Full text of Economic Report of the President : 1965
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Together With
THE ANNUAL REPORT
of the
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SH-1464 2M 7-70
Economic Report
of the President
Transmitted to the Congress
January 1965
TOGETHER WITH
THE ANNUAL REPORT
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1965
CONTENTS
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT
Page
PROGRESS TOWARD OUR ECONOMIC GOALS
3
Full Employment
Rapid Growth
Price Stability
Balance of Payments Equilibrium
Consistency of Our Goals
3
4
4
4
5
THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC POLICY
THE UNFINISHED TASKS
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR 1965
5
7
9
Federal Fiscal Policy
Progress Toward Full Employment
9
10
COMBATING RECESSIONS
MONETARY POLICY IN 1965
MAINTAINING WAGE-PRICE STABILITY
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES
,. .
Restoring Balance in Our External Payments
Building a Stronger World Order
MANPOWER POLICIES FOR A FLEXIBLE ECONOMY
U.S. Employment Service
Manpower Training
Private Pension and Welfare Funds
Social Security
Hospital Insurance for the Elderly
Unemployment Insurance
Fair Labor Standards
Poverty
15
16
16
16
16
17
17
AND BEYOND
Natural Resource Development
Strengthening the Economic Base of Communities
Consumer Information
Transportation
Industrial Science and Technology
Agriculture
Education and Health
CONCLUSION
13
14
15
15
15
MAINTAINING INCOMES OF THE DISADVANTAGED
IMPROVING URBAN LIFE
OTHER ECONOMIC POLICIES FOR 1965
10
11
12
13
17
18
18
18
19
19
19
20
20
20
in
ANNUAL
REPORT
OF THE
COUNCIL
OF
ECONOMIC
Pag e
ADVISERS*
INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER
31
1. T H E SUSTAINED EXPANSION OF 1961-64
CHAPTER 2. SUSTAINING PROSPERITY IN 1965
AND BEYOND
35
80
CHAPTER 3. STRENGTHENING THE EFFICIENCY AND FLEXIBILITY OF
THE E C O N O M Y
120
C H A P T E R 4. SOME ECONOMIC TASKS OF THE G R E A T SOCIETY. . . .
A P P E N D I X A.
145
R E P O R T TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF
THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS D U R I N G 1964
171
A P P E N D I X B. STATISTICAL T A B L E S RELATING TO INCOME, E M P L O Y MENT, AND PRODUCTION
183
1
*For a detailed table of contents of the Council s Report, see page 27.
IV
ECONOMIC REPORT
OF THE PRESIDENT
To the Congress of the United States:
I am pleased to report
—that the state of our economy is excellent;
—that the rising tide of our prosperity, drawing new strength from
the 1964 tax cut, is about to enter its fifth consecutive year;
—that, with sound policy measures, we can look forward to uninterrupted and vigorous expansion in the year ahead.
PROGRESS TOWARD OUR ECONOMIC GOALS
FULL EMPLOYMENT
In the year just ended, we have made notable progress toward the
Employment Act's central goal of ". . . useful employment opportunities, including self-employment, for those able, willing, and seeking to
work, and . . . maximum employment, production, and purchasing
power."
Employment:
• Additional jobs for \l/2 million persons have been created in the
past year, bringing the total of new jobs since January 1961 to
4 / 2 million.
• Unemployment dropped from 5.7 percent in 1963 to 5.2 percent
in 1964 and was down to 5.0 percent at year's end.
Production:
• Gross National Product (GNP) advanced strongly from $584
billion in 1963 to $622 billion in 1964.
• Industrial production rose 8 percent in the past twelve months.
Purchasing power:
• The average weekly wage in manufacturing stands at a record
$106.55, a gain of $3.89 from a year ago and of $17.50 from early
1961.
• Average personal income after taxes has reached $2,288 a year—
up 17J/2 percent in four years.
• Corporate profits after taxes have now risen continuously for four
straight years—from a rate of $19j/2 billion early in 1961 to nearly
$32 billion at the end of 1964.
But high levels of employment, production, and purchasing power
cannot rest on a sound base if we are plagued by slow growth, inflation,
or a lack of confidence in the dollar. Since 1946, therefore, we have
come to recognize that the mandate of the Employment Act implies a
series of objectives closely related to the goal of full employment:
—rapid growth,
—price stability, and
—equilibrium in our balance of payments.
RAPID GROWTH
True prosperity means more than the full use of the productive
powers available at any given time. It also means the rapid expansion
of those powers. In the long run, it is only a growth of over-all productive capacity that can swell individual incomes and raise living
standards. Thus, rapid economic growth is clearly an added goal of
economic policy.
• Our gain of $132 billion in GNP since the first quarter of 1961
represents an average growth rate (in constant prices) of 5 percent
a year.
• This contrasts with the average growth rate of 2}4 percent a
year between 1953 and 1960.
Part of our faster gain in the last four years has narrowed the "gap"
that had opened up between our actual output and our potential in
the preceding years of slow expansion. But the growth of our potential
is also speeding up. Estimated at 3J/2 percent a year during most of
the 1950's, it is estimated at 4 percent in the years ahead; and sound
policies can and should raise it above that, even while moving our actual
performance closer to our potential.
PRICE STABILITY
I regard the goal of over-all price stability as fully implied in the
language of the Employment Act of 1946.
We can be proud of our recent record on prices:
• Wholesale prices are essentially unchanged from four years ago,
and from a year ago.
• Consumer prices have inched upward at an average rate of
1.2 percent a year since early 1961, and 1.2 percent in the past
12 months. (Much of this increase probably reflects our inability fully to measure improvements in the quality of consumer
goods and services.)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EQUILIBRIUM
The Employment Act requires that employment policy be "consistent" with "other essential considerations of national policy." Persistent balance of payments deficits in the 1950's reached an annual
average of nearly $4 billion in 1958-60. Deficits of this size threatened
to undermine confidence in the dollar abroad and limited our ability
to pursue, simultaneously, our domestic and overseas objectives.
As a result, restoring and maintaining equilibrium in the U.S. balance
of payments has for some years been recognized as a vital goal of economic policy.
During the past four years
• Our over-all balance of payments position has improved, and
the outflow of our gold has been greatly reduced.
• Our commercial exports have risen more than 25 percent since
1960, bringing our trade surplus to a new postwar record.
• The annual dollar outflow arising from our aid and defense commitments has been cut $1 billion, without impairing programs.
• Our means of financing the deficit have been strengthened,
reducing the gold outflow and helping to build confidence in
the dollar.
CONSISTENCY OF OUR GOALS
Thus, the record of our past four years has been one of simultaneous
advance toward full employment, rapid growth, price stability, and
international balance.
We have proved that with proper policies these goals are not mutually inconsistent. They can be mutually reinforcing.
THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC POLICY
The unparalleled economic achievements of these past four years
have been founded on the imagination, prudence, and skill of our businessmen, workers, investors, farmers, and consumers. In our basically
private economy, gains can come in no other way.
But since 1960 a new factor has emerged to invigorate private efforts.
The vital margin of difference has come from Government policies
which have sustained a steady, but noninflationary, growth of markets.
I believe that 1964 will go down in our economic and political history as the "year of the tax cut."
It was not the first time that taxes were cut, of course, nor will it be
the last time. But it was the first time our Nation cut taxes for the
declared purpose of speeding the advance of the private economy
toward "maximum employment, production, and purchasing power."
And it was done in a period already prosperous by the standard tests
of rising production and incomes. In short, the tax cut was an expression of faith in the American economy:
• It expressed confidence that our economy would translate
higher after-tax incomes and stronger incentives into increased
expenditures in our markets.
• It recognized the presence of untapped productive capacity.
We cut taxes confident that the economy would respond to in-
creased buying by producing more goods at stable prices rather
than the same output at higher prices.
• It insisted on getting full performance from the American
economy.
The promise of the tax cut for 1964 was fulfilled. Production, employment, and incomes jumped ahead. Unemployment was whittled
down steadily.
Since 1960, the balance between budget expenditures and taxes has
been boldly adjusted to the needs of economic growth. We have recognized as self-defeating the effort to balance our budget too quickly in an
economy operating well below its potential. And we have recognized
as fallacious the idea that economic stimulation can come only from a
rapid expansion of Federal spending.
Monetary policy has supported fiscal measures. The supply of credit
has been wisely tailored to the legitimate credit needs of a noninflationary expansion, while care has been taken to avoid the leakage of
short-term funds in response to higher interest rates abroad.
Fiscal and monetary policies to build our prosperity have been
buttressed by measures
—to improve the education, skills, and mobility of our labor force;
—to stimulate investment in new and modern plants and
machinery;
—to expand exports;
—to assist in rebuilding the economic base of communities and
areas that have lagged behind;
—to strengthen our farm economy and support farm income;
—to conserve and develop our natural resources;
—to keep a sound flow of credit moving to home-buyers and small
businesses;
—to redevelop decaying urban areas;
—to strengthen our transportation network; and
—to offer business and labor a guide for sound and noninflationary
price and wage decisions.
Public policies to build a sound prosperity have found their response
in equally constructive private efforts.
• Our businessmen have controlled their costs, increased their
efficiency, and developed new markets at home and abroad.
• They have kept their inventories under tight control and have
prudently geared their plant expansion to rising markets in an
expanding economy.
• Consumers have used rising incomes and tax savings to lift
their standards of living, while adding to their wealth to assure
their future standards of living.
• Workers have realized that wage gains which justify employers'
raising prices vanish when they take their pay envelopes into
the stores—and cost them much when they draw on their
savings.
• Workers and managers have cooperated to facilitate the adoption
of new technology, while solving the human problems it sometimes creates.
As a result of public and private policies, we have come to our present
state of prosperity without pressures or imbalances that would foretell
an early end to our expansion. Instead, we look forward to another
year of sustained and healthy economic growth.
THE UNFINISHED TASKS
Our prosperity is widespread, but it is not complete. Our growth
has been steady, but its permanence is not assured. Our achievements
are great, but our tasks are unfinished.
1. Four years of steadily expanding job opportunities have not
brought us to full employment. Some 3.7 million of our citizens
want work but are unable to find it. Up to 1 million more—"the
hidden unemployed"—would enter the labor force if the unemployment
rate could be brought down just one percentage point.
In the next year, 1.3 million more potential workers will be added
to our labor force, including a net increase of ]A million below the age
of 20.
The more of these 6 million potential workers who find jobs in 1965
—the faster our total output will grow;
—the greater will be the markets for the products of our factories
and farms;
—the larger will be our Federal revenues;
—the greater will be the number of our citizens who know they
are contributing to our society, not subsisting on the contributions of others;
—the smaller will be the number who know the pangs of insecurity, deprivation, even of hunger;
—the larger will be the number of teenagers who feel that society
has a useful purpose for them.
The promise in the Employment Act of job opportunities for all those
able and wanting to work has not yet been fulfilled. We cannot rest
until it is.
2. Four years of vigorous efforts have not yet brought our external
payments into balance. We need to complete that task—and we will.
The stability of the American dollar is central not only to progress
at home but to all our objectives abroad. There can be no question
of our capacity and determination to maintain the gold value of the
dollar at $35 an ounce. The full resources of this Nation are pledged
to that end.
Progress in key sectors of our international payments has been good,
but not enough. Gains in trade and savings in Government overseas
payments have been offset in large measure by larger capital outflows.
As a result our deficit remains far too large. We must and will reduce
and eliminate it.
In the process of restoring external balance we must continue—in
concert with other nations of the free world—to build an international
economic order
—based on maximum freedom of trade and payments,
—in which imbalances in payments, whether surpluses or deficits,
are soundly financed while being effectively eliminated,
—in which no major currency can be undermined by speculative
runs, and
—in which the poorer nations are helped—through investment,
trade, and aid—to raise progressively their living standards toward those of the developed world.
3. Ceaseless change is the hallmark of a progressive and dynamic
economy. No planned economy can have the flexibility and adaptability that flow from the voluntary response of workers, consumers,
and managements to the shifting financial incentives provided by free
markets.
In those activities entrusted to governments—as in those where
private profit provides the spur—the search for efficiency and economy
must never cease.
The American economy is the most efficient and flexible in the world.
But the task of improving its efficiency and flexibility is never done.
4. American prosperity is widely shared. But too many are still
precluded from its benefits by discrimination; by handicaps of illness,
disability, old-age, or family circumstance; by unemployment or low
productivity; by lack of mobility or bargaining power; by failure to
receive the education and training from which they could benefit.
The war against poverty has begun; its prosecution is one of our
most urgent tasks in the years ahead.
5. Our goals for individuals and our Nation extend far beyond mere
affluence. The quality of American life remains a constant concern.
The task of economic policy is to create a prosperous America. Tke
unfinished task of prosperous Americans is to build a Great Society.
Our accomplishments have been many; these tasks remain unfinished:
—to achieve full employment without inflation;
—to restore external equilibrium and defend the dollar;
—to enhance the efficiency and flexibility of our private and public
economies;
—to widen the benefits of prosperity;
—to improve the quality of American life.
8
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR 1965
Approval of the fiscal program I have recommended means that
GNP in 1965 should expand over 1964's record level and reach—as the
midpoint of a $10 billion range—$660 billion for the year.
Carried forward by the momentum of last year's gains and fueled by
the continuing stimulus of profits enlarged through tax reduction, private business investment in plant and equipment should grow nearly
as much in 1965 as it did in 1964.
Current rapid gains in sales, and slim stocks in 1964, should produce
a higher rate of production for inventory in 1965.
Residential construction will remain high.
State and local governments will continue to enlarge their buying.
Consumers' confidence is strong. They will respond to rising earnings, higher social security benefits, and a cut in excise taxes by lifting
their purchases, thereby providing a market for a full two-thirds of
our expected over-all gain in production.
FEDERAL FISCAL POLICY
Private demand will be strong in 1965. It will be further sustained
by Federal fiscal measures.
The 1966 Budget Message outlines my fiscal philosophy. We have
four priorities:
—to strengthen our national defense;
—to meet our pressing human needs;
—to maximize the efficiency of Government operations;
—to sustain the advance of our Nation's economy.
In these priorities lies the key to our whole strategy of attack on waste:
—the waste of lives and property and progress which is the
cost of war;
—the waste of human potential and self-respect which is the cost
of poverty and lack of opportunity;
—the waste of excessive Government personnel, obsolete installations, and outmoded public services which is the cost of inefficient Government;
—the waste of men and facilities and resources which is the cost
of economic stagnation.
Purposeful expenditures, stimulative tax reduction, and economy in
Government operations are the three weapons which, if used effectively,
can relieve our society of the costs and consequences of waste.
Carrying out these principles, I have submitted a budget which will
once again contribute expansionary force rather than restrictive pressure
on our economy.
As measured by their effects on incomes and production, Federal
expenditures, grants, and transfer payments in calendar 1965 will
exceed by $5 billion their amount in 1964. The largest single part of
this increase will arise from the 7 percent increase in Social Security
payments I have proposed.
The reduction or elimination of many excise taxes (when fully effective, $1.75 billion a year)—partially offset by appropriate new or increased user charges—will accomplish a net tax reduction of nearly
$700 million within calendar year 1965. In addition, another $1
billion reduction in corporate income tax liabilities becomes effective
this year. So does a further $3 billion reduction in personal tax liabilities
(although not in withholding rates).
Should unfavorable developments in the private economy during
1965 unexpectedly make this budgetary stimulus inadequate to maintain a strong pace of expansion, I shall be prepared to consider additional fiscal action.
PROGRESS TOWARD FULL EMPLOYMENT
A GNP of around $660 billion, with expansion throughout the year,
will give us our fifth straight year of substantial economic gains—a
record without peacetime precedent.
The productive powers of our dynamic economy are now expanding so rapidly that a gain of $38 billion will do little more than keep
up with the expansion of our capacity, and will make only modest
inroads into the still too heavy unemployment of our human and
physical resources. But unemployment in 1965 should average less
than the 5.2 percent of 1964.
The road to maximum employment, production, and purchasing
power will not be easily or quickly traveled. And it has no final destination. The challenge of maintaining full employment once reached
will be as urgent and as difficult as reaching it.
COMBATING RECESSIONS
A time of prosperity with no recession in sight is the time to plan our
defenses against future dips in business activity.
/ do not believe recessions are inevitable. Up to now, every past
expansion has ended in recession or depression—usually within three
years from its start. But the vulnerability of an expansion cannot be
determined by the calendar. Imbalance—not old age—is the threat
to sustained advance.
In principle, public measures can head off recessions before they start.
Unforeseen events and mistakes of public or private policy will nonetheless occur. Recessions may be upon us before we recognize their
warning signs.
We can head them off, or greatly moderate their length and force—
if we are able to act promptly.
10
The stimulating force of tax cuts is now generally recognized.
The Congress could reinforce confidence that jobs and markets will
be sustained by insuring that its procedures will permit rapid action on
temporary income tax cuts if recession threatens.
Recessions usually arise from a reduction in the intensity of private
demand for goods and services. At such a time, it may be appropriate
to employ idle or potentially idle resources in sound programs of public
expenditure.
The programs which should be considered for expansion at such
times would be those
—that meet important public needs;
—that are capable of quick acceleration—not just in the assignment of funds but in the hiring of workers and the production
of goods;
—that in any event would have been increased in the next regular
budget, or that are capable of quick and efficient termination
when the need has passed.
MONETARY POLICY IN 1965
As in 1964, an expansionary monetary policy will be tempered by
the urgency of our balance of payments problem. But barring domestic
or international emergency, our monetary and debt-management policies
can serve—as they have since 1960—to accommodate the credit needs
of a noninflationary expansion.
Long-term interest rates, in particular, will continue to be held down
by the vast flow of savings into private financial institutions. Long-term
borrowers now reasonably plan on the essential stability of long-term
interest rates in 1965.
Monetary policy must be free of arbitrary restriction. It must be
prepared to move quickly
—if excessive demand should threaten inflation,
—if an outflow of liquid funds should unexpectedly worsen our
balance of payments.
We expect neither of these in 1965. Rather, we expect a continuation of sound and healthy economic expansion.
The Federal Reserve system must be free to accommodate that expansion—in 1965 and in the years beyond 1965. Such an expansion
needs to be supported by further orderly growth in money and credit.
But this growth, as it is reflected in Federal Reserve note and deposit
liabilities, could easily absorb—within two years or less, and without the
outflow of a single ounce of gold—the present operating margin over the
25 percent "gold cover" required by existing law.
II
Clearly, we should place beyond any doubt the ability of the Federal
Reserve to meet its responsibility for providing an adequate but not
excessive volume of bank reserves.
Clearly, we should place beyond any doubt our ability to use our gold
to make good our pledge to maintain the gold value of the dollar at $35
an ounce with every resource at our command.
/ am requesting the Congress, therefore, to eliminate the arbitrary
requirement that the Federal Reserve Banks maintain a gold certificate
reserve against their deposit liabilities.
The desirability of prompt action does not arise from any sudden
emergency. If required at any time in defense of the dollar, gold could
and would be released from the present requirement under the provisions of existing law.
But we should not permit a provision of law framed for the different
circumstances of an earlier day to raise any questions about our ability
to carry out effective and responsible monetary and credit policies
—for domestic prosperity, with stable prices, and
—for defense of the dollar abroad.
MAINTAINING WAGE-PRICE STABILITY
The remarkable price stability of 1959-63 persisted throughout 1964.
There is good reason to believe that it will continue in 1965.
Yet watchful caution must govern public and private policies in
1965.
Though the margin remains substantial, our economy is now closer
to full utilization than at any time since 1957. Despite the general
moderation of labor settlements and the general restraint by pricemakers in industries that have price discretion, there have been disturbing exceptions. Moreover, temporary and accidental factors—
such as those that affected some nonferrous metals in 1964—could
spark price increases in another sector of our economy in the year ahead.
Individual prices will have to rise, where productivity gains are
small or materials costs go up. But these should be balanced by price
cuts elsewhere.
We can no more afford inflation in 1965 than we could in 1964.
Our balance of payments problem is not solved. We have only
recently begun to regain the competitive edge in international markets
that was impaired by the inflation of the mid-1950's.
Federal budgetary and monetary policies must not permit a generalized excess of demand over supply to pull up prices. But, equally,
private price and wage decisions must not push up costs and prices.
12
/ count on the sense of public responsibility of our labor leaders and
our industrial leaders to do their full part to protect and extend our
price stability.
Reasonable price and wage guideposts are again spelled out in the
accompanying Report of the Council of Economic Advisers. / commend
them to the attention of the American public and of leaders of labor
and industry.
With the help of the Council and of other agencies of Government, I
intend
—to maintain a close watch on wage and price developments;
—to draw public attention to those private actions which threaten
the public interest;
—to ask, as I have recently done in the case of steel prices, for
special, detailed analysis of price or wage increases in key sectors
of the economy; and
—to oppose legislative enactments that threaten to raise costs and
prices and to support those that will stabilize or reduce costs
and prices.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES
RESTORING BALANCE IN OUR EXTERNAL PAYMENTS
Continued cost and price stability is fundamental to correction of
our balance of payments deficit—it is the foundation on which we must
build our entire effort to achieve external equilibrium. In addition, we
must continue and intensify more specific attacks on the problem.
• We are continuously reviewing our aid and defense programs to
achieve the maximum savings in dollar expenditures abroad.
Our aid programs must remain closely tied to exports of U.S.
goods and services, until the balance of payments problem has
been eliminated.
• We must continue and strengthen measures to promote U.S.
exports.
• We will be alert to restrain any persistent outflow of short-term
private funds in response to relatively high short-term interest
rates in foreign countries.
• To increase our ability to attract foreign investment in U.S.
securities, legislation will be proposed to improve the tax treatment of such investments.
More broadly, we need to reassess the adequacy of existing programs
to deal with the balance of payments problem. The results of this
reassessment will be set forth in a separate message to the Congress.
757-081 O—©5
2
*3
BUILDING A STRONGER WORLD ORDER
Through expanded trade: In the Kennedy Round of trade negotiations now underway at Geneva, we are working intensively for a broad
liberalization of world trade in both industrial and agricultural
products.
A successful outcome can be of crucial benefit not only to the industrialized countries but also to the developing countries of the world.
Through improved international monetary arrangements: We take
pride in our leadership in the building of the postwar system of international monetary cooperation. We find reassurance in the wholehearted resolve of the industrialized countries of the free world to avoid
repeating the costly mistakes of the 1920's and 1930's. The strength
of international monetary cooperation was demonstrated dramatically
in 1964 in repelling speculative attacks on the Italian lira and the
British pound.
We will continue to pursue orderly growth at home and abroad
—on the basis of stable convertible currencies and the fixed $35
price for gold;
—through a wide network of bilateral and multilateral credit
arrangements; and
—through frequent consultation between countries.
But we still have more to learn about
—how best to share the burden of making necessary mutual
adjustments when countries run persistent deficits or surpluses
in their balances of payments, and
—how best to meet the need of ensuring orderly growth in world
liquidity tofinanceexpanding world trade.
We will continue to seek agreement on these problems with other
countries; we are confident that effective solutions will be found. We
look toward early agreement on an increase in the resources of the
International Monetary Fund, which will further strengthen the international monetary system.
Through helping to raise incomes in less developed countries: U.S.
foreign assistance programs further three basic American aims. By
helping to advance the economic growth of the less developed nations,
they
—create the kind of world in which peace and freedom are most
likely to flourish;
—bring closer a world economic order in which all nations will be
strong partners;
—simultaneously, give a major stimulus to U.S. exports both in the
present through direct financing of U.S. goods and services and
for the future by developing the recipient's ability to buy and
his preference for American products.
14
MANPOWER POLICIES FOR A FLEXIBLE ECONOMY
Fiscal and monetary measures have the primary responsibility for
furnishing "employment opportunities for those able, willing, and seeking to work."
But the creation of jobs is not enough. Job opportunities and men
must be matched. Workers must have the requisite skills—and the
opportunity to gain new skills if advancing technology finds less use
for their old ones.
To a substantial degree, strong demand for labor will bring workers
and jobs together. But sole reliance on strong demand would place
price stability under an unnecessary threat. And the time needed for
such adjustments would place unnecessary burdens upon displaced
employees and new entrants to the labor market.
To reduce human costs, raise productivity, and make possible full
employment without inflation, this Administration is developing an
active manpower policy.
U.S. EMPLOYMENT SERVICE
An efficient labor market brings together employers and potential
employees—matching workers and jobs over time, space, and occupations. Most man-job matches occur unassisted, but a strong FederalState employment service can make the difference between an effective
and an inefficient labor market.
The efficiency of the U.S. Employment Service has improved in
recent years, but further strengthening is required for truly efficient
labor markets. My budget provides for that strengthening.
MANPOWER TRAINING
The Manpower Development and Training Act was passed in 1962
and broadened in 1963. Its purpose is to supply skills to those
who, whether for lack of wisdom or lack of opportunity, failed to
acquire them earlier. It aims to make possible retraining of those who
would otherwise bear the burdens of society's technological progress.
We intend to improve and expand our training programs in 1965.
We will give special attention to basic training and basic education for
those at the bottom of the ladder of skills.
PRIVATE PENSION AND WELFARE FUNDS
Spectacular growth has occurred in postwar years in private pension
and welfare plans. They provide a vital supplement to public programs to assist older workers, disabled workers, and workers who lose
their jobs. But potential problems have become evident.
Failure to give the worker a right to his pension if he should change his
employment hampers labor mobility. And in some instances, absence of
full funding has imperiled the retirement incomes of the affected workers.
I have asked several groups to study these and other difficult problems. / am now releasing—for consideration by unions, employers,
the public, and the Congress—the Report of my Committee on Corporate Pension Funds and Other Private Retirement and Welfare
Programs.
MAINTAINING INCOMES OF THE DISADVANTAGED
Not every person can share fully in the fruits of our progress through
his own daily productive effort. Large numbers of our retired and
handicapped cannot work. Many workers still suffer unemployment.
Even in prosperous times, some receive wages below our standards.
And the poverty of one-fifth of our families traps too many of our children in lives without opportunity or aspiration.
I am proposing new programs and extensions of old ones to meet
more effectively our obligation to the weak and disadvantaged.
SOCIAL SECURITY
Cash benefits must be increased to provide adequate support for the
aged. / urge a 7 percent rise in Social Security benefits this year, retroactive to January 1, financed by an increase next January in the covered wage base and in the combined employer and employee contribution rates. Increases in public assistance payments to the needy aged,
blind and disabled, and to needy children, should be enacted. We
must continue to maintain the financial soundness of the social security
system, at the same time taking care that its financing avoids the "fiscal
drag" which could endanger our prosperity.
HOSPITAL INSURANCE FOR THE ELDERLY
We can and must assure improved health services for the aged whose
health needs are greatest and whose financial resources most meager.
A hospital insurance program for the elderly, financed by contributions
through social security, will provide protection against the costs of hospital and post-hospital extended care, home health visits, and outpatient
diagnostic services. / urge the Congress to act promptly on this program.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
Improved protection against the risks of unemployment is long overdue. A comprehensive program requires that
—coverage be extended to additional workers under our FederalState unemployment insurance program;
—benefits be kept in step with wages;
16
—the duration of benefits be extended beyond the 26 weeks now
authorized in most States for workers with a firm and substantial
labor force attachment.
/ shall recommend such a program.
FAIR LABOR STANDARDS
A large number of workers still lack the protection of Federal minimum standards.
/ shall recommend coverage for an additional 2 million workers under
the Fair Labor Standards Act.
POVERTY
America's efforts to eradicate poverty are quickly taking shape under
the Office of Economic Opportunity. Programs of community action,
education, training, and work experience will strike at the roots of
poverty, especially among our youth. / urge a doubling of appropriations to intensify these efforts.
IMPROVING URBAN LIFE
Our cities are the homes of more than two-thirds of the American
people.
• They must be communities where men can find security, significance, and fulfillment.
• They must be centers of economic strength and commercial
vitality.
• They must be seats of learning, sources of culture, and centers
of scientific achievement.
• They must challenge and release the full productive and
creative capacities of the people.
Our first task is to recognize that the city and its suburbs—often,
indeed, several cities and their suburbs—constitute a single metropolitan
area.
The Federal Government has neither wish nor power to abolish the
legal boundaries that divide an urban area. But the Federal Government helps cities because many aspects of urban life pose problems
of national as well as local concern. We can increasingly require—as a
condition for Federal help—that the separate units work and plan
together to assure that Federal aid and federally financed facilities will
be used effectively in improving urban life.
We must increasingly help our cities to
—develop unified metropolitan transportation systems;
—supply adequate water and sewage service;
—provide community facilities and neighborhood centers;
17
—build adequate housing for low- and middle-income families;
—promote more efficient land use;
—set aside open spaces and develop new suburbs;
—replace or rehabilitate slum areas; and
—improve housing codes and code enforcement.
We need a new Department of Housing and Urban Development
to strengthen our ability to cope with these problems.
/ shall shortly send to the Congress a message containing my
recommendations.
OTHER ECONOMIC POLICIES FOR 1965 AND BEYOND
NATURAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
America owes her greatness partly to the large public and private
investments made to develop her abundant natural resources. Rapid
growth and urbanization require intensified efforts to solve old problems
and imaginative approaches to new challenges.
Especially requiring study and action are
• The protection of our environment. We need to strengthen our
attack on air, water, and soil pollution.
• Water resource programs. We must improve the efficiency, coordination, and comprehensiveness of our major water resource
development programs. More realistic charges and user fees
will improve equity and strengthen private incentives for efficient
use.
• Research programs. We must find new and more efficient ways
of utilizing available resources. I have recommended increased
research efforts in several areas, including the desalting of sea
water.
• Recreational resources. Urbanization, higher incomes, and
expanded leisure time pose new demands for outdoor recreation.
New and improved facilities are needed, particularly near metropolitan areas.
STRENGTHENING THE ECONOMIC BASE OF COMMUNITIES
In 1961, the Congress recognized the special needs of distressed areas
by passing the Area Redevelopment Act. Since then, hundreds of
urban and rural communities have been strengthened by grants, loans,
technical assistance, and training programs to help to build or restore
their economic base. This program has helped distressed areas to
benefit more fully from sustained prosperity.
Redirection of this program can benefit from the experience of the
last four years. Future assistance should be sufficient to make a signif-
18
icant impact on the economic growth of the communities assisted. Integrated development plans must be devised for larger economic areas
with high promise of future viability, and communities must be helped to
mobilize public and private leadership in an attack on local blight
and depression.
/ shall propose measures to achieve these goals, through an extension
and strengthening of the Area Redevelopment Act.
I also urge the Congress to enact the special program to assist in
redeveloping the Appalachian region.
CONSUMER INFORMATION
Informed consumer choice among increasingly varied and complex
products requires frank, honest information concerning quantity,
quality, and prices. Truth-in-packaging will help to protect consumers
against product misrepresentation. Truth-in-lending will help consumers more easily to compare the costs of alternative credit sources.
TRANSPORTATION
The technological revolution in transportation, and large public and
private investments in our highways, railroads, airways, and waterways,
have greatly altered the nature of our transportation system. Our
national transportation policy should be revised to reflect these changes,
particularly by placing greater emphasis on competition and private
initiative in interstate transportation. Fair and adequate user fees for
our inland waterways, our Federal airways, and our Federal-aid highways
will improve equity and efficiency in the use of these public resources.
As part of a well-rounded system of moving goods and people, there
is urgent need and opportunity for high-speed, comfortable, and
economical passenger transportation on densely traveled routes, such as
in the Northeast corridor.
/ am recommending an enlarged program of research and demonstration projects to determine the best and cheapest way to meet this
need.
INDUSTRIAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
The Department of Commerce
—has proposed a State Technical Services Program to enable States
to join with universities and industry to create new jobs through
wider application of advanced technology;
—is establishing a coordinated system for scientific and technical
data, to reduce unnecessary duplication of research and lower the
costs of obtaining scientific data.
My budget contains funds for these desirable programs.
19
AGRICULTURE
Americans owe much to the efficiency of our farmers. Their independent spirit and productive genius are the envy of the world. We
must continue to assure them the opportunity to earn a fair reward for
their efforts.
/ will transmit to the Congress recommendations for improving the
effectiveness of our expenditures on price and income supports.
Many small farmers cannot expect to earn good incomes from farming. But they—along with other rural Americans—will have an opportunity to share in the fruits of our society through faster economic growth,
better education and training opportunities, and improved health and
community facilities. We must extend the benefits of American prosperity to all our people, including those in rural America.
EDUCATION AND HEALTH
In my message on education I proposed a program to insure an
opportunity to every American child to develop to the full his mind and
his skills.
In my message on health I proposed a massive new attack on diseases
which afflict mankind.
We value education and health for their direct benefits to human
understanding and happiness. But they also yield major economic
benefits.
Investments in human resources are among our most profitable investments. Such investments raise individual productivity and incomes, with benefits to our whole society. They raise our rate of
economic growth, increase our economy's efficiency and flexibility, and
form the cornerstone of our attack on poverty.
/ believe that the Congress will find economic as well as human
reasons to support my proposals on education and health.
CONCLUSION
In our economic affairs, as in every other aspect of our lives, ceaseless
change is the one constant.
Revolutionary changes in technology, in forms of economic organization, in commercial relations with our neighbors, in the structure and
education of our labor force converge in our markets. Free choices
in free markets—as always—accommodate these tides of change.
But the adjustments are sometimes slow or imperfect. And our
standards for the performance of our economy are continually on the
rise. No longer will we tolerate widespread involuntary idleness, unnecessary human hardship and misery, the impoverishment of whole
areas, the spoiling of our natural heritage, the human and physical
20
ugliness of our cities, the ravages of the business cycle, or the arbitrary
redistribution of purchasing power through inflation.
But as our standards for the performance of our economy have risen,
so has our ability to cope with our economic problems.
Economic policy has begun to liberate itself from the preconceptions
of an earlier day, and from the bitterness of class or partisan division
that becloud rational discussion and hamper rational action.
Our tools of economic policy are much better tools than existed a
generation ago. We are able to proceed with much greater confidence
and flexibility in seeking effective answers to the changing problems of
our changing economy.
The accomplishments of the past four years are a measure of the
constructive response that can be expected from workers, consumers,
investors, managers, farmers, and merchants to effective public policies
that strive to define and achieve the national interest in
—full employment with stable prices;
—rapid economic growth;
—balance in our external relationships;
—maximum efficiency in our public and private economies.
These perennial challenges to economic policy are not fully mastered;
but we are well on our way to their solution.
As increasingly we do master them, economic policy can more than
ever become the servant of our quest to make American society not only
prosperous but progressive, not only affluent but humane, offering not
only higher incomes but wider opportunities, its people enjoying not only
full employment but fuller lives.
v-t
January 28,1965
21
THE ANNUAL REPORT
OF THE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,
Washington, D.C., January 21,1965.
T H E PRESIDENT:
SIR: The Council of Economic Advisers herewith submits its Annual
Report, January 1965, in accordance with Section 4(c) (2) of the Employment Act of 1946.
Respectfully,
GARDNER ACKLEY,
Chairman.
OTTO ECKSTEIN
ARTHUR M.
OKUN
CONTENTS
Pa£t
Introduction
CHAPTER 1. T H E SUSTAINED EXPANSION OF 1961-64
An Over-All View of the Expansion
The Economy in 1964
Problems Unsolved
The Anatomy of the Expansion
The Dependable Consumer
Investment and Capacity Utilization
Inventories
Residential Construction
Income Shares
Credit
Wages, Prices, and Productivity
Employment and Unemployment
Contribution of Federal Fiscal and Monetary Policies
Fiscal Policy, 1961-64
Revenue Act of 1964 and Its Effects
Monetary Policy in the Expansion
Approaching External Balance
Growth of U.S. Exports
Government Payments Abroad
Capital Markets and Capital Flows
Financing the Deficit
Broadened International Financial Cooperation
CHAPTER 2. SUSTAINING PROSPERITY IN 1965
AND BEYOND
The Gap Between Actual and Potential GNP
Outlook for 1965
Prospects for Gross National Product
Outlook for Prices
Growth Prospects for the Longer Run
Labor Force
Productivity
Private Demand
Policies for Prosperity
Fiscal Policy to Sustain Expansion
Fiscal Policy to Combat Recession
Role of Monetary Policy
27
31
35
35
38
38
39
41
43
44
47
49
51
54
59
61
62
65
66
70
73
75
75
77
78
80
81
85
85
88
91
91
92
92
96
96
101
m
2.—Continued
Wages, Costs, and Prices
International Economic Policies
Balance of Payments: Prospects and Policies.
Trade......
Foreign Aid
International Monetary Arrangements
CHAPTER
.
CHAPTER 3. STRENGTHENING THE EFFICIENCY AND FLEXIBILITY OF
THE ECONOMY
.
Toward a More Productive Use of Our Labor Force
Changes in the Composition of Employment Opportunities
and of the Labor Force
Labor Market Adjustment
Manpower Policy
Competition and Regulation for a Flexible Market Economy. .
Trends in Industrial Structure
..
Policies to Maintain Competitive Markets
Federal Regulation of Economic Activity. .
Consumer Information
,.
Assisting Civilian Technology.
.
Regional Recovery and Industrial Adjustment. . . . .
Area Redevelopment Act. . .
Appalachia
Adjustment Assistance to Prevent Area D e c l i n e . . . . . . . . . .
Efficiency in Government
CHAPTER 4. SOME ECONOMIC TASKS OF THE GREAT SOCIETY
Urbanization of Our Society
Changing Structure of Urban Areas
Problems and Unmet Needs of Urban Areas
Problems and Unmet Needs of Rural Areas
Education
.
Returns to Education. .
Availability of Education
The President's Program for Education
Health.
The State of Our Nation's Health.
Health Programs
Poverty. . . . . . . . . . .
The Record of Progress Against Poverty.
Measures and Characteristics of Poverty
The Attack on Poverty
Equality of Opportunity
Perspectives
28
Page
107
110
110
112
114
115
120
121
122
123
127
131
132
135
135
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
145
.
146
147
148
155
156
157
158
158
159
159
161
161
162
162
166
167
169
APPENDIXES:
A. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of
Economic Advisers During 1964
B. Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, and
Production.
.
List of Tables and Charts
Tables
1. Changes in Selected Measures of Economic Activity During the
Current Expansion
.
.
2. Changes in Gross National Product in the Current Expansion...
3. Expenditures for Manufacturing Plant and Equipment, and
Related Data, 1955-57 and 1961-64.
4. Expansion of Selected Types of Credit in Three Postwar Expansions.
5. Sources and Uses of Corporate Funds in Three Postwar Expansions
6. Changes in Employment, 1961-64
7. United States Balance of Payments, 1960-64
8. Recorded Private United States Capital Outflows, 1960-64
9. Changes in Wholesale Industrial Prices, by Major Commodity
Groups, Fourth Quarter of 1963 to Fourth Quarter of 1964. . .
10. Operating Rates and Backlog of Unfilled Orders in Manufacturing Industries: 1963 and 1964
.. ..
11. Population 20 Years of Age and Over, by Selected Age Groups,
1960 Estimate, and 1965-75 Projections. . . .
12. Changes in Productivity, Wages, and Prices in the Private
Economy Since 1947.
13. Distribution of the Economically Active Civilian Population, by
Major Occupation Group, Selected Years, 1900-64
14. Distribution of Civilian Labor Force 18 to 64 Years of Age, by
Educational Attainment, 1940,1952, and 1964.
15. Unemployment Rates by Major Occupation Group, 1957-64 .
16. Unemployment Rates of Males 18 Years of Age and Over, by
Educational Attainment, Selected Dates, 1952-64
17. Training Taken by Persons in Civilian Labor Force
.
18. Concentration in Selected Industries, 1947 and 1958 . .
'. .
19. Persistence of Poverty, by Selected Family Characteristics,
1962-63
..
20. Changes in Poverty, 1962-63
21. Distribution of AH and Poor Families, by Work Experience of
Family Head, 1963 . . .
..
22. Selected Measures of Discrimination and Inequality of Opportunity, by Race
29
Page
171
183
36
40
44
51
52
59
71
76
89
90
94
109
122
123
126
126
129
134
164
165
166
168
List of Tables and Charts—Continued
Charts
1. Real GNP in Three Postwar Expansions
2. Changes in Gross National Product Since 1961
3. Inventories and Final Sales of Goods in Three Postwar Expansions
4. Wholesale Prices of Industrial Commodities in Three Postwar
Expansions
5. Unfilled Orders for Durable Goods in Three Postwar Expansions
6. Income Shares and Capacity Utilization
7. Compensation, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, and Prices in
Three Postwar Periods
8. Price and Productivity Trends—19 Manufacturing Industries. .
9. Federal Surplus or Deficit: Actual and Full-Employment Estimates—National Income Accounts Basis
10. Selected Interest Rates
11. Free Reserves in Three Postwar Expansions
12. Gross National Product, Actual and Potential, and Unemployment Rate
13. Labor Force Response to Employment
14. Shares of Largest Companies in Manufacturing—As Measured
by Value Added
15. Urban Population in Relation to Total Population
Page
37
41
45
46
47
50
56
58
64
67
68
82
84
133
147
INTRODUCTION
Speaking at the University of Michigan last May, President Johnson
declared that in the time of his listeners
. . . we have the opportunity to move not only toward the rich society and the
powerful society, but upward to the Great Society. The Great Society rests on
abundance and liberty for all. It demands an end to poverty and racial injustice, to
which we are totally committed in our time. But that is just the beginning. The
Great Society is a place where every child can find knowledge to enrich his mind and
to enlarge his talents. It is a place where leisure is a welcome chance to build and
reflect, not a feared cause of boredom and restlessness. It is a place where the city
of man serves not only the needs of the body and the demands of commerce, but
the desire for beauty and the hunger for community.
It is a place where man can renew contact with nature. It is a place which
honors creation for its own sake and for what it adds to the understanding of the
race. It is a place where men are more concerned with the quality of their goals
than the quantity of their goods. . . .
The President's vision extends far beyond the material goals that are the
immediate concern of economic policy. Yet pursuit of our society's human
goals sharpens anew the challenge to economic policy.
These goals require a growing abundance, widely shared. They are not
served by recessions, stagnation, or wasted resources. Maintaining full employment and expanding prosperity with stable prices are tasks long since
assigned to economic policy by the Employment Act of 1946.
A nation which demands an end to poverty cannot permit whole regions,
counties, or neighborhoods to decay. It cannot ignore its children and its
aged, its sick and its handicapped. It cannot let anyone be deprived of
needed medical care because he cannot pay. Economic policy must support human compassion in the attack on poverty.
Education of every human being to his full potential is a central goal.
Workers must be equipped for today's tasks, their children prepared for
tomorrow's. Even more important, all citizens must be able to enjoy and understand—and have the opportunity also to advance and enrich—the cultural, moral, and scientific traditions of their civilization. Economic policy
cannot make men wise, sympathetic, and cultured. But it can find ways
to finance their schools, libraries, museums, and galleries.
The progress of technology has made us an urban society. We would
not turn the clock back if we could. Economic policy cannot make our
cities into places of beauty. But it can make them more efficient. It can
help to provide attractive neighborhoods, clean streets, green parks, fresh
31
air, and pure water. It can help to make travel between cities, within them,
and between them and the countryside fast and efficient. It can help to protect the natural beauty of land and water against the inroads of commerce.
We seek a world in which men, women, and children are healthy in
mind and body. Economists cannot cure the illnesses of man. But they
can devise ways to support hospitals, treatment centers, medical research,
and the spread of the latest knowledge.
Our goal is a free society, where men and women control their own destinies, where they decide for themselves where and how to spend their lives,
their incomes, their time—free from governmental or private coercion. We
seek to make opportunities equally open to all. Economic policy can enlarge freedom by breaking down artificial barriers to mobility and choice,
by expanding the flexibility and responsiveness of production to changing
wants, by encouraging diversity, and by preserving and increasing the rewards to originality and enterprise.
Relating economic policy to broader human goals is not an altogether new
orientation for the Council. Three years ago, it began its Annual Report
with these words:
The Report of the Council of Economic Advisers is a document directed toward
economic problems and national economic policy. It is written in keen awareness that the ultimate goals of the Nation are human goals, and that economics is
merely instrumental to the making of a better life for all Americans. Involuntary unemployment is a sign of economic waste, but the fundamental evil of unemployment
is that it is an affront to human dignity. Expenditures on better education and
better health are investments in future capacity to produce; but even if they were
not, they would be intrinsically desirable because ignorance and illness bar the way
to happiness and security for many of our citizens. Social security and welfare
benefits help to limit the depth of recessions, but their more important function
is to protect human beings from hunger and despair. Statistical tables are to the
economist what test tube and microscope are to the scientist—the tools of the trade;
but for the one as for the other, the ultimate dedication is to the quality of human
life.
Under the Employment Act, the basic duty of the Council of Economic
Advisers is to advise the President on measures to achieve the goals of
"maximum employment, production, and purchasing power." If the economy performs well by the standards of the Act, the general climate will be
hospitable to the many specific activities, public and private, which will
advance our human goals.
In 1964, the United States passed a watershed in economic policy. After
lengthy debate, this country boldly reduced taxes to accelerate expansion
and reduce unemployment. The effects were immediate and telling. A
mild expansion—which might soon have lapsed into tired decline—picked
up its pace, and at year end showed every sign of long and vigorous life.
The lessons of 1964 will not soon be lost:
—Fiscal policy can sustain growth and raise spending power to the
levels needed to use our resources more fully.
32
—Price stability can be maintained during a strong and balanced
expansion.
—The balance of payments can improve in a period of prosperity.
A new era for economic policy is at hand. A wide consensus of responsible opinion now recognizes that Federal fiscal policy must be geared to
keep the economy moving ahead.
This Annual Report begins with a review of the recent and current performance of our economy. It attempts to dissect the unprecedentedly long
and healthy expansion of the past four years, discovering what factors and
policies, public and private, have contributed to our progress. It finds that
the fiscal policies of the past four years—and especially the tax cut enacted
last February—have played a major part in building and buttressing our
prosperity; that the progressive and flexible monetary policies of these four
years have also contributed both to domestic prosperity and to our improving international balance of payments; and that responsible wage and price
policies have been an important source of strength.
Chapter 2 presents the Council's annual forecast for the year ahead.
It finds grounds for moderate optimism, with respect to both output and
prices. But it sees unwanted idleness remaining as a major problem throughout the year. It sees more rapid growth of our total capacity to produce—
primarily as a result of a faster growth of our labor force. While the
longer-term prospects suggest gradual strengthening in private demand over
the next decade, fiscal and monetary policies are, for the next few years, likely
to face the continuing challenge of providing stimulus to markets rather than
of restraining excessive growth of demand.
Measures are considered which could defend against possible recession;
the guideposts for responsible wage and price behavior are reaffirmed; and
the policies needed to move toward better international balance for the
United States and a better world economic order are reviewed.
Chapters 1 and 2 are thus primarily concerned with the foundations of
over-all abundance on which the Great Society must rest.
Chapter 3 turns to consideration of some problems of the changing structure of our economy—ways to improve and extend flexibility and freedom,
in the interests of faster growth and greater efficiency, as well as to assist
individuals toward fuller realization of their own potentials.
Chapter 4 deals with a series of specific economic problems that must be
overcome on the road to the Great Society, and with the policies necessary
to attain these goals: improvement of our cities; the expansion of public
services in education and health; a stepping-up of the war against poverty;
and equality of opportunity.
Accelerating our progress toward the Great Society provides new and
urgent tasks for economic policy. But the challenge comes at a time when
the tools of economic policy are also becoming more refined, more effective,
and increasingly freed from inhibitions imposed by traditions, misunderstanding, and doctrinaire polemics. In particular, the debates over fiscal
33
policy that have accompanied the measures of the past several years have
increased public understanding, moderated extreme views, narrowed the
range of issues, and elevated the plane of discussion.
Economic policy-making is not yet and never will or should be a science,
but it is becoming more scientific. Men will continue to differ about some
of the goals of the Great Society. But they are perhaps coming to differ
less about the economic measures that can best achieve particular objectives.
34
Chapter 1
The Sustained Expansion of 1961-64
S 1965 BEGINS, most Americans are enjoying a degree of prosperity
unmatched in their experience, or indeed in the history of their
Nation. In 1964, some 70 million of them were at work, producing $622
billion worth of goods and services.
The gains of four years of uninterrupted economic expansion had brought
fuller pay envelopes, greater sales, larger dividend checks, a higher standard
of living, more savings, and a stronger sense of security than ever before.
Over that period industrial production grew at an average annual rate of
7 percent, and the total output of all goods and services (valued in constant
prices) increased at an average rate of 5 percent (Table 1). These gains
brought jobs to 4 million more persons and raised total consumer income
after taxes by 6 percent a year. And all this was accomplished with
essentially stable prices.
That the extent and duration of these gains exceeded the two preceding
postwar expansions can be seen from Chart 1. Indeed, in a few months, the
duration of this expansion will have surpassed any other on record—except
only the prolonged advance before and during World War II.
A
AN OVER-ALL VIEW OF THE EXPANSION
This gratifying record reflects the strength and elasticity of the private
economy, and its favorable response to a series of policy measures deliberately designed to invigorate it. The upturn in 1961 was quick and strong,
in part through an early recovery of private demand and in part through
forceful policy actions. Prompt steps to boost consumers' purchasing power,
taken ,by President Kennedy's Administration, were later reinforced by
increases in Government expenditures necessary to strengthen America's
basic defenses and to achieve the precautionary buildup required by the
Berlin crisis.
Following the rapid recovery, the outlook appeared favorable in early
1962. Many observers, recognizing that there were special explanations for
the weakness and brevity of the recovery of 1958-60, expected a return of the
vigorous expansionary strength of 1954-57. In fact, conditions had
changed. The backlogs of demand for housing, consumer durable goods,
and additions to manufacturing plant and equipment, which had existed
35
TABLE 1.—Changes in selected measures of economic activity during the current expansion
[Seasonally adjusted except as noted]
Measure
1961 I
1964 IV Absolute
change
Percentage change
Total
Per year
Billions of dollars, annual
rate
Gross national product:
Total:
Current prices .
_
1964 prices
_
Private:
Current prices ._
1964 prices
_
_
_
501.4
524.9
633.5
629.4
132.1
104.5
26.3
19.9
6.4
5.0
452.1
468.4
568.4
565.3
116.3
96.9
25.7
20.7
6.3
5.1
30.7
32.1
36.3
29.6
81.1
36.6
7.2
7.5
8.7
3.0
4.1
4.2
6.2
5.5
9.0
1.1
1.6
2.3
-1.8
4.1
9.2
2.4
5.8
6.2
6.0
4.8
1957-59=1(X)
Industrial production:
Total
M anufacturing
Durable
_.
103.7
103.1
99.1
134.4
135.2
135.4
Millions of persons
Employment and unemployment: 1
Civilian labor force
Nonagricultural -
XTneTnployTnent rate {percent)
Private nonagricultural payroll employment
71.4
66.6
60.9
6.8
45.0
74.4
70.7
66.4
5.0
49.1
Billions of dollars, annual
rate
Personal income:
Total (before taxes)
Wages and salaries
Disposable (after taxes)
Consumer purchasing power'
407.2
271.5
355.6
355.6
502.2
339.9
442.0
424.6
95.0
68.4
86.4
69.0
23.3
25.2
24.3
19.4
39.2
19.5
19.5
3 58.1
3 32.0
3 31. i
3 18.9
3 12.5
3 11.6
3 48.2
3 64.1
8 59.5
3 11.9
3 15.2
3 14.3
4.5
-.2
1.2
-.1
Corporate profits:
Before taxes plus inventory valuation adjustment
After taxes
Corporate purchasing power *
1957-59=100, unadjusted
Prices:
Consumer
Wholesale
..
103.9
101.0
s 108.6
100.8
4.7
-.2
_._..
,.
. with data for 1964 IV.
»Disposable personal income (current prices) divided by the implicit price deflator of personal consumption expenditures on a 19611=100 base.
3
Data for 1964 III and change from 19611 to 1964 III.
4
Corporate profits after taxes (current prices) divided by the implicit price deflator of "private nonresidential construction plus producers' durable equipment" on a 19611=100 base.
• Average of October-November data.
NOTE.—Detail will Dot necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of Labor, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, and Council of Economic Advisers.
Chart 1
Real GNP in Three Postwar Expansions
GNP TROUGH = 1 0 0 1 /
120 —
1961 - 6 4
\
115
/
+ — "• *" ""
1954-57
110
1958-60
105
-
1
100
0
2
4
6
1
1
8
\
10
1
1
12
1
1
14
QUARTERS AFTER TROUGH
)J BASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA, IN CONSTANT PRICES.
TROUGH QUARTERS FOR GNP WERE 1954 I I , 1958 I , AND 1961 I .
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
in 1954-55, were gone. Even after the expansionary fiscal measures of
1961, the Federal budget remained more restrictive than it had been in the
1954-57 period. Holdings of liquid assets were considerably lower relative
to income than in the years prior to 1955, partly as a result of year? of
tighter monetary policy.
In the course of 1962, the pace of expansion slowed. By mid-1962 it
had become apparent that, given the level and structure of Federal tax
rates, the strength of private demand would be insufficient to carry the
economy up to full employment of its resources. Consequently, President
Kennedy announced in August that he would propose a major tax bill in
1963, reducing the rates of personal income and corporate profits taxes from
levels which had been determined in large part by the need to fight the postwar and Korean inflations. The year 1963 saw prolonged debate over this
measure, and enactment came only in February 1964. But by mid-1963,
increasing confidence that prosperity would be maintained with the aid of
the expected tax cut, the continuing support of an expansionary monetary
policy, the fuller response of business investment to the 1962 tax measures,
and the strong demand for automobiles once again began to accelerate the
37
pace of expansion. Thus, as the Revenue Act of 1964 became effective,
the economy was already moving ahead strongly.
THE ECONOMY IN 1964
In its Report a year ago, the Council of Economic Advisers found that
". . . the outlook this year calls for a significant acceleration in the growth
of output. At the midpoint of the forecast range, current-dollar GNP for
1964 is estimated to increase 6J/2 percent above the level of 1963, and the
real GNP, about 5 percent . . . the more rapid expansion of production in
1964 should lower the unemployment rate. By the end of the year, it is
expected to fall to approximately 5 percent." These expectations were
realized. Gross national product (GNP) for the year as a whole exceeded
that of 1963 by 6^2 percent, and the unemployment rate in December was
5.0 percent.
The optimistic forecast for 1964 depended on the tax cut, and its fulfillment is a measure of the tax cut's accomplishments.
Between the final quarter of 1963 and the final quarter of 1964, business
fixed investment rose by 9 percent. This confidence in expanding markets proved to be justified. Strengthened by the tax cut, consumer spending
rose exceptionally rapidly and steadily during the year. Gains of total
production ran close to $10 billion a quarter, until the fourth quarter when
strikes at General Motors and Ford plants reduced production and held
down consumer purchases. But by year end, the effects of the strikes
were overcome. Retail sales in December ran a strong 8^2 percent above
sales a year earlier. The dip in the growth of industrial production had
been more than erased, and employment in December was 1.8 million
above the same month in 1963.
These four years of expansion have demonstrated that the American
economy is capable of sustained balanced growth in peacetime. No law
of nature compels a free market economy to suffer from recessions or
periodic inflations. As the postwar experience of Western Europe and
Japan already indicates, future progress need not be interrupted even
though its pace may vary from year to year. We need not judge the life
expectancy of the current expansion by measuring the time it has already
run. The economy is in good health, and its prospects for continued
expansion are in no wise dimmed by the fact that the upswing began four
years ago rather than one or two years ago.
PROBLEMS UNSOLVED
The expansion of economic activity during the past four years has carried
virtually every economic indicator to a new record level. But this in itself
is no cause for complacency. In a growing economy, it should be a matter
of course to set new records month by month and quarter by quarter; to
38
be meaningful, economic achievements must be gauged against capabilities
and objectives.
Unfortunately, the balanced growth of the U.S. economy in recent years,
unlike the sustained progress of other industrial economies, has occurred at
too low a level. The excessive unemployment and idle capacity with which
the current U.S. expansion began have not yet been fully erased. Unemployment at 5.0 percent of the civilian labor force is far better than the 7
percent rate of spring 1961. But 5.0 percent represents 3.7 million persons
seeking work. If unemployment today were at the interim target of 4
percent, the number without jobs would have fallen below 3 million, and
the labor force would be considerably larger than it is today, as emerging
job opportunities encouraged more people to seek work. Consumer incomes
and corporate profits would both be considerably higher. The "gap" of
$25-$30 billion that still remains between the Nation's actual output and
its potential output would be closed. The size of this gap—4 percent of
our current potential—is a measure of the primary challenge for economic
policy: achieving maximum employment, production, and purchasing
power.
A second challenge—not new, but more fully recognized than ever
before—lies in the contrast between our great over-all prosperity and the
poverty and misery which still afflict too many families, and in the contrast
between our great material achievements and the quality of our private
and public lives.
A third challenge of pressing importance lies in the fact that, despite
considerable progress, we have not yet regained equilibrium in our balance
of payments.
The remainder of this chapter has three main tasks: first, to dissect the
character of the sustained expansion of 1961—64; second, to assess the contribution of fiscal and monetary policies to the successful record of these
years; and, third, to review the accompanying changes in our international
payments position and the policies that have contributed to the gains we
have made.
THE ANATOMY OF THE EXPANSION
The remarkable characteristic of the current expansion is not the degree
to which it has carried us toward our objective of full employment. Previous expansions have done as well or better in this respect. Rather, its
most remarkable feature is its durability. This can be attributed in important part to the balance maintained among the various components
of private demand; to the balance maintained between production and
sales, thus avoiding excessive inventory accumulation; to the balance maintained between the expansion of demand and the expansion of productive
39
capacity to satisfy that demand; and to the balance maintained among
wages, prices, and productivity. Imbalances in one or more of these respects
brought earlier expansions to an end. Some ended when inventories
became top-heavy; others when a major industry had expanded too fast,
and its retrenchment was not offset elsewhere; still others when growth
of demand generally failed to keep pace with growth of capacity. The
key to sustained full employment lies in preserving balance as over-all
demand moves closer to the economy's full capacity.
Since 1961, the expansion of demand has been persistent and pervasive,
but production has stayed short of supply capabilities. Placement of orders
has advanced only moderately ahead of production and shipments, so that
unfilled orders have grown gradually. Capacity has expanded along with
production, without bottlenecks or overbuilding.
Businesses have followed a prudent employment policy, avoiding both
overstaffing and the need for sudden heavy hiring. This, in turn, partly
explains the steady gains in productivity throughout the expansion. Increases in production have been large enough to utilize the net gain in the
labor force and to make inroads into unemployment.
With no significant buildup of unfilled orders, and with production not
making full use of capacity, price increases from generally excessive demand
have remained remote. With wage increases matching productivity gains,
labor costs per unit of output have remained unusually stable, and any
general upward pressure of costs on prices has been avoided. Thus the purchasing power of personal and business incomes has risen steadily and
strongly.
The patterns of year-to-year change in total GNP and in its several major
expenditure components are shown in Table 2 and Chart 2. The most
striking aspect is the renewed fast expansion between 1963 and 1964, following the distinct slowing down of growth that occurred between 1962 and
1963. The table shows that a major acceleration of consumption expendiT A B L E 2.—Changes in gross national product
in the current expansion
[Billions of dollars]
Expenditure group
Gross national product
1961 to 1962
1962 to 1963
1963 to 1964 i
_.
37.5
27.7
38.4
Personal consumption expenditures..
19.5
18.2
24.2
Nonconsumption expenditures
18.0
9.5
14.2
2.5
3.9
4.0
-.6
8.3
1.6
2.7
-1.5
.4
6.3
.8
5.7
-.7
2.3
6.1
5.5
2.9
1.8
4.4
.9
5.1
Residential construction
Private business fixed investment
Change in business inventories
Net exports
Government purchases of goods and services..
Federal
State and local..
> Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
Chart 2
Changes in Gross National Product Since 1961
CHANGE IN BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
TOTAL GNP
40
INVESTMENT ±1
30
S T A T E A N D L 0 C A L
FEDERAL
l GOVERNMENT
PURCHASES
f
20
PERSONAL
CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES
10
1961-62
1962-63
1963-64
IV GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND NET EXPORTS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
tures, and a substantial rise in business fixed investment and State and local
government spending, were the main elements in the faster expansion of
1964. It also shows that the slowdown in 1963 reflected a smaller growth
of every element of spending except net exports and State and local outlays.
The following sections review in some detail the record of the expansion
for each of the major categories of private expenditure. Then, the record
is detailed in terms of the behavior of income shares; the contribution of
credit; the pattern of wages, prices, and productivity; and the record of
employment. Because of their importance in this expansion, the contributions of fiscal and monetary policies are reserved for separate treatment in
the next major part of the chapter.
THE DEPENDABLE CONSUMER
Consumers, in the aggregate, purchase roughly two-thirds of our total
output. And when total output increases, the larger part of the increase
is accounted for by consumer buying. Yet changes in consumer spending
rarely provide the fundamental force behind large or prolonged expansions
or contractions of output.
Mainly, consumers alter their total buying in response to variations in
their total income after taxes (disposable income). Indeed, in each year
since 1949, consumer spending has ranged between 92 percent and 94 percent
of disposable income, averaging close to 93 percent.
This means that if we are to understand the main variations in consumer
buying we must look to the sources of changes in disposable income.
Changes in disposable income usually reflect increases or decreases in total
production, for the largest part of consumer income is earned from current
production. Occasionally, however—and 1964 was a notable case—disposable income increases independently of production, particularly through
alteration in consumer tax rates. Reduced tax rates leave available to consumers a larger part of the income that they earn from any given level of
total output. The resulting increase in their buying then stimulates more
production and, through higher incomes, still further increases in consumer
buying and production. Just such a pattern of response to the 1964 tax
cut is examined in more detail below.
In the absence of tax rate changes, the fundamental force moving total
production ordinarily is found in changes in the total of nonconsumption
expenditures—the building of new plants and the purchase of new machines,
the accumulation of business inventories, the construction of new houses
and apartments, net exports to foreign countries, and government purchases
of goods and services.
Occasionally, to be sure, a shift in the intensity of consumer buying
appears to be spontaneous—reflecting. the typical consumer's mood of
optimism or pessimism, his favorable or unfavorable response to new designs
of the Diors of Detroit, or a sudden interest or loss of interest in air conditioners or color television. Sometimes, changes in the terms and availability
of consumer instalment credit play a role. And a variation of even a half
percentage point in the consumption-income ratio currently means a $2
billion change in consumer buying.
Ordinarily, however, variations of disposable income are the major cause
of changes in consumption. But consumers typically do not adjust their
spending at once to higher levels of disposable income. If disposable income
increases in one quarter, the resulting increase in consumer spending usually
spreads out into several succeeding quarters.
This pattern of consumer behavior has been evident in the present expansion. Although disposable income increased rapidly through the second
quarter of 1962, consumers did not react fully and immediately, and the saving rate thus rose. In the rest of 1962, disposable income grew less rapidly,
but the delayed effects of the rapid increases in disposable income during 1961
(combined with consumers' apparently favorable response to the new automobile models) led to continued good increases in consumption expenditures.
The saving rate declined, reaching 6.6 percent in the first quarter of 1963.
Thus it was largely the temporary decline in the saving rate during 1962
that underwrote the expansion between mid-1962 and mid-1963. As
Table 2 shows, nonconsumption expenditures increased between 1962 and
1963 by only $9.5 billion, compared with a gain of $18.0 billion from 1961
42
to 1962. But consumer spending, still under the impetus of the earlier income rise, moved up with little loss of momentum. At the end of 1963, the
saving rate again moved upward as growth of disposable income accelerated.
At this point, the tax cut of 1964 became a major influence on consumer
spending.
INVESTMENT AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Business fixed investment—including expenditures on new plants, machines, and equipment—rose strongly from 1961 to 1962, moved more sluggishly between 1962 and 1963, then rose vigorously in 1964. Over the whole
expansion, from the first quarter of 1961 to the fourth quarter of 1964, the
increase averaged 8 percent a year and accounted for 26 percent of the
increase in total nonconsumption expenditures.
The average rate of utilization of manufacturing capacity was about 78
percent in the first quarter of 1961, 14 percentage points below the average
rate of 92 percent preferred by managements. By the second quarter of
1962, the rapid gains in manufacturing output had raised the utilization
rate to about 86 percent. Thereafter, slower gains in output were roughly
matched by increases in capacity. Investment rose gradually, in part
responding to the incentives provided by the 1962 tax measure. But capital
outlays were relatively low and were presumably not primarily directed
toward an expansion in capacity. The utilization rate was still 86 percent in
late 1963. Beginning at the end of 1963, the promise—and then the fact—of
accelerating gains in output brought a substantial stepping up of investment. By the third quarter of 1964 the average utilization rate had moved
up to 88 percent, and investment in manufacturing had risen 18 percent
over that of a year earlier.
Investment expenditures thus accelerated in response to a growth in
demand for final products, gradually rising operating rates, improving
rates of profit and cash flow (augmented by the new depreciation guidelines, the investment tax credit, and the reduction in tax rates), the continued ready availability of credit at relatively stable rates of interest, and a
realistic and justified confidence in the continued strength of the economy.
Moreover, the machinery and construction industries generally have had
little difficulty in satisfying the growing stream of orders for capital goods.
This contrasts sharply with conditions in 1955-57, when capital goods
industries lacked adequate capacity to meet demand (Table 3). In 1955
when the expansion of fixed investment began, the surge of new orders
quickly exceeded the capabilities of the machinery and other capital goods
industries. Capacity was soon strained, and unfilled orders climbed rapidly.
Inflationary pressures developed in the capital goods industries and spread
elsewhere, interacting with large wage increases throughout industry to
raise costs and prices.
Investment expenditures in 1956-57 added to capacity throughout the
private economy at a substantial rate. It is not clear whether that rate of
43
TABLE 3.—Expenditures for manufacturing plant and equipment, and related data, 1955-57 and
1967-64
[Based on seasonally adjusted data]
Expenditures Manufacturing utilizaBacklog of unfilled
for manufaction rate (percent) ' orders for machinery and
turing plant
equipment (months) *
and equipment (percentage
Beginning
Beginning
End of
End of
change per
year during of period
period
of period
period
period)
Period
1955 I M955 IV
1955 IV-1956 III
1956 III-1957 III
1961II *-1962 II.
1962 11-1963 IV
1963 IV-1964 IV«
.
.
32
37
3
87
92
87
92
87
86
3.70
4.32
4.62
4.32
4.62
4.31
7
9
20
81
86
86
86
86
87
3.43
3.22
3.33
3.22
3.33
»3.58
1
3
3
4
6
Output as percent of capacity. See Appendix Table B-35, footnote 1, for source.
Ratio of unfilled orders to shipments.
Trough quarter of manufacturing plant and equipment expenditures used.
Preliminary.
Based on October-November averages.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Securities and Exchange Commission (except as noted).
growth of capacity could have been maintained in all industries had total
demands kept pace with the economy's potential. But in fact, demand weakened outside the capital goods sector, partly because of restrictive monetary
and fiscal policy actions taken to stem price increases. Over-all operating
rates fell sharply during 1956, while the investment boom continued. With
the growth of final demand falling far short of the growth of capacity, the
incentives for investment ultimately waned and the economy moved into
recession in 1957.
In 1961-64, by contrast, utilization rates expanded both more slowly
and more evenly as among industries. Investment responded more moderately, and the backlog of machinery orders consequently remained relatively
low and stable.
INVENTORIES
Inventory investment has contributed significantly to the balance and
duration of the current expansion. Although it is usually one of the
most volatile components of GNP, aggravating rather than smoothing
swings in output and employment, inventory accumulation during the past
fifteen quarters fluctuated more moderately and its movements were less
perverse in timing than in other postwar expansions.
The relative steadiness and moderation of inventory investment are
shown in Chart 3, which compares movements of nonfarm inventories and
of final sales of goods in the three expansions since the Korean war. (Final
sales of goods are total GNP less inventory accumulation and the production
of services.)
During the past fifteen quarters, the percentage growth of inventories
typically fell short of the growth of final sales. In other words, over this
44
Chart 3
Inventories and Final Sales of Goods
In Three Postwar Expansions
GNP TROUGH = 1 0 0
^
1954-57 EXPANSION
110
FINAL SALES OF GOODS
X.
• NONFARM INVENTORIES
100
I
I
1
8
10
I
I
12
I
14
1958-60 EXPANSION
no
FINAL SALES OF GOODS
NONFARM INVENTORIES
100
I
8
10
I
i
12
14
1961-64 EXPANSION
120
-
FINAL SALES OF GOODS
110
NONFARM INVENTORIES
100
•
•
•
1
1
1
1
1
6
1
1
8
1
10
1
1
12
1
1
14
QUARTERS AFTER T R O U G H
h BASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA IN 1954 PRICES; INVENTORIES AT END OF QUARTER AND TOTAL
SALES FOR QUARTER. TROUGH QUARTERS FOR GNP WERE 1954 I I , 1958 I, AND 1961 I .
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
757-081 O—«i5
4
45
period the ratio of inventories to sales declined. In each of the two preceding expansions inventories declined at first, then rose at roughly the
same rate as sales until about the sixth quarter of expansion; thereafter,
they continued to rise even after the trend in sales appeared to warrant
little further inventory accumulation. These mounting imbalances between
inventories and sales meant higher costs and risks of inventory holding, and
set the stage for a liquidation of inventories when final sales turned down.
There are several reasons for the favorable relation between inventories
and sales in the present expansion. First, final sales have moved ahead
fairly steadily throughout the period. Second, forces which might motivate
an expansion of inventories beyond the immediate needs of businesses have
been minimal. Inflationary fears have been absent and, as a result, there
has been little speculative inventory buying. Chart 4 shows the stability of
wholesale industrial prices in recent years, contrasting sharply with the rises
in 1955-56. Since capacity has been ample in relation to the volume of
orders, businessmen have been assured of prompt deliveries, and normally
have had little reason to hoard inventories. The short and stable lead-times
Chart 4
Wholesale Prices of Industrial Commodities
In Three Postwar Expansions
GNP TROUGH = 1 0 0
112
110
1954 - 57
/
108 "
106 --
104
-
-
1958 - 60
/
102
-
>-
"^
^ ^
O
1961-64
100
m
98
1
1
0
1
2
'
1
•
1
4
I
1
1
6
I
1
I
8
10
QUARTERS AFTER TROUGH
-!/ TROUGH QUARTERS FOR GNP WERE 1954 I I , 1958 I, AND 1961 I .
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
46
II
I
12
i
14
Chart 5
Unfilled Orders For Durable Goods
in Three Postwar Expansions
MONTHS BACKLOG-^
4.5
4.0
1954-57 .
, '
3.5
\
1958-60
3.0
6
8
10
14
QUARTERS AFTER TROUGH
1/ BASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY AVERAGES. RATIO OF UNFILLED ORDERS TO PEAK
SHIPMENTS TO DATE. TROUGH QUARTERS FOR GNP WERE 1954 I I , 1958 I, AND 1961 I .
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
between orders and shipments of durable-goods industries as a group in the
current expansion are in contrast to the longer and more variable lead-times
in the two preceding expansions (Chart 5). Third, the effects of improved
methods of inventory control, including especially the use of computers,
may now be sufficiently widespread to influence the behavior of inventories.
Additions to inventories were extraordinarily modest in 1964. As shown
by Chart 3, sales maintained a very rapid pace, while—until the fourth quarter—inventory accumulation proceeded at the slowest rate since the beginning of the expansion. Reductions in inventory-sales ratios were general.
Although lead-times lengthened somewhat, as shown in Chart 5, businessmen
were apparently achieving desired inventory levels with a modest rate of
inventory investment.
RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
Expenditures for new private nonfarm residential construction climbed
rapidly for six quarters from thefirstquarter of 1961; they then rose steadily,
though more slowly, to a peak in the first quarter of 1964. During the
47
rest of 1964 they tapered off. In each of the two preceding expansions,
residential construction had grown even more rapidly at first; then, after
only four or five quarters of expansion, it had begun a fairly steady decline.
Throughout the current expansion, funds for mortgage investment have
been readily available at stable or declining rates of interest. This record
diverges substantially from that of the two preceding expansions, when
a scarcity of mortgage funds and sharply higher mortgage rates contributed
materially to the premature decline of residential construction.
Practically the entire rise in residential construction during 1961-63 was
in multi-unit starts and mostly in structures with 5 or more units. The proportion of multi-unit to total housing starts rose from 24 percent in 1958 to
36 percent in 1964. Single-family starts rose very slightly from early 1961
into 1962; since then they have decreased gradually, but fairly steadily, to,
or perhaps below, the number in the first quarter of 1961. Multi-unit
starts, by contrast, rose strongly from mid-1960 to late 1963; during 1964
they, too, declined.
Demand for apartments has risen with the increasing number of couples
who, with children grown and away from home, find suburban houses
inconvenient. Also, the number of young couples not yet ready for singlefamily houses is beginning to increase. Heavy apartment-building has
occurred both in cities and in suburbs, the location determined in some cases
by urban renewal, and always by land costs and degrees of traffic congestion.
Particularly favorable provisions of the tax laws and innovations in financing
and management techniques also have had an important influence on
apartment-building in recent years.
During the four years 1961-64, housing starts totaled about 6 million, an
excess of about 3 million over the net gain in households, or an average
excess of more than 700,000 units a year. This excess is the highest fouryear average in the postwar period.
The net addition to the stock of housing is, of course, usually smaller
than the number of new units built. During the decade of the 1950's,
demolitions and conversions accounted for an average decline of 300,000
units a year. The recent extensive activity in road-building and clearance
for urban renewal and for private commercial and apartment-building in
cities suggests that losses from demolition are now substantially larger than
in the 1950's.
Nevertheless, it is probable that in recent years the net housing stock has
grown more rapidly than the number of households, creating a considerable
volume of vacancies and abandonments. However, there is no evidence
that any serious surplus has occurred in the types of housing units or the
areas where most new building occurs. To be sure, vacancies have reached
unduly high levels in certain local markets; foreclosures and mortgage
delinquencies have been high in a few areas; and substantial concessions
have had to be granted on the terms of mortgages on some new
apartment houses that have not rented well. In several local markets the
absorptive capacity for high-rent units has been reached, at least temporarily, and lenders are more cautious about making financing commitments.
Over the Nation as a whole, however, vacancy rates, delinquencies, and
foreclosures have remained relatively low and stable.
The slowdown in new construction has come at a time when the general economy is expanding vigorously. This means that readjustments to
correct possible local imbalances will not be aggravated by falling incomes
and reduced over-all demand for housing. A vigorously expanding economy
is able both to absorb and to facilitate temporary readjustments in particular sectors.
INCOME SHARES
The division of income between labor and capital has undergone little or
no change in the past decade, other than changes associated with fluctuations
in the level of business activity. Recent experience continues that pattern.
To determine whether wages are growing at the expense of profits, or
vice versa, analysis has to be confined to the private business sector of the
economy, and—for lack of data—to the corporate sector. Changes in this
sector, in any case, dominate movements in the whole economy. After
subtracting corporate indirect taxes, the entire corporate gross product can
be divided between employee compensation and the gross return to capital:
profits before taxes, interest, and capital consumption allowances.
The shares of labor and capital in total corporate gross product (after
indirect taxes) have displayed a stable pattern since 1954. By and large,
the capital share moves closely with the utilization of capacity (Chart 6 ) ;
correspondingly, the labor share moves opposite to capacity utilization.
When utilization is low, firms carry excess overhead labor and run production processes at less than optimal rates. As a result, cost per unit of
output rises, and the return to capital falls. Likewise, when production and
the utilization of capacity increase, cost per unit of output falls and the
return to capital rises. Since 1955, the relative share of labor in corporate
gross product has ranged between a high of 74.4 percent in the first quarter
of 1958 and a low of 69.9 percent in the second half of 1955, and has been
free of any discernible trend, once adjustment is made for differing degrees
of utilization.
The share of capital in gross corporate product rose to 29.0 percent in
the second quarter of 1964, but it remained below peak proportions attained
in 1955 and 1959. The capital share can be expected to continue to rise
slightly as the economy moves toward full potential production, but this
will not indicate a trend to a higher share for capital at full utilization of
capacity than was the case earlier.
In the early part of each of the two previous expansions since the Korean
conflict, the absolute magnitude of net corporate profits, before and after
taxes, grew extremely fast (faster than the total return to corporate capital).
49
Chart 6
Income Shares and Capacity Utilization
PERCENT
PERCENT
31
95
CORPORATE NONWAGE
INCOME SHARE \j
30
(Left Scale)
90
85
27
80
26
MANUFACTURING CAPACITY
UTILIZATION RATE
(Right Scale)
25
70
24
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1/CORPORATE PROFITS BEFORE TAXES (INCLUDING INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT), CAPITAL
CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES, AND INTEREST AS PERCENT OF CORPORATE GROSS PRODUCT LESS
INDIRECT TAXES.
-2/OUTPUT AS PERCENT OF CAPACITY.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SEE TABLE B-35
FOR SOURCE OF MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE.
During the remainder of each expansion, profits steadily declined—
both in absolute amount and as a share of income. In the current expansion, the gains of corporate profits were slower, but they were sustained
without significant interruption, reflecting the fact that utilization rates
moved upward more steadily. This, clearly, has contributed to the continuing expansion of investment.
Corporate profits before taxes were 9.5 percent of the total national income
in the first quarter of 1961, held around 10.6 percent from the first quarter
of 1962 through the third quarter of 1963, and averaged 11.3 percent of
national income in the first three quarters of 1964. (Preliminary evidence
suggests that profits dipped in the fourth quarter, primarily because of the
automobile strikes.) As a result of changes in corporate tax rates, the share
of corporate profits after tax rose a little faster—from 4.7 percent of total
national income in thefirstquarter of 1961 to 6.2 percent in the third quarter
of 1964.
Total employee compensation (including that from unincorporated businesses, governments, and institutions) rose from $294 billion in the first
50
quarter of 1961 to $371 billion in the third quarter of 1964, or by 26 percent; but as a share of total national income, it remained close to 71 percent
through the whole period. After taxes, however, total employee compensation has actually risen as a share of national income since the fourth
quarter of 1963.
CREDIT
Availability of credit
A sustained growth of credit has helped to maintain the over-all advance
in spending. Total new funds raised by individuals, businesses, and State
and local governments have advanced relatively steadily, by close to 20 percent a year, since the first quarter of 1961. During each of the two preceding expansions, borrowing rose sharply during the first five or six
quarters—at an average annual rate of about 50 percent in the first period
and 90 percent in the second—and then declined during the remainder of the
expansion. Thus the increase of credit in the current business upswing is
less notable for its rate of growth than for its persistence.
The prolonged advance in residential construction activity reflected, in
part, an easing of mortgage credit terms. The total volume of mortgage
credit outstanding accounts for about 40 percent of the total outstanding
debt of the nonfinancial sectors of the economy. It has risen at an average
annual rate of more than 10J/2 percent since the end of 1960 (as shown
in Table 4). This is faster than private debt in any other category.
A major factor in this ready availability of mortgage credit has been
the rapid growth of consumer and business time and savings deposits, in
response to the higher rates of return paid since early 1962 by commercial
T A B L E 4.—Expansion of selected types of credit in three postwar
expansions
Percentage changes in credit outstanding '
Period
Bank loans
to business 2
Corporate
bonds 3
Mortgages
Consumer
credit
1954-57 expansion:
1954
1955
1956
1957
-0.6
16.2
18.3
4.0
7.3
5.6
6.9
11.0
12.2
14.3
11.2
8.4
3.4
19.6
9.0
6.2
1.6
12.2
5.8
8.9
4.3
4.8
9.7
11.1
8.4
.4
14.2
8.7
3.4
9.0
10.1
8.9
6.0
5.8
4.3
4.3
9.4
11.2
11.7
10.7
2.9
9.5
10.7
10.0
1958-60 expansion:
1958 .
1959.1960
Current expansion:
1961
1962
1963
1964
1
2
3
Based on flow-of-funds accounts.
Bank loans to nonfinancial business.
Corporate bonds valued at par.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
banks (following successive increases in the permissible ceiling rates). A
large proportion of these funds has been channeled into the mortgage market.
At the same time, the continued substantial flow of funds to savings institutions other than commercial banks which, by law and custom, invest a large
part of their funds in the mortgage market has also been important.
A second factor contributing to the ease of all long-term credit markets
has been the moderate nature of the expansion in demands from business
for external financing. With cash flow exceeding fixed investment outlays,
as indicated in Table 5, and accumulation of inventories moderate, business
firms have "financed themselves" to a greater degree than previously. Consequently, the volume of corporate bonds outstanding has expanded less
rapidly, on the average, during recent years than during the preceding two
expansion periods; and the amount of bank loans outstanding to business
has expanded only slightly faster, despite the greater strength of the current
expansion. Meanwhile, the cost of business borrowing at banks has been
virtually unchanged, and interest costs on newly issued corporate bonds have
fluctuated within a narrow range.
With relatively moderate demands for credit from business customers,
financial institutions have had more funds available for mortgages, State
and local government securities (at interest rates well below the last expansion period), and consumer credit. Outstanding consumer credit has grown
at an average rate of about 8 percent a year. This growth roughly matches
the average rate since 1953 but, as shown in Table 4, without the sharp
fluctuations of the earlier periods.
In the first three years of the current expansion period, growth in bank
credit outstanding accounted for about 30 percent of total new funds raised
T A B L E 5.—Sources and uses of corporate funds in three postwar
Internal
funds
(billions of
dollars)
End of period
expansions
Uses as percent of internal funds
Plant and
equipment
Inventories
Increase in
financial
assets
1954-57 Expansion:
1954
1955 . . .
1956
1957
19.8
26.6
27.8
28.0
113.1
91.0
107.6
116.8
(0
26.0
31.1
29.1
101.5
89.1
105.8
(0
29.7
35.2
36.8
40.9
99.7
90.9
91.8
95.8
25.2
27.3
7.5
15.2
74.1
27.0
19.6
21.2
8.6
43.5
57.6
36.1
4.4
12.5
10.1
7.8
59.9
51.1
56.5
51.1
1958-60 Expansion:
1958
1959
I960..
.
Current Expansion:
1961
1962
1963
1964
1
Inventories declined.
NOTE.—See Appendix Table B-68 for data used in computing percents shown in this table.
Source: Department of Commerce.
(including Federal Government borrowing). In 1964, the proportion
probably fell somewhat as monetary policy became slightly less easy. Nevertheless, these are unusually high proportions for an expansion, partly reflecting the larger proportion of consumer savings placed in commercial
banks and the active competition of banks for funds through the device of
time certificates of deposit.
Volume of debt and liquidity
In the course of four years of relatively expansionary monetary policy,
the total outstanding debt of the nonfinancial sectors of the economy (excluding the Federal Government) has risen at an average annual rate of
8^4 percent, compared with a 5yi percent rate of increase in GNP. Aggregate consumer debt, including home mortgages as well as instalment
and other types of household credit, has experienced particularly rapid
growth. In appraising this growth, it is important to bear in mind that
the outstanding amounts of home mortgages and instalment credit were
abnormally low at the end of World War II. Since then, family use of
credit has become a much more commonly accepted and widespread phenomenon, linked especially to widening home ownership. Thus, it would
be perfectly normal to expect a steady rise in the ratio of the outstanding
debt to income. Nevertheless, the ratio of the net increase in such debt—
i.e., net new borrowing—to income has been relatively stable. As long as
there is no persistent tendency for the ratio of new borrowing to income
to rise, it is a matter of arithmetic that, although the ratio of outstanding
debt to income will rise with steady growth of income, the rise would taper
off and eventually cease, as the stock of outstanding debt approaches its
new normal relationship to current income.
Furthermore, the increase of debt has a counterpart in the growth of
assets held by individuals and businesses, much of it in liquid forms, such as
bank deposits and share accounts. Consumers in particular increased their
holdings of liquid assets rather abruptly during 1962 and 1963, and the
ratio of their liquid assets to income is now well above the levels prevailing
during the latter part of the 1950's. As interest rates on time and savings
deposits rose relative to those on securities, consumers responded by changing the composition of their assets into these more liquid and now higher
yielding forms. Business holdings of liquid assets have also increased, but
proportionately less than business sales.
Quality of credit
In a prolonged period of healthy expansion and relatively plentiful credit,
the tendency of financial institutions to confine credit extension to their
traditional customers is reduced. This is clearly desirable so long as resources
remain available and it does not lead to a large number of loan defaults,
soaring prices of earning assets, or unsustainable burdens of debt relative to
income.
53
In the current expansion, the ratio of net extensions of instalment credit
to disposable income has remained below the peak ratios in 1955, 1959, and
1960, despite a temporary rise from early 1962 to mid-1963. Furthermore, data from consumer surveys suggest that, although a growing proportion of households is using credit, the typical ratio of debt to income
has not risen. Meanwhile, the growth of liquid assets has increased the
creditworthiness of many households.
The quality of mortgage credit is more difficult to evaluate because
its characteristics differ widely from one geographic area to another.
Although defaults and real estate foreclosures have risen somewhat, they
remain quite low, and much of the increase is concentrated in a few
localities. Mortgage delinquency rates have recently shown little change.
The soundness of the credit structure depends fundamentally on continued gains in income and on the liquidity and diversification of the
portfolios of lending institutions. The latter must be primarily the responsibility of the institutions concerned, but supervisory authorities also
have an important role in helping to prevent deterioration in the quality of
credit.
WAGES, PRICES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Sustained economic expansion during the past four years was accompanied by a healthy balance among wages, prices, and productivity. Wholesale prices in 1964 averaged no higher than in 1960; consumer prices rose
1.2 percent a year; the growth in productivity was fairly steady, averaging
3.5 percent annually for the private economy; and wage gains kept up
with, but did not outdistance, the trend in productivity. As a result, unit
labor costs showed no general increase over the four-year period; income
shares were free of distortions arising from inflation; and restrictive policies
to curb an inflationary spiral were unnecessary.
The period was, essentially, inflation free. The small increases in the consumer price index and in the over-all "implicit deflator" for GNP must be
interpreted in the light of the conceptual limitations of these measures.
None of our price indexes can reflect all of the improvement that occurs in
the quality of goods, nor can an index make allowance for the rise in the
value of the dollar that comes from the development of new products.
Further, the GNP deflator must include "prices" for the Government
sector, even though there is no objective measure of public output. The
"price" series for the public sector really measures the costs of inputs and
cannot reflect the increase that occurs in productivity in Government. To
a smaller extent this is also true for most of construction and some services.
Although the effects of these factors on our price indexes cannot be measured, their direction is clear. Their presence makes it doubtful that the
actual purchasing power of the dollar changed perceptibly in the period
1961-64.
54
Over-all record
The rise in straight-time average hourly earnings in manufacturing during 1964 was about 3.0 percent, compared with 2.6 percent a year for the
entire period 1960-64. Fringe benefits, of course, are not included. Whenever such benefits rise faster than wage rates, hourly earnings data understate
the percentage rise in total average hourly compensation. Since 1960, total
compensation per man-hour (including fringe benefits) has increased about
3.3 percent a year in manufacturing and 3.6 percent in the private economy
as a whole. In 1964, the increases were 3.0 percent and 3.8 percent,
respectively.
A special study of key labor agreements that were concluded during 1964
in 11 major industries showed a median increase in hourly compensation
of 3.5 percent a year over the life of the contracts; most of these increases
fell within a range of 2 percent to 5 percent.
The character of this expansion helps to explain this good wage-price-productivity record. As noted before, the expansion of demand has not overtaxed the economy's capabilities to produce. Balanced growth of output
among sectors has prevented pressures for price and wage increases that
might have resulted had there been capacity bottlenecks or shortages of
manpower in particular industries. Price stability has made for prudent
investment policies with respect to inventories and plant and equipment,
and these policies in turn have reinforced the price stability.
Where pressures for higher prices have occurred (particularly in primary
metals), their source has ordinarily not been found either in excess domestic
demand or in higher labor costs in our own economy. Sharp increases
in prices of nonferrous metals in 1964 were caused largely by unsettled
political conditions in supplying countries and by interruptions of production
as a result of strikes. By the year's end, moreover, the prices of some
metals had receded well below the peaks reached during the year.
Comparison with previous expansions
The course of wages, prices, productivity, and unit labor costs for both
total manufacturing and the total private economy in the years since the
prerecession year of 1960 is compared in Chart 7 with movements in the
two "peak-to-peak" periods—1953-57 and 1957-60. The upward surge
of wages, unit labor costs, and prices in the final two years of the 1953-57
period and the steady climb of costs and prices during 1957-60 are in
clear contrast to the stability of the past four years. (In measuring price
movements for the total private economy and for manufacturing, the
"implicit deflators" prepared for calculations of "real" GNP were used.
These deflators do not move identically with the wholesale price index,
but they are consistent with the output and compensation data that are
used.)
55
Chart 7
Compensation, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, and
Prices in Three Postwar Periods
PREVIOUS PEAK YEAR = 1 0 0 U
130
PRIVATE ECONOMY
1953-57
1957.6O
. _ _
—
MANUFACTURING
1960-6*
T O T A L HOURLY COMPENSATION
120
110
100
PRODUCTIVITY
no
100
UNIT LABOR COSTS 2 /
\
110
100
PRICES 2/
no
I
P
1
I
2
I
3
4
" P
1
YEARS AFTER PREVIOUS PEAK
^PREVIOUS PEAK YEARS WERE 1953, 1957, AND 1960.
-^RATIO OF TOTAL HOURLY COMPENSATION (FOR EMPLOYEE MAN-HOURS) TO PRODUCTIVITY (FOR A L L
MAN-HOURS).
^ I M P L I C I T DEFLATORS FOR THE TOTAL PRIVATE AND MANUFACTURING SECTORS OF GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
The moderate gain of about 3.6 percent a year in hourly compensation
in the total private sector during the present expansion compares with an
advance averaging 3.9 percent a year in 1957-60 and 4.5 percent in 1953-57.
The rise in output per man-hour from 1960 to 1964 was larger and more
evenly sustained than in the previous two periods considered. Gains in
output per man-hour in the private sector in 1960-64 averaged 3.5 percent
a year, compared with 2.5 in 1953-57 and 2.7 in 1957-60.
Strong gains in output and productivity typically take place during the
recovery from a recession; they stimulate investment and extra hiring by
business in anticipation of further gains in output. After the recoveries of
1955 and 1958, expected gains were not realized, the advance of productivity
was retarded, unit labor costs were increased, and profits were squeezed.
Especially in 1955-57, this helped to upset the balance among costs, prices,
and income shares, and aggravated the wage-price spiral.
The better record of productivity performance during the past four years
is in large measure the result of a sustained expansion of output that has
kept operating rates moving upward. Total private output rose at an
average annual rate of 4.1 percent a year from 1960 to 1964, or about
IJ/2 times the average rate of about 2.7 percent during the two earlier
periods considered. The difference in manufacturing is even more striking, with output gains averaging 4.8 percent a year since 1960, compared
with about 1*4 percent a year in the two earlier periods.
The steady gains in productivity and the moderate wage increases have
held unit labor costs practically unchanged in the total private economy during the past four years and have resulted in a slight net reduction in manufacturing labor costs. Similarly, the implicit price deflators have risen very
little, as Chart 7 makes clear.
Prices by industries
Over-all price movements are the result of a continuous stream of price
changes in individual industries—upward and downward. In industries
where productivity rises slowly, unit labor costs tend to rise, while in industries where productivity rises more rapidly, unit labor costs tend to fall.
During periods of expansion, industries with rising unit labor costs can
easily pass them along in higher prices. But achievement of over-all price
stability requires that savings resulting from faster than average increases
in productivity be passed along in lower prices. Chart 8, which compares
price and productivity trends for 19 manufacturing industries for which
satisfactory physical output data are available, suggests that both developments have generally occurred during the current expansion.
However, in some instances, industries with large productivity gains made
only token reductions in prices, or even raised them. Except where these
movements reflect divergent movements in nonlabor costs, such cases give
an upward bias to the over-all price level. Moreover, they tend to produce
57
Chart 8
Price and Productivity Trends
19 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
DAIRY PRODUCTS
METAL CANS
APPAREL
PAINTS
SOAP AND
DETERGENTS
STEEL
TEXTILES «
• CEMENT
PAPER AND PRODUCTS ALUMINUM MILL SHAPES
LUMBER
PETROLEUM
RUBBER PRODUCTS
-1
PLASTIC MATERIALS
SYNTHETIC FIBERS
MEAT PRODUCTS
•
#
•
TIRES AND TUBES
• HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES
-2
RADIO AND TELEVISION
-3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
PRODUCTIVITY TREND-PERCENT PER YEAR 2/
^AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX, 1959-64.
^AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN OUTPUT PER EMPLOYEE MAN-HOUR, 1959-64.
SOURCE: COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (BASED ON DATA FROM DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM).
unusually high profits (as in the automobile industry) which serve as inviting
targets for wage increases that exceed the general, economy-wide trend of
productivity gains. If such wage increases were generalized, over-all price
stability would be threatened.
Despite occasional exceptions—as in automobiles and construction—the
general pattern of recent wage and price changes has closely approximated
the Government's wage-price guideposts.
To be sure, the guideposts have not been completely effective either in
stimulating all warranted price reductions, or in preventing some individual
wage and price increases that are not in accord with their criteria. Nevertheless, the very fact that representatives of both labor and management
have often explicitly indicated their compliance with, or tried to justify any
deviations from, the guidepost standards suggests that these standards have
had a useful influence.
In addition to any direct influence that they may have had on the wage
and price policies of unions and managements, the guideposts have helped
to create a new climate of opinion. Many groups in our society now have
a better understanding of the relationships between costs and prices. There
is increasing realization that it is appropriate—indeed necessary—to consider whether a proposed course of action, if followed by others in similar
circumstances, would be consistent with over-all stability. Decision makers
in unions and managements are increasingly aware both of the fact that
their decisions affect the public interest and of the fact that the public is
interested in their decisions.
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
In early 1961, the unemployment rate was close to 7 percent and it had
continuously exceeded 5 percent during the three preceding years. New
jobs were not being created fast enough to keep up with the expanding
labor force.
From 1961 to 1962, the expansion of output was rapid, but gains in productivity also were high, as is typical after a recession. Nonetheless, employment increased by 1.2 million (Table 6). Because growth of the labor force
TABLE 6.—Changes in employment, 1961-64
Type of change and period
Total»
Teenagers
Nonwhites
Adult whites
Change in employment (thousands of persons):
1961-62 a
1962-63
1963-64
1,203
963
1,548
237
-38
268
159
137
246
813
847
1,075
1.8
1.4
2.2
4.6
—.7
5.1
2.3
1.9
3.4
1.5
1.5
1.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
19.7
-3.9
17.3
13.2
14.2
15.9
67.6
88.0
69.4
Percentage change in employment:
1961-62.
1962-63.
1963-64
._
Percent of total employment change:
1961-62..1962-63
1963-64
..
1
Detail shown will not add to totals because of duplication (nonwhites include some teenagers).
2 Data for 1962 are adjusted for comparability with data for 1961.
NOTE.—Teenagers include those 14-19 years of age; nonwhites, 14 years of age and over; and white adults
20 years and over.
Sources: Department of Labor and Council of Economic Advisers.
was relatively small, the over-all unemployment rate fell from 6.7 percent
to 5.6 percent. From 1962 to 1963, employment increased by less than one
million—enough to absorb the increase in the labor force but not enough to
reduce the unemployment rate.
In 1964, the faster rate of economic expansion brought an increase of
1.5 million jobs. Since this was in excess of the increase in the labor force,
the unemployment rate fell to 5.2 percent for the year as a whole (and to 5.0
59
percent by the end of the year). There was a net gain of 1.7 million nonagricultural jobs, but falling agricultural employment opportunities—continuing a long-term trend—offset 0.2 million of the increase.
Employment among teenagers and Negroes
Between 1962 and 1963, when employment rose only enough to offset the
increase in the labor force, job gains were heavily concentrated among
adult whites (20 years of age and older). Teenage employment actually
declined, and increases for Negroes were limited.
The situation was different in 1964. There was a dramatic shift not only
in the size but also in the character of the employment gains. Negroes and
teenagers began to find jobs in larger numbers, and their percentage of the
total increase in employment was considerably above that in 1963.
These data illustrate an unhappy fact: When the job market is
slack and production grows only enough to create jobs for the normal increase in the labor force, adult whites secure the largest share of the new
jobs, while unemployment among teenagers and Negroes is high and probably rising. (Similarly, during recessions, when the absolute number of jobs
declines, Negroes and teenagers suffer the heaviest employment losses, and
their unemployment rates rise much faster than those of adult whites.) As
long as jobs are scarce and job applicants abundant, many employers give
automatic preference to adult whites. Those without previous job experience and members of minority groups go to the end of the hiring line.
Growth of the teenage labor force in 1964 far exceeded any previous
increase, but jobs for teenagers increased even more, and the over-all unemployment rate for this group—still far too high—fell only slightly. Better
education and vocational preparation of teenagers, and reduced discrimination against minority groups, can significantly enlarge the employment
opportunities open to any individual teenager or Negro. But adequate and
permanent improvements in the high unemployment rates of these groups
clearly require that recessions be avoided and that economic expansion
be sufficiently rapid to keep over-all unemployment low.
Unemployment in areas of chronic depression
In 1960, 19 major labor market areas in the United States had substantial
and persistent unemployment, with rates of 6 percent or higher, and an
unemployment history much worse than the national average. From 1961
to 1963, unemployment in these areas declined from 10.3 percent to 6.4
percent, but a major part of the decline was due to a shrinking labor force.
Some workers moved to other areas, and others simply withdrew from the
labor force.
From 1963 to 1964, there was a further decline in unemployment, to 5.5
percent, but there was a significant change: the labor force in these areas
60
reversed a five-year decline and started to increase.
by 33,000 and employment increased by 62,000.
The labor force rose
Although the 1964 record of gains in employment is heartening, the
American economy still faces major employment problems:
(1) Five percent of the labor force, 3.7 million persons, remains
unemployed.
(2) The increase in the civilian labor force, which has averaged
about 1 million a year over the past four years, is expected to average 1 l/i
million a year between 1964 and 1970.
(3) In 1965, the number of 18-year-olds will increase by almost
1 million; and growth of the teenage labor force will be approximately
500,000—double its growth in 1964.
(4) The unemployment rate for Negroes remains more than double
that for whites.
(5) Unemployment is far too high in many local labor markets.
While full solution of these and related problems requires many kinds
of policies, the maintenance of a high rate of growth in over-all demand
is a necessary and crucial element.
CONTRIBUTION OF FEDERAL FISCAL
AND MONETARY POLICIES
Federal policies have made a major and continuing contribution to the
great achievements of the American economy during the past four years.
These policies were not laid down in one master plan early in 1961 and
then carried out on a predetermined schedule. There have been delays,
surprises, and a need to adapt policies to changing events; but policies have
had a unified direction and strategy. They have consistently reflected a
number of basic ideas shared by those responsible for Federal economic
policies. These basic ideas include the following:
(1) A firm belief that the United States must make optimum use of
the tremendous productive capacity of its economy; conversely, an abhorrence—for both human and economic reasons—of the waste of resources
and opportunities involved in a prolonged underutilization of that capacity;
(2) A recognition that Federal purchases, taxes, and transfer payments are a major force, along with monetary policy, in determining the
strength of the total market demand for productive resources;
(3) A full understanding of the key role of private investment in
total market demand and in the long-term growth of incomes, and of the
need for adequate profit incentives to stimulate this investment;
(4) A recognition that expanding consumption is necessary if increasing investment and over-all growth are to be maintained;
757-981<
6i
(5) A belief that vigorous efforts are necessary to restore equilibrium
in the balance of payments;
(6) A determination to achieve reasonable price stability in order
to preserve equity at home and to improve our international competitive
position both at home and abroad,
(7) A conviction that, if they are to be effective, policies cannot
respond passively to what has already transpired, but must try to foresee
and shape future developments, remaining flexible and ready to change
speed or direction yet holding to fixed goals;
(8) A belief that the American people share these ideas and are
ready to support imaginative but carefully considered innovations in public
policy.
These basic ideas have been applied during the past four years in a
number of areas of economic policy. The following sections relate to their
application in the fields of fiscal and monetary policy.
FISCAL POLICY, 1961-64
The instruments of fiscal policy—purchases of goods and services, transfer
payments, subsidies, grants-in-aid, and taxes—are the Government's most
powerful tools for expanding or restraining over-all demand. Federal purchases of goods and services are directly part of market demand, and—
through their impact on production, employment, and income—encourage
further private consumption and investment expenditures. Taxes, transfers, subsidies, and grants-in-aid affect consumption and investment through
their influence on disposable personal income, after-tax profits, incentives,
and State and local expenditures.
The basic task of Federal fiscal policy is to help to provide a total market
demand for goods and services that neither exceeds nor falls short of the
economy's productive capacity at full employment. Maintaining this continuous balance between demand and capacity normally involves two basic
requirements. First, since total productive capacity grows steadily over
time, total demand also must grow. Second, since fluctuations in private
demand occur independently of Federal policy, these fluctuations must be
offset in order to avoid dips or surges that could touch off recession or inflation.
Since 1960, a third requirement has been added as the result of earlier
failures to meet the first two: the need to eliminate the large gap that developed in the late 1950*8 between potential output and demand. Thus, in the
last four years the main challenge to U.S. policy has been to stimulate a
massive growth in total demand, sufficient not merely to keep up but to
catch up with the growth of productive capacity. During the past four
years, fiscal policy has been dominated by this purpose. In addition to a
growth of $21 billion in Federal expenditures (first quarter 1961 to fourth
quarter 1964), reductions in tax liabilities now in effect leave about $16
62
billion more a year in private hands than would be the case under 1960
tax rates.
As previous Annual Reports have shown, the stimulus provided by a given
budget cannot be measured by the realized surplus or deficit. Since tax
revenues and some expenditures automatically vary with economic activity,
the realized surplus or deficit reflects the automatic effect of these variations, as well as discretionary actions on the part of the Federal Government. To distinguish the two effects, revenues and expenditures are calculated at a fixed level of economic activity—usually the full-employment
level. At any given time, the larger the surplus at full employment, the
more restrictive is fiscal policy; changes in the full-employment surplus
or deficit indicate whether fiscal policy has, on balance, moved in an expansionary or a restrictive direction. This concept cannot measure perfectly
the effect of a given budgetary change because it does not reflect changes in
the composition of the budget. Moreover, a rise in the level of the budget
may have a stimulating effect even with no change in the full-employment
surplus. But the full-employment surplus is the best simple measure available and is a useful tool of analysis.
For the calendar year 1960, the Federal budget, on a national income and
product account basis, showed an actual surplus of $3.5 billion, but the
full-employment surplus was about $13 billion (Chart 9). Given the
extent of the unutilized human and material resources, this surplus obviously
needed to be reduced.
During 1961 a sharp increase in expenditures had an expansionary impact
on the economy. As this increase was in excess of built-in gains in
revenue at full employment, a first step was taken toward reducing the
full-employment surplus. After the initial increase, the growth of expenditures continued at a substantial though slowing pace through the
following two years. From the first quarter of 1961 to the fourth quarter
of 1963, total Federal expenditures, which include transfer payments,
subsidies, interest, and grants-in-aid, as well as purchases of goods and
services, increased by $17 billion, or roughly 17 percent. These expenditures, undertaken primarily to strengthen defense and space programs but
also to provide for unmet civilian needs, directly raised the level of aggregate
demand and were highly stimulating to the rest of the economy.
