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- FEDORA/01r J (O fi/ M / ) November 1951 HOUSING STARTS new h o u s in g SOURCE. starts, u n it e d REMAIN HIGH states D EPARTM ENT OF LABOR hough below the unprecedented levels of Also In This Issue ----------- Fifth District Trend Charts______________Page 2 Trends In Farm Incom e_________________ Page 5 Fifth District N ewsbriefs________________ Page 7 shown by the chart above. The article on page 3 Population Growth______________________ Page 8 discusses current trends in residential construction. Business Conditions_____________________Page 10 1950, housing starts in the first three quar ters of 1951 were ahead of any previous year, as Statistical Data_________________________ Page 12 F e d e ra l R eserve Bank of Ricnmond F BANK if t h d is t r ic t T DEBITS r e n d s DEPARTMENT STORE INVENTORIES Adjusted bank debits in the District rose 2 per cent in September to a point 9 per cent above September last year. The current figure is within a fraction of a per cent below the high point established in March of this year, which is indicative of considerably greater strength in the District economy than indicated by basic production levels. Department store stocks have moved downward consistently since June on a seasonally adjusted basis, with September declining 4 per cent from August to a level only 11 per cent ahead of a year ago. Most of the decline has come in home furnishings and particularly in radio, television, etc. Inventories are still somewhat high in re lation to sales, but with inventories falling and sales rising, this situation can be corrected in a relatively short time. DEPARTMENT STORE OUTSTANDING ORDERS ACTIVE COTTON SPINDLE HOURS Cotton spindle hour operations, which measures the rate of activity of the mills, dropped 3 per cent from August to September after sea sonal correction and was 4 per cent under September a year ago. The rate of operations is higher than in July and at the same level as in April, but below all other months since July 1950 and within 6 per cent of high point of 1948. Indicative of selected improvement in the department store inven tory position, along with a favorable outlook for sales, unfilled or ders of department stores rose 14 per cent from August to Septem ber but were still well below a year ago when the inventory boom was in evidence. Indications in the market places are that some fur ther improvement in these orders has occurred in October. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES WHOLESALE PAPER AND PRODUCTS SALES 300 300 250 1943 The moderate upward trend in department store sales, in evidence each month since March, was broken in September when seasonally adjusted figures dropped 6 per cent from August to within 1 per cent of the level in September, 1950. Sales in hard lines have again revived, while women’s apparel and accessories have turned easier. Indications are that October will show considerable improvement over September. i 2y 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 195! The paper industry is one of considerable importance to the econ omy of the Fifth District, and, in this connection, it is interesting to note that sales of paper wholesalers in this District rose 2 per cent from August to September on an adjusted basis to a level 17 per cent ahead of a year ago. These sales in September have been exceeded only three times since our records are available. Novem ber 1951 The Housing Situation ■ - - «“ ■: : forecasts early this year that a much sharper mum down payments and maximum maturities of con ventional loans went into effect on October 12, 1950. decline in residential housing would take place, The Veterans Administration and the Federal Housing it is now almost a certainty that more than a million Administration also tightened their terms. In addition nonfarm housing units will be started in the United to credit controls, use of scarce materials was restricted States in 1951, for the third consecutive year, the third by National Production Authority, and metals products time in history that starts have crossed the one million became hard to procure. mark. Starts for the first three quarters totaled 852,000 units, 23% below the same period in 1950, but well . . . but the shortage of funds was more important. above the level for any preceding year. This is espe Each of these developments presumably served to cially interesting because this exceptionally high level of dampen building activity, but the effect of the action activity has been maintained in the face of a stringent taken by the Board of Gov shortage of mortgage funds, ernors of the Federal R e new direct regulations on serve System in March 1951 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION real estate credit, and, at m u st a ls o be a d d e d . In times, materials shortages. C U M U L A T IV E C O N TR A C TS AWARDED - F IF T H D IS TR IC T March, prices of Govern Residential construction ment securities were permit activity in the Fifth Federal Millions of Dollars 800 ted to drop below par, and Reserve District has, h ow sales of Governments came ever, d e c lin e d s o m e w h a t more than the national av to involve a penalty of as erage. District figures for much as 3 % . W hile G ov 600 ernments were at par, lend s ta r ts are n o t a v a ila b le . ing institutions could sell Home construction contract them without loss (or at a w a r d s th r o u g h A u g u s t prem ium), and invest the were valued at $454.7 mil 400 p r o c e e d s in m o r tg a g e s lion, down 9.4% from the c o r r e s p o n d in g p e r io d in yielding a higher rate. W ith 1950. For the thirty-seventhe penalty involved in the ✓ / 1948 200 sale of Government securi state area cast of the Rocky —* .