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MONTHLY REVIEW
of Credit and Business Conditions
S e c o n d

Federal Reserve Agent

F e d e r a l

R e s e r v e

D is tr ic t

Federal Reserve Bank, New York

Business Conditions in the United States
RODUCTION of basic commodities declined dur­
ing September, wholesale trade continued large,
while retail trade, though larger than a year ago,
increased less than is usual at this season of the year.
Wholesale prices, particularly those of agricultural
products, advanced during the month.

P

P r o d u c t io n

Production in basic industries, according to the
Federal Reserve Board’s index, declined 5 per cent,
during September, and was 10 per cent, below the peak
output of May. The principal factors in this decline
were the suspension of anthracite coal mining for oyer
two weeks and a substantial reduction in the production
of iron and steel. Cement production and sugar melt­
ing's were larger than in August. The decline in the
production index, which is corrected for seasonal varia­
tions and reflects chiefly changes in the output of raw
and semi-finished products, was not accompanied by a
reduction of employment at industrial establishments.
New building construction showed about the usual sea­
sonal decline in September, due to a curtailment in con­
tracts for residences. Contract awards for business and
industrial buildings, however, were larger than in
August.
Estimates by the Department of Agriculture on
October 1 showed some reduction from the September

November 1 , 1923

forecasts in the yields of corn, wheat, oats, and tobacco,
but increased yields of cotton, potatoes, and hay.
T r ad e

Distribution of all classes of commodities by rail­
roads continued at a high rate throughout September.
Wholesale trade, according to the Federal Reserve
Board’s index, in September reached the largest total in
three years and was 9 per cent, larger than a year ago.
Sales of meat, hardware, and drugs were considerably
larger than in last September, while shoe sales were
smaller. Retail trade was slightly larger in September,
but the increase was much less than is usual at this
season of the year. Department store sales were 6 per
cent, more than in September 1922, and stocks at the
end of the month were 13 per cent, larger than a year
ago.
P r ice s

Wholesale prices increased over 2 per cent, during
September, according to the index of the Bureau of
Labor Statistics, particularly large increases occurring
in the prices of clothing, farm products, and foods.
Fuel prices, on the other hand, declined in September
for the eighth successive month, and prices of building
materials and metals were also lower. During the first
three weeks of October prices of certain farm products
continued to advance, wheat and cotton reaching the
highest prices of the current year, while prices of hogs,
coal, and metals declined.

PERCENT.

Production in Basic Industries— Combination of 22 Individual
Series corrected for Seasonal Variation (1919 average = 100
Per cent.)




Index of Wholesale Prices, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
(1913 average = 100 Per cent.)

2

M O N T H L Y R E V IE W , N O V E M B E R 1, 1923

BILLIONS
O f DOLLARS

BILLIONS
OF DOLLARS

Sf

W

.
\

FEDERAL . RESERVE
NO T E 5

EARN 1m
A5SET5

1919

1920

1921

1922

1919

1923

Bank Credit— 800 Member Banks in Leading Cities
B a n k C r e d it

The demand for bank credit showed a seasonal in­
crease in September and the early part of October,
loans of member banks in leading cities increasing by
$116,000,000 between September 12 and October 10.
This increase reflected chiefly the demand for commer­
cial loans, which on the latter date stood at a new
high point for the year, almost $100,000,000 above the
total on September 12. Increases in the holdings of
Government securities by these banks were partly offset
by reductions in corporate security holdings.
The demand for accommodation at the Federal Re­
serve Banks in some of the agricultural districts in­
creased, while at the Reserve Banks in the East the
volume of discounts for member banks declined. Federal
Reserve note circulation continued to increase and in
the middle of October was about $100,000,000 above the
July level.
In October, money rates showed an easier tendency
and after the fifteenth of the month rates for commercial
paper in the New York market declined from a range
of 5 % — 5 ^ to 5— 5y4 per cent.

1920

1921

V
V

1922.