The stimulus of fiscal policy was not limited to the expenditure side of
the budget. Two tax-reducing measures were adopted to provide a needed
long-run stimulus to lagging private investment. New depreciation guidelines were announced in July 1962, and an investment tax credit was enacted
by Congress in the Revenue Act of 1962. The net effect of these two
measures was to increase by $21/2 billion the annual cash flow to corporations
and to increase appreciably the after-tax rate of return on new investment
projects, thus providing a needed long-range stimulus to investment.
Through a combination of expenditure increases and tax reductions, the
full-employment surplus was reduced to about $6/2 billion in 1962.
63
Chart 9
Federal Surplus or Deficit:
Actual and Full-Employment Estimates
NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
BILLIONS O F
DOLLARS J /
20
SURPLUS
15
I FULL-EMPLOYMENT
I ESTIMATE
ACTUAL
10
U
-5
DEFICIT
I960
I
I
I
-10
1961
1962
1963
1964
CALENDAR HALF YEARS
J/SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, BUREAU OF THE BUDGET, AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
Although it had been hoped that these measures, together with an accommodating monetary policy, might stimulate sufficient recovery of private
spending to bring total demand to full-employment levels, events proved
otherwise. Unemployment fell to 5.6 percent by the beginning of 1962 but
then held close to that unsatisfactory level. Major expansionary fiscal action
was needed to strengthen and sustain the upswing.
Thus in August 1962, President Kennedy reported to the Nation that
a major tax reduction would be proposed to accelerate the economy's
progress toward full employment. This recommendation constituted a milestone in the use of fiscal policy to meet the requirements of the Employment
Act, as well as a dramatic innovation in the choice of fiscal instruments.
However, Congressional action on the proposal was not completed in
1963. Since Federal expenditures were not rising as rapidly as in the
two preceding years, the full-employment surplus began to rise again.
Thus the Federal Government provided no further stimulus to the economy
as full-employment revenues rose (because of the normal trend growth of
full-employment GNP) more rapidly than expenditures.
64
By the fourth quarter of 1963, the full-employment surplus reached $11
billion, and even the realized budget, on a national income and product
account basis showed a surplus. At the same time, output remained about
$30 billion short of potential and the unemployment rate at 5.6 percent.
The aggregate demand generated by business, consumers, and governments had not been adequate to move the economy even close to full employment. The future course of the expansion was in doubt, and enactment of President Kennedy's tax cut recommendation had become increasingly urgent.
REVENUE ACT OF 1964 AND ITS EFFECTS
Under the vigorous leadership of President Johnson, the tax-reduction
bill was enacted early in 1964. At 1964 levels of income, personal income
tax liabilities were cut by $6.7 billion and corporate profits tax liabilities by
$1.7 billion. With further reductions in rates taking effect in 1965, the cuts
in liabilities will be $11 billion for individuals and $3 billion for corporations.
Withholding rates on wages and salaries were reduced from 18 percent to
14 percent in one stage in early March 1964, rather than in two stages.
This meant that most of the tax reduction was immediately reflected in
consumers' disposable incomes.
The Council's 1964 Annual Report estimated that a personal tax cut of
nearly $9 billion would result in a direct increase of more than $8 billion
in consumption. Subsequent rounds of spending and respending would
add another $10 billion to consumption—producing a tax cut "multiplier"
of about two. Thus, through increased consumption alone, GNP would
ultimately be raised by more than $18 billion above what it would have
been in the absence of the tax cut.
The evidence to date indicates that this expectation is being borne
out. After rising to 7.9 percent in the second quarter of 1964, the ratio
of personal saving to disposable income had fallen back to a relatively
normal 7.1 percent in the third quarter, suggesting that the gains of
disposable income resulting from tax reduction were already being largely
spent for the purchase of consumer goods and services. (A jump in the
saving rate in the fourth quarter appears to be attributable to delayed
deliveries of automobiles as a result of strikes.) The tax cut directly
added $7.7 billion to disposable income in 1964, and the addition was
running at an annual rate of $9yi billion by the end of the year. The
Council estimates that the total increase in consumer spending alone resulting from the tax cut's impact was $9 billion in 1964, and had reached an
annual rate of $13 billion by the end of the year. Subsequent rounds
of spending and respending will bring the full impact on consumption
in 1965 and beyond.
From 1963 to 1964, GNP grew 4.5 percent after adjustment for price
changes. The above calculations suggest that, in the absence of the tax
cut, the growth would have been only 3.0 percent, even if it is assumed
that without the tax cut all expenditures other than consumption would
have been just what they in fact were.
These figures, however, underestimate the full beneficial effects of the cut.
Tax policies were also prominent among the factors that helped to generate
a $5.0 billion advance (current prices) in business fixed investment between
the fourth quarters of 1963 and 1964. The depreciation reform and the
investment credit of 1962 continued to provide added strength to capital
spending. The Revenue Act of 1964 reduced the basic rates of corporation
taxes and, by increasing consumer demand, gave businessmen added assurance of sustained expansion and expanded markets. This assurance was a
stimulating factor, even before tax cuts added to sales or cash flow. As
the tax cut raised cash flows and operating rates during the year, business
investment plans were revised upward.
Since the full effects on business investment of greater sales, improved
profits, and larger cash flow are accomplished only after a substantial lag,
and since part of the tax cut becomes effective in 1965, much of the rise in
investment stimulated by the 1964 tax cut is still ahead of us. This extra
investment will have multiplied effects on total production through the route
of expanded incomes and larger consumer spending.
MONETARY POLICY IN THE EXPANSION
Monetary policy operates by changing the availability and cost of credit
to businesses, consumers, and governments. These changes are accomplished
most directly by affecting the reserves available to commercial banks; but
through its impact on bank policies and financial markets, monetary policy
affects the general credit structure of the economy.
Monetary policy's impact on expenditures, and thus on employment,
comes when businesses, consumers, or governments—finding borrowing (or
liquidation of financial assets) easier or harder, less costly or more costly—
are induced to spend more or less than they would otherwise have spent.
Tools and objectives
Throughout the current expansion, monetary policy has supported the
objectives of fiscal policy by maintaining a ready availability of credit, thus
accommodating an expansion of demand. It has pursued this objective
while meeting the requirement to maintain an appropriate relationship
between short-term interest rates in the United States and in other major
money markets in order to dampen the outflow of volatile short-term funds.
As many European countries have been using monetary policy to restrain
demand, their central banks have maintained higher interest rates than
would have been appropriate in the United States. Although U.S. shortterm interest rates have been nildged upward to prevent an outflow of
interest-sensitive funds seeking higher rewards abroad, policy has endeavored
66
to avoid transmission of these pressures to the long-term market (more
crucial for domestic investment) and to maintain a ready availability of
credit relative to demand.
The success of this policy can be seen most clearly by comparing the pattern of yields that has emerged during the current expansion with that
during previous upswings (Chart 10). During the recession of 1960-61,
the Treasury bill rate was kept considerably higher than in either the 1954
or the 1958 recession. Subsequently, however, bill rates rose more gradually,
and monetary policy remained—in many respects—significantly easier than
in previous expansionary periods. However, the general level of interest
rates is higher than at any period since the early 1930's.
One indication that credit conditions have remained relatively easy during the current expansion is the fact that commercial banks have consistently been kept in a positive net free reserve position, in sharp contrast to
the expansions of 1954-57 and 1958-60 (Chart 11). As credit demand
has strengthened, total bank reserves have been steadily increased by Federal
Reserve operations to prevent the banking system as a whole from having
to borrow heavily to meet the increase in required reserves. The annual
growth in total reserves, adjusted for changes in reserve requirements, has
Chart
10
Selected Interest Rates
PERCENT
8
CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGES
ON HOMES U
6
\
4
-
CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
(New Issues)
^ ' ^
%
v\^"v %%% ,, #iiiMti ,,,,,
/*
^S 1 ' 1 *
«««•
HIGH GRADE MUNICIPAL BONDS
-
3 - M O N T H TREASURY BILLS
t
i
1954
l
l
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
Is SERIES BEGINS IN 1954; NEW AND EXISTING HOMES THROUGH 1960 I, AND NEW HOMES ONLY THEREAFTER.
NOTE: VERTICAL LINES SHOW GNP PEAK QUARTERS; 1953 I I , 1957 I I I , AND 1960 I I .
SOURCES: FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION (FHA), BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
SYSTEM, MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, AND STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.
67
-
Chart
11
Free Reserves in Three Postwar Expansions
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS!/
800
600 400 -
200 -
-200 -400 -600
6
8
10
12
14
QUARTERS AFTER T R O U G H
1/ AVERAGE OF DAILY FREE RESERVES OF MEMBER BANKS (EXCESS RESERVES LESS BORROWINGS).
TROUGH QUARTERS FOR GNP WERE 1954 I I , 1958 I, AND 1961 I .
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
averaged 3.6 percent since the end of I960, in contrast to an average growth
of 1.8 percent during the preceding seven years. The initial steps to maintain this expansion of reserves, while short-term rates were being raised,
came when the Federal Reserve began providing reserves in part through
open market operations in Treasury notes and bonds in early 1961.
Successive increases in maximum permissible interest rates on time and
savings deposits in January 1962, July 1963, and November 1964 served the
double purpose of permitting domestic banks to compete more effectively
with foreign banks for deposits and of channeling private savings and
business liquidity into time and savings deposits. These funds then flowed,
in large part, into longer-term loans and securities, maintaining a downward
pressure on longer-term yields. In the process, these higher ceiling rates
also permitted commercial banks to compete more actively for domestic
funds. This contributed to the growth of bank deposits relative to other
forms of asset holding and of bank credit relative to other sources of lending.
68
The expansion in total bank credit has exceeded the growth of bank
reserves, as time deposits—which now require a reserve backing of 4
percent—have risen relative to demand deposits, which require a backing
of 12 to 16% percent. Since the end of 1960, bank credit has risen at an
average rate of 8 percent a year, thus increasing somewhat faster than
the advance in GNP, in contrast to previous business upswings.
The need to raise short-term interest rates for balance of payments
reasons prompted a series of shifts toward moderately less credit ease.
These occurred in December 1961, June and December 1962, May-July
1963, and August 1964. In July 1963 and November 1964, the discount rate was increased as well. While short-term rates were raised,
the steps taken to assure the availability of adequate credit helped to protect longer-term interest rates. As shown in Chart 10, longer-term yields
fell little during the 1960 recession, but they have been steadily resistant
to upward pressures during the expansion.
Debt management policies of the Treasury also have been directed toward supporting short-term interest rates. In each of the past four years,
the volume of bills issued by the Treasury accounted for half or more of
the total increase in the marketable debt. Meanwhile, the Treasury used
advance refunding operations to counteract the tendency for the passage
of time to shorten the maturity of the Federal debt.
Policy in 1964
In the past year, monetary policy continued to serve domestic expansion while helping to protect against outflows of short-term capital—
its effectiveness reinforced by growing public understanding of its objectives.
The basic guidelines of monetary policy remained essentially unchanged
between July 1963 (when the discount rate was raised from 3 to 3*4 percent
to support other new balance of payments measures) and the late summer
of 1964. At that time, the Federal Reserve moved to reduce reserves
slightly in order to tighten further the reins on the outflow of dollars. On
November 23, following the rise in the British bank rate, the Federal Reserve announced an increase in the discount rate to 4 percent as a precautionary move to forestall capital outflows. This was accompanied by a
rise in the bill rate to about 3.8 percent.
Despite these moves to raise short-term interest rates for balance of payments purposes, yields on long-term securities remained remarkably stable
during the year. There was a brief period of rising yields in March, reflecting uneasiness over possible sharp increases in demands for credit after
the tax cut, and again in September and October over the implications of
the British balance of payments problem. But in each instance, yields subsequently receded; at the year end, average yields on long-term Treasury
bonds were within .02 percentage points of their low for the year.
Meanwhile, bank credit grew by 7.9 percent, almost exactly matching the
expansion in 1963. The money supply, which had increased by 3.8 percent
69
in 1963, grew by 4.0 percent in 1964, despite the sharper step-up in growth
of GNP. The growth of money supply plus time and savings deposits of
commercial banks was slower in 1964 than in the preceding year, when time
and savings deposits grew more rapidly in response to the appreciable relative rise in interest rates paid on them, and when monetary policy was easier.
APPROACHING EXTERNAL BALANCE
During the past four years, the external payments position of the United
States improved. For most of 1964, the balance of payments deficit on
regular transactions ran at an average annual rate of little more than half
the $3.9 billion recorded in 1960 (Table 7). However, while the improvement was substantial and occurred during a period when the U.S. domestic
economy enjoyed strong and sustained expansion, it is by no means enough.
Moreover, it now appears that an unusual combination of factors resulted in
a sizable rise in the deficit during the fourth quarter. Thus, the balance of
payments continues to require serious attention.
When the Kennedy-Johnson Administration took office in early 1961,
the United States had just experienced its third successive year of large
payments deficits. Such deficits did not mean that the country was "living
beyond its means" in terms of its use of resources or that the wealth position
of the United States was impaired, for our exports of goods and services
were substantially in excess of our imports and our total assets abroad were
rising faster than our liabilities. The deficit did, however, represent a decline in net U.S. liquidity that could not be permitted to persist, particularly
in view of the special role of the dollar as a major reserve currency. There
were indications, moreover, that the underlying competitive position of U.S.
export products had been deteriorating for a number of years, suggesting
possible further increases in the payments deficit. And in late 1960, international currency markets had become unsettled as speculative outflows of
short-term dollar funds increased and the price of gold on the London gold
market rose sharply.
The need for action to improve the U.S. external balance was thus readily
apparent. At the same time, however, doubts were being widely expressed
that an improvement in the payments position would be feasible if the new
Administration were to pursue its announced goal of renewing economic
expansion. Indeed, the view was widely held that the rise in imports normally associated with economic expansion would necessarily worsen our
international accounts.
This view was rejected by the Administration. Instead, policies were
based on a fundamental conviction that sound growth of the domestic economy was compatible with longer-run improvement in the balance of payments. Only a strong, resilient, and dynamic economy, characterized by
reasonable price stability, would permit the gains in productivity and provide
the spur to innovation needed for an underlying improvement in our international competitive position. Moreover, a vigorous and dynamic U.S.
70
1
T A B L E 7.—United States balance of payments, 1960-64
[Billions of dollars]
Line
Type of transaction
1960
1961
1962
1963
3.9
5.6
5.1
5.7
Seasonally
adjusted
annual rate
8.1
4.7
19.5
17.5
5.4
19.9
17.7
4.4
20.6
18.2
5.0
22.0
19.3
6.4
24.7
21.8
1.9
-14.7
2.2
-14.5
2.4
-16.1
2.7
-17.0
2.8
-18.3
1.8
2.3
2.7
3.0
-.7
3.0
3.3
2.9
3.3
3.8
4.0
-.8
-2.1
Regular transactions:
Balance on goods and servicesBalance on trade
Merchandise exports
Commercial exports of goods
Exports of goods financed by Government grants and capital
Merchandise imports
..
Balance on nonmilitary services
Investment income, n e t 2
Other commercial services, net
Service exports financed by Government grants and capital
Military expenditures, n e t 8
Remittances and pensions
Government grants and capital outflows.
(Transactions involving no direct dollar
outflows from the United States)
(Dollar payments to foreign countries and
international institutions)
Scheduled repayments on U.S. Government
loans plus changes in associated liabilities
1964: First
3 quarters
.3
.4
.5
-2.7
-2.6
-2.4
-2.2
-.7
-.7
-.7
-.8
-.8
-3.4
-4.1
-4.3
-4.5
-4.2
-2.3
-2.9
-3.2
-3.6
-3.5
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
-.9
-.7
.6
.7
.7
.7
.7
Long-term private capital, net
-2.1
-2.2
-2.6
-3.2
4-3.3
U.S. capital, net 8
Foreign capital, net.
Short-term private capital, net..
-2.5
.4
-2.6
.4
-2.9
.3
-3.6
.3
-3.6
-2.0
-1.4
-1.4
-.7
-.8
-.8
-1.0
-1.1
-.3
-.5
Balance on regular transactions.
-3.9
-3.1
-3.6
-3.3
-2.0
Balance on regular transactions before seasonal adjustment
_
-3.9
-3.1
-3.6
-3.3
Unadjusted
total
-1.5
.7
1.4
1.3
.4
.7
1.2
Errors and omissions
Special Government transactions, net.
Debt prepayment and advances on military
exports
___
Net sales of nonmarketable, nonconvertible
bonds and notes
Net sales of nonmarketable, convertible bonds
and notes
.3
-.1
.7
Balance including receipts from special transactions
other than convertible securities
-3.9
-2.4
-2.2
-2.6
Balance including receipts from all special transactions
-3.9
-2.4
-2.2
-1.9
-.1
-.1
.9
()
.6
.5
-.1
.7
.5
1.0
1.1
.2
Gold (decrease, + )
Convertible currencies (decrease, + )
I M F gold tranche position (decrease, +)-•
Changes in selected liabilities:
To foreign central banks and governments
(increase, + )
To private holders and international and
regional organizations (increase, -f)
1
2
s
4
.2
.7
(«)
1.7
.4
1.4
6
.3
-1.4
-1.1
8
-.1
Excludes U.S. military grant aid and subscriptions to the IM F.
Includes Government.
Military expenditures abroad less military sales.
Includes increase in U.S. Government liabilities associated with Columbia River development project.
« For detail see Table 8.
« Less than $50 million.
NOTE.—See Appendix Table B-79 for additional detail.
Details will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
economy could be an attractive magnet for private investment funds,
thereby leading to an improvement in the U.S. capital account. While
maintenance of the dollar as a strong reserve and trading currency required
that major attention be given to the balance of payments, it was recognized
that the strength of the dollar depends fundamentally on the continued
vigor of the American economy in a setting of stable prices.
It was clear, however, that economic expansion alone could not bring
about the needed improvement in our external position, particularly in view
of continuing U.S. commitments for the defense of the free world and assistance to the developing countries. An array of special policy measures
was thus required to permit simultaneous progress toward domestic expansion and external balance, in ways that would minimize any conflict with
the basic longer-range U.S. goal of growing freedom in world trade and
payments. Only a flexible and imaginative combination of a wide range of
policy instruments could serve these purposes.
The various actions taken to raise domestic demand and to adapt monetary policy to the dual requirements of external balance and domestic expansion have been discussed above. Other measures taken in 1961 and 1962
and reinforced in mid-1963 included more direct efforts to stimulate exports,
to reduce the Government's contribution to the payments deficit through
its overseas expenditures, to reduce outflows of private capital, and to
moderate the growth of tourist outlays abroad. New techniques were
devised for financing the deficit in ways that would minimize gold outflows
and strengthen confidence in the dollar. In addition, increased cooperation
among financial and economic authorities here and abroad helped to
strengthen the defense of international currencies against speculative attacks.
The record of the past four years has demonstrated the essential validity
of this approach. While imports of goods and nonmilitary services did, in
fact, rise by about $5 billion, in line with the expansion of the domestic product between 1960 and 1964, exports of goods and services (excluding exports
financed by the Government and including earnings on investments abroad)
increased by nearly $ 7 ^ billion. Gross outflows of Government capital have
continued to rise moderately, but the net impact of all Government programs on the payments deficit has been reduced by about $1.1 billion. The
over-all improvement in the balance of payments attributable to these various
factors approaches the total payments deficit in 1960.
Despite these gains, the decline in the deficit has been less rapid than had
been hoped in 1961. The principal reason has been the relatively large rise
in private capital outflows—an element of the balance of payments which
might have been expected to advance less rapidly or even to decline in a
period of rising domestic activity. While changes in the capital account
are interrelated with other components in the balance of payments—for
example, some capital outflows serve directly to finance our exports—and
therefore should not be viewed in isolation, the over-all magnitude of capital
outflows by mid-1963 had become clear cause for concern. This led to the
72
adoption of special remedial measures, notably the imposition of the Interest Equalization Tax on purchases of new and outstanding foreign securities
by U.S. investors.
In 1964, with foreign demands strong, the combination of influences and
measures referred to above produced a continued reduction in the U.S.
deficit on regular transactions. Further, this smaller deficit was financed
to an unusually large extent by increases in private rather than official holdings of short-term balances, and outflows of gold were the smallest since 1957.
Moreover, the strength of the multilateral currency arrangements worked
out in recent years was dramatically demonstrated late in 1964 when, following a massive speculative attack against sterling, a $3 billion credit was
extended to the United Kingdom by an 11-nation group and the Bank for
International Settlements, with the United Sates taking a prominent part.
The progress achieved during 1964 further strengthened confidence in
the dollar. Yet there are clouds in the record for the year that cannot be
ignored and that raise new questions for the future. In particular, U.S.
purchases of newly issued foreign securities as well as long-term bank loans
to foreigners were unusually large in the latter part of the year, operating
to produce a higher deficit in the fourth quarter.
The remainder of this chapter will deal with a number of key elements
in the changing international position of the United States during the past
four years: the gains in U.S. exports and in our competitive position; the
reduction of net outflows on Government account; the shifting pattern of
private capital flows; the development of new methods of financing our
deficit; and the progress in international financial cooperation. The related discussion in Chapter 2 will then look toward the future of the U.S.
balance of payments as well as toward the longer-range directions of international trade, aid, and financial arrangements and policies.
GROWTH OF U.S. EXPORTS
The growth in U.S. exports during the past four years—and especially
since the middle of 1963—has been a most welcome development. Between 1960 and 1964, commercial exports increased by $4.3 billion, and
those financed by Government grants and capital accounted for a rise of
nearly $1 billion more (Table 7). Although a small part of this growth
must be attributed to special circumstances, such as extraordinary wheat
sales to Eastern and Western Europe last winter, the expansion was, for
the most part, broadly based in commodity composition and augurs well
for the future. Moreover, it was widely spread around the world, with
sharp increases to all major areas.
Several reasons explain the substantial improvement. Production and
incomes have grown rapidly in most of the world, raising total world trade.
Moreover, the competitive position of American products has been improved
by price stability at home. These factors have been reinforced by various
Government programs to promote exports and by the practice of tying an
73
increasing proportion of U.S. foreign assistance funds to purchases in the
United States.
The dollar value of free world exports rose at the rate of 6 percent a year
from 1960 to 1963, and by 10 percent, or $14 billion, between mid-1963
and mid-1964. It is now double what it was only ten years ago. This
increase in trade reflects continuing prosperity and economic growth abroad,
particularly in Europe and Japan, and during the last two years in many
raw material producing countries.
As the world's largest exporting and importing nation, the United States
has benefited from the rapid growth in world trade. During the past year,
however, not only have our total exports increased sharply; they have
increased somewhat more rapidly than the exports of many of our competitors. Our recent export performance thus appears to reflect at least
some improvement in our relative competitive position.
A full evaluation of changing competitiveness in world markets is, of
course, extremely difficult. International competitiveness involves many
dimensions. Quality, product design, promotion expenditures, financing
arrangements, service facilities, delivery terms—all play some role in determining which exporter receives an order. But it is clear that the movement of U.S. prices relative to those of our competitors is a matter of great
importance. And in recent years, the record of U.S. prices has been
excellent. Since 1958, wholesale prices of industrial products have risen
less in the United States than in any other industrial country—although
devaluations in France and Canada helped to offset the impact of higher
domestic prices on these countries' exports. Unit labor costs in manufacturing have also risen less here than in any other major country.
But while our domestic costs and prices have been more stable than those
of our major competitors in recent years, our relative share of total world
trade in manufactured goods—which had fallen rather sharply until 1959—
continued to decline moderately for several years thereafter. This in part
reflected the fact that movements of export prices differed in some countries
from movements of over-all industrial prices. In addition, the creation of
the European Economic Community (EEC) and the European Free Trade
Association (EFTA)—which the United States welcomed—and the accompanying progressive elimination of internal tariff barriers within each group
of countries were bound to result in increased trade within the EEC and the
EFTA. This increase served to expand total international trade and tended
to hold down or reduce the share, though not the total value, of exports from
nonmember countries. However, the U.S. share of total world exports of
manufactures, excluding intra-EEC trade, and its share of total exports of
all commodities have been stable or slightly improving since 1959.
The apparent improvement in the competitive performance of American
products has been aided by a number of Government programs to promote exports. The export expansion drive has assisted several thousand
American firms to enter export markets for the first time. Through Trade
74
Centers and the sponsorship of commercial exhibits, the Department of
Commerce has helped American businessmen to introduce their products
abroad; the insurance and financing programs of the Export-Import Bank
have been a further aid. Policies to promote price stability, reviewed in the
next chapter, are obviously of utmost significance for the continuing growth
of U.S. exports as well as for the improvement of our ability to compete with
imports of manufactured foreign goods. But while all of these policies have
proved helpful in stimulating exports, private initiative alone can provide
the new and improved products, at moderate prices, which are essential to
continuing strength in the American export position.
GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS ABROAD
The major elements in the Government's payments abroad are military
expenditures in support of our forces stationed overseas and grants and loans
under foreign assistance programs. These are the transactions over which
the Government is able to exert most direct control, and stringent efforts
have been made to reduce their impact on the balance of payments.
Since 1960, net military expenditures abroad have been reduced from
$2.7 to $2.1 billion, while direct payments abroad under Government economic assistance programs have been cut from $1.1 billion to $700 million—
an over-all saving of $1 billion. This improvement has been brought
about without curtailing assistance to the developing countries and without
sacrificing military commitments to our allies, and despite repeated foreign
crises which have required increased outlays for security. It reflects primarily the results and effects of a further tying of foreign aid procurement
to U.S. sources, streamlining of our overseas military forces, and increased
cash sales of military equipment to friendly countries.
CAPITAL MARKETS AND CAPITAL FLOWS
While the over-all balance of payments position of the United States has
shown definite improvement in the last four years, total net private U.S.
capital outflows have registered a substantial expansion. As Table 8 indicates, they amounted to $4.2 billion in 1961, declined to $3.4 billion in 1962,
but then rose again to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $5.5 billion in the
first half of 1963. Although a sharp reduction was recorded in the second
half of 1963, net private capital outflows in 1964 were again very large and
probably exceeded the 1963 total.
Large capital outflows have in part been required to finance growing
U.S. exports. Moreover, the establishment of convertibility and the growing confidence in the continued freedom of international payments have
led to a substantially greater international mobility of capital and a related
tendency toward increased integration of international financial markets. In
this context, our highly efficient, relatively low-cost, and readily accessible
long-term borrowing facilities have undoubtedly tended to add to the net
75
TABLE 8.—Recorded private United States capital outflows, 1960-64
[Millions of dollars 1]
1963
Type of capital
1960
1961
1962
First
half
1964
Second
half
First Third
half quarter
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
Total net capital outflows.
Long-term
Direct investment
New issues of foreign securities
Redemptions
Transactions in outstanding securities
Long-term bank claims
Other long-term claims
Short-term»..
3,885
4,180
3,434
5,530
3,084
5,662
2 4,867
2,537
2,624
2,881
4,478
2,668
3,164
2 3,655
1,674
555
-201
1,599
523
-148
1,654
1,076
-203
2,190
1,858
-186
1,586
642
-204
2,184
682
-184
2,076
564
-152
309
155
45
387
136
127
96
127
131
302
322
-8
-204
1,156
-308
-268
614
136
-148
1,044
2 271
1,348
1,556
553
1,052
416
2,498
1,212
Unadjusted annual rates
Bank credits
Commercial credits.
Liquid funds
Other items
610
163
579
-4
912
153
454
37
327
79
175
-28
122
174
622
24
782
342
-516
-82
1,010
252
1,114
12
372
400
208
-168
1 Outflow, +; inflow, - .
2 Financing of $255 million to Canada for Columbia River power development is included but not multiplied in deriving the third quarter annual rate.
* Breakdown of short-term capital in part based on estimates by the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted").
drain on our balance of payments. At the same time, the emergence of
a highly developed international money market has greatly increased the
volatility of interest-sensitive short-term funds.
Outflows of direct investment have shown a continuing rise; by 1964
they were one-third higher than in 1961. The share going to Western
Europe also continued to expand; in 1964 it was approximately two-thirds
of the total. The desire of American companies to establish or expand productive facilities close to rapidly growing European markets and inside the
EEC tariff walls continued to provide the major incentive.
In contrast to this pattern of steady growth in direct investments, U.S.
purchases of new foreign securities have undergone wide fluctuations in
recent years. The volume of new foreign issues in our markets bought by
Americans, which had averaged about $500-$600 million between 1959
and 1961, rose dramatically in 1962 to $1.1 billion and then in the first half
of 1963 soared further to an annual rate of almost $2 billion. Following the Administration's announcement in July 1963 of its intention to ask
for enactment of an Interest Equalization Tax, it dropped sharply to an
annual rate of about $600 million and remained at this level until the
autumn of 1964. After the actual enactment of the Interest Equalization
Tax in September 1964, there was a renewed spurt of new security issues by
Canadians (who are exempt from the Tax). However, for 1964 as a whole,
both the total of new foreign security issues and Canadian borrowings were
sharply below the rate reached in the first half of 1963.
Partly offsetting the decline in new issues of foreign securities has
been a sharp rise in outflows of long-term bank credit since the spring of
1963. Whereas such loans had averaged about $140 million from 1960 to
1962, their adjusted volume reached an annual rate of almost $1 billion in
the second half of 1963, without counting certain large takeovers of commercial claims from U.S. corporations. These outflows receded somewhat
in the first half of 1964, but rose to new high records later in the year.
The burgeoning of long-term bank loans over the past year and a half
clearly has reflected, among other factors, a spillover of demands from U.S.
security markets following the Interest Equalization Tax proposal. Further
impetus toward increases in such lending has been provided by tighter credit
in a number of foreign countries as a result of restrictive measures taken in
these countries early in 1964. These factors have also accounted for an important share of the substantial recent volume of short-term bank loans.
Outflows of U.S. owned liquid funds were very large in 1960, but receded
between 1961 and 1962 as speculative pressures subsided and as short-term
interest rates rose. Following the increase in the discount rate and in
interest rate ceilings on time deposits in mid-1963, an actual inflow of
liquid short-term funds was recorded.
During the early part of 1964, however, a gradual tightening of money
market conditions abroad resulted in a renewed outflow of liquid U.S. funds
to Canada and Europe. The total outflow of liquid funds subsided in the
third quarter. Thereafter, the movement of these funds appears to have
followed an irregular course in response to a variety of partly conflicting
influences, including seasonal influences, the unsettlement of international
money markets as a result of the sterling crisis, and the changes in central
bank rates here and abroad.
FINANCING THE DEFICIT
As has already been indicated, the long-run strength of the American
dollar depends on the strength of the U.S. economy. More immediately,
however, the strength of the dollar abroad is intimately related to the magnitude of the U.S. balance of payments deficit and to evidence that the
deficit is being controlled and reduced. It also affects—and in turn is
affected by—the manner in which the deficit is financed.
During the past several years, the United States, in cooperation with a
number of countries in Western Europe, has developed a variety of new
techniques for financing deficits and absorbing surpluses. These new mechanisms have reduced the pressure on the gold reserves of deficit countries
and provided a greater variety of acceptable assets to surplus countries.
Thereby, deficit countries have been given more adequate time to carry
out necessary internal and external adjustments—within a framework of
757-981 O—65—6
77
sustained growth and with minimum resort to measures inimical to the expansion of the free movement of goods and capital among nations. At the
same time, surplus countries have been given greater opportunities for pursuing policies needed for orderly progress toward international payments
equilibrium. The new financing measures are not, however, substitutes for
progress in reducing the U.S. deficit.
In the past four years, there has been a striking shift in the roles played
by changes in U.S. monetary reserves and in foreign holdings of short- and
medium-term dollar liabilities in financing the remaining deficit. In 1960,
a decline of over $2 billion in monetary reserve assets (mainly gold)
financed more than half of our deficit, while liabilities to foreign official
accounts also rose sharply. In 1964, however, despite a continuing deficit,
the outflow of gold was small, and there was only a moderate rise in foreign
official holdings of liquid claims on the United States. Instead, partly as
a result of more attractive short-term interest rates in the United States
and continuing confidence in the dollar, foreign private businesses (including
commercial banks) and individuals added to their holdings of liquid dollar
assets. Such additions to private holdings of dollar assets in the United
States financed about half of the U.S. deficit on regular transactions in
1964.
To mitigate mounting balance of payments difficulties, the United States
began in 1959 to arrange for substantial advance repayments on loans made
to its European allies in the immediate postwar period. These advance repayments have continued. Since 1962, the United States has also sold
special medium-term, nonmarketable securities to foreign governments.
These bonds and notes, frequently denominated in the holder's currency,
offer an attractive alternative to further accumulation of gold or short-term
liquid dollar assets in the official reserves of surplus countries.
In addition to these special bilateral arrangements, the United States
began last year to make more direct use of the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), by drawing foreign currencies and selling them to countries wishing
to repay the Fund. Such IMF transactions, in effect, financed (net) about
$260 million of the U.S. deficit in 1964.
Neither our use of IMF resources nor the conclusion of special transactions with surplus countries has directly reduced the U.S. deficit on regular transactions. However, our ability to negotiate such arrangements
and other countries' willingness to participate in them have been both a
reflection and a source of confidence in the dollar.
BROADENED INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL COOPERATION
The success of the United States in reducing its deficit and in developing
improved methods of financing the deficit that still remains has helped to
create an atmosphere conducive to increased cooperation among the world's
central banks andfinancialofficials. Such cooperation, in turn, has strengthened the existing network of international monetary arrangements.
78
Within the past few years the facilities of the IMF have been broadened,
and agreement has been reached on the advisability of an increase in its
resources. In addition, the major industrial countries included in the
"Group of Ten" have declared their readiness to supply to the IMF up to
$6 billion of additional convertible currencies under the provisions of the
General Arrangements to Borrow; these supplementary facilities were first
utilized in 1964 in connection with the provision of IMF assistance to
the United Kingdom. Moreover, a network of reciprocal currency, or
"swap", arrangements among the major central banks has been developed
since 1962, primarily as a means of dealing with temporary speculative pressures. Such currency swaps make possible flexible and coordinated intervention in both spot and forward foreign exchange markets by monetary
authorities in the several countries. At the same time, the international
gold pool has served to reduce speculation in gold markets and thus helped
to conserve gold for monetary use. Frequent consultation among treasury
and central bank representatives of the major industrial countries has improved the ability of these officials to respond smoothly and effectively to
actual or potential disturbances in the international exchange markets.
During the past year, the capacity of these strengthened international
arrangements to deal decisively with sudden or sustained pressures against
major currencies was put to two severe tests. In March, the United States,
together with the IMF and several European countries, moved quickly to
provide a $1 billion package of credit to shore up Italy's then shaky balance
of payments; and, as noted earlier, a series of cooperative arrangements
was worked out in November to alleviate pressures on the British pound.
Cooperation among financial and economic authorities throughout the
world is, of course, also needed to create conditions that will discourage
the development of such pressures in the first instance. Cooperation
can foster a smoother and more responsive process of balance of payments
adjustment within an environment conducive to economic growth and
increased freedom of international trade and payments. Progress along
these lines has been made in recent years through frequent and constructive
discussions in a variety of forums, including the IMF, committees of the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the monthly
meetings of central bank governors at Basle held under the auspices of the
Bank for International Settlements.
Encouraging as these steps toward greater international monetary cooperation have been, it is clear that much remains to be done to improve
the process of international payments adjustment and that there is scope
for further strengthening of existing cooperative arrangements as well as
the international monetary mechanism. Various proposals designed to
accomplish these purposes are discussed in Chapter 2.
79
Chapter 2
Sustaining Prosperity in 1965 and Beyond
1
AST YEAR, responding to the largest fiscal stimulus ever provided in
J peacetime, businesses, workers, and consumers moved the American
economy strongly forward toward full realization of its vast productive
potential. The year 1965 promises to be the fifth year of continued economic expansion—an unprecedented record—bringing further substantial
gains in output, personal incomes, and corporate profits. Yet, as the year
opens, unemployment remains too high and will continue to be our major
economic problem. As a consequence, Government policies must still be
directed to closing the existing gap between current production and potential.
Meanwhile, the Nation's economic potential will be expanding rapidly as
productivity forges ahead and as record numbers of young people enter the
work force. Policies to provide education and skills are vital to help them
meet the needs of today's labor market. It is essential that these young
people enter the ranks of the employed. If this challenge is met, the new
workers will become eager consumers, helping to, maintain high employment levels with their demands for houses, cars, and other goods and services.
Partly because of their spending, private demand may become somewhat
stronger than it has been in the recent past. But the prior requirement and
the continuing need are for expansionary fiscal and monetary policies that
will help to open job opportunities for new labor force entrants and
for the currently unemployed. The prospects for 1965 and available clues
for the longer run are analyzed below, followed by an evaluation of the
policies required to capture the benefits of our expanding economic potential.
Our best defense against recurrent recession is a strong offense—constant
efforts to sustain expansion through general fiscal and monetary measures.
But recessions do not always cast their shadows far in advance. Insurance
is needed against a sudden downturn. By planning now for tax and expenditure measures that can be quickly enacted and executed should the
need arise, we can lessen the possibilities of recessions and minimize their
severity should they occur.
Full employment and rapid growth must be pursued along with reasonable
price stability. It is essential that the notable recent parallel between
private wage-price decisions and the public guideposts be maintained. The
significance of wage-price decisions for the achievement of all our economic
goals is discussed later in this chapter.
80
Prospects and policies for the domestic economy must also take account
of international economic objectives. The final section of this chapter
considers the requirements for policies to improve the balance in our international transactions, to remove barriers to world trade, to aid less developed
countries, and to strengthen the international monetary system.
A recurrent theme of the chapter is that the task of moving toward
several goals is far more demanding than the single-minded pursuit of just
one. In order to attain our domestic production and employment goals in
a climate of price stability, and at the same time to progress toward a better
international economic order, we must make the wisest use of the full range
of policy instruments.
THE GAP BETWEEN ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
The economy today has room for—and need for—more employment and
more production. The Employment Act's objectives of "maximum production" and "maximum employment" can only be achieved together. Unemployment is wasted manpower. Moreover, idle men are generally accompanied by idle machines. Thus, when the economy is marked by
excessive unemployment, it is producing below its full potential. The distance between our actual and our potential gross national product (GNP)
is one measure of the cost of high unemployment to the whole Nation.
The potential GNP of the U.S. economy measures the volume of goods
and services that our economy could produce if the unemployment rate were
at the interim target of 4 percent. Potential GNP cannot actually be
observed when unemployment is above 4 percent; and to estimate it is an
inherently difficult task. Even the best use of available data and of statistical and economic techniques will leave a margin of error in the calculation. Nevertheless, decisions on policies to stimulate or restrain the
over-all level of economic activity require a judgment on the gap between
current and potential production.
The Council has continuously examined the current and prospective
growth of potential in light of new data and emerging developments in the
economy. In its past three Annual Reports, the growth of potential GNP
since mid-1955 has been approximated by a trend line rising at a rate of 3^4
percent a year. It now appears that the growth of potential has recently
stepped up: A real growth rate of actual GNP somewhat greater than 3J/i
percent has been required to prevent a rise in the unemployment rate.
The precise causes of the recent pattern are not definitely established.
We may have already begun to experience a more rapid growth of the labor
force; the growth trend of productivity may have increased modestly; or
these two factors may have operated in combination. Nor is it yet clear
just when the recent pattern began. Despite these unsettled issues, the best
estimate of recent potential growth must be placed somewhat above 3J/2 percent and below 4 percent. In line with this conclusion, Chart 12 shows the
growth rate of potential GNP as 3 / 2 percent from 1955 through 1962 and
3 % percent thereafter.
8l
Chart 12
Gross National Product, Actual and Potential,
and Unemployment Rate
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (ratio scale)
700
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
IN 1964 PRICES
650
—
600
-
550
-
500
-
POTENTIAL V
S^
450
-
400
1
I
1
1954
1
1
1956
1
1
1
1958
1
1960
1
1962
1
1964
PERCENT
PERCENT
[ ]
GNP GAP AS PERCENT OF POTENTIAL (Left scale)
• — • UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2/(Right scale)
10
-5
I
I
1954
I
I
1956
I
I
1958
I
J
1960
I
1962
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES.
]J
y<2% TREND LINE THROUGH MIDDLE OF 1955 TO 1962IY; VA% TREND LINE THEREAFTER.
-^UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
ADVISERS.
82
1964
Potential GNP includes the output that could be produced by people who
would leave the ranks of the unemployed and also by many who are not
currently counted in the labor force but who would be at work if unemployment were reduced to 4 percent. Some people who are ready and willing
to work have concluded that jobs are not available; they are not actively seeking employment and are therefore not counted as unemployed.
According to past evidence, such "hidden unemployment" is concentrated
among women, young males, and older men. Men in the 25-54 age bracket
have a permanent attachment to the labor force; their labor force participation rates remain close to 97 percent regardless of changes in the availability of jobs. Participation rates of all the remaining age-sex groups are
substantially lower and are sensitive to changes in employment opportunities.
These relationships are indicated in Chart 13 which shows labor force
participation rates and the corresponding employment-population ratios
each year since 1952 for males aged 25-54 and for all other age-sex groups
combined.
Furthermore, productivity would be higher in a full-employment economy
than it actually is today; this is also reflected in the estimate of potential
GNP. In periods of underutilization, output per worker is depressed
because of the overhead nature of some clerical, professional, and managerial
employment and because plant and equipment are being operated at inefficient rates. During periods of movement toward full employment, rapid
gains in productivity reflect the fact that both workers and machines are
operating more fully and more efficiently.
Actual GNP for 1964, at $622 billion, was $27 billion or 4 percent below
estimated potential. In the first quarter of 1961, the gap was $51 billion
(in 1964 prices) or 9 percent of potential. Thus, the current expansion
has substantially narrowed the gap; its present size indicates the remaining
distance to full realization of potential.
The Council's estimate of potential GNP reflects the belief that the
economy could operate at a 4 percent unemployment rate today without
substantial strains on either labor supplies or plant capacity. Operating
rates in industry show the presence of capacity to fill additional demands.
Labor supplies are generally abundant in most labor markets. While
unemployment rates vary widely among different age-sex groups in the
population, rates are consistently above those of 1956, when the over-all
unemployment rate was 4.2 percent.
The ease of attaining a given global unemployment rate can be affected
by major shifts in the composition of the labor force. Some groups, like
teenagers and uneducated adults, typically have relatively high unemployment rates; a large increase in their numbers relative to the total labor
force would be expected to make the attainment of a given over-all unemployment goal more difficult. In fact, there have been moderate shifts
in the composition of the labor force in the direction of age-sex groups with
typically higher unemployment rates. But there have also been shifts toward
83
Chart 13
Labor Force Response to Employment
PERCENT
MALES, 25 TO 54 YEARS OF AGE
98
PARTICIPATION RATE 1/
96
EMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF POPULATION 2/
-
94
-
92 1
1
1952
1
1
1954
1
1
1956
1
1
1958
1
1
1960
1
1
1962
1964
PERCENT
46
ALL OTHERS
PARTICIPATION RATE b
44
EMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF POPULATION 2/
42
40
I
1952
I
I
1954
I
1956
I
I
1958
I
I
1960
I
I
1962
^ PERCENT OF NONINSTITUTIONAL POPULATION IN THE LABOR FORCE (INCLUDES ARMED FORCES).
& PERCENT OF NONINSTITUTIONAL POPULATION HAVING EMPLOYMENT (INCLUDES ARMED FORCES).
2/ INCLUDES FEMALES, 14 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER; MALES, 1 4 - 2 4 YEARS AND 55 YEARS AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
I
1964
education groups with lower unemployment rates. If every age-sex group
now had the same unemployment rate it experienced in March 1957, the
over-all unemployment rate would be 0.2 percent higher than it was then.
On the other hand, if every education group now had the same unemployment rate it experienced in March 1957, the global unemployment rate
would be 0.3 percent lower than it was then.
The interim target of a 4 percent unemployment rate is attainable, given
the required level of demand for goods and services. By improving labor
market information, skills, and formal education, the manpower policies
discussed in Chapter 3 can facilitate the transition to a 4 percent unemployment rate and can, in the future, let us attain even lower rates.
OUTLOOK FOR 1965
Evidence on the economic outlook for GNP and prices has helped to
guide the formulation of this year's economic policy proposals. In turn,
the President's program has an important influence in strengthening the
prospects for sustained prosperity with price stability in 1965.
PROSPECTS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
With congressional enactment of excise tax reduction, social insurance
liberalization, and other key fiscal proposals as scheduled in the President's
program, GNP for 1965 is expected to lie within a $10 billion range centering
on $660 billion. At the midpoint of this estimated range, the dollar growth
in GNP this year would equal the increase of $38 billion in 1964. But
because GNP has risen in the past year, matching the dollar gain of 1964
would mean a percentage increase about half a point less than the 6^2
percent registered in 1964. In constant prices, the increase in output is
likely to exceed the growth of potential, reducing the gap moderately.
The range from $655 billion to $665 billion recognizes the limited precision of economic forecasting. Although the midpoint of the projected
range in the Council's last Annual Report was within $1 billion of actual
GNP for 1964, such accuracy cannot be counted on every year. Economists
are still far from a complete understanding of the determinants of consumer
and business spending. Nor do they yet have completely accurate measures
of recent trends and levels of economic activity, so important to an assessment of the near future. Moreover, unforeseen events external to the
domestic economy can have important effects on business activity. The
evident shortcomings and pitfalls in forecasting highlight the need for constant surveillance of changes in output and employment and for flexibility
in economic policy.
The available evidence points to new gains in expenditures by consumers,
businesses, and governments. The increases in the components should reinforce one another; they sum up to the prospective increase in GNP.
85
Government. Purchases of goods and services by State and local governments are likely to be nearly $5 billion higher than in 1964, maintaining
their recent upward trend and benefiting from further expansion of Federal
grants-in-aid. Federal purchases of goods and services are expected to
increase by about $^2 billion this year. In fact, 1965 will mark the first
year since 1950, and only the second year since 1940, in which State and
local purchases will exceed those of the Federal Government.
Business fixed investment. Business outlays for durable equipment and
new construction were stronger in 1964 than surveys of business intentions
had initially indicated. Prospects are excellent for a further expansion in
1965. Capacity utilization rates in manufacturing, although still below
preferred levels in almost all industries, are above those of a year ago.
These improved rates, together with the sales increases expected by manufacturers, validate the investment made in 1964 and provide incentives for
further expansion. In addition, lower corporate taxes have raised the
after-tax yield of investment. Furthermore, the gross cash flow retained by
business remains high in relation to capital outlays, thus permitting new
investment to be financed with comparative ease.
The survey of intentions to invest—jointly conducted by the Department
of Commerce and Securities and Exchange Commission—indicates that
new plant and equipment expenditures in the first half of 1965 will be
approximately $3^2 billion (annual rate) above those in 1964. For the
year as a whole, the advance in business fixed investment should come close
to, but probably not match, last year's rise of $5 J/£ billion.
Inventory investment. Inventory accumulation in 1964 was surprisingly
modest. Indeed, despite the stronger gains in final sales, such investment
was lower in 1964 than in 1963. Inventories today seem unusually conservative relative to prospective sales, and are expected to rise somewhat
more rapidly this year. Accumulation may exceed last year's rate by about
$2 billion.
Residential construction. The value of residential construction in 1964
was $1 billion higher than in 1963, but it moved downward during the course
of the year. It seems unlikely that outlays for home building this year will
substantially exceed those in 1964: housing starts in the final quarter were a
little below the annual average; overbuilding of apartments occurred in
some localities. On the other hand, sales of new single-family homes have
held up well and basic forces appear strong enough to prevent a further decline in home building. Family incomes are high and rising. With a plentiful supply of funds on hand, savings and loan institutions and other financial
intermediaries will continue to welcome qualified mortgage loan applicants.
Although the number of housing starts may be lower than in 1964, the average value per start is likely to rise. Thus, total outlays on new private
residential construction in 1965 are expected to show little change from
1964.
86
Consumption expenditures. Consumption expenditures are likely to
rise at a slightly more rapid rate than disposable personal income. Full
adjustment to the tax cut should bring down the saving rate below the 7*/2
percent of 1964. The excellent reception of the 1965 auto models and the
continued strength of used car prices augur well for new car sales. The
exceptionally strong rise in household durables last year is not likely to be
duplicated in 1965, though sales should advance further. The proportion
of consumption composed of services and nondurable goods is likely to rise
in 1965 from its 1964 value.
In 1964, disposable income was boosted substantially by the tax cut; this
year, less fiscal stimulus is in prospect. Gains in household purchasing power
will depend mainly on incomes generated by advances in the expenditure
categories discussed above. In all, increases in consumption expenditures
should account for about two-thirds of the rise in GNP.
Quarterly pattern
The pattern of advance during the course of this year will have an
important influence on the continued balance of the expansion. Backlogs of demand resulting from the strikes in the automobile industry in
the autumn of 1964 are likely to add strength to over-all production in
the current quarter. On the other hand, Federal fiscal measures, including
the excise tax reduction and social insurance liberalization, should
strengthen the advance in the second half of this year. While the outlook
for business fixed investment and consumer buying inclinations is necessarily
more uncertain for the later months of the year, the evidence does not
suggest a weakening.
Conditions in the steel industry present the chief visible threat to prospects
for a balanced pattern of quarter-to-quarter advances. Manufacturers are
likely to continue to augment their stocks of steel during the next few
months as a defense against a possible strike after May 1. In the event of
a strike, added inventories of steel would provide a useful reserve, permitting continued production of fabricated products. Nevertheless, a steel
strike of significant duration would have unfavorable effects on over-all
income and production, as the economic annals of 1956 and 1959
demonstrate.
If a collective bargaining settlement is reached near the deadline without a work stoppage, stocks of steel will be reduced during the second half
of the year. Under such conditions, a rapid rise in activity during the next
few months might be followed by much smaller advances during the rest
of the year, possibly accompanied by increasing unemployment. It is
particularly difficult for economic policy to deal with such a transitory
situation—either on the upside or the downside. Thus, a prompt arid responsible settlement in the steel industry is important for sustained, balanced
advance in 1965.
Employment
Expected output gains in 1965 are likely to increase employment substantially, but not quite as much as last year, when more than 1.5 million jobs
were created. The expected increase in the labor force is nearly as large as
the prospective gain in jobs; normal demographic trends are expected to
bring in 1.3 million net new entrants and recent improvements in job opportunities may add to that number. Some decline from the 5.2 percent
unemployment rate of last year is likely in 1965.
OUTLOOK FOR PRICES
The size of the existing gap and the prospects for GNP suggest that widespread pressures on the supply capabilities of the economy are not likely to
emerge this year. There are good prospects for extending in 1965, our recent
record of price stability, just as it was maintained last year when production
accelerated and unemployment declined. Wholesale prices are more volatile
than consumer prices, and they are likely to show earlier movements. For
this reason, the discussion below is concentrated on the outlook for wholesale
prices this year.
The industrial component of the wholesale price index rose by 0.6 percent
between the fourth quarter of 1963 and the fourth quarter of 1964. This increase was modest, particularly when compared with the rise of 3.2 percent a
year between the final quarters of 1954 and 1957. But it was the largest
rise over four quarters since early in 1960, and raised wholesale industrial
prices back to the peak reached at that time. Hence, it is important to ask
whether these prices have begun a renewed upward trend. The significance
to be attached to the recent movements depends in part on their breadth, the
character of the force behind them, and the indirect effects they might be
expected to have on other prices.
An examination of price movements during the past year in the major
industrial commodity groups (Table 9) shows that the over-all rise
in average wholesale industrial prices was primarily the result of large price
increases in nonferrous metals and in steel scrap. These two groups together
account for an increase in the industrial index equal to nine-tenths of the
total rise. In large part, the rise in nonferrous metal prices reflected curtailment of supplies as a result of strikes and political crises affecting important
world production centers. These price increases have already spread to
fabricated metal products.
The only other major commodity group to contribute more than 0.1
percentage point to the rise in the over-all index was nonelectrical machinery. The price rise for this group was 1.6 percent during the past year.
Because of the low rate of productivity advance in this industry, prices
have typically risen, with increases averaging 1.0 percent annually in the
last several years.
Price movements of the remaining commodity groups were almost evenly
divided between rises and declines, and generally consistent with their pattern of recent years. The steady downward trend in prices of electrical
machinery and equipment, petroleum, and rubber products contrasts with
their upward direction in previous expansions.
TABLE 9.—Changes in wholesale industrial prices, by major commodity groups, fourth
quarter of 1963 to fourth quarter of 1964
Commodity group
Weight in
total
industrial
index l
(percent)
Change in price index,
1963 IV to 1964 IV
Percentage
change
Contribution
to total
change
(percentage
points)
0.59
100.00
0.6
17.14
3.2
.54
3.00
.42
4.56
1.20
13.9
28.6
-.7
.7
.42
.12
-.03
.01
9.64
10.32
8.88
6.69
1.6
.4
.9
.8
.15
.04
.08
.05
Passenger cars, trucks, and busses. _.
Motor vehicle parts and accessories.
5.30
1.38
-.7
6.6
-.04
.09
Hides, skins, leather and products
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Tobacco and beverage products
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Electrical machinery
Miscellaneous products 3
Rubber and products
Fuels and related products, and power..
1.85
3.62
5.38
3.79
3.23
6.44
6.25
4.54
1.97
10.36
2.2
.6
.4
.5
.0
-.4
-1.1
-1.3
-2.1
-1.2
.04
.02
.02
.02
.00
-.03
-.07
-.06
-.04
-.13
Total industrial products.
Metals and metal products 2 .
Nonferrous metals and scrap (excluding aluminum)...
Iron and steel scrap
Semifinished and finished steel
Aluminum ingot, mill shapes and fabricated products.
Nonelectrical machinery
Textile products and apparel
Chemicals and allied products
Motor vehicles and parts
1
As of September 1964 with 1958 quantity weights.
2 Includes some groups not shown in this table.
Includes transportation equipment other than motor vehicles and parts.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.
3
These facts indicate that the recent increases in wholesale industrial prices
should not be viewed as a harbinger of further advances this year. The
ample capacity for expansion of output in most manufacturing industries is
shown by Table 10. Actual operating rates in December 1964 exceeded
preferred rates in only rubber and textiles, although nearly all industries
were using more of their capacity than a year earlier. The rubber industry
benefited from record automobile production, while new cotton legislation
enabled the textile industry to compete more effectively with imports while
expanding exports. Despite high operating rates, prices in both of these
industries declined in 1964.
Twelve of the industries, including all durable goods industries except nonferrous metals, can still increase operating rates by 2 or more points before
reaching preferred levels. Moreover, most industries have been steadily
increasing capacity; and the planned levels of manufacturing investment
for 1965 point to continued rapid expansion of capacity, sufficient to produce the expected gains in output without significant increases in operating
rates.
TABLE 10.—Operating rates and backlog of unfilled orders in manufacturing
industries: 1963 and 1964
[As of December]
Operating rate
(percent) l
Industry
1963
Total manufacturing
1964
Preferred
operating
rate
(percent) 2
Preferred
rate less
operating
rate (percentage
points)
1964
Backlog of unfilled
orders (months) 8
1963
1964
__
85
88
92
4
2.36
4 2.52
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Machinery
Electrical machinery
Autos, trucks, and parts
Other transportation equipment
Fabricated metals and instruments.
70
90
82
78
89
80
84
88
95
88
84
94
79
88
91
95
91
93
96
88
92
3
0
3
9
2
9
4
1.35
2.09
2.65
2.93
2.89
3.08
2.37
2.64
Chemicals
Paper and pulp
Rubber
Stone, clay, and glass
Petroleum and coal
Food and beverages
Textiles . .
Miscellaneous manufacturing
80
90
92
77
90
80
95
88
79
93
96
79
93
79
97
86
90
97
94
88
95
86
96
94
11
4
-2
9
2
7
-1
8
1 Output as percent of capacity. Data for 1963, excluding iron and steel, from McGraw-Hill; estimates
for iron and steel in 1963, and all industries in 1964, by Council of Economic Advisers, after consultation
with McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics.
2 McGraw-Hill survey data for December 1962, the latest available.
3 Ratio of unfilled orders to shipments (seasonally adjusted) for those industries for which detail is
available.
4
November.
Sources: McGraw-Hill Publishing Company, Department of Commerce, and Council of Economic
Advisers.
The ease with which manufacturing industries have been meeting rising
demands is also indicated by the relatively mild increases in the ratio of order
backlogs to shipments from December 1963 to December 1964. These
increases, following declines during 1962 and 1963, left over-all manufacturing backlogs no higher relative to shipments than at the end of 1961.
On the basis of the prospects for GNP reviewed above, backlogs would not
be expected to grow significantly in most industries this year.
Continued stability of unit labor costs during the current expansion (reviewed in Chapter 1), and particularly in manufacturing from 1963 to
1964, has helped to hold down prices. Prospective labor supplies should
assure against any widespread tightness in labor markets and should exert a
restraining influence on wage settlements. Moreover, the current concern
with work rules and job security tends to reduce the "pattern-setting" effect
of large wage settlements in key industries.
Furthermore, the revised depreciation guidelines, investment tax credit,
and corporate tax reduction have strengthened after-tax cash flow in many
industries and aided price stability. For example, the contribution of these
90
Federal fiscal measures to cash flow in the steel industry was the equivalent of
a 3 percent price increase in 1964.
Thus, many important factors are working to preserve wholesale price
stability. Price increases from demand pressures are likely to be limited to
a few specialized areas, such as occurred in nonferrous metals in 1964; and
price reductions can be expected elsewhere—particularly in industries with
rapidly increasing productivity. But there are areas in the economy where
management and labor possess the market power to exercise some discretion
in their price and wage decisions, and, in particular, to make inflationary
decisions even in the absence of excess demands. With responsible decisions
by business and labor, 1965 should see continued price stability.
GROWTH PROSPECTS FOR THE LONGER RUN
The growth of potential GNP depends on long-run demographic, economic, and technological factors that are partly beyond the control of public
and private policies. But it is also influenced by a variety of public and
private decisions that can and should be made with a view to their effect
on the growth of productive capacity. Some of these policies are referred to
below. Growth rates of potential output vary from country to country,
and in our own history they have differed considerably from period to
period. Potential GNP grew rapidly in the early postwar years and then
more slowly after the Korean conflict. Under current policies, potential
output seems to be accelerating and will probably continue to speed up between now and 1970, reflecting the increases in labor force and long-run
productivity.
LABOR FORCE
The labor force is expected to grow much more rapidly during the remainder of the 1960's than it has in recent years. Apart from increases in
participation rates that would be induced by improved employment opportunities, the expected annual growth to 1970 is 1.7 percent, or about
1.4 million persons, a major acceleration from the yearly average of 1.2
percent, or 0.9 million persons, in the past nine years.
Different age-sex groups are expected to grow at different rates. The
projected increase in the number of males between the ages of 25 and 54
years is only 0.7 percent a year from 1964 to 1970. The rest of the labor
force—all female participants and male participants aged 14 to 24 and 55
years or more—will be increasing at the much higher rate of 2.4 percent.
The fraction of the total labor force made up by males in the 25-54 age group
fell from 45 percent in 1955 to 42 percent in 1964. And this downward
trend will continue during the remainder of the 1960's. The tremendous
growth of the other groups presents an important challenge to the manpower policies discussed in the next chapter, since these groups may be
91
more difficult to absorb into the ranks of the employed. The more rapid
over-all expansion of the labor force will increase the growth rate of potential
output in the years ahead. It emphasizes the economy's need for—and its
capacity to meet—a steady and substantial growth of demand.
PRODUCTIVITY
Productivity has increased rapidly in the current expansion. But this
is typical of a period of improving utilization rates, since labor and capital
are used more efficiently. The recent performance does not provide clear
evidence that the long-run trend of productivity growth has changed, but
there is some evidence that it may have risen slightly in recent years.
A gradual improvement in the trend of productivity growth may be expected from our sustained expansion and higher investment. Higher rates
of investment increase the quality as well as the quantity of available
productive capital, since the latest technology is embodied in new machinery
and equipment. Periods of expansion are also favorable to the introduction
of new and improved products and processes that may raise productivity
without requiring substantial capital investments.
While all these factors have effects that are predictable at least in direction,
their quantitative impact is gradual and defies careful measurement.
The prospects for growth of the labor force and productivity suggest that
the increase of potential GNP in 1965-70 will exceed the 3 / 2 percent
annual rate of the 1955-62 period and even the 3% percent rate estimated
currently. Indeed, over the next five years it is likely to average about 4
percent a year, a rate approaching that of the early postwar period.
In the long run, with policies promoting growth as well as full utilization,
it should become possible and desirable to surpass even this growth rate.
PRIVATE DEMAND
Whether our rapidly growing potential GNP will be fully realized as
actual GNP during the remainder of this decade will depend upon the
strength of aggregate demand. And aggregate demand, in turn^ will reflect both Federal policies and the strength of spending by other sectors—
households, businesses, and State and local governments. The buoyancy
of private spending will determine whether Federal policies need to be
relatively expansionary or restrictive in pursuing full employment with
stable prices.
Fluctuations in the long-term strength of private demand have changed
the tasks of Federal policies in the past. During 1947-53, private demand
was exceptionally strong and restrictive government policies were needed
much of the time to keep demand from pressing too hard on capacity.
The United States emerged from World War II with depleted and aging
stocks of homes, household durable goods, automobiles, and plant and equipment, reflecting the low levels of private investment during the Great Depres-
92
sion and the wartime emergency restrictions on civilian purchases. The war
also generated a large accumulation of liquid assets by consumers and business firms. With a strong desire for rebuilding and updating their stocks
of durable goods and with the financial ability to translate this desire into
effective demand, the American consumer and businessman were eager
spenders. The military and industrial build-up associated with the Korean
conflict intensified the ebullience of the economy and prolonged the adjustment of stocks into the 1954-57 period.
The economic environment since 1957 has differed significantly from
that of the previous decade. A persistent gap has developed between
potential GNP and actual GNP. The immediate reasons for the existence
of this gap are fairly evident. First, restrictive full-employment surpluses
in the Federal budget emerged. Second, private demand has not been
sufficiently buoyant to overcome the fiscal drag of these potential surpluses.
There has been no accumulated backlog of demand for housing, consumer
durable goods, or business capital. And—although there has been no dearth
of youngsters and oldsters—the number of new families in the market for
houses, furniture, appliances, and cars has grown at only a modest pace.
We are now on the threshold of a more rapid increase in the number of
persons reaching working age. Just as this will accelerate the potential
output of the economy, so too will it add to the underlying strength of
private demand for a range of business and consumer investment goods.
There is no assurance, however, that the increase in effective demand for
goods and services will synchronize precisely with the added productive
potential represented by the surge of new entrants to the work force. Indeed, the demographic patterns for the next decade, coupled with information on the broad spending habits of different age groups, suggest that
the strengthening of private demands will be most significant in the 1970's.
But these projections also suggest there should be a steady, if less spectacular,
growth in private demand during the remainder of this decade. There is
also a promising possibility that private demand will be stimulated by the
sharply rising research and development expenditures of recent years.
Spending by individuals
The forthcoming changes in the age-structure of the population will have
their primary influence on over-all demand by affecting spending for durables and housing. Purchases of new houses almost invariably involve a large
element of long-term credit. Since this is repaid gradually out of normal
saving, the homebuyer is not obliged to curtail his current consumption expenditures. Purchases of cars and household durable goods are typically
financed by credit or past savings, and expenditures on these durables may
in part add to, rather than replace, other types of spending. Thus, particularly strong demand for houses and durables can raise total spending by
individuals relative to total income.
757-981 O—65—-n
93
Individuals are most likely to be in the market for homes and durables
in the period between marriage and the age at which their children are
grown. On the other hand, families in the 45-64 age group are likely to
be high savers, with the major need for durables behind them and the
prospects of retirement coming into view. When people retire, they generally have low current incomes and draw down their life savings, thereby
once again contributing to demand relative to their incomes.
The high birth rates of the postwar period will strengthen the demand
for automobiles sooner than they will affect housing; indeed, they have
already helped to invigorate both new and used car markets. The first
postwar babies are already of driving age and, in the last half of this decade,
the number of persons in the 20-24 age group will rise sharply (Table 11).
The favorable population factor, continued preferences for multiple-car
ownership, and a large volume of replacement demand (now about 5 ^
million a year) will all contribute to a rising potential demand for automobiles during the rest of the 1960's and into the 1970's.
T A B L E 11.—Population 20 years of age and over, by selected age groups, 1960 estimate, and
1965-75 projections
[Millions of persons; as of July 1]
Projections
Age group
1960
estimate
1965
l
1970
1975
Total, 20 years and o v e r .
111.1
117.6
126.8
137.2
20-24 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-64 years
65 years and over..
11.1
22.9
24.2
36.2
16.7
13.6
22.4
24.5
39.0
18.1
17.1
25.2
23.0
41.9
19.6
19.1
31.1
22.5
43.4
21.2
1
Includes armed forces overseas.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
See Table B-20 for additional population data.
Source: Department of Commerce.
Rapid growth during the rest of this decade of persons in the 20-24
age group will contribute to the demand for multi-family dwellings, since
these people are typically renters. Meanwhile, people in their late twenties
will also be increasing in number, although less sharply, and will be starting
to buy their own homes. Between 1970 and 1975, population developments
should have a major impact on the demand for new housing as the 25-34
age group swells by almost 6 million persons, as shown in Table 11.
The typically high-saving group—persons aged 45-64—will grow only
slowly, and its relative importance will decline throughout the 1965-75
decade. The number of persons over retirement age meanwhile will rise
by one-sixth. Thus to some degree over the next five years and to
a greater extent in the 1970's, population trends should contribute to a
strong demand for residential construction and for consumer goods and
services relative to total incomes.
94
Continued rapid expansion of actual output and job opportunities is required to translate this latent spending, suggested by population trends, into
effective demands. With full employment still some distance away and
with unemployment already high among younger workers, Government
policies must continue to be expansionary and manpower policies must be
diligently pursued so that jobs and incomes can be made fully available to
these workers. If these people obtain jobs, their demands for goods and
services will help to maintain full employment.
Business fixed investment
If the economy successfully meets the challenge of attaining and maintaining full employment, the stepped-up growth of the labor force will also
have favorable effects on the strength of investment demand. With more
men on the job, more tools would be needed to outfit them efficiently. If,
over the next Eve years, two million additional private jobs are created to
match the more rapid growth of the labor force, the economy would, on
that account, require roughly $25 billion of extra capital. This would be
a major addition to investment demand. On the other hand, if labor
should be in excess supply—if the economy fails to attain full employment—
the incentives for increasing capacity and economizing on labor would
weaken.
Although more uncertain than the population trends, another factor
that could stimulate investment in the coming decade is the speeding of
technological innovation. Research and development expenditures have
quadrupled in the last decade and are continuing to rise, although less
rapidly.
The reservoir of commercially exploitable technology can be expected to
increase during the remainder of the decade. New technical developments
will spur businessmen to replace older equipment more rapidly and to
purchase equipment capable of producing entirely new products. On the
other hand, some innovations may make capital equipment more efficient
and thus reduce the amount of investment needed to create any given
amount of capacity.
In the early postwar years, business fixed investment (in 1964 prices) typically exceeded 11 percent of GNP. Since 1958 it has constituted only
about 9 percent of our national output, and also a smaller fraction of gross
retained earnings of corporations. For the remainder of this decade, investment is likely to contribute more strength to the economy than it did
typically in the 1958-63 period, but it cannot be expected to match its early
postwar performance, when heavy backlogs added to demand.
Conclusion
The bulk of evidence points to a moderate and gradual strengthening of
underlying demand on the part of consumers and businesses. Expenditures
for goods and services by State and local governments should also
95
continue to serve as an expansionary force in the years ahead. Over
the longer run, these developments may gradually alter the appropriate
direction of fiscal and monetary policy. Over the next few years, private
demand will need the support of expansionary Federal policies if we are
to attain full employment and realize our more rapidly growing potential.
POLICIES FOR PROSPERITY
Prosperity requires achieving and maintaining a balanced advance of demand and productive capacity. Notwithstanding the long historical record
of periodic recessions or depressions, there is much evidence in economic
analysis and in postwar experience, both here and abroad, that such a
balance can be sustained.
Experience and logic also warn us, however, that balanced growth seldom
sustains itself automatically. Fiscal and monetary policies must be continuously adjusted to keep the aggregate demand for goods and services in
line with the economy's growing capacity to produce them. Flexible use
of monetary and fiscal measures is one of the factors responsible for the
steadiness of postwar economic progress in other industrial countries of
the free world. It has also played an important role in our expansion
since 1961.
The U.S. record of recent years is gratifying. But it would be much more
gratifying if it had occurred with unemployment rates steadily in the
neighborhood of 4 percent, and with industrial operating rates near the
levels preferred by industry for maximum efficiency. The record gives us
great reason to hope that the U.S. economy is capable of steady and balanced
advance at more satisfactory rates of utilization of manpower and industrial
capacity. The same wisdom and flexibility in public and private policies
which have sustained this expansion could sustain growth at roughly the
same pace but at a higher level. The manpower and other policies described in Chapter 3 would then have a particularly important role to
play; combined with the price and wage policies described later in this
chapter, they could assure that expansion would proceed at stable prices.
That unemployment has fallen only to 5 percent after four years of
steady economic expansion is clear evidence of the immense and growing
productivity of the American economy. Basically, this should be a cause
for hope rather than for despair. But it takes adequate total demand, and
adequately growing total demand, to harness this potential to the needs and
wants of the American people.
FISCAL POLICY TO SUSTAIN EXPANSION
Fiscal policy is the Federal Government's most powerful instrument
for influencing total demand. Changes in Federal purchases of goods and
services can have an important effect on over-all economic activity. Simi-
96
larly, variations in Federal taxes and transfer payments have major influence on the flow of after-tax earnings to private spending units.
As discussed in Chapter 1, the full-employment surplus is a useful
measure of the over-all impact of the Federal budget on economic activity.
Changes in this surplus indicate whether the Federal budget is becoming
more or less expansionary. When aggregate demand needs a stimulus in
order to achieve full employment, it is appropriate to reduce the fullemployment surplus. When a restrictive influence is called for, the
full-employment surplus should be raised.
As our productive capacity grows through time, so do Federal tax revenues
at full employment. Indeed, the percentage growth in Federal revenues
tends to exceed slightly the growth in potential GNP. Consequently, if
Federal tax rates are unchanged and expenditures grow less rapidly than
potential output, the full-employment surplus tends to rise, restricting the
expansion of total demand. When the economy is threatened with excessive demand, this restrictive influence is desirable. But it is not appropropriate when the economy is well below full employment. The need
for fiscal measures to prevent undesired increases in the full-employment
surplus also provides opportunities to pursue important national goals:
by expanding or initiating vital Federal programs, by assistance to State and
local governments, or by further tax reductions or increases in transfer payments to individuals.
Uses of expanding revenues
Many national needs will be met only if the Federal Government takes
the lead. While increasing efficiency within the Government will serve
to hold down the growth of budget expenditures, it is to be expected that
Federal nonmilitary outlays will increase in 1965 and the years beyond.
Some of these outlays will be public investments in physical capital and
human resources. Grants are also likely to rise as the Federal Government
assists State and local governments in strengthening public services that
are best provided at the local level. Transfer payments will increase, as a
compassionate society strives to aid the needy and to provide greater security
for all its citizens. And a growing and more prosperous population will
need and desire improved public services as part of a higher standard of
living.
Tax reduction also offers attractive benefits. It provides opportunities
for raising living standards through private consumption. Furthermore,
lower income tax rates can strengthen the incentives to undertake risks, to
work, and to exercise initiative. Thus tax cuts can invigorate markets and
encourage the supply of new products and services through private
enterprise.
Choices and requirements of budget policy
The allocation of our potential growth in revenues should reflect national
priorities. To the extent that a democratic society desires to make addi-
97
tional rest urces available to meet pressing public needs and wants, increased
Government outlays are called for. Alternatively, tax rate reductions give
priority to private uses of resources. The criteria for this choice are not
primarily economic. But economic analysis clearly indicates that, unless
excess demand threatens, the Nation's fiscal dividend must be allocated
between increased outlays and reduced taxes. Only in this way can fiscal
policy promote sustained prosperity.
Fiscal policies for other objectives
Fiscal policies to achieve and maintain full employment must be shaped
to permit simultaneous progress toward other economic objectives, including more rapid growth of potential output and improved international
balance. Fortunately, fiscal policy is a versatile kit of tools. Through
changes in the structure of taxes and the composition of public expenditures,
it can contribute to these other goals.
The recent reductions in corporate tax rates, the investment tax credit,
and depreciation reform, by increasing both financial resources and profitability, have stimulated investment and have contributed to the growth of
potential output. The composition of public expenditures this year will
put increased emphasis on education, which will improve the skills of the
labor force and will speed technological advance. Federal expenditures
for resource development, transportation, and research will open up profitable new investment opportunities for private enterprise. Such fiscal steps
to raise the rate of growth are particularly important in periods when downward adjustments of interest rates are limited.
Similarly, financial measures directly affecting the international area,
such as changes in the tax treatment of foreign earnings enacted in 1962
and proposed measures to improve the tax treatment of foreign portfolio
investment in the United States, can influence capital flows and hence the
balance of payments. Finally, special taxes, such as the Interest Equalization Tax, can be appropriately used under some conditions. Such special
taxes cannot be properly considered basic elements of long-run policy, since
they qualify the freedom of international trade and capital movements.
In particular circumstances, however, they can be the least costly and least
disruptive way of dealing with temporary pressures.
Current fiscal program
With the economy currently below full-employment levels, continued
rapid expansion of output is called for in 1965. Federal budgetary policy
has been designed with this need in mind. Past fiscal measures lowering
individual and corporate taxes will continue to strengthen the economy this
year. The income tax cut will reach its full effect on consumer demand
and have added influence on investment. In addition, new fiscal actions
to sustain the expansion of the economy are set forth in the President's
proposed budget.
In accordance with the Revenue Act of 1964, tax rates on 1965 incomes
will be lower than those last year. Most of the tax cut's direct effect on
disposable income, however, was experienced beginning in March 1964
when the withholding rate fell from 18 percent to 14 percent. This year,
taxpayers will benefit from twelve rather than ten months of lower withholding, but the withholding rate will be unchanged. Hence, the "second
stage" of the personal income tax cut will provide very little fresh stimulus.
Indeed, when final settlements of 1964 taxes are made this spring, tax
refunds will be reduced by more than $1 billion from last year's level, because the withholding rate was lowered in 1964. Nevertheless, the consumption-increasing effects of the original gain in disposable income have
not as yet been fully realized. Expenditures out of the initial gain in income, in turn, lead to higher income in a continuing, but diminishing, chain.
The time lags in this process are such that as much as one-fourth of the full
annual consumption effect of the tax cut—or a gain of $5 billion—remains
to be felt during 1965.
Favorable repercussions on investment should also continue. With the
stimulus of improved operating rates, higher before-tax profits, and lower
corporate taxes, business fixed investment rose strongly during 1964. Since
even more substantial lags exist in investment spending, and since corporate
profit tax rates are reduced by another 2 percentage points in 1965, tax
reductions are continuing to strengthen fixed capital outlays.
Fiscal 1966 budget
In addition to the stimulating effects of past fiscal policies, the President's budget program for fiscal 1966 calls for several new expansionary actions. First, an excise tax reduction of $ 1 % billion is proposed to take
effect on July 1, 1965.
After substantial recent reductions in corporate and in individual income
taxes, it is appropriate to direct further tax relief at excises this year. Present excises were imposed, in many instances, as wartime emergency measures. In some instances, their collection is cumbersome and inefficient.
Purchases of taxed products by low-income families may result in these
families paying a higher tax in relation to their income than is paid by
other consumers. Finally, excises may affect relative prices in a manner
that reflects neither costs of production nor social judgments, except in cases
where they serve in lieu of "user charges," such as the gasoline tax earmarked for highways, or where they result from a deliberate social decision
to restrain the consumption of certain products, such as liquor and tobacco.
Excise tax cuts will raise the real purchasing power of disposable incomes,
provided that they are passed on to consumers in lower prices, and this
gain will produce essentially the same chain of effects as income tax reduction. But price reduction is vital to the full effectiveness of excise reduction.
If prices do not fall, the resulting gain will be in profits rather than in consumer income. Half of the gain in corporate profits would be returned
99
to the Government in higher profit taxes, thus cutting the effective excise tax
reduction by one-half. The remainder would offer no direct stimulus to consumer demand and would provide at best a weak and inefficient incentive
to investment. Prompt price reductions for the affected products are of
crucial importance and can be expected to be brought about by competitive
forces.
A second expansionary influence for 1965 is the proposed social insurance
legislation. Liberalization in social security benefits amounting to more than
$1*4 billion a year is to be enacted by midyear and will be effective retroactively to January 1, 1965. For the sound long-run financing of the social
security trust funds, a rise in payroll tax rates and a revision in the tax base
are scheduled for January 1,1966.
Finally, Federal outlays (as shown in the national income and product
accounts) will rise in 1965 by $3*/2 billion over and above the social insurance
liberalization. Most of the increase will be in the form of larger transfer
payments and grants-in-aid to State and local governments, rather than
purchases of goods and services; and much of the increase will occur in the
trust funds rather than in the administrative budget. Some new and expanded activities—many of which are discussed in the following chapters—
are provided for in the budget; their cost is partly offset by economies in less
urgently needed programs.
The excise tax cut and social insurance liberalization will stimulate consumer spending in the second half of this year. The expansionary actions
in the President's program will more than offset the full-employment growth
of Federal revenues and thus will reduce the full-employment surplus
during 1965. The full-employment surplus is scheduled to increase in the
first half of 1966 because of the rise in payroll taxes. Therefore, the rate of
economic advance in the next eighteen months will reflect, to an increasing
degree, the strength of private demand. The record of this period should
test the economy's ability to advance in high gear with a small, but no
longer declining, full-employment surplus.
The response of the economy to this test could call for revisions in budget
policy. If private demand should show signs of cumulative weakness, it
would be appropriate to provide new fiscal stimulus. Alternatively, if
private demand should strengthen markedly and threaten to strain productive capacity, fiscal and monetary policies should be shifted in a restrictive
direction.
Policies can respond to unanticipated developments as they emerge. But
they would be faced by a dilemma if price-wage pressures were to threaten
our record of price stability while the economy remained below full employment. Under such circumstances, restrictive measures might offer a weak
antidote to inflation by making the environment less favorable for price
increases; but at the same time these policies could have a sharply adverse
effect on employment and could impair the productivity gains that permit
higher wage rates within a framework of constant unit labor costs.
100
FISCAL POLICY TO COMBAT RECESSION
Flexibility in fiscal policy is especially important when the economy is
suddenly threatened with recession. Continuing policies to strengthen expansion supply a solid first line of protection against recurrent recession.
But imbalances can develop in a free enterprise economy, and can trigger
costly and cumulative downturns in business activity. Automatic fiscal
stabilizers help to cushion the economy in a period of declining activity.
But they must be supplemented by strong and prompt discretionary fiscal
actions if we are to minimize the severity of recessions,
Flexible use of fiscal policy requires cooperative efforts by the Administration, the Congress, and the public. The Administration is determined to
recognize the problem candidly and to take decisive action promptly when
economic activity is faltering. The Congress contributes by being prepared
to consider the President's proposals with all possible speed. The public—
consumers, business, and labor—can be expected to regard constructive
Government policies to combat recession as a source of strength rather
than as a reflection of weakness. The bright prospects for continued expansion this year offer an opportunity to review the available means for
such cooperative action, so that our defenses will be strong when and if they
are tested in the future.
Costs of Recessions
Even minor recessions have huge costs. In the postwar period, the United
States has successfully avoided a recurrence of the seriously depressed conditions of the 1930's, but it has experienced four recessions which caused
personal hardship for millions of Americans. During the course of these
recessions, on average, real GNP fell by more than 3 percent; the unemployment rate rose by 2 percentage points; and corporate profits fell by more
than 25 percent. In the years most heavily scarred by recession, the number
of people unemployed long enough to exhaust their unemployment compensation benefits rose by 840,000; the number of families with incomes
below the $3,000 poverty line rose by 400,000; and the number of families
receiving general assistance payments rose by 70,000.
Automatic Stabilizers
These recessions would have been far more costly had it not been for the
"built-in" fiscal stabilizers of our modern economy. During recession, Government purchases resist the decline in private outlays. Moreover, Government transfer payments rise as unemployment increases; and tax collections
fall as corporate profits and wages decline. Thus, the Federal tax-transfer system automatically draws less purchasing power out of the private
sector.
In postwar recessions, built-in stabilizers have worked primarily through
changes in corporate profits, the corporate tax yield, and transfer payments.
IOI
The 1960-61 recession can serve as an illustration. During that recession,
national income fell by $4.5 billion (annual rate), but personal income actually rose by $5.2 billion. Corporate profits bore the brunt of the decline,
but reductions in corporation tax liabilities helped to maintain dividends.
Increased transfer payments, including a $1.4 billion (annual rate) rise in
unemployment benefits, offset some losses in earnings.
Strengthening the unemployment compensation system deserves high
priority among possible steps to increase the automatic resistance of the
economy to recessions. The most important reasons for improving the system are to increase individual security and reduce the unnecessary human
costs of unemployment. But a strengthened system would also sustain consumer purchasing power more effectively, thereby reducing the amount
of unemployment as well.
At present, the unemployment insurance system excludes about one-fifth
of all workers; a particularly unfortunate omission is employees of small
firms who are by no means immune to unemployment. Furthermore, average benefits presently amount to only about 35 percent of average wages
in covered employment; in 1939, the average benefit was more than 40 percent of average covered wages. Finally, with the present maximum duration
of benefit payments, a particularly large number of recipients exhaust their
benefits during a recession period before new employment opportunities
develop. During 1961, about 2.4 million workers exhausted benefits despite
the relatively rapid upturn in business activity from the 1960-61 recession.
A series of Administration proposals for strengthening the unemployment
compensation system is being sent to Congress this year.
Discretionary Actions on Taxes and Expenditures
Although automatic stabilizers do much to moderate recessions, they cannot be relied on either to prevent them or to turn the tide. Federal taxing
and spending measures that reduce the full-employment surplus can, however, be effective in reversing recession.
As the President has stated, ". . . if recession were to threaten, a welltimed tax cut would be one of our most effective measures." Therefore,
he is asking Congress to consider how a temporary income tax reduction can
be "well-timed" to combat recession. The President is suggesting that Congress itself evaluate its procedures and determine the best way to reinforce
the Nation's confidence that an anti-recession tax proposal would be considered and voted on promptly.
Accelerated Government spending can also provide powerful assistance
to the economy if recession should threaten. As noted in Chapter 1, rapid
increases in Federal outlays were called for in 1961 to strengthen national
security; these outlays also helped to spur recovery from the recession. In
the future, we cannot count on new public expenditure requirements to develop just at the time of recession. Nevertheless, there are many continuing public needs which provide opportunities for expanding Federal out-
102
lays if additional fiscal stimulus becomes appropriate. These opportunities
must be grasped promptly if they are to have maximum effectiveness. Yet
such increases in spending should not commit the Government to a higher
level of outlays than would otherwise be desirable, once the economy
recovered.
Advance planning makes possible a careful selection of those expenditure
programs which could be most efficiently and most rapidly expanded in time
of recession and contracted after recovery. This would assure that agencies
have workable anti-recession plans on hand, permitting speedier action by
the Administration and Congress and improving the efficiency of steppedup expenditures.
The anti-recession possibilities of a wide range of Federal programs will
be reviewed by the Administration this year. Certain maintenance, rehabilitation, and modernization activities on Federal facilities, or on State and
local facilities assisted by Federal grants, provide opportunities to push
funds rapidly through already existing "pipelines." Unlike certain traditional public works, many of these activities, could be expanded readily,
employing workers without previous similar job experience and not requiring
commitment to a long-term program. Various training and community
service programs might also be intensified appropriately, since the povertystricken and the unskilled are doubly disadvantaged in times of slack
economic activity.
Benefits of timely anti-recession actions
If action could be taken in time, either temporary tax cuts or the acceleration of selected Government programs—or the two in combination—potentially have the speed and power to repel recessions. The time patterns of
the postwar recessions of 1953-54, 1957-58, and 1960-61 illustrate the possible benefits of quick action after a downturn has been diagnosed. In
1953, evidence of weakening in the economy was available by June and the
forces of recession were evident by September. Symptoms of the 1958 recession were clear by November 1957; in 1960, the downturn in the economy was widely recognized by September. A tax reduction, enacted within
the first quarter after recession became apparent, would have provided a
substantial lift to consumer spending in the following quarter. This boost
might have converted the last months of decline into the initial months of
recovery. The major expansionary effect of the tax cut would then have
strengthened the advance over the next few quarters.
The need for stimulation does not disappear as soon as the economy
turns up. Indeed, many policy actions in the past have been designed to
strengthen the early stages of recovery. Even with such measures, the unemployment rate was 6.4 percent three quarters after the 1958 trough and
still 5.8 percent in the following quarter. In 1961-62, the comparable
unemployment readings were 6.2 percent and 5.6 percent.
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Thus, in recent recessions, had prompt expansionary action been possible,
it could have limited the drop in output and employment, might well have
shortened the duration of the decline, and would clearly have strengthened
recovery.
A future recession might differ from its postwar predecessors. There is
no definite assurance that a future downturn would be recognizable—or
would be recognized—as rapidly. On the other hand, neither can we be
sure that the decline would—in the absence of policy—be as short and as
shallow. The best possible guarantee against a severe recession is corrective action taken promptly, before depressive effects can cumulate and
reinforce themselves.
Furthermore, it may actually be possible in some instances to prevent recessions before a downturn appears. If the economy seemed poised on the
brink of a downturn, and excess capacity and ample labor supplies were
available, prudence would call for prompt expansionary steps, which might
head off recession altogether. Under such circumstances, prompt measures
would be appropriate even if future demands proved somewhat stronger
than expected.
Summary
Both our increasing appreciation of the effectiveness of fiscal policy, and
the continual improvement in the detail, accuracy, and timeliness of our
economic information, strengthen the conviction that recessions can be increasingly avoided and ultimately wiped out.
Policies designed to maintain continued healthy expansion—through
tailoring the expected growth of total demand to the expected growth of
productive capacity—should lessen the chance that imbalances might arise
which could touch off recessions. But unexpected events and miscalculations will still occur. When this happens, we must be prepared to act
promptly. It will be easier to deal with recessionary tendencies, and in some
cases even avert an impending downturn, if the Congress is ready to act
quickly on requests for temporary tax cuts and if expenditure programs are
ready for prompt submission to the Congress. This readiness would provide
a strong and comprehensive insurance policy, backing up the continuous
application of fiscal and monetary policies to sustain prosperity.
ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY
The degree to which fiscal policy should be stimulative or restrictive
depends in part upon the monetary policies being pursued at the same
time. Just as tax reduction stimulates private spending, so the ready
availability of credit contributes to increased private outlays. In particular, spending for major durable goods—new housing, business plant and
equipment, automobiles, and major household goods—is likely to depend in
part upon the availability of credit and its cost. In an economy characterized by idle resources, expansionary monetary policy is desirable. It helps
104
to strengthen private demand; at the same time, it contributes to the growth
of productivity by encouraging investment for the purpose of developing and
marketing new products and adopting up-to-date production techniques.
Growth of liquid assets
Over the long run, growth of economic activity must be supported by the
continued expansion of monetary assets, since individuals and businesses
need a growing volume of liquid balances for transaction purposes as their
income and spending increase. The need for growth in liquid assets also
results from investors' desires to hold some part of their wealth in assets
that are readily accessible and free of risk.
Liquid assets can take a variety of forms, and new institutions are continually evolving to meet these needs. During the past thirty years, savings
and loan associations and mutual savings banks have come to play an
important role as competitors with commercial banks for the time and
savings deposits of the public. Similarly, business firms frequently invest
short-term funds in Treasury bills and in a wide and growing variety of
other "money market" paper. Nevertheless, monetary assets provided
by the commercial banking system continue to play a crucial role, since
checks drawn on demand deposits constitute the most important medium
of exchange for transacting day-to-day business. The growth of liquid
assets, and particularly of the money supply, should keep pace with expanding requirements over the long run in order to support growth and
economic advance.
Monetary expansion and gold reserves
As demand deposits and time and savings accounts at commercial banks
expand over time, these banks are required to hold a growing volume of
reserves which are largely deposited with the Federal Reserve System. Under current law, the Federal Reserve is required to hold gold certificates
equaling at least 25 percent of the total of its deposits and outstanding
notes, which constitute the major part of our currency. At the turn of
the year, the gold holdings of the Federal Reserve amounted to about 28
percent of its liabilities in the form of deposits and notes. Apart from any
changes in the U.S. gold stock, the provisions of current law would shortly
circumscribe our freedom of action in achieving needed growth in our
money supply. Although the Federal Reserve has the authority to waive
the gold cover requirement, such a temporary expedient would not be a
satisfactory response to a long-range need.
Monetary policy is formulated by responsible officials with a view to
the public interest, and the presence of a mechanical limit on monetary
expansion is inappropriate. Such a limit is either irrelevant—when the
gold stock is far above the legal minimum—or harmful—when the gold
stock acts as an arbitrary restraint. Consequently, the President has proposed that the Federal Reserve Act be amended to require gold cover only
105
for Federal Reserve notes and not for deposits in Federal Reserve
Banks. This will assure continued opportunity for monetary growth and
for needed flexibility in the operation of monetary policy. In addition, it
will emphasize the full availability of our gold stock, at its fixed price of $35
an ounce, to defend the dollar in international markets.
Limitations and opportunities for monetary policy
Monetary policy must serve both the domestic objectives of full employment and more rapid growth and the international objective of balance of
payments equilibrium in the framework of a stronger international trade
and payments system. Greater availability and lower costs of credit and
liquidity help to stimulate total demand and economic growth. However, if U.S. interest rates—particularly short-term rates—were permitted
to fall significantly below those in other international financial centers, domestic funds would tend to flow abroad in search of higher yields. Thus,
the freedom of expansionary monetary action is necessarily limited when
the Nation is determined to correct a balance of payments problem.
The constraints on the use of monetary policy for domestic purposes are
related to the particular circumstances of the United States in recent years.
Over the longer run, it may well be possible to increase the freedom of
monetary policy. As the fabric of international cooperation is strengthened
by continuing consultation, in such forums as the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD), it should be possible to deal more
fully with issues involving the interdependence of countries in setting their
national economic policies. One important question is whether most of
the world would be better off domestically—and no worse off internationally—if the industrial nations as a group had somewhat lower interest
rates (offset in some countries by more restrictive fiscal policies).
This question may become particularly relevant in 1965, when the success of anti-inflation programs in some European countries, together with
a slowdown in their domestic expansion, may encourage them to shift
to a more expansionary policy. Some European countries are considering
tax reductions for this purpose; an easier monetary policy and lower interest rates might be equally effective and could contribute to a better international structure of interest rates.
Despite the present international constraint, flexible use of the full range
of instruments of monetary policy can continue to support domestic expansion. A combination of adjustments in maximum interest rates on
deposits, open market operations in a wide range of securities, and changes
in bank reserve requirements have been used in recent years to help to
reconcile domestic and international objectives.
Through continued ingenuity in the choice of techniques, monetary and
debt management policies in 1965 can meet international requirements and,
at the same time, provide readily available credit to meet the needs of a
noninflationary expansion. Thus, while fiscal policy must once again be
106
the main contributor to the growth of demand, it can be supported by
monetary policy.
WAGES, COSTS, AND PRICES
Maintaining essential price stability in 1965 must be a national objective
of high priority. The record of price stability in recent years has made
possible a substantial improvement in our ability to compete in world
markets. This record has also contributed to a balanced advance and has
kept fiscal and monetary policies free to be expansionary. Furthermore,
price stability has promoted equity by preserving the purchasing power of
people with fixed incomes and liquid assets.
We have not yet succeeded in reaching our employment goals in this
environment of stable prices. The ability to reconcile full employment
and price stability will have a major influence on our long-term ability to
grow, to maintain a leading position in the world, and to build a better
life for all Americans. Now, with improved prosperity and reduced margins
of idleness, our institutional arrangements for setting prices and wages face
a stiffer test in avoiding tendencies toward inflation.
Our institutions are adapted to modern technology, which, in many industries, requires an enormous scale of operation and huge investment in
productive facilities and distribution systems. The resulting large firms
necessarily possess substantial market power, and may be in a position to
raise prices even when demand does not exceed supply. Still, the discipline
of competition is always at hand. Competition from abroad often challenges industries with heavy domestic concentration. Competition between
industries selling substitutable products reinforces competition within industries. And antitrust enforcement helps to promote competitive behavior.
Thus, the pricing process reflects both the exercise of discretionary market
power and the influence of impersonal market forces.
In labor markets, unions have been formed to allow workers to bargain
on equal terms with these large firms. Many unions have become powerful,
and they are in a position to hold their own in the periodic collective bargaining process. Although they are constrained by market forces, powerful
unions can, and sometimes do, obtain wage increases that outrun productivity even when labor supply is relatively abundant.
Because flexible and competitive market forces are not alone in affecting
prices and wages, a modern economy needs new policies to reconcile the
objectives of full employment and stable prices.
In one way or another virtually every advanced country has devised
policies aimed at this reconciliation. Several nations have pursued such
policies for many years. In December 1964, the United Kingdom launched
a major new venture aimed at the cost problems which have contributed
so much to her economic difficulties: leaders of business and labor signed
a declaration of intent to pursue price, wage, production, and employment
policies that will result in over-all price stability and an improved competitive position.
107
Because of differences among nations in political and economic systems,
each country must find a solution appropriate to its own institutions. The
U.S. economy is larger than the others and, as a result, many of
our industries, including heavy industries requiring large scales of operation, are more competitive than in Western Europe or Japan. Major
discretionary market power is found less frequently here, but it is found
in important industries which have a wide and pervasive influence on prices
and wages elsewhere through emulation and direct cost-push.
Price-wage guide posts
To deal with the problem of reconciliation—achieving noninflationary
price and wage behavior under prosperous conditions—the Council's
Annual Report in 1962 advanced the guideposts which were endorsed by
President Kennedy and have been firmly restated by President Johnson.
The basic guideposts are simple and straightforward and contain an inescapable economic logic.
1. The general guide for wages is that the percentage increase in total
employee compensation per man-hour be equal to the national trend rate
of increase in output per man-hour.
If each industry follows this guidepost, unit labor costs in the over-all
economy will maintain a constant average.
2. The general guide for prices calls for stable prices in industries enjoying the same productivity growth as the average for the economy; rising
prices in industries with smaller than average productivity gains; and declining prices in industries with greater than average productivity gains.
If each industry follows this guidepost, prices in the economy will
maintain a constant average.
Some exceptions to these guideposts are necessary to promote an efficient
allocation of resources and a high rate of growth, and to redress inequities
which have kept certain workers at the bottom of the wage scale. Wage increases above the guidepost level may be necessary where an industry is unable to attract sufficient labor to meet the demands for its products, where
wages are particularly low, and where changes in work rules create large gains
in productivity and substantial human costs requiring special adjustment
of compensation. Because the industries in which market power is concentrated are largely high-wage industries with a relatively low long-term
rate of increase of employment, the first two of these exceptions are rarely
applicable.
On the price side, increases in price above the guidepost may be necessary to allow for increases in nonlabor costs or to correct an inability to
attract needed capital.
Each of these exceptions has a symmetrical counterpart calling for downward departures from the guideposts. Wages should rise less than the
guidepost rate where an industry suffers from above-average unemployment
and where wages are exceptionally high for the type of work. Price increases should be smaller—or price decreases larger—where unit nonlabor
108
costs fall, where capacity is too large, and where profits are based on excessive market power.
The guideposts are not meant to preclude the possibility of a change in
distribution of income between labor and capital in industry. Where one
side or the other is able to increase its share of industry income, but not at
the expense of the public, the national interest need not be involved. However, it should be kept in mind that in most concentrated industries the
division of income between labor and capital remained essentially unchanged
all through the wage-price spirals of the 1950's. The repeated attempts to
alter income shares proved self-defeating: neither side gained, and both lost
through higher prices, weaker markets, reduced profits, and lower employment.
Table 12 illustrates the postwar experience with prices, wages, and productivity in the United States. Recent changes in employee compensation
have conformed to productivity gains much more closely than in the 1950's,
and price increases have been much more modest.
The guideposts offer a standard for responsible business, labor, and Government leadership in an environment of informed public opinion. They
are an attempt to operate our economy as it is—-without controls, without
wholesale fragmentation of our large, successful enterprises—and to maintain
stable prices while using our resources, our capital, and our labor to their
full potential. They are in the tradition of America, asking those to whom
the society has entrusted economic power to exercise it in ways consistent
with the national interest.
TABLE 12.—Changes in productivity, wages, and prices in the private economy since
1947
Productivity i
Year
Trend
productivity 2
Total
compensation per
man-hour
Prices
Implicit
GNP
deflator
Wholesale
Consumer
Percentage change 3
1948.
1949.
8.6
2.5
6.8
—.8
8.3
—5.0
7.7
-1.0
3.7
3.7
3.5
5.7
9.3
5.9
5.8
3.3
1.2
7.9
1.6
.6
.8
4.0
11.4
-2.8
-1.4
.2
1.0
8.0
2.2
.8
.4
4.4
.2
3.5
2.4
3.6
3.0
2.5
2.8
2.5
2.8
2.9
6.1
5.9
3.6
4.6
.9
3.1
3.5
1.7
1.6
.3
3.2
2.9
1.4
.2
-.3
1.5
3.5
2.8
.8
2.0
3.4
4.5
2.9
3.1
2.3
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.6
3.6
4.0
3.1
3.8
1.2
1.0
.7
1.2
1.4
.1
-.4
.3
-.3
.2
1.6
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
3.6
2.8
7.1
2.5
2.2
4.0
1.8
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1
2
3
Output per man-hour for all persons; labor input based primarily on establishment data.
Average annual percentage change in output per man-hour during latest five years.
Percentage change from previous year, except trend productivity.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Departmenc of Labor, and Council of Economic Advisers.
757-981 0 — 6 5
8
IO9
Large corporations and labor unions can—and generally do—use their
power to play a constructive role in our economy. At the same time they
must be accountable for their actions to public opinion, and must recognize
that the public will ask "Why?"
—when a union insists on a wage settlement that, if universally applied,
would mar the price record of the economy;
—when a firm or industry agrees willingly to a wage settlement above
the guideposts which it then translates into higher prices for its
products;
—when a firm or industry with extraordinary productivity gains fails
to share the benefits with consumers in the form of lower prices;
—when a firm or industry with average productivity gains chooses to
raise its prices.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES
The formulation of domestic economic policies must take account of the
impact of these policies on the economies of other countries and on our
international relations. A strong U.S. economy promotes growth and prosperity abroad. At the same time, a vigorous and growing world economy
and expanding world trade contribute to our own growth, stability, and
vitality.
High among immediate U.S. priorities is the necessity for further strengthening of our international payments position. While devoting special attention to balance of payments problems, we will also continue to work actively
toward the attainment of longer-range international economic goals: liberalizing the world's trading arrangements; strengthening the economies of the
less developed countries; and further improving international monetary
arrangements.
In all of these areas, important progress has been made in the recent past,
but major tasks remain. This section outlines near-term and longer-run
policies for carrying out these tasks.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: PROSPECTS AND POLICIES
The U.S. payments position showed further improvement between 1963
and 1964 while the economy was registering major gains in income and
employment. But even more substantial reductions in the payments deficit
must remain among the key objectives of national economic policy.
Longer-run prospects
Evidence accumulated during the past year generally confirms the conclusion of last year's Annual Report of the Council that the longer-term prospects for continued improvement in the U.S. payments position are favorable.
With domestic prices remaining essentially stable, it should be possible
to consolidate and extend the recent improvement in the competitiveness of
HO
our exports. Moreover, exports will be aided in coming years by continued
strong growth of incomes abroad. Demands for labor-saving investment
goods—in the development and production of which the United States has
traditionally pioneered—should increase. The stronger position of primary
producing countries, furthermore, may continue to add significantly to
these countries' demands for American products.
Income from past investments abroad should continue to rise rapidly. Further progress is also being made in the reduction of the balance of payments
cost of military and other government transactions overseas. At the same
time, however, our persistent deficit on tourist account will continue to
reflect rising incomes at home and growing interest in foreign lands. U.S.
imports, too, will grow as our economy expands. But it is encouraging
that the growth of U.S. imports in recent years has been somewhat smaller
than might have been expected on the basis of experience in earlier periods
of economic expansion. This apparently reflects, in part, the improved
competitiveness of American products.
The future course of U.S. direct investment abroad will be influenced by
conflicting forces. Sustained prosperity in the United States may encourage investment at home rather than abroad. An increasingly less receptive
attitude on the part of a number of foreign countries toward an expansion
of American ownership may deter direct investment. At the same time,
however, American firms still have strong incentives to expand their facilities
or open new ones in widening foreign markets, particularly the European
Economic Community (EEC).
New issues of foreign securities in the U.S. market, as already noted,
were restrained by the Interest Equalization Tax in 1964. Revisions that
are being recommended in the U.S. tax treatment of earnings of foreign investors in the United States should encourage increased purchases
of U.S. securities. Current efforts to improve and enlarge capital markets
abroad should also bear fruit over the longer run, although foreign demands
on U.S. capital markets are likely to remain substantial for some time to
come.
Problems and policies
While the analysis of key factors underlying our basic payments position
leads to a favorable over-all appraisal, there are various uncertainties in the
more immediate future that are cause for concern. The very large gains in
our trade balance recorded since early 1963, for example, may be difficult to
repeat. Moreover, the factors mentioned earlier which gave rise to exceptionally large capital outflow in late 1964, while expected to have less force in
coming months, might tend to delay satisfactory progress toward balance in
our international accounts. Thus, the Administration is currently undertaking an intensive assessment of our near-term balance of payments prospects
and their implications for policy. The results of this assessment will be the
subject of a special Presidential message in the near future.
Ill
It is clear that continued U.S. success in maintaining cost-price stability
associated with rapid gains in productivity is fundamental to improvement
in our balance of payments. Also required are sustained efforts to promote
American exports and to encourage tourism within the United States by
both Americans and foreigners. And, for the time being at least, we
cannot relax the various special measures now in force, such as the tying
of foreign aid, which are designed to keep the balance of payments cost
of U.S. Government expenditures abroad at the lowest practical level
consistent with our foreign policy and national security objectives.
With the help of appropriate policies, we must move decisively toward international balance, thereby reinforcing the position of the dollar as the
world's major reserve currency. As we succeed in this endeavor, we can expect to encounter some demand by both private and official foreign holders
for additional short-term dollar assets needed to help to meet their growing
liquidity requirements. Under such circumstances, the United States can
reasonably supply a limited volume of additional dollars in keeping with
the ultimate objective of equilibrium in its payments position.
Two broad principles will continue to govern our choice of policies.
First, policies directed at the balance of payments must remain coordinated
with our over-all national economic policies. Second, truly effective measures to strengthen the balance of payments of any major trading and investing nation—especially a key-currency country—cannot be devised by individual countries in isolation. The burdens and benefits of adjustment must
be shared by deficit and surplus countries. Indeed, further progress toward
reasonable balance of payments equilibrium among all countries requires
close cooperation among economic policy-makers here and abroad.
