularly important. The maximum interest rates that
banks could pay on time and savings accounts and on certificates of deposit
had not been changed since April 1968, while market interest rates increased
sharply. As a result, commercial banks could not compete, and large
certificates of deposit outstanding fell from $22.8 billion at the end of 1968
to $14.7 billion at the end of June, and to $10.8 billion at year-end 1969.
(The ceiling rates were adjusted upward in January 1970.)
The two other financial institutions subject to deposit-rate ceilings,
mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations, also felt the competition for funds. They experienced heavy withdrawals, and their net growth
declined substantially. Time and savings deposits which the public held with




35

Chart 4

Interest Rates
PERCENT PER ANNUM

12
SHORT-TERM

10

PRIME COMMERCIAL
PAPER

FEDERAL RESERVE
DISCOUNT RATE
3-MONTH TREASURY BILLS
(New Issues)

I
1964

I

I ,',,,, I
1966

1965

I,

lll

, | l l l l . l | , ., ,, I

1967

1968

1969

12
LONG-TERM

10

FHA NEW HOME
MORTGAGES

CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
(New Issues)

HIGH-GRADE MUNICIPAL BONDS
(New Issues)
U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS

0

,I

^
1964

1
1965

|,
1966

,, , 1
1967

| , , n , 1, ,, » ,| , ,
1968

1969

SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM, FEDERAL
HOUSING ADMINISTRATION, MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION.




all deposit-type financial institutions grew by $33.1 billion in 1968 but declined by $20.5 billion at an annual rate during the third quarter of 1969.
Life insurance companies also faced heavy demands for automatic policy
loans, since the standard 5-percent rate on such loans became a bargain as
other interest rates rose.
TABLE 2.—Changes in deposits and selected nondeposit sources of bank funds, 1968-69
[Billions of dollars]
Change from preceding period
Selected source of bank funds

1969, not seasonally adjusted
1968

1969

1
Commercial bank time and savings deposits
Negotiable certificates of deposit _
Other time and savings deposits

_

-10.8

-0.4

-2.6

-6.3

-1.5

-12.0
1.2

-4.0
3.6

-3.5
.9

-3.6
-2.7

-.9
-.6

0)

.

IV

2.8
19.4

1.8
_

III

22.2

Selected nondeposit sources of bank funds
Euro-dollar borrowing3
Direct foreign borrowing4
Commercial paper 5
LoanRPV

II

. . .

\

0)

8

13.0
7.0

1.7
4.2
.2

210.2

3.6
2 1.0
21.2
2.8

2.2

3.6

.6

1.1

-1.3

.1

.5
1.6

1.4
-.3

1 Not available.
2 Change during first half of 1969.
s Bank liabilities to foreign branches.
* Euro-dollars borrowed directly or through brokers and dealers, and liabilities to banks' own branches in U.S. territories and possessions.
5
Paper issued by a bank holding company, affiliate, or subsidiary.
« Loans or participations in pools of loans sold under repurchase agreements to other than banks and other than
affiliates or subsidiaries.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Commercial banks were able to offset deposit withdrawals at first by
tapping other sources of funds. They borrowed more heavily in the Eurodollar market, negotiated repurchase agreements of their loans with corporations, and expanded commercial paper issued by subsidiaries and affiliates.
In total, as shown in Table 2, banks raised about $10.2 billion by these
devices during the first half of 1969.
Later in the year the Federal Reserve took steps to make the use of these
sources more expensive to banks. Most repurchase agreements had to be
treated like deposits after August 27 and were thus subjected to reserve
requirements and interest-rate ceilings. In effect, this prohibited their further
use. Euro-dollar borrowings above May levels were also subjected to reserve
requirements beginning in September. Banks did not raise additional
funds from these sources after midyear. Commercial paper sales continued
to grow, however, and provided $3.0 billion more in the second half.
(Recent proposals, not yet effective, would bring these sales under either
reserve requirements or interest rate ceilings, or both.) To meet heavy
demands for loans, commercial banks also sold U.S. and municipal securities,
depressing the bond market, and they traded actively in the Federal
funds market. With time deposits declining and nondeposit sources of
funds quite costly, large commercial banks made the terms of their lend-




37

ing more restrictive, and the expansion of business loans slowed significantly
after midyear.
The funds withdrawn from or not placed in banks or other financial
institutions were not lost to the supply of credit. Funds returned by way
of the open market. This can be seen in the shift in the composition of assets acquired by households and nonfinancial businesses. Households accumulated only $2.1 billion in money and savings deposits at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate during the third quarter of 1969, far below
usual amounts, and diverted their savings increasingly into market instruments because of the much higher yields. They invested at an annual rate of
$29.1 billion in all credit market instruments in the third quarter of 1969,
well above any quarterly rate in recent years. Most of this was accounted
for by the purchase of $27.4 billion of U.S. Government and agency securities. Nonfinancial corporations withdrew funds from time deposits at an
annual rate of $12.3 billion in the third quarter of 1969 and purchased $13.3
billion (annual rate) of commercial paper.
TABLE

3.—Sources and uses of funds, nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business, 1968—69
[Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rates]
1969

1968
Source or use of funds
1

Internal funds
Credit market instruments

III

IV

1

109.9

Sources, total

II
101.3

110.5

118.9

118.0

114.0

108.6

62.9
38.7

62.7
43.6

62.9
36.2

II

III

59.1
25.7

63.9
26.6

65.3
31.1

64.1
40.7

Stocks
Bonds and mortgages
Bank loans ___
Other loans .

1.3
16.4
3.7
4.4

- 6
18.3
6.7
2.2

-1.9
18.0
9.8
5.1

-2.2
22.2
18.2
2.6

.1
20.1
12.7
5.9

2.4
16.1
12.6
12.5

1.6
15.7
7.8
11.1

Trade debt and tax liability .
Other liabilities

18.9
6.2

2.9
7.9

6.0
8.1

8.3
5.8

8.4
8.0

4.6
3.1

7.8
1.7

102.7

93 4

104.7

112.4

111.6

107.3

103.6

13.7
16.9
1.4

8.4
10.4
-2.3

13.5
18.5
-3.5

4.5
19.6
4.6

8.0
15.7
3.2

1.8
15.6
4.1

-6.1
17.1
2.9

70.7

76.9

76.2

83.7

84.7

85.8

89.7

7.2

8.1

5.7

6.5

6.4

6.7

5.0

_ .

Uses, total
Acquisition of financial assets:
Liquid assets
Consumer and trade credit
Other assets . _ _
Capital expendituresDiscrepancy (sources less uses) __

___

. _

Note.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Businesses which could borrow on the open market were able to meet
their credit needs despite this shift in fund flows from financial intermediaries
to credit market instruments. Although the third quarter of 1969 saw a
decline in the funds raised by businesses in credit markets compared with
the second quarter, the total of funds raised represented an annual rate
higher than during most of 1968. Businesses expanded capital expenditures
steadily during the first 3 quarters of 1969 despite little increase in the
generation of funds internally and a decline in their borrowing from banks




38

(Table 3). They made up the difference in large part by selling liquid
assets. In the third quarter, nonfinancial corporations sold liquid assets at
an annual rate of $6.1 billion, whereas these corporations are typically net
purchasers of liquid assets, often by substantial amounts.
For the housing sector the job of tapping the open market to find the
funds no longer available through private financial intermediaries fell upon
federally sponsored agencies, chiefly the Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Banks. These agencies stepped up their
support of the mortgage market substantially. Their annual rate of support
for residential and farm mortgages, furnished either directly by purchases
of mortgages or indirectly through loans to savings and loan associations,
increased from $3.0 billion in all of 1968 to a $10.3 billion annual rate in the
third quarter of 1969. This represented 47 percent of the total supply of
noncommercial mortgages, as compared with 14 percent in 1968. Despite
this increased assistance, the growth of total mortgage credit declined in
the fourth quarter.
The support of mortgages by federally sponsored agencies was financed
by issuing securities, which competed with other financial assets and to some
extent depleted private sources supplying the mortgage market. Total issues
of sponsored Federal credit agencies, made mainly for mortgages, rose from
$3.2 billion in 1968 to a $12.3 billion annual rate in the third quarter of 1969.
The largest and earliest decline in net funds raised outside of the Federal
Government was experienced by State and local governments. By the third
quarter their acquisition of credit was one-fourth below the 1968 rate. Many
States and localities were prevented from borrowing in 1969 by legal
ceilings on the interest rates they could pay. Also, during parts of the year
the market was disturbed by uncertainty about possible changes in the
tax status of State and local securities in addition to heavy selling of these
securities by commercial banks.
THE DEMAND FOR OUTPUT
The policies of fiscal and monetary restraint and the associated credit
stringency, described earlier, affected the behavior of the economy by
slowing down the total demand for output.
Total expenditure for goods and services (gross national product or
GNP) rose $67 billion from 1968 to 1969, when it reached $932 billion.
This was an increase of 7.7 percent as compared with the 9.1 percent rise
from 1967 to 1968 (Table 4).
A major factor in the slower growth of spending was the slower increase
of Federal purchases, mainly for defense. In fact, GNP other than Federal
purchases rose as much in 1969 as in the preceding year. The most
marked shift within the non-Federal total was the much larger increase in
business fixed investment and the much smaller increase in residential
construction than had occurred in the preceding year. These movements
were at least partly related. The large absorption of funds to finance business




39

TABLE 4.—Changes in gross national product and components, 1968—69
[Billions of dollars]

Change from preceding period
Component
1968

19691

1969,< easonally adjusted annual
rates
1

Gross national product

II

III
18.0

IV i

72.2

66.6

16.2

16.1

8.8

2.5

-.3

-1.0

2.6

-.5

63.4

64.1

16.5

17.1

15.4

10.8

State and local government purchases.

11.4

12.0

3.7

3.8

1.5

2.4

Fixed investment

10.4

12.5

5.2

1.9

2.0

2.0

5.1
5.2

10.5
2.0

3.8
1.4

2.5
-.6

3.3
-1.3

1.9
.2

Personal consumption expenditures.

44.3

39.4

11.3

10.8

7.0

9.4

Net exports of goods and services._.

-2.7

-.4

.3

.1

1.1

-.1

-.1

.7

-3.9

.3

3.8

-2.9

Federal Government purchases
Non-Federal purchases

Nonresidential
Residential structures..

Change in business inventories

10.3

1

Preliminary.
Note.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

investment, together with tightening monetary conditions, meant that less
funds were available to finance residential construction. Monetary restraint
also had some effect on State and local government purchases, which nonetheless continued to rise at a much higher rate than GNP.
The main categories of GNP other than Federal purchases and net
exports are reviewed below. Exports and imports are discussed in Chapter 5.
Fixed Investment by Business
Business demand for plant and equipment was strong throughout 1969
and offered stubborn resistance to restraint even though the rate of
expansion moderated within the year. The 12-percent increase in investment over that of 1968 was the eighth annual advance in a row, marking
the longest sustained increase since before World War I. However, businessmen spent less than they had anticipated in the February 1969 CommerceSEC annual survey of investment plans.
The rise in investment during 1969 was an extension of a recovery that
started haltingly in late 1967 and early 1968 but gathered momentum from
the upsurge in sales and profits in the first half of 1968. The surtax on corporations resulting from the passage of the tax increase in mid-1968 did not
seem to have much impact on the developing investment expansion, perhaps in part because the tax rise was small and was expected to be temporary. During the second half of 1968, the financing of these programs was
facilitated when the monetary authorities shifted to an easier policy and the
Federal deficit declined sharply, making additional funds available for the




40

private sector. At the end of 1968 businessmen projected for the first half of
1969 one of the largest half-year increases ever recorded in the CommerceSEC survey.
Several influences that should have inhibited business investment emerged
in 1969, although at best they served only to slow down the increase in the
second half. They included the shift to monetary restraint and the rapid rise
in interest costs; the tapering in the expansion of demand and output,
and the emergence of excess plant capacity in a number of industries; the
decline in book profits after the second quarter; and the proposed repeal
of the investment tax credit announced on April 21, 1969, although this
move could not have greatly affected spending until late in the year because
of the sizable backlog of equipment orders that existed in mid-April. In any
event, speculation that the termination of the investment tax credit might be
in the Administration's proposals led to an upsurge in order placements
immediately prior to April 21, as businessmen acted to take advantage of the
credit while it was still allowed.
Although their spending fell somewhat short of expectations in the first
half of the year, businessmen forged ahead with their investment programs
as 1969 progressed. New appropriations by manufacturers and new projects
started by manufacturers and public utilities rose through the third quarter.
And at the end of 1969, businessmen reporting in the Commerce-SEC survey
were once again projecting a substantial increase in expenditures in the
coming year.
The industrial composition of investment provides a clue to the strength of
business investment. Over the past few years the demand for capital goods by
electric and gas utilities and telephone companies has been exceptionally
strong. In contrast to other groups, investment in these industries has increased steadily and substantially each year. Several successive years of
sharply rising demand have strained facilities, and the service failures that
have appeared in particular areas have accentuated the need for additional
capacity. High interest rates have not seriously deterred these industries
from investment because they must meet demands for service and because
the regulatory authorities permit such cost increases to be reflected in higher
rates. Actual spending by these firms rose sharply in 1969, and their planned
spending is a major source of strength in the near-term investment outlook.
Housing
Housing in 1969 showed the effects of disrupted capital markets and
high interest rates. Private nonfarm housing starts, at about 1.45 million
units for the year as a whole, were unchanged from 1968, but they declined
irregularly from an early 1969 peak. Expenditures for the full year were 6^4
percent greater than in 1968, but the increase was due almost entirely to
higher prices. During the year, private housing outlays declined 6.7 percent
(annual rate) from the first to the fourth quarter, and this decline was a
major reason for the dampening in the rise of aggregate demand.




41

Homebuilding never did recover fully from the effects of the credit
stringency of 1966. The housing upturn in 1967 came to a temporary halt
in the first half of 1968 because of rising interest rates. Since housing starts
from 1966 to 1968 fell considerably below the number needed to satisfy the
requirements created by new households and the replacement of obsolete
units, a substantial backlog in demand built up. Vacancy rates continued to
be low, prices for new and existing homes recorded sharp increases, and rents
rose at an accelerated rate.
In the second half of 1968, the somewhat easier credit market conditions
that followed enactment of the surtax led to a pronounced pickup in private
nonfarm starts. From a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.4 million units in
the second quarter of 1968 they rose to 1.7 million in the first quarter of
1969. However, this upsurge in starts was also short lived. The slower monetary growth near the beginning of 1969 was followed by a further rise in
what were already high interest rates. Some lending institutions shifted from
mortgages to more lucrative investments, and most experienced much less
favorable savings flows. The further sharp tightening by the monetary
authorities after mid-1969 hampered housing. As was indicated earlier, the
thrift institutions, which are important in mortgage financing, were handicapped in their attempt to compete for savings. These institutions experienced large outflows of savings because depositors sought the higher yields
available on market securities. After starts had fallen to a 1.5 million unit
rate in the second quarter, they declined to 1.4 million units in the third and
1.3 million in the fourth.
Partly in an effort to support homebuilding, the Administration took
several steps to alter supply and demand conditions in ways that would curb
inflationary trends in construction (including the homebuilding industry).
Early in the year, lumber and plywood prices rose sharply as a result of tight
supply conditions and the expectation of further tightness. The Government
curtailed its own purchases and initiated measures to increase the supply of
timber from the national forests. These actions played a part in the sharp
retreat of lumber and plywood prices from their speculative peaks.
Increases in construction wage rates were very pronounced in 1969, with
collective bargaining agreements commonly calling for rises in excess of 12
percent per year for 2 or 3 years. These increases and the consequent advances in costs made it even more difficult to sustain an already weak residential construction industry. Moreover, building such large wage increases
into costs for future years raised the danger that the entire construction industry would be left stranded by excessive costs when inflation abated. There
was also concern that the exceptional wage increases in this industry would
set an example that might be followed in other industries.
On September 4, the President announced a program to attack the inflationary aspects of construction wage settlements.
1. The Federal Government would cut new contracts for direct Federal
construction by 75 percent, with the cut to continue until conditions eased




42

in the economy or in the construction industry. If that limitation were to
remain in effect through fiscal 1970, it would reduce contract awards by $1.8
billion.
2. State and local governments were requested to cut their new construction contracts voluntarily. If not enough voluntary restraint was forthcoming,
the Administration would consider a reduction in Federal grants for construction.
3. Private business was requested to cooperate in restricting nonresidential construction.
4. The Departments of Labor and of Health, Education, and Welfare were
directed to apply more of their manpower training programs to increasing
the number of skilled construction workers.
5. A Cabinet Committee on Construction, headed by the Chairman of the
Council of Economic Advisers, was established to develop long- and shortrange programs for analyzing problems in the construction industry.
On September 22, the President established a tripartite Construction Industry Collective Bargaining Commission to consider solutions to a number
of labor-management and manpower problems in the industry, including
productivity, seasonally, settlement of disputes, and the training of labor.
Consumer Income and Spending
Personal income rose $59 billion, or 8.6 percent, from 1968 to 1969 (Table
5). There were large increases in payrolls and incomes from property, and
still larger percentage rises in transfer payments (such as payments for Social
Security, Medicare, and veterans benefits).
Personal taxes rose last year by $20 billion, or 20 percent, an even greater
increase than from 1967 to 1968, when the surtax went into effect. Last year
TABLE 5.—Changes in personal income, taxes, and saving, 1967—69
Change from preceding period (billions of dollars)
Period
Personal
income

1967
1968
1969 2

42.2
58.5
59.2

Personal
tax and
nontax
payments
7.5
15.0
19.6

Disposable
personal
income

Personal
consumption expenditures

34.6
43.5
39.6

26.0
44.3
39.4

Personal
saving l

7.9
-2.0
-.8

Saving rate
for period
(percent)

7.4
6.5
6.0

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967: Second half

21.5

4.4

17.0

13.8

3.1

7.5

1968: First half
Second half

32.0
31.4

5.9
13.8

26.2
17.6

26.2
22.4

—.8
-5.5

7.1
5.9

1969: First half...
Second half2

28.8
29.3

11.6
2.2

17.3
26.9

19.6
17.1

—2.7
9.5

5.3
6.6

Disposable personal income less personal outlays (personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers,

and personal transfer payments to foreigners).
I
Preliminary.

Note.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




43

was the first full year of the surtax; for this reason surtax liabilites were
higher, rising from 7/ 2 to 10 percent. In addition, 1969 tax payments were
unusually high because of the underwithholding of taxes in 1968. Because
of the substantial increase in taxes, personal disposable (after-tax) income
rose only 6.7 percent, the smallest percentage advance in 6 years.
Consumer spending rose more rapidly than disposable income from 1968
to 1969. The pattern of consumer expenditures within the year was particularly interesting for the light it threw on the impact of the surtax. When
the surtax was imposed in mid-1968, it was recognized that some of its
effects might be offset if consumers decided to reduce their rate of saving.
For reasons that are still not entirely clear, the rate of saving had been
rather high for almost 2 years before the tax increase was enacted.
Furthermore, there was always the possibility that consumers might
be slow in adjusting their expenditures to an anticipated change in disposable income, especially if they regarded the surtax as temporary. As
it turned out, consumers did reduce their rate of saving—but to an extent
that was much greater than anticipated.
The imposition of the tax had little immediate impact on consumer
spending. In the third quarter of 1968, spending rose sharply, and the saving
rate fell; not until the fourth quarter did spending show signs of slowing
down. At the start of 1969, many analysts counted on the slowdown in consumer spending that had finally emerged in the fourth quarter of 1968 to
continue in the first half of 1969, particularly since consumers had heavy tax
payments to make on their 1968 liabilities and since Social Security taxes
were increased at the start of the year. In fact, however, consumer spending
rose sharply in both the first and second quarters, despite the slow expansion
in disposable income. The personal saving rate fell to exceptionally low
levels. Helping to explain the high rate of spending relative to disposable
income in 1968 and 1969 was the rapid monetary expansion and the substantial accumulation of liquid assets that preceded these 2 years.
The liquidity of households increased at very rapid rates throughout 1967
and 1968. The process of attempting to adjust these liquid asset holdings to
normal levels may have contributed to the heavy consumer spending in 1968
and the first half of 1969, as it did in the case of business investment.
During the second half of 1969, increasing concern over the economic
outlook, which showed up in a number of surveys of consumer sentiment,
was reflected in a more subdued pace of consumer spending and a rise
in the saving rate. Spending for durable goods edged down, bringing to a
halt a rise that had started in the summer of 1967. Auto purchases showed
considerable weakness late in the year, as a result of which auto producers
made substantial cuts in production.
State and Local Purchases
State and local government purchases, with a 12-percent increase, showed
the largest percentage advance of any of the major demand components in




44

1969. The somewhat slower rise as compared with the increases from 1966
to 1968 was the result of credit tightness. Several State and local jurisdictions either found it impossible to sell securities because of statutory ceilings
on interest rates or decided to postpone new bond issues because of high rates.
Hardest hit was construction, which accounts for about one-fourth of State
and local government purchases, and which rose very little after annual increases of about 10 percent in the 3 preceding years. The Administration's
request to State and local governments in September to curb construction
came too late in the year to influence 1969 outlays significantly.
Inventory Investment
Investment in business inventories totaled $8 billion last year—about
as much as the year before. Businessmen tended to be cautious in
their inventory policies, possibly because of the high cost of borrowed money
and uncertainties over the sales outlook. Accumulation was moderate in
the first half, but during the third quarter there was some evidence that
unwanted stocks were piling up. However, the actual rate of accumulation
apparently fell in the final quarter as steps were taken to adjust production.
A good part of the swing in inventory accumulation centered in the automobile industry.
SHARES IN THE NATIONAL INCOME
The value of the Nation's production can also be measured by the national income, which is obtained by adding up all of the incomes earned in
current production—wages and salaries, corporate profits, proprietors' incomes, net interest, and rental incomes of persons. Since incomes are the factor costs of production, an analysis of them is particularly instructive in a
time of inflation. It provides a useful backdrop for the discussion of the labor
market, profits, and prices that follows.
The 1969 rise in employee compensation, approximately 10 percent,
matched the large increase from 1967 to 1968. The combination of higher
employment and substantial increases in rates of pay resulted in the largest
percentage increase in private payrolls since 1951. Government payrolls
grew less rapidly than in the preceding year, mainly because the growth in
employment slowed. The slowdown in military payrolls was especially
pronounced because for the first time since 1965 the size of the Armed
Forces showed no increase. The rise in Federal civilian employment was
deliberately held down as a measure of restraint. Growth in State and local
government employment remained substantial, but its rate of increase fell
for the third year in a row.
In 1969, the national income accounts measure of corporate profits (that
is, adjusted to exclude inventory profits) was slightly above the 1968 total.
However, according to preliminary data, profits declined in each quarter
of 1969, continuing a movement that started in late 1968. Book profits (including inventory profits) made a better showing in 1969 than the national
45
372-111 O—70



4

income version; the rise from 1968 came to $3 billion, bringing the total to
more than $94 billion. After-tax profits rose $1 billion to a new peak, the
repeal of the investment tax credit adding $% billion to 1969 tax liabilities.
Corporations increased dividends more than after-tax profits rose so that
undistributed profits edged down.
Both farm and nonfarm proprietors experienced increased incomes in
1969. Large increases in farm prices helped raise the total net income of farm
proprietors by $1.5 billion. Last year's income of about $1-6 billion was
the same as the 1966 total, which in turn was the highest since 1948.
Cash receipts from marketings of livestock and livestock products were
bolstered by a 12-percent price rise that reflected a continued increase in
consumer demand for meat coupled with only moderate increases in market
supplies and in imports, which are limited by voluntary restraints. In the
case of crops, however, another record harvest, combined with big carryovers
of grains and soybeans, resulted in a 3-percent decline in prices. Direct
Government payments totaled about $3% billion last year, up $5/3 billion
from 1968. They accounted, as in 1968, for 6 percent of the cash receipts
from farm marketings.
Inflation had an important effect on farm expenses as well as on receipts
last year. Prices were higher for all major inputs except fertilizers. Sharp
increases were recorded for farm wage rates, which were up 10 percent from
1968. Because the number of hired farmworkers dropped, however, total cash
wages showed an increase of 6 percent over the 1968 figure.
THE LABOR MARKET
The pressures of excess demand that the economy has experienced most
of the time since 1966 have been nowhere more evident than in the labor
market. The tight market that prevailed during most of 1969 showed
up in many different ways. For the year as a whole, the unemployment rate
was the lowest since 1953. In response to the heavy demand for workers,
there was an abnormally large increase in the civilian labor force; the number of persons employed rose by 2 million to a record 77.9 million. The
workweek remained long. Wage rates continued their rapid advance, and
the rise in productivity came to a halt. Within the year, labor demand was
less intense in the second half than in the first.
Employment
The increase of 2 million persons in the civilian labor force was not only
some 600,000 greater than the average rise of the 5 preceding years, but it
was the largest since 1946-47, after the demobilization of the Armed Forces.
With their unemployment rates extremely low and labor force participation
rates already high, adult men accounted for a significantly smaller proportion of the increase in total employment than in the 2 preceding years. Adult
women and teenagers, apparently attracted by the ease of finding jobs, ac-




counted for about three-fourths of the employment rise, a much larger proportion than in 1967 and 1968, when employment increases were not so
great (Table 6). A large proportion of the jobs that women and young
persons found last year were part-time jobs, which have been growing in
importance over the past several years.
TABLE 6.—Changes in civilian employment and distribution of change, 1965—69
Change from preceding year
Year

Total
employment

Both sexes
16-19 years

Females
20 years
and over

Males
20 years
and over

Thousands of persons

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.

1,783
1,807
1,477
1,548
1,982

520
685
-39
98
337

727
877
890
884

1,116

536
245
626
566
529

Percentage distribution of change

1965..
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

29.2
37.9
-2.6
6.3
17.0

40.8
48.5
60.3
57.1
56.3

30.1
13.6
42.4
36.6
26.7

Note.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.

The long-term downward trend in agricultural employment, which had
slowed markedly in 1967 and 1968, accelerated in 1969. All of the major industry divisions in the nonagricultural sector recorded employment increases, but most of the gains were outside manufacturing, increases in construction and retail trade being especially noteworthy. The rise in manufacturing employment was moderate, far below the advances in 1965 and 1966
when the buildup for the Vietnam War was underway.
Unemployment
The average number of persons out of work in 1969 was almost the same
as in 1968, and the unemployment rate edged down from 3.6 percent to
3.5 percent of the labor force. Most groups experienced decreased rates. The
shortage of adult male workers, who account for nearly 60 percent of total
employment and constitute the mainstay of the labor force, was especially
evident last year. Their unemployment rate fell from 2.2 to 2.1 percent—
the lowest for any year in the postwar period. Last year's 12.2 percent rate
for teenagers was the lowest since 1957, and the 6.4 percent rate for Negroes
and other nonwhite races combined showed a decline. Decreases occurred in
the relatively unskilled occupations, but they were also significant among
craftsmen and foremen (Table 7).




47

TABLE 7.—Selected unemployment rates, 1961 and

1965-69

[Percent]

Group of workers

1961

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

67
.

All workers.
Sex and age:
Both sexes 16-19 years....
Men 20 years and over
Women 20 years and overRace:
White
Negro and other races
Selected groups:
White collar workers.
Blue collar workers. _
Craftsmen and foremen.
Operatives
Nonfarm laborers
Private wage and salary workers in nonagricultural
industries..
Construction...
Manufacturing.

4.5

3.8

3.8

36
.

3.5

16.8
5.7
6.3

14.8
3.2
4.5

12.8
2.5
3.8

12.8
2.3
4.2

12.7
2.2
3.8

12.2
2.1
3.7

6.0
12.4

4.1
8.1

3.4
7.3

3.4
7.4

3.2
6.7

3.1
6.4

3.3
9.2

2.3
5.3

2.0
4.2

2.0
4.1

2.1
3.9

6.3
9.6
14.7

3.6
5.5
8.6

2.8
4.3
7.4

2.2
4.4
2.5
5.0
7.6

2.4
4.5
7.2

2.2
4.4
6.7

75
.

46
.

3.8

39
.

36
.

3.5

15.7
7.7

10.1
4.0

8.1
3.2

7.4
3.7

6.9
3.3

6.0
3.3

Source: Department of Labor.

Although the demand for labor was strong through the year, it showed
some easing as the year .progressed, notably after midyear. In nonfarm
establishments, employment increases, which had averaged 700,000 per
quarter in the first half, fell to 300,000 per quarter in the second half. The
length of the workweek in private nonfarm industries fell noticeably in the
final quarter after remaining high and remarkably steady through September. The unemployment rate rose from 3.3 percent in the first quarter to 3.5
percent in the second and edged up further in the second half, showing little
change, on average, from the third to the fourth quarter (Chart 5).
Productivity Changes
Output per man-hour for all employees in the private nonfarm sector
recorded no change from 1968 to 1969. This was the poorest performance
for productivity growth since the mid-1950's. The absence of comprehensive
and detailed data makes it difficult to specify the reasons for this poor
showing. The explanation probably involves two factors which differed in
importance from industry to industry and time to time. One is that the
slower rate of increase of demand and output itself limited the gains of productivity. Employers not only retained staff, technical, and other "overhead"
workers as they usually do; they also expanded their work forces despite
the slower sales rise in order to be prepared for a future higher level of
demand. The consequence of combining this with slow growth of current
output was a poor performance of output per man-hour. The other
explanation is that productivity was limited by the shortage of labor, as evidenced by the low unemployment rates, especially for experienced workers.
Employers were forced to turn to marginal workers such as teenagers and
housewives, most of whom have relatively little work experience and a lower




Chart 5

Unemployment Rate
PERCENT*

10
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

0

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I II I I II I I II I I I I I I II I I II

1953

55

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

than average rate of productivity. Probably also as a result of labor shortage,
absenteeism and turnover were both unusually high, which depressed productivity. Finally, under the conditions that prevailed in 1969, delays in
the delivery of materials and equipment were common, especially in the
capital goods sector, and production schedules were hard to maintain, at
least through the summer.
Wage Changes
Since the demand for labor in recent years has been strong in relation
to supply at existing wage rates, labor has been in a position to win
large gains in hourly compensation. During this period, the rapid rise
in living costs and expectations of further increases in the cost of living have
added to labor's wage demands. Employers have bid up wages because of
their own expectations that higher costs could readily be passed on in the
form of higher prices.
Increases in average hourly earnings, excluding fringe benefits, were again
very large in 1969 (Table 8). In construction and mining, where the demand for labor was extremely strong, hourly earnings showed their sharpest
gains since 1951. In manufacturing, where the increase in labor demand
was more moderate, the rise in earnings fell a little short of the increases in
1968.




49

TABLE 8.—Increases in average gross hourly earnings of private nonagricultural production or
nonsupervisory workers since 1960
Percentage change per year
Industry

Total private 2..

1960
to
1964

1964
to
1965

1965
to
1966

1966

to

1967

1967
to
1968

1968

to

19691

3.1

3.8

4.5

4.7

6.3

6.7

Mining
Contract construction.
Manufacturing

1.9
3.6
2.9

3.9
4.2
3.2

4.5
5.1
4.2

4.6
5.7
4.0

5.0
7.1
6.4

7.2
8.4
6.0

Durable goods
Nondurable goods..

2.8
2.8

3.0
3.1

3.9
3.8

3.4
4.9

6.3
6.6

6.0
6.2

3.5

3.6

4.9

5.2

7.1

6.7

3.0
3.6

3.6
4.0

4.6
4.9

5.5
5.2

5.9
7.5

5.9
6.5

3.3

3.9

3.3

4.5

6.6

6.2

Wholesale and retail trade..
Wholesale trade.
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, and real estate.

* Preliminary.
2 Includes transportation and public utilities and services, not shown separately in this table.
Note.—Data relate to production workers in mining and manufacturing, to construction workers in contract construetion, and, generally, to nonsupervisory workers in all other industries.
Source: Department of Labor.

TABLE 9.—Wage and benefit decisions, 1965-69
Median annual rate of increase in decisions reached in—
Measure
1965

1966

1967

1968

19691

Major collective bargaining situations: 2
Wage and benefit changes (packages):
Equal timings...
Time weighted (actual timing)^

Negotiated first-year wage-rate increases:
All industries
Manufacturing
Nonmanufacturing.

5.2
5.5

6.0
6.6

7.4
8.2

<»3.3

3.9

5.0

5.2

71
.

3.8
3.9

5.1
5.0

4.9
5.9

5.9
8.8

39
.

4.8

5.7

72
.

83
.

4.1
3.7

Manufacturing
Nonmanufacturing.

4.0
4.7

8

Negotiated wage-rate increases averaged over life of
contract:
All industries

3.3
(5)

4.2
5.0

6.4
5.0

6.9
7.5

7.1
10.5

3.7

4.2

5.3

6.0

76.2

3.6
4.0

4.1
4.4

5.5
5.0

6.5
5.0

76.9
75.8

Wage increases in manufacturing:
All establishments

_

Union establishments
Nonunion establishments-

1 Preliminary.
2 Except for packages, data are for contracts affecting 1,000 workers or more. Package cost estimates are limited to settlements affecting 5,000 workers or more (10,000 in 1965). The package cost of a few settlements affecting relatively few
workers has not been determined.
3 Based on estimated increases in hourly costs at end of contract period and assumes equal spacing of wage and benefit
changes over life of contract.
* Takes account of actual effective dates of wage and benefit changes.
* Not available.
6
Based on settlements affecting 10,000 workers or more.
7 Data not available for year 1969; data apply to first 9 months of 1969.
Note.—Possible increases in wages resulting from cost-of-living escalator adjustments (except those guaranteed in the
contracts) were omitted.
Source: Department of Labor.




Although 1969 was not a year of collective bargaining agreements on an
extensive or major scale, the increase in wage rates and benefits won by
unions was considerably above their gains in 1968. Pay raises were not only
much larger in nonmanuf acturing industries than in manufacturing—as was
true in 1968—but the acceleration in comparison with that in the preceding year was also much greater in nonmanuf acturing (Table 9). As in
earlier years, "front-end loading" was common last year. This is the practice of concentrating a pay raise in the first year of a contract covering more
than 1 year. It reflects attempts by unions to make up quickly for the erosion
of prior wage gains because of rising living costs.
The combination of higher hourly compensation and no rise in productivity resulted in a 7-percent rise in labor costs per unit of output—
the sharpest annual advance for employees in the private nonfarm sector
since 1951. It was far above the preceding year's rise of 4 percent because of
the pronounced difference in productivity performance (Chart 6). The rise
in unit labor costs continued throughout the year.
PRICE MOVEMENTS
As a result of last year's pressures in the economy, all major price indicators—the comprehensive GNP price deflator, the consumer price index
(CPI) and the wholesale price index (WPI)—rose more rapidly than in
any year since 1951. Changes in GNP deflators by sector are shown in Table
10 while changes in the CPI and WPI are shown in Table 12.
The rise in the GNP deflator was intensified by the sharp advance in farm
prices and by continued large increases in pay scales for Government workers
and members of the Armed Forces. Although the price rise for the private
nonfarm business sector (which produces about five-sixths of the GNP) was
smaller than for the GNP as a whole, it represented a significant stepup over
the preceding year's change.
TABLE 10.—Changes in implicit price deflators for GNP, by sector, 1965-69
Percentage change
Producing sector

1965
to
1966
2.7

Business _.
Nonfarm
Farm
Households and institutions
General government
Preliminary.

Source: Department of Commerce.




..

..

4.0

47

2.9

36

4 S

2.4

Private

3.2

2.6

Gross national product . .

1

1968
to
19691

1967
to
1968

1966
to
1967

2.8

3.5

4.5

2.0
11.5

3.2
-7.5

35
38

4.3

4.9

6.6

77

4 ?

5.1

5.6

7.6

7.0

7.4

Chart 6

Changes in Compensation, Productivity,
Labor Costs, and Prices
Private Nonfarm Sector
PERCENTAGE CHANGE PER YEAR

10
I960 TO 1965

10

1965 TO 1966

5
0
10
1966 TO 1967

10
1967 TO 1968

5 --

i

1

•1

mmmm

10

• •

1968 TO 1969

5 --

HH
-5
COMPENSATION
PER MAN-HOUR

OUTPUT PER
MAN-HOUR

UNIT LABOR
COST

NOTE.-DATA RELATE TO ALL EMPLOYEES.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.




PRICES

Some insight into price movements in the nonfarm business sector is provided by Table 11, which shows for nonflnancial corporations the composition of price change in terms of changes in its components—costs and profits
per unit of output. These data link the various income flows such as wages
and profits with real output. Costs and profits per unit of output are derived
by dividing each cost aggregate and aggregate profits measured in current
dollars by real output measured in 1958 prices throughout the period. The
sum of the costs and profits per unit equals price per unit, which is the deflator for nonflnancial corporations. (As indicated in the table, for example,
the price of a unit of output thus measured rose 4.1 cents from 1968 to 1969.)
Labor cost is the single most important component of price; in the period
from 1965 through 1969, its relative importance varied from 621/2 to 65 percent of price. All other costs combined—depreciation, indirect business taxes,
and net interest—accounted for about 20 to 21 percent of price while profits
(including the inventory valuation adjustment) accounted for the remainder.
Last year, as in 1966 and 1967, increased labor costs per unit of output
were almost equal to the rise in prices. Depreciation, indirect business taxes,
and net interest also added small amounts>to the price rise. However, businessmen were only partly successful in translating unit cost increases into
higher prices, and consequently profits per unit of output edged lower. This
differed from the experience from 1967 to 1968, a period of very rapid
increase in demand, when the price advance was accompanied by larger
unit profit margins.
TABLE

11.—Changes in current dollar costs and profits per unit of real output of nonfinancial
corporations since ,1960
[Dollars per unit of real output]

Item
Total priceLabor costs..
Other costs 2 .
Profits 3

1960-65
average

1965
to
1966

.007
-.002
.003
.006

08
1
08
1
0
— 01
01
0

1966
to
1967
.030
.028
.014
-.013

1967
to
1968

1968
to
19691

00
3
07
1
07
0
07
0

.041

.038
.011
-.008

1 Preliminary.
2 Capital consumption allowances, indirect business taxes plus transfer payments less subsidies, and net interest.
3
Before tax and including inventory valuation adjustment.
Note.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

Although the price rise was substantial throughout 1969, the character
of the rise appeared to be undergoing a transition some time late in the year.
Unit costs continued to increase rapidly. With real output growing more
slowly, aggregate overhead costs became increasingly burdensome. But
demand pressures, which had been the dominant element in the price rise
earlier in the year, diminished, making it more difficult for business fully
to recoup cost increases through higher prices. However, the further narrowing of unit profit margins did not prevent prices from rising sharply at the
end of the year.




53

Wholesale and Retail Prices
Large increases in wholesale prices of farm products and foods and widespread advances in industrial prices brought about a 4.0-percent rise in
wholesale prices from 1968 to 1969, considerably more than the 2.5-percent
rise from 1967 to 1968 (Chart 7). All of the main parts of the industrial
component increased, and for most the rises were greater than they had been
from 1967 to 1968. Increases were considerably above average for metals and
metal products, amounting to almost 6 percent, as a result of large increases
in steel and nonferrous metals prices. Prices of lumber and wood products
recorded a rise of 11 percent from 1968 to 1969 after a 13-percent advance
from 1967 to 1968.
TABLE 12.—Changes in wholesale and consumer prices, J966—69
Percentage change (annual rate) over preceding period
Commodity or item group

1969
1966

1967

1968

1969
1

II

III

Unadjusted
Wholesale prices: All commodities.

3.3

0.2

2.5

4.0

6.4

5.1

2.9

4.3

Farm products
Processed foods and feeds . .
Industrial commodities

7.3
5.9
2.1

-5.6
-1.2
1.5

2.5
2.1
2.5

6.2
5.0
3.4

12.2
5.7
5.6

14.4
11.5
2.9

.7
7.6
2.2

3.3
1.3
5.1

2.9

2.8

4.2

5.4

5.0

6.9

5.8

5.7

5.0
1.3
3.8

.9
2.5
4.4

3.6
3.7
5.2

5.2
4.2
7.0

4.0
2.5
7.5

6.7
6.4
8.2

10.4
2.4
6.6

3.8
6.2
6.5

Consumer prices: All items
Food
Nonfood commodities
Services

Seasonally adjusted
Consumer prices: All items.

5.3

6.9

5.5

5.7

Food...
Nonfood commodities _
Services. _

4.0
4.6
7.5

7.0
5.6
8.3

6.6
3.1
6.6

7.5
4.1
6.8

Source: Department of Labor.

Industrial prices rose at a very rapid rate early in the year, showed a
declining rate of increase in the second and third quarters, and then accelerated again in the final quarter, when prices advanced at an annual rate of 5.1
percent. This movement through the year was distorted to some extent by
the behavior of lumber and wood products prices, which rose very rapidly
through March and thereafter declined 18 percent, falling back almost to
the level of the preceding year. That decline followed from a weakening in demand as a result of the downturn in housing starts and from special
efforts undertaken by the Administration to improve supplies. The exclusion of the lumber and wood products component from the industrial average would reduce the first quarter increase and raise the second and third.
On this basis, the increases in the first three quarters would be about the
same while the fourth quarter would represent a peak for the year.




54

Chart 7

Price Changes
PERCENTAGE CHANGE

63

1955

57

59

65

67

69

61

63

65

67

69

61

63

65

67

69

WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX, TOTAL

57

1955

59

WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX, INDUSTRIALS

m

4

m

2
V77A

0
-2
1955

57

59

61

63

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.




55

65

67

69

The consumer price index rose 5.4 percent in 1969 following a 1968 advance of 4.2 percent and increases of just under 3 percent in 1966 and 1967.
All of the broad components registered sizable advances, the largest—7 percent—being in services. However, the acceleration in relation to the 1968
record was attributable almost wholly to food (5.2 percent in 1969 as compared with 3.6 percent in 1968) and housing (6.4 percent in 1969 as
compared with 4.2 percent in 1968).
Consumer prices rose rapidly throughout the year. The increase was
largest from the first to the second quarter, when it came to an annual
rate of almost 7 percent. However, the rise subsided a little in the third
and fourth quarters.
# # #
By the end of 1969, the first signs that the inflationary tide was no
longer rising had begun to appear. They had been slow in coming. Strong
expectations of inflation, an abundant supply of liquidity when the year
opened, and poor productivity performance all contributed to the delay in
the response to anti-inflationary policy. But there was enough response
to indicate that if the policy was continued the desired results would be
achieved. The steadfastness of policy would be tested in 1970.




CHAPTER 2

Stabilization Policy for 1970 and Beyond
POLICY AND OUTLOOK FOR 1970
E YEAR 1970 OPENS with total demand slowed down substantially
-*- and real output approximately stable, but with prices still rising rapidly.
The objectives of policy for 1970 are to reduce the rise of prices and to revive
the growth of output. These objectives are difficult to reconcile. Measures
that would most quickly revive the growth of real output would almost
certainly accelerate the rise of prices. Measures that would assure the most
rapid stabilization of the price level would almost certainly force a sharp
contraction of production and employment. But there is a path of moderate
expansion of demand which will yield both a decline of the rate of inflation
and a resumption of growth of output. The task of economic policy in 1970
is to achieve that path.
The path of the economy in the early part of 1970 is already largely
determined. Policy actions taken in the first few months of the year will
probably not have much immediate effect. However, the course of the economy later in the year will depend heavily on policy actions still to be taken.
The policy problem for 1970 is to take actions in the first half of the year
which will place the economy on the sustainable path of moderately rising
output and significantly declining inflation in the second half. This desirable
path will also be the probable path if the policy needed is correctly identified
and carried through.
THE POLICY OBJECTIVES FOR 1970
Although the course of the economy in the early part of 1970 is already
largely determined, this is not to say that it is already known. In fact, even for
the next few months there are considerable uncertainties. A continued slow
rise of money gross national product (GNP) at about the annual rate
of the fourth quarter of 1969 seems likely. The very small monetary expansion of the second half of 1969 may portend an even slower rise of GNP.
If this were about to occur in the months immediately ahead, however,
clearer evidence might already have been expected in developments such as
new orders for durable goods, which reflect the intermediate processes between changes in the money supply and changes in GNP.
With continued slow increase of GNP in the early months of 1970 the
growth of real output would remain close to zero, and there should be some




57

decline in the rate of inflation. The sharp rise of wholesale prices at the end
of 1969, however, holds out the possibility that the rise of over-all prices
(as measured by the GNP deflator) in early 1970 may differ little from that
in late 1969. However, if the slowing of final demand leads to an increased
rate of inventory accumulation early in the year, subsequent reductions in
production schedules might mean losses in output and some softening of
prices as inventories were being worked back down.
Despite these uncertainties of degree, it does seem likely that by mid-1970
the economy, after three quarters of very little increase of real output, would
be producing significantly below its potential. Such a GNP gap places a downward pressure on the rate of inflation. Businesses find themselves selling in
markets less receptive to price increases. This forces greater resistance to
cost increases, including wage increases. These pressures against inflation will
continue if demand remains below potential output, even though demand
begins to rise more rapidly.
Thus, in the second half of 1970 a moderately more rapid rise of money
demand, bringing about an increase of real output, would be consistent
with a further reduction of the rate of inflation. The demand for output
would be short of the potential so that a moderately larger increase in demand
would call forth mainly an increase in real output, not in the price level.
On the other hand, if demand continues to rise so slowly that real output
does not rise, this could be expected to result in rising unemployment. It is
well to remember, however, that the unemployment rate does not move in
any fixed, precise relationship to other measures of business activity. We were
reminded of that again in 1969. There was a considerable slowdown of real
output gains, and in the fourth quarter a cessation, but this did not cause a
significant rise in the unemployment rate. Still, this slippage between real
output and employment cannot be expected to go on indefinitely. The prospect of a rise in unemployment increases the importance of bringing about a
rise in real output when that is consistent with continued progress in reducing
inflation.
The exact timing and degree of expansion that would be consistent with
a significant reduction in inflation in 1970 are uncertain. However, it seems a
reasonable estimate that the slow increases of GNP foreseeable in the first
half plus the moderately larger but still noninflationary increases desirable
in the second half would add up to a GNP for the year between $980 and $990
billion—a range which for convenience may be described by the figure of
$985 billion. This would be an increase of about 5J/2 percent over 1969, as
compared with the increase of 7.7 percent from 1968 to 1969. Part of this
smaller GNP rise would be reflected in a smaller increase of real output. Part
of it would be reflected in less inflation. Whereas the GNP price deflator
went up 5.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 1968 to the fourth quarter
of 1969, and was still rising at a 4.7-percent annual rate at the end of 1969, it
is reasonable to expect these figures to be substantially lower in 1970.




58

It is not necessary at this point in history to emphasize the fallibility of
such estimates of a desirable pattern of the GNP and of the consequences
of that pattern for the behavior of prices. However, precision in such estimates is not required for the success of policy. The estimates indicate the
desirable general direction of policy. The basic point is that if the rate of
growth of GNP is slowed, the rate of inflation will in time also decline, although the timing and magnitude of the effect is inevitably somewhat uncertain. The growth of GNP has already been slowed to a rate which although temporarily necessary is lower than needs to be sustained for long
in order to achieve significant disinflation. Therefore we can tolerate a
moderate rise in the rates of increase of GNP and of real output without reviving inflation and should have such a rise in order to avoid mounting
unemployment.
POLICY FOR 1970
There is substantial room for judgment about the combination of policies that would get the economy on the desired path. There are two
dangers to be avoided. One is that after the slowdown of activity which is
now in progress total demand will rise too soon and too sharply, touching
off another round of inflation, as in 1967. Some have expressed concern
about the expansiveness of fiscal policy—with the two-step elimination of the
income tax surcharge, the institution of the low-income allowance and the
increase of the personal exemption in the income tax, and the large rise in
Social Security benefits. This, some fear, could add up to excessive stimulus;
the tight expenditure control recommended in the budget for fiscal year 1971
submitted by the Administration is intended to prevent that.
Others are concerned that the highly restrictive stance of monetary policy
after mid-1969 and the slow growth of real output experienced in late 1969
and expected to continue into early 1970 will make the slowdown too severe.
The combination of tight credit conditions, slow sales growth, and declining
profits could bring unexpected weakness in business investment (including inventories) at the same time that Federal purchases are falling and
credit tightness is restraining construction and purchases by State and local
governments.
It would not be prudent to count on these two possibilities—an expansive
swing in the budget position and cumulating severity of monetary restraint—
to offset each other, although it is possible that they might. Not enough is
known about the relative influences of the fiscal and monetary factors to preclude the possibility that one or the other might be heavily dominant, resulting in either excessive expansion or excessive contraction. The safer
course would be a more moderate posture for both fiscal and monetary
policies.
There are other important reasons for not relying on a combination of an
expansive fiscal policy, with a budget deficit, and an extremely restrictive




59

monetary policy. Even if this combination should result in the desired moderate disinflation, it would do so only with high interest rates and scarcity
of funds that would limit the rate of residential construction to a level inadequate for the needs of the growing population. Moreover, excessive pressures in U.S. money and capital markets are reflected in international
financial markets, tending to lead toward a disturbing escalation of interest
rates in those markets.
Fiscal policy in 1970 should therefore aim at continuing a modest surplus
in the unified budget. Combined with moderate monetary restraint this
might be expected to yield the GNP path indicated above as desirable without
overly severe pressures in credit markets. This does not mean a return to
the rates of monetary expansion of 1967 and 1968. The appropriate rate
of expansion is between that of 1967-68 and the severe restraint of the
latter part of 1969. But just what this rate should be is particularly difficult
to tell, because of uncertainty about the adjustment of the economy to the
lower demand for money resulting from high interest rates, inflationary
expectations, and the development of new money substitutes. In these circumstances policy must be cautious and tentative and feel its way along.
OUTLOOK FOR GNP AND ITS COMPONENTS
The fiscal and monetary policy described is intended to bring a moderate
revival along a sustainable path, after slow expansion of the GNP in the first
half of the year. This target has been indicated above by a path which
would yield a total GNP of about $985 billion for 1970. The behavior of the
components of GNP that might be expected to accompany this policy, and
realization of the GNP total, is subject to a number of uncertainties, but the
following is a reasonable expectation for the major sectors of the economy
that is consistent with this picture for the whole.
Business Fixed Investment. Private investment surveys suggest a 7- to 10percent increase in plant and equipment spending in 1970, and the Commerce Department-SEC survey suggests a 9-percent increase from 1969 to
the second quarter of 1970, with a further small increase in the second half
of 1970. Since a large fraction of the anticipated increase in plant and equipment spending is in nonmanufacturing industries such as public utilities,
which have somewhat independent investment demands, a strong further
gain for investment in 1970 seems likely. On the other hand, there are constraints on a further substantial expansion of capital outlays. Credit is expensive and for some firms difficult to obtain. The liquidity of many companies has been reduced sharply. And profits are going to be under adverse
pressures. These suggest tha.t investment demand in other sectors might be
sluggish. Thus, with the economy slowing, realized investment spending may
come in somewhat less than anticipated. On balance, an increase of about
8 percent—on the low side of the anticipations surveys—seems to be a
reasonable expectation for 1970.




6o

Inventories. Although auto inventories were a bit high at the end of 1969,
inventories in general did not seem out of line with their relationship to
sales in recent years. Businesses seem for the most part to be successful in
pursuing a cautious inventory policy. Thus only a slight decline in inventory
investment is expected in 1970.
Both inventories and business fixed investment present a major uncertainty
on the down side of the forecast. A major downturn in sales expectations
could bring a large downward revision in both kinds of business investment.
But no such swing seems to be in the making now. Such factors as the need
to reduce costs with modern equipment, the expectations of the business
community concerning the price level, and for many companies the still thin
margin of spare capacity, are all acting to keep capital expenditures strong.
Residential Construction. Housebuilding is the sector most exposed to
increasing tightness in the capital markets, and it has also been hard hit by
distortion in the flow of funds in response to interest rate ceilings. The rate
of housing starts (private nonfarm) fell from an average 1.7 million (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 1969 to 1.3 million in the last quarter
as credit conditions tightened.
Housing starts are expected to remain low in the first half of 1970. If, as
expected, conditions become easier in the money and capital markets, housing starts should respond favorably in the second half of the year. Nevertheless in 1970 housing will be below the longer-run demand indicated by present
and prospective rates of new family formation and real income and normal
replacement needs.
Despite housing costs rising, residential construction expenditures are expected to fall to about $30 billion in 1970, from $32.2 billion in 1969.
State and Local Government. The strong upward trend of State and
local government purchases of goods and services is expected to continue in
1970, rising about $11 to $12 billion over those in 1969. Much depends on
credit conditions. The increase is expected to be less in the first half of
1970, reflecting credit conditions in 1969. As capital market conditions
gradually ease during the first half of 1970, outlays may accelerate in the
second half.
Federal Purchases. The tight expenditure control projected in the budget
for fiscal 1971 is reflected in the estimates of Federal purchases of goods and
services in 1970. Total Federal purchases, which came to $102.0 billion in
1969, are expected to fall by about $4/ 2 billion in 1970. This declining Federal Government demand for output is a major factor in the projected reduction of the rate in inflation. All of the decrease in Federal purchases is
projected to come in the defense area, which is expected to reduce its purchases from $79.3 billion in 1969 to about $74 billion in 1970. Nondefense
Federal purchases are expected to remain about at the 1969 level of $22.8
billion.
372-111 O—70



5

6i

Consumption. Consumer spending in 1970 is another major source of
uncertainty. Surveys indicate that consumer sentiment has been falling
sharply since the first quarter of 1969, and experience suggests that these
changes in consumer attitudes are associated with slower buying. Indeed,
automobile sales began to show some weakness toward the end of 1969,
and into this year. On the other hand, reduction of the income tax surcharge
to 5 percent on January 1, and to zero on July 1, in addition to an increase
in Social Security benefits of about $4.4 billion (annual rate) in April 1970
with an additional $2.8 billion one-time payment for benefits retroactive to
January 1970, should tend to stimulate consumer spending.
On balance, it is expected that consumer expenditures will rise by about
$40 billion from 1969 to 1970. With some of the addition to disposable income from the surcharge elimination going into saving, the saving rate is
expected to rise from 6 percent in 1969 to about 6^4-7 percent in 1970.
Net Exports. Net exports of goods and services are expected to rise from
about $2.1 billion in 1969 to about $3 billion in 1970. While the slowdown
expected in the growth of U.S. demand should reduce the growth of merchandise imports, the combined effect of less buoyant demand conditions in
some markets abroad and the lagged impact of rising prices in the United
States on our exports and imports may limit the improvement in 1970.
Summary. The general trends in the composition of the GNP described
above are consistent with a GNP for 1970 of about $985 billion or, more
realistically, between $980 and $990 billion. While specific figures in billions
of dollars have been put down for each major component of GNP, it would,
of course, be possible to achieve the total with a different mixture. If this
total is achieved, the year should see progress toward establishing the basis
for sustained gains against inflation, and for more sustainable rates of expansion. Policy will have to be open for reconsideration if the economy seems
to be on a markedly different path or if the path is not leading to the desired
results.
UNEMPLOYMENT AND MANPOWER POLICY FOR 1970
With little growth of real output likely in the first half of 1970, and with
the restraint that will have to be maintained in the second half, some increase
in the rate of unemployment is possible. This depends in large part on the
change in output per worker and in the proportion of the population that
seeks employment, variables that are particularly difficult to predict. Much
of the increase would be the result of a small lengthening in the average
interval of unemployment experienced by people between jobs or newly
entering the labor force. (For a discussion of the character and significance
of unemployment see Appendix A.)
The reduction in Department of Defense procurement, reflected in the
budget and in the projections of defense purchases, will directly cause a
decline in defense production and employment. This has been taken into




62

account in the earlier discussion of monetary and fiscal policy and of the
possibility of changes in overall unemployment. The Federal Government,
in action coordinated by the President's office, will assist the workers and
communities directly affected to make the smoothest possible transition to
other activities. This action will include, in addition to the programs discussed in the next few paragraphs, planning assistance, loans and grants for
severely affected communities, and, in some cases, transfer of federally owned
facilities to nondefense use.
The risk of a rise in unemployment, even if small and temporary, adds to
the urgency of steps to spread its burden more equitably and to minimize its
adverse effects on those who become temporarily unemployed. The Administration's programs in manpower training and welfare reform, while primarily aimed at longer-run structural improvement, will also help to cushion
the impact of a temporary increase in unemployment.
MANPOWER TRAINING ACT
The Administration has proposed many improvements in manpower
training efforts in the Manpower Training Act of 1969, which coordinates
separate manpower programs and creates a comprehensive manpower
services system. The bill would decentralize the administration of manpower
programs to State and local governments because they can more accurately
identify specific local problems and priorities. The decentralization would
take place in three steps as States and municipalities demonstrate interest
and establish administrative capability in the manpower area. The bill would
unify the administration of manpower services, providing for the establishment of State and area single prime sponsors who will be responsible for
planning and providing services. It would provide flexible funding for
manpower programs so that they may be better utilized in the community to
meet local needs.
In addition, it would facilitate the use of manpower programs as an
economic stabilizer by authorizing a 10-percent increase in the manpower
appropriation when the national unemployment rate reaches 4.5 percent
(seasonally adjusted) for 3 consecutive months.
EMPLOYMENT SECURITY AMENDMENTS
The Administration has also proposed legislation to strengthen our unemployment insurance system. The legislation would extend unemployment
insurance to 5.1 million workers not now covered and automatically extend
the duration of benefits in periods of high unemployment. Eligible workers
would receive benefits for up to an additional 13 weeks beyond the present
limit (usually 26 weeks) if insured unemployment were to go as high as 4.5
percent (seasonally adjusted) for 3 consecutive months. The legislation
would also require States to permit workers to continue to receive unemployment insurance benefits while enrolled in job training programs. These
changes will make the unemployment insurance system more effective than
ever before in maintaining the purchasing power of the unemployed.




63

FAMILY ASSISTANCE PLAN
The proposed Family Assistance Plan (FAP) ties in closely with the manpower training programs. It greatly reduces the danger that poor people who
had not been covered by unemployment compensation would be seriously
injured by an increase in unemployment, or that workers with large families
would find themselves in difficult straits in periods of temporary unemployment. The Plan would supplement the incomes of the poor whose wages
are too low to meet the needs of their families, and of those who have difficulty working, or probably ought not to be working, such as women with low
incomes who head families with young children.
The Plan, in conjunction with the Administration's food stamp program,
would have its greatest impact on the working poor, while maintaining the
incentive to work. A family of four with no income would receive $1,600,
plus about $850 in food stamps, for a potential income of $2,450. An incentive is provided for recipients to obtain jobs by permitting a family of four
to receive some FAP payment until its income reaches $3,920. Able-bodied
men who are not employed, and mothers of families with no such man at
home and no children under 6, must register at the State employment office
for training or employment as a condition of receiving their benefit (although
payments to their dependents are in any event automatic). Day care would
be provided for children whose mothers are at work, or in training.
The Family Assistance Plan would eliminate the existing system of welfareconditioned-on-dependency. By providing aid to families headed by working
men, and by providing incentives to work, it would presumably contribute
to family stability in low income groups. The FAP payment (with food
stamps) at any income level would be well above the present welfare payment at that income level in many States, thereby reducing State-to-State
differences in benefit levels. The Federal Government would finance the
Plan, relieving the States of some of the burden of high welfare costs. Payments would be made on the basis of declaration of income. There will be a
presumptive need test, but it would be simple and straightforward, and the
citizen's word would have approximately the same weight as it does in selfreporting for personal income tax deductions. With this method the social
worker no longer has to judge eligibility for benefits and supervise the use
of the family income.
OTHER MANPOWER PROGRAMS
The Computerized Job Bank is a promising innovation in job placement.
It currently is operating in seven U.S. cities, and by next June, the target
is to have such facilities established in a total of 56 cities. The Job Bank plan
produces a daily, up-to-date computerized list of available jobs to help
place the unemployed. In addition, the establishment of a national system of
job vacancy statistics, presently under development, will provide current
information on the numbers and locations of jobs available in different
industries and occupations.




Changes have been made in the Job Corps to improve its operation and
to integrate it better with other manpower programs, as well as with local
labor markets. Fifty-nine centers were closed and 30 new inner-city and
near-city training centers will be established in order to shift the emphasis
from conservation work to training and job placement.
The Administration has emphasized well conceived and carefully planned
manpower training programs. Pilot projects to test manpower programs are
an important means to accomplish this objective. A pilot project presently
is being conducted in several States to test various methods of using computers to match specific jobs to the needs, interest, and ability of a particular
applicant. All of these programs will help to ease the slowing pains of the
disinflationary policy that must be followed in 1970, while improving labor
mobility and skills to provide the base for a noninflationary expansion back
to full employment beginning in late 1970.
THE TRANSITION TO FULL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
At the end of 1970 total output should be rising, and the price level
should be rising significantly less rapidly than at the beginning of the
year. Nevertheless, total output will be below its potential and the rate
of inflation, while declining, will probably still be too high. The transition
to an economy growing along the path of potential output at full employment with reasonable price stability will not have been completed.
The problem then will be to raise the rate of increase of real output
while continuing to reduce the rate of inflation. This will be essentially
a continuation of the 1970 problem. There will, however, be two differences.
Whereas in 1970 it is necessary that real output should rise by less
than its potential, at some point it will be necessary that output should
rise somewhat more rapidly than potential for an interval. This would be
the only way for actual output, starting below potential, to regain the
potential.
This temporary period of regaining potential output will have to be
negotiated cautiously to avoid reviving inflation. The possibility of doing
this should be strengthened by another development. As persistence of
policy brings the actual inflation rate down, the expected rate of inflation
will also fall, and this will influence both buyers and sellers of goods and
services (including labor). Workers will accept smaller increases in money
wages if expected price increases are smaller. Interest rates will be lower
because lenders will no longer want as much compensation for the expected
fall in the value of money and borrowers will be less ready to give such
compensation. In other words, the inflationary momentum that resisted antiinflationary policy strongly in its early phases will subside.
With the economy starting from a position below potential, and inflationary expectations reduced, an increase of demand sufficient to restore output




to its potential rate need not revive inflation if it does not occur too rapidly.
Just how fast it will be safe to proceed can be much better judged after the
behavior of the economy in 1970 is tested.
It is impossible to state a target for reduction of unemployment and the
rate of inflation in the years just ahead. As both are reduced, the costs and
benefits of further reduction must be weighed. It would be foolish to predict
now where the margin of improvement in unemployment and inflation lies.
But after 1970 we will have a clear guide for the direction of policy:
lower inflation, and lower unemployment.
THE STABILIZATION PROBLEM IN THE LONGER RUN
The main lesson of stabilization policy in 1969 was the importance of
avoiding in the future the kind of inflationary situation and pervasive
inflation-mindedness that had built up by the end of 1968. Starting from
that situation a major change in the behavior of the economy and in expectations was required, a change that would run against the current of strong
ongoing forces. No one could tell how fast that change could be successfully
accomplished or the degree of monetary and fiscal restraint required to
accomplish it.
The objective of stabilization policy in 1970 will be to move us toward a
position where the main goal can be continuity. That position will have been
reached when inflation has been brought down to a significantly slower
rate, and real output is growing at about its potential rate. At that point
growth of the GNP in current dollars at a steady and moderate rate, such as
6 percent per year, would serve to support steady growth of output at its
potential rate with a far better performance of the price level than has been
experienced in recent years.
The problem then will be threefold:
1. To stablize the rate of growth of money GNP as far as feasible at
a pace that will permit the economy to produce at its potential;
2. To adapt the economy so that it lives better with whatever remaining
instability may develop; and
3. To press on with measures to reduce both inflation and unemployment further.
STABILIZING THE GROWTH OF GNP
To stabilize the growth of GNP will require avoiding destabilizing moves
in fiscal and monetary policies and instead using these policies to offset, or at
least constrain, destabilizing forces arising in the private economy. One difficulty is that the attempt to use fiscal and monetary policies to counter fluctuations arising in the private economy may itself be destabilizing, if moves
are not made in the right amounts and at the right times.




66

Stabilization by Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy should avoid large destabilizing swings occurring at random
or contrary to the clear requirements of the economy. The big upsurge of
Federal spending (nondefense as well as defense spending) after mid-1965,
which was unmatched by any general tax increase for 3 years, is a major
example of such a destabilizing movement.
The likelihood of achieving economic stability would not be greatly affected by the size of the surplus or deficit, within a reasonable range, if that
size were itself stable or changing only slowly, and if the effects on liquidity
resulting from secular increases or decreases in the Federal debt were offset
by monetary policy. Therefore, it should be possible to decide on the desired
full-employment surplus or deficit on grounds other than stability, and without sacrificing stability if the target itself is kept reasonably stable. If the
budget position changes sharply in the short run in the absence of marked
shifts in private demand, the adaptation of the private economy and the
compensatory force of monetary policy may not come into play quickly
enough to prevent large swings in overall economic activity. This is a major
lesson for the 1970's.
The considerations which should govern the decision about the average
size of the surplus or deficit are discussed in Chapter 3. Except as a result of
a national emergency, there is probably no reason for this decision to change
in a way that would radically alter, from year to year, the size of the surplus
or deficit that would be the objective under conditions of high employment.
If the surplus or deficit position of the budget that would be yielded by a
steadily growing, full-employment GNP were kept stable, the actual figure
would, of course, automatically respond to changes in the pace of the economy. If the economy were to grow unusually slowly in any year, receipts would
rise slowly also, and the surplus would be below normal (or the deficit would
be enlarged further). These variations in the size of the surplus or deficit
would tend to stabilize the growth rate of the GNP. The question is in what
circumstances and how to go beyond this and vary expenditure programs
and tax rates to offset fluctuations in the private economy. There is now abundant experience with the obstacles to effective and flexible use of tax changes
for this purpose. Moreover, recent experience and analysis suggest that the
stabilizing power of temporary income tax changes may not be as great as had
been hoped, and it might become less if they were used frequently, because
people would tend to adjust their behavior to what they regard as the normal
rate of taxation. Nevertheless, there will be situations in which tax rates
must be changed in order to maintain the desired longrun deficit or surplus
position and there may also be circumstances in which the effort should be
made to use a temporary tax change to offset destabilizing shifts in private
demand.
The possibility of varying the rate of increase of Federal spending in
the interest of stability is somewhat greater though still limited. Although




tax and expenditure decisions are both politically sensitive, the fact that the
President has some discretion to adjust the timing of expenditures within the
limits of legislation avoids some of the complications that beset tax changes.
Moreover, the effect of expenditure changes on economic activity can
probably be more reliably foreseen than the effect of temporary tax changes.
It is true that the part of the total expenditures that is open to deliberate
variation is small, because of legal and implied commitments. Nevertheless, some variations can, in fact, be made, as they were in 1969, and it
would be unwise to rule out the attempt to do more of this when the
economic necessity is clear. Furthermore, it is possible to broaden the "automatic stabilizers" in Federal expenditure, as the Administration has proposed
in the Manpower Training Act and Employment Security Amendments
mentioned earlier.
The possibility of using debt management as an instrument of stabilization
policy has been severely inhibited by the 4*4 -percent interest rate ceiling on
Government bonds. This ceiling has forced the Federal Government to sell
only short or intermediate securities since 1965. Raising or eliminating the
ceiling to realistic levels, or eliminating it, would provide the Federal Government with a desirable degree of latitude in conducting its financing
operations.
Stabilization by Monetary Policy
Monetary policy can be devoted somewhat more singlemindedly to maintaining stability than can fiscal policy. Nevertheless, there are a number of
difficulties in its use. Apparently the effects of changes in monetary policy
are felt in the economy with widely varying and often long lags. Therefore,
if policy that is intended to have a restrictive effect is continued until the
effect is visible, the lagged consequences of what has been done may show
up in excessive contraction. The attempt to counter this by a sharp reversal in
policy to an expansive posture may, after a while, generate inflationary rates
of expansion. In the present state of knowledge there is no ideal solution for
this problem. Prudence, therefore, suggests the desirability of not allowing
monetary policy to stray widely from the steady posture that is likely on the
average to be consistent with long-term economic growth, even though
forecasts at particular times may seem to call for a sharp variation in one
direction or another.
The suggestion that monetary policy might well be steady, or at least steadier than it has been, raises the question of the terms in which this stability is
to be measured. There is abundant evidence that the steadiness of monetary
policy cannot be measured by the steadiness of interest rates. Interest rates
will tend to rise when business is booming and inflation is present or expected;
they will tend to decline in the opposite circumstances. Better results might
be obtained by concentrating more on the steadiness of the main monetary
aggregates, such as the supply of money, of money plus time deposits, and
of total bank credit. This still leaves questions of policy to be resolved when




68

these aggregates are tending to move in different directions, or at different
rates of change, as they often do. There is no substitute for trying to understand in particular cases what the significance of the divergences is and
what they indicate about the underlying behavior of the supply of liquidity.
IMPROVING OUR ECONOMIC DATA
Since the Federal Government has the responsibility for keeping the
economy on a noninflationary growth path with high employment, it must
have at its disposal the tools for accurately measuring on a timely basis
the performance of the economy at the national level. The Government
now publishes a broad array of economic statistics that serve this purpose.
These statistics, particularly those relating to economic activity in the
short run, have grown over the years in volume and quality and have
served the Nation well. But our demands for economic data of high quality
keep outrunning the supply. The Federal Government is not alone in
requiring better statistics, since to an increasing extent businesses have
been making use of economic data for planning their own operations. Indeed,
never before have so many businesses watched so closely the economic indicators that appear each month or quarter.
More accurate measurement of economic performance would improve the
management of policy in a number of ways. It would tell us more certainly
where we have been. Elementary as this may sound, it is of crucial importance. Too often this is a fundamental problem for the policymaker. The
economy, or some important part of it, may be on a somewhat different
course from that indicated by the data. Or economic series that purport
to measure the same thing, or almost the same thing, may move in contradictory directions. Sometimes a series that moves in one direction one month
moves in the opposite direction when revised the following month. The first
requirement for making judgments about where the economy is going or
what policies are needed is an accurate picture of where we have been.
Accurate data are also needed in order to help analyze the past and find
relationships that have some degree of stability. Accomplishing this aim
is obviously only partly a question of statistics; the economy is, of course,
more than a mechanism. For example, swings in sentiment and attitudes in
our affluent economy have a powerful effect on the inclinations of consumers
and businesses to spend. Consumer behavior has been especially difficult to
predict in recent years, and may be more complex than had been thought
previously. Business decisionmaking is equally complex. Yet economic analysis is a continuing search for patterns of regularity that can be helpful in
forming judgments about the economy. And the first requirement for this
search is reliable basic data. The Administration has proposed substantial
improvements in many of the key economic statistics, including, for example,
those relating to retail sales, construction, the service industries, international prices, and job vacancies.




69

Having data on a timely basis is also important for the policymaker. This
is particularly important if there is reason to think that the economy may be
shifting its course. This Nation probably has more timely statistics than any
other economy, but clearly much improvement is in order here. Early in
1969 the President directed the Director of the Bureau of the Budget to
take action that would secure prompter issuance of monthly and quarterly
statistical series by Federal agencies. The Bureau of the Budget issued a set
of guidelines governing release of major economic indicators, and the statistical agencies have already achieved a considerable speedup. Further progress depends heavily on obtaining prompter reporting from the business
community.
LIVING WITH INSTABILITY
If the American people assign sufficient priority to doing so, they should
be able to enjoy a higher degree of economic stability than in the past. Still,
some instability will remain, and this emphasizes the importance of improving the operation of the economy so that the remaining instability will
cause less pain and inefficiency. The most obvious and probably most
important step in this direction is improvement of the unemployment
compensation system. Proposals of the Administration to accomplish this
have been discussed earlier in this chapter. Improvement of labor markets—
through better provision for retraining and movement of workers—would
also help to prevent the concentration of unemployment on a small group of
workers who are substantially injured by it.
On the inflation side, also, some useful steps can be taken. The distortions
introduced into the economy by the presence of interest rate ceilings of
various kinds—on savings deposits and shares, on guaranteed and insured
mortgages, on loans generally under State usury laws—have become evident
in this inflationary period. When market interest rates rise certain uses of
credit are shrunk disproportionately because of these ceilings. The need to
free the economy of these rigidities is discussed in Chapter 4.
The construction industry has experienced much greater fluctuations in
conjunction with general economic instability than most other industries.
This has been painful to the workers and contractors in the industry and
harmful to the growth of its productivity. Steps to reduce this extreme instability are also discussed in Chapter 4.
THE CONTINUING PROBLEMS OF INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
The present anti-inflation effort should reduce the rate of inflation
substantially and demote inflation from its position as the Nation's most important economic problem. Still the problem of getting the inflation rate down
further, while at the same time maintaining high employment, will probably
remain. This will require persistent efforts to reduce the inflation that occurs
when demand is growing sufficiently to keep employment high. One of the
most hopeful lines of attack will be to improve the adaptation of the labor




70

force—in skills and location—to the pattern of demand for labor. This will
shorten the interval of job-search for persons losing or leaving old jobs or
entering the labor force, in given conditions of the labor market. It will
permit an increasingly high rate of employment to be attained without so
strong a pressure of demand as to cause inflation. Manpower programs to
move in this direction by better training programs, application of computer
technology to job placement and general overhaul of the Nation's job
exchange system, have already been discussed. Evaluation of experience with
them should permit further development of improved methods. Measures to
improve the competitiveness of product markets to assure that business
policies will freely and flexibly adapt to changes in market demand will also
contribute to reducing the average rate of inflation that accompanies high
employment. Some of these measures are considered in Chapter 4.
There is no inherent reason why a high employment economy must be
an inflationary economy—even a mildly inflationary economy. After the
series of inflationary episodes since World War II, the transition to a stable
condition of high employment without inflation will come slowly. But
with persistent attention and effort it is attainable.




CHAPTER 3

Uses of the National Output
INTRODUCTION

B

Y ANY USUAL MEASURE, AMERICA ENTERS THE 1970's a
wealthy nation which is growing wealthier at a rapid rate. Per capita
national income in 1969 was about $3,400 and had increased in real terms
about 40 percent since 1959. It is expected to increase 20 percent more
by 1975.
Despite this, or perhaps because of it, Americans are becoming acutely
aware that being rich and growing richer does not solve all of our problems.
The realization that we expect more than the economy can produce, productive as it is, points the way to the real problem, which is to make sure
that the output is used efficiently to meet our most important needs. There
is a growing sense that the limited national output is not being used in this
way.
The focusing of increased attention on how the national output is divided
comes after a generation in which it had seemed that the country could
make a quantum jump in available output that would dramatically improve the quality of life. In fact, for a time this was true. During the
1930's, when the Nation was producing far below its economic capacity,
we expected that our needs could be satisfied by the return of production
to reasonably full employment. During World War II, when the economy
actually operated at capacity, private citizens could foresee a large increase
in the output available to them after the war.
Later, in the 1950's and early 1960's, many people were impressed with
the possible contribution that a "small" increase in the annual rate of
economic growth—from 3 or 4 percent to 5 or 6 percent—would make to
providing the output available for every kind of purpose. "Faster growth"
became the source from which all new claims on the national output would
be met. But in time this was seen to be largely an illusion. The basic fullemployment growth path of an economy is not readily raised by any of the
policy instruments that we now know about. The country could count on
sustained growth to increase its capacity for doing many things. It could not
count on being able to boost the growth rate at will to support every new
claim.




72

Although the necessity to confine total uses of output to a growing but
limited productive capacity is becoming more recognized in principle, it tends
to be ignored in practice. This is obvious in Federal Government policy
involving claims on resources. Even when the economy is operating at
fairly full employment it is possible to increase Government expenditures,
to reduce taxes, and to finance Government borrowing by monetary
expansion. This may seem to provide an escape from the limitation on
resources and the necessity for hard choices that all individuals and State
and local governments face. But in fact it does not. All it does is
let inflation choose which demands are satisfied and which are not. A mature people can find a better way to make these choices. The basic problem
is to make better decisions about the uses of the national output. This
chapter discusses the role of the Federal Government in this process.
The attention given here to the Federal Government's role in allocating
the national output may seem excessive for a nation committed to a freemarket, decentralized economic system. The idea that the Federal Government must make hard decisions to allocate the limited resources within
its own budget is commonplace. The idea that it does or should influence
the allocation of the output of the entire economy is not. However, the Federal Government does have an important influence on decisions about
the use of resources in the private, as well as the Government sector. Perhaps
that influence should not be as big or as detailed as it is. Nevertheless a
large influence exists, and much of it is inevitable or desirable or both. This
influence should be recognized, its effects appraised, and decisions consciously made to achieve the effects that are preferred.
In 1969 the Federal Government purchased and used, mainly for defense, 11 percent of the gross national product. The remainder, except for
a small amount of net exports, was used for personal consumption, for
private investment, and for State and local government purposes. The Federal Government was a major influence in the division of the remainder
among these three categories and within them. While it purchased only about
11 percent of the national output for its own use, it collected about 20 percent
of the national output in taxes and social insurance contributions. It returned the difference to State and local governments in grants, to households
in transfer and interest payments, and, since there was a budget surplus, to
private capital markets for investment through repayment of Government
debt. Grants to State and local governments to finance purchases (as
opposed to transfer payments) were about 13 percent of their purchases.
Federally financed transfer and interest payments to persons were equal to
about 11 percent of consumer expenditures. The funds supplied by the
Federal surplus to capital markets and available for private investment were
6 percent of gross private domestic investment. The relative amounts of
these flows, and the taxes used to raise the revenues, substantially affected
the division of the available output among these three broad categories.
Federal decisions also influence the division of the output within these
categories. The Federal Government not only provides the States and




73

localities with billions of dollars in grants, but it provides these grants
through hundreds of separate programs for specific purposes. The taxes
it collects from households and the transfers it pays to them come from and
go to particular classes of persons, and thus affect the distribution of income
and the composition of consumer spending. Taxes levied on specific items,
such as automobiles or alcoholic beverages, also affect what is consumed.
Facilities and services provided by the Federal Government stimulate
private consumption or investment expenditures that are complementary
with them or curtail private expenditures that are competitive with them.
For example, Federal expenditures on highways encourage private expenditures for automobiles and trucks.
THE DEGISIONMAKING PROCESS
The Federal Government has a large and pervasive influence on the
allocation of the national output. Its decisions in this role fundamentally
affect the national welfare. There can be no single, scientifically determined
"best" allocation of the national output. Differences of interest, value, and
opinion among people are inevitable, and they are not of a character that
can be resolved objectively. They must, however, be reconciled, and it is
the function of the political democratic process to do this.
Given the distribution of interests and the location of powers to make
decisions, there is still much that needs to be done to reach better decisions—
to make sure that as far as possible the consequences of decisions are known
and are taken into account as they are made. Decisionmakers need to
know the longrun as well as the immediate results of what they do, and
the indirect as well as the direct results. They need to see the options that
are open to them, and there must be an opportunity for differing viewpoints to confront each other. The effort to improve decisionmaking has a
long history, in which the establishment of the modern budget, the consolidation of the Appropriations Committees in Congress, the development of the
Executive Office of the President, and the creation of the Council of Economic Advisers were milestones.
THE LEVEL OF DEGISIONMAKING
One basic requirement for good choices about the use of the national
output is, of course, that they should be made at the right level and
by the right people. The mere size of the Federal Government will influence the division of decisionmaking between it and the non-Federal—
private, State, and local—parts of the community. There is a strong case
for holding down that size in order not to load responsibilities on the
Federal Government beyond its capacity to discharge them, as well as for
other reasons. The character of the Federal activities is probably as important as their volume in determining the location of decisionmaking. For
example, Federal tax policy inescapably influences the total amount of




74

consumption expenditures by private households, but some kinds of taxes
go further and influence the composition of consumption. Similarly, the Federal Government probably cannot avoid influencing the total rate of private
investment, but different Federal policies can involve more or less Federal
influence over the character of the investment.
The problem of the appropriate level of decisionmaking has become
critically important in the relations between the Federal Government and
the States and localities. The amount of Federal financial assistance to
the lower levels of government has grown markedly in the postwar period.
This growth has raised the question whether the Federal Government should
be a neutral supplier of funds or should attempt to determine how States
and localities use these funds, and their own. Undoubtedly there is room
for some Federal intervention in the decisionmaking process. However,
grants for highly specified purposes have reached a degree of detail which
is neither necessary nor efficient.
The Administration has proposed to alter the Federal-State-local relationship by instituting a system of revenue sharing, through which the
Federal Government would supply funds without dictating their use. In
addition the Administration has asked for authority to consolidate some
of the innumerable specific grant programs when they relate to similar
functions. In these ways it is hoped to improve the overall decisionmaking
process.
BUDGETARY BALANCE AS DISCIPLINE
Balancing the Federal budget has long been a symbol and instrument
of discipline in Government decisionmaking. The requirement that if some
expenditures are raised others must be cut or taxes must be increased has
forced Government officials to count the costs of expenditures. In recent
years the Nation has become more sophisticated about budget deficits and
surpluses. It has learned that the size of the surplus or deficit will and
should vary with economic conditions. It is now learning that the longrun
average size of the surplus or deficit should be determined by the amount
of savings it is desired to make available for private business and housing
investment in total. But this does not reduce the relevance or value of the
budget-balancing discipline.
Once the appropriate longrun average size of the surplus or deficit has
been determined, that goal should not be changed except upon reconsideration of the longrun objectives. Shortrun fluctuations in private demand
will sometimes require offsetting temporary changes in tax rates or Federal
expenditures. And the size of any specific year's surplus or deficit will inevitably depart from the target level as a result of economic fluctuations, even
with tax rates unchanged and expenditures at longrun levels. But achieving
the desired average budget position over a period of years means that on the
average expenditures can grow only as fast as full-employment revenues.




75

Beyond that, expenditure increases in one area must be matched by expenditure cuts in another, or by increased taxes. In principle, every decision on
Government expenditures should reopen the question of the desirable size of
the surplus or deficit. In fact, Government cannot operate that way. The
objectives served by the surplus or deficit, although important, are remote
and indirect. These objectives will suffer if they are implicitly reevaluated
every time an expenditure decision is made. In their day-to-day decisions
about spending, Government officials need to be confronted with costs that
are obviously and directly within their purview and responsibility. This means
that they must at least count costs that appear in the form of tax and expenditure requirements to meet a given surplus or deficit target.
The budgetary discipline in the Federal Government can only be selfdiscipline. If the old symbolism of the balanced budget is losing its force, a
new understanding of its value must replace it.
TOWARD IMPROVING FEDERAL DECISIONS
Although a budgetary rule that requires the balancing of additional
expenditures against additional revenues has an essential role in Federal
decisionmaking, it is by itself far from a sufficient guide to the discharge of
the Federal Government's fiscal responsibility. This rule tends to focus
attention on the shortrun aspects of what are also longrun commitments.
It forces the counting of costs, but it does not provide realistic information
on what the costs are. It concentrates on choices among uses of the relatively
small part of the national output that is within the budget without adequately revealing the effects that the choices will have on the larger part
that is outside the budget.
This Administration has taken several important steps to improve decisions about the allocation of resources. The President established in July
1969 the National Goals Research Staff to identify alternative goals important to Americans and to study long-range social trends of significance for
national policy. The Cabinet level Urban Affairs and Rural Affairs Councils
and the Cabinet Committee on Economic Policy are interagency groups the
President has formed to coordinate the development of policy. The Defense
Program Review Committee, on which the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and the Director of the Bureau of the Budget serve, helps to
assure that the broad picture of total national resources and claims enters
into the process of decisionmaking for defense.
As a further step toward improving the organization of the Executive
Branch for making its major policy decisions, including those which importantly affect the allocation of the national output, the President established the President's Council on Executive Organization—the Ash Council.
In 1965, a new effort was inaugurated throughout the Government, in
the planning-programing-budgeting system, to evaluate more objectively




the costs and benefits of existing and proposed programs. Building on this
beginning, the Administration is now focusing economic analysis primarily
upon major policy issues. By examining especially carefully the most important programs, scarce analytical resources are economized; thus analysis
can penetrate further into the decisionmaking process. Potential savings
from improved decisions can be large.
Analysis of the possible implications of proposed decisions before they
are taken is, although speculative, obviously necessary. Equally necessary,
and somewhat less speculative, is evaluation of the results of decisions after
they have been taken. Persistent efforts to evaluate existing programs are
necessary if the Nation is going to be able to do the new things it wants to do.
One of the steps in this direction was the President's instruction to the Office
of Economic Opportunity to establish a research and evaluation office
capable of independent appraisal of Federal social programs affecting the
disadvantaged. Evaluation of the results of Government programs remains
one of the most urgent needs of Government as it seeks to make effective
decisions about the use of resources.
Besides assessing the full costs and benefits of Federal programs,
agencies must take into account the time pattern in which benefits and costs
of programs occur. The Government, like private firms and individuals,
must recognize that benefits are worth more if they occur today rather than
tomorrow. Accordingly, agencies have been directed to apply a discount
factor to all programs which have costs or benefits that occur 3 or more
years in the future. Studies have been undertaken to determine the appropriate factors to use in this kind of calculation. In addition, explicit account
is being taken of risks involved in public projects.
The Administration is seeking to formulate the larger choices it faces
in the allocation of national output in the light of the competing options.
Among the most important steps in this direction have been the interrelated studies conducted through the National Security Council and the
Cabinet Committee on Economic Policy. These studies examined alternative
defense strategies with their associated costs and alternative nondefense
Federal programs. Various defense strategies were translated with rough
accuracy into a large number of possible forces and budgets. Similarly, alternative nondefense Federal programs were developed. The studies revealed
the probable effects of different combinations of defense and nondefense
programs on private consumption, housing, other investment, and State
and local expenditures, given the limit set by potential national output.
These studies in the Cabinet Committee have also explored trade-offs among
various nondefense programs within resources that will be available from
continued economic growth and assumed reductions in defense expenditures. All of these studies have served as background for consideration of
long-range revenue and expenditure decisions.
372-111 O—70



6

77

FUTURE NATIONAL OUTPUT AND THE CLAIMS UPON IT
The last few pages have discussed mainly the budgetary rules and decisionmaking procedures that might improve Federal Government decisions.
These decisions affect the use of the entire national output, as was pointed
out in this chapter's introduction. The substance of the priorities problem is to allocate the future national output among alternative uses in a
rational way that reflects decisions about national priorities. This tailoring
of Federal decisions concerning allocation to a view of national priorities
requires—
1. An estimate of what the future national output can be.
2. A view of the claims upon the national output—the things we would
like to do with it—that are eligible for serious consideration.
3. A view of the policy measures that would be necessary to bring about
satisfaction of some claims rather than others.
4. A decision about the claims to be satisfied and the policies to carry out
the decision.
Step 4 in this process must, of course, ultimately reflect Government
decisionmaking at the highest level. This section undertakes a tentative
approach to the first three steps. No one can now confidently draw comprehensive and detailed conclusions on these first three steps. But even
the rough and preliminary estimates presented here reveal much about the
priorities problem confronting the Nation and establish the need for further
efforts to analyze it.
Projections of available future output and the potential claims on it
can move discussion of the priorities problem from vague and sometimes
easily ignored knowledge to the concrete realization of just how limited
the available output will be. First, a projection will be made of available
output—GNP in real terms for the years 1970-75. Then visible claims on
this output by consumers, governments, and business will be projected.
Adding up these claims and comparing the total to available GNP will
indicate the magnitude of the priorities problem. The projections will also
provide a framework for discussing various policy alternatives that would
meet various sets of claims on the output.
The principal objective of this section, therefore, is to estimate the claims
against GNP and to show how different patterns of allocation of the GNP
can be achieved. Since it is assumed throughout that the projected real GNP
is in fact achieved, the only problem discussed here is how the GNP is to
be allocated. The projected GNP can be achieved by any one of a number
of different combinations or "mixes" of fiscal and monetary policy, which
will differ in the allocation of the total GNP that results from them. In
these terms this section is concerned with which mix will give a desired
allocation of the total GNP. In the short run, this is probably an exaggeration of the choices available; the number of mixes consistent with economic
stability may be more limited. But for the long run, which is the appropriate




78

context of this analysis, the assumption of a given GNP achievable with
any of a large variety of policy mixes and resource allocations is reasonable.
Since the problem here is allocation of a projected real GNP as it moves
along its growth path, the projections are made in constant 1969 prices.
This does not imply any forecast about the price level; rather the assumption
keeps the focus on the allocation problem.
POTENTIAL AND PROJECTED GNP
The output the economy would be capable of producing when operating
at an unemployment rate of about 3.8 percent—called here potential output—is estimated to rise by about 4.3 percent per year in real terms.
This results from projected growth of the labor force at 1% percent per
year, a decline in annual average hours of work per person of onequarter of 1 percent per year, and an increase of output per man-hour
in the total economy of 2.8 percent per year. Projected available output
is assumed to be below potential from 1970 until 1972, as a result of policies
to slow inflation, but to equal potential output thereafter.
The resulting illustrative projections of available GNP at 1969 prices
are shown at the top of Table 13.
CLAIMS ON THE NATIONAL OUTPUT
To list uses of the national output which though desirable would exceed potential output is. not difficult. But that is not the purpose here.
The purpose is to present the claims that already exist. The largest part of
the claims is found in the usual consumption behavior of households, given
the incomes they would be earning and the taxes they would be paying, and
in the investment behavior of businesses, given the total output and demand
projected. Other claims exist in the form of ongoing Government programs,
goals stated in legislation, and proposals made by the Administration.
TABLE 13.—Gross national product, 1969 and projections for 1970-75
[Billions of dollars, 1969 prices; calendar years]
Projections
Claim

1969,
actual
1970

1972

1971

1973

1974

1975

Gross national product available

932.3

944

980

1,042

1,103

1,150

1,200

Claims on available GNP .

932.3

944

980

1,042

1,100

1,144

1,188

102.0

93

89

88

87

87

86

131

137

142

Federal Government purchases.
State and local government
purchases
...
Personal consumption expenditures
Gross private investment

112.7

116

120

125

576.0
141.7

594
141

620
152

664
166

704
178

735
186

769
192

Business fixed investmentResidential structures
Other investment

99.3
32.2
10.1

103
29
10

105
34
14

111
40
15

116
46
16

120
49
17

125
49
18

.0

0

0

0

-3

-6

Excess of claims

-12

Note.—Projections are based on projected Federal expenditures (see Table 14) and their influence on various components of GNP.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Council of Economic Advisers.




79

Large claims not recognized in these estimates exist and new ones will
emerge. However, it is sufficient here to show that the existing, visible, and
strongly supported claims already exhaust the national output for some
years ahead. This is not to say that no other claims will be satisfied, or that
claims included in these calculations should have preference over claims
not recognized here. The basic point is that if other claims are to be satisfied
some of those recognized here will have to be sacrificed.
The projection of claims on the national output shown here corresponds
to a projection of Federal spending. Federal spending affects not only the
Federal Government's own purchases of goods and services but also the
purchases of State and local governments, through Federal grants to them,
and the purchases of consumers, through Government transfer payments.
The method of estimating the claims is described briefly here and in more
detail in the Appendix to this chapter.
1. The estimate of Federal spending includes a baseline projection of the
costs of the Federal Government's 1970 program, in 1969 prices, and the
costs of new programs already proposed by the Administration. The baseline
adjusts the 1970 program for changes related to population, workload,
and pay increases in 1969 dollars. The new initiatives, shown separately
in Table 14, project the 1969 dollar costs of proposed new programs,
such as the Family Assistance Program and Revenue Sharing, and proposed
expansion of existing programs.
2. State and local spending is the estimated consequence of projected
growth of GNP (in 1969 prices) and population to 1975 plus the grants
included in the Federal expenditure projections of Table 14.
3. Personal consumption is the expenditure that would result from the
amount of income that households would have available if the projected
GNP at 1969 prices were produced, present tax laws remained in force (with
the income tax surcharge expiring June 30, 1970), and governments made
the transfer payments included in the government expenditure projections.
TABLE 14.—Projections of Federal expenditures, national income accounts basis, 1970-75
[Billions of dollars, 1969 prices; calendar years]

Priority category
Federal expenditures.
Baseline
Purchases of goods and services.
Transfer payments to persons i__
Grants-in-aid
Other
New initiatives.
Purchases of goods and services.
Transfer payments to persons i__
Grants-in-aid
Other

1970

1971

1973

1972

1975

19
8

12
9

16
9

20
0

24
0

206

18
8

16
8

16
8

18
8

10
9

191

92
56
22
19

88
59
22
16

87
62
22
15

86
65
23
14

85
68
23
14

84
70
24
14

1

6

1
0

1
2

1
4

15

1
0
0
0

1
3
2
0

1
6
3
0

1
6
5
0

2
5
6
0

2
5
7
0

1

Excludes transfer payments to foreigners, which are included under "Other."
Note.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Bureau of the Budget.




1974

8o

It is assumed that personal saving is 6.5 percent of personal disposable
income.
4. Residential construction expenditures are the amounts consistent with
reaching the goal specified in the Housing and Urban Development Act of
1968 along the path of housing construction shown in the Second Annual
Report on National Housing Goals.
5. Business fixed investment in real terms is estimated to decline as a
fraction of privately produced real GNP from 12 percent, which it has
averaged since 1966, to 11.5 percent by 1975. This would continue the
downward trend of the ratio of capital stock to real output experienced
since World War II.
6. The two other components of real GNP—inventory investment and
net exports—are both projected to rise slowly with their total growing from
$10.1 billion in 1969 to $18 billion in 1975 (in 1969 prices).
BALANCING CLAIMS AND RESOURCES
The results of these calculations are summarized at the bottom of Table
13 in the figures on the excess of claims over resources. The projected claims,
which assume no addition to present Federal nondefense programs beyond
those already proposed by the Administration, would approximately absorb
all available resources through 1973 and leave room for significant additions only by 1975.
The basic lesson of the estimates is that the country is already at a point
where, despite prospective rapid growth of output, a decision to satisfy
an existing claim on a larger scale or to satisfy a new claim will require
giving up something on which people are already counting.
These estimates are based on a number of assumptions which may turn
out to be wide of the mark. Even a generous allowance for errors in the
assumptions, however, is unlikely to change the fundamental picture. And
some of the assumptions may themselves be optimistic. If potential output
grew by only 4.0 percent rather than 4.3 percent, the excess of claims
would increase, but only slightly, because consumption expenditures and
business investment, which amount to about 80 percent of total claims,
would also be smaller. On the other hand, the excess of available output
over claims would be a little larger, about $4 billion more in 1975 (in
1969 prices), if personal savings were 7 percent of disposable income instead of the 6.5 percent assumed here. This is possible, but it is no more
likely than that the personal savings rate should turn out to be 6 percent,
which would increase claims on available output. Other departures from
the assumptions are possible—certainly there will be some—but none seems
sufficiently large or probable to change the conclusion. Moreover, there
is little reason to expect that these departures will all be in the same
direction.
Inability to meet all the visible claims would not deny that the country
is rich and growing richer. The most comprehensive index of the economic




8i

condition of the population—real per capita personal consumption—would
rise about 3^4 percent per year under the Table 13 projections, compared
to 2J/2 percent per year in the period 1957 to 1967. The conclusion is simply
that choices must be made.
In fact, of course, choices will be made. The total of satisfied claims
cannot exceed the available output. Policies, whether of omission or commission, will determine which claims get satisfied and which do not. The
following discussion of ways in which claims and resources can be brought
into balance is not intended to support any particular claims or any particular ways of meeting them. It is only intended to illustrate the options
that are permitted and not permitted by the arithmetic of the economic
system.
If the projections of output prove reasonably accurate, and Federal
expenditures run at the projected level, or higher, with taxes unchanged,
trimming of claims on output would fall mainly on investment. Private
saving, together with the Federal surplus, would be inadequate to finance
all the private investment claims shown here through 1973. Interest rates
would rise, and, while this might stimulate saving, the main effect would
be to make funds scarce and expensive and keep some investment demands
from being met. Since housing is more sensitive to the supply of funds than
other investment, the shortfall would probably be relatively larger in
housing. If, however, the shortfall occurred in capital outlays of businesses,
productivity would tend to be adversely affected, and the economy's rate
of growth would lag.
Government policy could bring about a different pattern of resource
allocation. If it were desired to do so, the combined investment claims shown
here could be satisfied by either of two approaches, or some combination
of them. One would be to hold Federal expenditures down, below the level
projected here through 1973 and not too much higher thereafter. Federal
purchases of goods and services would be lower, and State and local purchases and consumers' purchases would also be lower as a result of smaller
grants and transfer payments. With purchases in these categories lower, more
of the national output would be available for investment. As a corollary to
this, there would be a larger budget surplus, which would make more funds
available to finance private investment. To obtain the same level of
investment with higher Federal expenditures, the second alternative would
be to raise taxes to restrict private consumption, thus releasing resources
for investment and sustaining the budget surplus needed to finance investment. These methods of generating a surplus to finance a desired total of
private investment would not in themselves assure any particular division of
the total between business investment and housing.
What has been said about the combination of taxes and expenditure
programs that would be required to permit satisfaction of the private investment claims implies a certain relationship between the Federal surplus and
private investment. The surplus must be large enough, when added to pri-




82

vate saving, to finance the private investment. The higher the private
investment desired, the larger, in general, will be the budget surplus required. This is the main longrun implication of a budget surplus.
The additional surplus that would be required to support an additional
amount of private investment, say $1 billion, would probably be larger than
$1 billion if the additional surplus is created by raising taxes to reduce
consumer spending. This is because the higher taxes will probably reduce
private saving somewhat, and the surplus must be large enough to cover
the additional investment desired plus the loss of private saving. Thus, on
the assumption used in this section that personal saving is 6.5 percent of
personal income after tax, additional personal taxes and a further surplus
of $1.07 billion would be required to increase the total of private saving
and the surplus by $1 billion.
These are propositions about the national income accounts budget, which,
unlike the unified budget, does not include as an outlay the net lending of
the Federal Government. To the extent that net lending of the Federal
Government to finance private investment is already included in the unified
budget as outlays, the surplus that would be required in the unified
budget would be smaller. The required surplus would be the excess (if any)
of desired private investment over private saving plus Government net
lending. That would not, however, affect the amount of taxes that would be
required to bring about a given amount of private investment. It would only
mean that part of the taxes would be used to finance the Government lending, rather than the repayment of Federal debt which would permit private
lenders to supply more funds to private investment.
CONCLUSIONS
The estimates of this section are, of course, hypothetical calculations based
on inevitably somewhat arbitrary assumptions. The costs of programs now on
the books may turn out to be different from projections used here. Moreover, programs now in being can be modified or eliminated if people
decide that costs are excessive or that other things are more important.
The capability of the economy to grow may be different from what has
been assumed. Nevertheless, for all of their necessarily hypothetical character, these estimates do highlight three important points that have
major implications for fiscal policy. First, existing claims upon the growing
available national output already exhaust the probable output and real
national income that the economy can generate for several years to come.
The satisfaction of a new claim, therefore, necessarily will require the
rejection of another claim which now exists. Second, the Federal Government's fiscal policies will directly affect which claims on our national income
are satisfied—not only the direct Federal claims but also State, local, and
private claims. Federal actions that increase State, local, or private
expenditures—even if those actions are not reflected in the Federal budget—




83

generate claims against the national output. Therefore, the Federal Government should be concerned that its extrabudgetary as well as its budgetary
actions do not generate excessive claims or do not cause more important
uses of the national output to be displaced by less important ones. Third,
the level of private investment in business plant and equipment, and particularly in housing, is necessarily directly affected by decisions that determine the character of the budget and the target for a longrun average
surplus or deficit. The budget and the budget surplus should not be regarded
merely as conventional symbols of sound finance; they have a profoundly
important functional role in achieving national goals.

APPENDIX

Basis for Estimates of Output and Claims
POTENTIAL AND PROJECTED GNP
The available total output by years from 1970 to 1975 is estimated in two
stages, one yielding potential output and the second yielding projected available output.
Potential output is considered to be the output the economy would produce when operating at a 3.8 percent unemployment rate. This is slightly
above the rate in the last half of 1969 when actual output was considered to be close to the potential. The annual growth of real potential output is determined by the growth of the labor force, estimated at 1% percent per year, the decline in annual average hours of work per person,
estimated at one-quarter of 1 percent per year, and the growth of output
per man-hour. In the private sector of the economy, output per man-hour is
estimated to grow by about 3.1 percent per year—less than in the early
1960's when resource utilization rose, but more than in 1965-69 when the
economy operated under excessive demand pressure. Allowance for the fact
that productivity growth in the Government sector, which produces about
9 percent of national output, is zero by definition (because Government
output is measured by labor input) reduces the overall productivity growth
rate to about 2.8 percent per year. Combined with the estimates of labor
input, this yields about a 4.3 percent rate of growth of potential real GNP.
Projected available real output lies below potential output from 1970 to
1972 because some gap between actual and potential output is necessary to
slow down inflation. A gradual closing of the gap is projected to permit the
potential to be regained without reviving inflation. Potential and projected
real GNP, in 1958 dollars, are shown in Chart 8. Projected available GNP
in 1969 dollars is shown at the top of Table 13.




