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FEDi ' RESERVE BANKj 'RICHMOND O M £U t December 1954 INCOMEOF FARM OPERATORS Billions of Dollars Realized G ross* 30 20 10 0 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 ★ Including Government payments, beginning 1933. Also In This Issue - - - 7~^ armers have experienced three consecutive Fifth District Trend C h arts____________ Page 2 years of declining incomes, a trend which may Department Store Sales ________________ Page 5 October Call Report ____________________Page 7 Business Conditions and P rosp ects_____ Page 9 Fifth District Statistical D a ta ___________ Page 11 continue in 1955. The article on page 3 discusses the agricultural outlook for 1955 and indicates opportunities for farmers and bankers to continue to cooperate in sound farming development. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond F ifth D istr ic t T r en d s TOTAL CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT AWARDS CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT AWARDS Sparked by sharp rises in commercial, factory and public works and utility awards, total contract awards increased 59% from Sep tember to October on a seasonally adjusted basis. October awards were 55% ahead of October last year and the ten months’ accumula tion was 13% higher. Commercial construction contract awards in October were up 77% on an adjusted basis from September and were 34% ahead of Octo ber 1953. The October award level did not approach the inordinate level of June but it was the second best month of 1954. Ten months’ awards were 33% ahead of last year. BITUMINOUS COAL PRODUCTION ACTIVE 150 COTTON SPINDLE HOURS 120 90 60 30 (Average Daily) (1947-1949* 100) 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 Evidences of real recovery have been witnessed in the cotton textile industry this Fall. The October record showed spindle-hour operations, seasonally adjusted, up 7 % from September and 1 % ahead of a year ago. The month’s level was within 2 .5% of the post-war peak. Better than seasonal improvement occurred in the output of bituminous coal in October. The average daily figure rose 9% above that of September to within 4 % of a year ago. Increasing demand for steel operations, belated replenishment of retail dealers’ inven tories and probably some expansion in other coal stocks have sparked the improvement. BUSINESS FAILURES RETAIL FURNITURE STORES NET SALES 150 ( Seasonally Adjusted) 150 (1947-1949-100) 125 100 75 ( Seasonally Adjusted) (1947-1949= 100) 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 After receding sharply in August and September sales of furniture stores in this District rose 19% after seasonal correction from Sep tember to October to a level 1 % ahead of October 1953. October was within 2 % of the year’s peak level established in May. Sales for ten months, however, were 7 % smaller than a year ago. Business failures in the Fifth District during October dropped 2 8 % on a seasonally adjusted basis from September to a level 19% below October 1953. For the first ten months the total is 60% above a year ago. The downward trend since April indicates that staying in business is less difficult than it was earlier in the year. -1 2 y December 1954 What Farmers Face in 1955 brief, the agricultural outlook for next year reads wheat, the nation’s total crop output for 1954 will be like th is: Domestic demand is expected to continue down about 5% from 1953’s high level. Some further high; exports should be up, perhaps 10% or m ore; acreage cutbacks are in prospect. Even if it is assumed supplies will continue large; and farmers’ prices are that most of the acreage diverted in 1954 and 1955 will expected to average close to present levels. Here, in a be effectively utilized and that growing conditions will nutshell, is the shape of things to come as currently be average, total crop output next year is likely to be seen by the Agricultural Marketing Service of the slightly below 1954 levels. Supplies of most major U SDA. crops (production plus carry-over) will continue large, but most of the carry-over stocks will continue to be T o farmers generally this means that next year will probably be much the same held by the CCC under price as this year— e x c e p t, of support programs. A ggre course, where acreage re gate production and market INCREASES IN FARM COSTS strictions cause further re ings of livestock and live 1935-1939 to 1954 ductions in plantings and stock products are expected growing conditions improve to hold at the same record Farm Wage Rates or worsen considerably. high level in 1955 as was Building Material Prices * Farmers therefore w ill established this year. again face a set of factors Although there will be Livestock Prices which will require much shifts among commodities, Farm Real Estate Values managerial skill if farm in the U S D A Outlook special Motor Vehicle Prices comes are to be improved. ists feel that the average Feed Prices Total gross farm income level of farm product prices Farm Real Estate Taxes again is expected to recede wT be the same in 1955 as ill slightly. P r o d u c t io n ex Farm Machinery Prices in the Fall of 1954. If this penses, in the aggregate, Farm Supply Prices be the case, cash income may continue their slight Seed Prices from livestock and livestock d o w n d r i f t , though not products will be about the Motor Supply Prices enough to prevent realized same next year as this, while Fertilizer Prices net farm income from some income from crops, total further shrinkage. 0 Percent 100 200 300 ♦ Fencing materials included. cash returns from market Even so, the forecasters ings, and total realized gross point out that, given average farm income will be slightly weather, it can be expected lower in 1955 than in this or other recent years. that efficient operators of efficient farms will chalk up Total farm production expenses have declined slight fairly nice net farm incomes in 1955. Those who are ly in each of the past two years. A small additional not in this class should begin to think realistically about decline is probable for 1955, although production ex their situations and possible courses of actions as they penses are not expected to slip as much as gross farm affect income potentials. income. This means less realized net farm income Outlook for Business in General which, even in 1954, is smaller in actual dollars than in A ny analysis of the agricultural outlook must neces any year since 1950 and, in terms of purchasing power, sarily make some basic assumptions as to the state of is the smallest since 1940. the national economy. Underlying the discussions at Meaning of the Outlook the recent Outlook Conference in Washington was the feeling that there need be little fear of a general reces W hat does this mean for Fifth District farmers, bank sion, and, unless war should break out, there is little ers, and other businessmen who are directly or indirect reason to expect a revival of general price inflation. ly dependent upon agriculture in 1955 ? Lower incomes, Employment, production, and purchasing power in 1955 to be sure, encourage farmers to watch expenditures are expected to remain near present levels. Consumer more carefully, but in today’s