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MONTHLY REVIEW o f C r e d it a n d S e c o n d Federal Reserve Agent B u s in e s s F e d e r a l R e s e r v e C o n d itio n s D is t r ic t Federal Reserve Bank, New York Business Conditions ip the United States O LUM E of output of industry decreased further in December to the lowest level in more than a year, and wholesale prices continue to decline. Easier conditions in the money market in January re flected the usual seasonal liquidation after the turn of the year. V P r o d u c t io n In December, for the third consecutive month, there was a decrease in industrial production, and the Board’s new index, with adjustment for seasonal variations, was 105 on the basis of the average for 1923, 1924, and 1925 as 100. This compares with 113 in September, the high point of the year, and with 108 a year ago. The decline since the recent high point has been entirely in the manu facturing industries, as the output of minerals was at a record high level in November and showed only a slight decline in December. By far the greatest recession of recent months has been in the automobile industry, out put of passenger cars and trucks in the United States decreasing from 425,000 in August to 165,000 in Decem ber. Reduction in the manufacture of automobiles is usual at the end of the year, when plants close for inventory taking and repairs, but in December 1926, the decline was considerably larger than usual. Production of iron and steel has also been sharply reduced since the February 1, 1927 middle of autumn, and activity in the woolen and worsted and silk industries has been somewhat curtailed. Production of lumber, cement, and other building ma terials has reflected the usual winter decrease in demand. Cotton consumption, on the other hand, was larger than in any previous December. Factory employment and payrolls declined further in December, reflecting de creases in nearly all industries except cotton goods, cloth ing, foundries and machine shops, and printing and publishing. The value of building contracts awarded in December, as in November, was larger than in the corresponding period a year earlier, but for the first three weeks of January contracts were in smaller volume than during the same weeks of 1926. This decline in January was largely concentrated in the New York and Atlanta Fed eral Reserve districts, where building was unusually ac tive a year ago. Residential contracts were smaller in December than a year earlier in nearly all districts, the increase in the total for the month being in other types of building. T rade Retail sales during the holiday trade in December exceeded all previous records. Sales of department stores were approximately 3 per cent larger than in December of last year, and sales of mail order houses, while slightly smaller than in 1925, were larger than in TERC N . ET Index Numbers of Production of Manufactures and Minerals, Adjusted for Seasonal Variations. (1923-25 average — 100 per cent). Price Indexes of United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1913 average — 100 per cent). MONTHLY REVIEW, FEBRUARY 1, 1927 10 Xiams ofD LA S OL R PfflCENT z -------- ------ TO TAL -R S R Em m A EEV CREDIT p VS. SECU 7 £ 5 RL JdlSCOUNT^ , ^ -fb r M BER. EM * J BANKS . \ } 1.181 (sio - V- *354 *3 1 3 *> /r / s S .; / KcEPTATiCES A . f Index o f Sales o f 359 Department Stores, A djusted for Seasonal Variations and Unadjusted (1919 = 1 0 0 per cen t). the corresponding month o f any other year. Sales at wholesale, on the other hand, declined in December and were smaller than a year ago in practically all leading lines, except shoes. Merchandise stocks carried by de partment stores were reduced slightly more than is usual in December and were somewhat smaller at the end of the month than in 1925, and wholesale stocks were also slightly smaller than a year ago. Freight car loadings showed about the usual seasonal decline in December, with shipments of all groups o f com modities, except coal and merchandise in less than car load lots, in smaller volume than a year earlier. P r ic e s Wholesale prices declined further in December, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics index at 147 fo r that month was at the lowest level since the middle o f 1924. Prices o f agricultural products, which declined consid erably in October and November, increased slightly in December, owing to advances in prices o f grains and cattle. In the first three weeks of January there were further increases in grains, and advances also in cotton, hogs, and flour. Prices o f non-agricultural products de clined in December owing chiefly to decreases in bitumi nous coal, clothing materials, nonferrous metals, and building materials. In January iron and steel prices were slightly reduced and there were further declines in bituminous coal and nonferrous metals, while prices of cotton goods and coke advanced. B a n k C r e d it A t the Reserve Banks during the fou r weeks follow ing the peak o f the seasonal currency demand, there was a return flow o f Federal Reserve notes and other cash from circulation amounting in the aggregate to about $400,000,000. This return flow o f currency was in about the same volume as a year ago, and, together with substantial gold imports, was reflected in a reduc tion o f the volume o f Reserve Bank credit in use to a level on January 19 lower than at any time since the summer o f 1925. Loans and investments of member banks in leading cit 19 Z 5 19 £4 ......................