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MONTHLY
REVI EW
o f Financial and Business Conditions
F i f th
Federal
Reserve
Distr ic t
Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond 13, Va.
May 31, 1944
Business in April 1944
season average requirement. This will act essentially as
T H E farm production outlook as far as climatic factors
a ceiling on the top grades and leave the remainder of
are concerned is excellent. It is true that the season
the grades in a free market. The O P A says that the
is from a week to two weeks late, and that much tobacco
change in the ceiling price was not for the purpose o f
will be reset before corn is planted, a reversal o f the nor
mal process, but from a growth standpoint the season is increasing prices, but was the result o f a new system of
price control. Since no ceiling has been so far placed
excellent. A s far as can be ascertained, however, it ap
on flue-cured tobacco for the current season, it will be
pears the intended acreage will be planted even though in
interesting to see whether a similar ceiling arrangement
many instances the growers cannot now see how they will
be able to harvest the crops. Farm labor is
to that placed on Maryland tobacco will pre
vail in flue-cured markets.
shorter in this District this year than it was last
CTORY
year, with further inductions into the armed
A s regards the operating rate o f the Dis
forces highly probable. It is likely that some
trict’s manufacturing, mining and service in
arrangement can be worked out to utilize pris
dustries, incomplete evidence suggests that, in
the main, they are holding a fairly even keel
oners o f war as well as volunteers from cities
and towns during the harvest season.
at or near capacity levels, or on levels not far
Under the assumption that in one manner or
short o f the capacity that unseasoned workers
another the great bulk of the crops would be
can maintain. The development o f a sufficient
harvested, the current indications point to a
number o f trained workers in the District’s
further increase in the cash farm income of the District
shipyards is securing an output not far below the yards’
arising from prospective increases in the volume of pro
best levels despite the fact that considerably fewer work
ers are employed at the present time than a year ago.
duction and higher prices. Price increases so far are
running ahead o f last year from 6 per cent in South Caro
The cotton textile industry is in the most critical con
dition o f any o f the District’s industries. The 48-hour
lina to 42 per cent in Maryland.
A ceiling price of 52 cents a pound (season’s average
week became effective on the 15th day o f May, with most
basis) was originally set for Maryland tobacco, but short mill men contending that no increase in production could
be expected as a result. It is still too soon to be able to
ly after the auction markets opened on May 9th growers
refused to sell at prevailing prices and the ceiling was tell whether improvement in production is being effected,
then fixed at a flat figure o f 62 cents with no overall for no reports have been forthcoming as to whether work
B U SIN E SS IN D E X E S — F IF T H F E D E R A L R E SE R V E D IST R IC T
Average Daily 1935-39 — 100
Seasonally Adjusted
Apr.
1944
Bank Debits ........................... ....... ............. ........... . ............
Bituminous Coal Production*............................ ..... ..................
Building Contracts Awarded.................................... ..................
Building Permits Issued............... ......................... ...............
Cigarette Production .................
..............
Cotton Consumption* ................... .................... ..................
Department Store Sales ..........................................
Department Store Stocks ........................................
Electric Power Production . .......
Life Insurance Sales .....................
....
......... ..............
Wholesale Trade— Five Lines .......... .................... ..................
*Not seasonally adjusted
.........
Mar.
1944
Feb.
1944
Apr.
1943
212
152
122
23
153
151
205
146
129
19
167
161
186
192
149
143
23
168
143
198
202
145
100
21
167
155
212r
170
199
172
199
209
176
208
146
191
118
178
131
180
128
181
118
175
% Change
Apr. 1944 from
Apr. 43
Mar. 44
— 5
+3
4-43
+10
+1
— 8
— 7
-
1
0
— 10
—
1
— 6
+ 2
+11
+21
+1
+6
+16
+4
0
+2
— 11
MONTHLY REVIEW
2
ing forces are achieving a 48-hour week. Production con
tinued to recede in April when average daily cotton con
sumption declined 8 per cent from March and stood 11
per cent below a year ago and 17 per cent below the peak
made in April 1942.
It is o f interest to note that some Southern textile mills
have placed undated orders for new machinery. Thus the
much discussed competition o f synthetics has not operated
as a deterrent to the placement o f equipment orders.
However, a large part o f the machinery in the industry is
more than 20 years old, and the pace at which these ma
chines have been operated in the past three years has
accelerated the rate o f depreciation.
Ownership of Deposits
Demand deposits o f individuals, partnerships and cor
porations are estimated for all member banks in the Fifth
Federal Reserve District at $2,144 million on February
29, 1944, and this is an increase of $83 million, or 4.0
per cent, over the estimated level at which these deposits
stood on July 31, 1943.
A t the end o f July 1943 business organizations with
balances in excess o f $3,000 in the smaller banks and
$10,000 in the larger banks owned 50.5 per cent o f the
estimated $2,061 million of demand deposits of individ
uals, partnerships and corporations of Fifth District mem
ber banks, whereas on February 29, 1944 business or
ganizations’ proportion dropped to 47.8 per cent o f the
estimated $2,144 million of such deposits on that date.
Thus between the end o f July 1943 and the end o f Feb
ruary 1944, business organizations maintaining deposits
in Fifth District banks experienced a net decline in de
mand deposits o f individuals, partnerships and corpora
tions o f $16 million. However this reduction in business
deposits was confined to manufacturing and mining con
cerns and financial businesses. A ll other business organi
zations owned a slightly higher percentage o f the total
deposits o f individuals, etc., on February 29, 1944 than
on July 31, 1943, and the estimated deposits o f these
firms rose $54 million in this period.
In this period, July 31, 1943 to February 29, 1944, the
^Third and Fourth W ar Loans were floated, and in these
Loans investors other than individuals and mutual savings
banks, representing largely business organizations, pur
chased $891 million o f government securities. Thus the
withdrawal o f deposits to make payment for these secu
rities was largely offset by a return flow of funds as
payment on war contracts and through ordinary business
transactions.
There was no change in the proportion of the deposits
owned by non-profit associations on the two dates: 4.0
per cent o f the total demand deposits o f individuals, part
nerships and corporations in accounts o f more than $3,000
for small banks and $10,000 for larger banks being indi
cated for both dates. Personal deposits in accounts over
$3,000 and $10,000 including those of farmers, however,
accounted for 10.1 per cent o f the total demand deposits
o f individuals, partnerships and corporations on February
29, 1944, whereas these deposits accounted for 8.9 per
cent on July 31, 1943. Owing to the estimated increase
o f $83 million in total deposits o f individuals, partner
ships and corporations from July 1943 to February 1944,
the constant proportion o f ownership by non-profit asso
ciations resulted in an estimated increase o f $4 million in
this period. Larger total deposits and a higher percent
age owned by persons including farmers caused these de
posits to rise an estimated $32 million.
There was also some drift o f deposits into the unclassi
fied accounts below the minimums o f $3,000 for smaller
banks and below $10,000 for the larger banks. These un
classified accounts, which include an indeterminate pro
portion o f business deposits, hut probably dominated by
personal ownership, constituted 38.1 per cent o f the total
demand deposits o f individuals, partnerships and corpo
rations on February 29, 1944, compared with 36.6 per
cent on July 31, 1943. These deposits, unclassified as to
ownership, rose an estimated $63 million between July
31, 1943 and February 29, 1944, whereas all the classified
deposits, in accounts having more than $3,000 for some
banks and $10,000 for others, rose an estimated $20 mil
lion.
