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MONTHLY REVI EW o f Financial and Business Conditions F i f th F ederal Reserve Distr ic t Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond 13, Va. TWTARCH has been unseasonably warm in the Fifth District area, and as a consequence has advanced the budding o f fruit trees. Chances are less than even that the last killing frost has been seen this season, and it is therefore probable that the District’s fruit crops will be smaller this year than last year. Although income from fruit crops accounts for only a small part o f the District’s farm income, it is nevertheless all important in several areas. In 1944 fruit crops yielded over $64 million in come to the District’s growers compared with $34 million in 1943, and $36 million in 1942. Farm preparations for the coming season are somewhat belated. Ordinarily at this time o f the year this would not be o f great concern and would probably be made up later on. W ith existing short manpower supplies, however, a lick missed at any stage o f this season will most likely never be struck. Favorable cli matic conditions and maximum efforts on the part o f farmers have combined to produce yields per acre well above those customary in this District for the past several years. The chances o f maintaining both indefinitely should not be expected. Cash farm income from crops, which has accounted for a little under two-thirds o f total cash farm income in re cent years, approached the billion dollar mark last year to set a new high record. The $954,586,000 crop income in 1944 was $218,181,000, or 30 per cent, higher than in 1943, with cotton and tobacco accounting for $185,501,000, or 85 per cent, o f the increase. It is permissible under the acreage allotment plan to increase tobacco acreage considerably this year, but it is doubtful whether there will be enough workers on hand to plant full allotments. March 31, 1945 Tobacco farmers have expressed their intentions o f in creasing acreage from two to three per cent, but even this amount may not be accomplished without slightling other crops. The dearth o f farm labor and its high cost, together with the relatively low price o f cotton, appears to be hav ing its effect on the coming cotton crop. Cotton acreage intentions for the Nation, according to the New Y ork Journal o f Commerce, point to 7.2 per cent fewer acres this year than were planted last year, with indications that North Carolina acreage will be reduced 9.8 per cent and that o f South Carolina reduced 9.4 per cent. Early preparation for cotton planting has been delayed as much as two to three weeks. Fur thermore, a mild winter such as has just passed is conducive to large boll-weavil emergence. Reduced acreage, higher boll weavil activity, short labor supply will require a sizable offset by an optimum growing season to hold cotton production as high as last year. The N avy’s warship construction program is being expanded by 84 new vessels which would seem to indicate a continuance o f operations well beyond the cur rent year at as full a level as manpower supplies will per mit, at the N orfolk and Charleston Navy Yards, as well as at the Newport News Shipbuilding and Dry Dock Company. The Merchant shipbuilding program, however, will be terminated by the end o f the current year, ac cording to present plans. It is probable that many o f the workers now engaged in merchant ship production can find employment in the yards o f the District working on naval construction. Although employment levels at mer chant shipyards are well below those o f a year ago, com- BUSINESS IN D E X ES— FIFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Average Daily 1935-39 = 100 Seasonally Adjusted Feb. 1945 Bank Debits ............................... Bituminous Coal Production* Building Contracts Awarded ... Building Permits Issued .......... Cigarette Production ................ Cotton Consumption* .............. Department Store Sales ........... Department Store Stocks ....... Life Insurance Sales ................. Wholesale Trade— Four Lines Retail Furniture Sales .............. * Not seasonally adjusted. 221 139 76 25 149 149 251 172 146 189 145 Jan. 1945 209 139 103 64 138r 145 238 178 140 198 157 Dec. 1944 231 118 96 42 155 133 208 162 120 177 167 Feb. 1944 212 149 122 23 153 151 209 176 128 181 116 Feb. 1945 from Jan. ’45 Feb. ’44 + 6 + 4 0 — 7 — 26 — 38 — 61 + 9 — 3 + 8 — 1 + 3 + 20 + 5 — 3 — 2 + 4 + 14 5 4- 4 — 8 -f 25 2 MONTHLY REVIEW pletion of contracts should materially ease the manpower tension. It would not be realistic, however, to expect that many released shipyard workers would seek employment in the cotton textile industry or in the bituminous mines while better paying jobs are still available. Western Virginia is still the preferred location for the rayon industry, which is probably due to its water supply, normal labor reserve, and to a central location between the northern and southern textile factories. The new plant of the Viscose Corporation to be built after the war will be located in Pulaski County, across the river from R adford, Virginia, and will employ 1,000 workers. It will not only add an additional unit of the industry to Virginia, but will materially aid in preventing Radford from becoming a ghost town. The cotton textile output o f the District as measured by average daily cotton consumption gives further evi dence of having stabilized. In fact, the February figure would seem to point to moderate improvement, but an early spring rise has occurred in the past two years, only to give way to further declines later on. This has, no doubt, been caused by off-season employment o f farmers in the mills. Even though these workers return to the farms next month, it seems quite likely that the bulk of the regular workers will be held by the mills during the current year, because the manpower situation overall has about stabilized in mill regions except for turnover from one mill to another. Furthermore, it is not likely that many textile workers will be moving into war industries, remotely located from their homes, at this late stage of the war. There are some conflicting factors in the offing, however, which at present remain indeterminate. If it became evident that the war would be brought to an early conclusion, labor turnover and absenteeism would probably be materially lowered among those who considered them selves a part of the permanent labor force, while those who consider themselves temporary