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MONTHLY REVIEW o f C r e d it a n d B u s in e s s C o n d it io n s S e c o n d Federal Reserve Agent F e d e r a l D is t r ic t Federal Reserve Bank, New York B u s in e s s C o n d i t io n s in t h e U n i t e d S ta te s RO D U C TIO N o f basic commodities and factory employment showed unusually large declines in May and were considerably below the level o f a year ago. Purchases at wholesale and retail also de clined during the month and were somewhat below last y e a r’s volume. Commercial loans at member banks de creased and there was a further decline in money rates. P P roduction The Federal Reserve B oa rd ’s index o f production in basic industries, adjusted to allow fo r seasonal varia tions, declined about 10 per cent, in May to a point about 18 per cent, below the peak reached a year ago. Particularly marked decreases were shown fo r produc tion o f iron and steel and m ill consumption o f cotton. Output o f anthracite, cement, and tobacco products, on the other hand, was slightly larger than in A pril. F ac tory employment declined 4 per cent, in May, the num ber of employees being reduced in almost all reporting industries. The largest reduction o f working forces occurred in the textile, metal, automobile, and leather industries. The value o f building contracts awarded in May was 13 per cent, less than the month before and fo r the first time since the beginning o f the year fell below the corresponding month in 1923. PERCENT. Index of 22 Basic Commodities corrected for seasonal variation. (1919 = 100 Per cent.—Latest figure May) R e s e r v e July 1,1924 The Department o f A griculture forecasts as o f June 1 indicated smaller yields o f wheat, oats, and barley as com pared with the harvests o f 1923. The condition o f the cotton crop on M ay 25 was 5 per cent, lower than a year ago and 7 per cent, below the average condition fo r the past ten years. T rade Railroad shipments showed a slight increase in May, but were 8 per cent, smaller than a year ago. Car load ings o f all classes o f freight, with the exception o f grain and livestock, were smaller than in May 1923. W hole sale trade decreased slightly in M ay and was 6 per cent, less than in M ay 1923. Sales o f dry goods, shoes, and hardware were much smaller than a year ago, while drug sales were slightly larger. Retail trade at depart ment stores and mail order houses declined during May more than is usual at that season and was smaller than last year. Department store stocks were 4 per cent, smaller in M ay than in A p ril and 3 per cent, larger than a year earlier. P rices Wholesale prices, as measured by the index o f the Bureau o f Labor Statistics, declined 1 per cent, during May to a level about 8 per cent, below the high point reached in the spring o f 1923. Prices o f all com modity groups, with the exception o f food, declined in May. PER CENT. Index of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (1913 = 100 Per cent. Base adopted by Bureau— Latest figure May) M O N TH LY REVIEW , JULY 1,1924 BILLIONS Of DOLLARS Index of Employment in Manufacturing Industries. Average = 100 Per cent.— Latest figure May) (1919 D uring the first h alf o f June quotations on wheat, corn, rye, and silk increased, while prices o f hogs, beef, cotton, and lumber declined. B a n k C redit Decreased demand fo r credit fo r current business re quirements between the middle o f M ay and the middle o f June was reflected in a smaller volume o f borrow ings fo r commercial purposes at member banks in lead ing cities. Further purchases o f corporate securities by these banks and larger loans on stocks and bonds, how ever, resulted in an increase fo r the month in their total loans and investments. There was: an unusually large increase in net demand deposits o f these banks, which carried the total o f these deposits to the highest figure on record. A t the Federal Reserve Banks between M ay 21 and June 18 there was a further decline in discounts fo r member banks and acceptances purchased in the open market. Government security holdings, on the other hand, increased and total earning assets were somewhat larger than a month ago. The prevailing ease in the money market was reflected in a further decline from 4^4 to 3 1 /2 - 3 % per cent, in rates on prime commercial paper in New York. The June 15 issue of six month Treasury certificates bore a rate o f 2 % per cent., com pared with 4 per cent, on a similar offering last December. Discount rates at the Federal Reserve Banks o f Cleve land, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and San Francisco were reduced from 