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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND General Business and Agricultural Conditions in the Fifth Federal Reserve District By C ALD W E LL H AR D Y, Chairman and Federal Reserve Agent RICHM OND, VIRGIN IA, AU GUST 31, 1921. The letters and reports re better than the wholesale or ceived from business men manufacturing b u s i n e s s . CONTENTS throughout the Fifth Dis Building activity continues trict at the end of July were ahead of last year in permits Introduction more cheerful than those re issued for new construction Condition of Member Banks ceived for many m o n t h s . work. Unemployment has Debits to Individual Accounts Business has not yet shown not increased materially, and Business Failures Monthly Clearings very material advancement, signs point to increased need Labor but practically all our cor for workers in industrial Textiles respondents write that signs plants as business picks up. Foods Cotton prices have improved of a better future are abund Clothing Furniture during the past six weeks, ant. It is pointed out that Farmers’ Supplies largely on account of poor the textile business is stead Agriculture condition of this year’s crop, ily improving, with orders Coal inci easing for both immedi increased takings by domes Lumber tic mills, and a better pros ate delivery and future re Building Construction Wholesale Trade pective f o r e i g n demand. quirements. Collections con Retail Trade W ith the exception of about tinue surprisingly good in Miscellaneous half of South Carolina, pros view of the general depres pects for this year’s cotton sion, and clearing house and debits to individual account crop in this District exceed figures compare favorably with clearings and the low national average. General crop conditions debits o f last year if general price declines are do not promise normal yields, and reduced acreage remembered. Although the number of failures in cotton and tobacco indicate a limited production. reported by Dun’s Review for the Fifth District However, the present crops have been made more increased considerably in July, total liabilities in economically than for several years past, and with volved were 21.5% below liabilities in July, 1920. the apparent tendency towards an improvement in Retail trade in twenty-five department stores lo prices, it is hoped that net returns will materially cated in thirteen cities in the District continues help the final results. CONDITION OF SEVENTY-EIGHT REPORTING MEMBER BANKS IN SELECTED CITIES IT E M S August 10, 1921 1. Total Loan and Discounts (exclusive of rediscounts) ____________________ $ 2. Total Investments in Bonds and S e curities _____________________________ 3. Total Loans and Investm ents________ 4. Reserve Balance with Federal Reserve B a n k ______ ______ — __ -----5. Cash in Vaults_________________________ 6. Demand D e p o sits______________________ 7. Time Deposits ________________________ 8. Discounted with Federal R e s e r v e Bank _______________________________ * Includes some miscellaneous investments. 406,488,000 July 6, 1921 $ 406,911,000 August $ 6, 1920 436,715,000* 126.136.000 532.624.000 121.269.000 528.180.000 80,979,000** 567.694.000 30.811.000 14.526.000 292.615.000 116.967.000 32.855.000 15.543.000 299.492.000 116.198.000 37.325.000 16.347.000 341.393.000 111.048.000 67.704.000 72.144.000 79.084.000 ** Government Securities only. In the table given above, compiled from reports received from seventy-eight member banks, located in thirteen cities of the District, all items are comparable except numbers 1 and 2. Compar- ing the figures as of August 10, 1921, with those as of August 6, 1921, all items show decreases within the year except Item 7, Time Deposits, which increased from $111,048,000 to $116,967,000, a gain of 5.3%. Total Loans and Investments decreased between the two dates from $567,694,000 to $532,624,000, a decline o f 6.2% ; Reserve Balance with the Federal Reserve Bank decreased from $37,325,000 to $30,811,000, a decline of 17.5% ; Cash in Vaults decreased from $16,347,000 to $14,526,000, a decline of 11.1% ; and Demand Deposits decreased from $341,393,000 to $292,615,000, a