employees might take more days off or even drop out of the labor market. Bituminous coal output in February was at the same average daily level as in January with the first two months output 7 per cent below that o f the same period last year. In the calendar year 1944 the average number o f workers engaged in the coal mines o f W est Virginia was 7,200 less than in 1943, and no developments have occurred to stay or reverse this trend. Facts on the operations of strip mines are not available, but the strip mine act re cently passed by the W est Virginia Legislature requiring reclamation of the land after mining is ended, could pre vent expansion in coal mined by the strip process or even reduce it in the short run, if there were a sufficient number o f operators who could not comply with the law. The District’s contribution to the domestic cigarette supply has been in a gradual downward trend for the past year while indications point to a total production holding on an even keel at peak levels. Since cigarette requirements for the armed •forces are estimated higher this year than last year, and since production appears to be at its maximum, the District production for the domestic market seems likely to continue the downward trend. Life insurance has been an important medium for the investment o f the District's savings, and in 1944 the new business written in the District amounted to $597 million, an increase o f 13 per cent from 1943 and a gain, o f 35 per cent from 1942. Even though these gains are notable, the growth in life insurance has probably not kept pace with the growth in savings. New life insurance written in the Fifth District in 1944 was at the best level since 1930. Iin the first two months o f 1945 sales were 10 per cent ahead o f last year. The average daily department store sales index, sea sonably adjusted, for February equalled the record high figure established in November, and exceeded February 1944 by 20 per cent. Total deposits o f the weekly reporting member banks declined $17 million between February 14 and March 14, but on the latter date they were $313 million higher than on March 15, 1944. The reduction in the past month was due entirely to a decline in United States Government deposits o f $81 million as other deposits increased $64 million o f which $37 million was in demand deposits o f individuals, partnerships, and corporations. Loans and investments in the past month decreased $16 million, o f which half the decline was caused by loans and half by investments, while cash assets decreased $5 million in the same period. Between March 15, 1944, to March 14, 1945, loans increased $19 million and invest ments, $255 million. The $255 million increase in se curity holdings between March 15, 1944, and March 14, 1945, was accounted for by an increase o f $265 million in direct obligations o f the Government; a decline o f $12 million in guaranteed obligations; and an increase o f $2 million in other securities. Security holdings o f the weekly reporting banks on March 14, 1945 are shown below, together with changes from a month ago and a year ago. SECURITY HOLDINGS OF WEEKLY REPORTING BANKS FIFTH DISTRICT (Million Dollars) Change from Mar. 14, 1945 U. S. Gov’t, (direct). . Biills . . ..................... C. of I............... ........ Notes ......................... Bonds ....................... Gov’t, guaranteed . . . . Other securities . . . . . . Total Securities . 1,567 Feb. 14, 1945 Mar. 15, 1944 — 12 +265 97 336 266 868 14 58 — 8 +32 — 39 + 3 + 2 4" 2 — 82 + 92 49 +156 — 12 + 2 1,639 — 8 +255 MONTHLY REVIEW 3 Deposit Ownership and its Relevance Demand deposits o f individuals, partnerships and cor porations— which will hereafter be called deposits— of 468 banks which were members o f the Federal Reserve System on January 31, 1944, continued the rising trend that has been characteristic since the beginning o f the war. These deposits on January 31 for the 468 banks are estimated at $2,554,712,000, a gain o f 14.6 per cent since the last deposit ownership survey at the end o f July, 1944, and a gain o f 18.8 per cent since the Febru ary 1944 survey; they are 1.9 per cent higher than on the December 30, 1944 call date. The above changes are for the same banks in each period, since banks ad mitted to membership after February 1944 have been included in previous figures. These are shown as follows by size groups as classified on December 31, 1943. TABLE 1. ESTIMATED DEMAND DEPOSITS OF INDIVIDUALS, PARTNERSHIPS AND CORPORATIONS OF ALL MEMBER BANKS— FIFTH DISTRICT Banks with Deposits on Dec. 31, 1943 of Over 50 Million .......... 25 - 50 Million ............ 10 - 25 Million ............ 5 - 10 Million ............ 2 - 5 Million ............ 1 - 2 Million ............ Under 1 M illion............ Total ................... No. of Banks 9 8 28 33 84 99 207 468 Jan. 31 1945 (Million Dollars) United States June ‘Dec. June Dec. June Dec. June Dec. June Dec. June 30, 31, 29, 31, 30, 31, 30, 31, 30, 31, 30, 819,269 332,178 494,540 255,658 320,872 178,766 153,429 + 2.2 + .9 + 3.9 + 2.1 — .3 + 1.3 +1.5 +16.2 + 9.5 +15.3 +12,7 +19.6 + 8.2 +16.1 +17-2 +12.6 +20.5 +20.9 +18.8 +26.0 +24.8 2,554,712 + 1 .9 +14.6 +18.8 1939............ ....................... 1939............ ....................... 1940............ ....................... 1940............ ....................... 1941.................................... 1941............ 1942............ ....................... 1942............. ....................... 1943............. ....................... 1943............. 1944............. 