• *1949 i< Mountains, value of residen ties, this source of funds for tial construction contracts mortgage lending virtually awarded were down 5.3% dried up. Additional tight for the same period. A s the ness was brought about by J F M A M J J A S O N D accompanying chart shows, the fact that most large SOURCE: F. W. DODGE CORPORATION the value of residential con lenders were already heavily struction contracts in the committed and the current District has been holding up quite well. Awards through flow of funds available from amortization and prepay August are considerably above any postwar year with ment of mortgages and new savings was largely ab sorbed in meeting these existing commitments. the exception of 1950. This tightness in mortgage funds forced many lenders Holding down activity were direct controls and to drop out of the market entirely. Others continued to make conventional loans, at a higher rate of interest, but materials shortages . . . F H A funds, yielding 4 *4% as compared with the 5% H ou sin g starts for the nation in 1950 w ere 1.4 m il to 5^4% on conventional loans, became relatively tight. lion, alm ost tw o-fifths m ore units than 1949’s total V A loans, yielding 4 % , were no longer made by most which set the previous all-time record. W ith the Korean lenders on a current basis, although some lenders con crisis and the giant mobilization effort projected, it tinued to make such loans on a very limited basis in or seemed essential to reduce some of the pressure on der not to be completely “ out of the market” . prices and on materials resulting from the heavy flow of spendings originating in housing construction. Conse Funds are becoming more available . . . quently, Congress charged the Federal Reserve System, By early fall 1951, many mortgage lenders found along with the Housing and Home Finance Adminis themselves in an easier position as the unusually large trator, with the responsibility for direct controls over volume of outstanding commitments ran out and the real estate credit. Regulation X , which prescribed mini flow of savings increased. W hen the last wave of con- D e s p it e -{ 3 ^ F e d e ra l Reserve Bank of Richmond sumer scare buying subsided in February, savings started mounting rapidly, and this has been an impor tant factor in increasing the supply of mortgage funds. . . . but are still tight. Nevertheless, in mid-October the supply of mortgage funds could still be best described as “ tight” . Plenty of funds seem to be available in most areas for conven tional loans, although interest rates run as much as 1% higher than a year ago. Generally, F H A funds are in reasonable supply, and a few large lenders are coming back into the market for V A loans on a highly selective basis. Actually, the supply of money available for new mortgage loans has already improved enough for inter est rates on conventional loans to be under slight down ward pressure in some areas. That this tendency is not general is shown by recent increases in rates on prime commercial loans of banks. If interest rates on conven tional loans do ease off to any appreciable extent, F H A and V A loans will become relatively more attractive. Credit controls are easier . . . In August (in the Defense Housing A ct of 1951), Congress specified maximum real estate credit controls considerably below the levels then in effect. Down pay ments on homes financed under F H A or conventional terms are now 10% on a $7,000 home, 15% on a $10,000 home, and 20% on a $12,000 home, as com pared with 17.1%, 23.0% , and 25.8% before Septem ber 1, 1951. Down payments required on V A loans are 4 % for a $7,000 home, 6% for a $10,000 home, and 8% for a $12,000 home, reduced from 7.1% , 13.0%, and 15.8%. The relaxation of terms on higher cost homes was not nearly so important; the down payment on homes costing more than $15,000 was reduced by $100. . . . demand is still strong . . . Under the new relaxed terms, demand for homes has been stimulated to some extent, though this appears to be very spotty, since some areas seem well supplied at current prices and under current terms. The defense effort is producing substantial shifts in population, which always require new housing. Movements of defense workers are breaking up family units, and frequently creating a demand for new dwellings in defense areas. Recent legislation increases the scope of Federal A gen cies in mortgage lending activity, particularly in de fense areas. Incomes of individuals are high and continuing to rise, placing more and more families in a position where they want to increase the quality of their housing ac commodations. If the availability of mortgage funds im proves sufficiently to make the V A mortgage appear relatively attractive, additional demand for building will be created, as a sizeable potential market for homes fi nanced under V A terms still exists in many areas. . . . and materials appear to be the limiting factor in future months. Builders in this area seem to be able to get needed items without too much trouble currently and only spot shortages exist, but the new Controlled Materials Plan sets absolute limits on the amount of materials which can be put into residential dwellings, since they are ex pected to be in shorter supply next year. Then builders are likely to have considerable difficulty in procuring materials, even though authorized to use them. The outstanding feature of the Controlled Materials Plan as it applies to residential construction is that it permits contractors to “ self-authorize” use of specified maximum amounts of carbon steel and copper. The re striction on copper itself is not of too great importance since many homes were built in the immediate postwar period with virtually no copper. These dual restrictions (on the use of both copper and steel) will be much more effective than the restriction on either alone would have been, by limiting substitution of steel for copper. Most houses will be in the lower price ranges. The Controlled Materials Plan makes it extremely difficult to construct the larger, more expensive home. There are, of course, ways of getting around the use of critical metals— homes may be built with only one bathroom installed, but with space left for another; bath room and kitchen may be built closer together, or the house may be faced so that a minimum of piping or wir ing from the street is required; basements may be omit ted, or wood substituted for steel. The need for substi tution or other special arrangements increases with the size of the house. W ith careful planning, a six- or sevenroom house and possibly a bath and a half might be squeezed out under current restrictions. The restrictions on materials will serve as a positive deterrent to construction of more expensive housing, as will the relatively larger down payment. Conversely, the easier terms and the lack of restriction on materials will stimulate construction of smaller homes. The over-all outlook is uncertain . . . The residential construction outlook can only be de scribed as hazy. In many areas the pre-Regulation X commitments which supported construction through most of 1951 have run out. Demand for conventional loans is uncertain. The supply of funds at rates per mitted by F H A and particularly by V A , although im proving, cannot be foreseen with certainty. The amount of critical materials which can be made available to the building industry for 1952 is questionable. Finally, any change in the mobilization picture would change the materials situation. . . . but activity will probably be at high levels. Raymond