decline of 14.3%. Dis counts and rediscounts with the Federal Reserve Bank for these city hanks decreased from $79,084,000 to $67,704,000, a decline of 14.4%. Comparing the August 10, 1921, figures with those as of July 6, 1921, increases are found in Total Investments in Bonds and Securities, and in Time Deposits, while decreases are found in Total Loans and Discounts, in Reserve Balance with Federal Reserve Bank, in Cash in Vaults, in Demand Deposits, and in Discounts and Rediscounts with the Federal Reserve Bank. DEBITS TO INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNT IN CLEARING HOUSE CENTERS C IT IE S I ^ or ; August 10, 1921 Baltimore, Md. __ _ _______ . _ $ Charleston, S. C._ . ________________ ! ____ _______ | Charlotte, N. C_______ Columbia, S. C. __ _ _ _ _ ___j Greenville, S. C — ____________ _ ________________ ! Huntington, W . Va._ Norfolk, Va. _ __ _________ _____________ ! Raleigh, N. C____________ ______________ ! Richmond, Va. _____ ____ _ ________ 1 Washington, D. C .~ __________________ | Wilmington, N. C_______________________ : f Totals for 9 cities _ _ _ _ _ Totals for 11 cities _ ___ i S J j W eeks Ending July 6, 1921 108,060,000 4,337,000 4,802,000 4,100,000 2,517,000* 4,527,000 11,852,000 3.700,000 21,885,000 33,362,000 4,261,000* $ 196,625,000 203,403,000 $ August 11, 1920 99,260,000 7.019.000 5.865.000 4.300.000 3,640,000* 4.540.000 13.888.000 4.350.000 26.505.000 41.357.000 5,039,000* $ 104,674,000 7.895.000 6.882.000 4.915.000 S~ 662 , m 22.557.000 4.100.000 22.768.000 32.983.000 '207,084,000 215,763,000 !$ 1 212,436,000 ____________ i * Not included in Totals for 9 cities. Debits to Individual Account in nine cities of the Fifth District totaled $196,625,000 for the week ending August 10, 1921, compared with $212,436,000 reported by the same cities for the corresponding week of 1920, a decrease this year of 7.4%. This is a smaller percentage decrease than was shown in the Federal Reserve Board's weekly press statement covering 154 of the leading cities of the country, that percentage decrease being 18.2%. Debits in Baltimore and Washington were larger during the wreek ending August 10, 1921, than during the corresponding week of 1920. A comparison of the totals reported from the nine cities for the week ending August 10, 1921, with those reported for the w^eek ending July 6, 1921, shows a decline during the first named week of $10,459,000, or 5.1%, a decrease largely accounted for by the fact that the week ending July 6, 1921, included the end-of-month and semi-annual payments made on July 1. In view of the volume of the July 1 transactions the decreased percentage during the week ending August 10, 1921, is small, and shows better business than might have been expected at this season of the year. Attention is called to the inclusion of the Washington, D. C., figures for both 1921 and 1920. BUSINESS FAILURES IN THE TW ELVE FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS Number City and District Liabilities Per Cent Increase 1920 Boston, F i r s t _____________________ New York, Second_______________ Philadelphia, T h i r d ______ _______ Cleveland, F o u r t h _______________ Richmond, Fifth ________________ Atlanta, S i x t h _________________ __ Chicago, Seventh _______________ St. Louis, E ig h t h ____ __ Minneapolis, N i n t h _____ ________ Kansas City, Tenth _ _________ Dallas, Eleventh ________________ San Francisco, T w e lfth ________ 94 230 72 167 124 138 222 94 27 48 114 114 48 172 29 54 39 32 70 28 14 34 41 120 95.8 33.7 148.3 209.3 217.9 331.3 217.1 235.7 92.9 41.2 178.0 5.0- $ Totals_______________________ 1,444 681 112.0 $ 42,774,153 - Denotes decrease in 1921. 