84

Chart 8

Gross National Product, Actual and Potential
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (ratio scale)*

1,000
GNP IN 1958 PRICES

900
POTENTIAL-1/

800
700

500

400

i i i 1 i i i I i i i 1 i i i i i i i i i i i1 i i i I i i i1 i i i 1 i i iI i i i 1 i i i 1 i i i h i i 1 i i i I i ii

1961

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES.
J / T R E N D L I N E OF 3.5 PERCENT FROM MIDDLE OF 1955 TO 1962 IV, 3.75 PERCENT FROM 1962 IV TO 1965 IV,
4 PERCENT FROM 1965 IV TO 1969 IV, 4.3 PERCENT FROM 1969 IV TO 1970 IV, 4.4 PERCENT FROM 1970 IV
TO 1971 IV, AND 4.3 PERCENT FROM 1971 IV TO 1975 IV.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

CLAIMS ON THE NATIONAL OUTPUT
Federal Expenditure Projections
Federal expenditure projections are presented before those for the private
and State and local government sectors, because the level and nature of
Federal expenditures affect the other expenditure components. The amount
of Federal transfer payments to individuals affects consumer expenditure, and the level of grants affects State and local purchases. Because
of these effects it is convenient to have an initial projection of Federal spending preparatory to making projections of expenditures in the rest of the
economy.
Baseline Expenditures. The cost of the 1970 Federal program, adjusted
for increases in workload and pay increases at 1969 prices, gives the projection of baseline expenditures in Table 14, broken down into purchases
of goods and services, transfer payments, grants, and other expenditures.
The major increases in the baseline are projected for transfer payments,
which rise by $14 billion (in 1969 prices) from 1970 to 1975, and grants to




85

State and local governments, which rise by $2 billion in that period. Much
of the increase in transfers will be due to increased coverage and population
growth, as more people receive checks for social security, disability insurance, and so forth. But part will also be due to higher real benefits. Much of
the increase in grants will come in essentially open-ended programs, such as
Medicaid, in which the Federal Government must provide matching funds
if the States choose to provide funds for the program.
New Initiatives. The costs at 1969 prices of new programs proposed
by the Administration in the Fiscal 1971 Budget are added to the
baseline expenditures to give the projections of Federal expenditures used
here. These in turn are broken down into purchases, transfer payments,
grants, and other expenditures.
The costs of Federal programs at 1969 prices are projected to rise from
$189 billion in 1970 to $206 billion in 1975. Two aspects of these expenditure
projections are especially noteworthy. First, the projections include expansions of transfer and grant programs and a reduction of purchases. Expanded
Federal programs would focus upon providing money to people in transfers, and to States in grants, rather than upon purchasing output directly.
Second, projected Federal expenditures build up rapidly through 1974
and rise less rapidly thereafter. If this path were in fact to materialize, the
claims-resources position would be tighter in the early 1970's, and a bit
easier in the middle 1970's. But this flattening out of the expenditure path
may instead reflect simply the difficulty of seeing more than 3 or 4 years
ahead. As these years arrive, further proposals for new programs or extensions of existing programs can be expected to come forward. Thus it
should probably be assumed that the position will be just as tight in the
middle 197O's as in the next year or so.
State and Local Government Purchases
State and local government purchases of goods and services at 1969 prices
are projected to grow with real GNP, population, and projected levels of
Federal grants-in-aid from 1970 to 1975. Projected growth of these items
yields the estimates of State and local purchases shown in Table 13. In 1969
dollars, State and local purchases are projected to increase from $116
billion in 1970 to $142 billion in 1975, or at an average annual rate of 4
percent. Of the $26 billion increase in State and local purchases from
1970 to 1975, $8 billion is projected to be due to population increases. This
leaves a projected increase of $18 billion over and above the cost of providing State and local services at the present per capita level. This $18
billion represents an increase of 2.8 percent per year in the real per capita
quantity of the services provided by State and local purchases, compared
to the 1962 to 1968 average increase of 3.8 percent.
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer spending is a fairly stable fraction of personal income after
taxes, aside from shortrun variations. Personal income other than transfer




86

payments is assumed to be 73 percent of GNP. Adding to this transfers by
Federal, State, and local governments gives total personal income. Projected
Federal, State, and local personal taxes are subtracted to arrive at disposable
personal income, which is allocated between consumption expenditures,
personal interest and transfer payments, and personal saving.
The projections assume a saving rate of 6.5 percent, and 2.5. percent for
personal interest and transfers, leaving 91 percent for consumer spending.
The projections of consumer expenditures in 1969 prices, based on the projected Federal expenditures, are shown in Table 13.
Two important assumptions in the consumer spending projections should
be noted. First, the 6.5 percent saving rate is near the middle of the 4.97.4 percent range experienced since 1960. Second, the projections in the
table assume present tax law.
Private Investment Demand
The remaining four elements of private demand are estimated independently of the Federal expenditure projections. These are business fixed investment, residential construction, inventory investment, and net exports.
Business Fixed Investment. Since cumulative net business investment
equals capital stock, the projection of investment should yield an accumulated capital stock consistent with the projected GNP path and a reasonable
capital-output ratio.
Since 1966, real business fixed investment has averaged 12 percent of real
private output. It is estimated that if this fraction gradually falls to l l / 2
percent by 1975, the ratio of capital stock to real output would continue
the slow downward trend experienced since World War II. The projections
of business fixed investment in 1969 dollars are shown in Table 13.
Residential Construction. A key area of the projections is residential
construction. Twice in the last half decade homebuilding has been severely
squeezed by the competition of the Federal deficit and high business investment for the supply of private saving. Moreover as Chart 9 shows there
will be a substantial increase in the rate of family formation in the next
5 years. Both because of the backlog of need created by the housing declines
in 1966 and 1969-70 and because of the increased demand for housing
generated by family formation, the number of housing starts is likely to
rise considerably in the early 1970's.
In the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968, Congress stated a
goal of 26 million new housing units to be constructed from fiscal year
1969 to fiscal year 1978. The Second Annual Report on National Housing
Goals to be submitted by the President this month projects a path of
housing construction, including both conventional and mobile homes, to
1978 which will meet the goal and is considered feasible. The conventional




87

Chart 9

Net Family Formation

INCREASE, MILLIONS OF FAMILIES

1.2
1.0

NET INCREASE IN NUMBER
OF FAMILIES WITH HEAD
25-44 YEARS OF AGE

.8
.6
.4
.2

0
-.2
1961

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

housing starts portion of this path, on which the residential construction
projection is based, is shown in Chart 10.
This path of starts gives the residential construction projection in 1969
dollars shown in Table 13. The projection assumes residential construction
expenditures per start (in 1969 dollars) of $21,800— the 1959-68 average—
from 1970 to 1975. This cost figure will turn out to be high if the costreducing potential of Operation Breakthrough, the industrial housing program of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, is fulfilled.
The two small remaining components of GNP—inventory investment
and net exports—are both projected to grow roughly in line with GNP
from 1970 to 1975. Inventory investment along trend is expected to be
roughly a constant fraction of GNP, perhaps 1 percent. This would maintain an approximately constant ratio of stocks to final sales. Net exports
are projected to expand from the 1969 low as the U.S. trade position
improves.
Total Expenditure Projections
The second line of Table 13* "Claims on available GNP,35 which adds
up the expenditure projections assuming projected Federal expenditures,
shows total visible claims oil potential GNP.




88

Chart 10

Housing Starts
MILLIONS OF UNITS*
-PROJECTIONS-

1961

63

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

T O T A L PRIVATE AND PUBLIC. DATA EXCLUDE MOBILE HOME SHIPMENTS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT.

To avoid confusion, it should be noted here that the "Claims on available
GNP" of Table 13 is not the equilibrium GNP in 1969 dollars that would
result if the "exogenous" investment and government expenditures were
realized. This is because consumer spending is projected on the basis of
present tax law, transfer payments in the Federal spending projections, and
available GNP. Thus the difference between available GNP and "Claims on
available GNP" is the reduction in exogenous expenditure needed to bring
the demand for output down to the level of available GNP.




CHAPTER 4

Government and the Market
HIT SHALL BE THE DUTY AND FUNCTION OF THE COUN1 CIL . . . to appraise the various programs and activities of the
Federal Government . . . [and] to develop and recommend to the President national economic policies to foster and promote free competitive
enterprise. . . . " With these words in Section 4, the Employment Act of
1946 makes clear the responsibilities of Government for the vast range of
policies and programs that are concerned with strengthening the vitality
and efficiency of our market economy. This chapter, therefore, focuses on
the essential role of the Government in maintaining a competitive free
market economy and in supplementing the market where necessary to
achieve efficiency and progress.
This role of the Government is especially important today when many
people have become disenchanted with the effects of the Government's
participation in economic life. We rely upon the Government to do more
than ever before, but we grow less and less confident that its ways of discharging the responsibilities placed upon it are the most effective. On
occasion the Government's action has run counter to its responsibility,
restricting rather than promoting competition and failing to observe the
principles of the market economy in the management of its own affairs.
In the main, we depend for the satisfaction of our economic goals on the
voluntary activity of individuals. Traditionally this Nation has accepted the
premise that the individual should be as free as possible to decide for himself what goods and services will be best for him and where and how he will
exercise his own talents and energies in the common productive efforts. By
and large the resultant system serves us well. It has made possible a large
and growing measure of personal liberty, wider job opportunities, and
rising levels of living. Because each of us has considerable freedom in
applying his knowledge and talents, our system is more flexible, innovative,
and progressive than if it were guided in detail by Government edicts.
ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT
An economic system cannot, however, operate in a vacuum. Besides
controlling general monetary and fiscal policies, Government must establish
the necessary framework for economic activity if our free and open economy
is to keep its responsive and effective character.




90

The need for rules of the game concerning contracts, property rights,
fraud, and fair methods of competition is obvious. In the course of time
additional rules have become necessary as our economy and our society
have become increasingly complex. It is necessary to prohibit the sale of
harmful foods and drugs and to proscribe child labor, unsanitary working
conditions, and discrimination in employment. But just as new rules have
become necessary, old rules can become obsolete and hamper our efforts
to realize the capability of the economy.
Since we depend on the private sector to produce the overwhelming proportion of our goods and services, the Government must insure that competition is vigorous and that markets are efficient. Vigorous competition is
the main protection of consumer interests; in most areas of the economy it
helps create efficient markets that respond quickly to the desires of consumers,
and in which costs of production and distribution are kept low. A well
working financial system and well-informed consumers are also necessary
for efficient markets; the Government can and does play a vital role in
these areas.
In a relatively few instances, competition alone may not be sufficient to
protect consumers' interest, or it may not be a possibility. Economies of largescale production may be so great as to leave room for only a few firms—too
few for competition to be effective. Where property rights are poorly defined, competition may lead to the waste of valuable resources or to degradation of the environment. As a result, in these areas elaborate regulations
concerning prices, outputs, and standards of service have been prescribed.
In a few sectors of the economy—agriculture is one example—the ability of
buyers and sellers to respond promptly to shifts in demand or supply may
be so limited that prices fluctuate more widely than is good for either
consumers or producers. In such situations, Government intervention in the
markets may be desirable.
The Government also has a role as a participant in market activity. Some
enterprises, essential to the national well-being or the national defense,
have been confined to governmental operation. Traditionally, the Post Office
has been a Government operation, even though it exists chiefly to provide
a service for which a price is charged and attempts to cover its costs with
its receipts. In other cases, such as the Tennessee Valley Authority, the
commercial activity has been mainly incidental to the principal objective
of the project, which was, in that case, unified resource development in a
region especially hard hit during the Great Depression.
Whatever reason the Government has for engaging in market activity,
it should follow certain.rules to insure that the operation is efficient and its
effects are equitable. Certain operations are, of course, deliberately subsidized to serve essential public objectives; in such cases, it is always good
practice to identify the subsidy explicitly in the budget. Except in these
cases, however, prices should reflect costs if resources are not to be wasted
and users unintentionally subsidized at the expense of others. Rules are also




needed to guide the managers of Government enterprises so that they take
all costs into account, not simply those in their budgets.
The Government is involved, therefore, in economic activity for many
different reasons. It must establish the "rules of the game" for private
participants; it must facilitate competition and improve the efficiency of
markets; it must impose detailed regulations where the market does not offer
sufficient safeguards to consumers' interests because of inevitable monopolistic conditions; and it must establish rules for its own participation in
market activity.
COSTS OF GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION
Generally, this Nation has preferred to limit the rules and regulations
it imposes on individuals and on market operations, in order to encourage
private initiative; and it leaves the burden of proof on any who assert a
need for more governmental involvement. A business in the private sector,
operating under normal competition, has a direct test of how well the
business is doing its job—profits. All companies that are inefficient or put
out products not desired by the public must face the consequences. A
Government agency, a Government operation—or even Government rules—
need not submit to such a direct test. Inefficient operations can limp
along for years without being called to account. Some regulatory rules
that persist protect obsolete or inefficient production. Import quotas, agricultural marketing agreements, and outdated regulations can encourage
or preserve high-cost, badly located, or obsolete facilities with little interference and no direct test of their net value. Indeed, a major problem in
Government's participation in our economic life is that we have developed
no systematic procedure for eliminating obsolete rules, activities, and programs. In principle, and generally in practice, the competitive marketplace
has an answer, and this is one of its crucial advantages. In a competitive
market, if a private company uses productive resources inefficiently, market
pressures force it to relinquish them. This is one of the reasons why we
should rely as much as possible on the discipline of the market place to
protect the public interest.
Government involvement is not always the best answer—even when private activities are producing undesirable side effects or markets are not
completely efficient. Government regulations are themselves not costless.
Certain provisions in building codes, for instance, were originally intended
to protect consumers by specifying the materials that can be used. Now
that some of the prohibited materials have been improved, these regulations
can result in needlessly higher costs of construction.
The sections below discuss the role of the Government in providing the
framework for efficient markets, the role of the Government when regulation is necessary, and the rules under which the Government should participate in the market.




92

IMPROVING THE EFFICIENCY OF MARKETS
Government has a major role in promoting the efficiency of markets.
Where markets are efficient, prices and output respond swiftly to shifts in
consumer demand. Efficient markets result in reasonable uniformity in the
prices charged by sellers or offered by buyers. Markets that work well also
have low transaction costs; that is, buyers and sellers can conduct transactions swiftly and cheaply.
For efficient markets, it is necessary to have clearly defined and appropriately specified property rights, enforceable contracts, competition,
informed consumers, and a well working monetary system. Where no one
owns scarce resources such as fish in the ocean, oil under the ground, or
radio frequencies, Government regulations are necessary to prevent wasteful exploitation. Some of the problems that result from such common
property resources are treated below in the discussion of regulation.
A similar problem, on which attention is now focusing, is the inadequate
demarcation of public and private property rights in the atmosphere and in
bodies of water. At present most private citizens have little or no legal
recourse against others who cause pollution. Since private property rights
are rarely established for air or water, the Government must find alternative
ways of protecting the environment. These are discussed later in this chapter.
PROMOTION OF COMPETITION
A major role of the Government in providing for efficient markets is to
promote competition. The nature and extent of competition have been
continually changing as our economy has grown. Some changes have made
markets more competitive, others have made them less so. The most notable
change has been the increase in size of markets because of advances in
transportation and communications, the growth of the population, and its
concentration in metropolitan areas. Most firms now compete over a much
wider area and for a much larger sales volume. Consumers find that many
more sellers are seeking their favor. This growth in size of the market leads
toward larger (but not necessarily fewer) firms that are better able to
take advantage of a large market.
As educational levels have risen, buyers have also become better informed
and more sophisticated. On the other hand, products have become more
complex and more difficult to evaluate. Incomes of most consumers have
risen and these increases have made them better able to choose different combinations of products. In every market segment new products and services
are competing vigorously for the consumer's dollar.
The vigor of competition often depends on the number and size of rival
companies offering similar products or services. Although no data exist
for the economy as a whole, data on manufacturing do not support claims
that competition in general is diminishing. Concentration within manufacturing industries has changed little since World War II and may have
372-111 O—70



7

93

declined since 1900. The average share of the market for the largest four
firms among the same 213 manufacturing industries was between 41 and
42 percent in both 1947 and 1966. On average, rough estimates indicate
that the concentrated portion of manufacturing has probably not increased
and may even have decreased since the turn of the century.
Partly as a result of merger and partly as a result of internal growth, however, there has been a steady increase in the proportion of total manufacturing assets controlled by the largest firms in manufacturing. In 1929,
46 percent of the total assets of all manufacturing firms belonged to the
200 largest corporations; in 1968, the comparable figure was 60 percent.
Thus in manufacturing the concentration of ownership of assets by corporations has increased dramatically, while concentration in the share of
markets has not gone up. These conflicting trends apparently result from
an increase in conglomerate activity.
Antitrust
Competition is not always self-sustaining. Collusion on prices, output,
or market share can usually increase profits. Mergers between major competitors will eliminate their rivalry and may reduce competition. Consequently, the antitrust laws have long been accepted as necessary to market
efficiency. This Administration has continued vigorous enforcement. During
1969, 44 cases were brought, of which 20 involved alleged violations of
Section 1 of the Sherman Act (conspiring to restrain trade). There have
been five conglomerate merger cases, some of which involve vertical relationships between buyers and sellers in some product lines. There were 15
cases involving mergers between firms in the same line of business.
The Justice Department is actively pursuing a course designed to apply the
antitrust laws to the changing and expanding economy. For example, in
both the legislative and judicial branches, a broader concept of interstate
commerce has been recognized. In consequence, the Justice Department is
considering whether the antitrust laws apply to transactions, including
those in the service industries, heretofore regarded as intrastate. Indeed,
the Department has recently brought suit to enjoin a county association of
real estate brokers from conspiring to fix minimum commission rates.
Remedies and Sanctions. Enforcement in itself may not be enough, however, if the remedies or sanctions are inadequate. Generally, the remedies now
available to the Department of Justice in civil cases are felt to be adequate.
But some have criticized the Expediting Act, governing appeals in Government civil antitrust cases, because it provides no right of appeal from
the grant or denial of a preliminary injunction. This shortcoming in the law
would be corrected under an Administration bill to revise this Act.
Inflation and the growth in size of companies have lessened the force of
maximum fines for criminal violations of the antitrust laws. Because a corporation can be fined no more than $50,000 for each criminal violation,
regardless of the seriousness of the crime or its cost to the economy, the cor-




94

porate fine is often ineffectual. Accordingly, the major deterrent to price
fixing and other criminal antitrust action has been the threat of treble damage suits and the possibility of jail sentences for company executives. The
Administration has accordingly requested Congress to raise the maximum
fines for corporations to $500,000.
Mergers. A horizontal merger between major firms in an industry can
be at least as effective in eliminating price competition as any agreement between the firms. Mergers, even between competitors, are not per se violations of the law, however, and they may even favor healthy competition.
The ready marketability of a firm may encourage others to become entrepreneurs and establish new enterprises. Mergers may also be an efficient way
of replacing incompetent managements. They may lead to greater economies of scale in production and marketing. And they may make it easier
to transfer resources to the industries or enterprises that can most effectively
employ them. In addition, access to capital markets may be facilitated.
Nonetheless, the law prohibits mergers whose effect ". . . may be substantially to lessen competition, or to tend to create a monopoly." An accomplished effect deleterious to competition need not be proved; it is sufficient
if there is a reasonable likelihood that such an effect will follow.
Problems may arise when a merger involves two firms in the same line
of business that until then had not competed in the same market. A
recent case of this kind involved the merger between Standard Oil of Ohio
(Sohio) and a subsidiary of the British Petroleum Company, Ltd. (BP), operating in the States along the Atlantic seaboard. The Justice Department has
established guidelines for such market extension mergers: A proceeding
will be brought when a company that is one of a few most likely entrants
into a concentrated market joins in a merger with a leading firm in that
market. In this case, because BP was a likely entrant and Sohio, had by far the
largest market share in Ohio, the Department of Justice brought suit. A consent decree has been entered requiring that some of Sohio's stations be divested (sold or exchanged) to other firms, so that they will supply additional
competition. Sohio-BP will now not only operate in the Ohio market but
extend its operations elsewhere. The general effect on competition in the
gasoline retailing market should be beneficial.
Conglomerate mergers are growing in importance. Over two-thirds of
the mergers between 1926 and 1930 were between competitors (horizontal), 8 percent represented market extensions, 5 percent were between
a buyer and the seller (vertical), and only 19 percent were between unrelated firms (conglomerate). In the 1966-68 period the proportion of horizontal mergers fell to 8 percent, the drop being at least partly due to antitrust action, while conglomerate mergers rose to 82 percent of all combinations. These mergers are more difficult to evaluate. They do not increase the
market share of either part of the joint firm. Their effect may be to stimulate competition, but because of its very size, diversity, and financial
strength, the combination may operate to lessen competition.




95

Conglomerate firms can use the profits in one market to subsidize price
wars or promotional expenditures in other markets and so eventually reduce competition. Conglomerates may also be in a position to require suppliers to purchase some goods from other divisions of the conglomerate.
This practice of reciprocity may exclude competitors from a part of the
market.
The Department of Justice has announced that it intends generally to
adhere to its 1968 guidelines, but that it probably will oppose any merger
among the top 200 manufacturing firms or firms of comparable size in other
industries, or any merger by one of the top 200 manufacturing firms with
any leading producer in any concentrated industry. This program is based
upon recent decisions of the Supreme Court condemning mergers that
eliminate significant potential competition, entrench leading firms in concentrated markets, substantially increase the power of large firms to engage
in reciprocity, or further a trend of mergers that would lessen competition.
The staff of the Federal Trade Commission has recently issued a report on
conglomerate mergers. The Commission is planning to continue its study
and to coordinate it with a projected Administration study of economic
concentration, including conglomerate mergers.
Resale Price Maintenance
The Miller-Tydings Act and the McGuire Act, under which resale price
maintenance arrangements established under State law are exempted from
the Sherman Act, reflect a major exception to the antitrust laws and to
the policy of promoting competition. The State laws in question permit a
manufacturer to contract with a retailer not to sell his product or products
for less than a specified amount. In a State with a "nonsigner" clause in its
statute, no retailer is permitted to undercut this price. While the "nonsigner"
clause has been found to violate State constitutions in 18 States, 20 States
with over half the population still have effective resale price maintenance
statutes.
A major objective of permitting resale price maintenance is to protect and
encourage small business by eliminating price competition between retailers
of the same branded product. Resale price maintenance reflects the dilemma
of whether to protect competitors or competition. Generally under resale
price maintenance, manufacturers establish generous margins for retailers as
an inducement to promote their product. But other manufacturers can
quickly counter with similar margins, and they do. Retailers often profit temporarily from these higher gross margins, but competition usually eliminates
the gain by encouraging additional outlets to carry the product, with the
result that sales per store decline. For example, a Justice Department study
found that for eight lines of retailing in States with strong provisions for resale
price maintenance, the sales per store in metropolitan areas were 12 to 34
percent less than in States without any such law. Thus manufacturers receive
at best only a temporary edge from resale price maintenance. Retailers' gains




96

are also eroded over time, but consumers normally will continue to pay
higher prices.
ADEQUATE INFORMATION FOR CONSUMERS
For retail markets to be efficient in providing buyers with the goods
wanted, consumers must have adequate information. Ill-informed consumers
can be defrauded, or they can be misled even when there is no intent to
defraud in the legal sense. Unless he has a technical background and enough
time to evaluate a product fully, the most careful buyer often finds it difficult
to decide what he should purchase. He can perhaps reduce his risk by
keeping strictly to well-known brands and reputable retailers, but this may
cost him the chance to profit by satisfactory low-cost alternatives. Moreover,
on a wide scale this practice could entrench existing manufacturers and
create new barriers against entry into the market.
Often the most effective way to help buyers become well informed is to
require proper labeling. The Truth in Lending Act and the Fair Packaging
and Labeling Act are intended to help the consumer make "value comparisons." In certain instances, however, labeling is impractical, and the Government may need to prescribe standards for certain products. Moreover,
with automobiles and some other products, an unsafe feature poses a danger
not only to the owner but also to others. The Government has therefore
established Federal safety standards for new vehicles, and many States require
periodic safety inspections. Since January 1st, a prospective new car buyer
must be told the stopping distance, acceleration, and the tire reserve load of
a vehicle.
Considerations of safety may require the Government to ban the sale of
certain products altogether rather than rely on the consumer's ability to
protect himself even when provided with adequate information. For example, where complex products like drugs are involved the necessary information may be unintelligible to the layman, and it is simplest and safest
to prohibit their sale unless they are prescribed by physicians.
Increasing public concern about standards for the safety and quality of
products has led to proposals that the Government widen its influence in the
marketplace. Particularly where products represent a potential hazard, there
is obviously a strong case for having the Government set and enforce standards for producers. Nevertheless, we need to evaluate carefully the advantages and disadvantages to the consumer when considering such proposals.
Despite their beneficial intent, their adoption could in some cases have the
undesirable effect of lessening competition among producers—and thus
breaching one of the consumer's most effective defenses. The consumer's
interest may not be served if so much reliability is required that it adds
heavily to the cost. Another possible disadvantage in these restrictions is their
effect on the development of new products. Producers may be uncertain
about how well potential new products or services can meet published standards requiring reliable performance and freedom from other defects. Such




97

uncertainty, together with the threat of costly damage suits, confiscation of
goods, or time-consuming delays in satisfying a multitude of Federal requirements, may inhibit the development of new products and the entry of new
firms into the market to compete with established companies. We must also
consider whether safety is better served by educating consumers in the proper
use of a product rather than making the product completely safe against even
remote contingencies.
The Consumer and the Market
To defend the public from misinformation offered by sellers, the Administration has proposed a Consumer Protection Act. This act would specify
and prohibit many unfair and deceptive practices, such as "bait and switch"
advertising (where the victim is attracted by a low-cost line and then
switched to a more expensive product), passing off used goods as new, and
misrepresenting price reductions. Responsibility for enforcing these prohibitions would lie in a new Consumer Protection Division to be established in
the Department of Justice. The Federal Trade Commission would also have
powers to enforce these prohibitions. As soon as a violation was determined
in a proceeding by either agency, consumers could bring suits individually or
on behalf of a group of consumers for damages in the Federal courts. This
procedure would give consumers effective relief in proven cases of deception
or fraud; at the same time it would protect firms against nuisance suits.
Because information provided by the private market must be reliable, a
Consumer Product Testing Bill has been recommended to Congress. Under
the provisions of this bill, the Office of Consumer Affairs, to be established
in the Executive Office of the President, would review the adequacy of
current methods now used to test consumer products. One purpose of the bill
is to upgrade the tests used by private laboratories when necessary. If test
standards were lacking or deficient, the Government could ask industry to
establish proper ones. If industry were unable to establish acceptable standards by itself, the Government could then identify the standards it believes
should be followed. Firms meeting approved standards would be entitled
to say so in their product promotion activities.
The Consumer and the Government
In the past, the interests of labor, capital, and management have been
well considered in Government deliberations. Consumers are less organized,
however, and they have not always been adequately represented. To help
remedy this defect, the Administration has proposed, as noted above, an
Office of Consumer Affairs and a Consumer Protection Division in the
Department of Justice.
The Office of Consumer Affairs would have broad powers to coordinate
and improve present programs relating to consumers. It would see that the
interests of consumers receive consideration at appropriate levels of the
Federal Government. Among other powers it could conduct research, hold




conferences on consumer problems, and develop a program for the release
and publication on a generic basis of product information derived from the
Federal Government's purchasing expertise. This office may also publish a
Consumer Register which would translate the legal terminology of the
Federal Register into layman's language so that interested consumers would
be properly informed of Federal regulatory proposals and rules.
The Consumer Protection Division would have broad powers of advocacy
and enforcement. It would be authorized to intervene in any proceedings
by Federal agencies which affect consumer interests, as the Antitrust Division now does in proceedings which affect competition. It would thus offer
a counterweight in formal hearings to the briefs filed on behalf of producers.
PROTECTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT
The existing rules of the game governing the economic system were not
primarily designed to deal with our common responsibility for the environment in which we live. As public concern for the environment increases, the
demand for appropriate rules, and for Government action if these rules fail,
becomes more pressing. The environment is threatened when the wastes
originating in a factory, home, or automobile find their way to the outside
world, or when outsiders are bothered by noise, odors, or unsightliness. The
following discussion will be confined to pollution caused by wastes, though
some of the remarks also apply to other forms.
The problems created by wastes can be handled by five general approaches.
They can be left to nature; the public sector can dispose of wastes at general
expense; standards can be imposed to prevent or reduce pollution; the costs
of reducing pollution can be shared by the Government and the polluter; or
incentives to control pollution can be developed by levying special charges on
emissions. Each of these approaches, which can be used in combination, has
its advantages and disadvantages.
As long as pollution is insignificant it is possible to ignore wastes and their
consequences. This traditional approach depends primarily on the ability
of the environment to clean itself or to absorb wastes without unduly harmful effects. But the quantity of wastes has now become so great that pollution
is affecting peoples' lives noticeably. Air pollution, for example, is not only
unpleasant but has a measurable impact on death and morbidity rates. Water
pollution has prevented millions from utilizing rivers, lakes, and ocean fronts
for recreational activity and has interfered with farming and commercial
fishing. In addition, water pollution and the residues of fertilizers and pesticides are held responsible for undesirable changes in the ecology.
Consequently, the Government has found it necessary to develop programs
to deal with pollution. Water pollution has normally been handled by treating wastes before releasing them to the environment. The public costs of
treatment have traditionally been borne most heavily by local authorities,
although recently the Federal and State shares have increased. Most treatment of industrial wastes is performed by industrial firms through their own




99

treatment plants, but some firms release their effluents untreated or rely on
municipal systems. In the latter case it is important to charge for treatment;
if the direct costs of dealing with pollution are charged to the general taxpayer rather than to the polluter, there is no incentive to reduce pollution.
The backbone of pollution abatement programs for both water and air
pollution utilizes the resrulatorv approach. Under the Air Quality Act of
1967, air quality standards for stationary sources of emissions are being established for control regions throughout the Nation. Subject to the approval of
the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, standards are established by the States and an implementation program is drawn up. A
special regulatory scheme, enacted to cover motor vehicles, requires that new
cars can be sold in the United States onlv if emissions complv with standards
specified by HEW. Under the Water Quality Act of 1965, water quality
standards are being set for all parts of interstate and coastal waters, under
a similar Federal-State partnership. For example, each section of a river is
designated for a particular use, such as water supply, swimming, fish production, etc., and the standards are set to achieve that quality. All States have
developed water quality standards and enforcement procedures which have
been approved, at least in part, by the Secretary of the Interior. The cost of
complying with these standards normally falls on the polluter and in some
cases on municipalities aided by Federal and State grants.
A related and supplemental method of pollution abatement would be to
provide some form of cost sharing payment for individuals or firms to reduce
the pollution they cause. Such payments might conceivably take the form of
tax concessions on the costs of pollution abatement methods. A stronger incentive is provided by taxes on effluents or treatment fees, which can lead
firms to change their processes or install new equipment to reduce their effluents. The cost of pollution would then be charged to those who cause it, and
as a result they may decide to reduce or eliminate their discharge of wastes.
In some water pollution cases, however, economies of scale may make it
more economical for a public agency to deal with the wastes than it would
be for the individual polluters. Who should provide abatement equipment,
and how, depends both on the cost of treatment and on the costs to the
environment of the pollution. In some cases regulation combined with tax
incentives may be most efficient and equitable. In other cases effluent charges
may be appropriate.
REGULATION
Regulation has been imposed for two purposes: to make the market perform more satisfactorily and as a substitute for competition. In the financial
area it is particularly important that markets work well, not only for
stabilization purposes but also to insure that product and labor markets are
efficient.




ioo

GOVERNMENT AND THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Throughout our history the Government has been involved in regulation
of the financial markets. Such regulation serves three broad purposes: (1) It
provides for an appropriate money supply and efficient operation of the payments system; (2) it protects the public from loss due to financial failures, as
well as from misrepresentation and fraud; and (3) it encourages and subsidizes the allocation of credit to particular sectors. Achievement of the first
two objectives increases the efficiency of markets. The third is aimed at using
regulation to accomplish other policy objectives.
A well-functioning payments system is vital to the economy, as the banking panics of 1933 and earlier periods forcefully remind us. The Constitution
authorizes Congress "to coin Money [and] regulate the Value thereof,"
an authority that has been broadly construed. The United States has established a variety of regulations and agencies for controlling the creation of
money and the operation of commercial banks and other depository institutions. For example, the Federal Government issues currency, charters banks,
imposes reserve requirements, oversees foreign exchange operations, insures
deposits, prohibits interest on checking accounts, and sets ceilings on the
rates to be paid on time and savings deposits.
The stock market crash of 1929 and some financial malpractices that
subseouently came to light created doubts about relying solely on the general
laws of contract in financial markets. Since 1933, Congress has aided
the investing public by enacting laws curbing unethical financial practices
and by making pertinent information more accessible. The Securities and
Exchange Commission was established to formulate and enforce requirements relating to operations of securities exchanges and the disclosure of
information about publicly issued and traded stock (later extended to
bonds). To protect public shareholders, Federal legislation also restricts
and requires publication of the trading of stock by corporate "insiders."
The Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and the Truth in Lending Act are
examples of laws designed to improve the information upon which the public
bases financial decisions.
Problems of Financial Regulation
While the ultimate objectives of Federal involvement in the financial
sector are clear, the problems and costs do not always receive sufficient
attention. The direct costs to the Government and the public of imposing
restrictions on financial institutions may not seem large, but an important
cost easily overlooked, because it is difficult to quantify, stems from the
inflexibility of regulations once they are issued. Regulations devised for
an earlier economic environment can stifle innovations and new developments in today's market. Examples are the restrictions on branch banking
imposed by many States, which Federal law makes applicable also to
national banks; the geographical and portfolio restrictions on savings and
loan associations, which are particularly onerous when their potential market




IOI

has been shifting to new areas; and restrictions on commercial banks that
hamper them in meeting emerging demands for new services.
Sometimes regulations created to protect the public against malpractices
are extended and used to restrict new entry into a market. Regulations
also often prescribe or support minimum or maximum prices. The Investment Company Act of 1940 in effect establishes a resale price maintenance
law for mutual funds that prevents retail dealers of mutual funds from
charging lower commissions. Minimum brokerage fees set by major stock
exchanges are currently under review. Many financial regulations distort
credit flows by imposing interest-rate ceilings on mortgages and deposits.
The problem is to make certain that "fairness" in setting rates does not
put an umbrella over inefficiency, and that "soundness" in financial institutions does not become a pretext for impeding competition and innovation.
Deposit-Rate Ceilings as a Case History. An example of the problems
created by the inflexibility of regulation can be found in recent developments
arising from interest-rate ceilings on time and savings deposits at commercial
banks and other financial institutions. Authorized by the Banking Acts of 1933
and 1935, these ceilings were intended to prevent banks from paying more
interest on deposits than "sound" banking would warrant. The fear was that
banks might otherwise make high-rate but risky loans (to cover excessive
interest rates on their deposits) and would thus become vulnerable to default
whenever business activity weakened. There was also concern that, in a
system composed of thousands of banks, competition for funds on a rate
basis might draw funds away from many individual institutions and seriously
weaken them. In reality, the ceilings made very little difference until the
mid-1950's, because interest rates on all assets remained very low and the
deposit rates actuallv paid remained below the ceilings.
In later years, these ceilings on deposit rates at commercial banks have
come to serve quite different purposes than those originally contemplated.
In particular, thev are viewed as a device to ensure a larger flow of funds
into home building, because they help protect savings and loan associations,
a mainstay of home financing. These associations, specializing in mortgages,
have attracted deposits by paving a slightly higher return than commercial
banks, which are prevented by the ceilings from offering competitive rates.
Because of the slow turnover of the long-term mortgage holdings of savings
and loan associations, however, these institutions were not in a position, as
interest rates rose rapidly in the past several years, to increase the rates
paid to depositors sufficiently to prevent large withdrawals. Chart 11
illustrates how the yield on new mortgages, which reflects what homebuyers
are willing to pay, climbed in recent years above the average return on
association portfolios, a figure which, after allowing for costs, represents
what these institutions could afford to pay to attract deposits and still
show a positive net income. Because of these competitive pressures, rate
ceilings were extended in 1966 to cover savings and loan associations.




102

Chart 11

Mortgage Yields and Dividend Rate of Federal
Savings and Loan Associations
PERCENT PER ANNUM

10

8 MORTGAGE YIELDS:

y

FHA NEW HOME
MORTGAGES
\

6 _
-

zf— "

S & L PORTFOLIO
AVERAGEJ/
\

^

^gfltumnnun*****

+*—

„„„.».•••••••»**

4 -

S& L DIVIDEND R A T E i /

2 -

1

1

I

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

I

1

1

1

1

1

J / T O T A L INTEREST RECEIVED AS PERCENT OF AVERAGE MORTGAGE LOANS HELD.
- 2 / T O T A L DIVIDENDS PAID AS PERCENT OF AVERAGE SAVINGS CAPITAL,
SOURCES: FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION AND FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK BOARD.

During 1969, a consequence of rate ceilings has been a net reduction
in the inflow of savings to depository institutions as a group. Many of
their depositors have withdrawn funds in order to invest directly in market
securities, which have recently paid much higher interest rates. Rate ceilings have also discriminated against small savers who cannot so easily
switch to securities and must be content with lower rates.
Since mid-1969, deposits of savings and loan associations have practically
stopped growing, despite the lack of competition from commercial banks,
and the consequence has been a decline in mortgage financing. The savings
and loan associations must now depend heavily on loans from the Federal
Home Loan Bank System. Indeed, only a massive dose of support by




103

federally sponsored agencies has been able to prevent an even larger decline
in mortgage financing and housing starts.
Direct regulation of interest rate ceilings on deposits, together with portfolio restrictions, has contributed to these problems, because it has encouraged
some developments and delayed others in such a way that an important part
of the financial system is now ill-adapted to a world of changing interest
rates. These ceilings have not provided a satisfactory answer to the financial
needs of housing, while they have prevented the free and efficient movement of funds through financial markets. Mortgage financing and the role
of interest ceilings need reexamination. Savings and loan associations need
greater flexibility to adapt to market developments, and new sources of
funds for the mortgage market need to be devised. Given the consequences
of four decades of deposit-rate ceilings, they cannot be suddenly removed
without serious financial disruptions. Some basic reforms in financial regulations are, however, needed.
Presidential Commission on Financial Structure and Regulation
Our expanding and increasingly complex economy must have financial
institutions reflecting the vitality that comes from vigorous innovation and
competition. Financial services required by tomorrow's economy will differ
in as yet undefinable ways from those appropriate today. The demands on
our flow of national savings, as indicated in Chapter 3, will be heavy in
the years ahead, and our financial institutions and financial structure
must have the flexibility that will permit a sensitive response to changing
demands. Thus the time has come for a thorough examination of needed
changes in our financial institutions and our regulatory structure. This
study will be carried out by a commission to be appointed by the President
early this year.
GOVERNMENT REGULATION OF AGRICULTURE
Agriculture is another important sector of the economy where regulation has been used in an attempt to make market performance more
satisfactory.
Many of the problems of agriculture are the result of a steady increase
in agricultural output per farmer, which has made farmers a continually
dwindling minority, and of insufficient mobility, which has kept their
average income below that of most other occupational groups. As early
as 1870, the number of farmers had dropped below the number of persons
in other occupations. This trend has continued, and the proportion of the
population gainfully employed in agriculture at the present time is only
5 percent. This is the usual transition in an advancing economy. Fewer
and fewer people are required to produce the food and fiber for the rest
of the population; or, stated another way, as the real income of consumers
rises, an increasing proportion of income becomes available for other things
than the basic necessities of life. Currently, about 16 percent of consumer
income is spent on food.




104

Thus we get the familiar adjustment problem in the agricultural sector.
Stimulated by the yield from public and private programs to develop and
facilitate adoption of technological innovations, output grows more rapidly
than consumer demand. Since the demand for farm products is relatively
inelastic, increased supplies generally lead to markedly lower farm prices.
As a result, farm incomes are depressed, and farmworkers and proprietors
move to other occupations. But because there are impediments to this movement, per capita personal farm income does not catch up with the level in
other sectors.
At the depth of the depression, per capita personal income of farm people
was less than one-third that of the nonfarm population. In the middle fifties
it was about 46 percent. Currently, the per capita personal income of farm
people is about 70 percent of that of the rest of the population, but the narrowing of the income gap is due in large part to increasing Government
payments to farmers, steady gains by farmers in adding to their income from
nonfarm sources, and substantial declines in farm population (Chart 12).

Chart 12

Per Capita Personal Income of
Farm and Nonfarm Population
DOLLARS

4,000

3,000

INCOME OF NONFARM POPULATION

2,000
INCOME OF FARM POPULATION:

FROM FARM SOURCES
INCLUDING GOVERNMENT
PAYMENTS

FROM A L L SOURCES

1,000

FROM FARM SOURCES
EXCLUDING GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS

1955

57

59

61

63

65

67

69

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
ADVISERS.




105

Government Intervention in Agricultural Markets
The depression of the 1930's led the Federal Government to intervene
directly to support falling prices in agricultural markets with the objective of
stabilizing farm income. Since that time, commodity programs that were
originally adopted largely as emergency measures have varied only in emphasis from one decade to another. They have generally involved direct payments to farmers, production controls on output, price supports, and storage
and marketing activities. All these programs have entailed substantial budgetary costs. Direct payments alone were about $3.75 billion in 1969, accounting for about 23 percent of realized net farm income.
Because most commodity programs have been related to output, their
main benefits go to the larger commercial farms; for example, in 1968 the
top 6 percent of the farms (those with sales of $40,000 or more) received
nearly one-fifth of the Government payments and accounted for about onethird of the realized net farm income.
As another indirect form of regulation, Federal and State marketing
orders and agreements are in effect for many perishable commodities such as
milk, fresh fruit, and fresh vegetables. Milk marketing orders illustrate one
method of market control. For each milk marketing order, minimum prices
are established for the milk sold by dairy farmers. Using criteria provided
by statute, the Secretary of Agriculture sets these prices; prices may be different for the same milk depending on its final use. Drinking or Class I milk
carries a higher price than manufacturing or Glass II milk. The average or
"blend" price is paid to all farmers.
In an attempt to reinforce price discrimination between the two classes
of milk, the Food and Agriculture Act of 1965 provided for so-called Class I
Base Plans in Federal milk markets. These plans, which are instituted at the
request of dairy farmers, can be used to restrict production to the level of
Class I requirements in an individual market. Under this plan, each producer
receives a high price on his "base" (his share in the Class I market), rather
than a "blend" price on all production. Milk produced in excess of the established base is then priced at the lower Class II level, thus discouraging the
production of milk for manufacturing. When access to the Class I market
with its higher prices is sharply restricted, title to a base may be very advantageous. The value of these bases subsequently becomes capitalized into production costs for new producers, who purchase them. And consumers of
Class I milk must continue to pay substantially higher prices.
A Market-Oriented Agriculture Policy
Farm policies on field crops should give greater emphasis to market
forces and thus reduce direct governmental participation in the marketplace.
Specifically, three goals should be sought. First, prices should become more
flexible so that they approximate equilibrium between supply and demand
when averaged over a period of years. With this flexibility farmers should be




106

able to hold and even expand both domestic and foreign markets. Price supports should not interfere with normal commercial transactions, but should
serve only as a price floor to prevent excessive fluctuations and to provide a
basis for credit.
Second, production should not be controlled by limiting individual crop
acreages; rather it should be guided by market prices. Because the Government cannot immediately withdraw the influence on production that it has
exercised during its four decades of direct intervention, a gradual approach
is needed by which greater freedom will be gained through restrictions
on total land use only. Such a program would restore considerable freedom
of choice to participating farmers, permitting each one to produce as much of
any crop as he thinks will be most profitable up to the limits of his authorized
cropland. Eventually, we may be able to discard even this control measure.
Third, direct income payments, properly applied, offer a more efficient
way to support farm income than high price supports. The potential benefits
of high prices are largely dissipated because they make additional purchases
of inputs profitable. Direct income payments will be necessary for some time
to compensate for inequities and to smooth the adjustment process. Reasonable limits on payments to individuals, however, would help prevent the
undue enrichment of large operators at public expense.
REGULATION OF NONGOMPETITIVE MARKETS
In a few markets, competition does not flourish. In fact, in some instances
one large firm can supply an entire market at lower cost than several smaller
firms. When this is true, there tends to be a natural monopoly.
The American answer to these problems has generally been to substitute
regulation by Government agencies for reliance on the market. Nationalization and Government operation have only been experimented with in a
number of instances. This preference for regulation instead of nationalization has given rise to a variety of Federal and State agencies that set up
and enforce restrictions on many economic activities. There are agencies covering transportation, communications, electric power, pipelines, and petroleum, to cite most of the important ones.
The American experience with regulation, despite notable achievements,
has had its disappointing aspects. Regulation has too often resulted in protection of the status quo. Entry is often blocked, prices are kept from falling,
and the industry becomes inflexible and insensitive to new techniques
and opportunities for progress. Competition can sometimes develop outside
the jurisdiction of a regulatory agency and make inroads on the regulated
companies, threatening their profitability or even survival. In such cases,
pressure is usually exerted to extend the regulatory umbrella to guard against
this outside competition, so that the problems of regulation multiply and
detract from the original purpose of preventing overpricing and unwanted
side effects.




107

The fundamental problem lies in the complex and conflicting objectives
that sometimes characterize economic regulation itself. Agencies are supposed to protect the present and future interests of consumers, employees,
investors, and the Government. No one can begin to see the full consequences of current decisions on all these groups. As quasi-judicial bodies,
the regulatory commissions tend to give much weight to precedent. As a
result, change of any kind becomes hard to justify and even harder to allow
when some affected group can claim immediate harm, whereas the potential beneficiaries are widely diffused and usually not represented. Yet
innovation and adaptation are the dynamics of economic progress.
There is no clear safeguard against these dangers, but more reliance on
economic incentives and market mechanisms in regulated industries would
be a step forward. The record in transportation and communications, and
other examples in this chapter, point to that lesson. Industries have been
more progressive when the agencies have endeavored to confine regulation
to a necessary minimum and have otherwise fostered competition. When
regulation has stifled competition, performance has deteriorated. The
clearest lesson of all, however, is that regulation should be narrowed or
halted when it has outlived its original purpose.
Transportation
The Interstate Commerce Commission's efforts to eliminate price cutting
among truckers, railroads, and bargelines is a classic example of the attempts to curb competition through regulation. The original justification
for regulation—that railroads were monopolistic—has lost much of its validity since there is now considerable competition from other modes of
transportation, although the shippers of some bulk commodities are still
heavily dependent on rail transportation. Yet the ICC must continue to
operate under the mandate of past transportation acts. Greater reliance on
the market would be beneficial to transportation, but, in view of long
established practices, this would have to be approached gradually. Except
for predatory pricing to drive competitors from a market, which is prohibited under antitrust law, many transportation rates could safely be allowed
to find their own level through competition. A policy of permitting and
encouraging competition of all kinds would, if general economic experience
is any guide, make the industry more efficient as well as benefit the public.
ICC regulations also have the effect of restricting entry into markets,
particularly in the trucking industry, where economies of scale are limited
and costs of entry low. Lack of free entry protects the profits of existing
carriers, but it hardly benefits the public. Here the regulatory process is
arrayed against new entrants. Those who could suffer from competition
make themselves known and actively plead their cause. Those who might
enter if restrictions were relaxed are less clearly identifiable, and they
have less interest in advocating the case for free entry.




108

The origin of regulation was somewhat different in the air transportation
industry. The Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) was given a mandate to
foster competition consistent with orderly growth and the convenience and
needs of the public. Public safety was to be an important dimension of convenience. As a result, the air transportation industry blends competition
with a high degree of safety and convenience. Regulation has inevitably
reduced price competition, however, and has tended to reduce new entry
in air transportation. With the exception of two carriers serving Alaska,
no new trunkline carriers have been certified since the CAB was established.
The CAB has, however, encouraged limited competition by certifying competing carriers on some routes, and this limited competition has resulted
in increased service to the public.
Communications
Common-carrier communications service, such as the telephone service,
is a natural monopoly. In many parts of the world, the practice has been to
nationalize this industry. Here we have chosen to provide detailed regulation
of privately owned service. The results have been generally satisfactory, in
terms of convenience to customers. Regulation should be carried out in
such a manner that it does not prevent or limit competition in sectors
that are not natural monopolies. Recently, after a series of Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and court decisions, new carriers of private
wire and microwave systems have been permitted, with beneficial effects on
rates and services.
Long-distance communications may be entering a new and more competitive era with the development of satellite communications systems.
Economies of scale in the operation of satellites do not appear to be sufficient
to bar competitive operations. Hence the Administration has recommended
to the FCC that multiple domestic satellite systems be authorized and that
restrictions on entry be applied only where they are necessary to prevent
undue interference. It is the Administration's hope that increased competition will eventually make it possible to let market forces assume more of the
role of detailed regulation.
Radio Spectrum
Property rights in radio frequencies do not exist, nor are markets allowed
to determine the allocation of frequencies. The FCC currently allocates spectrum among the competing users and thus creates quasi-rights. Unfortunately, it is difficult for any regulatory body to determine the most beneficial uses of a scarce resource. While the FCC attempts to make sound allocative judgments, it is faced with continual requests for spectrum for many
different uses. Without a market test it has no way of being sure that its allocative decisions are appropriate.
372-111 o—70



8

109

The absence of property rights to the radio frequencies also helps create
congestion in the spectrum. No single user feels impelled to develop methods
that will require less spectrum. Nor does he have an incentive to share his
spectrum with others who may make more efficient use of the frequency.
Here too the market should probably have a stronger influence on the
allocative process. As an illustration, it might be possible to experiment with
a mechanism reflecting the economic value of the entire spectrum. Such an
experiment might involve a system of fees varying with the estimated value
of particular frequencies and subject to repeated adjustments.
GOVERNMENT PARTICIPATION IN THE MARKET
The Government participates in the market primarily as a buyer of goods
and services. It also participates as a seller or provider of goods and services.
Some of these are collective goods, such as national defense, that can only be
provided by the Government. Others, such as education, can and are furnished by the private sector as well. A full treatment of the Government's
participation in the marketplace is beyond the scope of this Report, but certain aspects are worth emphasizing.
When the Government is the only supplier, the public is not always adequately serviced. The Government makes many items available free or below
cost, so that it becomes a monopoly supplier. Sometimes the Government
has established a legal monopoly and prohibited competition. Unless there
is a compelling reason to justify a Government monopoly, it should not be
established; rather competition should be encouraged wherever possible.
In some instances goods or services are supplied below cost, when the
Government could accomplish the same aim, yet encourage competition, by
supplying buyers with funds earmarked for the purchase of the desired item
in the market. The food stamp program is an example of this approach.
In general the recipients will derive less benefit from such earmarked funds
than from unrestricted grants in the same amount. The Administration's
Family Assistance Program therefore envisages replacing food stamps by
cash grants as rapidly as possible.
In the Government's role as a supplier of goods and services its charges
should clearly reflect the incremental costs of its operations, including
capital charges except where subsidization is a conscious objective. When
charges are brio™ such costs, a wasteful use of resources may result, since
consumers are encouraged to use more of the product or service than they
would if charges reflected costs more accurately. Subsidization is, of course,
appropriate wherever such greater use is the explicit objective (and in this
case there should be an explicit accounting for the subsidy).
Costs of Government enterprises are especially difficult to measure. In
principle, the appropriate measure of cost to the Government is what the
resources it consumes could have earned in the private sector. As the previous chapter pointed out, when any resources are used by the Government,




no

it lessens by that much the resources available to the private sector. One
alternative to Government use of resources would be to make more funds
available for private investment. As a first approximation, the appropriate
cost of a Government investment would be the expected earnings—pretax—
on a similar private investment, and not the cost to the Government of borrowing funds.
If a Government enterprise is operated in a market framework, the discipline of the marketplace is likely to improve the results. When an enterprise faces active competition, it cannot afford to offer poor service. If it
must raise capital in the private sector, it will naturally take account of the
full cost to the economy of such investment. And when it operates without
Government aid, it must cover its costs.
Thus, a practical way to improve the workings of Government enterprises, unless subsidizing is a major objective, is to move the operation as
close to the private sector as possible. This Administration has initiated
two important moves in this direction. It has recommended the establishment of a Government-owned postal corporation which would ultimately
have to cover nearly all its costs. It has also recommended that the Atomic
Energy Commission's uranium enriching plants be sold to private industry
at an appropriate time and that in the interim the operation of the plants
resemble private operation as nearly as is practical.
POSTAL SERVICE
The Post Office is essentially a commercial operation run as a Government agency, but modern management practices are difficult to introduce.
Personnel costs, which account for about 80 percent of Post Office costs,
are fixed by Congress. Net fixed assets per postal employee were only
$1,145 in 1967, while they were $2,836 per employee in merchandising,
$7,170 in manufacturing, and $25,053 in transportation. Partly as a consequence of these conditions postal productivity has been increasing since
1956 at a rate of about 0.2 percent per year compared with 3.4 percent
for the private sector of the economy.
According to the Kappel Commission's review of the Post Office, working
conditions in many post offices leave much to be desired. More than 60 percent of the regular postal employees finish their careers at the same level at
which they started. Patronage and residence requirements for postmasters'
appointments have held down career opportunities. Efforts to improve
productivity are often frustrated. The system has been "run by the book,"
a 2,000-page Postal Manual intended to cover all contingencies.
Most postal rates are currently set by Congress. Under the current accounting system, it is impossible to ascertain the incremental cost of any service.
For this reason little basis exists for confirming or denying the popular belief
that first-class mail more than pays for itself while other mail is delivered
at a loss.




in

The Kappel Commission pointed to the political nature of Post Office
appointments as one of the most serious problems in the postal system.
The President has asked that Congress no longer require Senate confirmation of appointments to postmasterships at first-, second-, and third-class
offices. He has also requested legislation to bar political tests in the selection,
appointment, and promotion of Department employees. Departing from a
former practice, the President does not seek local political endorsement of
prospective postmasters. All these steps are designed to strengthen the merit
system and permit candidates to be chosen for their competence rather than
their political activity.
An even more fundamental departure is the Administration's proposal for
reform of the postal service through the creation of a Government-owned,
self-supporting corporation to operate the postal system under a directive
that costs must be covered with revenues after a transitional period, except
for public service costs for which appropriations would be made. The corporation would have the power to borrow fimds for capital investment, to
negotiate wage rates with postal unions, and, subject to veto by Congress,
to set postal rates. The Government-owned postal corporation would be
allowed great flexibility in operating the postal system, especially in its
personnel and capital expenditure programs.
The postal reform proposal would obligate the board of directors of the
postal corporation to report to Congress within 2 years concerning modernization of the postal monopoly laws, which effectively prohibit a private
firm from delivering first-class mail. A careful review of these laws might show
that additional competition could prove beneficial to the using public.
URANIUM ENRICHMENT FACILITIES
In the current state of technology the most efficient method of providing
nuclear power is the use of light water reactors which operate on enriched
uranium. Three plants owned by the Atomic Energy Commission and
operated under contract by private enterprise supply this uranium. Constructed at a cost of $2.4 billion, these plants are located in Oak Ridge,
Tenn., Paducah, Ky., and Portsmouth, Ohio.
Originally the plants were built for the nuclear weapons program. Military
needs for enriched uranium are expected to be small in future years, much
below the capacity of these plants, but the growth of the nuclear power
industry is expected to lead to capacity operations by the late 19705s.
In the chain of operations involving this form of energy—from mining
uranium to generating nuclear power—the enriching plants are the last link
to remain exclusively in Government hands. Since demand for enriched
uranium is likely to come almost entirely from the commercial sector, the
President has indicated that these plants should also be sold to private
industry when conditions for disposal are advantageous.




112

Conditions for such sale are not advantageous at present. The plants are
currently being operated at only about 40 percent of their existing capacity.
Moreover, because of existing long-term contracts for power supplies, the
plants will produce considerably more enriched uranium than can be sold
at present, though it may be needed to meet future demands.
So long as the Government keeps the plants, it should encourage their
efficient use in order to strengthen competition in the power field. The
President has asked the AEC to establish a Directorate to run these plants
in a manner that approaches more closely commercial enterprises, implying1
that they should earn commercial rates of return on the investment. The
Directorate will use commercial accounting procedures and prepare annual
financial statements equivalent to those of private corporations.
An important feature of this change is that nuclear generating plants
will not enjoy a subsidy giving them an advantage in their competition with
fossil fuels as sources of electric power. The proposed Directorate's operations, modeled after commercial operations, should provide a record of
earnings that will facilitate subsequent sale to private industry and help
to assure that the Government receives a fair price for the plants when they
are sold.
THE GOVERNMENT AND HOUSING
All levels of government have been involved to an exceptionally high
degree in the housing industry—in its financing, its technology, its labor
supply and labor relations, and even in its supply of some basic materials.
In addition, housing is the only major private industry for whose output
a fairly specific goal has been stated by legislation. The Housing Act of 1949
declared a goal of "a decent home . . . for every American family," and the
Act of 1968 said that this goal could be met by constructing or rehabilitating
26 million houses in the next decade, of which 6 million would be for lowand moderate-income families.
The enactment of this goal was not based on a calculation of the costs of
achieving it and a decision to pay those costs whatever they might be. Until
the costs and possible methods of achieving this goal are assessed more
accurately it cannot be regarded as a firm basis for planning. Moreover, any
goal set now would certainly have to be regarded as open to review and
revision as time passes. Nevertheless, the kind of concern expressed by the
26 million housing goal, together with the prospect that rising family formation will greatly increase the demand for houses in the next decade, calls for
a reexamination of the Federal role with respect to housing.
A distinction should be made between policy about housing for lowincome people and housing for the rest of the population. An intention to
subsidize housing for low-income people is clear. This may be explained on
the same grounds as other contributions from the more affluent to the poor,
although there are questions about whether in the long run subsidizing
housing is an efficient way to make this transfer.




"3

Federal policy toward the nonsubsidized part of housing is probably best
understood as an effort to improve the operation of private markets. This
is clearest with respect to finance. The cost of capital to finance housing has
been affected by the real or apparent riskiness and illiquidity of mortgage
instruments. Policies to reduce these costs, without subsidies from the
Federal Government, include FHA insurance, the provision of insurance
and a reserve lending source for savings and loan associations, and the
establishment of the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA)
to create a secondary market for mortgages. Further action along this line
may be useful, especially to reduce the great instability of the residential
construction industry, which in turn would contribute much to increasing
productivity in the industry.
It is probably inevitable that housing construction should be particularly
sensitive to variations in interest rates, given the heavy weight of interest
charges in housing costs and the fact that much of the demand for housing
can be postponed, at least for a time. However, this sensitivity has been
greatly increased by a number of institutional arrangements of which interest
rate ceilings have been among the most important. In the past, legal ceilings
on the interest rates payable on FHA and VA mortgages have caused the
supply of funds available through those programs to dry up whenever
market interest rates rose much above the ceilings. The Secretary of Housing and Urban Development is authorized to vary the ceiling rate, and this
flexibility can somewhat ease that particular problem. Usury ceilings in
some States prevent the flow of funds into mortgages when market rates are
high. In 1969, the supply of mortgage money in States with low usury
ceilings appeared to be more limited than in other States. Stability in construction would be improved if these usury ceilings were eliminated. The
fact is that these ceilings, instead of protecting people from having to pay
exorbitant rates, often prevent their obtaining mortgage credit at all.
The housing industry is also less able to compete for funds when interest
rates are rising because by custom it has depended heavily on specialized
financial intermediaries, as noted elsewhere. The possibility of raising
funds in the face of high interest rates might be improved if housing had
recourse to more varied sources. Several steps have recently been taken to
remedy this lack. The Federal National Mortgage Association and the
Federal Home Loan Bank Board (FHLBB) have greatly expanded
their borrowing on their own securities in the open capital market in order
to supply funds to mortgage markets directly or through savings and loan
associations. In 1969, regulations were promulgated for the issue of mortgage-backed securities of various kinds, guaranteed by the Government
National Mortgage Association (GNMA). This action was intended to
authorize a mortgage investment instrument that would be marketable and
attractive to a wide range of investors not now interested in mortgages directly. Establishment of a facility providing a secondary market for conven-




114

tional mortgages somewhat along the lines that FNMA now provides for
FHA-VA mortgages is currently being considered.
The housing industry is unable to raise sufficient funds during a period of
rising interest rates and inflation because of the nearly universal use of a longterm credit instrument with a fixed interest rate and amortization schedule.
When future interest rates and rates of inflation are uncertain, both lenders
and borrowers may be better satisfied with an instrument that provides some
hedge against these uncertainties. One possibility would be a mortgage in
which the interest rate varied with some prevailing market rate, adjustment
to be made by lengthening or shortening the repayment schedule. Lending
institutions may need greater flexibility to work out terms of mortgages that
are accepable both to them and to their customers.
The Government's efforts to improve the flow of finance into housing
has only recently begun to be matched by efforts to increase the supply and
improve the utilization of real resources—notably labor. But the imperfections on this side of the industry have probably been as great as on the
financial side. Entry into the construction workforce has been limited by
prevailing practices. The large turnover of firms, the seasonality of the
work, and the traditionally long apprenticeships contribute to the difficulty
in securing an adequate supply of skilled workers. The fragmented structure
of the industry and the instability of its operations have impeded the research
and development that might lead to greater efficiency and lower cost.
In order to improve the utilization of construction manpower, the President issued an Executive Order on September 22, 1969, establishing a
Construction Industry Collective Bargaining Commission. The Commission
was established to assist in the settlement of labor disputes through voluntary
procedures and to seek solutions to a wide range of manpower problems, including training and development of construction manpower, instability and
seasonality of employment, and productivity and mobility of the construction labor force.
Significant expansion of training programs will be necessary to meet the
large projected demand for skilled construction workers. Expansion of
vocational education programs emphasizing construction skills can play an
important supplementary role in increasing the supply of craftsmen with
skills appropriate for entering construction work or for further training to
attain full journeyman status. Federal officials will work with State and
local authorities to encourage programs in construction skill training, and
some Federal funds will be used to obtain direct expansion of these programs. Cooperative programs between the schools, unions, and contractors,
in which credit toward apprenticeship requirements is granted for vocational
education programs, is also a promising new direction which HEW is
currently emphasizing.
The Administration has also made a major effort to expand participation of minority workers in training and employment in construction work,
especially on Federal and federally assisted construction projects. The




"5

widespread shortage of skilled construction workers in the industry is
indicated by the ability of unions to obtain very large wage settlements.
To open a greater flow of minority workers into the industry in order to
help relieve these skill shortages is a major objective of the Philadelphia
Plan. The Plan requires contractors bidding on Federal construction projects to make good faith efforts through affirmative action to meet established hiring goals for minority employment. The Department of Housing
and Urban Development has also been working to develop local coalitions
that will help increase opportunities for members of minority groups to
join craft unions and apprenticeship and other training programs.
Through its "Operation Breakthrough" program, the Department of
Housing and Urban Development has solicited proposals for experimental
projects to demonstrate the use of new production techniques, including
improved building management and financial arrangements, as a basis for
significant improvements in productivity and efficiency. Simultaneously, the
Department has solicited prototype site proposals from State and local
governments willing to cooperate in eliminating building code and zoning
constraints and in combining markets for volume production. The goal
is to develop techniques to meet opportunities for mass marketing through
the use of volume production methods and the capital resources of large
companies. The Department of Housing and Urban Development has
received 236 proposals for the use of new systems in residential construction
projects. About 20 of these will be underwritten, in part, by the Department.
An essential part of the "Breakthrough" program is to change zoning
and building regulations that presently impede building of low- and
moderate-cost residential units in and around many major cities. While
some States are now enacting statutes capable of overruling local ordinances,
the remaining political and social obstacles are great. There is also need
for a breakthrough to reduce the administrative delays and unnecessary redtape that are characteristic of many Federal housing programs and of many
local housing authorities.
The Department has also taken the lead in the negotiation of a pilot
labor-management agreement which will reduce obstacles hampering the
introduction of new techniques. This nationwide agreement permits the
factory production of modular homes, provides for locally negotiated wages
and fringe benefits uniform for three building trades, allows for the
crossing of craft jurisdictions, and incorporates effective dispute settlement
machinery. In addition, provision is also made for training and employment opportunities for minority group members. It is felt by many observers
that the agreement will provide a viable model to others similarly engaged
in construction of housing units in an industrial context.
Improving the financing arrangements for housing, removing obstacles
to the supply of labor, increasing investment in the training of construction
labor where the payoffs justify the costs, and improving technology
should all raise the rate of housing construction in the years ahead. Whether




116

they will suffice to achieve a predetermined goal for the number of houses
to be built in the decade remains to be seen. Much will depend upon concurrent developments in the economy, including the strength of business
demands for capital, the degree to which the Federal Government is
adding to or subtracting from the supply of capital by its surplus or
deficit, and the success of the home building industry itself in offering
innovative products at a reasonable cost.




117

CHAPTER 5

Freedom and Stability in the World Economy

I

NTERNATIONAL SPECIALIZATION AND EXCHANGE have
made an important contribution to rising standards of living in the United
States and abroad. By offering its own products in payment, a nation can
acquire imports with less sacrifice of domestic resources than would be
required to produce the same goods at home. Imports are the fruits of
international trade, and exports are what must be given up to obtain them.
The ability of a country to import depends primarily on how much of its
production it can sell abroad. And this depends in turn on its domestic production costs, compared to those abroad, its access to foreign markets, and
the exchange rates which translate the exporters' selling prices into the importers' currencies.
Of these determinants, domestic production costs are the result in part of
general monetary and fiscal policy, discussed in Chapter 1, and in part of
market performance, discussed in Chapter 4. Access to foreign markets is
one of the subjects taken up in the first part of the present chapter, and
exchange rates are considered in the last part. This chapter also deals with
international capital movements and the Euro-dollar market, and with
other recent developments in international finance.
THE EXPANSION OF TRADE
The case for free markets in international trade is much the same as it is
in the domestic economy. Artificial barriers to trade, such as tariff's and
quotas, usually act to reduce or eliminate exchange that would have benefited the trading parties. Similarly, by insulating domestic producers from
foreign competition, trade restrictions reduce the incentives to increase innovation, efficiency, and specialization—dynamic forces that have made a
major contribution to the economic growth of industrial nations. Restrictions
on trade also limit the extent to which imports can compete with domestic
products, and thus weaken an important restraint on domestic price increases.
In a dynamic world economy, changing conditions require continuous
adjustments. These may inflict hardship on some and evoke resistance. But
American industry is used to adapting to changing competitive pressures
from both at home and abroad, and American labor has always been mobile,
both among regions and among industries. Most of the necessary adjustments can be taken in stride, but some may prove more difficult. By




118

providing temporary adjustment assistance, the Government can help those
who must adapt to changing patterns of world trade, and improve the
capability of our market economy to take full advantage of the benefits of
international trade and investment.
NONTARIFF BARRIERS
The rapid growth of international trade in the past decade attests to the
progress made in reducing trade barriers. In 1969 total world trade approached a quarter of a trillion dollars, an increase of about 14 percent over
that for 1968. During the decade of the 1960's the international trade of
industrial nations increased at an average rate of almost 10 percent per year.
As incomes rise and wants become more diverse, it is to be expected that
opportunities for trade among these nations will grow rapidly, and this
clearly has been happening. Progress towards freer trade, however, has been
uneven. A serious problem is that the lowering of tariff walls has not been
accompanied by similar progress in the lowering of nontariff barriers, which
have increased in relative importance—and in some cases absolutely—as
tariffs have declined. Recognizing the importance of attacking nontariff
barriers in a systematic and coordinated manner, the countries adhering to
the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) assigned high
priority to this problem in the work program planned to follow the Kennedy
Round. On industrial products, an analysis of existing nontariff barriers was
completed during 1969, and it was agreed to begin early in 1970 to formulate
means of dealing with various types of these restrictions. A similar project
has been initiated in relation to agricultural trade.
Nontariff barriers range from formal and explicit quotas to unpublicized
administrative procedures that have the effect of impeding or excluding
imports. One clear-cut example is quota restrictions that are imposed during periods of an unfavorable balance of payments, but often continue after
the difficulties have disappeared. (The GATT allows the use of quantitative
restrictions to correct deficits in the balance of payments under certain circumstances, provided that such restrictions are progressively relaxed as the
balance of payments improves.)
More commonly, however, nontariff import barriers have been imposed
for a variety of other reasons. In some cases their explicit purpose is to protect domestic industry. In other cases, legitimate domestic measures may have
a protective side effect; health and sanitary regulations primarily designed
to protect the consumer, for example, may also make it more difficult for
foreign competitors to gain access to the domestic market.
Government procurement policies are frequently designed to provide
protection for domestic industries. Domestic procurement may be explicitly
required, or a price preference may be allowed on bids by domestic concerns.
In a number of countries the responsible administrative agencies are given
wide latitude in accepting or rejecting bids by foreign producers. As a result,
American corporations may run into a combination of high barriers and
frustrating uncertainties about how the barriers are administered.




On the U.S. side, preferences are also granted to domestic suppliers but
these are generally explicit and easily understood. Thus regulations issued
under the Buy American Act grant a 6-percent preference, plus another
6 percent if the materials are produced by a small business or in an area
with substantial labor surplus. A 50-percent preference in overseas procurement is applied for balance-of-payments reasons by the Department of
Defense and most other Government agencies. The case for the 50-percent
preference involves weighing balance-of-payments gains against budgetary
costs.
Restrictions abroad on trade in agricultural products are arousing particular concern in the United States because we have a comparative advantage in many of these products. The farm programs of most developed
countries include special measures to support the prices farmers receive
and to give them protection beyond that provided by customs duties. Measures taken pursuant to the Common Agricultural Policy of the European
Economic Community have an especially distorting effect on world agricultural trade because they insulate domestic producers from foreign competition in order to keep internal farm prices far above world prices. The
surpluses in some commodities resulting from these high prices are sold
abroad with the aid of large export subsidies. While the United States also
supports the prices of most basic crops, these prices (with a few exceptions)
do not greatly exceed the world market level. We also maintain import
quotas, notably on sugar and dairy products, and have arranged for exporting countries to limit exports of beef to the United States.
THE TRADE BILL OF 1969
The trade bill submitted by the President to Congress in November continues the movement toward freer world trade, and it also explicitly recognizes the importance of insuring that U.S. producers have fair access to
foreign markets. Specifically, the bill would restore Presidential power to
make limited tariff reductions. It envisions the elimination of the American
selling price (ASP) system (in which certain import duties are based on the
domestic selling price of competing American products rather than on the
normal basis of actual export price). It would broaden the present authority
to act against countries that treat U.S. products unfairly and would provide
new authority to act against those countries that grant export subsidies which
result in unfair competition against U.S. exports in third markets. At the
same time, it would significantly improve the procedure by which business
and workers injured by imports can receive Government assistance.
The tariff authority requested in the bill would make it possible for the
President to approve occasional minor adjustments in tariffs that may be required—to compensate foreign countries, for example, if the United States
applies an escape clause, or if a statutory change is made in tariff classification. It is not designed to be used for major tariff negotiations.
The American selling price system of customs valuation which applies
to a few American products (primarily benzenoid chemicals) has taken




120

on symbolic importance for our trading partners. In conjunction with
the Kennedy Round of tariff reductions, an agreement was reached providing that if the United States removed ASP, others would make specified
further reductions in foreign tariffs on chemicals as well as reductions in
several important nontariff barriers, such as European road taxes which discriminate against larger automobiles. Legislation to eliminate ASP would
achieve these already negotiated trade benefits, and would also be an important positive step toward multilateral reduction of nontariff barriers, a liberalization which would benefit the United States both as an exporter and
as an importer.
Although the relaxation of tariffs and other barriers in international trade
promises clear benefits to the national economy as a whole, it must be recognized that the effects on some industries and individuals may be adverse, at
least in the short run. Because the gains from trade are widely distributed
to the consuming public, the costs of major resulting adjustments should be
borne in part by the economy as a whole, not just by those who must suffer
the direct effect of liberalization. For the economy as a whole, increased imports need not create unemployment. This was demonstrated, for instance,
during the inflationary expansion of 1968, when unemployment fell from
3.8 to 3.6 percent, in spite of the record increase of 23 percent in imports.
Nevertheless, specific imports may cause disruption in directly competing industries. The Trade Expansion Act of 1962 provided for assistance to help
those injured by tariff reductions adjust to the change, but in practice
the criteria for assistance have been excessively stringent. The new bill would
relax these criteria and make aid more readily available to those who
require it.
In his trade message of November 18, the President stated that provisions
concerning both the escape clause and adjustment assistance in the 1962 act
were too tightly drawn and too technical to insure prompt and effective relief
for those actually injured by imports. The President therefore recommended
that the escape clause be made more flexible by providing a simple and clear
statement of what should constitute injury under the law: Relief should be
available whenever increased imports are the primary cause of actual or
potential serious injury.
Under the present law, the injury must be related to a prior tariff reduction. In many cases, the tariff rates originally set in the Tariff Act of 1930
have been reduced in a series of trade agreements from 1934 to 1967, and
it has become increasingly difficult to determine whether past tariff reductions are the cause of increased imports. Since the same problem arises in
investigations of adjustment assistance, the President recommended a similar
change in the criteria applicable to petitions for adjustment assistance filed
by firms or groups of workers. The President observed that improving the
provisions for relief from import injury should lessen the pressure for legislation to restrict imports and should thus aid in the continuing U.S. attack




121

on trade restrictions of other countries, which currently impede the access
of U.S. exports to foreign markets.
THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY
Greater access to markets is especially important to the developing countries. Although aid from abroad is vital to most of their plans for achieving
greater prosperity, the most important condition for success is their ability to
make better use of their own resources, both internally and externally. An
effective strategy must be designed to further their participation in foreign
trade and attract private investment from abroad.
The Flow of Resources
For more than two decades the United States has provided large amounts
of financial aid to the less developed countries (LDC's). In recent years
other industrialized countries have also begun to provide substantial
amounts. In 1968, industrial countries contributed $6.4 billion in official
development assistance (which excludes private investment and loans on
commercial terms). Although the flow of resources from the United States
rose steadily up to the mid-1960's, it has leveled off in recent years. Private
investment, on the other hand, has grown rapidly during the last 5 years. In
1968, U.S. private investment in less developed countries increased to $2 billion, more than double the 1963 rate. Total private investment in the LDC's
by developed countries as a whole rose to $5.9 billion in 1968, also more than
doubling the 1963 figure. To encourage a continuation of this trend the President signed the Foreign Assistance Act of 1969 providing for the establishment of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, which would sell insurance and guarantees to U.S. private investors. The President has also
endorsed the multilateral institutions—the World Bank and its affiliates and
the regional banks—as channels through which development assistance can
be provided on an equitable basis.
The Efficiency of Aid
Greater reliance on the market mechanism can contribute significantly to
economic growth in the LDC's as well as in developed countries. It is especially appropriate that the United States, whose strong economy owes so
much to the freedom of our market system, set an example by showing a
willingness to let market forces operate. When this Administration came to
office, foreign aid was subject to "additionally" and "tying" conditions which
hampered its effectiveness. Tying requires that aid funds be used only to purchase U.S. goods and services; additionality further requires that aid funds
not otherwise restricted be spent on U.S. products or services that do not
substitute for commercial exports from the United States.
In June 1969 the Administration acted to end additionality requirements for aid. Later, the tying requirement in aid to Latin American nations
was relaxed; they may now spend aid funds anywhere in Latin America as
well as in the United States. The speed with which the United States can




122

make further improvements in the efficiency of its aid is governed to a major
extent by its balance of payments and by the aid policies of other countries.
Tariff Preferences
In the long run, the LDC's must look to a continued and vigorous expansion of export earnings as an important part of their economic progress. Aid
can help them overcome their initial handicaps, but by itself it cannot constitute a lasting solution. Greater internal efforts are also required.
From 1960 to 1967, export earnings of the developed nations grew at a
rate of 8.4 percent per year. Although rates for different countries differ
widely, export earnings of LDC's as a whole rose at the rate of only 6.1 percent. At present, primary products account for almost 80 percent of the
exports of LDC's and the rate at which exports of these products are growing is substantially below the rate of growth of world trade generally. Because
of the limited potential for future expansion of trade in traditional exports,
the ability of the LDC's to develop new exports, especially of manufactured
products, will be increasingly important. This development is inhibited by
tariffs and quotas imposed by developed countries, and by internal economic
difficulties within the LDC's.
To assist in meeting the goals of the LDC's the 1968 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) recommended that the
more prosperous nations offer preferential tariff rates on the exports of the
LDC's. The Organization for Economic Cooperation x and Development
(OECD) has appointed a working group, consisting of representatives of the
OECD members plus Australia and New Zealand, to formulate a plan for
a system of generalized tariff preferences. The United States has submitted
a proposal to this body. Some of the key provisions are:
(1) All duties on manufactured and semimanufactured products imported from less developed countries, except textiles, footwear, and petroleum
and petroleum products, would be eliminated. A selected list of agricultural
and fishery products that would also benefit from the preferences is provided.
(2) There would be no quantitative limits on the additional imports
eligible for preferential treatment. Injury to domestic producers would be
handled by standard escape clauses and adjustment assistance.
(3) The preferences would be temporary, scheduled to last no more than
10 years, and should not obstruct further general tariff reductions.
(4) All major developed countries would adopt a common plan.
(5) The United States would not grant preferences to any country
that received an exclusive trade preference from any developed country for
a product covered by the plan, nor would we grant preferences to LDC's
that gave exclusive trade preferences to any developed country (reverse
preferences).
Other participants in the OECD working group have also submitted
proposals, some of which vary in important respects from the U.S. approach.
The European Community's proposal, for example, calls for limits on the
quantities of imports granted preferential treatment.




123

In November 1969, the OECD transmitted to the UNCTAD a report
setting forth the positions taken by the prospective preference-granting countries. The United States will be engaged during the coming months in discussions in OECD and UNCTAD with the other developed countries and
with the potential LDC beneficiaries with a view to reaching agreement on
a mutually satisfactory arrangement.
Tariff preferences for the LDC's will mark a significant departure from
the most-favored-nation principle on which the General Agreement on
Tariffs and Trade has been built. This principle, which requires nondiscriminatory treatment of all imports regardless of origin, lies at the heart of
free international trade, and departures should be avoided except for compelling reasons.
When one country gives another preferential access to its markets, an
increase in trade between the two countries will normally result. This may
represent new international trade, or it may come from substituting the
exports of one country for those of others. In the first case, there will
normally be an increase in efficiency. In the second case, where trade is
diverted from the lower cost third countries, the result will generally be lower
economic efficiency. Countries negotiating trade matters find it least painful to give one another the markets that were previously the province of
third parties. The general GATT proscription of preferential arrangements
was aimed to counteract the natural bias toward trade diversion when
countries exchange selective preferences.
The departure from the most-favored-nation principle is justified by two
considerations. The development of manufacturing industries is essential to
the progress of the LDC's, and these industries will be stimulated by preferences. Second, a liberal system of general preferences replacing specialized
regional preferences will create additional world trade and may reduce
existing distortions in trade patterns.
THE U.S. TRADE BALANCE
The U.S. economy and developments in our own external payments have
a profound influence on the stability and growth of the world trading and
financial system. Our exports now account for 17 percent of total world
trade, and the dollar has achieved high standing as an international currency. Growing economies abroad have provided expanding markets for
our output. In turn the level of our material welfare has been raised by an
increasingly diverse array of products from abroad.
During the 1960's, U.S. exports grew rapidly, at an average annual rate
of over 7 percent. Imports grew even more rapidly, however, with the result
that the trade surplus in merchandise shrank from a peak of $6.8 billion in
1964 to less than $1 billion during 1968.
The growth of U.S. exports has been fostered by high technology, exemplified in such manufactured items as computers, jet aircraft, and control




124

instruments. Even the rapidly growing international demand for these products, however, has not been sufficient to prevent a decline in the U.S. share
of total world exports. One reason is that growth in the traditional U.S.
export markets has been below the average. And even within these markets,
U.S. competitive shares of manufactured exports have declined.
During recent years export prices of some of our major competitors—
such as Germany, Italy, and Japan—have performed better than those
of the United States. It is not surprising, therefore, that from 1961 through
1968 U.S. bilateral trade balances with these three countries declined by more
than $3.8 billion. In the same interval, the overall trade balances of these
three countries improved by roughly $7.6 billion.
The U.S. trade balance with Canada has also shown a large decline in
recent years, but the reason appears to lie in special conditions affecting
U.S.-Canadian trade. Canada's trade balance with other countries deteriorated slightly during the 1960's.
There have been other important changes in the composition of U.S.
trade during the decade. From 1960 through 1966, U.S. agricultural exports increased rapidly, but they have been at a standstill since 1967. The
sharp rise in U.S. imports of finished manufactured goods other than foods,
from $5.3 billion in 1960 to almost $17 billion in 1968, was also significant.
The share of these products in total U.S. imports increased from 35 to over
50 percent in the period from 1960 through 1968. The increase was particularly strong in imports of consumer goods, especially luxury products.
A part of the recent surge in U.S. imports can be attributed to inflation
in the domestic economy. During the years of relatively stable prices between 1955 and 1965, the value of merchandise imports as a percentage of
GNP varied little, hovering around 3 percent, but by 1968 it had increased
to almost 4 percent. In 1969 it edged slightly higher but remained just
under 4 percent.
Because of the prolonged dock strike in the first quarter of 1969, it is
difficult to interpret the currently available trade figures for last year. There
are signs of improvement in the merchandise trade balance after midyear, and the deterioration of the trade balance typical of the past several
years appears at least to have been arrested. As inflation is slowed in the
United States, the trade balance should improve. It is not likely, however,
that regaining internal stability will be enough by itself to restore promptly
the large surplus in the trade balance of the early and middle 1960's. For one
thing, the excessive domestic demand emerging toward the end of 1965 has
become incorporated into higher costs and prices, and these tend to be inflexible downwards. Thus, the inflation of recent years will continue to have
an adverse effect on our competitive position in the world economy. At the
same time our technological superiority in many fields has been narrowed by
the notable advances of countries like Japan and Germany.

372-111 O—70




9

125

INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOBILITY AND THE BALANCE OF
PAYMENTS
While the gradual narrowing of our trade balance has dominated the
general trend of the U.S. balance of payments, short-term fluctuations have
become increasingly dominated by capital movements. Capital flows are
treated differently in the two most widely publicized measures of the balance
of payments: the official settlements balance and the liquidity balance.
Because short-term capital movements have been large, these two measures
have recently yielded very different results. During the first half of 1969, the
United States registered a record surplus measured on the official settlements basis, while the same period showed a record deficit in terms of the
liquidity definition. For the full year, preliminary estimates indicate an official settlements surplus significantly larger than the $1.6 billion surplus of
1968. The liquidity balance was in surplus during the fourth quarter, although the deficit for the year was far larger in 1969 than in any previous
year (Chart 13).
Two Measures of the Balance of Payments
The differences in the coverage and concept provided by these two measures must be kept in mind. The official settlements balance measures the
change in our holdings of international reserve assets, less the change in
liquid and certain nonliquid claims on the United States by foreign official
institutions such as central banks or finance ministries. The liquidity balance
measures the change in our holdings of international reserve assets, less the
change in liquid liabilities to all foreigners, whether official or private.
Thus, sales to foreign official institutions of securities that exceed 1 year
in original maturity (and are hence technically nonliquid) in replacement
of short-term instruments do not affect the results according to the official
settlements basis, but they do improve the liquidity measure. For 1968, for
example, Table 15 shows that such special financial transactions shifted
what would have been a liquidity deficit of $2.1 billion to a liquidity surplus of $0.2 billion. As these instruments are paid off with liquid claims on
the United States, they correspondingly augment the liquidity deficit, leaving the official settlements basis unchanged. In the second and third quarters
of 1969, for example, the reversal of previous special transactions added
approximately $1 billion to the liquidity deficit.
Perhaps an even more fundamental difference between the two measures
concerns the treatment of flows of foreign private short-term funds into the
United States. To the extent that private foreigners obtain or withhold dollars from their central banks, these flows reduce the official settlements
measure of the deficit (or increase the surplus). Under the liquidity definition, however, a net increase in liquid liabilities to foreigners (whether
official or private) indicates an enlarged deficit. Thus if private foreigners




126

TABLE 15.—U.S. balance of payments, 1960-69
[Billions of dollars]

Type of transaction

Merchandise trade balance.
Exports
Imports
Balance on investment income..
U.S. investments abroad
Foreign investments in the
United States
_.
Balance on other services.
Exports2
Imports
BALANCE ON GOODS AND
SERVICES2
Unilateral transfers, net; transfers to foreigners (—) 3

BALANCE ON CURRENT
ACCOUNT

1960-64
average

1965

1966

1967

1969 first 3
quarters i

1968

5.4
21.7
-16.2

5.0
26.4
-21.5

3.9
29.4
-25.5

3.9
30.7
-26.8

0.6
33.6
-33.0

-35.2

3.2
4.3

4.2
5.9

4.1
6.3

4.5
6.9

4.8
7.7

4.5
8.8

-1.2

-1.7

-2.1

-2.4

-2.9

-4.3

-2.7

-2.0
7.1
-9.1

-2.8
7.7
-10.5

-3.2
8.6
-11.8

-2.9

9.3
-12.2

-3.0
9.9
-12.9

7.1

5.3

5.2

2.5

1.9

5.3

-8.0

5.9
-2.6

-2.8

-2.8

-3.0

0.3
35.5

-2.9

-2.8

-.3

-.9

3.3

4.4

2.4

-1.8

-3.4

-3.6

-2.9

-2.7

-3.4

-1.8

-3.5

-3.6

-3.2

-3.0

-4.1

.1

.1

.1

.3

.3

.7

1.6

1.0

-1.1

-.7

-3.1

-4.4

-2.7

-.3

-.7

-2.5

-2.1

-2.1

-1.3

-1.6

-1.5

-2.4

-2.2

-2.3

.6

.2

2.4

3.1

8.2

2.3

Errors and omissions

-1.0

-.6

-.5

-1.0

-.6

-4.3

BALANCEON LIQUIDITY BASIS..

-2.8

-1.3

-1.4

-3.5

.2

-10.8

.2

.1

.8

1.3

2.3

-1.1

.8

.1

2.4

1.5

3.8

11.6

-1.3

.3

-3.4

1.6

1.9

-.1

1.6

1.0

2.3

-1.2

-2.1

-9.6

Balance on direct private investments..
U.S.
direct
investments
abroad....
_.
Foreign direct investments
in the United States
BALANCE ON CURRENT AND
DIRECT INVESTMENT ACCOUNTS
Transactions in U.S. private nondirect assets, net
Transactions in U.S. Government
assets, excluding oficia reserve
assets, net
Transactions in foreign nondirect
nonliquid assets, net

Less: Certain nonliquid liabilities
to foreign official agencies
Plus: Foreign private liquid capital,
t
net
BALANCE ON OFFICIAL RESERVE TRANSACTIONS BASIS.

-2.2

Addendum:
Special financial transactions..

BALANCEON LIQUIDITY BASIS
EXCLUDING SPECIAL FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS....

<*)

-1.2

-2.9

2.2

-4.6

* Average of the first 3 quarters at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
2 Excludes transfers under military grants.
3 Excludes military grants of goods and services.
* Not available.
Note.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

gain more short-term claims on the United States than are lost by official
foreign holders of dollars, the difference adds to our liquidity deficit. During
1969, the large short-term capital flow into the United States caused by the
Euro-dollar borrowings of U.S. commercial banks has made the difference
in treatment unusually important.




127

The Euro-Dollar Market and Short-Term

Capital Movements

Euro-dollar deposits are liabilities of banks outside the United States (including foreign branches of U.S. banks) which are denominated in dollars
rather.than local currency. London is the center of the Euro-dollar market
in which such funds are placed and borrowed. Large amounts of U.S. dollars
are also on deposit in continental Europe, Canada, and Japan. The Eurodollar market consists almost entirely of short-term funds, with few deposit
maturities exceeding 180 days. (There is a counterpart long-term market
for Euro-bonds, including substantial amounts of securities of U.S. corporations, offered in Europe but denominated in dollars.)
While exact measurement of the size of the Euro-dollar market is not possible, estimates published by the Bank for International Settlements indicate
that the market may have been roughly three times as large in 1968 as it was
in 1964, growing from $9 billion to $25 billion, with further growth during
1969. One can gain some idea of the increasing importance of this market
as a source of foreign borrowing for U.S. banks by looking at the liabilities
of U.S. banks to their foreign branches. These grew from approximately
$1 billion in 1964 to more than $14 billion by the summer of 1969, after
which they remained relatively constant. The branches themselves had Eurodollar liabilities amounting to $23.2 billion on September 30, 1969. Eurodollar deposits are also held in foreign-owned banks abroad.
The Euro-dollar market has become a major link among national shortterm money markets. Its growth owes much to the impetus generated by
various restrictions on competitive practices in national money markets. The
part that domestic banking regulations play in stimulating the growth of the
Euro-dollar market is well illustrated by the effects of the Federal Reserve's
Regulation Q, fixing the maximum interest rates which member banks
can pay on most types of time deposits. During 1969, short-term interest
rates moved well above the Regulation Q ceiling, impeding the access of
American banks to domestic money markets. In their search for funds, U.S.
banks turned to Euro-dollar borrowing through their foreign branches. This
demand helped push Euro-dollar interest rates upward to more than 11
percent in June, and they stayed close to that level for the remainder of 1969
(Chart4,page36).
These high interest rates attracted funds from Europe's domestic money
and capital markets. Participation in the Euro-dollar market required U.S.
dollars, and the major part of these dollars ultimately came from European
central banks, with the result that European countries did not gain official
reserves on the scale they might otherwise have done, or even lost part of
these reserves. Thus, such flows from European domestic money and capital
markets into Euro-dollars contributed to the U.S. official settlements surplus.
As private European funds were attracted to the Euro-dollar markets, interest rates in European money markets rose. In response to the pull exerted
by the Euro-dollar market, several European countries have taken actions




128

Chart 13

U.S. Balance of International Payments
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

60

_

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF
GOODS AND SERVICES

-

50 -~

EXPORTS
\

40

*

IMPORTS

30 -

-

1960 64
"
AVERAGE

1965
iyOD

1966

1967

1969-1/

1968

10
—

BALANCE ON
CURRENT ACCOUNT
AND DIRECT PRIVATE INVESTMENT
,..

BALANCE ON
OFFICIAL RESERVE
TRANSACTIONS BASIS

/ _ _

^
~

-10

_

BALANCE ON LIQUIDITY BASIS

1
1960-64
AVERAGE

1
1QA.
Iyo

°

i

1
1966

1967

i
1968

1969 J/

J/BALANCES ON LIQUIDITY BASIS AND ON OFFICIAL RESERVE TRANSACTIONS BASIS ARE ESTIMATES FOR
FULL YEAR. ALL OTHER DATA ARE FOR FIRST 3 QUARTERS AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES,
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

to restrict the outflow of funds from their domestic money and capital
markets.
The surge in Euro-dollar interest rates, together with the Regulation Q
ceiling on domestic deposit rates, also provided a strong incentive for U.S.
depositors to place funds in the Euro-dollar market rather than directly with
U.S. banks. As a result a circular flow of U.S. funds developed, in which
dollars moved from the United States to the Euro-dollar market and back
again through the foreign branches of U.S. banks. This flow involved both
an increase in U.S. residents' claims on foreign institutions (which largely
went unrecorded and therefore showed up as "errors and omissions" in the




129

balance of payments) and an increase in liquid liabilities to foreign branches
of U.S. banks. The result of the circular flow was an increase in the liquidity
deficit.
On both counts, then, Euro-dollars contributed to a divergence between
the official settlements and liquidity balances. When dollars were drawn out
of foreign official reserves, they influenced the official settlements balance
without affecting the liquidity balance. When dollars originating in the
United States were routed through the Euro-dollar market, they increased
the liquidity deficit without affecting the official settlements balance.
Long-Term Capital Movements and Investment Income
Long-term capital movements have also strongly influenced the U.S.
balance of payments in recent years. In response to the limits imposed by the
Direct Investment Program on net direct investment abroad with U.S. funds
and to the high cost and reduced availability of domestic funds, U.S. corporations have been increasing their efforts to raise long-term funds abroad. At
the same time, a substantial number of foreign investors have broadened
their portfolios to include American common stocks. During the first three
quarters of 1969, foreign purchases of U.S. corporate securities are estimated
to have been $1.8 billion, or $0.5 billion more than net sales of foreign stocks
and bonds to U.S. investors over the same period. Direct U.S. investment
abroad also continued to be large during the first three quarters of 1969.
The heavy U.S. borrowing abroad in recent years brought to a halt the
rapid growth of the U.S. net international investment position. Between the
end of 1966 and the end of 1968 net assets remained virtually unchanged at
$65 billion. The composition and growth of the U.S. international investment position are given in Table 16.
Earnings on U.S. investments abroad have continued to contribute
to the U.S. balance of payments. During 1968, our rate of return on direct
investments abroad reversed its previous decline and rose almost a full
percentage point above the 11 percent of 1967. During the first three quarters of 1969, income from direct and other private U.S. investment abroad
is estimated to have reached an annual rate of almost $8.0 billion, up
about $1.0 billion from 1968.
On the other hand, interest payments on foreign investments in the
United States have increased even more rapidly, reflecting heavy U.S.
short-term borrowing from abroad during the first half of 1969. High interest
rates also increased the cost of refinancing previous borrowings. In the third
quarter, interest payments by U.S. commercial banks on their liabilities to
foreign branches were running at an annual rate of approximately $1.5
billion, rising from less than a quarter of a billion dollars in late 1967. For
the first three quarters of 1969, income on private foreign investments in the
United States is estimated at roughly $2.6 billion, $0.4 billion more than the
total for the whole of 1968.




130

TABLE 16.—International investment position of the United States, 1955, 1965, and 1968
[Millions of dollars; end of year]

Total
1965

19681

Western
Europe,
19681

61,387
120,126

65, 013
146,134

-8,278
39,658

26,750
19,395
7,355
2,386

81,197
71,044
49,474
21,570
10,153

101,900
88,930
64,756
24,174
12,970

13,143
22,797

23,479
15,450

28,524

27, 839
13,408

58,739
26,374

5,076
6,575
1,757

8,797
14, 599
2,978

10, 815
19, 528
9,924

Type of investment

1955
Net international investment position of the
United States

37,237

U.S. assets and investments abroad 2_

65,076

Private investments
Long-term
Direct
Other
Short-term assets and claims.
U.S. Government nonliquid credits and
claims.
Monetary reserve assets
Foreign assets and investments in the United
States
Long-term
Direct
Corporate stocks.
Other
...
Nonliquid short-term assets and U.S. Government obligations
Liquid assets
Private liabilities reported by banks...
Other

29,136

Latin

Canada, American
19681 Republics,
19681

20,704

15,060

31,694

22,281

28,124

31,679

17,077

24,687
19,386
5,301
3,437

30,476
19,488
10,988
1,203

13,791
11,010
2,781
3,286
5,204

8,011

1
1

15,710

3,523

4

81,121

47,936

10,990

7,221

40,267

26,037

6,172

7,750
12,989
5,298

2,659
3,271
242

2,749
164
1,411
1,174

900

3,250

7,237

4,591

1,638

164

13,531
7,686
5,845

29,115

33,617

3,180

17,195
11,920

24,460
9,157

17,308
12, 580
4,728

4,308
4,190
118

2,615
565

1 Preliminary. Total includes other foreign countries and international organizations and unallocated, not shown separately
in this table.
2 Includes U.S. gold stock.
Source: Department of Commerce.

THE PROBLEM OF INTERNATIONAL EQUILIBRIUM
The rapid growth of international trade and capital flows has brought
into sharper focus two essential requirements for an adequate world monetary system. In the first place, there must be sufficient official liquidity
to finance temporary imbalances. Second, the terms of exchange between
national currencies should be sufficiently stable to foster confidence in
international dealings, but not so rigid that they preclude the adjustments
that may be needed from time to time as trading patterns and terms of trade
undergo inevitable change. The urgency of progress in both these directions
has been underlined in recent years by the increasing frequency of international financial disturbances. The ad hoc solutions for these have often been
to impose various restraints that now threaten to obstruct further advances
in the efficiency of the international economy.
The past year has seen important improvements, especially in the direction of greater liquidity. Years of discussion and negotiations culminated
in final agreement to create Special Drawing Rights, a new international
reserve asset. Now, for the first time in history, there is an international
arrangement for systematically creating reserves. Also, the official parities
of two important currencies were adjusted during 1969. France reduced




the exchange value of the French franc in August. Following repeated
inflows of speculative capital—most notably, the flood of between $4
billion and $5 billion in May and over $1.5 billion in September—the
Germans allowed the mark to float upward at the end of September,
and a new, higher parity was chosen in October. These two parity adjustments, together with the devaluation of the British pound in November 1967,
have resulted in a pattern of exchange rates that is more closely in line with
international competitive positions. A lessening of strains and instability in
the international financial situation has followed, and the effects are apparent
in the exchange markets. Most notable, perhaps, has been the narrowing of
the discounts and premiums on forward exchange, which had become abnormally large before these adjustments in parities were made.
The agreement to create Special Drawing Rights provides a fundamental
and lasting method for dealing with the liquidity question, but the changes
in exchange rates during the past year do not assure an equally permanent
solution to the adjustment problem. Some of the major maladjustments
have been relieved for the time being, but basic forces that could produce
new disequilibria continue to operate. Nations attach different degrees of
importance to different objectives for economic policy. Changes in technology and demands have varying effects among countries. We should use
the period of reduced tensions, which recent currency realignments and advances in providing for needed liquidity have granted us, to consider how the
international financial system might be made more capable of adjusting to
possible future shifts in the world economy.
International Liquidity: Special Drawing Rights
Consideration of how the international economic system might become
better able to cope with changes in the relative positions of individual economies must begin with the landmark decision to establish Special Drawing
Rights (SDR's). As trade and investment grow, countries tend to need
higher reserves. If the reserves coming into the system are insufficient, general success in meeting goals for national reserves becomes impossible, and
the outcome is destructive competition for reserves. Domestic and international policies are warped by a preoccupation with the balance of payments.
Reductions in barriers to trade and investment become ever more difficult;
indeed, international barriers may be increased as a result of the desire to
protect national reserves.
To avoid these undesirable consequences international studies were started
in 1964, focusing on the possibilities of creating a new reserve asset. The establishment of Special Drawing Rights resulted from these studies and from
protracted negotiations later on involving the Group of Ten and the International Monetary Fund. SDR's are created by the IMF and allocated
among the member countries in proportion to their Fund quotas. Because
they are counted as an increase in reserves of the member countries, incentives to compete for reserves should be correspondingly lessened.




132

The preliminary steps to create the SDR's were discussed in the Council's Annual Reports for 1968 and 1969. During the past year, two final steps
were taken in preparation for activation in January 1970. The amendment
to the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund creating
Special Drawing Rights was ratified during August by the recmired 67
member countries having 80 percent of the voting power of the IMF. The
next step resolved the important question of the appropriate amounts of
SDR's. The deficient growth of international reserves made it desirable that
initial allocations of Special Drawing Rights should be substantial. The
decision by the International Monetary Fund to create $9.5 billion in
Special Drawing Rights between 1970 and 1972 should permit an adequate
but not excessive growth of official reserves.
In using SDR's, countries are expected to fulfill the "requirement of need."
SDR's are to be transferred to meet balance-of-payments needs and cover
reserve losses, but not solely to change the composition of reserves. A country
may use SDR's to purchase balances of its own currency from another participant, if the other participant agrees. Another set of provisions enables the
Fund to guide SDR transactions from using countries to countries designated
as eligible recipients on the basis of a number of criteria, including their
balance-of-pavments and reserve position. No country is bound to accept
additional SDR's if its holdings already amount to three times its cumulative
allocations.
During 1969 the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund
also agreed to recommend an increase in quotas in the Fund by a total of $7.6
billion, or 35.5 percent. While an increase in IMF quotas does not, in itself,
result in an increase in "owned" international reserves, it does create a larger
pool of international credit, which acts as a partial substitute for reserves.
(When countries can borrow to finance temporary balance-of-payments
deficits, they are under less pressure to acquire and hold reserves.) As part of
the general increase in quotas, the U.S. quota will, if Congress approves, rise
from $5,160 million to $6,700 million, an increase of 29.8 percent. Special
arrangements were made in order that the proportion of the quotas held by
less developed countries should not fall as much as they would with a mechanical application of the usual criteria based on trade and GNP. These
countries' share of the total quotas will decrease only from 28.3 percent to
27.7 percent, and in absolute terms they will rise from $6,032 million to
$8,014 million.
INTERNATIONAL ADJUSTMENT
Creating the Special Drawing Rights and increasing the IMF quotas
will give nations more time to redress their balance-of-payments disequilibria
in an orderly fashion, but the question of the most effective way to correct
imbalances is still open. In principle, they can be corrected by three
basic measures applied singly or in combination. First, domestic policy can
be altered. Countries with a surplus can adopt more expansive policies and
thereby increase their imports and reduce their exports. Countries with defi-




133

cits can restrict domestic demand, thereby reducing their imports and
increasing their exports. Second, governments can take direct action by
adopting certain selective measures. To correct deficits, countries can
increase tariff rates, or institute import quotas or controls on capital movements and tourist expenditures. In countries where a surplus exists, governments can reduce tariffs, remove other obstructions to imports, or encourage
the outflow of capital. Third, exchange rates can be altered (although, as a
practical matter, the United States cannot adjust its exchange rate). Countries may aim to correct deficits by adjusting the exchange rate of their
currencies downward, a move that will discourage imports and encourage
exports. Surplus countries can appreciate the exchange rate of their currencies, thereby encouraging imports and discouraging exports. The measures a
country selects and its quickness in applying them will depend on its willingness and ability to finance deficits out of reserves and borrowings, or to permit surpluses to build up reserves.
Each of the three general methods for redressing balance-of-payments
disequilibria has its advantages and disadvantages. How much international
synchronization of domestic policies is desirable depends partly on whether
policies to achieve internal stabilization will also restore a balance-of-payments equilibrium. It has been argued, for instance, that maintaining fixed
exchange rates encourages countries to keep inflationary pressures under control, thus reinforcing "discipline." There is no automatic assurance, however, that the internal adjustment required to correct a country's balance
of payments will also contribute to domestic stability. A balance-of-payments
surplus might coincide with a domestic boom, in which case the restrictive policies needed by the domestic economy would further enlarge the
surplus in the country's external payments. Another country might face the
reverse of that situation, with underemployment at home and a deficit in
its external payments. In such instances, there will be strong pressure to
adopt direct action affecting international transactions, and, in some cases,
to alter the exchange rate.
Direct Actions
International adjustment may be attempted through direct actions aimed
at any of the components of the balance of payments, but the nature and
limitations of such controls must be fully recognized. Although at times they
may relieve an urgent situation, their function is essentially palliative. Once
established, moreover, it often proves difficult either to deactivate them or
to integrate them effectively into longer range solutions.
At the time the International Monetary Fund was established, capital
transactions were believed to be a possible source of international disequilibrium, and capital controls were therefore considered preferable to current
account controls as a means of correcting the balance of payments. Capital
controls, however, also have their costs. The case for free international investment is similar to that for free international trade. Broader and freer




134

markets for both capital and goods contribute to economic efficiency, the
growth of the world economy, and a more rapid improvement of living
standards generally. Capital controls create serious administrative difficulties and are likely to inspire a search for loopholes in their provisions.
Once set up, they have a tendency to enmesh the economy in an everwidening circle of restrictions rather than to develop conditions that would
obviate the need for curbs. Furthermore, they are inconsistent with a liberal approach to economic policy and are irksome to business.
In his message of April 4, 1969, the President affirmed the Administration's
intention to move away from controls on capital movements. The program
to restrict direct investment abroad was relaxed; the minimum amount of
investment, that is, the leeway before restraints are applicable, was raised
from $200,000 to $1 million. This measure reduced the number of firms
required to furnish quarterly reports under the program from 3,400 to 650.
Furthermore, an optional earnings quota was established which allows companies to reinvest up to 30 percent of their foreign earnings. The Federal
Reserve guidelines for banks were revised to give them more flexibility in
financing U.S. exports and to resolve some equity problems. For 1970, further changes were made in the Federal Reserve program to encourage the
financing of exports. The former minimum of $1 million under the Foreign
Direct Investment Program was raised to $5 million, so long as investment
over $1 million is used in the less developed countries.
On the trade side, temporary quantitative restrictions on imports are
sanctioned under the GATT as a method for protecting the balance of
payments. Since quantitative restrictions are particularly likely to disrupt
trade, however, there has been some tendency to use import surcharges or a
combination of import surcharges and export subsidies in their place. In
theory, the imposition of a uniform import surcharge combined with an
equivalent export subsidy is close to a change in the exchange rate in its
effects on the trade balance, and therefore almost as neutral as an exchange
rate adjustment with respect to the allocation of resources. In one important
respect, however, these measures are not equivalent to an adjustment in the
exchange rate. The latter applies to all international transactions, including
tourist expenditures and other invisibles, as well as capital items. In contrast, the combination of import surcharges and export grants applies only
to merchandise trade. Furthermore, almost inevitably there are pressures to
exclude certain items from the surcharge-grant system, with the consequence
that specified industries enjoy a degree of protection not granted to others.
It is appropriate for countries having a surplus to reduce their restrictions
on imports and on capital flows, and a number of countries have taken
such steps. (Countries may also undertake unilateral reductions in import
barriers, or a speedup of reductions already agreed upon, to reduce domestic inflationary pressures, as Austria and Canada did during 1969, and as
Switzerland plans to do in early 1970.) Although direct restrictions on imports or capital flows to correct deficits will normally have the undesirable




135

side effect of inhibiting mutually advantageous international exchange,
direct action to deal with a country's surplus by reducing barriers to trade
or capital flows will have favorable side effects and will also lessen the likelihood of restrictive measures by deficit nations. Where possible, therefore,
direct actions should take the form of a relaxation of controls and restraints
by countries with a surplus rather than the introduction or tightening of such
measures by deficit countries.
Exchange Rate Adjustments
Proper management of domestic economic policy, as indicated above,
will not always be sufficient to avoid balance-of-payments difficulties. Other
factors besides improper demand management may create imbalances.
Where the economic policies required for external equilibrium differ greatly
from those that promote price stability and high employment at home, the
Bretton Woods system provides for discrete adjustments in exchange parities.
In practice, however, countries have been reluctant to make such adjustments promptly, and their delays have often generated speculative movements of funds and use of restrictionist measures. The frequency of international financial crises in recent years has focused attention on the possibility of adjusting exchange rates in a calmer and more orderly manner.
At the Annual Meeting of the Governors of the International Monetary
Fund in September, the Managing Director announced that the Fund will
continue its study and appraisal of proposals for "limited flexibility" in
exchange rates. The Secretary of the Treasury made it clear that the United
States will actively participate in and contribute to this study. Although
the results of such studies cannot be foreseen, it is possible to point out some
of the technical and policy problems that will need clarification.
Within the general framework of the Bretton Woods system there is scope
for greater flexibility of exchange rates than has been evident in practice. It
has been suggested that parity adjustments could be made more frequently
and hence in smaller amounts. Some official interest has also focused on proposals to widen the band within which exchange rates would be permitted
to fluctuate around parities, and to provide mechanisms, like the so-called
crawling peg or sliding parity, that would make movements in parity more
gradual than they have been in the past.
Wider Bands
Interest in proposals for wider bands has concentrated on the possible
effects of a modest widening—perhaps changing the present maximum
range of 1 percent on each side of parity to permit a range of 2 percent. In
itself this would do little to improve the adjustment mechanism. What it
might do is to help insulate domestic money markets from movements of
interest-sensitive short-term funds and reduce the largely one-sided speculative options that occur under the present system. However, a modest widening of the band can have no substantial effect in reducing troublesome flows




136

of short-term money unless abrupt changes in parities are considered unlikely.
If people commonly believe that the equilibrium exchange rate falls well
outside the band, the broader band in itself can do little to discourage movements of short-term funds.
For a number of reasons, widening of the present bands cannot wholly
guard against international imbalances sufficiently severe to throw established parities into question. As already pointed out, countries do not attach
equal weight to the different objectives of economic policy. Some nations are
more tolerant of inflation—or of increases in unemployment—than others.
Governments also differ in their ability to influence the trend of costs and
prices effectively. And, even if general price trends were identical in all
countries, balance could be disturbed by changes in demand and supply
patterns for internationally traded goods, or differing trends in government
purchases and receipts. This situation has encouraged some to ask whether
stability of the international monetary system would be improved if smaller
and more frequent changes in parity were made in the hope of avoiding
large discrete jumps.
Smoothly Moving Parities
A number of proposals have been made for smooth and gradual adjustments in parity of up to 2 or 3 percent per year. While these proposals for
"crawling pegs" differ in technical detail, they present in common a number
of the fundamental questions that figure in debates on this subject. One
important issue turns on the degree of national discretion to be encouraged
or permitted in altering exchange rates. Another question is whether
smoothly moving parities would tie interest rates more closely to international developments and thus reduce the independence of domestic monetary policies. It is also feared that parity movements would weaken the
external discipline on domestic policies. And there has been concern about
whether these movements might complicate the conditions under which
international business transactions take place.
The Degree of Discretion. The various proposals for slowly moving
parities range from a completely permissive, discretionary authority to a
completely automatic, mandatory system. A purely discretionary system
might be no more successful than present arrangements in preventing fundamental imbalances that require abrupt changes in parity. Experience suggests that, left to their own discretion, individual countries might postpone
parity changes until political or financial developments made them imperative. On the other hand, a fully automatic system might be unacceptable
to nations that regard control over their exchange rate as an established prerogative of national sovereignty.
A possible compromise may lie between complete discretion and binding
rules. One solution might be to develop presumptive rules that, with a degree
of multilateral surveillance, would guide countries in making appropriate
adjustments in parities.