-........... 19Z 5 1926 1927 M onthly Averages o f Daily Figures for A ll Federal Reserve Banks. Latest Figures are Averages of First 23 Days of January. ies, after increasing to a record level at the end o f the year, declined sharply in January. Commercial loans, which had reached their seasonal peak in November, were in the middle o f January about $200,000,000 below the maximum figure but still more than $300,000,000 above the level o f a year ago. Loans on securities o f the re porting banks also declined after the turn o f the year follow ing a large increase in December and were slightly smaller than in January o f last year. Money Market Changes in money rates during the past month have reflected chiefly year-end conditions very similar to those o f a year previous, except fo r the additional factor o f large gold im ports in January. Call loan rates after advancing to a maximum o f 6 per cent near the end o f December, declined early in January to 4 per cent. Smaller declines occurred in time money, commercial paper, and acceptance rates. The follow in g table indi cates the changes during the past month and also com pares present money rates with those o f a year ago. M oney Rates at New York Jan. 28 1926 *4 Tim e M oney— 90 d a y ........................................... Prime Commercial P ap er..................................... Bills— 90 day unendorsed.................................... Treasury Certificates and Notes Maturing March 15........................................... M aturing June 1 5 .............................................. Federal Reserve Bank of New Y ork— Rediscount R a te................................................ Federal Reserve Bank of New Y ork— Buying R ate for 90 day Bills.......................... Dec. 27 1926 *5 }/ 6 2— Jan. 28 1927 3H — 3H 4H 3% — 3% *4 4H 4— 4 % 3 y 8— 3 % 3 .3 5 3 .3 2 2 .9 7 3.02 3 .4 0 3.31 4 3Y% 4 4 3X 3H *=* Prevailing rate for preceding week. Changes in currency in circulation continued to have an im portant influence on the New Y ork m oney market. The amount o f currency in use throughout the country, follow in g an increase o f at least $300,000,000 from No vember 15 to Christmas declined more than $450,000,000 during the subsequent month, which reduced the amount in circulation to the lowest level in a year. Gold imports 11 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK BLN fDL S I I S OA LO o L R JilLUONS c/DOLLARS 1700r t1!LU0H5qfJ>0LUR5 500r l )25~Z( 1 N< r i / n t r TOTALBIL IS ;J 4 0 0 & 5i ECUR111ES <926-27 J v -* 19 Z 5 ■26 19k\5 -Z € \t\ PISm u m 19Z6-S7 V > CUR RENC t CIRCrULATlION 1 8 15 22 DECEMBER 29 5 12 19 26 • JANUARY A U . F.RJBANKS 1 I ! 6 15 DECEMBER. 1 | £9 . 5 1& 19 JANUARY 26 r 1 1i1 1 Year End Call Loan Rates, Federal Reserve Discounts, Total Bills and Securities, and W eekly Estimates of Currency Circulation. from Canada, France, and other countries, in the first 28 days o f January, totaled $55,000,000. The crediting o f a considerable amount o f returned currency and most o f the im ported gold to member banks in this district, together with a reduction o f $40,000,000 in the reserve requirements o f leading New Y ork City banks, as tem porary needs fo r year-end funds passed, resulted in the retirement by January 26 o f more than $175,000,000 o f loans at the Federal Eeserve Bank of New York. The diagrams above show call loan rates, bill and security holdings o f the New Y ork Eeserve Bank and the System, and estimated currency circulation in the United States during December and January, compared with the corresponding period a year ago. Call money rates and the New Y ork Eeserve B an k ’s bill and security holdings showed approxim ately the same movement in both years. The average level of total bills and securities has been slightly higher this year, due to considerably larger holdings o f acceptances. F or the System as a whole, however, total bills and securities are under last year due largely to gold imports. Currency require ments are now approximately the same as a year ago. M em ber B a n k C redit Loans on stocks and bonds by member banks in the Second District showed the usual sharp increase at the end of the year, partly replacing a temporary reduction in loans to brokers placed in New Y ork fo r correspondent banks in other districts. The increase during the month ended January 5 amounted to about $300,000,000, but a reduction o f about $200,000,000 occurred in the follow ing two weeks. Commercial loans declined gradually from the