24,772 27,197 28,899 32,401 34,331 39,266 47,128 53,423 Fifth District * Dist. % of U. S. 989 1,127 1,155 1,325 1,437 1,671 1,809 2,306 2,572 2,837 2,803 3.99 4.14 4.00 4.09 4.19 4.57 4.61 4.89 4.81 4.86 4.89 * Entire state of West Virginia included. The trend o f deposits is an important consideration for every bank in the District for two reasons: Some con ception o f the deposit trend is necessary in order to formulate a rational investment policy. The more ac curate that conception, the better the bank will be equipped to work out a suitable program for conversion o f funds. Per Cent Change from Dec. 30 July 31 Feb.29 1944 1944 1944 The rise in the deposit level is a direct result o f the expansion of credit extended to the Federal Government by bank purchases of Government bonds. So long as the Treasury cannot obtain required funds from taxes an d /or from the sale o f its bonds to non-bank investors who will pay for them out o f current income, it will be necessary for banks to continue extending credit to the Government by continued purchases of these bonds. D e posits therefore will continue to rise so long as banks must extend credit to the Government. The amount o f the rise in deposits occasioned by direct Treasury financing according to present reckoning, however, will be about 22 per cent smaller in the fiscal year 1946 than in the current fiscal year. But a greater deposit rise would occur if non-bank holders should sell some o f their bond hold ings to the commercial banks. The prospect over the next year then points to a further rise in the deposits o f the nation’s banks augmented or tempered in degree by the manner in which the citizens invest in or divest them selves of Government securities. The banks o f the Fifth Federal Reserve District, ac cording to F D IC figures, received an increasing share o f the nation’s expanding deposits up through 1942, but since then the District’s share has held about constant. So long as the value o f production o f goods and services in the District maintains pace with that of the nation, deposits will also maintain the same rate of growth as shown for the nation.. The manner in which the District’s deposits have changed in relation to those o f the nation is shown as fo llow s: TABLE 2. DEMAND DEPOSITS OF INDIVIDUALS, PARTNERSHIPS AND CORPORATIONS, INSURED COMMERCIAL BANKS A n a l y s is of D e p o s it O w n e r s h ip The problem o f holding cash at a minimum, and in vesting it in bills or certificates is one which ties in directly with the analysis o f deposit ownership. Only by knowing the character o f the receipts and expenditures of the owners o f deposits can the banker hope to appraise the probable flow o f funds into and out o f his bank. T o assist him in this analysis is the primary objective o f the semi-annual deposit ownership surveys conducted by this and the other Federal Reserve Banks. The chief purpose o f study o f deposit ownership should be to determine two things. First, what volume o f funds under any consideration can be considered permanent, and second, what is the minimum cash requirement. W hen these two problems can be answered with satisfaction, the investment problem becomes one o f utilizing the perma nent funds in properly spaced securities maturing up to 10 years a n d /or in loans, and utilizing the balance o f the funds above minimum cash requirements for investment in bills and certificates. D e p o s it O w n e r s h i p O f the $2,554,712,000 o f deposits, estimated for the member banks o f this District on January 31, 1945, business concerns owned $1,437,697,000, or 56.3 per cent TABLE 3. OWNERSHIP OF MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS FIFTH DISTRICT January 31, 1945 July 31, 1944 Thous. $ 372,654 175,261 % 14.6 6.9 Thous. $ 376,908 162,151 528,522 20.7 445,073 February 29, 1944 Thous. $ % 16.9 348,858 7.3 163,002 % 16.2 7.6 20.0 19.5 Manufact’g & mining Public utilities ............ Retail & wholesale trade, etc.................. Other non-financial business ................... Total non-financial business ............. Financial business . . . 182,688 7.1 166,647 7.5 171,556 8.0 1,259,125 178,572 49.3 7.0 1,150,779 159,330 51.7 7.1 1,103,817 155,333 51.3 7.2 Total business ........ Non-profit associations Personal(incl. farmers) 1,437,697 136,606 980,409 56.3 5.3 38.4 1,310,109 114,273 805,637 58.8 5.1 36.1 1,259,150 117,741 773,826 58.5 5.5 36.0 2,554,712 100.0 2,230,019 100.0 2,150,717 100.0 Total ................. . 420,401 4 MONTHLY REVIEW o f the total; individuals (including farmers) owned $980,409,000, or 38.4 per cent’; while non-profit associations owned $136,606,000, or 5.3 per cent. Deposits owned by business concerns and individuals have increased in dollar amounts in each of the ownership surveys since that made as of February 29, 1944, but business deposits have not risen as rapidly as the total while individual deposits have risen more rapidly than the total, as table 3 on page 3 shows. Between February 29 and July 31, 1944, shifts in the ownership of deposits were of minor proportions with the total level rising $79,302,000, or 3.7 per cent. Those of business organizations rose $50,959,000, or 4.0 per cent, which was somewhat more percentagewise than the total; personal deposits rose $31,811,000, or 4.1 per cent, which was somewhat more percentagewise than either business deposits or the total; while non-profit association deposits declined $3,468,000, or 2.9 per cent. O f the increase o f $50,959,000 in deposits of business concerns between February 29, 1944, and July 31, 1944, deposits of manu facturing, mining, trade, and financial business concerns increased $56,719,000, while deposits o f public utility and other non-financial concerns declined $5,760,000. From July 31, 1944, to January 31, 1945, there was a notable drift of deposits into personal holdings, and a marked gain in deposits o f non-profit associations. Total deposits within this period increased $324,693,000, or 14.6 per cent. Deposits owned by individuals in the same period rose $174,772,000, or 21.7 per cent; while deposits o f non-profit associations increased $22,333,000, or 19.5 per cent. Deposits owned by business concerns between July 31, 1944, and January 31, 1945, increased $127,588,000, or 9.5 per cent. Thus, the chief trends o f deposit ownership in this latest period surveyed were into per sonal and non-profit association accounts, and had it not been for an increase in total deposits there would have been a shift of deposits from business accounts to per sonal and non-profit association accounts. This is put in clearer perspective when it is noted that business concerns owned 58.8 per cent of the deposits on July 31, 1944, but received only 39 per cent o f the increase in deposits from July 31, 1944, to January 31, 1945. Individuals owned 36.1 per cent of the deposits on July 31, and received 54 per cent of the increase to January 31, 1945; while non-profit associations owned 5.1 per cent o f the deposits on July 31, and received 7 per cent o f the increase. A s can be seen in Table 3, retail and wholesale trade firms and dealers in commodities hold the largest propor tion o f the business deposits of any o f the classified busi ness owners, and these owners have shown a steadily in creasing percentage of total deposits on the three dates under review. Table 4 shows the amount of this increase between February 