Full text of Economic Report of the President : 1959
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Economic Report or the President Economic Report of the President TRANSMITTED TO THE CONGRESS JANUARY 20, 1959 UNITED STATES -GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1959 Additional copies of this report are for sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. Price of single copy, 75 cents. LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL THE WHITE HOUSE, January 20, 1959. To the Congress of the United States: I present herewith my Economic Report, as required by Section 3(a) of the Employment Act of 1946. In preparing this Report, I have had the advice and assistance of the Council of Economic Advisers. I have also had the advice of the heads of executive departments and independent agencies of the Government. I set forth below, largely in the language of the Report itself, what I consider to be its salient conclusions and recommendations. Economic Recovery in 1958 When the Economic Report was submitted to the Congress in January 1958, a contraction in production and employment that had started some six months earlier was still under way. The decline proved to be sharper than the 1953-54 recession, but it did not last as long. A recovery began in May 1958, and by the end of the year most of the ground lost had been regained. Gross national product, our broadest measure of the Nation's output of goods and services, was at an annual rate of $453 billion in the fourth quarter of the year. In dollars of constant purchasing power, this was almost equal to the highest output attained in the pre-recession period. Nearly a million more people were at work in December 1958 than in July, after allowance for seasonal changes. Although the number of persons unemployed was above 4 million in December, it was 1 million below the highest unemployment figure reached during the recession. Wage and salary income and consumer spending were at an all-time high, and the index of consumer prices had been virtually stable for six months, although about 2 percent higher than a year earlier. Economic Policies in 1957-58 The events of the last 18 months show again the considerable capacity of our economy to resist contractive influences and to hold a downturn within fairly narrow limits. Many factors contribute to this capacity. Chief among them are the industry and resourcefulness of our people, the strength and resiliency of our free competitive institutions, and the continuing operation in the American economy of powerful forces making for long-term growth. Also of importance are features of our economic system that moderate the impact of contractive influences on personal income, and thus help to in maintain demand. Increasingly, our people work in industries and occupations that are not readily affected by moderate economic declines. And such reductions in income as do result from lower production and employment are offset, to a considerable extent, by supplementary payments, notably by those made under the Federal-State system of unemployment insurance. Governmental actions also played an important role in moderating the recession and helping to bring about a prompt and sound recovery. Monetary and credit policies were employed vigorously to assure ample supplies of credit. Legislation was enacted to lengthen temporarily the period of entitlement to unemployment benefits. Numerous actions were taken to spur building activity. Steps were taken to accelerate Federal construction projects already under way and to speed up projects supported by Federal financial assistance. Activities under a number of Federal credit programs, in addition to those in the housing field, helped counter the recession. And the acceleration of defense procurement, which was being undertaken in line with national security policy, exerted an expansive effect. The 1957-58 recession shows that the major emphasis of Federal policies to counteract an economic downturn should be placed on measures that will act promptly to help shift the balance of economic forces from contraction to recovery and growth. Though an effective contribution can be made by the acceleration of public construction projects already under way, little reliance can be placed on large undertakings which, however useful they may be in the longer term, can be put into operation only after an extended interval. The 1957—58 experience is also a reminder that there is no simple prescription for corrective action which can be applied with only minor variations in every business downturn. It emphasizes the importance, in a situation in which powerful corrective forces are at work, of avoiding hasty and disproportionate actions, such as tax reductions that needlessly endanger the prospects of future fiscal balance and prejudice the orderly revision of the tax structure. As production, employment, and income moved upward in 1958, the economic policies of Government became increasingly concerned with keeping the recovery on a sound basis and promoting a sustainable long-term expansion. Monetary and credit policy was shifted with a view to limiting the expansion of bank credit to a sustainable pace. The large financing operations of the United States Treasury are being conducted with a view to enhancing the basic stability of our financial system and promoting sound economic growth. And the fiscal operations of Government are moving in the direction of restoring a balance between outlays and incomes and thereby countering potential inflationary tendencies. The Economic Outlook As 1959 opens, there is reason for confidence that the improvement in business activity which began in the second quarter of last year will rv be extended into the months ahead. Factors that influence decisions on business capital outlays have become more favorable, and an upturn in these expenditures may already be under way. Residential construction outlays should contribute further to economic expansion, especially if favorable action is taken by the Congress on recommendations made in the Report to provide a steadier and more assured flow of private funds into mortgages. Sales of United States products in foreign markets may increase as the pace of business activity abroad quickens and the trade position of primafy producing countries is improved. The combined outlays of Federal, State, and local government units will continue to rise. Under the impact of these developments, the liquidation of inventories should soon come to an end; indeed, the gap between current sales and stepped-up production schedules may already have been closed. The effect of these favorable factors on employment and income can be expected to enlarge the markets for consumer goods and thereby to reinforce the conditions making for over-all economic expansion. A Program for Economic Growth with Stable Prices Our objective must be to establish a firm foundation for extending economic growth with stable prices into the months and years ahead. This will not come about automatically. To attain our goal, we must safeguard and improve the institutions of our free competitive economy. These are basic to America's unassailable economic strength. We must wage a relentless battle against impediments to the fullest and most effective use of our human and technological resources. We must provide incentives for the enlargement and improvement of the facilities that supplement human effort and make it increasingly productive. Finally, an indispensable condition for achieving vigorous and continuing economic growth is firm confidence that the value of the dollar will be reasonably stable in the years ahead. Action to meet these challenges is required on many fronts, by all groups in our society and by all units of government. The individual consumer can play an important part by shopping carefully for price and quality. In this way the American housekeeper can be a powerful force in holding down the cost of living and strengthening the principle that good values and good prices make good business. Businessmen must redouble their efforts. They must wage a ceaseless war against costs. Production must be on the most economical basis possible. The importance of wide and growing markets must be borne in mind in setting prices. Expanding markets, in themselves, promise economies that help keep costs and prices in check. Leaders of labor unions have a particularly critical role to play, in view of the great power lodged in their hands. Their economic actions must reflect awareness that the only road to greater material well-being for the Nation lies in the fullest realization of our productivity potential and that stability of prices is an essential condition of sustainable economic growth. The terms of agreements reached between labor and management in wage and related matters will have a critical bearing on our success in attaining a high level of economic growth with stable prices. It is not the function of Government in our society to establish the terms of these contracts, but it must be recognized that the public has a vital interest in them. Increases in money wages and other compensation not justified by the productivity performance of the economy are inevitably inflationary. They impose severe hardships on those whose incomes are not enlarged. They jeopardize the capacity of the economy to create jobs for the expanding labor force. They endanger present jobs by limiting markets at home and impairing our capacity to compete in markets abroad. In short, they are, in the end, self-defeating. Self-discipline and restraint are essential if reasonable stability of prices is to be reached within the framework of the free competitive institutions on which we rely heavily for the improvement of our material welfare. If the desired results cannot be achieved under our arrangements for determining wages and prices, the alternatives are either inflation, which would damage our economy and work hardships on millions of Americans, or controls, which are alien to our traditional way of life and which would be an obstacle to the Nation's economic growth and improvement. The chief way for Government to discharge its responsibility in helping to achieve economic growth with price stability is through the prudent conduct of its own financial affairs. The budget submitted to the Congress for the fiscal year 1960, which balances expenditures with receipts at a level of $77 billion, seeks to fulfill this responsibility. If Government spending is held within the limits set in the proposed budget, the growth of our economy at the rate that may be expected would make it possible in the reasonably foreseeable future to provide, through a significant further step in tax reform and reduction, added incentives and means for vigorous economic growth and improvement. Governmental actions in other areas can also help to maintain price stability as our economy expands. The Congress will be requested to amend the Employment Act of 1946 to make reasonable price stability an explicit goal of Federal economic policy, coordinate with the goals of maximum production, employment, and purchasing power now specified in that Act. Steps will be taken within the Executive Branch to assure that governmental programs and activities are administered in line with the objective of reasonable price stability, and programs for the enlargement and improvement of public information on prices, wages and related costs, and productivity will be accelerated. The many continuing programs of Government that promote the expansion and improvement of our economy will be administered vigorously. Also, new legislation will be requested to strengthen competitive forces, to enhance personal welfare, to promote integrity in labor-management relationships and to foster better industrial relations, to assist local areas VI experiencing heavy and persistent unemployment, to make more effective use of the large Federal expenditures relating to agricultural price support, to promote conditions favorable to trade among nations, and to assist in the economic growth and development of the Free World. Favorable consideration of these legislative proposals by the Congress will materially help to achieve the goals of vigorous, orderly, and sustainable economic progress within a framework of reasonable price stability. All of our people, in view of their broad common interest in promoting the Nation's economic strength, can fully support this program. DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER. VII CONTENTS Page CHAPTER 1. The Lessons of Recession and Recovery in 1957-58. . . The Economy's Capacity To Resist Recession Policy Implications of Differences Among Economic Cycles.... Achieving Vigorous and Sustainable Economic Growth CHAPTER 2. Economic Developments in 1958 and Outlook for 1959 . Extent of the Decline Major Factors in the Decline Resistance to Contraction Prices and Costs Resumption of Economic Expansion Developments in World Production and Trade Outlook for 1959 CHAPTER 3. Economic Policies in 1958 Policies During the Contraction 1 1 3 4 7 7 10 14 17 20 27 30 33 33 Money and Credit Housing and Home Financing Unemployment Insurance Benefits Defense Procurement Civil Procurement and Construction Acceleration of Grants-in-Aid and Tax Refunds Federal-Aid Highway Program Federal Credit Programs Federal Fiscal Operations Policies After the Upturn CHAPTER 4. A Program for Economic Growth With Price Stability. A Balanced 1960 Budget Other Governmental Financial Policies Additional Governmental Actions To Maintain Price Stability. Additional Measures for Economic Growth Competition Small Business Personal Welfare Area Assistance Agriculture Foreign Economic Policy 33 37 40 40 41 41 42 42 42 44 48 49 51 52 53 53 54 55 56 56 57 IX CHAPTER 4—Continued Continuing Programs for Economic Growth and Improvement. Education Personal Security and Health Construction and Transportation Water Projects and Mineral Exploration Research and Development Page 59 60 60 61 62 63 APPENDIXES A. Summary of Recommendations in the Economic Report of the President B. Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of Economic Advisers During 1958 C. Some Major Economic Developments in 1958 I. Employment and Earnings II. Prices III. Agriculture IV. Financial Developments V. Government Finances VI. United States Foreign Trade and Payments D. Statistical Tables 65 71 79 81 91 98 106 114 122 133 LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS (Chapters 2 and 3 and Appendix C) Tables 1. Duration and Extent of Declines in Selected Economic Indicators. 2. Changes in Income ahd Consumption in Recessions 3. Obligations and Payments on Federal-Aid Highway Programs, 1957-58 '....." 4. Federal Budget Receipts and Expenditures, Fiscal Years 1957-60. C-l. Changes in Nonagricultural Employment Since December 1956 C-2. Civilian Employment, by Major Occupational Group, 1947, 1957, and 1958 C-3. Insured Unemployment Under State and Federal Employee Programs, April 1957 and April 1958 C—4. Index of Average Hourly Earnings, Adjusted for Overtime and Inter-Industry Employment Shifts, Selected Periods, 1948-58 C-5. Distribution of Employees Receiving Wage Increases Under Major Labor Agreements, 1956-58 C—6. Changes in Wholesale Price Indexes Since June 1955 7 16 42 43 82 83 86 88 89 95 Tables C-7. G-8. C-9. C-10. C-ll. C-12. C-13. C—14. C-15. C-l 6. C-l 7. C-l8. C-l 9. C-20. C-21. C-22. C-23. C-24. C-25. C-26. Page Changes in Consumer Price Indexes Since July 1957 Price Changes in the United States and Selected Other Industrial Nations, 1953 to 1957 Number of Farms and Average Income of Farm Families, 1947 and 1952-56 Meat and Poultry: Prices, Receipts, Production, and Consumption, 1952-58 Net Budget Expenditures for Agricultural Programs, Fiscal Years 1953-60 Wheat: Production, Utilization, and Carryover, 1952-58.. Feed Grains: Production, Utilization, and Carryover, 1952-58 Changes in Short- and Intermediate-Term Consumer Credit Outstanding, 1955-58 Net Changes in Commercial Bank Holdings of Loans and Investments, 1955-58 Net Changes in Ownership of the Publicly Held Federal Debt During 1958 Flow of Funds for Selected Nonbank Financial Institutions, 1955-58 Federal Budget Expenditures, 1957-60 Relation Between the Federal Budget Surplus or Deficit, Receipts from and Payments to the Public, and Change in the Public Debt, 1953-59 Consolidated Cash Statements of Federal and State and Local Governments, 1953-58 Government Receipts and Expenditures as Shown in the National Income Accounts, 1957-58 United States Balance of Payments, Selected Periods, 1952-58 Exports of the United States and Other Countries, 1956-58 . . Change in United States Exports, 1956 to 1958 Change in United States Imports, 1956 to 1958 Use of Gold and Dollars for International Settlements, Selected Periods, 1952-58 96 97 99 101 103 103 104 107 110 110 Ill 114 117 119 120 122 123 124 126 130 Charts 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Changes in Major Sectors of the Nation's Output, Third Quarter 1957 to First Quarter 1958 Changes in Major Sectors of the Nation's Output, First Quarter 1958 to Fourth Quarter 1958 Manufacturing Capacity, Production, and Prices Consumer Prices on a Prewar Base Consumer Prices on a Recent Base Wholesale Commodity Prices XI 8 9 11 17 18 19 Charts Page 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. Employment in Nonagricultural Establishments Employment, Hours, and Earnings in Manufacturing Employment, Production, and Income Foreign Industrial Production World Trade Interest Rates and Bond Yields Member Bank Reserves Money Supply Housing Starts and Requests for Federal Underwriting Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures, National Income Accounts 17. Stock Prices and Credit XII 21 23 24 28 29 34 35 37 39 43 45 Chapter 1 The Lessons of Recession and Recovery in 1957-58 TTTTHEN THE ECONOMIC REPORT was submitted to the Congress * * in January 1958, the American economy was in a recession that had started about six months earlier. The decline was still moderate, but it was gaining momentum and spreading to additional areas of the economy. The Economic Report gave an account of the recession as it had developed to the turn of the year, and expressed the view that the underlying strength and regenerative powers of our free competitive system, supported by appropriate private and public policies, might be expected to bring the decline to an end soon and to restore the economy to an upward path. The recession did, in fact, halt in April 1958. By May, a recovery was under way; and before many months had passed, most of the ground lost during the decline had been regained. As 1958 ended, we were moving toward new high levels of production and employment. The present Economic Report therefore reviews the greater part of a full economic cycle. Chapter 2 describes the extent of the contraction and how it started, what helped to keep it within narrow limits, how recovery began and developed, and what the economic situation was at the end of the year. Chapter 3 summarizes the Government actions that helped to shorten the decline, to reduce the severity of its impact, and to promote a sound recovery. And Chapter 4 proposes a program for promoting economic growth on a sustainable, inflation-free basis. These major divisions of the Report are-presented in fulfillment of the explicit requirements of the Employment Act of 1946. But it is useful also to consider what broad lessons may be learned from the events of the past year and a half as guides for the future. What do these events tell us about how our economy responds to contractive influences, about the role that Government can usefully play in seeking to moderate economic fluctuations, and about the problems that Americans must face in the years ahead in striving to achieve high and sustainable rates of economic growth, unmarred by inflation? These questions are treated in the present chapter. THE ECONOMY'S CAPACITY TO RESIST RECESSION In many respects, the most important lesson taught by the recent recession is that a competitive economic system has remarkable power to resist contractive pressures and, without an extended interruption of growth, to stage a good recovery. The inherent features of our economy that make this possible—its strength and resiliency—are due mainly to our free competitive institutions, to the stability of our institutions of saving, banking, and finance, and to the character of our people, notably their industry and resourcefulness and their capacity to take a confident and balanced view of the Nation's economic prospects. Other sources of strength are due to certain long-term, structural changes in our economy—which have resulted in growing percentages of American workers being employed in industries and occupations not readily affected by an economic downturn—and to certain changes in business practices, notably long-term planning for the enlargement of operations. Our economy is also aided in resisting recession by features that tend to moderate the impact of a decline in economic activity on the flow of income to individuals and thus on the volume of spending for consumption. The most important of these is the Federal-State unemployment insurance system, under which payments are made to individuals out of work. In addition, our system of graduated personal income taxes cushions the impact of an over-all decline in income on the amounts available for spending on consumer goods and for savings. These features of our economy, which were clearly evident in the 1957-58 recession, have certain implications for public policy that are worthy of special note. First, the capacity of our economy to withstand contractive influences provides time for regenerative processes to make the adjustments needed for sound recovery, and for the counteractive measures taken by Government, jointly with factors making for long-term growth, to make their effects felt. Where necessary, efforts should be made to strengthen these features of our economic system. Second, the major emphasis of Federal countercyclical policy should be placed on measures that will result in prompt action to help promote a shift in the balance of economic forces from contraction to recovery and growth. Though a useful contribution can be made by the acceleration of public works projects that are already under way or are ready to be started, little reliance can be placed on large undertakings which, however useful they may be in the longer term, can be put into operation only after an extended interval of planning. By the time they are fully under way, they may exert excessive demand on an economy that has already recovered. Third, in contrast to large-scale public works, monetary and credit policy, used vigorously, can produce prompt and significantly helpful results. Although the easing of credit does not affect all parts of the economy to the same degree, it works broadly, is promptly reversible, and makes its impact felt without entailing direct governmental intervention in the affairs of business concerns and individuals. Finally, the capacity to resist short-term fluctuations can be increased by Government actions to strengthen the factors that make for long-term economic growth—vigorously competitive markets, research and develop- ment activity, and heightened incentives for all Americans to work, save, and invest. It is on these factors that we depend most heavily for the thrust that lifts the economy from recession to recovery and for the stimulus to continuing economic expansion and improvement. POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENCES AMONG ECONOMIC CYCLES Although all economic cycles have certain common characteristics, each is unique in character and follows a course that varies in significant respects from its predecessors. These distinctive characteristics must be taken into account when governmental policies intended to help reverse a recessionary trend are formulated. The need to do this was especially evident in the 1957—58 recession. It had been preceded by a major expansion in productive capacity without a corresponding increase in utilization, so that when the downturn began there was ample, if not temporarily excess, capacity in a number of important industries. In contrast, the expansion of capacity prior to the 1953 downturn had been matched by a roughly equivalent increase in production. Similarly, the American consumers' requirements for a broad range of goods were more nearly satisfied when business activity turned down in 1957 than they had been when activity began to recede in 1953. Sales of automobiles reached an exceptionally high level in 1955, aided by a sharp easing of instalment credit terms. In 1953-54, production of Western European nations was expanding rapidly, world commodity prices were relatively stable, and international trade was continuing to rise. In 1957-58, on the other hand, industrial activity in Western Europe tended to level off, commodity prices weakened, and international trade turned downward for the time being. These differences naturally affected the character and extent of the recent decline. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, which had fallen only 11 percent in 1953-55, dropped 22 percent in 1957-58. Total consumer expenditures were virtually stable in both periods; but in the nine months following the 1957 peak, automobile production fell 47 percent, compared with an 11 percent decline following the economic downturn in 1953. Merchandise exports, which had increased 18 percent in 1953-54, fell by about that amount in the 1957-58 recession. But from the viewpoint of public policy, the most significant difference between the two periods was in Federal fiscal operations. In the three quarters following the 1957 peak of activity, Federal purchases of goods and services increased $1 billion, measured on an annual rate basis; in the comparable period of 1953-54, they fell $6 billion, largely as a result of the termination of the Korean conflict. This critical difference was accentuated by the fact that, although State and local government purchases of goods and services were rising in both recessions, they rose more in 1957-58 than in 1953-54. It was clear in January 1958 that even without a general tax reduction the fiscal operations of the Federal Government would have a significantly more expansive effect on the economy than they had had during the 1953-54 recession, notwithstanding the tax cut of $7.5 billion in early 1954. As it turned out, the economy received an even larger stimulus from Federal fiscal operations in the fiscal year 1958 than had been expected at first. And this effect has been intensified in the fiscal year 1959. These facts are a reminder that there is no single prescription for corrective action which can be applied with only minor variations in every cyclical episode. They emphasize the importance, in a situation in which powerful corrective forces are already at work, of avoiding hasty and disproportionate actions, such as tax reductions that needlessly endanger the prospects of future fiscal balance and prejudice the orderly revision of the tax structure. Clearly, the distinctive features of a downturn are pertinent not only to an appraisal of the probable course of business activity as contraction develops but also to the design of measures to help stem the downturn and promote recovery. ACHIEVING VIGOROUS AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH We may justifiably take satisfaction in the increases already achieved in employment, production, and incomes and in the. fact that the price level has been reasonably steady of late. Our objective now must be to establish a firm foundation for extending this economic advance and price stability into the months and years ahead. But this will not come about automatically. On that point, history is clear. Action is required on many fronts, by all groups in our society, and by all units of government. First, we must zealously safeguard and improve the institutions of our free and competitive economy. America's unassailable economic strength derives in no small measure from the fact that over the years there have been incentives and freedom to do new things and to challenge old and established ways. Our strength comes in large part from the pressures which this competition entails, pleasures to shelter groups from these pressures and from the need to make the readjustments that they compel come at the cost of limiting our capacity to grow. Second, a high rate of growth in our economy requires that we wage a relentless battle against impediments to the full and most effective use of our human and technological resources. Such impediments curb the productivity of our work force and increase production costs. They raise the prices of the things we buy and limit the success of our efforts to lift levels of living. Third, if we are to achieve a rapid rate of economic growth and improvement in the years ahead, we must continue to enlarge and improve the plant and equipment that supplement human effort and make it increasingly productive. There must be strong incentives for businesses to commit ever larger sums for expanding their operations and reducing their costs. And there must also be incentives for the thrift essential to the financing of these critically important outlays. Policies that weaken these incentives will cause us to fall short of achieving our full potential for expansion. Finally, an indispensable condition for achieving vigorous and continuing economic growth is firm confidence that the value of the dollar will be reasonably stable in the years ahead. In recent months, prices generally have moved within a narrow range, and some of the price increases early in the year were the result of temporary conditions, such as the effect of adverse weather on food supplies. But these facts provide no basis for complacency regarding the long-term problem of maintaining reasonably stable prices. Despite recession during the first part of the year, wage rates continued to move upward. The rate of increase was nearly as great as in periods of economic expansion, and higher than the rate at which gains in productivity have been achieved in our economy over extended periods of time. Obviously, if we have only limited success in restraining increases in unit costs during recession, much remains to be done to achieve a basis for holding prices reasonably steady when productive capacity is more fully utilized. To this challenge everyone must respond. The individual consumer can play an important part by shopping carefully for price and quality. In this way, the American housekeeper can be a powerful force for holding down the cost of living and strengthening the principle that good values and good prices make good business. Businessmen must redouble their efforts. They must wage a ceaseless war against costs. Production must be on the most economical basis possible. The importance of wide and growing markets must be borne in mind in setting prices. Expanded markets, in themselves, promise economies that help keep costs and prices in check. Leaders of labor unions, in view of the great power lodged in their hands, have a particularly critical role to play. Their economic actions must reflect awareness that stability of prices is an essential condition of sustainable economic growth and that the only road to greater material well-being for the Nation lies in the fullest possible realization of our productivity potential. This requires not only that our resources be fully employed, but that arbitrary restraints on their most effective utilization be removed. We can realize more from our economy only to the extent that we produce more. It is not the function of Government in our society to establish the terms of contracts between labor and management; yet it must be recognized that the public has a vital interest in these agreements. Increases in money wages and other compensation not justified by the productivity performance of the economy are inevitably inflationary. They impose severe hardships on those whose incomes are not enlarged. They jeopardize the capacity of the economy to create jobs for the expanding labor force. They endanger present jobs by limiting markets at home and impairing our capacity to compete in markets abroad. In short, they are, in the end, self-defeating. Self-discipline and restraint are essential if agreements consistent with a reasonable stability of prices are to be reached within the framework of the 489916 O—59- free competitive institutions on which we rely heavily for the improvement of our material welfare. If the desired results cannot be achieved under our arrangements for determining wages and prices, the alternatives are either inflation, which would damage our economy and work hardships on millions of Americans, or controls, which are alien to our traditional way of life and which would be an obstacle to the Nation's economic growth and improvement. Government also has a vitally important part to play in helping to prevent inflationary developments. First, through the management of its fiscal affairs, it can help to create an environment favorable to the achievement and maintenance of price stability. Second, to the extent consistent with other national objectives, it must strive to operate those Government programs that directly affect costs and prices in a way that will contribute to over-all price stability. Third, it must lose no opportunity, through revisions of its tax structure or by other means, to promote improvements in productivity and to provide greater incentives for economic expansion. Numerous elements in the program recommended to the Congress in Chapter 4 of this Report are concerned explicitly with establishing a more secure basis for the price stability essential for orderly economic expansion. Other parts of the program, though immediately directed to other goals, will also further this objective. All of our people, in view of their broad common interest in economic growth, can fully support this program. Chapter 2 Economic Developments in 1958 and Outlook for 1959 ^TER A SHARP but brief contraction starting in the third quarter of A 1957, economic activity turned upward in the second quarter of 1958. Signs that the recession was being reversed began to appear early in May and, once started, the recovery spread rapidly through the economy. By the end of the year most of the ground lost during the contraction had been regained. The index of industrial production was 142 percent of the 194749 average, compared with the peak of 146 in 1957; total employment had increased by about 1 million from its recession low; unemployment had been reduced by approximately the same amount; and the income and expenditures of individuals were at new high levels. Gross national product, our broadest measure of the Nation's output of goods and services, had risen to an annual rate of $453 billion. Expressed in dollars of constant purchasing power, this represented an output of goods and services about equal to the peak reached in 1957. EXTENT OF THE DECLINE Measured by the duration and extent of declines in employment, production, and income, the 1957-58 recession may be regarded as a moderate one by the standards of earlier experience (Table 1). The Nation's total output TABLE 1.—Duration and extent of declines in selected economic indicators Percentage change l Duration (months) Period Nonagricultural employment Total (Census) 1929-33 1937-38 1948-49 1953-54 . 1957-58 ... 43 13 11 13 9 (33) () -0.7 -2.5 -1.7 Wage and salary workers (BLS) » -30.7 -10.0 -4.1 -3.4 -4.4 Industrial production -50.8 -32.3 -7.7 -9.6 -12.4 Personal income -49.8 -11.2 -3.4 -. 1 -.9 1 Percentage change from cyclical peak to cyclical trough (3-month centered averages), based on seasonally adjusted data. 2 In nonagricultural establishments. See Table D-22, footnote 1, for explanation of differences between this series and the Bureau of the Census series. 3 Xot available. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, Department of Labor, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Council of Economic Advisers. CHART 1 Changes in Major Sectors of the Nations Output Third Quarter 1957 to First Quarter 1958 State and local spending and consumer outlays on nondurables and services helped offset declines in business investment, exports, and consumer spending on durables. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES -30 -20 -10 0 +10 TOTAL G N P CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT-I/ CONSUMER EXPENDITURES FOR DURABLE GOODS NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES FEDERAL PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION CONSUMER EXPENDITURES FOR NONDURABLE GOODS AND SERVICES STATE AND LOCAL PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES -30 -20 -10 I + 10 U PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT AND NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION. SOURCE*. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. CHART 2 Changes in Major Sectors of the Nation's Output First Quarter 1958 to Fourth Quarter 1958 Changes in inventory investment and purchases by consumers and by government were major factors in the GNP increase. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES - 10 0 +10 +20 +30 + 10 + 20 + 30 TOTAL GNP CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT-!/ CONSUMER EXPENDITURES FOR DURABLE GOODS NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES FEDERAL PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION CONSUMER EXPENDITURES FOR NONDURABLE GOODS AND SERVICES STATE AND LOCAL PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES I -10 -V PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT CONSTRUCTION. AND NONRESIDENTIAL SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. of goods and services, adjusted for changes in prices, fell about 5*/2 percent between the third quarter of 1957 and the first quarter of 1958. Industrial output decreased more sharply, which is typical of economic contractions; over a period of eight months, it decreased 13 percent. Employment in manufacturing industries began to decline in January 1957, slowly for six or seven months and then more rapidly. By May 1958, one month after what is commonly regarded as the low point in general business activity, a decline of 11 percent had been recorded. Reductions in nonfarm employment outside of manufacturing were smaller. Unemployment began to rise in the third quarter of 1957 and fluctuated around 5 million in the spring and summer of 1958. Lower employment naturally meant a reduction in the incomes received by individuals. Total wage and salary payments fell 3/2 percent between July 1957 and April 1958. The drop in total personal income, on the other hand, was only 1 percent. These broad measures tend to obscure the fact that economic fluctuations characteristically affect some parts of the economy more severely than others. The recent recession was no exception in this respect. Production of nondurable goods declined very little, and the output of the service industries actually increased. On the other hand, production of consumer durable goods fell 27 percent from July 1957 to April 1958; the output of steel and of machinery fell 40 percent and 21 percent, respectively; and the production of automobiles in April 1958 was about 40 percent below what it had been in the same month of 1957. The pace of the decline was also uneven. The downturn was preceded by a slowing in the rate of growth of the economy, and for the first few months the rate of contraction was relatively moderate. However, it tended to accelerate in the early months of 1958, with the result that a large proportion of the total decline was compressed into a period covering less than half of its full duration. By the end of March the decline was abating, and by May indications of a general improvement began to appear. The signs of recovery, which multiplied quickly, were confirmed before long by a sustained upturn, and the recession may now be regarded as having ended in April. MAJOR FACTORS IN THE DECLINE Early in 1957, changes in several economic sectors, developing at the same time mainly by coincidence, tended to sap the vigor of the expansion then in progress. Each exerted a growing downward pressure on production and employment, and ultimately their joint effect was to tip the balance, around midyear, toward a general reduction in economic activity (Chart 1). The major developments were the decrease in the volume of incoming business of the capital goods industries and reduced appropriations by manufacturing businesses for their investment expenditure programs. By the end of 1957, these early signs were confirmed by lower expenditures of business concerns on machinery, equipment, and new facilities. Throughout 10 CHART 3 Manufacturing Capacity, Production, and Prices Manufacturing capacity rose in 1956-58 relative to production INDEX, 1 9 5 3 = 100 140 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY-!/ V 120 100 1953 1954 1956 1955 1957 1958 . . and prices of capital goods rose relative to the prices of other products. INDEX, 1953 = 100 140 120- 100 Q Q I 1 I I I I II 1953 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I |I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I II 1954 1955 1956 1957 -!•/ END OF Y E A R . & SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. SOURCES: Me G R A W - HILL PUBLISHING COMPANY, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AND E. H. BOECKH AND ASSOCIATES. II 1958 most of 1957, financing for expansion programs was becoming more costly. Corporate liquidity was low, and instances of capital issues being postponed because of unfavorable financing conditions increased. Clearly, financial considerations were exerting a progressively greater influence on businesses to restrict their commitments for further expansion of their facilities. A more basic factor affecting the capital expansion programs of businesses was the widening gap between the supply and use of industrial capacity. In manufacturing alone, spending on new plant and equipment between 1953 and 1957 had increased capacity by about one-fourth, but production had increased by only 7 percent. At the same time, the cost of new capacity, as reflected in the prices of industrial equipment, rose substantially more than the prices of industrial output (Chart 3). Pressure to curtail the capital improvement and expansion programs of businesses mounted rapidly. By the second quarter of 1958, outlays for these purposes had dropped $7.4 billion, on an annual rate basis, from the peak reached three quarters earlier. This sharp decline was a major factor in initiating the general economic contraction. A similar though lesser impact on business activity resulted from a reduction in merchandise exports. These had risen at a particularly rapid rate in 1956 and early 1957, and in the first quarter of the latter year they were 60 percent higher than in 1954. The decline that began in the second quarter of 1957 persisted through the first quarter of 1958, when the volume of exports stabilized some 20 percent below the level a year earlier. Initially, the decline occurred largely in wheat, cotton, and petroleum, but it soon spread to exports of metals, machinery, and manufactured goods generally. The rising volume of exports in 1956 and early 1957 had helped to maintain an upward trend in our economy at a time when domestic investment demands were beginning to level off. The disappearance of the special factors accounting for this surge in foreign sales coincided with the decline in investment outlays of business concerns, and reinforced this downward pressure on economic activity. The Suez crisis that had led earlier to unusually heavy petroleum shipments subsided. Shipments of cotton and other agricultural products, which had been exceptionally large during the second half of 1956 and the first half of 1957, declined. Economic activity in certain industrialized countries of Western Europe and in Japan ceased to increase, following a prolonged period of expansion; and, in view of their large stocks of imported materials, these countries reduced their demands on the productive capacity of the United States. Industrial contraction in Canada resulted in smaller United States exports to that important market, and some of the less developed countries of the world curtailed imports, because of a weakening in their terms of trade and foreign exchange positions. The drop in our shipments abroad, occurring at a time when our imports were declining very little, meant a decrease in net exports of goods and 12 services of about $4 billion on an annual rate basis from the first half of 1957 to the first half of 1958. Obligations by the Department of Defense for major procurement and production items, which had risen in the second and third quarters of 1956 to an annual rate of about $18.2 billion, were being made at a $10.6 billion rate in the same period of 1957, but actual expenditures changed much less, and only after some time lag. The annual rate of purchases of goods and services for national defense declined from $44.9 billion in the second and third quarters of 1957 to $43.9 billion in the fourth quarter; but since Federal expenditures for nondefense programs increased, total expenditures in the fourth quarter declined only $600 million. Additional nondefense expenditures caused a rise in the total for the first quarter of 1958. Subsequently, however, both defense and nondefense spending increased, and total expenditures in the fourth quarter reached $53.8 billion. Meanwhile, the rise in expenditures of State and local government units continued. As a result, total expenditures for goods and services by all units of government—Federal, State, and local—increased throughout the recession. In the first quarter of 1958, they were 3 percent higher than they had been six months earlier. Finally, although the aggregate of consumer spending changed very little, large and important shifts occurred in the amounts spent on different groups of goods. Purchases of consumer durable goods moved irregularly in the first three quarters of 1957, then dropped sharply in the next six months. In the first half of 1958, they were 11 percent less than in the third quarter of 1957, and approximately four-fifths of the decline was accounted for by reduced purchases of automobiles. Sharp cuts in consumer purchases of durable goods are by no means unprecedented in recession, but the 1957-58 decline was unusually large in view of the small reduction—about 1 percent—in the amount of income available to consumers after payment of taxes. These largely independent changes in demand—lower rates of spending by businesses on new plant and equipment, smaller exports, briefly and slightly reduced purchases by the Federal Government, a lower rate of contract placement, and reduced expenditures by consumers for durable goods—led to a change in the inventory policies of business concerns. This change was a major factor in the decline. From 1955 to mid-1957, business inventories were increased substantially. To a considerable extent this represented the rebuilding and enlargement of stocks of materials, work in process, and finished products that are a normal part of any expansion period. The rate of inventory accumulation slackened noticeably in the first three quarters of 1957, however, as uncertainties about future sales and prices emerged and as the financing of inventories became more costly and difficult. But the major change did not come until the final quarter of the year. Business concerns then curtailed their production schedules sharply below the rate at which they were making sales, and by the first quarter of 1958 inventories were being reduced at the rate of $9.5 billion per year. Thus, a rather common feature of economic fluctuations in an enterprise economy was repeated: a moderate decline in the pace of actual sales produced a much larger effect on production and employment by provoking a sharp swing from inventory accumulation to inventory liquidation. The inventory declines were closely related to the specific reductions in demand already noted. Indeed, reductions in inventory holdings by manufacturers of machinery, aircraft, and automobiles accounted for over one-half of the decline in total business inventories. Producers supplying these industries in turn were faced with substantial declines in incoming business, and they attempted to pare down their holdings. As a consequence, particularly large reductions occurred in the output of the supplying industries. Certain additional developments also influenced inventory policies. Special problems of excess capacity and unfavorable relationships between current sales and inventory holdings affected the petroleum, chemical, and paper industries. The inventories of manufacturers of consumer household durable goods were high when the downturn began; although sales declined only moderately, production was cut sharply in order to complete the indicated adjustment. And distributors of all types of consumer goods—apart from automobile dealers, whose inventories were rising sharply—cut their purchases from manufacturers and drew down their inventories, even though consumer purchases were well maintained. The major part of this liquidation of trade inventories came in the first quarter of 1958, when recessionary pressures were greatest. The impact of these inventory adjustments was considerable. The swing from accumulation at an annual rate of $2.2 billion per year in the third quarter of 1957 to liquidation at the annual rate of $9.5 billion during the first quarter of 1958 reduced gross national product by $11.7 billion, about 60 percent of its entire decline during this period. RESISTANCE TO CONTRACTION Measures taken in 1957-58 specifically to counteract economic recession, and other measures taken for reasons independent of economic conditions, played an important part in limiting the contraction in production and employment to a moderate over-all decline and to a brief span of time. But these limiting features were in part also the result of the considerable and growing capacity of our economic system to resist deflationary forces. A major element in the economy's resistance to recession in 1957-58 was the maintenance of over-all consumer demand, a result that may be attributed to consumer confidence and to the maintenance of personal income. Although gross national product was $20 billion lower on an annual-rate basis in the first quarter of 1958 than in the third quarter of 1957, the decline in personal disposable (after tax) income was less than $4 billion, and aggregate consumer expenditures fell only $2 billion. 14 In contrast, during the recessions prior to World War II, large declines in investment activity commonly resulted in large contractions in personal income, and reduced incomes naturally led to lower consumer purchases. But in recessions since the war, the relative stability of consumer incomes and purchases has provided a check on this potentially cumulative process. As a result, declines in production have been contained within a narrower segment of the economy. A number of factors help to account for the maintenance of consumer income during the 1957-58 recession. First, the decline in personal income earned in production was small relative to the contraction in the value of output. For every decline of $1 billion in private output, personal income earned fell only $360 million; in 1929-30, it fell $670 million for each $1 billion decline in output. This relatively more moderate decline in earned income resulted in part from the fact that a larger proportion of our labor force is now employed in industries and occupations not quickly affected by moderate changes in business conditions; and even in the industries that are more sensitive to business fluctuations, a larger proportion of employees hold positions not usually affected by production cutbacks of short duration. Moreover, wage rates continued to press upward during the 1957-58 period, increasing the pay of employed persons and moderating the income reductions of those working a shorter week. But this is a factor that works two ways. It may sustain income for the employed; but to the extent that it leads to higher costs and prices, it may induce reductions in the working force and be an obstacle to re-employment. Some of the factors that have made personal income earned in production more resistant to recession have, on the other hand, made corporate income more sensitive. Total corporate profits, and consequently the revenues received by Government from corporate income taxes, fell sharply during the recession. Because corporate dividends were maintained at a high level, helping to sustain personal income, corporate retentions of income were sharply reduced. For every $1 billion decline in gross national product, corporate income taxes and retained earnings (adjusted for inventory valuation) together fell $590 million from the third quarter of 1957 to the first quarter of 1958, compared with a drop of $240 million from 1929 to 1930. Another development accounting for the small decline in personal income earned in production was the rise in farm income during the recession. Net farm income rose in the first quarter of 1958 to an annual rate that was 10 percent higher than in 1957, increased another 6 percent in the second quarter, and then remained roughly unchanged for the rest of the year. To some extent, however, the beneficial results for the economy of the larger income of farmers were offset by the effect of higher farm prices, which reduced nonfarm real income and purchases. Second, certain supplements to earnings helped to maintain aggregate consumer income. Unemployment compensation payments increased sharply as employment and earnings fell, and the extension of these benefits 15 for additional periods in 1958 provided a further offset to lost pay for those who had exhausted their rights. Actually, the extended benefits did not begin to be paid until after the recovery had started; nevertheless, they assisted those who felt the recession's effect for the longest time and they also strengthened the recovery movement. In addition, supplemental unemployment compensation payments under private plans helped to maintain personal incomes and consumption expenditures. Another major income supplement was the steady increase in payments under social security, pension, and other benefit arrangements. The increase in such payments during the recession resulted from the growth in the number of persons eligible to receive them and from benefit increases under certain public social security programs which had been legislated earlier. The increase in these so-called "transfer" payments was very large: $2.6 billion on an annual rate basis between the third quarter of 1957 and the first quarter of 1958, and another $2.6 billion by the third quarter. In this way, not only was the personal income earned in production relatively well maintained during the recession, but the declines that did occur were appreciably moderated in their effect on total personal income. Finally, part of the fall in personal income was offset by a decline in tax obligations, so that the income available to consumers after taxes, and thus their purchasing power, declined less than the flow of personal income. The combination of these three stabilizing factors—the small decline in earned personal income relative to the decline in production, the growth in transfer payments, and the reduction in personal tax payments—greatly moderated the fall in consumer income available for spending. And consumers, in turn, reduced their purchases of goods and services by less than the fall in their income. If purchases by consumers in 1957-58 had fallen as much, in proportion to the decline in all other demands for output, as from 1929 to 1930, they TABLE 2.—Changes in income and consumption in recessions Percentage change Period 1929-30 1937-38 1948-49 1953-54 1957-58 Gross national product -12.7 —6 2 -3.6 -2.7 -4.4 1 2 Personal income earned in production -10.7 -8 0 -3.7 -1.1 -2.2 Ratio of change in consumpPersonal tion to Disposable consump- change in personal tion exgross income penditures national product l (percent) -10.5 —7 5 -2.0 .8 -1.2 -10.1 —4 0 .2 1.4 -.7 0.60 48 (2) (2) .11 Ratio based on change in dollar amounts. Not computed because consumption rose while gross national product declined. NOTE.—Changes from 1929 to 1930 and from 1937 to 1938 are based on annual data. Other changes are based on seasonally adjusted data for the peak and trough quarters of gross national product. Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers. 16 would have dropped by at least $26 billion. Actually, they fell only $2 billion. While gross national product fell 4/2 percent, personal disposable income fell only about 1 percent, and consumption expenditures only 0.7 percent (Table 2 ) . The moderate extent and relatively short duration of the recession were also due in part to the absence of adverse financial developments—which in the past have tended to aggravate business contractions—and to the increase of asset values, notably farm land and real estate. These circumstances reflect the fact that the recession was brief and moderate, but they helped to keep it brief and moderate. PRICES AND COSTS Public attention was attracted during the recession to the apparent paradox of prices continuing to rise while production and employment were declining. Attention was naturally focused mainly on consumer prices. As measured by the consumer price index, this group of prices rose, on the average, by about 2 percent, though there was considerable diversity of movement among different items. A major part of the increase was due to higher food prices and the continuing upward drift in the costs of various services used by consumers (Charts 4 and 5). On the other hand, prices of manufactured products, with the major exception of new and used automobiles, were reasonably stable. CHART 4 Consumer Prices on a Prewar Base Between 1939 and 1948 commodity prices increased rapidly, service prices slowly. Since then, prices of services have risen steadily relative to prices of commodities. INDEX, 1939 = 100 250 •> ..••* ALL ITEMS / DURABLE /COMMODITIES 200 NONDURABLE COMMODITIES «^»* EXCLUDING FOOD , ' ^ 150 100 I I 1940 I 42 I I 44 I I 46 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. J I I 48 50 1 I 52 1 I 54 I I 56 I 58 Prices in wholesale markets rose somewhat less than prices at retail, and have been roughly stable since early in 1958. Again, however, the average of wholesale prices fails to disclose the considerable differences of movement among commodity groups. Prices of farm products and foods rose sharply during the recession and then declined after mid-1958. Prices of raw materials, which are always sensitive to changes in domestic and world market conditions, declined sharply during the recession but recovered rapidly after the upturn. Prices of manufactured products continued to rise during the early months of the contraction, but fluctuated within a narrow range throughout 1958 (Chart 6). While it is important to beware of overly simple explanations for the rise in prices during the last few years, and in particular for the continuance of some increases during the recession, three factors of major importance may be identified as having contributed to these results. First, during the early part of the upward price movement which started about three years ago, some increases were caused by heavy and rapidly mounting demands. These higher prices often became higher costs for other industries, thus diffusing their effects throughout much of the economy. Second, a substantial part of the rise during the recession reflected forces not closely related to the immediate business situation. Prices of services, on which consumers spend over one-third of their total outlays, were making a delayed adjustment to earlier increases in prices and costs. This paralleled CHART 5 Consumer Prices on a Recent Base Between 1955 and mid-1957 all major price indexes rose; during the next year increases were confined mainly to food and service prices; in recent months the over-all index has been stable. INDEX, 1953-54=100 115 105 100 1953 1954 1955 1956 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 18 1957 1958 CHART 6 Wholesale Commodity Prices The wholesale price index was roughly stable in recession and recovery. Offsetting changes occurred in prices of the various components. INDEX, 1953-54 = 100 FINISHED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS *• 120 - ...-••" •••" PRODUCERS' EQUIPMEI*<T V / ./"" no - CONSUMER GOODS ,— ' 100 1 II 1 ll 1 1 1 ! 1 1953 m 1 II 1 1 ll 1 1 M 1954 1955 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 1 mnlnm 1956 1957 lllllllllll 1958 the experience in the other two postwar recessions. Prices of food, which account for roughly one-quarter of the expenditures of consumers, rose mainly because of supply conditions. Lower marketings of livestock resulted in higher meat prices; and unfavorable weather conditions reduced the supplies, and led to higher prices, of fresh fruits and vegetables. Third, substantial increases in costs in recent years have influenced prices. Large additions to productive capacity, and the replacement in this period of facilities originally acquired when costs and prices were lower, have caused capital costs to mount sharply. A rapidly enlarging complement of professional and technical personnel has also added to costs, though inevitably the full beneficial effects of these larger staffs will be realized only over an extended period of time. Since commensurate gains in output have not occurred, these increases in costs have resulted in higher expenses per unit of output produced. Finally, wages, salaries, and employee fringe benefits have increased at rates above those consistent with the long-run productivity performance of the economy. As a result, employee compensation per unit of output, which had been fairly stable between 1953 and 1955, rose about 10 percent in the next two years. This persistent advance in costs of all types naturally exerted an upward pressure on prices. The increase in prices that did occur was less than the rise in costs, however, with the result that profits per unit of output were lower in 1956 and 1957 than in 1955. Clearly, severe reductions in the price level during a brief and moderate recession are not to be expected and would not be a proper objective of national economic policy. Indeed, such reductions might impede early recovery of the economy. Rather, the problem is how to achieve a reasonable stability of prices when economic activity is advancing and output and employment are high. The limited downward flexibility of prices in a moderate recession, and the upward movement even then of certain key prices and costs, highlight and emphasize the need for public and private policies that will produce the desired price stability at all times. RESUMPTION OF ECONOMIC EXPANSION Even during periods of general economic contraction, some industries and some regions of the Nation continue to forge ahead and others experience only a temporary cessation or slowing down of their rate of growth. This continuing strength helps to moderate cutbacks of production elsewhere ; and when demands begin to rise again in areas where there had been actual declines, over-all gains in output and employment follow quickly. A pattern of this type prevailed in the 1957-58 recession. While production and employment were declining rather sharply in some sectors, notably in the heavy industries and in those producing consumer durable goods, output and sales of consumer nondurable goods fell only slightly, the service industries expanded, and purchases by State and local governments con- 20 CHART 7 Employment in Nonagricultural Establishments Manufacturing, mining, and transportation accounted for fourfifths of the 1957-58 decline in employment and for half of the increase since April. MILLIONS OF PERSONS 54 52 - 4 - 2 - 1953 1954 1955 1956 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 21 489916 O—59 3 1957 1958 tinued to rise. Then, as areas of the economy that had suffered declines resumed expansion, and as sales began to be met increasingly out of current production rather than out of inventories, a rise in general economic activity started (Chart 2 ) . In the early part of 1958, shifts of this kind developed quickly. In February, employment was declining in all major sectors of the private economy; only in government was it increasing. By April and May, increases in private employment were reported (Charts 7 and 8). The demand for goods and services ceased declining in a number of industries and in some cases began to rise. The decline of exports virtually ended by the second quarter of 1958, eliminating an important contractive force. As indicated earlier, Federal outlays on goods and services fell only in the fourth quarter of 1957, and then by a relatively small amount—$600 million on an annual rate basis. A rise in such outlays began in the next quarter. Purchases of nondefense goods and services by the Federal Government rose at an annual rate of $3 billion from the first to the fourth quarter of 1958, largely on account of increased payments under agricultural price support programs and higher Government pay scales. And defense outlays, significantly influenced by the effect of pay increases, rose at an annual rate of $400 million between the first and second quarters of 1958 and by another $900 million in the next two quarters. At the same time, there was a sharp increase in the placement of contracts for the purchase of military goods. New orders for major items of defense goods, which in the second half of 1957 were being placed at an annual rate of $12 billion, increased to an annual rate of $22 billion in the first half of 1958. The most immediate effect of this rise was to slow and eventually halt the liquidation of inventories by defense contractors. Most of the decline in business expenditures for plant and equipment had occurred by the second quarter of 1958. However, indications that the decline would not be of long duration began to appear early in the year; new orders for machinery and equipment, after falling sharply in the late months of 1957, stabilized after the turn of the year and moved upward shortly thereafter. Surveys of the plans of businesses for capital outlays reported in September 1958 and again in December indicated that the decline in these expenditures had ended and that some increase was in prospect. Although industrial capacity was generally ample, the need for more or for improved facilities was already being felt in some industries. Throughout the economy, increased competitive pressures and rising costs intensified the search for more efficient production techniques. Indications that home building would help promote an upturn were apparent early. Applications for FHA commitments, after declining more than seasonally in the final quarter of 1957, moved moderately upward through March 1958 and then increased strongly for the next six months. The number of new private dwelling units being started increased steadily after February. As was to be expected, time was required for these changes 22 CHART 8 Employment, Hours, and Earnings in Manufacturing The average length of the workweek turned up in March 1958 . . . HOURS* AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS (PRODUCTION WORKERS) 42 40 38 II I i I i I I i I I 11 i i I i I 11 I I I 11 i I i i i I i 1 1 I 11 i i 11 i 1 1 1 I i 11 i I 11 I 11 11 i 11 i i I I i 1 1 I I i ii 1953 1954 1955 1956 1958 1957 . . . and employment of production workers in June. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* EMPLOYMENT 14 13 12 II NONPRODUCTION (SALARIED) WORKERS * S t' 0 r l I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1^ 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 Hourly earnings continued to advance throughout the year. DOLLARS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (PRODUCTION WORKERS) 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 - 0 11111111111111111111111111 1111111111i 111111111111111111111111111111111111 1958 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. CHART 9 Employment, Production, and Income Employment changes have been broadly similar to previous postwar experience. PEAK MONTH = 100* 110 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT (BLS) 105 1948-50 V 100 1953-55 95 90 85 L-L-J—L 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 MONTHS AFTER CYCLICAL PEAK 18 20 22 24 8 10 12 14 16 18 MONTHS AFTER CYCLICAL LOW 20 22 24 PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE* 2 - 0 2 4 6 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. 24 CHART 9—Continued Employment, Production, and Income Changes in production and income also have been similar to previous experience. PEAK QUARTER=100 f 115 TOTAL OUTPUT (GNP IN CONSTANT PRICES) 110 1948-50 105 100 1953-55 95 1957-58 90 2 3 4 5 6 QUARTERS AFTER CYCLICAL PEAK PEAK MONTH = IOO f 115 PERSONAL INCOME 110 105 100 95 90 I 0 i i 2 i i 4 i i i 6 8 i i 10 i i i 12 14 16 18 i i 20 i i 22 MONTHS AFTER CYCLICAL PEAK t SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. * INCLUDES SPECIAL LUMP-SUM PAYMENTS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. i 24 to be translated into actual construction activity, but the volume of expenditures for residential construction turned upward after May and quickly pushed well above the levels of 1956 and 1957. The rise in home building activity and the stability of consumer demand in general began early in 1958 to exert a favorable influence on the inventory policies of producers and distributors of building materials and consumer goods. In the first quarter of the year, these industries were cutting back their inventories sharply. Except for automobiles, however, sales were not falling by a significant amount, and in many cases were rising. As retail and wholesale firms placed larger orders with manufacturers, the latter increased their production, both to meet the increased sales and to replenish their own inventories. In preparation for a new model year, the automobile industry also began expanding production and adding to inventories. The change in the rate of inventory investment by wholesalers and retailers and by the automobile industry accounted for a rise of about $4 billion in national product between the first and fourth quarters of 1958, about oneseventh of the total increase recorded for that period. Although inventories of manufacturers not closely associated with consumer developments continued to decline throughout the summer at a fairly rapid rate, they eventually began to feel the effects of the increase in demand elsewhere. Inventory reductions were slowed considerably, as production expanded faster than sales; but in some industries, particularly those producing capital goods, liquidation continued in the final quarter of 1958. For the economy as a whole, however, the rate of production in the fourth quarter was equal to sales, whereas in the first quarter it had been $9.5 billion less than sales. This rise of $9.5 billion accounted for more than one-third of the increase in gross national product during the period. As a result of increases in sales and production, and a continued rise in transfer payments, personal income began to rise in March. Apart from the effects of retroactive salary payments to Federal employees in July, and the pattern of dividend payments in December, the increase continued through the year, providing the basis for higher consumption expenditures. Although the decline in consumer spending on durable goods continued through the second quarter, total consumption expenditures began to increase in that quarter and by the end of the year retail sales were above sales a year earlier. After September, purchases of durable goods increased substantially. Responding to the increase in output and sales, corporate profits recovered sharply in the second half of 1958. By the fourth quarter of the year, they were apparently equal to the highest quarterly figure in 1957 and only slightly below the peak attained in 1955. Supplementing the increasing allowances for depreciation, these higher earnings were providing substantially larger amounts of internal funds to business concerns by the end of the year. Had it not been for extensive work stoppages in the final quarter, the recovery in output, employment, and income, and in spending by consumers, would have been more rapid. As it was, changes in employment followed fairly closely the patterns of change in previous postwar cycles. The rate of 26 unemployment, which had risen above the rate in previous recessions since the war, also fell rapidly. In the final two months of the year, the unemployment rate was close to what it had been in the corresponding period in the 1948—50 recession and recovery, though still above what it had been in the corresponding period in 1953-55 (Chart 9). DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD PRODUCTION AND TRADE The recession was not limited to the United States in its origins or in its effects. Production ceased to expand in most other industrial countries of the Free World, and in some countries it declined in 1957-58 (Chart 10). However, the general level of industrial output abroad in the closing months of 1958 was moderately higher than it had been a year earlier, and many indications pointed toward a renewal of expansion in countries with which the American economy is closely related. World commodity prices, crucial to the incomes of the primary producing countries, stabilized in the first half of the year, and some of them tended to strengthen in the second half. World trade, after its first significant setback since the Korean conflict, also appeared to reflect a strengthening of demand. The period of expansion which preceded the recession produced certain maladjustments abroad, the correction of which entailed at least some slowing down in production and trade before growth could be resumed on a firmer footing. As in the United States, the expansion of industrial capacity in certain countries was greater than the increase in industrial output. In the United Kingdom, the increase in capacity resulting from large investment outlays after 1955 was not matched by a corresponding increase in industrial production or in output per worker. As wage rates continued to rise rapidly, labor costs per unit of output increased. Together with rising capital costs, they exerted an upward pressure on prices. In most other industrial countries, the investment boom was translated into a rapid growth in output and in productivity. Some of these countries, especially the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, and Austria, successfully combined these high growth rates with only moderate price increases. Others, however, including particularly Japan, France, and the Netherlands, developed strong inflationary pressures at home and unsustainably heavy external deficits as their demands for capital goods and industrial materials rose. To these maladjustments were added the strains in international payments produced by the Suez crisis and the short-term capital movements that started in late 1956. Readjustments thus had to be made in a number of countries at about the same time. The timing of these shifts was partly coincidental, but their effects were closely intertwined. A contraction of demand arising out of them had immediate effects on inventory policies not only in the countries immediately concerned but in other countries as well, as world prices of primary commodities weakened. Some commodities were already vulnerable to such changes. This was especially true with respect to nonferrous metals, for which production capacity in the United States and abroad had 27 CHART 10 Foreign Industrial Production Production abroad rose rapidly from 1952 to mid-1957 and since then has shown little further change. INDEX, 1953 = 100* 160 140 WESTERN EUROPE, CANADA, AND JAPAN V 120 100 80 I I 1 I I I I I I I I 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1955 1956 1957 1958 180 160 - 140 - 120 - 100 UNITED KINGDOM 120 \ 100 80 1953 * 1954 SEASONALLY SOURCES: ADJUSTED. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND ORGANIZATION FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COOPERATION. 28 CHART 11 World Trade The chief decline was in exports of the U. S. and the primary producing countries and in imports of other industrial countries. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* WORLD 100 EXPORTS 80 60 - 1953 1954 1955 1957 1956 . . .f 1958 INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES 60 WESTERN EUROPE, CANADA, AND JAPAN 40 20 IMPORTS 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 PRIMARY PRODUCING COUNTRIES-^ 40 20 EXPORTS 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES. J/EXCLUDES PETROLEUM-EXPORTING COUNTRIES (BUT LATTER ARE INCLUDED IN WORLD TOTAL). NOTE: DATA EXCLUDE TRADE OF USSR AND SOVIET- BLOC COUNTRIES. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. been rapidly expanded in response to the extraordinary demands generated by the Korean conflict and its aftermath and by the investment boom. Burdensome surpluses of coffee had also been generated by excessive increases in capacity. The decline of commodity prices, in turn, reduced the buying power of countries producing primary products, in many of which the demand for imports had already grown beyond export earnings or other means of financing. For these reasons, international trade receded from the high level reached in the first half of 1957 and declined into the early part of 1958 (Chart 11). The decline was especially marked in United States exports, for reasons related to their commodity composition and country distribution. In the second half of 1958, however, United States exports were at about the same rate as in the first half of the year, and there appeared to be some strengthening in world trade. OUTLOOK FOR 1959 An examination of changes in demand that have been occurring recently in the major sectors of our economy provides a useful basis for estimating further changes during the months ahead. In the private sector, the industries that supply capital goods and facilities have, so far, contributed only modestly to the recovery. New orders for such goods have improved and demands for them have begun to rise, but output in the industries producing these goods has not increased markedly and the increase in employment has been even more restricted. In the months ahead, however, these industries and others more or less closely related to them should make a larger contribution to rising production, employment, and income. Factors that have a considerable influence on capital outlay decisions have become more favorable. Business earnings have improved. The rate of utilization of existing industrial capacity, though still not exerting pressure on businesses generally to enlarge their facilities, has increased sufficiently to bring the need for additional capacity within sight for some industries and firms. Moreover, the need for controlling costs provides incentives to replace obsolete and high-cost facilities, even though they remain operational. Present evidence indicates that business concerns contemplate no further curtailment of their expenditures for new and better facilities, and an upturn in such expenditures may already be under way. In the past, improving economic conditions have typically led business concerns to revise upward their plans for capital outlays, and it is reasonable to believe that some such revision may take place as the year progresses. There is not, as yet, a sufficient basis for judging how large the eventual increase in demand from this sector of the economy may be, but it seems reasonable to expect that it will make an increasing contribution to a rise in over-all economic activity. Although residential construction has already risen by about one-fourth since mid-1958, it is continuing to be a major factor in economic recovery. 3° Financing commitments already in hand and uncompleted starts should entail some further increase in construction outlays in the next few months. Subsequently, however, the level of building activity will depend increasingly on the capacity of the industry to compete for funds in the capital markets. Favorable action by the Congress on recommendations made elsewhere in this Report to correct those features of our housing laws that tend currently to impede the flow of private funds into home financing would significantly improve the outlook for a sustained high level of residential construction. For the time being, exports are still affected by some of the factors that contributed to their decline in 1958: a leveling of industrial activity abroad; apparently large inventories of some commodities that are important in United States shipments; and continued trade deficits and strains on foreign exchange reserves in some of the primary producing countries. These conditions not only moderate foreign demands for United States output but also produce keener export competition. A decisive upturn in United States exports can scarcely be expected until a renewed rise in industrial activity abroad sets in, and perhaps then only with some delay where inventories or idle capacity are large. However, there are encouraging indications of such a rise in some countries abroad, and policies favorable to economic expansion have been undertaken generally. Increased demand arising from renewed expansion in the industrial countries may be expected to benefit the trade position of primary producing countries. Meanwhile, United States imports appear to be strengthening further, as domestic economic activity rises, and this should help to increase foreign buying power, both directly through larger earnings from the United States and, more widely, through some continued firming of raw material prices. Accordingly, the prospect is that in the course of this year foreign economic activity and, possibly with some delay, the foreign demand for United States exports should begin to rise again in a mutually reinforcing relationship with our own economy. Farm production may be expected to remain an element of strength and stability in 1959. Even with growing conditions less favorable than in 1958, which was an exceptional year, the aggregate output of crops promises to remain high. It is expected that the total supply of milk, eggs, and meat will be increased, the last especially by a substantial amount of pork. Large production and stocks of many crops are likely to keep farm prices under some pressure, but prices of many products are protected from severe decline by governmental supports. Livestock prices may recede somewhat, owing to larger supplies of hogs and poultry, though beef cattle prices may remain relatively unchanged. Farmers' cash receipts from marketings may be well maintained but total expenses on account of farm production will probably continue to rise somewhat, reflecting higher payments for wages, taxes, interest, and machinery. Lower or unchanged costs are expected for other items. In these conditions, income from farming may be slightly below that in 1958, but still high, and farmers' expenditures for 31 production and consumption may be expected to remain at levels favorable to an expansion of business activity. Also, the high productivity of agriculture and large stocks of food and feed should help restrain increases in the general price level in the year ahead. In the public sector of the economy, a rise in Government outlays—Federal, State, and local combined—may be expected in the present year, though probably a smaller increase than in 1958. Outlays by State and local governments have been rising steadily, and they may be expected to continue expanding at the same rate as in the past year, if not at a somewhat higher rate. The Federal Government's outlays for goods and services and for transfer payments in connection with social security programs will increase in 1959, though by a lesser amount than in the past year. If increases in the demand for output continue to develop along these lines, the liquidation of inventories should soon come to an end, if it has not already done so, and some stepping up in production schedules above sales can reasonably be expected. A building up of stocks of materials and work in process is typical of a period of economic expansion. Moreover, inventories of some businesses in 1958 appear to have fallen below the amounts appropriate for even the reduced pace of sales at that time. The improved liquidity position of business concerns and financial institutions should make it possible to finance needed increases in inventories with reasonable ease. When account is taken of the currently favorable appraisal of economic conditions which consumers appear to hold, their improved credit position, and the higher incomes likely to be generated in sectors of the economy not directly connected with the production of consumer goods, it seems reasonable to expect an enlarging market for these goods in the coming year. In turn, higher employment in these industries may be expected to contribute further to the increase in economic activity generally. On the other hand, the extent to which increases in income can lead to higher consumption of goods and services, and thus to higher levels of production and employment in the consumption goods industries, depends on whether increases in wage and other costs are held within limits consistent with reasonable stability of consumer prices. With due allowance for the limitations that surround all efforts to forecast the probable course of activity in a free economy, there is a reasonable basis for confidence that the recent improvement in activity will be extended into the months ahead. However, it must be recognized that the actions of all individuals and groups in the Nation—consumers, business concerns, labor organizations, and Government—will have a decisive bearing on the outcome. All must play their parts appropriately if the high levels of employment, production, and purchasing power envisaged by the Employment Act are to be attained. A significant contribution by Government to the accomplishment of this purpose, and particularly to the achievement of the price stability essential for sustainable economic growth, would be assured by the economic program outlined in Chapter 4. That program is recommended to the favorable attention of the Congress. 32 Chapter 3 Economic Policies in 1958 ARIOUS MEASURES undertaken by Government helped overcome the contractive forces in our economy in 1957-58. Some of these measures were initiated specifically to help reverse the decline and to promote a higher level of business activity. Others were designed to mitigate the special hardships experienced by individuals and families through loss of employment. Still others were called for by considerations entirely independent of economic conditions, but they nevertheless had the effect of stimulating economic activity. After the recovery started, policies were directed to helping achieve a high and sustainable rate of economic growth with stable prices. A review of these actions and an appraisal of how they influenced the year's economic developments are important as guides for Government and for private individuals and groups in meeting future problems of economic stabilization with balanced and constructive policies. POLICIES DURING THE CONTRACTION Money and Credit During the past 18 months, monetary and credit policy was directed successively to moderating the rate of credit expansion, helping to reverse economic contraction, and encouraging a steady and balanced recovery and growth. Demands for capital and credit were heavy in the months preceding the 1957 downturn. Plant and equipment expenditures were at an all-time high, and expanding inventories required financing. Because the cash and liquidity position of businesses was relatively strained, funds to help finance investment programs and working capital needs were necessarily sought in large volume from outside sources. But because the Federal Reserve System confined the reserves supplied to member banks at its own initiative to amounts consistent only with seasonal swings in activity, bank credit was less readily available than in 1956. Businesses did obtain additional credit from commercial banks, but the increase was much smaller than in 1956, and more reliance for funds had to be placed on the capital markets. Securities offered by corporations increased to a new high volume, and the offerings of State and local governments approached record amounts. Meanwhile, the flow of funds into life insurance companies, savings and loan associations, and mutual savings banks slackened. Although larger 33 CHART 12 Interest Rates and Bond Yields Short-term interest rates continued to decline until mid-1958, then rose sharply until October. PERCENT PER ANNUM 4 - 1955 1956 1957 1958 Long-term interest rates declined slightly early in the year, but rose rapidly from midyear until October. PERCENT PER ANNUM 0 ii i i i i Ii i ii i I i ii i i Ii iii i I i i ii t Ii iii i Iii i i i I ii i ii SOURCES: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM, MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. 34 CHART 13 Member Bank Reserves In 1958 the rise in Federal Reserve holdings of U. S. Government securities offset the effect of gold outflow on bank reserves. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS T 35 CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION ^^ 30 ^__ X| f ' 1 U.S. GOVERNMEN r SECURITIES HELD BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS 25 v......,x :. GOLD STOCK -^ 20 y MEMBER BANK / RESERVrE BALANCES 15 *^^*^^"^"^^^™^ ** - - 1955 1956 1957 1958 Free reserves increased sharply early in 1958 and declined after midyear. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS1" (ENLARGED SCALE) FREE RESERVES ( E X C E S S RESERVES LESS BORROWINGS) I955 I956 I957 I958 t AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES. * CHANGE IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS. SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. 35 amounts of savings were supplied from other sources, notably from the increasing volume of time deposits in commercial banks, the rising tide of financial demands in the capital markets helped bring about progressively higher interest rates and bond yields. The peak of credit and capital costs came in the fall of 1957, when interest rates generally reached the highest levels since the early 1930's (Chart 12). By the end of September, there were indications that the demand by business concerns for bank credit was slackening; and the flow of funds into home financing fell as the ceiling interest rates on federally underwritten mortgages became increasingly out of line with yields available on investments not subject to such controls. In the second half of October, the Federal Reserve authorities began to ease slightly the reserve position of member banks through open market operations in United States Government securities. This was followed in mid-November by a reduction in the discount rate from 3/2 percent to 3 percent, signaling a decisive change in policy. Subsequently, the Federal Reserve authorities eased reserve positions still more by open market purchases of Government securities and released some $1.5 billion of bank reserves by lowering reserve requirements. In a series of steps over five months beginning in mid-November, the discount rate was reduced to 1% percent. By March 1958, the reserve position of banks had eased markedly. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve Banks were nearly $ 1 billion below those of September 1957, and net free reserves (excess reserves less borrowings) had increased to $500 million. This reserve position of member banks remained virtually unchanged until July 1958 (Chart 13). Monetary policy was, moreover, sufficiently expansionary to offset the impact on bank reserves of a gold outflow of $1.4 billion, which took place in the first six months of the year. These steps produced emphatic reactions in financial markets. The improved reserve position of commercial banks enabled them to add nearly $10 billion in loans and investments to their assets in the first half of 1958. This took the form largely of additions to their holdings of United States Government securities, which increased $6.0 billion by midyear, but their holdings of State and local securities also increased significantly. The demand for bank credit from most other borrowers was not heavy, and other forms of credit increased only a little or declined. As a result, the ratio of United States Government securities to loans in bank portfolios increased. Because the major part of this increase in bank assets was reflected in an expansion of $5.7 billion of time deposits, the volume of demand deposits and currency, which is the economy's active money supply, increased by only $2.2 billion, on a seasonally adjusted basis (Chart 14). Without posing potentially inflationary threats, this timely expansion of the money supply helped to improve the liquidity position of the economy generally. CHART 14 Money Supply The money supply increased in 1958, mainly in the first 7 months of the year. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 - 1956 1957 1958 END OF MONTH SOURCES: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. Borrowing costs and investment yields in capital and credit markets reacted quickly to these developments. Short-term interest rates fell sharply. The rate on 91-day Treasury bills dropped significantly below 1 percent by May, and the rate on prime commercial paper was reduced to as low as 1 1 /% percent in June. In the market for longer-term funds, the yield on outstanding long-term United States Government issues fell to a low of 3.05 percent in April, a decline of 19 percent from the October 1957 high. By the time the economy was turning from recession to recovery, the yield on high-grade corporate bonds had fallen 14 percent below its 1957 high, and the yield on high-grade municipal securities almost 19 percent. Prices of FHA-insured and VA-guaranteed home mortgages in secondary markets had risen significantly by midyear, and there was a rapid improvement in the availability of mortgage investment funds throughout the country. Housing and Home Financing Nowhere in the economy was the stimulative effect of the easing of credit conditions more clearly visible than in residential building. Evidences of underlying strength in this area, in which activity had been declining more or less steadily for two years, were apparent as early as mid-195 7. Low vacancy rates, a somewhat quickened tempo of sales, and a reduction in 489916 O—59 37 the number of unsold houses held by builders suggested a firming of demand. In numerous communities, the elimination of rent controls had created conditions more favorable to the construction of apartment projects; and significant progress had been made, through the provision of needed community facilities, in removing deficiencies that were impeding the construction of single-family homes. In August 1957, minimum downpayment requirements on FHA-insured loans were reduced by administrative order, issued under the authority granted by the Housing Act of that year. And the increase in residential construction costs, which had been particularly rapid during 1955 and a good part of 1956, halted. In this favorable environment, an increase in the flow of private funds into the home mortgage market served rather quickly to initiate an upturn in prospective residential building activity. Indeed, the reaction was so marked that it was necessary in January 1958 to request authority from the Congress to use additional funds to meet the costs of processing an unexpectedly large volume of applications for FHA loan insurance (Chart 15). Numerous administrative actions were taken to spur building activity. In December 1957, more than $175 million was released for purchases of mortgages by the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and to assist urban renewal. Early in January 1958, the rule requiring that closing costs on FHA-insured loans be paid in cash—a rule which had been imposed in 1955 as a check on the excessive use of credit—was rescinded. In February, a new program was launched by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board to make loans available on a five-year basis to member associations, supplementing its shorter-term loan program. In March, adjustments were made in allowable discounts on VA loans, another $200 million was released to the FNMA for the purchase of mortgages under its special assistance programs, and the Housing and Home Finance Agency was directed by the President to expedite construction on approved and planned projects for college housing, urban renewal, and public housing. Early in April, minimum downpayment requirements on VA-guaranteed loans were reduced. In the same month, several additional steps were taken under authority granted by the newly approved housing legislation. Adjustments were made in the interest rate on military housing to expedite the flow of private funds into this type of investment; minimum downpayment requirements were reduced on FHA-insured loans; the interest rate on VA-guaranteed loans was adjusted upward to the maximum permitted under the law, in order to draw additional funds into this type of investment; discount controls, which had previously tended to block the flow of funds into FHAinsured and VA-guaranteed loans, were removed; and $325 million was released by the President for purchases by the FNMA of mortgages on properties in urban renewal areas and on housing for elderly persons and for military personnel. Funds were made available in April, May, July, and August^ under the FNMA special assistance program created by the April housing legislation for the purchase of mortgages ranging in amount up to $13,500. At that time, the law required that qualifying mortgages be purchased at par. Since this assured financing of projects at costs below the price of funds obtainable from private sources, and because the law authorized the issuance of advance commitments, builders turned at once to the Federal Government. By the middle of September, virtually all of the $1 billion authorized by this legislation had been committed to be paid out as mortgages were delivered. As already indicated, evidence of an imminent upturn in home building was visible even before the end of 1957, but the increase naturally lagged by some months behind the improvement in financial conditions. A small increase in housing starts began in March 1958, when the seasonally adjusted annual rate rose slightly above the 915,000 reached in February. By December 1958, starts of new homes had reached a rate of 1,430,000. The volume of new residential construction expenditures also increased, but somewhat later than the rise in housing starts. Although other types of construction activity continued at a high level, it was residential building that supplied the major impetus from the construction field to general economic recovery. CHART 15 Housing Starts and Requests for Federal Underwriting Private housing starts rose sharply after March 1958. Applications for FHA and VA financing increased before midyear, then declined. MILLIONS OF UNITS 1.5 ANNUAL R A T E S - /"\ PRIVATE NONFARM STARTS fm\ UNADJUSTED 1.0 .5 1955 1956 1957 1958 ! NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION (FHA), AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION (VA). 39 Unemployment Insurance Benefits The primary objective of our Federal-State system of unemployment insurance is directly to aid those experiencing involuntary loss of employment. However, by sustaining the aggregate purchasing power of consumers at a level higher than would otherwise prevail, these payments contribute significantly to the stabilization of the whole economy. In both these respects, benefit payments were materially helpful during the 1957-58 recession. Payments rose moderately in the third quarter of 1957 and very sharply in the fourth quarter and after the turn of the year, as unemployment mounted. From July 1957 to April 1958, they directly offset about one-third of the decline in wage and salary disbursements and, because they are not taxable, their effect in maintaining disposable personal income was even greater. The contraction of job opportunities meant that unemployment was extended for many workers beyond normal lengths and beyond the period of benefit rights under basic laws. As a result, the number of persons exhausting their benefits rose from 82,000 per month in September 1957 to a peak of 285,000 in July 1958. Legislation was requested in March 1958 to lengthen temporarily the period of entitlement to unemployment benefits, and a bill was enacted in June. States participating in this temporary program, or otherwise extending the duration of benefits, accounted for 70 percent of covered employment. The number of Unemployed persons eligible for its benefits reached a maximum of 658,000 in late August 1958. Extra benefits amounted to about $390 million during the year. Defense Procurement The Economic Report of January 1958 noted that the economy was beginning to feel the impact of an increase in defense expenditures. In the January 1958 Budget Message, $39.6 billion of new obligational authority was requested for the military functions of the Department of Defense, and budget expenditures of $40.3 billion were contemplated for the fiscal year 1959. The latter figure was $1.4 billion higher than the expenditures estimated for fiscal 1958. Much of this increase resulted from higher planned expenditures for military research and development programs, additional military construction, and a contingency reserve for the acceleration of weapons development. In line with national security policy, a supplemental appropriation request of close to $1.3 billion was made on January 7, 1958, as an advance on the program for the fiscal year 1959; and in April, close to $1.5 billion of additional funds were requested for the fiscal year 1959. The acceleration of defense procurement under the amounts appropriated in the calendar year 1958 and prior years was soon evident in the awarding 40 of contracts for major items. In the third quarter of 1957, gross obligations for major procurement and production in the Department of Defense military functions amounted to $2.2 billion. They rose to nearly $3.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 1957, and reached $4.7 billion and $6.1 billion in the first and second quarters of 1958, respectively. Because changes in the backlog of unfilled orders permit the rate of current production to follow a more even course than would be dictated by the flow of new orders alone, this acceleration in defense contracting was not accompanied by a corresponding increase of output in the affected industries. However, the rise in defense contracting in the first half of 1958 did result in an expansion of defense production, and through its effect on the inventory policies of defense contractors had a significantly stimulative effect on the economy. Civil Procurement and Construction Steps taken to accelerate needed Government procurement and construction in nondefense programs also had a helpful, though necessarily limited, effect. Early in March, accelerated procurement of needed equipment and supplies was authorized, and instructions were issued to agencies calling for the placement of as many planned orders as possible under available authorizations. Stress was placed on the desirability of giving these orders, insofar as possible, to firms in areas of substantial labor surplus. Legislation was requested in March and enacted in April to make available for immediate use one-half of the amounts requested for the purchase of supplies and equipment in the fiscal year 1959. The General Services Administration, the Veterans Administration, and other civilian agencies ordered substantial quantities of supplies under this plan, and the Post Office Department placed orders for new trucks earlier than had been scheduled. A program for accelerating the repair and modernization of Federal buildings was also put into operation in March, and congressional assent to requests for supplemental appropriations made it possible to continue an accelerated rate of activity on Federal water projects already under way. Acceleration of Grants-in-Aid and Tax Refunds Allocations to State and local bodies under various Federal grant programs, including aid for the construction of hospitals, medical research facilities, and airports, were accelerated during March and April so that contracts might be negotiated for projects that could be started immediately. Special efforts were made by the Internal Revenue Service in 1958 to speed up the payment of refunds to those who had overpaid their 1957 income taxes. Refunds distributed in the first five months of the year exceeded those of the same period of 1957 by $700 million. 41 Federal-Aid Highway Program In order to maintain construction of the Interstate Highway System on schedule, legislation was requested to permit larger allocations to the States than would have been possible under the original provisions of the law. Such legislation was enacted in April, and allotments were promptly made. During the following six months, contracts were negotiated by the States for the construction of Federal-aid highways to cost $3 billion, 80 percent more than the amount obligated during the corresponding period of 1957 (Table 3). During this same six-month period, Federal payments to the States exceeded $1^4 billion. This, also, was more than 80 percent greater than the amounts paid during the same months a year earlier. TABLE 3.—Obligations and payments on Federal-aid highway programs, 1957—58 [Millions of dollars] New obligations for highway construction 1 Federal payments to States Period Total Interstate program Other programs 2 Total Interstate program Other programs 2 1 957; First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 781 896 803 1, 174 418 410 405 833 364 486 398 341 214 235 362 423 82 64 120 173 132 171 242 250 1958' First quarter 770 1 378 1,399 1, 266 386 598 737 650 385 780 662 615 269 410 643 886 129 251 365 509 140 159 278 377 Third quarter 3 Fourth quarter 1 2 Includes Federal and State matching funds. Includes primary, secondary, and urban extension highways. Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 3 Federal Credit Programs Steps to help counter the recession were taken in a number of Federal credit programs outside the housing field. Loan approvals by the Small Business Administration during the first half of 1958 amounted to about $122 million, $33 million more than in the corresponding period of 1957. The Export-Import Bank contributed even more heavily to the increased volume of Federal lending activity. Its contribution through loan authorizations toward the financing of domestic economic activity is estimated to have been more than $250 million larger in the first half of 1958 than in the corresponding period of 1957. Federal Fiscal Operations Not all Federal actions taken to help counteract recession are reflected in Federal budget accounts. Many involved no additional budget outlays at all and, where the placement of contracts and orders was involved, some part of the impact on the economy came at an earlier date than would be suggested by their eventual reflection in the budget as expenditures. Even so, significant interactions between economic developments and Government fiscal operations are revealed in the Federal budget. 42 In the fiscal year 1958, Federal expenditures were $2.5 billion higher than in the fiscal year 1957—the twelve-month period which preceded the 1957 downturn (Table 4). This increase was due in part to actions taken specifically to help counter the recession but in part also to actions which, though taken for other reasons, had an expansive effect on the economy. Directly and indirectly, increases in Federal expenditures resulted in an TABLE 4.—Federal budget receipts and expenditures, fiscal years 1957—60 [Billions of dollars] Fiscal year Expenditures Receipts 1957 1958 1959 ' I960 i 1.6 -2.8 -12.9 69 4 71.9 80 9 77.0 71 0 69. 1 68 0 77 1 .. Surplus or deficit (-) .1 1 Estimate. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. additional demand for output at a time when private demand had slackened. Furthermore, a small part of the impact of the recession on economic activity in general was lessened by a decline in personal income tax payments. Because of the structure of our tax system, the decline in personal income after taxes was less than the decline in income before taxes. CHART 16 Fe deral Government Receipts and Expenditures No tional Income Accounts ixpenditures rose steadily in 1958. Receipts fell in the first part of the year and increased thereafter. BILLI ONS OF DOLLARS* 100 90 80 70 60 __ ^ EXPENDITURES 0 1 1 1 1 10 0 1 1 1 SURPLUS i|i||ii^ -10 — -20 _ > 1 & & 1 1 1953 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 _ ^HQigiBa.n 1 1 i1 1 1 DEFICIT 1 1 1954 1 1 1 1 1 1955 1 1 1956 ! 1 1 1 1957 1 1 1 SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. 43 1 1958 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES. 1 1 1 The effect of changes in the Federal Government's fiscal operations can be followed more closely in our national income accounts. Total receipts and payments as registered in these accounts are larger, and differ from those in the budget, mainly because of the inclusion of trust fund operations, the exclusion of intra-governmental transactions, and the timing of transactions on a basis more closely related to their economic effects. These accounts show that in the third quarter of 1957 the Federal Government was withdrawing more funds from the economy through receipts than it was putting in through disbursements. Aggregate receipts at the seasonally adjusted annual rate of $83.3 billion exceeded disbursements by $3.4 billion. By the first quarter of 1958, on the other hand, receipts fell short of disbursements by an annual amount of $6.6 billion; in this quarter, therefore, the Federal Government's combined fiscal operations were, on balance, exerting a stimulative effect on the economy. This turnabout of $10 billion—nearly three-fourths of which was reflected in the decline in receipts—had a greater impact on the economy than did fiscal operations in either of the two other postwar contractions (Chart 16). POLICIES AFTER THE UPTURN With production, employment, and income moving upward in the second quarter of 1958, the economic policies of Government became concerned increasingly with keeping the recovery on a sound basis and promoting a sustainable, long-term expansion. Credit and capital markets responded quickly to the rapidly strengthening confidence that a firm recovery was under way. The large financing requirements of the Treasury also influenced financial mairkets. The upturn in interest rates, which reflected these changed views and conditions, was accentuated by the liquidation, beginning in June, of large speculative holdings of United States Government securities. Interest rates subsequently stabilized, however, and the liquidation appears not to have had any continuing effect on capital costs. To the greatest extent possible, the large-scale Treasury financing that was essential in these months was carried out in ways designed to minimize inflationary consequences and yet not to hamper the recovery and expansion of the economy by putting undue pressure on long-term capital markets. The events of 1958 presented an unusual variety of problems in the management of the public debt. During the year, an increase of $8 billion in the public debt had to be financed, and $53.2 billion of maturing marketable issues (exclusive of bills) needed refinancing. At the same time, the reduced pressure of private demand for credit made it practicable to undertake a lengthening of the average maturity of the Federal debt. In the first six months of the year, $19.6 billion of intermediate and long-term securities were issued, which resulted in a significant increase in the average length of the outstanding marketable debt. But after July, heavier than expected subscriptions to the June exchange bond and the later rapid decline in bond 44 CHART 17 Stock Prices and Credit Stock prices rose to a record level in 1958. INDEX, 1939*100 420 380 - 340 - 300 - 260 1956 1957 1958 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4.5 STOCK MARKET CREDIT-^ (END OF MONTH) 4.0 3.5 * A l I l l 1 I l 1956 l l I i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I 1957 1958 PERCENT OF MARKET VALUE 100 MARGIN REQUIREMENTS 50 1956 1957 1956 y CUSTOMERS' NET DEBIT BALANCES AND BANK LOANS TO OTHERS THAN BROKERS AND DEALERS. EXCLUDES U. S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES. SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM, AND NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE. 45 prices caused the Treasury to repurchase a quantity of its newly issued securities. During the latter part of July, the Federal Reserve suspended temporarily its policy of confining open market operations to short-term securities. For the remainder of 1958, the Treasury confined its borrowings to maturities not in excess of 2/2 years. It was evident by the end of the year that the Treasury's vast and difficult financing operation was being satisfactorily concluded. By December 31, most of the Treasury's prospective new money requirements for the current fiscal year had already been met. The Federal debt increased $6.6 billion during the second half of the year, but only about $2 billion of additional United States Government securities had been absorbed by the banking system. The expansion of the money supply, measured in terms of demand deposits and currency in circulation, had been limited to about $3 billion, or 2 percent, in the second half of the year. Most of the remainder of the Treasury's borrowing needs during this half-year were met from nonfinancial corporations and other short-term investors, rather than from longer-term holders of securities. As business conditions improved, monetary and credit policy was shifted, with a view to limiting the expansion of bank credit to a sustainable pace. The increased restraint on bank reserves was marked by the sharp rise in member bank borrowings that began in August. Discount rates were raised to 2 percent in August and to 2/2 percent in October, as short-term money rates moved upward. Margin requirements on new stock purchases were raised from 50 percent to 70 percent in August and to 90 percent in October, to prevent the excessive use of credit in stock market transactions, equity prices having risen in the meantime to record levels (Chart 17). The response of interest rates to the recovery of the economy and the shift in monetary policy was rapid. Within the short space of four months, a rise in short-term borrowing costs wiped out much of the previous reduction, long-term capital costs returned to the levels they had reached in the late summer and early fall of 1957, and funds became more costly and somewhat less readily available in the mortgage market. By the close of the year, capital and credit markets had moved a considerable distance toward the conditions prevailing 18 to 24 months earlier. Federal receipts and disbursements also reflected the economic and financial developments of the recovery period. The aggregate of the Federal Government's disbursements, as registered in national income accounts, rose from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $82.8 billion in the first quarter of 1958 to $90.6 billion in the final quarter. Meanwhile, Federal receipts of all types, which had declined under the impact of recession to an annual rate of $76.1 billion by the first quarter of 1958, rose to a rate of $83.4 billion in the fourth quarter. The gap between the Federal Government's disbursements and receipts narrowed, from a rate of $9.9 billion in the second quarter of the year to $7.2 billion as the year ended, as the fiscal operations of Government, which had tended earlier in the year to cushion the contraction, moved in the direction of restoring a balance between outlays and receipts and thereby countering potentially inflationary tendencies. This direction of change in the fiscal operations of Government is favorable to sustainable economic growth and improvement. Its beneficial effects would be extended by enactment of the financial plan presented to the Congress in the 1960 budget. 47 Chapter 4 A Program for Economic Growth with Price Stability T HE EMPLOYMENT ACT OF 1946, under which this Report is submitted to the Congress, lays principal emphasis on the need for public and private policies to promote high levels of employment, production, and purchasing power. Achievement of these goals has assumed increasing importance with the addition of a heavy and continuing burden— the maintenance of strong national defenses—which our economy must carry while raising the living standards of an increasing population and helping to discharge the Nation's international responsibilities. Experience during the life of the Act has, however, directed attention more and more to the need for a framework of reasonable price stability in order to achieve sustainable economic growth. A persistent upward movement of prices would do great harm to our economy. Quite apart from the inequities it would impose on those whose incomes would not rise correspondingly, it would narrow markets at home for important groups of goods, lower our capability to compete in the world's markets, and by requiring restrictive fiscal and monetary policies, lessen our chances of fully realizing our potential for economic growth. If price increases were to accelerate, the continuing upward movement would sooner or later undermine the confidence on which our economic system depends and would eventually release drastic corrective forces. Since some of the forces that tend to produce an upward movement of prices are themselves expressions of the process of vigorous growth in a free economy, the objective of national economic policy must be to balance encouragement and restraint. Clearly, reasonable stability of costs and prices cannot be preserved by any single policy or measure, nor by Government acting alone. To achieve the goal of inflation-free, sustainable growth requires that we adopt appropriate policies and modify certain practices in both the public and private sectors of the economy. As noted in Chapter 1, every group in the Nation has a responsibility to help check the forces which contribute to increases in costs and prices. Although success depends on a combination of appropriate public and private policies and actions, Government must supply the required leadership and direction for its achievement. A BALANCED 1960 BUDGET The principal means by which Government can express leadership in the effort to preserve price stability is to conduct its own financial affairs prudently. The budget submitted to the Congress for the fiscal year 1960, which balances expenditures with receipts at a level of $77 billion, seeks to fulfill this responsibility. The expenditures estimated for fiscal 1960 are $3.9 billion less than those estimated for the present fiscal year. A few items account for most of this difference. First, an important part is accounted for by a nonrecurring expenditure of about $1.4 billion for the increased quota of the United States in the International Monetary Fund, which is recommended for the fiscal year 1959. Second, during the current fiscal year the Federal National Mortgage Association will purchase most of the mortgages for which commitments were made under the housing legislation enacted in April 1958. Net purchases of mortgages under this special assistance program in fiscal 1960 will be about $360 million less than in fiscal 1959. Third, all the budget transactions in 1960 of the Federal National Mortgage Association, and those of the Export-Import Bank as well, are being put on a self-sustaining basis by aligning new credit extensions more closely with collections on outstanding credits and by sales of portfolio assets. The resulting reduction in net budget expenditures between 1959 and 1960 will be over $300 million for the Federal National Mortgage Association and almost $250 million for the Export-Import Bank. Fourth, the expiration on April 1, 1959 of the law providing for a temporary extension of the duration of unemployment compensation payments will result in a decrease of over $400 million in expenditures in the fiscal year 1960. Fifth, the termination of the acreage reserve will reduce expenditures in the fiscal year 1960 by more than $700 million, although a partially offsetting increase will occur in the conservation reserve program. Sixth, proposals will be made for rate adjustments to cover the costs of operating the postal establishment, except for specified public services; these proposals will lower budget expenditures by $350 million. This reduction, together with nonrecurring items affecting budget expenditures in the fiscal year 1959—retroactive pay increases and higher payments for transportation—account for the decrease of the postal deficit by $645 million in the fiscal year 1960. Seventh, the funding of retroactive pay increases to Federal civilian employees, apart from the payments to postal employees mentioned above, added some $250 million to expenditures. These payments were made mainly in the fiscal year 1959 and do not recur in the new fiscal year. Finally, expenditures of other Federal departments and agencies will be reduced, to the extent that this is consistent with the satisfactory performance of their respective responsibilities. 49 Although the projected expenditures are lower in the aggregate, they include increased outlays for many programs that support the growth of our economy and assist growth elsewhere in the Free World. Outlays for research and development will be increased over $600 million, with emphasis on space exploration, peaceful as well as military uses of atomic energy, and basic science. Federal expenditures to improve education, especially in science and mathematics, will rise significantly. Federal expenditures for the conservation and development of land and water resources (including agricultural) will rise almost $200 million. All Federal expenditures for civil public works—including grants to States, mainly from the Highway Trust Fund—will be increased $700 million; at $5.2 billion, they will be higher than ever before. Larger expenditures are estimated for other grants and long-term loans to foster community development. Expenditures by the Federal Aviation Agency, primarily for the construction and operation of new facilities for the Federal airways system, will increase almost $100 million. Programs will be proposed for assistance to areas where unemployment that is considerably above the national average persists, and for grants to localities for the modernization of airports; however, the latter will not affect expenditures until after the fiscal year 1960. Higher expenditures are expected for economic and technical cooperation under the Mutual Security Program, but because of a reduction in the military assistance portion, expenditures for this Program as a whole will be decreased. The revenues projected in the 1960 budget are substantially higher than those estimated for the current fiscal year, reflecting the confident expectation that economic recovery will be extended into the calendar year 1959 and beyond. Certain actions by the Congress are needed to give effect to the 1960 financial plan. First, changes are required in the laws affecting Federal revenues: the corporate income tax and excise taxes on automobiles and parts, cigarettes, distilled spirits, and wines and beer should be continued at their present levels for one year beyond June 30, 1959; a temporary increase in the Federal motor fuel tax should be enacted to continue construction of the Interstate Highway System on a self-sustaining basis; the tax on aviation gasoline should be raised, and a similar rate for jet fuels, now tax free, should be enacted, to help pay the Federal cost of operating the airways; and a revision in postal rates should be authorized. The Congress has been requested to enact a permanent plan for the taxation of life insurance companies, and it will be asked to adjust present laws relating to the taxation of cooperatives. The Congress will also be requested to specify the treatment processes which shall be considered as mining for the purpose of computing percentage depletion allowances in the case of mineral products. This amendment, prompted by court decisions and similar to that recommended last year for cement and clay products, would prevent an unintended extension of depletion allowances to the sales price of finished products. Recommendations will also be made for certain additional user charges. Second, the Congress will be requested to grant wider administrative authority for setting maximum interest rates for various credit programs and to make certain adjustments in rates. These include the Veterans Administration programs of home loan guaranties and direct home loans, the rental (including armed services) and cooperative housing programs of the Federal Housing Administration (Sections 207, 803, and 213 of the National Housing Act), the college housing program of the Housing and Home Finance Agency, the loan program of the Rural Electrification Administration,, and ship mortgage loans of the Maritime Administration. The flow of private funds into home construction and other types of building is restricted when market interest rates are high relative to the legally prescribed ceiling rates; as a result, the volume of construction is restricted and an increased part of its financing is shifted to the Federal Government. Third, improvements are needed in the procedures by which appropriation bills arc enacted into law. The Congress will be requested to grant the President authority to veto, or reduce the amounts for, specific items in appropriation bills and in other bills authorizing expenditures. OTHER GOVERNMENTAL FINANCIAL POLICIES Acceptance by the Congress of the expenditure level of the 1960 budget would be the most important single step in discharging Government's responsibility to help preserve the stability of prices and costs through prudent management of its own financial affairs. Moreover, adherence to the proposed expenditure program would provide an opportunity, as budgetary results improve with economic recovery, to promote economic growth by making a start on constructive tax reduction and reform. The growth of the American economy was significantly aided by the 1954 tax changes. But our tax burden remains heavy, and in important respects Federal taxes are levied in ways that tend to weaken the incentives on which we mainly rely for vigorous economic expansion. If our economy grows at the expected rate, and if Government spending is held within the limits set in the proposed budget, a significant additional step in tax reduction and reform can be taken in the reasonably foreseeable future. Federal debt management policies are also pertinent to the achievement of sustainable economic growth without inflation. In the formulation of these policies, account must be taken of the necessarily far-reaching impact on the economy of the continual refinancing of large parts of the present debt of $283 billion, of which $228.5 billion is held by the public. The magnitude of this refinancing problem is indicated by the fact that $49 billion of the marketable debt outstanding at the end of 1958, exclusive of $24 billion of 13- and 26-week Treasury bills, will mature in 1959. This is in addition to the cash borrowing in the market required by seasonal needs and by the redemption of nonmarketable debt. Insofar as possible, financial requirements will be met in ways designed to reduce the frequency of Treasury issues and to improve the structure of the debt. By offering securities which are attractive to investors outside the banks, particularly to savings institutions, pension funds, individuals, and other long-term investors, the Treasury can avoid undue reliance on bank credit and thus assist, rather than interfere with, the exercise of monetary policies appropriate to the maintenance of sustainable economic growth and price stability. The 4 percent bonds due in 1980 that were announced in January 1959 are an example of such offerings. As indicated in Chapter 2, a large part of the financing of the 1959 deficit had already been completed by the end of the calendar year 1958 without impairing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Completion of needed financing will bring the public debt to $285 billion before June 30, 1959, and it will be necessary to renew the request made of the Congress last summer for a permanent debt limit of $285 billion—$2 billion higher than at present. Adherence to the 1960 financial plan and receipt of revenues as expected would obviate the need for a larger increase in the permanent debt limit. But a temporary increase of an additional amount will be needed to cover heavy borrowing requirements in the first half of the next fiscal year. These borrowings would be repaid, however, before June 30, 1960. Finally, the maintenance of a framework of price stability requires the avoidance of excessive extension of credit. Responsibility for monetary and credit policies rests with the Federal Reserve authorities who have independent status within Government. However, to help coordinate the monetary and credit policies so determined with the economic and financial policies of the Executive Branch of Government, frequent meetings of principal officials have been held for the exchange of views. These meetings have proved useful and will be continued. ADDITIONAL GOVERNMENTAL ACTIONS To MAINTAIN PRICE STABILITY Adherence to the financial plan presented in the 1960 budget and the pursuit of appropriate monetry, credit, and debt management policies would help attain rising production and employment at stable prices. Governmental actions in other areas can also help to maintain price stability as our economy expands. First, the Congress is requested to amend the Employment Act of 1946 to make reasonable price stability an explicit goal of Federal economic policy, coordinate with the goals of maximum production, employment, and purchasing power now specified in that Act. Such an amendment would strengthen Government's hand in restraining inflationary forces and would help build a public opinion favorable to the adoption and vigorous application of needed measures. This amendment would make it clear that Government is as determined to direct its policies toward maintenance of price stability as it is to employ them in combating economic contraction. Second, a Cabinet Committee on Price Stability for Economic Growth is being established to follow governmental and private activities affecting costs, prices, and economic growth; initiate studies by Government or by groups of private citizens of price stability in relation to economic growth; seek ways to enhance productivity in the American economy and to build a better public understanding of the need for reasonable price stability in a free society and of the conditions necessary to achieve this objective. Third, a Committee on Government Activities Affecting Prices and Costs is being established, to follow the operation of all relevant Federal programs, including those involving procurement, construction, stockpiling, and commodity price support, and to make recommendations to the appropriate departments or agencies or to the President for the administration of these programs in line with the objective of reasonable price stability. Fourth, questions concerning the level and movement of consumer prices, changes in wage rates and earnings, and changes in productivity have assumed such significance in our economy as to require more and better statistics concerning them. Accordingly, the Bureau of the Budget has been requested to accelerate programs for enlargement and improvement of public information on prices, wages and related costs, and productivity. ADDITIONAL MEASURES FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH The Federal policies and actions outlined above will do much to assure a vigorous growth of our economy, free from inflation. However, additional measures should be taken by Government to promote the Nation's economic strength and well-being. Competition The vitality of our economic system depends in large part on vigorous competition, which would be enhanced by certain improvements in our antitrust laws. The Congress is urged to act favorably on five proposals, as follows: to authorize Federal regulation of the merger of banking institutions accomplished through the acquisition of assets; to require notification to the antitrust agencies when firms of significant size that are engaged in interstate commerce propose to merge; to grant the Attorney General power to issue civil investigative demands under which the necessary facts may be elicited when civil procedures are contemplated in antitrust cases; to make cease-and-desist orders issued by the Federal Trade Commission for violations of the Clayton Act final unless appealed to the courts; and to authorize the Federal Trade Commission to seek preliminary injunctions in merger cases where a violation of law is likely. 489916 O—59 5 53 Small Business Legislative actions taken last year will greatly enlarge the opportunities for the formation of new businesses and yield important benefits to existing small concerns and to the economy generally. To facilitate the access of small business concerns to capital and credit, the Small Business Administration was made permanent; its loan authorization was substantially increased; and it was authorized to help State and local development companies extend financial and other aids to small businesses, and to license and purchase the obligations of investment companies especially organized to provide capital on a long-term debt and equity basis to small businesses. Small concerns may also be expected to benefit from certain changes in the tax laws enacted by the last Congress. These include ordinary-loss rather than capital-loss treatment for losses incurred on the investment of private funds in small business investment companies; similar treatment of losses incurred by small business investment companies or by an original investor in a small business concern (up to a limited amount) ; allowance to small business investment companies of a 100 percent tax deduction for intercorporate dividends received, rather than the 85 percent generally permitted; provision of an additional depreciation allowance for the acquisition of new and used tangible personal property; the option for certain small corporations of having their profits taxed directly, as if they were partnerships; the option to pay estate taxes over a period of up to 10 years, where the estate consists largely of investments in closely held business concerns; extension of the carryback of net operating losses from two to three years; and an increase, from $60,000 to $100,000, in the minimum accumulated earnings credit. Other steps taken in 1958 include an Act to improve the opportunities of small business concerns in obtaining Government procurement contracts, and a new program of the Small Business Administration to facilitate the sharing by small companies in Government research and development contracts. The Cabinet Committee on Small Business, which was established in 1956, continues to follow closely the position of small firms in the economy. A recommendation made by the Committee in its Second Progress Report is called to the attention of the Congress for favorable action, namely that the Securities and Exchange Act be amended to extend the privilege of the simplified Regulation A filings to a wider range of security issues. Although significant benefits for small business concerns may be expected from the actions already taken and from those proposed, the long-run health of small concerns also requires an environment of satisfactory labor-management relations and opportunities to retain a larger share of business earnings. The first of these conditions would be advanced by enactment of the proposals made below for changes in legislation governing labor-management relations. The second would be advanced by adherence to the expenditure level proposed in the budget for the fiscal year 1960, which 54 would bring closer the time when additional steps can be taken to make our tax system more conducive to economic growth. Personal Welfare Substantial progress has been made by the States in recent years in raising the standards of the unemployment insurance system. Benefits have been increased and their potential duration lengthened. Coverage has been broadened to include more than four-fifths of all employees in nonagricultural establishments. Still further improvements are necessary and desirable. Enactment of legislation is requested to provide for extending the coverage of the system to employees of firms having fewer than four workers; to make its benefits available to employees of Federal instrumentalities, nonprofit organizations, and certain other groups; to bring the provisions of the District of Columbia system up to those recommended for the States; and to provide for extending the system to workers in Puerto Rico. Benefits should be raised so that the majority of covered workers will be eligible for payments equal to at least half their regular earnings; and the maximum duration of benefits should be lengthened to 26 weeks for any person who qualifies for any benefit and who remains unemployed that long. These steps would greatly enhance the contribution that the unemployment compensation system makes to our economy's capacity to resist recession. During the recent recession, this system offset directly about onethird of the decline in wage and salary payments. Supplemented by temporary legislation providing longer duration of eligibility for employees who exhausted their entitlement to benefits, unemployment insurance payments substantially alleviated hardships arising from loss of income. In an industrial economy, occupational accidents may result in hardship for an employee and his dependents. It is therefore again recommended that the States, which have primary responsibility, strengthen their systems of workmen's compensation. Certain legislative improvements are required in programs that lie within Federal jurisdiction. Proposals will be made to the Congress to extend the coverage of the Fair Labor Standards Act. Favorable consideration is again requested for legislation to revise the ambiguous and outmoded provisions of the 8-hour laws applying to Federal and federally assisted construction projects and to carry out the principle of equal pay for equal work without discrimination based on sex. The Economic Report of 1958 outlined the responsibility of the Government to maintain a framework of laws to protect the basic rights of the individual, to promote integrity in labor-management relationships, and to foster better industrial relations. Proposed legislation to accomplish these purposes having failed of enactment, the Congress will again be requested to require reporting and disclosure of financial dealings between employers and employee representatives and their agents, and to 55 require public reports of union finances, organization, and procedures. Requested legislation will also prescribe standards to promote democratic procedures in union affairs, including the election of union officers, and to correct abuses in the supervision of the affairs of subordinate bodies. Modifications will be proposed in the law governing secondary boycotts, organizational and recognition picketing, and representation elections, and authority will be requested for the States to act in labor-management disputes where the National Labor Relations Board declines jurisdiction. Legislation will also be requested to correct shortcomings in the Welfare and Pension Plans Disclosure Act enacted by the 85th Congress. Area Assistance Despite the forward economic strides of the Nation since the war, some communities have suffered substantial and persistent unemployment, when measured against national experience. Federal assistance to these communities is required not only to mitigate the hardships of individuals and families but also to provide for the use of underutilized resources, to the enhancement of the national welfare. A program of assistance through development loans and through grants for technical studies will be recommended to the Congress in order that these communities may share in the general economic advance. By design and administration, the program would seek to complement and reinforce community efforts to help themselves, to encourage maximum participation by State and local agencies and private investment institutions, and to create new job opportunities instead of merely transferring jobs from one locality to another. The program would also provide technical aid to towns heavily dependent on a major industry and to rural low-income areas, to help them achieve greater economic stability through diversification. Agriculture Recommendations will be made to the Congress by the Executive with a view to reducing the cost of price stabilization operations, stopping the increase of surplus stocks, and making progress in the reduction of accumulated supplies. Major revisions are overdue in the legislation relating to these agricultural programs. In their present form, these statutes have the effect of adding many billions of dollars annually to the Federal budget. Net budget expenditures for agricultural price and income support increased from an annual average of $3.5 billion during the fiscal years 1955-58 to an estimated $5.4 billion in the fiscal year 1959. What is more, experience has demonstrated that it is very difficult to foretell reliably how much the Federal Government will be required to expend in a given fiscal period under what are essentially open-end commitments for price support, a fact that greatly complicates the management of the Federal Government's fiscal affairs. 56 Even these large expenditures have not brought farm output into line with commercial demands at home and abroad while maintaining and stabilizing farm income. Ever since the Korean conflict, the aggregate output of our farms has exceeded these demands by subs antial amounts. Steps taken to reduce surpluses while protecting farm incomes—Commodity Credit Corporation support of prices at slightly declining minimum levels, retirement of acreage from cultivation, and large exports under loan or subsidy arrangements—have not succeeded in preventing an increase in surplus stocks. By June 30, 1959, there will be a record carryover of 1.3 billion bushels of wheat, the equivalent of more than 2 years of domestic requirements, and a carryover of 1.8 billion bushels of corn. Stocks of cotton remain excessive; stocks of tobacco and rice are large; and if it were not for the surplus disposal program, stocks of dairy products and of fats and oils would be high. The investment of the Commodity Credit Corporation in price supported commodities is expected to rise to more than $9 billion by June 30, 1959, and to almost $10.5 billion by June 30, 1960. To carry out existing commitments on price support activities will probably require use of most of the Corporation's borrowing authority of $14.5 billion. Expenditures of the Federal Government for storage, transportation, and interest on these surplus holdings are estimated at $850 million for the fiscal year 1959 and at $1.2 billion for the fiscal year 1960. The recent sharp increase in the cost of our agricultural programs is due in part to exceptionally favorable crop conditions in 1958. But a major part of the increase is due to the programs themselves. These are not properly adjusted to the rapidity with which farm technology is improving. Remedial legislation should be enacted without delay. Even though action taken at this time can become effective only in the fiscal year 1961, steps to bring the price stabilization expenditures of the Federal Government under control and to reduce them materially are urgently needed. Actually, the majority of farm people derive little or no benefit from our agricultural price support legislation. Cattle ranchers, producers of poultry and eggs, and growers of fruits and vegetables operate their farms today practically without price supports. Only some 1.5 million of our commercial farmers are the recipients of price support outlays in any material amounts, and, within this group, those with the higher incomes are the main beneficiaries. More than 2.5 million farmers—whose annual sales are less than $2,500 and who produce each year only about 9 percent of our marketed farm products—receive only very small supplements, or none at all, to their incomes from Government expenditures for price support. Foreign Economic Policy Next to maintaining the mutual security of the Free World, the chief concern of the United States in its foreign economic policy is to promote conditions favorable to the exchange of goods, services, technology, and 57 capital among nations, and to assist in economic growth and development. The efforts to rebuild and expand the economy of Western Europe and Japan, to which we have contributed so much, have met with remarkable success. We can now look forward to increasingly effective participation by the industrial nations of Europe in the task of supplying credit and investment capital, along with goods and services, to the less developed areas of the world. The United States will continue to share with friendly nations its advanced technology and the achievements of its scientific research in public health, resource development, agriculture, industry, and commerce. This policy will be continued through our technical assistance programs, as well as through international agencies. The impressive gains of the European economies have been accompanied by efforts at removing hindrances to foreign trade. At the end of 1958, the leading European countries made their currencies convertible for nonresidents. Simultaneously, the European Payments Union was replaced by the European Monetary Agreement, which had been prepared by the Organization for European Economic Cooperation several years earlier, to become effective when currency convertibility measures were taken. Although these countries have not given up their foreign exchange control, their step implies the intention of proceeding further with the removal of discriminatory controls and other import restrictions, beyond the liberalization measures adopted in recent months by the United Kingdom, France, and others. The European Economic Community of six continental countries, which came into existence on January 1, 1958, has lowered duties by 10 percent and liberalized quota restrictions as a first move in connection with the development of its common market. Some of these concessions have been extended to other countries. The United States is favorably disposed toward such regional reduction and eventual elimination of trade barriers; but as a signatory to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, it insists on the principle that such regional arrangements must lead to the creation of more favorable trade relations with other countries. The new authority provided by the Congress last year by the four-year extension of the Trade Agreements Act will be used in further efforts to reduce trade barriers on a reciprocal basis, and the enlarged loan authority of the Export-Import Bank will promote United States exports as well as contribute to economic growth abroad. The increasing participation of other industrial countries in financing the flow of trade and the development of industrially retarded countries is reassuring and welcome, inasmuch as additional economic resources are thus brought into action. However, the task of financing sound and sustainable economic development in large areas of Latin America, Africa, and Asia is of such scope and urgency that it requires joint efforts. In this connec- tion, the Government of the United States, together with other members of the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, is proposing that the resources of those institutions be enlarged. Special legislation will be proposed to the Congress. The United States is exploring the feasibility of cooperating with other countries in their efforts to establish regional agreements on freer trade and economic development. An inter-American development banking institution is under consideration. The United States has also expressed its readiness to support a regional Arab development institution, should the Arab states desire it and support it with their own capital. Also under study is an International Development Association, which would be affiliated with the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and would extend to less developed countries loans repayable wholly or partially in the currency of the borrowing country. Requests for authorizations for some of these programs will be submitted in due time to the Congress. The Development Loan Fund, which began in 1958 to extend loans for economic growth in less developed countries, needs additional obligational authority. Authorization for sales of surplus agricultural commodities for foreign currency under Title I of Public Law 480 and for the donation of such commodities for famine relief and other assistance under Title II expires December 31, 1959. In view of the continued existence of heavy surpluses of farm products and the desirability of using such stocks constructively, the authority should be extended. CONTINUING PROGRAMS FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND IMPROVEMENT The need for new programs or for legislative changes in those already in existence should not cause us to neglect the contributions to economic improvement that are made by continuing programs that return to the attention of the Congress only with respect to the amount of funds they annually require or for occasional legislative revision. Under the 1960 budget, the Federal Government will continue activities which will strengthen the Nation in health, education, scientific development, transportation, and other important areas. The Federal Government's efforts will, of course, be supplemented by the efforts of State and local governments and by countless private undertakings. This blend of public and private action will enable us to take full advantage of the opportunities that lie before us for an improvement in the level of living. Nowhere are these opportunities more plainly registered than in recent Census Bureau projections of population growth, which has proved a sure avenue of economic progress in American circumstances. The lowest of these new projections indicates a rise to 202.5 million persons by 1970, from the present 175 million; the highest, a rise to 219.5 million. The corresponding estimates for 1975 are 215.8 million and 243.9 million. 