137

The objective criteria most frequently recommended for incorporation into
such presumptive rules are based on the behavior of spot and forward exchange rates, and on the changes in reserve levels, defined in various ways—
for example, to include or not include short-term funds held by commercial
banks. Typical proposals have urged that desirable parity changes be indicated by a moving average of past spot rates or by reserve movements. An
advantage of including some measure of reserve movements in the criteria
is that rules on direct official intervention in the spot or forward market might
then be unnecessary. (If exchange rates were the only criterion, such rules
might be deemed necessary, since exchange rates can be influenced by official
intervention.) Much technical work remains to be done, however, before
satisfactory criteria for parity changes can be established.
A number of other questions about the most desirable form of a moving
parity system also require further study. For instance, how general would
participation in the system need to be? As an initial step, should one or a
few countries be encouraged to experiment with greater flexibility? Would
slowly moving parities work best if they were accompanied by a widening
of the band around parity? What special problems might arise for regional
economic groupings?
In addition to these technical points, questions have been asked about
the fundamental value of any form of slowly moving parities or widening
of the band in improving the operation of the international monetary system. A full discussion of all of these issues would go beyond the scope of this
chapter, but five of the most commonly raised questions about the desirability of greater exchange rate flexibility will be considered briefly. These
ask what effects a greater flexibility in exchange rates would have on monetary independence; whether internal discipline would suffer; what provision would be made for forward cover on exchange transactions; whether
small but frequent exchange rate adjustments would actually be effective;
and what the implications of greater exchaijige-rate flexibility would be for
the U.S. dollar.
Monetary Independence. One criticism of smoothly moving parities has
been that they would bind monetary policy too closely to international conditions. If, for example, it was generally believed that a country's parity would
move downward at the maximum permitted annual rate—say, 2 percent—
for an extended time and that its spot rate would move down accordingly,
there would be an incentive for capital to move out of the country unless
domestic interest rates were 2-percent higher than foreign rates.
This criticism assumes that movements in the spot rate are predictable.
Under certain conditions they might be. If sliding parities were used in an
attempt to overcome an already existing and sizable disequilibrium, the
direction of future movements in the exchange rate would be clear. This,
however, is a purpose for which sliding parities are not particularly well
suited. Alternatively, movement of the spot rate might be predictable if the
equilibrium rate were gradually rising or falling over time. If a downward




138

crawl in the exchange rate resulted from a more rapid rate of inflation in one
country than in others, that country's domestic capital markets would tend
to reflect these inflationary pressures, and the higher interest rates could
exist for domestic reasons. The need to have higher interest rates because of
the crawling peg might not, therefore, represent a restraint on domestic
policy. Similarly, in countries with less inflation, there would be a tendency
for interest rates to be lower whether there was a crawling peg or not.
Different rates of inflation are not, of course, the only forces that would
cause a crawling peg to move. If the par value of a country's currency were
too high for other reasons, a predictable one-way downward crawl might
raise complications, with international capital flows impelling the monetary
authorities to keep interest rates above the level that they consider desirable
for domestic reasons, perhaps over fairly long periods. In any event, the
important comparison lies between the policy restraint that might result
from the crawl and the policy restraint that now occurs when an exchange
rate is generally considered out of line, and when capital flows may consequently be stimulated by the expectation of a large discrete adjustment
in the exchange rate. Because such adjustments offer the prospect of
immediate sizable gains, the expectation that they will occur has often
been an important motive behind short-term capital flows.
Furthermore, the initial capital flows in response to expected movements
in the exchange rate will greatly overstate the magnitude of continuing
flows. Once financial positions adjust to these changed incentives, capital
movements would probably become much smaller, and the cessation of the
crawl in due course would eliminate the incentives. Finally, the reversible
nature of most liquid capital movements means that problems arising from
short-term capital flows under a sliding parity could to some extent be dealt
with by official financing instead of adjustments in interest rates.
Domestic Discipline. Another concern about slowly moving parities
centers on whether they would reduce the disciplinary effects that reserve
losses may have on nations needing to deal with domestic inflation. Since
upward movements in the par value would have no such effects, it has been
suggested that greater flexibility be allowed only in moving exchange rates
upward. Indeed, an upward movement of the exchange rate would reduce
inflationary pressures and facilitate the maintenance of domestic price
stability in countries having a surplus. For countries with deficits, the validity
of the discipline argument is difficult to assess in general terms. The response
of countries to reserve losses varies considerably. Most countries have been
reluctant to devalue. Some have adopted more restrained domestic policies
as well as imposing restrictions on international transactions. The problems that might be caused by permitting a downward crawl therefore do
not lend themselves to easy generalization.
The Provision of Forward Cover. A third question has to do with the
operation of the forward market when there is greater flexibility in exchange
rates. A change in the international financial system that, whatever its




139

merits, aroused even more uncertainty about exchange rates, might have an
adverse effect on trade and investment. On the other hand, to the extent
that greater flexibility in the exchange rate promoted better adjustment and
that speculative expectations became more stabilized, demands by international traders to cover their exchange risk in the forward market might
actually fluctuate less than they do at present. Moreover, as the chances
of an abrupt and large adjustment in the exchange rate are reduced, the
consequences of being caught without forward cover become correspondingly less serious.
The Effectiveness of Small Changes in Parity. Another question is
whether small but frequent changes in parity would be an effective means
of promoting adjustments, since the evidence suggests that it takes time for
trade to respond fully to a change in exchange rates; that is, elasticities in
international trade are generally higher in the long run than in the short run.
This lag is, of course, more relevant in situations where small changes in the
exchange rate are used to correct already existing imbalances than where
such changes are used to prevent a disequilibrium from developing. That
being so, small but frequent adjustments of parity would probably be more
useful in maintaining approximate equilibrium than in restoring a balance
after a substantial disequilibrium has been allowed to develop.
The U.S. Position. Because of the central role of the U.S. dollar in the
international monetary system, the United States cannot move its own parity
with respect to other currencies. This implies that the United States would
be particularly concerned with the direction in which other countries were
moving their parities. A bias in one direction or the other could lead to an
overvaluation or undervaluation of the dollar. Historically, devaluations of
currencies with respect to the dollar have been more frequent and on average larger than revaluations. While to some extent this may reflect greater
price stability in the United States than in many foreign countries, the danger of systematic overvaluation as a result of greater flexibility should be
guarded against. This could be done by appropriate specification of the presumptive rules mentioned earlier.
THE DOLLAR AND INTERNATIONAL EQUILIBRIUM
The United States has the world's largest economy, and its exports and
imports are larger than those of any other nation. These facts alone would
make economic developments and policy here a matter of great concern to
the world economy. A further point, however, is that the dollar has become
the principal international currency. Much of the world's trade is denominated in dollars, and throughout the world dollars are widely held as
reserves and as working balances to accommodate trade and investment.
Because the dollar plays a central role in the international monetary
system, the United States is more constrained in its adjustment policies than
other countries. Since the United States does not have primary control over
any market exchange rate, other nations in effect determine the exchange




140

value of the dollar. It is generally recognized that exchange rates are a matter
of international concern, and the United States is consulted through the IMF
and other organizations regarding the appropriateness of exchange rate
adjustments. Yet the United States clearly exercises only indirect influence
over the exchange value of its currency, in contrast to the more direct
control exercised by other countries.
The central position of the dollar in the international system was not the
result of any conscious decision or strategy on the part of the U.S. Government. It was the natural consequence of the size, strength, and stability of
the U.S. economy, traits which were especially evident during the early
years after the Second World War. This central role provides benefits for
the United States, but it also entails problems and responsibilities.
For some years now, concern over the state of the U.S. balance of payments has been evident. The discussions of a dollar shortage in the 1950's
have given way to discussions of the U.S. payments deficits. Nevertheless, in
this same interval the predominant change in the exchange parities of other
currencies has been downward (not upward) in relation to the dollar. There
have been only three upward changes in the past decade—the revaluations
of the German mark by 5 percent in 1961 and 9.3 percent in 1969, and the
revaluation of the Dutch guilder by 5 percent in 1961.
In part—perhaps in large part-^this paradox can be attributed to the
fact that international liquidity needed to grow, and a large part of this
growth has been through official accumulation of dollars. To be sure, not
every payments imbalance is an indication of a low overall level of liquidity.
But when many countries simultaneously begin to feel that their balance-ofpayments positions are too weak, it is evident that there is a general shortage
of liquidity. It was precisely to eliminate this shortage and the resultant
danger of a destructive competition for reserves that the Special Drawing
Rights were instituted. The introduction of SDR's should moderate the
general tendency to consider that official reserves are too low.
It is also important to the United States and to the international community that the international adjustment mechanism be strengthened. Failure to achieve this could have serious consequences. New strains on the
world monetary system could develop unless our payments position assures
foreign monetary authorities and private traders that the dollar will remain
strong. The present situation, in which we maintain an official settlements
surplus only because of large-scale foreign borrowing by U.S. corporations
and banks at high interest rates, creates a feeling of some uneasiness here
and abroad, and observers generally regard the present structure of the
U.S. international accounts as abnormal and temporary.
Whatever the United States does is felt in other countries. We, therefore,
have every reason to consider the effects that our economic policies will
have on them. Continuing prosperity and economic stability abroad depends
in part on stable growth in the United States. Because of our size, other
countries feel the influence of inflationary or deflationary pressures originat141
372-111 O—70



10

ing in this country. If U.S. inflation were to continue at its recent levels,
some countries might face the painful necessity of choosing between the
inflationary consequences of a large export surplus or an upward adjustment of their exchange rates. For international as well as domestic reasons, it is most important that the United States restore internal balance and
achieve sustainable, noninflationary growth. This responsibility, along with
reasonably free access to U.S. markets, constitutes our predominant obligation toward international economic well-being.




142

Appendix A
UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE ECONOMY







CONTENTS
UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE ECONOMY
UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS AND THEIR INTERPRETATION

Page
147
147

UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR MOBILITY

148

T H E DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

151

UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG DIFFERENT GROUPS

152

List of Tables and Charts
Tables
A - l . Unemployed Persons by Reason for Unemployment, 1969
A-2. Unemployment by Age, Sex, and Race, 1969
A—3. Selected Measures of Unemployment, 1969
A-4. Distribution of Activities of Persons 16-21 Years of Age, 1968-69
A-5. Distribution of Activities of Persons 16-21 Years of Age by Sex and Race,
1968-69
Chart
A - l . Unemployment Rate and Duration




145

149
152
153
154
155
150




Unemployment and the Economy
The unemployment rate occupies a prominent place in the array of economic statistics that indicate the overall state of the economy. This central
position is to a large extent attributable to the fact that it serves as a broad
but direct index of the extent to which the mandate of the Federal Government embodied in the Employment Act of 1946 is being fulfilled.
Much of the attention the unemployment rate receives, however, is a
result of its role as an indicator of economic waste and public welfare.
As a Nation we are highly and properly sensitive to the problem, of the
person seeking employment and unable to find a job. We need to know as
much as possible about the numbers and characteristics of the unemployed,
and the reasons they are not working, so that the most effective remedies
can be devised. In the management of economic policy it is essential to
see this complex picture clearly in order to formulate a judgment about the
relative emphasis to be placed on general measures to enlarge employment
opportunities and on other special-purpose programs to deal with more
specific manpower problems. This appendix examines information bearing
on the character and composition of unemployment in our recent experience.
UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS AND THEIR INTERPRETATION
Unemployment is usually accompanied by an interruption or decline
in the income flow that often represents the principal source of livelihood
for a family or individual. Unemployment can, therefore, cause substantial
hardship, particularly if it occurs for the family breadwinner and if it
persists for a considerable period of time. The implications of unemployment and loss of income for economic well-being and morale provide ample
justification for public concern about unemployment and for government
policies to reduce its incidence and to cushion its impact when it occurs.
While these social implications of unemployment are widely recognized,
and appropriately given great emphasis, some other facets of unemployment in the economy and the interpretation of the unemployment rate
have received much less recognition and discussion.
The unemployment rate is sometimes viewed as an indicator of wasted
resources in the economy. In its simplest formulation this view often rests
on the notion that labor services lost through involuntary unemployment
are irretrievably lost, and that the loss serves no economic purpose. It can
legitimately be argued that the loss in labor services is not restricted to the
period of idleness if unemployment is accompanied by loss of income




147

that results in a decline in the health and well-being of workers. In
addition, loss of proficiency in skills and loss of motivation and morale accompanying idleness may further increase the waste of human resources
that involuntary unemployment entails. Nevertheless this view of unemployment as an important source of waste is applicable to only a part of actual
unemployment and that portion declines as lower unemployment rates are
achieved.
The level of the unemployment rate and the numbers of unemployed
persons in various subcategories are often taken to indicate the narrow segment on which the incidence of slack in the economy falls—the unemployed.
The cost to society of unemployment is then viewed as the earnings loss implied for those experiencing unemployment. Viewed in the context of aggregate economic policy, the cost of economic conditions or policies that result
in increased unemployment thus appears to be concentrated on those in the
fraction of the labor force reported as unemployed. While these costs are
borne disproportionately by some groups, the portion of the work force experiencing unemployment over a period of time is much larger than the unemployment rate suggests. Moreover, involuntary part-time employment,
other forms of underemployment, and nonparticipation in the labor force as
a result of poor prospects for obtaining employment are not reflected in the
unemployment rate. Some unemployment is a byproduct of labor market adjustments such as entry into the labor force, seasonal variation in manpower
requirements, and changes in the composition of demand. Although its origins
may be inherent in the operation of a free labor market, even under conditions of high demand, such unemployment may cause serious problems for
some workers.
Recent unemployment rates have been low compared to our historical
experience since World War II. The interim goal of a 4-percent average
annual unemployment rate, set out in the early sixties, has been surpassed
for 4 years (1966-69), and in this period the unemployment rate was at its
lowest level since the Korean conflict in the early fifties. The primary
policy emphasis has now shifted from one of reducing slack in the economy
and further decreasing unemployment to one of monetary and fiscal restraint
to contain the forces of inflation. Thus an examination of the character and
composition of unemployment in our recent experience will indicate the
dimensions of the labor market adjustment process under high employment
conditions.
UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR MOBILITY
The American economy has been characterized by growth and technological change. This has been accompanied by a shifting pattern of output and resource use. A highly mobile labor force has facilitated the adjustment processes necessary to accommodate rapid and continued change.
New employment opportunities constantly open up providing more productive and higher paying jobs than in other sectors of the economy. Increasing productivity and rising wages have resulted from this continuing




148

reallocation of labor to more productive employment as well as from improvement in workers' skill levels and an increasing supply of more productive capital inputs.
Many workers are able to change jobs without an intervening period
of unemployment, and many of those leaving school or reentering the
labor force have jobs lined up in advance. But obtaining new employment
often involves time and effort in search of the most suitable and productive
opportunities consistent with workers' skills and preferences. Time spent
in search of the most suitable employment in a generally active labor market
can be regarded as a constructive activity on the part of some workers. In
those cases it should not be regarded as a waste of resources, just as time
spent in schooling, skill training, or other activities to upgrade earning
power are not regarded as economic waste. There is a cost to the worker
and to the economy of such "frictional" unemployment, but improvements
in job status, earnings, working conditions, and job satisfaction are offsetting benefits.
Ways should be sought to reduce this cost, without losing the attendant
benefits. For example, information plays a crucial role in the process of
satisfactorily matching workers with jobs. Providing job information may
be a worthwhile social investment, decreasing the time and effort workers
must typically spend in search of suitable employment and improving labor
utilization. The Department of Labor has long played a leading role in
gathering and disseminating job market information, and tr^is Administration is accelerating the development and introduction of systems such as the
Job Bank and experiments in computerized matching of workers with jobs.
Many job changes with accompanying periods of unemployment are a
result of voluntary turnover, workers leaving their previous employment in
search of more favorable alternatives. In 1969, 15 percent of the unemployed voluntarily left their last job (Table A - l ) . In addition, many of
those unemployed were entering or reentering the labor force—49 percent
in 1969. These workers who entered or reentered the labor force are actively
using this time in an effort to find suitable jobs. Unemployment for workers
in these categories often is not strictly involuntary. For many of them it can
be described more properly as time voluntarily devoted to obtaining productive employment, improved job status, or more suitable and perhaps
higher paid employment.
TABLE

A—1.— Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment,

Number
(thousands)

Reason

Percentage
distribution

2,831

Lost last job
Left last job
Reentered labor force
Never worked before
Note.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

149

100

1,017
436
965
413

Total unemployment




1969

36
15

34
15

The rapid pace of technological change contributing to rising living
standards leads to changes in the pattern of labor use that often require some
involuntary job changes. In addition, the seasonal nature of some work,
secondary effects of work stoppages, and temporary adjustments in production and inventories result in involuntary loss of employment. In 1969,
36 percent of those unemployed left their last job involuntarily. Most were
unemployed for only a short time. One out of two were unemployed less
than 5 weeks as compared to slightly over 4 weeks for those who became unemployed for reasons other than job loss.
The nature of the job search required to obtain suitable employment
for those workers experiencing unemployment is indicated by the amount
of time the typical unemployed worker spends in search of employment. In
1969, the median duration of unemployment was less than 4.5 weeks (Chart
A - l ) . The search period required for the typical unemployed worker to
obtain employment varies with the level of the unemployment rate. Since
1965, it has been less than 5 weeks. Thus the predominant share of those unemployed spend a relatively short time in search of suitable jobs. Some
workers experiencing frequent short periods of unemployment are, nevertheless, seriously affected by unemployment that is typically of short duration.
Chart

A-l

Unemployment Rate and Duration
PERCENT

WEEKS

12
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

10

UNEMPLOYMENT R A T E - ! /
(Left scale)

MEDIAN DURATION OF
UNEMPLOYMENT
(Right scale)

I I I I I I I I 1 I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I

1955

57

59

61

63

65

-^UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.




I5O

67

69

Many workers, of course, enter or leave the labor force without suffering
any unemployment. In 1968, for example, over 90 million persons worked
at some time during the year. (Data for 1969 are not yet available.) Slightly
over 10 million of those who worked were unemployed at some time during
the year. Hence over 80 million persons worked in 1968 and experienced no
unemployment even though the average number employed was less than
76 million. Viewed in a slightly different manner, over 32 million persons
worked less than 50 weeks in 1968. But less than 9 million (27 percent) of
these part-year workers experienced some unemployment. The rest of those
who worked less than a full year entered or voluntarily left the labor force
during the year. In addition, many workers who worked a full year changed
jobs without experiencing any intervening unemployment. In manufacturing alone, a sector accounting for over 25 percent of average employment
in 1968, Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that almost 11 million job
changes and new hires occurred—a number almost equal to the total number of persons experiencing unemployment throughout the entire economy
in that year. These data illustrate the amount of flux in the labor force. They
also indicate that changing jobs and obtaining employment typically require
far less search time than is indicated by the median duration of unemployment, since those statistics refer only to workers experiencing unemployment.
THE DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT
An increase in the unemployment rate obviously results in additional
persons experiencing unemployment. It is less generally recognized that
part of the increase in the unemployment rate is attributable to a lengthening in the time that workers must typically spend in search of suitable
employment. More people are unemployed because of layoffs and an
inability to find other employment immediately. Others who enter the
labor force or who left previous employment are more likely than before
to go through a period of job search instead of finding suitable employment
immediately. Since the increase in the period of time typically required to
find work is reflected in the reported unemployment rate, the number of
additional people experiencing unemployment over a period of time is
proportionately less than the increase in the number reported as unemployed
at any given time.
An increase of 1 percentage point in the unemployment rate would, on
the basis of past experience, be expected to result in an increase of about
1.4 weeks in the median time required for those becoming unemployed to
obtain jobs. Thus, from the point of view of both the larger number of workers
experiencing unemployment and the longer average duration of unemployment, higher unemployment rates increase the costs that must be incurred to find suitable jobs by those entering the labor force or changing
employment.
Workers most seriously affected by unemployment and increases in the
unemployment rate are the long-term unemployed. In 1968, for example,
over 900,000 workers experienced more than 6 months of unemployment




during the year, more than half of them having more than one interval
of unemployment. Yet the number unemployed more than 6 months at
any given time averaged about 156,000. Thus even this group of long-term
unemployed is subject to substantial turnover.
For the long-term unemployed, searching for suitable employment is
extremely costly, and the consequences for family income when the principal
earner is unemployed for a long period are likely to be severe. Many of
these workers undoubtedly have handicaps impairing their ability to get
and hold jobs. Manpower training programs to improve their employability
or special programs to give them access to job opportunities are required.
Fortunately, their numbers are relatively small. There were 133,000 reported
as unemployed for 6 months or more in 1969 monthly statistics; 42,000 of
these were married males with wives present. Although they represent a small
group in a labor force of over 80 million, the costs unemployment imposes
on them justify strong manpower policies to improve their employment
prospects and further reduce the number in this group.
UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG DIFFERENT GROUPS
Unemployment rates differ markedly among classes of workers and
population groups. They are particularly high for teenagers, and relatively
high for women and for Negro and other races (Tables A-2 and A-3).
TABLE A—2.— Unemployment by age, sex, and race, 1969
Age, sex, and race

Number
(thousands)

Total unemployment
Teenagers 16-19 years of age. _
Males
White
Negro and other races.
Females
White
Negro and other races.

Percentage
distribution

Rate
(percent) i

100

3.5

853

30

12.2

441
343
97

16
12
3

11.4
10.1
21.3

412
317
95

15
11
3

13.3
11.5
27.7

2,831

1,370

48

3.2

Males
White
Negro and other races..

630
509
122

22
18
4

2.4
2.1
4.2

Females
Negro and other races..

740
571
168

26
20
6

4.7
4.2
7.2

Adults 45 years of age and over..

608

21

2.0

Negro and other races..

332
285
47

12
10
2

1.7
1.6
2.8

Females
White
Negro and other races..

276
235
41

10
8
1

2.4
2.3
3.3

Adults 20-44 years of age-

White

Males
White....

i Number of unemployed in each group as percent of labor force in that group.
Note.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




TABLE A-3.—Selected measures of unemployment, 1969
Number
(thousands)

Measure

Total unemployment

Rate
(percent)

2,831

3.5

Race:
White
Negro and other races

2,261
570

3.1
6.4

Selected type of worker:
Blue collar
White collar

1,154
780

3.9
2.1

1,403
1,428

4.7

Sex:
Male
Female
Marital status:
Male:
Married
Other.

582

__ _

821

Female:
Married
Other

689

739

2.8

1.5
7.1
3.9
5.8

Note.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Teenagers and Young People
Almost 40 percent of the unemployed in 1969 were persons 16-21, although this age group comprised only 13 percent of the labor force. The
unemployment rate for persons 16-21 years of age was 10.4 percent in
1969, while that for persons 22 years of age and over was 2.4 percent. Since
the overall unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, the high rates for persons
16-21 years of age contributed 1.1 percentage points to the overall rate.
But the high unemployment rates of young workers give a misleading impression of the incidence of unemployment among teenagers as a group as
well as of their welfare implications.
The pattern of activities of persons in the 16-21 age class differs markedly
from that for older persons. The primary activity of nearly half (45.5 percent in 1969) of the persons in the civilian population age 16-21 years old
is schooling. Although their unemployment rate was 10.4 percent, only 3.9
percent of all the persons in this age class were both unemployed and not
attending school.
Examining only annual averages obscures the large seasonal variation
in the labor force and employment that occurs in this age class. During the
school year (October 1968-May 1969) 58.9 percent were attending school
(Table A-4). The percentage in school dropped to 6.5 percent in the
summer months (July and August 1969) and the unemployment rate of
the 16-21 year age group increased from 9.8 to 10.1 percent. The percent of those in this age class who were unemployed and not in school increased from 2.7 to 6.5 percent. The number in the labor force, however,
increased by more than one-third. This short-term increase for the summer
months occurs for a period averaging about 3 months or less.




*53

T A B L E A—4.—Distribution of activities of persons 16-21 years of age, 1968-69

1969 annual

Activity

average

Percentage distribution of civilian noninstitutional population 16-21
years of age, total

School year,

October 1968May 1969

Summer
months,
July and
August 1969

100.0

100.0

100.0

Employed
Unemployed..

13.0
1.7

17.3
2.1

1.2
.2

Not in labor force.

30.8

39.6

5.0

Employed
Unemployed..

35.5
3.9

27.2

2.7

58.2
6.5

Not in labor force.

15.1

11.1

28.9

11.7
9.9

10.7
9.2

15.3
10.0

Major activity, going to school:
In civilian labor force:

Major activity, other:
In civilian labor force:

Unemployment rate, persons 16-21 years of age (percent):
In school
Not in school
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

During the school year 2.1 percent of those in the 16-21 year age class
were in school and unemployed. During most of the school year over 90
percent of those unemployed and in school were interested in only parttime work. In the summer months about 25 percent were looking for
part-time work. Even in the large short-term bulge in the labor force
occurring in the summer months only 4.8 percent of the population in
this age class was unemployed, not in school, and looking for full-time
work.
Unemployment rates, particularly in the summer months and for Negro
and other nonwhite races, are comparatively high for persons in the 16-21
year age class (Table A-5). This is in part a result of the large seasonal
change in the labor force that occurs in the summer months. For this age
class entry and reentry into the labor force are also much more prevalent
than for older workers. This is a period in which a large share of the transition between schooling and attachment to the work force is accomplished.
Persons in this age class are particularly vulnerable to unemployment
because many are seeking their first job. Moreover, many of the early
school-leavers enter the labor force without skills or qualifications that are
easily recognizable by employers. Many are inexperienced at searching for
work and often change jobs frequently to explore different types of employment. The large share of those in this age class that are usually searching
for employment, their inexperience in job search, and the relative lack of
information both on the part of employers and job seekers are all factors
contributing to the high unemployment rates they experience. Lack of
family and other commitments also often makes their attachment to work
and to any given job more casual than that for older workers.




X

54

years of age by sex and race, 1968-69
TABLE A-5.—Distribution of activities of persons 16-21

Percent of noninstitutional
population 16-21 years of age

Unemployment rate
(percent),
persons 16-21
years of age

Period, sex, and race
In
school

Unemployed
In
school

Not in
school

In
school

Not in
school

School year, October 1968-May 1969:
Males:
White..
Negro and other races

67.8
59.2

2.5
3.5

2.2
5.0

9.7
22.2

7.7
14.4

Females:
White
Negro and other races

52.9
47.5

1.4
2.2

2.4
6.0

9.4
25.2

8.0
19.7

6.2
6.6

.2
.1

5.9
12.7

11.6
9.1

7.9
17.6

6.3
8.6

.2
.4

5.5
10.4

19.3
27.3

9.6
. 21.1

Summer months, July and August 1969:
Males:
White
Negro and other races
Females:
White... .
. . . .
Negro and other races

.

.

.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The earning capability of many workers in this age class is low relative
to that for older, more experienced workers. A large fraction is also interested in only part-time work, and part-time jobs typically pay lower wages
than full-time, long-term job commitments. Higher minimum wage levels
and expanding coverage requirements may, therefore, be significant factors
influencing recent high unemployment rates for persons in this age class.
The welfare and income implications of unemployment among young
persons are somewhat less serious than for other groups such as adult
married men. Many of these young persons are part of larger family
units. The contribution of working teenagers to average family income in
1966 was about 10 percent. More than three-quarters of those who worked
earned less than $1,000. Moreover, many unemployed teenagers are from
families that are relatively well-to-do. Over 30 percent of unemployed
teenagers were in families with annual incomes of more than $10,000;
about the same fraction were in families with incomes of less than $5,000.

Women
Unemployment rates for women are also relatively high. In 1969, the
unemployment rate for females was 4.7 percent compared to 2.8 percent
for males. Nearly half of unemployed women were married with husbands
present. In a large fraction of these families the husband was undoubtedly
employed, and employment for the wife would represent a secondary
source of income. Among the 739,000 unemployed females not married
or whose husbands are not present, many are young persons with
the special reasons for high unemployment already discussed. Since there
were 412,000 unemployed female teenagers in 1969, they account for a




J

55

large fraction of the unemployed females who were not married or whose
husbands were not present.
Negro and Other Races
Unemployment rates for Negroes and other minority races are roughly
double those for whites, a pattern that has prevailed since the late fifties.
The higher unemployment rate for Negro and other races reflects in part
their different labor force composition. Standardizing for age and sex differences in the labor force decreases the unemployment rates for Negro and
other races from 6.4 to 6.0 percent, but the adjusted rate is still almost
double that for whites (3.1 percent). Standardizing for years of schooling,
industry, occupation, and the like would further decrease the relative unemployment rate of Negro and other races. But the need for adjustments
of this sort simply reflects an historical pattern of discrimination and disadvantage that more recent policies to improve employment qualifications
and opportunities have only begun to ameliorate.
An additional 290,000 jobs for unemployed Negroes and members of
other races in 1969 would have made their unemployment rate equal to that
of whites. This is about 20 percent of the annual increase in average employment in each of the last 5 years. Focusing on the additional jobs required
for members of Negro and other races to bring their unemployment rate
down to the level for whites, however, gives a misleading impression of the
nature of the problem. The problem is not that 290,000 additional members
of Negro and other races are totally unable to obtain employment. In 1969,
for example, 29,000 persons of Negro and other races were reported as unemployed for 6 months or more in a typical month. The fraction of those
unemployed who were unemployed for 6 months or more was slightly higher
for Negro and other races than for whites—5.1 compared to 4.6 percent.
Bringing the unemployment rate for Negro and other races down to the level
prevailing for whites requires long-term policies designed to improve the distribution of education, skill levels, occupational and industrial affiliation,
and job opportunities.




156

Appendix B
REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1969

372-111 0—70




11

157




LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,,

Washington, D.C., December 31,1969.
T H E PRESIDENT:

SIR: The Council of Economic Advisers submits this report on its activities during the calendar year 1969 in accordance with the requirements of
the Congress, as set forth in Section 4 (d) of the Employment Act of 1946.
Respectfully,




PAUL W. MCCRACKEN,

Chairman.
HENDRIK S. HOUTHAKKER.
HERBERT STEIN.




Report to the President on the Activities of the
Council of Economic Advisers During 1969
In 1969, for the third time in its history, the Council of Economic Advisers was entirely reconstituted as the result of a change of Administration.
Paul W. McCracken took office as Chairman of the Council on February 4,
1969, replacing Arthur M. Okun, who became a Senior Research Fellow at
the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. Mr. McCracken, who had previously served as a Council Member for 2 years during 1957 and 1958, is on
leave of absence from the University of Michigan where he is Edmund Ezra
Day University Professor of Business Administration.
Herbert Stein and Hendrik S. Houthakker also became Members on
February 4, 1969. They succeeded Merton J. Peck, of Yale University, and
Warren L. Smith, of the University of Michigan. Mr. Houthakker is on
leave of absence from Harvard University where he is Professor of Economics. Mr. Stein is on leave from his post as Senior Research Fellow at the
Brookings Institution.
Below is a list of all past Council Members and their dates of service:
Name
Edwin G. Nourse
Leon H. Keyssrling.
John D. Clark.
Roy Blough
Robert C. Turner
Arthur F. Burns
Neil H.Jacoby
Walter W.Stewart—.
Raymond J.Saulnier..
Josephs. Davis
Paul W. McCracken..
Karl Brandt
Henry C. Wallich
James Tobin
Kermit Gordon
Walter W. Heller....
Gardner Ackley
John P. Lewis...
Otto Eckstein....
Arthur M. Okun.
James S. Duesenberry.
Merton J. Peck
Warren L Smith




Position

Oath of office date

Separation date

Chairman
Vice Chairman. __
Acting Chairman.
Chairman
Membar
Vice Chairman...
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
_._
Chairman.
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member..
Member
Chairman
Member
Chairman
Member
_
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member

August 9,1946
August 9,1946
November 2, 1949...
May 10, 1950
August 9, 1946
May 10,1950
June 29,1950
September8,1952...
March 19, 1953
September 15,1953.
December t-f l&sJ'J-. -.
UCWCIIIUVI 2,1953.
April 4,1955
December 3,1956..
May 2,1955
December 3,1956..
November 1,1958..
May 7, 1959
January 29,1961...
January 2 9 , 1 9 6 1 . . .
January 29,1961...
August 3,1962
November 16,1964.
May 17,1963
September 2 1964..
November 16,1964.
Feburary 15,1968..
February 2,1966...
Februarys, 1968. _
July 1,1968

November 1,1949.

161

January 20,1953.
February 11,1953.
August 20,1952.
January 20,1953.
December 1,1956.
February 9,1955.
April 29,1955.
January 20,1961.
October 31,1958.
January 31,1959.
January 20,1961.
January 20,1961.
July 31,1962.
December 27,1962.
November 15,1964.
February 15,1968.
August 31, 1964.
February 1,1966.
January 20 1969.
June 30,1968.
January 20 1969.
January 20; 1969.

ECONOMIC POLICYMAKING AND THE COUNCIL OF
ECONOMIC ADVISERS
RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE COUNCIL

The Employment Act of 1946 describes explicitly the objectives of
economic policy as "creating and maintaining, in a manner calculated to
foster and promote free competitive enterprise and the general welfare,
conditions under which there will be afforded useful employment opportunities, including self-employment, for those able, willing, and seeking to
work, and to promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing
power." The foremost duty of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) is to
give the President advice, based on economic analysis, which will assist him
in assuring that this responsibility of the Federal Government is met.
A variety of analytical techniques is used, ranging from economic models
incorporating complex equation systems to the careful judgment and appraisal that must finally temper the answers from formal systems. Statistical
analyses of many aspects of economic conditions and stabilization policies
are a continuing part of Council work. Final output of this analysis is
reflected in personal consultations with the President and in memoranda
from the Chairman of the Council to the President and others in the
Administration.
Although the Employment Act of 1946 specifically directs the Council
"to appraise the various programs and activities of the Federal Government,"
this function of the Agency is less familiar to the general public because it
is largely internal. The Council works with other agencies to assist the
Administration in formulating proposals for new programs and policies and
in reappraising existing ones. It also recommends positions on bills proposed
in Congress. Since January 20 the Council has made formal recommendations
on 190 bills that have been either in the early stages of consideration by the
Administration or the Congress or have come to the President's desk to be
signed or vetoed. The Council brings to its appraisal the analytical methods
of economics, and it seeks to take the viewpoint of the public at large, or the
economy as a whole.
During 1969, the Council participated in formulating a number of new
Administration programs, including programs for manpower training,
transportation, social security, unemployment compensation, welfare, and
agriculture. In each case, following background analysis by the staff, the
Council's position was defined in memoranda to the President. The CEA
also played a role in drafting some proposed legislation.
Analysis by the Council and its staff also helped reexamine a number of
existing Federal Government programs, policies, and procedures. Among
these was the CEA's participation in inter agency efforts directed at such
matters as interest rate ceilings on bank deposits, minority business enter-




162

prise, international monetary reform and trade policy, meat and oil imports,
wheat exports, and a wide range of other programs and policies.
Much attention was devoted to the pressing problems in the construction
and housing sectors of the economy during 1969. The Council played an
active role in interagency groups dealing with lumber prices, housing
prospects in the seventies, and the cutback in new contracts for direct Federal construction. The Council also participated in the Cabinet Committee
on Construction appointed by the President, and the Chairman of the Cjouncil was directed by the President to serve as Chairman of this Committee.
The Chairman of the Council also chaired a committee to study policies
for handling the Government's uranium enrichment plants.
The CEA assists the President in the preparation of his Economic Report
and also prepares its own Annual Report.
POLICY COORDINATION
The Council and its staff are in daily contact with other Government
officials. There is especially close coordination among the Treasury, the
Budget Bureau, and the CEA. At least weekly the Secretary of the Treasury,
the Director of the Bureau of the Budget, and the Chairman of the Council
meet. Known as trie "Troika," this coordinating group has two other "tiers."
The second tier consists of one of the other two Council Members, the
Assistant Director of the Budget for Economic Policy, and the Assistant
Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy. A third tier, consisting of
senior staff economists from the three agencies, meets frequently to appraise
the economic situation and its policy implications. Outlook memoranda
are prepared and cleared through the second tier of the Troika for use by
the principals. The Troika meets with the President frequently. From time
to time the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System participates in these meetings also.
The new Cabinet Committee on Economic Policy, established by Executive Order of the President on January 24, 1969, serves as a major forum for
broader policy discussion and coordination. Members include the President,
the Vice President, the Secretaries of the Treasury, Agriculture, Commerce,
Labor, and Housing and Urban Development, the Counselors to the President (Mr. Burns and Mr. Moynihan), the Director of the Bureau of the
Budget, the Deputy Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, and
the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (who coordinates the
work of the Committee).
This Cabinet Committee considers the broad spectrum of economic program and policy issues. During 1969, the President appointed subcommittees to study such problems as post-Vietnam planning, agricultural trade,
economic aspects of antitrust laws, legal ceilings on interest rates, Federal
lending policies and procedures, establishment of a commission to review




163

Federal statistics, and the availability and prices of softwood lumber and
plywood.
The Cabinet Committee on Construction was established by the President on September 4, 1969, in response to the growing problems in this
industry. Its purpose is to study the impact of Federal activities on the
industry and to appraise the Nation's needs for construction and housing
and to devise ways to meet these needs. Formerly under the Cabinet Committee on Economic Policy, the interagency Task Force on Requirements
for the Housing Program became a part of this Cabinet Committee. Members of the Cabinet Committee on Construction are the Secretaries of
Commerce, Labor, Housing and Urban Development, and Transportation,
the Postmaster General, the Administrator of the General Services Administration, and the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.
The Council participates in a variety of other activities of interagency
concern. Reflecting this wider role, the Chairman of the Council serves as
a member of the Rural Affairs Council, the Urban Affairs Council, and the
National Defense Review Committee; he meets with the National Security
Council and the Environmental Quality Council when agenda items make
this relevant. The other two Council Members as well as senior staff economists also participate in the task forces and study groups designated by
these councils. The Chairman of the Council regularly attends Cabinet
meetings.
There is a particularly close association between the Council and the Joint
Economic Committee (JEC) of the Congress, a Committee which was also
created by the Employment Act of 1946 "to make a continuing study of matters relating to the Economic Report3' and generally for the purposes of
furthering the objectives of the Act. Each year, soon after the President has
submitted his Economic Report to Congress, the Council testifies before the
JEC, which itself is required by the Act to file a report to the Senate and
House by March 1 of each year, presenting its findings on the recommendations and content of the Economic Report. Testimony may also be presented
to the JEC at other times throughout the year. During 1969, the Council
testified four times before the JEC. On February 17, the Council testified on
the economic thinking of the new Administration. On April 30, the Chairman
testified before the Subcommittee on Economic Statistics of the JEC in support of the decennial census. On June 12, the Chairman testified before the
JEC's Subcommittee on Economy in Government on defense spending and
national priorities in the years ahead. And on October 23, the Council reviewed economic conditions and the outlook with the Subcommittee on
Fiscal Policy of the JEC.
Although Council testimony in the past has largely been limited to the
Joint Economic Commitee, three exceptions arose in 1969. On March 253
the Chairman testified before the Senate Committee on Banking and Cur-




164

rency with regard to interest rates and monetary policy. On May 20, the
Chairman appeared with the Secretary of the Treasury and the Director of
the Bureau of the Budget before the Committee on Ways and Means of the
House on behalf of the Administration recommendations for extending the
income tax surcharge. And on September 23, the Council testified before
the Committee on Government Operations of the House of Representatives
on a bill that sought to formalize the apparatus of wage-price guideposts.
At the international level, the Council Members and staff are active participants in meetings of the Economic Policy Commitee (EPC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Chairman of the Council heads the U.S. delegation to the EPC. This Committee
is part of the international machinery by which nations strive for better mutual understanding and coordination of their domestic economic policies. A
Member and senior staff economists also participated in the subcommittees
of the EPC on balance of payments and international financial problems
(Working Party I I I ) , and Council staff have been active in OECD studies
of the short-term outlook (Working Group on Short-Term Economic
Prospects), of long-term economic growth (Working Party I I ) , and of manpower policies pursued in the member countries (Manpower and Social Affairs Committee). In 1969, Council personnel attended seven of these international meetings.
PUBLICATIONS
The Council's Annual Report remains a major communication between
the Council and citizens generally. About 54,000 copies of the January
1969 Economic Report have been distributed. The Council also prepares
Economic Indicators, a monthly publication of the Joint Economic Committee. The current circulation of Economic Indicators is approximately
10,000.
PUBLIC CONTACTS
The Council arranged periodic meetings during the year with groups
of leading academic, business, and labor union economists, in order to keep
informed about their views on the major economic questions of the day.
There is a constant stream of visitors to the Council from outside of Government, among them business and labor leaders, students, educators, foreign
visitors, the press, and interested citizens generally. Informal interviews and
discussions are also held on a wide range of economic policy problems and
issues. Finally, to explain economic conditions and policies during the year,
Council Members made a number of public speeches and granted interviews
to newspapers and magazines.




165

ORGANIZATION AND STAFF OF THE COUNCIL
OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN
Under authority of the Employment Act, as amended by Reorganization
Plan No. 9 in 1953, the Chairman of the Council bears full responsibility
for employing the Agency's staff, and he is officially charged with reporting
the Council's views to the President.
OTHER COUNCIL MEMBERS
The day-to-day direction of the professional staff is the general responsibility of the other two Council Members. While the Council has no departments, there is an informal division of responsibilities by subject area. Mr.
Houthakker's responsibilities include economic analyses by the Council's
staff in such areas as the balance of payments and international financial
matters, trade policy, foreign aid and economic development, agriculture,
transportation, industrial organization and antitrust, labor relations, longterm economic growth, consumer affairs, natural resources, technology, and
environmental problems.
Mr. Stein's responsibilities include forecasting and analyses of economic
conditions, fiscal policy and taxation, monetary policy and financial institutions, housing and urban affairs, welfare and social security problems, education, manpower and human resources, national defense matters, and
post-Vietnam planning generally.
In addition to these responsibilities, Mr. Houthakker and Mr. Stein
represent the Council in a wide variety of official capacities, including meetings of the Cabinet Committee on Economic Policy and the Cabinet Committee on Construction. One of these two Members is always designated as
Acting Chairman when the Chairman is absent from Washington.
PROFESSIONAL STAFF
At the end of 1969, the Council's senior professional staff included 16
economists and one statistician. Assisting the Chairman in carrying out his
numerous official responsibilities is the Special Assistant to the Chairman,
Albert H. Cox, Jr. Mr. Cox also handles press relations for the Council,
acts as staff secretary for the Cabinet Committee on Economic Policy,
and performs professional duties, including work in his primary fields of
specialty (financial markets and monetary conditions).
Senior Staff Economists William H. Branson, Murray F. Foss, and Frank
C. Ripley work primarily on analyses and forecasting of economic conditions. Mr. Branson, who along with Mr. Foss represents the CEA in the
third tier of the Troika (discussed earlier), also did extensive work during
the year on the Administration's proposed welfare program and on the
review of economic aspects of the defense program. Mr. Ripley's primary
responsibility has been in the development and refinement of the Troika




166

forecasting models, the analysis of price-making forces, and other econometric studies.
Senior Staff Economist Phillip D. Cagan and Staff Economist Robert
Rene de Cotret cover monetary policy and financial institutions and the
influence of developments in this area on economic activity. Senior Staff
Economist Charles E. McLure, Jr., has been concerned with matters of fiscal
policy and public finance, including tax policy, problems of measuring the
Federal budget, cost-benefit analyses of expenditure programs, social security, and economic and budgetary aspects of Federal credit programs.
The fields of human resource development and labor market analysis
are assigned to Marvin H. Kosters and Michael H. Moskow, both Senior
Staff Economists. Mr. Kosters and Mr. Moskow are primarily concerned
with labor market conditions, manpower programs and problems, industrial relations, labor union developments, and wage trends and prospects.
Housing and construction problems, and the problems of small business
and minority business enterprise are the primary focus of Sidney L. Jones,
Senior Staff Economist. Mr. Jones also serves as the staff secretary for the
Cabinet Committee on Construction. Staff Economist Irene Lurie works
in the field of welfare and income maintenance and on other economic
aspects of poverty problems.
Three Senior Staff Economists specialize in economic analysis of particular
programs and activities of the Federal Government. During 1969, Thomas
G. Moore participated in a wide variety of interagency studies, including
those concerned with the uranium enrichment facilities of the Atomic
Energy Commission, urban mass transit, the supersonic transport, pollution
problems, domestic satellite communications, antitrust policy, airports and
airways, economics of marine resources, electric power reliability, and international aviation policy. Studies relating to oil import quotas, tariff preferences for less developed countries, and foreign aid were among those to
which Senior Staff Economist Edward J. Mitchell contributed. Senior
Staff Economist Harold O. Carter is concerned with the economics of agriculture and the many aspects of agricultural and rural development programs and policies.
Saul Nelson has been the Senior Staff Economist concerned with price
and commodity developments, and during the year he participated in various
interagency studies in these fields. In October, Mr. Nelson was given a leave
of absence to work on a project for the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Analysis of international economic problems is carried forward by G.
Paul Wonnacott and Thomas D. Willett, Senior Staff Economists. Mr.
Wonnacott has been concerned with such areas as balance of payments and
international financial developments, foreign trade policy, and problems
concerning the interrelationships of domestic economies. In addition to participating in the coverage of these areas, Mr. Willett has been engaged in the
study of longer range aspects of international financial policy.




167

Frances M. James, Senior Staff Statistician, is in charge of the Council's
Statistical Office. Miss James has major responsibility for managing the
Council's economic and statistical information system. She also supervises
the preparation of Economic Indicators for publication, the preparation of
tables and charts for a wide variety of meetings throughout the year and for
the Economic Report, and the fact-checking of memoranda, speeches, and
testimony.
Assisting the senior professional staff are four Junior Economists, Leslie
J. Barr, Paul N. Courant, Robert A. Kelly, and Rosemary D. Marcuss.
Barry M. Levenson and Timothy B. Sivia are research assistants. Assisting
Miss James in the Statistical Office are Teresa D. Bradburn, Catherine H.
Furlong, Christine L. Johnson, and V. Madge McMahon.
From time to time, leading members of the economics profession have
acted as consultants to the Council in various capacities. At the end of 1969,
the list of active consultants included Edward F. Denison (Brookings Institution), Marten S. Estey (University of Pennsylvania), Ray C. Fair (Princeton University), Milton Friedman (University of Chicago), Gottfried
Haberler (Harvard University), Arnold Harberger (University of Chicago),
David J. Ott (Clark University), George Stigler (University of Chicago),
and Lloyd Ulman (University of California).
In 1969 the Council continued its student intern program. Under this
program the Council employs a limited number of outstanding students in
economics, both graduate and undergraduate, for various periods of time,
particularly in the summer. Employed under this program in 1969 were
Henry E. Cole, W. Donald Dresser, H. Diana Hicks, Neil J. McMullen,
Paul B. Manchester, Richard C. Marston, Mary E. Procter, Daniel L.
Rubenfeld, and Earl M. Unger. Mr. Dresser, Mr. McMullen, and Miss
Procter also returned as consultants during preparation of this Annual
Report.
SUPPORTING STAFF
The Council's Administrative Officer, James H. Ayres, has responsibility
for office management, including general supervision of the secretaries and
messengers, duplicating, and the Agency's budget. Mr. Ayres, who reports
to the Special Assistant to the Chairman, is assisted by Nancy F. Skidmore,
Elizabeth A. Zea, and Bettye T. Siegel.
The secretarial staff includes Daisy S. Babione, Mayme Burnett, Mary C.
Fibich, Elizabeth F. Gray, Laura B. Hoffman, Bessie M. Lafakis, Patricia
A. Lee, Betty Lu Lowry, Eleanor A. McStay, Joyce A. Pilkerton, Dorothy L.
Reid, Earnestine Reid, and Linda A. Reilly. Margaret L. Snyder serves primarily as the Agency's contact for general public information. James W.
Gatling, Judson A. Byrd, and A. Keith Miles operate the duplicating and
messenger department.




168

In preparing its Annual Report, the Council relied upon the editorial
skills of Rosannah C. Steinhoff.
DEPARTURES
Charles B. Warden, Jr., who had served as Special Assistant to the Chairman for more than 3 years, resigned to accept a position with Data Resources,
Inc., Lexington, Mass.
The Council's professional staff is drawn primarily from universities,
largely on a 1-year basis. Many, therefore, who had served the Council during 1969 were not on the staff at the end of the year. Senior Staff Economists
who resigned during the year were Leonall C. Andersen, F. Gerard Adams,
Barry P. Bosworth, Frederick W. Deming, Marten S. Estey, Lawrence B.
Krause, James W. Kuhn, Roger G. Noll, David J. Ott, Jack Rosen, Courtenay M. Slater, Thomas T. Stout, and Luther T. Wallace. Junior economists who served the Council in 1969, but were not members of the staff at
the end of the year, were Susan R. Ackerman and Roselee N. Roberts. Research assistants Elaine R. Goldstein and Joanne C. Turner also served for
a part of the year. Secretarial resignations included Frances V. Broderick,
Anne G. Donnelly, Gladys R. Durkin, Roberta R. Kirk, Helen H. Knox,
Karen J. MacFarland, Lucille F. Saverino, and Joy T. Sindelar.
The Council of Economic Advisers suffered a great loss with the passing
of David W. Lusher, June 15, 1969. Mr. Lusher, widely known in this
country and abroad as a student of economic developments and policy,
joined the staff of the Council in March 1952.




169




Appendix C
STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME,
EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION




171




CONTENTS
National income or expenditure:
C-l. Gross national product or expenditure, 1929-69
C-2. Gross national product or expenditure, in 1958 prices, 1929-69
G-3. Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-69
C-4. Gross national product by major type of product, 1929-69
C-5. Gross national product by major type of product, in 1958 prices,
1929-69
C-6. Gross national product: Receipts and expenditures by major economic
groups, 1929-69
G-7. Gross national product by sector, 1929-69
G-8. Gross national product by sector, in 1958 prices, 1929-69
G-9. Gross national product by industry, in 1958 prices, 1947-68
G-10. Personal consumption expenditures, 1929-69
C-l 1. Gross private domestic investment, 1929-69
C-12. National income by type of income, 1929-69
C-l 3. Relation of gross national product and national income, 1929-69....
C-14. Relation of national income and personal income, 1929-69
C-15. Disposition of personal income, 1929-69
C-l6. Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures, in current and 1958 prices, 1929-69
C-l 7. Sources of personal income, 1929-69
C-18. Sources and uses of gross saving, 1929-69
C-19. Saving by individuals, 1946-69
C-20. Number and money income (in 1968 prices) of families and unrelated
individuals, by race of head, 1947-68
Population, employment, wages, and productivity:
C-21. Population by age groups: Estimates, 1929-69, and projections,
1970-85
C-22. Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-69
C-23. Civilian employment and unemployment, by sex and age, 1947-69. .
C-24. Selected unemployment rates, 1948-69
C-25. Unemployment by duration, 1947-69
C-26. Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1940-69
C-27. Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1929-69.
C-28. Average weekly hours of work in selected nonagricultural industries,
1929-69
C-29. Average gross hourly earnings in selected industries, 1929-69
C-30. Average gross weekly earnings in selected nonagricultural industries,
1929-69
C-31. Average weekly hours and hourly earnings, gross and excluding overtime, in manufacturing industries, 1939-69
C-32. Average weekly earnings, gross and spendable, total private nonagricultural industries, in current and 1957-59 prices, 1947-69. . .
C-33. Average weekly earnings, gross and spendable, in manufacturing
industries, in current and 1957-59 prices, 1939-69
C-34. Indexes of output per man-hour and related data, private economy,
1947-69

173
372-111 O—70



12

177
178
180
182
183
184
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
198
199
200

201
202
204
205
206
207
208
210
211
212
213
214
215
216

Production and business activity:
C-35. Industrial production indexes, major industry divisions, 1929-69. . . .
C-36. Industrial production indexes, market groupings, 1947-69
C-37. Industrial production indexes, selected manufactures, 1947-69. . . . .
C-38. Manufacturing output, capacity, and utilization rate, 1948-69
C-39. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1947-69
G-40. New construction activity, 1929^69
C-41. New housing starts and applications for financing, 1929-69
C-42. Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1947—69
C-43. Manufacturers' shipments and inventories, 1947-69
G-44. Manufacturers' new and unfilled orders, 1947-69
Prices:
G-45.
C-46.
C-47.
C-48.
C-49.

Consumer
Consumer
Consumer
Wholesale
Wholesale

price
price
price
price
price

indexes,
indexes,
indexes,
indexes,
indexes,

by major groups, 1929-69
by special groups, 1935-69
selected commodities and services, 1935-69.
by major commodity groups, 1929-69
by stage of processing, 1947-69

Money supply, credit, and finance:
C-50. Money supply, 1947-69
C-51. Bank loans and investments, 1930-69
C-52. Total funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors,
1961-69
C-53. Selected liquid assets held by the public, 1946-69
C-54. Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 1929-69. . .
C-55. Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-69
C-56. Short- and intermediate-term consumer credit outstanding, 1929-69.
C-57. Instalment credit extended and repaid, 1946-69
C-58. Mortgage debt outstanding, by type of property and of financing,
1939-69
C-59. Mortgage debt outstanding, by lender, 1939-69.
C-60. Net public and private debt, 1929-68
Government finance:
G-61. Federal budget receipts and outlays, 1929-71
G-62. Federal budget receipts, outlays, financing, and debt, 1960-71
C~63. Relation of the Federal Budget to the Federal sector of the national
income and -product accounts, 1968-71
G-64. Receipts and expenditures of the Federal Government sector of the national income and product accounts, 1946-71
C-65. Public debt securities by kind of obligation, 1946-69
C-66. Estimated ownership of public debt securities, 1939-69
C-67. Average length and maturity distribution of marketable interest-bearing public debt, 1946-69
C-68. Receipts and expenditures of the government sector of the national
income and product accounts, 1929-69
C-69. Receipts and expenditures of the State and local government sector
of the national income and product accounts, 1946-69
G-70. State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected fiscal
years, 1927-68




174

Page
217
218
219
220
221
222
224
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
234
236
237
238
240
241
242
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259

Corporate profits and
finance:
G-71. Profits before and after taxes, all private corporations, 1929-69
C-72. Sales, profits, and stockholders' equity, all manufacturing corporations (except newspapers), 1947-69
C-73. Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, all
manufacturing corporations (except newspapers), by industry group,
1948-69
C-74. Sources and uses of funds, nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business,
1958-68
C-75. Current assets and liabilities of United States corporations, 1939-69.
C-76. State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-69
C-77. Common stock prices, earnings, and yields, and stock market credit,
1939-69
C-78. Business formation and business failures, 1929-69
Agriculture:
C-79. Income from agriculture, 1929-69
C-80. Farm production indexes, 1929-69
C-81. Farm population, employment, and productivity, 1929-69
C-82. Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, and parity ratio,
1929-69
C-83. Selected measures of farm resources and inputs, 1929-69
C-84. Comparative balance sheet of agriculture, 1929-70

Page
260
261

262
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
274
275

International statistics:
C-85. United States balance of payments, 1946-69
C-86. United States merchandise exports and imports, by commodity groups,
1958-69
C-87. United States merchandise exports and imports, by area, 1963-69. .
C-88. United States overseas loans and grants, by type and area, fiscal years,
1962-69
C-89. International reserves, 1949, 1953, and 1964-69
C-90. United States reserve assets: Gold stock, holdings of convertible foreign
currencies, and reserve position in the International Monetary
Fund, 1946-69
C-91. Price changes in international trade, 1961-69
C-92. Consumer price indexes in the United States and other major industrial countries, 1957-69

General Notes
Detail in these tables will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current prices.
Symbols used:
» Preliminary.
__ Not available (also, not applicable).
* Amount insignificant in terms of the particular unit (e.g., less than
$50 million where unit is billions of dollars).




175

276
278
279
280
281

282
283
284




NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE
TABLE C-l.—Gross national product or expenditure, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars]

Year or quarter

Total
gross
national
product

Government purchases of goods and services*

Personal
consumption
expenditures^

Gross
private
domestic
investment2

exports
of goods
and
services 3

Net

Federal
Total
Total

National
defense5

Other

State
and
local

1929...
1930...
1931 —
1932...
1933—
1934...
1935...
1936—
1937...
1938...
1939...

103.1

77.2

16.2

1.1

8.5

1.3

1.3

7.2

90.4
75.8
58.0
55.6
65.1
72.2
82.5
90.4
84.7
90.5

69.9
60.5
48.6
45.8
51.3
55.7
61.9
66.5
63.9
66.8

10.3
5.6
1.0
1.4
3.3
6.4
8.5
11.8
6.5
9.3

1.0
.5
.4
.4
.6
.1
.1
.3
1.3
1.1

9.2
9.2
8.1
8.0
9.8
10.0
12.0
11.9
13.0
13.3

1.4
1.5
1.5
2.0
3.0
2.9
4.9
4.7
5.4
5.1

1.4
1.5
1.5
2.0
3.0
2.9
4.9
4.7
5.4
1.2

3.9

7.8
7.7
6.6
6.0
6.8
7.1
7.0
7.2
7.6
8.2

1940...
1941...
1942...
1943...
1944...
1945...
1946—
1947...
1948...
1949...

99.7
124.5
157.9
191.6
210.1
211.9
208.5
231.3
257.6
256.5

70.8
80.6
88.5
99.3
108.3
119.7
143.4
160.7
173.6
176.8

13.1
17.9
9.8
5.7
7.1
10.6
30.6
34.0
46.0
35.7

1.7
1.3
-2.0
-1.8
-.6
7.5
11.5
6.4
6.1

14.0
24.8
59.6
88.6
96.5
82.3
27.0
25.1
31.6
37.8

6.0
16.9
51.9
81.1
89.0
74.2
17.2
12.5
16.5
20.1

2.2
13.8
49.4
79.7
87.4
73.5
14.7
9.1
10.7
13.3

3.8
3.1
2.5
1.4
1.6
.7
2.5
3.5
5.8
6.8

8.0
7.9
7.7
7.4
7.5
8.1
9.8
12.6
15.0
17.7

1950..
1951-.
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..

'28478;
328.4
345.5
364.6
364.8
398.0
419.2
441.1
447.3
483.7

191.0
206.3
216.7
230.0
236.5
254.4
266.7
281.4
290.1
311.2

54.1
59.3
51.9
52.6
51.7
67.4
70.0
67.8
60.9
75.3

1.8
3.7
2.2
.4
1.8
2.0
4.0
5.7
2.2
.1

37.9
59.1
74.7
81.6
74.8
74.2
78.6
86.1
94.2
97.0

18.4
37.7
51.8
57.0
47.4
44.1
45.6
49.5
53.6
53.7

14.1
33.6
45.9
48.7
41.2
38.6
40.3
44.2
45.9
46.0

4.3
4.1
5.9
8.4
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.3
7.7
7.6

19.5
21.5
22.9
24.6
27.4
30.1
33.0
36.6
40.6
43.3

I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969 v.

503.7
520.1
560.3
590.5
632.4
684.9
749.9
793.5
865.7
932.3

325.2
335.2
355.1
375.0
401.2
432.8
466.3
492.3
536.6
576.0

74.8
71.7
83.0
87.1
94.0
108.1
121.4
116.0
126.3
139.6

4.0
5.6
5.1
5.9
8.5
6.9
5.3
5.2
2.5
2.1

99.6
107.6
117.1
122.5
128.7
137.0
156.8
180.1
200.3
214.7

53.5
57.4
63.4
64.2
65.2
66.9
77.8
90.7
99.5
102.0

44.9
47.8
51.6
50.8
50.0
50.1
60.7
72.4
78.0
79.3

8.6
9.6
11.8
13.5
15.2
16.8
17.1
18.4
21.5
22.8

46.1
50.2
53.7
58.2
63.5
70.1
79.0
89.3
100.7
112.7

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967: L II.
111
IV.

774.2
783.5
800.4
816.1

480.9
489.8
495.7
502.6

113.6
109.4
117.7
123.3

5.4
5.8
5.6
3.8

174.2
178.5
181.3
186.4

87.8
90.3
91.3
93.5

69.9
71.9
73.0
74.6

17.9
18.4
18.4
18.9

86.4
88.1
90.0
92.9

1968: I . .
II.
III
IV.

835.3
858.7
876.4
892.5

520.6
530.3
544.9
550.7

119.4
126.6
125.2
133.9

1.9
3.4
3.6
1.2

193.4
198.4
202.5
206.7

96.3
99.0
100.9
101.9

76.1
77.9
78.8
79.3

20.1
21.1
22.1
22.5

97.1
99.4
101.7
104.8

1969: L
II.
III
IV

908.7
924.8
942.8
953.1

562.0
572.8
579.8
589.2

135.2
137.4
143.3
142.4

1.5
1.6
2.7
2.6

210.0
212.9
217.0
218.9

101.6
100.6
103.2
102.7

79.0
78.5
80.3
79.2

22.6
22.1
22.9
23.5

108.5
112.3
113.8
116.2

1

See Table C-10 for detailed components,
a See Table C - l l for detailed components.
* See Table C-6 for exports and imports separately.
< Net of Government sales.
* This category corresponds closely to the national defense classification in the "Budget of the United States Government for the Fiscal Year ending June 30,1971."
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




177

TABLE C-2.—Gross national product or expenditure, in 1958 prices, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars, 1958 prices]
Personal consumption
expenditures

Year or
quarter

Total
gross
national
product

Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Nonresidential
Serv- Total
ices
Total

Change
in busi-

Total

oiructures

Producers'
durable
equipment

Cfriif.

Residential
structures

nessinventories

1929...

203.6

139.6

16.3

69.3

54.0

40.4

36.9

26.5

13.9

12.6

10.4

3.5

1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..
1935..
1936..
1937..
1938..
1939..

183.5
169.3
144.2
141.5
154.3
169.5
193.0
203.2
192.9
209.4

130.4
126.1
114.8
112.8
118.1
125.5
138.4
143.1
140.2
148.2

12.9
11.2
8.4
8.3
9.4
11.7
14.5
15.1
12.2
14.5

65.9
65.6
60.4
58.6
62.5
65.9
73.4
76.0
77.1
81.2

51.5
49.4
45.9
46.0
46.1
47.9
50.5
52.0
50.9
52.5

27.4
16.8
4.7
5.3
9.4
18.0
24.0
29.9
17.0
24.7

28.0
19.2
10.9
9.7
12.1
15.6
20.9
24.5
19.4
23.5

21.7
14.1
8.2
7.6
9.2
11.5
15.8
18.8
13.7
15.3

11.8
7.5
4.4
3.3
3.6
4.0
5.4
7.1
5.6
5.9

9.9
6.6
3.8
4.3
5.6
7.5
10.3
11.8
8.1
9.4

6.3
5.1
2.7
2.1
2.9
4.0
5.1
5.6
5.7
8.2

— 6

-2 A
-6.2
-4.3
-2.7
2.4
3.1
5.5
-2.4
1.2

1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..

227.2
263.7
297.8
337.1
361.3
355.2
312.6
309.9
323.7
324.1

155.7
165.4
161.4
165.8
171.4
183.0
203.5
206.3
210.8
216.5

16.7
19.1
11.7
10.2
9.4
10.6
20.5
24.7
26.3
28.4

84.6
89.9
91.3
93.7
97.3
104.7
110.8
108.3
108.7
110.5

54.4
56.3
58.5
61.8
64.7
67.7
72.1
73.4
75.8
77.6

33.0
41.6
21.4
12.7
14.0
19.6
52.3
51.5
60.4
48.0

28.1
32.0
17.3
12.9
15.9
22.6
42.3
51.7
55.9
51.9

18.9
22.2
12.5
10.0
13.4
19.8
30.2
36.2
38.0
34.5

6.8
8.1
4.6
2.9
3.8
5.7
12.5
11.6
12.3
11.9

12.1
14.2
7.9
7.2
9.6
14.1
17.7
24.6
25.7
22.6

9.2
9.8
4.9
2.9
2.5
2.8
12.1
15.4
17.9
17.4

4.9
9.6
4.0
-.2
-1.9
-2.9
10.0
-.2
4.6
-3.9

1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..

355.3
383.4
395.1
412.8
407.0
438.0
446.1
452.5
447.3
475.9

230.5
232.8
239.4
250.8
255.7
274.2
281.4
288.2
290.1
307.3

34.7
31.5
30.8
35.3
35.4
43.2
41.0
41.5
37.9
43.7

114.0
116.5
120.8
124.4
125.5
131.7
136.2
138.7
140.2
146.8

81.8
84.8
87.8
91.1
94.8
99.3
104.1
108.0
112.0
116.8

69.3
70.0
60.5
61.2
59.4
75.4
74.3
68.8
60.9
73.6

61.0
59.0
57.2
60.2
61.4
69.0
69.5
67.6
62.4
68.8

37.5
39.6
38.3
40.7
39.6
43.9
47.3
47.4
41.6
44.1

12.7
14.1
13.7
14.9
15.2
16.2
18.5
18.2
16.6
16.2

24.8
25.5
24.6
25.8
24.5
27.7
28.8
29.1
25.0
27.9

'ftf

18.9
19.6
21.7
25.1
22.2
20.2
20.8
24.7

8.3
10.9
3.3
.9
-2.0
6.4
4.8
1.2
-1.5
4.8

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 v

487.7
497.2
529.8
551.0
581.1
617.8
658.1
674.6
707.6
727.7

316.1
322.5
338.4
353.3
373.7
397.7
418.1
430.3
452.6
466.0

44.9
43.9
49.2
53.7
59.0
66.6
71.7
72.8
80.7
84.8

149.6
153.0
158.2
162.2
170.3
178.6
187.0
190.3
196.9
199.5

121.6
125.6
131.1
137.4
144.4
152.5
159.4
167.2
175.0
181.7

72.4 68.9
69.0 67.0
79.4 73.4
82.5 76.7
87.8 81.9
99.2 90.1
109.3 95.4
100.8 93.9
105.7 99.1
111.9 104.9

47.1
45.5
49.7
51.9
57.8
66.3
74.1
73.6
75.8
81.5

17.4
17.4
17.9
17.9
19.1
22.3
24.0
22.6
22.7
24.0

29.6
28.1
31.7
34.0
38.7
44.0
50.1
51.0
53.2
57.5

21.9
21.6
23.8
24.8
24.2
23.8
21.3
20.3
23.3
23.5

3.5
2.0
6.0
5.8
5.8
9.0
13.9
6.9
6.6
6.9

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

92.0
92.6
94.3
96.7

74.1
73.5
73.1
73.8

23.8
22.1
22.3
22.1

50.3
51.4
50.8
51.6

17.9
19.0
21.2
23.0

8.5
3.1
7.4
8.7

171.8
173.7
176.5
177.7

101.2 99.8
106.6 97.6
104.1 97.7
110.9 101.4

77.1
74.0
75.0
77.3

23.6
22.0
22.2
22.9

53.5
52.0
52.7
54.4

22.7
23.5
22.7
24.1

1.5
9.0
6.4
9.6

179.3
181.0
182.5
184.1

109.9
110.8
114.3
112.6

104.0
104.8
105.0
106.0

79.4
81.0
82.4
83.2

23.9
23.3
24.6
24.2

55.5
57.7
57.8
59.0

24.6
23.8
22.6
22.8

5.9
6.0
9.3
6.7

1967: !____
II . .
III..
I

666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5

424.4
430.5
431.9
434.3

70.3
73.9
73.0
73.9

190.2
190.6
190.3
190.2

163.9 100.5
166.1 95.7
168.6 101.6
170.3 105.4

1968: L___
II...
Ill
IV...

693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5

445.6
449.0
458.2
457.6

77.7
79.5
83.0
82.7

196.0
195.8
198.7
197.2

1969: I.
II...
Ill
IV*.

723.1
726.7
730.6
730.5

462.9
466.2
466.5
468.5

84.3
85.9
84.7
84.1

199.3
199.3
199.3
200.2

See footnotes at end of table.




178

TABLE C-2.-—Gross national product or expenditure, in 1958 prices,

1929-69—Continued

[Billions of dollars, 1958 prices]
Net exports of goods and services

Government purchasesl of goods and
services

Year or quarter
Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Total

Federal

State and
local

1929..

1.5

11.8

10.3

22.0

3.5

18.5

1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..
1935..
1936..
1937..
1938..
1939..

1.4
.9
.6
.0
-L0
-1.2
-.7
1.9
1.3

10.4
8.9
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.7
8.2
9.8
9.9
10.0

9.0
7.9
6.6
7.1
7.1
8.7
9.3
10.5
8.0
8.7

24.3
25.4
24.2
23.3
26.6
27.0
31.8
30.8
33.9
35.2

4.0
4.3
4.6
6.0
8.0
7.9
12.2
11.5
13.3
12.5

20.2
21.1
19.6
17.3
18.6
19.2
19.6
19.4
20.6
22.7

1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..

2.1
.4
-2.1
-5.9
-5.8
-3.8
8.4
12.3
6.1
6.4

11.0
11.2
7.8
6.8
7.6
10.2
19.6
22.6
18.1
18.1

8.9
10.8
9.9
12.6
13.4
13.9
11.2
10.3
12.0
11.7

36.4
56.3
117.1
164.4
181.7
156.4
48.4
39.9
46.3
53.3

15.0
36.2
98.9
147.8
165.4
139.7
30.1
19.1
23.7
27.6

21.4
20.1
18.3
16.6
16.3
16.7
18.4
20.8
22.7
25.7

1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..

2.7
5.3
3.0
1.1
3.0
3.2
5.0
6.2
2.2

16.3
19.3
18.2
17.8
18.8
20.9
24.2
26.2
23.1
23.8

13.6
14.1
15.2
16.7
15.8
17.7
19.1
19.9
20.9
23.5

52.8
75.4
92.1
99.8
88.9
85.2
85.3
89.3
94.2
94.7

25.3
47.4
63.8
70.0
56.8
50.7
49.7
51.7
53.6
52.5

27.5
27.9
28.4
29.7
32.1
34.4
35.6
37.6
40.6
42.2

I960....
1961
1962
1963
1964...
1965...
1966—
1967...
1968...
1969 P .

4.3
5.1
4.5
5.6
8.3
6.2
4.2
3.6
.9
.0

27.3
28.0
30.0
32.1
36.5
37.4
40.2
42.1
45.6
48.4

23.0
22.9
25.5
26.6
28.2
31.2
36.1
38.5
44.7
48.4

94.9
100.5
107.5
109.6
111.2
114.7
126.5
140.0
148.4
149.8

51.4
54.6
60.0
59.5
58.1
57.9
65.4
74.8
78.9
76.1

43.5
45.9
47.5
50.1
53.2
56.8
61.1
65.2
69.5
73.7

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
4.0
4.2
4.1
2.0

41.8
41.9
42.2
42.5

37.8
37.8
38.1
40.5

137.6
140.1
140.4
141.7

72.8
75.1
75.5
75.7

64.8
65.0
64.9
66.0

1968: I .

.9
1.3
1.7
-.2

43.9
45.2
48.0
45.5

43.0
43.9
46.3
45.7

145.6
148.9
148.8
150.2

77.3
79.6
79.2
79.4

68.3
69.3
69.6
70.8

1969: I

-.3
-.5
.4
.3

41.9
50.4
50.2
51.3

42.2
50.8
49.8
50.9

150.6
150.2
149.4
149.0

78.3
76.3
75.5
74.4

72.3
73.9
73.9
74.7

1967: I
II..
III.
IV..

11..
III.
IV.

III
IV

i Net of Government sales.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




179

TABLE G-3.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-69
[Index numbers, 1958=100]
Gross private domestic investment *

Personal consumption
expenditures

Fixed investment

Total
gross
national

Year or quarter

Nonresidential

ucH
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Services

Total
Total

Structures

ResiProdential
ducers' strucdurable tures
equipment

1929

50.6

55.3

56.4

54.5

56.1

39.4

39.9

35.7

44.6

38.1

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

49.3
44.8
40.2
39.3
42.2
42.6
42.7
44.5
43.9
43.2

53.6
47.9
42.3
40.6
43.5
44.4
44 7
46.5
45.6
45.1

55.3
49.1
43.2
41.9
44.7
43.7
43.6
45.8
46.7
46.0

51.6
44.1
37.7
38.0
42.7
44.5
44 8
46.4
44.0
43.2

55.7
52.7
48.3
43.6
44.3
44.4
45.0
46.8
47.7
47.7

37.9
35?2
31.6
30.6
33.7
34.3
34.6
37.8
38.2
37.7

38.1
35.8
32.9
31.6
34.9
35.9
35.6
38.8
39.3
38.7

34.0
31.1
27.6
27.9
28.9
30.6
30.2
34.4
33.9
33.1

43.0
41.1
39.1
34.5
38.8
38.7
38.5
41.4
43.0
42.2

37.1
33.6
27.3
27.1
30.1
29.8
31 3
34.3
35.5
35.7

43.9
47.2
53.0
56.8
58.2
59.7
66.7
74.6
79.6
79.1

45.5
48.7
54 8
59.9
63.2
65.4
70 5
77.9
82 3
81.7

46.5
50.4
59 3
64.2
71.5
75.9
76 8
82.7
86 3
86.8

43.8
47.7
55 6
62.5
66.2
68.7
74 3
83.6
88 5
85.6

47.9
49.8
52.7
55.3
57.5
58.7
62.7
67.9
72.1
74.3

39.0
42.0
46.5
49.3
51.1
51'. 5
58.5
66.7
73.9
74.7

40.0
42.7
47.8
49.9
51.0
51.0
56.3
64.5
70.7
72.8

33.9
36.4
41.3
46.8
48.6
49.2
54.4
64.4
71.5
71.2

43.4
46.3
51.5
51.1
51.9
51.7
57.5
64.6
70.3
73.6

36.9
40.3
43 3
47.0
51.6
54.9
59.7
71.7
80 8
78.5

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

80.2
85.6
87.5
88.3
89.6
90 9
94.0
97.5
100.0
101.6

82 9
88.6
90.5
91 7
92.5
92 8
94 8
97 7
100.0
101.3

87 8
94.2
95.4
94 3
92.9
91 9
94 9
98 4
100.0
101.4

86 0
93.3
94.3
93 9
94.2
93 6
94 9
97 7
100.0
99.9

76.3
80.0
83.6
87.7
90.0
92.0
94.6
97.3
100.0
103.0

77.5
83.1
85.3
86.6
86.8
89 0
94.0
98.5
100.0
102.6

74.4
80.4
82.6
84.0
84.8
86.7
92.4
97.9
100.0
102.2

72.9
79.3
83.2
84.9
86.0
88.1
93.4
98.6
100.0
102.7

75.2
80.9
82.2
83.5
84.0
85.9
91.8
97.5
100.0
102.0

82 5
88.6
90.8
91 9
90.4
92.9
97.4
99.8
100.0
103.1

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 v

103.3
104 6
105.8
107.2
108.8
110.9
113.9
117.6
122.3
128.1

102.9
103 9
104.9
106.1
107.4
108.8
111.5
114.4
118.6
123.6

100.9
100 6
100.8
100.4
100.4
99.6
98.7
100.3
103.3
105.7

101.2
101 9
102.8
104.0
104.9
106.9
110.7
113.0
117.1
122.2

105.8
107 6
109.0
110.9
113.1
115.1
118.3
122.1
127.3
133.5

103.4
103.9
104.9
106.0
107.6
109.3
111.8
115.7
120.0
125.3

102.9
103.4
104.1
104.5
105.7
107.5
110.2
113.7
117.1
121.9

104.0
105.6
107.1
108.9
111.1
114.7
118.9
123.6
129.3
139.1

102.2
102.1
102.3
102.3
103.0
103.9
106.0
109.2
111.9
114.7

104.5
105.0
106.7
108.9
112.3
114.2
117.4
123.1
129.7
137.4

1967: 1
II
III
IV

116.2
116.9
118.1
119.4

113.3
113.8
114.8
115 7

99.6
99.5
100.5
101.7

112.1
112.5
113.4
114.0

120.6
121.5
122.5
123.7

113.8
114.6
116.6
117.7

112.4
112.9
114.2
115.2

121.8
122.8
124.6
125.5

107.9
108.6
109.7
110.8

119.7
121.4
124.8
125.6

1968: 1
II
III
IV

120.5
121.7
122.9
124.2

116.8
118.1
118.9
120.4

102.3
102.9
103.4
104.5

115.3
116.7
117.5
118.8

125.2
126.6
127.9
129.5

118.0
119.6
120.8
121.7

115.7
116.7
117.6
118.4

126.5
128.7
130.6
131.4

110.9
111.6
112.1
113.0

126.0
128.7
131.5
132.4

1969: 1
II .
Ill
IV p

125.7
127.3
129.0
130.5

121.4
122.9
124.3
125.8

104.9
105.5
106.0
106.6

119.8
121.5
123.0
124.6

131.0
132.7
134.2
135.9

123.7
124.5
126.2
127.0

120.1
120.8
122.7
123.8

135.3
137.8
141.0
142.2

113.5
113.9
114.9
116.3

135.3
137.1
138.8
138.5

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

-

-

-.

See footnotes at end of table.




180

TABLE C-3.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product,

1929-69—Continued

[Index numbers, 1958=100]
Exports and imports 1
of
goods and services

Government purchases of goods
and services

Gross national product by
sector

Year or quarter

Exports

Imports

Total

Federal

State and
local

Private 2

General
government

1929

59.5

57.3

38.6

36.0

39.1

51.7

34.1

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

52 3
41.0
34.7
33.7
40 6
42.3
43.4
46.5
43 8
44.1

49 0
39.3
31.5
28.8
33.6
36.0
36.7
40.7
37.9
38.6

37 9
36.3
33.4
34.5
36 8
37.0
37.6
38.4
38 3
37.9

34 1
34.5
31.9
33.1
37.4
37.0
40.5
40.7
40 5
40.8

38 7
36.6
33.8
35.0
36 6
37.0
35.9
37.1
36 8
36.3

50.4
45.7
40.9
39.9
43.0
43.5
43.4
45.3
44.6
43.9

34.1
34.5
33.7
33.5
34.8
34.7
36.5
36.5
37.4
36.8

48.6
53.0
61.5
65 2
69 9
71.3
75.4
87.3
92 7
87.0

40.8
43.0
48.3
51.2
53.2
56.4
64.9
79.4
86.4
82.2

38 5
44.0
50.9
53 9
53.1
52.6
55.8
62.9
68 1
71.0

40.2
46.6
52.5
54 9
53.8
53.1
57.3
65.6
69.8
73.0

37.3
39.2
42.3
44 6
46.1
48.6
53.2
60.4
66.4
68.9

44.7
48.7
55.5
60.9
62.0
62.6
68.2
76.3
81.4
80.6

36.0
34.7
37.3
39.7
43.3
48.3
55.4
58.5
60.8
64.7

84.9
97.0
98.8
95 2
94.3
94.9
97 5
101.3
100 0
98.8

88.7
107.2
103.6
99.1
100.8
100.6
102.5
104.0
100.0
99.3

71.8
78.5
81.0
81.8
84.1
87.1
92.1
96.4
100.0
102.4

72.9
79.4
81.2
81.4
83.5
86.9
91.7
95.8
100.0
102.2

70.8
76.9
80.6
82.8
85.3
87.5
92.7
97.3
100.0
102.6

81.4
87.4
89.0
89.6
90.8
91.6
94.5
97.9
100.0
101.4

67.1
70.5
74.4
76.6
79.5
84.0
88.7
93.3
100.0
104.2

99.9
101.9
100 8
100.6
101.5
104.7
107.7
109.7
110.9
114.4

101.0
100.1
98 5
99.5
101.5
103.4
105.6
106.5
107.6
110.0

105.0
107.1
109.0
111.8
115.7
119.4
124.0
128.7
135.0
143.3

104.2
105.2
105.6
108.0
112.2
115.5
118.8
121.3
126.2
134.1

105.9
109.4
113.2
116.3
119.5
123.5
129.4
137.1
145.0
152.9

102.8
103.7
104.7
105.8
107.0
108.8
111.6
114.8
118.9
124.2

108.6
113.6
116.6
121.5
128.4
133.5
140.3
148.1
159.4
170.6

109.7
109.6
109.7
109.8

106.9
106.3
106.8
105.9

126.6
127.4
129.2
131.5

120.5
120.3
121.0
123.5

133.4
135.6
138.7
140.7

113.5
114.1
115.2
116.3

144.5
146.5
148.4
153.1

.

108.9
112.1
111.3
111.3

106.7
107.8
107.5
108.2

132.8
133.3
136.2
137.6

124.5
124.5
127.4
128.3

142.3
143.4
146.2
148.1

117.2
118.4
119.4
120.6

155.7
156. S
161.3
163.6

IV p . .

113.5
113.4
115.2
115.2

109.2
109.2
110.8
110.8

139.5
141.8
145.3
146.9

129.8
131.9
136.8
138.1

150.1
151.9
153.9
155.6

122.0
123.6
125.0
126.4

165.6
167.5
173.7
175.3

. .

.

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

.

.

.

.

1960
1961.
1962
1963
1964.
1965
1966
1967
1968...
1969 v
1967: 1
II....
Ill
IV....

...
...

1968: 1

II

III
IV.

1969: 1.
II

III
...

1 Separate deflators are not available for total gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, and
net exports of goods and services.
2 Gross national product less compensation of general government employees. See also Tables C-7 and C-8.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




TABLE C-4.—Gross national product by major type of product, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars]

Goods output

Year or
quarter

Total
gross
national
product

Total

Final
sales

Nondurable g

Durable goods

Final
Total sales

° =?
C CO

fj-5

Final
Total sales

II
|1

Final
Total sales

II

Gross
Serv- Struc- auto
tures prodices
uct

C TO

1929....

103.1

101.4

1.7

56.1

54.3

1.7

17.5

16.1

1.4

38.5

38.2

0.3

35.6

11.4

1930
1931....
1932....
1933
1934
1935....
1936
1937
1938....
1939

90.4
75.8
58.0
55.6
65.1
72.2
82.5
90.4
84.7
90.5

90.7
77.0
60.5
57.2
65.8
71.2
81.2
87.9
85.6
90.1

-.4
-1.1
-2.5
-1.6
-.7
1.1
1.3
2.5
-.9
.4

46.9
37.4
26.7
27.0
34.4
39.9
45.8
51.5
45.3
49.0

47.3
38.6
29.2
28.6
35.1
38.8
44.5
48.9
46.2
48.6

-.4
-1.1
-2.5
-1.6
-.7
1.1
1.3
2.5
-.9
.4

11.4
7.7
3.6
4.9
7.4
9.3
12.2
13.9
9.9
12.7

12.5 - 1 . 0
9.0 - 1 . 2
5.7 - 2 . 0
5.4 - . 5
7.3
.1
8.9
.3
11.2
.9
13.1
.8
10.8 - . 9
12.4
.3

35.5
29.7
23.1
22.1
27.0
30.6
33.6
37.6
35.4
36.3

.7
34.8
.1
29.6
23.6 - . 4
23.2 -1.1
27.8 - . 9
.7
29.9
.3
33.3
35.8 1.8
.0
35.4
.1
36.2

34.2
31.7
27.5
25.7
27.1
28.3
31.0
32.3
33.2
34.0

9.2
6.7
3.8
2.9
3.5
4.0
5.6
6.7
6.2
7.5

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946....
1947
1948
1949

99.7
124.5
157.9
191.6
210.1
211.9
208.5
231.3
257.6
256.5

97.5 2.2
120.1 4.5
156.2 1.8
192.2 - . 6
211.1 - 1 . 0
213.0 - 1 . 0
202.1 6.4
231.8 - . 5
252.9 4.7
259.6 - 3 . 1

56.0
72.5
93.6
120.4
132.3
128.9
124.9
139.7
154.2
147.5

53.8 2.2
68.0 4.5
91.9 1.8
12K0 - . 6
133.3 - 1 . 0
129.9 - 1 . 0
118.5 6.4
140.1 - . 5
149.4 4.7
150.5 - 3 . 1

16.6
26.8
35.5
54.2
57.9
48.9
36.9
46.0
48.7
47.8

15.4 1.2 39.3 38.4
23.8 3.0 45.6 44.2
34.5 1.0 58.1 57.4
.0 66.2 66.8
54.2
58.5 - . 6 74.4 74.8
50.2 - 1 . 3 80.0 79.7
31.6 5.3 88.0 86.9
44.3 1.7 93.7 95.9
.7 105.5 101.5
48.0
49.9 - 2 . 1 99.7 100.6

35.4
40.3
50.3
62.5
71.8
76.5
68.0
70.2
75.7
80.8

8.3
11.8
14.0
8.7
6.1
6.5
15.6
21.4
27.7
28.3

7.2
8.8
11.9

1950
1951
1952

1953
1954....
1955
1956
1957
1958....
1959

284.8
328.4
345.5
364.6
364.8
398.0
419.2
441.1
447.3
483.7

278.0 6.8
318.1 10.3
342.4 3.1
.4
364.1
366.4 - 1 . 5
392.0 6.0
414.5 4.7
439.8 1.3
448.8 - 1 . 5
478.9 4.8

162.4
189.7
195.6
204.1
197.1
216.4
225.4
234.6
230.8
249.1

155.6 6.8
179.4 10.3
192.5 3.1
.4
203.7
198.6 - 1 . 5
210.4 6.0
220.7 4.7
233.3 1.3
232.3 - 1 . 5
244.4 4.8

60.4
73.7
74.6
79.4
72.1
85.7
90.3
94.4
83.6
95.6

56.3 4.1 102.0 99.3 2.7 87.0
66.8 6.9 116.0 112.6 3.4 101.2
73.5 1.1 121.0 119.1 2.0 110.8
.9 124.8 125.2 - . 5 118.8
78.5
74.6 - 2 . 5 125.0 124.1 1.0 123.5
82.7 3.0 130.7 127.7 2.9 132.6
87.5 2.8 135.1 133.2 1.9 142.3
.0 154.2
93.1 1.3 140.2 140.2
86.4 - 2 . 8 147.2 145.9 1.3 163.4
2.4 176.2
93.2 2.3 153.6 151.1

35.4
37.5
39.1
41.7
44.2
49.0
51.5
52.3
53.1
58.3

15.4
13.5
12.0
16.3
14.6
21.2
16.9
19.5
14.5
19.1

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966...
1967
1968....
1969 p . .

503.7
520.1
560.3
590.5
632.4
684.9
749.9
793.5
865.7
932.3

500.2 3.6 259.6 256.0 3.6 99.5 97.4 2.1 160.1 158.6
518.1 2.0 262.3 260.2 2.0 96.5 96.6 - . 1 165.8 163.7
554.3 6.0 284.5 278.5 6.0 109.0 106.2 2.8 175.5 172.2
584.6 5.9 298.6 292.7 5.9 116.1 113.3 2.8 182.5 179.4
626.6 5.8 319.4 313.6 5.8 127.0 122.8 4.2 192.4 190.7
675.3 9.6 347.2 337.6 9.6 139.6 133.0 6.7 207.6 204.7
735.1 14.8 383.3 368.5 14.8 156.7 146.2 10.5 226.6 222.3
786.2 7.4 398.4 391.0 7.4 160.9 157.0 3.9 237.5 234.1
858.4 7.3 431.1 423.7 7.3 176.7 171.4 5.3 254.4 252.3
924.3 8.0 459.9 451.8 8.0 192.3 186.1 6.2 267.5 265.7

1.0
1.4
.7
-.6
-.3
l!l
-2.2
4.0
-1.0

1.5
2.1
3.2
3.1
1.6
3.0
4.3
3.5
2.0
1.8

187.3
199.5
213.3
226.2
244.2
262.9
289.1
316.7
347. 5
377.5

56.8
58.3
62.6
65.7
68.8
74.8
77.5
78.4
87.1
95.0

21.4
17.9
22.5
25.1
25.8
31.8
30.0
28.6
35.9
36.5

4.7
1.8
3.4
3.9

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967: I . . .
II
III..
IV..

774.2
783.5
800.4
816.1

765.2
780.2
792.6
806.6

9.0
3.4
7.8
9.5

391.5
395.9
401.1
405.3

382.5
392.5
393.3
395.8

9.0
3.4
7.8
9.5

156.1
159.9
162.2
165.5

151.9
158.3
157.7
160.0

4.2
1.5
4.4
5.6

235.4
236.0
238.9
239.8

230.7
234.2
235.5
235.9

306.4
312.0
320.1
328.4

76.3
75.6
79.3
82.4

26.1
28.8
28.7
30.9

1968: I . . .
II.
III..
IV..

835.3
858.7
876.4
892.5

833.6 1.6
848.8 9.9
869.2 7.2
882.0 10.5

414.5
429.2
437.0
443.5

412.8 1.6
419.3 9.9
429.9 7.2
433.0 10.5

168.3
175.7
178.8
184.0

166.4
168.9
173.7
176.6

1.9
6.8
5.1
7.4

246.2
253.5
258.3
259.5

246.5 - . 3 335.0
250.4 3.1 343.4
256.1 2.1 353.2
256.4 3.1 358.5

85.8
86.0
86.1
90.6

34.0
36.3
36.0
37.5

1969: I
II..
III.
IV v

908.7
924.8
942.8
953.1

902.1 6.6 447.9
917.9 6.9 456.5
932.0 10.7 465.9
945.3 7.8 469.0

441.3 6.6 186.4
449.6 6.9 190.3
455.2 10.7 195.4
461.2 7.8 197.1

181.6
185.5
187.8
189.7

4.8
4.9
7.6
7.4

261.5
266.2
270.5
271.9

259.7
264.1
267.4
271.5

94.9
94.8
95.3
95.1

37.5
34.5
38.0
35.9

Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




l82

1.8
2.1
3.1
.4

365.8
373.4
381.6
389.0

TABLE G-5.—Gross national product by major type o] product, in 1958 prices, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars, 1958 prices]
Goods output

Year or
quarter

Total
gross
national
product

Durable goods

Total

Nondurable g
Serv- Strucices tures

Final

ll

Final
Total sales

Final
Total sales

> o

F

Final
Total sales

Gross
auto
product

3.5

33.6

30.9

2.7

70.4

69.5

0.8

69.3

30.3

90.5 91.1 - . 6
83.2 85.7 - 2 . 4
68.7 74.9 - 6 . 2
68.8 73.2 - 4 . 3
77.9 80.5 - 2 . 7
88.6 86.2 2.4
102.2 99.1 3.1
110.2 104.8 5.5
100.5 102.9 - 2 . 4
110.7 109.5 1.2

22.4
16.3
8.3
11.7
16.9
21.5
28.7
31.0
21.1
27.6

24.5 - 2 . 1
19.2 - 3 . 0
13.4 - 5 . 1
13.4 - 1 . 7
16.7
.2
20.6
.9
26.3 2.4
29.1 1.9
23.4 - 2 . 3
27.0
.6

68.0
67.0
60.4
57.1
61.0
67.1
73.5
79.2
79.4
83.0

66.5 1.5
.5
66 5
61.5 -1.1
59.8 -2.7
63.8 -2.8
65.6 1.5
.7
72.8
75.7 3.6
79.5
.'6
82.5

67.7
65.8
61.9
63.0
65.3
68.1
73.3
73.9
74.8
76.9

25.3
20.2
13.7
9.8
11.1
12.8
17.5
19.1
17.7
21.8

119.0 4.9
133.8 9.6
154.1 4.0
187.6 - . 2
206.7 - 1 . 9
201.0 - 2 . 9
162.1 10.0
172.4
2
173.8 4*. 6
178.1 - 3 . 9

35.6
50.0
57.2
85.6
95.9
84.3
54.7
60.1
61.3
58.0

32.8 2.7
43.5 6.6
54.4 2.9
85.2
.4
97.4 - 1 . 5
87.4 - 3 . 1
46.1 8.6
58.6 1.5
60.0 1.2
61.0 - 3 . 0

88.4
93.4
100.9
101.7
108.8
113.7
117.4
112.2
117.1
116.2

80.0
89.8
107.7
131.8
144.0
144.3
113.3
106.5
109.3
112.4

23.2
30.
31.9
17.9
12.4
12.9
27.2
31.2
36.
37.5

10.3
11.4
14.8

355.3
383.4
395.1
412.8
407.0
438.0
446.1
452.5
447.3
475.9

347.0
8.3 192.6 184.3 8.3
372.5 10.9 208.4 197.5 10.9
391.8
3.3 214.0 210.7 3.3
411.8
225.4 224.5
.9
409.0 - 2 i 0 215.1 217.1 - 2 . 0
431.6
6.4 236.1 229.7 6.4
441.2
4.8 239.0 234.2 4.8
451.2
1.2 239.8 238.5 1.2
448.8 - 1 . 5 230.8 232.3 1 5
471.1
4.8 247.7 242.9

73.4
84.1
84.6
91.0
81.9
96.5
96.5
96.2
83.6
94.0

68.3 5.2 119.1 116.0 3.1 117.5
76.1 8.0 124.3 121.4 2.9 130.5
83.2 1.5 129.4 127.6 1.8 136.3
89.9 1.2 134.4 134.6 - . 2 140.3
.9 141.8
84.8 - 3 . 0 133.2 132.3
93.0 3.4 139.7 136.7 3.0 147.5
1.8 153.0
93.5 3.0 142.5 140.7
.0 160.1
95.0 1.2 143.6 143.6
86.4 - 2 . 8 147.2 145.9 1.3 163.4
91.6 2.4 153.7 151.2 2.5 171.2

45.2
44.4
44.7
47.0
50.2
54.3
54.0
52.6
53.1
57.0

19.1
15.9
13.5
18.7
17.1
24.6
18.6
20.2
14.5
18.5

487.7
497.2
529.8
551.0
581.1
617.8
658.1
674.6
707.6
727.7

484.
495.2
523.8
545.2
575.2
608.8
644.
667.7
701.0
720.8

3.5 103.9 100.4

1929...

203.6 200.1

1930...
1931...
1932...
1933...
1934...
1935...
1936...
1937...
1938...
1939...

183.5
169 3
144.2
141.5
154.3
169.5
193.0
203.2
192.9
209.4

184.1
171.7
150.5
145.9
157.0
167.1
189.9
197.8
195.3
208.2

1940...
1941...
1942...
1943...
1944...
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...

227.2
263.7
297.8
337.1
361.3
355.2
312.6
309.9
323.7
324.1

222.3
4.9
254.1
9.6
293.8
4.0
337.3 - . 2
363.2 - 1 . 9
358.2 - 2 . 9
302.6 10.0
310.1 - . 2
319.1
4.6
328.1 -3.9

1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954. .
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961—.
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965..
1966._
1967..
1968..
1969 p.

-.6
-2.4
-6.2
-4.3
-2.7
2.4
3.1
5.5
-2.4
1.2

3.5
2.0
6.0
5.8
5.8
9.0
13.9
6.9
6.6
6.9

124.0
143.4
158.1
187.4
204.8
198.0
172.1
172.2
178.4
174.2

256.0
257.3
277.3
289.7
308.6
330.7
356.8
362.7
381.3
392.7

252.6 3.5 97.8 95.9
255.3 2.0 94.9 94.9
271.3 6.0 107.0 104.1
283.9 5.8 114.2 111.4
302.8 5.8 124.6 120.4
321.7 9.0 136.5 130.1
342.9 13.9 151.8 141.9
355.7 6.9 152.0 148.5
374.7 6.6 162.8 158.0
385.7 6.9 172.4 167.1

2.0
.0
2.8
2.8
4.1
6.5
9.8
3.5
4.7
5.3

158.2
162.3
170.3
175.6
184.1
194.2
205.1
210.7
218.6
220.3

86.2
90.3
99.7
102.4
109.3
113.6
116.0
113.8
113.8
117.1

2.2
3.1
1.2
-.6
-.4
.2
1.4
-1.7
3.3
-.9

156.7
160.3
167.2
172.5
182.3
191.6
201.0
207.3
216.7
218.6

1.5
2.0
3.
3.1
1.7
2.6
4.1
3.4
1.9
1.6

176.6
184.0
193.7
200.9
210.8
221.9
236.3
249 1
259.9
267.3

55.0
55.8
58.8
60.4
61.6
65.2
65.0
62.9
66.4
67.7

21.0
17.5
22.0
24.7
25.5
31.8
30.6
28.7
35.1
34.9

4.7
1.8
3.3
3.8

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967:1.-..
II...
III..
IV...

666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5

658.0
667.4
670.7
674.8

8.5
3.1
7.4
8.7

359.2
362.3
364.2
365.0

350.7
359.2
356.8
356.3

8.5
3.1
7.4
8.7

148.8
152.1
153.0
154.1

145.0
150.8
148.9
149.2

3.8
1.3
4.1
4.9

210.4
210.2
211.2
210.9

205.7
208.4
207.9
207.1

244.8
246.9
251.0
253.7

62.5
61.3
62.9
64.9

26.6
29.3
28.5
30.4

1968:1...
II...
III..
IV...

693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5

691.8
696.8
706.3
709.0

1.5
9.0
6.4
9.6

370.8
380.8
385.5
388.2

369.4
371.7
379.1
378.7

1.5
9.0
6.4
9.6

156.6
162.3
164.5
167.8

154.8
156.2
159.9
161.2

1.7
6.1
4.5
6.5

214.3
218.4
221.1
220.5

214.6 - . 3 255.4
215.5 2.9 258.9
219.2 1.9 262.4
217.5 3.0 262.7

67.1
66.2
64.8
67.5

33.4
35.6
35.2
36.2

1969:1...
II..
III.
IV P.

723.1
726.7
730.6
730.5

717.2
720.7
721.3
723.8

5.9
6.0
9.3
6.7

389.1
391.6
395.9
394.1

383.2
385.7
386.6
387.5

5.9
6.0
9.3
6.7

169.0
171.4
174.7
174.6

164.8
167.3
168.1
168.3

4.2
4.1
6.6
6.3

220.2
220.2
221.2
219.5

218.4
218.4
218.5
219.2

69.3
68.0
67.1
66.5

36.2
33.0
36.4
34.2

Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




183

1.7
1.9
2.7
.3

264.6
267.0
267.6
269.8

TABLE C-6.—Gross national product: Receipts and expenditures by major economic groups,
1929-69
(Billions of dollars]
Persons

Government

Disposable personal
income

Year or
quarter

Net receipts

Expenditures

Surplus
or
PerLess:
Perdeficit
sonal sonal
Inter- Equals:
(-),
con- saving Tax
Less:
Less: Equals:
est
naTotal
and TransTransPurpaid exclud- sumpor
tional
tion
nonfers, Equals: Total
fers,
chases
inand
disex- saving
tax
interNet
exinterof
come
Total i trans- ing in- penditerest
reest,
pendi- est,
goods
reand
fer
()
tures
and
ceipts
ceipts
and
tures
and
and
prodpayservor ac- subsubuct acments transfers
cruals sidies a
sidies 2 ices
counts
to foreigners

1929..

83.3

1.9

81.4

77.2

4.2

11.3

1.8

9.5

10.3

1.8

8.5

1.0

1930..
19311932..
1933..
1934..
1935..
1936..
1937..
1938..
1939..

