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MONTHLY REVIEW o f Financial and Business Conditions F ifth Federal , Reserve D is tr ic t , Federal Reserve Bank Richmond Va. December 31, 1939 Summary of November Business Conditions R A D E and industry in the Fifth Federal Reserve district were both quite active in November, and practically all figures were better than November 1938 figures. A number o f indicators showed some recessions from October levels, but these were seasonal develop ments in nearly all instances. Debits to individual accounts in 25 cities, reflecting transactions through the banks, were 10 per cent above November 1938 debits, every city showing an increase for the first time in over two years. Loans and invest ments in reporting member banks both increased during November and were higher than a year ago. Demand deposits also registered gains for the month and the year. operations at high levels and consumed more cotton than in any other month on record except March 1937. Rayon mills operated at capacity, but shipments again exceeded production for the seventh consecutive month, and re serve stocks o f yarn fell to about a week’s supply. Coal production, while declining slightly from the unusually high October level, exceeded November 1938 output by 19 per cent. Tobacco manufacturing was off in certain lines, but in cigarettes, o f which the Fifth district makes approximately 80 per cent, there was a gain o f 7 per cent. T E M P L O Y M E N T CO N TIN U ES U PW A RD Employment rose during November and the first half o f December, seasonal additions to retail sales forces more than offsetting some decline in outside work. In dustrial employment on the whole was about the same as in October, but was substantially better than in the final months o f 1938. Construction provided for in November permits issued and contracts awarded was less than in October, probably due to seasonal influences. Permits exceeded those for November 1938 by 33 per cent, but contract awards last month were 35 per cent less than a year ago. The de cline in contracts reflects a reduced volume o f publicly financed projects. R E T A IL A N D W H O LE SA LE SALES L A R G E In distributive lines, November’s record was substan tially better than that o f November 1938. Department store sales showed an increase o f 11 per cent, retail furniture sales rose 17 per cent, and wholesale trade showed an average gain o f 16 per cent in about a dozen lines. Sales o f new passenger automobiles in November exceeded November 1938 sales by 11 per cent, in spite o f the absence of one leading manufacturer from the market. Industrial advances made in September and October were held in November. Cotton textile mills continued BUSINESS Debits to individual accounts (25 cities)....... Sales, 31 department stores, 5th district......... Sales, 36 furniture stores, 5th district........... Sales, 178 wholesale firms, 5th district........... Registrations, new autos, 5th district............. Tobacco sold in 5th district (P ou n ds)........... Growers’ receipts from tobacco, 5th district.. Average price of tobacco, per 100 pounds....... Number o f business failures, 5th district..... Liabilities in failures, 5th district................... Value of building permits, 31 cities................. Value o f contracts awarded, 5th district....... Cotton consumption, 5th district (B ales)..... Cotton price, cents per lb., end of month......... Print cloths, 38^2 in., 64x60s, end of month.... Rayon yarn shipments, U. S. (Pounds)....... Rayon yarn stocks, U. S. (P ou nds)............... Bituminous coal mined, U. S. (T o n s )........... STATISTICS— FIFTH FEDERAL RESERVE November 1939 $1,351,579,000 $ 11,391,091 1,316,057 $ $ 10,724,000 17,380 260,664,844 44,258,844 16.98 30 289,000 $ 8,947,654 $ $ 24,056,000 341,096 9.92 5.13 32,900,000 7,500,000 42,835,000 $ $ DISTRICT October 1939 $1,412,426,000 $ 11,330,531 1,462,045 $ $ 11,450,000 15,260 305,771,128 48,240,022 15.78 47 750,000 $ $ 14,032,486 $ $ $ 28,276,000 320,999 9.09 5.50 34,100,000 9,400,000 45,950,000 80,196,905 16,640,044 20.75 51 320,000 6,729,179 % Change Month Year — 4 + 10 + 1 + 11 — 10 4- 17 — 6 + 16 + 14 + 11 — 15 +225 — 8 +166 — 18 + 8 — 36 — 41 — 61 — 10 — 36 + 33 36,928,000 287,585 8.47 4.50 21,700,000 40,000,000 35,925,000 — 15 + 6 + 9 — 7 — 4 — 20 — 7 November 1938 $1,233,406,000 $ 10,248,481 $ 1,127,845 9,251,000 $ 15,638 $ $ $ $ $ — + + + + — + 35 19 17 14 52 81 19 MONTHLY REVIEW 2 GOVERNMENT SECURITY HOLDINGS FURTHER REDUCED The Reserve System further reduced Government se curity holdings between November 15 and December 15, and accordingly holdings at the Richmond bank declined by $5,158,000. Circulation of Federal Reserve notes, on the contrary, rose by $5,170,000 during the same period, a seasonal increase, and cash reserves also increased mod erately. Member bank reserve deposits were practically the same at mid-December as a month earlier. RESERVE BANK STATEMENT ITEMS Fifth District ITEMS Discounts held ............................................... Foreign loans on gold.................................. Open market paper...................................... Industrial advances .................................... Fovernm^nt securities ................................ Total earning assets................................ Circulation of Fed. Res. notes................. Members’ reserve deposits......................... Cash reserves .................................... ............ Reserve ratio ................................................. 000 omitted Dec. 15 Nov. 15 Dec. 15 1939 1939 1938 $ 109 $ 256 $ 157 208 142 0 0 0 24 950 1,007 1,485 129,904______135,062______120,321 $131,171 $136,467 $121,987 230,718 225,548 209,172 279,816 279,791 223,376 426,704 417,333 376,240 76.58 75.94 76.59 LOANS AND INVESTMENTS RISE SELECTED ITEMS— 41 REPORTING BANKS Fifth District Loans and discounts.................................... Investments in securities............................ Reserve bal. with F. R. bank................. Cash in vaults .............................................. Demand deposits .......................................... Time deposits........................................ . . . . Money borrowed .......................................... Dec. 13 1939 000 omitted Nov. 15 1939 $264,576 449,111 192,636 24,813 540,913 196,702 0 $260,721 437,513 185,381 20,406 535,113 201,392 0 STATES Maryland ............... Dist. of Columbia. Virginia ................. West Virginia . . . North Carolina . . South Carolina . . . 1.5 0.4 0.4 3.8 1.2 3.0 + + + + + + + + + + + + 1.3 0.3 1.5 69 21 6.0 DEBITS SHOW SE A SO N AL D ECLIN E Debits to individual accounts in November were 4 per cent below October, but exceeded those for November 1938 by 10 per cent. November debits are usually smaller than those in October, partly because October is a longer month and partly because many quarterly payments also are made. In comparison with November 1938 figures, every reporting city showed higher figures for November 1939, the first time all cities increased since April 1937. DEBITS TO INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS Fifth District 000 omitted Oct. Nov. 1939 1938 Nov. 1939 of Change Month Year % Maryland Baltimore ............. Cumberland ......... Hagerstown ......... $ 354,795 8,509 8,541 $ 386,664 8,859 9,571 $ 319,818 7,356 8,203 263,313 277,873 257,738 - 5 19,735 15,121 11,600 52,022 4,578 186,398 28,182 14,484 14,767 11,985 52,433 4,188 187,297 27,452 15,734 14,273 9,020 47,739 4,246 165,934 25,856 + 36 + 2 — 3 — 1 + 9 0 + 3 + 25 + 6 + 29 + 9 + 8 + 12 + 9 52,200 18,024 9,480 50,880 18,902 10,794 46,024 16,302 9,304 4- 3 — 5 — 12 + 13 + 11 + 2 11,855 66,978 40,469 22,802 43,386 10,997 45,559 13,006 71,940 44,114 19,879 45,851 11,571 45,857 11,670 55,111 36,482 18,091 40,951 10,258 43,596 — 9 — 7 — 8 + 15 — 5 — 5 — 1 + 2 + 22 + 11 + 26 + 6 + 7 + 5 17,760 28,338 19,711 11,226 $1,351,579 22,662 26,277 22,104 13,016 $1,412,426 16,458 25,354 18,392 9,496 $1,233,406 — 22 + 8 — 11 — 14 — 4 + - 8 — 4 — 11 + 11 + 16 + 4 Dist. of Col. Washington + 2 Virginia Danville ................ Lynchburg ........... Newport Ne ws . . . . Norfolk ............... Portsmouth ......... Richmond ............ Roanoke ............... West Virginia Dec. 14 1938 $242,824 426,905 149,180 21,492 476,614 195,305 0 MUTUAL SAVINGS DECLINE SEASONALLY In keeping with seasonal trend, deposits in 10 mutual savings banks in Baltimore declined last month from $220,944,398 on October 31 to $220,910,601 on Novem ber 30, but on the later date were above deposits totaling $218,613,489 on November 30, 1938. EMPLOYMENT CONTINUES UPWARD The number of workers employed in the Fifth dis trict increased in late November and the first half of December, but most of the increase was a temporary seasonal one caused by additions to employees in retail outlets to handle the holiday trade. Many stores carry ing holiday goods practically double their workers in December, and this year these additions more than offset some seasonal decline in workers engaged on outside projects. Industrial plants in November either increased operations further or held at recent levels, and coal min ing on a daily basis was at approximately the high rate of October. The following figures, compiled for the most part by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show the Percentage change from Oct. 1939 to Nov. 1939 in amount in number on payroll of payroll CITIES At 41 regularly reporting member banks in 12 Fifth district cities, both loans and investments rose between November 15 and December 13, and there was also a seasonal increase in cash in vaults. Demand deposits rose during the period, but time deposits declined. Time deposits usually decline somewhat during the holiday shopping season. ITEMS trends o f employment and payrolls in the Fifth district from October to N ovem ber: Charleston ........... Huntington ......... Parkersburg ......... North Carolina Asheville .............. Charlotte .............. Durham ................. Greensboro ........... Raleigh . . . . . . . . . Wilmington ......... Winston-Salem . . South Carolina Charleston ........... Columbia Greenville ............ Spartanburg District Totals . . INSOLVEN CIES AN D LIAB ILITIES 8 + 12 + .7 +18 + 10 DECLIN E Commercial failures in the Fifth district and the United States were reported by Dun & Bradstreet as follow s: PERIODS Number of Failures District U . S. Total Liabilities District U . S. November 1939 ..................... October 1939 .......................... November 1938 ..................... 30 47 51 886 916 984 ► 289,000 750.000 320.000 $ 11,877,000 16,140,000 12,302,000 11 Months, 1939................... .. 11 Months, 1938..................... 509 591 10,899 11,961 $5,817,000 7,118,000 $156,511,000 209,977,000 A U T O SALES CO N TIN U E TO RISE Sales o f 1940 automobiles rose further in November, in spite of the virtual absence o f one o f the leading manu facturers from the market. Registrations o f new pas senger cars in the Fifth district in November were 14 per cent above October registrations, and 11 per cent higher than those in November 1938. New cars have 3 MONTHLY REVIEW sold in such numbers that used cars traded in are be ginning to burden some dealers, although the market for used cars has also been relatively good. The following registration figures on new cars were furnished by R. L. Polk & C o.: tons in 1929 to the same date. Shipments o f coal through Hampton Roads to December 9 totaled 18,620,595 tons this year, 15,732,231 tons in 1938, and 20,898,452 tons in 1929. C O TTO N TE X TILE S A C T IV E REGISTRATION OF N E W PASSENGER CARS— NUMBER Nov. 1939 STATES Maryland ........... Dist. of Col. . . . Virginia ............. West Virginia . . No. Carolina . . . So. Carolina . . . District ........... 