59 Projections for selected age groups suggest the magnitude of the developing demand for schooling. By mid-1962, children of elementary school age (5-13 years) should number about 34.5 million, 3.3 million more than the corresponding total for mid-1958; and the annual growth of this group may exceed 1 million during the remainder of the 1960's. The number of children of high school age (14-17 years), which was about 10.6 million in mid-1958, may increase to 12.9 million by mid-1962 and to 15.9 million by mid-1970. By 1962, the number of college-age persons (18-21) may be about 10.7 million; in 1975, about 16.3 million, or twice the 1957 figure. Education To discharge fully their traditional obligation to the younger generation, State and local governments will obviously have to increase their efforts greatly to provide needed school buildings, equipment, and teachers, particularly for secondary education. State and private institutions will have to do likewise to accommodate greater numbers of college and graduate students. In the areas of secondary and higher education, additional support is being requested for the science and education programs administered by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Projected expenditures of the first of these agencies for science education during the fiscal year 1960 are almost one-fifth greater than the estimated expenditures for 1959 and four times the 1958 outlay. The increased expenditures would be made for graduate and faculty fellowships and for training high school and college teachers of science and mathematics. Further Federal assistance to secondary and higher education is provided under the National Defense Education Act of 1958, through contributions to student loan funds; matching grants to States for equipment needed in teaching science, mathematics, and foreign languages; fellowships for graduate study; grants to States for guidance, counseling, and testing services; and support of training programs for foreign language teachers. Two other important features of the Act are the authorization of Federal financial assistance to States for improving educational statistics, and the authorization of a unit in the Federal Government to provide or arrange for abstracting, translating, and other services to improve the distribution of scientific information. Personal Security and Health Programs designed to enhance personal security also contribute to the Nation's economic strength and well-being. Protection from want in old age, for families losing breadwinners, and for persons permanently disabled is afforded by the Federal Social Security system. Broadening of the coverage of the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program in recent years to nearly 90 percent of all persons in paid employment, together with 60 the normal increase in the number of persons eligible for benefits, has increased benefit payments from $5.7 billion in 1956 to $7.3 billion in 1957, and to an annual rate of $8.9 billion at the end of 1958. The increase in 1958 played an important role in helping to maintain the flow of incomes during recession. Benefits are currently being paid to more than 12 million persons, and the average monthly benefit for old age is approximately $66. Amendments adopted in 1958 increased benefit amounts, which had been practically unchanged since 1954, by 7 percent, effective in January 1959. Taxes were also increased in order to strengthen the actuarial basis of the program. Federal contributions to State-operated public assistance programs in behalf of the aged, the blind, the disabled, and dependent children will continue to rise in fiscal year 1960. An Advisory Council authorized by recent legislation is studying the appropriate distribution of financial responsibility between the Federal Government and the States. Through the Rural Development Program initiated in 1955 and carried forward through existing agencies under the guidance of an interagency committee of the Federal Government, efforts are being made to aid farm families most in need of assistance. The program now reaches more than 100 rural counties. Beneficial results in the form of increased job opportunities, improved farm practices, and higher standards of living are already evident. In the area of health, sharply increasing outlays have been made in recent years for the medical research and training programs administered by the National Institutes of Health in the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Sizable funds have also been expended to assist the construction of hospitals and health research facilities. Expenditures will increase further in the fiscal year 1960. The budget also provides larger sums for the enforcement of the food and drug laws, including administration of the new chemical additives amendment enacted in 1958. Construction and Transportation The increase in population and changes in the location patterns of people and industry will require greater public and private investment in fields other than education. The formation of new families and the continuing movement from cities will require additional residential construction and places of worship and commercial and community facilities of all kinds, including utilities. Responsibility for these undertakings rests largely on private individuals and firms, but Government programs of loan insurance and guaranty make an important contribution to home construction. The effectiveness of these programs would be materially increased by favorable action on the proposals made to the Congress to grant greater discretionary authority to the Executive for determining maximum interest rates on certain insured, guaranteed, and direct loans. Other proposals for changes 61 in present laws affecting housing and home financing and the program of Federal assistance to urban renewal projects will be made to the Congress. Construction of Federal-aid highways, which form a vital part of the network of roads connecting our cities, is increasing rapidly. The interstate highway program, enacted in 1956, authorizes construction of 41,000 miles of limited-access roads linking 90 percent of all cities with 50,000 or more inhabitants, as well as many smaller places along the way. The Federal share of the cost is financed out of revenues obtained from highway users. Proposals are being made to keep the program on this self-supporting basis. In the calendar year 1958, total capital outlays for Federal-aid and all other new highway construction reached $6.2 billion, about $600 million more than in 1957 and about three and one-half times the outlay of a decade ago. Still higher expenditures may be expected in the present calendar year and in several succeeding years. Recent legislation will also strengthen the air, rail, and waterway components of the Nation's transportation system. A unified Federal Aviation Agency will allocate air space, develop and operate a common system of navigation facilities for civil and military aircraft, and make and enforce safety regulations for civilian aviation. The Transportation Act of 1958 and the repeal of Federal excise taxes on the transportation of property, also enacted last year, will help improve the physical and financial condition of the railroads. The St. Lawrence Seaway, which will open in the spring, will provide deep water transportation almost half-way across the continent, reducing shipping costs and directly serving eight States that have almost two-fifths of the population and constitute the agricultural and industrial heart of the land. User tolls will make the Seaway, constructed with Federal funds in a joint venture with the Canadian Government, a self-liquidating project. Water Projects and Mineral Exploration Many public and private programs are improving the Nation's base of material resources. Water and related power projects under way will facilitate the economic development of the Western states. Federal expenditures for such projects are much higher than they were a few years ago, and further increases are expected in 1960 and 1961. Progress toward economical conversion of saline to fresh water by chemical and other techniques will be assisted by 1958 legislation for the construction of demonstration plants and by increased appropriations for the fiscal years 1959 and 1960. Other contributions to the resource base are envisaged. In 1958, legislation authorized a continuing program of assistance to minerals exploration. The Congress is requested to enact a long-range program for conservation of the Nation's supply of helium gas, encouraging maximum private participation in, and financing of, this endeavor. Research and Development The Nation's technological base is being strengthened by Government programs in support of scientific research and development. Many of these programs, though undertaken initially or primarily to maintain the Nation's military might, contribute increasingly to peaceful technology. Thus, the billions of dollars spent annually for military research and development are extending the horizons of civilian industry, providing experience for professional and other skilled workers, and expanding private opportunities for investment in new materials, processes, and products. The benefits to be derived from research and development activities can be enhanced by closer working relations between Government and private interests. Large companies and universities already participate extensively in Government contract or Government-supported research, supplementing the substantial endeavors conducted on their own account. The research capabilities of small companies are necessarily limited, but many small firms have formal programs under way and some have achieved notable success. Explicit provision for the encouragement of research—direct and Government contract—by small businesses was made in the 1958 revision of the Small Business Act. Most current research and development activity involves the useful application of known principles rather than the search for new avenues of fundamental advance. Greater attention can appropriately be given by private enterprise to the advantages obtainable from basic research. Meanwhile, Government expenditures for basic research are rising. For all agencies, they will amount to about $500 million in the fiscal year 1960. In the same year, expenditures by the National Science Foundation for basic research will be about one-third above the figure for 1959 and more than double that for 1958. In the field of atomic energy, important strides have been taken toward the adaptation of military technology to peaceful uses. A full-scale prototype atomic power reactor was operated in 1958, and other plants, of commercial size, are being planned and built under cooperative industry-Government arrangements. The wider industrial, agricultural, and medical use of radioisotopes and radiation sources is being stimulated. Incentives are being provided to private organizations for the commercial undertaking of activities heretofore performed only by the Government. Technical and financial assistance is being given to the European Atomic Energy Community, and through bilateral agreements to separate nations, in the development of power reactors and provision of small-scale reactors for research and training. Other efforts are being made through the International Atomic Energy Agency and through diplomatic negotiations to realize more fully for the world the peaceful possibilities inherent in nuclear fission. And progress is being made in cooperative international research on the generation of electric power by the controlled release of fusion energy—a project which, if successful, promises great benefits to mankind. 63 Appendix A SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS IN THE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT Summary of Recommendations in the Economic Report of the President I. GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL POLICIES a) Continue for one year beyond June 30, 1959, the present tax rate on corporate income and the excise taxes on automobiles and parts, cigarettes, distilled spirits, and wines and beer. [Page 50] b) Increase temporarily the Federal tax on motor fuels, raise the tax on aviation gasoline, and impose a similar tax on jet fuels. [Page 50] c) Authorize a revision in postal rates. [Page 50] d) Enact a permanent plan for the taxation of life insurance companies and adjust the present laws relating to the taxation of cooperatives. [Page 50] e) Specify the treatment processes which shall be considered as mining for the purpose of computing percentage depletion allowances in the case of mineral products. [Page 50] f) Grant wider administrative authority in setting interest rates and make certain adjustments in rates for various credit programs, as follows: Veterans Administration programs of guaranteed and direct home loans; Federal Housing Administration programs of rental (including armed services) and cooperative housing (Sections 207, 803, and 213 of the National Housing Act) ; the college housing program of the Housing and Home Finance Agency; the loan program of the Rural Electrification Administration; and the ship mortgage loan program of the Maritime Administration. [Page 51 ] g) Provide the President with authority to veto or reduce the amounts for specific items in appropriation bills and in other bills authorizing expenditures. [Page 51] h) Raise the permanent debt limit by $2 billion, to $285 billion, and authorize a further temporary increase for the fiscal year 1960. [Page 52] II. MEASURES To PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH PRICE STABILITY a) Amend the Employment Act of 1946 to make price stability an explicit goal of Federal economic policy. [Page 52] b) Extend Federal regulation to bank mergers accomplished through the acquisition of assets. [Page 53] c) Require notification to the antitrust agencies of proposed mergers by businesses of significant size engaged in interstate commerce. [Page 53] d) Empower the Attorney General to issue civil investigative demands in antitrust cases when civil procedures are contemplated. [Page 53] e) Make Federal Trade Commission cease-and-desist orders final when issued for violations of the Clayton Act, unless appealed to the courts. [Page53] f) Authorize the Federal Trade Commission to seek preliminary injunctions in merger cases where a violation of law is likely. [Page 53] g) Amend the Securities and Exchange Act to extend the privilege of Regulation A filings to a wider range of security issues. [Page 54] h) Enact a program that will provide assistance, through development loans and grants for technical studies, to communities that have suffered substantial and persistent unemployment; and technical aid for the diversification of rural low-income areas and of towns heavily dependent on a major industry. [Page 56] i) Enact a long-range program to conserve helium gas. [Page 62] III. PERSONAL WELFARE a) Provide for extending the coverage of the Federal-State unemployment insurance system to employees of firms having fewer than four workers, to employees of Federal instrumentalities, nonprofit organizations and certain other groups, and to workers in Puerto Rico. [Page 55] b) Bring the provisions of the District of Columbia unemployment insurance system up to the standards recommended for the States. [Page 55] c) Strengthen State systems of workmen's compensation. (State responsibility.) [Page 55] d) Extend the coverage of the Fair Labor Standards Act. [Page 55] e) Improve the 8-hour laws applicable to Federal and federally assisted construction projects. [Page 55] f) Carry out the principle of equal pay for equal work without discrimination based on sex. [Page 55] g) Require reporting and disclosure of financial dealings between employers and employee representatives and their agents, and the filing of public reports on the status of union finances, organization, and procedures. [Pages 55-56] h) Prescribe standards to promote democratic procedures in union affairs. [Page 56] i) Modify the law governing secondary boycotts, organizational and recognition picketing, and representation elections; and provide that States be given jurisdiction in labor-management disputes where the National Labor Relations Board declines to exercise authority. [Page 56] j) Correct shortcomings in the Welfare and Pension Plans Disclosure Act. [Page 56] 68 IV. FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICY a) Enlarge the resources of the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. [Pages 58-59] b) Provide additional authorization for the Development Loan Fund. [Page 59] c) Extend the authority for sales of surplus agricultural commodities for foreign currencies and for the donation of such commodities for famine relief and other assistance. [Page 59] 489916 0—59 6 69 Appendix B REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1958 Letter of Transmittal DECEMBER 30, 1958. The PRESIDENT. SIR: The Council of Economic Advisers submits this Annual Report for calendar year 1958 in accordance with the requirements of Congress, as set forth in Section 4 (d) of the Employment Act of 1946. Respectfully, RAYMOND J. SAULNIER, Chairman. KARL BRANDT. PAUL W. McCRACKEN. 73 Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of Economic Advisers During 1958 The Council's attention in the early months of 1958 was focused largely on measures to help arrest the economic decline; after April, attention was directed increasingly to measures that would help promote a sound recovery in the economy and a high and sustainable rate of long-term expansion. Through its Chairman, the Council kept the President informed of economic developments and their policy and program implications. The Chairman attended all Cabinet meetings and reported frequently to the Cabinet on economic developments and policy. The Chairman also attended, on direction of the President, all meetings of the National Security Council at which economic questions were discussed. The Council was called upon frequently during the year to appraise proposals for legislative or administrative actions, with special regard to the effect they might have on the growth and stability of the economy. Through its membership on interdepartmental committees and task forces, and through frequent consultation with Government and private agencies, the Council participated in the formulation of policies affecting economic growth and stability. A Council member serves on the Council on Foreign Economic Policy and the Civil and Defense Mobilization Board. The Chairman of the Council is also Chairman of the Cabinet Committee on Small Business and serves on the President's Special Committee on Financial Policies for Postattack Operations. Council staff members serve on ad hoc committees of the latter committee. The Council conferred frequently with the State Department on foreign economic questions, and its senior staff economist on international economic matters attended most meetings of the National Advisory Council on International Monetary and Financial Problems. The Council participated in a number of international meetings during the year and continued its cooperation with various international agencies. In April a member of the staff participated in the Thirteenth Plenary Session of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe held in Geneva, Switzerland; and a member of the Council, accompanied by senior staff economists, attended two meetings under the auspices of the Organization for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC) in Paris. In July, the Council submitted a Survey of Economic Developments in the United States for the Annual Review of the OEEC; and in February, it submitted responses to the United Nations' annual questionnaire on eco- 75 nomic developments and policies. In December, a member of the Council staff participated in a meeting of the "Economic Experts" group of the OEEC, held in Paris. Two members of the staff met frequently with foreign groups studying in this country under the auspices of the International Cooperation Administration. During the year, the Council met with representatives of business concerns, financial houses, and consumer organizations, and representatives of farm and other groups to discuss business conditions, the economic outlook, and policy questions relating to the economy's growth and stability. The Chairman participated in the semiannual meetings of the Business Advisory Council of the Department of Commerce, and a staff member attended meetings of the technical consultants to that body. In accordance with the Employment Act, the Council assisted the President in the preparation of the annual Economic Report. This Report, which is transmitted to the Congress in January, reviews the economic developments of the past year, including the steps taken by Government to promote the economy's growth and stability; appraises the current position of the economy and the outlook for the year ahead; and makes recommendations to the Congress and suggestions to the States, local communities, and private groups for actions and policies to help-achieve the goals set forth in the Employment Act. It also includes an extensive appendix of statistical information bearing on the United States economy. Twenty-nine thousand copies of the January 1958 Economic Report of the President were published, of which half were sold to the public through the Superintendent of Documents. Copies were supplied to all members of the Congress and were made available to depository libraries throughout the country. The Council also prepares Economic Indicators, a monthly compendium of current economic statistics. This widely used periodical is published by the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress. Like the Economic Report of the President, it is distributed to all members of the Congress and to depository libraries. An additional 6,500 copies of Economic Indicators go to paying subscribers. Council Membership The present members of the Council are Raymond J. Saulnier, Paul W. McCracken, and Karl Brandt. Dr. Saulnier, Professor of Economics on leave from Barnard College, Columbia University, and from the National Bureau of Economic Research, where he is Director of the Financial Research Program, has served as a consultant to the Council from 1953 to 1955, as a member of the Council since April 1955, and as Chairman since December 1956. Dr. McCracken, Professor of Business Conditions on leave from the School of Business Administration, University of Michigan, has served as a member of the Council since December 1956 and previously as a member of the senior staff. Dr. Brandt was designated a member of the Council, on an interim appointment basis, in November 1958. He is Professor of Agricultural Economics on leave from Stanford University, where he is Associate Director of the Food Research Institute. Dr. Brandt's name will be transmitted to the Senate for confirmation when the Congress convenes in January 1959. Joseph S. Davis, Professor Emeritus of Stanford University and formerly Director of the Food Research Institute at tjiat University, resigned his membership on the Council in October 1958. Dr. Davis had served as a member of the Council from May 2, 1955. Council Staff The Council has a staff of 29 persons, of whom 14 are senior economists and statisticians. Each senior staff member is assigned one or more areas for special attention, and cooperates with other Government agencies and with business, labor, and other private groups in analyzing and evaluating economic developments. Two of the members are on leave from university faculties; all others are permanent employees. Supplementing its fulltime staff, several university economists serve the Council occasionally as consultants. The present members of the senior staff are Bernard S. Beckler, Henry W. Briefs (on leave, Georgetown University), Samuel L. Brown, Robert C. Colwell, Frances M. James, Marshall A. Kaplan, Hal B. Lary, David W. Lusher, John A. Schnittker (on leave, Kansas State College), Charles L. Schultze, Irving H. Siegel, Walter F. Stettner, Collis Stocking, and Charles A. TafT. Advisory Board on Economic Growth and Stability The Advisory Board on Economic Growth and Stability, which meets weekly under the Chairmanship of the Chairman of the Council, was established by the President in 1953 to advise with the Council on matters affecting the growth and stability of the economy. Present members of the Board are as follows: Department of State—Thomas C. Mann, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs Department of the Treasury—Julian B. Baird, Under Secretary Department of Agriculture—True D. Morse, Under Secretary Department of Commerce—Frederick H. Mueller, Under Secretary Department of Labor—James T. O'Connell, Under Secretary Department of Health, Education, and Welfare—Bertha Adkins, Under Secretary Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System—Abbot L. Mills, Member of the Board Bureau of the Budget—Roger W. Jones, Deputy Director 77 Export-Import Bank of Washington—Samuel C. Waugh, President The White House Office—Don Paarlberg, Special Assistant to the President Council of Economic Advisers—Raymond J. Saulnier, Chairman Budget for Fiscal Year 1959 For the fiscal year 1959, the Congress appropriated $375,000 for the Council's activities. A supplemental budget request for $20,000 is being made to cover part of the cost of increased salaries due under the terms of the Federal Employees Salary Increase Act of 1958. Appendix C SOME MAJOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN 1958 I. Employment and Earnings II. Prices III. Agriculture IV. Financial Developments V. Government Finances VI. United States Foreign Trade and Payments 79 I. Employment and Earnings Recession and recovery in 1957 and 1958 were clearly reflected in the Nation's labor markets. Employment declined sharply in late 1957 and early 1958. Recovery began in May and continued through the end of the year. Unemployment, which had increased to the highest levels since World War II, declined significantly after August 1958. Unemployment benefits, particularly in view of the longer duration of eligibility made possible by special temporary legislative action, played a major part in counteracting the reduction of wage income. Despite the fall of employment and the rise of unemployment, wage rates and hourly earnings continued to advance. Real weekly earnings declined through April, but recovered as the workweek was lengthened and as prices stabilized. Though infrequent for most of the year, labor disputes increased sharply in late autumn. EMPLOYMENT Total employment in nonagricultural establishments, as estimated from employers' payroll records, began to recede in August 1957, and by April 1958 it had fallen by 2.4 million, seasonally adjusted. Four-fifths of the reduction was in manufacturing, mining, and transportation, although these industries account for only two-fifths of nonfarm employment. The decline was halted in April, and employment began to rise moderately in May. The expansion continued to the end of the year, although delayed in October and November by labor disputes. In December, employment on nonfarm payrolls was 50.7 million, an increase of 700,000 from the April low figure. Part of the decline of nonfarm payroll employment during the recession was due to less extensive dual jobholding and to reduced labor turnover, as well as to the fall in the number of employed persons. Monthly estimates of the Bureau of the Census based upon household sample surveys indicated a drop of 1.3 million from July 1957 to April 1958 in the number of persons having nonfarm wage and salary jobs as their primary activity, compared with a total reduction of 2.4 million estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from employer payroll records. All of this difference cannot be accounted for, but part of it is doubtless due to the fact that persons holding two jobs, or moving from one job to another and therefore receiving pay from more than one employer, are counted only once in the household surveys but twice in the payroll records. The smaller decline of the Census estimates thus in part reflects the lessened dual jobholding and reduced labor turnover shown by other surveys. 81 Employment began to recede in several important industrial sectors before the general downturn in business that started after the middle of 1957. Moderate reductions commenced in the construction industry, in transportation, and in nondurable manufacturing as early as the middle of 1956, and in durable goods manufacturing after the end of that year. However, until mid-1957, these declines were more than offset by continued increases in nonmanufacturing sectors, especially in trade, in State and local government, and in financial and service industries. But in the late summer of 1957, reductions appeared in mining, communications, and trade, and the downward trend in employment in construction continued. TABLE C—1.—Changes in nonagricultural employment since December 1956 [Thousands of persons, seasonally adjusted data] Change Major industry group Nonagricultural employment: 2 . _ . Manufacturing Durable goods Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products (except furniture) _ Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries. _ _ ... . ._ _ .. . . Fabricated metal products (except ordnance, machinery, and transportation equipment) Machinery (except electrical) Electrical machinery. .. _ . ._. .._ . _ . _ _ . . Transportation equipment Instruments and related products... . ... _ ... . Miscellaneous manufacturing industries Nondurable goods Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures-. _. . . _ . _. . Textile-mill products Apparel and other finished textile products . Paper and allied products Printing, publishing, and allied industries . ._ .. . .. Chemicals and allied products Products of petroleum and coal. . . ._ Rubber products Leather and leather products Mining Contract construction Transportation and public utilities . December 1956 to July 1957 Julv 1957 to April 1958 April 1958 to December 1958 » 213 -2,410 682 —217 — 1 633 424 -157 — 1,327 374 —6 -29 0 — 16 -37 —7 -68 — 40 -48 -252 13 38 18 29 . 82 3 — 17 20 — 77 o —5 -143 -244 -157 -302 -26 —40 49 —23 56 98 7 7 — 60 —306 50 —39 -7 — 11 7 -32 -1 -87 -69 -19 -4 -30 -9 -28 -27 —22 -3 11 31 3 -1 —1 -4 13 23 -3 14 -3 A —6 17 — 70 -12 -105 -223 -273 -15 —74 -26 -32 14 6 -241 -29 -3 10 —36 0 Wholesale and retail trade 122 -318 Wholesale trade Retail trade. 59 63 -77 -241 -12 62 24 170 179 7 -43 178 28 94 201 13 166 -58 236 62 139 Transportation Communication Public utilities . . . . . .. . - ... Finance, insurance, and real estate Service and miscellaneous Government . . . . . Federal State and local . i . 1 1 . 1 2 Based on preliminary data for December. See Table D-22, footnote 1, for type of workers included. Source: Department of Labor. . 82 50 By the fourth quarter, the contraction had become quite general, and it was accelerating in most manufacturing industries, with particularly sharp reductions in firms producing primary metals, transportation equipment, and machinery. Steeper declines took place in the first quarter of 1958 in transportation and in construction. In financial and service industries, on the other hand, the hitherto steadily rising employment trend merely leveled out for several months, and in State and local governments, the strong employment uptrend was completely unaffected by the recession (Table C-l). Employment cutbacks were heaviest for hourly-rated production jobs in manufacturing industries. The number of such jobs declined by 1.5 million, or 12 percent, from July 1957 to April 1958, while "nonproduction" or salaried jobs declined by 100,000, or about 3 percent. The recovery of manufacturing employment since late spring has been due almost entirely to an expansion of production work; salaried employment has risen only slightly since that time. The occupational groups in general civilian employment that were most affected by the recession were operatives and related workers, and craftsmen and foremen (Table C-2). The employment of professional and technical personnel, which has followed a strong upward trend in recent years, continued to increase, rising by 400,000, or around 7 percent, between 1957 and 1958. Contraction of employment was very rapid in the early months of 1958, and was aggravated by especially unfavorable weather in February and March. Some signs of recovery appeared in April, however, as the number of jobs began to increase in construction and firmed in nondurable manufacturing. In late spring and summer, the recovery spread to durable goods manufacturing, trade, and service and financial enterprises, and by TABLE C-2.—Civilian employment, by major occupational group, 1947, 1957, and 1958 [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Major occupational group Emplovment- - .. .-. 1947 ._ 1957 1958 Change, 1957 to 1958 ..- 57, 843 65, 016 63,907 — 1, 109 Professional, technical, and kindred workers Farmers and farm managers Managers, officials, and proprietors, except farm Clerical and kindred workers Sales workers - - Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred workers Operatives and kindred workers Private household workers Service workers, except private household Farm laborers and foremen Laborers, except farm and mine 3,794 4,995 5,795 7, 200 3,394 7,754 12, 274 1,730 4,256 3,124 3,526 6, 468 3,329 6,703 9, 152 4,128 8,664 12, 530 2,098 5,534 2,730 3, 680 6 893 3,128 6,727 9 124 4, 105 8,487 11 464 2,210 5,571 2 529 3,669 425 — 201 24 — 28 —23 -177 — 1 066 112 37 — 201 — 11 Note—Annual figures shown above are averages of data for January, April, July, and October, since data prior to 1958 are available only for these months. The data represent total employment of the civilian labor force and, therefore, include proprietors and self-employed persons. See Current Population Reports, Series P-57, Xo. 193, Table 15, for list of workers included in each group. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. August employment was expanding moderately in most of the principal sectors of the economy. Extensive work stoppages in the automotive and other hard goods manufacturing industries retarded the increase of employment in the final quarter of the year. The number of employees involved in labor disputes, which had remained very low until September, rose abruptly to more than 500,000 late in that month, rose further to 525,000 in October, and was 300,000 in November. These stoppages substantially afTected the recovery of employment in the final quarter of the year through their indirect effects on supplying industries, as well as by their immediate impact on the workers and firms directly involved. Employment in agriculture, where trends are especially difficult to estimate over short periods, appears to have been unaffected by the recession. The Department of Agriculture estimates that total employment on farms was virtually unchanged in 1958. The Census Bureau, using different definitions and procedures, reports farm employment reduced by 6 percent from 1957 to 1958 (Tables D-17 and D-65). UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployment, which for two years had fluctuated narrowly around 2.8 million, or 4.2 percent of the civilian labor force, began to rise moderately, after adjustment for seasonal factors, in the third quarter of 1957. As employment fell more sharply toward the end of the year, and as the labor force continued to grow, unemployment increased more rapidly and in April 1958 exceeded 5 million. This high level of unemployment, seasonally adjusted, persisted until September, when substantial reductions began. By December 1958, unemployment had declined to 4.1 million, a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.1 percent of the labor force. The 4.0 to 4.4 percent ratio of unemployment to the civilian labor force that prevailed from the summer of 1955 to the third quarter of 1957 was considerably higher than that which prevailed before the onset of the 1953-54 recession, and was somewhat higher than before the downturn in 1948. The reductions of employment in 1957 and early 1958 resulted^ therefore, in rates of unemployment higher than those reached in the two prior recessions since World War II. However, both the recovery of employment and significant reductions of unemployment commenced relatively earlier than in 1949 or in 1954; in December, the rate of unemployment was not much different from that in the corresponding period of the 1948-50 recession and recovery, although still above the rate of the 1953-54 period. A large part of the unemployed are a swiftly changing group, during recession as well as in more prosperous times. Although total unemployment rose steeply from December 1957 to April 1958, an average of a million or more previously jobless workers were able to find work each month. However, about three-fifths of those unemployed in any month were still unemployed in the following month, and slower rates of hiring and rising layoffs rapidly increased the number of those out of work 15 weeks or more, from 490,000 at the outset of the recession to 1.9 million in April 1958. In September 1958, the recall of workers who had been laid off in manufacturing industries brought the first significant reduction of long-term unemployment. Substantial reductions, after allowance for seasonal factors, continued in the final months of the year. Because the decline in unemployment was most severe in durable goods manufacturing and related industries, the impact upon the working population was quite uneven. Of the total increase of 2.4 million jobless persons from April 1957 to April 1958, by far the greater part were men, their numbers rising by 1.7 million, or 93 percent. Men from 20 to 34 years of age were especially affected, and the rate of unemployment for married men living with their families—that is, for those most likely to be strongly attached to the labor force—rose from 2.3 percent in July 1957 to.a peak of 6.5 percent in March 1958. In the spring and summer, employment opportunities improved, and the rate of unemployment diminished for heads of families to 4.8 percent by the end of the year. Unemployment among women also rose substantially, but not to the same extent as among men. Durable goods manufacturing industries accounted for about one-third of the total rise of the jobless, and rates of unemployment among durable goods workers reached 12 percent in April 1958; they were especially high in industries manufacturing primary metals and transportation equipment, rising to 13 percent and 14 percent, respectively. Large increases also occurred in the railroad industry, in mining, and in construction. Service industries, government, and public utilities were least affected. The uneven effect of the recession on the different areas of the country is shown by the statistics of insured unemployment (Table C-3). By April 1958, rates of insured unemployment were 7 percent or more in New England, many of the Middle Atlantic and North Central States, and California, and were more than double the rates in the previous year. In Michigan, Ohio, and West Virginia, the rates had at least tripled. In several Southern and Western States, however, insured unemployment remained below 5 percent of covered employment. Of the Nation's 145 principal labor market areas, the number having "substantial labor surpluses" increased from 21 in July 1957 to 86 by July 1958 and then declined to 80 in November, according to surveys by the Bureau of Employment Security. However, reduced unemployment and an improved employment outlook were evident in ?1 labor market areas during the second half of the year. More than four-fifths of nonagricultural wage and salary workers are covered by the system of unemployment insurance. Consequently, benefit payments increased rapidly during the recession and partially compensated for the wage loss to the employee and his family. While the provisions of the unemployment insurance system still fall short of the President's recommendations, unemployment benefit payments rose from an annual rate 85 489916 O—59—-7 TABLE C—3.—Insured unemployment under State and Federal employee programs, April 1957 and April 1958 Insured unemployment as percent of covered employment Insured unemployment' State Week ended April 13, 1957 Week ended April 12, 1958 Increase, 1957 to 1958 2 Thousands Week ended April 13, 19573 Weei: ended' April 12, 1958* Percent United States 1,486 3,333 1,877 3.7 8.1 Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Colorado 23 6 19 125 6 48 13 30 325 14 24 7 11 200 8 4.4 3.1 7.1 3.5 2.1 8.3 6.4 1.1.2 8.6 4.3 21 3 5 13 27 63 7 9 35 52 42 4 4 22 25 2.8 2.4 1.2 1.9 8.1 5.5 1.9 4.5 6.7 5 68 37 10 11 7 178 93 17 20 2 110 56 4.8 2.5 3.3 2.5 3.0 6.1 6.4 8.2 3.8 5.2 37 16 12 14 57 67 30 30 48 124 7.8 2.9 6.0 2.0 3.7 14.0 5.2 14.3 6.5 7.9 87 35 17 31 9 297 57 24 65 13 210 22 6 33 4 4.5 5.4 7.3 3.3 15.2 8.6 9.2 6.5 10.5 7 3 7 75 4 16 153 7 2 4 9 78 3.5 3.8 4.9 4.9 2.9 4.2 9.0 11.0 9.7 4.7 215 22 2 158 15 3.8 5.6 6.3 2.5 3.6 7.8 7.9 8.3 8.4 6.9 11 180 8 5.9 5.1 7.6 3.9 3.7 8.5 10.6 10.6 5.7 4.0 Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas _ _ Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts _ Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana _ Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico — New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas.. Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming _ ___ _ _ _ _ 184 46 4 65 14 223 28 21 167 19 15 3 32 347 27 24 3 39 34 5 3 12 62 80 11 6 32 6.1 2.0 2.7 4.0 1.8 9.2 4.4 5.6 8.1 4.4 28 13 24 2 52 52 53 4 4.5 3.7 2.9 3.3 8.1 13.6 6.2 6.8 1 Represents the number of unemployed workers covered by unemployment insurance programs who havo completed at least 1 week of unemployment. Excludes territories. 2 Based on unrounded data. s4 Based on average covered employment for 12 months ended June 1956. Based on average covered employment for 12 months ended June 1957. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Labor. 86 (seasonally adjusted) of $1.7 billion in July 1957 to $4.3 billion in April 1958, thus directly offsetting nearly one-third of the decline in total wage and salary payments, and providing benefits for the laid-off employee averaging $30 to $37 per week in the principal industrial states. Private supplementary unemployment benefit plans, which raised the level of benefits for the unemployed in certain industries, also helped to maintain incomes. As in earlier recessions, the number of beneficiaries exhausting their regular entitlement to benefits began to rise rapidly a few months after the onset of recession. Starting at 82,000 per month in September 1957, these exhaustions increased to a peak of 285,000 in July 1958. Legislation recommended by the President and enacted by the Congress provided, by means of agreements with the States, for the payment of benefits for additional periods to persons still unemployed who had exhausted their regular benefits. States participating in the program, or otherwise extending the duration of benefits, accounted for 70 percent of covered employment. Unemployed persons claiming benefits under this temporary program reached a maximum of 658,000 in August 1958, and then declined to less than 400,000 by the end of the year. Extended unemployment benefit payments amounted to approximately $390 million during 1958. The months of recession also affected other social security and public assistance programs, even though these are less closely related to employment trends than unemployment insurance. Total recipients of aid to dependent children increased more sharply than in previous years. Cases of "General Assistance"—relief provided from State and local funds where applicants are not eligible for federally assisted programs—also increased more in late 1957 and early 1958 than would be expected for seasonal reasons. HOURS WORKED AND EARNINGS The average workweek of production workers in manufacturing industries declined moderately during the first half of 1957, and sharply from September 1957 through February 1958. It then turned upward and advanced through the rest of the year. Gross average hourly earnings, which had leveled out at $2.11 in the final months of 1957, remained practically unchanged through April 1958, but then rose at a quickening pace during the second half of the year, reaching $2.19 in December. Hourly earnings, excluding premium pay for overtime, continued to rise throughout the year. Average weekly earnings, reflecting both changing hours and changing rates, declined from September 1957 to February 1958, but by June they had recovered all of their lost ground, and at $88.04 in December were $5.30 above earnings a year earlier. In terms of real purchasing power, weekly earnings continued to decline through April 1958, but recovered sharply by the end of the year, as the workweek was lengthened and as consumer prices stabilized. The manufacturing workweek and the amount of overtime worked began to recede early in 1956 from the high levels of 1955, and declined 87 gradually until September 1957, when the contraction became sharper. The low point was reached in February 1958 when average hours of work were lower (seasonally adjusted) than at any time since World War II. An upturn occurred in March, before the beginning of the recovery of employment. This development is typical of periods of recovery. When demand improves, production is first increased by lengthening the workweek, and later by adding employees. Reduced overtime tends somewhat to counteract, in recession periods, the continued rise of basic wage rates. In February 1958, when overtime had been minimized and the workweek was shortest, gross average hourly earnings in manufacturing were 2.4 percent above the level of February 1957, while average straight-time earnings were 3.5 percent higher. The continued rise in basic wage rates in 1958 is reflected in the index of hourly earnings excluding premium pay for overtime and adjusted for interindustry shifts of employment (Table C-4). Reduced hours of work and less overtime, and the continued rise of consumer prices, resulted in a persistent decline of real weekly earnings in 1957 and through April 1958, despite the rise of basic wage rates. However, this tendency was reversed by the increase in hours of work and by the tendency of prices to stabilize after the middle of 1958. By the end of the year, real weekly wages had recovered nearly all of the ground lost since the record rates of late 1956. Pay rates of armed forces personnel, and of salaried civilian employees of the Federal Government, which had been unchanged since early in 1955, were increased by about 10 percent, on the average, during 1958. The increases were made retroactive to January 1958 for civilian employees, TABLE C-4.—Index of average hourly earnings, adjusted for overtime and interindustry employment shifts, selected periods, 1948-58 * [1947-49=100] Month January February March 1948 1949 1953 1954 1957 1958 97.4 98.2 98.1 105.4 105.3 105.5 128.2 128.8 129.1 134.3 134.2 134.4 151. 3 151.7 152.4 158.4 158.7 159.2 April... . May June _ 98.4 99.4 100.5 105.9 105 9 106.2 129.4 129 8 130.4 134.5 135.0 135.0 152.6 153.1 154.0 159. 6 160.1 160.4 July August . September 102.1 103.2 104.5 106.5 106.1 106.4 131.4 131.4 133.3 135.1 134.8 136.3 154.5 155. 1 155.5 161.fi October November December . 104.4 104.8 104.8 105.8 106.2 106.5 132.6 133.3 133.5 136.3 136.4 136.3 156.4 157.2 157. 6 1 2 161.1 160.9 *16L4 » 162. 9 (3) For production workers in manufacturing. See note below. Preliminary. j-3-Not available. Average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing are affected by changes in pre-mium pay for overtime, by changes in the industrial composition of employment, and by other factors, as ll as by general changes in hourly wage rates. This index excludes the effects of premium pay for overerindustry employment shifts, and better reflects the movements of wage rates. Employindustries are based upon average 1954 production man-hours. DJBpiSStjjnent of Labor. 88 resulting in lump-sum cash payments of about $332 million in June and July. In all, about 3.4 million persons are receiving higher salaries under this legislation, and the total rise of income amounts to about $1.4 billion per year. Faim wage rates, according to the index compiled by the Department of Agriculture, increased by about 3 percent between July 1957 and July 1958. COLLECTIVE BARGAINING DEVELOPMENTS Basic wage rates, established in major collective bargaining situations, continued to rise in 1958. As in 1957, the over-all average wage increase was about 12 cents an hour, and increases were negotiated or put into effect for 6.8 million workers—about 85 percent of those covered by major collective bargaining contracts (Table C-5). Improvements of supplementary benefits continued to characterize three out of every four settlements. TABLE C—5.—Distribution of employees receiving wage increases under major labor agreements, 1956-58 * Size of increase (cents per hour) 1956 19582 1957 Employees receiving wage increases: Number (millions) 7.5 7.6 6.8 Percent Percentage distribution: Total Under 5 cents 5 and under 9 cents ^ „__, 9 and under 13 cents ,. _ „ _ „ . J3 and under 17 cents 17 cents and over Not specified or computed. .__ ^ „ , „ _ ..„ _ . _ _ 100 100 100 1 19 62 8 7 3 2 21 30 38 3 21 32 22 19 2 5 2 1 Includes cost of living, deferred, and newly negotiated wage increases received under collective bargaining situations affecting 1,000 or more employees and coming to the attention of the Department of Labor. Excludes construction, services, finance, and government. 2 Preliminary. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Labor. At the outset of 1958, about 3.3 million employees were covered by labor agreements providing for specified wage increases during the year, and in most cases for cost of living adjustments as well. In addition, at least one cost of living wage review was scheduled for about 1 million workers before expiration of their contracts in 1958. Employees in the steel, aluminum, meatpacking, and railroad industries received total increases ranging from 12 to 19 cents per hour, as a result of both deferred and escalator adjustments. Automobile workers received total increases of approximately 13 cents per hour in 1958 under both old and newly negotiated contracts. The continued advance of the consumer price index until August, and the record number—4 million—of employees with wages subject to cost of living escalator clauses, were major factors in the continued rise of wage rates. Wage increases were negotiated for 3.5 million employees in 1958. Negotiated increases tended, on the whole, to be slightly smaller than in 1957, with 7 to 9 cents per hour being the most common, compared with 9 to 11 cents in 1956 and 1957. About 7 percent of workers affected by negotiations received no wage increase. After delayed negotiations, three-year settlements in the automobile industry were concluded with major firms in September and October. Wage increases of 2.5 percent at 13-month intervals, extra increases for skilled employees, continued cost of living adjustments, and improvements of severance pay, pensions, and supplemental unemployment benefits were provided. An agreement reached in the coal mining industry in November increased wages by $2 per day, effective in 1959, and provided higher vacation pay and other benefits. II. Prices Prices of most manufactured industrial goods in both retail and wholesale markets have been fairly stable over the last 18 months. On the other hand, prices of other types of goods—farm products, industrial raw materials, foods, and services—have changed by relatively large amounts, some fluctuating over a wide range and others rising steadily. In wholesale markets, farm prices rose during most of the period of contraction, and then declined in the last nine months of 1958. Prices of industrial raw materials, on the other hand, moved in the opposite direction, falling as economic activity receded and rising during the recovery. Reflecting these offsetting price movements and the stability of prices of most manufactured goods, the wholesale price index has been roughly unchanged since mid-195 7. Prices of consumer services have continued to advance steadily; food prices rose sharply in early 1958, and despite some modest declines in recent months they have remained above 1957 levels. Together with higher prices for new and used automobiles, these developments accounted for almost all of the 2.6 percent increase in the consumer price index between July 1957 and November 1958. FARM AND FOOD PRICES Farm prices rose irregularly throughout 1956 and 1957 from the abnormally low levels of the winter of 1955-56, and the rise was accelerated in early 1958. During the first three months of 1958, wholesale prices of farm products rose 9 percent above prices in the same quarter of 1957, while the volume of marketings, particularly of price-supported crops, rose 5 percent. Marketings of livestock, however, were smaller than in the preceding year, and unfavorable weather during the winter and early spring reduced the supply of fresh fruits and vegetables. Although the maintenance of consumer income undoubtedly contributed to the rise in food prices during the recession, these changing supply conditions played the major role. As food supplies increased in the summer and fall of 1958, food prices declined; nevertheless, they remained above 1957 levels. During most of the period of rising farm prices, marketing margins continued to advance. The higher manufacturing, transportation, and distribution costs resulted not only from higher wage rates, freight charges, and the like, but also from the costs incurred in continually adding to the quality, variety, and "built-in" services incorporated in prepared and packaged foods. A large part of the rise in margins came in the second half of 1958, when the fall in farm prices was accompanied by a much smaller decline in food prices. In November, retail food prices were still about 2 percent above mid-1957 levels. CONSUMER SERVICES Ever since World War II, prices of consumer services have been rising steadily, through economic expansions and contractions. They have increased not only absolutely but also in relation to prices of commodities. Because of their relatively small rise during the war years, however, the increase since then has only recently brought service prices, excluding rent, back to their 1939 relationship to nonfood commodity prices. Rents are still well below their prewar relationship to other prices. While the prewar relationship between prices of services and other prices is not necessarily normal for the current period, some of the relatively sharp increase in prices of services during the past ten years may reflect an attempt to achieve in these industries the real income gains attained earlier in other segments of the economy. Consumer services cover a wide variety of economic activities, ranging from the highly industrialized and regulated public utilities to domestic service. They also include such items as real estate taxes and property insurance premiums, which have little immediate connection with the state of business activity. It is not surprising, then, that there have been significant differences among the various categories in the timing and magnitude of price changes. Prices of services provided by the regulated public utilities tend to adjust to inflationary pressures with some time lag. During the nine months following the conflict in Korea, for example, when other prices were rising sharply, prices .of most of these utilities increased moderately. In the succeeding two years, on the other hand, they rose fairly rapidly while commodity prices were falling. Similarly, the prices of this group of services advanced quite gradually from 1956 to mid-1957, but since then they have risen at a much more rapid rate. The recent increase is more a delayed reaction to cost increases that occurred earlier than a reflection of inflationary forces currently at work. Since the end of World War II, prices of some of these services—gas, electricity, and telephone—have risen substantially less than prices of other services. A major reason for the smaller increase is that these services are very highly industrialized and have achieved substantial efficiencies of operation through large investment programs, rapid expansion of operations, and the introduction of new technology. Certain other utilities, particularly local public transit, although relatively large users of capital equipment, have faced problems peculiar to their industry, which have tended to raise their costs and prices even more than for services in general. For another large group of services included in the consumer price index, prices are influenced by governmental and administrative factors not 92 closely related to the current state of the economy. The most important items in this group are real estate taxes, auto registration fees, postage rates, mortgage interest, and automobile and property insurance premiums. Some of these items have been included in the consumer price index only since December 1952. Since then, prices for this group have risen faster than service prices generally. While property taxes, insurance rates, and other items of a similar nature tend, in the long run, to be influenced by general economic conditions, the specific timing of changes is usually determined by noneconomic considerations. For consumer services other than the regulated utilities and the miscellaneous group discussed above, a common characteristic is that a large part of their total cost is payment for labor services. They normally cannot achieve the efficiencies made possible by heavy capital investment and new technology to the same extent as the commodity producing and public utility industries. For this group of "other" services, prices have risen steadily since the end of the war, and substantially more than the prices of services provided by the regulated utilities. In many instances, an advance in prices for this group when other prices are stable reflects an adjustment of wages and salaries to increases in living costs which occurred at some earlier period. Also, wage and salary gains often lead to cost and price increases in many of the service industries, in contrast to the industrialized sectors where there is greater opportunity for wage and salary increases to be offset by improvements in productivity. Taken altogether, service prices, excluding rent, rose 3.9 percent between mid-1957 and mid-1958, and another 0.7 percent in the second half of 1958. Since March of last year, however, the rate of increase has been somewhat slower than during most years since the war. Rent has risen about 2.5 percent in the 18 months since the middle of 1957. While this is about the rate of increase which has persisted since 1953, it is well below the annual increases of 4 to 5 percent in earlier postwar years. INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS A number of important crude or slightly processed materials used by American industry, such as lead, zinc, copper, tin, and natural rubber, are supplied in whole or in part from abroad. In most instances, the United States purchases a significant part of the world supply, but other industrial nations are also heavy buyers. Hence, prices of these materials were determined during the recession not only by the course of economic activity in the United States but also by the leveling of industrial production and the reduction in inventory purchases by other industrialized nations. Prices of these materials have also been affected in recent years by the termination of largescale stockpiling, and by supplies from new sources which have been developed since the post-Korean defense mobilization began. The changes in industrial production and inventories in the United States were, nevertheless, major factors determining the movement of prices of crude and slightly 93 processed materials, not only prices of domestic materials but also those of foreign supplies on which the United States relies heavily. Prices of this group of commodities tend to be much more volatile than those of fabricated materials. After reaching a peak in December 1956, prices of crude materials, exclusive of farm products, declined irregularly to mid-1957, as industrial production leveled and purchases for inventory receded. In the succeeding nine months, the decline was more rapid, as industrial consumption of materials decreased sharply and inventories were reduced. Prices moved upward in the summer of 1958, shortly after industrial production began to recover. Since stocks of copper, lead, and zinc had risen during the recession, the increased consumption of these materials was at first achieved by drawing down inventories; subsequently, purchases from primary producers increased. Later in the year, the restoration of tariffs on copper and the imposition of import quotas on lead and zinc strengthened the tendency for the prices of these commodities to rise. Prices of steel scrap, rubber, and tin also advanced sharply as the recovery progressed. Prices of crude and slightly processed industrial materials as a whole began to rise in June, and by the end of the year they had almost reached the level recorded prior to the recession. SEMIFINISHED AND FINISHED PRODUCTS With some notable exceptions, prices of fabricated industrial products (intermediate materials and finished goods) changed little during 1958 (Table C-6). Prices tended to decline in the first half of the year, but subsequently they rose enough to erase these declines. Prices of steel and of many intermediate steel-using products advanced significantly in both 1957 and 1958. Steel prices were raised on the average by 4.2 percent in July 1957 and by 2.6 percent in August 1958. Both price increases were put into effect shortly after substantial upward adjustments of wage rates in the industry. On the other hand, prices of nonferrous metal products, along with those of basic copper, lead, and zinc, declined during the recession. Although prices of these products have increased in recent months, they are still below their pre-recession peaks. Prices of building materials were relatively stable during 1956 and 1957 and then declined slightly in early 1958. In the second half of the year, however, the rapid increase in residential building and in public construction was accompanied by a recovery in the prices of construction materials. Prices of semifinished nondurable commodities, which had risen only moderately during the overall price advance in 1956 and 1957, fell throughout 1958. For all intermediate materials, components, and supplies as a group, prices at the end of 1958 differed little from those prevailing at mid-195 7. A small rise occurred in the last half of 1957, a modest decline during early 1958, and an equally modest recovery in the latter part of the year. During the two years preceding the recession, prices of machinery and equipment rose 15 percent, the sharpest increase for any major group of 94 TABLE G—6.—Changes in wholesale price indexes since June 1955 Percentatje change Commodity group July 1957 to December 1957 December 1957 to June 1958 7.2 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.1 -.2 .2 3.2 5.7 —5.1 -4.1 June 1955 to July 1957 All commodities. Farm products Processed foods _ Other than farm products and processed foods (industrial) _ Crude materials *_ Intermediate materials, supplies, and components3 Materials for durable manufacturing. Materials for nondurable manufacturing... Components for manufacturing Materials and components for construction. 3.2 June 1958 to December 1958> 8.7 .3 -.6 1.5 11.3 -7.3 —1.2 4.8 9.0 .2 -1.0 1.0 12.1 3.3 15.7 7.3 .3 .0 .7 -.3 -.8 -1.2 .1 -.6 2.4 .0 .9 1.5 15.2 6.8 2.5 1.8 -.1 -.2 1.3 1.2 4.5 .4 8.0 .4 Finished goods: Producer finished goods Consumer durable goods _ Consumer nondurable goods (other than food). Special index: All manufactured products -1.4 .3 1.0 .4 1 Based on preliminary data for December 1958. 2 Excludes a number of partially processed materials, such as copper, lead, and zinc, which are discussed in the text along with crude materials. In this table, these materials are included in intermediate materials, supplies, and components. 3 Includes groups not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor. finished products. Even during the last half of 1957, when machinery orders and sales were falling rapidly, prices advanced another 2l/z percent. After November 1957, prices stabilized and remained so for most of 1958. Late in the year, however, there were a number of small increases on particular lines of equipment, notably agricultural and construction machinery. With the principal exception of automobiles, the average increase in prices of finished consumer goods, at wholesale and retail, was slight in the past 18 months. Prices of new automobiles were raised in 1957 and 1958 when new models were introduced. However, a comparison of published indexes at the end of 1958 with those in mid-1957, covering changes for two model years, tends to exaggerate the increase, since discounts were larger at the beginning of this period than at the end. The changes in prices of consumer goods, both as published and as adjusted to eliminate the essentially seasonal changes in prices of automobiles, are shown in Table C-7. The rise in prices of used cars was particularly marked in the past 18 months, continuing the advance begun in the period of very low prices in early 1956. Over the past three years, almost half of the 9 percent increase in the prices of consumer durable goods was due to the rise in prices of new cars, and another third to the rise in prices of used cars. 95 Prices of appliances, which had fallen for many years, continued to decline after mid-1957, but the decreases tended to be small. Furniture prices also fell slightly; apparel prices declined after a moderate seasonal increase in late 1957; and prices of gasoline, fuel oil, and textile housefurnishings moved lower. On the other hand, increases occurred in prices of tires, prescriptions and drugs, cigarettes, newspapers, soaps and detergents, and many other miscellaneous products. On balance, as can be seen from Table G-7, when automobile prices are excluded, the indexes of prices of consumer durable and nondurable commodities advanced very slightly. TABLE G-7.—Changes in consumer price indexes since 1957 Percentage change, July 1957 to Relative November 1958 importance in index, December Based on Based on 19571 published adjusted data 2 data Item Ml items Food Other commodities Durable goods _ New automobiles Used automobiles 8 Other durable goods .... Appliances Furniture and bedding Nondurable goods Services including rent - _ .. . 100.0 2.6 28.6 36.4 1.7 2.0 1.7 13.6 4.3 3.4 3.0 1.6 9.0 13.6 9.0 .7 9.3 3.1 1.7 4-1.9 2.5 4 -.9 22.8 .7 34.2 4.0 1 Detail will not add to total because a small number of items could not be allocated to any individual group. 2 Indexes for July 1957 for groups containing new automobiles were adjusted to eliminate, so far as possible the effect of changing discounts during the model year. 3 Includes groups not shown separately. 4 Change from June 1957 to September 1958. Sources: Department of Labor and Council of Economic Advisers. The index of prices of consumer goods rose 2.6 percent, mainly because of increases in the prices of three groups of items—foods, services, and automobiles. The over-all index of wholesale prices, in contrast, changed very little in the recession and during the recovery to date. This index includes prices of very few service items, but it does include prices of industrial raw materials. In general, the prices of these materials moved in the opposite direction from prices of farm products and processed foods, falling in the early part of 1958, when farm prices were increasing, and rising in the latter part of the year, when farm prices were declining. Price changes in these two major groups tended to offset each other, while prices of semifinished and finished industrial products moved within a very narrow range. The rise in the consumer price index relative to the wholesale price index therefore reflects not an increase in retail margins, but rather the substantially different composition of the two indexes. COMPARISON OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN PRICE DEVELOPMENTS The United States was not the only country to experience an increase in the general level of prices during the past several years (Table C-8). In fact, the average change in United States prices between 1953 and 1957 was somewhat less than the change in many Western European countries, though nearly as much as in Germany and Italy. In the United States, wholesale prices of nondurable goods and of farm products behaved in substantially different fashion from those of durable industrial products. Despite their rise in 1956 and 1957, farm prices in the United States were lower at the end of the 1953-57 period than at the beginning, while in most WestTABLE C-8.—Price changes in the United States and selected other industrial nations, 1953 to 1957 Percentage change, 1953 to 1957 United States United Kingdom France Germany. Federal Republic 9 16 11 9 8 21 6 15 14 14 11 13 7 11 8 8 14 13 17 14 7 5 6 All items 5 16 »6 6 10 i2 Food 2 5 33 9 11 13 -4 9 21 2 13 15 -6 2 Price series Norway Italy Gross national product deflators: 1 Total Consumption Gross domesticfixedInvestment- . Producers' ment durable equip.. (8) Consumer price index: Selected wholesale price indexes: Textile products Building materials Machinery _ Index of prices received by farmers 2 4 7 () 15 (') 3 6 16 2 () -1 3 «6 (2) 11 4 15 i Implicit deflators for gross national product and specified components. For Germany (1956-57) and France (1953), deflators for producers' durable equipment were not available; estimates, based on other data, were used. * Not available. 3 Based on data for Paris only. < Based on wholesale price index of farm products. Sources: Based on data from various agencies of the U. S. Government and international organizations. ern European countries they had increased substantially. Prices of many nondurable goods in the United States also were more stable than those abroad, and prices of most consumer goods rose less than in Western Europe. The increase in prices of durable goods for industrial use, on the other hand, seems to have been greater in this country, both relative to other prices here and to prices of similar goods produced abroad. Prices of machinery and equipment rose at a particularly rapid rate; scattered evidence from a comparison of prices of processed durable materials indicates that the rise in prices in this country was greater than the increase abroad. The over-all price behavior in the United States, compared with other industrial nations, thus conceals significantly divergent trends among different commodity groups. 97 III. Agriculture For American agriculture, 1958 was a year of exceptionally favorable weather and marked prosperity. Outstanding developments were record yields and output of many crops, increased livestock prices, and a sharp rise in farm income. The demand for food remained strong throughout the year as personal incomes fell only moderately and briefly. The food component of the consumer price index averaged 4 percent higher than in 1957 as farm prices and the cost of marketing services rose about equally. Also, exports of farm products remained high, although they were smaller in the fiscal year 1958 than in 1957. Still, domestic and foreign demands were again not large enough to absorb the output of many crops. Agriculture's remarkable productivity, aided by favorable weather, resulted in record crop output even though the acreage planted was the smallest in many years. As a result, the two-year decline in price support activity ended, and Federal expenditures for the stabilization of farm prices and incomes are expected to be a record $5.4 billion in the fiscal year 1959. Despite continued intensive efforts to dispose of surplus commodities, the value of farm commodities under loan and in inventories of the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) by mid-1959 may exceed the 1956 peak. Price support commitments now made on 1959 crops suggest high expenditures again in the fiscal year 1960, if production in 1959 is near the average of recent years. LEVEL AND SOURCES OF FARM INCOME Realized net income of farm operators in 1958 was $13.0 billion, 20 percent more than in 1957 and the highest since 1953 (Table D-64). Delayed marketings of 1957 crops, chiefly feed grains and cotton, contributed more than $400 million to the increase in 1958. Total net income including inventory change was $13.2 billion, 14 percent higher than in 1957. Production expenses increased 5 percent, as feeder livestock prices, wage rates, prices of farm machinery and motor vehicles, and taxes rose. Farm people earned more than $6 billion from nonfarm sources so that their average per capita income from all sources exceeded $1,000 for the first time. The rise in farm output and income in 1958 contributed to enlarged expenditures on farm machinery, and thus to a greater productive capacity. Also, the living standards of farm families continued to improve as a result of gains in income. In addition, the increased farm expenditures helped to moderate the business decline and to speed recovery. However, many farm people did not share in the gains in 1958, and they still have very low incomes. Wide differences in productive assets per farm and in alternative employment opportunities continue to lead to large income disparities among farmers and to considerable diversity in the problems faced by farm people. Farms with annual gross sales of more than $2,500 represent only about 45 percent of all farms but produce nine-tenths of all farm products sold. Operators of these farms earn most of their income from farming; they are the chief beneficiaries of public expenditures for agricultural credit, conservation, and price support programs; with the public, they share in the important benefits of agricultural research. Per family average income from all sources for the 2.2 million farms in this group has been comparatively high (Table C-9). Large differences exist within the group, however; in 1954, 28 percent of all farms in this group made 64 percent of the group's sales of farm products. TABLE C-9.