high level o f December first, but changes in total loans and investments in this district reflected chiefly the movement of security loans. B ill M a r k et Although dealers’ purchases o f bills in the first part o f January were heavy, the demand, owing to excep tionally large buying orders fo r foreign account, sub stantially exceeded the supply, particularly in the 90 day maturity. Eeflecting this condition and the general ease in money rates which developed after the turn o f the year, dealers reduced rates on bills o f 60 days to 6 months maturity b y % per cent, making the offering rate on 90 day unindorsed bills 3 % per cent, the lowest since August. Follow ing this reduction, the supply o f bills continued large, but the demand was rather light except fo r irregular buying o f a substantial nature fo r foreign account, and some dealers advanced rates on 90 day bills Ys per cent, so that toward the close o f the month this maturity was offered at a range o f 3 % to 3 % per cent. C o m m e r c ia l P aper M ar k e t A good bank investment demand together with larger supplies o f paper contributed to a more active commer cial paper market in January. Eates on prime names generally eased ^ per cent to 4%: per cent, and in the M iddle W est where the best buying demand originated, a considerable amount o f paper was sold at 4 per cent. Borrowings o f commercial and industrial concerns in the open market increased follow in g the turn o f the year as has been the experience in past years, but were gener ally reported as somewhat smaller than in January 1926. This was in keeping with reports on paper outstanding, which totaled $526,000,000 fo r 26 dealers at the end of December, an amount 15 per cent smaller than a year ago. Gold Movement W ith the receipt o f $17,000,000 during December, im ports o f gold fo r the year 1926 reached a total o f nearly $213,500,000. E xports o f $7,000,000 brought the export total up to $115,700,000. F o r the entire year there were net imports o f slightly under $97,800,000, as com pared with net exports o f $134,000,000 in 1925, but, with the exception o f 1925, net imports o f gold in 1926 were the smallest in any year since 1920. O f the exports during December, $5,000,000 went to Germany, continuing the movement o f earmarked gold to the Eeichsbank, and $1,000,000 was shipped to the Dutch East Indies. Imports included $5,000,000 each from China and Chile, $4,000,000 from Japan, and $1,000,000 from England. The most important movements o f the year have been as follow s: the im port of $83,000,000 from Canada and the export o f $42,000,000 to that country in consequence 12 MONTHLY REVIEW, FEBRUARY 1, 1927 o f seasonal fluctuations in exchange; the im port of $5.1,000,000 from A ustralia; the im port of $24,000,000 from Mexico, largely due to special shipments by the Bank of Mexico, and partly offset by exports of $6,000,000; the import o f $21,000,000 from Chile, chiefly from the Central Bank o f Chile for the creation o f a reserve in New Y ork ; the im port of $14,000,000 from Japan, sent by the Japanese Government fo r the sup port o f its exchange; and the export of $48,000,000 to Germany, consisting chiefly of earmarked gold belonging to the Reichsbank. In January, follow ing the decline of Canadian ex change below the gold shipping point, there was an earlier and heavier gold movement from Canada than in either o f the two previous years. This movement amounted to $37,500,000 in the first 28 days o f January. In addition, gold imports at the Port o f New Y ork amounted to $17,700,000, including $14,700,000 from France and $2,600,000 from Chile, and exports totaled $14,500,000, of which $12,500,000 went to Germany. Security Markets the increase fo r the past month were larger amounts of industrial and public utility financing, and a rise in state and municipal issues, including an offering of $60,000,000 City of New Y ork 4 % per cent corporate stock. The longer maturity o f this issue sold on a 4.09 per cent yield basis, com pared with a yield of 4.15 per cent fo r a similar issue dated last February. New Financing in 1926 New securities, other than refunding issues, offered in the United States during 1926 reached a total of $6,311,000,000, the largest amount issued in any year on record, though only $87,000,000 larger than in 1925. M unicipal and farm loan financing continued to decrease and the total o f $1,402,000,000 was $123,000,000 smaller than a year previous. Foreign financing arranged in this country was slightly larger than in 1925. The fo l lowing table gives the totals of foreign issues offered in this country in recent years, and also indicates a ten dency fo r governmental issues to be replaced by cor porate borrowing. (In millions of dollars; refunding issues excluded) Industrial stocks continued in January the irregular decline which began late in December and at the end of the month representative price averages were several points below the December high levels. Railroad shares, however, showed increased activity and advanced slightly higher than in December. The bond market was very active and strong. Corpo ration bond averages advanced almost a point further to the highest levels since 1913, and foreign bonds on the average were quoted at the highest prices since the W ar. Most of the United States Government long term obliga tions sold at the highest prices since they were issued. The recent strength in the bond market is shown in the accom panying diagram. 