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MONTHLY REVIEW of Financial and Business Conditions M \ F ifth va. F ederal 3 IRichmond® o if 4 Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond 13, Va. — . R eserve D is trict March 31, 1947 Business Conditions ROSSCU RREN TS were noticeable in the economic developments of the Fifth Federal Reserve District in February with about an even break between losses and gains in seasonally adjusted indicators from January levels. Considering the adverse weather conditions over the entire District during February the small losses shown in those indicators that turned down should be considered a satisfactory situation. In many localities of the District January employment levels were lower than in December, but these reductions were mainly attributed to seasonal layoffs, shut-downs owing to the weather, or slackening in operations as a re sult of material shortages. In several areas increased employment and increased unemployment occurred at the same time. This was attributed to increases in the labor force arising from returned servicemen, high school gradu ations at mid-term, and to an increasing number of people 50 years and over reentering the labor market owing to the increase in the cost of living. In a few North Caro lina localities an occasional small textile mill had shut down, and several furniture factories engaged in uphol stered furniture production had temporarily closed. In dications in all cases were that these plants would be re opened by the middle o f April. In a few local areas, according to employers’ inten tions, the employment levels indicated for mid-April were about the same as in January, but for the great majority of local areas indicate an employment level from 2 to 5 per cent higher. This affords some basis for the view that as of January, employers’ intentions were to expand out put this spring. In most localities of the District there is a surplus of labor, but it is almost universally the fact that some employers have difficulty in meeting their labor requirements out of the local supply of labor available. In almost every locality reporting, there was a dearth of stenographers, typists, and other clerical help. Employ ment Service managers attributed this dearth to the rela tively low pay offered in these occupations, and the conse quent unwillingness of workers to train themselves for such work. The impression is obtained in covering the local labor market reports, that the employment situation, aside from C further demands for construction and other seasonal in dustries, has reached a point of stability. In consider able part, this is due to a very marked reduction in ab sentee and turnover rates, thus making it unnecessary to carry a float force to keep facilities manned. There were divergent trends in the construction figures between January and February. The building permits for the District on a seasonally adjusted basis rose 14 per cent in this period, whereas seasonally adjusted construction contracts awarded declined 21 per cent. Although the adjusted index of construction contract awards declined 21 per cent from January to February, the February level was higher than for any month prior to February 1946, excepting for the war years. Although building permit figures in the individual cities show a substantial degree of erratic change from month to month, the overall February figure as represented in the above index still points to a rising volume of housing. In practically every locality where a higher level of employ ment was indicated for the spring, it was noted that a major problem of recruiting the needed labor was finding a place for them to live. This tight housing condition not only applies to the larger cities but to almost every small town. This factor alone makes it difficult to be other than optimistic on the housing construction outlook despite the high costs. As a matter of fact, building material quoted prices have risen very little more than all manufactured products prices since the end of June 1946, and, further more, it was the general impression that the black market differential was much greater in building materials than in manufactured products in June 1946. As was mentioned last month, the important considera tion in determining the level of business activity in the months ahead is the level of demand, both domestic and foreign. January export figures for the country as a whole of $1096 million compares with the January 1946 total of $780 million, which indicates a high level of for eign demand. The domestic demand as far as it is indi cated by department store sales gives no cause as yet for alarm. It is true that February sales of the Fifth District deContinued on page 12 2 MONTHLY REVIEW MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT M AN U FAC TU RIN G EMPLOYM ENT United States FIFTH DJSTRIGT THOUSANDS 1939 1943 ---to t a l 1946 ------ 17,381 17,111 15,060 14,089 )urable Goods ....................... Iron & Steel & Products M achinery (incl. E lec.) . Transportation Equipm ent Lum ber & T im ber (basic) Furnit. & Fin. Lum ber Stone, Clay & Glass . . . . Other Durable Goods . - - 4,357 1,171 1,045 193' 435 385 349 749 10,294 2,034 2,499 2,951 589 429 422 1,370 10,201 2,015 2,520 2,899 569 413 395 1,390 8,298 1,786 2,200 1,797 562 396 381 1,176 6,917 1,589 1,958 600 652 450 451 1,217 Ton-durable Goods ........... T extile Mill Products . A pparel & Other Fin. Textiles................... ............ Leather P roducts ............. Food & Kindred Products Tobacco M fg s....................... P aper & A llied P rodu cts. P rinting & Publishing . Chemicals & A llied Products ......................... Other N on-durable Goods 5,719 1,235 7,084 1,330 6,912 1,228 6,763 1,173 7,174 1,301 894 383 1,192 105 320 561 1,080 378 1,418 103 389 549 1,055, 356 1,455 96 388 551 1,044 353 1,440 95 387 555 . 1,17.8 392 1,471 99 438 629 421 608 873 964 810 973 769 947 640 1,026 1944 1945 1946 J1 M anufacturing ............. fOOO 900 NON DURABLE GOODS 700 600 1945 ---- ---- (A ll Figures in Thousands) 1250 300 1944 ---- DURABLE GOODS 500 400 10,078 F ifth D istrict 1939 1943 300 (A ll Figures in Thousands) 874.4 1,305.0 1,236.5 1,123.3 1,099.4 265.8 urable Goods ........................... Iron & Steel & Products . . 56.8 13.0 M achinery (incl. E lec.) .. . T ransportation Equipm ent . 40.0 Lum ber & Tim ber ( b a s ic ). . 67.3 45.4 Furniture & Fin. Lum ber .. Stone, Clay & G lass. . ............. 37.4 Other Durable Goods ......... 5.9 541.5 82.8 53.4 190.2 94.6 53.1 43.5 23.9 504.4 87.4 50.6 161.2 86.3 50.7 41.9 26.3 429.7 ' 81.1 43,9 112.1 80.3 48.1 40.2 24.0 374.7 69.9 35.1 60.0 84.0 52.9 48.1 24.7 608.6 340.3 763.5 408.7 732.1 379.3 693.6 354.8 724.7 380.9 46.5 7.2 68.6 25.9 17.7 17.4 60.9 24.1 48.3 10.7 84.4 27.4 27.1 16.3 109.4 31.2 47.3 10.0 86.8 27.5 26.4 15.9 106.4 32.5 45.5 10.1 83.7 27.8 25.4 15.8 99.5 31.0 47.4 11.2 85.6 27.6 30,4 17.9 91.8 31.9 11 M anu factu ring 200 fTRANSPORTATION EQUIP. ................ Textile Mill Products ........... A pparel & Other Fin. Textiles ................................ Leather & Products ............. Food & Kindred P ro d u cts. . Tobacco M fgs. . ..................... Paper & A llied Products . . P rinting & Publishing . . , . Chemicals & A llied Products Other N on-durable Goods . - D istrict % o f Same Industry in U nited States 1939 11 M anufacturing / 20 4JULAJL 1943 1944 1945 IS4€ 1943 1944 1945 1946 ....................... 8.7 7.5 7.2 7.5 , 7.8 urable Goods . . ............................. Iron & Steel & Products ........... M achinery (incl. E lec.) ............. T ransportation Equipm ent . . . . Lum ber & Tim ber (basic) . . . . F urniture & Fin. Lum ber ......... Stone, Clay & Glass ................... Other Durable Goods ................. 6.1 4.9 1.2 20.7 14.5 11.8 10.7 .8 5.3 4.1 2.1 6.4 16.1 12.4 10.3 1.7 4.9 4.3 2.0 5.6 15.2 12.3 10.6 1.9 5.2 4.5 2.0 6.2 14,3 12.1 10.6 2.0 5.4 4.4 1.8 10.0 12.9 11.8 10.7 2.0 on-durable Goods ......................... T extile M ill Products ................. A pparel & Other Fin. Textiles Leather & P roducts ................... Food & Kindred Products ......... Tobacco M fg s .................................... Paper & A llied Products .......... P rin tin g & Publishing ............... Chemicals & A llied P ro d u cts. . Other N on-durable Goods ......... 