commercial agriculture incomes and consumer spending are expected to be fair it is impossible for farmers to stop spending and remain ly stable— and may increase slightly. Consumers will in business. probably continue to spend one-fourth of their income The accompanying chart shows that some elements for food as they have done in both 1953 and 1954. of farm costs have risen much more than others. These Production, Prices, and Incomes data explain why many farmers have acquired laborDue mainly to reduced production of cotton and saving machinery in order to reduce the need for hired / n 0 -I 3 y Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond labor. The “ good buy” and useful aid which fertilizer offers is also illustrated. Many farmers now planning to adjust their farming operations to bring about lower long-term costs will need to continue reasonably high levels of investment for the next few years. In other cases, the mere maintenance of the present efficient farm plant which many have already developed will require a continued high level of annual expenditures. Finally, it should be remembered that the range in final results of wise or unwise managerial decisions is likely to be abnormally wide in the years ahead. Thus, either indiscriminate spending or harsh economizing may weigh heavily as adverse affectors of net earnings. Prospects for Key District Commodities W hat’s ahead for the major commodities or com modity groups of particular concern to Fifth District farmers ? A quick look at each is offered in the follow ing paragraphs. look for cotton is one of large supplies, estimated dis appearance is about 1.3 million bales larger than last year and should reduce carry-over stocks somewhat. Contributing to the anticipated larger disappearance in 1955 is an expected increase of about 600,000 bales in domestic mill consumption. Adding to the larger domestic use are prospects for around a 700,000 bale increase in cotton exports, largely as the result of small stocks abroad and the relatively high level of cotton con sumption in foreign countries. Despite the outlook for a reduced cotton carry-over at the end of the year, a national marketing quota of 10 million bales has been proclaimed for the 1955 crop of upland cotton. Acreage allotments, set at 18.1 million acres for the nation and 1.3 million for the District, are 9 and 11 % respectively below the acreage in cultivation July 1, 1954. It remains to be seen whether Congress increases 1955 cotton allotments as it did in 1954. A flexible price support scale ranging from 82.5 to 90% of parity will apply to the 1955 crop of upland cot ton. However, supply provisions of the Agricultural Act of 1954 indicate that the 1955 price support level will be 90% of parity. Tobacco W ith tobacco accounting for 30% of the District’s total cash farm income, tobacco farmers will find sig nificance in the fact that domestic use— especially of cigarette-type tobaccos— is expected to continue firm in 1955. Expectations are that the major outlet— cigarette output— will continue in 1955 to run within the range of recent years despite the fact that cigarette consump tion, which persistently increased for so many years, has probably declined slightly in 1954. Exports for 1954-55 will probably be moderately above 1953-54. Pointing to this belief is the improved gold and dollar position of a number of important for eign buyers during the past two years, the continued uptrend in cigarette consumption in several importing countries, and the low foreign stocks of United States tobacco relative to consumption requirements. Tobacco exports should also benefit from recent legislation which permits foreign currencies to be accepted for sales of agricultural commodities in excess of usual marketings. The growing competition resulting from the sharp in crease in foreign tobacco production is an offsetting factor, however, and should not be overlooked. Supplies of most type tobaccos are large, and those of flue-cured and Burley are larger than last year. The 1955 crops of flue-cured, Burley, and Virginia suncured will be grown under acreage allotments and mar keting quotas. Producers of Maryland and fire-cured tobaccos will vote later this year either to approve quotas for the next three years, or for one year, or to reject them. Prices of 1955-crop tobacco will be supported on the same basis as in the past— flue-cured and Burley at 90% of parity and Virginia sun-cured at 66 2 /3 % of the Burley support level. Should quotas be approved for the Maryland and fire-cured types, supports are to be at 90% of parity for Maryland and 75% of the Burley level for fire-cured. P ou ltry and E ggs W ith poultry and eggs now the second largest source of farm income in this five-state area, contributing a 17-cent share to each farm dollar, the general price weakness in 1954 has been an important District de velopment. What is the outlook in this important sector? R ec ord or near-record supplies of poultry meat and eggs are assured for some months to come. Poultry and egg prices through mid-Summer 1955 are likely to continue well below average compared with feed prices. This will probably result in fewer chicks raised for laying flock replacement in 1955 and possible reductions in the number of eggs produced the last half of the year. Consumer demand for poultry products next year will stay about the same as in 1954. Storage demand for eggs should be weaker next Spring, however. Indications are that egg prices may be higher than year-ago levels by mid-Spring, though they will prob ably not be high enough to restore egg-feed price ratios to near-average levels. Despite the large crop and low prices in 1954, early-season testing of turkey hens for inclusion in next year’s breeding flocks is up from last Cotton For a crop that is no longer “ king” but which still contributed 11% to total District cash receipts from farming, it is meaningful that, though next year’s out (Continued on page 8) * 4 { y December 1954 Department Store Sales h e national economy has undergone a moderate recession in 1954 and a major influence in holding the dip to moderate proportions has been the fact that consumers continued to spend so heavily on goods and services. Actually, from January through September national consumer outlays for goods and services were at an annual rate of $232.8 billion, an unforecasted gain of $2.6 billion over 1953. During the same period, combined durable and nondurable goods sold at an an nual rate of $148.6 billion, less than a 1% decline from the 1953 period ; and nondurable goods purchases were running at an annual rate of $120 billion, or 1% over a year ago. T Department store sales in the same period, while maintaining historically a high level, were down 3.3% over the previous year— both for the nation and for the Fifth Federal Reserve District. In the long run, however, consumer outlays on non durable goods and department store sales in the Fifth District have shown about the same performance. Be tween 1945 and 1953 consumer outlays in the United States on nondurable goods rose at an annual compound rate of 6.3% . Sales of Fifth District department stores in the same period rose at an annual compound rate of 6.6%. Department store sales