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 553 221 121 54 712 293 599 496 603 674 275 1 ,0 0 5 1 ,0 9 5 1 ,1 5 5 552 Corporate security issues, including domestic and fo r eign, showed an increase o f about $250,000,000 over 1925. The increase was chiefly in long term bond issues, though common stock flotations continued to increase, P re ferred stock issues were considerably below the excep tionally large total fo r 1925, and the volume o f short term bond and note issues declined further. B orrow ings by public utility and industrial companies showed large increases over previous years, but realty issues showed little change from the large total o f 1925, and railroad financing continued to decrease. The composi tion of corporate financing during 1926 by type o f securi ties and by type of companies is shown in the accom pany ing diagram. 4 .3 5 7 4 ,3 5 7 4 ,1 0 0 ' 709 7/5 3 ,322 333 2 ,7 0 2 ; l a n d &■ 2.51 BUILDINGS COMMON STOCK 1510 PREFERD STOCK HAIL ROADS ■jGS: SHORTTERM v BONDS & NOTES'^ 883 ^ffilM NJNG 109Q & M S C L. LONG TERM BONDS & NOTES M onthly Average Prices o f Liberty Bonds, Dom estic Corporation Bonds, and Foreign Government Bonds in Per Cent of Par. January Estimated from Figures for First 27 Days. As is usual in the first month o f the year, new security offerings increased substantially and the total was larger than a year ago, and not fa r from that of January 1923, which was the largest on record. The chief elements in 1 1923 1924 1 925 1926) PUBLIC UTILITIES a H 1923 1924 1925 1926 Corporation Securities Offered in the United States, Classified by Type of Security and by Type o f Company. Refunding issues excluded. (In millions of dollars.) FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YO R K T h e F o r e ig n E x c h a n g e s The closing days of 1926 were marked by general strength in the European gold exchanges; in January this tendency was continued in sterling, but reversed in most of the Continental rates. Sterling, though stronger than in December, did not reach the levels of January 1926, but this fact is hardly surprising in view of the relative position of the New Y ork and London money markets during the past month as compared with the same period a year ago. The Continental gold exchanges were rather heavy, particularly German marks, Dutch florins, Swedish crowns, and Swiss francs. A m ong the unstabilized European rates, movements were diverse. French francs, since the last wT eek in D e cember, have continued to fluctuate in a narrow zone, the range fo r the first three weeks of January being between 3.98 cents and 3.94 cents. Italian lire declined from 4.51 cents at the beginning o f the month to 4.28 cents on the 25th; while Spanish pesetas, above 16.50 cents on the 27th, rose to the highest levels since July 1920. The Canadian dollar, which was over parity in early December, declined to 99.81 cents on January 11, giving rise to substantial gold shipments to New York. A r gentine pesos showed little change, but milreis, after a decline below 11.50 cents early in the month, recovered a part o f the loss. A m ong the Asiatic rates, the silver exchanges were strong, accom panying a rise in the price of silver above 57 cents, to the highest quotation since early October. Rupees maintained the recovery effected in December, but yen were rather heavy. Changes in Central Bank Discount Rates Easier money in European markets was reflected in reductions in the discount rate of banks of issue in the follow ing countries: Date of Change Latvia.............................................................. Germany.......................................................... Belgium........................................................... Austria............................................................. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 1, 11, 12, 18, 1927 1927 1927 1927 Rate Change to to to to 7 5 6x /z 6y from 8 from 6 from 7 from 7 The Imperial Bank of India raised its rate from 4 per cent to 5 per cent on the first of January, and to 6 per cent on the 13th of the month. Foreign Trade The value of our foreign merchandise trade declined during December and was slightly less than a year ago. Exports valued at $467,000,000 were only slightly smaller than in December 1925, but imports valued at $361,000,000 were $36,000,000 smaller. E xports of grain were sea sonally smaller, both in volume and in A^alue, than in November, but considerably larger than in December 1925. In actual volume, cotton shipments abroad were the largest fo r