1920 1921 1921 2,124,077 18,342,752 1,254,361 4,200,340 1,565,856 1,968,097 4,565,389 1,545,874 425,042 1,056,534 3,778,098 1,947,733 $ 470,259 11,438,511 755,711 921,988 1,995,635 443,135 2,417,401 96,040 238,471 548,910 1,148,614 1,431,738 $ 21,906,413 Per Cent Increase 351.7 60.4 66.0 355.6 21.5344.1 88.9 1,509.6 78.2 92.5 228.9 36.0 95.3 W e give herewith the table reported by Dun’s Review showing the number of failures in the twelve Federal Reserve Districts for July 1921 and 1920, with percentages of increase or decrease in both the number and the aggregate liabilities involved. The July number of failures is greater in the Fifth District than it was in March, May or June, but is lower than in January, February or April. July, 1921, witnessed 124 failures, compared with 39 during the corresponding month last year, an increase this year o f 217.9%. In liabilities involved, July, 1921, with $1,565,856, compares favorably with July, 1920, when liabilities amounting to $1,995,635 were reported, a decline for 1921 of 21.5%. In total liabilities July figures were lower than any previous month this year, except June. The percentage increase in number o f failures in July for the entire United States was 112.0%, and in liabilities 95.3%. The Fifth Federal Reserve District is therefore above the national average in number of failures but is below the national average in liabilities involved, it being the only district in which July, 1921, liabilities were lower than those reported in July, 1920. Average liability per failure in the United States in July was $29,560, and in the Fifth District was $12,628. MONTHLY CLEARINGS No.! 17 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 4,573,173 296,846,257 9,749,679 8,250,482 8,001,152 1,906,249 4,156,550 7,154,928 2,889,487 6,396,304 2,059,911 27,448,671 5,128,611 152,047,073 2,311,412 70,151,691 6,784,480 431,588,887 21,495,734 13,802,856 12,367,764 2,625,490 6,744,129 9,656,285 3,573,843 8,227,079 5,040,028 47,392,336 5,877,807 239,321,358 4,845,239 ____ 75,616,642 Per Cent of Increase | or Decrease 2,211,307— ~ 32.6— 134,742,63031.2— 11.746,055— 54.6— 5,552,374— 40.2— 4,366,612— 35.3— 719.241— 27.4— 2,587,579— 38.4— 2,501,357— 25.9— 684.356— 19.1— 1,830.775— 22.3— 2,980.117— 59.1— 42.1— 19,943,665— 749,196— 12.7— 3 6 .5 — 87,274,285— 52.3— 2,533,827— 5,464,951— 7.2— 609,071,630 $ 285,888,327— For Month of July C IT IE S 1921 I Asheville, N. C . ___ Baltimore, Md. ----Charleston, S. C. Charlotte, N. C . ___ Columbia, S. C . ___ Frederick, Md. ----Greensboro, N. C. . Greenville, S. C. Hagerstown, Md. Huntington, W . Va Newport News, Va Norfolk, Va. _____ Raleigh, N. C . _____ Richmond, V a . ____ Spartanburg, S. C. . W ashington, D. C. . Totals_________ $ 1920 $ 894,959,957 Increase or Decrease |n o . 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. | 6. | 7. i 8. j 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 31.9— — Denotes Decrease. The table above shows clearings in July, 1921, for sixteen important cities in the Fifth District, with comparative figures for July, 1920. The sixteen cities show clearings in July, 1921, amounting to $609,071,630, as compared with $894,959,957 in July, 1920, a decrease this year of $285,888,327, or 31.9%, the largest percentage decrease reported during any month of 1921 in comparison with the correspond ing month of 1920. The monthly percentage decreases reported during the first half of 1921, are as follows : January, 25.3% ; February, 19.4% ; March, 25.2% ; April, 24.9% ; May, 26.3%, and June, 29.7%. Attention is called to the inclusion of figures from Charlotte, N. C., for both 1921 and 1920. LABOR — The labor situation in the Fifth District did not change materially during July. The Public Employment Bureau in Richmond reported 716 calls for workers in July, against 606 calls in June, thus showing an increase in jobs available. Throughout the Fifth District consider able road and street improvement has given employment to unskilled workers, and increased activity in building lines has provided work for many mechanics. The textile mills around Charlotte, N. C., in which workers have been on strike since the first of June, are resuming operations and textile mills in general are adding to their forces as the demand for their product increases. On the other hand, many railroad employees that were released last fall and earlier this year continue idle, and likewise ship yard and dock workers have been reduced in number. The demand for women workers in industrial plants is at a low ebb, in contrast to July, 1920, when the demand for this type of worker was great. Farm labor is more plentiful than the demand. W ages of nearly all classes o f labor have been reduced. TEXTILES— Textile