in this District reached their highest point in the second quarter of 1953 when the index (average daily seasonally adjusted) stood 24% above the 1947-49 base period. The third quarter of 1953 was 4.8% below the peak second quarter, while the fourth quarter was up a little from the third quarter and 4.0% under the second quarter peak. The lowest quarterly level came in the first quarter of 1954 when the decline from the peak quarter amounted to 5.7% . The 1954 second quarter level rose to 19533’s fourth quarter, and the third quarter 1954 level fell from the second quarter but did not quite reach the low level of the 1954 first quarter. Preliminary figures indicate an October adjusted index up sharply from September, a bit above the August level, and a moderate increase over October 1953. State and C ity E xperience In W est Virginia the slump in the bituminous coal industry and the lessened demand for durable goods has been primarily responsible for a decline of 9 % in de partment store sales in the first nine months of 1954 over the same months of 1953. North Carolina and Virginia showed declines of 5% in this period, a reflec tion of lower employment levels characteristic of most lines in these states as well as of poorer returns from agriculture, particularly in North Carolina. South Carolina department store sales in the first nine months of this year were down 3% from a year i s y ago but this state’s sales are fairly heavily weighted with stores in Columbia and Charleston where sales have done moderately well thus far this year. Charleston showed an increase of 1% (first nine months compared with the same months last year) and Columbia an in crease of 2 % . Sales in Maryland experienced a decline of 1% and the city of Baltimore showed the same decline as the state. In the Cumberland-Hagerstown, Maryland area, where industrial operations have been more adversely affected, sales were off 9 % in the period under review, with Hagerstown showing a decline of 5% and Cumber land a more substantial drop. Department store sales in the Washington metropolitan area gained 1% but stores in downtown Washington declined 2 % . In cities where figures can be cited without disclosing individual store operations, four showed increases in the first nine months compared with the same months of 1953. These w ere: Winston-Salem, North Caro lina, up 3% ; Columbia, South Carolina, up 2% ; and Charleston, South Carolina, and Washington metropoli tan area, both up 1% . Eight cities showed losses between 1% and 5% in the period under review. These include Hagerstown, Maryland, down 5 % ; Lynchburg, Virginia; Roanoke, Virginia; Greenville, North Carolina; Raleigh, North Carolina; and Asheville, North Carolina, each down 4% ; Richmond, and downtown Washington, each down 2% ; and Baltimore, down 1% . Seven cities showed department store sales down more than 5% in the period. They include: the Cum berland-Hagerstown area; Parkersburg, W est Virginia; Newport News, Virginia; and Spartanburg, South Car olina, each down 9 % . Charleston, W est Virginia, was down 8% and other cities not reported separately were off 8 % . Huntington, W est Virginia, declined 7% and the Norfolk-Portsmouth, Virginia, area 6 % . The rec ord shows that most of the smaller cities have not fared as well as the large cities. The seasonally adjusted department store sales figures averaged quarterly show some interesting comparisons at the state level. The peak quarter for the District was the second quarter of 1953. Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia and W est Virginia peaked in the same quarter. In North Carolina the peak was in the first quarter of 1953 and in South Carolina it was in the third quarter of 1953. Changes in department store sales between the peak quarter of 1953 and the low quarter of 1954 show fairly wide variations. The Dis trict as a whole was down 7.4% , W est Virginia down 12.6%, North Carolina down 9.9% , South Carolina down 15.6%, Maryland down 7.1% , Virginia down 10.5%, and the District of Columbia down 4.7% . De partment store sales in the third quarter 1954 had re Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond which was fairly consistent in each of the three quarters. W om en’s coats and suits, a very important department in most stores, showed a nine months’ decline of 9 % , with the first quarter off 16%, the second quarter 2% and the third quarter 10% . A rt needlework, of little significance in dollar terms, showed a nine months’ de cline of 7% with the second quarter bearing the drop. Books and magazines declined 5 % ; 7% in the first quarter, 4 % in the second quarter, and 3% in the third quarter. Furniture and bedding sales slipped 4 % in the nine months, with the first quarter down 6 % , the second 8 % , and the third up 3 % . The third quarter of 1954 was the best quarter in both years. Other departments showed small gains and losses for the nine months but their sales generally remained stable in the two periods. covered 1.7% from the low quarter of the recession, but those in Maryland were at their lowest in the third quarter and sales in W est Virginia had dropped back to the low level of the first quarter. South Carolina showed a 15.2% recovery from the low quarter to the third quarter; the District of Columbia 4.1% ; Virginia 3 .3 % ; and North Carolina 1.0%. W hat Has Been Selling Stores reporting departmentally are heavily weighted with reports from Baltimore, Richmond, and W ashing ton, and these stores have enjoyed better total sales than the District. For example, in the first nine months of 1954 this group showed a sales increase of 1.6% com pared with a decline of 3.3% for all reporting stores. Progress departmentally has been quite irregular. In the first nine months of 1954 furs and piece goods sold very well, and furs led all other departments with a gain of 17% over a year ago. Fur sales in the first quarter, however, were 11% smaller than in the same quarter last year. In the second quarter, following a reduction in Federal excise taxes, there was an increase of 42% , and the third quarter showed a good gain of 12%. Fairly strong upward trends, running back to 1952 and in some cases earlier, are shown in men’s furnish ings ; boys’ clothing and furinshings; men’s and boys’ shoes and slippers; housewares; cotton wash g o o d s ; notions; toilet articles; drugs and sundries; stationery; blouses, skirts and sportswear; juniors’ and girls’ wear; infants’ w ear; women’s and children’s shoes; neckwear, scarfs and handkerchiefs; millinery (though the current season has been p oor) ; and corsets and brassieres. Departments showing downward trends, at least since 1952, include women’s and misses’ coats and suits; children’s and women’s hosiery; furniture; major house hold appliances; radio, television, musical instruments; laces, trimmings, embroideries, ribbons; art nedlework; sporting goods and cameras. Piece goods have done very well this year. W oolen yard goods sales in nine months were up 13% from last year, with the bulk of the increase concentrated in the second quarter. Cotton yard goods did equally well, with an increase of 12.4% in the nine months, with the first quarter up 20% , the second quarter 6 % , and the third quarter 