any month since November 1912. but in value were smaller than those of the previous month or o f a year ago. Quantity imports o f raw silk and crude 13 rubber were below the high figures in November, and together with coffee imports were also below December 1925. Total exports fo r the calendar year 1926 amounted to $4,810,000,000, or slightly less than in 1925, due largely to lower prices, while imports valued at $4,432,000,000 were larger than in the previous year. Consequently, the favorable balance o f $378,000,000 was the smallest, excepting 1923, since 1914. The decline o f over $200,000,000 in the value o f cotton exports more than ac counts fo r the loss in total exports. Meat exports also showed a decline, but grain shipments, despite the very low figures in the first half o f the year, were about equal to those o f 1925. Automobile exports, including passenger cars, trucks, and busses, were larger than in 1925, and finished manufactures as a whole showed a gain o f over $100,000,000. Bituminous coal exports in 1926 were more than double those o f 1925 and petroleum products also showed a considerable increase. Im ports of all economic groups except manufactured foodstuffs, including sugar, were larger than in 1925. Quantity receipts of raw silk, crude rubber, and coffee were from 3 to 10 per cent larger than in the preceding year. Wages and Employment W age rates paid to unskilled labor at the beginning of 1927, as reported to this bank by representative employ ers, showed only slight change from those o f six months ago. The average hourly rate showed a small reduction fo r the first time in two years, but owing to slightly longer schedules o f working hours than in the summer, the average weekly wage remained the same as last July. The railroads reported difficulty in securing enough track labor, especially in the vicinity o f New Y ork, but manufacturing industries reported a surplus o f unskilled labor in many localities, and o f skilled labor also in some cases. The rate o f turnover in factories tended to be somewhat lower than a year ago. Further evidence o f this appears in the ratio o f “ voluntary quits’ ’ to num ber employed as reported to the M etropolitan L ife In surance Company,— the December ratio was the lowest since the end o f 1924. Reports o f State and Federal Labor Departments showed a further decline in factory employment from November to December in New Y ork State and through out the country. There were further reductions in w ork ing forces in the iron and steel and automobile indus tries, in addition to seasonal curtailment in building materials, and the general level o f factory employment was about 3 per cent lower than in December 1925. Indexes of Business Activity Retail distribution o f merchandise in December was at a high level even fo r the time of year, but the indica tions o f other measures of business were somewhat mixed. Car loadings, foreign trade, advertising, and em ploy ment were somewhat smaller than in November, after allowance fo r the usual seasonal variations, while bank debits, stock trading, and postal receipts showed increases. MONTHLY REVIEW, FEBRUARY 1, 1927 14 Two of the best indicators of general business condi tions— loadings of merchandise and miscellaneous freight, and bank debits in 140 centers outside of New York— which have shown very similar movements in recent years, are shown in the accompanying diagram. Both of these indicate a moderate decline toward the end of 1926 to a level somewhat below that of a year previous. TER CENT. Building The building industry closed the year 1926 at a high level of activity, according to the F . W . Dodge Corpora tion’s reports. December awards of building and engi neering contracts were 10 per cent larger than in No vember and 2 per cent larger than a year ago. In the New York and Northern New Jersey district, contract awards were the largest on record, and, although the increase was due partly to the inclusion in the month’s figures of contracts for a large amount of subway con struction in New York City, all principal classes of building with the exception of residential, compared favorably with a year ago. For the year 1926, the volume of construction, as in dicated by contracts let, was 6 per cent larger than in 1925, and was the largest for any year on record. This increase occurred despite a decrease of about 4 per cent in residential building, as is indicated in the accompany ing diagram. Construction of public works and utilities and of commercial and industrial buildings has had an important influence in the maintenance of a large total of construction during the past year. 6,117 Indexes o f Merchandise and Miscellaneous Freight Loadings and of Bank Debits Outside o f New Y ork City, A djusted for Sea sonal Variations and Year to Year Growth, and in the Case o f Bank Debits, for Price Changes. Various indexes of business in per cent of trend, with allowance for seasonal variations, and, where necessary, for price changes, are shown below. (Computed trend of past years=1CM3 per cent) 1925 Dec. Prim ary Distribution Car loadings, merchandise and misc. r .. . Car loadings, other..................... ................ 