10.6 27.6 5.2 1.9 5.8 24.7 5.5 3.1 14.5 4.0 10.8 30.7 4.5 2.8 6.0 26.6 7.0 3.0 12.5 3.2 10.6 30.9 4.5 2.8 6.0 28.6 6.8 2.9 13.1 3.3 10.3 30.2 4.4 2.9 5.8 29.3 6.6 2.8 12.9 3.3 10.1 29.3 4.0 2.9 5.8 27.9 6.9 2.8 14.3 3.1 3 MONTHLY REVIEW Manufacturing Employment The requirements of war wrought violent changes in the economic structure of the nation. None of these changes was of greater significance than the mobilization of the manpower resources on the jobs and in the locations where the munitions of war were fabricated. The gigantic task of raising an army and navy of more than 12 million men and women, and at the same time manning the industries needed to turn out the enormous quantities of war material, was an accomplishment of fairy-tale proportions. Its achievement, without even greater repercussions than those that occurred, was due in part to the existence of nearly 8.5 million unemployed people at the outset and to a substantial augmentation of the labor force from those not normally belonging to it. The labor force of the nation, according to the Census of 1940, totaled 52.8 million, of which 44.3 million were employed and 8.5 million unemployed. At the end of the war in July 1945, the labor force had risen to 67.5 million, of which 12.1 million were in the armed forces, 54.4 mil lion employed in civilian occupations, and 1.0 million un employed and largely shifting from one job to another. By July of 1946 (selected to eliminate seasonal factors) the labor force had contracted by nearly 5.0 million to 62.8, when 2.3 million were unemployed, again largely by choice, though in most local areas the skills of the unemployed rarely matched completely the requirements of employ ment opportunities. In December 1946, the labor force, though at a low seasonal level, totaled 60.3 million, of which 1.9 million were in the armed forces, 56.3 million employed, and 2.1 unemployed. Although 1940 figures and current data are not strictly comparable, the important point is that the labor force at the end of 1946 was in the neighborhood of 7.5 million higher than in 1940, while the number employed was around 12.0 million higher, and the 2 million odd unem ployed mostly voluntary. The labor force in the Fifth District (excluding the District of Columbia) in 1939 was 4,498,000 of which 3,916,000 were employed and 582,003 unemployed. The Monthly Labor Review, February, 1947, page v, shows that of the increase of 10,442,000 in civilian employ ment in non-agricultural establishments from the average for 1939 to December, 1946, nearly 48 per cent was ac counted for by an increase of 4,970,000 in manufacturing industries, as the accompanying table shows. In view of the indicated increases in employment levels and particularly the enhanced importance of manufactur ing employment it is intended here to show the manufac turing employment levels in the industries of the Fifth Federal Reserve District, their war-time distortions, the manner in which the District’s industries have fared rela tive to those in the nation, and manufacturing employment progress of the States. T M ining ................... ............ T ransportation & public utilities . . Finance, service & m iscellaneous. . . Governm ent2 .......................................... Change 15,048 819 1,642 3,977 8,610 5,260 5,439 4,970 — 26 - I ll 1,065 -T + 1,992 + 1,100 + 1,452 30,353 40,795 + 10,442 + 1 Includes workers em ployed by construction contractors and Federal forceaccount w orkers (non-m aintenance construction workers em ployed di rectly by the Federal Governm ent). Other force-a ccou n t and non-m ain tenance construction em ploym ent is included under m an ufacturing and other groups. Federal ll I n d u s t r ie s 1939-1943-1944 10,078 845 1,753 2,912 6,618 4,160 3,987 2 Federal, State and local governm ents, excluding construction. D ata The data for the Fifth District are the totals compiled by the Departments of Labor and Industry of Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, and South Caro lina in cooperation with the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. They are available monthly from January 1943, to date, and include both production workers and other em ployees. The figures for the United States are found in the February 1947, Monthly Labor Review, page 307, but 1946 figures are averages for the entire year rather than eight-month averages as shown. The employment figures for the Fifth District do not represent a universe for all industries presented, for the reason that individual State figures do not show employment for each industry sepa rately, only the more important industries. The figures, furthermore, are those reported by manufacturing indus tries and they do not include the employment of the Nor folk and Charleston Navy Yards. The percentages that individual industries make of national totals, therefore, should not be considered as the District's contribution to the national total, for the purpose is to appraise the extent to which the manufacturing industries of the Fifth District are maintaining the national pace, running ahead, or falling behind. No attempt was made to secure an industrial breakdown of the small number of manufacturing em ployees in the District of Columbia, and the total is not included in the Fifth District computations. Manufac turing employment for all States of the District is com plete for all industries, for textile mill products, food and kindred products, chemical and allied products, for stone, clay and glass products, and for durable and non-durable goods industries. All other industries exclude one or more States, but in the main the great bulk of the indi vidual industrial employment is represented in the figures given. A C IV IL IA N E M PLO Y M E N T IN N O N -A G R IC U L T U R A L E STA B LISH M E N TS (Thousands) 1939 av. Dec. 1946 he force-account Total manufacturing employment in the Fifth Federal Reserve District rose an average of 431 thousand or near ly 50 per cent from 1939 to 1943, but substantial as this increase was it did not equal the 73 per cent increase of all manufacturing industries in the nation in the same period, and the District’s proportion of the United States total fell from 8.7 per cent in 1939 to 7.5 per cent in 1943. The latter year was the peak year of war-time manufacturing employment in the Fifth District, as it was in the United States, but the national total in 1944 did not decline as much from 1943 as did the Fifth District total, and as a result the District’s percentage of the national total in 4 MONTHLY REVIEW 1944 receded to 7.2 per cent, compared with 7.5 per cent in 1943 and with 8.7 per cent in 1939. A ll I n d u s t r ie s 1944 to 1945 Three major industries (iron and steel, machinery, and transportation equipment) accounted for 81 per cent of the 2,051,000 average decline in United States manufac turing employment between 1944 and 1945. The decline in average employment 'of each of the individual industries located in the Fifth District was not greatly at variance on a percentage basis during this same period from the de cline of the same industries in the nation, but the impor tance of the three industries mentioned relative to total manufacturing employment was much smaller in the Dis trict than in the nation and this accounts for the smaller percentage decline in the District total manufacturing em ployment from 1944 to 1945 than in the nation. The Fifth District’s average employment level in 1945 was 1,123,500, a decrease of 113,200 from 1944, and of this decrease 55 per cent was caused by the iron and steel, machinery and transportation equipment industries, where as 81 per cent of the national decline of 2,051,000 was due to declines in these industries. A ll I n d u s t r ie s 1945 to 1946 Much the same forces were operating in 1946 as in 1945 to decrease the average manufacturing employment levels in this District as well as in the nation. The same three industries which accounted for the greater part of the decline in manufacturing employment from 1944 to 1945 were also responsible for the bulk of the decline from 1945 to 1946. In the main, most industries showed aver age employment increases from 1945 to 1946, but these were more than offset by decreases in the three mentioned industries, and in the chemical industry, as the process of terminating war production was drawn largely to a con clusion. There were differences in the rates of change in manu facturing employment from 1945 to 1946 in several in dustries of the Fifth District as compared with those in dustries nationally. For example, the average employ ment in machinery industries (electrical and other) in the District declined 20 per cent in this period, whereas it de clined but 11 per cent nationally. This greater drop in the District was due mainly to a termination of operations in war production facilities in North Carolina, which had employed nearly 8,000 workers in July, 1945. The trans portation industry’s average employment in the Fifth Dis trict decreased but 47 per cent, compared with a national decline of 67 per cent, a difference in part accounted for by an expansion in employment from levels reached just after the end o f the war by the Glenn L. Martin Company, while large aircraft establishments outside the District had shut-down completely. Shipbuilding employment in the District fell commensurately with that in the nation. The basic lumber and timber industry’s employment increased 5 per cent in the District from 1945 to 1946 and 16 per cent in the nation. If these figures are correct, a great deal can be inferred with respect to a substantial gain in the efficiency o f operation in the lumber industry in the Fifth District, for the output of lumber in the District rose 48 per cent from 1945 to 1946, whereas the national output rose only 26 per cent in this period. Em ployment increases in apparel and finished fabric indus tries in the Fifth District increased 4 per cent, while these industries nationally gained 13 per cent. These industries of the District are more