It is true that these shifts in deposit ownership are a
continuous process, and that changes in evidence between
the two dates under review will be o f significance only if
they are the beginning o f a trend that may continue for
some time.Future surveys will tell whether such is the
case. It would be extremely significant if the shift in
ownership from business organizations to individuals
shown in this survey was the beginning o f a trend in
that direction, for it could mean more liquid funds in the
hands o f those most likely to stimulate a consumer goods
price inflation shortly after the termination o f war. Fur
thermore, if such a shift in ownership were to continue
many business organizations might be forced to sell in
vestments, possibly to banks, or to seek new capital for
reconversion.
The facts are not clear as to why the shift occurred in
deposits away from manufacturing and financial business
firms, mainly to individuals and other business firms. It
could be that there was a heavier purchasing o f govern
ment securities relative to deposits built up by manufac
turing and financial business organizations before the
3rd W ar Loan Drive than in the case o f individuals and
other business firms and that those deposits were drawn
down in greater proportion. Unfortunately the data .are
given in a manner that does not permit clarification. The
shift may be due to an out movement o f funds from the
District, despite the increase o f deposits in this period,
which would probably affect manufacturing and financial
business accounts more than individual accounts, or small
lousiness accounts. Between July 31, 1943 and February
29, 1944 this District’s out movement o f funds amounted
to around $90 million. The gain in personal deposits and
the loss in business deposits between the deposit owner
ship survey dates could indicate a relatively larger increase
in individual incomes over expenditures than in the case
of manufacturing and financial corporations.
I f it is
assumed that the peak o f efficiency had been passed in
manufacturing, this explanation would be logically sup-
MONTHLY REVIEW
ported. Ceiling prices and rising costs would tend to shift
funds away from some business firms whose maximum
efficiency had peaked. On the other hand, ceiling prices
and a dearth o f purchasable consumer goods would have
a tendency to build deposit balances of individuals.
The accompanying table shows the estimated ownership
o f demand deposits o f individuals, partnerships and cor
porations on February 29, 1944 together with the shifts
that have taken place since July 31, 1943, for all member
banks of the Fifth Federal Reserve District.
ESTIMATED OWNERSHIP OF DEPOSITS OF
INDIVIDUALS, PARTNERSHIPS AND CORPORATIONS
IN ALL FIFTH DISTRICT MEMBER BANKS**
Estimated
February
29, 1944
.
%
of
Total
Change from
July 31, 1943
$ million
%
Business organizations— total .
1,025
47.8
— 16
— 1.5
Manufacturing and mining .
Other nonfinancial business
319
552
14.9
25.7
— 49
+ 54
— 13.3
10.8
Total nonfinancial business.
Financial business ...................
871
154
40.6
7.2
+ 5
—21
—
4.0
$ million
86
+
+
.6
12.0
216
10.1
+ 4
+ 32
+ 4.9
+ 17.4
Total classified accounts
Unclassified accounts ..
1,327
817
61.9
38.1
+ 63
+ 20
+
+
1.5
8.4
Total deposits
2,144
100.0
+
4.0
Nonprofit associations ........
Personal including farmers
The above estimates o f the ownership of demand de
posits of individuals, partnerships and corporations were
made from the reports o f 147 banks on February 29, 1944
and from those o f 133 banks on July 31, 1943. Member
banks reporting in the July 1943 survey had 69 per cent
o f all member bank deposits o f individuals, etc., on June
30, 1943,* while those member banks reporting on Feb
ruary 29, 1944 accounted for 74 per cent o f all member
bank deposits o f individuals, etc., on December 31, 1943.*
A representative sample was obtained for each deposit
size group from the ownership sample in both periods
with the exception of banks having deposits of individ
uals, etc., under one million dollars in the July 31, 1943
survey, as the following table sh ow s:
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS OF
INDIVIDUALS, PARTNERSHIPS AND CORPORATIONS
REPRESENTED BY MEMBER BANKS IN OWNERSHIP SURVEYS
Banks with deposits
(million dollars)
Over
— 50 .............................
— 50 .............................
25
— 25 .............................
10
— 10 .............................
5
2
— 5 .............................
— 2 .............................
1
Under — 1 ...................
All banks .................................
June 30
J943
Dec. 31
1943
91.8
91.9
69.4
54.5
52.4
11.4
1.3
69.0
100.0
100.0
72.7
56.9
37.5
19.7
22.2
74.1
Estimates of total demand deposits of individuals, etc.,
on July 31, 1943 and February 29, 1944 were made on
the basis of the percentage changes shown between June
30, 1943 and July 31, 1943 and between December 31,
1943 and February 29, 1944 in the banks’ deposits o f in
dividuals, etc., which reported in the two deposit surveys
by sizes o f banks. These percentage changes were then
* Call report, nearest date for all member banks.
**Four banks were admitted to membership and one withdrew between
July 31, 1943 and February 29, 1944. The 4 new member banks held
deposits of individuals, partnerships and corporations on Dec. 31, 1943
of $10,447,000 and the bank which withdrew its membership held such
deposits of $841,000 on June 30, 1943.
3
applied to all member banks' demand deposits o f individu
als, etc., in the various size groups o f banks. This gave
estimated total demand deposits o f individuals, etc., for all
member banks in the several size groups shown in the
above table.
The percentages o f ownership by several types o f own
ers (reported by the banks in the two surveys) were like
wise classified into the same size groups as shown in the
foregoing table. W ith the amounts o f deposits o f indi
viduals, etc., for each deposit size grouf) in hand for all
member banks the amounts o f deposits held by the several
broad groups o f owners were computed for the several
deposit size groups by multiplying the group totals o f all
member bank demand deposits of individuals, etc., by the
sample percentages o f ownership. The District figures
are the totals o f the seven groups and the District per
centages o f ownership were computed from these dollar
figures.
In this manner o f computation a more representative
set o f percentages o f ownership is obtained for the Dis
trict than if the dollar sample were aggregated and per
centages taken o f these figures. In addition £he shifts in
deposits between July 1943 and February 1944 by size o f
bank are disclosed, and this enables an individual bank to
check its position with respect to its group movement.
It is interesting to note, for example in the table which
follows, that banks with demand deposits o f individuals,
etc., in excess o f $50 million increased their total o f these
deposits from July 1943 to February 1944 by an amount
equal to the District's total increase, and while notable
increases were recorded by groups o f banks having de
posits o f $ l-$2 million, heavy losses were experienced by
those banks having $25-$40 million deposits as well as
those under $1 million. It is also o f interest to note that
all groups o f banks, except those having demand deposits
o f individuals, etc., between $1 and $5 million show losses
in deposits owned by manufacturing and mining concerns,
but that the heaviest losses occurred in those banks having
deposits o f $25-$50 million. These banks are for the
most part outside o f the District's largest cities.
The increase in demand deposits o f individuals, etc.,
between July 31, 1943 and February 29, 1944 owned by
‘ 'other nonfinancial business” came mainly in those banks
having such deposits in excess o f $50 million. In this
size group public utilities account for 55 per cent o f the
“ other nonfinancial business ownership", and retail and
wholesale trade account for 31 per cent on February 29,
1944. Small gains and losses in other nonfinancial busi
ness ownership in the other groups o f banks balanced each
other so that the $54 million gain shown in the banks with
deposits over $50 million equaled the change in the Dis
trict.
Financial businesses between July 31, 1943, and Febru
ary 29, 1944, lost demand deposits in four o f the size
groups and gained in one group, while in two groups these
deposits remained without change. These losses would
appear to be due at least in part to purchases o f govern
ment bonds in the intervening W ar Loans.