Bank Credit— All Federal Reserve Banks

October, reflecting in part larger portfolios held by the
dealers, but bills discounted for member banks and
holdings of United States securities declined.

Bank Debits
During recent months there has been a decline in the
volume of checks drawn against deposits in banks
located in New York and other cities, after allowance
has been made for seasonal variation, price changes, and
annual growth. As shown in the accompanying dia­
gram, the decline has been more rapid in New York
City where the fluctuations are much affected by whole­
sale trade and transactions in the security markets.
Debits outside of New York, which reflect closely
changes in the general volume of commercial and in­
dustrial activity, have likewise shown a decrease, and in
September were 3 per cent, below estimated normal.
The statistical methods used in the following diagram
in making allowance for growth, and for seasonal and
price changes are similar to those used in other indexes
of industrial and trade activity which have been pub­
lished from time to time in the R e v ie w .
PER CENT.

Banking Conditions, Second District
Total loans and investments of reporting member
banks in this district were practically unchanged during
the last half of September and first half of October.
Loans largely for commercial purposes increased
$50,000,000 to a new high point for the year, chiefly due
to seasonal causes, but this increase was largely offset
by a reduction in loans on stocks and bonds. Total de­
posits increased $50,000,000 to the highest point since
July.
Total earning assets of the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York increased during the latter part of September
and first part of October, but after the 15th of the
month declined sharply to $204,000,000, the lowest this
year except during periods of heavy Government dis­
bursements at quarterly tax dates. Bills bought in the
open market increased during the first three weeks of




1923

Bank Debits— New York City and Outside
(Computed normal = 100 Per cent.)

FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK

Money Rates
A slight easing in money rates after October 1, which
became more distinct after the 15th of the month, ap­
peared to indicate an unusually early culmination
of seasonal demands, accompanying reductions in cer­
tain phases of industrial and business activity.
Commercial paper rates, which averaged close to 5y 2
per cent, about the middle of September, declined to
5*A per cent, for most prime paper, and some sales
were made at 5 per cent. This change reflected a good
demand from the interior, together with some increase
in buying by New York City banks. Supplies of paper,
on the other hand, were generally reported as light, due
to small demand from commercial concerns for funds.
The accompanying diagram shows the decline between
September 1 and October 1 in the outstanding paper of
26 dealers.
M IL L IO N S
OF DOLLARS

1918

1919

19£0

1921

1922

1923

Commercial Paper Outstanding— Twenty-Six Dealers

Demand for bills likewise increased slightly during
October, but not to the same extent as did the supply
of bills which was increased by seasonal drawings on
cotton and grain. In consequence, dealers * portfolios
increased. Rates, however, were unchanged at 4y 8 to
414 per cent, on purchases by the dealers, and 4 to 4 %
per cent, on sales by them.
After a slight rise at the first of the month, there
was practically no change in offering rates for Govern­
ment short term certificates and notes.
Call money displayed the usual first-of-the-month
firmness, but eased by the middle of the month to 4y 2
and 414 per cent, for renewals, and to 4 per cent, on
some days for new loans. Time money on stock market
collateral dropped to 5-5*4 per cent., compared with
per cent, for a period during the latter part
of September.

Security Markets
Stock trading was generally dull during October and
price tendencies lower. Railroad stocks were relatively
steady, due presumably to favorable earnings reports,
but averages of industrial issues in some instances
reached new low points for the year.
Bond prices, on the other hand, were firmer in Octo­
ber, accompanying an easier tendency in money rates.
Liberty and high grade corporation issues recovered




3

substantially
from
the
losses
incurred
during
September.
The volume of new securities offered likewise in­
creased in October, and during the third week was the
largest since June. Railway issues were an important
part of the total. A $15,000,000 preferred stock issue
by a leading railway marks a departure from recent
railway financing which has largely been in the form
of bonds or notes. Other noteworthy offerings were
$47,000,000 Federal Land Bank 4 % per cent, bonds,
$21,000,000 bonds of the State of Illinois, and a $10,000,000 loan for the Government of Finland.