12% . Silks, velvets, and synthetics showed a moderate 6% gain for the nine months, with first and second quarters up 7% and the third quarter up 3 % . Toys and games had a nine months’ increase of 11%, with the bulk of it in the first quarter, apparently rep resenting unsold clearances from Christmas; the second and third quarters still showed better increases than total store sales. M ajor household appliances have also done quite well this year, with an increase of 8% in nine months and the best record established in the first quarter of the year when price clearances were an important stimulaing factor. The second and third quarters both con tinued above last year, although the gains have been decreasing. Other departments showing sales increases between 5 and 10% a year include silverware and jew elry; cor sets and brassieres; blouses, skirts and sportswear; boys’ w ear; men’s and boys’ shoes and slippers; radio, phono graph, television, music and musical instruments; and candy. Inventories and Credit Department store inventories in the Fifth District reached a peak in August 1953. Between then and February 1954 inventory liquidation amounted to 13% ; since February inventories have trended upward (sea sonally adjusted), with a gain of nearly 7% between February and September. Outstanding orders, which were sharply down from m id-1953 to early 1954, have shown some improvement. It appears that the inven tory accumulation this year has been required for cur rent sales purposes. Although the trend of instalment sales in District stores has been downward, these have been more than offset by the rise in other credit sales. Cash sales have been maintained at a relatively stable level. Instalment receivables, which rose substantially between the Sum mer of 1952 and the middle of 1953, have since leveled off. Open book credit has continued to trend upward but at a much slower rate than that in vogue between 1950 and 1952. N o dangerous situation appears in de partment store credit since collection ratios have been maintaining a steady pace for the past two years. On the other side, sales declines for nine months of 1954 compared with 1953 were found in laces, trim mings, embroideries and ribbons, with a slide of 13% - 6 ! y October Call Report 77' i f t h D i s t r i c t member banks, participating in the JL apparent improvement in general business condi tions during the third quarter of this year, set new rec ords in nearly all of their asset and liability accounts. On October 7 * assets of these banks totaled $7,534 million, and current indications are that the rate of increase over the past quarter will continue to year’s end and thus set another banking record. The following charts show the amounts held in the principal accounts of the District’s member banks on the selected dates. Time deposits, which continued their upward trek throughout the recent mild slump in business activity, advanced strongly in the third quarter 1954 and provid ed a good portion of the reserve strength needed to ac quire the additions to earning assets shown below. the year, continued high through the third quarter. The only category of bank loans experiencing a marked slowup in growth this year as compared with immediate past years was the consumer group. Consumer demands for all forms of credit, although at the highest level on record, failed to show the growth this year that might have been expected on the basis of past experience. A c tually the banks of the District, and the nation as a whole, made only slight additions to the record total of consumer credit outstanding. LOANS AND DISCOUNTS M illion September 30,1953 June 30, 1954 October 7, 1954 IO O O S September 30,1953 June 30, 1954 October 7, 1954 1500 2000 — i F M illion 4500 September 30,1953 June 30, 1954 September 30,1953 5500 -----1 X June 30, 1954 5000 J. October 7, 1954 2500 --- 1-- 3000 ---- 1 X X F Cash and bank balances at the District’s member banks fluctuated moderately in keeping with deposit changes during the year under review. Increases in reserve balances maintained with the Federal Reserve Bank accounted primarily for the over-all increase shown in the chart from June to October 1954. A l- r District member banks found the demand for com mercial and industrial loans in the late Summer and early Fall much stronger this year than in the same period in 1953. The banks were able to meet all the demands of qualified borrowers and in so doing raised total business loans outstanding by nearly 10% over the three-month period. Demand for real estate loans, which had remained fairly strong throughout the first half of CASH AND BANK B A LA N C ES M illio n June 30, 1954 October 7, 1954 i 7y 1000 S September 30,1953 ♦All October 7, 1954 figures exclude those for one member bank which joined the System since the June 1954 call date. 2000 S October 7, 1954 0 F X U. S. GOVERNMENT SEC U R IT IES DEMAND D EPO SITS S 2500 Holdings of Government securities showed a net rise of $145 million in the year ended October 7, 1954. Short-term Governments (bills, certificates, and notes), which had dropped almost 30% from September 1953 to June 1954, increased slightly after mid-year. Market able bonds increased at a fairly steady pace throughout the year. Demand deposits, in a moderate declining trend from September 1953 to mid-1954, increased sharply during the third quarter of this year. Deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations accounted primarily for the current increase although other categories of demand deposits also rose, especially those of other commercial banks and the United States Treasury. M illio n 2000 ---“ I TIME DEPOSITS M illio n 1500 S 3 C F ]f 1500 2000 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond though a reduction in reserve requirements became ef fective in this period, increased deposits called for larger balances. Deposits with other banks rose, on balance, over the year with the increase centered primarily in the period since m id-1954. District member banks raised their total capital ac counts by $38 million from September 30, 1953 to Octo ber 7, 1954, with almost half of the increase occuring since m id-1954. Additions to undivided profits account ed for two-thirds of the total capital increase. CAPITAL ACCOUNTS Million S 500 ~I— 1000 --- 1 — 1500 --- 1 September 30,1953 June 30, 1954 October 7, 1954 F ' What Farmers Face in 1955 (Continued from page 4) year. This may reflect farmers’ intentions to finish the testing job early or could be indicative of an increased turkey output in 1955. In the latter event, 1955-crop turkey prices are not likely to recover from current low levels. Broiler output in 1955 seems likely to continue high and may exceed this year’s record production. W ith an expansion in production, broiler prices next year are not likely to exceed those of 1954. Dairy Products F or dairying, which accounts for 11% of the Dis trict’s farm income, 1955 seems to offer “ more of the same.” The expected level of milk production will be one about equal to that of 1954. Farmers will begin the year with about as many cows as a year earlier; rate of output per cow will probably be near that of 1954; and it seems probable that many farmers will emphasize the dairy enterprise