Personal deposits including those of farmers in classified
accounts increased $32 million for the District between
the two periods under review, with all deposit size groups
MONTHLY REVIEW
4
showing gains except the two groups of banks having de
mand deposits of individuals, etc., between $10 and $50
million. The bulk of the $32 million increase came in
banks having deposits of less than $5 million. Gains in
ownership o f the unclassified accounts, which are dominently personal, were notable in six of the deposit size
groups in the period under review. A sizable loss, how
ever, is shown in the ownership of unclassified accounts
for banks having deposits under $1 million while such
ownership in banks with deposits o f $25-$50 million
showed no change.
It is thus apparent that between July 31, 1943 and
February 29, 1944 there has been a fairly general shifting
of ownership o f business deposits to individual accounts,
though this has not been true for all groups o f banks in
the various deposit sizes. It is hoped that the regular
presentation of the trends in deposit ownership by size
of bank will prove to be o f material assistance to banks
of this District in appraising the prospects o f shifts in
their deposit accounts.
The shifts that have occurred in the ownership as well
as the total deposits of individuals, partnerships and cor
porations is shown in the accompanying table for all mem
ber banks of the Fifth District, with banks classified by
size of these deposits, between Julv 31, 1943 and Febru
ary 29, 1944.
Changes in the Ownership of Demand Deposits of Individuals, Partnerships and Corporations, as Estimated for all Member
Banks of The Fifth District between July 31, 1943 and February 29, 1944
(million dollars)
1-2
Over 50
25-50
10-25
5-10
2-5
Manufacturing and mining.........
Other nonfinancial business.......
— 12
+ 54
—28
— 6
— 8
+ 2
— 8
+ 2
_?
Total nonfinancial business...
Financial business ......................
+42
— 6
— 34
— 8
— 6
— 7
Total business ........................
Nonprofit associations ..............
Personal (incl. farmers)...........
+36
+ 4
+• 5
—42
+ 1
— 2
-1 3
— 5
—
1
Total classified accounts...........
Unclassified accounts .............
+45
+38
—43
0
— 19
+23
Total deposits
+ 83
— 43
Banks with deposits of :
......................
+ 4
All banks
— 3
+ 6
—49
+ 54
4
0
+ 4
0
— 3
+ 3
+ 3
0
—21
4
5
— 3
+ 7
+ 3
— 16
6
+ 1
+
0
+ 4
+ 5
_2
10
+ 9
+32
7
7
+~3
+15
+ 14
+12
+ 16
— 35
+20
+63
+ 19
+29
— 23
+83
1-2
Under 1
All banks
— 13.3
- 13.8
— 37.5
+ 42.9
+ 14
+ 4
Percentage
Under 1
+ 5
ige
Over 50
25-50
10-25
5-10
2-5
Manufacturing and mining........
Other nonfinancial business.........
— 8.2
+36.0
-35.9
— 7.4
— 13.8
21.1
+ 8.3
+ 6.3
- 3.3
Total nonfinancial business....
Financial business ........................
+ 14.2
— 9.0
—21.4
— 19.5
- 3.4
— 17.9
—
Total business .........
Nonprofit associations .................
Personal (incl. farmers).............
+ 9.9
+ 9.1
+ 7.8
—21.0
+ 16.7
— 7.4
- 6.1
-3 3 .3
— 3.4
—
Total classified accounts...............
Unclassified accounts ...........
+ 9.6
+24.7
— 18.5
0
- 7.4
+ 15.2
+
+
Total deposits ..............................
+ 13.3
— 13.0
+ 1.0
-
+ 1.7
4.7
+ 100.0
0
+ 10.8
0
— 27.3
+ 10.8
+ 150.0
+ 13.6
0
+
.6
— 12.0
4.0
— 2.9
+ 16.7
+ 17.9
+ 17.9
— 50.0
+ 83.3
+ 12.5
0
+128.6
— 1.5
+ 4.9
+17.4
+ 16.3
+ 27.3
+ 19.7
+ 36.4
— 35.7
+ 1.5
+ 8.4
+ 8.1
+ 23.0
— 17.6
+ 4.0
+ 100.0
+ 35.3
5.8
8.2
6.8
+ 2.2
Flue-Cured Tobacco in the Fifth Federal Reserve District
The tobacco known as flue-cured, bright leaf, or “ V ir
ginia” bright tobacco is one of the most important agri
cultural products of the Southeastern United States. Not
only is growing the leaf an important source o f farm in
come, but its farm sale and subsequent processing give
employment to large numbers o f non-agricultural persons
in the same region. Finally, this tobacco enters into most
non-cigar tobacco products, and is quite important in our
domestic and foreign trade. This article will attempt to
summarize briefly certain significant developments which
affect the flue-cured economy of the Southeast, and par
ticularly the Fifth District.
T
he
R
e latio n sh ips
T
obaccos
B
etween
and
T
he
F
F
l u e - C ured a n d
ift h
D
O
ther
istr ic t
During the crop-year 1942-43 tobacco farmers of the
United States produced and sold a crop whose value ex
ceeded one-half billion dollars; o f this value, almost 60
per cent was contributed bv flue-cured. During the same
season, more than 57 per cent o f the total tobacco acreage
of the country was devoted to flue-cured. Between 1934
and 1938, an annual average of 1,099 million pounds of
leaf tobacco entered world trade; about 319 million
pounds (or 29 per cent) of this was flue-cured from the
MONTHLY REVIEW
Southeastern United States. It is obvious that this crop
is o f more than local significance. Throughout the world,
this type o f tobacco is used as an important ingredient o f
almost every kind o f tobacco product. In this country,
flue-cured is the basic leaf in cigarettes and is quite impor
tant in the manufacture o f smoking and chewing tobacco.
Since the last three decades have witnessed an increasing
worldwide consumer demand for milder, lighter tobacco,
and since flue-cured admirably satisfied that demand, there
is little likelihood that it will lose it’s present position o f
leadership in the near future.
During the year beginning July 1, 1933, the United
States produced 73 per cent o f the reported world produc
tion o f this type o f tobacco,1 by 1940 this proportion had
dropped to 65 per cent. Thus, it should not be thought
that flue-cured is a monopoly o f this country. On the
contrary, it is produced on every continent of the world in
increasing amounts. W ithin the United States, the cul
ture of flue-cured has been confined to the South Atlantic
coast, embracing parts o f Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia,
Florida, and Alabama; however, less than 15 per cent o f
the entire crop, in any year since 1919, has been produced
outside the Fifth Federal Reserve District. The fluecured region usually is divided into four main belts, with
in each of which relative homogeneity o f leaf may be
found, but among which distinct differences o f leaf exist.
The Old Belt comprises much of the Piedmont of V ir
ginia and North Carolina, and the rather dark leaf pro
duced therein is usually referred to by its United States
type number ( 1 1 ) ; this belt is often divided into two
parts, the easternmost of which is called the Middle Belt.
The Eastern Belt takes in most of the North Carolina
Tidewater and extends very slightly into Virginia. The
leaf produced in this belt (U . S. type 12) is a very bright
lemon-yellow, is greatly in demand by British buyers, and
tends to bring the best prices in the market. The Border
Belt is also a Tidewater area, extending from North Caro
lina down almost across South Carolina, and produces
tobacco (U . S. type 13) which is quite similar to that
o f the Eastern Belt, but which usually prices slightly be
low that o f the Old Belt. U. S. Type 14 leaf, produced
in parts of Georgia, Florida and Olabama, is considered
by many to be the best leaf for domestic cigarettes, but is
sent to market in such “ trashy” condition2 as to bring the
lowest prices in most years. The accompanying map lo
cates these belts more exactly.