heavily engaged in fabricating cotton goods which were in short supply, while similar industries outside the Fifth District were more heavily engaged in woolens which were in relatively greater sup ply. Paper and allied products employment increased 20 per cent in the District and 13 per cent in the United States. This larger gain in the District appears to be due mainly to new capacity as well as to an improved supply of available labor. A ll I n d u s t r ie s 1939-1946 Manufacturing employment levels in each of the listed industries of the Fifth District averaged higher in 1946 than in the last pre-war year, 1939. Total manufacturing employment increased 26 per cent in this period ; employ ment in durable goods industries rose 41 per cent; and employment in non-durable goods industries rose 22 per cent. Durable goods employment, which accounted for 30 per cent of the total manufacturing employment, in 1939, amounted to 34 per cent o f the total in 1946. Through the war years most of the non-durable goods industries had a downward trend in employment which continued until the fall of 1945, when most of these in dustries started on an upward trend that has continued ever since. Average manufacturing employment levels in the United States rose 40 per cent between 1939 and 1946, with em ployment in durable goods industries rising 59 per cent, and in non-durable goods industries 25 per cent. Durable goods industries accounted for 39 per cent of the total manufacturing employment in 1939 and 49 per cent in 1946. The Fifth District accounted for 8.7 per cent of the total manufacturing employment in the United States in 1939, and since the war-time increases in the District failed to gain as rapidly as the national level the District perentage fell to 7.5 per cent in 1943, fell further to 7.2 in 1944, recovered to 7:5 per cent in 1945, and recovered further to 7.8 per cent in 1946. The 1946 percentage, however, was still 0.9 per cent below the pre-war 1939 proportion. The chief factor responsible for the progres sive decline from 1939 to 1944 and the subsequent rise from 1944 to 1946 in the District’s percentage of the United States total manufacturing employment was the substantially greater importance of the durable goods in dustries in the nation than in the District, and the greater rise and fall in the employment of durable goods industries relative to non-durable goods industries. Durable goods industries of the District experienced average employment increases of 104 per cent from 1939 to 1943, while the United States rise in these industries in the same period was 136 per cent. Declines in these industries from 1943 to 1946 were 31 per cent in the District and 33 per cent in the nation. Although the District’s percentage of United States durable goods industries was a fraction higher in 1946 than in any war year, the 1946 percentage was lower than in 1939. MONTHLY REVIEW O f the 14 major industries for which employment fig ures are available, the Fifth District has shown for five industries, from 1939 to 1946, average increases greater than for those industries in the nation. The five in dustries referred to are: machinery, textile mill products, leather and products, tobacco manufactures, and paper and allied products. Six industries in which average em ployment levels in the Fifth District failed to increase as much as the United States totals for the same industries from 1939 to 1946 include: iron and steel, transportation equipment, lumber and timber, apparel and allied products, printing and publishing, and chemical and allied products. There were three industries in which the employment growth paralleled that of the same industries in the United States. They were: furniture and finished lumber prod ucts, stone, clay and glass products, and food and kindred products. T he D urable G oods I n d u s t r ie s Average employment in machinery industries (electrical and other) and transportation equipment of the Fifth Dis trict made the greatest percentage gains from 1939 to the 1943 peak year. The machinery industry of the District gained more than the national level for this industry in this period and held the position until 1946 after the shut down of North Carolina war plants producing electrical machinery. The District’s 1946 percentage of the national total, however, held at a higher level in 1946 than in 1939. This is due mainly to the peace-time operations of elec trical machinery plants in Baltimore built for war pro duction. The transportation equipment industry, excluding auto motive, in the Fifth District expanded its average employ ment 150,200 or 376 per cent from 1939 to 1943, but this did not include an expansion of around 37,000 at the Nor folk Navy Yard or a gain of around 23,000 at the Charles ton Navy Yard. If these figures are added to the 1939-43 change the percentage increase would be around 430 in stead of 376 shown for that part of the industry labeled manufacturing. Even the gain of 430 per cent does not compare, favorably with the national gain of 1530 per cent for the industry in the same period. As a result of the very large rise in the national employment of this industry in 1943 from a relatively low base in 1939, the Fifth Dis trict’s percentage of the national total declined from 20.7 per cent in 1939 to 6.4 per cent in 1943. The proportion did not vary greatly in 1944 or 1945, but rose to 10.0 per cent in 1946 or less than half the 1939 level. The trans portation equipment industry which accounted for 35 per cent of the 430,600 average employment increase in all Fifth District manufacturing industries from 1939 to 1943 failed by a wide margin to maintain the pace set by the transportation equipment industry in the nation through out the war period and in the first full peace-time post war year stood in a position half as important relative to the national total as in 1939. The iron and steel and products industry in the Fifth District reached its peak employment level in 1944, when an average of 87,400 workers were employed. This num ber of workers constituted 4.3 per cent of the national total for the industry, which compares with percentages of 4.1 in 1943 and 4.9 in 1939. Employment declined in both 1945 and 1946 to an average level in the latter year of 69,900, a decrease o f 17,500 or 20 per cent from the 1944 5 peak year. The employment level, however, in 1946 aver aged 13,100, or 23 per cent higher than in 1939, but at the 69,900 average level the District’s proportion of the United States total was 4.4 per cent, compared with 4.5 in 1945 and with 4.9 per cent in 1939. The lumber and timber basic products industry in the Fifth District had an average of 67,300 employees in 1939, and by 1943 the number had risen to 94,600, a gain of 27,300 or 41 per cent. The 1943 level of employment in the industry accounted for 16.1 per cent of the United States total, compared with 14.5 per cent in 1939. Both employment levels in the District and the percentages of national totals declined from 1943 through 1945. Em ployment in the industry of the District rose from 1945 to 1946 but the percentage of the national total continued to decline to 12.9 per cent. In the early stages of the war, when there was a surplus of labor and a large demand for lumber, the industry’s average employment levels in this District rose more rapidly than in the country as a whole, but selective service and wage rates, among the lowest in the District at that time, caused a drain on the manpower available for logging and lumbering. This was one of the industries in which the War Manpower Com mission had difficulty in maintaining an adequate labor force. Since in the main the lumber industry of this Dis trict consists of many small installations as contrasted with the large concerns on the West Coast, it is conceiv able that the employment samples of this District may be subject to greater error than those of the nation, and that later revisions may show the District to have a higher pro portion of the employees than is now indicated. Furniture and finished lumber products employment rose moderately from an average of 45,400 in 1939 to an average of 53,100 in 1943, and declined thereafter to an average of 48,100 in 1945. It recovered in 1946 to an average of 52,900, or a level near the 1943 peak year. The District’s percentage of the United States total rose from 11.8 per cent in 1939 to 12.4 per cent in 1943, held very close to this percentage in 1944 and 1945, and fell to 11.8 per cent in 1946, which left the employment level in 1946 at the percentage of 1939. The higher percentages in the war years than in the peace-time years was probably due to the conversion of important furniture factories outside this District to war production work. Such conversions did not take place in the furniture industry of this Dis trict. Although furniture factories in the Fifth District filled many war contracts, these contracts consisted of products that were readily made on the same machinery as furniture. The stone, clay and glass industries of the District em ployed an average of 37,400 in 1939. Owing to the loss of one of the principal markets for glass in automobiles the war-time peak year in the