Foreign Exchange
After holding steady at close to $4.55 during the first
ten days of October, sterling later in the month declined
sharply to $4.47%, the lowest quotation since November
1922. Seasonal bill offerings, British Government pur­
chases of dollars, and political disorders in Germany
were probably factors in the decline.
French and Belgian francs were off about ^4 of a cent
to the lowest since mid-September. Italian exchange
was under some pressure, and marks continued their
precipitate decline.
Chief changes in other rates included a continued
downward tendency in the Scandinavian exchanges and
some loss in Dutch, Argentine, and Chinese exchanges.
Canadian, Japanese, and Indian rates were firmer. Most
exchanges advanced following announcement of a pro­
posed international conference on reparations.

Gold Movement
Continuation of the heavy inflow of gold was shown
by imports of $27,803,961 during September, chiefly
from England, Germany, Canada, and France, com­
pared with exports of $862,697, largely to British
India and Mexico. Net imports during the month
were $26,941,264.
The accompanying table, comparing the gold move­
ment by quarters in 1922 and 1923, shows that net gold
imports for the first nine months of this year were
practically equal to those for the same period of last
year.
1922

Imports

First Quarter.............
Second Quarter.........
Third Quarter...........

$88,798,547
34,214,148
80,543,170

$3,558,190
6,586,279
2,998,174

Exports

$85,240,357
27,627,869
83,544,996

Total, 9 m onths. . .

$209,555,865

$13,142,643

$196,413,222

1923
First Quarter.............
Second Quarter.........
Third Quarter............

$57,154,256
74,778,204
88,589,505

$20,263,387
2,028,163
3,586,484

$36,890,869
72,750,041
85.003,021

Total, 9 m on th s.. .

$220,521,965

$25,878,034

$194,643,931

Net Imports

Foreign Trade
September exports, valued at $381,000,000, were the
largest for any month since March 1921, while imports
valued at $255,000,000 were the smallest for any month
since July 1922.
The increase in exports was due
chiefly to heavy shipments of raw cotton which were
not far from twice as large as in August, or in Septem­

4

MONTHLY REVIEW, NOVEMBER 1, 1923

ber last year. The increase in cotton exports accounted
for $66,000,000 of the total gain of $70,000,000 in ex­
ports between August and September. Grain and meat
exports also increased.

Per cent.
Increase

Commodity
C o tto n .........................................................
...................
C orn.............................
.
C attle..........................................................................................
W heat.......................................................................................
Sheep...............................................................
Oats..............................................................................................
H o g s .......................................................................................

Merchandise imports have shown almost continuous
reduction since March of this year when a high total
of $397,000,000 was reached. Factors in this decline
have been decreases in imports of sugar and of raw
materials for use in manufacturing.

41
34
18
13
10
7

Date of Low
July 28
July 3
April 17
August 6
March 16
July 13
.lune 11

Cost of Living

The accompanying diagram shows the recent move­
ments of imports and exports. During the four months
March to June, imports exceeded exports by a substan­
tial margin, but since then there has been a growing
export balance which in September amounted to $126,000,000, the largest since October 1921.

Advances of more than 2 per cent, in the retail prices
of food and clothing caused an increase of 1.1 per cent,
between August 15 and September 15, in the index
of the cost of living for a workingman’s family, pre­
pared by the National Industrial Conference Board.
This index is now 6 per cent, above the 1922 low point
and 63 per cent, higher than in 1914. Detailed changes
were as follows:
(July 1914 = 100 Per cent.)

•1IU.ION* OP

1000
...

»

900

i

800

J ';

700

UM

fv

EXPORT5

A'
/ Vi JU-V
V
V

600
a

500
N

- /A
* ---------

400

J
J 1
1

300

f-K.j

ZOO

I

ilIf

!

A h
V

!
1 ------------ 1
i
i

\

M
,A > K l
V A .
j
\
i NA
,
>------------ v,.
a
V
30RT5
1 4$
y jy
V i
----------^
j

J

A —

A

f

i

j

j

1-------------1

I
1915

1916

1917

1915

1919

1920

1921

1922.