74.5
64.0
48.7
45.5
52.4
58.5
66.3
71.2
65.5
70.3

1.2
.9
.7
.7
.6
.7
.8
.9
.8
.9

73.3
63.1
48.0
44.9
51.7
57.8
65.5
70.3
64.6
69.4

69.9
60.5
48.6
45.8
51.3
55.7
61.9
66.5
63.9
66.8

3.4
2.6
-.6
-.9
.4
2.1
3.6
3.8

10.8
9.5
8.9
9.3
10.5
11.4
12.9
15.4
15.0
15.4

1.9
3.1
2.6
2.7
3.1
3.4
4.1
3.2
3.8
4.2

8.9
6.3
6.3
6.7
7.4
8.0
8.8
12.2
11.2
11.2

11.1
12.4
10.6
10.7
12.9
13.4
16.1
15.0
16.8
17.6

1.9
3.1
2.6
2.7
3.1
3.4
4.1
3.2
3.8
4.2

9.2
9.2
8.1
8.0
9.8
10.0
12.0
11.9
13.0
13.3

-.3
-2.9
-1.8
-1.4
-2.4
-2.0
-3.1
.3
-1.8
-2.2

1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
1945..
19461947..
1948..
1949..

75.7
92.7
116.9
133.5
146.3
150.2
160.0
169.8
189.1
188.6

1.0
1.1
.8
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.4

74.7
91.6
116.1
132.7
145.5
149.3
158.6
168.0
186.9
186.2

70.8
80.6
88.5
99.3
108.3
119.7
143.4
160.7
173.6
176.8

3.8
11.0
27.6
33.4
37.3
29.6
15.2
9.4

17.7
25.0
32.6
49.2
51.2
53.2
50.9
56.8
58.9
56.0

4.4
4.0
4.4
4.7
6.5
10.4
18.5
17.3
18.8
21.3

13.3
21.0
28.2
44.4
44.7
42.8
32.4
39.5
40.1
34.7

18.4
28.8
64.0
93.3
103.0
92.7
45.5
42.4
50.3
59.1

4.4
4.0
4.4
4.7
6.5
10.4
18.5
17.3
18.8
21.3

14.0
24.8
59.6
88.6
96.5
82.3
27.0
25.1
31.6
37.8

-.7
-3.8
-31.4
-44.1
-51.8
-39.5
5.4
14.4
8.5
-3.2

1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
195619571958..
1959-

206.9
226.6
238.3
252.6
257.4
275.3
293.2
308.5
318.8
337.3

2.9
3.1
3.5
4.3
4.6
5.1
5.9
6.4
6.5
7.1

204.1
223.5
234.8
248.3
252.9
270.2
287.2
302.2
312.3
330.3

191.0
206.3
216.7
230.0
236.5
254.4
266.7
281.4
290.1
311.2

13.1
17.3
18.1
18.3
16.4
15.8
20.6
20.7
22.3
19.1

68.7
84.8
89.8
94.3
89.7
100.4
109.0
115.6
114.7
128.9

22.9
19.9
19.0
19.5
21.9
23.4
25.5
28.7
33.0
34.0

45.8
64.9
70.8
74.8
67.8
76.9
83.5
86.8
81.6
95.0

60.8
79.0
93.7
101.2
96.7
97.6
104.1
114.9
127.2
131.0

22.9
19.9
19.0
19.5
21.9
23.4
25.5
28.7
33.0
34.0

37.9
59.1
74.7
81.6
74.8
74.2
78.6
86.1
94.2
97.0

7.8
5.8
-3.8
-6.9
-7.0
2.7
4.9
.7
-12.5
-2.1

1960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..

350.0
364.4
385.3
404.6
438.1
473.2
511.9
546.5
590.0
629.6

7.8
8.1
8.6
9.7
10.7
12.0
13.0
13.9
15.0
16.0

342.3
356.3
376.6
394.9
427.4
461.3
498.9
532.6
575.0
613.6

325.2
335.2
355.1
375.0
401.2
432.8
466.3
492.3
536.6
576.0

17.0
21.2
21.6
19.9
26.2
28.4
32.5
40.4
38.4
37.6

139.8
144.6
157.0
168.8
174.1
189.1
213.3
228.4
264.2
302.0

36.5
41.3
42.8
44.4
46.7
49.9
55.5
62.8
70.6
78.3

103.3
103.3
114.2
124.3
127.3
139.2
157.9
165.6
193.6
223.7

136.1
149.0
159.9
166.9
175.4
186.9
212.3
242.9
270.8
293.0

36.5
41.3
42.8
44.4
46.7
49.9
55.5
62.8
70.6
78.3

99.6
107.6
117.1
122.5
128.7
137.0
156.8
180.1
200.3
214.7

3.7
-4.3
-2.9
1.8
-1.4
2.2
1.1
-14.5
-6.7
9.0

1969*

2.6

7.3
13.4

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967:1....
II....
III...
IV...

534.4
541.6
550.3
559.8

13.5
14.1
13.9
14.1

520.9
527.5
536.4
545.7

480.9
489.8
495.7
502.6

40.0
37.7
40.7
43.1

222 0
224.5
230.2
236.9

61.9
61.9
63.4
64.0

160.1
162.5
166.7
173.0

236.1
240.4
244.8
250.4

61.9
61.9
63.4
64.0

174.2
178.5
181.3
186.4

-14.1
-16.0
-14.6
-13.4

1968:1....
IL_._
III...
IV...

575.0
587.4
593.4
604.3

14.5
14.8
15.2
15.5

560.5
572.6
578.2
588.8

520.6
530.3
544.9
550.7

39.9
42.3
33.2
38.0

248.5
257.3
271.0
279.7

66.6
69.7
72.0
73.9

181.9
187.6
199.1
205.8

260.0
268.1
274.5
280.6

66.6
69.7
72.0
73.9

193.4
198.4
202.5
206.7

-11.5
-10.8
-3.5
-.9

1969:1.... 610.2
I L . . . 622.0
I I I . . . 639.0
647.1

15.7
15.9
16.1
16.2

594.5
606.1
622.9
630.9

562.0
572.8
579.8
589.2

32.5
33.3
43.1
41.6

294.1
302.0
303.4

75.8
77.6
78.9
80 9

218.3
224.4
224.4

285.9
290.6
296.0
299.7

75.8
77.6
78.9
80.9

210.0
212.9
217.0
218.9

8.3
11.4
7.4

See footnotes at end of table.




184

T A B L E G-6.—Gross national product:

Receipts and expenditures by major economic groups,

1929-69—Continued
[Billions of dollars]

International

Business

Net exports of goods
TransExcess
and services
fers to
of
Gross
fortranspriExcess eigners
Gross
fers
revate
of in- by peror
tained domes- vestsons
Less: Equals: of net
earn- tic in- ment
Exand
Net
Imexings 3 vestGovexports ports
(-)
ports
ment*
ernports
<-)«
ment

Year
or
quarter

1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943 .
1944 ..
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963__
1964
1965
1966
1967—
1968
1969*

-

.

...

_.

11.2
8.6
5.3
32
3.2
5.2
6.4
67
7.7
8.0
8.4
10.5
11 4
14.5
16.3
17.1
15 1
14.5
20.2
28.0
29.7
29.4
33.1
35.1
36.1
39.2
46.3
47.3
49.8
49.4
56.8
56.8
58.7
66.3
68.8
76.2
84.7
91.3
93.3
96.7
98.6

16.2
10.3
5.6
1.0
1.4
3.3
6.4
8.5
11.8
6.5
9.3
13.1
17.9
9.8
5.7
7.1
10.6
30.6
34.0
46.0
35.7
54.1
59.3
51.9
52.6
51.7
67.4
70.0
67.8
60.9
75.3
74.8
71.7
83.0
87.1
94.0
108.1
121.4
116.0
126.3
139.6

-5.1
-1.6
-.3
2.2
1.8
1.9
*
-1.8
-4.0
1.6
-.9
-2.7
-6.5
4.6
10.6
10.0
4.6
-16.1
-13.8
-18.0
-6.0
-24.7
-26.2
-16.8
-16.5
-12.5
-21.1
-22.8
-18.1
-11.5
-18.5
-18.0
-13.0
-16.8
-18.4
-17.8
-23.4
-30 1
-22.7
-29 6
-41.0

0.4
.3
.3
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.3
8
29
2.6
4.5
5.6
4.0
3.5
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.5
2.4
23
2.4
2.4
2.4
26
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
28
3.0
2.9
2.6

7.0
5.4
3.6
2.5
2.4
3.0
3.3
3.5
4.6
4.3
4.4
5.4
5.9
4.8
4.4
5.3
7.2
14.7
19.7
16.8
15.8
13.8
18.7
18.0
16.9
17.8
19.8
23.6
26.5
23.1
23.5
27.2
28.6
30.3
32.3
37.1
39.2
43 4
46.2
50.6
55.4

5.9
4.4

3.1
2.1
2.0
2.4
3.1
3.4
4.3
3.0
3.4
3.6
4.6
4.8
6.5
7.1
7.9
7.2
8.2
10.3
9.6
12.0
15.1
15.8
16.6
15.9
17.8
19.6
20.8
20.9
23.3
23.2
23 0
25.1
26.4
28.6
32.3
38 1
41 0
48.1
53.3

1.1
1.0
.5
4
.4
.6
.1
1
.3
1.3
1.1
1.7
13
*
-2.0
-1.8
— 6
75
11 5
6.4
6.1
1.8
3.7
2.2
4
18
2.0
4.0
57
22
.1
4.0
56
51
5.9
8.5
69
53
5.2
2.5
2.1

-0.8
-.7
-.2
-.2
-.2
-.4
.1
1
1
-1.1
-.9
-1.5
-1 1
2
2.2
2.1
14
-4 6
-8 9
-1.9
-.5
2.2
-.2
.3
21
5
.5
-1.5
-3 4
.2
2.3
-1.7
-3 0
-2.5
-3.1
-5.7
-4 1
—2 4
-2.2
.3
.6

Gross
naTotal Statis- tional
income tical
proddisor reuct
ceipts crep- or exancy penditure

102.4
91.2
75.1
57.7
55.0
64.5
72.5
81.3
90.5
84.1
89.2
98.7
124.1
159.0
193.6
207.6
208.0
208.4
230.4
259.5
256.2
283.3
325.1
343.3
361.6
362.1
395.9
420.4
441.1
445.8
484.5
504.8
520.8
559.8
590.8
633.7
688.0
750.9
794.5
868.2
938.5

-.2
12
*
.6
1.3
1.0
.4
-1.1
-2.0
2.5
39
.1
.9
-2.0
.3
1.5
3.3
2.2
3.0
2.7
2.1
-1.1
*
1.6
-.8
-1.0
-.8
.5
-.3
-1.3
-3.1
10
-1.0
-2.5
-6.2

103.1
90.4
75.8
58.0
55.6
65.1
72.2
82.5
90.4
84.7
90.5
99.7
124.5
157.9
191.6
210.1
211.9
208.5
231.3
257.6
256.5
284.8
328.4
345.5
364.6
364.8
398.0
419.2
441.1
447.3
483.7
503.7
520.1
560.3
590.5
632.4
684.9
749.9
793.5
865.7
932.3

0.7
-.8
.7
.3
.6

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
91.6
91.9
93.8
95.9

1967: L_
II
III...
IV
1968: 1
II
III...
IV
1969: 1
II...
III
IV v

_ ...

113.6
109.4
117.7
123.3

-21.9
-17.5
-23.9
-27.4

2.8
3.3
3.3
2.6

45.8
45.9
46.3
46.7

40.4
40.1
40.7
42.8

5.4
5.8
5.6
3.8

-2.7
-2.5
-2.3
-1.3

775.4
785.2
800.3
817.2

-1.2
-1.7
.1
-1.1

774.2
783.5
800.4
816.1

92.1
97.2
99.3
98.3

119.4
126.6
125.2
133.9

-27.3
-29.4
-26.0
-35.7

2.5
2.8
3.1
3.1

47.7
50.7
53.4
50.6

45.9
47.3
49.7
49.4

1.9
3.4
3.6
1.2

.7
-.6
-.6
1.9

837.1
860.2
879.6
895.9

-1.8
-1.6
-3.3
-3.4

835.3
858.7
876.4
892.5

97.7
98.0
99.7

135.2
137.4
143.3
142.4

-37.5
-39.4
-43.6

2.4
2.8
2.6
2.7

47.6
57.1
57.8
59.1

46.1
55.5
55.2
56 4

1.5
1.6
2.7
26

1.0
1.2
.0
1

912.9
931.3
949.7

-4.2
-6.5
-6.9

908.7
924.8
942.8
953.1

> Personal income less personal tax and nontax payments (fines penalties, etc.).
2 Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid by government,
and subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises.
3 Undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, capital consumption allowances, and
wage accruals less disbursements.
* Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions, and residential housing.
See Table C - l l .
5
Net foreign investment with sign changed.
Note.—Corporate profits tax and related items for 1969 reflect repeal of investment tax credit.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




185

TABLE C-7.—Gross national product by sector, J929-69
[Billions of dollars]
Gross private productl
Year or
quarter

Total
gross
national
product

Business
Total
Total

Nonfarm2

Farm

Households
and
institutions

Rest of
the world

Gross
government
product 3

1929

103.1

98.8

95.1

85.4

9.7

2.9

0.8

4.3

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

90.4
75.8
58.0
55.6
65.1
72.2
82.5
90.4
84.7
90.5

85.8
71.2
53.6
50.9
59.5
66.3
75.2
83.5
77.0
82.9

82.4
68.3
51.3
48.9
57.4
64.1
72.9
81.0
74.5
80.3

74.8
62.0
46.8
44.3
52.7
57.1
66.5
72.7
67.9
74.0

7.7
6.3
4.5
4.6
47
7.0
6.4
8.3
6.6
6.3

2 7
2.3
1.9
1.7
18
1.9
2.0
23
22
2.3

7
5
.4
.3
3
4
.3
3
4
3

45
4 7
4.4
4.7
5 6
5 9
7.3
69
76
7 6

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

99.7
124.5
157.9
191.6
210.1
211.9
208.5
231.3
257.6
256.5

91.9
115.1
142.8
166.0
177.9
176.8
187.7
214.6
240.1
237.0

89.1
112.2
139.5
162.4
173.8
172.3
182.7
208.6
233.5
230.1

82.6
103.3
126.5
147.2
158.5
156.4
163.9
188.5
210.2
211.4

6.5
8.9
13.0
15.3
15.3
15.9
18.8
20.2
23.3
18.8

24
25
2.9
3.2
3.7
4.1
4.5
5.1
5.6
5.9

4
4
4
.4
.4
4
.6
.8
1.0
1.0

78
94
15.1
25.6
32.2
35.2
20.8
16.7
17.4
19.4

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

284.8
328.4
345.5
364.6
364.8
398.0
419.2
441.1
447.3
483.7

263.9
301.0
314.3
332.7
332.4
363.8
382.6
402.0
405.2
439.4

256.3
292.8
305.8
323.6
322.7
352.9
370.8
389.3
391.7
425.0

236.3
269.9
283.7
303.3
303.1
334.1
352.2
370.9
370.9
405.3

20.0
22.9
22.2
20.3
19.6
18.8
18.6
18.4
20.8
19.6

6.4
6.9
7.2
7.8
8.1
9.1
9.8
10.5
11.4
12.2

1.2
13
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.0
2.2

?0.9
27.4
31.2
31.9
32.5
34.2
36.6
39.1
42.1
44.3

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966...
1967...
1968
1969*

503.7
520.1
560.3
590.5
632.4
684.9
749.9
793.5
865.7
932.3

456.3
469.2
505.7
532.4
569.4
617.1
673.3
708.2
770.5
828.2

440.7
452.3
487.4
513.0
548.2
594.4
648.9
681.0
740.6
795.4

420.2
431.4
466.2
491.5
527.6
570.8
624.0
656.6
715.7
768.4

20.5
20.9
21.2
21.5
20.6
23.7
24.9
24.4
24.9
27.0

13.2
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.3
18.5
20.2
22.7
25.2
28.6

2.4
2.9
3.3
3.4
4.0
4.2
4.1
4.5
4.7
4.2

47.5
50.9
54.7
58.1
63.0
67.8
76.6
85.3
95.2
104.1

Seasonally adjusted annual rate 5
1967:1
||
III
IV

774.2
783.5
800.4
816.1

692.0
699.5
714.2
727.1

665.9
673.0
686.4
698.6

642.1
648.6
661.7
673.9

23.8
24.4
24.7
24.7

22.0
22.5
22.9
23.4

4.1
4.0
4.9
5.1

82.2
84.0
86.2
89.0

1968:1
II
III
IV

835.3
858.7
876.4
892.5

743.9
764.9
779.2
794.0

715.4
734.6
749.3
763.1

690.5
709.8
724.1
738.4

24.9
24.8
25.2
24.7

24.3
25.4
25.0
26.0

4.3
4.9
4.9
4.9

91.3
93.8
97.1
98.5

1969:1
II
III
IV v

908.7
924.8
942.8
953.1

808.5
822.7
836.5
845.2

776.7
790.5
803.6
810.8

751.1
763.0
775.9
783.8

25.7
27.6
27.7
26.9

27.2
28.3
28.9
30.0

4.5
3.9
4.1
4.4

100.2
102.1
106.2
107.9

* Gross national product less compensation of general government employees.
2
Includes compensation of employees in government enterprises. Government enterprises are those agencies of government whose operating costs are to a substantial extent covered by the sale of goods and services, in contrast to the
general activities of government, which are financed mainly by tax revenues and debt creation. The Post Office and public
power systems are examples of government enterprises; on the other hand, State universities and public parks are part of
general government activities.
s Compensation of general government employees.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




186

TABLE C - 8 — Gross national product by sector, in 1958 prices, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars, 1958 prices]
Gross private product i
Year or
quarter

Total
gross
national
product

Business
Tntal
i oiai

Nonfarm2

Total

Farm

Households
and
institutions

Rest of
the world

Gross
government
products

1929..

203.6

190.9

182.1

165.1

17.0

7.4

1.4

12.7

1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..
1935..
1936.
1937.
1938.
1939.

183.5
169.3
144.2
141.5
154.3
169.5
193.0
203.2
192.9
209.4

170.1
155.8
131.0
127.5
138.3
152.4
173.1
184.3
172.6
188.7

161.4
147.7
123.8
120.6
131.1
144.9
165.4
176.4
164.6
180.7

145.4
129.2
105.8
103.0
116.6
128.4
150.5
158.5
146.8
162.5

16.1
18.5
18.0
17.5
14.6
16.5
14.9
17.9
17.8
18.2

7.1
6.6
6.0
5.7
6.2
6.4
6.8
7.1
6.8
7.1

1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.0
.8
1.1
.9

13.3
13.5
13.2
14.0
16.0
17.1
19.9
18.9
20.4
20.6

1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944.
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.

227.2
263.7
297.8
337.1
361.3
355.2
312.6
309.9
323.7
324.1

205.6
236.6
257.3
272.8
286.9
282.5
275.1
281.4
295.0
294.1

197.1
228.1
248.7
264.9
278.9
274.6
267.0
272.8
286.0
284.7

179.6
209.3
228.0
245.3
259.5
256.5
248.6
255.8
267.0
266.2

17.5
18.8
20.6
19.6
19.4
18.1
18.5
17.0
19.0
18.4

7.6
7.5
7.8
7.2
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.5
7.9
8.2

1.0
.9
.8
.8
.9
.8
.9
1.1
1.2
L.2

21.6
27.2
40.5
64.3
74.4
72.8
37.5
28.6
28.7
30.1

1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.

355.3
383.4
395.1
412.8
407.0
438.0
446.1
452.5
447.3
475.9

324.2
344.6
353.2
371.1
366.2
397.2
404.8
410.5
405.2
433.4

314.2
334.5
343.2
360.7
355.4
385.4
392.2
397.5
391.7
419.4

294.9
316.2
324.2
340.7
335.0
364.4
371.4
377.2
370.9
398.3

19.4
18.4
19.0
20.0
20.4
20.9
20.8
20.3
20.8
21.1

8.7
8.8
8.8
9.1
9.2
10.1
10.6
10.9
11.4
11.7

1.3
1.2
1.2
L.3
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.2

31.1
38.8
41.8
41.7
40.9
40.7
41.3
41.9
42.1
42.5

1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969 p . .

487.7
497.2
529.8
551.0
581.1
617.8
658.1
674.6
707.6
727.7

444.0
452.3
482.9
503.2
532.0
567.0
603.5
617.0
647.9
666.7

429.5
436.9
466.7
486.6
514.4
548.9
584.9
597.3
627.5
645.3

407.6
414.8
444.6
463.8
492.1
525.2
562.5
573.5
604.2
621.8

21.9
22.2
22.1
22.8
22.3
23.7
22.4
23.7
23.3
23.5

12.2
12.4
12.9
13.2
13.7
14.0
14.6
15.4
15.9
17.3

2.3
2.9
3.4
3.4
3.9
4.1
3.9
4.3
4.5
4.0

43.7
44.8
46.9
47.8
49.1
50.8
54.6
57.6
59.7
61.0

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967:: l
II..
III.
IV..

666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5

609.6
613.1
619.9
625.4

590.6
593.9
599.7
604.8

567.3
570.0
575.9
581.1

23.3
24.0
23.9
23.7

15.1
15.4
15.5
15.7

3.9
3.8
4.7
4.9

56.9
57.3
58.1
58.1

1968: !.

693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5

634.6
646.1
652.6
658.3

615.0
625.3
632.1
637.5

591.0
602.3
608.8
614.6

24.0
23.0
23.4
22.9

15.5
16.1
15.7
16.2

4.1
4.7
4.7
4.6

58.7
59.8
60.2
60.2

723.1
726.7
730.6
730.5

662.6
665.8
669.4
668.9

641.5
644.8
648.2
646.9

617.8
621.1
624.1
624.3

23.7
23.7
24.1
22.6

16.8
17.2
17.4
17.8

4.3
3.7
3.9
4.2

60.5
60.9
61.1
61.6

III.
IV.
1969:1.
II..
III..
IV p
1

Gross national product less compensation of general government employees.
Includes compensation of employees in government enterprises. Government enterprises are those agencies of government whose operating costs are to a substantial extent covered by the sale of goods and services, in contrast to the general
activities of government, which are financed mainly by tax revenues and debt creation. The Post Office and public power
systems are examples of government enterprises; on the other hand, State universities and public parks are part of general government activities.
3
Compensation of general government employees.
2

Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




187

TABLE G-9.—Gross national product by industry•, in 1958 prices, 1947-68
[Billions of dollars, 1958 prices]
Manufacturing

AgriTotal culture, Congross forestract
nats
contional
and
strucproduct fishtion

Year

Total

eries

1965
1966
1967
1968

sale
and
retail
trade

GovFinance,
erninsurment
ance, Servand
All
and
ices govern- other»
real
ment
estate
enterprises

12.9
14.1
14.7

91.8
96.3
90.9

52.3
55.0
50.5

39.4
41.3
40.4

29.6
30.4
28.7

52.7
54.2
55.2

35.6
36.5
37.8

30.6
31.9
32.1

32.4
33.2
34.7

6.7
71
10.6

395.1
412.8
407.0

20.4
19.5
20.2
21.2
21.6

16.2
18.2
18.3
18.9
19.3

105.5
116.2
118.7
128.6
119.5

60.8
69.0
71.5
79.1
71.2

44.7
47.2
47.3
49.5
48.3

30.8
34.3
34.6
35.7
36.4

60.4
61.4
62.9
64.9
65.5

41.0
42.9
44.7
46.8
49.8

33.1
34.0
34.5
35.3
35.4

35.9
43.9
47.2
47.1
46.1

12.1
13.0
14.0
14.3
13.5

438.0
446.1
452.5
447.3
475.9

22.1
22.0
21.5
22.0
22.3

20.8
21.8
21.1
20.7
22.0

133.6
134.1
134.6
123.7
138.9

80.7
79.4
79.6
69.6
79.9

52.9
54.6
54.9
54.0
59.0

38.6
40.5
41.3
40.6
43.3

71.6
73.8
75.1
75.1
80.8

52.7
54.8
57.0
59.2
61.4

38.2
40.2
41.8
42.9
45.1

46.0
46.2
46.9
47.3
47.9

14.4
12.7
13.1
16.0
14.1

487.7
497.2

.

17.9
20.0
19.4

355.3

.

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 . .
1960
1961
1962 . .
1963
1964

VA/hnlo

309.9
323.7
324.1

1947
1948
1949 .
1950
1951 .
1952
1953
1954 .

Transportation,
comNonDurmuniable durable cation,
goods goods
and
indus- indus- utilitries
tries
ties

551.0
581.1

23.1
23.4
23.3
24.0
23.6

21.7
21.4
21.7
21.9
23.3

140.9
140.4
154.6
162.4
173.7

81.0
79.7
90.0
95.6
102.4

59.9
60.7
64.7
66.8
71.3

44.9
46.0
48.9
51.9
54.7

82.3
83.5
88.9
92.8
98.9

64.1
67.1
71.2
74.4
78.3

46.7
48.3
50.8
52.2
54.7

49.2
50.6
52.6
53.9
56.1

14.7
16.3
17.9
17.4
17.8

617.8
658.1
674.6
707.6

25.0
23.7
25.0
24.6

23.5
24.7
23.1
23.8

190.5
205.7
205.6
220.6

114.8
125.1
124.4
133.3

75.7
80.7
81.^3
87.2

59.2
64.0
66.5
70.4

104.8
111.6
113.9
119.9

83.1
86.8
91.3
95.8

57.7
60.6
63.6
65.9

58.0
61.8
65.5
68.6

15.8
19.4
20.0
17.6

. 383.4

. 529.8

i Mining, rest of the world, and residual (the difference between gross national product measured as sum of final products and gross national product measured as sum of gross product by industries).
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




188

TABLE C-10.—Personal consumption expenditures, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars]
tion

Durable goods

Service:>

Nondurable goods

Q.

Year
or
quarter

Is

CO
Q.

•a

P

i

g

Is

co

I if
o

a.

is

3

I

1

1

£=
CO

JEL

"
o
h-

O

o
TJ
{=

.Q

a

o
lo

.
1 = s

DO
C

|

1
c
"
o
o

a>
O

I

|

0>
CO
3
O

1
2

X

o

1929.... 77.2

9.2

3.2

4.8

1.2

37.7

19.5

9.4

1.8

7.0

30.3

11.5

4.0

2.6

12.2

1930...
1931
1932
1933._
1934...
1935....
1936....
1937....
1938....
1939

69.9
60.5
48.6
45.8
51.3
55.7
61.9
66.5
63.9
66.8

7.2
5.5
3.6
3.5
4.2
5.1
6.3
6.9
5.7
6.7

2.2
1.6
.9
1.1
1.4
1.9
2.3
2.4
1.6
2.2

3.9
3.1
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.6
3.2
3.6
3.1
3.5

1.1
.9
.6
.5
.6
.7
.8
1.0
.9
1.0

34.0
29.0
22.7
22.3
26.7
29.3
32.9
35.2
34.0
35.1

18.0
14.7
11.4
11.5
14.2
16.2
18.4
19.9
18.9
19.1

8.0
6.9
5.1
4.6
5.7
6.0
6.6
6.8
6.8
7.1

1.7
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.2

6.3
5.7
4.8
4.6
5.2
5.4
5.9
6.3
6.2
6.7

28.7
26.0
22.2
20.1
20.4
21.3
22.8
24.4
24.3
25.0

11.0
10.3
9.0
7.9
7.6
7.7
8.0
8.5
8.9
9.1

3.9
3.5
3.0
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.8

2.2
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0

11.5
10.3
8.6
7.9
8.2
8.7
9.5
10.2
9.9
10.1

1940
1941
1942....
1943
1944
1945
1946....
1947....
1948....
1949

70.8
80.6
88.5
99.3
08.3
19.7
43.4
60.7
73.6
76.8

7.8
9.6
6.9
6.6
6.7
8.0
15.8
20.4
22.7
24.6

2.7
3.4
.7
.8
.8
1.0
4.0
6.2
7.5
9.9

3.9
4.9
4.7
3.9
3.8
4.6
8.6
10.9
11.9
11.6

1.1
1.4
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.5
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.2

37.0
42.9
50.8
58.6
64.3
71.9
82.4
90.5
96.2
94.5

20.2
23.4
28.4
33.2
36.7
40.6
47.4
52.3
54.2
52.5

7.4
8.8
11.0
13.4
14.4
16.5
18.2
18.8
20.1
19.3

2.3
2.6
2.1
1.3
1.6
1.8
3.0
3.6
4.4
5.0

7.1
8.0
9.3
10.6
11.7
13.0
13.8
15.7
17.5
17.7

26.0
28.1
30.8
34.2
37.2
39.8
45.3
49.8
54.7
57.6

9.4
10.2
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.9
15.7
17.5
19.3

4.0
4.3
4.8
5.2
5.9
6.4
6.8
7.5
8.1
8.5

2.1
2.4
2.7
3.4
3.7
4.0
5.0
5.3
5.8
5.9

10.4
11.2
12.3
14.0
15.6
16.8
19.7
21.4
23.3
23.9

1950
1951
1952....
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
[959

91.0
06.3
16.7
30.0
36.5
54.4
66.7
81.4
290.1
311.2

30.5
29.6
29.3
33.2
32.8
39.6
38.9
40.8
37.9
44.3

13.1
11.6
11.1
14.2
13.6
18.4
16.4
18.3
15.4
19.5

14.1
14.4
14.3
14.9
15.0
16.6
17.5
17.3
17.1
18.9

3.3
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.2
4.6
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.9

98.1
108.8
114.0
116.8
118.3
123.3
129.3
135.6
140.2
146.6

53.9
60.4
63.4
64.4
65.4
67.2
69.9
73.6
76.4
78.6

19.6
21.2
21.9
22.1
22.1
23.1
24.1
24.3
24.7
26.4

5.4
6.1
6.8
7.7
8.2
9.0
9.8
10.6
11.0
11.6

19.2 62.4
21.1 67.9
21.7 73.4
22.7 79.9
22.6 85.4
24.0 91.4
25.4 98.5
27.1 105.0
28.2 112.0
30.1 120.3

21.3
23.9
26.5
29.3
31.7
33.7
36.0
38.5
41.1
43.7

9.5
10.4
11.1
12.0
12.6
14.0
15.2
16.2
17.3
18.5

6.2
6.7
7.1
7.8
7.9
8.2
8.6
9.0
9.3
10 1

25.4
26.9
28.7
30.8
33.2
35.5
38.6
41.3
44.3
48.0

I960....
1961
1962~"I
1963.-..
1964
1965.".'..
1966
1967
1968
1969 p . .

325.2
335.2
355.1
375.0
401 2
432.8
466.3
492.3
536.6
576.0

45.3
44.2
49.5
53.9
59.2
66.3
70.8
73.0
83.3
89.6

20.1
18.4
22.0
24.3
25.8
30.3
30.3
30.5
37.0
40.3

18.9
19.3
20.5
22.2
25.0
26.9
29.9
31.3
34.2
35.9

6.3
6.5
6.9
7.5
8 5
9.1
10.5
11.2
12.1
13.4

151.3
155.9
162.6
168.6
178.7
191.1
206.9
215.1
230.6
243.8

80.5
82.9
85.7
88.2
92 9
98.8
105.8
108.1
115.0
120.0

27.3
27.9
29.6
30.6
33.5
35.9
40.3
42.5
46.3
49.9

12.3
12.4
12.9
13.5
14.0
15.3
16.6
17.7
19.1
21.3

31.2
32.7
34.4
36.3
38.2
41.1
44.4
46.8
50.1
52.7

128.7
135 1
143.0
152.4
163 3
175.5
188.6
204.2
222.8
242.5

46.3
48 7
52.0
55.4
59 3
63.5
67.5
71.8
77.4
83.7

20.0
20.8
22.0
23.1
24.3
25.6
27.1
29.1
31.2
33.5

10.8
10.6
11.0
11.4
11.6
12.6
13.6
14.7
16.1
17.5

51.6
54.9
58.0
62.5
68 1
73.8
80.4
88.6
98.1
107.8

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
480.9
489.8
495.7
502.6

70.0
73.5
73.3
75.2

28.4
31.3
30.9
31.2

30.7
31.2
31.2
32.2

10.9
11.0
11.2
11.7

213.2
214.4
215.8
216.8

107.8
107.6
108.1
108.9

41.7
42.6
42.9
42.7

17.3
17.5
17.9
18.1

46.4
46.7
46.8
47.1

197.7
201.8
206.6
210.6

70.1
71.1
72.3
73.7

28.2
29.0
29.3
30.1

14.4
14.5
14.8
15.0

85.0
87.2
90.3
91.8

1968: 1.. 520.6
II. 530.3
Ill 544.9
IV 550.7

79.5
81.8
85.8
86.3

34.8
35.6
38.6
39.0

33.4
33.8
35.0
34.6

11.3
12.4
12.1
12.8

226.1
228.5
233.3
234.3

112.6
114.8
116.1
116.4

45.0
45.6
47.4
47.3

18.9
18.8
19.5
19.5

49.6
49.4
50.3
51.1

215.1
220.0
225.8
230.1

75.2
76.7
77.9
79.8

30.5
30.7
31.6
31.9

15.5
15.9
16.3
16.5

93.8
96.7
100.0
101.8

562.0
572.8
579.8
589.2

88.4
90.6
89.8
89.6

39.4
40.0
40.8
40.9

35.5
36.8
35.8
35.6

13.6
13.8
13.2
13.1

238.6
242.1
245.1
249.4

118.4
119.1
119.9
122.6

48.1
50.0
50.8
50.6

20.4
21.0
21.8
22.0

51.8
52.0
52.7
54.2

235.0
240.1
244.9
250.2

81.3
82.8
84.4
86.3

32.7
33.1
33.9
34.2

17.1
17.3
17.7
17.9

103.9
106.9
108.8
111.8

1967:1.II.
Ill
IV

1969:1.
II
III
IV
1

Includes standard clothing issued to military personnel.
2 Includes imputed rental value of owner-occupied dwellings.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.

372-111 O—70




l89

TABLE C-ll.—Gross private domestic investment, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars]
Change in
business
inventories

Fixed investment

Year or
quarter

Total
gross
private
domestic
investment

Nonresidential

Structures

Total

Residential structures
Producers'
durable
equipment

Total
Total

Total
Total

Nonfarm

Total

Nonfarm

0.2

Nonfarm

Farm

Nonfarm

1929..

16.2

14.5

10.6

5.0

4.8

5.6

4.9

4.0

3.8

1.7

1.8

1930..
19311932..
19331934..
1935..
1936..
1937..
1938..
1939..

10.3
5.6
1.0
1.4
3.3
6.4
8.5
11.8
6.5
9.3

10.6
6.8
3.4
3.0
4.1
5.3
7.2
9.2
7.4
8.9

8.3
5.0
2.7
2.4
3.2
4.1
5.6
7.3
5.4
5.9

4.0
2.3
1.2
.9
1.0
1.2
1.6
2.4
1.9
2.0

3.9
2.3
1.2
.9
1.0
1.2
1.6
2.4
1.8
1.9

4.3
2.7
1.5
1.5
2.2
2.9
4.0
4.9
3.5
4.0

3.7
2.4
1.3
1.3
1.8
2.4
3.3
4.1
2.9
3.4

2.3
1.7
.7
.6
.9
1.2
1.6
1.9
2.0
2.9

2.2
1.6
.7
.5
.8
1.1
1.5
1.8
1.9
2.8

-.4
-1.1
-2.5
-1.6
l!l
1.3
2.5
-.9
.4

-.1
-1.6
-2.6
-1.4
.2
.4
2.1
1.7
-1.0
.3

1940..
1941..
1942..
19431944..
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949-

13.1
17.9
9.8
5.7
7.1
10.6
30.6
34.0
46.0
35.7

11.0
13.4
8.1
6.4
8.1
11.6
24.2
34.4
41.3
38.8

7.5
9.5
6.0
5.0
6.8
10.1
17.0
23.4
26.9
25.1

2.3
2.9
1.9
1.3
1.8
2.8
6.8
7.5
8.8
8.5

2.2
2.8
1.8
1.2
1.7
2.7
6.1
6.7
8.0
7.7

5.3
6.6
4.1
3.7
5.0
7.3
10.2
15.9
18.1
16.6

4.6
5.6
3.5
3.2
4.2
6.3
9.2
14.0
15.5
13.7

3.4
3.9
2.1
1.4
1.3
1.5
7.2
11.1
14.4
13.7

3.2
3.7
1.9
1.2
1.1
1.4
6.7
10.4
13.6
12.8

2.2
4.5
1.8
-.6
-1.0
-1.0
6.4
-.5
4.7
-3.1

1.9
4.0
.7
-.6
-.6
-.6
6.4
1.3
3.0
-2.2

1950..
1951..
195219531954..
1955..
19561957..
1958..
1959-

54.1
59.3
51.9
52.6
51.7
67.4
70.0
67.8
60.9
75.3

47.3
49.0
48.8
52.1
53.3
61.4
65.3
66.5
62.4
70.5

27.9
31.8
31.6
34.2
33.6
38.1
43.7
46.4
41.6
45.1

9.2
11.2
11.4
12.7
13.1
14.3
17.2
18.0
16.6
16.7

8.5
10.4
10.5
11.9
12.3
13.6
16.5
17.2
15.8
15.9

18.7
20.7
20.2
21.5
20.6
23.8
26.5
28.4
25.0
28.4

15.7
17.7
17.6
18.6
18.0
21.2
24.2
25.9
22.0
25.4

(193)
17.2
17.2
18.0
19.7
23.3
21.6
20. 220,8
25.5

18.6
16.4
16.4
17.2
19.0
22.7
20.9
19.5
20.1
24.8

6.8
10.3
3.1
.4
-1.5
6.0
4.7
1.3
-1.5
4.8

6.0
9.1
2.1
1.1
-2.1
5.5
5.1
.8
-2.3
4.8

1960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969 P

74.8
71.7
83.0
87.1
94.0
108.1
121.4
116.0
126.3
139.6

71.3
69.7
77.0
81.3
88.2
98.5
106.6
108.6
119.0
131.5

48.4
47.0
51.7
54.3
61.1
71.3
81.6
83.7
88.8
99.3

18.1
18.4
19.2
19.5
21.2
25.5
28.5
27.9
29.3
33.4

17.4
17.7
18.5
18.8
20.5
24.9
27.8
27.2
28.6
32.6

30.3
28.6
32.5
34.8
39.9
45.8
53.1
55.7
59.5
65.9

27.7
25.8
29.4
31.2
36.3
41.6
48.4
50.9
54.6
61.4

22.8
22.6
25.3
27.0
27.1
27.2
25.0
25.0
30.2
32.2

22.2
22.0
24.8
26.4
26.6
26.7
24.5
24.4
29.6
31.7

3.6
2.0
6.0
5.9
5.8
9.6
14.8
7.4
7.3
8.0

3.3
1.7
5.3
5.1
6.4
8.6
15.0
6.8
7.4
7.8

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967: I

III."
IV._

1968: I
II..

III..
IV..

1969: I . . .
II..
III.

113.6
109.4
117.7
123.3

104.7
106.1
109.9
113.8

83.3
83.0
83.5
85.0

29.0
27.2
27.8
27.8

28.3
26.4
27.0
27.0

54.2
55.8
55.7
57.2

49.6
50.9
50.8
52.3

21.4
23.1
26.5
28.8

20.9
22.5
25.9
28.3

0.6
.6
.6
.6

9.0
3.4
7.8
9.5

9.1
3.0
7.0
8.0

119.4
126.6
125.2
133.9

117.7
116.7
118.0
123.4

89.1
86.4
88.1
91.5

29.8
28.3
29.0
30.1

29.0
27.6
28.3
29.3

59.4
58.1
59.1
61.4

54.2
53.1
54.3
56.7

28.6
30.3
29.9
31.9

28.0
29.7
29.4
31.4

.6
.6
.5
.5

1.6
9.9
7.2
10.5

1.3
10.3
7.5
10.7

135.2
137.4
143.3
142.4

128.6
130.5
132.5
134.5

95.3
97.8
101.1
103.0

32.3
32.1
34.7
34.4

31.6
31.4
34.0
33.6

63.0
65.7
66.4
68.6

58.7
61.0
62.4
63.6

33.3
32.7
31.4
31.6

32.8
32.2
30.9
31.0

.5
.5
.5
.5

6.6
6.9
10.7
7.8

6.6
6.7
10.3
7.6

Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




TABLE G-12.—National income by type of income, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars]

Year or
quarter

Total
national
income1

Total

Corporate profits
and inventory
valuation
adjustment

Business and professional income

Compensation of
employees

Income Rental
inInSupof
Net
come Inven- farm come
pleof
Corpo- Inven- interof
tory
proWages ments
tory
est
perrate
unin- valuto
prieand
valusala- wages Total corpo- ation tors 3 sons Total profits ation
before adjustrated adjustand
ries
taxes < ment
enter- ment
sala2
prises
ries

1929

86.8

51.1

50.4

0.7

9.0

8.8

0.1

6.2

5.4

10.5

10.0

0.5

4.7

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

75.4
59.7
42.8
40.3
49.5
57.2
65.0
73.6
67.4
72.6

46.8
39.8
31.1
29.5
34.3
37.3
42.9
47.9
45.0
48.1

46.2
39.1
30.5
29.0
33.7
36.7
41.9
46.1
43.0
45.9

.7
.6
.6
.5
.6
.6
1.0
1.8
2.0
2.2

7.6
5.8
3.6
3.3
4.7
5.5
6.7
7.2
6.9
7.4

6.8
5.1
3.3
3.9
4.8
5.5
6.8
7.2
6.7
7.6

.8
.6
.3
-.5

4.8
7.0
3.8
2.0
2.7 - 1 . 3
2.0 - 1 . 2
1.7
1.7
1.7
3.4
1.8
5.6
2.1
6.8
2.6
4.9
2.7
6.3

3.7

*
-.1
*
- . .2
2

4.3
3.4
2.1
2.6
3.0
5.3
4.3
6.0
4.4
4.4

-2.3
1.0
2.3
3.6
6.3
6.8
4.0
7.0

3.3
2.4
1.0
-2.1
-.6
-.2
-.7
*
- 1.0
.7

4.9
5.0
4.6
4.1
4.1
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5

81.1
104.2
137.1
170.3
182.6
181.5
181.9
199.0
224.2
217.5

52.1
64.8
85.3
109.5
121.2
123.1
117.9
128.9
141.1
141.0

49.8
62.1
82.1
105.8
116.7
117.5
112.0
123.0
135.4
134.5

2.3
2.7
3.2
3.8
4.5
5.6
5.9
5.9
5.8
6.5

8.6
11.1
14.0
17.0
18.2
19.2
21.6
20.3
22.7
22.6

8.6
11.7
14.4
17.1
18.3
19.3
23.3
21.8
23.1
22.2

*
-.6
-.4
-.2
-.1
-.1
-1.7
-1.5
-.4
.5

4.5
6.4
9.8
11.7
11.6
12.2
14.9
15.2
17.5
12.7

2.9
3.5
4.5
5.1
5.4
5.6
6.6
7.1
8.0
8.4

9.8
15.2
20.3
24.4
23.8
19.2
19.3
25.6
33.0
30.8

10.0
17.7
21.5
25.1
24.1
19.7
24.6
31.5
35.2
28.9

-.2
-2.5
-1.2
-.8
-.3
-.6
-5.3
-5.9
-2.2
1.9

3.3
3.2
3.1
2.7
2.3
2.2
1.5
1.9
1.8
1.9

241.1
278.0

146.8
171.1
185.1
198.3
196.5
211.3
227.8
238.7
239.9
258.2

7.8
9.6
10.2
10.9
11.5
13.2
15.2
17.3
17.9
20.9

24.0
26.1
27.1
27.5
27.6
30.3
31.3
32.8
33.2
35.1

25.1
26.5
26.9
27.6
27.6
30.5
31.8
33.1
33.2
35.3

-1.1
-.3

304.7
303.1
331.0
350.8
. . . 366.1
367.8
400.0

154.6
180.7
195.3
209.1
208.0
224.5
243.1
256.0
257.8
279.1

13.5
15.8
15.0
13.0
12.4
11.4
11.4
11.3
13.4
11.4

9.4
10.3
11.5
12.7
13.6
13.9
14.3
14.8
15.4
15.6

37.7
42.7
39.9
39.6
38.0
46.9
46.1
45.6
41.1
51.7

42.6
43.9
38.9
40.6
38.3
48.6
48.8
47.2
41.4
52.1

-5.0
-1.2
1.0
-1.0
-.3
-1.7
-2.7
-1.5
-.3
-.5

414.5
427.3
457.7
481.9
518.1
564.3
620 6
654.0
714.4
771.5

294.2
302.6
323.6
341.0
365.7
393.8
435 5
467.4
513.6
564.2

270.8
278.1
296.1
311.1
333.7
358.9
394.5
423.5
465.0
509.8

23.4
24.6
27.5
29.9
32.0
35.0
41.0
43.9
48.6
54.4

34.2
35.6
37.1
37.9
40.2
42.4
45.2
47.2
49.2
50.2

34.3
35.6
37.1
37.9
40.3
42.8
45.6
47.5
49.9
51.1

12.0
12.8
13.0
13.1
12.1
14.8
16.1
14.7
14.6
16.1

15.8
16.0
16.7
17.1
18.0
19.0
20.0
20.8
21.2
21.6

49.9
50.3
55.7
58.9
66.3
76.1
82.4
79.2
87.9
88.7

49.7
50.3
55.4
59.4
66.8
77.8
84.2
80.3
91.1
94.3

.2
-.1
.3
-.5
-~L7
-1.8
-1.1
-3.2
-5.6

2.0
2.3
2.6
2.8
3.6
4.1
4.6
5.6
6.8
7.1
8.4
10.0
11.6
13.8
15.8
18.2
21.4
24.7
28.0
30.6

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

...
..
.

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

. . . 291.4

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
...
1969 v

2
-.2
-.5
-.3
-.1
-.1
*
*
•
•
-.1
-.4
-.4
-.3
-.7
-.9

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967' 1

||
III
IV...

1968:1---

II

ML.
IV
1969: 1

II
III..
IV v

639.3
646 2
658.5
672.0

456.2
461 1
470.7
481.7

413.2
417.7
426.5
436.5

43.0
43 4
44.2
45.1

46.5
47 1
47.8
47.5

14.3
14.7
14.8
14.9

20.6
20.8
20.9
21.0

78.3
78.3
79.1
81.1

78.4
79.1
79.5
84.4

-0.1
-.7
-.4
-3.3

23.5
24.3
25.1
25.9

688.8
707.4
724.1
737 3

495.1
507.0
519.8
532 3

448.2
459.0
470.7
482 1

47.0
48.0
49.1
50 2

48.4
49.2
49.3
49 7

14.8
14.3
14.8
14.4

21.1
21.2
21.2
21.4

82.5
88.2
90.6
90.3

87.9
90.7
91.5
94.5

-5.3
-2.6
-.9
-4.2

26.7
27.5
28.4
29.3

751.3 546.0
765 7 558 2
780.6 571.9
580.9

493.3
504 3
516.9
524 8

52.7
53 8
55.0
56 1

49.7
50 1
50.5
50 4

14.9
16.4
16.8
16.3

21.5
21.6
21.7
21.8

89.5
89.2
88.8

95.5
95.4
92.5

-6.1
-6.2
-3.7
-6.4

29.8
30.3
30.9
31.6

» National income is the total net income earned in production. It differs from gross national product mainly in that it
excludes depreciation charges and other allowances for business and institutional consumption of durable capital goods,
and indirect business taxes. See Table C 13.
> Employer contributions for social insurance and to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for
injuries; directors' fees; pay of the military reserve; and a few other minor items.
3
Includes change in inventories.
< See Table C-71 for corporate tax liability and profits after taxes.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




TABLE C-13.—Relation of gross national product and national income, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars]

Year or quarter

Gross
national
product

Less:
Capital
consumption
allowances

Equals:
Net
national
product

Plus:
Subsidies
less
current
surplus
of government
enterprises

Less:
Indirect business taxes

Total

Federal

State
and
local

Business
transfer
payments

Statistical
discrepancy

Equals:
National
income

1929..

103.1

7.9

95.2

-0.1

7.0

1.2

5.8

0.6

0.7

86.8

1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..
1935..
1936..
1937..
1938..
1939..

90.4
75.8
58.0
55.6
65.1
72.2
82.5
90.4
84.7
90.5

8.0
7.9
7.4
7.0
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.2
7.3
7.3

82.4
68.0
50.7
48.6
58.2
65.4
75.4
83.3
77.4
83.2

-.1

7.2
6.9
6.8
7.1
7.8
8.2
8.7
9.2
9.2
9.4

1.0
.9
.9
1.6
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.3

6.1
6.0
5.8
5.4
5.6
6.0
6.4
6.8
6.9
7.0

.5
.6
.7
.7
.6
.6
.6
.6
.4
.5

75.4
59.7
42.8
40.3
49.5
57.2
65.0
73.6
67.4
72.6

1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..

99.7
124.5
157.9
191.6
210.1
211.9
208.5
231.3
257.6
256.5

7.5
8.2
9.8
10.2
11.0
11.3
9.9
12.2
14.5
16.6

92.2
116.3
148.1
181.3
199.1
200.7
198.6
219.1
243.1
239.9

10.0
11.3
11.8
12.7
14.1
15.5
17.1
18.4
20.1
21.3

2.6
3.6
4.0
4.9
6.2
7.1
7.8
7.8
8.0
8.0

7.4
7.7
7.7
7.8
8.0
8.4
9.3
10.6
12.1
13.3

.4
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.6
.7
.8

-.8
.7
.3
.6
.5
-.2
1.2
*
.6
1.3
1.0
.4
-1.1
-2.0
2.5
3.9

1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.

284.8
328.4
345.5
364.6
364.8
398.0
419.2
441.1
447.3
483.7

18.3
21.2
23.2
25.7
28.2
31.5
34.1
37.1
38.9
41.4

266.4
307.2
322.3
338.9
336.6
366.5
385.2
404.0
408.4
442.3

23.3
25.2
27.6
29.6
29.4
32.1
34.9
37.3
38.5
41.5

8.9
9.4
10.3
10.9
9.7
10.7
11.2
11.8
11.5
12.5

14.5
15.8
17.3
18.7
19.7
21.4
23.6
25. £
27.0
28.9

.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7

1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965—
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969 v_

503.7
520.1
560.3
590.5
632.4
684.9
749.9
793.5
865.7
932.3

43.4
45.2
50.0
52.6
56.1
59.8
63.9
68.6
73.3
77.9

460.3
474.9
510.4
537.9
576.3
625.1
685.9
725.0
792.4
854.4

45.2
47.7
51.5
54.7
58.4
62.5
65.7
70.1
77.9
86.6

13.5
13.6
14.6
15.3
16.1
16.5
15.7
16.3
18.0
18.8

31.7
34.1
36.9
39.4
42.3
45.9
49.9
53.8
59.9
67.8

1.9
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6

-1.0
-.8
.5
-.3
-1.3
-3.1
-1.0
-1.0
-2.5
-6.2

414.5
427.3
457.7
481.9
518.1
564.3
620.6
654.0
714.4
7(71.5

.9
.9
.2
1.4
1.4
.8
1.3
1.3
2.3
1.4
.8
1.1

-2.0

.3

1.5
3.3
2.2
3.0
2.7
2.1
-1.1
1.6

81.1
104.2
137J
170.3
182.6
181.5
181.9
199.0
224.2
217.5
241.1
278.0
291.4
304.7
303.1
331.0
350.8
366.1
367.8
400.0

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967: I . . .
II...
III.
IV..

774.2
783.5
800.4
816.1

66.8
67.9
69.2
70.4

707.4
715.6
731.2
745.7

1.7
1.2
1.4
1.2

67.9
69.2
70.8
72.7

15.9
16.2
16.5
16.7

52.0
53.0
54.3
55.9

3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3

-1.2
-1.7
.1
-1.1

639.3
646.2
658.5
672.0

1968: I . . .
II...
III..
IV..

835.3
858.7
876.4
892.5

71.7
73.0
73.7
74.6

763.6
785.6
802.6
817.9

.6
.7
1.1
.9

73.9
77.0
79.4
81.4

17.4
17.9
18.3
18.5

56.5
59.2
61.1
62.9

3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5

-1.8
-1.6
-3.3
-3.4

688.8
707.4
724.1
737.3

1969: I . . .
II...
III..
IV p.

908.7
924.8
942.8
953.1

75.9
77.2
78.6
79.9

832.8
847.6
864.2
873.2

1.1
.9
1.1
1.3

83.3
85.7
88.0
89.3

18.5
18.6
19.1
18.9

64.8
67.1
68.9
70.4

3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6

-4.2
-6.5
-6.9

751.3
765.7
780.6

Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




192

T A B L E G-14.—Relation of national income and personal income, 1929—69
[Billions of dollars]

Corporate
profits
and inventory
valuation
adjustment

National
income

Year or quarter

Equals:

Plus:

Less:

GovContri- Wage
butions accruals ernment
transfer
less
for
payments
dissocial
insur- burse- to persons
ments
ance

Interest
paid
by
governDividends
ment
(net)
and by
consumers

Business
transfer Persona
income
payments

1929

86.8

10.5

0.2

00

0.9

2.5

5.8

0.6

85.9

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

75.4
59.7
42.8
40.3
49.5
57.2
65.0
73.6
67.4
72.6

70
2.0
-1.3
-1 2
1.7
3.4
5.6
68
4.9
6.3

3
.3
.3
3
.3
.3
.6
18
2.0
2.1

0
0
.0
0
0
.0
.0
0
.0
.0

1.0
2.1
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.9
1.9
2.4
2.5

1.8
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.9

5.5
4.1
2.5
2.0
2.6
2.8
4.5
4.7
3.2
3.8

.5
.6
.7
.7
.6
.6
.6
.6
.4
.5

77.0
65.9
50.2
47.0
54.0
60.4
68.6
74.1
68.3
72.8

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

81.1
104.2
137.1
170.3
182.6
181 5
181.9
199.0
224.2
217.5

98
15.2
20.3
24 4
23 8
19.2
19 3
25 6
33.0
30.8

23
2.8
3.5
45
5.2
6.1
60
57
5.2
5.7

.0
.0
.0
-.2
.0
0
.0
.0
.0

2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
3.1
5.6
10.8
11.1
10.5
11.6

2.1
2.2
2.2
2.6
3.3
4.2
5.2
5.5
6.1
6.5

4.0
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2

.4
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.6
.7
.8

78.3
96.0
122.9
151.3
165.3
171.1
178.7
191.3
210.2
207.2

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956 .
1957
1958
1959

241.1
278.0
291.4
304.7
303.1
331.0
350.8
366.1
367.8
400,0

37.7
42 7
39.9
39.6
38 0
46.9
46.1
45 6
41.1
51.7

6.9
82
8.7
8.8
98
11.1
12.6
14 5
14.8
17.6

.0
1
.0
-.1
0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

14.3
11.5
12.0
12.8
14.9
16.1
17.1
19.9
24.1
24.9

7.2
7.6
8.1
9.0
9.5
10.1
11.2
12.0
12.1
13.6

8.8
8.6
8.6
8.9
9.3
10.5
11.3
11.7
11.6
12.6

.8
.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7

227.6
255.6
272.5
288.2
290.1
310.9
333.0
351.1
361.2
383.5

414.5
427.3
457.7
481.9
518.1
564.3
620.6
654.0
714.4
771.5

49.9
50.3
55 7
58.9
66.3
76.1
82.4
79 2
87.9
88.7

20.7
21.4
24.0
26.9
27.9
29.6
38.0
42.4
47.0
54.4

.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

26.6
30.4
31.2
33.0
34.2
37.2
41.1
48.8
55.8
61.9

15.1
15.0
16.1
17.6
19,1
20.5
22.2
23.6
26.1
28.7

13.4
13.8
15.2
16.5
17.8
19.8
20.8
21.5
23.1
24.6

1.9
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6

401.0
416.8
442.6
465.5
497.5
538.9
587.2
629.4
687.9
747.1

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969P

.

...

- -

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967: 1
II.
Ill
IV _

639.3
646.2
658.5
672.0

78.3
78.3
79 1
81.1

41.1
42.0
42 8
43.7

0.0
.0
.0
.0

47.6
48.4
49.0
50.0

23.4
23.0
23.6
24.3

21.1
21.7
22.0
21.1

3.1
3.2
32
3.3

615.2
622.2
634.5
645.9

1968: L
II
III
IV

688.8
707.4
724.1
737.3

82.5
88 2
90.6
90.3

45.4
46 5
47.6
48.6

.0

52.9
55 3
56.7
58.1

25.0
25 7
26.4
27.4

22.2
22 9
23.6
23.8

3.3
34
3.4
3.5

664.3
680 1
696.1
711.2

1969: 1
II
III
IV P

751.3
765.7
780.6

89.5
89.2
88 8

52.7
53.8
55 1
56.1

.0
.0

60.1
61.3
62 5
63.6

27.9
28.5
28 9
29.5

23.8
24.3
24 9
25.2

3.5
3.6
36
3.6

724.4
740.5
756 5
766.9

o
.0
.0
o
.0

i

Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




193

TABLE C-15.—Disposition of personal income, 1929-69
Percent of disposable
personal income

Less: Personal outlays

Year or
quarter

Personal
income

Less:
Personal
tax
and
nontax
payments

Equals:
Disposable
personal
income

Total

PerPerEquals:
sonal Interest sonal
Percontransfer sonal
sump- paid by
paysaving
contion
ments
expend- sumers to foreigners
itures

Personal
outlays

Total

Billions of dollars

Consumption
expenditures

Personal
saving

Percent

1929.

85.9

2.6

83.3

79.1

77.2

1.5

0.3

4.2

95.0

92.7

5.0

1930....
1931....
1932....
1933 ...
1934....
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

77.0
65.9
50.2
47.0
54.0
60.4
68.6
74.1
68.3
72.8

2.5
1.9
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.9
2.3
2.9
2.9
2.4

74.5
64.0
48.7
45.5
52.4
58.5
66.3
71.2
65.5
70.3

71.1
61.4
49.3
46.5
52.0
56.4
62.7
67.4
64.8
67.7

69.9
60.5
48.6
45.8
51.3
55.7
61.9
66.5
63.9
66.8

.9
.7
.5
.5
.5
.5
.6
.7
.7
.7

.3
.3
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2

3.4
2.6
-.6
-.9
.4
2.1
3.6
3.8
.7
2.6

95.4
95.9
101.3
102.0
99.3
96.3
94.6
94.7
98.9
96.3

93.8
94.4
99.8
100.6
98.0
95.2
93.3
93.4
97.6
95.0

4.6
4.1
-1.3
-2.0
.7
3.7
5.4
5.3
1.1
3.7

1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..

78.3
96.0
122.9
151.3
165.3
171.1
178.7
191.3
210.2
207.2

2.6
3.3
6.0
17.8
18.9
20.9
18.7
21.4
21.1
18.6

75.7
92.7
116.9
133.5
146.3
150.2
160.0
169.8
189.1
188.6

71.8
81.7
89.3
100.1
109.1
120.7
144.8
162.5
175.8
179.2

70.8
80.6
88.5
99.3
108.3
119.7
143.4
160.7
173.6
176.8

.8
.9
.7
.5
.5
.5
.8
1.1
1.5
1.9

.2
.2
.1
.2
.4
.5
.7
.7
.7
.5

3.8
11.0
27.6
33.4
37.3
29.6
15.2
7.3
13.4
9.4

94.9
88.2
76.4
75.0
74.5
80.3
90.5
95.7
92.9
95.0

93.6
86.9
75.7
74.4
74.0
79.7
89.6
94.6
91.8
93.8

5.1
11.8
23.6
25.0
25.5
19.7
9.5
4.3
7.1
5.0

1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..

227.6
255.6
272.5
288.2
290.1
310.9
333.0
351.1
361.2
383.5

20.7
29.0
34.1
35.6
32.7
35.5
39.8
42.6
42.3
46.2

206.9
226.6
238.3
252.6
257.4
275.3
293.2
308.5
318.8
337.3

193.9
209.3
220.2
234.3
241.0
259.5
272.6
287.8
296.6
318.3

191.0
206.3
216.7
230.0
236.5
254.4
266.7
281.4
290.1
311.2

2.4
2.7
3.0
3.8
4.0
4.7
5.4
5.8
5.9
6.5

.5
.4
.4
.5
.5
.5
.6
.6
.6
.6

13.1
17.3
18.1
18.3
16.4
15.8
20.6
20.7
22.3
19.1

93.7
92.4
92.4
92.8
93.6
94.3
93.0
93.3
93.0
94.4

92.3
91.0
90.9
91.1
91.9
92.4
91.0
91.2
91.0
92.3

6.3
7.6
7.6
7.2
6.4
5.7
7.0
6.7
7.0
5.6

I960....
1961
1962
1963
1964....
1965....
1966
1967
1968
1969 v

401.0
416.8
442.6
465.5
497.5
538.9
587.2
629.4
687.9
747.1

50.9
52.4
57.4
60.9
59.4
65.7
75.4
82.9
97.9
117.5

350.0
364.4
385.3
404.6
438.1
473.2
511.9
546.5
590.0
629.6

333.0
343.3
363.7
384.7
411.9
444.8
479.3
506.2
551.6
592.0

325.2
335.2
355.1
375.0
401.2
432.8
466.3
492.3
536.6
576.0

7.3
7.6
8.1
9.1
10.1
11.3
12.4
13.1
14.2
15.3

.5
.5
.5
.6
.6
.7
.6
.8
.8
.7

17.0
21.2
21.6
19.9
26.2
28.4
32.5
40.4
38.4
37.6

95.1
94.2
94.4
95.1
94.0
94.0
93.6
92.6
93.5
94.0

92.9
92.0
92.2
92.7
91.6
91.5
91.1
90.1
91.0
91.5

4.9
5.8
5.6
4.9
6.0
6.0
6.4
7.4
6.5
6.0

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967: I..
II...
ML.
IV...

615.2
622.2
634.5
645.9

80.8
80.6
84.1
86.1

534.4
541.6
550.3
559.8

494.5
503.9
509.7
516.6

480.9
489.8
495.7
502.6

12.9
13.0
13.2
13.4

0.6
1.1
.7
.6

40.0
37.7
40.7
43.1

92.5
93.0
92.6
92.3

90.0
90.4
90.1
89.8

7.5
7.0
7.4
7.7

1968: I...
II..
III..
IV..

664.3
680.1
696.1
711.2

89.3
92.7
102.6
107.0

575.0
587.4
593.4
604.3

535.1
545.1
560.2
566.2

520.6
530.3
544.9
550.7

13.7
14.0
14.4
14.7

.7
.7
.8
.7

39.9
42.3
33.2
38.0

93.1
92.8
94.4
93.7

90.5
90.3
91.8
91.1

6.9
7.2
5.6
6.3

1969: I...

724.4
740.5
756.5
766.9

114.2
118.5
117.5
119.8

610.2
622.0
639.0
647.1

577.7
588.8
596.0
605.5

562.0
572.8
579.8
589.2

15.0
15.2
15.4
15.5

.7
.7
.8
.7

32.5
33.3
43.1
41.6

94.7
94.7
93.3
93.6

92.1
92.1
90.7
91.1

5.3
5.3
6.7
6.4

IV p.

Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




194

TABLE C-16.—Total

and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption
expenditures, in current and 1958 prices, 1929—69
Personal consumption expenditures

Disposable personal income
Year or quarter

Total (billions
of dollars)

Per capita
(dollars)

Total (billions
of dollars)

Per capita
(dollars)

Current
prices

1958
prices

1,236

77.2

139.6

634

1,145

121,875

1,128
1,077
921
893
952
1,035
1,158
1,187
1,105
1,190

69.9
60.5
48.6
45.8
51.3
55.7
61.9
66.5
63.9
66.8

130.4
126.1
114.8
112.8
118.1
125.5
138.4
143.1
140.2
148.2

567
487
389
364
406
437
483
516
492
510

1,059
1,016
919
897
934
985
1,080
1,110
1,079
1,131

123,188
124,149
124,949
125,690
126,485
127,362
128,181
128,961
129,969
131,028

573
695
867
976
1,057
1,074
1,132
1,178
1,290
1,264

1,259
1,427
1,582
1,629
1,673
1,642
1,606
1,513
1,567
1,547

70.8
80.6
88.5
99.3
108.3
119.7
143.4
160.7
173.6
176.8

155.7
165.4
161.4
165.8
171.4
183.0
203.5
206.3
210.8
216.5

536
604
656
726
782
855
1,014
1,115
1,184
1,185

1,178
1,240
1,197
1,213
1,238
1,308
1,439
1,431
1,438
1,451

132,122
133,402
134,860
136,739
138,397
139,928
141,389
144,126
146,631
149,188

249.6
255.7
263.3
275.4
278.3
296.7
309.3
315.8
318.8
333.0

1,364
1,469
1,518
1,583
1,585
1,666
1,743
1,801
1,831
1,905

1,646
1,657
1,678
1,726
1,714
1,795
1,839
1,844
1,831
1,881

191.0
206.3
216.7
230.0
236.5
254.4
266.7
281.4
290.1
311.2

230.5
232.8
239.4
250.8
255.7
274.2
281.4
288.2
290.1
307.3

1,259
1,337
1,381
1,441
1,456
1,539
1,585
1,643
1,666
1,758

1,520
1,509
1,525
1,572
1,575
1,659
1,673
1,683
1,666
1,735

151,684
154,287
156,954
159,565
162,391
165,275
168,221
171,274
174,141
177,073

340.2
350.7
367.3
381.3
407.9
435.0
458.9
477.7
497.6
509.4

1,937
1,983
2,064
2,136
2,280
2,432
2,599
2,745
2,933
3,098

1,883
1,909
1,968
2,013
2,123
2,235
2,331
2,399
2,474
2,507

325.2
335.2
355.1
375.0
401.2
432.8
466.3
492.3
536.6
576.0

316.1
322.5
338.4
353.3
373.7
397.7
418.1
430.3
452.6
466.0

1,800
1,824
1,902
1,980
2,088
2,224
2,368
2,472
2,668
2,834

1,749
1,755
1,813
1,865
1,945
2,044
2,123
2,161
2,250
2,293

180,684
183,756
186.656
189,417
192,120
194,592
196,907
199,114
201,152
203,216

Current
prices

1958
prices

Current
prices

1929..

83.3

150.6

683

19301931-.
1932.1933..
1934..
1935..
1936.1937..
1938..
1939.-

74.5
64.0
48.7
45.5
52.4
58.5
66.3
71.2
65.5
70.3

139.0
133.7
115.1
112.2
120.4
131.8
148.4
153.1
143.6
155.9

605
516
390
362
414
459
518
552
504
537

1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..

75.7
92.7
116.9
133.5
146.3
150.2
160.0
169.8
189.1
188.6

166.3
190.3
213.4
222.8
231.6
229.7
227.0
218.0
229.8
230.8

1950.1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..

206.9
226.6
238.3
252.6
257.4
275.3
293.2
308.5
318.8
337.3

I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969 v.

350.0
364.4
385.3
404.6
438.1
473.2
511.9
546.5
590.0
629.6

1958
prices

Current
prices

Population
(thousands) i

1958
prices

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967: I . . .
II...
III..
IV..

534.4
541.6
550.3
559.8

471.6
476.0
479.4
483.7

2,694
2,724
2,760
2,799

2,378
2,394
2,404
2,419

480.9
489.8
495.7
502.6

424.4
430.5
431.9
434.3

2,425
2,463
2,486
2,513

2,140
2,165
2,166
2,172

198,349
198,845
199,417
199, 996

1968: I . . .
II...
III..
IV..

575.0
587.4
593.4
604.3

492.1
497.4
498.9
502.1

2,869
2,924
2,946
2,991

2,455
2,476
2,477
2,485

520.6
530.3
544.9
550.7

445.6
449.0
458.2
457.6

2,597
2,640
2,705
2,726

2,223
2,235
2,275
2,265

200,425
200,899
201,450
202,015

1969: I . . .
II...
III.
IV»».

610.2
622.0
639.0
647.1

502.6
506.2
514.1
514.5

3,014
3,065
3,140
3,171

2,482
2,494
2,526
2,521

562.0
572.8
579.8
589.2

462.9
466.2
466.5
468.5

2,776
2,822
2,849
2,887

2,286
2,297
2,292
2,295

202,472
202,964
203,507
204,093

i Population of the United States including Armed Forces overseas; includes Alaska and Hawaii beginning 1960.
Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census) and Council of Economic
Advisers.




195

TABLE C-17.—Sources of personal income, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars]

Wage and salary disbursementsl
Total
personal
income

Year or quarter

Commodityproducing
industries
Total
Total

Manufacturing

Distrib- Service
utive
indus- industries
tries

Propri e tors'
income

Government

Other
labor
income 1

Business
and
professional

Farm 2

1929

85.9

50.4

21.5

16.1

15.6

8.4

4.9

0.6

9.0

6.2

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939 . .

77.0
65.9
50.2
47.0
54.0
60.4
68.6
74.1
68.3
72.8

46.2
39.1
30.5
29.0
•33.7
36.7
41.9
46.1
43.0
45.9

18.5
14.3
9.9
9.8
12.1
13.5
15.8
18.4
15.3
17.4

13.8
10.8
7.7
7.8
9.6
10.8
12.4
14.6
11.8
13.6

14.5
12.5
98
8.8
9.9
10.7
11.8
13.2
12.6
13.3

8.0
7.1
5.8
5.2
5.7
5.9
6.5
7.1
6.8
7.1

5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
6.1
6.5
7.9
7.5
8.2
8.2

.6
'5
.4
.4
.5
.6
.6
6
.6

7 6
5.8
3 6
33
4.7
5.5
6.7
7.2
"69
.7.4

43
3.4
21
2 6
3.0
5.3
4.3
6.0
4 4
4.4

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

78.3
96.0
122.9
151.3
165.3
171.1
178.7
191.3
210.2
207.2

49.8
62.1
82.1
105.6
116.9
117.5
112.0
123.0
135.3
134.6

19.7
27.5
39.1
48.9
50.3
45.8
46.0
54.3
61.0
57.7

15.6
21.7
30.9
40.9
42.9
38.2
36.5
42.5
47.2
44.7

14.2
16.3
18.0
20.1
22.7
24.8
31.0
35.2
37.6
37.7

7.5
8.1
9.0
9.9
10.9
12.0
14.4
16.1
17.9
18.6

8.4
10.2
16.0
26.6
33.0
34.9
20.7
17.4
18.9
20.6

.7
.7
.9
1.1
1.5
1.8
1.9
2.3
2.7
3.0

8 6
11.1
14.0
17 0
18.2
19.2
21.6
20.3
22.7
22.6

4 5
6.4
9.8
11 7
11.6
12.2
14.9
15.2
17 5
12.7

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1955
1957
1958
1959

227.6
255.6
272.5
288.2
290.1
310.9
333.0
351.1
361.2
383.5

146.7
171.0
185.1
198.3
196.5
211.3
227.8
238.7
239.9
258.2

64.6
76.1
81.8
89.4
85.4
92.8
100.2
103.8
99.7
109.1

50.3
59.4
64.2
71.2
67.6
73.9
79.5
82.5
78.7
86.9

39.9
44.3
46.9
49.8
50.2
53.4
57.7
60.5
60 8
64.8

19.9
21.7
23.3
25.1
26.4
28.9
31.6
33.9
35.9
38.7

22.4
28.9
33.1
34.1
34.6
36.2
38.3
40.4
43.5
45.6

3.8
4.8
5.3
6.0
6.3
7.3
8.4
9.5
9 9
11.3

24.0
26.1
27.1
27.5
27 6
30.3
31.3
32.8
33 2
35.1

13.5
15.8
15 0
13.0
12 4
11 4
11 4
11 3
13 4
1L4

I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968

401.0
416.8
442.6
465.5
497.5
538.9
587.2
629.4
687.9
747.1

270.8
278.1
296.1
311.1
333.7
358.9
394.5
423.5
465.0
509.8

112.5
112.8
120.8
125.7
134.1
144.5
159.3
166.5
181.5
197.7

89.7
89.8
96.7
100.6
107.2
115.6
128.1
134.2
145.9
157.5

68.1
69.1
72.5
76.0
81.2
86.9
93.8
100.3
109.2
119.5

41.5
44.0
46.8
49.9
54.1
58.3
63.7
70.5
78.3
88.1

48.7
52.2
56.0
59.5
64.3
69.3
77.7
86.2
96.0
104.5

12.0
12.7
13.9
14.9
16.6
18.7
20.7
22.1
24.2
26.2

34.2
35 6
37.1
37.9
40.2
42.4
45.2
47.2
49.2
50.2

12.0
12 8
13.0
13.1
12.1
14 8
16.1
14.7
14.6
16.1

.

1969P

-

-

.

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967' 1 - II .
III.
IV

615.2
622.2
634.5
645.9

413.2
417.7
426.5
436.5

164.5
163.9
167.2
170.6

132.3
132.3
134.6
137.4

97.9
99.4
101.0
102.7

67.8
69.7
71.4
72.9

83.0
84.7
86.9
90.3

21.8
21.9
22.3
22.6

46.5
47.1
47.8
47.5

14.3
14.7
14.8
14.9

1968* 1
II
III
IV

664.3
680.1
696.1
711.2

448.2
459.0
470.7
482.1

175.7
179.3
183.0
187.8

141.2
144.2
147.4
150.7

105.1
107.9
110.8
113.1

75.1
77.3
78.9
82.0

92.3
94.5
97.9
99.2

23.4
23.9
24.5
25.0

48.4
49.2
49.3
49.7

14.8
14.3
14.8
14.4

1969: I . .
II
III
IV v

724.4
740.5
756.5
766.9

493.3
504.3
516.9
524.8

191.5
196.5
200.5
202.1

153.3
156.6
159.9
160.3

115.5
118.3
121.1
123.2

85.4
87.1
88.7
91.2

100.8
102.4
106.6
108.4

25.5
26.0
26.4
26.9

49.7
50.1
50.5
50.4

14.9
16.4
16.8
16.3

See footnotes at end of table.




I96

TABLE C—17.—Sources of personal income, 1929—69—Continued
[Billions of dollars]
Transfer payments
Rental
income Diviof per- dends
sons

Year or
quarter

Personal
interest
income

Old-age,
survivors,
disability,
Total and health
insurance
benefits

State
unemployment insurance
benefits

Veterans'
benefits

Less:
Personal
contributions
Other for social
insurance

Nonagricultural
personal
income3

1929

5.4

5.8

7.2

1.5

0.6

0.9

0.1

77.6

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

4.8
3.8
2.7
2.0
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.6
2.7

5.5
4.1
2.5
2.0
2.6
2.8
4.5
4.7
3.2
3.8

6.8
6.7
6.3
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.5

1.5
2.7
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.4
3.5
2.4
2.8
3.0

*
*
*

*
0.4
.4

.6
1.6
.8
.5
.4
.5
1.9
.6
.5
.5

.9
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.0

.1
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.6
.6
.6

70.8
60.8
46.7
43.2
49.8
53.9
63.0
66.7
62.6
66.9

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

2.9
3.5
4.5
5.1
5.4
5.6
6.6
7.1
8.0
8.4

4.0
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2

5.4
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.6
6.3
6.8
7.5
7.9
8.5

3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.6
6.2
11.3
11.7
11.2
12.4

*
0.1
.1
.2
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7

.5
.3
.3
.1
.1
.4
1.1
.8
.8
*1.7

.5
.5
.5
.5
.9
2.8
6.7
6.7
5.8
5.1

2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.1
3.7
4.1
4.9

.7
.8
1.2
1.8
2.2
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2

72.3
87.8
111.0
137.3
151.2
156.4
161.0
173.0
189.4
191.3

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

9.4
10.3
11.5
12.7
13.6
13.9
14.3
14.8
15.4
15.6

8.8
8.6
8.6
8.9
9.3
10.5
11.3
11.7
11.6
12.6

9.2
9.9
10.6
11.8
13.1
14.2
15.7
17.6
18.9
20.7

15.1
12.5
13.0
14.0
16.0
17.3
18.5
21.4
25.7
26.6

1.0
1.9
2.2
3.0
3.6
4.9
5.7
7.3
8.5
10.2

1.4
.8
1.0
1.0
2.0
1.4
1.4
1.8
3.9
2.5

4.9
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.9
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6

7.9
5.9
6.0
6.3
6.5
6.8
7.2
7.9
8.7
9.4

2.9
3.4
3.8
4.0
4.6
5.2
5.8
6.7
6.9
7.9

210.9
236.4
254.1
271.9
274.7
296.4
318.5
336.6
344.3
368.5

15.8
16.0
16.7
17.1
18.0
19.0
20.0
20.8
21.2
21.6

13.4
13.8
15.2
16.5
17.8
19.8
20.8
21.5
23.1
24.6

23.4
25.0
27.7
31.4
34.9
38.7
43.6
48.3
54.1
59.3

28.5
32.4
33.3
35.3
36.7
39.9
44.1
52.0
59.2
65.5

11.1
12.6
14.3
15.2
16.0
18.1
20.8
25.7
30.3
33.1

2.8
4.0
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.2
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1

4.6
4.8
4.8
5.0
5.3
5.6
5.7
6.6
7.2
8.2

10.0
10.9
11.2
12.2
12.9
14.0
15.7
17.6
19.7
22.0

9.3
9.6
10.3
11.8
12.5
13.4
17.7
20.6
22.6
26.2

385.2
400.0
425.5
448.1
480.9
519.5
566.3
609.7
667.9
725.1

-. .

I960
1961
1962
.
1963
1964
1965 _
1966
1967. .
1968
1969 v

..

..

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967: L. .
II
III
IV

20.6
20.8
20.9
21.0

21.1
21.7
22.0
21.1

46.8
47.3
48.7
50.2

50.7
51.6
52.2
53.3

24.5
25.8
26.0
26.4

2.1
2.1
2.2
2.0

6.5
6.5
6.5
6.8

17.7
17.1
17.5
18.1

19.8
20.4
20.8
21.2

595.8
602.5
614.5
625.8

1968: 1
II
III
IV

21.1
21.2
21.2
21.4

22.2
22.9
23.6
23.8

51.7
53.2
54.8
56.7

56.3
58.7
60.1
61.6

28.2
30.3
30.9
31.8

2.2
1.9
2.1
2.0

7.1
7.2
7.1
7.3

18.9
19.4
20.0
20.5

21.8
22.4
22.9
23.3

644.1
660.4
675.7
691.2

1969: 1
II
III....
IV p . . . .

21.5
21.6
21.7
21.8

23.8
24.3
24.9
25.2

57.6
58.8
59.8
61.1

63.6
64.9
66.1
67.2

32.4
32.9
33.3
33.7

2.2
1.9
2.2
2.2

7.8
8.2
8.4
8.6

21.3
21.9
22.2
22.6

25.4
25.9
26.6
27.0

703.7
718.2
733.9
744.7

1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees in
Table C-12 in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage
disbursements.
2 Includes change in inventories.
3
Nonagricultural-income is personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages,
agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




197

TABLE G-18.—Sources and uses of gross saving, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars]
Gross private saving and government surplus or deficit,
national income and product accounts
Government surplus
or deficit ( - )

Private saving

Year or quarter
Total

Gross investment

Total

Personal
saving

Gross
business
saving

Total

Federal

State
and
local

Total

Gross
private
domestic investment

Net
foreign
investment i

Statistical
discrepancy

1929

16.3

15.3

4.2

11.2

1.0

1.2

-0.2

17.0

16.2

0.8

0.7

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

11.8
5 1
.8
.9
3.2
6.6
7.2
11.9
7.0
8.8

12.1
8.0
2.5
2.3
5.6
8.6
10.3
11.5
8.7
11.0

3.4
2.6
-.6
-.9
.4
2.1
3.6
3.8
.7
2.6

8.6
5.3
3.2
3.2
5.2
6.4
6.7
7.7
8.0
8.4

-2^9
-1.8
-1.4
-2.4
-2.0
-3.1
.3
-1.8
-2.2

.3
-2.1
-1.5
-1.3
-2.9
-2.6
-3.6
-.4
-2.1
-2.2

-.6
-.8
-.3
~!5
.6
.5
.7
.4
2
()

11.0
58
1 i
1.6
3.8
6.4
8.4
11 8
7.6
10.2

10.3
5 6
1 0
1.4
3.3
6.4
8.5
11 8
6.5
9.3

.7
2
2
.2
.4
-.1
-.1
1
1.1
.9

-.8
7
3
.6
.5
-.2
1.2
*
.6
1.3

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

13.6
18.6
10.7
5.5
2.5
5.2
35.1
42.0
49 9
35.9

14.3
22.4
42.0
49.7
54.3
44.7
29.7
27.5
41.4
39.0

3.8
11.0
27.6
33.4
37.3
29.6
15.2
7.3
13.4
9.4

10.5
11.4
14.5
16.3
17.1
15.1
14.5
20.2
28.0
29.7

-.7
-3.8
-31.4
-44.1
-51.8
-39.5
5.4
14.4
8.5
-3.2

-1.3
-5.1
-33.1
-46.6
-54.5
-42.1
3.5
13.4
8.4
-2.4

.6
1.3
1.8
2.5
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.0
.1
-.7

14 6
19.0
9.6
3.5
5 0
9 1
35.2
42.9
47 9
36.2

13 1
17 9
9.8
5.7
7 1
10 6
30.6
34.0
46 0
35.7

15
1 l
-.2
-2.2
—2 1
-1 4
4.6
8.9
1 9
.5

10
4
-1.1
-2.0
25
3 9
.1
.9
—2 0
.3

50.4
56.1
49.5
47.5
48.5
64 8
72.7
71.2
59.2
73.8

42.5
50.3
53.3
54.4
55.6
62.1
67.8
70.5
71.7
75.9

13.1
17.3
18.1
18.3
16.4
15.8
20.6
20.7
22.3
19.1

29.4
9.1
7.8
5.8
6.2
33.1
35.1 - 3 . 8 - 3 . 8
36.1 - 6 . 9 - 7 . 0
39.2 - 7 . 0 - 5 . 9
2.7
4.0
46.3
4.9
5.7
47.3
.7
2.1
49.8
49.4 - 1 2 . 5 - 1 0 . 2
56.8 - 2 . 1 - 1 . 2

-1.2
-.4

51.8
59.5
51 6
50.5
51.3
66 9
71.6
71.2
60.7
73.0

54.1
59.3
51.9
52.6
51.7
67 4
70.0
67.8
60.9
75.3

-2.2
.2
- 3
-2.1
-.5
- 5
1.5
3.4
-.2
-2.3

1.5
3 3
2 2
30
2.7
2 1
-1 1

77.5
75.5
85.0
90.5
101.0
115.3
124.9
119.2
128.4
145.2

73.9
79.8
87.9
88.7
102.4
113.1
123.8
133.7
135.1
136.2

17.0
21.2
21.6
19.9
26.2
28.4
32.5
40.4
38.4
37.6

56.8
3.5
3.7
58.7 - 4 . 3 - 3 . 8
66.3 - 2 . 9 - 3 . 8
68.8
1.8
76.2 - 1 . 4 - 3 . 0
84.7
2.2
1.2
-.2
1.1
91.3
93.3 - 1 4 . 5 - 1 2 . 7
96.7 - 6 . 7 - 5 . 2
98.6
9.0
9.7

.2
-.5
.9
1.2
1.7
1.0
1.3
-1.8
-1.5

76.5
74.7
85.5
90.3
99.7
112.2
123.9
118.3
125.9
139.0

74.8
71.7
83.0
87.1
94.0
108.1
121.4
116.0
126.3
139.6

1.7
3.0
2.5
3.1
5.7
4.1
2.4
2.2
-.3
-.6

-1.0
— 8
-*3
-1.3
-3 1
-1.0
-1.0
-2.5
-6.2

.

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969*

(3)

1
-1.1
-1.3
-.9
-1.4
-2.3
-.8

1.6
-.8

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967: L_ _ ._._ 117.5
II
113.6
III
119.9
IV
125.6

131.6
129.6
134.5
139.0

40.0
37.7
40.7
43.1

91.6
91.9
93.8
95.9

-14.1
-16.0
-14.6
-13.4

-12.0
-13.2
-13.4
-12.3

-2.1
-2.8
-1.3
-1.0

116.3
112.0
120.0
124.5

113.6
109.4
117.7
123.3

2.7
2.5
2.3
1.3

-1.2
-1.7
.1
-1.1

1968: L
II
III
IV

120.5
128.8
129.1
135.4

132.0
139.6
132.6
136.3

39.9
42.3
33.2
38.0

92.1 - 1 1 . 5
97.2 - 1 0 . 8
99.3 - 3 . 5
98.3
-.9

-8.4
-9.5
-2.8
-.1

-3.1
-1.3
-.7
-.8

118.7
127.2
125.8
132.0

119.4
126.6
125.2
133.9

-.7
.6
.6
-1.9

-1.8
-1.6
-3.3
-3.4

1969: 1
II
III
IV v

138.4 130.2
142.7 131.3
150 2 142.8

32.5
33.3
43.1
41.6

97.7
98.0
99.7

-1.8
-2.1
2

134.2
136.2
143 3
142.3

135.2
137.4
143.3
142.4

-1.0
-1.2
.0
-.1

-4.2
-6.5
-6.9

8.3
11.4
7.4

10.1
13.5
7.7

1 Net exports of goods and services less net transfers to foreigners.
2 Surplus of $32 million.
3 Deficit of $41 million.
Note.—Corporate profits tax and related items for 1969 reflect repeal of investment tax credit.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




198

TABLE C-19.—Saving by individuals, 1946-69 *
[Billions of dollars]

Increase in financial assets

Year or
quarter

CurTotal

Total 2 demand
deposits

Net investment in

Less Increase in
debt

Securities
InsurNon- Mortance
Savand
Con- cor- gage
Corpoings
pen- Non- sumer podebt Con- Other
Govrate Corpo- sion farm
rate
acon sumer debt9
duounts ernand
homes rables busi- non- credit
rate
rement for- stock4 serves
ness farm
bonds3 eign
assets homes
bonds

(

1946
1947
1948
1949

25.4
20.7
23.9
19.2

18.4
13.3
9.2
10.0

4.8
-.5
-2.5
-1.9

6.3 - 1 . 1
3.4
2.3
2.3
1.2
2.6
1.8

-0.9
-.8
-.2
-.4

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

27.3
30.3
26.3
29.9
27.9
33.7
34.9
33.5
32.3
33.2

13.7
18.0
21.9
22.1
22.3
28.0
28.8
28.1
31.0
35.0

2.2
4.6
1.7
.5
1.8
.8
1.2
-.5
3.2
.5

2.5
.3
4.5 - . 5
7.7
1.4
8.3
2.4
9.2
1.0
8.8
5.9
9.5
3.4
12.1
1.9
14.0 - 1 . 5
11.4
7.9

-.8
-.2
-.1

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968

28.9
30.9
37.3
37.7
45.0
52.5
54.5
61.7
59.9

28.3
34.3
39.3
43.7
51.3
56.0
52.8
66.7
66.6

-1.4
.7
Z- 9
4*3
6.5
7.3
3.1
10.2
10.7

12.4
17.4
23.4
23.0
23.9
26.4
19.1
32.5
27.7

1967" 1
II...
III..
IV...

14.4
7.2
19.2
20.3

11.8
12.3
20.7
21.1

-1.1
2.0
3.7
6.9

9.0 - 1 . 5
10.0 - 4 . 7
8.0
3.6
5.5
.5

1968: l . . . _
II...
III..
IV...

16.3
4.7
18.5
18.1

13.5
11.0
19.8
19.3

-5.0
*
6.2
5.7

1969: I . . . .
II...
III..

16.2
5.1
20.8

14.4
9.8
21.2

°

5.3
5.3
5.2
5.5

4.8
7.9
11.2
10.1

5.8
7.5
7.1
7.0

2.7
2.2
6.6
1.4

4.1
4.7
4.9
4.2

2.7
3.2
2.8
2.9

.7
6.9
6.2
1 6 7.7
7.9
!9
7.9
.7
8.4
1.1
9.6
2.0
9.5
1.5
1.5 10.0
.6 11.4

15.2
13.9
13.4
14.0
14.8
18.4
16.7
14.5
14.1
18.2

10.2
5.5
3.6
6.4
4.9
9.9
5.9
4.9
.6
5.5

4.9
4.3
1.9
1.1
1.6
2.7
1.6
1.6
1.9
1.4

7.5
6.8
7.0
7.6
9.0
12.3
11.0
8.7
9.1
12.6

4 1
1.2
4.8
3.9
1.1
6.4
3.5
2.6
.2
6.4

5.1
3.2
2.7
2.2
5.7
6.7
3.7
4.3
6.0
7.8

11.6
12.2
12.8
13.9
15.2
17.1
18.1
20.1
19.3

15.8
14.5
16.5
17.5
17.7
17.5
16.0
14.3
19.2

5.1
2.9
6.7
8.9
11.2
14.8
15.2
12.4
16.9

.8
.6
1.8
2.1
1.0
3.4
2.7
2.0
1.3

10.5
11.0
12.7
14.9
15.8
15.3
11.8
11.1
15.0

4.6
1.8
5.8
7.9
8.5
10.0
7.2
4.6
11.1

6.0
8.6
84
11.6
11.9
13.9
13.1
18.1
18.0

.7 - . 8
.6 - 2 . 2
1.3 - 1 . 6
1.5 - . 2

4.4
5.7
5.0
5.0

2.6
2.8
4.3
4.7

.8
3.8
2.1
5.7

.8
.6
.3
.2

1.6 - 2 3
2.0
2.1
3.4
1.3
4.0
3.5

?2
8.1
3.6
3.9

3.9
-.8
3.2
.7

.7
.6
1.6 - 2 . 4
.9 - 2 . 6
1.3 - 3 . 3

4.3
5.4
4.8
5.0

4.0
4.3
5.3
5.4

1.7
4.4
3.3
7.5

.9
.7
-.3
*

3.5 - 1 . 2
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.0
4.3
5.6

1.5
8.5
2.8
4.3

7.5
-4.6
5.7
2.5
2.9 - 1 . 0
3.8 - 2 . 1 12.3

.9
.3
.8 - 2 . 2
2.5 - 1 . 2

4.1
5.9
5.1

4.7
4.8
5.3

2.2
5.0
2.8

.4
.4
2

3.7 - 1 . 2
4.1
4.0
4.1
1.6

3.0
6.7
2.6

8.1
5.7
6.3
7.7

2.9
.7
.8
4.3
4.2
4.4
7.8
-.6
6.9

-.4
1.1
.9
1.0
.7
.6
*
.4
5
-!6
-.5
.8
2.0
4.6
4.0

1.1
1.1
1.0
.8

-.4
.4
2 0
-2! 7
-.1
-1.9
-1.0
-4.9
-7.7

-0.4
2.3
2.7
2.2

1
Individuals'saving sector includes households, private trust funds, nonprofit institutions, farms, and other noncorporate
businesses. Revisions in account structure and estimation procedure are reflected in these data.
2 Includes miscellaneous financial assets not shown separately.
3 U.S. Government and agency securities and State and local obligations.
4
Includes investment company shares.
5
Private life insurance reserves, private insured and noninsured pension reserves, and government insurance and
pension reserves.
6
Security credit, policy loans, noncorporate business debt, and other debt.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




199

TABLE C-20.—Number and money income (in 1968 prices) of families and unrelated individuals,
by race of heady 1947-68
Total

White

With incomes
Total
under $3,000
number Median Num(mil- income ber
Perlions)
(mil- cent
lions)

Year

FAMIUES:i
1947—
1948
1949 .

37.2
38.6
39 3

$4,716
4,613
4,537

9.7
10.3
11 0

26.0
26.7
28 0

1950...
1951
1952
19531954...
1955
1956
1957...
1958
1959

39.9
40.6
40 8
41 2
42.0
42.9
.43.5
43.7
44.2
45.1

4,804
4,965
5,105
5,524
5,402
5,744
6,120
6,131
6,120
6,472

10.4
9.9
9 4
9.0
9.8
9.0
8.3
8.5
8.6
8.1

26.1
24.3
23.1
21.9
23.4
20.9
19.1
19.4
19.4
18.0

1960
1961
1962
1963—
1964
1965
1966.

45.5
46 3
47.0
47.4
47.8
48 3
48.9

6,604
6 671
6,851
7,101
7,367
7 666
7,971

_ 49.1
49.8
50.5

8,040
8,318
8,632

....

19662
1967 2
19682

Total
number Median
(mil- income
lions)

34.1
35.3

$4,916
4,790
4,718

38.2
39.0
39.5
39.7
40.2
40.9

4,985
5,173
5,402
5,733
5,629
5,991
6,404
6,379
6,377
6,742

8.1 17.9
8 3 18 0
7.8 16.7
7.5 "15.8
7.1 14.9
6 8 14 1
6.4 13.0

41.1
41 9
42.4
42.7
43.1
43 5
44.0

6.2
5.9
5.2

44.1
44.8
45.4

12.7
11.8
10.3

Negro and other races

With incomes
With incomes
under $3,000 Total
under $3,000
number Median NumNumPer- (mil- income ber
ber
Per(mil- cent lions)
(mil- cent
lions)
lions)

7.8
8.4

22.8
23.5
25.2

3.1
3.3

$2,514
2,559
2 414

1.9
1.9

60.0
58.0
60.8

3.8
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.2

2,704
2,725
3,064
3,229
3,126
3,320
3,380
3,421
3,270
3,482

1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.8

55.4
54.9
48.8
46.4
48.4
45.7
44.4
44.9
46.8
43.8

15.5
15.3
14.4
13.5
13.1
12 1
11.3

4.3
4 5
4.6
4.8
4.8
4 8
4.9

3,794
3 709
3,825
3,940
4,303
4 419
4,945

1.7
1 9
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4

40.5
41.2
38.3
37.4
32.8
31.4
27.8

11.0
10.2
8.9

5.0
5.0
5.1

4,994
5,352
5,590

1.4
1.3
1.2

27.6
25.9
22.8

8.0
7.2
6.5
6.7
6.7
6.3

23.4
21.2
20.0
19.4
20.9
18.4
16.4
16.6
16.6
15.5

6,857
6,957
7,170
7,443
7,691
7 995
8,290

6.4
6 4
6.0
5.7
5.5
5 3
5.0

8,366
8,625
8,937

4.8
4.6
4.0

With incomes
under $1,500

With incomes
under $1,500

Number
(millions)
UNRELATED
INDIVIDUALS^
1947
1948
1949

With incomes
under $1,500

Percent

NumPerber
(mil- cent
lions)

Number
(millions)

8.2
8.4
9 0

1,538
1,463
1,532

4.0
4.3
4.5

49.3
51.1
49.6

9.4
9 1
9.7
. 9.5
9.7
9.9
9.8
10.4
10.9
10 9

1,512
1 598
1,853
1,822
1,585
1,718
1,835
1,882
1,844
1 891

4.7
44
4.2
4.3
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.8
46

49.8
48 6
43.7
45.2
48.6
45.9
44.2
42.9
43.6
42 5

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966

11.1
11.2
11.0
11.2
12.1
12.1
12.4

2,021
2,041
2 017
2,052
2,235
2,384
2,438

4.5
4.5
43
4.3
4.5
4.1
4.1

1966 2
1967 2
1968 2

12 3
13.1
13.8

2,491
2,786

4.3
4.0

1950...
1951
1952...
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957—
1958
1959

7.2
7.3

1,634
1,524
1,654

3.4
3.6

47.9
49.6
47.7

.9
.8
.7
.8
.9
.9

38.6
37.7
36.6
36.5
35.2
32.6
32.0

1.5
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.6

1,332
1,370
1,446
1,475
1,663
1,847
1,866

.8
.9
.8
.8
.8
.7
.7

55.2
54.0
51.8
50.7
47.0
42.8
42.8

31.4
27.2

1.6
1.8
1.8

1,917
1,999

.7
.7

41.6
39.5

3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.4

2,607
2,952

3.6
3.3

9.6
9.6
9.5
9.7
10.4
10.5
10.8

32.8
28.8

10 7
11.3
12.0

59.8
62.1
60.3

1.5
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.6

2,187
2,203
2,174
2,166
2,354
2,478
2,536

40.9
40.0
38.8
38.3
36.9
33.9
33.3

0.6
.7

59.0
55.1
53.5
49.9
59.9
57.2
51.5
54.7
54.7
54.2

3.8
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.9
3.7

8.2
8.5
8.5
8.9
9.2
9.3

1,163
1,148
1,205
1,190
1 299
1,389
1,504
1,184
1,264
1,448
1,354
1,345
1,351

48.4
47.6
42.0
44.1
46.5
44.0
43.0
41.0
41.8
40.0

1,613
1,682
1,992
1,923
1,710
1,830
1,887
1,981
1,940
1,991

1.0
1.1

Percent

1
The term "family" refers to a group of two or more persons related by blood, marriage, or adoption and residing together; all such persons are considered members of the same family.
2
Based on revised methodology.
3
The term "Unrelated individuals" refers to persons 14 years old and over (other than inmates of institutions) who are
not living with any relatives.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.




200

POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
PRODUCTIVITY
TABLE G-21.—Population by age groups: Estimates, 1929-69, and projections, 1970-85l
[Thousands of persons]
Age (years)

July 1

Under 5

Estimates:
1929

7

Total
5-15

16-19

20-24

25-44

65 and
over

45-64

121,767

11,734

26,800

9,127

10,694

35,862

21,076

6,474

1930.
1931
1932..
1933.1
1934

123,077
124,040
124,840
125,579
126,374

11,372
11,179
10,903
10,612
10,331

26,983
26,984
26,969
26,897
26,796

9,220
9,259
9,284
9,302
9,331

10,915
11,003
11,077
11,152
11,238

36,309
36,654
36,988
37,319
37,662

21,573
22,031
22,473
22,933
23,435

6,705
6,928
7,147
7,363
7,582

1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

127,?50
128,053
128,825
129,825
130,880

10,170
10,044
10, 009
10,176
10,418

26,645
26,415
26,062
25,631
25,179

9,381
9,461
9,578
9,717
9,822

11,317
11,375
11,411
11,453
11,519

37,987
38,288
38,589
38,954
39,354

23,947
24,444
24,917
25,387
25,823

7,804
8,027
8,258
8,508
8,764

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944

132,122
133,402
134,860
136,739
138,397

10,579
10, 850
11,301
12,016
12,524

24,811
24,516
24,231
24,093
23,949

9,895
9,840
9,730
9,607
9,561

11,690
11,807
11,955
12,064
12,062

39,868
40,383
40, °61
41,420
42,016

26,249
26,718
27,196
27,671
28,138

9,031
9,288
9,584
9,867
10,147

1945.
1946
1947
1948
1949

139,928
141,389
144,126
146,631
149,188

12,979
13,244
14,406
14,919
15,607

23,907
24,103
24,468
25,209
25,852

9,361
9,119
9,097
8,952
8,788

12,036
12,004
11,814
11,794
11,700

42, 521
43,027
43,657
44,288
44,916

28,630
29,064
29,498
29,931
30,405

10,494
10,828
11,185
11,538
11,921

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

152,271
154,878
157,553
160,184
163,026

16,410
17,333
17,312
17,638
18,057

26,721
27,279
28,894
30,227
31,480

8,542
8,446
8,414
8,460
8,637

11,680
11,552
11,350
11,062
10,832

45,672
46,103
46,495
46,786
47,001

30,849
31,362
31,884
32,394
32,942

12,397
12,803
13,203
13,617
14,076

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

165,931
168,903
171,984
174,882
177,830

18, 566
19,003
19,494
19,887
20,175

32,682
33,994
35,272
36,445
37,368

8,744
8,916
9,195
9,543
10,215

10,714
10,616
10,603
10,756
10,969

47,194
47,379
47,440
47,337
47,192

33,506
34,057
34,591
35,109
35,663

14,525
14,938
15,388
15,806
16,248

1960...
1961
1962.
1963..
1964

180,684
183,756
186.656
189,417
192,120

20,364
20,657
20,746
20,750
20,670

38,504
39,768
41,168
41,620
42,294

10,698
11,093
11,258
12,061
12,819

11,116
11,408
11,889
12,620
13,154

47,134
47,061
46,968
46,932
46,881

36,208
36,756
37,316
37,869
38,438

16,659
17,013
17,311
17,565
17,863

1965
1966.
1967
1968.//
19694

194,592
196,92fr<|>7
199,11-8201,1^6^
203,216

20,404
19,811
19,191
18,521
17,960

42,963
43,822
44,488
44,977
45,260

13,563
14,304
14,167
14,338
14,655

13,679
14,063
15,197
15,788
16,484

46,807
46,855
47,077
47,614
47,994

39,015
39,601
40,194
40,768
41,393

18,162
18,464
18,796
19,129
19,470

206,039
204,923

18,740
17,625 \ 45,273

} 15,087|/j 17,261 } 48,276 } 41,817

19,585

1975: Series C . . _ .
Series D . . . .

219,366
215,367

21,211
18,323

43,836
42,726

} 16,614 } 19,299

1980: Series C.___
Series D

235,212
227,665

24,298
20,736

44,360 ) 16,9401
40,376

1985: Series C . . .
Series D___.

252,871
241,731

26,645
23,030

49,944
43,123

Projections:1
1970: Series C
Series D

} 20,997

15,213 i
14,509 | }

21,068

53,881

43,364

}

21,159

62,374

43,180

}

23,063

72,083

42,940

24,978

i Two of four series projected by the cohort method and based on different assumptions with regard to completed
fertility, which moves gradually toward a level of 2,775 children per 1,000 women for Series C and 2,450 children per
1,000 women for Series D. For further explanation of method of projection and for additional data, see "Population Estimates, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 381," December 1967.
Note.—Data for Armed Forces overseas included beginning 1940. Includes Alaska and Hawaii beginning 1950>>
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.




201

TABLE G-22.—Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-69
Civilian labor force
Noninstitutional
population

Year or month

Total
labor
force
(including
Armed
Forces)

Employment

Armed
Forces
Total
Total

Agricultural

Nonagricultural

Unemployment

Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over

Total
Unemlabor
force as ployment
percent as perof non- cent of
institu- civilian
tional
labor
popuforce
lation
Percent

1929..

49,440

260

49,180

47,630

10,450

37,180

1,550

3.2

1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..

50,080
50,680
51,250
51,840
52,490

260
260
250
250
260

49,820
50,420
51,000
51,590
52,230

45,480
42,400
38,940
38,760
40,890

10,340
10,290
10,170
10,090
9,900

35,140
32,110
28,770
28,670
30,990

4,340
8,020
12,060
12,830
11,340

8.7
15.9
23.6
24.9
21.7

1935..
1936..
1937..
1938..
1939..

53,140
53,740
54,320
54,950
55,600

270
300
320
340
370

52,870
53,440
54,000
54,610
55,230

42,260
44,410
46,300
44,220
45,750

10,110
10,000
9,820
9,690
9,610

32,150
34,410
36,480
34,530
36,140

10,610
9,030
7,700
10,390
9,480

20.1
16.9
14.3
19.0
17.2

1940..
1941..
1942.
1943.
1944.