4 % to 4 per cent, during June, and the rates in Boston, New York, and Phila delphia were reduced to 3^2 per cent. B a n k in g C o n d it io n s in t h e S e c o n d D i s t r i c t Banking transactions on June 16 included the re demption by the Treasury o f two maturing issues o f certificates and notes, together with the payment o f in terest on the public debt, and the collection o f the Member Bank Credit— Weekly Figures for 750 Member Banks in 101 Leading Cities— Latest figure June 11 second quarterly installment of income taxes. In addi tion to these usual transactions, the British Government paid into the Federal Reserve Bank fo r the account o f the Treasury $69,000,000, representing interest on its debt to this Government. These large transactions took place with a minimum o f disturbance to the money market. A lthough tax collections were considerably reduced by the new tax law, the excess o f Government disbursements over col lections here was smaller than usual at tax dates, partly because o f the British payment. In consequence, the customary loan by the Reserve Bank to the Treasury was small and was retired within three days. The loans o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f New Y ork directly to member banks were practically unchanged during the period occupied by these transactions, at a level approxim ately $20,000,000 lower than a month previous. Bills bought in the open market, however, increased somewhat and there was a rise also in hold ings o f Government securities so that the total earning assets o f this bank on June 18 were somewhat higher than at any time since A pril. D uring the five weeks ’ period ended June 18, the total loans and investments o f reporting member banks in this district advanced to a new high point since 1920. Loans made largely fo r commercial purposes were smaller, but loans on stocks and bonds increased, and total investments during the first three weeks in June were the highest in recent years. There was also an increase o f $377,000,000 in net demand deposits to a new high point, apparently reflecting in part the increase in loans and investments, the usual increase o f deposits at the tax dates, and gold imports. The diagram on the next page shows the changes in member bank credit in this district. W hile the general tendencies o f credit are similar to those in the country as a whole shown above, the fluctuations tend to be wider in the New Y ork district. D uring the past year the increase in net demand deposits has been particularly 3 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK marked in this district. It is also notable that the p ro portion o f demand deposits to time deposits is greater in the New Y ork district than fo r all districts, due to the influence of the figures fo r the New Y ork City banks where large balances are maintained fo r active commer cial and financial use. f BILLIONS OF DOLLARS latter part o f May, declined to a level o f 2 per cent, in June. Ordinarily money rates in this market are higher than those in London, but as the result o f the marked easing that has taken place here in the past few months, this situation has been reversed fo r the first time in recent years. The accom panying diagram compares the rates on three months bank bills in London and the Bank of England discount rate with the rates fo r 90-day bankers acceptances and the Federal Reserve Bank rate in New York. Such a shift in rates as has recently taken place tends to make New Y ork a more favorable market fo r international borrowing. In the diagram, the rate quoted fo r bills in London is that at which dealers buy bills, while the rate fo r bills in New Y ork is the rate at which dealers offer bills. This is usually y$ o f one per cent, below the buying rate. Member Bank Credit in the Second Federal Reserve District. Weekly figures for 108 banks in 8 leading cities— Latest figures June 18 M o n e y R a tes The easing in money conditions which developed in May became much more pronounced in June, and rates generally declined to the lowest levels since 1917. F a c tors which contributed to the decline included a further reduction in industrial and commercial demands fo r credit, and a continuation o f gold imports averaging over $1,000,000 a day. A n active demand from New Y ork City and interior banks fo r commercial paper coupled with a limited supply, caused a reduction in open market rates from 4^4 per cent, to 3 % -3 % per cent., and in some cases to 3 % per cent. A further decline in May of $24,000,000 to $859,000,000 in the volume o f paper outstanding through 26 reporting dealers accompanied the contrac tion