manufacturers agree that conditions in their business have improved during the past six weeks, and believe that liquidation in the textile industry is complete. Practically all mills in the District are running full time, and while their product is not sold far ahead, they are receiving sufficient orders to take their present output, and new orders are steadily increasing. Manufacturers o f ginghams and denims are sold ahead for several months. There has been a distinct tendency toward higher prices for textiles during recent weeks. FOODS — Developments in July and in the first half of August seem to indicate a break in the long decline in retail and wholesale food prices. A ccording to the monthly statistics of the Department o f Labor released August 17, retail food prices in the United States increased 2.7 per cent, in July over June, while the prices of wholesale foodstuffs advanced 1.5 percent and wholesale farm products 1.75 per cent. Retail prices were secured on 43 articles of which 16 showed increases. Decreases were noted in 23 articles. The general increases in reporting cities in the Fifth District were as follows : Baltimore and W ashington, 2 per cent,and Charleston S. C. and Richmond, 1 per cent. N orfolk reported a decrease of 1 per cent, being one of five cities in the country from which decreases were reported. July was the first month this year in which a nation-wide increase was shown, and since the July figures were gathered some further increases have been noticed, particularly in sugar prices which have risen approximately a cent a pound. The greatly reduced production of vege tables for canning has strengthened the market for canned goods, and has resulted in advances in wholesale prices quoted. CLOTHING — In retail clothing, July and early August were marked by the season’s usual reduction sales of summer merchandise. Three dollar shirts were sold for tw o dollars and fifteen cents, and twenty-dollar suits were sold for fifteen dollars and less. The reductions in ladies’ wear were even greater. Jobbers in dress goods report active demand for ginghams, percales, calicos, etc., but write that higher grade goods are in less demand. Manufacturers of clothing, middy blouses and shirts are fairly busy. A distinct improvement during the past tw o months is reported in the overall trade. Dry goods dealers in staple lines consider themselves in a stronger position and a marked tendency toward higher prices is noticed. FURNITURE — Furniture factories, after being closed since last fall, are starting up again on approximately full time, and are receiving a considerable number of orders. The situation is irreg ular, some factories receiving orders for all the goods they can manufacture, while others find retail ers reluctant in placing orders for future deliveries. The factory managers claim that they are making little profit at the present prices. The retail business is better than might be expected, and one group o f six large stores located in the Fifth District reports that their sales during the first half of 1921 practically equaled in dollar value those during the first half of 1920. In view of price reductions, the actual volume o f goods handled during this period wras 30 to 35% more than the volume handled for the same period of last year. FARMERS SUPPLIES — Retail dealers in mules, buggies, wagons and harness report that there is no trade to be had at any price. Implement dealers report practically no new business, but they write that their repair departments have been exceedingly active, and sales of spare parts for replacement good. This would seem to indicate that the farmers are trying to make their old machinery last through this year. Manufacturers of buggies and wagons state that business with them ceased to exist last October, and they strike the most pessimistic note sent us by reporters from any line of business. AGRICULTURE — Estimates of production made by the Department of Agriculture on August 1 show declines in every important crop, except sweet potatoes, hay, apples and peaches, as com pared with extimates on the July 1 crop condition. Estimates in which the Fifth District is most interested are as fo llo w s : United States Total Crops— Forecast, 9121 Crop Cotton (Bales) Tobacco (Pounds) Corn (Bushels) W heat (Bushels) - ___ . to 1-0 c\i CO 00 _ 64.5% 65.8% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Apples Com’l. (Bbls.) Peaches (Bushels) _ __________ ___________ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Oats (Bushels) Irish Potatoes (Bushels) Sweet Potatoes (Bushels) _ _ Hay (A ll Kinds) ( T o n ) ______ Condition August 1. 