29, 1944, and January 31, 1945, to be $108,121,000, which is 27 per cent of the total deposit increase in the same period. Other business concerns taken together show a steadily declining percentage of total deposit holdings from 39.0 per cent on February 29, 1944, to 38.8 per cent on July 31, 1944, to 35.6 per cent on January 31, 1945. From February 29, 1944, to January 31, 1945, the total dollar increase o f business deposits, exclusive o f those owned by firms engaged in trade, has amounted to $70,476,000, or only 17 per cent o f the total deposit increase. The accompanying table shows the changes in deposit ownership o f Fifth District member banks as fo llo w s : TABLE 4. CHANGES IN DEPOSIT OWNERSHIP OF FIFTHf DISTRICT MEMBER BANKS Feb. 29, 1944 to July 31,1944 Thous. $ Manufacturing & mining . . + 28,050 Public utilities — 851 Retail & whole sale trade, etc. + 24,672 Other non-finan cial business — 4,909 Total nonfinan cial business + 46,962 Financial bus. + 3,997 Total business + 50,959 Non-profit associations — 3,468 Personal (incl. farmers) + 31,811 Total . .. + 79,302 July 31, 1944 to Jan. 31, 1945 Feb. 29, 1944 to Jan. 31, 1945 Thous. $ % + 8.0 — 1.1 — 4,254 + 13,110 — i.i + 8.1 + + + 5.9 + 83,449 + 18.7 + 108,121 + 25.7 — 2.9 + 16,041 + + + + 4.3 + 2.6 + 108,346 + 19,242 + 9.2 + 12.1 + 155,308 + 23,239 + 14.2 + 15.0 + 178,547 + 14.2 + + 16.0 % 9.6 Thous. $ 23,976 12,259 11,132 % + + 6.8 7.5 6.5 + 4.0 + 127,588 + — 2,9 + + 19.5 + 4.1 + 174,772 + 21.7 + 206,583 + 26.7 + 3.7 + 324,693 + 14.6 + 403,995 + 18.8 A p p l ic a t io n of 22,333 th e 9.5 18,865 S t a t is t ic s These changes in deposit ownership are significant as regards the use to which tljey will be put. They show a distinct tendency for personal deposits to rise faster than total deposits. This reflects large increases in per sonal incomes and a disposition to save in the form of bank deposits. Here, then, would seem to be a factor which the banker could utilize when investing personal deposits. So long as the total deposit level rises, these deposits might well be fully invested. For such time in the future as the banker can appraise his deposit trend, and until it is pos sible for individuals to make expenditures or down-payments for products costing considerable sums o f money, the bulk o f personal deposits could be fully invested in securities with maturities in keeping with the permanency o f the deposits. Deposits o f firms engaged in trade have shown a ten dency to rise somewhat faster than total deposits in the period under review, but there will be many firms engaged in trade like automobile dealers, farm implement dealers, and others dealing in durable commodities which will use their deposits to rebuild inventories as soon as they can do so. Some o f them may even be prospects for loans. Other retailers, like department and allied stores, are not likely to experience any material change in their deposit level unless expansion in quarters is contemplated or an increase in receivables relative to sales takes place. These might reduce their deposits by construction expenditures and by further increasing inventories, as well as increas ing the draft on cash to carry a heavier receivable load. As matters now stand, the best guess would be that from one to two years would elapse from this moment before any construction or inventory building could take place. Even when these can be effected, the chances are that there will be no wholesale movement o f deposits out of the District’s banks for those purposes, but rather a gradual reduction and o f moderate proportions. Those transient retailers or wholesalers who move into areas where business is extraordinarily good, however, will MONTHLY REVIEW probably close shop and withdraw their deposits when trade conditions settle. Business deposits other than those of trade firms have increased only slightly. This is probably due in part to price controls, to the fact that these concerns invest a larger proportion of their income than do individuals, and to a rising cost o f production which reduces income or acts as a restraint on the increase. If deposits continue to rise sufficiently, the chances are that deposits o f these businesses will rise somewhat also, but if the deposit rise is much less than has been experienced in recent years, it is likely that some o f these business deposits will be shifted to individuals so long as operating margins con tinue to be narrowed by increasing costs. Such firms as are confronted with contract termination may find it necessary to withdraw deposits for business uses before final settlement is made. Many manufacturing concerns will withdraw deposits as soon as they are able to make repairs, replacements and extensions. Others now hold ing large raw material inventories may prefer to work these down to lower levels and thus further increase de posits. Appraisal o f these accounts should give the banker a working idea of what portion may be considered permanent funds, and these permanent deposits might be invested in securities of appropriate maturities. T r e n d o f D e p o s it O w n e r s h i p Since under varying conditions different segments of the economy o f the District change in different propor 5 tions, it is important to note the effect o f these changes on the different types of deposit trends. It is rarely ever possible to stereotype any given bank as an “ agricultural” bank, a “ trade” bank, or a “ manufacturing” bank, but some o f these factors are often reflected in the size o f the institutions. Most o f the District’s banks having deposits over $50 million are in the larger cities, with those be tween $10 and $50 million located in the moderate sized industrial cities as well as in the largest cities, while those with deposits under $5 million are in small manu facturing cities, trading centers, and agricultural areas. Deposit increases in this District have been largest in agricultural areas or in those centers where war produc tion has been a new addition rather than a conversion. In these areas increases in income have been the greatest, and in the main, the deposits o f smaller banks have re flected these increases. But these trends are not so well reflected in the changes between February 29, 1944 and January 31, 1945, as between the year end figures, a fact probably in part due to effects o f the Fourth W ar Loan which ended a short while before the February 1944 sur vey. W e believe it will be useful to bankers, however, to study the behavior o f ownership by size o f bank and the accompanying table is submitted for that purpose. DEPOSIT OWNERSHIP BY SIZE OF BANK ALL FIFTH DISTRICT MEMBER BANKS Thousand Dollars Type of Deposit Owners Feb. 29, 1944 July 31, 1944 Jan. 31, 1945 Percentage Change Feb. to July Per Cent of Total July to Jan. Feb. to Jan. Feb. 29, July 31, Jan. 31, 1944 1944 1945 Banks with deposits over $50 million 1. 