—Number of farms and average income of farm families, 1947 and 1952-56 Farms with sales of more than $2,500 per year Farms with sales of less than $2,500 per year Year Number (thousands) Average income ' Total Farm Off-farm Number (thousands) Average income Total Farm l Off-farm 1947 2,140 $5, 716 $4,969 $747 3,733 $2,359 $1, 114 $1,245 1952 1953 1954 2,138 2,158 2,180 6,189 5,655 5,528 5,104 4,530 4,363 ,085 ,125 ,165 3,283 3,150 3,021 2,816 2,706 2,691 1,086 937 881 1,730 1,769 1,810 1955 1956 2,196 2,213 5,417 5,415 4,123 4,033 ,294 ,382 2,889 2,751 2,806 2,925 806 789 2,000 2,136 i Farm-operator family. Source: Department of Agriculture. Families on the 2.8 million low-production farms with annual sales below $2,500 earn little income from farming, but their off-farm income is comparatively large (Table C-9). Again, there is a wide range within the group. On many of these farms, the operator has little supplementary employment, and farm sales are his major source of income. However, the number of these farmers who are finding off-farm jobs is growing. About 1.5 million part-time and residential farmers make up the remainder of the low-production group. Gross sales of these units are very low since farms are small, and many of the farm operators have off-farm jobs. Only 2 percent of all sales of farm products are made by part-time and residential farms, which comprise nearly one-third of all farms. Clearly, the welfare of the families on low-production farms is more closely linked with the expanding nonfarm sector of our economy than with agriculture as such. 99 FINANCIAL POSITION The financial position of agriculture, which was already strong, continued to improve in 1958. Farm debt increased somewhat, but farm assets rose by a larger amount, as the stock of machinery, the number an<i value of livestock on farms, and land prices increased. Equities in farm properties reached new peaks, with the gain in equities alone nearly equal to the total farm real estate debt. PRODUCTION AND PRICES Most of the gains in farm income in 1958 are attributable to the coincidence of record output of crops with insufficiently flexible, supported prices; sharply higher prices for certain crops whose output was reduced; and comparatively high prices for the moderately reduced marketings of livestock. In addition, the maintenance of personal income and consumer spending during the business contraction contributed significantly to higher farm incomes. Crops Total crop production in 1958 exceeded the record output of 1956 and 1957 by 11 percent, while harvested acreage was little changed from those years and was 5 percent below the 1951-55 average. New record yields per acre were reported for wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum grain, soybeans, rice, and other crops which together made up 96 percent of all crop acreage in 1958. These increases were the joint result of widespread favorable weather and improved technology, the latter both a permanent and major source of increased farm output. Production of food grains was 48 percent higher in 1958 than in 1957. An increase of more than 400 million bushels in stocks of wheat is indicated by present estimates of domestic and foreign sales in the year ending June 30, 1959. Despite record output and large carryovers, the index of prices received by farmers for food grains declined only moderately in 1958, as price supports operating through nonrecourse loans set effective limits on the price declines resulting from the large crops. The statutory price support for wheat of the 1958 crop was 9 percent below, and for rice 5 percent below, that of 1957; prices for both commodities reflected these reductions, with wheat prices slightly below, and rice prices slightly above, the support level. Price supports had similar sustaining effects on the prices of feed grains and oil crops in 1958, despite sharply increased output. As a result, the increase in income from these major price-supported crops was very large; food and feed grains, and oil crops accounted for one-third of the increase in cash receipts from farm marketings in 1958. Reductions in the size of crops were rare in 1958; for two major commodities, however, reduced output contributed to increases in cash receipts 100 and in net farm income. Smaller marketings of early citrus fruits following frost damage sent their prices up sharply; the seasonally adjusted index of prices received by farmers for all fruit rose 19 percent in the month preceding April 15. For the year, citrus fruit prices were 28 percent higher than in 1957, while production decreased 15 percent. As a result, the value of production of the reduced 1957-58 crop was $426 million, $47 million more than the value of the larger 1956-57 crop. Noncitrus fruit production was slightly reduced, and prices were moderately above those in 1957. A shortage of fresh vegetables early in the season caused their prices to rise sharply; prices fell as supplies increased at midyear. Eight percent of the increased cash receipts from farm marketings in 1958 was attributable to fruits and vegetables. Livestock Per capita meat consumption in 1958 was less than in 1957, as red meat production declined 4 percent, largely early in the year. By midyear, monthly pork output began to exceed the 1957 volume. Beef output, however, continued well below 1957, as breeding herds were restocked following large reductions in 1956 and 1957; cattle on farms increased by more than 2 million head in 1958. Lamb and mutton production was also slightly below 1957, but poultry meat production mcreased 11 percent, partly offsetting the reduction in red meat supplies (Table C-10). TABLE C-10.—Meat and poultry: Prices, receipts, production, and consumption, 1952-58 Year Prices received for meat animals (1910-14= 100)i Receipts from sale of meat animals (billions of dollars) Consumption per capita Production Red meats Total Poultry meat Total Red meats Poultry meat Pounds Billions of pounds 1952 1953 1954 353 296 292 10.1 8.7 8.9 27.2 29.0 29.8 23.0 24.7 25.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 173 182 183 146 155 155 27 27 28 1955 1956 1957 s 1958 249 238 279 334 8.2 8.3 9.4 10.8 31.3 33.2 32.4 31.8 26.9 28.1 26.9 25.8 4.4 5.2 5.5 6.0 189 197 191 186 163 167 159 152 26 SO 12 {4 i Index of prices received by farmers for meat animals. * Preliminary. Source: Department of Agriculture. The reduction in total and per capita meat supplies was reflected in increased prices in 1957 and even larger increases in 1958, when the index of prices received for meat animals rose 20 percent. Because of this sharp price response to moderately reduced marketings, sales of meat animals accounted for nearly half of the 1958 increase in cash receipts from farm marketings. 101 489916 O—59- Even though there was some increase in 1958 in the volume of marketings of poultry and eggs, prices increased slightly. Dairy production and marketings were almost the same as in 1957, but prices fell moderately. EXPORTS Agricultural exports decreased by 15 percent, to $4 billion in the year ended June 30, 1958; nevertheless, they were exceeded in only two other years on record. Grains, cotton, and animal products accounted for most of the decrease. Thirty percent of all exports of farm products were shipped under special programs, compared with 40 percent in the fiscal year 1957, mostly under provisions of Public Law 480. Cash exports remained at $2.8 billion, partly because export subsidies continued to be paid on several commodities in order to bridge the gap between domestic and world prices. Sales for foreign currencies and grants for relief accounted for nine-tenths of the exports under special programs. Barter transactions declined, under revised regulations, to only one-fourth the volume of the preceding fiscal year. The Department of Agriculture expects a small decline in agricultural exports during the fiscal year 1959, chiefly because of increased production in importing countries. Cotton exports may not exceed 4 million bales, a sharp drop from fiscal 1958, while wheat exports are expected to increase slightly. Exports of farm products in the period from July to December 1958 were 4 percent below those in the same period in 1957. PRICE SUPPORT OPERATIONS Farm income has become increasingly dependent on price supports, as rising productivity and increased resources have combined to keep the output of major farm commodities well in excess of total demand at established prices. Somewhat less favorable crop weather, the soil bank, and large exports based primarily on special financing or grants for relief, permitted reductions in the carryover of wheat and cotton in 1956 and 1957. Feed grain carryover, however, has increased in each of the last eight years. Oilbearing crops have become heavily dependent on surplus disposal programs. High levels of price support activity in grains, cotton, and oilseeds from the 1958 crop indicate a record total of CCC holdings by mid-1959. Since the fiscal year 1953, budget expenditures for the stabilization of farm prices and incomes have ranged from $1.7 billion to the record $5.4 billion estimated for the present fiscal year (Table C-ll). Most of these expenditures have been in support of the prices of wheat, corn, and cotton, commodities which have continued to present grave problems of overproduction and excess carryover. 102 TABLE C—11.—Net budget expenditures for agricultural programs, fiscal years 1953-60 [Millions of dollars] Agriculture and agricultural resources Stabilization of farm prices and income Fiscal year Total Commodity Credit Corporation 1 Total 1963 1954 _- . 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 > _- I9602 2,936 2,557 2,125 1,689 1,962 1,392 4,389 4,868 4,526 4,389 6,775 3,486 3,900 3,430 3,151 5,386 3, 305 3,607 2,793 2,294 4,420 5,996 4,490 4,218 1 Excludes the CCC portion of acreage reserve program expenditures as follows: $4 million in 1956, $344 million in 1957, $81 million in 1958, and $99 millon in 1959. > Estimate. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. COMMODITY MARKETS Per capita consumption of wheat as food in the United States has declined for many years as personal incomes have risen and diets changed. From 1910 to 1957, the total amount of wheat used as food actually fell slightly, although population almost doubled. Exports in the period since the war have depended heavily on grants for relief and on sales for foreign currencies. For the crop years 1953 through 1957, 63 percent of all wheat exported was shipped under special Government programs, chiefly Public Law 480 and the Marshall Plan. In that period, domestic uses plus cash exports (excluding those under special programs) averaged 737 million bushels per year, 73 percent of average annual production (Table C-12). At 1956-58 average yields, enough wheat to supply these markets can be produced on about 60 percent of the present national acreage allotment. If TABLE C-12.—Wheat: Production, utilization, and carryover, 2952-58 [Millions of bushels] Utilization Crop year l Production Domestic Regular exports Special exports Change in carryover Carryover, end of year Total Under price support program 1952 1953 1954 1,306 1,173 984 661 634 611 288 116 116 30 101 158 350 328 102 606 934 1,036 493 850 990 1955 935 1,004 951 1,462 601 587 588 608 105 174 152 140 241 375 249 290 -3 -124 -28 434 1,033 909 881 1,315 980 837 853 1,250 1956 1957 1958 * 1 2 Beginning July 1. Preliminary. Source: Department of Agriculture. 103 such yields occur, production from a larger acreage will either add to the already large carryover or require shipment through surplus disposal programs, unless markets are expanded. A substantial addition to stocks appears likely from the 1959 crop, according to present indications as reported by the Department of Agriculture. Utilization of feed grains is tied closely to the production of livestock and livestock products which, unlike wheat, have been increasingly in demand as per capita incomes have risen. As a result, grains fed to livestock have increased, although irregularly; exports also have risen, partly under special financing. Yet production has exceeded utilization each year since 1952 (Table C-13). Price support holdings of feed grains, already nearly $3 billion on June 30, 1958, may be expected to rise as a result of the large 1958 crop. TABLE C-13.—Feed grains: Production, utilization, and carryover, 1952-58 [Millions of tons] Crop year 1 1952 1953 1954 Production Utilization ._ 1955 1956 1957 2 1958 -. Change in carryover Carryover, end of year Under price support program Total 120 117 124 114 115 117 7 5 7 27 32 39 17 23 30 131 130 143 158 128 126 134 140 4 6 10 19 43 49 59 78 35 41 50 68 1 Beginning July 1 for oats and barley, and October 1 for corn and sorghum grain. 2 Preliminary. Source: Department of Agriculture. Cotton has faced strong competition from foreign cotton in the world market, as well as from artificial cellulose and synthetic fibers in the domestic market. Domestic per capita consumption has fallen in the past few years, and mill consumption has been reduced despite a growing population. Exports have been unstable, rising sharply after the war and again in 1956 and 1957, largely because of foreign shortages and special financing. Stocks in the past six years have fluctuated widely, but at present they are only moderately excessive. Total utilization in the 1958 crop year (August 1958 to July 1959) is estimated at 12 million bales, only slightly more than 1958 production, which was reduced sharply because more than one-fourth of the cotton acreage allotment was placed in the soil bank. It is possible that, under present programs, production in 1959 and 1960 may again exceed utilization and that stocks may increase. Tobacco also poses a serious problem in view of drastically reduced acreage, rising yields, declining cash exports, and large carryover. Under the present program, support prices are rising, thus increasing the tendency toward higher yields per acre and jeopardizing foreign markets. 104 Prices of oilseeds, including soybeans, cottonseed, flaxseed, and peanuts, also depend heavily on Government support; excessive Government-held stocks of soybeans and cottonseed have been prevented so far only by heavy exports under Public Law 480. While domestic consumption of these major crops either has declined or has increased slowly, and exports have depended heavily on Government programs, production per acre has increased sharply because of improved crop varieties, expanded use of fertilizer, increased irrigation, and better cultivation. In 1957, crop production per acre was 12 percent above output in 1947-49; in 1958, it was 26 percent higher. Virtually all crops have shared in these gains. Per acre yields of wheat, corn, and rice in 1956-58 were, respectively, 37, 33, and 50 percent more than in 1947-49. Cotton yielded 47 percent more, tobacco 30 percent more, and soybeans 16 percent more per acre in 1956-58 than in the earlier period. The output of most crops would be raised significantly if farmers were to increase fertilizer applications in response to present favorable crop-fertilizer price ratios, or were to adopt available machinery even more rapidly. Also, improvements in livestock breeding and feeding have reduced the feed requirements per unit of output for some types of livestock production. 105 IV. Financial Developments Shifts in monetary and credit policy during 1958, and the changes in the underlying economic conditions that called for them, were quickly and strikingly reflected in financial markets. The principal developments affecting the demand for capital and credit, the supply of funds available for various users, and changes in interest rates and stock prices are described in the following sections. DEMANDS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS Corporations The financing requirements of corporations in 1958 were lower than in 1957 as capital outlays and inventory expenditures declined much more rapidly than the flow of internal funds from depreciation allowances and retained earnings. Loans to businesses from commercial banks declined $400 million, compared with a growth of $1.8 billion in 1957. Gross proceeds of corporate security offerings were $11.5 billion, about one-tenth less than the record set in 1957. In the second half of the year, a rapid improvement in retained earnings limited the need for an expansion of borrowing as economic activity recovered. It was not until the fourth quarter that business loan activity by commercial banks showed a significant increase, and this was partially offset by a decline in corporate security flotations. Despite the attractiveness given to equity financing by rising stock prices, only about one-tenth of corporate flotations last year took the form of common stock, compared with about one-fifth in recent years. Although bonds convertible into common stock increased as a proportion of total offerings, and rose somewhat in absolute dollar volume over 1957, this was more than accounted for by one sizable offering in the first quarter. Corporate liquidity improved over the year, though it remained close to the low point in the period since the end of World War II. There was a reversal of the decline that had taken place since 1955 in corporate holdings of United States Government securities and cash, and the proportion of these liquid assets to current liabilities rose somewhat. Consumers In 1958, for the first time in the years since the war, consumer credit outstanding remained practically unchanged (Table C-14). Automobile paper outstanding declined by more than $1 billion, as the volume of new automobile credit extended fell below repayments, which changed very 106 little. This decline was offset mainly by a continued growth in personal loan credit and in noninstalment credit. Residential mortgage debt expanded more than in 1957, mainly in the second half of the year. The increase reflected substantial commitments made by financial institutions in late 1957 and the first half of 1958, when easier credit conditions widened the differential between mortgage yields and corporate bond yields and made mortgages a more attractive investment. Further effects of these commitments on mortgage debt will be felt in 1959. The increase in nonfarm residential mortgage debt over the entire year was $10.4 billion, compared with $8.6 billion in 1957; for the second half of 1958, however, the increase has been estimated at $6.3 billion, compared with $4.2 billion in the second half of 1957. TABLE C-14.—Changes in short- and intermediate-term consumer credit outstanding, 1955-58 [Millions of dollars] Type of credit Total consumer credit outstanding (end of period) 1955 1956 1957 38, 670 42 097 44 774 6,378 3,427 2,677 5,390 2,869 2,268 -400 3,663 883 73 771 987 876 206 800 950 182 196 940 -1300 988 558 409 19581 44,800 Net change in consumer credit outstanding: All types of consumer credit Instalment credit . _ _ - .. Automobile paper Other consumer goods paper "Repair and modernization loans Personal loans , , . . . , , NnninstalTnent credit 0 300 0 600 400 1 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Data are not adjusted for seasonal variation. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted). Consumers maintained a remarkably good record in meeting debt payments, despite the recession. Delinquencies in meeting automobile payments were low, although there was a sharp increase in repossessions of automobiles. State and Local Governments In order to finance mounting construction expenditures, State and local governments further expanded their security flotations, to the record figure of $7.4 billion. In addition, the dollar volume of bonds authorized at elections was much larger in 1958 than in 1957; however, the authorizations fell short of the record level reached in 1956. A large part of the 1958 increase in proceeds from State and local offerings went for roads and bridges, as States obtained funds to match Federal aid for accelerating the highway programs. 107 Federal Government The Federal debt rose $8.0 billion during the past year, with $6.6 billion of the increase occurring during the second half. In addition, the Treasury refinanced a large volume of maturing securities, thus heightening the impact of the Federal Government on credit markets. Two very long-term bonds were issued, lengthening the maturity structure of the debt. In February, about $1.7 billion of 3J/2 percent bonds falling due in 1990 were issued as part of a large exchange offering. In June, $1.1 billion of 3}4 percent bonds due in 1985 were offered for cash. The latter issue came at the same time that a large refinancing offer, mainly into a new 2 $4 percent bond maturing in 1965, was made. The sharp decline that occurred shortly thereafter in the prices of Government securities led the Treasury Department to repurchase $625 million of the 2% percent bonds in the open market. In the second half of the year, the Treasury restricted its financing operations to relatively short-term securities. A notable development, initiated in December, was the issue of a series of 26-week Treasury bills to supplement the usual 13-week bills. With capital markets again favorable, the Treasury issued a long-term security for cash in January 1959. SUPPLY OF FUNDS Federal Reserve Policy The first public indication of a reversal of the Federal Reserve's policy of monetary restraint came in mid-November 1957, with the reduction of the discount rate from 3/2 percent to 3 percent. Although this action by itself did little to make money and credit more easily available, it helped to initiate a sharp decline in interest rates that continued into early 1958. Three further decreases lowered the discount rate to 1% percent by May 1958. To provide funds to commercial banks, the Federal Reserve authorities reduced reserve requirements. Successive decreases, announced in February, March, and April, lowered reserve requirements against demand deposits from 20, 18, and 12 percent in the three classes of member banks, to 18, 16 5/2, and 11 percent. This was equivalent to releasing about $1.5 billion in reserve funds that could serve as a basis for a multiple expansion of money and credit. In addition, the Federal Reserve authorities provided bank reserves through open market purchases of United States Government securities. This need arose in part from an outflow during the year of more than $2 billion of gold, which, if not offset, would have reduced bank reserves by an equivalent amount. On July 18, the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve System authorized open market purchases of Government securities other than Treasury bills, as a result of the sharp decline in Government security prices. For a short while, some long-term securities were purchased by the 108 Federal Reserve System, although most of the purchases under this authorization were confined to the new 1^4 percent one-year Treasury Certificates that were being marketed in July. Open market operations during the major part of the year continued to be restricted to 13-week Treasury bills. The effect of the various Federal Reserve actions was to provide the basis for a substantial expansion of bank deposits. From January through July, the money supply (demand deposits and currency) increased $5.4 billion, on a seasonally adjusted basis, more than offsetting a decline during the preceding six months. Time deposits at commercial banks increased $5.7 billion. The rise in time deposits on an annual basis was the highest in any year since the end of the war. Monetary policy shifted as business conditions improved and concern emerged over possible inflationary developments. In mid-August, the Federal Reserve Board approved an increase in the discount rate from 124 percent to 2 percent. A reversal also occurred in the tenor of Federal Reserve open market operations. Previously, such operations, by providing large amounts of reserve funds to member banks, had almost eliminated the need for member bank borrowing at Federal Reserve banks. In late August and early September, as the reserve position of member banks came under increasing pressure, borrowings from the Federal Reserve banks rose rapidly. In October, Federal Reserve banks again raised the discount rate, from 2 percent to 2|^ percent. Margin requirements against new stock purchases, which had been reduced from 70 percent to 50 percent in January, were raised again to 70 percent in August and to 90 percent in October. The money supply rose $700 million from July through December, a rate of increase that was considerably less than the rate in early 1958. Time deposits, likewise, grew at a much slower rate. Commercial Bank Credit As a result of Federal Reserve actions in the first half of the year, loans and investments of commercial banks (excluding interbank loans) expanded by $8.9 billion, in contrast to a decline of $200 million during the same period of 1957. For 1958 as a whole, the expansion of bank loans and investments was more than $14 billion (Table C-15), the largest expansion in any year since the war. In the absence of a strong private demand for credit, most of the expansion in bank assets took the form of enlarged holdings of United States Government securities. These rose by $7.9 billion (based on par value; see Table C-16) and accounted for almost all the increase in the publicly held Federal debt. However, this increase in commercial bank holdings, made possible by additional reserve funds, was concentrated in the first half of 1958, and was accomplished largely through a reduction in the holdings of other investors; Government securities outstanding rose very little during the first half of the year. 109 TABLE C-15.—Net changes in commercial bank holdings of loans and investments, 1955-58 [Billions of dollars] Loan or investment 1955 Loans (excluding interbank) and investments 2 Loans (excluding interbank) 2 Business Real estate Consumer Security Agricultural All other Investments U. S. Government securities. ... Other securities 1956 1957 1958* 14.4 4.6 4.2 4.9 11.6 7.6 3.5 3.9 6.4 2.4 2.3 .6 -.7 .9 5.5 1.7 1.3 -.8 -.3 .5 1.8 .6 l.l -.1 -.1 .3 -.4 2.4 —7.0 -3.5 1.3 10.3 -7.4 .4 -3.0 -.4 -.3 1.7 7.9 2.5 (3) .3 .9 .7 1 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. 2 Total loans are net of, and individual loans are gross of, valuation reserves. > Less than $50 million. NOTE.—See Table D-41 for data including interbank loans. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System (except as noted). After midyear, when the public debt rose rapidly, commercial banks added to their holdings of United States Government securities at a much slower rate, absorbing about one-fourth of the increase in the publicly held Federal debt. The additional Government securities were placed in nonbank hands, in some cases with commercial banks serving in effect as underwriters. Thus, large-scale monetization of the public debt—i. e., additions to bank holdings through reserve funds provided by monetary authorities— that might have provided the basis for a renewal of inflationary pressures was avoided. TABLE G-16.—Net changes in ownership of1 the publicly held Federal debt during 1958 [Billions of dollars] 1958 investor group First half Second half » Debt held by the public: Total Commercial banks 3 Federal Reserve Banks Mutual savings banks Insurance companies Other corporations State and local governments Individuals Miscellaneous investors 0.8 . .... ,-_,-_-,-.. . , - - .. - --... 5.8 1.2 -.2 -.3 -3.2 -.1 -1.1 —1.4 8.1 2.1 .9 -. 1 .5 4.0 .3 —.8 1.2 » Change based on par value. See Table D-49. Based on preliminary estimates for December 31,1958 by Council of Economic Advisers. 3 The change in ownership of Federal debt by commercial banks given in this table differs from Table C-15. This table is based on par values and includes holdings of banks in United States Territories and possessions, whereas Table C-15 is based on book values and includes only banks within the continental United States. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Treasury Department (except as noted). 2 110 The maturity structure of Government securities held by banks was lengthened as a result principally of intermediate-term securities offered in Treasury financing operations. Since such issues are not as liquid as shortterm Government securities, the liquidity of banks was not enhanced as substantially as the increase in bank holdings of Government securities might indicate. Moreover, after the middle of the year, market prices of securities of intermediate- and long-term maturity declined as interest rates rose, making banks more reluctant to sell them because of the capital losses that would be entailed. In view of the reduced demands for consumer and business loans, the major portion of the remaining increase in bank assets consisted of larger holdings of State and local securities and real estate loans. The increase in the former was a substantial fraction of the total increase in State and local securities. Bank loans to aid in financing real estate transactions, including mortgages and interim credit, also expanded significantly, particularly in the second half of the year, and the rise in bank holdings of real estate loans was about the same as the 1955 record increase. Nonbank Financial Institutions Individuals added large amounts on balance to their financial assets. The rise in savings capital at savings and loan associations exceeded by more than one-quarter the rise in 1957 (Table C-17). In mutual savings TABLE C-17.—Flow of funds for selected nonbank financial institutions, 1955-58 [Millions of dollars] First ten months Item 1955 1956 1957 1958 Life insurance companies: Net change in assets 4,948 4,615 4,435 4,744 3,688 3,757 3,463 4,464 1,473 1,396 1,222 1,886 Savings and loan associations: Net change in savings capital Mutual savings banks: Net change in deposits Sources: Institute of Life Insurance, Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation, National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. banks, which are concentrated in the northeast section of the country, the rate of growth in savings accounts increased by more than 50 percent. The flow of savings into life insurance companies, as measured by the net increase in life insurance assets, was slightly greater than in 1957. Savings and loan associations and mutual savings banks used the additional funds available to increase substantially their accumulation of mortgages, and life insurance companies increased their accumulation of State and local securities. Holdings of United States Government securities by life insurance companies seem likely to show little change for the year as a whole. This ii i would make it the first year since 1946 that life insurance companies did not reduce their holdings of such securities significantly. Although the flow of funds from individuals directly into common stocks may have declined somewhat, the flow of funds into mutual funds as measured by the accumulation of mutual fund shares was at a record level. As a result, mutual funds increased their accumulation of common stocks. In addition, many pension funds were reported to be enlarging their equity portfolios. Individuals, however, continue to hold the largest amount of shares and, according to the public transactions study of the New York Stock Exchange, they continue to account for most transactions on the Exchange. INTEREST RATES AND STOCK PRICES The decline in interest rates that began in the autumn of 1957 continued into 1958 as economic activity diminished and Federal Reserve authorities made credit more readily available. The drop in long-term interest rates was particularly sharp through early January 1958. By then, the average yield on long-term United States Government bonds had fallen about /a of 1 percent, and a further decrease occurred through April. Short-term rates declined almost continuously through late May. The rate on new 13-week Treasury bills, which had reached 3^4 percent in 1957, fell to about ^ of 1 percent. With economic recovery, interest rates rose even more abruptly than they had declined. By early autumn, interest rates on long-term Government securities not only surpassed the rates in 1957 but were the highest since, the early 1930's. Other long-term rates also increased, although not quite as much. Short-term interest rates rose swiftly, with new Treasury bills yielding almost 3 percent six months after yields significantly below 1 percent had prevailed; however, short-term rates did not attain the high rates of 1957. Thus, short- and long-term interest rates advanced from the low levels of early 1958 in a remarkably brief time, in contrast to the protracted period of low interest rates during the economic contraction of 1953-54. A combination of factors contributed to the sharpness of the rise in rates. These included the suddenness with which the upturn in business activity came about; the projected rise in the supply of Government securities, reflecting the Federal deficit; and widespread discussion of potential inflationary pressures. Another factor was the large-scale selling of United States Government securities by many of those who had bought earlier in the year on the assumption of declining interest rates and rising bond prices. Many Government bonds, notably the 1% percent bonds of 1965 issued in June, had been bought on a thin margin basis. When bond prices began to decline, many of these holders had little choice but to sell their securities. This helped bring about further price declines through the summer months, making for sharply higher interest rates. 112 Stock market prices increased persistently throughout most of 1958. By autumn, prices of common stocks exceeded their previous highs; and, according to one measure, prices of industrial stocks at the end of the year were, on the average, 22 times the earnings that had prevailed in the year ended September 1958. This high capitalization of current earnings had occurred only seldom in the past, and then under unusual circumstances. The dividend yield of a composite of stocks declined during 1958 from about 4% percent to 3J4 percent, considerably below yields on long-term bonds. After the middle of the year, low-price stocks became the most actively traded, and they increased in price substantially more than high-price stocks. The proportion of stock market transactions for shortterm and trading purposes was the largest since 1955, according to the public transactions study of the New York Stock Exchange. Stock market credit, as measured by net debit balances of New York Stock Exchange firms and bank loans to others than brokers and dealers, increased about $900 million from the end of 1957 to the end of 1958, and about $400 million when measured from the peak figure in 1957. Most of the rise occurred before August 1958, at which time margin requirements on new stock purchases were raised from 50 percent to 70 percent, and other moves were taken to restrain general credit expansion. V. Government Finances Federal, State, and local government expenditures increased during the calendar year 1958. State and local receipts also rose, but Federal Government receipts declined, reflecting the effect of economic recession on corporate and individual incomes. For the fiscal year 1958, the Federal budget showed a small deficit (the first in three years), and a much larger one is estimated for the current fiscal year. State and local debt rose by $4.7 billion during the year ended June 30, 1958; the Federal debt increased by $5.8 billion in the same period and by an additional $6.6 billion during the second half of the calendar year 1958. It is expected to increase by another $2 billion by June 30, 1959. FEDERAL FINANCES Expenditures Budget expenditures in the year ended June 30, 1958 amounted to $71.9 billion, $2.5 billion higher than in the preceding fiscal year. There were increases in nearly all categories, with the largest increases in the major national security and commerce and housing categories (Table C-18). TABLE C-18.—Federal budget expenditures, 1957-60 [Fiscal years, billions of dollars] Function Total budget expenditures Major national security International affairs and finance Commerce and housing Agriculture and agricultural resourcesNatural resources Labor and welfare Veterans services and benefits Interest General government Allowance for contingencies _ . 1957 , ,...-.. 1958 1959 1960 (estimated) (estimated) 69.4 71.9 80.9 77.0 43 3 2.0 15 4.5 1.3 30 4.8 7.3 1.8 44 1 2.2 2.1 4.4 1.5 34 5.0 7.7 1.4 46.1 3.7 3.5 6.8 1.7 4.4 5.2 7.6 1.7 .2 45 8 2.1 2.2 6.0 1.7 4.1 5.1 8.1 1.7 .1 NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. A further rise in budget expenditures, to $80.9 billion, is indicated for the current fiscal year (1959), as increases in nearly all major categories are expected. For each of the four categories—agriculture and agricultural resources, major national security, international affairs and finance, and commerce and housing—an increase of more than $1 billion is estimated* The largest single increase is expected for agriculture and agricultural 114 resources, primarily because record crops have caused increased payments to farmers under open-end commitments for price support. To a smaller extent, the increase results from additional soil bank payments for corn and cotton acreage. Estimates for expenditures on agriculture and agricultural resources in the fiscal year 1959 have been revised upward repeatedly, from $4.6 billion in the January 1958 budget to $6.4 billion in the midyear review and to $6.8 billion as of January 1959. Agricultural expenditures therefore become the third largest category in the Federal budget, exceeded only by expenditures for national security and interest payments on the public debt. The increase estimated for national security expenditures in the current fiscal year is attributable primarily to higher spending on research and development, procurement of missiles, larger operating expenditures, and higher expenditures for military construction. Expenditures of the Atomic Energy Commission are expected to increase by over $300 million. An estimated increase of more than $1 billion for research and development (including testing and evaluation) will raise estimated expenditures by the Department of Defense in this category to a level 50 percent higher than in the fiscal year 1958. Increased expenditures for new weapons and more modern equipment, on the other hand, will be more than offset by a reduction in expenditures for conventional weapons and equipment, resulting in an estimated reduction of $600 million in total expenditures for procurement. The estimated increase in expenditures for international affairs and finance is due primarily to the recommended expenditure for the additional United States quota in the International Monetary Fund. The higher expenditures for commerce and housing in fiscal 1959 reflect primarily the purchases of mortgages for low- and medium-priced housing by the Federal National Mortgage Association, extension of the direct home loan program of the Veterans Administration, larger expenditures for the modernization of airway navigation facilities, and greater assistance to small business by the Small Business Administration. Despite the rise in postal rates, a significant increase is expected in the net deficit of the Post Office Department, owing to the pay increase for postal workers enacted in May 1958 and to higher payments to railroads on account of the increase in rates granted them by the ICG in the spring of 1958. The increase of almost $1 billion estimated for labor and welfare is chiefly the result of the program enacted in June 1958, which provides for temporary advances to States for the extension of unemployment compensation benefits, and of recent legislation increasing the Federal share of payments to States for public assistance grants. Revenues Federal budget receipts in the fiscal year 1958 were almost $2 billion less than in the preceding year, reflecting the impact of the recession. Receipts from taxes on individual incomes declined by about $900 million, and those from taxes on corporate incomes by $1.1 billion. Revenues from "5 excise taxes declined by about $400 million. However, other receipts, including customs and miscellaneous receipts, rose by more than $500 million. A further decline in revenues is expected in the fiscal year 1959. Receipts from the corporate income tax are expected to fall by $3 billion as a result of the decline in corporate profits during the calendar year 1958, which was particularly sharp in the first half of the year. On the other hand, receipts from the personal income tax, which is collected mainly on a current basis, are expected to increase, reflecting the economic recovery and the rise in personal incomes beginning in the spring of 1958. Small declines are estimated for excise and other receipts, except customs. The net effect of all these changes will be a decrease of approximately $1 billion from the fiscal year 1958 in Federal revenues. (For details on Federal budget receipts by source, see Table D-51.) Upon recommendation of the President, the Congress extended for one year the current rates of the corporate income tax and certain Federal excise taxes which were to be reduced last June. It also repealed the taxes on transportation of property (including coal, and oil by pipeline), effective August 1, 1958, at a revenue loss estimated at $350 million for the remainder of the fiscal year 1959 and somewhat over $500 million for a full year. In addition, it enacted a number of technical tax revisions, including changes aimed at aiding small business; the revisions from which small business is expected to benefit are estimated as involving a loss of $260 million in revenue in the fiscal year 1959. Consolidated Cash Statement The consolidated cash statement, which presents information on the total flow of money between the public and the Federal Government, shifted—like the conventional budget—from a surplus in the fiscal year 1957 to a deficit in fiscal 1958. However, both the change from the fiscal year 1957 to the fiscal year 1958, and the deficit in the fiscal year 1958, were smaller than those shown by the conventional budget. In every fiscal year from 1953 through 1958 (as well as in most prior years), the Federal budget on a consolidated cash basis has shown smaller deficits or larger surpluses than the conventional budget (Table C-19). Trust funds, whose receipts and disbursements are included in the consolidated cash statement but not in the conventional budget, have shown a surplus in recent years, including the fiscal year 1958. In addition, accrued interest on savings bonds has exceeded the cash interest paid on redeemed bonds and has contributed to a reduction in Federal cash payments relative to budget expenditures. Through the fiscal year 1957, the largest of the trust funds—the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund—showed a consistent and substantial excess of receipts over payments, although the amount of the excess has been declining in recent years. Most of the other trust funds also showed a consistent excess of receipts over payments during this 116 TABLE C-19.—Relation between the Federal budget surplus or deficit, receipts from and payments to the public, and change in the public debt, 1953—59 [Fiscal years, billions of dollars] Item Budget surplus or deficit (— ) Plus: Less: Net receipts, or expenditures (— ), from trust account transactions _ _ . _ _ _ . . Accrued interest and other noncash expenditures (net) __ _ _ 1953 1954 1955 —9.4 —3 1 —4 2 16 3.6 2.0 1.0 .5 .6 .6 1956 1959 1958 (estimated) 16 —2 8 — 12 9 2.2 1.4 .3 —1 3 .9 — 8 5 1 9 (i) .1 .1 (i) -6 9 —1 5 —13 2 Receipts from exercise of monetary authority . Expenditures (net) of government-sponsored enterprises .1 .1 -.1 -.4 .1 .3 Equals: Net receipts from, or payments (— ) to, the Sublic (consolidated cash surplus or eficit) 0) 1957 (i) -5.3 -2 -2.7 4 5 Plus: Receipts from seigniorage less changes in cash balance held outside Treasury .1 -.2 .3 .2 (i) — 1 4 Less: Increase or decrease (— ) in Treasurer's account balance -2.3 2.1 -.6 .3 -1.0 4.2 -4 3 Equals: Net cash borrowing from the public or repayment ( — ) 2 2.9 2.5 1.8 -4.4 —31 5 8 85 .7 .5 .5 .5 .4 .3 .5 .1 .1 .2 rj 1.5 3.2 Plus: Less: Accrued interest on savings bonds and Treasury bills Issuance of public debt securities representing budget expenditures or refunds of receipts - _ _ Net investment in Federal securities by government agencies Net sale of obligations of government enterprises in the market Equals: Net increase in public debt (i) 3.3 2.1 (i) (i) 7.0 5.2 .9 3.1 1.0 -1.6 21 2.3 1.2 .7 -.5 1.2 .4 1.0 -2.2 5.8 8.7 1 2 Less than $50 million. Sign changed. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. period. An occasional excess of payments over receipts in one trust fund, such as the Unemployment Trust Fund in the fiscal years 1954 and 1955, was more than offset by an excess of receipts over payments in other funds. A change began, however, in the fiscal year 1958, when payments from the OASI Trust Fund exceeded receipts for the first time. Substantial net payments were also shown by the Unemployment Trust Fund in that year. These net payments were more than offset in total by the net receipts of the Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund, the Federal Employees Retirement Fund, and the Highway Trust Fund. In the fiscal year 1959,, however, payments of the Highway Trust Fund, as well as the OASI Trust Fund and the Unemployment Trust Fund, are expected to be substantially in excess of current receipts; therefore, the current operations of the trust funds are expected to show, for the first time in recent years, a substantial net excess of expenditures over receipts, and the anticipated Federal deficit on a consolidated cash basis is expected to exceed the estimated deficit on a conventional basis (Table C-19). It is estimated that in the fiscal year 1960 the situation will be reversed again and that the Federal surplus on a consolidated cash basis will be 117 489916 O—59 9 larger than the budget surplus on the conventional basis. Current operations of the trust funds are then expected to show again a small net accumulation, partly because of higher contributions to the OASI Trust Fund, effective January 1, 1959, smaller net payments by the Unemployment Trust Fund, and increased revenues for the Highway Trust Fund from the recommended increase in the Federal gasoline tax. Public Debt The public debt increased by $5.8 billion, to $276.3 billion, during the fiscal year ended June 30, 1958. By the end of the calendar year 1958, it had increased to $282.9 billion, an increase of $8 billion for the year. A further increase of approximately $2 billion by June 30, 1959 is now estimated. The increase in the public debt during the fiscal year 1958 was substantially in excess of either the conventional budget deficit or the cash deficit for the same period, but the opposite result is expected for the fiscal year 1959 (Table C-19). The major reason for this difference is that the Treasury's cash balance was abnormally high on June 30, 1958. Changes in the public debt do not necessarily measure the impact of Government debt operations on the economy in terms of withdrawals of funds from, or additions of funds to, the public. Net receipts by trust accounts, which are invested in United States Government securities, provide the Treasury with funds that can be used to redeem securities held by the public or to reduce the amount of borrowing from the public if there is a budget deficit. On the other hand, net payments by trust accounts reduce the cash position of the Treasury, and may lead to an increase in the debt held by the public as Federal security holdings by these accounts are reduced. The relationships between the budget surplus or deficit, net cash receipts or payments, and changes in the public debt are shown in Table C-19 for the fiscal years 1953 to 1959, inclusive. FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL FINANCES Data on the net results of the financial transactions of the Federal Government on a cash basis (Table C-20) show that the relationship between Federal cash payments and receipts has fluctuated considerably in recent years. A deficit of $5.3 billion in the fiscal year 1953 was practically eliminated in the following year. A deficit of $2.7 billion in 1955 was followed by a substantial surplus in the fiscal year 1956 and a smaller surplus in the fiscal year 1957. In the fiscal year 1958, there was a deficit of $1.5 billion. By contrast, cash receipts and payments of State and local government units show much smaller swings during this period, with both cash receipts and payments increasing steadily. Since 1953, payments have consistently exceeded receipts, with the largest deficit occurring in 1958. Except for 1953, therefore, the net effect of State and local cash transactions has been to reduce the size of the cash surplus or to increase the size of the cash deficit of all government units combined. 118 TABLE C-20.—Consolidated cash statements of Federal and State and local governments, 1953—58 [Fiscal years, billions of dollars] Receipts or payments 1953 Total government: Cash receipts Cash payments Total cash surplus or deficit (—) _ . Federal Government: Cash receipts Cash payments _. _ __ _ Federal cash surplus or deficit ( — ) State and local governments: ! Cash receipts Cash payments _ State and local cash surplus or deficit (— ) 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 93 9 99 1 95 6 96 1 93 5 97 5 105 8 101 7 113 1 111 6 114 4 117 7 -5.2 -.5 -4.0 4.1 1.5 -3.3 71 5 76.8 71.6 71.9 67 8 70 5 77 1 72 6 82 1 80.0 81.9 83.4 —5 3 — 2 —2 7 4 5 2 1 -1.5 22.4 22.3 24.0 24.2 25.7 27.0 28.7 29.1 31.0 31.6 32.5 34.3 1 — 2 —1 3 4 6 — 1.8 i Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Federal grants-in-aid have been deducted from State and local government receipts and payments since they are included in Federal payments. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget (except as noted). All major classes of State and local government expenditures increased during the past year. Expenditures for education—more than one-third of the total—continued to be by far the largest single outlay, followed by ex* penditures for highways and public welfare. As in previous years, property taxes and taxes on sales and gross receipts accounted for about three-fifths of State and local revenues. Both these sources of receipts, and also revenue from personal income taxes, have increased from year to year. Receipts from taxes on corporate profits—not an important source of revenue for State and local governments—declined in 1958. RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES OF FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS: NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS Quarterly changes in Government receipts and expenditures, at seasonally adjusted annual rates, are shown in Table C-21 in terms of the national income accounts. The presentation of Government receipts and expenditures in these accounts shows the contribution of Government operations to the gross national product and the income of the economy more directly than the piesentation in either the conventional budget or the consolidated cash statement. A major difference between the national income concept and the consolidated Government cash statement is that the former excludes capital transactions, such as sales of Government property, mortgage purchases by the Federal National Mortgage Association, and Government purchases of other existing assets. Adjustments are also made for other reasons, such as differences in timing between the recording of certain transactions in the national income accounts and the actual outlay or receipt of cash by the Government. For fiscal 1958, the major part of the difference between receipts in the national income accounts and in the consolidated cash statement was due to the difference in timing between the accrual and payment of corporate profits taxes. (For a reconciliation between Federal Government receipts and payments on a cash basis and on a national income basis, see Table D-54.) As indicated in Table C-21, the surplus of Federal Government operations on income and product account in the third quarter of the calendar year 1957 was wiped out in the fourth quarter when receipts and expenditures were nearly in balance; and in each quarter of the calendar year 1958, TABLE G—21.—Government receipts and expenditures as shown in the national income accounts, 1957-58 [Calendar years, billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rates] IS 57 Receipt or expenditure Third quarter Ifi 58 Fourth quarter First quarter Second quarter Third Fourth quarter quarter l Federal Government: Receipts 83.3 80.6 76.1 76.1 80.2 83.4 Expenditures 79.9 80.8 82.8 86.0 88.7 90.6 49.7 17.1 49 1 18.6 49 7 19.5 50 7 21.5 52.2 22.1 53.8 21.7 4.3 8.8 4.4 8.8 4 4 9.1 4.8 9.1 5.4 9.0 6.0 9.1 3.4 -.2 -6.6 -9.9 -8.6 -7.2 42.8 Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Qrants-in-aid to State and local governments All other 2, ___ Excess of receipts or expenditures (— ) State and local governments: Receipts., _ _ ._ ._ Expenditures Purchases of goods and services _ _ All other 2 Excess of receipts or expenditures (— ). ._ 38.3 38.5 38.9 39.8 41.2 38.9 40.6 41.6 42.1 42.8 44.0 36.1 38.6 3.1 39.1 3.0 39.9 2.7 37.8 2.9 3.0 41.0 3.0 -.6 -2.1 -2.7 -2.2 —1.6 —1.2 1 2 Preliminary estimate by Council of Economic Advisers. See Table D-53, for items included. NOTE.—Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments are reflected in Federal expenditures and State and local receipts and expenditures. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). Federal Government operations showed a large deficit, the largest being recorded in the second quarter. Both a substantial decline in receipts and an increase in expenditures contributed to the shift from a surplus in the third quarter of 1957 to a deficit in the first quarter of 1958. Federal receipts reached a low point in the first and second quarters of 1958; by the fourth quarter, they had recovered all the loss since the third quarter of 1957. Expenditures, however, continued to rise in each quarter of 1958; and by the third quarter, they were more than 10 percent above expenditures a year earlier. All major types of Federal expenditures increased, with the largest rise occurring in transfer payments. 120 Purchases of goods and services by the Federal Government in the first quarter of 1958 were about the same as in the last two quarters of 1957, but in the following three quarters they increased at an accelerating rate. Payments for national defense, by far the largest component, account for some of the increase during this period. Greater outlays for the support of agricultural prices, as well as increased payments to Government employees, contributed to the increase in nondefense purchases of goods and services. The steady rise in transfer payments through the third quarter of 1958 reflects primarily higher unemployment insurance payments as well as increased benefit payments under the old-age, survivors, and disability system. Likewise, benefit payments from other social insurance funds, and compensation and pension payments to veterans, have been increasing. Grants-in-aid to State and local governments have been rising, particularly in the last three quarters of 1958. The two major items accounting for the rise are the increase in Federal public assistance grants to States and grants-in-aid under the highway program. State and local receipts and expenditures during this period show a steady upward trend. However, while the increases in expenditures in the fourth quarter of 1957 and the first quarter of 1958 were more rapid than the increases in receipts, the gap between receipts and expenditures narrowed in subsequent quarters. State and local purchases of goods and services rose steadily during this period; the most significant expenditures were for education and for the construction of highways and other facilities. 121 VI. United States Foreign Trade and Payments Changes during the past two years in the economic situation in the United States and abroad inevitably affected this country's foreign trade and payments. While imports were well maintained, exports declined sharply after mid-195 7; as a result, the United States surplus on transactions in goods and services in the first half of 1958 was much below the high level attained a year earlier and about the same as in 1956 (Table C-22). At the same time, the net outflow of capital remained considerably above the early 1956 rate. These changes resulted in substantial additions to foreign gold and liquid dollar assets. Thus a movement which had proceeded for several years before the Suez crisis was resumed, but at a higher rate. TABLE C—22.—United States balance of payments, selected periods, 1952—58 * [Millions of dollars] July 1952June 1956 1956, 1957, (annual first half first half average) Receipt or payment 1958 First half Third quarter Seasonally adjusted annual rates U nited States receipts Merchandise exports _ _ Services and military transactions Foreign long-term investments in United States United States payments Merchandise imports Services and military expenditures _ Remittances and pensions Government grants and related capital outflows (net)_. United States private and other Government capital outflows (net) Excess of receipts or payments: All transactions Goods and services ._ Capital, grants, remittances and pensions Errors and omissions (net receipts) _ __ _ Increase in foreign gold and liquid dollar assets through transactions with the United States .__ . 18, 955 22, 970 27, 716 22, 946 23, 324 13, 401 5,259 295 16, 246 6,160 564 20, 044 7,086 586 16, 154 6,764 28 16, 324 7,000 20,903 24, 408 27, 860 26, 334 26, 876 11,154 5,983 601 2,128 12, 530 7, 050 610 2,428 13, 198 7,336 686 2,978 12, 538 7,518 676 2,454 12,712 7,880 724 2,412 1,037 1,790 3,662 3,148 3,148 -1,948 1,523 -3, 471 -1,438 2,826 -4, 264 -144 6,596 -6, 74C -3, 388 2,862 -6, 250 -3. 552 2,732 -6, 284 303 214 1,148 386 376 1,645 1,224 -1,004 3,002 3,176 1 The selection of periods is dictated by the behavior of certain major items in the balance of payments, especially that of United States exports. Mid-1952 to mid-1956 provides a base period of more or less normal development of trade and payments after the repercussions of the Korean conflict were over and before the effects of the Suez crisis were felt; the first half of 1956 is given separately to show the levels prevailing at the end of that period. The first half of 1957 shows United States exports and other transactions at their peak, influenced by the general level of economic activity as well as by the Suez situation and other special forces. The first half and third quarter of 1958 give the more current situation, affected by the recession and other developments. 2 Transfers of military aid are excluded both from exports (under receipts) and from grants (under payments) . Source: Department of Commerce. 122 REASONS FOR DECLINE IN UNITED STATES EXPORTS From the first half of 1957 to the first half of 1958, the value of United States merchandise exports fell more—in relative as well as absolute terms— than those of all other countries combined (Table C-23; also Chart 11 TABLE C-23.—Exports of the United States and other .countries, 1956-58 Foreign countries l United States Period Total Western Other Europe, Canada, countries 2 and Japan Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956: First half. Second half. _ _ _ _ _ 1957: First half Second half 1958: First half. .. Third quarter __ __ 16.2 18.4 73.4 75.0 43.2 44.8 30.2 30.2 20.0 18.6 79.6 79.6 47.9 48.2 31.7 31.4 16.1 16.3 77.1 378.6 47.2 347.9 29.9 330.7 -1.5 -2.0 -5.7 -6.5 Percent Change, first half 1957 to first half 1958: Value Unit value -19.5 -.5 -3.1 -4.0 1 2 3 Excludes exports of U.S.S.R. and Soviet bloc countries. Includes Ireland, Iceland, Finland, Spain, and Yugoslavia. Preliminary. Sources: Department of Commerce, International Monetary Fund, and United Nations. in Chapter 2). The reduction in the value of exports of foreign countries was due chiefly to a fall in export prices of the primary producing countries. Exports of the industrially developed countries declined relatively little, and, unlike those of the United States, remained significantly higher in the first six months of 1958 than in the first half of 1956. Exports, adjusted for seasonal variations, of these other industrial countries rose moderately again in the third quarter of 1958; and exports of the United States were slightly higher in that quarter than earlier in the year. Examination of the export performance of the United States discloses that by far the greater part of the recent decline, as well as much of the sharp rise immediately preceding it, is attributable to developments in a few products. Six major commodities or commodity groups, which usually constitute only about 30 percent of total United States exports, accounted for most of the rise from the first half of 1956 to the first half of 1957 and for about three-fourths of the fall in the first half of 1958 (Table C-24). Special circumstances dominated the movements of petroleum, cotton, and wheat. Petroleum exports were temporarily swollen in the first half of 1957 by the interruption of traffic through the Suez Canal. Cotton exports, which had been abnormally low in the first half of 1956, pending 123 TABLE C-24.—Change in United States exports, 1956 to 1958 [Millions of dollars, annual rates] Change Exports, first half 1956 Commodity group ! Total exports, excluding "special category" Six main items in the decline ' Crude petroleum and selected fuels 2 _ Raw cotton including linters Wheat Coal and related fuels Iron and steel-mill products, nonferrous metals, scrap, and ferroalloys Automobiles and parts and accessories Other exports * Meat and dairy products, lard, and other edible animal products Oils, greases, and other inedible animal products Vegetable food prr ducts and beverages, excluding wheat. . . Rubber and manufactures Oilseeds and expressed oils. .. Wood and paper Lubricating oil and~ other petroleum products Metal manufactures ...----. . .. .. Machinery, all types Chemicals and related products Textile manufactures (semi- and3 finished manufactures) Selected finished manufactures All other products 4 First half First half 1956 to first 1957 to first half 1957 half 1958 16. 294 3,690 -3, 920 5,029 2,357 -2,992 214 484 669 630 582 794 241 224 -617 -422 -335 -328 1,526 1,506 562 -46 -1,030 -260 11, 265 1, 333 -928 383 313 1,235 262 256 444 308 462 3,612 1,244 632 673 1,441 29 21 -28 46 78 46 46 44 438 164 66 91 292 -140 -60 97 -26 -137 -44 -72 -20 -218 -60 -68 -41 -139 1 Exports grouped to show main products accounting for the decline from first half 1957 to first half 1958. See Table D-73 for additipnal detail by area. 2 Includes gas oil, fuel oil, and motor fuel other than aviation gasoline. 3 Includes photographic and projection goods, scientific and professional instruments, musical instruments, miscellaneous office supplies, small arms and ammunition, books, maps, and other printed matter. 4 Includes, in addition to miscellaneous items, such exports as tobacco and tobacco products, articles for charity, and total reexports of merchandise. Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers. a revision of the United States export price, rose subsequently when foreign stocks were being replenished, but later declined, although they still were relatively high. Wheat shipments were exceptionally large for a time because of the poor 1956 harvest in Europe and because of deliveries to the Far East under special programs. Two other export items—metals and coal—proved to be extremely sensitive to changes in demand—first when foreign production capacity was strained during the boom and later when excess capacity emerged. The effect of this changed world market situation on United States steel exports has been aggravated by intensified price competition from foreign suppliers. United States coal remains strongly competitive at its landed price abroad, but it is encountering serious obstacles in Europe. There, stocks have piled up at pithead because of continued high coal production in the face of decreased demand as a result of reduced activity in the European steel industry, cuts in users' stocks, gains in coal-burning efficiency, and further displacement by fuel oil. Exports of automobiles, parts, and accessories have shown a general and pronounced decline, after having failed to share in the over-all rise in 124 United States exports in 1957. The decline in 1958—especially that in exports of motor trucks which had previously increased—is attributable in considerable part to cyclical influences. Exports of passenger cars and of chassis, however, have fallen over the last several years so much that they now represent only a quarter of the total value of exports of this group. Meanwhile, exports of foreign cars have risen rapidly; in the first half of 1958, their value was equivalent to five times the American exports of passenger cars and chassis. The growth in demand abroad for the small foreign models reflects the spread of the market to lower income groups, the increase in traffic congestion in many cities, steeply graduated taxes on large cars and high gasoline taxes in many countries, continued restrictions on car imports in the producing countries, and, in some other countries, preferential import treatment for small cars. In addition to the influence of the shifts in the major export items just discussed, United States exports have been affected by changes in the economic situation in certain countries. The annual rate of sales to Canada alone in the first half of 1958 was $750 million below the rate a year earlier. Half of this decline was in exports of products other than the six discussed above (Table D-73). The decline in sales of machinery to Canada is especially noteworthy since it is in contrast to such sales to most other countries and reflects a slower rate of industrial investment in Canada. Much of the $400 million decline in the annual rate of exports to Western Europe (Table D-73) of items other than the six separately discussed is directly attributable to changes in general business conditions or in agricultural production, though the effects of these changes have been felt by other suppliers as well. In summary, the relatively sharp decline in United States exports after the middle of 1957 is accounted for by a combination of factors: the disappearance of certain special circumstances which had, for a time, raised shipments of petroleum, cotton, and wheat to exceptionally high levels; and cyclical shifts which had also lifted certain exports, such as steel and other metals, to unusually high levels but which now leave them temporarily depressed. Both sets of influences have affected United States exports with particular force because of their broad commodity composition, which differs from that of any other industrial country, and to some extent also because of their country distribution. These reasons for the wide swings in United States exports, however, do not diminish the importance of efforts to strengthen the position of the United States in a more highly competitive world market. FACTORS OF STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS IN UNITED STATES IMPORTS The total value of United States imports, on the other hand, has been relatively well maintained. This comparative strength is attributable to several forces, including particularly the maintenance of consumer demand. '25 TABLE C-25.—Change in United States imports, 1956 to 1958 [Millions of dollars, annual rates] Change Imports, first half 1956 Commodity group l Total imports for consumption .... Main items increasing l Meats meat products and cattle Other foods, except coffee Petroleum and products Automobiles _ - Items showing little change l Sawmill products Chemicals and related products _. Machinery, including agricultural and office Textile manufactures 2 Selected finished manufactures 8 _-. \11 other products Main items decreasing1. .. . _.. _ ... Coffee Nonferrous metals, iron ore, ferroalloys and steel-mill products _ . Diamonds, rough, cut, and bort. ..- _.. __ Natural crude rubber Wool and other textile fibers 4 Newsprint and paper base stocks . - First half First half half 1957 half 1958 1956 to first 1957 to first 12, 473 323 3, 220 420 728 164 1,696 1,232 128 24 -30 266 160 216 190 114 208 -298 3,611 47 -52 300 290 374 608 184 1, 855 -68 -6 70 4 34 13 -14 -2 18 -2 -6 -46 5, 642 -144 -974 1,500 -84 186 2,028 204 -52 -108 -68 -36 -482 -34 -100 -102 -70 244 450 416 1,004 1 2 3 Imports grouped according to direction of change from first half of 1957 to first half 1958. Semimanufactures other than man-made filaments included. Leather goods, photographic goods, scientific and professional instruments, toys and athletic goods, advanced metal manufactures. 4 Cotton, silk, man-made filaments, and hard fibers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. As shown in Table C-25, the value of a substantial number of imported commodities has either increased or changed very little. Imports of automobiles,, especially, continued to rise during the recession; imports of meat and other foodstuffs, except coffee, were substantially greater in the first half of 1958 than a year earlier, though largely because of temporary conditions affecting domestic supplies of some of these products; and petroleum imports were also higher, but the increase was less than in the first half of 1957, when the rise from a year earlier was due to higher prices as well as greater volume. The value of imports of coffee in the first half of 1958 was sharply below the value in the same period of 1956 and of 1957. The pressure of coffee supplies on the market resulted in some weakening of prices and therefore in increased caution in dealers' inventory policies; as a result, the volume as well as the price of coffee imports declined. The other main commodity imports shown in Table C-25 as decreasing are all in the nature of industrial materials. This group as a whole declined by an annual rate close to $800 million, or almost 20 percent, from the first half of 1957 to the first half of 1958. Reductions in volume and in price were of about equal importance. 126 These changes in United States imports affected different supplying countries and areas according to the composition of their exports. Exports from the Middle East to the United States increased because of petroleum; those from Mexico and Cuba expanded chiefly because of meat and other foodstuffs. On the other hand,, exports to the United States from the coffee-supplying countries in Latin America were depressed, and also those from Canada and Latin American countries for which nonferrous metals and other industrial materials are important. Influenced by good markets for cocoa and for African types of coffee, United States imports from Africa were well maintained. Imports from Europe fluctuated very little, as increases in automobiles offset decreases in steel and other metals. Imports from Japan rose, but those from other areas in the Far East fell because of smaller United States purchases of rubber and tin. INCREASE IN UNITED STATES INVESTMENT ABROAD Like receipts from exports, the net outflow of funds in the form of capital investment and grants from the United States had risen to a peak in the first half of 1957. The subsequent decline, however, was smaller than the decrease in exports, and the net outflow of funds in the first six months of 1958 still exceeded that in the corresponding period in 1956 or earlier (Table C-22). The large outflow in 1957 included substantial payments for oil concessions (Table D-72) and related investment activities in Venezuela. The net outflow of capital exclusive of these payments continued to increase during each of the last several years. Preliminary estimates indicate that the net outflow in the third quarter of 1958, adjusted to correct for the usual summer lull, was about the same as in the first half of the year, though with offsetting changes in the component items. The largest increase over the first half of 1956—at least up to mid1958—was in new foreign security offerings; United States private direct investment abroad, after a considerable expansion in 1957, fell back to its earlier level. (For details by type and area of investment, see Tables D-71 and D-72.) Private short-term credits abroad and Government lending have also risen, while the inflow of foreign redemption payments to American bondholders and of foreign long-term investment in this country has declined. There may also have been some unrecorded capital outflow, following the large shifts of funds to the United States during the Suez crisis and the subsequent currency speculation in Europe. By their nature, such shifts frequently do not appear in the recorded data on capital flows, and the only evidence of these movements lies in the behavior of the residual items (errors and omissions) in the United States global balance of payments (Tables C-22 and D-71). This item normally shows unidentified receipts of several hundred million dollars annually, because of overestimates of certain payments or underestimates of certain receipts for which precise records are not available. With due allowance for this dc- 127 ficiency in the estimates, the inflow of unrecorded capital during the 12 months from October 1956 through September 1957 seems to have reached something like $1 billion. Any subsequent outflow of these funds has been small, at most, or outweighed by other unrecorded receipts. The high level of foreign security flotations in the United States during the first half of 1958 is accounted for largely by bond offerings by the International bank for Reconstruction and Development to finance its growing lending operations abroad, and by Canadian issues. The spread between interest rates in the United States and Canada in the early part of the year gave a particular inducement to the flotation of Canadian issues in the United States market. There has also been, especially in the latter part of 1958, a noteworthy rise in securities offered by overseas countries. Foreign bonds payable in United States dollars have again become an attractive investment medium for security buyers, both in this country and abroad. The large outflow of public and private capital from the United States since the end of the war has helped to achieve a rapid growth in the world economy. It has also made possible a high volume of United States exports, directly by providing funds which were spent on United States goods and indirectly by leading to the strengthening of foreign reserves and helping to remove obstacles to international trade and payments. When, as recently, foreign purchases of American goods slacken for any reason, a continuing strong flow of dollars for imports and for foreign investment and grants results, for the time being in a faster increase in the gold and dollar holdings of other countries. At the same time, however, these movements strengthen the basis for economic expansion and generate conditions favorable to the growth of United States exports. Such considerations are pertinent to an appreciation of the foreign trade and payments position of the United States in 1958. RISE IN GOLD AND DOLLAR HOLDINGS OF INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Since the autumn of 1957, foreign countries and international institutions have increased considerably their holdings of gold and liquid dollar assets through transactions with the United States. During the year ended September 1958, their gains from this source totaled $0.8 billion in dollar funds and $1.8 billion in gold. Inclusive of gold acquired from new foreign production or other sources outside the United States, the 12-month gain in gold and dollar balances owned abroad amounted to $3.4 billion. This gain, however, accrued almost exclusively to the industrially developed countries; the holdings of other countries decreased considerably. The 12-month changes in foreign gold and dollar holdings (in millions of dollars) were distributed as follows: United Kingdom, +1,380; Netherlands, + 421; Belgium, +326; Italy, +416; Federal Republic of Germany. +263; Switzerland, +165; other Western Europe, +545; Canada, +149; Japan, + 312; Venezuela, —382; other Latin America, —226; all other countries, 128 — 311; international institutions, + 351 (see Table D-75 for further details). The increases were primarily in reserves of countries which ordinarily hold official reserves chiefly in gold, though some of them also added to their dollar holdings on official or private account. Conversely, the decreases were largely in countries (for example, most Latin American countries), which usually keep most or much of their official reserves in dollars, in addition to private funds held in this currency; however, some of them had to reduce their gold holdings also. INCREASE IN THE USE OF DOLLARS FOR MULTILATERAL SETTLEMENTS The large increases in the gold and dollar holdings of the industrially advanced countries—Western Europe, Canada, and Japan—resulted in considerable part from the strains in the foreign trade and payments of the less developed countries and of certain others which are also exporters of primary products. Domestic inflation, overimporting, and widespread declines in the prices of export commodities and in export earnings in recent years have caused sharp increases in the trade and payments deficits of the primary producing countries with third areas, chiefly Western Europe. (For changes in trade flows, see Chart 11 and Table D-74.) As a regular feature of the multilateral trade system, part of these deficits is usually settled in dollars. Indirect evidence indicates that the amount of dollars so employed recently has been much greater than in the years prior to 1957; in this comparison, 1957 is disregarded because of the exceptionally large deficits on trade or capital account of certain Western European countries and Japan. The data in Table C-26 (though subject to a considerable margin of error) suggest that the net annual rate of gold and dollars used for multilateral settlements by the countries exporting primary goods was at least $1 billion or more higher in the first half of 1958 than in the first half of 1956, and higher still in comparison with the 1952—56 average. The fact that the net receipts of gold and dollars of Western Europe, Canada, and Japan via multilateral settlements have risen by a still greater amount in the period since 1956 reflects the increased activity of the International Monetary Fund—which has helped to relieve strains in international payments—and the increase in loans by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The increase in multilateral settlements, far more than any change in the net receipts of the industrial countries from the United States, accounts for the recent large increases in the gold and dollar accumulations of this group of countries. By far the greater part of dollar settlements of the primary producing countries with the industrial group has been covered by their net receipts from the United States, as shown in Table C-26. These receipts, together with the growing financial support given by the United States through international institutions, have effectively assisted in rebuilding and 129 TABLE C-26.