64.7% __________ 66.6% __________ 84.3% August 1 Condition 8,203,000 889,000,000 3,032,000,000 757,000,000 1,137,000,000 316,000,000 114,000,000 97,100,000 21.327.000 31.300.000 July 1 Condition 8,433,000 932,000,000 3,123,000,000 809,000,000 1,323,000,000 377,000,000 112,000,000 97,000,000 17.666.000 30.800.000 46,600,000 Five Year Average 1,272,000,000 2,798,000,000 831,000,000 1,433,000,000 371,000,000 84,700,000 103,400,000 The June 25 estimate of condition for cotton was 69.2% of normal, but the Department of Agriculture’s estimates as of July 25 give the condition on that date as 64.7%. The estimate of production was reduced from 8,433,000 bales to 8,203,000 bales. The July 25 condition of the crop is the lowest on record, according to Government reports. In the Fifth District specifically, most of the crop in South Carolina has suffered from excessive rain and ravages o f the boll weevil, but the Piedmont counties have good prospects for a normal crop. The Virginia and North Carolina crops are both well above the national average. It appears on the whole that the cotton crops of the Fifth District, with the exception o f about half of South C a r o l i n a , have been damaged less by unfavorable weather and the boll weevil, than cotton sections in other Southern Reserve Districts, with the exception o f a few border states in which production is nominal. Estimates of condition in the three cotton grow ing states in the Fifth District as of July 25 are as follows : South Carolina, 62; North Carolina, 75, and Virginia, 82. The unfavorable crop report together with better business writh textile mills and somewhat better demands for export cotton, caused a rise in cotton prices during the latter part of July and early August, the quotations on August 15 for spot cotton being about li/2 cents higher than six weeks ago. The tobacco crop of Virginia has been seriously damaged by dry weather, the Virginia Depart ment of Agriculture estimating on August 1 that the crop would be 47% less this year than the record crop of 1920. In South Carolina the tobacco markets opened shortly after the middle of July, but most of the early offerings were of low grade, and prices offered were unsatisfactory to producers, the monthly average paid being only 8 cents per pound, in comparison with the average of 22.4 cents per pound paid during July last year. The growers held a series of meetings during the first week the markets were open, and agreed to withhold their low grades from the market, using the tobacco for fertilizer if necessary. It appears that there is a fairly active demand for good tobacco, and at satisfactory prices. During July the South Carolina markets sold for producers 7,452,818 pounds for $598,346.10. The estimated production of corn in the United States, based upon a condition of 84.3% as of August 1, is 3,032,000,000 bushels, compared with 1920 production of 3,232,000,000 bushels and a five-year average of 2,798,000,000 bushels. The corn prospects declined in July, along with cotton and tobacco, the greatest damage in the Fifth District being in Virginia, where all crops suffered severely from drought. COAL — The weekly report of the United States Geological Survey says, “A slight but unbroken decline continues to mark production of soft coal. The total output during the first week in August is estimated at 7,296,000 net tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons from that of the week preceding. In the corresponding week of 1918 the output was 12,130,000 tons, and a year ago it was 10,432,000 tons.” From the first of January through July 30, 1921, production is given by the report as 226,680,000 net tons, in comparison with production of 298,562,000 net tons during the corresponding seven months of 1920, a