2. 3. 4. Manufacturing and mining ................ ............. Public utilities, etc................................... Retail and wholesale trade, etc. ........... ............ Other non-financial business .......... ................. 142,559 80,364 118,100 58,002 152,321 69,108 120,587 58,531 151,565 77,011 150,745 64,722 + 6.8 — 14.0 + 2.1 + 0.9 — 0.5 +11.4 +25.0 +10.6 + 6.3 — 4.2 +27.6 +11.6 20.4 11.5 16.9 8.3 21.6 9.8 17.1 8.3 18.5 9.4 18.4 7.9 5. 6. Total non-financial business . Financial business .......................... 399,025 60,099 400,547 64,877 444,043 72,096 + 0.4 + 8.0 +10.9 +11.1 +11.3 +20.0 57.1 8.6 56.8 9.2 54.2 8.8 7. 8. 9. Total business ....................... ....... ...... ............. 459,124 55,207 Non-profit associations .......................... 184,488 Personal ............................................. 465,424 44,427 195,337 516,139 56,530 246,600 + 1.4 — 19.5 + 5.9 +10.9 +27.2 +26.2 +12.4 + 2.4 +33.7 65.7 7.9 26.4 66.0 6.3 27.7 63.0 6.9 30.1 ............ 698,819 705,188 819,269 + 0.9 +16.2 +17.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 10. Total ............................................. ............ Banks with deposits of $25-$50 million 48,685 36,293 57,242 24,195 44,003 43,700 63,729 24,884 43,848 41,854 74,408 24,913 — 9.6 +20.4 +11.3 + 2.8 — 3.5 — 4.2 +16.8 + 0.1 — 9.9 +15.3 +30.0 + 3.0 16.5 12.3 19.4 8.2 14.5 14.4 21.0 8.2 13.2 12.6 22.4 7.5 Total non-financial business . .......... Financial business ..................... 166,415 25,375 176,316 24,885 185,023 29,564 + 5.9 — 1.9 + 4.9 +18.8 +11.2 +16.5 56.4 8.6 58.1 8.2 55.7 8.9 7. 8. 9. Total business .............................. ....... Non-profit associations ............. ....... Personal ......................................... .......... 191,790 10,622 92,649 201,201 12,746 89,524 214,587 14,948 102,643 + 4.9 +20.0 — 3.4 + 6.7 +17.3 +14.7 +11.9 +40.7 +10.8 65.0 3.6 31.4 66.3 4.2 29.5 64.6 4.5 30.9 10. Total ........................................... .......... . 295,061 303,471 332,178 + 2.9 + 9.5 +12.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 1. 2. 3. 4. Manufacturing and mining . ... Public utilities, etc................................... Retail and wholesale trade, etc. . . .................. Other non-financial business . ............ . 5. 6. MONTHLY REVIEW Thousand Dollars Type of Deposit Owners Feb. 29, 1944 July 31, 1944 Jan. 31, 1945 Percentage Change Feb. to July Per Cent of Total July to Jan. Feb. to Jan. Feb. 29, 1944 July 31, Jan. 31, 1945 1944 14.7 15.7 6.1 6.0 22.7 22.5 8.9 Banks with deposits of $10-$25 million 60,343 25,040 93,182 49,670 67,325 25,729 96,485 38,165 71,214 27,694 115,228 41,541 + 11.6 + 2.8 + 3.5 —23.2 + 5.8 + 7.6 +19.4 + 8.8 +18.0 + 10.6 +23.7 — 16.4 Total non-financial business . ........... ............ 228,235 Financial business ................................... ............ 34,071 227,704 34,306 255,677 37,585 — 0.2 + 0.7 +12.3 + 9.6 + 12.0 +10.3 55.6 8.3 53.1 8.0 51.7 7.6 9. Total business ....................................... ............ 262,306 Non-profit associations ........................... ............ 18,472 ............ 129,716 262,010 24,014 142,798 293,262 28,683 172,595 — 0.1 +30.0 + 10.1 +11.9 +19.4 #+20.9 + 11.8 +55.3 +33.1 63.9 4.5 31.6 61.1 5.6 33.3 59.3 5.8 34.9 10. ............ 410,494 428,822 494,540 + 4.5 +15.3 +20.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 12.2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Manufacturing and mining .................. ............ Public utilities, etc.................................... ............ Retail and wholesale trade, etc............... ............ Other non-financial business ................ ............ 12.1 14.4 5.6 23.3 8.4 Banks with deposits of $5-$10 million 1. 2. 3. 4. Manufacturing and mining Public utilities, etc....................... Retail and wholesale trade, etc. Other non-financial business . 5. Total non-financial business . Financial business ...................... 6. Total business ........... Non-profit associations Personal ........................ 10. 30,883 9,307 48,863 15,442 32,218 10,664 53,771 17,243 31,190 11,505 61,102 17,129 + 4.3 +14.6 + 10.0 +11.7 — 3.2 + 7.9 +13.6 — 0.7 + 1.0 +23.6 +25.0 +10.9 14.6 4.4 23.1 7.3 14.2 4.7 23.7 7.6 4.5 23.9 6.7 104,495 17,134 113,896 18,831 120,926 19,174 + 9.0 + 9.9 + 6.2 + 1.8 +15.7 +11.9 49.4 50.2 8.3 47.3 7.5 .. 121,629 .. 12,692 77,209 132,727 12,252 81,905 140,100 13,806 101,752 + 9.1 — 3.5 + 6.1 + 5.6 +12.7 +24.2 +15.2 + 8.8 +31.8 57.5 36.5 58.5 5.4 36.1 54.8 5.4 39.8 211,530 226,884 255,658 + 7.3 +12.7 +20.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 14.5 3.6 24.5 5.3 . Total 8.1 6.0 Banks with deposits of $2-$5 million 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. Manufacturing and mining . ... Public utilities, etc....................... Retail and wholesale trade, etc. Other non-financial business .... 38,080 8,642 63,737 16,475 44,267 8,853 63,583 13,682 46,526 11,551 78,614 17,006 +16.2 + 2.4 — 0.2 — 17.0 + 5.1 +30.5 +23.6 +24.3 + 22.2 +33.7 +23.3 + 3.2 14.1 3.2 23.6 6.1 16.5 3.3 23.7 5.1 Total non-financial business Financial business ..................... 126,934 9,993 130,385 ' 9,658 153,697 12,514 + 2.7 — 3.4 +17.9 +29.6 + 21.1 +25.2 47.0 3.7 48.6 3.6 47.9 3.9 Total business ........... Non-profit associations Personal . ....................... 136,927 12,153 120,992 140,043 12,341 115,898 166,211 13,156 141,505 + 2.3 + 1.5 — 4.2 +18.7 + 6.6 + 22.1 +21.4 + 8.3 +17.0 50.7 4.5 44.8 52.2 4.6 43.2 51.8 4.1 44.1 270,072 268,282 320,872 - 0.7 + 19.6 +18.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 14.1 Total Banks with deposits of $l-$2 million 18,721 2,127 21,700 4,822 23,289 2,643 26,427 5,285 16,804 4,112 25,564 8,938 +24.4 +24.3 + 21.8 + 9.6 —27.8 +55.6 — 3.3 +69.1 — 10.2 +93.3 +17.8 +85.4 13.2 1.5 15.3 3.4 16.0 3.2 9.4 2.3 14.3 5.0 Total non-financial business Financial business .................... 47,370 5,957 57,644 5,451 55,418 5,184 +21.7 — 8.5 — 3.9 — 4.9 +17.0 — 13.0 33.4 4.2 34.9 3.3 31.0 2.9 Total business ........... Non-profit associations Personal ......................... 