—Use of gold and dollars for international settlements, selected periods, 1952-58 [Millions of dollars] July 1952June 1956 (annual average) Area and item 1957, first half 1956, first half 1958, first half Annual rates Western Europe: Increase in gold and dollar holdings Less: Net receipts from known transactions with the United States ! Goods and services Capital 2 and grants _ Equals* Other gold and dollar receipts, net Canada: Increase in gold and dollar holdings LessNew gold production Net receipts from known transactions with the United States » Goods and services _ _ _ Capital 2 and grants _ _ Equals' Other gold and dollar receipts, net Japan: Increase in gold and dollar holdings Less: Net receipts from known transactions with the United States J Equals* Other gold and dollar receipts, net ... _ . Other countries: 3 Increase in gold and dollar holdings Less* New gold production 3 Net receipts from known transactions with the United States! Goods and services Capital 2 and grants •> Equals' Other gold and dollar receipts, net International institutions: Increase in gold and dollar holdings Less: Net receipts from known transactions with the United States ' Equals* Other gold and dollar receipts, net Addendum: Deficiency in sum of net gold and dollar receipts as given above Unidentified transfers, net, to the United States 4 Other unidentified uses [or receipts (— )] of gold and dollars, n e t . . _ _ _ _ _ _ 1,700 1,260 625 3,540 1,250 1,070 -235 1,410 140 1,110 80 990 -1,480 1,245 285 1,125 450 190 860 2,130 55 150 270 155 430 155 440 160 -575 -990 -635 -75 -970 395 -1,725 735 -1,920 1,285 -1,250 1,175 480 1,105 910 355 80 290 -785 435 325 350 -325 250 -245 -60 -460 185 200 665 330 725 890 740 -765 785 870 1,400 1,400 1,500 -885 1,755 -1,290 2,690 -2,650 4,050 -1,900 3,400 -1,335 -1,795 -1,250 -3,050 165 115 -900 450 75 40 320 660 90 75 -1, 220 -210 560 485 1,160 590 290 315 1,250 485 270 170 -90 105 1 See Table D-72. The balance for Japan, however, is a rough estimate by the Council of Economic Advisers, and the figures for "other countries" have been adjusted accordingly to exclude Japan. 2 Includes movements of long- and short-term U. S. capital and of foreign long-term investments in the United States (other than United States Government securities). 3 Excludes gold holdings and gold production of the U.S.S.R. and other countries of the Soviet bloc 4 Errors and omissions item in Table D-71, expressed as an annual rate rounded to the nearest $5 million NOTE.—The area or country figures on "other gold and dollar receipts" (derived as a residual in the manner indicated above) include not only inter-area settlements but also unrecorded transfers to the United States. The latter are known only on a net global basis Cas the errors and omissions item in the United States over-all balance of payments). They explain, as shown in the addendum to the table above, most of the discrepancy between the sums of the plus and minus figures for "other gold and dollar receipts." The remainder of the discrepancy would, in principle, represent the net effect of such operations as (a) use of gold in the arts and industry or for hoarding and (6) receipts of gold from dishoarding or from Soviet sales. Source: Council of Economic Advisers. 130 strengthening the framework of multilateral trade and payments and have contributed much to the progress in overcoming restrictive forces in the world economy. For the remainder of their multilateral gold and dollar settlements, the primary producing countries have drawn on their accumulated gold and dollar holdings. In addition, they reduced their balances in other currencies; sterling balances alone were drawn down in the first half of 1958 at an annual rate of some $300 million, compared with no reduction two years earlier. Preliminary estimates indicate that in the third quarter of 1958 the primary producing countries continued to make large settlements in gold and dollars, covered partly by their net receipts from the United States and partly by further drawings on their reserves. Canada also showed net payments for the quarter, though perhaps for seasonal reasons. Western Europe's net gold and dollar receipts from third countries continued at about the same rate as earlier in the year; these receipts, together with a large surplus in transactions with the United States, caused Western Europe's gold and dollar holdings to rise further. UNITED STATES EXPORT PERFORMANCE AND THE ADJUSTMENT PROBLEM The increase in the foreign investment and other payments of the United States in recent years has not been matched by an equally large growth in its exports of goods and services. The annual rate of outflow through private and public investments and grants, net of foreign long-term investment in this country, was some $2.8 billion higher in the first three quarters of 1958 than in 1952-56 (Table C-22). Imports of goods and services together with military expenditures abroad rose over the same period by $3.1 billion. Thus, the total increase in these transactions was $5.9 billion. Exports of goods and services have risen about $4.4 billion above the 1952-56 average, or at an annual rate of 6 percent. Most of this increase had occurred by 1956, and was surpassed temporarily in 1957 because of exceptional demand forces at that time. The level actually attained in 1958 can be regarded as a significant increase in relation to earlier years, since foreign economic conditions last year were not favorable to the normal development of United States exports. Some major shifts in international trade were unavoidable, not only because of the cessation of certain conditions (such as those related to the Suez crisis) that had prevailed in the early part of 1957, but also because various maladjustments had arisen during the previous period of rapid growth (see Chapter 2 ) . Contrasting developments during the two latest recessions illustrate the significance of sustained world economic growth for United States exports. While United States imports slackened in the 1953-54 recession and remained weak for some time, exports, after only a momentary pause, followed the upward course of economic activity abroad (Charts 10 and 11) and contributed to recovery in the United States. Appendix D STATISTICAL TABLES 133 4890160—59 -10 CONTENTS National income or expenditure: D-l. Gross national product or expenditure, 1929-58 D-2. Gross national product or expenditure, in 1958 prices, 1929-58 D-3. Gross private and government product, in current and 1958 prices, 1929-58 D-4. Gross national product or expenditure, in 1954 prices, 1929-58 D-5. Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-58 D-6. Gross national product: Receipts and expenditures by major economic groups, 1929-58 D—7. Personal consumption expenditures, 1929-58 D-8. Gross private domestic investment, 1929-58 D-9. National income by type of income, 1929-58 D-10. Relation of gross national product and national income, 1929-58. . . . D—11. Relation of national income and personal income, 1929-58 D-l2. Sources of personal income, 1929-58 D-l 3. Disposition of personal income, 1929-58 D-l 4. Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures, in current and 1958 prices, 1929-58 D-l 5. Financial saving by individuals, 1939-58 D-l 6. Sources and uses of gross saving, 1929-58 Employment and wages: D-l 7. Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-58 D-l8. Employment and unemployment, by age and sex, 1942-58 D-l 9. Employed persons not at work, by reason for not working, and special groups of unemployed persons, 1946-58 D—20. Unemployed persons, by duration of unemployment, 1946-58 D—21. Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1939 and 1946-58. D-22. Number of wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1929-58 ' D-23. Average weekly hours of work in selected industries, 1929-58 D—24. Average gross hourly earnings in selected industries, 1929-58 D—25. Average gross weekly earnings in selected industries, 1929-58 D-26. Average weekly hours and hourly earnings, gross and excluding overtime, in manufacturing industries, 1939-58 D—27. Average weekly earnings, gross and net spendable, in manufacturing industries, in current and 1958 prices, 1939-58 D-28. Labor turnover rates in manufacturing industries, 1930-58 Production and business activity: D-29. Industrial production indexes, 1929-58 D—30. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1939 and 1945-59 . D-31. New construction activity, 1929-58 D-32. New public construction activity, 1929-58 D—33. Housing starts and applications for financing, 1929-58 D—34. Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade, 1939-58 D—35. Manufacturers' sales, inventories, and orders, 1939-58 135 Page 139 140 142 143 144 146 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 160 161 162 163 164 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 174 175 176 177 178 179 Prices: Page D-36. Wholesale price indexes, 1929-58 180 D-37. Wholesale price indexes, by stage of processing, 1947-58 182 D-38. Consumer price indexes, 1929-58 184 D-39. Consumer price indexes, by selected major groups, 1935-58 185 Money supply, credit, and finance: D-40. Deposits and currency, 1929-58 186 D-41. Loans and investments of all commercial banks, 1929-58 187 D-42. Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 1929-58. . . . 188 D-43. Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-58 189 D-44. Short- and intermediate-term consumer credit outstanding, 1929-58. . 191 D-45. Instalment credit extended and repaid, 1946-58 192 D-46. Mortgage debt outstanding, by type of property and of financing, 1939-58 193 D-47. Net public and private debt, 1929-58 194 Government finance: D-48. U. S. Government debt, by kind of obligation, 1929-58 195 D-49. Estimated ownership of Federal obligations, 1939-58 196 D-50. Federal budget receipts and expenditures and the public debt, 1929-60 197 D-51. Federal budget receipts by source and expenditures by function, fiscal years 1946-60 198 D-52. Government cash receipts from and payments to the public, 1946-60. . 199 D-53. Government receipts and expenditures as shown in the national income accounts, 1955-58 200 D-54. Reconciliation of Federal Government receipts and expenditures in the conventional budget and the consolidated cash statement with receipts and expenditures in the national income accounts, fiscal years 1956-58 201 D-55. State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected fiscal years, 1927-57 202 Corporate profits and finance: D-56. Profits before and after taxes, all private corporations, 1929-58 203 D-57. Relation of profits before and after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, private manufacturing corporations, by asset size class, 1956-58 204 D-58. Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, private manufacturing corporations, by industry group, 1956-58. . 205 D-59. Sources and uses of corporate funds, 1947-58 207 D-60. Current assets and liabilities of U. S. corporations, 1954-58 208 D-61. State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-58 209 D-62. Common stock prices and earnings and stock market credit, 1939-58. 210 D-63. Business population and business failures, 1929-58 211 Agriculture: D-64. Income of the farm population, 1929-58 212 D-65. Farm population, employment, and productivity, 1929-58 213 D-66. Farm production indexes, 1929-58 214 D-67. Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, and parity ratio, 1929-58 215 D-68. Comparative balance sheet of agriculture, 1940-59 216 D-69. Level-of-living indicators for farm-operator families, selected years, 1920-56 216 D-70. Selected indicators of farming conditions, 1929-58 217 136 International transactions: D-71. United States balance of payments, 1952-58 D-72. United States balance of payments with individual areas, 1952-58. . . . D—73. United States exports by selected commodities and markets, 1956-58 . D-74. World exports, 1956-58 D-75. Estimated gold reserves and dollar holdings of foreign countries and international institutions, 1952 and 1956-58 D—76. Price changes in international trade, 1955-58 137 Page 218 219 222 223 224 225 NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE TABLE D-l.—Gross national product or expenditure, 1929-58 [Billions of dollars] Gross private domestic investment 2 Period PerTotal sonal gross conna- sumptional tion prodexuct penditures i § 1 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 . 1941 1942 . . _ 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 . 1956 1957 6 1958 1956: First quarter Second quarter __ Third quarter Fourth quarter _ _ 1957: First quarter Second quarter __ Third quarter Fourth quarter __ 1958: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 6 _ 1 1 Government purchases of goods and services £ Is 2~ •°'S fi-3 Federal X! II j!>§-** 1 3 O< ^ o> "3 Net exports of goods and services 3 CJ w £ s £ I en I w •§o a s 3 h-H e 'cs 1 11 '£ Oi ccid feS ^3 £3 c CD ft 6 1. 3 1. 4 1. 5 1. 5 03 9t3<D J 1 | 00 104.4 91.1 76.3 58.5 56.0 65.0 72.5 82.7 90.8 85.2 91.1 100.6 125.8 159.1 192.5 211.4 213.6 210.7 234.3 259.4 258.1 284.6 329.0 347.0 365.4 363.1 397.5 419.2 440.3 436.7 79.0 71.0 61.3 49.3 46.4 51.9 56.3 62.6 67.3 64.6 67.6 71.9 81.9 89.7 100.5 109.8 121.7 147.1 165.4 178.3 181.2 195.0 209.8 219.8 232.6 238.0 256. 9 269.4 284.4 290.6 16.2 10.3 5.5 .9 1.4 2.9 6.3 8.4 11.7 6.7 9.3 13.2 18.1 9.9 5.6 7.1 10.4 28.1 31.5 43.1 33.0 50.0 56.3 49.9 50.3 48.9 63.8 68.2 65.3 53.5 8.7 6.2 4.0 1.9 1.4 1.7 2.3 3.3 4.4 4.0 4.8 5.5 6.6 3.7 2.3 2.7 3.8 11.0 15.3 19.5 18.8 24.2 24.8 25.5 27.6 29.7 34.9 35.7 36.5 36.5 5.8 1.7 0.8 4.5 -.4 .7 .2 2.8 1 3 .2 1.6 -2.6 .2 1.6 -1.6 1 l .4 2.3 3.1 .9 -.1 4.2 1.0 -.1 .1 5.1 2.2 3.6 -.9 1.1 .4 .9 4.2 5.5 2.2 1.5 6.9 4.5 1.1 4.3 1.8 -.2 4.0 -.8 -2.2 5.4 -1.0 -2.1 7.7 -1.1 -1.4 10.7 6.4 4.9 16.7 -.5 9.0 18.9 4.7 3.5 3.8 17.2 -3.1 18.9 6.8 .6 21.3 10.2 2.4 21.3 3.1 1.3 A .4 22.3 20.8 -1.6 i.'o 23.1 5.8 1.1 27.0 5.4 2.8 27.9 1.0 4.9 22.6 -5.6 1.3 7.0 5.4 3. 6 2.5 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 5.4 6.0 4.9 4.5 5.4 7.4 12.8 17.9 14.5 14.0 13.1 17.9 17.4 16.6 17.5 19.4 23.0 26.0 (7) 6.3 4.8 3.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 3.3 3.6 4.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.8 5.1 6.8 7.5 8.8 7.9 8.9 11.0 10.2 12.5 15.5 16.1 17.0 16.5 18.3 20.2 21.0 (7) 8.5 9.2 9.2 8.1 8.0 9.8 10.0 11.8 11.7 12.8 13.3 14.1 24.8 59.7 88.6 96.5 82.9 30.5 28.4 34.5 40.2 39.0 60.5 76.0 82.8 75.3 75.6 78.8 85.7 91.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.0 3.0 2.9 4.8 4.6 5.3 5.2 6.2 16.9 52.0 81.2 89.0 74.8 20.6 15.6 19.3 22.2 19.3 38.8 52.9 58.0 47.5 45.3 45.7 49.4 51.6 2. 0 3. 0 2. 9 4. 8 4. 6 5. 3 1.3 3.9 2.2 4.0 13.8 3.2 49.6 2.7 80.4 1.5 88.6 1.6 75.9 1.0 18.8 4.5 11.4 5.4 11.6 8.2 13.6 8.9 14.3 5.2 33.9 5.2 46.4 6.7 49.3 9.0 41.2 6.7 39.1 6.6 40.3 5.7 44.3 5.5 44.3 7.6 410.8 414.9 420. 5 430. 5 265.2 267.2 269.7 275.4 68.0 67.7 68.1 68.8 35.2 35.8 35.8 36.2 25.9 26.6 27.3 28.2 6.9 5.4 4.9 4.4 .8 2.8 3.2 4.4 20.9 22.5 23.6 24.8 20.1 19.8 20.4 20.4 76.8 77.2 79.5 81.8 44.8 44.5 46.1 47.5 39.1 39.1 41.0 42.1 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.7 .3 32.0 .4 32.7 . i 33.4 34.4 436. 3 441.2 445. 6 438.9 279.8 282.5 288.3 287.2 65.9 67.0 66.7 61.5 36.1 36.1 36.6 37.1 28.7 1.1 28.1 2.9 28.0 2.2 26.7 -2.3 5.6 6.0 4.8 3.3 26.4 26.6 26.0 24.9 20.8 20.6 21.2 21.6 85.0 85.7 85.8 86.9 49.1 49.7 49.7 49.1 43.7 44.9 44.9 43.9 5.8 5.1 5.2 5.7 !si 425.8 429.0 439.0 453.0 286.2 288.3 291.5 296.5 49.6 *49.2 853.7 861.5 1.7 21.9 20.2 88.3 1.7 22.4 20.8 89.7 1.7 22.8 21.2 92.0 (7) ( 7 ) 94.8 49.7 50.7 52.2 53.8 43.7 44.1 44.5 45.0 6.3 6.9 8.0 9.2 36.3 8 22.9 Q C 34.9 22. 3 36.3 »22.3 -5.0 38.6 823.0 (8) -s!o (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) 0.2 .6 1.2 2.2 2.7 1.1 .5 .2 .1 .3 .3 .3 .3 .4 .3 .4 g 7.2 7.8 7.7 6.6 6.0 6.8 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.5 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.5 8.1 9.9 12.7 15.2 17.9 19.7 21.7 23.2 24.9 27.7 30.3 33.1 36.3 39.6 i 35.9 36.0 36.1 37.8 38.6 39.1 39.9 41.0 1 2 3 See Table D-7 for major components. See Table D-8 for more detail and explanation of components. For 1929-45, net exports of goods and services and net foreign investment have been equated, since foreign net transfers by government were negligible during that period. 4 This category corresponds closely to the major national security classification in the Budget of the United States Government for the Fiscal Year ending June 30,1960. 5 Less than $50 million. 6 Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. 78 Not available. Data for the last 3 quarters of 1958 have not been revised to reflect lower expenditures reported in the last two surveys of business expenditures for new plant and equipment. See Table D-30. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). TABLE D-2.—Gross national product or expenditure•, in 7958 prices, 7929-58 1—Continued [Billions of dollars, 1958 prices] Personal consumption expenditures Period Total gross national product Total Gross private domestic investment New construction Produc- Change Dura- Noners' in busiResible durable Services Total durable ness dential goods goods equipTotal (non- Other ment inventories farm) 1929 201.0 138.0 15.7 69.4 52.9 40.6 24.1 9.6 14.5 13.2 3.3 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 182.0 168.3 143.1 139.5 152.9 129.7 125.7 114.3 111.6 117.4 12.5 10.8 8.2 7.9 9.1 66.1 65.7 60.5 58.7 62.6 51.1 49.2 45.6 45.0 45.7 27.8 17.3 4.9 5.1 9.1 17.9 12.6 7.0 5.3 5.9 5.6 4.7 2.3 1.7 2.1 12.3 7.9 4.7 3.6 3.8 10.5 7.0 4.2 4.4 6.0 —.6 -2.3 -6.2 -4.6 -2.8 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 168.3 191.7 202. 5 192.8 208.8 124.7 137.5 142.3 139.9 147.8 11.3 13.9 14.6 11.8 14.0 66.1 73.7 76.2 77.5 81.6 47.3 49.9 51.6 50.6 52.1 18.3 24.6 31.0 18.0 25.1 7.8 10.8 13.0 11.6 14.0 3.4 5.1 5.5 5.6 7.5 4.3 5.8 7.5 6.0 6.4 8.0 10.9 12.4 8.6 10.0 2.6 2.9 5.6 -2.2 1.1 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 227.0 264.1 299.4 335.7 360.0 155. 7 166.0 162. 4 166.6 172.6 16.2 18.6 11.5 9.9 9.1 85.4 91.1 92.9 95.8 100.0 54.1 56.3 58.0 60.9 63.5 33.4 42.3 21.7 12.9 14.5 15.6 17.5 9.0 5.1 5.6 8.1 8.7 4.0 1.9 1.6 7.5 8.8 5.0 3.2 4.0 13.0 15.3 8.8 8.2 10.9 4.8 9.5 3.9 -.4 -2.0 354.1 312. 2 311.8 323.7 324.0 184.6 207.0 210.5 214.5 220.0 10.3 20.5 24.6 26.0 27.8 107.9 114.5 112.0 111.8 113.1 66.4 72.0 73.9 76.8 79.1 20.1 49.0 48.8 57.2 45.4 7.7 20.0 22.9 26.0 25.6 2.0 8.1 10.7 12.7 12.5 5.7 11.9 12.2 13.3 13.2 15.1 19.1 25.8 27.0 23.5 -2.8 9.9 .1 4.2 -3.7 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 351.6 379.6 393. 3 411.1 403.2 233.4 235.3 241.4 253.1 256.3 33.9 30.8 30.1 34.9 34.2 116.2 118.3 122.3 125.9 127.0 83.3 86.2 89.0 92.3 95.1 64.4 66.9 58.6 59.1 56.7 31.3 29.9 29.8 31.7 34.1 17.2 14.3 14.2 15.1 17.1 14.1 15.7 15.6 16.6 17.0 25.3 26.1 25.9 26.7 24.7 7.8 10.9 2.9 -2.'f) 1955 1956 1957 1958 7 435.4 446.1 451.1 436.7 275.6 284.0 291.1 290.6 41.8 40.0 40.3 36.8 133.4 138.5 141.2 142.0 100.4 105.4 109.6 111.8 72.1 73.1 67.0 53.5 38.8 37.7 37.2 36.5 20.1 18.1 17.2 17.8 18.7 19.5 20.0 18.7 26.7 29.4 28.6 22.6 6.5 6.0 1.2 -5.6 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 --. Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956: First quarter Second quarter.. Third quarter... Fourth quarter ... 443.4 444. 1 445. 1 451.5 282.8 283.0 282.9 287.1 41.0 39.6 38.8 40.5 138. 3 138.7 138. 0 139. 2 103. 5 104.7 106.1 107.4 74.7 72.7 72.5 72.4 38.1 37.6 37.5 37.6 18.7 18.1 17.9 18.0 19.4 19.4 19.7 19.6 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.8 7 6 6.0 5.4 5.0 1957: First quarter Second quarter _. Third quarter. _ _ Fourth quarter.. 452. 4 453.7 453.3 444.4 289.1 290.1 293.9 291.3 40.9 39.8 40.7 39.8 140.0 140.8 143. 0 140.9 108.3 109. 5 110.2 110.6 68.9 68.9 67.7 62.3 37.6 36.7 37.0 37.4 17.4 16.6 16.9 17.6 20.1 20.1 20.0 19.8 29.8 28.9 28.5 27.0 1.5 3.3 2.2 -2.1 1958: First quarter Second quarter. _ Third quarter... Fourth quarter 7. 427.7 429.0 438. 6 451.5 287.4 288.2 291.5 295.5 36.6 35. 8 36.1 38.6 139. 9 140.9 143.1 144.2 110.8 49.8 111.5 M9.2 112.2 ^53.7 112.8 '61.4 36.4 34.8 36.4 38.5 17.1 16. 3 18.0 20.0 19.2 18.5 18.4 18.5 23.0 '22.3 *22.3 s 23. 0 -9.5 -8.0 -5.0 (e) See footnotes at end of table, p. 141. 140 TABLE D-2.—Gross national product or expenditure, in 1958 prices, 1929-58 l—Continued [Billions of dollars, 1958 prices] Government purchases of goods and services Net exports of goods and services 2 Period Federal Total 1929 . 1930 1931. 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 .9 . - . - --_ - - . . 7 . .. . 21.5 State and local National defense 3 4 Other 3.5 (5) (6) 18.0 (55) (5) (5) ( 5) () (55) (5) () (5) 3.1 5.6 29.4 94.8 143.4 160.4 136.2 26.0 14.9 15.5 17.9 18.6 40.1 54.8 58.6 48.2 (55) ( s) () (') (5) (55) ( 5) ( 5) () 9.8 9.9 6.8 5.1 2.7 2.8 1.9 7.3 7.9 11.5 11.9 6.9 6.2 8.0 10.8 7.9 19.7 20.7 19.2 16.9 18.3 18.9 19.2 18.9 20.1 22.1 20.8 19.6 17.8 16.2 15.9 16.2 18.2 20.6 22.2 25.3 27.2 27.8 28.3 29.5 32.0 43.9 43.4 44.8 44.0 7.4 6.2 5.6 7.6 34.3 35.7 37.3 39.6 Total 3 .8 .2 .1 -.4 -.2 -1.5 -1.7 -1.1 1.4 .8 1.7 (6) -2.4 -6.1 -6.2 -4.9 4.7 9.1 2.8 3.5 1.1 3.2 2.3 .1 2.0 23.7 25.0 23.8 23.1 26.5 26.8 31.3 30.3 33.6 35.1 36.3 55.8 117.8 162.3 179.2 154.4 51.5 43.4 49.2 55.2 52.6 74.1 91.1 98.8 88.1 4.0 4.4 4.6 6.2 8.2 7.9 12.1 11.4 13.5 13.0 15.5 36.2 99.9 146.1 163.3 138.1 33.3 22.8 27.0 29.8 25.5 46.3 62.8 69.3 56.1 2.1 3.7 5.3 1.3 85.6 85.3 87.7 91.2 51.3 49.6 50.4 51.6 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1.5 3.7 4.2 ,5.4 84.3 84.5 85.5 86.6 49.1 49.0 49.9 50.3 42.4 42.7 44.0 44.3 6.7 6.3 5.9 6.0 35.2 35.5 35.6 36.2 1957: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 6.0 6.6 M 3.4 88.3 88.1 86.6 87.4 51.2 51.2 49.9 49.3 45.2 45.9 44.7 43.6 6.0 5.3 5.3 5.7 37.1 36.9 36.7 38.1 1958: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter _ 7 . . . . Fourth quarter 1.7 1.7 1.7 .2 88.8 89.9 91.7 94.5 49.9 50.9 51.9 53.5 43.6 44.0 44.0 44.5 6.3 6.9 7.9 9.1 38.9 39.0 39.8 40.9 1956: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter ... _ _ 1 These estimates represent an approximate conversion of the Department of Commerce series in 1954 prices. (See Tables D-4 and D 5.) This was done by major components, using the implicit price indexes converted to a 1958 base. Although it would have been preferable to redeflate the series by minor components, this would not substantially change the results except possibly for the period of World War II, and for the scries on change in business inventories. For explanation of conversion of estimates in current prices to those in 1954 prices, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Surrey of Current Business, 1959. (The basic income and product series have been revised beginning 1946.) 2 For 1929-45, net exports of goods and services and net foreign investment have been equated, since foreign net3 transfers by government were negligible during that period. Net of Government sales, which are not shown separately in this table. See Table D-1 for Government sales in current prices. * See Table D-1, footnote 4. 5 Not available separately. 6 Less than $50 million. 7 Preliminary. * See footnote 8, Table D-1. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers. 141 TABLE D—3.—Gross private and government product, in current and 1958 prices, 7929-58 [Billions of dollars] Current prices Total gross national product Period 1929.. 1958 prices * Gross private product l Total Farm 2 Nonfarm Gross government product a Total gross national product Gross private product 1 Total Farm 2 Nonfarm Gross government product' 104.4 100.1 9.8 90.3 4.3 201.0 188.3 16.6 171.6 12.7 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 91.1 76.3 58.5 56.0 65.0 86.6 71.6 54.0 51.3 59.4 7.7 6.2 4.4 4.6 4.3 78.8 65.4 49.6 46.7 55.1 4.5 4.7 4.4 4.7 5.6 182.0 168.3 143.1 139.5 152.9 168.7 154.7 129.9 125.2 136.4 15.2 17.8 16.7 16.5 13.7 153.5 137.0 113.2 108.7 122.8 13.4 13.6 13.3 14.2 16.4 1935 1936 _ 1937 1938 1939.. 72.5 82.7 90.8 85.2 91.1 66.6 75.5 83.9 77.6 83.5 6.9 6.3 8.1 6.7 6.5 59.6 69.2 75.8 70.9 77.0 5.9 7.3 6.9 7.6 7.6 168.3 191.7 202.5 192.8 208.8 150.8 171.1 183.1 171.8 187.6 16.7 14.2 17.8 18.0 17.9 134.1 156.8 165.3 153.9 169.7 17.6 20.6 19.4 21.0 21.2 100.6 125.8 159.1 192.5 211.4 92.8 116.4 144.0 167.0 179.2 6.8 9.4 13.4 15.3 15.7 86.0 107.0 130.6 151.7 163.5 7.8 9.4 15.1 25.6 32.2 227.0 264.1 299.4 335.7 360.0 205.2 236.9 259.9 273.7 288.3 17.6 19.0 20.6 18.9 19.4 187.5 218.0 239.2 254.8 268.9 21.8 27.2 39.6 62.0 71.7 213.6 210.7 234.3 . _ 259.4 258.1 178.4 189.9 217.6 242.0 238.7 16.2 19.3 20.7 23.8 19.3 162.2 170.7 196.9 218.2 219.4 35.2 20.7 16.7 17.4 19.4 354.1 312.2 311.8 323.7 324.0 283.8 275.3 283.8 295.6 294.5 18.3 18.6 17.0 19.5 18.5 265.5 256.8 266.7 276.1 276.0 70.3 36.8 28.1 28.1 29.5 1950 1951 - . . .. 1952 1953_ . .. . 1954 284.6 329.0 347.0 365.4 363.1 263.8 301.7 316.0 333.6 330.8 20.5 23.6 22.8 20.9 20.3 243.2 278.2 293.2 312.7 310.5 20.8 27.3 31.0 31.8 32.3 351.6 379.6 393.3 411.1 403.2 321.0 341.7 352.4 370.6 363.3 19.5 18.2 19.0 19.6 20.5 301. 5 323.5 333.4 351.0 342.8 30.5 37.9 40.9 40.5 39.8 1955 1956 1957 5 1958 _-_ 397.5 419.2 440.3 436.7 363.5 382.9 401.7 395.6 19.6 19.4 19.3 22.1 343.9 363.5 382.4 373.5 34.0 36.3 38.6 41.1 435.4 446.1 451.1 436.7 395.6 405.7 410.1 395.6 21.6 21.7 21.0 22.1 374.0 383.9 389.1 373.5 39.8 40.4 40.9 41.1 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948. . 1949 . __ . 1 Gross national product less compensation of general government employees, i. e., gross product accruing from domestic business, households, and institutions, and from the rest of the world. 2 See Survey of Current Business, October 1958, for description of series and estimates in current and constant prices and implicit deflators for 1910-57. 3 Includes compensation of general government employees and excludes compensation of employees in government enterprises. Government enterprises are those agencies of government whose operating costs are at least to a substantial extent covered by the sale of goods and services, in contrast to the general activities of government which are financed mainly by tax revenues and debt creation. Government enterprises, in other words, conduct operations essentially commercial in character, even though they perform them under governmental auspices. The Post Office and public power systems are typical examples of government enterprises. On the other hand, State universities and public parks, where the fees and admissions cover only a nominal part of operating costs, are part of general government activities. *8 See Table D-2, footnote 1. Preliminary. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Pusiness, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers. 142 TABLE D-4.—Gross national product or expenditure, in 7954 prices, 7929-58l [Billions of dollars, 1954 prices] Personal consumption Gross private domestic expenditures investment Total gross national product Period .2 •8 15 3 1 Q Is ll 1 1 I! si 1 1 II 3 1* I be 02o 0 £ Net exports of soods and services 2 Government purchases of goods and services Gross private prod1 uct 4 3 3 I O OH 1 2 02 1929 181.8 128.1 14.9 65.3 48.0 35.0 20.9 11.1 3.0 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 164.5 153.0 130.1 126.6 138.5 120.3 11.8 116.6 10.3 106.0 7.8 103.5 7.5 108.9 8.6 62.1 61.8 56.9 55.2 58.8 46.4 23.6 15.4 44.6 15.0 10.9 41.4 3.9 6.0 40.8 4.0 4.6 41.5 7.4 5.1 8.8 5.9 3.5 3.7 5.0 -.7 -1.8 -5.6 -4.2 -2.8 152.9 173.3 183.5 175.1 189.3 115.8 127.7 132.1 129.9 137.3 10.7 13.1 13.8 11.2 13.3 62.1 69.2 71.6 72.8 76.7 42.9 45.3 46.8 45.9 47.2 16.1 6.7 21.0 9.4 27.0 11.3 15.5 10.1 21.6 12.2 6.7 2.6 -1.9 9.2 2.4 -2.2 10.5 5.2 -1.6 7.3 -1.8 .8 8.5 1.0 .3 205. 8 238.1 266.9 296.7 317.9 144.6 15.3 154.3 17.6 150.8 10.9 154.6 9.4 160.2 8.6 80.2 85.6 87.3 90.0 94.0 49.1 51.1 52.6 55.2 57.6 29.0 13.6 36.7 15.3 18.8 7.8 10.7 4.4 12.3 4.8 10.9 4.5 1.1 12.9 8.6 -.6 7.4 3.6 -2.9 6.9 -.6 -6.6 9.2 -1.7 -6.7 314.0 282.5 282.3 293.1 292.7 171.4 192.3 195.6 199.3 204.3 9.8 19.4 23.3 24.6 26.3 101.4 107.6 105.3 105.1 106.3 60.2 65.3 67.0 69.6 71.7 17.0 42.4 41.5 49.8 38.5 6.6 17.3 19.9 22.7 22.3 12.7 -2.4 -5.6 131.2 117.1 14.0 257. 0 16.1 9.0 3.8 43.9 28.2 15.8 252.7 21.7 -.1 8.0 37.2 19.4 17.8 259.6 22.8 4.4 2.0 42.1 22.9 19.2 270.3 19.8 -3.6 2.6 47.2 25.3 21.9 268.7 318. 1 341.8 353. 5 369.0 363.1 216.8 218.5 224.2 235.1 238. 0 32.1 29.2 28.5 33.1 32.4 109.2 111.2 115.0 118.3 119.3 75.5 78.2 80.8 83.7 86.3 55.9 57.7 50.4 50.6 48.9 27.4 26.0 26.0 27.6 29.7 21.3 7.2 22.0 9.7 21.8 2.6 22.5 .5 20.8 -1.6 .2 2.2 1.2 -.9 1.0 45.1 63.3 77.7 84.3 75.3 21.6 39.3 53.3 58.8 47.5 23.5 24.1 24.5 25.5 27.7 293. 3 311.1 320.4 336.2 330.8 392.7 402.2 407.0 394.3 256.0 263.7 270.3 269.7 39.6 37.9 38.1 34.8 125.4 91.0 130.2 95.6 132.7 99.4 133.5 101.4 62.5 63.1 57.8 46.5 33.9 32.8 32.3 31.8 22.5 6.1 24.8 5.6 24.1 1.4 19.1 -4.4 .9 2.4 3.9 .1 73.2 72.9 75.0 78.0 43.5 42.0 42.7 43.7 29.7 30.9 32.3 34.3 360.4 369.4 373.8 361.0 399.6 400.4 401.4 407.1 262.7 262.9 262.7 266.6 38.8 37.5 36.8 38.4 130.0 130.3 129.7 130. 8 64.5 62.8 62.8 62.5 33.2 32.7 32.7 32.7 24.4 24.6 24.9 25.1 6.9 5.5 5.2 4.6 0.3 2.5 2.9 4.0 72.1 72.3 73.1 74.0 41.6 41.6 42.3 42.7 30.4 30.7 30.8 31.3 407.9 409.3 409.1 401.2 268.5 269.3 272.9 270.4 38.7 37.7 38.5 37.6 131. 6 98.2 59.3 132.3 99.3 59.5 134.4 100.0 58.4 132.4 100.3 54.0 32.7 31.9 32.1 32.5 25.2 1.5 24.3 3.3 24.0 2.3 22.7 -1.3 4.6 5.1 3.7 2.0 75.5 75.4 74.1 74.8 43.4 43.4 42.3 41.8 32.1 31.9 31.8 33.0 386. 2 387.3 396.1 407.8 266.7 267.4 270.5 274.3 34.6 33.9 34.2 36.5 131. 5 132.4 134.5 135.5 31.6 19.4 -7.8 30.3 718.8 -6.5 31.7 718.8 -3.9 33.6 719.3 .7 .4 .3 .5 -.9 75.9 76.9 78.4 80.8 42.3 43.2 44.0 45.4 33.6 33.8 34.4 35.4 .. 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 .. 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 . . . 1952 1953 .. 1954 _ „ 1955 1956 1957 1958 5 0.2 18.5 .2 -.3 -.3 -.8 -.6 2.9 15.6 171.5 3.4 3.7 3.9 5.3 6.9 17.1 17.9 16.6 14.6 15.8 153.7 142.0 119.4 115.0 125.1 23.0 6.7 16.3 26.9 10.3 16.6 26.0 9.6 16.4 28.8 11.4 17.4 30.1 11.0 19.1 138.7 156.6 167.8 158.1 172.1 20.5 21.6 20.5 19.9 22.8 31.1 13.1 47.7 30.7 100.1 84.7 137.9 123.9 152.2 138.4 18.0 16.9 15.4 14.0 13.8 188.1 216.0 234.8 246.4 259.8 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956: First quarter Second quarter _ _ Third quarter Fourth quarter. . 1957: First quarter Second quarter, _ Third quarter.... Fourth quarter. . 1958: First quarter Second quarter _ _ Third quarter.... Fourth quarter 5. 93.9 95.0 C6.3 97.4 100.5 43.2 101.1 742.6 101.8 746.6 102.3 753.6 1 i For explanation of conversion of estimates in current prices to those in 1954 prices, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Busmess, 1959. (The basic income and product series have been revised beginning 1946.) See Table D-5 for implicit price deflators. 3 For 1929-45, net exports of goods and services and net foreign investment have been equated, sine*1, foreign net3 transfers by government were negligible during that period. Net of Government sales. 4 Gross national product less compensation of general government employees. 5 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. 6 Not available. 7 See footnote 8, Table D-l. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). H3 TABLE D-5.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-58 [Index numbers, 1954 = 100] Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product i Period Gross private domestic investment ! New construction Total DuraNonble durable Services goods goods Total Residential nonfarm Producers' durable Other equipment 57.4 61.6 62.0 57.7 66.8 41.7 41.8 41.6 52.5 55.4 49.9 44.9 44.2 46.9 59.0 52.6 46.5 44.8 47.6 60.5 53.5 47.0 46.1 48.8 54.8 46.9 40.0 40.3 45.3 64.2 60.3 55.3 50.7 50.7 40.0 36.5 31.1 31.2 33.3 40.8 37.1 30.1 29.8 33.1 39.7 36.2 31.7 31.9 33.4 50.5 47.9 45.5 43.1 45.9 47.4 47.7 49.5 48.7 48.1 48.6 49.1 50.9 49.8 49.2 47.9 47.9 50.3 50.8 50.2 47.2 47 A 49.1 46.7 45.8 50.9 51.9 53.8 54.5 54.5 34.1 34.8 39.0 39.1 39.0 32.6 34.3 37.8 39.2 39.5 35.4 35.2 39.9 39.1 38.4 45.6 45.4 48.7 50.2 49.4 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 48.9 52.9 59.6 64.9 66.5 49.7 53.1 59.5 65.0 68.6 50.7 54.8 64.2 70.3 78.7 46.4 50.5 58.8 65.8 69.5 54.8 56.8 59.8 62.8 65.5 40.1 43.4 47.6 53.0 56.3 40.9 44.6 47.7 51.4 56.2 39.1 42.2 47.6 54.0 56.3 50.6 54.0 58.5 58.4 59.3 1945. 1946 1947 1948 1949 68.0 74.6 83.0 88 5 88.2 71.0 76.5 84.6 89.5 88.7 82.8 82.0 88.4 92.4 93.5 72.2 78.8 88.7 94.0 90.9 67.1 71.1 76.8 81.7 83.6 57.8 63.7 76.6 85.9 84.3 60.0 65.3 78.4 88.6 85.9 56.9 62.6 74.8 83.1 82.6 60.0 66.7 76.8 83.1 87.0 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 89.5 96.2 98.1 99.0 100.0 89.9 96.0 98 0 99.0 100.0 94.6 101.1 102.2 99.4 100.0 91.4 99.0 100.1 99.7 100.0 85.9 89.8 93.6 97.7 100.0 88.3 95.3 98.4 100.1 100.0 90.9 97.5 100.3 101.3 100.0 85.1 93.1 96.5 98.9 100.0 89.0 96.8 97.5 99.0 100.0 101.2 104.2 108.2 110.7 100.4 102.2 105.2 107.7 100.1 101.3 104.7 105.6 99.5 100.9 104.0 106.4 101.7 104.2 107.1 110. 2 103.1 109.0 112.9 114.8 103.0 108.1 110.1 111.0 103.2 109.8 115.5 118.8 102.6 109.0 115.8 118.6 1956: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter - . . Fourth quarter 102.8 103.6 104.8 105. 7 101.0 101.7 102.7 103.3 99.7 100.6 101.9 103.0 99.7 100.4 101.5 102.0 103.2 103. 8 104.6 105.2 106.1 109.4 109.8 110.6 106.0 108.2 109.0 109.2 106.3 110.5 110.5 112.0 106.0 108.1 109.6 112.2 1957: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 107.0 107.8 108.9 109.4 104.2 104.9 105.7 106.2 103.8 104.7 105.0 105.3 103.0 103.6 104.5 104.8 106.1 106.6 107.4 108.4 110.6 113.2 113.9 114.2 109.1 110.0 110.9 110.7 111.9 115.9 116.5 117.5 114.2 115.3 116.3 117.4 1958: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 110.3 110.8 110.8 111.1 107.3 107.8 107.8 108.1 104.8 105.2 105.6 106.8 106.3 106.8 106.2 106.3 109.5 110.1 110.5 111.0 114.7 115.1 114.5 115.0 111.1 110.4 110.8 111.5 118.2 119.5 118.4 118.9 118.0 118.8 118.9 118.9 1929 . . 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934-. 1935. 1936 1937 1938 1939 . - - -. 1955 1956 1957 19582 . 2 .- See footnotes at end of table, p. 145. 144 TABLE D-5.—Implicit price deflators for gross national product, 1929-58—Continued [Index numbers, 1954=100] Exports and imports of goods and services 1 Government purchases of goods and services Period Exports Imports Total Federal State and local 1929 63.1 57.3 45.8 44.5 46.1 1930 1931 1932 1933. 1934 55.0 43.2 36.2 35.2 43.0 48.9 39.7 32.3 29.3 33.8 44.9 42.7 39.4 40.3 42.9 41.8 41.7 38.2 38.3 43.2 45.5 43.0 39.7 41.1 42.8 44.7 46.0 48.9 46.5 46.9 36.0 36.9 41.1 38.0 38.6 43.4 44.0 45.1 44.5 44.2 43.7 46.9 47.3 46.1 46.8 43.3 42.2 43.8 43.4 42.7 1940 1941. 1942 1943 1944.. 51.2 56.1 64.9 68.1 73.3 40.9 43.0 48.9 51.3 53.3 45.2 51.9 59.6 64.3 63.4 47.0 55.1 61.4 65.6 64.3 43.9 46.2 49.8 52.7 54.6 1945. 1946 1947 1948 1949 75.3 80.8 93.4 98.6 92.7 57.4 65.5 79.7 86.3 82.0 63.2 69.4 76.4 82.0 85.1 63.9 73.0 80.8 84.4 88.0 57.4 63.0 71.5 79.3 81.7 90.3 103.3 103.0 101.0 100.0 87.8 102.8 102.8 98.2 100.0 86.5 95.5 97.8 98.3 100.0 89.6 98.7 99.2 98.6 100.0 83.7 90.2 94.8 97.5 100.0 100.7 103.4 106.7 105.0 99.9 101. 9 102.8 99.0 103.3 108. 1 114.2 116.9 104.1 108. 8 115.6 117.9 102.2 107.2 112.4 115.6 106.4 106.6 108.7 110.4 107.7 107.0 109.1 111.2 104.7 106.2 108.2 109.4 112.2 113.4 115.4 115.8 113.1 114.4 117.4 117.4 110.9 111.9 112.8 113.8 116.2 116.7 117.3 117. 3 117.5 117.4 118.5 118.5 114.8 115.7 115.9 115.9 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 . _ .. 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 2 - 1956: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .. ... ._ ._ _ (>)1 1957' First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1958* First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter . . - 0) 0) 0) (0 ... _. 2 -.. C) 0) (0 0) 0)1 C) 0) 0)1 C) 0) 0) (0 0)1 C) 0) 0)1 C1) C) 0) 1 Separate deflators are not available for total gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, and net exports of goods and services, and for exports and imports quarterly. For explanation of conversion of estimates in current prices to those in 1954 prices, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. (The basic income and product series have been revised beginning 1946.) 2 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). TABLE D-6.—Gross national product: Receipts and expenditures by major economic groups, 1929-58 [Billions of dollars] Business Persons PerDisPersonal sonal poscon- saving able sumpperor dissonal tion ex- saving income pendi(-) tures Period International Gross Excess Gross private of re- Foreign Net Excess of net receipts transexports transfers dotained mestic or in- fers by of goods or net earnvestand 2 exports ings i investment govern(-) ment 2 services ment (-) 1929 83.1 79.0 4.2 11.5 16.2 -4.7 (2) 0.8 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 74.4 63.8 48.7 45.7 52.0 71.0 61.3 49.3 46.4 51.9 3.4 2.5 -.6 -.6 .1 8.8 5.2 2.7 2.6 4.9 10.3 5.5 .9 1.4 2.9 -1.5 -.3 1.8 1.2 2.0 (22) ( 2) (2) (2) () .7 .2 -.2 .2 .4 -0.8 7 -'.2 -.2 -.2 -.4 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 58.3 66.2 71.0 65.7 70.4 56.3 62.6 67.3 64.6 67.6 2.0 3.6 3.7 1.1 2.9 6.3 6.5 7.8 7.8 8.3 6.3 8.4 11.7 6.7 9.3 .1 -1.9 -4.0 1.2 -1.0 (22) ( 2) ( 2) (2) () -.1 -.1 .1 1.1 .9 .1 .1 -.1 -1.1 -.9 76.1 93.0 117.5 133.5 146.8 71.9 81.9 89.7 100.5 109.8 4.2 11.1 27.8 33.0 36.9 10.4 11.5 14.1 16.3 17.2 13.2 18.1 9.9 5.6 7.1 -2.8 -6.6 4.3 10.7 10.1 (22) () (22) () 1.5 1.1 -.2 -2.2 -2.1 -1.5 -1.1 .2 2.2 2.1 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 150.4 160.6 170.1 189.3 189.7 121.7 147.1 165.4 178.3 181.2 28.7 13.5 4.7 11.0 8.5 15.6 13.1 18.9 26.6 27.6 10.4 28.1 31.5 43.1 33.0 5.2 -15.1 -12.6 -16.5 -5.4 (2) 0.3 .1 1.6 3.2 -1.4 4.9 9.0 3.5 3.8 1.4 -4.6 -8.9 -1.9 -.5 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 207.7 227.5 238.7 252.5 256.9 195. 0 209.8 219.8 232.6 238.0 12.6 17.7 18.9 19.8 18.9 27.7 31.5 33.2 34.3 35.5 50.0 56.3 49.9 50.3 48.9 -22.3 -24.8 -16.6 -16.0 -13.4 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 .6 2.4 1.3 -.4 1.0 2.2 -.2 .2 2.0 .4 274.4 290.5 305.1 310.5 256.9 269.4 284.4 290.6 17.5 21.1 20.7 19.9 42.1 43.2 45.6 45.0 63.8 68.2 65.3 53.5 -21.8 -25.0 -19.7 -8.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.1 2.8 4.9 1.3 .4 -1.4 -3.5 -.1 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1955 1956 1957 1958 * . . - - . . (2) Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956* First quarter. Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 283.1 288.8 292.1 297.2 265.2 267.2 269.7 275.4 17.9 21.6 22.4 21.7 42.6 41.8 43.7 44.9 68.0 67.7 68.1 68.8 -25.4 -25.9 -24.4 -23.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.6 0.8 2.8 3.2 4.4 0.5 -1.3 -2.0 -2.8 1957' First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 300.0 305.7 308.7 306.8 279.8 282.5 288.3 287.2 20.3 23.2 20.4 19.6 44.8 45.2 46.4 45.4 65.9 67.0 66.7 61.5 -21.1 -21.8 -20.3 -16.1 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.4 5.6 6.0 4.8 3.3 -4.2 -4.2 -3.6 -1.9 1958* First quarter. Second quarter Third quarter 4 Fourth quarter _ _ _ 305.0 307.5 314.0 315.4 286.2 288.3 291.5 296. 5 . 18.8 19.2 22.5 19.0 42.4 43.9 44.5 49.2 49.6 M9.2 553.7 561.5 -7.2 -5.3 -9.2 -12.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 .2 -.5 -.5 -.5 1.0 See footnotes at end of table. 146 TABLE D-6.—Gross national product: Receipts and expenditures by major economic groups, 1929-58—Continued [Billions of dollars] (jovernmen t Period Less: Tax and Transfers, nontax interest, receipts or and subaccruals sidies 3 Net receipts Surplus or Statistical GROSS Purchases deficit (-) discrep- NATIONAL of goods on income ancy PRODUCT and and services product account 1929- 11.3 1.7 9.5 8.5 1.0 0.3 104.4 19301931 1932. 1933_ 1934_ 10.8 9.5 8.9 9.3 10.5 1.8 3.1 2.5 2.6 3.1 8.9 6.4 6.4 6.7 7.4 9.2 9.2 8.1 8.0 9.8 -.3 -2.8 -1.7 -1.4 -2.4 -1.0 .8 .8 .9 .7 91.1 76.3 58. 5 56.0 65.0 19351936193719381939. 11.4 12.9 15.4 15.0 15.4 3.4 4.1 3.1 3.8 4.2 8.0 8.9 12.3 11.2 11.2 10.0 11.8 11.7 12.8 13.3 -2.0 -3.0 .6 -1.6 -2.1 -.2 1.1 -.2 .5 1.2 72.5 82.7 90.8 85.2 91.1 19401941194219431944- 17.7 25.0 32.6 49.2 51.2 4.4 4.0 4.3 4.8 6.5 13.3 21.0 28.3 44.4 44.6 14.1 24.8 59.7 88.6 96.5 -.7 -3.8 -31.4 -44.2 -51.9 .8 .4 -.8 -1.7 2.8 100.6 125.8 159.1 192.5 211.4 1945.. 1946194719481949- 53.2 51.1 57.1 59.2 56.4 10.1 16.5 15.4 16.5 19.4 43.1 34.6 41.6 42.8 37.0 82.9 30.5 28.4 34.5 40.2 -39.7 4.1 13.3 8.2 -3.1 4.5 2.1 3.5 -.8 .5 213.6 210.7 234.3 259.4 258.1 1950.. 1951195219531954- 69.3 85.5 90.6 94.9 90.0 22.1 18.9 18.4 19.2 21.5 47.2 66.6 72.2 75.7 68.5 39.0 60.5 76.0 82.8 75.3 8.2 6.1 -3.9 -7.1 -6.7 -.7 1.2 1.4 1.3 .9 284.6 329.0 347.0 365.4 363.1 1955--. 1956--. 1957--1958 <__ 101.4 110.4 116.2 114.5 23.0 25.3 28.8 33. 3 78.4 85.1 87.4 81.2 75.6 78.8 85.7 91.2 2.9 6.3 1.7 -10.0 1.0 -.9 .7 -1.2 397.5 419.2 440.3 436.7 Seasonal!}7 adjusted a nnual rates 1956: First quarter Second quarter _ Third quarter _ Fourth quarter,. 108.4 109.3 110.4 113.7 24.3 25.3 25.4 26.3 84.1 84.1 85.0 87.4 76.8 77.2 79.5 81.8 7.2 6.9 5.4 5.5 -0.2 -1.3 -1.5 -.5 410.8 414.9 420.5 430.5 1957: First quarter Second quarter. _ Third quarter... Fourth quarter. _ 116.4 116.3 117.3 114.7 27.3 29.3 28.7 30.2 89.1 87.0 88.6 84.5 85.0 85.7 85.8 86.9 4. 1 1.3 2.8 -2.3 .9 1.5 .7 .7 436. 3 441.2 445.6 438.9 1958: First quarter Second quarter _ _ Third quarter. _Fourth quarter 4 - 110.6 111.1 116.0 120.2 31.6 33.5 34.1 33.8 79.0 77.6 81.9 86.4 88.3 89.7 92.1 94.8 -9.4 -12.2 -10.2 -8.4 -1.7 -1.1 -2.7 .9 425.8 429.0 439.0 453.0 1 Undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, capital consumption allowances, and excess of wage accruals over disbursements. 2 For 1929-45, foreign net transfers by government were negligible; therefore, for that period, net exports of 3goods and services and net foreign investment have been equated. Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by government, net interest paid by government, and subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises. * Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers, s See footnote 8, Table D-l. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see 17. S. Income and Output, a Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 147 TABLE D-7.—Personal consumption expenditures. 1929—58 [Billions of dollars] Durable goods Period Total personal consumption Toextal penditures % S a ^a 03 1 s << li •si c3 3 *"i be be To- |l tal ,2 o> s? %* 32 ¥ Nondurable goods <D_0 1 0 | 1 £ Services | x: r C 3 bC "c3 'o o> .s | "o 0 o 1 Total T3 be a£ 0 0 O T3 3 J3 O § 1 I 1 & 0 1929 79.0 9.2 3.2 4.8 1.2 37.7 19.5 9.4 1.8 7.0 32.1 11.4 4.0 2.6 14.0 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 71.0 61.3 49.3 46.4 51.9 7.2 5.5 3.6 3.5 4.2 2.2 1.6 .9 1.1 1.4 3.9 1.1 34.0 18.0 8.0 1.7 3.1 .9 28.9 14.7 6.9 1.5 2.1 .6 22.8 11.4 5.1 1.5 1.9 .5 22.3 10.9 4.6 1.5 2.2 .6 26.7 12.2 5.7 1.6 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 56.3 62.6 67.3 64.6 67.6 5. 1 6.3 6.9 5.7 6.7 1 Q 2.3 2.4 1.6 2.2 ?6 7 29.3 13 6 3.2 .8 32.8 15.2 3.6 1.0 35.2 16.4 3.1 .9 34.0 15.6 3.5 1.0 35.1 15.7 60 6.6 6.8 6.8 7.1 7.8 2.7 3.9 1.1 37.2 16.7 9.7 3.4 4.9 1.4 43.2 19.4 7.0 .7 4.7 1.6 51.3 23.7 6.6 .8 3.9 1.9 59.3 27.8 6.8 .8 3.8 2.2 65.4 30.6 7.4 8.8 11.0 13.4 14.6 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 71.9 81.9 89.7 100.5 109.8 . 6.3 5.7 4.8 5.3 7.2 29.8 26.9 22.9 20.7 21.0 11.0 10.3 9.0 7.9 7.6 3.9 2.2 12.7 3.5 .9 11.2 3.0 .6 9.3 2.8 .5 8.5 3.0 .6 8.8 1 7 7 9 1.9 9.1 2.1 9.8 2.1 9.5 2.2 10.1 21.9 23.5 25.1 25.0 25.8 76 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.0 7 9 4 3? 3.4 .9 10.3 3.7 2.0 11.1 3.6 1.9 10.7 3.8 2.0 11.0 10.8 12.3 14.5 16.7 18.7 26.9 29.0 31.5 34.7 37.7 9.3 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.9 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.9 2.1 11.4 2.4 12.3 2.7 13.1 3.4 14.7 3.7 16.3 1.8 20.8 3.0 22.9 3.6 25.2 4.4 26.0 5.0 25.9 40.4 46.4 51.4 56.9 60.0 12.4 13.8 15.6 17.6 19.3 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.9 8.4 4.0 17.5 5.1 20.8 5.5 23.0 6.0 25.4 6.1 26.2 5.4 27.4 6 0 ?9 5 6.7 30.7 7.5 31.8 8.0 31.7 64.9 21.2 9.3 70.2 23.2 10.1 75.6 25.4 10.8 81.8 27.5 11.7 86.3 29.1 12.1 6.3 28.1 6.9 29.9 7.4 32.0 8.0 34.6 7.9 37.1 124.8 59.2 23.4 8.8 33.4 131.4 62.2 24.5 9.6 35.1 138.0 66.4 24.6 10.2 36.7 142.0 69.1 24.4 10.4 38.0 92.5 30.7 13.5 99.6 32.8 14.8 106.5 35.4 15.8 111.8 37.1 16.8 8.3 39.9 8.6 43.5 9.0 46.4 9.2 48.7 73.2 34.1 16.5 84.8 40.7 18.2 93.4 45.8 18.8 98.7 48.2 20.1 9G.6 46.4 19.3 121.7 147.1 165.4 178.3 181.2 8.1 15.9 20.6 22.7 24.6 1.0 3.9 6.3 7.4 9.8 4.6 8.7 11.0 11.9 11.5 2.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 195.0 209 8 219.8 232.6 238.0 30.4 29.5 29.1 32.9 32.4 13.0 11 6 11.0 14.0 13.4 14.0 14 ? 14.1 14.7 14.8 3.4 99.8 47.4 3 7 110. 1 53 4 3.9 115. 1 55.8 4.1 118.0 56.6 4.3 119.3 57.7 1955 1956 1957 1958 4 256.9 269.4 284.4 290.6 39.6 38.4 39.9 36.8 18.3 16.6 15.6 17.4 17.1 17.3 14.0 17.1 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 ... 4.8 5.3 5.5 5.6 19.6 ?1 1 21.9 21.9 21.9 2.3 2.6 2.1 1.3 1.4 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956' First quarter Second quarter . . Third quarter Fourth quarter 265.2 267.2 269.7 275 4 38.7 37.8 37.5 39 5 16.0 17.4 15.1 17.5 15.0 17.1 16 5 17 7 5.3 129.6 61.3 24.1 5.3 130.9 61.9 24.3 5.3 131.6 62.3 24.6 5 4 133.4 63 5 ?4 8 9.2 35.0 96.9 31.8 14.4 9.5 35.2 98.6 32.3 14.7 9.6 35.1 100.6 33.1 14.9 9 P 35 ? 102.5 33 8 15 1 8.5 42.1 8.6 43.0 8.5 44.1 8.7 44.9 1957: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 279.8 282 5 288.3 287.2 40.2 39 5 40.4 39.6 17.3 17.5 16 7 17 3 17.3 17.5 17.1 17.0 5.4 135.5 64.6 24.8 10.2 35.9 104.1 34.4 15.3 5 4 137.1 66 1 ?4 3 10 ? 36 5 105.9 35 1 15 6 5.6 140.5 67.8 25.1 10.3 37.3 107.4 35.7 15.8 5.5 138.8 67.2 24.4 10.2 37.1 108.7 36.3 16.2 8.9 45.5 9 0 46.2 9.2 46.7 9.0 47.2 1958: First quarter Second quarter -. .. Third quarter 4 Fourth quarter 286.2 288.3 291.5 296.5 36.3 35.6 36.1 39.0 13.6 13.5 13.2 15.8 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 17.1 16.6 17.3 17.6 139.8 68.3 23.9 141.4 69.3 24.0 142.9 69.2 24.8 144.0 69.8 24.9 1 Quarterly data are estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. 2 Includes standard clothing issued to military personnel. 3 10.3 37.3 110.1 36.6 16.4 10.3 37.8 111.3 36.9 16.7 10.5 38.4 112.5 37.2 17.0 10.7 38.6 113.5 37.5 17.2 9.1 48.0 9.1 48.6 9.2 49.1 9.3 49.5 Includes imputed rental value of owner-occupied dwellings. * Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see 17. <S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 148 TABLE D-8.—Gross private domestic investment, 1929-58 [Billions of dollars] Total Nonfarm producers' Farm equipment gross plant and equipment and construction private domestic ConConinvest- Total i EquipTotal 4 Equipment 2 strucment structions ment tion Period Residential construction (nonfarm) Net change in Other business inventories private construc- Total Non-6 Farm farm tion * 1929 16.2 9.5 5.2 4.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 3.6 0.5 1.7 1.8 -0.2 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 10.3 5.5 .9 1.4 2.9 7.4 4.5 2.5 2.3 3.0 4 0 2.6 1.4 1.5 2. 1 34 1.9 1.0 .8 .9 7 .4 .2 .2 .3 5 .3 .1 .1 .3 2 .1 7 () 0 21 1.6 .6 .5 .6 5 — 4 -1.3 -2.6 .1 -1.6 .1 — 1 1 :\ -1.6 -2.6 -1.4 2 -.3 .3 (7) -.3 —1 3 1935 1936 1937 1938 . 1939 6.3 8.4 11.7 6.7 9.3 3.8 5.1 6.6 4.7 5.3 2.7 3.6 4.5 3.1 3.7 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.6 .5 .7 .8 .7 .7 .4 .5 .6 .5 .5 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.7 .1 .1 .2 .2 .2 .9 1.0 2.2 -.9 .4 .4 2.1 1.7 -1.0 .3 .5 -1.1 .5 .1 .1 1940 . . 1941___ . 1942 1943 1944 13.2 18.1 9.9 5.6 7.1 7.0 8.7 5.3 4.6 6.3 4.9 6.1 3.7 3.5 4.7 2.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 1.5 .8 1.1 .9 .8 1.0 .6 .8 .7 .6 .7 .2 .3 .3 .3 .3 3.0 3.5 1.7 .9 .8 .2 .2 .1 (7) 2.2 4.5 1.8 -.8 -1.0 1.9 4.0 .7 -.6 -.6 .3 .5 1.2 -.2 -.4 10.4 28.1 31.5 43.1 33.0 9.3 14.8 20.7 23.3 21.0 6.9 9.8 14.9 16.4 14.4 2.3 5.0 5.8 6.9 6.6 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.1 4.4 .7 .9 1.8 2.6 2.9 .3 .9 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.1 4.8 7.5 10.1 9.6 .1 -1.1 6.4 .4 .5 -.5 .9 4.7 1.1 -3.1 -.6 6.4 1.3 3.0 -2.2 -.5 (7) -1.8 1.7 -.9 __ 50.0 56.3 49.9 50.3 48.9 23.4 27.4 28.1 30.2 29.5 16.2 18.4 18.6 19.5 18.5 7.2 9.1 9.5 10.7 11.0 4.4 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.0 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 14.1 12.5 12.8 13.8 15.4 6.8 1.3 1.4 10.2 1.3 3.1 .4 1.4 1.7 -1.6 6.0 9.1 2.1 1.1 -2.1 .8 1.2 .9 -.6 .5 ._ 63.8 68.2 65.3 53. 5 33.4 39.4 41.1 35.0 20.6 24.8 25.5 20.4 12.8 14.6 15.6 14.6 4.1 3.8 4.0 3.9 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 18.7 17.7 17.0 17.8 5.8 1.8 5.4 1.9 2.2 1.0 2.5 -5.6 5.5 5.9 .2 -5.8 .3 -.5 .8 2 .. 1945-. . 1946 1947 1948 . _ _ . 1949 1950... ._ 1951 1952 . 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 . 1958 s - _ _. Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956: First quarter _ . Second quarter.. Third quarter. ... Fourth quarter. 68.0 67.7 68.1 68 8 37.9 39.2 39.8 40.7 23.9 24.5 25.0 25.9 14.0 14.7 14.8 14.9 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2 4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 6.9 5.4 4.9 4.4 7.4 6.2 5.3 4.6 -.5 1957: First quarter . . Second quartet. . Third quarter. ._ Fourth quarter. 65.9 67.0 66.7 61.5 41.5 41.3 41.4 40.1 26.3 25.5 25.6 24.4 15.2 15.8 15.8 15.7 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.8 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 17.2 16.5 16.9 17.6 2.1 1.1 2.2 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.3 -2.3 .6 2.0 1.3 -3.1 .5 .9 .9 .8 49.6 9 36.0 34. 7 49. 2 53. 7 9934.4 34. 8 61. 5 20.8 20.1 20.1 20.4 15.2 14.6 14.3 14.4 3.6 3.9 3.8 4.2 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 17.1 16.2 17.9 20.1 2.4 -9.5 2.4 -8.0 2.5 -5.0 2.5 (7) -9.3 -7.8 -5.4 -.7 -.2 -.2 .4 .7 1958: First quarter. Second quarter. . Third quarter ... Fourth quarter s. 9 9 9 O -!4 -.2 1 Items for nonfarm producers' plant and equipment are not comparable with those shown in Table D-30 principally because the latter exclude equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense and also investment by nonprofit organizations and professional persons. 2 Total producers' durable equipment less farm machinery and equipment, and farmers' purchases of tractors and business motor vehicles. 3 Industrial buildings, public utilities, gas- and oil-well drilling, warehouses, office and loft buildings, stores, restaurants, garages, miscellaneous nonresidential construction, and all other private construction. 4 Farm construction (residential and nonresidential) plus farm machinery and equipment, and fanners' purchases of tractors and business motor vehicles. (See footnote 2.) 5 Includes religious, educational, social and recreational, and hospital and institutional. 6 After inventory valuation adjustment. 7 Less than $50 million. 8 Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. 9 See footnote 8, Table D-l. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 489916 0—59 11 TABLE D-9.—National income by type of income, 1929—58 [Billions of dollars] Total national income 1 Period Compensation of employees 2 Business and professional income and inventory valuation adjustment Income of In- In- farm come ven- proof tory prieunin- valu- tors 3 Total corpoation rated adenter- justprises ment 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 6 1958 ... . . -. ---._ ... __ _. 87.8 75.7 59.7 42.5 40.2 49.0 57.1 64.9 73.6 . 67.6 72.8 81.6 104.7 137.7 170.3 182. 6 181.2 180.9 198.2 223.5 217.7 241.9 279.3 292.2 305. 6 301.8 _ . _ .. 330.2 349.4 364.0 359.6 51.1 46.8 39.7 31.1 29.5 34. 3 37.3 42.9 47.9 45.0 48.1 52.1 64.8 85.3 109.6 121.3 123.2 117.7 128.8 141.0 140.8 154.2 180.3 195.0 208.8 207.6 223.9 241.8 254. 6 253.8 8.8 7.4 5.6 3.4 3.2 4.6 5.4 6.5 7.1 6 8 7.3 8.4 10.9 13.9 16.8 18.0 19.0 21.3 19.9 22.4 22.7 23.5 26.0 26.9 27.4 27.8 30.4 30.8 31.4 31.0 0.1 8.6 .8 6.7 .6 5.0 3.1 .3 3.7 -.5 4.6 -.1 5.4 (5) 6.6 -.1 7.1 f») .2 6.6 7.5 -.2 8.5 (•) 11.5 -.6 14.3 -.4 17.0 -.2 18.1 -.1 19.1 -.1 23.0 -1.7 21.4 -1.5 22.8 -.4 22.2 .5 24.6 -1.1 26.3 -.3 26.7 .2 27.6 -.2 5 27.8 () 2 30.6 31.3 -.5 31.7 -.3 31.0 (5) 6.0 4.1 3.2 1.9 2.4 2.4 5.0 4.0 5.6 4.3 4.3 4.6 6.5 10.0 11.4 11.5 11.8 15.3 15.5 17.8 12.9 14.0 16.3 15.3 13.3 12.7 11.8 11.6 11.6 13.2 Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Rental income of persons Net inInven- terest Cortory porate Total profits valuation before adtaxes 4 justment 5.4 10.1 6.6 4.8 3.8 1.6 2.7 -2.0 2.0 -2.0 1.7 1.1 2.9 1.7 5.0 1.8 6.2 2.1 2.6 4.3 5.7 2.7 9.1 2.9 3.5 14.5 4.5 19.7 5.1 23.8 5.4 23.0 5.6 18.4 6.2 17.3 6.5 23.6 7.3 30.8 8.3 28.2 9.0 35.7 9.4 41.0 10.2 37.7 10.5 37.3 10.9 33.7 10.7 43.1 10.9 42.9 11.8 41.9 12.2 736.2 9.6 3.3 0 -3.0 .2 1.7 3.1 5.7 6.2 3.3 6.4 9.3 17.0 20.9 24.6 23.3 19.0 22.6 29.5 33.0 26.4 40.6 42.2 36.7 38.3 34.1 44.9 45.5 43.4 736.4 0.5 3.3 2.4 1.0 -2.1 -.6 -.2 -.7 (5) 1.0 -.7 -.2 -2.5 -1.2 -.8 -.3 -.6 -5.3 -5.9 -2.2 1.9 -5.0 -1.2 1.0 -1.0 -.3 -1.7 -2.6 -1.5 7 -.2 6.4 6.0 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.5 6.3 7.1 8.2 9.1 10.4 11.3 12.6 13.2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956- First quarter Second quarter. . .. Third quarter Fourth quarter 1957: First quarter . Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1958: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 6 Fourth quarter . 342.2 346.2 350.8 357.9 361.5 364.1 368.7 361.5 350.6 352.4 363.1 372.1 235.3 240.6 243.0 248.1 251.6 254.9 257.3 254 8 250.9 250.7 255.3 258.4 30.7 30.9 30.8 30.9 31.1 31.4 31.7 31.3 30.6 30.7 31.1 31.8 31.1 -0.4 31.6 -.7 31.0 -.2 31.5 -.6 31.4 -.3 31.7 -.3 31.8 -.1 31.8 -.5 30.7 30.7 «2 30.9 31.9 -.2 1 11.3 11.3 11.9 12.0 11.5 11.6 11.8 11.5 12.6 13.4 13.3 13.3 10.7 43.3 10.7 41.6 10.9 42.8 11.2 44.0 11.4 43.7 11.7 42.0 12.0 43.1 12.2 38.8 12.1 31.3 12.1 32.5 12.2 38.0 12.3 743.0 46.2 44.8 44.3 46.7 46.1 43.5 44.2 39.9 31.7 32.0 37.9 744.0 -2.8 -3.2 -1.5 -2.7 -2.4 -1.5 -1.1 -1.1 -.3 .5 .2 7-1.0 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 National income is the total net income earned in production. It differs from gross national product mainly in that it excludes depreciation charges and other allowances for business and institutional consumption of durable capital goods, and indirect business taxes. See Table D-10. 2 Wages and salaries and supplements to wages and salaries (employer contributions for social insurance; employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; directors' fees; pay of the military reserve; and a few other minor items). 3 Excludes income resulting from net reductions of farm inventories and gives credit in computing income to net additions to farm inventories during the period. Data for 1929-45 differ from those shown in Table D-64 because of revisions by the Department of Agriculture not yet incorporated into the national income accounts. 4 See Table D-56 for corporate tax liability (Federal and State income and excess profits taxes) and corporate profits after taxes. 5 Less than $50 million. 6 Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. 7 Provisional. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 150 TABLE D-10.—Relation of gross national product and national income, 1929-58 [Billions of dollars] Less: Capital consumption allowances Period Plus: Less: Subsidies Equals less Gross Net current Indirect business nana- surplus Busitax tional ness j tional prodDepreof govtransernuct Total ciation I Other product fer State paycharges ment and ments enter- Total Federal local prises Equals: NaStatisti- tional cal income discrepancy 1929 104.4 8.6 7.7 0.9 95.8 -0.1 7.0 1.2 5.8 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 91.1 76.3 58.5 56.0 65. 0 8.5 8.2 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.7 7.6 7.0 6.7 6.6 .8 .6 .6 .5 .5 82.6 68 1 50.9 48 8 57.9 -.1 ( 22 ) () (2) .3 7.2 6.9 6.8 7.1 7.8 1.0 .9 .9 1.6 2.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.4 5.6 1935 1936.. 1937 1938 1939 72.5 82.7 90.8 85.2 91.1 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.8 6.7 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.1 .6 .8 .8 .8 .7 65.3 75.2 83.0 77.4 83.3 .4 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.2 9.4 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 6.0 6.4 6.8 6.9 7.0 .6 .6 .6 .4 .5 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 100.6 125. 8 159. 1 192. 5 211.4 8.1 9.0 10.2 10.9 12.0 7.3 8.1 9.2 9.9 10.8 .8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 92.5 116.8 149.0 181.6 199.4 .4 .1 .2 .2 10.0 11.3 11.8 12.7 14.1 2.6 3.6 4.0 4.9 6.2 7.4 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.0 1945 1946 1947. 1948 1949 213 6 210.7 234.3 259.4 258. 1 12 5 10.7 13.0 15.5 17.3 11.2 9.0 11.1 13.1 15.1 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.2 201.0 200.0 221.3 244.0 240.8 .8 -.2 15.5 17.3 18.6 20.4 21.6 7. 1 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.4 9.4 10.8 12.3 13.5 '.7 .8 4.5 2.1 3.5 -.8 f, 181.2 180. 9 198.2 223. 5 217.7 284.6 329.0 347.0 365. 4 363.1 19.1 22.0 24.0 26.5 28.8 16.5 18.8 20.9 23. 1 25.2 2.6 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.6 265.5 307.0 323.0 338. 9 334.3 .2 .2 -.2 -.4 -.2 23.7 25.6 28.1 30.2 30.2 9.0 9.5 10.5 11.2 10.1 14.7 16. 1 17.6 19.0 20.1 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 ~L2 1.4 1.3 .9 241. 9 279.3 292. 2 305. 6 301.8 397. 5 419.2 440. 3 436. 7 32.0 34.7 37.7 39.6 27.9 30.8 33.7 35.9 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 365. 5 384. 5 402. 6 397.1 32.9 1.0 35. 6 1.3| 37.6 1.5 38.6 11.0 11.6 12.2 11.9 21.8 24.0 25.4 26.7 1.0 1.5 1.5 — .9 .7 1.6 1.6 -1.2 330. 2 349.4 364. 0 359.6 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 .- 1955 1956 1957 19583 (2) .1 .2 .5 7 -:' -.2 (2) 0.3 87.8 hi•', 75 7 59 7 42.5 40.2 49.0 2 LI —.£ L2 57.1 64.9 73.6 67.6 72.8 .4 .8 .4 .5 .5 -.8 .5 -1.7 .5 2.8 81.6 104.7 137.7 170.3 182.6 0. f '.( .5 .6 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956: First quarter Second quarter .. Third quarter Fourth quarter .. 410.8 33.7 414.9 34.3 420. 5, 35.0 430.5 35.7 ( 44 ) () (4) (4) (44 ) () ( 44 ) () 377.1 380.6 385.5 394.8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2 34.5 35.3 35.8 37.0 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.4 23.4 23.9 24. 3 24. 6J 1.5 -.2 1.5 -1.3 1.5 -1.5 1.5 -.5 342.2 346.2 350.8 357.9 1957: First quarter Second quarter .. Third quarter Fourth quarter _. 436.3 441.2 445.6 438.9 36.6 37.5 38.1 38.5 (44 ) () ( 44) () (44) (4) ( 4) () 399.7 403.7 407.5 400.4 1.4 1.4 1.3J 1.2 37.1 37.8 37.9 37.7 12. 1 12.5 12.3 12.0 25.0 25.3 25.6 25.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 .9 1.5 .7 .7 361.5 364.1 368.7 361.5 1958: First quarter Second quarter.. Third quarter 3 ' Fourth quarter _ 425.8 429.0 439.0 453.0 38.9 39.3 39.7 40.4 f 44) () ( 44 ) () ( 44 ) () (4) (>) 386. 9' 389.7 399.3 412.6 1.61 l.s! 1.5 1.5 38.0 38.3 38.6 39.5 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.9 25.9 26.5 26.9 27.6 1.6 -1.7 1.6 -1.1 1.6 -2.7 .9 1.6 350.6 352.4 363.1 372.1 1 2 3 4 Accidental damage to fixed capital and capital outlays charged to current account. Less than $50 million. Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. Not available. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). TABLE D—11.—Relation of national income and personal income, 1929—58 [Billions of dollars] Plus: Less: CorpoExcess rate of profits Contri- wage National and inbutions acincome venfor tory social cruals over valu- insurdisation ance burseadjustments ment Period Government transfer payments to persons Net interest paid by government Equals: Dividends Business transfer payments Personal income _ 87.8 10.1 0.2 0.9 1.0 5.8 0.6 85.8 1930 1931 .1932 1933 1934 ._ 75.7 59.7 42.5 40.2 49.0 6.6 1.6 -2.0 -2.0 1.1 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 1.0 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 5.5 4.1 2.6 2.1 2.6 .5 .6 .7 .7 .6 76.9 65.7 50.1 47.2 53.6 1935 1936 .1937 1938 1939 57.1 64.9 73.6 67.6 72.8 2.9 5.0 6.2 4.3 5.7 .3 .6 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.9 1.9 2.4 2.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.9 4.5 4.7 3.2 3.8 .6 .6 .6 .4 .5 60.2 68.5 73.9 68.6 72.9 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 81.6 104.7 137.7 170.3 182.6 9.1 14.5 19.7 23.8 23.0 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.5 5.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.8 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.7 .4 .5 .5 .5 .5 78.7 96.3 123. 5 151.4 165.7 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 181.2 180.9 198.2 223.5 217.7 18.4 17.3 23.6 30.8 28.2 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.2 5.7 5.6 10.9 11.1 10.5 11.6 3.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 5.8 6.5 7.2 7.5 .5 .6 .7 .7 .8 171.2 179.3 191.6 210.4 208.3 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 241.9 279.3 292.2 305.6 301.8 35.7 41.0 37.7 37.3 33.7 6.9 8.2 8.6 8.7 9.7 14.3 11.6 12.0 12.9 15.0 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.4 9.2 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.8 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 228.5 256.7 273.1 288.3 289.8 43.1 42.9 41.9 36. 2 11.0 12.3 14.2 14.4 16.0 17.1 19.9 24.4 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.2 11.2 12.0 12.4 12.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 310.2 330.5 347.9 353.4 1929 1955 1956 1957 1958 i . . -- 330.2 349.4 364.0 359.6 2 0.2 2 .1 -.1 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 342.2 346.2 350.8 357.9 43.3 41.6 42.8 44.0 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.7 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.6 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9 11.7 12.0 12.2 11.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 .5 322.3 328.7 332.3 338.1 1957: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 361.5 364.1 368.7 361.5 43.7 42.0 43.1 38.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.2 18.4 19.9 20.0 21.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.0 .6 .6 .6 1.6 342.3 348.4 351.8 349.7 1958: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1 Fourth quarter ... 350.6 352.4 363.1 372.1 31.3 32.5 38.0 2 43.0 14.2 14.2 14.7 14.6 22.5 24.6 25.2 24.9 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 12.5 12.4 12.5 11.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 347.3 349.8 357.5 359.1 1 2 .8 .8 -1.5 Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. Provisional. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 152 TABLE D-12.—Sources of personal income, 1920—58 [Billions of dollars] Lahor Proprietors' Less: income 2 income Per(wage and sonal NonPerRental salary TransTotal contriincome Divi- sonal fer pay- butions agriculpersonal disbursetural Busiof dends interest ments income ments for persona]4 and persons income and other Farms ness income social profeslabor insursional income) l ance Period 1929 85.8 51.0 6.0 8.8 5.4 5.8 7.4 1.5 0.1 77.7 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 76.9 65.7 50.1 47.2 53.6 46.7 39.6 30.9 29.4 34.1 4.1 3.2 1.9 2.4 2.4 7.4 5.6 3.4 3.2 4.6 4.8 3.8 2.7 2.0 1.7 5.5 4.1 2.6 2.1 2.6 6.9 6.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 1.5 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 70.8 60.9 46.9 43.6 49.8 60.2 68 5 73.9 68.6 72.9 37.2 42.5 46.7 43.6 46.6 5.0 4.0 5.6 4.3 4.3 5.4 6.5 7.1 6.8 7.3 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.9 4.5 4.7 3.2 3.8 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8 2.4 3.5 2.4 2.8 3.0 .2 .2 .6 .6 .6 53.9 63.2 67.0 62.8 67.1 78.7 96.3 123. 5 151. 4 165.7 50.5 62.8 83.0 106. 7 118.5 4.6 6.5 10.0 11.4 11.5 8.4 10.9 13.9 16.8 18.0 2.9 3.5 4.5 5.1 5.4 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.6 .7 .8 1.2 1.8 2.2 72.6 88.0 111.5 137.6 151. 6 171.2 179.3 191.6 210.4 208.3 119.4 113.8 125. 2 137.9 137.4 11.8 15.3 15.5 17.8 12.9 19.0 21.3 19.9 22.4 22.7 5.6 6.2 6.5 7.3 8.3 4.7 5.8 6.5 7.2 7.5 6.9 7.6 8.2 8.7 9.4 6.2 11.4 11.8 11.3 12.4 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 156. 8 161.2 172.8 189.2 192.1 228. 5 256.7 273.1 288. 3 289.8 150. 2 175. 5 190.2 204. 1 202.5 14.0 16.3 15.3 13.3 12.7 23.5 26.0 26.9 27.4 27.8 9.0 9.4 10.2 10.5 10.9 9.2 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.8 10.3 11.2 12.1 13.4 14.6 15.1 12.6 13.2 14.3 16.2 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.9 4.6 211.3 237.0 254.3 271. 5 273.8 310. 2 330. 5 347.9 353. 4 218.0 235.2 247.1 246.2 11.8 11.6 11.6 13.2 30.4 30.8 31.4 31.0 10.7 10.9 11.8 12.2 11.2 12.0 12.4 12.3 15.8 17.0 18.8 19.4 17.5 18.6 21.5 25.9 5.2 5.7 6.6 6. 7 295. 0 315. 4 332.7 336. (> -.. . 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 . 1945 1946 1947. 1948 1949 .. .. .. . 1950 1951.. 1952 1953 1954 . . . 1955 1956 1957_ 19585 _.. Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956: First quarter. . Second quarter. Third quarter _ _ Fourth quarter. 322.3 328.7 332.3 338.1 229. 0 234.1 236.2 241.2 11.3 11.3 11.9 12.0 30.7 30.9 30.8 30.9 10.7 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.0 12.2 11.8 16.5 ! 16.9 17.2 17.6 | 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.1 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.9 307. 6 313.9 316.9 322. 5 First quarter _ _ _ Second quarter. Third quarter.. Fourth quarter. 342.3 348.4 351.8 349.7 244.2 247.3 249.6 247.2 11.5 11.6 11.8 11.5 31.1 31.4 31.7 31.3 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.0 18.2 : 18.7 19.0 i 19. 1 | 20.0 21.5 21.6 22. 9 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.6 327.2 333. 2 336.3 334. 6 First quarter. _. Second quarter. Third quarter... Fourth quarter 5. 347.3 349.8 357. 5 359. 1 242.6 242.4 249.0 250. 6 12.6 13.4 13.3 13.3 30.6 30.7 31.1 31.8 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.4 12.5 11.8 19.3 19.3 i 19. 4 19.5 I 24.2 26.2 26. 8 26.5 6.7 i 6.7 i 6.9 6.8 i 331.0 332. 8 340. 7 342. 3 1957: 1958: 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees in Table D-9 in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and excludes the excess of 2wage accruals over wage disbursements. Excludes income resulting from net reductions of inventories and gives credit in computing income to 3net additions to inventories during the period. Data for 1929-45 differ from those in Table D-64 because of revisions by the Department of Agriculture not4 yet incorporated into the national income accounts. X on agricultural income is personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations. s Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. XOTE.—Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement lo the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). '53 TABLE D-13.—Disposition of personal income, 1929-58 Personal income Period Less: Personal taxes i Less: Equals: Personal DisposEquals: conable Personal personal sumption saving income expenditures Saving as percent of disposable personal income (percent)2 Billions of dollars 1929 85.8 2.6 83.1 79.0 4.2 5.0 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 76.9 65.7 50.1 47.2 53.6 2.5 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 74.4 63.8 48.7 45.7 52.0 71.0 61.3 49.3 46.4 51.9 3.4 2.5 -.6 -.6 .1 4.6 3.9 -1.3 -1.4 .2 60.2 68.5 73.9 68.6 72.9 1.9 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.4 58.3 66.2 71.0 65.7 70.4 56.3 62.6 67.3 64.6 67.6 2.0 3.6 3.7 1.1 2.9 3.5 5.4 5.3 1.6 4.1 78.7 96.3 123.5 151.4 165.7 2.6 3.3 6.0 17.8 18.9 76.1 93.0 117.5 133.5 146.8 71.9 81.9 89.7 100.5 109.8 4.2 11.1 27.8 33.0 36.9 5.5 11.9 23.6 24.7 25.2 1945 1946 1947 1948 _ 1949 171.2 179.3 191.6 210.4 208.3 20.9 18.7 21.5 21.1 18.7 150.4 160.6 170.1 189.3 189.7 121.7 147.1 165. 4 178. 3 181.2 28.7 13.5 4.7 11.0 8.5 19.1 8.4 2.8 5.8 4.5 1950 1951 .1952 1953 .. 1954 228.5 256. 7 273.1 288.3 289.8 20.8 29.2 34.4 35.8 32.9 207.7 227.5 238.7 252.5 256.9 195. 0 209.8 219.8 232.6 238.0 12.6 17.7 18.9 19.8 18.9 6.1 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.3 310.2 330. 5 347.9 353. 4 35.7 40.1 42.7 43.0 274.4 290.5 305.1 310.5 256. 9 269.4 284.4 290.6 17.5 21.1 20.7 19.9 6.4 7.2 6.8 6.4 .__ 1935 1936 1937 1938. 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 - - -.. - . ... -- .. 1955 1956 1957 .1958 a . Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956: First quarter . Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 322.3 328. 7 332. 3 338.1 39.2 39.9 40.2 40.9 283.1 288.8 292. 1 297. 2 265.2 267. 2 269. 7 275.4 17.9 21.6 22. 4 21.7 6.3 7.5 7. 7 7.3 1957: First quarter Second quarter - _ Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . _ . . 342.3 348.4 351.8 349.7 42.3 42.7 43.1 43.0 300.0 305. 7 308. 7 306. 8 279.8 282. 5 288.3 287. 2 20.3 23.2 20.4 19.6 6.8 7.6 6.6 6.4 347.3 349.8 357.5 359. 1 42.3 42.3 43.5 43.7 305. 0 307.5 314.0 315.4 286. 2 288.3 291. 5 296.5 18.8 19.2 22.5 19.0 6.2 6.2 7.2 6.0 1958: First quarter Second quarter. _ ._ Third quarter 3 Fourth quarter . - . .. 1 Includes also such items as fines, penalties, and donations. 2 Annual percentages are based on data in millions of dollars, and may therefore differ slightly from percentages computed on the basis of figures shown in this table. 3 Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 154 TABLE D-14.— Total and per capita disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures, in current and 1958 prices, 1929-58 Total disposable Per capita dispersonal income posable personal (billions of income (dollars) dollars) Period Total personal consumption expenditures (billions of dollars) Per capita personal consumption expenditures (dollars) Population (thousands)2 Current 1958 Current 1958 Current 1958 Current 1958 prices prices 1 prices prices 1 prices prices 1 prices prices * 1929 .. 83.1 139.9 682 1,148 79.0 132.9 648 1,091 121, 875 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 74.4 63.8 48.7 45.7 52.0 128.5 121.1 102.9 102.1 112.0 604 514 389 364 411 1,043 975 822 812 886 7-1.0 61.3 49.3 46.4 51.9 122.6 116.4 104.2 103.6 111.8 576 494 395 369 410 995 937 835 824 884 123, 188 124, 149 124, 949 125, 690 126, 485 1935 1936 1937 . 1938 1939 58.3 66.2 71.0 65.7 70.4 122.5 137.7 142.6 134.3 146.5 458 517 551 505 538 962 1,075 1,106 1, 033 1,119 56.3 62.6 67.3 64.6 67.6 118.3 130.2 135.1 132.2 140.5 442 488 522 497 516 929 1,015 1,048 1,016 1,073 127, 362 128, 181 128, 961 129, 969 131, 028 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 76.1 93.0 117.5 133.5 146.8 156.9 182.3 208.0 222.6 241.0 576 697 871 977 1,060 1,188 1,367 1,542 1,628 1,741 71.9 81.9 89.7 100.5 109.8 148.2 160.5 158.8 167.6 180.4 544 614 665 735 794 1,122 1,204 1,177 1,225 1,304 132, 122 133, 402 134, 860 136, 739 138, 397 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 150.4 160.6 170.1 189.3 189.7 241.3 237.5 219.8 227.3 229.9 1, 075 1,136 1,180 1,291 1,271 1,726 1,680 1,525 1,550 1,541 121.7 147.1 165.4 178.3 181.2 195.3 217.6 213.7 214.1 219.6 870 ,040 ,148 ,216 ,214 1,396 1, 538 1,483 1,460 1,472 139, 928 141, 389 144, 126 146, 631 149, 188 1950 1951 1962 1953 1954 207.7 227.5 238. 7 252.5 256. 9 249.3 252.8 259.5 272.4 276.2 1,369 1,474 1,520 1,582 1, 582 1,643 1, 638 1,652 1,707 1,701 195.0 209.8 219.8 232. 6 238.0 234. 1 233.1 238.9 251. 0 255.9 ,286 ,359 ,400 ,457 ,466 1,544 1,510 1,522 1,572 1,576 151, 683 154, 360 157, 028 159, 636 162, 417 274.4 290.5 305.1 310 5 295.7 308.3 313.3 310.5 1,661 1,727 1,782 1,784 1,790 1, 833 1,830 1,784 256.9 269.4 284.4 290.6 276.9 286.0 292.0 290.6 .555 ,602 ,661 ,670 1,676 1,701 1, 705 1,670 165, 270 168, 176 171, 196 174, 064 _ 1955 1956 1957 3 1958 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter. __ 283.1 288.8 292.1 297.2 304.7 308. 5 308.1 311.2 1,694 1,721 1, 733 1,754 1,823 1,839 1,828 1,837 265.2 267.2 269.7 275.4 285.5 285.5 284. 5 288.4 1,587 1,592 1,600 1,626 1,708 1,701 1,688 1,703 167, 158 167, 828 168,600 169, 424 1957: First quarter Second quarter. __ Third quarter Fourth quarter. __ 300.0 305. 7 308.7 306.8 312.2 315.2 314.7 311.8 1,763 1,789 1,799 1,780 1,835 1,844 1,834 1,809 279.8 282.5 288.3 287.2 291.2 291.2 293.9 291.9 1,644 1,654 1,680 1,666 1,711 1, 705 1,713 1,693 170, 151 170, 839 171, 612 172,393 1958: First quarter Second quarter. ._ Third quarter 3 Fourth quarter .. 305.0 307.5 314.0 315. 4 306.8 306.9 313.1 314. 5 1,762 1,770 1,800 1,800 1,773 1,766 1,795 1,795 286.2 288.3 291. 5 296.5 287.9 287.7 290.6 295.6 1,654 1,660 1,671 1,692 1,664 1,657 1.666 1,687 173, 054 173, 705 174, 460 175, 253 1 Dollar estimates in current prices divided by the consumer price index on a 1958 base (using 11-month average). Personal consumption expenditures in this table therefore differ from the data in Table D-2. 2 Population of the continental United States including armed forces overseas. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period. 3 Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Annual figures for total income and expenditures in 1958 prices and for per capita income and expenditures in current prices are computed from data in millions of dollars. Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of Labor, and Council of Economic Advisers. '55 l TABLE D-15.—Financial saving by individuals., 1939-58 [Billions of dollars] Currency Total and bank deposits2 Period Securities Savings and loan U.S. Other Corassocia- Total sav- gov- porate ings ern- and tion honds ment 3 other shares 0.05 1.85 2.14 2.49 2.85 3.21 .05 .08 .12 .20 .60 .85 1.01 -.20 1.30 .69 -.11 1.86 .82 .27 2.55 .10 -2.96 .58 3.92 -.38 -1.03 .14 1.38 4.96 -.05 6.85 4.23 -1.16 .96 -2.40 (9) 2.01 -.28 .69 1.60 .40 1.12 1.46 .73 .20 3.46 3.42 3.64 3.75 3.71 .93 .30 .30 .40 .60 5.14 3.55 3.49 3.57 2.34 .22 3.60 4.62 4.72 4.12 .48 1.48 2.32 -2.34 2.81 -.76 .43 2.41 2.64 .32 .71 1.67 2.07 1.32 .57 3.92 4.06 4.88 5.04 5.38 .90 1.36 1.51 1.84 1.93 1.09 4.24 4.40 3.24 2.63 7.29 6.59 6.52 7.30 9.01 3.64 .22 .99 -.30 4.36 .60 3.65 .40 .86 .96 3.29 2.98 3. 93 2.73 2.27 3.99 5.49 5.64 5.13 2.08 2.41 2.68 3.09 11.93 3.49 10.38 3.09 8.25 .60 6.09 3.14 -.75 -.07 2.58 1.08 1.52 .67 1.57 2.89 .16 2.35 .88 -.08 .39 .83 -.08 .30 .56 -.10 -.06 .37 .56 .62 .72 1.28 1.34 1.56 1.46 .60 .60 .60 .60 .77 1.58 .94 .21 2.48 -.53 -.52 2.75 1.43 -.08 2.76 .68 -.44 .28 2.39 1.56 .15 .72 2.20 2.58 .99 1.62 .49 1.71 2.43 1.02 2.16 .41 1.87 .12 1.87 .08 1.15 1.37 .77 .70 1.22 1.15 1.52 1.25 .67 .67 .67 .67 .73 1.44 .76 .15 1.93 -.93 -.34 .05 2.19 1.50 .75 -.02 2.20 .24 1.92 1.25 40 1.14 5.14 .96 -.01 -.28 1.32 1.82 -.77 -.19 -.73 .67 -1.42 -.16 -1.80 1.25 .15 .54 1.23 1.15 1.34 .65 -.25 .65 .72 .65 .19 .01 1.51 -1.77 2.15 .31 1. 05 2.79 .09 -1.53 3.04 4.23 10.51 29.28 38.69 41.39 2.93 4.84 10.95 16.20 17.57 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 37. 33 19.01 14.04 10.61 6.45 2.07 2.69 -1.78 2.09 -1.38 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 .93 10.87 12. 95 10.73 9.19 3.74 6.00 7.14 4.93 5.41 1.54 2.07 3.05 3.64 4.45 .25 -.07 .90 .43 -.47 -.77 3.44 .09 1.28 3.39 .20 1.88 .22 .60 -.95 6.93 13.62 16.62 3.81 4.87 5.65 4.79 4.83 4.80 6.28 .26 5.16 -.09 6.02 -1.91 1956: First quarter Second quarter. _ Third quarter. .. Fourth quarter. 5.04 2.25 3.21 3.12 -.14 .44 1.62 2.94 1957: First quarter Second quarter. . Third quarter. .. Fourth quarter . 5.52 2.87 4.86 3.36 1958: First quarter 4.55 Second quarter. . 1.20 Third quarter. . - 5.22 . insurance and Mort- Con- Securpen- gage sumer7 ities 9 sion debts debt loans reserves5 1.72 4.24 1955 1956 1957 vate ininsur- sured ance penre- sion serves4 funds Less: Increase in debt -.44 -.50 .01 -.26 -.68 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 _ Govern- Pri- Non- ment 0.04 -0.83 .20 .36 .25 .55 .81 0.66 -0.87 -0.62 -.43 .86 -.84 2.64 2.75 .38 10.33 7.98 2.34 14.14 11.14 3.25 15.71 11.80 4.59 1.06 9.93 1.18 -1.43 1.20 2.42 1.19 3.12 1.51 2.39 -.58 -.46 -.49 -.38 1.30 0.50 0.81 -0. 23 1 Individuals' saving, in addition to personal holdings, covers saving of unincorporated business, trust funds, and nonprofit institutions in the forms specified. 2 Includes currency, demand deposits, time and savings deposits, shares and deposits in credit unions, and the postal savings system. 3 Includes armed forces leave bonds and other U. S. Government bonds (except savings bonds) and all securities issued by State and local governments. 