decrease this year of 24.1%. For the week ending July 30, 1921, mine authorities from nine fields in W est Virginia reported a production equal to only 39.66% of capacity, the shortage o f production being accounted for by the lack of a market for bituminous coal. N ot withstanding the low output of coal, in view o f its decreased use for industrial purposes, it is estimated that consumption is at about the same rate as production, and the gradual recovery of industry is not likely to create a sudden heavy demand upon the mines. LUMBER — Reports from the lumber mills at the end of July are conflicting. One firm owning three large mills in W est Virginia reports that two of them are operating five days per week, but the third is closed. This firm writes that sales during the last ten days of July showed some improvement. Another group of W est Virginia mills writes that they are cutting no new logs, and are finding little sale for the lumber they are sawing from logs previously cut. A large hardwoods producer reports July shipments about one-fifth of normal. A South Carolina manu facturer states that lumber for house building is in fair demand, but he finds business very dull in the wooden box trade. Lumber shipments to Baltimore, Philadelphia and New Y ork are limited and the reporting firms state the cause to be unfavorable labor conditions in those cities. Exporters of lumber are receiving inquiries from Europe, but little business has actually developed, which is due, our correspondents say, to low rates of foreign exchange. W ooden box manufacturers report business slightly improved, but the restricted output by many canners and packers has reduced the demand for boxes. BUILDING OPERATIONS FOR THE MONTHS OF JU LY , 1921 AND 1920 1 Permit 3 Issued New Construction o* 1921 1921 1920 M aryland 1 Baltimore................... 2 Cumberland............... 3 Frederick................... V irginia 4 Lynchburg................. 5 Norfolk....................... 6 Richmond.................. 7 Roanoke..................... 8 Staunton..................... W est V irginia 9 Charleston............... 10 Huntington .............. 11 Parkersburg.............. N orth Carolina 12 Asheville .................. 13 Charlotte................... 14 Durham.................... 15 Greensboro .............. 16 High Point................. 17 Wilmington................ 18 Winston-Salem......... South Carolina 19 Charleston................. 20 Columbia................... 21 Greenville.................. 22 Spartanburg............... DlST. OF COLUMBIA 23 Washington............... 441 30 4 14 58 104 *135 64 *128 Alterations Repairs New CITIES 372 1,010 22 10 2 1 9 34 37 *70 2 12 35 109 33 *82 60 1921 1920 1921 1920 1920 Increase or Per Cent, of Decrease, Increase Total Valuation or c Decrease £ 855 $1,273,560 $1,927, 300 $ 683,640 $ 20 73,544 103,700 11,140 3; 000 10,100 10,350 686,000 $ 656,100— 5,488 24, 504— 2,750 5 42 103 800 30,400 120, 354 34,090 96,576 239,5 3 2 HO, 559 2,800— 70.3 43 9 35.9— 124.9 38.4— 18. 945— 90,125 130,000 5.9— 9 62,3 10 144.4 11 59.1— 5.1— 303.7 59.0 12.4 21.2— 5.3— 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 4 25.1— 1 22.4— 2 3 26.6 75,675 296, 943 307,676 *199,097 4,500 47,685 189, 405 547,398 *88, 538 7,300 6,900 19,438 120, 544 215, 260 *234,870 200,000 317,355 *144,745 60,000 87, 350 4,200 20,000 30,000 182, 765 159,150 44,500 66, 875 *36,000 83,000 94,875 6, 250 8,700 3,450 34,825 3,210 12,000 18,180 17,092 9 300 5,100 14,400 18, 500 29,115 118, 207— 8, 650— 150, 645 47, 975 4, 460 21,500— 6, 610— 842,382— 76,937 24, 620 35,925— 90.8— 97.6 24.5 46.3— 19 20 21 22 290, 420 29.6 23 915,998— 12.6— 0 26 29 25 18 10 13 40 60 22 6 11 *22 8 23 55 5 4 16 6 3 63 19 6 3 6 5 56 75,400 151,100 196, 795 94,425 37, 250 68,000 99,200 18 27 30 21 198 10 7 18 14 84 20 17 18 55 23 5 57,525 144,050 118,000 35,410 853,765 62, 650 41,175 75, 850 28,025 11,682 7,045 6,215 74,167 16,145 59,250 1,700 207 89 444 461 560, 881 654,790 710,739 326,410 Totals........... 1442 1,137 1,968 1,686 $4, 529, 261 $5,799,171 $1,802,333 $1, 448, 421 $ i ♦Includes both new and repairs. 