M. Foley, Housing and Hom e Finance A d ministrator, was recently quoted as saying that housing starts in 1952 might total 800,000 to 850,000 units. W hile this is substantially below starts for the past three years, it exceeds starts for each year from 1928 through 1946. Much of this activity will be concentrated in de fense areas. \ 4y N ove m b e r 1951 Trends In Farm Income* conditions and trends have far more to do pies of shifts within agriculture include attacks of in sects and disease, such as once abolished the Sea Island with the level of farm income in a particular area than whether its farmers are good or poor farmers. This cotton industry in South Carolina and the peach indus try in Eastern Maryland. conclusion can not be escaped by anyone who studies Shifts in the relative importance of various farm en the pattern of farm income over the past twenty-five terprises are significant both to farmers and to those years and attempts to interpret causal factors with the groups engaged in processing and distributing the vari objective of giving some practical admonition. ous products. Bankers also may be affected by the N o one would contend that farmers in the Fifth Fed changes. A n investment in a cotton gin in an area that eral Reserve District did so much poorer a job of farm was cutting back sharply on cotton production or aban ing in 1932 than in 1929 that this factor would account doning it entirely might have been more hazardous than for the sharp decline in farm income from nearly $700 an investment in a needed marketing facility for some million in 1929 to under $300 million three years later. product that had proved its All will agree that farmers metal and was enjoying a are more efficient now than sound expansion. they were in the 1920’s and CASH FARM INCOME, FIFTH DISTRICT, 1924-1950 early 1930’s. N o one would Cotton Down, Tobacco contend, however, that the Up in Importance Millions of Dollars six-fold increase in farm in In the late 1920’s cotton come from the depression was the leading source of low of the thirties is largely farm income in the District. a ttr ib u ta b le to increased From 1924-29 the cotton farm efficiency. The expla crop (lint and seed) ac nation is therefore not to counted for 27 cents out of be found within agriculture each dollar of farm income. but rather in those power In each successive five-year ful forces associated w^ith period thereafter this share the great depression of the declined until it accounted 1930’s and with the W orld for only 12 cents during the W a r I I and p o s t - W o r l d period 1945-49 and 8 cents W ar II inflationary boom. in 1950. By way of historical illus T o b a c c o has b een the tration it is to be noted that leading source of farm in intensified competition from the wheat lands of the M id come in the District since the depression. In 1950 it dle W est caused the great accounted for $677 million or 36% of the total cash farm Shenandoah Valley to turn from grain farming, for income. This share was nearly double the 19% ac which its reputation was widely recognized as the counted for by tobacco in 1924-29. It should be noted “ Bread Basket of the Confederacy” , to horse raising. that the 1950 share was abnormally large since the 1950 The coming of the automobile and the tractor sounded cotton crop was short and income from cotton was de the death knell to this business, and now in one part of pressed despite the high price that prevailed. In 1944the valley many of the farms which once were wheat 49, a period that may be regarded as more nearly nor farms, and then were horse farms, are now pasturing mal than 1950 because of the short cotton crop, tobacco cattle and raising commercial broilers. accounted for 31% of the total cash farm income. Developments that are largely external to agriculture, E c o n o m ic such as wars and periods of inflation and deflation mani festly have profound effects upon farming patterns and income levels. So are farming patterns and farm income affected by shifts within agriculture, such as the opening up of wheat and rice lands further west. Other exam- Other crops, taken as a group, have shown a slight but consistent downward trend in relative importance. During the period 1924-29 they accounted for 27% of the total farm income, but by 1945-49 the corresponding figure was 21% . Their positions and historical rises and falls are observed in the accompanying table. * A booklet, entitled F a rm Incom e in the F ifth Federal R eserve D is trict—-A Graphic Sum m ary, has been published by this bank. State and District income data in chart and table form, showing changes in vari ous farm products from 1935 through 1947 are provided. Copies may be obtained from the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Rich mond. <5 V Livestock Increasing in Importance This area has found livestock and livestock products (hereafter referred to as livestock) to be a source of F e d e ra l R eserve Bank of Richmond relative strength in the farm income situation. Income from livestock, as with everything else, declined from 1929 through 1932. However, livestock income fell only 47% , whereas income from crops dropped 63% . On the other hand, since 1935-39 income from livestock has nearly quadrupled, whereas income from crops has only slightly more than tripled. This greater relative increase in income from livestock is associated with a rise in the actual production of livestock in this area. For the country as a whole there also has been a greater rela tive rise in the prices of livestock than in the prices of crops. national or international occurrences of major magni tude. Unfortunately, however, they must adjust their operations to the passing parade. H ow well or how CASH R E C EIPTS FRO M L IV E S T O C K A N D P R O D U C T S AS P R O P O R T IO N O F CASH R EC EIP TS F RO M FA R M M A R K E T IN G S Fifth District by States, Specified Periods, 1924 to Date Period 1924-29 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1949 1950 Despite heavy and desirable livestock expansion in this District, the share of total cash farm income in creased only moderately from 28% in 1924-29 to 36% in 1945-49. Fortunately, this increase has been quite general throughout the District, though total income from all livestock and livestock products in 1950 of $684 million barely exceeded the $677 million income from the single crop-tobacco. Maryland Virginia 49.1 55.1 54.3 61.5 65.1 68.6 67.9 39.2 45.8 47.1 50.4 51.5 54.6 50.2 West North Virginia Carolina 65.6 70.6 72.8 77.0 77.3 82.4 77.6 South Carolina Fifth District 12.5 17.3 16.5 19.6 20.8 22.7 23.5 27.7 32.0 31.2 35.1 36.0 39.4 36.5 13.6 14.8 14.7 17.9 18.6 20.7 18.4 poorly various farmers have managed to adapt their op erations both from year to year and over longer periods can be judged in part by comparing their respective in comes. Neither the individual farmers, nor farmers as a group, can control or exert too much influence on the major economic tides which, in turn, are the results of C O N T R IB U T IO N OF V A R IO U S FAR M P R O D U CTS TO CASH R ET U R N S FR O M FAR M M A R K E T IN G S Fifth District, Specified Periods, 1924 to Date1 Percentage Distribution Marketings 1924-29 1930-34 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1949 1950 1924-29 1930-34 Million Dollars 1935-39 1940-44 1945-49 1949 1950 Per Cent Crops Tobacco ______ 131 Cotton .............. 