There is not space here to go into the details o f grow
ing, curing and marketing flue-cured. In general, the
plants are put out in specially prepared plots o f suitable
soil which have been heavily fertilized. Their culture re
quires the application of proportionately high amounts of
labor compared to most other crops (which labor, if paid
for at the going farmwage-rate, would make most fluecured production uneconomical at the prevailing price
1 The list o f reporting countries has been shortened, by the omission of
the Union of South Africa, to get a list which would be comparable
between 1939 and 1940.
2 Producers in the Georgia-Florida belt market their tobacco ungraded
and loose; there is much breakage of le a f; the trade defines this as
“ trashy.”
5
MAJOR FLUE-CURED TOBACCO BELTS
(CowprUWg tntir* cstMH** »Xhln ohteti fiu«-eiK*d
ruab*«nnpnrft)
LEGEND
PHI! OLD SELT (U.S.TYPE Il-q)
M i G O L E 3E L T ( U S . T Y P E I l - b )
j | j | | j | E A S T E R N B E L T ( U . S T Y P E 12)
p
j B O R D E R 9E L T ( U . S . T Y P E 13)
I 'fy G E O R G I A - F L O R I D A 8E U { U . S . T Y P E 14)
level3).
W hen ripe, the leaves are ipicked singly and
cured by the application o f heat, in specially constructed
curing-barns. A fter curing, leaf from the three North
ern belts is sorted and tied into small bunches or “ hands”
which are taken to market; Georgia-Florida leaf is mar
keted loose. Flue-cured is sold at auction, and the sale
proceeds quite rapidly, between 200 and 600 trays (con
taining up to 300 pounds o f leaf, each) may be sold in
an hour by one auctioneer. A s soon as the leaf is sold it
is removed from the floor, and the farmer can get his
money immediately from the warehouse, which periodi
cally settles with the buyers.
The relative degrees o f economic dependence on fluecured varies quite widely among the three producing
states o f the Fifth District. Between 1933 and 1943,
the approximate proportion that flue-cured farm value has
been o f the total cash farm income4 (from farm market
ings and Government payments) fluctuated between 9 and
15 per cent in Virginia, between 39 and 54 per cent in
North Carolina, and between 11 and 22 per cent in
3 Farm management studies of flue-cured farms indicate that a large
proportion, perhaps most, of the flue-cured producers would make more
money by hiring their labor out at the local farm-wage-rate.
1 The farm value of flue-cured is reported on a crop-year basis (year be
ginning July 1), while farm income is reported on a calendar-year basis.
These two are not strictly comparable; but, since most o f the flue-cured
crop is marketed between July 1 and December 31, the comparison of
flue-cured farm value, and total cash farm income is significant, par
ticularly when small variations in the proportions are ignored.
MONTHLY REVIEW
6
the last decade is used here. The series is broken into
two five-year groups at the end o f the crop-year 1937-38.
This year was chosen, rather than the following one, as
the final pre-war year because it was the very last which
could be considered free from the tensions which preceded
the invasion o f Poland, in September 1939. The first year
of this pre-war series, 1933-34, was also the first year of
direct Governmental intervention into the planning and
sale o f flue-cured. Table 1 shows the behavior o f acre
age harvested, total production, deflated prices, and de
flated total farm value o f Fifth District flue-cured during
the pre-war period. The rest o f this section will be de
voted to a summary o f the causes and significant results
o f this behavior.
South Carolina. Over the period, these proportions
tended to remain about the same in Virginia, to decrease
slightly in North Carolina, and to increase slightly in
South Carolina. W hile no effort will be made herein to
go into the higher stages o f the tobacco industry (above
the farm market) it might be stated in passing that the
sale, further processing, and manufacture o f flue-cured
supports a very large and important segment o f the Dis
trict’s non-agricultural economy, and that tobacco pro
ducts comprise an important part o f the consumer goods
sold in this country.
R
ecent
P re- W
T
ar
rends
W hile statistics on the production and sale of flue-cured
are available on a state basis for the period 1919-42, only
Table 1: Pre-War Behavior of Flue-Cured Production and Value Fifth District States, 1933-37
Year
beginning
July 1
Thousands of
Acres Harvested
Price in 1910-14
Cents per Pound*
Millions of
Pounds Produced
Va.
N. C.
S. C.
Va.
N. C.
S. C.
Va.
N. C.
S.C.
1933
1934
1935 ............
1936
1937
79.0
70.5
86.5
90.5
106.0
667.8
486.5
612.5
591.0
675.0
103.0
72.0
96.0
90.0
530.1
412.2
572.6
452.0
595.8
88.6
112.0
53.7
52.9
74.4
67.9
74.2
56.9
89.8
73.4
108.1
14.7
23.0
16.1
18.0
16.6
14.9
23.5
16.3
18.4
18.3
11.7
17.7
15.0
16.0
15.9
Av. 1933-37-
86.5
606.6
94.6
64.6
512.5
83.4
17.5
18.0
15.1
Total Crop Value
in Millions of
1910-14 Dollars*
Va.
N. C.
S.C.
79.2
96.7
93.2
83.0
109.2
10.3
92,3
12.6
7.9
12.2
12.0
12.2
12.3
11.3
10.1 '
13.5
11.8
17.2
Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture.
* Deflated by Index o f Prices Paid by Farmers for Commodities used in Production and Family Maintenance (1910-14—100). For price and crop value
in current (undeflated) dollars, see Table A, appended to this article.
deavored to restrict acreage o f flue-cured in order to
maintain a reasonable price-level.
During this period, the real price o f flue-cured (in terms
o f dollars o f constant purchasing power in the farmers’
market) fluctuated considerably, but their real income (in
terms o f the same constant dollars) moved gradually up
ward. In fact, from 1933 forward the total value o f
each flue-cured crop, in constant dollars, exceeded the
value o f the record-breaking crop o f 1919.
Generally speaking, this period was one of productive
expansion. The recovery from the depth o f the Depres
sion plus the aid of the Federal Government, raised prices
and generally stimulated producers. In spite o f the A A A
policy o f restriction, flue-cured acreage and production
immediately resumed its rise, and 1937-38 saw the largest
recorded crop up to that time. Within the Fifth District,
the behavior of production was similar to that o f total
flue-cured. Only in Virginia of the District’s States did
the 1937 crop fall slightly below any previous year.
From the mid-Twenties on, the production o f fluecured tended to outrun total demand slightly; expanding
domestic demand was offset to some degree by the gradual
loss o f foreign outlets, as other Nations strove for econ
omic self-sufficiency. The spectre o f overproduction has
been no stranger to tobacco producers, historically5; there
fore, since the failure o f the Tri-State Tobacco Growers’
Association, during the Twenties, Government interven
tion to restrict production had been the hope o f producers.
A fter emergency measures taken in 1933, the A A A en-
T
he
E ffects
of t h e
W
ar
Beginning with the crop year 1938-39, flue-cured pro
duction and sale began to feel the effects o f preparation
for war and war itself. During the first year o f this
period the effects were no doubt small and generally un
recognized, but the following year saw most foreign buy
ers withdraw from the market, inaugurating a period o f
uncertainty which stjll continues. Table 2 shows the
statistical series over the last five years for which data
are available, continuing Table 1.
Table 2: War-time Behavior of Flue-Cured Production and Value F[fth District States, 1938-42
Year
beginning
July 1
Thousands of
Acres Harvested
Millions of
Pounds Produced
Price in 1910-14
Cents per Pound*
Total Crop Value
in Millions of
1910-14 Dollars*
Va.
N. C.
S.C.
Va.
N. C.
S.C.
Va.
N. C.
S.C.
Va.
N. C.
S. C.
..................