1923

Value of Imports into the United States and Value of Exports
from the United States

Prices
Largely because of increases in prices of farm prod­
ucts and foodstuffs and advances in cloths and cloth­
ing attributable to higher cotton and raw silk, the index
of wholesale prices of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
advanced 2.7 per cent, in September to a point 54 per
cent, above the 1913 average. There were fractional
advances in chemicals and drugs, and in miscellaneous
items, but the group indexes for building materials,
metals and metal products, and fuel and lighting de­
clined.
During the first three weeks of October the price index
of 20 basic commodities computed by this bank declined
2.1 per cent,, due to further declines in basic materials
used in manufacturing which offset continued strength
in agricultural products. Wheat reached the highest
price in several months, and spot cotton at 31.75 on
October 25, was the highest since August 1920. The fol­
lowing table indicates advances recorded by staple agri­
cultural products since the low points of the year.




Per cent. Change
September 1922
to
September 1923

Index
September 1923

Clothing......................
Shelter.........................
Fuel and Light..........

149
175
175
176
173

+ 2 .1
+ 2 .3

+ 6 .4
+ 1 2 .9
+ 6 .1
-5 .9
+ 0 .6

163

+ 1 .1

+ 5 .0

IL_____
It
It

Per cent. Change
August 1923
to
September 1923

Item

The quarterly index of living costs in New York City
computed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was 1.6
per cent, higher in September than in June and 3.4 per
cent, above the lowest point reached in 1922. Com­
pared with the 1913 average the advance in this index
was 72 per cent.

Employment and Wages
Due chiefly to seasonal activity in the clothing
industry in New York City, employment in New York
State factories increased slightly in September, accord­
ing to reports to the State Department of Labor. The
number of workers on payrolls September 15 was 3.2
per cent, smaller than in March, the high month this
year, and 7 per cent, larger than in September a year
ago. The State Employment Service reported more
requests for workers than there were applicants for
positions. In the United States at large, the number of
factory workers was virtually unchanged, although a
slightly larger proportion of the reporting firms worked
full time.
Average weekly earnings of factory workers in New
York State were 1 per cent, higher in September than
in August, reflecting the seasonal increase in employ­
ment. Wage rates in general were unchanged. The
principal exceptions were an increase of 6 to 7 per cent,
in wages of New York City newspaper pressmen and
of 14 per cent, in wages of longshoremen. In Octo­
ber the Railway Labor Board awarded increases of 1 to
2 cents an hour to clerks, station forces, dock, warehouse,
and platform freight handlers of 65 railroads in order to
bring the wages of these workers in line with the wages
of other workers.

FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK

Production
The decline in production in basic industries first
apparent in June was continued during September,
with fewer exceptions than in preceding months. In all
but three industries, sugar refining, cement, and woolen
goods, the available reports show a lower output in Sep­
tember than in August, after allowance has been made
for normal seasonal variations.
The following diagram groups the various industries
into producers’ and consumers’ goods and indicates the
decline in each group since the early months of the year.

5

silk many silk mills in this district have reduced opera­
tions to three days a week.
The following table shows the indexes of production
computed by this bank in percentages of estimated
normal production. Allowance has been made for sea­
sonal variations and for year to year growth.
(Estimated Normal = 100 Per cent.)
1922

1923

Sept. M ay

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Producers’ Goods
/PERCENT.

Bituminous co a l.............................................
Copper, U. S. m ine........................................
Tin deliveries.................................................
C otton consum ption......................................
W oolen mill a ctivity*....................................

Leather, so le ....................................................
Consumers' Goods
Anthracite co a l...............................................
Wheat flour.....................................................
Cattle slaughtered.........................................
Calves slaughtered.........................................
Sheep slaughtered..........................................
Hogs slaughtered...........................................
Sugar meltings, U. S. ports.........................
Paper, to ta l.....................................................
Tobacco consum ption...................................

Production of Consumers’ Goods and Producers’ Goods
(Computed normal = 100 Per cent.)