169 Corn _________ 11 Peanuts ______ 16 Fruit _______ __ 34 Truck Crops .... 30 Forest Products 20 Wheat ________ 22 Potatoes -------- 26 Cottonseed ____ 16 Sweet Potatoes 7 Other Crops .... 21 99 71 5 9 20 20 11 10 15 7 5 13 166 75 9 15 23 25 13 14 13 10 6 15 276 119 14 32 36 43 20 16 17 17 10 30 544 182 41 50 62 60 32 35 27 23 15 56 511 178 46 60 46 48 27 32 22 17 14 58 677 127 51 50 50 50 42 30 17 17 14 63 18.9 24.3 1.5 2.3 4.8 4.3 2.8 3.2 3.7 2.4 1.0 3.1 23.7 17.0 1.1 2.1 4.8 4.7 2.5 2.5 3.5 1.8 1.2 3.1 29.8 13.4 1.7 2.7 4.2 4.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.0 2.7 28.6 12.3 1.4 3.3 3.7 4.4 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.0 3.1 30.9 10.4 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.4 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.3 0.8 3.2 29.3 10.2 2.6 3.4 2.6 2.8 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.8 3.3 36.1 6.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 3.4 Crops.. 502 283 384 628 1,126 1,059 1,188 72.3 68.0 68.8 64.9 64.0 60.6 63.5 62 21 31 22 43 53 15 19 11 25 59 21 32 22 28 98 71 49 49 54 178 125 105 91 99 198 131 111 99 109 201 134 116 100 90 8.9 3.1 4.5 3.2 6.1 12.7 3.5 4.7 2.7 6.0 10.6 3.8 5.8 3.9 5.0 10.1 7.4 5.1 5.1 5.6 10.1 7.1 6.0 5.2 5.7 11.3 7.5 6.4 5.7 6.2 10.7 7.2 6.2 5.3 4.8 14 10 12 17 34 39 44 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.3 Total Live stock2 ____ 193 133 174 339 633 688 684 27.7 32.0 31.2 35.1 36.0 39.4 36.5 416 558 967 1,759 1,747 1,872 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total Livestock2 Dairy Products Chickens _____ Cattle & Calves Hogs __________ Eggs --------------Other Live stock2 ______ Total Crops & Livestock2 695 1 Totals and percentages made before figures were rounded. 2 Includes livestock products. Note: Comparable data for each state of the Fifth Federal Reserve District are available upon request to the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. i 6 y November 1951 * ^ u A $ ^ A & m ? $ $ * £ % ?y «& y\ ( 9Vj#A D i* tA .ie£ cMew-jdh/tiz^jd ^\ * A I W OT) • <^J V# © r s «? S <3 Expansion Still Surges— Utica & M o hawk Cotton Mills recently announced cessation of manufacturing operations in Utica, N. Y . early next year upon completion of their giant cotton mill and bleachery under construction near Clemson, S. C. All the firm’s manufacturing and administrative activities will be transferred from Utica to the new plant and to the present division at Seneca, S . C. Other additions to the Carolinas’ textile industry include plans by Robbins Mills for completing and equipping its Raeford, N. C. plant at a cost of $4.5 million and the construction near Greenwood, S. C. by Greenwood Mills of a $6.8 million, 1,500-loom cotton mill. n d u s t r ia l News of interest to this District’s textile and chemical industries was disclosed at the recent stockholders’ meet ing of Goodall-Sanford that four of the largest producers of synthetic fibers plan production increases by the end of 1953 that will outweigh the total annual wood clip of this country. It was asserted that duPont, Union Carbide & Chemical, Virginia-Carolina Chemical, and Chemistrand will boost output of nylon, dacron, orlon, acrilan, dynel, and vicara by more than 250 million pounds annually. Libbey-Owens-Ford Glass Co. recently announced specifications for 18 different yarns to be marketed in seven forms and 22 superfine glass fibre products to be manufactured at its new Fibre Glass Division in Park ersburg, W . Va. Another addition to W est Virginia industry is a $2.5 million anhydrous ammonia plant to be constructed in South Charleston by F ood Machinery and Chemical Co. The W est Virginia Pulp & Paper Co. has announced that it will spend $50 million on new plant facilities during the next few years, including a $3.5 million sulphate wood plant at Luke, Md. Am ong projected capital expansions in the Old D o minion are $2.8 million of improvements and additions by Dan River Mills to its power plant at the Schoolfield Division, and an addition to the duPont nylon plant near Martinsville that will increase floor space by 100,000 sq. ft. and add 300 workers. Norfolk & W est ern Railroad is building a new classification yard at its Lamberts Point piers near Norfolk which will cost about $1.4 million. The new yard will provide 30 additional tracks to expedite coal dumpings into ships. Small Business Shares Defense W ork— The Glenn L. Martin Co. of Baltimore has announced that over 3.000 subcontractors and suppliers, including over 850 Maryland firms, will share this year’s $88 million vol ume of business. Illustrative of the extent to which Martin subcontracts is the Canberra jet bomber in which 60% of the work will be subcontracted to smaller firms. The Power Behind Industrial Growth Over $30 million will be spent by Duke Power Co. for the 270,000 kilowatt installation at its Buck steamgenerating plant near Spencer, N. C., which now has a capacity of 200,000 kw. The additional power for ex panding industry in the Piedmont area is scheduled to go on line early in 1953. Other plans for boosting power output in the Tarheel State include a $27.5 mil lion, 90,000 kw. hydro-electric plant of Virginia Elec tric & Power near Gaston, N. C. W ork on this project will probably wait on the outcome of the litigation brought by the U. S. Interior Department over another projected plant of this company at Roanoke Rapids. Maryland’s power supply has been augmented by the 75.000 kw. generating unit recently put in service by Consolidated Gas, Electric, Light & Power Co. at its Baltimore County steam plant. This station’s new ca pacity of 255,000 kw. will be further increased by an other 75,000 kw. unit planned for service before the end of 1953. The company’s expansion program, which con templates annual outlays of about $30 million, includes a 100.000 kw. addition to its Gould Street station in Balti more scheduled for operation late next year. The com pany will then have a total capacity of nearly 850,000 kw.