TRADE
The growth of world trade is strongly influenced by the commercial
policies which trading nations pursue, individually and collectively. The
reduction or elimination of barriers to trade and measures for its further
expansion were intensively discussed in two major international forums during the past year—the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)
and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Kennedy Round
The Kennedy Round of trade negotiations opened formally in Geneva
last May and got under way in earnest toward the end of the year. The
objectives of the United States, whose participation in these negotiations
was made possible by the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, are a 50 percent
cut in tariffs on as wide a range of industrial products as possible, the substantial liberalization of trade in agricultural products, the reduction or
removal of nontariff barriers to trade, and the opening of greater trade
opportunities to the less developed countries.
The working hypothesis adopted by the GATT nations is to apply 50
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percent tariff reductions across the board to industrial products which are
not specifically excluded by the participating countries. In November, after
many months of intensive preparatory work, the major trading nations
submitted their "exceptions lists," identifying the products which they wished
to withhold from all or part of the 50 percent tariff cut. Successfully passing this major milestone implicitly reaffirmed the commitment of the major
trading nations to a substantial lowering of tariff barriers.
Progress has been slower in the negotiations on agriculture. The United
States has insisted from the start of the preparatory discussions that agricultural products, as well as industrial products, must be included in the
forthcoming negotiations. From the standpoint of both its own interest and
that of the world trading community, the United States is concerned lest, in
the process of eliminating intra-EEC barriers on trade in agricultural products, the EEC countries erect new external restrictions. It is important
that further development of the EEC contribute to the growth of over-all
world trade as well as to the expansion of commerce within the Community.
The United States remains eager to negotiate tariff and other trade concessions with the EEC countries which will cover agriculture as well as industry. Our objective is to achieve meaningful tariff concessions that will
expand world trade.
According to the principles laid down by the GATT Ministers, the less
developed countries are not expected to offer full reciprocity for the concessions extended to them by the developed countries. These countries will
stand to benefit from the elimination of tariffs on tropical products
and also to some extent from the reductions in tariffs on industrial products
and the liberalization of agricultural trade.
As 1965 opens, the United States looks forward to successful negotiations in the Kennedy Round. These negotiations, expected to run through
the current year and perhaps into 1966, will be complex and difficult, for the
stakes are high—involving as they do the vital interests of 40 or more
participating nations. Success will stimulate trade expansion and closer
economic cooperation, stepping up worldwide productive capacity and
efficiency and contributing to rising incomes and greater human welfare in
all countries; failure would risk the onset of a new wave of protectionism.
The years immediately ahead may be among the most dramatic and rewarding in our continuing drive for trade liberalization begun thirty years
ago.
UN Conference on Trade and Development
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
provided a forum primarily for the less developed countries to express their views on the present legal and institutional framework governing world trade, and to make a series of suggestions for trade policies to
promote economic development. The Conference was the first of its kind,
and revealed a striking unity among 77 less developed countries in urging
"3
changes in the existing order. Permanent machinery—-a Trade and Development Board—has been established under the United Nations for
the continuing study of related trade and development problems. The
UNCTAD participants also agreed to hold a similar formal conference in
1966, and every three years thereafter. In the meantime, the United States
and other advanced countries are engaged in a major reexamination of
their individual and collective economic policies toward the less developed
countries.
The UNCTAD focused attention on many trade and development issues
of particular interest to the developing countries. Recommendations
adopted by the Conference without dissent dealt, among other things, with
the removal of obstacles to the expansion of developing countries' exports; the
promotion of trade among developing countries; studies of means to provide
additional compensatory and supplementary financing to offset short- and
long-term losses of export earnings; and a study of an interest equalization
fund to encourage the use of previously untapped international financial
resources.
The proposal that developed countries grant generalized tariff preferences
to the exports of manufactures and semimanufactures from developing countries was strongly pressed at the UNCTAD. The Conference was unable
to agree on a positive recommendation regarding preferences, but the issue
remains of primary concern to the developing countries and is receiving
further study.
The United States has chosen to play a major role in the organization of
post-UNCTAD activities. We are hopeful that these sessions will be profitable for all concerned, and that they will be used to advance the widely
shared objective of a more rapid expansion of trade and economic development throughout the world.
FOREIGN AID
U.S. foreign assistance policy is based on both humanitarian and national security considerations. It also is based on two premises regarding the
development process: first that external assistance plays a vital role in
furthering economic growth, frequently providing the difference between
satisfactory growth and stagnation; second, that such assistance can only
complement efforts by the recipient nations in their own behalf.
In recent years the United States has increasingly concentrated its aid
in those countries that have the best prospects for growth and that demonstrate a willingness and ability to help themselves, thereby ensuring that our
assistance will make a maximum impact in promoting economic development. Such aid serves a variety of purposes: to help to broaden the capital
base of developing countries; to facilitate the transfer of skills and knowledge
through technical assistance; and, in some instances, to assist in the maintenance of the political and economic stability that is a prerequisite for
economic growth.
114
In Latin America, our development loans and technical assistance are
channeled through the Alliance for Progress as part of a broad cooperative
effort by the nations of the Western Hemisphere. Outside the Western
Hemisphere, major recipients of U.S. development assistance include India,
Pakistan, Turkey, and Nigeria. In those countries still faced by immediate
threats to their security, military assistance—amounting to more than onefourth of total U.S. foreign aid—supports local defense forces, thus freeing
a portion of the recipients' domestic resources for development purposes.
In the years ahead, gross aid disbursements must continue to rise if the
current momentum of economic development of the poorer nations is to be
maintained and accelerated. Consequently, the United States is pressing
for greater aid contributions from those advanced countries that can clearly
afford larger programs, as well as for a general easing of the terms on aid
loans, i.e., for lower interest rates and longer maturities. As the public and
private external debt burdens of the less developed countries mount, the
need for lengthening the maturity and grace periods of future loans becomes
more urgent.
Private investment from developed countries is another and, in the long
run, perhaps more important, potential source of capital—as well as of technical and managerial skills—for less developed countries. To stimulate
greater U.S. private participation in economic development activities, the
Agency for International Development (AID) offers U.S. businessmen a
wide range of investment guarantees, local currency loans, and special services by AID Missions abroad. The Administration has also proposed an
investment tax credit for U.S. firms investing in developing countries.
The United States is gradually eliminating AID assistance programs in a
number of countries, such as Taiwan, where rising incomes and expanding
investment opportunities are now attracting substantial and increasing
domestic savings and relatively hard loans from abroad. In the near future,
other nations can be expected to make the same transition, though, in still
others, successful development may require larger imports of capital in the
short run.
Successful and balanced growth in low-income areas is a complex evolution in which social, political, technical, and human change are all interwoven. Such growth cannot be attained instantaneously, but there have
been solid accomplishments. In helping 75 countries to help themselves, we
are engaged in an undertaking of indefinite duration but also of inestimable
importance to the current and future economic and political health of the
entire world.
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY ARRANGEMENTS
During 1964, questions regarding the future of international monetary arrangements came to the forefront of public discussion. Two thorough
studies of the present functioning and the future needs of the system were
completed last August, one prepared by the Deputies of the Finance Min-
"5
isters and Central Bank Governors of the leading industrial countries known
as the "Group of Ten," the other by the staff of the International Monetary
Fund (IMF). These formed the basis for a number of steps taken at the
Annual Meeting of the Governors of the Fund that promise to improve
the functioning of world monetary arrangements. The studies also led to
frank and open discussions of those longer-run issues on which agreement
had not yet been reached. The actual course of monetary developments
during the year, moreover—notably those connected with the defense of the
British pound against speculative attacks—helped to bring both the strength
and the limitations of existing monetary arrangements into even sharper
focus.
As the Council's Annual Report for 1964 pointed out, a properly functioning international monetary system should promote steady growth of the
world economy. It should (a) minimize disruptive and speculative conversions of foreign exchange into gold and prevent such conversions from reducing international liquidity; (b) encourage adjustment of imbalances by both
deficit and surplus countries in ways that avoid imparting either a deflationary or an inflationary bias to the world economy, and that foster greater
freedom of international transactions; (c) make adequate but not excessive
financial resources available to permit achievement of these objectives. The
reports of the Group of Ten and the IMF examined present and prospective
international monetary arrangements from each of these viewpoints.
Areas of substantial agreement
The two reports (which reached broadly similar conclusions) revealed
a wide range of issues on which the financial authorities of the major
industrial countries are in substantial agreement. No abrupt change in
present institutional arrangements was considered either necessary or desirable. Thus, the report of the Group of Ten stressed that the existing
international monetary system based on fixed exchange rates and the established price of gold has "proved its value as a foundation on which to build
for the future." It also declared that over-all liquidity "seemed fully adequate under present circumstances to cope with possible threats to the stability of the international payments system." At the same time, it suggested
that the growth of world trade and payments is likely to require larger
liquidity in the future, involving further increases in credit facilities, and,
in the longer run, "possibly" calling for some new form of reserve asset.
For the nearer term, there was substantial agreement that growing liquidity needs could largely be met by a further expansion of credit, reinforced by increasingly close cooperation among monetary and other
financial authorities. The network of bilateral and multilateral credit facilities that has been built up in recent years—including reciprocal swap
arrangements, ad hoc central bank support operations, and the issuance
of special medium-term bonds to creditor countries for reserve purposes—
has proved a flexible and highly effective instrument for expanding usable
116
liquidity, particularly when needed as a defense against sudden speculative
attacks. Further use of such devices was recommended, given proper safeguards. At the same time, stress was placed on the likelihood of enlarged
future needs for the use of medium-term credits from the IMF. The two
reports therefore recommended—and the Governors of the Fund subsequently directed—that consideration be given to a moderate general increase in Fund quotas (probably of about 25 percent) and to appropriate
additional selective quota increases.
As a means of encouraging the economical and efficient use of gold, the
Fund report favored the handling of new quota subscriptions so as to
"mitigate the repercussions of gold payments on the gold reserves of the
contributing members and of the reserve centers that may be affected."
The report of the Group of Ten took a similar position. In the case of the
United States, such mitigation would seek to limit reductions in U.S. gold
holdings occasioned by the increase in IMF quotas to the amount of the
United States' own gold contribution—a contribution that would carry
with it an equivalent assured drawing right on the Fund. If, by contrast,
other countries bought gold from the United States in order to make their
contributions to the Fund, U.S. reserves and the total of world reserves
would be reduced.
In discussing credit facilities, the reports also noted that there had as yet
been little provision for long-term lending for monetary purposes. Some
of the Deputies of the Group of Ten suggested, therefore, that in certain
exceptional cases, countries with large and growing reserves might properly
extend longer-term loans to other industrialized countries in need of additional reserves. Such long-term loans might in certain instances be in the
general interest of all the industrial countries. Appropriate long-term
adjustment by a low reserve country may be more effective when that country pursues a gradual return to payments surpluses than when it attempts an
abrupt balance of payments improvement that requires severe deflationary
measures and could disrupt international trade. Such long-term arrangements could be attractive to lenders, provided that the loan could be shifted
to a country in a stronger reserve position if the reserve position of the
original lender should decline substantially.
Any expansion of credit facilities, of course, also carries significant risks.
Undue reliance on the use of such facilities may delay the initiation of corrective actions—on the part both of deficit and of surplus countries—that
are appropriate to bring payments positions into better balance. Such risks
are increased if insufficient information is available regarding the total volume of actual credit extensions.
To deal with such problems, and to provide a firmer basis for the further
expansion of credit facilities, the Group of Ten agreed that bilateral financing and liquidity creation should be subject to "multilateral surveillance," to
be conducted primarily under the auspices of the OECD. This will essentially involve a more regular and systematic exchange of information on
117
the means of financing both deficits and surpluses. At the same time, the
Group of Ten suggested intensive further study of the nature of the adjustment process in international payments and of the optimal "mix" of
monetary, fiscal, incomes, trade, and other policies for the achievement of
both internal and external objectives. Such a study—also under OECD
auspices—is now under way.
Some major questions remaining to be resolved
Looking toward the possible future need for a new type of reserve asset to
supplement gold and foreign exchange, the Group of Ten established a study
group on the Creation of Reserve Assets. Broadly speaking, the study group
was asked to examine and compare two general approaches. One approach
would introduce a new reserve unit by formal decision of the member
countries of the Group of Ten. While such a new unit could take a
variety of forms, one proposal which has been put forward is for a collective
reserve unit closely linked to gold in its creation and use.
A second major approach would be based on acceptance and further development of gold tranche and similar claims on the IMF as international
reserve assets. There are several techniques by which the total of reserve
assets in this form can be varied in accordance with economic and financial
conditions as they affect the reserve needs of Fund members, particularly
the industrial countries which account for the bulk of the movements in
international reserves.
It is natural that the views of individual countries with respect to future
arrangements should reflect their current positions and problems. Despite
this divergence, there is probably general agreement that a system of reserve creation must avoid exposing surplus countries to inflationary pressures from an excess of liquidity in the hands of deficit countries. At the
same time, procedures for reserve creation and international lending must be
sufficiently flexible to permit payments imbalances to be corrected in a way
that gives full recognition to the importance of economic growth and flourishing trade.
Questions raised by more recent experience
The defensive capabilities of the international monetary system were
demonstrated late in 1964 by the decisive moves to counteract the sudden
speculative attack on sterling. The ability and determination of the international financial authorities to mobilize needed resources on short notice
provided impressive backing for the conclusions of the Group of Ten and
IMF reports that existing arrangements are fully capable of coping with
major speculative attacks.
Yet the events of 1964 underlined the fact that the international monetary system has further problems to solve. Foremost among these is the
question of improving the balance of payments adjustment process through
policies—pursued by both deficit and surplus countries—that are consistent
118
with steady economic growth, reasonably stable prices, and freedom of international transactions. Some of the measures adopted in 1964 to deal
with imbalances, though justified by circumstances, would clearly be inconsistent with basic objectives if maintained for long. We must continue
to work toward the proper mix of facilities to finance imbalances and
policies to correct them.
Chapter 3
Strengthening the Efficiency and Flexibility
of the Economy
T
HE STRENGTH of the American economy reflects its characteristic
adaptability to rapid change—its ability to generate new products and
new technological processes, to replace old industries by new ones, and
to absorb a vast influx of labor from varied backgrounds. The foundation
of our economic system is the freedom of resources to find their best uses,
facilitated by a system of flexible markets which channel savings to lenders,
raw materials to industrial users, finished products to consumers, and labor
and capital from industries of decline to those of growth.
Our markets have performed these functions well, but policy must work
steadily to improve their effectiveness. With larger increases in the labor
force now upon us and the skill requirements of jobs rising, flexibility of our
labor markets is being put to severe tests. For over seventy years, the
Federal Government has accepted responsibility for sustaining a competitive
economy. This job is never finished. The competitive structure of industry and the operation of markets for its products need continually to
be strengthened. Government has increased the scope of its activities,
making efficiency in its use of resources more important than ever before.
Several of the most important policy advances of the last few years serve
to improve the flexibility of the economy to adjust to rapid changes in our
resources and technology.
This chapter deals with policies to:
— increase the flexibility of our labor force and our labor markets;
— strengthen competition and improve our methods of regulation;
— enlarge consumer information;
— encourage the spread of civilian technology;
— spur regional recovery and industrial adjustment; and
— promote efficiency in Government.
Policies to foster a more flexible economy serve broad economic and
social objectives. Full employment is promoted by fitting workers for
available jobs. Price stability is served by increasing competition in industry. Simultaneous achievement of full employment and price stability
are enhanced by encouraging the movement of labor and capital in response
120
to changes in demand for final products. By equipping workers, firms,
and regions to contribute more effectively to our general prosperity, these
policies help to assure a wider and more equitable distribution of the benefits of prosperity.
A dynamic economy involves change, and change creates the need for
adjustment. Old techniques of production give way to new, making
workers' skills obsolete and destroying the value of old capital and materials.
The composition and the character of products change, raising the prosperity of some industries but leaving others behind. And as our products
and technology change and resources are exhausted, the pattern of industrial location alters, and whole areas may suffer high unemployment and
economic decay.
If our economy is to maintain its capacity to grow, Government must
ease the human adjustments to economic change and assure the redirection of people and capital to new purposes. Fortunately, improvements
in the adjustment capability of the economy serve both purposes: the most
effective way to reduce the human cost of adjustment is to restore the productivity of the affected people, industries, and areas, thereby enhancing
growth.
TOWARD A MORE PRODUCTIVE USE OF OUR LABOR FORCE
America's great productive capability is due to a highly productive
labor force. It reflects the health, education, skill, mobility, and motivation
of the people, as well as the Nation's capital stock and advanced state of
technology. If the contribution of the labor force is to continue growing,
our human resources must be further strengthened and the effectiveness of
our labor markets must be improved. Only then will each worker find
the employment in which his potential productivity is greatest.
A labor market that efficiently matches workers and job opportunities
also serves other objectives of economic policy. It permits raising the sights
of our employment targets without risking inflation, thereby helping to
reconcile two vital policy objectives, full employment and price stability.
It plays a key role in restoring to a productive life workers displaced by
technological change and in guiding new workers into areas of expanding
job opportunities.
The American economy has traditionally been characterized by an adaptable and highly mobile labor force. Members of this labor force—generally
better educated and trained than those of any other country in the world—
have filled the jobs created by advancing technology and have responded
to shifting patterns of final demand.
The changes that have occurred have been enormous. Some have taken
place so smoothly that we have barely been aware of them. This has been
121
the case, particularly, when the total number of jobs was sufficient—when
the market had enough jobs to allocate. Other adjustments have been
more difficult, leaving in their wake high unemployment rates and poverty
for some groups. Government must focus its effort on those changes which
the market cannot carry through without personal hardship, even in a
high-employment environment.
The task of economic analysis is to identify both those changes that the
market cannot carry through effectively on its own and those that can and
should be left to market forces.
CHANGES IN THE COMPOSITION OF EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
AND OF THE LABOR FORCE
Changes in the over-all pattern of employment in this century have been
substantial (Table 13). The amazing rise of productivity in agriculture
and the slower growth of demand for its products reduced the percentage
of the work force in farm occupations steadily and continuously, from almost
40 percent at the turn of the century to only 5 percent today. The revolution
in management and marketing techniques and the growth of service industries and professions increased the share of white-collar employment from 18
percent to 44 percent during the same period. The share of employment accounted for by blue-collar occupations has been generally steady, but the
amount of unskilled work has declined sharply as mechanical and electrical
power have replaced human energy.
TABLE 13.—Distribution of the economically active civilian population, by major
occupation group, selected years, 1900-64
[Percent]
Major occupation group
1900
1920
1940
1960
1964 1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100
White-collar workers
Professional, technical, and kindred workers
Managers, officials, and proprietors except farmClerical and kindred workers
Salesworkers
17.6
4.3
5.8
3.0
4.5
24.9
5.4
6.6
8.0
4.9
31.1
7.5
7.3
9.6
6.7
42.3
11.4
8.5
14.9
7.4
44
12
9
16
7
Blue-collar workers
Skilled workers 2
Semiskilled workers»_.
Unskilled laborers *___.
35.8
10.5
12.8
12.5
40.2
13.0
15.6
11.6
39.8
12.0
18.4
9.4
39.6
14.3
19.9
5.5
39
14
20
5
9.0
5.4
3.6
7.8
3.3
4.5
11.7
4.7
7.1
11.7
2.8
8.9
13
3
10
37.5
27.0
17.4
6.3
Total-
Service workers
Private household workers
Service workers, except private household _
Farm workers 5
1 Estimated from Monthly Labor Force Survey data, using 1960 Census data as benchmark.
Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred workers.
Operatives and kindred workers.
< Laborers, except farm and mine.
5 Farmers, farm managers, farm foremen, and farm laborers.
NOTE.—Data relate to June 1900, January 1920, and April for the years 1940,1960, and 1964.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
2
3
122
The employment changes have resulted from shifting patterns of demand
for labor—as the techniques of production and the nature of the final products have changed—in combination with the rising educational attainment of
the labor force. In 1900, 6 percent of the high school age population
received secondary school diplomas; today this figure exceeds 70 percent.
The percentage of the college age population enrolled in college increased
from approximately 4 percent to 36 percent. As shown in Table 14, median
years of schooling among the civilian labor force, aged 18 to 64, rose by
one-third between April 1940 and March 1964—from 9.1 to 12.2 years.
TABLE 14.—Distribution of civilian labor force 18 to 64 years of age, by educational
attainment, 1940, 1952, and 1964
Years of school completed
April 1940
October 1952
March 1964
Percent
Total, 18 to 64 years of age.
100.0
100.0
100.0
Less than 5 years.
6-8 years
___
9-11 years
12 years
13-15 years
__.
16 years or more. _
9.2
40.4
18.4
19.7
6.5
5.7
6.8
29.6
19.1
27.8
8.5
8.1
3.4
20.0
19.4
35.4
10.7
11.2
9.1
11.1
12.2
Median school year completed.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
The portion of the work force with eight years or less of education—that
is, the group particularly ill suited to work under conditions of modern
technology—declined in a generation, from 50 percent of the labor force
to 23 percent. Today this group consists primarily of people beyond the
age of 45, and its number is shrinking rapidly.
LABOR MARKET ADJUSTMENT
The effectiveness of labor markets in adjusting to change will receive one
of its severest tests in the next few years. The composition of demand for
labor will continue its gradual shift toward higher skill levels. But the more
dramatic changes will come on the supply side of the market as the size of
the labor force expands rapidly and its composition is substantially altered.
The degree of flexibility in the network of labor markets is not the same
for different groups or different types of adjustment. This is illustrated
below in two ways. First, some major long-run trends in the supply and demand for labor are presented to illustrate how the economy has been
adjusting to change. Employment and unemployment among female,
Negro, teenage, and part-time workers show a variety of responses to the
changes in labor market conditions. Second, the adequacy of the balance
of skills demanded and supplied is examined: years of education, occupational skills, and industrial attachment play an important part in this balance.
123
Women resuming job careers
The response of the labor force to rapidly increasing job opportunities is
most clearly demonstrated by the growth of the female labor force. Both
the number of women seeking work and the number of jobs open to them rose
sharply in the postwar period. Women constituted only a quarter of the
labor force in 1947, but between 1947 and 1964 they provided 58 percent of
the growth in the labor force and 64 percent of the increase in employment.
Of the total of 9.5 million additional women in the labor force, half was
due to the growth of the female population and half was due to the rising
percentage of women looking for jobs. Women between 45 and 64 particularly became more active job-seekers. In 1947, 29 percent chose to be
in the labor force; by 1964 the figure had risen to 47 percent. Most of
these women moved into the rapidly growing employment opportunities in
trade and service sectors of the economy. The flexibility of the labor market
is shown by the fact that the unemployment rate for older women has
fallen relative to the total female unemployment rate despite the much more
rapid growth of the numbers of older women seeking work. These women
still constitute a sizable reservoir of talent—some highly trained—available
to respond to further expansion of demand for their services.
Negroes seeking employment opportunities
The adjustment powers of the labor market have been least adequate for
Negroes. During the postwar recessions, a disproportionately large number
of Negroes lost their jobs; when recovery came, many of them were not
reemployed. Part of this was due to inadequate training, part to job
discrimination. In addition, the Negro labor force grew somewhat faster
than the white, particularly in urban areas where migration from farm to
city was a major element. In both 1950 and 1964, the unemployment rate
for whites was 4.6 percent, but the rate for Negroes rose from 8.5 percent
in 1950 to 9.8 percent in 1964. Despite a reduction during the past year,
Negro unemployment is more than twice that for whites. The ultimate
elimination of this difference must be a key goal of our manpower policies.
Teenagers entering the labor force
The great increase in the number of young, inexperienced workers constitutes the most important change in the labor force during this decade.
Recent increases in teenage employment, cited in Chapter 1, are an encouraging sign of the labor market's ability to absorb inexperienced workers
when total employment rises rapidly. Yet relatively high teenage unemployment rates, 15 percent in 1964, make it clear that an insufficient number
of jobs is channeled to this group.
Future increases in the number of teenagers will provide an even more
severe test of the adaptability of the labor market. Because of the low
birthrates during the Great Depression and World War II, the number of
teenagers in the labor force actually declined through the mid-1950's. It
then began to rise and by 1960, there were 5.8 million persons aged 14-19
124
in the labor force; by 1964, the number had increased to 6.5 million; and
by 1966 it is expected to be 7.5 million. Thereafter the rate of increase
will slow appreciably. Without specific policy measures aimed to improve
the access of teenagers to job opportunities, their unemployment rates will
continue to be high under any except labor shortage conditions. The successful absorption of these new workers into high-productivity jobs is the
greatest test now confronting our labor market and our general economic
and manpower policies.
Teenagers and women seeking part-time employment
Increases in part-time employment are closely related to the larger
number of females and teenagers in the labor force. Many women and
teenagers seek part-time jobs that will permit them to keep house or go
to school but still provide opportunities to supplement family income.
Between May 1957 and May 1964, the part-time labor force increased by
3 million, to a total of 8.8 million. Adult women (20 years of age and
above) and teenagers of both sexes accounted for most of the increase.
During this period, part-time employment rose by 2.7 million, resulting
in an increase in the rate of part-time unemployment paralleling the rise
in the full-time rate. The continuous expansion of the female and teenage
population groups will cause the part-time labor force to increase further.
Every major industry increased its proportion of part-time workers, with
the most significant increases occurring in wholesale and retail trade and in
services and finance. These two industries not only provided the bulk
of the private economy's employment gains, they also provided most of the
increase in part-time employment. Manufacturing industries offered relatively less part-time work because of the difficulty of adjusting production
schedules.
Balance of labor skills and requirements
Unemployment rates for skilled occupations are well below average rates,
but show two rather different trends. The rates for craftsmen and foremen
have fallen recently relative to the total rate, while those for professional
and technical workers have risen. In 1964, the unemployment rate for
craftsmen and foremen was 4.2 percent, the lowest since 1956. The rate
for professional and technical workers was 1.7 percent in 1964, substantially
above levels in the mid-1950's (Table 15).
The relative decline of unemployment for craftsmen and foremen may be
due to an increase in the relative demand for skilled workers or to the
effect of an extended period of high unemployment on the supply of this
type of labor. Since much of the training for skilled workers is acquired in
apprenticeship and other on-the-job training programs, this particular labor
force grows very slowly during a period of high unemployment. Few new
workers are hired, workers laid off may go to other industries, older workers
retire, and the number of people admitted to apprenticeship programs falls.
When job expansion resumes, the labor force is smaller, and the unemployment rate drops quickly.
757-981 O—65
9
1^5
TABLE 15.—Unemployment rates by major occupation group, 1957-64
[Percent 1]
Major occupation group
1957
Total-
1959
1962
1946
4.3
5.5
5.6
5.2
White-collar workers:
Professional, technical, and kindred workers
Managers, officials, and proprietors, except farm..
Clerical and kindred workers
Sales workers
1.2
1.0
2.8
2.6
1.7
1.3
3.7
3.7
1.7
1.5
3.9
4.1
1.7
1.4
3.7
3.4
Blue-collar workers:
Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred workers..
Operatives and kindred workers
Laborers, except farm and mine
3.8
6.3
9.4
5.3
7.6
12.4
5.1
7.5
12.4
4.2
6.5
10.6
Service workers:
Private household workers
_
Service workers except private household -
3.7
5.1
4.8
6.4
4.9
6.4
4.9
6.1
Farm workers:
Farmers and farm managers
Farm laborers and foremen
.3
3.7
.3
5.1
.3
4.3
.5
5.8
i Unemployment as percent of civilian labor force in group.
Source: Department of Labor.
Increases in the unemployment rate for professional and technical workers
since 1959 are partly linked to unemployment among those individuals who
have college training (Table 16). Increased flows of young college graduates into the labor force in the past several years have eased shortages that
may have been felt earlier in this particular segment of the labor market.
Shifts in defense production have also reduced the demand for these classes
of workers.
Employment trends for less skilled labor, persisting since the Korean war,
have recently been reversed. During the period in which the gap between
actual and potential output developed, employment of semiskilled factory
operatives, for example, expanded at a much slower rate than total employment. As a result their unemployment rate rose. But the acceleration of
economic expansion in 1964 was felt particularly in the Nation's factories,
creating many employment opportunities for operatives. Between 1962 and
1964, when total employment increased by 4 percent, employment of operatives rose by more than 7 percent. This has reduced their unemployment
rate from 7.5 to 6.5 percent (Table 15).
TABLE 16.—Unemployment rates of males 18 years of age and over, by educational
attainment, selected dates, 1952-64
[Percent l ]
Years of school completed
1952
Total..
Less than 8 years..
8 years
9-11 years
12 years
13-15 years
16 years or more..
1
1957
1959
1962
1.5
4.1
6.3
6.0
5.2
2.3
1.4
1.6
1.1
1.1
.4
6.9
4.4
9.8
7.3
8.1
4.9
3.3
1.4
9.2
7.5
7.8
4.8
4.0
1.4
8.4
6.9
6.6
4.1
3.8
1.5
4.7
3.0
2.7
.6
Unemployment as percent of civilian labor force in group.
NOTE.—Data relate to March of all years except 1952. Data for 1952 relate to October.
Source: Department of Labor.
126
1964
With an expanding economy, the employment situation for those with
less education has improved. As shown in recent years, an adequate
rate of growth expands employment opportunities in industries and occupations where semiskilled and unskilled workers can find jobs. If growth
is not adequate, the unskilled and semiskilled are the ones who find jobs
most difficult to locate. Furthermore, rapid and sustained expansion facilitates the adjustment to changing skill requirements by providing continuing
opportunities for acquisition of new skills on the job.
Unemployment in durable goods industries
Looking at the balance of skills and workers by industry rather than
by occupation reveals that the employment opportunities in durable goods
manufacturing have risen particularly sharply with the accelerated rate of
growth of the past few years. With an unemployment rate of 4 percent by
the end of 1964, the pool of unemployed workers in durable goods manufacturing was smaller than in any year since the Korean war. During the
years of high unemployment, the labor force of this industry group shrank,
as some workers switched to other industries and those who retired or died
were not replaced. The continuing growth of durable goods production will
test the ease with which the durable goods labor force can be expanded once
again. A combination of job opportunities and high wages will attract
labor to these industries, but firms will have to train these workers instead
of relying on the recall of unemployed skilled workers. This would be a
return to the historic role of these industries of drawing in the unskilled
young workers and workers from rural areas and training them on the job.
To channel some of the greatly increasing number of new workers into the
durable goods industries will be one of the great challenges to private and
public manpower policies. Today, teenagers account for 9 percent of the
labor force, but only 3 percent of workers in durable good industries.
MANPOWER POLICY
An active manpower policy—sensitive both to the strengths and the limitations of the labor market—must develop our manpower resources to give
everyone the opportunity to make the best use of his abilities, and must
improve the organization of the labor market to provide the best possible
matching of people and jobs, without regard to race, creed, sex, or age.
Creating jobs
Between now and 1970, about 1.5 million new jobs a year will be needed
to absorb the growing labor force and to reduce unemployment to a 4 percent
level. Furthermore, output, income, and jobs will have to expand to offset
normal increases in output per man-hour. Even more jobs and lower unemployment can be achieved through effective policies.
127
Major responsibility for achieving our employment objectives must rest
with fiscal and monetary policies. In addition, we shall need policies
aimed at developing our manpower resources, increasing the efficiency with which labor markets adjust to changes in the demand for and
supply of labor, and revitalizing depressed areas. This combination of
policies will reduce the likelihood that inflation will impede the pursuit of
full employment and will ameliorate the human costs incident to a changing
job market.
Developing manpower resources
Our system of general education is the foundation upon which specific
occupational and professional skills are built. It provides an adaptability
to change that pays dividends throughout an individual's work life. The
problems of providing universally accessible educational opportunities of high
quality are considered in Chapter 4.
Occupational competence is obtained in many ways, including on-thejob training organized by employers; apprenticeship and union-sponsored
training programs; private technical institutes; trade and business schools;
the Armed Services training programs; and Federal, State, and local
government programs.
The Department of Labor has studied the ways in which labor force participants with less than three years of college education acquired their occupational and professional training. As shown in Table 17, about one-third
of those interviewed had formal training (in schools, apprenticeship programs, or the armed forces) to prepare them for their vocation; only 7
percent of laborers, but 65 percent of professional and technical workers,
had this kind of preparation. Among skilled workers and foremen, 41
percent had formal training. All but a few of the least-skilled categories
contained high percentages with on-the-job training. Casual methods were
important for all categories.
Public policy is increasingly focused on the needs of the young and the
disadvantaged. Our rapidly growing teenage labor force must be enabled
to acquire the skills required in today's world. Negroes must be prepared
for the skilled jobs that will become increasingly available to them as discriminatory barriers are removed. And older workers displaced by technological
change must be reequipped for new jobs.
Vocational education is an important type of formal training to prepare
youth for skilled jobs. Yet experience with training programs in recent
years has revealed the limited scope and obsolescence of some of our public
vocational education. High school programs that include generous amounts
of general education and concentrate on skills relevant to clusters of occupations are most likely to provide students with the flexibility to adapt to
future occupational changes. The Vocational Education Act of 1963 was
designed to meet that objective. In cooperation with State and local educational systems, the Act provides programs for all age groups, from high
128
school students and dropouts to adults who can profit from training or
upgrading or who need specialized training to become reemployed. It also
calls for systematic review of the curriculum of the programs.
TABLE 17.—Training taken by persons in civilian labor force1
Percent reporting job learned b y Current occupational group
Total
Percent
reporting
no training
needed
Formal
training 2
On-the-job3
training
Casual
methods *
30.2
56.2
45.4
7.5
White-collar workers:
Professional, technical, and kindred workers
Managers, officials, and proprietors, except
farm
__ _ _ __
C lerical and kindred workers
__
Sales workers
.
_
_ _ __
64.6
66.7
33.2
2.1
36.2
53.6
23.4
57.1
71.4
60.2
55.7
29.5
47.4
4.0
2.0
7.5
Blue-collar workers:
Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred workers
Operatives and kindred workers
Laborers, except farm and mine
40.6
12.9
6.9
64.8
61.8
40.0
47.5
42.6
50.5
1.8
8. .6
18.1
Service workers:
Private household workers
.__
Service workers, except private household
10.3
24.6
9.3
45.5
56.4
42.7
27.9
13.5
Farm workers:
Farmers and farm managers
Farm laborers and foremen
20.6
11.1
17.6
19.2
79.7
64.8
8.4
17.7
_._ _
1
2
Data relate to survey taken in April 1963.
Includes training obtained in schools of all kinds (company training schools as well, where training was
full-time
and lasted at least 6 weeks), apprenticeship, and armed forces.
8
Includes on-the-job training by supervisors, company training courses (part-time, or full-time for less
than
6 weeks), and "worked way up by promotion."
4
Includes learning from a relative or friend, "just picked it up," and other such methods.
NOTE.—Since about one-third of the respondents indicated more than one way, the sums of the percentages exceed 100. These figures include all civilian labor force participants aged 22 to 64 with less than
3 years of college. For the unemployed, data relate to the last job held.
Source: Department of Labor.
Apprenticeship is another important system for training youth to be
skilled workers. About two-thirds of apprentices are in programs registered under the Department of Labor. The remaining one-third are mainly
in unregistered courses run by large employers. Small firms have been
generally inhibited by the cost of training and by their inability to insure
that trained workers would remain with the firm. Recently, these costs
have been lessened by funds made available under the Manpower Development and Training Act (MDTA) for pre-apprenticeship and on-the-job
training programs. The extent of the apprenticeship training programs
depends on the current and anticipated need for trained labor. Therefore,
prosperity encourages on-the-job training. However, employers cannot
recover the full benefits of such programs, since workers trained at their
expense may move to other employers. Thus, cooperative programs by
groups of employers should be encouraged.
Three Government programs started in recent years have been directed
at helping those in especially unfavorable circumstances to acquire the
attitudes and skills that will enable them to attain, or regain, employment.
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The Area Redevelopment Administration (ARA), established in 1961,
has provided training and training allowances for unemployed and underemployed persons in depressed areas. Training has been provided for more
than 40,000 workers, about 70 percent of whom have found jobs.
MDTA programs were established in 1962 to offer training for unemployed and underemployed workers with previous work experience. Training allowances were provided for a period of up to 52 weeks. Training,
mostly in institutional programs, has been authorized for more than 350,000
persons. Machine operation and auto repair work have been the most
common courses for men, and clerical and nursing courses for women.
The Economic Opportunity (Anti-Poverty) Act will emphasize work
and training for youth through such programs as the Neighborhood Youth
Corps, the Job Corps, and the Work-Study Program. These are discussed
in greater detail in Chapter 4.
Improving the functioning of the labor market
For the labor market to operate efficiently, job opportunities must be open
to all qualified individuals; workers must have knowledge of alternative employment opportunities; and employers must have a means of making their
manpower needs known. It is therefore important that unions and professional and business organizations avoid restrictions on entry and hiring
designed to enhance the incomes and employment opportunities of the
restricted group. Such restrictions can be as injurious as monopoly in the
sale of goods.
About three-quarters of all jobs are now filled without the use of any placement agency, public or private. But the way in which the remaining jobs
and workers are matched may spell the difference between an efficient and
an inefficient labor market. The 1,900 State employment service offices
affiliated with the U.S. Employment Service are designed to fulfill this task.
Many of the young teenage labor force entrants need testing and counseling if they are to make wise vocational choices. The State employment
services, in cooperation with the schools, now provide testing services to
approximately one-half of the Nation's high schools. Counseling and
testing are provided for about one-fifth of the new applicants at employment service offices.
The employment service should be available to all workers, regardless of
occupation or current employment status. Greater separation of unemployment insurance activities from other employment service functions
is desirable to strengthen counseling, training, referral, and placement
activities. In large metropolitan areas, employment service offices that
specialize by industry can provide better services to both employers and
workers in those industries than can be supplied by offices that try to cover
the whole range of industries. Specialized offices are now in operation in
41 of the 56 largest metropolitan areas.
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In addition, special services are required for those who are at a competitive disadvantage in the labor market—the inexperienced, the undereducated, the unskilled, older workers, the handicapped, and minority
groups. Some special services for these groups are now being provided—
including those related to ARA, MDTA, and anti-poverty programs. During the coming year, emphasis will be placed on employment services for
younger persons. The services will include exploratory interviews, counseling, and testing; referral to community agencies for diagnostic and remedial
assistance; and strengthening of placement efforts, including those directed
at rapidly expanding part-time employment opportunities.
An effective manpower policy also will require better information on the
current and future structure of supply and demand in local labor markets.
Experimental surveys of job vacancies during the coming year will help
to fill an important gap in manpower statistics.
The employment service can become an important aid to geographic
mobility in our dynamic economy. An increase in interarea exchange of
job information can contribute to this goal. The current experimental
program in the use of relocation allowances, revised and expanded as necessary, can help to translate this interarea information into effective
placements.
The Nation's flexible labor markets have enabled us to adapt to dramatic
changes in labor supply and demand. They provide a solid foundation
upon which to build an effective manpower policy that can both increase
the efficiency of the labor market and open up new opportunities for those
burdened by past disadvantages or faced with exceptionally difficult shifts
in market supply or demand.
A manpower policy that is geared to steady employment for all who seek
work, that deals responsively with the income, training, and placement
needs of the unemployed, and that meets the special problems of distressed
areas and groups will reinforce the ability of our economy to grow and
will facilitate adjustment to change.
COMPETITION AND REGULATION FOR A FLEXIBLE
MARKET ECONOMY
Decentralization of economic power has long been considered desirable
for social and political reasons, as well as for its contribution to an efficient
economy. Absence of active competition tends to result in higher prices
and lower output, and thus in a less efficient allocation of resources. Noncompetitive industries may also lack the spur to innovation and change, as
sellers find it easier as well as more profitable to use obsolete facilities or
produce familiar products. They may be less concerned with keeping their
costs under control if they have no difficulty in passing higher costs along
to their customers.
Yet modern technology requires large-scale operation in many industries,
and, for the most part, our society reaps the benefits in the form of lower
costs, better quality, and continuing research and innovation. In many
industries, a high concentration of output among a small number of firms
is not inconsistent with highly active competition, especially where there
is also a fringe of small firms, where entry of new firms is easy, or where
there exists active competition from substitute products. Yet it is also
true that it is often easy for firms to avoid competition when an industry
is dominated by a small number of very large firms. It is the difficult
task of public policy to preserve the benefits of competition while retaining
the advantages of our complex and highly productive industrial system.
And even where competition is imperfectly effective, it may sometimes be
preferable to tolerate the imperfection if the only alternative is complicated
Government regulation—which, unless carefully and regularly reviewed,
may become bureaucratized, rigid, and possibly dominated by the interests
of those regulated.
TRENDS IN INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE
The U.S. economy is large, complex, and fluid. It contains about 5
million businesses and 2 million commercial farms. Within the manufacturing sector alone, there are more than 300,000 firms, of which 175,000
are corporations. During 1964 nearly 500,000 new businesses were started.
Thousands more were discontinued or merged, or transferred their operations from one industry or locality to another.
Within the important manufacturing sector, certain structural trends
have emerged in the period since the end of World War I I : (1) Through
internal expansion and merger, large firms have grown more rapidly than
the manufacturing sector as a whole. As a result, their share of the total
market for all manufactured goods has risen. (2) Within some individual
industries, the concentration of production in the hands of the 4 firms with
the largest shares of the market has increased; in others it has decreased.
Over-all, concentration within specific industries has shown no significant
trend.
The market share of the 100 largest U.S. manufacturing firms has grown
rapidly since World War II. Chart 14 shows that, between 1947 and 1962,
their share of value-added in manufacturing grew from 23 percent to 32
percent. And their share of all manufacturing assets increased from 39 to
45 percent between 1950 and 1962. Partly this has resulted from expanding
markets in a growing economy and from able and efficient management.
It has resulted also from the postwar merger movement which will be discussed below.
132
Chart 14
Shares of Largest Companies in Manufacturing
AS MEASURED BY VALUE ADDED
PERCENT OF VALUE ADDED ±1
30 "
20 -
1947
1954
1958
1962
J/ VALUE ADDED IN MANUFACTURING.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
Concentration within specific industries is frequently measured by the
share of an industry's shipments attributable to the 4 firms with largest
shipments. Table 18 shows that this measure of concentration has risen in
some major manufacturing industries but fallen in others. In 1947, 24
percent of manufacturing shipments were in industries in which the 4
firms with largest shares of the market accounted for at least half the
shipments. In 1958, the figure was 23 percent, indicating little, if any,
trend during the period.
An important part of the explanation of these opposing movements—the
increasing influence of large firms in total manufacturing activity while
concentration in specific industries shows no significant trend—can be found
in the size and character of the postwar merger movement. The Federal
Trade Commission has recorded more than 11,000 mergers since 1948.
Since 1950, the 200 largest industrial corporations have acquired more than
2,000 other concerns, and 257 of the 1,000 largest manufacturing corporations have disappeared through merger. Mergers of large firms grew
rapidly in number and importance from the end of World War II until
1955, fell off briefly, and then continued to grow again after 1959.
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TABLE 18.—Concentration in selected industries, 1947 and 1958
Value of
shipments
1958
(millions of
dollars)
Industry
Primary aluminum
Locomotives and parts
Tin cans and other tinware.
Cigarettes
Computers
Motor vehicles and parts 2 ~
Tires and inner tubes
Aircraft engines
Steel works and rolling mills 2 ..
E lectric appliances 2
Meat packing plants
Cement, hydraulic
Petroleum refining
Machine tools.
Percent of value of shipments accounted for by
4 largest firms
1947
1958
802
387
1,804
2,159
1,076
6,419
2,272
100
91
78
90
69
56
77
0)
3,359
5,980
755
1,677
1,069
14,106
685
72
50
36
41
30
37
20
56
53
43
34
32
32
21
95
80
79
77
75
74
1
Not available.
Data are for value added rather than value of shipments.
Source: Department of Commerce.
2
Earlier merger movements were characterized largely by "vertical"
acquisitions among firms that were in a buyer-seller relationship and by
"horizontal" acquisitions among competing firms. Anticompetitive mergers of both kinds are now effectively prohibited by our antitrust laws.
Many of the more recent mergers, however, have been "conglomerate"—
that is, the acquisition by one firm of another in an unrelated product line,
normally to achieve economies of management or sales or diversification of
risks. These, too, are subject to the antitrust laws, but their effects on competition are more complex and more difficult to establish. On the one
hand, it can be noted that an already large firm in another industry which
finds it easy to enter new product lines is often the most effective source of
active or potential competition in a product market that has become
imperfectly competitive. On the other hand, a large conglomerate firm
may be able to reduce competition in an industry previously characterized
by small firms.
Expansion into new and unrelated product lines, whether by conglomerate merger or by the creation of new capacity, has permitted an increase
in the share of the total manufacturing market supplied by large firms, without increasing (and perhaps with decreasing) concentration within individual industries. In 1958, one or more of the 100 largest manufacturing
concerns were among the 4 firms with the largest shipments in 550 of the
1,014 product classes identified by the Census of Manufactures. And 95 of
the 100 largest companies were among the 4 leading producers in 2 or
more product classes.
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POLICIES TO MAINTAIN COMPETITIVE MARKETS
Our antitrust laws have helped to achieve the delicate balance between the
economic benefits which flow from the research, innovation, and advanced
technology of large scale business organizations, and the adverse effects of
unnecessary or artificial obstacles to competition. In the 75 years since the
passage of the Sherman Act, the Congress and the courts have attempted
to adapt our antitrust laws both to our changing economic system and to
our growing understanding of how that system operates.
Legislative, judicial, and enforcement activities have all contributed to
the strengthening and clarification of our antitrust policies in the postwar
period. Enforcement activity has been vigorous during each of the postwar
Administrations, attesting to the bipartisan nature of the Nation's belief in
maintaining maximum competition consistent with a productive and
efficient economy.
A series of judicial interpretations since 1945 has helped to clarify the
meaning of the laws. More precise criteria have been developed with regard
both to the structure of industry—the degree of concentration that generates
excessive market power—and to the performance of industry—the abuse of
market power.
Concern over the growing postwar merger movement led to a strengthening of the Clayton Act in 1950. Subsequent judicial decisions have confirmed that horizontal or vertical mergers through the purchase of stock
or assets are illegal, whether consummated in the past or proposed for the
future, if they may have the effect of substantially reducing competition.
The law with regard to conglomerate merger is not yet clear. Further cases
would define the law more precisely. The uncertainty which surrounds
existing law, while in part unavoidable, imposes many costs and limitations
on business, some of which could probably be eliminated without significant
loss to enforcement of antitrust policy.
Effective antitrust policy involves a close partnership between economics
and the law. Sound economic analysis needs to be used to define the relevant
market, to assess the extent of concentration and barriers to entry of new
firms, and to evaluate business policies. Equally important is the development of sound economic criteria for the selection and preparation of
antitrust cases, since the desirability of many business actions depends on
their economic setting and significance.
FEDERAL REGULATION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
In the vast majority of industries, competition is the most effective means
of regulation. But in a few industries, technological and economic factors
preclude the presence of more than one or a few firms in each market. When
these industries provide an important service to the public, direct control
is substituted for competition. The independent Federal regulatory commissions were established in the transportation, power, and communication industries because competition could not be expected to protect the
public interest. In other areas, regulation is aimed at providing the public
with reasonably full knowledge of the market. In particular, securities
and certain commodity markets have become so complex and technical
that regulation is necessary to insure that buyers and sellers have access to
accurate and reasonably comprehensive information.
It is important that regulatory policies be adapted to changing needs
and conditions. Economic and technological progress may lead to changes
in the desirable scope and method of regulation. In some important cases,
competition has become substantially more effective since regulation was
first established. In cases where competition is not possible, there may be
alternatives more effective than regulation. The establishment of Comsat,
a joint public-private venture in the area of space communications, is an
example of a new institution designed to take advantage of a new technological opportunity.
The fields of transportation and electric power offer illustrations of the
changing circumstances of regulated industries.
Transportation
Technological and economic changes have revolutionized the transportation industry since the establishment in 1887 of the Interstate Commerce
Commission, our first independent regulatory commission. Technological
progress has led to the introduction and development of highway, air, and
pipeline transportation, which now supplement and compete with rail and
water transportation. The latter could, in turn, compete more effectively
with the newer forms—and to their own and the public's benefit—if they
were not restrained by certain aspects of regulation.
The transportation revolution has created a variety of alternative means
for the movement of people and goods. Few communities or industries
are dependent now upon a single means of transportation for access to the
outside world, as was normally the case in the 19th century. Given these
new alternatives, there are some respects in which it would be desirable to
increase the role of competition and the scope for initiative among transportation companies. Appropriate reduction of the scope of Government
supervision over rates (particularly minimum rates) and, in some cases, over
the choice of operating routes would strengthen competition among various
modes of transportation, increase efficiency in the utilization of transportation resources, and encourage more rapid technological progress. At the
same time, there is an increasing need for improved planning and coordination of intercity as well as urban mass transit systems.
Electric power
Technological progress in the generation and transmission of electricity
has resulted in a need for coordination and integration of the Nation's
power systems. Large generating plants can yield substantial economies,
whether they use atomic or conventional fuels. The development of extra
high voltage transmission lines permits electricity to be sent economically
136
over long distances. The Federal Power Commission, in its National Power
Survey, has recently documented the great economies available from an
intensified program of interconnection and coordination among the 3,600
separate power systems in this country.
In some cases, economies in generation can be realized by substituting one
large plant for several individual plants, each serving a single small community. Interties between systems permit economies from the coordinated
operation of several systems: power can be shared between systems with
noncoincident peakloads; reserve generating capacity for breakdowns,
maintenance, and unexpected demands can be shared; the building of
new capacity can be staggered between neighboring systems to meet growing demands without the waste of idle capacity; better use can be made of
scarce hydro and steam plant sites; and greater flexibility in plant location
can reduce urban air pollution problems.
Our national power supply system consists of a variety of public, private,
and cooperative institutions. Exploitation of modern technology requires
increased emphasis on the planning, coordination, and operation of large
systems. This will require cooperation among all types of power suppliers
and experimentation with new forms of public and private planning. Such
experimentation has begun with the Pacific Northwest to Southwest intertie.
The National Power Survey points to the many opportunities that lie ahead.
CONSUMER INFORMATION
The end use of nearly two-thirds of production is current consumption.
Even the most efficient productive system will not create a high level of
economic welfare unless consumers can make free and informed choices.
With a rising GNP, the spectrum of goods and services available to consumers has widened, and our distribution system has become increasingly
complex. Many new products have appeared, in part reflecting accelerated research and development expenditures of recent years, and in part
reflecting the adaptability of American manufacturers and distributors in
catering to new wants and desires of consumers.
All too often, however, consumers are not completely informed about
products available, and sometimes products are misrepresented, whether
by accident or intent. Most of the responsibility for providing consumer
information rests with private producers and retailers. Bxit where the
consumer is not able to obtain honest information, the Government has a
role to fulfill.
Consumers today are particularly subject to lack of information on the
terms and costs of credit. Too often they are unaware of the full cost of a
credit transaction, and are unable to compare financing costs because of
nonstandard ways of reporting interest charges. The consumer credit system has helped the American economy to grow and prosper, but the cost of
such credit must be made as clear and unambiguous as possible. The
137
truth-in-lending bill, requiring the total dollar amount of the finance
charges and the annual rate upon unpaid balances to be clearly stated to
borrowers, would eliminate many of the abuses in the credit area.
Abuses have also become acute in the packaging of products sold in retail
establishments. In today's marketing system, the package has become the
silent salesman. The package, therefore, should present in a clear and
comprehensive manner enough information to allow the consumer to make
informed choices. The truth-in-packaging bill would assure consumers of
simple, direct, visible, and accurate information as to the nature of the
product and the quantity in the package.
ASSISTING CIVILIAN TECHNOLOGY
The Council's last Annual Report contained a detailed analysis of the role
of technological change in promoting economic growth and discussed major
Government programs that help to advance civilian technology. Public interest in these matters is warranted since many markets tend to provide
firms with insufficient incentives to allocate resources to research and development (R & D ) . Benefits of research tend to be widely diffused among
many firms and even industries, making it difficult if not impossible for
firms to reap the full benefits created by their research. Also, the uncertainty and high cost of many research projects may make the risks prohibitive for small and medium sized firms. These factors become more important, the more basic the research, since the results of such research are
both more uncertain and more widely diffused. They explain why much
basic research is and should be supported by Government and by educational
and other nonprofit research organizations.
Advancing technology is an important element in strengthening our longterm international trade position. Last year, a large proportion of our
exports of manufactures were from high technology industries, such as
aircraft, data processing equipment, power generating equipment, and
instruments. The high productivity of the workers employed in these
industries, and the superior performance of the products, more than offset
the lower wage costs in Europe and Japan.
Research and development manpower talent has always been a scarce
and valuable resource. The supply can be expanded only slowly and at the
cost of forgoing the services of technical personnel in managerial, administrative, teaching, and other positions. If the present tendency toward
a leveling off in defense and space research and development expenditures
continues, the resources of scientific and technical manpower available to
the civilian economy will increase more rapidly than in the past. With
an increase in the number of scientific and technical personnel available
for civilian activities, business firms will be able to engage in civilian
research and development projects which they could not previously under-
138
take. They will be assisted by the 1964 and 1965 tax cuts which increase
the aftertax return on R & D undertakings, as well as on capital investment.
Similarly, the Government can increase its own civilian research efforts.
This is already being done in such areas as water desalting, supersonic air
transportation, and urban mass transportation. The Northeast Corridor
Project, to develop highspeed intercity passenger transportation over such
routes as Boston to Washington, is a recent and important example.
The Department of Commerce has proposed a State Technical Services
program to speed the spread of new technology. Under this program,
designated universities would offer technical services designed to meet the
needs of local industry. The services would include the analysis of local
problems to determine needs that might be met by new technology, reference
services, technical information centers, workshops, seminars, and training
programs. The program would be financed by local resources and Federal
matching funds.
Increased public and private support for higher education will strengthen
the efforts of colleges and universities to undertake more nondefense research
and to provide the humanistic and scientific education and technical training for our rapidly expanding student population. Greater support for
university research will strengthen the base of pure science on which applied
research and development depend.
REGIONAL RECOVERY AND INDUSTRIAL ADJUSTMENT
The changes that accompany growth do not proceed evenly and continuously. Communities and even entire geographic regions whose fortunes
are tied to a particular natural resource, pattern of transportation, or industry may decline as resources are depleted, technical changes destroy
earlier locational advantages, or shifts in taste lead to decline of the base
industry. Communities dependent upon a single firm for the bulk of their
employment are especially vulnerable to shifts in demand or plant location,
whether caused by market forces and private decisions or by changes in
Government programs.
Other communities are simply bypassed by economic growth. They are
the victims of a poor resource base, have never attracted adequate investment to develop their limited economic potential, and generally have suffered from many decades of underinvestment in education, health, and
community facilities.
Once a community is in prolonged distress, its difficulties feed on themselves. Its capacity for maintaining social investments in education, health,
and community services erodes. Young workers leave and there may be a
loss of talent to more prosperous places. Eventually, loss of population
can reduce the tax base below the critical level at which the existing scale
of community institutions can be sustained, and the community is caught
in an area-wide, self-perpetuating circle of poverty.
AREA REDEVELOPMENT ACT
In 1961, the Congress passed the Area Redevelopment Act (ARA), providing distressed areas with grants and loans for public facilities, loans for
commercial and industrial enterprises, technical assistance, and training
programs for the unemployed. Areas were designated to be eligible for
assistance on the basis of persistent unemployment above the national average, persistent low incomes, and a variety of other criteria. About 1,100
areas were declared eligible.
Unemployment in the designated areas fell from 10.4 percent in
1961 to 8.7 percent in 1963, while some areas improved to the point of
being removed from the designated group. In 1964, the improvement
accelerated, leading to the removal of an increasing number of areas from
the eligible list. These gains resulted from economic expansion of the last
four years; out-migration as employment prospects developed elsewhere;
retirements and other withdrawals from the labor force; and the salutary
effects of the ARA program.
The ARA projects have helped communities to plan for progress.
Commercial and industrial ventures in designated areas have received more
than $170 million in low-interest loans and assistance in establishing training programs. The communities have also received nearly $90 million of
loans and grants for public facilities, and $35 million for technical assistance
and training.
This experiment in regional development policy has shown that redevelopment can be facilitated by public programs. Analysis of the experience
also points the way for the next steps to improve the effectiveness of Federal
efforts. The principles that emerge are these:
First, the scale of assistance must be sufficient to make a significant impact
on the economic structure of an area. Designation of too many areas reduces the possibility of providing aid sufficient to break out of the circle
of poverty. Aid must be concentrated where it is most needed and where
it gives the greatest promise of producing self-sustaining recovery.
Second, the regions to be aided should be large enough to include a resource base for self-sustained growth and to support the full range
of community services and public utilities. However, they should not be
so large that a considerable share of the aid may fall outside the communities in distress. The areas under the present programs were defined on a
county or a labor-market basis. In some cases these were appropriate
units, corresponding to genuine economic areas; but in other cases they
were too small.
Because of the decrease in population, some counties have reached a point
of decline where it is difficult to achieve self-sustaining recovery through
Federal efforts. In such instances, the people of the area are likely to be
better served by the expansion of job opportunities in towns within commuting distance.
140
Clusters of industry and commerce attract other firms; public facilities
adequate to attract industrial and commercial growth are often difficult
to provide in very small communities; adequate communication, low-cost
transportation, and other necessary community facilities are more likely
to be viable where industry and commerce are concentrated. Thus, Federal aid can be more effective if smaller local areas are induced to combine
into larger development regions containing towns with potential to form
the basis for self-sustained growth. These towns could develop the capability to employ workers from nearby distressed areas.
Third, new programs must place major emphasis on investment in those
community facilities that are commonly deficient in depressed areas. Little
real growth is possible without adequate water and sewerage facilities and
other community services that directly affect the ability of an area to attract
industry and commerce. Yet a long history of poverty and a weak tax base
are likely to leave a community with inadequate funds—or borrowing
power—to meet these preconditions. Federal grants to aid construction
of some of these facilities are one of the key means for breaking a community's circle of poverty. In addition, they release local funds for further
development efforts.
Fourth, if there is to be assurance that Federal aid to a region is to lead to
recovery, the region must develop a plan for its progress. The communities
of the region must work together, sharing the aided community facilities,
planning land use for new industry, arranging for training and retraining
of workers in new skills, and developing a program for attracting industry.
The development of a meaningful plan should mobilize private and public
local leadership of the region.
The President will propose renewal and revision of the ARA program
shortly.
APPALAGHIA
Of the distressed areas of the country, Appalachia, with 355 counties in
11 States, is the largest and presents uniquely difficult problems. Always a
poor rural region, its main source of prosperity, coal mining, has undergone
a very sharp decline. For this reason, its redevelopment requires public
measures not necessary in smaller areas. The Administration has established a special Appalachian Regional Commission; under the guidance of
the Commission and the local development districts, a series of proposed
programs were designed to develop human and material resources.
The resulting Administration proposals include new authorizations of
$840 million for a system of development highways and access roads which
will open up the region for industry and tourism and widen the horizons
of the population; $147 million for health, vocational education, farming, mine area restoration, and other new projects; and $90 million to
supplement funds available to local communities under existing Federal
grant-in-aid programs. Additional funds will be made available under
757-981 O—'65
10
I 1
4
other existing programs to accelerate development in the region. These
measures, carried out with strong participation of State and local governments, should, over a period, serve to bring Appalachia and its people closer
to the level of economic well-being of the rest of the country.
ADJUSTMENT ASSISTANCE TO PREVENT AREA DECLINE
Both the regional recovery and Appalachia programs deal with deepseated economic maladjustments that require the rejuvenation of an area or
region. Areas do not become distressed overnight. They sink into that
status through some specific decline of the economic base, frequently
followed by inertia and stagnation, finally producing a closed circle of low
incomes, low opportunities, poor schools, bad diets, departure of the most
qualified young people, weak social structure, and finally, chronic poverty.
The time to head off this pattern of developments is at the first sign, the
initial blow to the economic base. For this reason, there is increased interest in adjustment programs that will quickly put a threatened community
on the road to recovery.
Frequently, the first sign of impending deterioration is the closing of a
major plant. Each year, numerous plants close all over the United States,
invoking substantial layoffs of workers. Usually, a single plant is a small
part of the economic base, in which case there is little hazard of area
depression. But in some cases the plant is large in relation to the community, and in a few cases it is the major employer.
Some of these cases occur as a result of changing defense expenditures or
the shutting down of Government installations. Both the Defense Department's Office of Economic Adjustment and the Atomic Energy Commission's Office of Economic Impact and Conversion have helped communities and firms to meet changes which may involve reconversion of firms to
new products, recruitment of new employers, and finding alternative employment opportunities for laid-off workers. The President's interagency
Committee on the Economic Impact of Defense and Disarmament is currently preparing a comprehensive report on this subject.
The Trade Expansion Act provides for technical and financial assistance
for firms in cases where disruptions are directly attributable to competition
from imports. Special aid is also given to employees in the form of trade
adjustment allowances (extended unemployment compensation), relocation
allowances, and training. These provisions need to be more fully implemented in the years to come.
The recently formed President Task Force on Community Assistance is
designed to provide aid in cases of local economic distress caused by largescale layoffs. Growing out of the Government's successful ad hoc program
to aid South Bend, Indiana, after a major plant closing, the Task Force has
since provided assistance to Lisbon Falls, Maine, and is currently studying
other communities where it might be of assistance. If the threatened unemployment is substantial and the impact can be anticipated, it would be
142
preferable to take remedial actions before major layoffs occur. Advance
designation for aid under regional recovery programs would be a useful step.
For cases arising out of technological change, the Congress has charged
the National Commission on Technology, Automation and Economic
Progress to explore public and private means "to facilitate occupational
adjustment and geographical mobility, and to share the costs and help
prevent and alleviate the adverse impact of change on displaced workers,"
EFFICIENCY IN GOVERNMENT
Governments, Federal, State, and local, account for 21 percent of our
production, of which the Federal share is about half. Flexibility and efficiency in the private sector are, for the most part, assured by market forces;
efficiency in Government requires constant reassessment of the value and
costs of public programs.
Minimizing costs. Many of the methods of increasing productivity and
reducing costs in the private sector, such as improved management procedures and the adoption of modern technology, have made possible similar
gains in Government. The use of electronic data processing equipment, as
in the Internal Revenue Service, and of management training programs, as
in the General Services Administration, can raise efficiency in these Government agencies, just as they have in large private firms.
The Administration has placed major emphasis on measures to increase
Government efficiency. Over-all responsibility for encouraging improved
organization and management in the executive branch of the Government
rests with the Bureau of the Budget. In 1964, it completed a major study
of ways to measure productivity in Government organizations.
Gains in efficiency have been particularly great in the defense program
during the last four years. They have been assisted by cost-effectiveness
studies, using modern analytical techniques of decision making to discover
least cost solutions and weigh costs of programs against their alternatives.
Public civilian investment. A large part of our public expenditure is
devoted to durable physical assets which contribute, over time, to productivity in public and private civilian activities. In fiscal year 1965, Federal
Government expenditures for civilian public works will be about $7.8 billion.
Federal investment expenditures should only be undertaken if they yield
a good social return. The use of carefully drawn economic evaluation
criteria can help to assure, at least in some fields, that public investment
yields a social payoff as great as the resources could yield in the private
sector. The longevity of dams, roads, and other kinds of public capital
requires that decisions regarding outlays be based on careful forecasts of
events in the distant future. And to assure the best use of capital within
the public sector, the economic criteria must be uniformly applied.
Pricing of public services. Most public services—such as defense—are
provided for society as a whole. However, certain public services—particu-
larly in transportation, communications, and water resources—are provided
for identifiable groups or for individuals. Whenever beneficiaries can be
identified meaningfully, fair prices and user fees can encourage efficient use
of Government-supplied goods and services and preserve equity among
various groups in the economy.
The next chapter discusses several outstanding tasks of public policy.
These will require increasing investment of resources in the coming years.
If these tasks are to be carried out, existing programs must be carefully
reviewed to assure that they are conducted without waste, at minimum
cost, and that obsolete activities are cut back or abandoned. Further,
the new programs must be designed to accomplish their goals effectively with
the least necessary outlay of resources.
The public tasks ahead are of such scope that only an efficient Government, conscious of its responsibility to the taxpayers, and relentlessly pursuing every path to lower costs and increased productivity in Government,
can hope to achieve success. It is therefore doubly important to promote
efficiency in Government.
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Chapter 4
Some Economic Tasks of the Great Society
T
HE UNITED STATES has long been a rich country. The abundance of our material output is one of the wonders of the world.
Our per capita income is greater by half than that of the advanced countries of Western Europe and many times that of the less developed countries which contain 2 billion of the world's 3 billion people.
Yet we know that our society is imperfect. The President has sounded
the keynote for a new effort to address ourselves to social problems which
have been in our consciousness but which we have failed to attack with the
full use of the great technical, social, and economic resources that we possess.
World War II, and the long cold war diverted our effort to other matters.
We have been too preoccupied to take a careful look at our society to assess
the changes that have taken place and the new opportunities that
have developed.
Today, we have grown accustomed to the ceaseless burdens of being a
great power, of preserving nuclear superiority and holding the line around
the perimeter of the Western World.
The trauma of the Great Depression has healed as our economic system
has shown its ability to avoid depression and, for the last few years, even
recession. The steady expansion of output and employment—with remarkable price stability—has raised our sights, leading us to demand more of
our economic system.
The role of the Federal Government changed in the New Deal of the
1930's and in World War II. The Government accepted responsibility for
assuring a minimum of economic well-being for most individuals, for many
special groups, industries, and agriculture. It undertook the task of
stabilizing the economy against the destructive power of the business cycle,
and it developed more active policies for resource development, transportation, business regulation, and labor relations. Its defense program
made it the biggest purchaser in the economy.
After years of ideological controversy, we have grown used to the
new relationships among Government, households, business, labor, and
agriculture. The tired slogans that made constructive discourse difficult
have lost their meaning for most Americans.
It has become abundantly clear that our society wants neither to turn
backward the clock of history nor to discuss our present problems in a
doctrinaire or partisan spirit.
145
We are ready to take a large step forward, to put on the agenda tasks
long undone, to use our creative powers to build a better America—to move
toward the Great Society.
The initial agenda for the Great Society does not lie solely in the realm
of economics, though most of it has an economic dimension. It looks
toward development of our human resources, preservation and improvement of the environment in which we live and work, and it dedicates itself
to advancing the well-being of the individual.
In earlier chapters, policies to create an economic foundation for these
goals have been discussed. The present chapter considers the following tasks:
—meeting the challenge of urbanization;
—educating our citizens for a complex world;
—raising health standards for all Americans;
—reducing poverty; and
—assuring equality of opportunity.
The following material is designed to present factual background and
analytical insights into the economic aspects of these tasks and their
achievement.
URBANIZATION OF OUR SOCIETY
Today, America is an urban nation. In 1960, 125 million people, 70
percent of our population, lived in urban places—places with a population
of 2,500 or more. Half a century earlier, less than half of our people
resided in urban areas (Chart 15). And the forces promoting urbanization are not likely to abate. By the year 2000 over 250 million people,
4 out of 5 of the population, are likely to be urban.
Moreover, the urban population is increasingly concentrated in metropolitan areas—clusters of cities and suburbs and their nearby hinterlands.
New York, the largest, had 10.7 million people in 1960. Altogether, onethird of the U.S. population lived in 24 metropolitan areas containing a
million or more people. Another 30 percent lived in the remaining 188
metropolitan areas. But 10 million of the urban population still live in the
smaller towns that are not part of metropolitan areas.
The urbanization of our society has been greatly accelerated by immigration from abroad and migration from farm to city. Most of the European
emigrants to this country poured into the rapidly growing cities of the late
19th and early 20th centuries. This population movement came to an
abrupt halt with World War I and the subsequent introduction of immigration quotas.
As the great immigrations from abroad reached their peaks and receded,
an equally massive internal migration from rural to urban areas began. In
many ways it has produced social and economic effects as far-reaching as
the earlier waves of immigration.
146
Chart 15
Urban Population in Relation to Total Population
PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATION
c)
25
OLD URB IkN DEFINITION
1/
50
75
100
'
1800
1820
zu
1840
1860
1
1880
1
1900
^
1920
%^%^^
^^^^^
1940
^
^
^
1950
-
.
1
,
'"
j
•: "
.-'.I
1960
1
NEW URB AN
DEFINITION 1/
1950
1960
CENTRAL CITIES
OTHER URBAN
J/FOR DEFINITION OF URBAN, SEE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, BUREAU OF THE CENSUS,
1960 CENSUS OF POPULATION, VOLUME I, PART 1.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Although the movement of people from the land to the cities is not new, it
has reached new proportions in recent years. Indeed, the size of this internal migration is not generally appreciated: over 1 million a year have
left the farm since 1940. A minority of the migrating farm families have
found new opportunities in rural communities. The vast majority have
sought new jobs in urban areas. And others besides farmers have left
rural areas, bringing the total influx to the urban areas of 25 million.
Finally, the high birthrates of the postwar period have contributed as
much to the absolute growth of urban populations in the last two decades
as has the migration of people from rural areas.
CHANGING STRUCTURE OF URBAN AREAS
The rapid growth of population in our metropolitan areas has been accompanied by major changes in the locational patterns of life and work.
The growth of cities has long taken place primarily by outward movement
at the fringes. During the postwar period this process has been characterized by its speed and its tendency to take place beyond the boundaries of
central cities. Between 1940 and I960, the share of the metropolitan population living in central cities fell from 63 percent to 51 percent; the population of central cities rose by only 12 million, while the metropolitan population outside central cities rose by 28 million. Between 1950 and 1960, the
central cities of 14 of our 15 largest metropolitan areas lost population.
The flight to the suburbs has been motivated by a desire for more
space, fresh air, and privacy, and by a desire to escape from the social
disorganization of the city. It has been facilitated by high postwar incomes, by the ready availability of federally guaranteed mortgage credit,
and by the automobile.
Many businesses also have been moving from central cities. Retail
businesses and, to a lesser extent, wholesale businesses have followed
the population to the suburbs. Manufacturing industries have been growing
much faster in the suburbs. By 1960, half of the jobs in manufacturing in
metropolitan areas were outside the central cities.
A major reason for the migration of manufacturing industries is their
desire for space. Expansion is difficult and costly in the central city locations, and modern technology places a premium on continuous one-floor
operation. The rise of trucking, and, in many instances, the decreasing
dependence on bulky raw materials, have tended to free manufacturing
industries from the need to locate near railroads, rivers, and harbors. More
widespread ownership of cars by workers has also increased the flexibility of
plant location.
There has been continued concentration in central cities of financial,
legal, and specialized business and consumer services. Cultural and educational facilities, central office administration, and governments have also
shown preference for expansion in central city locations.
By and large, the transformation from rural to urban and from urban to
metropolitan areas has been consistent with the search for greater economic
opportunity and higher economic rewards. Urban areas offer far more
opportunities for high-paying jobs and urban people enjoy higher incomes.
With some exceptions, our largest metropolitan areas rank near the
top in this respect. But in the wake of this transformation have come
serious problems of adjustment: for the rural areas, adjustment to decline;
for the central cities, adjustment to change in population structure and economic base; and for the suburbs, adjustment to rapid growth.
PROBLEMS AND UNMET NEEDS OF URBAN AREAS
Existing institutions have responded only partially to the rapid growth
and changing economic structure of our large cities. Many public and
private efforts are already devoted to our urban problems, but the time is
ripe for a more comprehensive response.
Our concern is both with the disadvantaged in the city and with the
quality of the physical environment. Some of the human problems—educa-
148
tion, health, and poverty—are common to rural and urban areas; they will
be discussed more generally later in this chapter.
Human problems of the cities
Rural-urban migration has created problems of adjustment for the migrants and for the areas receiving them. Existing urban educational
systems, social groupings, and economic structures have been unable to
absorb smoothly the rapid influx of the poor, uneducated, and unskilled
among the rural migrants.
Many have found it difficult to adjust to the new economic and social
environment. Because they lack skills, they are handicapped in an industrial society which is increasingly replacing unskilled labor with skilled labor
and machines. They become victims of impersonal business fluctuations
which affect most heavily the younger, the less skilled, and the nonwhite
workers. And if unemployed, they cannot fall back for food and shelter on
the extended family system of a traditional rural society.
As middle and upper income groups have fled to the suburbs, central
cities have been left with a disproportionately large share of the poor. This
situation has been aggravated by racial discrimination which often restricts
nonwhites to the older neighborhoods of central cities.
Poverty, lack of education and skills, and irregular employment stifle incentives for self-improvement and lead to social disorganization. Family
breakup, alcoholism, drug addiction, rising crime rates, and illegitimacy
have become major problems in our cities. Children in such environments, left to their own resources at an early age, quickly assume the ways
of the preceding generation, perpetuating the process of poverty. Society
must pay the costs through waste of human resources, increased public welfare expenditures, and decay of our social fabric.
The human problems are aggravated by the inadequacies of the physical
environment. The accommodation of a large population at very high
densities in cities which were shaped in an earlier technological era produces
living conditions with little privacy or amenity.
Urban decay
The blight and decay that afflict large parts of central cities are clear and
visible. Part of what we see is another reflection of poverty: poor people
cannot afford adequate, attractive housing. Another part results from the
decreased dependence of industry and trade on central city locations.
But blight in cities tends to be cumulative. The older structures concentrated near the city center lose their economic usefulness as the functions
of the downtown areas change. Extensive conversion, rehabilitation, and
reconstruction are needed. If a few buildings need to be replaced or
149
renovated in an otherwise prosperous area, the market provides private
developers and builders with sufficient incentives to undertake the work.
However, when a pattern of decay permeates a large area, the dilapidation
of neighboring buildings reduces the profitability of improving a particular
property. A large area must then be improved as a single unit, and the cost
and difficulties of acquiring and redeveloping a large tract of central city
land are likely to deter private investors from the undertaking. In such cases,
there is need for public policies to assist the private market in developing
property for new and improved uses.
Although inadequate housing is by no means the only aspect of urban
blight, it is the most important. Ten percent of all urban households—
about 3.8 million families—live in housing that is dilapidated or lacking
such amenities as plumbing facilities, piped hot water, and kitchen or cooking
equipment. Inadequate housing is particularly acute for nonwhites: only
7 percent of urban white families live in inadequate housing, compared with
32 percent of urban nonwhites.
In many U.S. cities, the process of urban blight is worsened by discrimination against nonwhites. Discrimination in housing markets provides a
captive market for dilapidated slum dwellings. Large profits can be made
by undermaintenance, since Negroes are virtually deprived of access to
adequate housing. The situation is sometimes aggravated by inadequate
enforcement of building codes and public health statutes. The success
of any effort to upgrade urban housing standards will depend on the elimination of racial barriers.
Commercial and industrial structures also become obsolete. The failure
to maintain these facilities reflects in part the greater attraction of suburban
locations. Here, too, it is sometimes difficult for normal market processes
to avoid cumulative deterioration, and achieve conversion to new uses.
Area-wide problems
The large metropolitan area typically consists of a central city and several
smaller suburban communities. In dealing with many of the public services
of the metropolitan area, it is desirable to take a broad view encompassing
the needs and preferences of all the constituent communities. This is true
in some instances because there are important economies that can be
achieved by acting in concert; in others, because decisions taken in isolation
by a particular community may have undesirable side effects on its neighbors. Thus, as metropolitan areas grow in size and diversity there is greater
need for some area-wide coordination and planning.
Land use. Efficient use and aesthetic development of the limited land
resources are major problems facing almost all urban communities. Private
uses compete with each other and with public facilities for space. Individual land use decisions affect the value of neighboring properties and the
general environment. These effects can be given adequate weight only if a
150
broader social view is taken, through appropriate taxation, zoning, and
other regulations.
In metropolitan areas, zoning and other land use restrictions need to
take into account the needs of the area as a whole, together with the special problems of the individual communities. Each community in isolation will zone its land use to suit itself, frequently banishing the less
desirable uses to outskirts remote from its center and residential areas, but
possibly near the living areas of neighboring communities. If the area is
to have an efficient transportation system and if enough land is to be set
aside for recreational purposes in convenient locations, a metropolitan
perspective must be added to local land use decisions.
Transportation. The movement of people and businesses to the suburbs
has greatly increased the burdens on our urban transportation systems.
Part of this increase has been due to commercial traffic—the result of expanded economic activity. The greatest part, however, has been due to
the growth of commuting between places of residence and employment.
People are commuting longer distances, and more are crossing city boundaries. During the 1960 Census week, nearly one-fourth of the 39 million
workers employed in our metropolitan areas commuted across the limits
of the central city.
By no means all urban traffic moves into the city in the morning and out
in the evening. As much as 29 percent of commuting across central city
limits takes place in the opposite direction. The decentralization of retailing, manufacturing, recreation, and other activities has meant that travel
patterns have increased in variety and complexity.
Commuters in most areas travel to and from work by automobile. This
has led to massive investment in streets and highways and in parking facilities. As roads have been extended and improved, more individuals have
been encouraged to commute by automobile, and congestion has continued.
This has stimulated a revival of interest in mass transportation.
An effective transportation system involves a combination of individual
and mass transit. The advantage of the automobile is its flexibility and
convenience in terms of time and place of travel, number of people, and
cargo. The advantage of public transit lies in its lower cost, more economical
use of space, and broader availability to persons unable to rely on automobiles. But no one system can do the job alone.
In many areas, patronage of public transportation has declined drastically;
between 1952 and 1962, revenue passengers carried by buses and streetcars in the United States dropped by 41 percent; and 194 transit companies
were abandoned between 1954 and the end of 1963. The loss of patronage
raises unit costs, requiring higher fares to break even, and leading to further
shrinkage of patronage. Railroads subject to the same process have abandoned many commuter routes. With the advent of the automobile, some
decline in patronage of public transportation was inevitable. Yet it might
not have been as great under a program of more balanced public develop-
merit of individual and mass transportation. While billions of public funds
have been spent on roads and streets, the mass transit systems have not been
able to attract private capital, nor have the central cities been able to invest
sufficiently to keep them from deteriorating.
Clearly, the transportation problems of a metropolitan area transcend
individual communities, whether they be the central city or the suburbs.
An effective transportation system for the metropolis should permit people to
move easily both between and within the suburbs and central city.
Individual communities working in isolation to solve their local traffic
problems are more likely to provide a patchwork than a logical system
of connecting routes. Thus, area-wide planning is required if an effective
transportation system is to be devised and coordinated.
Waste disposal and water pollution. The growth of urban population,
commerce, and industry has led to a rapid rise in the use of water. Little
water is actually consumed in most uses for which it is withdrawn. Most
of it is returned to some natural body of water, usually with some waste
or other deterioration in quality. If the quality has not deteriorated too
much, the water is available for reuse. Water in major rivers is reused
several times before it reaches the sea.
Since most of the costs of pollution are borne by downstream users rather
than by those who generate the wastes, municipalities and industry have little
incentive to treat waste adequately before discharge. The result is that
the collection and treatment of waste lag behind water use. In 1962, about
20 million more people were served by municipal water supply than by
waste treatment systems. Much industrial waste is discharged without treatment, and between 1950 and 1960 the discharge of industrial organic waste
to streams increased by 30 percent.
The discharge of pollutants is concentrated in urban areas and is increasing as time passes. More effective regulations and enforcement will be
necessary to achieve cleaner streams and lakes. Another policy instrument
that may be of value is a system of fees for the discharge of effluent. Such
fees, if feasible, would confront polluters with the social costs of their
actions and would encourage them to reduce pollution.
Air pollution. Air pollution, like water pollution, results from excessive
discharge of wastes, often the result of incomplete combustion. Pollutants
are discharged into the air by industries, households, and municipalities.
The automobile is probably the largest single source of air pollution; California has adopted a law prohibiting the sale of cars without pollution control
devices, and other states are considering similar action.
Discharge of pollutants has increased rapidly with the growth of population and industry. More than half of all U.S. urban communities are
affected by air pollution. One-quarter of the population live in communities in which air pollution is a major problem.
Air pollution is at best a public nuisance, at worst a source of serious
damage to health and property. Although more research is needed, rela-
152
tively inexpensive methods are already available for the control of most
pollutants. As with water pollution, economic incentives are lacking. The
cost of air pollution is borne mainly by the community at large rather than
by those responsible for the pollution. It can be reduced by more effective
regulation or, for major polluters, by discharge fees.
Open spaces and outdoor recreation. Although people value open
spaces in urban areas, there is no market on which they can register these
preferences. It would not be feasible to create such a market because of the
difficulty of imputing or confining benefits from urban open spaces to
particular individuals. There is a strong temptation for hard pressed local
governments to maintain their tax base by abandoning open spaces to
developers, by routing new roads through parks rather than through developed areas, and by making inadequate additions to the available open
space as the population expands.
The amount of open space per person is small and probably declining in
the larger metropolitan areas. In addition, the provision of State and
county parks within driving distance of metropolitan areas is lagging behind
the growth of these areas, and most of our Federal recreational facilities
are remote from the major population centers.
But with incomes rising and leisure time increasing, the demand for
outdoor recreation is growing rapidly. Many city parks are now used
nearly to capacity, and visits to State parks have increased by 123 percent in the last decade. The Outdoor Recreation Resources Review
Commission projects a tripling of over-all demand for outdoor recreation
facilities by the year 2000.
Federal programs for urban areas
During the past thirty years, the Federal Government has been developing
programs of assistance—to individuals, to business, and to State and local
governments—that contribute to the improvement of the urban environment and to the alleviation of the social, developmental, and financial problems of urban areas. Among the most important of the existing programs
to improve the physical environment are aids to public housing, urban
renewal, highways, mass transit, waste treatment, airports, and hospitals.
The human problems of the city are approached through national programs
for education, health, welfare, and social insurance, and to combat
poverty.
These measures have made great contributions to the development of
urban life. But the rapid growth of metropolitan areas has compounded
or changed the nature of many of these problems and created new ones.
New knowledge—partly gained from the mistakes of the past—can
be brought to bear. It is now evident that new directions in Federal
policy are needed in these efforts.
Most important is Federal encouragement of area-wide metropolitan
planning, to assure the development of integrated systems of land use, of
153
transportation, water supply, sanitation, and pollution control. Some
Federal programs now require local coordination in the provision of physical facilities. But even if some area-wide coordination is achieved in individual functions such as transportation or sanitation, an effectively integrated pattern of development cannot emerge unless the several functions
are brought into a common focus. This can only be achieved if there is
some method of taking an area-wide, comprehensive point of view, which
brings together all levels of government and pertinent private organizations to evolve a metropolitan area plan.
Metropolitan area planning is no panacea. Each community has its
own preferences and problems, and its local government is best able to
discern them. Nor does metropolitan planning directly augment the resources available to meet the rapidly increasing needs. It is clear, however,
that fragmentation of legal jurisdictions has proceeded too far in many of
our metropolitan areas. The Federal Government has a responsibility to
promote planning to assure that public needs are met efficiently and that
the federally aided local public programs will, indeed, produce a more livable
and efficient urban environment.
Because the allocation of land to various purposes is so fundamental to
the future pattern of a metropolitan area, the Federal Government should
continue to give some help to promote better land use planning. While
decisions about land use will remain mainly a local matter, research and the
spreading of information to improve zoning techniques are desirable.
As the metropolis grows in area and density, it is particularly difficult to
preserve open spaces for recreational and aesthetic purposes. The Federal
Government already aids localities to acquire open lands, and this program
is a logical part of a greater emphasis on metropolitan planning.
One way of avoiding congestion in the metropolitan area is to bring homes,
community services, and jobs closer together in smaller and more self-contained communities. Federal aids to urban areas need to be adapted to this
promising new approach.
The Federal Government has a responsibility to reexamine and improve its existing programs. Urban renewal is rapidly transforming many
of the blighted downtown areas of our cities to new and more productive
uses, thereby helping to reverse the downward spiral of malfunction and
decay. However, despite an increase in the efforts to find adequate housing
for the persons displaced by the tearing down of slums, it is evident that
these efforts are still not wholly successful. Experience has shown that
much of the land made available through urban renewal in downtown
areas is drawn into commercial and high rent residential uses. The Government therefore must take further steps to augment the supply of low and
medium rent housing in the city. The recent emphasis in urban renewal
on rehabilitation of existing residential units should make a contribution to
this need; and the Federal sharing of costs of code enforcement begun last
year should help to stem the decline of gray areas.
154
The FHA and VA mortgage guarantee programs have greatly increased
the supply of middle-income houses and are among the main forces behind
the growth of suburbs. The public housing program has sought to
provide low-income housing, and in recent years housing assistance for
middle-income families has been a major program innovation. But we need
to test out more flexible methods of providing housing assistance for families
of different incomes, under which families are not forced to move out
of their homes when their incomes rise above a specified level.
The impact of governments on the private decisions which mainly determine the development of metropolitan areas is large. The value of land
in alternative uses depends on government decisions on zoning and transportation. The commuter's decision to use a particular transportation system depends on the cost he must pay. The extent of air and water
pollution depends on the willingness of governments to impose regulations.
Federal, State, and local methods of taxation help to determine the profitability of slums and of their rehabilitation.
As public policy seeks to improve the livability of metropolitan areas, it
must be keenly aware of its effects on private incentives and behavior. The
development of our metropolitan areas will always be primarily determined
by private actions. Wise government policies will promote private
efforts that improve the quality of urban life and will provide incentives which channel private decisions toward an efficient use of resources.
PROBLEMS AND UNMET NEEDS OF RURAL AREAS
Farming has traditionally been the primary, if not the exclusive, industry
of rural areas. Today, only a quarter of the rural population lives on farms.
Farming has become a shrinking source of employment opportunity for the
rural labor force. The industrial revolution in agriculture in recent decades
has raised gross output per man-hour on the farm to nearly 4 times what
it was in 1940. In the process, farming has been transformed from a way
of life into a business; farms have grown larger and declined in number.
Less than one in ten of the youth now on farms can expect to become
farmers. The decline in farm employment opportunity and the resulting
adjustment problem is intensified by economic growth itself. Inevitably,
as our national income grows, a smaller proportion is spent for the products
of agriculture.
Although other sources of employment—mainly in rural service industries—have expanded somewhat, they fail by a wide margin to compensate
for the heavy losses in agriculture. Stagnation in rural employment opportunities has occurred at a time when economic opportunity in urban centers
has been expanding. Response of rural people in this situation has frequently
been migration. The rate at which people have migrated from agriculture
is closely associated both with the rate at which over-all economic growth has
created job opportunities elsewhere and with changes in the productivity
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of agriculture that have reduced the number of farm jobs. Thus, there is an
economic push as well as a pull that operates upon the size of the ruralurban migration and alleviates or compounds the pressures of excess labor
supply on rural communities.
As the economic opportunity in agriculture for new labor market entrants has fallen in most rural communities, little has taken its place. The
economic vitality of many rural areas has declined and economic growth
has faltered. In some places, commuting to industrial jobs has filled the
void. But many communities have suffered major population losses. In
about half of the Nation's 3,081 counties the total population declined during the 1950's, and more than 90 percent of those losing population were
rural counties. Thus, at a time when the larger urban communities are
faced with the problems associated with rapid growth of population, many
rural communities are confronted with the dilemmas posed by rapid loss.
This loss has mainly been of young people, leaving behind an aging rural
population. A decline of a rural community's population by as little as 5-10
percent in a decade usually means that there has been a net outmigration
of more than 50 percent of the young adults.
The average rural community does not now do as well as the typical urban
community in providing education, health, and other necessary community
services. This deficiency is compounded in many communities which have
lost so many people that schools, churches, stores, and even local governments can no longer be adequately supported. As the economic base of
the community is impaired, the supply and, particularly, the quality of the
community's social services decline even further. The only way out of this
problem, short of a major new source of economic activity and employment,
is for such communities to search for and cooperate in the creation of
centralized institutions serving wider areas—such as has occurred in the consolidation of schools, and even county governments in some cases.
The problems of urban areas have their counterparts in small towns and
rural communities. Poverty, inequality of opportunity, and inadequate
health and educational facilities have an even higher incidence in rural than
in urban areas. These problems are essentially national in scope, and they
are presented in the following sections in their national framework.
EDUCATION
The education of our people is the most basic resource of our society.
Education equips man to think rationally and creatively in his quest for
knowledge, for beauty, and for the full life; it provides the basis for effective
political democracy; and it is the most important force behind economic
growth, by advancing technology and raising the productivity of workers.
This country has led the way in making education available to all.
It has the highest level of educational attainment and allocates almost 6
percent of its gross national product to direct expenditures on education.
In the last seven years, since the launching of the first sputnik, there has
been a great concern about both the quantity and the quality of American
education. Major efforts were made to strengthen education for science and
technology, including the National Defense Education Act of 1958. In
1963 and 1964, major Federal programs were enacted to aid higher education through grants and loans, to improve and expand facilities for the
sharply rising numbers of students about to reach college age, to support
teacher training and language study, and to strengthen vocational education.
Most recently, the drive for improvement has focused on meeting the
educational needs of disadvantaged groups, to equip them to escape from
poverty and to become full participants in our productive effort and
standard of living. The President has proposed a new program to help
education this year aimed primarily—though not exclusively—at this effort.
RETURNS TO EDUCATION
The impact of education on economic productivity, though long recognized, has recently come to be more widely appreciated. Expenditures
on education produce a wide and important array of direct and indirect
economic benefits to individuals and to society.
Evidence on the effects of education on productivity is mounting. Increases in the conventional inputs of labor and capital explain only about half
the growth of output in the economy over the past half-century. The rising
level of education appears to account for between one-quarter and one-half
of the otherwise unexplained growth of output. Despite the great expansion
of the better-educated population, the pattern of income differentials associated with education has remained substantially unchanged over the past
quarter-century. In 1963 the median income of male high school graduates
25 years of age and over was $6,000, compared with $5,153 for those with
1-3 years of high school and only $4,076 for elementary school graduates.
Moreover, the incidence of poverty is closely related to educational attainment—the chance that families headed by elementary school graduates
will be poor is over twice as great as for families headed by high school
graduates.
Other effects defy both easy cataloging and quantification. They include
the impact of education on research and the development of new products
and processes, and the economic efficiencies that result from general literacy
and substantial educational attainment.
The direct and indirect benefits to society exceed those to individuals
or specific communities. The operation of the market frequently makes
it impossible for the individual to capture all of the gains produced
by his work; the successful inventor, scientist, or artist creates benefits
to society not measured by their financial reward. And communities
which lose some of their better educated young people—as many rural communities are doing—are unable to reap the benefits of increased productivity which their investment in the education of those leaving makes pos757-981 0—65
11
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sible. The presence of these public benefits warrants a social investment in
education above and beyond what the single individual or his family or his
area might be prepared to spend, and argues that the Federal Government
should assist the efforts of States and localities.
Even when viewed in the narrow perspective of economic benefit alone, expenditures on education yield high rates of return. The rate of return to
society on its total expenditure for the public and private education of males
is estimated at more than 10 percent at both the high school and college
levels; this rate compares favorably with the return on other investment
opportunities in the economy.
AVAILABILITY OF EDUCATION
The quality and availability of education vary greatly. For example, in
1961-62 current expenditures per child in average daily school attendance
were $438 in the Great Lakes and Plains States, compared with $295 in
the Southeast. Differences in teachers' salaries alone cannot account for such
variations. Differences in fiscal resources are resulting in differences in
quality of education.
In 1964, about 40 percent of the total population over age 25 in the South
had completed high school; in the Nation as a whole, almost half of the
total population had a high school education. Nonwhite males over age 25
averaged 8.7 years of schooling, compared with 11.9 years for white males.
Although these differences are narrowing among the young, they are still
large. Even in the age group 25-29, only 6 percent of nonwhite males have
completed 4 or more years of college; the equivalent figure for white males is
18 percent. Moreover, the education available to Negroes has been inferior
in many cases.
Increasing the resources devoted to education will help to eliminate
the disparities in the amount and quality of education offered in different
sections of the Nation and to different segments of the population. In addition to making education available, it is necessary to insure that low family
incomes do not bar individuals from taking full advantage of these expanded
opportunities. Many individuals fail to develop their talents fully, often for
economic reasons. In 1960, one-third of the top 25 percent of youths did
not go on to college; 5 percent did not even finish high school. This is a
serious waste of talent.
The quality of our education must be continuously improved. Many
school systems are already adopting strengthened curricula, and demonstration and experimental programs are being evaluated. But increased
support is needed for innovation, adaptation, and the speedy dissemination
of new research.
THE PRESIDENT'S PROGRAM FOR EDUCATION
In his Education Message, the President has recommended a program
that will broaden the scope of the educational system, will make educational
opportunities more equal, and will raise the quality of education at all levels.
The major proposal for equalizing and expanding educational opportunity
is a $1 billion program to aid elementary and secondary schools to improve
the education of the poor. This program will supplement by 50 percent the
resources devoted to educating the children from families with incomes below
$2,000. It will contribute greatly to the resources of poor school districts—
as much as 30 percent beyond present expenditures in the very poorest areas
and 3-10 percent of total operating costs in the larger cities. A program of
preschool training under the Community Action Program of the Office of
Economic Opportunity will enable children from low-income families to take
better advantage of elementary and secondary education.
To increase the quality of education, the President has recommended the
establishment of a new program of grants for supplementary educational
centers to be set up by a consortium of schools and other agencies in a
community. They will provide special services—advanced science courses
and laboratories, remedial reading, television instruction, summer courses,
after school help, music and language training, and other types of aid—
for all of the participating schools, public and private. In addition, proposals have been made for strengthening educational research and
innovation, library resources, and State departments of education.
A new program will seek to identify, early in their high school career,
students of the greatest promise and the greatest need. It will provide
scholarships to encourage them to decide in favor of higher education in
order to develop their talents. Low-interest loans and an expanded Work
Study Program will help college students continue their studies.
The President has proposed a program for strengthening smaller and
less developed colleges through exchange arrangements with large universities. College libraries will be enriched by a grant program for the purchase of books, and universities through their extension services will be
encouraged to tackle problems of the city.
HEALTH
Medical knowledge and treatment have advanced rapidly over the past
several decades. Unfortunately, these gains have not been fully reflected
in the health of the population. New knowledge is not being disseminated
widely or quickly enough; trained manpower and special facilities needed
to translate new treatment techniques into medical practice remain inadequate; and many individuals are financially unable to take advantage of
even generally available health services. It was to these problems that the
President addressed his Health Message to Congress.
THE STATE OF OUR NATION'S HEALTH
Improvements in health in this century have been remarkable. Between
1900 and 1963, the death rate dropped from 17.2 to 9.8 per 1,000 population; as a consequence, life expectancy rose from 47 years to 70 years. At
159
the same time, there were substantial declines in morbidity as infectious
and parasitic diseases were eliminated by public health measures, new drugs,
and improved living standards. Despite these advances, life expectancy
in the United States is below that in several countries, and ten countries
have lower infant mortality rates.
Chronic diseases remain as the major causes of mortality and disability.
The recent Report of the President's Commission on Heart Disease, Cancer
and Stroke predicted that these three diseases alone will take almost I3/2
million American lives this*year. Wider use of available knowledge could
save the lives of approximately 150,000 cancer patients each year, and better
detection methods and more extensive use of surgical techniques could save
many others who suffer from heart disease and stroke. But elimination of
these diseases and a further lengthening of the average lifespan require
future breakthroughs in medical research.
This year, total funds supporting medical research will approximate $1.7
billion, over $1 billion of which comes from- Federal sources. Important
new discoveries have emerged from this unparalleled research effort. With
the development of vaccines, for example, polio has been virtually eliminated
in the past decade. The discovery of new antibiotics has reduced both mortality and the amount of illness. And medical research efforts have produced improved methods of disease detection and better surgical techniques.
For example, children with acute leukemia now have a much longer life
expectancy as a result of federally supported and conducted research.
To reap the full benefit of this scientific progress, new knowledge must
be disseminated widely and quickly among practicing health personnel. The
latest medical equipment, much of it complex and expensive, must be available throughout the country. And the public must have both the economic means and the understanding to seek and obtain early diagnosis and
treatment. The failure to achieve these goals has been particularly unfortunate for children, the poor, and the elderly.
Better health services for children can contribute substantially to their
future physical and economic well-being. Too many children—and especially poor children—suffer from chronic ailments or are handicapped,
mentally retarded, or emotionally disturbed. The 15 million children of lowincome families receive far less medical care than they require. They visit
physicians only half as often as children from other families; more than
half between the ages of 5 and 14 have never been to a dentist; and though
they are hospitalized less, the duration of their stay averages twice that of
children from higher-income families. Problems of child health frequently
stem from inadequate maternal care which gives rise to birth defects, acute
and chronic illnesses, and lasting disabilities.
Older persons, who tend to have lower incomes, larger medical costs, and
a higher incidence of major and catastrophic illnesses, probably suffer most
from insufficient health care. In 1962 only half of the elderly had any
health insurance coverage, much of it inadequate. Median medical care
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costs for aged couples were $240; for a quarter of them, costs exceeded
$500. Since their median income was $2,875, the average aged couple
spent almost 10 percent of its already low income on medical care.
HEALTH PROGRAMS
To speed the application of existing knowledge and the development of
new knowledge of diseases and their treatment, the President has proposed
establishing a network of regional medical complexes. Combining medical research, medical education, and medical care, these centers will make
available the best in diagnosis and treatment to people throughout the
country. Additional support for basic research also has been proposed.
Enactment of hospital insurance for the aged under Social Security,
financed by a separate trust fund, will improve health services for the
elderly by helping to pay for inpatient hospital care, extended nursing home
care, home health visits, and outpatient diagnostic services. The recommended program for child health, and more adequate public assistance
grants for the medical expenses, of needy children, will make an important
contribution toward breaking the circle of poverty. Finally, the President
has recommended expansion of programs in the field of mental health and
mental retardation.
The extension of adequate health care to the entire population will require the growth of our health facilities and personnel. The Hill-Burton
Act of 1946 has greatly aided hospital construction, and the 1964 amendments will provide further stimulus to the construction and modernization
of medical and public health centers. The Nurses Training Act of 1964
and the Health Professions Educational Assistance Act of 1963 will augment the supply of medical manpower. In addition, the President has
recommended direct financial assistance to medical and dental schools to
speed the flow of trained manpower to meet the rising demand for health
services.
POVERTY
Too many of our citizens neither share adequately in the benefits of our
economic progress nor contribute effectively to its creation. America's
renewed focus on poverty last year called attention to the fact that 35
million Americans—one-fifth of the population—still lived in poverty.
When the President declared war against poverty in his State of the Union
Message a year ago, the conscience of the American people was stirred.
Widening participation in prosperity will not be accomplished easily. It
calls for a combination of public and private policies which, while reflecting society's compassion and concern, will attack the root causes of poverty.
It requires assisting all citizens who need help in developing their full
potential. It requires strengthening our protections against the economic
hazards inherent in modern society. And it requires improving our assist-
161
ance to those who, because of age, disability, or adversity, are unable to
provide for themselves.
Last year, the Council's Annual Report set forth a preliminary analysis
of the structure of poverty, focusing on the economic characteristics of the
poor and the causes of their poverty. Since then additional information
has become available, shedding more light on the process by which family
poverty may arise, persist, or disappear.
THE RECORD OF PROGRESS AGAINST POVERTY
The percentage of American families with incomes (in 1962 prices)
below $3,000 fell from 32 percent in 1947 to 20 percent in 1962 and to 19
percent in 1963. Experience indicates that in periods of strong economic
expansion the incidence of poverty declines. Between 1947 and 1962 the
number of poor families fell from 11.9 million to 9.3 million; in 1963 alone
it dropped an additional 300,000, and a further reduction probably occurred
last year. The composition of this group of families showed little change
from 1962 to 1963. The incidence of poverty remained highest among
farm families, nonwhite families, and those headed by females, and among
the elderly, the least educated, and those unable to work. The median
money income of poor families has remained close to $1,800 since 1958.
MEASURES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF POVERTY
In its 1964 Annual Report, the Council proposed an income below $3,000
as a test of family poverty. It recognized that a determination of poverty
status cannot be exact, either conceptually or in practice, for "there is no
precise way to measure the number of families who do not have the
resources to provide minimum satisfaction of their own particular needs."
However, the attack on poverty requires a quantitative perspective on the
problem. Therefore, the Council concluded that the $3,000 income limit
"provides a valid benchmark for assessing the dimensions of the task of
eliminating poverty, setting the broad goals of policy, and measuring our
past and future progress toward their achievement."
In the past year, additional research has been devoted to measuring the
character and extent of poverty, taking into account a broader range of
considerations than annual income alone. This will permit the development of more comprehensive measures of the problem.
Differences in family composition
The $3,000 poverty line was intended to reflect the minimum current
income needs of a typical family—typical with respect to size, age of members, and a variety of other characteristics. Recognizing that few families
are typical, the Social Security Administration has now estimated the income
needed to achieve comparable minimum standards of consumption by
families of various size and age composition in both rural and urban areas.
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The minimum income needs of an urban family of six, for example, will
normally differ from those of an elderly rural couple.
Under these revised estimates, roughly the same total number of persons
are classified poor as under the simpler $3,000 family income test, but the
composition of the poverty group is somewhat different. The number of
poor families is smaller; the number of adults is reduced, especially among
the aged and those who do not work. The number of large families classified as poor increases, however; and, most important, the estimated number
of children in poverty rises by more than one-third, from 11 million to 15
million. This means that one-fourth of the Nation's children live in families
that are poor. These findings underscore the importance of helping young
people escape from poverty. This pressing objective, stressed in last years
Annual Report, is emphasized in the Economic Opportunity Act and in the
President's new proposals for education and health care of children.
Asset ownership
A family's ability to maintain an adequate standard of living depends on
its accumulation of assets and liabilities as well as current income. A family may be able to sustain its consumption during an occasional year of low
income by drawing down savings, borrowing on assets, and postponing the
replacement of durable goods. Thus the measurement of poverty is improved by distinguishing temporary from chronic inadequacy of income,
and considering the asset holdings of low-income families. However, in
practice, few low-income families can long maintain satisfactory consumption levels by drawing down their assets. Average (median) net asset
holdings of poor families amounted to only $2,760 at the end of 1962.
The bulk of these assets consisted of equity in a home and thus could not be
easily converted into consumption. Even if a typical poor family were to
draw down its assets to supplement current income in order to maintain
consumption at the rate of $3,000 a year, these assets would be entirely
exhausted within two to three years.
Older families with incomes of less than $3,000 generally possess more
assets than do younger families with low incomes. Many of the former are
retired and are using their savings to meet living costs. A composite measure of poverty based upon income and asset criteria would exclude some
older families now classified as poor under the income test alone.
Income variability and the persistence of poverty
The extent of chronic poverty is reflected by a measure of persistence—
the percentage of poor families in any given year who remain poor in succeeding years. A study of incomes of the same families in two successive
years shows that approximately 70 percent with incomes below $3,000 in one
year have similarly low incomes in the following year. This suggests that
the poor include a largely unchanging group of families. Persistence of
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poverty is greatest among families headed by females, the less educated, nonwhites, and the aged, as shown in Table 19.
TABLE 19.—Persistence of poverty, by selected family characteristics, 1962-63
Selected characteristic
Persistence
of poverty
All families
Age of head:
14-24 years..
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
65 years and over
Work experience of head:
Worked
At full-time jobs
At full-year jobs »
At part-time jobs
Did not work
62
55
53
63
71
._
60
53
51
79
83
Education of head:
Less than 8 years
8 years
9-11 years
12 years
13-15 years
16 years or more
79
72
64
53
54
40
Type of family:
Husband-wife
Wife in paid labor force
Wife not in paid labor force
Other male head
Female head
48
73
61
76
Color of head:
White
Nonwhite
67
76
» Worked 50-52 weeks.