..................
...................
...................
..................
101.0
134.0
73.0
73.0
82.0
603.5
843.0
498.0
488.0
539.0
104.0
142.0
85.0
81.0
90.0
71.7
107.2
67.2
64.2
77.9
509.5
812.6
516.9
452.9
566.9
98.8
133.5
87.6
69.7
96.8
17.6
12.1
14.3
23.7
27.5
18.4
12.6
13:6
22.3
25.7
18.0
12.1
12.0
18.9
24.3
12.7
12.9
9.6
15.2
21.4
93.8
102.4
70.3
101.0
145.7
17.8
16.1
10.5
13.2
23.6
Av. 1938-42......
92.6
594.3
100.4
77.6
571.8
97.3
18.5
18.0
16.7
14.4
102.6
16.2
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
Source: United States Department of Agriculture.
* Deflated by index of Prices Paid by Farmers for Commodities used in Production and Family Maintenance (1910-14=100).
value in current (undeflated) dollars, see table A, appended to this article.
; “ As a matter o f fact, from the earliest days of the colonists, over-produc
tion has been the one greatest menace to profitable tobacco culture.”
Yearbook of Agriculture, 1922, page 467.
For price and crop
7
MONTHLY REVIEW
The rising trend o f production observed during the
pre-war period continued through the crop year 1939-40,
at which time the largest crop in flue-cured history was
harvested. Since that year, lower availability o f labor
and general uncertainty has caused production to level
off. Although the A A A Program has been continued by
decision of the producers, it is possible that the need for
crop-restriction during the war has been reduced by the
external pressures o f shortages o f manpower, fertilizer,
etc. A comparison o f the five-year averages in the two
periods shows that there has been a sustained increase o f
production during the war. Although detailed state fig
ures are not yet available, the 1943-44 crop proved to be
larger than the 1941 crop, though smaller than last year’s.
Thus, while wartime stringencies may have prevented
otherwise contemplated expansions, they do not appear
to have curtailed production.
During the entire period from July 1938 to the pres
ent, the domestic demand for flue-cured (via increased
cigarette consumption) has grown at a phenomenal rate.
Anticipating increased cigarette production after the aging
period o f the leaf, manufacturers intensified their bidding
for the new crops. The general increase in consumer
purchasing power, and its partial restriction to unrationed
goods, has created a heavy demand for tobacco products,
and increased the optimism o f manufacturers. A t the
same time, the needs of our troops overseas and o f our
allies have held our export of leaf and tobacco products
far above what had been anticipated in 1939.
In an effort to prevent runaway farm prices, as a re
sult of the unusually heavy demand, the Government in
stituted price ceilings in all the markets during the Fall
o f 1942. In spite o f the ceilings, the average prices for
those years, expressed in terms o f constant-value dollars,
were higher than any previous prices, even those o f 1919.
A comparison o f the total farm value and prices for the
average pre-war and war years indicates that tobacco
farmers in the District are much better off at the present
than they were during the pre-war period.
A s the result of the wartime shortages on the supply
side, and the increase of consumer incomes on the de
mand side, manufacturers’ stocks of tobacco have been
reduced far below the usual level. The last authoritative
estimate of the size o f reserve stocks placed them at suf
ficient leaf for 22 month’s manufacture at current rates.0
W hen this is contrasted with the normal reserve o f ap
proximately 36 months supply, it is clear that the leaf
which is currently going into the manufacture o f ciga
rettes and other tobacco products has not been aged for
the same average period as leaf used in previous years.
However, it must not be thought that this means that the
stocks are being depleted to the danger point. On the
contrary, it is quite possible that any slackening o f warproduction within the next two years, by bringing about a
reduction in consumer-incomes, will reduce the unprecedentedly high demand for cigarettes and, thereby, bring
stocks more noramlly in line with the consumption o f leaf
through domestic manufactures. On the other hand, if
the future does see the continuation o f present high rates
« The Tobacco Situation (periodical of the U. S. Department of Agriculture,
Bureau of Agricultural Economics) January, 1944, page 8.
o f consumption, it is quite possible that farm production
o f flue-cured may rise to a level in excess even o f the
1939 crop without constituting overproduction. A t the
immediate present, according to recent press reports, the
manufacturers o f cigarettes are suffering from shortages
o f carton-materials and other supplies which are more
pressing than the short stocks o f tobacco and which may
soon cause a reduction in output; thus, it is quite possible
that continuation o f the present rates o f farm production
may soon see an easing in the leaf-reserve situation.
T
he
F
uture
Much o f the future prospect for flue-cured (within the
Fifth District as well as without) is tied up with the
particular situations to materialize after the cessation of
hostilities. This is particularly true o f the demands for
products which utilize this type o f tobacco. W hile there
is little likelihood that the post-war period will see great
changes in the general nature o f domestic consumer-tastes,
there is a definite possibility that it may see a decrease (at
least temporary) in the real level o f consumer-incomes,
and thereby in the level o f consumption-purchases. The
extent and duration of such a fall in general economic
activity depend on public and private policy and planning;
and are outside the scope o f this paper. However, this
is one o f the most crucial determinants o f the post-war
status of the more than 190,000 flue-cured producers. The
nature o f world trade, the level o f tariffs, and inter
national exchange situations will determine the extent to
which our pre-war exports o f flue-cured will be main
tained, curtailed or expanded. For the duration, there is
no reason to think that total demand will be reduced.
Before the outbreak o f war, a slow trend was apparent
toward the abandonment o f older and more depleted fields,
predominantly located in the Northern parts o f the Old
Belt, particularly in Virginia. It is probable that the war
has interrupted this trend because o f the higher returns
which have been forthcoming in the immediate past; but
there is no indication that it will be reversed in the post
war long run. In fact, if wartime intensity o f cultiva
tion and the lack o f fertilizers further deplete these fields,
it is probable that the trend will be accentuated and that
large areas o f the Virginia Old Belt will shift to other
land-uses. North Carolina is the center o f gravity o f fluecured production and the state in which the greatest single
part o f the leaf is produced. There is no obvious reason
for thinking that the production o f this crop will ever
cease to be concentrated within or close to the Fifth
District.
Since 1933, producers o f flue-cured have depended on
Government control and assistance, in one way or an
other, in the planning, production and sale o f their leaf.
It is unlikely that such governmental intervention will be
completely removed in the reasonably distant future. W ith
a history o f dangerous overproduction behind them, with
all its attendant sensitivity to any other adverse economic
forces, flue-cured producers will hardly be desirous o f
complete freedom from control, especially when it carries
MONTHLY REVIEW
8
with it the implication of loss o f assistance toward some
degree o f security. In fact, with wartime incomes at
the highest level in their history, and with prices pushing
hard against the ceilings, flue-cured producers voted (in
July, 1943) to continue acreage restrictions and marketing
quotas for another three-year period.
Flue-Cured Average Prices and Total Crop Value Fifth District States, 1933-42
Table A :
Year beginning
July 1
Flue-Cured Average Price
fcurrent cents ner nound'i
1933
.........................................
1934 ...........................................
1935 ...........................................
1936 ............................................
1937 ...........................................
1938 .............................................
1939 ............................................
1940 .............................................
1941 ............................................
1942** ........................................
Total Flue-Cured Crop Value
fmillions of current dollars^
Va.
N. C.
S. C.
Va.