4 5 6 7 8 — Denotes decrease. Permits for new construction issued in twenty-three of the leading cities of the Fifth District during’ July, 1921, totaled 1,442 compared with 1,137 issued in July, 1920, a gain this year of 305 permits, or 26.8%. Total valuation for new w ork in July of this year amounted to $4,529,261 compared with $5,799,171 for July, 1920, a decrease this year of $1,269,910, or 21.9%, which approx imates the decline in building costs within the year. Permits for repairs and alterations issued in July, 1921, totaled 1,968 compared with 1,686 permits issued in July, 1920, an increase this year o f 282 permits, or 16.7%. Total valuation for repair work in July, 1921, was $1,802,333 compared with $1,448,421 in July, 1920, an increase this year of $353,912, or 24.4%. In combined valuation for both new w ork and repairs or alterations July, 1921, witnessed a total of $6,331,594 compared with $7,247,592 in July, 1920, a decrease this year of $915,998, or 12.6%, which is certainly less than the decline in building costs during the year covered in the comparisons. As in previous months of this year, a very large proportion of the permits issued provide for residences or apartment houses. REPORT ON W HOLESALE TRADE Net Sales in July, 1921, Compared W ith L IN E S SOLD Groceries (9)* - - _______________ _____ - - Dry Goods (9)*_ _ _____ _______________ Boots and Shoes (8)* _________ ____________________ Hardware ( 8 ) * ______ - _____________ _____________ Furniture (3)* _ __ - ___ Total Average (37)* ____________ *Number of reporting firms. - _- Sales in June, 1921. Sales in July, 1920. — 0.6 3.1 — 22.2 — 13.3 — 33.1 — 55.5 — 56.0 — 34.9 —22.3 —47.7 — 6.4 —47.8 The table above shows in percentage form the increase or decrease in dollar value of sales made by thirty-seven wholesale firms during July, 1921, in comparison with (1) sales made during June, 1921, and (2) sales made during July, 1920. All lines register decreases in comparison with July, 1920, and all except dry goods show declines from June, 1921. In comparing July with the cor responding month of last year it should be remembered that prices this year are much lower than last, which accounts for a considerable part of the apparent decrease in business. The decreases in July under June, 1921, may be traced to the usual slack midsummer trade. The comments on probable price developments are interesting. Of the nine reports from wholesale grocers, five think the present levels are safe and permanent for a few months, three think that prices will shortly advance, and one thinks that further declines will come. The nine dry goods reporters also disagree, four believing that prices are stationary, two expecting advances, and three looking for further reductions. Seven shoe jobbers or manufacturers write that prices are stable, but one firm expects some further declines. The reports from hardware dealers all agree that the declines in their line have not reached bottom, but one concern qualifies its answer by saying that some articles in the trade are stationary. The furniture reporters appear to be more uncertain as to future developments than dealers in other lines, but they state that they cannot operate profitably at prices that have prevailed during the past few months. Collections in the wholesale trade continue fair, though two grocery firms, two shoe dealers and one hardware jobber write that they are slow, and another hardware j o b b e r in the cotton section of the Carolinas reports them as poor. O f thirty-seven reports received for July, six state that collections are good and twenty-five fair. FIGURES ON RETAIL TRADE As Indicated By Reports from Twenty-Five Representative Department Stores for the Month of July 1921 Baltimore Richmond Washington Other Cities District lu Percentage increase (or decrease) in net sales during July over or under sales in July, 1920 ___________________________ -16.9 •15.9 4.2 Percentage decrease in Sales during July, 1921, under sales during June ________ -37.1 ■29.2 -28.1 £1 > 10.1 -11.7 -19.5 -30.1 - V tr Percentage decrease in stocks on hand at the end of July, 1921, in comparison with stocks on hand at the end of July, 1920 _______________________________________ -27.8 -16.9 -23.9 -18.2 Percentage increase (or decrease) in stocks on hand at the