100,380
101,520
102,610
103,660
104,630

56,180
57,530
60,380
64,560
66,040

540
1,620
3,970
9,020
11,410

55,640
55,910
56,410
55,540
54,630

47,520
50,350
53,750
54,470
53,960

9,540
9,100
9,250
9,080
8,950

37,980
41,250
44,500
45,390
45,010

8,120
5,560
2,660
1,070
670

56.0
56.7
58.8
62.3
63.1

14.6
9.9
4.7
1.9
1.2

1945.
1946.
1947.

105,530
106,520
107,608

65,300
60,970
61,758

11,440
3,450
1,590

53,860
57,520
60,168

52,820
55,250
57,812

8,580
8,320
8,256

44,240
46,930
49,557

1,040
2,270
2,356

61.9
57.2
57.4

1.9
3.9
3.9

Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over

Percent

1947..
1948..
1949..

103,418
104,527
105,611

60,941
62,080
62,903

1,591
1,459
1,617

59,350
60,621
61,286

57,039
58,344
57,649

7,891
7,629
7,656

49,148
50,713
49,990

2,311
2,276
3,637

58.9
59.4
59.6

3.9
3.8
5.9

1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..

106,645
107,721
108,823
110,601
111,671

63,858
65,117
65,730
66,560
66,993

1,650
3,100
3,592
3,545
3,350

62,208
62,017
62,138
63,015
63,643

58,920
59,962
60,254
61,181
60,110

7,160
6,726
6,501
6,261
6,206

51,760
53,239
53,753
54,922
53,903

3,288
2,055
1,883
1,834
3,532

59.9
60.4
60.4
60.2
60.0

5.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.5

1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..

112,732
113,811
115,065
116,363
117,881

68,072
69,409
69,729
70,275
70,921

3,049
2,857
2,800
2,636
2,552

65,023
66,552
66,929
67,639
68,369

62,171
63,802
64,071
63,036
64,630

6,449
6,283
5,947
5,586
5,565

55,724
57,517
58,123
57,450
59,065

2,852
2,750
2,859
4,602
3,740

60.4
61.0
60.6
60.4
60.2

4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5.5

I960..
1961..
1962..
1963.
1964.

119,759
121,343
122,981
125,154
127,224

72,142
73,031
73,442
74,571
75,830

2,514
2,572
2,828
2,738
2,739

69,628
70,459
70,614
71,833
73,091

65,778
65,746
66,702
67,762
69,305

5,458
5,200
4,944
4,687
4,523

60,318
60,546
61,759
63,076
64,782

3,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3,786

60.2
60.2
59.7
59.6
59.6

5.5
6.7
5.5
5.7
5.2

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.

129,236
131,180
133,319
135,562
137,841

77,178
78,893
80,793
82,272
84,239

2,723
3,123
3,446
3,535
3,506

74,455
75,770
77,347
78,737
80,733

71,088
72,895
74,372
75,920
77,902

4,361
3,979
3,844
3,817
3,606

66,726
68,915
70,527
72,103
74,296

3,366
2,875
2,975
2,817
2,831

59.7
60.1
60.6
60.7
61.1

4.5
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5

1968:Jan...
Feb...
Mar..
Apr...
May..
June..

134,576
134,744
134.904
135,059
135,249
135,440

79,811
80,869
80,938
81,141
81,770
84,454

3,464
3,467
3,491
3,507
3,536
3,567

76,347
77,402
77,447
77,634
78,234
80,887

73,273
74,114
74,517
75,143
75,931
77,273

3,366
3,462
3,537
3,851
3,996
4,516

69,908
70,653
70,980
71,292
71,935
72,757

3,074
3,288
2,929
2,491
2,303
3,614

59.3
60.0
60.0
60.1
60.5
62.4

4.0
4.2
3.8
3.2
2.9
4.5

July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec...

135,639
135,839
136,036
136,221
136,420
136,619

84,550
83,792
82,137
82,477
82,702
82,618

3,586 80,964
3,589 80,203
3,591 78,546
3,603 78,874
3,517 ! 79,185
3,500 79,118

77,746
77,432
75,939
76,364
76,609
76,700

4,476
4,107
3,836
3,767
3,607
3,279

73,270
73,325
72,103
72,596
73,001
73,421

3,217
2,772
2,606
2,511
2,577
2,419

62.3
61.7
60.4
60.5
60.6
60.5

4.0
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.1

See footnotes at end of table.




202

TABLE G-22.—Noninstitutional population and the labor force,

1929-69—Continued

Civilian labor force

Year or month

Noninstitutional
population

Total
labor
force
(including
Armed
Forces)

Employment
Armed
Forces

Total
Total

Agricultural

Nonagricultural

Unemployment

Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over

Total
Unemlabor
force as ployment
percent as perof non- cent of
institu- civilian
tional
labor
popuforce
lation
Percent

1969:Jan..
Feb.
Mar_
AprMay.
June

136,802
136,940
137,143
137,337
137,549
137,737

81,711
82,579
82,770
83,137
83,085
85,880

3,477
3,475
3,504
3,516
3,522
3,524

78,234
79,104
79,266
79,621
79, 563
82,356

75,358
76,181
76, 520
77,079
77,264
78,956

3,165
3,285
3,327
3,607
3,894
4,367

72,192
72,896
73,193
73,471
73,370
74, 589

2,876
2,923
2,746
2,542
2,299
3,400

59.7
60.3
60.4
60.5
60.4
62.4

3.7
3.7
3.5
3.2
2.9
4.1

July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

137,935
138,127
138,317
138,539
138,732
138,928

86,318
86,046
84,527
85, 038
84,920
84,856

3,521
3,530
3,543
3,528
3,493
3,440

82,797
82.516
80,984
81,510
81,427
81,416

79,616
79,646
78,026
78,671
78,716
78,788

4,155
3,977
3,629
3,561
3,322
2,984

75,460
75,669
74,397
75,110
75,395
75,805

3,182
2,869
2,958
2,839
2,710
2,628

62.6
62.3
61.1
61.4
61.2
61.1

3.8
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.2

Seasonally adjusted
1968:Jan...
Feb...
Mar..
Apr...
May..
June..

81,344
82,035
82,137
81,933
82,278
82,486

77,881
78, 569
78,645
78,427
78,742
78,919

75, 086
75,640
75,764
75,653
75,932
76,005

3,962
4,074
3,978
3,916
3,905
3,849

71,124
71,566
71,786
71,737
72,027
72,156

2,795
2,929
2,881
2,774
2,810
2,914

3.6
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.7

July._
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec...

82,504
82,338
82,438
82,403
82,559
82,868

78,917
78,749
78,847
78,800
79,042
79,368

76, 020
75,973
76,000
76, 002
76,388
76,765

3,825
3,751
3,651
3,525
3,706
3,842

72,195
72,222
72,349
72,477
72,682
72,923

2,897
2,776
2,847
2,798
2,654
2,603

3.7
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.3

1969: Jan...
Feb..
Mar__
Apr..
May._
June.

83,351
83,831
83,999
83,966
83,593
83,957

79,874
80,356
80,495
80,450
80,071
80,433

77,229
77,729
77,767
77,605
77,265
77,671

3,752
3,881
3,732
3,664
3,805
3,705

73,477
73,848
74,035
73,941
73,460
73,966

2,645
2,627
2,728
2,845
2,806
2,762

3.3
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.4

JulyAug__
Sept..
Oct...
Nov._
Dec.

84,277
84,584
84,902
85,014
84,788
85,029

80,756
81,054
81,359
81,486
81,295
81,589

77,874
78,187
78,127
78,325
78,497
78,779

3,551
3,634
3,458
3,332
3,429
3,505

74,323
74,553
74,669
74,993
75,068
75,274

2,882
2,867
3,232
3,161
2,798
2,810

3.6
3.5
4.0
3.9
3.4
3.4

Note.—Labor force data in Tables C-22 through C-25 are based on household interviews and relate to the calendar
week including the 12th of the month. For definitions of terms, area samples used, historical comparability of the data
comparability with other series, etc., see "Employment and Earnings."
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




203

TABLE C-23.—Civilian employment and unemployment, by sex and age,

1947-69

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over]
Unemployment

Employment
Males

Males

Females

Females

Year or
month
Total

20
Total

20

16-19 years Total 16-19 years
years and
years and
over

Total
Total

over

20
16-19 years
years and
over

20
Total

16-19 years
years and
over

1949

57,039 40,994 2,218 38,776 16,045 1,691 14,354 2,311 1,692 270 1,422
619
255 1,305
58,344 41,726 2,34539,382 16,618 1,683 14;
14,937 2,276 1,559
717
352 2,219 1,065
57,649 40,926 2,124 38,803 16,723 1,588 15,137 3,637 2,572

144
152
223

475
564
841

1950.
1951.
1952..
1953.
1954..

58,920 41,580
59,962141,780
60,254 41,684
61,181 42,431
60,110 41,620

2,186
2,156
2,106
2,135
1,985

17,340
18,182
18,570
18,750
18,490

517 15,824
16,570!
612 16,958;
17,164
17,000

3,288 2,239
2,055 1,221
1,883! 1,185
1,834 1,202
3,532 2,344

195
145
140
123
191

854
689
559
510
997

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.

62,17142,621
63,802143,380
64,071 43,357
63,036 42,423
64,630 43,466

2,095 40,
1,526 19,550
2,164 41 ,216 20,422
2,117 41 ,239120,714
2,012 40;
1,411,20,613
2,198 41 ,267 21,164

548 18,002
654 18,767
663 19,052
570 19,043
640 19,524

2,852
2,750
2.859
4,602
3,740

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1947....

1948

39,
1,394
39,
1,626
39,
1,578
40,
1,296
39,
1,634

318
191
205
184
310

1,922 1,049
1,029
834
980
698
1,019
632
2,035 1,188

1,854
1,711
1,841
3,098
2,420

274
269
299
416
398

1,580
1,442
1,541
2,681
2,022

\§5J7S 43,904
d65774is}43,656
1667702144,177
67,762 44,657
69,305|45,474

2,360 41,543 2;
1,769 20,105 3,852 2,486
" "*Ul,342r
* — 20,296 4,714 2,997
. 141,815 .
20,693 3,911 2,423
J, 406 42,251 23,105
849 21,257 4,070 2,472
929 21,903 3,786 2,205
2,587 42,886 23,831

425
479
407
500
487

2,060 ,366
2,518 ,717
2,016 ,488
1,971 1,598
1,718 1,581

71,088 46,340
172,89546,919
,74,372' 47,479
^ 9 2 0 48,114
4^902,48,818

2,918 43,422 24,748 2,118 22,630 3,366
3,252 43,667 25,976 2,469 23,507 2,875
3,186 44,293126,893 2,496 24,397 2,975
3,254 44,859l27^J07 2,525! 25,281 2,817
) 2,687 26,397 2,831
3'430|45v

1,914
1,551
1,508
1,419
1,403

998
,039
,018
,504
,320

823
176
832
209
821
197
262 1,242
256 1,063
286
349
313
383
386

1,368
1,175
1,216
1,195

479 1,435 1,452
432 1,119 1,324
448 1,060 1,468
427
993 1,397
441
963 1,428

395 1,056
404
919
390 1,078
412
985
412 1,015

Seasonally adjusted
1968:Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Apr
Vlay.
May
June.
July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov.Dec...
1969:Jan...
Feb...
MarApr...
May..
June..
July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...

75,086
75,640
75,764
75,653
75,932
76,005

47,752
47,986
48,034
48,058
48,073
48,102

3,064 44,688 27,334
3,216 44,770 27,654
3,257 44,777 27,730
3,278 44,780 27,595
3,286 44,787 27,859
3,24144,86127,903

2,558
2,615
2,603
2,567
2,578
2,592

24,776
25,039
25,127
25, 028
25,281
25,311

2,795
2,929
2,881
2,774
2,810
2,914

1,456
1,491
1,459
1,385
1,382
1,498

417
438
441
406
399
456

1,339
1,438
1,422
1,389
1,428
1,416

320 1,019
412 1,026
4 7 985
3
968
421
450 978
974
442

76,020
75,973
76,000
76,002
76,388
76,765

48,162
48,203
48,120
48,030
48,235
48,579

3,249 44,913
.
3,262 44,858
3,257 44,773
3,295 44,940
3,325 45,254

27,858
27,770
27,880
27,972
28,153
28,186

2,517 25,341
2,530 25,240
2,505 25,375
2,477 25,495
2,45125,702
2,384 25,802

2,897
2,776
2,847
2,798
2,654
2,603

L,434
[,388
1,406
1,441
1,351
1,276

431 1,003 1,463
403
985 1,388
401 1,005 1,441
432 1,009 1,357
420 931 1,303
437
839 1,327

450 1,013
976
412
422 1,019
985
372
928
375
935
392

77,229 48,686
77,729 48,875
77,767 48,,919
—
77,605 48,
1,766
77,265 48,,609
77,671 48,653

3,455 45,231
3,453 45,422
3,497 45,422
3,48145,285
3,382 45,227
3,393 45,

,
28,543 2,544 25,999 2,645 1,361
28,,.
28,848
28,839
28,656

2,590 26,264
2,620 26,228
2,670:26,169
2,610 26,046
2,767 26,251

2,627
2,728
2,845
2,806
2,762

1,283
1,330
1,356
1,360
1,341

461
425
455
446
416
395

900
858
875
910
944
946

1,284
1,344
1,398
1,489
1,446
1,421

951
333
966
378
961
437
453 1,036
443 1,003
410 1,011

77,874
77,187
78,127
78,325
78,497
78,779

3,345 45,293 29,236
3,313 45,55129,323
3,497 45,442 29,188
3,401 45,424 29,500
3,549 45,487 29,475
3,502 45,609 29,670

2,73126,505
2,701 26,622
2,669 26,519
2,789 26,711
2,780 26,695
2,738 26,932

2,882
2,867
3,232
3,161
2,798
2,810

1,485
1,370
1,608
1,601
1.461
1,448

456
414
482
473
459
437

1,029
956
1,126
1,128
1,002
1,011

1,397
1,497
1,624
1,560
1,337
1,362

4 7 1,167
5

48,638
48,864
48,939
48,825
49,036
49,111

Note—See Note, Table C-22.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




204

1,039
1,053
1,018
979
983
1,042

391 1,006
442 1,055

454 1,106
965
372
960
402

TABLE C-24.—Selected unemployment rates, 1948-69
[Percent]
By sex and age

Year or month

All
workers

Both
sexes,
16-19
years

Men,
20
years
and
over

Women, 20
years
and
over

1948.
1949.

3.8
5.9

9.2
13.4

3.2
5.4

5.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.5

12.2
8.2
8.5
7.6
12.6

4.7
2.5
2.4
2.5
4.9

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.

4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5.5

11.0
11.1
11.6
15.9
14.6

1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

5.5
6.7
5.5
5.7:
5

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968
1969.

3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5

White

3.6
5.3

1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

By color

Negro
and
other
races

By selected groups

Experienced
wage
and
salary
workers

Married
men*

Fulltime
workers 2

Bluecollar
workers 3

Labor
force
time lost*

4.2
8.0

5.9

3.7
6.2

3.5

5.4

5.1
4.0
3.2
2.9
5.5

35
5.6
4.9
3.1
2.8
2.7
5.0

9.0
5.3
5.4
4.5
9.9

5.6
3.2
2.9
2.6
6.2

4.6
1.5
1.4
1.7
4.0

5.0
2.6
2.5

3.8
3.4
3.6
6.2
4.7

4.4
4.2
4.1
6.1
5.2

3.9
3.6
3.8
6.1
4.8

8.7
8.3
7.9
12.6
10.7

4.8
4.4
4.6
7.2
5.7

2.6
2.3
2.8
5.1
3.6

3.8
3.7
4.0
7.2

14.7
16.8
14.7
17.2
16.2

4.7
5.7
4.6
4.5
3.9

5.1
6.3
5.4
5.4
5.2

4.9
6.0
4.9
5.0
4.6

10.2
12.4
10.9
10.8
9.6

5.7
6.8
5.6
5.5
5.0

3.7
4.6
3.6
3.4
2.8

14.8
12.8
12.8
12.7
12.2

3.2
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1

4.5
3.8
4.2
3.8
3.7

4.1
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.1

8.1
7.3
7.4
6.7
6.4

4.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.3

5.2

7.2
3.9
3.6
3.4
7.2
5.8
5.1
6.2
10.2
7.6

5.1
5.3
8.1
6.6

5.4
4.8

7.8
9.2
7.4
7.3
6.3

6.7
8.0
6.7
6.4
5.8

2.4
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5

4.2
3.4
3.5
3.1
3.1

5.3
4.2
4.4
4.1
3.9

5.0
4.2
4.2
4.0
3.9

6.7

Seasonally adjusted
1968:Jan..
Feb..
Mar_
Apr..
May.
June.

3.6
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.7

11.6
12.7
13.0
12.4
12.6
13.3

2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.3

4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7

3.2
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3

6.6
7.1
6.9
6.8
6.5
7.1

3.4
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.5

1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.7

3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.2

4.3
4.4
4.4
4.0
3.8
4.1

4.1
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.7
4.1

July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec.

3.7
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.3

13.3
12.3
12.5
12.3
12.2
12.7

2.2
2.1
2,2
2.2
2.0
1.8

3.8
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.5

3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0

6.8
6.4
6.6
7.3
6.5
6.0

3.5
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1

1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.4

3.3
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.7

4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.6

4.2
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.6

1969:Jan..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr..
May.
June

3.3
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.4

11.7
11.7
12.7
12.8
12.5
11.6

2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.8
3.7
3.7

3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0

6.0
5.7
6.0
6.9
6.5
7.0

3.1
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.2

1.4
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5

2.9
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.1

3.8
3.6
3.7
4.1
3.8
3.7

3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.9

July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec.

3.6
3.5
4.0
3.9
3.4
3.4

12.2
12.5
13.2
13.0
11.6
11.9

2.2
2.1
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2

3.7
3.8
4.2
4.0
3.5
3.4

3.2
3.2
3.6
3.5
3.1
3.2

6.4
6.5
6.8
6.9
6.2
5.5

3.5
3.5
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.3

1.6
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.6

3.1
3.1
3.4
3.2
3.0
3.1

3.8
3.8
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.3

4.1
4.1
4.4
4.4
4.0
3.8

* Married men living with their wives. Data for 1949 and 1951-54 are for April; 1950, for March.
2 Data for 1949-61 are for May.
3 Includes craftsmen, operatives, and nonfarm laborers. Data for 1948-57 are based on data for January, April, July,
and October.
< Man-hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially available
labor force man-hours.
Note.-See Note, Table C-22.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

372-111 O—70




205

TABLE G-25.— Unemployment by duration, 1947-69
Duration of unemployment
Total unemployment

Year or month

Less than
5 weeks

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

27 weeks
and over

Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over
1947
1948
1949

2,311
2,276
3,637

1,210
1,300
1,756

704
669
1,194

234
193
427

164
111
256

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

3,288
2,055
1,883
1,834
3,532

1,450
1,177
1,135
1,142
1,605

1,055
574
516
482
1,116

425
166
148
132
495

357
137
84
78
317

2,852
2,750
2,859
4,602
3,740

1,335
1,412
1,408
1,753
1,585

815

367

336

1,396
1,114

785
469

667
571

1,719
1,806
1,659
1,751
1,697

1,176
1,376
1,134
1,231
1,117

502

454

728
534
535

..

3,852
4,714
3,911
4,070
3,786

490

482

1,628
1,535
1,635
1,594
1,629

983

404

351

__..

3,366
2,875
2,975
2,817
2,831

295
271
256
242

241
177
156
133

.

.

.

.

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

'._
_ .

.

.

_ _

805
891

804
893
810
829

301
321

232
239

804
585
553

Seasonally adjusted l
1968:Jan.

Feb

„

2,795
2,929
2,881
2,774
2,810
2,914

Apr
May
June _ _ _ _ _ _ _
July
Aug
Sept
Oct

_

__ _
_

_

Nov
Dec

1969:Jan
Feb.

- ._

Mar

_

_

_

___

Apr

__

June _

__________

May

July..

__

_

Aug
Sept
oct : : : _ : : :

Nov
Dec

____:__

1,380
1,707
1,703
1,542
1,681
1,701

855
808
768
829
711
830

290
285
111
244
278
260

181
168
177
158
140
163

2,897
2,776
2,847
2,798
2,654
2,603

.

Mar

1,657
1,629
1,631
1,542
1,576
1,363

844
765
811
892
785
825

295
238
235
253
221
177

175
162
138
128
127
145

2,645
2,627
2,728
2,845
2,806
2,762

1,476
1,436
1,646
1,724
1,777
1,591

741
829
757
737
629

193
237
237
254
278

813

258

123
109
118
139
131
125

2,882
2,867
3,232
3,161
2,798
2,810

1,677
1,636
1,818
1,857
1,564
1,436

830

244

861

244
233
240
244
262

175
138
156
130
140
120

1,000

948
910
910

I Because of independent seasonal adjustment of the various series, detail will not necessarily add to totals.
Note.—See Note, Table C-22.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




206

TABLE

C-26.— Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1940-69
All programs

Covered
employ-1
ment

Year or month

State programs

Insured Total
unem- benefits Insured
ploypaid
unemment
(milploy(weekly lions
ment 3
averof dolage) 2 s lars) 2 4

Thousands
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945 .
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958...
1959

.-

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 p
1968: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1969: J a n . . . .
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June.. .
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov p.Dec p

1 331
842
661
149
111
720
2,804
1,793
1,446
2,474

534 7
358.8
350.4
80.5
67.2
574.9
2,878. 5
1,785.5
1,328 7
2,269.8

1,605
1,000
1,069
1,067
2,051
1,399
1,323
1,571
3,269
2,099

46,334
46,266
47,776
48,434
49,637
51,580
54,739
56,342

2,071
2,994
1,946
U,973
1,753
1,450
1,129
1,270
1 187
1,175

1,467.6
862.9
1,043 5
1,050.6
2,291.8
1,560.2
1,540.6
1,913.0
4,290.6
2,854.3
3,022.8
4,358.1
3,145.1
3,025.9
2,749.2
2 360 4
1,890.9
2,220.0
2 191 3
2,265.0

55,747
55,956
56,419
57,157
57,676
58,771

1,719
1,653
1,480
1,216
1,026
944

P58,833
P59,179

1 058
1,024
868
862
985
1,253
1,585
1,551
1 385
1 163
970
912
1 089
1 016
903
930
1,106
1,449

P59,036

P58 738

P58,865

s 59,249
..

Exhaustions »

Unadjusted

Weekly average, thousands

24,291
. 28,136
30,819
32,419
31,714
. . 30,087
31,856
33,876
34,646
33,098
34,308
36,334
37,006
38,072
36,622
40,018
42,751
43,436
44,411
45,728

P57,969

Initial
claims

264 8
259.4
247.5
207.2
170.2
139.3
156 9
162.8
133.4
138 7
134.8
185.4
264.6
250.8
242 6
214.9
164.9
145.7
171 8
169 7
148.3
153.8
147.7
208.5

Insured unemployment as percent of covered
employment

Benefits paid

Total
(millions of
Seasondolally ad- lars) 4
justed

Average
weekly
check
(dollars) •

Percent
10.56
11.06
12.66
13.84
15.90
18.77
18.50
17.83
19.03
20,48

4.6
2.8
2 9
2.8
5.2
3.5
32
3.6
6.4
4.4

518.7
344.3
344.1
79.6
62.4
445.9
1,094.9
775.1
789.9
1,736.0
1,373.1
840.4
998.2
962.2
2,026.9
1,350.3
1,380.7
1,733.9
3,512.7
2,279.0

31
46
32
30
26
21
15
17
16
15

4.8
5.6
4.4
4.3
3>8
3 0
2 3
2.5
22
2.2

2,726.7
3,422.7
2,675.4
2,774.7
2,522.1
2 166.0
1,771.3
2,101.0
2 031 9
2,099. 5

32.87
33.80
34.56
35.27
35.92
37.19
39.75
41.25
43 43
46.10

316
227
183
183
156
157

18
18
19
20
18
17

3.3
3.2
2.8
2.3
2.0
1.8

2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2

248.5
243.7
231.1
195.1
159.1
129.1

42.60
43.58
43.64
43.12
42.42
42.26

991
955
802
794
913
1,172
1,491
1,459
1,300
1 090
906
852

240
174
141
154
189
261
275
219
173
167
144
162

1 021
948
840
864
1,030
1,378

246
172
146
167
213
289

15
15
13
14
13
14
16
17
17
19
17
17
15
14
13
13
12
13

2.0
1.9
1.6
16
1.8
2.3
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.2
1.8
1.7
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.6
2.0
2.7

2 2
2.2
2.2
21
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
21
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.3

145.6
150.0
121.8
126.0
122.5
170.3
246.1
234.2
226.5
200.1
153.0
135.0
159.2
156.7
136.2
140.9
134.7
194.8

42.39
43.73
43.78
44.37
44.72
45.34
46.16
46.80
46.70
46.03
45.14
44.88
45.30
46.16
45.70
46.17
46.91
47.25

1 282
814
649
147
105
589
1,295
997
980
1,973
1,513
969
1,044
990
1,870
1,265
1,215
1,446
2,526
1,684

214
164
122
36
29
116
189
187
200
340

50
30
21
4
2
5
38
24
20
37

56
3.0
2.2
.5
4
2.1
4.3
3.1
3 0
6.2

236
208
215
218
304
226
111
270
369
277

36
16
18
15
34
25
20
23
50
33

1,908
2,290
1,783
n,806
1,605
1 328
1,061
1,205
1 111
1,098

331
350
302
7 297
268
232
203
226
201
197

1,624
1,556
1,390
1,142
964
883

20.76
21.09
22.79
23.58
24.93
25.04
27.02
28.17
30.58
30.41

1 Includes persons under the State, UCFE (Federal employee, effective January 1955), and RRB (Railroad Retirement
Board) programs. Beginning October 1958, also includes the UCX program (unemployment compensation for ex-servicemen).
2 Includes State, UCFE, RR, UCX, UCV (unemployment compensation for veterans, October 1952-January 1960), and
SRA (Servicemen's Readjustment Act, September 1944-September 1951) programs. Also includes Federal and State
programs for temporary extension of benefits from June 1958 through June 1962, expiration date of program.
3
Covered workers who have completed at least 1 week of unemployment.
* Includes benefits paid under extended duration provisions of State laws, beginning June 1958. Annual data are net
amounts and monthly data are gross amounts.
8
Individuals receiving final payments in benefit year.
8
For total unemployment only.
7
Programs include Puerto Rican sugarcane workers for initial claims and insured unemployment beginning July 1963.
1
Preliminary; December 1968 is latest month for which data are available for all programs combined. Workers covered
by State programs account for about 88 percent of the total.
Source: Department of Labor, Manpower Administration.




207

TABLE C-27.—Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1929-69
[All employees; thousands of persons]

Total
wage
and
salary
workers

Year or
month

Manufacturing

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Mining

Contract
construction

Transportation
and
public
utilities

Wholesale
and
retail
trade

Finance,
insurance,
and
real
estate

Government
Services

Federal

State
and
local

1929

31,339

10,702

1,087

1,497

3,916

6,123

1,509

3,440

533

2,532

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934

29,424
26,649
23,628
23 711
25^953

9,562
8,170
6,931
7 397
8,501

1,009
873
731
744
883

1,372
1,214
970
809
862

3,685
3,254
2,816
2 672
2^750

5,797
5,284
4,683
4 755
5; 281

1,475
1,407
1,341
1 295
1^319

3,376
3,183
2,931
2 873
3^058

526
560
559
565
652

2,622
2,704
2,666
2 601
2^647

1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

27 053
29,082
31,026
29 209
30,618

9,069
9,827
10,794
9,440
10,278

4,715

5,564

897
946
1,015
891
854

912
1,145
1,112
1,055
1,150

2,786
2,973
3,134
2 863
2,936

5,431
5,809
6,265
6,179
6,426

1 335
1,388
1,432
1 425
1,462

3 142
3,326
3,518
3 473
3,517

753
826
833
829
905

2 728
2,842
2,923
3 054
3,090

32,376
36,554
40,125
42,452
41,883

10,985
13,192
15,280
17,602
17,328

5,363
6,968
8,823
11,084
10,856

5,622
6,225
6,458
6,518
6,472

925
957
992
925
892

1,294
1,790
2.170
1,567
1,094

3,038
3,274
3,460
3,647
3,829

6,750
7,210
7,118
6,982
7,058

1,502
1,549
1,538
1,502
1,476

3,681
3,921
4,084
4,148
4,163

996
1,340
2,213
2,905
2,928

3,206
3,320
3,270
3,174
3,116

1945........
1946
1947
1948
1949

40,394
41,674
43,881
44,891
43,778

15,524
14,703
15,545
15,582
14,441

9,074
7,742
8,385
8,326
7,489

6,450
6,962
7,159
7,256
6,953

836
862
955
994
930

1,132
1,661
1,982
2,169
2,165

3,906
4,061
4,166
4,189
4,001

7,314
8,376
8,955
9,272
9,264

1,497
1,697
1,754
1,829
1,857

4,241
4,719
5,050
5,206
5,264

2,808
2,254
1,892
1,863
1,908

3,137
3,341
3,582
3,787
3,948

1950. .
1951
1952
1953 ._
1954

45,222
47,849
48,825
50,232
49,022

15,241
16,393
16,632
17,549
16,314

8,094
9,089
9,349
10,110
9,129

7,147
7,304
7,284
7,438
7,185

901
929
898
866
791

2,333
2,603
2,634
2,623
2,612

4,034
4,226
4,248
4,290
4,084

9,386
9,742
10,004
10,247
10,235

1,919
1,991
2,069
2,146
2,234

5,382
5,576
5,730
5,867
6,002

1,928
2,302
2,420
2,305
2,188

4,098
4,087
4.188
4,340
4,563

1955....
1956
1957
1958
1959

. . 50,675
52,408
52,894
51,363
53,313

16,882
17,243
17,174
15,945
16,675

9,541
9,834
9,856
8,830
9,373

7,340
7,409
7,319
7,116
7,303

792
822
828
751
732

2,802
2,999
2,923
2,778
2,960

4,141
4,244
4,241
3,976
4,011

10,535
10,858
10,886
10,750
11,127

2,335
2,429
2,477
2,519
2,594

6,274
6,536
6,749
6,806
7,130

2,187
2,209
2,217
2,191
2,233

4,727
5,069
5,399
5,648
5,850

54,234
54,042
55,596
56,702
58,331

16,796
16,326
16,853
16,995
17,274

9,459
9,070
9,480
9,616
9,816

7,336
7,256
7,373
7,380
7,458

712
672
650
635
634

2,885
2,816
2,902
2,963
3,050

4,004
3,903
3,906
3,903
3,951

11,391
11,337
11,566
11,778
12,160

2,669
2,731
2,800
2,877
2,957

7,423
7,664
8,028
8,325
8,709

2,270
2,279
2,340
2,358
2,348

6,083
6,315
6,550
6,868
7,248

60,815
63,955
65,857
67,860
70,139

18,062
19,214
19,447
19,768
20,121

10,406
11,284
11,439
11,624
11,881

7,656
7,930
8,008
8,144
8,240

632
627
613
610
628

3,186
3,275
3,208
3,267
3,410

4,036
4,151
4,261
4,313
4,449

12,716
13,245
13,606
14,081
14,644

3,023 9,087
3,100 9,551
3,225 10,099
3,383 10, 592
3,558 11,102

2,378
2,564
2,719
2,737
2,756

7,696
8,227
8,679
9,109
9,471

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944

1960
1961..
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966 ..
1967
1968
1969 v

....

..

See footnotes at end of table.




208

TABLE C-27.—Wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments,

1929-69—Continued
[All employees; thousands of persons}
Manufacturing
Year or
month

Total
wage
and
salary
workers

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Mining

Contract
construction

Transportation
and
public
utilities

Wholesale
and
retail
trade

Finance,
insurance,
and
real
estate

Government
Services

Federal

State
and
local

Seasonally adjusted
1967: J a n . . .
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May..
June..

65,342
65,379
65,459
65,469
65,563
65,747

19,616
19,562
19,504
19,431
19,362
19,364

11,560
11,541
11,500
11,427
11,407
11,391

8,056
8,021
8,004
8,004
7,955
7,973

628
626
626
622
619
618

3,237
3,213
3,205
3,192
3,175
3,192

4,247
4,245
4,255
4,220
4,272
4,274

13,457
13,461
13,484
13,524
13,557
13,584

3,146 9,839
3,159 9,888
3,172 9,946
3,187 9,987
3,202 10,026
3,225 10,067

2,667
2,679
2,691
2,694
2,704
2,728

8,505
8,546
8,576
8,612
8,646
8,695

July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...

65,799
66, 016
66, 003
66, 083
66,600
66,734

19,307
19,437
19,335
19,329
19, 546
19, 582

11,356
11,471
11,321
11,297
11,497
11,513

7,951
7,966
8,014
8,032
8,049
8,069

621
606
601
598
597
598

3,203
3,200
3,199
3,208
3,242
3,243

4,286
4,268
4,264
4,251
4,277
4,275

13,615
13,642
13,687
13,695
13,777
13,781

3,231
3,252
3,264
3,271
3,288
3,304

10,116
10,161
10,207
10,250
10,330
10,370

2,735
2,735
2,721
2,718
2,719
2,719

8,685
8,715
8,725
8,763
8,824
8,862

1968: J a n . . .
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May..
June..

66, 720
67,165
67,286
67,466
67,550
67,816

19,617
19,627
19,631
19,702
19,737
19, 790

11,557
11,538
11,536
11,590
11,606
11,620

8,060
8,089
8,095
8,112
8,131
8,170

596 3,075
599 3,265
600 3,269
617 3,272
614 3,266
615 3,267

4,280
4,297
4,299
4,298
4,250
4,300

13,786
13,890
13,938
13,984
14,017
14, 057

3,314
3,327
3,336
3,348
3,359
3,363

10,398
10,465
10,490
10,488
10,510
10,554

2,721
2,724
2,721
2,723
2,724
2,774

8,933
8,971
9,002
9,034
9,073
9,096

July...
Aug...
Sept._
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...

67,945
68, 088
68,195
68,427
68,664
68, 875

19,804
19,800
19, 820
19, 840
19,897
19, 958

11,666
11,634
11,646
11,649
11,700
11,744

8,138
8,166
8,174
8,191
8,197
8,214

619 3,268
620 3,272
622 3,286
573 3,305
622 3,313
623 3,330

4,315
4,327
4,333
4,341
4,352
4,360

14,093
14,154
14,198
14,265
14,291
14,271

3,376
3,399
3,414
3,433
3,453
3,463

10, 582
10,625
10,635
10,721
10,787
10,838

2,779
2,743
2,721
2,708
2,709
2,724

9,109
9,148
9,166
9,241
9,240
9,308

1969: Jan...
Feb...
Mar..
Apr...
May..
June..

69,199
69,487
69,710
69, 789
70,013
70,300

19,999
20, 061
20,122
20,111
20,118
20,198

11,819
11,839
11,881
11,868
11,874
11,931

8,180
8,222
8,241
8,243
8,244
8,267

626
628
626
624
622
622

3,338
3,366
3,374
3, 363
3,407
3,466

4,353
4,373
4,399
.4,439
4,444
4,467

14,412
14,468
14, 508
14,533
14,609
14,665

3,490
3,502
3,515
3,531
3,541
3,557

10,900
10,967
11,034
11,044
11,065
11,066

2,760
2,767
2,759
2,758
2,754
2,790

9,321
9,355
9,373
9,386
9,453
9,469

July._
Aug._
Sept..
Oct...
Nov p_
Dec v.

70,247
70,500
70, 390
70,651
70,653
70,639

20,164
20,334
20,197
20,156
20,018
19,988

11,912
12,081
11,965
11,932
11,758
11,732

8,252
8,253
8,232
8,224
8,260
8,256

629
631
631
631
632
636

3,434
3,410
3,420
3,418
3,460
3,446

4,483
4,484
4,480
4,480
4,488
4,493

14,671
14, 702
14,716
14,809
14,823
14,785

3,568
3,581
3,586
3,595
3,610
3,615

11,067
11,120
11,150
11,244
11,265
11,288

2,777
2,752
2,749
2,729
2,721
2,713

9,454
9,486
9,461
9,589
9,636
9,675

Note.—Data in Tables C-27 through C-33 are based on reports from employing establishments and relate to full- and
part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during, or received pay for, any part of
the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Not comparable with labor force data (Tables C-22 through C-25), which include proprietors, self-employed persons,
domestic servants, and unpaid family workers, and which count persons as employed when they are not at work because
of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc.
For description and details of the various establishment data, see "Employment and Earnings."
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




209

TABLE

C-28.—Average weekly hours of work in selected nonagricultural

Year or month

Total
nonagricultural
private i

1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
.
1966
1967
1968
1969 v

40.3
40.0
39.4
39.8
39.9
39.9
39.6
39.1
39.6
39.3
38.8
38.5
39.0
38.6
38.6
38.7
38.8
38.7
38.8
38.6
38.0
37.8
37.7

Manufacturing

Total
44.2
42.1
40.5
38.3
38.1
34.6
36.6
39.2
38.6
35.6
37.7
38.1
40.6
43.1
45.0
45.2
43.5
40.3
40.4
40.0
39.1
40.5
40.6
40.7
40.5
39.6
40.7
40.4
39.8
39.2
40.3
39.7
39.8
40.4
40.5
40.7
41.2
41.3
40.6
40.7
40.6

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

Contract
construction

Retail
trade

Wholesale
trade

industries,
Bituminous
coal
and
lignite
mining

1968:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June _
July
Aug
Sept .
Oct...
Nov
Dec
1969:Jan
Feb
MarApr
May..
June
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov p
Dec p

37.7
37.9
37.8
37.7
37.8
37.9
37.9
37.9
37.9
37.8
37.6
37.6
37.8
37.5
37.8
37.8
37.8
37.8
37.8
37.8
37.8
37.6
37 6
37.5

40.2
40.7
40.8
40.1
40.9
40.9
40.9
40.7
41.0
40.9
40.8
40.8
40.6
40.1
40.9
40.8
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.6
40.8
40.5
40 5
40.6

Class 1
railroads

Telephone
communication

38 1
32.5
34.7
33.8
37.2
40.9
39.9
34.9
37.9
39.2
42.0
45.0
46.5
46.5
44.0
40.4
40.5
40.4
39.4
41.1
41.5
41.5
41.2
40.1
41.3
41.0
40.3
39.5
40.7
40.1
40.3
40.9
41.1
41.4
42.0
42.1
41.2
41.4
41.3

41.9
40.0
35.1
36.1
37.7
37.4
36.1
37.4
37.0
38.9
40.3
42.5
43.1
42.3
40.5
40.2
39.6
38.9
39.7
39.5
39.7
39.6
39.0
39.9
39.6
39.2
38.8
39.7
39.2
39.3
39.6
39.6
39.7
40.1
40.2
39.7
39.8
39.7

38.2
38.1
37.7
37.4
38 1
38.9
37.9
37 2
37.1
37.5
37.0
36.8
37.0
36.7
36.9
37.0
37.3
37.2
37.4
37.6
37.7
37 4
38.0

43.4
43.2
42.8
41.8
40.9
41.0
40.9
41.3
3 40.3
40.2
40.4
40.4
40 4
39.8
39.1
39 2
39.0
38.6
38.1
38.1
38.2
38.0
37.6
37.4
37.3
37.0
36.6
35.9
35.3
34 7
34.2

41.6
42 9
43 1
42 3
41.8
41 3
41.1
41.4
42 3
43.0
42.8
41 6
41.1
41.0
40.8
40.7
40 8
40.7
40.6
40 5
40.7
40.5
40.3
40.2
40.6
40.5
40 5
40 6
40 6
40 6
40 8
40 7
40.3
40 1
40.2

33 3
28 1
27 0
29 3
26 8
26 2
28 5
27 7
23 3
26.8
27 8
30.7
32.4
36 3
43.0
42.0
41 3
40.3
37.7
32.3
34.7
34 9
33.8
34.1
32 3
37.3
37.5
36.3
33.3
35.8
35.8
35 9
<37 0
*38 9
*39 2
MO 2
M0 8
M0.7
*39 7
40.0

41.0
41.3
41.4
40.6
41.6
41.6
41.5
41.3
41.6
41.6
41.6
41.3
41.3
40.9
41.5
41.4
41.4
41.3
41.2
41.3
41.5
41.2
41.1
41.2

39.3
39.9
39.9
39.2
39.9
40.0
39.9
39.9
40.0
39.9
39.7
39.9
39.8
39.1
39.9
39.8
39.8
39.8
39.7
39.6
39.7
39.5
39.5
39.8

36.5
37.6
36.9
37.7
37.5
37.5
37.3
37.5
37.5
37.5
36.2
37.6
38.2
38.0
37.9
38.0
38.1
37.6
37.5
37.9
38.1
37.5
38.2
38.2

43.7
44 3
45.8
47.0
48 7
48.9
48.5
46 0
46.4
46.2
43.7
40.8
41 0
40.6
40.6
40 8
41.9
41.7
41.7
41.6
41.9
41.7
42 3
42 6
42 9
43 5
43 6
43 9
43.2
43 9

38 8
38 9
39.1
39 5
40.1
40.5
41 9
42.3
a 41.7
39 4
37.4
39.2
38.5
38.9
39 1
38.5
38.7
38 9
39.6
39.5
39.0
38.4
39.2
39.6
39 4
39 9
40 0
40 2
40 4
40 6
39.3
39 7
40.4

Jnadjusted

Seasonally adjusted
1

1929-69

34.9
34.9
34.8
34.8
34.7
34.8
34.8
34.8
34.7
34.5
34.5
34.3
34.4
34.2
34.3
34.1
34.3
34.2
34.2
34.3
34.2
33.9
34.0
33.9

40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.2
40.1
40.2
40.2
40.1
40.0
40.0
40.1
40.1
40.1
40.2
40.1
40.0
40.0
40.3
40.3
40.3
40.2
40.3

40.7
40.6
41.1
40.5
40.5
41.5
40.9
40.6
29.0
40.6
41.1
41.6
40.7
38.8
41.5
40.5
35.7
40.8
40.5
40.6
39.5

44.3
44.0
42.7
44.3
45.0
43.0
44.7
43.7
42.9
44.5
43.9
43.8
44.7
45.3
43.0
44.3
44 5
43.5

39.2
39.1
39.1
38.6
38.1
39.9
40.2
39.9
40.6
40.6
41.5
39. S
40.0
40.6
39.9
39.5
39.8
40.4
40.8
40.3
40.8
40.4
40.8

Mn addition to industries shown separately, total includes other mining; other transportation and public utilities;
finance, insurance, and real estate; and services.
2 Nine-month average, April through December, because of new series started in April 1945.
3 Beginning 1947, data include eating and drinking places.
* Eleven-month average; excludes data for July.
Note.—Hours and earnings data in Tables C-28 through C-33 relate to production workers in manufacturing and mining,
to construction workers in contract construction, and generally, to nonsupervisory employees in other industries. See Table
C-31 for unadjusted weekly hours in manufacturing. See also Note, Table C-27.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




210

TABLE

C-29.—Average gross
IVlanufactu ing

Total
non-

Year or month agricultural
private

hourly

Total

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

earnings

Contract
construction

Retail
trade

in selected industries,
Bituminous
Whole- coal and
sale
lignite
trade
mining

1929-69

Class
railroads

Telephone
communica
tion

Agricultures

$0. 560

$0 659

$0,241

.546
.509
.441
.437
.526
.544
.550
.617
.620
.627

$0.492
.467
.550
.571
.580
.667
.679
.691

$0,412
.419
.505
.520
.519
.566
.572
.571

$0.484

$0,610
.628
.658
.674
.688

.662
.626
.503
.485
.651
.720
.768
.828
.849
.858

$0 774
.816
.822

226
172
129
115
129
.142
152
172
.166
.166

$1,131
1.225
1.275

.655
.726
.851
.957
1.011
1.016
1.075
1.217
1.328
1.378

.716
.799
.937
1.048
1.105
1.099
1.144
1.278
1.395
1.453

.590
.627
.709
.787
.844
.886
.995
1.145
1.250
1.295

$1,541
1.713
1.792

.494
.518
.559
.606
.653
.699
.797
4.838
.901
.951

.711
.763
.828
.898
.948
.990
1.107
1.220
1.308
1.360

.854
.960
1.030
1.101
1.147
1.199
1.357
1.582
1.835
1.877

.733
743
837
.852
.948
955
1 087
1.186
1.301
1.427

.827
820
843
870
.911
3
962
1 124
1.197
1.248
1.345

.169
206
268
.353
.423
472
515
.547
.580
.559

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954....
1955...
1956
1957
1958
1959

1.335
1.45
1.52
1.61
1.65
1.71
1.80
1.89
1.95
2.02

1.440
1.56
1.65
1.74
1.78
1.86
1.95
2.05
2.11
2.19

1.519
1.65
1.75
1.86
1.90
1.99
2.08
2.19
2.26
2.36

1.347
1.44
1.51
1.58
1.62
1.67
1.77
1.85
1.91
1.98

1.863
2.02
2.13
2.28
2.39
2.45
2.57
2.71
2.82
2.93

.983
1.06
1.09
1.16
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.37
1.42
1.47

1.427
5?
.61
70
76
.83
.94
2.02
2.09
2.18

1.944
2.14
2.22
2.40
2.40
2.47
2.72
2.92
2.93
3.11

1.572
1.73
1.83
1.88
1.93
1.96
2.12
2.26
2.44
2.54

1.398
1.49
1.59
1.68
1.76
1.82
1.86
1.95
2.05
2.18

.561
.625
.661
.672
.661
.675
.705
.728
.757
.798

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967 .
1968
1969 v

2.09
2.14
2.22
2.28
2.36
2.45
2.56
2.68
2.85
3.04

2.26
2.32
2.39
2.46
2.53
2.61
2.72
2.83
3.01
3.19

2.43
2.49
2.56
2.63
2.71
2.79
2.90
3.00
3.19
3.38

2.05
2.11
2.17
2.22
2.29
2.36
2.45
2.57
2.74
2.91

3.08
3.20
3.31
3.41
3.55
3.70
3.89
4.11
4.40
4.77

1.52
1.56
1.63
1.68
1.75
1.82
1.91
2.01
2.16
2.30

2.24
2.31
2.37
2.45
2.52
2.61
2.73
2.88
3.05
3.23

3.14
3.12
5 3.12
5 3.15
5
3. 30
5
3.49
5 3.66
5
3.75
5
3.86
4.17

2.61
2.67
2.72
2.76
2.80
3 00
3.09
3.24
3 44

2.26
2.37
2.48
2.56
2.62
2.70
2.79
2.88
3 04
3.24

.818
.834
.856
.880
.904
.951
1.03
1.12
1.21
1.33

1968: Jan....
Feb...
Mar...
Apr
MayJune...

2.76
2.78
2.79
2.80
2.83
2.84

2.94
2.94
2.96
2.97
2.99
3.00

3.13
3.12
3.14
3.15
3.18
3.18

2.67
2.68
2.69
2.70
2.72
2.73

4.36
4.29
4.30
4.29
4.34
4.31

2.09
2.11
2.12
2.13
2.14
2.16

2.96
3.00
3.01
3.02
3.04
3.04

3.82
3.79
3.79
3.77
3.78
3.82

3.33
3.38
3.35
3.35
3.34
3.40

2.90
2.90
2.91
2.89
2.96
3.05

1.24

July...
Aug...
Sept...
Oct....
Nov .
Dec...

2.85
2.85
2.90
2.91
2.92
2.92

3.00
2.99
3.04
3.06
3.08
3.11

3.18
3.17
3.23
3.24
3.27
3.30

2.75
2.75
2.78
2.79
2.80
2.82

4.36
4.40
4.49
4.52
4.54
4.55

2.16
2.16
2.19
2.20
2.22
2.21

3.04
3.04
3.09
3.08
3.11
3.12

3.78
3.80
3.79
4.13
4.14

3.46
3.49
3.53
3.50
3.56
3.55

3.04
3.06
3.14
3.16
3.19
3.17

1.18

1969: Jan....
Feb....
Mar...
Apr
May...
June...

2.94
2.96
2.97
2.98
3.01
3.03

3.12
3.12
3.13
3.15
3.16
3.17

3.31
3.31
3.32
3.33
3.35
3.36

2.83
2.84
2.85
2.87
2.88
2.89

4.58
4.56
4.62
4.64
4.71
4.71

2.24
2.26
2.26
2.27
2.29
2.30

3.12
3.16
3.16
3.18
3.20
3.24

4.12
4.12
4.11
4.16..
4.18..
4.09..

3.58
3.64
3.60
3.60
3.62
3.65

3.17
3.20
3.16
3.17
3.22
3.22

1.38

July...
Aug...
Sept.
Oct....
Nov *>._
Decp...

3.04
3.05
3.10
3.11
3.12
3.11

3.19
3.19
3.24
3.24
3.26
3.28

3.37
3.39
3.44
3.44
3.45
3.48

2.92
2.92
2.95
2.96
2.97
2.99

4.74
4.79
4.91
4.95
4.95
4.99

2.30
2.30
2.33
2.35
2.36
2.33

3.23
3.24
3.29
3 29
3. 33
3 34

"4." 14"
4.18
4.37
4.42

1929
1930
1931. .
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949-

*• For coverage, see footnote 1, Table C-28.
Weighted average of all farm wage rates on a per hour basis.
Nine-month average, April through December, because of new series started in April 1945.
* Beginning 1947, data include eating and drinking places.
6
Eleven-month average; excludes data for July.
Note—See Note, Tables C-27 and C-28.
Sources: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and Department of Agriculture.
2
3




211

$0,730

3.22
3.24
3.30
3.28
3.31

T6iT

I.~27~

I.~2T
1.29
1.37

TABLE

C-30.—Average gross weekly earnings in selected nonagricultural

Year or month

Total
nonagricultural
private i

Manufacturing

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurabie
goods

1929

$24.76

$26.84

23.00
20.64
16.89
16.65
18.20
19.91
21.56
23.82
22.07
23.64

24.42
20.98
15.99
16.20
18.59
21.24
23.72
26.61
23.70
26.19

21.40
20.09
17.26
16.76
17.73
18.77
19.57
21.17
20.65
21.36

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

$45. 58
49.00
50.24

24.96
29.48
36.68
43.07
45.70
44.20
43.32
49.17
53.12
53.88

28.07
33.56
42.17
48.73
51.38
48.36
46.22
51.76
56.36
57.25

21.83
24.39
28.57
33.45
36.38
37.48
40.30
46.03
49.50
50.38

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956..
1957
1958
1959

53.13
57.86
60.65'
63.76
64.52
67.72
70.74
73.33
75.08
78.78

58.32
63.34
67.16
70.47
70.49
75.70
78.78
81.59
82.71
88.26

62.43
68.48
72.63
76.63
76.19
82.19
85.28
88.26
89.27
96.05

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 v

80.67
82.60
85.91
88.46
91.33
95.06
98.82
101.84
107.73
114.61

89.72
92.34
96.56
99.63
102.97
107. 53
112.34
114.90
122.51
129.51

1968:Jan
Feb...
Mar
Apr
May
June

103.22
104. 53
104.90
104. 72
106. 69
108.20

July.
Aug
Sept...
Oct
Nov.
Dec...

Retail
trade

Wholesale
trade

$22.47

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

Contract
construction

industries,
Bituminous
coal
and
lignite
mining

Class 1
, railroads

1929-69
Telephone
communication

$25.11

$21.01

$26.75
25.19
25.44
25.38
26.96
28.36
28.51
28.76

22.04
17.59
13 58
14 21
17.45
18.86
21.89
22.94
19.78
22.99

$31.90

$30 03
31 74
32.14

$58.87
65.27
67.56

21.34
22.17
23.37
24.79
26.77
28.59
32.92
3 33.77
36.22
38.42

29.36
31.36
34.28
37.99
40.76
42.37
46.05
50.14
53.63
55.49

23.74
29 47
33.37
39.97
49 32
50.36
56.04
63.75
69.18
60.63

32.47
34 03
39.34
41.49
46 36
46.32
50.00
55.03
60.11
62.36

32.67
32 88
34 14
36 45
38 54
2
40 12
44 29
44.77
48.92
51 78

53.48
56.88
59.95
62.57
63.18
66.63
70.09
72.52
74.11
78.61

69.68
76,96
82.86
86.41
88.91
90.90
96.38
100. 27
103.78
108.41

39.71
42.82
43.38
45.36
47.04
48.75
50.18
52.20
54.10
56.15

58.08
62.02
65.53
69.02
71.28
74.48
78.57
81.41
84.02
88.51

67.46
74.69
75.04
81.84
77.52
92.13
102.00
106.00
97.57
111.34

64.14
70.93
74.30
76.33
78.74
82.12
88.40
94.24
101.50
106.43

54.38
58.26
61.22
65.02
68.46
72.07
73.47
76.05
78.72
85.46

97.44
100.35
104.70
108.09
112.19
117.18
122.09
123.60
132.07
139. 59

80.36
82.92
85.93
87.91
90.91
94.64
98.49
102.03
109. 05
115.53

113.04
118.08
122.47
127.19
132. 06
138.38
146.26
154.95
164. 56
181.26

57.76
58.66
60.96
62.66
64.75
66.61
68.57
70.95
74.95
78.66

90.72
93.56
96.22
99/47
102.31
106.49
111.11
116.06
122.31
129. 85

112.41
112.01
114.46
121.43
128.91
140.26
149.74
153.28
153.65
165.91

108.84
112.94
115.87
118.40
121.80
130. 80
135.65
139.97
151.02

89.50
93.38
98.95
102.40
105.32
109. 08
113.27
113.18
120.69
130.90

117.60
119.36
120.18
118.21
122.29
123. 30

127. 70
128. 54
129.68
127.26
132.29
132. 92

103.86
106.40
106.79
104.76
108.26
109.47

152.60
155.30
155. 60
160.02
163.18
165. 50

72.11
72.80
72.93
73.49
73.40
75.82

118.10
119.40
120.10
120.20
121.30
122.51

155.47
153.87
155.77
152.69
153.09
158.53

147. 52
148.72
143.05
148.41
150.30
146.20

113.68
113.39
113.78
111.55
112.78
121.70

108.87
109.16
110.49
110.29
109.50
110.38

122.10
121.69
125.25
125.77
125.97
127.82

131.02
130.29
135.01
135.43
136.36
137.61

110.00
110.55
112.03
111.88
111.72
113.08

168. 30'
170.72
173.76
173. 57
159. 35
168.81

77.33
77.33
75.99
75.46
75.70
76.47

123.12
122. 82
124.22
123.82
124.40
125. 74

157.70
154.60
154.28
109.91
167.68
170.15

154.66
152.51
151.44
155.75
156.28
155.49

122.21
122. 09
127.48
128.30
132.39
126.48

1969:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr _
MayJune

110.25
110.11
111.67
111.75
113.48
115.14

126. 05
124.80
127. 39
127. 58
128.61
129.65

136.04
135.05
137.45
137.20
138.69
139.44

111.50
110.48
113.15
113.08
114.34
115.31

168. 09
166. 90
171.86
174.46
179.92
181.34

76.16
76.39
76.61
76.73
77.63
79.35

124. 80
126. 08
126.40
127.20
128.00
129.92

171.39
167.68
159.47
172.64
169. 29
146. 01

160. 03
126. 80
164. 89
129.92
154.80
126. 08
159.48
125. 22
161.09 | 128.16
158.78
130.09

July
Aug
Sept
Oct p
Nov
Dec p

115.82
116 51
117 80
117.25
117 00
117.25

129.20
129 51
132 84
131.87
132 36
134.15

137. 83
139 33
143.45
142.42
142 14
144.77

116.22
116 51
118 00
117.51
117 91
119.60

183.91
187 77
192.96
190. 08
183 65
188.12

80.96
81 19
79.69
79.20
79.30
79.69

130.17
131.22
132. 59
132. 59
133.87
135.27

159.18
168 91
169.29
177.42
174.59

131.38
130 57
134.64
132. 51
135. 05

1
2

For coverage, see footnote 1, Table C-28.
Nine-month average, April through December, because of new series started in April 1945.
* Beginning 1947, data include eating and drinking places.
Note—See Note, Tables C-27 and C-28.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




212

TABLE C-31.—Average weekly hours and hourly earnings, gross and excluding overtime, in
manufacturing industries, 1939-69
Durable goods manufacturing industries

Al 1 manufacturing industries
Average
weekly
hours

Average
weekly
hours

Average hourly
earnings

Average
hourly
earnings

Nondurable goods manufacturing industries
Average
weekly
hours

Average
hourly
earnings

Year or month

Gross

Excluding
overtime

Gross

1939

37.7

$0,627

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

38.1
40.6
43.1
45.0
45.2
43.5
40.3
40.4
40.0
39.1

.655
.726
.851
.957
1.011
1.016
1.075
1.217
1.328
1.378

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

40.5
40.6
40.7
40.5
39.6
40 7
40.4 37.6
39.8 37.5
39.2 37.2
40.3 37.6

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 *

39.7
39.8
40.4
40.5
40.7
41.2
41.3
40.6
40.7
40.6

37.3
37.4
37.6
37.7
37.6
37.6
37.4
37.2
37.1
37.0

40.0
40.6
40.6
39.8
40.9
41.1

Ex- Adjusted
Exclud- hourly
cluding earnings, Gross ing
over- (1957over59=
time
time
100)i

37.4

$0.571

57.8
63.2
66.1

.716
.799 $6.762
937 .872
1.048 .966
1.105 1.019
1 0993 1 031
1 144 1.111
1.278 1.24
1.395 1.35
1 453 1.42

37.0
38.9
40 3
42.5
43.1
42 3
40.5
40.2
39.6
38 9

.590
.627
.709
.787
.844
.886
.995
1.145
1.250
1.295

1.440 1.39
1.56 1.51
1.65 1.59
1.74 1.68
1.78 1.73
1.86 1.79
1.95 1.89
2.05 1.99
2.11 2.05
2.19 2.12

68.2
73.6
77.4
81.6
84.3
86.9
91.5
96.2
100.2
103.4

41.1
41.5
41.5
41.2
40.1
41 3
41:0
40.3
39.5
40.7

38.0
37.9
37.6
38.0

1 519
1.65
1 75
1 86
1.90
1 99
2.08
2 19
2.26
2.36

1.46
1.59
1.68
1.79
1.84
1 91
2.01
2.12
2.21
2.28

39.7
39.5
39.7
39.6
39.0
39 9
39.6
39 2
38.8
39.7

37.2
37.0
36.6
37.0

1.347 1.31
1.44 1.40
1.51 1.46
1.58 1.53
1.62 1.58
1 67 1 62
1.77
1.72
1.85 1.80
1.91 1.86
1.98 1.92

2.26
2.32
2.39
2.46
2.53
2.61
2.72
2.83
3.01
3.19

2.20
2.25
2.31
2.37
2.44
2.51
2.59
2.72
2.88
3.05

106.8
109.9
112.7
115.5
118.4
121.5
125.6
131.5
139 5
147.7

40.1
40.3
40.9
41.1
41.4
42.0
42.1
41.2
41.4
41.3

37.7
38.0
38.1
38.2
38.1
38.1
37.8
37.7
37 6
37.5

2.43
2.49
2.56
2.63
2.71
2 79
2.90
3.00
3 19
3.38

2.36
2.42
2.48
2.54
2.60
2.67
2.76
2.88
3 05
3.23

39.2
39.3
39.6
39.6
39.7
40 1
40.2
39.7
39.8
39.7

36.7
36.8
36.9
36.9
36.8
36.9
36.8
36.6
36.5
36.3

2.05
2.11
2.17
2.22
2.29
2.36
2.45
2.57
2.74
2.91

1.99
2.05
2.09
2.15
2.21
2.27
2.35
2.47
2.63
2.79

36.7
37.3

2.94
2.94

2.83
2.83

3.00
3.00
3.02
3.03
3.04
3.04

39.7
38.8
39.8
40.1

35.9
36.6
36.6
36.1
36.6
36.7

2.57
2.58

37.8
37.4
37.8
37.9

3.13
3.12
3.14
3.15
3.18
3.18

2.67
2.68

2.84
2.86
2.87
2.87

40.8
41.2
41.3
40.4
41.6
41.8

38.9
39.7

2.96
2.97
2.99
3.00

136.1
136.9
137.5
138.2
138.6
138.8

37.3
37.8

37.3
36.9
37.3
37.4

2.69
2.70
2.72
2.73

2.59
2.61
2.61
2.62

40.7
40.7
41.2
"":::: 41.1
40.9
41.1

37.2
37.1
37.2
37.2
37.0
37.2

3.00
2.99
3.04
3.06
3.08
3.11

2.88
2.86
2.90
2.92
2.94
2.97

139.1
139.8
141.2
141.7
142.6
143.6

41.2
41.1
41.8
41.8
41.7
41.7

37.6
37.5
37.6
37.6
37.5
37.6

3.18
3.17
3.23
3.24
3.27
3.30

3.04
3.03
3.07
3.09
3.11
3.15

40.0
40.2
40.3
40.1
39.9
40.1

36.6
36.7
36.5
36.6
36.4
36.6

2.75
2.75
2.78
2.79
2.80
2.82

2.63
2.64
2.66
2.67
2.69
2.70

36.8
36.7
37.2

3.12
3.12
3.13

2.98
3.00
3.00

41.1
40.8
41.4
41.2
41.4
41.5

37.4
37.2
37.7
37.6
37.7
37.6

3.31
3.31
3.32
3.33
3.35
3.36

3.16
3.17
3.17
3.19
3.20
3.21

39.4
38.9
39.7
39.4
39.7
39.9

36.1
35.9
36.5
36.2
36.4
36.5

2.83
2.84
2.85
2.87
2.88
2.89

2.72
2.73
2.74
2.76
2.77
2.77

40.9
41.1
41.7
41.4
41.2
41.6

37.3
37.3
37.5
37.5
37.5
38.0

3.37
3.39
3.44
3.44
3.45
3.48

3.23 39.8
3.24 39.9
3.27 40.0
3.29 39.7
3.31 ,39.7
3.34 40.0

36.4
36.4
36.3
36.2
36.3
36.6

2.92
2.92
2.95
2.96
2.97
2.99

2.80
2.79
2.82
2.83
2.85
2.87

..

Apr
May....
June
July
Aug
Sept

oct
Nov
Dec

$0.691
.793
.881
.933
3.949
1.035
1.18
1.29
1.34

2 33.4
2 37.5
2 40.8
2 43.7
2 45.5
2 50.4

May

40 4
40.0
40.7
40 5
40.7

June

40.9

37.0
37.1
37.2

3.15
3.16
3.17

3.02
3.03
3.03

144.4
144.9
145.2
146.0
146.6
146.9

July

40.5
40.6
41.0
40.7
40.6
40.9

37.0
36.9
37.0
37.0
37.0
37.4

3.19
3.19
3.24
3.24
3.26
3.28

3.06
3.06
3.09
3.10
3.12
3.15

147.8
148.4
149.5
150.2
151.0
152.0

1969: Jan

Feb
Mar
Apr

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov p

Dec P

37.9

ExExExcludcludcluding Gross ing Gross ing
overoverovertime
time
time

39.2
42.0
45.0
46.5
46.5
44.0
40.4
40.5
40.4
39.4

1968: Jan
Feb
Mar

32.2

Gross

$0,691

1 Earnings in current prices adjusted to exclude the effects of overtime and interindustry shifts.
2 Annual average not available; April used.
3 Eleven-month average; August 1945 excluded because of VJ Day holiday period.
Note—See Note, Tables C-27 and C-28.
See Table C-28 for seasonally adjusted average gross weekly hours.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




213

$6,613
.684
.748
.798
3 841

.962
1.11
1.21
1.26

TABLE G—32.—Average weekly earnings, gross and spendable, total private nonagricultural
industries, in current and 1957-59 prices, 1947-69
Average spendable weekly earnings2
Average gross weekly
earnings
Year or month
Current
prices

1957-59
prices *

Worker with no
dependents
Current
prices

1957-59
pricesl

Worker with three
dependents
Current
prices

1957-59
prices1

$45.58
49.00
50.24

$58.59
58.47
60.53

$39.16
43.11
44.15

$50.33
51.44
53.19

$44.64
48.51
49.74

$57.38
57.89
59.93

53.13
57.86
60.65
63.76
64.52
67.72
70.74
73.33
75.08
78.78

63.40
63.93
65.57
68.41
68.93
72.58
74.70
74.83
74.56
77.62

46.02
48.68
50.07
52.45
53.76
56.27
58.63
60.47
61.83
64.52

54.92
53.79
54.13
56.28
57.44
60.31
61.91
61.70
61.40
63.57

52.04
55.79
57.87
60.31
60.85
63.41
65.82
67.71
69.11
71.86

62.10
61.65
62.56
64.71
65.01
67.96
69.50
69.09
68.63
70.80

80.67
82.60
85.91
88.46
91.33
95.06
98.82
101.84
107.73
114.61

78.24
79.27
81.55
82.91
84.49
86.50
87.37
87.57
88.89
89.75

65.59
67.08
69.56
71.05
75.04
78.99
81.29
83.38
86.71
90.96

63.62
64.38
66.00
66.59
69.42
71.87
71.87
71.69
71.54
71.23

72.96
74.48
76.99
78.56
82.57
86.30
88.66
90.86
95.28
99.99

70.77
71.48
73.05
73.63
76.38
78.53
78.39
78.13
78.61
78.30

103.22
104. 53
104.90
104.72
106.69
108.20

87.03
87.84
87.78
87.34
88.69
89.50

84.43
85.42
85.70
84.11
85.57
86.68

71.19
71.78
71.72
70.15
71.13
71.70

91.96
93.01
93.30
92.90
94.40
95.55

77.54
78.16
78.08
77.48
78.47
79.03

108.87
109.16
110.49
110.29
109.50
110.38

89.60
89.55
90.42
89.74
88.74
89.23

87.18
87.39
88.37
88.23
87.64
88.29

71.75
71.69
72.32
71.79
71.02
71.37

96.07
96.29
97.30
97.15
96.55
97.22

79.07
78.99
79.62
79.05
78.24
78.59

110.25
110.11
111.67
111.75
113.48
115.14

88.84
88.37
88.91
88.41
89.50
90.24

87.76
87.65
88.80
88.86
90.13
91.35

70.72
70.35
70.70
70.30
71.08
71.59

96.68
96.57
97.76
97.82
99.13
100.40

77.90
77.50
77.83
77.39
78.18
78.68

115.82
116.51
117.80
117.25
117.00
117.25

90.34
90.53
91.11
90.33
89.66
89.30

91.85
92.35
93.30
92.89
92.71
92.89

71.65
71.76
72.16
71.56
71.04
70.75

100.92
101.45
102.44
102.01
101.82
102. 01

78.72
78.83
79.23
78.59
78.02
77.69

1

Earnings in current prices divided by the consumer price index.
Average gross weekly earnings less social security and income taxes.
Note.—"Total private" consists of manufacturing; contract construction; retail and wholesale trade; mining; transportation and public utilities; finance, insurance, and real estate; and services.
See also Note, Tables C-27 and C-28.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2




214

TABLE C-33.—Average weekly earnings, gross and spendable, in manufacturing industries, in
current and 1957-59 prices, 1939-69
Average spendable weekly earnings2
Average gross weekly
earnings

Worker with no
dependents

Year or month
Current
prices

1957-59
pricesl

Current
prices

1957-59
prices'

Worker with three
dependents
Current
prices

1957-59
prices *

1939

$23.64

$48.84

$23.37

$48.29

$23.40

$48.35

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

24.96
29.48
36.68
43.07
45.70
44.20
43.32
49.17
53.12
53.88

51.15
57.47
64.58
71.43
74.55
70.49
63.71
63.20
63.39
64.92

24.46
27.96
31.80
35.95
37.99
36.82
37.31
42.10
46.57
47.21

50.12
54.50
55.99
59.62
61.97
58.72
54.87
54.11
55.57
56.88

24.71
29.19
36.31
41.33
43.76
42.59
42.79
47.58
52.31
52.95

50.64
56.90
63.93
68.54
71.39
67.93
62.93
61.16
62.42
63.80

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

58.32
63.34
67.16
70.47
70.49
75.70
78.78
81.59
82.71
88.26

69.59
69.99
72.61
75.61
75.31
81.14
83.19
83.26
82.14
86.96

50.26
52.97
55.04
57.59
58.45
62.51
64.92
66.93
67.82
71.89

59.98
58.53
59.50
61.79
62.45
67.00
68.55
68.30
67.35
70.83

56.36
60.18
62.98
65.60
65.65
69.79
72.25
74.31
75.23
79.40

67.26
66.50
68.09
70.39
70.14
74.80
76.29
75.83
74.71
78.23

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

89.72
92.34
96.56
99.63
102.97
107. 53
112.34
114.90
122. 51
129. 51

87.02
88.62
91.61
93.37
95.25
97.84
99.33
98.80
101.08
101.42

72.57
74.60
77.86
79.82
84.40
89.08
91.57
93.28
97.70
101.90

70.39
71.59
73.87
74.81
78.08
81.06
80.96
80.21
80.61
79.80

80.11
82.18
85.53
87.58
92.18
96.78
99.45
101.26
106.75
111.44

77.70
78.87
81.15
82.08
85.27
88.06
87.93
87.07
88.08
87.27

June.

117.60
119.36
120.18
118.21
112.29
123.30

99.16
100.30
100.57
98.59
101.65
101.99

95.33
96.66
97.29
94.07
97.08
97.83

80.38
81.23
81.41
78.46
80.70
80.92

103.43
104.85
105.50
103.23
106.38
107.16

87.21
88.11
88.28
86.10
88.43
88.64

July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..

122.10
121.69
125.25
125.77
125.97
127.82

100.49
99.83
102. 50
102.34
102. 08
103.33

96.94
96.64
99.27
99.65
99.80
101.17

79.79
79.28
81.24
81.08
80.88
81.79

106 23
105.91
108.66
109.06
109.22
110.65

87.43
86.88
88.92
88.74
88.51
89.45

1969: Jan..
Feb..
Mar_.
Apr..
May.
June.

126.05
124. 80
127.39
127. 58
128.61
129.65

101.57
100.16
101.43
100.93
101.43
101.61

99.36
98.44
100. 34
100.48
101.24
102.00

80.06
79.00
79.89
79.49
79.84
79.94

108.78
107. 82
109.81
109.95
110.74
111.54

87.66
86.53
87.43
86.99
87.33
87.41

July..
Aug.
Sept.
Oct__
Nov p
Dec p

129.20
129. 51
132.84
131.87
132. 36
134.15

100.78
100.63
102.74
101. 59
101.43
102.17

101.67
101.90
104. 34
103.63
103.99
105.30

79.31
79.18
80.70
79.84
79.69
80.20

111.20
111.44
114.01
113.25
113.63
115.03

86.74
86.59
88.17
87.25
87.07
87.61

P

1968: Jan..
Feb—
Mar..

1 Earnings in current prices divided by the consumer price index.
2 Average gross weekly earnings less social security and income taxes.
Note—See Note, Tables C-27 and C-28.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




215

TABLE C-34.—Indexes of output per man-hour and related data, private economy, 1947-69
[1957-59=100]
Output per man-hour
Nonfarm industries
Year

Total
private

Farm
Total

Man-hours2

Output i

NonMan- manufac- ufactur- turing
ing

Nonfarm industries
Total
private

Farm
Total

NonMan- manufac- ufactur- turing
ing

Nonfarm industries
Total
private

Farm
Total

NonMan- manufac- ufacturturing
ing

90.1
91.3
87.7

95.8
95.1
86.6

87.4
89 5
88.2

91.2 93.8
95.6 101.0
97.1 102.7
99.1 107.7
95.4 98.4

90.0
93.2
94 5
95.2
94.0

100.9 92.2
101.3 94.9
101.7 97.1
93.4 99.1
104.9 103.9

101.6 119.6 99.4 103.8
103.3 114.2 102.0 105.3
101.8 105.1 101.4 103.6
97.5 97.6 97.5 95.2
100.7 97.2 101.1 101.2

97.4
100.6
100.4
98.5
101.0

Establishment basis 3
49.8
58.0
56.5

74.1
76.5
79.5

72.3
76.4
79.3

75.1
76.3
79.6

67.6
70.8
70.6

82.1
91.8
88.9

66.8
69.8
69.7

69.3
72.7
68.7

65.6
68.3
70.2

80.3 64.4
82.7 64.7
84.3 70.3
87.8 79.6
89.9 •83.7

84.4
86.3
87.0
89.6
91.6

85.0
86.9
87.3
90.2
91.8

84.1
85.6
86.7
88.8
91.5

77.9
82.8
84.8
89.1
87.9

93.7
88.9
91.8
96.6
98.6

77.0
82.5
84.5
88.8
87.4

79.7
87.8
89.7
97.1
90.3

75.7
79.8
81.9
84.5
86.0

1955...
1956—
1957...
1958...
1959...

93.9 84.4 95.7 97.2 94.7
94.1 88.0 95.2 96.2 94.3
96.9 93.3 97.2 98.2 96.7
99.8 103.0 99.7 98.1 100.6
103.4 104.8 103.1 103.7 102.9

95.4
97.2
98.6
97.3
104.1

1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

105.0
108.6
113.8
117.9
122.5

110.7
119.4
122.2
133.1
135.5

104.4
107.4
112.3
115.7
120.0

105.5
107.9
114.3
118.9
124.7

103.9 106.6 105.8 106.7
107.4 108.6 107.2 108.7
111.5 116.0 106.8 116.5
114.3 120.8 110.1 121.4
118.0 127.8 107.7 128.8

106.4
106.0
116.8
122.7
131.2

106.8
110.1
116.3
120.8
127.7

101.5
100.0
101.9
102,5
104.3

95.6
89.8
87.4
82.7
79.5

102.2
101.2
103.7
104.9
107,3

100.9
98.2
102.2
103.2
105.2

102.8
102.5
104.3
105.7
108.2

1965...
1966—
1967—
1968...
1969 v_

126.6
131.7
134 3
138.7
139.9

148.1
153.8
168.5
168.5
181.4

123.6
127.9
129 9
134.2
134.8

129.8
131.8
132.1
139.2
142.8

120.5 136.2 114.5
125.8 144.9 108.2
128.7 148.2 114 5
131.6 155.6 112.6
130.6 160.1 113.5

143.9
155.4
155.3
166.6
173.6

134.0
142.6
147.3
153.5
157.0

107.5
110.1
110.4
112.2
114.4

77.3
70.1
67.7
66.6
62.4

111.1
114.8
115.4
117.6
120.6

110.9
117.9
117.6
119.7
121.6

111.2
113.4
114 4
116.6
120.2

1947... 69.0
1948... 72.0
1949... 74.2
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

101.0 95.1
100.5 97.1
98.1 98.6
100.5 97.2
101.9 104.2

137.3
146.9
150.0
157.9
162.6

98.0 164.8
98.4 158.4
95.1 157.3
97.0
100.1
100.6
101.5
97.8

145.6
137.5
130.6
121.4
117.8

Labor force basis 4
1947... 67.9
1948.
70.2
1949... 71.9

49.8
58.0
56.1

72.9
74.5
76.8

67.6
70.8
70.6

82.1
91.8
88.9

66.8
69.8
69.7

99.6 164.8
100.8 158.2
98.2 158.6

91.6
93.7
90.8

1950...
1951...
1952
1953
1954...

64.1
64.3
69.9
79 1
83.3

82.4
85.7
87 5
90 4
92.8

77.9
82.8
84.8
89 1
87.9

93 7
88.9
91 8
96 6
98.6

77.0
82.5
84.5
88 8
87.4

99.2
100.9
100.4
100.8
96.8

93.4
96.3
96.6
98.2
94.2

1955
1956—
1957
1958...
1959...

94.7 84.0 96.7
94.6 87.5 95.9
97.2 93.3 97.7
99.4 103.1 99.2
103.4 104.7 103.1

95.4
97.2
98.6
97.3
104.1

101.0 95.1
100.5 97.1
98.1 98.6
100.5 97.2
101.9 104.2

100.7 120.3 98.3
102.7 114.9 101.2
101.4 105.2 100.9
97.9 97.5 98.0
100.7 97.3 101.1

1960 ..
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964

104.5
107.3
113.0
116.7
121.0

110.7
119.9
122.3
133.5
135.8

103.8
105.9
111.4
114.4
118.4

106.6
108.6
116.0
120.8
127.8

105.8
107.2
106.8
110.1
107.7

106.7
108.7
116.5
121.4
128.8

102.0
101.2
102.7
103.5
105.6

95.6
89.4
87.3
82.5
79.3

102.8
102.6
104.6
106.1
108.8

1965...
1966—
1967—
1968...
1969 v.

125.0
130.7
133.3
138.6
140.1

148.3
153.7
168.2
169.1
182.0

121.8
126.7
128.7
133.9
134.8

136.2
144.9
148.2
155.6
160.1

114.5
108.2
114 5
112.6
113.5

137.3
146.9
150 0
157.9
162.6

108.9
110.9
111.2
112.3
114.3

77.2
70.2
67.8
66.3
62.4

112.8
115.9
116.5
117.9
120.6

78.5
82.1
84 5
88 4
90.8

1

146.2
138.3
131.3
122.1
118.3

Output refers to gross national product in 1958 prices.
2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including man-hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers.
3
Man-hours estimates based primarily on establishment data.
* Man-hours estimates based primarily on labor force data.
Note.—For information on sources, methodology, trends, and underlying factors influencing the measures, see Bureau
of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, Bulletin No. 1249 "Trends in Output per Man-Hour in the Private Economy,
1909-58," December 1959.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




2l6

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
TABLE G-35.—Industrial production indexes, major industry divisions, 1929—69
[1957-59=100]
Total
industrial
production

Year or month

Manufacturing
Mining
Total

Durable

Utilities

Nondurable

1929

38.4

38.6

38.2

38.3

54.2

12.7

1930
1931.
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

32 0
26.5
20.7
24.4
26.6
30.7
36 3
39.7
31.4
38.3

31.7
25.9
19.9
23.7
26.0
30.6
36 4
39.7
30.5
37.9

28.4
19.5
11.9
15.5
18.8
24.1
31.2
35.2
22.6
31.4

34.8
32.8
28.9
32.8
33.8
37.4
41.6
44.1
39.1
44.9

47.0
40.3
33.6
38.5
40.3
43.7
50.3
56.7
49.0
53.8

13.1
12.5
11.7
11.5
12.2
13.2
14.9
16.4
16.5
18.3

43.9
56 4
69.3
82.9
81.7
70.5
59.5
65 7
68.4
64.7

43.8
58.3
73.1
88.7
86.3
73.0
60.0
66 4
68.9
65.1

40.0
57.7
79.9
102.9
100.9
78.2
54.7
64.3
67.0
60.9

47.3
57.6
63.7
70.7
68.2
65.6
64.8
67.2
69.5
68.3

60.1
64.8
67.0
69.0
74.2
73.0
72.2
79.9
84.0
74.5

20.3
22.8
25.6
28.3
30.1
30.6
31.8
36.5
40.8
43.4

74.9
81.3
84.3
91.3
85.8
96.6
99.9
100.7
93.7
105.6

75.8
81.9
85.2
92.7
86.3
97.3
100.2
100.8
93.2
106.0

74.1
83.5
88.5
99.9
88.4
101.9
104.0
104.0
90.3
105.6

76.0
78.5
80.0
83.6
83.6
91.6
95.4
96.7
96.8
106.5

83.2
91.3
90.5
92.9
90.2
99.2
104.8
104.6
95.6
99.7

49.5
56.4
61.2
66.8
71.8
80.2
87.9
93.9
98.1
108.0

108.7
109.7
118.3
124.3
132.3
143.4
156.3
158.1
165.5
172.7

108.9
109.6
118.7
124.9
133.1
145.0
158.6
159.7
166.9
173.8

108.5
107.0
117.9
124.5
133.5
148.4
164.8
163.7
169.8
176.4

109.5
112.9
119.8
125.3
132.6
140.8
150.8
154.6
163.3
170.5

101.6
102.6
105.0
107.9
111.5
114.8
120.5
123.8
126.6
130.2

115.6
122.3
131.4
140.0
151.3
160.9
173.9
184.9
202.5
221.3

. ..

-.

1940...
1941
1942
.
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948.
1949
1950
1951
1952. .
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957 - .
1958
1959

.

.

..

I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966..
1967 . .
1968
1969'

Seasonally adjusted
161.5
162.5
163.3
163.0
164.9
166.0

163.1
163.9
164.7
164.4
166.4
167.6

167.5
167.9
168.2
167.3
169.9
171.2

157.7
158.9
160.2
160.7
162.0
163.0

121.9
124.3
126.5
127.2
127.9
128.6

196.1
198.5
198. C
196.8
198.4
198.9

166.5
165.1
165.9
166.3
167.8
168.7

167.8
166.0
166.9
167.9
169.2
170.1

171.2
167.9
168.6
169.4
171.0
172.1

163.5
163.6
164.8
166.1
167.1
167.5

130.3
129.7
127.3
120.8
126.6
127.8

202.0
204.7
206. S
209.2
207.2
210.6

1969:Jan.Feb
Mr
a
Apr
May—.
June

169.1
170.1
171.4
171.7
172.5
173.7

170.2
171.8
173.1
173.0
173.8
174.8

173.0
174.5
175.9
175.7
176.7
178.3

166.7
168.3
169.5
169.6
170.3
170.5

125.8
124.8
126.7
128.8
130.3
134.4

215.1
214.9
215.1
216.3
213.6
215.6

July. .
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec »

174.6
174.3
173.9
173.1
171.4
170.9

175.6
175.4
175.2
174.1
171.9
171.2

178.7
178.8
178.7
177.3
172.5
171.3

171.8
171.3
170.9
170.1
171.1
171.1

133.2
131.2
131.6
130.2
132.0
133.9

222.2
222.6
222.5
224.4
224. S
225.5

1968:Jan

Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June..

.

July
Aug
Sept.
Oct
Nov..
Dec

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




217

TABLE C-36.—Industrial production indexes, market groupings, 1947-69
[1957-59=1001
Final products

Year.or month

Total
industrial
production

Consumer goods *

Materials
Equipment

Total

Automotive
products

Home
goods

Total,
including
defense

Business

Total

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

1947.
1948.
1949.

65.7
68.4
64.7

64.2
66.6
64.5

67.1
69.2
68.8

69.4
72.6
72.0

68.8
71.7
66.3

55.4
58.3
52.0

69.9
72.6
63.5

67.0
70.2
64.8

68.2
71.0
64.2

64.9
68.2
64.2

1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

74.9
81.3
84.3
91.3
85.8

72.8
78.6
84.3
89.9
85.7

78.6
77.8
79.5
85.0
84.3

90.6
80.1
72.1
91.3
85.0

91.4
78.7
78.8
90.2
86.0

56.4
78.4
94.1
100.5
88.9

68.0
83.1
94.1
96.6
85.1

76.9
83.8
84.3
92.6
85.9

79.5
87.8
88.9
100.7
88.4

73.3
78.8
79.0
84.1
83.3

1955.
1956..
1957..
1958-.
1959..

96.6
99.9
100.7
93.7
105.6

93.9
98.1
99.4
94.8
105.7

93.3
95.5
97.0
96.4
106.6

118.3
97.8
105.2
86.7
108.1

97.3
100.9
96.6
92.8
110.7

95.0
103.7
104.6
91.3
104.1

91.9
104.7
105.3
89.8
104.9

99.0
101.6
101.9
92.7
105.4

104.7
105.3
104.8
90.0
105.1

93.0
97.7
98.9
95.4
105.7

1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

108.7
109.7
118.3
124.3
132.3

109.9
111.2
119.7
124.9
131.8

111.0
112.6
119.7
125.2
131.7

123.2
111.8
131.1
141.2
145.1

110.8
112.2
122.2
129.6
141.1

107.6
108.3
119.6
124.2
132.0

110.2
110.1
122.1
128.3
139.1

107.6
108.4
117.0
123.7
132.8

106.6
104.8
114.1
121.2
131.2

108.7
112.2
120.0
126.3
134.4

1965..
1966.
1967..
1968..
1969 "

143.4
156.3
158.1
165.5
172.7

142.5
155.5
158.3
165.1
170.8

140.3
147.5
148.5
156.9
162.4

167.2
163.0
149.1
174.3
172.9

154.8
168.9
166.0
175.4
184.1

147.0
172.6
179.4
182.6
188.6

156.7
181.2
182.8
184.7
195.6

144.2
157.0
157.8
165.8
174.6

144.3
156.9
151.9
157.8
165.5

144.1
157.2
163.9
174.1
184.0

Seasonally adjusted
1968:Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June

161.5
162.5
163.3
163.0
164.9
166.0

161.2
162.2
163.5
162.2
163.7
165.5

151.9
153.1
155.0
154.0
155.5
157.4

164.7
162.7
173.0
169.3
178.3
179.8

168.4
171.5
173.5
170.1
170.4
173.2

181.1
181.6
181.9
179.8
181.3
183.1

183.1
182.9
183.5
181.5
182.9
184.2

162.3
162.6
162.9
163.8
166.4
167.0

155.4
156.4
156.5
158.1
160.4
160.4

169.5
168.9
169.5
169.7
172.6
173.8

July.
Aug_
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec

166.5
165.1
165.9
166.3
167.8
168.7

165.2
165.4
166.0
167.3
167.6
167.9

157.2
157.6
157.9
159.0
159.2
160.2

180.4
177.0
175.5
178.9
180.8
177.8

172.3
174.5
175.9
176.9
178.6
180.4

182.5
181.9
183.7
183.6
185.5
184.5

183.3
182.4
185.5
187.7
190.3
189.3

168.2
164.6
166.3
165.9
168.1
168.8

161.3
153.9
155.4
155.4
158.6
158.9

175.3
175.7
177.4
176.6
177.9
179.0

1969:Jan..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June

169.1
170.1
171.4
171.7
172.5
173.7

168.2
169.3
170.8
170.2
170.0
170.7

161.0
161.7
162.8
161.8
160.7
161.5

176.2
174.7
175.4
166.1
165.8
178.7

184.3
183.0
186.3
186.1
185.9
186.1

183.5
185.5
187.8
188.4
190.0
190.4

191.4
191.9
192.9
194.1
195.7
197.0

169.6
170.8
172.1
172.9
174.5
176.3

161.2
162.6
164.0
165.8
165.5
167.0

178.3
179.2
180.3
180.3
183.7
185.9

July.
Aug.
Sept
Oct..
Nov_
Dec

174.6
174.3
173.9
173.1
171.4
170.9

172.8
172.7
172.2
170.7
168.0
167.6

164.4
164.2
162.8
160.8
159.6
159.1

184.6
179.5
176.6
172.8
167.5
161

184.4
184.5
181.2
179.5
167.7

190.8
190.3
192.4
191.8
185.9
185.8

196.9
197.0
200.4
200.8
194.6
195

176.5
175.9
176.0
175.9
174.6
174.0

167.0
167.3
166.6
165.8
163.1
162

186.4
184.7
185.5
186.3
186.5
187

1

Also includes apparel and consumer staples, not shown separately.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




2l8

TABLE G-37.—Industrial production indexes, selected manufactures, 1947-69
[1957-59=100]
Durable manufactures

Nondurable manufactures

Instruments
and related
products

Chemical,
petroleum,
and
rubber
products

Primary
metals

Machinery

1947.
1948.
1949.

90.7
94.3
79.4

75.9
77.2
69.8

65.3
66.5
59.0

42.9
46.9
47.1

53.7
55.2
49.2

75.8
79.7
72.3

73.5
77.4
71.6

81.0
84.5
80.6

66.7
69.4
69.3

47.5
50.8
49.4

80.7
80.0
80.8

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

99.9
108.7
99.3
112.5
91.3

85.4
91.2
89.0
100.3
90.2

72.7
83.0
92.1
100.5
87.7

56.4
62.9
73.1
91.7
83.8

57.3
65.7
78.1
85.3
82.9

87.7
92.0
89.3
92.7
89.6

83.7
80.2
82.4
89.7
86.8

89.1
87.4
89.5
90.7
86.9

76.7
79.4
77.7
82.6
85.0

60.7
67.4
69.9
75.2
74.7

83.6
85.4
87.3
88.2
89.8

1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..

118.4
116.4
112.2
87.5
100.4

98.3
98.8
101.5
92.9
105.5

96.5
107.1
104.2
88.8
107.1

102.0
97.4
106.4
89.5
104.0

88.7
95.4
98.0
92.1
109.9

100.7
102.0
97.5
94.1
108.5

97.9
101.0
97.6
93.3
109.0

95.5
98.0
96.9
95.0
108.1

92.5
97.1
97.8
97.0
105.2

86.8
91.4
95.6
95.5
108.9

93.1
96.6
96.7
99.4
103.9

I960..
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

101.3
98.9
104.6
113.3
129.1

107.6
106.5
117.1
123.4
132.7

110.8
110.4
123.5
129.2
141.4

108.2
103.6
118.3
127.0
130.7

116.5
115.8
123.0
130.2
136.4

105.7
104.5
109.3
114.4
121.1

113.3
114.1
124.5
129.1
138.4

107.5
108.4
115.1
118.5
125.2

109.0
112.4
116.7
120.1
127.5

113.9
118.9
131.2
141.8
152.5

106.6
110.2
113.3
116.8
120.8

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968....
1969 P..

137.6
142.7
132.5
137.0
149.2

147.8
163.0
161.9
167.9
179.8

160.5
183.8
183.4
184.3
195.6

149.2
166.9
165.7
179.5
174.6

151.4
176.5
184.8
184.2
194.2

127.6
132.9
130.7
137.4
142.1

151.8
165.0
162.6
169.9
176.6

135.8
141.6
139.4
144.8
143.9

135.3
146.4
149.6
155.5
164.7

164.6
181.9
190.0
207.7
222.4

123.4
128.1
131.7
135.3
138.9

Transportation
equipment

Clay,
glass,

and
lumber

Furniture
and
miscellaneous

Textile,
apparel,
and
leather
products

Fabricated
metal
products

Year or
month

Paper
and
printing

Foods,
beverages,
and
tobacco

Seasonally adjusted

138.1
140.3
140.3
144.3
148.1
148.6

163.9
165.7
166.5
161.3
164.9
167.6

183.4
183.5
183.3
179.4
180.4
181.7

175.6
175.1
177.6
175.3
180.4
182.6

186.7
184.7
183.8
181.4
181.2
181.3

132.7
130.7
129.0
137.8
137.9
137.1

165.2
166.9
166.9
166.5
169.8
169.5

141.1
141.9
143.9
144.2
144.8
145.6

150.0
150.1
152.4
152.3
155.1
155.2

197.9
200.5
201.6
202.9
204.6
206.3

132.8
133.7
133.9
134.3
134.4
135.6

147.4
124.1
120.6
123.2
127.9
134.8

166.1
166.2
167.5
172.1
173.7
175.4

183.0
183.8
186.4
186.2
187.4
188.5

183.2
181.7
180.5
180.4
180.0
176.4

179.2
182.6
184.3
185.8
188.5
189.7

136.2
135.3
138.8
140.0
140.5
144.3

169.5
170.1
170.9
172.2
173.4
173.4

144.3
144.1
144.8
146.9
147.3
145.1

155.8
156.9
158.2
158.0
158.8
160.8

208.0
208.3
211.0
213.1
216.7
215.9

136.0
135.2
135.3
136.3
135.0
137.3

Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.

139.5
143.6
146.2
147.9
149.3
153.1

176.4
177.6
178.5
178.3
179.2
180.6

191.8
192.7
194.7
194.6
196.9
197.2

171.2
173.1
174.1
172.4
171.8
176.6

191.6
190.4
192.8
195.4
195.3
195.7

143.8
145.6
145.1
143.2
143.6
140.6

176.6
175.7
176.5
178.4
179.0
179.1

143.6
142.6
144.7
143.7
146.3
146.0

160.2
161.2
162.2
162.4
163.8
164.4

214.1
218.0.
219.6
221.7
222.7
223.2

138.0
139.5
139.8
138.2
136.9
137.0

July..
Aug_.
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec p.

1969:

Jan...
Feb...
Mar_.
Apr__
May..
June..
July..
Aug_.
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec...

1968:

152.4
151.3
149.3
150.4
151.1
151

179.1
180.6
179.1
179.5
179.2
180

198.1
199.4
201.2
198.9
188.2
188

181.1
179.1
178.8
175.7
168.2
164

194.7
194.9
195.4
193.9
194.9
194

138.3
140.2
140.6
140.6
141.0
141

176.3
176.2
175.4
174.7
175.2
174

145.4
143.3
141.1
141.7
141.3
142

165.9
166.3
165.8
165.7
166.9
166

225.2
222.4
223.3
224.3
224.9
224

138.4
141.0
140.4
136.2
138.6
140

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




219

TABLE G-38.—Manufacturing output, capacity, and utilization rate, 1948-69
Utilization rate 2
Output

Capacity *

Period

Total

Advanced
products

1957-59 output=100

Primary
products

Percent

68.9
65.1

76.8
81.1

89.7
80.2

87 9
80 3

92 2
80 0

1950
1951
1952.
1953
1954

75.8
81.9
85.2
92.7
86.3

84.3
87.4
92.7
98.4
103.3

90.4
94.0
91.3
94.2
83.5

87 3
91 0
91 9
94.1
83.8

94 8
98 1
90 4
94 4
83.0

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

97.3
100.2
100.8
93.2
106.0

108.4
114.3
120.7
125.8
130.1

90.0
87.7
83.6
74.0
81.5

87 8
86.0
82.3
73.6
81.0

93 2
90 1
85 3
74.6
82.1

108.9
109.6
118.7
124.9
133.1

134.9
139.6
144.4
149.8
155.6

80.6
78.5
82.1
83.3
85.7

81.1
78.9
82.5
83.1
84.4

80.0
78.1
81.6
83.6
87.4

145.0
158.6
159.7
166.9
173.8

164.0
175.0
186.1
196.9
207.7

88.5
90.5
85.3
84.6
83.7

87.6
90.5
85.9
83.8
81.5

89.7
90.5
84.6
85.8
86.8

1948.
1949

.

.

. . .
.._

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

.

1965
1966
1967
1968.
1969 v

Seasonally adjusted
121.3
124.9
126.0
127.2

IV

1965:

1

II
III
IV

1966: 1

.

II

III „ .

IV
1967: 1
II
Ill

IV
1968:1

_

III
IV

1969"

.

1 *
|| V

HI v
IV *

-

-—
-

_

81.7
85.2
83.9
83.8

153.3
154.9
156.4
158.0

84.5
85.7
86.3
86.2

83.8
84.7
84.9
84.4

85.5
87.1
88.3
88.8

160.1
162.7
165.3
167.9

88.5
88.4
88.5
88.6

87.2
87.1
87.4
88.7

90.2
90.1
90.1
88.5

170.7
173.6
176.5
179.3

90.5
90.8
90.6
90.0

90.2
90.4
90.6
90.6

90.9
91.4
90.6
89.1

159.0
157.5
158.3
161.3

. .

IN

82.2
82.9
83.6
83.7

154.5
157.7
159.9
161.7

1964- 1
II

82.0
83.9
83.7
83.7

141.4
143.5
146.1
148.9

III
IV

147.8
149.1
150.5
151.8

129.4
132.5
134.7
135.9

1963: 1
II

182.1
184.8
187.5
190.1

87.1
85.0
84.3
84.8

87.8
86.2
85.1
84.3

86.2
83.4
83.2
85.6

163.9
166.1
166.9
169.1

192.8
195.5
198.2
200.9

85.0
85.1
84.2
84.2

84.5
83.8
83.7
83.2

85.7
86.9
84.9
85.6

171.7
173.9
175.4
172.4

203.6
206.3
208.9
212.2

84.5
84.5
84.2
81.8

82.7
82.2
82.3
79.0

87.0
87.8
86.7
85.6

1 For description and source of data see "A Revised I ndex of Manufacturing Capacity " Frank de Leeuw, Frank E. Hopkins,
and Michael D. Sherman "Federal Reserve Bulletin". November 1966, pp. 1605-1615. See also McGraw-Hill surveys on
'Business Plans for New Plants and Equipment" for data on capacity and oparating rates.
2
Output as percent of capacity; based on unrounded data.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (output) and sources in footnote 1 (capacity and utilization
rate).




220

TABLE C-39.—Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1947-69l
[Billions of dollars]

Manufacturing
Year or quarter

Total
Total

Transportation

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Mining

Railroad

Other

Public
utilities

Commercial
and
others

1950
1951
1952
1953...
1954
1955.
1956...
1957
1958
1959

. .

1960
1961
1962. .
1963
1964
1965...
1966
1967
1968 .
1969 P

. .

8.44
9.01
7.12

3.25
2 45

5.19
5.71
4.68

0.69
.93
.88

0.91
1.37
1.42

1.30
1.28
.87

1.54
2.54
3.10

6.45
6.16
5.58

7.39
10.71
11.45
11.86
11.24

2.94
4.82
5.21
5.31
4.91

4.45
5.89
6.24
6.56
6.33

.84
1.11
1.21
1.25
1.28

1.18
1.58
1.50
1.42
.93

1 19
1 46
1.47
1.53
1.47

3.24
3.56
3.74
4.34
3.99

6 36
7.04
7.06
7.79
8.27

29.53
35.73
37.94
31.89
33.55

11.89
15.40
16.51
12.38
12.77

5.41
7.45
7.84
5.61
5.81

6.48
7.95
8.68
6.77
6.95

1.31
1.64
1.69
1.43
1.36

1.02
1.37
1.58
.86
1.02

1.55
1.65
1.71
1.43
2.10

4.03
4.52
5.67
5.52
5.14

9.73
11.15
10.79
10.27
11.16

36.75
35.91
38.39
40.77
46.97

. .

19.33
21.30
18.98
20.21
25.46
26.43
28.20
27.19

1947...
1948
1949

15.09
14.33
15.06
16.22
19.34

7.23
6.31
6.79
7.53
9.28

7.85
8.02
8.26
8.70
10.07

1.30
1.29
1.40
1.27
1.34

1.16
.82
1.02
1.26
1.66

1.97
1.96
2.17
1.98
2.52

5.24
5.00
4.90
4.98
5.49

11.99
12.52
13.84
15.06
16.63

54.42
63.51
65.47
67.76
75.30

23.44
28.20
28.51
28.37
31.74

11.50
14.06
14.06
14.12
15.99

11.94
14.14
14.45
14.25
15.74

1.46
1.62
1.65
1.63
1.87

1.99
2.37
1.86
1.45
1.83

2.91
3.39
3.77
4.15
4.20

6.13
7.43
8.74
10.20
11.56

18.49
20.50
20.94
21.97
24.10

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
65.23
65.60
65.48
65.66

29.78
29.16
27.85
27.51

14.46
14.26
13.92
13.71

15.32
14.90
13.93
13.80

1.54
1.52
1.76
1.78

2.12
1.78
1.72
1.82

3.04
3.81
4.01
4.20

7.98
8.51
8.86
9.46

20.76
20.83
21.28
20.90

III
IV...

68.09
66.29
67.77
69.05

28.02
27.84
28.86
28.70

14.11
13.51
14.47
14.39

13.91
14.33
14.40
14.31

1.80
1.66
1.57
1.52

1.68
1.49
1.29
1.34

4.31
3.47
4.34
4.62

10.08
10.24
9.82
10.63

22.20
21.59
21.89
22.24

1969: 1
II....
III

72.52
73.94
77.84

29.99
31.16
33.05

15.47
15.98
16.53

14.52
15.18
16.52

1.83
1.88
1.89

1.68
1.76
2.06

4.76
3.88
3.88

11.52
11.68
11.48

22.74
23.59
25.49

1967' 1
II
III
IV .
1968: 1

.

1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit
organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the fixed investment data in the gross national product estimates,
mainly because those data include investment by farmers, professionals, institutions, and real estate firms, and certain
outlays charged to current account.
2
Commercial and other includes trade, service, finance, insurance, communications, and construction.
Note.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures.
Series revised beginning 1947. Comparable data prior to 1947 are not available. A full description of the new actual expenditure series will appear in the January 1970 issue of the "Survey of Current Business" and of the revised expectations
data in the February 1970 issue.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Office of Business Economics) and Securities and Exchange Commission.

372-111 O—70




221

TABLE G-40.—New construction activity, 1929-69
[Value put in place, millions of dollars]
Private construction

Year or month

Total
new
construction

Residential building (nonfarm)

Public construction

Nonresidential building and other
construction

Total

Total

Total*

New
housing
units

Total

Commercials

Industrial

Federally
owned

State
and
locally
owned *

Others

1929

10,793

8,307

3,625

3,040

4,682

1,135

949

2,598

2,486

155

2,331

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

8,741
6 427
3,538
2,879
3,720
4,232
6,497
6,999
6,980
8,198

5,883
3,768
1,676
1,231
1,509
1,999
2,981
3,903
3,560
4,389

2,075
1 565
630
470
625
1,010
1,565
1,875
1,990
2,680

1,570
1,320
485
290
380
710
1,210
1,475
1,620
2,270

3,808
2,203
1,046
761
884
989
1,416
2,028
1,570
1,709

893
454
223
130
173
211
290
387
285
292

532
221
74
176
191
158
266
492
232
254

2,383
1,528
749
455
520
620
860
1,149
1,053
1,163

2,858
2,659
1,862
1,648
2,211
2,233
3,516
3,096
3,420
3,809

209
271
333
516
626
814
797
776
717
759

2,649
2.388
1,529
1,132
1,585
1,419
2,719
2,320
2,703
3,050

8,682
11,957
14,075
8,301
5,259
5,809
12,627

5,054
6,206
3,415
1,979
2,186
3,411
10,396

2,985
3,510
1,715
885
815
1,276
4,752

2,560
3,040
1,440
710
570
720
3,300

2,069
2,696
1,700
1,094
1,371
2,135
5,644

348
409
155
33
56
203
1,153

442
801
346
156
208
642
1,689

1,279
1,486
1,199
905
1,107
1,290
2,802

3,628
5,751
10,660
6,322
3,073
2,398
2,231

1,182
3,751
9,313
5,609
2,505
1,737
865

2,446
2,000
1,347
713
568
661
1,366

14,308
20,041
26,078
26,722

12,077
16,722
21,374
20,453

6,247
9,850
13,128
12,428

4,795
7,765
10,506
10,043

5,830
6,872
8,246
8,025

1,153
957
1,397
1,182

1,689
1,702
1,397
972

2,988
4,213
5,452
5,871

2,231
3,319
4,704
6,269

865
840
1,177
1,488

1,366
2,479
3,527
4,781

33,575
35,435
36,828
39,136
41,380
46,519
- - . . 47,601
49,139
50,153
55,305

26,709
26,180
26,049
27,894
29,668
34,804
34,869
35,080
34,696
39,235

18,126
15,881
15,803
16,594
18,187
21,877
20,178
19, 006
19,789
24,251

15,551
13,207
12,851
13,411
14,931
18,242
16,143
14,736
15,445
19,233

8,583
10,299
10,246
11,300
11,481
12,927
14,691
16,074
14,907
14,984

1,415
1,498
1,137
1,791
2,212
3,218
3,631
3,564
3,589
3,930

1,062
2,117
2,320
2,229
2,030
2,399
3,084
3,557
2,382
2,106

6,106
6,684
6,789
7,280
7,239
7,310
7,976
8,953
8,936
8,948

6,866
9,255
10,779
11,242
11,712
11,715
12,732
14,059
15,457
16,070

1,624
2,981
4,185
4,139
3,428
2,769
2,726
2,974
3,387
3,724

5,242
6,274
6,594
7,103
8,284
8,946
10,006
11,085
12,070
12,346

53,941
55,447
59,576
62,755

38,078
38,299
41,707
43,859

21,706
21,680
24,292
25,843

16,410
16,189
18,638
20,064

16,372
16,619
17,415
18,016

4,180
4,674
4,955
5,200

2,851
2,780
2,949
2,962

9,341
9,165
9,511
9,854

15,863
17,148
17,8S9
18,896

3,622
3,879
3,913
3,970

12,241
13,269
13,956
14,926

59,667
63,423
66,200
72 319
75,120
76,160
84,690
92,020

41,798
44,057
45,810
50,253
51,120
50,587
56,996
63,730

24,292
26,187
26,258
26,268
23,971
23,736
28,823
31 600

18,638
20,385
20,354
20,351
17,964
17,885
22,423
23,640

17,506 5,144
17,870 4,995
19,552 5,396
23,985 6,739
27,149 6,879
26,851 6,982
28,173 8,333
32,130 10,010

2,842
2,906
3,565
5,118
6,679
6,131
5,594
6,380

9,520
9,969
10,591
12,128
13,591
13,738
14,246
15,740

17,869
19,366
20,390
22,066
24,000
25,573
27,694
28,290

3,913
4,010
3,905
4,018
3,957
3,512
3,456
3,430

13,956
15,356
16,485
18,048
20,043
22,061
24,238
24,860

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
New series5
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
New seriesfl
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 7...