NOTE.—Data relate to families and exclude unrelated individuals. Poverty is defined to include all families with total money income of less than $3,000; these are also referred to as poor families. Persistence of
poverty is measured by the percent of poor families in 1962 that are also poor in 1963.
Data based on sample of families living at same address as year earlier; movers, whose characteristics
could differ from nonmovers, are excluded. In addition, implied changes based on two interviews a year
apart for the same family are particularly affected by response errors.
Data are not entirely comparable to those shown in Table 20. See note to that Table.
Source: Department of Commerce.
Temporary poverty is likely to arise from unemployment, illness, or other
disability, and, for the self-employed, from the hazards of small business.
Movement out of poverty is related to changing levels of economic activity.
The process by which over-all poverty is reduced from one year to the
next involves a number of divergent influences. Some families become
poor, a slightly larger number become better off, but the great majority
simply remain poor. Of the 9.3 million poor families in 1962, 0.6 million
were dissolved in 1963, and another 1.8 million—only 19 percent of the
total—moved to a higher income status. Meanwhile 6.9 million remained
poor (Table 20) and 1.7 million other families fell into the low-income
group.
Of those families leaving poverty in 1963, slightly over two-fifths
secured incomes between $3,000 and $4,000, one-fifth moved into the $4,000
to $5,000 range, and the remaining two-fifths reached or surpassed $5,000.
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TABLE 20.—Changes in poverty, 1962-63
Estmated
Poverty status of family
(millions)
Poor families in 1962
9.3
Less: Families no longer poor in 1963
Poor families dissolved in 1963
1.8
Equals: Families poor in 1962 and 1963....
Plus: Families who became poor in 1963..
Newly formed poor families in 1963.
1.7
.4
Equals: Poor families in 1963 *
9.0
1
Families with total money income of less than $3,000 (1962 prices).
NOTE.—Data relate to families and exclude unrelated individuals. Poor families are denned as all
families with total money income of less than $3,000.
This table is based on total number of poor families that moved or were dissolved. The persistence
rate—74 percent—derived from this table is somewhat higher than that in Table 19.
Source: Council of Economic Advisers.
Those families whose incomes rose from less than $3,000 to $5,000 or
more undoubtedly included a large number of families where bread winners
returned to full-time work or a new earner found a job. On the
other hand, many of those who rose from poverty status, particularly those
in the $3,000 to $4,000 bracket in 1963, probably did so only temporarily.
The statistics suggesting that about 20 percent of the poverty-stricken
families in any given year are no longer poor in the following year certainly
overstate the degree of real improvement in the income position of this
group. They fail to reveal the extent to which many of these families
hover about the $3,000 income line. An increase in income from $2,900
to $3,100 hardly constitutes an escape from poverty and, furthermore, may
be quickly reversed. Therefore, some measure of poverty covering more
than a one-year period is more appropriate and useful in identifying the
incidence of chronic poverty. A poverty criterion based on a two-year
income average of $3,000 yields nearly as many low-income families as
is indicated by the one-year measure.
Employment status
The analysis of poverty in last year's Annual Report emphasized the importance of economic expansion and rising aggregate employment in reducing the number of poor families. But it also made clear that many of the
poor—because their family heads are not in the labor force—do not necessarily benefit from general economic prosperity. Data on work experience
in 1963, shown in Table 21, provide further indications of the relationship
between unemployment and poverty.
Some 30 percent of families with incomes below $3,000 were headed by
persons who held jobs (mostly full-time) throughout the year. An additional 14 percent were headed by persons in the labor force during only
part of the year but who were never counted as unemployed because they
moved into or out of the labor force. The heads of 16 percent of -poor
TABLE 21.—Distribution of all and poor families, by work experience of family head,
1963
Work experience of head
Percent distribution
TotalIn labor force during year:
Employed all year
Employed part of year:
Not unemployed
Unemployed part of year 1
Not in labor force during year
1
Includes small percent not employed at all during year.
NOTE.—Data relate to families and exclude unrelated individuals. Poor families are denned as all families
with total money income of less than $3,000 (1962 prices).
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.
families experienced unemployment during 1963. The incidence of poverty
was particularly high among those unemployed for long periods. A more
prosperous economy and stronger job markets would have aided the incomes
of all these groups, but particularly the last.
The largest group of poor families—39 percent of the total—was headed
by persons completely out of the labor force during 1963. A few of these
family heads, of course, are among "the hidden unemployed"—those
employable workers who had withdrawn from or failed to enter the labor
force because of discouragement about job opportunities. However, many
more of them were retired, disabled, or were women with child-rearing
responsibilities.
THE ATTACK ON POVERTY
Passage of the Economic Opportunity Act of 1964 marked the opening
of an enlarged attack on inadequate incomes in an economy of relative
abundance. The main thrust of this effort is directed at the roots of
poverty—particularly at helping the children of the poor. The programs
of the Office of Economic Opportunity will provide a community-wide focus
for anti-poverty efforts by offering education, training, and work experience
to help young people escape from poverty. They augment other Government programs for education, training, health, and welfare services which
deal less specifically with poverty.
Federal funds have begun to flow in support of Community Action Programs across the Nation. These Programs, planned, operated, and coordinated at the local level, will make services needed to break out of poverty
available to the poor. The services can range from preschool preparation
to counseling to establishing neighborhood centers. It is anticipated that
Programs will be approved in approximately 300 communities this year.
Community Action Programs, mobilizing local public and private leadership, are an important new social institution and a major weapon in the
war on urban poverty.
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The Neighborhood Youth Corps-Work Training Program will provide
useful work experience opportunities for unemployed young men and women
in State and local governments and nonprofit organizations. By the end
of June, approximately 175,000 young men and women will have entered
this Program. The Job Corps will offer education and vocational training—
along with some work experience—in conservation camps and residential
training centers to approximately 25,000 young people by this June. The
goal of the Work Study Program is to provide part-time employment this
year to nearly 100,000 low-income college students who need financial assistance to enter upon or continue their college educations. And the Work
Experience Program will provide constructive work experience and training
for close to 90,000 unemployed fathers and other needy persons.
The Federal budget for fiscal year 1966 provides $1.5 billion—almost
twice the 1965 amount—in new obligational authority to the Office of Economic Opportunity to carry out these Programs.
Although several million people will be assisted by Community Action
Programs this year, and over a half million more will participate directly in
education, work, and training programs, this is only the beginning of the
Nation's long-range war on poverty. Continuing effort, carried out with
skill and imagination, will be required to eliminate poverty in the United
States.
EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY
Passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 marked the beginning of a
new era of concern for equality of opportunity. This historic civil rights
legislation outlaws a wide variety of discriminatory practices which have
been applied against many groups, but particularly against Negroes.
The gains to be derived from new programs in the employment, urban,
education, health, and poverty areas will be fully shared only if we continue
breaking down the barrier of discrimination, whether because of race,
creed, age, or sex.
The Civil Rights Act is likely to extend the horizons and motivations of
nonwhite youth, as it opens up new employment opportunities. There will
be greater incentive to stay in school and to obtain training. Incomes will
rise and the circle of poverty in which many Negroes are trapped will be
broken.
Discrimination against minorities—Negroes, Puerto Ricans, SpanishAmericans, Indians, and others—has significant economic and social costs.
It is estimated that society loses up to $20 billion per year of potential production as a result of employment discrimination and poorer educational
opportunities for nonwhites. They earn about 30 percent less than whites—
even when they have received similar amounts (but often lower quality)
of schooling and are in the same occupations. Not surprisingly, the
incidence of poverty is much higher for nonwhites—40 percent, as against
16 percent for the white population.
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The extent to which nonwhites fail to share in the economic benefits of
a prosperous society—in housing, education, health, employment, and
income—is revealed in Table 22. Such comparisons would be even
more glaring were it not for recent efforts to break the barriers of job discrimination. The consequences of discrimination show up in low-income
housing programs, in large welfare payments, and in a variety of special
and remedial programs. These outlays attempt to make up for what society
has failed to prevent.
TABLE 22.—Selected measures of discrimination and inequality
of opportunity, by race
Characteristic
White
Housing, 1960:
Percent of families in substandard housing
Education, 1964:
Median years of school completed, 25 years of age and over_
Percent completed high school, 20-24 years of age___
Health, 1963:
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)
Nonwhite
41.6
8.9
53
64
42
Employment, 1964 (percent of total civilian employment): *
Professional-managerial occupations
Craftsmen and foremen occupations
Median income of males, 1963:
Some or completed college
High school graduates.
_
9.4
6.9
$4,070
$3,821
i Data relate to March 1964.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
Efforts to eliminate discrimination in employment were heightened by
the establishment in 1961 of the President's Committee on Equal Employment Opportunities. Discrimination in Federal employment and in the
performance of Federal contracts has been prohibited. Government
agencies, including the armed services, have intensified their efforts to
widen job opportunities for Negroes.
The voluntary cooperation of businesses and unions has been enlisted to
open both jobs and union membership to nonwhites. One of the most
critical remaining barriers to the employment prospects of nonwhites is the
lack of sufficient openings in apprenticeship programs. Until younger
Negroes can acquire the skills necessary to compete in today's labor market,
equality of opportunity will not be realized.
Discrimination is not limited to race. It is also applied against women
and older citizens. Implementation of the Equal Pay Act which prohibits
payments of differential wages to women when they are performing jobs
similar to those performed by men promises to improve the earning power of
American women. Widespread discrimination against the hiring of older
people continues, though efforts have been made to offset this by retraining
and increased placement activities for older workers.
168
PERSPECTIVES
The problems outlined above have long been with us. The programs
that have been developed and the steps now proposed will not solve them
overnight. But the steps we take now will help to determine the state of
our society in the next generation and beyond.
By the year 2000, our population will exceed 300 million, four-fifths of
them living in urban areas. If the average productivity gains until the year
2000 no more than match those of the last seventeen years, output per
man-hour will be 3 times as great as that today. If working hours and
labor force participation rates were to remain unchanged, average family
income would approximate $18,000 (in today's prices). Undoubtedly,
some part of these potential gains in income will instead be taken in the
form of greater leisure—through some combination of shorter hours, later
entry into the labor force, and earlier retirement. If the advance cf
productivity should speed up—as many project—gains in income or leisure
could be even greater.
To realize these gains fully, we will need public and private policies that
keep the economy operating at its full potential. We must mitigate and,
if possible, avoid recessions. We must maintain competitive markets that
spur innovation and adapt quickly to change. We must have an increasingly flexible labor force, equipped with the skills needed in a complex,
technical economy.
The steps we take during the next few years will help to determine the
quality of life in the year 2000.
The patterns of building and transportation that we create will determine the character of our cities. The parks and open spaces that we
provide will affect the way people spend their increased leisure time.
With growing population and further urbanization, problems of congestion and pollution—often considered as mere nuisances today—could
become obstacles to effective and tolerable city life even before 2000. But
imaginative solutions could make the cities of tomorrow not only far more
efficient but far more livable than the cities of today.
The vitality of our rural areas in 2000 will also be affected by the success
of our efforts to stem their decline and solve their problems in the coming
years.
Most important is the need to develop the potential of human beings.
The ability of adults fully to participate in—and benefit from—life in 2000
will depend on the investment we make in the children of today.
The educational attainment of the labor force will largely depend on
the quality of the education we provide in the next few years. The first
grader of 1965 will be the 41-year-old breadwinner of 2000. And the
teachers of that year's children are now starting school.
The improvements we make in the medical and public health services
169
available to today's youth will importantly affect death and disability rates
of the year 2000 and the physical and mental vigor of the population.
Investments are needed in the health and education of all children.
But particular effort is needed for those who have inherited the legacy of
poverty and discrimination. We have the means to break the bonds that
tie today's children to the poverty of their parents. With proper measures,
we could eliminate poverty in the next generation. More individuals
would be able to fill the good jobs that advancing technology will offer.
With more education, better health, greater incentives, and equality of
opportunity, the number of disadvantaged will decline. And the Nation's
greatly enlarged resources will permit the diminished numbers of the disadvantaged to share more fully in the prosperity of the society.
170
Appendix A
REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF
THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1964
171
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
DECEMBER 31,1964.
The PRESIDENT.
SIR : The Council of Economic Advisers submits this report on its activities during the calendar year 1964 in accordance with the requirements of
Congress, as set forth in section 4 (d) of the Employment Act of 1946.
Respectfully,
GARDNER
AGKLEY,
OTTO ECKSTEIN
ARTHUR M. O K U N
757-981 O—65
12
173
Chairman
Report to the President on the Activities of the
Council of Economic Advisers During 1964
COUNCIL MEMBERSHIP
Gardner Ackley, a member of the Council since August 1962, became its
Chairman on November 16, replacing Walter W. Heller, who had been
Chairman since January 1961. Mr. Ackley is on leave from the University
of Michigan, where he is Professor of Economics. Mr. Heller has returned
to the University of Minnesota as Professor of Economics but remains a
consultant to the Council.
Two new members joined the Council in 1964. Otto Eckstein, Professor
of Economics at Harvard University, replaced John P. Lewis on September 2. Mr. Lewis is now Director of the Mission to India of the U.S.
Agency for International Development (AID). Arthur M. Okun, on leave
from his post as Professor of Economics at Yale University, was sworn in as
a member on November 16.
Following is a list of all past Council members and their dates of service:
Name
Edwin G. Nourse
Leon H. Keyserling
John D. Clark
Roy Blough
Robert C. Turner
Arthur F. Burns...
NeilH. Jacoby
Walter W. Stewart
Joseph S. Davis
Raymond J. Saulnier__ __
Paul W. McCracken
Karl Brandt
Henry C. Wallich
James Tobin
Kermit Gordon
Walter W. Heller
John P. Lewis
Position
Chairman
Vice Chairman
Acting Chairman
Chairman
_ __
Member
Vice Chairman
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Chairman
Member
_
Oath of office date
August 9, 1946
August 9, 1946
November 2, 1949
May 10,1950
August 9, 1946
May 10, 1950
June 29, 1950
September 8, 1952
March 19, 1953
September 15, 1953
December 2, 1953..
May 2, 1955
April 4, 1955
December 3, 1956
December 3, 1956
November 1, 1958
May 7, 1959
January 29, 1961
January 29, 1961
January 29. 1961
May 17, 1963
Separation date
November 1,1949.
January 20, 1953.
February 11, 1953.
August 20, 1952.
January 20, 1953.
December 1, 1956.
February 9, 1955.
. April 29, 1955.
October 31, 1958.
January 20,1961.
January 31, 1959.
January 20, 1961.
January 20, 1961.
July 31, 1962.
December 27, 1962.
November 15, 1964.
August 31, 1964.
COUNCIL STAFF
At the end of 1964, the Council members were assisted by a professional
staff of 15: Jarvis M. Babcock, James T. Bonnen, W. Lee Hansen, Frances
M. James, Susan J. Lepper, David W. Lusher, Edwin S. Mills, Theodore K.
Osgood, Melvin Rothbaum, Fredric Q. Raines, Frank W. Schiff, Lester D.
Taylor, Lester C. Thurow, Joseph J. Walka, and Ramsay Wood.
The Council also makes frequent use, as consultants, of leading members
of the economics profession. The following served the Council in this capacity during 1964: William G. Bowen, David B. Brooks, Benjamin Chinitz,
Richard N. Cooper, James Duesenberry, Rashi Fein, Seymour E. Harris,
Myron L. Joseph, Saul Klaman, Robert J. Lampman, Harold M. Levinson,
John V. Eintner, Jr., Michael C. Lovell, Theodore Morgan, Richard A.
Musgrave, Joseph A. Pechman, George L. Perry, Lee E. Preston, Jr., Paul
A. Samuelson, Warren Smith, Daniel B. Suits, Charles A. Taff, James
Tobin, Robert C. Turner, Murray L. Weidenbaum, and Burton A. Weisbrod.
Every year a number of staff members who have joined the Council on a
temporary basis return to posts in private life or in government. Those leaving the Council in 1964 were W. H. Locke Anderson, Richard M. Bailey,
Eugene A. Birnbaum, William M. Capron, Myron L. Joseph, Edward D.
Kalachek, Marshall A. Kaplan, Timothy W. McGuire, Robert Solomon,
Penelope H. Thunberg, and Burton A. Weisbrod.
Each summer, for the past four years, the Council has conducted a student
intern program. Those selected in 1964 were Charles W. Bischoff, John
E. Koehler, William D. Nordhaus, Stuart O. Schweitzer, and Frank A.
Sloan.
In addition, under an arrangement with the Great Lakes College Association, a group of 12 liberal arts colleges, the Council in 1964 had a summer
faculty intern, Carl T. Brehm, Jr., Associate Professor of Economics at
Kenyon College.
COUNCIL ACTIVITIES
Under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council is responsible for
analyzing and interpreting current and prospective economic developments
and trends and for developing and recommending economic policies that
will promote the goals of "maximum employment, production, and purchasing power." This charge, and the increased responsibilities that have been
assigned to it in recent years by the President, require the Council to consider a wide range of policy problems and areas. As a consequence, the
Council consults and works closely with other members of the Executive
Office and the White House staff and with numerous Government departments and agencies in analyzing domestic and international economic issues
and in formulating appropriate recommendations.
Participation in Inter agency Activities
The Council discharges most of its advisory duties through informal
consultations with other Government agencies; however, it also participates
formally in a number of interagency activities:
1. The Chairman regularly attends meetings of the Cabinet, where he
frequently briefs the President and Cabinet members on the current
economic situation.
176
2. He is Chairman of the Cabinet Committee on Economic Growth.
3. He is a member of the Cabinet Committee on the Balance of
Payments.
4. He is Vice-Chairman of the Interdepartmental Energy Study, undertaken by a group of nine agencies to study the development and use of our
total energy resources, in order to help to determine the most effective
allocation of research and development efforts.
5. He is a member of the Economic Opportunity Council, an interagency
group established by the Economic Opportunity Act of 1964. This Council consults with, and advises, the Director of the Office of Economic Opportunity in carrying out his functions, including the coordination of antipoverty efforts by all segments of the Federal Government.
6. He is a member of a Federal interagency committee to advise and
maintain liaison with the newly appointed National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress.
7. He is a member of the Interagency Committee on Corporate Pension
Funds and Other Private Retirement and Welfare Programs, which has
recently completed its report to the President.
8. He represents the Council at meetings of the Interagency Committee
on Export Expansion.
9. He is an observer on the Trade Expansion Act Advisory Committee.
10. The Secretary of the Treasury, the Director of the Bureau of the
Budget, and the Chairman of the Council form a coordinating committee
on economic, budgetary, and revenue developments and forecasts; this
committee reports its findings to the President.
11. The Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System joins the above officials and their associates to form an advisory
group which meets periodically with the President to discuss domestic
and international monetary matters.
12. Mr. Ackley continues to serve as Chairman of the Interagency Committee on the Economic Impact of Defense and Disarmament, which also
includes representatives of the Departments of Defense, Commerce, and
Labor, and of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, the Atomic Energy Commission, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the
General Services Administration, the Small Business Administration, the
Bureau of the Budget, the Office of Emergency Planning, and the Office of
Science and Technology.
13. Mr. Eckstein serves as Chairman of an interagency committee which
includes representatives of the Departments of Labor and Commerce and
the Bureau of the Budget and is responsible for developing and supervising
an integrated program of studies and projections of U.S. economic growth.
14. Mr. Eckstein served as Chairman of the Study of the Federal Helium
Program conducted by the Council with the cooperation of the Department
177
of the Interior, the Office of Science and Technology, and the Bureau of the
Budget.
15. Mr. Okun serves as a member of the Interagency Committee on
Transportation Mergers, which advises the President concerning appropriate Government policies with respect to merger proposals submitted to Federal regulatory agencies by transportation companies.
16. Mr. Okun serves as a member of the President's Committee on Consumer Interests, established when the President appointed a Special Assistant
for Consumer Affairs in 1963.
17. Mr. Okun serves as Chairman of the Advisory Committee on Domestic Federal Credit Programs.
18. Members or staff of the Council served as members or observers
on a number of other interagency committees dealing with a wide range
of domestic or international economic matters:
a. President's Committee on Manpower;
b. Federal Interagency Committee on Education;
c. Committee on Labor Supply, Employment, and Unemployment
Statistics;
d. Research Committee on Seasonal Adjustment;
e. Interdepartmental Advisory Panel on the National Center for
Health Statistics;
f. Natural Resources Committee of the Federal Council for Science
and Technology;
g. Interdepartmental Staff Group of the Rural Development Committee ;
h. Army-Interior Advisory Board on Passamaquoddy and Upper
St. John River;
i. Economic Stabilization Task Force of the Federal Reconstruction
and Development Commission for Alaska;
j . Trade Executive Committee;
k. Trade Staff Committee;
1. Trade Information Committee;
m. Committee on Export Financing of the Interagency Committee
on Export Expansion;
n. Interagency Committee on Foreign Trade Statistics;
o. National Advisory Council on International Monetary and
Financial Problems; and
p. Balance-of-Payments Information Committee.
19. The Council continued its work with the President's Advisory Committee on Labor-Management Policy, participating actively in the development of three seminars on Private Adjustments to Automation and Technological Change.
20. The Council participated with the Bureau of the Budget and members of the White House staff in reviewing measures proposed for inclusion
in the President's 1965 legislative program, and provided support for some
of the President's Task Forces helping to develop the program.
Committee on the Economic Impact of Defense and Disarmament
This Committee was formally established by President Johnson on
December 21, 1963. In his memorandum the President stated: "The Committee will be responsible for the review and coordination of activities in the
various departments and agencies designed to improve our understanding
of the economic impact of defense expenditures and of changes either in
the composition or in the total level of such expenditures."
Early in 1964, the Committee established three working groups to study
(1) existing machinery for facilitating adjustments to defense changes, (2)
possibilities and policies for defense conversion, and (3) tax and expenditure adjustments to major defense changes. A fourth working group was
appointed later in the year, to study coordination of research and statistics.
A staff member represents the Council on each of these working groups.
Mr. Murray Weidenbaum, on leave from the Stanford Research Institute
and now at Washington University, St. Louis, served the Committee as
Executive Secretary from June through October 1964. Mr. Guy Black
will become Executive Secretary in February 1965.
The Committee is currently completing preparation of its first report to
the President. This report is designed to accomplish four major purposes:
(1) to provide information on the economic impact of changing defense
programs—whether resulting from an over-all reduction in military expenditures or merely from changes in the composition of a relatively stable
defense budget; (2) to describe existing policies and programs to aid employees, companies, and communities in adjusting to shifts in defense spending; (3) to suggest and analyze additional policies and programs which
may be needed; and (4) to help to stimulate thinking about the opportunities which may emerge as defense resources are released.
International Economic Organizations
As the free world's economies have become increasingly interdependent,
international considerations have been of growing importance in the formulation of U.S. economic policies. To exchange views with foreign officials,
to keep abreast of conditions in other countries, and to obtain the necessary
cooperation in economic matters, the Council participates in several international activities:
1. Mr. Heller was a member of the U.S. delegation to:
a. The third annual meeting of the Cabinet-level United StatesJapan Committee on Trade and Economic Affairs, held in Tokyo,
January 25-29;
b. The ninth annual meeting of a similar United States-Canada
Cabinet-level Committee, held in Ottawa, April 29-30.
179
2. Mr. Ackley was a member of the U.S. delegation to the Annual Meeting in Tokyo, during September, of the International Monetary Fund and
the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and
its affiliates.
3. Mr. Okun served as Chairman of the U.S. delegation to the third
meeting of Senior Economic Advisers to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe in Geneva, November 2-6.
4. The Council participated actively in the work of the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) :
a. The Chairman continued to serve as Chairman of the U.S.
delegation to meetings of the Economic Policy Committee of the
OECD.
b. Mr. Ackley and Messrs. Robert Solomon and Frank SchifT of
the Council staff were, at various times, members of the U.S.
delegation to the Committee's Working Party on Balance-ofPayments Equilibrium.
c. Mr. Lewis, and later Mr. Eckstein, was Chairman of the U.S.
delegation to the Committee's Working Party on Costs of Production and Prices.
d. Mr. Ackley, and later Mr. David Lusher of the staff, served as
Chairman of the U.S. delegation to the Committee's Working
Party on Policies for the Promotion of Economic Growth.
e. Mr. Lusher was the U.S. representative to the Committee's
Working Group on short-term forecasts and a member of the
U.S. delegation for the review of the U.S. economy carried on
annually by the Economic Development and Review Committee
of the OECD.
f. Mr. Eckstein was a member of the U.S. delegation to the meeting
of the Ministerial Council.
g. Mr. Joseph of the staff was a member of the U.S. delegation to the
Manpower and Social Affairs Committee.
h. At the request of the OECD Secretariat, Mr. William Capron
of the staff served as an expert adviser to the Scientific Affairs
Directorate.
CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY
In addition to its testimony before Appropriations Committees in support of its own budget request, the Council appeared before Congressional
Committees as follows during 1964:
1. On January 23, Mr. Heller, accompanied by Mr. Ackley and Mr.
Lewis, opened testimony before the Joint Economic Committee on the
1964 Economic Report of the President.
180
2. On March 17, Mr. Heller testified before the House Committee on
Education and Labor in support of the Economic Opportunity Act of
1964.
3. On June 22, Mr. Ackley testified before the Senate Commerce Committee on a bill to establish a National Conversion Commission.
NONGOVERNMENTAL MEETINGS AND ACTIVITIES
Informed public opinion is essential in understanding the complex
economic issues facing the country today, and the Council attempts to contribute to such public understanding. During 1964, the Council members
and staff spoke before a number of private and public organizations and
institutes, appeared on radio and television programs, and wrote articles
for popular and professional publications.
The Employment Act of 1946 explicitly provides for consultation with
"representatives of industry, agriculture, labor, consumers, State and local
governments, and other groups. . . ." The Council has frequent informal interchanges with such representatives and also meets from time
to time with four advisory groups:
1. The Liaison Committee of the Business Council, consisting in 1964 of
the following: Chairman of the Liaison Committee, Donald K. David, Vice
Chairman, Ford Foundation; Roger M. Blough, Chairman, United States
Steel Corporation; Paul C. Cabot, Chairman, State Street Investment Corporation; Joseph B. Hall, Chairman, Kroger Company; Frederick R. Kappel, Chairman, American Telephone and Telegraph Company; W. B. Murphy, President, Campbell Soup Company; and J. Ward Keener, President,
B. F. Goodrich Company;
2. The Economic Policy Committee of the AFL-CIO, including—in
addition to George Meany, President, and William F. Schnitzler, SecretaryTreasurer of the AFL-CIO—the following: Walter P. Reuther, Chairman;
James B. Carey; David Dubinsky; George Harrison; A. J. Hayes; Joseph
Keenan; O. A. Knight; David J. McDonald; Paul L. Phillips; Emil Rieve;
Paul Hall; Peter T. Shoemann; and James Suffridge;
3. The AFL-CIO economists and research directors;
4. The Conference of Business Economists, chaired in 1964 by Ragnar D.
Naess of Naess and Thomas.
PUBLICATIONS
The Economic Report of the President, together with The Annual Report
of the Council of Economic Advisers, was transmitted to the Congress in
January 1964. The usual distribution of copies of the Report was made to
members of the Congress, government officials, the press, and depository
libraries. The Superintendent of Documents sold an additional 49,412
copies to the public, a 38-percent increase over the previous record sale of
35,784 copies of the 1963 Report.
The monthly Economic Indicators, an important compilation of current
economic statistics, has been prepared since 1948 at the Council under the
direction of Miss Frances M. James, and is published by the Joint Economic
Committee of the Congress. Under authority of a Joint Resolution of the
Congress, copies are furnished to Members of the Congress and to depository
libraries. The Superintendent of Documents sells more than 8,000 copies
a month to the public.
APPROPRIATIONS
The Council received an appropriation of $645,000 for the fiscal year
1965, and contemplates a supplemental appropriation to cover increased
costs resulting from the Federal Employees Salary Act of 1964. The
Council's request for 1966 provides for a minor increase in the Council's
staff, in addition to further necessary adjustments resulting from the
Salary Act.
182
Appendix B
STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME,
EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION
18s
CONTENTS
income or expenditure:
Page
Gross national product or expenditure, 1929-64
189
Gross national product or expenditure, in 1964 prices, 1929-64
190
Gross national product or expenditure, in 1954 prices, 1929-64
192
Gross national product by major type of product, 1947-64
194
Gross national product by major type of product, in 1954 prices,
1947-64
'
195
B-6. Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-64
196
B-7. Gross national product: Receipts and expenditures by major economic
groups, 1929-64
198
B-8. Gross private and government product, in current and 1964 prices,
1929-64
200
B-9. Personal consumption expenditures, 1929-64.
201
B-10. Gross private domestic investment, 1929-64
202
B-l 1. National income by type of income, 1929-64
203
B-12. Relation of gross national product and national income, 1929-64. . . .
204
B-l 3. Relation of national income and personal income, 1929-64
205
B-14. Sources of personal income, 1929-64
206
B-l 5. Disposition of personal income, 1929-64
208
B-l 6. Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures, in current and 1964 prices, 1929-64
209
B-l7. Number and money income of families and unrelated individuals,
1947-63
210
B-l 8. Financial saving by individuals, 1939-64
211
B-l9. Sources and uses of gross saving, 1929-64
212
Population, employment, wages, and productivity:
B-20. Population by age groups: Estimates, 1929-64, and projections, 1970-85 . 213
B-21. Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-64
214
B-22. Employment and unemployment, by sex and age, 1947-64
216
B-23. Selected measures of unemployment and part-time employment,
1948-64
217
B-24. Unemployed persons, by duration of unemployment, 1947-64
219
B-25. Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1940-64
218
B-26. Number of wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments,
1929-64
220
B-27. Average weekly hours of work in selected industries, 1929-64
222
B-28. Average gross hourly earnings in selected industries, 1929-64
223
B-29. Average gross weekly earnings in selected industries, 1929-64
224
B-30. Average weekly hours and hourly earnings, gross and excluding overtime, in manufacturing industries, 1939-64
225
B-31. Average weekly earnings, gross and spendable, in manufacturing
industries, in current and 1964 prices, 1939-64
226
B-32. Indexes of output per man-hour and related data, 1947-64
227
Production and business activity:
B-33. Industrial production indexes, industry groupings, 1947—64
228
B-34. Industrial production indexes, market groupings, 1947-64
230
B-35. Manufacturing capacity, output, and utilization rate, 1948-64. . . .
231
B-36. New construction activity, 1929-64
232
National
B-l.
B-2.
B-3.
B-4.
B-5.
185
Production and business activity—Continued
Page
B-37. New public construction activity, 1929-64
233
B-38. New housing starts and applications for financing, 1929-64
234
B-39. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1939, and 1945-65.
236
B-40. Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1947-64
237
B -41. Manufacturers' shipments and inventories, 1947-64
238
B-42. Manufacturers' new and unfilled orders, 1947-64
239
Prices:
B-43. Wholesale price indexes by major commodity groups, 1929-64
240
B-44. Wholesale price indexes, by stage of processing, 1947-64
242
B-45. Consumer price indexes, by major groups, 1929-64
244
B--46. Consumer price indexes, by special groups, 1935-64
245
Money supply, credit, and finance:
B-47. Money supply, 1947-64
246
B-48. Bank loans and investments, 1929-64
247
B-49. Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-64
248
B-50. Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 1929-64
250
B-51. Short- and intermediate term consumer credit outstanding, 1929-64..
251
B-52. Instalment credit extended and repaid, 1946-64
252
B-53. Mortgage debt outstanding, by type of property and of financing,
1939-64
253
B-54. Net public and private debt, 1929-64
254
Government finance:
B-55. U.S. Government debt, by kind of obligation, 1929-64
255
B-56. Estimated ownership of U.S. Government obligations, 1939-64 . . . . .
256
B-57. Average length and maturity distribution of marketable interest-bearing public debt, 1946-64
,
«
257
B-58. Federal administrative budget receipts by source and expenditures by
function, fiscal years 1939-66
258
B-59. Federal administrative budget receipts and expenditures and the public
debt, 1929-66
260
B-60. Government cash receipts from and payments to the public, 1946—66.
261
B—61. Government receipts and expenditures in the national income accounts, 1929-64
262
B-62. Federal Government receipts and expenditures in the national income
accounts, 1946-66
.
263
B-63. Reconciliation of Federal Government receipts and expenditures in
the administrative budget and the consolidated cash statement with
receipts and expenditures in the national income accounts, fiscal
years 1962-66
264
r
B-64. State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected fiscal
years, 1927-63
265
Corporate profits and finance:
B-65. Profits before and after taxes, all private corporations, 1929-64
266
B-66. Relation of profits before and after taxes to stockholders' equity and
to sales, private manufacturing corporations, by asset size class,
1958-64
267
B-67. Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales,
private manufacturing corporations, by industry group, 1958-64. . .
268
B-68. Sources and uses of corporate funds, 1953-64
270
B-69. Current assets and liabilities of United States corporations, 1939-64..
271
B-70. State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-64
272
B-71. Common stock prices, earnings, and yields and stock market credit,
1939-64
273
B-72. Business population and business failures, 1929-64
274
186
Agriculture:
Page
B-73. Income from agriculture, 1929-64
275
B-74. Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, and parity ratio,
1929-64
276
B-75. Farm production indexes, 1929-64
278
B-76. Selected measures of farm resources and inputs, 1929-64
279
B-77. Farm population, employment, and productivity, 1929-64
280
B-78. Comparative balance sheet of agriculture, 1929-65
281
International statistics:
B-79. United States balance of payment*, 1947-64
282
B-80. United States merchandise exports and imports, by economic class,
1929-64
. 284
B-81. United States merchandise exports and imports, by area, 1959-64. . 286
B -82. Major U.S. Government foreign assistance, by type and by area,
total postwar period and fiscal years 1960-64
287
B-83. Gold reserves and dollar holdirgs of foreign countries and international organizations. 1949, 1953, and 1959-64
288
B-84. U.S. gold stock and holdings of convertible foreign currencies by
U.S. monetary authorities, 1949-64
289
B-85. Price changes in international trade, 1956-64
290
Note.—Detail in these tables will not necessarily add to totals because of
rounding.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii are not included unless specifically noted.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current prices.
187
NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE
TABLE B—1.—Gross national product or expenditure, 1929-64
[Billions of dollars]
Gross private domestic investment*
Year or
quarter
1929
Total
gross
national
product
— 104.4
91.1
76.3
58.5
1933...
56.0
1934
65.0
1935
._ 72.5
1936
82.7
1937
_. 90.8
1938...
85.2
1939
91.1
100.6
1940
125.8
1941
159.1
1942
192.5
1943
211.4
1944
1945
213.6
1946
210.7
1047
234.3
259.4
1948
258.1
1949
284.6
1950
329.0
1951
1952
„ . 347.0
365.4
1953
363.1
1954...
1955
397.5
1956
419.2
442.8
1957
444.5
1958
482.7
1959
I960..
502.6
1961
518.7
556.2
1962
583.9
1963 . . .
622. 3
1964 6
545.5
553. 4
II
559.0
IV.. _. 566.6
1963: I
571.8
II
577.4
III
587.2
IV
599.0
1964: I
608.8
II
618. 6
III.... 628.4
IV 6- - 633. 5
1930.
1931._
1932
Personal
consumption
expendi- Total
tures »
79.0
71.0
61.3
49.3
46.4
51.9
56.3
62.6
67.3
64.6
67.6
71.9
81.9
89.7
100.5
109.
121.7
147.1
165.4
178.3
181.2
195.0
16.2
10.3
5.5
New construction
Net
exports
of
goods
and
serv- Total
ices'
II
5*
3.6
6.2
4.0
1.9
1.4
1.7
2.1
1.6
.5
.6
1.0
1.6
1.9
2.0
2.7
3.0
3.5
1.7
219.8
232.
238.0
256.9
269.9
285.2
293.2
313.5
328.2
337.3
356.8
375.0
399.2
1.4
2.9
6.3
8.4
11.7
6.7
9.3
13.2
18.1
9.9
5.6
7.1
10.4
28.1
31.5
43.1
33.0
50.0
56.3
49.9
50.3
48.9
63.8
67.4
66.1
56.6
72.7
71.8
68.8
79.1
82.0
87.
5.5
6.6
3.7
2.3
2.7
3.8
11.0
15.3
19.5
18.8
24.2
24.8
25.5
27.6
29.7
34.9
35.5
36.1
35.5
40.2
40.7
41.0
44.2
46.
48.9
18.7
17.7
17.0
18.0
22.3
21.1
21.1
23.6
25.2
26.0
350.5
354.0
358. 5
364.0
369.2
372.0
377.4
381.3
390.0
396.1
404.6
406.2
77.4
78.9
80.2
79.9
77.9
80.2
82.8
87.1
85.9
87.2
87.3
90.5
42.5
44.1
45.5
44.9
44.7
45.9
47.2
48.3
49.2
48.9
48.9
48.6
22.5
23.5
24.4
24.0
24.3
25.1
25.4
26.2
26.9
26.2
25 7
25.0
209.8
Government purchases of goods
and services
2.3
3.3
4.4
4.0
4.8
1.1
4.8
7.5
10.1
9.6
14.1
12.5
12.8
13.8
5.1
4.1
2.4
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.7
2.5
2.0
2.1
2,5
3.1
2.0
1.4
1.9
2.7
6.3
7.7
9.3
9.2
10.1
12.3
12.7
13.8
14.3
16.2
17.8
19.0
17.4
17.9
19.7
19.8
20.6
21.3
22.9
5.8
4.5
2.8
1.6
1.6
2.3
3.1
4.2
5.1
3.6
4.2
5.5
6.9
4.3
4.0
5.4
7.7
10.7
16.7
18.9
17.2
18.9
21.3
21.3
22.3
20.8
23.1
27.2
28.5
23.1
25.9
27.6
25.9
29.0
31.0
35.1
1.7
-.4
-1.3
-2.6
-1.6
-1.1
.9
1.0
2.2
-.9
.4
2.2
4.5
1.8
-.8
-1.0
-1.1
6.4
-.5
4.7
-3.1
6.8
10.2
3.1
.4
-1.6
5.8
4.7
1.6
-2.0
6.6
3.5
1.9
5.9
4.4
3.7
0.8
8.5
.7
.2
.2
.2
.4
9.2
9.2
8.1
8.0
9.8
10.0
11.8
11.7
12.8
13.3
14.1
24.8
59.7
88.6
96.5
82.9
30.5
28.4
34.5
40.2
39.0
60.5
76.0
82.8
75.3
75.6
79.0
86.5
93.5
97.2
99.6
108.0
116. 3
122.6
128.7
-.1
-.1
.1
1.1
.9
1.5
1.1
-.2
-2.2
-2.1
-1.4
4.9
9.0
3.5
3.8
.6
2.4
1.3
-.4
1.0
1.1
2.9
4.9
1.2
-.8
3.0
4.6
4.0
4.4
6.7
Federal
State
and
local
Total
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
2.0
3.0
2.9
4.8
4.6
5.3
5.2
6.2
16.9
52.0
81.2
89.0
74.8
20.6
15.6
19.3
22.2
19.3
38.8
52.9
58.0
47.5
45.3
45.7
49.7
52.6
53.6
53.1
57.4
62.9
64.7
65.6
7.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
2.0
3.0
2.9
4.8
4.6
5.3
1.3 3.9
2.2
13.8
49.6
80.4
88.6
75.9
18.8
11.4
11.6
13.6
14.3
33.9
46.4
49.3
41.2
39.1
40.4
44.4
44.8
46.2
()
0.2
.6
1.2
2.2
2.7
1.1
.5
.2
7.8
7.7
6.6
6.0
6.8
7.1
7.0
7.2
7.5
8.2
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.4
7.5
8.1
9.9
12.7
15.2
17.9
19.7
21.7
23.2
24.9
27.7
30.3
33.2
36.8
40.8
43.6
46.5
50.6
53.5
57.9
63.0
45.7
53.6 10. 2
55.2 10. 3
55. 3 11. 4
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I
20.0
20.6
21.1
20.9
20.4
20.8
21.9
22.1
22.3
22.7
23.1
23.6
28.1
28.8
29.6
29.7
29.6
30.7
31.4
32.4
34.2
34.6
35.6
35.9
6.9
6.1
5.1
5.4
3.6
3.6
4.2
6.4
3.4
4.3
4.4
3.9
3.4
4.3
4.2
5.8
2.5
3.7
2.8
6.0
7.7
5.7
7.0
6.5
1
2
3
4
114.3
116.1
115.9
118.7
121.4
120.9
122. 8
124.8
125.2
129.6
129.5
130.3
61.4
63.6
62.4
63.8
65.1
64.3
64.4
64.9
64.3
67.1
65.5
65.7
52.5 9.6
55.3 9.4
53.0 10.2
53.5 11.4
54.8 11.3
55.2 9.9
55.5 9.5
55.3 10.5
54.0 11.5
57.0 11.0
55.2 11.2
55.1 11.8
0.7
1.0
.8
1.0
1.0
.9
.6
.9
1.2
.9
.9
1.2
52.8
52.5
53.5
54.8
56.3
56.7
58.4
59.9
60.9
62.5
64.1
64.6
See Table B-9 for major components.
See Table B-10 for further detail and explanation of components.
See Table B-7 for exports and imports separately.
Prior to 1959, this category corresponds closely to the national defense classification in the Budget of the
United States Government for the Fiscal Year ending June 30,1966. Beginning with 1959, they differ because
of inclusion of space program expenditures in this table; these expenditures, small in 1959-61, amounted
to 8$1.6 billion in 1962, $3.1 billion in 1963 and $4.3 billion in 1964. See Table B-58.
Less than $50 million.
6
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
7157^981 O—^65
TABLE B-2.—Gross national product or expenditure, in 1964 prices, 7929-64
1
[Billions of dollars, 1964 prices]
Personal consumption
expenditures
Gross private domestic investment
Total
Year or quarter
national
product
New construction
Dura- Nonlurabli Services Total
ble durable
Total
goods
Producers'
Residurable
dential
equipTotal non- Other ment
farm
Change
in business
inventories
1929.
217.8
147.3
15.6
72.8
43.4
26.5
10.6
15.9
13.6
3.4
1930.
1931.
1932.
1933.
1934.
198.1
183.7
156.8
153.0
167.6
138.7
134.4
122.4
119.5
125.6
12.5
10.8
8.2
7.9
9.1
69.3
69.0
63.5
61.6
65.7
56.9
54.7
50.8
50.0
50.9
29.8
18.6
5.5
5.9
10.2
19.7
13.8
7.7
5.8
6.5
6.2
5.2
2.6
1.9
2.3
13.5
8.6
5.1
3.9
4.2
10.8
7.2
4.3
4.5
6.1
-2.5
-6.5
-4.4
-2.4
1935.
1936.
1937.
1938.
1939.
183.3
208.7
219.5
210.2
227.3
133.3
146.6
151.8
149.3
157.6
11.2
13.8
14.5
11.8
14.0
69.4
77.3
79.9
81.3
85.6
52.7
55.5
57.4
56.3
58.0
19.2
26.2
32.4
19.3
26.7
8.5
11.9
14.3
12.8
15.3
3.8
5.6
6.0
6.2
8.3
4.7
6.3
8.2
6.6
7.0
8.2
11.2
12.7
8.8
10.3
2.5
3.1
5.4
-2.3
1.1
1940_
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944.
246.3
287.1
330.9
374.1
401.7
165.9
176.8
173.4
178.1
184.6
16.1
18.6
11.4
9.9
9.0
89.5
95.5
97.5
100.5
104.9
60.2
62.7
64.5
67.7
70.6
35.3
44.4
22.8
13.6
15.4
17.1
19.2
9.9
5.6
6.2
8.9
9.6
4.4
2.1
1.8
8.2
9.6
5.5
3.5
4.4
13.3
15.7
9.0
8.4
11.2
4.9
9.5
3.8
-.3
-1.9
1945.
1946.
1947.
19481949-
392.9
337.9
336.8
350.4
351.8
197.3
220.6
224.2
228.5
234.3
10.3
20.4
24.5
25.9
27.7
113.2
120.1
117.5
117.2
118.6
73.8
80.1
82.2
85.4
88.0
21.1
51.7
51.8
60.6
48.4
8.5
21.9
25.1
28.6
28.1
2.2
8.9
11.7
13.9
13.7
6.2
13.0
13.4
14.6
14.4
15.5
19.6
26.4
27.7
24.1
-2.9
10.2
.2
4.3
-3.8
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
380.4
412.2
429.0
448.9
439.8
248.3
250.7
257.3
269.5
273.1
33.8
30.7
30.0
34.8
34.1
121.9
124.1
128.3
132.0
133.2
92.7
95.9
99.1
102.7
105.9
68.2
70.6
62.2
63.0
34.4
32.8
32.7
34.8
37.4
18.9
15.7
15.6
16.6
18.8
15.5
17.2
17.1
18.2
18.7
25.9
26.8
26.6
27.4
25.3
7.9
11.0
2.9
.8
-2.2
1955..
1956..
1957-.
1958..
1959..
473.4
483.5
493.0
486.0
518.1
293.3
303.2
311.3
314.2
331.9
41.7
40.0
40.6
37.4
43.2
140.0
145.4
148.0
148.7
154.8
111.7
117.8
122.8
128.1
133.9
76.6
76.2
71.7
60.7
75.8
42.6
40.8
40.1
39.1
43.2
22.2
19.8
18.7
19.8
23.8
20.5
21.0
21.4
19.3
19.4
27.5
30.4
30.0
23.7
26.0
6.6
5.0
1.6
-2.1
6.5
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963-.
1964 8
531.2
541.6
575.7
595.3
622.3
342.7
349.5
366.4
380.2
399.2
44.5
43.6
48.1
51.9
57.0
157.8
160.1
165.5
169.2
177.1
140.5
145.8
152.8
159.1
165.1
74.3
71.0
80.8
83.3
87.7
43.3
43.2
46.1
47.6
48.9
22.2
22.3
24.6
25.8
26.0
21.0
21.0
21.5
21.7
22.9
27.6
26.0
29.3
31.2
35.1
3.4
1.8
5.5
4.4
3.7
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
567.0
574.1
578.0
583.4
361.4
364.2
367.8
372.1
47.2
47.3
48.0
50.0
163.6
165.0
166.4
166.9
150.6
151.9
153.4
155.2
79.5
80.7
81.5
81.5
44.7
46.0
47.1
46.5
23.8
24.5
25.2
24.8
20.9
21.5
21.9
21.7
28.3
28.9
29.8
30.1
6.5
5.7
4.7
5.0
1963: I...
II..
IIIIV.-
586.9
589.8
598.0
606.2
376.0
377.9
382.3
384.6
51.1
51.2
51.9
53.4
168.2
168.6
170.2
169.7
156.7
158.1
160.2
161.4
79.6
81.7
83.8
87.9
46.2
47.1
48.0
48.9
25.1
25.8
25.9
26.6
21.0
21.3
22.2
22.4
29,9
30.9
31.6
32.7
3.5
3.6
4.2
6.4
1964: I_._
II..
Ill-
612.9
620.2
626.6
629.4
391.8
396.4
404.1
404.6
55.9
56.8
58.5
56.6
173.2
175.7
179.5
180.1
162.7
164.0
166.0
167.9
86.5
87.4
86.9
89.8
49.7
49.2
48.5
48.0
27.2
26.4
25.5
24.7
22.5
22.8
23.0
23.3
34.3
34.5
35.6
35.8
2.5
3.7
2.8
6.0
1962: I...
II..
III.
IV-
IV s.
See footnotes at end of table.
I9O
TABLE B-2.—Gross national product or expenditure, in 1964 prices, 1929-64*—Continued
[Billions of dollars, 1964 prices]
Year or quarter
Net
exports
of goods
and
services
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal
Total
National
Total 2 defense 2 3 Other
State and
local
1.0
26.0
4.0
22.0
1930...
1931...
1932...
1933...
1934...
.4
.2
-.3
-.1
28.7
30.3
28.7
27.9
31.8
4.6
5.0
5.3
7.2
9.4
24.1
25.3
23.5
20.7
22.4
1935...
1936...
1937...
1938...
1939...
-1.3
-1.5
-.9
1.5
1.0
32.2
37.4
36.2
40.1
42.0
9.1
14.0
13.1
15.6
15.0
1940...
1941...
1942...
1943...
1944...
1.8
.2
-2.3
-5.9
-6.0
43.3
65.7
137.1
188.3
207.8
1945...
1946...
1947....
1948...
1949...
-4.7
4.9
9.3
3.0
3.7
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1929...
3.6
()
411.4
23.0
23.5
23.1
24.5
27.0
17.9
41.8
115.2
168.5
188.3
6.4
34.0
109.3
165.4
185.0
7.8
5.9
3.1
3.3
25.4
23.9
21.8
19.8
19.5
179.2
60.6
51.5
58.3
65.4
159.3
38.4
26.3
31.1
34.4
157.1
30.0
17.2
17.9
20.7
2.2
8.4
9.1
13.3
13.7
19.9
22.2
25.2
27.2
31.0
1.3
3.5
2.5
.3
2.2
87.4
107.0
116.0
103.8
29.4
53.4
72.5
80.0
64.7
21.5
46.2
63.3
67.6
55.6
7.9
7.2
9.2
12.4
9.1
33.2
34.0
34.6
36.1
39.2
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
2.4
4.2
5.5
1.4
-.5
101.1
100.0
104.4
109.7
110.9
59.2
56.7
58.8
60.5
59.7
50.6
49.6
52.1
51.0
50.9
7.1
6.8
9.5
8.8
41.9
43.3
45.6
49.2
51.2
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964s_.
3.5
4.4
4.2
4.4
6.7
110.7
116.7
124.2
127.5
128.7
57.6
61.0
67.2
67.5
65.6
48.9
51.5
56.4
56.8
54.2
8.7
9.5
10.9
10.8
11.4
53.1
55.7
57.0
60.0
63.0
(4)
()
8
( 11.5
)
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I.-_.
III..
IV..
3.2
4.8
4.8
4.1
122.9
124.4
123.8
125.6
65.9
68.2
66.9
67.9
55.5
58.2
56.0
55.7
10.3
10.0
10.9
12.2
57.1
56.2
56.8
57.8
1963: I.__
II.IIIIV..
3.3
4.2
4.2
5.8
128.0
126.1
127.8
127.9
68.9
67.2
67.4
66.6
57.0
56.8
57.5
55.8
12.0
10.3
10.0
10.8
59.0
58.9
60.3
61.4
1964: I . . .
II_III.
IV 8
7.7
5.7
7.0
6.5
126.9
130.6
128.7
128.4
65.0
67.8
65.0
64.7
53.4
56.7
53.9
53.1
11.7
11.1
11. 1
11.6
61.9
62.9
63.7
63.7
1
These estimates represent an approximate conversion of the Department of Commerce series in 1954
prices. (See Tables B-3 and B-6.) This was done by major components, using the implicit price indexes
converted to a 1964 base. Although it would have been preferable to redeflate the series by minor components, this would not substantially change the results except possibly for the period of World War II, and
for the series on change in business inventories.
For explanation of conversion of estimates in current prices to those in 1954 prices, see U.S. Income and
Output,
A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1958.
2
Net of Government sales. See Table B-l for Government sales in current prices.
3
See
footnote
4, Table B-l.
4
Not available separately.
5
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
191
TABLE B-3.—Gross national product or expenditure^ in 1954 prices, 1929-64 l
[Billions of dollars, 1954 prices]
Gross private domestic investment
Personal consumption
expenditures
Total
gross
Year or quarter national
product
New construction
Total
DurNon- Servable durable ices
goods goods
Total
ProChange
ducers' in busiPesidurable
ness
equip- invenTotal dential
non- Other ment
tories
farm
1929..
181.8
128.1
14.9
65.3
48.0
35.0
20.9
8.7
12.2
11.1
3.0
1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..
164.5
153.0
130.1
126.6
138.5
120.3
116.6
106.0
103.5
108.9
11.8
10.3
7.8
7.5
8.6
62.1
61.8
56.9
55.2
58.8
46.4
44.6
41.4
40.8
41.5
23.6
15.0
3.9
4.0
7.4
15.4
10.9
6.0
4.6
5.1
5.1
4.2
2.1
1.6
1.9
10.4
6.6
3.9
3.0
3.2
8.8
5.9
3.5
3.7
5.0
-.7
-1.8
-5.6
-4.2
-2.8
1935..
1936..
1937..
1938..
1939..
152.9
173.3
183.5
175.1
189.3
115.8
127.7
132.1
129.9
137.3
10.7
13.1
13.8
11.2
13.3
62.1
69.2
71.6
72.8
76.7
42.9
45.3
46.8
45.9
47.2
16.1
21.0
27.0
15.5
21.6
6.7
9.4
11.3
10.1
12.2
3.1
4.6
5.0
5.1
6.8
3.6
4.9
6.3
5.0
5.4
6.7
9.2
10.5
7.3
8.5
2.6
2.4
5.2
-1.8
1.0
1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
205.8
238.1
266.9
296.7
317.9
144.6
154.3
150.8
154.6
160.2
15.3
17.6
10.9
80.2
85.6
87.3
90.0
94.0
49.1
51.1
52.6
55.2
57.6
29.0
36.7
18.8
10.7
12.3
13.6
15.3
7.8
4.4
4.8
7.3
7.9
3.6
1.7
1.4
6.3
7.4
4.2
2.7
3.4
10.9
12.9
7.4
6.9
9.2
4.5
8.6
3.6
-.6
-1.7
1945..
1946..
1947-.
1948..
1949..
314.0
282.5
282.3
293.1
292.7
171.4
192.3
195.6
199.3
204.3
9.8
19.4
23.3
24.6
26.3
101.4
107.6
105.3
105.1
106.3
60.2
65.3
67.0
69.6
71.7
17.0
42.4
41.5
49.8
38.5
17.3
19.9
22.7
22.3
1.8
7.3
9.6
11.4
11.2
4.8
10.0
10.3
11.2
11.1
12.7
16.1
21.7
22.8
19.8
-2.4
9.0
-.1
4.4
-3.6
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
318.1
341.8
353.5
363.1
216.8
218.5
224.2
235.1
238.0
32.1
29.2
28.5
33.1
32.4
109.2
111.2
115.0
118.3
119.3
75.5
78.2
80.8
83.7
86.3
55.9
57.7
50.4
50.6
48.9
27.4
26.0
26.0
27.6
29.7
15.5
12.9
12.8
13.6
15.4
11.9
13.2
13.2
14.0
14.3
21.3
22.0
21.8
22.5
20.8
7.2
9.7
2.6
.5
-1.6
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
392.7
400.9
408.6
401.3
428.6
256.0
264.3
271.2
273.2
288.9
39.6
38.0
38.5
35.5
41.0
125.4 91.0
130.3 96.0
132.6 100.1
133.3 104.4
138.7 109.2
62.5
61.7
58.1
49.0
61.7
33.9
32.3
31.8
31.1
34.4
18.2
16.2
15.3
16.2
19.5
15.7
16.1
16.5
14.8
14.9
22.5
25.0
24.6
19.4
21.4
6.1
4.5
1.6
-1.5
5.9
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964*.
439.9
447.9
476.4
492.6
515.7
298.1
303.8
318.5
330.6
347.5
42.2
41.4
45.7
49.3
54.1
141.4
143.5
148.3
151.6
158.7
60.2
57.4
65.9
67.7
71.0
34.4
34.3
36.7
37.9
38.9
18.2
18.2
20.1
21.2
21.3
16.2
16.1
16.5
16.7
17.6
22.7
21.4
24.0
25.6
28.8
3.1
1.7
5.2
4.1
3.4
9.4
8.6
114.5
118.9
124.5
129.7
134.6
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
II...
III.
IV.
469.1
475.1
478.3
483.0
314.2
316.6
319.8
323.6
44.8
44.9
45.6
47.6
146.6
147.8
149.1
149.5
122.7
123.8
125.0
126.5
64.8
65.8
66.3
66.5
35.5
36.6
37.5
37.0
19.5
20.1
20.6
20.3
16.1
16.5
16.9
16.7
23.2
23.8
24.4
24.7
6.1
5.4
4.4
4.9
1963: I—.
II...
III..
IV..
485.4
487.9
494.8
502.0
327.0
328.6
332.4
334.4
48.5
48.6
49.4
50.8
150.7
151.1
152.5
152.1
127.8
128.9
130.6
131.6
64.7
66.2
68.1
71.7
36.8
37.5
38.2
39.0
20.6
21.2
21.2
21.8
16.2
16.4
17.0
17.2
24.6
25.4
25.9
26.8
3.4
3.3
4.0
5.9
1964: I
II—
III.
508.0
513.5
519.6
521.5
340.9
345.0
351.8
352.1
53.1
54.0
55.6
53.8
155.2
157.4
160.9
161.4
132.6
133.7
135.3
136.9
70.1
70.8
70.4
72.8
39.6
39.2
38.6
38.2
22.3
21.6
20.9
20.3
17.3
17.5
17.7
17.9
28.1
23.3
29.2
29.4
2.4
3.3
2.5
5.2
1962: I . . . .
See footnotes at end of table.
192
T A B L E B-3.—Gross national product
1929-641—Continued
or expenditure, in 1954 prices,
[Billions of dollars, 1954 prices]
Year or quarter
Net exports of goods and
services
Government purchases of
goods and services
Gross
private
product»
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
1929.
0.2
11.1
10.9
18.5
2.9
15.6
171.5
1930.
19311932.
1933.
1934.
.2
-.3
-.3
9.9
8.4
6.9
9.7
8.7
7.1
7.7
7.5
20.5
21.6
20.5
19.9
22.8
3.4
3.7
3.9
5.3
6.9
17.1
17.9
16.6
14.6
15.8
153.7
142.0
119.4
115.0
125.1
1935..
1936.
1937.
1938.
1939.
-1.9
-2.2
-1.6
.8
.3
7.3
7.7
9.3
9.3
9.5
9.2
9.8
10.9
8.5
9.2
23.0
26.9
26.0
28.8
30.1
6.7
10.3
9.6
11.4
11.0
16.3
16.6
16.4
17.4
19.1
138.7
156.6
167.8
158.0
172.1
1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944.
1.1
-.6
-2.9
-6.6
-6.7
10.5
10.6
7.6
6.7
7.4
9.4
11.3
10.5
13.2
14.1
31.1
47.7
100.1
137.9
152.2
13.1
30.7
84.7
123.9
138.4
18.0
16.9
15.4
14.0
13.8
188.1
216.0
234.8
246.4
259.8
1945.
1946.
1947.
19481949.,
-5.6
3.8
8.0
2.0
2.6
9.8
15.8
19.2
14.7
15.1
15.3
12.0
11.1
12.8
12.4
131.2
43.9
37.2
42.1
47.2
117.1
28.2
19.4
22.9
25.3
14.0
15.8
17.8
19.2
21.9
257.0
252.7
259.6
270.3
268.7
1950..
1951..
1952.
1953.
1954.,
.2
2.2
1.2
-.9
1.0
14.5
17.3
16.9
16.4
17.5
14.2
15.1
15.7
17.3
16.5
45.1
63.3
77.7
84.3
75.3
21.6
39.3
53.3
58.8
47.5
23.5
24.1
24.5
25.5
27.7
293.3
311.1
320.4
336.2
330.8
1955..
1956.,
1957.
1958.
1959.,
2.5
3.8
-.2
-2.1
19.2
22.4
24.4
21.4
21.9
18.3
19.8
20.6
21.6
24.1
73.2
72.3
75.5
79.3
80.1
43.5
41.7
43.2
44.5
43.9
29.7
30.6
32.2
34.8
36.2
360.4
368.2
375.4
367.9
394.8
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964*..
1.7
2.5
2.2
2.2
4.3
24.9
25.8
27.5
29.1
33.0
23.2
23.3
25.3
26.8
28.7
79.9
84.3
89.8
92.1
92.9
42.3
44.8
49.4
49.7
48.2
37.6
39.4
40.3
42.4
44.6
405.2
412.5
439.1
454.5
476.6
1962: I....
II...
III.
IV..
1.3
2.8
2.8
2.1
26.1
28.0
28.2
27.9
24.8
25.2
25.4
25.7
88.8
89.9
89.4
90.7
48.4
50.2
49.2
49.9
40.4
39.8
40.2
40.9
432.1
437.8
440 9
445.6
1963: I....
II—
III..
1.3
2.1
2.0
3.5
27.1
28.9
29.4
30.9
25.8
26.8
27.4
27.4
92.4
91.0
92.3
92.4
50.7
49.4
49.6
48.9
41.8
41.7
42.7
43.4
447.8
450.0
456.5
463.6
5.4
3.4
4.5
4.0
32.7
31.9
33.8
33.8
27.3
28.5
29.2
29.7
91.6
94.3
92.8
92.7
47.8
49.8
47.8
47.6
43.8
44.5
45.0
45.1
469.4
474.7
480.4
482.1
Total
State
Federal* and local
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
IV..
1964:*I
II....
III...
IV 4..
1
For explanation of conversion of estimates in current prices to those in 1954 prices, see U.S. Income and
Output,
A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1958. See Table B-6 for implicit price deflators.
2
Net
of Government sales.
3
Gross national product less compensation of general government employees; i.e., gross product accruing
from domestic business, households, and institutions, and from the rest of the world.
* Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
193
TABLE B-4.—Gross national product by major type of product, 1947-64
[Billions of dollars]
Goods output
Year or quarter
Total
gross
na- Final Inventory
tional
change
product
Durable
goods
Total
Nondurable
goods
Is
1947
1948
1949
234.3 234.8
259.4 254.7
258.1 261.1
- 0 . 5 143.8 144.3 - 0 . 5 47.4 46.0 1.4 96.4 98.2 -1.8 71.8 18.7
4.7 157.0 152.3 4.7 49.8 48.9
.99 107.
'. 2 103.4 3.8 78.1 24.3
25.2
- 3 . 1 149.3 152.4 - 3 . 1 47.9 49.9 -2.1 101.5 102.4 -1.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
284.6
329.0
347.0
365.4
363.1
277.8
318.7
343.9
364.9
364.8
6.8
10. 2
3.1
4
-1.6
163.6
191.8
198.2
206.9
197.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
397.5
419.2
442.8
444.5
482.7
391.7
414.5
441.2
446.5
476.1
5.8
4.7
1.6
-2.0
6.6
217.2 211.4 5.8 84.3
227.6 223.0 4.7 89.6
238. 2 236.6 1
94.5
229.4 231.4 -2.0 80.4
250.6 244.0 6.6 95.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
502.6
518.7
556.2
583.9
622.3
499.1
516.8
550.3
579.5
618.6
3.5
1.9
5.9
4.4
3.7
156.8 6.8 60.7 56.7 4.0
181.6 10.2 74.4 67.5 6.
6.9
195.2 3.1 75.6 74.5 1. 2
206.4
.4 79.8 78.9
9
199.0 - 1 . 6 71.6 74.1 - 2 . 5
257.1 253.7
»9.8 257.9
259.
279. 5 273. 6
290. 2 285.8
308.9 305.2
102.9
117.4
122.6
127.0
125.9
100.1 2.8
114.1 3.3
120.7 1.9
127.5 - . 5
.9
125.0
81.3 3.0 132.9 130.2
86.7 2. 8 138.1 136.2
93.4 1.0 143.7 143.2
83.3 -2.8 149.0 148.1
91.5 3. 5 155... 6 152.5
3.5 96.5 94.2 2.3 160.6
1.9 94.4 94.5 - . 1 165.4
5. 9 105. 3 102.3 3. 0 174.
1.2
4. 4 110. 4 108.2 2. 2 179.8
3.7 119.8 117.9 2.0 189.1
102.9
112.3
119.5
124.1
31.2
34.2
36.4
39.0
41.6
2.7 133.4 46.9
1.8 143.3 48.2
4.5 60.1
. 9 164.2 50.9
3.1 175.8 56.3
159.5
163.4
171.3
177. 6
187.4
1.1 188.8
2.0 200.8
2.9 214.7
2. 2 228.4
1.8 244.4
56.7
58.1
62.0
65.2
100.2
103. 5
101.4
104.1
3. 9 171. 6 168.7
173.0 170.0
174.6 172. 6
8 177,'. 7 174.1
2.9 210.0
3.0 212. 2
2.0 216. 8
3. 6 220.0
59.8
61.6
63.2
63.0
2.0 224. 7
.9 223.5
2. 7 231. 2
3. 4 234. 5
62.7
63.7
66.2
67.8
1.8 239. 6
1. 2 241
1. 5 246.
2. 5 250.6
68.6
68.9
69.2
68.7
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962:1...
II..
III.
IV.
545.5
553.4
559.0
566.6
538.7
547.3
554.0
561.2
6.9
6.1
5.1
5.4
1963: I . . .
IIIII.
IV.
571.8
577.4
587.2
599.0
568.2
573. 7
583.0
592.6
3. 6 284. 4 280.9
3. 6 290.1 286.5
4. 2 289. 8 285. 7
6.4 296.7 290.3
3. 6 106.6 105.0
3.6 113.7 111.0
4. 2 108.1 106.6
6. 4 113. 4 110.4
1. 5 177.9 175. 8
2.7 176.4 175. 5
1.5
3.0 183. 3 179.9
1964: I
II—
606.4
618.6 614.9
628.4 625.7
633.5 627.5
2. 5 300. 7 298. 2
7 308.0 304.3
8 313.3 310. 5
6.0 314.0 308.0
2.5 114.9 114.3
3.7 121.4 119.0
2.. 8 122.0 120. 7
6.0 120.9 117.5
.7
2.5
1.3
3.4
I I I1IV .
275. 8
279. 6
279.0
283. 6
268.9
273.5
273.9
278. 2
6.9
6.1
5.1
5.4
104. 2
106. 6
104.5
105.8
1
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
194
185.7
186. 6
191.3
193.1
183.9
185. 4
189.8
190.5
TABLE B-5.—Gross national product by major type of product, in 1954 prices, 7947-64 '
[Billions of dollars, 1954 prices]
Goods output
Total
gross
Durable goods Nondurable goods Serv- ConTotal
na- Final InvenYear or
tory
quarter tional sales change
ices struction
prodInvenInvenInven
uct
Total Final tory
Final tory Total Final tory
Total
goods
change
change
change
1947
1948
1949
282.3 282.4 -0.1
293.1 288.7
4.4
292.7 296.3 -3.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
318.1
341.8
353.5
369.0
363.1
310.9
7.2
332.1 9.7
350.9
2.6
368.5
.5
364.8 -1.6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
392.7
400.9
408.6
401.3
428.6
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
439.9
447.9
476.4
492.6
515.7
436.8
446.2
471.2
488.5
512.3
163.3 163.4 -0.1
167.7 163.4
4.4
162.3 165.9 - 3 . 6
55.8
55.4
51.9
54.3
1.5
54.6
.8
54.3 - 2 . 4
107.5 109.2 - 1 . 6
112.3 108.8
3.5
110.5 111.6 - 1 . 2
94.7
97.2
100.7
24.3
28.2
29.7
177.6
191.7
196.8
207.7
197.4
170.4
7^2
182.0 9.7
194.2
2.6
207.2
.5
199.0 - 1 . 6
65.3
74.6
75.1
80.8
71.6
4.3
61.0
7.1
67.4
73.9
1.2
79.8
1.0
74.1 - 2 . 5
112.3
117.1
121.8
126.9
125.9
109.4
114.5
120.3
127.4
125.0
2.9
2.6
1.5
-.5
.9
105.0
114.2
119.8
122.5
124.1
35.4
36.0
36.9
38.8
41.6
386.6
6.1
396.4
4.5
406.9
1.6
402.8 -1.5
422.7
5.9
216.9
221.4
223.4
211.5
228.8
210.8 6 1
4.5
217.0
1.6
221.7
213.1 - 1 . 5
5.9
222.9
83.1
84.9
85.5
71.7
82.9
3.0
80.1
2.7
82.3
1.0
84.5
74.1 - 2 . 4
3.0
80.0
133.8
136.5
137.9
139.8
145.9
130.7
134.7
137.2
139.0
143.0
3.1
1.8
.7
.8
2.9
130.2
135.5
141.2
145.2
151.4
45.6
43.9
44.0
44.5
48.3
3.1
1.7
5.2
4.1
3.4
233.0
233.6
250.3
258.1
229.9
232.0
245.1
254.0
269.3
2.1
-. 1
2.6
1.9
1.6
148.8
151.6
158.6
161.8
168.4
147.7
149.8
155.9
159.6
166.7
1.1
1.7
2.6
2.3
1.7
158.8
165.4
174.8
181.4
188.5
48.1
48.9
51.3
53.0
54.5
3.1
1.7
5.2
4.1
3.4
84.2 82.2
82.1 82.1
91.7 89.2
96.3 94.4
104.3 102.6
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
6.1
5.4
4.4
4.9
247.3
250.5
249.8
253. 5
241.2
245.1
245.4
248.6
6.1
5.4
4.4
4.9
90.7
92.6
91.0
92.6
87.3
89.9
88.3
91.1
3.4
2.7
2.7
1.6
156.6
157.9
158. 8
160.9
153.9
155.2
157.1
157.6
2.7
2.8
1.7
3.3
171.7
173.2
176.4
177.7
50.1
51.3
52.1
51.8
I I — 487.9 484.6
III— 494.8 490.9
IV... 502.0 496.1
3.4
3.3
4.0
5.9
253.9
257.7
257.8
263.2
2.50.5
254.4
253.8
257.3
3.4
3.3
4.0
5.9
93.3
98.7
94.3
99.0
92.0
96.4
93.0
96.4
1.3
2.3
1.2
2.6
160.6
159.0
163.6
164.2
158.5
158.0
160.8
160.9
2.0
1.0
2.7
3.3
179.9
178.1
183.5
184.2
51.6
52.1
53.5
54.6
505.6
510.2
517.0
516.3
2.4
3.3
2.5
5.2
266.2
271.8
276.3
276.5
263.8
268.5
273.7
271.3
2.4
3.3
2.5
5.2
100.4 99.8
105.4 103.3
106.0 104.9
105.2 102.5
.6
2.1
1.1
2.7
165.8
166.4
170.3
171.3
164.0
165.2
168.8
168.8
1.8
1.2
1.5
2.5
186.8
186.7
188.9
191.4
55.0
55.0
54.4
53.7
1962: I
469.1 463.0
II— 475.1 469.7
III.. 478.3 473.9
IV... 483.0 478.1
1963: I
1964: I
II.—
III—
IV 2..
485.4 482.1
508.0
513.5
519.6
521.5
1
For explanation of conversion of estimates in current prices to those in 1954 prices, see 17.S. Income and
Output,
A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1958.
8
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
195
TABLE B-6.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-64
[Index numbers, 1954=100]
Personal consumption
expenditures
Year or quarter
Gross
national
product i
Total
Gross private domestic
investment *
New construction
DurNonable durable Services
goods goods
Total
Residential
nonfarm
Producers'
durable
Other equipment
1929
57.4
61.6
62.0
57.7
66.8
41.7
41.8
41.6
52.5
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
55.4
49.9
44.9
44.2
46.9
59.0
52.6
46.5
44.8
47.6
60.5
53.5
47.0
46.1
48.8
54.8
46.9
40.0
40.3
45.3
64.2
60.3
55.3
50.7
50.7
40.0
36.5
31.1
31.2
33.3
40.8
37.1
30.1
29.8
33.1
39.7
36.2
31.7
31.9
33.4
50.5
47.9
45.5
43.1
45.9
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
47.4
47.7
49.5
48.7
48.1
48.6
49.1
50.9
49.8
49.2
47.9
47.9
50.3
50.8
50.2
47.2
47.4
49.1
46.7
45.8
50.9
51.9
53.8
54.5
54.5
34.1
34.8
39.0
39.1
39.0
32.6
34.3
37.8
39.2
39.5
35.4
35.2
39.9
39.1
38.4
45 6
45.4
48.7
50.2
49.4
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
48.9
52.9
59.6
64.9
66.5
49.7
53.1
59.5
65.0
68.6
50.7
54.8
64.2
70.3
78.7
46.4
50.5
58.8
65.8
69.5
54.8
56.8
59.8
62.8
65.5
40.1
43.4
47.6
53.0
56.3
40.9
44.6
47.7
51.4
56.2
39.1
42.2
47.6
54.0
56.3
50.6
54.0
58.5
58.4
59.3
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
68.0
74.6
83.0
88.5
88.2
71.0
76.5
84.6
89.5
88.7
82.8
82.0
88.4
92.4
93.5
72.2
78.8
88.7
94.0
90.9
67.1
71.1
76.8
81.7
83.6
57.8
63.7
76.6
85.9
84.3
60.0
65.3
78.4
88.6
85.9
56.9
62.6
74.8
83.1
82.6
60 0
66.7
76.8
83 1
87.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
89.5
96.2
98.1
99.0
100.0
89.9
96.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
94.6
101.1
102.2
99.4
100.0
91.4
99.0
100.1
99.7
100.0
85.9
89.8
93.6
97.7
100.0
88.3
95.3
98.4
100.1
100.0
90.9
97.5
100.3
101.3
100.0
85.1
93.1
96.5
98.9
100.0
89.0
96.8
97.5
99.0
100.0
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
101.2
104.6
108.4
110.8
112.6
100.4
102.1
105.1
107.3
108.5
100.1
101.3
104.7
104.9
106.3
99.5
100.9
103.9
106.3
106.0
101.7
104.1
107.0
109.4
. 112.5
103.1
109.8
113.5
114.2
116.8
103.0
109.0
111.2
111.2
114.3
103.2
110.7
115.7
117.6
120.1
102.6
109.0
115.7
118.9
121.4
-.
114.2
115.8
116.7
118.5
120.7
110.1
111.1
112.0
113.4
114.9
106.3
105.5
105.9
105.6
105.2
107.4
108.3
109.2
110.5
111.6
114.8
116.3
117.5
119.8
122.7
118.4
119.4
120.6
122.9
125.7
115.5
115.9
117.2
119.1
122.0
121.6
123.3
124.8
127.6
130.2
121.6
121.3
120.9
120.9
121.9
-
116.3
116.5
116.9
117.3
111.6
111.8
112.1
112.5
105.7
106.2
106.2
105.5
108.8
108.9
109.2
109.9
117.0
117.3
117.7
118.2
119.5
120.3
121.5
121.3
115.5
116.9
118.2
118.0
124.2
124.3
125.4
125.4
120.9
121.3
121.3
120.4
1963: I
II
HI
IV
117.8
118.3
118.7
119.3
112.9
113.2
113.5
114.0
105.2
105.9
105.8
105.6
110.2
110.2
110.6
111.1
119.0
119.4
119.9
120.7
121.6
122.3
123.6
123.9
117.9
118.5
119.7
120.2
126.3
127.1
128.4
128.7
120.6
121.0
121.0
121.0
1964: I
II
III
IV 2.
119.8
120.5
121.0
121.4
114.4
114.8
115.0
115.4
105.4
105.7
105.5
104.3
111.4
111.4
111.6
112.0
121.5
122.5
123.0
123.7
124.3
124.9
126.6
127.2
120.7
121.4
122.9
123.3
128.8
129.1
130.9
131.7
121.7
122.0
121.9
121.9
1960
1961
1962
1963
19642
-
1962: I
II
HI
IV
--
..
See footnotes at end of table.
196
TABLE B-6.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-64—Continued
[Index numbers, 1954=100]
Exports and imports1of Government purchases of goods
and services
goods and services
Year or quarter
Exports
Imports
Total
Federal
State and
local
1929
63.1
57.3
45.8
44.5
46.1
1930
1931
1932 _
1933
1934
55.0
43.2
36.2
35.2
43.0
48.9
39.7
32.3
29.3
33.8
44.9
42.7
39.4
40.3
42.9
41.8
41.7
38.2
38.3
43.2
45.5
43.0
39.7
41.1
42.8
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
44.7
46.0
48.9
46.5
46.9
36.0
36.9
41.1
38.0
38.6
43.4
44.0
45.1
44.5
44.2
43.7
46.9
47.3
46.1
46.8
43.3
42.2
43.8
43.4
42.7
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
51.2
56.1
64.9
68.1
73.3
40.9
43.0
48.9
51.3
53.3
45.2
51.9
59.6
64.3
63.4
47.0
55.1
61.4
65.6
64.3
43.9
46.2
49.8
52.7
54.6
75.3
80.8
93.4
98.6
92.7
57.4
65.5
79.7
86.3
82.0
63.2
69.4
76.4
82.0
85.1
63.9
73.0
80.8
84.4
88.0
57.4
63.0
71.5
79.3
81.7
90.3
103.3
103.0
101.0
100.0
87.8
102.8
102.8
98.2
100.0
86.5
95.5
97.8
98.3
100.0
89.6
98.7
99.2
98.6
100.0
83.7
90.2
94.8
97.5
100.0
100.7
103.4
107.4
105.9
104.3
99.9
101.8
103.2
99.2
98.2
103.3
109.2
114.6
117.9
121.4
104.1
109.7
114.9
118.3
122.2
102.2
108.6
114.2
117.3
120.3
105.5
107.2
105 9
105.7
105.6
100.5
99.0
99.5
98.1
98.2
125.5
128.0
127.2
130.2
136.0
123.8
128.3
132.5
136.4
141.3
107.3
105.6
105.2
105.6
99.2
100.2
99.6
99.0
124.7
128.1
129.6
133.1
138.5
128.7
129.1
129.7
130.8
126.9
126.9
126.9
128.0
130.9
132.0
133.1
134.2
106.0
105.7
105.4
105.6
98.4
98.0
97.9
98.1
131.3
132.8
133.1
135.2
128.6
130.2
129.9
132.6
134.7
135.9
136.8
138.1
105.6
105.6
105.6
105.6
98.2
98.2
98.2
98.2
136.8
137.4
139.5
140.6
134.5
134.7
137.0
138.0
139.2
140.5
142.2
143.3
.
.
_
1945
1946
1947
1948. .
1949-
__.
.
1950.
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959. .
_.
_
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 2
1962: I
_.
-.
II
III
IV
1963: I
II
III .
IV
1964: I
II .
III
IV 2
. .
_
-.
.
.
_.
1
Separate deflators are not available for total gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, and net exports of goods and services.
For explanation of conversion of estimates in current prices to those in 1954 prices, see U.S. Income and
Output,
a Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1958.
2
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
197
TABLE B-7.—Gross national product: Receipts and expenditures by major economic groups,
7929-64
[Billions of dollars)
Persons
Disposable
personal
Income
Personal
consumptlon
expenditures
1929.
83.1
79.0
1930.
1931.
1932.
1933.
1934.
74.4
63.8
48.7
45.7
52.0
71.0
61.3
49.3
46.4
51.9
1935.
1936.
1937.
19381939.
58.3
66.2
71.0
65.7
70.4
1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944.
Business
International
Gross
retained
earnings i
Gross
private
domestic
investment
Excess
of receipts
or investment
)
4.2
11.5
16.2
-4.7
3.4
2.5
-.6
-.6
.1
8.8
5.2
2.7
2.6
4.9
10.3
5.5
.9
1.4
2.9
-1.5
-.3
1.8
1.2
2.0
56.3
62.6
67.3
64.6
67.6
2.0
3.6
3.7
1.1
2.9
6.3
6.5
7.8
7.8
8.3
6.3
8.4
11.7
6.7
9.3
.1
-1.9
-4.0
1.2
-1.0
76.1
93.0
117.5
133.5
146.8
71.9
81.9
89.7
100.5
109.8
4.2
11.1
27.8
33.0
36.9
10.4
11.5
14.1
16.3
17.2
13.2
18.1
9.9
5.6
7.1
-2.8
-6.6
4.3
10.7
10.1
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
150.4
160.6
170.1
189.3
189.7
121.7
147.1
165.4
178.3
181.2
28.7
13.5
4.7
11.0
8.5
15.6
13.1
18.9
26.6
27.6
10.4
28.1
31.5
43.1
33.0
5.2
-15.1
-12.6
-16.5
-5.4
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
207.7
227.5
238.7
252.5
256.9
195.0
209.8
219.8
232.6
238.0
12.6
17.7
18.9
19.8
18.9
27.7
31.5
33.2
34.3
35.5
50.0
56.3
49.9
50.3
48.9
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
274.4
292.9
308.8
317.9
337.1
256.9
269.9
285.2
293.2
313.5
17.5
23.0
23.6
24.7
23.6
42.1
43.0
45.6
44.8
51.3
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
19643
349.9
364.7
384.6
402.5
431.8
328.2
337.3
356.8
375.0
399.2
21.7
27.3
27.8
27.5
32.6
50.7
51.2
57.5
59.1
«65.0
Year or quarter
Personal
saving
or dissaving
For- Net exports of goods
eign
and services
net
transfers by
govExNet
Imern- exports ports ports
ment
Excess
of
transfers or
net exports
()
0.8
7.0
6.3
-0.8
.7
.2
.2
.2
.4
5.4
3.6
2.5
2.4
3.0
4.8
3.4
2.3
2.3
2.5
-.7
-.2
-.2
-.2
—.4
3.3
3.5
4.6
4.3
4.4
3.3
3.6
4.5
3.2
3.5
.1
.1
-.1
-LI
-.9
3.8
4.8
5.1
6.8
7.5
-1.5
-1.1
-2.1
5.4
6.0
4.9
4.5
5.4
0.3
.1
1.6
3.2
-1.4
4.9
9.0
3.5
3.8
7.4
12.8
17.9
14.5
14.0
8.8
7.9
8.9
11.0
10.2
1.4
-4.6
-8.9
-1.9
-.5
-22.3
-24.8
-16.6
-16.0
-13.4
2.8
2.1
.5
.6
.4
.6
2.4
1.3
-.4
1.0
13.1
17.9
17.4
16.6
17.5
12.5
15.5
16.1
17.0
16.5
2.2
—.2
.2
2.0
.4
63.8
67.4
66.1
56,6
72.7
-21.8
-24.3
-20.5
-11.9
-21.4
5
5
5
1.1
2.9
4.9
1.2
-.8
19.4
23.1
26.2
22.7
22.9
18.3
20.2
21.3
21.5
23.6
71.8
68.8
79.1
82.0
87.7
-21.1
-17.6
-21.7
-22.9
-22.6
3.0
4.6
4.0
4.4
6.7
26.3
27.6
29.2
30.7
34.9
23.3
23.0
25.2
26.3
28.2
.4
-1.5
-3.5
.1
2.3
-1.4
-3.0
-2.4
-2.8
-5.0
1.5
1.1
-.2
-2.2
.8
2.2
2.1
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I...
II..
III.
IV..
378.5
383.4
386.0
390.4
350.5
354.0
358.5
364.0
28.0
29.4
27.5
26.4
56.2
57.1
57.7
58.9
77.4
78.9
80.2
79.9
-21.2
-21.9
-22.5
-21.1
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.6
3.4
4.3
4.4
3.9
28.0
29.6
29.7
29.4
24.6
25.3
25.3
25.5
-1.6
-2.8
-2.9
-2.3
1963: I...
II..
III.
IV..
395.1
399.1
404.4
411.2
369.2
372.0
377.4
381.3
25.9
27.1
27.0
29.9
58.4
58.4
60.2
59.7
77.9
80.2
82.8
87.1
-19.4
-21.8
-22.6
-27.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
3.4
4.3
4.2
5.8
28.8
30.5
31.0
32.6
25.4
26.3
26.8
26.9
-1.9
-2.6
-2.6
-4.1
1964: I...
II-.
III _
IV a
419.5
430.2
435.6
442.0
390.0
396.1
404.6
406.2
29.5
34.0
31.0
35.9
64.1
65.2
65.9
6
85.9 -21.8
87.2 -22.0
87.3 -21.4
90.5
(«)
1.5
1.6
1.7
2.2
7.7
5.7
7.0
6.5
34.5
33.7
35.7
35.7
26.8
27.9
28.7
29.2
-6.2
-4.1
-5.2
-4.3
See footnotes at end of table.
()
TABLE B-7.—Gross national product: Receipts and expenditures by major economic groups,
7929-64—Continued
[Billions of dollars]
Government
Receipts
Year or quarter
Net
receipts
1929..
1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..
1935..
1936..
1937..
1938..
1939..
1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964 3.
9.5
8.9
6.4
6.4
6.7
7.4
8.0
8.9
12.3
11.2
11.2
13.3
21.0
28.3
44.4
44.6
43.1
34.6
41.6
42.8
37.0
47.2
66.6
72.2
75.7
68.5
78.4
84.2
87.5
82.0
95.7
103.5
103.8
114.4
123.4
* 125. 7
Tax
and
nontax receipts
or accruals
11.3
10.8
9.5
8.9
9.3
10.5
11.4
12.9
15.4
15.0
15.4
17.7
25.0
32.6
49.2
51.2
53.2
51.1
57.1
59 2
56^4
69.3
85.5
90.6
94.9
90.0
101.4
109.5
116.3
115.1
130.2
140.6
145.6
157.8
168.9
173. 3
Surplus or Total Statis
deficit income tical
Trans- ( —) on or re- disfers, income
crepinter- and ceipts ancy
est
prodand
uct
subacsidies 2 count
Expenditures
Transfers,
interest,
and
subsidies '
1.7
1.8
3.1
2.5
2.6
3.1
3.4
4.1
3.1
3.8
4.2
4.4
4.0
4.3
4.8
6.5
10.1
16.5
15.4
16.5
19.4
22.1
18.9
18.4
19.2
21.5
23.0
25.3
28.7
33.1
34.4
37.1
41.8
43.4
45.4
47.5
Purchases Total
of
exgoods pendiand tures
services
8.5
9.2
9.2
8.1
8.0
9.8
10.0
11.8
11.7
12.8
13.3
14.1
24.8
59.7
88.6
96.5
82.9
30.5
28.4
34.5
40.2
39.0
60.5
76.0
82.8
75.3
75.6
79.0
86.5
93.5
97.2
99.6
108.0
116.3
122.6
128.7
10.2
11.0
12.3
10.6
10.7
12.8
13.3
15.9
14.8
16.6
17.5
18.5
28.8
64.0
93.4
103.1
92.9
47.0
43.8
51.0
59.5
61.1
79.4
94.4
102.0
96.7
98.6
104.3
115.3
126.6
131.6
136.7
149.8
159.8
168.0
176.2
1.7
1.8
3.1
2.5
2.6
3.1
3.4
4.1
3.1
3.8
4.2
4.4
4.0
4.3
4.8
6.5
10.1
16.5
15.4
16.5
19.4
22.1
18.9
18.4
19.2
21.5
23.0
25.3
28.7
33.1
34.4
37.1
41.8
43.4
45.4
47.5
1.0
-.3
-2.8
-1.7
-1.4
-2.4
-2.0
-3.0
.6
-1.6
-2.1
-.7
-3.8
-31.4
-44.2
-51.9
-39.7
4.1
13.3
8.2
-3.1
8.2
6.1
-3.9
-7.1
-6.7
2.9
5.2
1.0
-11.4
-1.5
3.9
-4.2
-1.9
.9
-2.9
104.2
92.1
75.4
57.7
55.0
64.2
72.7
81.6
91.0
84.8
0.3
-1.0
.8
.8
.9
.7
-.2
1.1
-.2
.5
1.2
125.4
.4
160.0
-.8
194.2 - 1 . 7
208.6
2.8
209.1
4.5
208.6
2.1
230.7
3.5
260.3
-.8
257.5
.5
-.7
285.3
1.2
327.7
1.4
345.6
1.3
364.1
.9
362.3
1.0
396.5
421.6 - 2 . 4
-.6
443.4
446.0 - 1 . 5
485.7 - 3 . 0
505.6 - 3 . 0
521.2 - 2 . 6
558.0 - 1 . 8
586.7 - 2 . 7
•624.4 «-2.1
Gross
national
product
or expenditure
104.4
91.1
76.3
58.5
56.0
65.0
72.5
82.7
90.8
85.2
91.1
100.6
125.8
159.1
192.5
211.4
213.6
210.7
234.3
259.4
258.1
284.6
329.0
347.0
365.4
363.1
397.5
419.2
442.8
444.5
482.7
502.6
518.7
556.2
583.9
622.3
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I . .
II...
III..
IV..
111.1
114.4
115.5
116.4
154.3
157.1
158.9
161.1
43.1
42.8
43.4
44.7
114.3
116.1
115.9
118.7
157.4
158.9
159.3
163.4
43.1
42.8
43.4
44.7
-3.1
-1.8
-.4
-2.2
547.7
556.3
560.7
567.4
-2.2
-2.9
-1.7
-.8
545.5
553.4
559.0
666.6
1963: I . . .
II...
III..
IV..
118.6
122.5
124.5
128.1
164.3
167.5
169.7
174.0
45.7
45.0
45.2
45.9
121.4
120.9
122.8
124.8
167.1
165.9
168.0
170.7
45.7
45.0
45.2
45.9
-2.8
1.6
1.7
3.3
573.7
581.7
590.7
600.8
-1.9
-4.3
-3.5
-1.8
571.8
577.4
587.2
599.0
1964: I . . . .
II ..
III..
IV s
125.2
124.1
126.6
172.7
171.1
173.9
(«)
47.5
47.0
47.3
48.2
125.2
129.6
129.5
130.3
172.7
176.6
176.9
178.5
47.5
47.0
47.3
48.2
(8)
-5.5
-3.0
(8)
610.4
621.0
629.8
(fl)
-1.6
-2.4
-1.4
(6)
608.8
618.6
628.4
633.5
1
Undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, capital consumption allowances,
and excess of wage accruals over disbursements,
2
Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid by
government, and subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises.
3 Preliminary estimates.
* Data for corporate profits are approximations for the year as a whole; data for fourth quarter are not
available.
All other data incorporating or derived from thesefiguresare correspondingly approximate.
4
Less than $50 million.
o Not available.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
199
TABLE B-8.—Gross private and government product, in current and 1964 prices, 7929-64
[Billions of dollars]
1964 prices <
Current prices
Year or quarter
Total
national
product
Gross private product»
Total Farm*
104.4
91.1
76.3
58.5
56.0
65.0
72.5
82.7
90.8
85.2
91.1
100.6
125.8
159.1
192.5
211.4
213.6
210.7
234.3
259.4
258.1
284.6
329.0
347.0
365.4
363.1
397.5
419.2
442.8
444.5
482.7
502.6
518.7
556.2
583.9
622.3
100.1
86.6
71.6
54.0
51.3
59.4
66.6
75.5
83.9
77.6
83.5
92.8
116.4
144.0
167.0
179.2
178.4
492.0
499.3
504.4
511.0
(6)
III.
IV-
545.5
553.4
559.0
566.6
8
( )
(6)
(•)
(8)
(*)
( fl )
1963: I . . .
II..
III.
IV-
571.8
577.4
587.2
599.0
515.1
519.9
528.8
538.9
(6)
(6)
(6)
(6)
(8)
(6)
(8)
(6)
1964:1...
II-.
III.
IV 5
608.8
618.6
628.4
633.5
547.3
556.0
564.3
568.4
(6)
(6)
(8)
(6)
(8)
(8)
(8)
19291930..
1931..
1932_.
1933..
193419351936..
1937..
1938..
1939194019411942194319441945—
19461947194819491950195119521953..
19541955195619571958..
1959196019611962-.
1963..
1964 «
217.6
242.0
238.7
263.8
301.7
316.0
333.6
330.8
363.5
382.8
403.8
402.6
438.6
455.3
467.9
501.7
525.7
559.0
9.8
7.7
6.2
4.4
4.6
4.3
6.9
6.3
8.1
6.7
6.5
6.8
9.4
13.4
15.3
15.7
16.2
19.3
20.7
23.8
19 3
20.5
23.6
22.8
20.9
20.3
19.6
19.3
19.4
21.3
20.0
20.9
21.2
21.5
21.7
21.1
Nonfarm
90.3
78.8
65.4
49.6
46.7
55.1
59.6
69.2
75.8
70.9
77.0
86.0
107.0
130.6
151.7
163.5
162.2
170.7
196.9
218.2
219.4
243.2
278.2
293.2
312.7
310.5
343.9
363.5
384.5
381.2
418.6
434.4
446.7
480.2
504.0
537.9
Gross
government
product'
Total
gross
national
product
4.3
217.8
198.1
183.7
156.8
153.0
167.6
183.3
208.7
219.5
210.2
227.3
246.3
287.1
330.9
374.1
401. 7
392.9
337.9
336.8
350.4
351.8
380.4
412.2
429.0
448.9
439.8
473.4
483.5
493.0
486.0
518.1
531.2
541.6
575.7
595.3
622.3
4.5
4.7
4.4
4.7
5.6
5.9
7.3
6.9
7.6
7.6
7.8
9.4
15.1
25.6
32.2
35.2
20.7
16.7
17.4
19.4
20.8
27.3
31.0
31.8
32.3
34.0
36.4
38.9
42.0
44.1
47.3
50.7
54.5
58.2
63.3
Gross private productl
Total Farm*
Nonfarm
15.5
14.1
16.5
15.5
15.3
12.7
15.5
13.2
16.6
16.7
16.7
16.4
17.'6
19.2
17.6
18.0
17.0
17.2
15.9
18.1
17.2
18.1
16.9
17.6
18.2
19.1
20.1
19.6
19.3
19.6
19.5
20.4
20.5
20.4
21.2
21.1
185.6
166.4
149.3
123.9
118.9
133.2
144.7
168.4
177.4
165.9
182.7
201.2
233.7
259.7
274.9
289.4
283.5
272.2
284.0
295.3
295.8
322.1
345.3
357.5
377.3
368.3
401.0
410.8
419.7
412.2
443.8
454.5
463.7
494.8
512.4
537.9
201.0
180.5
165.8
139.4
134.2
145.9
160.2
181.6
194.0
182.6
199.3
217.6
251.3
278.9
292.5
307.4
300.5
289.4
299.9
313.4
313.0
340.3
362.3
375.2
395.6
387.4
421.1
430.4
439.0
431.8
463.3
474.9
484.1
515.2
533.6
559.0
Gross
government
product*
16.8
17.6
17.8
17.4
18.7
21.6
23.1
27.1
25.5
27.7
27.9
28.7
35.8
52.0
81.6
94.3
92.4
48.4
36.9
37.0
38.8
40.2
49.9
53.8
53.3
52.4
52.3
53.1
53.9
54.3
54.8
56.3
57.5
60.5
61.8
63.3
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I . . .
(6)
(6)
1
53.6
54.1
54.7
55.6
567.0
574.1
578.0
583.4
506.9
513.6
517.3
522.8
(86)
()
(6)
56.7
57.5
58.4
60.1
586.9
589.8
598.0
606.2
525.8
528.3
535.9
543.9
(88)
()
(8)
(6)
61.5
62.6
64.1
65.1
612.9
620.2
626.6
629.4
550.2
557.2
563.0
565.3
(8)
(8)
(8)
(8)
(6)
(8)
15(88e)
(((66)))
((((888))))
60.0
60.5
60.7
60.6
61.1
61.5
62.1
62.3
62.6
63.0
63.6
64.0
Gross national product less compensation of general government employees, i. e., gross product accruing
from domestic business, households, and institutions and from the rest of the world.
a See Survey of Current Business, October 1958, for description of series and estimates in current and constant prices and implicit deflators for 1910-57.
aIncludes compensation of general government employees and excludes compensation of employees in
government enterprises. Government enterprises are those agencies of government whose operating costs
are at least to a substantial extent covered by the sale of goods and services, in contrast to the general activities of government which are financed mainly by tax revenues and debt creation. Government enterprises, in other words, conduct operations essentially commercial in character, even though they perform
them under governmental auspices. The Post Office and public power systems are typical examples of
government enterprises. On the other hand, State universities and public parks, where the fees and admissions cover only a nominal part of operating costs, are part of general government activities.
<
8 See footnote 1, Table B-2.
Preliminary estimates.
* Not available.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
200
T A B L E B-9.—Personal consumption expenditures,
1929-64
[Billions of dollars]
It
O
O
i operation
Services
ind oil
loth ing iind shoes 2
luding alcoeverages i
otal
¥
ther
a
<
ture and houseId ecjuipinent
1
utoi
otal
les and parts
ional consumF
penditures
otal
Year
or
quarter
Nondurable goods
03
"o
o
1
O
3
ousj
Durable goods
|
H
o
W
o
1
l
O
w
1929
79.0
9.2
3.2
4.8
1.2
37.7
19.5
9.4
1.8
7.0
32.1
11.4
4.0
2.6 14.0
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
71.0
61.3
49.3
46.4
51.9
7.2
5.5
3.6
3.5
4.2
2.2
1.6
.9
1.1
1.4
3.9
3.1
2.1
1.9
2.2
1.1
.9
.6
.5
.6
34.0
28.9
22.8
22.3
26.7
18.0
14.7
11.4
10.9
12.2
8.0
6.9
5.1
4.6
5.7
L.7
L.5
L.5
L.5
L.6
6.3
5.7
4.8
5.3
7.2
29.8
26.9
22.9
20.7
21.0
11.0
10.3
9.0
7.9
7.6
3.9
3.5
3.0
2.8
3.0
2.2 12.7
1.9 11.2
1.6
9.3
1.5
8.5
1.6 8.8
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
56.3
62.6
67.3
64.6
67.6
5.1
6.3
6.9
5.7
6.7
1.9
2.3
2.4
1.6
2.2
2.6
3.2
3.6
3.1
3.5
.7
.8
1.0
.9
1.0
29.3
32.8
35.2
34.0
35.1
13.6
15.2
16.4
15.6
15.7
6.0
6.6
6.8
6.8
7.1
L.7
L.9
2.1
2.1
2.2
7.9
9.1
9.8
9.5
10.1
21.9
23.5
25.1
25.0
25.8
7.6
7.9
8.4
8.8
9.0
3.2
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
10.3
11.1
10.7
11.0
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
71.9
81.9
89.7
100. 5
109.8
7.8
9.7
7.0
6.6
6.8
2.7
3.4
.7
.8
.8
3.9
4.9
4.7
3.9
3.8
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.9
2.2
37.2
43.2
51.3
59.3
65.4
16.7
19.4
23.7
27.8
30.6
7.4
8.8
10.8
12.3
14.5
16.7
18.7
26.9
29.0
31.5
34.7
37.7
9.3
11.0
13.4
14.6
2.3
2.6
2.1
1.3
1.4
10.0
10.8
11.3
11.9
4.0
4.3
4.8
5.2
5.9
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.4
3.7
11.4
12.3
13.1
14.7
16.3
1945..._
121.7
147.1
165.4
178.3
181.2
8.1
1946
1947
1948
1949
15.9
20.6
22.7
24.6
1.0
3.9
6.3
7.4
9.8
4.6
8.7
11.0
11.9
11.5
2.5
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.3
73.2
84.8
93.4
98.7
96.6
34.1
40.7
45.8
48.2
46.4
16.5
18.2
18.8
20.1
19.3
1.8
3.0
3.6
4.4
5.0
20.8
22.9
25.2
26.0
25.9
40.4
46.4
51.4
56.9
60.0
12.4
13.8
15.6
17.6
19.3
6.4
6.7
7.4
7.9
8.4
4.0
5.1
5.5
6.0
6.1
17.5
20.8
23.0
25.4
26.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
195.0
209.8
219.8
232.6
238.0
30.4
29.5
29.1
32.9
32.4
13.0
11.6
11.0
14.0
13.4
14.0
14.2
14.1
14.7
14.8
3.4
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
99.8
110.1
115.1
118.0
119.3
47.4
53.4
55.8
56.6
57.7
19.6
21.1
21.9
21.9
21.9
5.4 27.4
6.0 . 29.5
6.7 30.7
7.5 31.8
8.0 31.7
64.9
70.2
75.6
81.8
86.3
21.2
23.2
25.4
27.5
29.1
9.3
10.1
10.8
11.7
12.1
6.3
6.9
7.4
8.0
7.9
28.1
29.9
32.0
34.6
37.1
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
256.9 39.6
269.9 38.5
285.2 40.4
293. 2 37.3
313.5 43.6
18.3
15.8
17.1
13.9
18.1
16.6
17.4
17.4
17.4
18.9
4.8
5.3
5.8
6.0
6.6
124.8
131.4
137.7
141.6
147.1
59.2
62.2
65.2
67.4
68.1
23.4
24.5
25.4
25.7
27.5
10.4
10.5
11.1
33.4
35.2
36.7
38.0
40.5
92.5
100.0
107.1
114.3
122.8
30.7
32.7
35.2
37.7
39.6
13.5
14.8
15.8
16.9
18.1
39.9
43.8
47.0
50.6
10.0 55.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 K__
328.2
337.3
356. 8
375.0
399.2
18.8
17.1
20.6
22.7
24.2
19.1
19.3
20.2
21.4
24.0
7.1
7.3
7.6
8.0
8.8
151.8
155.4
162.0
167.5
177.1
69.7
71.0
73.9
70.0
80.0
28.1
28.7
29.9
30.7
33.2
11.7
11.9
12.3
12.8
13.6
42.3
43.8
45.8
48.0
50.4
131.5
138.3
146.4
155.3
165.1
41.9
44.2
46.5
48.9
51.5
19.5
20.4
21.6
22.7
24.4
10.7
10.7
11.3
11.7
12.2
59.5
63. 0
67.0
72.0
77.1
44.9
43.7
48.4
52.1
57.0
8.8
9.6
9.4
8.3
8.6
9.0
9.2
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962:
350.5
354.0
358.5
364.0
47.4
47.7
48.4
50.2
19.7
20.3
20.5
21.8
20.1
19.9
20.3
20.6
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.7
159. 5
161.0
162.9
164.4
72.7
73.5
74.5
75.0
29.6
29.7
30.0
30.2
12.2
12.2
12.3
12.5
45.1
45.6
46.1
46.6
143.6
145.3
147.2
149.5
45.6
46.2
46.8
47.5
21.3
21.3
21.7
22.0
11.1
11.2
11.4
11.5
65.6
66.5
67.3
68.5
369.2
372.0
377.4
381.3
51.1
51.5
52.2
53.6
22.4
22.6
22.6
23.2
20.8
21.0
21.6
22.3
7.8
7.9
8.0
8.2
166.0
166.6
168.6
168.9
75.6
75.9
76.1
76.5
30.4
30.1
31.3
30.9
12.7
12.8
12.9
13.0
47.3
47.8
48.3
48.6
152.1
153.9
156.6
158.8
48.0
48.6
49.2
49.8
22.4
22.4
22.9
23.0
11.6
11.7
11.7
11.8
70.0
71.3
72.7
74.1
390.0
396.1
404.6
IV 4.... 406.2
55.9
57.0
58.7
56.2
24.3
24.1
25.6
22.7
23.1
24.2
24.2
24.4
8.5 172.9
8.8 175.3
8.8 179.5
9.C 180.8
78.3
79.0
81.1
81.4
32.1
33.2
33.8
33.6
13.3
13.5
13.5
13.9
49.2
49.6
51.0
51.8
161.1
163.8
166.4
169.2
50.5
51.1
51.8
52.4
23.5
24.0
24.8
25.3
12.0
12.2
12.2
12.4
75.1
76.4
77.7
79.1
I
II
III
IV
1963:
I
II
III
IV
1964:
I
II
III
i Quarterly data are estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
Includes standard clothing issued to military personnel.
Includes imputed rental value of owner-occupied dwellings.
* Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (except as noted).