1926 Oct. N ov. Dec. I ll r 106 89 124 47 104 llO r 107 92 124 71 84 108r 113 96 124 70 84 105r 112 92 p 117 p 63 84 100 102 134 113 126 102 108 105 99 119 109 102 108 111 102 98 120 117 100 111 108 107 101 138 121 111 122 100 113 122 108 106 112 102 108 126 103 105 129 189 98 117 103 107 169 122 99 115 146 98 113 102 111 137 112 101 124 195 105 Electric p ow er............... ............................... E m ploym ent in the United States........... Business failures........................................... Building perm its.......................................... New corporations formed in N. Y . State 100 115 207 108 112 104 101 160 127 General price le v e l....................................... 188 186 185 186 Grain exports................................................ Panama Canal traffic.................................. Distribution to Consumer Department store sales, 2nd D ist............ M ail order sales........................... ................. Life insurance paid fo r ................................ Real estate transfers.................................... Magazine advertising.................................. Newspaper advertising............................... General Business Activity Bank debits, outside of N. Y . C it y ......... Bank debits, New Y ork C it y ........... .. Bank debits, 2nd Dist. excl. N. Y . C ity . V elocity of bank deposits, outside N. Y . C ity .............................................................. V elocity of bank deposits, New Y ork C ity Shares sold on N. Y . Stock E xch an ge*.. *==Seasonal variations not allowed for. p=Preliminary. r=Revised. io 3 103 io ip 110 158 114 Building 1 9 2 .5 1923 192.4and Engineering Contracts Awarded in 36 Classified by Type o f P roject. (In millions of dollars.) 1926 States, The volume of building permits reported to S. W . Straus & Company in December was 2 per cent smaller than a year previous, and the total for the completed year was 5 per cent below 1925. The divergent tenden cies of these figures and those for building contracts may be explained by the inclusion in permit figures of a larger proportion of residential building and the ex clusion of important engineering projects. Residential building was the only class of construction to show a material reduction during the past year. Production Production in a majority of basic industries declined somewhat further in December, even after allowance for FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK the usual seasonal changes. The average daily output o f p ig iron was the smallest fo r any month of 1926, and, as was the case with steel ingot production, was sub stantially smaller than a year previous. Considerably more than the usual seasonal curtailment occurred in the automobile industry and December production of passenger cars and trucks was the smallest since early in 1922 and nearly 50 per cent below the total o f Decem ber 1925. More active operation has been resumed in January. Domestic consumption o f cotton was the largest ever recorded fo r any December, but silk and woolen mill activity was curtailed. In the follow ing table are given this ban k’s indexes of production in which allowance is made fo r seasonal variation and year-to-year growth. (Computed trend of past years=100 per cent) PAPER I S T A T IO N E R Y I DIAMONDS I DRUGS I SH OES I MACHINE T O O L S ! JEWELRY I GROCERIES I HARDWARE I SILK GOODS ! COTTON-JOBBERS I Dec. Oct. N ov. Producers' Goods Pig iro n ......................... Steel ingots................... Bituminous c o a l.......... Copper, U .S . m ines. . Tin deliveries............... Z in c................................ Petroleum ..................... Gas and fuel oi l . . . . . . Cotton con sum ption.. W oolen mill activity*. Cem ent.......................... Lum ber.......................... Leather, s ole ................ Silk consum ption*----- 112 123 116 103 109 113 116 107 106 96 124 113 68 122 Ill 107 109 109 96 118 119 98 98 103 126 104 74 130 108 103 129 114 124 116 124 100 102 102 123 99 79 129 105 105 128p 105 112 115 Consumers' Goods Cattle slaughtered................ Calves slaughtered............... Sheep slaughtered................. Hogs slaughtered................... Sugar meltings, U. S. ports. W heat flour............................ C igars....................................... Cigarettes................................ T obacco, m anufactured. . . . Gasoline................................... T ires. ....................................... Newsprint............................... Paper, t o ta l............................ B oots and shoes..................... Anthracite c o a l...................... Automobile, a ll...................... Automobile, passenger......... Automobile, tru ck................. 108 132 104 80 184 97 98 82 100 135 141 120 95 95 ** 149 153 132 101 102 102 90 144 93 111 70 101 142 127 125 86 100 * 98 112 112 110 101 107 105 82 126 86 119 69 101 148 119 129 93 95 90 105 104 110 102 115 123 76 *=Seasonal variation not allowed for. 1925 = 100.