See footnotes at end of table.




222

TABLE C-40.—New construction activity, 1929-69—Continued
[Value put in place, millions of dollars]

Public construction

Private construction

Residential building (nonfarm)

Total
Year or month

new

construction

Total

Total*

New
housing
units

Nonresidential building and other
construction

Total

Commercial

Industrial

Total
Others

State
Fedand
erally locally
owned owned «

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1968: Jan
Feb....
Mar....
Apr....
May....
June...

82,873
83,884
83,572
85,299
85,707
82,050

55,316
55,380
56,055
57,403
57,260
54,981

26,988
26,754
27,698
29,320
29,628
28,187

21,226
21,282
21,677
22,300
22,312
21,450

28,328
28,626
28,357
28,083
27,632
26,794

7,721
8,328
8,258
8,512
8,111
8,122

6,330
5,740
5,528
5,484
5,275
4,852

14,277
14,558
14,571
14,087
14,246
13,820

27,557
28,504
27,517
27,896
28,447
27,069

3,528
3,692
3,561
3,381
3,436
3,287

24,029
24,812
23,956
24,515
25,011
23,782

July....
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov....
Dec...

81,658
83,736
85,266
87,757
87,812
88,068

54,988
56,682
57,444
59,259
59,014
58,899

27,770
28,325
29,350
29,823
30,152
30,937

21,248
21,919
22,771
23,562
24,118
24,953

27,218
28,357
28,094
29,436
28,862
27,962

8,272
8,641
8,534
8,939
8,262
8,046

4,752
5,575
5,492
6,096
6,271
5,905

14,194
14,141
14,068
14,401
14,329
14,011

26,670
27,054
27,822
28,498
28,798
29,169

3,052
3,384
3,340
3,539
3,545
3,839

23,618
23,670
24,482
24,959
25,253
25,330

1969: Jan
Feb....
Mar....
Apr
May....
June....

91,972
92,066
91,722
92,696
92,254
91,539

62,875
62,550
62,762
62,962
63,564
63,197

31,084
31,436
32,423
32,930
32,866
31,805

24,972
25,472
25,458
24,995
24,490
23,887

31,791
31,114
30,339
30,032
30,698
31,392

9,971
9,941
9,751
9,066
9,284
10,020

6,800
6,318
6,019
5,857
5,923
6,050

15,020
14,855
14,569
15,109
15,491
15,322

29,097
29,516
28,960
29,734
28,690
28,342

3,551
3,463
3,530
3,784
3,488
3,574

25,546
26,053
25,430
25,950
25,202
24,768

91,787
91,687
S e p t . . . 93,608
O c t . . - 93,896
N O V P . . 91,950

64,242
64,008
65,564
65,811
63,756

31,385
30,880
31,053
31,530
31,203

23,214
22,577
22,624
23,003
22,604

32,857
33,128
34,511
34,281
32,553

10,417
10,343
11,118
10,856
9,557

6,404
6,414
6,714
6,946
6,526

16,036
16,371
16,679
16,479
16,470

27,545
27,679
28,044
28,085
28,194

3,114
3,413
3,431
3,437
3,168

24,431
24,266
24,613
24,648
25,026

July
Aug

1
2
3
4
5

Total includes additions and alterations and nonhousekeeping units not shown separately.
Office buildings, warehouses, stores, restaurants, and garages.
Farm, institutional, public utilities, and all other private.
Includes Federal grants-in-aid for State and locally owned projects.
New series in 1946 reflects differences due to the new higher level series of housing starts and farm construction expenditures and the reduced level value in place series for public utilities. See "Construction Report C30-61 (Supplement)"
for6 a description of the differences.
New series differs from old in that it reflects differences in 1962 due to the introduction of new series for private nonresidential buildings and differences in 1963 due to the introduction of new series for State and locally owned public
construction. See "Construction Report C30-65S" for a description of the differences.
7
Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, except as noted.




223

TABLE G-41.—New housing starts and applications for financing, 1929-69
[Thousands of units]
Housing starts
Private and
public i

Private i
Total (farm and nonfarm)

Year or
month

Total
(farm
and
nonfarm)

Proposed
home construction «
Nonfarm

Type of
structure 2

Nonfarm
Total

Government
home programs
Total

One
family

Two or
more
families

FHA3

VA

New
private
housing
AppliReunits
author- cations quests
for
for
ized*
VA
FHA
apcompraismitals
ments 3

1929.

509.0

509.0

1930.
1931.
1932.
1933.
1934.
1935.
1936.
1937.
1938.
1939.

330.0
254.0
134.0
93.0
126.0
221.0
319.0
336.0
406.0
515.0

13.2
48.8
57.0
106.8
144.7

6 20.6
47.8
49.
131.1
179.8

1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944.

602.6
706.1
356.0
191.0
141.8

330.0
254.0
134.0
.
93.0
126.0
215.7
304.2
332.4
399.3
458.4
529.6
619.5
301.2
183.7
138.7

176.6
217.1
160.2
126.1
83.6

231.2
288.5
238.5
144.4
62.9

326.1
1,023.2
1,268.5
1,362.1
1,466.1

324.9
1,015.2
1,265.1
1,344.0
1,429.8

38.9
67.1
178.3
216.4
252.6

78.8
91.8
160.3
71.1
90.8

56.6
121.7
286.4
293.2
327.0

908.1
419.8
445.4
402.1
531.8
626.6
324.9
174.8
314.2
494.6

328.2
186.9
229.1
216.5
250.9
268.7
183.4
150.1
270.3
307.0

191.2
148.6
141.3
156.5
307.0
392.9
270.7
128.3
102.1
109.3 1,208.3

397.7
192.8
267.9
253.7
338.6
306.2
197.7
198.8
341.7
369.7

164.4
226.3
251.4
535.4
620.8
401.5
159.4
234.2
234.0

257.4 ,230.1
338.6 ,284.8
471.4 ,439.0
589.6 ,582.9
557.8 ,502.3
509.1 ,450.6
386.5 ,141.5
447.7 , 268.4
608.2 1,483.6
653.8 1,445. 5

225.7
198.8
197.3
166.2
154.0
159.9
129.1
141.9
147.7
153.6

74.6
83.3
77.8
71.0
59.2
49.4
36.8
52.5
56.1
51.2

998.0
1,064.2
1,186.6
1,334.7
1,285.8
,239.8
971.9
,141.0
,341.4
, 296.2

242.4
243.8
221.1
190.2
182.1
188.9
153.0
167.2
168.9
187.6

142.9
177.8
171.2
139.3
113.6
102.1
99.2
124.3
131.7
138.2

New series
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

1,951.9
1,491.0
1,503.9
1,437.6
1,550.5
1,646.0
1,349.1
1,223.9
,382.0
,553.5 ,531.3 1,516.8 1,234.1

1950..
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.

1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969 P..

,296.0
,365.0
,492.4
,642.0
,561.6
,509.6
1,196.2
1,321.9
1,547.7
1,496.6

1,274.0
1,336.8
1,468.7
1,614.8
1,534.7
1,487.5
1,172.8
1,298.8
1,523.6
1,479.0

1,252.1
994.7
1,313.0
974.4
1,462.7
991.3
1,610.3 1,020.7
1,529.3
971.5
1,472.9
963.8
1,165.0
778.5
1,291.6
843.9
1,507.7
899.5
1,463.2
809.3

282.7

Monthly totals, unadjusted
1968: Jan...
Feb...
Mar..
Apr...
May..
June..

82.7
87.2
128.6
165.2
145.1
142.9

82.0
85.3
126.0
162.2
143.3
141.1

80.5
84.6
126.6
162.0
140.9
137.9

45.2
55.4
79.3
98.0
86.8
81.4

35.3
29.2
47.3
64.0
54.1
56.5

79.8
82.8
123.9
159.1
139.0
136.0

9.7
10.6
12.0
14.3
13.8
12.3

3.4
4.1
4.5
5.4
5.5
5.0

73.4
88.8
115.5
132.4
130.5
113.9

11.2
12.4
15.9
14.7
15.7
13.7

8.4
10.6
11.6
12.4
11.0
10.4

July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.

142.5
141.0
139.8
143.3
129.5
99.8

140.0
138.9
138.0
140.6
127.5
98.9

139.8
136.6
134.3
140.8
127.1
96.4

86.4
82.5
80.2
85.6
64.8
53.8

53.4
54.1
54.1
55.2
62.3
42.6

137.3
134.5
132.4
138.1
125.1
95.5

12.9
13.6
12.2
14.5
11.4
10.5

4.9
4.8
4.6
5.3
4.2
4.4

118.0
113.7
116.3
127.6
104.3
95.9

13.2
15.1
14.0
17.1
13.6
12.3

12.5
11.5
10.4
12.7
11.4
9.0

See footnotes at end of table.




224

TABLE G-41.—New housing starts and applications for financing, 1929-69—Continued
[Thousands of units]
Housing starts
Private and
public^
Year or
month

Private
Total (farm and nonfarm)

Total
(farm
and
nonfarm)

Nonfarm

Type of
structure2

Nonfarm

Proposed
home construction 5

1

Government
home programs
Total

Total
One
family

Two or

more
families

FHA3

VA

New
private
housing
AppliReunits
author- cations quests
for
for
ized *
FHA
VA
comapmitpraisments 3 als

Monthly totals, unadjusted
1969:Jan
Feb
Mar....
Apr
May....
June

105.8
94.8
135.6
159.9
157.7
150.8

104.5
93.9
134.4
158.3
156.1
148.3

101.5
90.1
131.9
159.0
155.5
147.3

51.3
47.9
71.9
85.0
91.3
82.7

50.2
42.2
60.0
74.0
64.2
64.6

100.2
89.2
130.6
157.4
154.0
144.8

8.8
9.2
12.7
16.0
13.4
13.9

3.8
3.5
3.9
4.4
4.3
4.6

92.7
94.6
119.4
146.4
126.2
123.2

12.5
13.9
16.1
16.9
15.5
16.2

10.1
9.9
12.2
12.2
11.5
11.4

July
Aug
Sept....
Oct....
Nov *>-._
Dec *>___

126.5
127.6
132.9
125.8
97.4
81.8

124.3
126.2
131.2
124.5
95.9
81.5

125.2
124.9
129.3
123.4
94.6
80.5

73.5
69.5
71.5
68.0
54.4
42.2

51.7
55.4
57.9
55.3
40.2
38.3

122.9
123.5
127.6
122.1
93.1
80.2

13.1
12.6
13.1
15.1
12.2
13.4

4.7
4.2
4.8
5.0
3.9
4.2

111.8
104.0
104.7
109.1
82.9
81.0

15.3
14.6
16.8
20.0
14.8
15.2

13.6
13.0
11.1
11.4
11.5
10.1

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

920
922
838
790

544
462
591
669
526
575

1,430
1,499
1,479
1,562
1,345
1,348

157
164
149
147
133
137

52
63
63
59
57
54

1,148
1,394
1,416
1,340
1,280
1,281

163
152
160
144
161
157

122
141
127
126
110
120

1,531
1,518
1,592
1,570
1,733
1,507

904
867
944
965
905
922

627
651
648
605
828
585

1,507
1,496
1,570
1,541
1,705
1,492

134
144
145
153
158
158

49
51
54
55
53
65

1,289
1,290
1,393
1,378
1,425
1,463

146
167
169
199
212
187

135
127
125
147
172
136

1,878
1,686
1,584
1,563
1,509
1,469

1,066

975
828
797
883
808

812
711
756
766
626
661

1,845
1,664
1,567
1,548
1,495
1,446

137
138
157
166
134
147

57
52
53
48
47
48

1,403
1,477
1,421
1,502
1,323
1,340

179
169
161
166
168
175

148
132
136
124
122
126

765
723
846
777
783
718

606
661
696
615
514
527

1,349
1,370
1,522
1,379
1,277
1,240

137
143
152
163
179
193

46
47
54
52
53
59

1,228
1,245
1,201
1,183
1,191
1,177

175
170
193
231
239
209

145
151
127
130
184
147

1968: Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
JuneJuly..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...

1,456
1,537
1,511
1,591
1,364
1,365

1969:Jan...
Feb...
Mar__
Apr...
May..
JuneJuly...
Aug...
Sept...
Oct...
Nov p..
Dec p..

1,371
1,384
1,542
1,392
1,297
1,245

912
1,075

1 Military housing starts, including those financed with mortgages insured by FHA under Section 803 of the National
Housing Act, are included in publicly financed starts but excluded from total private starts and from FHA starts.
2 Not available prior to 1959 except for nonfarm for 1929-44.
s Units are for 1 - to 4 - family housing.
< Data beginning 1967 cover approximately 13,000 permit-issuing places. Data for 1963-66 are based on 12,000 places
and 1959-62,10,000 places. The addition of approximately 1,000 permit-issuing places in 1967 contributed an increase of
3 percent in total permit authorizations.
« Units in mortgage applications or appraisal requests for new home construction.
« FHA program approved in June 1934: all 1934 activity included in 1935.
i Monthly estimates for September 1945-May 1950 were prepared by Housing and Home Finance Agency.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration (FHA), and Veterans Administration (VA), except as noted.




225

TABLE C-42.—Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1947-69
[Amounts in millions of dollars]
Total manufacturing
and trade

Manufacturing

Merchant wholesalers

Retail trade

Year or month
InvenInvenSales i tories 2 Ratio 3 Sales i tories 2 Ratio s Sales i Inyen- Ratio 3 Salesi Inven- Ratio 3
tories 2
tories 2

1947—
1948—
1949—

35,260 52,507
33,788 49,497

15,513 25,897
1.42 17,316 28,543
1.53 16,126 26,321

1950—
1951—
1952—
1953—
1954—

38,596
43,356
44,840
47,987
46,443

59,822
70,242
72,377
76,122
73,175

1.36
1.55
1.58
1.58
1.60

18,634
21,714
22,529
24,843
23,355

1955—
1956—
1957—
1958—
1959—

51,694
54,063
55,879
54,233
59,661

79,516
87,304
89,052
86,922
91,891

1.47
1.55
1.59
1.60
1.50

1960...
19614..
1962...
1963...
1964...

60,746 94,747
61,133 95,728
.01,149
65,417 101
68,969 105,525
-",548
73,685 111
121 ,140
137 ,184
143;,694
153,764
"•_,
164,992
164,

1965...
1966—
1967...
1968...
1969 K.

80,276
87,184
88,962
96,915
103,896

1.58
1.57
1.75

6,1
6,514

31,078
39,306
41,136
43,948
41,612

1.48
1.66
1.78
1.76
1.81

26,480
27,740
28,736
27,280
30,219

1.56
1.54
1.51
1.49
1.47
1.45
1.48
1.58
1.53
1.54

10,200 14,241
1.13 11,135 16,007
1.19 11,149 15,470

1.26
1.39
1.41

7,695 9,284
8,597 9,886
8,782 10,210
9,052 10,686
8,993 10,637

1.07
1.16
1,12
1.17
1.18

12,268
13,046
13,529
14,091
14,095

19,460
21,050
21,031
21,488
20,926

1.38
1.64
1.52
1.53
1.51

45,069
50,642
51,871
50,070
52,707

1.62 9,893 11,678
1.73 10,513 13,260
1.80 10,475 12,730
1.84 10,257 12,739
1.70 11,491 13,879

1.13
1.19
1.23
1.24
1.15

15,321
15,811
16,667
16,696
17,951

22,769
23,402
24,451
24,113
25,305

1.43
1.47
1.44
1.43
1.40

30,796
30,896
33,113
35,032
37,335

53,814
54,943
58,212
60,027
63,370

1.76
1.74
1.72
1.69
1.64

11,656
11,988
12,674
13,382
14,527

14,120
14,488
14,936
16,048
16,977

1.22
1.20
1.16
1.15
1.13

18,294
18,249
19,630
20,556
21,823

26,813
26,297
28,001
29,450
31,201

1.45
1.44
1.38
1.39
1.40

41,003
44,876
45,712
50,310
54,780

68,179
78,125
82,819
88,579
95,416

1.60
1.62
1.77
1.70
1.68

15,595
16,979
17,099
18,329
19,776

18,274
20,691
21,557
22,528
24,039

1.14
1.14
1.21
1.20
1.18

23,677
25,330
26,151
28,277
29,340

34,687
38.368
39,318
42,657
45,537

1.40
1.44
1.47
1.44
1.49

7,957
7,706

Seasonally adjusted
1968: Jan
Feb.._.
Mar....
Apr
May...
June.__

93,184
93,758
94,463
94,552
96,069
97,423

July...
Aug
Sept—
Oct.__.
Nov...
Dec

98,368
97,083
98,549
99,675
100,142
98,671

1969: Jan..__
Feb..__
Mar...
Apr.._
May..
June__

100,137
101,390
101,510
102,352
103,232
104,127
104,201
104,644
105,903
106,907
106,036

July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov *>.
Decp.

144,029
••1,738
144;
i,082
145,
146,,405
147,,727
1,436
148,

1.55
1.54
1.54
1.55
1.54
1.52

48,447
48,356
48,446
48,755
50,014
50,729

82,890
83,408
83,759
84,382
85,278
85,582

1.71
1.72
1.73
1.73
1.71
1.69

17,694
17,953
18,021
18,006
17,897
18,374

21,564
21,542
21,547
21,781
21,843
22,012

1.22
.20
.20
.21
.22
.20

27,043
27,449
27,996
27,791
28,158
28,320

39,575
39,788
39.776
40,242
40,606
40,842

1.46
1.45
1.42
1.45
1.44
1.44

.1,972
148,

1.51
1.54
1.53
1.53
1.53
1.56

51,425
49,825
51,441
52,560
52,548
51,494

85,829
86,713
87,109
87,566
87,947
88,579

1.67
1.74
1.69
1.67
1.67
1.72

18,269
18,498
18,792
18,418
18,788
18,830

22,078
22,102
22,119
22,231
22,395
22,528

.21
.19
.18
21
.19
.20

28,674
28,760
28,316
28,697
28,806
28,347

41,065
41,010
41,424
42,220
42,488
42,657

1.43
1.43
1.46
1.47
1.47
1.50

154 ,086
155,,339
1,401
156,
157,,477

158,602
159,264

1.54
1.53
1.54
1.54
1.54
1.53

52,801
53,302
53,078
53,298
53,741
54,786

88,905
89,556
90,317
91,018
92,139
92,215

.68
.68
.70
.71
.71
.68

18,347
18,799
19,516
19,612
20,105
19,970

22,441
22,769
23,080
23,341
23,438
23,611

.22
.21
.18
1.19
1.17
1.18

28,989
29,289
28,916
29,442
29,386
29,371

42,740
43,014
43,004
43,118
43,025
43,438

1.47
1.47
1.49
1.46
1.46
1.48

160,631
161
"",659
162
J.733
164,250
164;9 9 2
'",

1.54
1.54
1.54
1.54
1.56

55,392
55,239
56,434
56,999
56,143

93,166
93,728
94,211
94,916
95,416

1.68
1.70
1.67
1.67
1.70

19,719
20,059
20,210
20,288
20,345

23,591
23,609
23,716
23,956
24,039

1.20
1.18
1.17
1.18
1.18

29,090
29,346
29,259
29,620
29,548
29,581

43,874
44,322
44,806
45,378
45,537

1.51
1.51
1.53
1.53
1.54

149,825
150;
150,652

152,017
152,830
152i 830
153,764

1 Monthly average for year and total for month.
2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
31nventory/sales ratio. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
< Manufacturing sales prior to 1961 not completely comparable with later data. See Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census, "Series M3-1.1," page 9, September 1968.
5
Where December data not available, data for year calculated on basis of no change from November.
Mote.—The inventory figures in this table do not agree with the estimates of change in business inventories included
in the gross national product since these figures cover only manufacturing and trade rather than all business, and show
inventories in terms of current book value without adjustment for revaluation.
Source: Department of Commerce (Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census).




226

TABLE C-43.—Manufacturers9

shipments and inventories, 1947-69

[Millions of dollars]
Inventories 2

Shipments i

Durable goods industries
Year or month
Total

Durable
goods
industries

Nondurable
goods
industries

Total
Total

Materials
and
supplies

Work
Finin
ished
process goods

Nondurable goods industries

Total

Materials
and
supplies

Work
Finin
ished
process goods

15,513
. 17,316
16,126

6,694
7,579
7,191

. 18,634
21,714
22,529
24,843
23,355

8,845
10,493
11,313
13,349
11,828

9,789
11,221
11,216
11,494
11,527

31,078
39,306
41,136
43,948
41,612

15,539
20,991
23,731
25,878
23,710

26,480
- - 27,740
28,736
27,280
30,219

14,071
14,715
15,237
13,572
15,544

12,409
13,025
13,499
13,708
14,675

45,069
50,642
51,871
50,070
52,707

26,405 9,194 10,756
30,447 10,417 12,317
31,728 10.608 12,837
30,095 9.' 847 12,294
31,839 10,585 12,952

1960
1961 3
1962
1963
1964 .

30,796
30,896
33,113
35,032
37,335

15,817
15,544
17,103
18,247
19,634

14,979
15,352
16,010
16,786
17,701

53,814
54,943
58,212
60,027
63,370

32,360
32,518
34,609
35,807
38,433

10.286
10:241
10,803
10,997
11,928

12,780 9,190
13,221 9,056
14,210 9,596
15,000 9,810
16,254 10,251

21,454 9,113
22,425 9,463
23,603 9,837
24,220 9,999
24,937 10,179

2,935 9,353
3,192 9,770
3,303 10,463
3,412 10,809
3,519 11,239

1965
1966 .
1967
1968
1969*

41,003
44,876
45,712
. - - - 50,310
- . - . 54,780

22,216
24,635
24,973
27,579
30,452

18,788
20,240
20,739
22,731
24,328

68,179
78,125
82,819
88,579
95,416

42,204
49,797
53,540
57,422
63,076

13,285
15,484
15,592
16,637
17,194

18,144
21,976
24,675
26,357
29,660

10,775
12,337
13,273
14,428
16,222

25,975
28,328
29,279
31,157
32,340

10,478
11,266
11,247
11,598
11,963

3,823
4,255
4,496
4,855
5,058

11,674
12,807
13, 536
14,704
15,319

1947
1948
1949

..

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

.

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

8,819 25,897 13,061
9,738 28,543 14,662
8,935 26,321 13,060

12,836
13,881
13,261

8,966 10,720
7,894 9,721

15,539
18,315
17,405
6,206 18,070
6,040 17,902

8,317
8,167

2,472
2,440

7,409
7,415

6,348
7,565
8,125
7,749
8,143

8,556
8,971
8,775
8,671
9,089

2,571
2,721
2,864
2,800
2,928

7,666
8,622
8,624
8,498
8,857

18,664
20,195
20,143
19,975
20,868

Seasonally adjusted
1968: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June

48,447
48,356
48,446
48,755
50,014
50,729

26,925
26,711
26,844
26,888
27,509
27,633

21,522
21,645
21,602
21,867
22,505
23,096

82,890
83,408
83,759
84,382
85,278
85,582

53, 525
54,009
54,295
54,724
55,234
55,442

15,489
15,648
15,840
16,071
16,379
16,498

24,641
24,926
25,078
25,214
25,392
25,490

13,395
13,435
13,377
13,439
13, 463
13,454

29,365
29,399
29,464
29,658
30,044
30,140

11,306
11,249
11,128
11,228
11,312
11,333

4,482
4,497
4,508
4,522
4,604
4,619

13,577
13,653
13,829
13,909
14,128
14,188

July
Aug
Sept..-.
Oct
Nov
Dec

51,425
49,825
51,441
52,560
52,548
51,494

28,211
26,837
27,985
28,960
28,786
27,742

23,214
22,988
23,456
23,600
23,762
23,752

85,829
86,713
87,109
87,566
87,947
88,579

55,461
56,069
56,458
56,657
56,953
57,422

16,753
16,781
16,704
16,763
16,676
16,637

25,237
25,544
25,772
25,825
26,085
26,357

13,471
13,744
13,982
14,069
14,192
14,428

30,368
30,644
30,651
30,909
30,994
31,157

11,366
11,508
11,511
11,609
11,512
11,598

4,682
4,729
4,679
4,724
4,752
4,855

14,320
14,407
14,461
14,576
14,730
14,704

52,801
53,302
53,078
53,298
53,741
54,786

29,325
29,914
29,530
29,643
29,573
30,136

23,476
23,388
23,548
23,655
24,168
24,650

88,905
89,556
90,317
91,018
92,139
92,215

57,879
58,282
58,978
59,426
60,222
60,479

16,706
16,613
16,980
16,935
17,055
17,045

26,631
26,961
27,264
27,463
27,872
28, 072

14,542
14,708
14,734
15,028
15,295
15,362

31,026
31,274
31,339
31,592
31,917
31,736

11,497
11,554
11,519
11,672
11,783
11,704

4,991
5,014
4,943
4,970
5,016
4,946

14, 538
14,706
14,877
14,950
15,118
15,086

55,392
55,239
56,434
56,999
56,143

30,605
30,868
31,742
31,889
31,099

24, 787
24,371
24,692
25,110
25,044

93,166
93,728
94,211
94,916
95,416

61,441
61,724
62, 036
62,631
63,076

17,159
17,011
17, 023
17,104
17,194

28,714
28,977
29,224
29,494
29,660

15,568
15,736
15,789
16,033
16,222

31,725
32, 004
32,175
32,285
32,340

11,684
11,790
11,837
12,048
11,963

4,945
4,988
5,028
5,062
5,058

15,096
15,226
15,310
15,175
15,319

1969:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct p . —
Nov *_-.

1 Monthly average for year and total for month.
2 Book value, seasonally adjusted, end of period.
Data prior to 1961 not completely comparable with later data. See Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
"Series M3-1.1," page 9, September 1968.
< Where December data not available, data for year calculated on basis of no change from November.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
3




227

TABLE C-44.—Manufacturers1

new and unfilled orders, 1947-69

[Amounts in millions of dollars]
New orders 1
Durable goods
industries

Year or month

Total
Total

Machinery and
equipment

Unfilled orders2

Nondurable
goods
industries

Total

Durable
goods
industries

Nondurable
goods
industries

Unfilled orders-shipments ratio 3

Total

Durable
goods
industries

Nondurable
goods
industries

1947..
1948..
1949..

15,256
17,692
15,614

6,388
8,126
6,633

8,868
9,566
8,981

34,415
30,717
24,506

28,532
26,601
20,018

5,883
4,116
4,488

1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..

20,110
23,907
23,203
23,53.3
22,313

10,165
12,841
12,061
12,105
10,743

2,084
1,770

9,945
11,066
11,142
11,428
11,570

43,055
69,785
75,649
61,178
48,266

36,838
65,835
72,480
58,637
45,250

6,217
3,950
3,169
2,541
3,016

3.42

4.12

0.96

1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..

27,423
28,383
27,514
26,901
30,679

14,954
15,381
14,073
13,170
15,951

2,499
2,870
2,566
2,354
2,878

12,469
13,002
13,441
13,731
14,728

60,004
67,375
53,183
48,882
54,494

56,241
63,880
50,352
45,739
50,654

3,763
3,495
2,831
3,143
3,840

3.63
3.87
3.35
2.60
2.85

4.27
4.55
4.00
3.49
3.44

1.12
1.04
.85
.55

I960..
1961 *
1962..
1963..
1964..

30,115
31,085
33,005
35,322
37,952

15,223
15,698
17,026
18,522
20,258

2,791
2,854
3,090
3,412
3,935

14,892
15,387
15,979
16,800
17,694

46,133
48,485
47,351
50,960
58,536

43,401
45,336
44,531
47,980
55,652

2,732
3,149
2,820
2,980
2,884

2.58
2.52
2.46
2.41
2.50

3.21
3.02
2.96
2.89
2.99

.63
.75
.68
.65
.59

1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969 5.

41,803
45,938
45,928
50,597
54,956

22,986
25,710
25,189
27,868
30,630

4,435
5,268
5,250
5,804
6,402

18,817
20,228
20,739
22,728
24,327

68,208
81,072
83,686
87,152
89,288

64,980
77,987
80,578
84, 071
86,235

3,228
3,085
3,108
3,081
3,053

2.63
2.92
2.83
2.78

3.13
3.50
3.39
3.38

.62
.56
.53
.48

Seasonally adjusted
1968: Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May_.
June.

48,353
48,453
49,566
49,237
49,650
49,850

26,837
26,814
28,005
27,373
27,172
26,701

5,466
5,380
5,382
5,492
5,447
5,968

21,516
21,639
21,561
21,864
22,478
23,149

83,592
83,689
84,809
85,291
84,927
84,048

80,490
80,593
81,754
82,239
81,902
80,970

3,102
3,096
3,055
3,052
3,025
3,078

2.80
2.79
2.82
2.83
2.78
2.72

3.37
3.36
3.39
3.41
3.36
3.28

0.52
.52
.52
.50
.49
.50

July..
Aug_.
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.

50,181
50,201
51,877
53,931
53,100
53,101

26,925
27,329
28,381
30,280
29,325
29,380

5,714
6,027
5,916
6,550
6,089
6,237

23,256
22,872
23,496
23,651
23,775
23,721

82,806
83,184
83,617
84,991
85, 539
87,152

79,684
80,177
80,572
81,894
82,429
84,071

3,122
3,007
3,045
3,097
3,110
3,081

2.64
2.79
2.67
2.64
2.67
2.78

3.17
3.38
3.24
3.19
3.22
3.38

.50
.50
.48
.48
.48
.48

1969: Jan...
Feb..
Mar_.
Apr_.
May..
June.

53,119
53,901
53,283
54,635
54,133
53,861

29,684
30,482
29,697
30,944
29,998
29,171

6,204
6,511
6,414
7,099
6,428
6,528

23,435
23,419
23,586
23,691
24,135
24,690

87,469
88, 064
88,267
89,603
89,986
89, 058

84,431
84,994
85,159
86,461
86,878
85,910

3,038
3,070
3,108
3,142
3,108
3,148

2.68
2.65
2.67
2.69
2.70
2.64

3.22
3.18
3.21
3.24
3.26
3.17

.47
.47
.48
.48
.47
.47

55,793
54,799
56,829
56,917
56,103

31,069
30,482
32,135
31,795
31,049

6,346
6,245
7,352
6,450
6,402

24,724
24,317
24,694
25,122
25,054

89,456
89, 014
89,411
89,333
89,288

86,369
85,984
86,377
86,288
86,235

3,087
3,030
3,034
3,045
3,053

2.64
2.62
2.57
2.52
2.55

3.20
3.15
3.07
3.03
3.07

.45
.45
.45
.44
.45

July...
Aug...
Sept—
Oct....
NOVP.

1 Monthly average for year and total for month.
2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
3 Ratio of unfilled orders at end of period to shipments for period. Annual figures relate to seasonally adjusted data
for December.
* Data prior to 1961 not completely comparable with later data. Comparable data for new orders (total, durable, and nondurable) are available for 1958, 1959, and 1960 only. See Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Series
M3-1.1," page 9, September 1968, for these data.
5
Where December data not available, data for year calculated on basis of no change from November.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.




228

PRICES
TABLE G-45.—Consumer price indexes, by major groups, 1929-69
For city wage earners and clerical workers
[1957-59 = 100]

Housing
Yeaf or month

All
items

Food
Total

Rent

Apparel
and
upkeep

Transportation

Reading Other
Medical Personal and
goods
recreaand
care
care
tion
services

.

59.7

55.6

85.4

55.3

.

58.2
53.0
47.6
45 1
46 6
47.8
48.3
50 0
49.1
48.4

52 9
43.6
36.3
35 3
39 3
42.1
42.5
44 2
41.0
39.9

56.3
57.1
59 1
60.1
59.7

83 1
78.7
70.6
60 8
57 0
56.9
58.3
60 9
62.9
63.0

54 1
49.2
43.6
42 1
46 1
46.5
46.9
49 3
49.0
48.3

49.4
49.8
50 6
51.0
49.8

49.4
49.6
50 0
50.2
50.2

42.6
43.2
45 7
46.7
46.5

50.2
51.0
52.5
54.3
54.4

52.7
52.6
54.0
54.5
55.4

48.8
51 3
56.8
60.3
61 3
62 7
68.0
77.8
83 8
83.0

40.5
44 2
51.9
57.9
57 1
58 4
66.9
81.3
88 2
84.7

59.9
61 4
64 2
64.9
66 4
67 5
69.3
74.5
79 8
81 0

63.2
64 3
65 7
65.7
65 9
66 1
66.5
68.7
73 2
76 4

48.8
51 1
59 6
62.2
66 7
70 1
76.9
89.2
95 0
91.3

49.5
51 2
55.7
55.5
55 5
55 4
58.3
64.3
71 6
77.0

50.3
50 6
52 0
54.5
56 2
57 5
60.7
65.7
69 8
72 0

46.4
47 6
52 2
57.6
61 7
63 6
68.2
76.2
79 1
78.9

55.4
57 3
60.0
65.0
72 0
75.0
77.5
82.5
86.7
89.9

57.1
58.2
59.9
63.0
64.7
67.3
69.5
75.4
78.9
81.2

83 8
90.5
92.5
93 2
93 6
93.3
94 7
98 0
100 7
101.5

85 8
95.4
97.1
95 6
95 4
94.0
94 7
97 8
101.9
100.3

83 2
88.2
89.9
92 3
93 4
94.1
95 5
98 5
100 2
101.3

79 1
82.3
85.7
90 3
93 5
94.8
96 5
98*3
100 1
101.6

90 1
98.2
97.2
96 5
96 3
95.9
97 8
99 5
99 8
100.6

79 0
84.0
89.6
92 1
90 8
89.7
91 3
96 5
99.7
103.8

73 4
76.9
81.1
83 9
86 6
88.6
91 8
95 5
100 1
104.4

78 9
86.3
87.3
88 1
88 5
90.0
93 7
97 1
100 4
102.4

89.3
92.0
92.4
93 3
92.4
92.1
93 4
96.9
100.8
102.4

82.6
86.1
90.6
92.8
94.3
94.3
95.8
98.5
99.8
101.8

1960
1961
1962 . . . . .
1963
1964
1965 . . . .
1966
1967
1968
1969

103.1
104.2
105 4
106.7
108.1
109.9
113.1
116 3
121.2
127.7

101.4
102.6
103 6
105.1
106.4
108.8
114.2
115 2
119.3
125.5

103.1
103.9
104 8
106.0
107.2
108. 5
119.1
114 3
126.7

103.1
104.4
105 7
106.8
107.8
108.9
110.4
112 4
115.1
118.8

102.2
103.0
103 6
104.8
105.7
106.8
109.6
114 0
120.1
127.1

103.8
105.0
107 2
107.8
109.3
111.1
112.7
115 9
119.6
124.2

108.1
111.3
114 2
117.0
119.4
122.3
127.7
136.7
145.0
155.0

104.1
104.6
106 5
107.9
109.2
109.9
112.2
115.5
120.3
126.2

104.9
107.2
109.6
111.5
114.1
115.2
117.1
120.1
125.7
130.5

103.8
104.6
105.3
107.1
108.8
111.4
114.9
118.2
123.6
129.0

1968: Jan..
Feb....

118.6
119.0
119.5
119.9
120.3
120.9

117.0
117.4
117.9
118.3
118.8
119.1

116.4
116 9
117.2
117.5
117.8
118.7

113.7
113 9
114.2
114 4
114.6
114.9

115.9
116.6
117.6
118.4
119.5
119.9

118.7
118.6
119.0
119.0
119.1
119.7

141.2
141.9
142.9
143.5
144.0
144.4

117.6
117.6
118.4
119.0
119.6
120.1

122.7
123.0
124.2
124.9
125.3
125.6

121.9
122.1
122.4
122.5
122.6
123.5

121 5
121.9
122.2
122.9
123.4
123.7

120.0
120.5
120.4
120.9
120.5
121.2

119 5
120.1
120 4
120.9
121.7
122.3

115 1
115.4
115 7
116.0
116.3
116.7

119.7
120.3
122.2
123.3
124.0
124.3

119.8
120.0
119.5
120.6
121.2
120.2

145.1
145.5
146.4
147.4
148.2
149.1

120.4
120.9
121.5
122.1
122.8
123.4

125.9
126.3
126.7
127.5
128.0
128.2

123.9
124.2
124.4
125.1
125.4
125.6

124.1
124 6
125 6
126.4
126.8
127.6

122.0
121 9
122 4
123.2
123.7
125.5

122.7
123 3
124 4
125.3
125.8
126.3

116.9
117 2
117 5
117.8
118.1
118.5

123.4
123 9
124 9
125.6
126.6
127.0

120.7
122 0
124 3
124.6
124.0
124.6

150.2
151 3
152 5
153.6
154.5
155.2

123.7
124 1
124 8
125.5
125.8
126.2

128.4
128 4
128.7
129.6
130.2
130.4

125.6
125.8
126.1
126.6
126.9
127.9

128 2
128 7
129.3
129 8
130.5
131.3

126 7
127.4
127.5
127 2
128.1
129.9

127 0
127 8
128.6
129 2
129.8
130.5

118 8
119 3
119.7
120 1
120.5
121.0

126 8
126.6
128.7
129 8
130.7
130.8

124 3
124 2
123.6
125 7
125.6
126.4

155 9
156.8
157.6
156 9
157.4
158.1

126 6
126 8
127.3
127 3
127.8
128.1

130.7
131.2
131.6
132.0
132.3
132.7

129.1
130.1
131.3
132.2
133.1
133.5

1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

. .

.

.

Mar
Apr

May
June .
July..
Aug
Sept.

Oct
Nov
Dec
1969:Jan...

Feb
Mar.
Apr._ .
May
June..
July
Aug.
Sept.._

Oct
Nov.

Dec

in. i

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




229

TABLE C-46.—Consumer price indexes, by special groups, 1935-69
For city wage earners and clerical workers
[1957-59=100]
Commodities

All
items

Year or
month

All
items
less
food

All
items
less
shelter

Services

Commodities less food
All
commodities

Food
All

Durable

Nondurable

Total
AM
nondura- services
ble

Rent

All
services
less
rent

1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

47.8
48.3
50.0
49.1
48.4

52.5
53.0
54.9
55.5
55.1

46.1
46.7
48.2
46.8
46.0

45.0
45.6
47.4
45.6
44.7

42.1
42.5
44.2
41.0
39.9

50.2
50.8
53.0
53.0
52.1

47.1
47.8
50.8
51.7
50.6

48.8
49.2
51.2
50.9
50.1

44.5
45.1
46.8
44.7
43.8

52.2
52.8
54.4
55.4
55.5

56.9
58.3
60.9
62.9
63.0

49.3
49.0
49.5
49.9
49.9

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949..

48.8
51.3
56.8
60.3
61.3
62.7
68.0
77.8
83.8
83.0

55.3
56.9
60.9
62.6
65.0
66.5
69.4
75.8
81.3
82.1

46.3
49.1
55.3
59.5
60.5
62.1
68.4
79.4
85.6
84.1

45.1
48.2
55.2
60.1
60.8
62.6
69.4
83.4
89.4
87.1

40.5
44.2
51.9
57.9
57.1
58.4
66.9
81.3
88.2
84.7

52.4
55.0
61.2
63.8
67.3
70.0
74.4
83.9
90.3
89.0

50.2
53.6
60.9
62.9
68.7
73.9
77.3
83.8
89.9
91.2

50.6
52.8
58.4
60.9
64.0
66.3
71.1
81.7
88.0
86.3

44.3
47.4
54.3
59.0
59.5
61.2
68.0
82.0
88.0
85.4

55.7
56.4
58.2
59.3
60.7
61.5
62.7
65.3
69.4
72.6

63.2
64.3
65.7
65.7
65.9
66.1
66.5
68.7
73.2
76.4

50.0
50.6
52.8
55.2
57.9
59.1
61.2
64.3
68.0
71.4

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

83.8
90.5
92.5
93.2
93.6
93.3
94.7
98.0
100.7
101.5

83.1
88.4
90.5
92.3
92.8
93.1
94.7
97.9
100.1
102.0

84.7
91.8
93.6
93.9
93.9
93.4
94.7
97.8
100.7
101.5

87.6
95.5
96.7
96.4
95.5
94.6
95.5
98.5
100.8
100.9

85.8
95.4
97.1
95.6
95.4
94.0
94.7
97.8
101.9
100.3

88.9
95.6
96.4
96.6
95.6
94.9
95.9
98.8
99.9
101.2

92? 2 86.2
99.2
92.7
100.5
93.2
99.8
94.0
97.3
94.4
95.4
94.4
95.4
96.5
98.5
99.1
100.0
99.8
101.5 101.0

85.9
94.0
95.1
94.9
94.8
94.1
95.4
98.4
101.0
100.6

75.0
78.9
82.4
86.0
88.7
90.5
92.8
96.6
100.3
103.2

79.1
82.3
85.7
90.3
93.5
94.8
96.5
98.3
100.1
101.6

73.4
77.8
81.5
84.9
87.4
89.4
91.9
96.1
100.2
103.6

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

103.1
104.2
105.4
106.7
108.1
109.9
113.1
116.3
121.2
127.7

103.7
104.8
106.1
107.4
108.9
110.4
113.0
116.8
121.9
128.6

103.0
104.2
105.4
106.7
108.0
109.6
112.9
115.9
120.6
126.3

101.7
102.3
103.2
104.1
105.2
106.4
109.2
111.2
115.3
120.5

101.4
102.6
103.6
105.1
106.4
108.8
114.2
115.2
119.3
125.5

101.7
102.0
102.8
103.5
104.4
105.1
106.5
109.2
113.2
118.0

100.9
100.8
101.8
102.1
103,0
102.6
102.7
104.3
107.5
111.6

102.6
103.2
103.8
104.8
105.7
107.2
109.7
113.1
117.7
123.0

101.9
102.8
103.6
104.9
106.0
107.9
111.8
114.0
118.4
124.1

106.6
108.8
110.9
113.0
115.2
117.8
122.3
127.7
134.3
143.7

103.1
104.4
105.7
106.8
107.8
108.9
110.4
112.4
115.1
118.8

107.4
110.0
112.1
114.5
117.0
120.0
125.0
131.1
138.6
149.2

1968: J a n . . .
Feb...
Mar._
Apr...
May..
June..

118.6
119.0
119.5
119.9
120.3
120.9

119.3
119.7
120.2
120.6
121.0
121.6

118.2
118.5
119.1
119.6
120.0
120.4

113.2
113.5
113.9
114.3
114.7
115.1

117.0
117.4
117.9
118.3
118.8
119.1

111.2
111.5
111.9
112.2
112.5
113.0

106.3
106.4
106.6
106.9
106.9
107.4

115.1
115.6
116.1
116.4
117.0
117.5

116.0
116.4
116.9
117.3
117.8
118.2

130.8
131.3
132.1
132.5
133.0
133.9

113.7
113.9
114.2
114.4
114.6
114.9

134.6
135.2
136.1
136.6
137.1
138.1

July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec...

121.5
121.9
122.2
122.9
123.4
123.7

122.1
122.6
123.0
123.8
124.4
124.7

120.8
121.2
121.5
122.2
122.5
122.7

115.5
115.9
116.1
116.8
117.1
117.2

120.0
120.5
120.4
120.9
120.5
121.2

113.2
113.5
113.9
114.7
115.3
115.2

107.6
107.7
107.6
108.5
109.3
108.7

117.6
118.1
118.9
119.7
120.2
120.3

118.7
119.2
119.6
120.2
120.3
120.7

134.9
135.5
136.0
136.6
137.4
138.1

115.1
115.4
115.7
116.0
116.3
116.7

139.3
140.0
140.5
141.2
142.0
142.9

1969: J a n . . .
Feb...
Mar..
Apr...
May..
June..

124.1
124.6
125.6
126.4
126.8
127.6

124.9
125.6
126.8
127.5
127.9
128.4

123.1
123.5
124.4
125.0
125.4
126.3

117.4
117.8
118.7
119.3
119.6
120.5

122.0
121.9
122.4
123.2
123.7
125.5

115.0
115.7
116.8
117.2
117.5
118.0

108.6
109.7
111.1
111.4
111.3
111.7

120.1
120.5
121.4
121.9
122.4
123.0

121.0
121.1
121.8
122.5
123.0
124.1

139.0
139.7
140.9
142.0
142.7
143.3

116.9
117.2
117.5
117.8
118.1
118.5

143.9
144.6
146.1
147.4
148.1
148.8

July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec-

128.2
128.7
129.3
129.8
130.5
131.3

128.8
129.3
130.0
130.8
131.4
131.9

126.7
127.1
127.6
128.1
128.6
129.5

121.0
121.4
121.7
122.4
122.9
123.6

126.7
127.4
127.5
127.2
128.1
129.9

118.1
118.2
118.7
119.8
120.2
120.3

111.9
111.9
111.6
113.2
113.5
113.6

123.1
123.3
124.4
125.1
125.5
125.7

124.7
125.2
125.8
126.1
126.7
127.7

144.0
145.0
146.0
146.5
147.2
148.3

118.8
119.3
119.7
120.1
120.5
121.0

149.6
150.7
151.7
152.3
153.1
154.3

,.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




230

TABLE C-47.—Consumer price indexes, selected commodities and services, 1935-69
For city wage earners and clerical workers
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable commodities less food

Durable commodities

Year or
month

Services less rent

NonHouse- Trans- MedApparel durahold porta- ical
House- House
bles
Used hold
comfurcare Other*
tion
less Total services
cars dura- nish- Total modserv- servfood
ities
less
bles
ings
ices
ices
and
rent
apparel

Total i

New
cars

1935.
1936.
1937.
1938.
1939.

47.1
47.8
50.8
51.7
50.6

40.3
40.6
41.4
43.4
42.4

51.2
52.1
56.7
56.7
55.6

48.0
48.8
52.8
52.4
51.3

48.8
49.2
51.2
50.9
50.1

46.7
47.2
49.8
49.4
48.6

51.4
51.9
53.2
53.1
52.4

49.3
49.0
49.5
49.9
49.9

46.6
46.2
45.9
46.2
46.4

46.3
46.5
47.1
47.2
47.3

1940.
1941..
1942..
1943.
1944..
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948..
1949.

50.2
53.6
60.9
62.9
68.7
73.9
77.3
83.8
89.9
91.2

42.5
45.7

67.9
74.2
81.2

54.9
58.7
65.7
68.2
74.6
80.3
84.9
93.9
99.9
97.2

50.9
54.4
61.9
63.6
69.1
73.9
80.6
93.4
99.1
95.7

50.6
52.8
58.4
60.9
64.0
66.3
71.1
81.7
88.0
86.3

49.2
51.7
60.4
63.2
67.6
71.2
78.5
90.9
96.5
92.7

52.9
54.7
57.8
60.2
61.9
63.1
65.8
74.9
81.8
81.9

50.0
50.6
52.8
55.2
57.9
59.1
61.2
64.3
68.0
71.4

46.3
46.6
49.1
49.1
49.0
49.1
50.1
51.7
57.7
64.2

47.3
47.6
49.0
51.6
53.7
55.2
58.4
63.3
67.6
70.1

1950..
1951..
1952..
1953.
1954..
1955..
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.

92.2 81.8
99.2 85.7
100.5 93.1
99.8 94.0 108.4
97.3 92.5 92.2
95.4 89.2 87.2
95.4 91.7 83.9
98.5 96.5 94.0
100.0 99.6 97.4
101.5 103.9 108.8

98.4
107.8
105.0
103.8
101.0
98.3
97.9
99.6
100.3
100.2

96.3
106.8
104.2
103.7
101.9
100.0
98.9
100.5
99.8
99.8

86.2
92.7
93.2
94.0
94.4
94.4
96.5
99.1
99.8
101.0

91.6
100.2
99.1
98.0
97.5
97.0
98.6
99.7
99.7
100.6

82.5 73.4
87.6 77.8
89.3 81.5
91.6 84.9
92.5 87.4
92.8 89.4
95.1 91.9
98.8 96.1
99.9 100.2
101.3 103.6

1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969....

100.9
100.8
101.8
102.1
103.0
102.6
102.7
104.3
107.5
111.6

102.5
102.5
102.1
101.5
101.2
99.0
97.2
98.1
100.8
102.4

101.6
105.6
115.2
116.6
121.6
120.8
117.8
121.5

100.1
98.9
98.8
98.5
98.4
96.9
96.8
98.2
101.4
105.5

100.1
99.5
98.9
98.5
98.4
97.9
98.8
100.8
104.7
109.0

102.6
103.2
103.8
104.8
105.7
107.2
109.7
113.1
117.7
123.0

102.0
102.6
103.0
104.0
104.9
105.8
108.5
113.0
119.3
126.5

102.8
103.3
104.2
105.3
106.2
108.0
110.3
113.1
116.8
121.0

1968:Jan...
Feb_.
Mar..
Apr_.
May..
June..

106.3
106.4
106.6
106.9
106.9
107.4

101.0
100.8
100.6
100.3
100.3
100.1

125.8
123.6

99.6
99.9
100.4
100.8
101.1
101.3

102.6
103.1
103.8
104.2
104.4
104.7

115.1
115.6
116.1
116.4
117.0
117.5

114.8
115.6
116.6
117.6
118.7
119.1

107.6 99.8
107.7 99.1
107.6 98.4 126.7
108.5 102.8
109.3 103.8
108.7 102.7 118.7

101.5
101.6
102.0
102.3
102.8
103.0

104.8
104.9
105.4
105.9
106.5
106.6

117:6
118.1
118.9
119.7
120.2
120.3

July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.

125.3

126.3
126.7

90.4
95.7
100.8
103.6

68.4 71.7
74.8 75.3
80.1 80.1
85.2 83.0
88.9 85.5
89.1 88.0
90.5 91.4
94.8 95.3
100.8 100.0
104.3 104.8

93.5
97.2
100.2
102.6

107.4
110.0
112.1
114.5
117.0
120.0
125.0
131.1
138.6
149.2

10&0
109.2
110.6
113.0
114.8
117.0
121.5
127.0
134.5
146.4

107.0
109.5
111.2
112.4
115.0
119.3
124.3
128.4
133.5
142.9

109.1
113.1
116.8
120.3
123.2
127.1
133.9
145.6
156.3
168.9

106.2
109.7
112.6
115.3
118.5
121.8
126.5
131.5
138.8
145.5

115.3
115.5
115.8
115.8
116.0
116.6

134.6
135.2
136.1
136.6
137.1
138.1

129.9
130.6
131.1
131.5
132.1
133.7

131.5
131.9
132.4
132.7
132.9
133.3

151.4
152.3
153.6
154.3
155.0
155.5

134.8
135.3
137.0
137.6
138.3
138.9

118.9
119.5
121.5
122.7
123.4
123.7

116.9
117.3
117.4
117.9
118.3
118.3

139.3
140.0
140.5
141.2
142.0
142.9

135.6
136.7
137.0
137.6
138.5
139.2

133.5
133.6
133.8
134.6
135.2
136.8

156.6
157.1
158.2
159.4
160.3
161.4

139.2
139.7
140.3
140.9
141.5
142.0

1969: Jan_.

Feb_.
Mar_.
Apr..
May..
June.

108.6
109.7
111.1
111.4
111.3
111.7

102.3
102.3
102.4
101.9
101.8
101.8

115.5
122.6
130.5
131.2
126.8
128.2

103.3
103.7
104.4
105.0
105.6
105.8

106.6
107.1
107.8
108.3
108.8
109.0

120.1
120.5
121.4
121.9
122.4
123.0

122.6
123.1
124.3
124.9
126.0
126.4

118.6
118.9
119.7
120.2
120.3
121.0

143.9
144.6
146.1
147.4
148.1
148.8

139.8
140.6
142.5
144.2
145.0
145.7

139.2
139.8
140.9
141.4
141.8
142.3

162.8
164.3
165.8
167.2
168.2
169.1

142.3
142.7
143.2
144.2
144.7
145.2

JulyAugSept.
Oct..
NovDec.

111.9
111.9
111.6
113.2
113.5
113.6

101.6
101.0
99.5
104.2
105.1
104.9

127.0
125.4
121.4
125.8
124.9
123.9

106.0
106.0
106.2
106.4
106.5
106.5

109.3
109.4
109.9
110.2
110.4
110.6

123.1
123.3
124.4
125.1
125.5
125.7

126.2
125.9
128.1
129.3
130.4
130.3

121.3
121.7
122.2
122.6
122.6
123.0

149.6
150.7
151.7
152.3
153.1
154.3

146.9
148.2
149.5
150.4
151.4
152.4

142.5
143.1
144.0
145.1
145 8
148.4

170.1
171.1
172.2
171.2
171.8
172.8

145.7
146.5
147.2
147.6
148.2
148.9

» Includes certain items not shown separately.
3 Includes the services components of apparel, personal care, reading and recreation, and other goods and services.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




231

TABLE G-48.— Wholesale price indexes, by major commodity groups, 1929-69
[1957-59=100]
Industrial commodities

Year or month

All commodities

Farm
products

Processed
foods and
feeds

Total

Textile
products
and
apparel

Hides,
skins,
leather,
and
related
products

Fuels and
related Chemicals
products, and allied
and
products
power

1929

52 1

63 9

51 7

56 6

61 5

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935.
1936
1937
1938
1939

47.3
39.9
35.6
36.1
41.0
43.8
44.2
47.2
43.0
42.2

54.0
39.6
29.4
31.3
39.9
48.0
49.4
52.7
41.9
39.9

48.1
42.4
39.7
40.2
44.2
44.0
44.9
48.1
46.1
46.0

52.0
44.7
38.0
42.0
44.9
46.5
49.5
54.3
48.2
49.6

58.2
50.0
52.1
49.3
54 3
54.5
56.5
57.5
56.6
54.2

46.6
48 8
50 9
51.2
53.6
51.0
50.7

43 0
47.8
54.0
56.5
56.9
57.9
66.1
81.2
87.9
83.5

41.3
50.1
64.6
74.8
75.3
78.3
90.6
109.1
117.1
101.3

92.6
99.1
90.0

46 8
50.3
53.9
54.7
55.6
56 3
61.7
75.3
81.7
80.0

105 7
110.3
100.9

52 3
56.1
61.1
61.0
60.5
61.3
70.7
96.5
97.5
92.5

53 2
56.6
58.2
59.9
61.6
62.3
66.7
79.7
93.8
89.3

51 6
56.1
62.3
63.1
63.8
64 2
69.4
92.2
94.4
86.2

1950
1951
1952
1953 .
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958 . . .
1959

86.8
96.7
94.0
92.7
92.9
93.2
96.2
99.0
100.4
100.6

106.4
123.8
116.8
105.9
104.4
97.9
96.6
99.2
103.6
97.2

93.2
103.5
102.3
97.6
99.3
95.0
94.8
97.6
102.5
99.9

82.9
91.5
89.4
90.1
90.4
92.4
96.5
99.2
99.5
101.3

104.8
116.9
105.5
102.8
100.6
100.7
100.7
100.8
98.9
100.4

99.9
114.8
92.8
94.1
89.9
89.5
94.8
94.9
96.0
109.1

90.2
93.5
93.3
95.9
94.6
94.5
97.4
102.7
98.7
98.7

87.5
100.1
95.0
96.1
97.3
96.9
97.5
99.6
100.4
100.0

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

100.7
100.3
100.6
100.3
100.5
102.5
105.9
106.1
108.7
113.0

96.9
96.0
97.7
95.7
94.3
98.4
105.6
99.7
102.2
108.5

100.0
101.6
102.7
103.3
103.1
106.7
113.0
111.7
114.1
119.8

101.3
tO(T8
100.8
100.7
101.2
102.5
104.7
106.3
109.0
112.7

101.5
99.7
100.6
100.5
101.2
101.8
102.1
102.0
105.7
108.0

105.2
106.2
107.4
104.2
104.6
109.2
119.7
115.8
119.5
125.8

99.6
100.7
100.2
99.8
97.1
98.9
101.3
103.6
102.4
104.6

100.2
99.1
97.5
96.3
96.7
97.4
97.8
98.4
98.2
98.3

107.2
108.0
108.2
108.3
108.5
108.7

99.0
101.3
102.1
102.1
103.6
102.5

112.4
113.3
112.9
112.8
113.6
114.6

107.8
108.3
108.6
108.8
108.6
108.8

104.3
104.6
104.6
104.7
104.8
105.2

116.5
116.7
117.9
118.3
118.8
118.7

101.8
102.5
102.0
102.4
102.4
103.7

98.2
98.1
98.6
98.8
98.7
98.5

July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

109.1
108.7
109.1
109.1
109.6
109.8

103.9
101.4
102.8
101.2
103.1
103.3

115.9
114.9
115.3
114.4
114.7
114.7

108.8
108.9
109.2
109.7
109.9
110.2

105.8
106.0
106.5
107.0
107.2
107.1

119.5
119.5
120.7
122.3
122.4
122.8

103.3
102.6
102.5
101.9
102.0
102.2

98.2
98.1
97.9
97.8
97.8
97.7

1969: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June

110.7
111.1
111.7
111.9
112.8
113.2

104 9
105.0
106.5
105.6
110.5
111.2

116.0
116.3
116.4
117.3
119.4
121.4

110.9
111.4
112.0
112.1
112.2
112.2

107.4
107.2
107.1
107.1
106.9
107.2

123.5
123.4
123.4
126.0
126.1
125.7

102.4
102.7
104.2
104.5
104.5
105.0

97.6
97.8
98.0
97.9
98.1
98.3

July
Aug
Sent
Oct
Nov
Dec

113.3
113.4
113.6
114.0
114.7
115.1

110.5
108.9
108.4
107.9
111.1
111.7

122.0
121.5
121.3
121.6
121.8
122.6

112.4
112.8
113.2
113.8
114.2
114.6

107.7
108.7
109.0
109.1
109.2
109.2

126.4
126.4
128.2
127.4
126.8
126.5

105.0
104.7
104.7
105.4
105.5
105.1

98.2
98.7
98. S
98.6
98 9
98.8

1940
1941
1942
1943.
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

.
.

..

1968* Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June

....

. . .

See footnotes at end of table.




232

TABLE C-48.—Wholesale price indexes, by major commodity groups, 1929-69—Continued
[1957-59=100]
Industrial commodities—Continued

Pulp,
Metals
Rubber Lumber
paper,
and
and
and
and
metal
rubber
wood
allied
products products products products

Year or month

1929

57.6

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
.. .
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1968: Jan..
Feb..
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct_ .
Nov...
Dec
1969: Jan....
Feb
Mar
Apr
May.
June
July.
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov..
Dec

.

26.4

50.4
42.8
37.1
39.0
45.5
45.8
49.4
58.1
57.1
59.3
55.3
59.6
69.4
71.3
70.4
68.3
68.6
68.3
70 5
68.3
83.2
102.1
92.5
86.3
87.6
99.2
100.6
100.2
100.1
99.7
99.9
96.1
93.3
93.8
92.5
92.9
94.8
96.9
100.3
102.1
99.5
99.5
99.7
99.7
99.8
99.9
100.7
100 6
100.7
101.0
101.1
101.1

24 1
19.6
16 9
20.0
23.5
22.6
23.6
27.9
25.4
26.1
28 9
34 5
37.5
39.7
42.8
43 4
49.7
77.4
88 5
81.9
94.1
102.5
99.5
99 4
97.6
102.3
103.8
98.5
97 4
104 1
100 4
95.9
96.5
. 98.6
A100 6
v. ioi. 1
Y
105.6
105.4
119.3
132. 0
108.6
111.6
113.9
115.8
117.0
117.2

100.0
100.5
100.9
101.2
101.1
101.2
102.5
103.0
102.7
103.5
104.4
104.5

119.2
120 5
122.6
124.9
126.8
133.5
137.8
144.5
149.5
143.3
138.0
129.8
125.3
124.0
123.2
122.6
123.9
122.5

Machinery and
equipment

44.1

75.3
78.6
75.2
77.1
91.3
89.0
88.7
88.8
91.1
97.2
99.0
100.1
101.0
101.8
98.8
100.0
99.2
99.0
99.9
102.6
103.8
105.2
108.2
105.2
105.7
105.2
105.2
105.5
104.7
104.9
104.9
105.1
105.2
105.2
105.2
106.2
106.8
107.4
108.0
108.1
108.3
108.4
108.7
108.8
109.0
109.3
109.5

39.7
35.7
32.8
33 6
37.1
37.0
37.8
43.2
41.6
41.2 ""~46.~2~
41 4
46.3
47.1
42.2
47.8
42.8
47.4
42.7
47.1
42.7
43.4
47.2
51.9
48.5
60.2
60.0
68 5
65.1
68.2
69.0
70.5
72.7
78.8
80.9
78.9
81.0
80.7
83.6
82.1
84.3
90.0
84.6
97.8
91.5
99.7
97.9
99.1
100.0
101.2
102.1
101.3
102.9
100.7
102.9
102.9
100.0
103.1
100.1
103.8
102.8
105.0
105.7
108.2
108.3
111.8
109.6
115.2
112.4
119.0
118.9
112.2
113.9
113.3
114.1
113.8
114.3
113.3
114.8
111.7
115.0
111.7
115.0
111.4
115.2
115 4
111 3
112.2
115.8
112.5
116.1
112.4
116.6
112.8
116.7
114.4
117.0
115.2
117.3
115.8
117.8
116.5
118.0
117.5
118.3
117.9
118.6
118.7
119.0
120.4
119.1
121.7
119.9
122.4
120.5
122.9
121 0
123.8
121.9

Transportation
equipFurniment:
ture and NonmeMisceltallic
Motor
houselaneous
mineral vehicles products
hold
and
durables products
equipment i
56.4

53.4

42 8

55.5
51 1
45.0
45.1
49.0
48 6
49.3
54.7
53.4
53.2
54 4
57 8
62.5
62.1
63.8
63 9
67 8
77.8
82 5
83.8
85.6
92.8
91.1
92 9
93 9
94 3
96.9
99.4
100 2
100.4
100 1
99.5
98.8
98.1
98 5
98.0
99.1
101.1
104.0
106.1
103.0
103.3
103.6
103.8
104.0
103.9
104.1
104 2
104.4
104.5
104.7
105.0

53.2
49.7
46.5
49.2
52.6
52 6
52.7
53.9
52.2
51.2
51 2
52.4
54.5
54.7
55.8
58 1
61.8
69.1
74 7
76.7
78.6
83.5
83.5
86.9
88.8
91.3
95.2
98.9
99.9
101.2
101.4
101.8
101.8
101.3
101.5
101.7
102.6
104.3
108.1
112.8
106.0
106.9
107.3
107.4
107.8
108.3
108.4
108 7
108.7
108.9
109.2
109.3
110.6
111.2
111.9
112.3
112.6
112.8
113.0
113.0
113.5
113.8
113 9
114.5

40.3
38 3
37.3
35.6
37.5
36 0
35 7
38.2
40.8
40.0
41 3
44 2
48.2
48.2
48.5
49 4
57.2
65.5
72 4
77.4
77.0
81.1
85.8
85 4
85.6
88.2
93.2
97.2
100 3
102.5
101.0
100.8
100.8
100.0
100.5
100.7
100.8
102.2
104.9
107.0
104.3
104.3
104.3
104.3
104.2
104.5

105.3
105.4
105.7
105.8
105.9
105.9
106.1
106.2
106.4
106.5
106 9
107.2

i Index for total transportation equipment available only beginning December 1968.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




233

80.3
83.6
85.2
86.6
91.7
91.2
93.6
94.4
94.5
95.8
98.6
100.6
100.8
101.7
102.0
102.4
103.3
104.1
104.8
106.8
109.3
111.8
114.7
111.0
111.3
111.5
111.8
111.8
111.8
111.5
111.6
111.9
112.0
112.5
112.5

104.2
104 4
104.1
106.5
106.6
106.6
106.5
106.4
106.3
106.4
106.5
106.6

112.5
112.5
112.5
112.7
112.8
115.1

106.6
106.0
106.1
108.7
109.0
109.0

115.5
115.9
116.4
116.7
117.0
117.0

TABLE C-49.— Wholesale price indexes, by stage of processing, 1947-69
[1957-59=100J
Intermediate materials, supplies, and components 1
Crude materials

Materials and components for
manufacturing
Year or month

All
commodities

Foodstuffs
Total

and

feedstuffs

Nonfood
materials,
except
fuel

Vlaterials
Total

ComFornon- For
durable durable ponents
manu- manufactur- factur- facturing
ing
ing

Total

Fuel

For food

Materials
and
components
for construction

1947
1948
1949

81.2
87.9
83.5

100.8
110.5
95.6

113.0
122.2
101.5

86.5
96.2
87.5

73.6
87.0
86.5

76.5
82.7
79.4

75.5
81.5

78.0

102.6
105.8
91.0

90.7

66.4
68.2

63.0
68.0
69.3

69.6
77.0
77.2

1950....
1951
1952
1953
1954

96.7
94.0
92.7
92.9

104.2
119.6
109.9
101.5
100.6

108.9
126.0
118.6
106.2
106.2

100.0
115.3
99.9
95.6
93.8

86.1
87.7
88.3
87.3

83.0
93.0
90.3
90.8
91.3

81.8
92.7
88.8
90.2
90.4

94.7
105.5
101.4
101.6
100.7

95.2
110.3
99.3
98.5
96.9

72.1
80.1
80.3
83.9
85.7

71.9
81.6
81.8
8S.3
83.7

81.2
88.8
88.2
89.7
90.1

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

93.2
96.2
99.0
100.4
100.6

96.7
97.2
99.4
101.6
99.0

96.2
94.2
98.4
104.2
97.4

99.1
102.8
101.4
97.6
101.0

87.1
93.3
98.6
99.8
101.6

93.0
97.1
99.4
99.6
101. 0

92.6
96.9
99.3
99.7
101.0

97.5
97.9
99.7
102.0
98.3

97.3
98.8
100.1
99.1
100.8

90.0
95.7
98.8
99.5
101.8

87.4
95.4
99.1
99.9
101.1

93.7
98.5
99.1
99.1
101.8

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

100.7
100.3
[... 100.6
"y... 100.3
?l..X 100.5

96.6
96.1
97.1
95.0
94.1

96.2
94.9
96.8
94.0
91.9

96.8
97.9
97.4
96.2
97.8

102.5
102.3
101.8
103.0
102.5

101.0
100.3
100.2
100.5
100.9

101.0
99.8
99.2
99.4
100.4

99.5
102.6
100.5
105.5
104.0

100.8
98.6
98.0
97.1
97.8

101.9
100.5
100.4
100.5
102.5

100.6
10L1
99.7
99.6
99.3
98.8
99.6
98.8
99. lr ^100.6

102.5
105.9
106.1
108.7
113.0

98.9
105.3
99.6
101.1
107.9

98.3
107.2
101.2
102.5
110.4

99.8
101.9
95.5
97.4
102.0

103.3
106.4
110.5
112.7
117.6

102.2
104.8
105.6
108.0
111.8

102.0
104.0
104.7
107.1
110.8

106.6
111.3
109.2
110.7
116.8

98.7
99.5
98.7
100.2
101.2

104.6
106.6
108.1
118.1

101.3
104.9
108.0
110.5
114.0

107.2
108.0
108.2
108.3
108.5
108.7

99.1

101.8
102.6
102.9
104.1
103.2

98.2
98.4
98.9
97.6
96.6
96.7

111.4

Mar
Apr
May
June

99.1
100.9
101.6
101.4
102.0
101.4

111.7
112.2
112.3
112.4
112.2

106.9
107.6
107.7
107.9
107.7
107.8

106.3
106.9
107.1
107.2
106.9
106.8

108.7
109.9
109.6
109.7
110.6
111.3

99.8
100.1
99.9
100.0
100.3
100.0

110.9
112.0
112.7
112.3
110.9
110.9

109.4
109.9
110.0
110.6
110.5
110.3

107.4
108.5
109.3
109.9
109.8
110.0

July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

109.1
108.7
109.1
109.1
109.6
109.8

102.6
100.8
100.9
100.2
101.5
101.3

104.9
102.0
102.1
101.2
103.2
102.6

96.8
97.4
97.7
97.0
96.8
97.1

112.5
112.4
112.6
113.2
114.3
115.3

107.9
107.9
108.3
108.5
108.6
109.2

106.9
106.8
107.3
107.4
107.6
107.8

112.0
111.3
111.6
110.6
111.3
111.5

100.0
100.1
100.4
100.4
100.5
100.5

110.9
110.9
111.9
112.2
112.1
112.9

110.4
110.5
110.6
111.0
111.3
111.4

110.4
110.9
111.7
112.4
112.9
114.6

Mar
Apr
May
June

110.7
111.1
111.7
111.9
112.8
113.2

102.8
103.8
105.2
105.7
109.7
111.2

104.5
105.9
107.6
107.6
113.5
115.6

97.9
98.3
99.5
101.1
101.8
102.1

115.7
115.4
115.8
116.2
116.4
116.8

110.1
110.7
111.4
111.4
111.4
111.4

108.5
109.1
109.6
109.8
110.2
110.4

112.7
113.1
113.4
114.1
116.3
117.8

100.5
100.6
100.7
100.8
100.9
101.1

114.8
116.0
117.0
117.3
117.5
117.1

111.5
111.9
112.4
112.6
113.1
113.4

116.3
118.3
119.7
118.4
117.6
116.0

July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

113.3
113.4
113.6
114.0
114.7
115.1

110.2
109.5
108.7
108.7
109.0

113.8
112.1
110.4
110.5
111.0
112.2

102.6
104.1
104.8
104.0
104.0
104.2

117.1
117.2
118.1
119.9
121.1
121.5

111.4
111.9
112.4
112.8
113.1
113.5

110.6
111.4
111.8
112.2

117.8
118.4
118.3
119.2
120.0

101.2
101.7
101.7
101.5
101.7

117.4
118.7
119.6
120.0
120.4

119.9

101.6

121.4

113.9
114.3
115.1
116.1
116.7
117.0

115.4
115.5
115.8
116.2
116.7
116.8

r _.

i965

y.

1966
1967
1968
1969
1968: Jan
Feb

1969: Jan

Feb

109.9

91.4

See footnotes at end of table.




234

112.6
112.9

94.0
99.5

58.8

111.7

101.4
104.1
105.4

1UU
116.9

TABLE G-49.—Wholesale price indexes, by stage of processing, 1947-69—Continued
[1957-59=1001
Special groups of industrial
products

Finishec1 goods
Consumer finished goods
Year or month
Total
Total

Foods

Other
nondurable
goods

Durable
goods

Producer
finished
goods

Crude
materials 2

InterConmediate
sumer
materials, finished
supplies, goods exand com- cluding
ponents 3
foods

1947
1948
1949

80.1
86.4
84.0

86.1
92.6
88.3

90.7
99.0
91.0

86.5
92.0
88.2

75.9
81.1
83.2

61.8
67.4
70.7

79.2
92.5
84.0

73.4
79.8
77.8

83.1
88.4
86.5

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

85.5
93.6
93.0
92.1
92.3

89.8
98.2
97.0
95.4
95.3

92.8
104.2
103.3
97.9
97.1

89.6
96.5
94.1
95.0
95.3

84.1
89.7
90.4
91.1
91.8

72.4
79.5
80.8
82.1
83.1

93.6
102.9
93.1
92.4
88.0

81.4
91.2
88.3
89.4
89.8

87.8
94.2
92.9
93 7
94 1

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

92.5
95.1
98.6
100.8
100.6

94.7
96.1
98.9
101.0
100.1

94.7
94.5
97.8
103.5
98.7

95.8
97.7
99.9
99.3
100.8

92.8
95.9
98.7
100.1
101.3

85.6
92.0
97.7
100.2
102.1

96.6
102.3
100.9
96.9
102.3

92.5
97.0
99.6
99.4
101.0

94.8
97 1
99.5
99.6
100.9

I960
1961
1962
1963
1964

101.4
101.4
101.7
101.4
101.8

101.1
100.9
101.2
100.7
100.9

100.8
100.4
101.3
100.1
100.6

101.5
101.5
101.6
101.9
101.6

100.9
100.5
100.0
99.5
99.9

-102.3
102.5
102.9
103.1
104.1

98.3
97.2
95.6
94.3
97.1

101.4
100.1
99.9
99.6
100.2

101.3
101.2
101 0
101.0
100.9

. ....

103.6
106.9
108.2
111.3
115.3

102.8
106.4
107.0
109.9
114.0

104.5
111.2
109.5
113.4
120.3

102.8
104.8
107.2
109.4
112.3

99.6
100.2
101.7
103.9
105.8

105.4
108.0
111.6
115.3
119.3

100.9
104.5
100.0
101.8
110.5

101.5
103.6
104.8
107.5
111.3

101.7
103.2
105.2
107.4
109.9

1968: Jan
Feb
Mar.
Apr
May . . . .
June

109.7
110.2
110.4
110.5
110.9
111.3

108.2
108.9
109.0
109.0
109.5
110.0

110.6
112.0
111.9
111.7
113.0
113.6

108.0
108.4
108.6
109.0
109.1
109.8

103.5
103.5
103.6
103.5
103.5
103.5

114.0
114.2
114.4
.114.8
114.9
115.1

101.4
102.4
103.1
101.7
100.5
100.6

106.3
107.0
107.3
107.5
107.3
107.2

106 4
106.7
106.8
107.0
107.0
107.5

July..
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

111.9
111.4
112.0
112.0
112.5
112.6

110.7
110.0
110.7
110.6
111.0
111.1

115.3
113.7
115.6
113.9
114.8
115.2

110.0
109.7
109.9
110.0
110.2
110.2

103.3
103.6
103.4
104.9
105.0
105.0

115.2
115.4
115.7
116.4
116.9
117.1

100.9
101.0
101.5
102.2
103.0
103.8

107.3
107.4
107.8
108.1
108.2
108.8

107.5
107.5
107 5
108.2
108.4
108.3

113.2
113.3
113.7
113.8
114.7
115.4

111.8
111.7
112.2
112.3
113.5
114.2

116.8
116.4
117.1
116.9
120.1
121.3

110.4
110.7
111.2
111.5
111.4
112.2

105.1
105.1
105.3
105.4
105.4
105.5

117.6
117.8
118.0
118.1
118.5
118.7

105.0
105.5
107.2
109.0
109.7
110.2

109.7
110.4
111.1
111.0
111.1
110.8

108.4
108 7
109.0
109.2
109 2
109.7

115.9
115.7
116.0
116.5
117.6
118.0

114.8
114.4
114.7
115.1
116.2
116.5

122.3
121.2
121.6
121.2
123.9
124.5

112.6
113.0
113.3
113.6
113.8
114.1

105.6
105.2
105.3
106.9
107.1
107.2

119.3
119.3
119.9
120.8
121.5
122.3

110.7
112.5
113.9
113.7
114.1
114.5

110.9
111.3
111.8
112.2
112.6
112.9

110.0
110 1
110.3
111.1
111.3
111.5

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

.

1969: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec .

...

> Includes, in addition to subgroups shown, processed fuels and lubricants, containers, and supplies.
> Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaf tobacco.
> Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds.
Note.—For a listing of the commodities included in each sector, see monthly report "Wholesale Prices and Price
Indexes," January-February 1967.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.




235

MONEY SUPPLY, CREDIT, AND FINANCE
TABLE C-50.—Money supply, 1947-69
[Averages of daily figures, billions of dollars]

Year and month

Total
money
supply
and
time
deposits
adjusted

Money supply

Total

CurDerency mand
com- deposit
pocomnent 1 ponent2

Time
deposits
adjust-

Total
money
supply
and
time
deposits
adjusted

Money supply
Time
Aa

Total

Seasonally adjusted

CurDeposits
rency mand
adcom- deposit justpo- 1 com- 2 ed 3
nent ponent

U.S.
Government
demand
deposits 4

Unadjusted

1947: Dec
1948: Dec
1949: Dec

148.5
147.6
147.6

113.1
111.5
111.2

26.4
25.8
25.1

86.7
85.8
86.0

35.4
36.0
36.4

151.1
150.0
150.0

115.9
114.3
113.9

26.8
26.2
25.5

88.1
88.4

35.1
35.7
36.1

1.0
1.8
2.8

1950:
1951:
1952:
1953:
1954:

152.9
160.8
168.6
173.3
180.6

116.2
122.7
127.4
128.8
132.3

25.0
26.1
27.3
27.7
27.4

91.2
96.5
100.1
101.1
104.9

36.7
38.2
41.1
44.5
48.3

155.6
163.8
171.7
176.4
183.6

119.2
125.8
130.8
132.1
135.6

25.4
26.6
27.8
28.2
27.9

93.8
99.2
103.0
103.9
107.7

36.4
38.0
40.9
44.2
48.0

2.4
2.7
4.9
3.8
5.0

1955: Dec.
1956: D e c
1957: Dec..
1958: Dec..
1959: Dec

185.2
188.8
193.3
206.6
209.3

135.2
136.9
135.9
141.1
141.9

27.8
28.2
28.3
28.6
28.9

107.4
108.7
107.6
112.6
113.1

50.0
51.9
57.4
65.4
67.4

188.2
191.7
196.0
209.3
212.2

138.6
140.3
139.3
144.7
145.6

28.4
28.8
28.9
29.2
29.5

110.2
111.5
110.4
115.5
116.1

49.6
51.4
56.7
64.6
66.6

3.4
3.4
3.5
3.9
4.9

1960:
1961:
1962:
1963:
1964:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

213.9
228.1
245.2
265.2
285.9

141.1
145.4
147.4
153.0
159.3

28.9
29.6
30.6
32.5
34.2

112.1 72.9
115.9 82.7
116.8 97.8
120.5 112.2
125.1 126.6

216.8
231.2
248.2
268.2
289.2

144.7
149.4
151.6
157.3
164.0

29.6
30.2
31.2
33.1
35.0

115.2 72.1
119.2 81.8
120.3 96.7
124.1 111.0
129.1 125.2

4.7
4.9
5.6
5.1
5.5

1965:
1966:
1967:
1968:
1969:

Dec..
Dec..
Dec.
Dec..
Dec p.

313.4
328.9
365.4
399.7
393.8

166.7
170.4
181.7
194.8
199.7

36.3
38.3
40.4
43.4
46.0

130.4
132.1
141.3
151.4
153.7

146.7
158.5
183.7
204 9
194.1

317.3
332.7
369.5
404.1
398.4

172.0
175.8
187.5
201.0
206.0

37.1
39.1
41.2
44.3
47.0

134.9
136.7
146.2
156.7
159.1

145.2
156.9
182.0
203.1
192.4

4.6
3.4
5.0
5.0
5.5

1968:Jan...
Feb...
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June..

366.7
369.1
371.5
372.8
375.1
376.9

182.6
183.3
184.2
185.1
186.8
188.2

40.6
40.7
41.1
41.3
41.6
41.9

142.0
142.6
143.2
143.8
145.3
146.3

184.1
185.8
187.2
187.7
188.2
1I88.6

371.8
367.7
370.3
374.2
371.8
375.2

188.1
181.9
182.6
186.1
183.2
186.4

40.5
40.3
40.7
41.0
41.3
41.8

147.5
141.6
141.9
145.1
141.9
144.6

183.8
185.8
187.8
188.0
188.6
188.8

5.0
7.2
6.7
4.3
6.5
5.6

July..
Aug_.
Sept..
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.

380.7
384.8
387.8
391.3
395.7
399.7

189.6
191.0
191.4
191.8
193.6
194.8

42.1
42.4
42.7
42.8
43.2
43.4

147.5
148.6
148.8
149.1
150.5
151.4

191.1
193.8
196.4
199.4
202.1
204.9

379.3
382.7
386.7
391.6
396.5
404.1

188.1
188.0
190.1
192.0
195.3
201.0

42.3
42.5
42.7
42.8
43.6
44.3

145.9
145.5
147.4
149.2
151.7
156.7

191.1
194.7
196.6
199.6
201.3
203.1

5.8
5.6
6.1
6.3
4.5
5.0

1969:Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.

399.0
398.7
399.1
400.4
400.0
399.8

195.8
196.3
196.8
198.1
198.3
199.0

43.5
43.8
44.1
44.2
44.5
44.8

152.3
152.5
152.6
154.0
153.8
154.2

203.2
202.4
202.3
202.3
201.7
200.8

404.5
397.2
397.9
401.9
396.6
398.0

201.7
194.8
195.0
199.2
194.4
197.0

43.5
43.4
43.7
43.8
44.2
44.7

158.2
151.4
151.3
155.3
150.3
152.3

202.8
202.4
202.9
202.7
202.2
201.0

4.9
6.9
4.8
5.4
9.2
6.0

397.0
393.5
393.1
392.6
392.7
393.8

199.3
199.0
199.0
199.1
199.3
199.7

45.0
45.3
45.2
45.6
45.9
46.0

154.4
153.8
153.7
153.6
153.4
153.7

197.7
194.5
194.1
193.5
193.4
,194.1

395.5
391.4
391.9
393.0
393.6
398.4

197.8
195.9
197.6
199.3
201.0
203.0

45.2
45.4
45.2
45.6
46.4
47.0

152.7
150.5
152.4
153.7
154.7
159.1

197.7
195.5
194.3
193.7
192.6
192.4

5.6
4.3
5.3
4.2
5.1
5.5

Dec
Dec.
Dec
Dec.
Dec.

July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec p..

1 Currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve System, and the vaults of all commercial banks.
2
Demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, less cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float, plus foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve
banks.
3 Time deposits adjusted are time deposits at all commercial banks other than those due to domestic commercial banks
and the U.S. Government.
4
Deposits at all commercial banks.
Note.—Effective June 1966, balances accumulated for payment of personal loans are reclassified for reserve purposes and
are excluded from time deposits reported by member banks. The estimated amount of such deposits at all commercial
banks ($1.1 billion) is excluded from time deposits adjusted thereafter.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




236

TABLE C-51.-

-Bank loans and investments,
[Billions of dollars]

1930-69
Weekly reporting large
commercial
banks 3

All commercial banks
End of year or month *

1930 June
1931 June
1932 June
1933 June
1934 June
1935
1936
1937...
1938
1939
1940
1941..
1942
1943
1944 .
1945
1946
1947
1948

Total loans
and investments 2

Investments
Loans 2
34.5
29.2
21.8
16.3
15.7
15.2
16.4
17.2
16.4
17.2
18.8
21.7
19.2
19.1
21.6
26.1
31.1
38.1
42.4

48.9
44.9
36.1
30.4
32.7
36.1
39.6
38.4
38.7
40.7
43.9
50.7
67.4
85.1
105.5
124.0
114.0
116.3
114.2

.

U.S. Government securities
50
6.0
62
7.5
10.3
13 8
15.3
14.2
15 1
16.3
17.8
21.8
41.4
59 8
77.6
90.6
74.8
69 2
62.6

Other
securities
9.4
9.7
8.1
6.5
6.7
7.1
7.9
7.0
7.2
7.1
7.4
7.2
6.8
6.1
6.3
7.3
8.1
9.0
9.2

Business loans*

5.1
4.2
4.7
5.3
7.1
6.3
6.4
6.5
7.3
11.3
14.7
15.6

Seasonally adjusted
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954 . .
1955
1956
1957
1958 . .
1959
1960...
1961
1962 .
1963 . .
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 P
1968: J a n . . . .
Feb
Mar.
Apr
May
June . .
July
Aug
Sept
Oct .
Nov
Dec
1969:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May.
June
June
July
Aug
Sept
Octp
Nov v
Dec v

.
.

_

_.

._
.

.. .

113.0
118.7
124.7
130.2
139.1
143.1
153.1
157.6
161.6
166.4
181.2
185.9
194.5
209.6
227.9
246.2
267.2
294.4
s 310.5
346 5
384.6
398.6
349.9
353.9
352.5
355.2
357.3
357.8
365.9
370.4
374.6
379.4
381.6
384.6
385.9
387.9
386.6
390.7
392.2
392.5
6
397 3
397.7
397.5
396.5
396.8
399.7
398.6

41.5
42.0
51.1
56.5
62.8
66.2
69.1
80.6
88.1
91.5
95.6
107.8
113.8
120.4
134.0
149.6
167.7
192.6
s 208.2
225 4
251.6
276.2
227.5
229.2
229.0
231.4
232.6
233.5
238.4
241.1
243.6
246.7
250.4
251.6
253.7
258.4
257.3
261.0
264.1
264.3
6 269 2
269.9
270.3
271.3
273.3
275.5
276.2

1

62.3
66.4
61.1
60.4
62.2
62.2
67.6
60.3
57.2
56.9
65.1
57.7
59.8
65.3
64.6
61.7
60.7
57.1
53.6
59 7
61.5
51.8
60.0
62.0
59.9
60.3
61.0
60.4
63.1
63.9
64.0
64.2
61.0
61.5
60.8
58.1
57.4
57.7
56.1
56.2
6 56 3
56.8
56.9
54.7
53.4
53.2
51.8

9.2
10.3
12.4
13.4
14.2
14.7
16.4
16.8
16.3
17.9
20.5
20.5
20.8
23.9
29.2
35.0
38.7
44.8
M8.7
61.4
71.5
70.5
62.4
62.7
63.6
63.4
63.6
63.9
64.4
65.5
67.0
68.5
70.2
71.5
71.4
71.5
71.9
72.1
72.0
72.0
671.8
71.0
70.3
70.5
70.1
71.0
70.5

15.6
13.9
17.9
21.6
23.4
23.4
22.4
26.7
30.8
31.8
31.7
30.7
32.2
32.9
35.2
38.8
42.1
3 53.1
60.7
65.8
73.1
81.6
64.9
64.9
66.4
67.4
66.9
69.0
69.0
68.0
69.3
69.7
71.2
73.1
72.9
73.7
75.0
76.7
76.6
78.4
77.6
76.6
78.1
77.6
78. C

81.6

Data are for last Wednesday of month (except June 30 and December 31 call dates used for all commercial banks).
2 Adjusted to exclude interbank loans beginning 1948.
s Loans by weekly reporting large commercial banks beginning 1965 and formerly weekly reporting member banks.
* Commercial and industrial loans and prior to 1956, agricultural loans. Beginning July 1959, loans to financial institutions excluded. Prior to 1943, published data adjusted to include open-market paper.
s Effective June 1966, balances accumulated for payment of personal loans (about $1.1 billion) are excluded from loans
at all commercial banks, and certain certificates of CCC and Export-Import Bank totaling about $1 billion are included in
other securities rather than in loans.
e New series beginning June 1969; for details see "Federal Reserve Bulletin", August 1969.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

3 7 2 - 1 1 1 O—70




237

TABLE C-52.—Total funds raised in credit markets by nonfinancial sectors, 1961—69
[Billions of dollars]
Nonfinancial sector

1961

Total funds raised .

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

46.9

All other sectors

57.7

66.9

70.4

68.5

82.6

97.4

7.0

4.0

6.4

1.7

3.5

13.0

13.4

6.7
.6

Public debt securities..
Budget agency issues

54.1

7.2

U S Government

6.2
.8

4.1
-.1

5.4
1.0

1.3
.4

23
1.2

89
4.1

10 3
3.0

39.6

Corporate equity shares
Debt capital instruments....
State and local governments
Corporate and foreign
bonds
Mortgages

53.7

60.5

68.7

64.9

69.6

84.1

33.1

35.7

37.9

39.1

39.9

48.0

50.5

2.8
29.1

.6
32.6

35! 9

1.6
36.3

.3
38.8

.9
39.0

2.4
45.7

-.7
51.2

.

Savings institutions, net
Insurance
Finance n e c, net.,
Funds advanced
Less funds raised

7.7

9.9

11.0
22.3

15.9
22.0

14 0
27.3

11.1
2.6
4.0
1.1

12.8
2.8
4.8
1.3

15.1
3.2
5.1
1.6

15.6
4.5
3.8
2.1

15.4
3.6
4.4
2.2

11.4
3.1
5.7
2.1

11.6
3.6
4.7
2.1

15.2
3.5
6.6
2.1

14.0

18.0

22.6

29.5

25.0

21.6

33.6

5.2
5.8
.1
2.8

6.0
7.9

8.3
8.5

14.2
10.0

4.1

5.1

5.7

10.3
7.2
1.0
6.4

9.6
4.6
2.1
5.2

13.4
11.1
1.6
7.5

54.1

57.7

66.9

70.4

68.5

82.6

97.4

1.6
.4

2.0
.1

1.5
.1

2.8
.4

2.8
*

4.9
.3

4.6
.5

5.2
-.2

1.6
1.5

1.6

.7
.4

2.2
2.3

5.1
4.8

-.1
-.6

3.2
3.5

2.0
19.5
26.6

2.9
19.1
29.9

3.4
21.8
31.0

3.8
28.3
30.1

3.5
16.7
25.9

4.8
36.8
36.1

3.7
39.0
33.5

12.9
14.4
-.7

15.5
14.3
.1

16.0
15.6
-.5

13.7
17.9
-1.4

7.8
19.3
-1.3

16.9
20.4
-1.2

14.5
21.5
-2.5

3.3
3.5

.

5.7

5.9
25.6

10.9
13.1
-.2

Funds advanced
Less funds raised

7.3

4.5
26.1

1.5
15.7
23.8

U S Government
U.S. Government credit agencies, net.

5.7

4.9
25.1

1.0
.7

Total funds supplied directly

5.9

5.5
21.7

46.9

Bank loans n.e.c
Consumer credit.. .
Open-market paper
Other

5.3

2.9
1.8
1.0
2.0

Other private credit

5.2
5.1
18.8

7.7

Home..
..
Other residential..
Commercial
Farm

Federal Reserve System
Commercial banks, net
Private nonbank finance

47.1

31.9

Capital market instruments

4.6
5.3

5.8
5.8

5.5
6.1

6.9
8.3

5.8
7.1

4.4
5.6

9.8
12.3

.8

1.5

.9

.6

-.3

-1.8

2.8

2.5

. .

3.1

2.4

3.4

7.0

5.6

19.1

13.8

Business
State and local government,
general funds
Households.
Less net security credit

.5

1.8

2.9

2.0

1.0

3.6

-3.0
*

.8
3.0
1.3

1.2
-.8
-.2

1.1
1.3
2.0

.9
4.0
-.2

2.5
2.5
.3

3.4
11.9
-.2

1.2
-2.0
2.2

.7
5.5
1.4

Foreign
Private domestic nonfinancial

See footnote at end of table.




238

9.0

TABLE C—52.—Total funds raised in credit markets by nonjinancial sectors, 1961—69—Continued
[Billions of dollars]
1969 unadjusted quarter- 1969 seasonally adjusted
ly totals
annual rates

Nonfinancial sector

1

III

1

17.0

Total funds raised

II

II

III
100.9

Budget agency issues

20.8

96.3

88.8

3.4

-.4

-18.7

15.1

.1 -11.6
.1
.8

Public debt securities

23.0

.2 -10.9

U.S. Government

4.6
-1.2

-.4
-.1

-22.5
3.8

19.2
-4.1

16.8

33.9

17.5

96.7

107.5

85.8

12.4
*
12.3

15.4

12.7

56J. 1

55.9

48.1

.4
15.0

.2
12.4

.2
56.0

1.7
54.2

1.0
47.2

2.5
3.8
6.0

3.4
3.9
7.6

1.6
3.6
7.2

11.5
16.3
28.2

11.5
14.7
28.0

6.8
13.1
27.2

3.4
.9
1.3
.5

4.3
1.1
1.4
.7

4.4
1.0
1.4
.5

16.3
3.7
5.9
2.2

16.2
4.3
5.1
2.4

15.9
3.9
5.3
2.1

4.4

18.5

4.8

40.6

51.6

37.6

.7
-1.2
1.7
3.2

8.3
4.0
1.5
4.7

-1.5
1.6
1.4
3.3

15.1
9.9
5.7
9.8

17.9
10.4
5.2
18.1

5.8
8.2
5.6
18.0

17.0

23.0

20.8

96.3

88.8

100.9

1.2
*

1.4
-.1

1.7
-.2

5.1
-.2

5.9
-1.1

7.3
-.6

.9
.9

2.3
2.3

2.5
2.7

4.8
5.0

6.5
7.6

11.8
12.3

-.5
-7.4
8.7

1.7
9.0
7.5

-4.5
7.6

.1
4.6
31.6

2.3
15.3
35.8

3.5
-.2
30.7

Savings institutions, net
Insurance
Finance, n.e.c, net

4.5
5.5
-1.3

3.0
4.6

1.7
6.2
-.3

16.3
20.8
-5.5

16.2
21.0
-1.4

6.4
24.5
-.2

Funds advanced

-2.3
-1.0

5.6
5.6

1.6
1.9

-6.7
-1.2

17.1
18.5

15.7
15.8

All other sectors
Capital market instruments
Corporate equity shares
Debt capital instruments
..
State and local governments
Corporate and foreign bonds
Mortgages
Home
Other residential
Commercial
Farm
Other private credit
Bank loans n.e.c
Consumer credit
Open-market paper
Other

.

Total funds supplied directly
U.S. Government
U.S. Government credit agencies, net
Funds advanced
Less funds raised
Federal Reserve System._.
Commercial banks, net
Private nonbank finance

Less funds raised

-.3

Private domestic nonfinancial
Business
State and local government, general funds
Households
Less net security credit

-.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System




239

-.1

1.8

-.1

.4

5.7

15.2

Foreign

3.5

14.4

55.2

30.2

54.4

3.6
3.5
7.3
-.8

3.4
2.2
-2.2
-.1

3.8
-.3
11.3
.3

21,2
9.3
21.8
-2.8

15.9
6.9
6.8
-.6

22.3
4.5
29.1

TABLE G-53.—Selected liquid assets held by the public, 1946-69 *
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Time deposits

U.S.
Government
securities
maturing
within
1 year4

Postal
savings
system

Savings
and
loan
shares

U.S.
Government
savings
bonds4

16.9
17.8
18.4
19.3

3.3
3.4
3.3
3.2

8.5
9.7
11.0
12.5

48.6
50.9
53.4
55.0

19.4
16.6
21.6
25.5

36.6
38.2
41.2
44.6
48.2

20.1
20.9
22.6
24.4
26.3

2.9
2.7
2 5
2.4
2.1

14.0
16.1
19 2
22.8
27.2

55.8
55.4
55 7
55 6
55.6

26.4
26.8
29 3
34.4
30.6

133.3
134.6
133.5
138.8
139.7

49.7
52.0
57.5
65.4
67.4

28.1
30.0
31.6
33.9
34.9

1.9
1.6
1.3
1.1
.9

32.0
37.0
41.7
47.7
54.3

55 9
54.8
51.6
50.5
47.9

31.6
33.2
38.8
35.6
48.8

399.2
424.6
459.0
495.4
530.5

138.4
142.6
144.8
149.6
156.7

73.1
82.5
98.1
112.9
127.1

36.2
38.3
41.4
44.5
49.0

.8
.6

61.8
70.5
79.8
90.9
101.4

47.0
47 4
47.6
49.0
49.9

41.9
42.6
46.8
48.1
46.1

573.1
601.5
650.4
709.6
729.0

164.1
168.6
180.7
• 199.2
206.2

147.1
159.3
183.1
203.8
195.9

52.6
55.2
60.3
64.7
67.1

109.8
113.4
123.9
131.0
134.7

50.5
50.9
51.9
52 5
52.4

48.6
53.9
50.5
58.5
72.7

968"Jan
Feb
MarApr
May
June

655 8
658.6
665.6
664.6
667.8
670.8

179.6
178.2
181.7
181.1
183.9
186.7

186.5
187.6
187.9
187.6
187.7
187.9

60.6
61.1
61.4
61.7
62.1
62.6

123.6
124.6
125.8
125.9
126.4

51.9
51.8
51.8
51.8
51.8
51.9

53.6
55.4
57.0
56.5
55.9
54.9

July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

676.5
679.6
684.9
693.1
699.4
709.6

186.2
185.9
186.4
188.0
190.6
6199.2

191.5
194.0
196.2
200.4
204.7
203.8

62.8
63.0
63.4
63.8
64.3
64.7

127.2
128.1
129.5
130.0
130.8
131.0

51.9
52.0
52.0
52.0
52.1
52.5

56.9
56.6
57.4
58.9
570
58.5

1969:Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June

i 703.7
705.7
713.2
710.0
714.3
713 8

188.8
189.8
192.4
190.8
191.5
194.1

203.4
202.9
201.9
200.6
202.7
200.4

64.8
65.2
65.5
65.7
66.1
66.3

131.0
132.0
133.4
133.3
133.5
133.6

52.5
52.3
52.2
52.2
52.2
52.2

7 63.4
63.4
67.7
67.5
68.3
67.3

2 709.5
713.1
718.0
714.3
720.6
729.0

2 191.8
193.2
194.1
193.6
195.0
206.2

197.5
195.7
195.6
195.4
197.1
195.9

66.3
66.4
66.6
66.7
67.0
67.1

133.6
134.1
135.3
134.9
135.3
134.7

52.2
52.1
52.0
52.0
52.0
52.4

68.1
71.6
74.6
71.7
74.2
72.7

Demand
deposits
and
currency2

Commercial
banks 3

239.1
246.2
254.1
262.1

108.5
112.4
110.5
110.4

33.9
35.3
35.9
36.3

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

271.4
281.0
296.0
311.5
320.3

115.5
120.9
125.5
127.3
130.2

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

332.5
343.2
356.0
373.1
393.9

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966»
1967
1968
1969 v

End of year or month

1946
1947
1948
1949

.

July
Aug .
Sept
Octp
Nov*
Dec p

Total

Mutual
savings
banks

.5
.4
.3
.1

1 Excludes holdings of the U.S. Government, Government agencies and trust funds, domestic commercial banks, and
Federal Reserve banks. Adjusted wherever possible to avoid double counting.
2 Agrees in concept with the money supply, Table C-50, except for deduction of demand deposits held by mutual savings
banks and savings and loan associations. Data are for last Wednesday of month. Data prior to July 1969 have not been revised to conform to the money supply revision.
3 Time deposits at all commercial banks other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government
(same concept as in Table C-50). Data are for last Wednesday of month, except that June 30 and December 31 call
data are used where available.
4
Excludes holdings ot Government agencies and trust funds, domestic commercial and mutual savings banks, Federal
Reserve banks, and beginning February 1960, savings and loan associations.
» Effective June 1966, balances accumulated for the payment of personal loans (about $1.1 billion) are excluded from
time deposits at all commercial banks and from total liquid assets.
«Estimates for Tuesday, December 31, rather than last Wednesday of December.
7 Beginning 1969, data have been adjusted to conform to the new budget concept.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted).




240

TABLE C-54.—Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 1929—69
[Averages of daily figures, millions of dollars]
Member bank reserves

Reserve Bank credit outstanding
Year and month
Total

U.S.
Government securities

Member
bank
borrowings

All
other,
mainly
float

Total

Required

Excess

Member
bank free
reserves
(excess
reserves
less borrowings)

1929: Dec

1,643

446

801

396

2,395

2,347

48

-753

1930:
1931:
1932:
1933:
1934:
1935:
1936:
1937:
1938:
1939:

Dec
Dec .
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec. .
Dec...
Dec
Dec
Dec

1,273
1,950
2,192
2,669
2,472
2,494
2,498
2,628
2,618
2,612

644

337

292

777

763
281
95
10
6
7
16
7

410
57
142
32
58
57
47
47

2,342
2,010
1,909
il,822
2,290
2,733
4,619
5,808
5,520
6,462

73

60

-264
-703

1,854
2,432
2,430
2,430
2,434
2,565
2,564
2,510

2,415
2,069
2,435
2,588
4,037
5,716
6,665
6,879
8,745
11,473

526
1766
1,748
2,983
2,046
1,071
3,226
5,011

1,738
2,977
2,039
1,055
3,219
5,008

1940:
1941:
1942:
1943:
1944:
1945:
1946:
1947:
1948:
1949:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec...
Dec.
Dec
Dec
Dec.
Dec...
Dec

2,305
2,404
6,035
11,914
19,612
24,744
24,746
22,858
23,978
19,012

2,188
2,219
5,549
11,166
18,693
23,708
23,767
21,905
23,002
18,287

1950:
1951:
1952:
1953:
1954:
1955:
1956:
1957:
1958:
1959:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec .
Dec...
Dec
Dec
Dec

21,606
25,446
27,299
27,107
26,317
26,853
27,156
26,186
28,412
29,435

20,345
23,409
24,400
25,639
24,917
24,602
24,765
23,982
26,312
27,036

1960:
1961:
1962:
1963:
1964:
1965:
1966:
1967:
1968:
1969:

Dec.
Dec
Dec .
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec .
Dec
Dec*

29,060
31,217
33,218
36,610
39,873
43,853
46,864
51,268
56,610
64, 083

27,248
29,098
30,546
33,729
37,126
40,885
43,750
48,891
52,529
57, 500

51,287
50,873
51,863
52,509
52,998
53,813

1968: Jan
Feb.

Apr. .
May .
June
.

..
.

Nov
Dec
1969: Jan

Feb
Mar
Apr.
May
June
July. .
Aug
Sept

.

.

Oct
Nov
Dec*

3

99

3

114

5

180
482
658
654
702
822
729
842
607

14,049
12,812
13,152
12,749
14,168
16,027
16,517
17,261
19,990
16,291

7,403
9,422
10,776
11,701
12,884
14,536
15,617
16,275
19,193
15,488

6,646
3,390
2,376
1,048
1,284
1,491

6,643
3,385
2,372

900
986
797

743
762
663
685

1.119
,380
,306
,0?7
t 154
,41?
, 703
,494
, 543
493

17,391
20,310
21,180
19,920
19,279
19,240
19,535
19,420
18,899
2 18,932

16,364
19,484
20,457
19,227
18,576
18,646
18,883
18,843
18,383
18,450

1,027

594
652
577
516
482

-245

87
149
304
327
243
454
557
238
765

1,725
1,970
2,368
2,554
2,504
2,514
2,547
2,139
3,316
5,496

19,283
20,118
20,040
20,746
21,609
22,719
23,830
25,260
27,221
28,012

18,527
19,550
19,468
20,210
21,198
22,267
23,438
24,915
26,766
27,774

756
568
572
536
411
452
392
345

669
419
268
209
168
-2

455
238

-310
-849

49,046
48,930
49,511
50,090
50,581
51,306

237
361
671

25,834
25,610
25,580
25,546
25, 505
25,713

25,453

683
746
692

2,004
1,582
1,681
1,736
1,671
1,815

25,224
25,276
25,085
25,362

381
399
356
270
420
351

-315
-413
-326
-341

54,573
55,048
54,778
55,770
56,189
56,610

52,090
52,646
52,222
53,300
53,388
52,529

525
565
515
427
569
765

1,958
1,837
2,041
2,043
2,232
3,316

26,001
26,069
26,077
26,653
26,785
27,221

25,702
25,694
25,694
26,393
26,461
26, 766

299
375
383
260
324
455

-226
-190
-132
-167
-245
-310

56,476
55,786
55,477
58,821
59,999
60,565

.