in commercial borrowings at banks. In the bill market, rates declined 1 per cent, to 2 per cent, on maturities up to 90 days. A t these levels rates were lower than at any time since 1916. D ealers’ port folios of bills in the latter part o f June were close to the low point for the year. The June offering of approxim ately 150 millions six m onths’ Treasury certificates, bearing 2% per cent, interest, compared with 4 per cent, on the six m onths’ issue sold in December, was heavily oversubscribed. Y ields on outstanding short term issues declined from % to 1 per cent, in the month ended June 26. Time money rates on stock exchange collateral de clined 1 per cent, to 2% -3 per cent., and call loan re newals, which averaged about 3 per cent, during the X9ZZ 192.3 192,4 1922. 1923 1924 M o n e y R a te s — N e w Y o rk and Lond on S e c u r it y M a r k e t s A ctive trading in the bond market and a sharp ad vance in prices accom panied further easing o f money conditions in June. A ll active United States Govern ment issues except the 3 ^ reached prices higher than ever before at V /2 to 5 % points above par. Representa tive averages o f the general bond list were carried to levels about 3 % points higher than at the beginning o f the year, and there were advances in foreign issues, which heretofore this year had been little changed. The diagram on the next page shows by months over a period o f years the movement of the Annalist average of 40 bonds and Liberty fourth 4 1/4s, the longest term issue of the Liberty group. New securities offered, other than United States Gov ernment issues, totaled approxim ately $450,000,000 in the fou r weeks ended June 21, the largest volume since February. The largest o f these issues were offerings o f $67,000,000 New Y ork City bonds and corporate stock, and $35,000,000 in farm loan bonds. There were also several large railroad and public utility issues, p rin cipally fo r refunding purposes. The volume o f foreign issues was relatively small. MONTHLY REVIEW, JULY 1, 1924 4 Trading in the stock market was likewise more active and prices showed an upw ard tendency. R ailroad and public utility issues were particularly strong, and in many cases reached new high prices fo r the year. There was also a moderate recovery in industrial issues from the low point of the year. The banks in this district also forw arded during the past thirteen months $32,000,000 to Cuba by wire trans fer through the Federal Reserve System, including both the Boston and Atlanta Federal Reserve Banks. O f this amount, $17,000,000 was forw arded during the first five months o f this year. F o r e ig n E x c h a n g e Average Monthly Price of 40 Miscellaneous Bonds and of the Fourth Liberty 4 * 4 — Latest figures June F o r e ig n S h ip m e n t s o f U n i t e d S t a t e s C u r r e n c y The return flow of United States currency from cir culation abroad, which became noticeable in A pril, assumed larger proportions in May, according to re ports from the banks in New Y ork City which are the largest shippers of currency to foreign countries. The total net receipts in May, amounting to $4,614,000, were the largest fo r any month in the past year, and com pared with net shipments of $5,526,000 in February when the export movement reached its height. This shift in the direction of currency movement reflects principally a falling off in the shipments to central and eastern Europe, and an increase in receipts from E n g land, Germany, and Switzerland. The follow ing table gives the figures by months from May 1923 through May 1924. Month Shipments Receipts Net Shipments 1923 M ay................... June................... July................... Aug.................... Sept.................... Oct..................... Nov.................... Dec..................... $ 3,916,000 2,473,000 3,051,000 1,684,000 7,842,000 3,095,000 3,195,000 3,825,000 $ 2,341,000 2,568,000 2,824,000 6,161,000 3,723,000 2,109,000 1,821,000 933,000 $ 1,575,000 227,000 ------4,119,000 986,000 1,374,000 2,892,000 ------95,000 ------4,477,000 ------------------------- 1924 Jan..................... Feb..................... Mar.................... Apr..................... M ay................... 5,694,000 6,989,000 2,095,000 940,000 292,000 1,374,000 1,463,000 2,074,000 2,601,000 4,906,000 4,320,000 5,526,000 21,000 ------------- ------------------ 1,661,000 4,614,000 Total............. $45,091,000 $34,898,000 $21,040,000 $10,847,000 The weakness in French exchange which accompanied the overthrow o f the Poincare m inistry in M ay was follow ed by greater firmness in June as the new Govern ment became established. Francs, which