Pig iron jjroduction, amounting to 3,126,000 tons in
September, was 9 per cent, less than in August, and
19 per cent, below the high total of May, when the out­
put was 24 per cent, above estimated normal. At the
close of September there were 15 less blast furnaces in
operation than at the beginning of the month and dur­
ing October there was a further reduction. There was
a nearly equivalent decrease in the output of steel
ingots, which fell slightly below estimated normal for
the first time since September last year. Unfilled orders
of the United States Steel Corporation declined 378,913
tons between August and September to 5,036,000 tons,
the smallest amount since March 1922.
After a slight increase in August, the production
of passenger automobiles declined 15,000 during Sep­
tember to 298,900, but was only 51,000 lower than during
the record month of May, and the output of trucks in­
creased. This continued high rate of production follows
an output for the preceding eight months that was larger
than during the entire year of 1922.
Due to the strike in the anthracite coal fields the
production of anthracite coal decreased from 8,868,000
tons in August to 2,917,000 tons in September. On the
settlement of the strike in the latter part of the month
production was resumed at slightly under the normal
rate.
Cotton consumption in September was slightly less
than in August, due to further curtailment by New
England mills. Partly to conserve their supplies of raw




Automobile, a ll...............................................
Automobile, passenger..................................
Automobile, truck..........................................
Boots and shoes..............................................
Automobile tires...........................................
r
p
*
e

68
87
86
79
92
109
92
99
102
107
121
62
95

124
122
114
95
114
139
108
118
120
125
133
83
96

122
121
1 14
105
109
106
102
98
92
84
142
139
96
83
113
104
123 e 110c
123
114
135
128
75
75
93
105

110? 102
107
99
105
99/>
111
103/>
09
80
145
89
'88
98
98p
103 e
125
130
i38
73
68
106
91 p

61
114
97
127
79
128
110
105
98
102
97
101
79
95
123

98
113
118
130
104
122
118
114
93
108
146
150
130
114
162

98
107
101
114
89
122
79
101c
93
111
152
159
126
105
134

104
116
109
145
79
149
74
93 e
89
108
145
157
98
89
121/;

100
122
105
123
86
135
70
84 e
88
110
151
162
109
89
95 r

35
109
98
118
76
146
102

i 40p
149 p
104p

Revised.
Preliminary.
Seasonal variation not allowed for.
Estimated.

Indexes of Business Activity
As in the case of production, index numbers of busi­
ness activity, shown in the subjoined table, were gen­
erally lower in September than in August but on the
(Estimated Normal =100 Per cent.)

Primary Distribution
Car loadings, mdse, and misc.....................
Car loadings, other................................
Wholesale trade, Second D istrict...............
Cereal exports.................................................
Distribution to Consumer
Department store sales, Second D istrict..
Mail order sales..............................................
New life insurance written..........................
Amusement receipts......................................
Magazine advertising....................................
General Business Activity
Bank debits, outside N. Y. C it y ...............
Bank debits, New York C ity . .. . .............
Electric power.................................................
Postal receipts................................................
Building permits.............................................
Business failures.............................................
p Preliminary,
r Revised.

1922

1923

Sept. M ay June

July

Aug.

Sept.

98
93
105
79
111
183

108
119
103
83
130
143

103
117
100
no
119
92

102
119
102
95
110
73

102
118
112
92
99
86

103
106
100
95/;
94 p

105
102
80
107
82
85

99
99
110
105
108
91

101
103
103
108
93
95

93
94
91
103
94
100

101
98
81
112
98
98

97
96
91
112

100
110
102
102
130
113

112
105
112
104
122
102

107
105
110
102
114
101

99
98
109
99
111
84

102
93
110
103
123r
95

97
93

*90

97
127p
88

(i

MONTHLY RE V IE W , NOVEMBER 1, 1923

average indicated activity close to estimated normal.
In each case the figures are expressed as percentages of
the estimated normal. Allowance has been made for
seasonal changes, year to year growth, and, when neces­
sary, for changes in prices.