Mar

July...
Aug
Sept
Oct

245
671

52,665
52,265
52,122
52,463
53,390
54, 028

697
824
918
996
1,402
1,407

3,114
2,697
2,437
5,362
5,207
5,130

28, 063
27,291
26,754
27,079
27,903
27,317

27, 846
27,063
26, 537
26,927
27,603
26,974

217
228
217
152
300
343

-480
-596
-701
—844
—1,102
—1,064

60,887
60,876
60,459
61,516
62,767
64,083

54,298
54,599
53,840
54,708
56,499
57, 500

1,190
1,249
1,067
1,135
1,241
1,087

5,399
5,028
5,552
5,673
5,027
5,496

26,980
27,079
26,971
27,340
27,764
28,012

26, 864
26,776
26, 735
27,197
27,511
27,774

116
303
236
143
253
238

—1,074
-946
-831
-992
-988
-849

4
90

265
334
157
224
134
118
142

657
1,593

441
246
839
688
710
557
906

1,087

1 Data from March 1933 through April 1934 are for licensed banks only.
Beginning December 1959, total reserves held include vault cash allowed.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
2




241

25,211

803

826
723
693
703

958

1,019
1,157

885
169
-870

252
457
-36
-133

-41

-424

-165

107

144
38

TABLE G-55.—Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-69
[Percent per annum]
Corporate
bonds
(Moody's)

U.S Government securities

Year or month
3-month
Treasury
bills i

9-12
month
issues 2

3-5
year
issues 3

Taxable
bonds4

Aaa

Baa

Average
rate on
Highshortgrade
term
municbank
ipal
loans
bonds
(Stand- to busiard & n e s s Poor's) selected
cities

1929

(6)

4.73

5.90

4.27

1930.
1931
1932
1933...
1934

(6)

5.90
7.62
9.30
7.76
6.32

4.07
4.01
4.65
4.71
4.03

(7)

Prime
commercial
paper,
4-6
months

Federal
Reserve
Bank
discount
fate

5.85

5.16

3.59
2 64
2.73
1.73
1.02

3.04
2.11
2.82
2.56
1.54

FHA
new
home
mortgage
yields s

1.402
879
.515
.256

2 66
2.12

4.55
4.58
5.01
4.49
4.00

1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

.137
.143
447
.053
.023

1 29
1.11
1 40
83
.59

3.60
3.24
3.26
3.19
3.01

5.75
4.77
5.03
5.80
4.96

3.41
3.07
3.10
2.91
2.76

2.1

.75
.75
.94
.81
.59

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944

014
.103
.326
.373
.375

0.75
.79

50
73
1.46
1.34
1.33

2.46
2.47
2.48

2.84
2.77
2.83
2.73
2.72

4.75
4.33
4.28
3.91
3.61

2.50
2.10
2.36
2.06
1.86

2.1
20
2.2
2.6
2.4

.56
53
.66
.69
.73

1.00
1.00
8 1.00
8 1.00
8 1.00

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

.375
.375
.594
1.040
1.102

.81
.82
.88
1.14
1.14

1.18
1.16
1.32
1.62
1.43

2.37
2.19
2.25
2.44
2.31

2.62
2.53
2.61
2.82
2.66

3.29
3.05
3.24
3.47
3.42

1.67
1.64
2.01
2.40
2.21

2.2
2.1
2 1
2.5
2.68

.75
.81
1.03
1.44
1.49

8 1.00
8 1.00
1.00
1.34
1.50

4.34

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

1.218
1 552
1.766
1.931
.953

1.26
1 73
1.81
2.07
.92

1.50
1 93
2.13
2.56
1.82

2.32
2 57
2.68
2.94
2.55

2.62
2.86
2.96
3.20
2.90

3.24
3.41
3.52
3.74
3.51

1.98
2.00
2.19
2.72
2.37

2.69
3.11
3.49
3.69
3.61

1.45
2.16
2.33
2.52
1.58

1.59
1.75
1.75
1.99
1.60

4.17
4.21
4.29
4.61
4.62

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

1.753
2.658
3.267
1.839
3.405

1.89
2.83
3.53
2.09
4.11

2.50
3.12
3.62
2.90
4.33

2.84
3.08
3.47
3.43
4.08

3.06
3.36
3.89
3.79
4.38

3.53
3.88
4.71
4.73
5.05

2.53
2.93
3.60
3.56
3.95

3.70
4.20
4.62
4.34
9 5.00

2.18
3.31
3.81
2.46
3.97

1.89
2.77
3.12
2.16
3.36

4.64
4.79
5.42
5.49
5.71

2.928
2.378
2.778
3.157
3.549

3.55
2.91
3.02
3.28
3.76

3.99
3.60
3.57
3.72
4.06

4.02
3.90
3.95
4.00
4.15

4.41
4.35
4.33
4.26
4.40

5.19
5.08
5.02
4.86
4.83

3.73
3.46
3.18
3.23
3.22

5.16
4.97
5.00
5.01
4.99

3.85
2.97
3.26
3.55
3.97

3.53
3.00
3.00
3.23
3.55

6.18
5.80
5.61
5.47
5.45

3.954
4.881
4.321
5.339
6.677

4.09
5.17
4.84
5.62
7.06

4.22
5.16
5.07
5.59
6.85

4.21
4.65
4.85
5.26
6.12

4.49
5.13
5.51
6.18
7.03

4.87
5.67
6.23
6.94
7.81

3.27
3.82
3.96
4.51
5.81

5.06
6.00
i° 6.00
6.68
8.21

4.38
5.55
5.10
5.90
7.83

4.04
4.50
4.19
5.17
5.87

5.46
6.29
6.55
7.13
8.19

Apr
May
June

4.759
4.554
4.288
3.852
3.640
3.480

4.71
4.64
4.35
4.03
4.09
4.40

4.71
4.73
4.52
4.46
4.68
4.96

4.40
1.47
I1 45
11.51
1.76
i 1.86

5.20
5.03
5.13
5.11
5.24
5.44

5.97
5.82
5.85
5.83
5.96
6.15

3.58
3.56
3.60
3.66
3.92
3.99

5.73
5.38
5.24
4.83
4.67
4.65

4.50
4.50
4.50
4.10
4.00
4.00

6.77
6.62
6.46
6.35
6.29
6.44

July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

4.308
4.275
4.451
4.588
4.762
5.012

4.98
5.10
5.21
5.32
5.55
5.69

5.17
5.28
5.40
5.52
5.73
5.72

I1.86

5.58
5.62
1.99 5.65
5 19 5.82
5.44 6.07
5.36 6.19

6.26
6.33
6.40
6.52
6.72
6.93

4.05
4.03
4.15
4.31
4.36
4.49

4.92
5.00
5.00
5.07
5.28
5.56

4.00
4.00
4.-00
4.00
4.18
4.50

6.51
6.53
6.60
6.63
6.65
6.77

I960....
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

. .-

1967: Jan..
Feb

Mr
a

,

I1.95

See footnotes at end of table.




242

(7)
(7)

v>
(7)

io 6.13
5.95

5.95
5.96

1.50
1 50
1.33
1.00
1.00

TABLE G-55 .—Bondyields and interest rates, 1929-69— Continued
[Percent per annum]
Corporate
bonds
(Moody's)

U.S. Government securities
Year or month
3-month
Treasury
bills i

9-12
month
issues2

5.081
4.969
5.144
5.365
5.621
5.544

5.39
5.37
5.55
5.63
6.06
6.01

5.53
5.59
5.77
5.69
5.95
5.71

5.382
5.095
5.202
5.334
5.492
5.916

5.68
5.41
5.40
5.44
5.56
6.00

1969: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June

6.177
6.156
6.080
6.150
6.077
6.493

July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

7.004
7.007
7.129
7.040
7.193
7.720

1968: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

_

3-5
Taxable
year
4
issues 3 bonds

Average
Highrate on
Prime
grade
shortcommunicterm
meripal
bank
cial
bonds
loans
(Stand- to busi- paper,
ard &
nessPoor's) selected months
cities

Aaa

Baa

5.18
5.16
5.39
5.28
5.40
5.23

6.17
6.10
6.11
6.21
6.27
6.28

6.84
6.80
6.85
6.97
7.03
7.07

4.34
4.39
4.56
4.41
4.56
4.56

5.44
5.32
5.30
5.42
5.47
5.99

5.09
5.04
5.09
5.24
5.36
5.66

6.24
6.02
5.97
6.09
6.19
6.45

6.98
6.82
6.79
6.84
7.01
7.23

4.36
4.31
4.47
4.56
4.68
4.91

6.26
6.21
6.22
6.11
6.26
7.07

6.04
6.16
6.33
6.15
6.33
6.64

5.74
5.86
6.05
5.84
5.85
6.05

6.59
6.66
6.85
6.89
6.79
6.98

7.32
7.30
7.51
7.54
7.52
7.70

4.95
5.10
5.34
5.29
5.47
5.83

7.59
7.51
7.76
7.63
7.94
8.34

7.02
7.08
7.58
7.47
7.57
7.98

6.07
6.02
6.32
6.27
6.52
6.81

7.08
6.97
7.14
7.33
7.35
7.72

7.84
7.86
8.05
8.22
8.25
8.65

5.84
6.07
6.35
6.21
6.37
6.91

6.36
6.84

6.89
6.61

7.32
7.86

8.82
8.83

Federal
Reserve
Bank
discount
rate

FHA
new
home
mortgage
yields s

5.60
5.50
5.64
5.81
6.18
6.25

4.50
4.50
4.66
5.20
5.50
5.50

6.81
6.81
6.78
6.83
6.94

6.19
5.88
5.82
5.80
5.92
6.17

5.50
5.48
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.36

7.52
7.42
7.35
7.28
7.29
7.36

6.53
6.62
6.82
7.04
7.35
8.23

5.50
5.50
5.50
5.95
6.00
6.00

7.50
7.99
8.05
8.06
8.06

8.65
8.33
8.48
8.57
8.46
8.84

6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00

8.35
8.36
8.36
8.40
8.48
8.48

* Rate on new issues within period. Issues were tax exempt prior to March 1,1941, and fully taxable thereafter. For the
period 1934-37, series includes issues with maturities of more than 3 months.
2 Certificates of indebtedness and selected note and bond issues (fully taxable).
8
Selected note and bond issues. Issues were partially tax exempt prior to 1941, and fully taxable thereafter.
4
First issued in 1941. Series includes bonds which are neither due nor callable before a given number of years as follows: April 1953 to date, 10 years; April 1952-March 1953,12 years; October 1941-March 1952, 15 years.
5
Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate (JlA percent beginning late January 1969).
Thru July 1961, computed on 25-year mortgages paid in 12 years and thereafter, 30-year mortgages prepaid in 15 years.
0
Treasury bills were first issued in December 1929 and were issued irregularly in 1930.
' Not available on same basis as for 1939 and subsequent years.
> From October 30, 1942, to April 24, 1946, a preferential rate of 0.50 percent was in effect for advances secured by
Government securities maturing in 1 year or less.
9
Beginning 1959, series revised to exclude loans to nonbank financial institutions.
10
Beginning February 1967, series revised to incorporate changes in coverage, in the sample of reporting banks, and
in the reporting period (shifted to the middle month of the quarter).
Note.—Yields and rates computed for New York City except for short-term bank loans.
Sources: Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's Corporation, and Federal Housing Administration.




243

TABLE C-56.—Short- and intermediate-term consumer credit outstanding, 1929-69
[Millions of dollars]
Instalment credit

End of year or month

Total

_
Total

Automobile
paper

Addendum:
Policy
loans by
life inOther 2 surance
companies 3

Noninstalment credit

......
.._r_..
Other
Repair
conand
conand
sumer moderngoods
ization
paper loans i

PerPersonal
loans

_
Total

Charge

ac-

counts

1929

7,116

3,524

1,384

1,544

27

569

3,592

1,996

1,596

2,379

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947

6,351
5,315
4,026
3,885
4,218
5,190
6,375
6,948
6,370
7,222
8,338
9,17?
5,983
4,901
5,111
5,665
8,384
11,598
14,447
17,364
21,471
22,712
27,520
31,393
32,464
38,830
42,334
44,971
45,129
51, 544
56,141
57,982
63,821
71,739
80,268
90,314
97,543
102,132
113,191
122,200
101,260
100,771
100.981
102,257
103,411
104,620
105,680
107,090
107,636
108,643
110,035
113,191
112,117
111,569
111,950
113,231
114,750
115,995
116,597
117,380
118,008
118,515
119,378
122,200

3,022
2,463
1,672
1,723
1,999
2,817
3,747
4,118
3,686
4,503
5,514
6,085
3,166
2,136
2,176
2,462
4,172
6,695
8,996
11,590
14,703
15,294
19,403
23,005
23,568
28,906
31,720
33,868
33,642
39,247
42,968
43,891
48,720
55,486
62,692
71,324
77,539
80,926
89,890
98,100
80,379
80,233
80,474
81,328
82,312
83,433
84,448
85,684
86,184
87,058
87,953
89,890
89,492
89,380
89,672
90,663
91,813
93,087
93,833
94,732
95,356
95,850
96,478
98,100

986
684
356
493
614
992
1,372
1,494
1,099
1,497
2,071
2,458
742
355
397
455
981
1,924
3,018
4,555
6,074
5,972
7,733
9,835
9,809
13,460
14,420
15,340
14,152
16,420
17,658
17,135
19,381
22,254
24,934
28,619
30,556
30,724
34,130
36,800
30,579
30,682
30,942
31,331
31,818
32,364
32,874
33,325
33,336
33,698
33,925
34,130
34,013
34,053
34,262
34,733
35,230
35,804
36,081
36,245
36,321
36,599
36,650
36,800

1,432
1,214
834
799
889
1,000
1,290
1,505
1,442
1,620
1,827
1,929
1,195
819
791
816
1,290
2,143
2,901
3,706
4,799
4,880
6,174
6,779
6,751
7,641
8,606
8,844
9,028
10,631
11,545
11,862
12,627
14,177
16,333
18,565
20,978
22,395
24,899
27,300
22,117
21,767
21,644
21,841
22,011
22,248
22,452
22,777
22,988
23,248
23,668
24,899
24,682
24,404
24,306
24,399
24,636
24,956
25,172
25,467
25,732
25,855
26,223
27,300

25
22
18
15
37
253
364
219
218
298
371
376
255
130
119
182
405
718
853
898
1,016
1,085
1,385
1,610
1,616
1,693
1,905
2,101
2,346
2,809
3,148
3,221
3,298
3,437
3,577
3,728
3,818
3,789
3,925
4,000
3,734
3,708
3,688
3,697
3,746
3,769
3,808
3,857
3,881
3,910
3,931
3,925
3,886
3,875
3,874
3,903
3,964
4,022
4,039
4,063
4,096
4,084
4,076
4,000

579
543
464
416
459
572
721
900
927
1,088
1,245
1,322
974
832
869
1,009
1,496
1,910
2,224
2,431
2,814
3,357
4,111
4,781
5,392
6,112
6,789
7,582
8,116
9,386
10,617
11,673
13,414
15,618
17,848
20,412
22,187
24,018
26,936
30,000
23,949
24,076
24,200
24,459
24,737
25,052
25,314
25,725
25,979
26,202
26,429
26,936
26,911
27,048
27,230
27,628
27,983
28,305
28,541
28,957
29,207
29,312
29,529
30,000

3,329

1,833
1,635
1,374
1,286
1,306
1,354
1,428
1,504
1,403
1,414
1,471
1,645
1,444
1,440
1,517
1,612
2,076
2,381
2,722
2,854
3,367
3,700
4,130
4,274
4,485
4,795
4,995
5,146
5,060
5,104
5,329
5,324
5,684
5,903
6,195
6,430
6,686
6,968
7,755
8,100
6,424
5,859
5,710
6,026
6,276
6,368
6,457
6,574
6,550
6,692
6,964
7,755
7,097
6,403
6,340
6,557
6,971
7,002
7,039
6,988
7,005
7,085
7,238
8,100

1,496
1,217
980
876
913
1,019
1,200
1,326
1,281
1,305
1,353
1,442
1,373
1,325
1,418
1,591
2,136
2,522
2,729
2,920
3,401
3,718
3,987
4,114
4,411
5,129
5,619
5,957
6,427
7,193
7,844
8,767
9,417
10,350
11,381
12,560
13,318
14,238
15,546
16,000
14,457
14,679
14,797
14,903
14,823
14,819
14,775
14,832
14,902
14,893
15,118
15,546
15,528
15,786
15,938
16,011
15,966
15,906
15,725
15,660
15,647
15,580
15,662
16,000

2,807
3,369
3,806
3,769
3,658
3,540
3,411
3,399
3,389
3,248
3,091
2,919
2,683
2,373
2,134
1,962
1,894
1,937
2,057
2,240
2,413
2,590
2,713
2,914
3,127
3,290
3,519
3,869
4,188
4,618
5,231
5,733
6,234
6,655
7,140
7,678
9,117
10,059
11,219

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 4

1968: Jan..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr,
May.
June.
July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec1969:Jan..
Feb..
Mar.
AprMay.
JuneJuly.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct_.
Nov.
Dec*.

1
Holdings of financial institutions only; holdings
2
Single-payment loans and service credit.
3

2,852
2,354
2,162
2,219
2,373
2,628
2,830
2,684
2,719
2,824
3,087
2,817
2,765
2,935
3,203
4,212
4,903
5,451
5,774
6,768
7,418
8,117
8,388
8,896
9,924
10,614
11,103
11,487
12,297
13,173
14,091
15,101
16,253
17,576
18,990
20,004
21,206
23,301
24,100
20,881
20,538
20,507
20,929
21,099
21,187
21,232
21,406
21,452
21,585
22,082
23,301
22,625
22,189
22,278
22,568
22,937
22,908
22,764
22,648
22,652
22,665
22,900
24,100

10,140
10,224
10,336
10,445
10,569
10,697
10,824
10,942
11,042
11,134
11,197
11,284
11,399
11,525
11,699
11,903
12,090
12,323
12,652
12,921
13,172
13,406
13,580

of retail outlets are included in "other consumer goods paper."

Year-end figures are annual statement asset values; month-end figures are book value of ledger assets. These loans
are not included in consumer credit series.
* Preliminary; December by Council of Economic Advisers.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Institute of Life Insurance (except as noted).




244

TABLE C-57.—Instalment credit extended and repaid, 1946-69
[Millions of dollars]
Automobile
paper

Total

Other consumer
goods paper

Repair and modernization loans

Personal
loans

Year or month
Extended

Repaid

Extended

Repaid

Extended

Repaid

1946.
1947
1948
1949

8,495
12,713
15,585
18,108

6,785
10,190
13,284
15,514

1,969
3,692
5,217
6,967

1,443
2,749
4,123
5,430

3,077
4,498
5,383
5,865

2,603
3,645
4,625
5,060

423
704
714
734

200
391
579
689

3,026
3,819
4,271
4,542

2,539
3,405
3,957
4,335

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

21,558
23,576
29,514
31,558
31,051

18,445
22,985
25,405
27,956
30,488

8,530
8,956
11,764
12,981
11,807

7,011
9,058
10,003
10,879
11,833

7,150
7,485
9,186
9,227
9,117

6,057
7,404
7,892
8,622
9,145

835
841
1,217
1,344
1,261

717
772
917
1,119
1,255

5,043
6,294
7,347
8,006
8,866

4,660
5,751
6,593
7,336
8,255

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

38,972
39,866
42,019
40,110
48,048

33,634
37,056
39,870
40,339
42,603

16,734
15,515
16,465
14,226
17,779

13,082
14,555
15,545
15,415
15,579

10,642
11,721
11,810
11,738
13,981

9,752
10,758
11,574
11,557
12,402

1,393
1,582
1,674
1,871
2,222

1,316
1,370
1,477
1,626
1,765

10,203
11,051
12,069
12,275
14,070

9,484
10,373
11,276
11,741
12,857

I960
1961
1962
1963
1964

49,793
49,048
56,191
63,591
70,670

46,073
48,124
51,360
56.825
63,470

17,657
16,029
19,694
22,126
24,046

16,419
16,552
17,447
19,254
21,369

14,525
14,551
15,701
17,920
20,821

13,613
14,235
14,935
16,369
18,666

2,215
2,092 ,
2,084 i
2,186
2,225

1,876
2,015
2,010
2,046
2,086

15,396
16,377
18,710
21,359
23,578

14,165
15,319
16,969
19,156
21,349

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

78,586
82,335
84,693
97, 053
102,800

69,957
76,120
81,306
88, 089
94,600

27,227
27,341
26,667
31,424
32, 500

23,543
25,404
26,499
28, 018
29,900

22,750
25,591
26,952
30, 593
32,800

20,518
23,178
25,535
28, 089
30,400

2,266
2,200
2,113
2,268
2,300

2,116
2,110
2,142
2,132
2,200

26,343
27,203
28,961
32,768
35,200

23,780
25,428
27,130
29,850
32,100

Extended

Repaid

Extended

Repaid

Seasonally adjusted
1968: Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr...
May..
JuneJuly..
AugSept..
Oct...
NovDec.

7,453
7,847
7,903
7,863
8,033
8,003

7,054
7,111
7,281
7,222
7,301
7,287

2,385
2,559
2,605
2,509
2,590
2,570

2,254
2,275
2,316
2,297
2,327
2,289

2,339
2,458
2,531
2,597
2,535
2,536

2,223
2,269
2,372
2,340
2,312
2,324

169
184
183
189
197
179

182
173
185
176
184
175

2,560
2,646
2,584
2,568
2,711
2,718

2,395
2,394
2,408
2,409
2,478
2,499

8,247
8,187
8,416
8,533
8,288
8,277

7,390
7,253
7,701
7,586
7,454
7,502

2,673
2,684
2,783
2,782
2,681
2,592

2,352
2,327
2,482
2,391
2,363
2,357

2,622
2,483
2,560
2,645
2,640
2,656

2,374
2,209
2,428
2,451
2,388
2,422

195
185
196
202
191
192

181
170
179
177
175
175

2,757
2,835
2,877
2,904
2,776
2,837

2,483
2,547
2,612
2,567
2,528
2,548

1969: Jan...
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May...
June..

8,371
8,414
8,381
8,720
8,680
8,705

7,730
7,616
7,735
7,960
7,834
7,910

2,661
2,716
2,730
2,772
2,757
2,725

2,467
2,468
2,501
2,519
2,488
2,460

2,654
2,598
2,625
2,763
2,767
2,869

2,442
2,352
2,461
2,569
2,507
2,602

179
201
198
219
209
218

173
172
180
185
183
183

2,877
2,899
2,828
2,966
2,947
2,893

2,648
2,624
2,593
2,687
2,656
2,665

July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec i_.

8,521
8,680
8,669
8,661
8,632
8,650

7,899
8,080
7,971
7,992
8,012
8,050

2,582
2,634
2,794
2,808
2,683
2,650

2,471
2,562
2,498
2,463
2,503
2,500

2,777
2,819
2,740
2,707
2,841
2,800

2,511
2,574
2,600
2,615
2,623
2,600

185
177
180
175
164
200

191
185
156
189
179
200

2,977
3,050
2,955
2,971
2,944
3,000

2,726
2,759
2,717
2,725
2,707
2,750

* Preliminary; December by Council of Economic Advisers.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted).




245

TABLE G-58.—Mortgage debt outstanding, by type of property and of financing, 1939-69
[Billions of dollars]
Yonfarm properties
r

Nonfarm properties by type of mortgage
Conventional2

FHA-VA underwritten
End of year
or quarter

All
properties

Farm
properties

Total

1- to 4family
houses

ComMulti- mercial
family properties i

1- to 4-family houses
Total
Total

FHA
insured

VA
guaranteed

Total

1- to 4family
houses

1939.

35.5

6.6

28.9

16.3

5.6

7.0

1.8

1.8

1.8

27.1

14.5

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944

36.5
37.6
36.7
35.3
34.7

6.5
6.4
6.0
5.4
4.9

30.0
31.2
30.8
29.9
29.7

17.4
18.4
18.2
17.8
17.9

5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.6

6.9
7.0
6.7
6.3
6.2

2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2

2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2

2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2

27.7
28.2
27.1
25.8
25.5

15.1
15.4
14.5
13.7
13.7

35.5
41.8
48.9
56.2
62.7

4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.6

30.8
36.9
43.9
50.9
57.1

18.6
23.0
28.2
33.3
37.6

5.7
6.1
6.6
7.5
8.6

6.4
7.7
9.1
10.2
10.8

4.3
6.3
9.8
13.6
18.1

4.3
6.1
9.3
12.5
15.0

4.1
3.7
3.8
5.3
6.9

0.2
2.4
5.5
7.2
8.1

26.5
30.6
34.1
37.3
39.0

14.3
16.9
18.9
20.8
22.6

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

72.8
82.3
91.4
101.3
113.7

6.1
6.7
7.2
7.7
8.2

66.7
75.6
84.2
93.6
105.4

45.2
51.7
58.5
66.1
75.7

10.1
11.5
12.3
12.9
13.5

11.5
12.5
13.4
14.5
16.3

22.1
26.6
29.3
32.1
36.2

18.9
22.9
25.4
28.1
32.1

8.6
9.7
10.8
12.0
12.8

10.3
13.2
14.6
16.1
19.3

44.6
49.0
54.9
61.5
69.2

26.3
28.8
33.1
38.0
43.6

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

129.9
144.5
156.5
171.8
190.8

9.0
9.8
10.4
11.1
12.1

120.9
134.6
146.1
160.7
178.7

88.2
99.0
107.6
117.7
130.9

14.3
14.9
15.3
16.8
18.7

18.3
20.7
23.2
26.1
29.2

42.9
47.8
51.6
55.2
59.2

38.9
43.9
47.2
50.1
53.8

14.3
15.5
16.5
19.7
23.8

24.6
28.4
30.7
30.4
30.0

78.0
86.8
94.5
105.5
119.4

49.3
55.1
60.4
67.6
77.0

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

206.8
226.2
248.6
274.3
300.1

12.8
13.9
15.2
16.8
18.9

194.0
212.3
233.4
257.4
281.2

141.3
153.0
166.5
182.2
197.6

20.3
22.9
25.8
29.0
33.6

32.4
36.4
41.1
46.2
50.0

62.3
65.5
69.4
73.4
77.2

56.4
59.1
62.2
65.9
69.2

26.7
29.5
32.3
35.0
38.3

29.7
29.6
29.9
30.9
30.9

131.7
146.9
164.0
184.0
204.0

84.8
93.9
104.3
116.3
128.3

1965
1966
1967 v
1968 v
1969 P

325.8
347.4
370.2
397.5
424.7

21.2
23.3
25.5
27.5
29.6

304.6
324.1
344.8
370.0
395.0

212.9
223.6
236.1
251.2
266.8

37.2
40.3
43.9
47.3
51.7

54.5
60.1
64.8
71.4
76.5

81.2
84.1
88.2
93.4

73.1
76.1
79.9
84.4

42.0
44.8
47.4
50.6

31.1
31.3
32.5
33.8

223.4
240.0
256.6
276.6

139.8
147.5
156.1
166.8

1966: 1
II
III—.
IV

331.9
338.7
343.6
347.4

21.8
22.5
23.0
23.3

310.2
316.2
320.6
324.1

216.2
219.6
221.9
223.6

38.2
39.1
39.7
40.3

55.8
57.5
59.0
60.1

82.1
82.7
83.4
84.1

74.1
74.7
75.4
76.1

43.0
43.7
44.4
44.8

31.1
31.0
31.0
31.3

228.1
233.5
237.2
240.0

142.1
145.0
146.5
147.5

1967:

350.5
356.2
363.3
370.2

23.7
24.3
24.9
25.5

326.8
331.9
338.3
344.8

224.9
227.8
232.0
236.1

41.0
41.9
42.8
43.9

60.9
62.2
63.5
64.8

84.5
85.3
86.4
88.2

76.4
77.2
78.3
79.9

45.2
45.7
46.6
47.4

31.2
31.5
31.7
32.5

242.3
246.6
251.9
256.6

148.4
150.6
153.7
156.1

375.8
382.9
389.8
397.5

26.0
26.7
27.2
27.5

349.8
356.1
362.6
370.0

239.1
243.2
247.0
251.2

44.6
45.3
46.2
47.3

66.1
67.6
69.3
71.4

89.4
90.7
92.0
93.4

81.0
82.1
83.2
84.4

48.1
48.7
49.6
50.6

32.9
33.4
33.6
33.8

260.4
265.4
270.6
276.6

158.1
161.1
163.8
166.8

403.7
411.7
418.5
424.7

28.1
28.8
29.3
29.6

375.7
382.9
389.2
395.0

254.8
259.5
263.4
266.8

48.3
49.4
50.6
51.7

72.6
74.0
75.2
76.5

94.5
96.6
98.5

85.3
87.1
88.9

51.4
52.2
53.4

33.9
34.9
35.5

281.2
286.3
290.7

169.6
172.3
174.6

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

..

..

\v—.
II *
>
111 p . .
IV P__.

1968: 1 r . —
\\v...
Ill p . .
IV P...
1969: 1 p . . . .
II p . . .
Ill p . .
IV p . . .

i Includes negligible amount of farm loans held by savings and loan associations.
> Derived figures.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, estimated and compiled from data supplied by various
Government and private organizations.




246

TABLE C-59.—Mortgage debt outstanding, by lender, 1939-69
[Billions of dollars]

Selected financial institutions

End of year or quarter

Total

Total

Savings
and
loan
associations

Mutual
savings
banks

Other lenders

Commercial
banks *

Life
insurance
companies

U.S.
agencies2

Individuals
and
others

1939

35.5

18.6

3.8

4.8

4.3

5.7

5.0

11.9

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944

36.5
37.6
36.7
35.3
34.7

19.5
20.7
20.7
20.2
20.2

4.1
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.8

i1.9

I 8
1 6
i 1.4
t1.3

4.6
4.9
4.7
4.5
4.4

6.0
6.4
6.7
6.7
6.7

4.9
4.7
4.3
3.6
3.0

12.0
12.2
11.7
11.5
11.5

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

35.5
41.8
48.9
56.2
62.7

21.0
26.0
31.8
37.8
42.9

5.4
7.1
8.9
10.3
11.6

1.2
I 4
4.9
5.8
6.7

4.8
7.2
9.4
10.9
11.6

6.6
7.2
8.7
10.8
12.9

2.4
2.0
1.8
1.9
2.4

12.1
13.8
15.3
16.5
17.4

72.8
82.3
91.4
101.3
113.7

51.7
59.5
66.9
75.1
85.7

13.7
15.6
18.4
22.0
26.1

8.3
9.9
11.4
12.9
15.0

13.7
14.7
15.9
16.9
18.6

16.1
19.3
21.3
23.3
26.0

2.7
3.4
4.0
4.4
4.6

18.4
19.4
20.5
21.8
23.4

129.9
144.5
156.5
171.8
190.8

99.3
111.2
119.7
131.5
145.5

31.4
35.7
40.0
45.6
53.1

17.5
19.7
21.2
23.3
25.0

21.0
22.7
23.3
25.5
28.1

29.4
33.0
35.2
37.1
39.2

5.2
6.0
7.4
7.8
10.0

25.4
27.3
29.3
32.5
35.4

1960
1961 - .
1962
1963
1964 . .

206.8
226.2
248.6
274.3
300.1

157.6
172.6
192.5
217.1
241.0

60 1
68.8
78.8
90.9
101.3

26.9
29.1
32.3
36.2
40.6

28.8
30.4
34.5
39.4
44.0

41.8
44.2
46.9
50.5
55.2

11.2
11.8
12.2
11.2
11.4

38 0
41.8
44.0
45.9
47.7

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

325.8
347.4
370.2
397.5
424.7

264.6
280.8
298.8
319.9
339.1

110.3
114.4
121 8
130.8
140.2

44.6
47.3
50.5
53.5
55.8

49.7
54.4
59.0
65.7
70.9

60.0
64.6
67 5
70.0
72.1

12.4
15.8
18 4
21.7
26.8

48.7
50.9
53.0
55.8
58.8

331.9
338.7
343.6
347.4

269.6
274.7
278.2
280.8

112.3
114.0
114.4
114.4

45.4
45.9
46.6
47.3

50.7
52.3
53.6
54.4

61.2
62.5
63 6
64.6

13.5
14.4
15.2
15.8

48.8
49.6
50.2
50.9

350.5
356.2
363.3
370.2

282.9
287.6
293.3
298.8

114.8
116.9
119.5
121.8

48.1
48.9
49.7
50.5

54.5
55.7
57.5
59.0

65.5
66.1
66.6
67.5

16.4
16.7
17.5
18.4

51.3
51 9
52.5
53.0

1968: 1 p _
II p
III p
IV p

375.8
382 9
389.8
397.5

302.6
308.1
313.5
319.9

123.3
125.9
128.3
130.8

51.2
51.8
52.5
53.5

60.1
62.0
63.8
65.7

68.0
68 4
68.9
70.0

19.6
20.6
21.1
21.7

53.5
54 2
55.1
55.8

1969: 1 p
II v
III v
IV p

403.7
411.7
418.5
424.7

324.7
331.0
335.5
339.1

133.0
136.2
138.6
140.2

54.2
54.8
55.4
55.8

67.1
69.1
70.2
70.9

70.4
70.9
71 3
72.1

22.6
23.4
24 9
26.8

56 4
57.2
58 1
58.8

... .
-.

. .

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

.

P
P
P

1966: 1

II
III
IV

1967* 1 p
II p
IN p
IV p

.

.

i

1
Includes loans held by nondeposit trust companies, but not bank trust departments.
2 Includes former FNMA and new GNMA, as well as FHA, VA, PHA, Farmers' Home Administration and in earlier years
RFC, HOLC, and FFMC. Also includes U.S.-sponsored agencies such as new FNMA and Federal Land Banks. Other U.S.
agencies (amounts small or current separate data not readily available) included with "individuals and others."
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, based on data from various Government and private organizations.




247

TABLE C-60.—Net public and private debt, 1929-68*
(Billions of dollars]

Public

Private
Individual and noncorporate

End of year

Total

Federal 2

Federal
financial
agencies 3

Nonfarm

State
and
local

Corporate

Total

Total

Farm*

Total

Mortgage

Commercial
Conand sumer
financial «

191.9

16.5

13.6

161.8

88.9

72.9

12.2

60.7

31.2

22.4

7.1

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934

192.3
182.9
175.0
168.5
171 6

16.5
18.5
21.3
24.3
30.4

14.7
16.0
16.6
16.3
15.9

161.1
148.4
137.1
127.9
125.3

89.3
83.5
80.0
76.9
75.5

71.8
64.9
57.1
51.0
49.8

11.8
11.1
10.1
9.1
8.9

60.0
53.8
47.0
41.9
40.9

32.0
30.9
29.0
26.3
25.5

21.6
17.6
14.0
11.7
11.2

6.4
5.3
4.0
3.9
4.2

1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

175.0
180.6
182.2
179.9
183.3

34.4
37.7
39.2
40.5
42.6

16.1
16.2
16.1
16.1
16.4

124.5
126.7
126.9
123.3
124.3

74.8
76.1
75.8
73.3
73.5

49.7
50.6
51.1
50.0
50.8

8.9
8.6
8.6
9.0
8.8

40.8
42.0
42.5
41.0
42.0

24.8
24.4
24.3
24.5
25.0

10.8
11.2
11.3
10.1
9.8

5.2
6.4
6.9
6.4
7.2

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944

189.8
211.4
258 6
313.2
370.6

44.8
56.3
101.7
154.4
211.9

16.4
16.1
15.4
14.5
13.9

128.6
139.0
141.5
144.3
144.8

75.6
83.4
91.6
95.5
94.1

53.0
55.6
49.9
48.8
50.7

9.1
9.3
9.0
8.2
7.7

43.9
46.3
40.9
40.5
42.9

26.1
27.1
26.8
26.1
26.0

9.5
10.0
8.1
9.5
11.8

8.3
9.2
6.0
4.9
5.1

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

405.9
396.6
415.7
431.3
445.8

252.5
229.5
221.7
215.3
217.6

0.7
.6
.7

13.4
13.7
15.0
17.0
19.1

140.0
153.4
178.3
198.4
208.4

85.3
93.5
108.9
117.8
118.0

54.7
59.9
69.4
80.6
90.4

7.3
7.6
8.6
10.8
12.0

47.4
52.3
60.7
69.7
78.4

27.0
31.8
37.2
42.4
47.1

14.7
12.1
11.9
12.9
13.9

5.7
8.4
11.6
14.4
17.4

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

486.2
519.2
550.2
581.6
605.9

217.4
216.9
221.5
226.8
229.1

.7
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.3

21.7
24.2
27.0
30.7
35.5

246.4
276.8
300.4
322.7
340.0

142.1
162.5
171.0
179.5
182.8

104.3
114.3
129.4
143.2
157.2

12.3
13.7
15.2
16.8
17.5

92.0
100.6
114.2
126.4
139.7

54.8
61.7
68.9
76.7
86.4

15.8
16.2
17.8
18.4
20.8

21.5
22.7
27.5
31.4
32.5

664.9
698.3
728.3
769.1
831.4

229.6
224.3
223.0
231.0
241.4

2.9
2.4
2.4
2.5
3.7

40.2
44.4
48.6
53.2
58.0

392.2
427.2
454.3
482.4
528.3

212.1
231.7
246.7
259.5
283.3

180.1
195.5
207.6
222.9
245.0

18.7
19.4
20.2
23.2
23.8

161.4
176.1
187.4
199.7
221.2

98.7
109.4
118.1
128.1
141.0

24.0
24.4
24.3
26.5
28.7

38.8
42.3
45.0
45.1
51.5

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

872.4
929.8
997.1
1,071.7
1,153.7

239.8
246.7
253.6
257.5
264.0

3.5
4.0
5.3
7.2
7.5

63.0
70.0
78.1
84.7
92.4

566.1
609.1
660.1
722.3
789.7

302.8
324.3
348.2
376.4
409.6

263.3
284.8
311.9
345.8
380.1

25.1
27.5
30.2
33.2
36.0

238.2
257.3
281.7
312.6
344.1

151.3
164.5
180.3
198.6
218.9

30.8
34.8
37.6
42.3
45.0

56.1
58.0
63.8
71.7
80.3

1965
1966
1967
1968

1,245.6
1,340.8
1,436.4
1,568.5

266.4
271.8
286.4
291.9

8.9
11.2
9.0
21.5

870.4
99.9
107.1
950.6
117.9 1,023.1
128.6 1,126.6

454.3
502.7
541.7
604.5

416.1
447.9
481.4
522.2

39.3
42.4
48.3
50.2

376.8
405.5
433.2
472.0

236.8
252.8
266.9
285.5

49.7
55.2
64.2
73.2

90.3
97.5
102.1
113.2

1929

1955.
1956
1957
1958
1959

...-•

i Net public and private debt is a comprehensive aggregate of the indebtedness of borrowers after eliminating certain
types of duplicating governmental and corporate debt.
> Net Federal Government and agency debt is the outstanding debt held by the public, as defined in the "Budget of the
United States Government, for the Fiscal Year ending June 30,1971." Figures shown here are subject to revision.
3 This comprises the debt of federally sponsored agencies, in which there is no longer any Federal proprietary interest.
The obligations of the Federal Land Banks are included here beginning in 1947; the debt of the Federal Home Loan Banks
is included beginning in 1951; and the debts of the Federal National Mortgage Association—Secondary Market Operations,
Federal Intermediate Credit Banks, and Banks for Cooperatives are included beginning with 1968.
* Farm mortgages and farm production loans. Farmers' financial and consumer debt is included in the nonfarm categories.
* Financial debt is debt owed to banks for purchasing or carrying securities, customers' debt to brokers, and debt owed
t o life insurance companies by policyholders.
Sources- Department of Commerce (Office of Business Economics), Treasury Department, Department of Agriculture,
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Federal Land Banks, and Federal
National Mortgage Association.




248

GOVERNMENT FINANCE
TABLE C-61.—Federal budget receipts and outlays, 1929-71
[Millions of dollars]
Fiscal year

Receipts

Administrative budget:
1929
.
1930
1931..
1932
1933
1934...
1935

Outlays

Surplus or
deficit ( - )

3,861
4,058

3,577
4,659
4,598
6,645
6,497

-462
-2,735
-2,602
-3,630
-2,791

3,997
4,956
5,588
4,979

1936
1937
1938
.
1939
Consolidated cash statement:
1940

734
738

3,116
1,924
1,997
3,015
3,706

....

3,127
3,320

8,422
7,733
6,765
8,841

-4,425
-2,777
-1,177
-3,862

6,879

9,589

-2,710

9,202
15,104
25,097
47,818
50,162

13,980
34,500
78,909
93,956
95,184

-4,778
-19,396
-53,812
-46,138
-45,022

43,537
43,531
45,357
41,576
40,940

61,738
36,931
36,493
40,570
43,147

-18,201
6,600
8,864
1,006
-2,207

53,390
68,011
71,495

45,797
67,962
76,769

7,593
49
-5,274

69,719
65,469

70,890
68, 509

-1,170
-3,041

74, 547
79,990
79,636
79,249
92,492

70,460
76,741
82,575
92,104
92,223

4,087
3,249
-2,939
-12,855
269

1961.
1962
1963
1964
1965

94,389
99,676
106, 560
112,662
116,833

97,795
106,813
111,311
118,584
118,430

-3,406
-7,137
-4,751
-5,922
-1,596

1966
1967....
1968
1969
19701

130,856
149, 552
153,671
187,792
199,386

134,652
158,254
178 833
184,556
197,885

-3,796
-8,702
- 2 5 161
3,236
1,501

202,103

200,771

1,331

1941..
1942..
1943
1944
1945

..

1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951..
1952
1953
Unified budget:
1954
1955 .

. .

..

1956
1957
1958
1959.
I960

. ...

..

.

.

1971 i

i Estimate.
Note.—Certain interfund transactions are excluded from receipts and outlays starting in 1932. For years prior to 1932 the
amounts of such transactions are not significant
Refunds of receipts are excluded from receipts and outlays starting in 1913; comparable data are not available for prior
years.
Source: Bureau of the Budget.




249

T A B L E G-62.—Federal budget receipts, outlays, financing, and debt,

1960-71

[Millions of dollars; fiscal years]
Actual
Description

1960

1962

1963

1964

94,389
96,597

99,676
104,462

106,560
111,456

112,662
118,039

116,833
117,181

2,151

-2,208

-4,786

-4,896

-5,377

-347

Loan account:
Loan disbursements.
Loan repayments

8,310
6,427

7,869
6,671

9,621
7,271

9,646
9,791

10,237
9,693

10,911
9,662

Net lending.

1,882

1,198

2,351

-145

545

1,249

92,492
92,223

94,389
97,795

99,676
106,813

106,560
111,311

112,662
118,584

116,833
118,430

269

-3,406

-7,137

-4,751

-5,922

-1,596

2,174
-2,443

1,427
1,979

9,769
-2,632

6,088
-1,337

3,092
2,830

4,061
-2,465

-269

3,406

7,137

4,751

5,922

1,596

290,862
237,177

292,895
238,604

303,291
248,373

310,807
254,461

316,763
257,553

323,154
261,614

92,492
40,741
21,494
11,248
2,667

94,389
41,338
20,954
12,679
2,902

99,676
45,571
20,523
12,835
3,337

106,560
47,588
21,579
14,746
4,112

112,662
48,697
23,493
16,959
4,045

116,833
48,792
25,461
17,359
3,819

768
11,676
1,606
1,105
1,187

857
11,860
1,896
982
919

875
12, 534
2,016
1,142
843

946
13,194
2,167
1,205
1,023

1,008
13,731
2,394
1,252
1,084

1,081
14,570
2,716
1,442
1,594

75,650
19,228

75,179
21,800

79,703
22,652

83,550
25,799

87,205
28,518

90,943
29,230

RECEIPTS, EXPENDITURES, AND NET LENDING:
Expenditure account:
Receipts
Expenditures (excludes net lending)...
Expenditure account
deficit ( - )

surplus

or

Total budget:
Receipts
Outlays (expenditures and net lending).
Budget surplus or deficit (—)
BUDGET FINANCING:
Net borrowing from the public or repayment of borrowing ( - )
Other means of financing
Total means of financing.

1961

92,492
90,341

1965

OUTSTANDING DEBT, END OF YEAR:
Gross Federal debt
Held by the public

BUDGET RECEIPTS.
Individual income taxes
Corporation income taxes
Employment taxes and contributions
Unem ployment insurance 2 _. _
Contributions for other insurance and
retirement
Excise taxes
Estate and gift taxes
Customs duties
Miscellaneous receipts3
MEMORANDUM:
Federal funds..
Trust f u n d s . . .
BUDGET OUTLAYS (EXPENDITURES AND
NET LENDING)
National defense
International affairs and finance
Space research and technology
Agriculture and rural development
Natural resources
Commerce and transportation
Community development and housing
Education and manpower
Health
I ncome security
Veterans benefits and services
Interest
General government
Allowances
Undistributed intragovernmental transactions

92,223
45,908
3,054
401
3,322
1,019
4,774
971
1,286
756
17,977
5,426
8,299
1,327

97,795
47,381
3,357
744
3,340
1,568
5,048
191
1,499
873
20,956
5,688
8,108
1,491

106,813
51,097
4,492
1,257
4,123
1,686
5,408
589
1,732
1,139
22,205
5,625
8,321
1,650

111,311
52,257
4,115
2,552
5,139
1,505
5,743
-880
1,732
1,393
23,854
5,520
9,215
1,810

118,584
53, 591
4,117
4,170
5,185
1,972
6,482
-185
2,028
1,737
24,833
5,681
9,810
2,040

118,430
49,578
4,340
5,091
4,807
2,063
7,364
288
2,533
1,730
25,453
5,722
10,357
2,210

-2,297

-2,449

-2,513

-2,644

-2,877

-3,109

MEMORANDUM:
Federal funds
Trust funds
Intragovernmental transactions.

74,865
19,743
-2,385

79,336
21,048
-2,589

86,594
22,898
-2,680

90,141
23,958
-2,788

95,761
25,884
- 3 , 061

94,807
26,962
-3,339

See footnotes at end of table.




250

TABLE G-62.—Federal budget receipts, outlays,financing,and debt, 1960-71—Continued
[Millions of dollars; fiscal years]
Actual

Description

Estimate

1966
RECEIPTS, EXPENDITURES, AND NET LENDING:
Expenditure account:
Receipts,
Expenditures (excluding net lending). _
Expenditure account surplus or
deficit (-)___..__-_

1967

1968

1969

1970

130,856
130,820

149,552
153,201

153,671
172,802

187,792
183,080

199,386
194,985

36

-3,649

-19,131

4,712

4,401

Loan account:
Loan disbursements.
Loan repayments

14,628
10,796

17,676
12,623

20,327
14,297

13,117
11,640

Net lending.

3,832

5,053

6,030

1,476

9,489
6,589
2,900

Total budget:
Receipts..
-_-_.__.
Outlays (expenditures and net lending).

130,856
134,652

149,552
158,254

187,792
184, 556

199,386
197,885

Budget surplus or deficit ( - ) — - . - .

—3,796

-8,702

153,671
178,833
-25,161

3,236

1, 501

23,100 -1,044
2,061
-2,192
25,161 1-3,236

-2,583
1,082
1-1,501

BUDGET FINANCING:
Net borrowing from the public or repayment of borrowing (—)._
Other means of financing
—.'___

Gross Federal debt
Held by the public

.

-

BUDGET RECEIPTS.
Individual income taxes
Corporation income taxes.
Employment taxes and contributions
Unemployment insurance 2
.
Contributions for other insurance and retirement
Excise taxes...
Estate and gift taxes
Customs duties
—
Miscellaneous receipts 3.
MEMORANDUM:
Federal fundsTrust funds. __
BUDGET OUTLAYS (EXPENDITURES AND NET
LENDING)
National defense
International affairs and finance
Space research and technology
Agriculture and rural development....
Natural resources.
.
Commerce and transportation
Community development and housing.
Education and manpower
..
Health......
Income security
Veterans benefits and services
Interest
General government
.
Allowances
Undistributed intragovernmental transactions
_
_
MEMORANDUM:
Federal funds.
...
Trust funds.._
._
Intragovernmental transactions.

2,838
5, 863

3,796

Total means of financing.
OUTSTANDING DEBT END OF YEAR:

3, 076
720

8,702

329,474
264,690

341,348
267, 529

369,769
290,629

367,144
279,483

374,734
278,483

130,856

149,552

153,671

61, 526
33,971
27,823
3,659
1,867
13,719
2,978
1,901
2,108

68,726
28,665
29,224
3,346
2,052
14,079
3,051
2,038
2,491

187,792
87,249
36,678
34,236
3,328
2,353
15,222
3,491
2,319
2,916

199,386

55,446
30,073
20,662
3,777
1,129
13,062
3,066
1,767
1,875
101,427
32,997

111,835
42,935

114,726
44,716

143,329
52,009

149,579
58,141

134,652
56,785
4,490
5,933
3,679
2,035
7,135^
2,644
4,523
2,543
28,751
5,920
11,285
2,292

158,254

178,833

184,556

70,081
4,547
5,423
4,376
1,860
7,554
2,616
6,135
6,721
30,881
6,897
12,588
2,510

80,517
4,619
4,721
5,943
1,702
8,047
4,076
7,012
9,672
33,835
6,882
13,744
2,561

81,240
3,785
4,247
6,221
2,129
7,873
1,961
6,825
11,696
37,399
7,640
15,791
2,866

197,885
79,432
4,113
3,886
6,343
2,485
9,436
3,046
7,538
13,265
43,832
8,681
17,821
3,620
475

-3,364

-3,936

-4,499

-5,117

-6,088

106,512
31,708
-3,568

126,779
36,693
-5,218

143,105
41,499
-5,771

148,819
43,284
-7,547

156,703
49,517
-8,335

92,200
37,000
38,914
3,340
2,551
15,940
3,500
2,260
3,681

1 Excludes changes due to reclassification and to conversion of mixed-ownership enterprises to private ownership. (See
footnote to Table 9 of the 1971 Budget Document.)
2 Includes Federal funds of $339 million in 1960.
3
Includes both Federal funds and trust funds.

Source: Bureau of the Budget




251

TABLE C-63.—Relation of the Federal Budget to the Federal sector of the national income and
product accounts, 1968-71
[Billions of dollars; fiscal years]
Actual

Receipts and expenditures
1968

Estimate
1969

1970

1971

RECEIPTS
Total receipts, budget-

153.7

199.4

202.1

2.1
1.3
1.7
-.2

2.4
1.4
-.9
-.4

2.6
1.4

160.9

192.7

201.8

205,4

178.8

184.6

197.9

200.8

-6.0
-1.6

-1.5
-1.0

-2.9
-1.8

-.7
-1.9

1.9
1.1
-2.1

2.1
1.3
.7

2.4
1.4
1.7
-.3
-.2

2.6
1.4
1.3

'.9

Federal sector, national income and product accounts,
receipts
—

187.8

1.9
1.1
4,3
-.1

Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing)
_
.
Other netting and grossing
...
Adjustment to accruals
.
Other

186.7

198.1

203.8

*

EXPENDITURES
Total outlays, budget. __
Loan account.
__..
Financial transactions in the expenditure accountGovernment contribution for employee retirement
(grossing)
.:
.
Other netting and grossing..
_.._
Defense timing adjustment..
Dollar expenditures to finance agricultural exports.
Other......

q

Federal sector, national income and product accounts,
expenditures

172.4

!

Note.—See Special Analysis A, "Budget of the United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June 30,1971," for
description of these categories.
Sources: Bureau of the Budget and Department of Commerce (Office of Business Economics).




252

T A B L E G—64.—Receipts and expenditures of the Federal Government sector of the national income
and product accounts, 1946—71
[Billions of dollars]
Receipts

Year or quarter

Fiscal year:
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951.
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
19701..:..
19711
Calendar year:
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
_
1953
1954._
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 v

1968: 1 . . .
II...
III..
IV__

Total

Expenditures

Indirect
Dar
rerCor- busisonal
fny
poness
lax
rate
tax
and profits and
nontax
nonId A
actax
fay
ceipts cruals accrualc
ais

Transfer
payments
Contributions
for
social
insurance

Total

55.5
29.5
30.9
39.6
42.4
44.6
66.0
75.8
74.2
67.3
69.8
76.0
83.1
90.9
91.3
98.0
106.4
111.4
116.9
118.5
131.9
154.6
172.4
186.7
198.1
203.8

Purchases
of
goods
and
services

To
persons

To
foreigners
(net)

40.1
13.0
13.2
19.3
19.0
25.1
46.6
56.1
53.2
43.9
45.2
47.7
50.7
54.7
52.7
55.5
60.9
63.4
65.7
64.4
71.7
85.3
95.3
101.1
100.8
96.6

8.3
8.7
8.1
11.3
8.1
8.5
9.3
10.5
12.1
12.8
14.4
17.8
19.8
20.6
23.6
25U
26.4
27.3
28.3
31.8
37.3
42.4
48.2
54.7
62.8

1.8
2.6
5.0
4.3
3.1
2.6
2.1
1.7
2.1
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2

38.4
42.7
43.6
40.0
42.0
60.8
65.1
69.3
65.8
67.2
75.8
80.7
77.9
85.4
94.8
95.3
104.2
110.2
115.5
120.5
132.8
147.3
160.9
192.7
201.8
205.4

16.9
18.8
20.0
16.3
16.5
23.2
28.8
31.4
30.3
29.7
33.6
36.7
36.3
38.2
42.5
43.6
47.3
49.6
50.7
51.3
57.6
64.4
71.3
90.5
95.5
93.6

8.3
10.6
11.2
11.0
11.9
21.5
19.3
19.7
17.3
18.7
21.1
20.6
17.8
21.5
22.3
20.3
22.9
23.5
25.7
27.7
31.0
31.1
34.3
40.0
38.8
38.4

7.4
7.9
7.9
8.0
8.2
9.5
9.7
10.7
10.4
10.0
10.8
11.7
11.6
11.9
13.2
13.3
14.2
15.0
15.6
16.9
15.7
16.1
17.2
18.6
19.1
20.5

5.8
5.5
4.6
4.8
5.5
6.6
7.3
7.5
7.8
8.7
10.2
11.7
12.2
13.8
16.7
18.1
19.9
22.1
23.5
24.6
28.5
35.8
38.0
43.6
48.3
52.9

39.1
43.2
43.3
38.9
49.9
64.0
67.2
70.0
63.8
72.1
77.6
81.6
78.7
89.7
96.5
98.3
106.4
114.5
115.0
124.7
142.5
151.1
176.3
201.6

17.2
19.6
19.0
16.1
18.1
26.1
31.0
32.2
29.0
31.4
35.2
37.4
36.8
39.9
43.6
44.7
48.6
51.5
48.6
53.8
61.7
67.5
79.5
95.6

8.6
10.7
11.8
9.8
17.0
21.5
18.5
19.5
17.0
20.6
20.6
20.2
18.0
22.5
21.7
21.8
22.7
24.6
26.4
29.3
32.1
30.6
38.3
40.4

7.8
7.8
8.0
8.0
8.9
9.4
10.3
10.9
9.7
10.7
11.2
11.8
11.5
12.5
13.5
13.6
14.6
15.3
16.1
16.5
15.7
16.3
18.0
18.8

5.5
35.6
17.2
5.1
29.8
12.5
4.5
34.9
16.5
4.9
41.3
20.1
5.9
40.8
18.4
7.1
57.8
37.7
7.4
71.0
51.8
7.4
77.0
57.0
8.1
69.7
47.4
9.3
68.1
44.1
10.6
71.9
45.6
12.2
79.6
49.5
12.4
88.9
53.6
14.8
91.0
53.7
17.7
93.0
53.5
18.2 102.1
57.4
20.5 110.3
63.4
23.1 113.9
64.2
23.8 118.1
65.2
25.1 123.5
66.9
33.0 142.8
77.8
36.7 163.8
90.7
40.5 181.5
99.5
46.9 191.9 102.0
Seasonally adjusted

165.7
170.8
181.4
187.3

72.1
74.7
83.7
87.4
93.8
96.9
95.0
96 6

37.0
38.1
38.4
39.8
40.7
41.0
39.8

17.4
17.9
18.3
18.5
18.5
18.6
19.1
18.9

39.3
40.1
40.9
41.7
45.6
46.4
47.5
48.1

1969: l . _ . _ 198.6
II...
202.8
III..
201.3
IV v_

174.1
180.3
184.2
187.4
188.5
189.3
193.6
196.2

96.3
99.0
100.9
101.9
101.6
100.6
103.2
102.7

2.2
9.2
8.8
1.9
7.6
3.8
8.7
5.1
10.8
3.6
8.5
3.1
8.8
2.1
9.5
2.0
11.5
1.8
12.4
2.0
13.4
1.9
15.7
1.8
19.5
1.8
20.1
1.8
21.5
1.9
24.9
2.1
25.5
2.2
27.0
2.2
27.8
2.2
30.3
2.2
33.4
2.3
40.0
2.2
45.7
2.1
50.4
1.9
annual rates
43.3
45.5
46.5
47.6
49.1
50.0
50.9
51.6

1.8
2.0
2.3
2.4
1.7
2.1
1.8
2.0

Subsidies
less
current
surplus
of
government
enterprises

Grantsin-aid
to State
and
local
governments

Net
interest
paid

0.9
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.7
4.7
6.2
6.8
6.9
7.6
8.4
9.8
10.9
12.7
14.8
17.6
18.9
22.4
24.8

3.7
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.8
4.8
5.0
4.9
5.1
5.5
5.7
5.9
7.0
6.8
6.8
7.5
8.1
8.5
9.0
9.9
10.8
12.3
13.6
13.3

2.1
.7
.5
.8
1.0
1.3
1.1
.9
1.0
1.3
1.7
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.3
3.2
3.8
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.5
5.1
4.1
4.1
4.5
4.1

1.1
1.7
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.3
4.2
5.6
6.8
6.5
7.2
8.0
9.1
10.4
11.1
14.4
15.9
18.3
19.9

4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.9
5.0
4.9
5.3
5.7
5.6
6.4
7.1
6.6
7.2
7.7
8.3
8.7
9.5
10.3
11.6
13.0

1.6
.6
.7
.8
1.2
1.3
1.0
.8
1.1
1.5
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.5
3.8
4.0
3.6
4.2
4.3
5.4
4.7
4.3
4.6

17.7
18.2
18.4
19.0
19.0
19.3
19.8
21.4

11.0
11.4
11.7
12.2
12.5
12.9
13.1
13. b

4.0
4.1
4.6
4.4
4.6
4.4
4.6
4.9

i Estimates.
Note.—Includes the transactions of the trust accounts and excludes certain financial transactions. Corporate profits
taxes are included in receipts on an accrual basis; purchases of goods and services from business are timed with delivery;
and CCC guaranteed price-support crop loans are counted as expenditures when the loans are made, not when CCC redeems them.
Receipts for 1969 reflect repeal of investment tax credit.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Office of Business Economics) and Bureau of the Budget.




253

TABLE G-65.—Public debt securities by kind of obligation, 1946-69
[Billions of dollars]

interest-bearing public debt

Other

Matured
public
debt
and
debt
bearing no
interest

49.8
52.1
55.1
56.7

67
7.4
6.3
9.3

1 5
2.7
2.2
2.1

33.7
35.9
39 1
41.2
42.6
43.9
45 6
45.8
44.8
43.5

58.0
57.6
57.9
57.7
57.7
57.9
56 3
52.5
51.2
48.2

10.1
20.9
19 6
19 3
17.7
12.7
11 9
10.4
9.2
7.8

2.4
2.3
21
23
3.0
3.0
24
20
2.1
3.1

24.2
25.4
20.1
24.0
23.6
25.6
25.4
25.1
24.8
24.4

44.3
43.5
43.4
43.7
46.1
46.3
52.0
57.2
59.1
71.0

47.2
47.5
47.5
48.8
49.7
50.3
50.8
51.7
52.3
52.2

0.5
.7
1.3
1.7
2.4
1.5
3.1
4.3
3.8

6 3
5.3
4.6
3.8
3.6
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
3.4

34
3.5
4.3
4.1
4.4
4.4
4.3
3.J
2.J
2.(

97.0
92.0
92.0
91.9
97.8
95.2

25.1
25.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
25.0

55.9
57.2
56.7
57.0
59.2
59.5

51.7
51.7
51.8
51.8
51.9
51.9

3.2
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.7

2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6

3 4
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.2

110.8
106.1
106.5
116.0
104.9
108.6

95.2
102.1
102 1
95.7
105.9
103.4

24 9
24.9
24 9
24.9
24.8
24.8

58.9
60.1
59 7
58.8
59.0
59.1

52.0
52.0
52 1
52.2
52.3
52.3

3.5
3.3
37
3.8
4.4
4.3

2.6
2.6
2 6
2.6
2.6
2.6

3.1
3.1
3 2
3.1
3.(
2.S

359.4
358.8
359.5
358 5
360.1
353.7

110.4
100.3
103.3
101.2
111.9
103.9

103.4
111.5
109.2
109.1
97.6
97.6

24.8
24.7
24.7
24 7
24.6
24.6

59.8
60.9
61.1
62.3
64.9
66.8

52.3
52.3
52.3
52.2
52.2
52.2

4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.1

2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5

l.J
2.(
l.J
l.J
l.J
2.(

357.0
360.2
360.7
364.4
368.1
368.2

107.4
112.6
112.6
109.6
120.1
118.1

97.6
94.1
94.1
101.0
93.3
93.3

24.6
24.5
24.5
24.5
24.4
24.4

66.8
68.4
68.9
68.1
69.3
71.0

52.2
52.1
52.1
52.1
52.1
52.2

4.0
3.8
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.8

2.6
2.7
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.4

l.J
l.J
l.J
2.(
l.J
2.(

Total
public
debt
securities

End of year or month

Marketable public issues
by maturity class

10
years
and
over

Nonmarketable public issues

Special
issues1

U.S.
savings
bonds 2

60.1
60.0
57.7
53.9

24.6
29.0
31.7
33.9

50.5
56.7
62.2
50.4
64.7
68.6
58.9
56.9
71.0
83.7

52.5
38.8
28 7
30.3
30.2
32.9
32.9
32.0
32.0
24.6

75.3
85.9
87.3
89.4
88.5
93.4
105.2
104.4
108.6
118.1

89.5
84.7
95.6
94.2
100.4
95.6
87.5
97.0
103.4
93.3

346.3
351.6
349 5
347.0
352.3
347.6

107.2
116.3
114.6
111.8
109.0
106.4

351 1
354.4
354 7
357.2
356.9
358.0

1969' Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

Within
1 year

1 to 10
years

259.1
256.9
252.8
257.1

54.8
49.6
44.6
49.4

61.7
56.1
55.1
51.8

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954..
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

256.7
259.4
267.4
275.2
278.7
280.8
276.6
274.9
282.9
290.8

49.4
47.1
57.7
73.9
62.8
61.7
68.6
75.3
72.6
79.9

1960
1961
1962
1963.
1964
1965
1966 - 1967
1968
1969

290.2
296.2
303.5
309.3
317.9
320.9
329.3
344.7
358.0
368.2

1946
1947
1948
1949

.

- -

_.

1968' Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

-

_

- -

.--

Foreign
and
international

1 Issued to U.S. Government accounts. These accounts also held $18.4 billion of public marketable and nonmarketable issues on December 31,1969.
2 Includes sales of U.S. savings notes beginning May 1967.
Source: Treasury Department.




254

TABLE C-66.—Estimated ownership of public debt securities, 7939-69
[Par values,1 billions of dollars]
Total public debt securities 2
Held by private investors
End of year or
month
Total

1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944 - —
1945
1946
1947 .
.
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954.
.. .
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960 .
1961...
1962
1963
1964 . - _
1965
1966
1967
1968
.. . .
1969
.1968: J a n . . . . . . . .

Feb
Mar...
Apr

May

June..
July...
Aug...
Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec
1969: J a n . . . .

Feb

Mar

Apr

May
June
July.
Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec

....

41.9
45.0
57.9
108.2
165.9
230.6
278.1
259.1
256.9
252.8
257.1
256.7
259.4
267.4
275.2
278.7
280.8
276.6
274.9
282.9
290.8
290.2
296.2
303.5
309.3
317.9
320.9
329.3
344 7
358.0
368.2
346.3
351.6
349.5
347.0
352.3
347.6
351.1
354.4
354.7
357.2
356.9
358.0
359.4
358.8
359.5
358.5
360.1
353.7
357.0
360.2
360.7
364.4
368.1
368.2

Held
Held
by
by
Govern- Federal
ment
Reserve
acbanks
counts

6.1
6.7
8.5
10.5
14.5
19.0
23 9
27.4
30 8
33.7
35.9
36.0
39 3
42.9
45.4
46 7
49.0
51.2
52.8
52.1
51.4
52.8
52.5
53.2
55.3
58.4
59.7
65.8
73 1
76.6
89.0
71.8
73.4
72.9
73.1
75.7
76.1
75.6
76.9
76.5
76.2
76.6
76.6
77.3
78.7
79.0
79.8
82.7
84.8
85.0
86.6
86.9
86.1
87.0
89.0

2.5
2.2
2.3
6.2
11.5
18.8
24.3
23.3
22.6
23.3
18.9
20.8
23 8
24.7
25.9
24 9
24.8
24.9
24 2
26.3
26.6
27.4
28 9
30.8
33.6
37.0
40 8
44.3
49 1
52 9
57.2
49.1
49.0
49.7
50.5
50.6
52.2
52.4
53.0
53.3
53.3
53.4
52.9
52.1
52.3
52.4
53.1
53.8
54.1
54.1
54.9
54.1
55.5
57.3
57.2

Total

33.4
36.2
47.1
91.5
139.8
192.8
230.0
208.3
203.6
195.8
202.4
199.9
196.3
199.8
203.8
207 1
207.0
200.5
197.9
204.5
212.7
210.0
214.8
219.5
220.5
222.5
220.5
219.2
222 4
228 5
222.0
225.3
229.2
226.9
223.4
226.0
219.2
223.1
224.5
224.9
227.7
226.9
228.5
230.0
227.8
228.1
225.6
223.6
214.8
217.9
218.6
219.6
222.7
223.8
222.0

Mutual
savings
State
banks
ComOther
and
mercial and in- corpolocal
banks 3 surance rations* governcomments 5
panies
12.7
13.7
17.1
38.2
57.3
76.7
90.8
74.5
68.7
62.4
66.8
61.8
61.5
63.4
63.7
69.1
62.0
59.5
59.5
67.5
60.3
62.1
67.2
67.1
64.2
63.9
60.7
57.4
63.8
65.5
56.1
62.8
63.7
62.0
59.8
60.8
59.8
61.2
62.1
63.5
65.3
63.9
65.5
64.2
60.8
60 6
58.6
56.4
54.9
56.0
54.7
54.4
55.7
56.4
56.1

8.4
9.2
11.0
15.4
20.8
28.0
34.7
36.7
35.9
32.7
31.5
29.6
26.2
25.5
25.1
24.1
23.1
21.2
20.1
19.8
19.4
18.0
17.4
17.5
16.8
16.5
15.6
14.1
12.7
11.6
10.1
12.5
12.5
12.6
12.3
12.4
12.0
12.0
11.9
11.9
11.7
11.6
11.6
11.5
11.4
11.3
11.1
11.6
11.0
10.6
10.4
10.2
10.1
10.2
10.1

2.0
2.0
4.0
10.1
16.4
21.4
22.2
15.3
14 1
14.8
16.8
19.7
20.7
19.9
21.5
19 1
23.2
18.7
17.7
18.1
21.4
18.7
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.2
15.8
14.9
12 2
14.6
15.8
13.4
14.8
14.1
13.6
15.6
13.0
14.3
14.5
12.9
14.0
14.8
14.6
16.8
17.8
17.6
17.0
17.4
15.1
15.8
16.8
15.2
16.4
16.8
15.8

Miscellaneous
Individuals 6 investors?

0.4
.5
.7
1.0
2.1
4.3
6.5
6.3
7.3
7.9
8.1
8.8
9.6
11.1
12.7
14.4
15.4
16.3
16.6
16.5
18.0

9.4
10.0
13.0
23.3
37.2
53.1
64.0
64.1
65.7
65.5
66.3
66.3
64.6
65.2
64.8
63.5
65.0
65.9
64.9
63.7
69.4

18.7
19 0
20.1
21.1
21.1
22 9
24.9
25 1
27 1
27.1
25 6
26.4
27 1
26.9
26.8
26.6
26.7
26.9
26.7
26.8
26.7
27 1
27.8
28.4
28 1
28.7
28.1
27.3
27.5
27.3
27.6
27.0
27.3
27.1

66.1
65.9
66.0
68.2
69.8
72.1
74.6
74.0
75.3
79.4
74.5
75.2
75.2
75.2
75.4
74.2
74.7
74.9
75.2
75.0
74.7
75.3
75.9
76.1
76.4
76.6
76.8
76.4
76.9
77.2
77.8
78.5
78.7
79.4

0.5
.8
1.3
3.5
6.0
9.3
11.8
11.4
11.9
12.5
12.9
13.6
13.7
14.7
16.1
16.9
18.3
18.9
19.1
18.9
24.3
26.5
26.9
30.1
31.5
33. t
33.4
33.3
34.7
34.4
33.5
36.5
36.6
35.9
35.6
34.9
33.7
34.2
34.2
34.7
34.8
35.2
34. ^
33.7
33.1
33. S
33.5
33.2
30.2
31. C
32.3
34.35. C
34.2
33.1

1 United States savings bonds, series A-F and J, and U.S. savings notes are included at current redemption value.
2
Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation.
3 Includes commercial banks, trust companies, and stock savings banks in the United States and Territories and island
possessions; figures exclude securities held in trust departments. Since the estimates in this table are on the basis of par
values and include holdings of banks in United States Territories and possessions, they do not agree with the estimates
in 4Table C-51, which are based on book values and relate only to banks within the United States.
Exclusive of banks and insurance companies.
8
Includes trust, sinking, and investment funds of State and local governments and their agencies, and of Territories
and possessions.
«Includes partnerships and personal trust accounts.
7
Includes savings and loan associations, nonprofit institutions, corporate pension trust funds, dealers and brokers,
Federal oriented agencies not included in Government accounts, and investments of foreign balances and international
accounts in this country. Beginning with December 1946, the international accounts include investments by the International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the International Monetary Fund, the Internationa} Development Association,
the Inter-American Development Bank, and various United Nations' funds, in special non-interest-bearing notes and
bonds issued by the U.S. Government.
Source: Treasury Department.




255

TABLE C-67.—Average length and maturity distribution of marketable interest-bearing
public debt, 1946-69
Maturity class
End of year or month

Amount
outstanding

Within
1 year

1 to 5
years

5 to 10
years

10 to 20
years

Average length
20 years
and over

Millions of dollars
Fiscal year:
1946—1947....
1948....
1949....

Years

189.606
168,702
160,346
155,147

61,974
51,211
48,742
48,130

24,763
21,851
21,630
32,562

41,807
35,562
32,264
16,746

17,461
18,597
16,229
22,821

43,599
41,481
41,481
34,888

1950..
1951..
1952..
19531954-

155,310
137,917
140,407
147,335
150,354

42,338
43,908
46,367
65,270
62,734

51,292
46,526
47,814
36,161
29,866

7,792
8,707
13,933
15,651
27,515

28,035
29,979
25,700
28,662
28,634

25,853
8,797
6,594
1,592
1,606

1955..
195619571958..
1959-

155,206
154,953
155,705
166,675
178,027

49,703
58,714
71,952
67,782
72,958

39,107
34,401
40,669
42,557
58,304

34,253
28,908
12,328
21,476
17,052

28,613
28,578
26,407
27,652
21,625

3,530
4,351
4,349
7,208
8,088

19601961..
1962..
19631964..

183,845
187,148
196,072
203,508
206,489

70,467
81,120
88,442
85,294
81,424

72,844
58,400
57,041
58,026
65,453

20,246
26,435
26,049
37,385
34,929

12,630
10,233
9,319
8,360
8,355

7,658
10,960
15,221
14,444
16,328

1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969-

208,695
209,127
210,672
226,592
226,107

87,637
89,136
89,648
106,407
103,910

56,198
60,933
71,424
64,470
62,770

39,169
33,596
24,378
30,754
34,837

8,449
8,439
8,425
8,407
8,374

17,241
17,023
16,797
16,553
16,217

1968: Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr...
May..
June..

229,285
233,273
231,651
228,718
231,761
226,592

107,199
116,253
114,646
111,783
109,012
106,407

78,157
67,967
67,969
67,922
67,017
64,470

18,859
24,005
24,006
24,006
30,752
30,754

8,416
8,414
8,413
8,411
8,409
8,407

16,654
16,635
16,617
16,596
16,571
16,553

230,977
233,167
233,556
236,651
235,653
236,812

110,824
106,121
106,534
116,040
104,938
108,611

64,469
64,996
64,997
58,606
70,751
68,260

30,754
37,143
37,143
37,142
35,130
35,130

8,406
8,402
8,401
8,400
8,398
8,396

16,525
16,504
16,482
16,464
16,435
16,415

1969: Jan...
Feb...
Mar..
Apr...
May_.
June..

238,543
236,535
237,272
234,968
234,097
226,107

110,377
100,282
103,342
101,159
111,855
103,910

68,260
75,778
73,494
73,407
62,769
62,770

35,129
35,727
35,726
35,726
34,837
34,837

8,395
8,394
8,390
8,386
8,379
8,374

16,382
16,354
16,320
16,291
16,257
16,217

July..
Aug..

229,581
231,230
231,203
235,029
237,919
235,863

107,416
112,618
112,616
109,550
120,144
118,124

62,763
69,519
69,522
74,762
73,305
73,302

34,837
24,553
24,553
26,247
20,026
20,026

8,372
8,370
8,367
8,363
8,360
8,358

16,194
16,170
16,145
16,107
16,083
16,054

July....
Aug
Sept
Oct.
Nov....
Dec

Nov..
Dec-

Note.—All issues classified to final maturity except partially tax-exempt bonds, which were classified to earliest call
date (the last of these bonds were called on August 14,1962, for redemption on December 15,1962).
Source: Treasury Department.




256

T A B L E C-68.—Receipts and expenditures of the government sector of the national income and product
accounts, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars]

Total government

Surplus or
deficit

Calendar year or quarter

Surplus or
deficit

Receipts

Expenditures

11.3

10.3

1.0

3.8

2.6

10.8
9.5
8.9
9.3
10.5
11.4
12.9
15.4
15.0
15.4

11.1
12.4
10 6
10.7
12.9
13.4
16.1
15.0
16.8
17.6

-.3
-2.9
-1 8
-1.4
-2.4
-2.0
-3.1
.3
-1.8
-2.2

3.0
2.0
1 7
2.7
3.5
4.0
5.0
7.0
6.5
6.7

2.8
4.2
3.2
4.0
6.4
6.5
8.7
7.4
8.6
8.9

17.7
25.0
32.6
49.2
51.2
53.2
50.9
56.8
58.9
56.0

18.4
28.8
64.0
93.3
103.0
92.7
45.5
42.4
50.3
59.1

8 6
15.4
22.9
39 3
41.0
42.5
39.1
43 2
43.3
38.9

10.0
20.5
56.1
85.8
95.5
84.6
35.6
29.8
34.9
41.3

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959..

68.7
84.8
89.8
94.3
89.7
100 4
109.0
115.6
114.7
128.9

60.8
79.0
93.7
101.2
96.7
97.6
104.1
114.9
127.2
131.0

49 9
64.0
67.2
70.0
63.8
72 1
77.6
81.6
78.7
89.7

I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969*

139.8
144 6
168 8
174'. 1
189.1
213 3
228.4
264.2
302.0

136.1
149.0
159.9
166 9
175.4
186.9
212.3
242.9
270.8
293.0

— 7
-3.8
-31.4
-44.1
-51.8
-39.5
5.4
14 4
8.5
-3.2
7.8
5.8
-3.8
-6.9
-7.0
2.7
4.9
.7
-12.5
-2.1
3.7
-4.3
-2.9
18
—1.4
2.2
1.1
-14.5
-6.7
9.0

222.0
224.4
230.1
237.0

236.1
240.4
244.8
250.4

-14.1
-16.0
-14.6
-13.4

147.5
148.3
152.0
156.4

159.5
161.4
165.3
168.8

248.5
257.3
271.1
279.7

260.0
268.1
274.5
280.6

-11.5
-10.8
-3.5
-.9

165.7
170.8
181.4
187.3

294.1
302.0
303.4

285.9
290.6
296.0
299.7

8.3
11.4
7.4

198.6
202.8
201.3

1929
1930
1931 . .
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

.

. . . . . .
.

.

.

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

. . .

. . .

157.0

-

-

State and local
government

Federal Government *

national
income
and
product accounts

Receipts

96.5
98 3
106.4
114 5
115.0
124.7
142.5
151.1
176.3
201.6

Expenditures

Surplus or
deficit
Receipts

Expenditures

1.2

7.6

7.8

-0.2

.3
-2.1
—1.5
-1.3
-2.9
-2.6
-3.6

8.4
8.5
7 6
7.2
8.1
8.6
8.1
8.4
9.0
9.6

-.6
-.8
— 3

—2.1
-2.2

7.8
7.7
7.3
7.2
8.6
9.1
8.6
9.1
9.3
9.6

—1.3
-5.1
-33.1
—46.6
-54.5
-42.1
3.5
13.4
8.4
-2.4

10.0
10.4
10.6
10.9
11.1
11.6
12.9
15.3
17.6
19.3

9 3
9.1
8.8
8 4
8.5
9.0
11.0
14 3
17.4
20.0

40.8
9.1
57.8
6.2
71.0
-3.8
77.0
-7.0
69.7
-5.9
68.1
4.0
71.9
5.7
79.6
2.1
88.9 . - 1 0 . 2
91.0
-1.2

21.1
23.3
25.2
27.2
28.8
31.4
34.7
38.2
41.6
46.0

22.3
23.7
25.3
27.0
29.9
32.7
35.6
39.5
44.0
46.8

49.9
53.6
58.6
63 4
69.5
75.5
85.2
93.2
106.2
120.2

49.6
54.1
57.6
62 2
67 8
74.5
83 9
95.0
107.6
121.0

-12.0
—13.2
-13.4
-12.3

89.6
90.9
94.4
97.9

91.7
93.6
95.6
99.0

-2.1
—2.8
-1.3
-1.0

174.1
180.3
184.2
187.4

-8.4
-9.5
-2.8
-.1

100.5
104.7
108.0
111.4

103.6
106.0
108.7
112.2

—3.1
-1.3

188.5
189.3
193.6
196.2

10.1
13.5
7.7

114.5
118.5
121.9

116.3
120.5
122.2
124.9

-1.8
-2.1
-.3

93.0
102.1
110.3
113.9
118.1
123.5
142.8
163.8
181.5
191.9

national
income
and
product accounts

3.5
—3.8
—3.8

7

—3.0

1.2

— 2
»
-12.7
—5.2

9.7

national
income
and
product accounts

*E

:6
.7

1.3
1.8
2.5
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.0
-.7
—1.2

-1.1
—1.3
—1.4
-2.3
.2

—.5
.9
1 2
1 7

1.0
1.3
—1.8
—1.5

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967:1

II
III
IV

1968:1

.

Ill
IV
1969:1
II

Ill
IV*

-

-'.B

iSee Note, Table C-64.
2 Surplus of $32 million.
3 Deficit of $41 million.
Note.—Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments are reflected in Federal expenditures and State and local
receipts and expenditures. Total government receipts and expenditures have been adjusted to eliminate this duplication.
Federal receipts for 1969 reflect repeal of investment tax credit.

Digitized Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
for FRASER
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
257
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

T A B L E G-69.—Receipts and expenditures of the State and local government sector of the national
income and product accounts, 1946-69
[Billions of dollars; calendar years]
Receipts

Year or
quarter

Expenditures

Indirect ContriPerCorsonal porate busi- butions Fedness
tax
for
eral
tax
Total
and profits and
social grantstax
nontax accruals nontax insur- in-aid
receipts
accruals ance

Total

Less:
Pur- TransCurrent
chases fer
surplus
of
payNet
govgoods ments interest ofernand
to
paid
ment
servperenterices
sons
prises

Surplus
or
deficit
national
income
and
product accounts

1946
1947
1948___
1949

12.9
15.3
17.6
19.3

1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4

0.5
.6
.7
.6

9.3
10.6
12.1
13.3

0.5
.6
.7
.8

1.1
1.7
2.0
2.2

11.0
14.3
17.4
20.0

9.8
12.6
15.0
17.7

1.7
2.3
2.9
2.9

0.3
.3
.3
.3

0.7
.8
.8
.9

1.9
1.0
.1
-.7

1950_
1951
1952
1953
1954

21.1
23.3
25.2
27.2
28.8

2.6
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.7

.8
.9
.8
.8
.8

14.5
15.8
17.3
18.7
19.7

1.0
1.3
1.5

2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9

22.3
23.7
25.3
27.0
29.9

19.5
21.5
22.9
24.6
27.4

3.5
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.4

.3
3
.3
.3
.4

.9
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.4

-1.2
—4

1955
1956
1957 1958
1959

31.4
34.7
38.2
41.6
46.0

4.1
4.7
5.2
5.6
6.3

1.0

n
n
0

1.2

21.4
23.6
25.5
27.0
28.9

1.8
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.7

3.1
3.3
4.2
5.6
6.8

32.7
35.6
39.5
44.0
46.8

30.1
33.0
36.6
40.6
43.3

3.7
3.8
4.2
4.6
4.8

.5
5
.5
.6
.7

1.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.0

—1.3
—9
—1.4
—2.3

1960
1961
1962-.
1963 . .
1964

49.9
53.6
58.6
63.4
69.5

7.3
7.7
8.7
9.4
10.8

11 4
4
7
q

31.7
34.1
36.9
39.4
42.3

3.0
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.1

6.5
7.2
8.0
9.1
10.4

49.6
54.1
57.6
62.2
67.8

46.1
50.2
53.7
58.2
63.5

5.1
5.5
5.7
6.0
6.5

7
.8
.8
.8
.7

2.2
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.9

2
—.5
.9
1.2

75.5
85.2
93.2
106.2
120.2

11.8
13.7
15.4
18.4
21.9

2.1
2.2
2.4
30
3.1

45.9
49.9
53.8
59.9
67.8

4.5
5.0
5.7
6.5
7.5

11.1
14.4
15.9
18.3
19.9

74.5
83.9
95.0
107.6
121.0

70.1
79.0
89.3
100.7
112.7

6.9
7.7
8.8
10.0
11.4

.5
.3
.2
.3
.4

3.0
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.5

1.0
1.3
-1.8
—1.5
y

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

T>

-1.1

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967' 1
II
III
IV

89.6
90.9
94.4
97.9

14.7
15.2
15.7
16.1

2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5

52.0
53.0
54.3
55.9

5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0

15.1
14.7
16.2
17.4

91.7
93.6
95.6
99.0

86.4
88.1
90.0
92.9

8.4
8.6
8.9
9.3

0.2
.1
.1

3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3

-2.1
-2.8
-1.3
-1.0

1968: 1
II
III
IV

100.5
104.7
108.0
111.4

17.2
18.0
18.9
19.5

2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1

56.5
59.2
61.1
62.9

6.2
6.4
6.6
6.9

17.7
18.2
18.4
19.0

103.6
106.0
108.7
112.2

97.1
99.4
101.7
104.8

9.7
9.8
10.2
10.5

.2
.3
.3
.4

3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5

-3.1
-1.3
-.7
-.8

1969: 1
II
III
IV p

114.5
118.5
121.9

20.5
21.5
22.5
23.3

3.1
3.1
3.0

64.8
67.1
68.9
70.4

7.1
7.4
7.7
8.0

19.0
19.3
19.8
21.4

116.3
120.5
122.2
124.9

108.5
112.3
113.8
116.2

11.0
11.3
11.6
11.9

.4
.4
.4
.4

3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6

-1.8
-2.1
-.3

* Deficit of $41 million.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




258

TABLE G—70.—State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected fiscal years, 1927—68
[Millions of dollars]
General revenues by source2
Fiscal year *
Total

Property
taxes

Sales
and
gross
receipts
taxes

Individual
income
taxes

Corporation
net
income
taxes

General expenditures by function 2

Revenue
All
from other
Federal reveGovern- nue 3
ment

Total

Education

Highways

Public
All
wel- other*
fare

1927

7,271

4,730

470

70

92

116

1,793

7,210

2,235

1,809

151

3,015

1932
1934.
1936
1938

7,267
7,678
8,395
9,228

4,487
4,076
4,093
4,440

752
1,008
1,484
1,794

74
80
153
218

79
49
113
165

232
1,016
948
800

1,643
1,449
1,604
1,811

7,765
7,181
7,644
8,757

2,311
1,831
2,177
2,491

,741
,509
,425
,650

444
889
827
1,069

3,269
2,952
3,215
3,547

1940........
1942
1944
1946
1948

9,609
10,418
10,908
12,356
17,250

4,430
4,537
4,604
4,986
6,126

1,982
2,351
2,289
2,986
4,442

224
276
342
422
543

156
272
451
447
592

945
858
954
855
1,861

1,872 9,229
2,123 9,190
2,269 8,863
2,661 11,028
3,685 17,684

2,638
2,586
2,793
3,356
5,379

,573
,490
1,200
1,672
3,036

1,156
1,225
1,133
1,409
2,099

3,862
3,889
3,737
4,591
7,170

1950
1952
1953
1954

20,911
25,181
27,307
29,012

7,349
8,652
9,375
9,967

5,154
6,357
6,927
7,276

788
998
1,065
1,127

593
846
817
778

2,486
2,566
2,870
2,966

4,541
5,763
6,252
6,897

22,787 7,177
26,098 8,318
27,910 9,390
30,701 10, 557

3,803
4,650
4,987
5,527

2,940 8,867
2,788 10,342
2,914 10,619
3,060 11,557

...

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

31,073
34,667
38,164
41,219
45,306

10,735 7,643
11,749 8,691
12,864 9,467
14,047 9,829
14,983 10,437

1,237
1,538
1,754
1,759
1,994

744
890
984
1,018
1,001

3,131 7,584
3,335 8,465
3,843 9,250
4,865 9,699
6,377 10,516

33,724
36,711
40,375
44,851
48,887

11,907
13,220
14,134
15,919
17,283

6,452
6,953
7,816
8,567
9,592

3,168
3,139
3,485
3,818
4,136

12,197
13,399
14,940
16,547
17,876

1960
1961
1962
1963

50,505
54,037
58,252
62,890

16,405
18,002
19,054
20,089

11,849
12,463
13,494
14,456

2,463
2,613
3,037
3,269

1,180
1,266
1,308
1,505

6,974
7,131
7,871
8,722

51,876
56,201
60,206
64,816

18,719 9,428
20,574 9,844
22,216 10,357
23,776 11,136

4,404
4,720
5,084
5,481

19,325
21,063
22,549
24,423

62,269 19,833
68,443 21,241
74,000 22,583
83,036! 24,670
91,197 26,047
101,264, 27,747

14,446
15,762
17,118
19,085
20,530
22,911

3,267
3,791
4,090
4,760
5,826
7,308,

1,505
1,695
1,929
2,038
2,227
2,518,

11,150
11,664
12,221
12,770
13,932
14,481

5,420
5,766
6,315
6,757
8,218
9,857j

23,678
25,586
27,447
30,029
33,281
36,915

1962-63*
1963-64 5....
1964-65«_.__
1965-66 » „ . .
1966-67 3
1967-68»

11,634
12,563
13,489
14,850

8,663 14,556 63,977
10,002 15,951 69,302
11,029 17,250 74,546
13,214 19,269 82,843
15,370: 21,197 93,350
17,181 2 3 , 598102,411
"~

23,729
26,286
28,563
33,287
37,919
41,158

i Fiscal years not the same for all governments. See footnote 5.
» Excludes revenues or expenditures of publicly owned utilities and liquor stores, and of insurance-trust activities.
Intergovernmental receipts and payments between State and local governments are also excluded.
* Includes licenses and other taxes and charges and miscellaneous revenues.
* Includes expenditures for health, hospitals, police, local fire protection, natural resources, sanitation, housing and
urban renewal, local parks and recreation, general control, financial administration, interest on general debt, and unallocable expenditures.
> Data for fiscal year ending in the 12-month period through June 30. Data for 1963 and earlier years include local government amounts grouped in terms of fiscal years ended during the particular calendar year.
Note.—Data are not available for intervening years.
See Table C-60 for net debt of State and local governments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.




259

CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE
TABLE G-71.—Profits before and after taxes, all private corporations, 1929-69
[Billions of dollars]

Corporate profits
after taxes

Corporate profits (before taxes) and
inventory valuation adjustment

Manufacturing

Year or
quarter

All
industries

1929 _.
10.5
1930 .
.
7.0
1931
2.0
1932
-1.3
1933
-1.2
1934
1.7
1935
3.4
1936 .
5.6
1937
6.8
1938
4.9
1939
6.3
1940 . .
9.8
1941..
15.2
1942
20.3
1943 . . .
24.4
1944...
23.8
19.2
1945
19.3
1946 . _ _
1947.
_.. 25.6
1948
33.0
1949
30.8
1950
._. 37.7
42.7
1951
39.9
1952
39.6
1953
1954
38.0
46.9
1955
46.1
1956
45.6
1957
1958
41 1
51.7
1959
49.9
1960
1961
50.3
55.7
1962
58 9
1963
1964
. . . 66.3
76.1
1965
82.4
1966
79.2
1967
87.9
1968
88.7
1969"

Transportation,
All
comDur- Nondur- muni- other
able able
indusTotal goods goods cation, tries
and
ininpublic
dus- dustries tries utilities
5.2
2.6
3.9
1.5
1.3
.0
- . 5 -1.0
-.4 -.4
1.1
.3
2.1
.9
3.2
1.7
3.8
1.7
2.3
.8
1.7
3.3
3.1
5.5
6.4
9.5
7.2
11.8
8.1
13.8
7.4
13.2
4.5
9.7
2.4
9.0
5.8
13.6
7.5
17.6
8.1
16.2
20.9 12.0
24.6 13.2
21.6 11.7
22.0 11.9
19.9 10.5
26.0 14.3
24.7 12.8
24.0 13.3
93
19 3
26.3 13.6
24 4 12 0
23.3 11.4
26.6 14.1
28 8 15 8
32.7 17.8
39.3 22 8
42.6 24 0
39.0 20.9
44.4 24.5
44.0 23.7

2.6
2.4
1.3
.5
.0
.8
1.1
1.5
2.1
1.6
1.7
2.4
3.1
4.6
5.7
5.9
5.2
6.6
7.8
10.0
8.1
8.9
11.4
9.9
10.1
9.4
11.8
11.9
10.7
10.0
12.7
12.4
11.9
12.5
13.0
14.9
16.6
18.6
18.1
19.9
20.2

1.8
1.2
.5
.2
.0
.4
.4
.7
.8
.5
1.0
1.3
2.0
3.4
4.4
3.9
2.7
1.8
2.2
3.0
3.0
4.0
4.6
4.9
5.0
4.7
5.6
5.9
5.8
59
7.0
7.5
7.9
8.5
9.5
10.1
11.1
11.9
.10.8
11.6
11.9

21.0
20 8
20 4
21.2
22.0
25.1
25.0
25.8
24.7
23 9
23.8

18.2
17.9
18 0
18.3
19.1
19.8
20.4
20.4
20.3
21.0
20.0

10.9
10.7
10.8
10.9
11.3
11.5
12.0
11.6
11.8
11.7
11.9

3.4
1.9
.2
-.9
-.8
.3
.9
1.7
2.2
2.1
2.0
3.0
3.7
5.1
6.2
6.7
6.7
8.5
9.9
12.5
11.6
12.7
13.5
13.3
12.6
13.4
15.2
15.6
15.8
15 9
18.4
17.9
19.1
20.5
20 6
23.5
25.6
27.9
29.4
31.9
32.9

Corporate
profits
before
taxes

liability i

10.0
3.7
-.4
-2.3
1.0
2.3
36
6.3
6.8
4.0
7.0
10.0
17.7
21.5
25.1
24.1
19.7
24.6
31.5
35.2
28.9
42.6
43.9
38.9
40.6
38.3
48.6
48.8
47.2
41 4
52.1
49 7
50.3
55.4
59 4
66.8
77 8
84.2
80.3
91.1
94.3

1.4
8.6
.8
2.9
.5 - . 9
.4 - 2 . 7
.4
1.6
'.7
1.0
2.6
4.9
1.4
5.3
1.5
1.0
2.9
1.4
5.6
2.8
7.2
7.6 10.1
11.4 10.1
14.1 11.1
12.9 11.2
9.0
10.7
9.1 15.5
11.3 20.2
12.5 22.7
10.4 18.5
17.8 24.9
22.3 21.6
19.4 19.6
20.3 20.4
17.7 20.6
21.6 27.0
21.7 27.2
21.2 26.0
19 0 22 3
23.7 28.5
23.0 26 7
23.1 27.2
24.2 31.2
26 3 33 1
28.3 38.4
31.3 46 5
34.3 49.9
33.0 47.3
41.3 49.8
43.5 50.8

Corporate
tax

UnDivi- disdend tribTotal pay- uted
ments profits

5.8
5.5
4.1
2.5
2.0
2.6
2.8
4.5
4.7
3.2
3.8
4.0
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.6
5.6
6.3
7.0
7.2
8.8
8.6
8.6
8.9
9.3
10.5
11.3
11.7
11 6
12.6
13 4
13.8
15.2
16 5
17.8
19 8
20.8
21.5
23.1
24.6

2.8
-2.6
-4.9
-5.2
-1.6
-1.0

21.1
21.7
22.0
21.1
22.2
22.9
23 6
23.8
23.8
24.3
24.9
25.2

24.9
24.8
25.0
28.8
25.7
26.7
26.5
27.8
27.9
27.0
24.9

.4
.6
-.2
1.8
3.2
5.7
5.9
6.6
6.5
4.4
9.9
13.9
15.6
11.3
16.0
13.0
11.0
11.5
11.3
16.5
15.9
14.2
10 8
15.9
13 2
13.5
16.0
16 6
20.6
26.7
29.1
25.9
26.7
26.3

Corporate
capital
consumption
allow-2
ances

Profits
plus
capital
consumption
allowances 3

4.2
4.3
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.8
4.2
5.0
5.4
6.1
6.4
4.7
5.8
7.0
7.9
8.8
10.3
11.5
13.2
15.0
17.4
18.9
20.8
22.0
23.5
24.9
26.2
30.1
31.8
33.9
36.4
39.5
42.6
45.9
49.1

12.8
7.2
3.5
1.3
4.2
5.2
6.3
8.5
8.9
6.6
9.3
11.0
14.4
15.2
16.4
17.2
15.4
20.2
26.0
29.7
26.5
33.7
31.8
31.0
33.5
35.5
44.4
46.1
46.8
44 3
52.0
51.6
53.5
61.3
64 8
72.3
82.9
89.5
90.0
95.7
99.9

41.5
42.2
43.0
43.8
44.8
45.8
46.2
46.7
47.7
48.6
49.6
50.5

87.5
88.6
90.0
93.7
92.8
95.5
96.3
98.4
99.4
100.0
99.3

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967: I

II
III
IV

1968: 1

II

III
IV
1969: 1
|l
III

78.3
78.3
79.1
81.1
82.5
88.2
90.6
90.3
89.5
89.2
88.8

39.2
38 8
38 3
39.5
41.1
44.9
45.4
46.2
45.1
44 9
43.8

IV p
1

28.2
28 8
30.1
30.7
30.1
31.8
33.1
32.6
32.6
32 6
33.1

78.4
79 1
79 5
84.4
87 9
^90.7
91.5
94.5
95.5
95 4
92.5

32.3
32 6
32 5
34.5
39.9
41.1
41.4
42.9
43.9
44.1
42.8

46.1
46 4
47.0
49.9
47.9
49.7
50.0
51.6
51.7
51.3
49.7

Federal and State corporate income and excess profits taxes.
2 Includes depreciation and accidental damages.
3
Corporate profits after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances.
Note.—Corporate profits tax and related items for 1969 reflect repeal of investment tax credit.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




TABLE

C—72.—Sales, profits, and stockholders' equity, all manufacturing corporations {except
newspapers*), 1947-69
{Billions of dollars]
All manufacturing
corporations

Year or
quarter

Profits
Sales
(net)

Before
taxes

After
taxes

Nondurable goods
industries

Durable goods industries

Profits
Stockholders' Sales
equity2 (net) Before After
taxes taxes

Profits
Stockholders' Sales
equity 2 (net) Before After
taxes taxes

Stockholders'
equity2

1947
1948
1949

150.7
165.6
154.9

16.6
18.4
14.4

10.1
11.5
9.0

65.1
72.2
77.6

66.6
75.3
70.3

7.6
8.9
7.5

4.5
5.4
4.5

31.1
34.1
37.0

84.1
90.4
84.6

9.0
9.5
7.0

5.6
6.2
4.6

34.0
38.1
40.6

1950 . .
1951
1952
1953
1954

181.9
245.0
250 2
265.9
248.5

23.2
27.4
22.9
24.4
20.9

12.9
11.9
10.7
11.3
11.2

83.3
98.3
103.7
108.2
113.1

86.8
116.8
122.0
137.9
122.8

12.9
15.4
12.9
14.0
11.4

6.7
6.1
5.5
5.8
5.6

39.9
47.2
49.8
52.4
54.9

95.1
128.1
128.0
128.0
125.7

10.3
12.1
10.0
10.4
9.6

6.1
5.7
5.2
5.5
5.6

43.5
51.1
53 9
55.7
58.2

1955
1956
1957 .
1958
1959

278.4
307.3
320.0
305.3
338.0

28.6
29.8
28.2
22.7
29.7

15.1
16 2
15.4
12.7
16.3

120.1
131.6
141.1
147.4
157.1

142.1
159.5
166.0
148.6
169.4

16.5
16.5
15.8
11.4
15.8

8.1
8.3
7.9
5.8
8.1

58.8
65.2
70.5
72.8
77.9

136.3
147.8
154.1
156.7
168.5

12.1
13.2
12.4
11.3
13.9

7.0
7.8
7.5
6.9
8.3

61.3
66 4
70.6
74.6
79.2

I960
1961
1962
1963
1964

345.7
356.4
389.9
412.7
443.1

27.5
27.5
31.9
34.9
39.6

15.2
15.3
17.7
19.5
23.2

165.4
172.6
181.4
189.7
199.8

173.9
175.2
195.5
209.0
226.3

14.0
13.6
16.7
18.5
21.2

7.0
6.9
8.6
9.5
11.6

82.3
84.9
89.1
93.3
98.5

171.8
181.2
194.4
203.6
216.8

13.5
13.9
15.1
16.4
18.3

8.2
8.5
9.2
10.0
11.6

83.1
87.7
92.3
96.3
101.3

1965
1966
1967
1968

492.2
554.2
575.4
631.9

46.5
51.8
47.8
55.4

27.5
30.9
29.0
32.1

211.7
230.3
247.6
265.9

257.0
291.7
300.6
335.5

26.2
29.2
25.7
30.7

14.5
16.4
14.6
16.5

105.4
115.2
125.0
135.6

235.2
262.4
274.8
296.4

20.3
22.6
22.0
24.7

13.0
14.6
14.4
15.5

106.3
115.1
122.6
130.3

1967: 1
II
III
IV

137.0
145 1
141.5
151.8

11.4
12 6
11.0
12.8

6.7
7.6
6.7
7.9

240.9
245.6
249.7
254.3

71.1
77.0
72.6
80.0

6.2
7.2
5.4
7.0

3.4
4.1
3.1
4.0

121.6
123.7
126.0
128.6

65.9
68.2
68.9
71.8

5.2
5.4
5.6
5.9

3.3
3.5
3.6
3.9

119.3
121.8
123.6
125.7

1968: 1
II
III
IV
1969: l»
IP....
Ill i

148.9
158.9
155.7
168.4

12.5
14.8
13.2
14.9

7.4
8.3
7.6
8.7

258.6
263.4
268.4
273.2

78.8
86.0
81.0
89.8

6.7
8.6
6.8
8.6

130.9
134.1
137.2
140.4

70.1
72.9
74.8
78.6

5.8
6.2
6.4
6.3

3.7
3.8
4.0
4.1

127.7
129.4
131.2
132.9

162.8
176.1
172.4

14.1
15.8
13.9

7.9
8.9
8.0

281.5
288.0
293.0

86.0
94.2
89.8

7.8
8.9
7.1

3.7
4.5
3.7
4.7
4.1
4.7
3.8

143.4
146.8
148.9

76.8
81.9
82.7

6.3
6.9
6.8

3.8
4.2
4.2

138.0
141.2
144.1

.

11 ncludes newspapers beginning 1969.
2 Annual data are average equity for the year (using four end-of-quarter figures).
Note.—For explanatory notes concerning compilation of the series, see "Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing
Corporations," Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission.
Data are not necessarily comparable from one period to another due to changes in accounting procedures, industry
classifications, sampling procedures, etc. Specific information about the effects of the more significant changes and revisions is contained in the following issues of the "Quarterly Financial Report": third quarter 1953, third quarter 1956,
first quarter 1959, and first quarter 1965.
Sources: Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission.