N. C.
S. C.
15.9
28.1
20.1
22.3
21.7
21.7
14.6
17.5
31.0
41.8
16.1
28.6
20.3
22.8
24.0
22.7
15.2
16.6
29.2
39.1
12.6
21.6
18.8
19.9
20.8
22.2
14.6
14.6
24.8
37.0
8.5
14.9
15.0
15.1
16.1
15.6
15.7
11.8
19.9
32.6
85.5
118.0
116.4
102.9
143.1
115.4
123.9
85.8
132.3
221.5
11.2
12.3
16.9
14.6
22.5
21.9
19.5
12.8
17.3
35.8
Source: United States Department of Agriculture.
♦Prices paid for commodities used in Production and Family Maintenance (1910-14=100) for calendar year.
♦♦Preliminary.
✓
N ote: In deriving the deflated (constant-dollar) figures in Tables 1 and 2, price and crop value (in current dollars)
in order to correct for general changes in the purchasing-power o f farmers’ dollars.
Index of Prices
Paid by Farmers*
108
122
125
124
131
123
121
122
131
152
were multiplied by
B U SIN E SS IN D E X E S — F IF T H F E D E R A L R E SE R V E D IS T R IC T
Average Daily 1935-39=100— Seasonally Adjusted
Bank Debits .............................
Bituminous Coal Production*
Building Contracts Awarded
Building Permits Issued..........
Cigarette Production ..............
Cotton Consumption* ............
Department Store Sales ........
Department Store Stocks
Electric Power Production
Employment— Mfg. Industries* .
Furniture Orders ....................
Furniture Shipments ..............
Furniture Unfilled Orders .....
Life Insurance Sales ............
Wholesale Trade— Five Lines
Wholesale Trade— Drugs
Wholesale Trade— Dry Good
Wholesale Trade— Groceries
Wholesale Trade— Hardware
*Not seasonally adjusted
Mar.
1944
Feb.
1944
Jan.
1944
Mar.
1943
202
145
100
21
167
155
212
172
199
144p
168
157
526
131
180
204
155
190
118
212
152
122
23
153
151
209r
176
208
146
200
165
504
128
181
198
185
188
131
197
148
150
21
158
148
208
179
204
147
208
209
440
121
184
201
193
191
110
186
154
223
58
169
166
184
151
189
152
157
141
665
109
174
195
198
174
147
% Change
Mar. 1944 from
Feb. 44
Mar. 43
— 5
— 5
— 18
— 9
+ 9
+ 3
+ 1
— 2
— 4
— 1
— 16
— 5
+ 4
+ 2
— 1
+ 3
— 16
+ 1
— 10
+ 9
— 6
— 55
— 64
— 1
— 7
+15
+ 14
+ 5
— 5
+ 7
+11
— 21
+20
+ 3
+ 5
— 22
+ 9
—20
100
index
MONTHLY REVIEW
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND
DEBITS TO INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS
(All Figures in Thousands)
(000 omitted)
ITEMS
Total Gold Reserves .....................
Total Reserves ...........................
Bills Discounted ---------------.
Industrial Advances . . . . . .
Gov’t. Securities, Total ...............
Bonds ..........................................
Notes ............................................
Certificates .................................
Bills ..............................................
Total Bills & Securities .
Uncollected Items
Other Assets .
.
Total Assets
Fed. Reserve Notes in Cir.
Deposits, Total ...............................
Members’ Reserves ...................
17. S. Treas. Gen. Acc...............
Foreign ........................................
Deferred Availability Items ........
Other Liabilities ...........................
Capital Accounts ...........................
Total Liabilities
May 17
1944
$1,097,485
13,179
1,110,664
6,455
189
683,187
95,774
76,933
201,156
309,324
689,831
119,199
15,799
$1,935,493
Change in Amt. from
4-12-44
5-12-43
+
6,314
+ 52,684
— 29,899
— 2,505
— 23,585
+ 50,179
+
4,355
+
6,455
—
11
—
301
+ 367,728
— 7,351
— 20,470
—
762
—
346
+ 16,391
+
763
+ 132,521
+ 239,286
— 7,006
—
907
4-371,782
+ 15,036
— 5,281
+
1,678
+
2,355
+ 365,588
+ 45,659
$1,195,123
608,798
518,714
23,158
60,640
6,286
111,183
313
20,076
$1,935,493
+
+
—
+
+
—
+
—
+
+
20,232
18,883
2,105
15,768
5,651
431
6,394
102
252
45,659
+ 345,243
— 5,347
+
5,391
— 32,276
+ 27,031
— 5,494
+ 24,295
—
275
+
1,672
+ 365,588
41 REPORTING MEMBER BANKS— 5th DISTRICT
(All Figures in Thousands)
ITEMS
Total Loans ...................................
Bus. & Agric. Loans ................
Real Estate Loans ...................
All Other Loans .....................
Total Security Holdings ..............
U. S. Treas. Bills .....................
U. S. Treas. Certificates ........
U. S. Trtas. Notes .................
U. S. Gov. Bonds .....................
Obligations Gov. Guaranteed . .
Other Bonds, Stocks & Sec. .. .
Cash Items in Process of Col. . ..
Due from Banks .........................
Currency & Coin .........................
Reserve with F. R. Bank ............
Other Assets .................................
Total Assets ...................................
Total Demand Deposits .............
Deposits of Individuals ..........
Deposits of U. S. Gov...............
Deposits of State & Local Gov.
Deposits of Banks .....................
Certified & Officers’ Checks . . .
Total Time Deposits ................. Deposits of Individuals ..........
Other Time Deposits .............
Liabilities for Borrowed Money
All Other Liabilities .................
Capital Account
....
Total Liabilities
.........
May 17
1944
$ 261,165
115,815
.48,597
96,753
$1,307,516
74,582
239,801
237,945
679,764
18,443
56,981
$ 97,188
$ 36,932
$ 275,853
$ 61,257
$2,172,541
Change in Amt. from
4-12-44
5-12-43
— 8,933
— 3,012
— 8,224
—
472
—
695
— 2,875
—
14
+
335
— 28,519
4- 85,467
— 16,368
— 104,760
— 8,508
4- 32,833
3,226
4- 98,905
+
7,280
4- 96,705
—
75
— 28,268
486
— 9,948
+
8,624
4- 9,396
--- 11,366
— 47,966
--589
+
1,891
479
— 12,580
+
206
4503
-f
40,098
+ 33,699
$1,711,536
1,084,012
194,851
86,504
327,646
18,523
$ 262,015
246,203
15,812
1,500
$ 83,124
$ 114,366
$2,172,541
__ 55,809
+ 37,255
90,829
—
122
— 3,709
1,596
+
4,254
+
5,030
+
776
1,500
+
8,713
+
1,244
+
— 40,098
— 23,563
+ 120,645
— 75,702
— 5,613
— 64,609
+
1,716
+ 35,255
+ 35,075
+
180
500
+ 16,430
+
6,077
+ 33,699
*Net figures, reciprocal balance being eliminated.
MUTUAL SAVINGS BANK DEPOSITS
9 Baltimore Banks
Total
9
Deposits
_________
Apr. 30, 1944
$269,982,177
Mar. 31, 1944
$266,470,500
April
1944
% chg. from
4 Mos.
1944
Apr. 1943
Dist. of Columbia
Washington
.............
$ 472,387
Maryland
Baltimore ...................
689,726
12,039
Cumberland .............
Frederick ...................
11,971
Hagerstown ................
17,212
North Carolina
21,557
Asheville ...................
109,494
Charlotte ...................
56,599
Durham .....................
31,365
Greensboro .................
Kinston .....................
5,928
44,921
Raleigh .......................
34,990
W ilmington ...............
Wilson .......................
6,418
Winston-Salem ..........
52,028
South Carolina
36,461
Charleston .................
46,836
Columbia ...................