end of July, 1921, in comparison with stocks on hand at the end of June, 1921 __________________ 4.2 1.9 2.3 2.3 Percentage of average stocks on hand at the end of July,1921, to average monthly sales during the same month _________ 463.2 429.5 434.8 480.5 453.3 Percentage of outstanding orders on July 31, 1921, to total purchases of merchan dise (cost price) during the calendar year 1920 ________________________________ 9.S 12.5 7.6 9.6 9.2 # 2? f -24.1 ■ 99 2.2 — Denotes decrease. Detailed reports received from twenty-five of the leading department stores in the Fifth Dis trict show that 11.7% less goods in dollar value were sold in July, 1921, than during the same month of 1920, but this decline is less than the general average of price declines in the year, thus indicating a very satisfactory volume of retail trade if measured in actual units of merchandise sold. The decline of 11.7% in the dollar value of sales is the largest percentage decrease reported for any month this year in comparison with the corresponding month of 1920, and would seem to indicate that retail trade is slowing up somewhat though part of the decline is accounted for by receding prices during the spring and summer. Since the first of January, the twenty-five stores have sold only seven-tenths of 1 per cent, less goods in dollar value than they sold during the corresponding seven months in 1920. Sales in July, 1921, were 30.1% less than in June, compared with a decrease of 24% in July, 1920, under June of that year. In stocks on hand at the end o f July, all cities reported lower values than at the close of July, 1920, the average for the District being 24.1% less. At the close o f July, 1921, the reports show an average of 453.3% in percentage o f stocks carried to net sales during the month, as compared with an average of 341.3% for the first six months of the year, but in view o f seasonal dullness in retail trade lines during July the sharp increase shown does not indicate that the reporting stores are materially increasing their stocks of goods. In fact, the figures actually show a decrease of 2.2% in stocks on hand at the end of July, 1921, as compared with stocks on hand at the end of the preceding month. Outstanding orders for merchandise on July 31, 1921, amounted to 9.2% of total purchases during the calendar year 1920, this being the highest percentage reported at the close of any month since August, 1920, when the figure was 14.8% o f purchases made the previous calendar year. In contrast with the orders that were outstanding at the end of August, 1920, most of which were placed earlier in that season, the orders outstanding at the end of July, 1921, are of recent dates, and represent actual requirements in the retail stores. The retail consumer is discriminating between various types of goods, and is buying freely the medium priced articles o f good quality. High priced, fancy merchandise, and fads or extreme styles are hard to sell. Customers do not seem to be tempted by special reduction sales unless the goods offered are really needed. Collections from charge customers appear to be slowing up a little, but a part o f this is probably due to the usual dullness at this season of the year. MISCELLANEOUS — Dry docks and ship yards have found new business extremely hard to secure this year and repair work has been postponed as long as possible because of excessive costs, made necessary, our correspondents claim, by high wages. The trunk and bag business shows some seasonal improvement, but is disappointing to the manufacturers. Ginners are not yet-purchasing bagging and ties, but the manufacturers expect more orders when the picking of cotton begins. The wholesale drug business is improving. Paving brick are in demand. Tanners are making offers for hides, and are apparently ready to use them in considerable quantities, although there has been no material change in the prices offered. A report from a large marble and stone quarry indicates that sales and inquiries in building lines are better than for three years, and the sales in monumental lines are good, but collections are unsatisfactory. Compiled August 15, 1921
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