3,627 2,109 3,677 2,056 3,394 2,517 17,380 Nov. 1938 3,102 2,123 2,985 1,739 3,586 2,103 15,638 % Change + + + + + 17 1 23 18 5 20 11 11 Months 11 Months % 1939 1938 Change 35,693 23,521 38,342 20,808 40,714 23,005 182,083 + + + + + + + 23,904 15,801 27,438 14,726 28,155 13,755 123,779 49 49 40 41 45 67 47 BOTH PERM ITS A N D C O N TR A C TS DECREASE The value of building permits issued in 31 Fifth dis trict cities in November 1939 totaled $8,947,654, a de crease of 36 per cent under the unusually high total of $14,032,486 in October this year but an increase o f 33 per cent over $6,729,179 in November 1938. Washington reported the highest figure last month, $3,347,440; Balti more was second with $1,428,780; Charleston, W . Va., third with $1,200,161; Columbia fourth with $791,105; and Richmond fifth with $204,069. Permits issued in the first 11 months of 1939 totaling $114,216,748 show an increase of 42 per cent over permits totaling $80,222,225 issued in the first 11 months o f 1938. Contracts actually awarded for construction work in the district in November totaled $24,056,000. This rep resents a decline o f 15 per cent from contracts totaling $28,276,000 awarded in October, and a drop o f 35 per cent from $36,928,000 in November 1938. A consider able part o f the decrease from last year is due to a de cline in publicly financed projects, residential and indus trial work having held up better. Total contracts awarded in the first 11 months o f this year amounted to $355,113,000, an increase o f 23.5 per cent over $287,491,000 in awards in the corresponding period last year. Awards this year are higher than for any other year since 1929. Figures collected by the F. W . Dodge Corporation by states for November 1939 and 1938 on construction con tracts awarded are as follow s: CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AW ARDED STATES Nov. 1939 Maryland .......................................... $ 6,000.000 Dist. of Col........................................ 2,948,000 Virginia ............................................ 5,279,000 West Virginia ................. .............. 1,357,000* North Carolina ............................. 5,475,000 South Carolina ............................. 3,180,000 Fifth District ........................... $24,239,000 * Includes some contracts outside 5th district. COAL PRO D U CTIO N Nov. 1938 % Change $ 7,325,000 — 5,651,000 — 7,619,000 — 2,835,000* — 8,404,000 — 5,509,000 — $37,343,000_______ — DECLIN ES 18 48 31 52 35 42 35 SL IG H TLY Bituminous coal mined in November totaled 42,835,000 net tons, a decrease of 6.8 per cent below the high Octo ber output of 45,950,000 tons, but 19.2 per cent above 35,925,000 tons mined in November last year. On a daily basis, output o f 1,741,000 tons in November 1939 was only 1.5 per cent below daily production o f 1,767,000 tons in October this year. Total output of bituminous coal this calendar year to December 9 o f 361,897,000 tons compares with 317,966,000 tons in 1938 and 501,610,000 The cotton textile industry was very active in Novem ber, and continued at approximately the same high rate in the first half o f December. Sales in November slacked to some extent, but in December unfinished cloth and yarn sales increased sharply and substantially exceeded the large mill output. A fter declining somewhat in N o vember, cloth prices in December advanced with rising cotton prices. Consumption o f cotton in November in the Fifth district exceeded consumption in any other November, and was the second highest figure for any month on record. Cotton consumption figures in bales in Fifth district states in November 1939, October 1939, November 1938, and in the first 11 months o f this year and last are shown herewith: COTTON CONSUMPTION— FIFTH DISTRICT In Bales MONTHS No. Carolina So. Carolina Virginia 191,192 136,222 13,682 November 1939 ................... October 1939 ....................... 181,068 126,700 13,231 November 1938 ................. 156,212 118,756 12,617 11 Months, 1939 ................. 