on June 2 fell slightly below 5 cents, or approxim ately 29 per cent, from the high point touched in A p ril, recovered to nearly 5 ^ cents. Similar movements took place in Belgian exchange, and sterling, which had sold down to $4.30 at the first o f June, recovered to approxim ately $4.33. Italian lire continued steady at slightly under 4 % cents, and other European currencies, except Spanish pesetas, which were weak, were com paratively little changed. Japanese exchange gained 1 cent to 4 1 % cents by June 23, or 3 cents above the recent low point. Chinese rates were firm, accom panying an advance in the price o f silver to 67% cents, the highest since May 1923, and approxim ately 3 cents above the average of the early months o f the year. The advance accom panied strength in London and was generally ascribed to increased demand, particularly from Russia and other European countries fo r coinage purposes. The follow ing diagram compares the movements o f the leading exchanges by months since 1919. Net Receipts $ Depreciation of Foreign Exchange Rates from Par Value— Latest figures June G o ld M o v e m e n t Gold imports during M ay totaled $41,074,000 and exports $593,000, making the net inflow $40,481,000. Of the imports, slightly more than half came from England, $6,000,000 from Sweden, $5,000,000 from the Nether lands, and approxim ately $2,000,000 each from Canada, H ong Kong, and Germany. 5 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK Total net gold imports since the first o f the year were $197,474,000, com pared with $90,756,000 in the corre sponding period o f 1923. A pproxim ately $97,000,000 o f the imports this year came from England, compared with $41,000,000 fo r the first five months of 1923. In the first fou r weeks of June imports o f gold through the P ort o f New Y ork alone were about $22,000,000 com pared with $32,000,000 in the corresponding period of May. F o r e ig n T r a d e Imports and exports o f merchandise were smaller in May than in A pril, in keeping with the usual seasonal tendency. The decline, however, was more marked in the case of imports, which at $305,000,000 were the smallest since January, and $68,000,000 smaller than in May 1923. E xports at $336,000,000 were only slightly smaller than in A p ril and approximately $20,000,000 larger than in M ay last year. In conse quence o f this there was an export balance fo r the month o f $31,000,000, compared with an im port balance o f $56,000,000 in M ay last year. Cotton exports, which had been declining steadily since the seasonal peak reached in December, increased slightly in May and were more than double those o f May last year. Cereal exports, however, were valued at only 43 per cent, o f the M ay 1923 total, and meat products were only 68 per cent, o f last y e a r’s figures. Silk imports, after reaching the lowest point in three years in March, increased 27 per cent, in A p ril and 40 per cent, in May, and were 15 per cent, larger than in May last year. Rubber imports declined from the A p ril total which was the largest ever reported. Production lou 100 vv J 50 (L ^ 0 150 A BITUMINOUS \C 0 A L i A j A _ ______ -4______ 10Q r V > 50 r - i v Y s > In the textile industry a further decrease o f 14 per cent, in cotton consumption carried this ban k ’s index down to 70 per cent, o f the computed trend, the lowest since January 1921. W oolen m ill activity was slightly lower at 84 per cent. ft & \ * f 7ANTHRACITE * COAL ...-.1 1$0 \ 1 WOOL CONSUMPTION rt* 100 r P ~ r.OCOTTON N.SIIMDTIf■)N J ......... 50 150 I BOOTS &SHOIES • SOLE LEATHEf^"^ 50 U Y CEMENT' oY D 0 umber cut 0 150 100 50 0 i5 0 Further marked declines occurred in M ay in this bank’s indexes of production in basic industries. A n additional decrease of 19 per cent, in the production o f p ig iron to the smallest amount since September 1922 was reflected by a decline in this bank’s index o f pro duction to approxim ately 20 per cent, below normal, as measured by the trend o f past years. There was also a large decline in the output o f steel ingots, and unfilled orders o f the United States Steel Corporation reached the lowest point since November 1914. The output o f bituminous coal, though slightly larger than in A pril, was 32 per cent, smaller than in May a year ago, and this bank’s index at 77 per cent, o f the computed trend was the lowest since the strike period o f 1922. Production of automobiles continued to decline and was 20 per cent, below that o f M ay 1923, though still above the computed trend. The truck output also showed a considerable decrease and was about 10 per cent, below the trend. STEE L - t A / f