— over three times its power output a decade ago. Tax Concessions Condemned The Southeastern States T ax Officials Association recently spoke out strongly against inducements to new industry in the form of tax concessions and land and capital donations. A resolution signed by tax officials of 11 states urged that Southeastern states and cities attract new industry on the basis of their natural re sources, availability of raw materials, labor, and trans portation facilities, and other local and regional ad vantages. j 7 }> F e d e ra l Reserve Bank of Richmond Population Growth in the Fifth District Increases Have Exceeded the National Rate District of Columbia contributed more than threein the Fifth District increased at a faster fourths of the state’s gain in population. Kanawha rate than the national average, gained through inmigration, and trended towards further urbanization in County, W est Virginia, furnished more than two-fifths the period from 1940 to 1950. These are the major dis of the entire increase in the state’s population between closures from final figures in the seventeenth decennial 1940 and 1950. Eight of North Carolina’s 100 coun census. ties— Cumberland, Durham, Forsyth, Gaston, Guilford, Mecklenburg, Onslow and W ake— accounted for nearly Interestingly, the pattern of growth has differed wide ly and sharp changes have taken place in the distribu one-half of the state’s population gain. More than threetion of population— varying increases have occurred in fifths of South Carolina’s increase in population oc la r g e u rb a n a re a s, w h ile curred in four counties— m o st ru ra l a rea s e x p e r i C h a r le s to n , G r e e n v ille , enced losses or only nomi Richland, and Spartanburg. POPULATION IN THE FIFTH D ISTRICT- I9 6 0 nal gains. The District’s P o p u la t io n changes v a population now stands at ried widely in each state, Ml LLIONS OF PERSONS 14.4 million (compared with but generally homogeneous agricultural, mining and in 12.3 million in 1940) and more than half still lives in d u s tr ia l a rea s e x h ib it e d similar patterns of growth. rural areas while less than 3.6 Considering the 319 coun two-fifths live in metropoli tan areas. ties or county-city combina The ten-year increase of tions in the District, 55 had 2.1 million persons for the an increase of more than 2.4 D i s t r i c t w as 1 7 .2 % , and 20% in population, 49 in contrasts with a 19 million creased from 10% to 20% , (or 14.5% ) increase for the 114 gained up to 10%, while 1.2 country as a whole. The 48 lost up to 5% of their population and 53 decreased District’s “ share” of the na tion’s population thus grew by more than 5% . In gen eral population moved from from 9.4% to 9.6% . Inter O N.C. VA. MD. S.C. W.VA. D.G predominantly rural coun e s t in g ly th is in c r e a s e in SOURCE- U.S. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS population during the dec ties to urban regions and Includes only that port of West Virginia located within the District ade was equivalent to the from agricultural areas to addition of a state the size industrial areas. Counties of W est Virginia or South e x p e r ie n c in g rapid indus Carolina. Put another way, the net addition was equal trial expansion or increased Federal Government activi to the combined population of the three largest cities ties showed the greatest population gains. Primarily in the District— Baltimore, Washington, and Richmond. agricultural counties generally showed losses or only nominal gains. A ll Fifth District states now have a larger popula tion than in 1940, though considerable variation in W hile more than half the population of the country growth occurred among them as well as within them. was living in standard metropolitan areas at the time of Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia each the 1950 census, less than two-fifths of the population experienced a growth of more than 20% in population— of the Fifth District was living in such areas. A stand considerably higher than the District average. In the ard metropolitan area is defined as an area containing other states gains were somewhat less than average for at least one city of 50,000 or more, the county contain the District— 13.7% in North Carolina, 11.4% in ing the city, and any other contiguous counties closely economically integrated with the city. There are 15 South Carolina and 6.4% in W est Virginia. Significant changes were recorded in some of the such areas wholly within the Fifth District and two par large urban areas while most rural areas had absolute tially within the District, and in these population in or relative declines. Nearly three-fourths of the increase creased three times as rapidly as the remaining areas in the population of Maryland was accounted for by in the District and accounted for nearly two-thirds of Baltimore, Prince Georges and Montgomery Counties the entire District’s increase in population from 1940 to 1950. and Baltimore city. In Virginia, the Hampton Roads and Richmond areas and the counties adjacent to the Population growth in Fifth District metropolitan P o p u l a t io n *! 8 y Novem ber 1951 areas was, as might have been ex pected, at a faster rate in the suburbs CHANGE IN POPULATION, 1940-1950 and surrounding sections than in the FIFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT, BY COUNTIES central cities themselves. In the Washington area, for example, the increase amounted to 21.0% in the central city and 117.1% in the sur rounding areas. In the Baltimore area, c o r r e s p o n d i n g figures were 10.5% and 72.9% . This character istic of growth was exhibited in all except four District metropolitan areas, and in each of these areas the city’s greater rate of growth was due to its having annexed territory from the surrounding county since the 1940 census. W hile population shifts in the Dis trict during the past ten years indi cate a movement from rural to urban areas, the District is still consider ably more rural than the nation gen erally. Rural population comprised about 36% of the nation’s total in 1950, with a corresponding figure of 53.4% for the Fifth District. If the D i s t r i c t o f C o lu m b ia , w h ic h is wholly urban, is eliminated from the p ic t u r e , th e p e r c e n t a g e o f ru ra l ■ ■ IN C R E A S E OF MORE T H A N 2 0 .0 % population in the District rises to IIS ilt IN C R E A S E OF 10.1% TO 2 0 0 % 56.5%. TOM S IN C R EA SE OF 0 0 % TO 10 0% Strict comparisons of rural and l- m DECREASE OF 0 .0 % TO. 5 .0 % SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE CENSUS I-------- 1------- DEC R EA SE