J
J
201
TABLE B-10.—Gross private domestic investment, 1929-64
[Billions of dollars]
Change in business
inventories
Fixed investment
Total
Producers' durable
New construction >
private
equipment
domestic inResi
Other
»
vest- Total
Total Nondential
farm Farm
ment
NonTotal nonTotal farm Farm
farm
NonTotal farm Farm
Year or
quarter
1929
16.2
14.6
8.7
3.6
5.1
4.8
5.8
5.2
0.6
1.7
1.8
-0.2
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
10.3
5.5
.9
1.4
2.9
10.6
6.8
3.5
3.0
4.0
6.2
4.0
1.9
1.4
1.7
2.1
1.6
.6
.5
.6
4.1
2.4
1.2
1.0
1.1
3.9
2.3
1.2
.9
1.0
4.5
2.8
1.6
1.6
2.3
4.0
2.6
1.4
1.5
2.1
.5
.3
.1
.1
.3
-.4
-1.3
-2.6
-1.6
-1.1
-.1
-1.6
-2.6
-1.4
-.3
.3
(3)
-.3
-1.3
6.3
8.4
11.7
6.7
9.3
5.4
7.4
9.5
7.6
8.9
2.3
3.3
4.4
4.0
4.8
1.0
1.6
1.9
2.0
2.7
1.3
1.7
2.5
2.0
2.1
1.2
1.6
2.3
1.8
1.9
3.1
4.2
5.1
3.6
4.2
2.7
3.6
4.5
3.1
3.7
.4
.5
.6
.5
.5
.9
1.0
2.2
-.9
.4
.4
2.1
1.7
-1.0
.3
.5
-1.1
.5
.1
.1
1940
1941
1942
„
1943 .. .
1944
13.2
18.1
9.9
5.6
7.1
11.0
13.6
8.1
6.4
8.2
5.5
6.6
3.7
2.3
2.7
3.0
3.5
1.7
2.5
3.1
2.0
1.4
1.9
2.2
2.8
1.7
1.2
1.6
5.5
6.9
4.3
4.0
5.4
4.9
6.1
3.7
3.5
4.7
2.2
4.5
1.8
-.8
-1.0
1.9
4.0
.7
-.6
-.6
.3
.5
1.2
-.2
-.4
1945
1946
1947
1948 .
1949
10.4
28.1
31.5
43.1
33.0
11.5
21.8
31.9
38.4
36.0
3.8
11.0
15.3
19.5
18.8
1.1
4.8
7.5
10.1
2.7
6.3
7.7
9.3
9.2
2.5
5.4
6.3
7.8
7.7
.3
.9
1.4
1.5
1.5
7.7
10.7
16.7
18.9
17.2
6.9
9.8
14.9
16.4
14.4
1.8
2.6
2.9
-1.1
6.4
-.5
4.7
-3.1
6.4
1.3
3.0
-2.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
50.0
56.3
49.9
50.3
48.9
43.2
46.1
46.8
49.9
50.5
24.2
24.8
25.5
27.6
29.7
14.1
12.5
12.8
13.8
15.4
10.1
12.3
12.7
13.8
14.3
8.5
10.4
10.8
12.1
12.7
1.6
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.6
18.9
21.3
21.3
22.3
20.8
16.2
18.4
18.6
19.5
18.5
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.3
6.8
10.2
3.1
.4
-1.6
6.0
9.1
2.1
1.1
-2.1
.8
1.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
63.8
67.4
66.1
56.6
72.7
58.1
62.7
64.6
58.6
66.2
34.9
35.5
36.1
35.5
40.2
18.7
17.7
17.0
18.0
22.3
16.2
17.8
19.0
17.4
17.9
14.6
16.3
17.5
15.9
16.2
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.7
23.1
27.2
28.5
23.1
25.9
20.6
25.0
26.2
20.3
23.1
2.5
2.2
2.3
2.8
2.9
5.8
4.7
1.6
-2.0
5.5
5.1
.8
-2.9
6.5
.3
-.4
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964 4
71.8
68.8
79.1
82.0
87.7
68.3
66.9
73.3
77.6
84.0
40.7
41.0
44.2
46.6
48.9
21.1
21.1
23.6
25.2
26.0
19.7
19.8
20.6
21.3
22.9
18.0
18.2
19.0
19.8
21.4
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
27.6
25.9
29.0
31.0
35.1
25.1
23.3
26.3
27.9
31.5
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.5
3.5
1.9
5.9
4.4
3.7
3.2
1.5
5.3
3.9
3.6
.3
.3
.6
.5
.1
1935
1936 .
1937
1938
1939
-.
.
.9
.8
0.3
-.5
(3)
-1.8
1.7
.5
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I
II.
111...
IV.—
77.4
78.9
80.2
79.9
70.5
72.9
75.1
74.5
42.5
44.1
45.5
44.9
22.5
23.5
24.4
24.0
20.6
20.6
21.1
20.9
18.3
19.0
19.5
19.3
.6
.6
.6
.6
28.1
28.8
29.6
29.7
25.4
26.1
26.9
26.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.0
6.9
6.1
5.1
5.4
6.4
5.5
4.4
4.8
0.5
.6
.7
.6
1963: I . . .
II..
III..IV—
77.9
80.2
82.8
87.1
74.3
76.6
78.6
80.7
44.7
45.9
47.2
48.3
24.3
25.1
25.4
26.2
20.4
20.8
21.9
22.1
18.8
19.2
20.3
20.6
L.6
L.6
L.6
L. 5
29.6
30.7
31.4
32.4
26.6
27.7
28.5
29.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.6
3.6
4.2
6.4
3.0
3.2
3.7
6.0
.6
.5
.5
.4
1964: I
II..-.
III..IV *._
85.9
87.2
87.3
90.5
83.4
83.5
84.5
84.5
49.2
48.9
48.9
48.6
26.9
26.2
25.7
25.0
22.3
22.7
23.1
23.6
20.8
21.1
21.6
22.1
L. 5
L. 5
1.5
L.5
34.2
34.6
35.6
35.9
30.7
31.2
32.1
32.2
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.6
2.5
3.7
2.8
6.0
2.2
3.4
2.7
6.3
1
.3
.1
-.4
Revisions In series on new construction shown in Table B-36 have not yet been incorporated into these
»Includes petroleum and natural gas well drilling, which are excluded from estimates in Table B-36.
> Less than $50 million.
* Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
202
TABLE B—11.—National income by type of income, 1929-64
[Billions of dollars]
ComTotal
na- sation
tional of eminploycome 1 ees »
Year or quarter
Business and proCorporate profits
fessional income
and inventory
and inventory
valuation
valuation
Inadjustment
adjustment
come Rental
inof come
In- InIn- Net
inof
come ven- farm
ven- terest
pro- perCorof tory prietory
porate valusons
3
valuuninTotal profits ation
Total corpo- ation tors
before adrated adtaxes * justenter- just-
prises ment
1929
1930
1931.
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
87.8
75.7
59.7
42.5
40.2
49.0
57.1
64.9
73.6
67.6
72.8
81.6
104.7
137.7
170.3
182.6
181.2
180.9
198.2
223.5
217.7
241.9
_
279.3
292.2
305.6
301.8
330.2
350.8
366.9
367.4
400.5
414.5
426.9
455.6
478.5
7 509.8
_
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956 .
1957
1958
1959
-
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964«
.
-
51.1
46 8
39 7
31 1
29 5
34.3
37 3
42 9
47 9
45 0
48.1
52 1
64.8
85 3
109.6
121 3
123.2
117.7
128 8
141.0
140 8
154.2
180 3
195.0
208.8
207.6
223.9
242.5
255.5
257.1
278.5
293.6
302.2
323.1
340.3
361.7
8.8
7.4
5.6
3.4
3.2
4.6
5.4
6.5
7.1
6.8
7.3
8.6
6.7
5.0
3.1
3.7
4.6
5.4
6.6
7.1
6.6
7.5
8.4
8.5
10.9
13.9
16.8
18.0
19.0
21.3
19.9
22.4
22.7
23.5
26.0
26.9
27.4
27.8
30.4
32.1
32.7
32.5
35.1
34.2
35.3
36.6
37.6
39.3
0.1
.8
.6
.3
-.5
-.1
—. l
-.1
.2
_ o
(5)
11.5 - . 6
14.3 - . 4
17.0 - . 2
18.1 - . 1
19.1 - . 1
23.0 —1.7
21.4 - 1 . 5
22.8 - . 4
.5
22.2
24.6 - 1 . 1
26.3 - . 3
.2
26.7
27.6 - . 2
27.8
30.6 - . 2
32.6 - . 5
33.0 - . 3
32.6 - . 1
35.2 - . 1
34.2
35.3 (5)
36.6
37.6
39.3 (*)
ment
6.0
4.1
3.2
1.9
2.4
2.4
5.0
4.0
5.6
4.3
4.3
4.6
6.5
10.0
11.4
11.5
11.8
15.3
15.5
17.8
12.9
14.0
16.3
15.3
13.3
12.7
11.8
11.6
11.8
13.5
11.4
12.0
12.9
13.2
13.0
12.7
5.4
10.1
48
6.6
1.6
3.8
2 7 -2.0
2.0 - 2 . 0
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.5
4.5
5.1
1.1
2.9
5.0
6.2
4.3
5.7
9.1
14.5
19.7
23.8
5 4 23.0
5.6 18.4
6.2 17.3
6.5 23.6
7.3 30.8
8.3 28.2
9.0 35.7
9.4 41.0
10.2 37.7
10.5 37.3
10.9 33.7
10.7 43.1
10.9 42.0
11.9 41.7
12.2 37.2
11.9 47.2
12.1 44.5
12.2 44.1
12.2 48.4
12.3 50.8
12.4 57.0
9.6
3.3
-.8
0.5
6.4
3.3
2.4
-3.0
1.0
.2 - 2 . 1
1.7 - . 6
3.1
—.2
5.7
-.7
6.2 (5)
3.3
1.0
6.4
-.7
9.3 —.2
17.0 - 2 . 5
20.9 —1.2
24.6 - . 8
23.3 —.3
19.0 —.6
22.6 - 5 . 3
29.5 —5.9
33.0 - 2 . 2
26.4
1.9
40.6
42.2
36.7
38.3
34.1
44.9
44.7
43.2
37.4
47.7
44.3
44.2
48.2
51.3
57.2
—5.0
—1.2
1.0
-1.0
-.3
-1.7
—2.7
-1.5
-.3
—.5
.2
— l
.3
6.0
5.8
5.4
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.3
3.7
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.8
4.2
4.8
5.5
6.3
7.1
-.2
8.2
9.1
10.4
11.7
13.4
14.8
16.4
18.1
20.1
22.1
24.4
26.8
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962- I
II
III
IV
1963: I
II
III
IV
1964- I
II
----.
III
IV 6
447 2 316.6
454.3 322.4
457.8 325.3
463.2 328.0
467.9 332.7
474.6 338.1
481.9 342.7
490.0 347.7
498.4 352.5
507.1 358.6
514.5 364.8
370.6
(*)
36.3
36.6
36.7
36.9
37.1
37.3
37.8
38.3
38.6
39.1
39.6
39.9
36.3
36.6
36.7
36.8
37.0
37.4
37.9
38.3
38.6
39.3
39.7
39.8
(5)
.1
-.1
-.1
-.2
-.1
.1
13.7
13.3
13.0
12.8
13.2
12.8
12.9
13.2
12.6
12.6
12.6
12.9
12.2
12.2
12.2
12.2
12.3
12.3
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.5
47.1
48.0
48.3
50.3
49.1
50.2
51.4
53.1
56.4
57.9
58.1
47 2 —0 1
47.9
.1
48.1
.9
49.4
.2
48.9
.
9
51.1
2
51.3
54.3
56.6 - . 2
57.9 - . 1
.1
58.0
21.3
21.8
22.3
22.9
23.5
24.0
24.7
25.4
25.9
26.5
27.1
27.6
1
National income is the total net income earned in production. It differs from gross national product
mainly in that it excludes depreciation charges and other allowances for business and institutional consumption
of durable capital goods, and indirect business taxes. See Table B-12.
2
Wages and salaries and supplements to wages and salaries (employer contributions for social insurance
and to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; directors' fees; pay of the
military reserve; and a few other minor items).
»Excludes income resulting from net reductions of farm inventories and gives credit in computing
income to net additions to farm inventories during the period. Data for 1929-45 differ from those shown in
Table B-63 because of revisions not yet incorporated into the national income accounts.
* See Table B-65 for corporate tax liability, corporate profits after taxes, and footnote 3.
« Less than $50 million.
6
Preliminary estimates.
* Data for corporate profits are approximations for the year as a whole; data for fourth quarter are not
available.
All other data incorporating or derived from these figures are correspondingly approximate.
8
Not available.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
203
TABLE B-12.—Relation of gross national product and national income, 1929-64
[Billions of dollars]
Plus:
Less:
Subsidies
Equals: less
Net jurrent Indirect business Busina- surplus
ness
taxes
tional
Depreof govtransprod1
ernfer
Total ciation Other uct
charges
ment
State payenter- Total Fedand ments
eral
prises
local
Less: Capital consumption allowances
Year or quarter
Gross
national
product
Sta- Equals:
tisti- Nacal tional
dis- income
crepancy
1929..
104.4
8.6
7.7
95.8
-0.1
7.0
1.2
5.8
0.6
0.3
87.8
1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..
91.1
76.3
58.5
56.0
65.0
8.5
8.2
7.6
7.2
7.1
7.7
7.6
7.0
6.7
6.6
82.6
68.1
50.9
48.8
57.9
-.1
7.2
6.9
6.8
7.1
7.8
1.0
.9
.9
1.6
2.2
6.1
6.0
5.8
5.4
5.6
.5
.6
.7
.7
.6
-1.0
.8
.8
.9
.7
75.7
59.7
42.5
40.2
49.0
1935..
1936..
1937..
19381939..
72.5
82.7
90.8
85.2
91.1
7.2
7.5
7.7
7.8
7.8
6.7
6.7
6.9
6.9
7.1
.7
65.3
75.2
83.0
77.4
83.3
8.2
8.7
9.2
9.2
9.4
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.3
6.0
6.4
6.8
6.9
7.0
.6
.6
.6
.4
.5
-.2
1.1
-.2
.5
1.2
57.1
64.9
73.6
67.6
72.8
1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
100.6
125.8
159.1
192.5
211.4
8.1
9.0
10.2
10.9
12.0
7.3
8.1
9.2
9.9
10.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.2
92.5
116.8
149.0
181.6
199.4
10.0
11.3
11.8
12.7
14.1
2.6
3.6
4.0
4.9
6.2
7.4
7.7
7.7
7.8
8.0
.4
.5
.5
.5
.5
.8
.4
-.8
-1.7
2.8
81.6
104.7
137.7
170.3
182.6
1945..
1946194719481949..
213.6
210.7
234.3
259.4
258.1
12.5
10.7
13.0
15.5
17.3
11.2
9.0
11.1
13.1
15.1
1.3
1.7
2.0
2.4
2.2
201.0
200.0
221.3
244.0
240.8
.9
-.2
-.2
-.2
15.5
17.3
18.6
20.4
21.6
7.1
7.9
7.9
8.1
8.2
8.4
9.4
10.8
12.3
13.5
.5
.6
.7
.7
.8
4.5
2.1
3.5
-.8
.5
181.2
180.9
198.2
223.5
217.7
1950..
1951..
19521953..
1954..
284.6
329.0
347.0
365.4
363.1
19.1
22.0
24.0
26.5
28.8
16.5
18.8
20.9
23.1
25.2
2.6
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.6
265.5
307.0
323.0
338.9
334.3
.2
.2
-.2
-.4
-.2
23.7
25.6
28.1
30.2
30.2
9.0
9.5
10.5
11.2
10.1
14.7
16.1
17.6
19.0
20.1
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.3
__ n
l!2
1.4
1.3
.9
241.9
279.3
292.2
305.6
301.8
1955..
1956..
195719581959..
397.5
419.2
442.8
444.5
482.7
32.0
34.4
37.4
38.6
41.0
27.9
30.5
33.4
35.2
37.3
4.0
3.9
4.0
3.4
3.7
365.5
384.8
405.3
405.9
441.7
1.0
1.1
.4
32.9
35.7
38.2
39.3
42.6
11.0
11.6
12.2
11.9
13.0
21.8
24.1
26.0
27.4
29.6
1.5
1.6
1.8
1.8
2.1
1.0
-2.4
-.6
-1.5
-3.0
330.2
350.8
366.9
367.4
400.5
1960..
1961196219631964 3
502.6
518.7
556.2
583.9
622.3
43.0
44.5
48.7
50.8
53.4
39.1
40.6
44.6
46.7
49.0
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.4
459.6
474.1
507.5
533.1
568.8
46.4
49.0
52.8
55.9
59.4
14.0
14.1
15.1
15.6
16.4
32.5
34.9
37.8
40.2
43.0
2.2 - 3 . 0
2.4 - 2 . 6
2.4 - 1 . 8
2.4 - 2 . 7
2.5 <-2.1
414.5
426.9
455.6
478.5
* 509.8
0.9
.8
.5
1.6
1.6
1.0
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I . . .
II.III.
IV.
1963: I . . .
II...
III.
IV.
1964: I
II—
Ill—
IV »..
545.5
553.4
559.0
566.6
48.0
48.6
49.0
49.4
(•)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(8)
497.6
504.8
510.0
517.1
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
51.9
52.6
53.1
53.8
15.0
15.1
15.0
15.1
36.9
37.6
38.1
38.7
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
-2.2
-2.9
-1.7
-.8
447.2
454.3
457.8
463.2
571.8
577.4
587.2
599.0
50.0
50.5
51.2
51.7
(5)
(s)
(8)
(8)
(5)
(5)
(5)
(5)
521.8
526.9
536.0
547.3
1.3
1.1
.9
.7
54.6
55.3
56.1
57.3
15.4
15.5
15.7
15.9
39.2
39.7
40.4
41.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
-1.9
-4.3
-3.5
-1.8
467.9
474.6
481.9
490.0
608.8
618.6
628.4
633.5
52.5
53.1
53.7
54.4
(5)
(55)
()
(5)
(s)
(8)
(5)
(5)
556.3
565.5
574.8
578.9
1.0
.7
.9
.9
57.9
59.0
60.1
60.7
15.9
16.4
16.6
16.7
42.1
42.6
43.4
44.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
-1.6
-2.4
-1.4
(8)
498.4
507.1
514.5
1
Accidental damage tofixedcapital and capital outlays charged to current account.
* Less than $50 million.
3 Preliminary estimates.
< Data for corporate profits are approximations for the year as a whole; data for fourth quarter are not
available. All other data incorporating or derived from thesefiguresare correspondingly approximate.
»Not available.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
204
TABLE B-l 3.—Relation of national income and personal income, 1929—64
[Billions of dollars]
PlUJ5:
Less:
Venr or q u a r t e r
CorpoExcess
rate
of
Contri- wage
National profits butions
inincome and
acfor
vensocial cruals
tory
over
valu- insurdisance burseation
adjustments
ment
Equals:
Government
transfer
payments
to
persons
Net
interest
paid
by
government
Dividends
Business
transfer
payments
Personal
income
1929
87.8
10.1
0.2
0.9
1.0
5.8
0.6
85.8
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
75.7
59.7
42.5
40.2
49.0
6.6
1.6
-2.0
—2.0
1.1
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
1.0
2.1
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
5.5
4.1
2.6
2.1
2.6
.5
.6
.7
.7
.6
76.9
65.7
50.1
47.2
53.6
57.1
64.9
73.6
67.6
72.8
2.9
5.0
6.2
4.3
5.7
.3
.6
1.8
2.0
2.1
1.8
2.9
1.9
2.4
2.5
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
2.9
4.5
4.7
3.2
3.8
.6
.6
.6
.4
.5
60.2
68.5
73.9
68.6
72.9
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
81.6
104.7
137.7
170.3
182.6
91
14.5
19.7
23.8
23.0
2.3
2.8
3.5
4.5
5.2
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
3.1
1.3
1.3
1.5
2.1
2.8
4.0
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.7
.4
.5
.5
.5
.5
78.7
96.3
123.5
151.4
165.7
1945
1946
'947
'948
1949
181.2
180.9
198.2
223.5
217.7
18.4
17.3
23.6
30.8
28.2
6.1
6.0
5.7
5.2
5.7
5.6
10.9
11.1
10.5
11.6
3.7
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.7
5.8
6.5
7.2
7.5
.5
.6
.7
.7
.8
171.2
179.3
191.6
210.4
208.3
241.9
279.3
292.2
305.6
301.8
35.7
41.0
37.7
37.3
33.7
6.9
8.2
8.6
8.7
9.7
14.3
11.6
12.0
12.9
15.0
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.4
9.2
9.0
9.0
9.2
9.8
.8
1.0
?
1.4
8
228.5
256.7
273.1
288.3
289.8
330.2
350.8
366.9
367.4
400.5
43.1
42.0
41.7
37.2
47.2
11.0
12.6
14.5
14.8
17.6
16.0
17.2
20.1
24.5
25.4
5.4
5.7
6.2
6.2
7.1
11.2
12.1
12.6
12.4
13.7
5
L.6
88
2.1
310.2
332.9
351.4
360.3
383.9
414.5
426.9
455. 6
478.5
2
509. 8
44.5
44.1
48.4
50.8
2 57.0
20.6
21.4
23.9
26.9
28.7
27.3
31.3
32.3
34.3
35.7
7.8
7.4
8.0
8.6
9.2
14.5
15.2
16.5
18.0
19.8
2.2
2.4.
2.4
2.4
2.5
401.3
417.6
442.4
464.1
491.4
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
__.
-
-. -.
.-
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
19641
0.2
-.2
.1
-.1
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962- I
II
III
IV
447.2
454.3
457.8
463.2
47.1
48.0
48.3
50.3
23.5
23.9
24.1
24.3
32.0
31.9
32.2
33.4
7.6
7.8
8.1
8.3
16.1
16.4
16.5
17.1
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
434.7
441.0
444.5
449.7
1963: I
II
III
IV
467.9
474.6
481.9
490.0
49.1
50.2
51.4
53.1
26.2
26.7
27.1
27.5
34.5
33.8
34.0
34.7
8.4
8.4
8.7
8.8
17.2
17.7
17.9
19.1
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
455.2
460.2
466.3
474.5
1964- I
II
III-.
IV i
498.4
507.1
514.5
(3)
56 4
57.9
58.1
(3)
?8. 0
28.4
29.0
29.3
35.9
35.5
35.5
35.9
9.1
9.3
9.2
9.3
19.4
19.8
20.0
20.2
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
480.9
487.9
494.5
502.2
0.1
-.1
i Preliminary estimates.
* Data for corporate profits are approximations for the year as a whole; data for fourth quarter are not
available. All other data incorporating or derived from these figures are correspondingly approximate.
»Not available.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
757-981 O—-65
205
TABLE B-14.—Sources of personal income, 7929-64
[Billions of dollars]
Wage and salary disbursements l
Year or quarter
Total
personal
income Total
Proprietors»
income2
Commodityproducing
Other
Distrib- Service Gov- labor Busiindustries
utive indus- ern- income ness
indus- tries ment
and Farm3
Manu- tries
professional
Total facturing
1929-
85.8
50.4
21.5
16.1
15.6
8.4
4.9
0.6
8.8
6.0
193019311932..
19331934-
76.9
65.7
50.1
47.2
53.6
46.2
39.1
30.5
29.0
33.7
18.5
14.3
9.9
9.8
12.1
13.8
10.8
7.7
7.8
9.6
14.5
12.5
9.8
8.8
9.9
8.0
7.1
5.8
5.2
5.7
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
6.1
.5
.5
.4
.4
7.4
5.6
3.4
3.2
4.6
4.1
3.2
1.9
2.4
2.4
19351936193719381939-
60.2
68.5
73.9
68.6
72.9
36.7
41.9
46.1
43.0
45.9
13.5
15.8
18.4
15.3
17.4
10.8
12.4
14 6
11.8
13.6
10.7
11.8
13.2
12.6
13.3
5.9
6.5
7.1
6.8
7.1
6.5
7.9
7.5
8.2
8.2
.5
.6
.6
.6
.6
5.4
6.5
7.1
6.8
7.3
5.0
4.0
5.6
4.3
4.3
19401941194219431944-
78.7
96.3
123.5
151.4
165.7
49.8
62.1
82.1
105.6
117.0
19.7
27.5
39.2
49.0
50.4
15.6
21.7
30.9
40.9
42.9
14.2
16.3
18.0
20.1
22.7
7.5
8.1
9.0
9.9
10.9
8.4
10.2
16.0
26.6
33.0
.7
.7
.9
1.1
1.5
8.4
10.9
13.9
16.8
18.0
4.6
6.5
10.0
11.4
11.5
19451946194719481949-
171.2
179.3
191.6
210.4
208.3
117.6
111.9
122.8
135.2
134.4
45.9
46.0
54.3
60.3
56.9
38.2
36.5
42.5
46.5
43.9
24.8
30.9
35.2
38.8
39.0
12.0
14.3
16.0
17.3
17.9
34.9
20.6
17.3
18.8
20.5
1.8
1.9
2.3
2.7
3.0
19.0
21.3
19.9
22.4
22.7
11.8
15.3
15.5
17.8
12.9
19501951195219531954-
228.5
256.7
273.1
288.3
289.8
146.4
170.7
184.9
198.1
196.3
63.5
74.9
80.5
88.1
84.1
49.4
58.3
63.0
69.9
66.1
41.3
46.0
48.7
51.8
52.3
19.3
21.1
22.6
24.3
25.5
22.3
28.8
32.9
33.9
34.4
3.8
4.8
5.3
6.0
6.2
23.5
26.0
26.9
27.4
27.8
14.0
16.3
15.3
13.3
12.7
19551956195719581959..
310.2
332.9
351.4
360.3
383. 9
210.9
227.6
238.5
239.8
258.5
91.4
98.7
102.2
97.9
107.2
72.3
77.7
80.6
76.7
84.7
55.8
60.3
63.4
63.8
68.2
27.8
30.5
32.8
34.8
37.7
36.0
38.0
40.2
43.2
45.3
7.1
8.1
9.1
9.4
10.4
30.4
32.1
32.7
32.5
35.1
11.8
11.6
11.8
13.5
11.4
I9601961..
1962-.
1963..
1964«
401.3
417.6
442.4
464.1
491.4
271.3
278.8
297.1
312.1
331.6
110.4
110.8
118.5
123.3
129.8
87.4
87.5
94.2
98.0
103.0
71.8
72.9
76.6
80.3
84.9
40.7
43.4
46.4
49.3
52.6
48.4
51.8
55.6
59.2
64.2
11.0
11.6
12.3
13.1
14.1
34.2
35.3
36.6
37.6
39.3
12.0
12.9
13.2
13.0
12.7
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I...
II...
III..
IV..
434.7
441.0
444.5
449.7
291.2
296.6
299.2
301.6
116.2
118.7
119.3
119.8
92.4
94.2
94.9
95.2
75.1
76.4
77.3
77.8
45.3
46.3
46.9
47.2
54.6
55.1
55.7
56.8
12.0
12.2
12.4
12.6
36.3
36.6
36.7
36.9
13.7
13.3
13.0
12.8
1963: I...
II...
III..
IV..
455.2
460.2
466.3
474.5
305.3
310.1
314.3
318.8
120.7
122.9
124.1
125.5
96.1
97.7
98.5
99.9
78.6
79.7
81.0
81.9
48.2
49.0
49.9
50.2
57.8
58.5
59.4
61.3
12.8
13.0
13.2
13.4
37.1
37.3
37.8
38.3
13.2
12.8
12.9
13.2
1964: I...
II..
III.
IV«
480.9
487.9
494.5
502.2
323.2
328.7
334.3
340.0
126.7
128.9
130.8
132.8
100.6
102.4
103.8
105.2
82.7
84.1
85.7
87.2
51.3
52.4
52.9
53.9
62.4
63.4
64.9
66.1
13.7
14.0
14.2
14.5
38.6
39.1
39.6
39.9
12.6
12.6
12.6
12.9
See footnotes at end of table.
206
TABLE B-14.—Sources of personal income, 1929-64—Continued
[Billions of dollars]
Transfer payments
Year or
quarter
Rental
income Divi- Personal
of per- dends interest
income Total
sons
State
Old-age
and sur- unemVetployvivors
erans'
ment in- benefits
insursurance
ance
benefits benefits
Less:
Personal
contributions
social
Other forinsurance
Nonagricultural
personal
income *
1929
5.4
5.8
7.4
1.5
0.6
0.9
0.1
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
4.8
3 8
2.7
20
1.7
5.5
4 1
2.6
2 1
2.6
6.9
6.9
6.6
62
6.1
1.5
2.7
2.2
2.1
2.2
.6
16
.8
5
.4
.9
1.1
1.4
16
1.8
.1
2
.2
2
.2
70.8
60 9
46.9
43 6
49.8
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.6
2.7
2.9
4.5
4.7
3.2
3.8
5.9
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.8
2.4
3.5
2.4
2.8
3.0
.4
.5
1.9
.6
.5
.5
1.9
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.0
.2
.2
.6
.6
.6
53.9
63.2
67.0
62.8
67.1
5.8
5.8
3.1
3.1
0.1
.1
.5
.3
.5
.5
2.0
2.2
.7
.8
.5
2.2
1.2
.5
.9
2.2
2.4
1.8
2.2
72.6
88.0
111.5
137.6
151.6
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
..
2.9
3.5
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
4.0
4.5
0)
0.4
.3
4.5
4.3
5.8
3.1
5.1
5.4
4.5
4.7
5.8
6.2
3.0
3.6
.2
.2
5.6
4.7
6.9
6.2
.3
.4
5.8
6.5
7.2
7.5
7.6
8.2
8.7
9.4
11.4
11.8
11.3
12.4
.4
.5
.6
.7
1.1
.8
.8
1.7
9.2
9.0
9.0
15.1
12.6
13.2
14.3
16.2
1.0
1.9
2.2
1.4
.8
1.0
3.0
1.0
9.8
10.3
11.2
12.1
13.4
14.6
3.6
2.0
4.9
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.8
4.9
1.4
4.2
.1
.1
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
6.2
6.5
7.3
8.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
9.0
9.4
10.2
10.5
10.9
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
10.7
10.9
11.9
12.2
11.9
11.2
12.1
12.6
12.4
13.7
15.8
17.5
19.6
21.0
23.5
17.5
18.8
21.9
26.3
27.5
5.7
1.4
7.3
8.5
10.2
1.8
3.9
2.5
4.5
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964 o
12.1
12.2
12.2
12.3
12.4
14.5
15.2
16.5
18.0
19.8
25.8
27.5
30.0
32.9
36.0
29.5
33.6
34.7
36.7
38.2
11.1
12.6
14.3
15.2
16.0
2.8
4.0
2.9
2.8
4.5
4.8
4.8
5.0
9.2
2.6
2.8
6.8
6.7
5.8
5.1
2.7
2.3
3.2
3.8
4.2
4.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
7.9
6.0
6.2
2.9
3.4
3.8
6.6
3.9
6.7
4.6
7.0
5 2
4.2
7.5
4.4
4.6
8.4
9.4
10.3
5.8
5.2
77.7
156.8
161.2
172.8
189.2
192.1
211.3
237.0
254.3
271.5
273.8
7.9
295.0
317.9
336.1
343.0
368.6
11.1
12.2
12.7
13.7
14.4
9.2
9 6
10.3
11.8
12.7
385.1
400.4
424.9
446 6
474.2
6.7
6.9
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
II—
III...
IV...
12.2
12.2
12.2
12.2
16.1
16.4
16.5
17.1
29.0
29.6
30.4
31.2
34.4
34.3
34.6
35.8
13.6
14.3
14.5
14.8
3.3
2.7
2.7
3.2
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.9
12.7
12.6
12.7
12.9
10.1
10.3
10.4
10.4
416.6
423.2
427.3
432.5
1963: I
II—
III—
IV—
12.3
12.3
12.4
12.4
17.2
17.7
17.9
19.1
31.9
32.4
33.4
34.2
37.0
36.3
36.5
37.2
14.8
15.3
15.4
15.4
3.0
2.6
2.6
3.0
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.1
14.2
13.3
13.4
13.6
11.5
11.7
11.9
12.1
437.5
442.9
449.0
456.9
1964: I
II—
III..
IV«.
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.5
19.4
19.8
20.0
20.2
35.0
35.7
36.3
36.9
38.3
38.0
38.0
38.4
15.6
16.1
16.1
16.1
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.6
5.2
5.3
5.2
5.3
14.8
14.2
14.2
14.3
12.3
12.5
12.8
13.0
463.9
470.8
477.6
484.9
1962: I
1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of em"
ployees in Table B-ll in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and excludes the excess
of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2 Excludes income resulting from net reductions of inventories and gives credit in computing income to
net additions to inventories during the period.
• Data for 1929-45 differ from those in Table B-73 because of revisions by the Department of Agriculture
not yet incorporated into the national income accounts.
< Nonagricultural income
personalincome
inc
come isispersonal
exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterp rises,
farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations.
» Less than $50 million.
• Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
207
TABLE B-15.—Disposition of personal income, 1929-64
Year or quarter
Less:
Personal Personal
income
taxes >
Percent of disposable personal income
Less:
Equals: Personal
DisposEquals:
conable
Personal Personal
personal sumption
saving consump- Personal
income expendition extures
saving
penditures
Billions of dollars
Percent
1929..
85.8
2.6
83.1
79.0
4.2
95.1
5.1
1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..
76.9
65.7
50.1
47.2
53.6
2.5
1.9
1.5
1.5
1.6
74.4
63.8
48.7
45.7
52.0
71.0
61.3
49.3
46.4
51.9
3.4
2.5
-.6
-.6
.1
95.4
96.1
101.2
101.5
99.8
4.6
3.9
-1.2
-1.3
.2
1935..
1936..
1937..
1938..
1939..
60.2
68.5
73.9
68.6
72.9
1.9
2.3
2.9
2.9
2.4
58.3
66.2
71.0
65.7
70.4
56.3
62.6
67.3
64.6
67.6
2.0
3.6
3.7
1.1
2.9
96.6
94.6
94.8
98.3
96.0
3.4
5.4
5.2
1.7
4.1
1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
78.7
96.3
123.5
151.4
165.7
2.6
3.3
6 0
17.8
18.9
76.1
93.0
117.5
133.5
146.8
71.9
81.9
89.7
100.5
109.8
4.2
11.1
27.8
33.0
94.5
88.1
76.3
75.3
74.8
5.5
11.9
23.7
24.7
25.1
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
171.2
179.3
191.6
210.4
208.3
20.9
18.7
21.5
21.1
18.7
150.4
160.6
170.1
189.3
189.7
121.7
147.1
165.4
1783
181.2
28.7
13.5
4.7
11.0
8.5
80.9
91.6
97.2
94.2
95.5
19.1
8.4
2.8
5.8
4.5
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
228.5
256.7
273.1
288.3
289.8
20.8
29.2
34.4
35.8
32.9
207.7
227.5
238.7
252.5
256.9
195.0
209.8
219.8
232.6
238.0
12.6
17.7
18.9
19.8
18.9
93.9
92.2
92.1
92.1
92.6
6.1
7.8
7.9
7.8
7.4
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
310.2
332.9
351.4
360.3
383.9
35.7
40.0
42.6
42.3
46.8
274.4
292.9
308.8
317.9
337.1
256.9
269.9
285.2
293.2
313.5
17.5
23.0
23.6
24.7
23.6
92.1
92.4
92.2
93.0
6.4
7.9
7.6
7.8
7.0
1960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964 2.
401.3
417.6
442.4
464.1
51.4
52.9
57.9
61.6
59.5
349.9
364.7
384.6
402.5
431.8
328.2
337.3
356.8
375.0
399.2
21.7
27.3
27.8
27.5
32.6
93.8
92.5
92.8
93.2
92.5
6.2
7.5
7.2
6.8
7.5
491.4
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I—.
II..
III.
IV_.
434.7
441.0
444.5
449.7
56.1
57.6
58.5
59.3
378. 5
383.4
386.0
390.4
350.5
354.0
358.5
364.0
28.0
29.4
27.5
26.4
92.6
92.3
92.9
93.2
7.4
7.7
7.1
1963:1—.
II...
III.
IV..
455.2
460.2
466.3
474.5
60.1
61.1
61.9
63.3
395.1
399.1
404.4
411.2
369.2
372.0
377.4
381.3
25.9
27.1
27.0
29.9
93.4
93.2
93.3
92.7
6.6
6.8
6.7
7.3
1964:I.__.
II...
III_.
IV 2
480.9
487.9
494.5
502.2
61.4
57.7
58.8
60.2
419.5
430.2
435.6
442.0
390.0
396.1
404.6
406.2
29.5
34.0
31.0
35.9
93.0
92.1
92.9
91.9
7.0
7.9
7.1
8.1
1
Includes also such items as fines and penalties.
2 Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
208
T A B L E B - 1 6 . — Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption
expenditures, in current and 1964 prices, 1929-64
Total disposable
personal income
Year or quarter
(billions of
dollars)
Per capita disposable personal
income (dollars)
Total personal
consumption
expenditures
(billions of
dollars)
Per capita personal consumption expenditures (dollars)
Population
(thousands)
Current
prices
1964
prices !
Current
prices
1964
prices ]
1,273
79.0
147.3
648
1,209
121,875
1,180
1,127
966
938
995
71.0
61.3
49.3
46.4
51.9
138.7
134.4
122.4
119.5
125.6
576
494
395
369
410
1,125
1,083
981
951
992
123,188
124,149
124,949
125,690
126,485
458
ol7
551
505
1,084
1,211
1,244
1,166
1,254
56.3
62.6
67.3
64.6
67.6
133.3
146.6
151.8
149.3
157.6
442
488
522
497
516
1,046
1,143
1,178
1,148
1,203
127,362
128,181
128,961
129,969
131,028
175.6
200.7
227.0
236.6
246.6
576
697
871
977
1,060
1,329
1,505
1,683
1,731
1,781
71.9
81.9
89.7
100.5
109.8
165.9
176.8
173.4
178.1
184.6
544
614
665
735
794
1,255
1,326
1,285
1,302
1,334
132,122
133,402
134,860
136,739
138,397
150.4
160.6
170.1
189.3
189.7
243.8
240.8
230.6
242.6
245.3
1,075
1,136
1,180
1,291
1,271
1,743
1,704
1,600
1,655
1,644
121.7
147.1
165.4
178.3
181.2
197.3
220.6
224.2
228.5
234.3
870
1,040
, 148
,216
,214
1,411
1,560
1,556
1,559
1,570
139,928
141,389
144,126
146,631
149,188
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
207.7
227.5
238.7
252.5
256.9
264.4
271.8
279.5
292.5
294.8
1,369
1,474
1,521
1,582
1,582
1,743
1,761
1,781
1,833
1,815
195.0
209.8
219.8
232.6
238.0
248.3
250.7
257.3
269.5
273.1
,286
,360
1,400
1,458
1,466
1,638
1,625
1,639
1,689
1,682
151,689
154,283
156,947
159,559
162,388
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
274.4
292.9
308.8
317.9
337.1
313.3
329.0
337.1
340.8
356.9
1,661
1,741
1,803
1,826
1,904
1,896
1,956
1,968
1,957
2,015
256.9
269.9
285.2
293.2
313.5
293.3
303.2
311.3
314.2
331.9
1,555
1,604
1,665
1,684
1,771
1,775
1,802
1,818
1,805
1,875
165, 276
168.225
171,278
174,154
177,080
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964
349.9
364.7
384.6
402.5
431.8
365.3
377.9
394.9
408.1
431.8
1,936
1,985
2,060
2,125
2,248
2,021
2,057
2,116
2,155
2,248
328.2
337.3
356.8
375.0
399.2
342.7
349.5
366.4
380.2
399.2
1,817
1,836
1,911
1,980
2,079
1,897
1,902
1,963
2,008
2,079
180.684
183, 756
186,656
189,375
192,072
Current
prices
1964
prices l
Current
prices
1929.
83.1
155.1
682
1930.
1931.
1932.
1933
1934.
74.4
63.8
48.7
45.7
52.0
145.3
139.9
120.8
117.9
125.8
604
514
389
364
411
1935
1936.
1937.
193vS.
1939.
58.3
66.2
71.0
65.7
70.4
138.1
155.1
160.2
151.7
164.2
1940.
1941.
1942.
1943
1944.
76.1
93.0
117.5
133.5
146.8
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1964
prices
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I...
IIIII.
IV.
378.5
383.4
386.0
390.4
390.3
394.3
396.0
399.1
2,039
2,058
2,064
2,079
2,102
2,117
2,118
2,125
350.5
354.0
358.5
364.0
361.4
364.2
367.8
372.1
1,888
L,900
1,917
L,938
1,947
1,954
1,967
1,981
185,648
186,312
187,045
187,816
1963: I...
IIIII.
IV.
395.1
399.1
404.4
411.2
402.4
405.5
409.7
414.8
2,097
2,111
2,131
2,159
2,136
2,145
2,159
2,178
369.2
372.0
377.4
381.3
376.0
377.9
382.3
384.6
1,959
L,968
L989
2,002
1,995
1,999
2,015
2,019
188,444
189,047
189,756
190,498
1964: I _ II..
III.
IV«
419.5
430.2
435.6
442.0
421.5
430.5
435.0
440.4
2,195
2,243
2,264
2,288
2,205
2,245
2,261
2,280
390.0
396.1
404.6
406.2
391.8
396.4
404.1
404.6
2,040
2,066
2,103
2,103
2,049
2,067
2,100
2,095
191,120
191,744
192,434
193,145
1 Estimates in current prices divided by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures on a 1964 base.
2 See Table B-2 for explanation.
» Total expenditures in 1964 prices divided by population.
* Population of the United States including armed forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly
data are for middle of period.
»Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census) and
Council of Economic Advisers.
209
TABLE B-17.—Number and money income of families and unrelated individuals, 1947-63
All families
Year
Number
(millions)
Poor families *
Median
income (1962
prices)
Number
(millions)
Incidence
Families
1947_
1948.
1949.
37.2
38.6
39.3
$4,117
4,015
3,951
11.9
12.7
13.4
32
33
34
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
39.9
40.6
40.8
41.2
41.9
4,188
4,328
4,442
4,809
4,705
12.6
11.9
11.4
10.7
11.5
32
29
28
26
28
1955.
19561957.
1958.
1959.
42.8
43.4
43.7
44.2
45.1
5.004
5,337
5,333
5,329
5,631
10.6
9.7
25
23
23
23
22
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
45.4
46.3
47.0
47.4
5,759
5,820
5.956
6,175
9.6
9.8
9.3
9.0
21
21
20
19
Individuals
1947—_
1948—
1949—1950—
1951
1952
1953—
10.1
Poor individuals 2
All individuals
Number
(millions)
9.8
9.9
Median
income (1962
prices)
Number
(millions)
Incidence
8.2
8.4
9.0
$1,366
1.325
4.4
4.6
4.8
53
55
53
9.4
9.1
9.7
9.5
385
432
629
599
413
5.0
4.7
4.6
4.6
5.0
53
52
48
49
52
1954
1956-.1957-1958--1959-.--
9.7
10.3
10.8
10.7
497
609
654
602
649
4.9
4.7
4.9
5.2
5.1
50
48
47
48
47
1960---.
1961..-.
10.9
11.2
11.0
11.2
786
792
753
779
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
46
45
45
44
1955—
1962—
1963-—
1
Poverty is defined to include all families with total money income of less than $3,000 in 1962 prices;
these are also referred to as poor families. Incidence of poverty is measured by the percent that poor
families
are of all families.
2
Poverty is defined to include all unrelated individuals with total money income of less than $1,500 in
1962 prices. Incidence of poverty is measured by the percent that poor unrelated individuals are of all
unrelated individuals.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning in 1959.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
210
TABLE B-18.—Financial saving by individuals, 1939-64 1
[BilHons of dollars]
Securities
Currency Savand
ings
Total bank
hares
U.S. Other
desav- govTotal
ings ern- 3
posits
bonds ment
Year or quarter
1939
4.2
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
4.2
__.
_
—
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964"
1962- I
II
III
IV
1963: I . . .
II
III
IV
1964- I
II
III
IV io
10.5
29.3
38 7
41.4
37.3
14.5
3.0
2.9
4.8
10.9
16.2
17.5
19.0
10.6
0.1
-.4
2.6
.3
.4
.3
10.3
6 14.1
15.7
.9
9.9
1.1
1.2 - 1 . 4
2.2
1.3
3.0
1.3
2.3
1.6
6.7
2.7
2.1
—1.8
—1.4
1.3
3.5
5.9
1.7
2.3
7.0
4.7
3.3
40
10.9
13.0
10.8
9.5
6.8
14.1
16.2
16.7
13.2
2.0
5.4
3.3
4.7
4.9
10.2
4.4
4.7
5.2
5.4
5.2
6.4
7.2
8.2
2.7
8.3
15.9
21.2
22.3
27.9
6.6
45
64
2.3
6.6
34
6.8
5.5
8.7
18.0
17.5
17.9
9.4
10.0
11.8
11.4
4.2
3 3
60
5.4
3.2
23
5.5
6.5
2.1
28
17
3.5
3.2
3 3
1.7
3.7
6.5
7.6
8.3
5.4
2.0
3.7
5.9
6.3
-0.8
2.5
3.3
2.0
.9
3.4
3.4
6.2
5.0
5.0
Private
nsurCor- ance
reporate serves
and
other
—
-0.9
-0.6
1.7
0.1
1.3
.9
2.8
8.0
-.8
.4
2.3
3.3
4.6
4.2
-.4
-.5
1.8
2.1
2.5
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.7
.1
.1
.1
.2
.6
.9
.3
.3
.4
.6
1.3
1.9
2.6
3.9
5.0
5.1
3.5
3.5
3.6
2.3
1.1
4.2
11.1
11.8
6.9
1.0 - 2 . 6
-.2
2.0
1.6
.5
.1
1.5
.3
-.5
.1
.8
A
1.2
.8
—. 6
1.1
1.7
1.2
3.6 - 1 . 1
0.8 - 0 . 2
1.0
.7
—3.0
— 4 —1 0
—.1
.1
.9
.8
.1
—.2
.2
3.2
4.2
4.7
4.0
.6
2.3 —2.3
2.8 —.8
2.4
.4
2.6
.3
6.8
6.9
3.7
1.0
6.4
73
4.4
37
.2
-.3
.6
.4
8.8
1.0
6.1
3.3
2.5
.9
.6
-.8
-.1
.9
1.4
4.8
5.0
1.6
1.9
4.4
3.2
.6
2.2
1.8
2.6
5.2
5.5
5.5
5.1
2.1
2.3
2.8
3.1
2.6
3.1
3.7
3.2
12.1
10.5
2.5
.6
5.3
5.5
.6
2.3
9.4
13.2
-.9
5.5
4.1
3.4
—. 4
.5
.9 - 2 . 2
2.0 - 2 . 8
4.2 - 2 . 0
5.8
6.4
6.6
7.4
10.9
11.9
13.4
15.9
16.0
-.1
1.5
1.2
1.1
3.0
4.4
5.8
-.2
1.4
1.1
9
2.2
3.8
2.2
1.0
1.2
11
1.1
1.3
1 0
-.1
1 0
2.9
28
1.5
.1
3 9
4.4
3.5
3 8
4.0
4.6
3.7
-.2
.3
.7
0.5
3.9
4.1
—. 6
1.5
.2
.4
.9
Mort- Con- Secugage sumer rities
debts debt' loans'*
1.6
—.8
Q
-.7
-1.2
Less Increase in
debt
2.1
1.2
3.7
3.2
4.4
-.1
-.3
.7
-.1
-.4
1.2
2.0
.6 - 1 . 1
1
-.2
Government
insurance
and
pension
reserves8
0.7
-1.9
- . 5 -1.0
9! 7 - 1 . 8 10.8
.9
-.9
Noninsured
pension
funds
2
1.9
.6
.1
-.4
-.6
-•7
17
1.7
1.4
1 5
1.7
1.9
3.3
3.8
4.4
4.4
4.7
5.1
1.3
A
1.6
1.3
.4
1.5
1.7
.1
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.3
3.2
1.9
2.2
1.2
-1.0
.3
8.0
.2
6.1
4.1
.3
6
1.4
1.5
.4
.2
4.2
.3
1.5
5.0
6.3
6.3
1.0
1.1
.9
.5
-.5
3.6 - 1 . 1
4.1
4.1
-. 1
n
25
1.5
3.0
-.7
-.4
2
1.8
-1.3
.9
.8
.5
-.6
2.6
1.6
.6
.1
2.8
.3
1 Individuals' saving, in addition to personal holdings, covers saving of unincorporated business, trust
funds, and nonprofit institutions in the forms specified.
1 Includes shares in savings and loan associations and shares and deposits in credit unions.
» "Other government" includes U.S. Government issues (except savings bonds), State and local government securities, and beginning 1951, nonguaranteed Federal agency issues, which are included in "corporate
and other" for years prior to 1951.
* Includes insured pension reserves.
5 Includes Social Security funds, State and local retirement systems, etc.
8 Mortgage debt to institutions on one- to four-family nonfarm dwellings.
' Consumer debt owed to corporations, largely attributable to purchases of automobiles and other durable consumer goods, although including some debt arising from purchases of consumption goods. Policy
loans
on Government and private life insurance have been deducted from those items of saving.
8
Change in bank loans to brokers, dealers, and others for the purpose of purchasing or carrying securities.
» Less than $50 million.
i° Preliminary.
NOTE.—In addition to the concept of saving shown above, there are other concepts of individuals' saving,
with varying degrees of coverage, currently in use. The personal saving estimates of the Department of
Commerce are derived as the difference between disposable personal income and expenditures. Conceptually, Commerce saving includes the following items not included in Securities and Exchange Commission
saving: housing, farm and unincorporated business investment in inventories and plant and equipment,
net of depreciation, and increase in debt. Government insurance is excluded from the Commerce saving
series. For a reconciliation of the two series, see Securities and Exchange Commission Statistical Bulletin,
July 1964, and Survey of Current Business, July 1964.
Theflow-of-fundssystem of accounts of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System includes
capital investments as well as financial components of saving and covers saving of Federal, State, and local
governments, businesses, financial institutions, and consumers. While the Federal Reserve's estimates of
consumer saving in financial form are similar to the Securities and Exchange Commission estimates of
individuals' saving, there are some statistical and conceptual differences in the two sets of data.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included for all periods.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
211
TABLE B—19.—Sources and uses of gross saving, 1929—64
[Billions of dollars]
Gross private saving and government surplus or
deficit on income and product transactions
Government surplus
or deficit (-)
Private saving
Year or quarter
Total
Total
Personal
saving
Gross investment
Federal
State
and
local
1.0
1.2
-0.1
17.0
16.2
0.8
0.3
-.3
.3
-2.1
-1.5
-1.3
-2.9
-.5
-.2
(2)
.5
11.0
5.7
1.1
1.5
3.3
10.3
5.5
.9
1.4
2.9
.7
.2
.2
.2
.4
-1.0
.8
.8
.9
.7
-2.6
-3.5
-.2
-2.0
-2.2
.6
.5
.7
.4
.1
6.2
8.3
11.8
7.8
10.2
6.3
8.4
11.7
6.7
9.3
-.1
-.1
.1
1.1
-.2
1.1
-.2
.5
1.2
-1.4
-.7
-3.8 -5.1
-31.4 -33.2
-44.2 -46.7
-51.9 -54.6
1.8
2.5
2.7
14.7
19.2
9.7
3.4
5.0
13.2
18.1
9.9
5.6
7.1
1.5
1.1
2
-2.2
-2.1
—l! 7
2.8
9.0
32.7
40.4
45.0
33.5
10.4
28.1
31.5
43.1
33.0
-1.4
4.6
8.9
1.9
.5
4.5
2.1
3.5
-.8
.5
47.8
56.6
49.7
48.3
48.5
50.0
56.3
49.9
50.3
48.9
-2.2
-.7
1.2
1.4
1.3
63.4
68.8
69.6
56.6
70.4
63.8
67.4
66.1
56.6
72.7
-.4
1.5
3.5
—1
-2.3
-1.5
-3.0
73.2
71.8
81.5
84.8
92.6
71.8
68.8
79.1
82.0
87.7
1.4
3.0
2.4
2.8
5.0
-3.0
-2.6
-1.8
-2.7
4-2.1
1929.
16.7
15.7
4.2
11.9
4.9
.3
.6
2.6
12.2
7.7
2.0
1.9
5.0
3.4
2.5
-.6
-.6
.1
8.8
5.2
2.7
2.6
4.9
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
6.4
7.2
12.1
7.3
9.0
8.4
10.1
11.5
8.9
11.2
2.0
3.6
3.7
1.1
2.9
6.3
6.5
7.8
7.8
8.3
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
13.9
18.8
10.5
5.1
2.3
14.6
22.6
41.9
49.3
54.2
4.2
11.1
27.8
33.0
36.9
10.4
11.5
14.1
16.3
17.2
1945
1946
1947.
1948
1949.
4.5
I 30.6
36.8
45.9
33.0
44.3
26.5
23.6
37.6
36.1
28.7
13.5
4.7
11.0
8.5
15.6 -39.7 1-42.3
4.1
2.2
13.1
13.3
12.2
18.9
8.0
26.6
8.2
27.6 - 3 . 1 - 2 . 5
2.6
1.9
1.1
.3
40.3
49.2
52.2
54.1
54.4
12.6
17.7
18.9
19.8
18.9
27.7
31.5
33.2
34.3
35.5
9.2
6.4
-3.9
-7.4
-5.8
-1.0
-.3
1953
1954
48.5
55.3
48.3
47.0
47.6
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959-
62.4
71.3
70.2
58.1
73.4
59.6
66.1
69.2
69.5
74.9
17.5
23.0
23.6
24.7
23.6
42.1
3.8
5.7
2.0
-9.4
-1.1
-1.0
1950...
1951
_..
1952
1900
1961
1962
1963
19643
. .
72.3
78.
85.3
86.7
87. r,
4 94.7 4 97.6
76.2
74.
83.3
Statistical
discrepancy
Gross
busi- Total
ness
saving
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
. .
__.
Gross
private Net fordomes- eign inTotal tic in- vestvest- ment l
ment
-2.8
-1.7
-1.4
-2.4
-2.0
-3.0
.6
-1.6
-2.1
8.2
6.1
-3.9
-7.1
-6.7
2.9
43.0
5.2
45.6 | 1.0
44.8 - 1 1 . 4
51.3 - 1 . 5
3.5
21.7
50.7
3.9
27.3
51.2 - 4 . 2 - 4 . 3
27. S
57. 5 - 1 . 9 - 4 . 1
.9 - 1 . 5
27. 5 59.1
32. 6 \* 65. 0 4-2.9 4-5.3
n
.3
-.5
-1.0
-2.1
.4
.1
2.1
2.4
4 2.4
.2
-.2
-2.0
.4
Q
-.4
1.0
-2.4
-.6
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I
II
III
IV
81.1
84.7
84.8
83.1
84.3
86.4
85.2
85.3
28.0
29.4
27.5
26.4
56.2
57.1
57.7
58.9
-3.1
-1.8
-.4
-2.2
-4.4
-4.6
-2.9
-4.5
1.2
2.8
2.5
2.3
78.9
81.8
83.1
82.3
77.4
78.9
80.2
79.9
1.6
2.8
2.9
2.3
-2.2
1963: I
II
III
IV
81.6
87. 2
89.0
92.9
84.4
85.6
87.2
89.6
25.9
27.1
27.0
29.9
58.4
58.4
60.2
59.7
-2.8
1.6
1.7
3.3
-4.8
-1.0
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.7
79.7
82.9
85.4
91.1
77.9
80.2
82.8
87.1
1.9
2.6
2.6
4.1
-1.9
-4.3
-3.5
-1.8
1964: I
II
III
IV 3
93.7
93.7
93.9
(6)
93.7
99.2
96.9
(6)
29.5
34.0
31.0
35.9
64.1
65.2
65.9
(6)
(5)
-5.5
-3.0
(6)
-2.4
-7.8
-5.2
(6)
2.4
2.3
2.3
92.1
91.3
92.5
94.7
85.9
87.2
87.3
90.5
6.2
4.1
5.2
4.3
-1.6
-2.4
-1.4
n
!6
(8)
1
Net exports of goods and services less foreign net transfers by Government.
2 Deficit of $35 million.
Preliminary estimates.
4 Data for corporate profits are approximations for the year as a whole; data for fourth quarter are not
available.
All other data incorporating or derived from these figures are correspondingly approximate.
5
Less than $50 million.
6
Not available.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
8
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
212
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
TABLE B-20.—Population by age groups: Estimates, 1929-64, and projections, 1970-85
[Thousands of persons]
Age (years)
July 1
Total
Under 14
14 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 44
45 to 64
65 and
over
Estimates:
1929
121,770
33,864
13,801
10,696
35,859
21,076
6,475
1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..
123,077
124,040
124,840
125,579
126,374
33,639
33,443
33,141
32,742
32,295
13,936
13,981
14,014
14,070
14,162
10,915
11,003
11,077
11,152
11,238
36,309
36,654
36,988
37,319
37,662
21,573
22,031
22,473
22,933
23,435
6,705
6,928
7,147
7,363
7,582
1935-.
1936-.
1937..
1938..
1939..
127,250
128,053
128,825
129,825
130,880
31,900
31,478
31,091
30,844
30,670
14,295
14,441
14,559
14,679
14,749
11,317
11,375
11,411
11,453
11, 519
37,987
38,288
38,954
39,354
23,947
24,444
24,917
25,387
25,823
7,804
8,027
8,258
8,508
8,764
1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
132,122
133,402
134,860
136,739
138,397
30,521
30,545
30,765
31,389
31,827
14,764
14,661
14,497
14,327
14,207
11,690
11,807
11,955
12,064
12,062
39,868
40,383
40,861
41,420
42,016
26,249
26,718
27,196
27,671
28,138
9,031
9,288
9,584
9,867
10,147
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948-.
1949.
139,928
141,389
144,126
146,631
149,188
32,360
32,906
34,499
35,865
37, 238
13,887
13,560
13,472
13, 215
13,009
12,036
12,004
11,814
11,794
11,700
42,521
43,027
43,657
44,288
44,916
29,064
29,498
29,931
30,405
10,494
10,828
11,185
11,538
11,921
1950..
19511952.
1953.
1954.
151,689
154,283
156,947
159,559
162,388
38,595
40,032
41,491
42,979
44,585
12,837
12,769
12,878
13,081
13,309
11,614
11,462
11,266
11,005
10,762
45,503
45,977
46,361
46,638
46,890
30,831
31,292
31,755
32,235
32,757
12,310
12,751
13,194
13,623
14,084
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959. .
165,276
168,225
171,278
174,154
177,080
46,166
47,644
48,902
50,305
51,714
13,553
13,955
14,711
15,204
15,648
10,633
10, 558
10,554
10,698
10,921
47,076
47,220
47, 242
47,125
46,999
33,297
33,865
34,450
35,010
35,567
14, 549
14,982
15,419
15,812
16, 231
1960 i..
1961 L.
1962 L.
1963 »..
1964...
180,676
183,742
186,591
189, 278
192,072
53,350
53,936
54,634
55,237
55,853
16,216
17,558
18,462
19,030
19,763
11,112
11,404
11,875
12,600
13,144
47,132
47,064
46,991
46,960
46,969
36,208
36,767
37,321
37,883
38,483
16,659
17,013
17,308
17,567
17,861
Projections: 2
1970: Series A..
Series D_.
211,430
205,886
61,739 } 22,940
56,195
17,104
48,216
41,860
19,571
1975: Series A..
Series D_.
230,415
218,855
56,809 } 24,801
19,057
53,597
43,419
21,172
1980: Series A.
Series D .
252,056
233,140
77,383
60,148
25,929
24,248 } 20,624
61,784
43,250
23,086
1985: Series A.
Series D .
275,622
247,953
85,766
64,681
29,299
23,702
21,472 } 71,094
20,485
42,984
25,007
1 Estimates for 1960-63 differ slightly from those shown in Table B-16 because of recent revisions. Total
population figures on an unrevised basis were used in this table since detail for the age groups was not available on the revised basis and since the projections were based on the unrevised figures.
2 Two of four series projected by the cohort method and based on different assumotions with regard to
completed fertility, which moves gradually toward a level of 3,350 children per 1,000 women for Series A
and 2,450 children per 1,000 women for Series D. For further explanation of method of projection and for
additional data, see Population Estimates, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 286, July 1964.
NOTE.—Data for Armed Forces overseas included beginning 1940 and Alaska and Hawaii beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
213
TABLE B-21.—Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-64
Civilian labor force
Noninstitutional
Year or month
population i
Total
labor
force Armed
(includ- forces
1
ing
Total
armed
forces) 1
Total
labor
force
as
Employment
percent
of
nonUnem- instituployAgri- Nontional
agri- ment 2 popuculTotal
cullation
tural tural
3
Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over
Old definitions: 2
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934.___
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
___
1940...
1941
1942_._
1943_._
1944
1945
1946
1947
260 49,180 47,630 10,450 37,180
1,550
50,080
50,680
51, 250
51, 840
52,490
260
260
250
250
260
49,820
50,420
51,000
51, 590
52,230
45,480
42,400
38,940
38, 760
40,890
10,340
10,290
10,170
10,090
9,900
35,140
32,110
28,770
28,670
30, 990
4,340
8,020
12,060
12,830
11,340
53,140
53, 740
54,320
54,950
55,600
270
300
320
340
370
52, 870
53,440
54, 000
54,610
55,230
42,260
44, 410
46,300
44, 220
45,750
10,110
10,000
9,820
9,690
9,610
32,150
34, 410
36,480
34, 530
36,140
10,610
9,030
7,700
10,390
56,180
540 55,640
57, 530 1,620 55,910
60,380 3,970 56, 410
64,560 9,020 55, 540
66,040 11,410 54,630
47, 520
50, 350
53,750
54, 470
53,960
9,540 37,980
9,100 41.250
9,250 44, 500
8,120
5,560
2,660
1,070
670
56.0
56.7
58.8
62.3
63.1
105,530 65,300 11,440 53,860 52,820 8,580 44,240 1,040
_. 106, 520 60,970 3,450 57, 520 55, 250 8,320 46,930 2,270
107, 608 61,758 1,590 60,168 58,027 8,266 49, 761 2,142
61.9
57.2
57.4
_..
_._
_...
_
_
_
New definitions: 2
8
8
(3)
100,380
101, 520
102,610
103,660
104,630
_
_
107,608
108,632
109,773
61,758
62,898
63,721
1,590 60,168 57, 812
1,456 61,442 59,117
1,616 62,105 58,423
110,929
112,075
113,270
115,094
116,219
64,749
65,983
66,560
67,362
67,818
1,650
3,099
3,594
3,547
3,350
63,099
62,884
62, 966
63,815
64,468
59,748
60, 784
61,035
61,945
60,890
117, j
_. 118,'
_ 120,445
121,950
123,366
70,387
70,744
71,284
71,946
3,048
2,857
2,798
2,637
2,552
65, 848
67,530
67, 946
68,647
69,394
62,944
64,708
65,011
63,966
65, 581
124,878
72,820
2,514 70,306 66,392
125, 368
127,852
130,117
130,081
132,124
134,143
73,126
74,175
74,839
74,681
75,712
76,971
2,514
2,572
2,828
2,827
2,737
2,738
70,612
71,603
72,011
71,854
72,975
74,233
66,681
66, 796
67,999
67,846
1963: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
131,253
131,414
131,589
131, 739
131,865
132,036
73,323
73,999
74,382
74,897
75,864
77,901
2,716
2,724
2,732
2,736
2,737
2,736
70,607
71,275
71,650
72,161
73,127
75,165
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
132,196
132,345
132, 497
132, 682
132,853
133,025
77, 917
77,167
75,811
76,086
76,000
75,201
2,744
2,749
2,749
2,742
2,739
2,740
75,173
74,418
73,062
73, 344
73,261
72,461
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952_
1953.
1954
1955_._
1956_
1957
1958
1959
I960
-
__
„
_—
-
Including
Alaska
Hawaii
1960
1961
1962«
_
1962
1963
1964
45,390
8,950 45,010
8,256 49, 557
7,960 51,156
8,017 50,406
2,356
2,325
57.4
57.9
58.0
7,497
7,048
6,792
6,555
6,495
52.251
53,736
54,243
55, 390
54,395
3,351
2,099
1,932
1,870
3,578
58.4
58.9
58.8
58.5
58.4
6,718
6,572
6,222
5,844
56,225
58,135
58, 789
58,122
59,745
2,904
2,822
2,936
4,681
3,813
58.7
59.3
58.7
58.5
58.3
5,696 60,697
3,913
58.3
70.357
5,723
5,463
5,255
5,190
4,946
4,761
60,958
61,333
62,744
62,657
63,863
65, 596
3,931
4,806
4,012
4,007
4,166
3,876
58.3
58.0
57.5
57.4
57.3
57.4
65,935
66.358
67,148
68, 097
69,061
70,319
4,206
4,049
4,337
4,673
5,178
5,954
61,730
62,309
62, 812
63,424
63, 883
64,365
4,672
4,918
4, 501
4,063
4,066
4,846
55.9
56.3
56.5
56.9
57.5
59.0
70,851
64,882 4,322
70,561 5,496 65,065 3.857
69,546 5,326 64,220 3,516
69,891 5,350 64, 541 3,453
69. 325 4,777 64,548 3,936
68,615 4,039 64,576 3,846
58.9
58.3
57.2
57.3
57.2
56.5
and
See footnotes at end of table.
Percent
49,440
(3)
214
Unemployment
as percent of
civilian
labor
force
TABLE B-21.—Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-64—Continued
Year and month
Total
Nonin- labor
stitu- force
tional (includ- Armed
popuing forces i
lation i armed1
Total
forces)
Civilian labor force
Total
labor
force
as
percent
Employment 2
of nonUnem- instituNon- ploy-2 tional
popuagri- ment
Total Agricullation
cultural tural
Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over
1964: Jan..
Feb..
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June.
133,200
133,358
133,519
133,678
133,866
134,041
74,514
75, 259
75,553
76,544
77,490
79,389
2,721
2,732
2,743
2,745
2,748
2,744
71,793
72,527
72,810
73,799
74,742
76,645
67,228
68,002
68,517
69, 877
July.
Aug_
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec.
134,216
134,400
134,586
134,772
134,952
135,135
78,958
78,509
76, 865
77.112
76,897
76,567
2,740
2,751
2,743
2,737
2,731
2,726
76,218
75,758
74,122
74,375
74,166
73,841
Unemployment
as percent of
civilian
labor
force
Percent
71,101
71,953
3,993
3,931
4,017
4,429
5,007
5,853
63,234
64,071
64,500
65,448
66,094
66,100
4,565
4,524
4,293
3,921
3,640
4,692
55.9
56.4
56.6
57.3
57.9
59.2
6.4
6.2
5.9
5.3
4.9
6.1
72,405
72,104
70,805
71,123
70,793
70,375
5,819
5,400
5,230
5,126
4,545
3,785
66, 586
66,704
65, 575
65,997
66, 248
66,590
3,813
3,654
3,317
3,252
3,373
3,466
58.8
58. 4
57.1
57.2
57.0
56.7
5.0
4.8
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.7
Seasonally adjusted 5
1963: Jan.Feb._
Mar_.
Apr..
MayJune..
75, 111
75,157
75,267
75, 597
75,683
75,604
72,395
72,433
72, 535
72,861
72, 946
72,868
68,256 5,123 63,133
68,137 4,907 63,230
68,427 4,940 63,487
68,726 5,018 63, 708
68,632 5,019 63,613
68,748 4,923 63,825
4,139
4,296
4,108
4,135
4,314
4,120
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct-_
Nov..
Dec.
75,937
75, 745
75,921
75,981
76, 282
76,120
73,193
72, 996
73,172
73,239
73,543
73,380
69,042 4,987 64,055 4,151
68,968 4,879 64,089 4,028
69,125 4,872 64, 253 4,047
69,118 4,913 64, 205 4,121
69,275 4,904 64,371 4,268
4,884 64,449 4,047
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.5
1964: Jan. _
Feb..
Mar..
Apr__
MayJune _
76,375
76, 551
76, 541
77, 252
77, 225
77,049
73, 654
73,819
73, 798
74,507
74,477
74,305
69, 568
69,842
69,812
70,486
70, 639
70,345
4,883
4,791
4,637
4,791
4,849
4,826
64, 685
65,051
65,175
65, 695
65, 790
65, 519
July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
76,928
77,006
77,023
76,996
77,140
74,188
74, 255
74,280
74,259
74,409
74, 706
70,496
70, 458
70,465
70,379
70, 755
71,004
4,864
4,817
4,815
4,721
4,671
4,541
65, 632
65, 641
65,650
65, 658
66,084
66,463
77,432
4,021
3,838
3,960
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.3
3,692
3,797
3,815
3,880
3,654
3,702
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.0
3,977
* Data for 1940-52 revised to include about 150,000 members of the armed forces who were outside the
United States in 1940 and who were, therefore, not enumerated in the 1940 Census and were excluded from
the 1940-52 estimates.
» See Note.
«Not available.
* Averages adjusted by Council of Economic Advisers for comparison with previous data. See Note.
8 Based on revised seasonal factors; see footnote 4, Table B-22.
NOTE.—Civilian labor force data beginning with January 1963 are based on a 357-area sample. For
January 1960-December 1962 on a 333-area sample; for May 1956-December 1959 on a 330-area sample;
for January 1954-April 1956 on a 230-area sample; for 1946-53 on a 68-area sample; for 1940-45 on a smaller
sample; and for 1929-39 on sources other than direct enumeration.
Effective January 1957, persons on layoff with definite instructions to return to work within 30 days
of layoff and persons waiting to start new wage and salary jobs within the following 30 days are classified
as unemployed. Such persons had previously been classified as employed (with a job but not at work).
The combined total of the groups changing classification has averaged about 200,000 to 300,000 a month in
recent years. The small number of persons in school during the survey week and waiting to start new
jobs are classified as not in the labor force instead of employed, as formerly. Persons waiting to open new
businesses or start new farms within 30 days continued to be classified as employed.
Beginning July 1955, monthly data are for the calendar week ending nearest the 15th of the month; previously, for week containing the 8th. Annual data are averages of monthly figures.
Beginning April 1962, estimating procedures made use of 1960 Census data; January 1953-March 1962,
1950 Census data and 1940-52,1940 Census data were used. For the effects of this change on the historical
comparability of the data, see Employment and Earnings, May 1962, p. xiv.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (except as noted).
215
TABLE B-22.—Employment and unemployment, by sex and age, 1947-64
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Employed
Males
Year or month
Total
Unemployed
Males
Females
Females
20
20 Total
Total 14-19 years Total 14-19 years
Total 14-19
years and
years and
years
over
20
Total 14-19 years
and
Old definitions: *
1947..
1948
1949—
2,795 38,8S3 16,349 1,921 14,429 2,142 1,595
58,027 41,677!,
_„_ 59,378 42,428 2. 911 39, 518 16,950 1,930 15,020 2. 064 1,430
58, 710 41,660 2,68: 38,974 17,049 1,826 15, 225 3,395 2,415
59,957 42,287 2,78: 39,499 17,670 1, 77715,893
1,005 42, 490 2, 753 39, 738 18, 515 ,1,863 16,652
39^717 18, 902 1
. 857 17,047
I, 293 ! 42,391 2,674
2,
62, 213,43,125 2,686 40,440 19, 088 1,829 17,259
8611, 736 17,125
61, 238142,377 2, 550 39, 827 18,
19501951
1952
1953
1954—
3,142
1,879
1,673
1,602
3,230
2,155
1,123
1,062
1,069
2,161
63,193 43,290 2,642 40,646 19,904 1,803 18,101 2,654 1,752
64, 986 44,153 2,802 41,349 20,8311,962 18,869 2,551
1955
1956—
279 1,316
262 1,171
367 2,048
547
633
981
146
153
402
480
753
339 1,816
206
917
756
222 840 611
195 875
533
318 1,842 1,069
204
150
140
117
197
784
609
471
416
292 1,460
296 1,314
179
214
724
730
903
943
1
New definitions:
1957—
1958.
1959
19602
1961—
1962 3
1963
1964
65,011 43, 990 2, 750 41,239 21,0211, 970 19,050 2,936
_. 63,966 43,042 2,631 40,410 20,924 1. 8 8 1 19,043 4,681 3,155
2,821 41, 268 21,492 1, 968 19,523 3,813 2,473
65,58144,
66,681 44, 485 2, 941 41, 543 22,196 2,091 20,1043,931
66, 796 44,318 2, 976 41, 342 22, 478 2,181 20, 2954,806
67,846 44, 892 3, 077 41, 815 22,954 2,262 20, 6934,007
68,809 45,330 3,079 42,252 23,479 2,223 21,257 4,166
. 70,357 46,139 3, 253 42,886 24, 218 2,316 21,903 3,876
2,541
3,060
2,488
2,537
2,271
351 1,541 1,043
473 2,680 1,526
451 2,022 1,340
222
820
284 1,242
276 1,064
4S0
542
472
566
553
2,058
2,518
2,016
1,971
1,718
1,390
1,747
1,519
1,629
1,605
310
379
344
413
409
1,078
1,366
1,176
1,216
1,195
478
537
546
583
666
569
2,084
2,152
2,037
1,987
1,973
1,930
1,577
1,607
1,525
1,565
1,675
1,621
398
377
383
449
1,189
1,209
1,148
1,182
1,226
1,206
Seasonally adjusted *
1963:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
JulyAug..
Sept.
Oct._
Nov.
Dec
68,256 45,035 3,035 42,000 23,1,221 2.210 21,011
'" 137 44,855 2,929 41,926 23,t, 282 2,195 21,087
68,
23,339 2.211 21,128
68,42'!7 45, ( 2,967 42,
23,490 2,222 21,268
68,726 45,236 3,077 42,
68,632 45,191 3,039 42,152
~
23,441 2,259 21,182
68, 748 45,>, 370 3, 043 42,327 23, 3782,197 21,181
4,139
4,296
4,108
4,135
4,314
4,120
2,562
, , 2 216 9
69,042 45,545 3, 076 42, 469 23,497 2,228
68i
968 45, 582 3,182 42,400 23,386 T2,22521,161
"""'"
68968
' ">, 571
578 3,150 42, 428 23,5472,21121,336
69,125 45,
69,118 45,i, 469 3,148 42,321 23,649 2,22321,426
», 468 3,119 42,349 23,807 2,231121,576
69,2
69,333 45,i, 498 3,096 42,402 23,835 2,260 21,575
4,151
4,028
4,047
4,121
4,268
4,047
2,512
2,415
2,389
2,405
2,554
2,425
600
543
567
533
597
1,912
1,872
1,822
1,872
1,957
1,639
1,613
1,658
1,716
1,714
1,622
429
369
414
462
447
403
1,210
1,244
1,244
1,254
1,267
1,219
1964:
Jan. .
Feb..
Mar..
AprMay.
June.
568 45,690 3,120 42, 570 23,878 2,305 21,573
. 2,332
842 45,834 3^ 161 42, 673 24',. .008
2\ 21,676
812 45,856 3,223 42,633 23,956 2,325 21,631
486 46,13^ 3,246 42,891 24,349
~"~ 2,282 22,067
70; 639 46,349 3,321 43,028 24,290 2,277 22,013
70,345 46,044 3,233 42,811 24,301 2,311 21,990
4,C
3,977
3,986
4,021
3,838
3,960
2,420
2,314
2,334
2,328
2,226
2,342
54;
509
572
602
589
566
1,875
1,805
1,762
1,726
1,637
1,776
1,666
1,663
1,652
1,693
1,612
1,618
409
390
380
438
431
1,257
1,273
1,272
1,255
1,181
1,192
70,496 46,334 3,326 43,008
2,
t, 310 21,852 3,692
_. ._.46,19' 3,221 42,976
42,976 24',162
261 2,308 21,953 3,797
70,458
„ . 2,387 21,904 3,815
70,465 46,174 3,273 42,901
70,379 46,140 3,278 42| 862 24^ 239 2,297 2l| 9423,880
70,755 46,304 3,254 43,050 24, 451 2,451 22,000 3,654
71,004 46,404 3,279 43,125 24,600 2,323 22,277 3,702
2,191
2,249
2,265
2,261
2,111
2,113
511
581
549
481
568
551
1,680
1,668
1,716
1,780
1,543
1,562
1,501
1,548
1,550
1,619
1,543
1,589
348
394
396
451
384
491
1,153
1,154
1,154
1,168
1,159
1,098
July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct_.
Nov.
Dec.
2,583
2,570
2,639
2,499
1
2
See Note, Table B-21, for explanation of differences between the old and new definitions.
Beginning 1960, data for Alaska and Hawaii are included.
3 Beginning April 1962, not comparable with prior data; see Note, Table B-21.
Based on revised seasonal factors incorporating data through December 1964. See Monthly Report on the
Labor Force, January 1965 (to be issued in February 1965).
4
Note.—See Note, Table B-21, for information on area sample used and reporting periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
216
TABLE B-23.—Selected measures of unemployment and part-time employment, 1948-64
Unemployment rate (percent of civilian
labor force in group)
Year or month
All
workers
Experienced
wage and
salary
workers
Married
men i
Teenagers,
14-19
years
Labor
force
time lost
through
unemployment
and parttime
work 2
Persons employed
part-time in nonagricultural industries for economic
reasons
Usually
full- .
times
Usually
parttime «
Thousands of
persons 14 years of
age and over
Percent
New definitions:
1948..
1949..
3.8
5.9
4 ?,
6.7
3.4
12.2
1,530
786
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
5.3
3.3
3.1
2.9
5.6
6.0
3.7
3.3
3.2
6.0
4.6
1.5
1.4
1.7
4.0
11.3
1,032
917
958
965
694
642
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
4.4
4.2
4.3
6.8
5.5
4.8
4.4
4.5
7.2
5.6
2.6
2.3
2.8
5.1
3.6
10.2
10.4
10.8
14.4
13.2
5.1
5.3
8.1
6.6
934
1,067
1,183
1,638
1,032
876
900
986
1,315
1,304
1960 «.
1961...
1962 7.
5.6
6.7
5.6
5.7
5.2
5.7
6.8
5.5
5.5
5.0
3.7
4.6
3.6
3.4
2.8
13.6
15.2
13.3
15.6
14.7
6.7
8.0
6.7
2 6.4
5.8
1,243
1,297
1,049
1,070
1,317
1,516
1,288
1,219
1,151
1964..
7.7
8.0
7.1
(s)
1,548
11.4
Seasonally adjusted
8
1963: Jan...
Feb._
Mar_.
Apr__
May.
June.
5.6
5.9
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.6
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.2
14.1
15.2
15.0
15.6
17.7
15.8
6.6
6.6
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
1,039
1,052
1,020
1,070
1,022
1,081
1,257
1,244
1,227
1,156
1,197
1,246
July._
Aug._
Sept.
Oct..
Nov_.
Dec.
5.4'
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.7
5.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.3
16.0
14.6
15.3
15.7
17.0
14.7
6.4
6.3
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.1
1,048
1,178
1,173
1,101
1,034
1,023
1,214
1,287
1,223
1,220
1,168
1,157
1964: Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr._
May.
June.
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.8
5.3
3.2
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.8
14.9
13.8
14.4
16.2
15.9
15.0
6.2
6.1
5.8
5.9
5.7
6.1
957
1,164
1,165
1,127
1,154
1,216
1,150
July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.5
2.7
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.7
13.1
15.0
14.2
14.4
14.9
15.4
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.2
5.3
1,085
1,003
992
932
1,100
995
900
978
973
890
1,037
1,176
1,203
1,162
1,136
1,048
1,078
1 Married men living with their wives. Data for 1949 and 1951-54 are for April; 1950 for March. These
data, including 1955 and 1956, have not been adjusted to reflect the change in the definition of employment
and
unemployment adopted in January 1957. See Note, Table B-21.
2
Beginning in 1963, this series not strictly comparable with preceding data. Under the current concept, the nercent of labor force time lost assumes that unemployed persons looking for full-time work lost
37.5 hours, unemployed persons looking for part-time work lost the average hours worked by voluntary
part-time employees, and those on part-time for economic reasons lost difference between 37.5 hours and
actual number of hours worked.
' Includes persons who worked part-time because of slack work, material shortages or repairs, new job
started,
or job terminated. Data for 1949-55 are for the month of May.
4
-Primarily includes persons who could find only part-time work. Data for 1949-55 related to May.
«Not available.
«
Beginning 1960, data for Alaska and Hawaii included.
7
Not com t arable with prior data. See Note, Table B-21.
8
See footnote 3, Table B-24.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
217
TABLE B-24.—Unemployed persons, by duration of unemployment, 1947-64
Duration of unemployment
Year or month
Total unemployed
4 weeks
and under
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
Over
26 weeks
Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over
New definitions:
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
19601
1961
1962 3
1963
1964
.-._
Seasonally adjusted
3
1963: J a n . .
Feb..
Mar.
Apr..
May.
JuneJuly.
Aug_
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec-
4,146
4,307
4,096
4,135
4,302
4,124
1,795
1,759
1,777
1,848
2,048
1,892
1,210
1,263
1,191
1,236
1,165
1,257
521
500
487
518
559
544
607
597
580
595
521
4,106
4,047
4,047
4,101
4,350
4,019
1,846
1,809
1,803
1,799
1,955
1,814
1,312
1,196
1,234
1,214
1,272
1,217
496
576
520
562
552
532
546
507
558
552
508
490
1964: Jan..
Feb..
Mar.
Apr_.
May.
June.
4,100
4,003
3,953
4,024
3,841
3,953
1,861
1,619
1,854
1,921
1,867
1,878
1,104
1,187
1,031
1,214
1,095
1,108
601
507
545
464
445
541
504
500
502
463
489
529
July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec-
3,827
3,825
3,862
3,727
3,670
1,617
1,832
1,823
1,799
1,658
1,705
1,139
1,135
1,109
1,129
1,089
1,064
434
410
474
493
507
448
524
492
455
452
424
435
1 Beginning January 1960, data for Alaska and Hawaii are included.
Beginning April 1962, not comparable with prior data; see Note, Table B-21.
Based on seasonal factors incorporating data through December 1963. Series based on revised factors
incorporating data through December 1964 will appear in Monthly Report on the Labor Force, January 1965
(to be issued in February 1965).
NOTE.—See Note, Table B-21 for information on area sample used and reporting periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2
3
218
TABLE B-25.—Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1940-64
State programs
All programs
Year or month
Insured Total
Cov- unem- benefits Insured
ered
paid
ploy(mil- unem- Initial
emment
ploy- claims
ploy- (weekly lions ment
•
ment i aver- of dolage) * 3 lars) ««
Weekly average,
thousands
Thousands
1940_.
1941..
1942..
1943-.
1944..
1915..
19461947..
1948..
1949..
1950_.
19511952..
19531954..
24,291
28,136
30, 819
32, 419
31,714
30,087
31, 856
33, 876
34,646
33,098
34, 308
36,334
37,006
38,072
36,617
40,014
42, 758
43,436
44,412
45, 728
195519561957..
1958..
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 7
1963: J a n . . . .
Feb..
Mar...
Apr...
May_.
June..
July..
Aug...
Sept...
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.
1964: Jan....
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May.
June..
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov._
Dec?-
1.331
842
661
149
111
720
2,804
1,805
1,468
2,479
1,605
1,000
1,069
1,065
2,048
1,395
1,318
1,567
3,269
2,099
2,067
2,994
1,924
1,973
1,725
46, 264
47.766
48, 426
49, 295
46,665
2,778
46, 632 2,726
47,063
2,465
47,892
2,089
48, 329 1,799
1,628
49,001
49,095 ' 1,655
49,381
1,587
49,424
1,444
49, 256 1,476
49,058
1,686
49,309
2,122
47,692
2,563
47, 677 2,410
48,172
2,200
48,844
1,920
M9,396
1,605
9
50,146
1,448
1,491
1,396
1,256
1,264
1,417
1,793
Exhaustions 8
534.7
358.8
350.4
80.5
67.2
574.9
2, 878.5
1, 785.0
1, 328. 7
2, 269.8
1,467.6
'62.9
1,043. 5
1,050. 6
2, 291. 8
1, 560. 2
1, 540. 6
1,913.0
4, 209.2
2,803.0
3, 022.7
4, 358.2
3,160.0
3,025. 9
2, 745.0
373.0
339.6
343.0
297.8
254.6
205.0
211.8
204.8
179.8
190.0
181.3
254. 5
345.6
307.9
315.6
280.9
218.3
199.3
195.6
180.2
163.7
157.8
162.0
230.0
1,282
814
649
147
105
589
1,295
1,009
1,002
1,979
1,503
969
1,024
995
1,865
1,254
1,212
1,450
2,509
1,682
1,906
2,290
1.783
1,806
1,605
2,591
2,546
2,298
1,918
1,624
1,468
81,497
1,438
1,296
1,333
1,542
1,972
2,395
2,243
2,050
1,755
1,447
1,297
1,343
1,260
1,125
1,138
1,293
1,675
214
164
122
36
29
116
189
187
210
322
236
208
215
218
303
226
226
268
370
281
331
350
302
294
268
447
325
272
273
239
240
8 301
251
226
256
292
415
412
291
259
246
218
218
282
212
194
225
276
348
Insured unemployment as percent of covered
employment
SeasonUnad- ally
adjusted justed
Benefitspaid
AverTotal
age
(mil- weekly
lions of check
dollars)
(dol(4)
lars) •
Percent
50
30
21
4
2
5
38
24
20
37
36
16
18
15
34
25
20
23
50
33
31
46
32
30
26
35
36
36
37
33
32
28
26
24
24
22
27
30
31
32
34
31
27
24
23
21
20
20
23
5.6
3.0
2.2
.5
.4
2.1
4.3
3.1
3.0
6.2
4.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
5.2
3.5
3.2
3.6
6.4
4.4
4.8
5.6
4.4
4.3
3.8
6.3
6.2
5.6
4.7
3.9
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.0
3.1
3.6
4.7
5.7
5.3
4.9
4.2
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.5
2.6
3.0
3.9
18
4.6
4-4
4.2
4.2
4-1
4-1
4.2
4-0
4.1
4-1
4.3
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.6
518.7
344.3
344.1
79.6
62.4
445.9
1,094.9
775.1
789.9
1, 736.0
1,373.1
840.4
998.2
962.2
2,026.9
1,350.3
1, 380. 7
1,733. 9
3, 512. 7
2, 279.0
2, 726.7
3, 422. 7
2.675. 4
2, 774. 7
2, 522. 4
342.4
313.3
316.4
274.8
235.9
188.2
195.6
186.8
163.1
172.0
165.0
233.0
319.3
283.8
292.6
258.0
201.5
183.1
180.5
164.5
148.4
143.2
147.0
211.4
10.56
11.06
12.66
13.84
15.90
18.77
18.50
17.83
19.03
20.48
20.76
21.09
22.79
23.58
24.93
25.04
27.02
28.17
30.58
30.41
32.87
33.80
34.56
35.27
35.85
35.52
35.70
35.80
35.54
34.91
34.34
34.43
34.67
34.93
35.15
35.37
35.78
36.07
36.24
36.26
36.02
35.50
35.27
35.35
35.60
35.40
35.92
36.38
36.50
1
Includes persons under the State, UCFE (Federal employee, effective January 1955), and R R B (Railroad Retirement Board) programs. Beginning October 1958, also includes the UCX program (unemployment
compensation for ex-servicemen).
2
Includes State, UCFE, RR, UCX, UCV (unemployment compensation for veterans, October 1952January I960), and SRA (Servicemen's Readjustment Act, September 1944-September 1951) programs.
Also includes Federal and State programs for temporary extension of benefits from June 1958 through
June 1962, expiration date of program.
• Covered workers who have completed at least 1 week of unemployment.
4 Includes benefits paid under extended duration provisions of State laws, beginning June 1958. Annua 1
data are net amounts and monthly data are gross amounts.
• Individuals receiving final payments in benefit year.
• For total unemployment only.
»Preliminary.
8
Programs include Puerto Rican sugarcane workers for initial claims and insured unemployment beginning
July 1963.
9
Preliminary, June 1964 is latest month for which data are available for all programs combined. Workers
covered by State programs account for about 87 percent of the total.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included for all periods and for Puerto Rico since January 1961.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security.
219
T A B L E B—26.—Number of wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments,
1929—64x
[Thousands of employees]
Year or month
Manufacturing
Total
wage
and
Minsalary
Dura- Non- ing
work- Total ble durable
goods
1929
31,339 10.702
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
29,424
26,649
23,628
23,711
25,953
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
27,053 9,069
29,082 9,827
31,026 10,794
29,209 9,440
30,618 10,278
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
32,376
36,554
40,125
42,452
41,883
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
Contract
construction
TransFi Serv- Government
porta- Whole- nance,
ice
tion
insurand
and
and
ance,
mispub- retail and cel- Fed- State
lic
real lane- eral
utili- trade estate
ous
ties
1,497
3,916
6,123
1,509 3,440
1,009 1,372
873 1,214
731
970
744
809
862
3,685
3,254
2,816
2,672
2,750
5,797
5,284
4,683
4,755
5,281
1,475 3,376
:. 407 3,183
,341 2,931
,295 2,873
,319 3,058
897
946
1,015
891
()
()
854
4,715 5,564
912
1,145
1,112
1,055
1,150
2,786
2,973
3,134
2,863
2,936
5,431
5,809
6,265
6,179
6,426
,335
,388
,432
,425
,462
3,142
3,326
3,518
3,473
3,517
753
826
833
829
905
10,985 5,363 5,622
13,192 6,968 6,225
15,280 8,823 6,458
17,602 11,084 6,518
17,328 10,856 6,472
925
957
992
925
892
1,294
1,790
2,170
1,567
1,094
3,274
3,460
3,647
3,829
6,750
7,210
7,118
6,982
7,058
,502
,549
,538
,502
,476
3,681
3,921
4,084
4,148
4,163
996
1,340
2,213
2,905
2,928
40,394
41.674
43,881
44,891
43, 778
15,524
14.703
15,545
15, 582
14,441
862 1,661
955 1,982
994 2,169
2,165
3,906
4,061
4,166
4,189
4,001
7,314
8,376
8,955
9,272
9,264
,497
,697
,754
,829
., 85'
4,241
4,719
5,050
5,206
5,264
2,808
2,254
1,892
1,8"
1,9
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
45,222
47,849
48,825
50,232
49,022
15,241 8,094 7,147
16,393 9,089 7,304
16,632 9,349 7,284
17,549 10,110 7,438
16,314 9,129 7,185
901
929
898
866
791
2,333
2,603
2,634
2,623
2,612
4,034
4,226
4,248
4,290
4,084
9,386
9,742
10,004
10,247
10,235
1,919
1,991
2,069
2,146
2,234
5,382
5,576
5,730
5,867
6,002
1,9
2,302
2,420
2,305
2,188
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
50.675
52,408
52,894
51,368
53,297
16,882
17,243
17,174
15,945
16, 675
9,541
9,834
9,856
8,830
9,373
7,340
7,409
7,319
7,116
7.303
792
822
828
751
732
2,802
2,999
2,923
2,778
2,960
4,141
4,244
4,241
3,976
4,011
10,535
10,858
10,886
10,750
11,127
2,335
2,429
2,477
2,519
2,594
6,274
6,536
6,749
6,811
7,115
2,187
2,209
2,217
2,191
2,233
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
54,203
53,989
55,515
56,643
58,178
16, 796
16,326
16,853
17,005
17,301
9,459
9,070
9,481
9,625
7,336
7,256
7,372
7,380
7,454
712
672
650
635
636
2,885
2,816
2,902
2,983
3,105
4,004
3,903
3,906
3,914
3,974
11,391
11.337
11,566
11,803
12,184
2,669
2,731
2,800
2,873
2,945
7,392
7,610
7,947
8,230
8,532
2,270
2,279
2,340
2,358
2,348
1,087
9,562
8,170
6,931
7,397
8,501
9,074
7,742
8,385
8,326
7/"
6,450
6,962
7,159
7,256
6,953
1,132
560
559
565
652
Seasonally adjusted
1962: Jan_.
FebMar.
Apr.
May
June
54,695
55,003
55,162
55,411
55,502
55, 565
16,669
16,748
16,806
16,906
16,890
16,911
9,338
9,403
9,448
9,504
9,506
9,512
7,331
7,345
7,358
7,402
7,384
7,399
666
666
663
659
658
652
2,763
2,872
2,860
2,924
2,926
2,878
3,904
3,909
3,916
3,919
3,916
3,908
11,412
11,468
11,519
11, 543
11, 573
11, 591
2,771
2,772
2,779
2,786
2,794
2,797
7,787
7,822
7,849
7,884
7,915
7,955
2,299
2,305
2,308
2,313
2,322
2,333
July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec-
55,657
55,673
55,767
55,802
55,874
55,881
16,916
16,872
16,900
16,894
16,885
16,866
9,527
9,489
9,516
9,518
9,511
9,517
7,389
7,383
7,384
7,376
7,374
7,349
645
648
644
642
635
630
2,931
2,927
2,928
2,927
2,933
2,913
3,881
3,898
3,900
3,908
3,900
3,913
11,609
11,599
11,616
11,606
11,623
11,625
2,801
2,810
2,813
2,821
2,829
2,830
7,980
8,005
8,027
8,033
8,044
8,064
2,335
2,337
2,336
2,333
2,350
2,346
See footnotes at end of table.
220
TABLE B-26.—Number of wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1929-641
Continued
[Thousands of employees]
Year or month
Manufacturing
Total
wage
Minand
salary
Dura- Non- ing
work- Total ble durable
goods goods
ers
Contract
construction
Transportation
and
public
utilities
Fi-
Whole- nance,
sale insurand ance,
retail and
trade real
estate
Serv- Government
ice
and
misState
cel- Fed- and
lane- eral local
ous
Seasonally adjusted
1963: Jan...
Feb.Mar..
Apr..
May.
June_.
55,900
56,044
56,187
56,368
56,511
56,601
16,898
16,888
16,934
16,990
17,030
17,013
9,549
9,543
9,566
9,608
9,631
9,630
7,349
7,345
7,368
7,382
7,399
7,383
630
630
631
636
637
640
2,914
2,897
2,904
2,964
2,974
2,990
3,814
3,907
3,898
3,901
3,915
3,921
11,648
11,679
11,709
11,726
11,756
11,788
2,840
2,846
2,855
2,860
2,869
2,872
8,079
8,098
8,136
8,154
8,183
8,213
2,346
2,348
2,348
2,351
2,347
2,344
6,731
6,751
6,772
6,786
6,802
6,820
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct..
Nov..
Dec-
56,763
56,768
56,868
57,070
57,101
57,291
17,058
17,003
17,025
17,066
17,059
17,115
9,661
9,619
9,648
9,667
9,670
9,717
7,397
7,384
7,377
7,399
7,389
7,398
641
638
636
636
635
636
3,006
3,016
3,019
3,015
3,015
3,052
3,932
3,937
3,947
3,940
3,932
3,931
11,811
11,837
11,857
11,890
11,910
11,950
2,874
2,879
2,881
2,893
2,896
2,904
8,269
8,282
8,290
8,346
8,352
8,366
2,342
2,339
2,342
2,345
2,345
2,346
6,830
6,837
6,871
6,939
6,957
6,991
1964: Jan...
Feb-_
Mar._
Apr__
May_
June.
57,334
57,684
57,754
57,827
57,931
58,104
17,131
17,171
17,208
17,224
17,225
17,285
9,725
9,740
9,784
9,798
9,780
9,826
7,406
7,431
7,424
7,426
7,445
7,459
632
633
633
633
631
639
2,941
3,132
3,122
3,081
3,093
3,106
3,936
3,943
3,940
3,964
3,968
3,965
12,021
12,083
12,077
12,096
12,135
12,187
2,911
2,917
2,924
2,931
2,934
2,943
8,401
8,437
8,455
8,461
8,489
8,509
2,342
2,337
2,337
2,341
2,339
2,323
7,019
7,031
7,058
7,096
7,117
7,147
July..
Aug..
Sept_.
Oct...
Nov»
Dec 3.
58,256
58,301
58,458
58,382
58,871
59,097
17,344 9,890 7,454
17,339 9,886 7,453
17,449 9,986 7,463
17,171 9,702 7,469
17,512 10,002 7,510
17,593 10,076 7,517
639
634
634
638
640
644
3,107
3,103
3,080
3,106
3,167
3,225
3,983
3,999
4,005
3,996
3,997
4,003
12,223
12,231
12,229
12,278
12,307
12,318
2,948
2,951
2,960
2,964
2,970
2,979
8,561
8,573
8,592
8,633
8,630
8,644
2,322
2,328
2,320
2,331
2,354
2,361
7,129
7,143
7,189
7,265
7,294
7,330
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked
during, or received pay for, any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes
proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and unpaid family workers. Not comparable with
estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force (Table B-21) which include proprietors,
self-employed persons, domestic servants, and unpaid family workers; which count persons as employed
when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc.; and which are based on a
sample survey of households, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing
establishments.
8
Not available.
»Preliminary.
NOTE.—Data are based on the 1957 Standard Industrial Classification and March 1963 benchmark data.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
757-981<
221
TABLE B-27.—Average weekly hours of work in selected industries, 1929-64
Manufacturing
Year or month
1929—.
1930
1931—.
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1953...
1954—
1955...
1956—
1957—
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963—
1964 «.
Contract
conNonstrucdurable
Total Durable
tion
goods goods
Retail
trade
(except Whole- Bitumi- Class I Telephone
nous
eating
sale
railcomcoal
and
drink- trade mining roads * munication
«
ing
places)
38.1
33.3
28.1
27.0
29.3
26.8
26.2
28.5
27.7
23.3
26.8
27.8
30.7
32.4
36.3
43.0
42.0
41.3
40.3
37.7
32.3
34.7
34.9
33.8
34.1
32.3
37.3
37.5
36.3
33.3
35.8
35.8
35.9
»37.0
•38.9
44.2
42.1
40.5
38.3
38.1
34.6
36.6
39.2
38.6
35.6
37.7
38.1
40.6
43.1
45.0
45.2
43.5
40.3
40.4
40.0
39.1
40.5
40.6
40.7
40.5
39.6
40.7
40.4
39.8
39.2
40.3
39.7
39.8
40.4
40.5
40.7
8
41.9
40.0
35.1
36.1
37.7
37.4
36.1
37.4
37.0
38.9
40.3
42.5
43.1
42.3
40.5
40.2
39.6
38.9
39.7
39.5
39.7
39.6
39.0
38.8
39.7
39.2
39.3
39.6
39.6
39.7
38.2
38.1
37.7
37.4
38.1
38.9
37.9
37.2
37.1
37.5
37.0
36.8
37.0
36.7
36.9
37.0
37.3
37.1
Seasonally adjusted
1963: Jan._.
Feb._.
Mar..
Apr...
MayJune. .
July...
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec-..
1964: J a n . . .
Feb...
Mar—
Apr
May..
June..
July—
Aug.. .
Sept..
Oct...
Nov «..
Dec«_.
40.5
40.3
40.4
40.1
40.4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.5
40.6
40.5
40.7
40.2
40.7
40.6
10.7
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.8
40.5
40.5
40.9
41.1
41.2
41.0
41.0
40.7
41.0
41.3
41.1
41.0
41.2
41.3
41.2
41.3
41.1
41.3
41.2
41.4
41.3
41.4
41.3
41.5
41.4
41.2
41.6
41.9
39.6
39.6
39.7
39.3
39.6
39.6
39.5
39.6
39.7
39.8
39.7
39.7
39.1
39.8
39.7
39.8
39.7
39.6
39.5
39.7
39.4
39.9
39.9
39.8
1
36.5
36.3
37.1
37.4
37.4
37.5
37.2
37.1
37.3
37.5
37.1
37.4
35.2
37.6
37.4
37.2
37.3
37.3
36.8
37.0
35.6
37.1
37.7
39.2
38.8
38.9
39.1
39.5
40.1
40.5
41.0
42.3
4 41.7
39.4
37.4
39.2
38.5
38.9
39.1
38.5
38.7
38.9
39.6
39.5
39.0
38.4
39.2
39.6
39.4
39.9
40.0
40.2
Unadjusted
37.8
37.8
37.8
37.9
37.8
37.9
37.9
37.8
37.7
37.7
37.7
37.7
37.3
37.5
37.4
37.4
37.5
37.5
37.7
37.5
37.3
37.5
37.2
(8)
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.5
40.6
40.6
4a 7
40.4
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.5
40.6
40.9
39.0
39.1
36.6
38.4
39.7
41.1
(8)
38.0
39.3
39.2
37.8
40.0
39.6
38.6
36.8
37.6
39.1
40.4
(3)
39.9
37.7
40.7
40.4
43.0
43.3
41.5
43.0
43.6
41.9
43.7
43.1
42.1
43.8
42.7
43.0
43.5
43.1
42.8
43.4
42.4
44.3
44.3
(8)
(')
(8)
(
(?)
39.8
39.6
39.5
39.7
40.0
40.3
40.1
40.5
40.4
40.8
39.6
39.3
39.6
39.5
39.3
39.8
40.0
40.2
40.2
41.8
40.8
41.0
()
Data relate to all employees who received pay during the month, except executives, officials and staff
assistants.
2
Prior to April 1945, data relate to all employees except executives. See footnote 2, Table B-28.
3 Not available.
* Nine-month average, April through December, because of new series started in April 1945.
8 Eleven-month average, excludes data for July.
6 Preliminary.
NOTE.—See Note, Table B-26.
Data are for production workers in manufacturing and mining, construction workers in contract
construction, and for nonsupervisory employees in other industries (except as noted). Data are for pay
period which includes the 12th of the month.
The annual figures for 1964 are arithmetic averages of the monthly figures shown and are not strictly
comparable with the averages for earlier years, which have been weighted by data on employment.
See Table B-30 for unadjusted average weekly hours In manufacturing.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
222
TABLE B-28.—Average gross hourly earnings in selected industries, 1929-64
Manufacturing
Year or month
Total
1929..
1930..
1931..
1932..
19331934..
1935..
1936..
1937..
1938.19391940..
1941__
19421943..
19441945194619471948—
1949._
1950
19511952
1953
1954.—
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
_.
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 7
1963: Jan....
Feb...
Mar...
Apr...
May_June—.
July—
Aug...