53,327 4,539 83,963 63,095 3,469 98,607 60,602 3,039 115,125 +18.3 —23.6 +17.4 — 4.0 — 12.4 +16.8 +13.6 — 33.0 +37.1 37.6 3.2 59.2 38.2 59.7 33.9 1.7 64.4 141,829 165,171 178,766 +16.5 + 8.2 +26.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.8 10.2 1.1 7.5 1.0 14.3 2.4 15.5 6.7 14.9 5.5 1. 2. 3. 4. Manufacturing and mining .... Public utilities, etc....................... Retail and wholesale trade, etc. Other non-financial business ..... 5. 6. 7. 10. Total . 1.6 2.1 Banks with deposits of under $1 million 1. 2. 3. 4. Manufacturing and mining ..... Public utilities, etc....................... Retail and wholesale trade, etc. Other non-financial business . 9,587 1,229 17,577 2,950 13,485 1,454 20,491 8,857 11,507 1,534 22,861 8,439 +40.7 +18.3 +16.6 + 200.2 — 14.7 + 5.5 + 11.6 — 4.7 + 20.0 +24.8 +30.1 +186.1 5. 6. Total non-financial business . Financial business ...................... 31,343 2,704 44,287 1,322 44,341 2,455 +41.3 — 51.1 + 0.1 +85.7 +41.5 — 9.2 25.5 33.5 28,9 2.2 1.0 1.6 7. 8. 9. Total business ........... Non-profit associations Personal ..................... 34,047 4,056 84,809 45,609 5,024 81,568 46,796 6,444 100,189 +34.0 +23.9 — 3.8 + 2.6 +28.3 +22.8 +37.4 +58.9 +18.1 27.7 3.3 69.0 34.5 3.8 61.7 30.5 4.2 65.3 122,912 132,201 153,429 + 7.6 +16.1 +24.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 10. Total 1.0 7 MONTHLY REVIEW FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND (All Figures in Thousands) DEBITS TO INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS ITEMS Total Gold Reserves ................. . Other Reserves ......................... Total Reserves ....................... Bills Discounted ..................... Industrial Advance ................... Gov’t. Securities, Total .......... Bonds ....................................... Notes ........................................ Certificates ............................. Bills ........................................ Total Bills and Securities . . . Uncollected Items . ............... . Other Assets ............................... Total Assets ........................... . March 14 1945 $1,026,078 14,199 1,040,277 8,175 119 1,142,162 72,551 68,339 346,744 654,528 1,150,456 150,979 12,486 $2,354,198 Change in Amt. from 2-14-45 3-15-44 + 38,186 — 30,940 — 3,226 — 2,798 + 34,960 — 33,738 + 2,175 + 2,425 — 98 — 2 — 4,216 + 491,028 — 23,688 — 1,161 — 9,179 — 31,988 + 30,901 + 156,655 — 1,968 + 367,240 — 1,793 + 493,105 + 18,721 + 2,857 — 3,120 — 2,172 + 48,768 + 460,052 Fed. Res. Notes in Cir.............. . Deposits, Total ......................... Members’ Reserves ............... U. S. Treas. Gen. Acc........... Foreign ..................................... Other Deposits ....................... Deferred Availability Items . Other Liabilities ..................... . Capital Accounts . ................. Total Liabilities ............... $1,510,885 689,563 618,878 18,594 49,073 3,018 130,001 493 23,256 $2,354,198 + 23,539 — 6,266 + 2,194 — 6,437 — 2,454 + 431 + 30,978 + 42 + 475 + 48,768 + 347,420 +103,382 + 95,057 + 17,557 — 8,677 — 555 + 5,467 + 167 + 3,616 + 460,052 41 REPORTING MEMBER BANKS— 5th DISTRICT (All Figures in Thousands) March 14 1945 ITEMS Total Loans ................................... $ 297,751 140,966 Bus. and Agric. Loans .......... Real Estate Loans ................. 45,963 All Other Loans ..................... 110,822 Total Security Holdings ............ 1,638,029 U. S. Treas. Bills ................... 97,213 U. S. Treas. Certificates ........ 335,848 U. S. Treas. Notes ................. 265,838 867,815 U. S. Gov. Bonds ................... Obligations Gov. Guaranteed. 13,556 Other Bonds, Stocks and Sec. 57,759 106,084 Cash Items in Process of Col. .. 150,860 Due from Banks ................... 39,249 Currency and Coin ..................... 317,444 Reserve with F. R. Bank .......... 68,792 Other Assets ............................... Total Assets ................................. $2,618,209 Total Demand Deposits ............ Deposits of Individuals .......... Deposits of U. S. Gov............. Deposits of State & Local Gov. Deposits of Banks ................. Certified & Officers’ Checks. . Total Time Deposits ................. Deposits of Individuals .......... Other Time Deposits ............. Liabilities for Borrowed Money. All Other Liabilities . - ............ Capital Accounts . . . . .... $2,091,048 1,227,208 347,750 82,368 409,883 23,839 307,478 293,824 13,654 5,500 92,427 121,756 $2,618,209 Change in Amt. from 3-15-44 2-14-45 — 8,089 + 19,630 — 3,660 + 11,748 — 281 — 3,025 — 4,148 + 10,907 + 253,471 — 8,659 — 32,201 — 7,455 + 31,804 + 91,403 — 39,246 + 48,578 + 156,194 + 2,410 — 12,081 + 1,744 + 2,084 + 1,578 + 5,186 + 9,468 + 23,340 — 9,728 + 4,435 + 1,716 + 3,048 + 38,970 + 1,359 + 7,980 — 10,885 + 353,012 — 22,875 + 316,711 — 81,424 + 6,109 + 9,740 + 5,989 + 5.678 + 5,677 + 1 + 1,500 + 4,044 + 768 — 10,885 + 256,850 + 176,710 + 13,000 + 6,885 + 63,768 ■— 3,513 + 54,461 + 56,974 — 2,513 + 1,500 + 29,561 + 10,640 + 353,012 * Net figures, reciprocal balances being eliminated. DEPOSITS IN MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS 8 Baltimore Banks Total Deposits . Feb. 28, 1945 . . . . .$304,230,621 Jan. 31, 1945 $300,041,503 . Feb. 29, 1944 $263,354,813 So. Carolina 156,193 172,983 167,339 329,176 337,102 Virginia 19,849 20,502 19,661 40,351 38,883 2 Mos. 1945 % chg. from 2 Mos. 1944 $ 509,540 + 17 $1,063,776 + 16 Maryland Baltimore .......... Cumberland Frederick ............ Hagerstown 701,903 12,786 11,716 14,751 — 6 + 1 0 — 11 1,499,332 27,142 23,206 31,053 — 1 + 11 + 2 — 9 North Carolina Asheville ............ Charlotte ............ Durham .............. Greensboro .......... Kinston .............. Raleigh ............. W ilmington ........ Wilson ............... Winston-Salem . . 23,980 116,945 52,120 40,842 6,456 48,116 31,038 9,006 56,029 + 11 + 2 + 10 + 41 — 1 — 14 — 16 + 16 — 16 55,295 252,661 118,460 80,222 16,348 104,789 72,647 20,794 130,308 + 20 + 10 + 11 + 19 + 17 — 8 + 1 + 30 — 1 South Carolina Charleston .......... Columbia ............ Greenville .......... Spartanburg 37,296 47,333 38,161 19,868 — 11 — 3 + 11 + 1 81,298 101,740 80,426 44,553 — + + + Virginia Charlottesville . . Danville ............. Lynchburg .......... Newport News . . Norfolk ............... Portsmouth ........ Richmond ............ Roanoke .............. 