11 Months, 1938 ................. RAYON 1,768,660 1,397,379 SHIPMENTS A G A IN 1,308,616 1,083,755 132,683 128,146 District 341,096 320,999 287,585 3,209,969 2,609,280 EXCEED PRO D U CTIO N Shipments o f rayon filament yarn to domestic con sumers in November were slightly smaller than October shipments, but continued much larger than a year ago, and also exceeded production for the seventh consecu tive month. Shipments in November totaled 32,900,000 pounds, according to the December Rayon Organon, com pared with 34,100,000 pounds shipped in October 1939 and 21,700,000 pounds in November 1938. In the first 11 months o f 1939 shipments o f rayon yarn totaled 325,300.000 pounds, an increase o f 31 per cent over 247,900,000 pounds shipped in the corresponding period last year. Excess o f shipments over production in November re duced reserve stocks from 9,400,000 pounds to 7,500,000 pounds during the month. On November 30, 1938, re serve stocks totaled 40,000,000 pounds, and were up to 43.400.000 pounds as late as April 30, 1939. Further price increases were made as o f December 1 by several producers making 50 and 75 denier viscose process yarn. C O TTO N PRICES A T T W O -Y E A R HIG H Spot cotton prices on Southern markets, which had advanced sharply between the middle o f October and the middle o f November, rose further after that period to an average o f 10.92 cents per pound for middling grade on December 15, the latest date for which official figures are available. This price is the highest Friday average since August 6 , 1937, and compares with 9.51 cents a month earlier and 8.36 cents a year ago. The Department o f Agriculture's December cotton crop report lowered the estimate from 11,845,000 bales on November 1 to 11,792,000 bales on December 1. In the Fifth district, South Carolina’s estimate declined from MONTHLY REVIEW 4 895,000 bales to 870,000 bales during November, and North Carolina’s prospects dropped from 475,000 bales to 455,000 bales. Virginia was unchanged with 12,000 bales. COTTON CONSUMPTION AND ON HAND TOBACCO PRODUCTS MANUFACTURED Nov. 1939 Smoking & chewing tobacco, P ou nd s................. Cigarettes, Number ................. Cigars, Number ..................... Snuff, Pounds ............................ Nov. 1988 25,192,803 14,461,358,957 505,098,447 3,242,896 27,747,016 13,505,602,337 515,858,670 3,193,290 % Change —9 7 —2 + 2 + (Bales) Fifth district states: Cotton consumed . ................. Nov. 1939 Nov. 1938 341,096 287,585 Cotton growing states: Cotton consumed ................... 609,862 503,514 Cotton on hand Nov. 30 in Consuming establishments . . 1,561,499 1,514,193 Storage & compresses ........... 15,447,107 15,538,740 United States: Cotton consumed ....................... 718,721 596,416 Cotton on hand Nov. 30 in Consuming establishments . . 1,782,949 1,714,312 Storage & compresses ........... 15,484,508 15,591,629 Exports of cotton ......................... 583,644 480,384 Aug. 1 to Nov. 30 This Year Last Year 1,259,106 1,081,969 2,255,818 1,890,724 2,659,007 2,233,081 ................................ ........... ........... 2,337,825 Spindles active, U. S....................... 22,774,170 22,447,106 1,534,324 ......... ........... TO B A C C O SALES A B O V E SEASON AL LEV EL The tobacco markets being closed from early in Sep tember until October 10 threw sales later in the season, and November sales in the Fifth district totaled 260,664,844 pounds compared with only 80,196,905 pounds sold in November last year. The average price o f $16.98 per hundred pounds last month was 7.6 per cent better than the October average o f $15.78, but was 18.2 per cent below the November 1938 average of $20.75. Total sales this season to November 30 in the district amounted to 904,280,911 pounds, at an average of $15.78 per hun dred, compared with 651,201,439 pounds sold for $22.96 per hundred before November 30, 1938. The total re ceived by growers for this year’s crop prior to Decem ber 1 was $142,667,000, compared with $149,547,000 in 1938, both figures exclusive o f any special payments by the Federal Government. STATES South Carolina ......... North Carolina ......... Virginia (Flu* cured) (Fire cured) District ..................... Season through . . . Producers’ Tobacco Sales, Pounds November 1939 November 1938 947,392 208,358,063 50,350,071 1,009,318 260,664,844 904,280,911 0 51,746,353 27,430,448 1,020,104 80,196,905 651,201,439 Price per Cwt. 1939 1938 $11.62 17.20 16.29 10.81 16.98 15.78 $ 0 21.02 20.64 9.93 20.75 22.96 R E T A IL A N D W H O LE SA LE T R A D E DEPARTMENT STORE TRADE Net Sales Nov. 1939 comp, with November 1938 Richmond (3) . . . Baltimore (8) . . . Washington (6) . Other Cities (14> District (31) . . + 9.5 + 1 4 .4 + H *1 Same stores by states, with 26 stores added: Virginia (13) . . . + 1 2 .8 West Va. (10) . . + 1 3 .5 No. Carolina (8) . 