INGOT 5Z / V p IGnN 100 / lA AUTOMOBIL Passenger ^vs L -J \ A \/ 50 A /| TRUCKS v* V'--: 0 150 PA PER UCTION Aa 100 AA COh^SUMPTION 50 1916 1919 1920 *192.1 1 922 1923 1924 M o n t h ly P r o d u c tio n in B a s ic In d u s tr ie s . S e a s o n a l V a r ia t io n A llo w e d F o r . (C o m p u te d tr e n d o f p a s t y e a r s = 100 P e r c e n t.) Reflecting activity in the building industry, on the other hand, the index o f cement production was slightly higher. Copper production continued at a high level and there were increases also in the indexes o f meat slaughtered and flour milling. The accom panying dia gram shows the changes in a number o f this bank’s indexes o f production during the past six years, and the follow ing table gives the index numbers fo r recent months fo r a larger number o f industries. In both cases, the figures are expressed as percentages o f the com puted trend, after allowance fo r seasonal variation. MONTHLY REVIEW, JULY 1, 1924 (Computed trend of past years=100 Per cent.) Producers' Goods Pig iron..................................................... Steel ingots.............................................. Bituminous coal..................................... Copper, U. S. mines.............................. Tin deliveries.......................................... Zinc*......................................................... Petroleum................................................ Gas and fuel oil...................................... Cotton consumption............................. Woolen mill activity*........................... Cement..................................................... Lumber..................................................... Leather, sole........................................... Consumers' Goods Cattle slaughtered................................. Calves slaughtered................................ Sheep slaughtered.................................. Hogs slaughtered................................... Sugar meltings, U. S. ports................. Wheat flour............................................. Cigars....................................................... Cigarettes................................................. Tobacco, manufactured....................... Gasoline................................................... Tires*. ...................................................... Newsprint................................................ Paper, total............................................. Boots and shoes..................................... Anthracite coal....................................... Automobile, all....................................... Automobile, passenger.......................... Automobile, truck................................. 1923 1924 May Mar. Apr. 124 122 114 95 114 83 139 96 108 118 133 125 96 105 101 81 115 95r 74 89 81 77 96 99 99 73 143 96 78 73 78 125r 127 128 111 110 82 95 151 129 75 82 87 136 100 119 88 122 123 118 121 113 122 106 130 89 126 117 117 77 85 97 128 150 114 107 118 130 104 89 93 103 108 162 124 114 114 98 146 150 130 May 81 79 96 130 156 106 100 91 96 131 138 111 *70 84p 139 71 101 85 125 131 101 102 118 127 101 118 103 122 85 92 101 119 102 91p 88 108 113 *=Seasonal variation not allowed for, p=Preliminary. r=Revised. I n d e x e s o f B u s in e s s A c t i v i t y In most cases indexes of trade and general business activity were lower in May than in A pril. There was a particularly large decline in the wholesale trade index, and in those fo r railway traffic, though traffic remained approximately at normal as measured by the computed trend. Noteworthy changes among indexes o f distribu tion to consumer included a decline in department store trade, and in sales by mail order houses. The index of chain store sales, however, remained unchanged. Notwithstanding the large decline in production and certain phases o f distribution, the index o f bank debits outside o f New Y ork remained at a relatively high level, and that of debits in New Y ork City showed a substan tial increase. Postal receipts also were slightly above the computed trend, but employment in New Y ork State factories showed a continued decline. There was a fu r ther increase in the percentage o f business failures to the number o f firms in business. B u ild in g Contracts fo r building construction awarded during May in 36 States were 13 per cent, smaller than in A p ril and 3 per cent, smaller than in M ay a year ago, according to the F . W . Dodge Corporation. The decline from A p ril resulted chiefly from a decrease o f 35 per cent, in the New Y ork District, follow in g the very large reduction during A p ril