OF MORE T H A N 5 .0 % urban population growth from 1940 to 1950 cannot be made because the Census Bureau altered its 1950 defi nition of urban population. Using out-migration had an important amount of in-migration. the 1940 definition of urban population, however, it is Undoubtedly there was considerable movement within found, that in the Fifth District states, urban population the states themselves. increased by 26.6% between 1940 and 1950 while rural population grew only 11.1% during the period. Historically, the Fifth District has been an exporter N atural Increase The growth of population in the Fifth District as a whole has been due almost entirely to net natural in crease, i.e., excess of births over deaths. The Fifth Dis trict states showed a net inmigration of only 68,000 per sons. Net migration varied markedly among Fifth District states. Net in-migration totaled 288,000 in Maryland, 215,000 in Virginia, and 46,000 in the Dis trict of Columbia. On the other hand, each of the re maining District states recorded a net out-migration of population during the 1940’s, the figures b ein g: W est Virginia, 188,000; North Carolina, 166,000; and South Carolina, 127,000. It should be emphasized that the above figures relate to net migration only, and on a state basis. Gross migra tion was much larger; even those states showing a net of population. During the 1930’s, however, the previous trend of net out-migration was reversed. Between 1930 and 1940 the District recorded a net in-migration, large ly due to the expansion of industrial opportunities in the District and the expansion of Governmental activities in the District of Columbia. W hile the trend of net inmigration continued in the 1940’s, many areas in the District were unable to assimilate their natural increases during the period. Rural counties which were unable to attract new industries lost many of their youths to areas of greater opportunity. Many agricultural counties ex perienced losses or at best, showed nominal gains in population— indeed, some of these seem to have acquired as dense a population as their agriculture will com fort ably support while improved farming techniques con tinue to reduce the number of workers required. 19y F e d e ra l Reserve Bank of Richmond Business Conditions And Prospects activity in the Fifth District was generally lower in September than in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, but there were a few spots where im provement is indicated. September production in the major industries receded from August levels and ap parently no great improvement took place in the first half of October. Employment levels, however, remained fairly steady in the southern part of the District and are rising in the northern portion. Production cutbacks have been rather substantial, but there has been little result ing unemployment. Reduced output has been accom plished by reduction of working time. This, of course, has lowered payrolls which has, in turn, been reflected at the retail trade level. u s in e s s B Sales of department and furniture stores, which had been in a moderately upward trend for several months, dropped from August to September on a seasonally ad justed basis. Several lines of wholesale trade, however, mainly in the hard goods lines, show rather sizeable above seasonal rises from August to September. These rises are no doubt occasioned by the regulated cuts in production and are in anticipation of coming shortages. On the expansive side, bank debits rose to within strik ing distance of the year’s high and outstanding orders of department stores picked up 14%. There remains also the large military construction volume which will undoubtedly be activated in the not too distant future. Somewhat higher operations are noted in the full fash ioned hosiery industry, but not much improvement has occurred as yet in the seamless branch. Although sales of furniture stores in September de clined 5% from August on an adjusted basis, their in ventories were likewise down 5% and at a level only 3% ahead of a year ago. As a consequence of this im proved inventory picture, there has been some improve ment in orders at the manufacturers’ level. The rising level of employment in the shipyards of the District will probably be tempered, since the Maritime Administration has suspended operations on 14 of 35 fast freighters under construction. W ork already under way, however, may maintain employment levels for some time. Am ong the suspensions were two at the Bethlehem-Sparrow’s Point Yard and one at the N ew port News Shipbuilding and Dry Dock Company. These suspensions were occasioned by a reduction in steel al lotments. The South Carolina Employment Service estimated that 8,500 workers would be added to payrolls up to mid-October, most of them at the Savannah River Atom ic Project. C otton T extiles Cotton consumed by the mills of the Fifth District declined 6% seasonally adjusted from August to Sep tember, and September was the same percentage below that month a year ago. Cotton spindle hour operations in the industry declined 3% to a level 4 % below a year ago. This is a smaller reduction than pessimistic trade reports seemed to indicate. There has been a consid erable amount of selective purchasing of cotton goods in recent weeks and the general outlook seems better. The degree of improvement in operations is problematical, since little is known of the manufacturers’ inventory position, but thus far the amount of setback in the in dustry seems small in the aggregate. September cotton consumption was 16% below the peak adjusted month of March, and September spindle hour operations were only 10% below the March peak. Loans of the weekly reporting banks continued to rise seasonally through the week of October 18, with all classes of loans gaining except the “ all other” group. Business loans have been rising since August 30 mainly because of gains in loans to food and tobacco manufac turers and to commodity dealers. The trend in real estate loans has been downward and about flat in “ other” loans which are largely to consumers. Demand deposits of these banks are still rising, having gained $83 million in the week of October 18 and $289 million from a year ago. Time deposits of individuals and busi nesses gained $1.3 million in the week but were $1.6 million under a year ago. Tobacco marketings through October 19 are about 15 million pounds or 1.5 per cent higher than a year ago, while the season’s average prices are 2.6 cents or 4.5% under last year. The tobacco crop, however, is market ing slowly because of the dry weather. Its estimated size of 1,249 million pounds is nearly 10 per cent larger than last