Building
Due largely to seasonal tendencies, the value of build­
ing permits granted in 158 principal cities declined
$29,000,000 in September, or 12 per cent. Approxi­
mately half the decline occurred in New York City but
declines were also general in other sections of the
country except the Southwest and Central West, where
there were increases.
This bank’s index of the volume of building, which
allows for seasonal variation and changes in the cost of
construction, was slightly higher in September than in
August though 30 per cent, lower than in March, the
high month this year.
The accompanying diagram
indicates the course of the building index since 1919 and
compares this with changes in pig iron production
which may be taken as representative of the movement
of industrial production. The way in which pig iron
production has followed the granting of building per­
mits is an indication of the close relationship between
the volume of building and industrial activity in recent
years.
PER CENT

x\partment Rents
Inquiry among apartment house renting agencies in
this city as to rents following October 1 indicated a
continued shortage of medium and low priced apart­
ments, and no reduction in rents, which generally aver­
aged 9 per cent, higher than a year ago.
In the case of higher priced apartments renting for
$30 a room and over, there was reported to be some
surplus, due to active construction of apartments of
this type and of private houses in recent years. This
situation has resulted in few reductions in rents which
are generally maintained at close to the levels of a
year ago.

Wholesale Trade
Wholesale trade in this district was less active in
September than in August and the index, prepared
by this bank from reports of 162 dealers in 11 lines,
declined from 12 per cent, above computed normal in
August to less than 1 per cent, above normal in Septem­
ber. The September figure is the lowest since June and
is 16 per cent, lower than in February, when sales were
19 per cent, above normal.
The accompanying diagram shows the fluctuations of
wholesale trade in percentages of computed normal
since 1919, and compares with these a similar index of
railway car loadings of merchandise and miscellaneous
freight which represents largely the shipment of manu­
factured goods in wholesale trade. The courses of the
two lines are closely similar but freight shipments as a
rule follow wholesale sales by some months. Both in­
dexes are now lower than in earlier months, though both
remain above normal. In the computations of these in­
dexes allowance has been made for seasonal v a ria tio n s
and year to year growth.

PER CENT,

Volume of Building: and Production of Pig Iron
(Computed normal = 100 Per cent.)

Building wages remained in September at the high
levels reached in August but prices of building materials
continued to decline. As a result, the cost of construc­
tion index computed by this bank receded further and
was about 5 per cent, below the May high point.
The value of building contracts awarded in 27 north­
eastern States, as reported by the F. W . Dodge Co., was
virtually unchanged in September at $253,000,000, al­
though a smaller number of projects was involved. The
aggregate value of contracts awarded in these States
during the first nine months of 1923 was slightly less
than in the corresponding period of 1922.




Wholesale Trade in the Second Federal Reserve District and
Oar Loadings of Merchandise and Miscellaneous Freight
(Computed normal = 100 Per cent.)

FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK
The decline in trade in September was the result of
smaller sales of men’s and women’s clothing, groceries,
shoes, hardware, machine tools, and diamonds. In the
cases of women’s dresses, machine tools, and shoes, sales
were below those of 1922 for the first time this year.
Sales of silk goods, shown separate from sales of cotton
goods for the first time, were 22 per cent, higher than
in September a year ago, partly due to price advances.
Detailed figures for various groups are shown below.

Dollar Value of September Sales
(September 1922 = 100 Per cent.)
Comm odity

D ry G o o d s ..........................
(a) Silk goods.................
(b) Cotton good s...........
D rugs....................................
Jew elry.................................
H ardw are............................
Stationery..............................
C lothin g.................................
(a) M en’s and boys’ . . .
(b) W om en’s coats and
suits............................
(c) W om en’s dresses. . . .
Groceries................................
Machine tools.......................
Shoes......................................
D iam onds..............................
Total (w eighted).............