in building permits issued in New Y ork City. F o r all other reporting sec tions awards in M ay were practically the same as in A pril. The decline in the New Y ork D istrict was due largely to a further decrease in residential awards, which ac counted fo r 49 per cent, o f the total construction in May, com pared with an average o f 60 per cent, in the preceding fo u r months. Both in this district and in other reporting districts, however, residential awards continued to be larger than last year. Notwithstanding the considerable decline in May, the monthly average o f total contracts awarded throughout the country during the first five months o f this year was 12 per cent, larger than fo r the corresponding period o f last year. The follow ing diagram, com paring the average monthly contract awards both by sections o f the country and by types o f construction, indicates the importance o f residential building, particularly in the New Y ork District, in these totals. 387 (Computed trend of past years=100 Per cent.) 387 34-5 19 24 1923 May ALL OTHER Mar. Apr. May P rim a ry Distribution Car loadings, merchandise and miscellaneous............... Car loadings, other............................................................... Wholesale trade, Second District...................................... Exports.................................................................................... Imports.................................................................................... Grain exports.......................................................................... Panama Canal traffic........................................................... 108 119 100 83 130 143 150 108 113 97 84 102 73 138 110 102 97 90 112 75 129 99 100 86 91 110 65 Distribution to Consumer Department store sales, Second District*...................... Chain store sales*.................................................................. Mail order sales..................................................................... Life insurance paid for......................................................... Amusement receipts............................................................. Magazine advertising........................................................... Newspaper advertising......................................................... 99 99 110 105 108 98 103 90 96 85 103 104 91 96 95 97 105 112 113 102 95 93 97 99 102 108 102 94 General Business Activity Bank debits, outside of New York City.......................... Bank debits, New York City............................................. Postal receipts........................................................... ............ Electric power........................................................................ Employment, N. Y . State factories..................... ............ Business failures.................................................................... 113 105 104 112 103 96 102 104 96 109 99 104 107 105 102 109 97 108 105 109 101 *=>Allowance made for late Easter. *93 113 PUBLIC UTIL: & WORKS 53 BUSINESS & INDUSTRIAL RESIDENTIAL 19 2,3 19 24- By Districts 19 2 3 19 2 4 By Types of Construction Monthly Average of Building Contracts for first five months of 1923 and 1924 (in millions of dollars) FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK 7 Employment and Wages W h o le s a le T r a d e The decline in factory employment that became marked in A p ril was still more pronounced in May. A reduction o f 4 per cent, was reported by both the New Y ork State and Federal Labor Departments, which, added to the previous m onth’s decline, makes the largest decrease in employment since the end o f 1920. Since a year ago, the decrease has amounted to about 11 per cent. State employment offices report that farm work, building, and road construction continue to absorb many workers released by other industries. The ratio o f re quests for workers to applications fo r work, however, after a temporary rise in the early spring, has been declining steadily. F actory employment has been maintained most con sistently in the building materials and railway equip ment and repair industries. A ctivity continues to be at a low level in the textile and clothing industries, and there have been additional declines in the metal working industries, especially those connected with automobile manufacturing, and in home furnishings lines, such as furniture, pianos, and rugs. Average weekly earnings o f factory workers in May declined fo r the first time in nearly two years and were slightly lower than in M ay a year ago. The accom panying diagram, com paring employment, total pay