year and, if present prices hold through the season, it will give growers a moderately larger income than last year. The cotton crop estimated at 1,534,000 bales for the District is 160% larger than last year, but early season prices were running 16.5% under last year. Assuming the season’s price at 36 cents or 2 cents above the August-September average, the crop this year will yield 86% more income than last year and 47% more than the 1949 crop. The drought has not appreciably affected the milk supply, but it has required an increase in grain feeding. N o reliable measures of total retail sales of cotton goods are available, but in the District there are some indications that such sales are increasing. This applies to such cotton items as aprons, house dresses, uniforms, infants’ wear, draperies, upholstery, and domestics, linens, sheetings, etc. In the last three lines, these sales are higher than at any other time in history with the exception of three or four months during the scare buy ing periods of last summer and winter. In general, the HO y Novem ber 1951 retail investories of these cotton goods items are moving in a downward direction. Rayan deliveries in September dropped 16% from August and 21% from a year ago, and indications late in October were that no improvement had taken place. The chief cause of the drop was filament yarns. Staple shows very little reduction and tire yarns were running near peak levels. Further cutbacks in production by District mills were announced for October. improvement is noted in such items as radios and tele vision. W om en’s apparel and accessories, which had pre viously shown improving sales volume, have receded in the past two months. Infants’ wear continues to increase with the growth in baby population. M en’s clothing sales have held on a steady keel at about the same level for several years. Stocks, however, have shown some increase over the past year and have not yet been worked down. Basement store sales have resumed the rate of growth that has been evident since 1940. Men’s and boys’ wear in basement departments has been doing con siderably better than upstairs. Department Stores Department store sales in this District have been showing moderate but steady improvement since the low point reached in March. September sales, however, dropped 6% from August on an adjusted basis to a level 1% below a year ago, but the October figure will be higher. The drop in the adjusted index was caused by a failure of sales to maintain a normal seasonal in crease from August to September. It did not prevent store stocks from declining 4 % on an adjusted basis from August to September to a level only 11% ahead of a year ago. This is the third consecutive month of decline from the June peak which amounts to an over all decline of around 8 % . It should be noted that the sales of housefurnishings have been exceeded in only three previous months. Sharing in this improvement in housefurnishings have been furniture, floor coverings, and major household appliances. Men’s shoes have sold in very good volume in recent months and considerable The situation for the District in general appears mixed. The chief interruption to full-time operations of business in the District has been in the textile and ap parel industries. The demand for the products of these industries at the retail level has been rising. The inven tory situation at both wholesale and retail level has been worked into a more tenable position. It seems probable, therefore, that these industries will be able to operate at a better level in the not too distant future, though as of late October there had apparently been little improve ment. New industrial construction not yet completed and projected military construction will place heavy de mands on the labor supply and this, together with mili tary withdrawals of manpower, will maintain a tight labor market. D E B IT S TO IN D IV ID U A L A C C O U N TS Sept. 1951 (000 omitted) Sept. 1950 Dist. of Columbia 996,337 Washington $ 1,043,040 $ Maryland 1,147,727 1,085,405 Baltimore 24,000 24,326 Cumberland 19,458 21,546 Frederick 31,721 30,819 Hagerstown North Carolina 59,042 55,988 Asheville 344,938 367,955 Charlotte 164,611 176,177 Durham 96,097 95,717 Greensboro 51,594 57,964 Kinston 155,210 175,931 Raleigh 42,231 44,572 Wilmington 71,328 62,231 Wilson 175,525 171,413 W inston- Salem South Carolina 74,536 66,548 Charleston 114,527 128,437 Columbia 104,133 Greenville 107,513 66,579 Spartanburg 74,803 Virginia 28,231 25,651 Charlottesville 49,244 37,100 Danville 43,745 43,895 Lynchburg 43,622 32,681 Newport News 200,334 231,567 Norfolk 23,958 23,633 Portsmouth 620,031 658,178 Richmond 113,104 120,652 Roanoke West Virginia 46,785 47,109 Bluefield 143,018 145,338 Charleston 32,304 33,576 Clarksburg 58,244 66,059 Huntington 29,572 30,174 Parkersburg District Totals $ 5,348,594 $ 5,109,190 51 R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S -—5TH D IS T R IC T (000 Omitted) 9 Months 1951 $ 9,504,632 9 Months 1950 $ ITEMS 7,660,077 11,040,874 228,331 188,878 289,966 9,397,057 204,150 161,376 250,411 533,571 3,020,990 1,015,759 898,489 202,153 1,496,432 384,648 213,731 1,488,392 455,218 2,572,388 913,878 759,121 171,699 1,242,866 314,378 207,494 1,275,407 670,492 1,132,409 987,490 600,309 556,846 939,372 807,269 455,689 243,455 271,581 409,737 378,083 1,951,598 222,906 5,039,352 1,025,433 214,662 241,627 353,780 269,245 1,817,603 192,276 4,445,967 894,200 421,063 1,356,365 305,609 593,831 275,896 $ 46,392,455 366,298 1,160,277 268,897 520,031 238,195 $ 39,327,754 Oct. 17, 1951 Change in Amount from Sept. 12, Oct. 18, 1951 1950 Total Loans ____________________ $1,175,360** Business and Agricultural 571,600 Real Estate Loans __________ 234,526 All Other Loans _____________ 383,717 Total Security Holdings _______ 1,793,699 U. S. Treasury Bills _________ 242,486 U. S. Treasury Certificates 129,501 U. S. Treasury Notes ________ 310,481 U. S. Treasury Bonds ________ . 925,436 Other Bonds, Stocks & Secur.. . 185,795 Cash Items in Process of Col. —. 303,938 Due from Banks _______________ 218,233* Currency and Coin _____________ 76,827 Reserve with F. R. Banks _____ 577,075 Other Assets ____________________ 53,439 Total Assets _________________ 4,198,517 + 24,821 + 20,557 + 1,756 + 2,511 + 47,621 — 955 + 42,588 — 6,155 + 1,760 + 10,383 -1- 5,271 + 19,295 — 13 + 29,104 — 1,989 +124,110 + 86,076 + 60,213 — 2,559 + 30,773 + 63,658 + 109,464 + 105,203 — 29,378 — 137,080 + 15,449 + 15,130 + 35,746 + 7,015 +114,979 + 1,014 +323,618 Total Demand Deposits ________ 3,281,063 Deposits of Individuals _______ 2,419,410 Deposits of U . S. Govt. _______ 87,089 Deposits of State & Loc. Gov. .. 