industry averaged only 6,100, or 16 per cent higher than the 1939 level. From the average level of 43,500 in 1943 the industry lost an average of 3,300 employees by 1945. In 1946, however, a new high record employment level was established which was 29 per cent higher than the 1939 level. The District’s average employment level relative to the industry nation ally was 10.7 per cent in 1939, and the same in 1946. A slightly lower percentage was shown in 1943, while 1944 and 1945 were very close to the level of the two peace time years. Thus the employment in these industries in MONTHLY REVIEW 6 the Fifth District each year reported from 1939 to 1946 approximately maintained the same pace as the entire in dustry in the nation. In summary, employment of each of the durable goods industries o f the Fifth District, with the exception of the machinery industries, accounted for smaller percentages of the national totals o f these industries in 1946 than in 1939, but in the aggregate durable goods industries have shown a progressively higher percentage each year since the 4.9 per cent low of 1944 to 5.2 per cent in 1945 and to 5.4 per cent in 1946. The 1939 percentage was 6.1 per cent. Durable goods industries accounted for a substantially larger share of the total manufacturing employment both in the District and in the nation during the war years than in peace-time years. Durable goods industries in 1946 were a moderately larger percentage of total manufactur ing employment in both District and nation than in 1939, as the following table shows: (% D U R A B L E GOODS E M PLO Y M E N T o f T otal M anu factu ring E m ploym ent) 1939 1943 1944 1945 1946 F ifth D istrict U nited States 30.4 41.5 40.8 38.3 34.1 43.3 59.2 59.6 55.1 49.1 These larger percentages of total manufacturing em ployment for durable goods production in the war years and in 1946 as compared with 1939 are probably due to the position of manufacturing industries in the business cycle. Despite the lack of efficiency in production in 1946, as compared with 1939, all except a nominal part of the labor force was employed and quantity production was more than 50 per cent larger than in 1939. It is normal when production is cyclically high that durable goods in dustries output and employment rise further than those of non-durable goods. N on-D urable G oods I n d u s t r ie s The non-durable goods manufacturing industries of the Fifth District increased their average employment levels 154,900, or 25 per cent, from 1939 to 1943. O f this in crease, textile mill products industries accounted for 68,400, or 44 per cent, while chemical and allied products industries accounted for 48,500, or 31 per cent. Non durable goods industries of the Fifth District which ac counted for 10.6 per cent of the total employment for these industries in the United States in 1939, accounted for 10.8 per cent in 1943, chiefly because of the better than national increase in the textile mill industries of this District. Average employment in non-durable goods industries in the Fifth District declined 69,900, or 9 per cent, from the peak year 1943 to 1945. in which all industries except tobacco shared, but the loss of 53,900 workers in textile mill products industries accounted for 90 per cent of the total. Non-durable goods industries of the District in creased average 1946 employment 31,100 over the 1945 level, of which textile mills accounted for 26,100, or 84 per cent o f the increase. The employment of non-durable goods industries of the Fifth District established their highest proportion of these industries in the nation in 1943 at 10.8 per cent. This percentage fell to 10.6 in 1944 and to 10.3 per cent in 1945, and to 10.1 per cent in 1946. The 1939 proportion was 10.6 per cent. While the non-durable industries of the Fifth District in the aggregate failed to maintain their percentage of the nation’s average employment level in 1946 as it had held in 1939, the textile mill, leather, tobac co, and paper industries increased their percentages in this period. Since the employment in durable goods industries ac counted for a larger percentage of the total manufacturing employment in the war years, and in 1946 than in 1939, in both the Fifth District and the United States, it follows that the non-durable goods industries in the same periods have shown lower percentages of total manufacturing employment. The percentages of total manufacturing employment represented by non-durable goods industries are shown as follow s: n o n -d u r a b l e g o o d s e m p l o y m e n t (P e r cent o f total m anufacturing: em ploym ent) 1939 1943 1944 1045 1946 F ifth D istrict U nited States 69.6 58.5 59.2 61.7 65.9 56.7 40.8 40.4 44.9 50.9 It is interesting to note that of the total employment in manufacturing industries of the Fifth District, the textile mill products, the largest employer, accounted for 39 per cent in both 1939 and 1946. The proportions were 31 per cent in 1943 and 1944 and 32 per cent in 1945. Textile mill products industries of the District in creased their average employment 68,400, or 20 per cent, between 1939 and 1943. These industries lost an average of 14,500 employees between 1943 and 1945 as a result of selective service, migration to higher-paying jobs, and a reduction in the labor force. Average employment of textile mill products industries in the District in 1946 was 380,900, a gain of 36,100 from 1945 and a gain of 40,600 over 1939 but 27,800 smaller than in the 1943 peak year. Textile mill products industries of the District increased their employment percentage of the entire industry of the country from 27.6 per cent in 1939 to 30.7 in 1943, to 30.9 in 1944. It dropped to 30.2 in 1945 and to 29.3 in 1946. The 1946 drop of nearly 1 per cent of the total was in part due to a slower return of discharged service men to textile industry employment in this District than elsewhere, and to a continued withdrawal of women from the labor force who were employed in war-time as a patriotic service or to supplement family allowances of service men. It appears that the drop in the District’s percentage of the industry from 1945 to 1946 was due mainly to a lack of manpower rather than to a permanent loss of position. The second largest employer in the Fifth District in 1946 was the chemical and allied products industry which includes the rayon yarn and staple fiber producing con cerns and several munitions plants of the District. Sec ond place was held by the chemical industry in 1946. In 1943, 1944, and 1945 it was held by the transportation equipment industry, and in 1939 it was held by the food and kindred products industry. Average employment levels in the chemical and allied products industries in 1946 was 91,800, which was 7,700, or 8 per cent, smaller than in 1945, and 17,600, or 16 per cent, smaller than in the 1943 peak year, but 30,900, or 51 7 MONTHLY REVIEW per cent larger than in the pre-war year 1939. Thus the shutdown of such war plants as Radford Ordnance, New River Ordnance, and the butadiene plant at Institute did not have very serious repercussions on the employment level of the chemical industry. O f the District’s 91,800 average employment in the industry for 1946, Virginia accounted for 38 per cent, West Virginia 26 per cent, and Maryland 22 per cent. The Carolinas together accounted for 14 per cent. The chemical and allied products industries of the Fifth District, despite the substantial increase in employment levels, did not quite maintain the pace of these industries in the country as a whole between 1939 and 1946. In 1939 these industries in the Fifth District accounted for 14.5 per cent of the national total while in 1946 they ac counted for 14.3 per cent. The percentages during the war years were smaller than in 1946 or 1939 owing to the larger concentration of ordnance outside the District. Another non-durable goods industry, or group of in dustries, namely, food and kindred products, ranked third in the average number employed in manufacturing indus tries o f the Fifth District in 1946. These industries gave average annual employment in 1946 to 85,600, a gain of 1,900 or 2 per cent over 1945 and a gain of 17,000 or 25 per cent over 1939. There was not much variation in the employment level of these industries in the District during the war years. Relative to the national totals for the food and kindred products industries, the average employment levels of the Fifth District have been about constant. In 1939, 1945, and 1946 the District’s percentage of national totals was 5.8; in 1943 and 1944 it was 6.0 per cent. The great bulk of the employment in these industries of the District is in Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. Apparel and other finished textile products industries of the Fifth District (with West Virginia excluded for lack of data) ranked fourth in employment among the non durable goods industries, and ninth among the fourteen major industries in 1946. In the period from 1939 to 1946 there wras an extreme variation in the average an nual employment of 2,800. Average employment in 1946 was 47,400; a gain of 1,900 or 4 per cent over 1945; a reduction o f 900 or 2 per cent from the peak year 1943; and a gain