35,853
Greenville .................
Spartanburg .............
18,961
Virginia
Charlottesville ..........
14,059
Danville .....................
12,345
Lynchburg .................
19,975
Newport News ..........
24,772
115,636
Norfolk .....................
15,082
Portsmouth .................
Richmond .................
270,950
38,076
Roanoke .....................
West Virginia
21,332
Bluefield .....................
Charleston .................
76,446
Clarksburg .................
14,097
Huntington ...............
28,335
Parkersburg .............
14,542
District Totals ............ ___ $2,370,393
— 6
(7o chg.
from
4 Mos. ’ 43
— 8
$ 1,917,226
12
6
4
3
2,983,012
49,073
47,105
70,001
+ 4
— 5
+ 4
— 5
+ 10
— 26
— 12
— 15
— 22
90,982
471,689
223,703
136,297
26,137
213,651
145,431
29,598
247,060
+ 13
+ 4
+ 15
+ 9
4-16
+ 2
+ 3
+ 7
— 1
—
—
—
—
10
14
13
10
160,191
196,087
148,810
82,165
— i
+ 2
4-15
— 9
—
3
+ u
— 12
— 10
— 14
— 2
55,763
52,773
83,164
107,304
476,557
62,833
1,222,462
157,400
+ 27
+ 2
+ 11
+ 17
+ 2
+ 3
+ 11
+ 10
+ 4
— 11
+ 10
— 1
+ 8
— 10
90,241
316,015
58,690
116,776
62,249
$10,100,445
+ 19
+ 8
4-18
+ 10
+ 13
+ 8
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
10
19
20
21
COMMERCIAL FAILURES
Number of Failures
District U. S.
April
1944...............
0
131
1
96
March
1944...............
April
1943...............
0
362
4 Months 1944...............
6
479
19
1,652
4 Months 1943.............
Source:
Dun
Total Liabilities
District
U. S.
0
$ 3,524,000
$187,000
1,460,000
0
3,523,000
307,000
9,800,000
211,000
20,483,000
& Bradstrcet.
COTTON
CONSUMPTION
AND
April
1944
Fifth District States:
oCotton consumed ........
384,201
Cotton Growing States:
Cotton consumed ..........
681,253
Cotton on hand April 30 in
Consuming establishments 1,899,751
Storage & compresses . . 10,064,972
United States:
Cotton consumed ..........
776,007
Cotton on hand April 30 in
Consuming establishments 2.221,800
Storage & compresses . . 10,276,595
Spindles active ..........22,411,922
ON
HAND— BALES
April
1943
Aug.l to April 30
1944
1943
449,402
3,758,023
4,020,598
818,099
6,655,689
7,314,722
7,580,279
8,439,480
2,041,777
10,325,794
939,178
2,421,094
10,601,339
22,894,718
Apr. 30,1943
$238,963,910
RAYON YARN DATA
COTTON
CONSUMPTION—FIFTH
MONTHS
No. Carolina
April
1944..............
206,630
March
1044.............
244.204
April
1943.............
241,182
4 Months 1944..............
4 Months 1943.............
894,932
966,044
So. Caroling
158,656
186,184
186,071
681,942
736,523
DISTRICT
Virginia
18,915
20,596
,22,149
78,394
87,595
District
384,201
450,984
449,402
1,655,268
1,790,162
Rayon Yarn Shipments, Lbs. . .
Staple Fiber Shipments, Lbs. ..
Apr. 1944
43.700.000
11.300.000
Mar. 1944
45.600.000
14.900.000
Apr. 1943
41.500.000
13.200.000
Rayon Yarn Stocks, Lbs............
Staple Fiber Stocks, Lbs............
7.900.000
1.800.000
8,100,000
1,700,000
6,600,000
2,300,000
Source :
Rayon Organon.
MONTHLY REVIEW
10
BUILDING PERMIT FIGURES
RETAIL FURNITURE SALES
Fifth Federal Reserve District
Prcentage Changes in April and 4 Months 1944
Compared with
Compared with
April 1943
4 Months 1943
Maryland (6)* .....................
—6
— 5
Dist. of Columbia (6)* .......
—1
— 7
Virginia (24)* .....................
— 1
0
West Virginia (12)* .........
— 5
—
8
North Carolina (24)* .........
+ 4
+ 6
South Carolina (14)* ..........
— 18
—12
Fifth District (86)* ........
— 4
— 4
Total Valuation
April 1943
April 1944
Maryland
Baltimore ............
Cumberland
Frederick ..............
Hagerstown ........
Salisbury .............
Virginia
Danville ...............
Lynchburg ..........
Norfolk ...............
Petersburg ............
Portsmouth ..........
Richmond ............
Roanoke ...............
West Virginia
Charleston ............
Clarksburg ..........
Huntington ..........
North Carolina
Asheville .............
Charlotte ..............
Durham ...............
Greensboro ..........
High Point ..........
Raleigh .................
Rocky Mount
$ 354,816
3,310
760
51,685
19,366
$
676,932
6,448
5,390
8,115
24,725
..............
$
19,222
9,542
143,085
4,650
11,505
159,486
24,614
$
7,522
14,063
50,447
0
11,420
50,257
15,257
34,735
9,825
13,600
$
74,858
30,723
14,862
36,324
25,106
10,250
4,250
1,555
33,732
$
..............
.....................
Winston-Salem
South Carolina
Charleston ............
Columbia .............
Greenville ............
Spartanburg .....................
District of Columbia
District Totals
.....................
=.
$
$
..............
$
.....................
...................
...................
$ 866,405
$2,028,710
$6,556,340
31,669
7,380
3,650
27,745
31,148
3,033
18,200
INDIVIDUAL CITIES
Baltimore, Md. (6)* ..........
Washington, D. C. (6)* . . . .
Lynchburg, Va. (3)* ..........
Richmond, Va. (7)* .........
Charleston, W. Va. (4)* ...
Charlotte, N. C. (5)* .........
Wiston-Salem, N. C. (3)*
Columbia, S. C. (4)* ........
58,310
49,734
16,465
6,880
$
$ 548,049
$ 1,692,937
$15,422,380
% Chg. from
Mar.
% Chg. from
3 Mos.
1944
3 Mos. 1943
1944
Mar. 1943
— 25
$22,694,000
— 77
$ 3,598,000
— 32
6,198,000
— 28
3,091,000
— 58
— 55
SI,019,000
11,491,000
— 41
5,450,000
3,779,000
+ 58
—
60
—
54
10,094,000
3,839,000
— 39
9,052,000
1,440,000
— 68
— 48
$27,238,000
— 55
$84,507,000
—6
—1
—1
—2
— 5
— 7
+ 6
+ 5
— 15
+ 5
— 13
+ 14
+ 6
+ 13
— 7
— 9
♦Number of Stores.
12,917
14,990
1,030
5,466
9,511
11,98C
575
12,040
22,027
CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED
STATES
Maryland .................
Dist. of Columbia . .
Virginia ...................
West Virginia ........
North Carolina . . . .
South Carolina . . . .
Fifth District . . . .