18,692 14,670 19,153 19,912 102,747 14,521 307,635 39,180 + 39 + 11 — 4 — 31 — 11 — 6 — 6 — 1 38,872 37,898 42,042 44,218 234,677 32,347 658,060 84,810 + 43 + 39 + 1 — 19 + 1 + 4 + 3 + 10 West Virginia Bluefield ............. Charleston .......... Clarksburg ........ Huntington ........ Parkersburg District Totals 21,908 74,501 14,272 35,030 16,255 $2,476,362 — 1 — 1 + 4 + 30 + 14 0 47,498 155,361 32,727 73,128 36,394 $5,322,082 + 4 — 1 + 11 + 27 + 24 + 5 1 4 11 7 COMMERCIAL FAILURES PERIODS February 1945.. January 1945.. February 1944.. 2 Months 1945.. 2 Months 1944.. Number of Failures District U. S. 1 66 4 80 2 132 5 146 5 252 Total Liabilities District U. S. $ 1,000 $1,557,000 900,000 5,883,000 18,000 3,108,000 $901,000 $7,440,000 120,000 4,816,000 Source: Dun & Bradstreet COTTON CONSUMPTION AND ON HAND— BALES Feb. 1945 Fifth District States: Cotton consumed .......... 384,510 Cotton Growing States: Cotton consumed .............. 691,031 Cotton on hand Feb. 28 in Consum’g establishments 1,983,668 Storage & compresses. . 12,295,078 United States Cotton consumed .............. 781,559 Cotton on hand Feb. 28 in Consum’g establishments 2,278,052 Storage & compresses.. 12,400,3192 Spindles Active, U. S............ 22,223,848 Feb. 1944 Aug. 1 to Feb. 28 1945 1944 406,438 2,807,570 2,922,229 714,633 5,003,545 5,184,439 5,658,740 5,902,178 2,016,122 11,307,178 811,062 2,350,819 11,521,058 22,513,390 RAYON YARN DATA COTTON CONSUMPTION— FIFTH DISTRICT In Bales MONTHS . No. Carolina February 1945.. . ' 208,468 January 1945.. 226,639 February 1944.. 219,438 435,107 2 Months 1945.. 443,826 2 Months 1944.. . Dist. of Columbia Washington (000 omitted) February % chg. from 1945 Feb. 1944 District 384,510 420,124 406,438 804,364 819,811 Feb. 1945 Jan. 1945 Feb. 1944 Rayon Yarn Shipments, Lbs. . . . Staple Fiber Shipments, Lbs. .. . 45.700.000 12.800.000 47.800.000 14.400.000 43.300.000 13.600.000 Rayon Yarn Stocks, Lbs.............. Staple Fiber Stocks, Lbs.............. 6,600,000 3,200,000 8.400.000 3.100.000 7.500.000 2.100.000 Source: Rayon Organon. MONTHLY REVIEW 8 BUILDING PERMIT FIGURES Fifth Federal Reserve District Total Valuation Feb. 1944 Feb. 1945 Maryland Baltimore ...................................... Cumberland ................................... Frederick ...................................... Virginia Danville .......................................... $ 182,335 2,460 6,240 10,265 2,745 $ 258,102 26,945 3,300 100,550 9,756 $ 24,199 10,605 107,085 0 52,410 189,170 43,187 $ 3,765 2,395 41,975 4,200 13,276 71,960 4,963 $ 63,318 7,455 39,590 $ 27,594 460 5,460 $ 26,835 115,967 20,679 17,680 5,506 1,600 1,250 900 73,258 $ 10,848 33,103 10,640 5,178 17,739 46,999 2,500 27,630 15,993 69,340 15,905 3,645 23,310 $ Norfolk ......................................... Petersburg ................................... Richmond ..................................... Roanoke .......................................... West Virginia North Carolina Raleigh .......................................... South Carolina Charleston .................................... $ District of Columbia 25,398 6,217 1,925 179,245 $ 598,243 $ 603,860 $1,715,182 $1,561,976 $5,246,759 $2,707,059 RETAIL FURNITURE SALES Percentage Changes in Feb. and 2 Mos. 1945 Compared with Compared Feb. 1944 2 Mos. 1 Maryland (5)* ................. + 10 + 13 Dist. of Columbia (6)* . . . — 1 + 7 Virginia (25)* ................. + 11 + 12 West Virginia (9)* .......... + 20 + 8 North Carolina (21)* . . . . + 19 + 28 South Carolina (13)* . . . . + 16 + 7 Fifth District (79)* . . . + 13 + 10 INDIVIDUAL CITIES Baltimore, Md. (5)* ........ Washington, D. C. (6)* .. Lynchburg, Va. ( 3 ) * ........ Richmond, Va. (7)* ........ Charlotte, N. C. (4)* ___ Winston-Salem, N. C. (3)* Columbia, S. C. ( 4 ) * ........ + 10 — 1 — 1 + 16 + 18 + 21 + 8 + + + + + + + 13 7 3 16 32 37 6 * Number of reporting stores. DEPARTMENT STORE TRADE Richmond Baltimore Washington Other Cities District Percentage change in Feb. 1945 sales, compared with sales in Feb. 1944: + 14 +13 +13 +21 +15 Percentage change in 2 mos.’ sales 1945, compared with 2 mos. 1944 + 18 +13 +14 +25 +16 Percentage chg. in stocks on Feb. 28, 1945, compared with Feb. 29, 1944: — 2 — 3 — 4 0 ■ — 3 Percentage chg. in outstand’g orders Feb. 28/45 from orders Feb. 29/44: + 53 +47 + o0 +70 +50 Percentage in total receivables Feb. 28/45 from receivables Feb. 29/44: + 19 +19 + 15 . +20 +17 Percentage of current receivables as of Feb. 1 collected in February: 53 56 53 56 54 Percentage of instalment receivables as of Feb. 1 collected in February: 25 27 23 30 25 Percentage change in Feb. 4945 sales from Feb. 1944 sales, by States: TOBACCO MANUFACTURING % Change % Change from from 2 Mos. Feb. 1945 2 Mos/44 Feb. 1944 1945 Smoking and chewing to + 19 45,035 + 19 21,197 bacco (Thousands of lbs.) — 2 — 4 36,749,726 Cigarettes (Thousands ) ........ 16,672,714 768,049 0 388,629 + 2 Cigars (Thousands) .............. 7,574 3,892 + 4 Snuff (Thousands of lbs.) . . . + 11 WHOLESALE TRADE, 248 FIRMS LINES Auto Supplies (13)* . . . . Drugs & Sundries (11)*. Dry Goods (7)* ................ Electrical Goods (17)* .. Hardware (16)* .............. Industrial Supplies (8 )* .. Paper & Products (7)* .. Tobacco & Products (8)* Miscellaneous (85)* ........ District Average (248)* Net Sales Feb. 1945 compared with Jan. Feb. 1945 1944 + 48 + 4 — 11 — 1 — 6 0 — 3 0 — 12 — 6 — 4 Source: Department of Commerce. * Number of reporting firms. + 9 — 13 — 13 — 1 — 14 — 8 0 — 17 — 5 — 10 — 9 Stock Feb. 28, 1945 compared with Feb. 29 Jan.31 1944 1945 + 35 — 11 — 25 + 10 — 7 — 1 + 15 + 9 + 2 — 9 + 38 + 2 — 4 — 1 — 39 — 16 — 8 ’*O — 2 0 Ratio Feb. collections to accounts outstand’g Feb. 1 106 115 92 91 149 107 89 92 135 121 110 Maryland Dist. of Col. Virginia W. Va. No. Caro. So. Caro. + 13 +13 + 17 +26 +20 +19 Percentage change in 2 months’ sales, 1945 compared with 1944: + 13 +14 +19 + 25 +24 +17 SOFT COAL PRODUCTION IN THOUSANDS OF TONS 2 Mos Feb. Feb. 2 Mos. c/o % 1945 1944 Change 1945 1944 REGIONS Change — 11 13,594 West Virginia .. . 12,031 25,428 27,557 — 8 — 4 — 6 3,381 1,610 1,709 3,523 — 23 284 138 180 — 21 359 5th District . 13,779 15,483 — 11 29,093 31,439 — 7 52,817 — 11 99,100 106,919 — 7 United States . . 46,900 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 % in District .. CONTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED STATES Maryland ................. , Dist. of Columbia . . Virginia ................... West Virginia .......... North Carolina ......... South Carolina ......... Fifth District ........ Jan. 1945 $ 5,487,000 2,713,000 8,573,000 1,175,000 3,010,000 1,357,000 $22,315,000 Source. F. W. Dodge Corporation. Jan. 1944 $10,912,000 2,178,000 9,609,000 1,026,000 3,297,000 5,407,000 $32,429,000 % Change — 50 + 25 — 11 + 15 — 9 — 75 — 31 MONTHLY REVIEW 9 SUMMARY OF NATIONAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS (Compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) Industrial activity continued to increase slightly in Feb ruary and the early part of March. Value of department store sales was one-fifth greater than in the same period last year. Wholesale commodity prices generally showed little change. Industrial Production The Board’s seasonally adjusted index of industrial pro duction was 235 per cent of the 193^-39 average in Febru ary, as compared with 234 in January and 232 in the last quarter of 1944. Steel production, which declined further in the first part of February as a result of continued severe weather con ditions, showed a substantial increase at the end of the month and in the first three weeks of March. Average out put of open hearth steel during February was 2 per cent above the January rate, while electric steel production in creased 7 per cent. Output of nonferrous metals continued to rise slightly in February, largely reflecting increased military demands. Activity in the machinery and trans portation equipment industries was maintained at the level of the preceding month; a decline in shipbuilding offset a slight increase in output of most other munitions industries. Production of lumber and stone, clay, and glass products in February was at about the January level. Production of most nondurable goods showed little change in February. Output of cotton goods and shoes, however, rose 5 per cent from the preceding month to a level slightly above that of a year ago. Output of explosives and smallarms ammunition showed further large gains. Activity at meatpacking establishments continued to decline, as pork and lard production dropped further and was 50 per cent below the peak level reached a year ago. In March it was announced that supplies of meat available for civilians in the second quarter of 1945 would be 12 per cent less than in the first quarter. Activity in rubber products industries in January and February was 6 per cent above last autumn, reflecting chiefly a sharp increase in production of military truck tires. Minerals output rose slightly in February, reflecting in creased output of anthracite and a further gain in crude petroleum production. Anthracite production recovered in February and the first two weeks of March from a large decline during January. Bituminous coal production showed little change in February from the January level and de clined slightly in the eariy part of March. Distribution Department store sales in February, which usually show little change from January, increased considerably this year. Value of sales in February and the first half of March was 22 per cent larger than in the corresponding period a year ago, reflecting the earlier date of Easter this year and continuation of the freer spending in evidence since the middle of 1944. Freight carloadings, which had declined at the end of January and the early part of February owing to severe weather conditions, have increased since that time. Ship ments of miscellaneous freight were in larger volume in the 5-week period ending March 17 than in the correspond ing period of 1944, while loadings of most other classes of freight were less. Bank Credit Treasury expenditures during February and the first half of March continued to increase the total volume of de posits and currency held by the public. Adjusted demand deposits at weekly reporting banks in 101 cities increased 1.4 billion dollars and time deposits rose about 200 million dollars during the four-week period ended March 14. Cur rency in circulation increased 350 million dollars over the same period, but declined somewhat in the week following. To meet the resulting increase in required reserves as well as the currency drain, Federal Reserve Bank holdings of United States Government securities increased 395 million dollars in the four weeks ended March 14, while reductions in non-member and in Treasury deposits at the Reserve Banks supplied 450 millions of reserve funds to member banks. Excess reserves have remained at an average level of about a billion dollars. The increase in Federal Reserve holdings of Government securities roughly paralleled the decline in commercial bank holdings. Reporting banks reduced their portfolios by 260 million dollars in the four weeks. Holdings of Treasury notes declined by 1.7 billion dollars while certificate holdings increased by 1.4 billion dollars, reflecting the March 1 Treasury exchange offer. Bill holdings were reduced by 210 million dollars. Bond holdings, however, continued to increase. Total loans for purchasing and carrying Gov ernment securities declined by 230 million dollars and commercial loans by 185 million. BUSINESS IN D E X ES— FIFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Average Daily 1935-39 = 100 Seasonally Adjusted Jan. 1945 Bank Debits ................................. Bituminous Coal Production * . ................ Building Contracts Awarded ............. ... .......... Building Permits Issued . ... ... Cigarette Production ........... ......... ... Cotton Consumption * ........ ...... ................ Department Store Sales ..................... Department Store Stocks ............................ .... Electric Power Production ........ ........ Employment— Mfg. Industries * . Furniture Orders ................... Furniture Shipments .......... ..... . Furniture Unfilled Orders . Life Insurance Sales .................. Wholesale Trade— Four Lines . Wholesale Trade— Drugs .......... Wholesale Trade— Dry Gods . .. -l Wholesale Trade— Groceries .. ......... .. . Wholesale Trade— Hardware ............ Retail Furniture Sales .. * Not seasonally adjusted. 209 139 103 64 138r 145 238 178 214 137p 177p 199p 465p 140 198 216 252 208 97 157 Dec. 1944 Nov. 1944 231 118 96 42 155 133 208 162 209 138 186 204 561 226 146 81 48 162 149 251 159 215 137 160 144 494 137 182 232 98 120 177 223 120 190 105 167 200 94 166 Jan. 1944 • 197 149 150 21 158 148 208 179 204 147 208 209 440 121 184 201 193 191 110 130 % Change . Jan. 1945 from Dec. ’44 Jan. *44 — + + + — + + + + — 10 18 7 52 11 9 14 10 2 1 5 _ 2 — 17 + 17 + 12 — 3 +110 + — — 9 8 6 + 6 — 7 — 31 +205 — 13 — 2 + 14 — + — — + + + + + + — + 1 5 7 15 5 6 16 8 7 31 9 12 21
@FedFRASER