of 900 or 2 per cent over 1939. Contrary to some impressions that the apparel, etc. industries were gaining in this region, the District percentages of the na tional employment total for the industry show the reverse situation to be correct. In 1939 the Fifth District ac counted for 5.2 per cent of the national employment level for these industries; by 1946 the percentage had declined progressively to 4.0. The paper and allied products industries ranked fifth in employment among the non-durable goods industries of the Fifth District in 1946 and eleventh among the fourteen major groupings. West Virginia figures are not included in the total owing to lack of data. These industries gave employment to 30,400 people in 1946 which was the high est level for any of the years under review. The 1946 average employment level was 5,000 or 20 per cent above that of 1945 and 12,700 or 72 per cent above the 1939 level. These industries in the District have also gained relative to the national total. In 1939 the District ac counted for 5.5 per cent of the employment of these indus tries in the nation and 6.9 per cent in 1946. The 1946 percentage was the highest in the period under review except for the year 1943 when it was 7.0 per cent. Tobacco manufacturing employment figures are avail able for Virginia and North Carolina only. However, these states have the great bulk of the employees in this industry, the figures for which ranked twelfth in size among the fourteen major industries in 1946. Average annual employment of this industry in Virginia and North Carolina was 27,600 in 1946, a figure that had not varied more than 200 persons since 1943. The 1946 level, how ever, was 1,700 or 7 per cent higher than the 1939 level. Despite the relative stability of employment in the tobacco industry, the Fifth District gained relative to the national total employment level for the industry progressively from 1939 to 1945; and while the District proportion in 1946 of 27.8 per cent was lower than the 1945 percentage of 29.2 the 1946 proportion compares with 24.7 per cent in 1939. In each of the years from 1943 through 1946 the number employed in making cigarettes accounted for around threefourths of the total employees in tobacco manufacturing industries of the two states. T he S tates The states of the Fifth District did not show marked differences in their contribution to Fifth District manu facturing employment between 1939 and 1946. This, however, is a relatively short period and small shifts are not without significance. Maryland, West Virginia, and South Carolina made gains in their percentages of the District total at the expense of Virginia and North Caro lina. The chief increase in state contributions to the Dis trict’s manufacturing employment in the 1939-1946 period came in Maryland and resulted from a substantially larger percentage of the District’s durable goods employment in that state in 1946 than in 1939. North Carolina showed the greatest reduction in its contribution to Fifth District manufacturing employment, largely as a result of a lower percentage of the District’s non-durable goods employ ment in 1946 than in 1939. Relative to national employment in manufacturing in dustries every state in the Fifth District, except West Vir ginia, had a lower percentage in 1946 than in 1939. Mary land was the only state of the District whose total manu facturing employment showed a higher percentage of the United States total in any of the war years from 1943 through 1945 than in 1939. This again was due to the much larger rise in durable goods employment in the state during the war period than the non-durable goods employment. None of the Fifth District states in 1946 had as high a percentage of the national total of durable goods employ ment as in 1939, though Maryland alone had exceeded its 1939 percentage of the national total in each year from 1943 through 1945. O f the total employment in non-durable goods indus tries in the nation, Maryland and North Carolina had lower percentages in 1946 than in 1939, but all other Fifth District states had higher percentages. The accompanying table shows the percentages of total employment in manufacturing industries of the United States contributed by each state of the Fifth District, and similar proportions of employment in durable goods in dustries and non-durable goods industries. 8 MONTHLY REVIEW EM PLOYM ENT CONTRIBUTIO N OF FIFTH DISTRICT STATES PE R C E N T A G E OF A L L M A N U F A C T U R IN G IN D U STR IE S IN U. S. 1939 Maryland ...................................... 1.74 V irginia ...................................... 1.64 W est V i r g i n i a ................................... 89 North C arolina ......................... 3.03 South Carolina ......................... 1.38 Total ..........................................8.68 1943 2.01 1.34 .76 2.30 1.10 1944 1.88 1.29 .77.87 2.24 1.05 1945 1.78 1.34 .91 2.34 1.13 1946 1.64 1.43 2.54 1.28 7.51 7.23 7.46 7.80 PE R C E N T A G E OF D U R A B L E GOODS IN D U STR IE S IN U. S. Maryland .................................... 1.80 V irginia ...................................... 1.25 W est V irginia .|....................... 1.29 N orth Carolina .......................... 1.31 South Carolina ............................... 50 Total ...................................... 6.15 2.19 .88 .81 1.05 .33 1.97 .81.83 .80 1.05 .31.36 5.26 4.94 1.91 .92 .98 1.10 .45 .5.18 1.75 1.16 1.14 5.42 PE R C E N T A G E OF N O N -D U R A B L E GOODS IN D U STR IE S IN U. S. Maryland .................................... 1.68 V irginia ........................................ 1.92 W est V irginia ................................. 59 North Carolina ....................... 4.34 2.05 South C a r o lin a ........................... Total ....................................... 10.58 1.64 2.00 .70 4.12 2.22 10.78 1.65 1.99 .71.72 4.00 2.14 10.49 1.57 1.97 .66 .386 2.08 10.20 1.57 1.92 3.90 2.07 That the Fifth District had a larger proportion of the national employment in 1946 than in 1939 in five of the fourteen major industries under review, and a smaller proportion in six industries. The five indus tries where relative gains over national figures were shown included three industries which have been long established in the District, and two which are rela tively new comers, namely, electrical machinery and paper. Five of the six industries which failed to show a percentage of national employment levels as high in 1946 as in 1939 were also old established in dustries, while the chemical and allied products indus tries which also failed to maintain the national pace is in part at least a fairly new industry in the Dis trict. 10.12 C o n c l u s io n The findings in this study are: That average annual manufacturing employment in the Fifth Federal Reserve District did not rise by as great a percentage as the manufacturing employ ment level in the United States from 1939 to the peak year 1943; fell by a greater percentage from 1943 to 1944; fell by smaller percentage from 1944 through 1946; and constituted a smaller proportion of the na tional total in 1946 than in 1939. That the failure of the District’s total manufactur ing employment to maintain the national pace be tween 1939 and 1944, and to exceed the national pace between 1944 and 1946 was due mostly to the failure of the District's employment in durable goods indus tries to parallel the changes shown in those industries of the nation, and to the relatively lesser importance of the District’s durable goods employment relative to total manufacturing employment than is the case in the United States as a whole. That the Fifth District’s smaller percentage of the nation’s manufacturing employment in 1946 than in the last previous peace-time year 1939 is mainly due to a change in the relative position of the two years in the business cycle. Since the employment levels of durable goods industries rise faster and further from depression to prosperity and since 1946 was nearer to the prosperity phase of the cycle than 1939 than for non-durable goods, this factor is the chief cause of the Fifth District’s lower percentage of the United States manufacturing employment in 1946 than in 1939. Except for any changes in the efficiency of manufac turing operations in one region as against another, the employment figures of an industry will show the relative regional position of the industry in a satisfactory manner. Changes in the efficiency of operation arising as a result of the addition of new machinery which will turn out a larger output per man hour could conceivably be done in one sec tion of the country and not in another in which instance employment figures in one area would not truly represent an industry’s proportionate value added by manufacture. As a rule, however, the capital added by an industry does not occur in one geographical region and not another. The use of employment figures in many hetrogenous industries to determine the proportionate overall contri bution of one region to the national total will also fail to represent a region properly in its contribution to the value added by manufacture. Some industries have a larger value added per worker than others. In the main, employment figures give a working ap praisal of the regional shifts in industry. They are the best figures that are currently available, and for the Fifth District they show that manufacturing has not kept apace of the national total from 1939 to 1946. Study of the overall tendency in this period, however, indicates that this is due more to cyclical tendencies inherent in the durable goods industries, rather than to a real shift of manufacturing activity. Industry by industry study in the District shows that some have run ahead of the na tional total and some have fallen behind. 