168,235 Deposits of Banks ____________. 545,595* Certified & Officers’ Checks — 60,734 Total Time Deposits ____________ 634,168 566,714 Deposits of Individuals _______ 67,454 Other Time Deposits ________ Liabilities for Borrowed Money. 0 All Other Liabilities ____________ 31,235 Capital Accounts _______________ 252,051 Total Liabilities ______________ 4,198,517 +118,450 + 23,353 + 24,722 + 22,697 + 39,202 + 8,476 + 7,704 + 7,868 — 164 — 6,500 + 3,026 + 1,430 +124,110 +288,823 +179,309 + 16,331 + 23,563 + 63,418 + 6,202 + 19,793 — 1,600 + 21,393 — 1,000 + 4,365 + 11,637 +323,618 * Net figures, reciprocal balances being eliminated. ** Less losses for bad debts. a n F e d e ra l Reserve Bank of Richmond S E L E C T E D F IF T H D IST R IC T B U SIN E S S IN D E X E S A V E R A G E D A IL Y 1935-39 = 100— S E A S O N A L L Y A D JU STE D Sept. 1951 ----------------Automobile Registration1 Bank Debits ....................................... . Bituminous Coal Production----------------------------------- _ Construction Contracts Awarded ........... Business Failures— No. ---------Cigarette Production ............................................................ Cotton Spindle Hours ..................................... Department Store Sales Electric Power Production .................................................. Employment— Manufacturing Industries1 -----------------Life Insurance Sales -------- ---------------------— 430 151 421 50 235 149 328 ___ ___ 294 Aug. 1951 Jul. 1951 Sept. 1950 187 423 160 571 45 250 153 350 352 156 322 184 427 161 590 74 250 134 351 341 151 314 245 395 151 606 65 231 155 330 323 151 341 % Change-—Latest Monti Prev. Mo. Year Age + + — — + — — — + + — 2 2 6 26 11 6 3 6 3 3 9 — + — — + — — + + — 37 9 0 31 23 2 4 1 10 5 14 1 Not seasonally adjusted. Back figures available on request. W H O LE SA L E TRADE Sales in Sept. 1951 compared with LINES Sept. Aug. 1950 1951 Auto supplies (9) ------------- _______ — 44 + 2 + 16 Electrical goods (4) --------- ----------- + 7 — 4 Hardware (9) -------------------- _______ — 18 + 33 Industrial supplies (5) ----------------- + 3 1 Drugs & sundries (11) ----------------- + 7 + 3 — 13 Dry goods (14) ---------------- _______ — 16 — 4 Groceries (58) -------------------- ----------- + 2 — 7 Paper & products (7) ------- ----------- + 4 — 12 Tobacco & products (8) — ----------- + 1 1 0 Miscellaneous (84) -------------_______ — 12 _______ — 7 — 2 District Totals (209) B U IL D IN G P E R M IT F IG U R E S Sept. Sept. 9 Months 1950 1951 1951 Stocks on Sept. 30, 1951 compared with Sept. 30 Aug. 31 1950 1951 + 20 + 4 + + + + + 45 63 15 26 3 _T "l +13 + 2 — 12 + 6 + + + 19 42 29 + 3 — 2 — 2 Maryland Baltimore $ 2,710,080 270,175 Cumberland 35,625 Frederick Hagerstown 234,927 Salisbury 132,058 Virginia 522,943 Danville Lynchburg 38,486 Newport News 301,246 984,250 Norfolk Petersburg 195,223 Portsmouth 541,051 2,202,887 Richmond Roanoke 791,929 West Virginia 859,685 Charleston Clarksburg 180,142 Huntington 218,545 North Carolina 1,893,954 Asheville Charlotte 2,290,185 Durham 3,312,175 Greensboro 906,029 High Point 224,380 Raleigh 1,099,140 653,644 Rocky Mount Salisbury 92,720 W inston-Salem 892,566 South Carolina 279,524 Charleston Columbia 436,931 Greenville 620,350 Spartanburg 245,393 Dist. of Columbia Washington 6,873,875 District Totals $30,040,118 Number of reporting firms in parentheses. Source: Department of Commerce. R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E SA L E S Percentage comparison of sales in periods named with sales in same periods in 1950 STATES 9 Mos. 1951 Sept. 1951 — 5 Maryland (7) -------------------------------------- ----- — 14 — 1 Dist. of Col. (7) _____________________ ___ — 12 — 7 Virginia (18) ------------------------------------------ — 21 — 5 West Virginia (10) ---------------------------- ----- — 1 — 11 North Carolina (15) -------------------------- ----- — 23 — 13 South Carolina (6) --------------------------------- — 26 District (63) ___________________________ — 15 IN D IV ID U AL CITIES — 5 Baltimore (7) _________________________ ___ — 14 — 1 Washington, D. C. (7) ---------------------- ----- — 12 — 14 Richmond, Va. (6) ----------------------------------- — 27 — 5 Charleston, W . Va. (3) ---------------------------- + 4 — 21 Charlotte, N. C. (3) _________________ ___ — 40 Number of reporting firms in parentheses. Sales, Sept. ’51 vs. Sept. ’50 ... Sales, 9 Mos. ’51 vs. 9 Mos. ’50 Balt. — 4 + 4 +10 Wash., — 5 + 2 + 15 Other Dist. Cities Total — 4 — 4 + 3 + 2 + 14 + 12 — 35 — 39 — 39 — 29 25 45 43 39 38 14 15 18 20 17 D.C. — 5 + 2 $ 66,038,420 1,844,564 1,716,880 3,662,379 1,371,203 $ 64,997,420 923,900 1,676,991 3,251,676 1,551,231 362,382 186,470 65,507 1,401,475 262,738 240,427 5,594,540 1,196,165 2,327,821 2,497,615 1,324,953 20,240,971 2,812,712 4,837,522 22,068,708 14,058,856 2,723,578 5,477,600 1,403,101 11,709,878 4,732,869 3,510,946 23,610,366 14,010,801 520,217 58,800 642,511 4,938,960 1,029,121 6,990,702 10,953,498 1,347,548 6,007,267 214,957 1,520,440 1,563,921 4,534,232 829,236 398,600 192,875 110,250 451,769 6,066,034 17,321,835 7,003,163 6,857,247 2,667,359 9,942,699 3,280,075 1,008,698 13,216,243 3,650,492 22,550,853 13,943,867 13,780,974 , 3,763,530 12,913,365 3,568,338 2,583,987 9,403,751 149,567 804,165 906,290 141,100 1,384,839 10,408,935 8,221,679 2,260,408 2,260,130 8,299,967 9,402,364 4,698,925 5,743,654 $35,604,553 51,107,672 $298,508,273 53,686,886 $322,396,099 ADDITIONS TO PAR LIST Rich. — 4 + 6 + 4 Md. — 4 + 4 $ 6,521,315 99,500 39,820 569,190 282,440 The Peoples Bank, Randleman, North Carolina, a nonmember bank located in the territory served by the Charlotte Branch, has agreed to remit at par, effective October 15, for checks drawn on it when received from the Federal Reserve Bank. The combined A.B.A. trans it number-routing symbol of the bank is 66-424. D E P A R T M E N T ST O R E O P E R A T IO N S (Figures show percentage change) Sales, Sept. ’51 vs. Sept. ’50 .... Sales, 9 Mos. ’51 vs. 9 Mos. ’50 .. Stocks, Sept. 30, ’51 vs. ’50 —- Orders outstanding, Sept. 30, ’51 vs. ’50 _________ Current receivables Sept. 1 Collected in Sept. ’51 ________ Instalment receivables Sept. 1 collected in Sept. ’51 ________ 9 Months 1950 Va. W .V a . N.C. — 3 — 2 — 8 + 5 + 4 — 2 531 The Mount Vernon Bank and Trust Company, Jeffer son Manor, (F a irfa x County), Virginia, a newly char tered nonmember bank located in the territory served by the Richmond Head Office, has agreed to remit at par, effective October 18, for checks drawn on it when received from the Federal Reserve Bank. The combined A.B.A. transit number-routing symbol o f the bank is — 37 S.C. — 2 + 3 68 - 111 . 514 + 12 V