26l

T A B L E G—73.—Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders1 equity and to sales, all
turing corporations {except newspapers1), by industry group,
1948-69

Year or
quarter

Durable
All
manufacElecturtrical
ing
MamacorMoFabchin- chinporator
Airriery
ery,
tions Total vehi- craft
(ex- cated
(exdurcles
and equip- cept metal
cept able 2 and
parts ment, elec- prodand
newsequiptrical) ucts
suppapment
plies
ers*)

manufac-

goods industries

Primary
iron
and
steel
industries

LumPriber
Inmary
and
struStone, Furnonwood ments
clay,
ferniture prod- and
and
rous
and
ucts
remetal glass
fix(exlated
prodintures cept products
dusfurni- ucts
tries
ture)

Ratio of profits after Federal taxes (annual rate) to stockholders' equity—percent 3
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

16.0
11.6

15.7
12.1

19.9
22.1

16.1
13.6

16.3
11.6

17.0
10.4

14.7
10.0

15.4
12.1
10.3
10.5
9.9
12.6
12.3
10.9
8.6
10.4

16.9
13.0
11.1
11.1
10.3
13.8
12.8
11.3
8.0
10.4

25.3
14.3
13.9
13.9
14.1
21.7
13.1
14.2
8.2
14.5

14.3
12.3
8.5
10.7
8.1
13.5
12.7
11.4
7.2
8.0

9.2
8.9
9.8
10.3
11.6
13.0
13.4
11.7
12.1

8.5
8.1
9.6
10.1
11.7
13.8
14.2
11.7
12.2

13.5
11.4
16.3
16.7
16.9
19.5
15.9
11.7
15.1

5.6
5.9
7.9
8.3
10.1
13.2
14.7
12.7
11.7

1968: I
II
III
IV

11.5
12.6
11.4
12.8

11.3
13.4
10.7
13.3

16.5
17.9
7.4
18.5

13.6
14.4
14.3
14.5

9.5
8.9
10.0
10.1
11.2
13.5
14.8
12.8
12.2
11.8
11.4
11.5
13.9

14.1
13.0
11.3
9.8
8.6
10.3
12.6
10.7
6.9
9.7
7.5
7.8
9.1
9.6
12.5
14.1
15.0
12.9
12.3

16.0
13.4
10.1
9.8
7.6
10.0
10.7
9.3
7.3
8.0

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964........
1965
1966
1967.
1968

17.7
13.2
8.1
7.3
9.8
12.7
11.3
12.2
15.2
14.4
12.9
14.2

20.9
14.0
13.7
13.1
12.4
12.3
11.4
12.5
10.2
12.5

1969: l
11.3
IP.... 12.4
10.9

11.4
12.9
10.3

15.4
14.5
7.2

12.1
11.0
9.7

11.2
11.3
11.2

7.2
6.1
5.4
7.0
8.8
9.8
10.2
7.7
7.6
8.6
10.5
4.5
6.7
7.4
8.7
6.1

11.1
13.6
12.3
12.1
11.2
14.6
11.7

10.0
12.5
12.1
12.3
10.8
12.5
11.1

14.2
8.1
15.1
13.8
11.6
11.1
10.4
15.5
16.4
9.3
6.0
7.9
7.1
7.1
7.5
7.6
9.8
11.9
14.8
10.9
10.8
8.9
11.5
9.9
12.6
11.3
12.9
11.5

15.0
13.1
17.7
14.2
11.7
11.8
12.5
15.6
14.9
12.4
10.2
12.7
9.9
8.9
8.9
8.7
9.6
10.3
9.9
8.2
9.2
3.9
11.7
12.0
9.1
4.9
11.9
12.2

14.0
12.1

15.9
8.1
15.2
11.3
8.6
8.2
6.0
9.2
11.6
8.5
6.3
8.9
6.5
4.9
7.9
8.3
10.1
13.4
14.2
12.1
12.2

19.2
9.1
17.5
11.9
8.5
7.1
6.3
11.1
8.7
4.7
5.7
9.4
3.6
4.1
5.6
8.2
9.9
10.1
10.0
8.6
14.6

9.1
12.8
12.5
14.6
11.0
13.4
13.5

10.9
16.1
16.3
15.1
17.1
18.9
8.6

13.8
16.0
15.7

5.5
3.3
5.1
3.4
2.7
2.6
2.1
2.9
3.4
2.6
2.0
2.7
2.1
1.6
2.3
2.4
2.9
3.7
3.9
3.5
3.4
2.8
3.6
3.5
3.8

9.9
5.9
9.4
5.5
4.1
3.5
3.4
5.4
3.9
2.3
2.8
4.2
1.7
1.9
2.5
3.3
3.9
4.0
3.8
3.4
5.3
4.4
5.7
5.8
5.4
6.3
6.6
3.2

7.8
7.1
8.6
6.1
4.8
4.6
5.5
6.0
5.8
5.7
5.4
6.5
5.9
5.4
5.9
6.0
7.2
8.6
9.5
8.5
8.1
7.4
7.6
8.7
8.5
7.3
7.8
8.1

16.7
13.2
11.6
11.4
12.3
12.5
12.4
12.0
10.6
13.1
11.6
10.6
12.0
12.1
14.4
17.5
20.9
18.0
16.6
14.1
15.5
18.0
18.4

Profits after taxes per dollar of sales—cents

1948
1949
1950...
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955..
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1968:

I
II.
III..
IV..

1969:

11...
IM.
IIP

7.0
5.8
7.1
4 8
4.3
4.3
4.5
5.4
5.3
4.8
4.2
4.8
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.7
5.2
5.6
5.6
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.2
4.9
5.2
4.9
5.1
4.6

7.1
6.4
7.7
5.3
4.5
4.2
4.6
5.7
5.2
4.8
3.9
4.8
4.0
3.9
4.4
4.5
5.1
5.7
5.6
4.8
4.9
4.7
5.2
4.5
5.2
4.8
5.0
4.3

6.9
7.9
8.3
4.7
4.7
3.9
5.1
6.9
5.2
5.4
4.0
6.3
5.9
5.5
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.2
6.2
4.9
5.7
6.1
6.2
3.4
6.3
5.6
5.2
3.1

~~2.y
2.4
1.6
1.4
1.8
2.4
2.3
2.6
3.3
3.0
2.7
3.2
2.9
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.0

5.9
5.7
7.2
5.0
4.5
4.1
4.5
4.4
3.8
4.2
3.8
4.4
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.2
4.8
4.8
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.7
4.0
3.9
4.0

7.3
6.4
7.3
5.5
4.8
4.2
4.4
5.1
5.4
4.8
3.7
4.8

7.1
5.1
6.8
5.0
4.0
3.6
3.1
3.8
4.0
3.6
3.1
3.2

3.9
4.1
4.5
4.7
5.8
6.2
6.4
5.7
5.5
5.1
5.7
5.6
5.4

2.4
2.5
3.1
3.2
3.7
4.5
4.9
4.5
4.1
3.6
4.4
4.2
4.1

5.2
6.1
5.3

3.8
4.1
3.6

See footnotes at end of table.




262

7.6
6.5
7.9
5.8
4.7
5.3
5.3
7.2
6.7
6.6
5.4
5.4
5.1
4.6
3.9
4.8
5.6
5.7
5.8
4.8
4.6
5.1
5.5
2.9
4.6
4.5
4.8
3.6

9.0
6.9
10.2
7.8
6.7
6.3
6.6
8.3
9.3
6.6
4.7
5.8
5.4
5.3
5.5
5.3
6.5
7.3
8.2
6.8
6.2
5.4
6.4
5.9
6.9
6.4
6.8
6.2

8.6
8.6
10.1
7.1
6.6
6.5
7.4
8.6
8.2
7.5
6.8
7.9
6.6
5.8
5.6
5.3
5.6
5.9
5.6
4.8
5.2
2.6
6.4
6.3
4.9
2.9
5.7
5.9

3.1
3.6
3.8

TABLE C-73.—Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders* equity and to sales, all manufacturing corporations {except newspapers1), by industry group, 1948-69—Continued
Nondurable goods industries
PrintTotal
nondurable::

Food
and
kindred
products

1948
1949.
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
_.
1958
1959.. . .
1960
1961
1962
1963 . . .
1964..
1965.
1966
1967
1968
1968: 1
II....
Ill —
IV....
1969: 1 »....
II i._.
IIH-.

16.2
11.2
14.1
11.2
9.7
9.9
9.6
11.4
11.8
10.6
9.2
10.4
9.8
9.6
9.9
10.4
11.5
12.2
12.7
11.8
11.9
11.7
11.7
12.1
12.2
11.1
11.9
11.5

12.8
11.8
12.3
8.1
7.6
8.1
8.1
8.9
9.3
8.7
8.7
9.3
8.7
8.9
8.8
9.0
10.0
10.7
11.2
10.8
10.8
9.9
10.2
11.4
11.4
9.6
10.7
11.9

13.6
12.6
11.5
9.5
8.4
9.4
10.2
11.4
11.7
12.5
13.5
13.4
13.4
13.6
13.1
13.4
13.4
13.5
14.1
14.4
14.4
13.5
13.6
15.9
14.8
12.1
14.8
15.6

1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954... .
1955
1956... .
1957
1958
1959.
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965..
1966
1967
1968
1968: 1
II—.
III...
IV-..
1969: \K...
II i . . .
III*..

6.8
5.4
6.5
4.5
4.1
4.3
4.4
5.1
5.3
4.9
4.4
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.9
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.3
5.2
5.3
5.2
5.3
5.2
5.0
5.1

3.3
3.3
3.4
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.4
2.6
2.8

5.2
5.1
4.9
3.8
3.2
3.7
4.2
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.5
5.7
5.5
6.0
5.1
4.6
5.2
5.6

Year or
quarter

Tobacco
manufactures

Textile
mill
products

Apparel
and
related
products

Paper
and
allied
products

and
publishing
(except
newspapers i)

Chemicals
and
allied
products

Petroleum
refining

Rubber
and
miscellaneous
plastic
products

Leather
and
leather
products

Ratio of profits after Federal taxes (annualjrate) to stockholders' equity—percent 3
18.7
7.6
12 7
8.2
4.2
4.6
1.8
5.7
5.8
4.2
3.5
7.5
5.8
5.0
6.2
6.1
8.5
10.9
10.1
7.6
8.8
7.1
9.1
9.5
9.3
7.2
8.8
7.7

12.1
7.5
10.1
2.9
4.4
5.1
4.5
6.1
8.1
6.3
4.9
8.6
7.7
7.2
9.3
7.7
11.7
12.7
13.3
12.0
13.0
12.0
9.3
15.0
15.3
10.3
11.4
15.9

16.4
10.7
16 2
13.9
10.5
10.1
9.9
11.5
11.6
8.9
8.1
9.5
8.5
7.9
8.1
8.1
9.3
9.4
10.6
9.1
9.7
8.5
10.5
9.2
10.6
9.8
11.1
9.6'

14.7
11.4
11.5
10.3
9.1
9.4
9.2
10.2
13.0
11.7
9.0
11.4
10.6
8.5
10.3
9.2
12.6
14.2
15.6
13.0
12.5
10.9
10.7
14.8
13.8
10.8
13.1
12.4

15.8
13.2
17.8
12.2
10.9
10.7
11.6
14.7
14.2
13.3
11.4
13.7
12.2
11.8
12.4
12.9
14.4
15.2
15.1
13.1
13.3
13.4
13.6
12.8
13.3
12.9
13.8
12.4

15.2
13.3
13.4
12.7
13.4
13.9
12.5
10.0
9.8
10.1
10.3
10.1
11.3
11.4
11.8
12.4
12.5
12.3
12.9
11.9
12.1
12.2
12.0
11.9
11.4

12.3
8.7
16.9
14.8
11.1
11.3
10.6
13.2
12.2
11.1
9.1
11.0
9.1
9.3
9.6
9.2
10.6
11.7
12.2
10.3
12.3
10.8
13.5
11.8
12.9
9.6
11.9
9.5

10.4
6.2
10.9
2.1
5.8
6.0
5.9
8.5
7.2
7.0
5.i
8.S
6.3
4.4
6.9
6.9
10.5
11.6
12. <
11. S
13. t
13.3
12. (
12 J
14.4
8.6
8.C
9.4
3.3
2.2
3.7

11.1
10.1
10.4
10.6
11.1
11.6
10.6
9.5
9.5
9.9
10.3
9.7
10.8
10.9
11.1
11.2
11.0
10.7
11.2
10.6
10.7
10.3
10.6
10.2
10.0

4.7
3.8
5.8
4.5
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.4
4.4
4.2
3.5
4.0
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
4.1
4.3
4.4
3.9
4.5
4.2
4.8
4.5
4.6
3.7
4.1
3.5

Profits after taxes per dollar of sales—cents

5.6

8.3
4.1
5.8
3.4
1.9
2.2
1.0
2.6
2.6
1.9
1.6
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.4
2.3
3.1
3.8
3.6
2.9
3.1
2.7
3.2
3.4
3.2
2.7
3.2
2.8

3.1
2.1
2.8
.6
0
.?
,3
.6
.0
f
>
.4
3
1.6
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.5
1.9
2.7
2.6
2.2
2.2
3.0

8.5
6.5
8.8
6.6
5.7
5.4
5.6
6.1
6.1
5.0
4.7
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.6
4.5
5.1
4.9
5.4
4.7
4.7
4.4
5.1
4.5
5.0
4.7
5.2
4.7

5.2
4.5
4.5
3.7
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.6
4.2
3.7
3.1
4.0
3.6
2.8
3.4
3.2
4.3
4.8
5.1
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.6
i.8
1.3
1.1
i.9
4.7

8.8
8.2
10.3
6.5
6.1
6.1
6.8
8.3
8.0
7.6
7.0
7.9
7.5
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.9
7.9
7.8
6.9
6.8
7.0
6.9
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.3

1.1
1.1
1.!
2.5
2.1
2.1
i.;
2.2
1.6
i.:
I.I
I.I
2.1
2.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.:
3.2
3.(
2.4
2.2
2.6

1 Includes newspapers beginning 1969.
2 Includes certain industries not shown separately.
a Annual ratios based on average equity for the year (using four end-of-quarter figures). Quarterly ratios based on equity
at end of quarter only.
Note—For explanatory notes concerning compilation of the series, see "Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing
Corporations," Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission. See also Note, Table C-72.
Sources: Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission.




263

TABLE C—74.—Sources and uses offunds, nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business, 1958-68
[Billions of dollars]
Source or use of funds

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

Sources, total-

44.2

57.9

48.1

56.6

64.9

67.1

71.8

93.1 100.6

94.2

110.4

Internal sources l

29.5

35.0

34.4

35.6

41.8

43.9

50.5

56.6

61.2

61.2

63.1

Undistributed profits i
8.3
Corporate inventory valuation ad-.3
justment
Capital consumption allowancesL 21.4

12.6

10.0

10.2

12.4

13.6

18.3

23.1

24.7

21.2

22.0

-.5
22.9

.2
24.2

-.1
25.4

.3
29.2

-.5
30.8

- . 5 -1.7 -1.8 -1.1
32.8 35.2 38.2 41.2

-3.2
44.3

22.9

13.7

21.0

23.1

23.2

21.3

36.5

39.4

33.0

47.3

2.2
1.6
3.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
1.9
3.5
1.9
-.3
.6
5.5
2.4 -2.2
4.0
3.6

2.5
4.6
3.9
.7
.6
5.4
1.4
1.7

.6
4.6
4.5
3.0
.0
4.6
.6
5.2

1.4
4.0
3.6
3.8
.9
3.6
.5
3.5

.0
5.4
3.9
10.6
.6
9.1
2.2
4.6

1.2
2.3
10.2 14.7
4.2
4.5
8.4
6.4
1.4
1.4
7.3
2.6
.2 -4.1
6.5
5.2

-.8
12.9
5.8
9.6
3.6
5.7
3.7
6.9

External sources

14.7

Stocks..

2.1
5.7
2.9
-.3
-.2
4.7
-2.6
2.4

Bonds

Mortgages
Bank loans n.e.c
Other loans
Trade debt
Profits tax liability
Other liabilities
Uses, total

_..._-<-

l.*9
4.9
3.7
.2
5.3
1.9
3.7

103.5

40.5

53.1

43.7

52.2

60.0

63.2

64.9

85.8

92.5

85.9

27.3

36.9

39.0

36.7

44.0

45.6

52.1

62.8

77.1

72.5

76.9

Nonresidential fixed investment- 28.4
Residential structures
1.4
Change in business inventories. _ -2.5

31.1
1.7
4.1

34.9
1.1
3.0

33.2
1.9
1.5

37.0
2.3
4.7

38 6
2.6
4.3

44.1
2.1
5.9

52.8
2.0
7.9

61.6
1.1
14.4

63.8
2.2
6.4

68.0
2.3
6.5

16.2

Purchases of physical assets

Increase in financial assets
Liquid assets
Demand deposits and currency
Time deposits
U.S. Government securities
Open-market paper.
State and local obligations
Consumer credit
Trade credit
Other financial assets
Discrepancy (sources less uses)

4.7

15.6

16.0

17.7

12.8

23.1

15.5

13.5

26.6

5.6 -3.2

3.7

3.5

47
.

12
.

1.7

1.9

.6

10.1

1.5 -1.0 - . 5
1.3
.9 - . 4
.0
6.6 -5.4
1.7
-.2
.5
J -.2

1.7
1.9
-.2
.4
.0

-.9
3.7
.5
.6
-.3

- . 8 -2.3 -1.5
,7 -2.2
3.9
3.2
3.9
4.1
-1.5 -1.6 -~1.*2 -2.5
1.6
2.0
.2
.2
'.5 1.0 -;!

1.3
2.2
1.8
4.5
.4

.6
8.3
1.7

.8
7.7
2.0

.4
5.3
2.2

.2
9.5
2.1

.7
8.5
3.2

1.0
8.1
3.9

1.3
8.1
2.2

1.2
15.1
5.1

1.2
11.3
1.0

.9
8.8
3.2

1.7
14.8
.1

3.7

4.8

4.3

4.3

5.0

3.8

6.9

72
.

8.0

82
.

6.9

13.2
2.7

*The figures shown here for "internal sources," "undistributed profits," and "capital consumption allowances"
differ from those shown for "cash flow, net of dividends," "undistributed profits," and "capital consumption allowances"
in the gross corporate product table in the national income and product accounts of the Department of Commerce for
the following reasons: (1) these figures include, and the statistics in the gross corporate product table exclude, branch
profits remitted from foreigners net of corresponding U.S. remittances to foreigners; and (2) these figures exclude, and
the gross corporate product figures include, the internal funds of corporations whose major activity is farming.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




264

TABLE C-75.—Current assets and liabilities of United States corporationss 1939-69
[Billions of dollars]
Current assets

End of year
or quarter

1939
1940
1941
1942 .
1943
1944
1945
1946 .
1947
1948 . . .
1949
1950
1951
1952 _
1953.
1954
1955
1956
.
1957.
1958
1959 . .
1960
1961
New series 5
1961
...
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1967:1
II
ML
IV
1968:1
II
III
IV
1969:1
II
III

Cash
on
Total hand
and
in
banks 1

U.S.
Government
securities 2

Current liabilities

AdRevances
ceiv- Notes
and
Notes FedOther
eral
ables
and
preand
Incurinfrom
acpayacven- rent Total ments, counts come
U.S. counts
astax
Gov- receiv- tories sets <
U.S.
pay- liabiliernable
Govable
ties
ments
ernment 3

54.5
60.3
72.9
83.6
93.8
97.2
97.4
108.1

10 8
13.1
13. &
17.6
21.6
21.6
21.7
22.8

2.2
2.0
4.0
10.1
16.4
20.9
21.1
15.3

0.1
.6
4.0
5.0
4.7
2.7
.7

22.1
23.9
27.4
23.3
21.9
21.8
23.2
30.0

18.0
19.8
25.6
27.3
27.6
26.8
26.3
37.6

1.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
2.4
1.7

30.0
32.8
40.7
47.3
51.6
51.7
45 8
51.9

123.6
133.0
133.1
161.5
179.1
186.2
190.6
.194.6
224.0
. 237.9
244.7
255.3
277.3
289.0
306.8

25.0
25.3
26.5
28.1
30.0
30.8
31.1
33.4
34.6
34.8
34.9
37.4
36.3
37.2
41.1

14.1
14.8
16.8
19.7
20.7
19.9
21.5
19.2
23.5
19.1
18.6
18.8
22.8
20.1
20.0

38-3
42 .4
4- .0
55.7
1.1
2.7
58.8
2.8
64.6
2.6
65.9
2.4
71.2
86.6
2.3
95.1
2.6
99.4
2.8
2.8 106.9
2.9 117.7
3.1 126.1
3.4 135.8

44.6
48.9
45.3
55.1
64.9
65.8
67.2
65.3
72.8
80.4
82.2
81.9
88.4
91.8
95.2

1.6
1.6
1.4
1.7
2 1
2.4
2.4
3.1
42
5.9
6.7
7 5
9.1
10.6
11.4

61.5
64.4
60.7
79 8
92.6
96.1
98.9
99.7
121.0
130.5
133.1
136.6
153.1
160.4
171.2

304.6
326.5
351.7
372.2
410.2
442.6
463.1
506.3
443.2
444.2
451.9
463.1
470.9
481.2
491.5
506.3
515.7
526.7
536.8

40.7
43.7
46.5
47.3
49.9
49.3
51.4
55.1
46.6
46.9
48.3
51.4
49.3
50.5
51.9
55.1
51.9
52.6
51.2

19.2
19.6
20.2
18.6
17.0
15.4
12.2
13.7
14.1
11.3
10.6
12.2
14.5
13.0
12.6
13.7
15.4
13.0
11.8

3.4
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.9
4.5
5.1
5.1
4.4
4.6
4.7
5.1
4.8
4.7
4.8
5.1
4.8
4.8
4.6

95.2
100.7
107.0
113.5
126.9
143.1
152.3
164.6
146.6
147.7
149.7
152.3
155.0
158.3
162.1
164.6
169.2
174.0
178.7

12.9
14.7
17.8
19.6
22.3
25.1
27.6
32.2
26.4
26.0
27.1
27.6
30.7
31.2
30.8
32.2
34.6
35.3
35.7

155.8
170.9
188.2
202.2
229.6
?54.4
264.3
293.9
?5? 4
?5?,5
256.9
264.3
266.6
273.5
282.7
293.9
300.8
310.4
322.2

133.3
144.2
156.8
169.9
190.2
205.2
214.6
235.6
205.2
207.6
211.5
214.6
216.6
223.5
229.4
235.6
239.8
247.1
254.7

.-"

21.9
22.6
25.6
24.0
24.1
25.0
24.8
31.5

Net
Other working
current capital
liabilities

*.
37 .6
39 .3
37 .5
47.9
.4
1.3
53.6
57.0
2.3
57.3
2.2
2.4
59.3
73.8
2.3
81.5
2.4
84,3
£3
88.7
1.7
99.3
1.7
1.8 105.0
1.8 112.8

1.2
2.5
7.1
12.6
16.6
15.5
10.4
8.5

6.9
7.1
7 2
8.7
8.7
9.4
9.7
11.8

24.5
27. £
32.3
36.3
42.1
45.6
51.6
56.2

10.7
11.5
9.3
16.7
21.3
18.1
18.7
15.5
19.3
17.6
15.4
12.9
15.0
13.5
14.1

13.2
13.5
14.0
14.9
16.5
18.7
20.7
22.5
25.7
29.0
31.1
33.3
37.0
40.1
42.5

62.1
68.6
72.4
81.6
86.5
90.1
91. E
94.9
103. C
107.4
111.6
118.7
124.2
128.6
135.6

110.0
119.1
130.4
140.3
160.4
179.0
186.4
205.2
176.3
179.8
181.4
186.4
184.7
190.9
196.8
205.2
206.1
215.3
222.9

14.2
15.2
16.5
17.0
19.1
18.3
14.6
16.8
17.8
12.2
13.0
14.6
16.5
14.8
15.1
16.8
19.1
15.4
16.4

29.8
34.5
38.7
42.2
46.9
52.8
57.4
65.4
53.5
55.1
56.7
57.4
59.3
61.5
64.6
65.4
68.872.5
75.4

148. f
155.6
163.1
170. C
180.7
188.2
198.8

0.6
.8
2.0
2.2
1.8
.9
.1

1.8
2.0
2.5
2.7
3.1
4.4
5.8
6.4
4.9
5.4
5.7
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.9
7.2
7.5

-

'

—

•<•

?\?A

190.7
191.6
195. C
198.8
?04.?
207.1
208.7
212.4
215. C
216.3
214. (

1 Includes time certificates of deposit.
2 Includes Federal agency issues.
3 Receivables from and payables to U.S. Government do not include amounts offset against each other on corporations'
books or amounts arising from subcontracting which are not directly due from or to the U.S. Government. Wherever possible,
adjustments have been made to include U.S. Government advances offset against inventories on corporations' books.
* Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities and time certificates of deposit) as well as sundry
current assets.
s Generally reflects definitions and classifications used in "Statistics of Income" for 1961.
Note.—Data relate to all United States corporations, excluding banks, savings and loan associations, insurance companies, and beginning with the new series for 1961, investment companies. Year-end data through 1956 are based on
"Statistics of Income" (Treasury Department), covering virtually all corporations in the United States. "Statistics of
I ncome" data may not be strictly comparable from year to year because of changes in the tax laws, basis for filing returns,
and processing of data for compilation purposes. All other figures shown are estimates based on data compiled from many
different sources, including data on corporations registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.




265

TABLE C--76.—State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-69
[Millions of dollars]
Corporate securities offered for cash

Year or quarter

State and
municipal
securities
offered
for cash
(principal
amounts)

Type of corporate security
Total
corporate
offerings

Common
stock

Preferred
stock

Bonds
and
notes

Industry of corporate user

Manufacturing 1

Electric,
and
water 2

Transportations

Communication

939

397

19

371

67

133

176

1,232
1,121
908
1,108
1,128

2,332
4,572
2,310
2,155
2,164

22
272
285
25
87

271
406
86
98

2,225
4,029
1,618
2,044
1,980

797
1,332
1,120
848
604

1,284
2,040
771
1,234
1,271

126
797
344
55
186

1,238
956
524
435
661

2,677
2,667
1,062
1,170
3,202

108
110
34
56
163

183
167
112
124
369

2,386
2,390
917
990
2,669

992
848
539
510
1,061

1,203
1,357
472
477
1,422

324
366
48
161
609

795
1,157
2,324
2,690
2,907

6,011
6,900
6,577
7,078
6,052

397
891
779
614
736

758
1,127
762
492
425

4,855
4,882
5,036
5,973
4,890

2,026
3,701
2,742
2,226
1,414

2,319
2,158
3,257
2,187
2,320

1,454
711
286
755
800

902
571

3,532
3,189
4,401
5,558
6,969

6,361
7,741
9,534
8,898
9,516

811
1,212
1,369
1,326
1,213

631
838
564
489
816

4,920
5,691
7,601
7,083
7,488

1,200
3,122
4,039
2,254
2,268

2,649
2,455
2,675
3,029
3,713

813
494
992
595
778

399
612
760
882
720

5,977
5,446
6,958
7,449
7,681

10,240
10,939
12,884
11,558
9,748

2,185
2,301
2,516
1,334
2,027

635
636
411
571
531

7,420
8,002
9,957
9,653
7,190

2,994
3,647
4,234
3,515
2,073

2,464
2,529
3,938
3>804
3,258

893
724
824
824
967

1,132
1,419
1,462
1,424
717

7,230
8,360
8,558
10,107
10,544

10,154
13,165
10,705
12,211
13,957

1,664
3,294
1,314
1,011
2,679

409
450
422
343
412

8,081
9,420
8,969
10,856
10,865

2,152
4,077
3,249
3,514
3,046

2,851
3,032
2,825
2,677
2,760

718
694
567
957
982

1,050
1,834
1,303
1,105
2,189

11,148
11,089
14,288
16,374
11,442

15,992
18,074
24,798
21,966
26,790

1,547
1,939
1,959
3,946
7,740

725
574
885
637
690

13,720
15,561
21,954
17,383
18,360

5,417
7,070
11,058
6,979
6,310

2,936
3,665
4,935
5,281
6,700

1,013
1,972
2,067
1,875
2,120

947
2,003
1,979
1,766
2,190

4,046
3,799
3,038
3,404

5,464
6,208
6,832
6,294

298
518
447
696

92
208
231
354

5,074
5,482
6,154
5,244

2,502
3,084
2,880
2,591

1,011
1,304
1,281
1,339

503
437
659
469

548
556
601
274

3,658
3,771
4,511
4,435

5,178
5,705
5,133
5,950

740
832
986
1,389

249
124
179

4,189
4,749
3,967
4,477

1,907
1,703
',657
,712

1,442
1,244
1,160
1,435

404
470
427
574

422
536
490
319

2,738
3,426
2,376
2,902

6,219
7 354
6,332
6,880

1,786
2,141
1,616
2,200

236
128
182
150

4,197
5,085
4,534
4,530

,407
,774
,862
1,270

1,345
1,879
1,544
1 930

807
612
371
320

474
432
684
600

1 Prior to 1948, also includes extractive, radio broadcasting, airline companies, commercial and miscellaneous company
issues.
2 Prior to 1948, also includes telephone, street railway, and bus company issues.
3 Prior to 1948, includes railroad issues only.
Note.—Covers substantially all new issues of state, municipal, and corporate securities offered for cash sale in the United
States in amounts over $100,000 and with terms to maturity of more than 1 year; excludes notes issued exclusively
to commercial banks, intercorporate transactions, investment company issues, and issues to be sold over an extended period, such as employee-purchase plans.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission, "The Commercial and Financial Chronicle," and "The Bond Buyer."




366

TABLE C-77.—Common stock prices,earnings, and yields, and stock market credit, 1939-69
Standard & Poor's common stock data
Price index *
Year or month
Total
(500
stocks)

Industrials
(425
stocks)

12.06
11.02
9.82
8.67
11.50
12.47
15.16
17.08
15.17
15.53
15.23
18.40
22.34
24.50
24.73
29.69
40.49
46.62
44.38
46.24
57.38
55.85
66.27
62.38
69.87
81.37
88.17
85.26
91.93
98.70
97.84
95.04
90.75
89.09
95.67
97.87
100.53
100.30
98.11
101.34
103.76
105.40
106.48
102.04
101.46
99.30
101.26
104.62
99.14
94.71
94.18
94.51
95.52
96.21
91.11

11.77
10.69
9.72
8.78
11.49
12.34
14.72
16.48
14.85
15.34
15.00
18.33
22.68
24.78
24.84
30.25
42.40
49.80
47.63
49.36
61.45
59.43
69.99
65.54
73.39
86.19
93.48
91.08
99.18
107.49
107.13
103.11
98.33
96.77
104.42
107.02
109.73
109.16
106.77
110.53
113.29
114.77
116.01
110.97
110.15
108.20
110.68
114.53
108.59
103.68
103.39
103.97
105.07
105.86
100.48

Public
utilities
(55
stocks)

Railroads
(20
stocks)

Stock market credit

Dividend
yield 2
(percent)

Price/
earnings
ratio 3

4 05
5.59
6.82
7.24
4.93
4.86
4.17
3.85
4.93
5.54
6.59
6.57
6.13
5.80
5.80
4.95
4.08
4.09
4.35
3.97
3.23
3.47
2.98
3.37
3.17
3.01
3.00
3.40
3.20
3.07
3.24
3.13
3.28
3.34
3.12
3.07
3.00
3.00
3.09
3.01
2.94
2.92
2.93
3.06
3.10
3.17
3.11
3.02
3.18
3.34
3.37
3.33
3.33
3.31
3.52

13 80
10.25
8.27
8.80
12.84
13.66
16.33
17.69
9.36
6.91
6.64
6.63
9.27
10.47
9.69
11.25
11.51
14.05
12.89
16.64
17.05
17.09
21.06
16.68
17.62
18.08
17.08
14.92
17.52
17.20

Customer credit (excluding
U.S. Government
securities)
Total

1941-43=10
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
_...
1945
__.,.. .
1946 .
1947
1948
1949
1950.
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956...
1957
1958
1959
1960.
.
1961
1962 . . .
1963
1964
1965 . . .
1966
..... ...
1967
1968.
1969 P
1968: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov....
Dec
1969: Jan
Feb
.
Mar
Apr
May
June
July .
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Deep _ _

16 34
15.05
10.93
7.74
11.34
12.81
16.84
20.76
18.01
16.77
17.87
19.96
20.59
22 86
24.03
27.57
31.37
32.25
32.19
37.22
44.15
46.86
60.20
59.16
64.99
69.91
76.08
68.21
68.10
66.42
62.64
68.02
65.61
62.62
63.66
62.92
65.21
67.55
66 60
66.77
66.93
70.59
70.54
68.65
69.24
66.07
65.63
66.91
63.29
61.32
59.20
57.84
58.80
59 46
55.28

Bank
loans to
brokers
Net
Bank
and
debit
loans
dealers •
balto
ances* "others"«
Millions of dollars

9 82
9.41
9.39
8.81
11.81
13.47
18.21
19.09
14.02
15.27
12.83
15.53
19.91
22.49
22.60
23.96
32.94
33.65
28.11
27.05
35.09
30.31
32.83
30.56
37.58
45.46
46.78
46.34
46 72
48.84
45.95
43 38
42.35
41.68
44.79
48.00
51.72
51.01
48 80
51.11
54.26
53.74
55.19
54.11
54.78
50.46
49.53
49.97
46.43
43.00
42 04
42.03
41.75
40 63
36.69

16.40
17.23
17.61
17.54
17.68
16.59
15.70

1,374
976
1,032
968
1,249
1,798
1,826
1,980
2,445
3,436
4,030
3,984
3,576
4,537
4,461
4,415
5,602
5,494
7 242
7,053
7,770
7,444
10,347
12,488
10,026
10,218
9,840
9,622
10,047
10,625
11,138
11,277
10,976
11,238
11,416
11,666
12,488
11,793
11,949
11,099
10,807
11,240
10,951
10,216
9,684
9,655
9,816
9,635
10,026

942
473
517
499
821
1,237
1,253
1,332
1,665
2,388
2,791
2,823
2,482
3,285
3,280
3,222
4,259
4,125
5,515
5,079
5,521
5,329
7,883
9,790
7,447
7,797
7,419
7,248
7,701
8,268
8,728
8,861
8,489
8,723
8,859
9,029
9,790
9,042
9,148
8,318
8,044
8,474
8,214
7,515
7,019
7,039
7,243
7,111
7,447

353
432
503
515
469
428
561
573
648
780
1,048
1,239
1,161
1,094
1,252
1,181
1,193
1,343
1,369
1,727
1,974
«2,249
2,115
2,464
2,698
2,579
2,421
2,421
2,374
2,346
2,357
2,410
2,416
2,487
2,515
2,557
2,637
2,698
2,751
2,801
2,781
2,763
2,766
7 2,737
2,701
2,665
2,616
2,573
2,524
2,579

715
584
535
850
1,328
2,137
2,782
1,471
784
1,331
1,60*
1,742
1,419
2,002
2,248
2,688
2,852
2 214
2,191
2,56$
2,58'
2,614
3,391
4 352
4,754
4,631
8
4,277
4,501
5,082
5,796
5,146
5,826
5,052
4,305
4,376
4,282
4,584
6,327
6,156
6,452
5,642
4,96C
5,796
4,53S
4,334
3,697
4,36^
4,05:
7 4,37S
4,462
3,38$
3,575
3,588
4,197
5,14€

1
Annual data are averages of monthly figures and monthly data are averages of daily figures.
2 Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by the aggregate monthly market value of the
stocks in the group. Annual yields are averages of monthly data.
s Ratio of quarterly earnings (seasonally adjusted annual rate) to price index for last day in quarter. Annual ratios are
averages of quarterly data.
4
As reported by member firms of the New York Stock Exchange carrying margin accounts. Includes net debit balances
of all customers (other than general partners in the reporting firm and member firms of national exchanges) whose combined accounts net to a debit. Balances secured by U.S. Government obligations are excluded through 1967 and included
thereafter. Data are for end of period.
«Loans by weekly reporting member banks (weekly reporting large commercial banks beginning 1965) to others than
brokers and dealers for purchasing or carrying securities except U.S. Government obligations. Data are for last Wednesday
of 6period.
Loans by weekly reporting member banks (weekly reporting large commercial banks beginning 1965) for purchasing
or carrying securities, including U.S. Government obligations. Data are for last Wednesday of period.
7 Revised series; not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor's Corporation, and New York Stock
Exchange.




267

TABLE C-78.—Business formation and business failures, 1929-69
Business failures 1

Year or month

Index
of net
business
formation
(1957-59=
100)

New
business
incorporations
(number)

Business
failure
rate 2

Liability size
class
Total
Under
$100,000

1929
1930
1931
1932
1933 3
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939 3
1940
1941 1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952. .
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961.
1962
1963
1964 .
1965.
1966
1967...
1968 .
1969

123.1
96.7
102.3
102.8
108.0
103.5
99.8
107.6
103.2
98.3
97.1
104.6
99.8
95.4
98.0
100.6
104.5
106.0
105.5
107.7
117.8

132,916
112,897
96,346
85,640
93,092
83,778
92,946
102,706
117,411
139,915
141,163
137,112
150,781
193,067
182,713
181,535
182,057
186,404
197,724
203,897
200,010
206,569
233,635

Amount of current
liabilities (millions
of dollars)

Number of failures

$100,000
and

Liability size
class
Total

over

Under
$100,000

$100,000
and
over

103.9
121.6
133.4
154.1
100.3
61.1
61.7
47.8
45.9
61.1
69.6
63.0
54.5
44.6
16.4
6.5
4.2
5.2
14.3
20.4
34.4
34.3
30.7
28.7
33.2
42.0
41.6
48.0
51.7
55.9
51.8
57.0
64.4
60.8
56.3
53.2
53.3
51.6
49.0
38.6
37.3

22,909
26,355
28,285
31,822
19,859
12,091
12,244
9,607
9,490
12,836
14,768
13,619
11,848
9,405
3,221
1,222
809
1,129
3,474
5,250
9,246
9,162
8,058
7,611
8,862
11,086
10,969
12,686
13,739
14,964
14,053
15,445
17,075
15,782
14,374
13,501
13,514
13,061
12,364
9,636
9,154

22,165
25,408
27,230
30,197
18,880
11,421
11,691
9,285
9,203
12,553
14,541
13,400
11,685
9,282
3,155
1,176
759
1,003
3,103
4,853
8,708
8,746
7,626
7,081
8,075
10,226
10,113
11,615
12,547
13,499
12,707
13,650
15,006
13,772
12,192
11,346
11,340
10,833
10,144
7,829
7,192

744
947
1,055
1,625
979
670
553
322
287
283
227
219
163
123
66
46
50
126
371
397
538
416
432
530
787
860
856
1,071
1,192
1,465
1,346
1,795
2,069
2,010
2,182
2,155
2,174
2,228
2,220
1,807
1,962

483.3
668.3
736.3
928.3
457.5
334.0
310.6
203.2
183.3
246.5
182.5
166.7
136.1
100.8
45.3
31.7
30.2
67.3
204.6
234.6
308.1
248.3
259.5
283.3
394.2
462.6
449.4
562.7
615.3
728.3
692.8
938.6
1,090.1
1,213.6
1,352.6
1,329.2
1,321.7
1,385.7
1,265.2
941.0
1,142.1

261.5
303.5
354.2
432.6
215.5
138.5
135.5
102 8
101.9
140 1
132.9
119.9
100.7
80.3
30.2
14.5
11.4
15.7
63.7
93.9
161.4
151.2
131.6
131.9
167.5
211.4
206.4
239.8
267.1
297.6
278.9
327.2
370.1
346.5
321.0
313.6
321.7
321.5
297.9
241.1
231.3

221.8
364.8
382 2
495.7
242.0
195.4
175.1
100 4
81.4
106 4
49.7
46.8
35.4
20.5
15.1
17.1
18.8
51.6
140.9
140.7
146.7
97.1
128.0
151.4
226.6
251.2
243.0
322.9
348.2
430.7
413.9
611.4
720.0
867.1
1,031.6
1,015.6
1,000.0
1,064.1
967.3
699.9
910.8

38.2
37.5
44.3
43.5
40.9
36.9
41.0
36.5
40.3
37.5
35.7
29.9
32.0
35.6
38.0
36.4
36.9
39.8
34.9
36.0
39.9
39.5
40.9
38.2

844
832
1,021
1,003
909
751
810
734
705
768
696
563
689
731
868
823
812
792
689
702
726
815
759
748

651
682
839
833
707
616
646
607
598
614
569
467
545
566
722
643
661
630
537
563
573
600
570
582

193
150
182
170
202
135
164
127
107
154
127
96
144
165T
146
180
151
162
152
139
153
215
189
166

104.5
79.6
88.6
80.1
91.4
74.7
90.3
65.8
58.7
65.4
58.7
83.4
75.0
90.0
84.1
118.8
92.6
91.9
112.7
62.8
73.7
116.4
127.1
96.8

20.4
21.4
26.1
24.8
21.9
18.6
19.2
18.3
19.1
18.6
17.9
14.8
18.1
17.7
23.4
19.7
21.6
19.0
17.8
18.6
17.9
19.2
18.7
19.4

84.1
58.2
62.5
55.3
69.5
56.0
71.1
47.5
39.5
46.8
40.8
68.6
56.9
72.3
60.7
99.1
71.0
72.9
95.0
44.2
55.8
97.2
108.4
77.4

Seasonally adjusted
1968* Jan
Feb

Mar

Apr
May . .
June
July
Aug .
Sept . . .

Oct..

Nov

Dec
1969: Jan

Feb
Mar
Apr

.

May
June
July

Aug

Seot
Oct.::....:....:
Nov
. -.
Dec

113.5
114.7
113.8
112.8
112.7
114.5
119.0
119.1
121.2
123.9
123.4
125.3
125.2
125. 8
123.2
123.9
123.1
123.6
124.6
124.1
123.0
123.5
120.5

17,223
18,014
17,974
18,659
18,796
19,197
19,530
20,011
20,986
21,394
21,155
20,292
20,578
22,199
21 353
23,467
23,230
23,711
23,771
22,991
23,141
24,683
22,749

* Commercial and industrial failures only. Excludes failures of banks and railroads and, beginning 1933, of real estate,
insurance, holding, and financial companies, steamship lines, travel agencies, etc.
2 Failure rate per 10,000 listed enterprises.
3Series revised; not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.




268

AGRICULTURE
T A B L E G—79.—Income from agriculture, 1929-69
Income received from farming

Personal income
received by total
farm population

Net to farm
operators

Realized gross

Year or
quarter
From
From
nonTotals
all
farm
farm
sources sources1 sources2

ProducCash tion ex- Exclud- Includreceipts penses ing net ing net
from
inven- inventory
markettory
change change *
ings

Billions of dollars
1929..

._

1930 .
1931.
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
939

Net income per
farm, including
net inventory
change
Current
prices

1957-59
prices5

Dollars

13.9

11.3

7.7

6.3

6.2

945

1,750

9.1
6.4
4.7
5.3
6.4
7.1
8.4
8.9
7.7
7.9

6.9
5.5
4.5
4.4
4.7
5.1
5.6
6.2
5.9
6.3

4.5
2.9
1.9
2.7
3.9
4.6
5.1
5.2
4.2
4.3

4.3
3.3
2.0
2.6
2.9
5.3
43
6.0
4.4
4.4

651
506
304
379
431
775
639
905
668
685

1,302
1 177
822
997
1,002
1,802
1 486
2,011
1,553
1,631

5.4
7.7
7.2
9.0
7.2
7.4

3.2
5.4
4.6
6.2
4.7
4.8

2.2
2.3
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.6

11.5
8.4
6.4
7.1
8.6
9.7
10.8
11.4
10.1
10.6

940
941..
942
943
944.
945
946
947
948. .
949

7.6
10.1
14.1
16.5
16.6
17.2
20.0
21.1
23.8
19.5

4.8
6.8
10.1
12.1
12.2
12.8
15.5
15.8
18.0
13.3

2.8
3.3
3.9
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.6
5.3
5.8
6.2

11.1
13.9
18.8
23.4
24.4
25.8
29.5
34.1
34.7
31.6

8.4
11.1
15.6
19.6
20.5
21.7
24.8
29.6
30.2
27.8

6.9
7.8
10.0
11.6
12.3
13.1
14.5
17.0
18.8
18.0

4.2
6.1
8.8
11.8
12.1
12.8
15.0
17.1
15.9
13.6

4.5
6.5
9.9
11.7
11.7
12.3
15.1
15.4
17.7
12.8

706
1,031
1,588
1,927
1 950
2,063
2,543
2,615
3,044
2,233

1,681
2,291
3,054
3,322
3,197
3,223
3,582
3,151
3,459
2,627

950
951
952
953
954
955
956
957
958
959

20.4
22.7
22.1
19.8
18.4
17.6
17.8
17.7
19.5
18.1

14.1
16.2
15.4
13.4
12.5
11.4
11.2
11.0
12.8
11.0

6.3
6.5
6.7
6.4
5.9
6.2
6.6
6.6
6.7
7.0

32.3
37.1
36.8
35.0
33.6
33.1
34.3
34.0
37.9
37.5

28.5
32.9
32.5
31.0
29.8
29.5
30.4
29.7
33.5
33.5

19.4
22.3
22.6
21.3
21.6
21.9
22.4
23.3
25.2
26.1

12.9
14.8
14.1
13.7
12.0
11.2
11.9
10.7
12.7
11.4

13.7
16.0
15.1
13.1
12.5
11.5
11.4
11.3
13.5
11.5

2,421
2,946
2,896
2,626
2,606
2,463
2,535
2,590
3,189
2,795

2,815
3,134
3,048
2,794
2,772
2,593
2,641
2,616
3,189
2,767

18.7
19.7
20.4
20.6
20.6
23.6
24.9
23.9
24.9
27.1

11.5
12.2
12.3
12.1
11.3
13.5
14.4
13.0
13.1
14.5

72
7.5
8.2
8.5
9.3
10.0
10.5
10.9
11.8
12.6

38.1
39.8
41.3
42.3
42.6
44.9
49.7
49.0
51.1
54.6

34 2
35.1
36.4
37.4
37.2
39.3
43.3
42.7
44.4
47.4

26 4
27.1
28.6
29.7
29.5
30.9
33.4
34.8
36.3
38.6

11.7
12.6
12.6
12.6
13.1
14.0
16.3
14.2
14.8
16.0

12.1
13.0
13.2
13.2
12.3
15.0
16.3
14.7
14.7
16.2

3,049
3,399
3,586
3,708
3,564
4,487
5,019
4,683
4,805
5,468

2,989
3,332
3,482
3,565
3,394
4,192
4,563
4,14^
4,107
4,446

960
961
962.
363
364
365

_ _

967..
968
369*

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
968: 1
II
III
IV

50.0
50.9
51.8
51.9

43.4
44.2
45.0
45.0

35.6
36.1
36.5
37.2

14.4
14.8
15.3
14.7

14.9
14.4
14.9
14.5

4,880
4,710
4,880
4,750

4.21C
4,03C
4.14C
3,99C

969: 1 . . .
II
III
IV v

52.9
55.1
55.3
55.1

46.0
48.2
48.0
47.5

37.9
38.8
38.8
38.9

15.0
16.3
16.5
16.2

15.0
16.5
16.9
16.4

5,050
5,550
5,690
5,520

4,170
4,51(
4,630
4,420

1
Net income to farm operators including net inventory change, less net income of nonresident operators, plus wages
and salaries and other labor income of farm resident workers, less contributions of farm resident operators and workers
to 2
social insurance.
Consists of income received by farm residents from nonfarm sources, such as wages and salaries from nonfarm employment, nonfarm business and professional income, rents from nonfarm real estate, dividends, interest, royalties,
unemployment compensation, and social security payments.
s Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
* Includes net change in inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year.
«Income in current prices divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1957-59 base.

Source: Department
 of Agriculture.
372-111 O—70
18
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

269

TABLE C—80.—Farm production indexes,
11957-59=100]
Livestock and products

Crops
Year

Farm
output*

Hay Food Vege- Fruits
Feed
Total 2 grains and grains tables and
nuts
forage

Cotton

Meat
ToOil
anibacco crops Total 3 mals

Dairy Poultry
prod- and
,
ucts
eggs

1929...

62

73

62

79

68

73

75

120

88

1
3

63

62

75

44

1930...

61
66
64
59
51

69

66

73
92
75
76

14
14
13
11
13

65
66
67
61

63
66
67
70
59

76
78
79
79

7
1

95
89
58
80
63

45

75
76
73
80

113
138
105
105
78

64

74
69
64

74
79
63
47
45

74

73
65
54

56
63
73
56
33

78

61
55
69
67
68

70
59
81
76
75

60
38
67
65
65

82
66
75
81
75

55
54
74
77
63

81
75
82
81
81

90
70
93
84
96

86
101
154
97
96

76
68
91
80
110

21
16
18
22
29

59
63
62
65
70

53
60
58
63

4
1
4
1

78
79
89
83
88

66
71
81
74
78

86
86
93
91
90

69
79
83
72
88

83
84
89
97
92

93
99
98
84
98

102
88
105
93
100

84
73
81
81
113

34
37
56
60
50

7
1

1941...
1942...
1943...
1944...

70
73
82
80
83

7
1
72

78
79
79
81
82

75
84
91
86

76
87
97
88

84
89
92
91
92

1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...

81
84
81
88

93
87
84
84
83

11
1

107
92

94
105
91
97
94

89
106
101
92
98

74
71
97
122
131

114
134
122

87

75
82
63
91
80

92
95

1949—

85
89
85
97
92

54
52
55
67
61

86
83
82
80
85

84
82
81
79
83

95
94
93
90
93

69
68
67
74

1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

86
89
92
93
93

89
91
95
94
93

81
75
79

89
92
90
92
92

86
85
109
100
88

96
89
90
95
93

98
100
97
98
99

71

124
134
111

14
2

135
130
119
130

65
63
63

7
1

88
92
92
93
96

89
95
95
94
98

93
92
92
97
98

78
81
82
84
87

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...

96
97
95
102
103

96
95
93
104
103

86
85
93
101
106

98
94
101
102

96
102
98
102
100

99
103
94
102
104

120
108
89
93
118

17
2
126
96
100
104

78
92
91
111
98

99
99
97
99
104

103
100
96
98
106

99
101
101
100
99

86
94
95
101

97

83
87
82
121
97

1960...
1962...
1963...
1964...

106
107
108
112
111

108
106
107
111
108

109
99
100
108
95

103
102
106
106
107

115
106
98
102
114

102
108
106
106
101

98
102
103
100
101

116
116
121
125
124

112
119
134
135
129

104
121
122
128
128

102
107
108
111
114

103
107
109
114
117

101
103
104
103
105

104
112
112
115
119

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968 ...
1969 P..

114
113
118
120
121

115
111
117
120
121

111
110
124
119
123

112
110
115
114
117

117
118
135
141
130

108
109
112
113
111

106
108
112
109
131

121
78
60
89
82

107
109
114
99
104

153
164
170
192
196

111
114
117
118
118

111
116
120
123
122

103
100
99
98
98

124
132
138
135
139

1931—
1932...
1933—
1934...
1935...

1936—

1937...
1938...

1939—
1940—

1961—

77

72

77
81

82

15
1
114
17
1

44
44
44

44
44

45
48

49
54
62

71
7
1
74

14
0

1 Farm output measures the annual volume of farm production available for eventual human use through sales from
farms or consumption in farm households. Total excludes production of seeds and of feed for horses and mules.
2 Includes production of seeds and of feed for horses and mules and certain items not shown separately.
s Includes certain items not shown separately.
Source: Department of Agriculture.




27O

TABLE C-81.—Farm population, employment, and productivity, 1929—69
Farm population
(April l ) i
Year

Number
(thousands)

As percent of
total
populations

Farm employment
(thousands) s

Total

Family
Hired
workers workers

Farm output

Per
unit of
total
input

Per man-hour

Total

Crops

Livestock
and
products

Index, 1957-59=100
1929..

30,580

25.1

12,763

9,360

3,403

63

28

28

1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..

30,529
30,845
31,388
32,393
32,305

24.8
24.8
25.1
25.8
25.5

12,497
12,745
12,816
12,739
12,627

9,307
9,642
9,922
9,874
9,765

3,190
3,103
2,894
2,865
2,862

1935..
1936..
1937..
19381939..

32,161
31,737
31,266
30,980
30,840

25.3
24.8
24.2
23.8
23.5

12,733
12,331
11,978
11,622
11,338

9,855
9,350
9,054
8,815
8,611

2,878
2,981
2,924
2,807
2,727

1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..

30,547
30,118
28,914
26,186
24,815

23.1
22.6
21.4
19.2
17.9

10,979
10,669
10 504
10,446
10,219

8,300
8,017
7,949
8,010
7,988

2,679
2,652
2,555
2,436
2,231

1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..

24,420
25,403
25,829
24,383
24,194

17.5
18.0
17.9
16.6
16.2

10,000
10,295
10,382
10,363
9,964

7,881
8,106
8,115
8,026
7,712

2,119
2,189
2,267
2,337
2,252

1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..

23,048
21,890
21,748
19,874
19,019

15.2
14.2
13.9
12.5
11.7

9,926
9,546
9,149
8,864
8,651

7,597
7,310
7,005
6,775
6,570

2,329
2,236
2,144
2,089
2,081

1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..

19,078
18,712
17,656
17,128
16,592

11.5
11.1
10.3
9.8
9.4

8,381
7,853
7,600
7,503
7,342

6,345
5,900
5,660
5,521
5,390

2,036
1,953
1,940
1,982
1,952

I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..

15,635
14,803
14,313
13,367
12,954

8.7
8.1
7.7
7.1
6.7

7,057
6,919
6,700
6,518
6,110

5,172
5,029
4,873
4,738
4,506

1,885
1,890
*., 827
,780
,604

1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969 v.

12,363
11,595
10,875
10,454
10,300

6.4
5.9
5.4
5.2
5.1

5,610
5,214
4,903
4,746
4,582

4,128
3,854
3,650
3,532
3,429

,482
,360
,253
,213
,153

63
69
69
65
5
9
69
62
73
74
72
72
75
82
79
82
82
85
82
88
86
85
86
89
90
9
1
94
96
96
103
11
0
105
16
0
17
0
108
107
110
16
0
108
108
18
0

28
30
30
28
27
31
29
33
35
35
36
39
42
42
44
46
49
50
56
57
6
1
62
68
71
74
80
86
91
13
0
16
0
115
122
19
2
138
144
16
5
164
174
182
13
8

27
30
30
27
27
31
28
33
35
34
37
39
43
4
1
44
46
50
50
57
57
63
61
67
69
73
77
83
90
15
0
105
115
118
124
12
3
135
11
5
154
162
170
168

48
47
47
47
46
43
44
46
46
48
50
50
5
1
56
58
5
6
58
5
9
61
62
66
68
72
74
76
80
85
89
92
100
108
13
1
123
130
140
152
19
5
170
13
8
193
198

iFarm population as defined by Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce, i.e., civilian population
n
o ocuptin
living on farms, regardless of occupation..
l population of United States as of July 1 including Armed Forces abroad.
3 Includes persons doing farm work on all farms. These data, published by the Department of Agriculture, Statistical
Th d t
b l i h d b th
Reporting Service, diff f
S i
differ from tho on agricultural employment by the Department of Labor (see Table C-22) because of
those
giclt
differences in the method of approach, in concepts of employment, and in time of month for which the data are collected.
feec
th m o d
approac
See monthly report on "Farm Labor.
* Computed from variable weights for individual crops produced each year.
CAA

m A nth I if r*iwyt\r+ An

"Carm

I «Knr

"

Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census).




271

TABLE G-82.—Indexes of prices received and prices paid byfarmers, and parity ratio, 1929-69
{1957-59=1001
Prices received by farmers
Livestock and products

Crops
Year or month

AH
farm
prodAll
Food
ucts i crops* grains

Feed grains
" and hay
Total

Cotton

Tobacco

Feed
grains

Oilbearing
crops

Aii
livestock
and
products i

Meat
animals

Dairy
products

Poultry
and
eggs

1929

61

61

55

74

77

57

35

62

62

50

102

1930..

52
36
27
29
37
45
47
51
40
39

52
34
26
32
44
46
49
53
36
37

44
27
21
31
43
46
51
57
35
34

67
46
31
36
60
68
65
79
45
46

68
44
28
36
60
70
68
84
45
44

40
24
19
26
39
38
38
36
27
28

29
20
18
22
32
35
33
41
36
31

48
32
19
25
45
55
52
56
42
42

52
38
28
27
32
44
46
49
43
41

43
30
20
19
22
38
38
42
37
36

81
62
51
47
56
74
73
70
69
61

42
51
66
80
82
86
98
114
119
103

41
48
65
84
89
91
102
118
114
100

40
46
57
70
78
81
95
128
118
103

54
58
72
96
108
106
127
161
162
112

54
58
73
97
109
104
131
171
170
109

32
43
60
64
66
69
91
105
104
94

28
32
51
66
72
74
78
77
78
82

45
60
80
88
97
100
114
158
153
106

42
53
66
77
76
82
94
111
122
106

35
46
60
66
62
67
81
107
117
101

104
106
117
98

62
77
96
121
312
126
127
141
153
140

1959

107
125
119
105
102
96
95
97
104
99

104
119
120
108
108
104
105
101
100
99

106
115
116
111
110
107
106
106
98
96

122
143
147
130
128
116
115
105
97
98

123
147
150
132
130
116
116
105
97
98

108
129
119
102
105
104
103
101
97
102

83
90
89
89
91
90
93
96
100
104

120
148
129
122
133
109
111
106
98
96

108
130
119
104
97
90
88
94
106
100

110
133
115
94
92
80
76
89
109
102

97
112
118
104
96
96
99
101
99
100

118
144
130
140
113
121
112
102
108
90

1960...
1961
1962
1963
1.
1964....
1965......
1966
1967
1968
1969

99
99
101
100
98
103
110
105
108
114

100
102
104
107
107
104
106
101
103
100

96
99
107
106
90
77
87
84
76
73

96
95
98
104
105
110
114
110
100
105

94
94
96
102
103
108
112
108
97
102

97
100
104
104
100
94
82
73
74
66

103
109
109
102
101
106
114
114
117
123

93
112
108
113
112
116
128
121
115
110

98
98
99
95
91
101
113
107
112
125

96
97
101
94
88
104
116
109
112
130

101
101
99
99
100
102
115
119
124
129

101
92
92
92
90
92
102
84
90
102

105
107
108
108
108
108

103
103
104
105
108
103

80
82
82
79
79
74

102
104
104
103
104
103

101
101
101
102
101

73
66
66
65
70
69

115
116
116
116
116
116

117
119
118
118
118
118

107
109
110
109
109
111

106
111
113
113
113
115

124
122
120
119
119
117

84
84
84
81
78
85

108
108
111
108
109
108

100
101
103
102
103
100

71
70
71
73
75
73

99
93
95
93
98
100

97
90
92
90
96
97

70
84
85
86
78
70

117
118
119
116
119
120

117
115
111
109
111
112

114
113
116
113
113
115

118
115
114
110
109
111

120
124
128
131
132
131

91
92
105
94
97
103

May 15.
June 15

109
110
112
112
117
117

99
101
102
102
106
103

73
74
74
74
74
71

102
104
103
105
109
109

99
101
99
102
107
107

62
64
66
67
65
69

119
120
120
121
121
121

113
114
113
114
115
114

116
117
119
120
124
128

113
118
122
125
136
142

130
128
126
124
122
121

105
99
101
95
85

July 15
Aug 15.
Sept 15
Octl5_.
Novl5
Dec 15

117
115
114
115
118
118

100
99
96
97
102

67
68
72
74
75
75

107
105
104
104
102
103

106
103
102
101
99
100

70
67
63
70
69
65

122
125
127
126
125
124

114
109
102
102
105
106

129
128
127
127
129
133

138
137
132
130
129
133

124
127
131
136
138
137

101
97
104
102
116
126

1931

1932
1933
1934
1935
1936

.

1937

1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944..
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

1950
1951
1952...
1953

1954
1955
1956
1957
1958

1968: Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
June 15

...

July 15..
Aug 15
Sept 15

Octl5........
Nov 15
Dec 15
1969: Jan 1 5 . . . . . . .
Feb 15.
Mar 15
Apr 1 5 . . . . . . .

See footnotes at end of tabie.




272

TABLE G-82.—Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, and parity ratio, 1929-69—

Continued
[1957-59=100]

Year or month

1929
1930
1931
1932 .
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937—
1938
1939 .
1940
1941
1942—
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948 .
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1968- Jan 15
Feb 15...
Mar 15...
Apr 15...
May 15..
June 15..
July 15 .
Aug 15...
Sept 15..
Octl5
Nov 15...
Dec 15...
1969: Jan 15 .
Feb 15...
Mar 15...
Apr 15...
May 15 .
June 15..
July 15...
Aug 15
Sept 15..
Octl5
Nov 15
Dec 15...

Prices paid by farmers
All
Commodities and service.
items,
interest,
Production items
taxes,
Famand
ily
All
AH
wage items l i v i n g
Motor F a r m
marates
i t e m s produc- Feed
vetion
(parity
hicles c h i n items i
ery
index)
55
52
44
38
37
41
42
42
45
42
42
42
45
52
58
62
65
71
82
89
86
87
96
98
95
95
94
95
98
100
102
102
103
105
107
107
110
114
116
121
127
118
119
120
121
121
121
121
121
122
122
123
123
124
125
126
127
128
128
128
127
128
128
129
129

55
51
44
38
38
43
45
45
48
45
44
45
48
55
61
64
66
72
85
92
88
90
100
100
96
96
95
96
98
101
101
101
101
103
104
104
106
109
11
1
114
119
112
113
113
114
114
114
114
114
115
115
115
116
116
117
118
118
120
120
120
119
120
120
120
121

54
50
43
37
38
43
43
43
45
43
42
42
45
52
58
61
64
71
83
88
85
86
94
95
94
94
95
96
99
100
101
102
102
103
104
105
107
110
113
117
123
115
116
116
117
117
117
118
118
118
119
119
119
120
120
122
122
123
123
123
123
124
124
125
125

56
52
43
38
38
44
46
46
50
47
46
47
50
57
63
66
67
73
85
95
91
94
104
104
97
97
96
95
98
100
102
101
101
103
104
103
105
108
109
111
116
110
111
111
111
112
112
112
111
111
111
112
113
113
114
115
116
117
117
116
116
116
116
117
117

68
61
43
32
37
52
53
55
62
47
47
50
54
66
78
87
86
100
118
125
103
105
118
126
14
1
113
106
103
101
99
100
98
98
100
104
103
104
109
106
102
103
103
104
103
103
103
102
101
99
100
99
101
101
102
102
102
103
104
103
103
103
103
102
102
104

1

36
35
35
34
34
36
37
38
39
42
40
40
42
45
47
51
53
55
63
71
78
78
83
87
86
86
87
89
96
100
104
102
102
105
109
111
113
117
121
128
133

43
43
42
40
39
40
41
42
43
44
43
43
43
46
48
49
49
51
58
67
76
78
83
86
87
87
87
92
96
100
104
107
110
111
113
116
119
124
129
135
142

126

133

129
129

136

128

138

130
130

139

132

140

133
133

143

133

145

135

inter- Taxes3 Wage
ests
rates*

Parity
ratio«

Fertilizer
85
83
75
66
61
69
68
64
67
67
66
64
64
71
76
77
79
79
88
96
98
94
100
102
103
102
101
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
100
100
100
97
94
100
100
100
98
98
98
98
98
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
94
94
94
94
94
93
93
93
93

116
113
108
101
90
80
74
68
64
60
58
56
54
51
46
43
41
40
42
43
45
49
54
59
63
68
74
83
91
100
109
120
131
145
162
182
206
231
255
283
315
283
283
283
283
283
283
283
283
283
283
283
283
315
315
315
315
315
315
315
315
315
315
315
315

56
57
56
51
44
38
36
36
36
38
37
38
38
38
37
37
39
43
48
56
60
65
68
71
74
77
81
87
93
100
107
117
125
132
139
147
156
165
179
192
206
192
192
192
192
192
192
192
192
192
192
192
192
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
206
206

32
30
24
18
15
17
18
20
22
22
22
22
26
34
45
54
62
66
72
76
74
73
81
87
88
88
89
92
96
99
105
109
110
114
116
119
125
135
146
158
174
150
150
150
157
157
157
159
159
159
166
166
166
166
166
166
177
177
177
174
174
174
179
179
179

92
83
67
58
64 66)
75 80)
88 9 s ) )
92 9 5 )
93 9 7 )
78 8 3 )
77 ( 8 5 )
81
93 98)
105 ( 0 9 )
113 (L 1 6 )
108 ( 1 0 )
109 ( 11)
113 L15
115 IB
1
110 1 1
100
101 ( n?)
107 ( 08)
100 ( ( n
i
92 93
89 89
84
83 84
82 85
85 88
81 82
80 (81)
79 (83)
80 83)
78 (81)
76
7 (8?)
7
80 f8fi)
74 (
74 (79)
74 (80)
73 (79)
74 (80)
74 (80)
74 (80)
73 (79)
73 (79)
74 79
74 79
75 81
73 79
73 79
73 79)
72 78)
73 79)
73 79)
73 79)
75 8?)
76 82)
75 (82)
75 (81)
74 (79)
74 (80)
76 (82)
76 82)

on

fan)

Includes items not shown separately.
2 Interest payable per acre on farm real estate debt.
3 Farm real estate taxes payable per acre (levied in preceding year).
* Monthly data are seasonally adjusted.
5
Percentage ratio of prices received for all farm products to parity index, on a 1910-14=100 base. The adjusted parity
ratio (shownFRASER in the table) reflects Government payments made directly to farmers.
Digitized for in parentheses
Source: Department of Agriculture.



273

TABLE

C-83.—Selected measures offarm resources and inputs, 1929-69
Index numbers of inputs (1957-59=100)

ManCrops
harvested
(millions
of
acres) i

Year

1929

_

hours
of
farm
work
(billions)

Total

Farm
real
estate 2

Farm
labor

Mechanical
power
and
machinery

Fertilizer
and
liming
materials

Feed,
seed, and
livestock
purchases 3

Miscellaneous

365

23.2

98

218

92

38

21

27

76

1930...
1931
1932
1933
1934

369
365
371
340
304

22.9
23.4
22.6
22.6
20.2

97
96
93
91
86

216
220
213
212
190

91
89
86
87
86

40
38
35
32
32

21
16
11
12
14

26
23
24
24
24

76
78
79
76
69

1935
1936
1937_ . .
1938
1939

345
323
347
349
331

21.1
20.4
22.1
20.6
20.7

88
89
94
91
94

198
192
208
193
194

88
89
90
91
92

33
35
38
40
40

17
20
24
23
24

23
31
29
30
37

66
68
68
70
72

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944

341
344
348
357
362

20.5
20.0
20.6
20.3
20.2

97
97
100
101
101

192
188
194
191
190

92
92
91
89
88

42
44
48
50
51

28
30
34
38
43

45
46
57
63
64

73
74
75
76
76

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

354
352
355
356
360

18.8
18.1
17.2
16.8
16.2

99
99
99
100
101

177
170
162
158
152

88
91
92
95
95

54
58
64
72
80

45
53
56
57
61

72
69
73
72
69

76
77
78
74
82

1950 .
1951
1952
1953
1954.. .

345
344
349
348
346

15,1
15.2
14.5
14.0
13.3

101
104
103
103
102

142
143
136
131
125

97
98
99
99
100

86
92
96
97
98

68
73
80
83
88

72
80
81
80
82

85
88
88
91
91

1955
1956.
1957
1958
1959

340
324
324
324v
324

12.8
12.0
11.1
10.5
10.3

102
101
99
99
102

120
113
104
99
97

100
99
100
100
100

99
99
100
99
101

90
91
94
97
109

86
91
93
101
106

94
98
95
100
105

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

324
303
295
300
301

9.8
9.4
9.0
8.7
8.2

101
101
101
104
104

92
88
84
81
77

101
101
103
104
106

104
101
100
104
102

111
117
125
141
155

109
111
117
123
126

106
109
113
117
120

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 P.

298
295
308
303

7.8
7.4
7.3
7.0
7.0

104
107
109
111
112

73
69
68
66
66

106
107
108
107
107

105
110
112
114
115

162
182
203
214
217

127
136
139
143

120
123
127
130
134

294

* Acreage harvested (excluding duplication) plus acreages in fruits, tree nuts, and farm gardens.
2 Includes service buildings and improvements on land.
3 Nonfarm portion of feed, seed, and livestock purchases.
Source: Department of Agriculture.




274

17
4

TABLE C-84.—Comparative balance sheet of agriculture, 1929-70
[Billions of dollars]
Assets

Claims

Other physical assets
Beginning of
year

MaHousechinhold
Real
DeTotal estate
ery
Live- and Crops 2 equip- posits
ment
and
stock i motor
and
curfurnish- rency
vehiings
cles

1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934.

Financial assets

48.0

1935
1936
1937
1938
1939

6.6

47.9
43.7
37.2
30 8
32.2

3.4
3.3
3.0
2.5
2.2

3.5
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1

9.8

3.2

6.5
4.9
3.6
3.0
3.2

33 3
34.3
35.2
35.2
34.1

68.5

ProReal
Invest- Total estate Other prietors'
U.S.
ment
debt debt equisavings in coties
bonds operatives

2.2
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.2

2.5

4.0

3.6

0.6

68.5

9.6
9.4
91
8.5
7.7

5.0

53.9

7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
68

1940
1941
1942
1943
1944

52.9
55.0
62.9
73.7
84.6

33.6
34.4
37.5
41.6
48.2

5.1
5.3
7.1
9.6
9.7

3.1
3.3
4.0
4.9
5.4

2.7
3.0
3.8
5.1
6.1

4.2
4.2
4.9
5.0
5.3

3.2
3.5
4.2
5.4
6.6

0.2
.4
.5
1.1
2.2

.8
.9
.9
1.0
1.1

52.9
55.0
62.9
73.7
84.6

6.6
6.5
6.4
6.0
5.4

3.4
3.9
4.1
4.0
3.5

42.9
44.6
52.4
63.7
75.7

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

94.2
103.5
116.4
127.9
134.9

53.9
61.0
68.5
73.7
76.6

9.0
9.7
11.9
13.3
14.4

6.5
5.4
5.3
7.4
10.1

6.7
6.3
7.1
9.0
8.6

5.6
6.1
7.7
8.5
9.1

7.9
9.4
10.2
9.9
9.6

3.4
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.6

1.2
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.9

94.2
103.5
116.4
127.9\
134.9

4.9
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3

3.4
3.2
3.6
4.2
6.1

85.9
95.5
107.9
118.6
173.5

1950.........
1951
1952_.
1953
1954

132.5
151.5
167.0
164.3
161.2

75.3
86.6
95.1
96.5
95.0

12.9
17.1
19.5
14.8
11.7

12.2
14.1
16.7
17.4
18.4

7.6
7.9
8.8
9.0
9.2

8.6
9.7
10.3
9.9
9.9

9.1
9.1
9.4
9.4
9.4

4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.7

2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9

132.5
151.5
167.0
164.3
161.2

5.6
6.1
6.7
7.2
7.7

6.8
7.0
8.0
8.9
9.2

120.1
138.4
152.3
148.?
144.3

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

165.1
169.6
178.0
185.8
202.2

98 2
102.9
110 4
115.9
124.4

11.2
10.6
11.0
13.9
17.7

18.6
19.3
20.3
20.2
21.8

9.6
8.3
8.3
7.6
9.3

10.0
10.5
10.0
9.9
9.8

9.4
9.5
9.4
9.5
10.0

5.0
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.2

3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
4.0

165.1
169.6
178.0
185.8
202.2

8.2
9.0
9.8
10.4
11.1

9.4
9.8
9.6
10.0
12.5

147.5
150.8
158.6
165.4
178.6

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

203.1
204.0
212.9
221.0
229.8

130.2
131 7
138.0
143 8
152.1

15.2
15.6
16.4
17.3
15.8

22.2
21.8
22.3
22.7
24.1

7.7
8.0
8.8
9.3
9.8

9.6
8 9
9.1
90
8.9

9.2
8.7
8.8
9.2
9.2

4.7
4.6*
4.5
4.4
4.2

4.3
4.7
5.0
5.3
5.7

203.1
204.0
212.9
221.0
229.8

12.1 12.7
12 8 13.4
13.9 14.8
15.2 16.5
16.8 18.1

178.2
177.8
184.2
189.2
194.«

1965
1966
1967
1968 _
1969..
1970 v

238.5
256.0
269.9
283.4
298.0
307.1

160.9
172.5
182.5
193.1
202.6
208.6

14.5
17.5
18.9
18.8
20.1

25.5
9.2
27.1
9.7
28.9
10.0
9.6
31.1
32.6
10.5
74.7

8.6
8.6
8.4
8.7
9.1

9.6
10.0
10.3
10.9
11.5

6.0
6.5
7.0
7.4
7.8

238. 5
256.0
269.9
283.4
298.0
307.1

18.9
21.2
23.3
25.5
27.1
28.7

201. (
214. ^
224./
233. (
243. J
249. C

4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.8
2318

18.6
20.4
22.4
24.9
27.5
29.4

* Beginning with 1961, horses and mules are excluded.
2 Includes all crops held on farms and crops held off farms by farmers as security for Commodity Credit Corporation
loans. The latter on January 1,1969, totaled $1,188 million.
Source: Department of Agriculture.




275

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
TABLE C-85.—United States balance of payments, 1946-69
[Millions of dollars]
Exports of goods and services

Imports of goods and services

Income on
investments

Year or
quarter

Total

Merchandise^

Military
sales

Other
services

Total

Merchandise i

Military
expenditures

Private

1946
1947
1948
1949

_ 14,792 11,764
_. 19,819 16,097
16,861 13,265
15,834 12,213

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

((888))

Government

751
1,036
1,238
1,297

21
66
102
98

2,256 - 6 , 9 8 5
2,620 —8,202
2,256 —10,343
2,226 —9,616

-5,067
—5,973
—7,557
—6,874

-493
--455
—799
—621

1,484
1,684
1,624
1,658
1,955

109
198
204
252
272

2,097
2,739
2,845
2,564
2,551

—12,001
—15,047
—15,766
—16,546
-15,930

—9,081
—11,176
—10,838
-10,975
—10,353

1

Other
services

Balance
on
goods
and
services

Remittances
and
pensions

—1,425 7,807
—1,774 11,617
—1,987 6,518
—2,121 6,218

-648
—728
—631
—641

—576
—1,270
—2,054
—2,615
—2,642

—2,344
—2,601
—2,874
—2,956
—2,935

1,892
3,817
2,356
532
1,959

-533
—480
—571
—644
—633

. 13,893
18,864
18,122
17,078
17,889

10,203
14,243
13,449
12,412
12,929

1955
1956...
1957
1958
1959

19,948
23,772
26,653
23,217
23,652

14,424
17,556
19,562
16,414
16,458

182
200
161
375
300
302

2,170
2,468
2,612
2,538
2,694

274
194
205
307
349

2,880
3,393
3,899
3,658
3,849

-17,795
—19,627
—20,752
—20,861
-23,342

—11,527
—12,803
—13,291
—12,952
—15,310

—2,901
—2,949
—3,216
—3,435
-3,107

—3,367
—3,875
-4,245
—4,474
-4,925

2,153
4,145
5,901
2,356
310

-597
—690
—729
—745
—815

I960..
1961
1962...
1963
1964

27,488
28,770
30,506
32,601
37,271

19,650
20,107
20,779
22,252
25,478

335
402
656
657
747

3,000
3,561
3,948
4,151
4,930

348
381
471
498
456

4,155
4,318
4,651
5, 043
5,659

—23,355
—23,148
—25,357
-26,617
-28,691

—14,744
—14,519
—16,218
—17,011
—18,647

—3,087
-2,998
—3,105
—2,961
—2,880

—5,523
—5,631
-6,035
-6,647
—7,164

4,133
5,622
5,149
5,984
8,580

—596
—632
-695
—798
—809

1965...
1966
1967
1968.
1969W

39,399
43,360
46,188
50,594
54,275

830 5,384
26,447
29,389
829 5,659
30,681 1,240 6,234
33,598 1,427 6,934
35,489 1,564 7,887

509
593
638
765
951

6,230
6,891
7,394
7,871
8,384

—32,278
—38,081
-41,011
—48,078
—52,405

—21,496
—25,463
—26,821
—32,972
—35,193

—2,952 —7,831
—3,764 —8,854
—4,378 —9,813
—4,530 —10,577
—4,813 —12,399

7,121
—950
5,279
—923
5,177 —1,196
2,516 —1,159
1,869 —1,152

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1967:1
II
III
IV

45,844
45,936
46,308
46,668

30,752 1,332 5,824
30,892 1,340 5,680
956 6,596
30,676
30,404 1,328 6,836

624
640
608
680

7,312
7,384
7,472
7,420

—40,400
—40,132
-40,692
—42,824

—26,640
—25,860
—26,168
—28,616

—4,340 —9,420
- 4 , 3 0 0 —9,972
—4,424 - 1 0 , 1 0 0
—4,448 —9,760

5,444 —944
5,804 —1,464
5,616 - 1 , 3 6 0
3,844 —1,012

1968:1
II
III.--IV....

47,736
50,672
53,376
50,612

31,764
33,580
35,516
33,532

1,220 6,248
1,412 7,072
1,624 7,312
1,456 7,108

836
820
848
560

7,668
7,788
8,076
7,956

-45,852
—47,308
-49,740
—49,408

—31,268
—32,524
—34,264
—33,832

—4,408
—4,464
—4,572
-4,676

1,884
3,364
3,636
1,204

1969:1
II
III

47,652 29,876 1,672 7,544
56,980 38,352 1,336 7,672
58,192 38,240 1,684 8,444

P..

936 7,624 —46,200 —30,288 —4,816 —11,096
932 8,688 —55,768 —38,364 - 4 , 8 3 2 - 1 2 , 5 7 2
984 8,840 —55,248 —36,928 —4,792 —13,528

See footnotes at end of table.




—10,176
—10,320
—10,904
—10,900

276

—1,104
—1,096
-1,300
—1,140

1,452 —1,084
1,212 —1,144
2,944 —1,228

TABLE C-85.—United States balance of payments, 1946-69— Continued
[Millions of dollars]

Year or
quarter

U.S.
Government
grants
and
capital,
net 2

U.S. private capital,
net

Direct
investment

Other
longterm

Shortterm

Balance
Foreign
capital,
net 2

Errors
and
Offiomiscial
Lisions quidity reserve
transbasis s
actions
basis *

Changes in selected liabilities (decrease ( - ) ) «
To foreign
official holders•

Liquid

Nonliquid

Changes
in gold,
convertible currencies,
and
To
IMF
other
gold
foreign
hold- tranche
position
ers?
(increase
()

1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..

-5,293
-6,121
-4,918
-5,649

-230
-749
-721
-660

127
-49
-69

-310
-189
-116
187

-615
-432
-361
44

155
861
1,115
717

993
4,210
817
136

-623
-3,315
-1,736
-266

1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..

-3,640
-3,191
-2,380
-2,055
-1,554

-621
-508
-852
-735
-667

-495
-437
-214
185
-320

-149
-103
-94
167
-635

181
540
52
146
249

-124
354
497
220
60

-3,489
-8
-1,206
-2,184
-1,541

1,758
-33
-415
1,256
480

1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..

-2,211
-2,362
-2,574
-2,587
-1,986

-241
-1,951 - 6 0 3
-2,442 - 8 5 9
-1,181 -1,444
-1,372 - 9 2 6

-191
-517
-276
-311
-77

297
615
545
186
736

371 - 1 , 2 4 2
390
-973
1,012
578
361 -3,365
260 -3,870

182
-869
-1,165
2,292
1,035

1960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..

-2,768
-2,779
-3,013
-3,578
-3,564

-1,674
-1,598
-1,654
-1,976
-2,328

- 8 5 5 -1,349
-1,025 -1,556
-1,227 - 5 4 6
-1,698 - 7 8 5
-2,103 -2,147

364
702
1,026
690
689

-3,403
-1,347
-2,702
-2,011
-1,564

«1,448
9 681
M57
1,673
1,075

250
-39
318

308
1,084
214
620
1,554

2,145
606
1,533
377
171

1965..
1966
1967
1968
1969 10

-3,406
-3,444
-4,223
•3,955
-4,000

-3,468
-3,639
-3,154
-3,025
-4,107

-1,079
753
-256
-415
-1,292 -1,209
-1,082 -1,049
-1,505 - 6 2 3

270 - 5 7 6 - 1 , 3 3 5 -1,289
2,531 - 4 8 9 - 1 , 3 5 7
266
3,360 -1,007 - 3 , 5 4 4 -3,418
8,565 - 6 4 2
168 1,638
3,039 -4,319 -10,795 1,949

-18
-1,595
2,020
-3,099

85
761
1,346
2,341

131
2,384
1,472
3,811

1 222
568
52

-1,156
-1,103
-1,246
-509
-1,118

-3,901
-2,371
-2,204
-2,670
-2,800

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

Quarterly totals unadjusted

1967: L —
II.._
III..
IV...

-4,436
-3,996
•4,168
-4,288

3,468 -1,232 - 1 , 9 8 0 -6,844
4,884 -2,496 - 1 , 3 2 0 -2,876
3,168 - 2 7 6 - 4 , 1 2 4 - 2 8 4
1,924
- 2 4 . - 6 , 7 5 2 -3,668

-80
540
260
1,300

332
589
135
290

-709
90
1,331
760

1,027
-419
-375
-181

1968: l.._.
II...
IIL.
IV...

-548
-4,388
- 7 8 8 6,220 -1,640 - 2 , 2 5 6 -1,516
-4,220 -4,036 - 5 8 8 -1,524 10,068 -1,920
36 6,212
-3,872 -5,048 - 9 1 6 -1,508 7,220 1,236
-556
388
-3,340 -1,132 -2,280 - 3 7 6 10,752 - 2 4 0
3,448 1,468

1,358
2,190
-38
487

363
537
664

721
2,222
1,017
-149

904
-137
-571
-1,076

1,708
-543
2,239

45
-360
-515

3,031
4,654
1,370

-48
-299
-686

-2,868 - 5 5 2
-852
-2,132 -1,004 - 9 2 0
-3,788 -2,068 -1,244
-3,824 -1,544 -1,820

-U

1969: L._- -3,172 -3,712 -1,024 - 6 2 8
II.... -4,620 -4,228 -1,708 -2,072
Ill p. -4,208 -4,380 -1,784
832

6,532 -5,040 - 6 , 6 8 0 4,576
1,420 -4,352 -15,484 4,944
1,164 -3,564 -10,220 -3,672

777

1 Adjusted from customs data for differences in timing and coverage.
2
Includes certain special Government transactions.
3 Equals changes in liquid liabilities to foreign official holders, other foreign holders, and changes in official reserve assets
consisting of gold, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF.
* Equals changes in liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign official holders and changes in official reserve assets consisting of gold, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF.
« Includes short-term official and banking liabilities, foreign holdings of U.S. Government bonds and notes, and certain
nonliquid liabilities to foreign official holders.
« Central banks, governments, and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales to, and gold deposits with,
the United States.
7 Private holders; includes banks and international and regional organizations; excludes IMF.
s Not reported separately.
• Includes change in Treasury liabilities to certain foreign military agencies; excluding these changes, data ($ millions)
are 1,258 (1960), 741 (1961), 918 (1962).
10
Average of the first 3 quarters on a seasonally adjusted annual rates basis.
Note.—Data exclude military grant-aid and U.S. subscriptions to International Monetary Fund.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.




277

TABLE C-86.—-United States merchandise exports and imports, by commodity groups, 1958-69
[Millions of dollars]
Merchandise exports *
Total, including reexports 2

Domestic exports

Year or quarter
Seasonally Unad- Total 2s
adjusted
justed

I9601961—.
1962
1963
1964—.

. .

1965
1966—
1967
1968

General imports *

Total*
Food, Crude
Food, Crude
bever- mate- Manbever- mate- Manufacufacrials
ages,
Seaages,
tured sonally Unad- and to- rials
tured
and to- and goods«
and goods8
bacco fuels «
adjusted bacco fuels«
justed

16,375 16,211 2,688
2,852
16,426 j 16,243
19,659 19,459 3,167
20,226 19,982 I 3,466
20,986 20,717 3,743
22,467 22,182 4,188
25,832 25,479 4,637
26,751 26,408 4,520
29,490 29,054 5,186
31,030 30,646 4,710
34.063 33,626 4,592
37,314 36,770 4,446

1959.

Merchandise imports
Gross
merchandise
trade
surplus,
seasonally
adjusted7

3,052 11,547
2,996 11,179

13,392
15,690

3,550
3,580

4,164
4,615

5,311
7,117

2,983
736

3,942
3,864
3,356
3,775
4,337

12,583
12,784
13,668
14,297
16,529

15,073
14,761
16,464
17,207
18,749

3,392
3,455
3,674
3,863
4,022

4,418
4,334
4,691
4,755
5,029

6,863
6,537
7,649
8,070
9,106

4,275
4,404
4,726
4,864
5,008

17,439
19,218
20,844
23,819
26,764

21,429
25,618
26,889
33,226
36,052

4,013
4,590
4,701
5,365
5,309

5,440
5,718
5,367
6,031
6,391

11,245
14,446
15,756
20,624
23,021

4,586
5,465
4,522
5,260
7,083
5,322
3,872
4,141
837
1,262

1
II
ill
IV..

-- 7,779
7,783
7,772
7,772

7,713
8,012
7,281
8,024

7,618
7,912
7,184
7,933

1,127
1,157
1,131
1,295

1,160
1,208
1,123
1,235

5,229
5,476
4,836
5,303

6,718
6,525
6,605
7,157

6,636
6,606
6,422
7,226

1,213
1,125
1,100
1,264

1,396
1,348
1,260
1,363

3,814
3,858
3,790
4,293

1,061
1,258
1,167
615

1968: 1
11
Ill
IV
19698:1
II
III..
IV

8,028
8,465
9,019
8,581

8,022
8,704
8,425
8,911

7,922
8,596
8,317
8,792

1,195
1,090
1,122
1,185

1,180
1,217
1,174
1,293

5,465
6,182
5,955
6,217

7,867
8,151
8,548
8,527

7,764
8,256
8,457
8,750

1,257
1,308
1,430
1,369

1,443
1,463
1,570
1,555

4,804
5,180
5,142
5,499

161
314
471
54

878
699
1,256 1,389
1,148 1,238
1,342 1,508

5,774
7,264
6,613
7,135

7,654
9,641
9,302
9,443

7,420
9,787
9,195
9,667

1,013
1,478
1,331
1,487

1,479
1,641
1,583
1,692

4,655
6,328
5,931
6,074

-68
218
580
532

1967:

7,586 7,568 7,451
9,859 10,150 10,009
9,882 9,276 9,137
9,975 10,348 10,201

1 Beginning I960, data have been adjusted for comparability with the revised commodity classifications effective in 1965.
2Totals exclude Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military
Assistance Program.
3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
* Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
6
Includes fats and oils.
s Includes machinery, transportation equipment, chemicals, metals, and other manufactures. Export data for these items
include military grant-aid shipments.
7
Exports, excluding military grant-aid, less general imports; quarterly data seasonally adjusted.
s Quarterly data have not been revised and therefore do not add up to annual totals, which are based on more recent
data.
Note.—Data are as reported by the Bureau of the Census adjusted to include silver ore and bullion reported separately
prior to 1969. Export statistics cover all merchandise shipped from the U.S. customs area, except supplies for U.S. Armed
Forces. Export values are f.a.s. port of export and include shipments under Agency for International Development and
Food for Peace programs as well as other private relief shipments. Import values are defined generally as the market
value in the foreign country, excluding the U.S. import duty and transportation costs such as ocean freight and
marine insurance.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of International Commerce.




278

TABLE C-87.—United States merchandise exports and imports, by area, 1963-69
[Millions of dollars]

Area

Exports (including reexports and
special category shipments):
Total
_..
Developed countries
Developing countries
Canada
Other Western Hemisphere.
Western Europe i
Eastern Europe
Asia
Australia and Oceania
Africa
General imports: Total.
Developed countries
Developing countries
Canada
Other Western Hemisphere.
Western Europe i
Eastern Europe
Asia
Australia and Oceania
Africa
Unidentified countries2

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

23,387
15,164
8,057

26,650
17,343
8,967

27,530

30,430

18,366
9,023

20,120
10,112

4,261
3,692
8,198

4,921
4,293
9,222

5,658
4,275
9,257

198
6,740
805
1,348

34,636
23,600
10,821
8,072
5,339
11,132
215
7,582
1,026
1,270

37,988
26,458
11,281
9,138
5,576
12,370
249
8,265
998
1,392

17,207

18,749

140
6,015
956
1,229
21,429

6,679
4,769
9,891

31,622
21,467
9,960
7,172
4,718
10,187
195
7,150
1,018
1,182

25,618

26,889

33,226

36,052

10,832
6,283
3,851
4,063
4,731
81
3,192
504
778
7

11,924
6,711
4,265
4,185
5,209
99
3,620
442
917
12

14,101
7,174

17,632
7,795

18,993
7,709

24,130
8,886

26,465
9,377

4,858
4,399
6,155
137
4,528
455
883
14

6,152
4,737
7,679
179
5,277
596
992
6

7,140
4,662
8,052
177
5,349
583
920
6

9,005
5,143
10,139
198
6,911
697
1,122
11

10,390
5,165
10,140
196
8.276
828
1,045
12

167
5,450
565
1,054

340
5,811
804
1,259

1969 9

1
Includes Finland, Yugoslavia, Greece, and Turkey.
2 Consists of certain low-valued shipments not identified by country.
Note.—Developed countries include Canada, Western Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and the Republic of
South Africa. Developing countries include rest of the world except Communist areas in Eastern Europe and Asia and
unidentified countries.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of International Commerce.




279

TABLE C-88.—United States overseas loans and grants, by type and area,fiscalyears. 1962-69
[Millions of dollars]

Type of program and fiscal
period

Total

Near
East
and
South
Asia

Latin
America

Vietnam

East
Asia

Africa

Europe

Other
and
nonregional

Total economic loans and grants
(net obligations and loan
authorizations):»
1962-68 average
Loans
Grants

4,734
2,545
2,189

1,534
1,154
380

1,191
771
420

361
*
362

520
197
323

388
172
216

258
216
42

1969

3,936
2,023
1,912

781

1,022

358

326

163

555
467

*
358

774

604
178

143
183

152
11

72
441

4,526
3,687

1,534
781

1,191
1,022

361
358

449
665

388
326

146
83

457
453

719
1,080

260
414

290
411

10
5

55
73

31
58

67
113

6

2,239
1,449

718
285

548
290

282
259

227
200

196
108

2
*

268
308

207
301

114
163

24
49

10
5

22
31

18
24

17
27

3
1

404
537

93
68

196
289

27
40

30
58

58
81

383
546

74
113

245
317

25
28

10
24

29
64

1,389
1,212

710
416

162
115

79
99

160
397

140
139

87
2

107
198

68
133

11
20

*

5
14

2
10

22
22

Loans
Grants

498
275

482
35
447
513

Economic loans and grants to
less developed countries, by
program:2
Net obligations and loan
authorizations:
1962-68 average
1969
Repayments and interest:
1962-68 average
1969
Agency for international
Development:
Net obligations and loan
authorizations:
1962-68 average
1969
. Repayments and interest:
1962-68 average
1969
Export-Import Bank long-term
loans:
Loan authorizations:
1962-68 average
1969
Repayments and interest:
1962-68 average
- -1969
Food for Peace:
Obligations:
1962-68 average
1969
Repayments and interest:
1962-68 average
1969
Contributions and Subscriptions
to International Lending Organizations: 3
Obligations:
1962-68 average
1969
Peace Corps and other: 4
Obligations:
1962-68 average
...
1969
Repayments and interest:
1962-68 average
1969

267
320

86

181
300

2C

228
170

13

104
28

35

22

12

29

22

22
34

5
4

10
25

3
1

1

1
2

50
45

54
8
C
3
A

Some data are preliminary.
Countries have been classified "less developed" on the basis of the standard list of less developed countries used
by the Development Assistance Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. On this
basis, "less developed" countries include all countries receiving U.S. loans or grants except the following which are
considered "developed": Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Republic of South Africa, Canada, and all of Europe except
Malta, Spain and Yugoslavia.
3
Includes capital subscriptions and contributions to the inter-American Development Bank, the International Development Association, and the Asian Development Bank.
* Data for certain programs from Department of Commerce (Office of Business Economics).
Source: FRASER
Digitized for Agency for International Development (except as noted).



280

TABLE C-89.—International reserves, 1949, 1953, and 1964-69
[Millions of dollars; end of period]
1969 v
Area and country

1949

1953

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968
September

All countries

45,635

51,780

68,740

70,520

71,980

73,600

76,565

79,615

Developed areas

37,245

41,375

59,015

59,540

60,330

61,145

62,940

December

64,925

United States

26,024

23,458

16,672

15,450

14,882

14,830

15,710

16,743

16,964

United Kingdom

1,752

2,670

2,316

3,004

3,100

2,695

2,422

2,434

2,527

Other Western Europe
Austria.
Belgium
France
Germany.
Italy
Netherlands
Scandinavian countries (Denmark,
Finland, Norway,
and Sweden)
Spain-.:
Switzerland
Other 2

6,455
92
978
580
196

10,500
325
1,144
829
1,773
768
1,232

32,350
1,317
2,222
5,724
7,882
3,824
2,349

33,665
1,311
2,334
6,343
7,429
4,800
2,416

35,040
1,333
2,350
6,733
8,028
4,911
2,448

36,540
1,484
2,590
6,994
8,152
5,463
2,619

35,780
1,510
2,187
4,201
9,948
5,342
2,463

36,450
1,445
2,176
4,006
12,178
5,370
2,365

1,537
2,386
3.833
7,134
5,005
2,529

1,026
150
1,768
1,484

2,380
1,513
3,120
2,017

2,328
1,409
3,244
2,052

2,341
1,205
3,324
2,368

2,236
1,049
3,555
2,396

2,320
1,095
3,932
2,780

1,734
981
3,218
2,977

2,881

3,027

2,693

2,709

3,041

2,949

3,100

2,019

2,152

2,119

2,030

2,906

3,299

3,654

Canada.
Japan
Australia, New Zealand,
and South Africa

3
4

537
&
1,222

1,902

1,197

2,216
833
3,995

0)
1,587

1,953

2,777

2,245

2,494

2,341

3,083

3,052

Less developed areas 3

8,390

10,405

9,725

10,980

11,655

12,460

13,625

14,685

Latin America
Middle East
Other Asia..
Other Africa

2,775
1,475
3,395
4 290

3,400
1,200
3,840
1,800

2,855
2,320
3,070
1,415

3,280
2,675
3,395
1,570

3,180
2,845
3,840
1,725

3,465
3,195
3,975
1,755

3,950
3,230
4,110
2,160

4,175
3,100
4,655
2,580

1 Not available separately.
2 In addition to other Western European countries, includes unpublished gold reserves of Greece and an estimate of
gold to be distributed by the Tripartite Commission for the Restitution of Monetary Gold.
3 Includes unpublished gold holdings not allocable by area.
* Estimate.
Note.—Includes gold holdings, reserve positions in the International Monetary Fund, and foreign exchange of all countries
except U.S.S.R., other Eastern European countries, Communist China, and Cuba (after 1960).
Beginning 1959, when most of the major currencies of the world became convertible, data exclude known holdings of
inconvertible currencies, balances under payments agreements, and the bilateral claims arising from liquidation of the
European Payments Union.
Source: International Monetary Fund, "International Financial Statistics."




28l

TABLE G—90.—United States reserve assets: Gold stock, holdings of convertible foreign currencies,
and reserve position in the International Monetary Fund, 1946-69
[Millions of dollars]
Gold stock i
End of year or month

Total reserve
assets
Total 2

Treasury

Convertible
foreign
currencies 3

Reserve
position in
International
Monetary Fund*

1946
1947
1948
1949

20,706
24,021
25,758
26,024

20,706
22,868
24,399
24,553

20,529
22,754
24,244
24,427

1,153
1,359
1,461

1950
1951
1952.
1953
1954

24,265
24,299
24,714
23,458
22,978

22,820
22,873
23,252
22,091
21,793

22,706
22,695
23,187
22,030
21,713

1,445
1,426
1,462
1,367
1,185

1955
1956
1957......
1958
1959

22,797
23,666
24,832
22,540
21,504

21,753
22,058
22,857
20,582
19,507

21,690
21,949
22,781
20,534
19,456

1,044
1,608
1,975
1,958
1,997

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

19,359
18,753
17,220
16,843
16,672

17,804
16,947
16,057
15,596
15,471

17,767
16,889
15,978
15,513
15,388

116
99
212
432

1,555
1,690
1,064
1,035
769

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

15,450
14,882
14,830
15,710
16,964

U3,806
13,235
12,065
10,892
11,859

5 13,733
13,159
11,982
10,367
10,367

781
1,321
2,345
3,528
2,781

»863
326
420
1,290
2,324

1968: Jan..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June.

14,620
14,790
13,926
13,840
14,348
14,063

12,003
11,900
10,703
10,547
10,468
10,681

11,984
11,882
10,484
10,484
10,384
10,367

2,176
2 235
2,746
2,804
3,386
2,479

441
655
477
489
494
903

July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.

14,366
14,427
14,634
14,427
15,660
15,710

10,676
10,681
10,755
10,788
10,897
10,892

10,367
10,367
10,367
10,367
10 367
10,367

2,773
2,817
2,953
2,703
3,655
3,528

917
929
926
936
1,108
1,290

1969:Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
AprMay..
June..

15,454
15,499
15,758
15,948
16,070
16,057

10,828
10,801
10,836
10,936
11,153
11,153

10,367
10,367
10,367
10,367
10,367
10,367

3,338
3,399
3,601
3,624
3,474
3,355

1,288
1,299
1,321
1,388
1,443
1,549

July_.
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.

15,936
16,195
16,743
16,316
16,000
16,964

11,144
11,154
11,164
11,190
11,171
11,859

10,367
10,367
10,367
10,367
10,367
10,367

3,166
3,399
3,797
3,341
2,865
2,781

1,626
1,642
1,782
1,785
1,964
2,324

-

* Includes gold sojd to the United States by the International Monetary Fund with the right of repurchase which
amounted to $800 million on December 31,1969. Beginning September 1965 also includes gold deposited by the IMF to
mitigate the impact on the U.S. gold stock of purchases by foreign countries for gold subscriptions on increased IMF
quotas. Amount outstanding was $219 million on December 31,1969. The United States has a corresponding gold liability
to the IMF.
2
Includes gold in Exchange Stabilization Fund.
* Includes holdings of Treasury and Federal Reserve System.
4
In accordance with Fund policies the United States has the right to draw foreign currencies equivalent to its reserve
position in the Fund virtually automatically if needed. Under appropriate conditions the United States could draw additional amounts equal to the United States quota.
5
Reserve position includes, and gold stock excludes, $259 million gold subscription to the Fund in June 1965 for a U.S.
quota increase which became effective on February 23, 1966. In figures published by the Fund from June 1965 through
January 1966, this gold subscription was included in the U.S. gold stock and excluded from the reserve position.
Note.—Gold held under earmark at Federal Reserve Banks for foreign and international accounts is not included in
the gold stock of the United States.
Sources: Treasury Department and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




282

TABLE C-91.—Price changes in international trade, 1961-69
11963=1001
1969
Area or commodity class

1961

1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968
Third
quarter
Unit value indexes by area

Developed areas
Total:
Exports
Terms of trade i .

99
100

102
100

103
100

105
100

105
101

104
101

108
102

101
99

100
101

100
100

101
99

104
101

107
101

110
102

111
102

115
103

100
100

97
98

100
100

103
102

103
100

104
102

103
101

104
102

107
104

95
92

United States *
Exports
Terms of trade 1.

100
100

100
100

107
105

107
102

108
105

107
103

108
101

3 109
3 102

100
102

100
100

100
99

101
99

101
100

99
99

98
100

3 101
3102

105

Developing areas
Total:
Exports
Terms of trade iLatin America
Exports
Terms of trade *.
Southern and Eastern Asia •
Exports
Terms of trade i-

103
104

World export price Indexes»
97
92

Foodstuffs
Coffee, tea, and cocoa..
Cereals

99
94

Other agricultural commodities 6

102

Fats, oils, and oilseeds..
Textile fibers
Wool
Rubber

102
93
84
115

Minerals
Metal ores..

100
102
fi

Manufactured goods: Total ...

99

Nonferrous base metals5..

102

96
94
96
99
97
94
91
84
107
99
100
99
100

100
100
100
100
100

ii
ii

Primary commodities: Total.,

100
100
100
100

103
15
0
121
103
12
0
104
102
103
95
102
108
11
0
19
1

13
0
13
0
111
99
13
0
114
92
86
97
104
114
13
0
135

104
15
0

11
0
104

100
12
0

113
104
14
0

111
106

111
102

118
100

96
102
88
77
75

104
105
16
0
16
5

103
109
17
0
12
4

96
100
88
74
73
102
108
16
0
150

102

111
92
90
91

1 Terms of trade indexes are unit value indexes of exports divided by unit value indexes of imports.
2 Includes foreign trade of Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.
3
Data are for second quarter 1969.
* Excludes Japan.
5
Data for manufactured goods are unit value indexes.
• Includes nonfood fish and forest products.
Note.—Data exclude trade of Communist areas in Eastern Europe (except Yugoslavia) and Asia.
Sources: United Nations and Department of Commerce (Bureau of International Commerce).




283

106

99
87
76
107
105
119
109
173

TABLE C—92.—Consumer price indexes in the United States and other major industrial countries,
1957-69
[1SC3-

United
States

Period

Canada

Japan

=100]
France

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

United
Kingdom

91.8
94.4
95.1

91.7
94.1
95.1

79.3
78.9
79.8

69.6
80.1
85.0

88.1
90.0
90.9

83.2
85.5
85.1

88
90
91

86 9
89.5
90.0

1964....

96.6
97.7
98.8
100.0
101.3

96.2
97.1
98.3
100.0
101.8

82.6
87.0
93.0
100.0
103.9

88.1
91.0
95.4
100.0
103.4

92.1
94.3
97.1
100.0
102.3

87.1
88.9
93.1
100.0
105.9

94
95
97
100
106

90.9
94.0
98.0
100 0
103.3

1965
1966
1967
1968
19691

103.0
106.0
109.0
113.6
119.7

104.3
108.2
112.0
116.7
121.7

110.7
116.4
12L.0
127.5
133.8

106.0
108.9
111.8
116.9
123.7

105.8
109.5
111.1
113.1
115.9

110.7
113.3
116.9
118.5
121.0

111
117
121
126
135

108.2
112.4
115.2
120.6
127.0

104 5
105.6
106.6
107.4

106 7
107.9
108.9
109.5

114 9
116.4
116.5
117.6

107.7
108.5
109.2
109.8

108.5
109.8
109.6
110.1

112.7
113.0
113.3
114.2

116
120
118
118

110 4
112.5
112.9
113.8

IV

107.6
108.4
109.5
110.4

109.9
111.5
113.2
113.6

119.8
119.7
120.2
124.1

110.8
111.2
111.9
113.5

110.9
111.5
111.2
110.8

115.9
116.6
117.5
117.9

120
121
122
123

114. 4
115.4
114.8
116.2

1968: L
II
III
IV

111.6
112.8
114.2
115.6

115.0
116 0
117.3
118.5

126.2
126.4
127.4
129.8

115.1
115.8
117.2
119.6

112.8
113.0
112.9
113.8

118.2
118.5
118.3
118.8

124
126
126
128

117.8
120.6
121.3
122.7

1969: 1
||
Ill
IV 2

116.9
119.0
120 7
122.3

119.4
121.6
123 0
123.5

130.4
132.8
135.8
137.3

121 6
123.2
124.6
126.3

115.4
115.9
116 0
116.8

119.7
120.9
122 3

134
136
135
137

125.2
127.2
127.4
128.7

1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963

_..
.

1966: 1
II

Ill
IV

1967: 1
||_
Ill

1
Except for the United States, averages are for January-September for Italy; and January-November for all other countries.
2
October-November average for all countries other than the United States.
Sources: Department of Labor and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.




284











Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102