9 MONTHLY REVIEW Banking Due almost entirely to a substantial increase in hold ings of Treasury bills, the loans and investments of Fifth District weekly reporting member banks showed a sharp rise in the four weeks ended March 12. Loans increased by $4 million while total investments rose $43 million. The increase in loans brought the total to $482 million and occurred in spite of a decline in commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans. These loans, which have risen with but minor interruptions since V-J day, fell off in the week ended March 5 and recovered during the follow ing week to within $1 million of their level of February 12. Real estate loans increased by $2 million while “ other” loans— including instalment loans— rose by $3 mil lion to $103 million. Loans for purchasing or carrying securities showed no net change for the four-week period and loans to banks rose and then returned to their former level o f $1 million. Total investments increased to $1,442 million from $1,399 million of February 12. The increase was ac counted for by a $1 million increase in securities other than Governments and by a $51 million increase in holdings of Treasury bills; the latter is believed to be of a temporary nature. Portfolios o f Treasury notes, certificates of in debtedness, and United States bonds fell off slightly as may be seen from the table below. H O LD IN G S OP U . S. G O V E R N M EN T O B LIG A TIO N S W E E K L Y R E P O R T IN G M EM B E R B A N K S F ifth D istrict (M illions o f D ollars) DATE February March Bills 12................................16 19................................ 12 2 6 ......................... ...... 13 5 ................................ 66 12......................... ...... 67 C. o f I. N otes Bonds Total 179 178 178 174 177 88 86 85 84 84 1,028 1,030 1,029 1,022 1,025 1,311 1,306 1,305 1,346 1,353 Reserves of Fifth District member banks increased by $40 million to $733 million during the four weeks ended March 12. A mid-February loss of reserves due to the outflow o f funds on commercial and financial transactions and Treasury operations was oifset by an increase in Fed eral Reserve credit locally extended, principally through an expansion of float. A return flow of currency oc curred in that week, to be followed by increases in cur rency requirements in the succeeding weeks with conse quent losses of reserves. The week ended February 26 saw an increase in reserve funds of $19 million, brought about by an inflow of funds from commercial and finan cial transactions and from Treasury transactions, accom panied by an increase in Reserve bank credit. During the following week, commercial and financial transactions and Treasury transactions brought an inflow of $62 million, causing an increase in reserves of $21 million even after a decrease in Reserve bank credit of $31 million and a loss to increased currency circulation of $4 million. There was no change during the week ended March 12, as an ap proximate balance was struck between the gains occa sioned by Treasury transactions and the expansion of Fed eral Reserve credit and the losses on commercial and finan cial and currency transactions. As may be seen from the table below, the overall gain for the four-week period amounted to $40 million. F A C T O R S A F F E C T IN G M EM B E R B A N K R E S E R V E S F ifth D istrict Changes fo r 4 weeks Factors increasing ( + ) or ended M arch 12, 1927 decreasing (— ) reserves : (M illions o f dollars) Reserve bank credit extended locally Com m ercial and financial transactions Treasury transactions Currency transactions Other fa ctors + 13 — 16 -f* 49 — 3 — 3 Net change in reserve balances + 40 Fifth District member banks continued to lose deposits during February; the table below shows the average daily total deposits for the last half of February as compared with similar figures for the last half of January. It may be noted that Maryland, West Virginia, and North and South Caorlina lost deposits in varying degree while the District of Columbia and Virginia showed small increases over January. A V E R A G E D A IL Y T O T A L D E P O SIT S* OF M E M B E R B A N K S L ast h a lf o f January L ast h a lf o f February $ m illions % o f U . S. $ m illions % o f U. S. M aryland Reserve city banks Country banks D istrict o f Columbia Reserve city banks Country banks V irgin ia Reserve city banks Country banks W est V irgin ia N orth Carolina Reserve city banks Country banks South Carolina F ifth D istrict 1,011 644 367 896 875 21 1,300 296 1,004 542 838 364 474 426 5,013 .97 .62 .35 .86 .84 .02 1.24 .28 .96 .52 .80 .35 .45 .41 4.80 985 622 363 902 881 21 1,307 305 1,002 540 824 362 462 424 4,983 .95 .60 .35 .87 .85 .02 1.26 .29 .97 .52 .80 .35 .45 .41 4.82 ♦Excluding interbank demand deposits. Details m ay not add to totals due to rounding. ASSET S A N D L IA B IL IT IE S OF M E M B E R B A N K S F ifth Federal Reserve D istrict February 26, 1947 P relim inary (M illions o f D ollars) Reserve Change from city Other A ll Jan. 29, 1947 m em ber m em ber m ember all m ember ITEM S banks banks bank3 banks Assets ---------1. Loans and investments . . 1,986 2,373 4,359 + 3 a. Loans and d iscou n ts.. 521 651 1,172 + 17 b. U. S. Gov’ t obligations 1,376 1,580 2,957 — 15 c. Other securities ........... 89 141 231 + 1 2. Reserves, cash, and bank balances ............................ 685 748 1,433 + 47 a. Reserve with F. R. Bank 393 321 714 + 14 b. Cash in vault* ............. 43 85 128 — 1 c. Demand balances w ith banks in U. S................... 105 271 377 + 13 d. Other bank b a l a n c e s * ............. 3 3 + 1 e. Cash items in process o f collection ................... 143 68 211 + 20 3. Other assets* ..................... 33 35 69 + 3 4. Total assets* ................... 2,705 3,156 5,861 + 53 L iabilities and Capital 5. Gross demand deposits . . . 2,075 a. Deposits o f banks . . . . 332 b. W a r loan accounts . . . 72 c. Other demand deposits 1,671 6. Tim e deposits ................... 447 7. T O T A L DE PO SITS ......... 2,521 8. B orrow ings from F. R. Bank ..................... 14 9. Other liabilities* ............... 12 10. Total capital accounts* . . 157 11. T otal liabilities and capital accounts* ........... 2,705 * Estimated. Details m ay not add to totals due to 2,094 120 80 1,894 857 2,951 5,473 5 10 189 19 23 346 — 4 3,156 5,861 + 53 ro u n d in g . 4,169 452 152 3,565 1,304 + 43 + 25 + 17 + 9 + 52 . . . . + 4 10 MONTHLY REVIEW DEBITS TO IN D IV ID U A L A CC O U N TS FE D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF RICHM ON D (000 om itted) (A ll Figures in Thousands) ITEM S Total Gold R eserves.................................. Other Reserves ........................................ Total Reserves ........................................ . Bills Discounted ........................................ Industrial Advances ................................ Gov. Securities, T o ta l.............................. .. Bonds ....................................................... N otes ......................................................... Certificates .............................................. Bills ......................................................... T otal Bills & Securities.......................... . . U ncollected Items .................................... Other Assets .............................................. Total Assets .......................................... .. M arch 12 1947 $1,094,484 17,400 1,111,884 0 1,384,578 1,401,036 _ _ 2,743,604 Fed. Res. Notes in C ir............................. . .$1,712,495 Deposits, Total .......................................... . . 819,246 Mem bers’ Reserves .............................. , . 732,733 55,982 U. S. Treas. Gen. A cct ......................... 25,006 5,525 Other Deposits ...................................... 176,331 Def. A vailability Item s........................... Other Liabilities ...................................... Capital A ccounts .................................... Total Liabilities .................................. Chg. in A m t. from 3-■13-46 2- 12-47 + 32,590 4- 53,755 — 7,918 3,713 — + 28,877 + 45,837 — 10,550 + 12,128 39 0 — 29 13,862 + — 12,780 12 5,477 — 58,432 + 9,856 — 3,987 — 9,471 + 75,228 — 24,412 + 12,118 — 48,939 + 42,534 14,577 __ 19,068 — 59,051 + 81,421 34,900 2,743,604 — 11,271 32,572 39,819 10,310 659 + 2,404 + — 80,850 43 + 455 + — 59,051 + + 28,163 23,835 18,694 14,555 7,821 1,593 — 24,185 + 60 + 5,178 + + 81,421 + + + + — 41 R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S — 5th D IST RIC T (A ll Figures in Thousands) Chg. in A m t. from 3-13-46 2--12-47 5,283 + 79,095 + 1,217 + 74,938 1,904 + 30,888 + 4,596 — 26,731 + 411,501 + 42,750 8,662 4- 50,745 + 2,238 263,666 .., 176,563 3,467 — 117,190 84,135 — 3,626 — 53,392 . . . 