4 Includes insured pension reserves. 5 Includes Social Security funds, State and local retirement systems, etc. 6 Mortgage debt to institutions on one- to four-family nonfarm dwellings. 7 Consumer debt owed to corporations, largely attributable to purchases of automobiles and other dur able consumer goods, although including some debt arising from purchases of consumption goods. Policy loans on Government and private life insurance have been deducted from those items of saving. * Change in bank loans made for the purpose of purchasing or carrying securities. 9 Less than $5 million. NOTE.—In addition to the concept of saving shown above, there are other concepts of individuals' saving, with varying degrees of coverage, currently in use. The series with the most complete coverage, the personal saving estimates of the Department of Commerce, is derived as the difference between personal income and expenditures. Conceptually, Commerce saving includes the following items not included in Securities and Exchange Commission saving: Housing and farm and unincorporated business investment in inventories and plant and equipment, net of depreciation and increase in debt. Government insurance is excluded from the Commerce saving series. For a reconciliation of the two series, see Securities and Exchange Commission Statistical Bulletin, October 1958. Revisions for 1957-58 in the consumer credit statistics of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System have not yet been incorporated into these estimates. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 156 TABLE D-16.—Sources and uses of gross saving, 1929—58 [Billions of dollars] Gross private saving and government surplus or deficit on income and product transactions Private saving Period Total Total Personal saving Government surplus or deficit (-) Gross busi- Total ness saving Federal State and local Gross investment Statistical Gross disprivate Net for- crepeign inTotal domesancy tic in- vest-1 vest- ment ment 1929 16.7 15.7 4.2 11.5 1.0 1.2 -0.1 17.0 16.2 0.8 0.3 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 11.9 4.9 .3 .6 2.6 12.2 7.7 2.0 1.9 5.0 3.4 2.5 -.6 -.6 .1 8.8 5.2 2.7 2.6 4.9 -.3 -2.8 -1.7 -1.4 -2.4 .3 -2.1 -1.5 -1.3 -2.9 -.5 -.7 _ 2 (2) .5 11.0 5.7 1.1 1.5 3.3 10.3 5.5 .9 1.4 2.9 !2 .2 .2 .4 -1.0 .8 .8 .9 .7 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 6.4 7.2 12.1 7.3 9.0 8.4 10.1 11.5 8.9 11.2 2.0 3.6 3.7 1.1 2.9 6.3 6.5 7.8 7.8 8.3 -2.0 -3.0 .6 -1.6 -2.1 -2.6 -3.5 -.2 -2.0 -2.2 .6 .5 .7 .4 .1 6.2 8.3 11.8 7.8 10.2 6.3 8.4 11.7 6.7 9.3 -.1 -.1 .1 1.1 .9 -.2 1.1 -.2 .5 1.2 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 13.9 18.8 10.5 5.1 2.3 14.6 22.6 41.9 49.3 54.2 4.2 11.1 27.8 33.0 36.9 10.4 -.7 -1.4 11.5 -3.8 -5.1 14. 1 -31.4 -33.2 16.3 -44.2 -46.7 17.2 -51.9 -54.6 .7 1.3 1.8 2.5 2.7 14.7 19.2 9.7 3.4 5.0 13.2 18.1 9.9 5.6 7.1 1.5 1.1 -.2 -2.2 -2.1 .8 .4 -.8 — 1. 7 2.8 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 4.5 30.6 36.8 45.9 33.0 44.3 26.5 23.6 37.6 36.1 28.7 13.5 4.7 11.0 8.5 15.6 -39.7 -42.3 4.1 2.2 13.1 13.3 18.9 12.2 26.6 8.2 8.0 27.6 -3.1 -2.5 2.6 1.9 1.1 .3 -.6 9.0 32.7 40.4 45.0 33.5 10.4 28.1 31.5 43. 1 33.0 -1.4 4.6 8.9 1.9 .5 4.5 2.1 3.5 -.8 .5 1950. _ - 1951 1952 1953 1954 48.5 55.3 48.3 47.0 47.6 40.3 49.2 52.2 54.1 54.4 12.6 17.7 18.9 19.8 18.9 27.7 31.5 33.2 34.3 35.5 8.2 6.1 -3.9 -7.1 -6.7 9.2 6.4 -3.9 -7.4 -5.8 -1.0 -.3 .1 .3 -.9 47.8 56.6 49.7 48.3 48.5 50.0 56.3 49.9 50.3 48.9 -2.2 .2 -.2 -2.0 -.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 .9 1955 1956. 1957 19583 62.4 70.5 68.0 54.9 59.6 64.2 66.3 64.9 17.5 21.1 20.7 19.9 2.9 42.1 6.3 43.2 45.6 1.7 45.0 -10.0 3.8 6.8 2.9 -8.1 -1.0 -.6 -1.2 -1.9 63.4 69.6 68.8 53.6 63.8 68.2 65.3 53.5 -.4 1.4 3.5 .1 1.0 -.9 .7 -1.2 . Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956: First quarter Second quarter __ Third quarter Fourth quarter.. 67.7 70.3 71.6 72.0 60.5 63.4 66.2 66.5 17.9 21.6 22.4 21.7 42.6 41.8 43.7 44.9 7.2 6.9 5.4 5.5 7.7 7.3 5.8 6.5 -.5 -.4 -.4 -1.0 67.5 69.0 70.0 71.6 68.0 67.7 68.1 68.8 — .5 1.3 2.0 2.8 -.2 -1.3 -1.5 -.5 1957: First quarter Second quarter __ Third quarter Fourth quarter _ _ 69.2 69.7 69.6 62.6 65.1 68.4 66.8 64.9 20.3 23.2 20.4 19.6 44.8 45.2 46.4 45.4 4.1 1.3 2.8 -2.3 5.5 2.6 3.4 -.2 -1.4 -1.3 -.6 -2.1 70.1 71.2 70.3 63.4 65.9 67.0 66.7 61.5 4.2 4.2 3.6 1.9 .9 1.5 1958: First quarter Second quarter _ _ Third quarter ... Fourth quarter ' 51.8 50.9 57.1 59.8 61.2 63.1 67.0 68.2 18.8 19.2 22.5 19.0 42.4 -9.4 43.9 -12.2 44.5 -10.2 49.2 -8.4 -6.6 -9.9 -8.6 -7.2 -2.7 -2.2 -1.6 -1.2 50.1 49.7 54.2 60. 5 49.6 49.2 53.7 61.5 .5 .5 .5 -1.0 .7 -i!i -2.7 .9 1 Net exports of goods and services less foreign net transfers by Government. For 1929-45, net foreign investment and net exports of goods and services have been equated, since foreign net transfers by government were negligible during that period. 2 Less than $50 million. 3 Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 157 EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES TABLE D-17.—Noninstitutional population and the labor force, 1929-58 Civilian labor force Total Nonin- labor stitu- force Armed tional (includ- forces i ing popuTotal lation i armed forces) i Period Total labor force as Unemploypercent ment as perUnem- of non- cent of civilian labor Non- ploy-2 institutional force agri- ment popucullation tural Employment 2 Total Agricultural Percent Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over Old definitions: 2 1929 1930 1931 ... 1932 1933 1934 -. _ 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 C3) 49, 440 260 49, 180 47, 630 10, 450 37, 180 1,550 (3) 3.2 3 () (») (33) () (3) 50, 080 50, 680 51, 250 51, 840 52, 490 260 260 250 250 260 49, 820 50, 420 51,000 51, 590 52, 230 45, 480 42, 400 38, 940 38, 760 40,890 10, 340 10,290 10, 170 10,090 9,900 35, 140 4,340 32, 110 8,020 28, 770 12,060 28, 670 12, 830 30, 990 11, 340 (33) (3) (3) (3) () 8.7 15.9 23.6 24.9 21.7 (33) () (33) ( 3) () 53, 140 53, 740 54, 320 54, 950 55, 600 270 300 320 340 370 52, 870 53, 440 54,000 54, 610 55, 230 42, 260 10, 110 44, 410 10,000 46,300 9,820 44, 220 9,690 45, 750 9,610 32, 150 10, 610 34, 410 9,030 36, 480 7,700 34, 530 10, 390 36, 140 9,480 (33) () (33) (3) () 20.1 16.9 14.3 19.0 17.2 55, 640 55, 910 56, 410 55, 540 54, 630 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 . 100, 380 101, 520 102, 610 103, 660 104, 630 56, 180 540 57, 530 1,620 60, 380 3,970 64, 560 9,020 66, 040 11,410 47, 520 50, 350 53, 750 54, 470 53, 960 9,540 9,100 9,250 9,080 8,950 37, 980 41, 250 44, 500 45, 390 45, 010 8,120 5,560 2,660 1,070 670 56.0 56.7 58.8 62.3 63.1 14.6 9.9 4.7 1.9 1.2 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 105, 520 106, 520 107, 608 108, 632 109, 773 65, 290 11, 430 53, 860 52, 820 60, 970 3, 450 57, 520 55, 250 61, 758 1,590 60, 168 58, 027 62, 898 1,456 61, 442 59, 378 63, 721 1,616 62, 105 58, 710 8,580 8,320 8,266 7,973 8,026 44, 240 46, 930 49, 761 51, 405 50,684 1,040 2,270 2,142 2,064 3,395 61.9 57.2 57.4 57.9 58.0 1.9 3.9 3.6 3.4 5.5 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 _ 110, 929 112, 075 113, 270 115, 094 116,219 64, 749 65, 983 66, 560 67, 362 67, 818 1,650 3,097 3,594 3,547 3,350 7,507 7,054 6,805 6,562 6,504 52, 450 53, 951 54,488 55, 651 54, 734 3,142 1,879 1,673 1,602 3,230 58.4 58.9 58.8 58.5 58.4 5.0 3.0 2.7 2.5 5.0 1955 1956 1957 117, 388 118, 734 120, 445 68, 896 70, 387 70, 761 3,048 65, 847 63, 193 2,857 67, 530 64, 979 2,797 67, 964 65, 272 6,730 56, 464 6,585 58, 394 6,229 59, 043 2,654 2,551 2,693 58. 7 59.3 58.7 4.0 3.8 4.0 107, 608 108, 632 109, 773 61, 758 62, 898 63, 721 1,590 60, 168 57, 812 1,456 61, 442 59, 117 1,616 62, 105 58, 423 8,256 49, 557 7,960 51, 156 8,017 50, 406 2,356 2,325 3,682 57.4 57.9 58.0 3.9 3.8 5.9 110, 929 112,075 113, 270 115,094 116, 219 64, 749 65, 983 66, 560 67, 362 67, 818 1,650 3, 097 3,594 3,547 3, 350 63, 099 6J2, 884 62, 966 63, 815 64, 468 59, 748 60, 784 61, 035 61, 945 60,890 7,497 7,048 6,792 6,555 6,495 52, 251 53, 736 54, 243 55, 390 54, 395 3,351 2,099 1,932 1,870 3,578 58.4 58.9 58.8 58.5 58.4 5.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 5.6 117,388 118, 734 120, 445 121,950 68, 896 70, 387 70, 744 71, 284 3,048 2,857 2,797 2,637 65, 848 67, 530 67, 946 68, 647 62, 944 64, 708 65,011 63, 966 6,718 6,572 6.222 5,844 56, 225 58, 135 58, 789 58, 122 2,904 2,822 2,936 4,681 58.7 59.3 58.7 58.5 4.4 4.2 4.3 6.8 New definitions: 2 1947 . . _ 1948 1949. . _ . 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 .. 1955 1956 1957 1958 63, 099 62, 884 62, 966 63, 815 64, 468 59, 957 61, 005 61, 293 62, 213 61, 238 See footnotes at end of table. 158 TABLE D-17.—Noninstitutional population and the labor jorce^ 1929-58—Continued Civilian labor force Period Noninstitutional population i Total labor 2 force as Employment percent of nonUnem- instituployAgri- Nonagriment 2 tional Total culpopucultural tural lation Total labor force Armed (includ- forces i ing Total armed forces) i Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over Unemployment as percent of civilian labor force Unad- Seasonadjusted ally justed Percent New definitions 2 1956: January February, ._ March AprilMay June 118, 080 118, 180 118, 293 118,367 118, 537 118,632 68, 691 68, 397 68,806 69, 434 70,711 72, 274 2,916 2,906 2,893 2,879 2,865 2,844 65, 775 65, 491 65, 913 66, 555 67, 846 69, 430 62,684 62,354 62, 787 63, 799 64,950 66, 027 5,625 5,463 5,662 6,386 7,120 7,859 57, 059 56, 891 57, 124 57, 410 57, 830 58, 166 3,092 3,136 3,125 2,755 2,896 3,403 58.1 57.9 58.2 58.7 59.7 60.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.1 4.3 4.9 4-0 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.4 4-4 July 118, 762 August 118,891 September. . 119,047 October 119, 198 November. .119,344 December... 119, 481 72, 325 71, 787 70, 896 70,905 70,560 69, 855 2,836 2,840 2,827 2,823 2,828 2,826 69, 489 68,947 68,069 68, 082 67, 732 67, 029 66, 354 66, 420 65, 774 65, 955 65, 084 64,306 7,674 7,237 7,376 7,168 6,190 5,105 58, 680 59, 184 58, 395 58, 785 58, 893 59, 199 3,134 2,527 2,295 2,127 2,648 2,723 60.9 60.4 59.6 59.5 59.1 58.5 4.5 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.9 4.1 4.4 119,614 119, 745 119,899 120, 057 120, 199 120,383 68,638 69, 128 69, 562 69, 771 70, 714 72, 661 2,817 2,817 2,816 2,820 2,821 2,819 65, 821 66, 311 66, 746 66, 951 67, 893 69, 842 62, 578 63,190 63, 865 64,261 65, 178 66,504 4,935 5,195 5,434 5,755 6,659 7,534 57,643 57, 996 58, 431 58, 506 58, 519 58, 970 3,244 3,121 2,882 2,690 2,715 3,337 57.4 57.7 58.0 58.1 58.8 60.4 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.8 4.2 4-1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4-2 July... 120, 579 August 120, 713 September .. 120, 842 October 120, 983 November. . 121, 109 December ... 121, 221 73, 051 71,833 71,044 71,299 70, 790 70, 458 2,823 2,839 2,819 2,786 2,729 2,688 70, 228 68, 994 68, 225 68,513 68,061 67, 770 67, 221 66, 385 65, 674 66,005 64,873 64, 396 7,772 6,823 6,518 6,837 5,817 5,385 59, 449 59, 562 59, 156 59, 168 59, 057 59, 012 3,007 2,609 2,552 2,508 3,188 3,374 60.6 59.5 58.8 58.9 58.5 58.1 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.7 5.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 1957: January February. _ _ March AprilMay June i'o 11 4-1 1958: January February. _ . March April.. May June 121, 325 121, 432 121, 555 121, 656 121, 776 121,900 69, 379 69, 804 70, 158 70,681 71,603 73, 049 2,647 2,644 2,648 2,654 2,638 2,631 66, 732 67,160 67, 510 68, 027 68, 965 70, 418 62, 238 61, 988 62,311 62,907 64, 061 64, 981 4,998 4,830 5,072 5,558 6,272 6,900 57, 240 57, 158 57, 239 57, 349 57, 789 58, 081 4,494 5,173 5,198 5, 120 4,904 5,437 57.2 57.5 57.7 58.1 58.8 59.9 6.7 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.1 7.7 5.8 ft. 7 7.0 7.5 7.2 6.8 July August September _ _ October November.. December. __ 121, 993 122, 092 122, 219 122, 361 122, 486 122, 609 73, 104 72, 703 71, 375 71, 743 71, 112 70, 701 2,631 2,636 2,635 2,632 2,627 2, 620 70, 473 70, 067 68, 740 69, 111 68, 485 68, 081 65, 179 65, 367 64,629 65, 306 64, 653 63, 973 6,718 6,621 6,191 6,404 5,695 4,871 58, 461 58, 746 58, 438 58, 902 58, 958 59, 102 5,294 4,^99 4,111 3,805 3,833 4,108 59.9 59.5 58.4 58. 6 58.1 57.7 7.5 6.7 6.0 5.5 5.6 6.0 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.1 5.9 6.1 1 Data for 1940-52 revised to include about 150,000 members of the armed forces who were outside the continental United States in 1940 and who were, therefore, not enumerated in the 1940 Census and were excluded from the 1940-52 estimates. 2 See Note. 3 Not available. NOTE.—Civilian labor force data beginning with May 1956 are based on a 330-area sample. For January 1954-April 1956 they are based on a 230-area sample; for 1946-53 on a 68-area sample; for 1940-45 on a smaller sample; and for 1929-39 on sources other than direct enumeration. Effective January 19--7. persons on layoff with definite instructions to return to work within 30 days of layoff and persons waiting to start new wage and salary jobs within the foltowing 30 days are classified as unemployed. Such persons had previously been classified as employed (with a job but not at work). The combined total of the groups changing classification has averaged about 200,000 to 300,000 a month in recent years. The small number of persons in school during the survey week and waiting to start new jobs are classified as not in the labor force instead of employed as formerly. Persons waiting to open new imsinesses or start new farms within 30 days continue to be classified as employed. (New definitions series for periods prior to January 1957 are Census Bureau estimates under the old definitions adjusted by Council of Economic Advisers to the new definitions.) Beginnim: July 1955, monthly data are for the calendar week containing the 12th of the month; previously, for week containing the 8th. Annual data are averages of monthly figures. For the years 1940-52, estimating procedures made use of 1940 Census data; for subsequent years, 1950 Census data were used. For the effects of this change on the historical comparability of the data, see Annual Report on the Labor Force, 1954, Series P-50, No. 59, April 1955, p. 12. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of Labor (labor force, 1929-39), and Council of Economic Advisers. 159 TABLE D-18.—Employment and unemployment, by age and sex, 1942—58 [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Employed Period Unemployed Total 45 years civil45 years 20-44 years and 20-44 years and over Total ian over 14-19 labor Total 14-19 em- years unem- years force ployed Fe- Male Fe- ployed Fe- Male FeMale male Male male male male Old definitions ;i 1942 1943 1944 56, 410 53,750 5,770 20,790 9,400 14,160 3,630 55, 540 54, 470 6,350 17, 550 11, 050 15,160 4,360 54, 630 53,960 6,050 16, 380 11, 280 15, 480 4,770 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 53,860 57, 520 60,168 61, 442 62; 105 52,820 55,250 58, 027 59, 378 58, 710 5,480 15, 830 11, 140 15,520 4,550 21, 170 9,870 15,280 4,717 23,409 9,828 15, 474 4,841 23, 842 10, 098 15, 677 4,512 23, 483 10,087 15, 491 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 63, 099 62, 884 62, 966 63, 815 64, 468 59, 957 61, 005 61,293 62, 213 61, 238 4,564 23, 833 10, 376 15, 666 4,614 23, 594 10, 833 16, 144 4, 530 23, 372 10, 917 16, 345 4,514 23, 715 10, 953 16, 725 4,285 23, 178 10, 730 16,649 1955 1956 2,660 1,070 670 510 290 200 670 180 140 520 260 170 770 240 110 190 100 50 4,850 4,380 4,600 4,924 5,138 1,040 2,270 2,142 2,064 3,395 190 330 290 1,200 425 920 415 757 595 1,329 270 280 303 353 559 200 410 396 414 719 50 90 99 127 194 5,517 5,819 6,130 6,306 6,395 3,142 1,879 1,673 1,602 3,230 543 1,119 515 356 362 495 312 512 515 1,158 552 419 344 300 617 697 402 345 363 684 232 190 127 116 256 65, 847 63,193 4,446 23, 768 11,000 16, 878 7,101 67, 530 64, 979 4,764 24, 051 11, 271 17,294 7,598 2,654 2,551 471 510 854 784 502 491 606 530 222 239 67, 946 65,011 4,719 23, 992 11, 247 17, 247 7,803 68,647 63, 966 4,512 23, 374 11, 028 17, 036 8,015 2,936 4,681 574 936 758 1,715 566 850 605 966 254 392 New definitions:1 1957 1958 1957: January 65, 821 February... 66, 311 March 66, 746 April 66, 951 Mav . ... 67, 893 June . 69, 842 62, 578 63,190 63, 865 64, 261 65, 178 66, 504 3,871 23, 598 10, 797 16, 846 3,973 23, 583 11,066 16, 955 4,087 23, 807 11,077 17, 109 4,204 23, 911 11, 091 17, 212 4,475 24, 084 11, 276 17, 407 5,667 24, 346 11, 191 17, 480 7,468 7,612 7,786 7,843 7,936 7,820 3,244 493 1,078 3,121 465 1,086 2,882 497 947 2,690 461 915 2,715 566 790 3,337 1,105 874 652 566 506 517 556 606 731 724 671 606 563 528 289 280 262 192 242 225 July 70, 228 August 68, 994 September- 68, 225 October 68,513 November- 68, 061 December.. 67, 770 67, 221 66, 385 65, 674 66,005 64, 873 64, 396 6,332 24, 490 11,201 17, 385 5,953 24,450 11,067 17, 304 4,680 24, 199 11,416 17, 430 4,678 24, 101 11, 766 17, 431 4,338 23, 832 11,550 17, 274 4,384 23, 513 11, 465 17, 125 7,814 7,613 7,945 8,030 7,878 7,909 3,007 2,609 2,552 2,508 3,188 3,374 582 554 555 523 638 541 499 479 505 528 667 768 251 244 251 248 313 258 1958: January 66,732 February. __ 67, 160 March 67, 510 April 68, 027 May68,965 June . 70, 418 62, 238 61, 988 62, 311 62, 907 64,061 64, 981 3,805 23, 022 10, 890 16, 837 3,844 22, 738 10, 779 16, 784 3,878 22, 818 10, 877 16, 746 4,016 23, 018 10, 942 16, 888 4,361 23,266 11,131 17, 137 5,308 23, 513 10, 983 17, 146 7,682 7,844 7,994 8,039 8,167 8,031 4,494 578 5,173 640 5,198 603 5,120 673 4,904 776 5,437 1,360 779 920 932 1,103 894 1,171 937 1,114 915 992 906 916 377 400 382 436 410 420 July 70, 473 August 70, 067 September.. 68,740 October 69, 111 November.. 68, 485 December. .68,081 65, 179 65, 367 64, 629 65,306 64, 654 63, 974 5,756 23, 567 10,887 17, 119 5,797 23,769 10, 891 17, 058 4,416 23, 730 11, 125 17, 236 4,468 23, 823 11, 450 17, 351 4,238 23, 763 11,286 17, 172 4,252 23,467 11,096 16, 964 7,851 7,852 8,122 8,214 8,195 8,194 5,294 1,200 1,848 754 1,633 4,699 4,111 695 1,365 3,805 601 1,265 3,833 625 1,258 587 1,529 4,109 886 907 838 752 745 707 428 436 387 381 330 316 847 828 553 779 436 802 401 809 547 1,023 512 1,294 1,839 2,095 2,147 1,959 1,812 1,836 1 See Note, Table D-17 for explanation of differences between the old and new definitions. NOTE.—Data are not available prior to 1942 for all the age/sex groups above. See Note, Table D-17 for information on area sample used and reporting periods. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 160 930 968 825 807 874 968 TABLE D—19.—Employed persons not at work, by reason for not working, and special groups of unemployed persons, 1946-58 * [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Special groups of unemployed persons 3 Employed persons not at work, by reason for not working Period Total 1946.. 1947 1948 1949 Bad weather 2,103 2,260 2,490 2,243 (6) 211 197 110 2,440 2,459 2, 555 2,529 2,688 1955 1956 1957 1958 1957' January February March . April May June ..- 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 .. . July. August September October November December 1958' January February March April May June July.. August September October November December . Industrial dispute (6) Vacation Illness All other reasons 2 Tempo- New wage rary and salary jobs layoff « 95 97 79 662 834 ,044 ,044 819 847 844 719 (8) 273 308 291 97 123 141 185 58 92 121 101 151 111 68 96 73 85 57 164 73 53 ,137 ,073 ,130 ,171 ,361 718 782 775 827 776 349 436 418 362 425 92 117 142 167 221 116 103 117 101 127 2,683 2,888 3, 017 3,076 103 109 139 182 61 76 45 59 ,268 ,346 1,447 1,479 835 901 962 882 416 456 425 474 133 124 150 166 117 147 110 120 1,994 2,C11 1,905 1,822 2,056 3,358 354 ?26 167 139 149 61 12 26 40 40 46 66 313 342 342 429 707 1,959 876 999 975 896 810 783 442 418 382 317 344 489 202 149 102 143 142 137 103 93 83 68 147 251 7,014 6.048 2,777 2,571 2,492 2,161 17 25 47 53 175 257 113 81 41 34 16 27 5,577 4,522 1,430 794 524 421 793 885 857 1,342 1,339 989 514 535 402 348 438 467 189 129 148 181 121 160 136 105 99 54 84 96 2,297 2,821 2,149 2,316 1,902 3, 305 342 708 271 135 40 65 22 27 54 41 50 45 330 353 324 742 584 1,867 1,145 1,202 1,026 938 836 751 458 531 474 460 391 577 187 227 201 207 160 156 61 68 64 88 188 328 7,315 5,893 2,731 2,224 1,971 1,991 145 27 29 20 44 353 31 58 58 206 33 5,781 4,517 1,512 788 602 353 745 736 737 821 850 801 612 555 395 389 442 399 176 154 112 129 153 129 130 175 135 70 56 77 85 1 Data prior to 1957 are Census Bureau estimates adjusted by Council of Economic Advisers to the new definitions of employment and unemployment. 2 Includes persons waiting to open new businesses or start new farms within 30 days. 3 Under the old definitions of employment and unemployment, these groups were included in the "employed but not at work" category. 4 Persons on layoff with definite instructions to return to work within 30 days of the layoff. 5 Persons scheduled to start new wage and salary jobs within 30 days. Under the old definitions, the "new job or business" group included these persons as well as persons waiting to open new businesses or start new farms within 30 day? (see "all other" category in this table) and persons in school during the survey week and waiting to start, new jobs (these are now classified as "not in the labor force"). 6 Not available. NOTE.—See Note, Table D-17 for information on area sample used and reporting periods. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 161 TABLE D-20.—Unemployed persons, by duration oj unemployment, 1946-58 Duration of unemployment Period Total unemployed 4 weeks and under 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks Over 26 weeks Average duration of unemployment (weeks) Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over Old definitions: * 1946 1947 1948 1949 2,270 2,142 2,064 3,395 (2) 1,041 1,087 1,517 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 3,142 1,879 1,673 1,602 3,230 1,307 1,003 925 910 1,303 1955 1956 2,654 2,551 (2) (2) (3) 234 193 427 141 164 116 256 1,055 574 517 482 1,115 425 166 148 132 495 357 137 84 79 317 12.1 9.7 8.3 8.1 11.7 1, 138 1,214 815 804 367 301 336 232 13.2 11.3 2, 936 4,682 1,485 1,833 890 1,397 321 785 239 667 10.4 13.8 1957: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 3,082 2,914 2,723 3,023 1,382 1,559 1,469 1,530 1,108 738 781 935 371 359 245 309 223 258 228 248 10.6 10.7 9.8 10.3 1958: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 4, 955 5,154 4,701 3,915 1,902 2,024 1,785 1,619 1,900 1,377 1,322 986 799 1,126 683 533 354 626 911 776 11.1 13. 5 15.3 15.9 704 669 1,195 9.8 8.6 10.0 New definitions: > 1957 1958 .. 1 2 See Note, Table D-17 for explanation of differences between the old and new definitions. For duration of less than 6 months, data are available only for under 3 months (1,568,000) and 3 to 6 months (564,000). 3 Not available. NOTE.—See Note, Table D-17 for information on area sample used and reporting periods. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. l62 TABLE D-21.—Unemployment insurance programs, selected data, 1939 and 1946-58 Initial claims 1 Period State, veteran, State and Federal proemployee grams 3 pro- 2 grams Insured unemployment 4 State All pro-5 programs grams 3 6 State Benefits paid insured under State3 prounemgrams ployExhaus- ment tions, as perState cent of proTotal Average covered grams 3 ; employ- (millions weekly of dol check ment lars)s (dollars) s (per-3 4 cent) Weekly average (thousands) 1939. 188 188 429.3 10.66 1946 1947 1948 1949 341 280 282 375 189 187 210 323 2, 803 1,804 1,465 2,474 1,294 1,008 999 1,973 4.3 3.1 3.0 6.2 1,094. 9 775.1 789.9 1,736.0 18.50 17.83 19.03 20.48 211 215 222 310 236 208 215 217 303 1,599 996 1,064 1,058 2,039 1,497 965 1,019 988 1,857 4.6 2.8 2.9 2.8 5.2 1,373.1 840.4 998.2 962.2 2,026. 9 20.76 21.09 22.79 23.58 24.93 236 234 276 11 379 228 229 271 372 1,388 1,312 1, 560 11 2, 727 ,269 ,225 ,466 ,537 3.4 3.1 3.5 6.1 1,379.2 1,409.3 1, 766. 4 3,475. 0 25.08 27.06 28.21 30. 55 347 256 219 254 221 226 340 251 214 250 218 220 1,850 1,846 1,700 1,565 1,424 1,319 ,737 ,730 ,592 ,475 ,350 ,251 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.0 177. 6 164.9 168.8 154.3 145.7 123. 5 27.73 27. 85 27.72 27.72 27.47 27.44 280 196 250 263 325 466 276 191 246 259 320 460 1,368 1,228 1,240 1,314 1,623 2,256 ,285 ,151 ,167 ,237 ,513 2,112 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.6 5.1 130.1 121.3 113.3 131.8 136.6 207.1 27.59 27.87 28.64 29.20 29.44 29.75 505 461 435 457 355 497 454 427 451 349 360 3,065 3,375 3,505 3,527 3,186 2,847 2,877 3,163 3,276 3,302 2,984 2,667 6.9 7.6 7.9 7.9 7.1 6.3 313. 0 320.2 370.2 403.8 363.6 325.0 30.09 30.48 30.53 30.88 30.80 30.80 367 302 273 276 " 328 "415 361 298 269 274 315 405 2,717 2,374 2,062 1,863 11 1,957 11 2,300 2,511 2,203 1,906 1,722 1,781 2,106 6.0 5.2 4.5 4.1 4.3 5.0 305. 6 255. 4 231.1 210.3 174.5 206.0 30.62 30. 50 30.66 30.45 30.33 30. 50 f 1950. 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 19581° 1957: January February March April May June July August September October November December 1958: January February March April May June. July August September October November 10 December 1,086 1 Most of these are instances of new unemployment. 2 Data on veterans relate to those under the following programs: Servicemen's Readjustment Act which became effective in October 1944 and expired for most veterans in July 1949, and Veterans Readjustment Assistance Act of 1952, effective October 15, 1952. 3 Beginning 1955, data include State programs and the program for Federal employees; all prior years are for State programs only. Beginning 1956, data also include workers added by the extension of coverage to smaller firms. 4 Represents the number of unemployed workers covered by unemployment insurance programs who have completed at least one week of unemployment. Excludes territories. 5 State, veteran, Railroad Retirement, and Federal employee programs. 6 State unemployment insurance programs during the period shown excluded from coverage agricultural workers, domestic servants, workers in nonprofit organizations, unpaid family workers, the self-employed, and (in most States) workers in very small firms. 7 Represents the number of individuals who received payment for the final week of compensable unemployment in a benefit year. Workers who have exhausted benefit rights do not necessarily remain unemployed; some find employment, and others withdraw from the labor force. 8 Monthly totals are gross amounts; annual figures are adjusted for voided benefit checks. 9 For total unemployment only. 1° Preliminary. 11 Includes activities under the unemployment compensation program for ex-servicemen, which became effective October 27, 1958. Source: Department of Labor. 163 TABLE D-22.—Number of wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments, 1929-58 1 [Thousands of employees] Manufacturing Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Mining GovTransernCon- portament tract tion 2 FiServ(Fedconand Trade nance ice 2 eral, struc- public State, tion utiliand ties local) 10, 534 (») (3) 1,078 1,497 3,907 6,401 1,431 3,127 3,066 29, 143 26, 383 .. 23, 377 23, 466 25, 699 9,401 8,021 6,797 7,258 8,346 (33) ( 3) (3) (3) () (33) (3) (3) () (3) 1,000 864 722 735 874 1,372 1,214 970 809 862 3,675 3,243 2,804 2,659 2,736 6,064 5,531 4,907 4,999 5,552 1,398 1,333 1,270 1,225 1,247 3,084 2,913 2,682 2,614 2,784 3,149 3, 264 3,225 3,167 3,298 26, 792 28, S02 30, 718 28, 902 30,311 8,907 9,653 10, 606 9, 253 10, 078 (3) (33) () (3) 4,683 (••) (33) () (3) 5,394 888 937 1,006 882 845 91? 1,145 1,112 1,055 1,150 2,771 2,956 3,114 2,840 2,912 5, 692 6,076 6,543 6,453 6,612 1,262 1, 313 1,355 1, 347 1,399 2,883 3,060 3.233 3,196 3, 321 3,477 3,662 3,749 3,876 3,995 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 32, 058 36, 220 39, 779 42, 106 41, 534 10, 780 12, 974 15, 051 17, 381 17, 111 5,337 6,945 8,804 11,077 10, 858 5,443 6,028 6,247 6, 304 6,253 916 947 983 917 883 1,294 1,790 2,170 1,567 1,094 3, 013 3,248 3,433 3,619 3,798 6,940 7,416 7, 333 7,189 7,260 1,436 1,480 1,469 1, 435 1,409 3, 477 3,705 3,857 3, 919 3,934 4,202 4,660 5,483 6,080 6,043 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 40, 037 41. 287 43, 462 44, 448 43, 315 15, 302 14, 461 15,290 15, 321 14, 178 9,079 7, 739 8,372 8,312 7,473 6,222 6, 722 6,918 7,010 6,705 826 852 943 982 918 1,132 1,661 1,982 2,169 2, 165 3,872 4,023 4,122 4,141 3, 949 7,522 8,602 9,196 9,519 9, 513 1,428 1,619 1,672 1.741 1, 765 4,011 4,474 4,783 4,9?5 4,972 5,944 5,595 5, 474 5,650 5, 856 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 44, 738 47, 347 48, 303 49, 681 48, 431 14, 967 16, 104 16. 334 17, 238 15, 995 8,085 9,080 9,340 10, 105 9,122 6,882 7,024 6,994 7, 133 6,873 889 916 885 852 777 2, 333 2,603 2, 634 2,622 2,593 3,977 4, 166 4, 185 4,221 4,009 9, 645 10, 012 10, 281 10, 527 10r 520 1,824 1,892 1, 967 2,038 ?, 122 5, 077 5,264 5,411 5,538 5,664 6, 026 6, 389 6,609 6, 645 6,751 1955 1956 1957 1958 4 50, 056 51,766 52, 162 50, 531 16, 563 16, 903 16, 782 15, 462 9,549 9,835 9,821 8,739 7,014 7,068 6,961 6,723 777 807 809 721 2,759 2,929 2,808 2,649 4,062 4,161 4,151 3,905 10, 846 11,221 11,302 11, 136 2,219 2,308 2,348 2,375 5,916 6,160 6,336 6,394 6,914 7,277 7,626 7,889 Total wage and salary workers Period 31, 041 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 3937 1938 1939 .. Seasonally adjusted 1956: January February. .. March April May June 51,301 51, 391 51, 303 51, 631 51, 767 51, 963 16, 951 16, 898 16, 812 16, 931 16, 922 16, 894 9,863 9,802 9,736 9,839 9,814 9,800 7,088 7, 096 7,076 7,092 7,108 7,094 792 794 801 814 809 822 2,768 2,802 2,834 2, 891 2,964 3, 079 4,154 4,141 4,131 4,144 4,163 4,182 11,197 11,231 11, 163 11,242 11,215 11,251 2,271 2,284 2,288 2,289 2,300 2,307 6, 108 6, 138 6, 127 6,147 6,130 6, 160 7, 060 7, 103 7,147 7, 173 7,264 7,268 July August September ._ October November.. December . _ 51, 345 52, 029 51,953 52, 137 52, 156 52, 251 16, 471 16,900 16, 873 17,043 17, 057 17, 093 9, 438 9, 835 9,834 9,978 10, 033 10, 050 7,033 7,065 7,039 7,065 7,024 7,043 759 819 824 820 814 811 2,984 3,007 2,980 2,951 2,926 2,917 4,134 4,163 4,170 4,183 4,165 4,175 11,227 11,269 11,206 11,242 11,238 11,246 2,306 2,329 2,328 2, 330 2,330 2, 325 6, 182 6,164 6,171 6,165 6,201 6, 225 7,282 7,378 7,401 7, 403 7, 425 7, 459 1957: January February. -March April May . June. 52, 194 52, 254 52, 207 52, 243 52, 340 52, 415 17, 030 16, 978 16, 949 16, 947 16, 930 16, 909 10, 017 9,991 9,952 9,940 9,928 9,921 7, 013 6,987 6,997 7,007 7,002 6,988 808 807 803 812 814 823 2,798 2,831 2, 859 2,855 2,891 2,899 4,181 4,161 4,164 4, 157 4,158 4,159 11,275 11,306 11,258 11,265 11,298 11,327 2,321 2,330 2,329 2,326 2,335 2,342 6,268 6, 306 6,279 6,284 6,306 6, 347 7,513 7,535 7, 566 7, 597 7,608 7,609 July.. August September.. October November December . 52, 464 52, 457 52, 224 52, 015 51,758 51,516 16,876 16, 826 16, 678 16, 604 16, 455 16, 252 9,893 9,863 9,726 9,681 9, 562 9,393 6,983 6,963 6,952 6,923 6,893 6,859 828 820 814 802 789 784 2,847 2,805 2,782 2,763 2,710 2,679 4,163 4,179 4,170 4,141 4,104 4,070 11,368 11, 402 11,349 11,315 11,290 11,237 2,349 2,359 2, 366 2,373 2,372 2, 365 6, 395 6,372 6,380 6, 343 6,367 6, 382 7,638 7, 694 7, 685 7, 674 7,671 7,747 Sec footnotes at end of table. 164 TABLE D-22.—Number of wage and salary workers in nonagr{cultural establishments, 1929-58*— Continued [Thousands of employees] Manufacturing Period Total wage and salary workers Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Mining TransCon- portatract tion Ficonand Trade 2 nance struc- public tion utilities Service 2 Government (Federal, State, and local) Seasonally adjusted 1958: January February. .March April May __ June 51, 223 50,575 50, 219 50, 054 50, 147 50, 315 15, 965 15, 648 15, 389 15, 243 15, 202 15, 275 9,155 8,895 8,717 8,566 8,498 8,556 6,810 6,753 6,672 6,677 6, 704 6,719 766 747 733 723 718 713 2,652 2,455 2,573 2,624 2,698 2,698 4,045 3,990 3,930 3,890 3,877 3,888 11,305 11, 235 11,116 11,050 11,087 11, 105 2,368 2,367 2,360 2, 356 2,370 2,367 6,368 6,367 6,330 6,352 6,360 6,392 7,754 7,766 7,788 7,816 7,835 7,877 July August . September-October 4 November December 4 . 50, 411 50, 570 50, 780 50, 582 50, 825 50. 736 15,312 15, 330 15,529 15, 358 15, 664 15, 667 8,596 8,605 8,801 8,625 8,914 8,940 6,716 6,725 6,728 6,733 6,750 6,727 709 701 707 708 708 708 2,693 2,711 2,698 2,698 2,692 2,550 3,877 3,867 3,858 3,887 3,876 3,864 11,121 11,175 11,151 11, 154 11,110 11, 100 2,363 2,377 2,392 2,392 2,389 2,384 6,433 6, 420 6,440 6,399 6,424 6,446 7,903 7,989 8,005 7,986 7. 962 8,017 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during, or received pay for, any part of the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and unpaid family workers. Not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force (Table D-17) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and unpaid family workers, which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., and which are based on a sample survey of households, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Beginning with 1939, data are not strictly comparable with data shown for earlier years because of the shift of the automotive repair service industry from the trade to the service division. 3 Not available. 4 Preliminary. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Labor. 489916 0—59 165 TABLE D-23.—Average weekly hours of work in selected industries, 1929-58 Retail Manufacturing Period Total 1929 1930 1931. . 1932 1933. 1934 1935 19361937 1938 1939 1940 1941-.. 1942 1943. 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951. 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 . . 1958« 1957: January February. .... March . April May JuneJuly August September October November December 1958: January February March April Mav .. -. . June July August September October November 6 _ . December 6 -._ 44.2 42.1 40.5 38.3 38.1 34.6 36.6 39.2 38.6 35.6 37.7 38.1 40.6 42.9 44.9 45.2 43.4 40.4 40.4 40.1 39.2 40.5 40.7 40.7 40.5 39.7 40.7 40.4 39.8 39.2 40.2 40.2 40.1 39.8 39.7 40.0 39.8 40.0 39.9 39.5 39.3 39.4 38.7 38.4 38.6 38.3 38.7 39.2 39.2 39.6 39.9 39.8 39.9 40.2 Durable goods Nondurable goods 3 3 () (33) () 32.6 34.8 33.9 37.3 41.0 40.0 35.0 38.0 39.3 42.1 45.1 46.6 46.6 44.1 40.2 40.6 40.5 39.5 41.2 41.6 41.5 41.3 40.2 41.4 41.1 40.3 39.5 40.9 40.9 40.8 40.5 40.3 40.5 40.0 40.3 40.2 39.8 39.7 39.7 38.9 38.6 39.0 38.8 39.1 39.6 39.4 39.8 40.2 40.1 40.3 40.7 () (3) (3) 41.9 40.0 35.1 36.1 37.7 37.4 36.1 37.4 37.0 38.9 40.3 42.5 43.1 42.3 40.5 40.1 39.6 38.8 39.7 39.5 39.6 39.5 39.0 39.8 39.5 39.1 38.8 39.1 39.2 39.1 38.8 38.9 39.2 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.0 38.8 39.0 38.3 38.1 38.1 37.7 38.1 38.7 39.0 39.4 39.5 39.4 39.4 39.6 trade Bitumi- BuildClass I Tele- Whole- (except ing nous eating conrail2 sale coal and roads i phone trade mining strucdrinktion ing Laundries places) 38.4 33.5 28.3 27.2 29.5 27.0 26.4 28.8 27.9 23.5 27.1 28.1 31.1 32.9 36.6 43.4 42.3 41.6 40.7 38.0 32.6 35.0 35.2 34.1 34.4 32.6 37.6 37.8 36.6 33.6 37.5 38.4 37.4 37.0 35.8 37.6 36.3 36.5 36.9 36.4 33.5 35.5 34.0 33.1 31.7 30.0 31. 1 35.2 32.4 35.3 35.4 35.8 35.6 (3) 3 () (33) (3) (3 ) () 28.9 30.1 32.8 33.4 32.1 32.6 33.1 34.8 36.4 38.4 39.6 39.0 38.1 37.6 437.3 36.7 36.3 37.2 38.1 37.0 36.2 36.2 36.4 36.1 35.7 34.0 36.3 36.0 36.2 36.4 36.9 36.8 37.2 36.8 36.5 34.4 34.9 35.2 33.0 35.2 35.5 36.3 36.2 36.3 36.7 36.5 36.8 35.4 (3) 3 () () (3) (3) (3) (3) fl) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (33) (3) (3) (43.7 ) 44.3 45.8 47.0 48.7 48.9 48.5 46.0 46.4 46.2 43.7 40.8 41.0 40.6 40.6 40.8 41.9 41.7 41.7 41.6 42.5 42.2 40.9 42.0 42.4 41.0 42.6 42.3 41.1 42.2 40.9 40.8 41.6 41.5 40.1 41.4 41.2 41.3 42.5 41.2 42.2 42.6 (3) (3) 3 (3) (3) 38.8 38.9 39.1 39.5 40.1 40.5 41.9 42.3 541.7 39.4 37.4 39.2 38.5 38.9 39.1 38.5 38.7 38.9 39.6 39.5 39.0 38.4 38.7 39.0 38.7 38.7 39.0 39.2 39.5 38.9 38.8 39.2 40.0 38.6 38.0 38.2 37.8 37.7 37.8 38.2 38.5 38.6 39.0 39.0 39.6 (3) 3 () (33) () (33) (3) () 41.3 42.6 42.8 * 42. 2 41.7 41.2 41.0 41.3 42.2 42.9 42.7 41.5 41.0 40.9 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.6 40.5 40.4 40.6 40.4 40.2 40.1 40.2 40.2 40.1 40.0 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.4 40.4 40.2 40.0 40.4 40.1 39.8 39.9 39.6 40.0 40.1 40.3 40.2 40.3 40.3 40.1 (3) (3) (33) (3) (3) ( 3) () (33) (3) (3) () 42.7 42.5 42.1 41.1 40.3 40.4 40.3 40.7 40.3 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.2 39.9 39.2 39.1 39.0 38.6 38.1 38.0 38.2 38.1 38.0 37.9 38.0 38.2 38.6 38.6 38.1 37.6 37.5 38.3 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 38.2 38.7 38.7 38.0 37.9 37.8 (3) (3) (33) ( 3) (3) () 39.4 41.0 42.7 42.6 41.6 41.8 41.8 42.1 42.2 42.9 42.9 42.8 42.9 42.6 41.9 41.5 41.2 41.1 41.1 40.5 40.1 40.3 40.3 39.7 39.3 39.8 39.8 39.9 40.0 40.3 40.4 39.8 39.4 39.6 39.4 39.0 39.5 39.0 38.6 39.0 39.2 39.6 39.8 39.7 39.3 39.3 39.4 38.9 (3) 1 Averages are based upon monthly data (exclusive of switching and terminal companies) summarized in the M-300 report by the ICC and relate to all employees who received pay during the month, except executives, officials, and staff assistants (ICC Group I). Beginning September 1949, data reflect a reduction in the basic workweek from 48 to 40 hours. 2 Prior to April 1945, data relate to all employees except executives: from April 1945 to May 1949, mainly to employees subject to the Fair Labor Standards Act; and beginning June 1949, to nonsupervisory employees only. 3 4 Not available. Data beginning with January of year noted are not comparable with those for earlier periods. 5 Nine-month average, April through December, because of new series started in April 1945. 6 Preliminary. NOTE.—Data are for production workers in manufacturing and mining, construction workers in building construction, and for nonsupervisory employees in other industries (except as noted). Data are for payroll periods ending nearest the 15th of the month. The annual figures for 1958 are simple arithmetic averages of the monthly figures shown and are not strictly comparable with the averages for earlier years, which have been weighted by data on employment. Source: Department of Labor. 166 TABLE D- 24.—Average gross hourly earnings in selected industries, 1929-58 Manufacturing Period Total BituNon- minous Dura- duracoal ble ble mining goods goods Retail Buildtrade ing Class I Tele- Whole- (except Launconrail- phone 2 sale eating dries trade and struc- roads i drinking tion places) $0. 566 (4) ( 4 ) $0. 681 (4) (4) (4) .552 .684 (44) (44 ) (44) (44) (<) .515 .647 ( 4) ( 4) (4) () (4) .446 $0. 497 $0. 420 .520 (4 ) ( 4) (4) .442 .472 .427 .501 () ( 4) (4) .532 .556 .515 .673 $0. 795 () () 4 .550 .745 .815 .577 .530 (4 ) (4) .556 .529 .794 .824 .586 ( 4) (4) .624 $0. 774 .674 .856 .903 .577 (4) .816 .627 .584 .878 .686 .908 () .822 .633 .582 .886 .932 .698 $0. 730 .661 .724 .602 .733 .827 .883 .958 .729 .808 .743 .820 .993 .010 .640 .843 .853 .723 1. 059 .148 .837 .947 .961 1.059 .870 .852 .803 1.139 .252 1.019 1.117 .911 .319 .948 .861 1.186 .023 1.111 .904 .379 .955 6.962 .240 .086 .156 1.015 .478 1.087 1.124 .401 .237 .292 1.171 .636 1.681 1.186 1.197 .350 .410 1.278 .898 51.848 1.301 1.248 .401 .941 1.935 1.427 1.345 .469 1.325 .465 .537 1.378 2.010 2.031 1.572 1. 398 2.21 1.49 .59 1.48 2.19 1.73 .67 1.59 .67 1.54 2.31 1.83 .77 2.29 2.48 1. 68 .77 .87 2.48 1.88 1.61 1.76 .81 .92 1.66 2.48 2.60 1.93 1.82 .88 2.66 2.56 1.96 2.01 1.71 1.86 .98 2.81 2.80 2.12 2.10 1.80 2.07 2.96 1.95 2.20 3.02 2.26 1.88 3.02 3.09 2.05 2.13 1.94 2.28 2.43 2.91 .91 2.05 2.18 1.86 2.95 2.19 .92 2.05 2.92 2.24 1.86 2.17 2.93 .92 2.05 2.90 2.20 2.18 1.87 2.93 2.06 3.02 2.91 2.21 2.18 .93 1.87 May 2.06 3.01 2.93 .94 2.18 1.88 2.23 June 2.94 2.07 1.89 2.27 .95 2.19 3.05 July .94 2.07 2.20 1.89 3.09 2.95 2.24 August .94 2.21 3.04 2.26 2.07 1.88 2.97 September 2.08 2.22 3.02 2.28 1.90 3.06 .95 October 3.02 2.09 3.04 2.25 .97 2.23 1.90 November 2.11 2.24 3.03 .98 1.91 3.05 2.40 December 2.10 2.24 1.92 3.04 3.05 2.40 2.01 1958: January 2.11 3.04 2.24 1.92 3.07 2.38 2.01 February 2.44 1.92 3.04 3.08 2.10 2.24 2.01 March 2.11 2.02 3.04 3.06 2.25 1.93 2.40 April 2.11 3.02 1.94 3.06 2.39 2.25 2.03 May 2.12 3.06 2. C4 1.94 2.43 2.26 3.00 June 2.12 1.94 3.02 2.45 2.05 3.06 2.27 July 3.02 2.06 2.13 1.94 3.09 2.43 2.28 August 3.09 2.45 2.07 2.13 2.29 1.93 3.00 September 2.14 1.95 3.13 2.45 2.08 3.01 2.30 October 3.13 2.14 2.43 2.09 2.29 1.95 3.01 November 7 _ _ _ 2.17 1.96 3.13 2.08 2.33 3.03 ( 44 ) December * _ _ _ 2.19 2.35 1.97 (4) (4) () (4) 1929. _ . 1930 1931 . 1932. . . 1933 1934... 1935 1936 1937 1938. . . 1939 1940 1941 . 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947-.. 1948 1949 .. 1950. - . 1951 1952 .. 1953 1954 1955.-. 1956 1957 1958 7 . 1957: January February March April (4) (44) f) ( 44 ) ( 4) () $0. 648 .667 .698 5 . 700 .715 .739 .793 .860 .933 .985 1.029 1.150 .268 .359 .414 .483 .58 .67 1.77 1.83 1.90 2.01 2.10 2.17 2.06 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.09 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.13 2.13 2.14 2.14 2.13 2. 15 2.15 2.15 2.16 2.18 2.19 2. 18 2.20 2.18 2.19 (4) (4) (44) (4) (4) ( 4) () (4) ( 44) () (4) $0. 542 .553 .580 .626 .679 .731 .783 .893 1.009 1.088 1. 137 1.176 1.26 1.32 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.57 1.64 1.70 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.62 1.64 1.66 1.67 1.66 1.67 1.67 1.66 1.63 1.68 1.68 1.67 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.71 1.71 1.71 1.71 (4) Agriculture 3 $0. 241 (4) .226 (44) . 172 (4) .129 (4) .115 () $0. 378 .129 .376 .142 .378 .152 .172 .395 .414 .166 .422 .166 .429 .169 .444 .206 .482 .268 .538 .353 .605 .423 .472 .648 .704 .515 .547 .767 .817 .580 .559 .843 .861 .561 .92 .625 .94 .661 .672 .98 .661 1.00 .675 1.01 .705 1.05 1.09 .728 .757 1.13 .785 1.07 1.07 1.07 .643 1.08 1.09 1.09 .717 1.09 1.10 1.11 .757 1.11 1.11 1.11 .804 1.12 1.12 1.12 .657 1.13 1.13 1.14 .728 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 ""."795 1.14 (4) 1 Averages are based upon monthly data (exclusive of switching and terminal companies) summarized in the M-300 report by the ICC and relate to all employees who received pay during the month, except executives, officials, and staff assistants (ICC group I). Beginning September 1949, data reflect a wage rate increase and reduction in basic workweek from 48 to 40 hours. 2 Prior to April 1945, data relate to all employees except executives; from April 1945 to May 1949, mainly to employees subject to the Fair Labor Standards Act; and beginning June 1949, to nonsupervisory employees only. Weighted average of all farm wage rates on a per hour basis. Not available. Data beginning with January of year noted are not comparable with those for earlier periods. Nine-month average, April through December, because of new series started in April 1945. Preliminary. NOTE.—Data are for production workers in manufacturing and mining, construction workers in building construction, and for all nonsupervisory employees in other industries (except as noted). Data are for payroll periods ending nearest the 15th of the month. The annual figures for 1958 are simple arithmetic averages of the monthly figures shown and are not strictly comparable with the averages for earlier years, which have been weighted by data on man-hours. Sources: Department of Labor and Department of Agriculture. 167 TABLE D-25.—Average gross weekly earnings in selected industries, 1929-58 Retail trade Bitumi- Build(except WholeClass I ing eating Telenous railsale 2 conand Duracoal Nontrade drinkstruc- roads i phone ble durable mining tion ing goods goods places) Manufacturing Period Total 1929 $25. 03 1930 23.25 1931 20.87 1932 17.05 16.73 1933 1934 18.40 1935 20.13 1936 21.78 24.05 1937 22.30 1938 1939 23.86 1940 25.20 1941 29. 58 1942 36.65 1943 43.14 1944 46.08 1945 44.39 1946 43.82 1947 49.97 54. 14 1948 1949 54.92 1950 59. 33 1951 . 64.71 1952 67.97 1953. 71.69 1954 71.86 1955 76.5? 1956 79.99 1957 82.39 1958 • 83.50 1957: January 82.41 February 82.41 March 82.21 April... 81.99 May 81.78 June 82.80 July 82.39 August 82.80 September 82.99 October 82.56 November 82.92 December 82.74 1958: January 81.66 February 80.64 March 81.45 April 80.81 May .. 82.04 June 83.10 July... 83.50 August 84.35 September 85.39 October 6 85.17 November 6 ... 86.58 December _ _ . 88.04 $27. 22 24.77 21.28 16.21 16.43 18.87 21.52 24.04 26.91 24.01 26. 50 28.44 34.04 42.73 49.30 52.07 49.05 46.49 52.46 57.11 58.03 63.32 69.47 73.46 77.23 77.18 83.21 86.31 88.66 90.06 89.16 88.75 88.94 88.29 87.85 88.70 88.00 89.06 89. 24 88.75 88.93 88.93 87.14 86.46 87.75 87.30 88.37 89.89 89.83 91.14 92.46 91.83 93.90 95.65 $22. 93 21.84 20.50 17.57 16.89 18.05 19.11 19.94 21.53 21.05 21.78 22.27 24.92 29.13 34.12 37.12 38.29 41.14 46.96 50.61 51.41 54.71 58.46 60.98 63.60 64.74 68.06 71.10 73.51 75.27 72.73 72.91 73.12 72.56 73.13 74.09 74.47 74.26 75.24 74.10 74.11 74.88 73.54 73.15 73.53 73.14 73.91 75. 08 75.66 76.04 77.03 76.83 77.22 78.01 $25. 72 (3) 22.21 (3) 17.69 (33) 13.91 (3) 14.47 () 18.10 $22. 97 24.51 19.58 27.01 22.71 30.14 23.84 29.19 20.80 30.39 23.88 31.70 24.71 35. 14 30.86 41.80 35.02 41.62 48.13 52.18 51.27 53.73 52.25 56.24 58.03 63.30 66.59 72.12 < 68. 85 70.95 63.28 73.73 70. 35 77.79 81.47 88.01 78.09 91.76 85.31 94.12 80.85 96.29 96.26 106. 22 101. 92 110. 53 106. 86 101.47 110.31 98.94 110. 63 112.51 106. 00 109. 58 104. 40 111.74 105. 34 107. 76 106. 65 114.68 108. 49 112.17 108. 56 110.96 110. 48 112.91 111.14 110.66 110.23 102. 18 104. 23 107. 92 106. 45 103. 36 108. 06 100. 62 101.64 96.37 107. 71 90.60 108. 63 93.30 111.08 106. 30 110. 77 97.85 112. 17 105.90 113.40 106. 55 114. 25 107. 76 115.18 107. 87 110.80 (3) (3) (3) (») (38) (33) (33) () (3) (3) $27. 72 (3) (3) 26.11 (3) (3) 26.37 () () 26.76 (33) (33) 28.41 () (3) $30. 03 29.87 (3) 31.74 * 29. 54 () 29.82 $31. 90 32.14 32.47 30.45 32.67 32.51 34.03 32.88 39.34 35. 52 34.14 41.49 39. 37 36.45 42.26 46.36 38.54 43.94 46.32 s 40. 12 47.73 44.29 50.00 51.99 44. 77 55.03 60.11 48.92 55.58 57. 55 62.36 51.78 60.36 64.14 54. 38 64.31 58.26 70.93 67.80 74.30 61.22 65. 02 71.69 76. 33 78.74 68.46 73.93 77.14 82.12 72.07 73.47 81.20 88.40 94.24 84.42 76.05 101. 09 78.72 87.02 82.81 93.08 73.92 82.81 94.53 74.88 83.01 89.98 74.30 92.82 74.69 82.80 83.81 94.55 75.66 93.07 76.44 85.03 85.24 95.42 76.63 85.24 75.47 95.60 93.71 86.05 75.66 94.95 77.22 85.63 98.16 85.60 79.20 97.92 86.46 77.59 85.41 76.38 99.01 101. 26 85.57 76.78 96.24 85.79 76.36 85.14 98.95 76.53 100.12 77.11 86.40 87.42 78.31 101. 19 103. 28 79.31 88.26 87.64 100. 94 79.90 81.12 103. 39 88.66 103. 52 81.51 87. 85 87.82 82.37 (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (33) (3) (3) () (3) (33) (3) (3) () $23. 14 23.50 24.42 25.73 27.36 29. 53 31.55 36.35 40.66 43.85 45.93 47.63 50.65 52.67 54.88 56.70 58.50 60.60 62.48 64.60 61.50 61.34 61.18 61.40 62.32 63.41 64.46 64.08 63.63 62.79 62.25 62.43 63.50 63.50 63.13 63.50 63.88 64.94 66.18 66.18 64.98 64.81 64.64 (3) Laundries (3) (33) () (3) (3) $14. 89 15.42 16.14 16.83 17.22 17.64 17.93 18.69 20.34 23.08 25.95 27.73 30.20 32.71 34.23 34.98 35.47 37.81 38.63 39.69 40.10 40.70 42.32 43.27 44.41 42.59 42.59 42.69 43.20 43.93 44.04 43.38 43.34 43.96 43.73 43.29 43.85 43.68 43.23 43.68 44.30 44. 75 45.37 45.26 44.80 44.80 44.92 44.35 (») 1 Averages are based upon monthly data (exclusive of switching and terminal companies) summarized in the M-300 report by the ICC and relate to all employees who received pay during the month, except executives, officials, and staff assistants (ICC group I). Beginning September 1949, data reflect a wage rate increase and reduction in the basic workweek from 48 to 40 hours. 2 Prior to April 1945, data relate to all employees except executives; from April 1945 to May 1949, mainly to employees subject to the Fair Labor Standards Act; and beginning June 1949, to nonsupervisory employees only. 3 Not available. 4 Data beginning with January of year noted are not comparable with those for earlier periods. 5 Nine-month average, April throughi December, Dec " * ' started in April 1945. " because of" new series 9 Preliminary. NOTE.—Data are for production workers in manufacturing and mining, construction workers in building construction, and for nonsupervisory employees in other industries (except as noted). Data are for payroll periods ending nearest the 15th of the month. The annual figures for 1958 are simple arithmetic averages of the monthly figures shown and are not strictly comparable with the averages for earlier years, which have been weighted by data on man-hours. Source: Department of Labor. 168 TABLE D-26.—Average weekly hours and hourly earnings, gross and excluding overtime, in manufacturing industries, 1939-58 All manufacturing industries Period Average weekly hours Gross 37.7 1940 1941 1942... 1943 1944 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 43.4 0) 40.4 0) 0) 38.1 40.6 42.9 44.9 45.2 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 40.4 40.1 39.2 1950 1951 1952.. 1953 1954 Average hourly earnings Average weekly hours Average hourly earnings Nondurable goods manufacturing industries Average weekly hours Average hourly earnings ExExExExExExcludcludcludcludcludcluding Gross ing Gross ing Gross ing Gross ing Gross ing overoveroveroveroverovertime time time time time time 1939 _ Durable goods manufacturing industries $0. 633 0) .661 0) .729 $0. 702 .853 .805 .961 .894 1.019 .947 39.3 42.1 45.1 46.6 46.6 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 38.0 0) 37.4 0) .724 0) .808 $0. 770 .947 .881 1.059 .976 1.117 1.029 37.0 38.9 40.3 42.5 43.1 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) $0. 698 $0. 582 0) .602 0) .640 $0. 625 .723 .698 .803 .763 .861 .814 0) 0) 0) .023 .086 .237 .350 .401 2.963 1.051 1.198 1.310 1.367 44.1 40.2 40.6 40.5 39.5 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 1.111 21.042 1.156 1.122 1.292 1.250 1.410 1.366 1.469 1.434 42.3 40.5 40.1 39.6 38.8 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) .904 1.015 1.171 1.278 1.325 2.858 .981 1.133 1.241 1.292 40.5 40.7 40.7 40.5 39.7 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) .465 .59 .67 .77 .81 .415 .53 .61 .71 .76 41.2 41.6 41.5 41.3 40.2 0) 0) 0) 0) (0 1. 537 1.67 1.77 1.87 1.92 1.480 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.86 39.7 39.5 39.6 39.5 39.0 (0 (0 0) 0) 0) 1.378 1.48 1.54 1.61 1.66 .337 .43 .49 .56 .61 1955 1956 1957 19583 40.7 40.4 39.8 39.2 0) 37.6 37.4 37.2 1.88 1.98 2.07 2.13 .82 .91 2.01 2.07 41.4 41.1 40.3 39.5 0) 38.1 37.9 37.6 2.01 2.10 2.20 2.28 1.93 2.03 2.14 2.22 39.8 39.5 39.1 38.8 0) 37.0 36.7 36.6 1.71 1.80 1.88 1.94 .66 .75 .83 .89 1957: January February March April May ... June 40.2 40.2 40.1 39.8 39.7 40.0 37.6 37.7 37.6 37.5 37.5 37.6 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.06 2.06 2.07 1.98 1.99 1.99 2.00 2.00 2.01 40.9 40.9 40.8 40.5 40.3 40.5 38.0 38.2 38.2 38.1 38.1 38.1 2.18 2.17 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.19 2.10 2.11 2.11 2.12 2.12 2.13 39.1 39.2 39.1 38.8 38.9 39.2 36.8 36.9 36.8 36.6 36.7 36.8 1.86 1.86 1.87 1.87 1.88 1.89 .81 .81 .81 .82 .83 .83 39.8 40.0 39.9 39.5 39.3 39.4 37.4 37.6 37.4 37.2 37.0 37.4 2.07 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.11 2.10 2.01 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.05 2.05 40.0 40.3 40.2 39.8 39.7 39.7 37.7 38.0 37.7 37.5 37.5 37.8 2.20 2.21 2.22 2.23 2.24 2.24 2.14 2.14 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.19 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.0 38.8 39.0 36.9 37.0 37.0 36.6 36.4 36.8 1.89 1.88 1.90 1.90 1.91 1.92 .83 .82 .83 .84 .86 .86 June 38.7 38.4 38.6 38.3 38.7 39.2 37.0 36.8 37.0 36.8 37. Oj 37.3 2.11 2.10 2.11 2.11 2.12 2.12 2.06 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 38.9 38.6 39.0 38.8 39.1 39.6 37.3 37.1 37.5 37.4 37.6 37.9 2.24 2.24 2.25 2.25 2.26 2.27 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.22 38.3 38.1 38.1 37.7 38.1 38.7 36.4 36.2 36.2 36.0 36.2 36.6 1.92 1.92 1.93 1.94 1.94 1.94 .88 .87 .88 .89 .89 .89 July August . September October November 3 December 3 39.2 39.6 39 9 39.8 39.9 40.2 37.3 37.3 37.5 37.4 2.13 2.13 2.14 2.14 3 7 . 4 ; 2.17 37.5J 2.19 2.08 2.07 2.08 2.08 2.11 39.4 39.8 40.2 40.1 40.3 40.7 37.6 37.7 37.9 37.7 37.8 38.0 2.28 2.29 2.30 2.29 2.33 2.35 2.23 2.23 2.24 2.23 2.26 39.0 39.4 39.5 39.4 39.4 39.6 36.8 37.0 36.9 36.9 36.9 37.0 1.94 1.93 1.95 1.95 1.96 1.97 .89 .88 .89 .89 .90 0) July August September October.. _ November December 1958: January February March. . April May 0) 0) 1 Not available. Eleven-month average; August 1945 excluded because of VJ Day holiday period. Preliminary. NOTE.—Data relate to production workers and are for payroll periods ending nearest the 15th of the month. The annual figures for 1958 are simple arithmetic averages of the monthly figures shown and are not strictly comparable with the averages for earlier years, which have been weighted by data on employment (in the case of hours) and man-hours (in the case of earnings). Source: Department of Labor. 2 3 169 TABLE D-27.—Average weekly earnings, gross and net spendable, in manufacturing industries, in current and 7958 prices, 1939-58 Average net spendable weekly earnings 2 Average gross weekly earnings Period Current prices 1939-. 1958 prices 1 Worker with no dependents Current prices 1958 prices 1 Worker with three dependents Current prices 1958 prices 1 $23. 86 $49.60 $23.58 $49. 02 $23.62 $49.11 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 25.20 29.58 36.65 43.14 46.08 51.96 58.00 64.87 71.90 75.67 24.69 28.05 31.77 36.01 38.29 50.91 55.00 56.23 60.02 62.87 24.95 29.28 36.28 41.39 44.06 51.44 57.41 64.21 68.98 72.35 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 . 44.39 43.82 49.97 54.14 54.92 71.25 64.82 64.56 64.99 66.57 36.97 37.72 42.76 47.43 48.09 59.34 55.80 55.25 56.94 58.29 42.74 43.20 48.24 53.17 53.83 68.60 63.91 62.33 63.83 65.25 1950 1951. _ 1952 1953 1954 59.33 64.71 67.97 71.69 71.86 71.22 71.90 73.88 77 34 77.27 51.09 54.04 55.66 58.54 59.55 61.33 60.04 60.50 63.15 64.03 57.21 61.28 63.62 66.58 66.78 68.68 68.09 69.15 71.82 71.81 76.52 79.99 82 39 83.50 82.46 84.92 84.59 83.50 63.15 65.86 67.57 68.46 68.05 69.92 69.37 68.46 70.45 73.22 74.97 75.88 75.92 77.73 76.97 75.88 June 82.41 82.41 82.21 81.99 81.78 82.80 86.02 85.67 85.28 84.79 84.40 85.01 67.58 67.58 67.42 67.25 67.08 67.90 70.54 70.25 69.94 69.54 69.23 69.71 74.99 74.99 74.82 74.64 74.47 75.31 78.28 77.95 77.61 77.19 76. 85 77.32 July August September. October November December . 82.39 82.80 82.99 82.56 82.92 82.74 84.16 84.40 84.60 84.16 84.18 84.00 67.57 67.90 68.05 67.70 67.99 67.85 69.02 69.22 69.37 69.01 69.03 68.88 74.97 75.31 75.46 75.11 75.40 75.26 76.58 76.77 76.92 76.56 76.55 76.41 81.66 80.64 81.45 80.81 82.04 83.10 82.40 81.21 81.53 80.73 81.88 82.93 66.98 66.17 66.81 66.30 67.29 68.14 67.59 66.64 66.88 66.23 67.16 68.00 74.37 73.54 74.20 73.67 74.68 75.55 75.05 74.06 74.27 73.60 74.53 75.40 83.50 84.35 85.39 85. 17 86.58 88.04 83.17 84.18 85. 22 85.00 86.24 (4) 68.46 69.14 69.97 69.80 70.93 72.10 68.19 69.00 69.83 69.66 70.65 (4) 75.88 76.58 77.43 77.25 78.41 79.60 75.58 76.43 77.28 77. 10 78.10 (4) 1955..1956 1957 1958 . 3 1957: January February March.. ... _ _ _ _ _ April May 1958: January February March April. . May June. . July August September October November 3 December 3 .__ . ___ 1 Estimates in current prices divided by the consumer price index on a 1958 base (using 11-month average). -3 Average gross weekly earnings less social security and income taxes. Preliminary. 4 Not available. NOTE.—Data relate to production workers and are for payroll periods ending nearest the 15th of the month. The annual figures for 1958 are simple arithmetic averages of the monthly figures shown and are not strictly comparable with the averages for earlier years, which have been weighted by data on man-hours. Source: Department of Labor. 170 TABLE D-28.—Labor turnover rates in manufacturing industries, 7930-58 [Rates per 100 employees] Separation rates Period Total 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 5.0 4.0 4.4 3.8 4.1 1935 1936. 1937 1938 1939 3.6 3.4 4.4 4.1 3.1 1940 1941... 1942 1943 1944... Quit i Layoff Discharge, military, and miscellaneous i Accession rates 3.0 2.9 3.5 2.7 3.0 .2 .2 .2 .2 3.1 3.1 3.3 5.4 4.7 .9 1.1 1.3 .6 2.5 2.1 3.0 3.4 2.2 .2 .2 .2 .1 .1 4.2 4.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 3.4 3.9 6.5 7.3 6.8 .9 2.0 3.8 5.2 5.1 2.2 1.3 1.1 .6 .6 .3 .7 1.7 1.5 1.1 4.4 5.4 7.6 7.5 6.1 1945 1946 1947... 1948... 1949 6.1 4.8 4.6 4.3 5.1 4.3 3.4 2.8 1.5 2.3 1.2 1.0 1.3 2.4 .9 .6 .5 .5 .3 6.3 6.7 5.1 4.4 3.5 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 3.5 4.4 4.1 4.3 3.5 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.9 4.4 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.0 1955 1956 1957 19582 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.4 3.7 3.4 2.9 3.1 1957: January February March April May June 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.1 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.9 3.1 4.0 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.8 1.4 1.9 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.2 1.7 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.4 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.8 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 3.3 3.9 4.0 3.4 2.7 July August September... October November. _. December 1958: January February March April May June July August September... October Novembers.. 5.0 3.9 4.2 4.1 3.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.7 1.2 1.5 1.1 1 Prior to 1940, military and miscellaneous separations are included with quits. 2 January-November average. 3 Preliminary. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to total because of rounding. Source: Department of Labor. 171 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY TABLE D-29.—Industrial production indexes, 1929-58 [1947-49=100] Industrial production Manufactures Durable Period 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 i Total 59 49 40 31 37 40 47 56 61 48 58 67 87 106 127 125 107 90 100 104 97 112 120 124 134 125 139 143 143 134 Pri- Fabricated Total Total mary met- metal prodals ucts 58 48 39 30 36 39 46 55 60 46 57 66 88 110 133 130 110 90 100 103 97 113 121 125 136 127 140 144 145 136 60 45 31 19 24 30 38 49 55 35 49 63 91 126 162 159 123 86 101 104 95 116 128 136 153 137 155 159 160 142 103 107 90 115 126 116 132 108 140 138 131 104 103 104 93 115 122 121 136 123 134 135 139 128 Nonelectrical machinery 104 106 90 105 126 136 143 125 135 153 150 128 FurClay, niture glass, Elec- Trans- Instruand ments and misceltrical porta- and re- lum- lanetion lated machin- equip- prod- ber ous ery ment ucts prod- manucts ufactures 101 101 98 131 138 167 194 177 194 207 204 179 96 102 102 120 135 154 189 175 203 199 213 188 100 105 95 114 128 142 155 140 149 166 172 164 100 105 95 115 121 118 125 123 138 140 133 129 100 104 95 117 116 118 131 121 132 135 132 127 Seasonally adjusted 1957: January February .. March April May „. June 145 146 145 144 144 145 147 147 147 145 145 147 163 164 163 160 160 163 143 143 137 134 132 132 137 138 138 138 138 139 154 155 155 152 152 153 206 206 204 196 199 207 218 222 219 216 216 220 173 174 173 172 173 173 133 134 134 134 136 140 131 129 132 132 132 133 July August September October November December 145 145 144 142 139 135 147 147 146 143 141 137 162 163 160 156 154 146 134 136 131 128 121 107 141 140 139 137 141 135 152 151 150 148 143 137 215 215 209 197 203 194 216 216 212 208 203 194 173 174 173 170 170 168 133 136 134 131 128 124 133 135 135 132 129 125 1958' January February .. March April May June. ... _ . 133 130 128 126 128 132 135 131 129 128 130 134 142 137 135 131 134 139 100 95 91 86 91 103 129 124 122 118 120 125 130 127 126 122 122 125 192 177 170 166 167 171 191 185 183 178 182 185 166 163 160 159 158 160 125 120 120 120 124 129 123 120 121 121 122 126 July August September October November December ' 134 136 137 138 141 142 136 138 139 140 144 144 141 144 145 146 152 152 102 109 113 122 123 123 129 132 135 133 136 137 125 126 129 130 133 133 181 188 186 180 182 189 185 186 178 183 205 203 162 162 166 169 172 175 134 135 136 133 138 137 129 130 132 134 134 132 See footnotes at end of table, p. 173. 172 TABLE D-29.—Industrial production indexes, 1929-58—Continued [1947-49=100] ._ Industrial production j Output of consumer durables Manufactures Nondurable Period ChemTex- Rubical Foods, Minber Paper and tiles bever- erals and and Total and leather print- petro- ages, leum and toaping parel prodprod- bacco ucts ucts 1929 56 68 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 51 48 42 48 49 59 51 42 48 51 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 55 61 64 57 66 55 63 71 62 68 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 69 84 93 103 99 76 81 84 87 93 _. 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 Major Other conTotal Autos household sumer duragoods bles 96 95 99 102 99 99 103 97 106 101 93 96 103 101 97 103 100 101 100 100 92 91 100 106 94 98 102 101 85 93 122 99 105 96 109 105 86 111 114 114 118 116 110 106 105 107 100 110 105 107 113 104 114 118 118 125 125 118 132 133 142 142 103 105 106 107 106 105 115 114 116 111 133 114 105 127 116 159 127 103 146 131 143 118 115 132 122 95 96 95 102 95 1955 1956 1957 1958 ' 126 129 130 130 109 108 105 104 122 117 118 113 137 145 148 148 159 167 172 170 109 112 112 115 122 129 128 117 147 131 130 113 190 138 146 101 144 144 132 (2) 106 111 111 110 1957: January February March April May. Tune 130 131 131 130 131 131 105 105 106 106 106 106 118 121 124 118 118 119 148 147 147 146 148 148 173 172 171 171 173 172 111 113 114 111 112 113 131 132 132 131 130 127 132 135 132 123 126 134 154 156 149 136 144 157 130 135 132 123 127 134 113 114 114 110 109 110 131 132 131 130 128 127 107 106 106 104 101 97 119 122 120 117 116 108 146 149 149 149 149 146 174 175 174 173 171 169 113 112 113 111 110 113 128 1 129 129 127 123 123 132 135 134 129 128 119 147 154 150 143 142 127 138 139 137 134 134 124 111 112 114 112 110 107 127 125 124 125 126 129 97 97 95 98 99 102 108 105 106 102 104 111 146 144 142 143 143 146 168 164 163 164 165 168 114 114 113 113 114 116 121 118 112 109 109 112 113 110 104 97 105 111 117 107 92 81 96 99 118 117 114 107 113 123 105 107 108 106 105 111 132 133 133 134 135 136 107 108 109 110 112 112 114 116 119 119 125 125 148 150 150 153 152 153 171 174 174 175 176 178 116 116 116 116 116 116 116 120 123 122 123 123 114 115 103 108 134 137 99 95 56 67 .139 143 133 137 138 141 150 (2) 111 112 113 114 114 116 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 _. ... Seasonally adjusted July. August -_.September October . November December 1958: January ... February March April._ May _ . June July August September October November _. December ' 1 Preliminary. 2 Xot available. NOTE.—Detail not available prior to 1947. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 173 TABLE D—30.—Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, 1939 and 1945-59 [Billions of dollars] Manufactur ing Total i Period Total Transportation Dura- Non- Mining ble durable goods goods Railroad Other Public utilities Commercial and other 2 1939 5.51 1.94 0.76 1.19 0.33 0.28 0.36 0.52 2.08 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 8.69 14.85 20.61 22.06 19.28 3.98 6.79 8.70 9.13 7.15 1.59 3.11 3.41 3.48 2.59 2.39 3.68 5.30 5.65 4.56 .38 .43 .69 .88 .79 :55 .58 .89 1.32 1.35 .57 .92 1.30 1.28 .89 .50 .79 1.54 2.54 3.12 2.70 5.33 7.49 6.90 5.98 20.60 25.64 26.49 28.32 26.83 7.49 10.85 11.63 11.91 11.04 3.14 5.17 5.61 5.65 5.09 4.36 5.68 6.02 6.26 5.95 .71 .93 .98 .99 .98 1.11 1.47 1.40 1.31 .85 1.21 1.49 1.50 1.56 1.51 3.31 3.66 3.89 4.55 4.22 6.78 7.24 7.09 8.00 8.23 28.70 35.08 36.96 30.53 11.44 14.95 15.96 11.50 5.44 7.62 8.02 5.54 6.00 7.33 7.94 5.96 .96 1.24 1.24 .92 .92 1.23 1.40 .76 1.60 1.71 1.77 1.50 4.31 4.90 6.20 6.10 9.47 11.05 10.40 9.74 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 3 1957 33 4 1958 . - Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956' First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter.. . 32.82 34.49 35.87 36.46 13.45 14.65 15.78 15.81 6.57 7.38 8.20 8.21 6.88 7.27 7.58 7.60 1.13 1.28 1.26 1.28 1.25 1.22 1.20 1.23 1.65 1.63 1.79 1.76 4.56 4.61 5.08 5.27 10.78 11.10 10. 76 11.11 1957- First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 36.89 37.03 37.75 36.23 16.12 16.25 16.37 15.27 8.09 8.31 8.23 7.57 8.03 7.948.14 7.70 1.35 1.28 1.24 1.15 1.42 1.35 1.54 1.26 1.52 1.82 1.81 1.91 5.72 5.93 6.64 6.43 10.76 10.40 10.15 10.21 32.41 30.32 29.61 29.93 13.20 11.53 10.86 10.79 6.58 5.57 5.16 5.11 6.62 5.96 5.70 5.68 1.00 .92 .88 .91 1.02 .77 .63 .59 1.69 1.40 1.29 1.64 5.87 5.97 6.10 6.32 9.63 9.73 9.85 9.68 30. 51 11.06 5.35 5.71 .84 .54 1.72 6.41 9.94 1958' First quarter .Second quarter Third quarter 4 Fourth quarter 1959: First quarter * .. 1 2 Excludes agriculture. Commercial and other includes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction. 3 Annual total is the sum of unadjusted quarterly expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures. See footnote 4. 4 Estimates for fourth quarter 1958 and first quarter 1959 based on anticipated capital expenditures reported by business between late October and early December 1958. The quarterly anticipations include adjustments, when necessary, for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data. NOTE.—These figures do not agree precisely with the plant and equipment expenditures included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce. The main difference lies in the inclusion in the gross national product of investment by farmers, professionals, and institutions, and of certain outlays charged to current account. This series is not available for years prior to 1939 and for 1940 to 1944. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce. 174 TABLE D-31.—New construction activity, 1929-58 [Value put in place, millions of dollars] Private construction Total new construction Period Resi- Nonresid ential building and other construction dential Total i building Com- 2 Indus(nonPublic Otber 3 Total mercial farm) trial utility Public construction 1929 . 10. 793 8,307 3, 625 4,682 1,135 949 1.578 1,020 2,486 1930 1931 1932 1933_ . 1934 8,741 6, 427 3,538 2,879 3,720 5,883 3,768 1,676 1,231 1,509 2,075 1,565 630 470 625 3,808 2,203 1,046 761 884 893 454 223 130 173 532 2?1 74 176 191 1,527 946 467 261 326 856 582 282 194 194 2,858 2,659 1,862 1,648 2,211 1935 1936 1937 _. _ 1938 1939 4,232 6,497 6, 999 6, 980 8,198 1,999 2,981 3,903 3,560 4,389 1,010 1,565 1,875 1,990 2,680 989 1,416 2,028 1,570 1,709 211 290 387 285 292 158 266 492 232 254 363 518 705 605 683 257 342 444 448 480 2.233 3, 516 3,096 3,420 3,809 8,682 11,957 14, 075 8, 301 5,259 5,054 6,206 3,415 1,979 2,186 2,985 3,510 1,715 885 815 2,069 2.696 1I700 1,094 1,371 348 409 155 33 56 442 801 346 156 208 771 872 786 570 725 508 614 413 335 382 3, 628 5, 751 10, 660 6,322 3,073 5,809 12, 737 17, 915 23, 222 24, 163 3,411 10, 375 14, 481 18, 395 17, 759 1,276 4,752 7,535 10, 122 9,642 2,135 5,623 6, 946 8,273 8,117 203 1,132 856 1,253 1,027 642 1,689 1,702 1,397 972 827 1,374 2,338 3,043 3,323 463 1,428 2,050 2,580 2,795 2,398 2, 362 3,434 4,827 6, 404 29, 955 32, 739 34, 750 37,118 39, 601 22, 954 23, 320 23, 849 25, 724 27, 679 14, 100 12, 529 12, 842 13, 777 15, 379 8,854 10, 791 11, 007 11, 947 12, 300 1,288 1,371 1,137 1,791 2,212 1,062 2,117 2,320 2,229 2,030 3,330 3,729 4,003 4,416 4,284 3,174 3,574 3, 547 3,511 3,774 7,001 9,419 10, 901 11,394 11, 922 44, 581 46,292 48, 115 48, 980 32, 620 33, 287 33, 988 33, 947 18, 705 17, 677 17, 019 17, 884 13, 915 15, 610 16, 969 16, 063 3,218 3,631 3, 564 3,561 2,399 3,084 3,557 2,443 4,543 5,113 5,624 5, 554 3,755 3, 782 4,224 4,505 11,961 13,005 14, 127 15, 033 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 .. _ 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 --- - _ --_ __ 1955 1956 1957 1958 4 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1957- January February March April May June. Julv August September.. _ October November. __ December 1958: January .. February March. April _ May June July August September _ _ October Xovember_ _ December 4 _ 48, 204 47, 436 47, 832 47, 700 47, 688 47, 688 33,360 33, 444 33, 720 33, 588 33, 744 33, 732 17, 280 17, 088 17, 088 16, 656 16, 320 16, 476 16, 080 16, 356 16, 632 16, 932 17,424 17, 256 3,504 3, 396 3, 492 3, 528 3, 636 3, 624 3,456 3, 588 3, 672 3,744 3, 780 3, 732 5,112 5,280 5, 316 5, 436 5,772 5, 640 4,008 4,092 4,152 4,224 4, 236 4,260 14, 844 13, 992 14,112 14,112 13, 944 13, 956 46, 860 48, 048 48, 576 49, 584 49, 224 50, 100 33, 588 34, 092 34, 284 34, 776 34. 824 34, 584 16, 596 16, 944 17,184 17, 532 17, 664 17, 532 16,992 17, 148 17, 100 17, 244 17, 160 17, 052 3,504 3,552 3, 576 3. 672 3, 660 3, 648 3, 600 3, 612 3, 480 3, 396 3, 372 3,264 5, 772 5, 688 5,748 5,880 5,820 5, 796 4, 116 4,296 4,296 4,296 4, 308 4,344 13, 272 13, 956 14, 292 14, 808 14, 400 15, 516 48, 816 48, 048 47, 592 46, 572 46, 548 47, 148 33,960 33, 552 33, 084 32, 388 32, 352 32, 700 17, 340 17, 220 16, 764 16, 212 16, 176 16, 632 16,620 16, 332 16, 320 16, 176 16, 176 16, 068 3, 456 3, 372 3, 456 3, 528 3, 624 3,732 3, 228 3, 024 2, 880 2, 664 2,520 2, 340 5, 628 5, 592 5, 652 5, 616 5, 592 5, 508 4,308 4, 344 4,332 4, 368 4, 440 4,488 14, 856 14, 496 14, 508 14, 184 14, 196 14, 448 47, 772 48, 492 49, 428 51, 348 52, 536 53, 676 33,120 33, 588 34, 164 35, 328 36, 180 36, 588 17, 208 17,952 18, 480 19, 476 20,184 20, 580 15,912 15, 636 15, 684 15,852 15, 996 16, 008 3, 696 3,528 3, 492 3. 552 3, 624 3, 660 2,244 2,148 2,064 2, 064 2, 100 2,076 5, 436 5,436 5,520 5, 568 5,568 5, 604 4, 536 4,524 4,608 4, 668 4, 704 4, 668 14, 652 14, 904 15, 264 16, 020 16,356 17,088 1 Excludes construction expenditures for crude petroleum and natural gas drilling, and therefore does not agree with the new construction expenditures included in the gross national product. (Table D-l). 2 Office buildings, warehouses, stores, restaurants, and garages. 34 Includes farm, institutional, and all other. Preliminary. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 175 TABLE D-32.—New public construction activity, 1929-58 [Value put in place, millions of dollars] Total new public construction * Major types of new public construction Fed eral Period All State and public sources Direct Federal local aid Highway Sewer Conand Hoswater servapital tion Educa- and and tional institu- miscel- and detional laneous public velopment service Military facilities All other public 2 1929 2,486 155 80 2,251 1,266 389 101 404 115 19 192 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 2,858 2,659 1,862 1,648 2,211 209 271 333 516 626 104 235 111 286 721 2,545 2,153 1,418 846 864 1,516 1,355 958 847 1,000 364 285 130 52 148 118 110 83 49 51 500 479 291 160 228 137 156 150 359 518 29 40 34 36 47 194 234 216 145 219 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 2,233 3,516 3,096 3,420 3,809 814 797 776 717 759 567 1,566 1,117 1,320 1,377 852 1,153 1,203 1,383 1,673 845 1,362 1,226 1,421 1,381 153 366 253 311 468 38 74 73 97 127 246 509 445 492 507 700 658 605 551 570 37 29 37 62 125 214 518 457 486 631 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 3,628 5,751 10, 660 6,322 3,073 1,182 3,751 9,313 5,609 2,505 946 697 475 268 126 1,500 1,303 872 445 442 1,302 1,066 734 446 362 156 158 128 63 41 54 42 35 44 58 469 393 254 156 125 528 500 357 285 163 385 1,620 5,016 2,550 837 734 1,972 4,136 2,778 1,487 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 2,398 2.362 3,434 4,827 6,404 1,737 870 840 1,177 1,488 99 244 409 417 461 562 1,248 2,185 3,233 4,455 398 895 1,451 1,774 2,131 59 101 287 618 934 85 85 85 223 477 152 278 492 699 803 130 260 424 670 852 690 188 204 158 137 884 555 491 685 1,070 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 7,001 9,419 10, 901 11, 394 11, 922 1,625 2,982 4,186 4,151 3,445 465 479 619 700 709 4,911 5,958 6,096 6,543 7,768 2,272 2,518 2,820 3,160 3,870 1,133 1,513 1,619 1,714 2,134 496 528 473 365 360 819 959 958 1,050 1,171 942 912 900 892 773 177 887 1,388 1,307 1,030 1,162 2,102 2,743 2,906 2,584 1955 1956 1957 19583 11, 961 13, 005 14, 127 15, 033 2,800 2,772 3,018 3,152 758 878 1,363 2,168 8,403 9,355 9,746 9,713 4,050 4,655 4,971 5,350 2,442 2, 556 2, 825 2,877 322 298 350 401 1,318 1,659 1,737 1,838 701 826 971 1,004 1,313 1, 395 1,322 1,235 1,815 1,616 1,951 2,328 1 For expenditures classified by ownership, combine ''Federal aid" and "State and local" columns to obtain State and local ownership. "Direct" column stands as it is for Federal ownership. 2 Includes nonresidential building other than educational and hospital and institutional (industrial, commercial, public administration, social and recreational, and miscellaneous), public residential buildings, and publicly owned parks and playgrounds, memorials, etc. 3 Preliminary. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 176 TABLE D-33.—Housing starts and applications for financing, 1929-58 [Thousands of units] Proposed home construction 2 New nonfarm housing starts Privately financed Period Total 19293 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934. - . .. Publicly financed Government programs Total ... 509.0 509 0 __ 330.0 254.0 134 0 93.0 126. 0 330 0 254 0 134.0 93.0 126.0 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 . . Total i FHAi VA Private, seasonFHA VA apally ad- applicapraisal justed tions requests annual rates 221. 0 319.0 336.0 406.0 515. 0 5.3 14.8 3.6 6.7 56.6 215.7 304.2 332.4 399.3 458. 4 14.0 49.4 60.0 118.7 158.1 14.0 49.4 60.0 118.7 158.1 *20.6 47.8 49 8 131.1 179.8 602. 6 706.1 356.0 191.0 141.8 73.0 86.6 54.8 7.3 3.1 529.6 619.5 301.2 183.7 138.7 180.1 220.4 165.7 146.2 93.3 180.1 220.4 165.7 146.2 93 3 231.2 288. 5 238. 5 144 4 62.9 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 209.3 670.5 849.0 931.6 1. 025. 1 1.2 8.0 3.4 18.1 36.3 208.1 662.5 845.6 913.5 988.8 (55) ( 5) (5) ( 5) () 41.2 69.0 229.0 294.1 363.8 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 7 1958 1957' January February March. April May .Tune July August September _. . October November December 1958: January-- _. . February March April May June July August. . September October November December < _ 1, 396. 0 1, 091. 3 1, 127. 0 1, 103. 8 1,220.4 1, 328. 9 1,118.1 1,041.9 1, 197. 7 64.2 65.8 87.0 93.7 103. 0 99.9 97.8 100. 0 91.9 97.0 78.2 63.4 67.9 66. 1 81.4 99.1 108. 5 112.9 112.8 124.0 121.0 ' 111.0 " 102. 0 91.0 43.8 71.2 58.5 35.5 18.7 19.4 24 2 49.' 1 67.1 4. 1 2.7 7.7 2.3 6.1 5.4 3.9 3.2 1.7 8.6 2.5 .9 5.0 5.1 4.1 4.9 7.2 11.6 4.2 9.4 10.1 •2.0 '2.0 1.5 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 . _. _ _ 1, 352. 2 1, 020. 1 1,068.5 1, 068. 3 1, 201. 7 1, 309. 5 1, 093. 9 992.8 1,130.6 60.1 63.1 79.3 91.4 96.9 94.5 93.9 96.8 90.2 88.4 75.7 62.5 62.9 61.0 77.3 94.2 ! 101.3 101. 3 108.6 114.6 110.9 7 109. 0 7 100. 0 89.5 686.7 412.2 421.2 408.5 583.3 669.6 460.0 296.7 397.6 19.7 19.2 22.7 25.6 27.0 28.3 28.0 29.3 28.2 28.4 21.4 18.9 17.4 14.1 19.6 27.4 32.0 36. 5 40.3 43.6 46.3 49.4 36.8 34.2 (55) ( 5) () (55) () 486.7 6 200. 0 263.5 148.6 279.9 141.3 156.5 252. 0 276. 3 307.0 276. 7 392.9 189.3 270.7 168.4 128.3 295.4 102.2 7.7 12.0 9.3 9.9 11.3 11.4 12.1 13.5 14.9 12.0 15.3 13.0 15.7 12.3 17.7 11.6 16.4 11.8 18.7 9.7 6.4 15.0 14.2 4.6 13.3 4. 1 11.3 2.8 16.5 3. 1 22.7 4.8 26.0 6.0 8.5 28.0 10.6 29.7 30.5 13.1 31.9 14.3 34.7 14.7 25.8 11.0 9.2 25.0 962 935 933 962 994 995 1,015 1,056 1,012 1,020 1,009 1,000 1,020 915 918 983 1,039 1,057 1,174 1,228 1,255 7 1,260 ' 1,330 1,430 56.6 121.7 286.4 293.2 327.0 (55) ( 5) (5) ( 5) () 397.7 192.8 267.9 253.7 338.6 306.2 197.7 198.8 341.7 10.5 12.1 16.2 16.8 16.9 16.6 18.4 22.3 20.4 20.2 14.7 13.6 17.3 20.6 25.0 31.6 34.6 33.4 31.8 33.6 36.8 31.8 22.3 23.0 (5) 164.4 226.3 251.4 535.4 620.8 401. 5 159.4 234.2 18.9 20.2 19.5 19.4 16.6 13.7 14.0 14.5 8.9 6.4 3.7 3.5 5.2 5.3 8.4 24. g 29.5 28.4 28. t 28., 26.' 19.1 is.: 14. i 1 Excludes armed forces housing in 1956 (2,567 units); 1957 (18,573 units); and 1958 (23,744 units). 2 Units in mortgage applications for new home construction. 3 The number of starts for the years 1920-28, respectively, was as follows: 247,000; 449,000; 716,000; 871,000; 893,000; 937,000; 849,000; 810,000; and 753,000. 4 FHA program approved in June 1934; all 1934 activity included in 1935. 5 Not available. 6 Partly estimated. 