$0.560
.546
.509
.441
.437
.526
.544
.550
.617
.620
.627
.655
.726
.851
.957
1.011
1.016
1.075
1.217
1.328
1.378
1.440
1.56
1.65
1.74
1.78
1.86
1.95
2.05
2.11
2.19
2.26
2.32
2.39
2.46
2.54
2.43
2.43
2.44
2.44
2.45
2.46
2.46
2.43
2.47
2.47
2.49
2.51
2.52
2.51
2.51
2.53
2.53
2.53
2.53
2.52
2.57
2.53
2.56
2.58
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
8
(0
(«)
$0.412
.419
.505
.520
.519
.566
.572
.571
.590
.627
.709
.787
.844
.886
.995
1.145
1.250
1.295
1.347
1.44
1.51
1.58
1.62
1.67
1.77
1.85
1.91
1.98
2.05
2.11
2.17
2.22
2.29
2.20
2.20
2.21
2.21
2.21
2.22
2.22
2.21
2.24
2.24
2.25
2.27
2.28
2.27
2.27
2.28
2.29
2.29
2.29
2.29
2.32
2.30
2.31
2.32
Retail
Contrade
TeleBitu- Class I phone
tract (except Whole- minous
Agriconeating
sale
railcomculcoal roads i municastrucand
trade mining
ture'
tion drinking
tion 2
places)
(*)
()
(*)
$0,659
.662
.626
.503
.485
.651
.720
.768
.828
.849
.858
.854
.960
1.030
1.101
1.147
1.199
1.357
1.582
1.835
1.877
1.944
2.14
2.22
2.40
2.40
2.4>
2.72
2.92
2.93
3.11
3.14
3.12
«3.12
•3.15
«3.30
3.11
3.15
3.13
3.11
3.12
3.14
(*)
$0,241
.226
.172
.129
.115
.129
.142
.152
.172
.166
.166
.169
.206
.268
.353
.423
.472
.515
.547
.580
.559
.561
.625
.661
.672
.661
.675
.705
.728
.757
.798
.818
.834
.856
.880
.904
.948
$0,492
(*)
.467
(4)
()
.550
(4)
$0.610
.571
(4)
.628
.580
(4)
.658
.667
(4)
()
.674
$0,730
.679
(4)
.688
.691
$0,484
4
.733
()
.711
.716
.494
.743
(4)
.763
.799
.518
4
.837
()
.937
.559
.852
(4)
1.048
.606
948
(«)
1.105
.653
.990
.955
(*)
1.099
.699
1.107
.087
(4)
1.144
.797
1.220
.186
$1.541
1.278
.901
1.308
.301
1.713
1.395
.972
1.360
.427
1.792
1.453
1.015
1.427
.572
1.863
1.519
.050
1.52
.73
2.02
1.65
.13
1.61
.83
2.13
1.75
.18
1.70
.88
2.28
1.86
.25
1.76
.93
2.39
1.90
.29
1.83
.96
2.45
1.99
.34
1.94
2.12
2.57
2.08
1.40
2.02
2.26
2.71
2.19
.47
2.09
2.44
2.82
2.26
.52
2.18
2.54
2.93
2.36
.57
2.24
2.61
3.08
2.43
.62
2.31
2.67
3.20
2.49
.68
2.37
2.72
3.31
2.56
.74
2.45
2.76
3.41
2.64
.80
2.52
(4)
3.55
2.71
..87
2.41
2.75
3.41
2.60
L.
78
2.42
2.81
3.40
2.61
.78
2.43
2.77
3.38
2.61
.78
2.44
2.75
3.33
.799
2.62
.79
2.45
2.74
3.35
2.63
.80
2.46
2.78
3.36
2.64
.81
2.44
2.75
3.39
.872
2.63
.80
2.45
2.75
3.41
3.14
2.61
L80
2.48
2.78
3.45
Sept...
3.18
2.65
.82
2.48
2.74
3.46
Oct....
3.15
2.66
.83
2.48
2.78
3.43
Nov...
3.16
2.67
.83
2.48
2.78
3.53
3.21
Dec. _.
2.69
.80
2.48
2.76
3.57
3.21
.962
2.69
.84
1964: J a n . —
2.50
2.80
3.53
3.20
2.69
.85
Feb...
2.50
2.76
3.51
3.20
2.69
.85
Mar...
2.51
2.76
3.52
3.28
.827
2.70
.86
Apr...
2.53
2.78
3.50
3.30
May..
2.71
1.87
2.52
2.77
3.49
3.33
June...
2.71
L87
2.52
2.77
3.53
.897
July—
2.71
..87
2.52
(*)
3.54
3.34
Aug..2.71
.87
2.54
(4)
3.58
3.36
Sept—
2.75
2.54
3.61
~9i5
3.35
Oct..._
2.70
2.55
3.56
3.38
N o v 7..
2.73
Dec 7__
(*)
2.76
1
For coverage of series, see footnote 1, Table B-27.
2
Prior to April 1945, data relate to all employees except executives; for April 1945-May 1949, mainly to
employees subject to the Fair Labor Standards Act; and beginning June 1949, to nonsupervisory employees
only.
» weighted average of all farm wage rates on a per hour basis.
< Not available.
• Nine-month average, April through December, because of new series started in April 1945.
• Eleven-month average, excludes data for July.
»Preliminary.
NOTE.—See Note, Table B-26.
Data are for production workers in manufacturing and mining, construction workers in contract construction, and for all nonsupervisory employees in other industries (except as noted). Data are for pay
period which includes the 12th of the month.
The annual figures for 1964 are arithmetic averages of the monthly figures shown and are not strictly
comparable with the averages for earlier years, which have been weighted by data on man-hours.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959.
Sources: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Agriculture.
8
223
TABLE B-29.—Average gross weekly earnings in selected industries, 1929-64
Manufacturing
Year or month
Total
1929..
1930..
1931..
1932..
1933..
1934..
1935..
1936..
1937..
1938..
$24. 76
23.00
20.64
16.89
16.65
18.20
19.91
21.56
23.82
22.07
23.64
24.96
29.48
36.68
43.07
45.70
44.20
43.32
49.17
53.12
53.88
58.32
63.34
67.16
70.47
Contract
conNonDurastrucdurable tion
ble
goods goods
$26.84 $22.47
21.40
24.42
20.09
20.98
17.26
15.99
16.76
16.20
17 73
18.59
18.77
21.24
23 72 19.57
26.61
21.17
23.70
20.65
26.19
21.36
21.83
28.07
24.39
33.56
28.57
42.17
33.45
48.73
51.38
48.36
37.48
46.22
40.30
51.76
46.03
56.36
49.50
57.25
50.38
53.48
62.43
56.88
68.48
59.95
72.63
62.57
76.63
63.18
76.19
66.63
82.19
70.09
85.28
88.26
72.52
89.27
74.11
96.05
78.61
80.36
97.44
82.92
100.35
85.93
104.70
87.91
108.50
90.91
112.19
86.24
105.82
86.24
106.23
87.07
106.49
85.97
106.37
87.52
108.36
88.58
109.82
88.36
108.09
88.40
107.01
89.38
109.45
89.38
110.12
110.00 89.10
90.57
111.90
88.24
109.21
89.44
110.29
89.67
110.29
89.83
111.51
90.91
112.47
91.37
113.01
91.14
111.92
91.83
112.47
91.87
114.13
92.00
111.51
91.94
113.57
92.80
116.47
Retail
trade
Tele(exceot Whole- Bitumi- Class I phone
eajin?
nous
comsale
railand
coal
mudrink- trade mining roads * nicaing
tion»
places)
8
()
$26. 75
25.19
25. 44
25.38
26.96
28.36
28.51
28.76
29.36
31.36
34.28
37.99
40.76
42.37
46.05
50.14
53.63
55.49
58.08
62.02
65.53
69.02
71.28
74.48
78.57
81.41
84.02
88.51
90.72
93.56
96.22
99.47
102. 56
97.36
97.53
98.17
98.82
99.47
100.12
99.55
99.72
100.69
100.94
100.69
101.43
99.70
100.75
101.25
101.91
102.97
102.82
103.07
102.82
103.12
103.38
104.30
)
$25.11
22.04
17.59
13.58
14.21
17.45
18.86
21.89
22.94
19.78
22.99
23.74
29.47
33 37
39.97
49.32
50.36
56.04
63.75
69.18
60.63
67.46
74.69
75.04
81.84
77.52
92.13
102.00
106.00
97.57
111.34
112.41
112.01
114.46
121.43
129.09
121.29
123.17
114. 56
119.42
123.86
129.05
110.21
119.32
124.97
123.48
119.45
128.40
127.12
123. 52
117.76
123.33
129.03
134.53
122.84
133.27
126.67
136.35
136.55
)
()
8
(83)
(3)
(3)
(3)
8
$30.03
31.74
(3)
32.14
32.67
$21. 01
21.34
32.88
22.17
34.14
23.37
$31.90
36.45
24.79
32.47
38.54
26.77
34.03
28.59
39.34 « 40.12
44.29
32.92
41.49
44.77
36.94
46.36
48.92
39.75
46.32
51.78
41.62
50.00
54.38
$58. 87 43.16
55.03
58.26
46.22
65.27
60.11
61.22
47.79
67.56
62.36
65.02
49.75
69.68
64.14
68.46
61.21
70.49
76.96
70.93
72.07
53.06
75.70
82.86
74.30
73.47
78.78
54.74
86.41
76.33
81.59
76.05
56.89
88.91
78.74
82.71
78.72
58.82
90.90
82.12
88.26
85.46
60.76
96.38
88.40
89.50
62.37
100.27
94.24
1960
89.72
93.38
103. 78 64.01
1961
101. 50
92.34
98.95
65.95
1962
108.41
96.56
106.43
1963
68.04
113.04
99.63
108.84 102.40
1964»
69 94
118.08
103.38
112.94 105.32
99.94
66.93
122.47
115. 87
1963: Jan.—
97.44
101.09
66.75
127.19
118.40
Feb.97.20
3
100.58
66.75
131.71
()
98.09
Mar...
99.94
67.48
120.71
118.25
97.36
Apr
67.68
117.64
99.23
121.67 101.24
May..
68.96
122.36
100.37
114.96 102.00
June..
69.30
124.21
118.25 102.36
July...
99.63
69.30
127.30
119.46 102.26
Aug...
98.42
68.61
129.02
116.48 105.30
Sept__
100.53
68.44
130.52
120.18 105.04
Oct.-.
100.78
68.26
131.97
Nov...
118.53 106.08
100.85
68.40
132.14
Dec-._
117.04 103.36
102.66
68.26
134.59
120.01 102.18
1964: Jan._.
100.30
68.82
124.51
118. 71 102.56
Feb.101.15
102.70
68.64
124.61
119.54
101.40
Mar...
69.19
121.74
120.06 101.79
102.47
Apr...
104.28
69.
75
126.37
120.68
102.97
May70.50
128.12
118.13 104.40
103.48
June- .
104.52
71.62
130.24
119.78
July—
102.97
71.43
132.65
117.87 104.52
Aug.103.07
70.50
133.32
122.71 109.10
Sept—
104.60
70.31
134.49
122. 71 108.12
Oct...
102.97
109.47
69.55
136.64
Nov*.
104.70
8
)
()
131.03
Dec _.
106.55
138.62
1
131.36
For coverage of series, see footnote 1, Table B-27.
)
* Prior to April 1945, data relate to all employees except executives;
for April 1945-May 1949, mainly to
employees
subject to the Fair Labor Standards Act; and beginning June 1949, to nonsupervisoryemploy.es only
1
Not
available.
4
Nine-month average, April through December, because of new series started in April 1945.
* Preliminary.
NOTE.—See Note, Table B-26.
Data are for production workers in manufacturing and mining, construction workers in contract construction, and for nonsupervisory employees in other industries (except as noted). Data are for pay period
which includes the 12th of the month.
The annual figures for 1964 are the product of unweighted arithmetic averages of average weekly hours
and of average hourly earnings for the 12 months and are not strictly comparable with the averages for
earlier years.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
1940...
1941...
1942...
1943...
1944...
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
224
()
8
(3)
8
8
8
(3)
8
TABLE B-30.—Average weekly hours and hourly earnings, gross and excluding overtime, in
manufacturing industries, 7939—64
All manufacturing industries
Average
weekly
hours
Year or month
Average hourly
earnings
Average
weekly
hours
Average
hourly
earnings
Average
weekly
hours
Excluding
overExExtime
ExExcludcludand
cludcludGross ing Gross ing
interGross
ing
Gross
ing Gross
overover- indusoverovertime
time try shift
time
time
(195759=100;
37.7
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 <
1963: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July_Aug
Sept
_
Oct
Nov
Dec
1964: J a n . .
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov*
Dec*
Durable goods manufac- Nondurable goods manufacturing industries
turing industries
38.1
40.6
43.1
45.0
45.2
43.5
40.3
40.4
40.0
39.1
40.5
40.6
40.7
40.5
39.6
40.7
40.4
39.8
39.2
40.3
39.7
39.8
40.4
40.5
40.7
40.1
40.0
40.2
39.9
40.5
40.8
40.
40.5
40.7
40.8
40.5
40.9
39.8
40.3
40.4
40.5
40.7
40.9
40.7
40.9
40.
40.
40.9
41.3
(0 $0.627
.655
0)
. 726 $0.691
0)
.851 . 7 9 3
0)
.957
.011
.OKI
. 075
0)
.21'
0)
.328
0)
.378
(0
0)
.440
0)
56
0)
65
(0
74
0)
78
(0
86
(0
.95
37.6 2.05
37.5
37.2 2.11
37.6 2.19
37.3 2.26
37.4 2.32
37.6 2.39
37.7 2.46
37.6 2.54
37.6 2.43
37.5 2.43
37.6 2.44
37.5 2.44
37.7 2.45
37.8 2.46
37.6 2.46
37.6 2.43
37.6 2.47
37.8 2.47
37.5 2.49
37.8 2.51
37.1 2.52
37.6 2.51
37.6 2.51
37.6 2.53
37.7 2.53
37.7 2.53
37.7 2.53
37.6 2.52
37.2 2.57
37.4 2.53
37.6 2.56
37.8 2.58
8
.881
.933
«.94i>
1.03f
1.18
1.29
1.34
1.39
1.51
1.59
1.68
1.73
1.79
1.89
1.99
2.05
2.12
2 20
2.25
2.31
2.37
2.44
2.35
2.36
2.36
2.37
2.37
2.37
2.37
2.35
2.38
2.39
2.40
2.42
2.43
2.43
2.43
2.44
2.44
2.44
2.44
2.43
2.46
2.43
2.46
2.47
32.2
(»)
a33.4
2 37.5
a 40.8
2 43.7
»45. 5
2 50.4
57.8
63.2
66.1
68.2
73.6
77.4
81.6
84.3
86.9
91.5
96.2
100.2
103.5
106.8
109 8
112.5
115.4
118.3
114.0
114.4
114.6
114.9
114.9
115.1
115.2
115.0
116.0
116.1
116.8
117.2
117.6
117.7
117.8
118.1
118.2
118.3
118.3
118.3
119.3
118.6
119.3
(9
37.9
39.2
42.0
45.0
46.5
46.5
44. ('
40.4
40.5
40.4
39.4
41.1
41.5
41.5
41.2
40.1
41.3
41.0
40.3
39.5
40.7
40.1
40.3
40.9
41.1
41.4
40.7
40.7
40.8
40.6
41.2
41.6
41.1
41.0
41.3
41.4
41.2
41.6
40.6
41.0
41.0
41.3
41.5
41.7
41.3
41.5
41.5
41.3
41.6
42.2
37.7
38.2
38.1
38.2
38.3
38.3
38.2
38.0
37.8
37.9
38.1
38.4
1.691
.716
. 799
.937
.048
.105
.099
.144
.278
.395
.453
1.519
1.65
1.75
1.86
1.90
1.99
2.08
2.19
2.26
2.36
2.43
2.49
2.56
2.64
2.71
2.60
2.61
2.61
2.62
2.63
2.64
2.63
2.61
2.65
2.66
2.67
2.69
2.69
2.69
2.69
2.70
2.71
2.71
2.71
2.71
2.75
2.70
2.73
2.76
Average
hourly
earnings
ExcludOros* ing
overtime
37.4
m. 762
.872
.966
1.019
1.031
1.111
1.24
1.35
1.42
1.46
1.59
1.68
1.79
1.84
1.91
2.01
2.12
2.21
2.28
2.36
2.42
2.48
2. S4
2.61
2.52
2.53
2.53
2.54
2.54
2.54
2.54
2.52
2.55
2.56
2.57
2.59
2.60
2.60
2.60
2.61
2.61
2.61
2.61
2.60
2.63
2.59
2.62
2.64
37.0
38.9
40.3
42.5
43.1
42.3
40.5
40.2
39.6
38.9
39.7
39.5
39.7
39.6
39.0
39.2
38.8
39.7
39.2
39.3
39.6
39.6
39.7
39.2
39.2
39.4
38.9
39.6
39.9
39.8
40.0
39.9
38.7
39.4
39.5
39.4
39.7
39.9
39.8
40.1
39.6
40.0
39.8
40.0
. 627 $0.
.709
.787
.844
.886
.995
L.145
1.250
1.295
1.347 1.31
1.92
36.8
36.7
36.8
36.5
37.0
37.1
37.0
37.2
36.9
37.0
36.8
37.1
2.05
2.11
2.17
2.22
2.29
2.20
2.20
2.21
2.21
2.21
2.22
2.22
2.21
2.24
2.24
2.25
2.27
2.28
2.29
2.29
2.29
2.29
2.32
36.9 2.30
36.8 2.31
36.9 2.32
36.9
36.7
36.9
37.0
36.9
12 Not available.
April used. Annual average not available.
34 Eleven-month average; August 1945 excluded because of VJ Day holiday period.
Preliminary.
NOTE.—See Note, Table B-26.
Data relate to production workers and are for pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
The annual figures for 1964 are arithmetic averages of the monthly figures shown and are not strictly
comparable with the averages for earlier years, which have been weighted by data on employment (in the
case of hours) and man-hours (in the case of earnings).
See Table B-27 for seasonally adjusted average gross weekly hours.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
225
T A B L E B—31.—Average weekly earnings, gross and spendable, in manufacturing industries,
in current and 1964 prices, 1939-64
Average gross weekly
earnings
Year or month
Current
prices
1064
prices l
Average spendable weekly earnings a
Worker with no
dependents
Current
prices
1964
prices *
Worker with three
dependents
Current
prices
1964
prices i
1939
$23.64
$52.77
$23.37
$52.17
$23.40
$52.23
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
24.96
29.48
36.68
43.07
45.70
55.34
62.06
69.87
77.19
80.60
24.46
27.96
31.80
35.95
37.99
54.24
58.86
60.57
64.43
67.00
24.71
29.19
36.31
41.33
43.76
54.79
61.45
69.16
74.07
77.18
44.20
43.32
49.17
53.12
53.88
76.21
68.87
68.29
68.54
70.16
36.82
37.31
42.10
46.57
47.21
63.48
59.32
58.47
60.09
61.47
42.59
42.79
47.58
52.31
52.95
73.43
68.03
66.08
67.50
58.32
63.34
67.16
70.47
70.49
75.25
75.68
78.46
81.75
81.40
50.26
52.97
55.04
57.59
58.45
64.85
63.29
64.30
66.81
67.49
56.36
60.18
62.98
65.60
65.65
72.72
71.90
73.57
76.10
75.81
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
_-
_
_..
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
_.
75.70
78.78
81.59
82.71
88.26
87.72
89.93
89.96
88.74
93.99
62.51
64.92
66.93
67.82
71.89
72.43
74.11
73.79
72.77
76.56
69.79
72.25
74.31
75.23
79.40
80.87
82.48
81.93
80.72
84.56
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964»
—
89.72
92.34
96.56
99.63
103.38
94.05
95.79
99.04
100.94
103.38
72.57
74.60
77.86
79.82
84.73
76.07
77.39
79.86
80.87
84.73
80.11
82.18
85.53
87.58
92.52
83.97
85.25
87.72
88.73
92.52
1963: J a n . . .
Feb..
Mar..
99.33
Mayl
June.
97.44
97.20
98.09
97.36
99.23
100.37
99.14
101.05
101.80
78.11
77.92
78.63
78.04
79.51
80.38
79.62
79.43
80.07
79.47
80.97
81.52
85.78
85.58
86.31
85.72
87.25
88.18
87.44
87.24
87.89
87.29
88.85
89.43
July_.
Aug..
Sep..
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
99.63
98.42
100.53
100.78
100.85
102.66
100.53
99.31
101.44
101. 59
101.46
103.18
79.82
78.89
80.51
80.70
80.75
82.14
80.54
79.61
81.24
81.35
81.24
82.55
87.58
86.58
88.31
88.52
88.58
90.06
88.38
S7.37
89.11
89.23
89.11
90.51
1964: J a n . .
Feb_.
Mar__
Apr..
May.
June.
100.30
101.15
101.40
102.47
102.97
103.48
100.70
101.66
82.30
82.97
83.16
84.01
84.40
84.80
82.63
101.81
102.78
103.28
103.58
90.68
90.89
91.77
92.18
92.60
90.24
91.14
91.26
92.05
92.46
92.69
July..
Aug..
Sep..
Oct..
Nov3.
Dec'.
102.97
103.07
104.60
102.97
104.70
106.55
102.76
102.97
104.29
102.56
104.08
)
84 40
84.48
84.23
84.40
85.43
84.06
85.26
92.18
92.26
93.53
92.18
92.00
92.17
93.25
91.81
93.05
84.40
85.77
87.22
83.49
84.26
84.65
84.88
(0
95.13
i Estimates in current prices divided by the consumer price index on a 1964 base (using 11-month average).
> Average gross weekly earnings less social security and income taxes.
»Preliminary.
«Not available.
NOTE.—See Note, Table B-26.
Data relate to production workers and are for pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
The annual figures for 1964 are the product of unweighted arithmetic averages of average weekly hours
and of average hourly earnings for the 12 months and are not strictly comparable with the averages for
earlier years.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning January 1959.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
226
T A B L E B-32.—Indexes of output per man-hour and related data,
1947-64
[1957-59=100]
Output per man-hour
Output i
Nonagricultural
industries
Year
Total Agripri- culvate ture
ManTotal ufacturing
Man-hours
Nonagricultural
industries
Nonagricultural
industries
Total AgriTotal AgriNon- pri- culNon- pri- culNonMan- manMan- manman- vate ture
vate ture
ufacufacufacTotal ufacTotal tur- ufacturturing turing turing
ing
ing
Establishment basis 2
1947...
1948...
1949...
70.9
73.4
75.5
50.2
59.6
56.8
76.3
77.9
80.8
75.1
78.2
81.8
76.8
77.5
80.5
68.4
71.2
70.8
81.2
92.8
88.0
67.7
70.0
69.8
71.4
73.9
70.4
65.9
68.1
69.6
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
80.9
82.9
84.7
88.2
89.8
64.7
64.0
69.9
77.8
83.4
85.1
86.5
87.6
90.0
91.4
85.1
87.1
88.2
89.5
90.9
84.9
86.0
87.1
90.0
91.4
77.3
82.0
84.4
88.6
87.2
92.8
87.0
90.4
93.7
97.6
76.4
81.7
84.1
88.3
86.6
79.6
87.6
90.2
96.1
89.2
74.9 95.6 143.4
78.9 98.9 136.0
81.2 99.6 129.4
84.6 100.5 120.5
85.3 97.1 117.0
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
93.8 86.4 95.3 96.8 94.3 95.0
93.9 88.3 94.9 95.1 94.6 97.0
97.2 94.2 97.6 97.8 97.5 98.9
99.6 103.0 99.4 99.1 99.7 97.0
103.2 102.8 103.0 103.3 102.8 104.1
102.9 94. F,
100.5 96.8
99.0 98. i
100. f 96.8
100.0 104.3
1960.-.
1961...
1962.__
1963.__
1964 3..
105.2
108.9
113.8
117.0
120.5
104.8
104.8
104.8
108.7
108.2
109.3
116.3
119.1
130.3
134.4
104.6
107.8
112.6
115.0
118.3
103i8
106.7
112.6
115.4
119.7
105.1
108.5
112.5
115.1
117.7
106.8
108.7
115.7
119.8
125.6
106.9
108.9
116.4
120.4
126.6
96.5 161.8
97.0 155.8
93.8 154.8
95.1
94.5
86.1
85.8
87.9
86.5
89.8 93.5
94.4 100.6
96.0 102.3
98.1 107.4
94.7 98.1
88.2
91.7
93.2
94.0
93.3
88.7
89.9
86.4
100.3 91.8
100.0 95.3
101.2 97.9
94.2 98.0
104.6 104.1
101.3 119.1 99.2 103.6 97.3
103.3 113.8 102.0 105.2 100.7
101.7 105.1 101.3 103.5 100.4
97.4 97.6 97.4 95.1 98.3
100.9 97.3 101.3 101.3 101.3
104.8
104.8
115.2
119.2
126.3
101.5
99.8
101.7
102.4
104.2
107.9
110.9
116.9
121.1
126.8
95.9
90.1
88.0
83.4
80.5
102.2
101.0
103.4
104.7
107.0
101.0
98.2
102.3
103.3
105.5
102.7
102.2
103.9
105.2
107.7
Labor force basis 4
81.2 67.7
(56) 68.4
71.2 92.8 70.0
70.8
((*)5) 77.3 88.0 69.8
1950...
77.5 64.5 81.4 ( )
92.8 76.4
1951...
81.1 63.6 84.7 ( )
87.0 81.7
(8) 82.0
1952...
83.7 69.4 86.7 («)
84.4
84.1
(•)(5) 88.6 90.4
1953...
87.5 77.3 89.5 ( )
93.7 88.3
1954...
89.7 83.0 91.5 (•)
87.2
97.6
86.6
((•)fi) 95.0 102.9 94.5
94.1 85.9 95.8 ( )
1955...
1956...
94.4 87.8 95.7 0)
100.5 96.8
(55) 97.0
1957...
97.5 94.2 98.0 (*)
98.9 99.0 98.9
(
)
1958...
99.1 103.1 98.8 ( )
97.0
100.5 96.8
5
((5)) 104.1 100.0
1959... 103.4 102.7 103.2 ( )
104.3
(
5 ) 106.8 104.8 106.9
104.8 109.3 104.1 ( )
I960.-.
1961... 107.5 116.8 106.1
(5s) 108.7
104.8 108.9
1962... 112.4 119.4 111.1
115.7 104.8 116.4
(
)
1963... 115.5 130.6 113.2 85
119.8
108.7 120.4
5
1964 3.. 118.8 134.9 116.1 8
(( )) (((5))) 125.6 108.2 126.6
* Output refers to gross national product in 1954 prices.
1947...
1948._.
1949...
68.5
70.6
72.0
50.2
59.6
56.4.
73.8 (•)
74. 5 (88)
76.9 ( )
8
5
5
fi
5
8
5
(•)
(88)
()
(55)
(5)
()
99.8 161.8
100.9 155.6
98.3 156.1
91.7
93.9
90.8
(55)
(5)
()
(8)
(«)
(•)
(*)
(8)
(55)
()
(88)
(8)
()
99.7
101.1
100.8
101.3
97.2
93.9
96.5
97.0
98.7
94.6
(5s)
()
<•)
(58)
()
(55)
(5)
(5)
(5)
()
(55)
(5)
(8)
()
(5)
(55)
(8)
(5)
()
(S)
(8)
(*)
(5)
(«)
(*)
101.0 119.8 98.6
102.7 114.5 101.2
101.4 105.1 100.9
97.9 97.5 98.0
100.7 97.4 101.1
101.9 95.9 102.7
101.1 89.7 102.6
102.9 87.8 104.8
103.7 83.2 106.4
105.7 80.2 109.0
8
(*)(•)
(«)(8)
((888>)
((«)>
143.9
136.8
130.2
121.2
117.6
>1 Man-hour estimates based primarily on establishment data.
Preliminary.
« Man-hour estimates based primarily on labor force data.
«Not available.
NOTE.—For information on sources and methodology, see Bureau of Labor Statistics (Department of
Labor) Bulletin No. 1249, Trends in Output per Man-hour in the Private Economy, 1909-68.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
227
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
TABLE B-33.—Industrial production indexes, industry groupings, 7947-64
[1957-59=100]
Manufacturing
Year or month
Durable manufactures
Total
industrial
produc- Total
tion i
Total
Primary
metals
FabriTrans- Instruments Clay, Furnicated
porta- and
ture
re- glass,
Mametal chinery
tion
and
lated
and
prodequip- prodmiscellumber laneous
ucts
ment
ucts
194719481949-
65.7
68.4
64.7
66.4
68.9
65.1
64.3
67.0
60.9
90.7
94.3
79.4
75.9
77.2
65.3
66.5
59.0
42.9
46.9
47.1
53.7
55.2
49.2
75.8
79.7
72.3
73.5
77.4
71.6
195019511952..
19531954-
74.9
81.3
84.3
91.3
85.8
75.8
81.9
85.2
92.7
86.3
74.1
83.5
88.5
99.9
88.4
99.9
108.7
99.3
112.5
91.3
85.4
91.2
89.0
100.3
90.2
72.7
83.0
92.1
100.5
87.7
56.4
62.9
73.1
91.7
83.8
57.3
65.7
78.1
85.3
82.9
87.7
92.0
89.3
92.7
89.6
83.7
80.2
82.4
89.7
86.8
19551956195719581959-
96.6
99.9
100.7
93.7
105.6
97.3
100.2
100.8
93.2
106.0
101.9
104.0
104.0
90.3
105.6
118.4
116.4
112.2
87,5
100.4
98.3
98.8
101.5
92.9
105.5
96.5
107.1
104.2
88.8
107.1
102.0
97.4
106.4
89.5
104.0
88.7
95.4
98.0
92.1
109.9
100.7
102.0
97.5
94.1
108.5
97.9
101.0
97.6
93.3
109.0
19601961196219631964 2.
108.7
109.7
118.3
124.3
131.9
108.9
109.6
118.7
124.9
132.8
108.5
107.0
117.9
124.5
133.2
101.3
98.9
104.6
113.3
128.1
107.6
106.5
117.1
123.4
132.6
110.8
110.4
123.5
129.2
140.9
108.2
103.6
118.3
127.0
130.7
116.5
115.8
123.0
130.2
136.4
105.7
104.5
109.3
114.4
121.2
113.3
114.1
124.5
129.1
138.4
Seasonally adjusted
May..
June..
119.8
120.6
121.9
122.7
124.4
125.6
120.3
121.0
122.5
123.3
125.0
126.3
119.6
120.4
121.9
123.1
125.2
127.1
100.7
104.4
112.1
119.1
127.5
127.2
118.9
119.8
120.1
120.2
122.1
123.9
125.6
126.3
126.3
126.2
127.0
128.9
123.6
122.9
123.2
123.9
124.8
130.3
126.1
128.1
128.8
128.4
129.5
130.2
109.8
109.9
113.2
113.3
113.8
113.8
125.8
125.8
126.2
126.4
128.1
128.5
July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec...
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
126.1
125.7
126.2
126.8
126.9
127.9
126.1
125.0
125.6
126.0
126.4
127.3
121.4
109.5
107.8
108.5
109.7
110.5
124.4
125.7
125.6
126.8
126.0
126.8
129.6
130.3
131.9
131.7
132.8
133.9
127.6
128.2
129.4
130.0
129.6
131.3
131.0
131.1
132.4
132.5
131.9
132.7
114.0
115.0
115.9
117.4
117.2
117.0
130.4
130.5
131.1
130.8
131.8
132.6
1964: Jan...
Feb...
Mar..
MPay"
June.,
127.7
128.2
129.0
130.5
131.3
131.6
128.5
129.1
129.9
131.4
132.2
132.4
128.1
128.9
130.0
131.6
132.6
133.2
113.6
117.6
120.9
123.8
127.1
126.1
128.2
129.0
129.3
129.5
130.3
130.6
134.7
133.6
135.9
137.5
138.5
140.1
130.8
131.1
130.1
133.0
134.1
134.9
132.2
133.6
134.2
134.7
134.6
134.8
117.9
121.6
121.9
121.6
120.9
120.1
133.0
133.9
134.7
135.6
136.2
138.0
July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec*.
132.9
133.8
134.0
131.4
134.8
137.0
133.9
134.5
134.9
131.8
135.7
138.2
135.0
135.7
135.2
129.6
136.5
140.2
131.2
132.8
132.8
131.9
134.2
137
133.3
134.8
134.3
130.8
136.9
141.9
142.8
144.1
144.7
146.9
134.3
135.3
130.9
105.3
129.5
136.4
137.4
138.6
137.6
140.4
122.6
121.4
120.7
121.0
120.5
138.5
139.0
138.4
141.7
143.5
145
1963: Jan...
Feb....
Mar._
Apr-
See footnotes at end of table.
228
139
149
141
142
120
TABLE B-33.—Industrial production indexes, industry groupings, 1947-64—Continued
[1957-59=100]
Manufacturing
Nondurable manufactures
Year or month
Total
Textile,
apparel, Paper
and
and
leather
products printing
ChemFoods,
ical,
beverpetroages,
leum,
and
and
rubber tobacco
products
Mining
Utilities
1947..
19481949-
67.2
69.5
68.3
81.0
84.5
80.6
56.7
69.4
69.3
47.5
50.8
49.4
80.7
80.0
80.8
79.9
84.0
74.5
36.5
40.8
43.4
19501951195219531954-
76.0
78.5
80.0
83.6
83.6
89.1
87.4
89.5
90.7
86.9
76.7
79.4
77.7
82.6
85.0
60.7
67.4
69.9
75.2
74.7
83.6
85.4
87.3
88.2
89.8
83.2
91.3
90.5
92.9
90.2
49.5
56.4
61.2
66.8
71.8
1955..
1956195719581959-
91.6
95.4
96.7
96.8
106.5
95.5
98.0
96.9
95.0
108.1
92.5
97.1
97.8
97.0
105.2
86.8
91.4
95.6
95.5
108.9
93.1
96.6
96.7
99.4
103.9
99.2
104.8
104.6
95.6
99.7
80.2
87.9
93.9
98.1
108.0
19601961-_
1962 „
1963..
1964 2.
109.5
112.9
119.8
125.3
132.3
107.5
108.4
115.1
118.5
125.0
109.0
112.4
116.7
120.1
127.5
113.9
118.9
131.2
141.8
151.9
106.6
110.2
113.3
116.8
120.4
101.6
102.6
105.0
107.9
110.9
115.6
122.3
131.4
140.0
150.0
Seasonally adjusted
1963: Jan...
Feb..
Mar_
Apr_.
MayJune.
121.3
121.8
123.3
123. 7
124.8
125.2
116.0
115.8
116.5
116.4
116.9
117.9
114.8
115.7
115.7
119.0
121.3
121.4
135.3
136.4
138.9
140.0
140.3
140.8
115.1
115.1
117.3
115.0
116.5
116.8
103.6
105.6
105.8
107.0
108.7
109.2
135.9
137.8
137.0
136.5
138.7
140.2
July.
Aug_
Sept..
Oct...
Nov_
Dec_.
126.0
126.6
127.0
127.7
127.6
128.7
118.9
119.9
120.6
120.7
121.3
121.3
121.2
121.9
121.6
121.7
121.7
123.9
142.2
143.2
144.7
146.2
146.0
146.3
117.6
117.4
116.8
117.8
117.1
118.8
110.1
111.1
109.9
108.6
107.5
107.3
141.9
142.4
142.1
142.3
142.1
143.0
1964: Jan__
Feb..
Mar_
Apr_.
May.
June.
128.9
129.4
129.8
131.1
131.7
131.5
120.7
122.4
121.7
121.6
123.5
122.9
123.4
124.5
125.4
127.5
128.2
126.6
146.4
146.9
147.4
149.5
150.0
152.1
120.2
119.5
120.2
121.2
120.7
119.5
108.8
108.9
108.8
109.9
111.3
111.4
144.5
143.4
144.8
147.5
148.3
149.7
JulyAug_.
Sept..
Oct..
Nov..
Dec 2 .
132.5
133.1
134.4
134.5
134.7
135.7
124.9
126.0
126.8
128.5
129.9
128.0
127.9
128.2
128.5
128.8
152.3
153.6
156.9
155.4
154.7
120.5
120.5
120.0
120.9
121.7
131
130
110.9
111.9
111.9
111.9
112.8
112.3
151.4
154.5
153.2
153.6
153.5
154.5
156
122
1 Annual indexes for 1929-46 are, respectively: 38.4, 32.0, 26.5, 20.7, 24.4, 26.6, 30.7, 36.3, 39.7, 31.4, 38.3,
43.9, 56.4, 69.3, 82.9, 81.7, 70.5, and 59.5.
2 Preliminary.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
229
TABLE B-34.—Industrial production indexes, market groupings, 1947-64
[1957-59-100]
Final products
Year or month
Total
industrial
producTotal
tion
Consumer goods
l
Materials
Equipment
Dur- NonTotal,
AutoTotal able durable
motive Home includ- Busigoods goods
Total prod- goods
ing
defense
ucts
1949-
65.7
68.4
64.7
64.2
66.6
64.5
67.1
69.2
68.8
69.4
72.6
72.0
68.8
71.7
66.3
55.4
58.3
52.0
69.9
72.6
63.5
67.0
70.2
64.8
68.2
71.0
64.2
64.9
68.2
64.2
1950..
1951..
195219531954-
74.9
81.3
84.3
91.3
85.8
72.8
78.6
84.3
89.9
85.7
78.6
77.8
79.5
85.0
84.3
90.6
80.1
72.1
91.3
85.0
91.4
78.7
78.8
90.2
86.0
56.4
78.4
94.1
100.5
88.9
68.0
83.1
94.1
96.6
85.1
76.9
83.8
84.3
92.6
85.9
79.5
87.8
88.9
100.7
88.4
73.3
78.8
79.0
84.1
83.3
19551956195719581959-
100.7
93.7
105.6
98.1
99.4
94.8
105.7
93.3
95.5
97.0
96.4
106.6
118.3
97.8
105.2
86.7
108.1
97.3
100.9
96.6
92.8
110.7
95.0
103.7
104.6
91.3
104.1
91.9
104.7
105.3
89.8
104.9
99.0
101.6
101.9
92.7
105.4
104.7
105.3
104.8
90.0
105.1
93.0
97.7
98.9
95.4
105.7
1960..
19611962._
19631964 2.
108.7
109.7
118.3
124.3
131.9
109.9
111.2
119.7
124.9
131.5
111.0
112.6
119.7
125.2
131.2
123.2
111.8
131.1
141.2
145.2
110.8
112.2
122.2
129.6
140.0
107.0
108.3
119.6
124.2
132.1
110.2
110.1
122.1
128.3
139.0
107.6
108.4
117.0
123.7
132.4
106.6
104.8
114.1
121.2
131.0
108.7
112.2
120.0
126.3
133.8
19471948..
Seasonally adjusted
1963: Jan...
Feb..
Mar.
Apr_.
May.
June.
119.8
120.6
121.9
122.7
124.4
125.6
122.1
122.6
123.3
122.7
123.7
125.1
122.2
122.8
124.0
123.2
124.3
125.9
137.1
137.5
136.8
137.2
137.6
145.7
125.4
126.2
127.4
126.8
128.8
129.8
122.0
122.2
122.0
121.8
122.5
123.5
125.5
125.8
125.6
125.2
126.0
127.4
117.7
118.7
120.8
122.7
125.2
125.9
114.1
115.1
118.4
121.1
124.3
125.3
121.3
122.5
123.3
124.3
126.2
126.5
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
125.2
126.0
126.3
127.2
127.0
128.0
125.8
126.5
126.4
127.4
126.9
128.0
140.2
141.4
143.0
145.8
145.8
146.1
129.7
131.3
131.8
131.3
133.3
134.2
124.0
125.0
126.0
127.0
127.1
128.1
128.4
129.7
130.7
131.8
132.0
132.9
126.0
124.9
125.0
125.5
125.7
125.9
124.6
121.4
122.1
122.3
122.6
122.6
127.5
128.4
128.0
128.8
128.9
129.3
1964: Jan...
Feb_.
Mar..
Apr..
May.
JuneJuly..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec 2 .
127.7
128.2
129.0
130.5
131.3
131.6
128.5
128.1
128.7
130.6
131.1
131.7
128.9
128.8
128.8
130.8
131.0
131.5
146.6
145.5
144.3
149.3
151.4
151.7
134.8
137.3
136.4
137.7
136.9
137.8
127.9
127.1
128.8
130.7
131.3
132.0
132.9
131.9
134.2
136.5
138.0
139.0
126.7
128.1
129.3
130.6
131.3
131.8
123.0
125.8
127.3
129.0
129.8
130.8
130.4
130.6
130.8
132.3
132.8
132.9
132.9
133.8
134.0
131.4
134.8
137.0
132.3
133.3
132.5
130.3
134.7
137.3
132.1
133.1
132.0
129.2
133.7
136.8
152.6
155.8
144.7
105.9
143.0
139.7
140.1
139.8
142.4
147.0
132.7
133.6
133.7
132.6
136.7
138.5
140.0
141.6
141.8
140.7
145.9
133.6
134.7
135.6
132.1
135.4
136.8
132.7
134.1
135.6
128.2
134.4
134.6
135.2
135.7
136.2
136.4
138
167
1
Also includes apparel and consumer staples, not shown separately.
2 Preliminary.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
230
148
136
TABLE B-35.-—Manufacturing capacity, output, and utilization rate,1948-64
Period
1948
1949
Capacity *
Output
(1957-59=
100)
Utilization
rate
(percent) 2
80
84
69
65
1950
1951
1952
19531954..
87
90
94
100
104
76
82
85
93
86
86
78
88
91
90
93
83
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
108
113
119
122
125
97
100
101
93
106
90
88
85
76
84
131
134
139
145
152
109
110
119
125
133
83
82
85
86
87
. -
--
1960
1961
1962
1963
19643
Se asonally adjust ed
130
131
132
133
112
110
109
105
86
84
82
79
1961: I
II
III
IV
133
134
134
136
103
108
112
115
78
81
84
85
1962" I
II
III
IV
137
138
140
141
117
119
120
120
85
86
86
85
1963: I
II
III
IV
142
144
146
147
121
125
126
127
85
87
86
86
1964: I
II
III
IV 3
149
151
153
155
129
132
134
135
87
88
88
87
I960* I
II
III
IV .__
__.
1
For description and source of data see Frank de Leeuw "The Concept of Capacity" Journal of the American Statistical Association, December 1962, vol. 57, pp. 826-84, and Peter Gajewski "Manufacturing Capacity
Measures and Current Economic Analysis," a paper presented at the 1964 American Statistical Association
Meetings. See also McGraw-Hill surveys on "Business Plans for New Plants and Equipment" for data
on2 capacity and operating rates.
Output as percent of capacity; based on unrounded data.
3
Preliminary.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (output) and sources in footnote 1 (capacity
and utilization rate).
231
TABLE B-36.—Mew construction activity, 1929-64
[Value put in place, millions of dollars]
Private construction
Year or month
Total
new
construction
Total i
Total»
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945 . . .
1946
1946 new series »_
1947__
_1948
_
1949.
1950
1951..
1952
1953...
1954
1955.
_
1956
1957
-.
1958...
1959«
I960..
1961
1962...
1963
19647
10,793
8,741
6,427
3,538
2,879
3,720
4,232
6,497
6,999
6,980
8,198
8,682
11,957
14,075
8,301
5,259
5,809
12,627
14,308
20,041
26,078
26,722
33,575
35,435
36,828
39,136
41,380
46,519
47,601
49,139
50,153
55,305
53,941
55,447
59,453
62,451
Nonresidential building and other
Public
construction
conAddistrucCom- In- Public
tions
tion
and
Total mer- dusutil- Other*
alteracial' trial
ity
tions
Residential building
(nonfarm)
8,307
New
housing
units
3,040
340 4,682 1,135
949
893
532
1,570
305 3,808
221
175 2,203
454
1,320
1,046
74
105
223
485
176
761
145
130
290
191
884
200
173
380
158
250
989
211
710
266
295 1,416
290
1,210
492
320
387
1,475
232
295 1,570
285
1,620
254
320 1,709
292
2,270
335 2,069
2,560
348
442
2,696
375
3,040
409
801
225 1,700
1,440
155
346
160 1,094
710
33
156
220 1,371
570
56
208
516 2,135
720
203
642
1.307 5,644 1,153 1,689
3,300
1,307 5,830 1,153 1,689
4,795
7,765
1,960 6,872
957 1,702
2,467 8,246
10,506
,397 1,397
8,025
2,200
,182
10,043
972
15,551
2,400 8,583
,415 1,062
2,484 10,299
13,207
,498 2,117
12,851
2,767 10,246
,137 2,320
13,411
2,916 11,300
,791 2,229
2,960 11,481 2,212 2,030
14,931
18, 242 3,296 12,927 3,218 2,399
3,588 14,691 3,631 3,084
16,143
3,769 16,074 3,564 3,557
14,736
3,711 14,907 3,589 2,382
15,445
34,696
4,253 14,984 3,930 2,106
19,233
39,235
16,372 4,180 2,851
38,078
16,410
16,619 4,674 2,780
38,299
16,189
17,403 4,955 2,949
41,695
18,638
17,929 5,200 2,962
43,772
20,064
19,387 5,635 3,333
45,893
20,534
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
41,982 24,871 19,220
17, 111 ,959 2,960
,928 2,912
41,804 24,804 19,135
17,000
42,018 24,919 19,234
17,099 5,002 2,864
,946 2.831
42,646 25,271 19,571
17,375
42,954 25,630 19,932
17,324 :,848 2,794
,828 2,825
43,175 25,786 20,088
17,389
43,693 25,843 20,116
17,850 5,044
44,305 25,752 19,944
18,553 5,449 1,005
44,633 25,953 20,059
18,680 5,671 3,049
45,365 26,584 20,660
18,781 5,518 3.085
45,488 27,000 21,073
18,488 5,469 3,136
45,778
18,882 5,515 3,158
20,954
45,440. 26,907 21,010
18,633 5,499 3,060
46,274 27,600 21,748
18,674 5,546 3,058
46,923 28,123 22,262
18,800 5,668 3,074
46,449 27,538 21,610
18,911 5,561 3,076
45,780 26,678 20,708
19,102 5,542 3,149
46.006 26,612 120,628
19,394 5,562 3,204
46,261 26,708 20,693
19,553 5,574 3,334
45,906 26,342 20,268
19,564 5,609 3,605
45,861 25,972 19,856
19,889 5,746 3,514
45,521 25,679 19,622
19,842 5,776 3,540
45,531 25,582 19,620
19,949 5,767 3,655
45,402 25,416 19,512
19,986 5,639 3,791
3,768
1,676
1,231
1,509
1,999
2,981
3,903
3,560
4,389
5,054
6,206
3,415
1,979
2,186
3,411
10,396
12,077
16,722
21,374
20,453
26,709
26,180
26,049
27,894
29,668
34,804
34,869
3,625
2,075
1,565
630
470
625
1,010
1,565
1,875
1,990
2,680
2,985
3,510
1,715
885
815
1,276
4,752
6,247
9,850
13,128
12,428
18,126
15,881
15,803
16,594
18,187
21,877
20,178
19,006
19,789
24,251
21,706
21,680
24,292
25,843
26,506
1,578
1.527
946
467
261
1,020
856
582
282
194
194
257
518
342
444
705
448
605
480
683
508
771
614
872
413
786
570
335
725
382
827
463
1,374 1,428
1,255 1,733
2,126 2,087
2,776 2,676
2,994 2,877
3,045 3,061
3,357 3,327
3,533 3,256
3,973 3,307
3,685 3,554
3,770 3,540
4,361 3,615
4,908 4,045
4,688 4,248
4,521 4,427
4,621 4,720
4,335 4,830
4,318 5,181
4,494 5,273
4,782 5,637
2,486
2,858
2,659
1,862
1,648
2,211
2,233
3,516
3,096
3,420
3,809
3,628
5,751
10,660
6,322
3,073
2,398
2,231
2.231
3,319
4,704
6,269
6,866
9,255
10,779
11,242
11,712
11,715
12,732
14,059
15,457
16,070
15,863
17,148
17,758
18,679
20,005
60,100
4,090 5,102 18,118
1963: Jan
,022 5,138 17,682
Feb
_ 59,486
,104 5,129 18,217
60,235
Mar
Apr
59,825
5,121 17,179
:,477
,542
May
60,353
5,140 17,399
,543 5,193 18,905
June
62,080
62,265
,619 5,291 18,572
July
63,653
,704 5,395 19,348
Aug
63,530
1,540 5,420 18,897
Sept
64,966
4,772 5,406 19,601
Oct
4,473 5,410 19,584
65,072
Nov
1,753 5,456 19,415
65,193
Dec
64,684
1,547 5,427 19,244
1964: Jan
65,528
5,523 19,254
,647
Feb
66,509
,518 5,540 19,586
Mar
66,615
4,660 5,614 20,166
Apr
64,983
4,746 5,665 19,203
May
66,576
4,832 5,796 20,570
June
66,641
4,828 5,817 20,380
July
65,991
4,670 5,780 20,085
Aug
66,454
4,923 5,706 20,593
Sept
65,335
4,915 5,611 19,814
Oct
4,969 5,558 20,155
Nov 7
5,009 5,547 20,307
65,709
Dec?
» Data in this table do not agree with the new construction expenditures included in the gross national
product. The latter data include expenditures for crude petroleum and natural gas well drilling, and do
not reflect revisions in the "new series" presented above. (See Table B-l.)
> Total includes nonhousekeeping units, not shown separately. Beginning with I960, additions and
alterations, also included in total, are not shown separately.
* Office buildings, warehouses, stores, restaurants, and garages.
* Farm, institutional, and all other.
»New series differs from old in that it reflects differences in 1946 due to the new higher level series of
housing starts and farm construction expenditues and the new reduced level value in place series for Public
Utility construction. See Census Bureau's Construction Report CS0-6t {.Supplement) for a description of
the differences.
* See footnote 3, Table B-37. 'preliminary.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
232
TABLE B-37.—New public construction activity, 1929-64
[Value put in place, millions of dollars]
Total new public construction»
Major types of new public construction
Federal
Year
All
public
sources
Direct Federal
aid
State
and
local
Highway
Sewer
Conand
Hoswater servation
Educa- pital
and
and
tional institumiscel- and
delaneous
tional public velopservice ment
MiliAll
tary
other
facili- public
*
ties
1929
2,486
155
80
2,251
1,266
389
101
404
115
19
192
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
2,858
2,659
1,862
1,648
2,211
209
271
333
516
626
104
235
111
286
721
2,545
2,153
1,418
846
864
1,516
1,355
958
847
1,000
364
285
130
52
148
118
110
83
49
51
500
479
291
160
228
137
156
150
359
518
29
40
34
36
47
194
234
216
145
219
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
2,233
3,516
3,096
3,420
3,809
814
797
776
717
759
567
1,566
1,117
1,320
1,377
852
1,153
1,203
1,383
1,673
845
1,362
1,226
1,421
1,381
153
366
253
311
468
38
74
73
97
127
246
509
445
492
507
700
658
605
551
570
37
29
37
62
125
214
518
457
486
631
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
3,628
5,751
10,660
6,322
3,073
1,182
3,751
9,313
5,609
2,505
946
697
475
268
126
1,500
1,303
872
445
442
1,302
1,066
734
446
362
156
158
128
63
41
54
42
35
44
58
469
393
254
156
125
528
500
357
285
163
385
1,620
5,016
2,550
837
734
1,972
4,136
2,778
1,487
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
2,398
2,231
3,319
4,704
6,269
1,737
865
840
1,177
1,488
99
244
409
417
461
562
1,122
2,070
3,110
4,320
398
764
1,344
1,661
2,015
59
101
287
618
934
85
85
77
213
458
152
278
492
699
803
130
260
424
670
852
690
188
204
158
137
884
555
491
685
1,070
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
6,866
9,255
10,779
11,242
11,712
1,624
2,981
4,185
4,139
3,428
454
464
550
700
675
4,788
5,810
6,044
6,403
7,609
2,134
2,355
2,677
3,021
3,714
1,133
1,513
1,619
1,714
2,134
499
527
495
369
333
819
959
958
1,050
1,171
942
912
900
892
773
177
887
1,387
1,290
1,003
1,162
2,102
2,743
2,906
2,584
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 3
11,715
12,732
14,059
15,457
16,070
2,769
2,726
2,974
3,387
3,724
739
857
1,269
2,106
2,711
8,207
9,149
9,816
9,964
9,635
3,852
4,415
4,934
5,545
5,761
2,442
2,556
2,825
2,875
2,656
300
300
354
390
428
1,318
1,659
1,737
1,838
2,018
701
826
971
1,019
1,121
1,287
1,360
1,287
1,402
1,465
1,815
1,616
1,951
2,388
2,621
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 *
15,863
- 17,148
17,758
18,679
20,005
3,622
3,879
3,796
4,050
4,134
2,267
2,426
2,558
2,982
3,320
9,974
10,843
11,404
11,647
12,551
5,437
5,854
6,378
6,670
6,946
2,818
3,052
2,984
3,043
3,338
401
369
397
454
520
2,136
2,168
2,232
2,430
2,774
1,175
1,384
1,460
1,553
1,616
1,366
1,371
1,222
(8)
(5)
2,530
2,950
3,085
3,206
3,510
1
For expenditures classified b y ownership, combine "Federal aid" and "State and local" columns to
obtain State and local ownership. "Direct" column stands as it is for Federal ownership.
* Includes nonresidential buildings (other than educational and hospital and institutional), residential
buildings, and miscellaneous public construction such as parks and playgrounds, memorials, etc.
* Beginning with 1959, data include estimates for Alaska and Hawaii. Comparability with earlier data
is not seriously affected since these two States accounted for less than two-thirds of one percent of total new
public
construction in 1959.
4
Preliminary.
* Data for 1963 and 1964 military facilities are not available separately b u t estimates are included in
totals.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
233
TABLE B-38.—New housing starts and applications for financing, 1929-64
[Thousands of units]
Housing starts
Year or
month
Total
private
and
public
(ineluding
farm)*
Private nonfarm
Total
private
(Including
farm)
Private nonfarm
Total
PriGovernvate
private
ment home
and
Two
eludprograms
public
or
non- TotaP One- more
ing Total
farm
family fami- farm)
lies
FHA VA
Proposed
home construction *
New
private
housAp- Reing
units plica- quests
autions for
thorfor
ized
FHA VA
apcom- praismit- als
ments
509.0
509.0
316.0 193.0
509.0
1930
1931
1932.
1933
1934
330.0
254.0
134.0
93.0
126.0
330.0
254.0
134.0
93.0
126.0
227.0 103.0
187.0 67.0
118.0 16.0
76.0 17.0
109.0 17.0
330.0
254.0
134.0
93.0
126.0
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
221.0
319.0
336.0
406.0
515.0
215.7
304.2
332.4
399.3
458.4
182.2
238.5
265.8
316.4
373.0
33.5
65.7
66.6
82.9
85.4
215.7 13.2
304.2 48.8
332.4 57.0
399.3 106.8
458.4 144.7
•20.6
47.8
49.8
131.1
179.8
602.6
706.1
356.0
191.0
141.8
529.6
619.5
301.2
183.7
138.7
447.6
533.2
252.3
136.3
114.6
82.0
86.3
48.9
47.4
24.1
529.6
619.5
301.2
183.7
138.7
231.2
288.5
238.5
144.4
62.9
1929 .
..
- -
1940
1941
1942
1943.
1944
176.6
217.1 -----160.2
126.1
83.6
---------
New Series
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
326.1 324.9
1,023.2 1,015.2
1,268.5 1,265.1
1,362.1 1,344.0
1,466.1 1,429.8
324.9 38.9 <8.8
1,015.2 67.1 91.8
1.265.1 178.3 160.3
1,344.0 216.4 71.1
1,429.8 252.6 90.8
56.6
121.7
286.4
293.2
327.0
1950__
1951
1952
1953
1954
1,951.9 1,908.1
1,491.0 1,419.8
1,503.9 1,445. 4
1,437.6 1,402.1
1,550. 5 1,531.8
1,908.1
1.419.8
1,445.4
1,402.1
1,531. 8
328.2
186.9
229.1
216.5
250.9
191.2
148.6
141.3
156.5
307.0
397.7
192.8
267.9
253.7
338.6
164.4
226.3
251.4
535.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1,646.0 1,626.6
1,626.6
1,349.1 1,324.9
1,324.9
1,174. 8
1,223.9 1,174.8
1,314. 2
1,382.0 1,314. 2
1,553. 5 1,516.8 1,531.3 1,494.6 1,211.9 282.7 1,516. 8 1,494.6
268.7
183.4
150.1
270.3
307.0
392.9
270.7
128.3
102.1
109.3
306.2
197.7
198.8
341.7
1,208.3 369.7
620.8
401.5
159.4
234.2
234.0
1960
1961
1962
1963
19645
1,296.0 1, 252.1 1,274.0 1,230.1
1,365.0 1,313.0 1,336.8 1,284.8
1,492.4 1,462.8 1,468.7 1,439.1
1,640.9 1,609. 2 1,613. 4 1,581. 7
1,575.7 1,543.9 1,548.7 1,516.9
225.7
198.8
197.3
166.2
154.0
972.3
946.4
967.8
993.2
945.9
257.8
338.4
471.3
588.5
571.0
See footnotes at end of table.
234
1,252.1 1,230.1
1,313.0 1,284.8
1,462. 8 1,439.1
1,609.2 1,581. 7
1,543.9 1,516.9
74.6
998.0
83.3 1,064. 2
77.8 1,186.6
71.0 8«1,334. 7
59.2 1,273.8
242.4
243.8
221.1
190.2
182.1
142.9
177.8
171. 2
139.3
113.6
TABLE B-38.—New housing starts and applications for financing, 1929-64—Continued
[Thousands of units]
Housing starts
Private nonfarm
New
private
PriTotal
housvate
private
Governing
and
Two
(inment home units
public
or
cludprograms
aunon- Total* One- more
ing Total
thorfarm
iamiiy fami- farm)
ized
lies
F H A VA
Private nonfarm
Year or
month
Total
private Total
and private
public (in(in- cludcluding
ing farm)
farm) i
Proposed
home construction *
Applica- JtvtJtions Quests
for
for
V A
F H A XT
A
com- apmit- praisments als
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1963: Jan
Feb....
Mar....
Apr
May...
June...
81.8
90.8
128.5
166.4
176.3
158.1
79.0
89.6
124.8
164.2
172.7
154.2
80.7
89.2
126.8
163.6
173.2
156.3
77.9
88.0
123.1
161.4
169.6
152.4
43.9
51.9
78.1
107.2
109.3
99.9
34.0
36.1
45.0
54.2
60.3
52.5
1,314
1,445
1,577
1,678
1,679
1,575
1,287
1,418
1,551
1,656
1,651
1,558
172
164
173
176
180
179
74
78
73
83
79
72
1,267
1,226
1,279
1,287
1,360
1,352
203
197
197
251
160
195
161
150
152
119
152
123
July....
Aug....
Sept...
Oct
Nov
Dec
153.5
149.9
148.4
167.5
122.3
97.4
151.3
146.3
146.4
164.5
120.5
95.7
151.9
147.5
145.2
164.2
119.7
95.1
149.7
143.9
143.2
161.2
117.9
93.4
97.4
95.5
90.8
100.9
69.7
48.6
52.3
48.4
52.4
60.3
48.2
44.8
1,599
1,475
1,747
1,864
1,577
1,570
1,584
1,454
1,712
1,824
1,544
1,524
164
151
159
158
153
157
72
63
62
62
67
73
1,320
1,286
1,371
1,401
1,359
1,402
182
172
173
176
190
183
122
133
140
140
145
159
1964: Jan
Feb....
Mar....
MPay_~_"
June...
100.8
101.1
133.3
152.3
160.5
164.0
-99.6
100.3
130.1
148.5
157.5
158.5
99.5
98.5
131.5
149.5
158.2
161.3
98.3
97.7
128.3
145.7
155.2
155.8
53.8
61.1
80.4
87.8
98.9
99.2
44.5
36.6
47.9
57.9
56.3
56.6
1,718
1,657
1,663
1,531
1,529
1,611
1,688
1,613
1,638
1,501
1,507
1,585
158
192
165
146
174
152
75
83
68
60
61
60
1,333
1,404
1,377
1,280
]L, 271
L,306
178
193
190
190
173
177
138
135
124
111
99
103
July....
Aug....
Sept-__
Oct
Nov s_.
Dec«...
145.1
144.8
126.0
143.1
111.4
93.3
142.7
141.6
122.6
141.0
109.4
92.1
142.8
142.2
123.9
140.6
109.3
91.4
140.4
139.0
120.5
138.5
107.3
90.2
89.4
87.6
77.4
87.9
66.8
55.6
51.0
51.4
43.1
50.5
40.5
34.6
1,505
1,430
1,457
1.591
1,430
1,541
1,483
1,408
1,433
1,559
1,404
1,502
145
142
136
146
152
151
56
52
52
50
57
53
1,242
1,281
L,222
1,220
L7258
1,154
162
176
174
183
194
193
109
88
121
112
118
118
1
Military housing starts, including those financed with mortgages insured by FHA under Section 803
of the National Housing Act, are included in publicly financed starts b u t excluded from total private
starts and from FHA starts.
* Units in mortgage applications or appraisal requests for new home construction.
1
FHA program approved in June 1934; all 1934 activity included in 1935.
* Monthly
. estimates
. . for
. . September
. . . . . 1945-May
. 1950 were .prepare*
epared by Housing and Home Finance Agency.
• Preliminary; data for 1964 partly estimated by Council of Economic Advisers.
• Data for 1963 and 1964 cover approximately 12,000 permit-issuing places. Data for 1959-62 are based
on reports from approximately 10,000 places. In 1963, the additional 2,000 permit-issuing places accounted
for almost 50,000 new privately owned housing unit authorizations.
NOTE.—Census series beginning 1945 include Alaska and Hawaii. FHA and VA data include
Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.
Census data for 1945-58 have been revised for comparability with subsequent data. One-family and
two-family series have not been revised. See Housing Starts C20-60, Map 1964.
Detail may not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and Veterans Administration (VA), except as noted.
235
TABLE B-39.—Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1939 and 1945-65
[Billions of dollars]
Manufacturing
Year or quarter
Total i
Total
Dura- Nonble durable
goods goods
Transportation
Public
utili-
Mining
Railroad
Other
Commercial
and
other >
5.51
1.94
0.76
1.19
0.33
0.28
0.36
0.52
2.08
1945—
1946—
1947—
1948—
1949—
14,85
20.61
22.06
19.28
3.98
6.79
8.70
9.13
7.15
1.59
3.11
3.41
3.48
2.59
2.39
3.68
5.30
5.65
4.56
.38
.43
.79
.55
.58
.89
1.32
1.35
.57
.92
1.30
1.28
.50
.79
1.54
2.54
3.12
2.70
5.33
7.49
6.90
5.98
1960
1951—
1952—
1953—
1954—
20.60
25.64
26.49
28.32
26.83
7.49
10.85
11.63
11.91
11.04
3.14
5.17
5.61
5.65
5.09
4.36
5.68
6.02
6.26
5.95
.71
.93
.98
.99
.98
1.11
1.47
1.40
1.31
.85
1.21
1.49
1.50
1.56
1.51
3.31
3.66
3.89
4.55
4.22
6.78
7.24
7.09
8.00
8.23
1955—
1956—
1957—
1958—
1959—
28.70
35.08
36.96
30.53
32.54
11.44
14.95
15.96
11.43
12.07
5.44
7.62
8.02
5.47
5.77
6.00
7.33
7.94
5.96
6.29
.96
1.24
1.24
.94
.92
1.23
1.40
.75
.92
1.60
1.71
1.77
1.50
2.02
4.31
4.90
6.20
6.09
5.67
9.47
11.05
10.40
9.81
10.88
1960—
1961—
1962—
1963—
&5.68
34.37
37 31
39.22
44.66
14.48
13.68
14.68
15.69
18.51
7.18
6.27
7.03
7.85
9.35
7.30
7.40
7.6*
7.84
9.16
.99
.98
1.08
1.04
1.18
1.03
.67
.85
1.10
1.46
1.94
1.85
2.07
1.92
2.31
5.68
5.52
5.48
5.65
6.14
11.57
11.68
13.15
13.82
15.06
1964 ».
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I.._.
II...
III..
IV..
35.70
36.95
38.35
37.95
14.20
14.45
15.05
15.00
6.55
6.95
7.25
7.30
7.60
7.50
7.80
7.70
1.15
1.05
1.10
1.00
0 70
.95
1.00
.80
2.05
2.25
2.00
1.90
6.15
5.40
5.75
5.45
12.45
12.90
13.45
13.80
1963: I — .
II...
III..
IV..
36.95
38.05
40.00
41.20
14.85
15.30
15.95
16.45
7.35
7.65
8.00
8.30
7.50
7.65
8.00
8.15
1.05
1.00
1.05
1.05
.90
1.00
1.20
1.35
1.70
2.05
1.65
2.10
5.20
5.45
5.90
5.80
13.20
13.30
14.05
14.50
1964: I — .
II—
III..
IV»
42.55
43.50
45.65
46.70
17.40
17.80
18.85
19.75
8.85
9.00
9.60
9.80
8.55
8.80
9.20
9.95
1.15
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.40
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.30
2.25
2.40
2.30
5.95
6.30
6.30
6.00
14.30
14.75
15.40
15.55
1965: I s__.
II».
47.90
48.70
20.40
20.70
10.15
10.25
1.25
1.70
2.35
6.40
15.80
27.95
i Excludes agriculture.
* Commercial and other includes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction.
»Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures reported by business in November 1964. The
quarterly anticipations include adjustments, when necessary, for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data.
NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with the
average of seasonally adjusted figures.
These figures do not agree precisely with the plant and equipment expenditures included in the gross
national product estimates of the Department of Commerce. The main difference lies in the inclusion
in the gross national product of investment by farmers, professionals, institutions, real estate firms,
and of certain outlays charged to current account.
These series are not available for years prior to 1939 and for 1940 to 1944.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (Office of Business
Economics).
236
TABLE B-40.—Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1947-64
[Amounts in millions of dollars]
Total manufacturing and trade
Merchant
wholesalers
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Year or month
InvenInvenInvenSales i tories* Ratio* Sales i tories' Ratio' Sales i Inventories' Ratio > Sales» tories' Ratio'
1947..
1948..
1949..
52,507
33,788 49,497
1.39
1.53
15,513 25,897
18.045 28,543
16,126 26,321
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
38,596
43,356
44,840
47,987
46,443
59,822
70,242
72,377
76,122
73,175
1.36
1.55
1.58
1.58
1.60
18,634
21,714
22,529
24,843
23,355
31,078
39,306
41,136
43,948
41,612
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958*..
1959...
51,694
54,063
55,878
54,232
59,583
79,516
87,304
89,052
86,922
91,964
1.47
1.55
1.59
1.60
1.51
26,480
27,740
28,736
27,280
30,219
45,069
.62
50,642
.73
51,871
.80
50,070 1.84
52, 707 1.70
9,893
10,513
10,475
10,257
11,413
I960"—
1961 «...
1962....
1963-...
1964 7 8.
60,530 94.610
60.747 95,576
65,078 100, 271
68,002 .10 \ 127
72,634,107,995
1.56
1.55
1.51
1.50
1.47
30.796
30,884
33,308
34,774
37,100
53,814
55,087
57,753
60,147
62,287
11,440
11,629
12,158
12,692
13,734
.50
..74
48
66
79
76
81
1.76
1.74
1.70
1.69
1.64
10,200 14,241
11,135 16,007
11,149 15,470
1.26
1.39
1.41
07
16
12
17
18
12,268
13,046
13,529
14,091
14,095
19,460
21,050
21,031
21,488
20,926
1.38
1.64
1.52
1.53
1.51
11.678
13,260
12.730
12; 739
13,952
13
19
23
24
17
15,321 22,769
15,811 23,402
16,667 24,451
24,113
17,951 25; 305
1.43
1.47
1.44
1.43
1.40
13,983
14,251
14,580
15, 597
16,360
23
21
19
18
17
18,294
18,234
19,613
20. 53S
21,800
26,813
26,238
27,938
29,333
29,348
1.45
1.43
1.38
1 39
1.36
7,957
7,706
1.13
1.19
7,695 9,284
8,597
8,782 10,210
9,052 10,686
10,637
6,808
6,514
Seasonally adjusted
1963:
Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
MayJune..
66,076 100,529
67,002 100,740
67,066100,986
67,452 101,369
67,545 101,598
67,983,102,026
1.62
1.50
1.51
1.50
1.50
1.50
33,542
34,1H
34,244
34,578
34,836
34,942
57,883
58,021
58,126
58,309
58,507
58,706
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct ..
Nov..
Dec.
69,244102,523
68,250 102,672
68,029 103,140
68,884 103,731
68,338 104,529
70,026 105,127
1.48
1.50
1.52
1.51
1.53
1.50
35,641
34,736
34,672
35,214
35,004
36,021
58,884
58,917
59,087
59,322
59,780
60,147
70,992 105,432
71,013 105,428
70,649 105,721
71,787 106,371
72,660 106, 507
72,187 106,621
1.49
1.48
1.50
1.48
1.47
1.48
36,677 60,006
60,123
36,222 60,326
37,1671 60,531
37,186 60,528
36,791
1964:
Jan._.
Feb..
Mar..
MPay"."
June..
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct._.
Nov..
Dec 8 .
73,693 106,634 1.45
73,204 106,716 1.46
73; 358 107,323 1.46
72,131 107,320 1.49
73,451 107,995 1.47
37,963
37,168
37,312
36,811
37,575
60,488
60,763
61,019
61,777
62,287
1.65
.70
.70
.68
1.71
.67
.64
1.68
1.66
12,147
12,514
12,472
12,598
12, £09
12,555
14,586
14,581
14,629
14,781
14,755
14,863
1.20
1.16
1.17
1.17
1.18
1.18
20,387
20,374
20,350
20,276
20,200
20,486
28,060
28,138
28,231
28,279
28,457
1.38
1.38
1.39
1.39
1.40
1.39
12,884
12,848
12,931
12,954
12,776
12,986
14,991
15,140
15,301
15,488
15,495
15,597
1.16
1.18
1.18
1.20
1.21
1.20
20,719
20,666
20,426
20,716
20,558
21,019
28,648
28,615
28,752
28,921
29,254
29,383
1.38
1.38
1.41
1.40
1.42
1.40
13,315
13,245
13,204
13,228
13,697
13,623
15,818
15,719
15,734
15,879
16,053
16,043
1.19
1.19
1.19
1.20
1.17
1.18
21,000
21,533
21,223
21,392
21,777
21,773
29,608
29,586
29,661
29,961
29,926
30,180
1.41
1.37
1.40
1.40
1.37
1.39
13,795
13,770
13,792
13,937
14,245
16,017
15,986
16,222
16,276
16,360
1.16
1.16
1.18
1.17
1.15
21,935
22,266
22,254
21,383
21,631
22,808
30,129
29,967
30,082
29,267
29,348
1.37
1.35
1.35
1.37
1.36
1
Monthly average shown for year and total for month.
*8 Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
Inventory/sales ratio. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly
sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
* Beginning 1958, manufacturing sales and inventories include data for Alaska and Hawaii.
* Beginning 1960, retail sales and inventories include data for Alaska and Hawaii.
8 Beginning 1961, merchant wholesalers' sales and inventories include data for Alaska and Hawaii.
*8 Where December data not available, data for year calculated on basis of no change from November.
Preliminary.
NOTE.-—The inventory figures in this table do not agree with the estimates of change in business inventories included in the gross national product since these figures cover only manufacturing and trade rather
than all business, and show inventories in terms of current book value without adjustment for revaluation.
Source: Department of Commerce (Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census).
•757-981 O—«5
16
237
T A B L E B-41.—Manufacturers1 shipments and inventories, 7947-64
[Millions of dollars]
Inventories a
Shipments *
Year or month
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Dur- Nondurable
able
MateMateTotal goods goods Total
rials Work Finrials Work Finindus- indusand
in
ished
and
Total
Total
in
ished
tries
tries
sup- process goods
supgoods
plies
1947.
1948.
1949.
5,513
8,045
6,126
8,308
7,191
8,817 25,897 13,061
9,738 28,543 14,662
8,935 26,321 13,060
12,836
13,881
13,261
1950..
19511952..
1953..
1954..
18,634
21,714
22,529
24,843
23,355
8,845
10,493
11,313
13,349
11,828
9,789 31,078 15, 539
11,22139,306 20,1,991
11,216 41,136 23,731
11,494 43,948 25,878
11,527 41,61 23,710
8,966 10,720
7,894 9,721
15,539
18,315
17,405
6,206 18,070
6,040 17,902
8,317
8,16:
2,472
2,440
7,409
7,415
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959.
26,480
27,740
28, 736
27,280
30, 219
14,071
14,715
15,237
13,572
15,544
12,409 45,069r 26,i, 405 9,194 10,756
10,417 12,317
13,025 50,64 30,447
"
. .31,728 10,608 12,837
13,499 51,871
13,708 50,070 30,095 9,847 12,294
14,675 52,707 31,839 10,585 12,952
6,348 18,664
7,565 20,195
8,125 20,143
7,749 19,975
8,143 20,868
8,556
8,971
8,775
8,671
9,089
2,571
2,721
2,864
2,800
2,928
7,666
8,622
8,624
8,498
8,857
I960—
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964 3.
30,796
30,884
33,308
34,774
37,100
15,817
15, 532
17,184
18,071
19,200
14,979 53,814 32,360
15; 352 55,
15,352
55,087
"~ 32,646
16,124 57, 34,326
36,028
17^900 62; 28' 37,938
9,113
9,511
9,770
9,769
9,653
2,935 9,353
3,120 9,707
3,304 10,246
3,479 10,871
3,494 11,202
10,286
10,234
10, 571
10,879
11,399
12,780 9,190 21,454
13,225 9,088 22,441
"!,441
14,129 9, 593 23,427
1,427
14,857 10, 292 24,119
15,812 10,727 24,349
Seasonally adjusted
10,552
10,561
10,571
10,652
10,655
10,755
14,194
14,226
14,267
14,380
14,530
14,569
9,644 23,493
9,709 23,525
9,755 23,533
9,755 23,522
9,777 23,545
9,832 23,550
9,842
9,864
9,835
9,827
9,796
9,752
3,411
3,411
3,409
3,404
3,416
3,352
10,240
10,250
10,289
10,291
10,333
10,446
18,746
18,160
17,937
18,590
18,272
18,476
16,24157,883 34,390
16,478 58,021 34,496
16,622 58,126 34,593
16,686 58,309 34,787
16,724 58,507 34 Q62
16,700 58,706 35,
,156
16,895 58,884 35,346
16,576 58,917 35,507
16,735 59,087 35,536
16,624159,322 35,581
16,732'59,780 35,704
17,545 60,147 36,028
10,801
10,988
10,917
10,878
10,880
10,879
14,716
14,577
14,579
14, 639
14,648
14,857
9,829 23,538
9,942 23,410
10,040 23,551
10,064 23,741
10,176:24,076
10,292 24,119
9,664
9,621
9,660
9,844
9,826
9,769
3,362
3,334
3,347
3,344
3,428
3,470
10,512
10,455
10,544
10,553
10,822
10,871
36,677
36,235
36,222
37.167
37,186
36,791
19,144
19,027
18,887
19,359
19,138
19,023
17, 533 60,006
17, 208 60,123
17,335 60,326
17,808 60,531
18,048 60,528
17,768 60,398
35,970
35,960
36,079
36, 277
36,300
36,492
10.827
10, 792
10,817
10,830
10.828
10,866
14,833
14,880
15,001
15,112
15,127
15,211
10, 310 24,036
10, 288 24,163
10,261 24,247
10; 335 24,254
10,335
10,345 24,228
10,415 23,906
9,666
9,661
9,632
9,534
9,528
9,432
3,452
3,403
3,446
3,459
3,452
3,422
10,918
11,099
11,169
11,261
11,248
11,052
37,963
37.168
37,312
36,811
37,575
19,861
19,164
19,284
18,633
19,345
20,407
18,102 60,488 36,597
18,00460,763 36,790
18,028 61,019 37, '
18,178 61, 777 37,
18,230 62,287 37
10,870
10,917
11,072
11, 277
11,399
15,325
15,442
15,497
15,622
15,812
10,402 23,891
10,43123,973
10,468 23,982
10, 618 24, 260
10,727 24,349
9,293
9,351
9,412
9,565
9,653
3,406
3,426
3,457
3,508
3,494
11,192
11,196
11,113
11,187
11,202
1963: J a n . .
Feb..
Mar_.
Apr..
May.
June.
33,542
34,114
34,244
34,578
34,836
34,942
17,301
17,636
17,622
17,892
18,112
18,242
July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec._
35,641
34,736
34,672
35,214
35,004
36,021
1964: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov*
Dec*
1 Monthly average for year and total for month.
2 Book value, seasonally adjusted, end of period.
* Preliminary estimates.
* Preliminary.
NOTE.-—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1958.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
238
TABLE B-42.—Manufacturers*
new and unfilled orders, 1947-64
[Millions of dollars]
New orders l
Unfilled orders *
Durable goods
Year or month
Machinery and
equipment
Total
Total
Nondurable
goods
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
19471948-.
1949..
15,256
17,692
15,614
8,126
9,566
8,981
34,266
30,552
23,877
28,379
26,459
19,504
5,887
4,093
4,373
195019511952..
1953..
1954..
20,110
23,907
23,203
23,533
22,313
10,165
12,841
12,061
12,105
10,743
2,084
1,770
9,945
11,066
11,142
11,428
11,570
41,166
66,862
75,478
60,346
48,195
35,222
63,077
72,317
57,854
45,233
5,944
3,785
3,161
2,492
2,962
1955..
1956195719581959-
27,423
27,514
26,901
30,679
14,954
15,381
14,073
13,170
15,951
2,499
2,870
2,566
2,354
2,878
12,469
13,002
13,441
13,731
14,728
60,044
67,473
53,251
48,785
54,101
64,067
50,464
45,709
50,428
3,675
3,406
2,787
3,076
3,673
1960..
1961..
196219631964 3
30,115
31,061
33,167
35,036
37,700
15,223
15,664
17,085
18,300
19,800
2,791
2,854
3,090
3,326
3,700
14,892
15,397
16,082
16,736
17,900
45,820
47,868
46,242
49,149
55,500
43,187
44,818
43,666
46,193
52,600
2,633
3,050
2,576
2,956
2,900
Seasonally adjusted
1963: J a n . . .
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May_
June..
34,742
34,636
35,364
35,752
35,438
34,425
18,466
18,228
18,776
19,037
18,736
17,682
3,254
3,206
3,217
3,351
3,416
3,292
16,276
16,408
16,588
16,715
16,702
16,743
47,809
48,424
49,353
50,246
50,565
50,052
45,057
45,736
46,681
47,530
47,864
47,285
2,752'
2,688
2,672
2,716
2,701
2,767
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
NovDec_.
35,207
34,930
34,991
35,354
34,953
35,619
18,275
18,060
18,244
18,622
18,113
17,974
3,334
3,307
3,415
3,441
3,273
3,612
16,932
16,870
16,747
16,732
16,840
17,645
49,542
49,552
49,982
50,140
50,132
49,796
46,745
46,695
47,070
47,169
47,076
46,676
2,797
2,857
2,912
2,971
3,056
3,120
1964: J a n . . .
Feb-.
Mar..
37,148
36,657
36,547
38,184
37,893
37,782
19,740
19,499
19,262
20,461
19,945
20,016
3,617
3,413
3,455
3,610
3,929
3,916
17,408
17,158
17,285
17,723
17,948
17,766
50,083
50,586
50,697
51,679
52,004
52,833
47,072
47,644
47,805
48,840
49,225
50,037
3,011
2,942
2,892
2,839
2,779
2,796
39,315
37,509
38,018
37,846
37,682
21,254
19,342
19,907
19,623
19,420
20,309
3,774
3,772
3,686
3,786
3,895
3,867
18,061
18,167
18, 111
18,223
18,262
54,075
54,216
55,042
56,067
56,270
51,302
51,366
52,135
53,137
53,323
53,522
2,773
2,850
2,907
2,930
2,947
May."
June..
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Nov«.
Dec «_.
1
Monthly average for year and total for month.
End of period.
' Preliminary estimates.
3
* Preliminary.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1958.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
239
PRICES
T A B L E B—43.—Wholesale price indexes by major commodity groups, 1929—64
[1957-59=100]
All commodities other than farm products
and foods (industrials)
Year or month
All
commodities
Farm
products
Processed
foods
Total
Textile
products
and
apparel
1929
52.1
63.9
54.3
51.7
67.8
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
47.3
39.9
35.6
36.1
41.0
54.0
39.6
29.4
31.3
39.9
49.5
41.6
33.9
33. 7
39.6
48.1
42.4
39.7
40.2
44.2
60.3
49.8
41.2
48.6
54.7
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
43.8
44.2
47.2
43.0
42.2
48.0
49.4
52.7
41.9
39.9
48.3
46.4
48.6
42.3
40.2
44.0
44.9
48.1
46.1
46.0
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
43.0
47.8
54.0
56.5
56.9
41.3
50.1
64.6
74.8
75.3
40.4
46.7
54.8
57.2
56.0
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
57.9
66.1
81.2
87.9
83.5
78.3
90.6
109.1
117.1
101.3
1950 . .
1951
1952 .
1953
1954
86.8
96.7
94.0
92.7
92.9
Chemicals
and
allied
products
Rubber Lumber
and
and
rubber
wood
prodproducts
ucts
57.6
26.4
0)
46.6
48.8
50.4
42 8
37.1
39.0
45.5
24.1
19.6
16.9
20.0
23.5
53.3
53.7
57.3
50.1
52.3
50.9
51.2
53.6
51.0
50.7
45.8
49.4
58.1
57.1
59.3
22.6
23.6
27.9
25.4
26.1
46.8
50.3
53.9
54.7
55.6
55.4
63.7
72.8
73.1
73.9
51.6
56.1
62.3
63.1
63.8
55.3
59.6
69.4
71.3
70.4
28.9
34.5
37.5
39.7
42.8
56.4
71.7
91.1
98.4
88.8
56.3
61.7
75.3
81.7
80.0
75.1
87.3
105.7
110.3
100.9
64.2
69.4
92.2
94.4
86.2
68.3
68 6
68.3
70.5
68.3
43.4
49.7
77.4
88.5
81.9
106.4
123.8
116.8
105.9
104.4
92.6
103.3
100.9
97.0
97.6
82.9
91.5
89.4
90.1
90.4
104.8
116.9
105.5
102.8
100.6
87.5
100.1
95 0
96 1
97.3
83.2
102.1
92.5
86 3
87.6
94.1
102.5
99.5
99.4
97.6
93.2
96.2
99.0
100.4
100.6
97.9
96.6
99.2
103.6
97.2
94.3
94.3
97.9
102.9
99.2
92.4
96.5
99.2
99.5
101.3
100.7
100.7
100.8
98.9
100.4
96.9
97.5
99.6
100.4
100.0
99.2
100.6
100.2
100.1
99.7
102.3
103.8
98.5
97.4
104.1
1960 . .
1961
1962
1963
1964 2
100.7
100.3
100.6
100.3
100.5
96.9
96.0
97.7
95.7
94.3
100.0
100.7
101.2
101.1
101.0
101.3
100.8
1008
100.7
101.2
101.5
99.7
100.6
100.5
101.2
100.2
99.1
97.5
96.3
96.7
99.9
96.1
93.3
93.8
92.5
100.4
95.9
96.5
98.6
100.6
1963: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr. . .
May
June-
100.5
100.2
99.9
99.7
100.0
100.3
98.5
96.5
95.4
95.4
94.4
94.9
100.8
100.5
99.0
99.3
101.7
102.4
100.7
1006
100.6
100.4
100.5
100.7
100 4
100.3
100.2
100.1
100.2
100.3
96.9
96.7
96 8
96.3
96.4
96.3
94.3
94.2
94.1
94.1
93.2
93.1
95.9
96.1
96.5
97.0
97.5
98.3
_
100.6
100 4
100.3
100.5
100.7
100.3
96.8
96.3
95.5
95.1
96.2
93.3
102.2
100.9
100.9
102.2
102.5
100.4
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.9
100.9
101.2
100.4
100.4
100. 5
100.7
101.1
101.2
96.0
96.0
96 0
96.2
96.3
96.2
93.0
93 7
93.4
94.2
94.2
93.8
101.6
102.6
99.9
99.2
99.2
99.1
1964: Jan
Feb
Mar .
Apr
May
June.- --. ._-
101.0
100.5
100.4
100.3
100.1
100.0
96.3
94.5
95.2
94.4
93.7
93.2
102.5
100.9
100.5
100.4
99.4
100.2
101.3
101.2
101.1
101.1
101.1
100.9
101.2
101.2
101.2
101.1
101.2
101.0
96.3
96.4
96.5
96.6
96.7
96.5
93.7
93.6
93.9
93.1
92.6
91.6
99.0
99.9
101.0
101.8
101.8
101.4
100.4
100.3
100.7
100.8
100.7
100.8
94.1
93.6
95.7
93.8
94.0
92.8
101.2
101.0
102.2
101.7
100.9
100.8
101.1
101.1
101.1
101.5
101.6
101.8
101.1
101.2
101.2
101.4
101.4
101.5
96.6
96.5
96.6
96.9
97.1
97.2
91.8
91.8
91.9
92.1
92.2
92.1
101.2
100.9
100.6
100.3
99.6
99.4
_
.
1955
1956 ._
1957
1958
1959
.
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
July
Aug
Sept
Oct..
Nov
Dec 2
See footnotes at end of table.
24O
0)
0)
(i)
TABLE B-43.— Wholesale price indexes by major commodity groups, 1929-64—Continued
[1957-59-100]
All commodities other than farm products and foods (industrials)—continued
Metals
and
metal
products
FurniMachin- ture
and
ery and other
motive houseprodhold
ucts
durables
44.1
39.7
35.7
32.8
33.6
37.1
37.0
37.8
43.2
41.6
41.2
43.7
56.4
55.5
51.1
45.0
45.1
49.0
48.6
49.3
54.7
53.4
53.2
53.2
56.6
58.2
59.9
61.6
62.3
66.7
79.7
93.8
41.4
42.2
42.8
42.7
42.7
44.2
45.8
47.7
47.4
47.4
43.4
48.5
60.2
68.5
69.0
47.8
53.6
61.8
67.5
71.2
54.4
57.8
62.5
62.1
63.8
63.9
67.8
77.8
82.5
83.8
90.2
93.5
93.3
95.9
94.6
72.7
80.9
81.0
83.6
84.3
72.6
79.5
81.2
82.2
83.2
85.6
92.8
91.1
92.9
93.9
94.5
97.4
102.7
98.7
98.7
99.6
100.7
100.2
99.8
97.1
100.4
100.3
100.8
100.3
100.4
100.9
100.4
98.9
99.0
98.8
97.9
99.3
99.5
99.0
97.0
96.1
96.4
90.0
97.8
99 7
99.1
101.2
85.8
92.1
97.7
100.1
102.2
102.4
102.3
102.3
102.2
102.9
102.3
102.2
102.0
101.9
102.0
102.0
94.3
96 9
99.4
100.2
100 4
1962-.-—.
1963
1964 2 - - — 1963: Jan'..!
Feb...
Mar...
AprMay..
June..
July..
Aug...
SeptOct—
Nov..
Dec.
1964: Jan...
FebMar._
AprMay.
June.
89.5
94.8
94.9
96.0
109.1
105.2
106.2
107.4
104.2
104.6
106.0
105.1
105.1
104.5
104.8
104.5
104.3
103.6
103.1
103.4
103.5
103.0
102.7
102.5
102.5
104.5
104.7
104.8
July..
Aug_.
Sept..
Oct..
Nov..
Dec 2.
105.4
105.6
105.4
106.0
105.5
105.4
96.7
96.4
95.2
96.7
97.6
98.2
Hides,
skins,
leather,
and
leather
products
Fuels
and
related
products,
and
power
61.5
58.2
50.0
52.1
49.3
54.3
1935.
1936
1937
1938
1939
56.6
52.0
44.7
38.0
42.0
44.9
46.5
49.5
54.3
48.2
49.6
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944...
52.3
56.1
61.1
61.0
60.5
Year or month
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
61.3
70.7
96.5
97.5
92.5
99.9
114.8
92.8
94.1
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
_.
54.5
56.5
57.5
56.6
54.2
Pulp,
paper,
and
allied
products
101.3
100.7
100.0
100.1
102.8
99.5
99.4
99.4
99.4
99.9
100.0
100.0
100.1
100.3
100.9
101.0
101.3
101.7
101.8
102.0
102.2
102.1
102.3
102.5
103.0
103.0
103.8
104.3
104.7
1 Not available.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
241
Tobacco
Nonme- products
Misceltallic
and
laneous
mineral bottled
prodprodbeveructs
ucts
ages
53.4
67.4
53.2
49.7
46.5
49.2
52.6
52.6
52.7
53.9
52.2
51.2
51.2
62.4
54.5
54.7
55.8
58.1
61.8
69.1
74.7
76.7
67.8
67.2
63.3
56.6
59.2
80.5
85.1
87.0
89.8
93.8
102.1
102.1
102.2
102.3
102.5
102.6
102.5
102.5
102.7
102.9
103.3
103.0
94-6
95.1
98.0
99.7
102 2
102.5
103. 2
104.1
106.1
107.4
104.3
104.3
104.3
104.4
105.2
105.8
107.5
107.5
107.5
107.5
107.5
107.5
107.6
107.1
107.1
107.1
107.3
107.4
99.1
98.1
96.6
101.5
101.9
98.2
98.2
98.1
98.0
98.1
98.0
98.1
98.1
98.1
9H.1
98.0
98.4
98.5
98.5
98.6
98.6
98.5
78.6
83.5
83.5
86.9
88.8
91.3
95.2
98.9
99.9
101.2
101.4
101.8
101.8
101.3
101.5
101.4
101.5
101.5
101.5
101.3
101.2
100.9
101.0
101.1
101.3
101.2
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.3
101.3
101.4
103.1
102.9
102.9
103.0
103.2
103.1
98.6
98.5
98.5
98.5
101.5
101.7
101.8
101.8
101.8
101.8
107.3
107.5
107.5
107.6
107.5
107.5
107.5
107.3
109.2
110.1
108.5
110.7
100.1
99.5
98.8
98.1
98.5
59.1
59.0
59.5
59.4
59.4
60.1
60.8
61.5
64.6
64.9
66.7
69.8
75.6
78.2
79.6
0)
(0
8
8
8
0)
0)
0)
0)
0)
0)
111.2
103.5
104.1
113.1
116.7
105. 4
110.5
99.3
103.9
107.3
110.4
109.2
111.6
111.5
110.8
108.0
107.6
108.1
110.4
111.1
111.8
111.2
110.9
112.2
112.6
110.9
109.8
109.5
107.2
106.7
TABLE B-44.— Wholesale price indexes, by stage of processing, 1947-64
[1957-59=100]
Intermediate materials, supplies, and components *
Crude materials
Year or
month
All
commodities
Materials and components for
manufacturing
Food- Nonstuffs food
ma- Fuel
Total and terials,
feed- except
stuffs
Total
fuel
Materials
for
Total food
manufacturing
Ma-
terials
and
Ma- Materials terials Com compofor
pofor nents nents
non- dufor
du- rable for
rable manu- manu- conmanu- facturfactur- struction
factur- ing
ing
ing
1947
1948
1949
81.2
87.9
83.5
100.8
110.5
95.6
113.0
122.2
101.5
86.5
96.2
87.5
73.6
87.0
86.5
82.7
79.4
76.5
75.5
81.5
78.0
102.6
105.8
91.0
94.0
99.5
90.7
58.8
66.4
68.2
63.0
68.0
69.3
69.6
77.0
77.2
1950
1951
1952 . .
1953
1954
86.8
96.7
94.0
92.7
92.9
104.2
119.6
109.9
101.5
100.6
108.9
126.0
118.6
106.2
106.2
100.0
115.3
99.9
95.6
93.8
86.1
87.7
88.3
91.4
87.3
83.0
93.0
90.3
90.8
91.3
81.8
92.7
88.8
90.2
90.4
94.7
105.5
101.4
101.6
100.7
95.2
110.3
99.3
98.5
96.9
72.1
80.1
80.3
83.9
85.7
71.9
81.6
81 8
83.3
83.7
81.2
88.8
88.2
89.7
90.1
93.2
96.2
99.0
100.4
100.6
96.7
97.2
99.4
101.6
99.0
96.2
94.2
98.4
104 2
97.4
99.1
102.8
101.4
97.6
101.0
87.1
93.3
98.6
99.8
101.6
93.0
97.1
99.4
99.6
101.0
92.6
96.9
99.3
99.7
101.0
97.5
97.9
99.7
102.0
98.3
97.3
98.8
100.1
99.1
100.8
90.0
95.7
98.8
99.5
101.8
87.4
95.4
99.1
99.9
101.1
93.7
98.5
99.1
99.1
101.8
1960
1961 .
1962
1963
1964 <
100.7
100.3
100.6
100.3
100.5
96.6
96.1
97.1
95.0
94.1
96.2
94.9
96.8
94.0
91.9
96.8
97.9
97.4
96.2
97.8
102.5
102.3
101.8
103.0
102.5
101.0
100.3
100.2
100.5
100.9
101.0
99.8
99.2
99.4
100.4
99.5
102.6
100.5
105. 5
105.1
100.8
98.6
98.0
97.1
97.8
101.9
100.5
100.4
100.5
102.5
100.6
99.6
98.8
98.8
99.7
101.1
99.7
99.3
99.6
100.6
1963: J a n
Feb
100.5
100.2
99.9
99.7
100.0
96.8
95.6
94.5
95.0
94.2
94.8
97.1
94.7
92.8
93.9
92.8
93.7
95.8
96.4
96.7
96.5
96.6
96.4
103.3
105.6
105.4
102.3
100.5
101.0
100.2
100.1
100.0
99.9
100.5
100.6
98.8
98.7
98.6
98.8
99.7
99.7
101.0
101.2
101.2
103.5
110.2
109.8
97.3
97.2
97.1
97.1
97.1
97.0
100.0
99.8
99.7
99.6
100.1
100.4
98.6
98.5
98.2
98.2
98.6
98.7
98.8
98.9
98.9
99.0
99.2
99.4
100.6
100.4
100.3
100.5
100.7
100.3
96.1
95.7
94.8
94.8
95.1
92.6
96.1
95.4
94.0
93.8
94.2
90.1
95.9
95.6
95.6
96.1
96.1
96.3
101.9
102.0
102.9
103.3
103.7
104.6
100.6
100.5
100.5
100.9
101.0
101.1
99.4
99.1
99.1
100.1
100.4
100.2
106.4
102.9
103.7
108.8
110.6
107.1
96.8
96.6
96.6
97.2
97.4
97.5
100.8
101.0
100.8
101.3
101.4
101.6
98.6
98.7
99.0
99.2
39.4
99.6
100.1
100.4
99.8
100.0
100.0
100.1
101.0
100.5
100.4
100.3
100.1
100.0
95.1
94.0
94.3
94.2
93.5
92.4
94.0
92.2
92.5
92.1
91.3
89.6
96.6
96.6
97.1
97.9
97.3
97.5
104.5
105.1
103.2
101.0
99.9
99.8
101.3
101.2
100.9
100.9
100.6
100.3
100.6
100.4
100.4
100.4
100.2
100.0
110 2
107.2
105. 5
105.3
103.6
102. 7
97.6
97.6
97.8
97.8
97.8
97.6
101.8
101.9
102.3
102.4
102.3
102.3
99 5
99.6
99.7
99.9
99.9
99.4
100.1
100.3
100.4
100.7
100.7
100.6
100.4
100.3
100.7
100.8
100.7
100.8
93.8
94.1
95.7
94.3
94.0
94.0
91.5
91.7
94.4
91.8
91.0
90.7
97.5
97.9
97.7
98.5
99.1
99.6
101.7
102.3
101.9
102.7
103.8
104.7
100.5
100.4
100.6
101.1
101.1
101.4
100.0
100.1
100.2
100.8
101.0
101.2
103.1
103.1
103.8
104.8
106.4
106.1
97.6
97.5
97.6
98.0
98.2
98.3
102.4
102.5
102.5
103.2
103.3
103.4
99.3
99.3
99.4
100.0
100.3
100.5
100.6
100.6
100.6
100.7
100.7
100.7
1955
1956
1957 „
1958
1959
.
Mar
Apr
May
June____ 100.3
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1964: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May.__-
June
July
Aug
Sept.—
Oct
Nov
Dec*—_
See footnotes at end of table.
242
T A B L E B - 4 4 . — Wholesale price indexes, by stage of processing,
7947-64—Continued
[1957-59= 100]
Special groups of Industrial
products
Finished goods
Consumer finished goods
Year or month
Total
Total
InterConPromediate
sumer
materials,
finished
ducer Crude
mate* supplies, goods exOther
Tu- finished rials' and
com- cluding
nonFoods durable
rable goods
ponents'
foods
goods goods
1947...
1948...
1949-
80.1
86.4
84.0
86.1
92.6
88.3
90.7
99.0
91.0
86.5
92.0
88.2
76.9
81.1
83.2
61.8
67.4
70.7
79.2
92.5
84.0
73.4
79.8
77.8
83.1
88.4
86.5
19501951195219531954-
85.5
93.6
93.0
92.1
92.3
89.8
98.2
97.0
95.4
95.3
92.8
104.2
103.3
97.9
97.1
89.6
96.5
94.1
95.0
95.3
84.1
89 7
90.4
91.1
91.8
72.4
79.5
80.8
82.1
83.1
93.6
102.9
93.1
92.4
88.0
81.4
91.2
88.3
89.4
89.8
87.8
94.2
92.9
93.7
94.1
19551956195719581959-
92.5
95.1
98.6
100.8
100.6
94.7
96.1
98.9
101.0
100.1
94.7
94.5
97.8
103.5
98.7
95.8
97.7
99.9
99.3
100.8
92.8
95.9
98.7
100.1
101.3
85.6
92.0
97.7
100.2
102.1
96.6
102.3
100.9
96.9
102.3
92.5
97.0
99.6
99.4
101.0
94.8
97.1
99.5
99.6
100.9
1960—
1961—
1962—
1963...
1964 <__
101.4
101.4
101.7
101.4
101.8
101.1
100.9
101.2
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.4
101.3
100.1
100.6
101.5
101.5
101.6
101.9
101.6
100.9
100.5
100.0
99.5
99.9
102.3
102.5
102.9
103.1
104.1
98.3
97.2
95.6
94.3
97.1
101.4
100.1
99.9
99.6
100.2
101.3
101.2
101.0
101.0
100.9
1963: J a n . . .
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May.
June.
101.8
101.5
101.1
100.8
101.1
101.5
101.2
100.9
100.3
99.9
100.4
100.8
101.4
100.4
99.0
98.2
99.4
100.1
101.7
101.7
101.8
101.6
101.8
102.1
99.8
99.7
99.5
99.4
99.3
103.0
103.0
102.9
102.9
102.9
103.0
94.7
94.9
94.9
94.3
94.1
93.9
99.5
99.4
99.3
99.3
99.5
99.7
101.0
101.0
1C1.1
100.8
100.9
101.1
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
NTov..
101.8
101.4
101.5
101.6
101.8
101.4
101.2
100.8
100.8
100.9
101.1
100.6
101.0
100.3
100.3
100.4
101.0
99.4
102.3
101.9
101.9
102.0
101.7
102.2
99.4
99.3
99.4
99.6
99.6
99.5
103.0
103.0
103.0
103.2
103.4
103.6
93.9
93.9
93.9
94.4
94.5
94.5
99.7
99.7
99.6
99.8
99.9
100.1
101.3
100.9
101.0
101.1
100.9
101.2
1964 Jan...
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May.
June..
102.1
101.6
101.5
101.3
101.3
101.7
101. 5
100.8
100.7
100.3
100.2
100.8
101.4
99.9
100.2
.99.7
98.9
100.7
102.4
102.1
101.5
101.1
101.3
101.2
99.6
99.7
100.1
100.0
103.5
103.7
103.8
103.9
104.3
104.1
94.9
S4.9
95.2
96.2
95.6
95.9
100.1
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.1
101.4
101.2
100.8
100.6
100.8
100.7
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec «_.
102.1
101.9
102.1
102.1
102.1
101.9
101.2
100.9
101.3
101.2
101.1
100.9
101.4
100.9
102.2
101.4
100.9
101.5
101.4
101.0
101.6
101.9
102.1
104.3
104.3
104.2
104.3
104.6
104.5
96.6
98.3
98.1
99.1
99.8
100.7
100.0
100.0
99.9
100.4
100.5
100.6
100.9
100.8
100.6
101.0
101.1
101. 3
Dec-
100.1
99.9
99.9
100.0
99.9
1
Includes, in addition to subgroups shown, processed fuels and lubricants, containers, and supplies.
* Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaf tobacco,
a Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds.
* Preliminary.
NOTE.—For a listing of the commodities included in each sector, see Table 7B, Wholesale Prices and Price
Indexes, 1968 (BLS Bulletin 1257).
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
243
TABLE B-45.—Consumer price indexes, by major groups, 7929-64
For city wage earners and clerical workers
[1957-59=1001
All
items Food
Year or month
59.7
1920
Apparel Trans- Medi- Per- Read- Other
and porta- cal sonal ing and goods
up- 1
recrea- and
Total Rent keep tion care care
tion services
Housing
85.4
55.6
1930
1931 _
1932
1933
1934..
58.2
53.0
47.6
45.1
46.6
52.9
43.6
36.3
35.3
39.3
m
1935 . . . .
1936___
1937
1938
1939
47.8
48.3
50.0
49.1
48.4
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
(2)
55.3
;;;
m
(2)
(2)
(2)
83.1
78.7
70.6
60.8
57.0
54.1
49.2
43.6
42.1
46.1
42.1
42.5
44.2
41.0
39.9
56.3
57.1
59.1
60.1
59.7
56.9
58.3
60.9
62.9
63.0
46.5
46.9
49.3
49.0
48.3
49.4
49.8
50.6
51.0
49.8
49.4
49.6
50.0
50.2
50.2
42.6
43.2
45.7
46.7
46.5
50.2
51.0
52.5
54.3
54.4
52.7
52.6
54.0
54.5
55.4
48.8
51.3
56.8
60.3
61.3
40.5
44.2
51.9
57.9
57.1
59.9
61.4
64.2
64.9
66.4
63.2
64.3
65.7
65.7
65.9
48.8
51.1
59.6
62.2
66.7
49.5
51.2
55.7
55.5
55.5
50.3
50.6
52.0
54.5
56.2
46.4
47.6
52.2
57.6
61.7
55.4
57.3
60.0
65.0
72.0
57.1
58.2
59.9
63.0
64.7
1945
1946
1947
1948.
1949
62.7
68.0
77.8
83.8
83.0
58.4
66.9
81.3
88.2
84.7
67.5
69.3
74.5
79.8
81.0
66.1
66.5
68.7
73.2
76.4
70 1
76.9
89.2
95 0
91.3
55.4
58.3
64.3
71.6
77.0
57.5
60.7
65.7
69.8
72.0
63.6
68.2
76.2
79.1
78.9
75 0
77.5
82.5
86.7
89.9
67.3
69.5
75.4
78.9
81.2
1950
1951
1952
1953..