1919

1920

1921

1922

118
129
108
99
21S
108
140
96
81

96

92
80
104
93
81
82

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

109
104
138
231
233
164

122

86

106
93
181
131
161

102

140

80
77

120
103

110
126
238
99
91

122

74

88
94
25
99
48
91

1923
116

122
113
112
109

108
107
103
113

During September sales of furniture and men’s and
boys’ clothing were 10 per cent, larger than a year
ago. Shoe sales were 7 per cent, above those of last
September but the increase in sales of women’s ready to
wear clothing and accessories was smaller than for
several months past. The foregoing table shows the
changes in sales in eleven major groups of departments.
The number of individual transactions declined 0.8
per cent, but the average amount of each transaction
advanced 5.2 per cent, from $2.86 last September to
$3.01 this year.
Stocks held by department stores increased 11 per
cent, between September 1 and October 1, due to the
receipt of fall and winter merchandise, and were 9 per
cent, above those of October 1, a year ago. Detailed
figures of sales and stocks are shown in the following
table.

105

N et S ales D uring S ept .
(Sept. 1922
100 Per cent.)

88
102
96
94
81
All dept, sto re s...
New Y o r k .........

Department Store Business
September sales by department stores in this district
were 4.2 per cent, above those of September a year
ago, compared with gains of 11 per cent, in August, 9
per cent, in July, and 8 per cent, during the first half
of the year. The index of department store sales main­
tained by this bank, in which allowance is made for
seasonal variations, year to year growth, and changes
in prices, declined from 1 per cent, above normal in
August to 3 per cent, below normal in September.
Sales were possibly affected by unseasonably warm
weather during the latter part of the month and a
slightly earlier date for the Jewish holidays. Sales
in New York City were relatively smaller than those
in other cities of the district due perhaps in part to
the newspaper pressmen’s strike which prevented stores
from carrying out their usual advertising program.
In Boston, however, where there was no such strike,
the decline in sales was greater than in New York
City.

Rochester..........
Syracuse............
Bridgeport.........
Elsewhere..........
Apparel sto re s....
Mail order houses

Furniture..................................................................................................
M en’s and Boys* clothing....................................................................
Women’s ready to w ea r........................................................................
Silk goods.................................................................................................
H osiery.............................................................................................
W omen’s ready to wear accessories...................................................
House f urnish ings..................................................................................
C otton g o od s...........................................................................................
W oolen go o d s ..........................................................................................
M iscellaneous....................................................................




+ 10.3
+ 9 .9
+ 7 .0
+ 4 .8
+ 4 .4
+ 3 .8
+ 2 .3
+ 10
+ 0 .1
- 0 .9
— 6 .9

1919

1920

1921

1922

1923

1919

1920

1921

1922

1923

90
93
84
79
88
88
95
88
86
136

96
97
97
88
102
103
104
103
89
117

86
85
91
89
89
89
87
94
85
96

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

104
103
104
109
112
111
102
101
105
122

97
95
105
99
119
119
103
95
85

123
122
130
131
147
155
124
118
104

102
101
108
99
111
101
101
112
96

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

109
108
109
109
110
109
97
105
116

Sales by mail order houses were 22 per cent, larger
than in September of last year and the index of sales in
percentages of normal, computed by this bank, recovered
from a point 19 per cent, below normal in August to
9 per cent, below in September. The accompanying dia­
gram shows fluctuations in mail order sales, together with
department store sales, from 1919 to date.
PERCENT.

150 r

‘125
DEPAfUT1ENT
5TORI:S
* NORMAL

100
Per cent. Change
in Sales Sept.
1922 to Sept. 1923

Stock on H and O ctober 1
(Oct. l f 1922 * 100 Per cent.)

M A IL ^ W l
.ORDER V\
HOUSES \

75

JnA/JA/"
*
h

K

A -

50
1919

1 9£ 0

192.1

1 9Z £

192-3

Sales of Department Stores in the Second Federal Reserve
District and Mail Order Houses
(Computed normal = 100 Per cent.)