7 Preliminary. Sources: Department of Labor, Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and Veterans Administration (VA). TABLE D-34.—Sales and inventories in manufacturing and trade., 1939-58 [Amounts in billions of dollars] Total manufacturing and trade 1 M anuf actur ing Wholesale trade J Retail trade ' Period 2 InvenInvenInven4 Sales2 Inventories 3 Ratio* Sales 2 tories 3 Ratio* Sales 2 tories 3 Ratio* Sales tories 3 Ratio 1939 10.8 20.1 1.77 5.1 11.5 2.11 2.2 3.1 1.34 3.5 5.5 1.53 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 12.1 15.8 18.6 21.9 23.8 22.2 28.8 31.1 31.3 31.1 1.72 1.58 .66 .40 .33 5.9 8.2 10.4 12.8 13.8 12.8 17.0 19.3 20.1 19.5 2.06 1.78 1.77 1.51 1.45 2.4 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 3.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.9 1.30 1.20 1.19 .97 .94 3.9 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.9 6.1 7.8 8.0 7.6 7.6 1.49 1.48 1.76 1.43 1.31 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 23.9 27.2 33.2 - - 36.1 34.5 30.9 42.9 50.5 55.4 51.8 .30 .33 .43 .48 .56 12.9 12.6 15.9 17.6 16.4 18.4 24.5 28.9 31.7 28.9 1.48 1.66 1.71 1.72 1.86 4.5 6.0 7.3 7.5 7.2 4.6 6.6 7.6 7.9 7.6 .91 .90 1.01 1.01 1.07 6.5 8.5 10.0 10.9 10.9 7.9 11.9 14.1 15.8 15.3 1.21 1.13 1.27 1.40 1.43 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 39.7 44.7 45.9 48.4 47.4 62.8 73.8 75.4 78.6 75.5 .39 .58 .61 .61 .62 19.3 22.3 22.8 24.5 23.5 34.3 42.8 43.8 45.4 43.0 1.57 1.77 1.90 1.84 1.86 8.4 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.1 9.7 10.0 10.5 10.4 .96 1.05 1.01 1.06 1.07 12.0 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.1 19.3 21.2 21.6 22.7 22.1 1.40 1.65 1.55 1.59 1.59 1955 1956 1957 5 6 1958 52.3 54.8 56.3 53.8 81.7 89.1 90.7 85.1 .49 .56 1.61 1.61 26.3 27.7 28.4 26.2 46.4 52.3 53.5 49.3 1.68 1.79 1.89 1.93 10.6 11.3 11.3 11.0 11.4 13.0 12.7 12.1 1.02 1.08 1.13 1.11 15.3 15.8 16.7 16.6 23.9 23.9 24.5 23.7 1.50 1.50 1.44 1.46 Seasonally adjusted 1957: January February, _ _ March April May June . 57.9 57.4 56.2 56.4 56.8 56.4 89.3 89.6 89.9 90.1 90.6 90.7 1.54 1.56 1.60 1.59 1.59 1.61 30.0 29.5 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.1 52.4 52.9 53.3 53.7 53.9 53.9 1.75 1.78 1.87 1.87 1.88 1.91 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.5 11.4 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.11 1.11 16.3 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.8 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.7 23.9 24.1 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.43 July August September.. October November.. December. _. 57.4 57.0 56.3 55.7 54.7 54.5 91.0 91.3 91.3 91.1 91.0 90.7 1.58 1.60 1.62 1.64 1.66 1.67 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.1 27.2 26.7 54.1 54.2 54.2 54.1 53.9 53.5 1.86 1.89 1.92 1.93 1.98 2.01 11.4 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.9 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 1.12 1.12 1. 15 1.17 1.17 1.17 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.6 16.8 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.2 24.3 24.5 1.42 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.45 1958: January February. _. March April May June 53.8 52.1 51.3 52.1 52.4 53.2 90.0 89.3 88.5 87.6 86.9 86.4 1.68 1.72 1.73 1.69 1.66 1.63 26.4 25.5 24.9 24.9 25.2 25.7 52.9 52.4 52.0 51.5 50.9 50.2 2.02 2.06 2.09 2.07 2.03 1.96 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.7 10.7 10.9 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.1 12.1 1.18 1.20 1.21 1.15 1.14 1.11 16.7 16.1 16.1 16.5 16.6 16.6 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.1 1.46 1.51 1.51 1.46 1.44 1.45 54.0 54.4 54.8 55.6 56.2 85.9 85.4 85.0 84.9 85.1 1.60 1.58 1.56 1.53 1.51 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.6 49.8 49.4 49.3 49.3 49.3 1.90 1.88 1.84 1.82 1.79 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.6 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 1.10 1.09 1.06 1.05 1.04 16.7 16.9 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.5 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.7 1.44 1.42 1.44 1.39 1.39 July August September. . October 6 November December 6. 1 ' 1 The series beginning in 1948 are not comparable with the previous years because of changes in definition for the wholesale series. Beginning in 1951, the estimates of retail sales and inventories are based on a new method cf estimation adopted by the Bureau of the Census. 2 Monthly average shown for year and total for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end nd of of period. 4 Inventory/sales ratio. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of aveiage end of current and previous months' inventories to sales for month. 5 Where December data not available, data for year calculated on basis of no change from November. 6 Preliminary. NOTE.—For a description of the series and their comparability, see Survey of Current Business, September and November 1952, January 1954, and June 1957 for retail, and August 1957 for manufacturing and wholesale. The inventory figures in this table do not agree with the estimates of change in business inventories included in the gross national product since these figures cover only manufacturing and trade rather than all business, and show inventories in terms of current book value without adjustment for revaluation. Source: Department of Commerce. 178 TABLE D-35.—Manufacturers' sales, inventories, and orders, 1939-58 [Billions of dollars] Inventories 2 Sales i Period New orders l UnDurable-goods Nondurable-goods filled industries industries Dura- NonDura- Non- orders ble durable ble durable (unadgoods goods goods goods justPur- Gbods Fin- .Pur- Goods Fin- Total indusindus- indus- chased indus- ed) 3 in ished tries tries mateished chased in tries tries materials process goods rials process goods 1939 1.9 3.2 1.8 1.5 2.1 2.4 0.8 2.9 5.4 2.2 3.2 7.0 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 2.5 3.8 5.2 6.9 7.3 3.4 4.4 5.3 6.0 6.4 2.1 3.1 3.7 3.9 3.3 2.0 3.2 4.6 5.2 5.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.6 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.7 .9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.0 6.8 9.8 13.3 12.7 11.9 3.4 5.3 8.0 6.8 5.5 3.4 4.5 5.3 5.9 6.4 18.4 37.9 72.9 71.5 49.0 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 6.3 5.0 6.7 7.6 7. 1 6.6 7.6 9.2 10.0 9.3 3.2 4.5 5.1 5.6 4.6 3.5 4.6 5.2 5.4 4.7 2.1 2.9 4.0 4.7 4.7 4.9 6.5 7.2 7.3 6.5 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.2 4.2 5.2 6.5 6.3 10.5 13.7 15.6 17.4 15.9 3.9 5.9 6.4 7.5 6.6 6.6 7.8 9.3 9.9 9.3 20.9 33.8 30.3 26.9 20.8 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 8.8 10.4 10.9 12.4 11.2 10.5 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.3 6.1 7.4 7.3 7.4 6.5 6.0 8.6 10.2 10.7 9.8 4.7 6.8 6.9 8.1 7.7 8.4 9.1 8.6 8.1 7.9 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 6.6 8.2 8.1 8.4 8.4 21.0 24.5 23.6 23.1 22.5 10.3 12.7 11.7 11.0 10.2 10.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.3 41.1 67.6 76.3 59.5 46.9 1955 1956 1957 1958 ^ s 13.1 13.8 14.2 12.4 13.3 13.9 14.2 13.8 7.4 8.7 8.3 7.7 11.1 12.8 12.7 11.3 8.2 9.2 10.1 8.9 8.1 8.5 8.8 8.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.9 8.8 10.1 10.5 9.9 27.2 28.3 27.3 26.0 13.9 14.4 13.1 12.1 13.3 13.9 14.2 13.9 56.9 64.2 50.7 46.4 Seasonally adjusted 1957: January February. _. March April May June 14.9 14.8 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.2 15.0 14.7 14.2 14.4 14.3 13.9 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.4 13.4 13.3 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.6 9.7 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.9 9.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.5 10.5 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.9 28.4 27.1 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.2 14.1 13.2 14.8 14.5 14.2 14.7 14.3 13.8 64.0 63.7 63.2 61.9 61.1 60.3 Julv August September. _ October November, _ December- _ 14.6 14.3 14. 1 13.9 13.5 13.1 14.5 14.3 14.1 14.1 13.7 13.6 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.3 13.5 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.1 12.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.8 10.1 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.5 27.3 27.3 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.1 13.0 13.2 12.5 12.2 12.4 11.4 14.3 14.2 14.0 14.1 13.7 13.7 59.3 57.8 56. 0 53.2 52.0 50.7 12.6 12.0 11.7 11.5 11.6 12.1 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 8.3 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.6 12.4 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.4 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.2 10.0 24.4 24.1 24.8 24.5 25.0 25.8 10.7 10.7 11.5 10.8 11.4 12.2 13.7 13.4 13.3 13.7 13.6 13.5 49.1 47.8 47.5 46.5 46.1 46.4 12.3 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.7 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.6 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.9 26.4 26.1 27.0 27.9 27.9 12.5 12.2 12.9 13.5 13.7 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.2 46.7 46.7 46.2 46.1 46.4 1958: January February March _ April May June July August September.. October November 5_ 1 2 3 4 5 Monthly average shown for year and total for month. Book value, seasonally adjusted, end of period. End of period. Based on data through November. Preliminary. NOTE.—Seo Table D-34 for total sales and inventories of manufacturers. Source: Department of Commerce. 179 PRICES TABLE D-36.—Wholesale price indexes, 1929-58 [1947-49=100] i All commodities other than farm products and foods All commodities Period 1929 - 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 - 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 _ . _ _ _ . - _ - . _ 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 . _ _ _ _ - _ - . _ 1945 1946 1947 . 1948 1949 - - 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 3 1958 - - - - 1957: January .. _ February March . __ April May June July August September _. October. .. _ _ November December . 1958: January February March April May June July August _ September October November3 December . Farm products Processed foods Chemi- Rubber cals and and rubber allied prodproducts ucts Lumber and wood products 61.9 58.6 58.5 65.5 64.2 (2) 83.5 31.9 56.1 47.4 42.1 42.8 48.7 49.3 36.2 26.9 28.7 36.5 53.3 44.8 36.5 36.3 42.6 60.9 53.6 50.2 50.9 56.0 57.1 47.1 39.0 46.0 51.8 (22) (2) () 51.2 53.7 73.0 62.0 53.8 56.8 65.8 29.4 23.8 20.3 24.2 28.5 52.0 52.5 56.1 51.1 50.1 44.0 45.2 48.3 38.3 36.5 52.1 50.1 52.4 45.6 43.3 55.7 56.9 61.0 58.4 58.1 50.4 50.8 54.2 47.4 49.5 56.0 56.4 59.0 55.9 55.8 66.4 71.7 84.4 82.7 86.3 27.4 28.7 33.7 30.8 31.6 51.1 56.8 64.2 67.0 67.6 37.8 46.0 59.2 68.5 68.9 43.6 50.5 59.1 61.6 60.4 59.4 63.7 68.3 69.3 70.4 52.4 60.3 68.9 69.2 69.9 56.6 61.6 69.3 69.5 70.2 80.2 86.5 100.6 103.3 102.0 35.2 41.8 45.4 48.0 51.9 68.8 78.7 96.4 104.4 99.2 71.6 83.2 100.0 107.3 92.8 60.8 77.6 98.2 106.1 95.7 71.3 78.3 95.3 103.4 101.3 71.1 82.6 100.1 104.4 95.5 70.6 76.3 101.4 103.8 94.8 98.9 99.4 99.0 102.1 98.9 52.5 60.3 93.7 107.2 99.2 103.1 114.8 111.6 110.1 110.3 97.5 113.4 107.0 97.0 95.6 99.8 111.4 108.8 104.6 105.3 105. 0 115.9 113.2 114.0 114.5 99.2 110.6 99.8 97.3 95.2 96.3 110.0 104.5 105. 7 107.0 120.5 148.0 134.0 125. 0 126.9 113.9 123.9 120.3 120.2 118.0 110.7 114.3 117.6 119.2 89.6 88.4 90.9 94.9 101.7 101.7 105.6 110.9 117.0 122.2 125.6 126.0 95.3 95.3 95.4 93.5 106.6 107.2 109.5 110.4 143.8 145.8 145.2 145.0 123. 6 125.4 119.0 117.7 116.9 117.0 116.9 117.2 117.1 117.4 89.3 88.8 88.8 90.6 89.5 90.9 104.3 103.9 103.7 104.3 104.9 106.1 125.2 125.5 125.4 125.4 125.2 125.2 95.8 95.7 95.4 95.3 95.4 95.5 108.7 108.8 108.8 109.1 109.1 109.3 145.0 143.9 144.3 144.5 144.7 145.1 121.3 120.7 120.1 120.2 119.7 119.7 118.2 118.4 118.0 117.8 118.1 118.5 92.8 93.0 91.0 91.5 91.9 92.6 107.2 106.8 106.5 105.5 106.5 107.4 125.7 126.0 126.0 125.8 125.9 126.1 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.1 95.0 94.9 109.5 109.8 110.2 110.4 110.3 110.6 144.9 146.9 146.5 146.2 144.7 145.7 119.3 118.6 117.8 117.3 116.9 116.3 118.9 119.0 119.7 119.3 119.5 119.2 93.7 96.1 100.5 97.7 98.5 95.6 109.5 109.9 110.7 111.5 112.9 113. 5 126.1 125.7 125.7 125.5 125.3 125.3 94.6 94.1 94.0 93.7 93.5 93.3 110.8 110.6 110.7 111.0 110.8 110.7 145. 1 144.6 144.6 144.5 143.8 144.2 116.3 115.8 115. 5 115.7 115.9 116.4 119.2 119.1 119.1 119.0 119.2 119.2 95.0 93.2 93.1 92.3 92.1 90.7 112.7 111.3 111.1 110.0 109.5 108.8 125.6 126.1 126.2 126.4 126.8 127.2 93.3 93.3 93.3 93.2 93.1 93.2 110.4 110.0 109.9 110.2 110.2 110.0 144.7 144.4 145.2 146.1 146.6 146.7 116.8 118.6 120.4 120.8 120.0 119.6 See footnotes at end of table, p. 181. Total Textile products and apparel 180 TABLE D-36.—Wholesale price indexes, 1929-58—Continued [1947-49=100] i All commodities other than farm products and foods (continued) Period 70.2 (2) 54.4 46.8 39.7 44.0 47.1 66.5 57.2 59.5 56.1 62.0 (22) (2) (2) 48.7 51.9 56.9 50.5 52.0 Metals Machinand metal products ery and motive products Furniture and other household durables Non- Tobacco metal- manu- Miscellic factures laneous minerand prodals bottled ucts (struc- bevertural) ages 69.3 72.6 86.6 (2) ( 2) () 68.2 62.8 55.4 55.5 60.2 72.4 67.6 63.4 66.9 71.6 87.1 84.6 81.4 72.8 76.0 (2) (2) 60.3 54.1 49.9 50.9 56.2 2 62.2 64.5 65.7 64.7 61.8 8 %( ) 56.2 57.3 65.6 63.1 62.6 (2) (2) (2) (2) 71.6 71.7 73.4 71.1 69.5 75.9 75.8 76.5 76.4 76.4 (2) (2) (2) 65.3 59.8 60.6 67.2 65.6 65.4 54.8 58.9 64.0 63.9 63.4 60.7 64.5 66.4 68.4 70.3 62.8 64.0 64.9 64.8 64.8 66.2 68.6 71.2 71.0 71.0 66.8 71.2 76.8 76.4 78.4 69.7 71.3 74.1 74.5 75.9 77.3 78.1 79.1 83.0 83.4 64.2 74.6 101.0 102.1 96.9 71.1 76.2 90.9 107.1 101.9 (22) ( 2) (2) (2) () (2) &. 102.9 98.5 65.9 73.9 91.3 103.9 104.8 71.6 80.3 92.5 100.9 106.6 78.6 83.0 95.6 101.4 103.1 79.1 84.2 93.9 101.7 104.4 85.8 89.7 97.2 100.5 102.3 104.6 120.3 97.2 98.5 94.2 103.0 106.7 106.6 109.5 108.1 100.9 119.6 116.5 116.1 116.3 110.3 122.8 123.0 126.9 128.0 108.6 119.0 121.5 123.0 124.6 105.3 114.1 112.0 114.2 115.4 106.9 113.6 113.6 118.2 120.9 103.5 109.4 111.8 115.4 120.6 96.6 104.9 108.3 97.8 102.5 - 93.8 99.3 99.4 100.6 107.9 111.2 117.2 112.7 119.3 127.2 129.6 131.0 136.6 148.4 151.2 150.4 128.4 137.8 146.1 149.8 115.9 119.1 122.2 123.2 124.2 129.6 134.6 136.0 121.6 122.3 126.1 128.2 92.0 91.0 89.6 94.2 _ 98.4 98.0 98.4 98.6 98.9 99.8 116.3 119.6 119.2 119.5 118.5 117.2 128.6 128. 5 128.7 128.6 128.9 128.9 152.2 151.4 151.0 150.1 150. 0 150.6 143.9 144.5 144.8 145.0 145.1 145.2 121.9 121.9 121.9 121.5 121.6 121.7 132.0 132.7 133.2 134.6 135.0 135.1 124.0 124.1 124.1 124.5 124.5 124.7 93.2 92.4 92.0 91.4 89.4 87.3 July August September ... October November _ . _ December 100.6 100.3 100.0 100.1 100.0 99.5 116.4 116.3 116.1 115.8 115.7 116.2 129.5 129.9 130.1 130.9 130.9 131.0 152.4 153.2 152. 2 150.8 150.4 150.5 145.8 146.2 146.9 147.7 149.2 149.4 122. 2 122.4 122.3 122.6 122.7 123.5 135.2 135.3 135.2 135. 3 135. 4 135.7 127.7 127.7 127.7 127.7 127.8 128.0 88.8 90.1 89.4 87.7 86.8 87.2 99.5 99.6 99.5 99.7 99.9 100.3 116.1 113.6 112.4 111.0 110.3 110.7 130.8 130.8 130.5 130.5 130.5 130.5 150.0 150.1 149.8 148.6 148.6 148.8 149.4 149.3 149.2 149.4 149.4 149.5 123.8 123.6 123.5 123.4 123.2 123.0 136.4 136.5 135.3 135.4 135.4 135.2 128.1 128.1 128.0 128.0 128.0 128.0 88.3 89.3 94.3 97.8 96.2 93.7 100.3 100.5 100.2 101.4 102.3 103.6 111.9 113.7 114.1 113.0 112.6 112.9 131.0 131.0 131.7 131.9 131.9 131.4 148.8 150.8 151.3 152.2 153.0 153.0 149.5 149. 5 149.4 149.9 151.2 151.5 123.2 123.0 123.0 123.0 122.7 122.8 135.3 135.2 136.7 136.7 136.7 136.9 128.0 128.0 128.0 128.8 128.7 128.7 97.2 95.6 92.5 91.2 93.2 100.9 -. 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 59.3 Pulp, paper, and allied products (2) 1930 .. 1931 1932 1933 1934 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 Fuel, power, and lighting materials 67.0 1929 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 Hides, skins, leather, and leather products .. _ . _ _ . . 1955 1956 1957 19583 1957: January February March. April May June 1958: January February March . . April May June July August September- . October NovemberDecember 3 __ 2 ( ) (2) (2) (2) 8 () 2 (2) 8 8( ) 2 (22) () (22) () 100.8 103.1 96.1 1 This does not replace the former index (1926=100) as the official index prior to January 1952. These data from January 1947 through December 1951 represent the revised sample and the 1947-49 weighting pattern. Prior to January 1947 they are based on the month-to-month movement of the former index. 2 Not available. 3 Preliminary. Source: Department of Labor. 181 489916 O—59 13 TABLE D—37.—Wholesale price indexes, by stage of processing, 1947—58 [1947-49=100] Intermediate materials, supplies, and components l Crude materials Period All commodities Materials and components for manufacturing Food- Nonstuffs food maFuel Total and terials, feed- except stuffs fuel Total Materials for Total food manufacturing Materials for nondurable manufacturing Materials and Macomterials Compopofor nents du- nents for for rable conmanu- manustrucfactur- facturtion ing ing 1947 1948 1949 96.4 104.4 99.2 98.6 108.0 93.4 100.7 108.8 90.5 96.0 106.8 97.2 89.4 105.6 105.0 96.2 104.0 99.9 96.4 104.0 99.6 102.8 106.0 91.2 99.2 105.0 95.8 91.2 103.0 105.8 94.4 101.9 103.8 93.3 103.2 103.5 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 103.1 114.8 111.6 110.1 110.3 101.8 116.9 107.4 99.2 98.3 97.0 112.3 105.7 94.6 94.7 111.0 128.1 110.9 106.2 104.2 104.6 106. 5 107.2 111.0 106.0 104.3 116.9 113.5 114.1 114.8 104.5 118.4 113.4 115.2 115.4 94.9 105.7 101.5 101.8 100.9 100.5 116.5 104.8 104.0 102.3 111.9 124.3 124.6 130.1 133.1 107.6 122.2 122.5 124.7 125.3 108.9 119.1 118.3 120.2 120.9 1955 1956 1957 1958 * 110.7 114.3 117.6 119.2 94.5 95.0 97.2 99.4 85.7 84.0 87.7 92.8 110.1 114.2 112.5 108.4 105.8 113.3 119.7 121.2 117.0 122.1 125.1 125.3 118.2 123.7 126.9 127.2 97.7 98.0 99.9 102.2 102.7 104.3 105. 7 104.7 139.7 148.5 153.2 154.3 130.9 142.9 148.3 149.5 125.6 132.0 132.9 132.9 1957: January February . _ _ March April May June _ _ __ 116.9 117.0 116.9 117.2 117.1 117.4 97.4 96.7 96.7 97.1 96.5 98.8 86.3 85.9 86.5 88.0 86.9 89.1 115.8 114.2 113.4 111.6 112.0 115.0 120.8 121.7 119.9 120.0 119.3 118.1 124.8 125.1 124.9 125.0 124.7 124.5 126.4 126.5 126.3 126.3 126.2 126.2 101.1 100.4 99.6 99.0 98.5 99.2 105.4 105.5 105.2 105.4 105.6 105.9 152.1 152.6 152.5 152.5 152.0 151.6 147.5 147.4 147.6 147.9 148.0 147.7 132.8 132.8 132.7 132.8 132.6 132.6 118.2 118.4 118.0 117.8 118.1 118.5 99.7 99.6 97.0 95.3 95.3 96.4 90.4 90.3 87.3 86.1 86.8 88.5 115.2 115.0 112.6 109.9 108.1 107.7 118.0 118.0 118.6 119.0 120. 5 122.4 125.2 125.5 125.4 125.2 125.3 125. 4 127.1 127.4 127.4 127.3 127. 5 127.6 100.1 99.5 99.6 99.6 100.8 101.6 105.8 105.9 106.0 106.0 105.8 105.8 153.8 154.7 154.3 154.2 154 2 154.2 148.3 148.8 149.4 148.9 149.2 149.3 133.3 133.4 133.1 133.0 133.0 132.9 1958: January February. .. March April May June 118.9 119.0 119.7 119.3 119.5 119.2 97.5 99.5 101.5 100.3 101.7 100.7 90.3 93.2 96.7 95.4 97.7 95.7 107.6 107.9 107.1 106.3 106.0 107.0 123.0 123.5 123.4 117.9 117.9 118.2 125.4 125.0 125.0 125.1 124.9 124.7 127.5 127.3 127.1 126.9 126.8 126.9 102.4 102.5 102.4 103.2 103.5 103.4 105.7 105.4 105.2 105.0 104.6 104.5 153.8 153.6 153.5 152.9 152.9 152.9 149.3 149.1 148.8 148.5 149.0 149.4 133.0 132.6 131.9 131.8 132.0 132.1 July August September.. October November.4 . December _ 119.2 119.1 119.1 119.0 119.2 119.2 100.0 99.1 98.4 98.0 98.4 97.1 94.3 92.1 90.7 89.3 89.9 88.4 107.7 109.3 109.6 111.1 111.2 110.1 118.8 120.6 121.8 123.1 123.0 123.5 125.0 125.3 125.4 125.4 125. 7 126.3 126.7 127.2 127.3 127.6 127.8 127.8 102.6 101.8 101.5 101.4 101.2 100.4 104.3 104.2 104.1 104.2 104.3 104.5 152.9 155.0 155.4 156.2 156.6 156.5 149.5 149.5 149.8 150.2 150.7 150.7 132.1 132.7 133.7 134.2 134.1 134.1 July August September. . October November.. December. _ See footnotes at end of table, p. 183. 182 TABLE D—37.—Wholesale price indexes, by stage of processing, 1947—58—Continued [1947-49=100] Special groups of industrial products Finished goods Consumer finished goods Period Producer Total Total Other Du- finished nonFoods durable rable goods goods goods InterConsumer mediate Crude materials, finished mate- supplies, goods exrials 2 and com- cluding ponents 3 foods 1947 1948 1949 95.9 103.5 100.6 96.8 104.1 99.2 97.0 105.8 97.2 97.4 103.5 99.2 94.8 101.3 104.0 92.8 101.1 106.1 92.9 108.5 98.6 95.3 103.7 101.0 96.6 102.8 100.6 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 102.4 112.1 111.5 110.4 110.7 100.9 110.3 109.0 107.1 107.1 99.2 111.3 110.4 104.6 103.8 100.8 108.5 105.9 106.9 107.2 105.0 112.1 113.0 113.8 114.7 108.7 119.3 121.3 123.1 124.7 109.9 120.8 109.3 108.5 103.3 105.7 118.5 114.7 116.2 116.7 102.1 109.6 108.0 108.9 109.4 1955 1956 . 1957 1958* 110.9 114.0 118.1 120.8 106.4 108.0 111.1 113.5 101.1 101.0 104.5 110.5 107.8 109.9 112.4 111.7 115.9 119.7 123.3 125.0 128.5 138.1 146.7 1.50.3 113.4 120.0 118.3 113.7 120.1 126.0 129.3 129.1 110.2 112.8 115.7 115.8 116.7 117.0 116. 9 117.4 117.4 117.6 109.9 110.2 109.9 110.5 110.5 110.7 102.3 101.8 101.3 102.7 103.1 104.2 111.8 112.9 112.7 112.8 112.5 112.0 122.9 123.0 122.9 122.7 122.7 122.7 144.3 144.7 145.1 145.3 145.5 145.5 123.5 121.2 119.7 117.1 117.6 121.4 128.7 129.0 129.0 129.1 129.0 128.9 115.2 115.9 115.8 115.8 115.5 115.3 118.5 118. 6 118.8 119.0 119.6 119.9 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.8 112.2 112.5 106.2 106.2 106.0 106.2 106.8 107. 2 112.2 112.2 112.4 112.4 112.3 112.6 122.9 123.1 123.0 123.5 124.7 124.9 146.4 147.2 147.8 148.4 149.8 150.1 121.3 121.2 118.3 114.4 112.1 112.5 129.5 129.8 129.8 129.8 129.8 129.8 115.4 115. 5 115.6 115.7 116.1 116.3 - 120.6 120.6 121.4 120.9 121.0 120.7 113.3 113.3 114.4 113.7 113.9 113. 6 109.2 110.1 113.1 111. 9 112.5 111.6 112.5 111.8 111.5 111.1 110.9 111.0 125.1 124.9 124.9 124.8 124.7 124.7 150.1 150.1 150.0 150.1 150.0 150.0 112.2 112.9 112.0 110.2 109.7 111.2 129.7 129.2 128.8 128.6 128.5 128.5 116.3 115.8 115.6 115.3 115.2 115.2 July August September October _. _ _ November 4 December 120.8 120.6 120.9 120.6 120.6 120.5 113.7 113.3 113.7 113.3 113.0 112.8 111.5 110.0 110.8 109.6 108.5 107.7 111.4 112.0 112.2 112.2 112.0 112.1 124.7 124.7 124.6 125.0 126.0 126.2 150.0 150.0 150.1 150.3 151. 6 151.9 112.4 114.7 115.9 117.8 118.5 116.5 128.5 129.1 129.4 129.6 129.7 129.8 115.5 115.8 116.0 116.1 116.3 116.5 1957: January February March _ April May June .__ July AugustSeptember October _ _ November December 1958: January - . February March April May June 1 Includes, in addition to subgroups shown, processed fuels and lubricants, containers, and supplies. 2 Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaf tobacco. 34 Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds. Preliminary. NOTE.—For a listing of the commodities included in each sector and their relative importance, see Monthly Labor Review, December 1955. Source: Department of Labor. 183 TABLE D-38.—Consumer price indexes, 1929-58 For city wage-earner and clerical-worker families [1947-49=100] Housing All items Period Food Total Rent Other Per- ReadAp- Trans- Mediand goods cal sonal ing parel portarecreaand tion care care tion services 1929 73.3 65.6 0) 117.4 60.3 0) 0) 0) 71.4 65.0 58.4 55.3 57.2 62.4 51.4 42.8 41.6 46.4 0) 0) 0) (0 (0 114.2 108.2 97.1 83.6 78.4 58.9 53.6 47.5 45.9 50.2 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) (') 0) 0) (0 0) 0) (0 0) 0) (0 0) 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 0) (0 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 58.7 59.3 61.4 60.3 59.4 49.7 .50.1 52.1 48.4 47.1 71.8 72.8 75.4 76.6 76.1 78.2 80.1 83.8 86.5 86.6 50.6 51.0 53.7 53.4 52.5 69.6 70.2 71.3 71.9 70.2 71.4 71.6 72.3 72.5 72.6 54.6 55.3 58.5 59.8 59.6 58.1 59.1 60.8 62.9 63.0 67.2 67.0 68.8 69.4 70.6 59.9 62.9 69.7 74.0 75.2 47.8 52.2 61.3 68.3 67.4 76.4 78.3 81.8 82.8 84.7 86.9 88.4 90.4 90.3 90.6 53.2 55.6 64.9 67.8 72.6 69.8 72.2 78.5 78.2 78.2 72.7 73.1 75.1 78.7 81.2 59.5 61.0 66.9 73.8 79.0 64.1 66.4 69.5 75.3 83.4 72.8 74.2 76.3 80.2 82.4 76.9 83.4 95.5 102.8 101.8 68.9 79.0 95.9 104.1 100.0 86.1 88.3 95.0 101.7 103.3 90.9 91.4 94.4 100.7 105.0 76.3 83.7 97.1 103.5 99.4 78.1 82.1 90.6 100.9 108.5 83.1 87.7 94.9 100.9 104.1 81.5 87.4 97.6 101.3 101.1 86.8 89.7 95.5 100.4 104.1 85.7 88.6 96.1 100.5 103.4 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 102.8 111.0 113.5 114.4 114.8 101.2 112.6 114.6 112.8 112.6 106.1 112.4 114.6 117.7 119.1 108.8 113.1 117.9 124.1 128.5 98.1 106.9 105.8 104.8 104.3 111.3 118.4 126.2 129.7 128.0 106.0 111.1 117.2 121.3 125.2 101.1 110.5 111.8 112.8 113.4 103.4 106.5 107.0 108.0 107.0 105.2 109.7 115.4 118.2 120.1 1955 1956 1957 2 1958 114.5 116.2 120.2 123.4 110.9 111.7 115.4 120.4 120.0 121.7 125.6 127.7 130.3 132.7 135.2 137.7 103.7 105.5 106.9 106.9 126.4 128.7 136.0 140.1 128.0 132.6 138.0 144.1 115.3 120.0 124.4 128.6 106.6 108.1 112.2 116.7 120.2 122.0 125.5 127.2 118.2 ... 118.7 118.9 119.3 119.6 120.2 112.8 113.6 113. 2 113.8 114.6 116.2 123.8 124.5 124.9 125.2 125.3 125.5 134.2 134.2 134.4 134.5 134.7 135.0 106.4 106.1 106.8 106.5 106.5 106.6 133.6 134.4 135.1 135.5 135.3 135.3 135.3 135.5 136.4 136.9 137.3 137.9 122.1 122.6 122.9 123.3 123.4 124.2 109.9 110.0 110.5 111.8 111.4 111.8 123.8 124.0 124.2 124.2 124.3 124.6 120.8 121.0 121.1 121.1 121.6 121.0 117.4 117.9 117.0 116.4 116.0 116.1 125.5 125.7 126.3 126.6 126.8 127.0 135.2 135.4 135.7 136.0 136.3 136.7 106.5 106.6 107.3 107.7 107.9 107.6 135.8 135.9 135.9 135.8 140.0 138.9 138.4 138.6 139.0 139.7 140.3 140.8 124.7 124.9 125.1 126.2 126.7 127.0 112.4 112.6 113.3 113.4 114.4 114.6 126.6 126.7 126.7 126.8 126.8 126.8 122.3 122.5 123.3 123.5 123.6 123.7 118.2 118.7 120.8 121.6 121.6 121.6 127.1 127.3 127.5 127.7 127.8 127.8 136.8 137.0 137.1 137.3 137.5 137.7 106.9 106.8 106.8 106.7 106.7 106.7 138.7 138. 6 138.7 138.3 138.7 138.9 141.7 141.9 142.3 142.7 143.7 143.9 127.8 128.0 128.3 128.5 128.5 128.6 116.6 116.6 117.0 117.0 116.6 116.7 127.0 127.0 127.2 127.2 127.2 127.2 123.9 123.7 123.7 123.7 123.9 121.7 120.7 120.3 119.7 119.4 127.7 127.9 127.9 127.9 128.0 137.8 138.1 138.2 138.3 138.4 106.7 106.6 107.1 107.3 107.7 140.3 141.0 141.3 142.7 144.5 144.6 145.0 146.1 146.7 147.0 128.9 128.9 128.7 128.8 129.1 116.6 116.7 116.6 116.6 117.0 127.2 127.1 127.1 127.2 127.3 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 _ .- 1940. 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949. _ 1957' January February March April May June _ . July August September.. October . November December 1958: January _ February March April May June July August.. _-_ September October November. -__ _ 1 Not available. January-November average. Source: Department of Labor. 2 184 TABLE D-39.—Consumer price indexes, by selected major groups, 1935-58 For city wage-earner and clerical-worker families [1947-49=100] Commodities All items Period 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 All All items items less less food shelter All commodi- Food ties Services Commodities less food All NonDura- durables bles All services Rent All services less rent 58.7 59.3 61.4 60.3 59.4 65.8 66.5 68.9 69.6 69.1 55.5 56.2 58.0 56.4 55.4 52.0 52.7 54.7 52.7 51.6 49.7 50.1 52.1 48.4 47.1 57.3 57.9 60.4 60.4 59.4 53.3 54.1 57.5 58.5 57.3 57.1 57.6 59.9 59.6 58.7 75.6 76.4 78.7 80.3 80.4 78.2 80.1 83.8 86.5 86.6 72.6 72.2 72.9 73.5 73.5 59.9 62.9 69.7 74.0 75.2 69.4 71. 4 76.4 78.5 81.5 55.8 59.1 66.6 71.6 72.9 52.1 55.7 63.8 69.4 70.2 47.8 52.2 61.3 68.3 67.4 59.8 62.7 69.8 72.7 76.7 56.8 60.7 68.9 71.2 77.8 59.3 61.8 68.4 71.3 74.9 80.6 81.6 84.2 85.8 87.9 86.9 88.4 90.4 90.3 90.6 73.6 74.5 77.8 81.3 85.2 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 76.9 83.4 95.5 102.8 .- 101.8 83.4 87.0 95.1 101.9 103.0 74.8 82.3 95.6 103.1 101.3 72.3 80.1 96.3 103.2 100.6 68.9 79.0 95.9 104.1 100.0 79.7 84.7 95.7 102.9 101.5 83.7 87.5 94.9 101.8 103.3 77.6 83.3 95.7 103.1 101.1 89.0 90.8 94.5 100.4 105.1 90.991.4 94.4 100.7 105.0 87.0 90.2 94.7 100.1 105.2 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 102.8 111.0 113.5 .. 114.4 114.8 104.2 110.8 113.5 115.7 116.4 102.0 110.5 112.7 113.1 113.0 101.2 110.3 111.7 111.3 110.2 101.2 112.6 114.6 112.8 112.6 101.3 108.9 109.8 110.0 108.6 104.4 112.4 113.8 112.6 108.3 100.9 108.5 109.1 110.1 110.6 108.5 114.1 119.3 124.2 127.5 108.8 113.1 117.9 124.1 128.5 108.1 114.6 120.1 124.6 127.7 114.5 116.2 120.2 123.4 116.7 118.8 122.8 125. 4 112.4 114.0 117.8 121.2 109.0 110.1 113.6 116.3 110.9 111.7 115.4 120.4 107.5 108.9 112.3 113.3 105.1 105.1 108.8 110.3 110.6 113.0 116.1 116.9 129.8 132.6 137.7 142.3 130.3 132.7 135.2 137.7 130.1 133.0 138.6 143.7 118.2 118.7 U8.9 119.3 119.6 120.2 121.0 121.5 122.0 122.3 122.3 122.5 115.9 116.4 116.5 116.9 117.1 117.8 111.9 112.3 112.4 112.8 113.0 113.7 112.8 113.6 113.2 113.8 114.6 116.2 111.2 111.4 111.9 112.1 111.8 111.9 108.2 108.3 108.6 108.8 108.3 108.4 114.7 115.0 115.6 115.8 115.6 115.8 135.0 135.7 136.3 136.7 137.2 137.5 134.2 134.2 134.4 134.5 134.7 135.0 135.6 136.5 137.1 137.6 138.1 138.4 120.8 121.0 121.1 121.1 121.6 121.6 122.8 123.0 123.4 123.7 124.6 124.5 118.5 118.7 118.7 118.6 119.2 119.2 114.4 114.6 114.5 114.3 114.7 114.7 117.4 117.9 117.0 116.4 116.0 116.1 112.2 112.1 112.6 112.8 113.8 113.6 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.6 110.9 110.3 116.3 116.0 116.7 117.0 117.4 117.3 137.9 138.3 138.8 139.2 139.8 140.0 135.2 135.4 135.7 136.0 136.3 136.7 138.9 139.3 139.8 140.3 140.9 141.1 122.3 122. 5 123.3 123.5 123.6 123.7 124.7 124.8 125. 0 125. 0 125.1 125. 2 120.0 120.2 121.0 121.2 121.3 121.4 115.4 115. 5 116.4 116.6 116.6 116. 6 118.2 118.7 120.8 121.6 121.6 121.6 113.5 113.2 113. 1 112. 8 112.9 112.9 110.5 110.3 109.6 109.6 109.7 109.6 117.0 116.7 116.9 116.6 116. 5 116.7 140.5 141.0 141.7 142.1 142.3 142.3 136.8 137.0 137.1 137.3 137.5 137.7 141.7 142.3 143.1 143.5 143.8 143.8 123.9 123.7 123.7 123.7 123.9 125. 4 125.6 125.8 126.0 126.5 121.6 121.4 121. 5 121.5 121.7 116.8 116.4 116.4 116.4 116.6 121.7 120.7 120.3 119.7 119.4 113.1 113. 2 113.5 113.9 114.5 109.8 109.9 110.3 111.2 112.8 116.9 116.9 117.2 117.2 117.1 142.6 143.0 143.0 143.1 143.4 137.8 138.1 138.2 138.3 138.4 144.1 144.4 144.4 144.5 144.8 - 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 . _. ._ 1955 1956 1957 19581 ._ 1957: January. February March__. _ _ _ April May June July , August _September October __ _ November December 1958' January February March April May June July August September October.. _ _ _ _ November 1 January-November average. Source: Department of Labor. 185 MONEY SUPPLY, CREDIT, AND FINANCE TABLE D-40.—Deposits and currency, 1929-58 [Billions of dollars] Total excluding U. S. Government End of period 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 s 1957: January February March. April May June. . . -_ _ July August.. _ _ _ September October November December 1958: January February.March April May. _ __June Julys August 5 - _ September « October 5 November 5 December « Demand deposits and deposits 2 Total U.S. currency, Demand deposits and seasonally adjusted deposits Govcurrency and erncurment Total Time Demand CurDemand Curderency deposits 3 Total deposits rency Total deposits rency posits i ad- 4 outside ad- outside justed banks justed 4 banks 54.7 53.6 48.4 45.4 42.6 48.1 52.7 57.6 56.8 59.9 64.7 71.1 79.1 100 5 123.4 151.4 176.4 167.5 172.3 172.7 173.9 180.6 189.9 200.4 205. 7 214.8 221.0 226.4 232.3 245.9 222.4 221.1 221.5 224.3 224.2 224.9 225.2 225.0 225.4 226.9 227.0 232.3 227.7 228.0 230.9 234.4 234.2 239.5 237.2 238.7 238.1 240.5 243.4 245.9 0.2 .3 .5 .5 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.1 2.8 9.2 11.0 21.2 25.6 3.5 2.3 3.6 4.1 3.7 3.9 5.6 4.8 5.1 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.9 2.5 3.1 4.3 4.7 5.8 5.2 4.2 4.9 4.5 3.9 3.8 4.7 2.9 4.2 6.4 6.0 6.1 10.0 4.8 6.2 5.0 4.2 6.3 4.9 54.6 53.2 47.9 44.9 41.5 46.3 51.3 56.4 55.8 58.1 63.3 70.0 76.3 91.3 112.4 130.2 150.8 164.0 170.0 169.1 169.8 176.9 186. 0 194.8 200.9 209.7 216.6 222.0 227.7 241.0 219.9 218.0 217.2 219.6 218.4 219.7 221.0 220.0 220.9 223.0 223.3 227.7 224.8 223.9 224.5 228.4 228.1 229.5 232.4 232.5 233.1 236.2 237.0 241.0 28.2 28.7 26.0 24.5 21.7 23.2 24.2 25.4 26.2 26.3 27.1 27.7 27.7 28.4 32.7 39.8 48.5 54.0 56.4 57.5 58.6 59.2 61.5 65.8 70.4 75.3 78.4 82.2 89.1 97.8 82.9 83.6 84.6 84.9 85.7 86.4 86.7 87.1 87.7 88.1 87.6 89.1 89.8 90.9 92.5 93.6 94.6 95.5 96.5 97.0 97.2 97.4 96.7 97.8 26.4 24.6 21.9 20.4 19.8 23.1 27.0 31.0 29.6 31.8 36.2 42.3 48.6 62.9 79.6 90.4 102.3 110.0 113.6 111.6 111.2 117.7 124.5 129.0 130.5 134.4 138.2 139.7 138. 6 143.1 136.9 134.4 132.6 134.7 132.7 133.3 134.3 132.9 133.3 134.9 135.7 138.6 135.0 133.0 132.0 134.8 133.5 134.0 135.9 135.5 135.9 138.8 140.3 143.1 22.8 21.0 17.4 15.7 15.0 18.5 22.1 25 5 24.0 26.0 29.8 34.9 39.0 48.9 60.8 66.9 75.9 83.3 87.1 85.5 85.8 92.3 98.2 101.5 102.5 106.6 109.9 111.4 110.3 114.5 109.5 107.0 105.2 107.3 104.8 105.6 106.6 105.1 105. 5 107.2 107.2 110.3 107.6 105.6 104.6 107.2 105.8 106.2 108.1 107.5 108.1 110.8 111.6 114.5 3.6 3.6 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.4 7.3 9.6 13.9 18.8 23.5 26.5 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.4 25.4 26.3 27.5 28.1 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.6 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.5 28.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.8 28.6 134.1 134.5 134.7 135.0 134.6 135.2 136.0 134.7 133.9 134.2 134.0 133.2 132.2 133.1 134.0 135.0 135.5 135.4 137.6 137.3 136.7 137.9 138.5 138.3 106.5 106.9 107.0 107.3 106.6 107.3 108.0 106.8 106.2 106.6 105.9 105.1 104.7 105.5 106.4 107.2 107. 6 107.4 109.5 109.2 108.9 110.0 110.3 110.3 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.1 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.0 1 Includes U. S. Government deposits at Federal Reserve Banks and commercial and savings banks and, beginning with 1938, includes U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account. 23 Includes holdings of State and local governments. Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, but excludes interbank deposits. 4 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. « Preliminary; December estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Monthly data are for the last Wednesday of the month, except the unadjusted data for December 1957 and June and December 1958, which are for call dates. All end-of-year figures are for call dates. Detail will not necessarily add to total because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted). 186 TABLE D—41.—Loans and investments of all commercial banks, 1929—58 [Billions of dollars] End of period 1 1929— June 5 - 1930— June 55 . .. . 1931— June 5 -1932—June 1933—June 55 1934—June 1935 - 1936 . 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 . - - 1945 - - -- -1946 1947 .- 1948 . 1949 1950 1951 -. .1952 1953 1954 -- -1955 _- _ 1956 1957 7 1958 1957: January . _ _ _ _. February March April. _ -.- . Mav June July August -- _ - - September October November. - _ December 1958: January February _ _ _ _ _ March _ _ _ __ __ April May_. June__ _ _ July 7 7 August 7 September _ October 7 7 November 7 December _ Total loans and investments 49.4 48.9 44.9 36.1 30.4 32.7 36.1 39.6 38.4 38.7 40.7 43.9 50.7 67.4 85.1 105.5 124.0 114.0 116.3 114. 3 120.2 126.7 132.6 141.6 145.7 155.9 160.9 165.1 170. 1 184.5 162.8 162. 5 162.9 165.1 165.1 165.6 165. 4 165.9 166.3 167.9 167.3 170.1 167.7 168.6 171.4 175.6 175.4 179.9 177.6 180.0 179.5 181.4 183.6 184.5 Loans • Total 2 35.7 34.5 29.2 21.8 16.3 15.7 15.2 16.4 17.2 16.4 17.2 18.8 21.7 19.2 19.1 21.6 26.1 31.1 38.1 42.5 43.0 52.2 57.7 64.2 67.6 70.6 82.6 90.3 93.9 97.9 88.9 89.3 90.6 91.0 91.2 93.3 92.3 92.8 93.4 93.0 /92.9 93.9 92.0 92.1 93.0 93.5 92.9 95.6 93.6 93.8 94.2 94.9 96.0 97.9 Investments Business loans 3 (6) (66) (8) (6) (6) () (66) ( 6) () 5.7 6.4 7.3 9.3 7.9 7.9 8.0 9.6 14.2 18.2 18.9 17.1 21.9 25.9 27.9 27.2 26.9 33.2 38.7 40.5 40.1 37.6 37.8 39.0 39.0 38.9 40.5 39.6 39.9 40.3 39.7 39.6 40.5 38.8 38.6 39.2 38.4 38.1 38.9 37.9 38.3 38.7 38.8 39.2 40.1 Total 13.7 14.4 15.7 14.3 14.0 17.0 20.9 23.1 21.2 22.3 23.4 25.1 29.0 48.2 66.0 83.9 97.9 82.9 78.2 71.8 77.2 74.4 74.9 77.5 78.1 85.3 78.3 74.8 76.2 86.5 73.9 73.2 72.2 74.1 73.9 72.3 73.0 73.1 72.9 74.9 74.3 76.2 75.6 76.5 78.4 82.1 82.5 84.3 84.0 86.2 85.3 86.5 87.6 86.5 U. S. GovOther ernment obligations * securities 4.9 5.0 6.0 6.2 7.5 10.3 13.8 15.3 14.2 15.1 16.3 17.8 21.8 41.4 59.8 77.6 90.6 74.8 69.2 62.6 67.0 62.0 61.5 63.3 63.4 69.0 61.6 58.6 58.2 66.1 57.7 56.8 55.7 57.5 57.1 55.5 56.3 56.2 55. 9 57.3 56.9 58.2 57.7 58.3 59.6 62.8 63.1 64.2 64.1 66.1 64.7 66.0 67.3 66.1 8.7 9.4 9.7 8.1 6.5 6.7 7.1 7.9 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.4 7.2 6.8 6.1 6.3 7.3 8.1 9.0 9.2 10.2 12.4 13.3 14.1 14.7 16.3 16.7 16.3 17.9 20.4 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.6 17.4 17.9 17.9 18.2 18.9 19.3 19.4 20.1 19.9 20.2 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.4 1 End-of-year, December 1957, June and December 1958 figures are for call dates. Other data (including those for June 1957) are for the last Wednesday of the month. 2 Data are shown net, i. e., after deduction of valuation reserves. Includes commercial and industrial, agricultural, security, real estate, bank, consumer, and other loans. 3 Beginning with 1948, data are shown gross of valuation reserves, instead of net as for previous years. Prior to June 1947 and for months other than June and December, data are estimated on the basis of reported data for all insured commercial banks and for weekly reporting member banks. 4 Figures in this table are based on book values and relate only to banks within the continental United States. Therefore, they dp not agree with figures in Table D-49, which are on the basis of par values and include holdings of banks in United States Territories and possessions. 3 June data are used because complete end-of-year data are not available prior to 1935 for U. S. Government obligations and other securities. 6 Not available. 7 Preliminary; December estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted). 187 TABLE D-42.—Federal Reserve Bank credit and member bank reserves, 1929—58 [Averages of daily figures, millions of dollars] Member bank reserves Reserve Bank credit outstanding Period Total U.S. Member bank Government se- borrowcurities ings All other, mainly float Total Required Excess Member bank free reserves (excess reserves less borrowings) -900 1929 1,459 208 943 308 2,358 2,315 43 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1,087 1,274 2,077 2,429 2,502 564 669 1,461 2,052 2,432 271 323 518 234 29 252 282 98 143 41 2,379 2,323 2,114 2,343 3,676 2,324 2,234 1,858 11,815 i 2, 112 55 89 256 1528 i 1, 564 -216 -234 -262 294 1,535 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 2,475 2,481 2,554 2,600 2,628 2,431 2,431 2,504 2,565 2,584 7 6 14 9 4 37 44 36 26 40 5,001 5,989 6,830 7,935 10, 352 2,532 3,477 5,610 5,413 5,960 2,469 2,512 1,220 2,522 4,392 2,462 2,506 1,206 2,513 4,388 1940 .-1941 1942 1943 .. 1944 2,487 2,293 3,408 8,182 15, 358 2,417 2,187 3,191 7,724 14, 772 3 5 5 24 135 67 101 212 434 451 13, 249 13, 404 12,648 12, 626 13, 222 6,923 8,080 9,980 11,116 12, 176 6,326 5,324 2,668 1,510 1,046 6,323 5,319 2,663 1,486 911 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 22, 211 24,029 22, 989 22, 283 20, 161 21, 363 23,250 22,330 21, 511 19,560 366 215 156 140 115 482 564 503 632 486 15, 055 15,969 16, 461 18,001 17, 774 13, 934 14, 993 15,608 17,164 16, 952 1,121 976 853 837 822 755 761 697 697 707 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 19, 062 24, 070 24, 801 26, 262 25, 602 18, 410 22, 756 23,066 24, 661 24, 646 106 289 780 768 147 546 1,025 955 833 809 16,400 19, 293 20, 356 19,996 19, 276 15, 617 18, 536 19,642 19, 319 18,501 783 757 714 677 775 677 468 -66 -91 628 1955 1956 1957 1958 25, 472 25, 702 25, 373 25, 982 23, 891 23, 709 23, 345 24, 654 607 831 837 294 974 1,162 1,191 1,032 18, 843 18, 965 19, 021 18, 647 18, 257 18, 403 18,504 2 18, 056 586 562 517 2592 -21 -269 -320 2298 25,905 24, 912 24, 968 25, 411 25, 041 25, 189 24, 092 23, 111 23, 061 23, 239 23, 041 22, 989 407 640 834 1,011 909 1,005 1,406 1,161 1,073 1,161 1,091 1,195 19,295 18, 816 18, 884 19, 087 18, 827 18, 982 18, 773 18, 302 18, 366 18, 580 18, 362 18, 485 523 514 518 506 465 496 117 -126 -316 -505 -444 -508 25, 466 25, 166 25, 489 25, 326 25, 373 26, 186 23, 351 23, 146 23, 325 23, 348 23, 417 23, 982 917 1,005 988 811 804 710 1,198 1,015 1,176 1,167 1,152 1,494 19,129 18, 834 18, 956 19, 040 18, 958 19, 420 18, 595 18,300 18, 434 18, 573 18, 447 18, 843 534 534 522 467 512 577 -383 -471 -467 -344 -293 -133 25, 229 24, 568 24, 559 24, 682 24, 939 25, 851 23, 608 23, 378 23, 486 23, 649 23, 939 24, 749 451 242 138 130 119 142 1,170 948 935 903 881 960 19, 296 19,000 18, 730 18, 394 18, 223 18,600 18, 723 18, 434 18, 097 17, 772 17, 557 17, 974 573 567 633 623 666 626 122 324 495 493 547 484 26, 310 26, 554 26, 548 26, 789 27,211 28, 412 25, 218 25, 410 25, 051 25, 296 25, 650 26, 312 109 252 476 425 486 557 983 892 1,021 1,068 1,074 1,536 18,609 18, 580 18, 425 18, 476 18, 540 18, 899 17, 953 17, 946 17, 854 17, 955 18, 034 2 18, 372 656 635 571 521 506 2 527 546 383 95 96 20 2-30 . - 1957' January February March April May June July August September October November December 1958* January February -March April May June July August September October . November December 1 Data from March 1933 through April 1934 are for licensed banks only. Preliminary. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2 188 TABLE D-43.—Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-58 [Percent per annum] U. S. Government securities Period 1929 3-month 9-12 Treas- month Taxable Aaa 3 ury 2 bonds bills i issues . 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 - 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 - - - - 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 - - ..- 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 Corporate bonds (Moody's) - - - - .-- .. 1956' January February March April May June.. _ July August September October November December Highgrade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) Average rate on Prime Fedshorteral comterm Remerbank serve cial loans paper Bank , to busidis4—6 nesscount selected months rate cities (4) (5) 4.73 5.90 3.41 4.27 (6) 5.85 5.16 4 () 1.402 .879 .515 .256 (55) () (55) ( 5) 5.90 7.62 9.30 7.76 6.32 4.54 6.17 7.36 4.42 4.11 4.07 4.01 4.65 4.71 4.03 (66) () () 4.55 4.58 5.01 4.49 4.00 8( ) 3.59 2.64 2.73 1.73 1.02 3.04 2.11 2.82 2.56 1.54 .137 .143 .447 .053 .023 (55) (5) (5) (5) 3.60 3.24 3.26 3.19 3.01 5.75 4.77 5.03 5.80 4.96 4.06 3.50 4.77 4.38 4.15 3.40 3.07 3.10 2.91 2.76 (6) (•) (6) (6) 2.1 .75 .75 .94 .81 .59 1.50 1.50 1.33 1.00 1.00 .014 .103 .326 .373 .375 (5) (55) () .75 .79 2.46 2.47 2.48 2.84 2.77 2.83 2.73 2.72 4.75 4.33 4.28 3.91 3.61 5.31 6.25 6.67 4.89 4.81 2.50 2.10 2.36 2.06 1.86 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.4 .56 .53 .66 .69 .73 71.00 71.00 71.00 .375 .375 .594 1.040 1.102 .81 .82 .88 1.14 1.14 2.37 2.19 2.25 2.44 2.31 2.62 2.53 2.61 2.82 2.66 3.29 3.05 3.24 3.47 3.42 4.19 3.97 5.13 5.78 6.63 1.67 1.64 2.01 2.40 2.21 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.7 .75 .81 1.03 1.44 1.49 71.00 71.00 1.218 1.552 1.766 1. 931 .953 1.26 1.73 1.81 2.07 .92 2.32 2.57 2.68 2.94 2.55 2.62 2.86 2.96 3.20 2.90 3.24 3.41 3.52 3.74 3.51 6.27 6.12 5.50 5.49 4.78 1.98 2.00 2.19 2.72 2.37 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.6 1.45 2.16 2.33 2.52 1.58 1.59 1.75 1.75 1.99 1.60 1.753 2.658 3.267 1.839 1.89 2.83 3.53 2.09 2.84 3.08 3.47 3.43 3.06 3.36 3.89 3.79 3.53 3.88 4.71 4.73 4.06 4.07 4.33 4.05 2.53 2 93 3^60 3.56 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.3 2.18 3.31 3.81 2.46 1.89 2.77 3.12 2.16 2.456 2.372 2.310 2.613 2.650 2.527 2.50 2.38 2.43 2.83 2.83 2.69 2.88 2.85 2.93 3.07 2.97 2.93 3.11 3.08 3.10 3.24 3.28 3.26 3.60 3.58 3.60 3.68 3.73 3.76 4.21 4.09 3.86 3.87 4.13 4.01 2.64 2.58 2.69 2.88 2.86 2.75 3.93 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.14 3.27 3.38 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.65 2.75 2.75 2.334 2.606 2.850 2.961 3.000 3.230 2.62 3.01 3.17 3.07 3.15 3.33 3.00 3.28 3.17 3.43 3.21 ' 3.56 3.20 3.59 3.30 3.69 3.40 3.75 3.80 3.93 4.07 4.17 4.24 4.37 3.87 4.02 4.24 4.23 4.25 4.13 2.78 2.94 3.07 3.14 3.38 3.44 4.35 3.27 3.28 3.50 3.63 3.63 3.63 2.75 2.81 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 () See footnotes at end of table, p. 190. Baa Common stock yields, 200 stocks Moody's) 189 6 4.14 4.38 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.34 1.50 TABLE D-43.—Bond yields and interest rates, 1929-58—Continued [Percent per annum] Corporate bonds (Moody's) Common stock yields, 200 3-month 9-12 stocks Treas- month Taxable 3 Aaa Baa (Moody's) 2 bonds ury bills i issues U. S. Government securities Period 1957: January February March April May June _ July August September October _ November December 1958: January February March April May June July August September October November December - - 3.77 3.67 3.66 3.67 3.74 3.91 Highgrade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) Average rate on shortterm bank loans to businessselected cities 3.210 3.165 3.140 3.113 3.042 3.316 3.17 3.23 3.35 3.41 3.37 3.55 3.34 3.22 3.26 3.32 3.40 3.58 4.49 4.47 4.43 4.44 4.52 4.63 4.31 4.44 4.35 4.16 4.05 4.05 3.40 3.26 3.32 3.33 3.52 3.75 4.38 3.165 3.404 3.578 3.591 3.337 3.102 3.71 3.93 4.02 3.94 3.52 3.09 3.60 3.99 4.73 3.63 4.10 4.82 3.66 4.12 4.93 3.73 4.10 4.99 3.57 4.08 5.09 3.30 3.81 5.03 4.01 4.21 4.50 4.68 4.58 4.77 3.75 3.91 3.90 3.79 3.76 3.47 4.83 2.598 1.562 1.354 1.126 1.046 .881 2.56 1.93 1.77 1.35 1.21 .98 3.24 3.28 3.25 3.12 3.14 3.20 3.60 3.59 3.63 3.60 3.57 3.57 4.83 4.66 4.68 4.67 4.62 4.55 4.56 4.62 4.50 4.35 4.27 4.15 3.32 3.37 3.45 3.31 3.25 3.26 4.49 .962 1.686 2.484 2.793 2.756 2.814 1.34 2.14 2.84 2.83 2.92 3.24 3.36 3.60 3.75 3.76 3.70 3.80 3.67 4.53 3.85 4.67 4.09 4.87 4.11 4.92 4.09 4.87 4.08 4.85 3.97 3.91 3.72 3.64 3.54 3.34 3.45 3.74 3.96 3.94 3.84 3.84 4.21 4.40 4.85 4.17 4.50 Prime commercial paper, 4-6 months Federal Reserve Bank discount rate 3.63 3.63 3.63 3.63 3.63 3.79 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.88 3.98 4.00 4.10 4.07 3.81 3.00 3.15 3.50 3.50 3.23 3.00 3.49 2.63 2.33 1.90 1.71 1.54 2.94 2.75 2.35 2.03 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.96 2.93 3.23 3.08 3.33 1.75 1.75 1.91 2.00 2.40 2.50 1 Rate on new issues within period. Issues were tax exempt prior to March 1, 1941, and fully taxable thereafter. For the period 1934-37, series includes issues with maturities of more than 3 months. 2 Includes certificates of indebtedness and selected note and bond issues (fully taxable). 3 First issued in 1941. Series includes: October 1941-March 1952, bonds due or callable after 15 years; April 1952-March 1953, bonds due or callable after 12 years; April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. 4 5 Treasury bills were first issued in December 1929 and were issued irregularly in 1930. Not available before August 1942. 6 Not available on same basis as for 1939 and subsequent years. 7 From October 30, 1942, to April 24, 1946, a preferential rate of 0.50 percent was in effect for advances secured by Government securities maturing or callable in 1 year or less. NOTE.—Yields and rates computed for New York City, except for short-term bank loans. Sources: Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 190 TABLE D-44.—Short- and intermediate-term consumer credit outstanding, 1929—58 [Millions of dollars] Instalment credit End of period Total Noninstalment credit Other Repair conPerand sumer modern- sonal goodsl zation2 loans ioans paper Tqtal Automobile paper l 3,151 (4) (4) (4) (4) 3,293 1,602 1,691 5,767 4,760 3,567 3,482 3,904 2,687 2,207 1,521 1,588 1,871 (44) (4) ( 4) (4) (44) (4) () (44) (4) (4) (4) (44) () (44) ( 4) ( 4) () (4) 3,080 2,553 2,046 1,894 2,033 1,476 1,265 1,020 990 1,102 1,604 1,288 1,026 904 931 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 . 4,911 6,135 6,689 6,338 7,222 2,694 3,623 4,015 3,691 4,503 (44) ( 4) (4 ) () 1,497 (44) (4) (4 ) () 1,620 (4) (4) (44) () 298 (44) ( 4) (4) () 1,088 2,217 2,512 2,674 2,647 2,719 1,183 1,300 1,336 1,362 1,414 1,034 1,212 1,338 1,285 1,305 1940 1941 1942 1943 . 1944 . 8,338 9,172 5,983 4,901 5,111 5,514 6,085 3,166 2,136 2,176 2,071 2,458 742 355 397 1,827 1,929 1,195 819 791 371 376 255 130 119 1, 245 1,322 974 832 869 2,824 3,087 2,817 2,765 2,935 1,471 1,645 1,444 1,440 1,517 1,353 1,442 1,373 1,325 1,418 1945 1946 . . . . 1947 1948 1949 5,665 8,384 11, 570 14, 398 17, 305 2,462 4,172 6,695 8,996 11,590 455 981 1,924 3,018 4,555 816 1,290 2,143 2,901 3,706 182 405 718 853 898 1,009 1,496 1,910 2,224 2,431 3,203 4,212 4,875 5,402 5,715 1,612 2,076 2,353 2,673 2,795 1,591 2,136 2,522 2,729 2,920 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 21, 395 22,617 27, 401 31, 243 32, 292 14, 703 15, 294 19, 403 23, 005 23, 568 6,074 5,972 7,733 9,835 9,809 4,799 4,880 6,174 6,779 6,751 1,016 1,085 1,385 1,610 1,616 2,814 3,357 4,111 4,781 5,392 6,692 7,323 7,998 8,238 8,724 3,291 3,605 4,011 4,124 4,308 3,401 3,718 3,987 4,114 4,416 38, 670 ... 42, 097 44, 774 44,800 28, 958 31, 827 34, 095 33,700 13, 472 14, 459 15, 409 14,100 7,634 8,510 8,692 9,000 1,689 1,895 2,091 2,100 6,163 6,963 7,903 8,500 9,712 10, 270 10, 679 11, 100 4,579 4,735 4,829 5,000 5,133 5,535 5, 850 6,100 41, 288 40, 877 40, 854 41, 352 42,080 _ _ _ _ _ _ 42, 496 31, 581 31, 494 31, 527 31, 782 32, 165 32, 602 14, 404 14,419 14, 509 14, 664 14, 849 15,086 8,320 8,168 8,049 8,017 8,092 8,164 1,880 1,875 1,880 1,894 1,928 1,956 6,977 7,032 7,089 7,207 7,296 7,396 9,707 9,383 9,327 9,570 9,915 9,894 4,171 3,714 3,560 3,772 3,943 3,987 5,536 5,669 5,767 5,798 5,972 5,907 42, 633 _ _ _ _ 43, 033 43, 159 43, 162 43, 438 44, 774 32, 962 33, 283 33, 393 33, 484 33, 566 34, 095 15, 277 15, 431 15, 488 15, 505 15, 459 15, 409 8,196 8,221 8,220 8,229 8,289 8,692 1,981 2,024 2,049 2,078 2,095 2,091 7,508 7,607 7,636 7,672 7,723 7,903 9,671 9,750 9,766 9,678 9,872 10, 679 3,927 3,968 3,966 4,044 4,147 4,829 5,744 5,782 5,800 5,634 5,725 5,850 _ - 43, 904 43, 017 42, 500 42, 617 42, 985 43, 079 33, 713 33, 278 32,940 32, 888 32, 910 33, 008 15, 235 15, 030 14, 793 14, 691 14, 613 14,590 8,495 8,277 8,179 8,124 8,158 8,190 2,069 2,041 2,019 2,017 2,038 2,048 7,914 7,930 7,949 8,056 8,101 8,180 10, 191 9,739 9,560 9,729 10, 075 10, 071 4,290 3,754 3,579 3,772 4,010 4,012 5,901 5,985 5,981 5,957 6,065 6,059 . ___ 42, 923 43, 128 43, 144 43,164 43, 464 44, 800 33, 074 33,165 33, 079 33, 052 33, 126 33,700 14, 567 14, 514 14, 332 14, 164 14, 066 14,100 8,197 8,254 8,312 8,411 8, 528 9,000 2,061 2,091 2,107 2,128 2,146 2,100 8,249 8,306 8,328 8,349 8,386 8,500 9,849 9,963 10, 065 10, 112 10, 338 11,100 3,927 3,956 4,033 4,191 4,297 5,000 5,922 6,007 6,032 5,921 6,041 6,100 1929 6,444 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 . 1955 1956 1957 5 1958 . _ _ _ . - .. 1957: January February March April May June _ - _ _ .- July August September October November December __ 1958' January February. March April _ - -_ _ . May June _ July August September OctoberNovember 5 December () () Total Charge Other 3 accounts 1 Includes all consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased. 2 Includes only such loans held by financial institutions; those held by retail outlets are included in "other consumer goods paper." 3 Single-payment loans and service credit. 4 Not available. 5 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted). TABLE D—45-—Instalment credit extended and repaid, 1946-58 [Millions of dollars] Total Repair and Other consumer modernization goods paper loans Automobile paper Period 1946 1947 1948 1949 . 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 i Personal loans Extended Repaid Extended Repaid Extended Repaid Extended Repaid Extended Repaid 8,495 12, 713 15,585 18, 108 21,558 23, 576 29, 514 31, 558 31, 051 39, 039 40,063 42, 426 40,400 6,785 10, 190 13, 284 15, 514 18, 445 22, 985 25, 405 27, 956 30, 488 33, 649 37, 194 40, 158 40,800 1,969 3,692 5,217 6,967 8, 530 8,956 11, 764 12, 981 11, 807 16, 745 15, 563 16, 545 14, 100 1,443 2,749 4,123 5,430 7,011 9,058 10,003 10, 879 11,833 13, 082 14, 576 15, 595 15,400 3,077 4,498 5,383 5,865 7,150 7,485 9,186 9,227 9,117 10,634 11, 590 11, 626 11,800 2,603 3,645 4,625 5,060 6,057 7,404 7,892 8,622 9,145 9,751 10, 714 11,444 11, 500 423 704 714 734 835 841 1,217 1,344 1,261 1,388 1.568 1,662 1,600 200 391 579 689 717 772 917 1,119 1,255 1,315 1,362 1,466 1,600 3,026 3,819 4,271 4,542 5,043 6,294 7,347 8,006 8,866 10, 272 11, 342 12, 593 12, 900 2,539 3,405 3,957 4,335 4,660 5,751 6,593 7,336 8,255 9,501 10,542 11,653 12,300 104 109 121 132 160 144 156 164 152 155 138 127 107 95 111 131 144 146 146 151 158 159 141 150 119 114 116 118 126 116 131 121 127 126 121 131 129 123 133 133 123 136 133 121 142 138 123 150 932 898 1,009 1,103 1,070 1,047 1,131 1,063 956 1,021 1,045 1,318 1,011 919 1,050 1,117 1,028 1,101 1,100 1,065 1,041 1,068 1,052 1,350 918 843 952 985 981 947 1,019 964 927 985 994 1,138 1,000 903 1,031 1,010 983 1,022 ,031 ,008 ,019 ,047 ,015 ,200 134 138 133 133 147 138 142 150 140 139 134 134 137 122 122 132 134 135 135 142 142 143 142 150 117 121 115 117 125 122 129 121 128 122 118 131 126 130 130 135 124 138 132 124 139 134 124 150 998 1,011 997 1,034 1,046 1,054 1,085 1,069 1,051 1,057 1,077 1,114 1,080 1,032 1,017 1,063 1,023 1,062 1,075 1,112 1,095 1,104 1,133 1,100 925 921 938 966 970 978 978 972 988 977 1,014 1,026 1,003 987 996 1,010 989 1,014 1,009 1,055 1,041 1,039 1,079 1,050 Unadjusted 1957; January February March April May June. July August September. __ October November December 1958: January February March April May June July August -_. September. _ . October . . November December i _ _ _ 3,105 2,972 3,351 3,590 3,760 3,661 3,845 3,693 3,386 3,547 3,428 4,088 3,088 2,742 3,156 3,335 3,371 3,477 3, 483 3,385 3,297 3,475 3,338 4,200 3,351 3,059 3,318 3,335 3,377 3,224 3,485 3,372 3,276 3,456 3,346 3,559 3,470 3,177 3,494 3,387 3,349 3,379 3,417 3,294 3,383 3,502 3,264 3,600 1,253 ,207 ,373 ,457 ,503 ,482 ,550 ,454 ,350 ,393 ,231 ,292 ,176 ,014 ,094 ,211 ,199 ,257 ,281 ,193 ,105 ,173 ,091 ,300 1,308 1,192 1,283 1,302 1,318 1,245 1,359 1,300 ,293 ,376 ,277 ,342 ,350 ,219 ,331 ,313 ,277 ,280 ,304 ,246 ,287 ,341 ,189 ,250 816 758 848 898 1,027 988 1,008 1,012 928 978 1,014 1,351 794 714 901 876 1,000 973 956 976 993 1,075 1,054 1,400 1,006 910 967 930 952 916 976 987 929 969 954 948 991 932 999 931 966 941 949 919 935 976 937 1,000 Seasonally adjusted 1957: January. __ February March April. May June July August.. _ September October November December 1958: JanuaryFebruary March April May June. July August September,... October November December L _ . 3,498 3,503 3,428 3,461 3, 551 3,534 3,608 3, 580 3,542 3,533 3,553 3,635 3,481 3,221 3,184 3,262 3,243 3,259 3,330 3,415 3,324 3,450 3,591 3,600 3,298 3,259 3,262 3,284 3,317 3,345 3,381 3,356 3,398 3,369 3,393 3,496 3,415 3,389 3,384 3,393 3,339 3,393 3,367 3,404 3,377 3,419 3,449 3,400 1,414 1,398 1,366 1,362 1,352 1,347 1,371 1,343 1,377 1,424 1,384 1,407 1,331 1,171 1,067 1,151 1,100 1,101 1,159 1,148 1,088 1,205 1,282 1,300 1,314 1,283 1,270 1,291 1,303 1,292 1,306 1,281 1,303 1,312 1,281 1,359 1,357 1,312 1,294 1,328 1,285 1,279 1,278 1,277 1,247 1,282 1,244 1,200 1 952 956 932 932 1,006 995 1,010 1,018 974 913 958 980 933 896 978 916 986 961 961 1,013 999 998 1,034 1,050 942 934 939 910 919 953 968 982 979 958 980 980 929 960 964 920 941 962 948 948 950 964 1,002 1,000 Preliminary; December by Council of Economic Advisers. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted). 192 TABLE D-46.—Mortgage debt outstanding, by type of property and of financing, 1939-58 [Billions of dollars] Nonfarm properties 1- to 4-family houses End of period All properties Government underwritten Total Total Total FHA insured VA guaranteed Multifamily Farm and propcomerties Con- mercial venproptional * erties 1 2 1939 35.5 28.9 16.3 1.8 1.8 14.5 12.5 6.6 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 36.5 37.6 36.7 35.3 34.7 30.0 31.2 30.8 29.9 29.7 17.4 18.4 18.2 17.8 17.9 2.3 3.0 3.7 4.1 4.2 2.3 3.0 3.7 4.1 4.2 15.1 15.4 14.5 13.7 13.7 12.6 12.9 12.5 12.1 11.8 6.5 6.4 6.0 5.4 4.9 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 35.5 41.8 48.9 56.2 62.7 30.8 36.9 43.9 50.9 57.1 18.6 23.0 28.2 33.3 37.6 4.3 6.1 9.3 12.5 15.0 4.1 3.7 3.8 5.3 6.9 0.2 2.4 5.5 7.2 8.1 14.3 16.9 18.9 20.8 22.6 12.2 13.8 15.7 17.6 19.5 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.6 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 72.8 82.3 91.4 101.3 113.8 66.7 75.6 84.2 93.6 105.5 45.2 51.7 58.5 66.1 75.7 18.9 22.9 25.4 28.1 32.1 8.6 9.7 10.8 12.0 12.8 10.3 13.2 14.6 16.1 19.3 26.3 28.8 33.1 38.0 43.6 21.6 23.9 25.7 27.5 29.8 6.1 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.3 1955 1956 1957 3 1958 130.0 144.5 156.6 171.2 120.9 134.6 146.1 160.0 88.2 99.0 107.6 118.0 38.9 43.9 47.2 50.2 14.3 15.5 16.5 19.7 24.6 28.4 30.7 30.5 49.3 55.1 60.4 67.8 32.7 35.6 38.5 42.0 9.1 9.9 10.5 11.2 1956- First quarter Second quarter _ Third quarter Fourth quarter 133.5 137.5 141.3 144.5 124.1 127.9 131.5 134.6 90. 7 93.7 96.6 99.0 40.2 41.3 42.5 43.9 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.5 25.5 26.3 27.3 28.4 50.5 52.4 54.1 55.1 33.4 34.2 34.9 35.6 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.9 1957: First quarter Second quarter Third quarterFourth quarter 147.3 150.4 153.7 156.6 137.2 140.1 143.3 146.1 101.1 103.4 105.7 107.6 45.1 45.9 46.5 47.2 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.5 29.4 30.0 30.4 30.7 55.9 57.5 59.2 60.4 36.2 36.7 37.5 38.5 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.5 1958- First quarter 3 3 Second quarter Third quarter 3 Fourth quarter 3 159.1 162.6 166.7 171.2 148.5 151.7 155,7 160.0 109.3 111.7 114.8 118.0 47.7 48.3 49.2 50.2 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 61.6 63.4 65.6 67.8 39.1 40.0 40.9 42.0 10. 6 10.9 11.1 11.2 _ _ 1 Derived figures. Includes negligible amount of farm loans held by savings and loan associations. Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, estimated and compiled from data supplied by various Government and private organizations (except as noted). 2 3 193 TABLE D-47 .—Net public and private debt, 1929-58 * [Billions of dollars] Private End of period 2 Individual and noncorporate Corporate Fed- State and Nonfarm eral Total Gov- local governernTotal ment ment 2 ComShortTotal Longmerterm term Total Farm 3 Mortcial ConTotal gage and sumer financial* 1929 190.9 16.5 13.2 161.2 88.9 47.3 41.6 72.3 12.2 60.1 31.2 22.4 6.4 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 191.0 181.9 174.6 168.5 171.4 16.5 18.5 21.3 24.3 30.4 14.1 15.5 16.6 16.7 15.9 160.4 147.9 136.7 127.5 125.1 89.3 83.5 80.0 76.9 75.5 51.1 50.3 49.2 47.9 44.6 38.2 33.2 30.8 29.1 30.9 71.1 64.4 56.7 50.6 49.6 11.8 11.1 10.1 9.1 8.9 59.4 53.3 46.6 41.5 40.7 32.0 30.9 29.0 26.3 25.5 21.6 17.6 14.0 11.7 11.2 5.8 4.8 3.6 3.5 3.9 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 174.7 180.3 182.0 . . 179.6 183.2 34.4 37.7 39.2 40.5 42.6 16.0 16.2 16.1 16.0 16.3 124.2 126.4 126.7 123.1 124.3 74.8 76.1 75.8 73.3 73.5 43.6 42.5 43.5 44.8 44.4 31.2 33.5 32.3 28.4 29.2 49.4 50.3 50.9 49.8 50.8 9.0 8.6 8.6 9.0 8.8 40.4 41.7 42.3 40.9 42.0 24.7 24.4 24.3 24.5 25.0 10.8 11.2 11.3 10.1 9.8 4.9 6.1 6.7 6.3 7.2 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 189.9 211.6 259.0 313.6 370.8 44.8 56.3 101.7 154.4 211.9 16.5 16.3 15.8 14.9 14.1 128.6 139.0 141.5 144.3 144.8 75.6 83.4 91.6 95.5 94.1 43.7 43.6 42.7 41.0 39.8 31.9 39.8 49.0 54.5 54.3 53.0 55.6 49.9 48.8 50.7 9.1 9.2 8.9 8.2 7.7 43.9 46.4 41.0 40.5 43.0 26.0 27.2 26.8 26.2 26.1 9.5 10.0 8.1 9.5 11.8 8.3 9.2 6.0 4.9 5.1 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 406.3 397.4 417.4 433.6 448.4 252.7 229.7 223.3 216.5 218.6 13.7 13.6 14.4 16.2 18.1 139.9 85.3 154.1 93.5 179.7 108.9 200.9 117.8 211.7 118.0 38.3 41.3 46.1 52.5 56.5 47.0 52.2 62.8 65.3 61.5 54.6 60.6 70.8 83.1 93.7 7.2 7.6 8.6 10.8 11.9 47.4 53.0 62.2 72.3 81.8 27.0 32.5 38.7 45.1 50.6 14.8 12.1 11.9 12.9 13.9 5.7 8.4 11.6 14.4 17.3 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 490.3 524.0 555.2 586.4 611.8 218.7 218.5 222.9 228.1 230.2 20.7 23.3 25.8 28.6 33.4 250.9 282.2 306.5 329.7 348.2 142.1 162.5 171.0 179.5 182.8 60.1 66.6 73.3 78.3 82.9 81.9 95.9 97.7 101.2 100.0 108.8 119.7 135.5 150.2 165.4 12.2 13.6 15.1 16.9 17.6 96.6 106.1 120.3 133.3 147.8 59.4 67.4 75.2 83.8 94.7 15.8 16.1 17.8 18.4 20.8 21.4 22.6 27.4 31.2 32.3 1955 1956 1957 s 1958 672.2 699.8 725.8 757.9 231.5 225.4 224.4 232.5 38.4 42.7 46.7 50.9 402.3 431.7 454.7 474.5 212.1 224.2 232.8 236.0 90.0 97.4 106.0 113.5 122.2 126.7 126.8 122.5 190.2 207.5 221.9 238.5 18.8 19.5 20.3 22.0 171.4 188.0 201.7 216.5 108.8 121.2 131.7 144.3 24.0 24.6 25.2 27.5 38.7 42.1 44.8 44.7 1 Net public and private debt outstanding is a comprehensive aggregate of the indebtedness of borrowers after elimination of certain types of duplicating governmental and corporate debt. For a further explanation of the concept, se£ Survey of Current Business, October 1950. 2 Data for State and local government debt are for June 30 of each year. 3 Farm mortgages and farm production loans. Farmers' financial and consumer debt is included in the nonfarm categories. * Financial debt is debt owed to banks for purchasing or carrying securities, customers' debt to brokers, and debt owed to life insurance companies by policyholders. « Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Agriculture, Department of Commerce, Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation, and Interstate Commerce Commission (except as noted). 194 GOVERNMENT FINANCE TABLE D-48.—U. S. Government debt, by kind of obligation, 1929-58 [Billions of dollars] Interest -bearing public debt Gross public debt and guaranteed issues ! End of period 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 ._ 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 .1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 --1949 1950 1951 1952 . 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1957: January _ _ February March April May June. July August.. September October November December _ 1958: January February.. March April May -_ June July August September October November December __ _ . _. . . 16.3 16.0 17.8 20.8 24.0 31.5 35.1 39.1 41.9 44.4 47.6 50.9 64.3 112.5 170.1 232.1 278.7 259.5 257.0 252.9 257.2 256.7 259.5 267.4 275.2 278.8 280.8 276.7 275.0 7 283. 0 276.3 276.4 275.1 274.1 275.3 270.6 272.6 274.0 274.5 274 2 274.9 275.0 274.7 274.8 272.7 275.2 275.7 276.4 275.6 278.6 276.8 280.3 283.2 7 283. 0 Marketable public issues Nonmarketable public issues Shortterm issues 2 United States savings bonds Treasury bonds 3.3 2.9 2.8 5.9 7.5 11.1 14.2 12.5 12.5 9.8 7.7 7.5 8.0 27.0 47.1 69.9 78.2 57.1 47.7 45.9 50.2 58.3 65.6 68.7 77.3 76.0 81.3 79.5 82.1 92.2 79.6 80.0 79.1 79.1 79.5 74.9 77.9 79.4 81.0 80.8 81.9 82.1 82.5 78.1 75.2 78.3 78.3 75.7 75.8 81.6 81.9 86.4 89.6 92.2 11.3 11.3 13.5 13.4 14.7 15.4 14.3 19.5 20.5 24.0 26.9 28.0 33.4 49.3 67.9 91.6 120.4 119.3 117.9 111.4 104.8 94.0 76.9 79.8 77.2 81.8 81.9 80.8 82.1 83.4 80.8 80.8 80.8 80.8 80.8 80.8 80.8 80.8 80.8 81.4 81.4 82.1 82.1 86.3 87.7 87.7 87.6 90.9 90.5 87.6 85.7 85.7 85.7 83.4 0.2 .5 1.0 1.4 2.2 3.2 6.1 15.0 27.4 40.4 48.2 49.8 52.1 55.1 56.7 58.0 57.6 57.9 57.7 57.7 57.9 56.3 52.5 51.2 56.0 55.8 55.6 55.4 55.2 54.6 54.3 54.0 53.8 53.5 53.2 52.5 52.3 52.3 52.3 52.2 52.1 52.0 51.9 51.9 51.8 51.7 51.7 51.2 Treasury tax and savings notes 2.5 6.4 8.6 9.8 8.2 5.7 5.4 4.6 7.6 8.6 7.5 5.8 6.0 4.5 (56) (6) () (6) (66) () (66) (6) ( 6) () (66) (6 ) (6) (6) ( 6) () (66) (6) () (•) (6) («) (66) (6) () («) (66) () Investment bonds 3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 13.0 13.4 12.9 12.7 12.3 11.6 10.3 9.0 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.1 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.0 Special issues 4 0.6 .8 .4 .4 .4 .6 .7 .6 2.2 3.2 4.2 5.4 7.0 9.0 12.7 16.3 20.0 24.6 29.0 31.7 33.9 33.7 35.9 39.2 41.2 42.6 43.9 45.6 45.8 44.8 45.3 45.5 45.6 45.2 46.1 46.8 46.3 46.7 46.2 46.1 46.0 45.8 45.5 46.0 45.8 45.4 46.1 46.2 45.9 46.3 46.0 45.4 45.1 44.8 1 Total includes non-interest-bearing debt, fully guaranteed securities (except those held by the Treasury), Postal Savings bonds, prewar bonds, adjusted service bonds, depositary bonds, and armed forces leave bonds, not shown separately. Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation. 2 Bills, certificates of indebtedness, and notes. 3 Series A bonds and, beginning in April 1951, Series B convertible bonds. 4 Issued to U. S. Government investment accounts. These accounts also held $9.7 billion of public marketable and nonmarketable issues on December 31, 1958. 56 Less than $50 million. The last series of treasury savings notes matured in April 1956. 7 Of this amount, $282.6 billion was subject to the statutory debt limitation of $288 billion. Source: Treasury Department. 195 TABLE D--49 .—Estimated ownership of Federal obligations, 1939-58 [Par values 1, billions of dollars] Gross public debt and guaranteed issues 2 End of period 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 19588 1957: January February March April May June. July August September October November December 1958: January February March April May June __ July August September October November 8... December s _ _ _ Held by others Held by U.S. GovMutual ernsavings State Total ment MiscelCombanks Other and Federal invest- Total Reserve mercial and laneous corporlocal Individin4 3 uals 6 invesment Banks banks surance ations govern-s tors 7 accomments counts panies 47.6 50.9 64.3 112.5 170.1 232.1 278.7 259. 5 257.0 252.9 257.2 256.7 259.5 267.4 275.2 278.8 280.8 276.7 275.0 283.0 276.3 276.4 275.1 274.1 275.3 270.6 272.6 274.0 274.5 274.2 274.9 275.0 274.7 274.8 272.7 275. 2 275.7 276.4 275.6 278.6 276.8 280.3 283.2 283.0 6.5 7.6 9.5 12.2 16.9 21.7 27.0 30.9 34.4 37.3 39.4 39.2 42.3 45.9 48.3 49.6 51.7 54.0 55.2 54.5 53.9 54.1 54.2 53.7 54.9 55.6 55.2 55.8 55.4 55.4 55.3 55.2 55.1 55.4 55.4 55.2 55.8 55.9 55.6 56.0 55.6 55.1 54.8 54.5 41.1 43.3 54.7 100.2 153.2 210.5 251.6 228.6 222.6 215.5 217.8 217. 5 217.2 221.6 226.9 229.2 229.1 222.7 219.8 228.5 222.4 222.3 221.0 220.4 220.5 215.1 217.4 218.2 219.1 218.7 219.6 219.8 219.6 219.4 217.4 220.0 220.0 220.5 220.0 222.6 221.2 225.3 228.4 228.5 2.5 2.2 2.3 6.2 11.5 18.8 24.3 23.3 22.6 23.3 18.9 20.8 23.8 24.7 25.9 24.9 24.8 24.9 24.2 26.4 23.4 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.4 23.5 23.3 23.3 23.7 24.2 23.3 23.2 23.6 23.7 24.2 25.4 24.5 25.3 25.0 25.4 26.2 26.4 1 2 15.9 17.3 21.4 41.1 59.9 77.7 90.8 74.5 68.7 62.5 66.8 61.8 61.6 63.4 63.7 69.2 62.0 59.3 59.1 67.0 58.3 57.7 58.1 58.0 57.7 55.8 56.8 56.6 58.3 58.1 58.2 59.1 58.6 59.4 59.4 63.2 63.6 64.9 65.0 66.4 65.5 66.7 67.7 67.0 9.4 10.1 11.9 15.8 21.2 28.0 34.7 36.7 35.9 32.7 31.5 29.6 26.3 25.5 25.0 23.8 22.8 20.9 IP. 6 19.5 20.9 20.8 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.0 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 2.2 2.0 4.0 10.1 16.4 21.4 22.2 15.3 14.1 14.8 16.8 19.7 20.7 19.9 21.5 19.2 23.0 18.2 16.5 17.3 19.9 20.6 17.7 17.6 18.2 15.4 16.0 16.5 15.7 15.9 16.5 16.5 17.3 17.2 15.4 14.6 14.7 13.3 13.9 14.6 14.3 15.9 16.9 17.3 0.4 .5 .7 1.0 2.1 4.3 6.5 6.3 7.3 7.9 8.1 8.8 9.6 11.1 12.7 14.4 15.1 16.1 17.0 17.2 16.2 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.0 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.1 17.0 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.2 10.1 10.6 13.6 23.7 37.6 53.3 64.1 64.2 65.7 65.5 66.3 66.3 64.6 65.1 64.9 63.6 65.8 67.3 66.8 64.9 67.3 67.6 68.4 68.2 67.9 67.8 67.9 68.4 68.5 67.8 67.6 66.8 67.1 66.8 66.9 66.4 66.1 65.7 65.3 65.0 64.8 64.9 64.9 64.9 0.7 .7 .9 2.3 4.4 7.0 9.1 8.1 8.4 8.9 9.4 10.5 10.6 11.7 13.2 13.9 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.1 16.4 16.0 16.2 15.9 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.2 15.9 15.4 15.7 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.0 16.4 United States savings bonds, series A-F and J, are included at current redemption value. Excludes guaranteed securities held by the Treasury. Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation. 3 Includes commercial banks, trust companies, and stock savings banks in the United States and in Territories and possessions; figures exclude securities held in trust departments. Since the estimates in this table are on the basis of par values and include holdings of banks in United States Territories and possessions, they do not agree with the estimates in Table D-41, which are based on book values and relate only to banks within the continental United States. 4 Exclusive of banks and insurance companies. s Includes trust, sinking, and investment funds of State and local governments and their agencies, and of 6Territories and possessions. Includes partnerships and personal trust accounts. 7 Includes savings and loan associations, nonprofit institutions, corporate pension trust funds, dealers and brokers, and investments of foreign balances and international accounts in this country. Beginning with December 1946, the foreign accounts include investments by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Monetary Fund in special non-interest-bearing notes issued by8 the U. S. Government. Beginning with June 30, 1947, includes holdings of Federal land banks. Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Treasury Department (except as noted). 196 TABLE D-50.—Federal budget receipts and expenditures and the public debt, 1929-60 [Millions of dollars] Net budget Budget ex- Surplus or Public debt receipts 1 penditures deficit (-) at end 2of year Period Fiscal year: 1929 _ 3 861 3 127 4,058 3 116 1 924 2 021 3 064 3 320 3 577 4 659 4 623 6 694 738 462 —2 735 —2 602 —3 630 16 185 16 801 19 487 22* 539 27 053 3 730 4 069 4 979 5,615 4 996 6 521 8 493 7 756 6 792 8 858 2 791 —4 425 —2 777 —1 177 —3 862 28 33 36 37 40 701 779 425 165 440 5 144 7 103 12 555 21, 987 43,635 9 062 13 262 34 046 79 407 95, 059 —3 918 —6 159 —21 490 — 57 420 —51 423 42 48 72 136 201 968 961 422 696 003 44, 475 39, 771 39 786 41 488 37, 696 98 416 60,448 39 032 33 069 39 507 —53 941 —20 676 754 8 419 — 1 811 258 269 258 252 252 682 422 286 292 770 36, 495 47, 568 61, 391 64,825 64, 655 39, 617 44 058 65, 408 74 274 67, 772 -3, 122 3 510 —4,017 —9 449 —3, 117 257, 357 255 222 259 105 266 071 271 260 60,390 68 165 71,029 69 117 68,000 64, 570 66 540 69, 433 71 936 80,871 —4, 180 1 626 1,596 —2 819 -12,871 274 374 272 751 270 527 276 343 285,000 I9603-- 77, 100 77, 030 70 285,000 Calendar year: 1946 _ 1947 1948 1949 38, 568 40, 389 40, 864 37, 514 41, 080 37 955 35, 623 41, 106 -2, 512 2 434 5,241 —3 592 259, 149 256 900 252 800 257 130 37, 306 52 979 64,840 63, 841 61,171 37,728 56 337 70,682 72 997 64, 854 -422 —3 358 —5, 842 —9, 157 -3, 683 256, 708 259 419 267, 391 275 168 278, 750 63, 358 70 994 72, 284 4 68, 700 66, 129 67 216 71, 692 4 75, 800 —2 771 3 779 592 4 _7; 100 280 769 276 628 274, 898 282, 922 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 ._ 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 _ - - 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 -_ _ . 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 . - . _ 1950. 1951 1952. 1953 1954 _-. _ . 1955 1956 1957 1958 19593 1950 1951 ]952 1953 1954 . - . 1955 1956 1957 -. 1958 -. 734 16 931 1 Gross receipts less refunds of receipts and transfers of tax receipts to the Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund, the Federal disability insurance trust fund, the railroad retirement account, and the highway trust fund. 2 Excludes guaranteed obligations. The change in the public debt from year to year reflects not only the budget surplus or deficit but also changes in the Treasury's cash balances, the effect of certain trust fund transactions, and direct borrowing from the public by certain Government enterprises. 3 Estimate. « Estimated by Council of Economic Advisers from data available as of January 15, 1959. May therefore differ from figures in Treasury Department monthly statement of receipts and expenditures to be released about January 20, 1959. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget (except as noted). 197 489916 O—59 TABLE D-51.—Federal budget receipts by source and expenditures by function, fiscal years 7946-60 [Millions of dollars] Budget expenditures by function Budget receipts by source Fiscal year All Indi- Corpovidual ration Excise other Total income reincome taxes taxes taxes ceipts i Veter- Agrimil culans' Major servture All naand Inter- other Total tional ices agriexpendest and cultuitures 2 security beneral refits sources Budget surplus or deficit (-) 1946 1947 1948 1949 39, 771 39, 786 41,488 37, 696 16, 157 17,835 19, 305 15, 548 11,833 8,569 9,678 11, 195 6,999 7,207 7,356 7,502 4,782 6,175 5,150 3,451 60,448 39, 032 33,069 39,507 43, 207 14, 372 11,771 12,907 4,416 7,381 6,654 6,726 747 1,243 575 2,512 4,816 5,012 5,248 5, 445 7,262 -20, 676 11,022 754 8,820 8,419 11,917 -1,811 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 36, 495 47,568 61, 391 64,825 64,655 15, 745 21,643 27, 913 30, 108 29,542 10, 448 14, 106 21,225 21, 238 21, 101 7,549 8,648 8,851 9,868 9,945 2,752 3,171 3,402 3,610 4,067 39, 617 44, 058 65, 408 74, 274 67, 772 13,009 22.444 43, 976 50,363 46,904 6,646 5,342 4,863 4,298 4,256 2,783 650 1,045 2,936 2,557 5.817 5,714 5,934 6,583 6,470 11,361 9,907 9,590 10,094 7,584 1955 1956 1957 1958 19593... 60,390 28, 747 68, 165 32,188 71, 029 35, 620 69, 117 34, 724 68,000 36,900 17, 861 20,880 21, 167 20,074 17,000 9,131 9,929 9, 055 8,612 8,467 4,650 5,169 5,187 5,708 5,633 64,570 66,540 69,433 71, 936 80, 871 40, 626 40,641 43, 270 44, 142 46, 120 4,457 4,756 4,793 5,026 5,198 4,389 4,868 4,526 4,389 6,775 6,438 6,846 7,308 7,689 7,601 8,661 —4,180 9,428 1,626 9,536 1,596 10, 689 -2, 819 15, 177 -12,871 21, 448 8,945 6,007 77,030 45, 805 5,088 5,996 8,096 12, 046 19603,. . 77, 100 40,700 -3, 122 3,510 -4,017 -9, 449 -3, 117 70 1 Includes employment taxes, estate and gift taxes, customs revenues, and miscellaneous receipts. 2 Includes expenditures for international affairs and finance (including defense support under the mutual security program), labor and welfare, natural resources, commerce and housing, and general government; also includes adjustment to daily Treasury statement (for actuals) and allowance for contingencies (for estimates). 3 Estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 198 TABLE D-52.—Government cash receipts from and payments to the public, 7946-60 LBillions of dollars] Total Period Calendar year: 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952.. . 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 < . . Fiscal year: 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 8 1959 Federal 1 State and local 2 Cash receipts Cash payments Excess of receipts or of payments (-) Cash receipts Cash payments Excess of receipts or of paymerits (-) Cash receipts Cash payments 52.9 57.4 60.0 57.9 50.9 50.7 51.8 59.8 2.0 6.7 8.2 -1.8 41.4 44.3 44.9 41.3 41.4 38.6 36.9 42.6 (3) 5.7 8.0 -1.3 11.4 13.1 15.1 16.6 9.5 12.1 14.9 17.1 1.9 1.0 .2 -.5 60.4 79.1 93.1 93.4 93.3 61.1 78.3 94.7 99.3 95.2 -.6 .9 -1.6 -5.9 -2.0 42.4 59.3 71.4 70.1 68.6 42.0 58.0 73.1 76.3 69.7 .4 1.2 -1.6 -6.1 -1.1 18.0 19.9 21.7 23.2 24.7 19.1 20.2 21.6 23.0 25.6 -1.1 -.4 .1 .3 -.9 98.4 110.2 116.3 115.1 100.2 105. 2 116.3 124.2 -1.8 4.9 (3) -9.1 71.4 80.3 84.5 81.7 72.2 74.8 83.3 88.8 -.7 5.5 1.2 -7.1 26.9 29.8 31.8 33.4 28.0 30.4 33.0 35.4 -1.1 -.6 -1.1 -2.0 93.9 95.6 99.1 96.1 -5.2 -.5 71.5 71.6 76.8 71.9 -5.3 -.2 22.4 24.0 22.3 24.2 .1 -.2 93.5 105.8 113.1 114.4 97.5 101.7 111.6 117.7 -4.0 4.1 1.5 -3.3 67.8 77.1 82.1 81.9 81.7 70.5 72.6 80.0 83.4 94.9 -2.7 4.5 2.1 -1.5 -13.2 25.7 28.7 31.0 32.5 27.0 29.1 31.6 34.3 -1.3 -.4 -.6 -1.8 93.5 92.9 .6 I960 8 1 Excess of receipts or of payments (-) For derivation of Federal cash receipts and payments, see Budget of the United States Government for the Fiscal Year ending June SO, 1960, and Table D-54. 2 Estimated by Council of Economic Advisers from receipts and expenditures in the national income accounts. Cash receipts consist of personal tax and nontax receipts, indirect business tax and nontax accruals, and corporate tax accruals adjusted to a collection basis. Cash payments are total expenditures less Federal grants-in-aid and less contributions for social insurance. (Federal grants-in-aid are therefore excluded from State and local receipts and payments and included only in Federal payments.) See Table D-53. a Less than $50 million. 