1954
83.8
90.5
92.5
93.2
93.6
85.8
95.4
97.1
95.6
95.4
83.2
88.2
89.9
92.3
93.4
79.1
82.3
85.7
90.3
93.5
90 1
98 2
97.2
96 5
96.3
79.0
84.0
89.6
92.1
90.8
73.4
76.9
81.1
83.9
86.6
78.9
86.3
87.3
88.1
88.5
89 3
92.0
92.4
93.3
92.4
82.6
86.1
90.6
92.8
94.3
93.3
94.7
98.0
100.7
101.5
94.0
94.7
97.8
101.9
100.3
94.1
95.5
98.5
100.2
101.3
94.8
96.5
98.3
100.1
101.6
95.9
97 8
99.5
99.8
100.6
89.7 . 88.6
91.3
91.8
96.5
95.5
99.7 100.1
103.8 104.4
90.0
93.7
97.1
100.4
102.4
92.1
93.4
96.9
100.8
102.4
94.3
95.8
98.5
99.8
101.8
103.1
104.2
105.4
106.7
108.1
101.4
102.6
103.6
105.1
106.4
103.1
103.9
104.8
106.0
107.2
103.1
104.4
105. 7
106.8
107.8
102 2
103.0
103.6
104.8
105,6
103.8
105.0
107.2
107.8
109.2
108.1
111.3
114.2
117.0
119.3
104.1
104.6
106.5
107.9
109.1
104.9
107.2
109.6
111.5
114.0
103.8
104.6
105.3
107.1
108.7
106.0
106.1
106.2
106.2
106.2
106.6
104.7
105.0
104.6
104.3
104.2
105.0
105.4
105.4
105.7
105.8
105.7
105.9
106.3
106.4
106.4
106.5
106.6
106.7
103.7
104.0
104.2
104.4
104 3
104.5
106.6
106.8
107.0
107.0
107.4
107.4
115.8
115.9
116.1
116.4
116.7
117.2
107.4
107.3
107.3
107.6
107.8
107.8
110.2
110.0
110.1
111.0
110.7
110.9
105.7
105.7
105.7
105.8
106.0
107.6
107.1
107.1
_ - 107.1
107.2
107.4
107.6
106.2
106.0
105.4
104.9
105.1
105.4
106.0
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.6
106.9
106.7
106.8
107.0
107.1
107.2
107.3
104.5
104 7
105.4
105.9
106 1
106.1
107.8
108.3
107.9
109.0
109.1
108.9
117.3
117.4
117.5
117.7
117.9
117.9
108.0
108.0
108.2
108.4
108.4
108.8
111.5
112.1
112.3
112.7
112.8
113.1
108.0
108.0
108.0
108.2
108.3
108.3
107.7
107.6
107.7
107.8
- __ __ 107.8
108.0
105.8
106.0
105.7
105.7
105.5
106.2
106.9
106.9
107.1
107.0
106.9
107.1
107.3
107.5
107.5
107.7
107.7
107.8
105.0
105.1
105.3
105.6
105.7
105.7
109.4
108.6
108.9
109.0
109.1
109.2
118.2
118.5
118.7
119.0
119.1
119.3
108.5
108.4
108.7
108.7
108.9
109.1
113.1
113.3
113.6
114.0
114.1
114.0
108.3
108.4
108.5
108.6
108.7
108.7
108.3
108.2
108.4
108.5
108.7
107.2
106.9
107.2
106.9
106.8
107.1
107.2
107.4
107.6
107.7
107.8
107.9
107.9
108.2
108.3
105.5
105.3
105.9
106.2
106.4
109.4
109.3
108.9
109.4
110.0
119.5
119.8
119.7
119.9
120.2
109.3
109.4
109.5
109.7
109.7
114.1
114.2
114.3
114.5
114.9
108.9
108.9
109.0
109.1
109.1
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 _
.
.
I960
1961
1962
1963
.
1964»«
1963: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
,
_.
May
June. ___
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov
D e c . . . _-_
1964: Jan *.
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
-_
_
July
Aug
Sept _ Oct
Nov
(J)
1
2
()
(*)
2
()
$
8
Not comparable to previous "apparel" series; index revised to include laundry and drycleaning;
formerly included in housing group; indexes prior to 1953 estimated.
»Not
available.
3
January-November average.
* New series, beginning January 1964. For details, see Department of Labor Release, Major Changes in
the Consumer Price Index, March 5,1964.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
244
TABLE B-46.—Consumer price indexes, by special groups, 1935-64
For city wage earners and clerical workers
[1957-59-100}
Year or month
V3ervices
Commodities
All
All
Commodities less food
All
items items
All
servless
All
All
less
shel- com- Food
ices
terns
Rent
food
ter
modiNon- servless
ices i
AH* Durarent*
ties1
bles^ durables
1935..
1936.
1937.
1938.
1939.
47.8
48.3
50.0
49.1
48.4
52.5
53.0
54.9
55.5
55.1
46.1
46.7
48.2
46.8
46.0
45.0
45.6
47.4
45.6
44.7
42.1
42.5
44.2
41.0
39.9
50.3
50.9
53.1
53.1
52.2
47.1
47.8
50.8
51.7
50.6
48.8
49.2
51.2
50.9
50.1
52.3
52.9
54.5
55.5
55.6
56.9
58.3
60.9
62.9
63.0
49.5
49.2
49.7
50.1
50.1
1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944-
48.8
51.3
56.8
60.3
61.3
55.3
56.9
60.9
62.6
65.0
46.3
49.1
55.3
59.5
60.5
45.1
48.2
55.2
60.1
60.8
40.5
44.2
51.9
57.9
57.1
52.5
55.1
61.3
63.9
67.4
50.2
53.7
60.9
63.0
68.7
50.6
52.8
58.4
60.9
64.0
55.8
56.5
58.3
59.4
60.8
63.2
64.3
65.7
65.7
65.9
50.2
50.7
53.0
55.3
58.1
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949-
62.7
68.0
77.8
83.8
83.0
66.5
69.4
75.8
81.3
82.1
62.1
68.4
79.4
85.6
84.1
62.6
69.4
83.4
89.4
87.1
58.4
66.9
81.3
88.2
84.7
70.1
74.4
84.0
90.4
89.1
73.9
77.4
83.8
90.0
91.3
66.3
71.1
81.7
88.0
86.3
61.6
62.8
65.4
69.5
72.7
66.1
66.5
68.7
73.2
76.4
59.2
61.4
64.5
68.2
71.6
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
83.8
90.5
92.5
93.2
93.6
83.1
88.4
90.5
92.3
92.8
84.7
91.8
93.6
93.9
93.9
87.6
95.5
96.7
96.4
95.5
85.8
95.4
97.1
95.6
95.4
89.0
95.7
96.5
96.6
95.6
92.3
99.3
100.6
99.5
97.1
86.2
92.7
93.2
94.0
94.4
75.1
79.0
82.6
86.0
88.7
79.1
82.3
85.7
90.3
93.5
73.6
78.1
81.8
84.9
87.4
19551956.
1957.
19581959.
93.3
94.7
98.0
100.7
101.5
93.1
94.7
97.9
100.1
102.0
93.4
94.7
97.8
100.7
101.5
94.6
95.5
98.5
100.8
100.9
94.0
94.7
97.8
101.9
100.3
94.9
95.9
98.8
99.9
101.2
95.3
95.4
98.5
100.0
101.5
94.4
96.5
99.1
99.8
101.0
90.5
92.8
96.6
100.3
103,2
94.8
96.5
98.3
100.1
101.6
89.4
91.9
96.1
100.2
103.6
1960
1961-.-.
1962--..
1963-.-1964 2 3..
103.1
104.2
105.4
106.7
108.1
103.7
104.8
106.1
107.4
108.8
103.0
104.2
105.4
106.7
107.9
101.7
102.3
103.2
104.1
105.1
101.4
102.6
103.6
105.1
106.4
101.7
102.0
102.8
103.5
104.3
100.9
100.8
101.8
102.1
102.9
102.6
103.2
103.8
104.8
105.7
106.6
108.8
110.9
113.0
115.1
103.1
104.4
105.7
106.8
107.8
107.4
110.0
112.1
114.5
116.8
1963: Jtfn,__
Feb...
Mar__
Apr...
MayJune..
106.0
106.1
106.2
106.2
106.2
106.6
106.5
106.6
106.8
107.0
107.0
107.3
105.9
106.1
106.1
106.1
106.1
106.6
103.4
103.6
103.6
103.6
103.5
104.0
104.7
105.0
104.6
104.3
104.2
105.0
102.6
102.7
102.9
103.1
103.0
103.3
101.2
101.2
101.5
101.8
101.8
102.0
104.0
104.1
104.2
104.3
104.2
104.5
112.0
112.1
112.3
112.5
112.6
112.9
106.3
106.4
106.4
106.5
106.6
106.7
113.4
113.4
113.7
114.0
114.0
114.4
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec...
107.1
107.1
107.1
107.2
107.4
107.6
107.5
107.6
107.8
108.1
108.4
108.5
107.1
107.2
107.1
107.2
107.4
107.5
104.6
104.6
104.4
104.5
104.7
104.9
106.2
106.0
105.4
104.9
105.1
105.4
103.5
103.6
103.7
104.2
104.5
104.5
102.1
102.1
102.2
102.7
103.1
103.0
104.8
105.0
105.2
105.6
105.8
105.9
113.1
113.3
113.5
113.7
113.9
114.1
106.7
114.6
106.8
114.8
107.0 ' 115.1
107.1
115.3
107.2
115.5
107.3
115.8
1964: Jan 3_.
Feb...
Mar..
Apr...
May..
June..
107.7
107.6
107.7
107.8
107.8
108.0
108.4
108.4
108.6
108.6
108.7
108.8
107.6
107.5
107.5
107.7
107.7
107.9
104.9
104.8
104.8
104.9
104.8
105.0
105.8 104.3
106.0 .104.1
105.7 104.3
105.7 104.3
105.5 104.3
106.2 104.3
102.9
102.9
102.9
102.9
102.8
102.9
105.6
105.3
105.6
105.6
105.7
105.6
114.2
114.3
114.5
114.8
114.9
115.1
107.3
107.5
107.5
107.7
107.7
107.8
116.0
116.0
116.3
116.5
116.6
116.8
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct.Nov..
108.3
108.2
108.4
108.5
108.7
108.8
108.9
109.0
109.2
109.5
108.2
108.1
108.2
108.3
108.5
105.3
105.2
105.4
105.5
105.6
107.2
106.9
107.2
106.9
106.8
102.9
102.8
102.8
103.1
103.5
105.6
105.6
105.8
106.0
106.1
115.3
115.4
115.5
115.7
116.0
107.8
107.9
107.9
108.2
108.3
117.0
117.2
117.4
117.6
117.9
104.3
104.2
104.3
104.6
104.8
1
Indexes have been revised to reflect transfer of homeownership from services to durable commodi es;
indexes prior to 1956 estimated. For details, see Department of Labor release, Major Changes in the mBurner Price Index, March 3,1964.
a January-November average.
• New series beginning January 1964.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
245
MONEY SUPPLY, CREDIT, AND FINANCE
TABLE B-47.—Money supply, 1947-64
[Averages of daily figures, billions of dollars]
Year and month
Total
money
supply
and
time
deposits
adjusted
Money supply >
Total
Currency
component
Total
money
Time supply
deand
De- posits time
mand addeposdeposit justits
com- ed*
adponent
justed
Money supply >
Total
Currency
component
U.S.
GovTime ernde- ment
De- posits demand ad- mand
deposit justdecom- ed*
posponent
its'
Unadjusted
Seasonally adjusted
1947: D e c .
1948: D e c .
1949: D e c .
148.5
147.5
147.6
113.1
111.5
111.2
26.4
25.8
25.1
86.7
85.8
86.0
35.4
36.0
36.4
151.0
150.0
150.0
115.9
114.3
113.9
26.8
26.2
25.5
89.1
88.1
88.4
35.1
35.7
36.1
1.0
1.8
2.8
1950:
1951:
1952:
1953:
1954:
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
152.9
160.9
168.5
173.3
180.6
116.2
122.7
127.4
128.8
132.3
25.0
26.1
27.3
27.7
27.4
91.2
96.5
100.1
101.1
104.9
36.7
38.2
41.1
44.5
48.3
155.6
163.8
171.7
176.3
183.6
119.2
125.8
130.8
132.1
135.6
25.4
26.6
27.8
28.2
27.9
93.8
99.2
103.0
103.9
107.7
36.4
38.0
40.9
44.2
48.0
2.4
2.7
4.9
3.8
5.0
1955:
1956:
1957:
1958:
1959:
1960:
1961:
1962:
1963:
1964:
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec 4.
185.2
188.8
193.3
206.5
209.5
135.2
136.9
135.9
141.1
142.1
27.8
28.2
28.3
28.6
28.9
107.4
108.7
107.6
112.6
113.2
50.0
51.9
57.4
65.4
67.4
188.2
191.7
196.0
209.3
212.2
138.6
140.3
139.3
144.7
145.6
28.4
28.8
28.9
29.2
29.5
110.2
111.5
110.4
115.5
116.1
49.6
51.4
56.7
64.6
66.6
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.9
4.9
214.0
228.3
245.5
265.5
285.9
141.1
145.5
147.6
163.2
159.4
29.6
30.6
32.4
34.2
112.1 72.9
116.0 82.8
117.1 97.9
120.7 112.3
125.2 126.5
216.8
231.2
248.3
268.2
288.6
144.7
149.4
151.6
157.2
163.6
29.6
30.2
31.2
33.1
34.9
115.2 72.1
119.2 81.8
120.3 96.7
124.1 111.0
128.7 125.0
4.7
4.9
5.6
5.2
5.5
247.2
248.9
250.8
252.0
253.2
254.8
148.0
148.4
148.9
149.2
149.6
150.2
30.7
30.9
31.1
31.2
31.3
31.5
117.4
117.6
117.8
118.1
118.3
118.6
99.2
100.5
101.9
102.8
103.6
104.6
250.4
248.5
249.5
252.9
251.8
263.5
151.8
148.4
147.6
149.8
147.5
148.3
30.5
30.5
30.7
30.9
31.0
31.4
121.2
117.9
116.9
118.9
116.5
116.9
98.6
100.1
101.9
103.1
104.3
105.2
4.8
5.7
6.0
4.2
7.1
7.5
256.6
258.3
259.7
261.6
264.6
265.5
151.0
151.2
151.6
152.3
153.5
153.2
31.6
31.8
31.9
32.0
32.3
32.4
119.4
119.5
119.7
120.3
121.2
120.7
105.6
107.1
108.1
109.3
111.1
112.3
255.7
256.7
258.9
262.0
265.0
268.2
149.5
149.2
150.6
152.5
154.8
157.2
31.8
31.9
31.9
32.1
32.6
33.1
117.7
117.3
118.6
120.4
122.1
124.1
106.2
107.5
108.3
109.5
110.2
111.0
7.8
6.3
6.6
5.3
4.4
5.2
MPay-~
June..
267.7
268.9
269.9
270.9
271.9
274.1
153.8
153.8
154.2
154.5
154.5
155.6
32.7
32.9
33.0
33.3
33.4
121.2
121.1
121.3
121.5
121.3
122.1
113.9
115.1
115.7
116.4
117.4
118.5
271.0
268.4
268.6
271.7
270.5
272.8
157.8
163.8
152.9
155.0
152.4
153.6
32.4
32.3
32.6
32.7
33.0
33.3
125.4
121.5
120.3
122.3
119.4
120.3
113.2
114.6
115.7
116.7
118.1
119.2
4.2
4.8
6.1
4.2
6.9
7.8
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct...
Nov..
Dec4.
276.1
277.8
279.7
281.7
284.2
285.9
156.7
157.2
168.0
168.6
159.1
159.4
33.5
33.7
33.8
33.9
34.2
34.2
123.3
123.5
124.2
124.7
124.9
125.2
119.4
120.6
121.7
123.1
125.1
126.5
275.3
276.2
278.9
282.1
284.5
288.6
155.2
155.1
156.9
158.8
160.4
163.6
33.7
33.8
33.8
34.0
34.5
34.9
121.5
121.3
123.1
124.8
125.9
128.7
120.1
121.1
122.0
123.3
124.1
125.0
7.0
6.4
6.6
5.6
5.8
5.5
1963: Jan...
Feb..
Mar_.
MayJunc.
July..
Aug..
Sept_.
Oct...
Nov..
Dec.
1964: Jan...
Feb..
Mar._
i Money supply consists of (1) currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and vaults of all
commercial banks; (2) demand deposits at all commercial banks, other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, less cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float;
and (3) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks.
* Time deposits adjusted are time deposits at all commercial banks other than those due to domestic
commercial banks and the U.S. Government.
*4 Deposits at all commercial banks.
Preliminary.
NOTE.—Between January and August 1959, the series were expanded to include data for all banks in
Alaska and Hawaii.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
246
TABLE B-48.—Bank loans and investments, 1929-64
[Billions of dollars]
Weekly reporting member banks •
All commercial banks»
Total
loans
and
invest-3
ments
Year or month
1929: June 8 1930: June*1
1931: June 1932: June'1
1933: June
1934* June • - 1935 —
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
_
19431944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
I960
1951
1952
1953
1954-.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962«
1963 • 7
1964 8 __1963: Jan
Feb
Mar.._
Apr
May
June .
.
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec«
1964: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct 77
Nov
__
Dec« r
-
......
..
Investments
Loans 9
49.4
48.9
44.9
36.1
30.4
32.7
36.1
39.6
38.4
38.7
40.7
43.9
60.7
67.4
85.1
105.5
124.0
114.0
116.3
* 113.0
118.7
124.7
130.2
139.1
143.1
153.1
157.6
161.6
166.4
181.2
185.9
194.5
209.8
228.3
246.5
266.0
229.6
231.6
233.5
233.5
235.5
238.4
238.0
239 2
241.5
241.2
244.2
246.5
246 7
248.4
251.4
251.8
253.5
256.3
254.5
258.7
261.7
260.8
264.9
266.0
35.7
34.5
29 2
21.8
16.3
15.7
15.2
16.4
17.2
16.4
17.2
18.8
21.7
19.2
19.1
21.6
26.1
31.1
38 1
M1.5
42.0
51.1
66.5
62.8
66.1
69.0
80.5
88.0
91.4
95.6
107.6
113.8
120.5
133.9
149.4
166.7
134.8
136.3
137.3
137.6
139 4
141.7
142.6
143 6
145.4
146.1
148.4
149.4
151 0
151.8
153.9
155.4
157.3
160.0
159 7
161.5
163.0
163.1
165.2
166.7
U.S. Government
securities
4.9
5.0
6.0
6.2
7.5
10.3
13.8
15.3
14.2
16.1
16.3
17.8
21.8
41.4
59.8
77.6
90.6
74.8
69.2
162.3
66.4
61.2
60.3
62.1
62.3
67.7
60.3
57.3
57.1
65.1
57.8
59.9
65.4
65.2
62.1
60.9
65.0
65.1
65.7
64.7
64.2
64.4
62.6
62.0
62.2
60.8
61.4
62.1
60.8
61.2
62.1
60.8
60.3
60.0
58.4
60.2
61.2
59.9
61.3
60.9
Other
securities
8.7
9.4
9.7
8.1
6.5
6.7
7.1
7.9
7.0
7.2
7.1
7.4
7.2
6.8
6.1
6.3
7.3
8.1
9.0
19.2
10.3
12.4
13.4
14.2
14.7
16.4
16.8
16.3
17.9
20.5
20.5
20.8
23.9
29.2
35.0
38.4
29.8
30.2
30.5
31.2
31.9
32.3
32.8
33.6
33.9
34.3
34.4
35.0
34.9
35.4
35.4
35.6
35.9
36.3
36.4
37.0
37.5
37.8
38.4
38.4
Business
loans *
5.1
4.2
4.7
5.3
7.1
6.3
6.4
6.5
7.3
11.3
14.7
15.6
13.9
17.9
21.6
23.4
23.4
22.4
26.7
30.8
31.8
31.7
30.7
32.2
32.9
35.2
38.8
41.7
34.3
34.6
35.2
35.0
35.0
35.6
35.0
35.2
35.9
36.3
37.3
38.8
37.2
37.6
38.2
38.1
38.3
38.7
38.5
38.9
40.0
39.9
40.5
42.1
1 Data are for last Wednesday of month (except June 30 and December 31 call dates) for all commercial
banks. Seasonally adjusted data beginning 1948.
2 Adjusted to exclude interbank loans beginning 1948.
3 Member banks are all national banks and those State banks which have taken membership in the
Federal Reserve System. Weekly reporting member banks comprise about 350 large banks in over 100
leading cities. Data are for last Wednesday of month.
* Commercial and industrial loans and prior to 1956, agricultural loans. Beginning July 1959, loans to
financial institutions excluded. Series revised beginning July 1946, October 1955, July 1958, and July 1959.
Prior to 1944 published data adjusted to include open market paper.
s June data are used because complete end-of-year data are not available prior to 1935 for U.S. Government
obligations and other securities.
e Commercial bank data are estimates for December 31.
^ Preliminary.
NOTE.—National bank data in Alaska and Hawaii included beginning April 1954 and 1959, respectively.
All other bank data in Alaska and Hawaii included beginning January 1959 and August 1959, respectively.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
247
TABLE B-49.—Bondyields and interest rates, 1929-64
[Percent per annuml
Corporate
bonds
(Moody's)
U.S. Government
securities
Year or month
3-month 9-12
3-5
Treas- month year
Taxable
Aaa
ury
issues
* bonds*
issues'
bills i
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
(«)
(a)
1.402
.879
.515
.256
CO
CO
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
.137
.143
.447
.053
.023
00
(')
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
.014
.103
.326
.373
.375
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
.375
.375
1929
00
00
00
00
/fl\
(')
5.90
4.27
(7)
5.85
5.16
4.55
4.58
5.01
4.49
4.00
5.90
7.62
9.30
7.76
6.32
4.07
4.01
4.65
4.71
4.03
(7)
3.59
2.64
2 73
1.73
1 02
3.04
2.11
2 82
2.56
1 54
3.60
3.24
3.26
3.19
3.01
5.75
4.77
5.03
5.80
4.96
3.40
3.07
3.10
2.91
2.76
1.50
1 50
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.46
2.47
2.48
2.84
2.77
2.83
2.73
2.72
4.75
4.33
4.28
3.91
3.61
2.60
2.10
2.36
2.06
1.86
2.62
2.53
2.61
2.82
2.66
3.29
3.05
3.24
3.47
3.42
1.67
1.64
2.01
2.40
2.21
2.66
2.12
1.29
1.11
1.40
.83
.59
0.75
.79
46
1 34
L. 33
18
2.1
2.0
.56
.53
2.4
.73
2.2
2.6
.66
69
1.00
1.00
"1.00
•1 00
U.00
.81
•1.00
U.00
1.00
1.34
1.50
1.98
2.00
2.19
2.72
2.37
2.7
3.1
3.5
1.45
2.16
2.33
2.52
1.58
1.69
1.75
1.75
1.99
1.60
3.53
3.88
4.71
4.73
5.05
2.63
2.93
3.60
3.56
3.95
3.7
4.2
4.3
•5.0
2.18
3.31
3.81
2.46
3.97
1.89
2.77
3.12
2.16
3.36
4.41
4.35
4.33
4.26
4.40
6.19
5.08
5.02
4.86
4.83
3.73
3.46
3.18
3.23
3.22
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.85
2.97
3.26
3.55
3.97
4.08
4 09
4.01
3.89
3.88
3.90
4.42
4 42
4.39
4.33
4.28
4.28
5.08
5 07
5.04
5.02
5.00
5.02
3.32
3.28
3.19
3.08
3.09
3.24
4.98
3.26
3 22
3.25
3.20
3.16
3.25
3.53
3.00
3.00
3.23
3.55
3.00
3 00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
4.02
3.98
3.94
3.89
3 87
3.87
4.34
4.35
4.32
4.28
4 25
4.24
5.05
5.06
5.03
4.99
4 96
4.92
3.30
3.31
3.18
3.03
3.03
3.12
4.99
3.36
3.30
3.34
3.27
3 23
3.29
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3 00
3.00
]L.102
L.040
I960
1951
1952
1953
1954
1 918
1.552
1L.766
.931
.953
1.26
1.73
1.81
2.07
.92
1.50
1.93
2.13
2.56
1.82
2.32
2.57
2.68
2.94
2.55
2.62
2.86
2.96
3.20
2.90
3.24
3.41
3.52
3.74
3.51
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1.753
2.658
3.267
1.839
3.405
1.89
2.83
3.53
2.09
4.11
2.50
3.12
3.62
2.90
4.33
2.84
3.08
3.47
3.43
4.08
3.06
3.36
3.89
3.79
4.38
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
2.928
2.378
2.778
3.157
3.549
3.55
2.91
3.02
3.28
3.76
3.99
3.60
3.57
3.72
4.06
4.02
3.90
3.95
4.00
4.15
1962- Jan
Feb. .
Mar
Apr.
May
June,
2.746
2 752
2.719
2.735
2.694
2.719
3.08
3 11
2.99
2.94
2.98
3.02
3.84
3 77
3.55
3.48
3.53
3.51
2.945
2.837
2.792
2.751
2 803
2.856
3.23
3.13
3.00
2.90
2 92
2.95
3.71
3.57
3.56
3.46
3 46
3.44
See footnotes at end of table.
21
.75
75
.94
.81
.59
1.03
1.44
1.49
L.32
6?
43
July
Aug
Sept _
Oct
Nov
Dec
(7)
0)
O)
O)
2.1
2.5
2.7
16
.88
1.14
1.14
KQ4
0)1
C)
0)
0)
2.1
.82
2.37
2.19
2.25
2.44
2.31
.81
Average
rate on
Fedshort- Prime
eral
comterm
Remerbank
serve
cial
loans
Bank
to busi- paper,
disnesscount
selected m o n t h s rate
cities
4.73
.50
.73
CO
Highgrade
municipal
bonds
(StandBaa a r d *
Poor's)
248
2.2
3.7
3.6
4.6
5.01
5.02
.75
TABLE B-49.—Bondyields and interest rates, 1929-64— Continued
[Percent per annum]
Corporate
bonds
(Moody's)
U.S. Government
securities
Year or month
3-month 9-12
Treas- month
ury
9
bills i issues
3-5
year
Taxable Aaa
bonds«
Highgrade
municipal
bonds
(StandBaa ard &
Poor's)
rate on Prime
short- comterm
merbank
cial
loans paper.
to busiselected months
cities
2.97
2.89
2.99
3.02
3.06
3.17
3.47
3.48
3.50
3.56
3.57
3.67
3.89
3.92
3.93
3.97
3.97
4.00
4.21
4.19
4.19
4.21
4.22
4.23
4.91
4.89
4.88
4.87
4.86
4.84
3.12
3.18
3.11
3.11
3.15
3.27
5.00
3.41
3.54
3.59
3.70
3.77
3.78
3.81
3.88
3.91
3.97
4.04
4.01
3.99
4.04
4.07
4.11
4.14
4.26
4.29
4.31
4.32
4.33
4.35
4.84
4.83
4.84
4.83
4.84
4.85
3.29
3.22
3.27
3.32
3.41
3.34
5.01
3.529
3.532
3.553
3.484
3.482
3.478
3.66
3.63
3.67
3.63
3.67
4.06
4.02
4.15
4.18
4.07
4.03
4.15
4.14
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.37
4.36
4.38
4.40
,41
.41
4.83
4.83
4.83
4.85
4.85
4.85
3.23
3.17
3.32
3.29
3.21
3.20
4.99
3.479
3.506
3.527
3.575
3.624
3.856
3.68
3.73
3.82
3.83
3.88
3.96
3.99
4.03
4.04
4.04
4.07
4.13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.12
4.14
.40
.41
.42
.42
.43
,44
4.83
4.82
4.82
4.81
4.81
4.81
3.18
3.20
3.25
3.26
3.18
3.15
4.98
1963: Jan..
Feb..
Mar.
Apr.
May
June.
2.914
2.916
2.897
2.909
2.920
2.995
JulyAug.
Sept.
OctNov.
Dec.
3.143
3.320
3.379
3.453
3.522
1964: Jan..
Feb..
Mar.
Apr..
May.
June.
July.
Aug.
Sept.
OctNov.
Dec.
5.01
5.00
4.99
5.00
Federal
Reserve
Bank
discount
rate
3.34
3.25
3.34
3.32
3.25
3.38
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.49
3.72
3.88
3.88
3.88
3.96
3.24
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.97
3.88
4.00
3.91
3.89
4.00
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.96
3.88
3.89
4.00
4.02
4.17
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.62
4.00
i Rate on new issues within period. Issues were tax exempt prior to March 1, 1941, and fully taxable
thereafter. For the period 1934-37, series includes issues with maturities of more than 3 months.
* Includes certificates of indebtedness and selected note and bond issues (fully taxable).
* Selected note and bond issues. Issues were partially tax exempt prior to 1941, and fully taxable thereafter.
« First issued in 1941. Series includes bonds which are neither due nor callable before a given number of
years as follows: April 1953 to date, 10 years; April 1952-March 1953, 12 years: October 1941-March 1952,
15 years.
* Treasury bills were first issued in December 1929 and were issued irregularly in 1930.
* Not available before August 1942.
r Not available on same basis as for 1939 and subsequent years.
8
From October 30, 1942, to April 24, 1946, a preferential rate of 0.50 percent was in effect for advances
secured by Government securities maturing or callable in 1 year or less.
* Series revised to exclude loans to nonbank financial institutions.
NOTE.—Yields and rates computed for New York City, except for short-term bank loans.
Sources: Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Moody's Investors
Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
249
TABLE B-50.—Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 192&-64
[Averages of dally figures, millions of dollars]
Reserve Bank credit outstanding
Year and montb
Total
Member
U.8.
bank
Government se- borrowcurities
ings
All
other,
mainly
float
Total
Required
Excess
Member
bank free
reserves
(excess
reserves
less borrowings)
2,395
2,347
48
-763
292
410
57
142
32
2,415
2,069
2,435
2,588
4,037
2,342
2,010
1,909
U.822
2,290
73
60
526
»766
1,748
-264
-703
245
671
1,738
16
7
57
47
47
99
5,716
6,665
6,879
8,745
11,473
2,733
4,619
5,808
5,520
6,462
2,046
1,071
3,226
5,011
2,977
2,039
1,055
3,219
5,008
1929: Dec.
1,643
446
801
Dec1931: Dec...
1932: Dec1933: Dec
1934: Dec
1,273
1,950
2,192
2,472
644
777
1,854
2,432
2,430
337
763
281
95
10
1935: Dec.
1936: Dec1937: Dec.
1938: Dec.
2,494
2,498
2,628
2,618
2,612
2,430
2,434
2,565
2,564
2,510
6
Dec.
Member bank reserves
1940:
1941:
1942:
1943:
1944:
Dec...
Dec
Dec...
Dec...
Dec
2,305
2,404
6,035
11,914
19,612
2,188
2,219
5,549
11,166
3
5
4
00
265
114
180
483
659
654
14,049
12,812
13.152
12,749
14,168
7,403
9,422
10,776
11,701
12,884
6,646
3,390
2,376
1,048
1,284
6,643
3,385
2,372
958
1,019
1945:
1946:
1947:
1948:
1949:
1950:
1951:
1952:
1953:
1954:
Dec
Dec
Dec...
Dec.
Dec
Dec
Dec...
Dec
Dec
Dec
24,744
24.746
22,858
23,978
19,012
23.708
23,767
21,905
23,002
18,287
334
157
224
134
118
702
821
729
842
607
16,027
16,517
17.261
19,990
16,291
14,636
15,617
16,275
19,193
15,488
1,491
900
986
797
1,167
743
762
663
21,606
25,446
27,299
27,107
26,317
20,345
23,409
24,400
25,639
24,917
142
657
1,593
441
246
1,119
1,380
1,306
1,027
1,154
17,391
20,310
21,180
19,920
19,279
16,364
19,484
20,457
19,227
18,576
1,027
826
723
693
703
885
169
—870
252
457
1955:
1956:
1957:
1958:
1959:
1960:
1961:
1962:
1963:
1964:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec—
Dee..DecDec...
Dec 3 -.
26,853
27,166
26,186
28,412
29,435
24,602
24,765
23,982
26,312
27,036
710
557
906
1,412
1,703
1,494
1,543
1,493
19,240
19,635
19,420
18,899
'18,932
18,646
18,883
18,843
18,383
18,460
594
652
677
516
482
-245
-36
-133
-41
-424
29,060
31,217
33.218
36,610
39,873
27.248
29.098
30,546
33,729
37,126
87
149
304
327
243
1,725
1,970
2,368
2,554
2,504
19,283
20.118
20,040
20,746
21,615
18, M4
19,550
19,468
20,210
21,201
572
536
414
682
419
268
209
171
1963: Jan.._
Feb.MarApr...
MayJune-
32.663
32,287
32,477
32,692
32,972
33.454
30,198
30,541
30,613
30.897
31.138
31.540
172
155
121
209
236
2,366
1.574
1,709
1.674
1.625
1,678
20,032
19,582
19.515
19,572
19,679
19,729
19,558
19,109
19,091
19.138
19,223
19,355
474
473
424
434
456
374
384
300
271
313
248
141
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct.Nov..
Dec.
34,262
34.080
34,440
34,628
35,353
36,610
32.158
32.233
32.341
32.648
33.126
33.729
322
330
321
313
376
327
1,782
1.517
1,778
1,667
1,851
2,554
20,020
19,719
19,945
20.003
20.114
20.746
19.637
19.256
19,533
19,596
19,705
20.210
483
463
412
407
409
536
158
137
92
94
33
209
1964: Jan...
Feb...
Mar..
35,770
35,028
35,454
35,602
35,981
36,760
33,200
33,009
33,389
33,498
33,907
34,631
256
304
259
213
255
270
2,314
1,715
1,806
1,891
1,819
1,859
20,673
20,146
20,213
20,277
20,220
20,558
20,242
19,753
19,855
19,897
19,883
20,168
431
393
358
380
337
175
89
99
167
82
120
37,077
37,170
37,578
37.747
38,421
39,873
34,898
35,118
35,273
35,334
36,036
37,126
265
334
331
309
430
243
1,914
1,718
1,974
2,104
1,955
2,504
20,665
20,566
20,928
21,033
21,160
21,615
20,265
20,149
20,503
20,618
20,764
21,201
400
417
420
415
396
414
135
83
89
106
-34
171
Mayl!
June..
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct—
Nov3.
Dec*.
i Data from March 1933 through April 1934 are for licensed banks only,
s Beginning December 1959, total reserves held include vault cash allowed.
* Preliminary.
NOTE.—Data for member banks in Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1954 and 1959, respectively.
8ource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
250
TABLE B-51.—Short- and intermediate-term consumer credit outstanding, 1929-64
[Millions of dollars]
Instalment credit
End of year or month
Total
Total
Noninstalment credit
Other Repair
Autoconand
Permobile sumer modern- sonal
paper» goods l ization loans
paper loans*
Total
Charge
acOthers
counts
1929—.
7,116
3,524
1,384
1,544
27
569
3,592
1,996
1,596
1930
1931—.
1932....
1933—.
1934....
6,351
5,315
4,026
3,885
4,218
3,022
2,463
1,672
1,723
1,999
986
684
356
493
614
1,432
1,214
834
799
889
25
22
18
15
37
579
543
464
416
459
3,329
2,852
2,354
2,162
2,219
,833
,635
1,374
1,286
1,306
1,496
1,217
980
876
913
1035...
1936...
1937-.
1938...
1939...
5,190
6,375
6,948
6.370
7,222
2,817
3,747
4.118
3,686
4,503
992
1,372
1,494
1,099
1,497
,000
,290
L,505
,442
L,620
253
364
219
218
298
572
721
900
927
1,088
2,373
2,628
2,830
2,684
2,719
1,354
1,428
1,504
]1,403
1,414
1,019
1,200
1,326
1,281
1,305
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
8,338
9,172
5,983
4,901
5,111
5,514
6,085
3.166
2,136
2,176
2,071
2,458
742
355
397
;L.827
1,929
1,195
819
791
371
376
255
130
119
1,245
1,322
974
832
869
2.824
3,087
2,817
2,765
2,935
1,471
1,645
1,444
1.440
1,517
1,353
1,442
1,373
1,325
1,418
1945...
1946...
1947...
10481949..
5,665
8.384
11,598
14,447
17,364
2.462
4,172
6.695
8,996
11,590
455
981
1,924
3,018
4,555
816
1,290
2,143
2,901
3,706
182
405
718
853
898
1,009
1.496
1,910
2,224
2,431
3,203
4,212
4,903
5,451
5,774
1,612
2,076
2,381
2,722
2,854
1,591
2,136
2,522
2,729
2,920
1050—
1951
1952
1053—
1054—
21,471
22,712
27,520
31,393
32,464
14,703
15,294
19,403
23,005
23,568
6,074
5,972
7,733
9,835
9,809
4,799
4,880
6,174
6,779
6,751
1,016
1,085
1.385
1,610
1,616
2,814
3,357
4,111
4,781
5,392
6,768
7,418
8,117
8,388
8,896
3,367
3,700
4,130
4,274
4,485
3,401
3,718
3,987
4,114
4,411
1055—
1956—
1057—
1958—
1059—
38,830
42.334
44,970
45,129
51,542
28.906
31,720
33,867
33,642
39,245
13,460
14,420
15.340
14,152
16,420
7,641
8.606
8,844
9,028
10.630
1,693
1,905
2,101
2,346
2,809
6,112
6,789
7,582
8,116
9,386
9,924
10,614
11,103
11.487
12,297
4,795
4,995
5,146
5,060
5,104
5,129
5,619
5,957
6,427
7,193
1960
1961—
1962....
1963—.
1964*..
56,028
57.678
63,164
69,890
76,700
42,832
43,527
48.034
53,745
59,300
17,688
17.223
19,540
22,199
24,550
11,525
11.857
12.605
13,766
15,200
3,139
3,191
3.246
3,389
3,500
10,480
11,256
12,643
14,391
16,050
13,196
14,151
15.130
16,145
17,400
5,329
5,324
5,684
5,871
6,300
7,867
8,827
9,446
10,274
11,100
1063: Jan....
Feb.Mar..
Apr....
May..
June..
62,462
61,989
62,149
63,167
64,135
64,987
47,920
47,852
48,075
48,806
49,484
50,307
19,582
19,678
19,930
20.376
20,794
21,236
12,453
12.250
12.149
12.197
12,272
12.422
3,211
3,185
3.177
3,200
3,245
3,281
12,674
12.739
12.819
13.033
13,173
13,368
14,542
14,137
14.074
14.361
14,651
14,680
5,071
4,511
4,374
4,581
4.793
4,783
9.471
9.626
9,700
9,780
9,858
9,897
July...
Aug...
Sept...
Oct...
Nov...
Dec...
65,491
66,308
66,538
67,088
67, 746
69,890
50,894
51,526
51,718
52,257
52.695
53,745
21,593
21,819
21.725
21,971
22. 107
22,199
12, 459
12,607
12, 702
12,845
13.0-16
13,766
3,316
3,357
3.377
3,400
3,407
3,389
13,526
13,743
13,914
14,041
14. 135
14,391
14,597
14,782
14,820
14.831
15.051
16,145
4,760
4,839
4,833
4,898
4.999
5,871
9,837
9,943
9,987
.9.933
10.052
10,274
69,203
68,786
68,913
69,816
70,945
71,907
53,597
53,552
53,795
54,382
55,120
55,914
22,189
22,271
22,471
22,830
23, 255
23,702
13.638
13,467
13,451
13,476
13,599
13,730
3,354
3,335
3,321
3,328
3,364
3.395
14,416
14,479
14, 552
14,748
14,902
15,087
15,606
15,234
15,118
15,434
15,825
15,993
5,339
4,805
4,634
4,833
5,099
5,238
10,267
10,429
10,484
10,601
10,726
10,755
72,456
73,069
73,495
73.928
74,371
76,700
56,496
57,055
57,446
57,826
58,085
59,300
24,024
24,251
24,295
24,423
24,367
24,550
13,813
13,923
14.046
14, 222
14,431
15,200
3,426
3,466
3,493
3,509
3,516
3,500
15,233
15,415
15,612
15,672
15,771
16,050
15,960
16,014
16,049
16,102
16,286
17,400
5,240
5,231
5,223
5,352
5,394
6,300
10,720
10,783
10,826
10,750
10,892
11,100
1964: Jan__
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May.
June.
July...
Aug
Sept..
Oct...
Nov...
Dec *..
1
Includes all consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer
* Includes only such loans held by financial institutions; those held by retail outlets are included in "other
consumer
goods paper."
1
Single-payment loans and service credit.
* Preliminary; December by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning January and August 1959, respectively.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted).
251
T A B L E B-52.—Instalment credit extended and repaid, 7946—64
[Millions of dollars]
Total
Automobile
paper
Other consumer
goods paper
Repair and
modernization
loans
Extended
Extended
Year or month
Personal
loans
Extended
Repaid
Extended
1946194719481949-
8,495
12,713
15,585
18,108
6,785
10,190
13,284
15,514
1,969
3,692
5,217
6,967
1,443
2,749
4,123
5,430
3,077
4,498
5,383
5,865
2,603
3,645
4,625
5,060
423
704
714
734
200
391
579
3,026
3,819
4,271
4,542
2,539
3,405
3,957
4,335
1950..
1951..
195219531954..
21,558
23,576
29,514
31,558
31,051
18,445
22,985
25,405
27,956
30,488
8,530
8,956
11,764
12,981
11,807
7,011
9,058
10,003
10,879
11,833
7,150
7,485
9,186
9,227
9,117
6,057
7,404
7,892
8,622
9,145
835
841
1,217
1,344
1,261
717
772
917
1,119
1,255
5,043
6,294
7,347
8,006
4,660
5,751
6,593
7,336
8,255
1955..
1956..
1957..
19581959-
38,972
39,868
42,016
40,119
48,052
33,634
37,054
39,868
40,344
42,603
16,734
15,515
16,465
14,226
17,779
13,082
14,555
15,545
15,415
15,579
10,642
11,721
11,807
11,747
13,982
9,752
10,756
11,569
11,563
12,402
1,393
1,582
1,674
1,871
2,222
1,316
1,370
1,477
1,626
1,765
10,203
11,051
12,069
12, 275
14,070
9,484
10,373
11,276
11,741
12,857
196019611962..
1963..
19641
49, 560
48, 396
55,126
60. 822
65,800
45,972
47, 700
50, 620
55, 111
60,275
17,654
16,007
19,796
22,013
23,525
16. 384
16, 472
17,478
19, 354
21,150
14,470
14, 578
15,685
17,007
19,000
13, 574
14,246
14,939
15,846
17, 600.
2,213
2,068
2.051
2,178
2,225
1,883
2,015
1,996
2,03S
2,100
15,223
15, 744
17,594
19, 624
21,050
14,130
14,967
16,206
17, 876
19,425
Repaid
Repaid
Repaid
Extended
Repaid
Seasonally adjusted
Mar..
Apr..
MayJune..
4,899
4,957
4,973
5,008
4,985
5,054
4,414
4,462
4,496
4,487
4, 544
4,568
1,807
1,809
1,811
1,870
1,847
1,820
1,564
1,566
1,546
1, 585
1,611
1,588
1,360
1,395
1,406
1,359
1,357
1,408
1,277
1,289
1,324
1,276
1,294
1,317
172
169
180
187
188
186
167
165
170
170
170
167
1,560
1, 584
1,576
1,592
1, 593
1,640
1,406
1,442
1,456
1,456
1,469
1,496
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oct.Nov..
Dec._
5,100
5,100
5,093
5,311
4,979
5,272
4,591
4,619
4, 752
4,780
4,596
4,812
1,854
1,802
1,730
1,910
1,792
1,914
1,603
1,607
1,659
1,676
1,638
1,707
1,409
1,441
1,425
1,457
1,432
1,523
1,330
1,326
1,347
1,362
1,324
1,384
191
185
181
188
168
172
171
170
174
170
167
177
1,646
1,672
1,757
1,756
1,587
1,663
1,487
1, 516
1,572
1, 572
1,467
1,544
1964: Jan...
Feb..
Mar._
Apr...
5,276
5,421
5,480
5,371
5,552
5,399
4,848
4,842
4,956
4,959
5,059
5,029
1,888
1,953
1,942
1,961
2,023
1,962
1,684
1,716
1,735
1,759
1,776
1,768
1,493
1,578
1,665
1,544
1, 589
1,537
1,441
1,395
1,468
1,453
1,483
1,486
185
186
179
174
187
183
176
171
174
172
175
170
1,710
1,704
1,694
1,692
1,753
1,717
1,547
1,560
1,579
1.575
1,625
1,605
5,541
5,529
5,617
5,507
5,456
5,700
5,058
5,094
5,104
5,097
5,155
5,200
1,996
2,017
2,024
1,924
1,858
2,050
1,781
1,789
1,802
1,788
1,818
1,825
1,546
1,570
1,588
1,582
1,631
1,675
1,448
1,496
1,491
1, 456
1,509
1,550
189
186
186
180
175
175
171
172
172
167
174
175
1,810
1,756
1,819
1,821
1,792
1,800
1,658
1,637
1,639
1,686
1,654
1,650
1963: Jan...
Feb..
May-
June..
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec L
» Preliminary; December by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning January and August 1959, respectively. Therefore, the difference between extensions and repayments for January and August 1959 and for the year 1959
does not equal the net change in credit outstanding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted).
252
TABLE B-53.—Mortgage debt outstanding, by type of property and offinancings7939-64
[Billions of dollars]
Nonfarm properties
1- to 4-family houses
E n d of year or quarter
All
properties
Government underwritten
Total
Total
Total
FHA
insured
VA
guaranteed
Multifamily Farm
and
propcomerties
Con- mercial
venproptional » erties »
1939
35.5
28.9
16.3
1.8
1.8
14.5
12.5
6.6
1940
1941..
1942
1943
1944
36.5
37.6
36.7
35.3
34.7
30.0
31.2
30.8
29.9
29.7
17.4
18.4
18.2
17.8
17.9
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2
2.3
3.0
3.7
4.1
4.2
15.1
15.4
14.5
13.7
13.7
12.6
12.9
12.5
12.1
11.8
6.5
6.4
6.0
5.4
4.9
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
35.5
41.8
48.9
56.2
62.7
30.8
36.9
43.9
50.9
57.1
18.6
23.0
28.2
33.3
37.6
4.3
6.1
9.3
12.5
15.0
4.1
3.7
3.8
5.3
6.9
0.2
2.4
5.5
7.2
8.1
14.3
16.9
18.9
20.8
22.6
12.2
13 8
15.7
17.6
19.5
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.6
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954. .
72.8
82.3
91.4
101.3
113.7
66.7
75.6
84.2
93.6
105.4
45.2
51.7
58.5
66.1
75.7
18.9
22.9
25.4
28.1
32.1
8.6
9.7
10.8
12.0
12.8
10.3
13.2
14.6
16.1
19.3
26.3
28.8
33.1
38.0
43.6
21.6
23.9
25.7
27.5
29.7
6.1
6.7
7.2
7.7
8.2
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
129.9
144.5
156.5
171.8
190.8
120.9
134.6
146.1
160.7
178.7
88.2
99.0
107.6
117.7
130.9
38.9
43.9
47.2
50.1
53.8
14.3
15.5
16.5
19.7
23.8
24.6
28.4
30.7
30.4
30.0
49.3
55.1
60.4
67.6
77.0
32.6
35 6
38.5
43.0
47.9
9.0
9.8
10.4
11.1
12.1
1960
1961
1962 3•
1963
1964 3 - .
206.8
226.3
251.6
280.9
310.4
194.0
212.4
236.4
264.2
291.6
141.3
153.1
166.5
182.2
197.9
56.4
59.1
62.0
65.5
(4)
26.7
29.5
32.3
35.0
(4)
29.7
29.6
29.7
30.5
(4)
84.8
93.9
104.5
116.7
(4)
52.7
59.3
69.9
82.0
93.8
12.8
13.9
15.2
16.8
18.8
257.1
265.1
273.1
280.9
241.6
249.0
256.5
264.2
169.2
173.7
178.2
182.2
62.8
63.5
64.3
65.5
33.0
33.5
34.3
35.0
29.8
30.0
30.0
30.5
106.4
110.2
113.9
116.7
72.4
75.3
78.3
82.0
15.5
16.1
16.5
16.8
287.0
295.1
303.1
310.4
269.7
277.1
284.6
291.6
185 2
189.6
194.0
197.9
66.3
66.8
67.9
(4)
35.7
36.3
37.4
(4)
30.6
30.5
30.5
(4)
118.9
122.7
126.2
(4)
84.5
87.5
90.6
93.8
17.3
18.0
18.5
18.8
1963: I » . .
113
.
III 3
IV3 _
1964- 13
113 .
Ill 3
IV 3..
1
Derived figures.
2 Includes negligible amount of farm loans held by savings and loan associations.
Preliminary.
Not available.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, estimated and compiled from data supplied
by various Government and private organizations.
3
4
757-981 0 — 6 5 -
-17
253
TABLE B--54.—Net public and private debt, 1929-641
[Billions of dollars]
Private
(Corporate
End of
year*
Individual and noncorporate
Fed- and
eral
Nonfarm
Total Gov- local
govemComment ern- 8 Total
and ment
merTotal Long- Short- Total Farm'
ConMortcial
agency
term term
Total gage and
sumer
fin ancial*
1929.
190.9
16.5
13.2 161.2
88.9
47.3
41.6
72.3
12.2
60.1
31.2
22.4
6.4
1930....
1931
1932
1933
1934....
191.0
181.9
174.6
168.5
171.4
16.5
18.5
21.3
24.3
30.4
14.1
15.5
16.6
16.7
160.4
147.9
136.7
127.5
15.9 125.1
89.3
83.5
80.0
76.9
75.5
51.1
50.3
49.2
47.9
44.6
38.2
33.2
30.8
29.1
30.9
71.1
64.4
56.7
50.6
49.6
11.8
11.1
10.1
32.0
30.9
29.0
26.3
25.5
21.6
17.6
14.0
11.7
11.2
5.8
8.9
59.3
53.3
46.6
41.5
40.6
1935.
1936....
1937....
1938....
1939....
174.7
180.3
182.0
179.6
183.2
34.4
37.7
39.2
40.5
42.6
16.0 124.2
16.2 126.4
16.1 126.7
16.0 123.1
16.3 124.3
74.8
76.1
75.8
73.3
73.5
43.6
42.5
43.5
44.8
44.4
31.2
33.5
32.3
28.4
29.2
49.4
5Q.3
50.9
49.8
50.8
9.1
8.6
8.6
9.0
8.8
40.5
41.7
42.3
40.9
42.0
24.8
24.4
24.3
24.5
25.0
10.8
11.2
11.3
10.1
9.8
1940.
1941
1942IIII
1943....
1944....
189.9
211.6
259.0
313.6
370.8
44.8
56.3
101.7
154.4
211.9
16.5
16.3
15.8
14.9
14.1
128.6
139.0
141.5
144.3
144.8
75.6
83.4
91.6
95.5
94.1
43.7
43.6
42.7
41.0
39.8
31.9
39.8
49.0
54.5
54.3
53.0
55.6
49.9
48.8
50.7
9.1
9.3
9.0
8.2
7.7
43.9
46.3
40.9
40.6
42.9
26.1
27.1
26.8
26.1
26.0
1945....
1946....
1947....
1948....
1949....
406.3
397.4
417.4
433.6
448.4
252.7
229.7
223.3
216.5
218.6
13.7
13.6
14.4
16.2
18.1
139.9 85.3
154.1 93.5
179.7 108.9
200.9 117.8
211.7 118.0
38.3
41.3
46.1
52.5
56.5
47.0
52.2
62.8
65.3
61.5
54.6
60.6
70.8
83.1
93.7
7.3
7.6
8.6
10.8
12.0
47.4
53.0
62.3
72.4
81.8
27.0
32.5
38.8
45.1
60.6
1950....
1951....
1952_...
1953.
1954.
490.3
524.0
555.2
586.5
612.0
218.7
218.6
222.9
228.1
230.2
20.7
23.3
25.8
28.6
33.4
250.9
282.2
306.5
329.8
348.4
142.1
162.5
171.0
179.5
182.8
60.1
66.6
73.3
78.3
82.9
81.9
95.9
97.7
101.2
100.0
108.8
119.7
135.5
150.3
165.6
12.3
13.6
15.2
16.9
17.6
96.6
106.2
120.4
133.6
147.9
59.4
67.4
75.2
83.8
94.6
18.4
20.8
21.4
22.6
27.4
31.4
32.5
1955....
1956.
1957....
1958....
1959....
672.3
707.5
738.9
782.6
846.2
231.5
225.4
224.4
232.7
243.2
38.4
42.7
46.7
50.9
55.6
402.5
439.4
467.8
499.1
547.4
212.1
231.7
246.7
259.5
283.3
90.0
100.1
112.1
121.2
129.3
122.2
131.7
134.6
138.4
154.0
190.4
207.7
221.1
239.5
264.1
18.8
19.5
20.3
23.3
23.0
171.6
188.2
200.8
216.2
241.1
108.7
121.3
131.6
144.6
160.8
24.0
24.4
24.3
26.5
28.7
38.9
42.5
44.8
45.1
51.5
1960
890.2
1961..-.
946.4
1 9 6 2 . . . . 1,018.7
1 9 6 3 . . . . 1,093. 5
1964 8... 1,163.6
241.0
248.1
255.9
261.2
267.0
60.0
65.0
73.7
79.5
85.7
589.2
633.3
689.0
752.8
810.9
302.8
323.0
347.4
374.6
395.3
139.1
149.4
161.4
174.9
186.8
163.6
173.6
186.0
199.6
208.5
286.4
310.3
341.6
378.2
415.6
25.1
27.5
30.2
33.2
36.8
261.4
282.8
311.4
345.0
378.8
174.5
190.4
210.6
234.2
257.6
30.8
34.8
37.6
40.9
44.5
56.0
57.7
63.2
69.9
76.7
9.1
4.8
3.6
3.5
3.9
4.9
6.1
6.7
6.3
7.2
9.5
8.3
10.0
9.2
6.0
4.9
5.1
8.1
9.5
11.8
14.7
12.1
11.9
12.9
13.9
15.8
16.2
17.8
5.7
8.4
11.6
14.4
17.3
» Net public and private debt outstanding is a comprehensive aggregate of the indebtedness of borrowers
after elimination of certain types of duplicating governmental and corporate debt. For a further explanation of the concept, see Survey of Current Business, October 1950.
2 Data for State and local government debt are for June 30.
» Farm mortgages and farm production loans. Farmers' financial and consumer debt is included in the
nonfarm categories.
< Financial debt is debt owed to banks for purchasing or carrying securities, customers' debt to brokers,
and
debt owed to life insurance companies by policyholders.
8
Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Revisions for 1929-39 and 1955-57 in the consumer credit data of the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System have not yet been fully incorporated into this series.
Sources: Department of Commerce (OflBce of Business Economics), Treasury Department, Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Federal Home Loan Bank Board (except as noted).
254
GOVERNMENT FINANCE
TABLE B-55.- -U.S. Government debt, by kind of obligation, 1929-64
[Billions of dollars]
Interest-bearing public debt
Gross
Marketable public
public
Nonmarketable public issues
issues
debt and
guarTreasury Investanteed
Short- Treasury United
States
tax and
issues»
term
ment
savings
savings bonds»
bonds
issues *
bonds
notes
End of year or month
16.3
16 0
17 8
20 8
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 —
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1963- Jan
_
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
__
- -
July
Aug
Sept
.
.
Oct
Nov
Dec
1964: Jan
Feb
.
Mar
Apr. .
May
June - July
Aug.__
Sept
Oct . _
Nov
Dec
.
_
24 o
31 5
35.1
39.1
41.9
44.4
47.6
50.9
64.3
112.5
170.1
232.1
278.7
259.5
257.0
252.9
257.2
256.7
259.5
267.4
275.2
278.8
280.8
276.7
275.0
283.0
290.9
290.4
296.5
304.0
310.1
318.7
303.9
305.2
303.5
303.7
305.8
306.5
305.5
307.2
307.3
307.1
308.9
310.1
309.3
311.1
310.4
308.4
312.3
312.5
312.0
314.9
316.5
316.5
319.3
318.7
3.3
2.9
2.8
5.9
7.5
11.1
14.2
12.5
12.5
9.8
7.7
7.5
8.0
27.0
47.1
69.9
78.2
57.1
47.7
45.9
50.2
58.3
65.6
68.7
77.3
76.0
81.3
79.5
82.1
92.2
103.5
109.2
120.5
124.6
121.2
115.5
125.4
123.7
123.7
124.2
124.0
121.5
121.5
122.8
117.8
118.9
120.1
121.2
119.9
122.2
121.2
120.4
119.5
118.0
109.7
110.6
111.9
113.1
115.4
115.5
11.3
11.3
13 5
13.4
14 7
15.4
14.3
19.5
20.5
24.0
26.9
28.0
33.4
49.3
67.9
91.6
120.4
119.3
117.9
111.4
104.8
94.0
76.9
79.8
77.2
81.8
81.9
80.8
82.1
83.4
84.8
79.8
75.5
78.4
86.4
97.0
78.6
81.1
79.8
80.1
80.1
82.0
81.9
80.5
86.5
86.4
86.4
86.4
88.7
87.0
87.0
87.0
88.5
88.5
97.1
97.1
97.1
97.0
97 0
97.0
0.2
.5
1.0
1.4
2.2
3.2
6.1
15.0
27.4
40.4
48.2
49.8
52.1
55.1
56.7
58.0
57.6
67.9
57.7
57.7
57.9
56.3
52.5
51.2
48.2
47.2
47.5
47.5
48.8
49.7
47.7
47.9
48.0
48.1
48.2
48.3
48.4
48.5
48.6
48.7
48.8
48.8
48.9
49.0
49.1
49.1
49.2
49.3
49.4
49.4
49.5
49.6
49.7
49.7
2.5
6.4
8.6
9.8
8.2
5.7
5.4
4.6
7.6
8.6
7.5
5.8
6.0
4.5
(v
C)
(*)
1((8'9))
((*))
((J)
(8)
ft
I
6(6)
()
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
13.0
13.4
12.9
12.7
12.3
11.6
10.3
9.0
7.6
6.2
5.1
4.4
3.7
3.4
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
Special
issues *
0.6
.8
.4
.4
.4
.6
.7
.6
2.2
3.2
4.2
5.4
7.0
9.0
12.7
16.3
20.0
24.6
29.0
31.7
33.9
33.7
35.9
39.2
41.2
42.6
43.9
45.6
45.8
44.8
43.5
44.3
43.5
43.4
43.7
46.1
42.2
42.5
42.2
41.6
43.6
44.8
43.7
45.5
44.7
43.3
43.6
43.7
41.9
42.9
43.2
42.0
45.0
46.6
45.7
47.4
47.4
46.3
46.7
46.1
1
Total includes non-interest-bearing debt, fully guaranteed securities (except those held by the Treasury), Postal Savings bonds, prewar bonds, adjusted service bonds, depositary bonds, armed forces leave
bonds, Rural Electrification Administration series bonds, foreign series certificates and notes, foreign
currency certificates and bonds, Treasury certificates, and U.S. retirement plan bonds, not shown separately.
Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation.
2
Bills, certificates of indebtedness, and notes.
8
Series A bonds and, beginning April 1951, series B convertible bonds.
4
Issued to U.S. Government investment accounts. These accounts also held $14.5 billion of public
marketable and nonmarketable issues on December 31,1964.
• Less than $50 million.
• The last series of Treasury savings notes matured in April 1956.
Source: Treasury Department.
255
TABLE B-56.—Estimated ownership of U.S. Government obligations, 1939-64
[Par values,1 billions of dollars]
Gross public debt and guaranteed issues *
Held
by U.S.
GovernTotal ment
investment
accounts
End of year or
month
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
-,950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
.
...
...
8
_•
1963: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
._
-.
Nov
Dec
1964: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
47.6
50.9
64 3
112.5
170 1
232.1
278.7
259 5
257.0
252.9
257.2
256.7
259. 5
267.4
275.2
278.8
280 8
276.7
275 0
283 0
290.9
290.4
296.5
304.0
310. 1
318.7
303.9
305.2
303.5
303.7
305.8
306.5
305.5
307.2
307.3
307.1
308.9
310.1
309.3
311.1
310.4
308.4
312.3
312.5
312.0
314.9
316.5
316.5
319.3
318.7
65
7.6
95
12.2
16 9
21 7
27.0
30 9
34 4
37.3
39.4
39.2
42.3
45 9
48 3
49.6
51.7
54.0
55 2
54 4
53.7
55.1
54 5
55.6
58.0
60.6
54.5
55.1
55.1
54.3
57.1
58.4
57.1
58.9
58.3
57.2
57.7
58.0
56.5
57.5
57.6
56.1
59.4
61.1
59.9
61.8
61.8
60.5
61.2
60.6
Held by "the public"
Mutual
Held
savings
by
banks Other State
Federal
MiscelCom- and
and Individ- laneous
in- corpora- local
Reserve Total mercial
surance
uals
•
banks
invesbanks * com- tions * governtors*
ments*
panies
2.5
2.2
2.3
6.2
11.6
18.8
24.3
23.3
22.6
23.3
18.9
20.8
23.8
24.7
25.9
24.9
24.8
24.9
24.2
26.3
26.6
27.4
28.9
30.8
33.6
37.0
30.3
30.6
31.0
31.2
31.3
32.0
32.5
32.4
32.6
32.8
33.7
33.6
32.8
33.2
33.8
33.2
34.2
34.8
35.1
35.2
35.4
35.7
36.8
37.0
38.6
41.1
52.5
94.0
141.6
191.6
227.4
205.2
200.1
192.2
198.9
196.8
193.4
196.9
201.0
204.2
204.3
197.8
195.5
202.2
210.6
207.9
213.1
217.6
218.5
221.1
219.1
219.5
217.4
218.2
217.4
216.1
215.9
215.9
216.4
217.2
217.5
218.5
220.0
220 5
219.0
219.1
218.8
216.6
217.0
218.0
219.3
220.2
221.4
221.1
15.9
17.3
21.4
41.1
59.9
77.7
90.8
74.5
68.7
62.5
66.8
61.8
61.6
63.4
63.7
69.2
62.0
59.5
59.5
67.5
60.3
62.1
67.2
67.2
64.3
63.5
66.7
65.8
64.7
65.1
63.9
64.4
63.3
61.7
63.0
63.2
62.8
64.3
62.9
62.2
61.6
61.1
60.0
60.2
59.3
60.0
61.8
62.1
63.4
63.5
9.4
10.1
11.9
15.8
21.2
28.0
34.7
36.7
35.9
32.7
31.5
29.6
26.3
25.5
25.1
24.1
23.1
21.3
20 2
19.9
19.5
18.1
17.5
17.6
17.1
16.8
17.7
17.6
17.6
17.4
17.2
17.1
17 3
17.2
17 2
17.1
17.1
17.1
17.2
17 2
17.2
17.1
17.0
16.9
16.9
17.1
17.2
17.0
16.9
16.8
2.2
2.0
4.0
10.1
16.4
21.4
22.2
15.3
14.1
14.8
16.8
19.7
20.7
19.9
21.5
19.2
23.5
19.1
18.6
18.8
22.8
20.1
20.0
20.2
20.6
19.7
21.1
21.7
20.8
21.1
22.4
20.3
20.6
21.4
19.7
20.4
21.6
20.6
21.8
22.7
21.4
21.8
22.5
20.2
20.5
20.5
19.1
20.2
20.1
19.7
0.4
.5
.7
1.0
2.1
4.3
6.5
6.3
7.3
7.9
8.1
8.8
9.6
11.1
12.7
14.4
15.4
16.3
16.6
16.5
18.0
18.7
19.0
20.1
21.1
22.2
20.4
20.4
20.6
21.2
21.2
21.5
21.4
21.6
21.2
20.9
20.6
21.1
21.2
21.4
21.7
22.6
22.6
22.5
22.3
22.6
22.3
22.2
21.9
22.2
10.1
10.6
13.6
23.7
37.6
53.3
64.1
64.2
65.7
65. 5
66.3
66.3
64.6
65.2
64.8
63.4
64.7
65.5
64.0
63.0
68.0
64.7
64.4
64.5
66.2
68.0
64.9
65.1
65.7
64.9
64.4
64.4
65.2
65.4
65.8
66.0
66.2
66.2
66.9
67.3
67.9
67.1
67.4
67.5
67.8
67.5
68.0
68.2
67.9
68.0
0.7
.7
9
2.3
44
7.0
9.1
81
84
8.9
9.4
10.5
10.6
11.7
13.2
13.9
15 6
16.1
16 6
16 6
22.1
24.2
25.0
28 0
29.2
31.1
28.2
29.0
28.1
28.6
28.3
28.3
28.3
28.7
29.5
29.5
29.3
29.2
30.1
29 6
29.1
29.6
29.2
29.3
30.2
30.2
30.9
30.6
31.1
31.1
Sept
Oct.
Nov
Dec «
1
United States savings bonds, series A-F and J, are included at current redemption value.
2 Excludes guaranteed securities held by the Treasury. Not all of total shown is subject to statutory
debt
limitation.
8
Includes commercial banks, trust companies, and stock savings banks in the United States and Territories and island possessions;figuresexclude securities held in trust departments. Since the estimates in this
table are on the basis of par values and include holdings of banks in United States Territories and possessions,
they do not agree with the estimates in Table B-48, which are based on book values and relate only to banks
within the United States.
* Exclusive of banks and insurance companies.
* Includes trust, sinking, and investment funds of State and local governments and their agencies, and
of Territories and possessions.
«Includes partnerships and personal trust accounts.
* Includes savings and loan associations, nonprofit institutions, corporate pension trust funds, dealers
and brokers, and investments of foreign balances and international accounts in this country. Beginning
with December 1946. the international accounts include investments by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the International Monetary Fund, the International Development Association, the Inter-American Development Bank, and various U.N. funds, in special non-interest-bearing notes
and bonds issued by the U.S. Government. Beginning with June 30, 1947, includes holdings of Federal
land banks.
» Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
Source: Treasury Department (except as noted).
256
T A B L E B-57.—Average length and maturity distribution of marketable interest-bearing
public debt, 1946-64
Maturity class
End of year or month
Amount
outstanding Within
lyear
1 to 5
years
years Average length
5 to 10 10 to 20 20and
years
years
over
Millions of dollars
Fiscal year:
1946
1947
1948
1949
Years Months
189,606
168,702
160,346
155,147
61,974 24,763
51,211 21,851
48,742 21,630
48,130 32,562
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
155,310
137,917
140,407
147,335
150,354
42,338
43,908
46,367
65,270
62,734
51,292
46,526
47,814
36,161
29,866
7,792 28,035
8,707 29,979
13,933 25,700
15,651 28,662
27,515 28,634
25,853
8,797
6,594
1,592
1,606
2
7
8
4
6
1955....
1956....
1957....
1958....
1959....
155,206
154,953
155,705
166,675
178,027
49,703 39,107
58,714 34.401
71,952 40,669
67,782 42,557
72,958 58,304
34,253 28,613
28,908 28,578
12,328 26,407
21,476 27,652
17,052 21,625
4,351
4,349
7,208
8,088
10
4
9
3
7
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963.
1964.
183,845
187,148
196,072
203.508
206,489
70,467 72,844 20,246
81,120 58,400 26,435
88,442 57,041 26,049
85.294 58.026 37.385
81,424 65,453 34,929
12,630
10,233
9,319
8.360
8,355
7,658
10,960
15,221
14. 444
16,328
11
1
0
1963: J a n . . .
Feb.-.
Mar..
Apr...
May..
June..
41,807
35,562
32,264
16,746
17,461 43,599
18,597 41,481
16,229 41,481
22,821 34,888
203,959 87.978
204,751 88,951
203,472 81,647
204,323 82,469
204,101 87, 797
203,508 85,294
61,657
59.003
61.328
61.079
58,007
58,026
33,975
36, 458
37.962
37,952
35,485
37,385
4,566
4,566
6,770
6,770
6.769
8,360
15,782
15,774
15,764
16,054
16,043
14,444
10
10
1
1
1
1
July..
Aug...
Sept..
Oct.NovDec.
203,491
203,233
204,282
205,347
206, 551
207, 571
85.286
85,976
83,070
84, 556
88.385
89,403
58,035
60.856
58.085
57,678
56,660
58,487
37.376
33. 622
39.100
39,097
37,500
35,682
8,359
8.359
8,358
8.358
8.358
8,357
14,435
14, 420
15, 669
15, 658
15,648
15,642
0
0
3
2
2
1
1964: J a n . .
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May.
June.
209, 218
208,223
207, 356
208,009
206, 489
88, 445
85, 046
84, 044
82, 554
82, 930
81, 424
57,509
63,392
63,413
64,057
62,825
65, 453
37,900
36,053
36,047
36,041
37, 561
34,929
8,357
8,357
8,356
8,355
8,355
8,355
16,378
16,372
16,363
16, 350
16,339
16,328
1
1
1
0
1
0
July..
.Aug..
Sept.
Oct._
Nov..
Dec.
206, 776
207, 692
208, 981
210,118
212,414
212,454
77, 231
81, 389
82, 689
84,135
88,443
88,451
60, 672
57, 443
57,452
63, 422
61,427
64,007
43, 010
43, 002
42,995
36, 725
38,963
36,421
8,354
8,354
8,353
8,353
6,108
6,108
17,508
17, 505
17, 491
17, 483
17,473
17,467
4
4
3
2
1
0
NOTE.—All issues classified to final maturity except partially tax-exempt bonds, which are classified to
earliest call date.
Source: Treasury Department.
257
TABLE B—58.—Federal administrative budget receipts by source and expenditures by function,
fiscal years 1939-66 *
[Millions of dollars]
Budget receipts (net)
Fiscal
year
Budget expenditures
MisIndi- CorpoEm- Estate
cella- Intervidual rate Excise
ploy- and Cus- neous
fund
Total income
ment
gift
toms
transincome taxes
re- actions
taxes taxes (net) taxes taxes
ceipts
Total
InternaNa- tional
tional affairs
defense and 2
finance
4,979
1,018
1,144
1,891
100
357
302
184
-17
8,841
1,075
20
1940._.. 5,137
1941..._
7,096
1 9 4 2 . . . . 12,547
1 9 4 3 . . . . 21,947
1 9 4 4 . . . . 43,563
964
1,403
3,251
6,616
18,174
1,129
2,037
4,731
9,651
14,742
2,010
2,559
3,416
4,118
4,824
104
99
118
155
181
353
403
420
441
507
331
365
369
308
417
253
237
251
697
4,791
-7
-7
-9
-39
-73
9,055
13,255
34,037
79,368
94,986
1,498
6,054
23,970
63,216
76,757
51
145
1,839
3,299
3,642
1945....
1946....
1947.._
1948-.-1949_._.
44,362
39,650
39, 677
41,375
37,663
18,265
16,157
17,835
19,305
15, 548
15,984
11,833
8,569
9,678
11,195
6,275
6,999
7,207
7,356
7,502
182
176
183
206
235
637
668
771
890
780
341
424
477
403
367
2,791
3,515
4,744
3,650
2,069
-113
-122
-109
-113
-33
98,303
60,326
38,923
32,955
39,474
81,277
43, 226
14,398
11,779
12,926
3,312
3,107
6,536
4,566
6,052
1950.-.1951
1952
1953
1954....
36,422
47,480
61,287
64,671
64,420
15,745
21,643
27,913
30,108
29,542
10,448
14,106
21,225
21,238
21,101
7,549
8,648
8,851
9,868
9,945
225
234
256
274
283
698
708
818
881
934
407
609
533
596
542
1,422
1,620
1,794
1.859
2,309
-73
-88
-104
-154
-235
39,544
43,970
65,303
74,120
67,537
13,018
22,471
44,037
50,442
46,986
4,674
3,736
2,826
2,216
1,732
1955-...
1956-.._
1957.--1958-.-1959---.
60,209
67,850
70,562
68,550
67,915
28,747
32,188
35,620
34,724
36,719
17,861
20,880
21,167
20,074
17,309
9,131
9,929
9,055
8,612
8,504
579
322
328
333
321
924
1,161
1,365
1,393
1,333
585
682
735
782
925
2,562
3,003
2,760
3,200
3,160
-181
-315
-467
-567
-355
64,389
66,224
68,966
71,369
80,342
40,695
40,723
43,368
44,234
46,483
2,310
2,467
3,311
3,305
4,802
1960.--.
1961
1962-._1963---_
1964-..-
77,763
77,659
81,409
86,376
89,459
40,715
41,338
45,571
47,588
48,697
21,494 9,137
20,954 9,063
20,523 9,585
21,579 9,915
23,493 10,211
339
(«)
1,606
1,896
2,016
2,167
2,394
1,105
982
L, 142
1,205
1,252
4,062
4,080
3,206
4,435
4,076
-694
-654
-633
-513
-664
76,539
81,515
87,787
92,642
97,684
45,691
47,494
51,103
52,755
54,181
3,064
3,954
4,301
4,151
3,687
1965 6 . 91,200
1966 6 . 94,400
47,000
48,200
25, 600 10,733
27, 600 9,750
2,800
3,200
L,415
1,520
4,485
4,730
-833
-600
97,481
99,687
52,160
51,578
4,043
3,984
1939-..
See footnotes at end of table.
258
TABLE B—58.—Federal administrative budget receipts by source and expenditures by
function, fiscal years 1939-66—Continued 1
[Millions of dollars]
Budget expenditures—Continued
Space
Fiscal
year
Com-
Agri-
merce
culture
reand Natural and
search
retransand
agritech- culture sources portanology
tion
resources 2
HousVetering
ans
and Health,
beneEducom- labor
Infits
cation
munand
terest
and
ity welfare
services
development
General
government
Allowances
for
contingenciess
Interfund
transfers*
1939...
2
1,199
360
662
-148
3,866
41
560
950
335
-80
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944...
3
8
12
23
30
1,538
1,314
1,482
610
1,215
471
452
533
501
402
454
577
2,600
7,211
7,725
35
129
215
309
316
3,000
2,536
1,926
1,132
881
41
43
47
47
94
552
566
558
606
745
1,056
1,123
1,272
1,825
2,623
370
409
515
825
989
-14
-101
-933
-236
-433
1945
1946...
1947
1948
1949
38
32
35
38
49
1,607
747
1,243
575
2,512
319
342
548
743
1,057
4,143
886
655
,218
,618
-185
-193
356
94
295
864
865
1,148
1,213
1,433
154
79
62
68
67
2,095
4,415
7,381
6,653
6,725
3,662
4,816
5,012
5,248
5,445
880
1,047
1,353
1,263
1,054
139
955
196
-501
239
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
54
62
67
79
90
2,795
676
1,068
2,955
2,573
1,206
1,275
1,367
1,478
1,317
,759
,625
,888
,926
,219
268
531
593
396
-628
1,790
1,863
1,916
2,052
2,122
78
103
191
320
326
6,646
5,400
4,933
4,368
4,341
5,817
5,714
5,934
6,583
6,470
1,170
1,307
1,445
1,461
1,226
267
-793
-961
-154
-235
74
71
76
89
145
4,259
4,254
3,208
3,346
5,568
1,203
1,105
1,298
1,544
1,670
,225
,892
,305
,632
2,025
136
-10
-118
30
970
2,165
2,462
2,632
3,059
3,877
377
343
437
541
732
4,522
4,810
4,870
5,184
5,287
6,438
6,846
7,307
7,689
7,671
1,166
1,576
1,738
1,284
1,466
-181
-315
-467
-567
-355
401
744
1,257
9 552
4,171
3,650
3,717
4,397
5,390
5,560
1,714
2,006
2,147
2,352
2,478
L.963
2,573
2,774
2,843
3,002
122
320
349
-67
-80
3,690
4,244
4,538
4,789
5,475
866
943
1,076
1,244
1,339
5,266 9,266
5,414 9,050
5,403 9,198
5,186 9,980
5,492 10,765
1,542
1,709
1,875
1,979
2,280
-694
-654
-633
-513
-664
1965 •____ 4,900
1966 6 . . . 5,100
4,477
3,944
2,735
2,691
},372
2,804
-280
10
6,208
8,328
1,509
2,663
5,383 11,286
4,623 11,594
2,417
2,462
1955
1956
1957...
1958
1959....
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
103
507
-833
-600
1
For surplus or deficit on Federal administrative budget receipts and expenditures, see Table B-59.
2
Beginning 1954 includes the expenditures for Food for Peace, previously classified under Agriculture
and
Agricultural Resources.
3
Includes allowance of $3 million in 1965 and $107 million in 1966 for Appalachia.
4
Includes adjustment to Daily Treasury Statement prior to 1953.
s6 Less than $500,000.
Estimate.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
259
TABLE B-59.—Federal administrative budget receipts and expenditures and the public debt, 1929-66
[Millions of dollars]
Net
budget
receipts'
Fiscal or calendar year
Fiscal year:
1929.—...
Budget
expenditures
Surplus
or
deficit ( - )
Public debt
at end of
year*
3,861
3,127
734
16,931
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
4,058
3,116
1,924
1,997
3,015
3,320
3,677
4,659
4,598
6,645
738
-462
-2,735
-2,602
-3,630
16,186
16,801
19,487
22.639
27,734
1935
1937
1938
1939
3,706
3,997
4,956
6,588
4,979
6,497
8,422
7,733
6,765
8,841
-2,791
-4,425
-2,777
-1,177
-3,862
32,824
38, 497
41,089
42,018
45,890
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
5,137
7,096
12,547
21,947
43,563
9,055
13,255
34,037
79,368
94,986
-3,918
-6,159
-21,490
-57,420
-51,423
48,497
55,332
76,991
140, 796
202,626
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
44,362
39,650
39,677
41,375
37,663
32,955
39,474
-53,941
-20,676
754
8,419
-1,811
259,115
269,898
258,376
252,366
252, 798
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
36,422
47,480
61,287
64,671
64,420
39,544
43,970
65,303
74,120
67,637
-3,122
3,510
-4,017
-9,449
-3,117
257,377
255,251
259.151
266,123
271,341
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
60,209
67,850
70,562
68,550
67,915
64.389
66,224
68,966
71,369
80,342
-4,180
1,626
1.596
-2,819
-12,427
274,418
272,825
270. 634
276,444
284,817
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
77,763
77,659
81.409
86.376
89,459
76,639
81.515
87.787
92,642
97,684
1,224
-3,856
-6,378
—6.266
-8,226
286,471
289, 211
298,645
306,466
312, 526
61,200
94,400
97,481
99,687
-6,281
-5,287
316,900
322,500
40,800
37.464
35.559
41,056
5,241
-3,592
252.854
257,160
37,235
52.877
64.705
63, 654
37.657
56. 236
70,547
72.811
64,622
-422
-3,358
-5,842
-9,157
-3,683
256, 731
259.461
267, 445
275, 244
278. 784
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
63,119
70,616
71, 749
68.262
72.738
65,891
66.838
71,157
75.349
79,778
-2,771
3,779
592
-7,088
-7,040
280,822
276, 731
275,002
283,031
290,925
1960
1961
1962..
1963
1964*
79,518
78,157
84,709
87.516
77.565
84.463
91.907
94.188
96,945
1,953
—6,306
-7,190
-6.672
-8,248
290,373
296,499
303,988
310,089
318, 750
1936
1965«
1966 ».
Calendar year:
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952.
1953
1954
-
60,3(26
1 Gross receipts less refunds of receipts and transfers of tax receipts to the old-age and survivors insurance
trust fund, the disability insurance trust fund, the railroad retirement account, the unemployment trust
fund, and the highway trust fund.
*
2
Includes guaranteed issues. The change in the public debt from year to year reflects not only the budget
surplus or deficit but also changes in the Government's cash on hand, and the use of corporate debt and
investment transactions by certain Government enterprises.
* Estimate.
«Preliminary.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
260
TABLE B-60.—Government cash receipts from and payments to the public, 7946-66
[Billions of dollars]
Federal i
Total
State and local >
•
Cash
receipts
Cash
payments
Excess
of receipts
or of
payments
Cash
receipts
Cash
payments
Excess
of receipts
or of
payments
54.2
55.6
59.6
57.6
70.2
—16.0
47.5
50.2
56.3
43.5
8.1
43.5
45.4
41.6
61.7
36.9
36.5
40.6
—18.2
6.6
8.9
1.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
58.2
72.5
88.7
93.9
95.6
61.5
65.2
88.9
99.1
96.1
-3.3
7.3
40.9
53.4
68.0
71.5
71.6
43.1
45.8
68.0
76.8
71.9
-2.2
7.6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
93.5
105.8
113.5
115.0
117.0
97.5
101.5
111.8
118.3
132.3
-4.0
4.2
1.7
70.5
72.5
80.0
83.5
94.8
-2.7
-3.3
-15.3
67.8
77.1
82.1
81.9
81.7
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
134.5
139.4
147.2
159.0
168.6
132.9
141.5
152.8
161.1
170.8
1.6
-2.1
-5.6
-2.0
-2.2
95.1
97.2
101.9
109.7
115.5
Fiscal or calendar year
Fiscal year:
1946
1947
1948
1949
-
9.4
1.3
—.2
-5.2
-.4
1965 <
1966«
Calendar year:
1946
Cash
receipts
10.7
12.1
14.2
16.0
17.3
19.1
Cash
Payments
85
10.6
13.7
15.7
Excess
of receipts
or of
Payments
2 2
1 6
.5
•3
20.7
22.4
24.0
18.4
19 4
20 9
22.3
24.2
-1.1
—3
—.2
.1
-.2
27.0
29 0
31.8
34.8
37.6
-1.3
—3
-1.6
13.1
25.7
28.7
31.4
33.1
35.3
94.3
99.5
107.7
113.8
120. 3
.8
-2.3
-5.8
-4.0
-4.8
39.4
42.2
45.3
49.3
53.2
38.6
42 0
45.1
47.3
50.7
117.4
123.5
121.4
127.4
-4 0
-3.9
-5.3
.2
4.5
2.1
—.4
-1.7
-2.2
.8
2
.2
2.0
2.5
52.9
57.4
60.0
57.9
50.9
50.7
51.8
59.8
2.0
6.7
8.2
-1.8
41.4
44.3
44.9
41.3
41.4
38.6
36.9
42.6
.1
6.7
8.0
—1.3
11.4
13.1
15.1
16.6
12.1
14.9
17.1
9.6
1.9
1.0
.2
—.5
60.4
79.1
93.0
93.5
93.3
61.1
78.3
93.6
100.4
95.3
—.6
.9
-.6
-6.9
42.4
59.3
71.3
70 2
68.6
42.0
58.0
72.0
77.4
69.7
.5
1.2
.6
-7.2
-1.1
18.0
19.9
21.7
23.2
24.7
19.1
20.2
21.6
23 0
25.6
—1.1
-.4
.1
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
98.4
110.2
116.8
115.9
124.6
100.2
105.2
116.7
125.1
133.1
5.1
.1
-9.3
-8.5
71.4
80.3
84.5
81.7
87.6
72.2
74.7
83.4
89 0
95.6
—.7
5.6
1.1
-7.2
-8.0
26.9
29.9
32.3
34.1
37.1
28.0
30.4
33 3
36.2
37.5
—1.1
-.5
—1.0
-2.1
-.5
1960
.
1961
1962
1963. - . .
1964«
139.3
142.0
154.2
163.9
170.2
135.4
148.7
157.7
166.1
173.6
3.9
-6.7
-3.6
-2.2
-3.3
98.3
97.9
106.2
112.6
115.0
94.7
104.7
111.9
117.2
120.9
3.6
-6.8
—5.7
-4.6
-5.8
41.1
44.0
48.0
51.3
55.2
40.7
44.0
45 9
49.0
52.7
.3
.1
2.1
2.4
2.5
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
-
—
-.
-
-2.0
-1.8
.3
—£
i For derivation of Federal cash receipts and payments, see Budget of the United States Government for the
Fiscal Year ending June SO, 1966, and Table B-63.
* Estimated by Council of Economic Advisers from receipts and expenditures in the national income
accounts. C&sh receipt? consist of personal tax and nontax receipts, indirect business tax and nontax
accruals, and corporate
tax accruals adjusted to a collection basis. Cash payments are total expenditures
less Federal grantc-in-aid and less contributions for social insurance. (Federal grants-in-aid are therefore
excluded from State and local receipts and payments and included only in Federal payments.) See
Table B-61.
« Surplus of $49 million.
<8 Estimate.
Preliminary.
Sources: Treasury Department, Bureau of the Budget, Department of Commerce (Office of Business
Economics), and Council of Economic Advisers.
261
T A B L E B-61.—Government receipts and expenditures in the national income accountsy
1929-64
[Billions of dollars]
Calendar year or quarter
Receipts
Surplus or
deficit
(-)on
ExRependi- income ceipts
and
tures
product account
Surplus or
deficit
(-)on
ExRependi- income ceipts
tures
and
product account
3.8
2.6
3.0
2.0
J.7
2.7
3.5
2.8
4.2
3.2
4.0
6.4
4.0
5.0
7.0
6.5
6.7
6.5
8.5
7.2
8.5
9.0
1.2
.3
-2.1
-1.5
-1.3
-2.9
-2.6
-3.5
-.2
-2.0
-2.2
8.6
15 4
22 9
39.3
41.0
10.1
20.5
56.1
86.0
95.6
42.5
39.2
43.3
43.4
39.1
-3.9
-7.1
-6.7
98.6
104.3
115.3
126 6
131.6
136.7
149 8
159.8
168.0
176.2
1929..
11.3
10.2
1930—
1931 —
193219331934..
10.8
9.5
8.9
9.3
10.5
11.0
12.3
10.6
10.7
12.8
1935—
1936...
1937...
1938...
1939-
11.4
12.9
15.4
15.0
15.4
13.3
15.9
14.8
16.6
17.5
19401941...
194219431944-
17.7
25.0
32.6
49.2
51.2
18.5
28.8
64 0
93.4
103.1
194519461947—
1948...
1949-
53.2
51.1
57.1
59.2
56.4
92.9
47.0
43.8
51.0
59.5
19501951...
1952—
19531954...
85.5
90.6
94.9
90.0
61.1
79.4
94.4
102.0
96.7
19551956..
1957..
19581959..
101.4
109.5
116.3
115.1
130.2
I960—
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964 3.
140.6
145.6
157.8
168.9
173.3
State and local
government
Federal Government»
Total government
Surplus or
deficit
(-)on
Expendi- income
and
tures
product account
7.6
7.7
-0.1
7.8
7.7
7.3
7.2
8.6
8.4
8.4
7.6
7.2
8.1
-.5
-.7
-.2
9.1
8.6
9.1
9.3
8.5
8.1
8.4
8.9
9.6
.6
.5
.7
.4
.1
-1.4
-5.1
-33. 2
-46.7
-54.6
10 0
10 4
10 6
10.9
11.1
9.2
9.0
8.8
8.4
8.4
.7
1.3
1.8
2.5
2.7
84.8
37 0
31.1
35.4
41.6
-42.3
2.2
12.2
8.0
-2.5
11.6
13 0
15.5
17.8
19.6
9.0
11.1
14.4
17.6
20.2
2.6
1.9
1.1
.3
-.6
50.2
64.5
67.7
70.3
63.8
41.0
58 0
71 6
77.7
9.2
64
-3.9
-7.4
-5.8
21.4
23.5
25.5
27.4
29.1
22 4
23 8
25.4
27.1
30.1
-1.0
-.3
.1
.3
-.9
2.9
5.2
1.0
-11.4
-1.5
72.8
77.5
81.7
78.5
90.3
71.8
79.7
87 9
91.4
3.8
5.7
2.0
-9.4
-1.1
31.7
35.2
38.6
42 0
46.6
32.7
35.7
39.6
44.1
47.0
-1.0
-.5
-1.0
-2.1
-.3
3.9
-4.2
-1.9
.9
-2.9
96.6
98.3
106.4
113.6
113.9
m i
102.6
110.4
115.2
119.2
3.5
-4.3
-4.1
-1.5
-5.3
50.4
54.5
59.5
64.4
69.7
50. 0
54.4
57.3
62.0
67.3
.4
.1
2.1
2.4
2.4
1.0
-.3
-2.8
-1.7
-1.4
-2.4
-2.0
-3.0
.6
-1.6
-2.1
-.7
-3.8
-31.4
-44.2
-51.9
-39.7
4.1
13.3
8.2
-3.1
8.2
6.1
(8)
.5
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I-..
II...
III..
IV..
154.3
157.1
158.9
161.1
157.4
158.9
159.3
163.4
-3.1
-1.8
-.4
-2.2
104.1
106.0
107.0
108.3
108.4
110.6
109.9
112.8
-4.4
-4.6
-2.9
-4.5
58.0
59.1
59.8
61.1
56.7
56.2
57.4
58.9
1.2
2.8
2.5
2.3
1963: I....
II._
III..
IV..
164.3
167.5
169.7
174.0
167.1
165.9
168 0
170.7
-2.8
1.6
1.7
3.3
110.5
112.9
114.2
117.2
115.3
113.9
114.9
116.6
-4.8
-1.0
-.7
.6
62.3
63.4
64.9
66.7
60.3
60.8
62.4
64.0
2.0
2.6
2.4
2.7
1964: I-...
II-.
III-.
IV 3
172.7
171.1
173.9
172.7
176.6
176.9
178.5
(<)
-5.5
-3.0
(5)
114.8
112.3
114.0
(5)
117.2
120.2
119.2
120.3
-2.4
-7.8
- 55 . 2
()
67.8
69.2
70.6
(5)
65.3
66.9
68.3
68.8
2.4
2.3
2.3
* See Note, Table B-62.
a Deficit of $35 million.
3 Preliminary estimates.
* Less than $50 million.
5 Not available.
NOTE.—Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments are reflected in Federal expenditures and
State and local receipts and expenditures. Total government receipts and expenditures have been adjusted
to eliminate this duplication.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
262
TABLE B-62.—Federal Government receipts and expenditures in the national income accounts
1946-66
[Billions of dollars]
Receipts
Personal Corpotax rate
and profits
Year or quarter Total nontax tax
re- acceipts cruals
Fiscal year:
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
.1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965 K.
1966 2..
Calendar quarter
1962: I
II
III
IV
1963: I
II
III
IV
1964: I
II
III
IV 3
Indirect
business
tax
and
nontax
accruals
ConPurtribuchases
tions
of
for Total goods
social
and
To Forinsurserv- per- eign
ices
(net)
37.3
42.9
43.7
40.1
42.0
61.7
65.5
69.9
65.9
67.0
76.3
80.9
77.8
85.9
94.5
95.4
104.3
109.6
114.7
116.0
121.0
16.9
18.8
20.0
16.3
16.5
23.5
29.0
31.5
30.4
29.9
33.5
36.7
36.3
38.7
42.3
44.2
47.7
50.1
51.4
50.3
52.2
7.4
7.9
8.0
8.1
11.7
8.3
21.8
9.6
19.3
9.9
19.8 11.0
17.1 10.7
18.4 10.4
21.0 11.2
20.4 12.1
17.3 12.0
21. 1 12.3
21.7 13.9
19.7 13.6
21.9 14.9
22.1 15.2
23.5 16.0
23.9 16.8
24.7 16.1
39 2
43.3
43 4
39.1
50.2
64.5
67 7
70.3
63.8
72.8
77.5
81.7
78.5
90.3
96.6
98.3
106.4
113.6
113.9
17.2
19.6
19.0
16.2
18.2
26.3
31.2
32.4
29.2
31.5
35.2
37.3
36 6
40.4
44.0
45.1
49.1
51.9
49.0
8.6
10.7
11.8
9.8
17.1
21.6
18.6
19.4
16.5
20.9
20.2
19.9
17.7
22.0
21.0
20.9
21.8
23.0
24.0
7.9
7.9
8.1
8.2
9.0
9.5
10.5
11.2
10.1
11.0
11.6
12.2
11.9
13.0
14.0
14.1
15.1
15.6
16.4
17.6
18.2
20.5
23.0
24.5
104.1
106.0
107.0
108.3
110.5
112.9
114.2
117.2
114.8
112.3
114.0
47.5
48.9
49.6
50.2
50.7
51.5
52.2
53.4
51.2
47.3
48.2
49.3
21.4
21.6
21.7
22.3
22.0
23.0
23.0
24.4
23.9
24.4
24.4
15.0
15.1
15.0
15.1
15.4
15.5
15.7
15.9
15.9
16.4
16.6
16.7
20.2
20.4
20.6
20.7
22.5
22.9
23.2
23.5
23.9
24.2
24.7
25.0
Calendar year:
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961-..
1962...
1963...
1964 3..
Expenditures
Transfer
payments
7.2
10.7
11.2
10.9
Grantsin-aid
to State
and
local
governments
Net
interest
paid
SurSubsi- plus
or
dies defiless cit
current (-)
on
sur- inplus come
of and
gov- prodern- uct
ment acenter- count
prises
5.8
5.5
4.6
4.8
5.5
6.6
7.3
7.6
7.7
8.3
10.5
11.7
12.3
13.8
16.7
18.0
19.7
22.1
23.8
25.0
28.0
56.6
31.7
32.3
40.0
42.2
45.3
66.6
76.2
74.5
68.1
69.5
76.5
82.8
90.3
92.1
97.8
106.2
112.3
118.5
121.0
127.0
41.4
16.9
16.6
21.8
20.0
26.5
47.7
56.8
53.9
45.0
45.2
48.3
50.5
63.9
53.0
54.9
60.0
63.6
66.1
65.9
66.7
8.7
.6
2.9
8.1
11.3
3.1
8.2
2.3
8.7
.8
9.4
.7
10.6
.3
12.2
.6
12.9
.3
14.6
.5
18.1
.3
20.4
.4
21.3
.6
24.3
.6
26.2
.6
27.6
.6
28.8
.6
31.8
35.2
0.9
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.6
4.5
6.0
6.7
6.8
7.6
8.3
9.8
10.7
13.0
5.5
5.1
4.5
4.9
5.9
7.1
7.4
7.4
8.1
37.0
31.1
35.4
41.6
41.0
58.0
71.6
77.7
69.6
68.9
71.8
79.7
87 9
91.4
93.1
102.6
110.4
115.2
119.2
20.6
15.6
19.3
22.2
19.3
38.8
52.9
58 0
47.5
45.3
45.7
49.7
52.6
53.6
53.1
57.4
62.9
64.7
65.6
9.2
8.9
7.7
8.8
10.9
8.7
8.9
9.7
11.6
12.5
13.5
16.0
20.0
20.6
22.2
25.8
26.7
28.3
29.3
1.1
1.7
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.3
4.1
5.4
6.7
6.3
7.2
8.0
9.1
10.4
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.8
5.0
4.9
5.2
5.7
5.6
6.4
7.1
6.7
7.1
7.7
8.4
1.6
.6
.6
.7
1.2
1.3
1.0
.8
1.2
1.6
2.7
2.8
3.0
2.5
2.8
3.9
4.2
3.8
3.8
7.8
8.0
7.9
8.3
8.5
8.7
9.4
9.9
9.8
6.8
7.0
7.3
7.4
7.6
7.5
7.8
7.9
8.3
8.4
8.4
8.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.7
3.6
3.9
4.0
9.3
10.6
12.2
12.4
14.9
.3
.1
1.6
3.2
2.8
2.1
1.5
.6
.4
.5
.5
.5
.3
.5
.8
3.9
L2
L2
4.3
L4
L6
L8
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.6
5.6
5.8
6.9
6.9
6.8
7.4
8.1
8.5
2.3
.7
.4
.8
1.0
1.3
1.1
.9
1.0
1.4
1.9
3.1
2.7
2.7
2.7
3.3
4.0
3.8
4.1
4.1
3.5
-19.3
11.2
11.4
.2
-.2
16.3
-1.1
-6.3
-8.6
-1.1
6.8
4.4
-4.9
-4.4
2.4
-2.4
-1.9
-2.8
-3.9
-5.0
-6.0
2.2
12.2
8.0
-2.5
9.2
6.4
-3.9
-7.4
-5.8
3.8
5.7
2.0
-9.4
-1.1
3.5
-4.3
-4.1
-1.5
-5.3
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
0)
i Not available.
0)
a
108.4
110.6
109.9
112.8
115.3
113.9
114.9
116.6
117.2
120.2
119.2
120.3
Estimate.
61.4
63.6
62.4
63.8
65.1
64.3
64.4
64.9
64.3
67.1
65.5
65.7
26.3
26.3
26.6
27.6
28.6
27.9
28.0
28.6
29.5
29.1
29.1
29.4
.8
.5
.5
.6
L.5
.6
L.6
.7
.5
.6
.7
.2
3
10.4
10.6
10.7
-4.4
-4.6
-2.9
-4.5
-4.8
-1.0
-.7
.6
-2.4
-7.8
-5.2
0)
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—These accounts, like the cash budget, include the transactions of the trust accounts. Unlike
both the administrative budget and the cash statement, they exclude certain capital and lending transactions. In general, they do not use the cash basis for transactions with business. Instead, corporate
profits taxes are included in receipts on an accrual instead of a cash basis; expenditures are timed with the
delivery instead of the payment for goods and services; and CCC guaranteed price-support crop loan s
financed by banks are counted as expenditures when the loans are made, not when CCC redeems them.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Office of Business Economics) and Bureau of the Budget.
263
TABLE B—63.—Reconciliation of Federal Government receipts and expenditures in the administrative budget and the consolidated cash statement with receipts and expenditures in the national income
accounts,fiscalyears 1962-66
{Billions of dollars!
Fiscal years
Receipts or expenditures
1962
1963
1964
1965 i
1966
RECEIPTS
Administrative Budget receipts_
Plus:
81.4
Intragovernmental transactions
Receipts from exercise of monetary authority
Trust fund receipts
_
Equals: Federal receipts from the public (consolidated cash
receipts)
Adjustments for agency coverage:
Less:
District of Columbia revenues.. _
Adjustments for netting and consolidation:
Less:
Interest, dividends, and other earnings
Plus:
Contributions to Federal employees' retirement
funds, etc
—
--Adjustments for timing:
Plus:
Excess of corporate tax accruals over collections;
personal taxes, social insurance contributions,
etc
Adjustments for capital transactions:s
Less:
Realization upon loans and investments, sale of
Government property, etc
-
27.7
101.9
109.7
115.5
91.2
94.4
4.2
.1
30.5
4.4
.1
33.6
117.4
123.5
.2
.3
.3
.3
.3
.5
1.5
1.4
1.9
2.1
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
1.9
.5
-.7
-1.8
.5
.8
.6
.4
.5
109.6
114.7
116.0
121.0
_.
87.8
92.6
97.7
97.5
99.7
Intragovernmental transactions
Accrued interest and other non-cash expenditures
(net)
Trust fund expenditures (including Governmentsponsored enterprise expenditures net)
3.8
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.4
1.5
1.2
2.0
.9
.8
26.5
28.9
29.0
32.9
113.8
120.3
121.4
127.4
EXPENDITURES
Administrative Budget expenditures. _
Plus:
.1
24.3
4.2
.1
30.3
4.3
104.3
Equals: Receipts—National income accounts.
Less:
86.4
Equals: Federal payments to the public (consolidated cash
expenditures)
Adjustments for agency coverage:
Less:
District of Columbia expenditures
Adjustments for netting and consolidation:
Less:
Interest received and proceeds of Government sales.
Plus:
Contributions to Federal employees' retirement
funds, etc
Adjustments for timing:
Plus:
Excess of interest accruals over payments on
savings bonds and Treasury bills
Excess of deliveries over expenditures and miscellaneous items *
_
Less:
Commodity Credit Corporation foreign currency
exchanges.
_
1
Adjustments for capital transactions:
Less:
Loans—Federal National Mortgage Association,
foreign assistance, redemption of International
Monetary Fund notes, etc
Purchase of land and existing assets....
Equals: Expenditures—National income accounts..
25.1
107.7
.3
.5
.3
.3
.4
.4
1.5
1.4
1.9
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
1.7
.7
.9
.9
.8
.6
1.6
.2
1.5
1.7
1.2
.7
.6
.8
.7
3.5
1.4
.4
3.4
.5
1.4
.5
.7
.5
106.2
112.3
118.5
121.0
127.0
» Data for 1965 and 1966 are estimates.
* Less than $50 million.
» Consist of transactions in financial assets and liabilities, land and secondhand assets. Acquisition of
newly produced tangible assets are included in expenditures for goods and services as defined in the national
incoTre
and product accounts.
4
Includes increase in clearing account.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included.
Sources: Bureau of the Budget and Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
264
T A B L E B-64.—State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected fiscal years,
7927-63
[Millions of dollars]
Expenditures by function s
Revenues by source *
Fiscal year *
Total
ReveSales
nue
Corpo- from
Indiand
All
Prop- gross vidual ration Fed- other
erty
net
reincome
reveeral
taxes ceipts taxes income Gov- n u e 3
taxes erntaxes
ment
EduTotal cation
High- Public
All
wel- other
ways
<
fare
1927..
7,271
4,730
470
70
92
116
1,793
7,210
2,235
1,809
19321934..
1936..
1938..
7,267
7,678
8.395
9,228
4,487
4,076
4,093
4,440
752
1,008
1,484
1,794
74
80
153
218
79
49
113
165
232
1,016
948
800
1,643
1,449
1,604
1,811
7,765
7,181
7,644
8,757
2,311
1,831
2,177
2,491
1,741
1,509
1,425
1,650
444 .3,269
889 2.952
827 3,215
1,069 3,547
1940..
1942194419461948..
9,609
10,418
10,908
12,356
17,250
4,430
4,537
4,604
4,
6,126
1.982
2,351
2,289
156
272
451
447
592
945
-858
954
855
1.861
1,872 9,229
2,123 9,190
2,269 8,863
2,661 11,028
3,685 17,684
2,638
2,586
2,793
3,356
5,379
1,573
1,490
1,200
1,672
4,442
224
276
342
422
543
1,156
1,225
1,133
1,409
2,099
195019521953..
1954-
20,911
25,181
27,307
29. 012
7,349
8.652
9,375
9,967
5,154
6.357
6,927
7,276
788
998
1,065
1,127
593
846
817
778
2,486
2,566
2,870
2,966
4,541
5,763
6,252
6,897
22,787
26,098
27,910
30, 701
7,177
8,318
9,390
10,557
3,803
4,650
4,987
5,527
2,940 8,867
2,788 10,342
2,914 10,619
3,060 11,557
19551956—
195719581959--
31,073
34,667
38,164
41,219
45,306
10. 735
11, 749
12.864
14, 047
14,983
7,643
8.691
9.467
9,829
10, 437
1,237
744
1, 538
890
1.754
984
1,759 1,018
1,994 1,001
3.131 7,584 33, 724
3.335 8.465 36,711
3,843 9,252 40,375
9,699 44,851
4,
6,377 10,516 48,887
11,907
13,220
14,134
15. 919
17,283
6, 452
6,953
7,816
8,567
9,592
3,168
3,139
3,485
3,818
4,136
12,197
13,399
14,940
16,547
17,876
I960-..
1961—
1962—
50, 505
54,03"
58,252
62,890
16, 405
18,002
19,054
20,089
11. 849
12,463
13,494
14,456
2,463
2,613
3,037
3,269
6,974
7,131
7,871
8,722
18, 719 9,428
20, 574 9,844
22,216 10,357
24,012 11,136
4,404
4,720
5,084
5,481
19. 324
21,063
22, 549
24,187
1,180
1,
1,308
1,505
11, 634
12,563
13,489
14, 850
51. 876
56,201
60, 206
64,816
1
151
3,015
3,862
3,889
3,737
4,591
7,170
Fiscal years not the same for all governments.
2 Excludes revenues or expenditures of publicly owned utilities and liquor stores, and of insurance-trust
activities. Intergovernmental receipts and payments between State and local governments are also
excluded.
3 Includes licenses and other taxes and charges and miscellaneous revenues.
4 Includes expenditures for health, hospitals, police, local fire protection, natural resources, sanitation,
housing and community redevelopment, local parks and recreation, general control, financial administration, interest on general debt, and other and unallocable expenditures.
NOTE.—Data are not available for intervening years.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959 and 1960, respectively.