in an effort to maintain their total cash receipts. Domestic demand should continue strong and may, in fact, increase. This would imply that the surplus of dairy products may be smaller than in either of the two previous years. W ith some surplus still present, it is likely that milk and butterfat prices will be governed by support levels most of the time. This means that prices received by farmers will probably average about the same as in the last nine months of 1954. Unit costs of producing milk and butterfat are also expected to change little in the coming year. Meat Animals On the whole, income from the major meat animals— beef cattle provide 5% of District farm income and hogs 6 % — is expected to be well maintained in 1955. Production of hogs will probably increase, though the rate of expansion will be slower than in 1954. Cattle production, however, seems to be on a downswing, and over-all totals should, therefore, change little. Demand for meat is expected to continue strong, which means prices of meat animals should average about the same as this year. The major difference will be in the price of hogs which will remain more in line with— and possibly below— prices in recent months than with the high level of last Spring. Generally, hog prices in 1955 will have an average relationship to the price of corn and will thus permit average profits to be made. “ Not much change” is the price outlook for beef cattle. Prices of higher grade fed cattle show signs of being maintained roughly at or near current levels. Fairly satisfactory profits in feeding should be realized, therefore. However, with feeder cattle costing more and the price of feed probably averaging higher, profits will be lower than in 1954 though much better than in 1953. / fo flM December 1 954 fy $ & H £ W L Business Conditions and Prospects u s i n e s s people in the Fifth Federal Reserve Dis trict are in an optimistic frame of mind and are anticipating improved business levels. Their optimism does not appear to be exuberant and they apparently look for improvement on a more modest scale. There are few, indeed, willing to bet on price rises and profits via the inventory accumulation route— and there are many who sense solid improvement in the economy. October’s rising trend of business activity in the Fifth District was in large part responsible for the improve ment in business sentiment. Data for that month point to a broad recovery in business activity. Bits of evi dence here and there suggest strongly that improved sentiment and business volume continued in November. Construction A ctiv ity The construction industry, based on District contract awards in October, went on a spree. In that month the value of construction contract awards was nearly three times higher than the 1947-49 average. October figures were 59% higher than September’s, after seasonal ad justment, and 55% higher than in October 1953. In the apartment and hotel sector awards were 16% below September and 52% below October last year. Awards for one- and two-family houses moderated somewhat as the adjusted figure for October fell 6% below Septem ber, but the ten months’ totals were up 4 2% . Unusually sharp rises occurred in commercial, factory, and public works and utility awards during the month which placed them well ahead of a year ago and brought the ten months’ accumulation (in all save manufacturing construction) ahead of last year’s high level. Com mercial construction, already at a high level, showed an increase of 34% over October last year and the ten months’ accumulation was up 33% . Factory construc tion awards vaulted 332% over October last year, and raised the ten months’ total to within 12% of last year’s figure. Public works and utilities awards were up 128% over last year, but the ten months’ total was bare ly 1% ahead. These increases in construction contract awards are somewhat startling and despite their pleas ant, stimulating effects, raise serious doubts as to their substainability over the long run. Trade Trends Department store sales (with new stores and expan sions excluded) showed super-seasonal increase of 6% from September to October, with the latter month 3% ahead of October last year. Retail furniture store sales made an even more spectacular recovery and gained 19% between September and October, to bring the October figure 1% ahead of a year ago. Household appliance store sales showed a seasonal rise of 4 % from September to October although the October level was 5% under last year. Latest available information on gasoline consumption in the District shows that the up trend ceased during 1954; the latest month was about even with a year ago and the year’s accumulation 1% ahead of a year ago. Interestingly, the improvement in adjusted depart ment store sales from September to October came main ly in instalment and open credit sales, both of which showed a larger increase than total sales. Outstanding orders of department stores rose 1% more than seasonal during the month of October and were 4 % higher than a year ago. Department store inventories rose 4% more than seasonal during October and were 2% higher than a year ago. The super-seasonal rise in sales of retail furniture stores was mainly in credit sales, where the increase over September was 2 3% , although cash sales also in creased 12%. Relative to a year ago credit sales were up 4 % and cash sales down 2 2% . Furniture store in ventories rose 3% more than seasonal during October but were 7% smaller than October last year. M anufacturing A ctiv ity Manufacturing in the Fifth District showed a modest recovery from August to September, based on manhours, with three States showing increases in this period and two showing declines. The August-September re covery was due to general increases in nondurable goods industries; only Maryland suffered a setback in this period. Durable goods industries showed another small loss from August to September in the aggregate, al though Virginia showed a small increase. From September to October, man-hours in all manu facturing industries in Virginia and North Carolina showed a further increase, with both durable and non durable goods responding to the upturn. Although man-hours worked in durable goods industries of V ir ginia and North Carolina in October were still 3.2% under a year ago, their nondurable goods industries stood slightly (.3 % ) higher than a year ago. The trade level in October showed considerably more than seasonal improvement except at the automotive level, where information is sparse. For September, however, all States in the District and the District of Columbia showed new passenger car registrations down 8% from August and 14% from a year ago, but there were sharp variations between individual States. Rela tive to a year ago, the District of Columbia showed Sep tember new-car registrations up 13% and Maryland up 4% ; other States were down from 17 to 53% . i 9} Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Banking Developments The only industries where an improved level of opera tions was not witnessed from September to October in Virginia and the Carolinas was in food and kindred products, paper industries, and the apparel industries in Virginia. The food industries’ decline