4" 8.8 So. Carolina ( 12) + 1 2 .2 + + + + + 4.0 3.6 5.0 5.1 4.4 + + + 4.4 4.3 4.8 + 6.3 + 3.0 + 8.5 + 13.3 + 6.7 Ratio Nov. collections to accounts outstanding Nov. 1 + 5.1 + 5.1 + 7.7 + 16.1 + 7.3 35.0 33.6 30.3 30.9 32.0 +10.1 RETAIL FURNITURE SALES % Change in Sales, November and 11 Months 1939 STATES Compared with Nov. 1938 Compared with 11 Months 1938 Maryland, 10 stores ......... Dist. of Col., 7 stores . . . Virginia, 9 stores ............. North Carolina, 3 stores South Carolina, 7 stores District, 36 s to r e s ......... + 19 + 8 — 4 + 48 + 43 + 17 + 9 + 6 + 7 + 19 + 27 + 10 Individual Cities: Baltimore, 10 stores Columbia, 3 stores ........... Richmond, 4 stores ........... Washington, 7 stores + 19 + 56 — 15 + 8 + + — + 9 1 1 6 178 FIRMS Net Sales November 1939 compared with Nov. Oct. 1938 1939 LINES Auto supplies (7) ......... Shoes (4) .......................... Drugs (11) ....................... Dry Goods (8) ................. Electrical goods (7) . . . . Groceries (56) ................. Hardware (19) ............... Indus, supplies (12) . . . Plumbing & heating (6) Paper & products ( 7 ) . . Tobacco & products (7). Miscellaneous (34) ......... District Totals (178). TO B A C C O M A N U F A C T U R IN G DECLIN ES Production o f all types o f manufactured tobacco clined in November from October, due chiefly to shorter month. Figures for November this year and were released by the Bureau of Internal Revenue as lows : + 1 2 .5 +-H*9 Net Sales Stocks Jan. 1 to date Nov. 30, 1939 comp, with comp, with same period Nov. Oct. last years 1938 1939 + 2 + 24 4* 9 + 16 + 78 + 6 + 17 + 31 + 14 + 17 + 4 + 10 + 16 — 8 — 27 — 2 — 2 — 2 0 — 8 — 16 — 13 — 8 -|- 5 — 4 — 6 Stocks Ratio Nov. Nov. 30, 1939 collections compared with to accounts Nov. 30 Oct. 31 outstanding 1938 1939 Nov. 1 0 + + 5 2 + 6 0 + 47 + 12 + 14 — 5 — 3 + 17 + 12 — — — — + — 1 9 7 4 8 2 + 1 — 2 — 2 — 3 + *4 — 1 66 59 75 44 75 91 48 73 53 72 80 59 63 FIFTH D ISTR IC T CROPS de the last fol In the January 31, 1940, issue o f the Monthly Review we shall publish a table showing final 1939 crop yields for the several states in the Fifth Federal Reserve dis trict, in comparison with corresponding figures for some earlier periods. (Compiled December 21, 1939) MONTHLY REVIEW, December 31, 1939 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND SUMMARY OF NATIONAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS (Compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION F ollow ing’ a rapid rise a fter the outbreak o f the European w a r industrial activity continued at a high level in Novem ber and the first h a lf o f Decem ber. There w as a considerable increase in distribution o f com m odities to consum ers while prices o f basic com m odities, w hich had been steady durng Novem ber, rose som ewhat in the first tw o weeks o f Decem ber. PRODUCTION Index of physical volume of production, ad justed for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average = 100. By months, January 1934 to November FR EIG H T-C A R LOADINGS Index of total loadings of revenue freight, ad justed for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average =100. By months, January 1934 to November 19(39. The B oa rd’s seasonally adjusted index o f industrial production advanced from 121 to 124 per cent in N ovem ber, reflecting sustained activity at a period o f the year when a decline is usual. Production o f durable goods, w hich had advanced rapidly fo r several months, showed a fu rth er expansion. R ecord p ro duction o f steel ingots continued in Novem ber and w as follow ed by a less than seasonal decline in the first h a lf o f Decem ber. Autom obile production increased in N ovem ber, notw ithstanding the fa c t that plants o f one im portant com pany remained closed pending settlement o f an industrial dispute. A fte r this w as settled at the end o f Novem ber assemblies rose sharply. R etail sales o f new autom obils w ere in large volum e in Novem ber and at the