See Table B-54 for net debt of State and local governments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
265
CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE
T A B L E B-65.—Profits before and after taxes, all private corporations, 7929-64
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate profits (before taxes) and
inventory valuation adjustment
Manufacturing
Year or quarter
All
industries
Dura- Nonble durable
Total goods goods
indus- industries
tries
2.5
2.0
3.0
9.6
1.4
8.3
5.8
2.4
3.9
1.5
1.3
- . 6 -1.1
— .5 - . 5
.2
.9
2.4
1.3
.4
1.2
1.5
3.3
.8
.6
5.5
-.2
-.8
.5
2.5
—1.3
-3.4
-.4
1.0
—3 0
—5 4
-6.0
—2 4
—1 6
10.1
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
6.6
1.6
-2.0
-2.0
1.1
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
2.9
5.0
6.2
4.3
5.7
2.0
3.1
3.6
2.2
3.2
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
9.1
14.5
19.7
23.8
23.0
5.4
9.3
11.7
13.7
13.0
3.0
6.3
1945
1946
1947
4.5
2.1
5.3
7.4
1949
9.5
18.4
8.4
17.3
23 6 12.8
30.8 16.8
28.2 15.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
35.7
41.0
37.7
37.3
33.7
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
. . .
I960
1961
1963 3
1964 3*5
Corpo- CorpoTransporrate
rate
tation,
profits tax
All
Divicommu- other before liabilUndisnication, indus- taxes ity i Total dend tributed
payand
tries
ments profits
public
utilities
2.6
5.1
1929
1948...
Corporate profits
after taxes
.2 - 1 . 5
.1 —1.5
.7
.4
-.2
1.7
.5
.5
3.1
.7
.8
1.2
1.8
5.7
6.2
1.0
1.5
6.4
2.3
3.0
4.5
5.6
5.7
1.3
2.0
2.4
3.2
3.5
4.4
3.9
4.5
5.7
6.1
2.8
1.8
2.1
2.9
7.9
5.0
6.3
7.4
9.4
7.4
20.4
24.4
21.1
21.4
18.4
12.0
13.5
11.8
12.1
10.1
8.4
10.9
9.3
9.3
8.3
4.0
43.1
42.0
41.7
37.2
47.2
25.0
23.5
22.9
18.3
25.4
14.2
12.6
13.1
9.0
13.4
10.8
10.9
9.8
9.3
11.9
44.5
44.1
48.4
50.8
57.0
23.0
21.7
24.7
26.7
30.7
11.6
10.9
13.2
14.4
16.5
11.4
10.8
11.5
12.3
14.2
.9
1.7
1.7
.7
1.6
7.1
8.0
7.3
1.1
1.4
2.0
1.4
1.5
.4
.5
-3.0
.2
.7
4.1
2.6
2.1
2.6
— 7
-.2
2.9
1.4
2.2
4.3
4.7
2.3
5.0
9.3
17.0
20.9
24.6
23.3
2.8
7.6
11.4
14.1
12.9
6.5
9.4
9.5
10.5
10.4
4.0
4.5
6.1
7.1
8.7
10.7
8.3
9.1
11.2
10.1
19.0
22.6
29.5
33.0
26.4
11.3
12.5
10.4
13.4
18.2
20.5
16.0
4.7
5.8
6.5
7.2
11.3
12.0
11.8
11.0
11.0
40.6
42.2
36.7
38.3
34.1
17.9
22.4
19.5
20.2
17.2
22.8
19.7
17.2
18.1
16.8
9.8
13 6
10.7
8 3
8.9
7.0
6.7
12.8
12.9
13.3
13.3
15.1
44.9
44.7
43.2
37.4
47.7
21.8
21.2
20.9
18.6
23.2
23.0
23.5
22.3
18.8
24.5
11.2
12.1
12.6
12.4
13.7
11.8
11.3
9.7
6.4
10.8
7.0
7.3
8.0
8.4
8.9
14.4
15.1
15.7
15.7
17.4
44.3
44.2
48.2
51.3
57.2
22.3
22.3
23.2
24.6
25.6
22.0
21.9
25.0
26.7
31.6
14.5
15.2
16.5
18.0
19.8
75
11.8
.6
2.9
4.5
4.8
4.9
4.4
5.4
5.6
5.5
5.6
1.5
1.0
1.4
1.5
3.3
1.0
4.5
4.7
3.2
3.8
4.3
4.5
4.7
7.5
9.2
9.0
9.0
9.2
-.9
1.2
2.4
49
5.2
60
57
36
7.7
11 7
13.3
8.5
6.7
8.5
8.7
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I . .
II
III
IV..
47.1
48.0
48.3
50.3
24.0
24.0
24.8
26.1
12.8
12.7
13.5
13.8
11.2
11.3
11.3
12.3
7.7
8.1
8.0
8.2
15.5
15.8
15.4
16.0
47.2
47.9
48.1
49.4
22.7
23.0
23.1
23.8
24.5
24.9
25.0
25.7
16.1
16.4
16.5
17.1
8.4
8.5
8.5
8.6
1963: I II
III
IV
49.1
50.2
51.4
53.1
24.7
26.6
27.8
27.8
13.2
14.5
14.7
15.4
11.6
12.1
13.1
12.4
8.1
8.3
8.4
8.7
16.2
15.3
15.2
16.6
48.9
51.1
51.3
54.3
23.4
24.5
24.5
26.0
25.5
26.6
26.7
28.3
17.2
17.7
17.9
19.1
8.3
8.9
8.9
9.2
. . . . 56.4
57.9
58.1
30.6
31.7
31.2
16.6
17.0
16.9
13.9
14.8
14.3
8.5
8.8
9.3
17.4
17.4
17.6
56.6
57.9
58.0
25.4
26.0
26.0
31.2
31.9
32.0
19.4
19.8
20.0
20.2
11.8
12.1
12.0
1964: I
II
III
IV
1
Federal and State corporate income and excess profits taxes,
a3 Less than $50 million.
The new figures for 1962,1963, and 1964 reflect the new depreciation guidelines issued by the Treasury Department
July 11, 1962, and the investment tax credit provided in the Revenue Act of 1962.
4
Preliminary estimates.
8
Data for corporate profits are approximations for the year as a whole; data for fourth quarter are not
available. All other data incorporating or derived from these figures are correspondingly approximate.
• Not available.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
266
TABLE B-66.—Relation of profits before and after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales•,
private manufacturing corporations, by asset size class, 1958-64 *
Asset size class (millions of dollars)
Year or
quarter
All asset
sizes
Under 1
l t o 10
10 to 100
100 to 1,000
1,000 and
over
Ratio of profits (annual rate) to stockholders* equity—percent
Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After
taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
_
1961: I
II
III
IV
1962: I
II
III
IV
1963: I
II
III
_...
__
IV
1964: I ._
II
III
_
15.1
18.5
16.4
15.6
17.3
18.2
12.6
16.8
15.8
18.5
16.7
18.9
16.6
18.1
16.0
19.9
17.8
19.9
18.5
21.4
19.0
8.4
10.2
9.1
8.7
9.6
10.1
6.8
9.2
8.8
10.5
9.0
10.3
9.3
10.5
8.6
11.0
10.0
11.4
10.5
12.3
11.2
10.4
15.5
11.8
11.9
14.7
15.2
6.3
13.7
15.8
12.5
10.6
19.8
19.4
10.6
8.2
20.0
19.9
13.1
13.6
21.3
24.0
4.5
8.2
5.5
5.5
8.1
8.2
.9
6.8
8.4
6.3
4.6
11.7
11.3
5.4
2.5
11.9
11.5
6.9
7.4
13.3
15.5
13.7 6.2
17.4 8.5
13.4 6.0
13.8 6.3
16.0 7.6
16.0 7.6
8.3 2.6
14.7 6.9
16.8 8.2
16.1 7.7
14.0 5.9
18.1 8.8
18.1 8.8
15.1 7.4
12.2 5.1
17.7 8.6
18.3 9.0
16.0 7.8
15.4 7.2
20.3 10.4
20.6 11.0
15.5 7.8
19.5 9.9
16.3 8.2
15.2 7.6
16.6 8.4
16.8 8.5
11.8 5.6
16.3 8.3
16.3 8.1
17.3 8.9
14.6 7.1
17.8 9.0
17.1 8.6
17.0 8.9
13.7 6 6
18.0 9.1
17.8 9.0
18.1 9.3
15.6 7.9
19.7 10.5
20.3 10.8
16.7
19.1
17.2
16.3
16.8
17.6
13.9
17.1
17.1
18.3
16.3
18.1
16.4
17.5
15.6
19.1
18.1
18.9
17.4
20.3
19.4
8.9
10.2
9.4
8.9
9.1
9.6
7.5
9.1
9.2
10.3
8.6
9.7
8.7
9.9
8.3
10.3
9.8
10.6
9.7
11.4
11.0
14.7
18.3
17.6
16.6
19.0
20.5
14.4
18.0
13.6
21.4
20.1
20.2
15.6
21.5
20.0
22.4
17.0
24.1
22.5
23.6
16.9
10.2
11 4
11.1
10.7
11.7
12.6
9.5
11.2
9.2
13.5
12.1
11.8
9.9
13.8
12.1
13.3
10.8
14.9
13.8
14.4
11.1
Profits per dollar of sales—cents
Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After
taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes
1958
1959
7.4
8.8
4.2
4.8
2.3
3.3
1.0
1.7
5.1
5.9
2.3
2.9
7.5
9.1
3.8
4.7
8.6
9.6
4.6
5.1
1960
1961
1962
1963
8.0
7.7
8.2
8.5
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.7
2.6
2.6
3.2
3.2
1.2
1.2
1.7
1.7
4.7
4.7
5.2
5.1
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.4
7.7
7.3
7.6
7.6
3.9
3.7
3.8
3.9
8.8
8.3
8.3
8.6
4.8
4.5
4.5
4.7
1961: I
II
6.5
8.0
7.7
8.5
3.5
4.4
4.3
4.8
1.4
2.9
3.4
2.6
.2
1.5
1.8
1.3
3.0
4.8
5.5
5.1
.9
2.3
2.7
2.5
6.0
7.6
7.7
7.9
2.8
3.9
3.8
4.1
7.4
8.4
8.5
8.9
4.0
4.5
4.6
5.0
8.0
8.6
7.9
8.2
4.3
4.7
4.4
4.8
2.3
4.1
4.1
2.2
1.0
2.4
2.4
1.1
4.7
5.6
5.7
4.7
2.0
2.7
2.8
2.3
7.0
8.0
7.8
7.6
3.4
4.0
3.9
4.0
80
8.6
8.1
8.3
4.3
4.6
4.3
4.7
7.7
9.0
8.3
8.9
4.2
5.0
4.6
5.1
1.8
4.0
4.0
2.6
.6
2.4
2.3
1.4
4.0
5.5
5.7
5.0
1.7
2.7
2.8
2.4
6.5
8.0
8.0
8.0
3.1
4.1
4.0
4.1
7.8
9.0
8.6
8.8
4.2
4.8
4.6
4.9
8.6
9.5
8.7
4.9
5.5
5.1
2.9
4.3
4.8
1.6
2.7
3.1
5.0
6.1
6.3
2.3
3.1
3.3
7.1
8.4
8.6
3.6
4.5
4.6
8.5
9.5
9.2
4.7
5.3
5.2
III
IV
1962: I
II
Ill
IV
1963: I
Ill
IV
1964: I . .
II
III
11.6
13.7
12.8
13.1
13.7
14.3
11.6
13.6
11.4
15.2
14.2
14.0
12.0
14.4
14.0
14.8
12.7
15.5
14.7
14.9
12.0
8.0
8.6
8.1
8.4
8.4
8.8
7.7
8.5
7.7
9.5
8.5
8.2
7.6
9.2
8.5
8.8
8.1
9.6
9.0
9.1
7.9
1
Based on 1957 Standard Industrial Classification.
NOTE.—Data on a comparable basis are not available for earlier periods. For explanatory notes concern-
ing compilation of the series, see Quarterly Financial Reports for U.S. Manufacturing Corporations, Federal
Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included for all periods.
Sources: Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission.
267
TABLE B-67.—Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders'' equity and to sales, private manufacturing corporations, by industry group, 195&-641
Durable goods industries
Year or
quarter
All
pri-:
Lumvate
ber
Primanand Fur- Stone, mary
ufacwood
iron
clay,
tur- Total prod- niture and and
ing durand glass steel
cor- able ucts
fix- prod- in(ex- tures
poracept
ucts dustions
furnitries
ture)
Primary
nonferrous
metal
industries
ElecMa- trical
ma- MoFab- chintor
chin- vehiriery
cated (ex- ery, cles
metal cept equip- and
prod- elec- ment,' equipucts trical) and j ment
sup- j
plies |
Aircraft
and
parts
MiscellaIn- neous
stru- manments ufacand turreing
lated (inprod- cluducts ing
ordnance)
Ratio of profits after Federal taxes {annual rate) to stockholders' equity—percent
8.4
10.2
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
-
9.1
8.7
9.6
10.1
5.6
9.2
6.2
8.5
10.0
12.4
7.1
8.0
5.9
7.8
7.3
7.8
6.8
9.6
9.9
8.1
12.7
11.9
14.1
8.0
8.4
8.0
9.5
3.7
3.9
6.4
4.8
10.0
8.1
5.7
.7.7
9.6
8.7
8.7
8.6
7.3
6.1
5.4
6.9
7.2
7.0
7.4
7.6
5.5
6.0
7.8
8.1
7.5
7.7
8.9
9.6
9.2
8.8
9.7
9.9
13.3
11.3
15.9
16.4
2.9
3.2
7.0
6.4
8.0
6.1
8.0
6.1
8.1
2.5
7.3
7.7
6.2
5.7
9.1
7.8
8.5
7.3
8.2
8.1
8,0
7.2
13.2
12.0
18.1
10.2
10.9
10.8
11.6
13.5
7.6
5.8
3.4
5.0
8.2
8.8
5.8
7.3
6.3
9.8
8.6
6.9
8.1
9.2
10.8
10.4
16.8
18.3
12.3
12.7
11.8
13.9
12.6
12.0
13.5
5.1
9.6
5.5
7.8
6.9
8.1
6.9
8.6
5.9
8.9
10.3
12.9
11.5
10.6
11.5
12.8
15.0
7.6
9.4
8.0
9.2
7.4
10.4
11.0
11.4
9.2
10.4
12.8
12.9
11.5
13.9
15.6
7.8
10.1
8.2
- . 6 -1.1
6.2
4.0
6.8
7.0
3.7
9.6
1961: I—
II-.
III.
IV.
6.8
9.2
8.8
10.5
1962: I...
IIIII.
IV.
9.0
10.3
9.3
10.5
1963: I—
II..
III.
IV.
8.6
11.0
10.0
11.4
11.7
7.3
9.6
1964: I...
II..
III
10.5
12.3
11.2
10.6 8.1
13.4 12.1
10.8 11.7
7.0
9.0
5.2
8.9
7.8
10.4
8.9
10.8
8.5
10.2
8.2
9.3
11.3
1.4
7.6
8.4
4.9
4.6
7.2
10.6
9.1
3.7
9.1
3.5
7.9
12.6
12.0
11.5
10.9
11.7
9.7
3.7
11.8
11.9
8.0
1.5
12.9
11.8
8.4
4.1
12.4
12.5
8.4
10.0
8.3
9.2
8.2
9.2
6.3
9.3
11.0
20.6
7.9
9.2
11.1
10.2
17.3
19.6
9.7
9.7
10.7
13.9
12.9
9.6
9.4
11.2 20.6
9.7
10.8
11.0
20.3
22.5
10.3
12.6
11.1
10.2
12.2 11.9
11.1 11.9
7.2
9.2
7.1
9.9
9.8
8.8
Profits after taxes per dollar of sales—cents
1958.
1959.
4.2
4.8
3.9
4.8
2.8
4.2
2.0
2.7
6.8
7.9
5.4
5.4
4.7
5.8
3.1
3.2
3.7
4.8
3.8
4.4
4.0
6.3
2.4
1.6
5.4
6.5
I960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.0
3.9
4.4
4.5
1.7
1.9
2.5
3.3
2.1
1.6
2.3
2.4
6.6
5.8
5.6
5.3
5.1
4.6
3.9
4.8
5.4
5.3
5.5
5.3
2.4
2.5
3.1
3.2
3.9
4.1
4.5
4.7
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.8
5.9
5.5
6.9
6.9
1.4
1.8
2.4
2.3
5.9
5.4
5.9
6.0
1961: I—.
IIIIIV
3.5
4.4
4.3
4.8
2.7
4.2
3.8
4.7
-.3
2.9
3.0
1.7
-.4
1.3
2.1
2.9
2.4
6.8
7.0
6.2
2.7
5.0
4.6
5.7
4.8
5.9
4.8
5.8
1.2
3.0
3.1
2.4
3.2
4.6
4.2
4.4
2.9
3.2
3.3
4.3
4.1
3.8
7.5
5.8
1.4
1.9
2.0
2.0
4.0
5.3
6.0
6.2
1962: I—.
IIIIIIV..
4.3
4.7
4.4
4.8
4.2
4.8
4.0
4.5
.7
3.2
3.4
2.1
1.5
2.1
3.1
2.6
2.8
6.9
6.8
4.9
4.9
4.0
2.6
3.8
5.8
6.2
4.5
5.4
2.7
3.8
3.3
2.7
4.3
5.1
4.6
4.1
3.5
3.8
3.6
4.0
7.1
7.4
4.9
7.8
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.6
5.1
6.1
6.0
6.3
1963: I—
IIIII.
IV.
4.2
5.0
4.6
5.1
3.9
5.0
4.3
4.8
1.7
3.5
4.6
2.8
1.1
2.3
3.3
2.6
1.2
7.2
6.5
5.0
3.7
5.8
4.0
5.6
5.0
5.6
5.0
5.7
2.5
3.4
3.7
3.1
4.1
5.1
4.8
4.7
3.5
3.8
3.7
4.1
7.0
7.6
4.9
7.5
2.1
2.6
2.3
2.1
4.6
5.8
6.5
6.9
1964: I . . . .
II...
III.
4.9
5.5
5.1
4.8
5.6
4.9
3.4
4.5
4.4
2.1
2.6
3.2
2.8
6.8
6.8
5.2
5.9
5.1
6.3
6.7
5.7
3.0
4.0
4.1
5.2
6.1
6.0
3.8
4.0
4.2
7.9
8.4
4.7
2.1
2.6
2.9
6.2
7.0
7.8
See footnotes at end of table.
268
TABLE B-67.—Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, private manufacturing corporations, by industry group,
1958-64l—Continued
Nondurable goods industries
Year or quarter
Total
nondurable
Food
and
kindred
products
bacco
manufactures
ApTexparel Paper
tile
and
and
mill
allied
prod- related prodproducts
ucts
ucts
Printing
Ruband
ber
pub- Chemand Leather
Petro- mislish- icals
and
and
leum
ing
refin- cella- leather
(ex- allied
neous prodproding
cept
plastic ucts
news- ucts
prodpaucts
pers)
Ratio of profits after Federal taxes (annual rate) to stockholders' equity—percent
9.0
10.2
8.6
9.1
13.1
13.1
3.5
7.4
4.9
8.6
8.0
9.3
9.0
11.0
11.1
13.4
9.7
9.6
8.8
10.8
5.5
8.2
9.7
9.4
9.8
10.3
8.6
8.7
8.7
8.9
13.1
13.4
12.9
13.0
5.8
4.9
6.1
6.1
7.6
6.9
9.1
7.5
8.4
7.7
8.1
8.0
10.4
8.3
10.1
9.2
12.1
11.6
12.3
12.9
9.9
10.0
9.9
11.1
8.9
9.0
9.3
9.1
6.2
4.4
6.9
6.8
8.5
9.6
9.9
10.6
7.2
9.2
10.0
9.1
12.0
14.1
14.3
14.2
2.6
4.3
2.1
2.6
11.2
12.3
6.6
8.3
6.0
7.1
9.8
13.2
11.8
12.2
10.6
9.6
9.6
11.3
6.7
10.6
9.2
10.7
3.3
2.6
4.7
6.9
9.1
9.8
10.0
10.8
7.1
8.9
10.2
9.1
11.7
12.9
13.7
14.0
5.3
6.3
6.0
7.3
11.3
11.4
7.4
8.7
8.0
8.3
7.5
6.8
11.2
8.4
7.7
11.1
11.6
10.6
11.5
13.5
12.2
12.5
10.0
8.8
9.7
11.8
9.1
10.9
8.5
9.8
6.3
5.2
6.4
9.6
1963* I
II
III
9.1
10.4
10.7
11.4
7.1
8.9
10.2
9.7
11.1
13.6
14.4
14.3
4.4
6.2
6.6
6.4
6.7
8.7
6.3
8.4
7.9
7.0
8.9
9.8
6.3
9.9
12.7
7.5
11.1
14.3
12.7
13.5
11.0
10.3
11.0
12.9
8.2
10.2
8.8
9.7
5.8
4.4
8.0
9.3
1964: I - - - _ ——
II
III
10.4
11.3
11.7
8.2
9.6
11.5
10.6
14.3
14.0
5.8
8.6
8.2
7.2
8.5
10.2
17.2
9.7
8.8
10.3
13.7
14.5
13.1
15.5
14.0
11.6
10.8
10.5
9.1
11.3
10.7
8.4
9.1
12.0
1958
1959
- —
I960
1961
1962
1963
1961: I
II
HI
IV
-
—
— -
1962* I
II III
IV
. ~
6.7
7.9
7.3
9.1
Profits after taxes per dollar of sales—cents
1958
1959
—
I960
1961
1962
1963
—
1961: I
II
III
IV.
1962: I
...
II . .
Ill
IV
1963: I
II
III
IV
1964: I
II
HI
...
.
—
4.4
4.9
2.2
2.4
5.4
5.4
1.6
3.0
1.0
1.5
4.7
5.2
3.1
4.0
7.0
7.9
9.5
9.5
3.5
4.0
1.7
2.2
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.9
5.5
5.7
2.5
2.1
1.4
1.3
5.0
4.7
3.6
2.8
7.5
7.3
9.9
10.3
3.6
3.8
1.6
1.1
5* 7
5.9
2.3
1.4
4.5
3.2
7.5
10.8
3.6
1 S
1.8
4.2
4.6
4.8
5.0
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
1.9
2.4
2.6
2.3
5.3
5.7
5.9
5,9
1.2
1.8
2.5
2.7
.4
.5
1.8
2.1
4.1
4.8
4.3
5.2
2.6
2.3
3.7
2.7
6.5
7.8
7.4
7.6
10.4
9.9
9.8
11.1
2.9
4.2
3.8
4.2
.9
.7
1.2
1.6
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
1.9
2.3
2.7
2.3
5.4
5.5
5.8
6.1
2.2
2.5
2.4
2.8
1.3
1.4
1.9
1.9
4.4
4.9
4.5
4.5
2.6
3.6
3.9
3.4
7.2
7.6
7.3
7.5
9.5
8.8
9.5
11.0
3.7
4.1
3.4
3.7
1.6
1.4
1.6
2.4
4.4
4.9
5.0
5.3
1.9
2.3
2.7
2.5
5.3
5.8
6.1
6.3
1.8
2.4
2.5
2.5
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.6
3.7
4.7
4.4
5.3
2.2
3.4
4.5
2.5
6.8
8.0
7.4
7.7
10.2
10.0
10.6
12.1
3.4
3.9
3.5
3.6
1.5
1.2
2.1
2.3
5.0
5.4
5.4
2.2
2.6
3.0
5.3
6.1
6.0
2.3
2.7
3.7
.1.7
4.7
5.3
4.9
3.6
4.8
5.0
7.5
8.2
7.7
10.8
10.5
10.3
3.7
4.3
4.2
2.1
2.4
2.9
1.6
2.9
i Based on 1957 Standard Industrial Classification.
NOTE.—Data on a comparable basis are not available for earlier periods. For explanatory notes concerning compilation of the series, see Quarterly Financial Reports for U.S. Manufacturing Corporations,
Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission.
Data for Alaska and Hawaii included for all periods.
Sources: Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission.
269
TABLE B—68.—Sources and uses of corporate funds, 1953-64 ]
[Billions of dollars]
Souice or use of funds
1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 19642
Sources, total -
30.4 22.2 50.3 47.9 42.5 39.4 57.1 46.2 52.3 59.2 62.5 65.7
40.9
19.7 19.8 26.6 27.8 28.0 26.0 31.1 29.1 29.7 35.2
7.9 6.3 10.9 10.5 8.9 5.7 9.5 6.2 5.6 7.7 8.0 10-4
11.8 13.5 15.7 17.3 19.1 20.3 21.6 22.9 24.1 27.5 28.8 30.5
Internal sources, total..
Retained profits.—
Depreciation.External long-term sources, total
Stocks
Bonds
Other debt
...
Short-term sources, total
Bank loans...
__.
Trade payables..
__
Federal income tax liabilities
Other
Uses, total.
Increase in physical assets, total
Plant and equipment
Inventories (book value)
Increase in financial assets, total
Receivables
Consumer..
Other
Cash and U.S. Government securities
Cash (including deposits)
U.S. Government securities.
7.6
23
4.8
.5
3.1
-.1
.4
.6
2.2
8.6 11.1 11.9 10.9
2.7 3.2 3.5 3.6
4.2 4.7 7.0 5.9
1.7 3.2 1.4 1.4
6.4
2.1
3.8
.5
- 4 . 0 15.1 9.0 2.6 2.6
A
.3
- 1 . 1 3.7 2.2
- . 2 5.5 5.5 2.4 3! 8
- 3 . 1 3.8 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5
.4 2.1 3.0 2.1 1.7
9.5
3.7
4.1
1.
3.0
5.0
1.7
11.8 11.3 10.9 12.7
4.5 2.1
.6 2.3
5.1 5.0 5.2 5.1
2.2 4.2 5.0 5.3
16.5 7.4 10.8 12.8 14.8 12.1
5.4 1.3
.4 3.0 4.3 1.0
5.3 4.5 7.4 5.6 6.8 5.8
2.1 - 1 . 6
.7
.9 1.2 1.0
3.7 3.2 2.3 3.2 2.5 4.3
28.6 23.8 50.6 45.0 40.3 35.3 52.1 43.8 48.8 54.4 58.4 63.3
37.5 42.4
25.7 20.8 30.9 37.5 34.8 24.0 34. 33.3 30.9
23.9 22.4 24.2 29.9 32.7 26.4 27.7 30.8 29. 32.0 33.8 39.2
1.8 -1.6 6.7 7.6 2.1 -2.4 6.6 2.5 1.3 4.4 3.7 3.2
2.9
3.0 19.7
1.1
1.8
2.2 11.9
3.3
8.6
1.8
()
2.3
-2.3
Discrepancy (uses less sources) - 1 . 8
1.6
Other assets
.8
5.5 11.3 17.9 10.1 17.8 18.0 20.8 20.9
8.8
1.4
7.4
4.5 6.7 10.9
.9 - . 3 2.4
3.6 6.9 8.4
8.6
1.8
6.9
9.9 11.3 12.9 14.1
.1
2.4
10.5
9.8
5.0 - 4 . 3 —. d
3.6 2.0 2.0 1.3
2.9
1.2
.1
.2
-1.1 1.0 3.8 1.8 1.7
3.8
.4
-2.6
-.4
-4.5
4.0
2.8
1.3 1.9
3.f 4.3 4.7 5.9 5.5
3.0
4.
-2.2 -4.2
-2.4 -3.5 -4.9 - 4 . 1 -2.4
-2.9
-5.0
1
2
3
4
Excludes banks and insurance companies.
Preliminary estimate.
Less than $50 million.
Not available.
Source: Department of Commerce based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other financial
data.
270
TABLE B-69.—Current assets and liabilities of United States corporations, 1939-64 l
[Billions of dollars]
Current assets
Current liabilities
Net
working
capital
End of year or
quarter
1939..
54.5
10.8
2.2
22.1
18.0
1.4
30.0
1.2
6.9
24.5
19401941—
194219431944..
60.3
72.9
83.6
93.8
97.2
13.1
13.9
17.6
21.6
21.6
2.0
4.0
10.1
16.4
20.9
0.1
.6
4.0
5.0
4.7
23.9
27.4
23.3
21.9
21.8
19.8
25.6
27.3
27.6
26.8
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
32.8
40.7
47.3
51.6
51.7
0.6
.8
2.0
2.2
1.8
22.6
25.6
24.0
24.1
25.0
2.5
7.1
12.6
16.6
15.5
7.1
7.2
8.7
8.7
9.4
27.5
32.3
36.3
42.1
45.6
1945..
1946-
97.4
108.1
21.7
22.8
21.1
15.3
2.7
.7
23.2
30.0
26.3
37.6
2.4
1.7
45.8
51.9
.9
.1
24.8
31.5
10.4
8.5
9.7
11.8
51.6
56.2
194719481949-
123.6
133.0
133.1
25.0
25.3
26.5
14.1
14.8
16.8
44.6
48.9
45.3
1.6
1.6
1.4
61.5
64.4
60.7
10.7
11.5
9.3
13.2
13.5
14.0
62.1
68.6
72.4
19501951195219531954-
161.5
179.1
186.2
190.6
194.6
28.1
30.0
30.8
31.1
33.4
19.7
20.7
19.9
21.5
19.2
1.1
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.4
55.7
58.8
64.6
65.9
71.2
55.1
64.9
65.8
67.2
65.3
1.7
2.1
2.4
2.4
3.1
79.8
92.6
96.1
98.9
99.7
1.3
2.3
2.2
2.4
47.9
53.6
57.0
57.3
59.3
16.7
21.3
18.1
18.7
15.5
14.9
16.5
18.7
20.7
22.5
81.6
86.5
90.1
91.8
94.9
19551956195719581959-
224.0
237.9
244.7
255.3
277.3
34.6
34.8
34.9
37.4
23.5
19.1
18.6
18.8
22.8
2.3 86.6
2.6 95.1
2.8 99.4
2.8 106.9
2.9 117.7
72.8
80.4
82.2
81.9
88.4
4.2
5.9
6.7
7.5
9.1
121.0
130.5
133.1
136.6
153.1
2.3
2.4
2.3
1.7
1.7
73.8
81.5
84.3
88.7
99.3
19.3
17.6
15.4
12.9
15.0
25.729.0
31.1
33.3
37.0
103.0
107.4
111.6
118.7
124.2
19601961..
1962..
1963-
289.0
306.8
326.7
349.9
37.2
41.1
42.9
44.5
20.1
20.0
20.2
20.6
3.1
3.4
3.7
3.6
126.1 91.8
135.8 95.2
146.7 100.9
159. 7 107.3
10.6
11.4
12.4
14.3
160.4
171.2
184.0
198.8
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.5
105.0
112.8
121.2
131.8
13.5
14.1
15.0
16.3
40.1
42.5
45.7
48.2
128.6
135.6
142.8
151.2
1962: I...
II..
III.
IV..
309.5
314.3
321.5
i.7
38.1
38.7
38.9
42.9
20.6
19.7
19.2
20.2
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.7
137. 2 97.8
141.2 98.7
146.7 100.5
146.7 100.9
12.4
12.7
12.8
12.4
172.2
174.9
181.2
184.0
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
112.7
114.7
119.0
121.2
13.7
13.7
14.7
15.0
44.1
44.7
45.6
45.7
137.3
139.4
140.3
142.8
1963: I . . .
II..
III.
IV-
328.6
335.8
342.9
349.9
39.1
40.3
40.8
44.5
20.8
20.3
19.7
20.6
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.6
148.9
153.3
158.1
159.7
13.6
14.6
15.2
14.3
184.9
189.8
194.1
198.8
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
121.7
125.3
128.1
131.8
14.2
14.3
15.3
16.3
46.7
47.7
48.3
48.2
143.7
146.0
148.8
151.2
1964:
350.6
356.7
364.3
40.6
21.4
20.2
19.1
3.3 161.3 108.6
3.0 165.6 109.6
3.2 171.6 111.2
2.6 128.9
2.6 131.7
2.7 135.0
15.6
15.2
16.0
48.8
50.1
51.2
154.7
157.1
159.4
II..
III.
38.3
42.4
43.0
102.6
104.0
105.8
107.3
15.5 195.9
15.9 199.6
16.1 204.9
21.9
37.6
39.3
37.5
.4
» All United States corporations, excluding banks, savings and loan associations, and insurance companies.
Year-end data through 1961 are based on Statistics of Income (Treasury Department), covering virtually all
corporations in the United States. Statistics of Income data may not be strictly comparable from year to
year because of changes in the tax laws, basis for filing returns, and processing of data for compilation purposes. All other figures shown are estimates based on data compiled from many different sources, including
data on corporations registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As more complete information becomes available, estimates are revised.
' Receivables from and payables to U.S. Government do not include amounts offset against each other
on the corporation's books or amounts arising from subcontracting which are not directly due from or to
the U.S. Government. Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Government
advances offset against inventories on the corporation's books.
3 Includes marketable securities other than U.S. Government.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
271
TABLE B-70.—State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-64l
[Millions of dollars]
Corporate securities offered for cash »
Year or quarter
State
and
Gross proceeds •
Proposed uses of net proceeds *
municipal securities
New money
offered
for cash
Retire- Other
ComBonds
Pre(prinPlant Work- ment
purTotal mon ferred and Total
cipal
of se- poses
ing
stock stock notes
and
amounts)
Total equipcapi- curities
ment
tal
939
397
19
372
384
57
32
26
231
95
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939.
1,232
1,121
908
1,108
1,128
2,332
4,572
2,310
2,155
2,164
22
272
285
25
87
86
271
406
86
98
2,224
4,028
1,618
2,044
1,980
2,266
4,431
2,239
2,110
2,115
208
858
991
681
325
111
380
574
504
170
96
478
417
177
155
1,865
3,368
1,100
1,206
1,695
193
204
148
222
95
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1,238
956
624
435
661
2,677
2,667
1,062
1,170
3,202
108
110
34
56
163
183
167
112
124
369
2,386
2,390
917
990
2,670
2,615
2,623
1,043
1,147
3,142
569
868
474
308
657
424
661
287
141
252
145
207
187
167
405
1,854
1,583
396
739
2,389
192
172
173
100
96
1945
1946.
1947
1948
1949
795
1,157
2,324
2,690
2,907
6,011
6,900
6,577
7,078
6,052
307
758
891 1,127
762
779
614 492
425
736
4,855
4,882
5,036
5,973
4,890
5,902
6,757
6,466
6,959
5,959
1,080
3,279
4,591
5,929
4,606
638
2,115
3,409
4,221
3,724
442
1,164
1,182
1,708
882
4,555
2,868
1,352
307
401
267
610
524
722
952
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
3,532
3,189
4,401
5,558
6,969
6,361
7,741
9,534
8,898
9,516
811
1,212
1,369
1,326
1,213
631
838
564
489
816
4,920
5,691
7,601
7,083
7,488
6,261
7,607
9,380
8,755
9,365
4,006
6,531
8,180
7,960
6,780
2,966
5,110
6,312
5,647
5,110
1,041
1,421
1,868
2,313
1,670
1,271
486
664
260
1,875
984
589
537
535
709
1955
1956
1957.
1958
1959
5,977
5,446
6,958
7,449
7,681
10,240
10,939
12,884
11,558
9,748
2,185
2,301
2,516
1,334
2,027
635
636
411
571
531
7,420
8,002
9,957
9,653
7,190
10,049 7.957
10,749 9,663
12,661 11,784
11,372 9,907
9,527 8,578
5,333
6,709
9,040
7,792
6,084
2,624
2,954
2,744
2,115
2,494
1,227
364
214
549
135
864
721
663
915
814
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964»
7,230
8,360
8, 558
10,107
10,531
10,154
13,165
10,705
12,237
13,381
1.664
3,294
1,314
1,022
2, 684
409
450
422
342
398
8,081
9,420
8,969
10,872
10,299
9,924 8,758
12,885 10,715
10,501 8,240
12,081 8,993
13,201 10,941
5,662
7,413
5,652
5,405
7,059
3.097
3,303
2,588
3,588
3,882
271
868
754
1,528
717
895
1,302
1,507
1, 561
1,543
1962: I_._
II..
III.
IV..
2,610
2,534
1,627
1,788
2,346
3,316
2,166
2,875
491
466
201
156
17
176
108
121
1,838
2,675
1,858
2,598
2,288
3,251
2,128
2,835
2,007
2,663
1,507
2,063
1,419
1,879
1,020
1,334
589
784
487
727
60
194
225
275
221
392
395
498
1963: I . . .
II..
III.
IV..
2,798
2,889
1,967
2,453
2,700
3,635
2,437
3,466
222
344
208
249
65
81
79
117
2,414
3,209
2,149
3,100
2,664
3,587
2,404
3,424
2,067
2,425
1,884
2,616
1,452
1,539
1,016
1,396
614
886
868
1,220
314
740
295
179
284
422
225
628
1964: I__.
II..
III.
IV«
2,661
2,764
2,642
2,465
262
2,500
4,850 1,735
2,727 357
3,303 329
38
154
137
69
2,199
2,961
2,234
2,904
2,470
4,797
2,689
3,245
2,045
4,339
2,011
2,545
1,144
3,170
1,190
1,556
901
1,170
821
989
102
172
213
230
324
285
465
469
1934
i These data cover substantially all new issues of State, municipal, and corporate securities offered for
cash sale in the United States in amounts over $100,000 and with terms to maturity of more than 1 year.
* Excludes notes issued exclusively to commercial banks, intercorporate transactions, sales of investment company issues, and issues to be sold over an extended period, such as offerings under employeepurchase plans.
» Number of units multiplied by offering price.
« Net proceeds represents the amount received by the issuer after payment of compensation to distributors
and
other costs of flotation.
8
Preliminary.
NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included for all periods.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission, The Commercial and Financial Chronicle, and The Bond
Buyer.
272
TABLE B-71.—Common stock prices, earnings, and yields and stock market credit, 1939—64
Standard and Poor's common stock data
Price index *
Year or month
Total
Indus- Public Railtrial utilities roads
Stock market credit
Customer credit (excluding
U.S. Government securities) Bank
Dividend Price/
yield 2 earn(perrings
ratio 3 Total
cent)
Millions of dollars
1941-43 = 10
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1963: Jan..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June.
July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov
Dec.
1964: Jan..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June.
July.
Aug.
Sept.
QctNov.
Dec.
12.06
11.02
9.82
8.67
11.50
12.47
15.16
17.08
15.17
15.53
15.23
18.40
22.34
24.50
24.73
29.69
40.49
46.62
44.38
46.24
57.38
55.85
66.27
62.38
69.87
81.37
65.06
65.92
65.67
68.76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74.17
76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80.24
83.22
82.00
83.41
84.85
85.44
83.96
11.77
10.69
9.72
8.78
11.49
12.34
14.72
16.48
14.85
15.34
15.00
18.33
22.68
24.78
24.84
30.25
42.40
49.80
47.63
49.36
61.45
59.43
69.99
65.54
73.39
86.19
68.00
68.91
68.71
72.17
73.60
73.61
72.45
74.43
76.63
77.09
76.69
78.38
80.85
81.96
83.64
84.92
85.79
85.13
88.19
86.70
88.27
89.75
90.36
88.71
16.34
15.05
10.93
7.74
11.34
12.81
16.84
20.76
18.01
16.77
17.87
19.96
20.59
22.86
24.03
27.57
31.37
32.25
32.19
37.22
44.15
46.86
60.20
59.16
64.99
69.91
63.35
64.07
63.35
64.64
65.52
64.87
64.47
66.57
67.09
65.55
64.81
65.64
67.26
67.20
66.78
67.30
67.29
67.46
70.35
71.17
72.07
73.37
74.39
74.24
loans to
brokers
Net
Bank
and
debit
loans
balto 5 dealers«
ances * "others"
9.82
9.41
9.39
8.81
11.81
13.47
18.21
19.09
14.02
15.27
12.83
15.53
19.91
22.49
22.60
23.96
32.94
33.65
28.11
27.05
35.09
30.31
32.83
30.56
37.58
45.46
34.06
34.59
34.60
36.25
38.37
39.34
38.75
39.22
39. CO
38.31
38.60
39.92
41.00
41.54
42.88
43.27
44.86
46.29
48.93
47.17
47.14
48.69
48.01
45.71
4.05
5.59
6.82
7.24
4.93
4.86
4.17
3.85
4.93
5.54
6.59
6.57
6.13
5.80
5.80
4.95
4.08
4.09
4.35
3.97
3.23
3.47
2.98
3.37
3.17
3.01
3.31
3.27
3.28
3.15
3.13
3.16
3.20
3.13
3.06
3.05
3.14
3.14
3.06
3.05
3.03
3.00
3.01
3.05
2.96
3.03
3.00
2.95
2.96
3.06
13.80
10.24
8.26
8.80
12.84
13.66
16.33
17.69
9.36
6.90
6.64
6.63
9.27
10.47
9.69
11.25
11.50
14.05
12.89
16.64
17.05
17.09
21.06
16.68
17.62
17.85
17.26
17.57
17.78
18.16
17.61
~17.~87
8 8
8 ?
()
1,374
976
1,032
968
1,249
1,798
1,826
1,980
2,445
3,436
4,030
3,984
3,576
4,537
4,461
4,415
5,602
5,494
7,242
7,053
5,595
5,717
5,754
5,978
6,229
6,420
6,511
6,660
6,971
7,180
7,298
7,242
7,250
7,120
7,141
7,314
7,277
7,229
7,160
7,096
7,142
7,101
7,108
7,053
942
473
517
499
821
1,237
1,253
1,332
1,665
2,388
2,791
2,823
2,482
3,285
3,280
3,222
4,259
4,125
5,515
5,079
4,208
4,332
4,331
4,526
4,737
4,898
4,895
5,034
5,316
5,495
5,586
5,515
5,524
5,384
5,366
5,510
5,439
5,370
5,289
5,187
5,221
5,185
5,160
5,079
( 7)
(
i
353
432
503
515
469
428
561
573
648
780
1,048
1,239
1,161
1,094
1,252
1,181
1,193
1,343
1,369
1,727
1,974
1,387
1,385
1,423
1,452
L,492
1,522
1,616
L,626
1,655
1,685
L, 712
1,727
1,726
L,736
L, 775
1,804
1,838
1,859
L, 871
1,909
1,921
1,916
1,948
:1,974
715
584
535
850
1,328
2,137
2,782
1,471
784
1,331
1,608
1,742
1,419
2,002
2,248
2,688
2,852
2,214
2,190
2,569
2,584
2,614
3,398
4,352
4,822
4,631
3,068
3,856
3,376
3,194
3,364
4,068
3,631
3.331
4,530
3.635
4,050
4,822
4, 095
3,862
4,042
4,047
4,317
4,654
4,443
3,989
4,794
3,878
4,133
4,631
1
Includes 500 common stocks, 425 are industrials; 50 are public utilities; and 25 are railroads. Annua
data
are averages of monthly figures and monthly data are averages of daily figures.
2
Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by the aggregate monthly market
value of the stocks in the group. Annual yields are averages of monthly data.
3 Ratio of Quarterly earnings (seasonally adjusted annual rate) to price index for last day in quarter.
Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data.
• As reported by member firms of the New York Stock Exchange carrying margin accounts. Includes
net debit balances of all customers (other than general partners in the reporting firm and memberfirmsof
national exchanges) whose combined accounts net to a debit. Balances secured by U.S. Government
obligations are excluded. Data are for end of period.
• Loans by weekly reporting member banks to others than brokers and dealers for purchasing or carrying
securities except U.S. Government obligations. From 1953 through June 1959, loans for purchasing or
carrying U.S. Government securities were reported separately only by New York and Chicago banks.
Accordingly, for that period any loans for purchasing or carrying such securities at other reporting- banks
are included. Series also revised beginning July 1946, March 1953, July 1958, and April 1961. Data are for
last Wednesday of period. For details, see Federal Reserve Bulletin, June 1961.
• Loans by weekly reporting member banks for purchasing or carrying securities, including U.S. Government obligations. Series revised beginning July 1946, January 1952, July 1958, July 1959, and April 1961.
Data
are for last Wednesday of period. For details, see Federal Reserve Bulletin, June 1961.
7
Not available.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor's Corporation, and New
York Stock Exchange.
273
T A B L E B-72.—Business population and business failures,
Operating
businesses
(thousands2
of firms) i
Year or month
Newbusiness
porations
(number) 3
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936.
1937
1938
1939
_.
- -
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957.
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1963: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1964: Tan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Ausr
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
.
- -
1929-641
Business failures 4»
Business
failure
rate«
3,029
103.9
2,994
121.6
2,916
133.4
154.1
2,828
2,782
i 100.3
2,884
61.1
2,992
61.7
3,070
47.8
3,136
45.9
3,074
61.1
3,222
7 69.6
3,319
63.0
3,276
54.5
3,295
44.6
3,030
16.4
2,839
6.5
2,995
4.2
3,242
132,916
5.2
3,651
112,638
14.3
3,873
20.4
96,101
3,984
34.4
85,491
4,009
92,925
34.3
4,067
83,649
30.7
4,118
92,819
28.7
4,188
102, 545
33.2
4,240
117,164
42.0
4,287
139,651
41.6
4,381
140,775
48.0
4,471
51.7
136,697
4,533
150,280
55.9
4,583 «193,067
51.8
182,713
4,658
57.0
4,713
64.4
181, 535
4,755 9 182,057 9 60.8
4,815 186,404
56. 3
4,860 io 197,717
53.2
4,815 »14,924
*65.£
15,890
60.7
15 56$
54.4
1.825
15,305
54.2
15 682
56.1,
15,536
67.8
15, AS1
57.1
4,835
16,093
54.5
15,689
59.4
16, 275
4,850
69.6
15 759
65 1
15,867
51.2
A, 860
16,250
53.9
16,018
55.3
15,992
56.6
16,180
4,875
51.3
15,917
J9.4
53.2
15,919
15,979
54.9
A, 895
16,074
59.1
16,605
56.3
4,910
16, A9$
50.7
17,103
50.3
48.2
io 17,1A7
Number of failures
Liability size
class
Total Under $100,000
and
$100,000 over
22,909
22,165
26,355 25,408
28,285 27, 230
31,822 30,197
19,859 ^ 18,880
12,091 11,421
12, 244 11,691
9,285
9,607
9,203
9,490
12,836 12, 553
14,768 714,541
744
13,619
11,848
9,405
3,221
1,222
809
1,129
3,474
5,250
9,246
13,400
11,685
9,282
3,155
1,176
759
1,002
3,103
4,853
8,708
947
1,055
1,625
7
979
670
553
322
287
283
7 227
219
163
123
66
46
50
127
371
397
538
9,162
8,058
7,611
8,862
11,086
10,969
12,686
13,739
14,964
14,053
8,746
7,626
7,081
8,075
10, 226
10,113
11,615
12,547
13,499
12,707
416
432
530
787
860
856
1,071
1,192
1,465
1,346
15,445
17,075
15,782
9
14,374
15,301
13,650
15,006
13,772
12,192
11,346
1,795
2,069
2,010
2,182
2,155
1,258
1,304
1,295
1,287
1 303
1,211
1,001
1,109
1,107
1,116
1,062
1,042
257
195
188
171
241
169
1,155
1 135
1,051
1,262
1 115
998
984
982
905
1,056
970
858
171
153
146
206
145
140
1,217
1,241
1I320
1,197
1,075
1,157
992
1,050
1,139
969
914
1,003
225
191
181
228
161
154
1,096
1,169
1,034
1,060
967
968
908
1,018
837
893
810
813
188
151
197
167
157
155
9
Amount of current
liabilities (millions of
dollars)
Liability size
class
Total Under $100,000
and
$100,000 over
483.3
261.5
221.8
668.3
303.5
364.8
736.3
354.2
382.2
928.3
432.6
495 7
7 457. 5 7 215. 5 7 242.0
334.0
138.5
195.4
310.6
175.1
135.5
203.2
100.4
102.8
183.3
81.4
101.9
246.5
106.4
140.1
7 182. 5 7132.9
7 49.7
166.7
119.9
46.8
136.1
35.4
100.7
100.8
80.3
20.5
45.3
30.2
15.1
31.7
14.5
17.1
30.2
11.4
18.8
67.3
15.7
51.6
204.6
63.7
140.9
234.6
93.9
140.7
308.1
161.4
146.7
248.3
151.2
97.1
259.5
131.6
128.0
283.3
151.4
131.9
394.2
167.5
226.6
462.6
211.4
251.2
449.4
206.4
243.0
562.7
239.8
322.9
615.3
267.1
348.2
728.3
297.6
430.7
692.8
413.9
278.9
938.6
611.4
327.2
1,090.1
720.0
370.1
1,213.6
346.5
867.1*
9
1,352.6 321.0 1,031.6
1,329. 2 313.6 1,015. 6
» 161.0
25. 5
135.4
94.7
29.6
65.2
97.7
68.9
28.8
100.8
71.3
29.5
US. 3
90.3
28 0
86.2
58.5
27.6
120.5
94.7
25.8
65.2
38.3
26.9
62.0
85.9
23.9
91.8
64.3
27.5
262.1
24.6
237.5
68.4
45.3
23.1
96.7
68.9
27.9
04.7
123.9
29.2
111.0
30.4
80.6
112.9
26.2
86.6
93.4
68.3
25.1
144.5
116.9
27.6
101.1
125.6
24.5
95.2
66.3
28.9
114.6
92.3
22.3
68.3
25.4
93.8
119.3
22.4
97.0
23.7
74.5
98.2
1
Excludes firms in the fields of agriculture and professional services. Includes self-employed person
only
if he has either an established place of business or at least one paid employee.
2
Data through 1939 are averages of end-of-quarter estimates centered at June 30. Beginning 1940, data
are3 for beginning of period. Quarterly data shown here are seasonally adjusted.
Total for period. Monthly data are seasonally adjusted.
4
Total for period.
5
Commercial and industrial failures only. Excludes failures of banks and railroads and, beginning 1933,
of 6real estate, insurance, holding, and financial companies, steamship lines, travel agencies, etc.
Failure rate per 10,000 listed enterprises. Monthly data are seasonally adjusted.
7
Series revised; not strictly comparable with earlier data.
8
Includes data for Hawaii beginning 1959 and Alaska beginning 1960. (Data for 1958 comparable to 1959
are9 150,781; data for 1960 comparable to 1959 are 182,374.)
Includes data for District of Columbia beginning 1963.
10
Preliminary.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Office of Business Economics) and Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
274
AGRICULTURE
TABLE B-73.—Income from agriculture, 1929-64
Income received from farming
Personal income
received by total
farm population
Year or
quarter
Net to farm
operators
Eealized gross
Produc-
From
Cash tion exFrom From nonreceipts penses
all
farm
farm 1 Total 2 from
sources sources sources
marketings
Net income per
farm, including
net inventory
change
Exclud- Including net ing net
inven- inven- Current
tory
tory
prices
change change 3
1964
prices 4
Dollars
Billions of dollars
1929
13.9
11.3
7.6
6.3
6.1
943
1,849
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
9.1
6.4
4.7
5.3
6.9
5.5
4.4
4.3
4.5
2.9
1.9
2.8
4.3
3.3
2.0
2.6
650
506
305
382
6.4
4.7
3.9
2.9
434
1,354
1,234
871
1,061
1,059
7.1
8.4
8.9
7.7
5.1
4.6
5.1
5.2
4.3
5.3
4.3
6.0
4.4
643
911
675
697
5.4
3.2
2.2
11.4
8.4
6.4
7.1
8.5
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
7.7
7.2
9.0
7.2
5.4
2.3
4.6
6.3
4.7
2.6
2.7
2.4
9.7
7.4
4.8
2.6
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
7.6
4.9
2.7
10.1
14.0
16.3
16.5
6.9
10.2
12.2
12.3
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
17.1
20.1
21.0
23.5
19.0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
- -
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964*
10.7
11.3
10.1
10.6
5.6
6.1
5.8
778
1,898
1,568
2,119
1,646
1,742
7.9
6.2
4.4
4.5
8.4
3.2
3.8
4.1
4.2
11.0
13.8
18.8
23.4
24.4
6.7
4.3
6.2
8.8
11.9
12.2
720
11.1
15.6
19.6
20.5
7.7
9.9
11.5
12.2
4.6
6.6
9.9
11.8
11.8
1,044
1,600
1,942
1,967
1,800
2,428
3,200
3,531
3,391
12.9
15.7
16.0
18.1
13.5
4.2
4.4
5.0
5.4
5.6
25.8
29.7
34.4
34.9
31.8
21.7
24.8
29.6
30.2
27.8
12.9
14.5
17.0
18.9
18.0
12.8
15.2
17.3
16.1
13.8
12.4
15.3
15.5
17.8
12.9
2,080
2,574
2,648
3,065
2,259
3,410
3,785
3,352
3,649
2,789
20 4
22.8
22.3
20.0
19.0
14 3
16.5
15.7
13.8
13.2
6.0
6.3
6.6
6.3
5.8
32.5
37.3
37.0
35.3
33.9
28.5
33.0
32.6
31.1
30.0
19.3
22.2
22.6
21.4
21.7
13.2
15.2
14.4
13.9
12.2
14.0
16.3
15.3
13.3
12.7
2,479
3,009
2,951
2,664
2,645
3,023
3,343
3,279
2,960
2,939
18.3
18.6
18.8
20.5
19.0
12.2
12.0
12.2
13.8
11 8
6.1
6.6
6.6
6.7
7.1
33.3
34.6
34.4
37.9
37.5
29.6
30.6
29.8
33.4
33.5
21.9
22.6
23.4
25.3
26.2
11.5
12.0
11.0
12.6
11.3
11.8
11.6
11.8
13.5
11.4
2,529
2,574
2,695
3,201
2,775
2,810
2,829
2,867
3,369
2,891
19.6
20.1
20.4
19.9
19.6
12.3
13.1
13.3
13.0
12.7
7.2
7.0
7.1
6.8
6.9
37.9
39.6
4G.9
41.7
42.0
34.0
31.9
36.1
36.9
36.7
26.2
27.0
28.3
29.2
29.4
11.7
12.6
12.6
12.5
12.6
12.0
12.9
13.2
13.0
12.7
3,044
3,389
3,581
3,643
3,656
3,138
3,494
3,654
3,680
3,656
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1963: I
II
Ill
IV
1964: I
II
III
IV«
41.9
41.5
41.6
42.0
37.0
36.7
36.8
37.2
29.3
29.2
29.2
29.2
12.6
12.3
12.4
12.8
13.2
12.8
12.9
13.2
3,690
3,580
3,610
3,690
3,730
3,610
3,650
3,730
41.9
42 0
41.6
42.5
36.7
36.8
36.2
37.1
29.6
29.7
29.1
29.2
12.3
12.3
12.5
13.3
12.6
12.6
12.6
12.9
3,630
3,630
3,630
3,710
3,670
3,630
3,630
3,710
1
Includes all income received by farm residents from no farm sources such as wages and salaries from
nonfarm employment, nonfarm business and professional income, rents from nonfarm real estate, dividends,
interest, royalties, unemployment compensation and social security payments.
* Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
' Includes net change in inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Data
prior to 1946 differ from farm proprietors' income shown in Tables B-ll and B-14 because of revisions by
the Department of Agriculture not yet incorporated into the national income accounts of the Department
of Commerce.
* Income in current prices divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a
1964
base.
6
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
275
TABLE B-74.—Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, and parity ratio, 1929-64
[1957-59=100]
Prices received by farmers
Crops
Year or month
All
farm
prod-1
All 1 Food
ucts crops
grains
Feed grains
and hay
Feed
Total grains
Livestock and products
OilCot- To- bearton bacco ing
crops
All
livestock
and
products l
M e a t Dairy Poulani. prod- try
mals ucts and
eggs
55
44
27
21
31
43
46
51
57
35
34
40
46
57
70
78
81
95
128
118
103
106
115
116
111
110
107
106
106
98
96
96
99
107
106
89
74
67
46
31
36
60
68
65
79
45
46
54
58
72
96
108
106
127
161
162
112
122
143
147
130
128
116
115
105
97
98
95
95
97
103
105
77
68
44
28
36
60
70
68
84
45
44
54
58
73
97
109
104
131
171
170
109
123
147
150
132
130
116
116
105
97
98
93
94
95
101
102
57
40
24
19
26
39
38
38
36
27
28
32
43
60
64
66
69
91
105
104
94
108
129
119
102
105
104
103
101
97
102
97
100
104
104
100
35
29
20
18
22
32
35
33
41
36
31
28
32
51
66
72
74
78
77
78
82
83
90
89
89
91
90
93
96
100
104
103
109
109
102
101
62
48
32
19
25
45
55
52
56
42
42
45
60
80
88
97
100
114
158
153
106
120
148
129
122
133
109
111
106
9*
96
93
112
109
113
112
62
52
38
28
27
32
44
46
49
43
41
42
53
66
77
76
82
94
111
122
106
108
130
119
104
97
90
88
94
106
100
98
98
99
95
91
50
65
43
55
30
43
20
33
19
34
22
40
38
45
49
38
42
51
37
45
43
36
47
35
55
46
60
63
66 •77
62 •86
•67 •89
•81 • 104
106
107
117
117
98
101
97
110
133 112
118
115
104
94
96
92
96
80
76
99
89
101
99
109
102
100
101
96
97
101
99
101
99
94
87
100
102
81
62
51
47
56
74
73
70
69
61
62
77
96
121
112
126
127
141
153
140
118
144
130
140
113
121
112
102
108
90
101
92
92
92
90
1963- Jan
Feb
Mar ..
Apr
May
June
101
101
99
100
99
100
104
106
109
110
109
109
110
110
113
110
102
99
101
101
101
102
106
96
98
98
99
101
106
98
100
105
107
105
105
100
103
103
103
103
103
110
113
113
111
113
113
100
97
94
93
92
93
100
95
92
94
93
96
101
100
97
94
92
90
97
101
98
91
85
85
101
100
100
100
100
98
106
104
104
105
108
108
97
97
101
105
106
107
107
106
108
102
100
103
107
104
106
99
96
99
103
104
106
106
105
101
102
99
103
102
100
99
112
111
111
115
118
116
97
97
97
96
94
91
100
98
95
93
88
84
94
98
102
105
106
105
87
90
94
94
95
92
1964* Jan
Feb
Mar . .
Apr
May
June
101
99
99
98
97
96
109
109
108
109
111
108
109
108
102
106
103
80
105
103
105
101
99
101
103
104
105
97
95
99
102
104
105
101
101
101
101
101
101
117
115
114
110
107
107
94
92
92
89
87
87
89
87
89
87
85
86
103
101
99
95
92
91
97
92
91
86
83
84
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
97
96
98
98
97
97
105
101
102
104
104
105
76
76
77
78
79
79
102
101
105
101
98
105
105
99
99
100
97
95
101
100
99
102
101
102
108
106
111
114
115
119
91
92
95
93
92
91
89
89
92
87
84
85
95
98
102
106
108
106
88
92
92
91
91
88
....
HI
|
July .. .
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
61
52
34
26
32
44
46
49
53
36
37
41
48
65
84
89
91
102
118
114
100
104
119
120
108
108
104
105
101
100
99
99
102
HI
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
I960
1951.
1952 .
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959 . ...
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964 '
61
52
36
27
29
37
45
47
51
40
39
42
51
66
•80
• 82
•86
•98
114
119
103
107
125
119
105
102
96
95
97
104
99
98
99
101
100
98
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
|
103
107
104
101
108
See footnotes at end of table.
276
TABLE B—74.—Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, and parity ratio, 1929-64—
Continued
[1957-59=100]
Prices paid by farmers
Year or month
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953 .
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1962
19631964 7
1963- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
AUR
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1964* Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
JVIay
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
JNov
Dec
All
Commodities and services
items
inProduction items
terest,
taxes,
FamAll
and
ily
All
Motor Farm
wage items living producmaverates
items tion Feed
chinhicles
(parity
ery
items »
index)
55
52
44
38
37
41
42
42
45
42
42
42
45
52
58
62
65
71
82
89
86
88
97
98
95
95
94
95
98
100
102
102
103
105
106
107
107
107
106
107
107
106
107
107
106
106
106
106
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
107
55
51
44
38
38
43
45
45
48
45
44
45
48
55
61
64
66
72
85
92
88
90
100
100
96
95
96
98
101
101
101
101
103
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
54
50
43
37
38
43
48
43
45
43
42
42
45
52
58
61
64
71
83
88
85
86
94
95
94
94
95
96
99
100
101
102
102
103
104
105
104
104
104
104
104
104
105
104
104
104
104
104
104
105
104
105
105
105
105
105
105
105
105
105
56
52
43
38
38
44
46
46
50
47
46
47
50
57
63
66
67
73
85
95
91
94
104
104
97
97
96
95
98
100
102
101
101
103
104
103
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
103
103
104
103
104
104
103
103
103
103
103
103
103
103
68
61
43
32
37
52
53
55
62
47
47
50
54
66
78
87
86
100
118
125
103
105
118
126
114
113
106
103
101
99
100
98
98
100
104
103
103
104
104
103
102
103
104
104
105
104
103
105
106
105
104
104
103
102
101
101
103
103
102
104
1
2
3
Parity
W
a
g
e
ratio
»
ter- Taxes
rates«
est*
In-
Fertilizer
36
35
35
34
34
36
37
38
39
42
40
40
42
45
47
51
53
55
63
71
78
78
83
87
86
86
87
89
96
100
104
102
102
105
109
111
109
43
43
42
40
39
40
41
42
43
44
43
43
43
46
48
49
49
51
58
67
76
78
83
86
87
87
87
92
96
100
104
107
110
111
114
117
109
113
109
109
114
100
108
108
108
110
114
100
111
115
111
111
116
85
83
75
66
61
69
68
64
67
67
66
64
64
71
76
77
79
79
88
96
98
94
100
102
103
102
101
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
" Too
114
120
116
111
110
110
111
111
118
118
100
58
59
58
32
30
24
104
53
18
92
83
46
39
15
17
76
37
18
70
66
38
38
20
22
62
60
57
55
53
47
39
39
40
39
40
39
22
22
22
26
34
45
44
42
39
40
54
62
42
43
44
45
50
58
66
72
76
46
50
62
67
74
73
55
61
66
70
73
77
81
87
88
71
74
80
81
88
89
83
91
100
109
120
131
145
162
87
93
100
107
117
125
132
139
92
96
99
105
109
110
114
116
182
162
162
162
162
146
139
139
139
139
119
114
114
114
117
162
162
162
162
162
162
162
162
139
139
139
139
139
139
139
139
117
117
117
117
117
117
117
117
182
182
100
99
3
146
146
116
116
182
182
182
182
182
146
146
146
146
146
116
121
121
121
121
182
182
146
146
121
121
182
182
182
146
146
146
119
119
119
Includes items not shown separately.
Interest payable per acre on farm real estate debt.
Farm real estate taxes payable per acre (levied in preceding year).
*5 Monthly data are seasonally adjusted.
Percentage ratio of prices received for all farm products to parity index, on a 1910-14=100 base.
•7 Includes wartime subsidy payments.
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
277
92
83
67
58
64
75
88
92
93
78
77
81
93
105
113
108
109
113
115
110
100
101
107
100
92
89
84
83
82
85
81
80
79
79
78
75
79
78
77
78
77
77
78
78
78
78
78
76
78
77
76
75
75
74
75
74
75
76
75
75
TABLE B-75.—Farm production indexes, 1929-64
[1957-59=100]
Crops
Year
Livestock and products
Farm
outay
M e a t Dairy PoulOil
Toputi Total 2 Feed Hand
Food Vege- Fruits
try
and Cotani- prod- and
grains forage grains tables nuts
ton bacco crops Total* mals
ucts eggs
1929...
62
73
62
79
68
73
75
120
88
13
63
62
75
44
1930-.
1931...
1932...
1933...
1934...
61
66
64
59
51
69
77
73
65
54
56
63
73
56
33
66
72
74
69
64
74
79
63
47
45
74
75
76
73
80
73
92
75
76
71
113
138
105
105
78
95
89
58
80
63
14
14
13
11
13
64
65
66
67
61
63
66
67
70
59
76
78
79
79
78
45
44
44
44
41
1935...
1936...
1937...
1938...
1939...
61
55
69
67
68
70
59
81
76
75
60
38
67
65
65
82
66
75
81
75
55
54
74
77
63
81
75
82
81
81
90
70
93
84
96
86
101
154
97
96
76
68
91
80
110
21
16
18
22
29
59
63
62
65
70
53
60
58
63
71
78
79
79
81
82
41
44
44
45
48
1940...
1941...
1942...
1943...
1944...
70
73
82
80
83
78
79
89
83
88
66
71
81
74
78
86
86
93
91
90
69
79
83
72
88
83
84
89
97
92
93
99
98
84
98
102
88
105
93
100
84
73
81
81
113
34
37
56
60
50
71
75
84
91
86
72
76
87
97
88
84
89
92
91
92
49
54
62
71
71
1945...
1946...
1947—
1948--.
1949--
81
84
81
88
87
85
89
85
97
92
75
82
63
91
80
93
87
84
84
83
92
95
111
107
92
94
105
91
97
94
89
106
101
92
98
74
71
97
122
131
114
134
122
115
114
54
52
55
67
61
86
83
82
80
85
84
82
81
79
83
95
94
93
90
93
74
69
68
67
74
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
86
89
92
93
93
89
91
95
94
93
81
75
79
77
81
89
92
90
92
92
86
85
109
100
88
96
89
90
95
93
98
100
97
98
99
82
124
124
134
111
117
135
130
119
130
71
65
63
63
71
88
92
92
93
96
89
95
95
94
98
93
92
92
97
98
78
81
82
84
87
1955...
1956..1957.-.
1958...
1959-.
96
97
95
102
103
96
95
93
104
103
86
85
93
101
106
98
94
101
102
97
83
87
82
121
97
96
102
98
102
100
99
103
94
102
104
120
108
89
93
118
127
126
96
100
104
78
92
91
111
98
99
99
97
99
104
103
100
96
98
106
99
101
101
100
99
86
94
95
101
104
I960...
1961._.
1962...
1963-.
1964 *__
106
107
108
112
111
108
107
107
112
109
109
99
100
110
97
103
102
105
105
105
115
106
98
102
114
103
110
108
111
106
98
109
98
102
109
116
116
121
124
124
112
119
134
135
129
105
122
123
129
128
102
106
107
110
113
103
106
108
113
116
101
103
104
103
104
104
112
111
115
118
i Farm output measures the annual volume of farm production available for eventual human use through
sales from farms or consumption in farm households. Total excludes production of feed for horses and mules.
* Includes production of feed for horses and mules and certain items not shown separately.
' Includes certain items not shown separately.
* Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
278
TABLE B—76.—Selected measures of farm resources and inputs, 1929-64
Crops
harvested
(millions1
of acres)
Year
Exclusive of
use for
Total feed for
horses
and
mules
Index numbers of inputs (1957-59=100)
Livestock
breeding
units
(195759=
100)2
Manhours
of
farm
work
(billions)
Total
Farm
labor
MeFeed,
chani- Ferti- seed,
Farm
cal
and
lizer
real
power
live- Misceland
estate8 and
stock laneous
lime
mapurchinery
chases *
21
21
16
27
76
11
12
14
26
23
24
24
24
76
78
79
76
69
33
35
38
40
40
17
20
24
23
24
23
31
29
30
37
66
68
68
70
72
92
92
91
89
88
42
44
48
50
51
28
30
34
38
43
45
46
57
63
64
73
74
75
76
76
177
170
162
158
152
88
91
92
95
95
54
58
64
72
80
45
53
56
57
61
72
69
73
72
69
76
77
78
74
82
101
104
103
103
102
142
143
136
131
125
97
98
99
99
100
86
92
96
97
98
68
73
80
83
88
72
80
81
80
82
85
88
88
91
91
12.8
12.0
11.1
10.5
10.3
102
101
99
99
102
120
113
104
99
97
100
99
100
100
100
99
99
100
99
101
90
91
94
97
109
86
91
93
101
106
94
98
95
100
105
9.8
9.5
9.1
8.8
8.6
101
101
101
102
103
92
89
85
83
81
100
100
101
101
102
100
97
97
99
101
110
116
124
132
137
109
123
121
124
123
106
109
113
115
120
365
298
92
23.2
98
218
92
38
369
365
371
340
304
304
303
311
281
247
92
93
95
98
98
22.9
23.4
22.6
22.6
20.2
97
96
93
91
86
216
220
213
212
190
91
89
86
87
86
40
38
35
32
32
345
323
347
349
331
289
269
295
301
286
86
90
87
87
93
21.1
20.4
22.1
20.6
20.7
88
89
94
91
94
198
192
208
193
194
88
89
90
91
92
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
341
344
348
357
362
298
304
309
320
326
95
94
104
117
114
20.5
20.0
20.6
20.3
20.2
97
97
100
101
101
192
188
194
191
190
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
354
352
355
356
360
322
323
329
332
338
109
107
104
98
99
18.8
18.1
17.2
16.8
16.2
99
99
99
100
101
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
345
344
349
348
346
326
326
334
335
335
102
103
103
100
104
15.1
15.2
14.5
14.0
13.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
340
324
324
324
324
330
315
316
317
318
106
104
101
99
100
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 «
324
303
295
300
295
319
299
291
296
291
97
98
99
100
100
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
. .
. .
. .
* Acreage harvested (excluding duplication) plus acreages in fruits, tree nuts, and farm gardens.
» Animal units of breeding livestock, excluding horses and mules.
' Includes buildings and improvements on land.
< Nonfarm inputs associated with farmers' purchases.
»Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
279
TABLE B-77.—Farm population, employment, and productivity, 1929-64
Farm population
(April 1) i
Farm employment
(thousands)«
perNum- As
cent of
ber
total
(thou- popusands) lation
8
LiveCrop stock
proproduc- duction
Per
Per man-hour
tion
per
per
Family Hired unit
acre 4 breedTotal workers
of
workers total
Liveunit
input Total Crops stock
1929.
30,580
25.1
12,763
9,360
3,403
63
28
28
48
69
1931.
1932.
1933.
1934.
30,529
30,845
31,388
32,393
32,305
24.8
24.8
25.1
25.8
25.6
12,497
12,745
12,816
12,739
12,627
9,307
9,642
9,922
9,874
9,765
3,190
3,103
2,894
2,865
2,862
63
69
69
65
59
28
30
30
28
27
27
30
30
27
27
47
47
47
46
43
64
72
68
61
51
1935.
1936.
1937.
1938.
1939.
32,161
31,737
31,266
30,980
30,840
25.3
24.8
24.3
23.9
12,733
12,331
11,978
11,622
11,338
9,855
9,350
9,054
8,815
8,611
2,878
2,981
2,924
2,807
2,727
69
62
73
74
72
31
29
33
35
35
31
28
33
35
34
44
46
46
48
50
66
56
76
73
74
70
71
75
75
1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944.
30,547
30,118
28,914
26,186
24,815
23.1
22.6
21.4
19.2
17.9
10,979
10,669
10,504
10,446
10,219
8,300
8,017
7,949
8,010
7,988
2,679
2,652
2,555
2,436
2,231
72
75
82
79
82
36
39
42
42
44
37
39
43
41
44
50
51
56
58
56
76
77
86
78
83
75
80
81
78
75
1945.,
1946..
1947.
1948..
1949.
24,420
25,403
25,829
24,383
24,194
17.5
18.0
17.9
16.6
16.2
10,000
10,295
10,382
10,363
9,964
7,881
8,106
8,115
8,026
7,712
2,119
2,189
2,267
2,337
2,252
82
85
82
88
86
46
49
50
56
57
46
50
50
57
57
58
59
61
62
66
82
86
82
92
85
79
78
79
82
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
23,048
21,890
21,748
19,874
19,019
15.2
14.2
13.8
12.4
11.7
9,926
9,546
9,149
8,864
8,651
7,597
7,310
7,005
6,775
6,570
2,329
2,236
2,144
2,089
2,081
85
86
89
90
91
61
62
68
71
68
72
74
76
80
84
85
90
89
88
86
93
92
1955_
1956.
1957.
1958..
1959..
19,078
18,712
17,656
17,128
16,592
11.5
11.1
10.3
9.8
9.4
8,381
7,852
7,600
7,503
7,342
6,345
5,900
5,660
5,521
5,390
2,036
1,952
1,940
1,982
1,952
94
74
80
63
61
67
69
73
77
85
96
96
103
101
86
91
103
106
83
90
105
105
89
92
100
108
91
92
93
105
102
93
95
96
100
104
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963-_.
1964»_.
15,635
14,803
14,313
13,367
12,954
8.7
8.1
7.7
7.1
6.7
7,057
6,919
6,700
6,518
6,110
5,172
5,029
4,873
4,738
4,506
1,885
1,890
1,827
1,780
1,604
105
106
107
110
108
115
120
127
135
137
114
119
124
132
130
113
120
127
136
147
109
113
116
119
116
105
108
108
110
113
Year
Farm output
Index, 1957-59=100
70
70
» Farm population as denned by Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce, i.e., civilian
population
living on farms, regardless of occupation.
8
Total population of United States as of July 1 includes armed forces abroad and Alaska and Hawaii
beginning January and August 1959, respectively.
* Includes persons doing farm work on all farms. These data, published by the Department of Agriculture, Statistical Reporting Service, differ from those on agricultural employment by the Department
of Labor (see Table B-21) because of differences in the method of approach, in concepts of employment,
and in time of month for which the data are collected. For further explanation, see monthly report on
Farm Labor, September 10, 1958.
* Computed from variable weights for individual crops produced each year.
1
Preliminary.
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census).
280
TABLE B-78.—Comparative balance sheet of agriculture, 1929-65
[Billions of dollars]
Claims
Assets
Financial assets
Other physical assets
Beginning
of year
HouseProMahold DeposReal Other prieReal
chinInvest- Total estate
furTotal estate
tors'
U.S.
its
ery
ment
Live- and
debt debt equiCrops nishand savings in coings
stock motor
ties
cur- bonds operaand rency
tives
vehiequipcles
ment 8
48.0
6.6
3.2
47.9
43.7
37.2
30.8
32.2
6.5
4.9
3.6
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.0
2.5
2.2
33.3
34.3
35.2
35.2
34.1
3.5
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
2.2
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.2
33.6
34.4
37.5
41.6
48.2
5.1
5.3
7.1
9.6
9.7
94.0
103.3
116.2
127.5
134.2
53.9 9.0
61.0 9.7
68.5 11.9
73.7 13.3
76.6 14.4
131.6
150.4
165.5
162.5
159.1
75.3
86.6
95.1
96.5
95.0
162.7
166.8
174.7
182.5
198.7
199.4
199.6
208.1
215.8
223.0
230.5
1929
68.5
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
8
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
8
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965*
52.9
55.0
62.9
73.7
84.5
-
_
_
9.8
4.0
0.6
8
8
8
8
8
3.1
3.3
4.0
4.9
5.3
4.2
4.2
4.9
5.0
5.3
0.8
6.3
5.2
5.1
7.0
9.4
5.6
6.1
7.7
8.5
9.1
12.9
17.1
19.5
14.8
11.7
11.3
13.0
15.2
15.6
16.3
8.6
9.7
10.3
9.9
98.2
102.9
110.4
115.9
124.4
11.2
10.6
11.0
13.9
17.7
16.2
16.5
17.1
17.0
18.5
129.9
131.4
137.4
142.8
150.8
158. 5
15.6
15.5
16.4
17.2
15.7
18.6
18.2
18.6
19.5
19.8
9.6
9.4
9.1
8.5
7.7
53.9
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
52.9
55.0
62.9
73.7
84.5
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.0
5.4
42.9
44.6
52.4
63.7
75.6
94.0
103.3
116.2
127.5
134.2
4.9
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.3
85.7
95.3
107.7
118.2
122.8
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
131.6
150.4
165.5
162.5
159.1
5.6
6.1
6.7
7.2
7.7
119.2
137.3
150.8
146.4
142.2
10.0
10.5
10.0
9.9
9.8
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.6
162.7 8.2
166.8 9.0
174.7 9.8
182.5 10.4
198.7 11.1
145.1
148.0
155.3
162.1
175.0
9.6
8.9
9.1
8.7
8.4
4.1
4.3
4.6
4.8
5.1
199.4
199.6
208.1
215.8
223.0
230.5
174.5
173.4
179.4
184.0
188.1
192.7
12.1
12.8
13.9
15.2
16.8
18.7
1
Includes all crops held on farms for whatever purpose and crops held off farms as securitv for Commodity
Credit
Corporation loans. The latter on January 1,1964, totaled $912 million.
2
Revised to reflect farm population estimates based on definition of a farm in 1959 Census of Agriculture.
For
further
details of revision, see Agricultural Information Bulletin No. 870.
3
Not available.
4
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
281
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
TABLE B-79.—United States balance of payments, 7947-64
[Millions of dollars]
Imports of goods and
services
Exports of goods and services
Income on
investments
Year or
quarter
Total
Mer- Milichan- tary
dise^
Pri-
Addendum:
BalGoods
ance Remitand
on
tances
servMiligoods and
Other ices fiMer- tary Other and
pennanced Total chanex- serv- serv- sions
Gov- services
dise1 pend- ices
by
ernitures
Government
ment
grants
and
capital
194719481949-
16, 789 13,193
15,770 12,149
1,036
1,238
1,297
66 2,620
102 2,256
(10)
(10)
2,226
(10)
8,208 5,979
10,349 7,563
9,621 6,879
195019511952-.
1953-_
1954-_
13,807 10,117
18,744 14,123
,
17,992 13,319 ()
16,947 12,281 192
17,759 12,799 182
1,484
1,684
1,624
1,658
1,955
109
198
204
252
272
2,097
2,739
2,845
2,564
2,551
(10)
(10)
(10)
(10)
(10)
12,028 9,108
15,073 11,202
15,766
15,76610,838
16,561 10,990
15,931 10,354
576
1,270
2,054
2,615
2,642
2,344
2,601
2,874
2,956
2,935
1,779
3,671
2,226
386
1,828
-523
-457
-545
-617
-615
1955__
1956195719581959-
19,804 14, 280
23,595 17,379
" '" 19,390
16,264
23; 476 16,282
200
161
375
300
302
2,170
2,468
2,612
2,538
2,694
274
194
205
307
349
2,880
3,393
3,899
3,658
3,849
(10)
(10)
(10)
(10)
(10)
17,795 11,527
19,628 12;
804
5,804
20, 752 13,291
1,291
20,861 12,952
23,342 15,310
2,901
2,949
3,216
3,435
3,107
3,367
3,875
4,245
4,474
4,925
2,009
3,967
5,729
2,206
134
-585
-665
-702
-722
-791
19601961-.
1962_.
19631964"
27,044 19, 459
28,438 19,913
.
30,084 ~\
20,576
32,020 21.,989
36
36,004
24,680
335
402
656
659
720
2,911
3,464
3,850
349
380
471
498
528
3,990
4,279
4,531
4,905
5,299
2,239
2,687
2,908
3,338
3,363
!3,193 14,723
22,852 14,497
25,021 16,134
26,335 16,996
27,943 18,252
3,048
2,954
3,044
2,897
2,839
5,422
5,401
5,843
6,442
6,852
3,851
5,586
5,685
8,061
-672
-705
-738
-826
-825
19,737 16,015
4,777
455 1,774 11,529
799 1,987 6,440
621 2,121 6,149
-715
-617
-630
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962: I
II.
III
IV
28,920 20,128
30,536 20,1,948
30, 508 21.,152
30,372 20;),076
452
760
564
848
3,464
3,776
3,844
4,316
436
572
420
456
4,440
4,480
4,528
4,676
2,984
2,752
2,944
2,952
24,472 15,792
25,076 16,232
25,192 16,352
25,344 16,160
3,032
2,996
2,980
3,168
5,648
5,848
5,860
6,016
4,448
5,460
5,316
5,028
-748
-756
-708
-740
1963: I
II
III
IV
30,140 19,960
31,908 21
21,888
32
32,148
22,440
440
33,884 23,668
724
824
468
620
4,144
3,876
3,852
4,004
492
496
500
504
4,820
4,824
4,888
5,088
2,984
4,020
3,044
3,304
25,308 16,148
26,124 16,848
26,932 17, 472
26,976 17,516
2,988
2,924
2,844
2,832
6,172
6,352
6,616
6,628
4,832
5,784
5,216
6,908
-836
-836
-824
-808
1964: I
II
III
36,000 24,448
35, 356 24,144
36, 656 25,448
840 4,900
604 4,776
716 4,656
3,048 26,992 17,464 2,868 6,660
3,540 28,032 18,304 2,912 6,816
3,500 28,804 18,988 2,736 7,080
9,008
7,324
7,852
-788
-832
-856
524 5,288
528 5,304
532 5,304
See footnotes at end of table.
282
TABLE B-79.—United States balance of payments, 1947-64— Continued
[Millions of dollars]
U.S. private capital,
net
Year or
quarter
U.S.
Government
grants
and
Longcapi- Direct term Shorttal, invest- port- term
net 2 ment folio a
Changes in selected liabilities (decrease ( - ) ) •
Foreign
capital,
net*
Changes
in gold,
convertible currencies,
To
and
other j I M F
Special
foreign
gold
nonmarhold- tranche
ketable,
convert- Other ers * position
(increase
ible
bonds
())
and
notes
Selected
Errors Bal- special
and ance Govunre- on
erncorded regular ment
trans- trans- transaction;is actions actions i
To foreign
official holders *
1947.1948-.1949—
-6,121
-4,918
-5,649
-749
-721
-49
-189
-116
187
-75
-173
936
1,179
775
4,567
1,005
175
1950—
1951-..
1952- _
1953—
1954-_.
-3,640
-3,191
-2,380
-2,055
-1,554
-621
-508
-852
-735
-667
-495
-437
-214
185
-320
-149
-103
-94
167
-635
90
243
212
178
240
-21
477
601
339
173
-3,580
-305
-1,046
-2,152
-1,550
1,554
-505
1,237
848
1,043
268
843
224
48
27
1,758
-33
-415
1,256
480
1955—
1956—
1957—
1958—
1959---
-2,211
-2,362
-2,574
-2,587
-2,421
-241
-823
-1,951 - 6 0 3
-2,442 - 8 5 9
-1,181 -1,444
-1,372 - 9 2 6
-191
-517
-276
-311
-77
394
653
487
22
503 - 1 , 1 4 5
543 - 9 3 5
1,157
520
488 -3,529
412 - 4 , 1 7 8
435
559
1,130
20
735
1,248
404
674
625
502
1,460
182
-869
-1,165
2,292
1,035
1960—
1961—
1962—
1963-1964 ».
-2,781
-3,396
-3,547
-3,785
-3,469
-1,674
-1,599
-1,654
-1,888
-2,148
37
701
1,402
617
1,449
681
457
970
1,083
213
594
2,143
606
1,533
378
-1,025
-1,227
-1,685
-1,435
-1,348
-1,556
-553
-734
-2,069
341 - 7 7 2 - 3 , 9 1 8
622 -998 - 3 , 0 7 1
162 -1,111 - 3 , 6 0 5
311 - 3 3 9 - 3 , 2 6 1
420 - 5 3 3 ir
III.
IV1963:
I—
IIIII.
IV.
1964:
I.-_
IIIII i
-3,648
-3,368
-3,488
3, 684
-1,040 -1,560 -1,672
-1,784 - 1 , 2 1 2
484
-1,668 - 8 3 2
-584
-2,124 - 1 , 3 0 4
-440
144
-3,596 -2,472 - 2 , 1 8 4
-4,680
- 2 , 3 9 2 -2,248
940 - 1 , 2 1 2
-3,164
16
-3, 700 -2, 232 - 9 5 2
-3,092 -2,084
-2, 528
-3. 756 -2,284 - 1 , 0 5 2 -2,468
-3,560 -2,076 -2,344 -1,212
104
520
636
(10)
(10)
Quarterly totals unadjusted
- 2 8 -3,568
680
48 - 8 5 6 -1,984
12 -1,720 -3,672
- 9 2 -1,840 -5,196
-472
-96
1,068
-44
460 -1,1
228
702
(10)
(10)
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1962:
I
-3,315
- 1 , 736
-266
-1,252
731
91
144
56
584
618
-653
462
270
378
700
24
-458
-53
427
-164
881
389
-4,680
-5,256
-1,516
-1,592
108
19
226
264
350
152
175
25
-74
773
145
126
397
144
47
6
32
124
227
-5
-968
- 2 1 6 -2,764
- 7 0 4 -2,264
148
-39
4
122
203
-399
92
181
233
109
558
-51
303
70
1
Adjusted from customs data for differences in timing and coverage.
2 Includes associated Government liabilities and scheduled loan repayments.
Includes banking claims.
Other than liquid funds; includes miscellaneous Government nonliquid liabilities.
Includes official debt prepayments, advances on military exports, and net sales of those nonmarketable,
medium-term,
nonco.nvertible securities not associated with specific transactions.
6
Includes short-term official and banking liabilities and foreign holdings of U.S. Government bonds
and notes (other than nonmarketable, nonconvertible).
7 Central banks and governments.
8
Private holders; includes banks and international and regional organizations. Excludes those liabilities
to 9the International Monetary Fund which enter into calculation of U.S. gold tranche position.
Not reported separately.
i°
Not available.
11
Average of the first three-quarters based on seasonally adjusted data.
12
Preliminary.
3
4
5
NOTE.—Data exclude military grant aid and U.S. subscriptions to the I M F .
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
283
TABLE B-80.—United States merchandise exports and imports, by economic class, 1929-64
[Millions of dollars]
Merchandise exports
Total exports (including
reexports)
Year or month
Merchandise imports
InSeadusson- UnFood- trial
ally ad- Total1 stuff
matead- justed
rials
justed
Monthly average:
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935.
1937..
1938-
General
imports
Imports for consumption Merchandise
trade
surFin- SeaIn- Fin- plus
ished sonUn- To- Food- dus- ished
man- ally
adtrial manufac- ad- justed tals* stuffs mate- ufactures i justed
rials tures
Domestic exports
437
320
202
134
140
178
430
315
198
131
137
175
156
112
74
59
69
83
211
158
93
52
51
73
367
255
174
110
121
138
367
255
174
110
121
136
80
58
44
34
35
43
204
134
85
48
59
64
83
63
46,
28
27
29
70
65
28
24
19
40
190
205
279
258
265
187
202
275
255
260
86
89
117
92
95
83
96
135
127
139
171
202
257
163
170
202
251
163
190
53
61
71
48
50
83
102
134
80
103
34
39
46
35
37
19
3
22
95
72
1940..
1941..
1942-.
1943..
1944..
335
328
429
418
673
667
1,0
1,070
1,188 1,180
20
42
83
140
150
114
94
111
146
138
194
281
472
784
892
219
279
230
282
328
212
268
232
283
47
58
52
84
114
131
175
142
143
149
34
35
38
56
62
116
150
443
798
860
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
817
799
812
792
1,278 1,263
1,054 1,044
1,004
995
143
184
263
219
187
138
193
282
238
261
518
415
719
587
546
347
411
481
594
553
342
403
474
593
551
96
110
139
167
173
176
222
252
317
274
69
71
82
109
104
470
401
797
460
451
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953-.
1954..
833
822
,164 1,151
,100
,022 1J012
,071 1,060
116
190
175
143
131
251
34;
300
254
310
455
616
612
614
620
740
91
896
910
858
730
904
899
902
860
221
258
263
274
276
384
488
462
444
400
125
158
174
183
183
247
204
112
213
667
775
872
784
776
958
1,064
1,105
1,105
1,302
954
1,056
1,102
1,101
1,284
260
267
274
288
285
477
521
534
489
569
217
268
294
326
431
380
520
259
64
1,251 1,251
1,226 1,221
1,366 1,354
1,429 1,417
1,540 1,536
274
277
297
310
316
539
522
561
574
615
438
423
496
532
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959-.
191
444
625
364
1,180
1,432
1,611
1,351
1,352
162
216
208
198
210
351
441
530
368
366
1960.
1961..
1962.
1963.
,633
,679
,745
L,863
2,093
1,617
1,659
1,723
1,839
2,064
230
254
281
314
348
510
877
486
919
440 1,002
494 1,031
566 1,150
1964 «
See footnotes at end of table.
284
60J
453
379
434
553
TABLE B-80.—United States merchandise exports and imports, by economic class, 1929-64-
Gontinued
[Millions of dollars]
Merchandise exports
Year or month
Total exports (including
reexports)
Merchandise imports
Domestic exports
SeaIn- FinsonFood- dus- ished
Unally
ad- Total* stuffs* trial
ad- justed
mate- ufac-1
justed
rials tures
1963: Jan_.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June.
July.
Aug_
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec_
2,122
1,966
1,917
1,897
1,789
2,018
2,064
1, 972
2,079
1,783
944
1,994
2,037
1,945
2,054
1, 759
1,830 1,720 I, 1
1,901 1,817 1,793
Imports for consumption Merchandise
trade
surSeaInFin- plus
sonUnFood- dus- ished
ally
ad- Totals stuffs trial
ad- justed
mate- ufacjusted
rials tures
General
imports
140
322
347
360
375
279
237
525
501
469
513
463
1,117
1,386
1,463
1, 454
1,460
1,357
1,140
1,363
1,419
1,450
1,437
1,328
208
323
317
317
299
279
519
549
576
586
594
560
412 -104
491
625
526
479
547
500
544
477
489
368
1,503
461 944 1,.
518 992 1,508 1,458
500 962 1,450 1 , ; • " "
575 1,076 1,459 1,591
574 1,074 1,465 1,425
588 1,122 1,478 1,530
1,505
1,479
1,375
1,578
1,421
1,509
313
304
323
367
316
356
599
628
546
600
538
599
593
547
506
612
567
554
372
393
538
493
487
577
294
267
353
342
297
303
617
561
613
611
581
632
553
494
601
603
556
642
621
591
563
513
514
507
294
280
320
351
379
659
625
614
628
620
662
585
634
665
656
528
493
713
583
486
567
1,147
1,189
1,116
1,166
1,016
1,092
1,497
1,487
1,417
1,420
1,421
2,075
294
283
289
354
363
364
1964: Jan..
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
2,048
2,036
2,086
2,055
2,062
2,013
2.031
2,001
2,136
2,130
2,215
2,040
2,004
1,973
2,108
2,093
2,184
2,008
355
347
364
367
378
308
554
534
550
540
562
557
1.095 1,422 1,447 1,465
1,092 1,U5 1,338 1,322
1,193 1,523 1, 592 1,567
1,562 1,555
1 , '•'" 1,542
1,243 1,548 1, 458 1,434
1,1"* 1,506 1,596 1,577
July.
Aug.
Sept
Oct..
Nov.
2,118
2,085
2,271
2,134
2,184
2,046
1.897
2,085
2,255
2,183
2,020
1,869
2,058
2,226
2,158
294
308
348
367
390
515
569
638
615
1,134
1,045
1,141
1,221
1,154
1,773
1, 952 2,029
1,952 2,036
2,055 2,098
1,751
2,005
2,011
1,59(1
1,592
1,558
1,551
1,698
1,612
1,492
1,562
1,613
1,672
1,615
1,491
1,568
1,644
1,655
1
Starting with 1950, figures shown exclude Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military
equipment and supplies under tl - - • • •• --.. .
include shipments under special
Lease (1941-1947), Greek-Turkish
(1947-1948). Figures for 1948 and subsequent years also include Department of the Army civilian supply
shipments. Data for 1963 and 1964 were adjusted to include inadvertent omissions due to incomplete
transmittals of Shipper's Export Declarations from an individual Customs port which resulted in an undercounting.
2
The grant-aid military shipments excluded beginning with 1950 (see note 1 above) have been deducted
entirely from "Finished manufactures." Private relief shipments of foodstuffs are included in "Finished
manufactures" prior to 1941 and in "Foodstuffs" thereafter.
3 Data for 1947-1959 have been adjusted to include imports of uranium ore.
<5 "General imports" through 1932, "Imports for consumption" thereafter.
Preliminary, based on data for January-November.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of International Commerce.
757-981 O—65
285
TABLE B-81.— United States merchandise exports and imports, by area, 1959-64
l
[Millions of dollars]
JanuaryOctober
Area
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1963
Exports (including reexports): Total 2
Canada
Other Western Hemisphere
Western Europe
Soviet bloc 3
Other Europe
Asia
Australia and Oceania
Africa
General imports: Total
Canada
Other Western Hemisphere
Western Europe
Soviet bloc 3
Other Europe
Asia
Australia and Oceania
Africa
Unidentified countries 4
1964
15,926
18,892
19,143
19, 521
21,079
17,134
19,803
3,748
3,777
4,535
89
7
2,756
323
3,709
3,770
6,318
194
13
3,646
475
766
3,643
3,720
6,287
133
15
4,111
403
831
3,833
3,582
6,381
125
16
4,125
478
4,119
3,546
6,937
167
11
4,786
523
990
3,404
2,903
5,623
121
9
3,858
415
802
3,922
3,355
6,412
312
11
4,203
595
993
15,627
15,017
14,713
16,389
17,142
14,187
15,272
3,352
4,029
4,523
81
4
2,603
338
679
20
3,153
3,964
4,185
81
2
2,721
266
627
19
3,270
3,725
4,058
81
2
2,582
320
672
4
3,660
3,931
4,539
79
2
2,960
440
754
25
3,829
4,025
4,726
81
2
3,193
502
777
3,167
3,329
3,865
70
2
2,675
427
647
5
3,503
3,378
4,208
81
2
2,968
369
752
10
i Data for all periods have been adjusted to include imports of uranium ore and exports of uranium and
other nuclear materials. Imports from Canada and the Republic of South Africa have been adjusted for
all periods for such imports. Data on imports of uranium ore from other countries are not available prior
to 1961.
* Excludes special category items.
' U.S.S.R., Poland, Bulgaria, Rumania, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Albania, Estonia,
Latvia,
Lithuania.
4
Consists of certain low-valued shipments and uranium and thorium imports, not identifiable by country.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of International Commerce.
286
TABLE B-82.—Major U.S. Government foreign assistance, by type and by area, total postwt
period andfiscalyears 1960-64
[Fiscal years, billions of dollars]
Fiscal year
Total
International orFar East American ganizaand
Repub- tions and
unspeciPacific
lics
fied areas
East
Western Near
Europe (including
(excluding Greece
Other
and
Greece Turkey)
Africa
and and South
Turkey)
Asia
Total, net
Total postwar !
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 2
95.1
4.2
4.0
5.2
4.9
4.5
-
Investment in four international financial institutions *
Total postwar *
I9601961
1962
1963 2
1964
Under assistance programs, net
Total postwar J
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 2
_
_.
15.7
.8
.6
.3
.5
.2
5.5
.4
.1
...
33.3
2.0
1.7
16
1.7
1.2
24.0
-.3
—6
_
60.5
2.1
2 2
3.4
30
3.1
13.0
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.9
41.1
16
1.8
19
1.4
2.0
17.2
.2
.1
.1
6.9
.4
.6
.7
.6
.8
16.1
.1
6.2
-.4
-.7
-.1
-.7
-.2
4.5
.3
.4
.6
1.0
1.1
.5
—1
1.7
.3
.3
-
_
_
Net credits (including conversions)
Total postwar J _
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 2
Other assistance (through net
accumulation 5of foreign currency claims)
Total postwar *
I960 . .
1961
1962
1963
1964 2
5.6
.3
.4
1.0
.7
.5
5.3
.3
.4
.4
.4
.3
1.2
.1
I
.2
.1
.1
2.0
Net grants (less conversions)
Total postwar 1 _ _
23.9
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
.9
1.2
.1
.1
.2
.1
1
18.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
2.1
2.2
Other aid, net
Total postwar !
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 2
2.0
.2
.2
.4
.3
.5
39.7
,4
-.1
.4
-.1
.1
Net grants of military supplies
and services
Total postwar 1
._
18.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
2.1
2.2
93.9
41
3.9
51
4.8
4.4
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964 2
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964 2
39.7
.4
-.1
.4
-.1
.1
-.1
1.4
1.4
1.1
.3
.3
.4
.3
23.9
16
1.5
1.5
1.5
.9
5.6
.3
.4
1.0
.7
.5
10.7
.7
.7
.8
.7
.6
.9
.1
.1
.1
.1
1.9
.2
.2
.3
3
.5
13.2
.7
.8
.7
.8
.3
4.7
.2
.3
.9
6
.4
3.8
.2
.3
.2
.3
.2
1.3
.1
.2
.3
.3
.4
11.3
.7
.7
.6
.1
.3
1.5
.1
.1
.1
.2
.3
2.9
.1
.2
.2
.2
.2
1.6
2.9
.1
.2
.6
.4
.1
2
.2
.4
.3
.5
8
8
(4)
w
.5
(4)
.i
4
!i
.6
()
4.1
2
.3
.2
.3
.2
.4
U\
(*)
(*)
(*)
.4
(4)
(*)
.1
ll
3.4
.4
.4
.2
.2
.1
$
.4
(J)
(4)
.1
(4)
Y
(4)
.1
.3
.1
.1
.1
.5
.1
.1
.1
.1
i years 1946-64.
2
3 Preliminary.
Represents paid subscriptions to Inter-American Development Bank, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Development Association, and International Finance Corporation.
4
6 Less than $50 million.
Other assistance (net) represents the transfer of United States farm products in exchange for foreign
currencies, less the U.S. Government's disbursements of the currencies as grants, credits, or for purchases.
Also includes the foreign currency claims acquired by the Government as principal and interest collections
that are available for the same purpose as farm sales proceeds, since enactment of Public Law 87-128.
Source: Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
287
TABLE B—83.—Gold reserves and dollar holdings of foreign countries and international organizations,
1949, 1953, and 1959-64
[Millions of dollars; end of period)
1964
Area and country
Total
Continental Western Europe...
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Scandinavian countries
(Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland)
Spain
Switzerland
Other
United Kingdom
Canada
Latin America
Argentina
Brazil
Chile.
Colombia
Cuba.
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
Other
Asia
Japan
Other
All other countries
International and regional
1949
1953
1959
42,245
18,668
1960
1961
1962
1963
September^
46,332 2 49,561 52,541
55,396
57,215
23,797
561
1,582
3,114
6,509
3,459
1,800
25,063
783
1,542
3,747
6,412
3,627
1,830
26,879
904
1,791
4,659
6,885
3,147
1,965
27,454
950
1,821
5,100
6,438
3,226
1,967
1,443
780
3,801
1,504
1,670
974
3,731
19,248 21,094
630
539
1,279 1,314
1,980 2,165
4,640 6,450
3,119 3,080
1,634 1,783
92
818
733
149
570
370
9,920
249
915
1,204
1,224
821
981
394
132
2,067
740
169
2,174
1,139
157
2,991
1,018
328
2,957
1,269
470
3,518
1,317
624
3,658
773
1,443
1,679
1,460
1,515
1,523
2,027
3,204
3,827
4,887
4,930
4,561
1.516
3,072
412
510
101
138
463
270
82
236
517
343
2,509
3,679
504
425
122
236
570
345
104
338
597
438
3,610
4,014
393
479
228
288
296
587
111
242
932
458
3,770
3,533
420
483
180
237
79
541
114
232
800
447
4,163
3,556
426
514
153
236
44
612
132
238
820
381
4,446
2,008
305
2,865
918
4,008
1,531
2,477
4,446
2,137
2,309
1,703
1,947
1,313
1,251
679
1,105
6,225
7,351
3
4,418
s 1,962
2,456
1,436
4,295
4,492
3,411
272
430
178
206
16
630
152
282
807
438
5,036
2,487
2,549
1,577
4,624
4,077
453
329
186
232
12
810
215
284
992
564
4,558
4,169
386
330
224
227
10
809
271
280
1,077
555
5,590
2,748
2,842
6,081
2,852
3,229
1,764
1,887
1,906
8,260
8,176
8,423
3,268 3,616
7,261
Preliminary.
»Total dollar holdings include $82 million reported by banks initially included as of December 31, 1961, of
which $81 million reported for Japan.
NOTE.—Includes gold reserves and dollar holdings of all foreign countries (with the exception of gold
reserves of U.S.S.R., other Eastern European countries, and Communist China), and of international
and regional organizations (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Monetary Fund, Inter-American Development Bank, European Investment Bank and others). Holdings of
the Bank for International Settlements and the European Payments Union/European Fund and the Tripartite Commission for the Restitution of Monetary Gold are included under "other" Continental Western
Europe.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
1
288
TABLE B-84.—United States gold stock and holdings of convertible foreign currencies by U.S.
monetary authorities, 1949-64
[Millions of dollarsl
End of year or month
Total
Gold stock i
Total'
Treasury
Foreign
currency
holdings
1949
24,563
24,563
24,427
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
22,820
22,873
23,252
22,091
21,793
22,820
22,873
23,252
22,091
21,793
22,706
22,695
23,187
22,030
21,713
1955
1956
1957.
1958
1959
21,753
22,058
22,857
20,582
19,507
21,753
22,058
22,857
20,582
19,507
21,690
21,949
22,781
20,534
19,456
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 3
17,804
17,063
16,156
15,808
15,903
17,804
16,947
16,057
15,596
15,471
17,767
16,889
15,978
15.513
15,388
116
99
212
432
1963: Jan...
FebMar.
June.
16,102
16,023
16,078
16,046
16,009
15,956
15,974
15,891
15,946
15,914
15,854
15,830
15,928
15,878
15,878
15,877
15,797
15,733
128
132
132
132
155
126
July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec
15,764
15,725
15,788
15,910
15,780
15,808
15,677
15,633
15,634
15,640
15,609
15,596
15,633
15,582
15,582
15,583
15,582
15,513
87
92
154
270
171
212
1964: Jan..
Feb.
Mar.
AprMay.
June.
15,847
15,865
15,990
15,991
15,946
15,805
15,540
15,518
15,550
15,727
15,693
15,623
15,512
15,462
15,461
15,462
15,463
15,461
307
347
440
264
253
182
July.
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
15,840
15,890
15,870
15,702
16,324
15,903
15,629
15,657
15,643
15,606
15, 566
15,471
15,462
15,460
15,463
15,461
15, 386
15,388
211
233
227
96
758
432
1 Includes gold sold to the United States by the International Monetary Fund with the right of repurchase which amounted to $800 million on December 31, 1964.
2
Includes gold in Exchange Stabilization Fund.
' Preliminary.
Sources: Treasury Department and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
289
TABLE B-85.—Price changes in international trade, 1956-64
[1958=1001
1964
Area or commodity class
Area:
Developed areas:
Exports
Terms of trade 1
United States:
Exports
Terms of trade l
Undeveloped areas:
Exports
Terms of trade *
-
Wool
Minerals
Metal ores
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
100
97
103
100
100
102
100
103
101
104
101
105
102
105
103
104
101
100
100
101
102
101
102
103
105
103
107
103
106
104
104
104
104
104
100
100
100
97
111
111
107
105
100
100
115
116
111
109
100
100
138
101
111
100
100
105
106
101
106
102
103
103
100
114
109
123
129
105
-
Latin America:
Exports..
Terms of trade l
Latin America excluding petroleum
Exports
Terms of trade >
Commodity class: 3
Manufactured goods
Nonferrous base metals
Primary commodities: Total
Foodstuffs
Coffee, tea, cocoa
Cereals
Other agricultural commodities._...
Fats, oils, oilseeds
Textiles
1963
1962
Third
quarter
97
97
M02
104
2
95
2 105
2
105
95
99
111
101
114
102
110
102
109
103
110
104
139
100
97
97
95
94
100
101
100
100
100
93
83
97
90
72
98
90
70
103
103
73
102
103
87
104
113
105
126
144
100
100
100
100
105
100
98
106
107
94
104
108
103
97
105
107
99
89
101
106
103
95
112
127
104
98
113
125
103
107
100
100
94
97
93
92
100
92
92
96
95
106
1
2
Terms of trade indexes are unit value Indexes of exports divided by unit value indexes of imports.
Data are for second quarter.
> Commodity price indexes relate to exports.
NOTE.—Data shown for area groups and for manufactured goods are unit value indexes. All others
are price Indexes.
Data exclude trade of Soviet area and Communist China.
Sources: United Nations and Department of Commerce (Bureau of International Commerce).
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