rolls, and average weekly earnings in New Y ork State factories, indicates that earnings have shown unusual stability during the past year, varying less than 2 per cent, above or below the May average. Such declines as have occurred apparently have been due chiefly to reduced working time, rather than to wage cuts. Throughout the active business o f 1923 and the first months o f 1924 the number o f workers in the factories of this State, and the total payrolls, were considerably smaller than at the high point reached in 1920. The average weekly earnings of those employed, however, stood close to the 1920 level. Sales in eleven lines o f wholesale trade in this district averaged 11 per cent, smaller in M ay than in M ay 1923, according to reports from 163 dealers. The actual vol ume o f sales was the smallest since July 1922, and this bank’s index, in which allowance is made fo r seasonal variation and price changes, was 14 per cent, below the trend o f past years and at the lowest point since Janu ary 1921. The movement o f the index is shown in the accom panying diagram. PERCENT. 300r ...............I ........ ^ TOTAL /^ V WAGE 0 ^PAYMENTS 250 s ZOO \ V ^ 150 100 Y / ' - MR CENT I 100*y f l S COMPUTED JWW TREND DEPY. 5T<>RE TRADE 50 1Q19 19Z0 Dollar Value of May Sales (May 1923=100 Per cent.) FACTORY EMPLOY!^1ENT 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 (6) Women’s dresses........................... (c) Women’s coats and suits............. 87 129 157 114 156 110 116 104 136 152 177 103 152 60 81 84 81 90 74 69 96 103 88 46 91 29 70 77 58 74 90 86 90 84 63 87 95 78 73 77 34 74 84 69 65 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 113 100 99 92 91 91 84 97 83 82 80 74 73 57 92 Weighted average................................ 129 84 84 100 89 (a) Cotton............................................. (b) Silk................................................... 50 Machine Tools.......................................... 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 Changes in Employment, in Total Wage Payments, and Average Weekly Wage Earnings in New York State Factories— Latest figure May (June 1914 = 100 Per cent.) 1924 * l/ERAGE wiEEKLY EAIRNINGS 1919 1923 Cotton goods sales were the smallest for this time o f year in five years, and sales o f clothing, especially dresses and m en ’s clothing, also showed unusually large decreases. Sales o f silk goods, while smaller than last year, decreased much less than those o f cotton goods. Hardware sales continued to show less favorable com parisons with last year, while those o f machine tools were 20 per cent, smaller than in M ay 1923. Only in drugs did sales exceed those o f last May, although stationery sales were maintained at the same level as a year ago. The follow ing table compares sales fo r the different lines in May o f the past five years. 1914 1918 1922 192.1 Monthly Sales of Wholesale Dealers and Department Stores in the Second Federal Reserve District. Seasonal Variation Allowed For. (Computed Trend = 100 Per cent. Latest figures May) * JV H i f v \ 93 *86 fWHOLE^Alt r TRADE MONTHLY REVIEW, JULY 1, 1924 changes in department store sales and stocks in this district fo r May. D e p a rtm e n t S tore B u sin ess Departm ent store sales in this district in May wer& 1 per cent, larger than in M ay 1923. F o r some years department store business has been growing at the rate o f about 8 per cent, a year and the May increase o f only 1 per cent, over M ay last year is the smallest increase over the previous year since J uly 1922, except in March, when sales were delayed by the late Easter. This bank’s index o f sales, after allowance fo r seasonal variation and price changes, stood at 93 per cent, o f normal as indi cated by the trend of past years. The diagram on the preceding page shows the recent course of this index in conjunction with the index o f wholesale trade. Sales of furniture continued larger than a year ago, but those o f house furnishings, such as rugs, draperies, lamps, and decorative articles showed a decrease. Sales o f w om en’s ready-to-wear goods and hosiery were also substantially larger than last year, but sales o f other types o f wearing apparel showed only small increases or declines. C h a in S t o r e S a le s Sales in M ay by all types o f chain store systems were 12 per cent, larger than in M ay 1923, due in large part to the opening o f new stores. In the cases o f ten cent and tobacco stores, however, there were increases also in the sales per store. This ban k ’s index o f chain store sales fo r M ay stood at 97 per cent, o f the com puted trend, a figure identical with that fo r A pril. The follow ing table shows the detailed changes fo r the different types o f stores. Number of Stores Type of Store May 1923 May 1924 Shoes..................... Tobacco................ Drug..................... 438 1,827 15,057 129 301 2,747 309 575 1,930 18,171 142 367 2,758 317 69 75 81 77 103 99 90 72 73 64 79 94 95 91 79 84 77 84 87 94 90 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total................. 20,808 24,260 81 71 81 100 Ten Cent.............. Grocery................ Per cent. Change in Sales over May 1923 Women’s ready-to-wear................................................. Furniture......................................................................... Hosiery............................................................................ Cotton goods................................................................... Men’s and boys’wear..................................................... Women’s ready-to-wear accessories.............................. Woolen goods.................................................................. Home furnishings....................................................... Shoes................................................................................ Silk goods........................................................................ Miscellaneous.................................................................. Per cent. Sales of each Dept, to Sales of all Departments 102 — 8.8 + 7.5 — 7.1 + 1.1 — 13.4 + 4.6 — 0.7 112 — 4.1 120 114 112 111 106 105 13.2 + 7.9 H- 6.6 + 5.5 + 4.2 + 2.7 + 1.7 + 0.8 — 1.0 — 4.3 — 5.7 + 5.6 6.1 3.3 4.5 7.0 17.0 1.4 15.4 3.6 5.1 23.4 C rop s Stocks o f merchandise on hand on June 1 were 2 per cent, larger than a year previous, compared with an increase of 5 per cent, in each o f the previous four months, and an average increase o f 10 per cent, in the months from September to January. The number o f sales transactions was 2 ^ 2 per cent, larger than a year ago, and the average sales check $2.81, com pared with $2.87 in M ay 1923. Sales by mail order houses were 7 per cent, smaller in May than in M ay a year ago, compared with an increase of 10 per cent, in A pril. A fter allowing for the usual seasonal variation and price changes, mail order sales were approxim ately normal, as determined by the trend o f past years, com pared with 5 per cent, above in A pril. The follow ing table gives the detailed Net Sales During May (May 1923=-=100 Per cent.) Per cent. Change in sales per store May 1923 to May May May May May 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 May 1924 Dollar Value in Percentages A ccord in g to the June report o f the Department o f A griculture the average condition o f crops was lower at this season than in any o f the past twelve years fo r which composite figures are available. The condition o f the cotton crop was placed at 65.6, the lowest in over 50 years, excepting only 1920, and 5.4 points lower than a year ago. The com bined spring and winter wheat crop at 76.0 was 3.9 points lower than a year ago, and this decline in condition together with a reduction o f 8 per cent, in acreage planted forecasts a wheat crop 12 per cent, smaller than last year. The follow ing table in millions o f bushels compares the June forecasts o f yields this year with the final estimates fo r 1923 and with a five year average. (millions of bushels) Crop Stock on Hand June 1 (June 1, 1923=100 Per cent.) Peaches................................................... 1918-1922 Average Harvest 1923 Harvest 1924 June forecast 625 256 881 1,303 186 78 44 572 213 786 1,300 198 63 46 509 184 693 1,232 160 63 53 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 88 New York............ 107 Buffalo.................. 90 92 Newark................ Rochester............. 91 Syracuse............... 96 Bridgeport........... 109 Elsewhere, 2dDist. 100 Apparel................ 84 90 83 89 91 98 91 89 All dept stores.. 101 Mail order houses. 90 88 61 92 92 83 88 88 92 93 93 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 91 100 721 100 101 • 111 98? 107 115 97 122 105 141 103 115 94 96 99 91 no 101 93 110 101 94 91 84 85 93 98 90 93 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 92 93 100 102 94 97 87 87 111 95 93 86 96 102 92 107 98 103 111 Follow ing the publication o f the June estimates, wheat prices advanced 10 cents a bushel to $1.24, the highest level in a year. Corn rose to 99 cents on June 26, or about 20 cents higher than in the first week o f June. Cotton on the other hand held steady despite the low condition and at 30.50 cents on June 26 was about 1 cent below the average price in May.
@FedFRASER