4 Preliminary. « Estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department, Bureau of the Budget, Department of Commerce, and Council of Economic Advisers. 199 TABLE D-53.—Government receipts and expenditures as shown in the national income accounts, 1955-58* [Calendar years, billions of dollars] 1956 1955 Receipt or expenditure 19583 1957 First SecFirst SecFirst SecFirst Second Year half ond Year half ond Year half Year half 2 half 2 half 2 half 2 hond 2 3 a alf* Total government Receipts - Expenditures Excess of receipts or of expenditures (— ) 101.5 98.6 98 3 104.4 110.3 108.8 112.0 116.2 116.4 116.0 114.5 110 8 118 1 97.6 99.4 104.1 101.8 106.4 114.5 113.7 115.8 124.5 121.6 127.4 2.9 .7 5.0 6.3 7.0 5.6 1.7 2.7 72 8 70 5 75.0 78.7 77.7 79.8 82.5 83.0 82.0 79.0 76 1 81 8 31 5 31 0 32 1 35 2 34 8 35 6 37 4 37 2 37 6 37.1 36 6 37 7 20.9 19.6 22.2 21.4 21.4 21.4 20.7 21.3 20.0 17.7 15.5 19.8 11.0 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.2 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.2 11.9 12.0 11.8 9.3 90 9.6 10.5 10 2 10 8 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.1 12 4 68 9 68 3 69 4 71 9 70 2 73 6 79 6 78 9 80.4 87 0 84 4 89 8 45.3 14.0 12.5 15 44.9 14.1 12 4 17 45.7 45.7 13.9 14.9 12.6 13.5 13 14 44.6 14.6 13.2 14 46.8 49.4 15.2 17.3 13.8 15.9 14 15 49.4 16.9 15.3 16 49.4 17.8 16.6 1.3 51.6 21.2 20.0 1.2 50.2 20.5 19.3 12 53.0 22.0 20.8 12 30 4.9 3.0 4.9 32 5.0 3.3 5.2 3.1 5.1 3.4 5.4 4.1 5.6 3.8 5.6 4.4 5.7 5.1 5.7 4.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.8 2.2 5.6 6.8 7.5 6.2 2.9 4.0 1.6 -8.1 -8.2 -8.0 .2 -10.0 -10.8 -9 4 Federal Government Receipts Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals ... Indirect business tax and nontax accruals. Contributions for social insurance E xpenditures Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments To persons .- --Foreign (net) Qrants-in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Excess of receipts or of expenditures (— ) State and local governments: Receipts .. 31.7 30.8 32.6 34.9 34.2 35.6 37.8 37.2 38.4 40.6 39.4 Personal tax and non5.4 tax receipts 4.2 4.2 5.2 5.4 5.8 4.8 5.0 4.3 4.8 5.8 Corporate profits tax 9 .7 accruals .9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Indirect business tax 21.2 25.4 26.2 24.4 25.2 25.6 and nontax accruals- 21.8 26.7 22.5 24.0 23.6 Contributions for so2.1 2.1 2.0 cial insurance 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7 Federal grants-in-aid.. 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.4 4.1 3.8 4.4 5.1 4.6 32 7 32.3 33 2 35 5 34 7 36 2 39 0 38 6 39.8 42.6 41.8 Expenditures Purchases of goods and services 30.3 29.8 30.8 33.1 32.4 33.9 36.3 36.0 37.0 39.6 38.8 Transfer payments 4.0 4.3 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.8 4.3 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 .4 .6 .6 .6 Net interest paid .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 Less: Current surplus of Government en1.8 terprises _. .- .1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 Excess of receipts or of expenditures (— ) -1.0 -1.4 -.5 -.6 -.4 -.7 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.4 42.0 5.9 10 27.2 2.2 5.7 43.4 40.4 4.4 .6 2.0 -1.4 1 These accounts, like the cash budget, include the transactions of the trust accounts. Unlike both the conventional budget and the cash statement, they exclude certain capital and lending transactions. In general, they do net use the cash basis for transactions with business. Instead, corporate profits taxes are included in receipts on an accrual instead of a cash basis; expenditures are timed with the delivery instead of the payment for goods and services; and CCC guaranteed price-support crop loans financed by banks are counted as expenditures when the loans are made, not when CCC redeems them. 2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates. 3 Preliminary; fourth quarter estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments are reflected in Federal expenditures and State and local receipts and expenditures. Total government receipts and expenditures have been adjusted to eliminate this duplication. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 20O TABLE D-54.—Reconciliation of Federal Government receipts and expenditures in the conventional budget and the consolidated cash statement with receipts and expenditures in the national income accounts, fiscal years 1956-58 [Billions of dollars] I^iscal yean Receipts or expenditures 1956 1957 1958 RECEIPTS Budget receipts Less* Intragovernmental transactions _ _ ._ Receipts from exercise of monetary authority. - _ Plus* Trust fund receipts Equals: Federal receipts from the public (consolidated cash receipts) _ . Less: Adjustment for agency coverage: District of Columbia revenues _. Plus: Adjustments for netting and consolidation: Federal Government contributions to: Employee retirement funds Veterans' life insurance funds Federal Government employee contributions to employee retirement funds _- . . . _ ._ _ Interest dividends, and other earnings Adjustments for timing: Excess of taxes included in national income accounts over cash collections: Personal Corporate profits -.. . Other Miscellaneous Less: Adjustments for capital transactions: Realization upon loans and investments Proceeds from sale of government property Recoveries and refunds Equals: Receipts —national income accounts. .._ _ _. . 68 2 27 2 71 0 32 0 14 4 82 1 2 2 1 o o .6 — 4 7 5 7 g 2 .7 — 4 _ 3 1 2 2 _ i —2 3 1 _ 2 3 5 .6 76.4 3 4 4 81.7 3 3 5 78 3 66.5 2 7 9 9.4 .3 72.6 69 4 32 — 8 13 0 .0 80.0 71 9 35 5 16 1 -.6 83.4 .2 .2 .2 2 .1 5 o o .6 — .8 .7 — 6 .7 -6 .4 6 .3 4 .3 -1.3 — .2 -.8 — 1.0 .1 .6 -1.0 .1 1.1 .0 .8 -.2 69.7 1.0 .4 .0 .5 .7 76.5 .1 1.1 .1 -.2 .4 82.5 o 11 7 77. 1 o 5 69 1 35 1 16 3 81 9 2 7 EXPENDITURES Budget expenditures - --- _ _ _ Less* Intragovernmental transactions Accrued interest and other noncash expenditures (net) Plus* Trust fund expenditures Government-sponsored enterprise expenditures (net) -- -. Equals: Federal payments to the public (consolidated cash expenditures) . _ Less: Adjustment for agency coverage: District of Columbia expenditures ._. _ .. Plus: Adjustments for netting and consolidation: Federal Government contributions to: Employee retirement funds Veterans' life insurance funds Federal Government employee contributions to employee retirement funds Interest received and proceeds of government sales Adjustments for timing: Accrued interest on savings bonds and Treasury bills Commodity Credit Corporation guaranteed non-recourse loans (net change) Increase in clearing account ._ _ ._ . M i«?cellaneous Less: Adjustments for capital transactions: Loans and other adjustments: Federal National Mortgage Association secondary market operations Other -- - Purchase of land and existing assets Trust and deposit fund expenditures Redemption of International Monetary Fund notes _ _ _ Equals* Expenditures — national income accounts NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department, Bureau of the Budget, and Department of Commerce. 2OI 7 TABLE D—55.—^-State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected fiscal years, 1927—57 [Millions of dollars] Fiscal year J Revenues by source 2 Expenditures by function 2 ReveSales nue Corpo- from and IndiAll Prop- gross vidual ration Fed- other net Total erty reincome eral revetaxes ceipts taxes income Gov- nue 3 taxes erntaxes ment Edu- High- Public All Total cation wel- other ways fare 4 1927 7,271 4,730 470 70 92 116 1,793 7,210 2,235 1,809 151 3,015 1932 1934 1936 1938 7,267 7,713 8,504 9,228 4,487 4,076 4,093 4,440 752 1,008 1,484 1,794 74 80 153 218 79 49 113 165 232 1,051 1,057 SCO 1,643 1,449 1,604 1,811 7,765 7,181 7,644 8,757 2,311 1,831 2,177 2,491 1,741 1,509 1,425 1,650 444 889 827 1,069 3,269 2,952 3,215 3,547 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 9,609 10, 417 10,908 12, 357 17, 251 4,430 4,537 4,604 4,986 6,126 1,982 2,351 2,289 2,986 4,442 224 276 342 422 543 156 272 451 447 592 945 858 954 855 1,861 1,872 9,229 2,123 9,190 2,269 8,863 2,661 11, 028 3,685 17,684 2,638 2,586 2,793 3,356 5,379 1,573 1,490 1,200 1,672 3, 036 1,156 1,225 1,133 1,409 2,099 3,862 3,889 3,737 4,591 7,170 1950 1952 1953 1954 20, 911 25, 181 27, 307 29, 013 7,349 8,652 9,375 9,967 5,154 6,357 6,927 7,276 788 998 1,065 1,127 593 846 817 778 2,486 2,566 2,870 2,966 4,541 5,763 6,252 6,897 22, 787 7,177 26, 098 8,318 27, 910 9,390 30, 701 10, 557 3,803 4,650 4,987 5,527 2,940 8,867 2,788 10, 340 2,914 10, 619 3,060 11,556 1955 1956 . 19575 31, 073 10, 735 34, 667 11, 749 38, 310 13, 097 7,643 8,691 9,461 1,237 1,538 1,767 744 890 984 3,131 3,335 3,838 7,584 33, 724 11,907 8,465 36, 711 13, 220 9,163 40, 438 14,501 6,452 6,953 7,762 3,168 12, 196 3,139 13, 397 3,411 14,763 1 2 Fiscal years not the same for all governments. Excludes revenues or expenditures of publicly owned utilities and liquor stores, and of insurance-trust activities. Intergovernmental receipts and payments between governments in these categories are also excluded. s4 Includes licenses and other taxes and charges and miscellaneous revenues. Includes expenditures for health, hospitals, police, local fire protection, natural resources, sanitation, housing and community redevelopment, local recreation, general control, interest on general debt, and other and unallocable expenditures. 5 Preliminary. NOTE.—Data are not available for intervening years. See Table D^47 for net debt of State and local governments. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census). 202 CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCE TABLE D-56.—Profits before and after taxes', all private corporations. 1929-58 [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits after taxes Corporate profits before taxes Corporate tax liability 1 1929 9.6 1.4 8.3 5.8 2.4 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 3.3 -.8 -3.0 .2 1.7 .8 .5 .4 .5 .7 2.5 -1.3 -3.4 -.4 1.0 5.5 4.1 2.6 2.1 2.6 -3.0 -5.4 -6.0 -2.4 -1.6 3.1 5.7 6.2 3.3 6.4 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.4 2.2 4.3 4.7 2.3 5.0 2.9 4.5 4.7 3.2 3.8 9.3 17.0 20.9 24.6 23.3 2.8 7.6 11.4 14.1 12.9 6.5 9.4 9.5 10.5 10.4 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.7 2.4 4.9 5.2 6.0 5.7 19.0 22.6 29.5 33.0 26.4 10.7 9.1 11.3 12.5 10.4 8.3 13.4 18.2 20.5 16.0 4.7 5.8 6.5 7.2 7.5 3.6 7.7 11.7 13.3 8.5 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 40.6 42.2 36.7 38.3 34.1 17.9 22.4 19.5 20.2 17.2 22.8 19.7 17.2 18.1 16.8 9.2 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.8 13.6 10.7 8.3 8.9 7.0 1955 1956 1957 44.9 45.5 43.4 <36.4 21.8 22.4 21.6 18.5 23.0 23.1 21.8 17.8 11.2 12.0 12.4 12.3 11.8 11.0 9.4 5.6 Period . 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 . 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 . . 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 . 19583 _ .. .- . Total Dividend payments Undistributed profits (2) -.7 -.2 -.9 1.2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1956: First quarter Second quarter _ . Third quarter Fourth quarter, _ _ . 1957: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter... __ __ . . . . _ __ 1958: First quarter. Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 3 _ ... ... ... 46.2 44.8 44.3 46.7 22.8 22.1 21.8 23.0 23.4 22.7 22.4 23.7 11.7 12.0 12.2 11.8 11.7 10.7 10.2 11.9 46.1 43.5 44.2 39.9 23.0 21.7 22.0 19.9 23.1 21.8 22.1 20.0 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.0 10.6 9.2 9.4 8.0 31.7 32.0 37.9 M4.0 16.1 16.3 19.3 22.4 15.5 15.7 18.6 21.6 12.5 12.4 12.5 11.8 3.0 3.3 6.1 9.8 1 Federal and State corporate income and excess profits taxes. 23 $48 million. Preliminary; fourth quarter by Council of Economic Advisers. 4 Provisional. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See Table D-9 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Series revised beginning 1946. For details, see U. S. Income and Output, A Supplement to the Survey of Current Business, 1959. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 203 TABLE D-57.—Relation of profits before and after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, private manufacturing corporations, by asset size class, 1956-58 [Thousands of dollars} Period All asset sizes Under 250 250-999 1,000-4,999 5,000-99,999 100,000 and over Ratio of pro fits (annual rate) to stockholders' equity— percent Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes 1956: First quarter Second quarter, _ _ Third quarter Fourth quarter... 23.8 24.2 20.2 22.3 12.5 13.0 11.0 12.6 17.3 24.0 25.2 13.0 10.3 15.6 15.3 5.8 18.9 22.1 23.0 12.8 9.5 11.5 11.7 5.8 21.4 21.5 21.4 18.9 10.6 10.4 10.7 9.1 22.8 24.1 22.4 22.4 11.2 12.0 11.1 11.4 25.4 24.9 18.6 24.0 13.7 13.9 10.8 14.5 1957: First quarter Second quarter. _. Third quarter Fourth quarter... 22.5 21.6 19.1 16.8 11.9 11.6 10.5 9.8 15.6 19.4 18.2 5.5 8.4 11.1 11.0 .7 15.7 19.2 20.4 7.4 7.5 10.0 10.1 2.4 18.8 19.7 18.7 12.2 8.9 9.6 9.1 5.4 20.8 21.4 20.0 16.6 10.1 10.6 10.0 8.6 24.5 22.2 18.8 18.7 13.6 12.4 10.9 11.8 1958: First quarter Second quarter. _. Third quarter 12.9 13.9 15.9 6.8 7.8 9.0 1.5 -3.0 9.2 4.7 16.7 10.3 7.6 12.4 16.3 2.1 5.7 8.9 8.9 13.0 16.8 2.9 5.9 8.0 12.9 14.3 17.0 6.1 7.1 8.5 14.3 14.1 15.3 8.4 8.6 9.3 Profits per dollar of sales— cents Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After Before After taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes 1956: First quarter 10.2 Second quarter 10.3 Third quarter 9.0 Fourth quarter. . . 9.3 5.3 5.5 4.9 5.2 3.3 4.6 4.9 2.4 1.9 3.0 3.0 1.1 4.6 5.2 5.3 2.9 2.3 2.7 2.7 1.3 6.9 6.9 6.9 5.9 3.4 3.3 3.5 2.9 9.8 10.1 9.7 9.4 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 13.1 12.8 10.5 11.9 7.0 7.1 6.1 7.2 1957: First quarter Second quarter. _ _ Third quarter Fourth quarter... 9.7 9.4 8.5 7.6 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.5 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.1 .1 3.7 4.5 4.7 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.3 .6 6.3 6.3 6.0 3.9 3.0 3.1 2.9 1.7 9.0 9.1 8.8 7.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 3.9 12.4 11.6 10.3 10.2 6.9 6.5 6.0 6.5 1958: First quarter _ Second quarter, _. Third quarter 6.4 6.8 7.7 3.4 3.8 4.4 .3 1.9 3.3 -.6 .9 2.0 1.9 2.9 3.8 .5 1.4 2.1 3.1 4.4 5.4 1.0 2.0 2.6 6.4 6.9 8.0 3.0 3.4 4.0 8.7 8.6 9.4 5.1 5.2 5.7 NOTE.—Data on a comparable basis are not available for earlier periods. For details concerning compilation of the series, see Quarterly Financial Reports for U. S. Manufacturing Corporations, Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission. Sources: Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission. 204 TABLE D-58.—Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, private manufacturing corporations, by industry group, 1956-58 Durable goods industries Period All private manufacturing corporations Lumber and Furwood niture prod- and ucts fix(except tures furniture) PriStone, mary clay, iron and and glass steel prod- inucts dustries Primary nonferrous metal industries MaFab- chinricated ery (exmetal cept prod- elecucts trical) MisEleccellatrical MoIn- neous ma- tor Other stru- manchin- vehitrans- ments ufacery, cles porta- and turreequip- and tion ing ment, equip- equip- lated (inand ment ment prod- cludsupucts ing plies ordnance) Ratio of profits after Federal taxes (annual rate) to stockholders' equity — percent 1956: First quarter Second quarter.. Third quarter.-Fourth quarter.. 12.5 13.0 11.0 12.6 9.1 11.0 9.0 5.6 10.7 11.4 13.0 11.2 12.6 17.2 15.9 13.6 14.7 15.1 6.0 15.1 19.9 18.0 13.9 14.1 10.9 11.5 11.0 9.4 11.9 14.2 12.0 12.3 10.3 12.1 11.6 11.4 16.7 13.1 6.9 15.7 14.3 16.7 13.6 16.1 8.7 11.9 12.5 16.3 9.7 10.4 13.3 13.0 1957: First quarter 11.9 Second quarter.. 11.6 Third quarter. .. 10.5 Fourth quarter _. 9.8 2.0 6.2 6.5 4.1 7.3 9.2 9.7 7.8 10.0 13.7 13.8 11.9 13.8 13.0 9.9 8.9 12.4 9.7 8.1 7.1 9.5 10.9 11.0 5.8 12.3 13.0 10.1 7.5 13 9 12^9 11.5 11.9 18.8 15.3 9.2 13.6 14.8 16.4 13.9 13.8 10.6 12.4 11.6 13.2 6.9 7.5 10.4 5.8 .2 3.1 11.0 2.0 3.4 8.7 4.0 11.1 14.9 5.3 6.5 6.5 5.7 4.6 5.6 4.9 7.3 8.8 5.7 7.7 7.2 8.5 9.2 10.3 8.3 5.9 1.6 11.0 9.9 10.1 6.9 9.3 12.1 1.0 6.9 14.7 1958: First quarter Second quarter _Third quarter. ._ 6.8 7.8 9.0 Profits after taxes per dollar of sales — cents 1956: First quarter Second quarter .. Third quarter. _. Fourth quarter.. 5.3 5.5 4.9 5.2 4.4 4.7 3.8 2.5 3.1 3.3 4.0 3.1 7.3 9.1 8.6 7.8 7.3 7.2 4.1 7.5 10.2 9.8 8.1 8.7 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.5 5.2 5.8 5.3 5.2 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.5 6.0 5.0 3.3 5.8 3.6 3.8 3.2 3.2 4.5 5.8 6.1 6.6 3.2 3.4 4.1 3.8 1957: First quarter Second quarter. . Third quarter. .. Fourth quarter.. 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.4 1.0 2.9 3.1 2.1 2.3 2.8 3.1 2.4 6.6 8.1 7.8 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.1 5.8 8.1 6.6 6.0 5.5 3.7 4.1 4.2 2.3 5.3 5.5 4.7 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 6.3 5.7 4.0 5.4 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.9 5.3 5.8 5.7 6.0 2.4 2.4 3.2 1.9 1958: 3.4 First quarter Second quarter. . 3.8 Third quarter. .. 4.4 .1 1.6 5.0 .7 1.2 2.8 3.1 7.3 8.9 4.2 5.0 5.0 4.8 3.9 4.4 2.2 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 3.5 3.9 3.7 2.9 1.0 2.6 2.3 2.5 3.7 4.8 6.2 .(> 2.3 4.7 See footnotes at end of table, p. 206. 205 TABLE D-58.—Relation of profits after taxes to stockholders' equity and to sales, private manufacturing corporations, by industry group, 1956—58—Continued Nondurable goods industries Period Food TexToand tile kin- bacco mill mandred ufac- prodprod- tures ucts ucts ProdPrintucts of ing petroand leum Appub- Chemparel Paper Petro- and Rub- Leather lish- icals and and leum and allied and ber ing allied refin- coal related prod- (ex(ex- prod- leather prodprod- ucts cept prod- ing cept ucts ucts ucts petronews- ucts leum parefinpers) ing) Ratio of profits after Federal taxes (annual rate) to stockholders' equity — percent 1956: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 82 9.9 10.4 8.7 10 0 12.0 12 7 12.1 6.4 4.8 5.5 6.4 6.8 4.5 10.9 10.0 12.1 12.2 11.0 11.3 16.3 15.0 11.0 10.0 15.0 14.7 13. 1 13.9 13.1 14.0 13.2 15.3 7.7 11.1 12.0 8.4 11.9 13.1 11.0 12.8 96 6.6 63 6.4 1957: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 7.4 8.4 10.4 8.3 10.3 11.9 13.9 13.8 4.4 4.4 4.8 3.4 6.7 5.9 9.7 3.0 10.2 9.0 8.7 7.8 12.3 14.8 11.9 8.0 13.7 13.9 13.1 12.3 14.4 11.8 11.1 12.5 4.3 8.2 10.8 7.6 11.5 11.6 10.9 10.6 6.6 6.5 6.9 8.0 1958: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 6.9 8.6 9.9 11.8 13.3 14.5 .9 2.7 5.2 3.4 1.3 9.5 6.8 7.6 7.4 8.3 9.3 11.5 9.9 11.3 12.0 8.9 8.2 10.4 -.8 6.2 9.8 6.7 8.1 11.3 4.1 3.2 8.4 Profits after taxes per dollar of sales — cents 1956: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.2 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.1 2.8 2.2 2.6 2.8 1.4 1.0 2.1 1.9 6.4 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.4 5.0 3.7 3.0 8.5 8.1 7.6 7.9 10.6 12.0 11.4 12.3 3.8 4.7 5.3 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.1 4.7 2.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1957: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.1 4.7 4.9 5.5 5.4 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.8 .6 5.7 4.9 4.9 4.5 4.0 4.8 3-. 8 2.5 7.8 7.9 7.6 7.3 11.0 10.2 9.8 11.3 2.1 3.6 4.4 3.4 4.4 4.3 4.0 4.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.4 1958: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1.8 2.2 2.5 5.1 5.2 5.5 .4 1.3 2.4 .7 .3 1.7 4.1 4.5 4.3 2.8 3.3 4.0 6.4 6.7 7.0 8.2 8.2 9.9 -.5 2.9 3.9 3.0 3.4 4.5 1.3 1.0 2.4 NOTE.—Data on a comparable basis are not available for earlier periods. For explanatory notes concerning compilation of the series, see Quarterly Financial Reports for U. S. Manufacturing Corporations by Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission. Sources: Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission. 206 TABLE D-59.—Sources and uses of corporate Junds, 1947-58l [Billions of dollars] Source or use of funds Total uses Plant and equipment outlays Inventories (change in book value).. .-. Change in customer net receivables 3 Cash and U. S. Government securities Other assets ._ Total sources Internal sources Retained profits and depletion allowances Depreciation and amortization allowances External sources Change in Federal income tax liability Other liabilities Change in bank loans and mortgage loans Net new issues Discrepancy (uses less sources) 1 2 3 4 8 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 19582 28.2 27.0 16.8 36.5 36.8 27.3 28.2 24.0 45.1 39.9 39.3 33.5 17.0 18.8 16.3 16.9 21.6 22.4 23.9 22.4 24.2 29.9 32.7 26.5 7.1 4.2 -3.6 9.8 9.8 1.3 3.1 2.8 .9 5.0 2.0 3.1 1.0 1.0 .2 3.2 4.5 .3 2.8 .6 .1 1.8 -1.6 6.7 8.4 1.7 -4.5 6.4 5.0 4.4 6.5 5.0 —4.3 — 1.8 .9 2.3 2.8 2.5 2.5 27.9 27.8 15.8 35.4 36.9 28.1 30.0 22.4 44.8 41.5 41.2 33.5 16.6 18.8 14.9 20.8 19.0 17.8 19.7 19.8 26.6 27.9 28.5 27.5 7.4 (4) 11.4 12.6 5.2 6.2 11.3 9.0 (4) 7.8 (4) 7.9 (4) .8 8.8 56.0 9.0 10.4 11.8 13.5 15.7 17.7 19.7 21.5 2.6 18.2 13.6 12 7 6.0 7.8 13.0 10.0 7. 1 .4 2.4 1.8 .9 14.6 17.9 10.3 10.3 6.3 10.9 10.2 2.1 1.5 .9 —2.2 .4 .5 7.3 1.0 4.3 -3.1 1.9 2.4 .6 -3.1 .4 2.2 3.8 — 1.4 -1.9 -3.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 (4) 3.3 4.4 1.8 —2.3 5.9 4.9 2.6 3.7 5.4 6.3 .4 -.6 7.1 5.9 5.4 6.9 .3 -.8 1.0 3.1 7.9 1.1 — .1 -.8 -1.8 1.6 5.2 1.8 -1.0 7.8 10.9 10.0 .3 -1.6 -1.9 (4) Excludes banks and insurance companies. Preliminary estimates. Receivables are net of payables, which are therefore not shown separately. Less than $50 million. Preliminary estimate by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other financial data (except as noted). 2O7 TABLE D-60.—Current assets and liabilities of U. S. corporations, 1954-58l [Billions of dollars, end of period] 19 57 Asset or liability 1958 1954 1955 1956 194.6 224.5 235.9 235.2 234.9 239.5 239.9 232.8 231.0 236.0 33.4 34.6 35.1 32.3 33.0 33.7 35.0 32.6 34.5 35.5 19 2 23.0 18.2 17.7 15.4 15.7 16.5 15.4 13.3 14.3 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 71.2 65 3 3.1 87.1 72 8 4.7 94.5 80.4 5.1 94.9 5.5 96.1 82.4 5.4 98.7 83.2 5.7 97.5 82.2 5.9 94.6 81.4 6.2 96.0 78.3 6.3 99.9 77.3 6.3 99.7 121. 5 126.8 124.2 122.8 126.6 126.5 118.0 114.5 117.2 Advances and prepayments, U. S. Govern2.4 ment 2 ._ _ Other notes and accounts payable 59.3 Federal income tax liabilities 15.5 Other current liabilities. . 22.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 73.5 78.0 77.0 77.3 78.3 77.6 73.2 72.1 73.1 19.3 26.5 17.9 28.6 15.4 29.4 13.1 29.7 14.8 31.0 16.0 30.6 12.8 29.9 10.1 30.4 11.7 30.6 103.0 109.1 111.0 112. 1 112.9 113.5 114.8 116.6 118.8 Total current assets Cash on hand and in banks. U. S. G o v e r n m e n t securities Receivables from U. S. Government 2 Other notes and accounts receivable. Inventories Other current assets 3 Total current liabilities Net working capital 94.9 First Second Third Fourth First Second Third quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter 1 All corporations in the United States, excluding banks, savings and loan associations, and insurance companies. Data for 1954-55 are based on Statistics of Income, covering virtually all corporations in the United States. Statistics of Income data may not be strictly comparable from year to year because of changes in the tax laws, basis for filing returns, and processing of data for compilation purposes. Data for 1956-58 are estimates based on data compiled from many different sources, including data on corporations registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As more complete data become available, estimates are revised. 2 Receivables from and payables to U. S. Government do not include amounts offset against each other on the corporation's books or amounts arising from subcontracting which are not directly due from or to the U. S. Government. Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include U. S. Government advances offset against inventories on the corporation's books. 3 Includes marketable securities other than U. S. Government. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 208 TABLE D—61.—State and municipal and corporate securities offered, 1934-58l [Millions of dollars] Corporate securities offered for cash 2 State and Proposed uses of net proceeds 4 Gross proceeds 3 municipal securities New money offered for cash Retire- Other ComPreBonds (prin- Total mon ferred and Total purPlant Work- ment cipal of se- poses stock stock notes and ing amounts) Total equipcapi- curities tal ment Period 1934. . 939 397 19 6 372 384 57 32 26 231 95 1,232 1,121 908 1,108 1,128 2,332 4,572 2,310 2,155 2,164 22 272 ?85 25 87 86 271 406 86 98 2,224 4,028 1,618 2,044 1,980 2,266 4,431 2,239 2,110 2,115 208 858 991 681 325 111 380 574 504 170 96 478 417 177 155 1,865 3,368 1,100 1,206 1,695 193 204 148 222 95 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1,238 956 524 435 661 2,677 2,667 1,062 1,170 3, 202 108 183 167 112 124 369 2,386 2.390 917 990 2,670 2,615 2,623 1,043 1,147 3,142 569 868 474 3C8 657 424 661 287 141 252 145 ?07 187 167 405 1,854 1,583 396 739 2,389 192 172 173 100 96 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 _ 795 1,157 2,324 2,690 2,907 6,011 6,900 6,577 7,078 6,052 397 758 891 1,127 779 762 614 492 736 425 4, 855 4,882 5,036 5,973 4,890 5,902 6,757 6,466 6,959 5,959 1,080 3,279 4, 591 5,929 4,606 638 2,115 3,409 4,221 3,724 442 1,164 1,182 1,708 882 4,555 2,868 1,352 307 401 267 610 524 722 952 3,532 3,189 4.401 5,558 6,969 6,361 7,741 9,534 8,898 9,516 811 1,212 1,369 1,326 1,213 631 838 564 489 816 4,9?0 5,691 7,601 7,083 7,488 6,261 7,607 9,380 8,755 9,365 4,006 6,531 8,180 7,960 6,780 2,966 5. 110 6,312 5,647 5, 11C 1,041 1,421 1,868 2,313 1,670 1,271 486 664 260 1,875 984 589 537 535 709 1955 1956 1957 1958« 5, 977 5,446 6,958 7,400 10, 240 10, 939 12, 884 11,518 2,185 2,301 2,516 1,335 635 636 411 544 7,420 8,002 9,957 9,640 10, 049 10, 749 12, 661 11, 331 7.957 9,663 11, 784 9,926 5, 333 6,709 9,040 7,841 2,624 2,954 2,744 2,084 1,227 364 214 553 864 721 663 852 1956: First quarter.. Second quarter . Third quarter. . Fourth quarter. 1,517 1,617 928 1,384 2,250 2,989 2,690 3,010 352 532 457 960 191 146 99 199 1,706 2,311 2,134 1,851 2,209 2, 935 2,641 2,964 1,947 2,589 2,369 2,758 1,076 1,864 1,637 2,132 871 725 732 626 106 130 86 42 155 215 187 164 1957: First quarter... Second quarter . Third quarter.. Fourth quarter. 1,758 1,689 1,549 1,962 3, 558 3,258 2,997 3,071 753 765 404 593 98 139 72 102 2,706 2,354 2,521 2,376 3,493 3,194 2,950 3,023 3,180 2,948 2,809 2,847 2,591 2,238 1,955 2, 255 589 710 853 592 49 46 51 69 264 201 91 107 1958: First quarter... Second quarter. Third quarter. . Fourth quarter B_ 2,206 2,228 1,668 1,283 3,314 2,908 2,944 2,352 287 212 344 493 182 135 104 122 2,845 2,562 2,496 1,737 3,269 2,860 2,896 2,305 3,069 2,278 2,582 1,997 2,560 1,896 1,936 1,449 509 382 645 548 135 238 112 68 66 344 203 240 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 . - - no 34 56 163 1 These data cover substantially all new issues of State, municipal, and corporate securities offered for cash sale in the United States in amounts over $100,000 and with terms to maturity of more than 1 year. 2 Excludes notes issued exclusively to commercial banks, intercorporate transactions, and issues sold through continuous offerings, such as securities of open-end investment companies and employee-purchase plans. 34 Number of units multiplied by offering price. Net proceeds represents the amount received by the issuer after payment of compensation to distributors and other costs of flotation. 5 Preliminary. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission, The Commercial and Financial Chronicle, and The Bond Buyer. 209 TABLE D-62.—Common stock prices and earnings and stock market credit, 1939-58 Stock market credit Common stock prices index, 1939=100 (SEC) i Period Common stock price/ earnings ratioindustrials (Standard & Poor's) 2 Customer credit (excluding U. S. Government securities) Total Net debit balances 3 Bank loans to brokers and 5 Bank loans dealers to 4 "others" Millions of dollars 15.06 (6) (6) (6) 715 10.22 7.92 12.18 14.40 16.07 6 .- 94.2 85.7 74.9 99.2 108.1 (66) () (66) (6) (6) (•) (66) () 353 584 535 850 1,328 2,137 . 131.2 149.4 130.9 132.7 127.7 19.74 13.90 8.94 6.45 6.88 1,374 976 1,032 968 1,249 942 473 517 499 821 432 503 515 469 428 2,782 1,471 784 1,331 1,608 154.1 184.9 195.0 193.3 229.8 7.03 9.54 10.91 9.56 12.90 1,798 1,826 1,980 2, 445 3,436 1,237 1,253 1,332 1,665 2,388 561 573 648 780 1,048 1,742 1,419 2,002 2,248 2,688 1955 1956 1957 1958 304.6 345.0 331.4 340.9 12.83 14.19 12.24 («) 4,030 3,984 3,576 («) 2,791 2,823 2,482 («) 1,239 1,161 1,094 1,270 2,852 2,214 2,190 2,504 1957: January February .. March April May June -- - 338.2 325. 1 328.5 338.6 352.2 354. 6 13.10 3,902 3,846 3,832 3,938 3,924 4,031 2,761 2,729 2,713 2,792 2.794 2,887 1,141 1,117 1,119 1,146 1,130 1,144 1,689 1,760 1,670 1,842 1, 765 1,842 4,004 3,929 3,882 3,643 3,577 3,576 2,885 2,833 2,789 2,568 2,517 2,482 1,119 1,096 1,093 1,075 1,060 1,094 1,660 1,810 1,748 1,642 1,610 2,190 3,554 3,679 3,863 3,980 4,069 4,218 2,487 2,580 2,665 2,735 2, 856 2,921 1,067 1,099 1,198 1,245 1,213 1,297 1, 645 1,882 2,070 2,749 2, 204 3,170 4,252 4,199 4,308 4,369 4,423 («) 3, 021 3,013 3,109 3,188 3,245 O 1,231 1,186 1,199 1,181 1,178 1,270 2, 308 1, 665 1,671 1,641 1, 915 2,504 1939 100.0 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 . 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 -. July August September _ _ _ _ October November December 1958: January February March April May Tune July August September October November December -__ . --- 361.8 343.2 327.9 306.4 301.8 298.5 14.36 12.76 12.24 304.7 304.0 310.8 311 9 322.9 330.6 13.70 339. 2 351.7 360.5 376.4 387.8 392.8 18.20 15.92 («) 1 2 () () (•) («) (66) () Based on 265 stocks. Based on 50 stocks for 1939-56 and 425 stocks beginning 1957. Ratio is obtained by dividing aggregate market value at end of period by aggregate earnings for 12 months ending with period shown. 3 As reported by member firms of the New York Stock Exchange carrying margin accounts. Includes net debit balances of all customers (other than general partners in the reporting firm and member firms of national exchanges) whose combined accounts net to a debit. Balances secured by U. S. Government obligations are excluded. Data are for end of period. 4 Loans by weekly reporting member banks to others than brokers and dealers for purchasing or carrying securities except TJ. S. Government obligations. However, some U. S. Government securities are included after 1952. Series revised beginning July 1946 and March 1953. Data are for last Wednesday of period. 5 Loans by weekly reporting member banks for purchasing or carrying securities, including U. S. Government obligations. Series revised beginning July 1946 and January 1952. Data are for last Wednesday of period. 6 Not available. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Standard & Poor's Corporation, and New York Stock Exchange. 2IO TABLE D-63.—Business population and business failures, 1929-58 Operating businesses and business turnover (thousands of firms) i Period Business failures 3 < New business DisincorOper- New conBusiporatin- ness tions ating busi- ued busi- ness- busi- trans- (numfers s ber) 3 nesses 2 es s nessess 1929 3, 029. 0 1930 2, 993. 7 1931 2, 916. 4 1932 2, 828. 1 1933. 2, 782. 1 1934 2, 884. 0 1935 2,991.9 1936 3, 069. 8 1937 3, 136. 3 1938 3, 073. 7 1939 3, 222. 2 1940 . . _ 3. 318. 9 1941 3. 276. 0 194? . 3, 295. 3 1943.... ._ 3, 030. 0 1944 2, 839. 1 1945 2, 995. 4 1946 3, 242. 5 1947- . . 3, 651. 2 1948 3, 872. 9 1949 3, 984. 2 1950 _ 4, 008. 7 1951 4, 067. 3 1952 4, 121. 3 1953. 4, 178. 8 1954 . 4, 185. 3 1955 . 4, 189. 0 1956 4, 245. 2 1957 4, 289. 0 1958 4, 322. 7 1957: January 4, 289. 0 February... March April.. May June July 4. 323. 2 August . September. October November.. December__ 1958: January 4, 322. 7 February March April May.. _ June July August September.. October November December (6) (66) () (66) (6) () (66) ( 6) () (66) () 275.2 290.0 121.2 146.0 330.9 422.7 617.4 460.8 393.3 331.1 348.2 363.2 363.9 340.5 334.2 380.4 380.8 365.6 (6) (66) () (66) (6) () (6) (•) (66) (6) () 318.1 270.7 386.5 337.0 174.6 175.6 208.7 239.2 282.0 306.5 289.6 309.3 306.3 334.0 330.6 324.1 337.0 332.0 (6) (6) 6 (6 ) (6) (6 ) (•) (6) CO6 (6) (6) () () 6 (6) (•)6 (6) (6) (6) () (6) <•)6 () 6 6 (8) (6) 6 (6) 6 () 6 359.4 6 473.2 626.9 132, 916 571.9 112, 638 501.3 96, 101 434.7 85, 491 419.4 92, 925 378.3 83, 649 374.9 92, 819 356.2 102, 545 319.7 117, 164 327.0 139, 651 327.3 140, 775 341.0 136, 697 150, 268 () () (•) () () () () Amount of current liabilities (millions of dollars) Number of failures Business failure rate » Liability size class Total Liability size class Total Under $100,000 Under $100,000 and and $100,000 over $100,000 over 103.9 22, 909 22, 165 121.6 20, 355 25,408 133.4 28. 285 27, 230 154.1 31,822 30, 197 100.3 7 19, 859 718,880 61.1 12, 091 11, 421 61.7 12, 244 11. 691 47.8 9,607 9,285 45.9 9,490 9,203 61.1 12, 836 12,553 69.6 14, 768 14,541 63.0 713,619 7 13, 400 54.5 11,848 11, 685 44.6 9,405 9,282 16.4 3,221 3,155 6.5 1,222 1,176 4.2 809 759 5.2 1,129 1,002 3,474 14.3 3,103 20.4 5, 250 4,853 34.4 9,246 8,708 34.3 9,162 8,746 30.7 8,058 7,626 28.7 7,611 7,081 33.2 8,862 8,075 42.0 11,086 10, 226 41.6 10, 969 10, 113 48.0 12, 686 11,615 51.7 13, 739 12,547 55.9 14, 964 13, 499 744 483.3 261.5 947 668.3 303.5 1,055 736.3 354. 2 1,625 928.3 432.6 7979 7457.5 7 215. 5 670 334.0 138.5 553 310. 6 135. 5 322 203.2 102.8 287 183.3 101.9 283 246.5 140.1 227 182.5 132.9 7219 7 166. 7 7119.9 163 136.1 100.7 123 100.8 80.3 66 45.3 30.2 46 31.7 14.5 50 30.2 11.4 127 67.3 15.7 371 204.6 63.7 397 234.6 93.9 538 308.1 161.4 416 248.3 151.2 432 259.5 131.6 530 283.3 131.9 787 394.2 167.5 860 462.6 211.4 856 449.4 206.4 1,071 562.7 239.8 1,192 615.3 267.1 1,465 728.3 297. 6 221.8 364.8 382.2 495.7 7 242. C 195.4 175.1 100.4 81.4 106.4 49.7 746.8 35.4 20.5 15.1 17.1 18.8 51.6 140.9 140.7 146.7 97.1 128.0 151.4 226. 6 251.2 243.0 322.9 348.2 430.7 13,387 10, 791 211.0 176.9 193.2 12,049 12, 312 12, 220 11,269 11, 686 11, 361 10, 526 154.6 155.1 147.8 11,251 9,270 10, 575 48.0 51.1 64.9 48.2 50.1 50.0 47.8 63.4 58.7 51.5 56.0 61.9 1,148 1,146 1,336 1,175 1,200 1,084 1,059 1,145 1,071 1,122 1,173 1,080 1,022 1,042 1,225 1,071 1,069 988 974 1,070 984 1,032 1,075 995 126 104 111 104 131 96 85 75 87 90 98 85 54.1 65.4 55.8 57.1 52.6 51.5 44.3 43.5 45.4 47.4 52.9 45.3 21.0 23.1 25.2 23.1 21.5 20.7 19.7 23.4 20.9 22.3 23.6 22.6 33.0 42.3 30.6 34.0 31.0 30.8 24.6 20.2 24.5 25.1 29.3 22.7 13, 080 10, 466 11, 670 ' 11,329 11, 943 11, 991 12, 454 12, 234 12, 932 13, 633 12, 090 16, 446 53.2 64.1 60.0 59.7 55.3 67.3 58.2 64.0 53.4 57.4 55.9 51.3 1,279 1,238 1,495 1,458 1,341 1,260 1,253 1,127 1,039 1.271 1.121 1,082 1.142 1,113 1, 342 1,275 1,235 1,130 1,139 1,018 932 1,178 1,007 988 137 125 153 183 106 130 114 109 107 93 114 94 64.4 65.3 71.6 84.0 56.2 61.4 65.4 50.8 48.1 47.3 56.7 57.1 23.8 24.4 31.6 27.8 28.5 25.2 25.4 22.5 21.4 24.1 21.5 21.5 40.6 40.9 40.0 56.2 27.8 36.2 39.9 28.3 26.7 23.2 35.2 35.6 1 Excludes firms in the fields of agriculture and professional services. Includes self-employed person only if he has either an established place of business or at least one paid employee. 2 Annual data through 1939 are averages of end-of-quarter estimates centered at June 30. Beginning 1940, annual data are for January 1. 3 Total for period. 4 Commercial and industrial failures only. Excludes failures of banks and railroads and, beginning 1933. of real estate, insurance, holding, and financial companies, steamship lines, travel agencies, etc. s Failure rate per 10,000 listed enterprises. Monthly data are seasonally adjusted. 6 Not available. 7 Series revised; not strictly comparable with earlier data. NOTE.-—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Dun & Bradstrcet, Inc. 21 I AGRICULTURE TABLE D-64.—Income of the farm population, 1929-58 Income from agricultural sources Farm operators' income Net farm2 income Realszed gross farm income Wages of Farm Real- Total farm Cash reproceipts from (inized resimarketings Gov- duc(ex- clud- dent clud- ing workern- tion Total i exing net ment penses Livenet change ers paystock in change and Crops ments in in- inprodven- venucts tories) tories) s Period Income from all sources (including net change in inventories) Per capita income from all sources (dollars) (4) (44) ( 4) () (4) 1.9 (4) (44) ( 4) (4) () 5.3 (4) (44) (4) (4) () 165 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.4 7.9 7.3 9.3 7.4 7.7 8.0 10.6 14.9 17.4 17.8 18.2 21.4 22.4 24.9 19.9 21.0 23.7 23.4 21.1 20.2 19.8 20.1 19.7 21.4 244 228 296 239 249 262 349 509 654 696 720 806 825 962 767 838 983 962 931 925 894 903 967 1,027 Total Income (infrom clud- noning agrinet culchange tural in sources inven- tories) Billions of dollars 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937. 1938. 1939 1940. 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 13.9 -- . 1958* 6.2 11.4 5.2 8.4 3.8 6.4 2.8 7.1 2.8 8.5 3.3 9.7 4.1 10.7 4.7 11.3 4.9 10.1 4.5 10.6 4.5 11.0 4.9 13.8 6.5 18.8 9.0 23.4 11.5 24.4 11.4 25.8 12.0 29.7 13.8 34.4 16.5 34.9 17.1 31.8 15.4 32.5 16.1 37.3 19.6 37.0 18.3 35.3 16.9 33.9 16.3 33.3 15.9 34.6 16.3 34.3 17.4 37.6 18.8 5.1 3.9 2.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.6 3.9 3.2 3.3 3.5 4.6 6.5 8.1 9.2 9.7 11.0 13.1 13.1 12.4 12.4 13.3 14.4 14.2 13.7 13.7 14.2 12.4 14.1 0 0 0 0 0.1 .4 .6 .3 .3 .4 .8 .7 .5 .6 .6 .8 .7 .8 .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 .3 .2 .3 .2 .6 1.0 1.1 7.6 6.9 5.5 4.4 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.6 6.1 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.7 9.9 11.5 12.2 12.9 14.5 17.0 18.9 18.0 19.3 22.2 22.6 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.5 23.5 24.6 6.3 4.5 2.9 1.9 2.8 3.9 4.6 5.1 5.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 6.2 8.8 11.9 12.2 12.8 15.2 17.3 16.1 13.8 13.2 15.2 14.4 13.9 12.2 11.5 12.1 10.8 13.0 6.1 4.3 3.3 2.0 2.6 2.9 5.3 4.3 6.0 4.4 4.5 4.6 6.6 9.9 11.8 11.8 12.4 15.3 15.5 17.8 12.9 14.0 16.3 15.3 13.3 12.7 11.8 11.6 11.6 13.2 0.9 .8 .6 .5 .4 .5 .6 .6 .7 .7 .7 .7 .9 1.2 1.4 1.5 .6 .8 .9 .0 .8 .7 .8 .9 .8 .8 .7 .8 1.8 1.8 7.0 5.1 4.0 2.5 3.0 3.4 5.9 5.0 6.8 5.1 5.2 5.3 7.5 11.1 13.2 13.4 14.0 17.0 17.5 19.8 14.7 15.7 18.1 17.3 15.1 14.4 13.5 13.4 13.4 15.0 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1957: First quarter— Second quarterThird quarter. Fourth quarter. 34.4 34.3 34.3 34.3 (44) (4) ( 4) () (4) («) (44) () (44) (4) ( 4) () 23.4 23.6 23.4 23.6 11.0 10.7 10.9 10.7 11.5 11.6 11.8 11.5 8 8 (44) () (44) () (44) ( 4) () (4) (44) (4) () (4) 8( ) 1958: First quarter 5_ Second quarter' Third quarter '_ Fourth quarter' 37.0 38.0 37.7 37.8 (44) (4) (4) () (44) ( 4) () (4) (44) (4) ( 4) () 24.2 24.4 24.8 25.2 12.8 13.6 12.9 12.6 12.6 13.4 13.3 13.3 (44) ( 4) (4) () (44) ( 4) (4) () (44) (4) (4) () (44) (4) () (4) (4) (44) (4) () 4 (4) 1 Also includes nonmoney income furnished by farms (value of farm products consumed in farm households and gross rental value of farm dwellings), not shown separately. 2 Realized gross farm income less farm production expenses. 3 Data prior to 1946 differ from farm proprietors' income shown in Tables D-9 and D-12 because of revisions by the Department of Agriculture not yet incorporated into the national income accounts of the Department of Commerce. 4 Not available. 5 Preliminary. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Agriculture. 212 TABLE D-65.—Farm population, employment, and productivity, 1929-58 Farm population (April 1) i Period Farm employment Average (thousands) 4 Net migross gration hourly Manto and earn- hours from ings of of As per farms farm Num- cent hired of (thouber Family farm work Hired (thou- total sands) 3 Total workers workers workers 5 sands) population 2 Farm output per manhour Crop production Per manhour Per acre Index, 1947-49=100 1929 30,580 25.1 -477 12,763 9,360 3,403 $0. 241 135 55 53 79 1930 1931 1932 .. 1933 1934 30, 529 30, 845 31,388 32, 393 32, 305 24.8 24.8 25.1 25.8 25.5 -61 156 607 -463 -527 12, 497 12, 745 12, 816 12, 739 12, 627 9,307 9,642 9,922 9,874 9,765 3,190 3,103 2,894 2,865 2,862 .226 .172 .129 .115 .129 134 137 132 132 118 54 58 58 53 51 52 56 57 51 49 75 83 79 71 59 1935 1936 _ 1937 1938 1939 32, 161 31, 737 31, 266 30, 980 30, 840 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.8 23.5 -799 -834 -661 -545 -703 12, 733 12, 331 11,978 11, 622 11,338 9,855 9,350 9,054 8,815 8,611 2,878 2,981 2,924 2,807 2,727 .142 .152 .172 .166 .166 123 119 129 120 121 59 55 64 66 66 58 52 62 65 65 76 65 88 85 85 1940 . 1941 1942 1944 30, 547 30, 273 29, 234 26,681 25, 495 23.1 -633 22.7 -1,424 21.7 -2, 975 19.5 -1, 563 18.4 -564 10, 979 10, 669 10,504 10, 446 10, 219 8,300 8,017 7,949 8,010 7,988 2,679 2,652 2,555 2,436 2,231 .169 .206 .268 .353 .423 119 117 122 121 120 70 74 79 78 81 69 73 79 77 81 88 89 99 91 96 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 25, 295 26, 483 27, 124 25,903 25,954 864 18.1 151 18.7 18.8 -1,686 17.7 -371 17.4 -1,314 10,000 10, 295 10, 382 10, 363 9,964 7,881 8,106 8,115 8,026 7,712 2,119 2,189 2,267 2,337 2,252 .472 .515 .547 .580 .559 112 108 103 100 97 86 91 92 104 104 86 92 91 105 104 95 101 95 106 99 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 25, 058 24,160 24, 283 22, 679 21,890 16.5 -1,302 -271 15.7 15.5 -1,996 14.2 -1,171 13.5 -91 9,926 9,546 9,149 8,864 8,639 7,597 7,310 7,005 6,775 6,579 2,329 2,236 2,144 2,089 2,060 .561 .625 .661 .672 .661 89 91 89 88 85 112 113 120 123 127 115 112 123 124 129 97 98 103 103 101 1955 1956 1957 1958 6 22, 158 22, 257 20, 396 20, 827 13.4 -256 13.2 -2, 236 11.9 93 12.0 (7) 8,364 7,820 7,577 7,525 6,347 5,899 5,682 5,570 2,017 1,921 1,895 1,955 .675 .705 .728 .757 85 83 79 80 132 136 143 154 135 141 154 169 106 109 112 126 1943.-- 1 Farm population as denned by Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce, i. e., civilian population living on farms, both urban and rural, regardless of occupation. 2 Total population as of July 1 including armed forces overseas. 3 Net change for year beginning in April, estimated by Department of Agriculture. For 1940 and subsequent years, includes inductions and enlistments into the armed forces, and persons returning from the armed forces. For all years, includes persons who have not moved but who are in and out of the farm population because agricultural operations have begun or have ceased on the place where they are living. 4 Includes persons doing farm work on all farms. These data, published by the Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service, differ from those on agricultural employment by the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (see Table D-17) because of differences in the method of approach, in concepts of employment, and in time of month for which the data are collected. For further explanation, see3 monthly reports on Farm Labor by the Department of Agriculture. Weighted average of all farm wage rates on a per-hour basis. 6 Preliminary. 7 Not available. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 213 489916 O— 59 15 TABLE D-66.—Farm production indexes, 1929-58 [1947-49=100] Livestock and products Period Crops Farm outtr Dairy PoulFeed put i Total 2 Meat ani- prod- and Total 3 grains mals ucts eggs ?; Hay Oil To- bearand Food Vege- Fruits and Cotfor- grains tables nuts ton bacing co crops age 1929 74 77 77 82 63 79 83 88 66 81 76 104 75 21 1930 1931 1932...1933 1934 72 79 76 70 60 78 80 81 82 75 78 82 83 86 73 84 86 86 87 85 65 63 63 62 59 76 84 80 71 58 73 84 95 73 48 75 79 86 79 67 72 76 62 45 44 82 83 83 80 87 75 94 76 77 72 98 119 91 91 68 81 76 49 68 54 23 23 21 18 21 1935 1936.... 1937 1938 1939.... 72 65 82 79 80 72 77 76 79 85 66 74 71 77 87 86 87 86 89 90 59 63 63 65 69 76 64 88 83 82 80 53 87 84 83 96 74 87 98 93 53 52 72 75 61 88 83 89 89 88 91 72 95 85 98 75 87 133 84 83 65 58 78 69 94 34 27 30 36 47 1940 1941 1942 1943-.-1944 83 86 96 94 97 87 92 102 111 105 89 94 107 120 108 92 96 100 99 101 70 77 89 102 102 85 86 97 90 96 85 91 104 96 100 106 106 115 110 109 67 76 80 69 85 91 92 96 103 99 95 102 100 87 102 88 75 90 80 86 72 62 70 70 96 56 61 92 98 82 1945 1946--.. 1947 1948 1949..... 96 98 95 104 101 104 101 100 97 103 103 101 100 97 103 103 102 101 98 101 106 99 98 96 106 93 98 93 106 101 97 105 81 116 103 113 104 103 100 97 89 92 108 103 89 101 110 98 103 99 93 110 104 96 100 63 61 83 104 113 98 114 105 98 97 88 85 91 109 100 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 100 103 107 108 108 107 112 112 114 117 109 117 117 116 121 101 100 100 105 107 111 116 117 120 125 97 99 103 103 101 104 97 102 101 106 106 111 107 110 109 83 82 105 96 85 98 92 92 96 94 104 106 102 104 104 70 106 106 115 96 101 115 112 103 110 116 106 104 102 116 1955 1956 1957 4 1958 _- 112 113 113 123 120 122 121 124 127 123 120 123 108 110 111 111 123 136 137 144 105 106 106 118 112 112 122 134 116 110 126 125 80 84 79 117 96 101 97 101 104 110 108 110 103 93 77 81 109 107 83 87 128 152 148 181 1 Farm output measures the annual volume of farm production available for eventual human use through sales from farms or consumption in farm households. Total excludes production of feed for horses and mules. 2 Includes certain items not shown separately. 3 Includes production of feed for horses and mules and certain other items not shown separately. < Preliminary. Source: Department of Agriculture. 214 TABLE D-67.—Indexes of prices received and prices paid by farmers, and parity ratio, 1Q29—58 [1910-14=100] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers bo £ .s fl "S I | 1 "o 0 0 1 Poultry and eggs C8 SH Dairy products 3 | a Ibo Meat animals All farm prod-1 ucts Livestock and products All livestock and products l Period All crops ' Crops All terns, interest, taxes, Famand livry wage ing rates terns (parity index) Parity Pro- raduc- tio 2 tion terns 1929 148 135 116 118 150 171 143 159 155 166 161 160 154 146 92 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 125 87 65 70 90 115 75 57 71 98 93 56 44 66 90 106 104 140 74 64 98 48 49 84 57 68 107 95 101 156 111 73 44 57 103 134 98 72 70 81 133 91 63 59 68 142 111 86 87 101 128 98 81 74 89 151 130 112 109 120 144 124 106 108 122 135 113 99 99 114 83 109 114 122 97 95 103 108 118 80 82 97 108 120 75 72 107 103 125 71 72 98 99 94 70 74 171 163 200 173 152 127 120 129 95 96 114 119 126 112 107 115 118 130 113 110 114 125 131 115 110 116 115 111 110 96 124 124 131 124 123 124 124 128 122 120 122 122 132 122 121 88 92 93 78 77 100 124 159 3193 3197 3207 3236 276 287 250 258 302 288 258 249 236 235 242 255 90 108 145 187 199 202 228 263 255 224 233 265 268 242 242 236 240 233 232 84 97 120 148 166 172 201 271 250 218 224 243 244 231 232 229 224 225 206 85 92 115 152 172 167 202 256 258 177 193 226 234 208 206 187 185 170 156 83 111 156 167 172 179 238 274 272 246 282 336 310 268 274 272 268 264 253 134 157 247 319 348 360 376 374 380 398 402 436 432 429 439 437 453 465 481 103 138 183 202 222 228 260 363 351 242 276 339 296 274 279 250 250 252 228 109 108 120 138 143 140 186 171 163 198 203 3 198 196 190 3222 211 3207 3229 242 3248 3268 288 329 273 315 361 301 272 311 252 280 340 249 409 336 286 306 353 302 272 296 274 255 292 252 236 249 253 230 238 260 249 279 264 275 334 259 98 122 152 191 177 198 201 223 242 221 186 228 206 221 176 188 177 162 169 124 133 152 171 182 190 208 240 260 251 256 282 287 279 281 281 285 295 305 121 130 149 166 175 182 202 237 251 243 246 268 271 270 274 273 278 286 292 123 130 148 164 173 176 191 224 250 238 246 273 274 253 252 249 249 258 270 81 93 105 113 108 109 113 115 110 100 101 107 100 92 89 84 82 82 84 237 235 238 241 May.. 242 June 243 246 July August 247 September . 245 241 October November . 242 243 December- - 237 234 237 241 241 240 237 232 227 225 223 219 237 235 235 233 225 218 218 217 217 219 221 221 187 181 181 180 179 173 170 169 163 156 150 151 256 255 252 258 266 270 273 278 279 273 263 239 457 458 459 459 457 457 460 469 484 483 473 466 266 260 265 264 263 260 250 252 244 231 235 237 238 236 238 242 242 245 254 261 260 255 258 263 253 252 263 275 280 288 297 302i 291 275 2771 293 271 266 260 253 248 246 253 260 272 278 28C 1 275 j 155 156 149 148 143 145 155 168 175 181 188 185 292 293 294 296 296 296 1 295 295 295 296 298 299 283 284 284 28 286 28 28 28 286 1 289 289 255 256 258 259 259 25" 25 25 258 258 26C 26 81 80 81 81 82 82 83 84 83 81 81 81 224 229 245 252 246 232 228 225 232 227 225 1 22C | 217 219 224 223 221 197 19f 19C 195 19£ 20f 19* 146 148 152 162 163 167 165 163 161 153 145 154 232 211 220 236 246 246 26C 281 292 281 274 256 474 475 475 475 475 474 473 483 482 501 485 505 233 22S 1 234 237 238 23S 227 232 22C 214 1 2U >! 2U >| 267 273 280 275 28C 275 277 275 28C 275 274 27C 308 324 336 339 355 348 347 338 1 33S 33C 326 323 174 26? 1 165 266 261 187 24£ 172 244 168 241 163 246 166 166 255 264 ! 174 164 271 1 2725 164 27() 157 289 290 293 293 294 293 293 291 290 291 293 291 26 26 26 27 27 27C 27C 26? 272 271 272 273 82 83 87 86 86 84 83 83 85 82 81 80 _ 1935 1936 1937 1938. 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944. 1945 1946 1947 _ 1948 ._. 1949 1950 1951 . 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 . 1958. _. 1957: January February ... March April 1958: January February. .March April May June July August September . October November _ December.. 28 67 58 64 75 ! 247 252 263 264 264 255 ! 254 251 258 252 251 246 1 2 3 301 302 304 ! 306 1 306 ! 305 305 304 305 307 308 308 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers for all farm products to parity index. Includes wartime subsidy payments. Source: Department of Agriculture. 215 TABLE D-68.—Comparative balance sheet of agriculture, 1940—59 [Billions of dollars] Assets Claims Other physical assets Beginning of period Financial assets HouseMahold chinReal furTotal estate ery Live- and nishstock motor Crops ! ings and vehiequip-2 cles ment Real Other DeposInvestits U.S. ment Total estate debt debt and savings in cocur- bonds operarency tives Proprietors' equities 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 53.0 55.1 62.5 73.3 83.8 33.6 34.4 37.5 41.6 48.2 5.1 5.3 7.1 9.6 9.7 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.9 5.3 2.7 3.0 3.8 5.1 6.1 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.6 3.2 3.5 4.2 5.4 6.6 0.2 .4 .5 1.1 2.2 0.8 .9 .9 1.0 1.1 53.0 55.1 62.5 73.3 83.8 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.0 5.4 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.5 43.0 44.7 52.0 63.3 74.9 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 93.1 102.0 113.9 125.2 132.1 53.9 61.0 68.5 73.7 76.6 9.0 9.7 11.9 13.3 14.4 6.3 5.2 5.1 7.0 9.4 6.7 6.3 7.1 9.0 8.6 4.7 4.8 5.4 6.2 7.0 7.9 9.4 10.2 9.9 9.6 3.4 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 93.1 102.0 113.9 125.2 132.1 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 3.4 3.2 3.6 4.2 6.1 84.8 94.0 105.4 115.9 120.7 1950 1951 1952 1953.... 1954 130.8 149.6 165.6 162.9 159.7 75.3 86.8 96.0 96.6 94.7 12.9 17.1 19.5 1^.8 11.7 11.3 13.0 15.2 15.6 16.3 7.6 7.9 8.8 9.0 9.2 7.8 8.7 9.5 10.2 10.8 9.1 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 130.8 149.6 165.6 162.9 159.7 5.6 6.1 6.7 7.3 7.8 6.9 7.0 7.9 8.8 9.3 118.3 136.5 151.0 146.8 142.6 .._ 164.7 168.3 176.4 186 7 200.0 98.8 102.7 109.5 116.3 123.2 11.2 10.7 11.1 14.2 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.6 9.6 8.3 8.3 7.6 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.8 9.4 9.5 9.3 9.4 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 164.7 168.3 176.4 186.7 200.0 8.3 9.1 9.9 10.5 11.2 9.5 9.8 9.6 9.7 11.4 146.9 149.4 156.9 166.5 177.4 1955 1956 1957 1958 3 1959 1 Includes all crops held on farms for whatever purpose and crops held off farms as security for Commodity Credit Corporation loans. The latter on January 1, 1958, totaled $700 million. 2 Estimated valuation for 1940, plus purchases minus depreciation since then. 3 Preliminary. 4 Not available. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Agriculture. TABLE D-69.—Level-oj-living indicators Jos farm-operator families, selected years, 1920—56 Level-of-living indexes l (U. S. average in 1945=100) Period 1920 1930 1940 1945 1950 1954 1956 Percentage of all families reporting: ./ RunUnited North- North South West Electric- Tele- Auto- ning States east Central ity 2 phones mobiles water 3 4 75 79 100 122 140 145 102 115 138 152 167 169 104 104 128 147 161 165 44 49 65 92 113 119 93 102 127 145 163 167 7 13 33 48 78 93 94 39 34 25 32 38 47 52 31 58 58 62 63 71 74 10 16 22 29 43 59 64 Mechan- Tele- Home ical refrig- vision freezers erators 15 32 63 90 3 36 53 12 32 39 1 Indexes based on percent of farms with electricity, telephones, and automobiles and the average value of products sold or traded in the year preceding the appropriate Census of Agriculture. 23 Differs in minor respects from series shown in Table D-70. Gas or electric lights. 4 Based on Special Cooperative Survey of Farmers' Expenditures. Source: Department of Agriculture. 2l6 TABLE D—70.—Selected indicators of farming conditions, 1929-58 Period Total investin farm Average ment plant and Number value of equipment of farms production (millions of (thou- assets per dollars) sands) farm (dollars) 1 Gross Net 2 Real estate Foredebt as closure percent of rate per value of 1,000 real estate3 farms « (percent) Percent of farms Operators' Farm in- allwith net income come per central per farm worker station (dollars) « (dollars) « electrical service 7 6,512 (8) 966 50 20.3 15.7 962 593 (8) 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 6,546 6,608 6,687 6,741 6,776 (88) (8) 717 408 194 189 376 -238 -448 -540 -455 -274 20.1 21.5 24.5 27.5 23.9 18.7 28.4 38.8 28.0 21.0 691 437 288 410 571 456 298 203 266 360 (88) (8) (8) () (8) 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 6,814 6,739 6,636 6,527 6,441 (8s) () (8) 560 756 903 685 774 -104 28 107 -148 -7 22.8 21.7 20.3 19.8 19.9 20.3 18.1 14.3 13.4 12.5 676 762 788 655 682 423 487 519 452 475 10.9 12.3 15.8 19.1 22.1 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 6,350 6,293 6,202 6,089 6,003 6,094 6,340 7,449 8,934 10, 328 872 1,199 1,202 918 1,488 76 325 -168 -485 25 19.6 18.9 17.0 14.3 11.2 10.4 6.1 4.3 3.0 1.9 675 978 1, 423 1,950 2, 035 484 694 995 1,331 1,411 30.4 34.9 38.3 40.3 42.2 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 5,967 5.926 5,871 5,803 5,722 11,346 12, 435 14, 154 15,906 17, 144 1,533 2,035 3,245 4,316 4,492 193 811 1,641 2,257 2,064 9.2 7.8 7.2 6.9 6.9 1.5 1.1 .0 .2 .4 2,154 2,569 2,947 2,767 2,410 1,515 1,726 1,937 1,842 1.671 45.7 54.3 61.0 68.6 78.2 1950 1951 L 1952 1953... -. 1954 5.648 5,535 5,421 5,308 5,201 16, 979 20,434 23, 206 22, 946 22, 592 4,594 4,825 4,696 4,785 4,230 1,858 1,599 1,297 1,265 614 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.5 8.2 .5 .6 .3 .7 2.0 2,334 2,739 2,659 2,619 2,346 1,598 1,881 1,882 1,883 1,727 77.2 84.2 88.1 90.8 92.3 1955 1956 1957 9 1958 5,087 4,969 4,856 4,754 23, 806 25, 096 27, 203 29,600 4,229 3,857 4,064 4,307 507 116 149 301 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.0 2.3 2.0 1.7 2,255 2,437 2,232 2,735 1,698 1,906 1,762 2,126 93.4 94.2 94.8 95.4 1929 () 8 8 («) 1 Farm real estate less value of dwellings, crops held for feed, livestock, machinery and equipment less 60 percent of the value of automobiles, and demand deposits used for production. Data are for January 1. 23 Gross investment less depreciation and other capital consumption. Data are for January 1. * Data are for year beginning March 15. s Including Government payments and excluding the net change in inventories. e Net income of farm operators including Government payments and excluding the net change in inventories, plus farm wages of resident workers and other hired workers. 7 Data are for June 30, except for the Census of Agriculture years: 1935 (January 1), 1940 (April 1), 1945 (January 1), and 1950 (April 1). 8 Not available. 9 Preliminary. Source: Department of Agriculture. 217 INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS TABLE D-71.—United States balance of payments, J952-58l [Millions of dollars] July 1952Junc 1956 (annual average) Type of transaction United States payments' Total Imports of goods and services: Total Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Transportation Travel - Miscellaneous services, excluding military Military expenditures Income on investments: Private Government Unilateral transfers, military Total net, excluding _- Government grants Remittances and other transfers United States capital, net: Total Private net' Total Direct investments, net New issues Redemptions _ _ _ __ Other long-term, net Short-term net Government net' Total Long-term capital, outflow Repayments Short-term, net _ - United States receipts: Total Exports of goods and services: Total First half Second half First Third half quarter 20 930 12 522 13 226 14 194 12 994 13 379 6 58 r> 17, 157 9,898 9,912 10, 316 10, 391 10, 061 5, 258 11 104 1,149 1,029 6 426 707 535 6 365 725 740 6 640 711 565 6 651 717 807 6 313 728 621 3 116 408 586 686 2 657 358 1 572 426 1 338 363 1 725 480 1 395 382 1 733 248 757 385 87 232 68 232 86 213 99 239 102 219 65 111 32 2,397 1 183 1,149 1,226 1,081 1 143 548 1,795 602 875 308 820 329 883 343 730 351 805 338 367 181 1,376 1 441 2,165 2,652 1 522 2 175 779 1 159 1 100 1 880 2 203 1 008 1 714 441 776 255 -143 58 213 630 205 —94 206 153 1,209 252 -75 113 381 1,395 399 -70 216 263 677 198 — 79 167 45 578 721 —40 207 248 164 46 — 10 148 93 217 341 285 449 514 401 338 522 —474 169 294 240 729 — 185 —294 339 258 —360 551 —299 84 494 —338 305 334 — 110 114 18,980 11, 581 12, 479 13, 935 12 902 11 508 5 533 18 685 11 299 12 219 13 642 12 834 11 494 5 533 8 366 8 955 10 239 989 364 607 84 9 088 8 239 '792 364 605 159 3 795 416 256 322 49 1 000 'l45 1 160 1 085 175 99 1 228 188 106 1 027 195 113 541 99 55 68 14 232 769 316 514 91 98 295 282 —941 Increase in liquid dollar holdings by foreign countries and international institutions 1 242 899 United States gold sales or purchases (— ) 416 Errors and omissions 292 1 2 -115 157 850 389 545 65 159 96 260 -747 293 —259 403 -191 308 -673 535 Excludes transfers of goods and services under military grant programs. Excludes investment in U. S. Government securities. Source: Department of Commerce. 1958 Second half — 1 950 Net United States payments ( — ) 19 57 First half Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military _ - _ . . _ _ - _ - _ 13, 437 Transportation 1 303 606 Travel Miscellaneous services 966 Military transactions 167 Income on investments: Direct investments 1 705 Other private 238 263 Government Foreign long-term investments in the United States, net 2 19 56 2l8 624 858 421 661 284 —92 —1 871 -35 -125 252 — 1 052 183 394 1 445 483 243 175 TABLE D-72.—United States balance of payments with individual areas, 1952-58l [Millions of dollars] July 1952June 1956 (annual average) Area and type of transaction 19f >6 19,57 19v58 First half Second half First half Second half First half 6 630 4 005 4 120 4 399 3 896 4 052 2 160 2 290 1 429 1 430 '976 1 518 700 1 539 1 049 1 552 747 1 512 1 004 803 396 487 258 308 289 167 267 154 175 168 233 246 317 159 207 170 211 325 213 1,587 264 911 933 148 343 1 002 152 181 937 146 372 1 063 166 316 971 150 233 301 261 174 302 89 179 84 149 175 567 356 52 182 146 84 -28 93 110 52 13 346 63 158 157 90 109 97 —34 — 11 83 110 — 11 34 45 67 5 376 3 459 3 974 4 516 3 875 3 348 1 561 3 687 2 481 2 864 3 282 2 656 2 349 1 078 203 244 61 159 64 186 57 171 67 216 62 215 32 94 1 033 598 647 754 878 209 170 213 252 58 718 4 356 1 Net United States receipts or payments ( — ) - —1 254 —536 —146 117 —21 — 704 —599 3, 693 2,189 2,554 2,438 2,356 2,273 1 255 2 522 206 524 12 2 431 1 392 121 220 6 —5 455 1 521 138 377 6 1 519 'l52 386 7 1 291 1 279 186 227 6 _1 576 704 90 265 4 512 1 421 'l36 228 7 1 645 382 25 24 269 191 —5 275 204 33 416 273 -44 168 91 32 145 339 92 114 71 7 Western Europe: United States payments: Total Imports of nonmilitary goods Military expenditures _ France Germany _ United Kingdom Other services Remittances and other transfers, net. Government grants and capital, net.. Greece, Spain, Turkey, Yugoslavia - - . and Private capital, net outflow Direct investments Other long-term Short-term -- United States receipts- Total Exports of nonmilitary goods Income on investments abroad: Government -_ Private Other services and military transactions Foreign long-term investments in the United States net 3 Canada: United States payments: Total Imports of nonmilitary goods Military expenditures. Other services Remittances and other transfers, net. Government capital net Private capital, net outflow Direct investments Other long-term _ .._ _ ._ Short-term United States receipts: Total Exports of nonmilitary goods Income on investments: Government _ -_ Private Other services and military transactions. .. .-_ -. Foreign long-term investments in the United States, net 3 Net United States receipts or payments (— ) (%} (2) 75 636 92 87 192 4,268 2,683 2,685 2,755 2,515 2,310 1,183 3,218 2 068 2,046 2, 142 1,872 1.763 850 384 212 275 256 284 229 133 619 315 359 347 368 325 207 47 88 5 10 -9 -7 -7 575 494 131 317 159 37 -72 See footnotes at end of table, p. 221. Third quarter 219 TABLE D-72.—United States balance of payments with individual areas., 1952-58 l—Continued [Millions of dollars] July 1952June 1956 annual average) Area and type of transaction 19,56 19^>7 19,58 First half Second half First half Second half First half 4 844 2 801 3 030 3 434 3 240 2 966 1 422 3, 572 1,982 37 179 253 20 91 233 1,793 14 523 20 87 593 2,007 18 473 27 94 815 1,922 17 513 24 163 601 1,917 26 470 22 163 368 850 13 271 10 246 32 141 471 704 400 301 —4 71 29 17 75 223 38 84 267 34 77 90 111 90 -14 81 19 17 4 722 2 698 2 917 3 229 3 365 2 947 1 451 3,272 1,864 1,966 2,238 2,390 2,098 989 29 662 17 416 17 468 20 502 20 473 22 395 10 216 739 392 442 455 477 434 242 20 9 24 14 5 —2 -6 -122 —103 -113 —205 125 -19 29 5,598 3,461 3,428 3,710 3,340 3,705 1,668 2,780 1,622 1,533 295 1,673 273 1,658 328 1,605 302 759 177 Military expenditures.. Japan 997 613 462 246 486 238 522 224 479 221 517 205 Other services. ... . . _ . . . . Remittances and other transfers, net.. Government grants and capital, net, . 289 849 406 276 134 748 269 151 751 294 163 821 324 154 720 325 160 845 170 75 364 435 40 65 64 376 60 49 81 349 66 69 75 475 —5 71 59 304 53 115 47 401 — 15 113 79 143 4 48 34 277 219 238 237 5 253 42 156 55 66 110 39 70 117 15 106 118 —1 120 12 58 -65 49 118 86 20 20 2 4,526 2,684 2,854 3,381 3,097 2,851 1,311 3,240 1,938 2,069 2,564 2,157 2,016 872 663 378 521 721 510 443 184 31 640 20 351 15 382 22 322 19 436 29 371 13 189 605 363 379 463 476 421 227 10 12 9 10 9 14 10 -1,072 -777 -574 -329 -243 Latin America: United States payments' Total Imports of nonmilitary goods _ Military expenditures Other services Remittances and other transfers, net-Government grants and capital, net— Private capital outflow, net Direct investments Oil concession payments to Venezuela -_ Other long-term Short-term United States receipts' Total Exports of nonmilitary goods -.. Income on investments: Government - Private Other services and military transactions - -- . Foreign long-term investments in the United States, net 3 Net United States payments ( — ) receipts or Other countries'. United States payments: Total Imports of nonmilitary goods Japan Private capital, net outflow . . . . Direct investments Other long-term Short-term United States receipts: Total Exports of nonmilitary goods Japan Income on investments: Government Private _ . _ - - . . Other services and military transactions Foreign long-term investments in the United States, net 3 receipts _ 153 341 Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Korea, and China (Taiwan) Japan India Pakistan . Net United States pavments ( — ) 25 778 or See footnotes at end of table, p. 221. 220 13 462 263 -854 Third quarter 258 (2) -357 TABIE D-72.—United States balance of payments with individual areas, 1952-58 1—Continued [Millions of dollars] July 1952June 1956 (annual average) Area and type of transaction International Institutions: United States payments: Total Government grants and capital, net.. Private capital, net outflow Other payments United States receipts: Total Exports of nonmilitary goods Income on investments: Government _._ .__ Private Other services - Foreign long-term investments in the United States, net 3 Net U n i t e d S t a t e s receipts or payments (— ) .____. _. Addendum: Total sterling area: United States payments: Total . Imports of nonmilitary goods Militarv expenditures _ . .. . Other services Remittances and other transfers, net. Government grants and capital, net . United Kingdom Private capital, net outflow Direct investments United Kingdom O ther long-term Short-term . ._ _ , _ ._ United States receipts: Total . Exports of nonmilitarv goods Income on investments: Government.. . ... ... Private Other services and military transactions Foreign long-term investments in the United States, net 3 Net U n i t e d States payments (— ) .. r e c e i p t s or ... ... _ _ 19 56 First half Second half First half Second half First half Third quarter 164 66 94 213 162 383 80 74 48 42 39 18 9 86 -30 38 44 150 19 44 59 59 26 335 22 8 29 43 89 47 49 54 50 52 27 20 15 10 13 13 13 6 14 46 7 22 g 22 9 25 7 25 12 22 g 11 9 3 9 7 5 5 2 -75 -19 —45 — 159 — 112 -331 -53 3,431 2,121 2,196 2.412 2,326 2,292 1,100 1,719 399 767 95 332 1,006 329 451 49 177 994 239 456 48 116 1 094 1 068 1,050 326 482 56 237 488 123 269 27 109 143 11 119 109 86 22 8 25 93 48 44 -28 3,019 1 856 406 453 264 496 56 169 57 430 —54 —1 245 10 —1 343 234 11 141 84 240 213 82 21 126 89 40 68 76 68 -16 -49 88 40 38 15 26 -3 29 29 1,749 1,961 2,176 2,054 1,815 851 1,108 1 240 1 445 1 341 1,148 525 104 381 13 228 13 280 14 225 17 302 24 277 4 127 584 310 338 380 383 355 197 94 90 90 112 11 11 —2 -477 -249 -412 1 -372 -235 -236 Excludes transfers of goods and services under military grant programs. 2 Not available. 3 Excludes investment in U. S. Government securities. Source: Department of Commerce. 19 58 19 57 221 -272 TABLE D—73.—United States exports by selected commodities and markets, 1956-58 [Millions of dollars, annual rates] Total, all countries Commodity and period Main countries accounting for decline from first half 1957 to first half 1958 Total Total exports, excluding "special category": 2 1956: First half 1957- First half 1958: First half Western Europe ] Canada All other countries Japan 16,294 19,984 16,064 9,383 11, 666 8,592 4,589 6,040 4,278 4,036 4,184 3,428 758 1,442 886 6,911 8,318 7,472 5,029 7,386 4,394 3,229 4,971 2,648 1,612 2,838 1,468 1,191 1,185 807 426 948 373 1,800 2,415 1,746 214 796 179 108 609 106 29 481 37 61 73 37 18 55 32 106 187 73 484 1,278 856 396 1,070 678 198 750 470 12 52 46 186 268 162 88 208 178 669 910 575 327 420 236 281 347 149 46 73 87 342 490 339 630 854 526 594 798 498 376 556 354 190 194 108 28 48 36 36 56 28 Iron and steel-mill products, scrap, nonferrous metals and ferroalloys: 1956: First half 1957- First half 1958: First half 1,526 2,088 1,058 1,128 1,528 694 576 608 378 408 428 264 144 492 52 398 560 364 Automobiles, parts, and accessories: 1956: First half 1957: First half 1958: First half _. 1,506 1,460 1,200 676 546 436 152 96 80 520 438 352 4 12 4 830 914 764 11, 265 12, 598 11, 670 6,154 6,695 5,944 2,977 3,202 2,810 2,845 2,999 2,621 332 494 513 5,111 5,903 5,726 Machinery, all types: 1956: First half 1957- First half 1958: First half 3,612 4,050 3,832 1,892 2,072 1,808 608 664 602 1,210 1,278 1,018 74 130 188 1,720 1,978 2,024 Chemicals and 1956: First 1957: First 1958- First 1,244 1,408 1,348 620 710 688 292 354 366 252 254 246 76 102 76 624 698 660 632 698 630 254 294 248 106 134 98 148 156 150 5,777 6,442 5,860 3,388 3,619 3,200 1,971 2,050 1,744 1,235 1,311 1,207 Six main groups in the decline: 1956: First half 1957: First half 1958: First half Crude petroleum and related fuels: 1956: First half _._ 1957- First half 1958: First half Cotton, raw, including linters: 1956: First half .. ._ 1957- First half 1958: First half Wheat: 1956: First half 1957- First half 1958: First half . Coal and 1956: 19571958: related fuels: First half First half First half Other exports: 1956: First half 1957- First half 1958: First half _ _ _ .... related products: «_ half _- _ . . half half Textile manufactures: 4 1956: First half _ 1957: First half. _ _ 1958' First half All other exports: 1956- First half 1957: First half.. 1958: First half (33) () (3) 4 378 404 382 182 258 249 2,389 2,823 2,660 (3) i Excludes Greece and Turkey. 2 "Special category" includes those commodities for which detailed statistics are withheld for security reasons. The data for the first half of 1956 include estimates for commodities declassified in a revision of "special category" coverage in 1957. 3 Less than $500,000. 4 Includes semimanufactures as well as finished products except those for Japan which include finished manufactures only. Source: Department of Commerce. 222 TABLE D-74—World exports, 1956-58 [Millions of dollars, annual rates] ^\^^ Exports to Exports from ^\^ World: 1956: First half Change, first half: 1956-1957 1957-1958. United States: 1956- First half Change, first half: 1956-1957 1957-1958 United Kingdom, Iceland, and Ireland: 1956: First half Change, first half: 1956-1957 1957-1958 Continental Western Europe: 1956: First half Change, first half: 1956-1957 1957-1958 Canada: 1956- First half Change, first half: 1956-1957 1957-1958 Japan: 1956- First half Change, first half: 1956-1957 1957-1958 Outer sterling area: 1956- First half Change, first half: 1956-1957 1957-1958 Latin America: 1956: First half Change, first half: 1956-1957 1957-1958 All other countries: 1956: First half. Change, first half: 1956-1957 1957-1958 United Kingdom, United World i States Iceland, and Ireland ContiOuter nental Western Canada Japan sterling area Europe i 2 91, 349 12, 378 10, 047 27, 755 2 10, 113 118 -261 395 -507 4,007 -2, 583 2-6,363 2 2 3 842 16, 728 2 3 3 479 3338 3 1 116 3 —393 3—1 321 3, 742 —3,844 Latin America All other countries 2,472 11, 584 7, 161 13 159 1 207 -780 -1,101 1 120 -321 1 314 -371 1 442 —387 1 242 3 754 3 2 113 784 — 260 3 341 3 —427 5,392 208 3 4 167 144 —769 3 755 3 3680 3322 —555 3 —169 9,690 694 571 2,388 523 61 3 856 397 1 146 566 -462 62 39 21 51 315 -352 18 1 50 111 — 55 -125 47 — 10 -82 —1 25, 906 1,876 2,351 12,690 241 128 1.800 1,465 5,058 3,569 -484 190 -29 -23 13 2,013 -557 29 -11 129 —77 220 76 288 66 676 114 4,633 2,781 756 411 112 259 163 150 239 23 146 -98 -33 45 104 60 24 -35 — 18 74 -45 — 59 13 2,320 501 86 132 65 606 174 551 335 127 26 75 -24 9 76 -15 —5 4 76 -55 —40 54 122 61 12, 266 1,166 3,728 2,548 212 656 2,217 114 1 347 533 —51 -238 — 57 -62 9 -32 276 171 -928 —6 3 95 (4) — 14 —65 8, 568 4, 045 668 1,671 95 224 104 597 1,089 240 -819 -254 -225 206 -134 203 -268 21 7 32 -33 18 -5 136 -76 -68 -100 11,238 1,315 1,045 4,436 89 536 1,500 497 1,705 889 -46 -26 -39 140 237 -68 Q 16 34 -22 220 -70 -100 24 -324 83 -207 81 526 18 1 Totals for each exporting area include amounts for which destinations are not specified in sources, and therefore exceed sums of destination details. 2 Excludes U. S. military aid exports. 3 Excludes U. S. "special category" shipments for which destination details are withheld on security grounds. Figures for 1956 and for 1956-57 changes are based upon the "special category" coverage in effect until mid-1957, while 1957-58 changes are computed from revised data reflecting the more limited "special category" coverage subsequently in effect. 4 Less than $500,000. NOTE.—Data exclude exports of U. S. S. R. and Soviet bloc countries to each other. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: United Nations and Department of Commerce. 223 TABLE D—75.—Estimated gold reserves and dollar holdings of foreign countries and international institutions, 1952 and 1956-58 [Millions of dollars; end of period] Area and country 19 56 1952 19 57 1958 Sept. Dec. Sept. Dec. Mar. June Sept. 24, 451 32, 933 32, 621 32, 299 32, 712 33, 397 34, 704 35,708 8,651 14,429 14, 433 14, 756 15, 074 15, 251 15, 786 16, 892 149 358 377 432 460 465 473 561 1,027 1,141 691 665 1,277 1,638 3,112 1,288 1,239 1,512 3,343 1,270 1,173 1,013 4,077 1,460 1,190 955 4,113 1,533 1,266 921 3,983 1,530 1,400 916 4,052 1,682 1,477 1,030 4,340 1 876 824 1,136 1,080 983 1,058 1,274 1,302 1,402 606 3,548 837 4,783 882 4,730 969 4,649 980 4,785 983 4,829 940 5,021 1,042 5 164 , 3,473 4,160 4,157 3,847 4,243 4,851 5,135 5,206 United Kingdom. _ Other. 2,514 959 3,086 1,074 3,015 1,142 2,687 1,160 3,080 1,163 3,701 1,150 4,030 1,105 4,067 1,139 Total Continental Western Europe Austria Belgium-Luxembourg (and Belgian Congo) France (and dependencies) - . Germany .-. ._ Italy Netherlands (and Netherlands West Indies and Surinam) Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland) Other Sterling area Canada .- 2,627 2,899 2,996 3,229 3,195 3,163 3,432 3,378 Latin America 3,432 4,158 4,313 4,752 4,544 4,415 4,383 4,144 428 392 121 194 543 380 107 521 746 399 583 152 180 574 565 117 811 111 370 550 138 210 514 604 119 1,061 747 313 458 118 244 583 556 96 1,617 767 263 457 116 215 525 569 88 1,556 755 270 441 118 200 517 539 82 1,430 818 266 451 127 192 503 488 93 1,462 801 244 459 125 207 495 523 92 1,235 764 2,376 2,810 2,812 2,399 2,340 2,404 2,475 2,499 931 1,445 1, 190 1,620 1, 149 1,663 700 1,699 716 1,624 835 1,569 933 1,542 1 012 1,487 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia . ._ _ ... Cuba Mexico Peru . ._• Venezuela Other Asia Japan Other All other countries..International institutions 345 368 375 415 397 394 351 337 3,547 4,109 3,535 2,901 2,919 2,919 3,142 3,252 NOTE.—Includes gold reserves and dollar holdings of all foreign countries with the exception of gold reserves of U. S. S. R. and other Eastern European countries, and of international institutions (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Monetary Fund, United Nations and others). Holdings of the Bank for International Settlements (both for its own and EPU account) and of the Tripartite Commission for Restitution of Monetary Gold are included under "other" Continental Western Europe. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 224 TABLE D-76.—Price changes in international trade, 1955—58 [1953=100]! 1956 Trade sector 19 57 1958 1955 First quarter Third quarter 100 89 104 100 104 88 111 104 104 88 108 105 108 92 111 110 107 89 107 112 107 89 103 114 106 91 101 112 106 89 100 112 102 101 104 98 104 97 109 100 104 100 107 100 106 101 112 101 105 99 108 102 102 99 103 101 100 97 101 101 99 96 100 100 99 100 102 99 102 98 105 101 105 100 104 95 103 94 Manufactured goods 5 Nonferrous base metals 5 99 119 102 134 103 117 106 110 107 96 108 85 107 86 107 90 Primary commodities 6 Foodstuffs 6 Other agricultural commodities 6- _ Wool e Minerals 6 Metal ores 6 Crude petroleum 6 100 96 99 94 101 98 106 100 97 93 96 94 96 95 100 88 105 99 102 97 100 80 111 105 112 109 99 112 First Third quar- quarter ter First Second Third quar- quar- quarter ter ter United States foreign trade: 2 Exports: Total Foodstuffs Industrial materials Finished manufactures _ _ Imports for consumption: Total Foodstuffs _ Industrial materials Finished manufactures _ _ _. _ __ World trade: 3 Industrial countries' Exports Other countries: Exports _ (4) (4) Commodity classes: 102 84 102 103 104 107 111 104 108 108 104 119 112 107 102 96 94 77 91 69 109 99 112 90 65 108 99 112 1 Data shown for United States foreign trade and for country groups and for manufactured goods in the world trade section of the table are unit value indexes. All others are price indexes. For description of world trade indexes by commodity classes, see "Methods in Compiling the United Nations Price Indexes for Basic Commodities in International Trade," Statistical Paper, Series M, No. 29,2 United Nations, New York. The series shown for foodstuffs is the weighted average of the two commodity classes, crude foodstuffs and manufactured foodstuffs. The series shown for industrial materials is the weighted average of the two commodity classes, crude materials and semimanufactures. 34 Excludes trade of U. S. S. R. and Soviet bloc countries. Not available, s Exports. e Exports and imports. Sources: Department of Commerce and United Nations. 225 U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1959 O—489916