STATES
DEPARTMENT STORE TRADE
Richmond
Baltimore
Washington
Other Cities
District
Percentage change in Apr. 1944 sales, compared with sales in Apr. 1943:
+ 8
— 6
— 5
+ 10
— 2
Change in 4 mos.’ sales in 1944, compared with 4 mos.’ sales in 1943:
+ 13
+ 4
— 2
+17
+ 4
Change in stocks on April 30, 1944, from stocks on April 30, 1943:
+ 16
+16
+ 15
+ 27
+ 16
Change in outstand’g orders Apr. 30, 1944, from orders on Apr. 30, 1943:
+ 5
+ 8
+ 5
+ 33
+ 7
Change in total receivables on Apr. 1, 1944, compared with Apr. 1, ’43:
+ 4
+ 5
— 6
+ 6
0
Percentage of current receivables as of Apr. 1, 1944, collected in April:
54(55)
54(57)
55(61)
57(61)
55(58)
Percentage of instalment receivables as of Apr. 1, ’44, collected in Apr.:
23(23)
30(33)
24(25)
32(29)
26(27)
Note:
1943 collection percentages in parentheses.
Maryland
Dist. of Col.
Virginia
W. Va.
N. Caro.
S. Caro.
Percentage change in April 1944 sales from April 1943 sales, by States:
— 5
— 5
+ 7
+ 4
+ 5
+ 9
Percentage chg. in 4 mos.’ sales 1944, compared with 4 mos.’ in 1943:
+ 4
— 2
+ 13
+10
+ 10
+ 11
Source: F. W. Dodge Corp.
TOBACCO MANUFACTURING
Smoking & chewing to
bacco (Thousands of lbs.)
Cigarettes (Thousands) ..
Cigars (Thousands) ..........
Snuff (Thousands of lbs.)..
April
1944
% chg. from
April 1943
3 Mos.
1944
% change
from
4 Mos/43
16,925
18,778,465
362,403
3,112
— 20
— 6
— 20
— 19
72,830
76,274,275
1,537,568
14,488
— 13
— 3
— 14
— 9
WHOLESALE TRADE, 246 FIRMS
Net Sales
Apr. 1944
compared with
Apr.
Mar.
1943
1944
+ 16
— 2
— 5
, + 9
Groceries (74)* ...................
+ 8
Hardware (15)* .................
+ 2
—
5
Industrial supplies (11)* .
+ 2
Paper & products (10)* .
Tobacco & products (14) .. — 3
Miscellaneous (87)* .......... — 9
— 2
District Average (246)*
Auto supplies (12)* ..........
Drugs & sundries (8)* . . . .
Dry goods (6)* .................
SOFT COAL PRODUCTION IN THOUSANDS OF TONS
REGIONS
West Virginia . . . .
Virginia ................
Maryland ..............
5th District . . . .
United States . . . .
% in District .. .
4 Mos.
April April
%
Change 1944
1944
1943
55,325
— 2
13,371 13,576
1,665
— 3
6,898
1,620
661
— 9
157
172
62,884
15,148 15,413
— 2
49,600 49,220
+ 1 210,645
30
31
31
4 Mos.
1943
54,111
6,772
649
61,532
202,269
30
%
Change
+ 2
+ 2
+ 2
+ 2
+ 4
Source: Department of Commerce.
♦Number of reporting firms.
+
4
— 5
+ 1
— 8
— 9
— 8
— 3
— 13
— 5
— 7
Stocks
Ratio April
Apr. 30, 1944
collections
compared with
to accts.
Apr. 30 Mar. 31 outstand’j
1944
April 1
1943
+
4
— *7
+ 18
+ 16
+ 9
— 15
+ 13
+ 7
+ 9
+
3
__
—
+
+
—
—
+
+
o
3
1
2
5
3
4
1
85
114
82
107
140
92
106
93
132
108
111
MONTHLY REVIEW
II
SUMMARY OF NATIONAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS
(Compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
Industrial production and employment at factories and
mines declined somewhat further in April, reflecting prin
cipally reduction in output o f metal industries. The num
ber o f industrial wage-earners was about 6 per cent or
800,000 less than in November 1943.
ments continued to decline from the exceptionally high
levels o f January and February. Ore loadings increased
sharply in April and were 60 per cent greater than a
year ago.
Industrial Production
Wholesale prices o f most commodities showed little
change from the middle o f April to the third week o f
May. Prices o f farm products and foods were slightly
lower, while maximum prices o f some industrial commodi
ties were raised.
The Board’s seasonally adjusted index o f output in
manufacturing and mining industries was at 240 per cent
o f the 1935-39 average in April, as compared with 242
in March and 245 in February.
Small declines in output o f metals and metal products
continued to account for most o f the decrease in indus
trial production. Electric steel production decreased further
in April to a level o f 5 per cent below the same month
last year. Production o f most nonferrous metals declined,
reflecting partly planned curtailments and partly the e f
fects o f labor shortages in mines and smelters. A further
curtailment o f aluminum production was announced in
May. Activity at plants producing munitions in the ma
chinery and transportation equipment industries declined
somewhat in April. Production under the farm machinery
program continued to increase and was reported at a rate
above the highest volume recorded in any peacetime year.
Output of nondurable manufactured goods showed little
change in April. Activity at cotton mills was maintained
at the level o f recent months, approximately 15 per cent
below the peak level o f April 1942. A s a measure to
increase production, a 48-hour work week was ordered
in the cotton textile industry, effective May 14.
The number of animals slaughtered continued at an
exceptionally high level in April, and effective May 3
most meat products were removed from rationing. Output
o f dairy products continued to rise seasonally and supplies
available for civilians increased.
Mineral production was maintained in large volume in
April. Production o f both bituminous and anthracite coal
for the year through May 6 was approximately 5 per cent
more than in the same period in 1943.
Crude petroleum production in April continued at a level
about 12 per cent above a year ago. Mine production o f
iron ore showed a large seasonal rise, reflecting the open
ing on April 10 o f the season for lake shipments.
Distribution
Department store sales declined in x\pril and, after al
lowance for usual seasonal changes, were about 10 per
cent below the high level which prevailed in the first quar
ter of this year. In the first half o f May sales were
maintained and were considerably larger than in the cor
responding period o f 1943.
Carloadings o f railroad freight in April and the first
half o f May were maintained in large volume. Grain ship
Commodity Prices
The cost o f living index advanced one-half per cent
from mid-March to mid-April, reflecting higher retail
prices for foods and furniture and increased excise taxes
effective April 1.
Bank Credit
From the end of the Fourth W ar Loan Drive in the
second week o f February through the middle o f May,
demand deposits of individuals and businesses at weekly
reporting banks increased by about 3 billion dollars. Time
deposits also increased appreciably. During the same pe
riod war loan accounts at reporting banks declined by
more than 6y2 billion dollars. Holdings o f U. S. Gov
ernment securities by these banks declined by about 2
billion dollars and loans contracted by more than iy 2
billion dollars. A large part o f the loan decline was the
liquidation o f credits extended during the war loan drive.
Loans to brokers and dealers are now less than they were
before the Fourth W ar Loan Drive and loans to others for
purchasing and carrying U. S. Government securities are
down to about pre-drive levels. During the same period
commercial loans also declined rapidly.
Sales o f U. S. Government securities by commercial
banks were paralleled by equivalent purchases by the Fed
eral Reserve System. System holdings are now about 2^2
billion dollars larger than they were at the end o f the
Fourth W ar Loan Drive. These purchases were made to
supply member banks with reserve funds needed to meet
a continued increase in currency and the growth in re
quired reserves which resulted from shifts o f deposits
from Treasury war-loan accounts to other accounts. Some
o f these needs have been met by a decline in excess re
serves. Sharp declines in excess reserves at the end o f
March and April were associated with unexpectedly large
tax receipts and the building up o f Treasury balances at
Reserve Banks. Currency in circulation, which increased
somewhat less rapidly during the first quarter o f 1944
than in the same period last year, renewed its rapid out
flow late in April and during early May. In the four
weeks ending May 17 the currency outflow was over 500
million dollars.
@FedFRASER