1,024,762 — 3,054 3,203 + 18 + 86,164 + 1,318 + 11,031 1,616 + 24,292 151,675 — 135,207* + 15,393 — 10,584 Due from B an ks...................................... 8 313 — 41,101 + Currency & C oin .................................... 340,979 + 13,798 — 14,718 Reserve with F. R. B an k ..................... 4,615 2,145 — 76,316 + Other Assets ............................................ 338,039 Total Assets ............................................ + 78,066 ITEM S Total Loans ............................................ Bus. & A g r i.......................................... Real Estate L oa n s............................. A ll Other L o a n s .................................. Total Security H old in g s....................... ......................... U . S. Treasury Bills U. S. Treasury Certificates ............. U. S. Treasury Notes ......................... U. S. Gov. Bonds ................................ Obligations Gov. G uaranteed........ Other Bonds, Stocks & Sec............ M arch 12 1947 $ 483,532 .,. 253,045 82,009 148,478 . , . 1,441,958 Total Demand D eposits......................... , $2,013,398 Deposits o f Individuals ................... . , , 1,429,859 87,538 Deposits o f U. S. Gov......................... 92,357 Deposits o f State & Local G ov .. . . 374,645* 28,999 Certified & Officers’ C hecks............. 398,770 382,039 Deposits o f Individuals..................... 16,731 8,700 Liabilities fo r B orrow ed M on ey......... 149,300 , . . 2,670,768 76,239 63,976 13,017 — 6,904 + 10,355 4,205 — 1,705 + 2,003 + 298 — 8,000 — 7,026 + 1,096 + + 78,066 + + + — 381,917 + 71,374 418.453 + 10,498 — 46,920 1,584 + + 30,857 + 28,097 2,760 + 5,700 + — 3,407 + 10,728 338,039 Feb. 1947 D istrict o f Columbia W ashington ............. Maryland B a ltim o r e ,................. Cumberland ............ F rederick ................. H agerstow n ............. N orth Carolina A sheville ................... Charlotte ................. Durham ................... Greensboro ............. K inston ..................... R aleigh ..................... W ilm ington ............. W ilson ....................... W inston-Salem . . . . South Carolina Charleston ............... Columbia ................. Greenville ................. Spartanburg .......... V irginia Charlottesville ........ Danville ................... L ynchburg ............... N ew port News N orfolk ..................... Portsm outh ............. Richm ond ................. R oanoke ................... W est V irgin ia Bluefield ................... Charleston ............... Clarksburg ............. H untington ............. Parkersburg .......... $ 565,082 2 mos. 1947 % Chg. fro m 2 m os. *46 5 $1,253,502 787,772 18,075 13,997 21,451 + 5 + 14 + 17 + 20 1,724,797 38,647 32,351 46,852 + 11 + 13 +22 +22 40,098 179,205 81,544 56,320 12,056 88,309 28,716 12,359 105,461 + + + + + + + + + 21 32 8 19 35 55 2 43 32 87,350 397,784 186,875 122,067 28,171 180,771 63,585 30,682 234,583 +23 + 40 +21 +24 + 45 + 46 + 2 + 45 + 38 + 1 + 28 + 36 + 20 97,053 153,041 133,006 75,990 + 7 +26 +33 +28 17,681 22,339 29,731 24,767 143,175 16,575 373,664 61,437 — + + + + + + + 19 27 26 17 11 8 22 25 40,777 61,232 65,529 54,855 291,569 35,444 775,926 135,587 — 11 + 51 + 25 +20 + 12 + 8 + 1$ +26 32,241 103,464 22,853 41,795 21,650 + + + + + 26 16 18 14 31 65,949 219,869 51,776 91,205 47,402 +25 +20 +22 + 15 + 30 + 14 $6,824,227 + 17 44,371 74,262 61,682 36,241 $3,138,373 COTTON % Chg. from Feb. 1946 CO N SU M PT IO N AND F ebruary 1947 + ON + 8 HAND— BALES F ebruary A u g. 1 to Feb. 28 1946 1947 1946 F ifth D istrict S tates: Cotton consumed ............... 407,773 356,33-2 2,900,187 2,506,751 Cotton G row ing S tates: Cotton consumed ............... 736,810 657,219 5,298,125 4,554,212 Cotton on hand Feb. 28 in consum ing establishments 1,908,813 2,056,379 storage and compresses 4,218,304 9,270,145 United S tates: Cotton consumed ............... 840,463 747,748 6,044,326 5,152,778 Cotton on hand Feb. 28 in consum ing establishments 2,250,615 2,373,875 storage and com presses 4,282,547 9,402,082 Spindles active, U. S............... 21,954,340 21,238,750 COTTON C O N SU M PT IO N — F IF T H D IST R IC T (In Bales) M O NTH S N. Carolina S. Carolina F ebruary 1947............... 219,232 166,747 January 1947............... 245,033 189,301 February 1946............... 191,965 145,684 2 Months 1947............... 464,265 356,048 2 Months 1946............... 403,894 308,259 V a. 18,570 20,071 15,706 38,641 32,561 Md. 3,224 3,728 2,977 6,952 6,000 Dist. 407,773 458,183 356,332 865,906 750.714 ♦Net figures, reciprocal balances being eliminated. P R IC E S OF U N F IN IS H E D COTTON TEXTILES February 1947 C O M M ER C IA L F A IL U R E S N um ber Failures M O N TH S D istrict U.S. 238 February 1947............... ............7 January 1947............... ............ 5 202 February 1946............... ............2 92 2 Months 1947............. 12 440 2 Months 1946............. ............ 6 172 S ou rce: Dun & Bradstreet T otal Liabilities D istrict U.S. $207,000 $12,976,000 344,000 15,193,000 26,000 2,983,000 $551,000 $28,169,000 53,000 7,355,000 A verage, 17 con stru ction s. . ....................... Printcloths, average ( 6 ) . . . ....................... Sheetings, average ( 3 ) . . . . ....................... T w ill (1) ................................ ....................... D rills, average ( 4 ) ............... ....................... ....................... Ducks, average ( 2 ) ............. ....................... 85.42 111.29 75.66 71.10 65.90 97.61 62.54 January February 1947 1946 83.34 105.88 73.23 75.61 65.90 97.61 62.54 45.04 47.84 40.85 47.51 40.80 63.19 41.08 N o te : The above prices are those fo r the approxim ate quantities o f cloth obtainable fro m a pound o f cotton w ith adjustm ents fo r salable waste. n MONTHLY REVIEW DEPOSITS IN M U T U A L SAV IN G S B A N K 8 B altim ore Banks B U ILD IN G P E R M IT FIGU R ES Baltim ore ..................................................... Cumberland ................................................ Frederick ..................................................... Hagerstown ...................................... Salisbury ................................................ . . . V irginia Danville ..................... ................................... Lynchburg ........ ............................................ N orfolk ......................................................... Petersburg ........................................ .......... Portsmouth ........................................ .......... R ic h m o n d ....................................................... Roanoke ......................................................... W est V irgin ia Charleston ............... ............................. . . . . Clarksburg ............................................ .. .. H untington ....................................: . . . .. N orth Carolina Asheville ....................................................... Charlotte .......................................... ............ Durham ............................................ ............ Greensboro ................................................ High P oint ................................................... Raleigh ......................................................... Rocky M ount .............................................. Salisbury .......................................... .. W inston-Salem .......................................... South Carolina Charleston . . . . .................................. Columbia ....................................................... Greenville .......................................... .......... Spartanburg .............................................. Dist. o f Columbia W ashington ................................................ D istrict Totals ...................................... 2 Months ..................................................... T otal V aluation February 1947 February 1946 $ 3,630,010 $ 1,430,030 65,400 43,700 42,632 11,100 176,250 56,935 310,209 104,400 330,281 86,470 4,687,035 38,200 359,083 960,637 93,315 186,320 176,008 215,690 14,150 263,720 1,323,971 1,164,344 143,385 12,980 273,955 200,409 83,145 445,135 108,225 1,110,725 298,775 471,995 259,393 331,825 81,700 70,360 203,095 83,687 963,489 865,550 316.389 225.390 297,395 359,800 124,820 227,652 120,628 507,797 76,850 136,380 152,713 242,385 45,220 121,090 4,702,274 2,657,140 $17,111,528 $28,997,028 $14,980,113 $25,125,701 Total Deposits January 1946 $ 7,096,000 3,734,000 7,527,000 6,305,000 8,084,000 4,096,000 $36,842,000 January 1947 $21,149,000 9,160,000 14,763,000 . . 3,149,000 13,619,000 3,773,000 $65,613,000 STATE S M aryland (5 )* ......................... Dist. o f Columbia ( 6 ) * ........... V irginia (1 9)* ......................... W est V irgin ia (1 0 )* ............... North Carolina (1 4 )* ............. South Carolina (1 2 )* ............... F ifth D istrict (6 6 )* ............. Smoking & chewing tobacco (Thousands o f l b s .) ........... 