was less than 1 % ; normally, a somewhat sharper seasonal downturn occurs at this time of the year. The paper industries usually begin their seasonal decline in November. Total loans and investments of all member banks in the Fifth District rose $146 million from September 29 to October 27 and rose $443 million during the twelve months ended October 27. Loans and discounts ex panded $18 million during the month and $198 million during the year, while holdings of U. S. Government securities increased $123 million during the month and $193 million during the year. Other security holdings were up $7 million during October and $53 million during the year. In the District’s furniture industry (concentrated in Virginia and North Carolina) man-hours worked in October were 5.9% above September and 4.5% higher than in October 1953, although October 1953 was down considerably from the peak level. Total deposits rose $198 million during October and $473 million during the year. Demand deposits ac counted for $187 million of the October rise and time deposits $11 million. Over the twelve months demand deposits accounted for $281 million of the increase and time deposits $192 million. Textile mill products industries showed an increase in man-hours from September to October of 3.1% in V ir ginia and North Carolina. The two States showed manhours 1.5% higher in October than a year ago but again October of last year was considerably down from the peak. Knitting mills operations have recovered substantially. The September-October gain in Virginia and North Carolina was 2.3% ; October was 4.7% ahead of last year and within striking distance of the peak established in March 1953. Both full-fashioned hosiery and seam less man-hours (N orth Carolina) were ahead of a year ago, with full-fashioned up 4.2% and seamless up 11.3%. Operations in the apparel industries in the two States were up 1.4% during October (due to a 5.3% gain in North Carolina) but off 3.8% from October 1953. This level reflects considerable improvement over operations earlier in the year. The paper industries in the two States showed a reduction of 2.4% in man-hours from September to October and a reduction of 3.5% from October 1953, with both States showing decreases in each period. Some improvement was noted in the chemical industries in October, both States combined showing an increase of 1 .7 % ; they were, however, 9.9% under October last year, due largely to a 13% reduction in Virginia. This may be attributed to the rayon and acetate industries which have improved opera tions sharply since early 1954. Member bank borrowings decreased $700,000 during October and were off $33 million in the twelve-month period. Bank debits in October remained at the same season ally adjusted level as in September but were 2% higher than in October 1953. In the first ten months of the year, debits were at the same level as a year ago. The annual rate of demand deposit turnover of all reporting banks in the District was 20.0 in October, compared with 20.2 in September and 20.9 in October 1953. Turnover in Washington, D. C., and many of the lead ing textile centers was higher than a year ago. Agriculture Prices received by farmers in Fifth District States declined from September to October from 0.7% in North Carolina to 3.0% in W est Virginia. South Car olina farm prices were up 5.6% from a year ago but other States showed losses ranging from 3% in North Carolina to 8.9% in W est Virginia. Nationally, farm prices eased off 1.6% during October and stood 2.8% under a year ago. i io y // f o n l $ £ / F if t h D e D is t r ic t c e S t a t is t ic a l F IF T H D IS T R IC T IN D E X E S New passenger car registra tion* _________________________ Bank debits ___________________ Bituminous coal production* _ Construction contracts _______ Business failures— n u m b e r ___ Cigarette production__________ _ 149 88 298 149 Oct. 1953 125 149 79 188 207 101 110 115 107 90 171 e r 1 954 D ata Oct. 1954 % Chg.— Sept. 1954 b B U IL D IN G P E R M IT F IG U R E S Seasonally Adjusted: 1947-1949 = 100 Oct. 1954 m Latest Mo. Prev. Yr. Mo. Ago 156 146 92 192 185 93 114 119r 111 106 163 — 7 0 + 11 + 59 —28 — 2 + 6 + 8 + 1 + 19 + 1 — 14 + 2 — 4 +55 — 19 — 2 + 3 + 4 — 5 + 1 + 6 Maryland Baltimore ____ $16,867,688 Cumberland __ 37,825 Frederick _____ 176,200 Hagerstown __ 290,715 Salisbury ____ 137,600 Oct. 1953 10 Months 1954 $ 3,257,095 79,750 171,185 153,243 45,709 10 Months 1953 $ 66,507,993 $ 71,010,575 608,676 566,990 1,159,106 2,161,452 2,598,484 2,152,545 1,391,251 968,856 Manufacturing employment*__ Furniture store sales _________ 107 Life insurance sa le s ___________ 172 * Not seasonally adjusted. Back figures available on request. Sales in October 1954 compared with Oct. Sept. 1953 1954 +44 +10 — 7 + 15 — 7 + 9 — 4 — 8 — 2 — 3 — 3 — 13 — 4 — 5 0 — 4 — 15 — 12 LINES Auto supplies ______ Electrical goods ____ Hardware__________ Industrial supplies . Drugs and sundries Dry g o o d s _________ Groceries Paper and its products Tobacco products______ Miscellaneous __________ District T o ta l________ 2 NA + 4 + 7 N A Not Available. Source: Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce. D E P A R T M E N T ST O R E O P E R A T IO N S (Figures show percentage changes) Other Rich. Balt. Wash. Cities Sales, Oct. ’54 vs Oct. ’5 3 __ + 3 Sales, 10 Mos. ending Oct. 31, ’54 vs 10 Mos. ending Oct. — 1 31, ’53 ____________________ Stocks, Oct. 31, ’54 vs ’53 _ Outstanding orders, Oct. 31, ’54 vs ’53 ________ +1 + 1 — 5 2 — 5 0 — 4 + 2 + 9 + 11.6 Md. —1 49.2 44.3 3 42.7 + 4 43.0 15.0 15.0 18.0 D.C. Va. W .V a. N.C. S.C. + 1 0 +4 + 7 — 6 501,949 76,208 3,057,467 8,882,661 1,790,227 6,564,912 11,135,467 2,056,869 8,024,427 North Carolina Asheville _____ C h a rlo tte ____ Durham ______ Greensboro ___ High Point __ Raleigh ______ Rocky Mount _ S a lis b u r y ____ W ils o n ________ Winston-Salem 314,238 2,146,680 398,158 800,860 1,468,427 460,788 173,404 95,955 120,000 1,584,680 249,408 1,300,628 1,048,856 748,696 354,676 1,119,762 608,550 228,255 68,600 906,396 3,195,459 19,370,438 5,148,191 9,417,630 5,196,342 12,013,816 2,494,698 1,643,084 2,433,950 11,042,334 3,063,765 28,475,588 6,097,224 8,889,735 4,424,175 19,539,664 4,175,185 1,937,184 1,692,531 7,737,399 177,293 1,022,515 853,074 168,500 195,076 1,213,588 321,350 78,405 2,609,558 8,487,584 6,937,374 2,318,629 4,808,178 7,970,163 4,859,492 877,700 4,184,593 3,687,255 47,050,037 64,512,274 $24,892,872 STATES Maryland Dist. of Columbia Virginia West V ir g in ia ___ North Carolina South Carolina District _____ — 2 + 32.0 + 1 — 1 + 3 Instalment receivables Oct. 1, collected in Oct. ’54 ___ . + 1 674,335 84,335 329,030 Dist. Totals — 1 Open account receivables Oct. 1, collected in Oct. ’54 ___ Sales, Oct. ’54 vs Oct. 0 3,264,955 3,340,662 3,900,406 1,993,044 15,348,504 1,643,350 6,332,638 16,328,126 14,325,207 1,801,402 Dist. of Columbia Washington __ 0 — 1 — 11 — 1 NA — 15 — 9 + 7 — 1 — — 5 — 15 2,532,824 2,087,352 8,427,997 2,602,900 11,832,937 1,846,636 5,768,263 26,367,182 10,070,363 2,059,040 South Carolina Charleston ___ Columbia ......... Greenville ____ Spartanburg _ Stocks on October 31, 1954 compared with Oct. 31, Sept. 30, 1953 1954 NA — 11 — 3 + 8 NA + 8 240,914 131,784 345,839 83,875 1,975,883 156,800 125,167 1,134,935 1,023,343 202,225 West Virginia _ Charleston __ Clarksburg___ Huntington _ W H O L E S A L E TRADE 103,618 114,653 256,555 255,452 493,395 155,950 271,830 1,361,584 1,089,623 592,890 District Totals ..