% MENS CLOTHING1926 1925 15 Dec. COITON-COMMISStONl W EN C0AT5-SUIT51 OM S * * = Strike. iio 99 p 120 113p 80 107 '94 100 72 101 ii9 89 98 p 97 p 78 73 101 p = Preliminary. WOMENS DRESSES | Sales o f Representative Dealers in Various Lines of W holesale Trade during 1926 Compared with 1925. erably smaller. Shoe sales, however, continued the ten dency o f most preceding months o f 1926 and were larger in December than a year previous. Machine tool sales in December, as in other recent months, were considerably smaller than a year previous, though substantial increases had been reported in the earlier months o f the year. Sales o f groceries, drugs, stationery, and diamonds also showed declines in the later months o f 1926, follow ing increases in the first half o f the year. H ardware sales, on the other hand, were larger in December than a year previous, after decreases had been reported in most previous months o f 1926. Stocks on hand at the close o f the year continued con siderably larger than in 1925 in silk goods, and some what larger in hardware and jew elry and diamonds. A slight increase was shown in job b e rs’ stocks o f cotton goods, but shoe stocks remained much smaller. Wholesale Trade Sales o f representative wholesale dealers in this dis trict, which in ten of the first eleven months of 1926 had averaged smaller than a year previous, continued in the final month o f the year to show a substantial reduction. F o r the year as a whole, a weighted average o f sales in all reporting lines shows a reduction o f 8 per cent from sales in 1925. Low er prices, especially fo r textiles, were probably responsible fo r a part, but not all, o f the decline. Most o f the larger declines in December sales com pared with those o f a year ago were in clothing and tex tiles, and, as the accom panying diagram shows, the same was true fo r the year as a whole. The w om en’s clothing business showed the most unfavorable comparisons with 1925, due partly to labor troubles, but sales o f m en ’s clothing, cotton goods, and silk goods also were consid- Percentage Change Percentage Change December 1926 from December 1925 in Net Sales Commodity Net Sales Groceries......................... Men's clothing.............. W om en’s dresses........... W om en’s coats and suits Cotton goods-Jobbers.. Cotton goods-Commission.............................. Silk goods....................... Shoes............................... D rugs............................... Hardware........................ Machine to o ls................ Stationery....................... Paper............................... D ia m o n d s ................. Jewelry............................ Weighted A ve ra g e ... * = Quantity not value. —- 6. —21. —23. — 0. Stock end of m onth A cct’s Receiv able -1 4 .7 -1 0 .4 — 7 .8 + 0 .4 5 .3 1.5 — 5 .6 — 12.3 • 4 .5 0 .7 — 5 .4 — 1.1 + 5-7 6 .4 5 .4 — 1.4 Collec tions — 5 .7 — 19.2 6 .5 •+ 4 .8 — 4 .5 — 23. + 2.1 — 16. —12. + 5. — 7. + 4. — 15. + 1 1 .4 * — 13.0 + 7.4 — 8. + 0. — 13 — 3. —11. + 4 .6 6.8 — 8.1 Dec. 1926 from N ov. 1926 — 8.2 Year 1926 from Year 1925 — 2.6 — 2 7.4 + 5 5 .0 — 29.1 — 11.4 — 7 .5 — 26.3 — 25.5 — 9 .1 + 4 .3 + 7 .2 + 1 1 .4 — 27.1 + 9 .0 — 4 .3 + 1 .4 — 1.7 — 17.1 — 9 .4 — 3 .7 — 11.4 — 6 .7 + 2.0 + 2 .4 — 2.8 — + + + — — 1 .4 4 .0 5 .0 3 .5 2 .5 7 .9 16 MONTHLY REVIEW, FEBRUARY 1, 1927 D e p a r t m e n t S to r e B u s in e s s A ccord in g to final reports, December department store sales were 4 per cent larger than a year ago, a slightly smaller increase than was indicated by business o f the first 24 days of the month. A pparel store sales increased nearly 5 per cent, but sales of mail order houses fell slightly below the high level o f December 1925. F or the first time in two years department store stocks at the end of month showed no increase over a year p re vious. Total sales o f department stores for the year 1926 were 4 per cent larger than in 1925, compared with increases of 5y2 and 4y2 per cent in the two previous years. Sales o f apparel stores and mail order houses increased 6 and 5 per cent respectively. Percentage Change December 1926 from December 1925 Locality Net Sales New Y o r k ................... + 3. B uffalo........................ 0 — 1. R ochester................... Syracuse...................... + 2. Newark....................... +10. B ridgeport.................. + 9. Elsewhere................... + 3. Northern N. Y . State — 0. Central N. Y . S tate.. + 6. Southern N. Y . State + 3. H udson River Valley + 2. Capital D is tr ic t... — 4. +19. W estchester........... Stock End of Month Collec tions* + 1.2 — 0.2 — 6 .3 + 3 .4 — 14.2 — 2.6 + 3 .4 + 1.9 + 2 .4 + 9 .5 + 9*9 — 0’4 A cc’ts Receiv able* Net +10.6 + 3 .7 + 1.6 — 2.0 +22.0 + 4 .4 — 2 .3 +i3!8 + 8.0 +11.2 + 5! 