14,473 Cigarettes (Thousands) . . . 26,338,485 Cigars (Thousands) ............. 446,042 Snuff (Thousands o f lbs.) . . 2,916 Feb. 28, 1946 $352,324,161 — 1 +11 —2 STATE S 2 Months 1947 31,162 54,789,252 956,306 6,350 % Chg. from 2 mos. ’ 46 — 2 +12 + 4 W H O L E SA L E T R A D E — 207 FIRM S Net Sales Stock Ratio Feb. Feb, 1947 Feb. 28, 1947 collections com pared with com pared with to acc’ ts Feb. Jan. Feb. 28 Jan. 31 outstand’g 1946 1947 1946 1947 Feb. 1 LIN ES Auto Supplies ( 8) * ................. . . Drugs & Sundries ( 1 2 )* ......... . . Dry Goods ( 5 ) * ......................... . . E lectrical Goods ( 6) * ............. . . Groceries (7 0)* ....................... . . H ardware ( 1 3 ) * ....................... . . Industrial Supplies ( 5) * ......... .. Paper & Products ( 7 ) * ........... . . Tobacco & Products ( 8) * . .. . . . M iscellaneous (7 3)* ............... . . D istrict Average ( 2 0 7 ) * . . . , + 38 + 5 + 13 +101 + 13 + 39 + 41 + 27 — 1 + 27 + 22 — — — + — — — — — 3 18 4 9 10 10 14 17 8 + 1 — 7 + 135 + 19 + 116 + 92 + 34 + 83 + 73 + + + + — + + + *67 + 50 + 57 + + 75 117 76 88 166 111 97 107 134 93 100 19 7 12 4 2 3 6 + '*5 2 4 S ource: Departm ent o f Comm erce *N um ber o f reporting firms. D E P A R T M E N T STORE T R A D E Richm ond i Percentage Changes in Feb. and 2 Mos. 1947 j Compared with Compared with 1 February 1946 2 Months 1946 + 14 + 8 — 3 — 1 + 12 + 15 + 15 + 12 + 25 + 34 + 12 + 2 + 9 + 11 Individual Cities Baltimore, Md., . ( 5 ) * ............... W ashington, D. C. ( 6 ) * . ........ Lynchburg, V a., ( 3 ) * ............... Richm ond, V a., ( 6) * ............... Charleston, W . Va. ( 3 ) * ......... Charlotte, N. C. ( 3 ) * . ............. Columbia, S. C. ( 4 ) * . . . / . . . . Jan. 31, 1947 $381,241,159 % Chg. February from 1947 Feb. 1946 % Change + 198 + 145 + 96 — 50 + 68 — 8 + 78 R E T A IL F U R N IT U R E S A L E S Feb. 28, 1947 $382,907,799 TOBACCO M A N U F A C T U R IN G , U N ITED CON STRU CTIO N CON TRACTS A W A R D E D STATES Maryland ........................................ Dist. o f C olum bia........ .............. V irgin ia ........................................ W est V irginia ......................... N orth Carolina ........................... South Carolina ..................... F ifth D istrict . . . . . . . . . . . . . S o u rce: F. W . Dodge Corp. . Percentage + 7 P ercentage + 14 Percentage + 91 Percentage — 36 Percentage + 63 Percentage 42 P ercentage 23 Baltimore W ashington Other Cities D istrict change in Feb. 1947 sales, com pared with sales in Feb. 1946 — 1 — 5 o — 1 chg. in 2 m onths sales 1947, com pared with 2 m onths in ’ 46 + 5 0 -f- 7 + 5 chg. in stocks on Feb. 28, ’ 47, com pared with Feb. 28, ’ 46 +41 +47 +63 +53 chg. in outstanding orders Feb. 28, ’ 47 from Feb. 28, ’ 46 — 34 — 41 — 28 — 37 chg. in receivables Feb. 28, ’ 47 from those on Feb. 28, ’ 46 +40 +55 +41 +50 o f current receivables as o f Feb. 1, ’ 47 collected in Feb. 50 44 50 46 o f instalm ent receivables as o f Feb. 1, ’ 47, collected in Feb. 29 22 28 25 i + 8 + + — + + 14 13 21 20 5 + — + + — + + 14 1 10 24 17 39 14 Maryland Dist. o f Col. V irgin ia W . V irgin ia N o. Carolina So. Carolina Percentage chg. in Feb. 1947 sales from Feb. 1946 sales, by states: — 1 — 5 + 3 —- 3 + 5 — 3 P ercentage change in 2 m onths 1947 sales from 2 m onths 1946 sales: + 5 ~ 0 +11 + 5 + 9 — i ♦Number o f reporting stores R A Y O N Y A R N : D A T A , U N ITE D S TA TE S SOFT COAL P R O D U C T IO N IN TH O U SAN D S OF TON S February 1947 February 1946 Rayon Yarn Shipments, L b s .. . Staple Fiber Shipments, L b s .. . 55.700.000 14.600.000 50.400.000 13.200.000 Rayon Y arn Stocks, Lbs............ Staple Fiber Stocks, L bs.......... 6.900.000 2.400.000 9,900,000 4,000,000 S o u rce: Rayon Organon Feb. R EGION S 1947 W est V irgin ia ...... . . 13,224 V irginia ................... ........ 1,586 M aryland ................. 204 F ifth District . . . ........ 15,014 United States . . . 50,640 % in D istrict. . . . , . . 29.6 Feb. 1946 12,945 1,615 185 14,745 49,975 29.5 % Chg. + — + + + 2 2 10 2 1 2 mos. 1947 26,274 3,186 398 29,858 109,509 27.3 2 mos. 1946 26,870 3,290 390 30,550 104,050 29.4 % Chg. — 2 — 3 + 2 — 2 + 5 12 MONTHLY REVIEW BUSINESS IN DEXES—FIFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Average Daily 1935-39=:100—Seasonally Adjusted Feb. 1947 Bank Debits ................................. Bituminous Coal Production*.... Building Contracts Awarded...... Building Permits Issued............ Business Failures (number)...... Cigarette Production .................. Cotton Consumption* ............ Department Store Sales ............ Department Store Stocks............ Electric Power Production........ Employment— Mfg. Industries* Furniture Sales— Retail .............. Life Insurance Sales.................... Wholesale Trade: Automotive Supplies** ........... Drugs ......................................... Dry Goods ................................ Electrical Goods** .................. Groceries .................................. Hardware ................................. Industrial Supplies** .............. Paper and Its Products**...... Tobacco and Its Products**... Jan. 1947 % Change Feb. 1947 from Jan. 47 Feb. 46 Dec. 1946 Feb. 1946 281 136 266 195 4 220 154 293 319 213 134 261 209 250 158 260 215 4 238 138 282 201 196 122 219 221 -J+ — + -f + — — — 238 247 278 149r 304 216 9 241 r 160 291 r 312 235 134 263 238 345 236 153 80 271 113 242 150 123 331 248 148 77 267 121 289 155 132 272 252 193 70 274 119 268 178 125 260 255 152 41 248 98 165 141 117 291 159 239 246 14 266p 158 281 306 5 7 21 14 56 io 1 3 2 + 16 4- 1 — 8 4- 14 4-250 4* 12 4- 14 — 10 + 4 4 -9 + 12 4- 4 5 4- 3 4- 4 4* 1 — 7 — 16 — 3 — 7 4* — + 4+ + 444- + 52 33 7 1 95 9 15 47 6 5 *Not seasonally adjusted **1938-41=100 Business Conditions (Continued from page 1) clined 3 per cent from January on a seasonally adjusted basis, and were at the same level as a year ago. But the Fifth District sales ran well ahead of the nation during the war years, and are still at a higher level relative to the prewar base than the national level. The factors which caused the inordinate gain in the District have been eliminated, and the rest of the country has been catching up to the District level for about a year. Sales of department stores are not maintaining the pace of total retail trade as indicated by Department of Com merce figures, although the homefurnishings and piece goods departments and basement sales were still showing good year to year increases in January. Soft goods sales of department stores are holding close to last year’s levels, which, if maintained, would give a high sales volume. There are divergent notions as to the amount of unit sales of these goods owing to the rise noted in wholesale prices, but it is the general impression that unit sales are smaller than a year ago, and this is taken as an indication that prevailing production levels cannot be maintained. This seems to be a correct appraisal unless prices adjust downward so that the supply o f goods and the demand for them be brought in balance. An official of one of the large chain stores has stated that prices of one-fourth of the 7500 items handled were lower as of the turn of March than on December 1, which suggests at least a pos sibility that the downward price adjustment may occur without reducing production levels. As far as the products produced in the Fifth District are concerned, there is no indication that a let down in production would occur before August unless widespread cancellations of orders on hand occur. The cotton textile industry is sold up through the middle of the year, and around a fifth of the third quarter output is under con tract. There are no indications of price weakness, de spite the fact that further selling for third and fourth quarter delivery has slowed down since the middle of March. Raw cotton prices are strong and the acreage outlook does not promise any increase in supply that can not be absorbed. Export demand for cotton goods is heavy. January shipments of 87 million square yards were 13 million square yards below December, but 24 mil lion square yards higher than January 1946. The lumber industry of the District is making marked headway, (Feb ruary excepted on account of weather) and even if de mand for lumber were to fall at the consumer level, pro duction could continue upward during the year to fill out yard stocks. Colder than normal weather has prevented any accumulation of bituminous coal stocks, and it would take a very substantial reduction in industrial production levels to lower the demand for coal this year. Nylon yarn shipments to hosiery mills have been cut back owing to production difficulties, and this will adversely affect some hosiery mill operations. The rayon industry seems likely to run at levels as near capacity as materials permit. Although business failures in the District were still at an extremely low level in February, they were consider ably higher in number than in any recent month. This seems to be a reflection of inexperience among the many new firms formed within the last year, rather than an indi cation of conditions pointing to financial stringency.
@FedFRASER