$37,262,443 117 124 Virginia Danville ______ Hopewell ____ Lynchburg ___ Newport News Norfolk ______ Petersburg ___ Portsmouth __ Richmond ____ Roanoke _____ Staunton _____ 14.8 $302,457,928 $335,415,732 F U R N IT U R E S A L E S* (Based on Dollar Value) Percentage change with correspond ing period a year ago October 1954 10 Mos. 1954 — 11 — 5 — 7 -20 + 1 — 8 — 7 — 2 — 4 — 5 — 17 — 7 — 2 —6 IN D IV ID U A L CITIES Baltimore, Md. _____________________ — 11 — 2 — 4 — 5 Washington, D. C. ~ — 4 — 5 Richmond, V a . ................ ........ -1 4 -2 5 Charleston, W . Va. ___________ __ _ * Data from furniture departments of department stores as as furniture stores. i 11 V Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond F ifth D ist r ic t B a n k in g D E B IT S TO D E M A N D D E P O SIT A C C O U N T S* (000 omitted) Oct. Oct. 10 Months 10 Months 1954 1953 1954 1953 Dist. of Columbia W ash in gto n ______ $1,176,997 $1,111,041 $11,597,149 $10,796,980 Maryland B altim ore_________ 1,373,534 1,446,562 14,186,089 14,176,601 Cumberland _______ 23,756 23,581 237,511 251,280 Frederick _________ 22,030 23,886 223,156 233,618 H a g e r s to w n _____ 37,079 40,812 360,631 379,991 1,534,841 15,007,387 15,041,490 Total 4 C ities___ 1,456,399 North Carolina Asheville__________ 62,596 64,763 618,610 616,431 Charlotte__________ 362,264 382,749 3,509,369 3,659,288 D urham ___________ 116,983 147,150 965,675 1,089,439 Greensboro________ 133,359 122,050 1,201,807 1,189,358 High P o in t* * ____ 46,375 45,651 427,764 NA K in sto n ___________ 55,537 52,685 283,301 288,523 Raleigh _ _ _ _ ______ 214,577 226,642 1,912,057 1,911,097 W ilm in g to n ______ 49,688 50,915 472,374 475,292 Wilson ____________ 91,123 77,671 314,317 301,799 184,312 173,796 1,544,814 1,529,920 Winston-Salem ___ Total 9 C ities___ 1,270,439 1,298,421 10,822,324 11,061,147 South Carolina C harleston________ 73,982 79,556 736,978 785,100 C o lu m b ia _________ 179,864 181,254 1,663,898 1,610,233 Greenville _________ 130,366 111,669 1,111,246 1,119,854 Spartanburg _____ 75,985 80,409 642,447 670,623 Total 4 Cities ___ 460,197 452,888 4,154,569 4,185,810 Virginia Charlottesville ____ 33,291 30,946 316,361 281,643 Danville___________ 76,844 61,311 408,310 400,532 L ynchburg________ 49,611 52,945 491,583 489,620 Newport N e w s ___ 46,477 47,010 469,809 480,585 Norfolk ___________ 236,976 258,614 2,519,616 2,562,083 Portsmouth________ 32,806 31,442 320,999 306,854 Richm ond_____ __ _ 694,597683,739 6,164,609 6,211,225 Roanoke___________ 122,003127,427 1,166,345 1,218,970 Total 8 C ities___ 1,292,605 1,293,434 11,857,632 11,951,512 West Virginia 38,105 46,951 383,817 440,919 Bluefield__________ Ch arleston ________ 163,185 191,121 1,656,600 1,721,990 Clarksburg ________ 30,730 35,231 309,708 336,603 73,326 73,836 685,084 706,434 Huntington ______ Parkersburg _____ 30,278 34,483 298,967 309,399 Total 5 Cities ___ 335,624 381,622 3,334,176 3,515,345 District T o t a ls _____ $5,992,261$6,072,247 $56,773,237 $56,552,284 * Interbank and U. S. Government accounts excluded. ** Not included in District totals. N A Not Available. i S ta tistic s W EEKLY R E P O R T IN G M E M B E R B A N K S (000 omitted) Items Nov. 17, 1954 Change in amount from Oct. 13, Nov. 18, 1954 1953 Total L o a n s ____________________ $1,486,479** 674,424 Bus. & A g r i c .________________ Real Estate Loans ___________ 293,898 All Other L o a n s _____________ 536,544 — 3,469 + 17,399 + 3,884 — 24,571 + + + + Total Security H o ld in g s_______ 1,924,010 110,409 U. S. Treasury B ills _________ U. S. Treasury Certificates _ 91,113 U. S. Treasury N o t e s ______ 350,228 U. S. Treasury Bonds ______ 1,096,448 Other Bonds, Stocks & Secur. 275,812 — 2,213 — 229 — 10,828 — 3,595 — 1,395 + 13,834 +115,913 + 1,652 — 177,989 — 12,353 +262,207 + 42,396 Cash Items in Process of Col. _ 342,927 Due from Banks ________________ 197,148* Currency and Coin ____________ 79,771 Reserve with F. R. B a n k s_____ 561,317 Other A s s e t s ___________________ 63,334 Total A s s e ts __________________ 4,654,986 — 14,433 + 3,052 — 6,893 + 32,087 + 299 + 8,430 + 13,986 + 15,875 + 333 + 7,032 + 3,303 +243,448 Total Demand D eposits________ 3,547,067 Deposits of Individuals ______ 2,501,946 Deposits of U . S. Government 190,445 Deposits of State & Local Gov. 202,953 577,967* Deposits of B a n k s ___________ Certified & Officers’ Checks _ 73,756 — — + + + + 982 49,945 14,100 17,259 4,246 13,358 +191,318 + 54,115 + 33,637 + 38,078 + 65,309 179 + Total Time D eposits___________ — — — 8,444 7,389 1,055 + + 14,300 1,040 + 2,516 + 8,430 Deposits of Individuals______ Other Time Deposits _________ 736,110 651,655 84,455 Liabilities for Borrowed Money 14,300 All Other Liabilities____________ 56,953 Capital Accounts ______________ _ 300,556 Total Liabilities _______________$4,654,986 * Net figures, reciprocal balances being eliminated. ** Less losses for bad debts. 12 y + + + 87,006 35,256 28,391 25,471 59,777 52,980 6,797 — 36,200 + 7,778 + 20,775 +243,448 Monthly Review Index For FEDERAL The RESERVE Year BANK 1954 OF RICHMOND T he first n u m b er d en otes the issu e and the secon d n u m b er the p a g e o f the issu e. T h e issu es are n u m b ered fr o m 1 to 12, sta r tin g w ith J a n u a ry. AGRICULTURE Agriculture— Area of Continuing W eakness in 1954 -8 :6 District Dairy Progress R e v ie w e d ___________________3:6 Farm M ortgage D ebt at R ecord L e v e ls _____________ 7:5 Farm Real Estate— A Complicated Price Problem ------------------------------ 9:3 W h at Farmers Face in 1955 ------------------------------------12:3 C h a r ts : Farm C o s t s -------------- -------------------------------------- ------— 12:3 Farm Incom e ------------------------------------------------------------12:1 Farm Land Prices and Incom e ____________9:1, 9:3, 9:4 M ilk Used and Marketed by F a rm ers------------------------3:6 BANKS AND BANKING Bank Lending— Stability at a H igh Level --------------- 5:7 Bank Lending— The Pace is Slower in ’5 4 ---------------3:5 Call Report, April— Implications are Favorable for ’5 4 ------------------------- --------------------------- 6:6 Call Report, O ctober ------------------------------------------------12:7 Cash at W ork ----------------------------------------------------------10:7 Demand D eposit Ownership in the Fifth D is tr ic t-----7:7 District Banking— First Half 1954 -----------------------------9:5 District Banking— 1953 was a Busy Year -----------------3:3 Par List, Additions t o ------- -------------------------------------- 6:12 Side Effects of Treasury Operations— Important to Banks -------------- ------------------------------- 11:7 C h a rts: Asset Structure of M ember B a n k s_________________ 10:7 Bank B orrow ings from Federal, Member Banks — _1:3 Bank Capital, M ember Banks --------------------------------- 12:7 Bank D e b it s ________________________________ 6:2, 8:3 , 9:2 Bank Reserves, M ember Banks _______________ 1:3, 11:7 Cash and Bank Balances, M ember Banks -------- 6:6, 12:7 