end o f the month deal ers’ stocks o f new cars apparently w ere sm aller than at the corresponding time in other recent years. Lum ber production declined less than seasonally in Novem ber but plate glass production, w hich had reached a high level in October, showed a reduction. Output o f nondurable goods continued at a high level in Novem ber. A t cotton and w oolen mills a ctivity increased som ewhat fu rth er and w as close to the record levels reached three years ago. R ayon production advanced to new high levels but at silk m ills there w as a sharp decline follow in g substantial in creases earlier this fall. O utput o f flour and sugar declined fu rth er from the levels reached in September while changes in activity at shoe fa ctories and m eat-packing' establishments w ere la rgely seasonal in character. Coal production in N ovem ber declined som ewhat from the high level reached in October. Output o f crude petroleum increased fu rth er and iron ore ship ments continued in exceptionally la rge volum e until the G reat Lakes’ shipping • season closed in the latter part o f the month. Value o f construction contracts, as reported b y the F. W . D odge C orpora tion, increased in Novem ber follow in g a sharp decline in October. In both months changes in total aw ards reflected prin cip ally fluctuations in the volum e o f contracts fo r public construction. P rivate residential aw ards declined some what less than seasonally in November, w hile aw ards f o r other private projects showed little change. Contracts fo r private w ork, both residential and nonresidential, w ere larger than a year ago, w hile those fo r public projects w ere below the high level o f that time when contracts under the Public W orks A dm in istration program w ere being awarded in la rg e volum e. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS EMPLOYMENT F a ctory em ploym ent and pay rolls continued to increase in Novem ber, r e flecting chiefly fu rther sharp advances in industries producin g steel, m achinery, and other durable goods. DISTRIBUTION Indexes of value of sales and stocks, adjusted for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 average=100. By months, January 1934 to November 1939. In N ovem ber distribution o f com m odities to consum ers increased consider ably. The B oard’s seasonally adjusted index o f departm ent store sales, w hich had been around 90 in the three preceding months, advanced to 94, a level about the same as at the peak in 1937 w hen prices o f com m odities sold at departm ent stores w ere generally som ewhat higher than at present. F reigh t-car loadings showed less than the usual seasonal decrease from October to November and the B oard’ s adjusted index increased from 80 to 82, w hich w as only slightly under the recovery peak reached in the ea rly part o f 1937. Shipm ents o f ore and miscellaneous freig h t declined less than is usual in Novem ber, while loadings o f coal decreased m ore than seasonally fro m the relatively high October level. COMMODITY PRICES MONEY RATES IN NEW YORK C ITY P rices o f both industrial m aterials and foodstu ffs advanced fro m the latter part o f N ovem ber to the middle o f Decem ber. W heat and silk prices rose con siderably and there were sm aller increases in cotton and hides. P rices o f steel scrap and nonferrous metals, on the other hand, showed declines. GOVERNMENT SECURITY MARKET P rices o f United States T reasury bonds advanced sharply during the last h a lf o f N ovem ber to a level not fa r below the all-tim e high point o f last June and remained steady during the first h a lf o f December. BANK CREDIT For weeks ending January 6, 1934, to Decem ber 9, 1939. T otal loans and investm ents at reportin g m em ber banks in 101 leadin g cities rose substantially during N ovem ber and the first h a lf o f D ecem ber, re flecting la rgely purchases o f new United States Governm ent securities. Com m ercial loans, w hich had been increasing since A ugust, continued to rise until the third w eek in N ovem ber. D eposits increased fu rther.
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