8 + 3 .4 •' Stock on Hand + 2.6 + 0 .4 + 2.2 — + + + 5 .3 7 .5 4 .4 3 .5 Chain Store Sales Aggregate December sales of chain stores in this dis trict were 14 per cent larger than a year ago, one o f the smallest increases reported in recent months. The in crease in average sales per store, however, was larger than in most months o f 1926, and in shoe chains it was the largest in more than two and a half years. Total sales fo r the year increased 17 per cent over 1925 due mainly to the large increases in sales of gro cery, variety, and drug stores which have each month in the year shown larger gains than the other types of stores. Moderate increases were reported fo r the year in all other lines, but, as the accom panying diagram shows, only in variety, grocery, and ten cent systems did the increases in sales exceed the expansion in number of stores in operation. TO TAL N U M B E R o f STO RES 1 925= SALES 1925= — 1.9 + 3 .6 1 0% 0 ____________ toofr + 2.0 + 6.1 — 1.0 + 1 5 .6 A ll department stores.. + 4 .3 0.1 Apparel stores. . . . M ail order houses. + 4 .8 + 1 6 .9 — 0.6 Percentage Change Year 1926 from Year 1925 and stationery, m en’s and b o y s’ wear, and hosiery. The increases in total sales fo r the year compared with those o f 1925 were especially large in books and stationery and furniture, and all other leading departments except silk and velvets, woolen goods, and musical instruments and radio apparatus showed at least moderate increases. The substantial reduction in radio sales follow ed a very large increase in 1925. + 2.6 +11.1 + 3 .9 + 2.8 + 6.2 + 1 3 .6 + 5 .0 *=Exclusive of instalment accounts. The rate o f turnover fo r the year was slightly higher than in 1925, although for the first half year it had been running somewhat behind a year ago. In the case of apparel stores, due to the considerably larger increase in stocks than sales, the turnover was not so high as last year. In December fo r the second consecutive month the largest increases were in sales o f shoes, furniture, books Percentage Change Percentage Change in Net Sales in Stock on Hand Department S h o e s .................................................................. Furniture............................................................ M en’s and B oys’ w ear..................................... Books and stationery...................................... H osiery................................................................ W om en’s ready-to-wear accessories............. M en’s furnishings............................................. T oys and sporting good s ................................ Luggage and other leather good s ................. W om en’s and Misses’ ready-to-wear........... H ome furnishings............................................. Linens and handkerchiefs.............................. Toilet articles and drugs................................ Silverware and jew elry.................................... C otton good s..................................................... Silks and velv ets.............................................. Musical instruments and radio..................... W oolen good s.................................................... Miscellaneous..................................................... Dec. 1926 , from Dec. 1925 + 2 5 .3 + 1 2 .7 + 1 2 .6 + 1 2 .2 + 1 2 .1 + 1 1 .3 + 8 .8 + 8 .2 + 6 .1 + 4 .9 + 3 .8 + 3 .6 + 1 .6 + 1 .2 + 0 .9 — 2 .2 — 3 .6 — 19.5 — 1 .2 Year 1926 from Year 1925 Dec. 31, 1926 from Dec. 31, 1925 Year 1926 from Year 1925 + 9 .4 + 1 4 .0 + 5.1 + 1 5 .0 + 8 .2 + 5 .4 + 6 .5 + 1 1 .8 + 6 .4 + 3.1 + 4 .7 + 1 1 .4 + 7 .2 + 3 .4 + 2 .3 — 0 .4 — 26.9 — 24.1 — 2 .7 — 0 .3 + 3 .6 + 6 .2 — 14.2 — 2 .9 — 2 .9 + 3 .0 — 5 .4 — 6 .3 + 4 .9 + 5 .6 + 1 .8 — 0 .7 — 0 .7 — 5 .7 — 6 .5 — 7 .4 — 4 4.5 — 15.3 — 0.1 + 7 .2 + 5 .4 + 1.4 + 1.6 — 5 .9 — 0 .2 + 4 .2 + 7 .7 — 4 .4 + 3 .7 — 0 .1 + 4 .7 + 4 .8 — 3 .4 — 1.4 — 6 .3 — 29.9 — 10.3 CANDY Total Sales and Number of Units Operated by Chain Store Systems in 1926 Compared with 1925. New stores opened ordinarily have smaller sales fo r some time than the established units. Consequently in variety and grocery chains where the opening o f new units proceeded less rapidly than in 1925, sales per store averaged larger in 1926, and the increase in total sales was larger than in the number o f stores operated. In drug, tobacco, and candy chains, the opening of new stores was more rapid in 1926 than in 1925, sales per store averaged smaller, and the increase in total sales was smaller than in the number o f units operated. Percentage Change December 1926 from December 1925 Percentage Change Year 1926 from Year 1925 Type of Store Number of Stores V ariety............................................... Total Sales Sales per Store Total Sales Sales per Store + 1 2 .9 + 3 0 .6 + 9 .0 + 1 0 .4 + 7 .7 + 5 .4 + 4 .7 + 8 .8 + 2 5 .2 + 1 9 .7 + 1 7 .5 + 1 4 .6 + 9 .0 + 4 .8 + 2 .4 + 1 4 .2 + 1 0 .9 — 8 .4 + 7 .9 + 3 .9 + 1.1 — 0 .5 — 2 .2 + 4 .9 + 2 5 .2 + 2 0 .8 + 2 1 .8 + 6 .1 + 9 .3 + 8 .6 + 4 .1 + 1 7 .4 + 8 .2 — 2 .8 + 6 .7 — 6 .6 + 2 .7 — 1 .6 — 10.2 + 3 .5