8

M O N T H L Y R E V IE W , N O V E M B E R 1, 1923

MOTORS &
ACCESSORIES

IRON & STEEL

3920

1921

1922

1920

1923

1922

OTHER PRODUCERS
GOODS

J

1921

1920

O IL S

1923

1921

1920

1923

PU B LI
U T IL IT I

CONSUM ERS
GOODS

1922

1922

1923

Net Profits by Six Months Periods of Representative Industrial and Public Utility Concerns
(First six months of 1 9 2 0 = 1 0 0 Per cent.)

Profits in the First Half of 1923
Production and trade during the first half of 1923
were in most lines larger than in 1920. A compilation of
the statements which have been published currently in­
dicates that profits of business concerns in the first half
of 1923, while considerably larger than in 1921 or 1922,
were with a few exceptions slightly smaller than in
1920. Largely increased profits were made by public
utility corporations and by manufacturers of miscel­
laneous products used in industry.
The diagram at the top of this page shows by half
yearly periods the profits of 57 corporations engaged
in industrial production and trade, and 133 public
utility companies. In each case the figures for the first
half of 1920 are taken as 100 per cent. Computations
of net profits have been after all charges and tax deduc­
tions, but before dividends.
It is notable that these figures for profits show much
wider fluctuations than figures for the volume of in­
dustry or trade. On the average, changes in the volume
of business are within a range of 10 to 25 per cent., de­
pending on the nature of the industry, whereas these
figures for profits have a fluctuation from two to three
(Net Profits in Hundreds of Thousands of Dollars—00,000 omitted)

Class

Number
of
Corpo­
rations

1921

1920
1st
Half

2nd
Half

1st
Half
507
254
68

1922

2nd
Half

1923

1st
Half

2nd
Half

1st
Half

278
277*
141

447
526
324

587
451
288

642
621
397

46
62

111
112

149
135

175
130

Iron and Steel..........
Motors & Accessories
O il................................
Other producers’
goods ( 1 ) ................
Consumers’ goods (2)

9
7
14

682
757
439

491
344
391

17
10

80
177

115*
63

Industrials, t o t a l..

57

2,141

1,174

877

250

1,520

1,610

1,965

Telephones................
Other utilities...........

72
61

426
411

392
314

544
354

524
348

619
431

638
413

715
548

22*
70

Public utilities, total

133

837

706

898

872

1,050

1,051

1,263

Grand T o t a l.........

190

2,978

1,880

1,775

1,122

2,570

2,661

3,228

* Deficit.
(1) Includes such as leather, machinery, cement, zinc, elevators, coal.
(2) Includes such as printing, beverages, cigars, syrups, candy, drugs.




times as great. In general, profits of firms whose prod­
ucts supply other industries have fluctuated more since
1920 than profits of public utilities and other companies
dealing more directly with the individual consumer.
The accompanying table gives the figures upon which
the diagram is based.
The earnings of railroads were not included in the
diagram above because the 1920 earnings were too low
to give a true basis of comparison. The net operating
income of Class 1 railroads during the first 8 months
of 1923 as reported by the Bureau of Railway Econom­
ics was equal to 5.40 per cent, on their minimum
tentative valuation as fixed by the Interstate Commerce
Commission, as compared with 5.75 per cent, set by the
Commission as a fair return on capital invested. The
diagram below shows the rate of return earned by roads
in the eastern, western, and southern districts since
the expiration on September 1, 1920, of the 6 months’
guaranty provided by the Transportation Act.
After small earnings or deficits during the months of
1920 and 1921, earnings of eastern and southern roads
increased in 1922 as a result of more active business
and heavy traffic preceding the coal strike of that year,
but in the later months earnings of all roads were cur­
tailed by the shopmen’s strike. In the case of the west­
ern roads, earnings have been persistently below the
fair return established by the Commission.
ii-------s ------ -

LiL_k_
A
i1V
W

£

»<»£0 !<}£»

>9*3

0

V p
i\ i
[pOUTHERI
192.1

1922.

192.3

1921

Monthly Rate of Net Profits on Tentative Valuation of Class I
Railroads