Deposits, Demand, M ember Banks ___6:6, 7:7, 7:8, 12:7 Deposits, Tim e, M ember Banks ------------------------------ 12:7 ..3:1 Earnings, M ember Banks Loans, M ember Banks -----------------3:5, 5:7, 6:6, 8:4, 12:7 Securities, United States Government, M ember B a n k s------------------------------------------------6:6, 12:7 S ta tistica l T a b le s : Assets and Liabilities, 50 Reporting M ember B a n k s_______ 1:10, 2:11, 3:12, 4:12, 5:12, 6:12, 7:12, 8:10, 9:12, 10:12, 11:12, 12:12 Assets and Liabilities, M ember Banks ---------------3:4, 9:6 Assets, Earnings, M ember Banks ----------------------3:4, 9:6 Bank D e b it s ____________ 1:10, 2:11, 3:12, 4:12, 5:12, 6:12, 7:12, 8:10, 9:12, 10:12, 11:12, 12:12 Deposits, Demand, M ember Banks -------------------- 7:7, 7:8 Earnings and Expenses, M ember Banks ----------- 3:3, 9:5 BUSINESS CONDITIONS Business Conditions and Prospects __1:9, 2:10, 3:9, 4:9, 5:9, 6:9, 7:9, 9:9, 10:9, 11:9, 12:9 Fifth District E con om ic A ctivity— A Midyear Roundup ______________________________ 8:1 C h a rts : Business Failures ______________________________ 6:2, 12:2 Business Incorporations, N e w ______________________ 11:2 S ta tistica l T a b le s : Selected Indexes .1:11, 2:12, 3:11, 4:11, 5:11, 6:11, 7:11, 8:9, 9:11, 10:11, 11:11, 12:11 CONSTRUCTION Construction ____ 2:6 Private Construction Boom , The—Happy Anom aly __________________________________ 6:3 C h a rts: Building Contract Awards, C om m ercia l__5:2, 10:2, 12:2 Building Contract Awards, One and T w o Family H o u s e s _____________ ___ ____ 5:2 Building Contract Awards, Total ____________ 3:2, 8:5, 10 :2, 11 :2, 12:2 Building Contracts Awarded, By T y p e ______________ 2:6 Building Permits ___________________________________ 11:2 Private Construction _______________________ 6:1, 6:3, 6:4 S ta tistica l T a b le s : Building Permit Figures ____ 1:11, 2:12, 3:11, 4:11, 5:11 6:11, 7:11, 8:9, 9:11, 10:11, 11:11, 12:11 DEBT Farm -M ortgage D ebt at R ecord Levels - ____________7:5 EM PLOYM ENT Manufacturing Em ploym ent ________________________2:9 C h a rts: Em ployment, M an ufacturin g_____ 1:2, 2:9, 7:2, 9:2, 11:1 Em ployment, Nonagricultural _______________________ 2:1 FINANCE, PUBLIC Constitutional Limitations on State D ebt __________11:5 State and Local Bond Financing in 1953 ____________ 4:5 S ta tistica l T a b le s : State and Municipal Bond Offerings .4:6 MONTHLY REVIEW INDEX FOR THE YEAR 1954 FINANCE, TREASURY M IN IN G Federal Revenue Collections in the Fifth D is t r ic t___4:3 Finance in 1953— W ide But Orderly F lu ctu a tion s___1:3 Side Effects of Treasury Operations— Important to Banks ______________________________ 11:7 Treasury Financing— Expanded Activity is in P r o s p e c t_________________ 6:7 Bituminous Coal _____________________________________2:7 C h a r ts : Bituminous Coal Production __________1:2, 7:2, 9:2, 12:2 Bituminous Coal, Demand __________________________ 2:7 N E W S B R IE F S C h a rts: Fifth District News B r ie fs _______ 3:8, 4:7, 5:8, 9:8, 11:6 Federal Revenue Collections, Fifth District ____ 4:1, 4:3 Treasury Bill Rate __________________________________ 1:1 Treasury Operations, Influence on Bank Reserves ..11:7 Treasury Securities _________________________________ 6:8 The Fifth District Goes to T ow n — A n Urban-Suburban Trend _________________________7:3 C h a rts: S ta tistica l T a b le s : Federal Revenue Collections, Fifth District ________ 4:4 Fifth District Urban Centers _______________________ 7:1 S ta tistica l T a b le s : FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS The M oney L e n d e rs _________________________________ 5:3 C h a rts: Population, Percentage Increase in ________________ 7:4 Urban Population, Distribution by Size of P la c e ____ 7:3 R E T A IL T R A D E Farm -M ortgage D ebt H eld by M ajor Lenders -7:5, 7:6 Loans and Investments, H eld by ____________________5:5 M ortgage Loans, Held b y ___________________________ 5:3 Principal Institutional Lenders ______________________ 5:1 U. S. Government Securities, H eld by ______________ 5:4 INCOME Incom e Payments __________________________________ 10:3 C h a rts: M ajor Sources of Incom e Payments ______________ 10:1, 10:4, 10:5, 10:6 S ta tistica l T a b le s : Total Incom e Payments to Individuals P O P U L A T IO N -10:3 Department Store Sales _______________________ 2:2, 12:5 Markets M ove to the C u stom er_____________________ 9:7 C h a r ts : Car R eg istration s____________ 3:2, 4:2, 5:2, 6:2, 8:11, 9:2 Department Store— Instalment Receivables ___ _____ 7:2 Department Store— Outstanding Orders ____________ 5:2 Department Store Sales _________ 2:2, 3:2, 4:2, 7:2, 10:2 Cotton W ash G o o d s ______________________________ 8:11 M ajor H ousehold Appliances ____________________8:11 Gasoline C on su m p tion ______________________________ 11:2 Household Appliance Sales _________________________ 4:2 Retail Furniture Inventories ________________________ 5:2 Retail Furniture S a le s ____ 3:2, 4:2, 8:11, 10:2, 11:2, 12:2 S ta tistica l T a b le s : INSURANCE, LIFE C h a r ts: L ife Insurance Sales _________________ . 6:2 MANUFACTURING Apparel Manufacturing ______________________________ 2:4 Cigarettes -------------------------------------------------------------------1:5 Cotton Textiles ______________________________________2:5 Durable Goods Industries, The ____________________11:3 F ood and Kindred P r o d u c ts _________________________ 2:3 Manufacturing Em ploym ent ____ ____________________2:9 Manufacturing Progress in the Fifth District ______ 1:7 N ew and Fast-G row ing Industry in North Carolina, A _______________________________ 5:6 Rayon and A c e ta te __________________________________ 1 :6 Transportation E q u ip m en t__________________________ 2:8 Department Store Operations ____ 1:11, 2:12, 3:11, 4:11, 5:11, 6:11, 7:11, 8:9, 9:11, 10:11, 11:11, 12:11 Retail Furniture Sales ....1:11, 2:12, 3:11, 4:11, 5:11, 6:11, 7:11, 8:9, 9:11, 10:11, 11:11, 12:11 TRUST ACCOUNTS, TREASURY Uncle Sam— Trustee ___________________________ 8:7 C h a r ts : U. S. Government Securities, H oldings o f ______ 8:7, 8:8 UTILITIES C h a rts: Electric Pow er Production .7:2, 10:2 W H O LESA LE TRADE C h a rts: Charts: A p p a r e l_________________________________________ _____ 2:4 Cigarettes ---------------------------------------------- 1:2, 1:5, 6:2, 9:2 C o t to n ____________ 1:2, 2:5, 3:2, 7:2, 9:2, 10:2, 11:2, 12:2 Em ployment, M an ufacturin g_____ 1:2, 2:9, 7:2, 9:2, 11:1 F ood _________________________________________________ 2:3 H osiery __________________________ ___ ______________ 8:11 M an-H ours, Per Cent Change ----------------------------------8:2 Rayon and A c e ta te __________________________________ 1:6 Transportation Equipment __________________________ 2:8 D ry G oods S a le s __________ .3:2, 5:2 D rug Sales ________________ ___ G rocery Sables--------------------------------------------------------------1:2 Hardware S a le s _________________________________ 1:2, 4:2 Industrial Supplies S a le s ___ —.______ ....___ ....__________4:2 Paper and Products __________________ ...____ _________ 6:2 8:11 S ta tistica l T a b le s : W holesale T r a d e ______ 1:11, 2:12, 3:11, 4:11, 5:11, 6:11, 7:11, 8:9, 9:11, 10:11, 11:11, 12:11